Evolution of stochastic demography with life history tradeoffs in density-dependent age-structured populations.

PubMed

Lande, Russell; Engen, Steinar; Sæther, Bernt-Erik

2017-10-31

We analyze the stochastic demography and evolution of a density-dependent age- (or stage-) structured population in a fluctuating environment. A positive linear combination of age classes (e.g., weighted by body mass) is assumed to act as the single variable of population size, [Formula: see text], exerting density dependence on age-specific vital rates through an increasing function of population size. The environment fluctuates in a stationary distribution with no autocorrelation. We show by analysis and simulation of age structure, under assumptions often met by vertebrate populations, that the stochastic dynamics of population size can be accurately approximated by a univariate model governed by three key demographic parameters: the intrinsic rate of increase and carrying capacity in the average environment, [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], and the environmental variance in population growth rate, [Formula: see text] Allowing these parameters to be genetically variable and to evolve, but assuming that a fourth parameter, [Formula: see text], measuring the nonlinearity of density dependence, remains constant, the expected evolution maximizes [Formula: see text] This shows that the magnitude of environmental stochasticity governs the classical trade-off between selection for higher [Formula: see text] versus higher [Formula: see text] However, selection also acts to decrease [Formula: see text], so the simple life-history trade-off between [Formula: see text]- and [Formula: see text]-selection may be obscured by additional trade-offs between them and [Formula: see text] Under the classical logistic model of population growth with linear density dependence ([Formula: see text]), life-history evolution in a fluctuating environment tends to maximize the average population size. Published under the PNAS license.

Consequences of the Allee effect and intraspecific competition on population persistence under adverse environmental conditions.

PubMed

Petrovskii, Sergei; Blackshaw, Rod; Li, Bai-Lian

2008-02-01

The impact of intraspecific interactions on ecological stability and population persistence in terms of steady state(s) existence is considered theoretically based on a general competition model. We compare persistence of a structured population consisting of a few interacting (competitive) subpopulations, or groups, to persistence of the corresponding unstructured population. For a general case, we show that if the intra-group competition is stronger than the inter-group competition, then the structured population is less prone to extinction, i.e. it can persist in a parameter range where the unstructured population goes extinct. For a more specific case of a population with hierarchical competition, we show that relative viability of structured and unstructured populations depend on the type of density dependence in the population growth. Namely, while in the case of logistic growth, structured and unstructured populations exhibit equivalent persistence; in the case of Allee dynamics, the persistence of a hierarchically structured population is shown to be higher. We then apply these results to the case of behaviourally structured populations and demonstrate that an extreme form of individual aggression can be beneficial at the population level and enhance population persistence.

Evaluating trade-offs in bull trout reintroduction strategies using structured decision making

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brignon, William R.; Peterson, James T.; Dunham, Jason B.; Schaller, Howard A.; Schreck, Carl B.

2018-01-01

Structured decision making allows reintroduction decisions to be made despite uncertainty by linking reintroduction goals with alternative management actions through predictive models of ecological processes. We developed a decision model to evaluate the trade-offs between six bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) reintroduction decisions with the goal of maximizing the number of adults in the recipient population without reducing the donor population to an unacceptable level. Sensitivity analyses suggested that the decision identity and outcome were most influenced by survival parameters that result in increased adult abundance in the recipient population, increased juvenile survival in the donor and recipient populations, adult fecundity rates, and sex ratio. The decision was least sensitive to survival parameters associated with the captive-reared population, the effect of naivety on released individuals, and juvenile carrying capacity of the reintroduced population. The model and sensitivity analyses can serve as the foundation for formal adaptive management and improved effectiveness, efficiency, and transparency of bull trout reintroduction decisions.

Ecotoxicology and spatial modeling in population dynamics: an illustration with brown trout.

PubMed

Chaumot, Arnaud; Charles, Sandrine; Flammarion, Patrick; Auger, Pierre

2003-05-01

We developed a multiregion matrix population model to explore how the demography of a hypothetical brown trout population living in a river network varies in response to different spatial scenarios of cadmium contamination. Age structure, spatial distribution, and demographic and migration processes are taken into account in the model. Chronic or acute cadmium concentrations affect the demographic parameters at the scale of the river range. The outputs of the model constitute population-level end points (the asymptotic population growth rate, the stable age structure, and the asymptotic spatial distribution) that allow comparing the different spatial scenarios of contamination regarding the demographic response at the scale of the whole river network. An analysis of the sensitivity of these end points to lower order parameters enables us to link the local effects of cadmium to the global demographic behavior of the brown trout population. Such a link is of broad interest in the point of view of ecotoxicological management.

Analysis of population genetic structure and gene flow in an annual plant before and after a rapid evolutionary response to drought.

PubMed

Welt, Rachel S; Litt, Amy; Franks, Steven J

2015-03-27

The impact of environmental change on population structure is not well understood. This study aimed to examine the effect of a climate change event on gene flow over space and time in two populations of Brassica rapa that evolved more synchronous flowering times over 5 years of drought in southern California. Using plants grown from seeds collected before and after the drought, we estimated genetic parameters within and between populations and across generations. We expected that with greater temporal opportunity to cross-pollinate, due to reduced phenological isolation, these populations would exhibit an increase in gene flow following the drought. We found low but significant FST, but no change in FST or Nm across the drought, in contrast to predictions. Bayesian analysis of these data indicates minor differentiation between the two populations but no noticeable change in structure before and after the shift in flowering times. However, we found high and significant levels of FIS, indicating that inbreeding likely occurred in these populations despite self-incompatibility in B. rapa. In this system, we did not find an impact of climate change on gene flow or population structuring. The contribution of gene flow to adaptive evolution may vary by system, however, and is thus an important parameter to consider in further studies of natural responses to environmental change. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Annals of Botany Company.

Understanding the demographic drivers of realized population growth rates.

PubMed

Koons, David N; Arnold, Todd W; Schaub, Michael

2017-10-01

Identifying the demographic parameters (e.g., reproduction, survival, dispersal) that most influence population dynamics can increase conservation effectiveness and enhance ecological understanding. Life table response experiments (LTRE) aim to decompose the effects of change in parameters on past demographic outcomes (e.g., population growth rates). But the vast majority of LTREs and other retrospective population analyses have focused on decomposing asymptotic population growth rates, which do not account for the dynamic interplay between population structure and vital rates that shape realized population growth rates (λt=Nt+1/Nt) in time-varying environments. We provide an empirical means to overcome these shortcomings by merging recently developed "transient life-table response experiments" with integrated population models (IPMs). IPMs allow for the estimation of latent population structure and other demographic parameters that are required for transient LTRE analysis, and Bayesian versions additionally allow for complete error propagation from the estimation of demographic parameters to derivations of realized population growth rates and perturbation analyses of growth rates. By integrating available monitoring data for Lesser Scaup over 60 yr, and conducting transient LTREs on IPM estimates, we found that the contribution of juvenile female survival to long-term variation in realized population growth rates was 1.6 and 3.7 times larger than that of adult female survival and fecundity, respectively. But a persistent long-term decline in fecundity explained 92% of the decline in abundance between 1983 and 2006. In contrast, an improvement in adult female survival drove the modest recovery in Lesser Scaup abundance since 2006, indicating that the most important demographic drivers of Lesser Scaup population dynamics are temporally dynamic. In addition to resolving uncertainty about Lesser Scaup population dynamics, the merger of IPMs with transient LTREs will strengthen our understanding of demography for many species as we aim to conserve biodiversity during an era of non-stationary global change. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Parameter Stability of the Functional–Structural Plant Model GREENLAB as Affected by Variation within Populations, among Seasons and among Growth Stages

PubMed Central

Ma, Yuntao; Li, Baoguo; Zhan, Zhigang; Guo, Yan; Luquet, Delphine; de Reffye, Philippe; Dingkuhn, Michael

2007-01-01

Background and Aims It is increasingly accepted that crop models, if they are to simulate genotype-specific behaviour accurately, should simulate the morphogenetic process generating plant architecture. A functional–structural plant model, GREENLAB, was previously presented and validated for maize. The model is based on a recursive mathematical process, with parameters whose values cannot be measured directly and need to be optimized statistically. This study aims at evaluating the stability of GREENLAB parameters in response to three types of phenotype variability: (1) among individuals from a common population; (2) among populations subjected to different environments (seasons); and (3) among different development stages of the same plants. Methods Five field experiments were conducted in the course of 4 years on irrigated fields near Beijing, China. Detailed observations were conducted throughout the seasons on the dimensions and fresh biomass of all above-ground plant organs for each metamer. Growth stage-specific target files were assembled from the data for GREENLAB parameter optimization. Optimization was conducted for specific developmental stages or the entire growth cycle, for individual plants (replicates), and for different seasons. Parameter stability was evaluated by comparing their CV with that of phenotype observation for the different sources of variability. A reduced data set was developed for easier model parameterization using one season, and validated for the four other seasons. Key Results and Conclusions The analysis of parameter stability among plants sharing the same environment and among populations grown in different environments indicated that the model explains some of the inter-seasonal variability of phenotype (parameters varied less than the phenotype itself), but not inter-plant variability (parameter and phenotype variability were similar). Parameter variability among developmental stages was small, indicating that parameter values were largely development-stage independent. The authors suggest that the high level of parameter stability observed in GREENLAB can be used to conduct comparisons among genotypes and, ultimately, genetic analyses. PMID:17158141

A statistical approach to quasi-extinction forecasting.

PubMed

Holmes, Elizabeth Eli; Sabo, John L; Viscido, Steven Vincent; Fagan, William Fredric

2007-12-01

Forecasting population decline to a certain critical threshold (the quasi-extinction risk) is one of the central objectives of population viability analysis (PVA), and such predictions figure prominently in the decisions of major conservation organizations. In this paper, we argue that accurate forecasting of a population's quasi-extinction risk does not necessarily require knowledge of the underlying biological mechanisms. Because of the stochastic and multiplicative nature of population growth, the ensemble behaviour of population trajectories converges to common statistical forms across a wide variety of stochastic population processes. This paper provides a theoretical basis for this argument. We show that the quasi-extinction surfaces of a variety of complex stochastic population processes (including age-structured, density-dependent and spatially structured populations) can be modelled by a simple stochastic approximation: the stochastic exponential growth process overlaid with Gaussian errors. Using simulated and real data, we show that this model can be estimated with 20-30 years of data and can provide relatively unbiased quasi-extinction risk with confidence intervals considerably smaller than (0,1). This was found to be true even for simulated data derived from some of the noisiest population processes (density-dependent feedback, species interactions and strong age-structure cycling). A key advantage of statistical models is that their parameters and the uncertainty of those parameters can be estimated from time series data using standard statistical methods. In contrast for most species of conservation concern, biologically realistic models must often be specified rather than estimated because of the limited data available for all the various parameters. Biologically realistic models will always have a prominent place in PVA for evaluating specific management options which affect a single segment of a population, a single demographic rate, or different geographic areas. However, for forecasting quasi-extinction risk, statistical models that are based on the convergent statistical properties of population processes offer many advantages over biologically realistic models.

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zou, Xingfu

2018-05-21

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.

Visual Basic, Excel-based fish population modeling tool - The pallid sturgeon example

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moran, Edward H.; Wildhaber, Mark L.; Green, Nicholas S.; Albers, Janice L.

2016-02-10

The model presented in this report is a spreadsheet-based model using Visual Basic for Applications within Microsoft Excel (http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7057D0Z) prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. It uses the same model structure and, initially, parameters as used by Wildhaber and others (2015) for pallid sturgeon. The difference between the model structure used for this report and that used by Wildhaber and others (2015) is that variance is not partitioned. For the model of this report, all variance is applied at the iteration and time-step levels of the model. Wildhaber and others (2015) partition variance into parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level and temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations with time) applied at the time-step level. They included implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) within the time-step level.The interface developed for the model of this report is designed to allow the user the flexibility to change population model structure and parameter values and uncertainty separately for every component of the model. This flexibility makes the modeling tool potentially applicable to any fish species; however, the flexibility inherent in this modeling tool makes it possible for the user to obtain spurious outputs. The value and reliability of the model outputs are only as good as the model inputs. Using this modeling tool with improper or inaccurate parameter values, or for species for which the structure of the model is inappropriate, could lead to untenable management decisions. By facilitating fish population modeling, this modeling tool allows the user to evaluate a range of management options and implications. The goal of this modeling tool is to be a user-friendly modeling tool for developing fish population models useful to natural resource managers to inform their decision-making processes; however, as with all population models, caution is needed, and a full understanding of the limitations of a model and the veracity of user-supplied parameters should always be considered when using such model output in the management of any species.

Forensic parameters of the Investigator DIPplex kit (Qiagen) in six Mexican populations.

PubMed

Martínez-Cortés, G; García-Aceves, M; Favela-Mendoza, A F; Muñoz-Valle, J F; Velarde-Felix, J S; Rangel-Villalobos, H

2016-05-01

Allele frequencies and statistical parameters of forensic efficiency for 30 deletion-insertion polymorphisms (DIPs) were estimated in six Mexican populations. For this purpose, 421 unrelated individuals were analyzed with the Investigator DIPplex kit. The Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium was demonstrated for this 30-plex system in all six populations. We estimated the combined power of discrimination (PD ≥ 99.999999%) and combined power of exclusion (PE ≥ 98.632705%) for this genetic system. A low but significant genetic structure was demonstrated among these six populations by pairwise comparisons and AMOVA (F ST ≥ 0.7054; p ≤ 0.0007), which allows clustering populations in agreement with geographical criteria: Northwest, Center, and Southeast.

Experimental design and efficient parameter estimation in preclinical pharmacokinetic studies.

PubMed

Ette, E I; Howie, C A; Kelman, A W; Whiting, B

1995-05-01

Monte Carlo simulation technique used to evaluate the effect of the arrangement of concentrations on the efficiency of estimation of population pharmacokinetic parameters in the preclinical setting is described. Although the simulations were restricted to the one compartment model with intravenous bolus input, they provide the basis of discussing some structural aspects involved in designing a destructive ("quantic") preclinical population pharmacokinetic study with a fixed sample size as is usually the case in such studies. The efficiency of parameter estimation obtained with sampling strategies based on the three and four time point designs were evaluated in terms of the percent prediction error, design number, individual and joint confidence intervals coverage for parameter estimates approaches, and correlation analysis. The data sets contained random terms for both inter- and residual intra-animal variability. The results showed that the typical population parameter estimates for clearance and volume were efficiently (accurately and precisely) estimated for both designs, while interanimal variability (the only random effect parameter that could be estimated) was inefficiently (inaccurately and imprecisely) estimated with most sampling schedules of the two designs. The exact location of the third and fourth time point for the three and four time point designs, respectively, was not critical to the efficiency of overall estimation of all population parameters of the model. However, some individual population pharmacokinetic parameters were sensitive to the location of these times.

Testing the equivalence of modern human cranial covariance structure: Implications for bioarchaeological applications.

PubMed

von Cramon-Taubadel, Noreen; Schroeder, Lauren

2016-10-01

Estimation of the variance-covariance (V/CV) structure of fragmentary bioarchaeological populations requires the use of proxy extant V/CV parameters. However, it is currently unclear whether extant human populations exhibit equivalent V/CV structures. Random skewers (RS) and hierarchical analyses of common principal components (CPC) were applied to a modern human cranial dataset. Cranial V/CV similarity was assessed globally for samples of individual populations (jackknifed method) and for pairwise population sample contrasts. The results were examined in light of potential explanatory factors for covariance difference, such as geographic region, among-group distance, and sample size. RS analyses showed that population samples exhibited highly correlated multivariate responses to selection, and that differences in RS results were primarily a consequence of differences in sample size. The CPC method yielded mixed results, depending upon the statistical criterion used to evaluate the hierarchy. The hypothesis-testing (step-up) approach was deemed problematic due to sensitivity to low statistical power and elevated Type I errors. In contrast, the model-fitting (lowest AIC) approach suggested that V/CV matrices were proportional and/or shared a large number of CPCs. Pairwise population sample CPC results were correlated with cranial distance, suggesting that population history explains some of the variability in V/CV structure among groups. The results indicate that patterns of covariance in human craniometric samples are broadly similar but not identical. These findings have important implications for choosing extant covariance matrices to use as proxy V/CV parameters in evolutionary analyses of past populations. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Differentiating between Distance/Open Education Systems: Parameters for Comparison.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guri-Rozenblit, Sarah

1993-01-01

Suggests eight parameters as criteria for describing and comparing distance education/open learning institutions: target population, dimensions of openness, organizational structure, design and development of learning materials, use of advanced technology, teaching/tutoring system, student support systems, and interinstitutional collaboration. (35…

A Comparison of Limited-Information and Full-Information Methods in M"plus" for Estimating Item Response Theory Parameters for Nonnormal Populations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DeMars, Christine E.

2012-01-01

In structural equation modeling software, either limited-information (bivariate proportions) or full-information item parameter estimation routines could be used for the 2-parameter item response theory (IRT) model. Limited-information methods assume the continuous variable underlying an item response is normally distributed. For skewed and…

Forensic performance of Investigator DIPplex indels genotyping kit in native, immigrant, and admixed populations in South Africa.

PubMed

Hefke, Gwynneth; Davison, Sean; D'Amato, Maria Eugenia

2015-12-01

The utilization of binary markers in human individual identification is gaining ground in forensic genetics. We analyzed the polymorphisms from the first commercial indel kit Investigator DIPplex (Qiagen) in 512 individuals from Afrikaner, Indian, admixed Cape Colored, and the native Bantu Xhosa and Zulu origin in South Africa and evaluated forensic and population genetics parameters for their forensic application in South Africa. The levels of genetic diversity in population and forensic parameters in South Africa are similar to other published data, with lower diversity values for the native Bantu. Departures from Hardy-Weinberg expectations were observed in HLD97 in Indians, Admixed and Bantus, along with 6.83% null homozygotes in the Bantu populations. Sequencing of the flanking regions showed a previously reported transition G>A in rs17245568. Strong population structure was detected with Fst, AMOVA, and the Bayesian unsupervised clustering method in STRUCTURE. Therefore we evaluated the efficiency of individual assignments to population groups using the ancestral membership proportions from STRUCTURE and the Bayesian classification algorithm in Snipper App Suite. Both methods showed low cross-assignment error (0-4%) between Bantus and either Afrikaners or Indians. The differentiation between populations seems to be driven by four loci under positive selection pressure. Based on these results, we draw recommendations for the application of this kit in SA. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Impact of biology knowledge on the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

PubMed

Yokoi, Hiroki; Ijima, Hirotaka; Ohshimo, Seiji; Yokawa, Kotaro

2017-09-06

Population growth rate, which depends on several biological parameters, is valuable information for the conservation and management of pelagic sharks, such as blue and shortfin mako sharks. However, reported biological parameters for estimating the population growth rates of these sharks differ by sex and display large variability. To estimate the appropriate population growth rate and clarify relationships between growth rate and relevant biological parameters, we developed a two-sex age-structured matrix population model and estimated the population growth rate using combinations of biological parameters. We addressed elasticity analysis and clarified the population growth rate sensitivity. For the blue shark, the estimated median population growth rate was 0.384 with a range of minimum and maximum values of 0.195-0.533, whereas those values of the shortfin mako shark were 0.102 and 0.007-0.318, respectively. The maturity age of male sharks had the largest impact for blue sharks, whereas that of female sharks had the largest impact for shortfin mako sharks. Hypotheses for the survival process of sharks also had a large impact on the population growth rate estimation. Both shark maturity age and survival rate were based on ageing validation data, indicating the importance of validating the quality of these data for the conservation and management of large pelagic sharks.

A general population-genetic model for the production by population structure of spurious genotype-phenotype associations in discrete, admixed or spatially distributed populations.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Noah A; Nordborg, Magnus

2006-07-01

In linkage disequilibrium mapping of genetic variants causally associated with phenotypes, spurious associations can potentially be generated by any of a variety of types of population structure. However, mathematical theory of the production of spurious associations has largely been restricted to population structure models that involve the sampling of individuals from a collection of discrete subpopulations. Here, we introduce a general model of spurious association in structured populations, appropriate whether the population structure involves discrete groups, admixture among such groups, or continuous variation across space. Under the assumptions of the model, we find that a single common principle--applicable to both the discrete and admixed settings as well as to spatial populations--gives a necessary and sufficient condition for the occurrence of spurious associations. Using a mathematical connection between the discrete and admixed cases, we show that in admixed populations, spurious associations are less severe than in corresponding mixtures of discrete subpopulations, especially when the variance of admixture across individuals is small. This observation, together with the results of simulations that examine the relative influences of various model parameters, has important implications for the design and analysis of genetic association studies in structured populations.

Does standardised structured reporting contribute to quality in diagnostic pathology? The importance of evidence-based datasets.

PubMed

Ellis, D W; Srigley, J

2016-01-01

Key quality parameters in diagnostic pathology include timeliness, accuracy, completeness, conformance with current agreed standards, consistency and clarity in communication. In this review, we argue that with worldwide developments in eHealth and big data, generally, there are two further, often overlooked, parameters if our reports are to be fit for purpose. Firstly, population-level studies have clearly demonstrated the value of providing timely structured reporting data in standardised electronic format as part of system-wide quality improvement programmes. Moreover, when combined with multiple health data sources through eHealth and data linkage, structured pathology reports become central to population-level quality monitoring, benchmarking, interventions and benefit analyses in public health management. Secondly, population-level studies, particularly for benchmarking, require a single agreed international and evidence-based standard to ensure interoperability and comparability. This has been taken for granted in tumour classification and staging for many years, yet international standardisation of cancer datasets is only now underway through the International Collaboration on Cancer Reporting (ICCR). In this review, we present evidence supporting the role of structured pathology reporting in quality improvement for both clinical care and population-level health management. Although this review of available evidence largely relates to structured reporting of cancer, it is clear that the same principles can be applied throughout anatomical pathology generally, as they are elsewhere in the health system.

Low genetic variability, female-biased dispersal and high movement rates in an urban population of Eurasian badgers Meles meles.

PubMed

Reeve, John D; Frantz, Alain C; Dawson, Deborah A; Burke, Terry; Roper, Timothy J

2008-09-01

1. Urban and rural populations of animals can differ in their behaviour, both in order to meet their ecological requirements and due to the constraints imposed by different environments. The study of urban populations can therefore offer useful insights into the behavioural flexibility of a species as a whole, as well as indicating how the species in question adapts to a specifically urban environment. 2. The genetic structure of a population can provide information about social structure and movement patterns that is difficult to obtain by other means. Using non-invasively collected hair samples, we estimated the population size of Eurasian badgers Meles meles in the city of Brighton, England, and calculated population-specific parameters of genetic variability and sex-specific rates of outbreeding and dispersal. 3. Population density was high in the context of badger densities reported throughout their range. This was due to a high density of social groups rather than large numbers of individuals per group. 4. The allelic richness of the population was low compared with other British populations. However, the rate of extra-group paternity and the relatively frequent (mainly temporary) intergroup movements suggest that, on a local scale, the population was outbred. Although members of both sexes visited other groups, there was a trend for more females to make intergroup movements. 5. The results reveal that urban badgers can achieve high densities and suggest that while some population parameters are similar between urban and rural populations, the frequency of intergroup movements is higher among urban badgers. In a wider context, these results demonstrate the ability of non-invasive genetic sampling to provide information about the population density, social structure and behaviour of urban wildlife.

Approximate Bayesian computation in large-scale structure: constraining the galaxy-halo connection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hahn, ChangHoon; Vakili, Mohammadjavad; Walsh, Kilian; Hearin, Andrew P.; Hogg, David W.; Campbell, Duncan

2017-08-01

Standard approaches to Bayesian parameter inference in large-scale structure assume a Gaussian functional form (chi-squared form) for the likelihood. This assumption, in detail, cannot be correct. Likelihood free inferences such as approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) relax these restrictions and make inference possible without making any assumptions on the likelihood. Instead ABC relies on a forward generative model of the data and a metric for measuring the distance between the model and data. In this work, we demonstrate that ABC is feasible for LSS parameter inference by using it to constrain parameters of the halo occupation distribution (HOD) model for populating dark matter haloes with galaxies. Using specific implementation of ABC supplemented with population Monte Carlo importance sampling, a generative forward model using HOD and a distance metric based on galaxy number density, two-point correlation function and galaxy group multiplicity function, we constrain the HOD parameters of mock observation generated from selected 'true' HOD parameters. The parameter constraints we obtain from ABC are consistent with the 'true' HOD parameters, demonstrating that ABC can be reliably used for parameter inference in LSS. Furthermore, we compare our ABC constraints to constraints we obtain using a pseudo-likelihood function of Gaussian form with MCMC and find consistent HOD parameter constraints. Ultimately, our results suggest that ABC can and should be applied in parameter inference for LSS analyses.

Phenotypic diversity, population structure and stress protein-based capacitoring in populations of Xeropicta derbentina, a heat-tolerant land snail species.

PubMed

Di Lellis, Maddalena A; Sereda, Sergej; Geißler, Anna; Picot, Adrien; Arnold, Petra; Lang, Stefanie; Troschinski, Sandra; Dieterich, Andreas; Hauffe, Torsten; Capowiez, Yvan; Mazzia, Christophe; Knigge, Thomas; Monsinjon, Tiphaine; Krais, Stefanie; Wilke, Thomas; Triebskorn, Rita; Köhler, Heinz-R

2014-11-01

The shell colour of many pulmonate land snail species is highly diverse. Besides a genetic basis, environmentally triggered epigenetic mechanisms including stress proteins as evolutionary capacitors are thought to influence such phenotypic diversity. In this study, we investigated the relationship of stress protein (Hsp70) levels with temperature stress tolerance, population structure and phenotypic diversity within and among different populations of a xerophilic Mediterranean snail species (Xeropicta derbentina). Hsp70 levels varied considerably among populations, and were significantly associated with shell colour diversity: individuals in populations exhibiting low diversity expressed higher Hsp70 levels both constitutively and under heat stress than those of phenotypically diverse populations. In contrast, population structure (cytochrome c oxidase subunit I gene) did not correlate with phenotypic diversity. However, genetic parameters (both within and among population differences) were able to explain variation in Hsp70 induction at elevated but non-pathologic temperatures. Our observation that (1) population structure had a high explanatory potential for Hsp70 induction and that (2) Hsp70 levels, in turn, correlated with phenotypic diversity while (3) population structure and phenotypic diversity failed to correlate provides empirical evidence for Hsp70 to act as a mediator between genotypic variation and phenotype and thus for chaperone-driven evolutionary capacitance in natural populations.

Calculating expected DNA remnants from ancient founding events in human population genetics

PubMed Central

Stacey, Andrew; Sheffield, Nathan C; Crandall, Keith A

2008-01-01

Background Recent advancements in sequencing and computational technologies have led to rapid generation and analysis of high quality genetic data. Such genetic data have achieved wide acceptance in studies of historic human population origins and admixture. However, in studies relating to small, recent admixture events, genetic factors such as historic population sizes, genetic drift, and mutation can have pronounced effects on data reliability and utility. To address these issues we conducted genetic simulations targeting influential genetic parameters in admixed populations. Results We performed a series of simulations, adjusting variable values to assess the affect of these genetic parameters on current human population studies and what these studies infer about past population structure. Final mean allele frequencies varied from 0.0005 to over 0.50, depending on the parameters. Conclusion The results of the simulations illustrate that, while genetic data may be sensitive and powerful in large genetic studies, caution must be used when applying genetic information to small, recent admixture events. For some parameter sets, genetic data will not be adequate to detect historic admixture. In such cases, studies should consider anthropologic, archeological, and linguistic data where possible. PMID:18928554

Effects of aging on sleep structure throughout adulthood: a population-based study.

PubMed

Moraes, Walter; Piovezan, Ronaldo; Poyares, Dalva; Bittencourt, Lia Rita; Santos-Silva, Rogerio; Tufik, Sergio

2014-04-01

Although many studies have shown the evolution of sleep parameters across the lifespan, not many have included a representative sample of the general population. The objective of this study was to describe age-related changes in sleep structure, sleep respiratory parameters and periodic limb movements of the adult population of São Paulo. We selected a representative sample of the city of São Paulo, Brazil that included both genders and an age range of 20-80 years. Pregnant and lactating women, people with physical or mental impairments that prevent self-care and people who work every night were not included. This sample included 1024 individuals who were submitted to polysomnography and structured interviews. We subdivided our sample into five-year age groups. One-way analysis of variance was used to compare age groups. Pearson product-moment was used to evaluate correlation between age and sleep parameters. Total sleep time, sleep efficiency, percentage of rapid eye movement (REM) sleep and slow wave sleep showed a significant age-related decrease (P<0.05). WASO (night-time spent awake after sleep onset), arousal index, sleep latency, REM sleep latency, and the percentage of stages 1 and 2 showed a significant increase (P<0.05). Furthermore, apnea-hypopnea index increased and oxygen saturation decreased with age. The reduction in the percentage of REM sleep significantly correlated with age in women, whereas the reduction in the percentage of slow wave sleep correlated with age in men. The periodic limb movement (PLM) index increased with age in men and women. Sleep structure and duration underwent significant alterations throughout the aging process in the general population. There was an important correlation between age, sleep respiratory parameters and PLM index. In addition, men and women showed similar trends but with different effect sizes. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

On the Number of Neurons and Time Scale of Integration Underlying the Formation of Percepts in the Brain

PubMed Central

Wohrer, Adrien; Machens, Christian K.

2015-01-01

All of our perceptual experiences arise from the activity of neural populations. Here we study the formation of such percepts under the assumption that they emerge from a linear readout, i.e., a weighted sum of the neurons’ firing rates. We show that this assumption constrains the trial-to-trial covariance structure of neural activities and animal behavior. The predicted covariance structure depends on the readout parameters, and in particular on the temporal integration window w and typical number of neurons K used in the formation of the percept. Using these predictions, we show how to infer the readout parameters from joint measurements of a subject’s behavior and neural activities. We consider three such scenarios: (1) recordings from the complete neural population, (2) recordings of neuronal sub-ensembles whose size exceeds K, and (3) recordings of neuronal sub-ensembles that are smaller than K. Using theoretical arguments and artificially generated data, we show that the first two scenarios allow us to recover the typical spatial and temporal scales of the readout. In the third scenario, we show that the readout parameters can only be recovered by making additional assumptions about the structure of the full population activity. Our work provides the first thorough interpretation of (feed-forward) percept formation from a population of sensory neurons. We discuss applications to experimental recordings in classic sensory decision-making tasks, which will hopefully provide new insights into the nature of perceptual integration. PMID:25793393

The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

The cultural implications of growth: Modeling nonlinear interaction of trait selection and population dynamics.

PubMed

Antoci, Angelo; Galeotti, Marcello; Russu, Paolo; Luigi Sacco, Pier

2018-05-01

In this paper, we study a nonlinear model of the interaction between trait selection and population dynamics, building on previous work of Ghirlanda et al. [Theor. Popul. Biol. 77, 181-188 (2010)] and Antoci et al. [Commun. Nonlinear Sci. Numer. Simul. 58, 92-106 (2018)]. We establish some basic properties of the model dynamics and present some simulations of the fine-grained structure of alternative dynamic regimes for chosen combinations of parameters. The role of the parameters that govern the reinforcement/corruption of maladaptive vs. adaptive traits is of special importance in determining the model's dynamic evolution. The main implication of this result is the need to pay special attention to the structural forces that may favor the emergence and consolidation of maladaptive traits in contemporary socio-economies, as it is the case, for example, for the stimulation of dysfunctional consumption habits and lifestyles in the pursuit of short-term profits.

A size-structured model of bacterial growth and reproduction.

PubMed

Ellermeyer, S F; Pilyugin, S S

2012-01-01

We consider a size-structured bacterial population model in which the rate of cell growth is both size- and time-dependent and the average per capita reproduction rate is specified as a model parameter. It is shown that the model admits classical solutions. The population-level and distribution-level behaviours of these solutions are then determined in terms of the model parameters. The distribution-level behaviour is found to be different from that found in similar models of bacterial population dynamics. Rather than convergence to a stable size distribution, we find that size distributions repeat in cycles. This phenomenon is observed in similar models only under special assumptions on the functional form of the size-dependent growth rate factor. Our main results are illustrated with examples, and we also provide an introductory study of the bacterial growth in a chemostat within the framework of our model.

Stochastic differential equations in NONMEM: implementation, application, and comparison with ordinary differential equations.

PubMed

Tornøe, Christoffer W; Overgaard, Rune V; Agersø, Henrik; Nielsen, Henrik A; Madsen, Henrik; Jonsson, E Niclas

2005-08-01

The objective of the present analysis was to explore the use of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modeling. The intra-individual variability in nonlinear mixed-effects models based on SDEs is decomposed into two types of noise: a measurement and a system noise term. The measurement noise represents uncorrelated error due to, for example, assay error while the system noise accounts for structural misspecifications, approximations of the dynamical model, and true random physiological fluctuations. Since the system noise accounts for model misspecifications, the SDEs provide a diagnostic tool for model appropriateness. The focus of the article is on the implementation of the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) in NONMEM for parameter estimation in SDE models. Various applications of SDEs in population PK/PD modeling are illustrated through a systematic model development example using clinical PK data of the gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonist degarelix. The dynamic noise estimates were used to track variations in model parameters and systematically build an absorption model for subcutaneously administered degarelix. The EKF-based algorithm was successfully implemented in NONMEM for parameter estimation in population PK/PD models described by systems of SDEs. The example indicated that it was possible to pinpoint structural model deficiencies, and that valuable information may be obtained by tracking unexplained variations in parameters.

Inter-Individual Variability in High-Throughput Risk ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We incorporate realistic human variability into an open-source high-throughput (HT) toxicokinetics (TK) modeling framework for use in a next-generation risk prioritization approach. Risk prioritization involves rapid triage of thousands of environmental chemicals, most which have little or no existing TK data. Chemicals are prioritized based on model estimates of hazard and exposure, to decide which chemicals should be first in line for further study. Hazard may be estimated with in vitro HT screening assays, e.g., U.S. EPA’s ToxCast program. Bioactive ToxCast concentrations can be extrapolated to doses that produce equivalent concentrations in body tissues using a reverse TK approach in which generic TK models are parameterized with 1) chemical-specific parameters derived from in vitro measurements and predicted from chemical structure; and 2) with physiological parameters for a virtual population. Here we draw physiological parameters from realistic estimates of distributions of demographic and anthropometric quantities in the modern U.S. population, based on the most recent CDC NHANES data. A Monte Carlo approach, accounting for the correlation structure in physiological parameters, is used to estimate ToxCast equivalent doses for the most sensitive portion of the population. To quantify risk, ToxCast equivalent doses are compared to estimates of exposure rates based on Bayesian inferences drawn from NHANES urinary analyte biomonitoring data. The inclusion

Evolutionary snowdrift game incorporating costly punishment in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Nat W. H.; Xu, C.; Tey, Siew Kian; Yap, Yee Jiun; Hui, P. M.

2013-01-01

The role of punishment and the effects of a structured population in promoting cooperation are important issues. Within a recent model of snowdrift game (SG) incorporating a costly punishing strategy (P), we study the effects of a population connected through a square lattice. The punishers, who carry basically a cooperative (C) character, are willing to pay a cost α so as to punish a non-cooperative (D) opponent by β. Depending on α, β, the cost-to-benefit ratio r in SG, and the initial conditions, the system evolves into different phases that could be homogeneous or inhomogeneous. The spatial structure imposes geometrical constraint on how one agent is affected by neighboring agents. Results of extensive numerical simulations, both for the steady state and the dynamics, are presented. Possible phases are identified and discussed, and isolated phases in the r-β space are identified as special local structures of strategies that are stable due to the lattice structure. In contrast to a well-mixed population where punishers are suppressed due to the cost of punishment, the altruistic punishing strategy can flourish and prevail for appropriate values of the parameters, implying an enhancement in cooperation by imposing punishments in a structured population. The system could evolve to a phase corresponding to the coexistence of C, D, and P strategies at some particular payoff parameters, and such a phase is absent in a well-mixed population. The pair approximation, a commonly used analytic approach, is extended from a two-strategy system to a three-strategy system. We show that the pair approximation can, at best, capture the numerical results only qualitatively. Due to the improper way of including spatial correlation imposed by the lattice structure, the approximation does not give the frequencies of C, D, and P accurately and fails to give the homogeneous AllD and AllP phases.

Unexpectedly Low Rangewide Population Genetic Structure of the Imperiled Eastern Box Turtle Terrapene c. carolina

PubMed Central

Kimble, Steven J. A.; Rhodes Jr., O. E.; Williams, Rod N.

2014-01-01

Rangewide studies of genetic parameters can elucidate patterns and processes that operate only over large geographic scales. Herein, we present a rangewide population genetic assessment of the eastern box turtle Terrapene c. carolina, a species that is in steep decline across its range. To inform conservation planning for this species, we address the hypothesis that disruptions to demographic and movement parameters associated with the decline of the eastern box turtle has resulted in distinctive genetic signatures in the form of low genetic diversity, high population structuring, and decreased gene flow. We used microsatellite genotype data from (n = 799) individuals from across the species range to perform two Bayesian population assignment approaches, two methods for comparing historical and contemporary migration among populations, an evaluation of isolation by distance, and a method for detecting barriers to gene flow. Both Bayesian methods of population assignment indicated that there are two populations rangewide, both of which have maintained high levels of genetic diversity (HO = 0.756). Evidence of isolation by distance was detected in this species at a spatial scale of 300 – 500 km, and the Appalachian Mountains were identified as the primary barrier to gene flow across the species range. We also found evidence for historical but not contemporary migration between populations. Our prediction of many, highly structured populations across the range was not supported. This may point to cryptic contemporary gene flow, which might in turn be explained by the presence of rare transients in populations. However these data may be influenced by historical signatures of genetic connectivity because individuals of this species can be long-lived. PMID:24647580

Genotyping by sequencing resolves shallow population structure to inform conservation of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha)

PubMed Central

Larson, Wesley A; Seeb, Lisa W; Everett, Meredith V; Waples, Ryan K; Templin, William D; Seeb, James E

2014-01-01

Recent advances in population genomics have made it possible to detect previously unidentified structure, obtain more accurate estimates of demographic parameters, and explore adaptive divergence, potentially revolutionizing the way genetic data are used to manage wild populations. Here, we identified 10 944 single-nucleotide polymorphisms using restriction-site-associated DNA (RAD) sequencing to explore population structure, demography, and adaptive divergence in five populations of Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) from western Alaska. Patterns of population structure were similar to those of past studies, but our ability to assign individuals back to their region of origin was greatly improved (>90% accuracy for all populations). We also calculated effective size with and without removing physically linked loci identified from a linkage map, a novel method for nonmodel organisms. Estimates of effective size were generally above 1000 and were biased downward when physically linked loci were not removed. Outlier tests based on genetic differentiation identified 733 loci and three genomic regions under putative selection. These markers and genomic regions are excellent candidates for future research and can be used to create high-resolution panels for genetic monitoring and population assignment. This work demonstrates the utility of genomic data to inform conservation in highly exploited species with shallow population structure. PMID:24665338

Earliest evidence for the structure of Homo sapiens populations in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scerri, Eleanor M. L.; Drake, Nick A.; Jennings, Richard; Groucutt, Huw S.

2014-10-01

Understanding the structure and variation of Homo sapiens populations in Africa is critical for interpreting multiproxy evidence of their subsequent dispersals into Eurasia. However, there is no consensus on early H. sapiens demographic structure, or its effects on intra-African dispersals. Here, we show how a patchwork of ecological corridors and bottlenecks triggered a successive budding of populations across the Sahara. Using a temporally and spatially explicit palaeoenvironmental model, we found that the Sahara was not uniformly ameliorated between ∼130 and 75 thousand years ago (ka), as has been stated. Model integration with multivariate analyses of corresponding stone tools then revealed several spatially defined technological clusters which correlated with distinct palaeobiomes. Similarities between technological clusters were such that they decreased with distance except where connected by palaeohydrological networks. These results indicate that populations at the Eurasian gateway were strongly structured, which has implications for refining the demographic parameters of dispersals out of Africa.

Likelihood analysis of spatial capture-recapture models for stratified or class structured populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Sutherland, Christopher S.; Fuller, Angela K.; Sun, Catherine C.

2015-01-01

We develop a likelihood analysis framework for fitting spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models to data collected on class structured or stratified populations. Our interest is motivated by the necessity of accommodating the problem of missing observations of individual class membership. This is particularly problematic in SCR data arising from DNA analysis of scat, hair or other material, which frequently yields individual identity but fails to identify the sex. Moreover, this can represent a large fraction of the data and, given the typically small sample sizes of many capture-recapture studies based on DNA information, utilization of the data with missing sex information is necessary. We develop the class structured likelihood for the case of missing covariate values, and then we address the scaling of the likelihood so that models with and without class structured parameters can be formally compared regardless of missing values. We apply our class structured model to black bear data collected in New York in which sex could be determined for only 62 of 169 uniquely identified individuals. The models containing sex-specificity of both the intercept of the SCR encounter probability model and the distance coefficient, and including a behavioral response are strongly favored by log-likelihood. Estimated population sex ratio is strongly influenced by sex structure in model parameters illustrating the importance of rigorous modeling of sex differences in capture-recapture models.

The structured ancestral selection graph and the many-demes limit.

PubMed

Slade, Paul F; Wakeley, John

2005-02-01

We show that the unstructured ancestral selection graph applies to part of the history of a sample from a population structured by restricted migration among subpopulations, or demes. The result holds in the limit as the number of demes tends to infinity with proportionately weak selection, and we have also made the assumptions of island-type migration and that demes are equivalent in size. After an instantaneous sample-size adjustment, this structured ancestral selection graph converges to an unstructured ancestral selection graph with a mutation parameter that depends inversely on the migration rate. In contrast, the selection parameter for the population is independent of the migration rate and is identical to the selection parameter in an unstructured population. We show analytically that estimators of the migration rate, based on pairwise sequence differences, derived under the assumption of neutrality should perform equally well in the presence of weak selection. We also modify an algorithm for simulating genealogies conditional on the frequencies of two selected alleles in a sample. This permits efficient simulation of stronger selection than was previously possible. Using this new algorithm, we simulate gene genealogies under the many-demes ancestral selection graph and identify some situations in which migration has a strong effect on the time to the most recent common ancestor of the sample. We find that a similar effect also increases the sensitivity of the genealogy to selection.

Demography of the Pacific walrus (Odobenus rosmarus divergens): 1974-2006

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taylor, Rebecca L.; Udevitz, Mark S.

2015-01-01

Global climate change may fundamentally alter population dynamics of many species for which baseline population parameter estimates are imprecise or lacking. Historically, the Pacific walrus is thought to have been limited by harvest, but it may become limited by global warming-induced reductions in sea ice. Loss of sea ice, on which walruses rest between foraging bouts, may reduce access to food, thus lowering vital rates. Rigorous walrus survival rate estimates do not exist, and other population parameter estimates are out of date or have well-documented bias and imprecision. To provide useful population parameter estimates we developed a Bayesian, hidden process demographic model of walrus population dynamics from 1974 through 2006 that combined annual age-specific harvest estimates with five population size estimates, six standing age structure estimates, and two reproductive rate estimates. Median density independent natural survival was high for juveniles (0.97) and adults (0.99), and annual density dependent vital rates rose from 0.06 to 0.11 for reproduction, 0.31 to 0.59 for survival of neonatal calves, and 0.39 to 0.85 for survival of older calves, concomitant with a population decline. This integrated population model provides a baseline for estimating changing population dynamics resulting from changing harvests or sea ice.

Developing population models with data from marked individuals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hae Yeong Ryu,; Kevin T. Shoemaker,; Eva Kneip,; Anna Pidgeon,; Patricia Heglund,; Brooke Bateman,; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Reşit Akçakaya,

2016-01-01

Population viability analysis (PVA) is a powerful tool for biodiversity assessments, but its use has been limited because of the requirements for fully specified population models such as demographic structure, density-dependence, environmental stochasticity, and specification of uncertainties. Developing a fully specified population model from commonly available data sources – notably, mark–recapture studies – remains complicated due to lack of practical methods for estimating fecundity, true survival (as opposed to apparent survival), natural temporal variability in both survival and fecundity, density-dependence in the demographic parameters, and uncertainty in model parameters. We present a general method that estimates all the key parameters required to specify a stochastic, matrix-based population model, constructed using a long-term mark–recapture dataset. Unlike standard mark–recapture analyses, our approach provides estimates of true survival rates and fecundities, their respective natural temporal variabilities, and density-dependence functions, making it possible to construct a population model for long-term projection of population dynamics. Furthermore, our method includes a formal quantification of parameter uncertainty for global (multivariate) sensitivity analysis. We apply this approach to 9 bird species and demonstrate the feasibility of using data from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship (MAPS) program. Bias-correction factors for raw estimates of survival and fecundity derived from mark–recapture data (apparent survival and juvenile:adult ratio, respectively) were non-negligible, and corrected parameters were generally more biologically reasonable than their uncorrected counterparts. Our method allows the development of fully specified stochastic population models using a single, widely available data source, substantially reducing the barriers that have until now limited the widespread application of PVA. This method is expected to greatly enhance our understanding of the processes underlying population dynamics and our ability to analyze viability and project trends for species of conservation concern.

A unified genetic association test robust to latent population structure for a count phenotype.

