Beyond Group-Threat: Temporal Dynamics of International Migration and Linkages to Anti-Foreigner Sentiment

PubMed Central

DeWaard, Jack

2014-01-01

Prior research on the association between country-level patterns of international migration and anti-foreigner sentiment shows that larger foreign-born concentrations increase perceptions of threat among native-born individuals in receiving countries, which, in turn, give rise to exclusionary preferences. While recent work has assembled a list of limiting conditions that shape the strength of this association, I argue that these efforts are premature because they are based on a narrow way of conceptualising and measuring international migration. In contrast to concepts and measures privileging the size of the foreign-born population in receiving countries, I draw from other literatures highlighting the temporal dynamics of migration. In considering the role of the temporal dynamics of international migration in explaining variation in anti-foreigner sentiment, the question is whether and how the temporal stability of the foreign-born population in receiving countries matters. My results suggest that it does. The size and temporal stability of the foreign-born population play opposing roles in aggravating and ameliorating anti-foreigner sentiment, respectively, with each operating via different pathways at the individual level. My work thus breaks new ground by challenging existing theoretical constructs and operationalisations in the group-threat literature. PMID:26146481

Imaging of vaporised sub-micron phase change contrast agents with high frame rate ultrasound and optics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Shengtao; Zhang, Ge; Jamburidze, Akaki; Chee, Melisse; Hau Leow, Chee; Garbin, Valeria; Tang, Meng-Xing

2018-03-01

Phase-change ultrasound contrast agent (PCCA), or nanodroplet, shows promise as an alternative to the conventional microbubble agent over a wide range of diagnostic applications. Meanwhile, high-frame-rate (HFR) ultrasound imaging with microbubbles enables unprecedented temporal resolution compared to traditional contrast-enhanced ultrasound imaging. The combination of HFR ultrasound imaging and PCCAs can offer the opportunity to observe and better understand PCCA behaviour after vaporisation captures the fast phenomenon at a high temporal resolution. In this study, we utilised HFR ultrasound at frame rates in the kilohertz range (5-20 kHz) to image native and size-selected PCCA populations immediately after vaporisation in vitro within clinical acoustic parameters. The size-selected PCCAs through filtration are shown to preserve a sub-micron-sized (mean diameter  <  200 nm) population without micron-sized outliers (>1 µm) that originate from native PCCA emulsion. The results demonstrate imaging signals with different amplitudes and temporal features compared to that of microbubbles. Compared with the microbubbles, both the B-mode and pulse-inversion (PI) signals from the vaporised PCCA populations were reduced significantly in the first tens of milliseconds, while only the B-mode signals from the PCCAs were recovered during the next 400 ms, suggesting significant changes to the size distribution of the PCCAs after vaporisation. It is also shown that such recovery in signal over time is not evident when using size-selective PCCAs. Furthermore, it was found that signals from the vaporised PCCA populations are affected by the amplitude and frame rate of the HFR ultrasound imaging. Using high-speed optical camera observation (30 kHz), we observed a change in particle size in the vaporised PCCA populations exposed to the HFR ultrasound imaging pulses. These findings can further the understanding of PCCA behaviour under HFR ultrasound imaging.

Human cranial anatomy and the differential preservation of population history and climate signatures.

PubMed

Harvati, Katerina; Weaver, Timothy D

2006-12-01

Cranial morphology is widely used to reconstruct evolutionary relationships, but its reliability in reflecting phylogeny and population history has been questioned. Some cranial regions, particularly the face and neurocranium, are believed to be influenced by the environment and prone to convergence. Others, such as the temporal bone, are thought to reflect more accurately phylogenetic relationships. Direct testing of these hypotheses was not possible until the advent of large genetic data sets. The few relevant studies in human populations have had intriguing but possibly conflicting results, probably partly due to methodological differences and to the small numbers of populations used. Here we use three-dimensional (3D) geometric morphometrics methods to test explicitly the ability of cranial shape, size, and relative position/orientation of cranial regions to track population history and climate. Morphological distances among 13 recent human populations were calculated from four 3D landmark data sets, respectively reflecting facial, neurocranial, and temporal bone shape; shape and relative position; overall cranial shape; and centroid sizes. These distances were compared to neutral genetic and climatic distances among the same, or closely matched, populations. Results indicate that neurocranial and temporal bone shape track neutral genetic distances, while facial shape reflects climate; centroid size shows a weak association with climatic variables; and relative position/orientation of cranial regions does not appear correlated with any of these factors. Because different cranial regions preserve population history and climate signatures differentially, caution is suggested when using cranial anatomy for phylogenetic reconstruction. Copyright (c) 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Population Size Predicts Lexical Diversity, but so Does the Mean Sea Level --Why It Is Important to Correctly Account for the Structure of Temporal Data.

PubMed

Koplenig, Alexander; Müller-Spitzer, Carolin

2016-01-01

In order to demonstrate why it is important to correctly account for the (serial dependent) structure of temporal data, we document an apparently spectacular relationship between population size and lexical diversity: for five out of seven investigated languages, there is a strong relationship between population size and lexical diversity of the primary language in this country. We show that this relationship is the result of a misspecified model that does not consider the temporal aspect of the data by presenting a similar but nonsensical relationship between the global annual mean sea level and lexical diversity. Given the fact that in the recent past, several studies were published that present surprising links between different economic, cultural, political and (socio-)demographical variables on the one hand and cultural or linguistic characteristics on the other hand, but seem to suffer from exactly this problem, we explain the cause of the misspecification and show that it has profound consequences. We demonstrate how simple transformation of the time series can often solve problems of this type and argue that the evaluation of the plausibility of a relationship is important in this context. We hope that our paper will help both researchers and reviewers to understand why it is important to use special models for the analysis of data with a natural temporal ordering.

Extinction phase transitions in a model of ecological and evolutionary dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barghathi, Hatem; Tackkett, Skye; Vojta, Thomas

2017-07-01

We study the non-equilibrium phase transition between survival and extinction of spatially extended biological populations using an agent-based model. We especially focus on the effects of global temporal fluctuations of the environmental conditions, i.e., temporal disorder. Using large-scale Monte-Carlo simulations of up to 3 × 107 organisms and 105 generations, we find the extinction transition in time-independent environments to be in the well-known directed percolation universality class. In contrast, temporal disorder leads to a highly unusual extinction transition characterized by logarithmically slow population decay and enormous fluctuations even for large populations. The simulations provide strong evidence for this transition to be of exotic infinite-noise type, as recently predicted by a renormalization group theory. The transition is accompanied by temporal Griffiths phases featuring a power-law dependence of the life time on the population size.

Temporal, spatial, and body size effects on growth rates of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in the Northwest Atlantic

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bjorndal, Karen A.; Schroeder, Barbara A.; Foley, Allen M.; Witherington, Blair E.; Bresette, Michael; Clark, David; Herren, Richard M.; Arendt, Michael D.; Schmid, Jeffrey R.; Meylan, Anne B.; Meylan, Peter A.; Provancha, Jane A.; Hart, Kristen M.; Lamont, Margaret M.; Carthy, Raymond R.; Bolten, Alan B.

2013-01-01

In response to a call from the US National Research Council for research programs to combine their data to improve sea turtle population assessments, we analyzed somatic growth data for Northwest Atlantic (NWA) loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) from 10 research programs. We assessed growth dynamics over wide ranges of geography (9–33°N latitude), time (1978–2012), and body size (35.4–103.3 cm carapace length). Generalized additive models revealed significant spatial and temporal variation in growth rates and a significant decline in growth rates with increasing body size. Growth was more rapid in waters south of the USA (<24°N) than in USA waters. Growth dynamics in southern waters in the NWA need more study because sample size was small. Within USA waters, the significant spatial effect in growth rates of immature loggerheads did not exhibit a consistent latitudinal trend. Growth rates declined significantly from 1997 through 2007 and then leveled off or increased. During this same interval, annual nest counts in Florida declined by 43 % (Witherington et al. in Ecol Appl 19:30–54, 2009) before rebounding. Whether these simultaneous declines reflect responses in productivity to a common environmental change should be explored to determine whether somatic growth rates can help interpret population trends based on annual counts of nests or nesting females. Because of the significant spatial and temporal variation in growth rates, population models of NWA loggerheads should avoid employing growth data from restricted spatial or temporal coverage to calculate demographic metrics such as age at sexual maturity.

Population structure and effective/census population size ratio in threatened three-spined stickleback populations from an isolated river basin in northwest Spain.

PubMed

Pérez-Figueroa, A; Fernández, C; Amaro, R; Hermida, M; San Miguel, E

2015-08-01

Variability at 20 microsatellite loci was examined to assess the population genetic structure, gene flow, and effective population size (N(e)) in three populations of three-spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) from the upper basin of the Miño River in Galicia, NW Spain, where this species is threatened. The three populations showed similar levels of genetic diversity. There is a significant genetic differentiation between the three populations, but also significant gene flow. N(e) estimates based on linkage disequilibrium yielded values of 355 for the Miño River population and 241 and 311 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively, although we expect that these are overestimates. N(e) estimates based on temporal methods, considering gene flow or not, for the tributaries yielded values of 30-56 and 47-56 for the Rato and Guisande Rivers, respectively. Estimated census size (N(c)) for the Rato River was 880 individuals. This yielded a N(e)/N(c) estimate of 3-6 % for temporal estimation of N(e), which is within the empirical range observed in freshwater fishes. We suggest that the three populations analyzed have a sufficient level of genetic diversity with some genetic structure. Additionally, the absence of physical barriers suggests that conservation efforts and monitoring should focus in the whole basin as a unit.

cloncase: Estimation of sex frequency and effective population size by clonemate resampling in partially clonal organisms.

PubMed

Ali, Sajid; Soubeyrand, Samuel; Gladieux, Pierre; Giraud, Tatiana; Leconte, Marc; Gautier, Angélique; Mboup, Mamadou; Chen, Wanquan; de Vallavieille-Pope, Claude; Enjalbert, Jérôme

2016-07-01

Inferring reproductive and demographic parameters of populations is crucial to our understanding of species ecology and evolutionary potential but can be challenging, especially in partially clonal organisms. Here, we describe a new and accurate method, cloncase, for estimating both the rate of sexual vs. asexual reproduction and the effective population size, based on the frequency of clonemate resampling across generations. Simulations showed that our method provides reliable estimates of sex frequency and effective population size for a wide range of parameters. The cloncase method was applied to Puccinia striiformis f.sp. tritici, a fungal pathogen causing stripe/yellow rust, an important wheat disease. This fungus is highly clonal in Europe but has been suggested to recombine in Asia. Using two temporally spaced samples of P. striiformis f.sp. tritici in China, the estimated sex frequency was 75% (i.e. three-quarter of individuals being sexually derived during the yearly sexual cycle), indicating strong contribution of sexual reproduction to the life cycle of the pathogen in this area. The inferred effective population size of this partially clonal organism (Nc  = 998) was in good agreement with estimates obtained using methods based on temporal variations in allelic frequencies. The cloncase estimator presented herein is the first method allowing accurate inference of both sex frequency and effective population size from population data without knowledge of recombination or mutation rates. cloncase can be applied to population genetic data from any organism with cyclical parthenogenesis and should in particular be very useful for improving our understanding of pest and microbial population biology. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Life-history strategies associated with local population variability confer regional stability.

PubMed

Pribil, Stanislav; Houlahan, Jeff E

2003-07-07

A widely held ecological tenet is that, at the local scale, populations of K-selected species (i.e. low fecundity, long lifespan and large body size) will be less variable than populations of r-selected species (i.e. high fecundity, short lifespan and small body size). We examined the relationship between long-term population trends and life-history attributes for 185 bird species in the Czech Republic and found that, at regional spatial scales and over moderate temporal scales (100-120 years), K-selected bird species were more likely to show both large increases and decreases in population size than r-selected species. We conclude that life-history attributes commonly associated with variable populations at the local scale, confer stability at the regional scale.

Reproductive responses to spatial and temporal prey availability in a coastal Arctic fox population.

PubMed

Eide, Nina E; Stien, Audun; Prestrud, Pål; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Fuglei, Eva

2012-05-01

1. Input of external subsidies in the Arctic may have substantial effects on predator populations that otherwise would have been limited by low local primary productivity. 2. We explore life-history traits, age-specific fecundity, litter sizes and survival, and the population dynamics of an Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) population to explore the influence of the spatial distribution and temporal availability of its main prey; including both resident and migrating (external) prey resources. 3. This study reveals that highly predictable cross-boundary subsidies from the marine food web, acting through seasonal access to seabirds, sustain larger local Arctic fox populations. Arctic fox dens located close to the coast in Svalbard were found to have higher occupancy rates, as expected from both high availability and high temporal and spatial predictability of prey resources (temporally stable external subsidies). Whereas the occupancy rate of inland dens varied between years in relation to the abundance of reindeer carcasses (temporally varying resident prey). 4. With regard to demography, juvenile Arctic foxes in Svalbard have lower survival rates and a high age of first reproduction compared with other populations. We suggest this may be caused by a lack of unoccupied dens and a saturated population. © 2011 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Effects of temporal fluctuation in population processes of intertidal Lanice conchilega (Pallas, 1766) aggregations on its ecosystem engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alves, Renata M. S.; Vanaverbeke, Jan; Bouma, Tjeerd J.; Guarini, Jean-Marc; Vincx, Magda; Van Colen, Carl

2017-03-01

Ecosystem engineers contribute to ecosystem functioning by regulating key environmental attributes, such as habitat availability and sediment biogeochemistry. While autogenic engineers can increase habitat complexity passively and provide physical protection to other species, allogenic engineers can regulate sediment oxygenation and biogeochemistry through bioturbation and/or bioirrigation. Their effects rely on the physical attributes of the engineer and/or its biogenic constructs, such as abundance and/or size. The present study focused on tube aggregations of a sessile, tube-building polychaete that engineers marine sediments, Lanice conchilega. Its tube aggregations modulate water flow by dissipating energy, influencing sedimentary processes and increasing particle retention. These effects can be influenced by temporal fluctuations in population demographic processes. Presently, we investigated the relationship between population processes and ecosystem engineering through an in-situ survey (1.5 years) of L. conchilega aggregations at the sandy beach of Boulogne-sur-Mer (France). We (1) evaluated temporal patterns in population structure, and (2) investigated how these are related to the ecosystem engineering of L. conchilega on marine sediments. During our survey, we assessed tube density, demographic structure, and sediment properties (surficial chl-a, EPS, TOM, median and mode grain size, sorting, and mud and water content) on a monthly basis for 12 intertidal aggregations. We found that the population was mainly composed by short-lived (6-10 months), small-medium individuals. Mass mortality severely reduced population density during winter. However the population persisted, likely due to recruits from other populations, which are associated to short- and long-term population dynamics. Two periods of recruitment were identified: spring/summer and autumn. Population density was highest during the spring recruitment and significantly affected several environmental properties (i.e. EPS, TOM, mode grain size, mud and water content), suggesting that demographic processes may be responsible for periods of pronounced ecosystem engineering with densities of approx. 30 000 ind·m-2.

The use of genetics for the management of a recovering population: temporal assessment of migratory peregrine falcons in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Johnson, Jeff A.; Talbot, Sandra L.; Sage, George K.; Burnham, Kurt K.; Brown, Joseph W.; Maechtle, Tom L.; Seegar, William S.; Yates, Michael A.; Anderson, Bud; Mindell, David P.

2010-01-01

Background:Our ability to monitor populations or species that were once threatened or endangered and in the process of recovery is enhanced by using genetic methods to assess overall population stability and size over time. This can be accomplished most directly by obtaining genetic measures from temporally-spaced samples that reflect the overall stability of the population as given by changes in genetic diversity levels (allelic richness and heterozygosity), degree of population differentiation (FST and DEST), and effective population size (Ne). The primary goal of any recovery effort is to produce a long-term self-sustaining population, and these measures provide a metric by which we can gauge our progress and help make important management decisions. Methodology/Principal Findings:The peregrine falcon in North America (Falco peregrinus tundrius and anatum) was delisted in 1994 and 1999, respectively, and its abundance will be monitored by the species Recovery Team every three years until 2015. Although the United States Fish and Wildlife Service makes a distinction between tundrius and anatum subspecies, our genetic results based on eleven microsatellite loci, including those from Brown et al. (2007), suggest no differentiation and warrant delineation of a subspecies in its northern latitudinal distribution from Alaska through Canada into Greenland. Using temporal samples collected at Padre Island, Texas during migration (seven temporal time periods between 1985-2007), no significant differences in genetic diversity or significant population differentiation in allele frequencies between time periods were observed and were indistinguishable from those obtained from tundrius/anatum breeding locations throughout their northern distribution. Estimates of harmonic mean Ne were variable and imprecise, but always greater than 500 when employing multiple temporal genetic methods. These results, including those from simulations to assess the power of each method to estimate Ne, suggest a stable population consistent with data from field-based monitoring indicating that this species is stable or continuing to increase in abundance. Therefore, historic and continuing efforts to prevent the extinction of the peregrine falcon in North America appear successful, further highlighting the importance of archiving samples for continual assessment of population recovery and long-term viability.

Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Scaling Properties of Human Settlements (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Small, C.; Milesi, C.; Elvidge, C.; Baugh, K.; Henebry, G. M.; Nghiem, S. V.

2013-12-01

Growth and evolution of cities and smaller settlements is usually studied in the context of population and other socioeconomic variables. While this is logical in the sense that settlements are groups of humans engaged in socioeconomic processes, our means of collecting information about spatio-temporal distributions of population and socioeconomic variables often lack the spatial and temporal resolution to represent the processes at scales which they are known to occur. Furthermore, metrics and definitions often vary with country and through time. However, remote sensing provides globally consistent, synoptic observations of several proxies for human settlement at spatial and temporal resolutions sufficient to represent the evolution of settlements over the past 40 years. We use several independent but complementary proxies for anthropogenic land cover to quantify spatio-temporal (ST) evolution and scaling properties of human settlements globally. In this study we begin by comparing land cover and night lights in 8 diverse settings - each spanning gradients of population density and degree of land surface modification. Stable anthropogenic night light is derived from multi-temporal composites of emitted luminance measured by the VIIRS and DMSP-OLS sensors. Land cover is represented as mixtures of sub-pixel fractions of rock, soil and impervious Substrates, Vegetation and Dark surfaces (shadow, water and absorptive materials) estimated from Landsat imagery with > 94% accuracy. Multi-season stability and variability of land cover fractions effectively distinguishes between spectrally similar land covers that corrupt thematic classifications based on single images. We find that temporal stability of impervious substrates combined with persistent shadow cast between buildings results in temporally stable aggregate reflectance across seasons at the 30 m scale of a Landsat pixel. Comparison of night light brightness with land cover composition, stability and variability yields several consistent relationships that persist across a variety of settlement types and physical environments. We use the multiple threshold method of Small et al (2011) to represent a continuum of settlement density by segmenting both night light brightness and multi-season land cover characteristics. Rank-size distributions of spatially contiguous segments quantify scaling and connectivity of land cover. Spatial and temporal evolution of rank-size distributions is consistent with power laws as suggested by Zipf's Law for city size based on population. However, unlike Zipf's Law, the observed distributions persist to global scales in which the larger agglomerations are much larger than individual cities. The scaling relations observed extend from the scale of cities and smaller settlements up to vast spatial networks of interconnected settlements.

Ecological drivers of group living in two populations of the communally rearing rodent, Octodon degus

PubMed Central

Sobrero, Raúl; Quirici, Verónica; Castro, Rodrigo A.; Tolhuysen, Liliana Ortiz; Vargas, Francisco; Burger, Joseph Robert; Quispe, René; Villavicencio, Camila P.; Vásquez, Rodrigo A.; Hayes, Loren D.

2012-01-01

Intraspecific variation in sociality is thought to reflect a trade-off between current fitness benefits and costs that emerge from individuals' decision to join or leave groups. Since those benefits and costs may be influenced by ecological conditions, ecological variation remains a major, ultimate cause of intraspecific variation in sociality. Intraspecific comparisons of mammalian sociality across populations facing different environmental conditions have not provided a consistent relationship between ecological variation and group-living. Thus, we studied two populations of the communally rearing rodent Octodon degus to determine how co-variation between sociality and ecology supports alternative ecological causes of group living. In particular, we examined how variables linked to predation risk, thermal conditions, burrowing costs, and food availability predicted temporal and population variation in sociality. Our study revealed population and temporal variation in total group size and group composition that covaried with population and yearly differences in ecology. In particular, predation risk and burrowing costs are supported as drivers of this social variation in degus. Thermal differences, food quantity and quality were not significant predictors of social group size. In contrast to between populations, social variation within populations was largely uncoupled from ecological differences. PMID:22344477

Spatio-temporal dynamics of a fish predator: Density-dependent and hydrographic effects on Baltic Sea cod population

PubMed Central

Bartolino, Valerio; Tian, Huidong; Bergström, Ulf; Jounela, Pekka; Aro, Eero; Dieterich, Christian; Meier, H. E. Markus; Cardinale, Massimiliano; Bland, Barbara

2017-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms of spatial population dynamics is crucial for the successful management of exploited species and ecosystems. However, the underlying mechanisms of spatial distribution are generally complex due to the concurrent forcing of both density-dependent species interactions and density-independent environmental factors. Despite the high economic value and central ecological importance of cod in the Baltic Sea, the drivers of its spatio-temporal population dynamics have not been analytically investigated so far. In this paper, we used an extensive trawl survey dataset in combination with environmental data to investigate the spatial dynamics of the distribution of the Eastern Baltic cod during the past three decades using Generalized Additive Models. The results showed that adult cod distribution was mainly affected by cod population size, and to a minor degree by small-scale hydrological factors and the extent of suitable reproductive areas. As population size decreases, the cod population concentrates to the southern part of the Baltic Sea, where the preferred more marine environment conditions are encountered. Using the fitted models, we predicted the Baltic cod distribution back to the 1970s and a temporal index of cod spatial occupation was developed. Our study will contribute to the management and conservation of this important resource and of the ecosystem where it occurs, by showing the forces shaping its spatial distribution and therefore the potential response of the population to future exploitation and environmental changes. PMID:28207804

IN-STREAM AND WATERSHED PREDICTORS OF GENETIC DIVERSITY, EFFECTIVE POPULATION SIZE AND IMMIGRATION ACROSS RIVER-STREAM NETWORKS

EPA Science Inventory

The influence of spatial processes on population dynamics within river-stream networks is poorly understood. Utilizing spatially explicit analyses of temporal genetic variance, we examined whether persistence of Central Stonerollers (Campostoma anomalum) reflects differences in h...

Population dynamics of Microtus pennsylvanicus in corridor-linked patches

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coffman, C.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Pollock, K.H.

2001-01-01

Corridors have become a key issue in the discussion of conservation planning: however, few empirical data exist on the use of corridors and their effects on population dynamics. The objective of this replicated, population level, capture-re-capture experiment on meadow voles was to estimate and compare population characteristics of voles between (1) corridor-linked fragments, (2) isolated or non-linked fragments, and (3) unfragmented areas. We conducted two field experiments involving 22600 captures of 5700 individuals. In the first, the maintained corridor study, corridors were maintained at the time of fragmentation, and in the second, the constructed corridor study, we constructed corridors between patches that had been fragmented for some period of time. We applied multistate capture-recapture models with the robust design to estimate adult movement and survival rates, population size, temporal variation in population size, recruitment, and juvenile survival rates. Movement rates increased to a greater extent on constructed corridor-linked grids than on the unfragmented or non-linked fragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found significant differences in local survival on the treated (corridor-linked) grids compared to survival on the fragmented and unfragmented grids between the pre- and post-treatment periods. We found no clear pattern of treatment effects on population size or recruitment in either study. However, in both studies, we found that unfragmented grids were more stable than the fragmented grids based on lower temporal variability in population size. To our knowledge, this is the first experimental study demonstrating that corridors constructed between existing fragmented populations can indeed cause increases in movement and associated changes in demography, supporting the use of constructed corridors for this purpose in conservation biology.

Whooping cough dynamics in Chile (1932-2010): disease temporal fluctuations across a north-south gradient.

PubMed

Lima, Mauricio; Estay, Sergio A; Fuentes, Rodrigo; Rubilar, Paola; Broutin, Hélène; Chowell-Puente, Gerardo

2015-12-30

The spatial-temporal dynamics of Bordetella pertussis remains as a highly interesting case in infectious disease epidemiology. Despite large-scale vaccination programs in place for over 50 years around the world, frequent outbreaks are still reported in many countries. Here, we use annual time series of pertussis incidence from the thirteen different regions of Chile (1952-2010) to study the spatial-temporal dynamics of Pertussis. The period 1975-1995 was characterized by a strong 4 year cycle, while the last two decades of the study period (1990-2010) were characterized by disease resurgence without significant periodic patterns. During the first decades, differences in periodic patterns across regions can be explained by the differences in susceptible recruitment. The observed shift in periodicity from the period 1952-1974 to the period 1975-1995 across regions was relatively well predicted by the susceptible recruitment and population size. However, data on vaccination rates was not taken into account in this study. Our findings highlight how demography and population size have interacted with the immunization program in shaping periodicity along a unique latitudinal gradient. Widespread B. pertussis vaccination appears to lead to longer periodic dynamics, which is line with a reduction in B. pertussis transmission, but our findings indicate that regions characterized by both low birth rate and population size decreased in periodicity following immunization efforts.

Increasing frequency of low summer precipitation synchronizes dynamics and compromises metapopulation stability in the Glanville fritillary butterfly

PubMed Central

Tack, Ayco J. M.; Mononen, Tommi; Hanski, Ilkka

2015-01-01

Climate change is known to shift species' geographical ranges, phenologies and abundances, but less is known about other population dynamic consequences. Here, we analyse spatio-temporal dynamics of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in a network of 4000 dry meadows during 21 years. The results demonstrate two strong, related patterns: the amplitude of year-to-year fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole has increased, though there is no long-term trend in average abundance; and there is a highly significant increase in the level of spatial synchrony in population dynamics. The increased synchrony cannot be explained by increasing within-year spatial correlation in precipitation, the key environmental driver of population change, or in per capita growth rate. On the other hand, the frequency of drought during a critical life-history stage (early larval instars) has increased over the years, which is sufficient to explain the increasing amplitude and the expanding spatial synchrony in metapopulation dynamics. Increased spatial synchrony has the general effect of reducing long-term metapopulation viability even if there is no change in average metapopulation size. This study demonstrates how temporal changes in weather conditions can lead to striking changes in spatio-temporal population dynamics. PMID:25854888

Shades of grey; Assessing the contribution of the magno- and parvocellular systems to neural processing of the retinal input in the human visual system from the influence of neural population size and its discharge activity on the VEP.

PubMed

Marcar, Valentine L; Baselgia, Silvana; Lüthi-Eisenegger, Barbara; Jäncke, Lutz

2018-03-01

Retinal input processing in the human visual system involves a phasic and tonic neural response. We investigated the role of the magno- and parvocellular systems by comparing the influence of the active neural population size and its discharge activity on the amplitude and latency of four VEP components. We recorded the scalp electric potential of 20 human volunteers viewing a series of dartboard images presented as a pattern reversing and pattern on-/offset stimulus. These patterns were designed to vary both neural population size coding the temporal- and spatial luminance contrast property and the discharge activity of the population involved in a systematic manner. When the VEP amplitude reflected the size of the neural population coding the temporal luminance contrast property of the image, the influence of luminance contrast followed the contrast response function of the parvocellular system. When the VEP amplitude reflected the size of the neural population responding to the spatial luminance contrast property the image, the influence of luminance contrast followed the contrast response function of the magnocellular system. The latencies of the VEP components examined exhibited the same behavior across our stimulus series. This investigation demonstrates the complex interplay of the magno- and parvocellular systems on the neural response as captured by the VEP. It also demonstrates a linear relationship between stimulus property, neural response, and the VEP and reveals the importance of feedback projections in modulating the ongoing neural response. In doing so, it corroborates the conclusions of our previous study.

Occupancy in continuous habitat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Efford, Murray G.; Dawson, Deanna K.

2012-01-01

The probability that a site has at least one individual of a species ('occupancy') has come to be widely used as a state variable for animal population monitoring. The available statistical theory for estimation when detection is imperfect applies particularly to habitat patches or islands, although it is also used for arbitrary plots in continuous habitat. The probability that such a plot is occupied depends on plot size and home-range characteristics (size, shape and dispersion) as well as population density. Plot size is critical to the definition of occupancy as a state variable, but clear advice on plot size is missing from the literature on the design of occupancy studies. We describe models for the effects of varying plot size and home-range size on expected occupancy. Temporal, spatial, and species variation in average home-range size is to be expected, but information on home ranges is difficult to retrieve from species presence/absence data collected in occupancy studies. The effect of variable home-range size is negligible when plots are very large (>100 x area of home range), but large plots pose practical problems. At the other extreme, sampling of 'point' plots with cameras or other passive detectors allows the true 'proportion of area occupied' to be estimated. However, this measure equally reflects home-range size and density, and is of doubtful value for population monitoring or cross-species comparisons. Plot size is ill-defined and variable in occupancy studies that detect animals at unknown distances, the commonest example being unlimited-radius point counts of song birds. We also find that plot size is ill-defined in recent treatments of "multi-scale" occupancy; the respective scales are better interpreted as temporal (instantaneous and asymptotic) rather than spatial. Occupancy is an inadequate metric for population monitoring when it is confounded with home-range size or detection distance.

Quantifying Temporal Genomic Erosion in Endangered Species.

PubMed

Díez-Del-Molino, David; Sánchez-Barreiro, Fatima; Barnes, Ian; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Dalén, Love

2018-03-01

Many species have undergone dramatic population size declines over the past centuries. Although stochastic genetic processes during and after such declines are thought to elevate the risk of extinction, comparative analyses of genomic data from several endangered species suggest little concordance between genome-wide diversity and current population sizes. This is likely because species-specific life-history traits and ancient bottlenecks overshadow the genetic effect of recent demographic declines. Therefore, we advocate that temporal sampling of genomic data provides a more accurate approach to quantify genetic threats in endangered species. Specifically, genomic data from predecline museum specimens will provide valuable baseline data that enable accurate estimation of recent decreases in genome-wide diversity, increases in inbreeding levels, and accumulation of deleterious genetic variation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Relationship between Age Structure and Homicide Rates in the United States, 1970 to 1999

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Julie A.

2006-01-01

The nature of the temporal association between age structure and homicide rates between 1970 and 1999 is examined using U.S. county data. Specifically, the following questions are asked: (a) does the strong temporal association between the relative size of the young population and homicide rates demonstrated at the U.S. national level hold at a…

What tree-ring reconstruction tells us about conifer defoliator outbreaks

Treesearch

Ann M. Lynch

2012-01-01

Our ability to understand the dynamics of forest insect outbreaks is limited by the lack of long-term data describing the temporal and spatial trends of outbreaks, the size and long life span of host plants, and the impracticability of manipulative experiments at relevant temporal and spatial scales. Population responses can be studied across varying site and stand...

Factors determining the average body size of geographically separated Arctodiaptomus salinus (Daday, 1885) populations

PubMed Central

Anufriieva, Elena V.; Shadrin, Nickolai V.

2014-01-01

Arctodiaptomus salinus inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa. Based on our own data and that from the literature, we analyzed the influences of several factors on the intra- and inter-population variability of this species. A strong negative linear correlation between temperature and average body size in the Crimean and African populations was found, in which the parameters might be influenced by salinity. Meanwhile, asignificant negative correlation between female body size and the altitude of habitats was found by comparing body size in populations from different regions. Individuals from environments with highly varying abiotic parameters, e.g. temporary reservoirs, had a larger body size than individuals from permanent water bodies. The changes in average body mass in populations were at 11.4 times, whereas, those in individual metabolic activities were at 6.2 times. Moreover, two size groups of A. salinus in the Crimean and the Siberian lakes were observed. The ratio of female length to male length fluctuatedbetween 1.02 and 1.30. The average size of A. salinus in populations and its variations were determined by both genetic and environmental factors. However, the paritiesof these factors were unequal in either spatial or temporal scales. PMID:24668656

Factors determining the average body size of geographically separated Arctodiaptomus salinus (Daday, 1885) populations.

PubMed

Anufriieva, Elena V; Shadrin, Nickolai V

2014-03-01

Arctodiaptomus salinus inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa. Based on our own data and that from the literature, we analyzed the influences of several factors on the intra- and inter-population variability of this species. A strong negative linear correlation between temperature and average body size in the Crimean and African populations was found, in which the parameters might be influenced by salinity. Meanwhile, a significant negative correlation between female body size and the altitude of habitats was found by comparing body size in populations from different regions. Individuals from environments with highly varying abiotic parameters, e.g. temporary reservoirs, had a larger body size than individuals from permanent water bodies. The changes in average body mass in populations were at 11.4 times, whereas, those in individual metabolic activities were at 6.2 times. Moreover, two size groups of A. salinus in the Crimean and the Siberian lakes were observed. The ratio of female length to male length fluctuated between 1.02 and 1.30. The average size of A. salinus in populations and its variations were determined by both genetic and environmental factors. However, the parities of these factors were unequal in either spatial or temporal scales.

The Use of Genetics for the Management of a Recovering Population: Temporal Assessment of Migratory Peregrine Falcons in North America

PubMed Central

Johnson, Jeff A.; Talbot, Sandra L.; Sage, George K.; Burnham, Kurt K.; Brown, Joseph W.; Maechtle, Tom L.; Seegar, William S.; Yates, Michael A.; Anderson, Bud; Mindell, David P.

2010-01-01

Background Our ability to monitor populations or species that were once threatened or endangered and in the process of recovery is enhanced by using genetic methods to assess overall population stability and size over time. This can be accomplished most directly by obtaining genetic measures from temporally-spaced samples that reflect the overall stability of the population as given by changes in genetic diversity levels (allelic richness and heterozygosity), degree of population differentiation (F ST and D EST), and effective population size (N e). The primary goal of any recovery effort is to produce a long-term self-sustaining population, and these genetic measures provide a metric by which we can gauge our progress and help make important management decisions. Methodology/Principal Findings The peregrine falcon in North America (Falco peregrinus tundrius and anatum) was delisted in 1994 and 1999, respectively, and its abundance will be monitored by the species Recovery Team every three years until 2015. Although the United States Fish and Wildlife Service makes a distinction between tundrius and anatum subspecies, our genetic results based on eleven microsatellite loci suggest limited differentiation that can be attributed to an isolation by distance relationship and warrant no delineation of these two subspecies in its northern latitudinal distribution from Alaska through Canada into Greenland. Using temporal samples collected at Padre Island, Texas during migration (seven temporal time periods between 1985–2007), no significant differences in genetic diversity or significant population differentiation in allele frequencies between time periods were observed and were indistinguishable from those obtained from tundrius/anatum breeding locations throughout their northern distribution. Estimates of harmonic mean N e were variable and imprecise, but always greater than 500 when employing multiple temporal genetic methods. Conclusions/Significance These results, including those from simulations to assess the power of each method to estimate N e, suggest a stable or growing population, which is consistent with ongoing field-based monitoring surveys. Therefore, historic and continuing efforts to prevent the extinction of the peregrine falcon in North America appear successful with no indication of recent decline, at least from the northern latitude range-wide perspective. The results also further highlight the importance of archiving samples and their use for continual assessment of population recovery and long-term viability. PMID:21124969

Spatial and temporal variation in population genetic structure of wild Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) across Africa

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Reconstructing the evolutionary history of a species is challenging. It often depends not only on the past biogeographic and climatic events but also the contemporary and ecological factors, such as current connectivity and habitat heterogeneity. In fact, these factors might interact with each other and shape the current species distribution. However, to what extent the current population genetic structure reflects the past and the contemporary factors is largely unknown. Here we investigated spatio-temporal genetic structures of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) populations, across their natural distribution in Africa. While its large biogeographic distribution can cause genetic differentiation at the paleo-biogeographic scales, its restricted dispersal capacity might induce a strong genetic structure at micro-geographic scales. Results Using nine microsatellite loci and 350 samples from ten natural populations, we found the highest genetic differentiation among the three ichthyofaunal provinces and regions (Ethiopian, Nilotic and Sudano-Sahelian) (RST = 0.38 - 0.69). This result suggests the predominant effect of paleo-geographic events at macro-geographic scale. In addition, intermediate divergences were found between rivers and lakes within the regions, presumably reflecting relatively recent interruptions of gene flow between hydrographic basins (RST = 0.24 - 0.32). The lowest differentiations were observed among connected populations within a basin (RST = 0.015 in the Volta basin). Comparison of temporal sample series revealed subtle changes in the gene pools in a few generations (F = 0 - 0.053). The estimated effective population sizes were 23 - 143 and the estimated migration rate was moderate (m ~ 0.094 - 0.097) in the Volta populations. Conclusions This study revealed clear hierarchical patterns of the population genetic structuring of O. niloticus in Africa. The effects of paleo-geographic and climatic events were predominant at macro-geographic scale, and the significant effect of geographic connectivity was detected at micro-geographic scale. The estimated effective population size, the moderate level of dispersal and the rapid temporal change in genetic composition might reflect a potential effect of life history strategy on population dynamics. This hypothesis deserves further investigation. The dynamic pattern revealed at micro-geographic and temporal scales appears important from a genetic resource management as well as from a biodiversity conservation point of view. PMID:22151746

In vitro ovine articular chondrocyte proliferation: experiments and modelling.

PubMed

Mancuso, L; Liuzzo, M I; Fadda, S; Pisu, M; Cincotti, A; Arras, M; La Nasa, G; Concas, A; Cao, G

2010-06-01

This study focuses on analysis of in vitro cultures of chondrocytes from ovine articular cartilage. Isolated cells were seeded in Petri dishes, then expanded to confluence and phenotypically characterized by flow cytometry. The sigmoidal temporal profile of total counts was obtained by classic haemocytometry and corresponding cell size distributions were measured electronically using a Coulter Counter. A mathematical model recently proposed (1) was adopted for quantitative interpretation of these experimental data. The model is based on a 1-D (that is, mass-structured), single-staged population balance approach capable of taking into account contact inhibition at confluence. The model's parameters were determined by fitting measured total cell counts and size distributions. Model reliability was verified by predicting cell proliferation counts and corresponding size distributions at culture times longer than those used when tuning the model's parameters. It was found that adoption of cell mass as the intrinsic characteristic of a growing chondrocyte population enables sigmoidal temporal profiles of total counts in the Petri dish, as well as cell size distributions at 'balanced growth', to be adequately predicted.

Temporal genetic structure of a drone congregation area of the giant Asian honeybee ( Apis dorsata)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kraus, F. B.; Koeniger, N.; Tingek, S.; Moritz, R. F. A.

2005-12-01

The giant Asian honeybee ( Apis dorsata), like all other members of the genus Apis, has a complex mating system in which the queens and males (drones) mate at spatially defined drone congregation areas (DCAs). Here, we studied the temporal genetic structure of a DCA of A. dorsata over an 8-day time window by the genotyping of sampled drones with microsatellite markers. Analysis of the genotypic data revealed a significant genetic differentiation between 3 sampling days and indicated that the DCA was used by at least two subpopulations at all days in varying proportions. The estimation of the number of colonies which used the DCA ranged between 20 and 40 colonies per subpopulation, depending on the estimation procedure and population. The overall effective population size was estimated as high as N e=140. The DCA seems to counteract known tendencies of A. dorsata for inbreeding within colony aggregations by facilitating gene flow among subpopulations and increasing the effective population size.

Loss of genetic diversity in Culex quinquefasciatus targeted by a lymphatic filariasis vector control program in Recife, Brazil.

PubMed

Cartaxo, Marina F S; Ayres, Constância F J; Weetman, David

2011-09-01

Recife is one of the largest cities in north-eastern Brazil and is endemic for lymphatic filariasis transmitted by Culex quinquefasciatus. Since 2003 a control program has targeted mosquito larvae by elimination of breeding sites and bimonthly application of Bacillus sphaericus. To assess the impact of this program on the local vector population we monitored the genetic diversity and differentiation of Cx. quinquefasciatus using microsatellites and a B. sphaericus-resistance associated mutation (cqm1(REC)) over a 3-year period. We detected a significant but gradual decline in allelic diversity, which, coupled with subtle temporal genetic structure, suggests a major impact of the control program on the vector population. Selection on cqm1(REC) does not appear to be involved with loss of neutral diversity from the population, with no temporal trend in resistant allele frequency and no correlation with microsatellite differentiation. The evidence for short-term genetic drift we detected suggests a low ratio of effective population size: census population size for Cx. quinquefasciatus, perhaps coupled with strong geographically-restricted population structure. Spatial definition of populations will be an important step for success of an expanded vector control program. Copyright © 2011 Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Temporal variation in phenotypic and genotypic traits in two sockeye salmon populations, Tustumena Lake, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Woody, Carol Ann; Olsen, Jeffrey B.; Reynolds, Joel H.; Bentzen, Paul

2000-01-01

Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka in two tributary streams (about 20 km apart) of the same lake were compared for temporal variation in phenotypic (length, depth adjusted for length) and genotypic (six microsatellite loci) traits. Peak run time (July 16 versus 11 August) and run duration (43 versus 26 d) differed between streams. Populations were sampled twice, including an overlapping point in time. Divergence at microsatellite loci followed a temporal cline: Population sample groups collected at the same time were not different (F ST = 0), whereas those most separated in time were different (F ST = 0.011, P = 0.001). Although contemporaneous sample groups did not differ significantly in microsatellite genotypes (F ST = 0), phenotypic traits did differ significantly (MANOVA, P < 0.001). Fish from the larger stream were larger; fish from the smaller stream were smaller, suggesting differential fitness related to size. Results indicate run time differences among and within sockeye salmon populations may strongly influence levels of gene flow.

Effects of Freshwater Discharge in Sandy Beach Populations: The Mole Crab Emerita brasiliensis in Uruguay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lercari, D.; Defeo, O.

1999-10-01

Sandy beaches are ecosystems which are heavily affected by human activities. An example of this is freshwater discharges, which are known to change salinity, temperature and nutrient regimes and degrade nearshore environments. However, the effects of this kind of disturbance on sandy beach fauna have been little studied. This paper reports the spatial effects of a man-made freshwater canal discharge on the population structure, abundance and reproductive characteristics of the sandy beach mole crab Emerita brasiliensis. Along the 22 km of sandy beach sampled, the mole crab showed a marked longshore variability in population structure and abundance. Abundance of different population components (juveniles, males, females and ovigerous females) significantly decreased towards the canal. Population structure by sex and size, individual weight, fecundity and female maturity patterns at size also displayed a non-linear response to the distance from the freshwater discharge. Only the size structure of males did not follow this pattern. For males, spatial heterogeneity enhanced the detection of density-dependence at less disturbed sites. The authors conclude that artificial freshwater discharges could significantly influence the distribution, abundance and life-history traits of the biota of sandy beaches, and that further study of these ecosystems should include human activities as important factors affecting spatial and temporal trends. The need to consider different spatial and temporal scales in order to detect the effect of anthropogenically-driven impacts in sandy beach populations is stressed.

Reduced Genetic Diversity and Increased Structure in American Mink on the Swedish Coast following Invasive Species Control.

PubMed

Zalewski, Andrzej; Zalewska, Hanna; Lunneryd, Sven-Gunnar; André, Carl; Mikusiński, Grzegorz

2016-01-01

Eradication and population reductions are often used to mitigate the negative impacts of non-native invasive species on native biodiversity. However, monitoring the effectiveness of non-native species control programmes is necessary to evaluate the efficacy of these measures. Genetic monitoring could provide valuable insights into temporal changes in demographic, ecological, and evolutionary processes in invasive populations being subject to control programmes. Such programmes should cause a decrease in effective population size and/or in genetic diversity of the targeted non-native species and an increase in population genetic structuring over time. We used microsatellite DNA data from American mink (Neovison vison) to determine whether the removal of this predator on the Koster Islands archipelago and the nearby Swedish mainland affected genetic variation over six consecutive years of mink culling by trappers as part of a population control programme. We found that on Koster Islands allelic richness decreased (from on average 4.53 to 3.55), genetic structuring increased, and effective population size did not change. In contrast, the mink population from the Swedish coast showed no changes in genetic diversity or structure, suggesting the stability of this population over 6 years of culling. Effective population size did not change over time but was higher on the coast than on the islands across all years. Migration rates from the islands to the coast were almost two times higher than from the coast to the islands. Most migrants leaving the coast were localised on the southern edge of the archipelago, as expected from the direction of the sea current between the two sites. Genetic monitoring provided valuable information on temporal changes in the population of American mink suggesting that this approach can be used to evaluate and improve control programmes of invasive vertebrates.

Community- and population-level changes in diatom size structure in a subarctic lake over the last two centuries

PubMed Central

Kerrigan, Elizabeth A.; Irwin, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

Climate change over the last two centuries has been associated with significant shifts in diatom community structure in lakes from the high arctic to temperate latitudes. To test the hypotheses that recent climate warming selects for species of smaller size within communities and a decrease in the average size of species within populations, we quantified the size of individual diatom valves from 10 depths in a sediment core covering the last ∼200 years from a pristine subarctic lake. Over the last ∼200 years, changes in the relative abundance of species of different average size and changes in the average valve size of populations of species contribute equally to the changes in community size structure, but are often opposite in sign, compensating for one another and moderating temporal changes in community size structure. In the surface sediments that correspond to the recent decades when air temperatures have warmed, the mean size of valves in the diatom community has significantly decreased due to an increase in the proportion of smaller-sized planktonic diatom species. PMID:26157637

Stochastic environmental fluctuations drive epidemiology in experimental host–parasite metapopulations

PubMed Central

Duncan, Alison B.; Gonzalez, Andrew; Kaltz, Oliver

2013-01-01

Environmental fluctuations are important for parasite spread and persistence. However, the effects of the spatial and temporal structure of environmental fluctuations on host–parasite dynamics are not well understood. Temporal fluctuations can be random but positively autocorrelated, such that the environment is similar to the recent past (red noise), or random and uncorrelated with the past (white noise). We imposed red or white temporal temperature fluctuations on experimental metapopulations of Paramecium caudatum, experiencing an epidemic of the bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. Metapopulations (two subpopulations linked by migration) experienced fluctuations between stressful (5°C) and permissive (23°C) conditions following red or white temporal sequences. Spatial variation in temperature fluctuations was implemented by exposing subpopulations to the same (synchronous temperatures) or different (asynchronous temperatures) temporal sequences. Red noise, compared with white noise, enhanced parasite persistence. Despite this, red noise coupled with asynchronous temperatures allowed infected host populations to maintain sizes equivalent to uninfected populations. It is likely that this occurs because subpopulations in permissive conditions rescue declining subpopulations in stressful conditions. We show how patterns of temporal and spatial environmental fluctuations can impact parasite spread and host population abundance. We conclude that accurate prediction of parasite epidemics may require realistic models of environmental noise. PMID:23966645

Visual Processing of Object Velocity and Acceleration

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-12-13

more recently, Dr. Grzywacz’s applications of filtering models to the psychophysics of speed discrimination; 3) the McKee-Welch studies on the...population of spatio-temporally oriented filters to encode velocity. Dr. Grzywacz has attempted to reconcile his model with a variety of psychophysical...by many authors.23 In these models , the image is tectors have different sizes and spatial positions, but they all spatially and temporally filtered

A Temporal Perspective on the Interplay of Demography and Selection on Deleterious Variation in Humans

PubMed Central

Koch, Evan; Novembre, John

2017-01-01

When mutations have small effects on fitness, population size plays an important role in determining the amount and nature of deleterious genetic variation. The extent to which recent population size changes have impacted deleterious variation in humans has been a question of considerable interest and debate. An emerging consensus is that the Out-of-Africa bottleneck and subsequent growth events have been too short to cause meaningful differences in genetic load between populations; though changes in the number and average frequencies of deleterious variants have taken place. To provide more support for this view and to offer additional insight into the divergent evolution of deleterious variation across populations, we numerically solve time-inhomogeneous diffusion equations and study the temporal dynamics of the frequency spectra in models of population size change for modern humans. We observe how the response to demographic change differs by the strength of selection, and we then assess whether similar patterns are observed in exome sequence data from 33,370 and 5203 individuals of non-Finnish European and West African ancestry, respectively. Our theoretical results highlight how even simple summaries of the frequency spectrum can have complex responses to demographic change. These results support the finding that some apparent discrepancies between previous results have been driven by the behaviors of the precise summaries of deleterious variation. Further, our empirical results make clear the difficulty of inferring slight differences in frequency spectra using recent next-generation sequence data. PMID:28159863

Understanding Past Population Dynamics: Bayesian Coalescent-Based Modeling with Covariates

PubMed Central

Gill, Mandev S.; Lemey, Philippe; Bennett, Shannon N.; Biek, Roman; Suchard, Marc A.

2016-01-01

Effective population size characterizes the genetic variability in a population and is a parameter of paramount importance in population genetics and evolutionary biology. Kingman’s coalescent process enables inference of past population dynamics directly from molecular sequence data, and researchers have developed a number of flexible coalescent-based models for Bayesian nonparametric estimation of the effective population size as a function of time. Major goals of demographic reconstruction include identifying driving factors of effective population size, and understanding the association between the effective population size and such factors. Building upon Bayesian nonparametric coalescent-based approaches, we introduce a flexible framework that incorporates time-varying covariates that exploit Gaussian Markov random fields to achieve temporal smoothing of effective population size trajectories. To approximate the posterior distribution, we adapt efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms designed for highly structured Gaussian models. Incorporating covariates into the demographic inference framework enables the modeling of associations between the effective population size and covariates while accounting for uncertainty in population histories. Furthermore, it can lead to more precise estimates of population dynamics. We apply our model to four examples. We reconstruct the demographic history of raccoon rabies in North America and find a significant association with the spatiotemporal spread of the outbreak. Next, we examine the effective population size trajectory of the DENV-4 virus in Puerto Rico along with viral isolate count data and find similar cyclic patterns. We compare the population history of the HIV-1 CRF02_AG clade in Cameroon with HIV incidence and prevalence data and find that the effective population size is more reflective of incidence rate. Finally, we explore the hypothesis that the population dynamics of musk ox during the Late Quaternary period were related to climate change. [Coalescent; effective population size; Gaussian Markov random fields; phylodynamics; phylogenetics; population genetics. PMID:27368344

Spatiotemporal dynamics of Puumala hantavirus associated with its rodent host, Myodes glareolus

PubMed Central

Weber de Melo, Vanessa; Sheikh Ali, Hanan; Freise, Jona; Kühnert, Denise; Essbauer, Sandra; Mertens, Marc; Wanka, Konrad M; Drewes, Stephan; Ulrich, Rainer G; Heckel, Gerald

2015-01-01

Many viruses significantly impact human and animal health. Understanding the population dynamics of these viruses and their hosts can provide important insights for epidemiology and virus evolution. Puumala virus (PUUV) is a European hantavirus that may cause regional outbreaks of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in humans. Here, we analyzed the spatiotemporal dynamics of PUUV circulating in local populations of its rodent reservoir host, the bank vole (Myodes glareolus) during eight years. Phylogenetic and population genetic analyses of all three genome segments of PUUV showed strong geographical structuring at a very local scale. There was a high temporal turnover of virus strains in the local bank vole populations, but several virus strains persisted through multiple years. Phylodynamic analyses showed no significant changes in the local effective population sizes of PUUV, although vole numbers and virus prevalence fluctuated widely. Microsatellite data demonstrated also a temporally persisting subdivision between local vole populations, but these groups did not correspond to the subdivision in the virus strains. We conclude that restricted transmission between vole populations and genetic drift play important roles in shaping the genetic structure and temporal dynamics of PUUV in its natural host which has several implications for zoonotic risks of the human population. PMID:26136821

Climate and predation dominate juvenile and adult recruitment in a turtle with temperature-dependent sex determination.

PubMed

Schwanz, Lisa E; Spencer, Ricky-John; Bowden, Rachel M; Janzen, Fredric J

2010-10-01

Conditions experienced early in life can influence phenotypes in ecologically important ways, as exemplified by organisms with environmental sex determination. For organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), variation in nest temperatures induces phenotypic variation that could impact population growth rates. In environments that vary over space and time, how does this variation influence key demographic parameters (cohort sex ratio and hatchling recruitment) in early life stages of populations exhibiting TSD? We leverage a 17-year data set on a population of painted turtles, Chrysemys picta, to investigate how spatial variation in nest vegetation cover and temporal variation in climate influence early life-history demography. We found that spatial variation in nest cover strongly influenced nest temperature and sex ratio, but was not correlated with clutch size, nest predation, total nest failure, or hatching success. Temporal variation in climate influenced percentage of total nest failure and cohort sex ratio, but not depredation rate, mean clutch size, or mean hatching success. Total hatchling recruitment in a year was influenced primarily by temporal variation in climate-independent factors, number of nests constructed, and depredation rate. Recruitment of female hatchlings was determined by stochastic variation in nest depredation and annual climate and also by the total nest production. Overall population demography depends more strongly on annual variation in climate and predation than it does on the intricacies of nest-specific biology. Finally, we demonstrate that recruitment of female hatchlings translates into recruitment of breeding females into the population, thus linking climate (and other) effects on early life stages to adult demographics.

Environmental, biological and anthropogenic effects on grizzly bear body size: temporal and spatial considerations.

PubMed

Nielsen, Scott E; Cattet, Marc R L; Boulanger, John; Cranston, Jerome; McDermid, Greg J; Shafer, Aaron B A; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2013-09-08

Individual body growth is controlled in large part by the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of, and competition for, resources. Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos L.) are an excellent species for studying the effects of resource heterogeneity and maternal effects (i.e. silver spoon) on life history traits such as body size because their habitats are highly variable in space and time. Here, we evaluated influences on body size of grizzly bears in Alberta, Canada by testing six factors that accounted for spatial and temporal heterogeneity in environments during maternal, natal and 'capture' (recent) environments. After accounting for intrinsic biological factors (age, sex), we examined how body size, measured in mass, length and body condition, was influenced by: (a) population density; (b) regional habitat productivity; (c) inter-annual variability in productivity (including silver spoon effects); (d) local habitat quality; (e) human footprint (disturbances); and (f) landscape change. We found sex and age explained the most variance in body mass, condition and length (R(2) from 0.48-0.64). Inter-annual variability in climate the year before and of birth (silver spoon effects) had detectable effects on the three-body size metrics (R(2) from 0.04-0.07); both maternal (year before birth) and natal (year of birth) effects of precipitation and temperature were related with body size. Local heterogeneity in habitat quality also explained variance in body mass and condition (R(2) from 0.01-0.08), while annual rate of landscape change explained additional variance in body length (R(2) of 0.03). Human footprint and population density had no observed effect on body size. These results illustrated that body size patterns of grizzly bears, while largely affected by basic biological characteristics (age and sex), were also influenced by regional environmental gradients the year before, and of, the individual's birth thus illustrating silver spoon effects. The magnitude of the silver spoon effects was on par with the influence of contemporary regional habitat productivity, which showed that both temporal and spatial influences explain in part body size patterns in grizzly bears. Because smaller bears were found in colder and less-productive environments, we hypothesize that warming global temperatures may positively affect body mass of interior bears.

Acoustic Cluster Therapy: In Vitro and Ex Vivo Measurement of Activated Bubble Size Distribution and Temporal Dynamics.

PubMed

Healey, Andrew John; Sontum, Per Christian; Kvåle, Svein; Eriksen, Morten; Bendiksen, Ragnar; Tornes, Audun; Østensen, Jonny

2016-05-01

Acoustic cluster technology (ACT) is a two-component, microparticle formulation platform being developed for ultrasound-mediated drug delivery. Sonazoid microbubbles, which have a negative surface charge, are mixed with micron-sized perfluoromethylcyclopentane droplets stabilized with a positively charged surface membrane to form microbubble/microdroplet clusters. On exposure to ultrasound, the oil undergoes a phase change to the gaseous state, generating 20- to 40-μm ACT bubbles. An acoustic transmission technique is used to measure absorption and velocity dispersion of the ACT bubbles. An inversion technique computes bubble size population with temporal resolution of seconds. Bubble populations are measured both in vitro and in vivo after activation within the cardiac chambers of a dog model, with catheter-based flow through an extracorporeal measurement flow chamber. Volume-weighted mean diameter in arterial blood after activation in the left ventricle was 22 μm, with no bubbles >44 μm in diameter. After intravenous administration, 24.4% of the oil is activated in the cardiac chambers. Copyright © 2016 World Federation for Ultrasound in Medicine & Biology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Use of Genetics for the Management of a Recovering Population: Temporal Assessment of Migratory Peregrine Falcons in North America

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-11-01

total breeding population size for both F. p. tundrius and F. p. anatum is between 4,300 and 10,400 [31]; considering immature and floater (non... floaters ) can outnumber the actual breeders in some areas by severalfold [13,139], and the numbers of migrants recorded at specific monitoring sites

Spatio-temporal population structuring and genetic diversity retention in depleted Atlantic Bluefin tuna of the Mediterranean Sea

PubMed Central

Riccioni, Giulia; Landi, Monica; Ferrara, Giorgia; Milano, Ilaria; Cariani, Alessia; Zane, Lorenzo; Sella, Massimo; Barbujani, Guido; Tinti, Fausto

2010-01-01

Fishery genetics have greatly changed our understanding of population dynamics and structuring in marine fish. In this study, we show that the Atlantic Bluefin tuna (ABFT, Thunnus thynnus), an oceanic predatory species exhibiting highly migratory behavior, large population size, and high potential for dispersal during early life stages, displays significant genetic differences over space and time, both at the fine and large scales of variation. We compared microsatellite variation of contemporary (n = 256) and historical (n = 99) biological samples of ABFTs of the central-western Mediterranean Sea, the latter dating back to the early 20th century. Measures of genetic differentiation and a general heterozygote deficit suggest that differences exist among population samples, both now and 96–80 years ago. Thus, ABFTs do not represent a single panmictic population in the Mediterranean Sea. Statistics designed to infer changes in population size, both from current and past genetic variation, suggest that some Mediterranean ABFT populations, although still not severely reduced in their genetic potential, might have suffered from demographic declines. The short-term estimates of effective population size are straddled on the minimum threshold (effective population size = 500) indicated to maintain genetic diversity and evolutionary potential across several generations in natural populations. PMID:20080643

Spatiotemporal distribution of Holocene populations in North America

PubMed Central

Chaput, Michelle A.; Kriesche, Björn; Betts, Matthew; Martindale, Andrew; Kulik, Rafal; Schmidt, Volker; Gajewski, Konrad

2015-01-01

As the Cordilleran and Laurentide Ice Sheets retreated, North America was colonized by human populations; however, the spatial patterns of subsequent population growth are unclear. Temporal frequency distributions of aggregated radiocarbon (14C) dates are used as a proxy of population size and can be used to track this expansion. The Canadian Archaeological Radiocarbon Database contains more than 35,000 14C dates and is used in this study to map the spatiotemporal demographic changes of Holocene populations in North America at a continental scale for the past 13,000 y. We use the kernel method, which converts the spatial distribution of 14C dates into estimates of population density at 500-y intervals. The resulting maps reveal temporally distinct, dynamic patterns associated with paleodemographic trends that correspond well to genetic, archaeological, and ethnohistoric evidence of human occupation. These results have implications for hypothesizing and testing migration routes into and across North America as well as the relative influence of North American populations on the evolution of the North American ecosystem. PMID:26351683

Physiological Stress and Refuge Behavior by African Elephants

PubMed Central

Jachowski, David S.; Slotow, Rob; Millspaugh, Joshua J.

2012-01-01

Physiological stress responses allow individuals to adapt to changes in their status or surroundings, but chronic exposure to stressors could have detrimental effects. Increased stress hormone secretion leads to short-term escape behavior; however, no studies have assessed the potential of longer-term escape behavior, when individuals are in a chronic physiological state. Such refuge behavior is likely to take two forms, where an individual or population restricts its space use patterns spatially (spatial refuge hypothesis), or alters its use of space temporally (temporal refuge hypothesis). We tested the spatial and temporal refuge hypotheses by comparing space use patterns among three African elephant populations maintaining different fecal glucocorticoid metabolite (FGM) concentrations. In support of the spatial refuge hypothesis, the elephant population that maintained elevated FGM concentrations (iSimangaliso) used 20% less of its reserve than did an elephant population with lower FGM concentrations (Pilanesberg) in a reserve of similar size, and 43% less than elephants in the smaller Phinda reserve. We found mixed support for the temporal refuge hypothesis; home range sizes in the iSimangaliso population did not differ by day compared to nighttime, but elephants used areas within their home ranges differently between day and night. Elephants in all three reserves generally selected forest and woodland habitats over grasslands, but elephants in iSimangaliso selected exotic forest plantations over native habitat types. Our findings suggest that chronic stress is associated with restricted space use and altered habitat preferences that resemble a facultative refuge behavioral response. Elephants can maintain elevated FGM levels for ≥6 years following translocation, during which they exhibit refuge behavior that is likely a result of human disturbance and habitat conditions. Wildlife managers planning to translocate animals, or to initiate other management activities that could result in chronic stress responses, should consider the potential for, and consequences of, refuge behavior. PMID:22384079

Sulfolobus islandicus meta-populations in Yellowstone National Park hot springs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Kate M.; Kouris, Angela; England, Whitney; Anderson, Rika E.; McCleskey, R. Blaine; Nordstrom, D. Kirk; Whitaker, Rachel J.

2017-01-01

Abiotic and biotic forces shape the structure and evolution of microbial populations. We investigated forces that shape the spatial and temporal population structure of Sulfolobus islandicus by comparing geochemical and molecular analysis from seven hot springs in five regions sampled over 3 years in Yellowstone National Park. Through deep amplicon sequencing, we uncovered 148 unique alleles at two loci whose relative frequency provides clear evidence for independent populations in different hot springs. Although geography controls regional geochemical composition and population differentiation, temporal changes in population were not explained by corresponding variation in geochemistry. The data suggest that the influence of extinction, bottleneck events and/or selective sweeps within a spring and low migration between springs shape these populations. We suggest that hydrologic events such as storm events and surface snowmelt runoff destabilize smaller hot spring environments with smaller populations and result in high variation in the S. islandicus population over time. Therefore, physical abiotic features such as hot spring size and position in the landscape are important factors shaping the stability and diversity of the S. islandicus meta-population within Yellowstone National Park.

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size

PubMed Central

DeLong, John P.; Burger, Oskar

2015-01-01

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system. PMID:26091499

Socio-Economic Instability and the Scaling of Energy Use with Population Size.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Burger, Oskar

2015-01-01

The size of the human population is relevant to the development of a sustainable world, yet the forces setting growth or declines in the human population are poorly understood. Generally, population growth rates depend on whether new individuals compete for the same energy (leading to Malthusian or density-dependent growth) or help to generate new energy (leading to exponential and super-exponential growth). It has been hypothesized that exponential and super-exponential growth in humans has resulted from carrying capacity, which is in part determined by energy availability, keeping pace with or exceeding the rate of population growth. We evaluated the relationship between energy use and population size for countries with long records of both and the world as a whole to assess whether energy yields are consistent with the idea of an increasing carrying capacity. We find that on average energy use has indeed kept pace with population size over long time periods. We also show, however, that the energy-population scaling exponent plummets during, and its temporal variability increases preceding, periods of social, political, technological, and environmental change. We suggest that efforts to increase the reliability of future energy yields may be essential for stabilizing both population growth and the global socio-economic system.

Population dynamics in an intermittent refuge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colombo, E. H.; Anteneodo, C.

2016-10-01

Population dynamics is constrained by the environment, which needs to obey certain conditions to support population growth. We consider a standard model for the evolution of a single species population density, which includes reproduction, competition for resources, and spatial spreading, while subject to an external harmful effect. The habitat is spatially heterogeneous, there existing a refuge where the population can be protected. Temporal variability is introduced by the intermittent character of the refuge. This scenario can apply to a wide range of situations, from a laboratory setting where bacteria can be protected by a blinking mask from ultraviolet radiation, to large-scale ecosystems, like a marine reserve where there can be seasonal fishing prohibitions. Using analytical and numerical tools, we investigate the asymptotic behavior of the total population as a function of the size and characteristic time scales of the refuge. We obtain expressions for the minimal size required for population survival, in the slow and fast time scale limits.

Asymptotic Distributions of Coalescence Times and Ancestral Lineage Numbers for Populations with Temporally Varying Size

PubMed Central

Chen, Hua; Chen, Kun

2013-01-01

The distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers play an essential role in coalescent modeling and ancestral inference. Both exact distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers are expressed as the sum of alternating series, and the terms in the series become numerically intractable for large samples. More computationally attractive are their asymptotic distributions, which were derived in Griffiths (1984) for populations with constant size. In this article, we derive the asymptotic distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers for populations with temporally varying size. For a sample of size n, denote by Tm the mth coalescent time, when m + 1 lineages coalesce into m lineages, and An(t) the number of ancestral lineages at time t back from the current generation. Similar to the results in Griffiths (1984), the number of ancestral lineages, An(t), and the coalescence times, Tm, are asymptotically normal, with the mean and variance of these distributions depending on the population size function, N(t). At the very early stage of the coalescent, when t → 0, the number of coalesced lineages n − An(t) follows a Poisson distribution, and as m → n, n(n−1)Tm/2N(0) follows a gamma distribution. We demonstrate the accuracy of the asymptotic approximations by comparing to both exact distributions and coalescent simulations. Several applications of the theoretical results are also shown: deriving statistics related to the properties of gene genealogies, such as the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) and the total branch length (TBL) of the genealogy, and deriving the allele frequency spectrum for large genealogies. With the advent of genomic-level sequencing data for large samples, the asymptotic distributions are expected to have wide applications in theoretical and methodological development for population genetic inference. PMID:23666939

Asymptotic distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers for populations with temporally varying size.

PubMed

Chen, Hua; Chen, Kun

2013-07-01

The distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers play an essential role in coalescent modeling and ancestral inference. Both exact distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers are expressed as the sum of alternating series, and the terms in the series become numerically intractable for large samples. More computationally attractive are their asymptotic distributions, which were derived in Griffiths (1984) for populations with constant size. In this article, we derive the asymptotic distributions of coalescence times and ancestral lineage numbers for populations with temporally varying size. For a sample of size n, denote by Tm the mth coalescent time, when m + 1 lineages coalesce into m lineages, and An(t) the number of ancestral lineages at time t back from the current generation. Similar to the results in Griffiths (1984), the number of ancestral lineages, An(t), and the coalescence times, Tm, are asymptotically normal, with the mean and variance of these distributions depending on the population size function, N(t). At the very early stage of the coalescent, when t → 0, the number of coalesced lineages n - An(t) follows a Poisson distribution, and as m → n, $$n\\left(n-1\\right){T}_{m}/2N\\left(0\\right)$$ follows a gamma distribution. We demonstrate the accuracy of the asymptotic approximations by comparing to both exact distributions and coalescent simulations. Several applications of the theoretical results are also shown: deriving statistics related to the properties of gene genealogies, such as the time to the most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) and the total branch length (TBL) of the genealogy, and deriving the allele frequency spectrum for large genealogies. With the advent of genomic-level sequencing data for large samples, the asymptotic distributions are expected to have wide applications in theoretical and methodological development for population genetic inference.

Spatial heterogeneity in the effects of climate and density-dependence on dispersal in a house sparrow metapopulation

PubMed Central

Pärn, Henrik; Ringsby, Thor Harald; Jensen, Henrik; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2012-01-01

Dispersal plays a key role in the response of populations to climate change and habitat fragmentation. Here, we use data from a long-term metapopulation study of a non-migratory bird, the house sparrow (Passer domesticus), to examine the influence of increasing spring temperature and density-dependence on natal dispersal rates and how these relationships depend on spatial variation in habitat quality. The effects of spring temperature and population size on dispersal rate depended on the habitat quality. Dispersal rate increased with temperature and population size on poor-quality islands without farms, where house sparrows were more exposed to temporal fluctuations in weather conditions and food availability. By contrast, dispersal rate was independent of spring temperature and population size on high-quality islands with farms, where house sparrows had access to food and shelter all the year around. This illustrates large spatial heterogeneity within the metapopulation in how population density and environmental fluctuations affect the dispersal process. PMID:21613299

How Ebola impacts genetics of Western lowland gorilla populations.

PubMed

Le Gouar, Pascaline J; Vallet, Dominique; David, Laetitia; Bermejo, Magdalena; Gatti, Sylvain; Levréro, Florence; Petit, Eric J; Ménard, Nelly

2009-12-18

Emerging infectious diseases in wildlife are major threats for both human health and biodiversity conservation. Infectious diseases can have serious consequences for the genetic diversity of populations, which could enhance the species' extinction probability. The Ebola epizootic in western and central Africa induced more than 90% mortality in Western lowland gorilla population. Although mortality rates are very high, the impacts of Ebola on genetic diversity of Western lowland gorilla have never been assessed. We carried out long term studies of three populations of Western lowland gorilla in the Republic of the Congo (Odzala-Kokoua National Park, Lossi gorilla sanctuary both affected by Ebola and Lossi's periphery not affected). Using 17 microsatellite loci, we compared genetic diversity and structure of the populations and estimate their effective size before and after Ebola outbreaks. Despite the effective size decline in both populations, we did not detect loss in genetic diversity after the epizootic. We revealed temporal changes in allele frequencies in the smallest population. Immigration and short time elapsed since outbreaks could explain the conservation of genetic diversity after the demographic crash. Temporal changes in allele frequencies could not be explained by genetic drift or random sampling. Immigration from genetically differentiated populations and a non random mortality induced by Ebola, i.e., selective pressure and cost of sociality, are alternative hypotheses. Understanding the influence of Ebola on gorilla genetic dynamics is of paramount importance for human health, primate evolution and conservation biology.

Colonial, more widely distributed and less abundant bird species undergo wider population fluctuations independent of their population trend

PubMed Central

Møller, Anders P.

2017-01-01

Understanding temporal variability in population size is important for conservation biology because wide population fluctuations increase the risk of extinction. Previous studies suggested that certain ecological, demographic, life-history and genetic characteristics of species might be related to the degree of their population fluctuations. We checked whether that was the case in a large sample of 231 European breeding bird species while taking a number of potentially confounding factors such as population trends or similarities among species due to common descent into account. When species-specific characteristics were analysed one by one, the magnitude of population fluctuations was positively related to coloniality, habitat, total breeding range, heterogeneity of breeding distribution and natal dispersal, and negatively related to urbanisation, abundance, relative number of subspecies, parasitism and proportion of polymorphic loci. However, when abundance (population size) was included in the analyses of the other parameters, only coloniality, habitat, total breeding range and abundance remained significantly related to population fluctuations. The analysis including all these predictors simultaneously showed that population size fluctuated more in colonial, less abundant species with larger breeding ranges. Other parameters seemed to be related to population fluctuations only because of their association with abundance or coloniality. The unexpected positive relationship between population fluctuations and total breeding range did not seem to be mediated by abundance. The link between population fluctuations and coloniality suggests a previously unrecognized cost of coloniality. The negative relationship between population size and population fluctuations might be explained by at least three types of non-mutually exclusive stochastic processes: demographic, environmental and genetic stochasticity. Measurement error in population indices, which was unknown, may have contributed to the negative relationship between population size and fluctuations, but apparently only to a minor extent. The association between population size and fluctuations suggests that populations might be stabilized by increasing population size. PMID:28253345

Costs and benefits of group living with disease: a case study of pneumonia in bighorn lambs (Ovis canadensis).

PubMed

Manlove, Kezia R; Cassirer, E Frances; Cross, Paul C; Plowright, Raina K; Hudson, Peter J

2014-12-22

Group living facilitates pathogen transmission among social hosts, yet temporally stable host social organizations can actually limit transmission of some pathogens. When there are few between-subpopulation contacts for the duration of a disease event, transmission becomes localized to subpopulations. The number of per capita infectious contacts approaches the subpopulation size as pathogen infectiousness increases. Here, we illustrate that this is the case during epidemics of highly infectious pneumonia in bighorn lambs (Ovis canadensis). We classified individually marked bighorn ewes into disjoint seasonal subpopulations, and decomposed the variance in lamb survival to weaning into components associated with individual ewes, subpopulations, populations and years. During epidemics, lamb survival varied substantially more between ewe-subpopulations than across populations or years, suggesting localized pathogen transmission. This pattern of lamb survival was not observed during years when disease was absent. Additionally, group sizes in ewe-subpopulations were independent of population size, but the number of ewe-subpopulations increased with population size. Consequently, although one might reasonably assume that force of infection for this highly communicable disease scales with population size, in fact, host social behaviour modulates transmission such that disease is frequency-dependent within populations, and some groups remain protected during epidemic events. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Costs and benefits of group living with disease: a case study of pneumonia in bighorn lambs (Ovis canadensis)

PubMed Central

Manlove, Kezia R.; Cassirer, E. Frances; Cross, Paul C.; Plowright, Raina K.; Hudson, Peter J.

2014-01-01

Group living facilitates pathogen transmission among social hosts, yet temporally stable host social organizations can actually limit transmission of some pathogens. When there are few between-subpopulation contacts for the duration of a disease event, transmission becomes localized to subpopulations. The number of per capita infectious contacts approaches the subpopulation size as pathogen infectiousness increases. Here, we illustrate that this is the case during epidemics of highly infectious pneumonia in bighorn lambs (Ovis canadensis). We classified individually marked bighorn ewes into disjoint seasonal subpopulations, and decomposed the variance in lamb survival to weaning into components associated with individual ewes, subpopulations, populations and years. During epidemics, lamb survival varied substantially more between ewe-subpopulations than across populations or years, suggesting localized pathogen transmission. This pattern of lamb survival was not observed during years when disease was absent. Additionally, group sizes in ewe-subpopulations were independent of population size, but the number of ewe-subpopulations increased with population size. Consequently, although one might reasonably assume that force of infection for this highly communicable disease scales with population size, in fact, host social behaviour modulates transmission such that disease is frequency-dependent within populations, and some groups remain protected during epidemic events. PMID:25377464

Costs and benefits of group living with disease: a case study of pneumonia in bighorn lambs (Ovis canadensis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Manlove, Kezia R.; Cassirer, E. Frances; Cross, Paul C.; Plowright, Raina K.; Hudson, Peter J.

2014-01-01

Group living facilitates pathogen transmission among social hosts, yet temporally stable host social organizations can actually limit transmission of some pathogens. When there are few between-subpopulation contacts for the duration of a disease event, transmission becomes localized to subpopulations. The number of per capita infectious contacts approaches the subpopulation size as pathogen infectiousness increases. Here, we illustrate that this is the case during epidemics of highly infectious pneumonia in bighorn lambs (Ovis canadensis). We classified individually marked bighorn ewes into disjoint seasonal subpopulations, and decomposed the variance in lamb survival to weaning into components associated with individual ewes, subpopulations, populations and years. During epidemics, lamb survival varied substantially more between ewe-subpopulations than across populations or years, suggesting localized pathogen transmission. This pattern of lamb survival was not observed during years when disease was absent. Additionally, group sizes in ewe-subpopulations were independent of population size, but the number of ewe-subpopulations increased with population size. Consequently, although one might reasonably assume that force of infection for this highly communicable disease scales with population size, in fact, host social behaviour modulates transmission such that disease is frequency-dependent within populations, and some groups remain protected during epidemic events.

Temporal and spatial stability of red-tailed hawk territories in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boal, C.W.; Snyder, H.A.; Bibles, Brent D.; Estabrook, T.S.

2003-01-01

We mapped Red-tailed Hawk (Buteo jamaicensis) territories in the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF) of Puerto Rico in 1998. We combined our 1998 data with that collected during previous studies of Red-tailed Hawks in the LEF to examine population numbers and spatial stability of territorial boundaries over a 26-yr period. We also investigated potential relationships between Red-tailed Hawk territory sizes and topographic and climatic factors. Mean size of 16 defended territories during 1998 was 124.3 ?? 12.0 ha, which was not significantly different from our calculations of mean territory sizes derived from data collected in 1974 and 1984. Aspect and slope influenced territory size with the smallest territories having high slope and easterly aspects. Territory size was small compared to that reported for other parts of the species' range. In addition, there was remarkably little temporal change in the spatial distribution, area, and boundaries of Red-tailed Hawk territories among the study periods. Further, there was substantial boundary overlap (21-27%) between defended territories among the different study periods. The temporal stability of the spatial distribution of Red-tailed Hawk territories in the study area leads us to believe the area might be at or near saturation.

Detectability of landscape effects on recolonization increases with regional population density

PubMed Central

Liman, Anna-Sara; Dalin, Peter; Björkman, Christer

2015-01-01

Variation in population size over time can influence our ability to identify landscape-moderated differences in community assembly. To date, however, most studies at the landscape scale only cover snapshots in time, thereby overlooking the temporal dynamics of populations and communities. In this paper, we present data that illustrate how temporal variation in population density at a regional scale can influence landscape-moderated variation in recolonization and population buildup in disturbed habitat patches. Four common insect species, two omnivores and two herbivores, were monitored over 8 years in 10 willow short-rotation coppice bio-energy stands with a four-year disturbance regime (coppice cycle). The population densities in these regularly disturbed stands were compared to densities in 17 undisturbed natural Salix cinerea (grey willow) stands in the same region. A time series approach was used, utilizing the natural variation between years to statistically model recolonization as a function of landscape composition under two different levels of regional density. Landscape composition, i.e. relative amount of forest vs. open agricultural habitats, largely determined the density of re-colonizing populations following willow coppicing in three of the four species. However, the impact of landscape composition was not detectable in years with low regional density. Our results illustrate that landscape-moderated recolonization can change over time and that considering the temporal dynamics of populations may be crucial when designing and evaluating studies at landscape level. PMID:26257881

Detectability of landscape effects on recolonization increases with regional population density.

PubMed

Liman, Anna-Sara; Dalin, Peter; Björkman, Christer

2015-07-01

Variation in population size over time can influence our ability to identify landscape-moderated differences in community assembly. To date, however, most studies at the landscape scale only cover snapshots in time, thereby overlooking the temporal dynamics of populations and communities. In this paper, we present data that illustrate how temporal variation in population density at a regional scale can influence landscape-moderated variation in recolonization and population buildup in disturbed habitat patches. Four common insect species, two omnivores and two herbivores, were monitored over 8 years in 10 willow short-rotation coppice bio-energy stands with a four-year disturbance regime (coppice cycle). The population densities in these regularly disturbed stands were compared to densities in 17 undisturbed natural Salix cinerea (grey willow) stands in the same region. A time series approach was used, utilizing the natural variation between years to statistically model recolonization as a function of landscape composition under two different levels of regional density. Landscape composition, i.e. relative amount of forest vs. open agricultural habitats, largely determined the density of re-colonizing populations following willow coppicing in three of the four species. However, the impact of landscape composition was not detectable in years with low regional density. Our results illustrate that landscape-moderated recolonization can change over time and that considering the temporal dynamics of populations may be crucial when designing and evaluating studies at landscape level.

The effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of four animal species in a Danish landscape

PubMed Central

Sibly, Richard M; Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Forchhammer, Mads C; Forbes, Valery E; Topping, Christopher J

2009-01-01

Background Variation in carrying capacity and population return rates is generally ignored in traditional studies of population dynamics. Variation is hard to study in the field because of difficulties controlling the environment in order to obtain statistical replicates, and because of the scale and expense of experimenting on populations. There may also be ethical issues. To circumvent these problems we used detailed simulations of the simultaneous behaviours of interacting animals in an accurate facsimile of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of skylarks Alauda arvensis, voles Microtus agrestis, a ground beetle Bembidion lampros and a linyphiid spider Erigone atra. This allows us to quantify and evaluate the importance of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of the four species. Results Both spatial and temporal heterogeneity affected the relationship between population growth rate and population density in all four species. Spatial heterogeneity accounted for 23–30% of the variance in population growth rate after accounting for the effects of density, reflecting big differences in local carrying capacity associated with the landscape features important to individual species. Temporal heterogeneity accounted for 3–13% of the variance in vole, skylark and spider, but 43% in beetles. The associated temporal variation in carrying capacity would be problematic in traditional analyses of density dependence. Return rates were less than one in all species and essentially invariant in skylarks, spiders and beetles. Return rates varied over the landscape in voles, being slower where there were larger fluctuations in local population sizes. Conclusion Our analyses estimated the traditional parameters of carrying capacities and return rates, but these are now seen as varying continuously over the landscape depending on habitat quality and the mechanisms of density dependence. The importance of our results lies in our demonstration that the effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity must be accounted for if we are to have accurate predictive models for use in management and conservation. This is an area which until now has lacked an adequate theoretical framework and methodology. PMID:19549327

Effects of recruitment, growth, and exploitation on walleye population size structure in northern Wisconsin lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Nate, Nancy A.