PubMed

Song, Minsun

2018-06-04

Confounding caused by latent population structure in genome-wide association studies has been a big concern despite the success of genome-wide association studies at identifying genetic variants associated with complex diseases. In particular, because of the growing interest in association mapping using count phenotype data, it would be interesting to develop a testing framework for genetic associations that is immune to population structure when phenotype data consist of count measurements. Here, I propose a solution for testing associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms and a count phenotype in the presence of an arbitrary population structure. I consider a classical range of models for count phenotype data. Under these models, a unified test for genetic associations that protects against confounding was derived. An algorithm was developed to efficiently estimate the parameters that are required to fit the proposed model. I illustrate the proposed approach using simulation studies and an empirical study. Both simulated and real-data examples suggest that the proposed method successfully corrects population structure. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparing Latent Structures of the Grade of Membership, Rasch, and Latent Class Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erosheva, Elena A.

2005-01-01

This paper focuses on model interpretation issues and employs a geometric approach to compare the potential value of using the Grade of Membership (GoM) model in representing population heterogeneity. We consider population heterogeneity manifolds generated by letting subject specific parameters vary over their natural range, while keeping other…

Krill population dynamics in the Scotia Sea: variability in growth and mortality within a single population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, K.; Murphy, E. J.; Loeb, V.; Hewitt, R. P.

2002-07-01

Understanding the demographics of Antarctic krill over large scales may be complicated by regional differences in the processes that govern population structure. The influence of regional differences in growth and mortality on population size structure was examined using data on the length-frequency distribution of krill in the Scotia Sea using samples from the South Shetland Islands and South Georgia collected annually from 1991 to 2000. A correction function, which took account of the higher growth rate at South Georgia, produced a consistent similarity in the position of the modal size classes that was not present in the raw data. Optimising the mortality rate, to minimise the differences in the growth corrected length-frequency distribution, suggested a higher mortality rate at South Georgia that the South Shetlands. The intra-specific variations in growth and mortality rates are consistent with published values and with other Euphausiids species. Having accounted for the demographic plasticity, it is apparent that strong recruitment of the smallest size class of krill is represented in both populations simultaneously. It appears that first-year krill are advected into different regions of the Scotia Sea where the resultant population size structure is determined by regional differences in growth and mortality. The majority of the commercial harvest of krill in the Antarctic occurs in a relatively small number of regional fisheries within the Scotia Sea and is managed using population models based on a single set of demographic parameters. Where substantial differences in these parameters exist between fishing areas, the calculation of catch limits should take these differences into account.

A Comparison of Normal and Elliptical Estimation Methods in Structural Equation Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schumacker, Randall E.; Cheevatanarak, Suchittra

Monte Carlo simulation compared chi-square statistics, parameter estimates, and root mean square error of approximation values using normal and elliptical estimation methods. Three research conditions were imposed on the simulated data: sample size, population contamination percent, and kurtosis. A Bentler-Weeks structural model established the…

Genetic structure and forensic parameters of 38 Indels for human identification purposes in eight Mexican populations.

PubMed

Martínez-Cortés, G; Gusmão, L; Pereira, R; Salcido, V H; Favela-Mendoza, A F; Muñoz-Valle, J F; Inclán-Sánchez, A; López-Hernández, L B; Rangel-Villalobos, H

2015-07-01

Insertion-deletions for human identification purposes (HID-Indels) offer advantages to solve particular forensic situations and complex paternity cases. In Mexico, admixed population known as Mestizos is the largest (∼90%), plus a number of Amerindian groups (∼10%), which have not been studied with HID-Indels. For this reason, allele frequencies and forensic parameters for 38 HID-Indels were estimated in 531 unrelated individuals from one Amerindian (Purépecha) and seven Mestizo populations from different regions of the country. Genotype distribution was in agreement with Hardy-Weinberg expectations in almost all loci/populations. The linkage disequilibrium (LD) test did not reveal possible associations between loci pairs in all eight Mexican populations. The combined power of discrimination was high in all populations (PD >99.99999999998%). However, the power of exclusion of the 38 HID-Indel system (PE >99.6863%) was reduced regarding most of autosomal STR kits. The assessment of genetic structure (AMOVA) and relationships between populations (FST) demonstrated significant differences among Mexican populations, mainly of the Purépecha Amerindian group. Among Mexican-Mestizos, three population clusters consistent with geography were defined: (i) North-West region: Chihuahua, Sinaloa, and Jalisco; (ii) Central-Southern region: Mexico City, Veracruz and Yucatan; (iii) South region: Chiapas. In brief, this report validates the inclusion of the 38 HID-Indel system in forensic casework and paternity cases in seven Mexican-Mestizo populations from different regions, and in one Mexican Amerindian group. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study on micro-structural and optical parameters of InxSe1-x thin film

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patel, P. B.; Desai, H. N.; Dhimmar, J. M.; Modi, B. P.

2018-04-01

Thin film of Indium Selenide (InSe) has been deposited by thermal evaporation technique onto pre cleaned glass substrate under high vacuum condition. The micro-structural and optical properties of InxSe1-x (x = 0.6, 1-x = 0.4) thin film have been characterized by X-ray diffractrometer (XRD) and UV-Visible spectrophotometer. The XRD spectra showed that InSe thin film has single phase hexagonal structure with preferred orientation along (1 1 0) direction. The micro-structural parameters (crystallite size, lattice strain, dislocation density, domain population) for InSe thin film have been calculated using XRD spectra. The optical parameters (absorption, transmittance, reflectance, energy band gap, Urbach energy) of InSe thin film have been evaluated from absorption spectra. The direct energy band gap and Urbach energy of InSe thin film is found to be 1.90 eV and 235 meV respectively.

Density-dependent home-range size revealed by spatially explicit capture–recapture

USGS Publications Warehouse

Efford, M.G.; Dawson, Deanna K.; Jhala, Y.V.; Qureshi, Q.

2016-01-01

The size of animal home ranges often varies inversely with population density among populations of a species. This fact has implications for population monitoring using spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) models, in which both the scale of home-range movements σ and population density D usually appear as parameters, and both may vary among populations. It will often be appropriate to model a structural relationship between population-specific values of these parameters, rather than to assume independence. We suggest re-parameterizing the SECR model using kp = σp √Dp, where kp relates to the degree of overlap between home ranges and the subscript p distinguishes populations. We observe that kp is often nearly constant for populations spanning a range of densities. This justifies fitting a model in which the separate kp are replaced by the single parameter k and σp is a density-dependent derived parameter. Continuous density-dependent spatial variation in σ may also be modelled, using a scaled non-Euclidean distance between detectors and the locations of animals. We illustrate these methods with data from automatic photography of tigers (Panthera tigris) across India, in which the variation is among populations, from mist-netting of ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapilla) in Maryland, USA, in which the variation is within a single population over time, and from live-trapping of brushtail possums (Trichosurus vulpecula) in New Zealand, modelling spatial variation within one population. Possible applications and limitations of the methods are discussed. A model in which kp is constant, while density varies, provides a parsimonious null model for SECR. The parameter k of the null model is a concise summary of the empirical relationship between home-range size and density that is useful in comparative studies. We expect deviations from this model, particularly the dependence of kp on covariates, to be biologically interesting.

Prediction of flunixin tissue residue concentrations in livers from diseased cattle.

PubMed

Wu, H; Baynes, R E; Tell, L A; Riviere, J E

2013-12-01

Flunixin, a widely used non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug, was a leading cause of violative residues in cattle. The objective of this analysis was to explore how the changes in pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters that may be associated with diseased animals affect the predicted liver residue of flunixin in cattle. Monte Carlo simulations for liver residues of flunixin were performed using the PK model structure and relevant PK parameter estimates from a previously published population PK model for flunixin in cattle. The magnitude of a change in the PK parameter value that resulted in a violative residue issue in more than one percent of a cattle population was compared. In this regard, elimination clearance and volume of distribution affected withdrawal times. Pathophysiological factors that can change these parameters may contribute to the occurrence of violative residues of flunixin.

On the Reproduction Number of a Gut Microbiota Model.

PubMed

Barril, Carles; Calsina, Àngel; Ripoll, Jordi

2017-11-01

A spatially structured linear model of the growth of intestinal bacteria is analysed from two generational viewpoints. Firstly, the basic reproduction number associated with the bacterial population, i.e. the expected number of daughter cells per bacterium, is given explicitly in terms of biological parameters. Secondly, an alternative quantity is introduced based on the number of bacteria produced within the intestine by one bacterium originally in the external media. The latter depends on the parameters in a simpler way and provides more biological insight than the standard reproduction number, allowing the design of experimental procedures. Both quantities coincide and are equal to one at the extinction threshold, below which the bacterial population becomes extinct. Optimal values of both reproduction numbers are derived assuming parameter trade-offs.

MODELING PHYSICAL HABITAT PARAMETERS

EPA Science Inventory

Salmonid populations can be affected by alterations in stream physical habitat. Fish productivity is determined by the stream's physical habitat structure ( channel form, substrate distribution, riparian vegetation), water quality, flow regime and inputs from the watershed (sedim...

Opinion formation and distribution in a bounded-confidence model on various networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meng, X. Flora; Van Gorder, Robert A.; Porter, Mason A.

2018-02-01

In the social, behavioral, and economic sciences, it is important to predict which individual opinions eventually dominate in a large population, whether there will be a consensus, and how long it takes for a consensus to form. Such ideas have been studied heavily both in physics and in other disciplines, and the answers depend strongly both on how one models opinions and on the network structure on which opinions evolve. One model that was created to study consensus formation quantitatively is the Deffuant model, in which the opinion distribution of a population evolves via sequential random pairwise encounters. To consider heterogeneity of interactions in a population along with social influence, we study the Deffuant model on various network structures (deterministic synthetic networks, random synthetic networks, and social networks constructed from Facebook data). We numerically simulate the Deffuant model and conduct regression analyses to investigate the dependence of the time to reach steady states on various model parameters, including a confidence bound for opinion updates, the number of participating entities, and their willingness to compromise. We find that network structure and parameter values both have important effects on the convergence time and the number of steady-state opinion groups. For some network architectures, we observe that the relationship between the convergence time and model parameters undergoes a transition at a critical value of the confidence bound. For some networks, the steady-state opinion distribution also changes from consensus to multiple opinion groups at this critical value.

Genetic Diversity and Population Parameters of Sea Otters, Enhydra lutris, before Fur Trade Extirpation from 1741–1911

PubMed Central

Larson, Shawn; Jameson, Ron; Etnier, Michael; Jones, Terry; Hall, Roberta

2012-01-01

All existing sea otter, Enhydra lutris, populations have suffered at least one historic population bottleneck stemming from the fur trade extirpations of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. We examined genetic variation, gene flow, and population structure at five microsatellite loci in samples from five pre-fur trade populations throughout the sea otter's historical range: California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska, and Russia. We then compared those values to genetic diversity and population structure found within five modern sea otter populations throughout their current range: California, Prince William Sound, Amchitka Island, Southeast Alaska and Washington. We found twice the genetic diversity in the pre-fur trade populations when compared to modern sea otters, a level of diversity that was similar to levels that are found in other mammal populations that have not experienced population bottlenecks. Even with the significant loss in genetic diversity modern sea otters have retained historical structure. There was greater gene flow before extirpation than that found among modern sea otter populations but the difference was not statistically significant. The most dramatic effect of pre fur trade population extirpation was the loss of genetic diversity. For long term conservation of these populations increasing gene flow and the maintenance of remnant genetic diversity should be encouraged. PMID:22403635

Genomic diversity is similar between Atlantic Forest restorations and natural remnants for the native tree Casearia sylvestris Sw.

PubMed

Gomes Viana, João Paulo; Bohrer Monteiro Siqueira, Marcos Vinícius; Araujo, Fabiano Lucas; Grando, Carolina; Sanae Sujii, Patricia; Silvestre, Ellida de Aguiar; Novello, Mariana; Pinheiro, José Baldin; Cavallari, Marcelo Mattos; Brancalion, Pedro H S; Rodrigues, Ricardo Ribeiro; Pereira de Souza, Anete; Catchen, Julian; Zucchi, Maria I

2018-01-01

The primary focus of tropical forest restoration has been the recovery of forest structure and tree taxonomic diversity, with limited attention given to genetic conservation. Populations reintroduced through restoration plantings may have low genetic diversity and be genetically structured due to founder effects and genetic drift, which limit the potential of restoration to recover ecologically resilient plant communities. Here, we studied the genetic diversity, genetic structure and differentiation using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) markers between restored and natural populations of the native tree Casearia sylvestris in the Atlantic Forest of Brazil. We sampled leaves from approximately 24 adult individuals in each of the study sites: two restoration plantations (27 and 62 years old) and two forest remnants. We prepared and sequenced a genotyping-by-sequencing library, SNP markers were identified de novo using Stacks pipeline, and genetic parameters and structure analyses were then estimated for populations. The sequencing step was successful for 80 sampled individuals. Neutral genetic diversity was similar among restored and natural populations (AR = 1.72 ± 0.005; HO = 0.135 ± 0.005; HE = 0.167 ± 0.005; FIS = 0.16 ± 0.022), which were not genetically structured by population subdivision. In spite of this absence of genetic structure by population we found genetic structure within populations but even so there is not spatial genetic structure in any population studied. Less than 1% of the neutral alleles were exclusive to a population. In general, contrary to our expectations, restoration plantations were then effective for conserving tree genetic diversity in human-modified tropical landscapes. Furthermore, we demonstrate that genotyping-by-sequencing can be a useful tool in restoration genetics.

Growth parameters and density variation of a queen conch, Strombus gigas (Neotaenioglossa: Strombidae), population from Xel-Ha park, a marine protected area.

PubMed

Baqueiro Cárdenas, Erick; Aldana Aranda, Dalila

2014-03-01

The queen conch, Strombus gigas, is a gastropod of commercial importance in the Caribbean. Population studies are based on size frequency analysis, using either length or weight parameters for the whole live organism. This contribution used mark-recapture data to estimate the Von Bertalanffy equation parameters and population number variation within a non harvest population from a protected area, to clarify the biometric parameters that better suit for the whole population, or for the juvenile and adult fractions. Conchs from Xel-Ha Park were monthly sampled from November 2001 to August 2005. Every conch found was measured and marked with a numbered tag that identified month and locality; and monthly abundance was estimated with Jolly's method. Length, lip thickness and weight increments were used to estimate the Von Bertalanffy growth equation parameters with Appeldoorn's subroutine of FISAT program. The population number varied through the study, with a minimum of 49 in April 2003 and maximum of 9 848 during June 2005. Conchs make only temporary use of Xel-Ha cove. Shell length gave the best fit for the juvenile fraction: L(infinity)=251, K=0.3, C=0.8 Wp=0.3; and lip thickness for adults: L(infinity)=47.78, K=0.17, C=0.1, Wp=0.86, while, the whole population was better represented by weight: L(infinity)=3850, K=0.36, C=0.8, Wp=0.3. A maximum age of 19 years was estimated from the population. Natural mortality was 0.49/year for juveniles and 0.29/year for adults. There were two pulses of recruitment: fall-winter and summer. It is concluded that population studies from length frequency data, should be analyzed independently in two groups, shell for the juvenile fraction and lip thickness for the adult fraction, or if it is not possible to analyze the population fractions separately, weight should be used to avoid miss calculation of the age structure.

How Ebola impacts social dynamics in gorillas: a multistate modelling approach.

PubMed

Genton, Céline; Pierre, Amandine; Cristescu, Romane; Lévréro, Florence; Gatti, Sylvain; Pierre, Jean-Sébastien; Ménard, Nelly; Le Gouar, Pascaline

2015-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases can induce rapid changes in population dynamics and threaten population persistence. In socially structured populations, the transfers of individuals between social units, for example, from breeding groups to non-breeding groups, shape population dynamics. We suggest that diseases may affect these crucial transfers. We aimed to determine how disturbance by an emerging disease affects demographic rates of gorillas, especially transfer rates within populations and immigration rates into populations. We compared social dynamics and key demographic parameters in a gorilla population affected by Ebola using a long-term observation data set including pre-, during and post-outbreak periods. We also studied a population of undetermined epidemiological status in order to assess whether this population was affected by the disease. We developed a multistate model that can handle transition between social units while optimizing the number of states. During the Ebola outbreak, social dynamics displayed increased transfers from a breeding to a non-breeding status for both males and females. Six years after the outbreak, demographic and most of social dynamics parameters had returned to their initial rates, suggesting a certain resilience in the response to disruption. The formation of breeding groups increased just after Ebola, indicating that environmental conditions were still attractive. However, population recovery was likely delayed because compensatory immigration was probably impeded by the potential impact of Ebola in the surrounding areas. The population of undetermined epidemiological status behaved similarly to the other population before Ebola. Our results highlight the need to integrate social dynamics in host-population demographic models to better understand the role of social structure in the sensitivity and the response to disease disturbances. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Size and age structure of anadromous and landlocked populations of Rainbow Smelt

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Malley, Andrew; Enterline, Claire; Zydlewski, Joseph D.

2017-01-01

Rainbow Smelt Osmerus mordax are widely distributed in both anadromous and landlocked populations throughout northeastern North America; abundance, size at age, and maximum size vary widely among populations and life histories. In the present study, size at age, von Bertalanffy growth parameters, population age distributions, and precision and bias in age assessment based on scales and sectioned otoliths were compared between ecotypes and among populations of Rainbow Smelt. To compare the ecotypes, we collected spawning adults from four anadromous and three landlocked populations in Maine during spring 2014. A significant bias was identified in only one of four scale comparisons but in four of seven otolith comparisons; however, a comparable level of precision was indicated. Anadromous populations had larger and more variable size at age and von Bertalanffy growth parameters than landlocked fish. Populations were composed of ages 1–4; six populations were dominated by age-2 or age-3 individuals, and one population was dominated by age-1 fish. These data suggest the presence of considerable plasticity among populations. A latitudinal gradient was observed in the anadromous Rainbow Smelt, which may show signs of population stress at the southern extent of their distribution.

A robust measure of HIV-1 population turnover within chronically infected individuals.

PubMed

Achaz, G; Palmer, S; Kearney, M; Maldarelli, F; Mellors, J W; Coffin, J M; Wakeley, J

2004-10-01

A simple nonparameteric test for population structure was applied to temporally spaced samples of HIV-1 sequences from the gag-pol region within two chronically infected individuals. The results show that temporal structure can be detected for samples separated by about 22 months or more. The performance of the method, which was originally proposed to detect geographic structure, was tested for temporally spaced samples using neutral coalescent simulations. Simulations showed that the method is robust to variation in samples sizes and mutation rates, to the presence/absence of recombination, and that the power to detect temporal structure is high. By comparing levels of temporal structure in simulations to the levels observed in real data, we estimate the effective intra-individual population size of HIV-1 to be between 10(3) and 10(4) viruses, which is in agreement with some previous estimates. Using this estimate and a simple measure of sequence diversity, we estimate an effective neutral mutation rate of about 5 x 10(-6) per site per generation in the gag-pol region. The definition and interpretation of estimates of such "effective" population parameters are discussed.

[Analysis of Camellia rosthorniana populations fecundity].

PubMed

Cao, Guoxing; Zhong, Zhangcheng; Xie, Deti; Liu, Yun

2004-03-01

With the method of space substituting time, the structure of Camellia rosthorniana populations in three forest communities, i.e., Jiant bamboo forest, coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest, and evergreen broad-leaved forest in Mt. Jinyun was investigated, and based on static life-tables, the fecundity tables and reproductive value tables of C. rosthorniana populations were constructed. Each reproductive parameter and its relation to bionomic strategies of C. rosthorniana populations were also analyzed. The results indicated that in evergreen broad-leaved forest, C. rosthorniana population had the longest life span and the greatest fitness. The stage of maximum reproductive value increased with increasing stability of the community. The sum of each population's reproductive value, residual reproductive value and total reproductive value for the whole life-history of C. rosthorniana also increased with increasing maturity of the community, showing their inherent relationships with reproductive fitness. As regards to bionomic strategy, C. rosthorniana showed mainly the characteristics of a k-strategies, but in less stable community, the reproductive parameters were greatly changed, showing some characteristics of a r-strategies.

Parameter estimation techniques based on optimizing goodness-of-fit statistics for structural reliability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Starlinger, Alois; Duffy, Stephen F.; Palko, Joseph L.

1993-01-01

New methods are presented that utilize the optimization of goodness-of-fit statistics in order to estimate Weibull parameters from failure data. It is assumed that the underlying population is characterized by a three-parameter Weibull distribution. Goodness-of-fit tests are based on the empirical distribution function (EDF). The EDF is a step function, calculated using failure data, and represents an approximation of the cumulative distribution function for the underlying population. Statistics (such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic and the Anderson-Darling statistic) measure the discrepancy between the EDF and the cumulative distribution function (CDF). These statistics are minimized with respect to the three Weibull parameters. Due to nonlinearities encountered in the minimization process, Powell's numerical optimization procedure is applied to obtain the optimum value of the EDF. Numerical examples show the applicability of these new estimation methods. The results are compared to the estimates obtained with Cooper's nonlinear regression algorithm.

Size-density scaling in protists and the links between consumer-resource interaction parameters.

PubMed

DeLong, John P; Vasseur, David A

2012-11-01

Recent work indicates that the interaction between body-size-dependent demographic processes can generate macroecological patterns such as the scaling of population density with body size. In this study, we evaluate this possibility for grazing protists and also test whether demographic parameters in these models are correlated after controlling for body size. We compiled data on the body-size dependence of consumer-resource interactions and population density for heterotrophic protists grazing algae in laboratory studies. We then used nested dynamic models to predict both the height and slope of the scaling relationship between population density and body size for these protists. We also controlled for consumer size and assessed links between model parameters. Finally, we used the models and the parameter estimates to assess the individual- and population-level dependence of resource use on body-size and prey-size selection. The predicted size-density scaling for all models matched closely to the observed scaling, and the simplest model was sufficient to predict the pattern. Variation around the mean size-density scaling relationship may be generated by variation in prey productivity and area of capture, but residuals are relatively insensitive to variation in prey size selection. After controlling for body size, many consumer-resource interaction parameters were correlated, and a positive correlation between residual prey size selection and conversion efficiency neutralizes the apparent fitness advantage of taking large prey. Our results indicate that widespread community-level patterns can be explained with simple population models that apply consistently across a range of sizes. They also indicate that the parameter space governing the dynamics and the steady states in these systems is structured such that some parts of the parameter space are unlikely to represent real systems. Finally, predator-prey size ratios represent a kind of conundrum, because they are widely observed but apparently have little influence on population size and fitness, at least at this level of organization. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

Pseudomonas aeruginosa Population Structure Revisited

PubMed Central

Pirnay, Jean-Paul; Bilocq, Florence; Pot, Bruno; Cornelis, Pierre; Zizi, Martin; Van Eldere, Johan; Deschaght, Pieter; Vaneechoutte, Mario; Jennes, Serge; Pitt, Tyrone; De Vos, Daniel

2009-01-01

At present there are strong indications that Pseudomonas aeruginosa exhibits an epidemic population structure; clinical isolates are indistinguishable from environmental isolates, and they do not exhibit a specific (disease) habitat selection. However, some important issues, such as the worldwide emergence of highly transmissible P. aeruginosa clones among cystic fibrosis (CF) patients and the spread and persistence of multidrug resistant (MDR) strains in hospital wards with high antibiotic pressure, remain contentious. To further investigate the population structure of P. aeruginosa, eight parameters were analyzed and combined for 328 unrelated isolates, collected over the last 125 years from 69 localities in 30 countries on five continents, from diverse clinical (human and animal) and environmental habitats. The analysed parameters were: i) O serotype, ii) Fluorescent Amplified-Fragment Length Polymorphism (FALFP) pattern, nucleotide sequences of outer membrane protein genes, iii) oprI, iv) oprL, v) oprD, vi) pyoverdine receptor gene profile (fpvA type and fpvB prevalence), and prevalence of vii) exoenzyme genes exoS and exoU and viii) group I pilin glycosyltransferase gene tfpO. These traits were combined and analysed using biological data analysis software and visualized in the form of a minimum spanning tree (MST). We revealed a network of relationships between all analyzed parameters and non-congruence between experiments. At the same time we observed several conserved clones, characterized by an almost identical data set. These observations confirm the nonclonal epidemic population structure of P. aeruginosa, a superficially clonal structure with frequent recombinations, in which occasionally highly successful epidemic clones arise. One of these clones is the renown and widespread MDR serotype O12 clone. On the other hand, we found no evidence for a widespread CF transmissible clone. All but one of the 43 analysed CF strains belonged to a ubiquitous P. aeruginosa “core lineage” and typically exhibited the exoS +/exoU − genotype and group B oprL and oprD alleles. This is to our knowledge the first report of an MST analysis conducted on a polyphasic data set. PMID:19936230

Computing the structural influence matrix for biological systems.

PubMed

Giordano, Giulia; Cuba Samaniego, Christian; Franco, Elisa; Blanchini, Franco

2016-06-01

We consider the problem of identifying structural influences of external inputs on steady-state outputs in a biological network model. We speak of a structural influence if, upon a perturbation due to a constant input, the ensuing variation of the steady-state output value has the same sign as the input (positive influence), the opposite sign (negative influence), or is zero (perfect adaptation), for any feasible choice of the model parameters. All these signs and zeros can constitute a structural influence matrix, whose (i, j) entry indicates the sign of steady-state influence of the jth system variable on the ith variable (the output caused by an external persistent input applied to the jth variable). Each entry is structurally determinate if the sign does not depend on the choice of the parameters, but is indeterminate otherwise. In principle, determining the influence matrix requires exhaustive testing of the system steady-state behaviour in the widest range of parameter values. Here we show that, in a broad class of biological networks, the influence matrix can be evaluated with an algorithm that tests the system steady-state behaviour only at a finite number of points. This algorithm also allows us to assess the structural effect of any perturbation, such as variations of relevant parameters. Our method is applied to nontrivial models of biochemical reaction networks and population dynamics drawn from the literature, providing a parameter-free insight into the system dynamics.

Balancing income and cost in red deer management.

PubMed

Skonhoft, Anders; Veiberg, Vebjørn; Gauteplass, Asle; Olaussen, Jon Olaf; Meisingset, Erling L; Mysterud, Atle

2013-01-30

This paper presents a bioeconomic analysis of a red deer population within a Norwegian institutional context. This population is managed by a well-defined manager, typically consisting of many landowners operating in a cooperative manner, with the goal of maximizing the present-value hunting related income while taking browsing and grazing damages into account. The red deer population is structured in five categories of animals (calves, female and male yearlings, adult females and adult males). It is shown that differences in the per-animal meat values and survival rates ('biological discounted' values) are instrumental in determining the optimal harvest composition. Fertility plays no direct role. It is argued that this is a general result working in stage-structured models with harvest values. In the numerical illustration it is shown that the optimal harvest pattern stays quite stable under various parameter changes. It is revealed which parameters and harvest restrictions that is most important. We also show that the current harvest pattern involves too much yearling harvest compared with the economically efficient level. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Data on litter quality of host grass plants with and without fungal endophytes.

PubMed

Gundel, P E; Helander, M; Garibaldi, L A; Vázquez-de-Aldana, B R; Zabalgogeazcoa, I; Saikkonen, K

2016-06-01

Certain Pooideae species form persistent symbiosis with fungal endophytes of Epichloë genus. Although endophytes are known to impact the ecology and evolution of host species, their effects on parameters related with quality of plant biomass has been elusive. This article provides information about parameters related with the quality of plant litter biomass of two important grass species (Schedonorus phoenix and Schedonorus pratensis) affected by the symbiosis with fungal endophytes (Epichloë coenophiala and Epichloë uncinata, respectively). Four population origins of S. phoenix and one of S. pratensis were included. Mineral, biochemical and structural parameters were obtained from three samples per factors combination [species (and population origin)×endophyte]. This data can be potentially used in other studies which, by means of 'data reanalyzing' or meta-analysis, attempt to find generalizations about endophyte effects on host plant litter biomass. The present data is associated with the research article "Role of foliar fungal endophytes on litter decomposition among species and population origins" (Gundel et al., In preparation) [1].

Plasmodium vivax Diversity and Population Structure across Four Continents

PubMed Central

Koepfli, Cristian; Rodrigues, Priscila T.; Antao, Tiago; Orjuela-Sánchez, Pamela; Van den Eede, Peter; Gamboa, Dionicia; van Hong, Nguyen; Bendezu, Jorge; Erhart, Annette; Barnadas, Céline; Ratsimbasoa, Arsène; Menard, Didier; Severini, Carlo; Menegon, Michela; Nour, Bakri Y. M.; Karunaweera, Nadira; Mueller, Ivo; Ferreira, Marcelo U.; Felger, Ingrid

2015-01-01

Plasmodium vivax is the geographically most widespread human malaria parasite. To analyze patterns of microsatellite diversity and population structure across countries of different transmission intensity, genotyping data from 11 microsatellite markers was either generated or compiled from 841 isolates from four continents collected in 1999–2008. Diversity was highest in South-East Asia (mean allelic richness 10.0–12.8), intermediate in the South Pacific (8.1–9.9) Madagascar and Sudan (7.9–8.4), and lowest in South America and Central Asia (5.5–7.2). A reduced panel of only 3 markers was sufficient to identify approx. 90% of all haplotypes in South Pacific, African and SE-Asian populations, but only 60–80% in Latin American populations, suggesting that typing of 2–6 markers, depending on the level of endemicity, is sufficient for epidemiological studies. Clustering analysis showed distinct clusters in Peru and Brazil, but little sub-structuring was observed within Africa, SE-Asia or the South Pacific. Isolates from Uzbekistan were exceptional, as a near-clonal parasite population was observed that was clearly separated from all other populations (F ST>0.2). Outside Central Asia F ST values were highest (0.11–0.16) between South American and all other populations, and lowest (0.04–0.07) between populations from South-East Asia and the South Pacific. These comparisons between P. vivax populations from four continents indicated that not only transmission intensity, but also geographical isolation affect diversity and population structure. However, the high effective population size results in slow changes of these parameters. This persistency must be taken into account when assessing the impact of control programs on the genetic structure of parasite populations. PMID:26125189

Plasmodium vivax Diversity and Population Structure across Four Continents.

PubMed

Koepfli, Cristian; Rodrigues, Priscila T; Antao, Tiago; Orjuela-Sánchez, Pamela; Van den Eede, Peter; Gamboa, Dionicia; van Hong, Nguyen; Bendezu, Jorge; Erhart, Annette; Barnadas, Céline; Ratsimbasoa, Arsène; Menard, Didier; Severini, Carlo; Menegon, Michela; Nour, Bakri Y M; Karunaweera, Nadira; Mueller, Ivo; Ferreira, Marcelo U; Felger, Ingrid

2015-01-01

Plasmodium vivax is the geographically most widespread human malaria parasite. To analyze patterns of microsatellite diversity and population structure across countries of different transmission intensity, genotyping data from 11 microsatellite markers was either generated or compiled from 841 isolates from four continents collected in 1999-2008. Diversity was highest in South-East Asia (mean allelic richness 10.0-12.8), intermediate in the South Pacific (8.1-9.9) Madagascar and Sudan (7.9-8.4), and lowest in South America and Central Asia (5.5-7.2). A reduced panel of only 3 markers was sufficient to identify approx. 90% of all haplotypes in South Pacific, African and SE-Asian populations, but only 60-80% in Latin American populations, suggesting that typing of 2-6 markers, depending on the level of endemicity, is sufficient for epidemiological studies. Clustering analysis showed distinct clusters in Peru and Brazil, but little sub-structuring was observed within Africa, SE-Asia or the South Pacific. Isolates from Uzbekistan were exceptional, as a near-clonal parasite population was observed that was clearly separated from all other populations (FST>0.2). Outside Central Asia FST values were highest (0.11-0.16) between South American and all other populations, and lowest (0.04-0.07) between populations from South-East Asia and the South Pacific. These comparisons between P. vivax populations from four continents indicated that not only transmission intensity, but also geographical isolation affect diversity and population structure. However, the high effective population size results in slow changes of these parameters. This persistency must be taken into account when assessing the impact of control programs on the genetic structure of parasite populations.

Fine-scale patterns of population stratification confound rare variant association tests.

PubMed

O'Connor, Timothy D; Kiezun, Adam; Bamshad, Michael; Rich, Stephen S; Smith, Joshua D; Turner, Emily; Leal, Suzanne M; Akey, Joshua M

2013-01-01

Advances in next-generation sequencing technology have enabled systematic exploration of the contribution of rare variation to Mendelian and complex diseases. Although it is well known that population stratification can generate spurious associations with common alleles, its impact on rare variant association methods remains poorly understood. Here, we performed exhaustive coalescent simulations with demographic parameters calibrated from exome sequence data to evaluate the performance of nine rare variant association methods in the presence of fine-scale population structure. We find that all methods have an inflated spurious association rate for parameter values that are consistent with levels of differentiation typical of European populations. For example, at a nominal significance level of 5%, some test statistics have a spurious association rate as high as 40%. Finally, we empirically assess the impact of population stratification in a large data set of 4,298 European American exomes. Our results have important implications for the design, analysis, and interpretation of rare variant genome-wide association studies.

Fixation of slightly beneficial mutations: effects of life history.

PubMed

Vindenes, Yngvild; Lee, Aline Magdalena; Engen, Steinar; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2010-04-01

Recent studies of rates of evolution have revealed large systematic differences among organisms with different life histories, both within and among taxa. Here, we consider how life history may affect the rate of evolution via its influence on the fixation probability of slightly beneficial mutations. Our approach is based on diffusion modeling for a finite, stage-structured population with stochastic population dynamics. The results, which are verified by computer simulations, demonstrate that even with complex population structure just two demographic parameters are sufficient to give an accurate approximation of the fixation probability of a slightly beneficial mutation. These are the reproductive value of the stage in which the mutation first occurs and the demographic variance of the population. The demographic variance also determines what influence population size has on the fixation probability. This model represents a substantial generalization of earlier models, covering a large range of life histories.

A modeling framework for integrated harvest and habitat management of North American waterfowl: Case-study of northern pintail metapopulation dynamics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mattsson, Brady J.; Runge, M.C.; Devries, J.H.; Boomer, G.S.; Eadie, J.M.; Haukos, D.A.; Fleskes, J.P.; Koons, D.N.; Thogmartin, W.E.; Clark, R.G.

2012-01-01

We developed and evaluated the performance of a metapopulation model enabling managers to examine, for the first time, the consequences of alternative management strategies involving habitat conditions and hunting on both harvest opportunity and carrying capacity (i.e., equilibrium population size in the absence of harvest) for migratory waterfowl at a continental scale. Our focus is on the northern pintail (Anas acuta; hereafter, pintail), which serves as a useful model species to examine the potential for integrating waterfowl harvest and habitat management in North America. We developed submodel structure capturing important processes for pintail populations during breeding, fall migration, winter, and spring migration while encompassing spatial structure representing three core breeding areas and two core nonbreeding areas. A number of continental-scale predictions from our baseline parameterization (e.g., carrying capacity of 5.5 million, equilibrium population size of 2.9 million and harvest rate of 12% at maximum sustained yield [MSY]) were within 10% of those from the pintail harvest strategy under current use by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. To begin investigating the interaction of harvest and habitat management, we examined equilibrium population conditions for pintail at the continental scale across a range of harvest rates while perturbing model parameters to represent: (1) a 10% increase in breeding habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population (PR); and (2) a 10% increase in nonbreeding habitat quantity along in the Gulf Coast (GC). Based on our model and analysis, a greater increase in carrying capacity and sustainable harvest was seen when increasing a proxy for habitat quality in the Prairie Pothole population. This finding and underlying assumptions must be critically evaluated, however, before specific management recommendations can be made. To make such recommendations, we require (1) extended, refined submodels with additional parameters linking influences of habitat management and environmental conditions to key life-history parameters; (2) a formal sensitivity analysis of the revised model; (3) an integrated population model that incorporates empirical data for estimating key vital rates; and (4) cost estimates for changing these additional parameters through habitat management efforts. We foresee great utility in using an integrated modeling approach to predict habitat and harvest management influences on continental-scale population responses while explicitly considering putative effects of climate change. Such a model could be readily adapted for management of many habitat-limited species.

Evolutionary mixed games in structured populations: Cooperation and the benefits of heterogeneity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaral, Marco A.; Wardil, Lucas; Perc, Matjaž; da Silva, Jafferson K. L.

2016-04-01

Evolutionary games on networks traditionally involve the same game at each interaction. Here we depart from this assumption by considering mixed games, where the game played at each interaction is drawn uniformly at random from a set of two different games. While in well-mixed populations the random mixture of the two games is always equivalent to the average single game, in structured populations this is not always the case. We show that the outcome is, in fact, strongly dependent on the distance of separation of the two games in the parameter space. Effectively, this distance introduces payoff heterogeneity, and the average game is returned only if the heterogeneity is small. For higher levels of heterogeneity the distance to the average game grows, which often involves the promotion of cooperation. The presented results support preceding research that highlights the favorable role of heterogeneity regardless of its origin, and they also emphasize the importance of the population structure in amplifying facilitators of cooperation.

Evolutionary mixed games in structured populations: Cooperation and the benefits of heterogeneity.

PubMed

Amaral, Marco A; Wardil, Lucas; Perc, Matjaž; da Silva, Jafferson K L

2016-04-01

Evolutionary games on networks traditionally involve the same game at each interaction. Here we depart from this assumption by considering mixed games, where the game played at each interaction is drawn uniformly at random from a set of two different games. While in well-mixed populations the random mixture of the two games is always equivalent to the average single game, in structured populations this is not always the case. We show that the outcome is, in fact, strongly dependent on the distance of separation of the two games in the parameter space. Effectively, this distance introduces payoff heterogeneity, and the average game is returned only if the heterogeneity is small. For higher levels of heterogeneity the distance to the average game grows, which often involves the promotion of cooperation. The presented results support preceding research that highlights the favorable role of heterogeneity regardless of its origin, and they also emphasize the importance of the population structure in amplifying facilitators of cooperation.

Individual movement behavior, matrix heterogeneity, and the dynamics of spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Revilla, Eloy; Wiegand, Thorsten

2008-12-09

The dynamics of spatially structured populations is characterized by within- and between-patch processes. The available theory describes the latter with simple distance-dependent functions that depend on landscape properties such as interpatch distance or patch size. Despite its potential role, we lack a good mechanistic understanding of how the movement of individuals between patches affects the dynamics of these populations. We used the theoretical framework provided by movement ecology to make a direct representation of the processes determining how individuals connect local populations in a spatially structured population of Iberian lynx. Interpatch processes depended on the heterogeneity of the matrix where patches are embedded and the parameters defining individual movement behavior. They were also very sensitive to the dynamic demographic variables limiting the time moving, the within-patch dynamics of available settlement sites (both spatiotemporally heterogeneous) and the response of individuals to the perceived risk while moving. These context-dependent dynamic factors are an inherent part of the movement process, producing connectivities and dispersal kernels whose variability is affected by other demographic processes. Mechanistic representations of interpatch movements, such as the one provided by the movement-ecology framework, permit the dynamic interaction of birth-death processes and individual movement behavior, thus improving our understanding of stochastic spatially structured populations.

Genetic variation, population structure and linkage disequilibrium in Switchgrass with ISSR, SCoT and EST-SSR markers.

PubMed

Zhang, Yu; Yan, Haidong; Jiang, Xiaomei; Wang, Xiaoli; Huang, Linkai; Xu, Bin; Zhang, Xinquan; Zhang, Lexin

2016-01-01

To evaluate genetic variation, population structure, and the extent of linkage disequilibrium (LD), 134 switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L.) samples were analyzed with 51 markers, including 16 ISSRs, 20 SCoTs, and 15 EST-SSRs. In this study, a high level of genetic variation was observed in the switchgrass samples and they had an average Nei's gene diversity index (H) of 0.311. A total of 793 bands were obtained, of which 708 (89.28 %) were polymorphic. Using a parameter marker index (MI), the efficiency of the three types of markers (ISSR, SCoT, and EST-SSR) in the study were compared and we found that SCoT had a higher marker efficiency than the other two markers. The 134 switchgrass samples could be divided into two sub-populations based on STRUCTURE, UPGMA clustering, and principal coordinate analyses (PCA), and upland and lowland ecotypes could be separated by UPGMA clustering and PCA analyses. Linkage disequilibrium analysis revealed an average r 2 of 0.035 across all 51 markers, indicating a trend of higher LD in sub-population 2 than that in sub-population 1 ( P  < 0.01). The population structure revealed in this study will guide the design of future association studies using these switchgrass samples.

Animal social networks as substrate for cultural behavioural diversity.

PubMed

Whitehead, Hal; Lusseau, David

2012-02-07

We used individual-based stochastic models to examine how social structure influences the diversity of socially learned behaviour within a non-human population. For continuous behavioural variables we modelled three forms of dyadic social learning, averaging the behavioural value of the two individuals, random transfer of information from one individual to the other, and directional transfer from the individual with highest behavioural value to the other. Learning had potential error. We also examined the transfer of categorical behaviour between individuals with random directionality and two forms of error, the adoption of a randomly chosen existing behavioural category or the innovation of a new type of behaviour. In populations without social structuring the diversity of culturally transmitted behaviour increased with learning error and population size. When the populations were structured socially either by making individuals members of permanent social units or by giving them overlapping ranges, behavioural diversity increased with network modularity under all scenarios, although the proportional increase varied considerably between continuous and categorical behaviour, with transmission mechanism, and population size. Although functions of the form e(c)¹(m)⁻(c)² + (c)³(Log(N)) predicted the mean increase in diversity with modularity (m) and population size (N), behavioural diversity could be highly unpredictable both between simulations with the same set of parameters, and within runs. Errors in social learning and social structuring generally promote behavioural diversity. Consequently, social learning may be considered to produce culture in populations whose social structure is sufficiently modular. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of mating system parameters and population structure in Douglas-fir using single-locus and multilocus methods

Treesearch

D. V. Shaw; R. W. Allard

1981-01-01

Two methods of estimating the proportion of self-fertilization as opposed to outcrossing in plant populations are described. The first method makes use of marker loci one at a time; the second method makes use of multiple marker loci simultaneously. Comparisons of the estimates of proportions of selfing and outcrossing obtained using the two methods are shown to yield...

Ecological correlates of population genetic structure: a comparative approach using a vertebrate metacommunity.

PubMed

Manier, Mollie K; Arnold, Stevan J

2006-12-07

Identifying ecological factors associated with population genetic differentiation is important for understanding microevolutionary processes and guiding the management of threatened populations. We identified ecological correlates of several population genetic parameters for three interacting species (two garter snakes and an anuran) that occupy a common landscape. Using multiple regression analysis, we found that species interactions were more important in explaining variation in population genetic parameters than habitat and nearest-neighbour characteristics. Effective population size was best explained by census size, while migration was associated with differences in species abundance. In contrast, genetic distance was poorly explained by the ecological correlates that we tested, but geographical distance was prominent in models for all species. We found substantially different population dynamics for the prey species relative to the two predators, characterized by larger effective sizes, lower gene flow and a state of migration-drift equilibrium. We also identified an escarpment formed by a series of block faults that serves as a barrier to dispersal for the predators. Our results suggest that successful landscape-level management should incorporate genetic and ecological data for all relevant species, because even closely associated species can exhibit very different population genetic dynamics on the same landscape.

Estimating mutation parameters, population history and genealogy simultaneously from temporally spaced sequence data.

PubMed Central

Drummond, Alexei J; Nicholls, Geoff K; Rodrigo, Allen G; Solomon, Wiremu

2002-01-01

Molecular sequences obtained at different sampling times from populations of rapidly evolving pathogens and from ancient subfossil and fossil sources are increasingly available with modern sequencing technology. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical inference approach to the joint estimation of mutation rate and population size that incorporates the uncertainty in the genealogy of such temporally spaced sequences by using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration. The Kingman coalescent model is used to describe the time structure of the ancestral tree. We recover information about the unknown true ancestral coalescent tree, population size, and the overall mutation rate from temporally spaced data, that is, from nucleotide sequences gathered at different times, from different individuals, in an evolving haploid population. We briefly discuss the methodological implications and show what can be inferred, in various practically relevant states of prior knowledge. We develop extensions for exponentially growing population size and joint estimation of substitution model parameters. We illustrate some of the important features of this approach on a genealogy of HIV-1 envelope (env) partial sequences. PMID:12136032

Estimating mutation parameters, population history and genealogy simultaneously from temporally spaced sequence data.

PubMed

Drummond, Alexei J; Nicholls, Geoff K; Rodrigo, Allen G; Solomon, Wiremu

2002-07-01

Molecular sequences obtained at different sampling times from populations of rapidly evolving pathogens and from ancient subfossil and fossil sources are increasingly available with modern sequencing technology. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical inference approach to the joint estimation of mutation rate and population size that incorporates the uncertainty in the genealogy of such temporally spaced sequences by using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) integration. The Kingman coalescent model is used to describe the time structure of the ancestral tree. We recover information about the unknown true ancestral coalescent tree, population size, and the overall mutation rate from temporally spaced data, that is, from nucleotide sequences gathered at different times, from different individuals, in an evolving haploid population. We briefly discuss the methodological implications and show what can be inferred, in various practically relevant states of prior knowledge. We develop extensions for exponentially growing population size and joint estimation of substitution model parameters. We illustrate some of the important features of this approach on a genealogy of HIV-1 envelope (env) partial sequences.

The influence of age and gender on skin-associated microbial communities in urban and rural human populations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ying, Shi; Zeng, Dan -Ning; Chi, Liang

Differences in the bacterial community structure associated with 7 skin sites in 71 healthy people over five days showed significant correlations with age, gender, physical skin parameters, and whether participants lived in urban or rural locations in the same city. While body site explained the majority of the variance in bacterial community structure, the composition of the skin-associated bacterial communities were predominantly influenced by whether the participants were living in an urban or rural environment, with a significantly greater relative abundance of Trabulsiella in urban populations. Adults maintained greater overall microbial diversity than adolescents or the elderly, while the intragroupmore » variation among the elderly and rural populations was significantly greater. Lastly, skin-associated bacterial community structure and composition could predict whether a sample came from an urban or a rural resident ~ 5x greater than random.« less

The influence of age and gender on skin-associated microbial communities in urban and rural human populations

DOE PAGES

Ying, Shi; Zeng, Dan -Ning; Chi, Liang; ...

2015-10-28

Differences in the bacterial community structure associated with 7 skin sites in 71 healthy people over five days showed significant correlations with age, gender, physical skin parameters, and whether participants lived in urban or rural locations in the same city. While body site explained the majority of the variance in bacterial community structure, the composition of the skin-associated bacterial communities were predominantly influenced by whether the participants were living in an urban or rural environment, with a significantly greater relative abundance of Trabulsiella in urban populations. Adults maintained greater overall microbial diversity than adolescents or the elderly, while the intragroupmore » variation among the elderly and rural populations was significantly greater. Lastly, skin-associated bacterial community structure and composition could predict whether a sample came from an urban or a rural resident ~ 5x greater than random.« less

Variability and population genetic structure in Achyrocline flaccida (Weinm.) DC., a species with high value in folk medicine in South America.

PubMed

Rosa, Juliana da; Weber, Gabriela Gomes; Cardoso, Rafaela; Górski, Felipe; Da-Silva, Paulo Roberto

2017-01-01

Better knowledge of medicinal plant species and their conservation is an urgent need worldwide. Decision making for conservation strategies can be based on the knowledge of the variability and population genetic structure of the species and on the events that may influence these genetic parameters. Achyrocline flaccida (Weinm.) DC. is a native plant from the grassy fields of South America with high value in folk medicine. In spite of its importance, no genetic and conservation studies are available for the species. In this work, microsatellite and ISSR (inter-simple sequence repeat) markers were used to estimate the genetic variability and structure of seven populations of A. flaccida from southern Brazil. The microsatellite markers were inefficient in A. flaccida owing to a high number of null alleles. After the evaluation of 42 ISSR primers on one population, 10 were selected for further analysis of seven A. flaccida populations. The results of ISSR showed that the high number of exclusive absence of loci might contribute to the inter-population differentiation. Genetic variability of the species was high (Nei's diversity of 0.23 and Shannon diversity of 0.37). AMOVA indicated higher genetic variability within (64.7%) than among (33.96%) populations, and the variability was unevenly distributed (FST 0.33). Gene flow among populations ranged from 1.68 to 5.2 migrants per generation, with an average of 1.39. The results of PCoA and Bayesian analyses corroborated and indicated that the populations are structured. The observed genetic variability and population structure of A. flaccida are discussed in the context of the vegetation formation history in southern Brazil, as well as the possible anthropogenic effects. Additionally, we discuss the implications of the results in the conservation of the species.

Integration of Harvest and Time-to-Event Data Used to Estimate Demographic Parameters for White-tailed Deer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norton, Andrew S.

An integral component of managing game species is an understanding of population dynamics and relative abundance. Harvest data are frequently used to estimate abundance of white-tailed deer. Unless harvest age-structure is representative of the population age-structure and harvest vulnerability remains constant from year to year, these data alone are of limited value. Additional model structure and auxiliary information has accommodated this shortcoming. Specifically, integrated age-at-harvest (AAH) state-space population models can formally combine multiple sources of data, and regularization via hierarchical model structure can increase flexibility of model parameters. I collected known fates data, which I evaluated and used to inform trends in survival parameters for an integrated AAH model. I used temperature and snow depth covariates to predict survival outside of the hunting season, and opening weekend temperature and percent of corn harvest covariates to predict hunting season survival. When auxiliary empirical data were unavailable for the AAH model, moderately informative priors provided sufficient information for convergence and parameter estimates. The AAH model was most sensitive to errors in initial abundance, but this error was calibrated after 3 years. Among vital rates, the AAH model was most sensitive to reporting rates (percentage of mortality during the hunting season related to harvest). The AAH model, using only harvest data, was able to track changing abundance trends due to changes in survival rates even when prior models did not inform these changes (i.e. prior models were constant when truth varied). I also compared AAH model results with estimates from the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WIDNR). Trends in abundance estimates from both models were similar, although AAH model predictions were systematically higher than WIDNR estimates in the East study area. When I incorporated auxiliary information (i.e. integrated AAH model) about survival outside the hunting season from known fates data, predicted trends appeared more closely related to what was expected. Disagreements between the AAH model and WIDNR estimates in the East were likely related to biased predictions for reporting and survival rates from the AAH model.

Forensic parameters and admixture in Mestizos from five geographic regions of Mexico based on 20 autosomal STRs (Powerplex 21 system).

PubMed

Aguilar-Velázquez, J A; Martínez-Cortés, G; Inclán-Sánchez, A; Favela-Mendoza, A F; Velarde-Félix, J S; Rangel-Villalobos, H

2018-03-01

We analyzed Mestizo (admixed) population samples from different geographic regions of Mexico (n = 1283) with 20 autosomal STRs (PowerPlex® 21, Promega Corp.). Allele frequencies and forensic parameters from the Northwest, Northeast, West, Center, and Southeast regions are reported, as well as from the pooled Mexican population sample. The combined PD and PE for this 20 STR system were > 0.9999999999 and > 0.99999996593% in all five population samples, respectively. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) of these Mexican population samples, plus Monterrey (Northeast) and Mexico (Center) Cities, showed low but significant differences among Mexican-Mestizos from the seven populations (Fst = 0.20%; p = 0.0000). Structure analysis showed the highest proportion of Native American ancestry in Mexico City, Center, and Southeast regions, respectively, which was in agreement with the estimated genetic distances represented in a MDS plot and a NJ tree. The best fit of population clusters (K = 4) obtained with the Structure software indicates that Mexican-Mestizos are mainly composed by European, African, and two Native American ancestries. The European and Native American ancestries displayed a contrary gradient, increasing toward the North-West and South-Southeast, respectively. These 20 autosomal STR loci improved the admixture estimation regarding previous studies with the 13 CODIS-STRs, as supported by the higher similarity with previous estimates based on genome-wide SNP. In brief, this study validates the confident use of the PowerPlex® 21 system for human identification purposes in Mestizo populations throughout the Mexican territory.

Disease-emergence dynamics and control in a socially-structured wildlife species

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pepin, Kim M.; Vercauteren, Kurt C.

2016-04-01

Once a pathogen is introduced in a population, key factors governing rate of spread include contact structure, supply of susceptible individuals and pathogen life-history. We examined the interplay of these factors on emergence dynamics and efficacy of disease prevention and response. We contrasted transmission dynamics of livestock viruses with different life-histories in hypothetical populations of feral swine with different contact structures (homogenous, metapopulation, spatial and network). Persistence probability was near 0 for the FMDV-like case under a wide range of parameter values and contact structures, while persistence was probable for the CSFV-like case. There were no sets of conditions where the FMDV-like pathogen persisted in every stochastic simulation. Even when population growth rates were up to 300% annually, the FMDV-like pathogen persisted in <25% of simulations regardless of transmission probabilities and contact structure. For networks and spatial contact structure, persistence probability of the FMDV-like pathogen was always <10%. Because of its low persistence probability, even very early response to the FMDV-like pathogen in feral swine was unwarranted while response to the CSFV-like pathogen was generally effective. When pre-emergence culling of feral swine caused population declines, it was effective at decreasing outbreak size of both diseases by ≥80%.

[Dynamic of marriage structure in three cities of Ukraine from 1960 to 1992].

PubMed

Timchenko, O I; Omel'chenko, E M; Nikula, E T

2000-04-01

Marriage structure was studied in the city of Kiev and in two cities of the Sumy oblast, Shostka and Trostyanets. Ethnic affiliations and birthplaces of persons contracting marriage were analyzed as the main characteristics of population genetic diversity. The ethnic composition of persons contracting marriage and the proportions of mono- and interethnic marriages remained almost unchanged during one generation. The majority of the persons contracting marriage were Ukrainians (66-91%); among other ethnic groups, only Russians considerably contributed to ethnic diversity (up to 26%). During the period studied, coefficients of marital migration substantially decreased in Kiev (from 0.66-0.82 to 0.34) and Shostka (from 0.72 to 0.52) and changed only insignificantly in Trostyanets. Outbreeding was estimated based on the migration parameters, exogamy level, and marital migration distances. The outbreeding level in the Shostka population (100,000 people) was comparable with that for the considerably larger Kiev population (two million people); however, it was significantly higher than that for the Trostyanets population, the size of which was close to the size of the Shostka population. It is supposed that "migration stress" may unfavorably affect the adaptive genetic structure of the Shostka population.

Hematological, biochemical effects, and self-reported symptoms in pesticide retailers.

PubMed

Rojas-García, Aurora Elizabeth; Medina-Díaz, Irma Martha; Robledo-Marenco, María de Lourdes; Barrón-Vivanco, Briscia Socorro; Girón-Pérez, Manuel Iván; Velázquez-Fernández, Jesús Bernardino; González-Arias, Cyndia Azucena; Albores-Medina, Arnulfo; Quintanilla-Vega, Betzabet; Ostrosky-Wegman, Patricia; Rojas-García, María Consuelo; Pérez-Herrera, Norma Elena; López-Flores, Juan Fernando

2011-05-01

This study evaluates the effects of exposure to pesticides on the health of pesticide retailers. The study population comprised 83-male pesticide retailers and 98 controls. Serum butyrylcholinesterase levels and complete blood analysis were performed in a certified laboratory and each subject completed a structured questionnaire. Butyrylcholinesterase activity and hematological parameters such as hemoglobin and hematocrit were significantly lower in pesticide retailers than in control subjects. In contrast, platelet count as well as hepatic parameters such as glutamic-pyruvate transaminase and gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase activities was higher in pesticide retailers. Furthermore, pesticide retailers experienced burning sensations in the skin more frequently than controls. These preliminary results suggest the importance of evaluating further toxicological biomarkers in these populations.

Sensitivity and Specificity of Eustachian Tube Function Tests in Adults

PubMed Central

Doyle, William J.; Swarts, J. Douglas; Banks, Julianne; Casselbrant, Margaretha L; Mandel, Ellen M; Alper, Cuneyt M.

2013-01-01

Objective Determine if Eustachian Tube (ET) function (ETF) tests can identify ears with physician-diagnosed ET dysfunction (ETD) in a mixed population at high sensitivity and specificity and define the inter-relatedness of ETF test parameters. Methods ETF was evaluated using the Forced-Response, Inflation-Deflation, Valsalva and Sniffing tests in 15 control ears of adult subjects after unilateral myringotomy (Group I) and in 23 ears of 19 adult subjects with ventilation tubes inserted for ETD (Group II). Data were analyzed using logistic regression including each parameter independently and then a step-down Discriminant Analysis including all ETF test parameters to predict group assignment. Factor Analysis operating over all parameters was used to explore relatedness. Results The Discriminant Analysis identified 4 ETF test parameters (Valsalva, ET opening pressure, dilatory efficiency and % positive pressure equilibrated) that together correctly assigned ears to Group II at a sensitivity of 95% and a specificity of 83%. Individual parameters representing the efficiency of ET opening during swallowing showed moderately accurate assignments of ears to their respective groups. Three factors captured approximately 98% of the variance among parameters, the first had negative loadings of the ETF structural parameters, the second had positive loadings of the muscle-assisted ET opening parameters and the third had negative loadings of the muscle-assisted ET opening parameters and positive loadings of the structural parameters. Discussion These results show that ETF tests can correctly assign individual ears to physician-diagnosed ETD with high sensitivity and specificity and that ETF test parameters can be grouped into structural-functional categories. PMID:23868429

Longitudinal association of short-term, metronome-paced heart rate variability and echocardiographically assessed cardiac structure at a 4-year follow-up: results from the prospective, population-based CARLA cohort.

PubMed

Medenwald, Daniel; Swenne, Cees A; Frantz, Stefan; Nuding, Sebastian; Kors, Jan A; Pietzner, Diana; Tiller, Daniel; Greiser, Karin H; Kluttig, Alexander; Haerting, Johannes

2017-12-01

To assess the value of cardiac structure/function in predicting heart rate variability (HRV) and the possibly predictive value of HRV on cardiac parameters. Baseline and 4-year follow-up data from the population-based CARLA cohort were used (790 men, 646 women, aged 45-83 years at baseline and 50-87 years at follow-up). Echocardiographic and HRV recordings were performed at baseline and at follow-up. Linear regression models with a quadratic term were used. Crude and covariate adjusted estimates were calculated. Missing values were imputed by means of multiple imputation. Heart rate variability measures taken into account consisted of linear time and frequency domain [standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN), high-frequency power (HF), low-frequency power (LF), LF/HF ratio] and non-linear measures [detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA1), SD1, SD2, SD1/SD2 ratio]. Echocardiographic parameters considered were ventricular mass index, diastolic interventricular septum thickness, left ventricular diastolic dimension, left atrial dimension systolic (LADS), and ejection fraction (Teichholz). A negative quadratic relation between baseline LADS and change in SDNN and HF was observed. The maximum HF and SDNN change (an increase of roughly 0.02%) was predicted at LADS of 3.72 and 3.57 cm, respectively, while the majority of subjects experienced a decrease in HRV. There was no association between further echocardiographic parameters and change in HRV, and there was no evidence of a predictive value of HRV in the prediction of changes in cardiac structure. In the general population, LADS predicts 4-year alteration in SDNN and HF non-linearly. Because of the novelty of the result, analyses should be replicated in other populations. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2017. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Identifying populations sensitive to environmental chemicals by simulating toxicokinetic variability.

PubMed

Ring, Caroline L; Pearce, Robert G; Setzer, R Woodrow; Wetmore, Barbara A; Wambaugh, John F

2017-09-01

The thousands of chemicals present in the environment (USGAO, 2013) must be triaged to identify priority chemicals for human health risk research. Most chemicals have little of the toxicokinetic (TK) data that are necessary for relating exposures to tissue concentrations that are believed to be toxic. Ongoing efforts have collected limited, in vitro TK data for a few hundred chemicals. These data have been combined with biomonitoring data to estimate an approximate margin between potential hazard and exposure. The most "at risk" 95th percentile of adults have been identified from simulated populations that are generated either using standard "average" adult human parameters or very specific cohorts such as Northern Europeans. To better reflect the modern U.S. population, we developed a population simulation using physiologies based on distributions of demographic and anthropometric quantities from the most recent U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data. This allowed incorporation of inter-individual variability, including variability across relevant demographic subgroups. Variability was analyzed with a Monte Carlo approach that accounted for the correlation structure in physiological parameters. To identify portions of the U.S. population that are more at risk for specific chemicals, physiologic variability was incorporated within an open-source high-throughput (HT) TK modeling framework. We prioritized 50 chemicals based on estimates of both potential hazard and exposure. Potential hazard was estimated from in vitro HT screening assays (i.e., the Tox21 and ToxCast programs). Bioactive in vitro concentrations were extrapolated to doses that produce equivalent concentrations in body tissues using a reverse dosimetry approach in which generic TK models are parameterized with: 1) chemical-specific parameters derived from in vitro measurements and predicted from chemical structure; and 2) with physiological parameters for a virtual population. For risk-based prioritization of chemicals, predicted bioactive equivalent doses were compared to demographic-specific inferences of exposure rates that were based on NHANES urinary analyte biomonitoring data. The inclusion of NHANES-derived inter-individual variability decreased predicted bioactive equivalent doses by 12% on average for the total population when compared to previous methods. However, for some combinations of chemical and demographic groups the margin was reduced by as much as three quarters. This TK modeling framework allows targeted risk prioritization of chemicals for demographic groups of interest, including potentially sensitive life stages and subpopulations. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

The Influence of Friction Stir Weld Tool Form and Welding Parameters on Weld Structure and Properties: Nugget Bulge in Self-Reacting Friction Stir Welds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schneider, Judy; Nunes, Arthur C., Jr.; Brendel, Michael S.

2010-01-01

Although friction stir welding (FSW) was patented in 1991, process development has been based upon trial and error and the literature still exhibits little understanding of the mechanisms determining weld structure and properties. New concepts emerging from a better understanding of these mechanisms enhance the ability of FSW engineers to think about the FSW process in new ways, inevitably leading to advances in the technology. A kinematic approach in which the FSW flow process is decomposed into several simple flow components has been found to explain the basic structural features of FSW welds and to relate them to tool geometry and process parameters. Using this modelling approach, this study reports on a correlation between the features of the weld nugget, process parameters, weld tool geometry, and weld strength. This correlation presents a way to select process parameters for a given tool geometry so as to optimize weld strength. It also provides clues that may ultimately explain why the weld strength varies within the sample population.

Population genetics of Glossina palpalis palpalis from central African sleeping sickness foci.

PubMed

Melachio, Trésor Tito Tanekou T T; Simo, Gustave; Ravel, Sophie; De Meeûs, Thierry; Causse, Sandrine; Solano, Philippe; Lutumba, Pascal; Asonganyi, Tazoacha; Njiokou, Flobert

2011-07-18

Glossina palpalis palpalis (Diptera: Glossinidae) is widespread in west Africa, and is the main vector of sleeping sickness in Cameroon as well as in the Bas Congo Province of the Democratic Republic of Congo. However, little is known on the structure of its populations. We investigated G. p. palpalis population genetic structure in five sleeping sickness foci (four in Cameroon, one in Democratic Republic of Congo) using eight microsatellite DNA markers. A strong isolation by distance explains most of the population structure observed in our sampling sites of Cameroon and DRC. The populations here are composed of panmictic subpopulations occupying fairly wide zones with a very strong isolation by distance. Effective population sizes are probably between 20 and 300 individuals and if we assume densities between 120 and 2000 individuals per km2, dispersal distance between reproducing adults and their parents extends between 60 and 300 meters. This first investigation of population genetic structure of G. p. palpalis in Central Africa has evidenced random mating subpopulations over fairly large areas and is thus at variance with that found in West African populations of G. p. palpalis. This study brings new information on the isolation by distance at a macrogeographic scale which in turn brings useful information on how to organise regional tsetse control. Future investigations should be directed at temporal sampling to have more accurate measures of demographic parameters in order to help vector control decision.

Developmental changes in the histological structure of the testes, and testosterone profiles in male guinea fowls (Numida meleagris).

PubMed

Abdul-Rahman, Iddriss I; Obese, Frederick Y; Jeffcoate, Ian A

2017-10-01

Owing to the paucity of information on the reproductive biology of guinea fowls, a study involving a total of 66 males was conducted, and documented the developmental changes in histological structure of the testes of guinea cocks from hatching until adulthood. Changes in testosterone synthesis during sexual development were also determined. Age-related changes were analysed using univariate analysis for completely randomised design and means separated using Tukey's test/Kruskal-Wallis test and medians separated by Mann-Whitney U test. Total germ cell population per testis and testicular histological morphometric parameters increased significantly (p < 0.0001) from 12 weeks of age (WOA), and stabilized between 20 and 24 WOA. Peripheral testosterone concentrations increased gradually from 4 WOA, and peaked at 20 WOA. Correlations among all the testicular morphometric parameters were positive and highly significant (p < 0.01). Similarly, significant (p < 0.05) positive correlations existed between testicular weight and testicular sperm production, tubular diameter, Sertoli cell population, tubular length and peripheral testosterone concentration. Testicular sperm production was positively correlated with meiotic index (p < 0.01) and round spermatids population (p < 0.05). The correlations between peripheral testosterone concentrations, tubular diameter and Sertoli efficiency were also significant (p < 0.05) and positive. Testicular morphometric parameters stabilized between 20 and 24 WOA, while peripheral testosterone concentrations showed two patterns of secretion, initial and final phases of increasing and decreasing testosterone secretions, respectively, and may be implicated in the development of histological structures of the testes and spermatogenesis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Populations of weedy crop–wild hybrid beets show contrasting variation in mating system and population genetic structure

PubMed Central

Arnaud, Jean-François; Fénart, Stéphane; Cordellier, Mathilde; Cuguen, Joël

2010-01-01

Reproductive traits are key parameters for the evolution of invasiveness in weedy crop–wild hybrids. In Beta vulgaris, cultivated beets hybridize with their wild relatives in the seed production areas, giving rise to crop–wild hybrid weed beets. We investigated the genetic structure, the variation in first-year flowering and the variation in mating system among weed beet populations occurring within sugar beet production fields. No spatial genetic structure was found for first-year populations composed of F1 crop–wild hybrid beets. In contrast, populations composed of backcrossed weed beets emerging from the seed bank showed a strong isolation-by-distance pattern. Whereas gametophytic self-incompatibility prevents selfing in wild beet populations, all studied weed beet populations had a mixed-mating system, plausibly because of the introgression of the crop-derived Sf gene that disrupts self-incompatibility. No significant relationship between outcrossing rate and local weed beet density was found, suggesting no trends for a shift in the mating system because of environmental effects. We further reveal that increased invasiveness of weed beets may stem from positive selection on first-year flowering induction depending on the B gene inherited from the wild. Finally, we discuss the practical and applied consequences of our findings for crop-weed management. PMID:25567926

Estimating the Variance of Design Parameters

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hedberg, E. C.; Hedges, L. V.; Kuyper, A. M.

2015-01-01

Randomized experiments are generally considered to provide the strongest basis for causal inferences about cause and effect. Consequently randomized field trials have been increasingly used to evaluate the effects of education interventions, products, and services. Populations of interest in education are often hierarchically structured (such as…

Data on litter quality of host grass plants with and without fungal endophytes

PubMed Central

Gundel, P.E.; Helander, M.; Garibaldi, L.A.; Vázquez-de-Aldana, B.R.; Zabalgogeazcoa, I.; Saikkonen, K.

2016-01-01

Certain Pooideae species form persistent symbiosis with fungal endophytes of Epichloë genus. Although endophytes are known to impact the ecology and evolution of host species, their effects on parameters related with quality of plant biomass has been elusive. This article provides information about parameters related with the quality of plant litter biomass of two important grass species (Schedonorus phoenix and Schedonorus pratensis) affected by the symbiosis with fungal endophytes (Epichloë coenophiala and Epichloë uncinata, respectively). Four population origins of S. phoenix and one of S. pratensis were included. Mineral, biochemical and structural parameters were obtained from three samples per factors combination [species (and population origin)×endophyte]. This data can be potentially used in other studies which, by means of ‘data reanalyzing’ or meta-analysis, attempt to find generalizations about endophyte effects on host plant litter biomass. The present data is associated with the research article “Role of foliar fungal endophytes on litter decomposition among species and population origins” (Gundel et al., In preparation) [1]. PMID:27182541

Modeling multilayer x-ray reflectivity using genetic algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez del Río, M.; Pareschi, G.; Michetschläger, C.

2000-06-01

The x-ray reflectivity of a multilayer is a non-linear function of many parameters (materials, layer thickness, density, roughness). Non-linear fitting of experimental data with simulations requires the use of initial values sufficiently close to the optimum value. This is a difficult task when the topology of the space of the variables is highly structured. We apply global optimization methods to fit multilayer reflectivity. Genetic algorithms are stochastic methods based on the model of natural evolution: the improvement of a population along successive generations. A complete set of initial parameters constitutes an individual. The population is a collection of individuals. Each generation is built from the parent generation by applying some operators (selection, crossover, mutation, etc.) on the members of the parent generation. The pressure of selection drives the population to include "good" individuals. For large number of generations, the best individuals will approximate the optimum parameters. Some results on fitting experimental hard x-ray reflectivity data for Ni/C and W/Si multilayers using genetic algorithms are presented. This method can also be applied to design multilayers optimized for a target application.

Effects of host social hierarchy on disease persistence.

PubMed

Davidson, Ross S; Marion, Glenn; Hutchings, Michael R

2008-08-07

The effects of social hierarchy on population dynamics and epidemiology are examined through a model which contains a number of fundamental features of hierarchical systems, but is simple enough to allow analytical insight. In order to allow for differences in birth rates, contact rates and movement rates among different sets of individuals the population is first divided into subgroups representing levels in the hierarchy. Movement, representing dominance challenges, is allowed between any two levels, giving a completely connected network. The model includes hierarchical effects by introducing a set of dominance parameters which affect birth rates in each social level and movement rates between social levels, dependent upon their rank. Although natural hierarchies vary greatly in form, the skewing of contact patterns, introduced here through non-uniform dominance parameters, has marked effects on the spread of disease. A simple homogeneous mixing differential equation model of a disease with SI dynamics in a population subject to simple birth and death process is presented and it is shown that the hierarchical model tends to this as certain parameter regions are approached. Outside of these parameter regions correlations within the system give rise to deviations from the simple theory. A Gaussian moment closure scheme is developed which extends the homogeneous model in order to take account of correlations arising from the hierarchical structure, and it is shown that the results are in reasonable agreement with simulations across a range of parameters. This approach helps to elucidate the origin of hierarchical effects and shows that it may be straightforward to relate the correlations in the model to measurable quantities which could be used to determine the importance of hierarchical corrections. Overall, hierarchical effects decrease the levels of disease present in a given population compared to a homogeneous unstructured model, but show higher levels of disease than structured models with no hierarchy. The separation between these three models is greatest when the rate of dominance challenges is low, reducing mixing, and when the disease prevalence is low. This suggests that these effects will often need to be considered in models being used to examine the impact of control strategies where the low disease prevalence behaviour of a model is critical.

Genetic diversity and structure of Megabalanus azoricus in the Azores: Implications for aquaculture management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Girolamo, Mirko; Torboli, Valentina; Pallavicini, Alberto; Isidro, Eduardo

2017-11-01

Megabalanus azoricus giant barnacles are the most traditional seafood of the Azores archipelago (NE Atlantic). This valuable commercial species has been highly exploited in the past and it is considered one of the key species for the development of aquaculture in the region. Despite the importance for conservation and aquaculture there is still a lack of basic information about M. azoricus genetic diversity and population structure. Here we used seven microsatellites markers to analyse 300 samples collected at six out of nine islands of the Azores archipelago, including also different locations from a single island, to provide information on the scale of genetic diversity and population structure of this species. Parameters like heterozygosity, allelic richness and effective number of alleles indicated a high genetic diversity and variability among islands. Pairwise comparisons and PCoA analysis on FST and Jost's DEST showed significant and evident differentiation among sampling locations. Additionally, AMOVA allocates a small (6.02%) but statistically significant portion of the variance to the among Island level revealing also a weak resolution (1.87%) at finer scale. Additionally Monte Carlo resampling methods indicated the most likely sources of the recruits were the local or adjacent populations. Genetic risks associated with the giant barnacle potential production scheme should be taken into account in a future management plan delimiting, as precautionary measure, this culture at a single island or at groups of islands here identified. Moreover a monitoring strategy should be implemented with the aim to evaluate possible changes in genetic parameters of native populations.

Integrated Evaluation of Age-Related Changes in Structural and Functional Vascular Parameters Used to Assess Arterial Aging, Subclinical Atherosclerosis, and Cardiovascular Risk in Uruguayan Adults: CUiiDARTE Project

PubMed Central

Bia, Daniel; Zócalo, Yanina; Farro, Ignacio; Torrado, Juan; Farro, Federico; Florio, Lucía; Olascoaga, Alicia; Brum, Javier; Alallón, Walter; Negreira, Carlos; Lluberas, Ricardo; Armentano, Ricardo L.

2011-01-01

This work was carried out in a Uruguayan (South American) population to characterize aging-associated physiological arterial changes. Parameters markers of subclinical atherosclerosis and that associate age-related changes were evaluated in healthy people. A conservative approach was used and people with nonphysiological and pathological conditions were excluded. Then, we excluded subjects with (a) cardiovascular (CV) symptoms, (b) CV disease, (c) diabetes mellitus or renal failure, and (d) traditional CV risk factors (other than age and gender). Subjects (n = 388) were submitted to non-invasive vascular studies (gold-standard techniques), to evaluate (1) common (CCA), internal, and external carotid plaque prevalence, (2) CCA intima-media thickness and diameter, (3) CCA stiffness (percentual pulsatility, compliance, distensibility, and stiffness index), (4) aortic stiffness (carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity), and (5) peripheral and central pressure wave-derived parameters. Age groups: ≤20, 21–30, 31–40, 41–50, 51–60, 61–70, and 71–80 years old. Age-related structural and functional vascular parameters profiles were obtained and analyzed considering data from other populations. The work has the strength of being the first, in Latin America, that uses an integrative approach to characterize vascular aging-related changes. Data could be used to define vascular aging and abnormal or disease-related changes. PMID:22187622

Integrated Evaluation of Age-Related Changes in Structural and Functional Vascular Parameters Used to Assess Arterial Aging, Subclinical Atherosclerosis, and Cardiovascular Risk in Uruguayan Adults: CUiiDARTE Project.

PubMed

Bia, Daniel; Zócalo, Yanina; Farro, Ignacio; Torrado, Juan; Farro, Federico; Florio, Lucía; Olascoaga, Alicia; Brum, Javier; Alallón, Walter; Negreira, Carlos; Lluberas, Ricardo; Armentano, Ricardo L

2011-01-01

This work was carried out in a Uruguayan (South American) population to characterize aging-associated physiological arterial changes. Parameters markers of subclinical atherosclerosis and that associate age-related changes were evaluated in healthy people. A conservative approach was used and people with nonphysiological and pathological conditions were excluded. Then, we excluded subjects with (a) cardiovascular (CV) symptoms, (b) CV disease, (c) diabetes mellitus or renal failure, and (d) traditional CV risk factors (other than age and gender). Subjects (n = 388) were submitted to non-invasive vascular studies (gold-standard techniques), to evaluate (1) common (CCA), internal, and external carotid plaque prevalence, (2) CCA intima-media thickness and diameter, (3) CCA stiffness (percentual pulsatility, compliance, distensibility, and stiffness index), (4) aortic stiffness (carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity), and (5) peripheral and central pressure wave-derived parameters. Age groups: ≤20, 21-30, 31-40, 41-50, 51-60, 61-70, and 71-80 years old. Age-related structural and functional vascular parameters profiles were obtained and analyzed considering data from other populations. The work has the strength of being the first, in Latin America, that uses an integrative approach to characterize vascular aging-related changes. Data could be used to define vascular aging and abnormal or disease-related changes.

Integrating data from multiple sources for insights into demographic processes: Simulation studies and proof of concept for hierarchical change-in-ratio models.

PubMed

Nilsen, Erlend B; Strand, Olav

2018-01-01

We developed a model for estimating demographic rates and population abundance based on multiple data sets revealing information about population age- and sex structure. Such models have previously been described in the literature as change-in-ratio models, but we extend the applicability of the models by i) using time series data allowing the full temporal dynamics to be modelled, by ii) casting the model in an explicit hierarchical modelling framework, and by iii) estimating parameters based on Bayesian inference. Based on sensitivity analyses we conclude that the approach developed here is able to obtain estimates of demographic rate with high precision whenever unbiased data of population structure are available. Our simulations revealed that this was true also when data on population abundance are not available or not included in the modelling framework. Nevertheless, when data on population structure are biased due to different observability of different age- and sex categories this will affect estimates of all demographic rates. Estimates of population size is particularly sensitive to such biases, whereas demographic rates can be relatively precisely estimated even with biased observation data as long as the bias is not severe. We then use the models to estimate demographic rates and population abundance for two Norwegian reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) populations where age-sex data were available for all harvested animals, and where population structure surveys were carried out in early summer (after calving) and late fall (after hunting season), and population size is counted in winter. We found that demographic rates were similar regardless whether we include population count data in the modelling, but that the estimated population size is affected by this decision. This suggest that monitoring programs that focus on population age- and sex structure will benefit from collecting additional data that allow estimation of observability for different age- and sex classes. In addition, our sensitivity analysis suggests that focusing monitoring towards changes in demographic rates might be more feasible than monitoring abundance in many situations where data on population age- and sex structure can be collected.

Association between smoking status and the parameters of vascular structure and function in adults: results from the EVIDENT study.

PubMed

Recio-Rodriguez, Jose I; Gomez-Marcos, Manuel A; Patino Alonso, Maria C; Martin-Cantera, Carlos; Ibañez-Jalon, Elisa; Melguizo-Bejar, Amor; Garcia-Ortiz, Luis

2013-12-01

The present study analyses the relation between smoking status and the parameters used to assess vascular structure and function. This cross-sectional, multi-centre study involved a random sample of 1553 participants from the EVIDENT study. The smoking status, peripheral augmentation index and ankle-brachial index were measured in all participants. In a small subset of the main population (265 participants), the carotid intima-media thickness and pulse wave velocity were also measured. After controlling for the effect of age, sex and other risk factors, present smokers have higher values of carotid intima-media thickness (p = 0.011). Along the same lines, current smokers have higher values of pulse wave velocity and lower mean values of ankle-brachial index but without statistical significance in both cases. Among the parameters of vascular structure and function analysed, only the IMT shows association with the smoking status, after adjusting for confounders.

Association between smoking status and the parameters of vascular structure and function in adults: results from the EVIDENT study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The present study analyses the relation between smoking status and the parameters used to assess vascular structure and function. Methods This cross-sectional, multi-centre study involved a random sample of 1553 participants from the EVIDENT study. Measurements: The smoking status, peripheral augmentation index and ankle-brachial index were measured in all participants. In a small subset of the main population (265 participants), the carotid intima-media thickness and pulse wave velocity were also measured. Results After controlling for the effect of age, sex and other risk factors, present smokers have higher values of carotid intima-media thickness (p = 0.011). Along the same lines, current smokers have higher values of pulse wave velocity and lower mean values of ankle-brachial index but without statistical significance in both cases. Conclusions Among the parameters of vascular structure and function analysed, only the IMT shows association with the smoking status, after adjusting for confounders. PMID:24289208

Aboriginal population prospects.

PubMed

Gray, A; Tesfaghiorghis, H

1993-11-01

The authors examine data from the 1986 and 1991 Australian censuses to assess discrepancies between the census data and past projections of the size and structure of the Aboriginal population. They also "comment on ways in which determinants of Aboriginal population change are diverging from the parameters used for previous projections. We pay particular attention to mortality prospects.... We note the evidence for under-enumeration of the Aboriginal population in particular age groups in the 1991 Census as in previous censuses, and estimate the size of adjustments necessary to correct for some, but not all, of these deficiencies. The analysis shows that Aboriginal fertility increased in the second half of the 1980s." excerpt

Demographic analysis from summaries of an age-structured population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, William A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hatfield, Jeff S.

2003-01-01

Demographic analyses of age-structured populations typically rely on life history data for individuals, or when individual animals are not identified, on information about the numbers of individuals in each age class through time. While it is usually difficult to determine the age class of a randomly encountered individual, it is often the case that the individual can be readily and reliably assigned to one of a set of age classes. For example, it is often possible to distinguish first-year from older birds. In such cases, the population age structure can be regarded as a latent variable governed by a process prior, and the data as summaries of this latent structure. In this article, we consider the problem of uncovering the latent structure and estimating process parameters from summaries of age class information. We present a demographic analysis for the critically endangered migratory population of whooping cranes (Grus americana), based only on counts of first-year birds and of older birds. We estimate age and year-specific survival rates. We address the controversial issue of whether management action on the breeding grounds has influenced recruitment, relating recruitment rates to the number of seventh-year and older birds, and examining the pattern of variation through time in this rate.

Inferences of population structure and demographic history for Taxodium distichum, a coniferous tree in North America, based on amplicon sequencing analysis.

PubMed

Ikezaki, Yuka; Suyama, Yoshihisa; Middleton, Beth A; Tsumura, Yoshihiko; Teshima, Kousuke; Tachida, Hidenori; Kusumi, Junko

2016-11-01

Studies of natural genetic variation can elucidate the genetic basis of phenotypic variation and the past population structure of species. Our study species, Taxodium distichum, is a unique conifer that inhabits the flood plains and swamps of North America. Morphological and ecological differences in two varieties, T. distichum var. distichum (bald cypress) and T. distichum var. imbricarium (pond cypress), are well known, but little is known about the level of genetic differentiation between the varieties and the demographic history of local populations. We analyzed nucleotide polymorphisms at 47 nuclear loci from 96 individuals collected from the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (MRAV), and Gulf Coastal populations in Texas, Louisiana, and Florida using high-throughput DNA sequencing. Standard population genetic statistics were calculated, and demographic parameters were estimated using a composite-likelihood approach. Taxodium distichum in North America can be divided into at least three genetic groups, bald cypress in the MRAV and Texas, bald cypress in Florida, and pond cypress in Florida. The levels of genetic differentiation among the groups were low but significant. Several loci showed the signatures of positive selection, which might be responsible for local adaptation or varietal differentiation. Bald cypress was genetically differentiated into two geographical groups, and the boundary was located between the MRAV and Florida. This differentiation could be explained by population expansion from east to west. Despite the overlap of the two varieties' ranges, they were genetically differentiated in Florida. The estimated demographic parameters suggested that pond cypress split from bald cypress during the late Miocene. © 2016 Botanical Society of America.

Data integration for inference about spatial processes: A model-based approach to test and account for data inconsistency

PubMed Central

Pedrini, Paolo; Bragalanti, Natalia; Groff, Claudio

2017-01-01

Recently-developed methods that integrate multiple data sources arising from the same ecological processes have typically utilized structured data from well-defined sampling protocols (e.g., capture-recapture and telemetry). Despite this new methodological focus, the value of opportunistic data for improving inference about spatial ecological processes is unclear and, perhaps more importantly, no procedures are available to formally test whether parameter estimates are consistent across data sources and whether they are suitable for integration. Using data collected on the reintroduced brown bear population in the Italian Alps, a population of conservation importance, we combined data from three sources: traditional spatial capture-recapture data, telemetry data, and opportunistic data. We developed a fully integrated spatial capture-recapture (SCR) model that included a model-based test for data consistency to first compare model estimates using different combinations of data, and then, by acknowledging data-type differences, evaluate parameter consistency. We demonstrate that opportunistic data lend itself naturally to integration within the SCR framework and highlight the value of opportunistic data for improving inference about space use and population size. This is particularly relevant in studies of rare or elusive species, where the number of spatial encounters is usually small and where additional observations are of high value. In addition, our results highlight the importance of testing and accounting for inconsistencies in spatial information from structured and unstructured data so as to avoid the risk of spurious or averaged estimates of space use and consequently, of population size. Our work supports the use of a single modeling framework to combine spatially-referenced data while also accounting for parameter consistency. PMID:28973034

Genetic structure of coexisting wild and managed agave populations: implications for the evolution of plants under domestication

PubMed Central

Figueredo, Carmen Julia; Casas, Alejandro; González-Rodríguez, Antonio; Nassar, Jafet M.; Colunga-GarcíaMarín, Patricia; Rocha-Ramírez, Víctor

2015-01-01

Domestication is a continuous evolutionary process guided by humans. This process leads to divergence in characteristics such as behaviour, morphology or genetics, between wild and managed populations. Agaves have been important resources for Mesoamerican peoples since prehistory. Some species are domesticated and others vary in degree of domestication. Agave inaequidens Koch is used in central Mexico to produce mescal, and a management gradient from gathered wild and silvicultural populations, as well as cultivated plantations, has been documented. Significant morphological differences were reported among wild and managed populations, and a high phenotypic variation in cultivated populations composed of plants from different populations. We evaluated levels of genetic diversity and structure associated with management, hypothesizing that high morphological variation would be accompanied by high genetic diversity in populations with high gene flow and low genetic structure among managed and unmanaged populations. Wild, silvicultural and cultivated populations were studied, collecting tissue of 19–30 plants per population. Through 10 nuclear microsatellite loci, we compared population genetic parameters. We analysed partition of variation associated with management categories to estimate gene flow among populations. Agave inaequidens exhibits high levels of genetic diversity (He = 0.707) and moderate genetic structure (FST = 0.112). No differences were found in levels of genetic diversity among wild (He = 0.704), silviculturally managed (He = 0.733) and cultivated (He = 0.698) populations. Bayesian analysis indicated that five genetic clusters best fit the data, with genetic groups corresponding to habitats where populations grow rather than to management. Migration rates ranged from zero between two populations to markedly high among others (M = 0.73–35.25). Natural mechanisms of gene flow and the dynamic management of agave propagules among populations favour gene flow and the maintenance of high levels of variation within all populations. The slight differentiation associated with management indicates that domestication is in an incipient stage. PMID:26433707

Macrogeographic and microgeographic genetic structure of the Chagas' disease vector Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) from Catamarca, Argentina.

PubMed

Pérez de Rosas, Alicia R; Segura, Elsa L; Fichera, Laura; García, Beatriz Alicia

2008-07-01

The genetic structure in populations of the Chagas' disease vector Triatoma infestans from six localities belonging to areas under the same insecticide treatment conditions of Catamarca province (Argentina) was examined at macrogeographical and microgeographical scales. A total of 238 insects were typed for 10 polymorphic microsatellite loci. The average observed and expected heterozygosities ranged from 0.319 to 0.549 and from 0.389 to 0.689, respectively. The present results confirm that populations of T. infestans are highly structured. Spatial genetic structure was detectable at macrogeographical and microgeographical levels. Comparisons of the levels of genetic variability between two temporal samples were carried out to assess the impact of the insecticide treatment. The genetic diversity of the population was not significantly affected after insecticide use since different genetic parameters (allele number, observed and expected heterozygosities) remained stable. However, loss of low frequency alleles and not previously found alleles were detected. The effective population size (N(e)) estimated was substantially lower in the second temporal sample than in the first; nevertheless, it is possible that the size of the remnant population after insecticide treatment was still large enough to retain the genetic diversity. Very few individuals did not belong to the local T. infestans populations as determined by assignment analyses, suggesting a low level of immigration in the population. The results of the assignment and first-generation migrant tests suggest male-biased dispersal at microgeographical level.

The Variance of Intraclass Correlations in Three- and Four-Level Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hedges, Larry V.; Hedberg, E. C.; Kuyper, Arend M.

2012-01-01

Intraclass correlations are used to summarize the variance decomposition in populations with multilevel hierarchical structure. There has recently been considerable interest in estimating intraclass correlations from surveys or designed experiments to provide design parameters for planning future large-scale randomized experiments. The large…

Genetic structure and demographic history of Colletotrichum gloeosporioides sensu lato and C. truncatum isolates from Trinidad and Mexico.

PubMed

Rampersad, Sephra N; Perez-Brito, Daisy; Torres-Calzada, Claudia; Tapia-Tussell, Raul; Carrington, Christine V F

2013-06-22

C. gloeosporioides sensu lato is one of the most economically important post-harvest diseases affecting papaya production worldwide. There is currently no information concerning the genetic structure or demographic history of this pathogen in any of the affected countries. Knowledge of molecular demographic parameters for different populations will improve our understanding of the biogeographic history as well as the evolutionary and adaptive potential of these pathogens. In this study, sequence data for ACT, GPDH, β-TUB and ITS gene regions were analyzed for C. gloeosporioides sensu lato and C. truncatum isolates infecting papaya in Trinidad and Mexico in order to determine the genetic structure and demographic history of these populations. The data indicated that Mexico is the ancestral C. gloeosporioides sensu lato population with asymmetrical migration to Trinidad. Mexico also had the larger effective population size but, both Mexico and Trinidad populations exhibited population expansion. Mexico also had greater nucleotide diversity and high levels of diversity for each gene. There was significant sub-division of the Trinidad and Mexico populations and low levels of genetic divergence among populations for three of the four gene regions; β-TUB was shown to be under positive selection. There were also dissimilar haplotype characteristics for both populations. Mutation may play a role in shaping the population structure of C. gloeosporioides sensu lato isolates from Trinidad and from Mexico, especially with respect to the ACT and GPDH gene regions. There was no evidence of gene flow between the C. truncatum populations and it is possible that the Mexico and Trinidad populations emerged independently of each other. The study revealed relevant information based on the genetic structure as well as the demographic history of two fungal pathogens infecting papaya, C. gloeosporioides sensu lato and C. truncatum, in Trinidad and Mexico. Understanding the genetic structure of pathogen populations will assist in determining the evolutionary potential of the pathogen and in identifying which evolutionary forces may have the greatest impact on durability of resistance. Intervention strategies that target these evolutionary forces would prove to be the most practical.