2014-01-01

We evaluated the dynamics of walleye Sander vitreus population size structure, as indexed by the proportional size distribution (PSD) of quality-length fish, in Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003 and in 204 other lakes in northern Wisconsin during 1990–2011. We estimated PSD from angler-caught walleyes in Escanaba Lake and from spring electrofishing in 204 other lakes, and then related PSD to annual estimates of recruitment to age-3, length at age 3, and annual angling exploitation rate. In Escanaba Lake during 1967–2003, annual estimates of PSD were highly dynamic, growth (positively) explained 35% of PSD variation, recruitment explained only 3% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 7% of PSD variation. In 204 other northern Wisconsin lakes during 1990–2011, PSD varied widely among lakes, recruitment (negatively) explained 29% of PSD variation, growth (positively) explained 21% of PSD variation, and exploitation explained only 4% of PSD variation. We conclude that population size structure was most strongly driven by recruitment and growth, rather than exploitation, in northern Wisconsin walleye populations. Studies of other species over wide spatial and temporal ranges of recruitment, growth, and mortality are needed to determine which dynamic rate most strongly influences population size structure of other species. Our findings indicate a need to be cautious about assuming exploitation is a strong driver of walleye population size structure.

The fall and rise of the Icelandic Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus): a 50-year demographic study on a non-cyclic Arctic fox population.

PubMed

Unnsteinsdottir, E R; Hersteinsson, P; Pálsson, S; Angerbjörn, A

2016-08-01

In territorial species, observed density dependence is often manifest in lowered reproductive output at high population density where individuals have fewer resources or are forced to inhabit low-quality territories. The Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) in Iceland is territorial throughout the year and feeds mostly on birds, since lemmings are absent from the country. Thus, the population does not exhibit short-term population cycles that are evident in most of the species' geographical range. The population has, however, gone through a major long-term fluctuation in population size. Because of the stability in hunting effort and reliable hunting records since 1958, the total number of adult foxes killed annually can be used as an index of population size (N t ). An index of carrying capacity (K) from population growth data for five separate time blocks during 1958-2007 revealed considerable variation in K and allowed a novel definition of population density in terms of K, or N t /K. Correlation analysis suggested that the reproductive rate was largely determined by the proportion of territorial foxes in the population. Variation in litter size and cub mortality was, on the other hand, related to climatic variation. Thus, Arctic foxes in Iceland engage in typical contest competition but can adapt their territory sizes in response to both temporal and spatial variation in carrying capacity, resulting in surprisingly little variation in litter size.

Macrogeographic and microgeographic genetic structure of the Chagas' disease vector Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) from Catamarca, Argentina.

PubMed

Pérez de Rosas, Alicia R; Segura, Elsa L; Fichera, Laura; García, Beatriz Alicia

2008-07-01

The genetic structure in populations of the Chagas' disease vector Triatoma infestans from six localities belonging to areas under the same insecticide treatment conditions of Catamarca province (Argentina) was examined at macrogeographical and microgeographical scales. A total of 238 insects were typed for 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci. The average observed and expected heterozygosities ranged from 0.319 to 0.549 and from 0.389 to 0.689, respectively. The present results confirm that populations of T. infestans are highly structured. Spatial genetic structure was detectable at macrogeographical and microgeographical levels. Comparisons of the levels of genetic variability between two temporal samples were carried out to assess the impact of the insecticide treatment. The genetic diversity of the population was not significantly affected after insecticide use since different genetic parameters (allele number, observed and expected heterozygosities) remained stable. However, loss of low frequency alleles and not previously found alleles were detected. The effective population size (N(e)) estimated was substantially lower in the second temporal sample than in the first; nevertheless, it is possible that the size of the remnant population after insecticide treatment was still large enough to retain the genetic diversity. Very few individuals did not belong to the local T. infestans populations as determined by assignment analyses, suggesting a low level of immigration in the population. The results of the assignment and first-generation migrant tests suggest male-biased dispersal at microgeographical level.

A toy model for hostility between two populations in dependency on their internal frustration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieder, Thomas

2014-10-01

Hostility between two populations n and m is described in terms of a first-order differential equation system for the population sizes n(t) and m(t) over time t. Each population is subdivided into two subpopulations 'Doves' and 'Hawks'. Hawks represent the strategy aggression against the other population. The number of hawks which actually exert aggression depends on the overall frustration within their population. Conversely, aggression causes the conversion from doves to hawks in the attacked population. Thus, a system of flows among the subpopulation is established. The actual behaviour of n(t) and m(t) over time t depends on the coefficients chosen for the differential system and in particular on the temporal development of the frustration parameters. No calculation or simulation of actual population sizes is intended. The only goal of the paper is to establish a model which describes an never ending conflict between both populations caused by internal frustrations.

Fine-scale spatio-temporal variation in tiger Panthera tigris diet: Effect of study duration and extent on estimates of tiger diet in Chitwan National Park, Nepal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kapfer, Paul M.; Streby, Henry M.; Gurung, B.; Simcharoen, A.; McDougal, C.C.; Smith, J.L.D.

2011-01-01

Attempts to conserve declining tiger Panthera tigris populations and distributions have experienced limited success. The poaching of tiger prey is a key threat to tiger persistence; a clear understanding of tiger diet is a prerequisite to conserve dwindling populations. We used unpublished data on tiger diet in combination with two previously published studies to examine fine-scale spatio-temporal changes in tiger diet relative to prey abundance in Chitwan National Park, Nepal, and aggregated data from the three studies to examine the effect that study duration and the size of the study area have on estimates of tiger diet. Our results correspond with those of previous studies: in all three studies, tiger diet was dominated by members of Cervidae; small to medium-sized prey was important in one study. Tiger diet was unrelated to prey abundance, and the aggregation of studies indicates that increasing study duration and study area size both result in increased dietary diversity in terms of prey categories consumed, and increasing study duration changed which prey species contributed most to tiger diet. Based on our results, we suggest that managers focus their efforts on minimizing the poaching of all tiger prey, and that future studies of tiger diet be of long duration and large spatial extent to improve our understanding of spatio-temporal variation in estimates of tiger diet. ?? 2011 Wildlife Biology, NKV.

The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

2005-01-01

1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

Temporal dynamics and impact of event interactions in cyber-social populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yi-Qing; Li, Xiang

2013-03-01

The advance of information technologies provides powerful measures to digitize social interactions and facilitate quantitative investigations. To explore large-scale indoor interactions of a social population, we analyze 18 715 users' Wi-Fi access logs recorded in a Chinese university campus during 3 months, and define event interaction (EI) to characterize the concurrent interactions of multiple users inferred by their geographic coincidences—co-locating in the same small region at the same time. We propose three rules to construct a transmission graph, which depicts the topological and temporal features of event interactions. The vertex dynamics of transmission graph tells that the active durations of EIs fall into the truncated power-law distributions, which is independent on the number of involved individuals. The edge dynamics of transmission graph reports that the transmission durations present a truncated power-law pattern independent on the daily and weekly periodicities. Besides, in the aggregated transmission graph, low-degree vertices previously neglected in the aggregated static networks may participate in the large-degree EIs, which is verified by three data sets covering different sizes of social populations with various rendezvouses. This work highlights the temporal significance of event interactions in cyber-social populations.

Temporal stability of an endemic Mexican treefrog

PubMed Central

Cruz-Ruiz, Griselda; Venegas-Barrera, Crystian S.; Sanchez-Sanchez, Hermilo

2015-01-01

The demographic characteristics of an amphibian population fluctuate independently over time, mainly in response to the temporal variation of environmental factors, especially precipitation and temperature. These temporal fluctuations may contribute to the size of an amphibian population and could be used to determine the current conservation status of a species. During a five year (2004–2008) period, we studied the relative abundance, sex ratio, and age-sex structure of a population of metamorphosed individuals of the endemic treefrog Hyla eximia in Central Mexico. We also studied the species’ relationship with climatic variables such as temperature and precipitation. We found an interannual constant abundance during the study period. However, interannual differences were observed in the population structure by age-sex category (males, females, or juveniles), with decreased abundance of males and juveniles during the rainy months (August–November). The annual abundance of H. eximia was positively correlated with rainfall, but negatively with monthly temperature. We found the sex ratio was male-biased (2:1), except for year 2008. Also, differences in snout-vent length (SVL) were found between years, suggesting changes in recruitment of new individuals. We conclude that variations in abundance, and frequencies by age-sex category, of H. eximia are related to seasonal variations in temperature and precipitation characteristics of temperate zones. However, this temporal stability may suggest that anurans have an unusual capacity to persist even in the face of human-induced habitat change. PMID:26421242

Accounting for missing data in the estimation of contemporary genetic effective population size (N(e) ).

PubMed

Peel, D; Waples, R S; Macbeth, G M; Do, C; Ovenden, J R

2013-03-01

Theoretical models are often applied to population genetic data sets without fully considering the effect of missing data. Researchers can deal with missing data by removing individuals that have failed to yield genotypes and/or by removing loci that have failed to yield allelic determinations, but despite their best efforts, most data sets still contain some missing data. As a consequence, realized sample size differs among loci, and this poses a problem for unbiased methods that must explicitly account for random sampling error. One commonly used solution for the calculation of contemporary effective population size (N(e) ) is to calculate the effective sample size as an unweighted mean or harmonic mean across loci. This is not ideal because it fails to account for the fact that loci with different numbers of alleles have different information content. Here we consider this problem for genetic estimators of contemporary effective population size (N(e) ). To evaluate bias and precision of several statistical approaches for dealing with missing data, we simulated populations with known N(e) and various degrees of missing data. Across all scenarios, one method of correcting for missing data (fixed-inverse variance-weighted harmonic mean) consistently performed the best for both single-sample and two-sample (temporal) methods of estimating N(e) and outperformed some methods currently in widespread use. The approach adopted here may be a starting point to adjust other population genetics methods that include per-locus sample size components. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Spatial and temporal variation of body size among early Homo.

PubMed

Will, Manuel; Stock, Jay T

2015-05-01

The estimation of body size among the earliest members of the genus Homo (2.4-1.5Myr [millions of years ago]) is central to interpretations of their biology. It is widely accepted that Homo ergaster possessed increased body size compared with Homo habilis and Homo rudolfensis, and that this may have been a factor involved with the dispersal of Homo out of Africa. The study of taxonomic differences in body size, however, is problematic. Postcranial remains are rarely associated with craniodental fossils, and taxonomic attributions frequently rest upon the size of skeletal elements. Previous body size estimates have been based upon well-preserved specimens with a more reliable species assessment. Since these samples are small (n < 5) and disparate in space and time, little is known about geographical and chronological variation in body size within early Homo. We investigate temporal and spatial variation in body size among fossils of early Homo using a 'taxon-free' approach, considering evidence for size variation from isolated and fragmentary postcranial remains (n = 39). To render the size of disparate fossil elements comparable, we derived new regression equations for common parameters of body size from a globally representative sample of hunter-gatherers and applied them to available postcranial measurements from the fossils. The results demonstrate chronological and spatial variation but no simple temporal or geographical trends for the evolution of body size among early Homo. Pronounced body size increases within Africa take place only after hominin populations were established at Dmanisi, suggesting that migrations into Eurasia were not contingent on larger body sizes. The primary evidence for these marked changes among early Homo is based upon material from Koobi Fora after 1.7Myr, indicating regional size variation. The significant body size differences between specimens from Koobi Fora and Olduvai support the cranial evidence for at least two co-existing morphotypes in the Early Pleistocene of eastern Africa. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sollmann, Rachel; Beth Gardner,; Richard B Chandler,; Royle, J. Andrew; T Scott Sillett,

2015-01-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for direct estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for island scrub-jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying number of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

An open-population hierarchical distance sampling model.

PubMed

Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth; Chandler, Richard B; Royle, J Andrew; Sillett, T Scott

2015-02-01

Modeling population dynamics while accounting for imperfect detection is essential to monitoring programs. Distance sampling allows estimating population size while accounting for imperfect detection, but existing methods do not allow for estimation of demographic parameters. We develop a model that uses temporal correlation in abundance arising from underlying population dynamics to estimate demographic parameters from repeated distance sampling surveys. Using a simulation study motivated by designing a monitoring program for Island Scrub-Jays (Aphelocoma insularis), we investigated the power of this model to detect population trends. We generated temporally autocorrelated abundance and distance sampling data over six surveys, using population rates of change of 0.95 and 0.90. We fit the data generating Markovian model and a mis-specified model with a log-linear time effect on abundance, and derived post hoc trend estimates from a model estimating abundance for each survey separately. We performed these analyses for varying numbers of survey points. Power to detect population changes was consistently greater under the Markov model than under the alternatives, particularly for reduced numbers of survey points. The model can readily be extended to more complex demographic processes than considered in our simulations. This novel framework can be widely adopted for wildlife population monitoring.

Analysis options for estimating status and trends in long-term monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bart, Jonathan; Beyer, Hawthorne L.

2012-01-01

This chapter describes methods for estimating long-term trends in ecological parameters. Other chapters in this volume discuss more advanced methods for analyzing monitoring data, but these methods may be relatively inaccessible to some readers. Therefore, this chapter provides an introduction to trend analysis for managers and biologists while also discussing general issues relevant to trend assessment in any long-term monitoring program. For simplicity, we focus on temporal trends in population size across years. We refer to the survey results for each year as the “annual means” (e.g. mean per transect, per plot, per time period). The methods apply with little or no modification, however, to formal estimates of population size, other temporal units (e.g. a month), to spatial or other dimensions such as elevation or a north–south gradient, and to other quantities such as chemical or geological parameters. The chapter primarily discusses methods for estimating population-wide parameters rather than studying variation in trend within the population, which can be examined using methods presented in other chapters (e.g. Chapters 7, 12, 20). We begin by reviewing key concepts related to trend analysis. We then describe how to evaluate potential bias in trend estimates. An overview of the statistical models used to quantify trends is then presented. We conclude by showing ways to estimate trends using simple methods that can be implemented with spreadsheets.

Implications of recurrent disturbance for genetic diversity.

PubMed

Davies, Ian D; Cary, Geoffrey J; Landguth, Erin L; Lindenmayer, David B; Banks, Sam C

2016-02-01

Exploring interactions between ecological disturbance, species' abundances and community composition provides critical insights for ecological dynamics. While disturbance is also potentially an important driver of landscape genetic patterns, the mechanisms by which these patterns may arise by selective and neutral processes are not well-understood. We used simulation to evaluate the relative importance of disturbance regime components, and their interaction with demographic and dispersal processes, on the distribution of genetic diversity across landscapes. We investigated genetic impacts of variation in key components of disturbance regimes and spatial patterns that are likely to respond to climate change and land management, including disturbance size, frequency, and severity. The influence of disturbance was mediated by dispersal distance and, to a limited extent, by birth rate. Nevertheless, all three disturbance regime components strongly influenced spatial and temporal patterns of genetic diversity within subpopulations, and were associated with changes in genetic structure. Furthermore, disturbance-induced changes in temporal population dynamics and the spatial distribution of populations across the landscape resulted in disrupted isolation by distance patterns among populations. Our results show that forecast changes in disturbance regimes have the potential to cause major changes to the distribution of genetic diversity within and among populations. We highlight likely scenarios under which future changes to disturbance size, severity, or frequency will have the strongest impacts on population genetic patterns. In addition, our results have implications for the inference of biological processes from genetic data, because the effects of dispersal on genetic patterns were strongly mediated by disturbance regimes.

Effective size of two feral domestic cat populations (Felis catus L): effect of the mating system.

PubMed

Kaeuffer, R; Pontier, D; Devillard, S; Perrin, N

2004-02-01

A variety of behavioural traits have substantial effects on the gene dynamics and genetic structure of local populations. The mating system is a plastic trait that varies with environmental conditions in the domestic cat (Felis catus) allowing an intraspecific comparison of the impact of this feature on genetic characteristics of the population. To assess the potential effect of the heterogenity of males' contribution to the next generation on variance effective size, we applied the ecological approach of Nunney & Elam (1994) based upon a demographic and behavioural study, and the genetic 'temporal methods' of Waples (1989) and Berthier et al. (2002) using microsatellite markers. The two cat populations studied were nearly closed, similar in size and survival parameters, but differed in their mating system. Immigration appeared extremely restricted in both cases due to environmental and social constraints. As expected, the ratio of effective size to census number (Ne/N) was higher in the promiscuous cat population (harmonic mean = 42%) than in the polygynous one (33%), when Ne was calculated from the ecological method. Only the genetic results based on Waples' estimator were consistent with the ecological results, but failed to evidence an effect of the mating system. Results based on the estimation of Berthier et al. (2002) were extremely variable, with Ne sometimes exceeding census size. Such low reliability in the genetic results should retain attention for conservation purposes.

Size-frequency distribution, growth, and mortality of snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio) and arctic lyre crab (Hyas coarctatus) in the chukchi sea from 2009 to 2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groß, Jasmin; Konar, Brenda; Brey, Thomas; Grebmeier, Jacqueline M.

2017-10-01

The snow crab Chionoecetes opilio and Arctic lyre crab Hyas coarctatus are prominent members of the Chukchi Sea epifaunal community. A better understanding of their life history will aid in determining their role in this ecosystem in light of the changing climate and resource development. In this study, the size frequency distribution, growth, and mortality of these two crab species was examined in 2009, 2010, 2012, and 2013 to determine temporal and spatial patterns within the eastern Chukchi Sea, and to identify potential environmental drivers of the observed patterns. Temporally, the mean size of both sexes of C. opilio and H. coarctatus decreased significantly from 2009 to 2013, with the number of rare maximum sized organisms decreasing significantly to near absence in the latter two study years. Spatially, the mean size of male and female crabs of both species showed a latitudinal trend, decreasing from south to north in the investigation area. Growth of both sexes of C. opilio and H. coarctatus was linear over the sampled size range, and mortality was highest in the latter two study years. Life history features of both species related to different environmental parameters in different years, ranging from temperature, the sediment carbon to nitrogen ratio of the organic content, and sediment grain size distribution. Likely explanations for the observed temporal and spatial variability are ontogenetic migrations of mature crabs to warmer areas possibly due to cooler water temperatures in the latter two study years, or interannual fluctuations, which have been reported for C. opilio populations in other areas where successful waves of recruitment were estimated to occur in eight year intervals. Further research is suggested to determine if the spatial and temporal patterns found in this study are part of the natural variability in this system or if they are an indication of long-term trends.

Demographic and habitat requirements for conservation of bull trout

Treesearch

Bruce E. Rieman; John D. Mclntyre

1993-01-01

Elements in bull trout biology, population dynamics, habitat, and biotic interactions important to conservation of the species are identified. Bull trout appear to have more specific habitat requirements than other salmonids, but no critical thresholds of acceptable habitat condition were found. Size, temporal variation, and spatial distribution are likely to influence...

Spatiotemporal variation in local adaptation of a specialist insect herbivore to its long-lived host plant.

PubMed

Kalske, Aino; Leimu, Roosa; Scheepens, J F; Mutikainen, Pia

2016-09-01

Local adaptation of interacting species to one another indicates geographically variable reciprocal selection. This process of adaptation is central in the organization and maintenance of genetic variation across populations. Given that the strength of selection and responses to it often vary in time and space, the strength of local adaptation should in theory vary between generations and among populations. However, such spatiotemporal variation has rarely been explicitly demonstrated in nature and local adaptation is commonly considered to be relatively static. We report persistent local adaptation of the short-lived herbivore Abrostola asclepiadis to its long-lived host plant Vincetoxicum hirundinaria over three successive generations in two studied populations and considerable temporal variation in local adaptation in six populations supporting the geographic mosaic theory. The observed variation in local adaptation among populations was best explained by geographic distance and population isolation, suggesting that gene flow reduces local adaptation. Changes in herbivore population size did not conclusively explain temporal variation in local adaptation. Our results also imply that short-term studies are likely to capture only a part of the existing variation in local adaptation. © 2016 The Author(s). Evolution © 2016 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Conservation Genetics of Threatened Hippocampus guttulatus in Vulnerable Habitats in NW Spain: Temporal and Spatial Stability of Wild Populations with Flexible Polygamous Mating System in Captivity

PubMed Central

López, Almudena; Vera, Manuel; Planas, Miquel; Bouza, Carmen

2015-01-01

This study was focused on conservation genetics of threatened Hippocampus guttulatus on the Atlantic coast of NW Iberian Peninsula. Information about spatial structure and temporal stability of wild populations was obtained based on microsatellite markers, and used for monitoring a captive breeding program firstly initiated in this zone at the facilities of the Institute of Marine Research (Vigo, Spain). No significant major genetic structure was observed regarding the biogeographical barrier of Cape Finisterre. However, two management units under continuous gene flow are proposed based on the allelic differentiation between South-Atlantic and Cantabrian subpopulations, with small to moderate contemporary effective size based on single-sample methods. Temporal stability was observed in South-Atlantic population samples of H. guttulatus for the six-year period studied, suggesting large enough effective population size to buffer the effects of genetic drift within the time frame of three generations. Genetic analysis of wild breeders and offspring in captivity since 2009 allowed us to monitor the breeding program founded in 2006 in NW Spain for this species. Similar genetic diversity in the renewed and founder broodstock, regarding the wild population of origin, supports suitable renewal and rearing processes to maintain genetic variation in captivity. Genetic parentage proved single-brood monogamy in the wild and in captivity, but flexible short- and long-term mating system under captive conditions, from strict monogamy to polygamy within and/or among breeding seasons. Family analysis showed high reproductive success in captivity under genetic management assisted by molecular relatedness estimates to avoid inbreeding. This study provides genetic information about H. guttulatus in the wild and captivity within an uncovered geographical range for this data deficient species, to be taken into account for management and conservation purposes. PMID:25646777

Optimal balance of the striatal medium spiny neuron network.

PubMed

Ponzi, Adam; Wickens, Jeffery R

2013-04-01

Slowly varying activity in the striatum, the main Basal Ganglia input structure, is important for the learning and execution of movement sequences. Striatal medium spiny neurons (MSNs) form cell assemblies whose population firing rates vary coherently on slow behaviourally relevant timescales. It has been shown that such activity emerges in a model of a local MSN network but only at realistic connectivities of 10 ~ 20% and only when MSN generated inhibitory post-synaptic potentials (IPSPs) are realistically sized. Here we suggest a reason for this. We investigate how MSN network generated population activity interacts with temporally varying cortical driving activity, as would occur in a behavioural task. We find that at unrealistically high connectivity a stable winners-take-all type regime is found where network activity separates into fixed stimulus dependent regularly firing and quiescent components. In this regime only a small number of population firing rate components interact with cortical stimulus variations. Around 15% connectivity a transition to a more dynamically active regime occurs where all cells constantly switch between activity and quiescence. In this low connectivity regime, MSN population components wander randomly and here too are independent of variations in cortical driving. Only in the transition regime do weak changes in cortical driving interact with many population components so that sequential cell assemblies are reproducibly activated for many hundreds of milliseconds after stimulus onset and peri-stimulus time histograms display strong stimulus and temporal specificity. We show that, remarkably, this activity is maximized at striatally realistic connectivities and IPSP sizes. Thus, we suggest the local MSN network has optimal characteristics - it is neither too stable to respond in a dynamically complex temporally extended way to cortical variations, nor is it too unstable to respond in a consistent repeatable way. Rather, it is optimized to generate stimulus dependent activity patterns for long periods after variations in cortical excitation.

Optimal Balance of the Striatal Medium Spiny Neuron Network

PubMed Central

Ponzi, Adam; Wickens, Jeffery R.

2013-01-01

Slowly varying activity in the striatum, the main Basal Ganglia input structure, is important for the learning and execution of movement sequences. Striatal medium spiny neurons (MSNs) form cell assemblies whose population firing rates vary coherently on slow behaviourally relevant timescales. It has been shown that such activity emerges in a model of a local MSN network but only at realistic connectivities of and only when MSN generated inhibitory post-synaptic potentials (IPSPs) are realistically sized. Here we suggest a reason for this. We investigate how MSN network generated population activity interacts with temporally varying cortical driving activity, as would occur in a behavioural task. We find that at unrealistically high connectivity a stable winners-take-all type regime is found where network activity separates into fixed stimulus dependent regularly firing and quiescent components. In this regime only a small number of population firing rate components interact with cortical stimulus variations. Around connectivity a transition to a more dynamically active regime occurs where all cells constantly switch between activity and quiescence. In this low connectivity regime, MSN population components wander randomly and here too are independent of variations in cortical driving. Only in the transition regime do weak changes in cortical driving interact with many population components so that sequential cell assemblies are reproducibly activated for many hundreds of milliseconds after stimulus onset and peri-stimulus time histograms display strong stimulus and temporal specificity. We show that, remarkably, this activity is maximized at striatally realistic connectivities and IPSP sizes. Thus, we suggest the local MSN network has optimal characteristics – it is neither too stable to respond in a dynamically complex temporally extended way to cortical variations, nor is it too unstable to respond in a consistent repeatable way. Rather, it is optimized to generate stimulus dependent activity patterns for long periods after variations in cortical excitation. PMID:23592954

The effects of temporal variability of mixed layer depth on primary productivity around Bermuda

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bissett, W. Paul; Meyers, Mark B.; Walsh, John J.; Mueller-Karger, Frank E.

1994-01-01

Temporal variations in primary production and surface chlorophyll concentrations, as measured by ship and satellite around Bermuda, were simulated with a numerical model. In the upper 450 m of the water column, population dynamics of a size-fractionated phytoplankton community were forced by daily changes of wind, light, grazing stress, and nutrient availability. The temporal variations of production and chlorophyll were driven by changes in nutrient introduction to the euphotic zone due to both high- and low-frequency changes of the mixed layer depth within 32 deg-34 deg N, 62 deg-64 deg W between 1979 and 1984. Results from the model derived from high-frequency (case 1) changes in the mixed layer depth showed variations in primary production and peak chlorophyll concentrations when compared with results from the model derived from low-frequency (case 2) mixed layer depth changes. Incorporation of size-fractionated plankton state variables in the model led to greater seasonal resolution of measured primary production and vertical chlorophyll profiles. The findings of this study highlight the possible inadequacy of estimating primary production in the sea from data of low-frequency temporal resolution and oversimplified biological simulations.

Changes in the selection differential exerted on a marine snail during the ontogeny of a predatory shore crab.

PubMed

Pakes, D; Boulding, E G

2010-08-01

Empirical estimates of selection gradients caused by predators are common, yet no one has quantified how these estimates vary with predator ontogeny. We used logistic regression to investigate how selection on gastropod shell thickness changed with predator size. Only small and medium purple shore crabs (Hemigrapsus nudus) exerted a linear selection gradient for increased shell-thickness within a single population of the intertidal snail (Littorina subrotundata). The shape of the fitness function for shell thickness was confirmed to be linear for small and medium crabs but was humped for large male crabs, suggesting no directional selection. A second experiment using two prey species to amplify shell thickness differences established that the selection differential on adult snails decreased linearly as crab size increased. We observed differences in size distribution and sex ratios among three natural shore crab populations that may cause spatial and temporal variation in predator-mediated selection on local snail populations.

Spatial and temporal variation of life-history traits documented using capture-mark-recapture methods in the vector snail Bulinus truncatus.

PubMed

Chlyeh, G; Henry, P Y; Jarne, P

2003-09-01

The population biology of the schistosome-vector snail Bulinus truncatus was studied in an irrigation area near Marrakech, Morocco, using demographic approaches, in order to estimate life-history parameters. The survey was conducted using 2 capture-mark-recapture analyses in 2 separate sites from the irrigation area, the first one in 1999 and the second one in 2000. Individuals larger than 5 mm were considered. The capture probability varied through time and space in both analyses. Apparent survival (from 0.7 to 1 per period of 2-3 days) varied with time and space (a series of sinks was considered), as well as a square function of size. These results suggest variation in population intrinsic rate of increase. They also suggest that results from more classical analyses of population demography, aiming, for example at estimating population size, should be interpreted with caution. Together with other results obtained in the same irrigation area, they also lead to some suggestions for population control.

Quantifying long-term population growth rates of threatened bull trout: challenges, lessons learned, and opportunities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Budy, Phaedra; Bowerman, Tracy; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Conner, Mary; Schaller, Howard

2017-01-01

Temporal symmetry models (TSM) represent advances in the analytical application of mark–recapture data to population status assessments. For a population of char, we employed 10 years of active and passive mark–recapture data to quantify population growth rates using different data sources and analytical approaches. Estimates of adult population growth rate were 1.01 (95% confidence interval = 0.84–1.20) using a temporal symmetry model (λTSM), 0.96 (0.68–1.34) based on logistic regressions of annual snorkel data (λA), and 0.92 (0.77–1.11) from redd counts (λR). Top-performing TSMs included an increasing time trend in recruitment (f) and changes in capture probability (p). There was only a 1% chance the population decreased ≥50%, and a 10% chance it decreased ≥30% (λMCMC; based on Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure). Size structure was stable; however, the adult population was dominated by small adults, and over the study period there was a decline in the contribution of large adults to total biomass. Juvenile condition decreased with increasing adult densities. Utilization of these different information sources provided a robust weight-of-evidence approach to identifying population status and potential mechanisms driving changes in population growth rates.

Early Life Conditions and Physiological Stress following the Transition to Farming in Central/Southeast Europe: Skeletal Growth Impairment and 6000 Years of Gradual Recovery

PubMed Central

Macintosh, Alison A.; Pinhasi, Ron; Stock, Jay T.

2016-01-01

Early life conditions play an important role in determining adult body size. In particular, childhood malnutrition and disease can elicit growth delays and affect adult body size if severe or prolonged enough. In the earliest stages of farming, skeletal growth impairment and small adult body size are often documented relative to hunter-gatherer groups, though this pattern is regionally variable. In Central/Southeast Europe, it is unclear how early life stress, growth history, and adult body size were impacted by the introduction of agriculture and ensuing long-term demographic, social, and behavioral change. The current study assesses this impact through the reconstruction and analysis of mean stature, body mass, limb proportion indices, and sexual dimorphism among 407 skeletally mature men and women from foraging and farming populations spanning the Late Mesolithic through Early Medieval periods in Central/Southeast Europe (~7100 calBC to 850 AD). Results document significantly reduced mean stature, body mass, and crural index in Neolithic agriculturalists relative both to Late Mesolithic hunter-gatherer-fishers and to later farming populations. This indication of relative growth impairment in the Neolithic, particularly among women, is supported by existing evidence of high developmental stress, intensive physical activity, and variable access to animal protein in these early agricultural populations. Among subsequent agriculturalists, temporal increases in mean stature, body mass, and crural index were more pronounced among Central European women, driving declines in the magnitude of sexual dimorphism through time. Overall, results suggest that the transition to agriculture in Central/Southeast Europe was challenging for early farming populations, but was followed by gradual amelioration across thousands of years, particularly among Central European women. This sex difference may be indicative, in part, of greater temporal variation in the social status afforded to young girls, in their access to resources during growth, and/or in their health status than was experienced by men. PMID:26844892

Temporal variation in the mating structure of Sanday, Orkney Islands.

PubMed

Brennan, E R; Relethford, J H

1983-01-01

Pedigree and vital statistics data from the population of Sanday, Orkney Islands, Scotland, were used to assess temporal changes in population structure. Secular trends in patterns of mate choice were analysed for three separate birth cohorts of spouses: 1855-1884, 1885-1924 and 1925-1964. The degree to which mating was random or assortative with respect to both genealogical and geographic distance was determined by comparing average characteristics of all potential mates of married males with those of actual wives. We integrated this procedure, originally developed by Dyke (1971), into a three-fold investigation of population structure: (1) comparison of random and non-random components of relatedness as measured from pedigree data; (2) an analysis of marital distance distributions for actual and potential mates of married males; and (3) the relationship between genealogical relatedness and geographic distance. As population size decreased from 1881 to the present, total kinship and spatial distances between spouses increased. Whereas the random component of relatedness increased over time, consanguinity avoidance was sufficient to decrease the total coefficient of kinship over time. Part of the increase in consanguinity avoidance was associated with isolate breakdown, as distances between island-born spouses, as well as the total amount of off-island migration, increased from the mid-nineteenth century to the present. Mate choice was influenced by geographic distance for all time periods, although this effect diminished over time. Since decreases in population size, concomitant with increases in consanguinity avoidance and community exogamy, have probably occurred quite frequently in small human populations, as well as in rural Western communities in the past century, observed secular trends illustrate the potential for change in population structure characteristic of isolate breakdown.

How big should a mammal be? A macroecological look at mammalian body size over space and time

PubMed Central

Smith, Felisa A.; Lyons, S. Kathleen

2011-01-01

Macroecology was developed as a big picture statistical approach to the study of ecology and evolution. By focusing on broadly occurring patterns and processes operating at large spatial and temporal scales rather than on localized and/or fine-scaled details, macroecology aims to uncover general mechanisms operating at organism, population, and ecosystem levels of organization. Macroecological studies typically involve the statistical analysis of fundamental species-level traits, such as body size, area of geographical range, and average density and/or abundance. Here, we briefly review the history of macroecology and use the body size of mammals as a case study to highlight current developments in the field, including the increasing linkage with biogeography and other disciplines. Characterizing the factors underlying the spatial and temporal patterns of body size variation in mammals is a daunting task and moreover, one not readily amenable to traditional statistical analyses. Our results clearly illustrate remarkable regularities in the distribution and variation of mammalian body size across both geographical space and evolutionary time that are related to ecology and trophic dynamics and that would not be apparent without a broader perspective. PMID:21768152

Spatial and temporal variation of the gill rakers of gizzard shad and silver carp in three Midwestern rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walleser, Liza R.; Sandheinrich, Mark B.; Howard, David R.; Gaikowski, Mark P.; Amberg, Jon J.

2014-01-01

Improved management of invasive Silver Carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix in the upper Mississippi River basin may be possible by better understanding the feeding abilities of this population. Food collection for filter-feeding fishes, such as Silver Carp, is influenced by the species-specific structure of their gill rakers. To investigate structural variation in gill rakers of Silver Carp, the morphology of gill rakers was quantified and compared with that of a native filter-feeding fish species which may compete with Silver Carp for food resources, Gizzard Shad Dorosoma cepedianum. Intra- and interspecies variation of gill rakers was examined in both species collected from three locations among four months. Interspecies analysis indicated the size of pores in gill rakers of Silver Carp were much larger than the interraker spacings of Gizzard Shad (95% CI ranged from 80.69 to 185.75 μm versus 16.72 to 47.36 μm, respectively). Intraspecies variation of gill rakers from Silver Carp was related to the overall size of fish and occurred only among sites where dissimilar sizes of fish were collected. This suggested the size of particles filtered by Silver Carp may be dependent upon ontogenic development rather than phenotypic plasticity in response to spatial or temporal factors. Intraspecies variation of gill rakers from Gizzard Shad occurred among site and monthly sampling data; however, variation was only attributable to overall size of fish for monthly sampling data. This suggested ontogeny may influence the filter-feeding ability of this species within a habitat. However, variation noted among sites, which was not attributable to size of fish, may indicate gill rakers are phenotypically plastic among Gizzard Shad populations of various river systems of the upper Mississippi River basin.

Spatial capture-recapture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Sollmann, Rahel; Gardner, Beth

2013-01-01

Spatial Capture-Recapture provides a revolutionary extension of traditional capture-recapture methods for studying animal populations using data from live trapping, camera trapping, DNA sampling, acoustic sampling, and related field methods. This book is a conceptual and methodological synthesis of spatial capture-recapture modeling. As a comprehensive how-to manual, this reference contains detailed examples of a wide range of relevant spatial capture-recapture models for inference about population size and spatial and temporal variation in demographic parameters. Practicing field biologists studying animal populations will find this book to be a useful resource, as will graduate students and professionals in ecology, conservation biology, and fisheries and wildlife management.

New body mass estimates of British Pleistocene wolves: Palaeoenvironmental implications and competitive interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flower, L. O. H.

2016-10-01

Body mass was reconstructed for early Middle Pleistocene Canis mosbachensis and late Middle to Late Pleistocene Canis lupus from key assemblages in Britain, to explore the presence of temporal size variability and whether size fluctuations were related to changes in climate and environment or to differences in Pleistocene carnivore community structure. Using the well-known body mass predictor of lower carnassial (m1) tooth length, combined with an extant canid dataset incorporating 25 species, least squares regression was used to assess allometric scaling prior to modelling the relationship between body mass and m1 length, producing a new predictive equation of Pleistocene canid body mass. The medium-sized C. mosbachensis had relatively stable body mass, with remarkable consistency in size compared to populations in the late Early Pleistocene of Europe. Periodical fluctuations in climatic conditions had a minimal effect on C. mosbachensis size over time, with the terrestrial connection between Britain and mainland Europe at this time key in promoting body mass stability by enabling movement away from less favourable conditions and to follow prey into refugia. Overall changes in carnivore guild structure were of minimal influence to C. mosbachensis in Britain, as the continued predominance of larger carnivores, in particular a larger canid, effectively constrained C. mosbachensis. In contrast, the body mass of larger-sized C. lupus was highly temporally varied, with an increasing size trend evident into the Devensian. Similar body size in the penultimate interglacial (MIS 7) and Middle Devensian (MIS 3) populations likely reflects palaeoenvironmental similarity and comparable carnivore community and prey spectrums, with larger predators effectively constraining C. lupus. However, the severely cold conditions of the Early Devensian (MIS 5a) may have caused a Bergmannian response in wolves, leading to their comparatively much larger size, with C. lupus further ecologically "liberated" by an absence of larger multiple larger predators at this time.

Temporal variation in temperature determines disease spread and maintenance in Paramecium microcosm populations

PubMed Central

Duncan, Alison B.; Fellous, Simon; Kaltz, Oliver

2011-01-01

The environment is rarely constant and organisms are exposed to temporal and spatial variations that impact their life histories and inter-species interactions. It is important to understand how such variations affect epidemiological dynamics in host–parasite systems. We explored effects of temporal variation in temperature on experimental microcosm populations of the ciliate Paramecium caudatum and its bacterial parasite Holospora undulata. Infected and uninfected populations of two P. caudatum genotypes were created and four constant temperature treatments (26°C, 28°C, 30°C and 32°C) compared with four variable treatments with the same mean temperatures. Variable temperature treatments were achieved by alternating populations between permissive (23°C) and restrictive (35°C) conditions daily over 30 days. Variable conditions and high temperatures caused greater declines in Paramecium populations, greater fluctuations in population size and higher incidence of extinction. The additional effect of parasite infection was additive and enhanced the negative effects of the variable environment and higher temperatures by up to 50 per cent. The variable environment and high temperatures also caused a decrease in parasite prevalence (up to 40%) and an increase in extinction (absence of detection) (up to 30%). The host genotypes responded similarly to the different environmental stresses and their effect on parasite traits were generally in the same direction. This work provides, to our knowledge, the first experimental demonstration that epidemiological dynamics are influenced by environmental variation. We also emphasize the need to consider environmental variance, as well as means, when trying to understand, or predict population dynamics or range. PMID:21450730

Spatio-temporal spawning and larval dynamics of a zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) population in a North Texas Reservoir: implications for invasions in the southern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Churchill, Christopher John

2013-01-01

Zebra mussels were first observed in Texas in 2009 in a reservoir (Lake Texoma) on the Texas-Oklahoma border. In 2012, an established population was found in a near-by reservoir, Ray Roberts Lake, and in June 2013, settled mussels were detected in a third north Texas reservoir, Lake Lewisville. An established population was detected in Belton Lake in September 2013. With the exception of Louisiana, these occurrences in Texas mark the current southern extent of the range of this species in the United States. Previous studies indicate that zebra mussel populations could be affected by environmental conditions, especially increased temperatures and extreme droughts, which are characteristic of surface waters of the southern and southwestern United States. Data collected during the first three years (2010–12) of a long-term monitoring program were analyzed to determine if spatio-temporal zebra mussel spawning and larval dynamics were related to physicochemical water properties in Lake Texoma. Reproductive output of the local population was significantly related to water temperature and lake elevation. Estimated mean date of first spawn in Lake Texoma was approximately 1.5 months earlier and peak veliger densities were observed two months earlier than in Lake Erie. Annual maximum veliger density declined significantly during the study period (p < 0.0001). A population crash occurred as a result of thermal stress and variability of lake elevation. In summer 2011, water temperatures peaked at 34.3°C and lake elevation declined to the lowest level recorded during the previous 18 years, which resulted in desiccation of substantial numbers of settled mussels in littoral zones. Veliger spatial distributions were associated with physicochemical stratification characteristics. Veligers were observed in the deepest oxygenated water after lake stratification, which occurred in late spring. Results of this study indicate environmental conditions can influence variability of population sizes and spatial distributions of zebra mussels along the current southern frontier of their geographic range. Although the future population size trajectory and geographic range are uncertain, increased temperatures and intermittent, extreme droughts likely will affect spatio-temporal dynamics of established populations if zebra mussels spread farther into the southern and southwestern United States.

Trap configuration and spacing influences parameter estimates in spatial capture-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sun, Catherine C.; Fuller, Angela K.; Royle, J. Andrew

2014-01-01

An increasing number of studies employ spatial capture-recapture models to estimate population size, but there has been limited research on how different spatial sampling designs and trap configurations influence parameter estimators. Spatial capture-recapture models provide an advantage over non-spatial models by explicitly accounting for heterogeneous detection probabilities among individuals that arise due to the spatial organization of individuals relative to sampling devices. We simulated black bear (Ursus americanus) populations and spatial capture-recapture data to evaluate the influence of trap configuration and trap spacing on estimates of population size and a spatial scale parameter, sigma, that relates to home range size. We varied detection probability and home range size, and considered three trap configurations common to large-mammal mark-recapture studies: regular spacing, clustered, and a temporal sequence of different cluster configurations (i.e., trap relocation). We explored trap spacing and number of traps per cluster by varying the number of traps. The clustered arrangement performed well when detection rates were low, and provides for easier field implementation than the sequential trap arrangement. However, performance differences between trap configurations diminished as home range size increased. Our simulations suggest it is important to consider trap spacing relative to home range sizes, with traps ideally spaced no more than twice the spatial scale parameter. While spatial capture-recapture models can accommodate different sampling designs and still estimate parameters with accuracy and precision, our simulations demonstrate that aspects of sampling design, namely trap configuration and spacing, must consider study area size, ranges of individual movement, and home range sizes in the study population.

Population Size, Growth, and Environmental Justice Near Oil and Gas Wells in Colorado.

PubMed

McKenzie, Lisa M; Allshouse, William B; Burke, Troy; Blair, Benjamin D; Adgate, John L

2016-11-01

We evaluated population size and factors influencing environmental justice near oil and gas (O&G) wells. We mapped nearest O&G well to residential properties to evaluate population size, temporal relationships between housing and O&G development, and 2012 housing market value distributions in three major Colorado O&G basins. We reviewed land use, building, real estate, and state O&G regulations to evaluate distributive and participatory justice. We found that by 2012 at least 378,000 Coloradans lived within 1 mile of an active O&G well, and this population was growing at a faster rate than the overall population. In the Denver Julesburg and San Juan basins, which experienced substantial O&G development prior to 2000, we observed a larger proportion of lower value homes within 500 feet of an O&G well and that most O&G wells predated houses. In the Piceance Basin, which had not experienced substantial prior O&G development, we observed a larger proportion of high value homes within 500 feet of an O&G well and that most houses predated O&G wells. We observed economic, rural, participatory, and/or distributive injustices that could contribute to health risk vulnerabilities in populations near O&G wells. We encourage policy makers to consider measures to reduce these injustices.

Subsidence Monitoring in Seville (S Spain) Using Multi-Temporal InSAR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Armenteros, Antonio M.; Ruiz-Constan, Ana; Lamas-Fernandez, Francisco; Galindo-Zaldivar, Jesus; Sousa, Joaquim J.; Sanz de Galdeano, Carlos; Delgado, Manuel J.; Pedrera-Parias, Antonio; Martos-Rosillo, Sergio; Gil, Antonio J.; Caro-Cuenca, Miguel; Hanssen, Ramon F.

2016-08-01

Seville, with a metropolitan population of about 1.5 million, is the capital and largest city of Andalusia (S Spain). It is the 30th most populous municipality in the European Union and contains three UNESCO World Heritage Sites. The Seville harbour, located about 80 km from the Atlantic Ocean, is the only river port in Spain. The city is located on the plain of the Guadalquivir River. Using Multi-Temporal InSAR with ERS-1/2 and Envisat data a subsidence behavior is detected in the period 1992-2010. The geometry of the subsiding areas suggests that it should be conditioned by the fluvial dynamics of the Guadalquivir River and its tributaries. Facies distribution along the fluvial system (paleochannels, flood plains...), with different grain size and matrix proportion, may explain the relative subsidence between the different sectors.

A stochastic-field description of finite-size spiking neural networks

PubMed Central

Longtin, André

2017-01-01

Neural network dynamics are governed by the interaction of spiking neurons. Stochastic aspects of single-neuron dynamics propagate up to the network level and shape the dynamical and informational properties of the population. Mean-field models of population activity disregard the finite-size stochastic fluctuations of network dynamics and thus offer a deterministic description of the system. Here, we derive a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) describing the temporal evolution of the finite-size refractory density, which represents the proportion of neurons in a given refractory state at any given time. The population activity—the density of active neurons per unit time—is easily extracted from this refractory density. The SPDE includes finite-size effects through a two-dimensional Gaussian white noise that acts both in time and along the refractory dimension. For an infinite number of neurons the standard mean-field theory is recovered. A discretization of the SPDE along its characteristic curves allows direct simulations of the activity of large but finite spiking networks; this constitutes the main advantage of our approach. Linearizing the SPDE with respect to the deterministic asynchronous state allows the theoretical investigation of finite-size activity fluctuations. In particular, analytical expressions for the power spectrum and autocorrelation of activity fluctuations are obtained. Moreover, our approach can be adapted to incorporate multiple interacting populations and quasi-renewal single-neuron dynamics. PMID:28787447

Modeling Global Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Society: Hyperbolic Growth and Historical Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurkina, E. S.

2011-09-01

The global historical processes are under consideration; and laws of global evolution of the world community are studied. The world community is considered as a united complex self-developing and self-organizing system. It supposed that the main driving force of social-economical evolution was the positive feedback between the population size and the level of technological development, which was a cause of growth in blow-up regime both of population and of global economic indexes. The study is supported by the results of mathematical modeling founded on a nonlinear heat equation with a source. Every social-economical epoch characterizes by own specific spatial distributed structures. So the global dynamics of world community during the whole history is investigated throughout the prism of the developing of spatial-temporal structures. The model parameters have been chosen so that 1) total population follows stable hyperbolic growth, consistently with the demographic data; 2) the evolution of the World-System goes through 11 stages corresponding to the main historical epochs.

A fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model for population viability analysis of fish: Lower Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wildhaber, Mark L.; Albers, Janice; Green, Nicholas; Moran, Edward H.

2017-01-01

We develop a fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model suitable for population viability analysis (PVA) of fish and demonstrate its use with the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) of the Lower Missouri River as an example. The model incorporates three levels of variance: parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level, temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations over time) applied at the time-step level, and implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) applied within the time-step level. We found that population dynamics were most sensitive to survival rates, particularly age-2+ survival, and to fecundity-at-length. The inclusion of variance (unpartitioned or partitioned), stocking, or both generally decreased the influence of individual parameters on population growth rate. The partitioning of variance into parameter and temporal components had a strong influence on the importance of individual parameters, uncertainty of model predictions, and quasiextinction risk (i.e., pallid sturgeon population size falling below 50 age-1+ individuals). Our findings show that appropriately applying variance in PVA is important when evaluating the relative importance of parameters, and reinforce the need for better and more precise estimates of crucial life-history parameters for pallid sturgeon.

Reduced body size and cub recruitment in polar bears associated with sea ice decline.

PubMed

Rode, Karyn D; Amstrup, Steven C; Regehr, Eric V

2010-04-01

Rates of reproduction and survival are dependent upon adequate body size and condition of individuals. Declines in size and condition have provided early indicators of population decline in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) near the southern extreme of their range. We tested whether patterns in body size, condition, and cub recruitment of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea of Alaska were related to the availability of preferred sea ice habitats and whether these measures and habitat availability exhibited trends over time, between 1982 and 2006. The mean skull size and body length of all polar bears over three years of age declined over time, corresponding with long-term declines in the spatial and temporal availability of sea ice habitat. Body size of young, growing bears declined over time and was smaller after years when sea ice availability was reduced. Reduced litter mass and numbers of yearlings per female following years with lower availability of optimal sea ice habitat, suggest reduced reproductive output and juvenile survival. These results, based on analysis of a long-term data set, suggest that declining sea ice is associated with nutritional limitations that reduced body size and reproduction in this population.

Reduced body size and cub recruitment in polar bears associated with sea ice decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rode, Karyn D.; Amstrup, Steven C.; Regehr, Eric V.

2010-01-01

Rates of reproduction and survival are dependent upon adequate body size and condition of individuals. Declines in size and condition have provided early indicators of population decline in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) near the southern extreme of their range. We tested whether patterns in body size, condition, and cub recruitment of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea of Alaska were related to the availability of preferred sea ice habitats and whether these measures and habitat availability exhibited trends over time, between 1982 and 2006. The mean skull size and body length of all polar bears over three years of age declined over time, corresponding with long‐term declines in the spatial and temporal availability of sea ice habitat. Body size of young, growing bears declined over time and was smaller after years when sea ice availability was reduced. Reduced litter mass and numbers of yearlings per female following years with lower availability of optimal sea ice habitat, suggest reduced reproductive output and juvenile survival. These results, based on analysis of a long‐term data set, suggest that declining sea ice is associated with nutritional limitations that reduced body size and reproduction in this population.

Phenotypic selection in natural populations: what limits directional selection?

PubMed

Kingsolver, Joel G; Diamond, Sarah E

2011-03-01

Studies of phenotypic selection document directional selection in many natural populations. What factors reduce total directional selection and the cumulative evolutionary responses to selection? We combine two data sets for phenotypic selection, representing more than 4,600 distinct estimates of selection from 143 studies, to evaluate the potential roles of fitness trade-offs, indirect (correlated) selection, temporally varying selection, and stabilizing selection for reducing net directional selection and cumulative responses to selection. We detected little evidence that trade-offs among different fitness components reduced total directional selection in most study systems. Comparisons of selection gradients and selection differentials suggest that correlated selection frequently reduced total selection on size but not on other types of traits. The direction of selection on a trait often changes over time in many temporally replicated studies, but these fluctuations have limited impact in reducing cumulative directional selection in most study systems. Analyses of quadratic selection gradients indicated stabilizing selection on body size in at least some studies but provided little evidence that stabilizing selection is more common than disruptive selection for most traits or study systems. Our analyses provide little evidence that fitness trade-offs, correlated selection, or stabilizing selection strongly constrains the directional selection reported for most quantitative traits.

Muddled or mixed? Inferring palaeoclimate from size distributions of deep-sea clastics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weltje, G. J.; Prins, M. A.

2003-04-01

One of the outstanding problems of palaeoclimate reconstruction from physico-chemical properties of terrigenous deep-sea sediments is the fact that most basin fills are mixtures of sediment populations derived from different sources and transported to the site of deposition by different mechanisms. Conventional approaches to palaeoclimate reconstruction from deep-sea sediments, which ignore this common fact, often fail to recognise the true significance of variations in sediment properties. We formulate a set of requirements that each proposed palaeoenvironmental indicator should fulfil, and focus on the intrinsic coupling between grain size and chemical composition. A critical review of past achievements in grain-size analysis is given to provide a starting point for a conceptual model of spatio-temporal grain-size variation in terms of dynamic populations. Each dynamic population results from a characteristic combination of production and transport mechanisms that corresponds to a distinct subpopulation in the data analysed. The mathematical-statistical equivalent of the conceptual model may be solved by means of the end-member modelling algorithm EMMA. Applications of the model to several ocean basins are discussed, as well as methods to examine the validity of the palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Size-dependent diffusion promotes the emergence of spatiotemporal patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lai; Thygesen, Uffe Høgsbro; Banerjee, Malay

2014-07-01

Spatiotemporal patterns, indicating the spatiotemporal variability of individual abundance, are a pronounced scenario in ecological interactions. Most of the existing models for spatiotemporal patterns treat species as homogeneous groups of individuals with average characteristics by ignoring intraspecific physiological variations at the individual level. Here we explore the impacts of size variation within species resulting from individual ontogeny, on the emergence of spatiotemporal patterns in a fully size-structured population model. We found that size dependency of animal's diffusivity greatly promotes the formation of spatiotemporal patterns, by creating regular spatiotemporal patterns out of temporal chaos. We also found that size-dependent diffusion can substitute large-amplitude base harmonics with spatiotemporal patterns with lower amplitude oscillations but with enriched harmonics. Finally, we found that the single-generation cycle is more likely to drive spatiotemporal patterns compared to predator-prey cycles, meaning that the mechanism of Hopf bifurcation might be more common than hitherto appreciated since the former cycle is more widespread than the latter in case of interacting populations. Due to the ubiquity of individual ontogeny in natural ecosystems we conclude that diffusion variability within populations is a significant driving force for the emergence of spatiotemporal patterns. Our results offer a perspective on self-organized phenomena, and pave a way to understand such phenomena in systems organized as complex ecological networks.

Early signs of recovery of Acropora palmata in St. John, US Virgin Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muller, E.M.; Rogers, Caroline S.; van Woesik, R.

2014-01-01

Since the 1980s, diseases have caused significant declines in the population of the threatened Caribbean coral Acropora palmata. Yet it is largely unknown whether the population densities have recovered from these declines and whether there have been any recent shifts in size-frequency distributions toward large colonies. It is also unknown whether colony size influences the risk of disease infection, the most common stressor affecting this species. To address these unknowns, we examined A. palmata colonies at ten sites around St. John, US Virgin Islands, in 2004 and 2010. The prevalence of white-pox disease was highly variable among sites, ranging from 0 to 53 %, and this disease preferentially targeted large colonies. We found that colony density did not significantly change over the 6-year period, although six out of ten sites showed higher densities through time. The size-frequency distributions of coral colonies at all sites were positively skewed in both 2004 and 2010, however, most sites showed a temporal shift toward more large-sized colonies. This increase in large-sized colonies occurred despite the presence of white-pox disease, a severe bleaching event, and several storms. This study provides evidence of slow recovery of the A. palmata population around St. John despite the persistence of several stressors.

Accounting for randomness in measurement and sampling in studying cancer cell population dynamics.

PubMed

Ghavami, Siavash; Wolkenhauer, Olaf; Lahouti, Farshad; Ullah, Mukhtar; Linnebacher, Michael

2014-10-01

Knowing the expected temporal evolution of the proportion of different cell types in sample tissues gives an indication about the progression of the disease and its possible response to drugs. Such systems have been modelled using Markov processes. We here consider an experimentally realistic scenario in which transition probabilities are estimated from noisy cell population size measurements. Using aggregated data of FACS measurements, we develop MMSE and ML estimators and formulate two problems to find the minimum number of required samples and measurements to guarantee the accuracy of predicted population sizes. Our numerical results show that the convergence mechanism of transition probabilities and steady states differ widely from the real values if one uses the standard deterministic approach for noisy measurements. This provides support for our argument that for the analysis of FACS data one should consider the observed state as a random variable. The second problem we address is about the consequences of estimating the probability of a cell being in a particular state from measurements of small population of cells. We show how the uncertainty arising from small sample sizes can be captured by a distribution for the state probability.

Individual-based modelling of population growth and diffusion in discrete time.

PubMed

Tkachenko, Natalie; Weissmann, John D; Petersen, Wesley P; Lake, George; Zollikofer, Christoph P E; Callegari, Simone

2017-01-01

Individual-based models (IBMs) of human populations capture spatio-temporal dynamics using rules that govern the birth, behavior, and death of individuals. We explore a stochastic IBM of logistic growth-diffusion with constant time steps and independent, simultaneous actions of birth, death, and movement that approaches the Fisher-Kolmogorov model in the continuum limit. This model is well-suited to parallelization on high-performance computers. We explore its emergent properties with analytical approximations and numerical simulations in parameter ranges relevant to human population dynamics and ecology, and reproduce continuous-time results in the limit of small transition probabilities. Our model prediction indicates that the population density and dispersal speed are affected by fluctuations in the number of individuals. The discrete-time model displays novel properties owing to the binomial character of the fluctuations: in certain regimes of the growth model, a decrease in time step size drives the system away from the continuum limit. These effects are especially important at local population sizes of <50 individuals, which largely correspond to group sizes of hunter-gatherers. As an application scenario, we model the late Pleistocene dispersal of Homo sapiens into the Americas, and discuss the agreement of model-based estimates of first-arrival dates with archaeological dates in dependence of IBM model parameter settings.

Remotely measuring populations during a crisis by overlaying two data sources

PubMed Central

Bharti, Nita; Lu, Xin; Bengtsson, Linus; Wetter, Erik; Tatem, Andrew J.

2015-01-01

Background Societal instability and crises can cause rapid, large-scale movements. These movements are poorly understood and difficult to measure but strongly impact health. Data on these movements are important for planning response efforts. We retrospectively analyzed movement patterns surrounding a 2010 humanitarian crisis caused by internal political conflict in Côte d'Ivoire using two different methods. Methods We used two remote measures, nighttime lights satellite imagery and anonymized mobile phone call detail records, to assess average population sizes as well as dynamic population changes. These data sources detect movements across different spatial and temporal scales. Results The two data sources showed strong agreement in average measures of population sizes. Because the spatiotemporal resolution of the data sources differed, we were able to obtain measurements on long- and short-term dynamic elements of populations at different points throughout the crisis. Conclusions Using complementary, remote data sources to measure movement shows promise for future use in humanitarian crises. We conclude with challenges of remotely measuring movement and provide suggestions for future research and methodological developments. PMID:25733558

Fish population studies using parasites from the Southeastern Pacific Ocean: considering host population changes and species body size as sources of variability of parasite communities.

PubMed

George-Nascimento, Mario; Oliva, Marcelo

2015-01-01

Research using parasites in fish population studies in the South Eastern Pacific (SEP) is summarized. There are 27 such studies (snapshots mainly) in single host species sampled at different geographic localities and at somewhat similar times. They have been devoted mainly to economically important species, though others on coastal and intertidal fish or on less- or non-commercial species provide insights on scales of temporal and spatial variation of parasite infracommunities. Later, we assess whether the probability of harbouring parasites depends on the host species body size. Our results indicate that a stronger tool for fish population studies may be developed under regular (long term) scrutiny of parasite communities, especially of small fish host species, due to their larger variability in richness, abundance and total biomass, than in large fish species. Finally, it might also be necessary to consider the effects of fishing on parasite communities as well as the natural oscillations (coupled or not) of host and parasite populations.

Discrimination of fish populations using parasites: Random Forests on a 'predictable' host-parasite system.

PubMed

Pérez-Del-Olmo, A; Montero, F E; Fernández, M; Barrett, J; Raga, J A; Kostadinova, A

2010-10-01

We address the effect of spatial scale and temporal variation on model generality when forming predictive models for fish assignment using a new data mining approach, Random Forests (RF), to variable biological markers (parasite community data). Models were implemented for a fish host-parasite system sampled along the Mediterranean and Atlantic coasts of Spain and were validated using independent datasets. We considered 2 basic classification problems in evaluating the importance of variations in parasite infracommunities for assignment of individual fish to their populations of origin: multiclass (2-5 population models, using 2 seasonal replicates from each of the populations) and 2-class task (using 4 seasonal replicates from 1 Atlantic and 1 Mediterranean population each). The main results are that (i) RF are well suited for multiclass population assignment using parasite communities in non-migratory fish; (ii) RF provide an efficient means for model cross-validation on the baseline data and this allows sample size limitations in parasite tag studies to be tackled effectively; (iii) the performance of RF is dependent on the complexity and spatial extent/configuration of the problem; and (iv) the development of predictive models is strongly influenced by seasonal change and this stresses the importance of both temporal replication and model validation in parasite tagging studies.

Object size determines the spatial spread of visual time

PubMed Central

McGraw, Paul V.; Roach, Neil W.; Whitaker, David

2016-01-01

A key question for temporal processing research is how the nervous system extracts event duration, despite a notable lack of neural structures dedicated to duration encoding. This is in stark contrast with the orderly arrangement of neurons tasked with spatial processing. In this study, we examine the linkage between the spatial and temporal domains. We use sensory adaptation techniques to generate after-effects where perceived duration is either compressed or expanded in the opposite direction to the adapting stimulus' duration. Our results indicate that these after-effects are broadly tuned, extending over an area approximately five times the size of the stimulus. This region is directly related to the size of the adapting stimulus—the larger the adapting stimulus the greater the spatial spread of the after-effect. We construct a simple model to test predictions based on overlapping adapted versus non-adapted neuronal populations and show that our effects cannot be explained by any single, fixed-scale neural filtering. Rather, our effects are best explained by a self-scaled mechanism underpinned by duration selective neurons that also pool spatial information across earlier stages of visual processing. PMID:27466452

Stock enhancement or sea ranching? Insights from monitoring the genetic diversity, relatedness and effective population size in a seeded great scallop population (Pecten maximus).

PubMed

Morvezen, R; Boudry, P; Laroche, J; Charrier, G

2016-09-01

The mass release of hatchery-propagated stocks raises numerous questions concerning its efficiency in terms of local recruitment and effect on the genetic diversity of wild populations. A seeding program, consisting of mass release of hatchery-produced juveniles in the local naturally occurring population of great scallops (Pecten maximus L.), was initiated in the early 1980s in the Bay of Brest (France). The present study aims at evaluating whether this seeding program leads to actual population enhancement, with detectable effects on genetic diversity and effective population size, or consists of sea ranching with limited genetic consequences on the wild stock. To address this question, microsatellite-based genetic monitoring of three hatchery-born and naturally recruited populations was conducted over a 5-year period. Results showed a limited reduction in allelic richness but a strong alteration of allelic frequencies in hatchery populations, while genetic diversity appeared very stable over time in the wild populations. A temporal increase in relatedness was observed in both cultured stock and wild populations. Effective population size (Ne) estimates were low and variable in the wild population. Moreover, the application of the Ryman-Laikre model suggested a high contribution of hatchery-born scallops to the reproductive output of the wild population. Overall, the data suggest that the main objective of the seeding program, which is stock enhancement, is fulfilled. Moreover, gene flow from surrounding populations and/or the reproductive input of undetected sub-populations within the bay may buffer the Ryman-Laikre effect and ensure the retention of the local genetic variability.

Temporal migration patterns between natal locations of ruby-throated hummingbirds (Archilochus colubris) and their Gulf Coast stopover site.

PubMed

Zenzal, Theodore J; Contina, Andrea J; Kelly, Jeffrey F; Moore, Frank R

2018-01-01

Autumn latitudinal migrations generally exhibit one of two different temporal migration patterns: type 1 where southern populations migrate south before northern populations, or type 2 where northern populations overtake southern populations en route . The ruby-throated hummingbird ( Archilochus colubris ) is a species with an expansive breeding range, which allows opportunities to examine variation in the timing of migration. Our objective was to determine a relationship between natal origin of ruby-throated hummingbirds and arrival at a Gulf coast stopover site; and if so, what factors, such as differences in body size across the range as well as the cost of migration, might drive such a pattern. To carry out our objectives, we captured hummingbirds at a coastal stopover site during autumn migration, at which time we collected feathers from juveniles for analysis of hydrogen stable isotopes. Using the hydrogen stable isotope gradient of precipitation across North America and published hydrogen isotope values of feathers from populations of breeding ruby-throated hummingbirds, we assigned migrants to probable natal latitudes. Our results confirm that individuals from across the range (30-50° N) stopover along the Gulf of Mexico and there is a positive relationship between arrival day and latitude, suggesting a type 1 migration pattern. We also found no relationship between fuel load (proxy for migration cost) or fat-free body mass (proxy for body size) and natal latitude. Our results, coupled with previous work on the spatial migration patterns of hummingbirds, show a type 1 chain migration pattern. While the mechanisms we tested do not seem to influence the evolution of migratory patterns, other factors such as resource availability may play a prominent role in the evolution of this migration system.

Body size and extinction risk in terrestrial mammals above the species level.

PubMed

Tomiya, Susumu

2013-12-01

Mammalian body mass strongly correlates with life history and population properties at the scale of mouse to elephant. Large body size is thus often associated with elevated extinction risk. I examined the North American fossil record (28-1 million years ago) of 276 terrestrial genera to uncover the relationship between body size and extinction probability above the species level. Phylogenetic comparative analysis revealed no correlation between sampling-adjusted durations and body masses ranging 7 orders of magnitude, an observation that was corroborated by survival analysis. Most of the ecological and temporal groups within the data set showed the same lack of relationship. Size-biased generic extinctions do not constitute a general feature of the Holarctic mammalian faunas in the Neogene. Rather, accelerated loss of large mammals occurred during intervals that experienced combinations of regional aridification and increased biomic heterogeneity within continents. The latter phenomenon is consistent with the macroecological prediction that large geographic ranges are critical to the survival of large mammals in evolutionary time. The frequent lack of size selectivity in generic extinctions can be reconciled with size-biased species loss if extinctions of large and small mammals at the species level are often driven by ecological perturbations of different spatial and temporal scales, while those at the genus level are more synchronized in time as a result of fundamental, multiscale environmental shifts.

Constancy and asynchrony of Osmoderma eremita populations in tree hollows.

PubMed

Ranius, Thomas

2001-01-01

A species rich beetle fauna is associated with old, hollow trees. Many of these species are regarded as endangered, but there is little understanding of the population structure and extinction risks of these species. In this study I show that one of the most endangered beetles, Osmoderma eremita, has a population structure which conforms to that of a metapopulation, with each tree possibly sustaining a local population. This was revealed by performing a mark-release-recapture experiment in 26 trees over a 5-year period. The spatial variability between trees was much greater than temporal variability between years. The population size was on average 11 adults tree -1 year -1 , but differed widely between trees (0-85 adults tree -1 year -1 ). The population size in each tree varied moderately between years [mean coefficient of variation (C.V.)=0.51], but more widely than from sampling errors alone (P=0.008, Monte Carlo simulation). The population size variability in all trees combined, however, was not larger than expected from sampling errors alone in a constant population (C.V.=0.15, P=0.335, Monte Carlo simulation). Thus, the fluctuations of local populations cancel each other out when they are added together. This pattern can arise only when the fluctuations occur asynchronously between trees. The asynchrony of the fluctuations justifies the assumption usually made in metapopulation modelling, that local populations within a metapopulation fluctuate independently of one another. The asynchrony might greatly increase persistence time at the metapopulation level (per stand), compared to the local population level (per tree). The total population size of O. eremita in the study area was estimated to be 3,900 individuals. Other localities sustaining O. eremita are smaller in area, and most of these must be enlarged to allow long-term metapopulation persistence and to satisfy genetic considerations of the O. eremita populations.

Use of remote sensing, geographic information systems, and spatial statistics to assess spatio-temporal population dynamics of Heterodera glycines and soybean yield quantity and quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreira, Antonio Jose De Araujo

Soybean, Glycine max (L.) Merr., is an important source of oil and protein worldwide, and soybean cyst nematode (SCN), Heterodera glycines, is among the most important yield-limiting factors in soybean production worldwide. Early detection of SCN is difficult because soybean plants infected by SCN often do not exhibit visible symptoms. It was hypothesized, however, that reflectance data obtained by remote sensing from soybean canopies may be used to detect plant stress caused by SCN infection. Moreover, reflectance measurements may be related to soybean growth and yield. Two field experiments were conducted from 2000 to 2002 to study the relationships among reflectance data, quantity and quality of soybean yield, and SCN population densities. The best relationships between reflectance and the quantity of soybean grain yield occurred when reflectance data were obtained late August to early September. Similarly, reflectance was best related to seed oil and seed protein content and seed size when measured during late August/early September. Grain quality-reflectance relationships varied spatially and temporally. Reflectance measured early or late in the season had the best relationships with SCN population densities measured at planting. Soil properties likely affected reflectance measurements obtained at the beginning of the season and somehow may have been related to SCN population densities at planting. Reflectance data obtained at the end of the growing season likely was affected by early senescence of SCN-infected soybeans. Spatio-temporal aspects of SCN population densities in both experiments were assessed using spatial statistics and regression analyses. In the 2000 and 2001 growing seasons, spring-to-fall changes in SCN population densities were best related to SCN population densities at planting for both experiments. However, within-season changes in SCN population densities were best related to SCN population densities at harvest for both experiments in 2002. Variograms were fitted to the data to describe the spatial characteristics of SCN population densities in both fields at planting and at harvest from 2000 to 2003 and these parameters varied within seasons and during overwinter periods in both experiments. Distinct relationships between temporal and spatial changes in SCN population densities were not detected.

A Markov model for the temporal dynamics of balanced random networks of finite size

PubMed Central

Lagzi, Fereshteh; Rotter, Stefan

2014-01-01

The balanced state of recurrent networks of excitatory and inhibitory spiking neurons is characterized by fluctuations of population activity about an attractive fixed point. Numerical simulations show that these dynamics are essentially nonlinear, and the intrinsic noise (self-generated fluctuations) in networks of finite size is state-dependent. Therefore, stochastic differential equations with additive noise of fixed amplitude cannot provide an adequate description of the stochastic dynamics. The noise model should, rather, result from a self-consistent description of the network dynamics. Here, we consider a two-state Markovian neuron model, where spikes correspond to transitions from the active state to the refractory state. Excitatory and inhibitory input to this neuron affects the transition rates between the two states. The corresponding nonlinear dependencies can be identified directly from numerical simulations of networks of leaky integrate-and-fire neurons, discretized at a time resolution in the sub-millisecond range. Deterministic mean-field equations, and a noise component that depends on the dynamic state of the network, are obtained from this model. The resulting stochastic model reflects the behavior observed in numerical simulations quite well, irrespective of the size of the network. In particular, a strong temporal correlation between the two populations, a hallmark of the balanced state in random recurrent networks, are well represented by our model. Numerical simulations of such networks show that a log-normal distribution of short-term spike counts is a property of balanced random networks with fixed in-degree that has not been considered before, and our model shares this statistical property. Furthermore, the reconstruction of the flow from simulated time series suggests that the mean-field dynamics of finite-size networks are essentially of Wilson-Cowan type. We expect that this novel nonlinear stochastic model of the interaction between neuronal populations also opens new doors to analyze the joint dynamics of multiple interacting networks. PMID:25520644

Multidisciplinary population monitoring when demographic data are sparse: a case study of remote trout populations

PubMed Central

Fraser, Dylan J; Calvert, Anna M; Bernatchez, Louis; Coon, Andrew

2013-01-01

The potential of genetic, genomic, and phenotypic metrics for monitoring population trends may be especially high in isolated regions, where traditional demographic monitoring is logistically difficult and only sporadic sampling is possible. This potential, however, is relatively underexplored empirically. Over eleven years, we assessed several such metrics along with traditional ecological knowledge and catch data in a socioeconomically important trout species occupying a large, remote lake. The data revealed largely stable characteristics in two populations over 2–3 generations, but possible contemporary changes in a third population. These potential shifts were suggested by reduced catch rates, reduced body size, and changes in selection implied at one gene-associated single nucleotide polymorphism. A demographic decline in this population, however, was ambiguously supported, based on the apparent lack of temporal change in effective population size, and corresponding traditional knowledge suggesting little change in catch. We illustrate how the pluralistic approach employed has practicality for setting future monitoring efforts of these populations, by guiding monitoring priorities according to the relative merits of different metrics and availability of resources. Our study also considers some advantages and disadvantages to adopting a pluralistic approach to population monitoring where demographic data are not easily obtained. PMID:24455128

Spatial, temporal and spatio-temporal clusters of measles incidence at the county level in Guangxi, China during 2004-2014: flexibly shaped scan statistics.

PubMed

Tang, Xianyan; Geater, Alan; McNeil, Edward; Deng, Qiuyun; Dong, Aihu; Zhong, Ge

2017-04-04

Outbreaks of measles re-emerged in Guangxi province during 2013-2014, where measles again became a major public health concern. A better understanding of the patterns of measles cases would help in identifying high-risk areas and periods for optimizing preventive strategies, yet these patterns remain largely unknown. Thus, this study aimed to determine the patterns of measles clusters in space, time and space-time at the county level over the period 2004-2014 in Guangxi. Annual data on measles cases and population sizes for each county were obtained from Guangxi CDC and Guangxi Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Epidemic curves and Kulldorff's temporal scan statistics were used to identify seasonal peaks and high-risk periods. Tango's flexible scan statistics were implemented to determine irregular spatial clusters. Spatio-temporal clusters in elliptical cylinder shapes were detected by Kulldorff's scan statistics. Population attributable risk percent (PAR%) of children aged ≤24 months was used to identify regions with a heavy burden of measles. Seasonal peaks occurred between April and June, and a temporal measles cluster was detected in 2014. Spatial clusters were identified in West, Southwest and North Central Guangxi. Three phases of spatio-temporal clusters with high relative risk were detected: Central Guangxi during 2004-2005, Midwest Guangxi in 2007, and West and Southwest Guangxi during 2013-2014. Regions with high PAR% were mainly clustered in West, Southwest, North and Central Guangxi. A temporal uptrend of measles incidence existed in Guangxi between 2010 and 2014, while downtrend during 2004-2009. The hotspots shifted from Central to West and Southwest Guangxi, regions overburdened with measles. Thus, intensifying surveillance of timeliness and completeness of routine vaccination and implementing supplementary immunization activities for measles should prioritized in these regions.

Rainfall effects on rare annual plants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Levine, J.M.; McEachern, A.K.; Cowan, C.

2008-01-01

Variation in climate is predicted to increase over much of the planet this century. Forecasting species persistence with climate change thus requires understanding of how populations respond to climate variability, and the mechanisms underlying this response. Variable rainfall is well known to drive fluctuations in annual plant populations, yet the degree to which population response is driven by between-year variation in germination cueing, water limitation or competitive suppression is poorly understood.We used demographic monitoring and population models to examine how three seed banking, rare annual plants of the California Channel Islands respond to natural variation in precipitation and their competitive environments. Island plants are particularly threatened by climate change because their current ranges are unlikely to overlap regions that are climatically favourable in the future.Species showed 9 to 100-fold between-year variation in plant density over the 5–12 years of censusing, including a severe drought and a wet El Niño year. During the drought, population sizes were low for all species. However, even in non-drought years, population sizes and per capita growth rates showed considerable temporal variation, variation that was uncorrelated with total rainfall. These population fluctuations were instead correlated with the temperature after the first major storm event of the season, a germination cue for annual plants.Temporal variation in the density of the focal species was uncorrelated with the total vegetative cover in the surrounding community, suggesting that variation in competitive environments does not strongly determine population fluctuations. At the same time, the uncorrelated responses of the focal species and their competitors to environmental variation may favour persistence via the storage effect.Population growth rate analyses suggested differential endangerment of the focal annuals. Elasticity analyses and life table response experiments indicated that variation in germination has the same potential as the seeds produced per germinant to drive variation in population growth rates, but only the former was clearly related to rainfall.Synthesis. Our work suggests that future changes in the timing and temperatures associated with the first major rains, acting through germination, may more strongly affect population persistence than changes in season-long rainfall.

Population dynamics and habitat sharing of natural populations of Caenorhabditis elegans and C. briggsae

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The nematode Caenorhabditis elegans is a major model organism in laboratory biology. Very little is known, however, about its ecology, including where it proliferates. In the past, C. elegans was mainly isolated from human-made compost heaps, where it was overwhelmingly found in the non-feeding dauer diapause stage. Results C. elegans and C. briggsae were found in large, proliferating populations in rotting plant material (fruits and stems) in several locations in mainland France. Both species were found to co-occur in samples isolated from a given plant species. Population counts spanned a range from one to more than 10,000 Caenorhabditis individuals on a single fruit or stem. Some populations with an intermediate census size (10 to 1,000) contained no dauer larvae at all, whereas larger populations always included some larvae in the pre-dauer or dauer stages. We report on associated micro-organisms, including pathogens. We systematically sampled a spatio-temporally structured set of rotting apples in an apple orchard in Orsay over four years. C. elegans and C. briggsae were abundantly found every year, but their temporal distributions did not coincide. C. briggsae was found alone in summer, whereas both species co-occurred in early fall and C. elegans was found alone in late fall. Competition experiments in the laboratory at different temperatures show that C. briggsae out-competes C. elegans at high temperatures, whereas C. elegans out-competes C. briggsae at lower temperatures. Conclusions C. elegans and C. briggsae proliferate in the same rotting vegetal substrates. In contrast to previous surveys of populations in compost heaps, we found fully proliferating populations with no dauer larvae. The temporal sharing of the habitat by the two species coincides with their temperature preference in the laboratory, with C. briggsae populations growing faster than C. elegans at higher temperatures, and vice at lower temperatures. PMID:22731941

The influence of lexical statistics on temporal lobe cortical dynamics during spoken word listening

PubMed Central

Cibelli, Emily S.; Leonard, Matthew K.; Johnson, Keith; Chang, Edward F.

2015-01-01

Neural representations of words are thought to have a complex spatio-temporal cortical basis. It has been suggested that spoken word recognition is not a process of feed-forward computations from phonetic to lexical forms, but rather involves the online integration of bottom-up input with stored lexical knowledge. Using direct neural recordings from the temporal lobe, we examined cortical responses to words and pseudowords. We found that neural populations were not only sensitive to lexical status (real vs. pseudo), but also to cohort size (number of words matching the phonetic input at each time point) and cohort frequency (lexical frequency of those words). These lexical variables modulated neural activity from the posterior to anterior temporal lobe, and also dynamically as the stimuli unfolded on a millisecond time scale. Our findings indicate that word recognition is not purely modular, but relies on rapid and online integration of multiple sources of lexical knowledge. PMID:26072003

A real-world size organization of object responses in occipito-temporal cortex

PubMed Central

Konkle, Talia; Oliva, Aude

2012-01-01

SUMMARY While there are selective regions of occipito-temporal cortex that respond to faces, letters, and bodies, the large-scale neural organization of most object categories remains unknown. Here we find that object representations can be differentiated along the ventral temporal cortex by their real-world size. In a functional neuroimaging experiment, observers were shown pictures of big and small real-world objects (e.g. table, bathtub; paperclip, cup), presented at the same retinal size. We observed a consistent medial-to-lateral organization of big and small object preferences in the ventral temporal cortex, mirrored along the lateral surface. Regions in the lateral-occipital, infero-temporal, and parahippocampal cortices showed strong peaks of differential real-world size selectivity, and maintained these preferences over changes in retinal size and in mental imagery. These data demonstrate that the real-world size of objects can provide insight into the spatial topography of object representation. PMID:22726840

Home ranges of lions in the Kalahari, Botswana exhibit vast sizes and high temporal variability.

PubMed

Zehnder, André; Henley, Stephen; Weibel, Robert

2018-06-01

The central Kalahari region in Botswana is one of the few remaining ecosystems with a stable lion population. Yet, relatively little is known about the ecology of the lions there. As an entry point, home range estimations provide information about the space utilization of the studied animals. The home ranges of eight lions in this region were determined to investigate their spatial overlaps and spatiotemporal variations. We found that, except for MCP, all home range estimators yielded comparable results regarding size and shape. The home ranges of all individuals were located predominantly inside the protected reserves. Their areas were among the largest known for lions with 1131 - 4314km 2 (95%), with no significant differences between males and females. Numerous overlaps between lions of different sexes were detected, although these originate from different groups. A distance chart confirmed that most of these lions directly encountered each other once or several times. Strong temporal variations of the home ranges were observed that did not match a seasonal pattern. The exceptionally large home ranges are likely to be caused by the sparse and dynamic prey populations. Since the ungulates in the study area move in an opportunistic way, too, strong spatiotemporal home range variations emerge. This can lead to misleading home ranges. We therefore recommend clarifying the stability of the home ranges by applying several levels of temporal aggregation. The lack of strict territoriality is likely an adaptation to the variable prey base and the high energetic costs associated with defending a large area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Genetic variation assessed with microsatellites in mass selection lines of the Pacific oyster ( Crassostrea gigas) in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xubo; Li, Qi; Yu, Hong; Kong, Lingfeng

2016-12-01

Four successive mass selection lines of the Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, selected for faster growth in breeding programs in China were examined at ten polymorphic microsatellite loci to assess the level of allelic diversity and estimate the effective population size. These data were compared with those of their base population. The results showed that the genetic variation of the four generations were maintained at high levels with an average allelic richness of 18.8-20.6, and a mean expected heterozygosity of 0.902-0.921. They were not reduced compared with those of their base population. Estimated effective population sizes based on temporal variances in microsatellite frequencies were smaller to that of sex ratio-corrected broodstock count estimates. Using a relatively large number of broodstock and keeping an equal sex ratio in the broodstock each generation may have contributed to retaining the original genetic diversity and maintaining relatively large effective population size. The results obtained in this study showed that the genetic variation was not affected greatly by mass selection progress and high genetic variation still existed in the mass selection lines, suggesting that there is still potential for increasing the gains in future generations of C. gigas. The present study provided important information for future genetic improvement by selective breeding, and for the design of suitable management guidelines for genetic breeding of C. gigas.

The Between-Population Genetic Architecture of Growth, Maturation, and Plasticity in Atlantic Salmon

PubMed Central

Debes, Paul Vincent; Fraser, Dylan John; Yates, Matthew; Hutchings, Jeffrey A.

2014-01-01

The between-population genetic architecture for growth and maturation has not been examined in detail for many animal species despite its central importance in understanding hybrid fitness. We studied the genetic architecture of population divergence in: (i) maturation probabilities at the same age; (ii) size at age and growth, while accounting for maturity status and sex; and (iii) growth plasticity in response to environmental factors, using divergent wild and domesticated Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Our work examined two populations and their multigenerational hybrids in a common experimental arrangement in which salinity and quantity of suspended sediments were manipulated to mimic naturally occurring environmental variation. Average specific growth rates across environments differed among crosses, maturity groups, and cross-by-maturity groups, but a growth-rate reduction in the presence of suspended sediments was equal for all groups. Our results revealed both additive and nonadditive outbreeding effects for size at age and for growth rates that differed with life stage, as well as the presence of different sex- and size-specific maturation probabilities between populations. The major implication of our work is that estimates of the genetic architecture of growth and maturation can be biased if one does not simultaneously account for temporal changes in growth and for different maturation probabilities between populations. Namely, these correlated traits interact differently within each population and between sexes and among generations, due to nonadditive effects and a level of independence in the genetic control for traits. Our results emphasize the challenges to investigating and predicting phenotypic changes resulting from between-population outbreeding. PMID:24473933

The between-population genetic architecture of growth, maturation, and plasticity in Atlantic salmon.

PubMed

Debes, Paul Vincent; Fraser, Dylan John; Yates, Matthew; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-04-01

The between-population genetic architecture for growth and maturation has not been examined in detail for many animal species despite its central importance in understanding hybrid fitness. We studied the genetic architecture of population divergence in: (i) maturation probabilities at the same age; (ii) size at age and growth, while accounting for maturity status and sex; and (iii) growth plasticity in response to environmental factors, using divergent wild and domesticated Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Our work examined two populations and their multigenerational hybrids in a common experimental arrangement in which salinity and quantity of suspended sediments were manipulated to mimic naturally occurring environmental variation. Average specific growth rates across environments differed among crosses, maturity groups, and cross-by-maturity groups, but a growth-rate reduction in the presence of suspended sediments was equal for all groups. Our results revealed both additive and nonadditive outbreeding effects for size at age and for growth rates that differed with life stage, as well as the presence of different sex- and size-specific maturation probabilities between populations. The major implication of our work is that estimates of the genetic architecture of growth and maturation can be biased if one does not simultaneously account for temporal changes in growth and for different maturation probabilities between populations. Namely, these correlated traits interact differently within each population and between sexes and among generations, due to nonadditive effects and a level of independence in the genetic control for traits. Our results emphasize the challenges to investigating and predicting phenotypic changes resulting from between-population outbreeding.

Trapped within the city: integrating demography, time since isolation and population-specific traits to assess the genetic effects of urbanization.

PubMed

Lourenço, André; Álvarez, David; Wang, Ian J; Velo-Antón, Guillermo

2017-03-01

Urbanization is a severe form of habitat fragmentation that can cause many species to be locally extirpated and many others to become trapped and isolated within an urban matrix. The role of drift in reducing genetic diversity and increasing genetic differentiation is well recognized in urban populations. However, explicit incorporation and analysis of the demographic and temporal factors promoting drift in urban environments are poorly studied. Here, we genotyped 15 microsatellites in 320 fire salamanders from the historical city of Oviedo (Est. 8th century) to assess the effects of time since isolation, demographic history (historical effective population size; N e ) and patch size on genetic diversity, population structure and contemporary N e . Our results indicate that urban populations of fire salamanders are highly differentiated, most likely due to the recent N e declines, as calculated in coalescence analyses, concomitant with the urban development of Oviedo. However, urbanization only caused a small loss of genetic diversity. Regression modelling showed that patch size was positively associated with contemporary N e , while we found only moderate support for the effects of demographic history when excluding populations with unresolved history. This highlights the interplay between different factors in determining current genetic diversity and structure. Overall, the results of our study on urban populations of fire salamanders provide some of the very first insights into the mechanisms affecting changes in genetic diversity and population differentiation via drift in urban environments, a crucial subject in a world where increasing urbanization is forecasted. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Fishing-induced life-history changes degrade and destabilize harvested ecosystems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuparinen, Anna; Boit, Alice; Valdovinos, Fernanda S.; Lassaux, Hélène; Martinez, Neo D.

2016-02-01

Fishing is widely known to magnify fluctuations in targeted populations. These fluctuations are correlated with population shifts towards young, small, and more quickly maturing individuals. However, the existence and nature of the mechanistic basis for these correlations and their potential ecosystem impacts remain highly uncertain. Here, we elucidate this basis and associated impacts by showing how fishing can increase fluctuations in fishes and their ecosystem, particularly when coupled with decreasing body sizes and advancing maturation characteristic of the life-history changes induced by fishing. More specifically, using an empirically parameterized network model of a well-studied lake ecosystem, we show how fishing may both increase fluctuations in fish abundances and also, when accompanied by decreasing body size of adults, further decrease fish abundance and increase temporal variability of fishes’ food resources and their ecosystem. In contrast, advanced maturation has relatively little effect except to increase variability in juvenile populations. Our findings illustrate how different mechanisms underlying life-history changes that may arise as evolutionary responses to intensive, size-selective fishing can rapidly and continuously destabilize and degrade ecosystems even after fishing has ceased. This research helps better predict how life-history changes may reduce fishes’ resilience to fishing and ecosystems’ resistance to environmental variations.

Fishing-induced life-history changes degrade and destabilize harvested ecosystems.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Boit, Alice; Valdovinos, Fernanda S; Lassaux, Hélène; Martinez, Neo D

2016-02-26

Fishing is widely known to magnify fluctuations in targeted populations. These fluctuations are correlated with population shifts towards young, small, and more quickly maturing individuals. However, the existence and nature of the mechanistic basis for these correlations and their potential ecosystem impacts remain highly uncertain. Here, we elucidate this basis and associated impacts by showing how fishing can increase fluctuations in fishes and their ecosystem, particularly when coupled with decreasing body sizes and advancing maturation characteristic of the life-history changes induced by fishing. More specifically, using an empirically parameterized network model of a well-studied lake ecosystem, we show how fishing may both increase fluctuations in fish abundances and also, when accompanied by decreasing body size of adults, further decrease fish abundance and increase temporal variability of fishes' food resources and their ecosystem. In contrast, advanced maturation has relatively little effect except to increase variability in juvenile populations. Our findings illustrate how different mechanisms underlying life-history changes that may arise as evolutionary responses to intensive, size-selective fishing can rapidly and continuously destabilize and degrade ecosystems even after fishing has ceased. This research helps better predict how life-history changes may reduce fishes' resilience to fishing and ecosystems' resistance to environmental variations.

Geohistorical records indicate no impact of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on oyster body size

PubMed Central

Durham, Stephen R.

2016-01-01

Documentation of the near- and long-term effects of the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill, one of the largest environmental disasters in US history, is still ongoing. We used a novel before-after-control-impact analysis to test the hypothesis that average body size of intertidal populations of the eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) inhabiting impacted areas in Louisiana decreased due to increased stress/mortality related to the oil spill. Time-averaged death assemblages of oysters were used to establish a pre-spill baseline of body-size structure for four impacted and four control locations along a 350 km stretch of Louisiana's coastline. Post-spill body sizes were then measured from live oysters at each site in order to evaluate the differences in body size between oiled (i.e. impact) and unoiled (i.e. control) locations before and after the spill. Our results indicate that average body size of oysters remained relatively unchanged after the oil spill. There were also no temporal patterns in temperature, salinity or disease prevalence that could have explained our results. Together, these findings suggest that oysters either recovered rapidly following the immediate impact of the DWH oil spill, or that its impact was not severe enough to influence short-term population dynamics of the oyster beds. PMID:28018663

Determinants of genetic structure in a nonequilibrium metapopulation of the plant Silene latifolia.

PubMed

Fields, Peter D; Taylor, Douglas R

2014-01-01

Population genetic differentiation will be influenced by the demographic history of populations, opportunities for migration among neighboring demes and founder effects associated with repeated extinction and recolonization. In natural populations, these factors are expected to interact with each other and their magnitudes will vary depending on the spatial distribution and age structure of local demes. Although each of these effects has been individually identified as important in structuring genetic variance, their relative magnitude is seldom estimated in nature. We conducted a population genetic analysis in a metapopulation of the angiosperm, Silene latifolia, from which we had more than 20 years of data on the spatial distribution, demographic history, and extinction and colonization of demes. We used hierarchical Bayesian methods to disentangle which features of the populations contributed to among population variation in allele frequencies, including the magnitude and direction of their effects. We show that population age, long-term size and degree of connectivity all combine to affect the distribution of genetic variance; small, recently-founded, isolated populations contributed most to increase FST in the metapopulation. However, the effects of population size and population age are best understood as being modulated through the effects of connectivity to other extant populations, i.e. FST diminishes as populations age, but at a rate that depends how isolated the population is. These spatial and temporal correlates of population structure give insight into how migration, founder effect and within-deme genetic drift have combined to enhance and restrict genetic divergence in a natural metapopulation.

Remotely measuring populations during a crisis by overlaying two data sources.

PubMed

Bharti, Nita; Lu, Xin; Bengtsson, Linus; Wetter, Erik; Tatem, Andrew J

2015-03-01

Societal instability and crises can cause rapid, large-scale movements. These movements are poorly understood and difficult to measure but strongly impact health. Data on these movements are important for planning response efforts. We retrospectively analyzed movement patterns surrounding a 2010 humanitarian crisis caused by internal political conflict in Côte d'Ivoire using two different methods. We used two remote measures, nighttime lights satellite imagery and anonymized mobile phone call detail records, to assess average population sizes as well as dynamic population changes. These data sources detect movements across different spatial and temporal scales. The two data sources showed strong agreement in average measures of population sizes. Because the spatiotemporal resolution of the data sources differed, we were able to obtain measurements on long- and short-term dynamic elements of populations at different points throughout the crisis. Using complementary, remote data sources to measure movement shows promise for future use in humanitarian crises. We conclude with challenges of remotely measuring movement and provide suggestions for future research and methodological developments. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

Effects of environmental covariates and density on the catchability of fish populations and interpretation of catch per unit effort trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Korman, Josh; Yard, Mike

2017-01-01

Article for outlet: Fisheries Research. Abstract: Quantifying temporal and spatial trends in abundance or relative abundance is required to evaluate effects of harvest and changes in habitat for exploited and endangered fish populations. In many cases, the proportion of the population or stock that is captured (catchability or capture probability) is unknown but is often assumed to be constant over space and time. We used data from a large-scale mark-recapture study to evaluate the extent of spatial and temporal variation, and the effects of fish density, fish size, and environmental covariates, on the capture probability of rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) in the Colorado River, AZ. Estimates of capture probability for boat electrofishing varied 5-fold across five reaches, 2.8-fold across the range of fish densities that were encountered, 2.1-fold over 19 trips, and 1.6-fold over five fish size classes. Shoreline angle and turbidity were the best covariates explaining variation in capture probability across reaches and trips. Patterns in capture probability were driven by changes in gear efficiency and spatial aggregation, but the latter was more important. Failure to account for effects of fish density on capture probability when translating a historical catch per unit effort time series into a time series of abundance, led to 2.5-fold underestimation of the maximum extent of variation in abundance over the period of record, and resulted in unreliable estimates of relative change in critical years. Catch per unit effort surveys have utility for monitoring long-term trends in relative abundance, but are too imprecise and potentially biased to evaluate population response to habitat changes or to modest changes in fishing effort.

Fishing-induced changes in adult length are mediated by skipped-spawning.

PubMed

Wang, Hui-Yu; Chen, Ying-Shiuan; Hsu, Chien-Chung; Shen, Sheng-Feng

2017-01-01

Elucidating fishing effects on fish population dynamics is a critical step toward sustainable fisheries management. Despite previous studies that have suggested age or size truncation in exploited fish populations, other aspects of fishing effects on population demography, e.g., via altering life histories and density, have received less attention. Here, we investigated the fishing effects altering adult demography via shifting reproductive trade-offs in the iconic, overexploited, Pacific bluefin tuna Thunnus orientalis. We found that, contrary to our expectation, mean lengths of catch increased over time in longline fisheries. On the other hand, mean catch lengths for purse seine fisheries did not show such increasing trends. We hypothesized that the size-dependent energetic cost of the spawning migration and elevated fishing mortality on the spawning grounds potentially drive size-dependent skipped spawning for adult tuna, mediating the observed changes in the catch lengths. Using eco-genetic individual-based modeling, we demonstrated that fishing-induced evolution of skipped spawning and size truncation interacted to shape the observed temporal changes in mean catch lengths for tuna. Skipped spawning of the small adults led to increased mean catch lengths for the longline fisheries, while truncation of small adults by the purse seines could offset such a pattern. Our results highlight the eco-evolutionary dynamics of fishing effects on population demography and caution against using demographic traits as a basis for fisheries management of the Pacific bluefin tuna as well as other migratory species. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

An assessment of sauger population characteristics on two Tennessee River reservoirs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Graham, Christy L.; Bettoli, Phillip William; Churchill, Timothy N.

2015-01-01

In 1992, a 356-mm minimum length limit (MLL) was enacted on Kentucky Lake and a 381-mm MLL was enacted on Watts Bar Lake, two mainstem reservoirs on the Tennessee River, in an attempt to reduce exploitation and improve the size structure of the sauger (Sander canadensis) populations. The objectives of this study were to compare sauger population characteristics immediately following (1993–1994) and 15 years after (2008–2009) the regulations took effect, examine spatial and temporal patterns in growth, examine recruitment patterns in each reservoir using a recruitment variability index (RVI), and assess the current likelihood of overfishing. Saugers were collected with experimental gill nets in each reservoir and aged using otoliths. A Beverton-Holt yield-per-recruit model was used to simulate angler yields and estimate the likelihood of growth overfishing. Recruitment overfishing was assessed by examining spawning potential ratios under various MLL and exploitation rate scenarios. The sauger population in Kentucky Lake experienced modest improvements in size and age structure over the 15 years following enactment of more restrictive harvest regulations, whereas the population in Watts Bar Lake changed very little, if at all, in terms of size and age structure. Mean lengths of age-3 sauger were significantly greater in Watts Bar Lake than in Kentucky Lake in both time periods. The RVI values indicated that between 1993 and 2009 the sauger in Kentucky Lake displayed more stable recruitment than the Watts Bar Lake population. Neither population exhibited signs of growth overfishing in 2008–09 under the current length limits; however, the Watts Bar Lake population would be susceptible to recruitment overfishing at high (>40%) exploitation rates if natural mortality was as low as 20%. These analyses have demonstrated that the Watts Bar Lake and Kentucky Lake populations, in terms of size and age structure, have remained relatively stable over 15+ years and the MLLs appear to be conserving the stocks.

Dynamic size responses to climate change: prevailing effects of rising temperature drive long-term body size increases in a semi-arid passerine.

PubMed

Gardner, Janet L; Amano, Tatsuya; Mackey, Brendan G; Sutherland, William J; Clayton, Mark; Peters, Anne

2014-07-01

Changes in animal body size have been widely reported as a correlate of contemporary climate change. Body size affects metabolism and fitness, so changing size has implications for resilience, yet the climatic factors that drive size variation remain poorly understood. We test the role of mean and extreme temperature, rainfall, and remotely sensed primary productivity (NDVI) as drivers of body size in a sedentary, semi-arid Australian passerine, Ptilotula (Lichenostomus)penicillatus, over 23 years. To distinguish effects due to differential growth from changes in population composition, we analysed first-year birds and adults separately and considered climatic variation at three temporal scales (current, previous, and preceding 5 years). The strongest effects related to temperature: in both age classes, larger size was associated with warmer mean temperatures in the previous year, contrary to Bergmann's Rule. Moreover, adults were larger in warmer breeding seasons, while first years was larger after heat waves; these effects are more likely to be mediated through size-dependent mortality, highlighting the role of body size in determining vulnerability to extinction. In addition to temperature, larger adult size was associated with lower primary productivity, which may reflect a trade-off between vegetative growth and nectar production, on which adults rely. Finally, lower rainfall was associated with decreasing size in first year and adults, most likely related to decreased food availability. Overall,body size increased over 23 years, strongly in first-year birds (2.7%) compared with adults (1%), with size outcomes a balance between competing drivers. As rainfall declined over time and productivity remained fairly stable, the temporal increase in body size appears largely driven by rising mean temperature and temperature extremes. Body size responses to environmental change are thus complex and dynamic, driven by effects on growth as well as mortality.

Space Use of African Wild Dogs in Relation to Other Large Carnivores

PubMed Central

Darnell, Angela M.; Graf, Jan A.; Somers, Michael J.; Slotow, Rob; Szykman Gunther, Micaela

2014-01-01

Interaction among species through competition is a principle process structuring ecological communities, affecting behavior, distribution, and ultimately the population dynamics of species. High competition among large African carnivores, associated with extensive diet overlap, manifests in interactions between subordinate African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) and dominant lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta). Using locations of large carnivores in Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa, we found different responses from wild dogs to their two main competitors. Wild dogs avoided lions, particularly during denning, through a combination of spatial and temporal avoidance. However, wild dogs did not exhibit spatial or temporal avoidance of spotted hyenas, likely because wild dog pack sizes were large enough to adequately defend their kills. Understanding that larger carnivores affect the movements and space use of other carnivores is important for managing current small and fragmented carnivore populations, especially as reintroductions and translocations are essential tools used for the survival of endangered species, as with African wild dogs. PMID:24896638

Space use of African wild dogs in relation to other large carnivores.

PubMed

Darnell, Angela M; Graf, Jan A; Somers, Michael J; Slotow, Rob; Szykman Gunther, Micaela

2014-01-01

Interaction among species through competition is a principle process structuring ecological communities, affecting behavior, distribution, and ultimately the population dynamics of species. High competition among large African carnivores, associated with extensive diet overlap, manifests in interactions between subordinate African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) and dominant lions (Panthera leo) and spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta). Using locations of large carnivores in Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park, South Africa, we found different responses from wild dogs to their two main competitors. Wild dogs avoided lions, particularly during denning, through a combination of spatial and temporal avoidance. However, wild dogs did not exhibit spatial or temporal avoidance of spotted hyenas, likely because wild dog pack sizes were large enough to adequately defend their kills. Understanding that larger carnivores affect the movements and space use of other carnivores is important for managing current small and fragmented carnivore populations, especially as reintroductions and translocations are essential tools used for the survival of endangered species, as with African wild dogs.

Temporal genetic structure in a poecilogonous polychaete: the interplay of developmental mode and environmental stochasticity

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Temporal variation in the genetic structure of populations can be caused by multiple factors, including natural selection, stochastic environmental variation, migration, or genetic drift. In benthic marine species, the developmental mode of larvae may indicate a possibility for temporal genetic variation: species with dispersive planktonic larvae are expected to be more likely to show temporal genetic variation than species with benthic or brooded non-dispersive larvae, due to differences in larval mortality and dispersal ability. We examined temporal genetic structure in populations of Pygospio elegans, a poecilogonous polychaete with within-species variation in developmental mode. P. elegans produces either planktonic, benthic, or intermediate larvae, varying both among and within populations, providing a within-species test of the generality of a relationship between temporal genetic variation and larval developmental mode. Results In contrast to our expectations, our microsatellite analyses of P. elegans revealed temporal genetic stability in the UK population with planktonic larvae, whereas there was variation indicative of drift in temporal samples of the populations from the Baltic Sea, which have predominantly benthic and intermediate larvae. We also detected temporal variation in relatedness within these populations. A large temporal shift in genetic structure was detected in a population from the Netherlands, having multiple developmental modes. This shift could have been caused by local extiction due to extreme environmental conditions and (re)colonization by planktonic larvae from neighboring populations. Conclusions In our study of P. elegans, temporal genetic variation appears to be due to not only larval developmental mode, but also the stochastic environment of adults. Large temporal genetic shifts may be more likely in marine intertidal habitats (e.g. North Sea and Wadden Sea) which are more prone to environmental stochasticity than the sub-tidal Baltic habitats. Sub-tidal and/or brackish (less saline) habitats may support smaller P. elegans populations and these may be more susceptible to the effects of random genetic drift. Moreover, higher frequencies of asexual reproduction and the benthic larval developmental mode in these populations leads to higher relatedness and contributes to drift. Our results indicate that a general relationship between larval developmental mode and temporal genetic variation may not exist. PMID:24447386

Temporal genetic structure in a poecilogonous polychaete: the interplay of developmental mode and environmental stochasticity.

PubMed

Kesäniemi, Jenni E; Mustonen, Marina; Boström, Christoffer; Hansen, Benni W; Knott, K Emily

2014-01-22

Temporal variation in the genetic structure of populations can be caused by multiple factors, including natural selection, stochastic environmental variation, migration, or genetic drift. In benthic marine species, the developmental mode of larvae may indicate a possibility for temporal genetic variation: species with dispersive planktonic larvae are expected to be more likely to show temporal genetic variation than species with benthic or brooded non-dispersive larvae, due to differences in larval mortality and dispersal ability. We examined temporal genetic structure in populations of Pygospio elegans, a poecilogonous polychaete with within-species variation in developmental mode. P. elegans produces either planktonic, benthic, or intermediate larvae, varying both among and within populations, providing a within-species test of the generality of a relationship between temporal genetic variation and larval developmental mode. In contrast to our expectations, our microsatellite analyses of P. elegans revealed temporal genetic stability in the UK population with planktonic larvae, whereas there was variation indicative of drift in temporal samples of the populations from the Baltic Sea, which have predominantly benthic and intermediate larvae. We also detected temporal variation in relatedness within these populations. A large temporal shift in genetic structure was detected in a population from the Netherlands, having multiple developmental modes. This shift could have been caused by local extiction due to extreme environmental conditions and (re)colonization by planktonic larvae from neighboring populations. In our study of P. elegans, temporal genetic variation appears to be due to not only larval developmental mode, but also the stochastic environment of adults. Large temporal genetic shifts may be more likely in marine intertidal habitats (e.g. North Sea and Wadden Sea) which are more prone to environmental stochasticity than the sub-tidal Baltic habitats. Sub-tidal and/or brackish (less saline) habitats may support smaller P. elegans populations and these may be more susceptible to the effects of random genetic drift. Moreover, higher frequencies of asexual reproduction and the benthic larval developmental mode in these populations leads to higher relatedness and contributes to drift. Our results indicate that a general relationship between larval developmental mode and temporal genetic variation may not exist.

Climate warming is associated with smaller body size and shorter lifespans in moose near their southern range limit.

PubMed

Hoy, Sarah R; Peterson, Rolf O; Vucetich, John A

2018-06-01

Despite the importance of body size for individual fitness, population dynamics and community dynamics, the influence of climate change on growth and body size is inadequately understood, particularly for long-lived vertebrates. Although temporal trends in body size have been documented, it remains unclear whether these changes represent the adverse impact of climate change (environmental stress constraining phenotypes) or its mitigation (via phenotypic plasticity or evolution). Concerns have also been raised about whether climate change is indeed the causal agent of these phenotypic shifts, given the length of time-series analysed and that studies often do not evaluate - and thereby sufficiently rule out - other potential causes. Here, we evaluate evidence for climate-related changes in adult body size (indexed by skull size) over a 4-decade period for a population of moose (Alces alces) near the southern limit of their range whilst also considering changes in density, predation, and human activities. In particular, we document: (i) a trend of increasing winter temperatures and concurrent decline in skull size (decline of 19% for males and 13% for females) and (ii) evidence of a negative relationship between skull size and winter temperatures during the first year of life. These patterns could be plausibly interpreted as an adaptive phenotypic response to climate warming given that latitudinal/temperature clines are often accepted as evidence of adaptation to local climate. However, we also observed: (iii) that moose with smaller skulls had shorter lifespans, (iv) a reduction in lifespan over the 4-decade study period, and (v) a negative relationship between lifespan and winter temperatures during the first year of life. Those observations indicate that this phenotypic change is not an adaptive response to climate change. However, this decline in lifespan was not accompanied by an obvious change in population dynamics, suggesting that climate change may affect population dynamics and life-histories differently. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mutation load and the extinction of large populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardes, A. T.

1996-02-01

In the time evolution of finite populations, the accumulation of harmful mutations in further generations might lead to a temporal decay in the mean fitness of the whole population that, after sufficient time, would reduce population size and so lead to extinction. This joint action of mutation load and population reduction is called Mutational Meltdown and is usually considered only to occur in small asexual or very small sexual populations. However, the problem of extinction cannot be discussed in a proper way if one previously assumes the existence of an equilibrium state, as initially discussed in this paper. By performing simulations in a genetically inspired model for time-changing populations, we show that mutational meltdown also occurs in large asexual populations and that the mean time to extinction is a nonmonotonic function of the selection coefficient. The stochasticity of the extinction process is also discussed. The extinction of small sexual N ∼ 700 populations is shown and our results confirm the assumption that the existence of recombination might be a powerful mechanism to avoid extinction.

Comparison of Drive Counts and Mark-Resight As Methods of Population Size Estimation of Highly Dense Sika Deer (Cervus nippon) Populations.

PubMed

Takeshita, Kazutaka; Ikeda, Takashi; Takahashi, Hiroshi; Yoshida, Tsuyoshi; Igota, Hiromasa; Matsuura, Yukiko; Kaji, Koichi

2016-01-01

Assessing temporal changes in abundance indices is an important issue in the management of large herbivore populations. The drive counts method has been frequently used as a deer abundance index in mountainous regions. However, despite an inherent risk for observation errors in drive counts, which increase with deer density, evaluations of the utility of drive counts at a high deer density remain scarce. We compared the drive counts and mark-resight (MR) methods in the evaluation of a highly dense sika deer population (MR estimates ranged between 11 and 53 individuals/km2) on Nakanoshima Island, Hokkaido, Japan, between 1999 and 2006. This deer population experienced two large reductions in density; approximately 200 animals in total were taken from the population through a large-scale population removal and a separate winter mass mortality event. Although the drive counts tracked temporal changes in deer abundance on the island, they overestimated the counts for all years in comparison to the MR method. Increased overestimation in drive count estimates after the winter mass mortality event may be due to a double count derived from increased deer movement and recovery of body condition secondary to the mitigation of density-dependent food limitations. Drive counts are unreliable because they are affected by unfavorable factors such as bad weather, and they are cost-prohibitive to repeat, which precludes the calculation of confidence intervals. Therefore, the use of drive counts to infer the deer abundance needs to be reconsidered.

Spatial and temporal patterns of North Carolina pedestrian and bicycle plans.

PubMed

Aytur, Semra A; Rodriguez, Daniel A; Kerr, Zachary Y; Ji, Kai; Evenson, Kelly R

2013-01-01

Pedestrian and bicycle plans support community-level physical activity. In North Carolina, pedestrian/bicycle plans are becoming more prevalent. However, no studies have examined the spatial and temporal diffusion of pedestrian/bicycle plans. This study assessed (a) temporal trends associated with municipal pedestrian/bicycle planning from 1974 to 2011 and (b) spatial patterns associated with municipal plans, specifically, whether the publication of a pedestrian/bicycle plan in a given year was associated with the number of neighboring municipalities with plans. North Carolina from 1974 to 2011. The main outcome was date of publication of all North Carolina municipal pedestrian and bicycle plans (1974-2011). We calculated Euclidean distances from each municipality center to all other municipality centers to derive whether municipalities were within 20 and 50 miles of each other. Sociodemographic covariates (eg, education, grant funding status, poverty, urbanicity, racial composition, population size, population growth) were collected from the US Census of Population (1980-2010) and the American Community Survey (2006-2010). Time series models fitted by generalized estimating equations were used to assess relationships between plan presence and the temporal and spatial predictor variables. The number of pedestrian and bicycle plans significantly increased over time, especially after 2006 when a state grant funding program was initiated. Unadjusted models indicated that municipalities were significantly more likely to have a pedestrian plan if higher numbers of neighboring municipalities had pedestrian plans. After adjustment for sociodemographic covariates and funding source, this relationship was attenuated but remained statistically significant. For bicycle plans, no significant associations were observed between plan presence and the number of neighboring municipalities with bicycle plans in adjusted models. Findings from this study can be used to generate hypotheses to test theories about diffusion of innovation and social contagion processes in pedestrian/bicycle planning.

Strong contribution of immigration to local population regulation: evidence from a migratory passerine.

PubMed

Schaub, Michael; Jakober, Hans; Stauber, Wolfgang

2013-08-01

A mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations requires knowledge about the variation of the underlying demographic rates and about the reasons for their variability. In geographically open populations, immigration is often necessary to prevent declines, but little is known about whether immigration can contribute to its regulation. We studied the dynamics of a Red-backed Shrike population (Lanius collurio) over 36 years in Germany with a Bayesian integrated population model. We estimated mean and temporal variability of population sizes, productivity, apparent survival, and immigration. We assessed how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population growth to understand the demographic reasons of population change and how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population size to identify possible density-dependent mechanisms. The shrike population varied between 35 and 74 breeding pairs but did not show a significant trend in population size over time (growth rate 1.002 +/- 0.001 [mean +/- SD]). Apparent survival of females (juveniles 0.06 +/- 0.01; adults 0.37 +/- 0.03) was lower than that of males (juveniles 0.10 +/- 0.01; adults 0.44 +/- 0.02). Immigration rates were substantial and higher in females (0.56 +/- 0.02) than in males (0.43 +/- 0.02), and average productivity was 2.76 +/- 0.14. Without immigration, the Red-backed Shrike population would have declined strongly. Immigration was the strongest driver for the number of females while local recruitment was the most important driver for the number of males. Immigration of both sexes and productivity, but not local recruitment and survival, were subject to density dependence. Density-dependent productivity was not effectively regulating the local population but may have contributed to regulate shrike populations at larger spatial scales. These findings suggest that immigration is not only an important component to prevent a geographically open population from decline, but that it can also contribute to its regulation.

Temporal Dynamics of Arthropods on Six Tree Species in Dry Woodlands on the Caribbean Island of Puerto Rico

PubMed Central

Beltrán, William; Wunderle, Joseph M.

2014-01-01

Abstract The seasonal dynamics of foliage arthropod populations are poorly studied in tropical dry forests despite the importance of these studies for understanding arthropod population responses to environmental change. We monitored the abundance, temporal distributions, and body size of arthropods in five naturalized alien and one native tree species to characterize arthropod seasonality in dry novel Prosopis–Leucaena woodlands in Puerto Rico. A branch clipping method was used monthly to sample foliage arthropod abundance over 39 mo. Seasonal patterns of rainfall and abundance within various arthropod taxa were highly variable from year to year. Abundance for most taxa did not show significant seasonality over the 3 yr, although most taxa had abundance peaks each year. However, Homoptera displayed high seasonality with significant temporal aggregations in each year. Formicidae, Orthoptera, and Coleoptera showed high variation in abundance between wet and dry periods, whereas Hemiptera were consistently more abundant in the wet period. Seasonal differences in mean abundance were found only in a few taxa on Tamarindus indica L. , Bucida buceras L. , Pithecellobium dulce , and (Roxburgh) Benth. Mean arthropod abundance varied among tree species, with highest numbers on Prosopis juliflora , (Swartz) De Candolle, Pi. dulce , Leucaena leucocephala , and (Lamarck) de Wit. Abundance of Araneae, Orthoptera, Coleoptera, Lepidoptera larvae, and all arthropods showed weak relationships with one or more climatic variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, or relative humidity). Body size of arthropods was usually largest during the dry periods. Overall, total foliage arthropod abundance showed no consistent seasonality among years, which may become a more common trend in dry forests and woodlands in the Caribbean if seasonality of rainfall becomes less predictable. PMID:25502036

Temporal dynamics of arthropods on six tree species in dry woodlands on the Caribbean Island of Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Beltrán, William; Wunderle, Joseph M

2014-01-01

The seasonal dynamics of foliage arthropod populations are poorly studied in tropical dry forests despite the importance of these studies for understanding arthropod population responses to environmental change. We monitored the abundance, temporal distributions, and body size of arthropods in five naturalized alien and one native tree species to characterize arthropod seasonality in dry novel Prosopis-Leucaena woodlands in Puerto Rico. A branch clipping method was used monthly to sample foliage arthropod abundance over 39 mo. Seasonal patterns of rainfall and abundance within various arthropod taxa were highly variable from year to year. Abundance for most taxa did not show significant seasonality over the 3 yr, although most taxa had abundance peaks each year. However, Homoptera displayed high seasonality with significant temporal aggregations in each year. Formicidae, Orthoptera, and Coleoptera showed high variation in abundance between wet and dry periods, whereas Hemiptera were consistently more abundant in the wet period. Seasonal differences in mean abundance were found only in a few taxa on Tamarindus indica L., Bucida buceras L., Pithecellobium dulce, and (Roxburgh) Benth. Mean arthropod abundance varied among tree species, with highest numbers on Prosopis juliflora, (Swartz) De Candolle, Pi. dulce, Leucaena leucocephala, and (Lamarck) de Wit. Abundance of Araneae, Orthoptera, Coleoptera, Lepidoptera larvae, and all arthropods showed weak relationships with one or more climatic variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, or relative humidity). Body size of arthropods was usually largest during the dry periods. Overall, total foliage arthropod abundance showed no consistent seasonality among years, which may become a more common trend in dry forests and woodlands in the Caribbean if seasonality of rainfall becomes less predictable. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America.

Density-dependent regulation of population size in colonial breeders: Allee and buffer effects in the migratory Montagu's harrier.

PubMed

Soutullo, Alvaro; Limiñana, Rubén; Urios, Vicente; Surroca, Martín; A Gill, Jennifer

2006-09-01

Expanding populations offer an opportunity to uncover the processes driving spatial variation in distribution and abundance. Individual settlement decisions will be influenced by the availability and relative quality of patches, and by how these respond to changes in conspecific density. For example, conspecific presence can alter patch suitability through reductions in resource availability or territorial exclusion, leading to buffer effect patterns of disproportionate population expansion into poorer quality areas. However, conspecific presence can also enhance patch suitability through Allee effect processes, such as transmission of information about resources or improved predator detection and deterrence. Here, we explore the factors underlying the settlement pattern of a growing population of Montagu's harriers (Circus pygargus) in Spain. The population increased exponentially between 1981 and 2001, but stabilised between 2001 and 2004. This population increase occurred alongside a remarkable spatial expansion, with novel site use occurring prior to maximum densities in occupied sites being reached. However, no temporal trends in fecundity were observed and, within sites, average fecundity did not decline with increasing density. Across the population, variance in productivity did increase with population size, suggesting a complex pattern of density-dependent costs and benefits. We suggest that both Allee and buffer effects are operating in this system, with the benefits of conspecific presence counteracting density-dependent declines in resource availability or quality.

Temporal estimates of genetic diversity in some Mytilus galloprovincialis populations impacted by the Prestige oil-spill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lado-Insua, Tanya; Pérez, Montse; Diz, Angel P.; Presa, Pablo

2011-04-01

The sinking of the tanker Prestige in November 2002 off the coast of Galicia resulted in the release of about 60,000 tons of heavy oil. The oil-spill provoked a serious environmental impact in Spanish and French coasts, which biological consequences are still being assessed. In this study we address the temporal dynamics of genetic diversity in some mussel populations impacted by the oil-spill. Changes in genetic diversity can be measured in natural populations provided that serial samples are available from before (year 2000) and after (years 2003, 2005) the oil-spill. Analyses of seven microsatellites indicate a weak but significant increase of genetic variation after the spill. This phenomenon is interpreted herein in terms of a balance between a enhanced genome mutability on microsatellite variation and a low genetic drift due to toxicants and asphyxia although other stochastic phenomena cannot be ruled out. Per locus annotation showed that in spite of the allelic changes observed in the period 2000-2005, the final size of most allelic series remained quite alike to those of year 2000. Present genetic data suggest that the genotoxic impact of the Prestige spill did not compromise the genetic diversity of studied mussel populations, at least regarding the genetic markers analysed.

In situ dynamics of cyst and vegetative cell populations of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella in Ago Bay, central Japan

PubMed Central

Ishikawa, Akira; Hattori, Mayuko; Ishii, Ken-Ichiro; Kulis, David M.; Anderson, Donald M.; Imai, Ichiro

2014-01-01

Temporal changes in the in situ germination flux of cysts and the abundance of vegetative cells of the toxic dinoflagellate Alexandrium catenella were investigated in Ago Bay, central Japan from July 2003 to December 2004. The in situ germination flux (cells m−2 day−1) was measured using ‘plankton emergence trap/chambers (PET chambers)’. Germination of the cysts in the sediments occurred continuously during the study, ranging from 52 to 1753 cells m−2 day−1, with no temporal trend. This germination pattern appeared to be promoted by a short mandatory dormancy period for newly formed cysts coupled with a broad temperature window for germination. For the vegetative populations, high abundances (>105 cells m−2) were recorded in the water column from spring to summer and from autumn to early winter. The size of the vegetative populations did not correlate with the cyst germination flux but rather larger vegetative populations were often observed when the water temperature was around 20°C, indicating that bloom development was mainly regulated by the temperature. Nonetheless, the continuous germination pattern of A. catenella is advantageous enabling the germinated cells to immediately exploit favorable bloom conditions. PMID:25221373

Towards a Population Dynamics Theory for Evolutionary Computing: Learning from Biological Population Dynamics in Nature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Zhanshan (Sam)

In evolutionary computing (EC), population size is one of the critical parameters that a researcher has to deal with. Hence, it was no surprise that the pioneers of EC, such as De Jong (1975) and Holland (1975), had already studied the population sizing from the very beginning of EC. What is perhaps surprising is that more than three decades later, we still largely depend on the experience or ad-hoc trial-and-error approach to set the population size. For example, in a recent monograph, Eiben and Smith (2003) indicated: "In almost all EC applications, the population size is constant and does not change during the evolutionary search." Despite enormous research on this issue in recent years, we still lack a well accepted theory for population sizing. In this paper, I propose to develop a population dynamics theory forEC with the inspiration from the population dynamics theory of biological populations in nature. Essentially, the EC population is considered as a dynamic system over time (generations) and space (search space or fitness landscape), similar to the spatial and temporal dynamics of biological populations in nature. With this conceptual mapping, I propose to 'transplant' the biological population dynamics theory to EC via three steps: (i) experimentally test the feasibility—whether or not emulating natural population dynamics improves the EC performance; (ii) comparatively study the underlying mechanisms—why there are improvements, primarily via statistical modeling analysis; (iii) conduct theoretical analysis with theoretical models such as percolation theory and extended evolutionary game theory that are generally applicable to both EC and natural populations. This article is a summary of a series of studies we have performed to achieve the general goal [27][30]-[32]. In the following, I start with an extremely brief introduction on the theory and models of natural population dynamics (Sections 1 & 2). In Sections 4 to 6, I briefly discuss three categories of population dynamics models: deterministic modeling with Logistic chaos map as an example, stochastic modeling with spatial distribution patterns as an example, as well as survival analysis and extended evolutionary game theory (EEGT) modeling. Sample experiment results with Genetic algorithms (GA) are presented to demonstrate the applications of these models. The proposed EC population dynamics approach also makes survival selection largely unnecessary or much simplified since the individuals are naturally selected (controlled) by the mathematical models for EC population dynamics.

Effective population sizes of a major vector of human diseases, Aedes aegypti.

PubMed

Saarman, Norah P; Gloria-Soria, Andrea; Anderson, Eric C; Evans, Benjamin R; Pless, Evlyn; Cosme, Luciano V; Gonzalez-Acosta, Cassandra; Kamgang, Basile; Wesson, Dawn M; Powell, Jeffrey R

2017-12-01

The effective population size ( N e ) is a fundamental parameter in population genetics that determines the relative strength of selection and random genetic drift, the effect of migration, levels of inbreeding, and linkage disequilibrium. In many cases where it has been estimated in animals, N e is on the order of 10%-20% of the census size. In this study, we use 12 microsatellite markers and 14,888 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to empirically estimate N e in Aedes aegypti , the major vector of yellow fever, dengue, chikungunya, and Zika viruses. We used the method of temporal sampling to estimate N e on a global dataset made up of 46 samples of Ae. aegypti that included multiple time points from 17 widely distributed geographic localities. Our N e estimates for Ae. aegypti fell within a broad range (~25-3,000) and averaged between 400 and 600 across all localities and time points sampled. Adult census size (N c ) estimates for this species range between one and five thousand, so the N e / N c ratio is about the same as for most animals. These N e values are lower than estimates available for other insects and have important implications for the design of genetic control strategies to reduce the impact of this species of mosquito on human health.

Survival of northern pintails banded during winter in North America, 1950-88

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hestbeck, J.B.

1993-01-01

From 1950 through 1988, the continental breeding population of northern pintails (Anas acuta) varied from 2.0 million to 9.9 million. Because pintails have high fidelity to certain wintering grounds along coasts and large bodies of water, management on these wintering areas may increase population size if changes in winter survival rate are related to changes in population size. I used band-recovery data to estimate survival rates for winter-banded pintails and to test for sex-specific, temporal, and geographic variation in survival rates. Survival rate estimates varied between 0.632 and 0.806 for males, and 0.421 and 0.769 for females. Males had higher (P lt 0.0001) average annual survival rates than females. Limited geographic variation occurred in estimates of average annual survival rates for males, and no variation occurred for females. Males had lower average annual survival rates in the Imperial Valley than in central California (P = 0.007) or in the Gulf Coast (P = 0.092). Little annual variation was found within time periods. However, longer-term variation was found in survival rate estimates for males and females. Males had higher (P = 0.054) average annual survival rates in the Pacific Flyway during 1959-61, a period of drought, breeding-population decline, and restrictive hunting regulations, than during 1950-58, a period with a higher breeding population and liberal regulations. The increase in wintering population size in the Pacific Flyway during the 1970's was associated with a higher average annual survival rate for females in the Pacific Flyway than during the 1950's. Results from the Pacific Flyway suggested that an interaction may exist between population size and the effect of harvest regulations on survival of males. Changes in harvest regulations appeared to have a greater effect at lower population levels.

Complex small pelagic fish population patterns arising from individual behavioral responses to their environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brochier, Timothée; Auger, Pierre-Amaël; Pecquerie, Laure; Machu, Eric; Capet, Xavier; Thiaw, Modou; Mbaye, Baye Cheikh; Braham, Cheikh-Baye; Ettahiri, Omar; Charouki, Najib; Sène, Ousseynou Ndaw; Werner, Francisco; Brehmer, Patrice

2018-05-01

Small pelagic fish (SPF) species are heavily exploited in eastern boundary upwelling systems (EBUS) as their transformation products are increasingly used in the world's food chain. Management relies on regular monitoring, but there is a lack of robust theories for the emergence of the populations' traits and their evolution in highly variable environments. This work aims to address existing knowledge gaps by combining physical and biogeochemical modelling with an individual life-cycle based model applied to round sardinella (Sardinella aurita) off northwest Africa, a key species for regional food security. Our approach focused on the processes responsible for seasonal migrations, spatio-temporal size-structure, and interannual biomass fluctuations. Emergence of preferred habitat resulted from interactions between natal homing behavior and environmental variability that impacts early life stages. Exploration of the environment by the fishes was determined by swimming capabilities, mesoscale to regional habitat structure, and horizontal currents. Fish spatio-temporal abundance variability emerged from a complex combination of distinct life-history traits. An alongshore gradient in fish size distributions is reported and validated by in situ measurements. New insights into population structure are provided, within an area where the species is abundant year-round (Mauritania) and with latitudinal migrations of variable (300-1200 km) amplitude. Interannual biomass fluctuations were linked to modulations of fish recruitment over the Sahara Bank driven by variability in alongshore current intensity. The identified processes constitute an analytical framework that can be implemented in other EBUS and used to explore impacts of regional climate change on SPF.

Density-Dependent Regulation of Brook Trout Population Dynamics along a Core-Periphery Distribution Gradient in a Central Appalachian Watershed

PubMed Central

Huntsman, Brock M.; Petty, J. Todd

2014-01-01

Spatial population models predict strong density-dependence and relatively stable population dynamics near the core of a species' distribution with increasing variance and importance of density-independent processes operating towards the population periphery. Using a 10-year data set and an information-theoretic approach, we tested a series of candidate models considering density-dependent and density-independent controls on brook trout population dynamics across a core-periphery distribution gradient within a central Appalachian watershed. We sampled seven sub-populations with study sites ranging in drainage area from 1.3–60 km2 and long-term average densities ranging from 0.335–0.006 trout/m. Modeled response variables included per capita population growth rate of young-of-the-year, adult, and total brook trout. We also quantified a stock-recruitment relationship for the headwater population and coefficients of variability in mean trout density for all sub-populations over time. Density-dependent regulation was prevalent throughout the study area regardless of stream size. However, density-independent temperature models carried substantial weight and likely reflect the effect of year-to-year variability in water temperature on trout dispersal between cold tributaries and warm main stems. Estimated adult carrying capacities decreased exponentially with increasing stream size from 0.24 trout/m in headwaters to 0.005 trout/m in the main stem. Finally, temporal variance in brook trout population size was lowest in the high-density headwater population, tended to peak in mid-sized streams and declined slightly in the largest streams with the lowest densities. Our results provide support for the hypothesis that local density-dependent processes have a strong control on brook trout dynamics across the entire distribution gradient. However, the mechanisms of regulation likely shift from competition for limited food and space in headwater streams to competition for thermal refugia in larger main stems. It also is likely that source-sink dynamics and dispersal from small headwater habitats may partially influence brook trout population dynamics in the main stem. PMID:24618602

Can males contribute to the genetic improvement of a species?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardes, Américo T.

1997-01-01

In the time evolution of finite populations, the accumulation of harmful mutations in further generations might have lead to a temporal decay in the mean fitness of the whole population. This, in turn, would reduce the population size and so lead to its extinction. The production of genetically diverse offspring, through recombination, is a powerful mechanism in order to avoid this catastrophic route. From a selfish point of view, meiotic parthenogenesis can ensure the maintenance of better genomes, while sexual reproduction presents the risk of genome dilution. In this paper, by using Monte Carlo simulations of age-structured populations, through the Penna model, I compare the evolution of populations with different repoductive regimes. It is shown that sexual reproduction with male competition can produce better results than meiotic parthenogenesis. This contradicts results recently published, but agrees with the strong evidence that nature chose sexual reproduction instead of partenogenesis for most of the higher species.

An Inexpensive High-Temporal Resolution Electronic Sun Journal for Monitoring Personal Day to Day Sun Exposure Patterns

PubMed Central

Downs, Nathan J.; Parisi, Alfio V.; Butler, Harry; Rawlings, Alex; Elrahoumi, Raja Salem

2017-01-01

Exposure to natural sunlight, specifically solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation contributes to lifetime risks of skin cancer, eye disease, and diseases associated with vitamin D insufficiency. Improved knowledge of personal sun exposure patterns can inform public health policy; and help target high-risk population groups. Subsequently, an extensive number of studies have been conducted to measure personal solar UV exposure in a variety of settings. Many of these studies, however, use digital or paper-based journals (self-reported volunteer recall), or employ cost prohibitive electronic UV dosimeters (that limit the size of sample populations), to estimate periods of exposure. A cost effective personal electronic sun journal (ESJ) built from readily available infrared photodiodes is presented in this research. The ESJ can be used to complement traditional UV dosimeters that measure total biologically effective exposure by providing a time-stamped sun exposure record. The ESJ can be easily attached to clothing and data logged to personal devices (including fitness monitors or smartphones). The ESJ improves upon self-reported exposure recording and is a cost effective high-temporal resolution option for monitoring personal sun exposure behavior in large population studies. PMID:29201865

Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Karanth, K.U.; Nichols, J.D.; Kumar, N.S.; Hines, J.E.

2006-01-01

Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, ?robust design? capture?recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of =K' =Y' 0.10 ? 0.069 (values are estimated mean ? SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 ? 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was = 0.18 ? 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size Nt varied from 17 ? 1.7 to 31 ? 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as = 1.03 ? 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, Bt, varied from 0 ? 3.0 to 14 ? 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 ? 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 ? 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.

Assessing tiger population dynamics using photographic capture-recapture sampling.

PubMed

Karanth, K Ullas; Nichols, James D; Kumar, N Samba; Hines, James E

2006-11-01

Although wide-ranging, elusive, large carnivore species, such as the tiger, are of scientific and conservation interest, rigorous inferences about their population dynamics are scarce because of methodological problems of sampling populations at the required spatial and temporal scales. We report the application of a rigorous, noninvasive method for assessing tiger population dynamics to test model-based predictions about population viability. We obtained photographic capture histories for 74 individual tigers during a nine-year study involving 5725 trap-nights of effort. These data were modeled under a likelihood-based, "robust design" capture-recapture analytic framework. We explicitly modeled and estimated ecological parameters such as time-specific abundance, density, survival, recruitment, temporary emigration, and transience, using models that incorporated effects of factors such as individual heterogeneity, trap-response, and time on probabilities of photo-capturing tigers. The model estimated a random temporary emigration parameter of gamma" = gamma' = 0.10 +/- 0.069 (values are estimated mean +/- SE). When scaled to an annual basis, tiger survival rates were estimated at S = 0.77 +/- 0.051, and the estimated probability that a newly caught animal was a transient was tau = 0.18 +/- 0.11. During the period when the sampled area was of constant size, the estimated population size N(t) varied from 17 +/- 1.7 to 31 +/- 2.1 tigers, with a geometric mean rate of annual population change estimated as lambda = 1.03 +/- 0.020, representing a 3% annual increase. The estimated recruitment of new animals, B(t), varied from 0 +/- 3.0 to 14 +/- 2.9 tigers. Population density estimates, D, ranged from 7.33 +/- 0.8 tigers/100 km2 to 21.73 +/- 1.7 tigers/100 km2 during the study. Thus, despite substantial annual losses and temporal variation in recruitment, the tiger density remained at relatively high levels in Nagarahole. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that protected wild tiger populations can remain healthy despite heavy mortalities because of their inherently high reproductive potential. The ability to model the entire photographic capture history data set and incorporate reduced-parameter models led to estimates of mean annual population change that were sufficiently precise to be useful. This efficient, noninvasive sampling approach can be used to rigorously investigate the population dynamics of tigers and other elusive, rare, wide-ranging animal species in which individuals can be identified from photographs or other means.

Selective spatial enhancement: Attentional spotlight size impacts spatial but not temporal perception.

PubMed

Goodhew, Stephanie C; Shen, Elizabeth; Edwards, Mark

2016-08-01

An important but often neglected aspect of attention is how changes in the attentional spotlight size impact perception. The zoom-lens model predicts that a small ("focal") attentional spotlight enhances all aspects of perception relative to a larger ("diffuse" spotlight). However, based on the physiological properties of the two major classes of visual cells (magnocellular and parvocellular neurons) we predicted trade-offs in spatial and temporal acuity as a function of spotlight size. Contrary to both of these accounts, however, across two experiments we found that attentional spotlight size affected spatial acuity, such that spatial acuity was enhanced for a focal relative to a diffuse spotlight, whereas the same modulations in spotlight size had no impact on temporal acuity. This likely reflects the function of attention: to induce the high spatial resolution of the fovea in periphery, where spatial resolution is poor but temporal resolution is good. It is adaptive, therefore, for the attentional spotlight to enhance spatial acuity, whereas enhancing temporal acuity does not confer the same benefit.

The population dynamics of the parasitic copepode Lernaeocera lusci (Bassett-Smith, 1896) on its definitive host

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Damme, P. A.; Hamerlynck, O.; Ollevier, F.

1996-06-01

The mesoparasitic copepod Lernaeocera lusci (Bassett-Smith, 1896) was recovered from first-year bib ( Trisopterus luscus L.) in the Voordelta (Southern Bight of the North Sea) from May until December 1989. Analysis of the seasonal abundance and of the population structure showed that transmission of infective stages to bib mainly occurred from June to September. From September to December the overall prevalence fluctuated around 70%. Maximum parasite population size (47/104m2) and the highest total egg number were recorded in September and October, respectively. It was found that total parasite mortality was significantly influenced by mortality of hosts carrying parasites. Natural mortality probably contributed a small percentage to total parasite mortality. Calculation of the temporal mean-variance regression equation revealed that the parasites were aggregated within the definitive host population.

Influence of habitat amount, arrangement, and use on population trend estimates of male Kirtland's warblers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donner, D.M.; Probst, J.R.; Ribic, C.A.

2008-01-01

Kirtland's warblers (Dendroica kirtlandii) persist in a naturally patchy environment of young, regenerating jack pine forests (i.e., 5-23 years old) created after wildfires and human logging activities. We examined how changing landscape structure from 26 years of forest management and wildfire disturbances influenced population size and spatial dispersion of male Kirtland's warblers within their restricted breeding range in northern Lower Michigan, USA. The male Kirtland's warbler population was six times larger in 2004 (1,322) compared to 1979 (205); the change was nonlinear with 1987 and 1994 identified as significant points of change. In 1987, the population trend began increasing after a slowly declining trend prior to 1987, and the rate of increase appeared to slow after 1994. Total amount of suitable habitat and the relative area of wildfire-regenerated habitat were the most important factors explaining population trend. Suitable habitat increased 149% primarily due to increasing plantations from forest management. The relative amount and location of wildfire-regenerated habitat modified the distribution of males among various habitat types, and the spatial variation in their abundance across the primary breeding range. These findings indicate that the Kirtland's warbler male population shifted its use of habitat types temporally and spatially as the population increased and as the relative availability of habitats changed through time. We demonstrate that researchers and managers need to consider not only habitat quality, but the temporal and the spatial context of habitat availability and population levels when making habitat restoration decisions. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

The Effect of Latitudinal Variation on Shrimp Reproductive Strategies.

PubMed

van de Kerk, Madelon; Jones Littles, Chanda; Saucedo, Omar; Lorenzen, Kai

2016-01-01

Reproductive strategies comprise the timing and frequency of reproductive events and the number of offspring per reproductive event, depending on factors such as climate conditions. Therefore, species that exhibit plasticity in the allocation of reproductive effort can alter their behavior in response to climate change. Studying how the reproductive strategy of species varies along the latitudinal gradient can help us understand and predict how they will respond to climate change. We investigated the effects of the temporal allocation of reproductive effort on the population size of brown shrimp (Farfantepenaeus aztecus) along a latitudinal gradient. Multiple shrimp species exhibit variation in their reproductive strategies, and given the economic importance of brown shrimp to the commercial fishing sector of the Unites States, changes in the timing of their reproduction could have significant economic and social consequences. We used a stage-based, density-dependent matrix population model tailored to the life history of brown shrimp. Shrimp growth rates and environmental carrying capacity were varied based on the seasonal climate conditions at different latitudes, and we estimated the population size at equilibrium. The length of the growing season increased with decreasing latitude and the reproductive strategy leading to the highest population size changed from one annual birth pulse with high reproductive output to continuous low-output reproduction. Hence, our model confirms the classical paradigm of continuous reproduction at low latitudes, with increased seasonality of the breeding period towards the poles. Our results also demonstrate the potential for variation in climate to affect the optimal reproductive strategy for achieving maximum population sizes. Certainly, understanding these dynamics may inform more comprehensive management strategies for commercially important species like brown shrimp.

Temporal changes in UK birth order and the prevalence of atopy.

PubMed

Upchurch, S; Harris, J M; Cullinan, P

2010-08-01

Many studies have reported an inverse association between birth order and the risk of respiratory allergic disease. In recent decades, the prevalence of atopy has increased alongside reductions in fertility rates. To quantitate how much of the increased prevalence of atopy, measured by skin prick test or specific IgE, can be attributed to temporal changes in family size in the United Kingdom. Through a systematic literature review (MEDLINE, 1965-2009), five studies of UK populations were identified and their data were included in the calculation of a summary odds ratio for the risk of atopy for each birth order. Information on changes in UK family sizes between 1960 and 2001 was obtained from Eurostat. On this basis, expected increases in the prevalence of atopy were calculated by weighting the proportion in each birth order category for 1960 and 2001 by the summary odds ratio for that category and then calculating the relative risk of atopy in 2001 compared with 1960. The pooled summary odds ratios for atopy were 0.90, 0.69 and 0.69 for those born second, third and fourth (or higher), respectively. The expected relative increase in the prevalence of atopy resulting from a change in family size between 1960 and 2001 was 3%. Despite the strong associations between birth order and atopy, reductions in family size in the last 40 years account for little of the increase in atopy.

Density-associated recruitment mediates coral population dynamics on a coral reef

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bramanti, Lorenzo; Edmunds, Peter J.

2016-06-01

Theory suggests that density-associated processes can modulate community resilience following declines in population size. Here, we demonstrate density-associated processes in two scleractinian populations on the outer reef of Moorea, French Polynesia, that are rapidly increasing in size following the effects of two catastrophic disturbances. Between 2006 and 2010, predation by the corallivorous crown-of-thorns sea star reduced coral cover by 93 %; in 2010, the dead coral skeletons were removed by a cyclone, and in 2011 and 2012, high coral recruitment initiated population recovery. Coral recruitment was associated with coral cover, but the relationship differed between two coral genera that are almost exclusively broadcast spawners in Moorea. Acroporids recruited at low densities, and the density of recruits was positively associated with cover of Acropora, whereas pocilloporids recruited at high densities, and densities of their recruits were negatively associated with cover of Pocillopora. Together, our results suggest that associations between adult cover and density of both juveniles and recruits can mediate rapid coral community recovery after large disturbances. The difference between taxa in sign of the relationships between recruit density and coral cover indicate that they reflect contrasting mechanisms with the potential to mediate temporal shifts in taxonomic composition of coral communities.

Demographic analysis of dormancy and survival in the terrestrial orchid Cypripedium reginae

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kery, Marc; Gregg, Katharine B.

2004-01-01

1. We use capture-recapture models to estimate the fraction of dormant ramets, survival and state transition rates, and to identify factors affecting these rates, for the terrestrial orchid Cypripedium reginae. We studied two populations in West Virginia, USA, for 11 years and investigated relationships between grazing and demography. Abe Run's population was small, with moderate herbivory by deer and relatively constant population size. The population at Big Draft was of medium size, with heavy deer grazing, and a sharply declining number of flowering plants up to the spring before our study started, when the population was fenced. 2. We observed dormant episodes lasting from 1 to 4 years. At Abe Run and Big Draft, 32.5% and 7.4% of ramets, respectively, were dormant at least once during the study period for an average of 1.6 and 1.3 years, respectively. We estimated the annual fraction of ramets in the dormant state at 12.3% (95% CI 9.5-15.8%) at Abe Run and at 1.8% (95% CI 1.2-2.6%) at Big Draft. Transition rates between the dormant, vegetative and flowering life-states did not vary between years in either population. Most surviving ramets remained in the same state from one year to the next. Survival rates were constant at Abe Run (0.96, 95% CI 0.93-0.97), but varied between years at Big Draft (0.89-0.99, mean 0.95). 3. At Big Draft, we found neither a temporal trend in survival after cessation of grazing, nor relationships between survival and the number of spring frost days or cumulative precipitation during the current or the previous 12 months. However, analysis of precipitation on a 3-month basis revealed a positive relationship between survival and precipitation during the spring (March-May) of the previous year. 4. Relationship between climate and the population dynamics of orchids may have to be studied with a fine temporal resolution, and considering possible time lags. Capture-recapture modelling provides a comprehensive and flexible framework for demographic analysis of plants with dormancy.

GONe: Software for estimating effective population size in species with generational overlap

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coombs, J.A.; Letcher, B.H.; Nislow, K.H.

2012-01-01

GONe is a user-friendly, Windows-based program for estimating effective size (N e) in populations with overlapping generations. It uses the Jorde-Ryman modification to the temporal method to account for age structure in populations. This method requires estimates of age-specific survival and birth rate and allele frequencies measured in two or more consecutive cohorts. Allele frequencies are acquired by reading in genotypic data from files formatted for either GENEPOP or TEMPOFS. For each interval between consecutive cohorts, N e is estimated at each locus and over all loci. Furthermore, N e estimates are output for three different genetic drift estimators (F s, F c and F k). Confidence intervals are derived from a chi-square distribution with degrees of freedom equal to the number of independent alleles. GONe has been validated over a wide range of N e values, and for scenarios where survival and birth rates differ between sexes, sex ratios are unequal and reproductive variances differ. GONe is freely available for download at. ?? 2011 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation.

PubMed

Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T J

2016-01-01

Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term.

Long Term Population, City Size and Climate Trends in the Fertile Crescent: A First Approximation

PubMed Central

Lawrence, Dan; Philip, Graham; Hunt, Hannah; Snape-Kennedy, Lisa; Wilkinson, T. J.

2016-01-01

Over the last 8000 years the Fertile Crescent of the Near East has seen the emergence of urban agglomerations, small scale polities and large territorial empires, all of which had profound effects on settlement patterns. Computational approaches, including the use of remote sensing data, allow us to analyse these changes at unprecedented geographical and temporal scales. Here we employ these techniques to examine and compare long term trends in urbanisation, population and climate records. Maximum city size is used as a proxy for the intensity of urbanisation, whilst population trends are modelled from settlement densities in nine archaeological surveys conducted over the last 30 years across the region. These two measures are then compared with atmospheric moisture levels derived from multiple proxy analyses from two locations close to the study area, Soreq Cave in Israel and Lake Van in south-eastern Turkey, as well as wider literature. The earliest urban sites emerged during a period of relatively high atmospheric moisture levels and conform to a series of size thresholds. However, after the Early Bronze Age maximum urban size and population levels increase rapidly whilst atmospheric moisture declines. We argue that although the initial phase of urbanization may have been linked to climate conditions, we can see a definitive decoupling of climate and settlement patterns after 2000 BC. We relate this phenomenon to changes in socio-economic organisation and integration in large territorial empires. The complex relationships sustaining urban growth during this later period resulted in an increase in system fragility and ultimately impacted on the sustainability of cities in the long term. PMID:27018998

Landscape attributes and life history variability shape genetic structure of trout populations in a stream network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neville, H.M.; Dunham, J.B.; Peacock, M.M.

2006-01-01

Spatial and temporal landscape patterns have long been recognized to influence biological processes, but these processes often operate at scales that are difficult to study by conventional means. Inferences from genetic markers can overcome some of these limitations. We used a landscape genetics approach to test hypotheses concerning landscape processes influencing the demography of Lahontan cutthroat trout in a complex stream network in the Great Basin desert of the western US. Predictions were tested with population- and individual-based analyses of microsatellite DNA variation, reflecting patterns of dispersal, population stability, and local effective population sizes. Complementary genetic inferences suggested samples from migratory corridors housed a mixture of fish from tributaries, as predicted based on assumed migratory life histories in those habitats. Also as predicted, populations presumed to have greater proportions of migratory fish or from physically connected, large, or high quality habitats had higher genetic variability and reduced genetic differentiation from other populations. Populations thought to contain largely non-migratory individuals generally showed the opposite pattern, suggesting behavioral isolation. Estimated effective sizes were small, and we identified significant and severe genetic bottlenecks in several populations that were isolated, recently founded, or that inhabit streams that desiccate frequently. Overall, this work suggested that Lahontan cutthroat trout populations in stream networks are affected by a combination of landscape and metapopulation processes. Results also demonstrated that genetic patterns can reveal unexpected processes, even within a system that is well studied from a conventional ecological perspective. ?? Springer 2006.

Demographic history of an elusive carnivore: using museums to inform management

PubMed Central

Holbrook, Joseph D; DeYoung, Randy W; Tewes, Michael E; Young, John H

2012-01-01

Elusive carnivores present a challenge to managers because traditional survey methods are not suitable. We applied a genetic approach using museum specimens to examine how historical and recent conditions influenced the demographic history of Puma concolor in western and southern Texas, USA. We used 10 microsatellite loci and indexed population trends by estimating historical and recent genetic diversity, genetic differentiation and effective population size. Mountain lions in southern Texas exhibited a 9% decline in genetic diversity, whereas diversity remained stable in western Texas. Genetic differentiation between western and southern Texas was minimal historically (FST = 0.04, P < 0.01), but increased 2–2.5 times in our recent sample. An index of genetic drift for southern Texas was seven to eight times that of western Texas, presumably contributing to the current differentiation between western and southern Texas. Furthermore, southern Texas exhibited a >50% temporal decline in effective population size, whereas western Texas showed no change. Our results illustrate that population declines and genetic drift have occurred in southern Texas, likely because of contemporary habitat loss and predator control. Population monitoring may be needed to ensure the persistence of mountain lions in the southern Texas region. This study highlights the utility of sampling museum collections to examine demographic histories and inform wildlife management. PMID:23028402

Birds in space and time: genetic changes accompanying anthropogenic habitat fragmentation in the endangered black-capped vireo (Vireo atricapilla)

PubMed Central

Athrey, Giridhar; Barr, Kelly R; Lance, Richard F; Leberg, Paul L

2012-01-01

Anthropogenic alterations in the natural environment can be a potent evolutionary force. For species that have specific habitat requirements, habitat loss can result in substantial genetic effects, potentially impeding future adaptability and evolution. The endangered black-capped vireo (Vireo atricapilla) suffered a substantial contraction of breeding habitat and population size during much of the 20th century. In a previous study, we reported significant differentiation between remnant populations, but failed to recover a strong genetic signal of bottlenecks. In this study, we used a combination of historical and contemporary sampling from Oklahoma and Texas to (i) determine whether population structure and genetic diversity have changed over time and (ii) evaluate alternate demographic hypotheses using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). We found lower genetic diversity and increased differentiation in contemporary samples compared to historical samples, indicating nontrivial impacts of fragmentation. ABC analysis suggests a bottleneck having occurred in the early part of the 20th century, resulting in a magnitude decline in effective population size. Genetic monitoring with temporally spaced samples, such as used in this study, can be highly informative for assessing the genetic impacts of anthropogenic fragmentation on threatened or endangered species, as well as revealing the dynamics of small populations over time. PMID:23028396

Ancient DNA reveals genetic stability despite demographic decline: 3,000 years of population history in the endemic Hawaiian petrel.

PubMed

Welch, Andreanna J; Wiley, Anne E; James, Helen F; Ostrom, Peggy H; Stafford, Thomas W; Fleischer, Robert C

2012-12-01

In the Hawaiian Islands, human colonization, which began approximately 1,200 to 800 years ago, marks the beginning of a period in which nearly 75% of the endemic avifauna became extinct and the population size and range of many additional species declined. It remains unclear why some species persisted whereas others did not. The endemic Hawaiian petrel (Pterodroma sandwichensis) has escaped extinction, but colonies on two islands have been extirpated and populations on remaining islands have contracted. We obtained mitochondrial DNA sequences from 100 subfossil bones, 28 museum specimens, and 289 modern samples to investigate patterns of gene flow and temporal changes in the genetic diversity of this endangered species over the last 3,000 years, as Polynesians and then Europeans colonized the Hawaiian Islands. Genetic differentiation was found to be high between both modern and ancient petrel populations. However, gene flow was substantial between the extirpated colonies on Oahu and Molokai and modern birds from the island of Lanai. No significant reductions in genetic diversity occurred over this period, despite fears in the mid-1900s that this species may have been extinct. Simulations show that even a decline to a stable effective population size of 100 individuals would result in the loss of only 5% of the expected heterozygosity. Simulations also show that high levels of genetic diversity may be retained due to the long generation time of this species. Such decoupling between population size and genetic diversity in long-lived species can have important conservation implications. It appears that a pattern of dispersal from declining colonies, in addition to long generation time, may have allowed the Hawaiian petrel to escape a severe genetic bottleneck, and the associated extinction vortex, and persist despite a large population decline after human colonization.

Empirical links between natural mortality and recovery in marine fishes.

PubMed

Hutchings, Jeffrey A; Kuparinen, Anna

2017-06-14

Probability of species recovery is thought to be correlated with specific aspects of organismal life history, such as age at maturity and longevity, and how these affect rates of natural mortality ( M ) and maximum per capita population growth ( r max ). Despite strong theoretical underpinnings, these correlates have been based on predicted rather than realized population trajectories following threat mitigation. Here, we examine the level of empirical support for postulated links between a suite of life-history traits (related to maturity, age, size and growth) and recovery in marine fishes. Following threat mitigation (medium time since cessation of overfishing = 20 years), 71% of 55 temperate populations had fully recovered, the remainder exhibiting, on average, negligible change (impaired recovery). Singly, life-history traits did not influence recovery status. In combination, however, those that jointly reflect length-based mortality at maturity, M α , revealed that recovered populations have higher M α , which we hypothesize to reflect local adaptations associated with greater r max But, within populations, the smaller sizes at maturity generated by overfishing are predicted to increase M α , slowing recovery and increasing its uncertainty. We conclude that recovery potential is greater for populations adapted to high M but that temporal increases in M concomitant with smaller size at maturity will have the opposite effect. The recovery metric documented here ( M α ) has a sound theoretical basis, is significantly correlated with direct estimates of M that directly reflect r max , is not reliant on data-intensive time series, can be readily estimated, and offers an empirically defensible correlate of recovery, given its clear links to the positive and impaired responses to threat mitigation that have been observed in fish populations over the past three decades. © 2017 The Author(s).

Larval traits show temporally consistent constraints, but are decoupled from post-settlement juvenile growth, in an intertidal fish.

PubMed

Thia, Joshua A; Riginos, Cynthia; Liggins, Libby; Figueira, Will F; McGuigan, Katrina

2018-05-05

1.Complex life-cycles may evolve to dissociate distinct developmental phases in an organism's lifetime. However, genetic or environmental factors may restrict trait independence across life stages, constraining ontogenetic trajectories. Quantifying covariance across life-stages and their temporal variability is fundamental in understanding life-history phenotypes and potential distributions and consequences for selection. 2.We studied developmental constraints in an intertidal fish (Bathygobius cocosensis: Gobiidae) with a discrete pelagic larval phase and benthic juvenile phase. We tested whether traits occurring earlier in life affected those expressed later, and whether larval traits were decoupled from post-settlement juvenile traits. Sampling distinct cohorts from three annual breeding seasons afforded tests of temporally variability in trait covariance. 3.From otoliths (fish ear stones), we measured hatch size, larval duration, pelagic growth (larval traits) and early post-settlement growth (juvenile trait) in 124 juvenile B. cocoensis. We used path analyses to model trait relationships with respect to their chronological expression, comparing models among seasons. We also modelled the effect of season and hatch date on each individual trait to quantify their inherent variability. 4.Our path analyses demonstrated a decoupling of larval traits on juvenile growth. Within the larval phase, longer larval durations resulted in greater pelagic growth, and larger size-at-settlement. There was also evidence that larger hatch size might reduce larval durations, but this effect was only marginally significant. Although pelagic and post-settlement growth were decoupled, pelagic growth had post-settlement consequences: individuals with high pelagic growth were among the largest fish at settlement, and remained among the largest early post-settlement. We observed no evidence that trait relationships varied among breeding seasons, but larval duration differed among breeding seasons, and was shorter for larvae hatching later within each season. 5.Overall, we demonstrate mixed support for the expectation that traits in different life-stages are independent. While post-settlement growth was decoupled from larval traits, pelagic development had consequences for the size of newly settled juveniles. Temporal consistency in trait covariances implies that genetic and/or environmental factors influencing them were stable over our three-year study. Our work highlights the importance of individual developmental experiences and temporal variability in understanding population distributions of life-history traits. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal analysis of gene flow in Chesapeake Bay Diamondback Terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Converse, Paul E.; Kuchta, Shawn R; Roosenburg, Willem R; Henry, Paula F.; Haramis, G. Michael; King, Timothy L.

2015-01-01

There is widespread concern regarding the impacts of anthropogenic activities on connectivity among populations of plants and animals, and understanding how contemporary and historical processes shape metapopulation dynamics is crucial for setting appropriate conservation targets. We used genetic data to identify population clusters and quantify gene flow over historical and contemporary time frames in the Diamondback Terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin). This species has a long and complicated history with humans, including commercial over-harvesting and subsequent translocation events during the early twentieth century. Today, terrapins face threats from habitat loss and mortality in fisheries bycatch. To evaluate population structure and gene flow among Diamondback Terrapin populations in the Chesapeake Bay region, we sampled 617 individuals from 15 localities, and screened individuals at 12 polymorphic microsatellite loci. Our goals were to demarcate metapopulation structure, quantify genetic diversity, estimate effective population sizes, and document temporal changes in gene flow. We found that terrapins in the Chesapeake Bay region harbor high levels of genetic diversity and form four populations. Effective population sizes were variable. Among most population comparisons, estimates of historical and contemporary terrapin gene flow were generally low (m ≈ 0.01). However, we detected a substantial increase in contemporary gene flow into Chesapeake Bay from populations outside the bay, as well as between two populations within Chesapeake Bay, possibly as a consequence of translocations during the early twentieth century. Our study shows that inferences across multiple time scales are needed to evaluate population connectivity, especially as recent changes may identify threats to population persistence.

Genetics of Central Valley O. mykiss populations: drainage and watershed scale analyses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Pavey, Scott A.; Wiacek, Talia; Williams, Ian S.

2005-01-01

Genetic variation at 11 microsatellite loci described population genetic structure for Oncorhynchus mykiss in the Central Valley, California. Spatial and temporal variation was examined as well as relationships between hatchery and putative natural spawning anadromous stocks. Genetic diversity was analyzed at two distinct spatial scales: fine-scale within drainage for five populations on Clear Creek; between and among drainage diversity for 23 populations. Significant regional spatial structure was apparent, both within Clear Creek and among rainbow trout populations throughout the Central Valley. Significant differences in allelic frequencies were found among most river or drainage systems. Less than 1% of the molecular variance could be attributed to differences found between drainages. Hatchery populations were shown to carry similar genetic diversity to geographically proximate wild populations. Central Valley M = 0.626 (below the M < 0.68 threshold) supported recent population reductions within the Central Valley. However, average estimated effective population size was relatively high (Ne = 5066). Significant allelic differences were found in rainbow trout collected above and below impassable dams on the American, Yuba, Stanislaus and Tuolumne rivers. Rainbow trout sampled in Spring Creek were extremely bottlenecked with allelic variation at only two loci and an estimated effective population size of 62, suggesting some local freshwater O. mykiss stocks may be declining rapidly. These data support significant genetic population structure for steelhead and rainbow trout populations within the Central Valley across multiple scales. Careful consideration of this genetic diversity and its distribution across the landscape should be part of future conservation and restoration efforts. 

Bamboo-Dominated Forests of the Southwest Amazon: Detection, Spatial Extent, Life Cycle Length and Flowering Waves

PubMed Central

de Carvalho, Anelena L.; Nelson, Bruce W.; Bianchini, Milton C.; Plagnol, Daniela; Kuplich, Tatiana M.; Daly, Douglas C.

2013-01-01

We map the extent, infer the life-cycle length and describe spatial and temporal patterns of flowering of sarmentose bamboos (Guadua spp) in upland forests of the southwest Amazon. We first examine the spectra and the spectral separation of forests with different bamboo life stages. False-color composites from orbital sensors going back to 1975 are capable of distinguishing life stages. These woody bamboos flower produce massive quantities of seeds and then die. Life stage is synchronized, forming a single cohort within each population. Bamboo dominates at least 161,500 km2 of forest, coincident with an area of recent or ongoing tectonic uplift, rapid mechanical erosion and poorly drained soils rich in exchangeable cations. Each bamboo population is confined to a single spatially continuous patch or to a core patch with small outliers. Using spatial congruence between pairs of mature-stage maps from different years, we estimate an average life cycle of 27–28 y. It is now possible to predict exactly where and approximately when new bamboo mortality events will occur. We also map 74 bamboo populations that flowered between 2001 and 2008 over the entire domain of bamboo-dominated forest. Population size averaged 330 km2. Flowering events of these populations are temporally and/or spatially separated, restricting or preventing gene exchange. Nonetheless, adjacent populations flower closer in time than expected by chance, forming flowering waves. This may be a consequence of allochronic divergence from fewer ancestral populations and suggests a long history of widespread bamboo in the southwest Amazon. PMID:23359438

Spatial and temporal patterns of neutral and adaptive genetic variation in the endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus).

PubMed

Marsden, Clare D; Woodroffe, Rosie; Mills, Michael G L; McNutt, J Weldon; Creel, Scott; Groom, Rosemary; Emmanuel, Masenga; Cleaveland, Sarah; Kat, Pieter; Rasmussen, Gregory S A; Ginsberg, Joshua; Lines, Robin; André, Jean-Marc; Begg, Colleen; Wayne, Robert K; Mable, Barbara K

2012-03-01

Deciphering patterns of genetic variation within a species is essential for understanding population structure, local adaptation and differences in diversity between populations. Whilst neutrally evolving genetic markers can be used to elucidate demographic processes and genetic structure, they are not subject to selection and therefore are not informative about patterns of adaptive variation. As such, assessments of pertinent adaptive loci, such as the immunity genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), are increasingly being incorporated into genetic studies. In this study, we combined neutral (microsatellite, mtDNA) and adaptive (MHC class II DLA-DRB1 locus) markers to elucidate the factors influencing patterns of genetic variation in the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus); an endangered canid that has suffered extensive declines in distribution and abundance. Our genetic analyses found all extant wild dog populations to be relatively small (N(e)  < 30). Furthermore, through coalescent modelling, we detected a genetic signature of a recent and substantial demographic decline, which correlates with human expansion, but contrasts with findings in some other African mammals. We found strong structuring of wild dog populations, indicating the negative influence of extensive habitat fragmentation and loss of gene flow between habitat patches. Across populations, we found that the spatial and temporal structure of microsatellite diversity and MHC diversity were correlated and strongly influenced by demographic stability and population size, indicating the effects of genetic drift in these small populations. Despite this correlation, we detected signatures of selection at the MHC, implying that selection has not been completely overwhelmed by genetic drift. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Comparison of Drive Counts and Mark-Resight As Methods of Population Size Estimation of Highly Dense Sika Deer (Cervus nippon) Populations

PubMed Central

Takeshita, Kazutaka; Yoshida, Tsuyoshi; Igota, Hiromasa; Matsuura, Yukiko

2016-01-01

Assessing temporal changes in abundance indices is an important issue in the management of large herbivore populations. The drive counts method has been frequently used as a deer abundance index in mountainous regions. However, despite an inherent risk for observation errors in drive counts, which increase with deer density, evaluations of the utility of drive counts at a high deer density remain scarce. We compared the drive counts and mark-resight (MR) methods in the evaluation of a highly dense sika deer population (MR estimates ranged between 11 and 53 individuals/km2) on Nakanoshima Island, Hokkaido, Japan, between 1999 and 2006. This deer population experienced two large reductions in density; approximately 200 animals in total were taken from the population through a large-scale population removal and a separate winter mass mortality event. Although the drive counts tracked temporal changes in deer abundance on the island, they overestimated the counts for all years in comparison to the MR method. Increased overestimation in drive count estimates after the winter mass mortality event may be due to a double count derived from increased deer movement and recovery of body condition secondary to the mitigation of density-dependent food limitations. Drive counts are unreliable because they are affected by unfavorable factors such as bad weather, and they are cost-prohibitive to repeat, which precludes the calculation of confidence intervals. Therefore, the use of drive counts to infer the deer abundance needs to be reconsidered. PMID:27711181

Long-term dynamics of winter and summer annual communities in the Chihuahuan Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guo, Q.; Brown, J.H.; Valone, T.J.