Genetic structure and demographic history of Colletotrichum gloeosporioides sensu lato and C. truncatum isolates from Trinidad and Mexico

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background C. gloeosporioides sensu lato is one of the most economically important post-harvest diseases affecting papaya production worldwide. There is currently no information concerning the genetic structure or demographic history of this pathogen in any of the affected countries. Knowledge of molecular demographic parameters for different populations will improve our understanding of the biogeographic history as well as the evolutionary and adaptive potential of these pathogens. In this study, sequence data for ACT, GPDH, β-TUB and ITS gene regions were analyzed for C. gloeosporioides sensu lato and C. truncatum isolates infecting papaya in Trinidad and Mexico in order to determine the genetic structure and demographic history of these populations. Results The data indicated that Mexico is the ancestral C. gloeosporioides sensu lato population with asymmetrical migration to Trinidad. Mexico also had the larger effective population size but, both Mexico and Trinidad populations exhibited population expansion. Mexico also had greater nucleotide diversity and high levels of diversity for each gene. There was significant sub-division of the Trinidad and Mexico populations and low levels of genetic divergence among populations for three of the four gene regions; β-TUB was shown to be under positive selection. There were also dissimilar haplotype characteristics for both populations. Mutation may play a role in shaping the population structure of C. gloeosporioides sensu lato isolates from Trinidad and from Mexico, especially with respect to the ACT and GPDH gene regions. There was no evidence of gene flow between the C. truncatum populations and it is possible that the Mexico and Trinidad populations emerged independently of each other. Conclusions The study revealed relevant information based on the genetic structure as well as the demographic history of two fungal pathogens infecting papaya, C. gloeosporioides sensu lato and C. truncatum, in Trinidad and Mexico. Understanding the genetic structure of pathogen populations will assist in determining the evolutionary potential of the pathogen and in identifying which evolutionary forces may have the greatest impact on durability of resistance. Intervention strategies that target these evolutionary forces would prove to be the most practical. PMID:23800297

Recent invasion of the mountain birch Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa above the treeline due to climate change: genetic and ecological study in northern Sweden.

PubMed

Truong, C; Palmé, A E; Felber, F

2007-01-01

Mountain birch, Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa, forms the treeline in northern Sweden. A recent shift in the range of the species associated with an elevation of the treeline is commonly attributed to climate warming. Using microsatellite markers, we explored the genetic structure of populations along an altitudinal gradient close to the treeline. Low genetic differentiation was found between populations, whereas high genetic diversity was maintained within populations. High level of gene flow compensated for possible losses of genetic diversity at higher elevations and dissipated the founding effect of newly established populations above the treeline. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed low spatial genetic structure within populations because of extensive gene flow. At the treeline, significant genetic structure within the juvenile age class at small distances did not persist in the adult age class, indicating recent expansion of young recruits due to the warming of the climate. Finally, seedling performance above the treeline was positively correlated with parameters related to temperature. These data confirm the high migration potential of the species in response to fluctuating environmental conditions and indicate that it is now invading higher altitudes due to the recent warming of the climate.

Structuring of Bacterioplankton Diversity in a Large Tropical Bay

PubMed Central

Gregoracci, Gustavo B.; Nascimento, Juliana R.; Cabral, Anderson S.; Paranhos, Rodolfo; Valentin, Jean L.; Thompson, Cristiane C.; Thompson, Fabiano L.

2012-01-01

Structuring of bacterioplanktonic populations and factors that determine the structuring of specific niche partitions have been demonstrated only for a limited number of colder water environments. In order to better understand the physical chemical and biological parameters that may influence bacterioplankton diversity and abundance, we examined their productivity, abundance and diversity in the second largest Brazilian tropical bay (Guanabara Bay, GB), as well as seawater physical chemical and biological parameters of GB. The inner bay location with higher nutrient input favored higher microbial (including vibrio) growth. Metagenomic analysis revealed a predominance of Gammaproteobacteria in this location, while GB locations with lower nutrient concentration favored Alphaproteobacteria and Flavobacteria. According to the subsystems (SEED) functional analysis, GB has a distinctive metabolic signature, comprising a higher number of sequences in the metabolism of phosphorus and aromatic compounds and a lower number of sequences in the photosynthesis subsystem. The apparent phosphorus limitation appears to influence the GB metagenomic signature of the three locations. Phosphorus is also one of the main factors determining changes in the abundance of planktonic vibrios, suggesting that nutrient limitation can be observed at community (metagenomic) and population levels (total prokaryote and vibrio counts). PMID:22363639

Role of introduction history and landscape in the range expansion of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) in the Kerguelen Islands.

PubMed

Launey, Sophie; Brunet, Geraldine; Guyomard, René; Davaine, Patrick

2010-01-01

Human-mediated biological invasions constitute interesting case studies to understand evolutionary processes, including the role of founder effects. Population expansion of newly introduced species can be highly dependant on barriers caused by landscape features, but identifying these barriers and their impact on genetic structure is a relatively recent concern in population genetics and ecology. Salmonid populations of the Kerguelen Islands archipelago are a favorable model system to address these questions as these populations are characterized by a simple history of introduction, little or no anthropogenic influence, and demographic monitoring since the first introductions. We analyzed genetic variation at 10 microsatellite loci in 19 populations of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) in the Courbet Peninsula (Kerguelen Islands), where the species, introduced in 3 rivers only, has colonized the whole water system in 40 years. Despite a limited numbers of introductions, trout populations have maintained a genetic diversity comparable with what is found in hatchery or wild populations in Europe, but they are genetically structured. The main factor explaining the observed patterns of genetic diversity is the history of introductions, with each introduced population acting as a source for colonization of nearby rivers. Correlations between environmental and genetic parameters show that within each "source population" group, landscape characteristics (type of coast, accessibility of river mouth, distances between rivers, river length ...) play a role in shaping directions and rates of migration, and thus the genetic structure of the colonizing populations.

Estimating temporal trend in the presence of spatial complexity: A Bayesian hierarchical model for a wetland plant population undergoing restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodhouse, T.J.; Irvine, K.M.; Vierling, K.T.; Vierling, L.A.

2011-01-01

Monitoring programs that evaluate restoration and inform adaptive management are important for addressing environmental degradation. These efforts may be well served by spatially explicit hierarchical approaches to modeling because of unavoidable spatial structure inherited from past land use patterns and other factors. We developed Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate trends from annual density counts observed in a spatially structured wetland forb (Camassia quamash [camas]) population following the cessation of grazing and mowing on the study area, and in a separate reference population of camas. The restoration site was bisected by roads and drainage ditches, resulting in distinct subpopulations ("zones") with different land use histories. We modeled this spatial structure by fitting zone-specific intercepts and slopes. We allowed spatial covariance parameters in the model to vary by zone, as in stratified kriging, accommodating anisotropy and improving computation and biological interpretation. Trend estimates provided evidence of a positive effect of passive restoration, and the strength of evidence was influenced by the amount of spatial structure in the model. Allowing trends to vary among zones and accounting for topographic heterogeneity increased precision of trend estimates. Accounting for spatial autocorrelation shifted parameter coefficients in ways that varied among zones depending on strength of statistical shrinkage, autocorrelation and topographic heterogeneity-a phenomenon not widely described. Spatially explicit estimates of trend from hierarchical models will generally be more useful to land managers than pooled regional estimates and provide more realistic assessments of uncertainty. The ability to grapple with historical contingency is an appealing benefit of this approach.

Constructing stage-structured matrix population models from life tables: comparison of methods

PubMed Central

Diaz-Lopez, Jasmin

2017-01-01

A matrix population model is a convenient tool for summarizing per capita survival and reproduction rates (collectively vital rates) of a population and can be used for calculating an asymptotic finite population growth rate (λ) and generation time. These two pieces of information can be used for determining the status of a threatened species. The use of stage-structured population models has increased in recent years, and the vital rates in such models are often estimated using a life table analysis. However, potential bias introduced when converting age-structured vital rates estimated from a life table into parameters for a stage-structured population model has not been assessed comprehensively. The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of methods for such conversions using simulated life histories of organisms. The underlying models incorporate various types of life history and true population growth rates of varying levels. The performance was measured by comparing differences in λ and the generation time calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, age-structured population matrices, and several stage-structured population matrices that were obtained by applying different conversion methods. The results show that the discretization of age introduces only small bias in λ or generation time. Similarly, assuming a fixed age of maturation at the mean age of maturation does not introduce much bias. However, aggregating age-specific survival rates into a stage-specific survival rate and estimating a stage-transition rate can introduce substantial bias depending on the organism’s life history type and the true values of λ. In order to aggregate survival rates, the use of the weighted arithmetic mean was the most robust method for estimating λ. Here, the weights are given by survivorship curve after discounting with λ. To estimate a stage-transition rate, matching the proportion of individuals transitioning, with λ used for discounting the rate, was the best approach. However, stage-structured models performed poorly in estimating generation time, regardless of the methods used for constructing the models. Based on the results, we recommend using an age-structured matrix population model or the Euler-Lotka equation for calculating λ and generation time when life table data are available. Then, these age-structured vital rates can be converted into a stage-structured model for further analyses. PMID:29085763

Constructing stage-structured matrix population models from life tables: comparison of methods.

PubMed

Fujiwara, Masami; Diaz-Lopez, Jasmin

2017-01-01

A matrix population model is a convenient tool for summarizing per capita survival and reproduction rates (collectively vital rates) of a population and can be used for calculating an asymptotic finite population growth rate ( λ ) and generation time. These two pieces of information can be used for determining the status of a threatened species. The use of stage-structured population models has increased in recent years, and the vital rates in such models are often estimated using a life table analysis. However, potential bias introduced when converting age-structured vital rates estimated from a life table into parameters for a stage-structured population model has not been assessed comprehensively. The objective of this study was to investigate the performance of methods for such conversions using simulated life histories of organisms. The underlying models incorporate various types of life history and true population growth rates of varying levels. The performance was measured by comparing differences in λ and the generation time calculated using the Euler-Lotka equation, age-structured population matrices, and several stage-structured population matrices that were obtained by applying different conversion methods. The results show that the discretization of age introduces only small bias in λ or generation time. Similarly, assuming a fixed age of maturation at the mean age of maturation does not introduce much bias. However, aggregating age-specific survival rates into a stage-specific survival rate and estimating a stage-transition rate can introduce substantial bias depending on the organism's life history type and the true values of λ . In order to aggregate survival rates, the use of the weighted arithmetic mean was the most robust method for estimating λ . Here, the weights are given by survivorship curve after discounting with λ . To estimate a stage-transition rate, matching the proportion of individuals transitioning, with λ used for discounting the rate, was the best approach. However, stage-structured models performed poorly in estimating generation time, regardless of the methods used for constructing the models. Based on the results, we recommend using an age-structured matrix population model or the Euler-Lotka equation for calculating λ and generation time when life table data are available. Then, these age-structured vital rates can be converted into a stage-structured model for further analyses.

Structural reliability analysis of laminated CMC components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Duffy, Stephen F.; Palko, Joseph L.; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1991-01-01

For laminated ceramic matrix composite (CMC) materials to realize their full potential in aerospace applications, design methods and protocols are a necessity. The time independent failure response of these materials is focussed on and a reliability analysis is presented associated with the initiation of matrix cracking. A public domain computer algorithm is highlighted that was coupled with the laminate analysis of a finite element code and which serves as a design aid to analyze structural components made from laminated CMC materials. Issues relevant to the effect of the size of the component are discussed, and a parameter estimation procedure is presented. The estimation procedure allows three parameters to be calculated from a failure population that has an underlying Weibull distribution.

Continuous and discrete extreme climatic events affecting the dynamics of a high-arctic reindeer population.

PubMed

Chan, Kung-Sik; Mysterud, Atle; Øritsland, Nils Are; Severinsen, Torbjørn; Stenseth, Nils Chr

2005-10-01

Climate at northern latitudes are currently changing both with regard to the mean and the temporal variability at any given site, increasing the frequency of extreme events such as cold and warm spells. Here we use a conceptually new modelling approach with two different dynamic terms of the climatic effects on a Svalbard reindeer population (the Brøggerhalvøya population) which underwent an extreme icing event ("locked pastures") with 80% reduction in population size during one winter (1993/94). One term captures the continuous and linear effect depending upon the Arctic Oscillation and another the discrete (rare) "event" process. The introduction of an "event" parameter describing the discrete extreme winter resulted in a more parsimonious model. Such an approach may be useful in strongly age-structured ungulate populations, with young and very old individuals being particularly prone to mortality factors during adverse conditions (resulting in a population structure that differs before and after extreme climatic events). A simulation study demonstrates that our approach is able to properly detect the ecological effects of such extreme climate events.

Evolutionary optimization with data collocation for reverse engineering of biological networks.

PubMed

Tsai, Kuan-Yao; Wang, Feng-Sheng

2005-04-01

Modern experimental biology is moving away from analyses of single elements to whole-organism measurements. Such measured time-course data contain a wealth of information about the structure and dynamic of the pathway or network. The dynamic modeling of the whole systems is formulated as a reverse problem that requires a well-suited mathematical model and a very efficient computational method to identify the model structure and parameters. Numerical integration for differential equations and finding global parameter values are still two major challenges in this field of the parameter estimation of nonlinear dynamic biological systems. We compare three techniques of parameter estimation for nonlinear dynamic biological systems. In the proposed scheme, the modified collocation method is applied to convert the differential equations to the system of algebraic equations. The observed time-course data are then substituted into the algebraic system equations to decouple system interactions in order to obtain the approximate model profiles. Hybrid differential evolution (HDE) with population size of five is able to find a global solution. The method is not only suited for parameter estimation but also can be applied for structure identification. The solution obtained by HDE is then used as the starting point for a local search method to yield the refined estimates.

Accuracy in parameter estimation for targeted effects in structural equation modeling: sample size planning for narrow confidence intervals.

PubMed

Lai, Keke; Kelley, Ken

2011-06-01

In addition to evaluating a structural equation model (SEM) as a whole, often the model parameters are of interest and confidence intervals for those parameters are formed. Given a model with a good overall fit, it is entirely possible for the targeted effects of interest to have very wide confidence intervals, thus giving little information about the magnitude of the population targeted effects. With the goal of obtaining sufficiently narrow confidence intervals for the model parameters of interest, sample size planning methods for SEM are developed from the accuracy in parameter estimation approach. One method plans for the sample size so that the expected confidence interval width is sufficiently narrow. An extended procedure ensures that the obtained confidence interval will be no wider than desired, with some specified degree of assurance. A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted that verified the effectiveness of the procedures in realistic situations. The methods developed have been implemented in the MBESS package in R so that they can be easily applied by researchers. © 2011 American Psychological Association

Combining the ‘bottom up’ and ‘top down’ approaches in pharmacokinetic modelling: fitting PBPK models to observed clinical data

PubMed Central

Tsamandouras, Nikolaos; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin; Aarons, Leon

2015-01-01

Pharmacokinetic models range from being entirely exploratory and empirical, to semi-mechanistic and ultimately complex physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. This choice is conditional on the modelling purpose as well as the amount and quality of the available data. The main advantage of PBPK models is that they can be used to extrapolate outside the studied population and experimental conditions. The trade-off for this advantage is a complex system of differential equations with a considerable number of model parameters. When these parameters cannot be informed from in vitro or in silico experiments they are usually optimized with respect to observed clinical data. Parameter estimation in complex models is a challenging task associated with many methodological issues which are discussed here with specific recommendations. Concepts such as structural and practical identifiability are described with regards to PBPK modelling and the value of experimental design and sensitivity analyses is sketched out. Parameter estimation approaches are discussed, while we also highlight the importance of not neglecting the covariance structure between model parameters and the uncertainty and population variability that is associated with them. Finally the possibility of using model order reduction techniques and minimal semi-mechanistic models that retain the physiological-mechanistic nature only in the parts of the model which are relevant to the desired modelling purpose is emphasized. Careful attention to all the above issues allows us to integrate successfully information from in vitro or in silico experiments together with information deriving from observed clinical data and develop mechanistically sound models with clinical relevance. PMID:24033787

Non-parametric cell-based photometric proxies for galaxy morphology: methodology and application to the morphologically defined star formation-stellar mass relation of spiral galaxies in the local universe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grootes, M. W.; Tuffs, R. J.; Popescu, C. C.; Robotham, A. S. G.; Seibert, M.; Kelvin, L. S.

2014-02-01

We present a non-parametric cell-based method of selecting highly pure and largely complete samples of spiral galaxies using photometric and structural parameters as provided by standard photometric pipelines and simple shape fitting algorithms. The performance of the method is quantified for different parameter combinations, using purely human-based classifications as a benchmark. The discretization of the parameter space allows a markedly superior selection than commonly used proxies relying on a fixed curve or surface of separation. Moreover, we find structural parameters derived using passbands longwards of the g band and linked to older stellar populations, especially the stellar mass surface density μ* and the r-band effective radius re, to perform at least equally well as parameters more traditionally linked to the identification of spirals by means of their young stellar populations, e.g. UV/optical colours. In particular, the distinct bimodality in the parameter μ*, consistent with expectations of different evolutionary paths for spirals and ellipticals, represents an often overlooked yet powerful parameter in differentiating between spiral and non-spiral/elliptical galaxies. We use the cell-based method for the optical parameter set including re in combination with the Sérsic index n and the i-band magnitude to investigate the intrinsic specific star formation rate-stellar mass relation (ψ*-M*) for a morphologically defined volume-limited sample of local Universe spiral galaxies. The relation is found to be well described by ψ _* ∝ M_*^{-0.5} over the range of 109.5 ≤ M* ≤ 1011 M⊙ with a mean interquartile range of 0.4 dex. This is somewhat steeper than previous determinations based on colour-selected samples of star-forming galaxies, primarily due to the inclusion in the sample of red quiescent discs.

Population genetic structure, genetic diversity, and natural history of the South American species of Nothofagus subgenus Lophozonia (Nothofagaceae) inferred from nuclear microsatellite data

PubMed Central

Vergara, Rodrigo; Gitzendanner, Matthew A; Soltis, Douglas E; Soltis, Pamela S

2014-01-01

The effect of glaciation on the levels and patterns of genetic variation has been well studied in the Northern Hemisphere. However, although glaciation has undoubtedly shaped the genetic structure of plants in the Southern Hemisphere, fewer studies have characterized the effect, and almost none of them using microsatellites. Particularly, complex patterns of genetic structure might be expected in areas such as the Andes, where both latitudinal and altitudinal glacial advance and retreat have molded modern plant communities. We therefore studied the population genetics of three closely related, hybridizing species of Nothofagus (N. obliqua, N. alpina, and N. glauca, all of subgenus Lophozonia; Nothofagaceae) from Chile. To estimate population genetic parameters and infer the influence of the last ice age on the spatial and genetic distribution of these species, we examined and analyzed genetic variability at seven polymorphic microsatellite DNA loci in 640 individuals from 40 populations covering most of the ranges of these species in Chile. Populations showed no significant inbreeding and exhibited relatively high levels of genetic diversity (HE = 0.502–0.662) and slight, but significant, genetic structure (RST = 8.7–16.0%). However, in N. obliqua, the small amount of genetic structure was spatially organized into three well-defined latitudinal groups. Our data may also suggest some introgression of N. alpina genes into N. obliqua in the northern populations. These results allowed us to reconstruct the influence of the last ice age on the genetic structure of these species, suggesting several centers of genetic diversity for N. obliqua and N. alpina, in agreement with the multiple refugia hypothesis. PMID:25360279

Phase Transition for the Maki-Thompson Rumour Model on a Small-World Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agliari, Elena; Pachon, Angelica; Rodriguez, Pablo M.; Tavani, Flavia

2017-11-01

We consider the Maki-Thompson model for the stochastic propagation of a rumour within a population. In this model the population is made up of "spreaders", "ignorants" and "stiflers"; any spreader attempts to pass the rumour to the other individuals via pair-wise interactions and in case the other individual is an ignorant, it becomes a spreader, while in the other two cases the initiating spreader turns into a stifler. In a finite population the process will eventually reach an equilibrium situation where individuals are either stiflers or ignorants. We extend the original hypothesis of homogenously mixed population by allowing for a small-world network embedding the model, in such a way that interactions occur only between nearest-neighbours. This structure is realized starting from a k-regular ring and by inserting, in the average, c additional links in such a way that k and c are tuneable parameters for the population architecture. We prove that this system exhibits a transition between regimes of localization (where the final number of stiflers is at most logarithmic in the population size) and propagation (where the final number of stiflers grows algebraically with the population size) at a finite value of the network parameter c. A quantitative estimate for the critical value of c is obtained via extensive numerical simulations.

Potential population-level effects of increased haulout-related mortality of Pacific walrus calves

USGS Publications Warehouse

Udevitz, Mark S.; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Garlich-Miller, Joel L.; Quakenbush, Lori T.; Snyder, Jonathan A.

2013-01-01

Availability of summer sea ice has been decreasing in the Chukchi Sea during recent decades, and increasing numbers of Pacific walruses have begun using coastal haulouts in late summer during years when sea ice retreats beyond the continental shelf. Calves and yearlings are particularly susceptible to being crushed during disturbance events that cause the herd to panic and stampede at these large haulouts, but the potential population-level effects of this mortality are unknown. We used recent harvest data, along with previous assumptions about demographic parameters for this population, to estimate female population size and structure in 2009 and project these numbers forward using a range of assumptions about future harvests and haulout-related mortality that might result from increased use of coastal haulouts during late summer. We found that if demographic parameters were held constant, the levels of harvest that occurred during 1990–2008 would have allowed the population to grow during that period. Our projections indicate, however, that an increase in haulout-related mortality affecting only calves has a greater effect on the population than an equivalent increase in harvest-related mortality distributed among all age classes. Therefore, disturbance-related mortality of calves at coastal haulouts may have relatively important population consequences.

Mexican mestizo population sub-structure: effects on genetic and forensic statistical parameters.

PubMed

Noris, Gino; Santana, Carla; Meraz-Ríos, Marco Antonio; de Lourdes Munoz, María; Majluf-Cruz, Abraham; Magaña, Jonathan J; Granados, Julio; Quezada, Rosa; Revilla, María Cristina; Martínez-Salas, Sergio; Xihuitl, Salvador; Martínez de la Escalera, Gonzalo; Díaz-Badillo, Alvaro; Calderon-Aranda, Emma S; Gómez, Rocío

2012-12-01

Since Mexican mestizos are an admixed population, it is necessary to determine the effects that the substructure of the population has on genetic and forensic parameters. With this aim, a study was performed with 15 STR loci (CODIS plus D2S1338 and D19S433) on 1,640 unrelated Mexican mestizos. We determine allele and genotypic frequencies observing departure from Hardy-Weinberg expectation (12 out of 15 loci, with an excess of homozygotes, Fis > 0), as well as pairs of loci in an apparent linkage disequilibrium (13 of 92 loci). We conducted a test for genetic population stratification, the results show that the Mexican mestizo population is substructured into three subgroups, which are in HW and linkage equilibrium. The combination of the 15 loci in the whole population has high forensic efficiency with the capacity to genetically discriminate one individual in one quintillion (1/10(18)). Our data potentially validates the use of these 15 STR loci to establish forensic identity and parentage testing for legal purposes, and offers a powerful tool for genetic variation analysis. However, given that the population is stratified, we highly recommend applying a correction with the inbreeding coefficient in calculations of paternity and forensic studies to avoid erroneous assumptions.

Simple graph models of information spread in finite populations

PubMed Central

Voorhees, Burton; Ryder, Bergerud

2015-01-01

We consider several classes of simple graphs as potential models for information diffusion in a structured population. These include biases cycles, dual circular flows, partial bipartite graphs and what we call ‘single-link’ graphs. In addition to fixation probabilities, we study structure parameters for these graphs, including eigenvalues of the Laplacian, conductances, communicability and expected hitting times. In several cases, values of these parameters are related, most strongly so for partial bipartite graphs. A measure of directional bias in cycles and circular flows arises from the non-zero eigenvalues of the antisymmetric part of the Laplacian and another measure is found for cycles as the value of the transition probability for which hitting times going in either direction of the cycle are equal. A generalization of circular flow graphs is used to illustrate the possibility of tuning edge weights to match pre-specified values for graph parameters; in particular, we show that generalizations of circular flows can be tuned to have fixation probabilities equal to the Moran probability for a complete graph by tuning vertex temperature profiles. Finally, single-link graphs are introduced as an example of a graph involving a bottleneck in the connection between two components and these are compared to the partial bipartite graphs. PMID:26064661

Dynamics of a spin-boson model with structured spectral density

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurt, Arzu; Eryigit, Resul

2018-05-01

We report the results of a study of the dynamics of a two-state system coupled to an environment with peaked spectral density. An exact analytical expression for the bath correlation function is obtained. Validity range of various approximations to the correlation function for calculating the population difference of the system is discussed as function of tunneling splitting, oscillator frequency, coupling constant, damping rate and the temperature of the bath. An exact expression for the population difference, for a limited range of parameters, is derived.

Spatial structure and nutrients promote invasion of IncP-1 plasmids in bacterial populations

PubMed Central

Fox, Randal E; Zhong, Xue; Krone, Stephen M; Top, Eva M

2008-01-01

In spite of the importance of plasmids in bacterial adaptation, we have a poor understanding of their dynamics. It is not known if or how plasmids persist in and spread through (invade) a bacterial population when there is no selection for plasmid-encoded traits. Moreover, the differences in dynamics between spatially structured and mixed populations are poorly understood. Through a joint experimental/theoretical approach, we tested the hypothesis that self-transmissible IncP-1 plasmids can invade a bacterial population in the absence of selection when initially very rare, but only in spatially structured habitats and when nutrients are regularly replenished. Using protocols that differed in the degree of spatial structure and nutrient levels, the invasiveness of plasmid pB10 in Escherichia coli was monitored during at least 15 days, with an initial fraction of plasmid-bearing (p+) cells as low as 10−7. To further explore the mechanisms underlying plasmid dynamics, we developed a spatially explicit mathematical model. When cells were grown on filters and transferred to fresh medium daily, the p+ fraction increased to 13%, whereas almost complete invasion occurred when the population structure was disturbed daily. The plasmid was unable to invade in liquid. When carbon source levels were lower or not replenished, plasmid invasion was hampered. Simulations of the mathematical model closely matched the experimental results and produced estimates of the effects of alternative experimental parameters. This allowed us to isolate the likely mechanisms most responsible for the observations. In conclusion, spatial structure and nutrient availability can be key determinants in the invasiveness of plasmids. PMID:18528415

Phylogeography on the rocks: The contribution of current and historical factors in shaping the genetic structure of Chthamalus montagui (Crustacea, Cirripedia).

PubMed

Pannacciulli, Federica G; Maltagliati, Ferruccio; de Guttry, Christian; Achituv, Yair

2017-01-01

The model marine broadcast-spawner barnacle Chthamalus montagui was investigated to understand its genetic structure and quantify levels of population divergence, and to make inference on historical demography in terms of time of divergence and changes in population size. We collected specimens from rocky shores of the north-east Atlantic Ocean (4 locations), Mediterranean Sea (8) and Black Sea (1). The 312 sequences 537 bp) of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I allowed to detect 130 haplotypes. High within-location genetic variability was recorded, with haplotype diversity ranging between h = 0.750 and 0.967. Parameters of genetic divergence, haplotype network and Bayesian assignment analysis were consistent in rejecting the hypothesis of panmixia. C. montagui is genetically structured in three geographically discrete populations, which corresponded to north-eastern Atlantic Ocean, western-central Mediterranean Sea, and Aegean Sea-Black Sea. These populations are separated by two main effective barriers to gene flow located at the Almeria-Oran Front and in correspondence of the Cyclades Islands. According to the 'isolation with migration' model, adjacent population pairs diverged during the early to middle Pleistocene transition, a period in which geological events provoked significant changes in the structure and composition of palaeocommunities. Mismatch distributions, neutrality tests and Bayesian skyline plots showed past population expansions, which started approximately in the Mindel-Riss interglacial, in which ecological conditions were favourable for temperate species and calcium-uptaking marine organisms.

Phylogeography on the rocks: The contribution of current and historical factors in shaping the genetic structure of Chthamalus montagui (Crustacea, Cirripedia)

PubMed Central

Pannacciulli, Federica G.; de Guttry, Christian; Achituv, Yair

2017-01-01

The model marine broadcast-spawner barnacle Chthamalus montagui was investigated to understand its genetic structure and quantify levels of population divergence, and to make inference on historical demography in terms of time of divergence and changes in population size. We collected specimens from rocky shores of the north-east Atlantic Ocean (4 locations), Mediterranean Sea (8) and Black Sea (1). The 312 sequences 537 bp) of the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I allowed to detect 130 haplotypes. High within-location genetic variability was recorded, with haplotype diversity ranging between h = 0.750 and 0.967. Parameters of genetic divergence, haplotype network and Bayesian assignment analysis were consistent in rejecting the hypothesis of panmixia. C. montagui is genetically structured in three geographically discrete populations, which corresponded to north-eastern Atlantic Ocean, western-central Mediterranean Sea, and Aegean Sea-Black Sea. These populations are separated by two main effective barriers to gene flow located at the Almeria-Oran Front and in correspondence of the Cyclades Islands. According to the ‘isolation with migration’ model, adjacent population pairs diverged during the early to middle Pleistocene transition, a period in which geological events provoked significant changes in the structure and composition of palaeocommunities. Mismatch distributions, neutrality tests and Bayesian skyline plots showed past population expansions, which started approximately in the Mindel-Riss interglacial, in which ecological conditions were favourable for temperate species and calcium-uptaking marine organisms. PMID:28594840

Does urbanization influence the spatial ecology of Gila monsters in the Sonoran Desert?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kwiatkowski, M.A.; Schuett, G.W.; Repp, R.A.; Nowak, E.M.; Sullivan, B.K.

2008-01-01

To assess whether urbanization influences the spatial ecology of a rare and protected venomous reptilian predator, the Gila monster Heloderma suspectum, we compared home range (HR) size and movement parameters at three sites varying in degree of urbanization in the Sonoran Desert. We predicted that the urban population of H. suspectum would exhibit smaller HRs, avoid human structures and show less movement. Multivariate analysis indicated that males generally exhibited larger HRs and had higher movement rates and activity levels than females at all three sites. Contrary to our predictions, however, HR size and movement parameters did not vary across the sites in relation to the level of urbanization. At the urban site, individuals often crossed narrow roads and regularly used artificial structures as refuges for extended periods. Furthermore, the population sex ratio at the urban site was female-biased, consistent with the expectation that occupation of larger HRs and higher movement rates results in higher mortality for males in urbanized areas. Gila monsters did not appear to alter certain aspects of their spatial ecology in response to low levels of human activity but additional work will be required to assess population viability and possible effects in the long term and with higher levels of urbanization.

Application of Differential Evolutionary Optimization Methodology for Parameter Structure Identification in Groundwater Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, Y.; Nishikawa, T.

2013-12-01

With the increasing complexity of parameter-structure identification (PSI) in groundwater modeling, there is a need for robust, fast, and accurate optimizers in the groundwater-hydrology field. For this work, PSI is defined as identifying parameter dimension, structure, and value. In this study, Voronoi tessellation and differential evolution (DE) are used to solve the optimal PSI problem. Voronoi tessellation is used for automatic parameterization, whereby stepwise regression and the error covariance matrix are used to determine the optimal parameter dimension. DE is a novel global optimizer that can be used to solve nonlinear, nondifferentiable, and multimodal optimization problems. It can be viewed as an improved version of genetic algorithms and employs a simple cycle of mutation, crossover, and selection operations. DE is used to estimate the optimal parameter structure and its associated values. A synthetic numerical experiment of continuous hydraulic conductivity distribution was conducted to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results indicate that DE can identify the global optimum effectively and efficiently. A sensitivity analysis of the control parameters (i.e., the population size, mutation scaling factor, crossover rate, and mutation schemes) was performed to examine their influence on the objective function. The proposed DE was then applied to solve a complex parameter-estimation problem for a small desert groundwater basin in Southern California. Hydraulic conductivity, specific yield, specific storage, fault conductance, and recharge components were estimated simultaneously. Comparison of DE and a traditional gradient-based approach (PEST) shows DE to be more robust and efficient. The results of this work not only provide an alternative for PSI in groundwater models, but also extend DE applications towards solving complex, regional-scale water management optimization problems.

Parallel tagged next-generation sequencing on pooled samples - a new approach for population genetics in ecology and conservation.

PubMed

Zavodna, Monika; Grueber, Catherine E; Gemmell, Neil J

2013-01-01

Next-generation sequencing (NGS) on pooled samples has already been broadly applied in human medical diagnostics and plant and animal breeding. However, thus far it has been only sparingly employed in ecology and conservation, where it may serve as a useful diagnostic tool for rapid assessment of species genetic diversity and structure at the population level. Here we undertake a comprehensive evaluation of the accuracy, practicality and limitations of parallel tagged amplicon NGS on pooled population samples for estimating species population diversity and structure. We obtained 16S and Cyt b data from 20 populations of Leiopelma hochstetteri, a frog species of conservation concern in New Zealand, using two approaches - parallel tagged NGS on pooled population samples and individual Sanger sequenced samples. Data from each approach were then used to estimate two standard population genetic parameters, nucleotide diversity (π) and population differentiation (FST), that enable population genetic inference in a species conservation context. We found a positive correlation between our two approaches for population genetic estimates, showing that the pooled population NGS approach is a reliable, rapid and appropriate method for population genetic inference in an ecological and conservation context. Our experimental design also allowed us to identify both the strengths and weaknesses of the pooled population NGS approach and outline some guidelines and suggestions that might be considered when planning future projects.

Analysis of genetic diversity in Bolivian llama populations using microsatellites.

PubMed

Barreta, J; Gutiérrez-Gil, B; Iñiguez, V; Romero, F; Saavedra, V; Chiri, R; Rodríguez, T; Arranz, J J

2013-08-01

South American camelids (SACs) have a major role in the maintenance and potential future of rural Andean human populations. More than 60% of the 3.7 million llamas living worldwide are found in Bolivia. Due to the lack of studies focusing on genetic diversity in Bolivian llamas, this analysis investigates both the genetic diversity and structure of 12 regional groups of llamas that span the greater part of the range of distribution for this species in Bolivia. The analysis of 42 microsatellite markers in the considered regional groups showed that, in general, there were high levels of polymorphism (a total of 506 detected alleles; average PIC across per marker: 0.66), which are comparable with those reported for other populations of domestic SACs. The estimated diversity parameters indicated that there was high intrapopulational genetic variation (average number of alleles and average expected heterozygosity per marker: 12.04 and 0.68, respectively) and weak genetic differentiation among populations (FST range: 0.003-0.052). In agreement with these estimates, Bolivian llamas showed a weak genetic structure and an intense gene flow between all the studied regional groups, which is due to the exchange of reproductive males between the different flocks. Interestingly, the groups for which the largest pairwise FST estimates were observed, Sud Lípez and Nor Lípez, showed a certain level of genetic differentiation that is probably due to the pattern of geographic isolation and limited communication infrastructures of these southern localities. Overall, the population parameters reported here may serve as a reference when establishing conservation policies that address Bolivian llama populations. © 2012 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Inference of population structure and demographic history in Taxodium distichum, a coniferous tree in North America, based on amplicon sequence analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ikezaki, Yuka; Suyama, Yoshihisa; Middleton, Beth A.; Tsumura, Yoshihiko; Teshima, Kousuke; Tachida, Hidenori; Kusumi, Junko

2016-01-01

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: Studies of natural genetic variation can elucidate the genetic basis of phenotypic variation and the past population structure of species. Our study species, Taxodium distichum, is a unique conifer that inhabits the flood plains and swamps of North America. Morphological and ecological differences in two varieties, T. distichum var. distichum (bald cypress) and T. distichum var. imbricarium (pond cypress), are well known, but little is known about the level of genetic differentiation between the varieties and the demographic history of local populations.METHODS: We analyzed nucleotide polymorphisms at 47 nuclear loci from 96 individuals collected from the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (MRAV), and Gulf Coastal populations in Texas, Louisiana, and Florida using high-throughput DNA sequencing. Standard population genetic statistics were calculated, and demographic parameters were estimated using a composite-likelihood approach.KEY RESULTS: Taxodium distichum in North America can be divided into at least three genetic groups, bald cypress in the MRAV and Texas, bald cypress in Florida, and pond cypress in Florida. The levels of genetic differentiation among the groups were low but significant. Several loci showed the signatures of positive selection, which might be responsible for local adaptation or varietal differentiation.CONCLUSIONS: Bald cypress was genetically differentiated into two geographical groups, and the boundary was located between the MRAV and Florida. This differentiation could be explained by population expansion from east to west. Despite the overlap of the two varieties’ ranges, they were genetically differentiated in Florida. The estimated demographic parameters suggested that pond cypress split from bald cypress during the late Miocene.

Evaluating the genetic impact of South and Southeast Asia on the peopling of Bangladesh.

PubMed

Sultana, Gazi Nurun Nahar; Sharif, Mohd Istiaq; Asaduzzaman, Md; Chaubey, Gyaneshwer

2015-11-01

Despite rapidly growing understandings and dependency on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), highly variable autosomal short tandem repeats (STRs) are still regarded as the most established method to differentiate individuals at forensic level. Here with large number of various ethnic groups we undertook this study to reveal the genetic structure of the most densely populated part of South Asia i.e. the Bangladesh. The purpose of this work was to estimate population parameters based on the allele frequencies obtained for 15 polymorphic autosomal STR loci investigated in caste and tribal populations from Bangladesh (n=706). We compared the results in a broader context by merging 24 different populations of Asia to pertain their affinity. Various statistical analyses suggested a clear cut demarcation of tribal and non-tribal in Bangladesh. Moreover, beside the phylogenetic structure of the studied populations, it is found that the mean heterozygosity value was highest among the populations of Bangladesh, likely because of gene flow from different directions. However, Tonchangya, Adi and Khumi showed sign of genetic isolation and reduced diversity, possibly as a result of genetic drift and/or strong founder effects working on small endogamous populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using global sensitivity analysis of demographic models for ecological impact assessment.

PubMed

Aiello-Lammens, Matthew E; Akçakaya, H Resit

2017-02-01

Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely used to assess population-level impacts of environmental changes on species. When combined with sensitivity analysis, PVA yields insights into the effects of parameter and model structure uncertainty. This helps researchers prioritize efforts for further data collection so that model improvements are efficient and helps managers prioritize conservation and management actions. Usually, sensitivity is analyzed by varying one input parameter at a time and observing the influence that variation has over model outcomes. This approach does not account for interactions among parameters. Global sensitivity analysis (GSA) overcomes this limitation by varying several model inputs simultaneously. Then, regression techniques allow measuring the importance of input-parameter uncertainties. In many conservation applications, the goal of demographic modeling is to assess how different scenarios of impact or management cause changes in a population. This is challenging because the uncertainty of input-parameter values can be confounded with the effect of impacts and management actions. We developed a GSA method that separates model outcome uncertainty resulting from parameter uncertainty from that resulting from projected ecological impacts or simulated management actions, effectively separating the 2 main questions that sensitivity analysis asks. We applied this method to assess the effects of predicted sea-level rise on Snowy Plover (Charadrius nivosus). A relatively small number of replicate models (approximately 100) resulted in consistent measures of variable importance when not trying to separate the effects of ecological impacts from parameter uncertainty. However, many more replicate models (approximately 500) were required to separate these effects. These differences are important to consider when using demographic models to estimate ecological impacts of management actions. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

[Modern principles of the geriatric analysis in medicine].

PubMed

Volobuev, A N; Zaharova, N O; Romanchuk, N P; Romanov, D V; Romanchuk, P I; Adyshirin-Zade, K A

2016-01-01

The offered methodological principles of the geriatric analysis in medicine enables to plan economic parameters of social protection of the population, necessary amount of medical help financing, to define a structure of the qualified medical personnel training. It is shown that personal health and cognitive longevity of the person depend on the adequate system geriatric analysis and use of biological parameters monitoring in time. That allows estimate efficiency of the combined individual treatment. The geriatric analysis and in particular its genetic-mathematical component aimed at reliability and objectivity of an estimation of the person life expectancy in the country and in region due to the account of influence of mutagen factors as on a gene of the person during his live, and on a population as a whole.

Appropriate evidence sources for populating decision analytic models within health technology assessment (HTA): a systematic review of HTA manuals and health economic guidelines.

PubMed

Zechmeister-Koss, Ingrid; Schnell-Inderst, Petra; Zauner, Günther

2014-04-01

An increasing number of evidence sources are relevant for populating decision analytic models. What is needed is detailed methodological advice on which type of data is to be used for what type of model parameter. We aim to identify standards in health technology assessment manuals and economic (modeling) guidelines on appropriate evidence sources and on the role different types of data play within a model. Documents were identified via a call among members of the International Network of Agencies for Health Technology Assessment and by hand search. We included documents from Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand as well as transnational guidelines written in English or German. We systematically summarized in a narrative manner information on appropriate evidence sources for model parameters, their advantages and limitations, data identification methods, and data quality issues. A large variety of evidence sources for populating models are mentioned in the 28 documents included. They comprise research- and non-research-based sources. Valid and less appropriate sources are identified for informing different types of model parameters, such as clinical effect size, natural history of disease, resource use, unit costs, and health state utility values. Guidelines do not provide structured and detailed advice on this issue. The article does not include information from guidelines in languages other than English or German, and the information is not tailored to specific modeling techniques. The usability of guidelines and manuals for modeling could be improved by addressing the issue of evidence sources in a more structured and comprehensive format.

Mutation rates among RNA viruses

PubMed Central

Drake, John W.; Holland, John J.

1999-01-01

The rate of spontaneous mutation is a key parameter in modeling the genetic structure and evolution of populations. The impact of the accumulated load of mutations and the consequences of increasing the mutation rate are important in assessing the genetic health of populations. Mutation frequencies are among the more directly measurable population parameters, although the information needed to convert them into mutation rates is often lacking. A previous analysis of mutation rates in RNA viruses (specifically in riboviruses rather than retroviruses) was constrained by the quality and quantity of available measurements and by the lack of a specific theoretical framework for converting mutation frequencies into mutation rates in this group of organisms. Here, we describe a simple relation between ribovirus mutation frequencies and mutation rates, apply it to the best (albeit far from satisfactory) available data, and observe a central value for the mutation rate per genome per replication of μg ≈ 0.76. (The rate per round of cell infection is twice this value or about 1.5.) This value is so large, and ribovirus genomes are so informationally dense, that even a modest increase extinguishes the population. PMID:10570172

The effect of seasonal harvesting on stage-structured population models.

PubMed

Tang, Sanyi; Chen, Lansun

2004-04-01

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. We propose an exploited single-species model with stage structure for the dynamics in a fish population for which births occur in a single pulse once per time period. Since birth pulse populations are often characterized with a discrete time dynamical system determined by its Poincaré map, we explore the consequences of harvest timing to equilibrium population sizes under seasonal dependence and obtain threshold conditions for their stability, and show that the timing of harvesting has a strong impact on the persistence of the fish population, on the volume of mature fish stock and on the maximum annual-sustainable yield. Moreover, our results imply that the population can sustain much higher harvest rates if the mature fish is removed as early in the season (after the birth pulse) as possible. Further, the effects of harvesting effort and harvest timing on the dynamical complexity are also investigated. Bifurcation diagrams are constructed with the birth rate (or harvesting effort or harvest timing) as the bifurcation parameter, and these are observed to display rich structure, including chaotic bands with periodic windows, pitch-fork and tangent bifurcations, non-unique dynamics (meaning that several attractors coexist) and attractor crisis. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that makes the dynamical behavior more complex.

Mind the gut: genomic insights to population divergence and gut microbial composition of two marine keystone species.

PubMed

Fietz, Katharina; Rye Hintze, Christian Olaf; Skovrind, Mikkel; Kjærgaard Nielsen, Tue; Limborg, Morten T; Krag, Marcus A; Palsbøll, Per J; Hestbjerg Hansen, Lars; Rask Møller, Peter; Gilbert, M Thomas P

2018-05-02

Deciphering the mechanisms governing population genetic divergence and local adaptation across heterogeneous environments is a central theme in marine ecology and conservation. While population divergence and ecological adaptive potential are classically viewed at the genetic level, it has recently been argued that their microbiomes may also contribute to population genetic divergence. We explored whether this might be plausible along the well-described environmental gradient of the Baltic Sea in two species of sand lance (Ammodytes tobianus and Hyperoplus lanceolatus). Specifically, we assessed both their population genetic and gut microbial composition variation and investigated not only which environmental parameters correlate with the observed variation, but whether host genome also correlates with microbiome variation. We found a clear genetic structure separating the high-salinity North Sea from the low-salinity Baltic Sea sand lances. The observed genetic divergence was not simply a function of isolation by distance, but correlated with environmental parameters, such as salinity, sea surface temperature, and, in the case of A. tobianus, possibly water microbiota. Furthermore, we detected two distinct genetic groups in Baltic A. tobianus that might represent sympatric spawning types. Investigation of possible drivers of gut microbiome composition variation revealed that host species identity was significantly correlated with the microbial community composition of the gut. A potential influence of host genetic factors on gut microbiome composition was further confirmed by the results of a constrained analysis of principal coordinates. The host genetic component was among the parameters that best explain observed variation in gut microbiome composition. Our findings have relevance for the population structure of two commercial species but also provide insights into potentially relevant genomic and microbial factors with regards to sand lance adaptation across the North Sea-Baltic Sea environmental gradient. Furthermore, our findings support the hypothesis that host genetics may play a role in regulating the gut microbiome at both the interspecific and intraspecific levels. As sequencing costs continue to drop, we anticipate that future studies that include full genome and microbiome sequencing will be able to explore the full relationship and its potential adaptive implications for these species.

Modeling metapopulation dynamics for single species of seabirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Buckley, P.A.; Downer, R.; McCullough, D.R.; Barrett, R.H.