2002-01-01

Using 15 years of census data from permanent quadrats, this paper compared the characteristics and temporal dynamics of these two distinct, spatially coexistent but temporally segregated communities. Although the total number of summer annual species recorded during our 15 years observation was higher than winter annuals, the average number of species observed each year was higher in the winter community. The winter community exhibited lower temporal variation in total plant abundance and populations of individual species, lower species turnover rate and higher evenness than the summer community. The higher seasonal species diversity (i.e., number of species observed in each season) in winters rather than the overall special pool (over 15 yrs) may be responsible for the greater community stability of winter annuals. The difference in long-term community dynamics between the two communities of annuals plants are likely due to the differences in total species pool, life history traits (e.g., seed size), and seasonal climatic regimes.

On the importance of controlling for effort in analysis of count survey data: Modeling population change from Christmas Bird Count data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.; Helbig, Andreas J.; Flade, Martin

1999-01-01

Count survey data are commonly used for estimating temporal and spatial patterns of population change. Since count surveys are not censuses, counts can be influenced by 'nuisance factors' related to the probability of detecting animals but unrelated to the actual population size. The effects of systematic changes in these factors can be confounded with patterns of population change. Thus, valid analysis of count survey data requires the identification of nuisance factors and flexible models for their effects. We illustrate using data from the Christmas Bird Count (CBC), a midwinter survey of bird populations in North America. CBC survey effort has substantially increased in recent years, suggesting that unadjusted counts may overstate population growth (or understate declines). We describe a flexible family of models for the effect of effort, that includes models in which increasing effort leads to diminishing returns in terms of the number of birds counted.

Temporal and maternal effects on reproductive ecology of the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halstead, Brian J.; Wylie, Glenn D.; Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.

2009-01-01

We used mixed-effects models to examine relationships of reproductive characteristics of the giant gartersnake (Thamnophis gigas) to improve population modeling and conservation planning for this species. Neonates from larger litters had lower mass, and mass of neonates also was affected by random variation among mothers. Length of mother did not affect relative mass of litters; however, our data suggest that longer mothers expended less reproductive effort per offspring than shorter mothers. We detected random variation in length of neonates among mothers, but these lengths were not related to length of mother or size of litter. Mean size of litter varied among years, but little evidence existed for a relationship between size of litter or mass of litter and length of mother. Sex ratios of neonates did not differ from 1:1.

A Balanced Comparison of Object Invariances in Monkey IT Neurons.

PubMed

Ratan Murty, N Apurva; Arun, Sripati P

2017-01-01

Our ability to recognize objects across variations in size, position, or rotation is based on invariant object representations in higher visual cortex. However, we know little about how these invariances are related. Are some invariances harder than others? Do some invariances arise faster than others? These comparisons can be made only upon equating image changes across transformations. Here, we targeted invariant neural representations in the monkey inferotemporal (IT) cortex using object images with balanced changes in size, position, and rotation. Across the recorded population, IT neurons generalized across size and position both stronger and faster than to rotations in the image plane as well as in depth. We obtained a similar ordering of invariances in deep neural networks but not in low-level visual representations. Thus, invariant neural representations dynamically evolve in a temporal order reflective of their underlying computational complexity.

Can migration mitigate the effects of ecosystem change? Patterns of dispersal, energy acquisition and allocation in Great Lakes lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rennie, Michael D.; Ebener, Mark P.; Wagner, Tyler

2012-01-01

Migration can be a behavioural response to poor or declining home range habitat quality and can occur when the costs of migration are overcome by the benefi ts of encountering higher-quality resources elsewhere. Despite dramatic ecosystem-level changes in the benthic food web of the Laurentian Great Lakes since the colonization of dreissenid mussels, coincident changes in condition and growth rates among benthivorous lake whitefi sh populations have been variable. We hypothesized that this variation could be in part mitigated by differences in migratory habits among populations, where increased migration distance can result in an increased probability of encountering high-quality habitat (relative to the home range). Results from four Great Lakes populations support this hypothesis; relative growth rates increased regularly with migration distance. The population with the largest average migration distance also had the least reduction in size-at-age during a period of signifi cant ecosystem change and among the highest estimated consumption and activity rates. In comparison, the population with the greatest declines in size-at-age was among the least mobile, demonstrating only moderate rates of consumption and activity. The least mobile population of lake whitefi sh was supported by a remnant Diporeia population and has experienced only moderate temporal growth declines. Our study provides evidence for the potential role of migration in mitigating the effects of ecosystem change on lake whitefi sh populations.

High variability in spatial and temporal size-based trophodynamics of deep-sea fishes from the Mid-Atlantic Ridge elucidated by stable isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, William D. K.; Sweeting, Christopher J.; Wigham, Ben D.; McGill, Rona A. R.; Polunin, Nicholas V. C.

2013-12-01

Demersal fish play an important role in the deep-sea ecosystem by acting as a link to mobile food in the water column, consuming benthic fauna, breaking down large food parcels and dispersing organic matter over large areas. Poor diet resolution from stomach content analysis often impairs the ability to assess differences in inter- and intra-population trophodynamics and therefore understand resource partitioning among deep-sea fishes. Antimora rostrata (predator-scavenger), Coryphaenoides armatus (predator-scavenger), Coryphaenoides brevibarbis (predator) and Halosauropsis macrochir (predator) were collected from 3 stations on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge (MAR) in 2007 and 2009 to investigate trophic ecology using δ13C and δ15N. Variability in lipid-normalised δ13C (δ13Cn) and δ15N was explained by body length in all species but slope and significance of the isotope-length relationships varied both temporally and spatially. δ15N increases with length were observed in A. rostrata at all stations, C. brevibarbis and H. macrochir at one or more stations but were absent in C. armatus. δ13Cn increased with length in A. rostrata but the slope of δ13Cn-length relationships varied spatially and temporally in C. armatus and C. brevibarbis. The co-occurring δ13Cn and δ15N size-based trends in A. rostrata and H. macrochir suggested that size-based trends were a result of increasing trophic position. In C. armatus and C. brevibarbis the isotope-length trends were difficult to distinguish among trophic position increases, shifts in resource use i.e. benthic to pelagic or internal physiology. However, the overall strength, direction and significance of isotope-length trends varied temporally and spatially which suggested varying degrees of overlap in trophic ecology and feeding plasticity among these species.

Vessel Sampling and Blood Flow Velocity Distribution With Vessel Diameter for Characterizing the Human Bulbar Conjunctival Microvasculature.

PubMed

Wang, Liang; Yuan, Jin; Jiang, Hong; Yan, Wentao; Cintrón-Colón, Hector R; Perez, Victor L; DeBuc, Delia C; Feuer, William J; Wang, Jianhua

2016-03-01

This study determined (1) how many vessels (i.e., the vessel sampling) are needed to reliably characterize the bulbar conjunctival microvasculature and (2) if characteristic information can be obtained from the distribution histogram of the blood flow velocity and vessel diameter. Functional slitlamp biomicroscope was used to image hundreds of venules per subject. The bulbar conjunctiva in five healthy human subjects was imaged on six different locations in the temporal bulbar conjunctiva. The histograms of the diameter and velocity were plotted to examine whether the distribution was normal. Standard errors were calculated from the standard deviation and vessel sample size. The ratio of the standard error of the mean over the population mean was used to determine the sample size cutoff. The velocity was plotted as a function of the vessel diameter to display the distribution of the diameter and velocity. The results showed that the sampling size was approximately 15 vessels, which generated a standard error equivalent to 15% of the population mean from the total vessel population. The distributions of the diameter and velocity were not only unimodal, but also somewhat positively skewed and not normal. The blood flow velocity was related to the vessel diameter (r=0.23, P<0.05). This was the first study to determine the sampling size of the vessels and the distribution histogram of the blood flow velocity and vessel diameter, which may lead to a better understanding of the human microvascular system of the bulbar conjunctiva.

Effect of risk perception on epidemic spreading in temporal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moinet, Antoine; Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Barrat, Alain

2018-01-01

Many progresses in the understanding of epidemic spreading models have been obtained thanks to numerous modeling efforts and analytical and numerical studies, considering host populations with very different structures and properties, including complex and temporal interaction networks. Moreover, a number of recent studies have started to go beyond the assumption of an absence of coupling between the spread of a disease and the structure of the contacts on which it unfolds. Models including awareness of the spread have been proposed, to mimic possible precautionary measures taken by individuals that decrease their risk of infection, but have mostly considered static networks. Here, we adapt such a framework to the more realistic case of temporal networks of interactions between individuals. We study the resulting model by analytical and numerical means on both simple models of temporal networks and empirical time-resolved contact data. Analytical results show that the epidemic threshold is not affected by the awareness but that the prevalence can be significantly decreased. Numerical studies on synthetic temporal networks highlight, however, the presence of very strong finite-size effects, resulting in a significant shift of the effective epidemic threshold in the presence of risk awareness. For empirical contact networks, the awareness mechanism leads as well to a shift in the effective threshold and to a strong reduction of the epidemic prevalence.

Temporal growth and spatial distribution of the fast food industry and its relationship with economic development in China - 2005-2012.

PubMed

Xue, Hong; Cheng, Xi; Zhang, Qi; Wang, Huijun; Zhang, Bing; Qu, Weidong; Wang, Youfa

2017-09-01

The fast food (FF) industry has expanded rapidly in China during the past two decades, in parallel with an increase in the prevalence of obesity. Using government-reported longitudinal data from 21 provinces and cities in China, this study examined the growth over time and the spatial distribution patterns of the FF industry as well as the key social economic factors involved. We visualized the temporal and geographic distributions of FF industry development and conducted cross-sectional and longitudinal spatial analysis to assess associations between macroeconomic conditions, population dynamics, and the growth and distributional changes of the industry. It grew faster in the southeast coastal (more economically developed) areas since 2005 than in other regions. The industry was: 1) highly correlated with Gross Domestic Product; 2) highly correlated with per capita disposable income for urban residents; 3) moderately correlated with urban population; and 4) not correlated with an increase of population size. The mean center of the FF industry shifted westward as the mean center of the GDP moved in the same direction, while the mean center of the population shifted eastward. The results suggest that the rapid FF industry expansion in China was closely associated with economic growth and that improving the food environment should be a major component in local economic development planning. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Species composition and morphologic variation of Porites in the Gulf of California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

López-Pérez, R. A.

2013-09-01

Morphometric analysis of corallite calices confirmed that from the late Miocene to the Recent, four species of Porites have inhabited the Gulf of California: the extinct Porites carrizensis, the locally extirpated Porites lobata and the extant Porites sverdrupi and Porites panamensis. Furthermore, large-scale spatial and temporal phenotypic plasticity was observed in the dominant species P. panamensis. Canonical discriminant analysis and ANOVA demonstrated that the calice structures of P. panamensis experienced size reduction between the late Pleistocene and Recent. Similarly, PERMANOVA, regression and correlation analyses demonstrated that across the 800 km north to south in the gulf, P. panamensis populations displayed a similar reduction in calice structures. Based on correlation analysis with environmental data, these large spatial changes are likely related to changes in nutrient concentration and sea surface temperature. As such, the large-scale spatial and temporal phenotypic variation recorded in populations of P. panamensis in the Gulf of California is likely related to optimization of corallite performance (energy acquisition) within various environmental scenarios. These findings may have relevance to modern conservation efforts within this ecological dominant genus.

Detecting and modelling delayed density-dependence in abundance time series of a small mammal (Didelphis aurita)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigatti, E.; Vieira, M. V.; Kajin, M.; Almeida, P. J. A. L.; de Menezes, M. A.; Cerqueira, R.

2016-02-01

We study the population size time series of a Neotropical small mammal with the intent of detecting and modelling population regulation processes generated by density-dependent factors and their possible delayed effects. The application of analysis tools based on principles of statistical generality are nowadays a common practice for describing these phenomena, but, in general, they are more capable of generating clear diagnosis rather than granting valuable modelling. For this reason, in our approach, we detect the principal temporal structures on the bases of different correlation measures, and from these results we build an ad-hoc minimalist autoregressive model that incorporates the main drivers of the dynamics. Surprisingly our model is capable of reproducing very well the time patterns of the empirical series and, for the first time, clearly outlines the importance of the time of attaining sexual maturity as a central temporal scale for the dynamics of this species. In fact, an important advantage of this analysis scheme is that all the model parameters are directly biologically interpretable and potentially measurable, allowing a consistency check between model outputs and independent measurements.

Spatial and seasonal dynamics of brook trout populations inhabiting a central Appalachian watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Petty, J.T.; Lamothe, P.J.; Mazik, P.M.

2005-01-01

We quantified the watershed-scale spatial population dynamics of brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the Second Fork, a third-order tributary of Shavers Fork in eastern West Virginia. We used visual surveys, electrofishing, and mark-recapture techniques to quantify brook trout spawning intensity, population density, size structure, and demographic rates (apparent survival and immigration) throughout the watershed. Our analyses produced the following results. Spawning by brook trout was concentrated in streams with small basin areas (i.e., segments draining less than 3 km2), relatively high alkalinity (>10 mg CaCO3/L), and high amounts of instream cover. The spatial distribution of juvenile and small-adult brook trout within the watershed was relatively stable and was significantly correlated with spawning intensity. However, no such relationship was observed for large adults, which exhibited highly variable distribution patterns related to seasonally important habitat features, including instream cover, stream depth and width, and riparian canopy cover. Brook trout survival and immigration rates varied seasonally, spatially, and among size-classes. Differential survival and immigration tended to concentrate juveniles and small adults in small, alkaline streams, whereas dispersal tended to redistribute large adults at the watershed scale. Our results suggest that spatial and temporal variations in spawning, survival, and movement interact to determine the distribution, abundance, and size structure of brook trout populations at a watershed scale. These results underscore the importance of small tributaries for the persistence of brook trout in this watershed and the need to consider watershed-scale processes when designing management plans for Appalachian brook trout populations. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2005.

Pollination ecology of Silene acutifolia (Caryophyllaceae): floral traits variation and pollinator attraction.

PubMed

Buide, María Luisa

2006-02-01

The floral display influences the composition of pollinators interacting with a plant species. Geographic and temporal variation in pollinator composition complicates the understanding of the evolutionary consequences of floral display variation. This paper analyses the relationships between Silene acutifolia, a hermaphroditic perennial herb, and its pollinators, based on field studies in the north-west of Spain. Studies were conducted over three years (1997-1999). Firstly, the main pollinators of this species were determined for two years in one population. Secondly, pollen limitation in fruit and seed production was analysed by supplementary hand pollinations, and counting the pollen grains and tubes growing in styles for two different-sized populations. Finally, the effect of flower size and number on the rate of visitation and total seed number was examined for 15 marked plants. The primary pollinators were long-tongued insects, including Hymenoptera, Lepidoptera and Diptera, but the composition and visitation frequencies differed between years. Pollen limitation occurred in one of the years of study. There was between-population variation in the number of pollen grains and pollen tubes found in styles, suggesting pollen limitation in one population. Overall, pollinators visited plants with more open flowers more frequently, and pollinated more flowers within these plants. Conversely, petal and calyx sizes had no effect on insect visitation. Plants with higher rates of visits produced higher number of seeds, suggesting that pollinator-mediated limitation of seed and fruit production may be important in some years.

Spatial and seasonal dynamic of abundance and distribution of guanaco and livestock: insights from using density surface and null models.

PubMed

Schroeder, Natalia M; Matteucci, Silvia D; Moreno, Pablo G; Gregorio, Pablo; Ovejero, Ramiro; Taraborelli, Paula; Carmanchahi, Pablo D

2014-01-01

Monitoring species abundance and distribution is a prerequisite when assessing species status and population viability, a difficult task to achieve for large herbivores at ecologically meaningful scales. Co-occurrence patterns can be used to infer mechanisms of community organization (such as biotic interactions), although it has been traditionally applied to binary presence/absence data. Here, we combine density surface and null models of abundance data as a novel approach to analyze the spatial and seasonal dynamics of abundance and distribution of guanacos (Lama guanicoe) and domestic herbivores in northern Patagonia, in order to visually and analytically compare the dispersion and co-occurrence pattern of ungulates. We found a marked seasonal pattern in abundance and spatial distribution of L. guanicoe. The guanaco population reached its maximum annual size and spatial dispersion in spring-summer, decreasing up to 6.5 times in size and occupying few sites of the study area in fall-winter. These results are evidence of the seasonal migration process of guanaco populations, an increasingly rare event for terrestrial mammals worldwide. The maximum number of guanacos estimated for spring (25,951) is higher than the total population size (10,000) 20 years ago, probably due to both counting methodology and population growth. Livestock were mostly distributed near human settlements, as expected by the sedentary management practiced by local people. Herbivore distribution was non-random; i.e., guanaco and livestock abundances co-varied negatively in all seasons, more than expected by chance. Segregation degree of guanaco and small-livestock (goats and sheep) was comparatively stronger than that of guanaco and large-livestock, suggesting a competition mechanism between ecologically similar herbivores, although various environmental factors could also contribute to habitat segregation. The new and compelling combination of methods used here is highly useful for researchers who conduct counts of animals to simultaneously estimate population sizes, distributions, assess temporal trends and characterize multi-species spatial interactions.

Decadal stability in genetic variation and structure in the intertidal seaweed Fucus serratus (Heterokontophyta: Fucaceae).

PubMed

Jueterbock, Alexander; Coyer, James A; Olsen, Jeanine L; Hoarau, Galice

2018-06-15

The spatial distribution of genetic diversity and structure has important implications for conservation as it reveals a species' strong and weak points with regard to stability and evolutionary capacity. Temporal genetic stability is rarely tested in marine species other than commercially important fishes, but is crucial for the utility of temporal snapshots in conservation management. High and stable diversity can help to mitigate the predicted northward range shift of seaweeds under the impact of climate change. Given the key ecological role of fucoid seaweeds along rocky shores, the positive effect of genetic diversity may reach beyond the species level to stabilize the entire intertidal ecosystem along the temperate North Atlantic. In this study, we estimated the effective population size, as well as temporal changes in genetic structure and diversity of the seaweed F. serratus using 22 microsatellite markers. Samples were taken across latitudes and a range of temperature regimes at seven locations with decadal sampling (2000 and 2010). Across latitudes, genetic structure and diversity remained stable over 5-10 generations. Stable small-scale structure enhanced regional diversity throughout the species' range. In accordance with its biogeographic history, effective population size and diversity peaked in the species' mid-range in Brittany (France), and declined towards its leading and trailing edge to the north and south. At the species' southern edge, multi-locus-heterozygosity displayed a strong decline from 1999 to 2010. Temporally stable genetic structure over small spatial scales is a potential driver for local adaptation and species radiation in the genus Fucus. Survival and adaptation of the low-diversity leading edge of F. serratus may be enhanced by regional gene flow and 'surfing' of favorable mutations or impaired by the accumulation of deleterious mutations. Our results have clear implications for the conservation of F. serratus at its genetically unique southern edge in Northwest Iberia, where increasing temperatures are likely the major cause for the decline not only of F. serratus, but also other intertidal and subtidal macroalgae. We expect that F. serratus will disappear from Northwest Iberia by 2100 if genetic rescue is not induced by the influx of genetic variation from Brittany.

Temporal genetic stability of Stegomyia aegypti (= Aedes aegypti) populations.

PubMed

Gloria-Soria, A; Kellner, D A; Brown, J E; Gonzalez-Acosta, C; Kamgang, B; Lutwama, J; Powell, J R

2016-06-01

The mosquito Stegomyia aegypti (= Aedes aegypti) (Diptera: Culicidae) is the primary vector of viruses that cause yellow fever, dengue and Chikungunya fever. In the absence of effective vaccines, the reduction of these diseases relies on vector control strategies. The success of these strategies is tightly linked to the population dynamics of target populations. In the present study, 14 collections from St. aegypti populations separated by periods of 1-13 years were analysed to determine their temporal genetic stability. Although temporal structure is discernible in most populations, the degree of temporal differentiation is dependent on the population and does not obscure the geographic structure of the various populations. The results suggest that performing detailed studies in the years prior to and after population reduction- or modification-based control interventions at each target field site may be useful in assessing the probability of success. © 2016 The Royal Entomological Society.

Evaluating the power to detect temporal trends in fishery-independent time surveys: A case study based on gill nets set in the Ohio waters of Lake Erie for walleyes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Vandergoot, Christopher S.; Tyson, Jeff

2011-01-01

Fishery-independent (FI) surveys provide critical information used for the sustainable management and conservation of fish populations. Because fisheries management often requires the effects of management actions to be evaluated and detected within a relatively short time frame, it is important that research be directed toward FI survey evaluation, especially with respect to the ability to detect temporal trends. Using annual FI gill-net survey data for Lake Erie walleyes Sander vitreus collected from 1978 to 2006 as a case study, our goals were to (1) highlight the usefulness of hierarchical models for estimating spatial and temporal sources of variation in catch per effort (CPE); (2) demonstrate how the resulting variance estimates can be used to examine the statistical power to detect temporal trends in CPE in relation to sample size, duration of sampling, and decisions regarding what data are most appropriate for analysis; and (3) discuss recommendations for evaluating FI surveys and analyzing the resulting data to support fisheries management. This case study illustrated that the statistical power to detect temporal trends was low over relatively short sampling periods (e.g., 5–10 years) unless the annual decline in CPE reached 10–20%. For example, if 50 sites were sampled each year, a 10% annual decline in CPE would not be detected with more than 0.80 power until 15 years of sampling, and a 5% annual decline would not be detected with more than 0.8 power for approximately 22 years. Because the evaluation of FI surveys is essential for ensuring that trends in fish populations can be detected over management-relevant time periods, we suggest using a meta-analysis–type approach across systems to quantify sources of spatial and temporal variation. This approach can be used to evaluate and identify sampling designs that increase the ability of managers to make inferences about trends in fish stocks.

Evaluating the power to detect temporal trends in fishery independent surveys: A case study based on Gillnets Set in the Ohio waters of Lake Erie for walleye

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Vandergoot, Christopher S.; Tyson, Jeff

2009-01-01

Fishery-independent (FI) surveys provide critical information used for the sustainable management and conservation of fish populations. Because fisheries management often requires the effects of management actions to be evaluated and detected within a relatively short time frame, it is important that research be directed toward FI survey evaluation, especially with respect to the ability to detect temporal trends. Using annual FI gill-net survey data for Lake Erie walleyes Sander vitreus collected from 1978 to 2006 as a case study, our goals were to (1) highlight the usefulness of hierarchical models for estimating spatial and temporal sources of variation in catch per effort (CPE); (2) demonstrate how the resulting variance estimates can be used to examine the statistical power to detect temporal trends in CPE in relation to sample size, duration of sampling, and decisions regarding what data are most appropriate for analysis; and (3) discuss recommendations for evaluating FI surveys and analyzing the resulting data to support fisheries management. This case study illustrated that the statistical power to detect temporal trends was low over relatively short sampling periods (e.g., 5–10 years) unless the annual decline in CPE reached 10–20%. For example, if 50 sites were sampled each year, a 10% annual decline in CPE would not be detected with more than 0.80 power until 15 years of sampling, and a 5% annual decline would not be detected with more than 0.8 power for approximately 22 years. Because the evaluation of FI surveys is essential for ensuring that trends in fish populations can be detected over management-relevant time periods, we suggest using a meta-analysis–type approach across systems to quantify sources of spatial and temporal variation. This approach can be used to evaluate and identify sampling designs that increase the ability of managers to make inferences about trends in fish stocks.

Heterogeneous effects of market integration on sub-adult body size and nutritional status among the Shuar of Amazonian Ecuador.

PubMed

Urlacher, Samuel S; Liebert, Melissa A; Josh Snodgrass, J; Blackwell, Aaron D; Cepon-Robins, Tara J; Gildner, Theresa E; Madimenos, Felicia C; Amir, Dorsa; Bribiescas, Richard G; Sugiyama, Lawrence S

2016-07-01

Market integration (MI)-increasing production for and consumption from a market-based economy-is drastically altering traditional ways of life and environmental conditions among indigenous Amazonian peoples. The effects of MI on the biology and health of Amazonian children and adolescents, however, remain unclear. This study examines the impact of MI on sub-adult body size and nutritional status at the population, regional and household levels among the Shuar of Amazonian Ecuador. Anthropometric data were collected between 2005-2014 from 2164 Shuar (aged 2-19 years) living in two geographic regions differing in general degree of MI. High-resolution household economic, lifestyle and dietary data were collected from a sub-sample of 631 participants. Analyses were performed to investigate relationships between body size and year of data collection, region and specific aspects of household MI. Results from temporal and regional analyses suggest that MI has a significant and overall positive impact on Shuar body size and nutritional status. However, household-level results exhibit nuanced and heterogeneous specific effects of MI underlying these overarching relationships. This study provides novel insight into the complex socio-ecological pathways linking MI, physical growth and health among the Shuar and other indigenous Amazonian populations.

Heterogeneous effects of market integration on subadult body size and nutritional status among the Shuar of Amazonian Ecuador

PubMed Central

Urlacher, Samuel S.; Liebert, Melissa A.; Snodgrass, J. Josh; Blackwell, Aaron D.; Cepon-Robins, Tara J.; Gildner, Theresa E.; Madimenos, Felicia C.; Amir, Dorsa; Bribiescas, Richard G.; Sugiyama, Lawrence S.

2016-01-01

Background Market integration (MI) – increasing production for and consumption from a market-based economy – is drastically altering traditional ways of life and environmental conditions among indigenous Amazonian peoples. The effects of MI on the biology and health of Amazonian children and adolescents, however, remain unclear. Aim This study examines the impact of MI on subadult body size and nutritional status at the population, regional, and household levels among the Shuar of Amazonian Ecuador. Subjects and Methods Anthropometric data were collected between 2005 and 2014 from 2,164 Shuar (age 2-19 years) living in two geographic regions differing in general degree of MI. High-resolution household economic, lifestyle, and dietary data were collected from a subsample of 631 participants. Analyses were performed to investigate relationships between body size and year of data collection, region, and specific aspects of household MI. Results Results from temporal and regional analyses suggest that MI has a significant and overall positive impact on Shuar body size and nutritional status. However, household-level results exhibit nuanced and heterogeneous specific effects of MI underlying these overarching relationships. Conclusion This study provides novel insight into the complex socio-ecological pathways linking MI, physical growth, and health among the Shuar and other indigenous Amazonian populations. PMID:27230632

Male Kirtland's Warblers' patch-level response to landscape structure during periods of varying population size and habitat amounts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donner, D.M.; Ribic, C.A.; Probst, J.R.

2009-01-01

Forest planners must evaluate how spatiotemporal changes in habitat amount and configuration across the landscape as a result of timber management will affect species' persistence. However, there are few long-term programs available for evaluation. We investigated the response of male Kirtland's Warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii) to 26 years of changing patch and landscape structure during a large, 26-year forestry-habitat restoration program within the warbler's primary breeding range. We found that the average density of male Kirtland's Warblers was related to a different combination of patch and landscape attributes depending on the species' regional population level and habitat amounts on the landscape (early succession jack pine (Pinus banksiana) forests; 15-42% habitat cover). Specifically, patch age and habitat regeneration type were important at low male population and total habitat amounts, while patch age and distance to an occupied patch were important at relatively high population and habitat amounts. Patch age and size were more important at increasing population levels and an intermediate amount of habitat. The importance of patch age to average male density during all periods reflects the temporal buildup and decline of male numbers as habitat suitability within the patch changed with succession. Habitat selection (i.e., preference for wildfire-regenerated habitat) and availability may explain the importance of habitat type and patch size during lower population and habitat levels. The relationship between male density and distance when there was the most habitat on the landscape and the male population was large and still increasing may be explained by the widening spatial dispersion of the increasing male population at the regional scale. Because creating or preserving habitat is not a random process, management efforts would benefit from more investigations of managed population responses to changes in spatial structure that occur through habitat gain rather than habitat loss to further our empirical understanding of general principles of the fragmentation process and habitat cover threshold effects within dynamic landscapes.

Rapid polygenic response to secondary contact in a hybrid species

PubMed Central

Cuevas, Angélica; Hermansen, Jo S.; Elgvin, Tore O.; Fernández, Laura Piñeiro; Sæther, Stein A.; Cascio Sætre, Camilla Lo

2017-01-01

Secondary contact between closely related species can have genetic consequences. Competition for essential resources may lead to divergence in heritable traits that reduces interspecific competition leading to increased rate of genetic divergence. Conversely, hybridization and backcrossing can lead to genetic convergence. Here, we study a population of a hybrid species, the Italian sparrow (Passer italiae), before and after it came into secondary contact with one of its parent species, the Spanish sparrow (P. hispaniolensis), in 2013. We demonstrate strong consequences of interspecific competition: Italian sparrows were kept away from a popular feeding site by its parent species, resulting in poorer body condition and a significant drop in population size. Although no significant morphological change could be detected, after only 3 years of sympatry, the Italian sparrows had diverged significantly from the Spanish sparrows across a set of 81 protein-coding genes. These temporal genetic changes are mirrored by genetic divergence observed in older sympatric Italian sparrow populations within the same area of contact. Compared with microallopatric birds, sympatric ones are genetically more diverged from Spanish sparrows. Six significant outlier genes in the temporal and spatial comparison (i.e. showing the greatest displacement) have all been found to be associated with learning and neural development in other bird species. PMID:28446700

Temporal and spatial changes in social vulnerability to natural hazards

PubMed Central

Cutter, Susan L.; Finch, Christina

2008-01-01

During the past four decades (1960–2000), the United States experienced major transformations in population size, development patterns, economic conditions, and social characteristics. These social, economic, and built-environment changes altered the American hazardscape in profound ways, with more people living in high-hazard areas than ever before. To improve emergency management, it is important to recognize the variability in the vulnerable populations exposed to hazards and to develop place-based emergency plans accordingly. The concept of social vulnerability identifies sensitive populations that may be less likely to respond to, cope with, and recover from a natural disaster. Social vulnerability is complex and dynamic, changing over space and through time. This paper presents empirical evidence on the spatial and temporal patterns in social vulnerability in the United States from 1960 to the present. Using counties as our study unit, we found that those components that consistently increased social vulnerability for all time periods were density (urban), race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. The spatial patterning of social vulnerability, although initially concentrated in certain geographic regions, has become more dispersed over time. The national trend shows a steady reduction in social vulnerability, but there is considerable regional variability, with many counties increasing in social vulnerability during the past five decades. PMID:18268336

Exploiting ecology in drug pulse sequences in favour of population reduction.

PubMed

Bauer, Marianne; Graf, Isabella R; Ngampruetikorn, Vudtiwat; Stephens, Greg J; Frey, Erwin

2017-09-01

A deterministic population dynamics model involving birth and death for a two-species system, comprising a wild-type and more resistant species competing via logistic growth, is subjected to two distinct stress environments designed to mimic those that would typically be induced by temporal variation in the concentration of a drug (antibiotic or chemotherapeutic) as it permeates through the population and is progressively degraded. Different treatment regimes, involving single or periodical doses, are evaluated in terms of the minimal population size (a measure of the extinction probability), and the population composition (a measure of the selection pressure for resistance or tolerance during the treatment). We show that there exist timescales over which the low-stress regime is as effective as the high-stress regime, due to the competition between the two species. For multiple periodic treatments, competition can ensure that the minimal population size is attained during the first pulse when the high-stress regime is short, which implies that a single short pulse can be more effective than a more protracted regime. Our results suggest that when the duration of the high-stress environment is restricted, a treatment with one or multiple shorter pulses can produce better outcomes than a single long treatment. If ecological competition is to be exploited for treatments, it is crucial to determine these timescales, and estimate for the minimal population threshold that suffices for extinction. These parameters can be quantified by experiment.

Determination of Flaw Size and Depth From Temporal Evolution of Thermal Response

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winfree, William P.; Zalameda, Joseph N.; Cramer, Elliott; Howell, Patricia A.

2015-01-01

Simple methods for reducing the pulsed thermographic responses of flaws have tended to be based on either the spatial or temporal response. This independent assessment limits the accuracy of characterization. A variational approach is presented for reducing the thermographic data to produce an estimated size for a flaw that incorporates both the temporal and spatial response to improve the characterization. The size and depth are determined from both the temporal and spatial thermal response of the exterior surface above a flaw and constraints on the length of the contour surrounding the delamination. Examples of the application of the technique to simulation and experimental data acquired are presented to investigate the limitations of the technique.

Effects of speckle/pixel size ratio on temporal and spatial speckle-contrast analysis of dynamic scattering systems: Implications for measurements of blood-flow dynamics.

PubMed

Ramirez-San-Juan, J C; Mendez-Aguilar, E; Salazar-Hermenegildo, N; Fuentes-Garcia, A; Ramos-Garcia, R; Choi, B

2013-01-01

Laser Speckle Contrast Imaging (LSCI) is an optical technique used to generate blood flow maps with high spatial and temporal resolution. It is well known that in LSCI, the speckle size must exceed the Nyquist criterion to maximize the speckle's pattern contrast. In this work, we study experimentally the effect of speckle-pixel size ratio not only in dynamic speckle contrast, but also on the calculation of the relative flow speed for temporal and spatial analysis. Our data suggest that the temporal LSCI algorithm is more accurate at assessing the relative changes in flow speed than the spatial algorithm.

A multi-scale assessment of animal aggregation patterns to understand increasing pathogen seroprevalence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brennan, Angela K.; Cross, Paul C.; Higgs, Megan D.; Edwards, W. Henry; Scurlock, Brandon M.; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

Understanding how animal density is related to pathogen transmission is important to develop effective disease control strategies, but requires measuring density at a scale relevant to transmission. However, this is not straightforward or well-studied among large mammals with group sizes that range several orders of magnitude or aggregation patterns that vary across space and time. To address this issue, we examined spatial variation in elk (Cervus canadensis) aggregation patterns and brucellosis across 10 regions in the Greater Yellowstone Area where previous studies suggest the disease may be increasing. We hypothesized that rates of increasing brucellosis would be better related to the frequency of large groups than mean group size or population density, but we examined whether other measures of density would also explain rising seroprevalence. To do this, we measured wintering elk density and group size across multiple spatial and temporal scales from monthly aerial surveys. We used Bayesian hierarchical models and 20 years of serologic data to estimate rates of increase in brucellosis within the 10 regions, and to examine the linear relationships between these estimated rates of increase and multiple measures of aggregation. Brucellosis seroprevalence increased over time in eight regions (one region showed an estimated increase from 0.015 in 1991 to 0.26 in 2011), and these rates of increase were positively related to all measures of aggregation. The relationships were weaker when the analysis was restricted to areas where brucellosis was present for at least two years, potentially because aggregation was related to disease-establishment within a population. Our findings suggest that (1) group size did not explain brucellosis increases any better than population density and (2) some elk populations may have high densities with small groups or lower densities with large groups, but brucellosis is likely to increase in either scenario. In this case, any one control method such as reducing population density or group size may not be sufficient to reduce transmission. This study highlights the importance of examining the density-transmission relationship at multiple scales and across populations before broadly applying disease control strategies.

Integrating data from multiple sources for insights into demographic processes: Simulation studies and proof of concept for hierarchical change-in-ratio models.

PubMed

Nilsen, Erlend B; Strand, Olav

2018-01-01

We developed a model for estimating demographic rates and population abundance based on multiple data sets revealing information about population age- and sex structure. Such models have previously been described in the literature as change-in-ratio models, but we extend the applicability of the models by i) using time series data allowing the full temporal dynamics to be modelled, by ii) casting the model in an explicit hierarchical modelling framework, and by iii) estimating parameters based on Bayesian inference. Based on sensitivity analyses we conclude that the approach developed here is able to obtain estimates of demographic rate with high precision whenever unbiased data of population structure are available. Our simulations revealed that this was true also when data on population abundance are not available or not included in the modelling framework. Nevertheless, when data on population structure are biased due to different observability of different age- and sex categories this will affect estimates of all demographic rates. Estimates of population size is particularly sensitive to such biases, whereas demographic rates can be relatively precisely estimated even with biased observation data as long as the bias is not severe. We then use the models to estimate demographic rates and population abundance for two Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations where age-sex data were available for all harvested animals, and where population structure surveys were carried out in early summer (after calving) and late fall (after hunting season), and population size is counted in winter. We found that demographic rates were similar regardless whether we include population count data in the modelling, but that the estimated population size is affected by this decision. This suggest that monitoring programs that focus on population age- and sex structure will benefit from collecting additional data that allow estimation of observability for different age- and sex classes. In addition, our sensitivity analysis suggests that focusing monitoring towards changes in demographic rates might be more feasible than monitoring abundance in many situations where data on population age- and sex structure can be collected.

Can males contribute to the genetic improvement of a species?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bernardes, A.T.

1997-01-01

In the time evolution of finite populations, the accumulation of harmful mutations in further generations might have lead to a temporal decay in the mean fitness of the whole population. This, in turn, would reduce the population size and so lead to its extinction. The production of genetically diverse offspring, through recombination, is a powerful mechanism in order to avoid this catastrophic route. From a selfish point of view, meiotic parthenogenesis can ensure the maintenance of better genomes, while sexual reproduction presents the risk of genome dilution. In this paper, by using Monte Carlo simulations of age-structured populations, through themore » Penna model, I compare the evolution of populations with different reproductive regimes. It is shown that sexual reproduction with male competition can produce better results than meiotic parthenogenesis. This contradicts results recently published, but agrees with the strong evidence that nature chose sexual reproduction instead of partenogenesis for most of the higher species.« less

Spatial and temporal consumption dynamics of trout in catch-and-release areas in Arkansas tailwaters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flinders, John M.; Magoulick, Daniel D.

2017-01-01

Restrictive angling regulations in tailwater trout fisheries may be unsuccessful if food availability limits energy for fish to grow. We examined spatial and temporal variation in energy intake and growth in populations of Brown Trout Salmo trutta and Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss within three catch-and-release (C-R) areas in Arkansas tailwaters to evaluate food availability compared with consumption. Based on bioenergetic simulations, Rainbow Trout fed at submaintenance levels in both size-classes (≤400 mm TL, >400 mm TL) throughout most seasons. A particular bottleneck in food availability occurred in the winter for Rainbow Trout when the daily ration was substantially below the minimum required for maintenance, despite reduced metabolic costs associated with lower water temperatures. Rainbow Trout growth rates followed a similar pattern to consumption with negative growth rates during the winter periods. All three size-classes (<250 mm TL, 250–400 mm TL, >400 mm TL) of Brown Trout experienced high growth rates and limited temporal bottlenecks in food availability. We observed higher mean densities for Rainbow Trout (47–342 fish/ha) than for Brown Trout (3–84 fish/ha) in all C-R areas. Lower densities of Brown Trout coupled with an ontogenetic shift towards piscivory may have allowed for higher growth rates and sufficient consumption rates to meet energetic demands. Brown Trout at current densities were more effective in maintaining adequate growth rates and larger sizes in C-R areas than were Rainbow Trout. Bioenergetic simulations suggest that reducing stocking levels of Rainbow Trout in the tailwaters may be necessary in order to achieve increased catch rates of larger trout in the C-R areas.

Stimulus-response correspondence effect as a function of temporal overlap between relevant and irrelevant information processing.

PubMed

Wang, Dong-Yuan Debbie; Richard, F Dan; Ray, Brittany

2016-01-01

The stimulus-response correspondence (SRC) effect refers to advantages in performance when stimulus and response correspond in dimensions or features, even if the common features are irrelevant to the task. Previous research indicated that the SRC effect depends on the temporal course of stimulus information processing. The current study investigated how the temporal overlap between relevant and irrelevant stimulus processing influences the SRC effect. In this experiment, the irrelevant stimulus (a previously associated tone) preceded the relevant stimulus (a coloured rectangle). The irrelevant and relevant stimuli onset asynchrony was varied to manipulate the temporal overlap between the irrelevant and relevant stimuli processing. Results indicated that the SRC effect size varied as a quadratic function of the temporal overlap between the relevant stimulus and irrelevant stimulus. This finding extends previous experimental observations that the SRC effect size varies in an increasing or decreasing function with reaction time. The current study demonstrated a quadratic function between effect size and the temporal overlap.

A Balanced Comparison of Object Invariances in Monkey IT Neurons

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Abstract Our ability to recognize objects across variations in size, position, or rotation is based on invariant object representations in higher visual cortex. However, we know little about how these invariances are related. Are some invariances harder than others? Do some invariances arise faster than others? These comparisons can be made only upon equating image changes across transformations. Here, we targeted invariant neural representations in the monkey inferotemporal (IT) cortex using object images with balanced changes in size, position, and rotation. Across the recorded population, IT neurons generalized across size and position both stronger and faster than to rotations in the image plane as well as in depth. We obtained a similar ordering of invariances in deep neural networks but not in low-level visual representations. Thus, invariant neural representations dynamically evolve in a temporal order reflective of their underlying computational complexity. PMID:28413827

Optimal exploitation of spatially distributed trophic resources and population stability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Basset, A.; Fedele, M.; DeAngelis, D.L.

2002-01-01

The relationships between optimal foraging of individuals and population stability are addressed by testing, with a spatially explicit model, the effect of patch departure behaviour on individual energetics and population stability. A factorial experimental design was used to analyse the relevance of the behavioural factor in relation to three factors that are known to affect individual energetics; i.e. resource growth rate (RGR), assimilation efficiency (AE), and body size of individuals. The factorial combination of these factors produced 432 cases, and 1000 replicate simulations were run for each case. Net energy intake rates of the modelled consumers increased with increasing RGR, consumer AE, and consumer body size, as expected. Moreover, through their patch departure behaviour, by selecting the resource level at which they departed from the patch, individuals managed to substantially increase their net energy intake rates. Population stability was also affected by the behavioural factors and by the other factors, but with highly non-linear responses. Whenever resources were limiting for the consumers because of low RGR, large individual body size or low AE, population density at the equilibrium was directly related to the patch departure behaviour; on the other hand, optimal patch departure behaviour, which maximised the net energy intake at the individual level, had a negative influence on population stability whenever resource availability was high for the consumers. The consumer growth rate (r) and numerical dynamics, as well as the spatial and temporal fluctuations of resource density, which were the proximate causes of population stability or instability, were affected by the behavioural factor as strongly or even more strongly than by the others factors considered here. Therefore, patch departure behaviour can act as a feedback control of individual energetics, allowing consumers to optimise a potential trade-off between short-term individual fitness and long-term population stability. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Temporal changes in deep-sea sponge populations are correlated to changes in surface climate and food supply

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kahn, Amanda S.; Ruhl, Henry A.; Smith, Kenneth L.

2012-12-01

Density and average size of two species of abyssal sponges were analyzed at Station M (∼4100 m depth) over an 18-year time-series (1989-2006) using camera sled transects. Both sponge taxa share a similar plate-like morphology despite being within different families, and both showed similar variations in density and average body size over time, suggesting that the same factors may control the demographics of both species. Peaks in significant cross correlations between increases in particulate organic carbon flux and corresponding increases in sponge density occurred with a time lag of 13 months. Sponge density also fluctuated with changes in two climate indices: the NOI with a time lag of 18 months and NPGO with a time lag of 15 months. The results support previous suggestions that increased particulate organic carbon flux may induce recruitment or regeneration in deep-sea sponges. It is unknown whether the appearance of young individuals results from recruitment, regeneration, or both, but the population responses to seasonal and inter-annual changes in food supply demonstrate that sponge populations are dynamic and are capable of responding to inter-annual changes despite being sessile and presumably slow-growing.

Interdecadal heterogeneity in mitochondrial DNA of Atlantic haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) from Georges Bank.

PubMed

Purcell, M K; Kornfield, I; Fogarty, M; Parker, A

1996-09-01

Atlantic haddock of Georges Bank are characterized by large fluctuations in population size and a recent collapse of the commercial fishery. DNA extracted from dried scales of Georges Bank haddock, archived by the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), reveals significant heterogeneity in frequencies of four mitochondrial DNA control region haplotypes between 1975 and 1985 cohorts. Several processes may be responsible for this temporal variation, the most attractive hypothesis being that haddock from other geographic regions episodically contribute to the Georges Bank gene pool. Thus, the population of haddock spawning on Georges Bank may not be genetically discrete and, with respect to Atlantic haddock, Georges Bank may not be viewed as a closed system.

Space-time models for a panzootic in bats, with a focus on the endangered Indiana bat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; King, R. Andrew; Szymanski, Jennifer A.; Pruitt, Lori

2012-01-01

Knowledge of current trends of quickly spreading infectious wildlife diseases is vital to efficient and effective management. We developed space-time mixed-effects logistic regressions to characterize a disease, white-nose syndrome (WNS), quickly spreading among endangered Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) in eastern North America. Our goal was to calculate and map the risk probability faced by uninfected colonies of hibernating Indiana bats. Model covariates included annual distance from and direction to nearest sources of infection, geolocational information, size of the Indiana bat populations within each wintering population, and total annual size of populations known or suspected to be affected by WNS. We considered temporal, spatial, and spatiotemporal formulae through the use of random effects for year, complex (a collection of interacting hibernacula), and yearxcomplex. Since first documented in 2006, WNS has spread across much of the range of the Indiana bat. No sizeable wintering population now occurs outside of the migrational distance of an infected source. Annual rates of newly affected wintering Indiana bat populations between winter 2007 to 2008 and 2010 to 2011 were 4, 6, 8, and 12%; this rate increased each year at a rate of 3%. If this increasing rate of newly affected populations continues, all wintering populations may be affected by 2016. Our models indicated the probability of a wintering population exhibiting infection was a linear function of proximity to affected Indiana bat populations and size of the at-risk population. Geographic location was also important, suggesting broad-scale influences. For every 50-km increase in distance from a WNS-affected population, risk of disease declined by 6% (95% CI=5.2-5.7%); for every increase of 1,000 Indiana bats, there was an 8% (95% CI = 1-21%) increase in disease risk. The increasing rate of infection seems to be associated with the movement of this disease into the core of the Indiana bat range. Our spatially explicit estimates of disease risk may aid managers in prioritizing surveillance and management for wintering populations of Indiana bats and help understand the risk faced by other hibernating bat species.

Spatial and temporal disaggregation of the on-road vehicle emission inventory in a medium-sized Andean city. Comparison of GIS-based top-down methodologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gómez, C. D.; González, C. M.; Osses, M.; Aristizábal, B. H.

2018-04-01

Emission data is an essential tool for understanding environmental problems associated with sources and dynamics of air pollutants in urban environments, especially those emitted from vehicular sources. There is a lack of knowledge about the estimation of air pollutant emissions and particularly its spatial and temporal distribution in South America, mainly in medium-sized cities with population less than one million inhabitants. This work performed the spatial and temporal disaggregation of the on-road vehicle emission inventory (EI) in the medium-sized Andean city of Manizales, Colombia, with a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km and a temporal resolution of 1 h. A reported top-down methodology, based on the analysis of traffic flow levels and road network distribution, was applied. Results obtained allowed the identification of several hotspots of emission at the downtown zone and the residential and commercial area of Manizales. Downtown exhibited the highest percentage contribution of emissions normalized by its total area, with values equal to 6% and 5% of total CO and PM10 emissions per km2 respectively. These indexes were higher than those obtained in residential-commercial area with values of 2%/km2 for both pollutants. Temporal distribution showed strong relationship with driving patterns at rush hours, as well as an important influence of passenger cars and motorcycles in emissions of CO both at downtown and residential-commercial areas, and the impact of public transport in PM10 emissions in the residential-commercial zone. Considering that detailed information about traffic counts and road network distribution is not always available in medium-sized cities, this work compares other simplified top-down methods for spatially assessing the on-road vehicle EI. Results suggested that simplified methods could underestimate the spatial allocation of downtown emissions, a zone dominated by high traffic of vehicles. The comparison between simplified methods based on total traffic counts and road density distribution suggested that the use of total traffic counts in a simplified form could enhance higher uncertainties in the spatial disaggregation of emissions. Results obtained could add new information that help to improve the air pollution management system in the city and contribute to local public policy decisions. Additionally, this work provides appropriate resolution emission fluxes for ongoing research in atmospheric modeling in the city, with the aim to improve the understanding of transport, transformation and impacts of pollutant emissions in urban air quality.

TEMPORAL SELF-ORGANIZATION IN GALAXY FORMATION

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cen, Renyue, E-mail: cen@astro.princeton.edu

We report on the discovery of a relation between the number of star formation (SF) peaks per unit time, ν{sub peak}, and the size of the temporal smoothing window function, Δt, used to define the peaks: ν{sub peak}∝Δt {sup 1} {sup –} {sup φ} (φ ∼ 1.618). This relation holds over the range of Δt = 10-1000 Myr that can be reliably computed here, using a large sample of galaxies obtained from a state-of-the-art cosmological hydrodynamic simulation. This means that the temporal distribution of SF peaks in galaxies as a population is fractal with a Hausdorff fractal dimension equal to φmore » – 1. This finding reveals, for the first time, that the superficially chaotic process of galaxy formation is underlined by temporal self-organization up to at least one gigayear. It is tempting to suggest that, given the known existence of spatial fractals (such as the power-law two-point function of galaxies), there is a joint spatio-temporal self-organization in galaxy formation. From an observational perspective, it will be urgent to devise diagnostics to probe the SF histories of galaxies with good temporal resolution to facilitate a test of this prediction. If confirmed, it would provide unambiguous evidence for a new picture of galaxy formation that is interaction driven, cooperative, and coherent in and between time and space. Unravelling its origin may hold the key to understanding galaxy formation.« less

External ear canal exostosis and otitis media in temporal bones of prehistoric and historic chilean populations. A paleopathological and paleoepidemiological study.

PubMed

Castro, Mario; Goycoolea, Marcos; Silva-Pinto, Verónica

2017-04-01

External ear canal exostosis is more prevalent in northern coastal groups than in the highlands, suggesting that ocean activities facilitate the appearance of exostosis. However, southern coastal groups exposed to colder ocean water have a lesser incidence of exostosis, possibly due to less duration of exposure. There was a high incidence of otitis media in all groups of native population in Chile. One coastal group had a higher incidence, presumably due to racial factors. This is a paleopathological and paleoepidemiological study in temporal bones which assesses external ear canal exostosis and otitis media in prehistoric and historic native populations in Chile. A total of 460 temporal bones were evaluated for exostosis (ex) and 542 temporal bones were evaluated for otitis media (om). The study involved four groups: (1) Prehistoric Coastal (400-1000 AD) populations in Northern Chile (Pisagua-Tiwanaku) (22 temporal bones ex; 28 om); (2) Prehistoric Highland (400-1000 AD) populations in Northern Chile (292 temporal bones ex; 334 om); (3) Pisagua-Regional Developments (coastal) in Northern Chile (1000-1450 AD) (66 temporal bones ex; 82 om); and (4) Historic (1500-1800 AD) coastal populations in Southern Chile (80 temporal bones ex: 18 Chonos, 62 Fuegians. 98 om: 22 Chonos, 76 Fuegians). Skulls were evaluated visually and with an operating microscope. In addition, the otitis media group was evaluated with Temporal bone radiology - -lateral XRays-Schuller view - to assess pneumatization as evidence of previous middle ear disease. Prehistoric northern coastal groups had an incidence of exostosis of 15.91%, the northern highlands group 1.37%, and the southern coastal group 1.25%. There were changes suggestive of otitis media in: Pisagua/Tiwanaku 53.57%; Pisagua/Regional Developments 70.73%; Northern Highlands population 47.90%; Chonos 63.64%; and Fuegian tribes 64.47%.

Role of evolutionary and ecological factors in the reproductive success and the spatial genetic structure of the temperate gorgonian Paramuricea clavata

PubMed Central

Mokhtar-Jamaï, Kenza; Coma, Rafel; Wang, Jinliang; Zuberer, Frederic; Féral, Jean-Pierre; Aurelle, Didier

2013-01-01

Dispersal and mating features strongly influence the evolutionary dynamics and the spatial genetic structure (SGS) of marine populations. For the first time in a marine invertebrate, we examined individual reproductive success, by conducting larval paternity assignments after a natural spawning event, combined with a small-scale SGS analysis within a population of the gorgonian Paramuricea clavata. Thirty four percent of the larvae were sired by male colonies surrounding the brooding female colonies, revealing that the bulk of the mating was accomplished by males from outside the studied area. Male success increased with male height and decreased with increasing male to female distance. The parentage analyses, with a strong level of self-recruitment (25%), unveiled the occurrence of a complex family structure at a small spatial scale, consistent with the limited larval dispersal of this species. However, no evidence of small scale SGS was revealed despite this family structure. Furthermore, temporal genetic structure was not observed, which appears to be related to the rather large effective population size. The low level of inbreeding found suggests a pattern of random mating in this species, which disagrees with expectations that limited larval dispersal should lead to biparental inbreeding. Surface brooding and investment in sexual reproduction in P. clavata contribute to multiple paternity (on average 6.4 fathers were assigned per brood), which enhance genetic diversity of the brood. Several factors may have contributed to the lack of biparental inbreeding in our study such as (i) the lack of sperm limitation at a small scale, (ii) multiple paternity, and (iii) the large effective population size. Thus, our results indicate that limited larval dispersal and complex family structure do not necessarily lead to biparental inbreeding and SGS. In the framework of conservation purposes, our results suggested that colony size, proximity among colonies and the population size should be taken into consideration for restoration projects. PMID:23789084

Phytoplankton size-based dynamics in the Aegean Sea (Eastern Mediterranean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ignatiades, L.; Psarra, S.; Zervakis, V.; Pagou, K.; Souvermezoglou, E.; Assimakopoulou, G.; Gotsis-Skretas, O.

2002-07-01

This study represents one component of the large MTP-II-MATER (MAST-III) multidisiplinary project in the Mediterranean supported by EU. Data were collected during three cruises performed in Spring and Autumn 1997 and Spring 1998 from six stations of the North and five stations of the South Aegean Sea. The work assessed the spatial, vertical and temporal variations of size fractionated chlorophyll α, primary production (in situ), photosynthetic parameters (in situ) and the taxonomic composition of phytoplankton. The population structure and dynamics were greatly influenced by the different hydrographic conditions prevailing in the Northern and Southern Aegean Sea due to the influence of Black Sea and Levantine Sea waters, respectively. The picoplankton fraction (0.2-1.2 μm) predominated and accounted for the 56% to 49% of total chl α and the 51% to 41% of total primary production in the N. and S. Aegean Sea, respectively. Throughout the sampling area, the levels of nano+microplankton (>3.0 μm) were next in abundance proportions of total chl α (21-31%) and primary production (20-33%) and the levels of the ultraplankton (1.2-3.0 μm) were the lowest, contributing the 18-22% of total chl α and the 20-23% of total primary production. There was a highly significant ( P≤0.005-0.01) spatial, vertical and temporal influence on the biomass and productivity of all size classes in the N. Aegean and of most of them in S. Aegean. Light utilization efficiency ( ɛ%) and quantum yield ( ϕmax) exhibited a temporal trend having higher values in Spring than in Autumn as well as a trend affected by cell size, being higher for picoplankton in relation to ultraplankton and nano+microplankton. Assimilation ratios ( PB) increased with cell size. Daily primary production in the N. Aegean (81.36 mg C m -2 day -1) was higher than that in the S. Aegean (38.88 mg C m -2 day -1) but both are characterized as the most oligotrophic areas of the eastern Mediterranean.

A framework for estimating the determinants of spatial and temporal variation in vital rates and inferring the occurrence of unobserved extreme events

PubMed Central

Jesenšek, Dušan; Crivelli, Alain J.

2018-01-01

We develop a general framework that combines long-term tag–recapture data and powerful statistical and modelling techniques to investigate how population, environmental and climate factors determine variation in vital rates and population dynamics in an animal species, using as a case study the population of brown trout living in Upper Volaja (Western Slovenia). This population has been monitored since 2004. Upper Volaja is a sink, receiving individuals from a source population living above a waterfall. We estimate the numerical contribution of the source population on the sink population and test the effects of temperature, population density and extreme events on variation in vital rates among 2647 individually tagged brown trout. We found that individuals dispersing downstream from the source population help maintain high population densities in the sink population despite poor recruitment. The best model of survival for individuals older than juveniles includes additive effects of birth cohort and sampling occasion. Fast growth of older cohorts and higher population densities in 2004–2005 suggest very low population densities in the late 1990s, which we hypothesize were caused by a flash flood that strongly reduced population size and created the habitat conditions for faster individual growth and transient higher population densities after the extreme event. PMID:29657746

A framework for estimating the determinants of spatial and temporal variation in vital rates and inferring the occurrence of unobserved extreme events.

PubMed

Vincenzi, Simone; Jesenšek, Dušan; Crivelli, Alain J

2018-03-01

We develop a general framework that combines long-term tag-recapture data and powerful statistical and modelling techniques to investigate how population, environmental and climate factors determine variation in vital rates and population dynamics in an animal species, using as a case study the population of brown trout living in Upper Volaja (Western Slovenia). This population has been monitored since 2004. Upper Volaja is a sink, receiving individuals from a source population living above a waterfall. We estimate the numerical contribution of the source population on the sink population and test the effects of temperature, population density and extreme events on variation in vital rates among 2647 individually tagged brown trout. We found that individuals dispersing downstream from the source population help maintain high population densities in the sink population despite poor recruitment. The best model of survival for individuals older than juveniles includes additive effects of birth cohort and sampling occasion. Fast growth of older cohorts and higher population densities in 2004-2005 suggest very low population densities in the late 1990s, which we hypothesize were caused by a flash flood that strongly reduced population size and created the habitat conditions for faster individual growth and transient higher population densities after the extreme event.

Trophodynamics of Protomyctophum (Myctophidae) in the Scotia Sea (Southern Ocean).

PubMed

Saunders, R A; Collins, M A; Ward, P; Stowasser, G; Shreeve, R; Tarling, G A

2015-10-01

This study investigated spatial and temporal patterns in distribution, population structure and diet of Bolin's lanternfish Protomyctophum bolini, Tenison's lanternfish Protomyctophum tenisoni and gaptooth lanternfish Protomyctophum choriodon in the Scotia Sea using data collected by midwater trawl during spring, summer and autumn. Protomyctophum bolini was the most abundant species of the genus encountered throughout the Scotia Sea with the greatest concentrations occurring around the Antarctic Polar Front (APF). This species had a life cycle of 2+ years, but spatial differences in population structure were apparent as the I-group was absent from all regions south of the APF, suggesting that the species does not recruit in the Scotia Sea. Protomyctophum tenisoni occurred mostly in waters characteristic of the APF and was absent from the southern Scotia Sea. It had a limited size range, but there was clear size-related sexual dimorphism with males significantly larger than females. The species had a life cycle of c. 2 years, but the I-group (c. 1 year old, 1 November to 31 October the next year) occurred only in regions close to the APF suggesting that recruitment is restricted to these waters. A seasonal southward migration for P. choriodon is likely as the species occurred mostly to the south-west of South Georgia in summer, but extended to the sea-ice sectors in autumn. Protomyctophum choriodon had a life cycle of 4+ years in the Scotia Sea and the population was dominated by age classes >3 years old. Larval stages were absent during the surveys for all species. Diurnal variations in vertical distribution were apparent for all three species. Interspecific variations in diet were evident, but all species were primarily copepod feeders, with Metridia spp., Rhincalanus gigas and Calanus simillimus generally dominating their diet. Small euphausiids, principally Thysanoessa spp., were also an important component of their diets, particularly for P. choriodon which had the largest body size. The spatial and temporal variations in diet for both P. bolini and P. tenisoni were broadly consistent with underlying abundance patterns within the mesozooplankton community. © 2015 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

On the Number of Neurons and Time Scale of Integration Underlying the Formation of Percepts in the Brain

PubMed Central

Wohrer, Adrien; Machens, Christian K.

2015-01-01

All of our perceptual experiences arise from the activity of neural populations. Here we study the formation of such percepts under the assumption that they emerge from a linear readout, i.e., a weighted sum of the neurons’ firing rates. We show that this assumption constrains the trial-to-trial covariance structure of neural activities and animal behavior. The predicted covariance structure depends on the readout parameters, and in particular on the temporal integration window w and typical number of neurons K used in the formation of the percept. Using these predictions, we show how to infer the readout parameters from joint measurements of a subject’s behavior and neural activities. We consider three such scenarios: (1) recordings from the complete neural population, (2) recordings of neuronal sub-ensembles whose size exceeds K, and (3) recordings of neuronal sub-ensembles that are smaller than K. Using theoretical arguments and artificially generated data, we show that the first two scenarios allow us to recover the typical spatial and temporal scales of the readout. In the third scenario, we show that the readout parameters can only be recovered by making additional assumptions about the structure of the full population activity. Our work provides the first thorough interpretation of (feed-forward) percept formation from a population of sensory neurons. We discuss applications to experimental recordings in classic sensory decision-making tasks, which will hopefully provide new insights into the nature of perceptual integration. PMID:25793393

The U.S. Radiologist Workforce: An Analysis of Temporal and Geographic Variation by Using Large National Datasets.

PubMed

Rosenkrantz, Andrew B; Hughes, Danny R; Duszak, Richard

2016-04-01

To determine recent trends related to temporal as well as national and statewide geographic variation in the U.S. radiologist and radiology resident workforce. This retrospective HIPAA-compliant study was exempted from the internal review board. Federal Area Health Resources Files and Medicare 5% research identifiable files were used to compute parameters related to the radiologist workforce. Geographic variation and annual temporal trends were analyzed. Pearson and Spearman correlations were assessed. Nationally, the number of radiology trainees increased 84.2% from a nadir in 1997 (3080 trainees) to 2011 (5674 trainees) and showed high state-to-state variation (range, 0-678 trainees in 2011). However, total radiologists nationally increased 39.2% from 1995 (27 906 radiologists) to 2011 (38 875 radiologists), and radiologists per 100 000 population nationally increased by 7.5% from 1995 (10.62%) to 2011 (11.42%), while showing high state-to-state variation (highest-to-lowest state ratio of 4.3). Radiologists' share of the overall physician workforce declined nationally by 8.8% from 1995 (4.0%) to 2011 (3.7%), with moderate state-to-state variation (highest-to-lowest state ratio of 1.7). Radiology trainee numbers exhibited weak-to-moderate positive state-by-state correlation with radiologists per 100 000 population (r = 0.292-0.532), but moderate-to-strong inverse correlation with the percentage of radiologists in rural practice (r = -0.464 to -0.635). Although the number of radiology trainees dramatically increased, radiologists per 100 000 population increased only slightly, and radiologists' share of the overall physician workforce declined. State-to-state variations in radiologist and radiology resident workforces are high, which suggests a potential role for geographic redistribution rather than changes in the overall workforce size.

Intergenerational determinants of offspring size at birth: a life course and graphical analysis using the Aberdeen Children of the 1950s Study (ACONF).

PubMed

Morton, Susan M B; De Stavola, Bianca L; Leon, David A

2014-06-01

Size at birth has taken on renewed significance due to its now well-established association with many health and health-related outcomes in both the immediate perinatal period and across the entire life course. Optimizing fetal growth to improve both neonatal survival and population health is the focus of much research and policy development, although most efforts have concentrated on either the period of pregnancy itself or the period immediately preceding it. Intergenerational data linked to the Aberdeen Children of the 1950s (ACONF) study were used to examine the influence of grandparental and parental life course biological and social variables on the distribution of offspring size at birth. Guided stepwise multivariable methods and a graphical approach were used to assess the relative importance of these temporally ordered and highly correlated life course measures. Both distal and proximal grandparental and parental life course biological and social factors predicted offspring size at birth. Inequalities in size at birth, according to adult maternal socioeconomic indicators, were found to be largely generated by the continuity of the social environment across generations, and the inequalities in maternal early life growth were predicted by the adult grandparental social environment during the mother's early life. Mother's own size at birth predicted her offspring's intrauterine growth, independent of her adult biological and social characteristics. A mother's childhood social environment and her early growth are both important predictors of her offspring's size at birth. Population strategies aimed at optimizing size at birth require broader social and intergenerational considerations, in addition to focusing on the health of mothers in the immediate pregnancy period. © The Author 2014; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.

First observations of tracking clouds using scanning ARM cloud radars

DOE PAGES

Borque, Paloma; Giangrande, Scott; Kollias, Pavlos

2014-12-01

Tracking clouds using scanning cloud radars can help to document the temporal evolution of cloud properties well before large drop formation (‘‘first echo’’). These measurements complement cloud and precipitation tracking using geostationary satellites and weather radars. Here, two-dimensional (2-D) Along-Wind Range Height Indicator (AW-RHI) observations of a population of shallow cumuli (with and without precipitation) from the 35-GHz scanning ARM cloud radar (SACR) at the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site are presented. Observations from the ARM SGP network of scanning precipitation radars are used to provide the larger scale context of the cloud fieldmore » and to highlight the advantages of the SACR to detect the numerous, small, non-precipitating cloud elements. A new Cloud Identification and Tracking Algorithm (CITA) is developed to track cloud elements. In CITA, a cloud element is identified as a region having a contiguous set of pixels exceeding a preset reflectivity and size threshold. The high temporal resolution of the SACR 2-D observations (30 sec) allows for an area superposition criteria algorithm to match cloud elements at consecutive times. Following CITA, the temporal evolution of cloud element properties (number, size, and maximum reflectivity) is presented. The vast majority of the designated elements during this cumulus event were short-lived non-precipitating clouds having an apparent life cycle shorter than 15 minutes. The advantages and disadvantages of cloud tracking using an SACR are discussed.« less

First observations of tracking clouds using scanning ARM cloud radars

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Borque, Paloma; Giangrande, Scott; Kollias, Pavlos

Tracking clouds using scanning cloud radars can help to document the temporal evolution of cloud properties well before large drop formation (‘‘first echo’’). These measurements complement cloud and precipitation tracking using geostationary satellites and weather radars. Here, two-dimensional (2-D) Along-Wind Range Height Indicator (AW-RHI) observations of a population of shallow cumuli (with and without precipitation) from the 35-GHz scanning ARM cloud radar (SACR) at the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) program Southern Great Plains (SGP) site are presented. Observations from the ARM SGP network of scanning precipitation radars are used to provide the larger scale context of the cloud fieldmore » and to highlight the advantages of the SACR to detect the numerous, small, non-precipitating cloud elements. A new Cloud Identification and Tracking Algorithm (CITA) is developed to track cloud elements. In CITA, a cloud element is identified as a region having a contiguous set of pixels exceeding a preset reflectivity and size threshold. The high temporal resolution of the SACR 2-D observations (30 sec) allows for an area superposition criteria algorithm to match cloud elements at consecutive times. Following CITA, the temporal evolution of cloud element properties (number, size, and maximum reflectivity) is presented. The vast majority of the designated elements during this cumulus event were short-lived non-precipitating clouds having an apparent life cycle shorter than 15 minutes. The advantages and disadvantages of cloud tracking using an SACR are discussed.« less

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

PubMed

Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-10-01

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

Population responses in primary auditory cortex simultaneously represent the temporal envelope and periodicity features in natural speech.

PubMed

Abrams, Daniel A; Nicol, Trent; White-Schwoch, Travis; Zecker, Steven; Kraus, Nina

2017-05-01

Speech perception relies on a listener's ability to simultaneously resolve multiple temporal features in the speech signal. Little is known regarding neural mechanisms that enable the simultaneous coding of concurrent temporal features in speech. Here we show that two categories of temporal features in speech, the low-frequency speech envelope and periodicity cues, are processed by distinct neural mechanisms within the same population of cortical neurons. We measured population activity in primary auditory cortex of anesthetized guinea pig in response to three variants of a naturally produced sentence. Results show that the envelope of population responses closely tracks the speech envelope, and this cortical activity more closely reflects wider bandwidths of the speech envelope compared to narrow bands. Additionally, neuronal populations represent the fundamental frequency of speech robustly with phase-locked responses. Importantly, these two temporal features of speech are simultaneously observed within neuronal ensembles in auditory cortex in response to clear, conversation, and compressed speech exemplars. Results show that auditory cortical neurons are adept at simultaneously resolving multiple temporal features in extended speech sentences using discrete coding mechanisms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Navigating the currents of seascape genomics: how spatial analyses can augment population genomic studies

PubMed Central

Crandall, Eric D.; Liggins, Libby; Bongaerts, Pim; Treml, Eric A.

2016-01-01

Population genomic approaches are making rapid inroads in the study of non-model organisms, including marine taxa. To date, these marine studies have predominantly focused on rudimentary metrics describing the spatial and environmental context of their study region (e.g., geographical distance, average sea surface temperature, average salinity). We contend that a more nuanced and considered approach to quantifying seascape dynamics and patterns can strengthen population genomic investigations and help identify spatial, temporal, and environmental factors associated with differing selective regimes or demographic histories. Nevertheless, approaches for quantifying marine landscapes are complicated. Characteristic features of the marine environment, including pelagic living in flowing water (experienced by most marine taxa at some point in their life cycle), require a well-designed spatial-temporal sampling strategy and analysis. Many genetic summary statistics used to describe populations may be inappropriate for marine species with large population sizes, large species ranges, stochastic recruitment, and asymmetrical gene flow. Finally, statistical approaches for testing associations between seascapes and population genomic patterns are still maturing with no single approach able to capture all relevant considerations. None of these issues are completely unique to marine systems and therefore similar issues and solutions will be shared for many organisms regardless of habitat. Here, we outline goals and spatial approaches for landscape genomics with an emphasis on marine systems and review the growing empirical literature on seascape genomics. We review established tools and approaches and highlight promising new strategies to overcome select issues including a strategy to spatially optimize sampling. Despite the many challenges, we argue that marine systems may be especially well suited for identifying candidate genomic regions under environmentally mediated selection and that seascape genomic approaches are especially useful for identifying robust locus-by-environment associations. PMID:29491947

Navigating the currents of seascape genomics: how spatial analyses can augment population genomic studies.

PubMed

Riginos, Cynthia; Crandall, Eric D; Liggins, Libby; Bongaerts, Pim; Treml, Eric A

2016-12-01

Population genomic approaches are making rapid inroads in the study of non-model organisms, including marine taxa. To date, these marine studies have predominantly focused on rudimentary metrics describing the spatial and environmental context of their study region (e.g., geographical distance, average sea surface temperature, average salinity). We contend that a more nuanced and considered approach to quantifying seascape dynamics and patterns can strengthen population genomic investigations and help identify spatial, temporal, and environmental factors associated with differing selective regimes or demographic histories. Nevertheless, approaches for quantifying marine landscapes are complicated. Characteristic features of the marine environment, including pelagic living in flowing water (experienced by most marine taxa at some point in their life cycle), require a well-designed spatial-temporal sampling strategy and analysis. Many genetic summary statistics used to describe populations may be inappropriate for marine species with large population sizes, large species ranges, stochastic recruitment, and asymmetrical gene flow. Finally, statistical approaches for testing associations between seascapes and population genomic patterns are still maturing with no single approach able to capture all relevant considerations. None of these issues are completely unique to marine systems and therefore similar issues and solutions will be shared for many organisms regardless of habitat. Here, we outline goals and spatial approaches for landscape genomics with an emphasis on marine systems and review the growing empirical literature on seascape genomics. We review established tools and approaches and highlight promising new strategies to overcome select issues including a strategy to spatially optimize sampling. Despite the many challenges, we argue that marine systems may be especially well suited for identifying candidate genomic regions under environmentally mediated selection and that seascape genomic approaches are especially useful for identifying robust locus-by-environment associations.

Long-term analysis of spatio-temporal patterns in population dynamics and demography of juvenile Pinfish (Lagodon rhomboides)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chacin, D. H.; Switzer, T. S.; Ainsworth, C. H.; Stallings, C. D.

2016-12-01

In estuarine systems, proximity to the ocean has the potential to directly and indirectly drive patterns of fish distribution and population dynamics. To test this hypothesis, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of fisheries-independent data and quantified patterns of density, biomass, and growth rates of juvenile Pinfish (Lagodon rhomboides) across spatial and temporal scales in Tampa Bay, Florida, USA. Spatially, the highest density and biomass were found in the outermost regions (closest to the Gulf of Mexico) of the Bay, and these patterns were generally consistent temporally. Inter-annually, Pinfish density and biomass were the highest during periods coinciding with favorable oceanographic conditions (e.g., anomalously intense and prolonged upwelling) for across-shelf transport of larvae from spawning grounds in the Gulf to Tampa Bay. Intra-annually, density and biomass were the highest during spring and summer likely due to the combined effects of spawning timing (and delivery of new settlers), and high somatic growth fueled by increased secondary and primary productivity. Declines in density and biomass during the late summer through early winter were possibly due to high post-settlement mortality and egress to offshore habitats. Pinfish increased predictably in size across the months of the calendar year, and tended to be larger and grew faster in the innermost regions of the Bay, which were located farthest from the Gulf. Pinfish density was related to the proximity to the Gulf of Mexico, with the outermost regions of the Bay having greater seagrass cover, higher salinity, and being closer to the offshore larval pool where spawning occurs. Thus, this study provided evidence that distance to the ocean was an important driver of biotic and abiotic factors that influenced Pinfish demographic rates across spatial and temporal scales in the largest estuary in Florida.

Temporal variation in size-assortative mating and male mate choice in a spider with amphisexual care

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moura, Rafael R.; Gonzaga, Marcelo O.

2017-04-01

Males should be more selective when they have a high investment in reproduction, especially in species with biparental or paternal care. In this context, male mate choice can promote size-assortative mating (SAM) when (1) large males win intrasexual disputes, (2) large females are more fecund, and (3) males prefer larger females to smaller ones. In the spider Manogea porracea, males exhibit high reproductive investment by building their webs above those of females and exhibiting extended care of offspring in the absence of females. Under these circumstances, we expect the occurrence of SAM and male preference for large females. Herein, we performed observations and experiments in the field to evaluate the hypotheses that (1) M. porracea mates assortatively by size and (2) SAM is influenced by male mate choice. Furthermore, we measured variables that could affect mating patterns, the sex ratios, and densities of both sexes. Pairing in M. porracea was positively size-assortative in 2012, but not in 2013. Large males won most disputes for mates and preferred larger females, which produced more eggs. The inconsistency in detection of SAM was due to population dynamics, namely variations in sex ratio and population density across the breeding season. Furthermore, we found that the significance of male mate choice on sexual selection of body size in M. porracea strongly depends on the competition intensity for mating opportunities. The traditional sexual selection hypothesis of SAM needs to be reviewed and must include measures of competition intensity.

Temporal changes in genetic variation of boll weevil (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) populations, and implications for population assignment in eradication zones

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Genetic differentiation among 10 populations of boll weevil, Anthonomus grandis grandis, sampled in 2009, in Texas and Mexico, was determined using ten microsatellite loci. In addition, temporal changes in genetic composition were examined in the eight populations for which samples were available fr...

Long-term patterns of body mass and stature evolution within the hominin lineage.

PubMed

Will, Manuel; Pablos, Adrián; Stock, Jay T

2017-11-01

Body size is a central determinant of a species' biology and adaptive strategy, but the number of reliable estimates of hominin body mass and stature have been insufficient to determine long-term patterns and subtle interactions in these size components within our lineage. Here, we analyse 254 body mass and 204 stature estimates from a total of 311 hominin specimens dating from 4.4 Ma to the Holocene using multi-level chronological and taxonomic analytical categories. The results demonstrate complex temporal patterns of body size variation with phases of relative stasis intermitted by periods of rapid increases. The observed trajectories could result from punctuated increases at speciation events, but also differential proliferation of large-bodied taxa or the extinction of small-bodied populations. Combined taxonomic and temporal analyses show that in relation to australopithecines, early Homo is characterized by significantly larger average body mass and stature but retains considerable diversity, including small body sizes. Within later Homo , stature and body mass evolution follow different trajectories: average modern stature is maintained from ca 1.6 Ma, while consistently higher body masses are not established until the Middle Pleistocene at ca 0.5-0.4 Ma, likely caused by directional selection related to colonizing higher latitudes. Selection against small-bodied individuals (less than 40 kg; less than 140 cm) after 1.4 Ma is associated with a decrease in relative size variability in later Homo species compared with earlier Homo and australopithecines. The isolated small-bodied individuals of Homo naledi ( ca 0.3 Ma) and Homo floresiensis ( ca 100-60 ka) constitute important exceptions to these general patterns, adding further layers of complexity to the evolution of body size within the genus Homo . At the end of the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, body size in Homo sapiens declines on average, but also extends to lower limits not seen in comparable frequency since early Homo .

Long-term patterns of body mass and stature evolution within the hominin lineage

PubMed Central

Pablos, Adrián; Stock, Jay T.

2017-01-01

Body size is a central determinant of a species' biology and adaptive strategy, but the number of reliable estimates of hominin body mass and stature have been insufficient to determine long-term patterns and subtle interactions in these size components within our lineage. Here, we analyse 254 body mass and 204 stature estimates from a total of 311 hominin specimens dating from 4.4 Ma to the Holocene using multi-level chronological and taxonomic analytical categories. The results demonstrate complex temporal patterns of body size variation with phases of relative stasis intermitted by periods of rapid increases. The observed trajectories could result from punctuated increases at speciation events, but also differential proliferation of large-bodied taxa or the extinction of small-bodied populations. Combined taxonomic and temporal analyses show that in relation to australopithecines, early Homo is characterized by significantly larger average body mass and stature but retains considerable diversity, including small body sizes. Within later Homo, stature and body mass evolution follow different trajectories: average modern stature is maintained from ca 1.6 Ma, while consistently higher body masses are not established until the Middle Pleistocene at ca 0.5–0.4 Ma, likely caused by directional selection related to colonizing higher latitudes. Selection against small-bodied individuals (less than 40 kg; less than 140 cm) after 1.4 Ma is associated with a decrease in relative size variability in later Homo species compared with earlier Homo and australopithecines. The isolated small-bodied individuals of Homo naledi (ca 0.3 Ma) and Homo floresiensis (ca 100–60 ka) constitute important exceptions to these general patterns, adding further layers of complexity to the evolution of body size within the genus Homo. At the end of the Late Pleistocene and Holocene, body size in Homo sapiens declines on average, but also extends to lower limits not seen in comparable frequency since early Homo. PMID:29291118

Identifying spatio-temporal dynamics of Ebola in Sierra Leone using virus genomes

PubMed Central

Proctor, Joshua L.

2017-01-01

Containing the recent West African outbreak of Ebola virus (EBOV) required the deployment of substantial global resources. Despite recent progress in analysing and modelling EBOV epidemiological data, a complete characterization of the spatio-temporal spread of Ebola cases remains a challenge. In this work, we offer a novel perspective on the EBOV epidemic in Sierra Leone that uses individual virus genome sequences to inform population-level, spatial models. Calibrated to phylogenetic linkages of virus genomes, these spatial models provide unique insight into the disease mobility of EBOV in Sierra Leone without the need for human mobility data. Consistent with other investigations, our results show that the spread of EBOV during the beginning and middle portions of the epidemic strongly depended on the size of and distance between populations. Our phylodynamic analysis also revealed a change in model preference towards a spatial model with power-law characteristics in the latter portion of the epidemic, correlated with the timing of major intervention campaigns. More generally, we believe this framework, pairing molecular diagnostics with a dynamic model selection procedure, has the potential to be a powerful forecasting tool along with offering operationally relevant guidance for surveillance and sampling strategies during an epidemic. PMID:29187639

Multi-scale approach to the environmental factors effects on spatio-temporal variability of Chironomus salinarius (Diptera: Chironomidae) in a French coastal lagoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cartier, V.; Claret, C.; Garnier, R.; Fayolle, S.; Franquet, E.

2010-03-01

The complexity of the relationships between environmental factors and organisms can be revealed by sampling designs which consider the contribution to variability of different temporal and spatial scales, compared to total variability. From a management perspective, a multi-scale approach can lead to time-saving. Identifying environmental patterns that help maintain patchy distribution is fundamental in studying coastal lagoons, transition zones between continental and marine waters characterised by great environmental variability on spatial and temporal scales. They often present organic enrichment inducing decreased species richness and increased densities of opportunist species like C hironomus salinarius, a common species that tends to swarm and thus constitutes a nuisance for human populations. This species is dominant in the Bolmon lagoon, a French Mediterranean coastal lagoon under eutrophication. Our objective was to quantify variability due to both spatial and temporal scales and identify the contribution of different environmental factors to this variability. The population of C. salinarius was sampled from June 2007 to June 2008 every two months at 12 sites located in two areas of the Bolmon lagoon, at two different depths, with three sites per area-depth combination. Environmental factors (temperature, dissolved oxygen both in sediment and under water surface, sediment organic matter content and grain size) and microbial activities (i.e. hydrolase activities) were also considered as explanatory factors of chironomid densities and distribution. ANOVA analysis reveals significant spatial differences regarding the distribution of chironomid larvae for the area and the depth scales and their interaction. The spatial effect is also revealed for dissolved oxygen (water), salinity and fine particles (area scale), and for water column depth. All factors but water column depth show a temporal effect. Spearman's correlations highlight the seasonal effect (temperature, dissolved oxygen in sediment and water) as well as the effect of microbial activities on chironomid larvae. Our results show that a multi-scale approach identifies patchy distribution, even when there is relative environmental homogeneity.

Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

PubMed

Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

2017-10-03

Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

Spatial and temporal dynamics of fucoid populations (Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus): a comparison between central and range edge populations.

PubMed

Araújo, Rita M; Serrão, Ester A; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel; Åberg, Per

2014-01-01

Persistence of populations at range edges relies on local population dynamics and fitness, in the case of geographically isolated populations of species with low dispersal potential. Focusing on spatial variations in demography helps to predict the long-term capability for persistence of populations across the geographical range of species' distribution. The demography of two ecological and phylogenetically close macroalgal species with different life history characteristics was investigated by using stochastic, stage-based matrix models. Populations of Ascophyllum nodosum and Fucus serratus were sampled for up to 4 years at central locations in France and at their southern range limits in Portugal. The stochastic population growth rate (λ(s)) of A. nodosum was lower and more variable in central than in southern sites whilst for F. serratus this trend was reversed with λ(s) much lower and more variable in southern than in central populations. Individuals were larger in central than in southern populations for both species, which was reflected in the lower transition probabilities of individuals to larger size classes and higher probability of shrinkage in the southern populations. In both central and southern populations elasticity analysis (proportional sensitivity) of population growth rate showed that fertility elements had a small contribution to λ(s) that was more sensitive to changes in matrix transitions corresponding to survival. The highest elasticities were found for loop transitions in A. nodosum and for growth to larger size classes in F. serratus. Sensitivity analysis showed high selective pressure on individual growth for both species at both locations. The results of this study highlight the deterministic role of species-specific life-history traits in population demography across the geographical range of species. Additionally, this study demonstrates that individuals' life-transitions differ in vulnerability to environmental variability and shows the importance of vegetative compared to reproductive stages for the long-term persistence of populations.

Genetic variation facilitates seedling establishment but not population growth rate of a perennial invader

PubMed Central

Li, Shou-Li; Vasemägi, Anti; Ramula, Satu

2016-01-01

Background and Aims Assessing the demographic consequences of genetic variation is fundamental to invasion biology. However, genetic and demographic approaches are rarely combined to explore the effects of genetic variation on invasive populations in natural environments. This study combined population genetics, demographic data and a greenhouse experiment to investigate the consequences of genetic variation for the population fitness of the perennial, invasive herb Lupinus polyphyllus. Methods Genetic and demographic data were collected from 37 L. polyphyllus populations representing different latitudes in Finland, and genetic variation was characterized based on 13 microsatellite loci. Associations between genetic variation and population size, population density, latitude and habitat were investigated. Genetic variation was then explored in relation to four fitness components (establishment, survival, growth, fecundity) measured at the population level, and the long-term population growth rate (λ). For a subset of populations genetic variation was also examined in relation to the temporal variability of λ. A further assessment was made of the role of natural selection in the observed variation of certain fitness components among populations under greenhouse conditions. Key Results It was found that genetic variation correlated positively with population size, particularly at higher latitudes, and differed among habitat types. Average seedling establishment per population increased with genetic variation in the field, but not under greenhouse conditions. Quantitative genetic divergence (QST) based on seedling establishment in the greenhouse was smaller than allelic genetic divergence (F′ST), indicating that unifying selection has a prominent role in this fitness component. Genetic variation was not associated with average survival, growth or fecundity measured at the population level, λ or its variability. Conclusions The study suggests that although genetic variation may facilitate plant invasions by increasing seedling establishment, it may not necessarily affect the long-term population growth rate. Therefore, established invasions may be able to grow equally well regardless of their genetic diversity. PMID:26420202

Characterizing the Aedes aegypti Population in a Vietnamese Village in Preparation for a Wolbachia-Based Mosquito Control Strategy to Eliminate Dengue

PubMed Central

Jeffery, Jason A. L.; Thi Yen, Nguyen; Nam, Vu Sinh; Nghia, Le Trung; Hoffmann, Ary A.; Kay, Brian H.; Ryan, Peter A.

2009-01-01

Background A life-shortening strain of the obligate intracellular bacteria Wolbachia, called wMelPop, is seen as a promising new tool for the control of Aedes aegypti. However, developing a vector control strategy based on the release of mosquitoes transinfected with wMelPop requires detailed knowledge of the demographics of the target population. Methodology/Principal Findings In Tri Nguyen village (611 households) on Hon Mieu Island in central Vietnam, we conducted nine quantitative entomologic surveys over 14 months to determine if Ae. aegypti populations were spatially and temporally homogenous, and to estimate population size. There was no obvious relationship between mosquito (larval, pupal or adult) abundance and temperature and rainfall, and no area of the village supported consistently high numbers of mosquitoes. In almost all surveys, key premises produced high numbers of Ae. aegypti. However, these premises were not consistent between surveys. For an intervention based on a single release of wMelPop-infected Ae. aegypti, release ratios of infected to uninfected adult mosquitoes of all age classes are estimated to be 1.8–6.7∶1 for gravid females (and similarly aged males) or teneral adults, respectively. We calculated that adult female mosquito abundance in Tri Nguyen village could range from 1.1 to 43.3 individuals of all age classes per house. Thus, an intervention could require the release of 2–78 wMelPop-infected gravid females and similarly aged males per house, or 7–290 infected teneral female and male mosquitoes per house. Conclusions/Significance Given the variability we encountered, this study highlights the importance of multiple entomologic surveys when evaluating the spatial structure of a vector population or estimating population size. If a single release of wMelPop-infected Ae. aegypti were to occur when wild Ae. aegypti abundance was at its maximum, a preintervention control program would be necessary to ensure that there was no net increase in mosquito numbers. However, because of the short-term temporal heterogeneity, the inconsistent spatial structure and the impact of transient key premises that we observed, the feasibility of multiple releases of smaller numbers of mosquitoes also needs to be considered. In either case, fewer wMelPop-infected mosquitoes would then need to be released, which will likely be more acceptable to householders. PMID:19956588

Temporal and geographic patterns in population trends of brown-headed cowbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Schwarz, S.

2000-01-01

The temporal and geographic patterns in the population trends of Brown-headed Cowbirds are summarized from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. During 1966-1992, the survey-wide population declined significantly, a result of declining populations in the Eastern BBS Region, southern Great Plains, and the Pacific coast states. Increasing populations were most evident in the northern Great Plains. Cowbird populations were generally stable or increasing during 1966-1976, but their trends became more negative after 1976. The trends in cowbird populations were generally directly correlated with the trends of both host and nonhost species, suggesting that large-scale factors such as changing weather patterns, land use practices, or habitat availability were responsible for the observed temporal and geographic patterns in the trends of cowbirds and their hosts.

Detection of quasars in the time domain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, Matthew J.; Djorgovski, S. G.; Stern, Daniel J.; Drake, Andrew; Mahabal, Ashish

2017-06-01

The time domain is the emerging forefront of astronomical research with new facilities and instruments providing unprecedented amounts of data on the temporal behavior of astrophysical populations. Dealing with the size and complexity of this requires new techniques and methodologies. Quasars are an ideal work set for developing and applying these: they vary in a detectable but not easily quantifiable manner whose physical origins are poorly understood. In this paper, we will review how quasars are identified by their variability and how these techniques can be improved, what physical insights into their variability can be gained from studying extreme examples of variability, and what approaches can be taken to increase the number of quasars known. These will demonstrate how astroinformatics is essential to discovering and understanding this important population.

Is Markhamia lutea's abundance determined by animal foraging?

PubMed

Chapman, Colin A; Bonnell, Tyler R; Sengupta, Raja; Goldberg, Tony L; Rothman, Jessica M

2013-11-15

Understanding the determinants of tropical forest tree richness and spatial distribution is a central goal of forest ecology; however, the role of herbivorous mammals has received little attention. Here we explore the potential for red colobus monkeys ( Procolobus rufomitratus ) to influence the abundance of Markhamia lutea trees in a tropical forest by feeding extensively on the tree's flowers, such that this tree population is not able to regularly set fruit. Using 14 years of data from Kibale National Park, Uganda, we quantify M. lutea flower and fruit production. Similarly, using 21 years of data, we quantify temporal changes in the abundance of stems in size classes from 1 m tall and above. Our analyses demonstrate that M. lutea is rarely able to produce fruit and that this corresponds to a general decline in its abundance across all size classes. Moreover, using 7 years of feeding records, we demonstrate that red colobus feed on M. lutea , consuming large amounts of leaf and flower buds whenever they were available, suggesting that this behavior limits fruit production. Therefore, we suggest that red colobus are presently important for structuring the distribution and abundance of M. lutea in Kibale. This dynamic raises the intriguing question of how a large M. lutea population was able to originally establish. There is no evidence of a change in red colobus population size; however, if this old-growth forest is in a non-equilibrium state, M. lutea may have become established when red colobus ate a different diet.

Double-observer approach to estimating egg mass abundance of vernal pool breeding amphibians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, E.H.C.; Jung, R.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

2005-01-01

Interest in seasonally flooded pools, and the status of associated amphibian populations, has initiated programs in the northeastern United States to document and monitor these habitats. Counting egg masses is an effective way to determine the population size of pool-breeding amphibians, such as wood frogs (Rana sylvatica) and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum). However, bias is associated with counts if egg masses are missed. Counts unadjusted for the proportion missed (i.e., without adjustment for detection probability) could lead to false assessments of population trends. We used a dependent double-observer method in 2002-2003 to estimate numbers of wood frog and spotted salamander egg masses at seasonal forest pools in 13 National Wildlife Refuges, 1 National Park, 1 National Seashore, and 1 State Park in the northeastern United States. We calculated detection probabilities for egg masses and examined whether detection probabilities varied by species, observers, pools, and in relation to pool characteristics (pool area, pool maximum depth, within-pool vegetation). For the 2 years, model selection indicated that no consistent set of variables explained the variation in data sets from individual Refuges and Parks. Because our results indicated that egg mass detection probabilities vary spatially and temporally, we conclude that it is essential to use estimation procedures, such as double-observer methods with egg mass surveys, to determine population sizes and trends of these species.

Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations.

PubMed

Condon, Robert H; Duarte, Carlos M; Pitt, Kylie A; Robinson, Kelly L; Lucas, Cathy H; Sutherland, Kelly R; Mianzan, Hermes W; Bogeberg, Molly; Purcell, Jennifer E; Decker, Mary Beth; Uye, Shin-ichi; Madin, Laurence P; Brodeur, Richard D; Haddock, Steven H D; Malej, Alenka; Parry, Gregory D; Eriksen, Elena; Quiñones, Javier; Acha, Marcelo; Harvey, Michel; Arthur, James M; Graham, William M

2013-01-15

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face.

An Emerging Allee Effect Is Critical for Tumor Initiation and Persistence

PubMed Central

Böttger, Katrin; Hatzikirou, Haralambos; Voss-Böhme, Anja; Cavalcanti-Adam, Elisabetta Ada; Herrero, Miguel A.; Deutsch, Andreas

2015-01-01

Tumor cells develop different strategies to cope with changing microenvironmental conditions. A prominent example is the adaptive phenotypic switching between cell migration and proliferation. While it has been shown that the migration-proliferation plasticity influences tumor spread, it remains unclear how this particular phenotypic plasticity affects overall tumor growth, in particular initiation and persistence. To address this problem, we formulate and study a mathematical model of spatio-temporal tumor dynamics which incorporates the microenvironmental influence through a local cell density dependence. Our analysis reveals that two dynamic regimes can be distinguished. If cell motility is allowed to increase with local cell density, any tumor cell population will persist in time, irrespective of its initial size. On the contrary, if cell motility is assumed to decrease with respect to local cell density, any tumor population below a certain size threshold will eventually extinguish, a fact usually termed as Allee effect in ecology. These results suggest that strategies aimed at modulating migration are worth to be explored as alternatives to those mainly focused at keeping tumor proliferation under control. PMID:26335202

The role of life histories and trophic interactions in population recovery.

PubMed

Audzijonyte, Asta; Kuparinen, Anna

2016-08-01

Factors affecting population recovery from depletion are at the focus of wildlife management. Particularly, it has been debated how life-history characteristics might affect population recovery ability and productivity. Many exploited fish stocks have shown temporal changes towards earlier maturation and reduced adult body size, potentially owing to evolutionary responses to fishing. Whereas such life-history changes have been widely documented, their potential role on stock's ability to recover from exploitation often remains ignored by traditional fisheries management. We used a marine ecosystem model parameterized for Southeastern Australian ecosystem to explore how changes towards "faster" life histories might affect population per capita growth rate r. We show that for most species changes towards earlier maturation during fishing have a negative effect (3-40% decrease) on r during the recovery phase. Faster juvenile growth and earlier maturation were beneficial early in life, but smaller adult body sizes reduced the lifetime reproductive output and increased adult natural mortality. However, both at intra- and inter-specific level natural mortality and trophic position of the species were as important in determining r as species longevity and age of maturation, suggesting that r cannot be predicted from life-history traits alone. Our study highlights that factors affecting population recovery ability and productivity should be explored in a multi-species context, where both age-specific fecundity and survival schedules are addressed simultaneously. It also suggests that contemporary life-history changes in harvested species are unlikely to increase their resilience and recovery ability. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Reconsideration of r/K Selection Theory Using Stochastic Control Theory and Nonlinear Structured Population Models.

PubMed

Oizumi, Ryo; Kuniya, Toshikazu; Enatsu, Yoichi

2016-01-01

Despite the fact that density effects and individual differences in life history are considered to be important for evolution, these factors lead to several difficulties in understanding the evolution of life history, especially when population sizes reach the carrying capacity. r/K selection theory explains what types of life strategies evolve in the presence of density effects and individual differences. However, the relationship between the life schedules of individuals and population size is still unclear, even if the theory can classify life strategies appropriately. To address this issue, we propose a few equations on adaptive life strategies in r/K selection where density effects are absent or present. The equations detail not only the adaptive life history but also the population dynamics. Furthermore, the equations can incorporate temporal individual differences, which are referred to as internal stochasticity. Our framework reveals that maximizing density effects is an evolutionarily stable strategy related to the carrying capacity. A significant consequence of our analysis is that adaptive strategies in both selections maximize an identical function, providing both population growth rate and carrying capacity. We apply our method to an optimal foraging problem in a semelparous species model and demonstrate that the adaptive strategy yields a lower intrinsic growth rate as well as a lower basic reproductive number than those obtained with other strategies. This study proposes that the diversity of life strategies arises due to the effects of density and internal stochasticity.

Spatial and temporal genetic structure of a river-resident Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) after millennia of isolation

PubMed Central

Sandlund, Odd Terje; Karlsson, Sten; Thorstad, Eva B; Berg, Ole Kristian; Kent, Matthew P; Norum, Ine C J; Hindar, Kjetil

2014-01-01

The river-resident Salmo salar (“småblank”) has been isolated from other Atlantic salmon populations for 9,500 years in upper River Namsen, Norway. This is the only European Atlantic salmon population accomplishing its entire life cycle in a river. Hydropower development during the last six decades has introduced movement barriers and changed more than 50% of the river habitat to lentic conditions. Based on microsatellites and SNPs, genetic variation within småblank was only about 50% of that in the anadromous Atlantic salmon within the same river. The genetic differentiation (FST) between småblank and the anadromous population was 0.24. This is similar to the differentiation between anadromous Atlantic salmon in Europe and North America. Microsatellite analyses identified three genetic subpopulations within småblank, each with an effective population size Ne of a few hundred individuals. There was no evidence of reduced heterozygosity and allelic richness in contemporary samples (2005–2008) compared with historical samples (1955–56 and 1978–79). However, there was a reduction in genetic differentiation between sampling localities over time. SNP data supported the differentiation of småblank into subpopulations and revealed downstream asymmetric gene flow between subpopulations. In spite of this, genetic variation was not higher in the lower than in the upper areas. The meta-population structure of småblank probably maintains genetic variation better than one panmictic population would do, as long as gene flow among subpopulations is maintained. Småblank is a unique endemic island population of Atlantic salmon. It is in a precarious situation due to a variety of anthropogenic impacts on its restricted habitat area. Thus, maintaining population size and avoiding further habitat fragmentation are important. PMID:24967074

An improved rotated staggered-grid finite-difference method with fourth-order temporal accuracy for elastic-wave modeling in anisotropic media

DOE PAGES

Gao, Kai; Huang, Lianjie

2017-08-31

The rotated staggered-grid (RSG) finite-difference method is a powerful tool for elastic-wave modeling in 2D anisotropic media where the symmetry axes of anisotropy are not aligned with the coordinate axes. We develop an improved RSG scheme with fourth-order temporal accuracy to reduce the numerical dispersion associated with prolonged wave propagation or a large temporal step size. The high-order temporal accuracy is achieved by including high-order temporal derivatives, which can be converted to high-order spatial derivatives to reduce computational cost. Dispersion analysis and numerical tests show that our method exhibits very low temporal dispersion even with a large temporal step sizemore » for elastic-wave modeling in complex anisotropic media. Using the same temporal step size, our method is more accurate than the conventional RSG scheme. In conclusion, our improved RSG scheme is therefore suitable for prolonged modeling of elastic-wave propagation in 2D anisotropic media.« less

An improved rotated staggered-grid finite-difference method with fourth-order temporal accuracy for elastic-wave modeling in anisotropic media

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Kai; Huang, Lianjie

The rotated staggered-grid (RSG) finite-difference method is a powerful tool for elastic-wave modeling in 2D anisotropic media where the symmetry axes of anisotropy are not aligned with the coordinate axes. We develop an improved RSG scheme with fourth-order temporal accuracy to reduce the numerical dispersion associated with prolonged wave propagation or a large temporal step size. The high-order temporal accuracy is achieved by including high-order temporal derivatives, which can be converted to high-order spatial derivatives to reduce computational cost. Dispersion analysis and numerical tests show that our method exhibits very low temporal dispersion even with a large temporal step sizemore » for elastic-wave modeling in complex anisotropic media. Using the same temporal step size, our method is more accurate than the conventional RSG scheme. In conclusion, our improved RSG scheme is therefore suitable for prolonged modeling of elastic-wave propagation in 2D anisotropic media.« less

Estimating Traveler Populations at Airport and Cruise Terminals for Population Distribution and Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jochem, Warren C; Sims, Kelly M; Bright, Eddie A

In recent years, uses of high-resolution population distribution databases are increasing steadily for environmental, socioeconomic, public health, and disaster-related research and operations. With the development of daytime population distribution, temporal resolution of such databases has been improved. However, the lack of incorporation of transitional population, namely business and leisure travelers, leaves a significant population unaccounted for within the critical infrastructure networks, such as at transportation hubs. This paper presents two general methodologies for estimating passenger populations in airport and cruise port terminals at a high temporal resolution which can be incorporated into existing population distribution models. The methodologies are geographicallymore » scalable and are based on, and demonstrate how, two different transportation hubs with disparate temporal population dynamics can be modeled utilizing publicly available databases including novel data sources of flight activity from the Internet which are updated in near-real time. The airport population estimation model shows great potential for rapid implementation for a large collection of airports on a national scale, and the results suggest reasonable accuracy in the estimated passenger traffic. By incorporating population dynamics at high temporal resolutions into population distribution models, we hope to improve the estimates of populations exposed to or at risk to disasters, thereby improving emergency planning and response, and leading to more informed policy decisions.« less

Population trends for North American winter birds based on hierarchical models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Soykan, Candan U.; Sauer, John; Schuetz, Justin G.; LeBaron, Geoffrey S.; Dale, Kathy; Langham, Gary M.

2016-01-01

Managing widespread and persistent threats to birds requires knowledge of population dynamics at large spatial and temporal scales. For over 100 yrs, the Audubon Christmas Bird Count (CBC) has enlisted volunteers in bird monitoring efforts that span the Americas, especially southern Canada and the United States. We employed a Bayesian hierarchical model to control for variation in survey effort among CBC circles and, using CBC data from 1966 to 2013, generated early-winter population trend estimates for 551 species of birds. Selecting a subset of species that do not frequent bird feeders and have ≥25% range overlap with the distribution of CBC circles (228 species) we further estimated aggregate (i.e., across species) trends for the entire study region and at the level of states/provinces, Bird Conservation Regions, and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives. Moreover, we examined the relationship between ten biological traits—range size, population size, migratory strategy, habitat affiliation, body size, diet, number of eggs per clutch, age at sexual maturity, lifespan, and tolerance of urban/suburban settings—and CBC trend estimates. Our results indicate that 68% of the 551 species had increasing trends within the study area over the interval 1966–2013. When trends were examined across the subset of 228 species, the median population trend for the group was 0.9% per year at the continental level. At the regional level, aggregate trends were positive in all but a few areas. Negative population trends were evident in lower latitudes, whereas the largest increases were at higher latitudes, a pattern consistent with range shifts due to climate change. Nine of 10 biological traits were significantly associated with median population trend; however, none of the traits explained >34% of the deviance in the data, reflecting the indirect relationships between population trend estimates and species traits. Trend estimates based on the CBC are broadly congruent with estimates based on the North American Breeding Bird Survey, another large-scale monitoring program. Both of these efforts, conducted by citizen scientists, will be required going forward to ensure robust inference about population dynamics in the face of climate and land cover changes.

Building the Foundation for International Conservation Planning for Breeding Ducks across the U.S. and Canadian Border

PubMed Central

Doherty, Kevin E.; Evans, Jeffrey S.; Walker, Johann; Devries, James H.; Howerter, David W.

2015-01-01

We used publically available data on duck breeding distribution and recently compiled geospatial data on upland habitat and environmental conditions to develop a spatially explicit model of breeding duck populations across the entire Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Our spatial population models were able to identify key areas for duck conservation across the PPR and predict between 62.1 – 79.1% (68.4% avg.) of the variation in duck counts by year from 2002 – 2010. The median difference in observed vs. predicted duck counts at a transect segment level was 4.6 ducks. Our models are the first seamless spatially explicit models of waterfowl abundance across the entire PPR and represent an initial step toward joint conservation planning between Prairie Pothole and Prairie Habitat Joint Ventures. Our work demonstrates that when spatial and temporal variation for highly mobile birds is incorporated into conservation planning it will likely increase the habitat area required to support defined population goals. A major goal of the current North American Waterfowl Management Plan and subsequent action plan is the linking of harvest and habitat management. We contend incorporation of spatial aspects will increase the likelihood of coherent joint harvest and habitat management decisions. Our results show at a minimum, it is possible to produce spatially explicit waterfowl abundance models that when summed across survey strata will produce similar strata level population estimates as the design-based Waterfowl Breeding Pair and Habitat Survey (r2 = 0.977). This is important because these design-based population estimates are currently used to set duck harvest regulations and to set duck population and habitat goals for the North American Waterfowl Management Plan. We hope this effort generates discussion on the important linkages between spatial and temporal variation in population size, and distribution relative to habitat quantity and quality when linking habitat and population goals across this important region. PMID:25714747

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamura, Kohei; Masuda, Naoki

2017-08-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500 m) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km.

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics.

PubMed

Tamura, Kohei; Masuda, Naoki

2017-08-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500  m ) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km.

Effects of the distant population density on spatial patterns of demographic dynamics

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of population changes within and across countries have various implications. Different geographical, demographic and econo-societal factors seem to contribute to migratory decisions made by individual inhabitants. Focusing on internal (i.e. domestic) migration, we ask whether individuals may take into account the information on the population density in distant locations to make migratory decisions. We analyse population census data in Japan recorded with a high spatial resolution (i.e. cells of size 500×500 m) for the entirety of the country, and simulate demographic dynamics induced by the gravity model and its variants. We show that, in the census data, the population growth rate in a cell is positively correlated with the population density in nearby cells up to a distance of 20 km as well as that of the focal cell. The ordinary gravity model does not capture this empirical observation. We then show that the empirical observation is better accounted for by extensions of the gravity model such that individuals are assumed to perceive the attractiveness, approximated by the population density, of the source or destination cell of migration as the spatial average over a circle of radius ≈1 km. PMID:28878987

No population genetic structure in a widespread aquatic songbird from the Neotropics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cadena, Carlos Daniel; Gutierrez-Pinto, Natalia; Davila, Nicolas; Chesser, R. Terry

2011-01-01

Neotropical lowland organisms often show marked population genetic structure, suggesting restricted migration among populations. However, most phylogeographic studies have focused on species inhabiting humid forest interior. Little attention has been devoted to the study of species with ecologies conducive to dispersal, such as those of more open and variable environments associated with watercourses. Using mtDNA sequences, we examined patterns of genetic variation in a widely distributed Neotropical songbird of aquatic environments, the Yellow-hooded Blackbird (Icteridae, Chrysomus icterocephalus). In contrast to many forest species, Yellow-hooded Blackbirds showed no detectable genetic structure across their range, which includes lowland populations on both sides of the Andes, much of northeastern South America, Amazonia, as well as a phenotypically distinct highland population in Colombia. A coalescent-based analysis of the species indicated that its effective population size has increased considerably, suggesting a range expansion. Our results support the hypothesis that species occurring in open habitats and tracking temporally dynamic environments should show increased dispersal propensities (hence gene flow) relative to species from closed and more stable environments. The phenotypic and behavioral variation among populations of our study species appears to have arisen recently and perhaps in the face of gene flow.

Influences on Bythotrephes longimanus life-history characteristics in the Great Lakes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pothoven, Steven A.; Vanderploeg, Henry A.; Warner, David M.; Schaeffer, Jeffrey S.; Ludsin, Stuart A.; Claramunt, Randall M.; Nalepa, Thomas F.

2012-01-01

We compared Bythotrephes population demographics and dynamics to predator (planktivorous fish) and prey (small-bodied crustacean zooplankton) densities at a site sampled through the growing season in Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Erie. Although seasonal average densities of Bythotrephes were similar across lakes (222/m2 Erie, 247/m2 Huron, 162/m2 Michigan), temporal trends in abundance differed among lakes. In central Lake Erie where Bythotrephes' prey assemblage was dominated by small individuals (60%), where planktivorous fish densities were high (14,317/ha), and where a shallow water column limited availability of a deepwater refuge, the Bythotrephes population was characterized by a small mean body size, large broods with small neonates, allocation of length increases mainly to the spine rather than to the body, and a late summer population decline. By contrast, in Lake Michigan where Bythotrephes' prey assemblage was dominated by large individuals (72%) and planktivorous fish densities were lower (5052/ha), the Bythotrephes population was characterized by a large mean body size (i.e., 37–55% higher than in Erie), small broods with large neonates, nearly all growth in body length occurring between instars 1 and 2, and population persistence into fall. Life-history characteristics in Lake Huron tended to be intermediate to those found in Lakes Michigan and Erie, reflecting lower overall prey and predator densities (1224/ha) relative to the other lakes. Because plasticity in life history can affect interactions with other species, our findings point to the need to understand life-history variation among Great Lakes populations to improve our ability to model the dynamics of these ecosystems.

What makes a species common? No evidence of density-dependent recruitment or mortality of the sea urchin Diadema antillarum after the 1983-1984 mass mortality.

PubMed

Levitan, Don R; Edmunds, Peter J; Levitan, Keeha E

2014-05-01

A potential consequence of individuals compensating for density-dependent processes is that rare or infrequent events can produce profound and long-term shifts in species abundance. In 1983-1984 a mass mortality event reduced the numbers of the abundant sea urchin Diadema antillarum by 95-99% throughout the Caribbean and western Atlantic. Following this event, the abundance of macroalgae increased and the few surviving D. antillarum responded by increasing in body size and fecundity. These initial observations suggested that populations of D. antillarum could recover rapidly following release from food limitation. In contrast, published studies of field manipulations indicate that this species had traits making it resistant to density-dependent effects on offspring production and adult mortality; this evidence raises the possibility that density-independent processes might keep populations at a diminished level. Decadal-scale (1983-2011) monitoring of recruitment, mortality, population density and size structure of D. antillarum from St John, US Virgin Islands, indicates that population density has remained relatively stable and more than an order of magnitude lower than that before the mortality event of 1983-1984. We detected no evidence of density-dependent mortality or recruitment since this mortality event. In this location, model estimates of equilibrium population density, assuming density-independent processes and based on parameters generated over the first decade following the mortality event, accurately predict the low population density 20 years later (2011). We find no evidence to support the notion that this historically dominant species will rebound from this temporally brief, but spatially widespread, perturbation.

Impacts of Insect Herbivores on Plant Populations.

PubMed

Myers, Judith H; Sarfraz, Rana M

2017-01-31

Apparent feeding damage by insects on plants is often slight. Thus, the influences of insect herbivores on plant populations are likely minor. The role of insects on host-plant populations can be elucidated via several methods: stage-structured life tables of plant populations manipulated by herbivore exclusion and seed-addition experiments, tests of the enemy release hypothesis, studies of the effects of accidentally and intentionally introduced insect herbivores, and observations of the impacts of insect species that show outbreak population dynamics. These approaches demonstrate that some, but not all, insect herbivores influence plant population densities. At times, insect-feeding damage kills plants, but more often, it reduces plant size, growth, and seed production. Plant populations for which seed germination is site limited will not respond at the population level to reduced seed production. Insect herbivores can influence rare plant species and need to be considered in conservation programs. Alterations due to climate change in the distributions of insect herbivores indicate the possibility of new influences on host plants. Long-term studies are required to show if density-related insect behavior stabilizes plant populations or if environmental variation drives most temporal fluctuations in plant densities. Finally, insects can influence plant populations and communities through changing the diversity of nonhost species, modifying nutrient fluxes, and rejuvenating over mature forests.

Aging and Vision

PubMed Central

Owsley, Cynthia

2010-01-01

Given the increasing size of the older adult population in many countries, there is a pressing need to identify the nature of aging-related vision impairments, their underlying mechanisms, and how they impact older adults’ performance of everyday visual tasks. The results of this research can then be used to develop and evaluate interventions to slow or reverse aging-related declines in vision, thereby improving quality of life. Here we summarize salient developments in research on aging and vision over the past 25 years, focusing on spatial contrast sensitivity, vision under low luminance, temporal sensitivity and motion perception, and visual processing speed. PMID:20974168

Joint  effects of habitat configuration and temporal stochasticity on population dynamics

Treesearch

Jennifer M. Fraterrigo; Scott M. Pearson; Monica G. Turner

2009-01-01

Habitat configuration and temporal stochasticity in the environment are recognized as important drivers of population structure, yet few studies have examined the combined influence of these factors....

Habitat complexity and fish size affect the detection of Indo-Pacific lionfish on invaded coral reefs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Green, S. J.; Tamburello, N.; Miller, S. E.; Akins, J. L.; Côté, I. M.

2013-06-01

A standard approach to improving the accuracy of reef fish population estimates derived from underwater visual censuses (UVCs) is the application of species-specific correction factors, which assumes that a species' detectability is constant under all conditions. To test this assumption, we quantified detection rates for invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish ( Pterois volitans and P. miles), which are now a primary threat to coral reef conservation throughout the Caribbean. Estimates of lionfish population density and distribution, which are essential for managing the invasion, are currently obtained through standard UVCs. Using two conventional UVC methods, the belt transect and stationary visual census (SVC), we assessed how lionfish detection rates vary with lionfish body size and habitat complexity (measured as rugosity) on invaded continuous and patch reefs off Cape Eleuthera, the Bahamas. Belt transect and SVC surveys performed equally poorly, with both methods failing to detect the presence of lionfish in >50 % of surveys where thorough, lionfish-focussed searches yielded one or more individuals. Conventional methods underestimated lionfish biomass by ~200 %. Crucially, detection rate varied significantly with both lionfish size and reef rugosity, indicating that the application of a single correction factor across habitats and stages of invasion is unlikely to accurately characterize local populations. Applying variable correction factors that account for site-specific lionfish size and rugosity to conventional survey data increased estimates of lionfish biomass, but these remained significantly lower than actual biomass. To increase the accuracy and reliability of estimates of lionfish density and distribution, monitoring programs should use detailed area searches rather than standard visual survey methods. Our study highlights the importance of accounting for sources of spatial and temporal variation in detection to increase the accuracy of survey data from coral reef systems.

Temporal Trends in Vertebral Size and Shape from Medieval to Modern-Day

PubMed Central

Junno, Juho-Antti; Niskanen, Markku; Nieminen, Miika T.; Maijanen, Heli; Niinimäki, Jaakko; Bloigu, Risto; Tuukkanen, Juha

2009-01-01

Human lumbar vertebrae support the weight of the upper body. Loads lifted and carried by the upper extremities cause significant loading stress to the vertebral bodies. It is well established that trauma-induced vertebral fractures are common especially among elderly people. The aim of this study was to investigate the morphological factors that could have affected the prevalence of trauma-related vertebral fractures from medieval times to the present day. To determine if morphological differences existed in the size and shape of the vertebral body between medieval times and the present day, the vertebral body size and shape was measured from the 4th lumbar vertebra using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and standard osteometric calipers. The modern samples consisted of modern Finns and the medieval samples were from archaeological collections in Sweden and Britain. The results show that the shape and size of the 4th lumbar vertebra has changed significantly from medieval times in a way that markedly affects the biomechanical characteristics of the lumbar vertebral column. These changes may have influenced the incidence of trauma- induced spinal fractures in modern populations. PMID:19279681

Environmental drivers defining linkages among life-history traits: mechanistic insights from a semiterrestrial amphipod subjected to macroscale gradients.

PubMed

Gómez, Julio; Barboza, Francisco R; Defeo, Omar

2013-10-01

Determining the existence of interconnected responses among life-history traits and identifying underlying environmental drivers are recognized as key goals for understanding the basis of phenotypic variability. We studied potentially interconnected responses among senescence, fecundity, embryos size, weight of brooding females, size at maturity and sex ratio in a semiterrestrial amphipod affected by macroscale gradients in beach morphodynamics and salinity. To this end, multiple modelling processes based on generalized additive mixed models were used to deal with the spatio-temporal structure of the data obtained at 10 beaches during 22 months. Salinity was the only nexus among life-history traits, suggesting that this physiological stressor influences the energy balance of organisms. Different salinity scenarios determined shifts in the weight of brooding females and size at maturity, having consequences in the number and size of embryos which in turn affected sex determination and sex ratio at the population level. Our work highlights the importance of analysing field data to find the variables and potential mechanisms that define concerted responses among traits, therefore defining life-history strategies.

Temporal production and visuospatial processing.

PubMed

Benuzzi, Francesca; Basso, Gianpaolo; Nichelli, Paolo

2005-12-01

Current models of prospective timing hypothesize that estimated duration is influenced either by the attentional load or by the short-term memory requirements of a concurrent nontemporal task. In the present study, we addressed this issue with four dual-task experiments. In Exp. 1, the effect of memory load on both reaction time and temporal production was proportional to the number of items of a visuospatial pattern to hold in memory. In Exps. 2, 3, and 4, a temporal production task was combined with two visual search tasks involving either pre-attentive or attentional processing. Visual tasks interfered with temporal production: produced intervals were lengthened proportionally to the display size. In contrast, reaction times increased with display size only when a serial, effortful search was required. It appears that memory and perceptual set size, rather than nonspecific attentional or short-term memory load, can influence prospective timing.

Understanding and estimating effective population size for practical application in marine species management.

PubMed

Hare, Matthew P; Nunney, Leonard; Schwartz, Michael K; Ruzzante, Daniel E; Burford, Martha; Waples, Robin S; Ruegg, Kristen; Palstra, Friso

2011-06-01

Effective population size (N(e)) determines the strength of genetic drift in a population and has long been recognized as an important parameter for evaluating conservation status and threats to genetic health of populations. Specifically, an estimate of N(e) is crucial to management because it integrates genetic effects with the life history of the species, allowing for predictions of a population's current and future viability. Nevertheless, compared with ecological and demographic parameters, N(e) has had limited influence on species management, beyond its application in very small populations. Recent developments have substantially improved N(e) estimation; however, some obstacles remain for the practical application of N(e) estimates. For example, the need to define the spatial and temporal scale of measurement makes the concept complex and sometimes difficult to interpret. We reviewed approaches to estimation of N(e) over both long-term and contemporary time frames, clarifying their interpretations with respect to local populations and the global metapopulation. We describe multiple experimental factors affecting robustness of contemporary N(e) estimates and suggest that different sampling designs can be combined to compare largely independent measures of N(e) for improved confidence in the result. Large populations with moderate gene flow pose the greatest challenges to robust estimation of contemporary N(e) and require careful consideration of sampling and analysis to minimize estimator bias. We emphasize the practical utility of estimating N(e) by highlighting its relevance to the adaptive potential of a population and describing applications in management of marine populations, where the focus is not always on critically endangered populations. Two cases discussed include the mechanisms generating N(e) estimates many orders of magnitude lower than census N in harvested marine fishes and the predicted reduction in N(e) from hatchery-based population supplementation. ©2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Contrasting effects of climate on juvenile body size in a Southern Hemisphere passerine bird.

PubMed

Kruuk, Loeske E B; Osmond, Helen L; Cockburn, Andrew

2015-08-01

Despite extensive research on the topic, it has been difficult to reach general conclusions as to the effects of climate change on morphology in wild animals: in particular, the effects of warming temperatures have been associated with increases, decreases or stasis in body size in different populations. Here, we use a fine-scale analysis of associations between weather and offspring body size in a long-term study of a wild passerine bird, the cooperatively breeding superb fairy-wren, in south-eastern Australia to show that such variation in the direction of associations occurs even within a population. Over the past 26 years, our study population has experienced increased temperatures, increased frequency of heatwaves and reduced rainfall - but the mean body mass of chicks has not changed. Despite the apparent stasis, mass was associated with weather across the previous year, but in multiple counteracting ways. Firstly, (i) chick mass was negatively associated with extremely recent heatwaves, but there also positive associations with (ii) higher maximum temperatures and (iii) higher rainfall, both occurring in a period prior to and during the nesting period, and finally (iv) a longer-term negative association with higher maximum temperatures following the previous breeding season. Our results illustrate how a morphological trait may be affected by both short- and long-term effects of the same weather variable at multiple times of the year and that these effects may act in different directions. We also show that climate within the relevant time windows may not be changing in the same way, such that overall long-term temporal trends in body size may be minimal. Such complexity means that analytical approaches that search for a single 'best' window for one particular weather variable may miss other relevant information, and is also likely to make analyses of phenotypic plasticity and prediction of longer-term population dynamics difficult. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Sizing ocean giants: patterns of intraspecific size variation in marine megafauna

PubMed Central

Balk, Meghan A.; Benfield, Mark C.; Branch, Trevor A.; Chen, Catherine; Cosgrove, James; Dove, Alistair D.M.; Gaskins, Lindsay C.; Helm, Rebecca R.; Hochberg, Frederick G.; Lee, Frank B.; Marshall, Andrea; McMurray, Steven E.; Schanche, Caroline; Stone, Shane N.; Thaler, Andrew D.

2015-01-01

What are the greatest sizes that the largest marine megafauna obtain? This is a simple question with a difficult and complex answer. Many of the largest-sized species occur in the world’s oceans. For many of these, rarity, remoteness, and quite simply the logistics of measuring these giants has made obtaining accurate size measurements difficult. Inaccurate reports of maximum sizes run rampant through the scientific literature and popular media. Moreover, how intraspecific variation in the body sizes of these animals relates to sex, population structure, the environment, and interactions with humans remains underappreciated. Here, we review and analyze body size for 25 ocean giants ranging across the animal kingdom. For each taxon we document body size for the largest known marine species of several clades. We also analyze intraspecific variation and identify the largest known individuals for each species. Where data allows, we analyze spatial and temporal intraspecific size variation. We also provide allometric scaling equations between different size measurements as resources to other researchers. In some cases, the lack of data prevents us from fully examining these topics and instead we specifically highlight these deficiencies and the barriers that exist for data collection. Overall, we found considerable variability in intraspecific size distributions from strongly left- to strongly right-skewed. We provide several allometric equations that allow for estimation of total lengths and weights from more easily obtained measurements. In several cases, we also quantify considerable geographic variation and decreases in size likely attributed to humans. PMID:25649000

Brood size manipulations in a spatially and temporally varying environment: male Tengmalm's owls pass increased reproductive costs to offspring.

PubMed

Thomson, Robert L; Griesser, Michael; Laaksonen, Toni; Korpimäki, Erkki

2014-10-01

A key tool used to assess reproductive trade-offs in birds is brood size manipulation (BSM) experiments. Most BSM studies have examined the influence on short-term measures of reproductive output. Seldom evaluated are the effects on long-term fitness proxies under temporally or spatially varying environments. Unpredictable environments may affect reproductive trade-offs by altering the value of the brood or hampering optimization of reproductive effort. We reduced or enlarged broods of 140 male Tengmalm's owls Aegolius funereus by one chick during their first lifetime reproductive event. Males differed in age and bred in environments that varied in quality spatially (habitat structure) and temporally (abundance of main food). We measured the short-term (nestling number and condition) and long-term fitness proxies (survival, lifetime fledgling and recruits produced) until all experimental males disappeared from the population. BSMs did not affect fledgling number or condition, but in enlarged broods, offspring condition was lower in territories with a high proportion of agricultural fields. Importantly, no obvious impacts on long-term fitness proxies emerged; lifetime fledgling and recruit production of males did not differ between the BSM treatments. Thus, the primary caregiver (i.e. Tengmalm's owl males) passed increased reproductive costs to their offspring, which is in agreement with other studies investigating intergenerational reproductive trade-offs in species of intermediate lifespan. Reluctance to accept increased current reproductive costs in these systems highlights the potential for sexual conflict in bi-parental care systems in which one of the pair is the primary caregiver.

Monitoring the effective population size of a brown bear (Ursus arctos) population using new single-sample approaches.

PubMed

Skrbinšek, Tomaž; Jelenčič, Maja; Waits, Lisette; Kos, Ivan; Jerina, Klemen; Trontelj, Peter

2012-02-01

The effective population size (N(e) ) could be the ideal parameter for monitoring populations of conservation concern as it conveniently summarizes both the evolutionary potential of the population and its sensitivity to genetic stochasticity. However, tracing its change through time is difficult in natural populations. We applied four new methods for estimating N(e) from a single sample of genotypes to trace temporal change in N(e) for bears in the Northern Dinaric Mountains. We genotyped 510 bears using 20 microsatellite loci and determined their age. The samples were organized into cohorts with regard to the year when the animals were born and yearly samples with age categories for every year when they were alive. We used the Estimator by Parentage Assignment (EPA) to directly estimate both N(e) and generation interval for each yearly sample. For cohorts, we estimated the effective number of breeders (N(b) ) using linkage disequilibrium, sibship assignment and approximate Bayesian computation methods and extrapolated these estimates to N(e) using the generation interval. The N(e) estimate by EPA is 276 (183-350 95% CI), meeting the inbreeding-avoidance criterion of N(e) > 50 but short of the long-term minimum viable population goal of N(e) > 500. The results obtained by the other methods are highly consistent with this result, and all indicate a rapid increase in N(e) probably in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The new single-sample approaches to the estimation of N(e) provide efficient means for including N(e) in monitoring frameworks and will be of great importance for future management and conservation. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Identifying key demographic parameters of a small island-associated population of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Reunion, Indian Ocean).

PubMed

Dulau, Violaine; Estrade, Vanessa; Fayan, Jacques

2017-01-01

Photo-identification surveys of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins were conducted from 2009 to 2014 off Reunion Island (55°E33'/21°S07'), in the Indian Ocean. Robust Design models were applied to produce the most reliable estimate of population abundance and survival rate, while accounting for temporary emigration from the survey area (west coast). The sampling scheme consisted of a five-month (June-October) sampling period in each year of the study. The overall population size at Reunion was estimated to be 72 individuals (SE = 6.17, 95%CI = 61-85), based on a random temporary emigration (γ") of 0.096 and a proportion of 0.70 (SE = 0.03) distinct individuals. The annual survival rate was 0.93 (±0.018 SE, 95%CI = 0.886-0.958) and was constant over time and between sexes. Models considering gender groups indicated different movement patterns between males and females. Males showed null or quasi-null temporary emigration (γ" = γ' < 0.01), while females showed a random temporary emigration (γ") of 0.10, suggesting that a small proportion of females was outside the survey area during each primary sampling period. Sex-specific temporary migration patterns were consistent with movement and residency patterns observed in other areas. The Robust Design approach provided an appropriate sampling scheme for deriving island-associated population parameters, while allowing to restrict survey effort both spatially (i.e. west coast only) and temporally (five months per year). Although abundance and survival were stable over the six years, the small population size of fewer than 100 individuals suggested that this population is highly vulnerable. Priority should be given to reducing any potential impact of human activity on the population and its habitat.

Size-frequency distributions along a latitudinal gradient in Middle Permian fusulinoideans.

PubMed

Zhang, Yichun; Payne, Jonathan L

2012-01-01

Geographic gradients in body size within and among living species are commonly used to identify controls on the long-term evolution of organism size. However, the persistence of these gradients over evolutionary time remains largely unknown because ancient biogeographic variation in organism size is poorly documented. Middle Permian fusulinoidean foraminifera are ideal for investigating the temporal persistence of geographic gradients in organism size because they were diverse and abundant along a broad range of paleo-latitudes during this interval (~275-260 million years ago). In this study, we determined the sizes of Middle Permian fusulinoidean fossils from three different paleo-latitudinal zones in order to examine the relationship between the size of foraminifers and regional environment. We recovered the following results: keriothecal fusulinoideans are substantially larger than nonkeriothecal fusulinoideans; fusulinoideans from the equatorial zone are typically larger than those from the north and south transitional zones; neoschwagerinid specimens within a single species are generally larger in the equatorial zone than those in both transitional zones; and the nonkeriothecal fusulinoideans Staffellidae and Schubertellidae have smaller size in the north transitional zone. Fusulinoidean foraminifers differ from most other marine taxa in exhibiting larger sizes closer to the equator, contrary to Bergmann's rule. Meridional variation in seasonality, water temperature, nutrient availability, and carbonate saturation level are all likely to have favored or enabled larger sizes in equatorial regions. Temporal variation in atmospheric oxygen concentrations have been shown to account for temporal variation in fusulinoidean size during Carboniferous and Permian time, but oxygen availability appears unlikely to explain biogeographic variation in fusulinoidean sizes, because dissolved oxygen concentrations in seawater typically increase away from the equator due to declining seawater temperatures. Consequently, our findings highlight the fact that spatial gradients in organism size are not always controlled by the same factors that govern temporal trends within the same clade.

Size-Frequency Distributions along a Latitudinal Gradient in Middle Permian Fusulinoideans

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yichun; Payne, Jonathan L.

2012-01-01

Geographic gradients in body size within and among living species are commonly used to identify controls on the long-term evolution of organism size. However, the persistence of these gradients over evolutionary time remains largely unknown because ancient biogeographic variation in organism size is poorly documented. Middle Permian fusulinoidean foraminifera are ideal for investigating the temporal persistence of geographic gradients in organism size because they were diverse and abundant along a broad range of paleo-latitudes during this interval (∼275–260 million years ago). In this study, we determined the sizes of Middle Permian fusulinoidean fossils from three different paleo-latitudinal zones in order to examine the relationship between the size of foraminifers and regional environment. We recovered the following results: keriothecal fusulinoideans are substantially larger than nonkeriothecal fusulinoideans; fusulinoideans from the equatorial zone are typically larger than those from the north and south transitional zones; neoschwagerinid specimens within a single species are generally larger in the equatorial zone than those in both transitional zones; and the nonkeriothecal fusulinoideans Staffellidae and Schubertellidae have smaller size in the north transitional zone. Fusulinoidean foraminifers differ from most other marine taxa in exhibiting larger sizes closer to the equator, contrary to Bergmann's rule. Meridional variation in seasonality, water temperature, nutrient availability, and carbonate saturation level are all likely to have favored or enabled larger sizes in equatorial regions. Temporal variation in atmospheric oxygen concentrations have been shown to account for temporal variation in fusulinoidean size during Carboniferous and Permian time, but oxygen availability appears unlikely to explain biogeographic variation in fusulinoidean sizes, because dissolved oxygen concentrations in seawater typically increase away from the equator due to declining seawater temperatures. Consequently, our findings highlight the fact that spatial gradients in organism size are not always controlled by the same factors that govern temporal trends within the same clade. PMID:22685590

Temporal Genetic Dynamics of an Invasive Species, Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), in an Early Phase of Establishment.

PubMed

Yang, Xian-Ming; Lou, Heng; Sun, Jing-Tao; Zhu, Yi-Ming; Xue, Xiao-Feng; Hong, Xiao-Yue

2015-07-03

Many species can successfully colonize new areas despite their propagules having low genetic variation. We assessed whether the decreased genetic diversity could result in temporal fluctuations of genetic parameters of the new populations of an invasive species, western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis, using mitochondrial and microsatellite markers. This study was conducted in eight localities from four climate regions in China, where F. occidentalis was introduced in the year 2000 and had lower genetic diversity than its native populations. We also tested the level of genetic differentiation in these introduced populations. The genetic diversity of the samples at different years in the same locality was not significantly different from each other in most localities. FST and STRUCTURE analysis also showed that most temporal population comparisons from the same sites were not significantly differentiated. Our results showed that the invasive populations of F. occidentalis in China can maintain temporal stability in genetic composition at an early phase of establishment despite having lower genetic diversity than in their native range.

Experimental study on the coalescence process of SiO2 supported colloidal Au nanoparticles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruffino, F.; Torrisi, V.; Grimaldi, M. G.

2015-11-01

We report on an experimental study of the coalescence-driven grow process of colloidal Au nanoparticles on SiO2 surface. Nanoparticles with 30, 50, 80, 100 nm nominal diameters on a SiO2 substrate were deposited, from solutions, by the drop-casting method. Then, annealing processes, in the 573-1173 K temperature range and 900-3600 s time range, were performed. Using scanning electron microscopy analyses, the temporal evolution of the nanoparticles sizes has been studied. In particular, for all classes of nanoparticles, the experimental-obtained diameters distributions evidenced double-peak shapes (i. e. bimodal distributions): a first peak centered (and unchanged changing the annealing temperature and/or time) at the nominal diameter of the as-deposited nanoparticles, , and a second peak shifting at higher mean diameters, , increasing the annealing temperature and/or time. This observation suggested us a coalescence-driven growth process of a nanoparticles sub-population. As a consequence, the temporal evolution of (for each class of nanoparticles and each annealing temperature), within the well-established particles coalescence theoretical framework, has been analyzed. In particular, by the analyses of the experimental data using relations as prescribed by the theoretical model, a characteristic size-dependent activation energy for the Au nanoparticles coalescence process has been evaluated.

Population genetic structure of eelgrass (Zostera marina) on the Korean coast: Current status and conservation implications for future management

PubMed Central

Kim, Jae Hwan; Kang, Ji Hyoun; Jang, Ji Eun; Choi, Sun Kyeong; Kim, Min Ji; Park, Sang Rul; Lee, Hyuk Je

2017-01-01

Seagrasses provide numerous ecosystem services for coastal and estuarine environments, such as nursery functions, erosion protection, pollution filtration, and carbon sequestration. Zostera marina (common name “eelgrass”) is one of the seagrass bed-forming species distributed widely in the northern hemisphere, including the Korean Peninsula. Recently, however, there has been a drastic decline in the population size of Z. marina worldwide, including Korea. We examined the current population genetic status of this species on the southern coast of Korea by estimating the levels of genetic diversity and genetic structure of 10 geographic populations using eight nuclear microsatellite markers. The level of genetic diversity was found to be significantly lower for populations on Jeju Island [mean allelic richness (AR) = 1.92, clonal diversity (R) = 0.51], which is located approximately 155 km off the southernmost region of the Korean Peninsula, than for those in the South Sea (mean AR = 2.69, R = 0.82), which is on the southern coast of the mainland. South Korean eelgrass populations were substantially genetically divergent from one another (FST = 0.061–0.573), suggesting that limited contemporary gene flow has been taking place among populations. We also found weak but detectable temporal variation in genetic structure within a site over 10 years. In additional depth comparisons, statistically significant genetic differentiation was observed between shallow (or middle) and deep zones in two of three sites tested. Depleted genetic diversity, small effective population sizes (Ne) and limited connectivity for populations on Jeju Island indicate that these populations may be vulnerable to local extinction under changing environmental conditions, especially given that Jeju Island is one of the fastest warming regions around the world. Overall, our work will inform conservation and restoration efforts, including transplantation for eelgrass populations at the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula, for this ecologically important species. PMID:28323864

Population genetic structure of eelgrass (Zostera marina) on the Korean coast: Current status and conservation implications for future management.

PubMed

Kim, Jae Hwan; Kang, Ji Hyoun; Jang, Ji Eun; Choi, Sun Kyeong; Kim, Min Ji; Park, Sang Rul; Lee, Hyuk Je

2017-01-01

Seagrasses provide numerous ecosystem services for coastal and estuarine environments, such as nursery functions, erosion protection, pollution filtration, and carbon sequestration. Zostera marina (common name "eelgrass") is one of the seagrass bed-forming species distributed widely in the northern hemisphere, including the Korean Peninsula. Recently, however, there has been a drastic decline in the population size of Z. marina worldwide, including Korea. We examined the current population genetic status of this species on the southern coast of Korea by estimating the levels of genetic diversity and genetic structure of 10 geographic populations using eight nuclear microsatellite markers. The level of genetic diversity was found to be significantly lower for populations on Jeju Island [mean allelic richness (AR) = 1.92, clonal diversity (R) = 0.51], which is located approximately 155 km off the southernmost region of the Korean Peninsula, than for those in the South Sea (mean AR = 2.69, R = 0.82), which is on the southern coast of the mainland. South Korean eelgrass populations were substantially genetically divergent from one another (FST = 0.061-0.573), suggesting that limited contemporary gene flow has been taking place among populations. We also found weak but detectable temporal variation in genetic structure within a site over 10 years. In additional depth comparisons, statistically significant genetic differentiation was observed between shallow (or middle) and deep zones in two of three sites tested. Depleted genetic diversity, small effective population sizes (Ne) and limited connectivity for populations on Jeju Island indicate that these populations may be vulnerable to local extinction under changing environmental conditions, especially given that Jeju Island is one of the fastest warming regions around the world. Overall, our work will inform conservation and restoration efforts, including transplantation for eelgrass populations at the southern tip of the Korean Peninsula, for this ecologically important species.

Demographic consequences of greater clonal than sexual reproduction in Dicentra canadensis.

PubMed

Lin, Chia-Hua; Miriti, Maria N; Goodell, Karen

2016-06-01

Clonality is a widespread life history trait in flowering plants that may be essential for population persistence, especially in environments where sexual reproduction is unpredictable. Frequent clonal reproduction, however, could hinder sexual reproduction by spatially aggregating ramets that compete with seedlings and reduce inter-genet pollination. Nevertheless, the role of clonality in relation to variable sexual reproduction in population dynamics is often overlooked. We combined population matrix models and pollination experiments to compare the demographic contributions of clonal and sexual reproduction in three Dicentra canadensis populations, one in a well-forested landscape and two in isolated forest remnants. We constructed stage-based transition matrices from 3 years of census data to evaluate annual population growth rates, λ. We used loop analysis to evaluate the relative contribution of different reproductive pathways to λ. Despite strong temporal and spatial variation in seed set, populations generally showed stable growth rates. Although we detected some pollen limitation of seed set, manipulative pollination treatments did not affect population growth rates. Clonal reproduction contributed significantly more than sexual reproduction to population growth in the forest remnants. Only at the well-forested site did sexual reproduction contribute as much as clonal reproduction to population growth. Flowering plants were more likely to transition to a smaller size class with reduced reproductive potential in the following year than similarly sized nonflowering plants, suggesting energy trade-offs between sexual and clonal reproduction at the individual level. Seed production had negligible effects on growth and tuber production of individual plants. Our results demonstrate that clonal reproduction is vital for population persistence in a system where sexual reproduction is unpredictable. The bias toward clonality may be driven by low fitness returns for resource investment in sexual reproduction at the individual level. However, chronic failure in sexual reproduction may exacerbate the imbalance between sexual and clonal reproduction and eventually lead to irreversible loss of sex in the population.

Outbreeding and lack of temporal genetic structure in a drone congregation of the neotropical stingless bee Scaptotrigona mexicana

PubMed Central

Mueller, Matthias Y; Moritz, Robin FA; Kraus, F Bernhard

2012-01-01

Drone aggregations are a widespread phenomenon in many stingless bee species (Meliponini), but the ultimate and proximate causes for their formation are still not well understood. One adaptive explanation for this phenomenon is the avoidance of inbreeding, which is especially detrimental for stingless bees due to the combined effects of the complementary sex-determining system and the small effective population size caused by eusociality and monandry. We analyzed the temporal genetic dynamics of a drone aggregation of the stingless bee Scaptotrigona mexicana with microsatellite markers over a time window of four weeks. We estimated the drones of the aggregation to originate from a total of 55 colonies using sibship re-construction. There was no detectable temporal genetic differentiation or sub-structuring in the aggregation. Most important, we could exclude all colonies in close proximity of the aggregation as origin of the drones in the aggregation, implicating that they originate from more distant colonies. We conclude that the diverse genetic composition and the distant origin of the drones of the S. mexicana drone congregation provides an effective mechanism to avoid mating among close relatives. PMID:22833802

Outbreeding and lack of temporal genetic structure in a drone congregation of the neotropical stingless bee Scaptotrigona mexicana.

PubMed

Mueller, Matthias Y; Moritz, Robin Fa; Kraus, F Bernhard

2012-06-01

Drone aggregations are a widespread phenomenon in many stingless bee species (Meliponini), but the ultimate and proximate causes for their formation are still not well understood. One adaptive explanation for this phenomenon is the avoidance of inbreeding, which is especially detrimental for stingless bees due to the combined effects of the complementary sex-determining system and the small effective population size caused by eusociality and monandry. We analyzed the temporal genetic dynamics of a drone aggregation of the stingless bee Scaptotrigona mexicana with microsatellite markers over a time window of four weeks. We estimated the drones of the aggregation to originate from a total of 55 colonies using sibship re-construction. There was no detectable temporal genetic differentiation or sub-structuring in the aggregation. Most important, we could exclude all colonies in close proximity of the aggregation as origin of the drones in the aggregation, implicating that they originate from more distant colonies. We conclude that the diverse genetic composition and the distant origin of the drones of the S. mexicana drone congregation provides an effective mechanism to avoid mating among close relatives.

Effective number of breeding adults in Bufo bufo estimated from age-specific variation at minisatellite loci

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, K.T.; Arntzen, J.W.; Burke, T.

1997-01-01

Estimates of the effective number of breeding adults were derived for three semi-isolated populations of the common toad Bufo bufo based on temporal (i.e. adult-progeny) variance in allele frequency for three highly polymorphic minisatellite loci. Estimates of spatial variance in allele frequency among populations and of age-specific measures of genetic variability are also described. Each population was characterized by a low effective adult breeding number (N(b)) based on a large age-specific variance in minisatellite allele frequency. Estimates of N(b) (range 21-46 for population means across three loci) were ??? 55-230-fold lower than estimates of total adult census size. The implications of low effective breeding numbers for long-term maintenance of genetic variability and population viability are discussed relative to the species' reproductive ecology, current land-use practices, and present and historical habitat modification and loss. The utility of indirect measures of population parameters such as N(b) and N(e) based on time-series data of minisatellite allele frequencies is discussed relative to similar measures estimated from commonly used genetic markers such as protein allozymes.

Effects of Fishing and Fishing Closures on Beach Clams: Experimental Evaluation across Commercially Fished and Non-Fished Beaches before and during Harvesting

PubMed Central

Gray, Charles A.

2016-01-01

Management responses to reconcile declining fisheries typically include closed areas and times to fishing. This study evaluated this strategy for a beach clam fishery by testing the hypothesis that changes in the densities and size compositions of clams from before to during harvesting would differ between commercially fished and non-fished beaches. Sampling was spatially stratified across the swash and dry sand habitats on each of two commercially fished and two non-fished beaches, and temporally stratified across three six-week blocks: before, early and late harvesting. Small-scale spatio-temporal variability in the densities and sizes of clams was prevalent across both habitats and the components of variation were generally greatest at the lowest levels examined. Despite this, differences in the densities and sizes of clams among individual beaches were evident, but there were few significant differences across the commercially fished versus non-fished beaches from before to during harvesting. There was no evidence of reduced densities or truncated size compositions of clams on fished compared to non-fished beaches, contrasting reports of some other organisms in protected areas. This was probably due to a combination of factors, including the current levels of commercial harvests, the movements and other local-scale responses of clams to ecological processes acting independently across individual beaches. The results identify the difficulties in detecting fishing-related impacts against inherent levels of variability in clam populations. Nevertheless, continued experimental studies that test alternate management arrangements may help refine and determine the most suitable strategies for the sustainable harvesting of beach clams, ultimately enhancing the management of sandy beaches. PMID:26731102

Effects of Fishing and Fishing Closures on Beach Clams: Experimental Evaluation across Commercially Fished and Non-Fished Beaches before and during Harvesting.

PubMed

Gray, Charles A

2016-01-01

Management responses to reconcile declining fisheries typically include closed areas and times to fishing. This study evaluated this strategy for a beach clam fishery by testing the hypothesis that changes in the densities and size compositions of clams from before to during harvesting would differ between commercially fished and non-fished beaches. Sampling was spatially stratified across the swash and dry sand habitats on each of two commercially fished and two non-fished beaches, and temporally stratified across three six-week blocks: before, early and late harvesting. Small-scale spatio-temporal variability in the densities and sizes of clams was prevalent across both habitats and the components of variation were generally greatest at the lowest levels examined. Despite this, differences in the densities and sizes of clams among individual beaches were evident, but there were few significant differences across the commercially fished versus non-fished beaches from before to during harvesting. There was no evidence of reduced densities or truncated size compositions of clams on fished compared to non-fished beaches, contrasting reports of some other organisms in protected areas. This was probably due to a combination of factors, including the current levels of commercial harvests, the movements and other local-scale responses of clams to ecological processes acting independently across individual beaches. The results identify the difficulties in detecting fishing-related impacts against inherent levels of variability in clam populations. Nevertheless, continued experimental studies that test alternate management arrangements may help refine and determine the most suitable strategies for the sustainable harvesting of beach clams, ultimately enhancing the management of sandy beaches.

What determines species richness of parasitic organisms? A meta-analysis across animal, plant and fungal hosts.

PubMed

Kamiya, Tsukushi; O'Dwyer, Katie; Nakagawa, Shinichi; Poulin, Robert

2014-02-01

Although a small set of external factors account for much of the spatial variation in plant and animal diversity, the search continues for general drivers of variation in parasite species richness among host species. Qualitative reviews of existing evidence suggest idiosyncrasies and inconsistent predictive power for all proposed determinants of parasite richness. Here, we provide the first quantitative synthesis of the evidence using a meta-analysis of 62 original studies testing the relationship between parasite richness across animal, plant and fungal hosts, and each of its four most widely used presumed predictors: host body size, host geographical range size, host population density, and latitude. We uncover three universal predictors of parasite richness across host species, namely host body size, geographical range size and population density, applicable regardless of the taxa considered and independently of most aspects of study design. A proper match in the primary studies between the focal predictor and both the spatial scale of study and the level at which parasite species richness was quantified (i.e. within host populations or tallied across a host species' entire range) also affected the magnitude of effect sizes. By contrast, except for a couple of indicative trends in subsets of the full dataset, there was no strong evidence for an effect of latitude on parasite species richness; where found, this effect ran counter to the general latitude gradient in diversity, with parasite species richness tending to be higher further from the equator. Finally, the meta-analysis also revealed a negative relationship between the magnitude of effect sizes and the year of publication of original studies (i.e. a time-lag bias). This temporal bias may be due to the increasing use of phylogenetic correction in comparative analyses of parasite richness over time, as this correction yields more conservative effect sizes. Overall, these findings point to common underlying processes of parasite diversification fundamentally different from those controlling the diversity of free-living organisms. © 2013 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2013 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Transformation of temporal sequences in the zebra finch auditory system

PubMed Central

Lim, Yoonseob; Lagoy, Ryan; Shinn-Cunningham, Barbara G; Gardner, Timothy J

2016-01-01

This study examines how temporally patterned stimuli are transformed as they propagate from primary to secondary zones in the thalamorecipient auditory pallium in zebra finches. Using a new class of synthetic click stimuli, we find a robust mapping from temporal sequences in the primary zone to distinct population vectors in secondary auditory areas. We tested whether songbirds could discriminate synthetic click sequences in an operant setup and found that a robust behavioral discrimination is present for click sequences composed of intervals ranging from 11 ms to 40 ms, but breaks down for stimuli composed of longer inter-click intervals. This work suggests that the analog of the songbird auditory cortex transforms temporal patterns to sequence-selective population responses or ‘spatial codes', and that these distinct population responses contribute to behavioral discrimination of temporally complex sounds. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18205.001 PMID:27897971

Truly sedentary? The multi-range tactic as a response to resource heterogeneity and unpredictability in a large herbivore.

PubMed

Couriot, Ophélie; Hewison, A J Mark; Saïd, Sonia; Cagnacci, Francesca; Chamaillé-Jammes, Simon; Linnell, John D C; Mysterud, Atle; Peters, Wibke; Urbano, Ferdinando; Heurich, Marco; Kjellander, Petter; Nicoloso, Sandro; Berger, Anne; Sustr, Pavel; Kroeschel, Max; Soennichsen, Leif; Sandfort, Robin; Gehr, Benedikt; Morellet, Nicolas

2018-05-01

Much research on large herbivore movement has focused on the annual scale to distinguish between resident and migratory tactics, commonly assuming that individuals are sedentary at the within-season scale. However, apparently sedentary animals may occupy a number of sub-seasonal functional home ranges (sfHR), particularly when the environment is spatially heterogeneous and/or temporally unpredictable. The roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) experiences sharply contrasting environmental conditions due to its widespread distribution, but appears markedly sedentary over much of its range. Using GPS monitoring from 15 populations across Europe, we evaluated the propensity of this large herbivore to be truly sedentary at the seasonal scale in relation to variation in environmental conditions. We studied movement using net square displacement to identify the possible use of sfHR. We expected that roe deer should be less sedentary within seasons in heterogeneous and unpredictable environments, while migratory individuals should be seasonally more sedentary than residents. Our analyses revealed that, across the 15 populations, all individuals adopted a multi-range tactic, occupying between two and nine sfHR during a given season. In addition, we showed that (i) the number of sfHR was only marginally influenced by variation in resource distribution, but decreased with increasing sfHR size; and (ii) the distance between sfHR increased with increasing heterogeneity and predictability in resource distribution, as well as with increasing sfHR size. We suggest that the multi-range tactic is likely widespread among large herbivores, allowing animals to track spatio-temporal variation in resource distribution and, thereby, to cope with changes in their local environment.

Spatio-temporal patterns and environmental controls of small pelagic fish body condition from contrasted Mediterranean areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brosset, Pablo; Fromentin, Jean-Marc; Van Beveren, Elisabeth; Lloret, Josep; Marques, Virginie; Basilone, Gualtiero; Bonanno, Angelo; Carpi, Piera; Donato, Fortunata; Čikeš Keč, Vanja; De Felice, Andrea; Ferreri, Rosalia; Gašparević, Denis; Giráldez, Ana; Gücü, Ali; Iglesias, Magdalena; Leonori, Iole; Palomera, Isabel; Somarakis, Stylianos; Tičina, Vjekoslav; Torres, Pedro; Ventero, Ana; Zorica, Barbara; Ménard, Frédéric; Saraux, Claire

2017-02-01

Small pelagic fish are among the most ecologically and economically important marine fish species and are characterized by large fluctuations all over the world. In the Mediterranean Sea, low catches and biomass of anchovies and sardines have been described in some areas during the last decade, resulting in important fisheries crises. Therefore, we studied anchovy and sardine body condition variability, a key index of population health and its response to environmental and anthropogenic changes. Wide temporal and spatial patterns were investigated by analyzing separately data from scientific surveys and fisheries in eight Mediterranean areas between 1975 and 2015. Results showed that anchovy and sardine body condition as well as maximum size in some areas sharply decreased in most Mediterranean areas along years (except in the Northern Alboran Sea). Despite this general pattern, well-marked environmental differences between sub-regions were highlighted by several analyses and variations in body condition were not found to be homogeneous over all the Mediterranean Sea. Further, other analyses revealed that except for the Adriatic where major changes towards a lower body condition were concomitant with a decrease in river runoffs and chl-a concentration, no concomitant environmental regime shift was detected in other areas. Together, these analyses highlighted the current poor body condition of almost all small pelagic fish populations in the Mediterranean. Yet, global environmental indices could not explain the observed changes and the general decrease in condition might more likely come from regional environmental and/or anthropogenic (fishing) effects. A prolonged state of poor fish body condition, together with an observed reduced size and early age-at-maturity may have strong ecological, economic and social consequences all around the Mediterranean Sea.

Habitat traits and patterns of abundance of the purple sea urchin, Paracentrotus lividus (Lamarck, 1816), at multiple scales along the north Portuguese coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domínguez, Rula; Domínguez Godino, Jorge; Freitas, Cristiano; Machado, Inês; Bertocci, Iacopo

2015-03-01

Spatial and temporal patterns of abundance and distribution of sea urchins (Paracentrotus lividus) from intertidal rockpools of the north Portuguese coast were examined in relation to physical (surface, altitude, depth, topographic complexity and exposure) and biological (substrate cover by dominant organisms) habitat traits. The methodology was based on a multi-factorial design where the total number and the abundance of urchins in each of six size classes were sampled over a range of spatial scales, from 10s of cm to kms, and a temporal scale of five months. The results highlighted three main features of the studied system: (1) the largest proportion of variability of sea urchins occurred at the smallest scale examined; (2) urchins from different size classes showed different patterns of abundance in relation to habitat traits; (3) variables normally invoked as potential drivers of distribution of urchins at a range of scales, such as hydrodynamics and shore height, were relatively less important than other abiotic (i.e. pool area, pool mean depth calculated over five replicate measures and sand cover) and biological (i.e. space occupancy by the reef-forming polychaete Sabellaria alveolata and mussels vs. availability of bare rock) variables to provide a considerable contribution to the variability of sea urchins. Intertidal populations of sea urchins are abundant on many rocky shores, where they are socially and economically important as food resource and ecologically key as habitat modelers. This study provides new clues on relatively unstudied populations, with relevant implications for possible management decisions, including the implementation of protection schemes able to preserve the main recruitment, settlement and development areas of P. lividus.

Are long-term widespread avian body size changes related to food availability? A test using contemporaneous changes in carotenoid-based color.

PubMed

Little, Roellen; Gardner, Janet L; Amano, Tatsuya; Delhey, Kaspar; Peters, Anne

2017-05-01

Recent changes in global climate have been linked with changes in animal body size. While declines in body size are commonly explained as an adaptive thermoregulatory response to climate warming, many species do not decline in size, and alternative explanations for size change exist. One possibility is that temporal changes in animal body size are driven by changes in environmental productivity and food availability. This hypothesis is difficult to test due to the lack of suitable estimates that go back in time. Here, we use an alternative, indirect, approach and assess whether continent-wide changes over the previous 100 years in body size in 15 species of Australian birds are associated with changes in their yellow carotenoid-based plumage coloration. This type of coloration is strongly affected by food availability because birds cannot synthesize carotenoids and need to ingest them, and because color expression depends on general body condition. We found significant continent-wide intraspecific temporal changes in body size (wing length) and yellow carotenoid-based color (plumage reflectance) for half the species. Direction and magnitude of changes were highly variable among species. Meta-analysis indicated that neither body size nor yellow plumage color showed a consistent temporal trend and that changes in color were not correlated with changes in size over the past 100 years. We conclude that our data provide no evidence that broad-scale variation in food availability is a general explanation for continent-wide changes in body size in this group of species. The interspecific variability in temporal changes in size as well as color suggests that it might be unlikely that a single factor drives these changes, and more detailed studies of museum specimens and long-term field studies are required to disentangle the processes involved.

Spatio-temporal population estimates for risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cockings, Samantha; Martin, David; Smith, Alan; Martin, Rebecca

2013-04-01

Accurate estimation of population at risk from hazards and effective emergency management of events require not just appropriate spatio-temporal modelling of hazards but also of population. While much recent effort has been focused on improving the modelling and predictions of hazards (both natural and anthropogenic), there has been little parallel advance in the measurement or modelling of population statistics. Different hazard types occur over diverse temporal cycles, are of varying duration and differ significantly in their spatial extent. Even events of the same hazard type, such as flood events, vary markedly in their spatial and temporal characteristics. Conceptually and pragmatically then, population estimates should also be available for similarly varying spatio-temporal scales. Routine population statistics derived from traditional censuses or surveys are usually static representations in both space and time, recording people at their place of usual residence on census/survey night and presenting data for administratively defined areas. Such representations effectively fix the scale of population estimates in both space and time, which is unhelpful for meaningful risk management. Over recent years, the Pop24/7 programme of research, based at the University of Southampton (UK), has developed a framework for spatio-temporal modelling of population, based on gridded population surfaces. Based on a data model which is fully flexible in terms of space and time, the framework allows population estimates to be produced for any time slice relevant to the data contained in the model. It is based around a set of origin and destination centroids, which have capacities, spatial extents and catchment areas, all of which can vary temporally, such as by time of day, day of week, season. A background layer, containing information on features such as transport networks and landuse, provides information on the likelihood of people being in certain places at specific times. Unusual patterns associated with special events can also be modelled and the framework is fully volume preserving. Outputs from the model are gridded population surfaces for the specified time slice, either for total population or by sub-groups (e.g. age). Software to implement the models (SurfaceBuilder247) has been developed and pre-processed layers for typical time slices for England and Wales in 2001 and 2006 are available for UK academic purposes. The outputs and modelling framework from the Pop24/7 programme provide significant opportunities for risk management applications. For estimates of mid- to long-term cumulative population exposure to hazards, such as in flood risk mapping, populations can be produced for numerous time slices and integrated with flood models. For applications in emergency response/ management, time-specific population models can be used as seeds for agent-based models or other response/behaviour models. Estimates for sub-groups of the population also permit exploration of vulnerability through space and time. This paper outlines the requirements for effective spatio-temporal population models for risk management. It then describes the Pop24/7 framework and illustrates its potential for risk management through presentation of examples from natural and anthropogenic hazard applications. The paper concludes by highlighting key challenges for future research in this area.

Effect of Leukocyte Telomere Length on Total and Regional Brain Volumes in a Large Population-Based Cohort

PubMed Central

King, Kevin S.; Kozlitina, Julia; Rosenberg, Roger N.; Peshock, Ronald M.; McColl, Roderick W.; Garcia, Christine K.

2017-01-01

Importance Telomere length has been associated with dementia and psychological stress, but its relationship with human brain size is unknown. Objective To determine if peripheral blood telomere length is associated with brain volume. Design, Setting, and Participants Peripheral blood leukocyte telomere length and brain volumes were measured for 1960 individuals in the Dallas Heart Study, a population-based, probability sample of Dallas County, Texas, residents, with a median (25th-75th percentile) age of 50 (42-58) years. Global and 48 regional brain volumes were assessed from the automated analysis of magnetic resonance imaging. Main Outcomes and Measures Telomere length and global and regional brain volumes. Results Leukocyte telomere length was associated with total cerebral volume (β [SE], 0.06 [0.01], P <.001) including white and cortical gray matter volume (β [SE], 0.04 [0.01], P = .002; β [SE], 0.07 [0.02], P <.001, respectively), independent of age, sex, ethnicity, and total intracranial volume. While age was associated with the size of most subsegmental regions of the cerebral cortex, telomere length was associated with certain subsegmental regions. Compared with age, telomere length (TL) explained a sizeable proportion of the variance in volume of the hippocampus, amygdala, and inferior temporal region (hippocampus: βTL [SE], 0.08 [0.02], R2, 0.91% vs βage [SE], −0.16 [0.02], R2, 3.80%; amygdala: βTL [SE], 0.08 [0.02], R2, 0.78% vs βage [SE], −0.19 [0.02], R2,4.63%; inferior temporal: βTL [SE], 0.07 [0.02], R2, 0.92% vs βage [SE], −0.14 [0.02], R2, 3.98%) (P <.001 for all). The association of telomere length and the size of the inferior and superior parietal, hippocampus, and fusiform regions was stronger in individuals older than 50 years than younger individuals (inferior parietal: β>50 [SE], 0.13 [0.03], P <.001 vs β≤50 [SE], 0.02 [0.02], P = .51, P for interaction = .001; superior parietal: β>50 [SE], 0.11 [0.03], P <.001 vs β≤50 [SE], 0.01 [0.02], P = .71, P for interaction = .004; hippocampus: β>50 [SE], 0.10 [0.03], P = .004 vs β≤50 [SE], 0.05 [0.02], P = .07, P for interaction = .04; fusiform: β>50 [SE], 0.09 [0.03], P = .002, β≤50 [SE], 0.03 [0.02], P = .31, P for interaction = .03). The volume of the hippocampus, amygdala, superior and inferior temporal, precuneus, lateral orbitofrontal, posterior cingulate, thalamus and ventral diencephalon were independently associated with telomere length after adjustment for all covariates (age, gender, ethnicity, total intracranial volume, body mass index, blood pressure, diabetes, smoking status, and APOE genotype). Conclusions and Relevance To our knowledge, this is the first population-based study to date to evaluate telomere length as an independent predictor of global and regional brain size. Future studies are needed to determine how telomere length and anatomic structural changes are related to cognitive function, dementia, and psychological disease. PMID:25090243

Genetic drift and collective dispersal can result in chaotic genetic patchiness.