1992-01-01

Seabirds share many characteristics setting them apart from other birds. Importantly, they breed more or less obligatorily in local clusters of colonies that can move regularly from site to site, and they routinely exchange breeders. The properties of such metapopulations have only recently begun to be examined, often with models that are occupancy-based (using only colony presence or absence data) and deterministic (using single, empirically determined values for each of several population biology parameters). Some recent models are now frequency-based (using actual population sizes at each site), as well as stochastic (randomly varying critical parameters between biologically realistic limits), yielding better estimates of the behavior of future populations. Using two such models designed to quantify relative risks of population changes under different future scenarios (RAMAS/stage and RAMAS/space), we have examined probable future populations dynamics for three hypothetical seabirds -- an albatross, a cormorant, and a tern. With real parameters and ranges of values we alternatively modelled each species with and without density dependence, as well as with their numbers in a single, large colony, or in many smaller ones, distributed evenly or lognormally. We produced a series of species-typical lines for different population risks over the 50 years we simulated. We call these curves Instantaneous Threat Assessments (ITAs), and their shapes mirror the varying life history characteristics of our three species. We also demonstrated (by a process known as sensitivity analysis) that the most important parameters determining future population fates of all three species were correlation of mean growth rate among colonies; dispersal rate of present and future breeders; subadult survivorship; and the number of subpopulations (=colonies) - in roughly that descending order of importance. In addition, density dependence was found to markedly alter ITA line shape and position, dramatically in the tern. Finally, we show that for each of our three seabirds, a substantial reduction in the risk of the entire population's going to extinction was provided by a metapopulation (i.e. colonial) breeding structure -- thus comfortably confirming what avian ecologists have long known but about which population modellers are somtimes still unsure.

Inference of Ancestry in Forensic Analysis II: Analysis of Genetic Data.

PubMed

Santos, Carla; Phillips, Chris; Gomez-Tato, A; Alvarez-Dios, J; Carracedo, Ángel; Lareu, Maria Victoria

2016-01-01

Three approaches applicable to the analysis of forensic ancestry-informative marker data-STRUCTURE, principal component analysis, and the Snipper Bayesian classification system-are reviewed. Detailed step-by-step guidance is provided for adjusting parameter settings in STRUCTURE with particular regard to their effect when differentiating populations. Several enhancements to the Snipper online forensic classification portal are described, highlighting the added functionality they bring to particular aspects of ancestry-informative SNP analysis in a forensic context.

[EEG correlates of geno-phenotypical features of the brain development in children of the native and newcomers' population of the Russian North-East].

PubMed

Soroko, S I; Bekshaev, S S; Rozhkov, V P

2012-01-01

Traditional and original methods of EEG analysis were used to study the brain electrical activity maturation in 156 children and adolescents from 7 to 17 years old who represented the native (Koryaks and Evenks) and newcomers' populations living in severe climatic and geographic conditions of the Russian North-East. New data revealing age-, sex- and ethnic-related features in quantitative EEG parameters are presented. Markers are obtained that characterize alterations in the structure of interaction between different EEG rhythms. The results demonstrate age-dependent transformation of this structure separated in time for both different cortical areas and different EEG frequency bands. These alterations show time lag from 2 to 3 years in children of native population compared to the newcomers. The revealed differences are assumed to reflect geno-phenotypical features of morpho-functional CNS development in children of the native and newcomers' population that depend on strong adaptation tension for extreme environmental conditions.

Spatial capture-recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Graves, Tabitha A.

2013-01-01

Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on “ecological distance,” i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture–recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture–recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

Spatial capture--recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity.

PubMed

Royle, J Andrew; Chandler, Richard B; Gazenski, Kimberly D; Graves, Tabitha A

2013-02-01

Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture--recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on "ecological distance," i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture-recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture-recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

Evidence of sustained populations of a small reef fish on artificial structures. Does depth affect production on artificial reefs?

PubMed

Fowler, A M; Booth, D J

2012-03-01

The length frequencies and age structures of resident Pseudanthias rubrizonatus (n = 407), a small protogynous serranid, were measured at four isolated artificial structures on the continental shelf of north-western Australia between June and August 2008, to determine whether these structures supported full (complete size and age-structured) populations of this species. The artificial structures were located in depths between 82 and 135 m, and growth rates of juveniles and adults, and body condition of adults, were compared among structures to determine the effect of depth on potential production. All life-history stages, including recently settled juveniles, females and terminal males, of P. rubrizonatus were caught, ranging in standard length (L(s)) from 16·9 to 96·5 mm. Presumed ages estimated from whole and sectioned otoliths ranged between 22 days and 5 years, and parameter ±s.e. estimates of the von Bertalanffy growth model were L(∞) = 152 ± 34 mm, k = 0·15(±0·05) and t(0) = -1·15(±0·15). Estimated annual growth rates were similar between shallow and deep artificial structures; however, otolith lengths and recent growth of juveniles differed among individual structures, irrespective of depth. The artificial structures therefore sustained full populations of P. rubrizonatus, from recently settled juveniles through to adults; however, confirmation of the maximum age attainable for the species is required from natural populations. Depth placement of artificial reefs may not affect the production of fish species with naturally wide depth ranges. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2012 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Phylodynamics with Migration: A Computational Framework to Quantify Population Structure from Genomic Data.

PubMed

Kühnert, Denise; Stadler, Tanja; Vaughan, Timothy G; Drummond, Alexei J

2016-08-01

When viruses spread, outbreaks can be spawned in previously unaffected regions. Depending on the time and mode of introduction, each regional outbreak can have its own epidemic dynamics. The migration and phylodynamic processes are often intertwined and need to be taken into account when analyzing temporally and spatially structured virus data. In this article, we present a fully probabilistic approach for the joint reconstruction of phylodynamic history in structured populations (such as geographic structure) based on a multitype birth-death process. This approach can be used to quantify the spread of a pathogen in a structured population. Changes in epidemic dynamics through time within subpopulations are incorporated through piecewise constant changes in transmission parameters.We analyze a global human influenza H3N2 virus data set from a geographically structured host population to demonstrate how seasonal dynamics can be inferred simultaneously with the phylogeny and migration process. Our results suggest that the main migration path among the northern, tropical, and southern region represented in the sample analyzed here is the one leading from the tropics to the northern region. Furthermore, the time-dependent transmission dynamics between and within two HIV risk groups, heterosexuals and injecting drug users, in the Latvian HIV epidemic are investigated. Our analyses confirm that the Latvian HIV epidemic peaking around 2001 was mainly driven by the injecting drug user risk group. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

Interlinkages between bacterial populations dynamics and the operational parameters in a moving bed membrane bioreactor treating urban sewage.

PubMed

Reboleiro-Rivas, P; Martín-Pascual, J; Morillo, J A; Juárez-Jiménez, B; Poyatos, J M; Rodelas, B; González-López, J

2016-01-01

Bacteria are key players in biological wastewater treatments (WWTs), thus a firm knowledge of the bacterial population dynamics is crucial to understand environmental/operational factors affecting the efficiency and stability of the biological depuration process. Unfortunately, little is known about the microbial ecology of the advanced biological WWTs combining suspended biomass (SB) and attached biofilms (AB). This study explored in depth the bacterial community structure and population dynamics in each biomass fraction from a pilot-scale moving bed membrane bioreactor (MBMBR) treating municipal sewage, by means of temperature-gradient gel electrophoresis (TGGE) and 454-pyrosequencing. Eight experimental phases were conducted, combining different carrier filling ratios, hydraulic retention times and concentrations of mixed liquor total suspended solids. The bacterial community, dominated by Proteobacteria (20.9-53.8%) and Actinobacteria (20.6-57.6%), was very similar in both biomass fractions and able to maintain its functional stability under all the operating conditions, ensuring a successful and steady depuration process. Multivariate statistical analysis demonstrated that solids concentration, carrier filling ratio, temperature and organic matter concentration in the influent were the significant factors explaining population dynamics. Bacterial diversity increased as carrier filling ratio increased (from 20% to 35%, v/v), and solids concentration was the main factor triggering the shifts of the community structure. These findings provide new insights on the influence of operational parameters on the biology of the innovative MBMBRs. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of natural populations in the Drosophila melanogaster sigma system II. Northern and central France.

PubMed

Fleuriet, A

1990-01-01

A survey of French natural populations of Drosophila melanogaster has been systematically performed, concerning their status of infection by the sigma virus and the characteristics of viral clones. These investigations, which were not as extensive as those performed in the Languedoc region (Fleuriet et al., 1990) nevertheless give a good representation of the evolution of this system because of the long period involved (almost 20 years). Some trends were observed in all French populations such as (1) a decrease in the high efficiency of transmission by males (which is an important parameter for the viral invading ability); (2) high frequency of a best adapted viral Type. These high frequencies might be due to a recent invasion which is expected to spread to other European populations. However, the frequency of infected flies remained low in northern and central France, unlike in Languedoc. The complexity of this, apparently simple, system of two well-known coevolving organisms should once again be stressed. It is impossible with the known parameters to arrive at a general interpretation of observations made in Languedoc and the rest of France. These data may also throw some light on the structure of French wild populations of D. melanogaster which appear to be subdivided into local populations between which gene flow might be low.

Sensitivity and specificity of eustachian tube function tests in adults.

PubMed

Doyle, William J; Swarts, J Douglas; Banks, Julianne; Casselbrant, Margaretha L; Mandel, Ellen M; Alper, Cuneyt M

2013-07-01

The study demonstrates the utility of eustachian tube (ET) function (ETF) test results for accurately assigning ears to disease state. To determine if ETF tests can identify ears with physician-diagnosed ET dysfunction (ETD) in a mixed population at high sensitivity and specificity and to define the interrelatedness of ETF test parameters. Through use of the forced-response, inflation-deflation, Valsalva, and sniffing tests, ETF was evaluated in 15 control ears of adult subjects after unilateral myringotomy (group 1) and in 23 ears of 19 adult subjects with ventilation tubes inserted for ETD (group 2). Data were analyzed using logistic regression including each parameter independently and then a step-down discriminant analysis including all ETF test parameters to predict group assignment. Factor analysis operating over all parameters was used to explore relatedness. ETF testing. ETF parameters for the forced response, inflation-deflation, Valsalva, and sniffing tests measured in 15 control ears of adult subjects after unilateral myringotomy (group 1) and in 23 ears of 19 adult subjects with ventilation tubes inserted for ETD (group 2). The discriminant analysis identified 4 ETF test parameters (Valsalva, ET opening pressure, dilatory efficiency, and percentage of positive pressure equilibrated) that together correctly assigned ears to group 2 at a sensitivity of 95% and a specificity of 83%. Individual parameters representing the efficiency of ET opening during swallowing showed moderately accurate assignments of ears to their respective groups. Three factors captured approximately 98% of the variance among parameters: the first had negative loadings of the ETF structural parameters; the second had positive loadings of the muscle-assisted ET opening parameters; and the third had negative loadings of the muscle-assisted ET opening parameters and positive loadings of the structural parameters. These results show that ETF tests can correctly assign individual ears to physician-diagnosed ETD with high sensitivity and specificity and that ETF test parameters can be grouped into structural-functional categories.

Stellar Populations in Elliptical Galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angeletti, Lucio; Giannone, Pietro

The R1/n law for the radial surface brightness of elliptical galaxies and the "Best Accretion Model" together with the "Concentration Model" have been combined in order to determine the mass and dynamical structure of largely-populated star systems. Families of models depending on four parameters have been used to fit the observed surface radial profiles of some spectro-photometric indices of a sample of eleven galaxies. We present the best agreements of the spectral index Mg2 with observations for three selected galaxies representative of the full sample. For them we have also computed the spatial distributions of the metal abundances, which are essential to achieve a population synthesis.

Relationship between Serum Uric Acid and Vascular Function and Structure Markers and Gender Difference in a Real-World Population of China-From Beijing Vascular Disease Patients Evaluation Study (BEST) Study.

PubMed

Liu, Huan; Liu, Jinbo; Zhao, Hongwei; Zhou, Yingyan; Li, Lihong; Wang, Hongyu

2018-03-01

The study was done to establish the relationship between serum uric acid (UA) and vascular function and structure parameters including carotid femoral pulse wave velocity (CF-PWV), carotid radial pulse wave velocity (CR-PWV), cardio ankle vascular index (CAVI), ankle brachial index (ABI), and carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), and the gender difference in a real-world population from China. A total of 979 subjects were enrolled (aged 60.86±11.03 years, male 416 and female 563). Value of UA was divided by 100 (UA/100) for analysis. Body mass index (BMI), diastolic blood pressure (DBP), fasting plasma glucose (FPG), UA, and UA/100 were significantly higher in males compared with females (all p＜0.05); pulse pressure (PP), total cholesterol (TC), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) were lower in males than females (all p＜0.05). All vascular parameters including CF-PWV, CR-PWV, CAVI, ABI, and CIMT were higher in males than females (all p＜0.05). Multiple linear regression analysis showed that UA/100 was independently positively linearly correlated with CAVI (B=0.143, p=0.001) and negatively correlated with ABI in the male population (B=－0.012, p=0.020). In people with higher UA, the risk of higher CF-PWV was 1.593 (p＜0.05). 1. All vascular parameters were higher in males than females. There was no gender difference in the relationship between UA and vascular markers except in ABI. 2. UA was independently linearly correlated with CAVI. 3. In people with higher UA level, the risk of higher CF-PWV increased. Therefore, higher UA may influence the vascular function mainly instead of vascular structure.

Modification of a rainfall-runoff model for distributed modeling in a GIS and its validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nyabeze, W. R.

A rainfall-runoff model, which can be inter-faced with a Geographical Information System (GIS) to integrate definition, measurement, calculating parameter values for spatial features, presents considerable advantages. The modification of the GWBasic Wits Rainfall-Runoff Erosion Model (GWBRafler) to enable parameter value estimation in a GIS (GISRafler) is presented in this paper. Algorithms are applied to estimate parameter values reducing the number of input parameters and the effort to populate them. The use of a GIS makes the relationship between parameter estimates and cover characteristics more evident. This paper has been produced as part of research to generalize the GWBRafler on a spatially distributed basis. Modular data structures are assumed and parameter values are weighted relative to the module area and centroid properties. Modifications to the GWBRafler enable better estimation of low flows, which are typical in drought conditions.

Quantifying Adventitious Error in a Covariance Structure as a Random Effect

PubMed Central

Wu, Hao; Browne, Michael W.

2017-01-01

We present an approach to quantifying errors in covariance structures in which adventitious error, identified as the process underlying the discrepancy between the population and the structured model, is explicitly modeled as a random effect with a distribution, and the dispersion parameter of this distribution to be estimated gives a measure of misspecification. Analytical properties of the resultant procedure are investigated and the measure of misspecification is found to be related to the RMSEA. An algorithm is developed for numerical implementation of the procedure. The consistency and asymptotic sampling distributions of the estimators are established under a new asymptotic paradigm and an assumption weaker than the standard Pitman drift assumption. Simulations validate the asymptotic sampling distributions and demonstrate the importance of accounting for the variations in the parameter estimates due to adventitious error. Two examples are also given as illustrations. PMID:25813463

Theoretical Studies on Structures and Relative Stability for Polynitrohexaazaadamantanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Xiao-juan; Xiao, He-ming; Wang, Gui-xiang; Ju, Xue-hai

2006-10-01

The density function theory at the B3LYP/6-31G* level was employed to study the structures, including the total energies (EZPE), the geometries, the oxygen balances (OB100), the dipole moments, of polynitro-hexaazaadamantanes (PNHAAs) and the potential candidates of high energy density compounds (HEDCs). The structural parameters of PNHAAs, such as the the maximum N—NO2 bond length (LBmax), the least N—N Mulliken population (BN—N), the least negative charge on the nitro group (QNO2) and OB100, were studied to predict their relative stability or sensitivity (the easiness for initiating a detonation, high sensitivity means low stability). It was found that the same conclusion was drawn from the four parameters. With the number of nitro groups increasing, the stabilities of these compounds decrease. OB100 failed in identifying the isomers, but the EZPE energy and the dipole moment were considered to give more reliable results for the isomers.

Evolution of a plastic quantitative trait in an age-structured population in a fluctuating environment.

PubMed

Engen, Steinar; Lande, Russell; Saether, Bernt-Erik

2011-10-01

We analyze weak fluctuating selection on a quantitative character in an age-structured population not subject to density regulation. We assume that early in the first year of life before selection, during a critical state of development, environments exert a plastic effect on the phenotype, which remains constant throughout the life of an individual. Age-specific selection on the character affects survival and fecundity, which have intermediate optima subject to temporal environmental fluctuations with directional selection in some age classes as special cases. Weighting individuals by their reproductive value, as suggested by Fisher, we show that the expected response per year in the weighted mean character has the same form as for models with no age structure. Environmental stochasticity generates stochastic fluctuations in the weighted mean character following a first-order autoregressive model with a temporally autocorrelated noise term and stationary variance depending on the amount of phenotypic plasticity. The parameters of the process are simple weighted averages of parameters used to describe age-specific survival and fecundity. The "age-specific selective weights" are related to the stable distribution of reproductive values among age classes. This allows partitioning of the change in the weighted mean character into age-specific components. © 2011 The Author(s). Evolution© 2011 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Higher impact of female than male migration on population structure in large mammals.

PubMed

Tiedemann, R; Hardy, O; Vekemans, X; Milinkovitch, M C

2000-08-01

We simulated large mammal populations using an individual-based stochastic model under various sex-specific migration schemes and life history parameters from the blue whale and the Asian elephant. Our model predicts that genetic structure at nuclear loci is significantly more influenced by female than by male migration. We identified requisite comigration of mother and offspring during gravidity and lactation as the primary cause of this phenomenon. In addition, our model predicts that the common assumption that geographical patterns of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) could be translated into female migration rates (Nmf) will cause biased estimates of maternal gene flow when extensive male migration occurs and male mtDNA haplotypes are included in the analysis.

Spreading speeds for plant populations in landscapes with low environmental variation.

PubMed

Gilbert, Mark A; Gaffney, Eamonn A; Bullock, James M; White, Steven M

2014-12-21

Characterising the spread of biological populations is crucial in responding to both biological invasions and the shifting of habitat under climate change. Spreading speeds can be studied through mathematical models such as the discrete-time integro-difference equation (IDE) framework. The usual approach in implementing IDE models has been to ignore spatial variation in the demographic and dispersal parameters and to assume that these are spatially homogeneous. On the other hand, real landscapes are rarely spatially uniform with environmental variation being very important in determining biological spread. This raises the question of under what circumstances spatial structure need not be modelled explicitly. Recent work has shown that spatial variation can be ignored for the specific case where the scale of landscape variation is much smaller than the spreading population׳s dispersal scale. We consider more general types of landscape, where the spatial scales of environmental variation are arbitrarily large, but the maximum change in environmental parameters is relatively small. We find that the difference between the wave-speeds of populations spreading in a spatially structured periodic landscape and its homogenisation is, in general, proportional to ϵ(2), where ϵ governs the degree of environmental variation. For stochastically generated landscapes we numerically demonstrate that the error decays faster than ϵ. In both cases, this means that for sufficiently small ϵ, the homogeneous approximation is better than might be expected. Hence, in many situations, the precise details of the landscape can be ignored in favour of spatially homogeneous parameters. This means that field ecologists can use the homogeneous IDE as a relatively simple modelling tool--in terms of both measuring parameter values and doing the modelling itself. However, as ϵ increases, this homogeneous approximation loses its accuracy. The change in wave-speed due to the extrinsic (landscape) variation can be positive or negative, which is in contrast to the reduction in wave-speed caused by intrinsic stochasticity. To deal with the loss of accuracy as ϵ increases, we formulate a second-order approximation to the wave-speed for periodic landscapes and compare both approximations against the results of numerical simulation and show that they are both accurate for the range of landscapes considered. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

How Sensitive Are Transdermal Transport Predictions by Microscopic Stratum Corneum Models to Geometric and Transport Parameter Input?

PubMed

Wen, Jessica; Koo, Soh Myoung; Lape, Nancy

2018-02-01

While predictive models of transdermal transport have the potential to reduce human and animal testing, microscopic stratum corneum (SC) model output is highly dependent on idealized SC geometry, transport pathway (transcellular vs. intercellular), and penetrant transport parameters (e.g., compound diffusivity in lipids). Most microscopic models are limited to a simple rectangular brick-and-mortar SC geometry and do not account for variability across delivery sites, hydration levels, and populations. In addition, these models rely on transport parameters obtained from pure theory, parameter fitting to match in vivo experiments, and time-intensive diffusion experiments for each compound. In this work, we develop a microscopic finite element model that allows us to probe model sensitivity to variations in geometry, transport pathway, and hydration level. Given the dearth of experimentally-validated transport data and the wide range in theoretically-predicted transport parameters, we examine the model's response to a variety of transport parameters reported in the literature. Results show that model predictions are strongly dependent on all aforementioned variations, resulting in order-of-magnitude differences in lag times and permeabilities for distinct structure, hydration, and parameter combinations. This work demonstrates that universally predictive models cannot fully succeed without employing experimentally verified transport parameters and individualized SC structures. Copyright © 2018 American Pharmacists Association®. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computational measurement of joint space width and structural parameters in normal hips.

PubMed

Nishii, Takashi; Shiomi, Toshiyuki; Sakai, Takashi; Takao, Masaki; Yoshikawa, Hideki; Sugano, Nobuhiko

2012-05-01

Joint space width (JSW) of hip joints on radiographs in normal population may vary by related factors, but previous investigations were insufficient due to limitations of sources of radiographs, inclusion of subjects with osteoarthritis, and manual measurement techniques. We investigated influential factors on JSW using semiautomatic computational software on pelvic radiographs in asymptomatic subjects without radiological osteoarthritic findings. Global and local JSW at the medial, middle, and lateral compartments, and the hip structural parameters were measured in asymptomatic, normal 150 cases (300 hips), using a customized computational software. Reliability of measurement in global and local JSWs was high with intraobserver reproducibility (intraclass correlation coefficient) ranging from 0.957 to 0.993 and interobserver reproducibility ranging from 0.925 to 0.985. There were significant differences among three local JSWs, with the largest JSW at the lateral compartment. Global and medial local JSWs were significantly larger in the right hip, and global, medial and middle local JSWs were significantly smaller in women. Global and local JSWs were inversely correlated with CE angle and positively correlated with horizontal distance of the head center, but not correlated with body mass index in men and women. They were positively correlated with age and inversely correlated with vertical distance of the head center only in men. There were interindividual variations of JSW in normal population, depending on sites of the weight-bearing area, side, gender, age, and hip structural parameters. For accurate diagnosis and assessment of hip osteoarthritis, consideration of those influential factors other than degenerative change is important.

Evolution over time of the Milky Way's disc shape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amôres, E. B.; Robin, A. C.; Reylé, C.

2017-06-01

Context. Galactic structure studies can be used as a path to constrain the scenario of formation and evolution of our Galaxy. The dependence with the age of stellar population parameters would be linked with the history of star formation and dynamical evolution. Aims: We aim to investigate the structures of the outer Galaxy, such as the scale length, disc truncation, warp and flare of the thin disc and study their dependence with age by using 2MASS data and a population synthesis model (the so-called Besançon Galaxy Model). Methods: We have used a genetic algorithm to adjust the parameters on the observed colour-magnitude diagrams at longitudes 80° ≤ ℓ ≤ 280° for | b | ≤ 5.5°. We explored parameter degeneracies and uncertainties. Results: We identify a clear dependence of the thin disc scale length, warp and flare shapes with age. The scale length is found to vary between 3.8 kpc for the youngest to about 2 kpc for the oldest. The warp shows a complex structure, clearly asymmetrical with a node angle changing with age from approximately 165° for old stars to 195° for young stars. The outer disc is also flaring with a scale height that varies by a factor of two between the solar neighbourhood and a Galactocentric distance of 12 kpc. Conclusions: We conclude that the thin disc scale length is in good agreement with the inside-out formation scenario and that the outer disc is not in dynamical equilibrium. The warp deformation with time may provide some clues to its origin.

Genomic effects on advertisement call structure in diploid and triploid hybrid waterfrogs (Anura, Pelophylax esculentus).

PubMed

Hoffmann, Alexandra; Reyer, Heinz-Ulrich

2013-12-04

In anurans, differences in male mating calls have intensively been studied with respect to taxonomic classification, phylogeographic comparisons among different populations and sexual selection. Although overall successful, there is often much unexplained variation in these studies. Potential causes for such variation include differences among genotypes and breeding systems, as well as differences between populations. We investigated how these three factors affect call properties in male water frogs of Pelophylax lessonae (genotype LL), P. ridibundus (RR) and their interspecific hybrid P. esculentus which comes in diploid (LR) and triploid types (LLR, LRR). We investigated five call parameters that all showed a genomic dosage effect, i.e. they either decreased or increased with the L/R ratio in the order LL-LLR-LR-LRR-RR. Not all parameters differentiated equally well between the five genotypes, but combined they provided a good separation. Two of the five call parameters were also affected by the breeding system. Calls of diploid LR males varied, depending on whether these males mated with one or both of the parental species (diploid systems) or triploid hybrids (mixed ploidy systems). With the exception of the northernmost mixed-ploidy population, call differences were not related to the geographic location of the population and they were not correlated with genetic distances in the R and L genomes. We found an influence of all three tested factors on call parameters, with the effect size decreasing from genotype through breeding system to geographic location of the population. Overall, results were in line with predictions from a dosage effect in L/R ratios, but in three call parameters all three hybrid types were more similar to one or the other parental species. Also calls of diploid hybrids varied between breeding systems in agreement with the sexual host required for successful reproduction. The lack of hybrid call differences in a mixed-ploidy population at the northern edge of the water frog distribution is likely to be associated with genetic particularities, including a) low genetic variability and/or b) a local loss of genes coding for genotype-dependent call differentiation under conditions where female discrimination between diploid and triploid males is not beneficial.

Small-scale distribution characteristics of Munida spp. populations (Decapoda: Anomura) off the Catalan coasts (western Mediterranean)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huguet, Carme; Maynou, Francesc; Abelló, Pere

2005-04-01

The small-scale distribution characteristics of three species of the anomuran genus Munida, namely Munida rutllanti, Munida intermedia and Munida tenuimana, have been studied on the lower shelf and upper-middle continental slope near the coasts of Tarragona and the Ebro delta region in the western Mediterranean. The differential bathymetric distribution showed that a fair degree of overlap exists between M. rutllanti and M. intermedia, with the former being mainly found at shallower depths. The size population structure of the three species showed that polymodality, as indicative of a longer life-span and of a higher degree of population structuring was more evident in the deeper-living species, whereas unimodality, as an indication of a recruitment dependent population, was more evident in the shallowest-occurring species. Geostatistics have been applied to determine the degree of spatial variability occurring in M. intermedia abundance, the better-sampled species. The Mantel test has been used to assess the significance of the overlap between the three species distributions as well as the relation between certain population parameters. A discussion on the population characteristics of M. rutllanti is made in relation with its expansion along the western Mediterranean in the last decades.

Glaciation Effects on the Phylogeographic Structure of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (Rodentia: Sigmodontinae) in the Southern Andes

PubMed Central

Palma, R. Eduardo; Boric-Bargetto, Dusan; Torres-Pérez, Fernando; Hernández, Cristián E.; Yates, Terry L.

2012-01-01

The long-tailed pygmy rice rat Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (Sigmodontinae), the major reservoir of Hantavirus in Chile and Patagonian Argentina, is widely distributed in the Mediterranean, Temperate and Patagonian Forests of Chile, as well as in adjacent areas in southern Argentina. We used molecular data to evaluate the effects of the last glacial event on the phylogeographic structure of this species. We examined if historical Pleistocene events had affected genetic variation and spatial distribution of this species along its distributional range. We sampled 223 individuals representing 47 localities along the species range, and sequenced the hypervariable domain I of the mtDNA control region. Aligned sequences were analyzed using haplotype network, Bayesian population structure and demographic analyses. Analysis of population structure and the haplotype network inferred three genetic clusters along the distribution of O. longicaudatus that mostly agreed with the three major ecogeographic regions in Chile: Mediterranean, Temperate Forests and Patagonian Forests. Bayesian Skyline Plots showed constant population sizes through time in all three clusters followed by an increase after and during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; between 26,000–13,000 years ago). Neutrality tests and the “g” parameter also suggest that populations of O. longicaudatus experienced demographic expansion across the species entire range. Past climate shifts have influenced population structure and lineage variation of O. longicaudatus. This species remained in refugia areas during Pleistocene times in southern Temperate Forests (and adjacent areas in Patagonia). From these refugia, O. longicaudatus experienced demographic expansions into Patagonian Forests and central Mediterranean Chile using glacial retreats. PMID:22396751

Glaciation effects on the phylogeographic structure of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (Rodentia: Sigmodontinae) in the southern Andes.

PubMed

Palma, R Eduardo; Boric-Bargetto, Dusan; Torres-Pérez, Fernando; Hernández, Cristián E; Yates, Terry L

2012-01-01

The long-tailed pygmy rice rat Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (Sigmodontinae), the major reservoir of Hantavirus in Chile and Patagonian Argentina, is widely distributed in the Mediterranean, Temperate and Patagonian Forests of Chile, as well as in adjacent areas in southern Argentina. We used molecular data to evaluate the effects of the last glacial event on the phylogeographic structure of this species. We examined if historical Pleistocene events had affected genetic variation and spatial distribution of this species along its distributional range. We sampled 223 individuals representing 47 localities along the species range, and sequenced the hypervariable domain I of the mtDNA control region. Aligned sequences were analyzed using haplotype network, bayesian population structure and demographic analyses. Analysis of population structure and the haplotype network inferred three genetic clusters along the distribution of O. longicaudatus that mostly agreed with the three major ecogeographic regions in Chile: Mediterranean, Temperate Forests and Patagonian Forests. Bayesian Skyline Plots showed constant population sizes through time in all three clusters followed by an increase after and during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; between 26,000-13,000 years ago). Neutrality tests and the "g" parameter also suggest that populations of O. longicaudatus experienced demographic expansion across the species entire range. Past climate shifts have influenced population structure and lineage variation of O. longicaudatus. This species remained in refugia areas during Pleistocene times in southern Temperate Forests (and adjacent areas in Patagonia). From these refugia, O. longicaudatus experienced demographic expansions into Patagonian Forests and central Mediterranean Chile using glacial retreats.

Structure of S-shaped growth in innovation diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimogawa, Shinsuke; Shinno, Miyuki; Saito, Hiroshi

2012-05-01

A basic question on innovation diffusion is why the growth curve of the adopter population in a large society is often S shaped. From macroscopic, microscopic, and mesoscopic viewpoints, the growth of the adopter population is observed as the growth curve, individual adoptions, and differences among individual adoptions, respectively. The S shape can be explained if an empirical model of the growth curve can be deduced from models of microscopic and mesoscopic structures. However, even the structure of growth curve has not been revealed yet because long-term extrapolations by proposed models of S-shaped curves are unstable and it has been very difficult to predict the long-term growth and final adopter population. This paper studies the S-shaped growth from the viewpoint of social regularities. Simple methods to analyze power laws enable us to extract the structure of the growth curve directly from the growth data of recent basic telecommunication services. This empirical model of growth curve is singular at the inflection point and a logarithmic function of time after this point, which explains the unstable extrapolations obtained using previously proposed models and the difficulty in predicting the final adopter population. Because the empirical S curve can be expressed in terms of two power laws of the regularity found in social performances of individuals, we propose the hypothesis that the S shape represents the heterogeneity of the adopter population, and the heterogeneity parameter is distributed under the regularity in social performances of individuals. This hypothesis is so powerful as to yield models of microscopic and mesoscopic structures. In the microscopic model, each potential adopter adopts the innovation when the information accumulated by the learning about the innovation exceeds a threshold. The accumulation rate of information is heterogeneous among the adopter population, whereas the threshold is a constant, which is the opposite of previously proposed models. In the mesoscopic model, flows of innovation information incoming to individuals are organized as dimorphic and partially clustered. These microscopic and mesoscopic models yield the empirical model of the S curve and explain the S shape as representing the regularities of information flows generated through a social self-organization. To demonstrate the validity and importance of the hypothesis, the models of three level structures are applied to reveal the mechanism determining and differentiating diffusion speeds. The empirical model of S curves implies that the coefficient of variation of the flow rates determines the diffusion speed for later adopters. Based on this property, a model describing the inside of information flow clusters can be given, which provides a formula interconnecting the diffusion speed, cluster populations, and a network topological parameter of the flow clusters. For two recent basic telecommunication services in Japan, the formula represents the variety of speeds in different areas and enables us to explain speed gaps between urban and rural areas and between the two services. Furthermore, the formula provides a method to estimate the final adopter population.

Neandertal admixture in Eurasia confirmed by maximum-likelihood analysis of three genomes.

PubMed

Lohse, Konrad; Frantz, Laurent A F

2014-04-01

Although there has been much interest in estimating histories of divergence and admixture from genomic data, it has proved difficult to distinguish recent admixture from long-term structure in the ancestral population. Thus, recent genome-wide analyses based on summary statistics have sparked controversy about the possibility of interbreeding between Neandertals and modern humans in Eurasia. Here we derive the probability of full mutational configurations in nonrecombining sequence blocks under both admixture and ancestral structure scenarios. Dividing the genome into short blocks gives an efficient way to compute maximum-likelihood estimates of parameters. We apply this likelihood scheme to triplets of human and Neandertal genomes and compare the relative support for a model of admixture from Neandertals into Eurasian populations after their expansion out of Africa against a history of persistent structure in their common ancestral population in Africa. Our analysis allows us to conclusively reject a model of ancestral structure in Africa and instead reveals strong support for Neandertal admixture in Eurasia at a higher rate (3.4-7.3%) than suggested previously. Using analysis and simulations we show that our inference is more powerful than previous summary statistics and robust to realistic levels of recombination.

Neandertal Admixture in Eurasia Confirmed by Maximum-Likelihood Analysis of Three Genomes

PubMed Central

Lohse, Konrad; Frantz, Laurent A. F.

2014-01-01

Although there has been much interest in estimating histories of divergence and admixture from genomic data, it has proved difficult to distinguish recent admixture from long-term structure in the ancestral population. Thus, recent genome-wide analyses based on summary statistics have sparked controversy about the possibility of interbreeding between Neandertals and modern humans in Eurasia. Here we derive the probability of full mutational configurations in nonrecombining sequence blocks under both admixture and ancestral structure scenarios. Dividing the genome into short blocks gives an efficient way to compute maximum-likelihood estimates of parameters. We apply this likelihood scheme to triplets of human and Neandertal genomes and compare the relative support for a model of admixture from Neandertals into Eurasian populations after their expansion out of Africa against a history of persistent structure in their common ancestral population in Africa. Our analysis allows us to conclusively reject a model of ancestral structure in Africa and instead reveals strong support for Neandertal admixture in Eurasia at a higher rate (3.4−7.3%) than suggested previously. Using analysis and simulations we show that our inference is more powerful than previous summary statistics and robust to realistic levels of recombination. PMID:24532731

Outlier Loci and Selection Signatures of Simple Sequence Repeats (SSRs) in Flax (Linum usitatissimum L.).

PubMed

Soto-Cerda, Braulio J; Cloutier, Sylvie

2013-01-01

Genomic microsatellites (gSSRs) and expressed sequence tag-derived SSRs (EST-SSRs) have gained wide application for elucidating genetic diversity and population structure in plants. Both marker systems are assumed to be selectively neutral when making demographic inferences, but this assumption is rarely tested. In this study, three neutrality tests were assessed for identifying outlier loci among 150 SSRs (85 gSSRs and 65 EST-SSRs) that likely influence estimates of population structure in three differentiated flax sub-populations ( F ST  = 0.19). Moreover, the utility of gSSRs, EST-SSRs, and the combined sets of SSRs was also evaluated in assessing genetic diversity and population structure in flax. Six outlier loci were identified by at least two neutrality tests showing footprints of balancing selection. After removing the outlier loci, the STRUCTURE analysis and the dendrogram topology of EST-SSRs improved. Conversely, gSSRs and combined SSRs results did not change significantly, possibly as a consequence of the higher number of neutral loci assessed. Taken together, the genetic structure analyses established the superiority of gSSRs to determine the genetic relationships among flax accessions, although the combined SSRs produced the best results. Genetic diversity parameters did not differ statistically ( P  > 0.05) between gSSRs and EST-SSRs, an observation partially explained by the similar number of repeat motifs. Our study provides new insights into the ability of gSSRs and EST-SSRs to measure genetic diversity and structure in flax and confirms the importance of testing for the occurrence of outlier loci to properly assess natural and breeding populations, particularly in studies considering only few loci.

Clumpak: a program for identifying clustering modes and packaging population structure inferences across K.

PubMed

Kopelman, Naama M; Mayzel, Jonathan; Jakobsson, Mattias; Rosenberg, Noah A; Mayrose, Itay

2015-09-01

The identification of the genetic structure of populations from multilocus genotype data has become a central component of modern population-genetic data analysis. Application of model-based clustering programs often entails a number of steps, in which the user considers different modelling assumptions, compares results across different predetermined values of the number of assumed clusters (a parameter typically denoted K), examines multiple independent runs for each fixed value of K, and distinguishes among runs belonging to substantially distinct clustering solutions. Here, we present Clumpak (Cluster Markov Packager Across K), a method that automates the postprocessing of results of model-based population structure analyses. For analysing multiple independent runs at a single K value, Clumpak identifies sets of highly similar runs, separating distinct groups of runs that represent distinct modes in the space of possible solutions. This procedure, which generates a consensus solution for each distinct mode, is performed by the use of a Markov clustering algorithm that relies on a similarity matrix between replicate runs, as computed by the software Clumpp. Next, Clumpak identifies an optimal alignment of inferred clusters across different values of K, extending a similar approach implemented for a fixed K in Clumpp and simplifying the comparison of clustering results across different K values. Clumpak incorporates additional features, such as implementations of methods for choosing K and comparing solutions obtained by different programs, models, or data subsets. Clumpak, available at http://clumpak.tau.ac.il, simplifies the use of model-based analyses of population structure in population genetics and molecular ecology. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The ambivalent effect of lattice structure on a spatial game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hui; Gao, Meng; Li, Zizhen; Maa, Zhihui; Wang, Hailong

2011-06-01

The evolution of cooperation is studied in lattice-structured populations, in which each individual who adopts one of the following strategies ‘always defect' (ALLD), ‘tit-for-tat' (TFT), and ‘always cooperate' (ALLC) plays the repeated Prisoner's Dilemma game with its neighbors according to an asynchronous update rule. Computer simulations are applied to analyse the dynamics depending on major parameters. Mathematical analyses based on invasion probability analysis, mean-field approximation, as well as pair approximation are also used. We find that the lattice structure promotes the evolution of cooperation compared with a non-spatial population, this is also confirmed by invasion probability analysis in one dimension. Meanwhile, it also inhibits the evolution of cooperation due to the advantage of being spiteful, which indicates the key role of specific life-history assumptions. Mean-field approximation fails to predict the outcome of computer simulations. Pair approximation is accurate in two dimensions but fails in one dimension.

Environmental drivers of differences in microbial community structure in crude oil reservoirs across a methanogenic gradient

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shelton, Jenna L.; Akob, Denise M.; McIntosh, Jennifer C.; Fierer, Noah; Spear, John R.; Warwick, Peter D.; McCray, John E.

2016-01-01

Stimulating in situ microbial communities in oil reservoirs to produce natural gas is a potentially viable strategy for recovering additional fossil fuel resources following traditional recovery operations. Little is known about what geochemical parameters drive microbial population dynamics in biodegraded, methanogenic oil reservoirs. We investigated if microbial community structure was significantly impacted by the extent of crude oil biodegradation, extent of biogenic methane production, and formation water chemistry. Twenty-two oil production wells from north central Louisiana, USA, were sampled for analysis of microbial community structure and fluid geochemistry. Archaea were the dominant microbial community in the majority of the wells sampled. Methanogens, including hydrogenotrophic and methylotrophic organisms, were numerically dominant in every well, accounting for, on average, over 98% of the total Archaea present. The dominant Bacteria groups were Pseudomonas, Acinetobacter, Enterobacteriaceae, and Clostridiales, which have also been identified in other microbially-altered oil reservoirs. Comparing microbial community structure to fluid (gas, water, and oil) geochemistry revealed that the relative extent of biodegradation, salinity, and spatial location were the major drivers of microbial diversity. Archaeal relative abundance was independent of the extent of methanogenesis, but closely correlated to the extent of crude oil biodegradation; therefore, microbial community structure is likely not a good sole predictor of methanogenic activity, but may predict the extent of crude oil biodegradation. However, when the shallow, highly biodegraded, low salinity wells were excluded from the statistical analysis, no environmental parameters could explain the differences in microbial community structure. This suggests that the microbial community structure of the 5 shallow, up-dip wells was different than the 17 deeper, down-dip wells. Also, the 17 down-dip wells had statistically similar microbial communities despite significant changes in environmental parameters between oil fields. Together, this implies that no single microbial population is a reliable indicator of a reservoir's ability to degrade crude oil to methane, and that geochemistry may be a more important indicator for selecting a reservoir suitable for microbial enhancement of natural gas generation.

Applicability and feasibility of systematic review for performing evidence-based risk assessment in food and feed safety.

PubMed

Aiassa, E; Higgins, J P T; Frampton, G K; Greiner, M; Afonso, A; Amzal, B; Deeks, J; Dorne, J-L; Glanville, J; Lövei, G L; Nienstedt, K; O'connor, A M; Pullin, A S; Rajić, A; Verloo, D

2015-01-01

Food and feed safety risk assessment uses multi-parameter models to evaluate the likelihood of adverse events associated with exposure to hazards in human health, plant health, animal health, animal welfare, and the environment. Systematic review and meta-analysis are established methods for answering questions in health care, and can be implemented to minimize biases in food and feed safety risk assessment. However, no methodological frameworks exist for refining risk assessment multi-parameter models into questions suitable for systematic review, and use of meta-analysis to estimate all parameters required by a risk model may not be always feasible. This paper describes novel approaches for determining question suitability and for prioritizing questions for systematic review in this area. Risk assessment questions that aim to estimate a parameter are likely to be suitable for systematic review. Such questions can be structured by their "key elements" [e.g., for intervention questions, the population(s), intervention(s), comparator(s), and outcome(s)]. Prioritization of questions to be addressed by systematic review relies on the likely impact and related uncertainty of individual parameters in the risk model. This approach to planning and prioritizing systematic review seems to have useful implications for producing evidence-based food and feed safety risk assessment.

A Continuous Method for Gene Flow

PubMed Central

Palczewski, Michal; Beerli, Peter

2013-01-01

Most modern population genetics inference methods are based on the coalescence framework. Methods that allow estimating parameters of structured populations commonly insert migration events into the genealogies. For these methods the calculation of the coalescence probability density of a genealogy requires a product over all time periods between events. Data sets that contain populations with high rates of gene flow among them require an enormous number of calculations. A new method, transition probability-structured coalescence (TPSC), replaces the discrete migration events with probability statements. Because the speed of calculation is independent of the amount of gene flow, this method allows calculating the coalescence densities efficiently. The current implementation of TPSC uses an approximation simplifying the interaction among lineages. Simulations and coverage comparisons of TPSC vs. MIGRATE show that TPSC allows estimation of high migration rates more precisely, but because of the approximation the estimation of low migration rates is biased. The implementation of TPSC into programs that calculate quantities on phylogenetic tree structures is straightforward, so the TPSC approach will facilitate more general inferences in many computer programs. PMID:23666937

Epidemics in small world networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Telo da Gama, M. M.; Nunes, A.

2006-03-01

For many infectious diseases, a small-world network on an underlying regular lattice is a suitable simplified model for the contact structure of the host population. It is well known that the contact network, described in this setting by a single parameter, the small-world parameter p, plays an important role both in the short term and in the long term dynamics of epidemic spread. We have studied the effect of the network structure on models of immune for life diseases and found that in addition to the reduction of the effective transmission rate, through the screening of infectives, spatial correlations may strongly enhance the stochastic fluctuations. As a consequence, time series of unforced Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) models provide patterns of recurrent epidemics with realistic amplitudes, suggesting that these models together with complex networks of contacts are the key ingredients to describe the prevaccination dynamical patterns of diseases such as measles and pertussis. We have also studied the role of the host contact strucuture in pathogen antigenic variation, through its effect on the final outcome of an invasion by a viral strain of a population where a very similar virus is endemic. Similar viral strains are modelled by the same infection and reinfection parameters, and by a given degree of cross immunity that represents the antigenic distance between the competing strains. We have found, somewhat surprisingly, that clustering on the network decreases the potential to sustain pathogen diversity.

Endogenous change: on cooperation and water in ancient history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pande, S.; Ertsen, M.

2013-04-01

We propose and test the theory of endogenous change based on historical reconstructions of two ancient civilizations, Indus and Hohokam, in two water scarce basins, the Indus basin in the Indian subcontinent and the Lower Colorado basin in Southwestern United States. The endogenous institutional change sees changes in institutions as a sequence of equilibria brought about by changes in "quasi-parameters" such as rainfall, population density, soil and land use induced water resource availability. In the historical reconstructions of ancient civilizations, institutions are proximated by the scale of cooperation be it in the form of the extent of trade, sophisticated irrigation network, a centrally planned state or a loosely held state with a common cultural identity. The "quasi-parameters" either change naturally or are changed by humans and the changes affect the stability of cooperative structures over time. However, human influenced changes in the quasi-parameters itself are conditioned on the scale of existing cooperative structures. We thus provide insights into the quantitative dimensions of water access by ancient populations and its co-evolution with the socioeconomic and sociopolitical organization of the human past. We however do not suggest that water manipulation was the single most significant factor in stimulating social development and complexity - clearly this has been shown as highly reductionist, even misleading. The paper cautiously contributes to proximate prediction of hydrological change by attempting to understand the complexity of coupled human-hydrological systems.

Inferring epidemiological parameters from phylogenetic information for the HIV-1 epidemic among MSM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quax, Rick; van de Vijver, David A. M. C.; Frentz, Dineke; Sloot, Peter M. A.

2013-09-01

The HIV-1 epidemic in Europe is primarily sustained by a dynamic topology of sexual interactions among MSM who have individual immune systems and behavior. This epidemiological process shapes the phylogeny of the virus population. Both fields of epidemic modeling and phylogenetics have a long history, however it remains difficult to use phylogenetic data to infer epidemiological parameters such as the structure of the sexual network and the per-act infectiousness. This is because phylogenetic data is necessarily incomplete and ambiguous. Here we show that the cluster-size distribution indeed contains information about epidemiological parameters using detailed numberical experiments. We simulate the HIV epidemic among MSM many times using the Monte Carlo method with all parameter values and their ranges taken from literature. For each simulation and the corresponding set of parameter values we calculate the likelihood of reproducing an observed cluster-size distribution. The result is an estimated likelihood distribution of all parameters from the phylogenetic data, in particular the structure of the sexual network, the per-act infectiousness, and the risk behavior reduction upon diagnosis. These likelihood distributions encode the knowledge provided by the observed cluster-size distrbution, which we quantify using information theory. Our work suggests that the growing body of genetic data of patients can be exploited to understand the underlying epidemiological process.

A population model of chaparral vegetation response to frequent wildfires.

PubMed

Lucas, Timothy A; Johns, Garrett; Jiang, Wancen; Yang, Lucie

2013-12-01

The recent increase in wildfire frequency in the Santa Monica Mountains (SMM) may substantially impact plant community structure. Species of Chaparral shrubs represent the dominant vegetation type in the SMM. These species can be divided into three life history types according to their response to wildfires. Nonsprouting species are completely killed by fire and reproduce by seeds that germinate in response to a fire cue, obligate sprouting species survive by resprouting from dormant buds in a root crown because their seeds are destroyed by fire, and facultative sprouting species recover after fire both by seeds and resprouts. Based on these assumptions, we developed a set of nonlinear difference equations to model each life history type. These models can be used to predict species survivorship under varying fire return intervals. For example, frequent fires can lead to localized extinction of nonsprouting species such as Ceanothus megacarpus while several facultative sprouting species such as Ceanothus spinosus and Malosma (Rhus) laurina will persist as documented by a longitudinal study in a biological preserve in the SMM. We estimated appropriate parameter values for several chaparral species using 25 years of data and explored parameter relationships that lead to equilibrium populations. We conclude by looking at the survival strategies of these three species of chaparral shrubs under varying fire return intervals and predict changes in plant community structure under fire intervals of short return. In particular, our model predicts that an average fire return interval of greater than 12 years is required for 50 % of the initial Ceanothus megacarpus population and 25 % of the initial Ceanothus spinosus population to survive. In contrast, we predict that the Malosma laurina population will have 90 % survivorship for an average fire return interval of at least 6 years.

Sobol' sensitivity analysis for stressor impacts on honeybee ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We employ Monte Carlo simulation and nonlinear sensitivity analysis techniques to describe the dynamics of a bee exposure model, VarroaPop. Daily simulations are performed of hive population trajectories, taking into account queen strength, foraging success, mite impacts, weather, colony resources, population structure, and other important variables. This allows us to test the effects of defined pesticide exposure scenarios versus controlled simulations that lack pesticide exposure. The daily resolution of the model also allows us to conditionally identify sensitivity metrics. We use the variancebased global decomposition sensitivity analysis method, Sobol’, to assess firstand secondorder parameter sensitivities within VarroaPop, allowing us to determine how variance in the output is attributed to each of the input variables across different exposure scenarios. Simulations with VarroaPop indicate queen strength, forager life span and pesticide toxicity parameters are consistent, critical inputs for colony dynamics. Further analysis also reveals that the relative importance of these parameters fluctuates throughout the simulation period according to the status of other inputs. Our preliminary results show that model variability is conditional and can be attributed to different parameters depending on different timescales. By using sensitivity analysis to assess model output and variability, calibrations of simulation models can be better informed to yield more

Effects of spatial structure of population size on the population dynamics of barnacles across their elevational range.

PubMed

Fukaya, Keiichi; Okuda, Takehiro; Nakaoka, Masahiro; Noda, Takashi

2014-11-01

Explanations for why population dynamics vary across the range of a species reflect two contrasting hypotheses: (i) temporal variability of populations is larger in the centre of the range compared to the margins because overcompensatory density dependence destabilizes population dynamics and (ii) population variability is larger near the margins, where populations are more susceptible to environmental fluctuations. In both of these hypotheses, positions within the range are assumed to affect population variability. In contrast, the fact that population variability is often related to mean population size implies that the spatial structure of the population size within the range of a species may also be a useful predictor of the spatial variation in temporal variability of population size over the range of the species. To explore how population temporal variability varies spatially and the underlying processes responsible for the spatial variation, we focused on the intertidal barnacle Chthamalus dalli and examined differences in its population dynamics along the tidal levels it inhabits. Changes in coverage of barnacle populations were monitored for 10.5 years at 25 plots spanning the elevational range of this species. Data were analysed by fitting a population dynamics model to estimate the effects of density-dependent and density-independent processes on population growth. We also examined the temporal mean-variance relationship of population size with parameters estimated from the population dynamics model. We found that the relative variability of populations tended to increase from the centre of the elevational range towards the margins because of an increase in the magnitude of stochastic fluctuations of growth rates. Thus, our results supported hypothesis (2). We also found that spatial variations in temporal population variability were well characterized by Taylor's power law, the relative population variability being inversely related to the mean population size. Results suggest that understanding the population dynamics of a species over its range may be facilitated by taking the spatial structure of population size into account as well as by considering changes in population processes as a function of position within the range of the species. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Random and non-random mating populations: Evolutionary dynamics in meiotic drive.

PubMed

Sarkar, Bijan

2016-01-01

Game theoretic tools are utilized to analyze a one-locus continuous selection model of sex-specific meiotic drive by considering nonequivalence of the viabilities of reciprocal heterozygotes that might be noticed at an imprinted locus. The model draws attention to the role of viability selections of different types to examine the stable nature of polymorphic equilibrium. A bridge between population genetics and evolutionary game theory has been built up by applying the concept of the Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection. In addition to pointing out the influences of male and female segregation ratios on selection, configuration structure reveals some noted results, e.g., Hardy-Weinberg frequencies hold in replicator dynamics, occurrence of faster evolution at the maximized variance fitness, existence of mixed Evolutionarily Stable Strategy (ESS) in asymmetric games, the tending evolution to follow not only a 1:1 sex ratio but also a 1:1 different alleles ratio at particular gene locus. Through construction of replicator dynamics in the group selection framework, our selection model introduces a redefining bases of game theory to incorporate non-random mating where a mating parameter associated with population structure is dependent on the social structure. Also, the model exposes the fact that the number of polymorphic equilibria will depend on the algebraic expression of population structure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Population ecology of Crocodylus acutus (Reptilia: Crocodylidae) in Palmasola lagoon, Oaxaca, Mexico].

PubMed

García-Grajales, Jesús; Silva, Alejandra Buenrostro

2014-03-01

Population ecology of Crocodylus acutus (Reptilia: Crocodylidae) in Palmasola lagoon, Oaxaca, Mexico. Abundance and population structure are important parameters to evaluate and compare the conservation status of a population over time in a given area. This study describes the population abundance and structure of Crocodylus acutus in Palmasola lagoon, Oaxaca. The field works consisted of night surveys during the new moon phase, between the 21:00 and 24:00h. These were conducted during the dry and wet seasons and counted the number of individuals to obtain population estimates. Recorded encounter rates ranged from 32 to 109.3ind./ km in 40 journeys deployed with an average time of 18 minutes browsing. The estimated population size using the Messel's model ranged from 32.7 to 93 individuals. For both seasons, there was a marked dominance of subadults, followed by juveniles and to a lesser extent adult individuals, as well as undetermined individuals (i.e. unknown body/size/length), in both seasons. There was also a significant association with mangrove areas (26.1%) by juveniles; the subadults's individual use of superficial water (22.7%) and mangrove areas (15.7%); meanwhile the adults were observed on superficial water (9.7%). This information contributes to our understanding of the population ecology of C. acutus in the Palmasola lagoon where the estimated population size seems to show higher values when compared to other reports in the country.

Assessment of sex in a modern Turkish population using cranial anthropometric parameters.

PubMed

Ekizoglu, Oguzhan; Hocaoglu, Elif; Inci, Ercan; Can, Ismail Ozgur; Solmaz, Dilek; Aksoy, Sema; Buran, Cudi Ferat; Sayin, Ibrahim

2016-07-01

The utilization of radiological imaging methods in anthropometric studies is being expanded by the application of modern imaging methods, leading to a decrease in costs, a decrease in the time required for analysis and the ability to create three-dimensional images. This retrospective study investigated 400 patients within the 18-45-years age group (mean age: 30.7±11.2years) using cranial computed tomography images. We measured 14 anthropometric parameters (basion-bregma height, basion-prosthion length, maximum cranial length and cranial base lengths, maximum cranial breadth, bizygomatic diameter, upper facial breadth, bimastoid diameter, orbital breadth, orbital length, biorbital breadth, interorbital breadth, foramen magnum breadth and foramen magnum length) of cranial measurements. The intra- and inter-observer repeatability and consistency were good. From the results of logistic regression analysis using morphometric measurements, the most conspicuous measurements in terms of dimorphism were maximum cranial length, bizygomatic diameter, basion-bregma height, and cranial base length. The most dimorphic structure was the bizygomatic diameter with an accuracy rate of 83% in females and 77% in males. In this study, 87.5% of females and 87.0% of males were classified accurately by this model including four parameters with a sensitivity of 91.5% and specificity of 85.0%. In conclusion, CT cranial morphometric analysis may be reliable for the assessment of sex in the Turkish population and is recommended for comparison of data of modern populations with those of former populations. Additionally, cranial morphometric data that we obtained from modern Turkish population may reveal population specific data, which may help current criminal investigations and identification of disaster victims. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global optimization and reflectivity data fitting for x-ray multilayer mirrors by means of genetic algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sanchez del Rio, Manuel; Pareschi, Giovanni

2001-01-01

The x-ray reflectivity of a multilayer is a non-linear function of many parameters (materials, layer thicknesses, densities, roughness). Non-linear fitting of experimental data with simulations requires to use initial values sufficiently close to the optimum value. This is a difficult task when the space topology of the variables is highly structured, as in our case. The application of global optimization methods to fit multilayer reflectivity data is presented. Genetic algorithms are stochastic methods based on the model of natural evolution: the improvement of a population along successive generations. A complete set of initial parameters constitutes an individual. The population is a collection of individuals. Each generation is built from the parent generation by applying some operators (e.g. selection, crossover, mutation) on the members of the parent generation. The pressure of selection drives the population to include 'good' individuals. For large number of generations, the best individuals will approximate the optimum parameters. Some results on fitting experimental hard x-ray reflectivity data for Ni/C multilayers recorded at the ESRF BM5 are presented. This method could be also applied to the help in the design of multilayers optimized for a target application, like for an astronomical grazing-incidence hard X-ray telescopes.

Bacterial Population Changes in a Membrane Bioreactor for Graywater Treatment Monitored by Denaturing Gradient Gel Electrophoretic Analysis of 16S rRNA Gene Fragments

PubMed Central

Stamper, David M.; Walch, Marianne; Jacobs, Rachel N.

2003-01-01

The bacterial population of a graywater treatment system was monitored over the course of 100 days, along with several wastewater biochemical parameters. The graywater treatment system employed an 1,800-liter membrane bioreactor (MBR) to process the waste, with essentially 100% recycling of the biomass. Graywater feed consisting of 10% galley water and 90% laundry water, selected to approximate the graywater composition on board U.S. Navy ships, was collected offsite. Five-day biological oxygen demand (BOD5), oils and greases (O/G), nitrogen, and phosphorus were monitored in the feed and were found to vary greatly day to day. Changes in the bacterial population were monitored by PCR amplification of region 332 to 518 (Escherichia coli numbering) of the 16S rRNA gene and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) analysis of the resultant PCR products. DGGE analysis indicated a diverse and unstable bacterial population throughout the 100-day period, with spikes in feed strength causing significant changes in community structure. Long-term similarity between the communities was 0 to 25%, depending on the method of analysis. In spite of the unstable bacterial population, the MBR system was able to meet effluent quality parameters approximately 90% of the time. PMID:12571004

Bacterial population changes in a membrane bioreactor for graywater treatment monitored by denaturing gradient gel electrophoretic analysis of 16S rRNA gene fragments.

PubMed

Stamper, David M; Walch, Marianne; Jacobs, Rachel N

2003-02-01

The bacterial population of a graywater treatment system was monitored over the course of 100 days, along with several wastewater biochemical parameters. The graywater treatment system employed an 1,800-liter membrane bioreactor (MBR) to process the waste, with essentially 100% recycling of the biomass. Graywater feed consisting of 10% galley water and 90% laundry water, selected to approximate the graywater composition on board U.S. Navy ships, was collected offsite. Five-day biological oxygen demand (BOD(5)), oils and greases (O/G), nitrogen, and phosphorus were monitored in the feed and were found to vary greatly day to day. Changes in the bacterial population were monitored by PCR amplification of region 332 to 518 (Escherichia coli numbering) of the 16S rRNA gene and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE) analysis of the resultant PCR products. DGGE analysis indicated a diverse and unstable bacterial population throughout the 100-day period, with spikes in feed strength causing significant changes in community structure. Long-term similarity between the communities was 0 to 25%, depending on the method of analysis. In spite of the unstable bacterial population, the MBR system was able to meet effluent quality parameters approximately 90% of the time.

Genetic variation and evolutionary demography of Fenneropenaeus chinensis populations, as revealed by the analysis of mitochondrial control region sequences

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Genetic variation and evolutionary demography of the shrimp Fenneropenaeus chinensis were investigated using sequence data of the complete mitochondrial control region (CR). Fragments of 993 bp of the CR were sequenced for 93 individuals from five localities over most of the species' range in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea. There were 84 variable sites defining 68 haplotypes. Haplotype diversity levels were very high (0.95 ± 0.03-0.99 ± 0.02) in F. chinensis populations, whereas those of nucleotide diversity were moderate to low (0.66 ± 0.36%-0.84 ± 0.46%). Analysis of molecular variance and conventional population statistics (FST ) revealed no significant genetic structure throughout the range of F. chinensis. Mismatch distribution, estimates of population parameters and neutrality tests revealed that the significant fluctuations and shallow coalescence of mtDNA genealogies observed were coincident with estimated demographic parameters and neutrality tests, in implying important past-population size fluctuations or range expansion. Isolation with Migration (IM) coalescence results suggest that F. chinensis, distributed along the coasts of northern China and the Korean Peninsula (about 1000 km apart), diverged recently, the estimated time-split being 12,800 (7,400-18,600) years ago. PMID:21637498

Voids and the Cosmic Web: cosmic depression & spatial complexity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van de Weygaert, Rien

2016-10-01

Voids form a prominent aspect of the Megaparsec distribution of galaxies and matter. Not only do theyrepresent a key constituent of the Cosmic Web, they also are one of the cleanest probesand measures of global cosmological parameters. The shape and evolution of voids are highly sensitive tothe nature of dark energy, while their substructure and galaxy population provides a direct key to thenature of dark matter. Also, the pristine environment of void interiors is an important testing groundfor our understanding of environmental influences on galaxy formation and evolution. In this paper, we reviewthe key aspects of the structure and dynamics ofvoids, with a particular focus on the hierarchical evolution of the void population. We demonstratehow the rich structural pattern of the Cosmic Web is related to the complex evolution and buildupof voids.

Genetic structure and seed-mediated dispersal rates of an endangered shrub in a fragmented landscape: a case study for Juniperus communis in northwestern Europe

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Population extinction risk in a fragmented landscape is related to the differential ability of the species to spread its genes across the landscape. The impact of landscape fragmentation on plant population dynamics will therefore vary across different spatial scales. We quantified successful seed-mediated dispersal of the dioecious shrub Juniperus communis in a fragmented landscape across northwestern Europe by using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers. Furthermore we investigated the genetic diversity and structure on two spatial scales: across northwestern Europe and across Flanders (northern Belgium). We also studied whether seed viability and populations size were correlated with genetic diversity. Results Unexpectedly, estimated seed-mediated dispersal rates were quite high and ranged between 3% and 14%. No population differentiation and no spatial genetic structure were detected on the local, Flemish scale. A significant low to moderate genetic differentiation between populations was detected at the regional, northwest European scale (PhiPT = 0.10). In general, geographically nearby populations were also genetically related. High levels of within-population genetic diversity were detected but no correlation was found between any genetic diversity parameter and population size or seed viability. Conclusions In northwestern Europe, landscape fragmentation has lead to a weak isolation-by-distance pattern but not to genetic impoverishment of common juniper. Substantial rates of successful migration by seed-mediated gene flow indicate a high dispersal ability which could enable Juniperus communis to naturally colonize suitable habitats. However, it is not clear whether the observed levels of migration will suffice to counterbalance the effects of genetic drift in small populations on the long run. PMID:21859457

Genetic structure and seed-mediated dispersal rates of an endangered shrub in a fragmented landscape: a case study for Juniperus communis in northwestern Europe.

PubMed

Vanden-Broeck, An; Gruwez, Robert; Cox, Karen; Adriaenssens, Sandy; Michalczyk, Inga M; Verheyen, Kris

2011-08-22

Population extinction risk in a fragmented landscape is related to the differential ability of the species to spread its genes across the landscape. The impact of landscape fragmentation on plant population dynamics will therefore vary across different spatial scales. We quantified successful seed-mediated dispersal of the dioecious shrub Juniperus communis in a fragmented landscape across northwestern Europe by using amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) markers. Furthermore we investigated the genetic diversity and structure on two spatial scales: across northwestern Europe and across Flanders (northern Belgium). We also studied whether seed viability and populations size were correlated with genetic diversity. Unexpectedly, estimated seed-mediated dispersal rates were quite high and ranged between 3% and 14%. No population differentiation and no spatial genetic structure were detected on the local, Flemish scale. A significant low to moderate genetic differentiation between populations was detected at the regional, northwest European scale (PhiPT = 0.10). In general, geographically nearby populations were also genetically related. High levels of within-population genetic diversity were detected but no correlation was found between any genetic diversity parameter and population size or seed viability. In northwestern Europe, landscape fragmentation has lead to a weak isolation-by-distance pattern but not to genetic impoverishment of common juniper. Substantial rates of successful migration by seed-mediated gene flow indicate a high dispersal ability which could enable Juniperus communis to naturally colonize suitable habitats. However, it is not clear whether the observed levels of migration will suffice to counterbalance the effects of genetic drift in small populations on the long run.

Prophylactic ranitidine treatment in critically ill children – a population pharmacokinetic study

PubMed Central

Hawwa, Ahmed F; Westwood, Paul M; Collier, Paul S; Millership, Jeffrey S; Yakkundi, Shirish; Thurley, Gillian; Shields, Mike D; Nunn, Anthony J; Halliday, Henry L; McElnay, James C

2013-01-01

Aims To characterize the population pharmacokinetics of ranitidine in critically ill children and to determine the influence of various clinical and demographic factors on its disposition. Methods Data were collected prospectively from 78 paediatric patients (n = 248 plasma samples) who received oral or intravenous ranitidine for prophylaxis against stress ulcers, gastrointestinal bleeding or the treatment of gastro-oesophageal reflux. Plasma samples were analysed using high-performance liquid chromatography, and the data were subjected to population pharmacokinetic analysis using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. Results A one-compartment model best described the plasma concentration profile, with an exponential structure for interindividual errors and a proportional structure for intra-individual error. After backward stepwise elimination, the final model showed a significant decrease in objective function value (−12.618; P < 0.001) compared with the weight-corrected base model. Final parameter estimates for the population were 32.1 l h−1 for total clearance and 285 l for volume of distribution, both allometrically modelled for a 70 kg adult. Final estimates for absorption rate constant and bioavailability were 1.31 h−1 and 27.5%, respectively. No significant relationship was found between age and weight-corrected ranitidine pharmacokinetic parameters in the final model, with the covariate for cardiac failure or surgery being shown to reduce clearance significantly by a factor of 0.46. Conclusions Currently, ranitidine dose recommendations are based on children's weights. However, our findings suggest that a dosing scheme that takes into consideration both weight and cardiac failure/surgery would be more appropriate in order to avoid administration of higher or more frequent doses than necessary. PMID:23016949

Life histories predict genetic diversity and population structure within three species of octopus targeted by small-scale fisheries in Northwest Mexico.

PubMed

Domínguez-Contreras, José F; Munguia-Vega, Adrian; Ceballos-Vázquez, Bertha P; Arellano-Martínez, Marcial; García-Rodríguez, Francisco J; Culver, Melanie; Reyes-Bonilla, Hector

2018-01-01

The fishery for octopus in Northwest Mexico has increased to over 2,000 tons annually, but to date the specific composition of the catch has been ignored. With at least three main species targeted by artisanal fisheries in the region with distinct life histories, the lack of basic biological information about the distribution, metapopulation size and structure of each species could impede effective fisheries management to avoid overexploitation. We tested if different life histories of three species of octopus could help predict observed patterns of genetic diversity, population dynamics, structure and connectivity and how this information could be relevant to the sustainable management of the fishery. We sequenced two mitochondrial genes and genotyped seven nuclear microsatellite loci to identify the distribution of each species in 20 locations from the Gulf of California and the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. We tested five hypotheses derived from population genetic theory based on differences in the fecundity and dispersal potential for each species. We discovered that Octopus bimaculoides with low fecundity and direct development (without a planktonic phase) had lower average effective population size and genetic diversity, but higher levels of kinship, population structure, and richness of private alleles, than the other two species. These features indicated limited dispersal and high local recruitment. In contrast, O. bimaculatus and O. hubbsorum with higher fecundity and planktonic phase as paralarvae had higher effective population size and genetic diversity, and overall lower kinship and population structure than O. bimaculoides . These observations supported higher levels of gene flow over a larger geographical scale. O. bimaculatus with the longest planktonic paralarval duration and therefore larger dispersal potential had differences in the calculated parameters possibly associated with increased connectivity. We propose O. bimaculoides is more susceptible to over exploitation of small, isolated populations and could have longer recovery times than the other two species. This species may benefit from distinct fishery management within each local population. O. bimaculatus and O. hubbsorum may benefit from fishery management that takes into account metapopulation structure over larger geographic scales and the directionality and magnitude of larval dispersal driven by ocean currents and population connectivity among individuals of each locality. The distribution of each species and variations in their reproductive phenology is also important to consider when establishing marine reserves or seasonal fishing closures.

Interactions Between the Cross-Shore Structure of Small Pelagic Fish Population, Offshore Industrial Fisheries and Near Shore Artisanal Fisheries: A Mathematical Approach.

PubMed

Mchich, Rachid; Brochier, Timothée; Auger, Pierre; Brehmer, Patrice

2016-12-01

This work presents a mathematical model describing the interactions between the cross-shore structure of small pelagic fish population an their exploitation by coastal and offshore fisheries. The complete model is a system of seven ODE's governing three stocks of small pelagic fish population moving and growing between three zones. Two types of fishing fleets are inter-acting with the fish population, industrial boats, constrained to offshore area, and artisanal boats, operating from the shore. Two time scales were considered and we use aggregation methods that allow us to reduce the dimension of the model and to obtain an aggregated model, which is a four dimension one. The analysis of the aggregated model is performed. We discuss the possible equilibriums and their meaning in terms of fishery management. An interesting equilibrium state can be obtained for which we can expect coexistence and a stable equilibrium state between fish stocks and fishing efforts. Some identification parameters are also given in the discussion part of the model.

Micro-epidemiological structuring of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations in regions with varying transmission intensities in Africa.

PubMed Central

Omedo, Irene; Mogeni, Polycarp; Bousema, Teun; Rockett, Kirk; Amambua-Ngwa, Alfred; Oyier, Isabella; C. Stevenson, Jennifer; Y. Baidjoe, Amrish; de Villiers, Etienne P.; Fegan, Greg; Ross, Amanda; Hubbart, Christina; Jeffreys, Anne; N. Williams, Thomas; Kwiatkowski, Dominic; Bejon, Philip

2017-01-01

Background: The first models of malaria transmission assumed a completely mixed and homogeneous population of parasites.  Recent models include spatial heterogeneity and variably mixed populations. However, there are few empiric estimates of parasite mixing with which to parametize such models. Methods: Here we genotype 276 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 5199 P. falciparum isolates from two Kenyan sites (Kilifi county and Rachuonyo South district) and one Gambian site (Kombo coastal districts) to determine the spatio-temporal extent of parasite mixing, and use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and linear regression to examine the relationship between genetic relatedness and distance in space and time for parasite pairs. Results: Using 107, 177 and 82 SNPs that were successfully genotyped in 133, 1602, and 1034 parasite isolates from The Gambia, Kilifi and Rachuonyo South district, respectively, we show that there are no discrete geographically restricted parasite sub-populations, but instead we see a diffuse spatio-temporal structure to parasite genotypes.  Genetic relatedness of sample pairs is predicted by relatedness in space and time. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that targeted malaria control will benefit the surrounding community, but unfortunately also that emerging drug resistance will spread rapidly through the population. PMID:28612053

Harvesting, predation and competition effects on a red coral population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbiati, M.; Buffoni, G.; Caforio, G.; Di Cola, G.; Santangelo, G.

A Corallium rubrum population, dwelling in the Ligurian Sea, has been under observation since 1987. Biometric descriptors of colonies (base diameter, weight, number of polyps, number of growth rings) have been recorded and correlated. The population size structure was obtained by distributing the colonies into diameter classes, each size class representing the average annual increment of diameter growth. The population was divided into ten classes, including a recruitment class. This size structure showed a fairly regular trend in the first four classes. The irregularity of survival in the older classes agreed with field observations on harvesting and predation. Demographic parameters such as survival, growth plasticity and natality coefficients were estimated from the experimental data. On this basis a discrete nonlinear model was implemented. The model is based on a kind of density-dependent Leslie matrix, where the feedback term only occurs in survival of the first class; the recruitment function is assumed to be dependent on the total biomass and related to inhibiting effects due to competitive interactions. Stability analysis was applied to steady-state solutions. Numerical simulations of population evolution were carried out under different conditions. The dynamics of settlement and the effects of disturbances such as harvesting, predation and environmental variability were studied.

Age, maturation, and population structure of the Humboldt squid Dosidicus gigas off the Peruvian Exclusive Economic Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Bilin; Chen, Xinjun; Chen, Yong; Tian, Siquan; Li, Jianhua; Fang, Zhou; Yang, Mingxia

2013-01-01

Age, maturation and population structure of the Humboldt squid Dosidicus gigas were studied based on random sampling of the Chinese jigging fishery off the Peruvian Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ) during 2008-2010. Estimated ages ranged from 144 to 633 days, confirming that the squid is a short-lived species with longevity no longer than 2 years. Occurrence of mature females and hatching in each month indicated that Humboldt squid spawned year-round. Back-calculated hatching dates for the samples were from January 22nd, 2008 to April 22nd, 2010 with a peak between January and March. Two size-based and two hatching date-based populations could be defined from mantle length (ML) at maturity and back-calculated hatching dates, respectively. Females matured at a larger size than males, and there was a significant difference in ML at maturity between the two hatching groups ( P <0.05). The waters adjacent to 11°S off the Peruvian EEZ may be a potential spawning ground. This study shows the complexity of the population structure and large variability in key life history parameters in the Humboldt squid off the Peruvian EEZ, which should be considered in the assessment and management of this important resource.

Reward from punishment does not emerge at all costs.

PubMed

Vukov, Jeromos; Pinheiro, Flávio L; Santos, Francisco C; Pacheco, Jorge M

2013-01-01

The conundrum of cooperation has received increasing attention during the last decade. In this quest, the role of altruistic punishment has been identified as a mechanism promoting cooperation. Here we investigate the role of altruistic punishment on the emergence and maintenance of cooperation in structured populations exhibiting connectivity patterns recently identified as key elements of social networks. We do so in the framework of Evolutionary Game Theory, employing the Prisoner's Dilemma and the Stag-Hunt metaphors to model the conflict between individual and collective interests regarding cooperation. We find that the impact of altruistic punishment strongly depends on the ratio q/p between the cost of punishing a defecting partner (q) and the actual punishment incurred by the partner (p). We show that whenever q/p<1, altruistic punishment turns out to be detrimental for cooperation for a wide range of payoff parameters, when compared to the scenario without punishment. The results imply that while locally, the introduction of peer punishment may seem to reduce the chances of free-riding, realistic population structure may drive the population towards the opposite scenario. Hence, structured populations effectively reduce the expected beneficial contribution of punishment to the emergence of cooperation which, if not carefully dosed, may in fact hinder the chances of widespread cooperation.

The Backscattering Enigma in Natural Waters

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-09-30

down because the effects of changing particle composition are not adequately understood. Our long term goal is to better understand the source of...natural waters. APPROACH A key focus over the last year has been determining the scattering properties of phytoplankton populations and...spaces, etc.), and forms the basis of the terrestrial biomass parameter NDVI (normalized difference vegetation index). However, plant cell structures

A Two-Stage Approach to Missing Data: Theory and Application to Auxiliary Variables

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Savalei, Victoria; Bentler, Peter M.

2009-01-01

A well-known ad-hoc approach to conducting structural equation modeling with missing data is to obtain a saturated maximum likelihood (ML) estimate of the population covariance matrix and then to use this estimate in the complete data ML fitting function to obtain parameter estimates. This 2-stage (TS) approach is appealing because it minimizes a…

Airport Flight Departure Delay Model on Improved BN Structure Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Weidong; Fang, Xiangnong

An high score prior genetic simulated annealing Bayesian network structure learning algorithm (HSPGSA) by combining genetic algorithm(GA) with simulated annealing algorithm(SAA) is developed. The new algorithm provides not only with strong global search capability of GA, but also with strong local hill climb search capability of SAA. The structure with the highest score is prior selected. In the mean time, structures with lower score are also could be choice. It can avoid efficiently prematurity problem by higher score individual wrong direct growing population. Algorithm is applied to flight departure delays analysis in a large hub airport. Based on the flight data a BN model is created. Experiments show that parameters learning can reflect departure delay.

Population structure of Cicada barbara Stål (Hemiptera, Cicadoidea) from the Iberian Peninsula and Morocco based on mitochondrial DNA analysis.

PubMed

Pinto-Juma, G A; Quartau, J A; Bruford, M W

2008-02-01

We assess the genetic history and population structure of Cicada barbara in Morocco and the Iberian Peninsula, based on analysis of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene. The divergence between Morocco and the Iberian Peninsula populations was strongly corroborated by the molecular data, suggesting genetically isolated populations with a low level of gene flow. The Ceuta population from Spanish North Africa was more similar to the Iberian populations than the surrounding Moroccan populations, suggesting that the Strait of Gibraltar has not been acting as a strict barrier to dispersal while the Rif Mountains have. The Iberian Peninsula specimens showed a signature of demographic expansion before that which occurred in Morocco, but some of the assumptions related to the demographic parameters should be considered with caution due to the small genetic variation found. The high haplotype diversity found in Morocco implies higher demographic stability than in the Iberian Peninsula populations. These results do not, however, suggest a Moroccan origin for Iberian cicadas; but the most northwest region in Africa, such as Ceuta, might have acted as a southern refuge for Iberian cicadas during the most severe climatic conditions, from where they could expand north when climate improved. The separation of two subspecies within C. barbara (C. barbara lusitanica and C. barbara barbara) finds support with these results.

Refining mortality estimates in shark demographic analyses: a Bayesian inverse matrix approach.

PubMed

Smart, Jonathan J; Punt, André E; White, William T; Simpfendorfer, Colin A

2018-01-18

Leslie matrix models are an important analysis tool in conservation biology that are applied to a diversity of taxa. The standard approach estimates the finite rate of population growth (λ) from a set of vital rates. In some instances, an estimate of λ is available, but the vital rates are poorly understood and can be solved for using an inverse matrix approach. However, these approaches are rarely attempted due to prerequisites of information on the structure of age or stage classes. This study addressed this issue by using a combination of Monte Carlo simulations and the sample-importance-resampling (SIR) algorithm to solve the inverse matrix problem without data on population structure. This approach was applied to the grey reef shark (Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos) from the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) in Australia to determine the demography of this population. Additionally, these outputs were applied to another heavily fished population from Papua New Guinea (PNG) that requires estimates of λ for fisheries management. The SIR analysis determined that natural mortality (M) and total mortality (Z) based on indirect methods have previously been overestimated for C. amblyrhynchos, leading to an underestimated λ. The updated Z distributions determined using SIR provided λ estimates that matched an empirical λ for the GBR population and corrected obvious error in the demographic parameters for the PNG population. This approach provides opportunity for the inverse matrix approach to be applied more broadly to situations where information on population structure is lacking. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Genetic population structure of the malaria vector Anopheles baimaii in north-east India using mitochondrial DNA

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Anopheles baimaii is a primary vector of human malaria in the forest settings of Southeast Asia including the north-eastern region of India. Here, the genetic population structure and the basic population genetic parameters of An. baimaii in north-east India were estimated using DNA sequences of the mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase sub unit II (COII) gene. Methods Anopheles baimaii were collected from 26 geo-referenced locations across the seven north-east Indian states and the COII gene was sequenced from 176 individuals across these sites. Fifty-seven COII sequences of An. baimaii from six locations in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand from a previous study were added to this dataset. Altogether, 233 sequences were grouped into eight population groups, to facilitate analyses of genetic diversity, population structure and population history. Results A star-shaped median joining haplotype network, unimodal mismatch distribution and significantly negative neutrality tests indicated population expansion in An. baimaii with the start of expansion estimated to be ~0.243 million years before present (MYBP) in north-east India. The populations of An. baimaii from north-east India had the highest haplotype and nucleotide diversity with all other populations having a subset of this diversity, likely as the result of range expansion from north-east India. The north-east Indian populations were genetically distinct from those in Bangladesh, Myanmar and Thailand, indicating that mountains, such as the Arakan mountain range between north-east India and Myanmar, are a significant barrier to gene flow. Within north-east India, there was no genetic differentiation among populations with the exception of the Central 2 population in the Barail hills area that was significantly differentiated from other populations. Conclusions The high genetic distinctiveness of the Central 2 population in the Barail hills area of the north-east India should be confirmed and its epidemiological significance further investigated. The lack of genetic population structure in the other north-east Indian populations likely reflects large population sizes of An. baimaii that, historically, were able to disperse through continuous forest habitats in the north-east India. Additional markers and analytical approaches are required to determine if recent deforestation is now preventing ongoing gene flow. Until such information is acquired, An. baimaii in north-east India should be treated as a single unit for the implementation of vector control measures. PMID:22429500

Assessment of hemoglobin responsiveness to epoetin alfa in patients on hemodialysis using a population pharmacokinetic pharmacodynamic model.

PubMed

Wu, Liviawati; Mould, Diane R; Perez Ruixo, Juan Jose; Doshi, Sameer

2015-10-01

A population pharmacokinetic pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) model describing the effect of epoetin alfa on hemoglobin (Hb) response in hemodialysis patients was developed. Epoetin alfa pharmacokinetics was described using a linear 2-compartment model. PK parameter estimates were similar to previously reported values. A maturation-structured cytokinetic model consisting of 5 compartments linked in a catenary fashion by first-order cell transfer rates following a zero-order input process described the Hb time course. The PD model described 2 subpopulations, one whose Hb response reflected epoetin alfa dosing and a second whose response was unrelated to epoetin alfa dosing. Parameter estimates from the PK/PD model were physiologically reasonable and consistent with published reports. Numerical and visual predictive checks using data from 2 studies were performed. The PK and PD of epoetin alfa were well described by the model. © 2015, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Human judgment vs. quantitative models for the management of ecological resources.

PubMed

Holden, Matthew H; Ellner, Stephen P

2016-07-01

Despite major advances in quantitative approaches to natural resource management, there has been resistance to using these tools in the actual practice of managing ecological populations. Given a managed system and a set of assumptions, translated into a model, optimization methods can be used to solve for the most cost-effective management actions. However, when the underlying assumptions are not met, such methods can potentially lead to decisions that harm the environment and economy. Managers who develop decisions based on past experience and judgment, without the aid of mathematical models, can potentially learn about the system and develop flexible management strategies. However, these strategies are often based on subjective criteria and equally invalid and often unstated assumptions. Given the drawbacks of both methods, it is unclear whether simple quantitative models improve environmental decision making over expert opinion. In this study, we explore how well students, using their experience and judgment, manage simulated fishery populations in an online computer game and compare their management outcomes to the performance of model-based decisions. We consider harvest decisions generated using four different quantitative models: (1) the model used to produce the simulated population dynamics observed in the game, with the values of all parameters known (as a control), (2) the same model, but with unknown parameter values that must be estimated during the game from observed data, (3) models that are structurally different from those used to simulate the population dynamics, and (4) a model that ignores age structure. Humans on average performed much worse than the models in cases 1-3, but in a small minority of scenarios, models produced worse outcomes than those resulting from students making decisions based on experience and judgment. When the models ignored age structure, they generated poorly performing management decisions, but still outperformed students using experience and judgment 66% of the time. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Genetic diversity and variation of Chinese fir from Fujian province and Taiwan, China, based on ISSR markers

PubMed Central

Chen, Yu; Peng, Zhuqing; Wu, Chao; Ma, Zhihui; Ding, Guochang; Cao, Guangqiu; Ruan, Shaoning; Lin, Sizu

2017-01-01

Genetic diversity and variation among 11 populations of Chinese fir from Fujian province and Taiwan were assessed using inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers to reveal the evolutionary relationship in their distribution range in this report. Analysis of genetic parameters of the different populations showed that populations in Fujian province exhibited a greater level of genetic diversity than did the populations in Taiwan. Compared to Taiwan populations, significant limited gene flow were observed among Fujian populations. An UPGMA cluster analysis showed that the most individuals of Taiwan populations formed a single cluster, whereas 6 discrete clusters were formed by each population from Fujian. All populations were divided into 3 main groups and that all 5 populations from Taiwan were gathered into a subgroup combined with 2 populations, Dehua and Liancheng, formed one of the 3 main groups, which indicated relative stronger relatedness. It is supported by a genetic structure analysis. All those results are suggesting different levels of genetic diversity and variation of Chinese fir between Fujian and Taiwan, and indicating different patterns of evolutionary process and local environmental adaption. PMID:28406956

Genetic diversity and variation of Chinese fir from Fujian province and Taiwan, China, based on ISSR markers.

PubMed

Chen, Yu; Peng, Zhuqing; Wu, Chao; Ma, Zhihui; Ding, Guochang; Cao, Guangqiu; Ruan, Shaoning; Lin, Sizu

2017-01-01

Genetic diversity and variation among 11 populations of Chinese fir from Fujian province and Taiwan were assessed using inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers to reveal the evolutionary relationship in their distribution range in this report. Analysis of genetic parameters of the different populations showed that populations in Fujian province exhibited a greater level of genetic diversity than did the populations in Taiwan. Compared to Taiwan populations, significant limited gene flow were observed among Fujian populations. An UPGMA cluster analysis showed that the most individuals of Taiwan populations formed a single cluster, whereas 6 discrete clusters were formed by each population from Fujian. All populations were divided into 3 main groups and that all 5 populations from Taiwan were gathered into a subgroup combined with 2 populations, Dehua and Liancheng, formed one of the 3 main groups, which indicated relative stronger relatedness. It is supported by a genetic structure analysis. All those results are suggesting different levels of genetic diversity and variation of Chinese fir between Fujian and Taiwan, and indicating different patterns of evolutionary process and local environmental adaption.

Modeling oscillations and spiral waves in Dictyostelium populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noorbakhsh, Javad; Schwab, David J.; Sgro, Allyson E.; Gregor, Thomas; Mehta, Pankaj

2015-06-01

Unicellular organisms exhibit elaborate collective behaviors in response to environmental cues. These behaviors are controlled by complex biochemical networks within individual cells and coordinated through cell-to-cell communication. Describing these behaviors requires new mathematical models that can bridge scales—from biochemical networks within individual cells to spatially structured cellular populations. Here we present a family of "multiscale" models for the emergence of spiral waves in the social amoeba Dictyostelium discoideum. Our models exploit new experimental advances that allow for the direct measurement and manipulation of the small signaling molecule cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cAMP) used by Dictyostelium cells to coordinate behavior in cellular populations. Inspired by recent experiments, we model the Dictyostelium signaling network as an excitable system coupled to various preprocessing modules. We use this family of models to study spatially unstructured populations of "fixed" cells by constructing phase diagrams that relate the properties of population-level oscillations to parameters in the underlying biochemical network. We then briefly discuss an extension of our model that includes spatial structure and show how this naturally gives rise to spiral waves. Our models exhibit a wide range of novel phenomena. including a density-dependent frequency change, bistability, and dynamic death due to slow cAMP dynamics. Our modeling approach provides a powerful tool for bridging scales in modeling of Dictyostelium populations.

Games among relatives revisited.

PubMed

Allen, Benjamin; Nowak, Martin A

2015-08-07

We present a simple model for the evolution of social behavior in family-structured, finite sized populations. Interactions are represented as evolutionary games describing frequency-dependent selection. Individuals interact more frequently with siblings than with members of the general population, as quantified by an assortment parameter r, which can be interpreted as "relatedness". Other models, mostly of spatially structured populations, have shown that assortment can promote the evolution of cooperation by facilitating interaction between cooperators, but this effect depends on the details of the evolutionary process. For our model, we find that sibling assortment promotes cooperation in stringent social dilemmas such as the Prisoner's Dilemma, but not necessarily in other situations. These results are obtained through straightforward calculations of changes in gene frequency. We also analyze our model using inclusive fitness. We find that the quantity of inclusive fitness does not exist for general games. For special games, where inclusive fitness exists, it provides less information than the straightforward analysis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling Global Spatial-Temporal Evolution of Society: Hyperbolic Growth and Historical Cycles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurkina, E. S.

2011-09-01

The global historical processes are under consideration; and laws of global evolution of the world community are studied. The world community is considered as a united complex self-developing and self-organizing system. It supposed that the main driving force of social-economical evolution was the positive feedback between the population size and the level of technological development, which was a cause of growth in blow-up regime both of population and of global economic indexes. The study is supported by the results of mathematical modeling founded on a nonlinear heat equation with a source. Every social-economical epoch characterizes by own specific spatial distributed structures. So the global dynamics of world community during the whole history is investigated throughout the prism of the developing of spatial-temporal structures. The model parameters have been chosen so that 1) total population follows stable hyperbolic growth, consistently with the demographic data; 2) the evolution of the World-System goes through 11 stages corresponding to the main historical epochs.

Quantitative Phase Analysis of Plasma-Treated High-Silica Materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kosmachev, P. V.; Abzaev, Yu. A.; Vlasov, V. A.

2018-06-01

The paper presents the X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis of the crystal structure of SiO2 in two modifications, namely quartzite and quartz sand before and after plasma treatment. Plasma treatment enables the raw material to melt and evaporate after which the material quenches and condenses to form nanoparticles. The Rietveld refinement method is used to identify the lattice parameters of SiO2 phases. It is found that after plasma treatment SiO2 oxides are in the amorphous state, which are modeled within the microcanonical ensemble. Experiments show that amorphous phases are stable, and model X-ray reflection intensities approximate the experimental XRD patterns with fine precision. Within the modeling, full information is obtained for SiO2 crystalline and amorphous phases, which includes atom arrangement, structural parameters, atomic population of silicon and oxygen atoms in lattice sites.