PubMed

Broquet, Thomas; Viard, Frédérique; Yearsley, Jonathan M

2013-06-01

Chaotic genetic patchiness denotes unexpected patterns of genetic differentiation that are observed at a fine scale and are not stable in time. These patterns have been described in marine species with free-living larvae, but are unexpected because they occur at a scale below the dispersal range of pelagic larvae. At the scale where most larvae are immigrants, theory predicts spatially homogeneous, temporally stable genetic variation. Empirical studies have suggested that genetic drift interacts with complex dispersal patterns to create chaotic genetic patchiness. Here we use a co-ancestry model and individual-based simulations to test this idea. We found that chaotic genetic patterns (qualified by global FST and spatio-temporal variation in FST's between pairs of samples) arise from the combined effects of (1) genetic drift created by the small local effective population sizes of the sessile phase and variance in contribution among breeding groups and (2) collective dispersal of related individuals in the larval phase. Simulations show that patchiness levels qualitatively comparable to empirical results can be produced by a combination of strong variance in reproductive success and mild collective dispersal. These results call for empirical studies of the effective number of breeders producing larval cohorts, and population genetics at the larval stage. © 2012 The Author(s). Evolution © 2012 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Transmission network of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone.

PubMed

Yang, Wan; Zhang, Wenyi; Kargbo, David; Yang, Ruifu; Chen, Yong; Chen, Zeliang; Kamara, Abdul; Kargbo, Brima; Kandula, Sasikiran; Karspeck, Alicia; Liu, Chao; Shaman, Jeffrey

2015-11-06

Understanding the growth and spatial expansion of (re)emerging infectious disease outbreaks, such as Ebola and avian influenza, is critical for the effective planning of control measures; however, such efforts are often compromised by data insufficiencies and observational errors. Here, we develop a spatial-temporal inference methodology using a modified network model in conjunction with the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter, a Bayesian inference method equipped to handle observational errors. The combined method is capable of revealing the spatial-temporal progression of infectious disease, while requiring only limited, readily compiled data. We use this method to reconstruct the transmission network of the 2014-2015 Ebola epidemic in Sierra Leone and identify source and sink regions. Our inference suggests that, in Sierra Leone, transmission within the network introduced Ebola to neighbouring districts and initiated self-sustaining local epidemics; two of the more populous and connected districts, Kenema and Port Loko, facilitated two independent transmission pathways. Epidemic intensity differed by district, was highly correlated with population size (r = 0.76, p = 0.0015) and a critical window of opportunity for containing local Ebola epidemics at the source (ca one month) existed. This novel methodology can be used to help identify and contain the spatial expansion of future (re)emerging infectious disease outbreaks. © 2015 The Author(s).

Temporal distribution and weather correlates of Norway rat (Rattus norvegicus) infestations in the city of Madrid, Spain.

PubMed

Tamayo Uria, Ibon; Mateu Mahiques, Jorge; Mughini Gras, Lapo

2013-06-01

Urban Norway rats are challenging pests, posing significant health and economic threats. Implementing ecologically based integrated rodent management (EBIRM) programmes relies primarily on the understanding of ecological relationships between rodents and their environments, with emphasis on the processes influencing rodent populations in the target ecosystem. We investigated the temporal distribution of urban Norway rat infestations in Madrid, Spain, and tested for the association of such infestations with temperature, relative humidity and precipitation by fitting a multivariate Poisson generalized linear model to a 3-year (2006-2008) daily time series of 4,689 Norway rat sightings. Norway rat infestations showed a marked seasonality, peaking in the summer. Most Norway rat sightings were reported on Mondays. Minimum temperature and relative humidity were positively associated with Norway rat infestation, whereas the association with precipitation was negative. The time series was adequately explained by the model. We identified previously unrecognized time periods that are more prone to Norway rat infestation than others and generated hypotheses about the association between weather, human outdoor activity, resource availability, rodent activity and population size. This provided local authorities engaged in preserving urban ecosystem health with basic research information to predict future rodent outbreaks and support the implementation of EBIRM programmes in urban areas.

Local variations in spatial synchrony of influenza epidemics.

PubMed

Stark, James H; Cummings, Derek A T; Ermentrout, Bard; Ostroff, Stephen; Sharma, Ravi; Stebbins, Samuel; Burke, Donald S; Wisniewski, Stephen R

2012-01-01

Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation=62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales.

Local Variations in Spatial Synchrony of Influenza Epidemics

PubMed Central

Stark, James H.; Cummings, Derek A. T.; Ermentrout, Bard; Ostroff, Stephen; Sharma, Ravi; Stebbins, Samuel; Burke, Donald S.; Wisniewski, Stephen R.

2012-01-01

Background Understanding the mechanism of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales is not complete. While the mechanism of dissemination across regions and states of the United States has been described, understanding the determinants of dissemination between counties has not been elucidated. The paucity of high resolution spatial-temporal influenza incidence data to evaluate disease structure is often not available. Methodology and Findings We report on the underlying relationship between the spread of influenza and human movement between counties of one state. Significant synchrony in the timing of epidemics exists across the entire state and decay with distance (regional correlation = 62%). Synchrony as a function of population size display evidence of hierarchical spread with more synchronized epidemics occurring among the most populated counties. A gravity model describing movement between two populations is a stronger predictor of influenza spread than adult movement to and from workplaces suggesting that non-routine and leisure travel drive local epidemics. Conclusions These findings highlight the complex nature of influenza spread across multiple geographic scales. PMID:22916274

Spatio-temporal genetic variation of the biting midge vector species Culicoides imicola (Ceratopogonidae) Kieffer in France.

PubMed

Jacquet, Stéphanie; Huber, Karine; Guis, Hélène; Setier-Rio, Marie-Laure; Goffredo, Maria; Allène, Xavier; Rakotoarivony, Ignace; Chevillon, Christine; Bouyer, Jérémy; Baldet, Thierry; Balenghien, Thomas; Garros, Claire

2016-03-11

Introduction of vector species into new areas represents a main driver for the emergence and worldwide spread of vector-borne diseases. This poses a substantial threat to livestock economies and public health. Culicoides imicola Kieffer, a major vector species of economically important animal viruses, is described with an apparent range expansion in Europe where it has been recorded in south-eastern continental France, its known northern distribution edge. This questioned on further C. imicola population extension and establishment into new territories. Studying the spatio-temporal genetic variation of expanding populations can provide valuable information for the design of reliable models of future spread. Entomological surveys and population genetic approaches were used to assess the spatio-temporal population dynamics of C. imicola in France. Entomological surveys (2-3 consecutive years) were used to evaluate population abundances and local spread in continental France (28 sites in the Var department) and in Corsica (4 sites). We also genotyped at nine microsatellite loci insects from 3 locations in the Var department over 3 years (2008, 2010 and 2012) and from 6 locations in Corsica over 4 years (2002, 2008, 2010 and 2012). Entomological surveys confirmed the establishment of C. imicola populations in Var department, but indicated low abundances and no apparent expansion there within the studied period. Higher population abundances were recorded in Corsica. Our genetic data suggested the absence of spatio-temporal genetic changes within each region but a significant increase of the genetic differentiation between Corsican and Var populations through time. The lack of intra-region population structure may result from strong gene flow among populations. We discussed the observed temporal variation between Corsica and Var as being the result of genetic drift following introduction, and/or the genetic characteristics of populations at their range edge. Our results suggest that local range expansion of C. imicola in continental France may be slowed by the low population abundances and unsuitable climatic and environmental conditions.

Allometric and temporal scaling of movement characteristics in Galapagos tortoises

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Yackulic, Charles B.; Frair, Jacqueline L.; Cabrera, Freddy; Blake, Stephen

2016-01-01

Understanding how individual movement scales with body size is of fundamental importance in predicting ecological relationships for diverse species. One-dimensional movement metrics scale consistently with body size yet vary over different temporal scales. Knowing how temporal scale influences the relationship between animal body size and movement would better inform hypotheses about the efficiency of foraging behaviour, the ontogeny of energy budgets, and numerous life-history trade-offs.We investigated how the temporal scaling of allometric patterns in movement varies over the course of a year, specifically during periods of motivated (directional and fast movement) and unmotivated (stationary and tortuous movement) behaviour. We focused on a recently diverged group of species that displays wide variation in movement behaviour – giant Galapagos tortoises (Chelonoidis spp.) – to test how movement metrics estimated on a monthly basis scaled with body size.We used state-space modelling to estimate seven different movement metrics of Galapagos tortoises. We used log-log regression of the power law to evaluate allometric scaling for these movement metrics and contrasted relationships by species and sex.Allometric scaling of movement was more apparent during motivated periods of movement. During this period, allometry was revealed at multiple temporal intervals (hourly, daily and monthly), with values observed at daily and monthly intervals corresponding most closely to the expected one-fourth scaling coefficient, albeit with wide credible intervals. We further detected differences in the magnitude of scaling among taxa uncoupled from observed differences in the temporal structuring of their movement rates.Our results indicate that the definition of temporal scales is fundamental to the detection of allometry of movement and should be given more attention in movement studies. Our approach not only provides new conceptual insights into temporal attributes in one-dimensional scaling of movement, but also generates valuable insights into the movement ecology of iconic yet poorly understood Galapagos giant tortoises.

Allometric and temporal scaling of movement characteristics in Galapagos tortoises.

PubMed

Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Yackulic, Charles B; Frair, Jacqueline L; Cabrera, Freddy; Blake, Stephen

2016-09-01

Understanding how individual movement scales with body size is of fundamental importance in predicting ecological relationships for diverse species. One-dimensional movement metrics scale consistently with body size yet vary over different temporal scales. Knowing how temporal scale influences the relationship between animal body size and movement would better inform hypotheses about the efficiency of foraging behaviour, the ontogeny of energy budgets, and numerous life-history trade-offs. We investigated how the temporal scaling of allometric patterns in movement varies over the course of a year, specifically during periods of motivated (directional and fast movement) and unmotivated (stationary and tortuous movement) behaviour. We focused on a recently diverged group of species that displays wide variation in movement behaviour - giant Galapagos tortoises (Chelonoidis spp.) - to test how movement metrics estimated on a monthly basis scaled with body size. We used state-space modelling to estimate seven different movement metrics of Galapagos tortoises. We used log-log regression of the power law to evaluate allometric scaling for these movement metrics and contrasted relationships by species and sex. Allometric scaling of movement was more apparent during motivated periods of movement. During this period, allometry was revealed at multiple temporal intervals (hourly, daily and monthly), with values observed at daily and monthly intervals corresponding most closely to the expected one-fourth scaling coefficient, albeit with wide credible intervals. We further detected differences in the magnitude of scaling among taxa uncoupled from observed differences in the temporal structuring of their movement rates. Our results indicate that the definition of temporal scales is fundamental to the detection of allometry of movement and should be given more attention in movement studies. Our approach not only provides new conceptual insights into temporal attributes in one-dimensional scaling of movement, but also generates valuable insights into the movement ecology of iconic yet poorly understood Galapagos giant tortoises. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2016 British Ecological Society.

Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations

PubMed Central

Condon, Robert H.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Pitt, Kylie A.; Robinson, Kelly L.; Lucas, Cathy H.; Sutherland, Kelly R.; Mianzan, Hermes W.; Bogeberg, Molly; Purcell, Jennifer E.; Decker, Mary Beth; Uye, Shin-ichi; Madin, Laurence P.; Brodeur, Richard D.; Haddock, Steven H. D.; Malej, Alenka; Parry, Gregory D.; Eriksen, Elena; Quiñones, Javier; Acha, Marcelo; Harvey, Michel; Arthur, James M.; Graham, William M.

2013-01-01

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face. PMID:23277544

Efficient transformation of an auditory population code in a small sensory system.

PubMed

Clemens, Jan; Kutzki, Olaf; Ronacher, Bernhard; Schreiber, Susanne; Wohlgemuth, Sandra

2011-08-16

Optimal coding principles are implemented in many large sensory systems. They include the systematic transformation of external stimuli into a sparse and decorrelated neuronal representation, enabling a flexible readout of stimulus properties. Are these principles also applicable to size-constrained systems, which have to rely on a limited number of neurons and may only have to fulfill specific and restricted tasks? We studied this question in an insect system--the early auditory pathway of grasshoppers. Grasshoppers use genetically fixed songs to recognize mates. The first steps of neural processing of songs take place in a small three-layer feed-forward network comprising only a few dozen neurons. We analyzed the transformation of the neural code within this network. Indeed, grasshoppers create a decorrelated and sparse representation, in accordance with optimal coding theory. Whereas the neuronal input layer is best read out as a summed population, a labeled-line population code for temporal features of the song is established after only two processing steps. At this stage, information about song identity is maximal for a population decoder that preserves neuronal identity. We conclude that optimal coding principles do apply to the early auditory system of the grasshopper, despite its size constraints. The inputs, however, are not encoded in a systematic, map-like fashion as in many larger sensory systems. Already at its periphery, part of the grasshopper auditory system seems to focus on behaviorally relevant features, and is in this property more reminiscent of higher sensory areas in vertebrates.

Large-scale climate variation modifies the winter grouping behavior of endangered Indiana bats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; McKann, Patrick C.

2014-01-01

Power laws describe the functional relationship between 2 quantities, such as the frequency of a group as the multiplicative power of group size. We examined whether the annual size of well-surveyed wintering populations of endangered Indiana bats (Myotis sodalis) followed a power law, and then leveraged this relationship to predict whether the aggregation of Indiana bats in winter was influenced by global climate processes. We determined that Indiana bat wintering populations were distributed according to a power law (mean scaling coefficient α = −0.44 [95% confidence interval {95% CI} = −0.61, −0.28). The antilog of these annual scaling coefficients ranged between 0.67 and 0.81, coincident with the three-fourths power found in many other biological phenomena. We associated temporal patterns in the annual (1983–2011) scaling coefficient with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index in August (βNAOAugust = −0.017 [90% CI = −0.032, −0.002]), when Indiana bats are deciding when and where to hibernate. After accounting for the strong effect of philopatry to habitual wintering locations, Indiana bats aggregated in larger wintering populations during periods of severe winter and in smaller populations in milder winters. The association with August values of the NAO indicates that bats anticipate future winter weather conditions when deciding where to roost, a heretofore unrecognized role for prehibernation swarming behavior. Future research is needed to understand whether the three-fourths–scaling patterns we observed are related to scaling in metabolism.

Long‐term trends in fall age ratios of black brant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ward, David H.; Amundson, Courtney L.; Stehn, Robert A.; Dau, Christian P.

2018-01-01

Accurate estimates of the age composition of populations can inform past reproductive success and future population trajectories. We examined fall age ratios (juveniles:total birds) of black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans; brant) staging at Izembek National Wildlife Refuge near the tip of the Alaska Peninsula, southwest Alaska, USA, 1963 to 2015. We also investigated variation in fall age ratios associated with sampling location, an index of flock size, survey effort, day of season, observer, survey platform (boat‐ or land‐based) and tide stage. We analyzed data using logistic regression models implemented in a Bayesian framework. Mean predicted fall age ratio controlling for survey effort, day of year, and temporal and spatial variation was 0.24 (95% CL = 0.23, 0.25). Overall trend in age ratios was −0.6% per year (95% CL = −1.3%, 0.2%), resulting in an approximate 26% decline in the proportion of juveniles over the study period. We found evidence for variation across a range of variables implying that juveniles are not randomly distributed in space and time within Izembek Lagoon. Age ratios varied by location within the study area and were highly variable among years. They decreased with the number of birds aged (an index of flock size) and increased throughout September before leveling off in early October and declining in late October. Age ratios were similar among tide stages and observers and were lower during boat‐based (offshore) than land‐based (nearshore) surveys. Our results indicate surveys should be conducted annually during early to mid‐October to ensure the entire population is present and available for sampling, and throughout Izembek Lagoon to account for spatiotemporal variation in age ratios. Sampling should include a wide range of flock sizes representative of their distribution and occur in flocks located near and off shore. Further research evaluating the cause of declining age ratios in the fall population is necessary to inform management and predict long‐term population dynamics of brant.

Using Matrix and Tensor Factorizations for the Single-Trial Analysis of Population Spike Trains.

PubMed

Onken, Arno; Liu, Jian K; Karunasekara, P P Chamanthi R; Delis, Ioannis; Gollisch, Tim; Panzeri, Stefano

2016-11-01

Advances in neuronal recording techniques are leading to ever larger numbers of simultaneously monitored neurons. This poses the important analytical challenge of how to capture compactly all sensory information that neural population codes carry in their spatial dimension (differences in stimulus tuning across neurons at different locations), in their temporal dimension (temporal neural response variations), or in their combination (temporally coordinated neural population firing). Here we investigate the utility of tensor factorizations of population spike trains along space and time. These factorizations decompose a dataset of single-trial population spike trains into spatial firing patterns (combinations of neurons firing together), temporal firing patterns (temporal activation of these groups of neurons) and trial-dependent activation coefficients (strength of recruitment of such neural patterns on each trial). We validated various factorization methods on simulated data and on populations of ganglion cells simultaneously recorded in the salamander retina. We found that single-trial tensor space-by-time decompositions provided low-dimensional data-robust representations of spike trains that capture efficiently both their spatial and temporal information about sensory stimuli. Tensor decompositions with orthogonality constraints were the most efficient in extracting sensory information, whereas non-negative tensor decompositions worked well even on non-independent and overlapping spike patterns, and retrieved informative firing patterns expressed by the same population in response to novel stimuli. Our method showed that populations of retinal ganglion cells carried information in their spike timing on the ten-milliseconds-scale about spatial details of natural images. This information could not be recovered from the spike counts of these cells. First-spike latencies carried the majority of information provided by the whole spike train about fine-scale image features, and supplied almost as much information about coarse natural image features as firing rates. Together, these results highlight the importance of spike timing, and particularly of first-spike latencies, in retinal coding.

Using Matrix and Tensor Factorizations for the Single-Trial Analysis of Population Spike Trains

PubMed Central

Onken, Arno; Liu, Jian K.; Karunasekara, P. P. Chamanthi R.; Delis, Ioannis; Gollisch, Tim; Panzeri, Stefano

2016-01-01

Advances in neuronal recording techniques are leading to ever larger numbers of simultaneously monitored neurons. This poses the important analytical challenge of how to capture compactly all sensory information that neural population codes carry in their spatial dimension (differences in stimulus tuning across neurons at different locations), in their temporal dimension (temporal neural response variations), or in their combination (temporally coordinated neural population firing). Here we investigate the utility of tensor factorizations of population spike trains along space and time. These factorizations decompose a dataset of single-trial population spike trains into spatial firing patterns (combinations of neurons firing together), temporal firing patterns (temporal activation of these groups of neurons) and trial-dependent activation coefficients (strength of recruitment of such neural patterns on each trial). We validated various factorization methods on simulated data and on populations of ganglion cells simultaneously recorded in the salamander retina. We found that single-trial tensor space-by-time decompositions provided low-dimensional data-robust representations of spike trains that capture efficiently both their spatial and temporal information about sensory stimuli. Tensor decompositions with orthogonality constraints were the most efficient in extracting sensory information, whereas non-negative tensor decompositions worked well even on non-independent and overlapping spike patterns, and retrieved informative firing patterns expressed by the same population in response to novel stimuli. Our method showed that populations of retinal ganglion cells carried information in their spike timing on the ten-milliseconds-scale about spatial details of natural images. This information could not be recovered from the spike counts of these cells. First-spike latencies carried the majority of information provided by the whole spike train about fine-scale image features, and supplied almost as much information about coarse natural image features as firing rates. Together, these results highlight the importance of spike timing, and particularly of first-spike latencies, in retinal coding. PMID:27814363

Multi-scale approaches for high-speed imaging and analysis of large neural populations

PubMed Central

Ahrens, Misha B.; Yuste, Rafael; Peterka, Darcy S.; Paninski, Liam

2017-01-01

Progress in modern neuroscience critically depends on our ability to observe the activity of large neuronal populations with cellular spatial and high temporal resolution. However, two bottlenecks constrain efforts towards fast imaging of large populations. First, the resulting large video data is challenging to analyze. Second, there is an explicit tradeoff between imaging speed, signal-to-noise, and field of view: with current recording technology we cannot image very large neuronal populations with simultaneously high spatial and temporal resolution. Here we describe multi-scale approaches for alleviating both of these bottlenecks. First, we show that spatial and temporal decimation techniques based on simple local averaging provide order-of-magnitude speedups in spatiotemporally demixing calcium video data into estimates of single-cell neural activity. Second, once the shapes of individual neurons have been identified at fine scale (e.g., after an initial phase of conventional imaging with standard temporal and spatial resolution), we find that the spatial/temporal resolution tradeoff shifts dramatically: after demixing we can accurately recover denoised fluorescence traces and deconvolved neural activity of each individual neuron from coarse scale data that has been spatially decimated by an order of magnitude. This offers a cheap method for compressing this large video data, and also implies that it is possible to either speed up imaging significantly, or to “zoom out” by a corresponding factor to image order-of-magnitude larger neuronal populations with minimal loss in accuracy or temporal resolution. PMID:28771570

Variability in age and size at maturation, reproductive longevity, and long-term growth dynamics for Kemp's ridley sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico

PubMed Central

Goshe, Lisa R.; Coggins, Lewis; Shaver, Donna J.; Higgins, Ben; Landry, Andre M.; Bailey, Rhonda

2017-01-01

Effective management of protected sea turtle populations requires knowledge not only of mean values for demographic and life-history parameters, but also temporal and spatial trends, variability, and underlying causes. For endangered Kemp’s ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii), the need for baseline information of this type has been emphasized during attempts to understand causes underlying the recent truncation in the recovery trajectory for nesting females. To provide insight into variability in age and size at sexual maturation (ASM and SSM) and long-term growth patterns likely to influence population trends, we conducted skeletochronological analysis of humerus bones from 333 Kemp’s ridleys stranded throughout the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) from 1993 to 2010. Ranges of possible ASMs (6.8 to 21.8 yr) and SSMs (53.3 to 68.3 cm straightline carapace length (SCL)) estimated using the “rapprochement” skeletal growth mark associated with maturation were broad, supporting incorporation of a maturation schedule in Kemp’s ridley population models. Mean ASMs estimated from rapprochement and by fitting logistic, generalized additive mixed, and von Bertalanffy growth models to age and growth data ranged from 11 to 13 yr; confidence intervals for the logistic model predicted maturation of 95% of the population between 11.9 and 14.8 yr. Early juvenile somatic growth rates in the GOM were greater than those previously reported for the Atlantic, indicating potential for differences in maturation trajectories between regions. Finally, long-term, significant decreases in somatic growth response were found for both juveniles and adults, which could influence recruitment to the reproductive population and observed nesting population trends. PMID:28333937

Variability in age and size at maturation, reproductive longevity, and long-term growth dynamics for Kemp's ridley sea turtles in the Gulf of Mexico.

PubMed

Avens, Larisa; Goshe, Lisa R; Coggins, Lewis; Shaver, Donna J; Higgins, Ben; Landry, Andre M; Bailey, Rhonda

2017-01-01

Effective management of protected sea turtle populations requires knowledge not only of mean values for demographic and life-history parameters, but also temporal and spatial trends, variability, and underlying causes. For endangered Kemp's ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempii), the need for baseline information of this type has been emphasized during attempts to understand causes underlying the recent truncation in the recovery trajectory for nesting females. To provide insight into variability in age and size at sexual maturation (ASM and SSM) and long-term growth patterns likely to influence population trends, we conducted skeletochronological analysis of humerus bones from 333 Kemp's ridleys stranded throughout the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) from 1993 to 2010. Ranges of possible ASMs (6.8 to 21.8 yr) and SSMs (53.3 to 68.3 cm straightline carapace length (SCL)) estimated using the "rapprochement" skeletal growth mark associated with maturation were broad, supporting incorporation of a maturation schedule in Kemp's ridley population models. Mean ASMs estimated from rapprochement and by fitting logistic, generalized additive mixed, and von Bertalanffy growth models to age and growth data ranged from 11 to 13 yr; confidence intervals for the logistic model predicted maturation of 95% of the population between 11.9 and 14.8 yr. Early juvenile somatic growth rates in the GOM were greater than those previously reported for the Atlantic, indicating potential for differences in maturation trajectories between regions. Finally, long-term, significant decreases in somatic growth response were found for both juveniles and adults, which could influence recruitment to the reproductive population and observed nesting population trends.

Microfluidic local perfusion chambers for the visualization and manipulation of synapses

PubMed Central

Taylor, Anne M.; Dieterich, Daniela C.; Ito, Hiroshi T.; Kim, Sally A.; Schuman, Erin M.

2010-01-01

Summary The polarized nature of neurons as well as the size and density of synapses complicates the manipulation and visualization of cell biological processes that control synaptic function. Here we developed a microfluidic local perfusion (μLP) chamber to access and manipulate synaptic regions and pre- and post-synaptic compartments in vitro. This chamber directs the formation of synapses in >100 parallel rows connecting separate neuron populations. A perfusion channel transects the parallel rows allowing access to synaptic regions with high spatial and temporal resolution. We used this chamber to investigate synapse-to-nucleus signaling. Using the calcium indicator dye, Fluo-4, we measured changes in calcium at dendrites and somata, following local perfusion of glutamate. Exploiting the high temporal resolution of the chamber, we exposed synapses to “spaced” or “massed” application of glutamate and then examined levels of pCREB in somata. Lastly, we applied the metabotropic receptor agonist, DHPG, to dendrites and observed increases in Arc transcription and Arc transcript localization. PMID:20399729

Asynchrony among local communities stabilises ecosystem function of metacommunities.

PubMed

Wilcox, Kevin R; Tredennick, Andrew T; Koerner, Sally E; Grman, Emily; Hallett, Lauren M; Avolio, Meghan L; La Pierre, Kimberly J; Houseman, Gregory R; Isbell, Forest; Johnson, David Samuel; Alatalo, Juha M; Baldwin, Andrew H; Bork, Edward W; Boughton, Elizabeth H; Bowman, William D; Britton, Andrea J; Cahill, James F; Collins, Scott L; Du, Guozhen; Eskelinen, Anu; Gough, Laura; Jentsch, Anke; Kern, Christel; Klanderud, Kari; Knapp, Alan K; Kreyling, Juergen; Luo, Yiqi; McLaren, Jennie R; Megonigal, Patrick; Onipchenko, Vladimir; Prevéy, Janet; Price, Jodi N; Robinson, Clare H; Sala, Osvaldo E; Smith, Melinda D; Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A; Souza, Lara; Tilman, David; White, Shannon R; Xu, Zhuwen; Yahdjian, Laura; Yu, Qiang; Zhang, Pengfei; Zhang, Yunhai

2017-12-01

Temporal stability of ecosystem functioning increases the predictability and reliability of ecosystem services, and understanding the drivers of stability across spatial scales is important for land management and policy decisions. We used species-level abundance data from 62 plant communities across five continents to assess mechanisms of temporal stability across spatial scales. We assessed how asynchrony (i.e. different units responding dissimilarly through time) of species and local communities stabilised metacommunity ecosystem function. Asynchrony of species increased stability of local communities, and asynchrony among local communities enhanced metacommunity stability by a wide range of magnitudes (1-315%); this range was positively correlated with the size of the metacommunity. Additionally, asynchronous responses among local communities were linked with species' populations fluctuating asynchronously across space, perhaps stemming from physical and/or competitive differences among local communities. Accordingly, we suggest spatial heterogeneity should be a major focus for maintaining the stability of ecosystem services at larger spatial scales. © 2017 The Authors. Ecology Letters published by CNRS and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Inferences about ungulate population dynamics derived from age ratios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harris, N.C.; Kauffman, M.J.; Mills, L.S.

2008-01-01

Age ratios (e.g., calf:cow for elk and fawn:doe for deer) are used regularly to monitor ungulate populations. However, it remains unclear what inferences are appropriate from this index because multiple vital rate changes can influence the observed ratio. We used modeling based on elk (Cervus elaphus) life-history to evaluate both how age ratios are influenced by stage-specific fecundity and survival and how well age ratios track population dynamics. Although all vital rates have the potential to influence calf:adult female ratios (i.e., calf:xow ratios), calf survival explained the vast majority of variation in calf:adult female ratios due to its temporal variation compared to other vital rates. Calf:adult female ratios were positively correlated with population growth rate (??) and often successfully indicated population trajectories. However, calf:adult female ratios performed poorly at detecting imposed declines in calf survival, suggesting that only the most severe declines would be rapidly detected. Our analyses clarify that managers can use accurate, unbiased age ratios to monitor arguably the most important components contributing to sustainable ungulate populations, survival rate of young and ??. However, age ratios are not useful for detecting gradual declines in survival of young or making inferences about fecundity or adult survival in ungulate populations. Therefore, age ratios coupled with independent estimates of population growth or population size are necessary to monitor ungulate population demography and dynamics closely through time.

Temporal Genetic Dynamics of an Invasive Species, Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), in an Early Phase of Establishment

PubMed Central

Yang, Xian-Ming; Lou, Heng; Sun, Jing-Tao; Zhu, Yi-Ming; Xue, Xiao-Feng; Hong, Xiao-Yue

2015-01-01

Many species can successfully colonize new areas despite their propagules having low genetic variation. We assessed whether the decreased genetic diversity could result in temporal fluctuations of genetic parameters of the new populations of an invasive species, western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis, using mitochondrial and microsatellite markers. This study was conducted in eight localities from four climate regions in China, where F. occidentalis was introduced in the year 2000 and had lower genetic diversity than its native populations. We also tested the level of genetic differentiation in these introduced populations. The genetic diversity of the samples at different years in the same locality was not significantly different from each other in most localities. FST and STRUCTURE analysis also showed that most temporal population comparisons from the same sites were not significantly differentiated. Our results showed that the invasive populations of F. occidentalis in China can maintain temporal stability in genetic composition at an early phase of establishment despite having lower genetic diversity than in their native range. PMID:26138760

Climate change and body size trends in aquatic and terrestrial endotherms: Does habitat matter?

PubMed

Naya, Daniel E; Naya, Hugo; Cook, Joseph

2017-01-01

Several studies have claimed that reduction in body size comprises a nearly universal response to global warming; however, doubts about the validity of this pattern for endothermic species have been raised recently. Accordingly, we assessed temporal changes in body mass for 27 bird and 17 mammal species, to evaluate if a reduction in body size during the 20th century is a widespread phenomenon among endothermic vertebrates. In addition, we tested if there are differences in the temporal change in size between birds and mammals, aquatic and terrestrial species, and the first and second half of the 20th century. Overall, six species increased their body mass, 21 species showed no significant changes in size, and 17 species decreased their body mass during the 20th century. Temporal changes in body mass were similar for birds and mammals, but strongly differ between aquatic and terrestrial species: while most of the aquatic species increased or did not change in body mass, most terrestrial species decreased in size. In addition, we found that, at least in terrestrial birds, the mean value of the correlation between body mass and year of collection differs between the first half and the second half of the 20th century, being close to zero for the former period but negative for the later one. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing that temporal changes in body mass differ between aquatic and terrestrial species in both mammals and birds.

Climate change and body size trends in aquatic and terrestrial endotherms: Does habitat matter?

PubMed Central

Naya, Hugo; Cook, Joseph

2017-01-01

Several studies have claimed that reduction in body size comprises a nearly universal response to global warming; however, doubts about the validity of this pattern for endothermic species have been raised recently. Accordingly, we assessed temporal changes in body mass for 27 bird and 17 mammal species, to evaluate if a reduction in body size during the 20th century is a widespread phenomenon among endothermic vertebrates. In addition, we tested if there are differences in the temporal change in size between birds and mammals, aquatic and terrestrial species, and the first and second half of the 20th century. Overall, six species increased their body mass, 21 species showed no significant changes in size, and 17 species decreased their body mass during the 20th century. Temporal changes in body mass were similar for birds and mammals, but strongly differ between aquatic and terrestrial species: while most of the aquatic species increased or did not change in body mass, most terrestrial species decreased in size. In addition, we found that, at least in terrestrial birds, the mean value of the correlation between body mass and year of collection differs between the first half and the second half of the 20th century, being close to zero for the former period but negative for the later one. To our knowledge, this is the first study showing that temporal changes in body mass differ between aquatic and terrestrial species in both mammals and birds. PMID:28813491

Natural stimulation of the nonclassical receptive field increases information transmission efficiency in V1.

PubMed

Vinje, William E; Gallant, Jack L

2002-04-01

We have investigated how the nonclassical receptive field (nCRF) affects information transmission by V1 neurons during simulated natural vision in awake, behaving macaques. Stimuli were centered over the classical receptive field (CRF) and stimulus size was varied from one to four times the diameter of the CRF. Stimulus movies reproduced the spatial and temporal stimulus dynamics of natural vision while maintaining constant CRF stimulation across all sizes. In individual neurons, stimulation of the nCRF significantly increases the information rate, the information per spike, and the efficiency of information transmission. Furthermore, the population averages of these quantities also increase significantly with nCRF stimulation. These data demonstrate that the nCRF increases the sparseness of the stimulus representation in V1, suggesting that the nCRF tunes V1 neurons to match the highly informative components of the natural world.

Toward a theory of punctuated subsistence change.

PubMed

Ullah, Isaac I T; Kuijt, Ian; Freeman, Jacob

2015-08-04

Discourse on the origins and spread of domesticated species focuses on universal causal explanations or unique regional or temporal trajectories. Despite new data as to the context and physical processes of early domestication, researchers still do not understand the types of system-level reorganizations required to transition from foraging to farming. Drawing upon dynamical systems theory and the concepts of attractors and repellors, we develop an understanding of subsistence transition and a description of variation in, and emergence of, human subsistence systems. The overlooked role of attractors and repellors in these systems helps explain why the origins of agriculture occurred quickly in some times and places, but slowly in others. A deeper understanding of the interactions of a limited set of variables that control the size of attractors (a proxy for resilience), such as population size, number of dry months, net primary productivity, and settlement fixity, provides new insights into the origin and spread of domesticated species in human economies.

Complex spatial dynamics maintain northern leopard frog (Lithobates pipiens) genetic diversity in a temporally varying landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mushet, David M.; Euliss, Ned H.; Chen, Yongjiu; Stockwell, Craig A.

2013-01-01

In contrast to most local amphibian populations, northeastern populations of the Northern Leopard Frog (Lithobates pipiens) have displayed uncharacteristically high levels of genetic diversity that have been attributed to large, stable populations. However, this widely distributed species also occurs in areas known for great climatic fluctuations that should be reflected in corresponding fluctuations in population sizes and reduced genetic diversity. To test our hypothesis that Northern Leopard Frog genetic diversity would be reduced in areas subjected to significant climate variability, we examined the genetic diversity of L. pipiens collected from 12 sites within the Prairie Pothole Region of North Dakota. Despite the region's fluctuating climate that includes periods of recurring drought and deluge, we found unexpectedly high levels of genetic diversity approaching that of northeastern populations. Further, genetic structure at a landscape scale was strikingly homogeneous; genetic differentiation estimates (Dest) averaged 0.10 (SD = 0.036) across the six microsatellite loci we studied, and two Bayesian assignment tests (STRUCTURE and BAPS) failed to reveal the development of significant population structure across the 68 km breadth of our study area. These results suggest that L. pipiens in the Prairie Pothole Region consists of a large, panmictic population capable of maintaining high genetic diversity in the face of marked climate variability.

Unrelenting spread of the alien monk parakeet Myiopsitta monachus in Israel. Is it time to sound the alarm?

PubMed

Postigo, Jose-Luis; Shwartz, Assaf; Strubbe, Diederik; Muñoz, Antonio-Román

2017-02-01

Monk parakeets, Myiopsitta monachus Boddaert, are native to South America but have established populations in North America, Europe, Africa and Asia. They are claimed to act as agricultural pests in their native range, and their communal stick nests may damage human infrastructure. Although several monk parakeet populations are present in the Mediterranean Basin and temperate Europe, little empirical data are available on their population size and growth, distribution and potential impact. We investigated the temporal and spatial dynamics of monk parakeets in Israel to assess their invasion success and potential impact on agriculture. Monk parakeet populations are growing exponentially at a higher rate than that reported elsewhere. The current Israeli population of monk parakeets comprises approximately 1500 individuals. The distribution of the species has increased and shifted from predominantly urban areas to agricultural landscapes. In Israel, monk parakeet populations are growing fast and have dispersed rapidly from cities to agricultural areas. At present, reports of agricultural damage are scarce. A complete assessment of possible management strategies is urgently needed before the population becomes too large and widespread to allow for cost-effective mitigation campaigns to be implemented. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Genetic variation facilitates seedling establishment but not population growth rate of a perennial invader.

PubMed

Li, Shou-Li; Vasemägi, Anti; Ramula, Satu

2016-01-01

Assessing the demographic consequences of genetic variation is fundamental to invasion biology. However, genetic and demographic approaches are rarely combined to explore the effects of genetic variation on invasive populations in natural environments. This study combined population genetics, demographic data and a greenhouse experiment to investigate the consequences of genetic variation for the population fitness of the perennial, invasive herb Lupinus polyphyllus. Genetic and demographic data were collected from 37 L. polyphyllus populations representing different latitudes in Finland, and genetic variation was characterized based on 13 microsatellite loci. Associations between genetic variation and population size, population density, latitude and habitat were investigated. Genetic variation was then explored in relation to four fitness components (establishment, survival, growth, fecundity) measured at the population level, and the long-term population growth rate (λ). For a subset of populations genetic variation was also examined in relation to the temporal variability of λ. A further assessment was made of the role of natural selection in the observed variation of certain fitness components among populations under greenhouse conditions. It was found that genetic variation correlated positively with population size, particularly at higher latitudes, and differed among habitat types. Average seedling establishment per population increased with genetic variation in the field, but not under greenhouse conditions. Quantitative genetic divergence (Q(ST)) based on seedling establishment in the greenhouse was smaller than allelic genetic divergence (F'(ST)), indicating that unifying selection has a prominent role in this fitness component. Genetic variation was not associated with average survival, growth or fecundity measured at the population level, λ or its variability. The study suggests that although genetic variation may facilitate plant invasions by increasing seedling establishment, it may not necessarily affect the long-term population growth rate. Therefore, established invasions may be able to grow equally well regardless of their genetic diversity. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Spatio-Temporal Variation in Predation by Urban Domestic Cats (Felis catus) and the Acceptability of Possible Management Actions in the UK

PubMed Central

Thomas, Rebecca L.; Fellowes, Mark D. E.; Baker, Philip J.

2012-01-01

Urban domestic cat (Felis catus) populations can attain exceedingly high densities and are not limited by natural prey availability. This has generated concerns that they may negatively affect prey populations, leading to calls for management. We enlisted cat-owners to record prey returned home to estimate patterns of predation by free-roaming pets in different localities within the town of Reading, UK and questionnaire surveys were used to quantify attitudes to different possible management strategies. Prey return rates were highly variable: only 20% of cats returned ≥4 dead prey annually. Consequently, approximately 65% of owners received no prey in a given season, but this declined to 22% after eight seasons. The estimated mean predation rate was 18.3 prey cat−1 year−1 but this varied markedly both spatially and temporally: per capita predation rates declined with increasing cat density. Comparisons with estimates of the density of six common bird prey species indicated that cats killed numbers equivalent to adult density on c. 39% of occasions. Population modeling studies suggest that such predation rates could significantly reduce the size of local bird populations for common urban species. Conversely, most urban residents did not consider cat predation to be a significant problem. Collar-mounted anti-predation devices were the only management action acceptable to the majority of urban residents (65%), but were less acceptable to cat-owners because of perceived risks to their pets; only 24% of cats were fitted with such devices. Overall, cat predation did appear to be of sufficient magnitude to affect some prey populations, although further investigation of some key aspects of cat predation is warranted. Management of the predation behavior of urban cat populations in the UK is likely to be challenging and achieving this would require considerable engagement with cat owners. PMID:23173057

A guide to calculating habitat-quality metrics to inform conservation of highly mobile species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bieri, Joanna A.; Sample, Christine; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Earl, Julia E.; Erickson, Richard A.; Federico, Paula; Flockhart, D. T. Tyler; Nicol, Sam; Semmens, Darius J.; Skraber, T.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Mattsson, Brady J.

2018-01-01

Many metrics exist for quantifying the relative value of habitats and pathways used by highly mobile species. Properly selecting and applying such metrics requires substantial background in mathematics and understanding the relevant management arena. To address this multidimensional challenge, we demonstrate and compare three measurements of habitat quality: graph-, occupancy-, and demographic-based metrics. Each metric provides insights into system dynamics, at the expense of increasing amounts and complexity of data and models. Our descriptions and comparisons of diverse habitat-quality metrics provide means for practitioners to overcome the modeling challenges associated with management or conservation of such highly mobile species. Whereas previous guidance for applying habitat-quality metrics has been scattered in diversified tracks of literature, we have brought this information together into an approachable format including accessible descriptions and a modeling case study for a typical example that conservation professionals can adapt for their own decision contexts and focal populations.Considerations for Resource ManagersManagement objectives, proposed actions, data availability and quality, and model assumptions are all relevant considerations when applying and interpreting habitat-quality metrics.Graph-based metrics answer questions related to habitat centrality and connectivity, are suitable for populations with any movement pattern, quantify basic spatial and temporal patterns of occupancy and movement, and require the least data.Occupancy-based metrics answer questions about likelihood of persistence or colonization, are suitable for populations that undergo localized extinctions, quantify spatial and temporal patterns of occupancy and movement, and require a moderate amount of data.Demographic-based metrics answer questions about relative or absolute population size, are suitable for populations with any movement pattern, quantify demographic processes and population dynamics, and require the most data.More real-world examples applying occupancy-based, agent-based, and continuous-based metrics to seasonally migratory species are needed to better understand challenges and opportunities for applying these metrics more broadly.

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity—a major outcome of ecosystem functions—on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. PMID:27053739

Variability in primary productivity determines metapopulation dynamics.

PubMed

Fernández, Néstor; Román, Jacinto; Delibes, Miguel

2016-04-13

Temporal variability in primary productivity can change habitat quality for consumer species by affecting the energy levels available as food resources. However, it remains unclear how habitat-quality fluctuations may determine the dynamics of spatially structured populations, where the effects of habitat size, quality and isolation have been customarily assessed assuming static habitats. We present the first empirical evaluation on the effects of stochastic fluctuations in primary productivity--a major outcome of ecosystem functions--on the metapopulation dynamics of a primary consumer. A unique 13-year dataset from an herbivore rodent was used to test the hypothesis that inter-annual variations in primary productivity determine spatiotemporal habitat occupancy patterns and colonization and extinction processes. Inter-annual variability in productivity and in the growing season phenology significantly influenced habitat colonization patterns and occupancy dynamics. These effects lead to changes in connectivity to other potentially occupied habitat patches, which then feed back into occupancy dynamics. According to the results, the dynamics of primary productivity accounted for more than 50% of the variation in occupancy probability, depending on patch size and landscape configuration. Evidence connecting primary productivity dynamics and spatiotemporal population processes has broad implications for metapopulation persistence in fluctuating and changing environments. © 2016 The Authors.

A unified approach to the study of temporal, correlational, and rate coding.

PubMed

Panzeri, S; Schultz, S R

2001-06-01

We demonstrate that the information contained in the spike occurrence times of a population of neurons can be broken up into a series of terms, each reflecting something about potential coding mechanisms. This is possible in the coding regime in which few spikes are emitted in the relevant time window. This approach allows us to study the additional information contributed by spike timing beyond that present in the spike counts and to examine the contributions to the whole information of different statistical properties of spike trains, such as firing rates and correlation functions. It thus forms the basis for a new quantitative procedure for analyzing simultaneous multiple neuron recordings and provides theoretical constraints on neural coding strategies. We find a transition between two coding regimes, depending on the size of the relevant observation timescale. For time windows shorter than the timescale of the stimulus-induced response fluctuations, there exists a spike count coding phase, in which the purely temporal information is of third order in time. For time windows much longer than the characteristic timescale, there can be additional timing information of first order, leading to a temporal coding phase in which timing information may affect the instantaneous information rate. In this new framework, we study the relative contributions of the dynamic firing rate and correlation variables to the full temporal information, the interaction of signal and noise correlations in temporal coding, synergy between spikes and between cells, and the effect of refractoriness. We illustrate the utility of the technique by analyzing a few cells from the rat barrel cortex.

Sampling designs for contaminant temporal trend analyses using sedentary species exemplified by the snails Bellamya aeruginosa and Viviparus viviparus.

PubMed

Yin, Ge; Danielsson, Sara; Dahlberg, Anna-Karin; Zhou, Yihui; Qiu, Yanling; Nyberg, Elisabeth; Bignert, Anders

2017-10-01

Environmental monitoring typically assumes samples and sampling activities to be representative of the population being studied. Given a limited budget, an appropriate sampling strategy is essential to support detecting temporal trends of contaminants. In the present study, based on real chemical analysis data on polybrominated diphenyl ethers in snails collected from five subsites in Tianmu Lake, computer simulation is performed to evaluate three sampling strategies by the estimation of required sample size, to reach a detection of an annual change of 5% with a statistical power of 80% and 90% with a significant level of 5%. The results showed that sampling from an arbitrarily selected sampling spot is the worst strategy, requiring much more individual analyses to achieve the above mentioned criteria compared with the other two approaches. A fixed sampling site requires the lowest sample size but may not be representative for the intended study object e.g. a lake and is also sensitive to changes of that particular sampling site. In contrast, sampling at multiple sites along the shore each year, and using pooled samples when the cost to collect and prepare individual specimens are much lower than the cost for chemical analysis, would be the most robust and cost efficient strategy in the long run. Using statistical power as criterion, the results demonstrated quantitatively the consequences of various sampling strategies, and could guide users with respect of required sample sizes depending on sampling design for long term monitoring programs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Attention reduces spatial uncertainty in human ventral temporal cortex.

PubMed

Kay, Kendrick N; Weiner, Kevin S; Grill-Spector, Kalanit

2015-03-02

Ventral temporal cortex (VTC) is the latest stage of the ventral "what" visual pathway, which is thought to code the identity of a stimulus regardless of its position or size [1, 2]. Surprisingly, recent studies show that position information can be decoded from VTC [3-5]. However, the computational mechanisms by which spatial information is encoded in VTC are unknown. Furthermore, how attention influences spatial representations in human VTC is also unknown because the effect of attention on spatial representations has only been examined in the dorsal "where" visual pathway [6-10]. Here, we fill these significant gaps in knowledge using an approach that combines functional magnetic resonance imaging and sophisticated computational methods. We first develop a population receptive field (pRF) model [11, 12] of spatial responses in human VTC. Consisting of spatial summation followed by a compressive nonlinearity, this model accurately predicts responses of individual voxels to stimuli at any position and size, explains how spatial information is encoded, and reveals a functional hierarchy in VTC. We then manipulate attention and use our model to decipher the effects of attention. We find that attention to the stimulus systematically and selectively modulates responses in VTC, but not early visual areas. Locally, attention increases eccentricity, size, and gain of individual pRFs, thereby increasing position tolerance. However, globally, these effects reduce uncertainty regarding stimulus location and actually increase position sensitivity of distributed responses across VTC. These results demonstrate that attention actively shapes and enhances spatial representations in the ventral visual pathway. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Attention reduces spatial uncertainty in human ventral temporal cortex

PubMed Central

Kay, Kendrick N.; Weiner, Kevin S.; Grill-Spector, Kalanit

2014-01-01

SUMMARY Ventral temporal cortex (VTC) is the latest stage of the ventral ‘what’ visual pathway, which is thought to code the identity of a stimulus regardless of its position or size [1, 2]. Surprisingly, recent studies show that position information can be decoded from VTC [3–5]. However, the computational mechanisms by which spatial information is encoded in VTC are unknown. Furthermore, how attention influences spatial representations in human VTC is also unknown because the effect of attention on spatial representations has only been examined in the dorsal ‘where’ visual pathway [6–10]. Here we fill these significant gaps in knowledge using an approach that combines functional magnetic resonance imaging and sophisticated computational methods. We first develop a population receptive field (pRF) model [11, 12] of spatial responses in human VTC. Consisting of spatial summation followed by a compressive nonlinearity, this model accurately predicts responses of individual voxels to stimuli at any position and size, explains how spatial information is encoded, and reveals a functional hierarchy in VTC. We then manipulate attention and use our model to decipher the effects of attention. We find that attention to the stimulus systematically and selectively modulates responses in VTC, but not early visual areas. Locally, attention increases eccentricity, size, and gain of individual pRFs, thereby increasing position tolerance. However, globally, these effects reduce uncertainty regarding stimulus location and actually increase position sensitivity of distributed responses across VTC. These results demonstrate that attention actively shapes and enhances spatial representations in the ventral visual pathway. PMID:25702580

Linking body mass and group dynamics in an obligate cooperative breeder.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Bateman, Andrew W; English, Sinead; Coulson, Tim; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

2014-11-01

Social and environmental factors influence key life-history processes and population dynamics by affecting fitness-related phenotypic traits such as body mass. The role of body mass is particularly pronounced in cooperative breeders due to variation in social status and consequent variation in access to resources. Investigating the mechanisms underlying variation in body mass and its demographic consequences can help elucidate how social and environmental factors affect the dynamics of cooperatively breeding populations. In this study, we present an analysis of the effect of individual variation in body mass on the temporal dynamics of group size and structure of a cooperatively breeding mongoose, the Kalahari meerkat, Suricata suricatta. First, we investigate how body mass interacts with social (dominance status and number of helpers) and environmental (rainfall and season) factors to influence key life-history processes (survival, growth, emigration and reproduction) in female meerkats. Next, using an individual-based population model, we show that the models explicitly including individual variation in body mass predict group dynamics better than those ignoring this morphological trait. Body mass influences group dynamics mainly through its effects on helper emigration and dominant reproduction. Rainfall has a trait-mediated, destabilizing effect on group dynamics, whereas the number of helpers has a direct and stabilizing effect. Counteracting effects of number of helpers on different demographic rates, despite generating temporal fluctuations, stabilizes group dynamics in the long term. Our study demonstrates that social and environmental factors interact to produce individual variation in body mass and accounting for this variation helps to explain group dynamics in this cooperatively breeding population. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

What`s normal?: Body condition in Great Lakes herring gulls

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hebert, C.E.; Shutt, J.L.

1994-12-31

The Canadian Wildlife Service`s herring gull (Larus argentatus) surveillance program has demonstrated the usefulness of this species as a monitor of spatial and temporal trends in contaminant levels. However, the effects of environmental contaminants on gulls are difficult to distinguish from the effects of other anthropogenic stressors such as the introduction of exotic species, overfishing and habitat loss. To understand the relative importance of these factors in regulating the success of individual gulls and, hence, gull populations, the authors must first have a better understanding of what constitutes a ``normal`` bird. Improving the ability to differentiate between normal and abnormalmore » birds is crucial in any health assessment of Great Lakes gulls. Body condition has been shown to be an important measure of a bird`s ability to provide energy for egg production, migration etc. Numerous approaches have been used to assess condition, most of which required that the bird be sacrificed. In this study, the authors describe a nonlethal technique to quantify body condition in herring gulls. Multivariate statistics are used to quantify body size, relate body size to total mass and from that, determine relative body condition. Initially, body condition is assessed in gulls from a reference colony where reproductive success is normal and anthropogenic influences are limited. This reference population is then used as a baseline against which other gull populations are compared.« less

Fully Bayesian tests of neutrality using genealogical summary statistics.

PubMed

Drummond, Alexei J; Suchard, Marc A

2008-10-31

Many data summary statistics have been developed to detect departures from neutral expectations of evolutionary models. However questions about the neutrality of the evolution of genetic loci within natural populations remain difficult to assess. One critical cause of this difficulty is that most methods for testing neutrality make simplifying assumptions simultaneously about the mutational model and the population size model. Consequentially, rejecting the null hypothesis of neutrality under these methods could result from violations of either or both assumptions, making interpretation troublesome. Here we harness posterior predictive simulation to exploit summary statistics of both the data and model parameters to test the goodness-of-fit of standard models of evolution. We apply the method to test the selective neutrality of molecular evolution in non-recombining gene genealogies and we demonstrate the utility of our method on four real data sets, identifying significant departures of neutrality in human influenza A virus, even after controlling for variation in population size. Importantly, by employing a full model-based Bayesian analysis, our method separates the effects of demography from the effects of selection. The method also allows multiple summary statistics to be used in concert, thus potentially increasing sensitivity. Furthermore, our method remains useful in situations where analytical expectations and variances of summary statistics are not available. This aspect has great potential for the analysis of temporally spaced data, an expanding area previously ignored for limited availability of theory and methods.

How Guilds Build Success; Aspects of Temporal Resource Partitioning in a Warm, Temperate Climate Assemblage of Dung Beetles (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae).

PubMed

Sullivan, Gregory T; Ozman-Sullivan, Sebahat K; Lumaret, Jean-Pierre; Bourne, Anne; Zeybekoglu, Unal; Zalucki, Myron P; Baxter, Greg

2017-10-01

Succession in local dung beetle assemblages influences their delivery of ecological functions in natural and modified environments globally. Short-term changes in dung beetle (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) species richness, abundance, and biomass were investigated in standardized dung pads in northern, coastal Turkey. For mean tunneling guild abundance, dung deposition time, dung exposure period, and their interaction were significant, and for mean dung dwelling guild abundance, dung exposure period was significant, as was the interaction with dung deposition time, which collectively evidenced temporal resource partitioning, based principally on differences in diel activity. Succession was highly compressed, with maximum abundance at 12 h and maximum species richness at 24 h. A large ball roller and small- to medium-sized tunnelers dominated different periods in the first 24 h but were superseded by dwellers. Regression analysis demonstrated a significant, positive relationship between species richness and the evenness of abundance for both dung deposition times. Correlation analysis generally showed strong, positive correlations between tunneling species, low correlations between tunneling and dwelling species, and low correlations between dwelling species. Niche partitioning based on size difference appears to have acted on the environmental filtering of tunneling species along the temporal gradient of declining moisture, thereby limiting the number of abundant, concurrent species. The aggregation of tunneling species provided opportunities for the less competitive dwelling species to occupy less densely populated zones termed probability refuges. The network of strong, positive habitat' correlations between tunneling species may indicate that their collective functionality is vulnerable to loss of efficiency if species are lost. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Reproductive Biology of the Blue Swimming Crab Portunus pelagicus (Brachyura: Portunidae) in East Lampung Waters, Indonesia: Fecundity and Reproductive Potential

PubMed Central

Zairion; Wardiatno, Yusli; Boer, Mennofatria; Fahrudin, Achmad

2015-01-01

The blue swimming crab Portunus pelagicus is an important catch species for many coastal villages along the Java Sea coastline, but little is known regarding its reproductive biology or stock status. We examined the batch fecundity of female crabs that were collected monthly at landing sites from June 2011 to May 2012, calculated the relationships with body size, egg mass and month of the year, and determined the size at which females became potentially reproductive in the population inhabiting East Lampung waters (western Java Sea). Fecundity values ranged from 229,468 to 2,236,355 (mean = 926,638±30,975 [±SE]). The fecundity was positively and linearly correlated with carapace width (CW), but the relationships with body weight and egg mass were best described by logarithmic regression. A peaked, temporally cyclical pattern in fecundity was observed, with a peak period that was significantly different (F = 226.36; df = 22, p<0.05) from March to May 2012. Reproductive females were within the 111.0–155.9 mm CW size range; significantly higher reproductive potentials (F = 14.59; df = 30, p<0.05) were found in females within the 126.0–130.9 mm CW size group. The current minimum legal size (MLS = 100 mm CW) is not an appropriate limit reference point, and a precautionary approach is needed for a sustainable harvesting strategy. Resetting the MLS to 115 mm CW would potentially provide adequate protection for spawning females and increase total egg production, thereby maintaining population productivity and enhancing resilience in the face of current fishing pressures. PMID:26019748

Postnatal temporal bone ontogeny in Pan, Gorilla, and Homo, and the implications for temporal bone ontogeny in Australopithecus afarensis.

PubMed

Terhune, Claire E; Kimbel, William H; Lockwood, Charles A

2013-08-01

Assessments of temporal bone morphology have played an important role in taxonomic and phylogenetic evaluations of fossil taxa, and recent three-dimensional analyses of this region have supported the utility of the temporal bone for testing taxonomic and phylogenetic hypotheses. But while clinical analyses have examined aspects of temporal bone ontogeny in humans, the ontogeny of the temporal bone in non-human taxa is less well documented. This study examines ontogenetic allometry of the temporal bone in order to address several research questions related to the pattern and trajectory of temporal bone shape change during ontogeny in the African apes and humans. We further apply these data to a preliminary analysis of temporal bone ontogeny in Australopithecus afarensis. Three-dimensional landmarks were digitized on an ontogenetic series of specimens of Homo sapiens, Pan troglodytes, Pan paniscus, and Gorilla gorilla. Data were analyzed using geometric morphometric methods, and shape changes throughout ontogeny in relation to size were compared. Results of these analyses indicate that, despite broadly similar patterns, African apes and humans show marked differences in development of the mandibular fossa and tympanic portions of the temporal bone. These findings indicate divergent, rather than parallel, postnatal ontogenetic allometric trajectories for temporal bone shape in these taxa. The pattern of temporal bone shape change with size exhibited by A. afarensis showed some affinities to that of humans, but was most similar to extant African apes, particularly Gorilla. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Power laws governing epidemics in isolated populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rhodes, C. J.; Anderson, R. M.

1996-06-01

TEMPORAL changes in the incidence of measles virus infection within large urban communities in the developed world have been the focus of much discussion in the context of the identification and analysis of nonlinear and chaotic patterns in biological time series1-11. In contrast, the measles records for small isolated island populations are highly irregular, because of frequent fade-outs of infection12-14, and traditional analysis15 does not yield useful insight. Here we use measurements of the distribution of epidemic sizes and duration to show that regularities in the dynamics of such systems do become apparent. Specifically, these biological systems are characterized by well-defined power laws in a manner reminiscent of other nonlinear, spatially extended dynamical systems in the physical sciences16-19. We further show that the observed power-law exponents are well described by a simple lattice-based model which reflects the social interaction between individual hosts.

Design a Wearable Device for Blood Oxygen Concentration and Temporal Heart Beat Rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Myint, Cho Zin; Barsoum, Nader; Ing, Wong Kiing

2010-06-01

The wireless network technology is increasingly important in healthcare as a result of the aging population and the tendency to acquire chronic disease such as heart attack, high blood pressure amongst the elderly. A wireless sensor network system that has the capability to monitor physiological sign such as SpO2 (Saturation of Arterial Oxygen) and heart beat rate in real-time from the human's body is highlighted in this study. This research is to design a prototype sensor network hardware, which consists of microcontroller PIC18F series and transceiver unit. The sensor is corporate into a wearable body sensor network which is small in size and easy to use. The sensor allows a non invasive, real time method to provide information regarding the health of the body. This enables a more efficient and economical means for managing the health care of the population.

The effect of environmental uncertainty on morphological design and fluid balance in Sarracenia purpurea L.

PubMed

Kingsolver, Joel

1981-03-01

To explore principles of organismic design in fluctuating environments, morphological design of the leaf of the pitcher-plant, Sarracenia purpurea, was studied for a population in northern Michigan. The design criterion focused upon the leaf shape and minimum size which effectively avoids leaf desiccation (complete loss of fluid from the leaf cavity) in the face of fluctuating rainfall and meteorological conditions. Bowl- and pitcher-shaped leaves were considered. Simulations show that the pitcher geometry experiences less frequent desiccation than bowls of the same size. Desiccation frequency is inversely related to leaf size; the size distribution of pitcher leaves in the field shows that the majority of pitchers desiccate only 1-3 times per season on average, while smaller pitchers may average up to 8 times per season. A linear filter model of an organism in a fluctuating environment is presented, in which the organism selectively filters the temporal patterns of environmental input. General measures of rainfall predictability based upon information theory and spectral analysis are consistent with the model of a pitcher leaf as a low-pass (frequency) filter which avoids desiccation by eliminating high-frequency rainfall variability.

Seed crop size variation in the dominant South American conifer Araucaria angustifolia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Souza, Alexandre F.; Uarte de Matos, Daniele; Forgiarini, Cristiane; Martinez, Jaime

2010-01-01

Temporal variation in seed crop size of the long-lived pioneer conifer Araucaria angustifolia was studied in subtropical South America. We evaluated the expectations that: 1) A. angustifolia presents highly variable seed production (mast seeding behavior); 2) A. angustifolia has endogenous cycles of reproduction of two or three years; 3) There is a tendency for a high seed production year to be followed by an unusually low production year; 4) populations show synchrony in seed production at a geographical scale; 5) seed crop size is influenced by distinct climatic factors occurring during "key" reproductive stages and 6) as an expression of plant productivity, seed crop size should depend on integrated resource availability during the reproductive cycle. We obtained data from two distinct sources: 1) seed harvesting records from a private forest (14 years), and 2) commercial data from 22 municipalities in the Rio Grande do Sul State. Expectations 1, 2, 3 and 5 were not met, while expectations 4 and 6 were supported by the data. A. angustifolia showed environmentally triggered, continuous, moderately fluctuating, and regionally synchronous reproduction. Seed set seems to track variations in resource abundance as well as respond continuously to improved opportunities for successful regeneration.

Body size phenology in a regional bee fauna: a temporal extension of Bergmann's rule.

PubMed

Osorio-Canadas, Sergio; Arnan, Xavier; Rodrigo, Anselm; Torné-Noguera, Anna; Molowny, Roberto; Bosch, Jordi

2016-12-01

Bergmann's rule originally described a positive relationship between body size and latitude in warm-blooded animals. Larger animals, with a smaller surface/volume ratio, are better enabled to conserve heat in cooler climates (thermoregulatory hypothesis). Studies on endothermic vertebrates have provided support for Bergmann's rule, whereas studies on ectotherms have yielded conflicting results. If the thermoregulatory hypothesis is correct, negative relationships between body size and temperature should occur in temporal in addition to geographical gradients. To explore this possibility, we analysed seasonal activity patterns in a bee fauna comprising 245 species. In agreement with our hypothesis of a different relationship for large (endothermic) and small (ectothermic) species, we found that species larger than 27.81 mg (dry weight) followed Bergmann's rule, whereas species below this threshold did not. Our results represent a temporal extension of Bergmann's rule and indicate that body size and thermal physiology play an important role in structuring community phenology. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Temporally structured replay of neural activity in a model of entorhinal cortex, hippocampus and postsubiculum

PubMed Central

Hasselmo, Michael E.

2008-01-01

The spiking activity of hippocampal neurons during REM sleep exhibits temporally structured replay of spiking occurring during previously experienced trajectories (Louie and Wilson, 2001). Here, temporally structured replay of place cell activity during REM sleep is modeled in a large-scale network simulation of grid cells, place cells and head direction cells. During simulated waking behavior, the movement of the simulated rat drives activity of a population of head direction cells that updates the activity of a population of entorhinal grid cells. The population of grid cells drives the activity of place cells coding individual locations. Associations between location and movement direction are encoded by modification of excitatory synaptic connections from place cells to speed modulated head direction cells. During simulated REM sleep, the population of place cells coding an experienced location activates the head direction cells coding the associated movement direction. Spiking of head direction cells then causes frequency shifts within the population of entorhinal grid cells to update a phase representation of location. Spiking grid cells then activate new place cells that drive new head direction activity. In contrast to models that perform temporally compressed sequence retrieval similar to sharp wave activity, this model can simulate data on temporally structured replay of hippocampal place cell activity during REM sleep at time scales similar to those observed during waking. These mechanisms could be important for episodic memory of trajectories. PMID:18973557

Use of Photo-Identification and Mark-Recapture Methodology to Assess Basking Shark (Cetorhinus maximus) Populations

PubMed Central

Gore, Mauvis A.; Frey, Peter H.; Ormond, Rupert F.; Allan, Holly; Gilkes, Gabriella

2016-01-01

Following centuries of exploitation, basking sharks (Cetorhinus maximus) are considered by IUCN as Endangered in the Northeast Atlantic, where they have now been substantially protected for over two decades. However, the present size of this population remains unknown. We investigated the use of photo-identification of individuals’ dorsal fins, combined with mark-recapture methodology, to investigate the size of populations of basking shark within the west coast of Scotland. From a total of 921 encounters photographed between 2004 and 2011, 710 sharks were found to be individually identifiable based on dorsal fin damage and natural features. Of these, only 41 individuals were re-sighted, most commonly both within days of, and close to the site of, the initial encounter. A smaller number were re-sighted after longer periods of up to two years. A comparison of the distinguishing features of individuals on first recording and subsequent re-sighting showed that in almost all cases these features remained little changed, suggesting the low re-sighting rate was not due to a loss of distinguishing features. Because of the low number of re-sighting we were not able to produce reliable estimates for the long-term regional population. However, for one 50 km diameter study area between the islands of Mull, Coll and Tiree, we were able to generate closed-population estimates for 6–9 day periods in 2010 of 985 (95% CI = 494–1683), and in 2011 of 201 (95% CI = 143–340). For the same 2011 period an open-population model generated a similar estimate of 213 (95% CI = 111–317). Otherwise the low rate and temporal patterning of re-sightings support the view that such local basking shark populations are temporary, dynamic groupings of individuals drawn from a much larger regional population than previously supposed. The study demonstrated the feasibility and limitations of photo-identification as a non-invasive technique for identifying individual basking sharks. PMID:26930611

Geographic origins and population genetics of bats killed at wind-energy facilities.

PubMed

Pylant, Cortney L; Nelson, David M; Fitzpatrick, Matthew C; Gates, J Edward; Keller, Stephen R

2016-07-01

An unanticipated impact of wind-energy development has been large-scale mortality of insectivorous bats. In eastern North America, where mortality rates are among the highest in the world, the hoary bat (Lasiurus cinereus) and the eastern red bat (L. borealis) comprise the majority of turbine-associated bat mortality. Both species are migratory tree bats with widespread distributions; however, little is known regarding the geographic origins of bats killed at wind-energy facilities or the diversity and population structure of affected species. We addressed these unknowns by measuring stable hydrogen isotope ratios (δ 2 H) and conducting population genetic analyses of bats killed at wind-energy facilities in the central Appalachian Mountains (USA) to determine the summering origins, effective size, structure, and temporal stability of populations. Our results indicate that ~1% of hoary bat mortalities and ~57% of red bat mortalities derive from non-local sources, with no relationship between the proportion of non-local bats and sex, location of mortality, or month of mortality. Additionally, our data indicate that hoary bats in our sample consist of an unstructured population with a small effective size (N e ) and either a stable or declining history. Red bats also showed no evidence of population genetic structure, but in contrast to hoary bats, the diversity contained in our red bat samples is consistent with a much larger N e that reflects a demographic expansion after a bottleneck. These results suggest that the impacts of mortality associated with intensive wind-energy development may affect bat species dissimilarly, with red bats potentially better able to absorb sustained mortality than hoary bats because of their larger N e . Our results provide important baseline data and also illustrate the utility of stable isotopes and population genetics for monitoring bat populations affected by wind-energy development. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

PSMC analysis of effective population sizes in molecular ecology and its application to black-and-white Ficedula flycatchers.

PubMed

Nadachowska-Brzyska, Krystyna; Burri, Reto; Smeds, Linnéa; Ellegren, Hans

2016-03-01

Climatic fluctuations during the Quaternary period governed the demography of species and contributed to population differentiation and ultimately speciation. Studies of these past processes have previously been hindered by a lack of means and genetic data to model changes in effective population size (Ne ) through time. However, based on diploid genome sequences of high quality, the recently developed pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) can estimate trajectories of changes in Ne over considerable time periods. We applied this approach to resequencing data from nearly 200 genomes of four species and several populations of the Ficedula species complex of black-and-white flycatchers. Ne curves of Atlas, collared, pied and semicollared flycatcher converged 1-2 million years ago (Ma) at an Ne of ≈ 200 000, likely reflecting the time when all four species last shared a common ancestor. Subsequent separate Ne trajectories are consistent with lineage splitting and speciation. All species showed evidence of population growth up until 100-200 thousand years ago (kya), followed by decline and then start of a new phase of population expansion. However, timing and amplitude of changes in Ne differed among species, and for pied flycatcher, the temporal dynamics of Ne differed between Spanish birds and central/northern European populations. This cautions against extrapolation of demographic inference between lineages and calls for adequate sampling to provide representative pictures of the coalescence process in different species or populations. We also empirically evaluate criteria for proper inference of demographic histories using PSMC and arrive at recommendations of using sequencing data with a mean genome coverage of ≥18X, a per-site filter of ≥10 reads and no more than 25% of missing data. © 2016 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Long Term Recovery of New Orleans’ Population after Hurricane Katrina

PubMed Central

Fussell, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

Hurricane Katrina created a catastrophe in the city of New Orleans when the storm surge caused the levee system to fail on August 29, 2005. The destruction of housing displaced hundreds of thousands of residents for varying lengths of time, often permanently. It also revealed gaps in our knowledge of how population is recovered after a disaster causes widespread destruction of urban infrastructure, housing and workplaces, and how mechanisms driving housing recovery often produce unequal social, spatial and temporal population recovery. In this article, I assemble social, spatial and temporal explanatory frameworks for housing and population recovery and then review research on mobility – both evacuation and migration – after Hurricane Katrina. The review reveals a need for a comprehensive social, spatial and temporal framework for explaining inequality in population recovery and displacement. It also shows how little is known about in-migrants and permanent out-migrants after a disaster. PMID:26880853

Chronic radiation exposure modifies temporal dynamics of cytogenetic but not reproductive indicators in Scots pine populations.

PubMed

Geras'kin, Stanislav; Oudalova, Alla; Kuzmenkov, Alexey; Vasiliyev, Denis

2018-04-18

Over a period of 13 years (2003-2015), reproductive and cytogenetic effects are investigated in Scots pine populations growing in the Bryansk region of Russia radioactively contaminated as a result of the Chernobyl accident. In reference populations, the frequencies of cytogenetic abnormalities are shown to change with time in a cyclic manner. In chronically exposed populations, the cyclic patterns in temporal dynamics of cytogenetic abnormalities appear to be disturbed. In addition, a tendency to decrease in the frequencies of cytogenetic abnormalities with time as well as an increase in their variability with dose rate is revealed. In contrast, no significant impact of chronic radiation exposure on the time dynamics of reproductive indexes is detected. Finally, long-term observations on chronically exposed Scots pine populations revealed qualitative differences in the temporal dynamics of reproductive and cytogenetic indicators. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Long Term Recovery of New Orleans' Population after Hurricane Katrina.

PubMed

Fussell, Elizabeth

2015-09-01

Hurricane Katrina created a catastrophe in the city of New Orleans when the storm surge caused the levee system to fail on August 29, 2005. The destruction of housing displaced hundreds of thousands of residents for varying lengths of time, often permanently. It also revealed gaps in our knowledge of how population is recovered after a disaster causes widespread destruction of urban infrastructure, housing and workplaces, and how mechanisms driving housing recovery often produce unequal social, spatial and temporal population recovery. In this article, I assemble social, spatial and temporal explanatory frameworks for housing and population recovery and then review research on mobility - both evacuation and migration - after Hurricane Katrina. The review reveals a need for a comprehensive social, spatial and temporal framework for explaining inequality in population recovery and displacement. It also shows how little is known about in-migrants and permanent out-migrants after a disaster.

Population ecology of breeding Pacific common eiders on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Heather M.; Flint, Paul L.; Powell, Abby N.; Grand, J. Barry; Moral, Christine L.

2012-01-01

Populations of Pacific common eiders (Somateria mollissima v-nigrum) on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta (YKD) in western Alaska declined by 50–90% from 1957 to 1992 and then stabilized at reduced numbers from the early 1990s to the present. We investigated the underlying processes affecting their population dynamics by collection and analysis of demographic data from Pacific common eiders at 3 sites on the YKD (1991–2004) for 29 site-years. We examined variation in components of reproduction, tested hypotheses about the influence of specific ecological factors on life-history variables, and investigated their relative contributions to local population dynamics. Reproductive output was low and variable, both within and among individuals, whereas apparent survival of adult females was high and relatively invariant (0.89 ± 0.005). All reproductive parameters varied across study sites and years. Clutch initiation dates ranged from 4 May to 28 June, with peak (modal) initiation occurring on 26 May. Females at an island study site consistently initiated clutches 3–5 days earlier in each year than those on 2 mainland sites. Population variance in nest initiation date was negatively related to the peak, suggesting increased synchrony in years of delayed initiation. On average, total clutch size (laid) ranged from 4.8 to 6.6 eggs, and declined with date of nest initiation. After accounting for partial predation and non-viability of eggs, average clutch size at hatch ranged from 2.0 to 5.8 eggs. Within seasons, daily survival probability (DSP) of nests was lowest during egg-laying and late-initiation dates. Estimated nest survival varied considerably across sites and years (mean = 0.55, range: 0.06–0.92), but process variance in nest survival was relatively low (0.02, CI: 0.01–0.05), indicating that most variance was likely attributed to sampling error. We found evidence that observer effects may have reduced overall nest survival by 0.0–0.36 across site-years. Study sites with lower sample sizes and more frequent visitations appeared to experience greater observer effects. In general, Pacific common eiders exhibited high spatio-temporal variance in reproductive components. Larger clutch sizes and high nest survival at early initiation dates suggested directional selection favoring early nesting. However, stochastic environmental effects may have precluded response to this apparent selection pressure. Our results suggest that females breeding early in the season have the greatest reproductive value, as these birds lay the largest clutches and have the highest probability of successfully hatching. We developed stochastic, stage-based, matrix population models that incorporated observed spatio-temporal (process) variance and co-variation in vital rates, and projected the stable stage distribution () and population growth rate (λ). We used perturbation analyses to examine the relative influence of changes in vital rates on λ and variance decomposition to assess the proportion of variation in λ explained by process variation in each vital rate. In addition to matrix-based λ, we estimated λ using capture–recapture approaches, and log-linear regression. We found the stable age distribution for Pacific common eiders was weighted heavily towards experienced adult females (≥4 yr of age), and all calculations of λ indicated that the YKD population was stable to slightly increasing (λmatrix = 1.02, CI: 1.00–1.04); λreverse-capture–recapture = 1.05, CI: 0.99–1.11; λlog-linear = 1.04, CI: 0.98–1.10). Perturbation analyses suggested the population would respond most dramatically to changes in adult female survival (relative influence of adult survival was 1.5 times that of fecundity), whereas retrospective variation in λ was primarily explained by fecundity parameters (60%), particularly duckling survival (42%). Among components of fecundity, sensitivities were highest for duckling survival, suggesti

Temporal variations in early developmental decisions: an engine of forebrain evolution.

PubMed

Bielen, H; Pal, S; Tole, S; Houart, C

2017-02-01

Tight control of developmental timing is pivotal to many major processes in developmental biology, such as patterning, fate specification, cell cycle dynamics, cell migration and connectivity. Temporal change in these ontogenetic sequences is known as heterochrony, a major force in the evolution of body plans and organogenesis. In the last 5 years, studies in fish and rodents indicate that heterochrony in signaling during early development generates diversity in forebrain size and complexity. Here, we summarize these findings and propose that, additionally to spatio-temporal tuning of neurogenesis, temporal and quantitative modulation of signaling events drive pivotal changes in shape, size and complexity of the forebrain across evolution, participating to the generation of diversity in animal behavior and emergence of cognition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Utility of computer simulations in landscape genetics

Treesearch

Bryan K. Epperson; Brad H. McRae; Kim Scribner; Samuel A. Cushman; Michael S. Rosenberg; Marie-Josee Fortin; Patrick M. A. James; Melanie Murphy; Stephanie Manel; Pierre Legendre; Mark R. T. Dale

2010-01-01

Population genetics theory is primarily based on mathematical models in which spatial complexity and temporal variability are largely ignored. In contrast, the field of landscape genetics expressly focuses on how population genetic processes are affected by complex spatial and temporal environmental heterogeneity. It is spatially explicit and relates patterns to...

The use of resighting data to estimate the rate of population growth of the snail kite in Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dreitz, V.J.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Bennetts, R.E.; Kitchens, W.M.; DeAngelis, D.L.

2002-01-01

The rate of population growth (lambda) is an important demographic parameter used to assess the viability of a population and to develop management and conservation agendas. We examined the use of resighting data to estimate lambda for the snail kite population in Florida from 1997-2000. The analyses consisted of (1) a robust design approach that derives an estimate of lambda from estimates of population size and (2) the Pradel (1996) temporal symmetry (TSM) approach that directly estimates lambda using an open-population capture-recapture model. Besides resighting data, both approaches required information on the number of unmarked individuals that were sighted during the sampling periods. The point estimates of lambda differed between the robust design and TSM approaches, but the 95% confidence intervals overlapped substantially. We believe the differences may be the result of sparse data and do not indicate the inappropriateness of either modelling technique. We focused on the results of the robust design because this approach provided estimates for all study years. Variation among these estimates was smaller than levels of variation among ad hoc estimates based on previously reported index statistics. We recommend that lambda of snail kites be estimated using capture-resighting methods rather than ad hoc counts.

Genomic Consequences of Population Decline in the Endangered Florida Scrub-Jay.

PubMed

Chen, Nancy; Cosgrove, Elissa J; Bowman, Reed; Fitzpatrick, John W; Clark, Andrew G

2016-11-07

Understanding the population genetic consequences of declining population size is important for conserving the many species worldwide facing severe decline [1]. Thorough empirical studies on the impacts of population reduction at a genome-wide scale in the wild are scarce because they demand huge field and laboratory investments [1, 2]. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of gene flow in introducing genetic variation to small populations [3], but few have documented both genetic and fitness consequences of decreased immigration through time in a natural population [4-6]. Here we assess temporal variation in gene flow, inbreeding, and fitness using longitudinal genomic, demographic, and phenotypic data from a long-studied population of federally Threatened Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens). We exhaustively sampled and genotyped the study population over two decades, providing one of the most detailed longitudinal investigations of genetics in a wild animal population to date. Immigrants were less heterozygous than residents but still introduced genetic variation into our study population. Owing to regional population declines, immigration into the study population declined from 1995-2013, resulting in increased levels of inbreeding and reduced fitness via inbreeding depression, even as the population remained demographically stable. Our results show that, contrary to conventional wisdom, small peripheral populations that already have undergone a genetic bottleneck may play a vital role in preserving genetic diversity of larger and seemingly stable populations. These findings underscore the importance of investing in the persistence of small populations and maintaining population connectivity in conservation of fragmented species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Behavioural evidence for separate mechanisms of audiovisual temporal binding as a function of leading sensory modality.

PubMed

Cecere, Roberto; Gross, Joachim; Thut, Gregor

2016-06-01

The ability to integrate auditory and visual information is critical for effective perception and interaction with the environment, and is thought to be abnormal in some clinical populations. Several studies have investigated the time window over which audiovisual events are integrated, also called the temporal binding window, and revealed asymmetries depending on the order of audiovisual input (i.e. the leading sense). When judging audiovisual simultaneity, the binding window appears narrower and non-malleable for auditory-leading stimulus pairs and wider and trainable for visual-leading pairs. Here we specifically examined the level of independence of binding mechanisms when auditory-before-visual vs. visual-before-auditory input is bound. Three groups of healthy participants practiced audiovisual simultaneity detection with feedback, selectively training on auditory-leading stimulus pairs (group 1), visual-leading stimulus pairs (group 2) or both (group 3). Subsequently, we tested for learning transfer (crossover) from trained stimulus pairs to non-trained pairs with opposite audiovisual input. Our data confirmed the known asymmetry in size and trainability for auditory-visual vs. visual-auditory binding windows. More importantly, practicing one type of audiovisual integration (e.g. auditory-visual) did not affect the other type (e.g. visual-auditory), even if trainable by within-condition practice. Together, these results provide crucial evidence that audiovisual temporal binding for auditory-leading vs. visual-leading stimulus pairs are independent, possibly tapping into different circuits for audiovisual integration due to engagement of different multisensory sampling mechanisms depending on leading sense. Our results have implications for informing the study of multisensory interactions in healthy participants and clinical populations with dysfunctional multisensory integration. © 2016 The Authors. European Journal of Neuroscience published by Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Spatio-temporal variation in male white-tailed deer harvest rates in Pennsylvania: Implications for estimating abundance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norton, Andrew S.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Wallingford, Bret D.; Rosenberry, Christopher S.