Three Decades of Farmed Escapees in the Wild: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Atlantic Salmon Population Genetic Structure throughout Norway

PubMed Central

Glover, Kevin A.; Quintela, María; Wennevik, Vidar; Besnier, François; Sørvik, Anne G. E.; Skaala, Øystein

2012-01-01

Each year, hundreds of thousands of domesticated farmed Atlantic salmon escape into the wild. In Norway, which is the world’s largest commercial producer, many native Atlantic salmon populations have experienced large numbers of escapees on the spawning grounds for the past 15–30 years. In order to study the potential genetic impact, we conducted a spatio-temporal analysis of 3049 fish from 21 populations throughout Norway, sampled in the period 1970–2010. Based upon the analysis of 22 microsatellites, individual admixture, FST and increased allelic richness revealed temporal genetic changes in six of the populations. These changes were highly significant in four of them. For example, 76% and 100% of the fish comprising the contemporary samples for the rivers Vosso and Opo were excluded from their respective historical samples at P = 0.001. Based upon several genetic parameters, including simulations, genetic drift was excluded as the primary cause of the observed genetic changes. In the remaining 15 populations, some of which had also been exposed to high numbers of escapees, clear genetic changes were not detected. Significant population genetic structuring was observed among the 21 populations in the historical (global FST = 0.038) and contemporary data sets (global FST = 0.030), although significantly reduced with time (P = 0.008). This reduction was especially distinct when looking at the six populations displaying temporal changes (global FST dropped from 0.058 to 0.039, P = 0.006). We draw two main conclusions: 1. The majority of the historical population genetic structure throughout Norway still appears to be retained, suggesting a low to modest overall success of farmed escapees in the wild; 2. Genetic introgression of farmed escapees in native salmon populations has been strongly population-dependent, and it appears to be linked with the density of the native population. PMID:22916215

Phylogeography and historical demography of the Pacific Sierra mackerel (Scomberomorus sierra) in the Eastern Pacific

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Testing connectivity among populations of exploited marine fish is a main concern for the development of conservation strategies. Even though marine species are often considered to display low levels of population structure, barriers to dispersal found in the marine realm may restrict gene flow and cause genetic divergence of populations. The Pacific Sierra mackerel (Scomberomorus sierra) is a pelagic fish species distributed throughout the tropical and subtropical waters of the eastern Pacific. Seasonal spawning in different areas across the species range, as well as a limited dispersal, may result in a population genetic structure. Identification of genetically discrete units is important in the proper conservation of the fishery. Results Samples collected from the Eastern Pacific, including the areas of main abundance of the species, presented high levels of mtDNA genetic diversity and a highly significant divergence. At least two genetically discrete groups were detected in the northern (Sinaloa) and central areas (Oaxaca and Chiapas) of the species range, exhibiting slight genetic differences with respect to the samples collected in the southern region (Peru), together with a "chaotic genetic patchiness" pattern of differentiation and no evidence of isolation by distance. Historical demographic parameters supported the occurrence of past population expansions, whereas the divergence times between populations coincided with the occurrence of glacial maxima some 220 000 years ago. Conclusions The population genetic structure detected for the Pacific Sierra mackerel is associated with a limited dispersal between the main abundance areas that are usually linked to the spawning sites of the species. Population expansions have coincided with glacial-interglacial episodes in the Pleistocene, but they may also be related to the increase in the SST and with upwelling areas in the EEP since the early Pleistocene. PMID:20438637

The relevance of time series in molecular ecology and conservation biology.

PubMed

Habel, Jan C; Husemann, Martin; Finger, Aline; Danley, Patrick D; Zachos, Frank E

2014-05-01

The genetic structure of a species is shaped by the interaction of contemporary and historical factors. Analyses of individuals from the same population sampled at different points in time can help to disentangle the effects of current and historical forces and facilitate the understanding of the forces driving the differentiation of populations. The use of such time series allows for the exploration of changes at the population and intraspecific levels over time. Material from museum collections plays a key role in understanding and evaluating observed population structures, especially if large numbers of individuals have been sampled from the same locations at multiple time points. In these cases, changes in population structure can be assessed empirically. The development of new molecular markers relying on short DNA fragments (such as microsatellites or single nucleotide polymorphisms) allows for the analysis of long-preserved and partially degraded samples. Recently developed techniques to construct genome libraries with a reduced complexity and next generation sequencing and their associated analysis pipelines have the potential to facilitate marker development and genotyping in non-model species. In this review, we discuss the problems with sampling and available marker systems for historical specimens and demonstrate that temporal comparative studies are crucial for the estimation of important population genetic parameters and to measure empirically the effects of recent habitat alteration. While many of these analyses can be performed with samples taken at a single point in time, the measurements are more robust if multiple points in time are studied. Furthermore, examining the effects of habitat alteration, population declines, and population bottlenecks is only possible if samples before and after the respective events are included. © 2013 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2013 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

Application of Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis to biomathematical modeling of respirable dust in US and UK coal miners

PubMed Central

Sweeney, Lisa M.; Parker, Ann; Haber, Lynne T.; Tran, C. Lang; Kuempel, Eileen D.

2015-01-01

A biomathematical model was previously developed to describe the long-term clearance and retention of particles in the lungs of coal miners. The model structure was evaluated and parameters were estimated in two data sets, one from the United States and one from the United Kingdom. The three-compartment model structure consists of deposition of inhaled particles in the alveolar region, competing processes of either clearance from the alveolar region or translocation to the lung interstitial region, and very slow, irreversible sequestration of interstitialized material in the lung-associated lymph nodes. Point estimates of model parameter values were estimated separately for the two data sets. In the current effort, Bayesian population analysis using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was used to recalibrate the model while improving assessments of parameter variability and uncertainty. When model parameters were calibrated simultaneously to the two data sets, agreement between the derived parameters for the two groups was very good, and the central tendency values were similar to those derived from the deterministic approach. These findings are relevant to the proposed update of the ICRP human respiratory tract model with revisions to the alveolar-interstitial region based on this long-term particle clearance and retention model. PMID:23454101

Demographic modelling reveals a history of divergence with gene flow for a glacially tied stonefly in a changing post-Pleistocene landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hotaling, Scott; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Giersch, J. Joseph; Ali, Omar; Jordan, Steve; Miller, Michael R.; Luikart, Gordon; Weisrock, David W.

2018-01-01

AimClimate warming is causing extensive loss of glaciers in mountainous regions, yet our understanding of how glacial recession influences evolutionary processes and genetic diversity is limited. Linking genetic structure with the influences shaping it can improve understanding of how species respond to environmental change. Here, we used genome-scale data and demographic modelling to resolve the evolutionary history of Lednia tumana, a rare, aquatic insect endemic to alpine streams. We also employed a range of widely used data filtering approaches to quantify how they influenced population structure results.LocationAlpine streams in the Rocky Mountains of Glacier National Park, Montana, USA.TaxonLednia tumana, a stonefly (Order Plecoptera) in the family Nemouridae.MethodsWe generated single nucleotide polymorphism data through restriction-site associated DNA sequencing to assess contemporary patterns of genetic structure for 11 L. tumana populations. Using identified clusters, we assessed demographic history through model selection and parameter estimation in a coalescent framework. During population structure analyses, we filtered our data to assess the influence of singletons, missing data and total number of markers on results.ResultsContemporary patterns of population structure indicate that L. tumana exhibits a pattern of isolation-by-distance among populations within three genetic clusters that align with geography. Mean pairwise genetic differentiation (FST) among populations was 0.033. Coalescent-based demographic modelling supported divergence with gene flow among genetic clusters since the end of the Pleistocene (~13-17 kya), likely reflecting the south-to-north recession of ice sheets that accumulated during the Wisconsin glaciation.Main conclusionsWe identified a link between glacial retreat, evolutionary history and patterns of genetic diversity for a range-restricted stonefly imperiled by climate change. This finding included a history of divergence with gene flow, an unexpected conclusion for a mountaintop species. Beyond L. tumana, this study demonstrates the complexity of assessing genetic structure for weakly differentiated species, shows the degree to which rare alleles and missing data may influence results, and highlights the usefulness of genome-scale data to extend population genetic inquiry in non-model species.

Speciation in parasites: a population genetics approach.

PubMed

Huyse, Tine; Poulin, Robert; Théron, André

2005-10-01

Parasite speciation and host-parasite coevolution should be studied at both macroevolutionary and microevolutionary levels. Studies on a macroevolutionary scale provide an essential framework for understanding the origins of parasite lineages and the patterns of diversification. However, because coevolutionary interactions can be highly divergent across time and space, it is important to quantify and compare the phylogeographic variation in both the host and the parasite throughout their geographical range. Furthermore, to evaluate demographic parameters that are relevant to population genetics structure, such as effective population size and parasite transmission, parasite populations must be studied using neutral genetic markers. Previous emphasis on larger-scale studies means that the connection between microevolutionary and macroevolutionary events is poorly explored. In this article, we focus on the spatial fragmentation of parasites and the population genetics processes behind their diversification in an effort to bridge the micro- and macro-scales.

Contrasting effects of geographical separation on the genetic population structure of sympatric species of mites in avocado orchards.

PubMed

Guzman-Valencia, S; Santillán-Galicia, M T; Guzmán-Franco, A W; González-Hernández, H; Carrillo-Benítez, M G; Suárez-Espinoza, J

2014-10-01

Oligonychus punicae and Oligonychus perseae (Acari: Tetranychidae) are the most important mite species affecting avocado orchards in Mexico. Here we used nucleotide sequence data from segments of the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacers (ITS1 and ITS2) and mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) genes to assess the phylogenetic relationships between both sympatric mite species and, using only ITS sequence data, examine genetic variation and population structure in both species, to test the hypothesis that, although both species co-occur, their genetic population structures are different in both Michoacan state (main producer) and Mexico state. Phylogenetic analysis showed a clear separation between both species using ITS and COI sequence information. Haplotype network analysis done on 24 samples of O. punicae revealed low genetic diversity with only three haplotypes found but a significant geographical population structure confirmed by analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) and Kimura-2-parameter (K2P) analyses. In addition, a Mantel test revealed that geographical isolation was a factor responsible for the genetic differentiation. In contrast, analyses of 22 samples of O. perseae revealed high genetic diversity with 15 haplotypes found but no geographical structure confirmed by the AMOVA, K2P and Mantel test analyses. We have suggested that geographical separation is one of the most important factors driving genetic variation, but that it affected each species differently. The role of the ecology of these species on our results, and the importance of our findings in the development of monitoring and control strategies are discussed.

Global population structure and adaptive evolution of aflatoxin-producing fungi.

PubMed

Moore, Geromy G; Olarte, Rodrigo A; Horn, Bruce W; Elliott, Jacalyn L; Singh, Rakhi; O'Neal, Carolyn J; Carbone, Ignazio

2017-11-01

Aflatoxins produced by several species in Aspergillus section Flavi are a significant problem in agriculture and a continuous threat to human health. To provide insights into the biology and global population structure of species in section Flavi , a total of 1,304 isolates were sampled across six species ( A. flavus, A. parasiticus, A. nomius, A. caelatus, A. tamarii, and A. alliaceus ) from single fields in major peanut-growing regions in Georgia (USA), Australia, Argentina, India, and Benin (Africa). We inferred maximum-likelihood phylogenies for six loci, both combined and separately, including two aflatoxin cluster regions ( aflM/alfN and aflW/aflX ) and four noncluster regions ( amdS, trpC, mfs and MAT ), to examine population structure and history. We also employed principal component and STRUCTURE analysis to identify genetic clusters and their associations with six different categories (geography, species, precipitation, temperature, aflatoxin chemotype profile, and mating type). Overall, seven distinct genetic clusters were inferred, some of which were more strongly structured by G chemotype diversity than geography. Populations of A. flavus S in Benin were genetically distinct from all other section Flavi species for the loci examined, which suggests genetic isolation. Evidence of trans-speciation within two noncluster regions, whereby A. flavus S BG strains from Australia share haplotypes with either A. flavus or A. parasiticus , was observed. Finally, while clay soil and precipitation may influence species richness in Aspergillus section Flavi , other region-specific environmental and genetic parameters must also be considered.

Analysis of the SNPforID 52-plex markers in four Native American populations from Venezuela.

PubMed

Ruiz, Y; Chiurillo, M A; Borjas, L; Phillips, C; Lareu, M V; Carracedo, Á

2012-09-01

The SNPforID 52-plex single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were analyzed in four native Venezuelan populations: Bari, Pemon, Panare and Warao. None of the population-locus combinations showed significant departure from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Calculation of forensic and statistical parameters showed lower values of genetic diversity in comparison with African and European populations, as well as other, admixed populations of neighboring regions of Caribbean, Central and South America. Significant levels of divergence were observed between the four Native Venezuelan populations as well as with other previously studied populations. Analysis of the 52-plex SNP loci with Structure provided an optimum number of population clusters of three, corresponding to Africans, Europeans and Native Americans. Analysis of admixed populations indicated a range of membership proportions for ancestral populations consisting of Native American, African and European components. The genetic differences observed in the Native American groups suggested by the 52 SNPs typed in our study are in agreement with current knowledge of the demographic history of the Americas. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genomic effects on advertisement call structure in diploid and triploid hybrid waterfrogs (Anura, Pelophylax esculentus)

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In anurans, differences in male mating calls have intensively been studied with respect to taxonomic classification, phylogeographic comparisons among different populations and sexual selection. Although overall successful, there is often much unexplained variation in these studies. Potential causes for such variation include differences among genotypes and breeding systems, as well as differences between populations. We investigated how these three factors affect call properties in male water frogs of Pelophylax lessonae (genotype LL), P. ridibundus (RR) and their interspecific hybrid P. esculentus which comes in diploid (LR) and triploid types (LLR, LRR). Results We investigated five call parameters that all showed a genomic dosage effect, i.e. they either decreased or increased with the L/R ratio in the order LL-LLR-LR-LRR-RR. Not all parameters differentiated equally well between the five genotypes, but combined they provided a good separation. Two of the five call parameters were also affected by the breeding system. Calls of diploid LR males varied, depending on whether these males mated with one or both of the parental species (diploid systems) or triploid hybrids (mixed ploidy systems). With the exception of the northernmost mixed-ploidy population, call differences were not related to the geographic location of the population and they were not correlated with genetic distances in the R and L genomes. Conclusions We found an influence of all three tested factors on call parameters, with the effect size decreasing from genotype through breeding system to geographic location of the population. Overall, results were in line with predictions from a dosage effect in L/R ratios, but in three call parameters all three hybrid types were more similar to one or the other parental species. Also calls of diploid hybrids varied between breeding systems in agreement with the sexual host required for successful reproduction. The lack of hybrid call differences in a mixed-ploidy population at the northern edge of the water frog distribution is likely to be associated with genetic particularities, including a) low genetic variability and/or b) a local loss of genes coding for genotype-dependent call differentiation under conditions where female discrimination between diploid and triploid males is not beneficial. PMID:24304922

Match probabilities in a finite, subdivided population

PubMed Central

Malaspinas, Anna-Sapfo; Slatkin, Montgomery; Song, Yun S.

2011-01-01

We generalize a recently introduced graphical framework to compute the probability that haplotypes or genotypes of two individuals drawn from a finite, subdivided population match. As in the previous work, we assume an infinite-alleles model. We focus on the case of a population divided into two subpopulations, but the underlying framework can be applied to a general model of population subdivision. We examine the effect of population subdivision on the match probabilities and the accuracy of the product rule which approximates multi-locus match probabilities as a product of one-locus match probabilities. We quantify the deviation from predictions of the product rule by R, the ratio of the multi-locus match probability to the product of the one-locus match probabilities.We carry out the computation for two loci and find that ignoring subdivision can lead to underestimation of the match probabilities if the population under consideration actually has subdivision structure and the individuals originate from the same subpopulation. On the other hand, under a given model of population subdivision, we find that the ratio R for two loci is only slightly greater than 1 for a large range of symmetric and asymmetric migration rates. Keeping in mind that the infinite-alleles model is not the appropriate mutation model for STR loci, we conclude that, for two loci and biologically reasonable parameter values, population subdivision may lead to results that disfavor innocent suspects because of an increase in identity-by-descent in finite populations. On the other hand, for the same range of parameters, population subdivision does not lead to a substantial increase in linkage disequilibrium between loci. Those results are consistent with established practice. PMID:21266180

Spatial Heterogeneity as a Genetic Mixing Mechanism in Highly Philopatric Colonial Seabirds

PubMed Central

Cristofari, Robin; Trucchi, Emiliano; Whittington, Jason D.; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Gachot-Neveu, Hélène; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Le Maho, Yvon; Le Bohec, Céline

2015-01-01

How genetic diversity is maintained in philopatric colonial systems remains unclear, and understanding the dynamic balance of philopatry and dispersal at all spatial scales is essential to the study of the evolution of coloniality. In the King penguin, Aptenodytes patagonicus, return rates of post-fledging chicks to their natal sub-colony are remarkably high. Empirical studies have shown that adults return year after year to their previous breeding territories within a radius of a few meters. Yet, little reliable data are available on intra- and inter-colonial dispersal in this species. Here, we present the first fine-scale study of the genetic structure in a king penguin colony in the Crozet Archipelago. Samples were collected from individual chicks and analysed at 8 microsatellite loci. Precise geolocation data of hatching sites and selective pressures associated with habitat features were recorded for all sampling locations. We found that despite strong natal and breeding site fidelity, king penguins retain a high degree of panmixia and genetic diversity. Yet, genetic structure appears markedly heterogeneous across the colony, with higher-than-expected inbreeding levels, and local inbreeding and relatedness hotspots that overlap predicted higher-quality nesting locations. This points towards heterogeneous population structure at the sub-colony level, in which fine-scale environmental features drive local philopatric behaviour, while lower-quality patches may act as genetic mixing mechanisms at the colony level. These findings show how a lack of global genetic structuring can emerge from small-scale heterogeneity in ecological parameters, as opposed to the classical model of homogeneous dispersal. Our results also emphasize the importance of sampling design for estimation of population parameters in colonial seabirds, as at high spatial resolution, basic genetic features are shown to be location-dependent. Finally, this study stresses the importance of understanding intra-colonial dispersal and genetic mixing mechanisms in order to better estimate species-wide gene flows and population dynamics. PMID:25680103

Spatial heterogeneity as a genetic mixing mechanism in highly philopatric colonial seabirds.

PubMed

Cristofari, Robin; Trucchi, Emiliano; Whittington, Jason D; Vigetta, Stéphanie; Gachot-Neveu, Hélène; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Le Maho, Yvon; Le Bohec, Céline

2015-01-01

How genetic diversity is maintained in philopatric colonial systems remains unclear, and understanding the dynamic balance of philopatry and dispersal at all spatial scales is essential to the study of the evolution of coloniality. In the King penguin, Aptenodytes patagonicus, return rates of post-fledging chicks to their natal sub-colony are remarkably high. Empirical studies have shown that adults return year after year to their previous breeding territories within a radius of a few meters. Yet, little reliable data are available on intra- and inter-colonial dispersal in this species. Here, we present the first fine-scale study of the genetic structure in a king penguin colony in the Crozet Archipelago. Samples were collected from individual chicks and analysed at 8 microsatellite loci. Precise geolocation data of hatching sites and selective pressures associated with habitat features were recorded for all sampling locations. We found that despite strong natal and breeding site fidelity, king penguins retain a high degree of panmixia and genetic diversity. Yet, genetic structure appears markedly heterogeneous across the colony, with higher-than-expected inbreeding levels, and local inbreeding and relatedness hotspots that overlap predicted higher-quality nesting locations. This points towards heterogeneous population structure at the sub-colony level, in which fine-scale environmental features drive local philopatric behaviour, while lower-quality patches may act as genetic mixing mechanisms at the colony level. These findings show how a lack of global genetic structuring can emerge from small-scale heterogeneity in ecological parameters, as opposed to the classical model of homogeneous dispersal. Our results also emphasize the importance of sampling design for estimation of population parameters in colonial seabirds, as at high spatial resolution, basic genetic features are shown to be location-dependent. Finally, this study stresses the importance of understanding intra-colonial dispersal and genetic mixing mechanisms in order to better estimate species-wide gene flows and population dynamics.

Genetic differentiation among migrant and resident populations of the threatened Asian houbara bustard.

PubMed

Riou, Samuel; Combreau, Olivier; Judas, Jacky; Lawrence, Mark; Al Baidani, Mohamed Saleh; Pitra, Christian

2012-01-01

The Asian houbara bustard Chlamydotis macqueenii is a partial migrant of conservation concern found in deserts of central Asia and the Middle East. In the southern part of the species range, resident populations have been greatly fragmented and reduced by sustained human pressure. In the north, birds migrate from breeding grounds between West Kazakhstan and Mongolia to wintering areas in the Middle East and south central Asia. Extensive satellite tracking has shown substantial partitioning in migration routes and wintering grounds, suggesting a longitudinal barrier to present-day gene flow among migrants. In this context, we explored genetic population structure using 17 microsatellite loci and sampling 108 individuals across the range. We identified limited but significant overall differentiation (F(CT) = 0.045), which was overwhelmingly due to the differentiation of resident Arabian populations, particularly the one from Yemen, relative to the central Asian populations. Population structure within the central Asian group was not detectable with the exception of subtle differentiation of West Kazakh birds on the western flyway, relative to eastern populations. We interpret these patterns as evidence of recent common ancestry in Asia, coupled with a longitudinal barrier to present-day gene flow along the migratory divide, which has yet to translate into genetic divergence. These results provide key parameters for a coherent conservation strategy aimed at preserving genetic diversity and migration routes.

Bayesian Parameter Inference and Model Selection by Population Annealing in Systems Biology

PubMed Central

Murakami, Yohei

2014-01-01

Parameter inference and model selection are very important for mathematical modeling in systems biology. Bayesian statistics can be used to conduct both parameter inference and model selection. Especially, the framework named approximate Bayesian computation is often used for parameter inference and model selection in systems biology. However, Monte Carlo methods needs to be used to compute Bayesian posterior distributions. In addition, the posterior distributions of parameters are sometimes almost uniform or very similar to their prior distributions. In such cases, it is difficult to choose one specific value of parameter with high credibility as the representative value of the distribution. To overcome the problems, we introduced one of the population Monte Carlo algorithms, population annealing. Although population annealing is usually used in statistical mechanics, we showed that population annealing can be used to compute Bayesian posterior distributions in the approximate Bayesian computation framework. To deal with un-identifiability of the representative values of parameters, we proposed to run the simulations with the parameter ensemble sampled from the posterior distribution, named “posterior parameter ensemble”. We showed that population annealing is an efficient and convenient algorithm to generate posterior parameter ensemble. We also showed that the simulations with the posterior parameter ensemble can, not only reproduce the data used for parameter inference, but also capture and predict the data which was not used for parameter inference. Lastly, we introduced the marginal likelihood in the approximate Bayesian computation framework for Bayesian model selection. We showed that population annealing enables us to compute the marginal likelihood in the approximate Bayesian computation framework and conduct model selection depending on the Bayes factor. PMID:25089832

Population genetic structure of Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae): host-driven genetic differentiation in China.

PubMed

Meng, Lixue; Wang, Yongmo; Wei, Wen-Hua; Zhang, Hongyu

2018-01-24

The Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama is a major pest in citrus production, transmitting Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus. It has spread widely across eastern and southern China. Unfortunately, little is known about the genetic diversity and population structure of D. citri, making pest control difficult. In this study, nine specifically developed SSR markers and three known mitochondrial DNA were used for population genetics study of D. citri using 225 samples collected from all 7 distribution regions in China. Based on the SSR data, D. citri was found highly diverse with a mean observed heterozygosity of 0.50, and three subgroups were structured by host plant: (i) Shatangju, NF mandarin and Ponkan; (ii) Murraya paniculata and Lemon; (iii) Citrus unshiu, Bingtangcheng, Summer orange and Navel. No significant genetic differences were found with mtDNA data. We suggested the host-associated divergence is likely to have occurred very recently. A unimodal distribution of paired differences, the negative and significant Tajima's D and Fu's F S parameters among mtDNA suggested a recent demographic expansion. The extensive citrus cultivation and increased suitable living habitat was recommended as a key for this expansion event.

Coalescent Theory Analysis of Population Collapse and Recovery in a Neutral Evolution Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

King, Dawn; Bahar, Sonya

As we move through the Anthropocene Epoch, human-driven climate change is predicted to accelerate extinction risk in the near future. Therefore, understanding basic underlying mechanisms of population loss and recovery could be paramount to saving key species in changing ecosystems. Here, we present an evolutionary model that investigates the dynamics of population collapse and recovery following a simulated mass extinction. Previously, we have shown that nonequilibrium, continuous phase transitions of the directed percolation universality class occur as a function of two different control parameters: the mutability, μ, which dictates how phenotypically different an offspring can be from its parent, and the death probability, δ, which probabilistically removes organisms within each generation. Here, we characterize the phylogenetic tree structures at two levels of biological organization--the organism and species level. Using methods from coalescent theory, we examine the phylogenetic tree structures at, and above, criticality, by considering common descent. The times to most recent common ancestor show phase transition behavior, as well as scale-free branching behavior at both levels of organization. We further examine these genealogical structures pre- and post-extinction. This research was supported by funding from the James S. McDonnell Foundation.

Influence of local demography on asymptotic and transient dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation.

PubMed

Ozgul, Arpat; Oli, Madan K; Armitage, Kenneth B; Blumstein, Daniel T; Van Vuren, Dirk H

2009-04-01

Despite recent advances in biodemography and metapopulation ecology, we still have limited understanding of how local demographic parameters influence short- and long-term metapopulation dynamics. We used long-term data from 17 local populations, along with the recently developed methods of matrix metapopulation modeling and transient sensitivity analysis, to investigate the influence of local demography on long-term (asymptotic) versus short-term (transient) dynamics of a yellow-bellied marmot metapopulation in Colorado. Both long- and short-term dynamics depended primarily on a few colony sites and were highly sensitive to changes in demography at these sites, particularly in survival of reproductive adult females. Interestingly, the relative importance of sites differed between long- and short-term dynamics; the spatial structure and local population sizes, while insignificant for asymptotic dynamics, were influential on transient dynamics. However, considering the spatial structure was uninformative about the relative influence of local demography on metapopulation dynamics. The vital rates that were the most influential on local dynamics were also the most influential on both long- and short-term metapopulation dynamics. Our results show that an explicit consideration of local demography is essential for a complete understanding of the dynamics and persistence of spatially structured populations.

Modeling and Analysis of a Nonlinear Age-Structured Model for Tumor Cell Populations with Quiescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Zijian; Chen, Jing; Pang, Jianhua; Bi, Ping; Ruan, Shigui

2018-05-01

We present a nonlinear first-order hyperbolic partial differential equation model to describe age-structured tumor cell populations with proliferating and quiescent phases at the avascular stage in vitro. The division rate of the proliferating cells is assumed to be nonlinear due to the limitation of the nutrient and space. The model includes a proportion of newborn cells that enter directly the quiescent phase with age zero. This proportion can reflect the effect of treatment by drugs such as erlotinib. The existence and uniqueness of solutions are established. The local and global stabilities of the trivial steady state are investigated. The existence and local stability of the positive steady state are also analyzed. Numerical simulations are performed to verify the results and to examine the impacts of parameters on the nonlinear dynamics of the model.

Structured models of infectious disease: inference with discrete data

PubMed Central

Metcalf, C.J.E.; Lessler, J.; Klepac, P.; Morice, A.; Grenfell, B.T.; Bjørnstad, O.N.

2014-01-01

The usage of structured population models can make substantial contributions to public health, particularly for infections where clinical outcomes vary over age. There are three theoretical challenges in implementing such analyses: i) developing an appropriate framework that models both demographic and epidemiological transitions; ii) parameterizing the framework, where parameters may be based on data ranging from the biological course of infection, basic patterns of human demography, specific characteristics of population growth, and details of vaccination regimes implemented; and iii) evaluating public health strategies in the face of changing human demography. We illustrate the general approach by developing a model of rubella in Costa Rica. The demographic profile of this infection is a crucial aspect of its public health impact, and we use a transient perturbation analysis to explore the impact of changing human demography on immunization strategies implemented. PMID:22178687

Population structure, density and food sources of Terebralia palustris (Potamididae: Gastropoda) in a low intertidal Avicennia marina mangrove stand (Inhaca Island, Mozambique)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Penha-Lopes, Gil; Bouillon, Steven; Mangion, Perrine; Macia, Adriano; Paula, José

2009-09-01

Population structure and distribution of Terebralia palustris were compared with the environmental parameters within microhabitats in a monospecific stand of Avicennia marina in southern Mozambique. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses of T. palustris and potential food sources (leaves, pneumatophore epiphytes, and surface sediments) were examined to establish the feeding preferences of T. palustris. Stable isotope signatures of individuals of different size classes and from different microhabitats were compared with local food sources. Samples of surface sediments 2.5-10 m apart showed some variation (-21.2‰ to -23.0‰) in δ13C, probably due to different contributions from seagrasses, microalgae and mangrove leaves, while δ15N values varied between 8.7‰ and 15.8‰, indicating that there is a very high variability within a small-scale microcosm. Stable isotope signatures differed significantly between the T. palustris size classes and between individuals of the same size class, collected in different microhabitats. Results also suggested that smaller individuals feed on sediment, selecting mainly benthic microalgae, while larger individuals feed on sediment, epiphytes and mangrove leaves. Correlations were found between environmental parameters and gastropod population structure and distribution vs. the feeding preferences of individuals of different size classes and in different microhabitats. While organic content and the abundance of leaves were parameters that correlated best with the total density of gastropods (>85%), the abundance of pneumatophores and leaves, as well as grain size, correlated better with the gastropod size distribution (>65%). Young individuals (height < 3 cm) occur predominantly in microhabitats characterized by a low density of leaf litter and pneumatophores, reduced organic matter and larger grain size, these being characteristic of lower intertidal open areas that favour benthic microalgal growth. With increasing shell height, T. palustris individuals start occupying microhabitats nearer the mangrove trees characterized by large densities of pneumatophores and litter, as well as sediments of smaller grain size, leading to higher organic matter availability in the sediment.

Stellar populations in the dwarf elliptical galaxy NGC 185

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lee, Myung G.; Freedman, Wendy L.; Madore, Barry F.

1993-01-01

The study presents BVRI CCD photometry of about 5300 stars in the central area of the dwarf elliptical galaxy NGC 185 in the Local Group. The color-magnitude diagram shows three distinct stellar populations: a dominant RGB population, AGB stars located above the tip of the RGB stars, and a small number of young stars having blue to yellow colors. The foreground reddening is estimated to be 0.19 +/- 0.03 mag using the (B - V) - (V - I) diagram for the bright foreground stars with good photometry. Surface photometry of the central area of NGC 185 is presented; it shows that the colors become rapidly bluer inside R of about 10 arcsec. Structural parameters indicate that the mass-to-luminosity ratio ranges from 3 to 5.

Neighbourhood reaction in the evolution of cooperation.

PubMed

Yang, Guoli; Zhang, Weiming; Xiu, Baoxin

2015-05-07

Combining evolutionary games with adaptive networks, an entangled model between strategy evolution and structure adaptation is researched in this paper. We consider a large population of cooperators C and defectors D placed in the networks, playing the repeated prisoner׳s dilemma (PD) games. Because of the conflicts between social welfare and personal rationality, both strategy and structure are allowed to change. In this paper, the dynamics of strategy originates form the partner imitation based on social learning and the dynamics of structure is driven by the active linking and neighbourhood reaction. Notably, the neighbourhood reaction is investigated considering the changes of interfaces between cooperators and defectors, where some neighbours may get away from the interface once the focal agent changes to different strategy. A rich landscape is demonstrated by changing various embedding parameters, which sheds light upon that reacting promptly to the shifted neighbour will promote the prevalence of cooperation. Our model encapsulates the dynamics of strategy, reaction and structure into the evolutionary games, which manifests some intriguing principles in the competition between two groups in natural populations, artificial systems and even human societies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fixation probabilities on superstars, revisited and revised.

PubMed

Jamieson-Lane, Alastair; Hauert, Christoph

2015-10-07

Population structures can be crucial determinants of evolutionary processes. For the Moran process on graphs certain structures suppress selective pressure, while others amplify it (Lieberman et al., 2005). Evolutionary amplifiers suppress random drift and enhance selection. Recently, some results for the most powerful known evolutionary amplifier, the superstar, have been invalidated by a counter example (Díaz et al., 2013). Here we correct the original proof and derive improved upper and lower bounds, which indicate that the fixation probability remains close to 1-1/(r(4)H) for population size N→∞ and structural parameter H⪢1. This correction resolves the differences between the two aforementioned papers. We also confirm that in the limit N,H→∞ superstars remain capable of eliminating random drift and hence of providing arbitrarily strong selective advantages to any beneficial mutation. In addition, we investigate the robustness of amplification in superstars and find that it appears to be a fragile phenomenon with respect to changes in the selection or mutation processes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of mutation, recombination, population history, and selection on patterns of genetic diversity in Neisseria meningitidis.

PubMed

Jolley, K A; Wilson, D J; Kriz, P; McVean, G; Maiden, M C J

2005-03-01

Patterns of genetic diversity within populations of human pathogens, shaped by the ecology of host-microbe interactions, contain important information about the epidemiological history of infectious disease. Exploiting this information, however, requires a systematic approach that distinguishes the genetic signal generated by epidemiological processes from the effects of other forces, such as recombination, mutation, and population history. Here, a variety of quantitative techniques were employed to investigate multilocus sequence information from isolate collections of Neisseria meningitidis, a major cause of meningitis and septicemia world wide. This allowed quantitative evaluation of alternative explanations for the observed population structure. A coalescent-based approach was employed to estimate the rate of mutation, the rate of recombination, and the size distribution of recombination fragments from samples from disease-associated and carried meningococci obtained in the Czech Republic in 1993 and a global collection of disease-associated isolates collected globally from 1937 to 1996. The parameter estimates were used to reject a model in which genetic structure arose by chance in small populations, and analysis of molecular variation showed that geographically restricted gene flow was unlikely to be the cause of the genetic structure. The genetic differentiation between disease and carriage isolate collections indicated that, whereas certain genotypes were overrepresented among the disease-isolate collections (the "hyperinvasive" lineages), disease-associated and carried meningococci exhibited remarkably little differentiation at the level of individual nucleotide polymorphisms. In combination, these results indicated the repeated action of natural selection on meningococcal populations, possibly arising from the coevolutionary dynamic of host-pathogen interactions.

A new ODE tumor growth modeling based on tumor population dynamics

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oroji, Amin; Omar, Mohd bin; Yarahmadian, Shantia

2015-10-22

In this paper a new mathematical model for the population of tumor growth treated by radiation is proposed. The cells dynamics population in each state and the dynamics of whole tumor population are studied. Furthermore, a new definition of tumor lifespan is presented. Finally, the effects of two main parameters, treatment parameter (q), and repair mechanism parameter (r) on tumor lifespan are probed, and it is showed that the change in treatment parameter (q) highly affects the tumor lifespan.

Relationships among bulk soil physicochemical, biochemical, and microbiological parameters in an organic alfalfa-rice rotation system.

PubMed

Lopes, Ana R; Bello, Diana; Prieto-Fernández, Ángeles; Trasar-Cepeda, Carmen; Manaia, Célia M; Nunes, Olga C

2015-08-01

The microbial communities of bulk soil of rice paddy fields under an ancient organic agriculture regimen, consisting on an alfalfa-rice rotation system, were characterized. The drained soil of two adjacent paddies at different stages of the rotation was compared before rice seeding and after harvesting. The relationships among the soil microbial, physicochemical, and biochemical parameters were investigated using multivariate analyses. In the first year of rice cropping, aerobic cultivable heterotrophic populations correlated with lineages of presumably aerobic bacteria (e.g., Sphingobacteriales, Sphingomonadales). In the second year of rice cropping, the total C content correlated with presumable anaerobic bacteria (e.g., Anaerolineae). Independently of the year of rice cropping, before rice seeding, proteolytic activity correlated positively with the cultivable aerobic heterotrophic and ammonifier populations, the soil catabolic profile and with presumable aerobes (e.g., Sphingobacteriales, Rhizobiales) and anaerobes (e.g., Bacteroidales, Anaerolineae). After harvesting, strongest correlations were observed between cultivable diazotrophic populations and bacterial groups described as comprising N2 fixing members (e.g., Chloroflexi-Ellin6529, Betaproteobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria). It was demonstrated that chemical parameters and microbial functions were correlated with variations on the total bacterial community composition and structure occurring during rice cropping. A better understanding of these correlations and of their implications on soil productivity may be valid contributors for sustainable agriculture practices, based on ancient processes.

Novel microsatellite markers for the oriental fruit moth Grapholita molesta (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) and effects of null alleles on population genetics analyses.

PubMed

Song, W; Cao, L-J; Wang, Y-Z; Li, B-Y; Wei, S-J

2017-06-01

The oriental fruit moth (OFM) Grapholita molesta (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) is an important economic pest of stone and pome fruits worldwide. We sequenced the OFM genome using next-generation sequencing and characterized the microsatellite distribution. In total, 56,674 microsatellites were identified, with 11,584 loci suitable for primer design. Twenty-seven polymorphic microsatellites, including 24 loci with trinucleotide repeat and three with pentanucleotide repeat, were validated in 95 individuals from four natural populations. The allele numbers ranged from 4 to 40, with an average value of 13.7 per locus. A high frequency of null alleles was observed in most loci developed for the OFM. Three marker panels, all of the loci, nine loci with the lowest null allele frequencies, and nine loci with the highest null allele frequencies, were established for population genetics analyses. The null allele influenced estimations of genetic diversity parameters but not the OFM's genetic structure. Both a STRUCTURE analysis and a discriminant analysis of principal components, using the three marker panels, divided the four natural populations into three groups. However, more individuals were incorrectly assigned by the STRUCTURE analysis when the marker panel with the highest null allele frequency was used compared with the other two panels. Our study provides empirical research on the effects of null alleles on population genetics analyses. The microsatellites developed will be valuable markers for genetic studies of the OFM.

Prophylactic ranitidine treatment in critically ill children--a population pharmacokinetic study.

PubMed

Hawwa, Ahmed F; Westwood, Paul M; Collier, Paul S; Millership, Jeffrey S; Yakkundi, Shirish; Thurley, Gillian; Shields, Mike D; Nunn, Anthony J; Halliday, Henry L; McElnay, James C

2013-05-01

To characterize the population pharmacokinetics of ranitidine in critically ill children and to determine the influence of various clinical and demographic factors on its disposition. Data were collected prospectively from 78 paediatric patients (n = 248 plasma samples) who received oral or intravenous ranitidine for prophylaxis against stress ulcers, gastrointestinal bleeding or the treatment of gastro-oesophageal reflux. Plasma samples were analysed using high-performance liquid chromatography, and the data were subjected to population pharmacokinetic analysis using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. A one-compartment model best described the plasma concentration profile, with an exponential structure for interindividual errors and a proportional structure for intra-individual error. After backward stepwise elimination, the final model showed a significant decrease in objective function value (-12.618; P < 0.001) compared with the weight-corrected base model. Final parameter estimates for the population were 32.1 l h(-1) for total clearance and 285 l for volume of distribution, both allometrically modelled for a 70 kg adult. Final estimates for absorption rate constant and bioavailability were 1.31 h(-1) and 27.5%, respectively. No significant relationship was found between age and weight-corrected ranitidine pharmacokinetic parameters in the final model, with the covariate for cardiac failure or surgery being shown to reduce clearance significantly by a factor of 0.46. Currently, ranitidine dose recommendations are based on children's weights. However, our findings suggest that a dosing scheme that takes into consideration both weight and cardiac failure/surgery would be more appropriate in order to avoid administration of higher or more frequent doses than necessary. © 2012 The Authors. British Journal of Clinical Pharmacology © 2012 The British Pharmacological Society.

Demographic models reveal the shape of density dependence for a specialist insect herbivore on variable host plants.

PubMed

Miller, Tom E X

2007-07-01

1. It is widely accepted that density-dependent processes play an important role in most natural populations. However, persistent challenges in our understanding of density-dependent population dynamics include evaluating the shape of the relationship between density and demographic rates (linear, concave, convex), and identifying extrinsic factors that can mediate this relationship. 2. I studied the population dynamics of the cactus bug Narnia pallidicornis on host plants (Opuntia imbricata) that varied naturally in relative reproductive effort (RRE, the proportion of meristems allocated to reproduction), an important plant quality trait. I manipulated per-plant cactus bug densities, quantified subsequent dynamics, and fit stage-structured models to the experimental data to ask if and how density influences demographic parameters. 3. In the field experiment, I found that populations with variable starting densities quickly converged upon similar growth trajectories. In the model-fitting analyses, the data strongly supported a model that defined the juvenile cactus bug retention parameter (joint probability of surviving and not dispersing) as a nonlinear decreasing function of density. The estimated shape of this relationship shifted from concave to convex with increasing host-plant RRE. 4. The results demonstrate that host-plant traits are critical sources of variation in the strength and shape of density dependence in insects, and highlight the utility of integrated experimental-theoretical approaches for identifying processes underlying patterns of change in natural populations.

Chaos and crises in a model for cooperative hunting: a symbolic dynamics approach.

PubMed

Duarte, Jorge; Januário, Cristina; Martins, Nuno; Sardanyés, Josep

2009-12-01

In this work we investigate the population dynamics of cooperative hunting extending the McCann and Yodzis model for a three-species food chain system with a predator, a prey, and a resource species. The new model considers that a given fraction sigma of predators cooperates in prey's hunting, while the rest of the population 1-sigma hunts without cooperation. We use the theory of symbolic dynamics to study the topological entropy and the parameter space ordering of the kneading sequences associated with one-dimensional maps that reproduce significant aspects of the dynamics of the species under several degrees of cooperative hunting. Our model also allows us to investigate the so-called deterministic extinction via chaotic crisis and transient chaos in the framework of cooperative hunting. The symbolic sequences allow us to identify a critical boundary in the parameter spaces (K,C(0)) and (K,sigma) which separates two scenarios: (i) all-species coexistence and (ii) predator's extinction via chaotic crisis. We show that the crisis value of the carrying capacity K(c) decreases at increasing sigma, indicating that predator's populations with high degree of cooperative hunting are more sensitive to the chaotic crises. We also show that the control method of Dhamala and Lai [Phys. Rev. E 59, 1646 (1999)] can sustain the chaotic behavior after the crisis for systems with cooperative hunting. We finally analyze and quantify the inner structure of the target regions obtained with this control method for wider parameter values beyond the crisis, showing a power law dependence of the extinction transients on such critical parameters.

Population Genomics and the Statistical Values of Race: An Interdisciplinary Perspective on the Biological Classification of Human Populations and Implications for Clinical Genetic Epidemiological Research

PubMed Central

Maglo, Koffi N.; Mersha, Tesfaye B.; Martin, Lisa J.

2016-01-01

The biological status and biomedical significance of the concept of race as applied to humans continue to be contentious issues despite the use of advanced statistical and clustering methods to determine continental ancestry. It is thus imperative for researchers to understand the limitations as well as potential uses of the concept of race in biology and biomedicine. This paper deals with the theoretical assumptions behind cluster analysis in human population genomics. Adopting an interdisciplinary approach, it demonstrates that the hypothesis that attributes the clustering of human populations to “frictional” effects of landform barriers at continental boundaries is empirically incoherent. It then contrasts the scientific status of the “cluster” and “cline” constructs in human population genomics, and shows how cluster may be instrumentally produced. It also shows how statistical values of race vindicate Darwin's argument that race is evolutionarily meaningless. Finally, the paper explains why, due to spatiotemporal parameters, evolutionary forces, and socio-cultural factors influencing population structure, continental ancestry may be pragmatically relevant to global and public health genomics. Overall, this work demonstrates that, from a biological systematic and evolutionary taxonomical perspective, human races/continental groups or clusters have no natural meaning or objective biological reality. In fact, the utility of racial categorizations in research and in clinics can be explained by spatiotemporal parameters, socio-cultural factors, and evolutionary forces affecting disease causation and treatment response. PMID:26925096

Limited Genetic Connectivity between Gorgonian Morphotypes along a Depth Gradient

PubMed Central

Gori, Andrea; Lopez-González, Pablo; Bramanti, Lorenzo; Rossi, Sergio; Gili, Josep-Maria; Abbiati, Marco

2016-01-01

Gorgonian species show a high morphological variability in relation to the environment in which they live. In coastal areas, parameters such as temperature, light, currents, and food availability vary significantly with depth, potentially affecting morphology of the colonies and the structure of the populations, as well as their connectivity patterns. In tropical seas, the existence of connectivity between shallow and deep populations supported the hypothesis that the deep coral reefs could potentially act as (reproductive) refugia fostering re-colonization of shallow areas after mortality events. Moreover, this hypothesis is not so clear accepted in temperate seas. Eunicella singularis is one of the most common gorgonian species in Northwestern Mediterranean Sea, playing an important role as ecosystem engineer by providing biomass and complexity to the coralligenous habitats. It has a wide bathymetric distribution ranging from about 10 m to 100 m. Two depth-related morphotypes have been identified, differing in colony morphology, sclerite size and shape, and occurrence of symbiotic algae, but not in mitochondrial DNA haplotypes. In the present study the genetic structure of E. singularis populations along a horizontal and bathymetric gradient was assessed using microsatellites and ITS1 sequences. Restricted gene flow was found at 30–40 m depth between the two Eunicella morphotypes. Conversely, no genetic structuring has been found among shallow water populations within a spatial scale of ten kilometers. The break in gene flow between shallow and deep populations contributes to explain the morphological variability observed at different depths. Moreover, the limited vertical connectivity hinted that the refugia hypothesis does not apply to E. singularis. Re-colonization of shallow water populations, occasionally affected by mass mortality events, should then be mainly fueled by larvae from other shallow water populations. PMID:27490900

A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought.

PubMed

Jones, Marjorie T; Milligan, William R; Kats, Lee B; Vandergon, Thomas L; Honeycutt, Rodney L; Fisher, Robert N; Davis, Courtney L; Lucas, Timothy A

2017-02-07

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A discrete stage-structured model of California newt population dynamics during a period of drought

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Marjorie T.; Milligan, William R.; Kats, Lee B.; Vandergon, Thomas L.; Honeycutt, Rodney L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Davis, Courtney L.; Lucas, Timothy A.