2012-01-01

The performance of 2 popular methods that use age-at-harvest data to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer is contingent on assumptions about variation in estimates of subadult (1.5 yr old) and adult (≥2.5 yr old) male harvest rates. Auxiliary data (e.g., estimates of survival or harvest rates from radiocollared animals) can be used to relax some assumptions, but unless these population parameters exhibit limited temporal or spatial variation, these auxiliary data may not improve accuracy. Unfortunately maintaining sufficient sample sizes of radiocollared deer for parameter estimation in every wildlife management unit (WMU) is not feasible for most state agencies. We monitored the fates of 397 subadult and 225 adult male white-tailed deer across 4 WMUs from 2002 to 2008 using radio telemetry. We investigated spatial and temporal variation in harvest rates and investigated covariates related to the patterns observed. We found that most variation in harvest rates was explained spatially and that adult harvest rates (0.36–0.69) were more variable among study areas than subadult harvest rates (0.26–0.42). We found that hunter effort during the archery and firearms season best explained variation in harvest rates of adult males among WMUs, whereas hunter effort during only the firearms season best explained harvest rates for subadult males. From a population estimation perspective, it is advantageous that most variation was spatial and explained by a readily obtained covariate (hunter effort). However, harvest rates may vary if hunting regulations or hunter behavior change, requiring additional field studies to obtain accurate estimates of harvest rates. 

Multiscale change in reef coral species diversity and composition in the Tropical Eastern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomez, Catalina G.; Gonzalez, Andrew; Guzman, Hector M.

2018-03-01

Both natural and anthropogenic factors are changing coral-reef structure and function worldwide. Long-term monitoring has revealed declines in the local composition and species diversity of reefs. Here we report changes in coral-reef community structure over 12 yr (2000-2012) at 17 sites and three spatial scales (reef, gulf and country) in the Tropical Eastern Pacific (Panama). We found a significant 4% annual decline in species population sizes at the country and gulf scales, with significant declines ranging from 3 to 32% at all but one reef. No significant temporal change in expected richness was found at the country scale or in the Gulf of Chiriquí, but a 7% annual decline in expected species richness was found in the Gulf of Panama. There was a 2% increase in community evenness in the Gulf of Chiriquí, but no change in the Gulf of Panama. Significant temporal turnover was found at the country and gulf scales and at 29% of the reefs, a finding mostly explained by changes in species abundance, and losses and gains of rare species. Temporal trends in alpha and beta diversity metrics were explained by water temperature maxima, anomalies and variation that occurred even in the absence of a strong El Niño warming event.

Intercoalescence time distribution of incomplete gene genealogies in temporally varying populations, and applications in population genetic inference.

PubMed

Chen, Hua

2013-03-01

Tracing back to a specific time T in the past, the genealogy of a sample of haplotypes may not have reached their common ancestor and may leave m lineages extant. For such an incomplete genealogy truncated at a specific time T in the past, the distribution and expectation of the intercoalescence times conditional on T are derived in an exact form in this paper for populations of deterministically time-varying sizes, specifically, for populations growing exponentially. The derived intercoalescence time distribution can be integrated to the coalescent-based joint allele frequency spectrum (JAFS) theory, and is useful for population genetic inference from large-scale genomic data, without relying on computationally intensive approaches, such as importance sampling and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The inference of several important parameters relying on this derived conditional distribution is demonstrated: quantifying population growth rate and onset time, and estimating the number of ancestral lineages at a specific ancient time. Simulation studies confirm validity of the derivation and statistical efficiency of the methods using the derived intercoalescence time distribution. Two examples of real data are given to show the inference of the population growth rate of a European sample from the NIEHS Environmental Genome Project, and the number of ancient lineages of 31 mitochondrial genomes from Tibetan populations. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/University College London.

Temporal change in genetic integrity suggests loss of local adaptation in a wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) population following introgression by farmed escapees.

PubMed

Bourret, V; O'Reilly, P T; Carr, J W; Berg, P R; Bernatchez, L

2011-03-01

In some wild Atlantic salmon populations, rapid declines in numbers of wild returning adults has been associated with an increase in the prevalence of farmed salmon. Studies of phenotypic variation have shown that interbreeding between farmed and wild salmon may lead to loss of local adaptation. Yet, few studies have attempted to assess the impact of interbreeding at the genome level, especially among North American populations. Here, we document temporal changes in the genetic makeup of the severely threatened Magaguadavic River salmon population (Bay of Fundy, Canada), a population that might have been impacted by interbreeding with farmed salmon for nearly 20 years. Wild and farmed individuals caught entering the river from 1980 to 2005 were genotyped at 112 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and/or eight microsatellite loci, to scan for potential shifts in adaptive genetic variation. No significant temporal change in microsatellite-based estimates of allele richness or gene diversity was detected in the wild population, despite its precipitous decline in numbers over the last two decades. This might reflect the effect of introgression from farmed salmon, which was corroborated by temporal change in linkage-disequilibrium. Moreover, SNP genome scans identified a temporal decrease in candidate loci potentially under directional selection. Of particular interest was a SNP previously shown to be strongly associated with an important quantitative trait locus for parr mark number, which retained its genetic distinctiveness between farmed and wild fish longer than other outliers. Overall, these results indicate that farmed escapees have introgressed with wild Magaguadavic salmon resulting in significant alteration of the genetic integrity of the native population, including possible loss of adaptation to wild conditions.

Temporal change in genetic integrity suggests loss of local adaptation in a wild Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) population following introgression by farmed escapees

PubMed Central

Bourret, V; O'Reilly, P T; Carr, J W; Berg, P R; Bernatchez, L

2011-01-01

In some wild Atlantic salmon populations, rapid declines in numbers of wild returning adults has been associated with an increase in the prevalence of farmed salmon. Studies of phenotypic variation have shown that interbreeding between farmed and wild salmon may lead to loss of local adaptation. Yet, few studies have attempted to assess the impact of interbreeding at the genome level, especially among North American populations. Here, we document temporal changes in the genetic makeup of the severely threatened Magaguadavic River salmon population (Bay of Fundy, Canada), a population that might have been impacted by interbreeding with farmed salmon for nearly 20 years. Wild and farmed individuals caught entering the river from 1980 to 2005 were genotyped at 112 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), and/or eight microsatellite loci, to scan for potential shifts in adaptive genetic variation. No significant temporal change in microsatellite-based estimates of allele richness or gene diversity was detected in the wild population, despite its precipitous decline in numbers over the last two decades. This might reflect the effect of introgression from farmed salmon, which was corroborated by temporal change in linkage-disequilibrium. Moreover, SNP genome scans identified a temporal decrease in candidate loci potentially under directional selection. Of particular interest was a SNP previously shown to be strongly associated with an important quantitative trait locus for parr mark number, which retained its genetic distinctiveness between farmed and wild fish longer than other outliers. Overall, these results indicate that farmed escapees have introgressed with wild Magaguadavic salmon resulting in significant alteration of the genetic integrity of the native population, including possible loss of adaptation to wild conditions. PMID:21224876

Temporal Wind Pairs for Space Launch Vehicle Capability Assessment and Risk Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, Ryan K.; Barbre, Robert E., Jr.

2015-01-01

Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind assessments to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments make use of wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the winds over the time period between the assessment and launch introduces uncertainty in assessment of vehicle controllability and structural integrity that must be accounted for to ensure launch safety. Temporal wind pairs are used in engineering development of allowances to mitigate uncertainty. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (0.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the United States Air Force Eastern Range and Western Range, as well as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Wallops Flight Facility are developed for use in upper-level wind assessments on vehicle performance. Historical databases are compiled from balloon-based and vertically pointing Doppler radar wind profiler systems. Various automated and manual quality control procedures are used to remove unacceptable profiles. Statistical analyses on the resultant wind pairs from each site are performed to determine if the observed extreme wind changes in the sample pairs are representative of extreme temporal wind change. Wind change samples in the Eastern Range and Western Range databases characterize extreme wind change. However, the small sample sizes in the Wallops Flight Facility databases yield low confidence that the sample population characterizes extreme wind change that could occur.

Temporal Wind Pairs for Space Launch Vehicle Capability Assessment and Risk Mitigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, Ryan K.; Barbre, Robert E., Jr.

2014-01-01

Space launch vehicles incorporate upper-level wind assessments to determine wind effects on the vehicle and for a commit to launch decision. These assessments make use of wind profiles measured hours prior to launch and may not represent the actual wind the vehicle will fly through. Uncertainty in the winds over the time period between the assessment and launch introduces uncertainty in assessment of vehicle controllability and structural integrity that must be accounted for to ensure launch safety. Temporal wind pairs are used in engineering development of allowances to mitigate uncertainty. Five sets of temporal wind pairs at various times (0.75, 1.5, 2, 3 and 4-hrs) at the United States Air Force Eastern Range and Western Range, as well as the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Wallops Flight Facility are developed for use in upper-level wind assessments on vehicle performance. Historical databases are compiled from balloon-based and vertically pointing Doppler radar wind profiler systems. Various automated and manual quality control procedures are used to remove unacceptable profiles. Statistical analyses on the resultant wind pairs from each site are performed to determine if the observed extreme wind changes in the sample pairs are representative of extreme temporal wind change. Wind change samples in the Eastern Range and Western Range databases characterize extreme wind change. However, the small sample sizes in the Wallops Flight Facility databases yield low confidence that the sample population characterizes extreme wind change that could occur.

Multi-scale temporal and spatial variation in genotypic composition of Cladophora-borne Escherichia coli populations in Lake Michigan.

PubMed

Badgley, Brian D; Ferguson, John; Vanden Heuvel, Amy; Kleinheinz, Gregory T; McDermott, Colleen M; Sandrin, Todd R; Kinzelman, Julie; Junion, Emily A; Byappanahalli, Muruleedhara N; Whitman, Richard L; Sadowsky, Michael J

2011-01-01

High concentrations of Escherichia coli in mats of Cladophora in the Great Lakes have raised concern over the continued use of this bacterium as an indicator of microbial water quality. Determining the impacts of these environmentally abundant E. coli, however, necessitates a better understanding of their ecology. In this study, the population structure of 4285 Cladophora-borne E. coli isolates, obtained over multiple three day periods from Lake Michigan Cladophora mats in 2007-2009, was examined by using DNA fingerprint analyses. In contrast to previous studies that have been done using isolates from attached Cladophora obtained over large time scales and distances, the extensive sampling done here on free-floating mats over successive days at multiple sites provided a large dataset that allowed for a detailed examination of changes in population structure over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. While Cladophora-borne E. coli populations were highly diverse and consisted of many unique isolates, multiple clonal groups were also present and accounted for approximately 33% of all isolates examined. Patterns in population structure were also evident. At the broadest scales, E. coli populations showed some temporal clustering when examined by year, but did not show good spatial distinction among sites. E. coli population structure also showed significant patterns at much finer temporal scales. Populations were distinct on an individual mat basis at a given site, and on individual days within a single mat. Results of these studies indicate that Cladophora-borne E. coli populations consist of a mixture of stable, and possibly naturalized, strains that persist during the life of the mat, and more unique, transient strains that can change over rapid time scales. It is clear that further study of microbial processes at fine spatial and temporal scales is needed, and that caution must be taken when interpolating short term microbial dynamics from results obtained from weekly or monthly samples. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-scale temporal and spatial variation in genotypic composition of Cladophora-borne Escherichia coli populations in Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Badgley, B.D.; Ferguson, J.; Heuvel, A.V.; Kleinheinz, G.T.; McDermott, C.M.; Sandrin, T.R.; Kinzelman, J.; Junion, E.A.; Byappanahalli, M.N.; Whitman, R.L.; Sadowsky, M.J.

2011-01-01

High concentrations of Escherichia coli in mats of Cladophora in the Great Lakes have raised concern over the continued use of this bacterium as an indicator of microbial water quality. Determining the impacts of these environmentally abundant E. coli, however, necessitates a better understanding of their ecology. In this study, the population structure of 4285 Cladophora-borne E. coli isolates, obtained over multiple three day periods from Lake Michigan Cladophora mats in 2007-2009, was examined by using DNA fingerprint analyses. In contrast to previous studies that have been done using isolates from attached Cladophora obtained over large time scales and distances, the extensive sampling done here on free-floating mats over successive days at multiple sites provided a large dataset that allowed for a detailed examination of changes in population structure over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. While Cladophora-borne E. coli populations were highly diverse and consisted of many unique isolates, multiple clonal groups were also present and accounted for approximately 33% of all isolates examined. Patterns in population structure were also evident. At the broadest scales, E. coli populations showed some temporal clustering when examined by year, but did not show good spatial distinction among sites. E. coli population structure also showed significant patterns at much finer temporal scales. Populations were distinct on an individual mat basis at a given site, and on individual days within a single mat. Results of these studies indicate that Cladophora-borne E. coli populations consist of a mixture of stable, and possibly naturalized, strains that persist during the life of the mat, and more unique, transient strains that can change over rapid time scales. It is clear that further study of microbial processes at fine spatial and temporal scales is needed, and that caution must be taken when interpolating short term microbial dynamics from results obtained from weekly or monthly samples.

Holocene population history of the Sabana de Bogotá region, Northern South America: An assessment of the craniofacial shape variation.

PubMed

Delgado, Miguel

2017-02-01

Several authors using multiple and independent lines of evidence investigating the biocultural continuity versus discontinuity in the Sabana de Bogotá region, in the eastern highlands of Colombia, have arrived at contradictory conclusions supporting either scenarios. This study analyzes the craniofacial size and shape variation of diachronic samples from the study region to test distinct population history scenarios that support continuity or, alternatively, divergence. A total of 92 adult skulls belonging to five chronological groups, ranging from c. 10,100 to 350 14 C YBP, were analyzed through Procrustean geometric morphometric techniques. Matrix correlation analysis, multivariate exploratory (PCA, FDA), and evolutionary quantitative genetic methods (R-matrix analysis and β-test) were used to study the diachronic craniofacial shape variation. A model that supports strong evolutionary diversification over the Holocene better explains the patterns of morphological variation observed. At least two periods of significant craniofacial size and shape change were detected: one during the middle to initial late Holocene transition (c. 4,000-3,200 14 C YBP) and other toward the final late Holocene (post-2,000 14 C YBP), which exhibit differences in the pattern and magnitude of cranial divergence. In addition, the differentiation viewed between early and mid-Holocene foragers could mark the initial entry of non-local populations into the region toward the beginnings of the middle Holocene. Distinct to previous investigations the present study supports a more complex regional population history where multiple population contractions/extinctions, dispersals and assimilations along with dietary adaptations took place during the last 10,000 years. These results are in agreement with the archaeological and paleoecological record which suggests marked periods of change rather than temporal stability. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Land-use change has no detectable effect on reproduction of a disturbance-adapted, hawkmoth-pollinated plant species.

PubMed

Skogen, Krissa A; Jogesh, Tania; Hilpman, Evan T; Todd, Sadie L; Rhodes, Matthew K; Still, Shannon M; Fant, Jeremie B

2016-11-01

Land-use change is cited as a primary driver of global biodiversity loss, with myriad consequences for species, populations, and ecosystems. However, few studies have examined its impact on species interactions, particularly pollination. Furthermore, when the effects of land-use change on pollination have been studied, the focus has largely been on species pollinated by diurnal pollinators, namely, bees and butterflies. Here, we focus on Oenothera harringtonii, a night-flowering, disturbance-adapted species that has experienced a range-wide gradient of land-use change. We tested the hypothesis that the negative impacts of land-use change are mitigated by long-distance pollination. Our study included both temporal (4 yr) and spatial (19 populations range-wide, and 1, 2, and 5 km from the population center) data, providing a comprehensive understanding of the role of land-use change on pollination biology and reproduction. We first confirmed that O. harringtonii is self-incompatible and reliant on pollinators for reproduction. We then showed that hawkmoths (primarily Hyles lineata) are highly reliable and effective pollinators in both space and time. Unlike other studies, we did not detect an effect of population size, increased isolation, or a reduction in suitable habitat in areas with evidence of land-use change on pollination (visitation, pollen removal and deposition). Furthermore, the proportion of suitable habitat and other fragmentation metrics examined were not associated with population size or density in this plant species. We conclude that nocturnal pollination of Oenothera harringtonii via hawkmoths is robust to the negative impacts of land-use change. © 2016 Skogen et al. Published by the Botanical Society of America. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License (CC-BY).

Effects of weather on the abundance and distribution on populations of 103 breeding bird species across the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allstadt, A. J.; Gorzo, J.; Bateman, B. L.; Heglund, P. J.; Pidgeon, A. M.; Thogmartin, W.; Vavrus, S. J.; Radeloff, V.

2016-12-01

Often, fewer birds are often observed in an area experiencing extreme weather, as local populations tend to leave an area (via out-migration or concentration in refugia) or experience a change in population size (via mortality or reduced fecundity). Further, weather patterns are often coherent over large areas so unsuitable weather may threaten large portions of an entire species range simultaneously. However, beyond a few iconic irruptive species, rarely have studies applied both the necessary scale and sensitivity required to assess avian population responses over entire species range. Here, we examined the effects of pre-breeding season weather on the distribution and abundances of 103 North American bird species from the late 1966-2010 using observed abundance records from the Breeding Bird Survey. We compared abundances with measures of drought and temperature over each species' range, and with three atmospheric teleconnections that describe large-scale circulation patterns influencing conditions on the ground. More than 90% of the species responded to at least one of our five weather variables. Grassland bird species tended to be most responsive to weather conditions and forest birds the least, though we found relations among all habitat types. For most species, the response was movement rather than large effects on the overall population size. Maps of these responses indicate that concentration and out-migration are both common strategies for coping with challenging weather conditions across a species range. The dynamic distribution of many bird species makes clear the need to account for temporal variability in conservation planning, as areas that are less important for a species' breeding success in most years may be very important in years with abnormal weather conditions.

Detecting concerted demographic response across community assemblages using hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation.

PubMed

Chan, Yvonne L; Schanzenbach, David; Hickerson, Michael J

2014-09-01

Methods that integrate population-level sampling from multiple taxa into a single community-level analysis are an essential addition to the comparative phylogeographic toolkit. Detecting how species within communities have demographically tracked each other in space and time is important for understanding the effects of future climate and landscape changes and the resulting acceleration of extinctions, biological invasions, and potential surges in adaptive evolution. Here, we present a statistical framework for such an analysis based on hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation (hABC) with the goal of detecting concerted demographic histories across an ecological assemblage. Our method combines population genetic data sets from multiple taxa into a single analysis to estimate: 1) the proportion of a community sample that demographically expanded in a temporally clustered pulse and 2) when the pulse occurred. To validate the accuracy and utility of this new approach, we use simulation cross-validation experiments and subsequently analyze an empirical data set of 32 avian populations from Australia that are hypothesized to have expanded from smaller refugia populations in the late Pleistocene. The method can accommodate data set heterogeneity such as variability in effective population size, mutation rates, and sample sizes across species and exploits the statistical strength from the simultaneous analysis of multiple species. This hABC framework used in a multitaxa demographic context can increase our understanding of the impact of historical climate change by determining what proportion of the community responded in concert or independently and can be used with a wide variety of comparative phylogeographic data sets as biota-wide DNA barcoding data sets accumulate. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Phenology of Scramble Polygyny in a Wild Population of Chrysolemid Beetles: The Opportunity for and the Strength of Sexual Selection

PubMed Central

Baena, Martha Lucía; Macías-Ordóñez, Rogelio

2012-01-01

Recent debate has highlighted the importance of estimating both the strength of sexual selection on phenotypic traits, and the opportunity for sexual selection. We describe seasonal fluctuations in mating dynamics of Leptinotarsa undecimlineata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae). We compared several estimates of the opportunity for, and the strength of, sexual selection and male precopulatory competition over the reproductive season. First, using a null model, we suggest that the ratio between observed values of the opportunity for sexual selections and their expected value under random mating results in unbiased estimates of the actual nonrandom mating behavior of the population. Second, we found that estimates for the whole reproductive season often misrepresent the actual value at any given time period. Third, mating differentials on male size and mobility, frequency of male fighting and three estimates of the opportunity for sexual selection provide contrasting but complementary information. More intense sexual selection associated to male mobility, but not to male size, was observed in periods with high opportunity for sexual selection and high frequency of male fights. Fourth, based on parameters of spatial and temporal aggregation of female receptivity, we describe the mating system of L. undecimlineata as a scramble mating polygyny in which the opportunity for sexual selection varies widely throughout the season, but the strength of sexual selection on male size remains fairly weak, while male mobility inversely covaries with mating success. We suggest that different estimates for the opportunity for, and intensity of, sexual selection should be applied in order to discriminate how different behavioral and demographic factors shape the reproductive dynamic of populations. PMID:22761675

Kinematics of the Pelvis, Torso, and Lower Limb During Obstacle Negotiation While Under Temporal Constraints.

PubMed

Christensen, Jesse C; Wilson, Christopher R; Merryweather, Andrew S; Foreman, K Bo

2017-04-01

Biomechanics of unobstructed locomotion consists of synchronized complex movements of the pelvis, torso, and lower limbs. These movement patterns become more complex as individuals encounter obstacles or negotiate uneven terrain. To date, limited research has explored how specifically the pelvis, torso, and lower limb segments relate to obstacle negotiation of varying sized objects combined with temporal constraints to perform the task. Understanding pelvis and adjoining segment movements during object negotiation will provide necessary information in identifying abnormal mechanics and potential fall risk characteristics in balance compromised patient populations. In this prospective cohort study, we aimed to compare pelvic, torso, and lower limb kinematics during unobstructed locomotion with obstacle negotiation of varying heights. Ten healthy young adults (7 females and 3 males, mean age 28.4 ± 4.1 years, mean body mass index 22.5 ± 3.6 kg/m 2 ) enrolled in this study. Analysis of within-subject differences revealed a significant increase in sagittal (posterior tilt) and frontal (ipsilateral hike) plane pelvic angular displacement and higher sagittal plane posterior torso lean angular displacement with increased obstacle height. Furthermore, both sagittal plane hip and knee maximum joint flexion were significantly higher with increasing heights of the obstacles during negotiation. These data provide insight on segment mechanics within a non-mobility-impaired population; therefore, providing a baseline to understand the kinematic demands necessary for safe and effective gait in mobility-compromised populations. Anat Rec, 300:732-738, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Going wild: what a global small-animal tracking system could do for experimental biologists.

PubMed

Wikelski, Martin; Kays, Roland W; Kasdin, N Jeremy; Thorup, Kasper; Smith, James A; Swenson, George W

2007-01-01

Tracking animals over large temporal and spatial scales has revealed invaluable and spectacular biological information, particularly when the paths and fates of individuals can be monitored on a global scale. However, only large animals (greater than approximately 300 g) currently can be followed globally because of power and size constraints on the tracking devices. And yet the vast majority of animals is small. Tracking small animals is important because they are often part of evolutionary and ecological experiments, they provide important ecosystem services and they are of conservation concern or pose harm to human health. Here, we propose a small-animal satellite tracking system that would enable the global monitoring of animals down to the size of the smallest birds, mammals (bats), marine life and eventually large insects. To create the scientific framework necessary for such a global project, we formed the ICARUS initiative (www.IcarusInitiative.org), the International Cooperation for Animal Research Using Space. ICARUS also highlights how small-animal tracking could address some of the ;Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences' identified by the US National Academy of Sciences, such as the spread of infectious diseases or the relationship between biological diversity and ecosystem functioning. Small-animal tracking would allow the quantitative assessment of dispersal and migration in natural populations and thus help solve enigmas regarding population dynamics, extinctions and invasions. Experimental biologists may find a global small-animal tracking system helpful in testing, validating and expanding laboratory-derived discoveries in wild, natural populations. We suggest that the relatively modest investment into a global small-animal tracking system will pay off by providing unprecedented insights into both basic and applied nature. Tracking small animals over large spatial and temporal scales could prove to be one of the most powerful techniques of the early 21st century, offering potential solutions to a wide range of biological and societal questions that date back two millennia to the Greek philosopher Aristotle's enigma about songbird migration. Several of the more recent Grand Challenges in Environmental Sciences, such as the regulation and functional consequences of biological diversity or the surveillance of the population ecology of zoonotic hosts, pathogens or vectors, could also be addressed by a global small-animal tracking system. Our discussion is intended to contribute to an emerging groundswell of scientific support to make such a new technological system happen.

Artificial wetlands as tools for frog conservation: stability and variability of reproduction characteristics in Sahara frog populations in Tunisian man-made lakes.

PubMed

Bellakhal, Meher; Neveu, André; Fertouna-Bellakhal, Mouna; Aleya, Lotfi

2017-12-01

Amphibian populations are in decline principally due to climate change, environmental contaminants, and the reduction in wetlands. Even though data concerning current population trends are scarce, artificial wetlands appear to play a vital role in amphibian conservation. This study concerns the reproductive biology of the Sahara frog over a 2-year period in four Tunisian man-made lakes. Each month, gonad state (parameters: K, GSI, LCI), fecundity, and fertility of females (using 1227 clutches) were evaluated in the field under controlled conditions. Clutches were present for 110-130 days at two of the sites, but only for 60-80 days at the other two. Maximum egg laying occurred in May, corresponding to the highest point in the gonad somatic index. Clutch densities were higher in the smaller lakes. Female fecundity was in relation to body size; mean clutch fecundity attained 1416 eggs, with no differences observed according to site. Egg fertility varied over a 1-year period, with a maximum in May followed by a decrease when water temperature was at its highest. Eggs were smaller at the beginning of spawning; maximum size was in May, which might explain the higher fertility, but no maternal influence was detected. Embryonic development was strictly dependent on temperature. The population at each site appeared as a small patch within a metapopulation in overall good health, as shown by the relative temporal stability in reproduction variables. Constructed wetlands may therefore play an important role in the conservation of amphibians, especially in semi-arid zones.

How can mortality increase population size? A test of two mechanistic hypotheses.

PubMed

McIntire, Kristina M; Juliano, Steven A

2018-05-03

Overcompensation occurs when added mortality increases survival to the next life-cycle stage. Overcompensation can contribute to the Hydra Effect, wherein added mortality increases equilibrium population size. One hypothesis for overcompensation is that added mortality eases density-dependence, increasing survival to adulthood ("temporal separation of mortality and density dependence"). Mortality early in the life cycle is therefore predicted to cause overcompensation, whereas mortality later in the life cycle is not. Another hypothesis for overcompensation is that threat of mortality (e.g., from predation) causes behavioral changes that reduce overexploitation of resources, allowing resource recovery, and increasing production of adults ("prudent resource exploitation"). Behaviorally active predation cues alone are therefore predicted to cause overcompensation. We tested these predictions in two experiments with larvae of two species of Aedes. As predicted, early mortality yielded greater production of adults, and of adult females, and greater estimated rate of population increase than did later mortality. Addition of water-borne predation cues usually reduced browsing on surfaces in late-stage larvae, but contrary to prediction, resulted in neither significantly greater production of adult mosquitoes nor significantly greater estimated rate of increase. Thus we have strong evidence that timing of mortality contributes to overcompensation and the Hydra effect in mosquitoes. Evidence that predation cues alone can result in overcompensation via prudent resource exploitation is lacking. We expect the overcompensation in response to early mortality will be common in organisms with complex life cycles, density dependence among juveniles, and developmental control of populations. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

On determining the significance of ephemeral continental wetlands to North American migratory shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Granfors, Diane A.; Melcher, Cynthia P.

2008-01-01

Conservation challenges enhance the need for quantitative information on dispersed bird populations in extensive landscapes, for techniques to monitor populations and assess environmental effects, and for conservation strategies at appropriate temporal and spatial scales. By estimating population sizes of shorebirds in the U.S. portion of the prairie pothole landscape in central North America, where most migrating shorebirds exhibit a highly dispersed spatial pattern, we determined that the region may play a vital role in the conservation of shorebirds. During northward and southward migration, 7.3 million shorebirds (95% CI: 4.3–10.3 million) and 3.9 million shorebirds (95% CI: 1.7–6.0 million) stopped to rest and refuel in the study area; inclusion of locally breeding species increases the estimates by 0.1 million and 0.07 million shorebirds, respectively. Seven species of calidridine sandpipers, including Semipalmated Sandpipers (Calidris pusilla), White-rumped Sandpipers (C. fuscicollis), and Stilt Sandpipers (C. himantopus), constituted 50% of northbound migrants in our study area. We present an approach to population estimation and monitoring, based on stratified random selection of townships as sample units, that is well suited to 11 migratory shorebird species. For extensive and dynamic wetland systems, we strongly caution against a monitoring program based solely on repeated counts of known stopover sites with historically high numbers of shorebirds. We recommend refinements in methodology to address sample-size requirements and potential sources of bias so that our approach may form the basis of a rigorous migration monitoring program in this and other prairie wetland regions.

Temporal expectation and spectral expectation operate in distinct fashion on neuronal populations.

PubMed

Hsu, Yi-Fang; Hämäläinen, Jarmo A; Waszak, Florian

2013-11-01

The formation of temporal expectation (i.e., the prediction of "when") is of prime importance to sensory processing. It can modulate sensory processing at early processing stages probably via the entrainment of low-frequency neuronal oscillations in the brain. However, sensory predictions involve not only temporal expectation but also spectral expectation (i.e., the prediction of "what"). Here we investigated how temporal expectation may interrelate with spectral expectation by explicitly setting up temporal expectation and spectral expectation in a target detection task. We found that reaction time (RT) was shorter when targets were temporally expected than when they were temporally unexpected. The temporal expectation effect was larger with than without spectral expectation. However, this interaction in the behavioural data did not result from an interaction in the electroencephalography (EEG), where we observed independent main effects of temporal expectation and spectral expectation. More precisely, we found that the N1 and P2 event-related potential (ERP) components and the entrainment of low-frequency neuronal oscillations were exclusively modulated by temporal expectation, whilst only the P3 ERP component was modulated by spectral expectation. Our results, thus, support the idea that temporal expectation and spectral expectation operate in distinct fashion on neuronal populations. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

What Can Crystal Size Distributions and Olivine Compositions Tell Us About Magma Solidification Processes in Kilauea Iki Lava Lake, Hawaii?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinet, N.; Higgins, M. D.

2009-12-01

Lava lakes offer the opportunity to investigate magma solidification and can be considered as a proxy for small magma chambers or layered intrusions. Here we present data from Kilauea Iki Lava Lake, which formed during the near-summit 1959 picritic eruption of Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii. Microprobe geochemical analyses and crystal size distributions (CSDs) of olivine were determined from three eruption scoria samples, and 34 drill core samples taken from 1967 to 1988. The data provide valuable information on the dynamics and timescales of the intra-lake solidification processes, along with origin of, and temporal constraints on, the distinct olivine populations. Based on their core and rim forsterite (Fo) content, three distinct olivine populations were distinguished: (1) a high-Fo population (Fo85-88); (2) an intermediate-Fo population (Fo77-81); and (3) a low-Fo population (Fo72-76). Groups 1 and 2 both have deformed and undeformed crystals indicating that they formed partly within Kilauea plumbing system before the eruption. The second group seems to be associated with the ‘vertical olivine-rich bodies’ (VORBs) of Helz (1980). These structures raise magma from the lower part of the lake; hence they may have a contrasting composition maintained from the initial filling of the lake. The third population may be the result of rejuvenation within the lake during its cooling. Although the shape of the olivine CSDs is fairly uniform, we note significant variations that allow the recognition and quantification of multiple solidification processes. Our data display evidence of minor accumulation occurring by settling modified by convection currents. The concave-up curvature of at least half of the CSDs is strong evidence for mixing of magmas or crystal populations. The turndown at smallest sizes of the CSD, particularly present for samples at the edge of the lake, is thought to be the result of coarsening. Our CSD and crystal chemistry data suggest that the early populations and their related magmas underwent several solidification processes at depth, such as minor growth, coarsening, aggregation and deformation, plus settling and mixing maybe, no matter the order of appearance. The CSD analysis also yields estimates of the crystal residence time for different olivine populations, which are not necessarily the same as those defined using the olivine composition. For a growth rate of 10-9 mm/s, the range of residence times is 2-30 years. The CSDs can be segmented into three main groups: (a) a minor 2-4 yr-old population of smaller, rejuvenated crystals; (b) a dominant 10-18 yr-old population of intermediate-sized crystals; and (c) a 20-30 yr-old population of larger, coarsened, and often deformed crystals. Although the focus is here on volcanic rocks, our work gives a new perspective on the solidification of basic magma that can gain valuable insights into the overall understanding of mafic layered intrusions. References: Helz (1980), Bull. Volc. 43 (4): 675-701

Trophic flexibility of the Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus in invaded coastal systems of the Apulia region (SE Italy): A stable isotope analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mancinelli, Giorgio; Teresa Guerra, Maria; Alujević, Karla; Raho, Davide; Zotti, Maurizio; Vizzini, Salvatrice

2017-11-01

The Atlantic blue crab Callinectes sapidus is recognized as an Invasive Alien Species in the Mediterranean Sea. However, its trophic role and feeding flexibility in invaded benthic food webs have been addressed only recently. Here, field samplings were conducted in winter and summer in five coastal systems of the Apulia region (SE Italy), three located on the Ionian Sea (Mar Piccolo, Torre Colimena, and Spunderati) and two on the Adriatic Sea (Acquatina and Alimini Grande). Captured blue crabs were weighed and had their δ13C and δ15N isotopic signatures measured; their trophic level (TL) was estimated using the mussel Mytilus galloprovincialis as isotopic baseline. C. sapidus abundances varied greatly across systems and seasons, and in Adriatic systems the species was not collected in winter. Trophic levels showed significant spatial and temporal variations, although with no general pattern. In winter, the Mar Piccolo population showed the highest TL values; the lowest estimates were in Torre Colimena and Spunderati, where crabs showed δ13C signatures significantly higher than mussels, suggesting the contribution of 13C-enriched plant material in the diet. In summer, with the exception of the Mar Piccolo, Ionian populations increased their trophic level; both Adriatic populations were characterized by the lowest TL estimates. The analysis performed at the individual scale further indicated body weight-related changes in trophic level. For the Torre Colimena population, in particular, a hump-shaped pattern was observed in both seasons. The present study highlighted a considerable spatial and temporal trophic flexibility of C. sapidus at the population scale, while at the individual scale size-related shifts in trophic level were observed. The ability of the blue crab to vary its energy sources in relation with season, local environmental conditions, and ontogenetic stage is emphasized, suggesting that it may represent a key determinant of its invasion success.

Tracking the Spatiotemporal Neural Dynamics of Real-world Object Size and Animacy in the Human Brain.

PubMed

Khaligh-Razavi, Seyed-Mahdi; Cichy, Radoslaw Martin; Pantazis, Dimitrios; Oliva, Aude

2018-06-07

Animacy and real-world size are properties that describe any object and thus bring basic order into our perception of the visual world. Here, we investigated how the human brain processes real-world size and animacy. For this, we applied representational similarity to fMRI and MEG data to yield a view of brain activity with high spatial and temporal resolutions, respectively. Analysis of fMRI data revealed that a distributed and partly overlapping set of cortical regions extending from occipital to ventral and medial temporal cortex represented animacy and real-world size. Within this set, parahippocampal cortex stood out as the region representing animacy and size stronger than most other regions. Further analysis of the detailed representational format revealed differences among regions involved in processing animacy. Analysis of MEG data revealed overlapping temporal dynamics of animacy and real-world size processing starting at around 150 msec and provided the first neuromagnetic signature of real-world object size processing. Finally, to investigate the neural dynamics of size and animacy processing simultaneously in space and time, we combined MEG and fMRI with a novel extension of MEG-fMRI fusion by representational similarity. This analysis revealed partly overlapping and distributed spatiotemporal dynamics, with parahippocampal cortex singled out as a region that represented size and animacy persistently when other regions did not. Furthermore, the analysis highlighted the role of early visual cortex in representing real-world size. A control analysis revealed that the neural dynamics of processing animacy and size were distinct from the neural dynamics of processing low-level visual features. Together, our results provide a detailed spatiotemporal view of animacy and size processing in the human brain.

Sooner Versus Later: Factors Associated with Temporal Sequencing of Suicide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, Mark S.; McFarland, Bentson H.; Huguet, Nathalie; Newsom, Jason T.

2006-01-01

There are few (if any) population-based prospective studies that provide information on factors associated with temporal sequencing of suicide. In this prospective population-based study, the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), 1986-1994, was linked to the National Death Index (NDI), 1986-1997, to assess factors that predict recent (within 12…

Spatial and temporal variation in size of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) sexual organs and its use in pollution and climate change studies.

PubMed

Sonne, Christian; Dietz, Rune; Born, Erik W; Riget, Frank F; Leifsson, Pall S; Bechshøft, Thea Ø; Kirkegaard, Maja

2007-11-15

Sexual organs and their development are susceptible to atmospheric transported environmental xenoendocrine pollutants and climate change (food availability). We therefore investigated sexual organs from 55 male and 44 female East Greenland polar bears (Ursus maritimus) to obtain information about growth/size and sexual maturity. Then, the genitalia size was compared with those previously reported from Canadian and Svalbard polar bears. Growth models showed that East Greenland male polar bears reached sexual maturity around 7 years of age and females around 4 years of age. When comparing East Greenland and Svalbard polar bears, the size of baculum and uterus were significantly lower in the East Greenland polar bears (ANOVA: all p < 0.05). Based on previously published baculum mean values from Canadian polar bears, a similar baculum pattern was found for East Greenland vs. Canadian polar bears. It is speculated whether this could be a result of the general high variation in polar bear body size, temporal distribution patterns of anthropogenic long-range transported persistent organic pollutants or climate change (decreasing food availability). The present investigation represents conservation and background data for future spatial and temporal assessments of hunting, pollution and climate change scenarios.

The 'temporal effect' in hominids: Reinvestigating the nature of support for a chimp-human clade in bone morphology.

PubMed

Pearson, Alannah; Groves, Colin; Cardini, Andrea

2015-11-01

In 2004, an analysis by Lockwood and colleagues of hard-tissue morphology, using geometric morphometrics on the temporal bone, succeeded in recovering the correct phylogeny of living hominids without resorting to potentially problematic methods for transforming continuous shape variables into meristic characters. That work has increased hope that by using modern analytical methods and phylogenetically informative anatomical data we might one day be able to accurately infer the relationships of hominins, including the closest extinct relatives of modern humans. In the present study, using 3D virtually generated models of the hominid temporal bone and a larger suite of geometric morphometric and comparative techniques, we have re-examined the evidence for a Pan-Homo clade. Despite differences in samples, as well as the type of raw data, the effect of measurement error (and especially landmark digitization by a different operator), but also a broader perspective brought in by our diverse set of approaches, our reanalysis largely supports Lockwood and colleagues' original results. However, by focusing not only mainly on shape (as in the original 2004 analysis) but also on size and 'size-corrected' (non-allometric) shape, we demonstrate that the strong phylogenetic signal in the temporal bone is largely related to similarities in size. Thus, with this study, we are not suggesting the use of a single 'character', such as size, for phylogenetic inference, but we do challenge the common view that shape, with its highly complex and multivariate nature, is necessarily more phylogenetically informative than size and that actually size and size-related shape variation (i.e., allometry) confound phylogenetic inference based on morphology. This perspective may in fact be less generalizable than often believed. Thus, while we confirm the original findings by Lockwood et al., we provide a deep reinterpretation of their nature and potential implications for hominid phylogenetics and we show how crucial it is not to overlook size in geometric morphometric analyses. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identifying key demographic parameters of a small island–associated population of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins (Reunion, Indian Ocean)

PubMed Central

Estrade, Vanessa; Fayan, Jacques

2017-01-01

Photo-identification surveys of Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphins were conducted from 2009 to 2014 off Reunion Island (55°E33’/21°S07’), in the Indian Ocean. Robust Design models were applied to produce the most reliable estimate of population abundance and survival rate, while accounting for temporary emigration from the survey area (west coast). The sampling scheme consisted of a five-month (June–October) sampling period in each year of the study. The overall population size at Reunion was estimated to be 72 individuals (SE = 6.17, 95%CI = 61–85), based on a random temporary emigration (γ”) of 0.096 and a proportion of 0.70 (SE = 0.03) distinct individuals. The annual survival rate was 0.93 (±0.018 SE, 95%CI = 0.886–0.958) and was constant over time and between sexes. Models considering gender groups indicated different movement patterns between males and females. Males showed null or quasi-null temporary emigration (γ” = γ’ < 0.01), while females showed a random temporary emigration (γ”) of 0.10, suggesting that a small proportion of females was outside the survey area during each primary sampling period. Sex-specific temporary migration patterns were consistent with movement and residency patterns observed in other areas. The Robust Design approach provided an appropriate sampling scheme for deriving island-associated population parameters, while allowing to restrict survey effort both spatially (i.e. west coast only) and temporally (five months per year). Although abundance and survival were stable over the six years, the small population size of fewer than 100 individuals suggested that this population is highly vulnerable. Priority should be given to reducing any potential impact of human activity on the population and its habitat. PMID:28640918

Geographic variation in advertisement calls of a Microhylid frog - testing the role of drift and ecology.

PubMed

Lee, Ko-Huan; Shaner, Pei-Jen L; Lin, Yen-Po; Lin, Si-Min

2016-05-01

Acoustic signals for mating are important traits that could drive population differentiation and speciation. Ecology may play a role in acoustic divergence through direct selection (e.g., local adaptation to abiotic environment), constraint of correlated traits (e.g., acoustic traits linked to another trait under selection), and/or interspecific competition (e.g., character displacement). However, genetic drift alone can also drive acoustic divergence. It is not always easy to differentiate the role of ecology versus drift in acoustic divergence. In this study, we tested the role of ecology and drift in shaping geographic variation in the advertisement calls of Microhyla fissipes. We examined three predictions based on ecological processes: (1) the correlation between temperature and call properties across M. fissipes populations; (2) the correlation between call properties and body size across M. fissipes populations; and (3) reproductive character displacement (RCD) in call properties between M. fissipes populations that are sympatric with and allopatric to a congener M. heymonsi. To test genetic drift, we examined correlations among call divergence, geographic distance, and genetic distance across M. fissipes populations. We recorded the advertisement calls from 11 populations of M. fissipes in Taiwan, five of which are sympatrically distributed with M. heymonsi. We found geographic variation in both temporal and spectral properties of the advertisement calls of M. fissipes. However, the call properties were not correlated with local temperature or the callers' body size. Furthermore, we did not detect RCD. By contrast, call divergence, geographic distance, and genetic distance between M. fissipes populations were all positively correlated. The comparisons between phenotypic Q st (P st) and F st values did not show significant differences, suggesting a role of drift. We concluded that genetic drift, rather than ecological processes, is the more likely driver for the geographic variation in the advertisement calls of M. fissipes.

Macromolecular Crowding Induces Spatial Correlations That Control Gene Expression Bursting Patterns.

PubMed

Norred, S Elizabeth; Caveney, Patrick M; Chauhan, Gaurav; Collier, Lauren K; Collier, C Patrick; Abel, Steven M; Simpson, Michael L

2018-05-18

Recent superresolution microscopy studies in E. coli demonstrate that the cytoplasm has highly variable local concentrations where macromolecular crowding plays a central role in establishing membrane-less compartmentalization. This spatial inhomogeneity significantly influences molecular transport and association processes central to gene expression. Yet, little is known about how macromolecular crowding influences gene expression bursting-the episodic process where mRNA and proteins are produced in bursts. Here, we simultaneously measured mRNA and protein reporters in cell-free systems, showing that macromolecular crowding decoupled the well-known relationship between fluctuations in the protein population (noise) and mRNA population statistics. Crowded environments led to a 10-fold increase in protein noise even though there were only modest changes in the mRNA population and fluctuations. Instead, cell-like macromolecular crowding created an inhomogeneous spatial distribution of mRNA ("spatial noise") that led to large variability in the protein production burst size. As a result, the mRNA spatial noise created large temporal fluctuations in the protein population. These results highlight the interplay between macromolecular crowding, spatial inhomogeneities, and the resulting dynamics of gene expression, and provide insights into using these organizational principles in both cell-based and cell-free synthetic biology.

Building the bridge between animal movement and population dynamics.

PubMed

Morales, Juan M; Moorcroft, Paul R; Matthiopoulos, Jason; Frair, Jacqueline L; Kie, John G; Powell, Roger A; Merrill, Evelyn H; Haydon, Daniel T

2010-07-27

While the mechanistic links between animal movement and population dynamics are ecologically obvious, it is much less clear when knowledge of animal movement is a prerequisite for understanding and predicting population dynamics. GPS and other technologies enable detailed tracking of animal location concurrently with acquisition of landscape data and information on individual physiology. These tools can be used to refine our understanding of the mechanistic links between behaviour and individual condition through 'spatially informed' movement models where time allocation to different behaviours affects individual survival and reproduction. For some species, socially informed models that address the movements and average fitness of differently sized groups and how they are affected by fission-fusion processes at relevant temporal scales are required. Furthermore, as most animals revisit some places and avoid others based on their previous experiences, we foresee the incorporation of long-term memory and intention in movement models. The way animals move has important consequences for the degree of mixing that we expect to find both within a population and between individuals of different species. The mixing rate dictates the level of detail required by models to capture the influence of heterogeneity and the dynamics of intra- and interspecific interaction.

Microgeographic and temporal genetic variation in populations of the bluetongue virus vector Culicoides variipennis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae).

PubMed

Tabachnick, W J

1992-05-01

Seven Colorado populations of the bluetongue virus vector Culicoides varipennis (Coquillett) were analyzed for genetic variation at 19-21 isozyme loci. Permanent populations, which overwinter as larvae, showed little temporal genetic change at 19 loci. PGD and MDH showed seasonal changes in gene frequencies, attributable to selection at two permanent populations. Two temporary populations showed low heterozygosity compared with permanent populations. Independent estimates of gene flow, calculated using FST and the private allele method, were Nm* = 2.15 and 6.95, respectively. Colorado C. variipennis permanent populations showed high levels of gene flow which prevented significant genetic differentiation due to genetic drift. Temporary populations showed significant gene frequency differences from nearby permanent populations due to the "founder effect" associated with chance colonization.

Vegetation changes associated with a population irruption by Roosevelt elk

USGS Publications Warehouse

Starns, H D; Weckerly, Floyd W.; Ricca, Mark; Duarte, Adam

2015-01-01

Interactions between large herbivores and their food supply are central to the study of population dynamics. We assessed temporal and spatial patterns in meadow plant biomass over a 23-year period for meadow complexes that were spatially linked to three distinct populations of Roosevelt elk (Cervus elaphus roosevelti) in northwestern California. Our objectives were to determine whether the plant community exhibited a tolerant or resistant response when elk population growth became irruptive. Plant biomass for the three meadow complexes inhabited by the elk populations was measured using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which was derived from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper imagery. Elk populations exhibited different patterns of growth through the time series, whereby one population underwent a complete four-stage irruptive growth pattern while the other two did not. Temporal changes in NDVI for the meadow complex used by the irruptive population suggested a decline in forage biomass during the end of the dry season and a temporal decline in spatial variation of NDVI at the peak of plant biomass in May. Conversely, no such patterns were detected in the meadow complexes inhabited by the nonirruptive populations. Our findings suggest that the meadow complex used by the irruptive elk population may have undergone changes in plant community composition favoring plants that were resistant to elk grazing.

Modelling emergence of oscillations in communicating bacteria: a structured approach from one to many cells

PubMed Central

Mina, Petros; di Bernardo, Mario; Savery, Nigel J.; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira

2013-01-01

Population-level measurements of phenotypic behaviour in biological systems may not necessarily reflect individual cell behaviour. To assess qualitative changes in the behaviour of a single cell, when alone and when part of a community, we developed an agent-based model describing the metabolic states of a population of quorum-coupled cells. The modelling is motivated by published experimental work of a synthetic genetic regulatory network (GRN) used in Escherichia coli cells that exhibit oscillatory behaviour across the population. To decipher the mechanisms underlying oscillations in the system, we investigate the behaviour of the model via numerical simulation and bifurcation analysis. In particular, we study the effect of an increase in population size as well as the spatio-temporal behaviour of the model. Our results demonstrate that oscillations are possible only in the presence of a high concentration of the coupling chemical and are due to a time scale separation in key regulatory components of the system. The model suggests that the population establishes oscillatory behaviour as the system's preferred stable state. This is achieved via an effective increase in coupling across the population. We conclude that population effects in GRN design need to be taken into consideration and be part of the design process. This is important in planning intervention strategies or designing specific cell behaviours. PMID:23135248

Modelling emergence of oscillations in communicating bacteria: a structured approach from one to many cells.

PubMed

Mina, Petros; di Bernardo, Mario; Savery, Nigel J; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira

2013-01-06

Population-level measurements of phenotypic behaviour in biological systems may not necessarily reflect individual cell behaviour. To assess qualitative changes in the behaviour of a single cell, when alone and when part of a community, we developed an agent-based model describing the metabolic states of a population of quorum-coupled cells. The modelling is motivated by published experimental work of a synthetic genetic regulatory network (GRN) used in Escherichia coli cells that exhibit oscillatory behaviour across the population. To decipher the mechanisms underlying oscillations in the system, we investigate the behaviour of the model via numerical simulation and bifurcation analysis. In particular, we study the effect of an increase in population size as well as the spatio-temporal behaviour of the model. Our results demonstrate that oscillations are possible only in the presence of a high concentration of the coupling chemical and are due to a time scale separation in key regulatory components of the system. The model suggests that the population establishes oscillatory behaviour as the system's preferred stable state. This is achieved via an effective increase in coupling across the population. We conclude that population effects in GRN design need to be taken into consideration and be part of the design process. This is important in planning intervention strategies or designing specific cell behaviours.

Breeding biology and microhabitat utilization of the intertidal isopod Idotea granulosa Rathke, in the Irish Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salemaa, Heikki

1986-03-01

The life history and distribution of the intertidal isopod Idotea granulosa were investigated at five rocky shore biotopes in the Isle of Man. I. granulosa breeds throughout the year in the Irish Sea. The breeding activity is highest in the early summer after the sexual maturation of the overwintered animals. At that period about 4% of the females were infested by Clypeoniscus sp. (Isopoda) which destroys the brood. A small proportion of the juveniles released in the early summer mature and breed in the autumn. In the winter Idotea populations consisted of juveniles, immature adults and old individuals which produce another brood. These large sized animals die off before the summer. Consequently, the age and size of the breeding I. granulosa fluctuates seasonally. The number of eggs is linearly related to the female length. The fecundity is highest in the spring and lowest in the autumn in all female size classes. I. granulosa inhabits an array of structurally different intertidal algae including the filamentous Cladophora rupestris, understory turfs Gigartina stellata, Laurencia pinnatifida and Corallina officinalis and the fucoids Fucus serratus and Ascophyllum nodosum. The distribution pattern of I. granulosa in examined intertidal communities is modified by the physiognomy of the algal microhabitats, by seasonal and spatial variation in wave agitation and by the breeding cycle of the population itself. Both the life history characteristics and distribution patterns are explained as adaptations to the spatially and temporally heterogeneous intertidal shores.

The surface urban heat island response to urban expansion: A panel analysis for the conterminous United States

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Xiaoma; Zhou, Yuyu; Asrar, Ghassem R.

Abstract: Urban heat island (UHI), a major concern worldwide, affects human health and energy use. With current and anticipated rapid urbanization, improved understanding of the response of UHI to urbanization is important for impact analysis and developing effective adaptation measures and mitigation strategies. Current studies mainly focus on a single or a few big cities and knowledge on the response of UHI to urbanization for large areas is very limited. Modelling UHI caused by urbanization for large areas that encompass multiple metropolitans remains a major scientific challenge/opportunity. As a major indicator of urbanization, urban area size lends itself well formore » representation in prognostic models to investigate the impacts of urbanization on UHI and the related socioeconomic and environmental effects. However, we have little knowledge on how UHI responds to the increase of urban area size, namely urban expansion, and its spatial and temporal variation over large areas. In this study, we investigated the relationship between surface UHI (SUHI) and urban area size in the climate and ecological context, and its spatial and temporal variations, based on a panel analysis of about 5000 urban areas of 10 km2 or larger, in the conterminous U.S. We found statistically significant positive relationship between SUHI and urban area size, and doubling the urban area size led to a SUHI increase of higher than 0.7 °C. The response of SUHI to the increase of urban area size shows spatial and temporal variations, with stronger SUHI increase in the Northern region of U.S., and during daytime and summer. Urban area size alone can explain as much as 87% of the variance of SUHI among cities studied, but with large spatial and temporal variations. Urban area size shows higher association with SUHI in regions where the thermal characteristics of land cover surrounding the urban are more homogeneous, such as in Eastern U.S., and in the summer months. This study provides a practical approach for large-scale assessment and modeling of the impact of urbanization on SUHI, both spatially and temporally, for developing mitigation/adaptation measures, especially in anticipated warmer climate conditions for the rest of this century.« less

The effect of area size and predation on the time to extinction of prairie vole populations. simulation studies via SERDYCA: a Spatially-Explicit Individual-Based Model of Rodent Dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kostova, T; Carlsen, T

2003-11-21

We present a spatially-explicit individual-based computational model of rodent dynamics, customized for the prairie vole species, M. Ochrogaster. The model is based on trophic relationships and represents important features such as territorial competition, mating behavior, density-dependent predation and dispersal out of the modeled spatial region. Vegetation growth and vole fecundity are dependent on climatic components. The results of simulations show that the model correctly predicts the overall temporal dynamics of the population density. Time-series analysis shows a very good match between the periods corresponding to the peak population density frequencies predicted by the model and the ones reported in themore » literature. The model is used to study the relation between persistence, landscape area and predation. We introduce the notions of average time to extinction (ATE) and persistence frequency to quantify persistence. While the ATE decreases with decrease of area, it is a bell-shaped function of the predation level: increasing for 'small' and decreasing for 'large' predation levels.« less

Coalescent Times and Patterns of Genetic Diversity in Species with Facultative Sex: Effects of Gene Conversion, Population Structure, and Heterogeneity

PubMed Central

Hartfield, Matthew; Wright, Stephen I.; Agrawal, Aneil F.

2016-01-01

Many diploid organisms undergo facultative sexual reproduction. However, little is currently known concerning the distribution of neutral genetic variation among facultative sexual organisms except in very simple cases. Understanding this distribution is important when making inferences about rates of sexual reproduction, effective population size, and demographic history. Here we extend coalescent theory in diploids with facultative sex to consider gene conversion, selfing, population subdivision, and temporal and spatial heterogeneity in rates of sex. In addition to analytical results for two-sample coalescent times, we outline a coalescent algorithm that accommodates the complexities arising from partial sex; this algorithm can be used to generate multisample coalescent distributions. A key result is that when sex is rare, gene conversion becomes a significant force in reducing diversity within individuals. This can reduce genomic signatures of infrequent sex (i.e., elevated within-individual allelic sequence divergence) or entirely reverse the predicted patterns. These models offer improved methods for assessing null patterns of molecular variation in facultative sexual organisms. PMID:26584902

Coalescent Times and Patterns of Genetic Diversity in Species with Facultative Sex: Effects of Gene Conversion, Population Structure, and Heterogeneity.

PubMed

Hartfield, Matthew; Wright, Stephen I; Agrawal, Aneil F

2016-01-01

Many diploid organisms undergo facultative sexual reproduction. However, little is currently known concerning the distribution of neutral genetic variation among facultative sexual organisms except in very simple cases. Understanding this distribution is important when making inferences about rates of sexual reproduction, effective population size, and demographic history. Here we extend coalescent theory in diploids with facultative sex to consider gene conversion, selfing, population subdivision, and temporal and spatial heterogeneity in rates of sex. In addition to analytical results for two-sample coalescent times, we outline a coalescent algorithm that accommodates the complexities arising from partial sex; this algorithm can be used to generate multisample coalescent distributions. A key result is that when sex is rare, gene conversion becomes a significant force in reducing diversity within individuals. This can reduce genomic signatures of infrequent sex (i.e., elevated within-individual allelic sequence divergence) or entirely reverse the predicted patterns. These models offer improved methods for assessing null patterns of molecular variation in facultative sexual organisms. Copyright © 2016 by the Genetics Society of America.

Orientation-Cue Invariant Population Responses to Contrast-Modulated and Phase-Reversed Contour Stimuli in Macaque V1 and V2

PubMed Central

An, Xu; Gong, Hongliang; Yin, Jiapeng; Wang, Xiaochun; Pan, Yanxia; Zhang, Xian; Lu, Yiliang; Yang, Yupeng; Toth, Zoltan; Schiessl, Ingo; McLoughlin, Niall; Wang, Wei

2014-01-01

Visual scenes can be readily decomposed into a variety of oriented components, the processing of which is vital for object segregation and recognition. In primate V1 and V2, most neurons have small spatio-temporal receptive fields responding selectively to oriented luminance contours (first order), while only a subgroup of neurons signal non-luminance defined contours (second order). So how is the orientation of second-order contours represented at the population level in macaque V1 and V2? Here we compared the population responses in macaque V1 and V2 to two types of second-order contour stimuli generated either by modulation of contrast or phase reversal with those to first-order contour stimuli. Using intrinsic signal optical imaging, we found that the orientation of second-order contour stimuli was represented invariantly in the orientation columns of both macaque V1 and V2. A physiologically constrained spatio-temporal energy model of V1 and V2 neuronal populations could reproduce all the recorded population responses. These findings suggest that, at the population level, the primate early visual system processes the orientation of second-order contours initially through a linear spatio-temporal filter mechanism. Our results of population responses to different second-order contour stimuli support the idea that the orientation maps in primate V1 and V2 can be described as a spatial-temporal energy map. PMID:25188576

Can mesophotic reefs replenish shallow reefs? Reduced coral reproductive performance casts a doubt.

PubMed

Shlesinger, Tom; Grinblat, Mila; Rapuano, Hanna; Amit, Tal; Loya, Yossi

2018-02-01

Mesophotic coral ecosystems (i.e., deep coral reefs at 30-120 m depth) appear to be thriving while many shallow reefs in the world are declining. Amid efforts to understand and manage their decline, it was suggested that mesophotic reefs might serve as natural refuges and a possible source of propagules for the shallow reefs. However, our knowledge of how reproductive performance of corals alters with depth is sparse. Here, we present a comprehensive study of the reproductive phenology, fecundity, and abundance of seven reef-building conspecific corals in shallow and mesophotic habitats. Significant differences were found in the synchrony and timing of gametogenesis and spawning between shallow and mesophotic coral populations. Thus, mesophotic populations exhibited delayed or protracted spawning events, which led to spawning of the mesophotic colonies in large proportions at times where the shallow ones had long been depleted of reproductive material. All species investigated demonstrated a substantial reduction in fecundity and/or oocyte sizes at mesophotic depths (40-60 m). Two species (Seriatopora hystrix and Galaxea fascicularis) displayed a reduction in both fecundity and oocyte size at mesophotic depths. Turbinaria reniformis had only reduced fecundity and Acropora squarrosa and Acropora valida only reduced oocyte size. In Montipora verrucosa, reduced fecundity was found during one annual reproductive season while, in the following year, only reduced oocyte size was found. In contrast, reduced oocyte size in mesophotic populations of Acropora squarrosa was consistent along three studied years. One species, Acropora pharaonis, was found to be infertile at mesophotic depths along two studied years. This indicates that reproductive performance decreases with depth; and that although some species are capable of reproducing at mesophotic depths, their contribution to the replenishment of shallow reefs may be inconsequential. Reduced reproductive performance with depth, combined with the possible narrower tolerance to environmental factors, further suggests that mesophotic corals may in fact be more vulnerable than previously conceived. Furthermore, we posit that the observed temporal segregation in reproduction could lead to assortative mating, and this, in turn, may facilitate adaptive divergence across depth. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Hierarchical Bayesian modeling of spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk in Georgia, USA: 2000-2007

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yin, Ping; Mu, Lan; Madden, Marguerite; Vena, John E.

2014-10-01

Lung cancer is the second most commonly diagnosed cancer in both men and women in Georgia, USA. However, the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer risk in Georgia have not been fully studied. Hierarchical Bayesian models are used here to explore the spatio-temporal patterns of lung cancer incidence risk by race and gender in Georgia for the period of 2000-2007. With the census tract level as the spatial scale and the 2-year period aggregation as the temporal scale, we compare a total of seven Bayesian spatio-temporal models including two under a separate modeling framework and five under a joint modeling framework. One joint model outperforms others based on the deviance information criterion. Results show that the northwest region of Georgia has consistently high lung cancer incidence risk for all population groups during the study period. In addition, there are inverse relationships between the socioeconomic status and the lung cancer incidence risk among all Georgian population groups, and the relationships in males are stronger than those in females. By mapping more reliable variations in lung cancer incidence risk at a relatively fine spatio-temporal scale for different Georgian population groups, our study aims to better support healthcare performance assessment, etiological hypothesis generation, and health policy making.

Spatial-temporal characteristics of lightning flash size in a supercell storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhixiao; Zheng, Dong; Zhang, Yijun; Lu, Gaopeng

2017-11-01

The flash sizes of a supercell storm, in New Mexico on October 5, 2004, are studied using the observations from the New Mexico Lightning Mapping Array and the Albuquerque, New Mexico, Doppler radar (KABX). First, during the temporal evolution of the supercell, the mean flash size is anti-correlated with the flash rate, following a unary power function, with a correlation coefficient of - 0.87. In addition, the mean flash size is linearly correlated with the area of reflectivity > 30 dBZ at 5 km normalized by the flash rate, with a correlation coefficient of 0.88. Second, in the horizontal, flash size increases along the direction from the region near the convection zone to the adjacent forward anvil. The region of minimum flash size usually corresponds to the region of maximum flash initiation and extent density. The horizontal correspondence between the mean flash size and the flash extent density can also be fitted by a unary power function, and the correlation coefficient is > 0.5 in 50% of the radar volume scans. Furthermore, the quality of fit is positively correlated to the convective intensity. Third, in the vertical direction, the height of the maximum flash initiation density is close to the height of maximum flash extent density, but corresponds to the height where the mean flash size is relatively small. In the discussion, the distribution of the small and dense charge regions when and where convection is vigorous in the storm, is deduced to be responsible for the relationship that flash size is temporally and spatially anti-correlated with flash rate and density, and the convective intensity.

Documentation of the Douglas-fir tussock moth outbreak-population model.

Treesearch

J.J. Colbert; W. Scott Overton; Curtis. White

1979-01-01

Documentation of three model versions: the Douglas-fir tussock moth population-branch model on (1) daily temporal resolution, (2) instart temporal resolution, and (3) the Douglas-fir tussock moth stand-outbreak model; the hierarchical framework and the conceptual paradigm used are described. The coupling of the model with a normal-stand model is discussed. The modeling...

Strong fluctuations in aboveground population size do not limit genetic diversity in populations of an endangered biennial species.

PubMed

Münzbergová, Zuzana; Šurinová, Maria; Husáková, Iveta; Brabec, Jiří

2018-04-26

Assessing genetic diversity within populations of rare species and understanding its determinants are crucial for effective species protection. While a lot is known about the relationships between genetic diversity, fitness, and current population size, very few studies explored the effects of past population size. Knowledge of past population size may, however, improve our ability to predict future population fates. We studied Gentianella praecox subsp. bohemica, a biennial species with extensive seed bank. We tested the effect of current, past minimal and maximal population size, and harmonic mean of population sizes within the last 15 years on genetic diversity and fitness. Maximum population size over the last 15 years was the best predictor of expected heterozygosity of the populations and was significantly related to current population size and management. Plant fitness was significantly related to current as well as maximum population size and expected heterozygosity. The results suggested that information on past population size may improve our understanding of contemporary genetic diversity across populations. They demonstrated that despite the strong fluctuations in population size, large reductions in population size do not result in immediate loss of genetic diversity and reduction of fitness within the populations. This is likely due to the seed bank of the species serving as reservoir of the genetic diversity of the populations. From a conservation point of view, this suggests that the restoration of small populations of short-lived species with permanent seed bank is possible as these populations may still be genetically diverse.

Incorporating precision, accuracy and alternative sampling designs into a continental monitoring program for colonial waterbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steinkamp, Melanie J.; Peterjohn, B.G.; Keisman, J.L.

2003-01-01

A comprehensive monitoring program for colonial waterbirds in North America has never existed. At smaller geographic scales, many states and provinces conduct surveys of colonial waterbird populations. Periodic regional surveys are conducted at varying times during the breeding season using a variety of survey methods, which complicates attempts to estimate population trends for most species. The US Geological Survey Patuxent Wildlife Research Center has recently started to coordinate colonial waterbird monitoring efforts throughout North America. A centralized database has been developed with an Internet-based data entry and retrieval page. The extent of existing colonial waterbird surveys has been defined, allowing gaps in coverage to be identified and basic inventories completed where desirable. To enable analyses of comparable data at regional or larger geographic scales, sampling populations through statistically sound sampling designs should supersede obtaining counts at every colony. Standardized breeding season survey techniques have been agreed upon and documented in a monitoring manual. Each survey in the manual has associated with it recommendations for bias estimation, and includes specific instructions on measuring detectability. The methods proposed in the manual are for developing reliable, comparable indices of population size to establish trend information at multiple spatial and temporal scales, but they will not result in robust estimates of total population numbers.

Developmental Changes in Morphology of the Middle and Posterior External Cranial Base in Modern Homo sapiens.

PubMed

Dalal, Deepal H; Smith, Heather F

2015-01-01

The basicranium has been described as phylogenetically informative, developmentally stable, and minimally affected by external factors and consequently plays an important role in cranial size and shape in subadult humans. Here basicranial variation of subadults from several modern human populations was investigated and the impact of genetic relatedness on basicranial morphological similarities was investigated. Three-dimensional landmark data were digitized from subadult basicrania from seven populations. Published molecular data on short tandem repeats were statistically compared to morphological data from three ontogenetic stages. Basicranial and temporal bone morphology both reflect genetic distances in childhood and adolescence (5-18 years), but not in infancy (<5 years). The occipital bone reflects genetic distances only in adolescence (13-18 years). The sphenoid bone does not reflect genetic distances at any ontogenetic stage but was the most diagnostic region evaluated, resulting in high rates of correct classification among populations. These results suggest that the ontogenetic processes driving basicranial development are complex and cannot be succinctly summarized across populations or basicranial regions. However, the fact that certain regions reflect genetic distances suggests that the morphology of these regions may be useful in reconstructing population history in specimens for which direct DNA evidence is unavailable, such as archaeological sites.

Is alloparenting helpful for Mednyi Island arctic foxes, Alopex lagopus semenovi?

PubMed

Kruchenkova, Elena P; Goltsman, Michael; Sergeev, Sergei; Macdonald, David W

2009-04-01

The Arctic Fox Alopex lagopus semenovi population on Mednyi Island is completely isolated and subsists largely by scavenging on seabird colonies, which have remained abundant and spatio-temporally predictable for many years. We compared population data at the beginning of 1976/1978 and some time after 1994-2005, finding an 85% decline in fox numbers due to disease, to assess the effect of population size on social structure. A total of 81 groups of known size and composition was observed during this 29-year period. Overall, helpers (usually non-lactating yearling females) occurred in 25.7% of groups, and in 32.4% of groups there were two or three lactating females. Female engagement in alloparental behaviour decreased, but not statistically significantly, after the decline in population density. Total food availability was apparently constant throughout the study period, and therefore, the amount available per individual was much higher later in the study. Both communally nursing females and helpers brought food and helped to guard the litter. However, the benefits of communal rearing were unclear. While cubs were left without guards significantly more rarely in the groups with an additional adult, the number of cubs weaned per lactating female was greater in groups with one (3.93 +/- 1.60), as opposed to two or three (3.06 +/- 0.92), lactating females. Survival of cubs to 1 year of age in the groups with two lactating females and/or with helpers was lower than that in the families with one lactating female without helpers (22.2% vs 32.2%). Fewer second-generation litters were born to foxes produced by composite families than to those produced by pairs. Reproductive adults producing by pairs had, on average, 1.23 (+/-1.72) second-generation litters. In groups that initially included additional adults, the average number of second-generation litters per reproductive female was 0.21 (+/-0.49) and 0.46 (+/-0.81) litters per male. Thus, according to three measures, increased group size had no apparent positive impact on reproductive success. The increased parental investment and enhanced guarding of the cubs in the larger families could be beneficial under conditions of high population density and a saturated biotope to which the island fox population was presumably adapted before the population crash in the late 1970s.

Is alloparenting helpful for Mednyi Island arctic foxes, Alopex lagopus semenovi?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruchenkova, Elena P.; Goltsman, Michael; Sergeev, Sergei; MacDonald, David W.

2009-04-01

The Arctic Fox Alopex lagopus semenovi population on Mednyi Island is completely isolated and subsists largely by scavenging on seabird colonies, which have remained abundant and spatio-temporally predictable for many years. We compared population data at the beginning of 1976/1978 and some time after 1994-2005, finding an 85% decline in fox numbers due to disease, to assess the effect of population size on social structure. A total of 81 groups of known size and composition was observed during this 29-year period. Overall, helpers (usually non-lactating yearling females) occurred in 25.7% of groups, and in 32.4% of groups there were two or three lactating females. Female engagement in alloparental behaviour decreased, but not statistically significantly, after the decline in population density. Total food availability was apparently constant throughout the study period, and therefore, the amount available per individual was much higher later in the study. Both communally nursing females and helpers brought food and helped to guard the litter. However, the benefits of communal rearing were unclear. While cubs were left without guards significantly more rarely in the groups with an additional adult, the number of cubs weaned per lactating female was greater in groups with one (3.93 ± 1.60), as opposed to two or three (3.06 ± 0.92), lactating females. Survival of cubs to 1 year of age in the groups with two lactating females and/or with helpers was lower than that in the families with one lactating female without helpers (22.2% vs 32.2%). Fewer second-generation litters were born to foxes produced by composite families than to those produced by pairs. Reproductive adults producing by pairs had, on average, 1.23 (±1.72) second-generation litters. In groups that initially included additional adults, the average number of second-generation litters per reproductive female was 0.21 (±0.49) and 0.46 (±0.81) litters per male. Thus, according to three measures, increased group size had no apparent positive impact on reproductive success. The increased parental investment and enhanced guarding of the cubs in the larger families could be beneficial under conditions of high population density and a saturated biotope to which the island fox population was presumably adapted before the population crash in the late 1970s.

The escalatory Red Queen: Population extinction and replacement following arms race dynamics in poplar rust.

PubMed

Persoons, Antoine; Hayden, Katherine J; Fabre, Bénédicte; Frey, Pascal; De Mita, Stéphane; Tellier, Aurélien; Halkett, Fabien

2017-04-01

Host-parasite systems provide convincing examples of Red Queen co-evolutionary dynamics. Yet, a key process underscored in Van Valen's theory - that arms race dynamics can result in extinction - has never been documented. One reason for this may be that most sampling designs lack the breadth needed to illuminate the rapid pace of adaptation by pathogen populations. In this study, we used a 25-year temporal sampling to decipher the demographic history of a plant pathogen: the poplar rust fungus, Melampsora larici-populina. A major adaptive event occurred in 1994 with the breakdown of R7 resistance carried by several poplar cultivars widely planted in Western Europe since 1982. The corresponding virulence rapidly spread in M. larici-populina populations and nearly reached fixation in northern France, even on susceptible hosts. Using both temporal records of virulence profiles and temporal population genetic data, our analyses revealed that (i) R7 resistance breakdown resulted in the emergence of a unique and homogeneous genetic group, the so-called cultivated population, which predominated in northern France for about 20 years, (ii) selection for Vir7 individuals brought with it multiple other virulence types via hitchhiking, resulting in an overall increase in the population-wide number of virulence types and (iii) - above all - the emergence of the cultivated population superseded the initial population which predominated at the same place before R7 resistance breakdown. Our temporal analysis illustrates how antagonistic co-evolution can lead to population extinction and replacement, hence providing direct evidence for the escalation process which is at the core of Red Queen dynamics. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Towards a real-time wide area motion imagery system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, R. I.; Foulkes, S. B.

2015-10-01

It is becoming increasingly important in both the defence and security domains to conduct persistent wide area surveillance (PWAS) of large populations of targets. Wide Area Motion Imagery (WAMI) is a key technique for achieving this wide area surveillance. The recent development of multi-million pixel sensors has provided sensors with wide field of view replete with sufficient resolution for detection and tracking of objects of interest to be achieved across these extended areas of interest. WAMI sensors simultaneously provide high spatial and temporal resolutions, giving extreme pixel counts over large geographical areas. The high temporal resolution is required to enable effective tracking of targets. The provision of wide area coverage with high frame rates generates data deluge issues; these are especially profound if the sensor is mounted on an airborne platform, with finite data-link bandwidth and processing power that is constrained by size, weight and power (SWAP) limitations. These issues manifest themselves either as bottlenecks in the transmission of the imagery off-board or as latency in the time taken to analyse the data due to limited computational processing power.

Ecological biomechanics of benthic organisms: life history, mechanical design and temporal patterns of mechanical stress.

PubMed

Koehl, M A

1999-12-01

We can gain biomechanical insights if we couple knowledge of the environments, ecological roles and life history strategies of organisms with our laboratory analyses of their mechanical function or fluid dynamics, as illustrated by studies of the mechanical design of bottom-dwelling marine organisms. Obviously, measurements of the spatial and temporal distribution of loads on an organism in nature reveal the magnitudes and rates at which biomechanical tests should be performed in the laboratory. Furthermore, knowledge of the population biology and ecological interactions of the organisms being studied is crucial to determine when during the life of an individual particular aspects of mechanical performance should be measured; not only can the size, shape and material properties of an individual change during ontogeny, but so can its habitat, activities and ecological role. Such ecological information is also necessary to determine whether the aspects of mechanical performance being studied are biologically important, i.e. whether they affect the survivorship or fitness of the organisms. My point in raising these examples is to illustrate how ecological studies can enhance or change our understanding of biomechanical function.

Temporal compressive imaging for video

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qun; Zhang, Linxia; Ke, Jun

2018-01-01

In many situations, imagers are required to have higher imaging speed, such as gunpowder blasting analysis and observing high-speed biology phenomena. However, measuring high-speed video is a challenge to camera design, especially, in infrared spectrum. In this paper, we reconstruct a high-frame-rate video from compressive video measurements using temporal compressive imaging (TCI) with a temporal compression ratio T=8. This means that, 8 unique high-speed temporal frames will be obtained from a single compressive frame using a reconstruction algorithm. Equivalently, the video frame rates is increased by 8 times. Two methods, two-step iterative shrinkage/threshold (TwIST) algorithm and the Gaussian mixture model (GMM) method, are used for reconstruction. To reduce reconstruction time and memory usage, each frame of size 256×256 is divided into patches of size 8×8. The influence of different coded mask to reconstruction is discussed. The reconstruction qualities using TwIST and GMM are also compared.

Phenomenology of spectrally and temporally resolved infrared emissions from bomb detonations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gross, Kevin; Dills, Anthony; Tuttle, Ron; Perram, Glen

2002-10-01

The remote sensing of infrared signatures from exothermic reactions during military operations, including missile launches, muzzle flashes, and bomb detonations has been studied using fast FTIR techniques. Battle space characterization includes the ability to classify the munitions type, size, and other characteristics. One possible approach to munitions classification is to understand the spectral and temporal signatures from explosive ordinance. To investigate this possibility, experimental data has been collected remotely from ground-based sensors, processed, and analyzed for several conventional munitions. Field observations of 56 detonation events included a set of aircraft delivered ordnance and a series of static ground detonations for a variety of bomb sizes, types and environmental conditions. The emission is well represented by a gray body with continuously decreasing temperature and characteristic decay times of 1-4 s, providing only limited variability with detonation conditions. However, the fireball size times the emissivity as a function of time can be determined from the spectra without imaging and provides a more sensitive signature. The degree of temporal overlap as a function of frequency for a pair of detonation events provides a very sensitive discriminator for explosion conditions. The temporal overlap decreases with increasing emission frequency for all the observed events, indicating more information content at higher frequencies. Finally, the temporal nature of the emissions has been analyzed, providing a significant reduction in the dimensionality of the data.

Temporal variation of floc size and settling velocity in the Dollard estuary

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van der Lee, Willem T. B.

2000-09-01

Temporal changes in floc size and settling velocity were measured in the Dollard estuary with an under water video camera. The results show that the flocs in the Dollard are very heterogeneous and that larger flocs have much lower effective densities than smaller flocs. Due to this density decrease, floc settling velocities show only a minor increase with increasing floc size. Floc sizes and settling velocities correlate with the suspended sediment concentration (SSC) on a tidal time scale, but not on a seasonal time scale. On a seasonal time scale floc sizes depend on the binding properties of the sediment, while floc settling velocities show hardly any variation, as an increase in floc size is mainly counterbalanced by a decrease in floc density. Tidal variations in settling velocity occur but cannot be modeled solely as a function of SSC, as the relation between floc size/settling velocity and SSC constantly changes in time and space. Settling velocity variations throughout the tide can however be expressed as a function of tidal phase.

A Neural Model for Temporal Order Judgments and Their Active Recalibration: A Common Mechanism for Space and Time?

PubMed Central

Cai, Mingbo; Stetson, Chess; Eagleman, David M.

2012-01-01

When observers experience a constant delay between their motor actions and sensory feedback, their perception of the temporal order between actions and sensations adapt (Stetson et al., 2006). We present here a novel neural model that can explain temporal order judgments (TOJs) and their recalibration. Our model employs three ubiquitous features of neural systems: (1) information pooling, (2) opponent processing, and (3) synaptic scaling. Specifically, the model proposes that different populations of neurons encode different delays between motor-sensory events, the outputs of these populations feed into rivaling neural populations (encoding “before” and “after”), and the activity difference between these populations determines the perceptual judgment. As a consequence of synaptic scaling of input weights, motor acts which are consistently followed by delayed sensory feedback will cause the network to recalibrate its point of subjective simultaneity. The structure of our model raises the possibility that recalibration of TOJs is a temporal analog to the motion aftereffect (MAE). In other words, identical neural mechanisms may be used to make perceptual determinations about both space and time. Our model captures behavioral recalibration results for different numbers of adapting trials and different adapting delays. In line with predictions of the model, we additionally demonstrate that temporal recalibration can last through time, in analogy to storage of the MAE. PMID:23130010

Three Decades of Farmed Escapees in the Wild: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Atlantic Salmon Population Genetic Structure throughout Norway

PubMed Central

Glover, Kevin A.; Quintela, María; Wennevik, Vidar; Besnier, François; Sørvik, Anne G. E.; Skaala, Øystein

2012-01-01

Each year, hundreds of thousands of domesticated farmed Atlantic salmon escape into the wild. In Norway, which is the world’s largest commercial producer, many native Atlantic salmon populations have experienced large numbers of escapees on the spawning grounds for the past 15–30 years. In order to study the potential genetic impact, we conducted a spatio-temporal analysis of 3049 fish from 21 populations throughout Norway, sampled in the period 1970–2010. Based upon the analysis of 22 microsatellites, individual admixture, FST and increased allelic richness revealed temporal genetic changes in six of the populations. These changes were highly significant in four of them. For example, 76% and 100% of the fish comprising the contemporary samples for the rivers Vosso and Opo were excluded from their respective historical samples at P = 0.001. Based upon several genetic parameters, including simulations, genetic drift was excluded as the primary cause of the observed genetic changes. In the remaining 15 populations, some of which had also been exposed to high numbers of escapees, clear genetic changes were not detected. Significant population genetic structuring was observed among the 21 populations in the historical (global FST = 0.038) and contemporary data sets (global FST = 0.030), although significantly reduced with time (P = 0.008). This reduction was especially distinct when looking at the six populations displaying temporal changes (global FST dropped from 0.058 to 0.039, P = 0.006). We draw two main conclusions: 1. The majority of the historical population genetic structure throughout Norway still appears to be retained, suggesting a low to modest overall success of farmed escapees in the wild; 2. Genetic introgression of farmed escapees in native salmon populations has been strongly population-dependent, and it appears to be linked with the density of the native population. PMID:22916215

Temporal profile of body temperature in acute ischemic stroke: relation to infarct size and outcome.

PubMed

Geurts, Marjolein; Scheijmans, Féline E V; van Seeters, Tom; Biessels, Geert J; Kappelle, L Jaap; Velthuis, Birgitta K; van der Worp, H Bart

2016-11-21

High body temperatures after ischemic stroke have been associated with larger infarct size, but the temporal profile of this relation is unknown. We assess the relation between temporal profile of body temperature and infarct size and functional outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke. In 419 patients with acute ischemic stroke we assessed the relation between body temperature on admission and during the first 3 days with both infarct size and functional outcome. Infarct size was measured in milliliters on CT or MRI after 3 days. Poor functional outcome was defined as a modified Rankin Scale score ≥3 at 3 months. Body temperature on admission was not associated with infarct size or poor outcome in adjusted analyses. By contrast, each additional 1.0 °C in body temperature on day 1 was associated with 0.31 ml larger infarct size (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.04-0.59), on day 2 with 1.13 ml larger infarct size(95% CI, 0.83-1.43), and on day 3 with 0.80 ml larger infarct size (95% CI, 0.48-1.12), in adjusted linear regression analyses. Higher peak body temperatures on days two and three were also associated with poor outcome (adjusted relative risks per additional 1.0 °C in body temperature, 1.52 (95% CI, 1.17-1.99) and 1.47 (95% CI, 1.22-1.77), respectively). Higher peak body temperatures during the first days after ischemic stroke, rather than on admission, are associated with larger infarct size and poor functional outcome. This suggests that prevention of high temperatures may improve outcome if continued for at least 3 days.

Sample size considerations using mathematical models: an example with Chlamydia trachomatis infection and its sequelae pelvic inflammatory disease.

PubMed

Herzog, Sereina A; Low, Nicola; Berghold, Andrea

2015-06-19

The success of an intervention to prevent the complications of an infection is influenced by the natural history of the infection. Assumptions about the temporal relationship between infection and the development of sequelae can affect the predicted effect size of an intervention and the sample size calculation. This study investigates how a mathematical model can be used to inform sample size calculations for a randomised controlled trial (RCT) using the example of Chlamydia trachomatis infection and pelvic inflammatory disease (PID). We used a compartmental model to imitate the structure of a published RCT. We considered three different processes for the timing of PID development, in relation to the initial C. trachomatis infection: immediate, constant throughout, or at the end of the infectious period. For each process we assumed that, of all women infected, the same fraction would develop PID in the absence of an intervention. We examined two sets of assumptions used to calculate the sample size in a published RCT that investigated the effect of chlamydia screening on PID incidence. We also investigated the influence of the natural history parameters of chlamydia on the required sample size. The assumed event rates and effect sizes used for the sample size calculation implicitly determined the temporal relationship between chlamydia infection and PID in the model. Even small changes in the assumed PID incidence and relative risk (RR) led to considerable differences in the hypothesised mechanism of PID development. The RR and the sample size needed per group also depend on the natural history parameters of chlamydia. Mathematical modelling helps to understand the temporal relationship between an infection and its sequelae and can show how uncertainties about natural history parameters affect sample size calculations when planning a RCT.

Evaluating spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality for recreational fisheries with limited catch data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Li, Yan; Wagner, Tyler; Jiao, Yan; Lorantas, Robert M.; Murphy, Cheryl

2018-01-01

Understanding the spatial and temporal variability in life-history traits among populations is essential for the management of recreational fisheries. However, valuable freshwater recreational fish species often suffer from a lack of catch information. In this study, we demonstrated the use of an approach to estimate the spatial and temporal variability in growth and mortality in the absence of catch data and apply the method to riverine smallmouth bass (Micropterus dolomieu) populations in Pennsylvania, USA. Our approach included a growth analysis and a length-based analysis that estimates mortality. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we examined spatial variability in growth and mortality by assuming parameters vary spatially but remain constant over time and temporal variability by assuming parameters vary spatially and temporally. The estimated growth and mortality of smallmouth bass showed substantial variability over time and across rivers. We explored the relationships of the estimated growth and mortality with spring water temperature and spring flow. Growth rate was likely to be positively correlated with these two factors, while young mortality was likely to be positively correlated with spring flow. The spatially and temporally varying growth and mortality suggest that smallmouth bass populations across rivers may respond differently to management plans and disturbance such as environmental contamination and land-use change. The analytical approach can be extended to other freshwater recreational species that also lack of catch data. The approach could also be useful in developing population assessments with erroneous catch data or be used as a model sensitivity scenario to verify traditional models even when catch data are available.

Sertoli cell androgen receptor expression regulates temporal fetal and adult Leydig cell differentiation, function, and population size.

PubMed

Hazra, Rasmani; Jimenez, Mark; Desai, Reena; Handelsman, David J; Allan, Charles M

2013-09-01

We recently created a mouse model displaying precocious Sertoli cell (SC) and spermatogenic development induced by SC-specific transgenic androgen receptor expression (TgSCAR). Here we reveal that TgSCAR regulates the development, function, and absolute number of Leydig cells (LCs). Total fetal and adult type LC numbers were reduced in postnatal and adult TgSCAR vs control testes, despite normal circulating LH levels. Normal LC to SC ratios found in TgSCAR testes indicate that SC androgen receptor (SCAR)-mediated activity confers a quorum-dependent relationship between total SC and LC numbers. TgSCAR enhanced LC differentiation, shown by elevated ratios of advanced to immature LC types, and reduced LC proliferation in postnatal TgSCAR vs control testes. Postnatal TgSCAR testes displayed up-regulated expression of coupled ligand-receptor transcripts (Amh-Amhr2, Dhh-Ptch1, Pdgfa-Pdgfra) for potential SCAR-stimulated paracrine pathways, which may coordinate LC differentiation. Neonatal TgSCAR testes displayed normal T and dihydrotestosterone levels despite differential changes to steroidogenic gene expression, with down-regulated Star, Cyp11a1, and Cyp17a1 expression contrasting with up-regulated Hsd3b1, Hsd17b3, and Srd5a1 expression. TgSCAR males also displayed elevated postnatal and normal adult serum testosterone levels, despite reduced LC numbers. Enhanced adult-type LC steroidogenic output was revealed by increased pubertal testicular T, dihydrotestosterone, 3α-diol and 3β-diol levels per LC and up-regulated steroidogenic gene (Nr5a1, Lhr, Cyp11a1, Cyp17a1, Hsd3b6, Srd5a1) expression in pubertal or adult TgSCAR vs control males, suggesting regulatory mechanisms maintain androgen levels independently of absolute LC numbers. Our unique gain-of-function TgSCAR model has revealed that SCAR activity controls temporal LC differentiation, steroidogenic function, and population size.

Annual variation of spawning Cutthroat Trout in a small Western USA stream: A case study with implications for the conservation of potamodromous trout life history diversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bennett, Stephen; Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Roper, Brett B.; Budy, Phaedra

2014-01-01

Little is known about the variability in the spatial and temporal distribution of spawning potamodromous trout despite decades of research directed at salmonid spawning ecology and the increased awareness that conserving life history diversity should be a focus of management. We monitored a population of fluvial–resident Bonneville Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii utah in a tributary to the Logan River, Utah, from 2006 to 2012 to gain insight into the distribution and timing of spawning and what factors may influence these spawning activities. We monitored Bonneville Cutthroat Trout using redd surveys with multiple observers and georeferenced redd locations. We documented an extended spawning period that lasted from late April to mid-July. The onset, median, and end of spawning was best predicted by the mean maximum water temperature during the first 13 weeks of the year (F = 130. 4, df = 5, R2 = 0.96, P < 0.0001) with spawning beginning and ending earlier in years that had warmer water temperatures prior to spawning. The distribution of redds was clumped each year and the relative density of redds was greater in a reach dominated by dams constructed by beavers Castor canadensis. Both dam failure and construction appeared to be responsible for creating new spawning habitat that was quickly occupied, demonstrating rapid temporal response to local habitat changes. Bonneville Cutthroat Trout appeared to establish and defend a redd for up to 2 d, and spawning most often occurred between similar-sized individuals. Spawning surveys for potamodromous trout are an underutilized tool that could be used to better understand the distribution and timing of spawning as well as determine the size and trends of the reproducing portion of populations of management concern. Without efforts to document the diversity of this important aspect of potamodromous trout life history, prioritization of conservation will be problematic.

Annual variation of spawning cutthroat trout in a small western USA stream: a case study with implications for the conservation of potamodromous trout life history diversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bennett, Stephen; Al-Chokhachy, Robert; Roper, Brett B.; Budy, Phaedra

2014-01-01

Little is known about the variability in the spatial and temporal distribution of spawning potamodromous trout despite decades of research directed at salmonid spawning ecology and the increased awareness that conserving life history diversity should be a focus of management. We monitored a population of fluvial–resident Bonneville Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii utah in a tributary to the Logan River, Utah, from 2006 to 2012 to gain insight into the distribution and timing of spawning and what factors may influence these spawning activities. We monitored Bonneville Cutthroat Trout using redd surveys with multiple observers and georeferenced redd locations. We documented an extended spawning period that lasted from late April to mid-July. The onset, median, and end of spawning was best predicted by the mean maximum water temperature during the first 13 weeks of the year (F = 130. 4, df = 5, R2 = 0.96, P < 0.0001) with spawning beginning and ending earlier in years that had warmer water temperatures prior to spawning. The distribution of redds was clumped each year and the relative density of redds was greater in a reach dominated by dams constructed by beavers Castor canadensis. Both dam failure and construction appeared to be responsible for creating new spawning habitat that was quickly occupied, demonstrating rapid temporal response to local habitat changes. Bonneville Cutthroat Trout appeared to establish and defend a redd for up to 2 d, and spawning most often occurred between similar-sized individuals. Spawning surveys for potamodromous trout are an underutilized tool that could be used to better understand the distribution and timing of spawning as well as determine the size and trends of the reproducing portion of populations of management concern. Without efforts to document the diversity of this important aspect of potamodromous trout life history, prioritization of conservation will be problematic.

Spatio-temporal pattern analysis for evaluation of the spread of human infections with avian influenza A(H7N9) virus in China, 2013-2014.

PubMed

Dong, Wen; Yang, Kun; Xu, Quanli; Liu, Lin; Chen, Juan

2017-10-24

A large number (n = 460) of A(H7N9) human infections have been reported in China from March 2013 through December 2014, and H7N9 outbreaks in humans became an emerging issue for China health, which have caused numerous disease outbreaks in domestic poultry and wild bird populations, and threatened human health severely. The aims of this study were to investigate the directional trend of the epidemic and to identify the significant presence of spatial-temporal clustering of influenza A(H7N9) human cases between March 2013 and December 2014. Three distinct epidemic phases of A(H7N9) human infections were identified in this study. In each phase, standard deviational ellipse analysis was conducted to examine the directional trend of disease spreading, and retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic was then used to identify the spatio-temporal cluster patterns of H7N9 outbreaks in humans. The ever-changing location and the increasing size of the three identified standard deviational ellipses showed that the epidemic moved from east to southeast coast, and hence to some central regions, with a future epidemiological trend of continue dispersing to more central regions of China, and a few new human cases might also appear in parts of the western China. Furthermore, A(H7N9) human infections were clustering in space and time in the first two phases with five significant spatio-temporal clusters (p < 0.05), but there was no significant cluster identified in phase III. There was a new epidemiologic pattern that the decrease in significant spatio-temporal cluster of A(H7N9) human infections was accompanied with an obvious spatial expansion of the outbreaks during the study period, and identification of the spatio-temporal patterns of the epidemic can provide valuable insights for better understanding the spreading dynamics of the disease in China.

Geographical and Temporal Body Size Variation in a Reptile: Roles of Sex, Ecology, Phylogeny and Ecology Structured in Phylogeny

PubMed Central

Aragón, Pedro; Fitze, Patrick S.

2014-01-01

Geographical body size variation has long interested evolutionary biologists, and a range of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the observed patterns. It is considered to be more puzzling in ectotherms than in endotherms, and integrative approaches are necessary for testing non-exclusive alternative mechanisms. Using lacertid lizards as a model, we adopted an integrative approach, testing different hypotheses for both sexes while incorporating temporal, spatial, and phylogenetic autocorrelation at the individual level. We used data on the Spanish Sand Racer species group from a field survey to disentangle different sources of body size variation through environmental and individual genetic data, while accounting for temporal and spatial autocorrelation. A variation partitioning method was applied to separate independent and shared components of ecology and phylogeny, and estimated their significance. Then, we fed-back our models by controlling for relevant independent components. The pattern was consistent with the geographical Bergmann's cline and the experimental temperature-size rule: adults were larger at lower temperatures (and/or higher elevations). This result was confirmed with additional multi-year independent data-set derived from the literature. Variation partitioning showed no sex differences in phylogenetic inertia but showed sex differences in the independent component of ecology; primarily due to growth differences. Interestingly, only after controlling for independent components did primary productivity also emerge as an important predictor explaining size variation in both sexes. This study highlights the importance of integrating individual-based genetic information, relevant ecological parameters, and temporal and spatial autocorrelation in sex-specific models to detect potentially important hidden effects. Our individual-based approach devoted to extract and control for independent components was useful to reveal hidden effects linked with alternative non-exclusive hypothesis, such as those of primary productivity. Also, including measurement date allowed disentangling and controlling for short-term temporal autocorrelation reflecting sex-specific growth plasticity. PMID:25090025

Toward a theory of punctuated subsistence change

PubMed Central

Ullah, Isaac I. T.; Kuijt, Ian; Freeman, Jacob

2015-01-01

Discourse on the origins and spread of domesticated species focuses on universal causal explanations or unique regional or temporal trajectories. Despite new data as to the context and physical processes of early domestication, researchers still do not understand the types of system-level reorganizations required to transition from foraging to farming. Drawing upon dynamical systems theory and the concepts of attractors and repellors, we develop an understanding of subsistence transition and a description of variation in, and emergence of, human subsistence systems. The overlooked role of attractors and repellors in these systems helps explain why the origins of agriculture occurred quickly in some times and places, but slowly in others. A deeper understanding of the interactions of a limited set of variables that control the size of attractors (a proxy for resilience), such as population size, number of dry months, net primary productivity, and settlement fixity, provides new insights into the origin and spread of domesticated species in human economies. PMID:26195737

Semantic disturbance in schizophrenia and its relationship to the cognitive neuroscience of attention

PubMed Central

Nestor, P.G.; Han, S.D.; Niznikiewicz, M.; Salisbury, D.; Spencer, K.; Shenton, M.E.; McCarley, R.W.

2010-01-01

We view schizophrenia as producing a failure of attentional modulation that leads to a breakdown in the selective enhancement or inhibition of semantic/lexical representations whose biological substrata are widely distributed across left (dominant) temporal and frontal lobes. Supporting behavioral evidence includes word recall studies that have pointed to a disturbance in connectivity (associative strength) but not network size (number of associates) in patients with schizophrenia. Paralleling these findings are recent neural network simulation studies of the abnormal connectivity effect in schizophrenia through ‘lesioning’ network connection weights while holding constant network size. Supporting evidence at the level of biology are in vitro studies examining N-methyl-d-aspartate (NMDA) receptor antagonists on recurrent inhibition; simulations in neural populations with realistically modeled biophysical properties show NMDA antagonists produce a schizophrenia-like disturbance in pattern association. We propose a similar failure of NMDA-mediated recurrent inhibition as a candidate biological substrate for attention and semantic anomalies of schizophrenia. PMID:11454433

Temporal variability and memory in sediment transport in an experimental step-pool channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saletti, Matteo; Molnar, Peter; Zimmermann, André; Hassan, Marwan A.; Church, Michael

2015-11-01

Temporal dynamics of sediment transport in steep channels using two experiments performed in a steep flume (8%) with natural sediment composed of 12 grain sizes are studied. High-resolution (1 s) time series of sediment transport were measured for individual grain-size classes at the outlet of the flume for different combinations of sediment input rates and flow discharges. Our aim in this paper is to quantify (a) the relation of discharge and sediment transport and (b) the nature and strength of memory in grain-size-dependent transport. None of the simple statistical descriptors of sediment transport (mean, extreme values, and quantiles) display a clear relation with water discharge, in fact a large variability between discharge and sediment transport is observed. Instantaneous transport rates have probability density functions with heavy tails. Bed load bursts have a coarser grain-size distribution than that of the entire experiment. We quantify the strength and nature of memory in sediment transport rates by estimating the Hurst exponent and the autocorrelation coefficient of the time series for different grain sizes. Our results show the presence of the Hurst phenomenon in transport rates, indicating long-term memory which is grain-size dependent. The short-term memory in coarse grain transport increases with temporal aggregation and this reveals the importance of the sampling duration of bed load transport rates in natural streams, especially for large fractions.

[Spatio-temporal process and the influencing factors on influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Changsha].

PubMed

Xiao, Hong; Tian, Huai-yu; Zhao, Jian; Zhang, Xi-xing; Zhu, Pei-juan; Liu, Ru-chun; Chen, Tian-mu

2011-06-01

To analyze the spatio-temporal process on 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Changsha and the influencing factors during the diffusion process. Data were from the following 5 sources, influenza A (H1N1) pandemic gathered in 2009, Geographic Information System (GIS) of Changsha, the broad range of theorems and techniques of hot spot analysis, spatio-temporal process analysis and Spearman correlation analysis. Hot spot areas appeared to be more in the economically developed areas, such as cities and townships. The cluster of spatial-temporal distribution of influenza A (H1N1) pandemic was most likely appearing in Liuyang city (RR = 22.70, P < 0.01). The secondary cluster would include districts as Yuelu (RR = 6.49, P < 0.01), Yuhua (RR = 81.63, P < 0.01). Xingsha township appeared as the center in the Changsha county (RR = 2.90, P < 0.01) while townships as Yutangping (RR = 19.31, P < 0.01), Chengjiao (RR = 73.14, P < 0.01) and Longtian appeared as the center in the west of Ningxiang county (RR = 14.43, P < 0.01) and Wushan as the center in the Wangcheng county (RR = 13.84, P < 0.01). As time went on, the epidemic moved towards the eastern and more developed regions. Regarding factor analysis, population, the amount of students, geographic relationship and business activities etc. appeared to be the key elements influencing the transmission of influenza A (H1N1) pandemic. At the beginning of the epidemic, population density served as the main factor (r = 0.477, P < 0.05) but during the initial and fast growing stages, it was replaced by the size of students to serve as the important indicator (r = 0.831, P < 0.01; r = 0.518, P < 0.01). However, during the peak of the epidemics, the business activities played an important role (r = -0.676, P < 0.01). Groups under high risk and districts with high incidence rates were shifting, along with the temporal process of influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, suggesting that the protection measures need to be adjusted, according to the significance of influencing factors at different stages.

Temporal variation in synchrony among chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd counts from a wilderness area in central Idaho

Treesearch

D. J. Isaak; R. F. Thurow; B. E. Rieman; J. B. Dunham

2003-01-01

Metapopulation dynamics have emerged as a key consideration in conservation planning for salmonid fishes. Implicit to many models of spatially structured populations is a degree of synchrony, or correlation, among populations. We used a spatially and temporally extensive database of chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) redd counts from a wilderness area in central...

Spatial and temporal drivers of phenotypic diversity in polymorphic snakes.

PubMed

Cox, Christian L; Davis Rabosky, Alison R

2013-08-01

Color polymorphism in natural populations presents an ideal opportunity to study the evolutionary drivers of phenotypic diversity. Systems with striking spatial, temporal, and qualitative variation in color can be leveraged to study the mechanisms promoting the distribution of different types of variation in nature. We used the highly polymorphic ground snake (Sonora semiannulata), a putative coral snake mimic with both cryptic and conspicuous morphs, to compare patterns of neutral genetic variation and variation over space and time in color polymorphism to investigate the mechanistic drivers of phenotypic variation across scales. We found that strong selection promotes color polymorphism across spatial and temporal scales, with morph frequencies differing markedly between juvenile and adult age classes within a single population, oscillating over time within multiple populations, and varying drastically over the landscape despite minimal population genetic structure. However, we found no evidence that conspicuousness of morphs was related to which color pattern was favored by selection or to any geographic factors, including sympatry with coral snakes. We suggest that complex patterns of phenotypic variation in polymorphic systems may be a fundamental outcome of the conspicuousness of morphs and that explicit tests of temporal and geographic variation are critical to the interpretation of conspicuousness and mimicry.

Gridded uncertainty in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission maps, a CDIAC example

DOE PAGES

Andres, Robert J.; Boden, Thomas A.; Higdon, David M.

2016-12-05

Due to a current lack of physical measurements at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, all current global maps and distributions of fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions use one or more proxies to distribute those emissions. These proxies and distribution schemes introduce additional uncertainty into these maps. This paper examines the uncertainty associated with the magnitude of gridded FFCO2 emissions. This uncertainty is gridded at the same spatial and temporal scales as the mass magnitude maps. This gridded uncertainty includes uncertainty contributions from the spatial, temporal, proxy, and magnitude components used to create the magnitude map of FFCO2 emissions. Throughoutmore » this process, when assumptions had to be made or expert judgment employed, the general tendency in most cases was toward overestimating or increasing the magnitude of uncertainty. The results of the uncertainty analysis reveal a range of 4–190 %, with an average of 120 % (2 σ) for populated and FFCO2-emitting grid spaces over annual timescales. This paper also describes a methodological change specific to the creation of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) FFCO2 emission maps: the change from a temporally fixed population proxy to a temporally varying population proxy.« less

Gridded uncertainty in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission maps, a CDIAC example

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andres, Robert J.; Boden, Thomas A.; Higdon, David M.

Due to a current lack of physical measurements at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, all current global maps and distributions of fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions use one or more proxies to distribute those emissions. These proxies and distribution schemes introduce additional uncertainty into these maps. This paper examines the uncertainty associated with the magnitude of gridded FFCO2 emissions. This uncertainty is gridded at the same spatial and temporal scales as the mass magnitude maps. This gridded uncertainty includes uncertainty contributions from the spatial, temporal, proxy, and magnitude components used to create the magnitude map of FFCO2 emissions. Throughoutmore » this process, when assumptions had to be made or expert judgment employed, the general tendency in most cases was toward overestimating or increasing the magnitude of uncertainty. The results of the uncertainty analysis reveal a range of 4–190 %, with an average of 120 % (2 σ) for populated and FFCO2-emitting grid spaces over annual timescales. This paper also describes a methodological change specific to the creation of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) FFCO2 emission maps: the change from a temporally fixed population proxy to a temporally varying population proxy.« less

Gridded uncertainty in fossil fuel carbon dioxide emission maps, a CDIAC example

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andres, Robert J.; Boden, Thomas A.; Higdon, David M.

2016-12-01

Due to a current lack of physical measurements at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, all current global maps and distributions of fossil fuel carbon dioxide (FFCO2) emissions use one or more proxies to distribute those emissions. These proxies and distribution schemes introduce additional uncertainty into these maps. This paper examines the uncertainty associated with the magnitude of gridded FFCO2 emissions. This uncertainty is gridded at the same spatial and temporal scales as the mass magnitude maps. This gridded uncertainty includes uncertainty contributions from the spatial, temporal, proxy, and magnitude components used to create the magnitude map of FFCO2 emissions. Throughout this process, when assumptions had to be made or expert judgment employed, the general tendency in most cases was toward overestimating or increasing the magnitude of uncertainty. The results of the uncertainty analysis reveal a range of 4-190 %, with an average of 120 % (2σ) for populated and FFCO2-emitting grid spaces over annual timescales. This paper also describes a methodological change specific to the creation of the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) FFCO2 emission maps: the change from a temporally fixed population proxy to a temporally varying population proxy.

Temporal stability in the genetic structure of Sarcoptes scabiei under the host-taxon law: empirical evidences from wildlife-derived Sarcoptes mite in Asturias, Spain

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Implicitly, parasite molecular studies assume temporal genetic stability. In this study we tested, for the first time to our knowledge, the extent of changes in genetic diversity and structure of Sarcoptes mite populations from Pyrenean chamois (Rupicapra pyrenaica) in Asturias (Spain), using one multiplex of 9 microsatellite markers and Sarcoptes samples from sympatric Pyrenean chamois, red deer (Cervus elaphus), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) and red fox (Vulpes vulpes). Results The analysis of an 11-years interval period found little change in the genetic diversity (allelic diversity, and observed and expected heterozygosity). The temporal stability in the genetic diversity was confirmed by population structure analysis, which was not significantly variable over time. Population structure analysis revealed temporal stability in the genetic diversity of Sarcoptes mite under the host-taxon law (herbivore derived- and carnivore derived-Sarcoptes mite) among the sympatric wild animals from Asturias. Conclusions The confirmation of parasite temporal genetic stability is of vital interest to allow generalizations to be made, which have further implications regarding the genetic structure, epidemiology and monitoring protocols of the ubiquitous Sarcoptes mite. This could eventually be applied to other parasite species. PMID:21794141

Population genetics of Glossina palpalis palpalis from central African sleeping sickness foci.

PubMed

Melachio, Trésor Tito Tanekou T T; Simo, Gustave; Ravel, Sophie; De Meeûs, Thierry; Causse, Sandrine; Solano, Philippe; Lutumba, Pascal; Asonganyi, Tazoacha; Njiokou, Flobert

2011-07-18

Glossina palpalis palpalis (Diptera: Glossinidae) is widespread in west Africa, and is the main vector of sleeping sickness in Cameroon as well as in the Bas Congo Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo. However, little is known on the structure of its populations. We investigated G. p. palpalis population genetic structure in five sleeping sickness foci (four in Cameroon, one in Democratic Republic of Congo) using eight microsatellite DNA markers. A strong isolation by distance explains most of the population structure observed in our sampling sites of Cameroon and DRC. The populations here are composed of panmictic subpopulations occupying fairly wide zones with a very strong isolation by distance. Effective population sizes are probably between 20 and 300 individuals and if we assume densities between 120 and 2000 individuals per km2, dispersal distance between reproducing adults and their parents extends between 60 and 300 meters. This first investigation of population genetic structure of G. p. palpalis in Central Africa has evidenced random mating subpopulations over fairly large areas and is thus at variance with that found in West African populations of G. p. palpalis. This study brings new information on the isolation by distance at a macrogeographic scale which in turn brings useful information on how to organise regional tsetse control. Future investigations should be directed at temporal sampling to have more accurate measures of demographic parameters in order to help vector control decision.

Population cage experiments with a vertebrate: The temporal demography and cytonuclear genetics of hybridization on Gambusia fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Scribner, Kim T.; Avise, John C.

1994-01-01

The dynamics of mitochondrial and multilocus nuclear genotypic frequencies were monitored for 2 yr in experimental populations established with equal numbers of two poeciliid fishes (Gambusia affinis and Gambusia holbrooki) that hybridize naturally in the southeastern United States. In replicated "small-pool" populations (experiment I), 1018 sampled individuals at six time periods revealed an initial flush of hybridization, followed by a rapid decline in frequencies of G. affinis nuclear and mitochondrial alleles over 64 wk. Decay of gametic and cytonuclear disequilibria differed from expectations under random mating as well as under a model of assortative mating involving empirically estimated mating propensities. In two replicate "large-pond" populations (experiment II), 841 sampled individuals across four reproductive cohorts revealed lower initial frequencies of F1 hybrids than in experiment I, but again G. holbrooki alleles achieved high frequencies over four generations (72 wk). Thus, evolution within experimental Gambusia hybrid populations can be extremely rapid, resulting in consistent loss of G. affinis nuclear and cytoplasmic alleles. Concordance in results between experiments and across genetic markers suggests strong directional selection favoring G. holbrooki genotypes. Results are interpreted in light of previous reports of genotype-specific differences in life-history traits, reproductive ecology, patterns of recruitment, and size-specific mortality, and in the context of patterns of introgression previously studied indirectly from spatial observations on cytonuclear genotypes in natural Gambusia populations.

Life history and viability of a long-lived marine invertebrate: the octocoral Paramuricea clavata.

PubMed

Linares, Cristina; Doak, Daniel F; Coma, Rafel; Díaz, David; Zabala, Mikel

2007-04-01

The red gorgonian Paramuricea clavata is a long-lived, slow-growing sessile invertebrate of ecological and conservation importance in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea. We develop a series of size-based matrix models for two Paramuricea clavata populations. These models were used to estimate basic life history traits for this species and to evaluate the viability of the red gorgonian populations we studied. As for many other slow-growing species, sensitivity and elasticity analysis demonstrate that gorgonian population growth is far more sensitive to changes in survival rates than to growth, shrinkage, or reproductive rates. The slow growth and low mortality of red gorgonians results in low damping ratios, indicating slow convergence to stable size structures (at least 50 years). The stable distributions predicted by the model did not differ from the observed ones. However, our simulations point out the fragility of this species, showing both populations in decline and high risk of extinction over moderate time horizons. These declines appear to be related to a recent increase in anthropogenic disturbances. Relative to their life span, the values of recruitment elasticity for Paramuricea clavata are lower than those reported for other marine organisms but are similar to those reported for some long-lived plants. These values and the delayed age of sexual maturity, in combination with the longevity of the species, show a clear fecundity/mortality trade-off. Full demographic studies of sessile marine species are quite scarce but can provide insight into population dynamics and life history patterns for these difficult and under-studied species. While our work shows clear results for the red gorgonian, the variability in some of our estimates suggest that future work should include data collection over longer temporal and spatial scales to better understand the long-term effects of natural and anthropogenic disturbances on red gorgonian populations.

Using temporal sampling to improve attribution of source populations for invasive species.

PubMed

Goldstien, Sharyn J; Inglis, Graeme J; Schiel, David R; Gemmell, Neil J

2013-01-01

Numerous studies have applied genetic tools to the identification of source populations and transport pathways for invasive species. However, there are many gaps in the knowledge obtained from such studies because comprehensive and meaningful spatial sampling to meet these goals is difficult to achieve. Sampling populations as they arrive at the border should fill the gaps in source population identification, but such an advance has not yet been achieved with genetic data. Here we use previously acquired genetic data to assign new incursions as they invade populations within New Zealand ports and marinas. We also investigated allelelic frequency change in these recently established populations over a two-year period, and assessed the effect of temporal genetic sampling on our ability to assign new incursions to their population of source. We observed shifts in the allele frequencies among populations, as well as the complete loss of some alleles and the addition of alleles novel to New Zealand, within these recently established populations. There was no significant level of genetic differentiation observed in our samples between years, and the use of these temporal data did alter the assignment probability of new incursions. Our study further suggests that new incursions can add genetic variation to the population in a single introduction event as the founders themselves are often more genetically diverse than theory initially predicted.

Temporal patterns in Homalodisca spp. (Hemiptera: Cicadellidae) oviposition on southern California citrus and jojoba.

PubMed

Al-Wahaibi, Ali K; Morse, Joseph G

2010-02-01

A detailed study of the distribution of egg masses of Homalodisca vitripennis (Germar) and H. liturata Ball was done across a 2-yr period (2001-2003) on six host plants in southern California (Marsh grapefruit, Lisbon lemon, Washington navel, Dancy tangerine, rough lemon, and jojoba in Riverside; jojoba in Desert Center). The majority of egg masses in Riverside belonged to H. vitripennis (84-100%), whereas in Desert Center, all Homalodisca egg masses were H. liturata. Oviposition in Riverside occurred in two discrete periods, a late winter and spring period (mid-February to late May), followed by a short interval of very low oviposition during most of June, and then a summer period (late June to late September) followed by a relatively long period of very low oviposition in fall and early winter (October to mid-February). Levels of oviposition during the late winter-spring period were similar to those during the summer despite an observed larger population of adults during the latter period. Moreover, egg clutch size for H. vitripennis was generally greater in spring than during summer and was generally higher than that for H. liturata, especially on Riverside jojoba. Larger egg clutch size was seen on grapefruit than on lemon, navel, and tangerine during summer. There appeared to be temporal host shifts in oviposition; most evident was the shift from relatively high rates of oviposition on lemon and tangerine in late winter-early spring to relatively higher rates of oviposition on grapefruit and navel during summer.

Bottlenecks drive temporal and spatial genetic changes in alpine caddisfly metapopulations.

PubMed

Shama, Lisa N S; Kubow, Karen B; Jokela, Jukka; Robinson, Christopher T

2011-09-27

Extinction and re-colonisation of local populations is common in ephemeral habitats such as temporary streams. In most cases, such population turnover leads to reduced genetic diversity within populations and increased genetic differentiation among populations due to stochastic founder events, genetic drift, and bottlenecks associated with re-colonisation. Here, we examined the spatio-temporal genetic structure of 8 alpine caddisfly populations inhabiting permanent and temporary streams from four valleys in two regions of the Swiss Alps in years before and after a major stream drying event, the European heat wave in summer 2003. We found that population turnover after 2003 led to a loss of allelic richness and gene diversity but not to significant changes in observed heterozygosity. Within all valleys, permanent and temporary streams in any given year were not differentiated, suggesting considerable gene flow and admixture between streams with differing hydroperiods. Large changes in allele frequencies after 2003 resulted in a substantial increase in genetic differentiation among valleys within one to two years (1-2 generations) driven primarily by drift and immigration. Signatures of genetic bottlenecks were detected in all 8 populations after 2003 using the M-ratio method, but in no populations when using a heterozygosity excess method, indicating differential sensitivity of bottleneck detection methods. We conclude that genetic differentiation among A. uncatus populations changed markedly both temporally and spatially in response to the extreme climate event in 2003. Our results highlight the magnitude of temporal population genetic changes in response to extreme events. More specifically, our results show that extreme events can cause rapid genetic divergence in metapopulations. Further studies are needed to determine if recovery from this perturbation through gradual mixing of diverged populations by migration and gene flow leads to the pre-climate event state, or whether the observed changes represent a new genetic equilibrium.

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process

PubMed Central

Haines, Aaron M.; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J. Michael; Goble, Dale D.; Rachlow, Janet L.

2013-01-01

Simple Summary The objective of our study was to evaluate the mention of uncertainty (i.e., variance) associated with population size estimates within U.S. recovery plans for endangered animals. To do this we reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species. We found that more recent recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty. We recommend that updated recovery plans combine uncertainty of population size estimates with a minimum detectable difference to aid in successful recovery. Abstract United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data. PMID:26479531

The importance of temperature fluctuations in understanding mosquito population dynamics and malaria risk.

PubMed

Beck-Johnson, Lindsay M; Nelson, William A; Paaijmans, Krijn P; Read, Andrew F; Thomas, Matthew B; Bjørnstad, Ottar N

2017-03-01

Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population's capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk.

Size-dependent selective mechanisms on males and females and the evolution of sexual size dimorphism in frogs.

PubMed

Nali, Renato C; Zamudio, Kelly R; Haddad, Célio F B; Prado, Cynthia P A

2014-12-01

Sexual size dimorphism (SSD) varies in animals from male biased to female biased. The evolution of SSD is potentially influenced by a number of factors, such as territoriality, fecundity, and temporal breeding patterns (explosive vs. prolonged). In general, frogs show female-biased SSD with broad variance among species. Using comparative methods, we examine how different selective forces affect male and female sizes, and we test hypotheses about size-dependent mechanisms shaping SSD in frogs. Male size was weakly associated with SSD in all size classes, and we found no significant association among SSD, male size, temporal breeding pattern, and male territoriality. In contrast, female size best explained SSD variation across all size classes but especially for small-bodied species. We found a stronger evolutionary association between female body size and fecundity, and this fecundity advantage was highest in explosively breeding species. Our data indicate that the fecundity advantage associated with female body size may not be linear, such that intermediate and large females benefit less with body size increases. Therefore, size-dependent selection in females associated with fecundity and breeding patterns is an important mechanism driving SSD evolution in frogs. Our study underscores the fact that lineage-specific ecology and behavior should be incorporated in comparative analyses of animal SSD.

Temporal Planning for Compilation of Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm Circuits

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Venturelli, Davide; Do, Minh Binh; Rieffel, Eleanor Gilbert; Frank, Jeremy David

2017-01-01

We investigate the application of temporal planners to the problem of compiling quantum circuits to newly emerging quantum hardware. While our approach is general, we focus our initial experiments on Quantum Approximate Optimization Algorithm (QAOA) circuits that have few ordering constraints and allow highly parallel plans. We report on experiments using several temporal planners to compile circuits of various sizes to a realistic hardware. This early empirical evaluation suggests that temporal planning is a viable approach to quantum circuit compilation.

Comparison of the Spectral-Temporally Modulated Ripple Test With the Arizona Biomedical Institute Sentence Test in Cochlear Implant Users.

PubMed

Lawler, Marshall; Yu, Jeffrey; Aronoff, Justin M

Although speech perception is the gold standard for measuring cochlear implant (CI) users' performance, speech perception tests often require extensive adaptation to obtain accurate results, particularly after large changes in maps. Spectral ripple tests, which measure spectral resolution, are an alternate measure that has been shown to correlate with speech perception. A modified spectral ripple test, the spectral-temporally modulated ripple test (SMRT) has recently been developed, and the objective of this study was to compare speech perception and performance on the SMRT for a heterogeneous population of unilateral CI users, bilateral CI users, and bimodal users. Twenty-five CI users (eight using unilateral CIs, nine using bilateral CIs, and eight using a CI and a hearing aid) were tested on the Arizona Biomedical Institute Sentence Test (AzBio) with a +8 dB signal to noise ratio, and on the SMRT. All participants were tested with their clinical programs. There was a significant correlation between SMRT and AzBio performance. After a practice block, an improvement of one ripple per octave for SMRT corresponded to an improvement of 12.1% for AzBio. Additionally, there was no significant difference in slope or intercept between any of the CI populations. The results indicate that performance on the SMRT correlates with speech recognition in noise when measured across unilateral, bilateral, and bimodal CI populations. These results suggest that SMRT scores are strongly associated with speech recognition in noise ability in experienced CI users. Further studies should focus on increasing both the size and diversity of the tested participants, and on determining whether the SMRT technique can be used for early predictions of long-term speech scores, or for evaluating differences among different stimulation strategies or parameter settings.

Fast depth decision for HEVC inter prediction based on spatial and temporal correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Gaoxing; Liu, Zhenyu; Ikenaga, Takeshi

2016-07-01

High efficiency video coding (HEVC) is a video compression standard that outperforms the predecessor H.264/AVC by doubling the compression efficiency. To enhance the compression accuracy, the partition sizes ranging is from 4x4 to 64x64 in HEVC. However, the manifold partition sizes dramatically increase the encoding complexity. This paper proposes a fast depth decision based on spatial and temporal correlation. Spatial correlation utilize the code tree unit (CTU) Splitting information and temporal correlation utilize the motion vector predictor represented CTU in inter prediction to determine the maximum depth in each CTU. Experimental results show that the proposed method saves about 29.1% of the original processing time with 0.9% of BD-bitrate increase on average.

Comparative biology and population mixing among local, coastal and offshore Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) in the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and western Baltic

PubMed Central

Slotte, Aril; Johannessen, Arne; Kvamme, Cecilie; Clausen, Lotte Worsøe; Nash, Richard D. M.

2017-01-01

The population structure of Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) from 13 local, coastal and offshore areas of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and western Baltic (northeast Atlantic) was studied using biological and environmental data from 1970–2015. The objective was to identify distinct populations by comparing variability in the temporal and spatial phenotypic characteristics and evaluate the potential for mixing of populations in time and space. The populations varied in biological characteristics such as mean vertebral counts (VS), growth and maturity ogives. Generalized additive models indicated temporally stable VS in the North Sea and western Baltic, whereas intra-annual temporal variation of VS occurred in other areas. High variability of VS within a population was not affected by environmental factors such as temperature and salinity. Consequently, seasonal VS variability can be explained by the presence or absence of herring populations as they migrate between areas. The three main populations identified in this paper correspond to the three managed stocks in this area: Norwegian spring spawners (NSS), western Baltic spring spawners (WBSS) and North Sea autumn spawners (NSAS). In addition, several local populations were identified in fjords or lakes along the coast, but our analyses could not detect direct mixing of local populations with the three main populations. Our results highlight the importance of recognizing herring dynamics and understanding the mixing of populations as a challenge for management of herring. PMID:29084258

Long-term dynamics of winter and summer annual communities in the Chihuahuan Desert

USGS Publications Warehouse

Guo, Q.; Brown, J.H.; Valone, T.J.

2002-01-01

Winter and summer annuals in the Chihuahuan Desert have been intensively studied in recent years but little is known about the similarities and differences in the dynamics between these two communities. Using 15 yr of census data from permanent quadrats, this paper compared the characteristics and temporal dynamics of these two distinct, spatially co-existent but temporally segregated communities. Although the total number of summer annual species recorded during our 15 yr of observation was higher than winter annuals, the mean number of species observed each year was higher in the winter community. The winter community exhibited lower temporal variation in total plant abundance and populations of individual species, lower species turnover rate and higher evenness than the summer community. The rank abundances of species in winter were significantly positively correlated for a period of up to 7 yr while in summer significant positive correlations in rank abundance disappeared after 2 to 3 yr. The higher seasonal species diversity (i.e. number of species observed in each season) in winter rather than the overall special pool (over 15 yr) may be responsible for the greater community stability of winter annuals. The difference in long-term community dynamics between the two communities of annual plants are likely due to the differences in total species pool, life history traits (e.g. seed size), and seasonal climatic regimes.

Cross-sectional, Observational Study of Anterior Segment Parameters Using Anterior Segment Optical Coherence Tomography in North Indian Population

PubMed Central

Dalal, Latika Khatri; Dhasmana, Renu; Maitreya, Amit

2017-01-01

Purpose: To study the anterior segment (AS) parameters using AS optical coherence tomography (AS-OCT) in the North Indian population. Methods: A hospital-based, observational, cross-sectional study was conducted over a period of 1 year. It included 251 normal individuals aged 20–70 years. Participants underwent imaging with AS-OCT. Ocular parameters included anterior chamber angle (ACA), iris cross-sectional area (ICSA), iris thickness (IT), and iris curvature (IC). The parameters were measured nasally and temporally for both sexes and different age groups. Results: The mean age of participants was 48.3 ± 13.9 years and 50.6% were men. The ACA decreased with age whereas ICSA, IT, and IC increased with age. The ACA (P = 0.0001nasally and temporally), ICSA (P = 0.011 nasally, P = 0.027 temporally), IT750 (P = 0.001 nasally, P = 0.011 temporally), IT1500 (P = 0.002 nasally, P = 0.002 temporally), and IC (P = 0.059 nasally, P = 0.128 temporally) underwent statistically significant changes with increasing age. No significant difference was seen in parameters of different sex. Conclusion: In this subset of the Indian population, the change in the AC parameters with age influences the AC dimensions predisposing the eye to glaucomatous conditions. These data are applicable clinically for the assessment and surgical management of patients requiring AS surgery. PMID:28671154

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors.

PubMed

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

2013-09-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis , the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001-2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057-2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses-including altered phenology-of disease vectors to altered climate.

Spatially-Explicit Simulation Modeling of Ecological Response to Climate Change: Methodological Considerations in Predicting Shifting Population Dynamics of Infectious Disease Vectors

PubMed Central

Dhingra, Radhika; Jimenez, Violeta; Chang, Howard H.; Gambhir, Manoj; Fu, Joshua S.; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V.

2014-01-01

Poikilothermic disease vectors can respond to altered climates through spatial changes in both population size and phenology. Quantitative descriptors to characterize, analyze and visualize these dynamic responses are lacking, particularly across large spatial domains. In order to demonstrate the value of a spatially explicit, dynamic modeling approach, we assessed spatial changes in the population dynamics of Ixodes scapularis, the Lyme disease vector, using a temperature-forced population model simulated across a grid of 4 × 4 km cells covering the eastern United States, using both modeled (Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 3.2.1) baseline/current (2001–2004) and projected (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; 2057–2059) climate data. Ten dynamic population features (DPFs) were derived from simulated populations and analyzed spatially to characterize the regional population response to current and future climate across the domain. Each DPF under the current climate was assessed for its ability to discriminate observed Lyme disease risk and known vector presence/absence, using data from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Peak vector population and month of peak vector population were the DPFs that performed best as predictors of current Lyme disease risk. When examined under baseline and projected climate scenarios, the spatial and temporal distributions of DPFs shift and the seasonal cycle of key questing life stages is compressed under some scenarios. Our results demonstrate the utility of spatial characterization, analysis and visualization of dynamic population responses—including altered phenology—of disease vectors to altered climate. PMID:24772388

Role of patch size, disease, and movement in rapid extinction of bighorn sheep

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, F.J.; Zeigenfuss, L.C.; Spicer, L.

2001-01-01

The controversy (Berger 1990, 1999; Wehausen 1999) over rapid extinction in bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis) has focused on population size alone as a correlate to persistence time. We report on the persistence and population performance of 24 translocated populations of bighorn sheep. Persistence in these sheep was strongly correlated with larger patch sizes, greater distance to domestic sheep, higher population growth rates, and migratory movements, as well as to larger population sizes. Persistence was also positively correlated with larger average home-range size (p = 0.058, n = 10 translocated populations) and home-range size of rams (p = 0.087, n = 8 translocated populations). Greater home-range size and dispersal rates of bighorn sheep were positively correlated to larger patches. We conclude that patch size and thus habitat carrying capacity, not population size per se, is the primary correlate to both population performance and persistence. Because habitat carrying capacity defines the upper limit to population size, clearly the amount of suitable habitat in a patch is ultimately linked to population size. Larger populations (250+ animals) were more likely to recover rapidly to their pre-epizootic survey number following an epizootic (p = 0.019), although the proportion of the population dying in the epizootic also influenced the probability of recovery (p = 0.001). Expensive management efforts to restore or increase bighorn sheep populations should focus on large habitat patches located ≥23 km from domestic sheep, and less effort should be expended on populations in isolated, small patches of habitat.

Asymmetric patch size distribution leads to disruptive selection on dispersal.

PubMed

Massol, François; Duputié, Anne; David, Patrice; Jarne, Philippe

2011-02-01

Numerous models have been designed to understand how dispersal ability evolves when organisms live in a fragmented landscape. Most of them predict a single dispersal rate at evolutionary equilibrium, and when diversification of dispersal rates has been predicted, it occurs as a response to perturbation or environmental fluctuation regimes. Yet abundant variation in dispersal ability is observed in natural populations and communities, even in relatively stable environments. We show that this diversification can operate in a simple island model without temporal variability: disruptive selection on dispersal occurs when the environment consists of many small and few large patches, a common feature in natural spatial systems. This heterogeneity in patch size results in a high variability in the number of related patch mates by individual, which, in turn, triggers disruptive selection through a high per capita variance of inclusive fitness. Our study provides a likely, parsimonious and testable explanation for the diversity of dispersal rates encountered in nature. It also suggests that biological conservation policies aiming at preserving ecological communities should strive to keep the distribution of patch size sufficiently asymmetric and variable. © 2010 The Author(s). Evolution© 2010 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Salp distribution and size composition in the Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawaguchi, S.; Siegel, V.; Litvinov, F.; Loeb, V.; Watkins, J.

2004-06-01

Salp abundance and length frequency were measured during the large-scale CCAMLR 2000 Survey conducted in the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean in the 1999/2000 season. Results from regional surveys around Elephant Island in 1994/95 and 1996/97 seasons also were examined. During the CCAMLR 2000 Survey, salp abundance was higher in the Antarctic Peninsula and South Sandwich Island areas than in the central Scotia Sea. The probable reason for this pattern is a negative relationship with phytoplankton abundance; the central Scotia Sea having greater phytoplankton concentrations than required for optimal salp filter-feeding performance. Cluster analysis of salp size composition resulted in three cluster groups for each of the three surveys. Clusters comprising large salps occurred in warmer waters in all three surveys. The size composition of the salp populations suggests that the timing of intense asexual reproductive budding was earlier in warmer waters. As surface water temperatures generally decrease from north to south, and increase from spring to summer, the general spatio-temporal pattern of asexual reproduction by budding is likely to proceed from north to south as the summer season progresses.

Body size distributions signal a regime shift in a lake ecosystem

EPA Science Inventory

Communities of organisms, from mammals to microorganisms, have discontinuous distributions of body size. This pattern of size structuring is a conservative trait of community organization and is a product of processes that occur at multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this st...

Gene length as a biological timer to establish temporal transcriptional regulation

PubMed Central

Kirkconnell, Killeen S.; Magnuson, Brian; Paulsen, Michelle T.; Lu, Brian; Bedi, Karan; Ljungman, Mats

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Transcriptional timing is inherently influenced by gene length, thus providing a mechanism for temporal regulation of gene expression. While gene size has been shown to be important for the expression timing of specific genes during early development, whether it plays a role in the timing of other global gene expression programs has not been extensively explored. Here, we investigate the role of gene length during the early transcriptional response of human fibroblasts to serum stimulation. Using the nascent sequencing techniques Bru-seq and BruUV-seq, we identified immediate genome-wide transcriptional changes following serum stimulation that were linked to rapid activation of enhancer elements. We identified 873 significantly induced and 209 significantly repressed genes. Variations in gene size allowed for a large group of genes to be simultaneously activated but produce full-length RNAs at different times. The median length of the group of serum-induced genes was significantly larger than the median length of all expressed genes, housekeeping genes, and serum-repressed genes. These gene length relationships were also observed in corresponding mouse orthologs, suggesting that relative gene size is evolutionarily conserved. The sizes of transcription factor and microRNA genes immediately induced after serum stimulation varied dramatically, setting up a cascade mechanism for temporal expression arising from a single activation event. The retention and expansion of large intronic sequences during evolution have likely played important roles in fine-tuning the temporal expression of target genes in various cellular response programs. PMID:28055303

Temporal Trends in the Utilization of Noninvasive Diagnostic Tests for Coronary Artery Disease in Ontario Between 2008 and 2014: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Roifman, Idan; Wijeysundera, Harindra C; Austin, Peter C; Maclagan, Laura C; Rezai, Mohammad R; Wright, Graham A; Tu, Jack V

2017-02-01

The proliferation of cardiac diagnostic tests over the past few decades has received substantial attention from policymakers. However, contemporary population-based temporal trends of the utilization of noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests for coronary artery disease are not known. Our objective was to examine the temporal trends in the utilization of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI), exercise stress testing (GXT), and stress echocardiography between 2008 and 2014. We performed a population-based repeated cross-sectional study of the adult population of Ontario between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2014. Annual utilization rates of noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests were computed. For each cardiac testing modality, a negative binomial regression model was used to assess temporal changes in test utilization. GXT and MPI collectively accounted for 88% of all cardiac noninvasive diagnostic tests throughout our study period. Age- and sex-standardized rates of GXT declined from 26.7/1000 adult population to 21.6/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 3.4%; P < 0.001). MPI rates declined from 21.1/1000 adult population to 19.5/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 1.3%; P < 0.001). Although utilization rates for both CCTA and stress echocardiography increased over time, the combined rate of all available tests decreased from 50.8/1000 adult population to 49.1/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 1.1%; P < 0.001). In conclusion, utilization rates for the most prevalent noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests-GXT and MPI-declined over our study period. Furthermore, the overall test utilization rate also declined over time. We believe our findings are encouraging from a health policy perspective. Nonetheless, rising utilization rates for CCTA and stress echocardiography will need to be monitored in the future. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty in Population Estimates for Endangered Animals and Improving the Recovery Process.

PubMed

Haines, Aaron M; Zak, Matthew; Hammond, Katie; Scott, J Michael; Goble, Dale D; Rachlow, Janet L

2013-08-13

United States recovery plans contain biological information for a species listed under the Endangered Species Act and specify recovery criteria to provide basis for species recovery. The objective of our study was to evaluate whether recovery plans provide uncertainty (e.g., variance) with estimates of population size. We reviewed all finalized recovery plans for listed terrestrial vertebrate species to record the following data: (1) if a current population size was given, (2) if a measure of uncertainty or variance was associated with current estimates of population size and (3) if population size was stipulated for recovery. We found that 59% of completed recovery plans specified a current population size, 14.5% specified a variance for the current population size estimate and 43% specified population size as a recovery criterion. More recent recovery plans reported more estimates of current population size, uncertainty and population size as a recovery criterion. Also, bird and mammal recovery plans reported more estimates of population size and uncertainty compared to reptiles and amphibians. We suggest the use of calculating minimum detectable differences to improve confidence when delisting endangered animals and we identified incentives for individuals to get involved in recovery planning to improve access to quantitative data.

The demographic consequences of growing older and bigger in oyster populations.

PubMed

Moore, Jacob L; Lipcius, Romuald N; Puckett, Brandon; Schreiber, Sebastian J

2016-10-01

Structured population models, particularly size- or age-structured, have a long history of informing conservation and natural resource management. While size is often easier to measure than age and is the focus of many management strategies, age-structure can have important effects on population dynamics that are not captured in size-only models. However, relatively few studies have included the simultaneous effects of both age- and size-structure. To better understand how population structure, particularly that of age and size, impacts restoration and management decisions, we developed and compared a size-structured integral projection model (IPM) and an age- and size-structured IPM, using a population of Crassostrea gigas oysters in the northeastern Pacific Ocean. We analyzed sensitivity of model results across values of local retention that give populations decreasing in size to populations increasing in size. We found that age- and size-structured models yielded the best fit to the demographic data and provided more reliable results about long-term demography. Elasticity analysis showed that population growth rate was most sensitive to changes in the survival of both large (>175 mm shell length) and small (<75 mm shell length) oysters, indicating that a maximum size limit, in addition to a minimum size limit, could be an effective strategy for maintaining a sustainable population. In contrast, the purely size-structured model did not detect the importance of large individuals. Finally, patterns in stable age and stable size distributions differed between populations decreasing in size due to limited local retention and populations increasing in size due to high local retention. These patterns can be used to determine population status and restoration success. The methodology described here provides general insight into the necessity of including both age- and size-structure into modeling frameworks when using population models to inform restoration and management decisions. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

The Role of Game (Wild Boar and Roe Deer) in the Spread of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in the Czech Republic

PubMed Central

Daniel, Milan; Benes, Cestmir; Maly, Marek

2014-01-01

Abstract In the Czech Republic, the incidence of human tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) has been increasing over the last two decades. At the same time, populations of game have also shown an upward trend. In this country, the ungulate game is the main host group of hosts for Ixodes ricinus female ticks. This study examined the potential contribution of two most widespread game species (roe deer [Capreolus capreolus] and wild boar [Sus scrofa]) to the high incidence of TBE in the Czech Republic, using the annual numbers of culls as a proxy for the game population. This was an ecological study, with annual figures for geographical areas—municipalities with extended competence (MEC)—used as units of analysis. Between 2003 and 2011, a total of 6213 TBE cases were reported, and 1062,308 roe deer and 989,222 wild boars were culled; the culls of roe deer did not demonstrate a clear temporal trend, but wild boar culls almost doubled (from 77,269 to 143,378 per year). Statistical analyses revealed a positive association between TBE incidence rate and the relative number of culled wild boars. In multivariate analyses, a change in the numbers of culled wild boars between the 25th and 75th percentile was associated with TBE incidence rate ratio of 1.23 (95% confidence interval 1.07–1.41, p=0.003). By contrast, the association of TBE with culled roe deer was not statistically significant (p=0.481). The results suggest that the size of the wild boar population may have contributed to the current high levels and the rising trend in incidence of TBE, whereas the regulated population of roe deer does not seem to be implicated in recent geographical or temporal variations in TBE in the Czech Republic. PMID:25409271

Early-phase dynamics in coral recovery following cyclone disturbance on the inshore Great Barrier Reef, Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sato, Yui; Bell, Sara C.; Nichols, Cassandra; Fry, Kent; Menéndez, Patricia; Bourne, David G.

2018-06-01

Coral recovery (the restoration of abundance and composition of coral communities) after disturbance is a key process that determines the resilience of reef ecosystems. To understand the mechanisms underlying the recovery process of coral communities, colony abundance and size distribution were followed on reefs around Pelorus Island, located in the inshore central region of the Great Barrier Reef, following a severe tropical cyclone in 2011 that caused dramatic loss of coral communities. Permanent quadrats (600 m2) were monitored biannually between 2012 and 2016, and individual coral colonies were counted, sized and categorized into morphological types. The abundance of coral recruits and coral cover were also examined using permanent quadrats and random line intercept transects, respectively. The number of colonies in the smallest size class (4-10 cm) increased substantially during the study period, driving the recovery of coral populations. The total number of coral colonies 5 yr post-cyclone reached between 73 and 122% of pre-cyclone levels though coral cover remained between 16 and 31% of pre-cyclone levels, due to the dominance of small coral colonies in the recovering communities. Temporal transitions of coral demography (i.e., colony-size distributions) illustrated that the number of recently established coral populations overtook communities of surviving colonies. Coral recruits (< 4 cm in size) also showed increasing patterns in abundance over the study period, underscoring the importance of larval supply in coral recovery. A shift in morphological composition of coral communities was also observed, with the relative abundance of encrusting corals reduced post-cyclone in contrast to their dominance prior to the disturbance. This study identifies the fine-scale processes involved in the initial recovery of coral reefs, providing insights into the dynamics of coral demography that are essential for determining coral reef resilience following major disturbance.

Modeling of Particle Agglomeration in Nanofluids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kanagala, Hari Krishna

Nanofluids are colloidal dispersions of nano sized particles (<100nm in diameter) in dispersion mediums. They are of great interest in industrial applications as heat transfer fluids owing to their enhanced thermal conductivities. Stability of nanofluids is a major problem hindering their industrial application. Agglomeration and then sedimentation are some reasons, which drastically decrease the shelf life of these nanofluids. Current research addresses the agglomeration effect and how it can affect the shelf life of a nanofluid. The reasons for agglomeration in nanofluids are attributable to the interparticle interactions which are quantified by the various theories. By altering the governing properties like volume fraction, pH and electrolyte concentration different nanofluids with instant agglomeration, slow agglomeration and no agglomeration can be produced. A numerical model is created based on the discretized population balance equations which analyses the particle size distribution at different times. Agglomeration effects have been analyzed for alumina nanoparticles with average particle size of 150nm dispersed in de-ionized water. As the pH was moved towards the isoelectric point of alumina nanofluids, the particle size distribution became broader and moved to bigger sizes rapidly with time. Particle size distributions became broader and moved to bigger sizes more quickly with time with increase in the electrolyte concentration. The two effects together can be used to create different temporal trends in the particle size distributions. Faster agglomeration is attributed to the decrease in the electrostatic double layer repulsion forces which is due to decrease in the induced charge and the double layer thickness around the particle. Bigger particle clusters show lesser agglomeration due to reaching the equilibrium size. The procedures and processes described in this work can be used to generate more stable nanofluids.

A positive relationship between spring temperature and productivity in 20 songbird species in the boreal zone.

PubMed

Meller, Kalle; Piha, Markus; Vähätalo, Anssi V; Lehikoinen, Aleksi

2018-03-01

Anthropogenic climate warming has already affected the population dynamics of numerous species and is predicted to do so also in the future. To predict the effects of climate change, it is important to know whether productivity is linked to temperature, and whether species' traits affect responses to climate change. To address these objectives, we analysed monitoring data from the Finnish constant effort site ringing scheme collected in 1987-2013 for 20 common songbird species together with climatic data. Warm spring temperature had a positive linear relationship with productivity across the community of 20 species independent of species' traits (realized thermal niche or migration behaviour), suggesting that even the warmest spring temperatures remained below the thermal optimum for reproduction, possibly due to our boreal study area being closer to the cold edge of all study species' distributions. The result also suggests a lack of mismatch between the timing of breeding and peak availability of invertebrate food of the study species. Productivity was positively related to annual growth rates in long-distance migrants, but not in short-distance migrants. Across the 27-year study period, temporal trends in productivity were mostly absent. The population sizes of species with colder thermal niches had decreasing trends, which were not related to temperature responses or temporal trends in productivity. The positive connection between spring temperature and productivity suggests that climate warming has potential to increase the productivity in bird species in the boreal zone, at least in the short term.

Grain-size analysis and sediment dynamics of hurricane-induced event beds in a coastal New England pond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castagno, K. A.; Ruehr, S. A.; Donnelly, J. P.; Woodruff, J. D.

2017-12-01

Coastal populations have grown increasingly susceptible to the impacts of tropical cyclone events as they grow in size, wealth, and infrastructure. Changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity, augmented by a changing climate, pose an increasing threat of property damage and loss of life. Reconstructions of intense-hurricane landfalls from a series of southeastern New England sediment cores identify a series of events spanning the past 2,000 years. Though the frequency of these landfalls is well constrained, the intensity of these storms, particularly those for which no historical record exists, is not. This study analyzes the grain-size distribution of major storm event beds along a transect of sediment cores from a kettle pond in Falmouth, MA. The grain-size distribution of each event is determined using an image processing, size, and shape analyzer. The depositional patterns and changes in grain-size distribution in these fine-grained systems may both spatially and temporally reveal characteristics of both storm intensity and the nature of sediment deposition. An inverse-modeling technique using this kind of grain-size analysis to determine past storm intensity has been explored in back-barrier lagoon systems in the Caribbean, but limited research has assessed its utility to assess deposits from back-barrier ponds in the northeastern United States. Increases in hurricane intensity may be closely tied to increases in sea surface temperature. As such, research into these prehistoric intervals of increased frequency and/or intensity provides important insight into the current and future hurricane risks facing coastal communities in New England.

Introgression Makes Waves in Inferred Histories of Effective Population Size.

PubMed

Hawks, John

2017-01-01

Human populations have a complex history of introgression and of changing population size. Human genetic variation has been affected by both these processes, so inference of past population size depends upon the pattern of gene flow and introgression among past populations. One remarkable aspect of human population history as inferred from genetics is a consistent "wave" of larger effective population sizes, found in both African and non-African populations, that appears to reflect events prior to the last 100,000 years. I carried out a series of simulations to investigate how introgression and gene flow from genetically divergent ancestral populations affect the inference of ancestral effective population size. Both introgression and gene flow from an extinct, genetically divergent population consistently produce a wave in the history of inferred effective population size. The time and amplitude of the wave reflect the time of origin of the genetically divergent ancestral populations and the strength of introgression or gene flow. These results demonstrate that even small fractions of introgression or gene flow from ancient populations may have visible effects on the inference of effective population size.

Local extinction and recolonization, species effective population size, and modern human origins.

PubMed

Eller, Elise; Hawks, John; Relethford, John H

2004-10-01

A primary objection from a population genetics perspective to a multiregional model of modern human origins is that the model posits a large census size, whereas genetic data suggest a small effective population size. The relationship between census size and effective size is complex, but arguments based on an island model of migration show that if the effective population size reflects the number of breeding individuals and the effects of population subdivision, then an effective population size of 10,000 is inconsistent with the census size of 500,000 to 1,000,000 that has been suggested by archeological evidence. However, these models have ignored the effects of population extinction and recolonization, which increase the expected variance among demes and reduce the inbreeding effective population size. Using models developed for population extinction and recolonization, we show that a large census size consistent with the multiregional model can be reconciled with an effective population size of 10,000, but genetic variation among demes must be high, reflecting low interdeme migration rates and a colonization process that involves a small number of colonists or kin-structured colonization. Ethnographic and archeological evidence is insufficient to determine whether such demographic conditions existed among Pleistocene human populations, and further work needs to be done. More realistic models that incorporate isolation by distance and heterogeneity in extinction rates and effective deme sizes also need to be developed. However, if true, a process of population extinction and recolonization has interesting implications for human demographic history.

The Variation of Planetary Surfaces' Structure and Size Distribution with Depth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charalambous, C. A.; Pike, W. T.

2014-12-01

The particle, rock and boulder size distribution of a planetary surface bring important implications not only to crucial aspects of future missions but also to the better understanding of planetary and earth sciences. By exploiting a novel statistical model, the evolution of particle fragmentation phenomena can be understood in terms of a descriptive maturity index, a measure of the number of fragmentation events that have produced the soil. This statistical model, which is mathematically constructed via fundamental physical principles, has been validated by terrestrial mineral grinding data and impact experiments. Applying the model to planetary surfaces, the number of fragmentation events is determined by production function curves that quantify the degree of impact cratering. The model quantifies the variation of the maturity index of the regolith with depth, with a high maturity index at the surface decreasing to a low index corresponding to the megaregolith of a blocky population and fractured bedrock. The measured lunar and martian particle size distributions at the surface is well matched by the model over several orders of magnitude. The continuous transition invoked by the model can be furthermore synthesised to provide temporal and spatial visualisations of the internal architecture of the Martian and Lunar regolith. Finally, the model is applied to the risk assessment and success criteria of future mission landings as well as drilling on planetary surfaces. The solutions to a variety of planetary fragmentation related problems can be found via exact mathematical foundations or through simulations using the particle population provided by the model's maturation.

Genetic Diversity in Introduced Populations with an Allee Effect

PubMed Central

Wittmann, Meike J.; Gabriel, Wilfried; Metzler, Dirk

2014-01-01

A phenomenon that strongly influences the demography of small introduced populations and thereby potentially their genetic diversity is the demographic Allee effect, a reduction in population growth rates at small population sizes. We take a stochastic modeling approach to investigate levels of genetic diversity in populations that successfully overcame either a strong Allee effect, in which populations smaller than a certain critical size are expected to decline, or a weak Allee effect, in which the population growth rate is reduced at small sizes but not negative. Our results indicate that compared to successful populations without an Allee effect, successful populations with a strong Allee effect tend to (1) derive from larger founder population sizes and thus have a higher initial amount of genetic variation, (2) spend fewer generations at small population sizes where genetic drift is particularly strong, and (3) spend more time around the critical population size and thus experience more genetic drift there. In the case of multiple introduction events, there is an additional increase in diversity because Allee-effect populations tend to derive from a larger number of introduction events than other populations. Altogether, a strong Allee effect can either increase or decrease genetic diversity, depending on the average founder population size. By contrast, a weak Allee effect tends to decrease genetic diversity across the entire range of founder population sizes. Finally, we show that it is possible in principle to infer critical population sizes from genetic data, although this would require information from many independently introduced populations. PMID:25009147

The role of insect dispersal and migration in population processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rabb, R. L.; Stinner, R. E.

1979-01-01

Movement functions in the population dynamics of insects are discussed. Modes of movement, movement from a population view, and population patterns are described and predicted. A wide-area of spatial and temporal patterns are presented.

Distance Learning for Special Populations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bates, Rodger A.

2012-01-01

Distance education strategies for remotely deployed, highly mobile, or institutionalized populations are reviewed and critiqued. Specifically, asynchronous, offline responses for special military units, Native Americans on remote reservations, prison populations and other geographically, temporally or technologically isolated niche populations are…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Glaser, D.; Connolly, J.; Berghoffen, A.

The resident bald eagles of the lower Columbia River have lower productivity and higher contaminant levels than other bald eagles of the Pacific Northwest. The primary population stressors are believed to be habitat loss, human disturbance, p,p{prime}DDE, PCBs, dioxins and furans. The primary effect of habitat loss is to reduce the carrying capacity of the region for nesting sites, and the primary effects of human disturbance and contamination by organic compounds are to reduce productivity. The purpose of this study was to quantitatively evaluate the effects of all of, these potential stressors on the bald eagle population dynamics. A modelmore » of the population dynamics was developed. The model structure includes a physiologically-based toxicokinetic (PBTK) submodel to estimate the degree of contamination, which is linked via a toxicology submodel to a population dynamics submodel. The PBTK submodel is time-variable, incorporating species-specific bioenergetics, as well as contaminant assimilation and excretion rates for each compound of interest. Calculated body burdens and egg concentrations for each compound account for spatial and temporal variations in feeding habits and prey contaminant levels. The population submodel includes fecundity and survival information, as well as a limit to the number of breeding pairs (carrying capacity) and a population of non-breeding subadults and adults (floaters). Model simulations are performed in a Monte Carlo framework. Results include estimates of the persistence, resistance and resilience of the population: the probability of extinction, the relationship between magnitude of stress and change in population size, and the time course of recovery of a population following a reduction in stress.« less

Metabolic rate and body size are linked with perception of temporal information☆

PubMed Central

Healy, Kevin; McNally, Luke; Ruxton, Graeme D.; Cooper, Natalie; Jackson, Andrew L.

2013-01-01

Body size and metabolic rate both fundamentally constrain how species interact with their environment, and hence ultimately affect their niche. While many mechanisms leading to these constraints have been explored, their effects on the resolution at which temporal information is perceived have been largely overlooked. The visual system acts as a gateway to the dynamic environment and the relative resolution at which organisms are able to acquire and process visual information is likely to restrict their ability to interact with events around them. As both smaller size and higher metabolic rates should facilitate rapid behavioural responses, we hypothesized that these traits would favour perception of temporal change over finer timescales. Using critical flicker fusion frequency, the lowest frequency of flashing at which a flickering light source is perceived as constant, as a measure of the maximum rate of temporal information processing in the visual system, we carried out a phylogenetic comparative analysis of a wide range of vertebrates that supported this hypothesis. Our results have implications for the evolution of signalling systems and predator–prey interactions, and, combined with the strong influence that both body mass and metabolism have on a species' ecological niche, suggest that time perception may constitute an important and overlooked dimension of niche differentiation. PMID:24109147

In vivo imaging of cancer cell size and cellularity using temporal diffusion spectroscopy.

PubMed

Jiang, Xiaoyu; Li, Hua; Xie, Jingping; McKinley, Eliot T; Zhao, Ping; Gore, John C; Xu, Junzhong

2017-07-01

A temporal diffusion MRI spectroscopy based approach has been developed to quantify cancer cell size and density in vivo. A novel imaging microstructural parameters using limited spectrally edited diffusion (IMPULSED) method selects a specific limited diffusion spectral window for an accurate quantification of cell sizes ranging from 10 to 20 μm in common solid tumors. In practice, it is achieved by a combination of a single long diffusion time pulsed gradient spin echo (PGSE) and three low-frequency oscillating gradient spin echo (OGSE) acquisitions. To validate our approach, hematoxylin and eosin staining and immunostaining of cell membranes, in concert with whole slide imaging, were used to visualize nuclei and cell boundaries, and hence, enabled accurate estimates of cell size and cellularity. Based on a two compartment model (incorporating intra- and extracellular spaces), accurate estimates of cell sizes were obtained in vivo for three types of human colon cancers. The IMPULSED-derived apparent cellularities showed a stronger correlation (r = 0.81; P < 0.0001) with histology-derived cellularities than conventional ADCs (r = -0.69; P < 0.03). The IMPULSED approach samples a specific region of temporal diffusion spectra with enhanced sensitivity to length scales of 10-20 μm, and enables measurements of cell sizes and cellularities in solid tumors in vivo. Magn Reson Med 78:156-164, 2017. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine. © 2016 International Society for Magnetic Resonance in Medicine.

Behavioral and Single-Neuron Sensitivity to Millisecond Variations in Temporally Patterned Communication Signals

PubMed Central

Baker, Christa A.; Ma, Lisa; Casareale, Chelsea R.

2016-01-01

In many sensory pathways, central neurons serve as temporal filters for timing patterns in communication signals. However, how a population of neurons with diverse temporal filtering properties codes for natural variation in communication signals is unknown. Here we addressed this question in the weakly electric fish Brienomyrus brachyistius, which varies the time intervals between successive electric organ discharges to communicate. These fish produce an individually stereotyped signal called a scallop, which consists of a distinctive temporal pattern of ∼8–12 electric pulses. We manipulated the temporal structure of natural scallops during behavioral playback and in vivo electrophysiology experiments to probe the temporal sensitivity of scallop encoding and recognition. We found that presenting time-reversed, randomized, or jittered scallops increased behavioral response thresholds, demonstrating that fish's electric signaling behavior was sensitive to the precise temporal structure of scallops. Next, using in vivo intracellular recordings and discriminant function analysis, we found that the responses of interval-selective midbrain neurons were also sensitive to the precise temporal structure of scallops. Subthreshold changes in membrane potential recorded from single neurons discriminated natural scallops from time-reversed, randomized, and jittered sequences. Pooling the responses of multiple neurons improved the discriminability of natural sequences from temporally manipulated sequences. Finally, we found that single-neuron responses were sensitive to interindividual variation in scallop sequences, raising the question of whether fish may analyze scallop structure to gain information about the sender. Collectively, these results demonstrate that a population of interval-selective neurons can encode behaviorally relevant temporal patterns with millisecond precision. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The timing patterns of action potentials, or spikes, play important roles in representing information in the nervous system. However, how these temporal patterns are recognized by downstream neurons is not well understood. Here we use the electrosensory system of mormyrid weakly electric fish to investigate how a population of neurons with diverse temporal filtering properties encodes behaviorally relevant input timing patterns, and how this relates to behavioral sensitivity. We show that fish are behaviorally sensitive to millisecond variations in natural, temporally patterned communication signals, and that the responses of individual midbrain neurons are also sensitive to variation in these patterns. In fact, the output of single neurons contains enough information to discriminate stereotyped communication signals produced by different individuals. PMID:27559179

Behavioral and Single-Neuron Sensitivity to Millisecond Variations in Temporally Patterned Communication Signals.

PubMed

Baker, Christa A; Ma, Lisa; Casareale, Chelsea R; Carlson, Bruce A

2016-08-24

In many sensory pathways, central neurons serve as temporal filters for timing patterns in communication signals. However, how a population of neurons with diverse temporal filtering properties codes for natural variation in communication signals is unknown. Here we addressed this question in the weakly electric fish Brienomyrus brachyistius, which varies the time intervals between successive electric organ discharges to communicate. These fish produce an individually stereotyped signal called a scallop, which consists of a distinctive temporal pattern of ∼8-12 electric pulses. We manipulated the temporal structure of natural scallops during behavioral playback and in vivo electrophysiology experiments to probe the temporal sensitivity of scallop encoding and recognition. We found that presenting time-reversed, randomized, or jittered scallops increased behavioral response thresholds, demonstrating that fish's electric signaling behavior was sensitive to the precise temporal structure of scallops. Next, using in vivo intracellular recordings and discriminant function analysis, we found that the responses of interval-selective midbrain neurons were also sensitive to the precise temporal structure of scallops. Subthreshold changes in membrane potential recorded from single neurons discriminated natural scallops from time-reversed, randomized, and jittered sequences. Pooling the responses of multiple neurons improved the discriminability of natural sequences from temporally manipulated sequences. Finally, we found that single-neuron responses were sensitive to interindividual variation in scallop sequences, raising the question of whether fish may analyze scallop structure to gain information about the sender. Collectively, these results demonstrate that a population of interval-selective neurons can encode behaviorally relevant temporal patterns with millisecond precision. The timing patterns of action potentials, or spikes, play important roles in representing information in the nervous system. However, how these temporal patterns are recognized by downstream neurons is not well understood. Here we use the electrosensory system of mormyrid weakly electric fish to investigate how a population of neurons with diverse temporal filtering properties encodes behaviorally relevant input timing patterns, and how this relates to behavioral sensitivity. We show that fish are behaviorally sensitive to millisecond variations in natural, temporally patterned communication signals, and that the responses of individual midbrain neurons are also sensitive to variation in these patterns. In fact, the output of single neurons contains enough information to discriminate stereotyped communication signals produced by different individuals. Copyright © 2016 the authors 0270-6474/16/368985-16$15.00/0.

Temporal genetic analysis of the endangered tidewater goby: extinction-colonization dynamics or drift in isolation?

PubMed

Kinziger, Andrew P; Hellmair, Michael; McCraney, W Tyler; Jacobs, David K; Goldsmith, Greg

2015-11-01

Extinction and colonization dynamics are critical to understanding the evolution and conservation of metapopulations. However, traditional field studies of extinction-colonization are potentially fraught with detection bias and have rarely been validated. Here, we provide a comparison of molecular and field-based approaches for assessment of the extinction-colonization dynamics of tidewater goby (Eucyclogobius newberryi) in northern California. Our analysis of temporal genetic variation across 14 northern California tidewater goby populations failed to recover genetic change expected with extinction-colonization cycles. Similarly, analysis of site occupancy data from field studies (94 sites) indicated that extinction and colonization are very infrequent for our study populations. Comparison of the approaches indicated field data were subject to imperfect detection, and falsely implied extinction-colonization cycles in several instances. For northern California populations of tidewater goby, we interpret the strong genetic differentiation between populations and high degree of within-site temporal stability as consistent with a model of drift in the absence of migration, at least over the past 20-30 years. Our findings show that tidewater goby exhibit different population structures across their geographic range (extinction-colonization dynamics in the south vs. drift in isolation in the north). For northern populations, natural dispersal is too infrequent to be considered a viable approach for recolonizing extirpated populations, suggesting that species recovery will likely depend on artificial translocation in this region. More broadly, this work illustrates that temporal genetic analysis can be used in combination with field data to strengthen inference of extinction-colonization dynamics or as a stand-alone tool when field data are lacking. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Macromolecular Crowding Induces Spatial Correlations That Control Gene Expression Bursting Patterns

DOE PAGES

Norred, Sarah Elizabeth; Caveney, Patrick M.; Chauhan, Gaurav; ...

2018-04-24

Recent superresolution microscopy studies in E. coli demonstrate that the cytoplasm has highly variable local concentrations where macromolecular crowding plays a central role in establishing membrane-less compartmentalization. This spatial inhomogeneity significantly influences molecular transport and association processes central to gene expression. Yet, little is known about how macromolecular crowding influences gene expression bursting—the episodic process where mRNA and proteins are produced in bursts. Here, we simultaneously measured mRNA and protein reporters in cell-free systems, showing that macromolecular crowding decoupled the well-known relationship between fluctuations in the protein population (noise) and mRNA population statistics. Crowded environments led to a 10-fold increasemore » in protein noise even though there were only modest changes in the mRNA population and fluctuations. Instead, cell-like macromolecular crowding created an inhomogeneous spatial distribution of mRNA (“spatial noise”) that led to large variability in the protein production burst size. As a result, the mRNA spatial noise created large temporal fluctuations in the protein population. Furthermore, these results highlight the interplay between macromolecular crowding, spatial inhomogeneities, and the resulting dynamics of gene expression, and provide insights into using these organizational principles in both cell-based and cell-free synthetic biology.« less

Macromolecular Crowding Induces Spatial Correlations That Control Gene Expression Bursting Patterns

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Norred, Sarah Elizabeth; Caveney, Patrick M.; Chauhan, Gaurav

Recent superresolution microscopy studies in E. coli demonstrate that the cytoplasm has highly variable local concentrations where macromolecular crowding plays a central role in establishing membrane-less compartmentalization. This spatial inhomogeneity significantly influences molecular transport and association processes central to gene expression. Yet, little is known about how macromolecular crowding influences gene expression bursting—the episodic process where mRNA and proteins are produced in bursts. Here, we simultaneously measured mRNA and protein reporters in cell-free systems, showing that macromolecular crowding decoupled the well-known relationship between fluctuations in the protein population (noise) and mRNA population statistics. Crowded environments led to a 10-fold increasemore » in protein noise even though there were only modest changes in the mRNA population and fluctuations. Instead, cell-like macromolecular crowding created an inhomogeneous spatial distribution of mRNA (“spatial noise”) that led to large variability in the protein production burst size. As a result, the mRNA spatial noise created large temporal fluctuations in the protein population. Furthermore, these results highlight the interplay between macromolecular crowding, spatial inhomogeneities, and the resulting dynamics of gene expression, and provide insights into using these organizational principles in both cell-based and cell-free synthetic biology.« less