2017-01-01

We introduce a mathematical model for studying the population dynamics under drought of the California newt (Taricha torosa), a species of special concern in the state of California. Since 2012, California has experienced a record-setting drought, and multiple studies predict drought conditions currently underway will persist and even increase in severity. Recent declines and local extinctions of California newt populations in Santa Monica Mountain streams motivate our study of the impact of drought on newt population sizes. Although newts are terrestrial salamanders, they migrate to streams each spring to breed and lay eggs. Since egg and larval stages occur in water, a precipitation deficit due to drought conditions reduces the space for newt egg-laying and the necessary habitat for larval development. To mathematically forecast newt population dynamics, we develop a nonlinear system of discrete equations that includes demographic parameters such as survival rates for newt life stages and egg production, which depend on habitat availability and rainfall. We estimate these demographic parameters using 15 years of stream survey data collected from Cold Creek in Los Angeles County, California, and our model captures the observed decline of the parameterized Cold Creek newt population. Based upon data analysis, we predict how the number of available newt egg-laying sites varies with annual precipitation. Our model allows us to make predictions about how the length and severity of drought can affect the likelihood of persistence and the time to critical endangerment of a local newt population. We predict that sustained severe drought will critically endanger the newt population but that the newt population can rebound if a drought is sufficiently short.

Clusters of poverty and disease emerge from feedbacks on an epidemiological network.

PubMed

Pluciński, Mateusz M; Ngonghala, Calistus N; Getz, Wayne M; Bonds, Matthew H

2013-03-06

The distribution of health conditions is characterized by extreme inequality. These disparities have been alternately attributed to disease ecology and the economics of poverty. Here, we provide a novel framework that integrates epidemiological and economic growth theory on an individual-based hierarchically structured network. Our model indicates that, under certain parameter regimes, feedbacks between disease ecology and economics create clusters of low income and high disease that can stably persist in populations that become otherwise predominantly rich and free of disease. Surprisingly, unlike traditional poverty trap models, these localized disease-driven poverty traps can arise despite homogeneity of parameters and evenly distributed initial economic conditions.

Integrated planning for regional development planning and water resources management under uncertainty: A case study of Xining, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Z. H.; Zhao, H. J.; Wang, H.; Lu, W. T.; Wang, J.; Guo, H. C.

2017-11-01

Economic restructuring, water resources management, population planning and environmental protection are subjects to inner uncertainties of a compound system with objectives which are competitive alternatives. Optimization model and water quality model are usually used to solve problems in a certain aspect. To overcome the uncertainty and coupling in reginal planning management, an interval fuzzy program combined with water quality model for regional planning and management has been developed to obtain the absolutely ;optimal; solution in this study. The model is a hybrid methodology of interval parameter programming (IPP), fuzzy programing (FP), and a general one-dimensional water quality model. The method extends on the traditional interval parameter fuzzy programming method by integrating water quality model into the optimization framework. Meanwhile, as an abstract concept, water resources carrying capacity has been transformed into specific and calculable index. Besides, unlike many of the past studies about water resource management, population as a significant factor has been considered. The results suggested that the methodology was applicable for reflecting the complexities of the regional planning and management systems within the planning period. The government policy makers could establish effective industrial structure, water resources utilization patterns and population planning, and to better understand the tradeoffs among economic, water resources, population and environmental objectives.

Detecting recent changes in the demographic parameters of drosophilid populations from western and central Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouiges, Axelle; Yassin, Amir; Ikogou, Maya; Lelarge, Clément; Sikoa, Axelle-Rolande; Mona, Stefano; Veuille, Michel

2013-07-01

Previous genetic studies showing evidence of past demographic changes in African drosophilids suggested that these populations had strongly responded to Quaternary climate changes. We surveyed nine species of Zaprionus, a drosophilid genus mostly present in Africa, in forests located between southern Senegal and Gabon. The mitochondrial COI gene showed contrasted levels of sequence variation across species. Populations of the only cosmopolitan species of the genus, Z. indianus, and of its closely related sibling species, Z. africanus, are highly polymorphic and appear to have undergone a continuous population expansion beginning about 130,000 years ago. Five less variable species probably underwent a population expansion beginning only about 20,000-30,000 years ago. One of them, Z. taronus, was significantly structured between forest blocks. The last two species were nearly monomorphic, probably due to infection by Wolbachia. These results are similar to those obtained in three species from the melanogaster subgroup, and may be typical of the responses of African drosophilid populations to glacial cycles.

Modelling biological invasions: species traits, species interactions, and habitat heterogeneity.

PubMed

Cannas, Sergio A; Marco, Diana E; Páez, Sergio A

2003-05-01

In this paper we explore the integration of different factors to understand, predict and control ecological invasions, through a general cellular automaton model especially developed. The model includes life history traits of several species in a modular structure interacting multiple cellular automata. We performed simulations using field values corresponding to the exotic Gleditsia triacanthos and native co-dominant trees in a montane area. Presence of G. triacanthos juvenile bank was a determinant condition for invasion success. Main parameters influencing invasion velocity were mean seed dispersal distance and minimum reproductive age. Seed production had a small influence on the invasion velocity. Velocities predicted by the model agreed well with estimations from field data. Values of population density predicted matched field values closely. The modular structure of the model, the explicit interaction between the invader and the native species, and the simplicity of parameters and transition rules are novel features of the model.

A High-Performance Cellular Automaton Model of Tumor Growth with Dynamically Growing Domains

PubMed Central

Poleszczuk, Jan; Enderling, Heiko

2014-01-01

Tumor growth from a single transformed cancer cell up to a clinically apparent mass spans many spatial and temporal orders of magnitude. Implementation of cellular automata simulations of such tumor growth can be straightforward but computing performance often counterbalances simplicity. Computationally convenient simulation times can be achieved by choosing appropriate data structures, memory and cell handling as well as domain setup. We propose a cellular automaton model of tumor growth with a domain that expands dynamically as the tumor population increases. We discuss memory access, data structures and implementation techniques that yield high-performance multi-scale Monte Carlo simulations of tumor growth. We discuss tumor properties that favor the proposed high-performance design and present simulation results of the tumor growth model. We estimate to which parameters the model is the most sensitive, and show that tumor volume depends on a number of parameters in a non-monotonic manner. PMID:25346862

Life histories predict genetic diversity and population structure within three species of octopus targeted by small-scale fisheries in Northwest Mexico

PubMed Central

Ceballos-Vázquez, Bertha P.; Arellano-Martínez, Marcial; García-Rodríguez, Francisco J.; Culver, Melanie; Reyes-Bonilla, Hector

2018-01-01

The fishery for octopus in Northwest Mexico has increased to over 2,000 tons annually, but to date the specific composition of the catch has been ignored. With at least three main species targeted by artisanal fisheries in the region with distinct life histories, the lack of basic biological information about the distribution, metapopulation size and structure of each species could impede effective fisheries management to avoid overexploitation. We tested if different life histories of three species of octopus could help predict observed patterns of genetic diversity, population dynamics, structure and connectivity and how this information could be relevant to the sustainable management of the fishery. We sequenced two mitochondrial genes and genotyped seven nuclear microsatellite loci to identify the distribution of each species in 20 locations from the Gulf of California and the west coast of the Baja California peninsula. We tested five hypotheses derived from population genetic theory based on differences in the fecundity and dispersal potential for each species. We discovered that Octopus bimaculoides with low fecundity and direct development (without a planktonic phase) had lower average effective population size and genetic diversity, but higher levels of kinship, population structure, and richness of private alleles, than the other two species. These features indicated limited dispersal and high local recruitment. In contrast, O. bimaculatus and O. hubbsorum with higher fecundity and planktonic phase as paralarvae had higher effective population size and genetic diversity, and overall lower kinship and population structure than O. bimaculoides. These observations supported higher levels of gene flow over a larger geographical scale. O. bimaculatus with the longest planktonic paralarval duration and therefore larger dispersal potential had differences in the calculated parameters possibly associated with increased connectivity. We propose O. bimaculoides is more susceptible to over exploitation of small, isolated populations and could have longer recovery times than the other two species. This species may benefit from distinct fishery management within each local population. O. bimaculatus and O. hubbsorum may benefit from fishery management that takes into account metapopulation structure over larger geographic scales and the directionality and magnitude of larval dispersal driven by ocean currents and population connectivity among individuals of each locality. The distribution of each species and variations in their reproductive phenology is also important to consider when establishing marine reserves or seasonal fishing closures. PMID:29472993

[Genetic demographic study of Shors in Tashtagolskiĭ district of the Kemerovo region: changes in the marriage migration structure].

PubMed

Ul'ianova, M V; Kucher, A N; Lavriashina, M B

2011-01-01

The changes in the marriage structure with respect to the age at marriage, ethnicity, and spouses' birthplaces during the period of time corresponding to two generations have been analyzed in the rural population of Shors of Tashtagolskii raion of Kemerovo oblast. In general, the Shor population had a high assortative marriage rate with respect to these parameters in the period studied, although there was a temporary tendency towards its decrease. The ages of marriage for both the male and the female Shor populations in the years 2000-2005 were significantly older than in 1940-1945 and 1970-1975. The age-assortative marriage rate was r = = 0.60 in 1940-1945, r = 0.73 in 1970-1975, and r = 0.66 in 2000-2005. The birthplace-assortative marriage rate decreased from 79.63% in 1970-1975 to 70.64% in 2000-2005. The ethnic assortative marriage rate of Shors steadily decreased during the time interval studied; it was 96.92, 89.95, and 80.98% in 1940-1945, 1970-1975, and 2000-2005, respectively, for the total rural population of Tashtagolskii raion.

Investigation of Structure in the Light Curves of a Sample of Newly Discovered Long Period Variable Stars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Craine, E. R.; Culver, R. B.; Eykholt, R.; Flurchick, K. M.; Kraus, A. L.; Tucker, R. A.; Walker, D. K.

2015-09-01

Long period variable stars exhibit hump structures, and possibly flares, in their light curves. While the existence of humps is not controversial, the presence of flaring activity is less clear. Mining of a sky survey database of new variable star discoveries (the first MOTESS-GNAT Variable Star Catalog (MG1-VSC)) has led to identification of 47 such stars for which there are sufficient data to explore the presence of anomalous light curve features. We find a number of hump structures, and see one possible flare, suggesting that they are rare events. We present light curves and measured parameters for these stars, and a population statistical analysis.

Effect of environmental parameters on habitat structural weight and cost

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bock, E.; Lambrou, F., Jr.; Simon, M.

1979-01-01

Space-settlement conceptual designs were previously accomplished using earth-normal physiological conditions. The habitat weight and cost penalties associated with this conservative design approach are quantified. These penalties are identified by comparison of conservative earth-normal designs with habitats designed to less than earth-normal conditions. Physiological research areas are also recommended as a necessary prerequisite to realizing these potential weight and cost savings. Major habitat structural elements, that is, pressure shell and radiation shielding, for populations of 100, 10,000, and 1,000,000, are evaluated for effects of atmospheric pressure, pseudogravity level, radiation shielding thickness, and habitat configuration.

Performance review using sequential sampling and a practice computer.

PubMed

Difford, F

1988-06-01

The use of sequential sample analysis for repeated performance review is described with examples from several areas of practice. The value of a practice computer in providing a random sample from a complete population, evaluating the parameters of a sequential procedure, and producing a structured worksheet is discussed. It is suggested that sequential analysis has advantages over conventional sampling in the area of performance review in general practice.

An integrated chromosome map of microsatellite markers and inversion breakpoints for an Asian malaria mosquito, Anopheles stephensi.

PubMed

Kamali, Maryam; Sharakhova, Maria V; Baricheva, Elina; Karagodin, Dmitrii; Tu, Zhijian; Sharakhov, Igor V

2011-01-01

Anopheles stephensi is one of the major vectors of malaria in the Middle East and Indo-Pakistan subcontinent. Understanding the population genetic structure of malaria mosquitoes is important for developing adequate and successful vector control strategies. Commonly used markers for inferring anopheline taxonomic and population status include microsatellites and chromosomal inversions. Knowledge about chromosomal locations of microsatellite markers with respect to polymorphic inversions could be useful for better understanding a genetic structure of natural populations. However, fragments with microsatellites used in population genetic studies are usually too short for successful labeling and hybridization with chromosomes. We designed new primers for amplification of microsatellite loci identified in the A. stephensi genome sequenced with next-generation technologies. Twelve microsatellites were mapped to polytene chromosomes from ovarian nurse cells of A. stephensi using fluorescent in situ hybridization. All microsatellites hybridized to unique locations on autosomes, and 7 of them localized to the largest arm 2R. Ten microsatellites were mapped inside the previously described polymorphic chromosomal inversions, including 4 loci located inside the widespread inversion 2Rb. We analyzed microsatellite-based population genetic data available for A. stephensi in light of our mapping results. This study demonstrates that the chromosomal position of microsatellites may affect estimates of population genetic parameters and highlights the importance of developing physical maps for nonmodel organisms.

Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects

PubMed Central

Baumann, Hendrik; Sandmann, Werner

2016-01-01

Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity. PMID:27010993

Structured Modeling and Analysis of Stochastic Epidemics with Immigration and Demographic Effects.

PubMed

Baumann, Hendrik; Sandmann, Werner

2016-01-01

Stochastic epidemics with open populations of variable population sizes are considered where due to immigration and demographic effects the epidemic does not eventually die out forever. The underlying stochastic processes are ergodic multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chains that possess unique equilibrium probability distributions. Modeling these epidemics as level-dependent quasi-birth-and-death processes enables efficient computations of the equilibrium distributions by matrix-analytic methods. Numerical examples for specific parameter sets are provided, which demonstrates that this approach is particularly well-suited for studying the impact of varying rates for immigration, births, deaths, infection, recovery from infection, and loss of immunity.

Controlled recovery of phylogenetic communities from an evolutionary model using a network approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sousa, Arthur M. Y. R.; Vieira, André P.; Prado, Carmen P. C.; Andrade, Roberto F. S.

2016-04-01

This works reports the use of a complex network approach to produce a phylogenetic classification tree of a simple evolutionary model. This approach has already been used to treat proteomic data of actual extant organisms, but an investigation of its reliability to retrieve a traceable evolutionary history is missing. The used evolutionary model includes key ingredients for the emergence of groups of related organisms by differentiation through random mutations and population growth, but purposefully omits other realistic ingredients that are not strictly necessary to originate an evolutionary history. This choice causes the model to depend only on a small set of parameters, controlling the mutation probability and the population of different species. Our results indicate that for a set of parameter values, the phylogenetic classification produced by the used framework reproduces the actual evolutionary history with a very high average degree of accuracy. This includes parameter values where the species originated by the evolutionary dynamics have modular structures. In the more general context of community identification in complex networks, our model offers a simple setting for evaluating the effects, on the efficiency of community formation and identification, of the underlying dynamics generating the network itself.

WebStruct and VisualStruct: Web interfaces and visualization for Structure software implemented in a cluster environment.

PubMed

Jayashree, B; Rajgopal, S; Hoisington, D; Prasanth, V P; Chandra, S

2008-09-24

Structure, is a widely used software tool to investigate population genetic structure with multi-locus genotyping data. The software uses an iterative algorithm to group individuals into "K" clusters, representing possibly K genetically distinct subpopulations. The serial implementation of this programme is processor-intensive even with small datasets. We describe an implementation of the program within a parallel framework. Speedup was achieved by running different replicates and values of K on each node of the cluster. A web-based user-oriented GUI has been implemented in PHP, through which the user can specify input parameters for the programme. The number of processors to be used can be specified in the background command. A web-based visualization tool "Visualstruct", written in PHP (HTML and Java script embedded), allows for the graphical display of population clusters output from Structure, where each individual may be visualized as a line segment with K colors defining its possible genomic composition with respect to the K genetic sub-populations. The advantage over available programs is in the increased number of individuals that can be visualized. The analyses of real datasets indicate a speedup of up to four, when comparing the speed of execution on clusters of eight processors with the speed of execution on one desktop. The software package is freely available to interested users upon request.

[Community structure and seasonal change of soil micro-arthropodes in the Lower Reaches of Liaohe River Plain under different land utilization].

PubMed

Ke, Xin; Liang, Wenju; Yu, Wantai; Xie, Rongdong; Weng, Chaolian; Yang, Yiming; Yin, Wenying

2004-04-01

The data on the soil micro-arthropodes under four land utilization types (fallow, forest, upland field and paddy) in the Lower Reaches of Liaohe River Plain were collected in a period from October 2000 to October 2001. Using the community parameters of population density, group richness, diversity index and evenness, the community structure and its seasonal changes were described. There were 12 groups of soil micro-arthropodes in this region, and of the groups, Collembola and Acarina were dominant, and Diptera, Coleoptera and Hymenoptera were often seen in fallow, forest and upland field, while Collembola, Acarina and Diptera were dominant in paddy. Both land utilization and seasonal change influenced the population density, group richness and diversity index of soil micro-arthropodes. The vertical distribution in both density and group number of arthropods in soil was in the order of surface > middle > bottom.

Evolutionary fate of memory-one strategies in repeated prisoner's dilemma game in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xu-Sheng; Wu, Zhi-Xi; Chen, Michael Z. Q.; Guan, Jian-Yue

2017-07-01

We study evolutionary spatial prisoner's dilemma game involving a one-step memory mechanism of the individuals whenever making strategy updating. In particular, during the process of strategy updating, each individual keeps in mind all the outcome of the action pairs adopted by himself and each of his neighbors in the last interaction, and according to which the individuals decide what actions they will take in the next round. Computer simulation results imply that win-stay-lose-shift like strategy win out of the memory-one strategy set in the stationary state. This result is robust in a large range of the payoff parameter, and does not depend on the initial state of the system. Furthermore, theoretical analysis with mean field and quasi-static approximation predict the same result. Thus, our studies suggest that win-stay-lose-shift like strategy is a stable dominant strategy in repeated prisoner's dilemma game in homogeneous structured populations.

Self-organization in Balanced State Networks by STDP and Homeostatic Plasticity

PubMed Central

Effenberger, Felix; Jost, Jürgen; Levina, Anna

2015-01-01

Structural inhomogeneities in synaptic efficacies have a strong impact on population response dynamics of cortical networks and are believed to play an important role in their functioning. However, little is known about how such inhomogeneities could evolve by means of synaptic plasticity. Here we present an adaptive model of a balanced neuronal network that combines two different types of plasticity, STDP and synaptic scaling. The plasticity rules yield both long-tailed distributions of synaptic weights and firing rates. Simultaneously, a highly connected subnetwork of driver neurons with strong synapses emerges. Coincident spiking activity of several driver cells can evoke population bursts and driver cells have similar dynamical properties as leader neurons found experimentally. Our model allows us to observe the delicate interplay between structural and dynamical properties of the emergent inhomogeneities. It is simple, robust to parameter changes and able to explain a multitude of different experimental findings in one basic network. PMID:26335425

The organization and control of an evolving interdependent population

PubMed Central

Vural, Dervis C.; Isakov, Alexander; Mahadevan, L.

2015-01-01

Starting with Darwin, biologists have asked how populations evolve from a low fitness state that is evolutionarily stable to a high fitness state that is not. Specifically of interest is the emergence of cooperation and multicellularity where the fitness of individuals often appears in conflict with that of the population. Theories of social evolution and evolutionary game theory have produced a number of fruitful results employing two-state two-body frameworks. In this study, we depart from this tradition and instead consider a multi-player, multi-state evolutionary game, in which the fitness of an agent is determined by its relationship to an arbitrary number of other agents. We show that populations organize themselves in one of four distinct phases of interdependence depending on one parameter, selection strength. Some of these phases involve the formation of specialized large-scale structures. We then describe how the evolution of independence can be manipulated through various external perturbations. PMID:26040593

How congestion shapes cities: from mobility patterns to scaling

PubMed Central

Louf, Rémi; Barthelemy, Marc

2014-01-01

The recent availability of data for cities has allowed scientists to exhibit scalings which present themselves in the form of a power-law dependence on population of various socio-economical and structural indicators. We propose here a stochastic theory of urban growth which accounts for some of the observed scalings and we confirm these predictions on US and OECD empirical data. In particular, we show that the dependence on population size of the total number of miles driven daily, the total length of the road network, the total traffic delay, the total consumption of gasoline, the quantity of CO2 emitted and the relation between area and population of cities, are all governed by a single parameter which characterizes the sensitivity to congestion. Our results suggest that diseconomies associated with congestion scale superlinearly with population size, implying that –despite polycentrism– cities whose transportation infrastructure rely heavily on traffic sensitive modes are unsustainable. PMID:24990624

Chapter 8: Demographic characteristics and population modeling

Treesearch

Scott H. Stoleson; Mary J. Whitfield; Mark K. Sogge

2000-01-01

An understanding of the basic demography of a species is necessary to estimate and evaluate population trends. The relative impact of different demographic parameters on growth rates can be assessed through a sensitivity analysis, in which different parameters are altered singly to assess the effect on population growth. Identification of critical parameters can allow...

Morphometry and subpopulation structure of Holstein bull spermatozoa: variations in ejaculates and cryopreservation straws

PubMed Central

Valverde, Anthony; Arenán, Héctor; Sancho, María; Contell, Jesús; Yániz, Jesús; Fernández, Alejandro; Soler, Carles

2016-01-01

Sperm quality is evaluated for the calculation of sperm dosage in artificial reproductive programs. The most common parameter used is motility, but morphology has a higher potential as a predictor of genetic quality. Morphometry calculations from CASA-Morph technology improve morphological evaluation and allow mathematical approaches to the problem. Semen from 28 Holstein bulls was collected by artificial vagina, and several ejaculates were studied. After general evaluation, samples were diluted, packaged in 0.25 ml straws, and stored in liquid nitrogen. Two straws per sample were thawed, and slides were processed and stained with Diff-Quik. Samples were analyzed by a CASA-Morph system for eight morphometric parameters. In addition to the “classical” statistical approach, based on variance analysis (revealing differences between animals, ejaculates, and straws), principal component (PC) analysis showed that the variables were grouped into PC1, related to size, and PC2 to shape. Subpopulation structure analysis showed four groups, namely, big, small, short, and narrow from their dominant characteristics, representing 31.0%, 27.3%, 24.1%, and 17.7% of the total population, respectively. The distributions varied between animals and ejaculates, but between straws, there were no differences in only four animals. This modern approach of considering an ejaculate sperm population as divided into subpopulations reflecting quantifiable parameters generated by CASA-Morph systems technology opens a new view on sperm function. This is the first study applying this approach to evaluate different ejaculates and straws from the same individual. More work must be done to improve seminal dose calculations in assisted reproductive programs. PMID:27678464

Morphometry and subpopulation structure of Holstein bull spermatozoa: variations in ejaculates and cryopreservation straws.

PubMed

Valverde, Anthony; Arenán, Héctor; Sancho, María; Contell, Jesús; Yániz, Jesús; Fernández, Alejandro; Soler, Carles

2016-01-01

Sperm quality is evaluated for the calculation of sperm dosage in artificial reproductive programs. The most common parameter used is motility, but morphology has a higher potential as a predictor of genetic quality. Morphometry calculations from CASA-Morph technology improve morphological evaluation and allow mathematical approaches to the problem. Semen from 28 Holstein bulls was collected by artificial vagina, and several ejaculates were studied. After general evaluation, samples were diluted, packaged in 0.25 ml straws, and stored in liquid nitrogen. Two straws per sample were thawed, and slides were processed and stained with Diff-Quik. Samples were analyzed by a CASA-Morph system for eight morphometric parameters. In addition to the "classical" statistical approach, based on variance analysis (revealing differences between animals, ejaculates, and straws), principal component (PC) analysis showed that the variables were grouped into PC1, related to size, and PC2 to shape. Subpopulation structure analysis showed four groups, namely, big, small, short, and narrow from their dominant characteristics, representing 31.0%, 27.3%, 24.1%, and 17.7% of the total population, respectively. The distributions varied between animals and ejaculates, but between straws, there were no differences in only four animals. This modern approach of considering an ejaculate sperm population as divided into subpopulations reflecting quantifiable parameters generated by CASA-Morph systems technology opens a new view on sperm function. This is the first study applying this approach to evaluate different ejaculates and straws from the same individual. More work must be done to improve seminal dose calculations in assisted reproductive programs.

The lawyer, legal education and population policies in Africa.

PubMed

Uche, U U

1976-09-01

This paper analyses the relationship of the lawyer and legal education to policies of population dynamics in Africa. Lawyers have been reluctant to enter effectively into population studies and consequently are peripheral in influencing the formulation and implementation of population policies in Africa. This "unfortunate" situation reflects the varying attitudes of the lawyer to some aspects of population dynamics. The concept of Human Rights is examined as offering a suitable avenue for increased participation of lawyers into the formulation of population policies. The paper examines the structure of laws affecting parameters of population dynamics in Kenya and the extent to which Kenya's legal structure, as in some other African countries, is pegged to the legal system of their colonial governments. This factor, reinforced by traditional practices and socioeconomic factors, frustrate lawyers' attitudes. These attitudes can be changed by making population law an integral part of legal educational curricula. Breakdowns are given of lawyer's attitudes to fertility and abortion under specified conditions and descriptions of various case studies in Kenya, Sweden, Prague, Czechoslovakia, and England involving abortion laws. Contraception laws in Africa and health codes are detailed in order to trace how people's attitudes tend to frustrate the law, especially concerning veneral diseases. Laws concerning drugs, and especially spatial distribution (urban and rural migration) are described to show how lawyers can become involved in population law. The author's recommended law curriculum is given which emphasizes introductory preparation in the sociological, economic, demographic, health and sex education dimensions of the subject of population law in addition to study of all statutory provisions, orders, regulations, by laws and judicial decisions that have any bearing on population matters. Categories to be studied should include fertility regulation, family law, children and child welfare, criminal offence and penology, public welfare, public health, education, property and economic factors.

Positive correlation between genetic diversity and fitness in a large, well-connected metapopulation.

PubMed

Vandewoestijne, Sofie; Schtickzelle, Nicolas; Baguette, Michel

2008-11-05

Theory predicts that lower dispersal, and associated gene flow, leads to decreased genetic diversity in small isolated populations, which generates adverse consequences for fitness, and subsequently for demography. Here we report for the first time this effect in a well-connected natural butterfly metapopulation with high population densities at the edge of its distribution range. We demonstrate that: (1) lower genetic diversity was coupled to a sharp decrease in adult lifetime expectancy, a key component of individual fitness; (2) genetic diversity was positively correlated to the number of dispersing individuals (indicative of landscape functional connectivity) and adult population size; (3) parameters inferred from capture-recapture procedures (population size and dispersal events between patches) correlated much better with genetic diversity than estimates usually used as surrogates for population size (patch area and descriptors of habitat quality) and dispersal (structural connectivity index). Our results suggest that dispersal is a very important factor maintaining genetic diversity. Even at a very local spatial scale in a metapopulation consisting of large high-density populations interconnected by considerable dispersal rates, genetic diversity can be decreased and directly affect the fitness of individuals. From a biodiversity conservation perspective, this study clearly shows the benefits of both in-depth demographic and genetic analyses. Accordingly, to ensure the long-term survival of populations, conservation actions should not be blindly based on patch area and structural isolation. This result may be especially pertinent for species at their range margins, particularly in this era of rapid environmental change.

Similar evolutionary potentials in an obligate ant parasite and its two host species

PubMed Central

Pennings, P S; Achenbach, A; Foitzik, S

2011-01-01

The spatial structure of host–parasite coevolution is shaped by population structure and genetic diversity of the interacting species. We analysed these population genetic parameters in three related ant species: the parasitic slavemaking ant Protomognathus americanus and its two host species Temnothorax longispinosus and T. curvispinosus. We sampled throughout their range, genotyped ants on six to eight microsatellite loci and an MtDNA sequence and found high levels of genetic variation and strong population structure in all three species. Interestingly, the most abundant species and primary host, T. longispinosus, is characterized by less structure, but lower local genetic diversity. Generally, differences between the species were small, and we conclude that they have similar evolutionary potentials. The coevolutionary interaction between this social parasite and its hosts may therefore be less influenced by divergent evolutionary potentials, but rather by varying selection pressures. We employed different methods to quantify and compare genetic diversity and structure between species and genetic markers. We found that Jost D is well suited for these comparisons, as long as mutation rates between markers and species are similar. If this is not the case, for example, when using MtDNA and microsatellites to study sex-specific dispersal, model-based inference should be used instead of descriptive statistics (such as D or GST). Using coalescent-based methods, we indeed found that males disperse much more than females, but this sex bias in dispersal differed between species. The findings of the different approaches with regard to genetic diversity and structure were in good accordance with each other. PMID:21324025

Time-varying parameter models for catchments with land use change: the importance of model structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pathiraja, Sahani; Anghileri, Daniela; Burlando, Paolo; Sharma, Ashish; Marshall, Lucy; Moradkhani, Hamid

2018-05-01

Rapid population and economic growth in Southeast Asia has been accompanied by extensive land use change with consequent impacts on catchment hydrology. Modeling methodologies capable of handling changing land use conditions are therefore becoming ever more important and are receiving increasing attention from hydrologists. A recently developed data-assimilation-based framework that allows model parameters to vary through time in response to signals of change in observations is considered for a medium-sized catchment (2880 km2) in northern Vietnam experiencing substantial but gradual land cover change. We investigate the efficacy of the method as well as the importance of the chosen model structure in ensuring the success of a time-varying parameter method. The method was used with two lumped daily conceptual models (HBV and HyMOD) that gave good-quality streamflow predictions during pre-change conditions. Although both time-varying parameter models gave improved streamflow predictions under changed conditions compared to the time-invariant parameter model, persistent biases for low flows were apparent in the HyMOD case. It was found that HyMOD was not suited to representing the modified baseflow conditions, resulting in extreme and unrealistic time-varying parameter estimates. This work shows that the chosen model can be critical for ensuring the time-varying parameter framework successfully models streamflow under changing land cover conditions. It can also be used to determine whether land cover changes (and not just meteorological factors) contribute to the observed hydrologic changes in retrospective studies where the lack of a paired control catchment precludes such an assessment.

Recalibrating disease parameters for increasing realism in modeling epidemics in closed settings.

PubMed

Bioglio, Livio; Génois, Mathieu; Vestergaard, Christian L; Poletto, Chiara; Barrat, Alain; Colizza, Vittoria

2016-11-14

The homogeneous mixing assumption is widely adopted in epidemic modelling for its parsimony and represents the building block of more complex approaches, including very detailed agent-based models. The latter assume homogeneous mixing within schools, workplaces and households, mostly for the lack of detailed information on human contact behaviour within these settings. The recent data availability on high-resolution face-to-face interactions makes it now possible to assess the goodness of this simplified scheme in reproducing relevant aspects of the infection dynamics. We consider empirical contact networks gathered in different contexts, as well as synthetic data obtained through realistic models of contacts in structured populations. We perform stochastic spreading simulations on these contact networks and in populations of the same size under a homogeneous mixing hypothesis. We adjust the epidemiological parameters of the latter in order to fit the prevalence curve of the contact epidemic model. We quantify the agreement by comparing epidemic peak times, peak values, and epidemic sizes. Good approximations of the peak times and peak values are obtained with the homogeneous mixing approach, with a median relative difference smaller than 20 % in all cases investigated. Accuracy in reproducing the peak time depends on the setting under study, while for the peak value it is independent of the setting. Recalibration is found to be linear in the epidemic parameters used in the contact data simulations, showing changes across empirical settings but robustness across groups and population sizes. An adequate rescaling of the epidemiological parameters can yield a good agreement between the epidemic curves obtained with a real contact network and a homogeneous mixing approach in a population of the same size. The use of such recalibrated homogeneous mixing approximations would enhance the accuracy and realism of agent-based simulations and limit the intrinsic biases of the homogeneous mixing.

Evolutionary games with self-questioning adaptive mechanism and the Ising model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, J.; Xu, C.; Hui, P. M.

2017-09-01

A class of evolutionary games using a self-questioning strategy switching mechanism played in a population of connected agents is shown to behave as an Ising model Hamiltonian of spins connected in the same way. The payoff parameters combine to give the coupling between spins and an external magnetic field. The mapping covers the prisoner's dilemma, snowdrift and stag hunt games in structured populations. A well-mixed system is used to illustrate the equivalence. In a chain of agents/spins, the mapping to Ising model leads to an exact solution to the games effortlessly. The accuracy of standard approximations on the games can then be quantified. The site approximation is found to show varied accuracies depending on the payoff parameters, and the link approximation is shown to give the exact result in a chain but not in a closed form. The mapping established here connects two research areas, with each having much to offer to the other.

Direct reciprocity in spatial populations enhances R-reciprocity as well as ST-reciprocity.

PubMed

Miyaji, Kohei; Tanimoto, Jun; Wang, Zhen; Hagishima, Aya; Ikegaya, Naoki

2013-01-01

As is well-known, spatial reciprocity plays an important role in facilitating the emergence of cooperative traits, and the effect of direct reciprocity is also obvious for explaining the cooperation dynamics. However, how the combination of these two scenarios influences cooperation is still unclear. In the present work, we study the evolution of cooperation in 2 × 2 games via considering both spatial structured populations and direct reciprocity driven by the strategy with 1-memory length. Our results show that cooperation can be significantly facilitated on the whole parameter plane. For prisoner's dilemma game, cooperation dominates the system even at strong dilemma, where maximal social payoff is still realized. In this sense, R-reciprocity forms and it is robust to the extremely strong dilemma. Interestingly, when turning to chicken game, we find that ST-reciprocity is also guaranteed, through which social average payoff and cooperation is greatly enhanced. This reciprocity mechanism is supported by mean-field analysis and different interaction topologies. Thus, our study indicates that direct reciprocity in structured populations can be regarded as a more powerful factor for the sustainability of cooperation.

Time-dependent effect of graphene on the structure, abundance, and function of the soil bacterial community.

PubMed

Ren, Wenjie; Ren, Gaidi; Teng, Ying; Li, Zhengao; Li, Lina

2015-10-30

The increased application of graphene raises concerns about its environmental impact, but little information is available on the effect of graphene on the soil microbial community. This study evaluated the impact of graphene on the structure, abundance and function of the soil bacterial community based on quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR), pyrosequencing and soil enzyme activities. The results show that the enzyme activities of dehydrogenase and fluorescein diacetate (FDA) esterase and the biomass of the bacterial populations were transiently promoted by the presence of graphene after 4 days of exposure, but these parameters recovered completely after 21 days. Pyrosequencing analysis suggested a significant shift in some bacterial populations after 4 days, and the shift became weaker or disappeared as the exposure time increased to 60 days. During the entire exposure process, the majority of bacterial phylotypes remained unaffected. Some bacterial populations involved in nitrogen biogeochemical cycles and the degradation of organic compounds can be affected by the presence of graphene. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Low-mass X-ray binaries from black hole retaining globular clusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giesler, Matthew; Clausen, Drew; Ott, Christian D.

2018-06-01

Recent studies suggest that globular clusters (GCs) may retain a substantial population of stellar-mass black holes (BHs), in contrast to the long-held belief of a few to zero BHs. We model the population of BH low-mass X-ray binaries (BH-LMXBs), an ideal observable proxy for elusive single BHs, produced from a representative group of Milky Way GCs with variable BH populations. We simulate the formation of BH binaries in GCs through exchange interactions between binary and single stars in the company of tens to hundreds of BHs. Additionally, we consider the impact of the BH population on the rate of compact binaries undergoing gravitational wave driven mergers. The characteristics of the BH-LMXB population and binary properties are sensitive to the GCs structural parameters as well as its unobservable BH population. We find that GCs retaining ˜1000 BHs produce a galactic population of ˜150 ejected BH-LMXBs, whereas GCs retaining only ˜20 BHs produce zero ejected BH-LMXBs. Moreover, we explore the possibility that some of the presently known BH-LMXBs might have originated in GCs and identify five candidate systems.

An audit of the statistics and the comparison with the parameter in the population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bujang, Mohamad Adam; Sa'at, Nadiah; Joys, A. Reena; Ali, Mariana Mohamad

2015-10-01

The sufficient sample size that is needed to closely estimate the statistics for particular parameters are use to be an issue. Although sample size might had been calculated referring to objective of the study, however, it is difficult to confirm whether the statistics are closed with the parameter for a particular population. All these while, guideline that uses a p-value less than 0.05 is widely used as inferential evidence. Therefore, this study had audited results that were analyzed from various sub sample and statistical analyses and had compared the results with the parameters in three different populations. Eight types of statistical analysis and eight sub samples for each statistical analysis were analyzed. Results found that the statistics were consistent and were closed to the parameters when the sample study covered at least 15% to 35% of population. Larger sample size is needed to estimate parameter that involve with categorical variables compared with numerical variables. Sample sizes with 300 to 500 are sufficient to estimate the parameters for medium size of population.

Reproductive habitat selection in alien and native populations of the genus Discoglossus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escoriza, Daniel; Boix, Dani

2014-08-01

The existence of suitable breeding habitats is an important factor explaining the regional presence of an anuran species. This study examined patterns of habitat selection in populations of three species of the genus Discoglossus: Discoglossusgalganoi (south-western Iberian Peninsula), Discoglossusscovazzi (Morocco) and Discoglossuspictus (three different areas were included in the study: Sicily, Tunisia and north-eastern Iberian Peninsula). The populations of D. pictus on the Iberian Peninsula are allochthonous, and analysis of these patterns may provide insights into the processes that regulate the invasion phase. The hypotheses tested were: (i) congeneric species show the same patterns of habitat selection, and alien species have been established following these patterns; (ii) there are differences in species associations between assemblages structured deterministically and by chance, i.e. native versus invaded assemblages. The larval habitats of three species of this genus were characterized by measuring physical and chemical parameters of the water bodies. We examined the covariation between the presence of Discoglossus species and the species richness of sympatric anurans, and investigated a possible relationship between morphological similarity (as a proxy of functional group) and overlap in habitat use. The results showed that congeneric species are morphologically conservative and also select very similar types of aquatic habitat. The alien population and other sympatric species showed a high degree of overlap in habitat use, which was greater than that observed in the native assemblage with a similar functional richness. Species associations were not structured on the basis of morphological similarity in any of the assemblages. Among native populations, the presence of Discoglossus was either negatively correlated or not significantly correlated with species richness. Only the alien population showed a positive correlation between its presence and species richness, which suggests a loss of assemblage structure.

Simulating the selfing and migration of Luehea divaricata populations in the Pampa biome to investigate the conservation potential of their genetic resources.

PubMed

Serrote, C M L; Reiniger, L R S; Stefenon, V M; Curti, A R; Costa, L S; Paim, A F

2016-08-29

Computer simulations are an important tool for developing conservation strategies for forest species. This study used simulations to investigate the genetic, ecological, and reproductive patterns that contribute to the genetic structure of the tree Luehea divaricata Mart. & Zucc. in five forest fragments in the Brazilian Pampa biome. Using the EASYPOP model, we determined the selfing and migration rates that would match the corresponding genetic structure of microsatellite marker data (based on observed and expected heterozygosity parameters). The simulated reproductive mode was mixed, with a high rate of outcrossing (rate = 0.7). This was consistent with a selfing-incompatible system in this species, which reduced, but did not prevent, selfing. The simulated migration rate was 0.02, which implied that the forest fragments were isolated by distance, and that the inbreeding coefficients were high. Based on Nei's gene diversity analysis, 94% of the genetic variability was distributed within the forest fragments, and only 6% of the genetic diversity was caused by differences between them. Furthermore, the minimum viable population and minimum viable area genetic conservation parameters (which determine conservation potential in the short and long term) suggested that only the Inhatinhum forest fragment had the short-term potential to maintain its genetic diversity. However, in the long term, none of the forest fragments proved to be sustainable, indicating that the populations will require intervention to prevent a decline in genetic variability. The creation of ecological corridors could be a useful solution to connect forest fragments and enhance gene flow between them.

Quantum clustering and network analysis of MD simulation trajectories to probe the conformational ensembles of protein-ligand interactions.

PubMed

Bhattacharyya, Moitrayee; Vishveshwara, Saraswathi

2011-07-01

In this article, we present a novel application of a quantum clustering (QC) technique to objectively cluster the conformations, sampled by molecular dynamics simulations performed on different ligand bound structures of the protein. We further portray each conformational population in terms of dynamically stable network parameters which beautifully capture the ligand induced variations in the ensemble in atomistic detail. The conformational populations thus identified by the QC method and verified by network parameters are evaluated for different ligand bound states of the protein pyrrolysyl-tRNA synthetase (DhPylRS) from D. hafniense. The ligand/environment induced re-distribution of protein conformational ensembles forms the basis for understanding several important biological phenomena such as allostery and enzyme catalysis. The atomistic level characterization of each population in the conformational ensemble in terms of the re-orchestrated networks of amino acids is a challenging problem, especially when the changes are minimal at the backbone level. Here we demonstrate that the QC method is sensitive to such subtle changes and is able to cluster MD snapshots which are similar at the side-chain interaction level. Although we have applied these methods on simulation trajectories of a modest time scale (20 ns each), we emphasize that our methodology provides a general approach towards an objective clustering of large-scale MD simulation data and may be applied to probe multistate equilibria at higher time scales, and to problems related to protein folding for any protein or protein-protein/RNA/DNA complex of interest with a known structure.

Environmental risk assessment of a genetically-engineered microorganism: Erwinia carotovora

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orvos, D.R.

1989-01-01

Environmental use of genetically-engineered microorganisms (GEMs) has raised concerns over potential ecological impact. Development of microcosm systems useful in preliminary testing for risk assessment will provide useful information for predicting potential structural, functional, and genetic effects of GEM release. This study was executed to develop techniques that may be useful in risk assessment and microbial ecology, to ascertain which parameters are useful in determining risk and to predict risk from releasing an engineered strain of Erwinia carotovora. A terrestrial microcosm system for use in GEM risk assessment studies was developed for use in assessing alterations of microbial structure and functionmore » that may be caused by introducing the engineered strain of E. carotovora. This strain is being developed for use as a biological control agent for plant soft rot. Parameters that were monitored included survival and intraspecific competition of E. carotovora, structural effects upon both total bacterial populations and numbers of selected bacterial genera, effects upon activities of dehydrogenase and alkaline phosphatase, effects upon soil nutrients, and potential for gene transfer into or out of the engineered strain.« less

A MegaCam Survey of Outer Halo Satellites. III. Photometric and Structural Parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz, Ricardo R.; Côté, Patrick; Santana, Felipe A.; Geha, Marla; Simon, Joshua D.; Oyarzún, Grecco A.; Stetson, Peter B.; Djorgovski, S. G.

2018-06-01

We present structural parameters from a wide-field homogeneous imaging survey of Milky Way satellites carried out with the MegaCam imagers on the 3.6 m Canada–France–Hawaii Telescope and 6.5 m Magellan-Clay telescope. Our survey targets an unbiased sample of “outer halo” satellites (i.e., substructures having galactocentric distances greater than 25 kpc) and includes classical dSph galaxies, ultra-faint dwarfs, and remote globular clusters. We combine deep, panoramic gr imaging for 44 satellites and archival gr imaging for 14 additional objects (primarily obtained with the DECam instrument as part of the Dark Energy Survey) to measure photometric and structural parameters for 58 outer halo satellites. This is the largest and most uniform analysis of Milky Way satellites undertaken to date and represents roughly three-quarters (58/81 ≃ 72%) of all known outer halo satellites. We use a maximum-likelihood method to fit four density laws to each object in our survey: exponential, Plummer, King, and Sérsic models. We systematically examine the isodensity contour maps and color–magnitude diagrams for each of our program objects, present a comparison with previous results, and tabulate our best-fit photometric and structural parameters, including ellipticities, position angles, effective radii, Sérsic indices, absolute magnitudes, and surface brightness measurements. We investigate the distribution of outer halo satellites in the size–magnitude diagram and show that the current sample of outer halo substructures spans a wide range in effective radius, luminosity, and surface brightness, with little evidence for a clean separation into star cluster and galaxy populations at the faintest luminosities and surface brightnesses.

Population structure of an endemic vulnerable species, the Jamaican boa (Epicrates subflavus).

PubMed

Tzika, Athanasia C; Koenig, Susan; Miller, Ricardo; Garcia, Gerardo; Remy, Christophe; Milinkovitch, Michel C

2008-01-01

The Jamaican boa (Epicrates subflavus; also called Yellow boa) is an endemic species whose natural populations greatly and constantly declined since the late 19th century, mainly because of predation by introduced species, human persecution, and habitat destruction. In-situ conservation of the Jamaican boa is seriously hindered by the lack of information on demographic and ecological parameters as well as by a poor understanding of the population structure and species distribution in the wild. Here, using nine nuclear microsatellite loci and a fragment of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene from 87 wild-born individuals, we present the first molecular genetic analyses focusing on the diversity and structure of the natural populations of the Jamaican boa. A model-based clustering analysis of multilocus microsatellite genotypes identifies three groups that are also significantly differentiated on the basis of F-statistics. Similarly, haplotypic network reconstruction methods applied on the cytochrome b haplotypes isolated here identify two well-differentiated haplogroups separated by four to six fixed mutations. Bayesian and metaGA analyses of the mitochondrial data set combined with sequences from other Boidae species indicate that rooting of the haplotypic network occurs most likely between the two defined haplogroups. Both analyses (based on nuclear and mitochondrial markers) underline an Eastern vs. (Western + Central) pattern of differentiation in agreement with geological data and patterns of differentiation uncovered in other vertebrate and invertebrate Jamaican species. Our results provide important insights for improving management of ex-situ captive populations and for guiding the development of proper in-situ species survival and habitat management plans for this spectacular, yet poorly known and vulnerable, snake.

Data-Limited Population-Status Evaluation of Two Coastal Fishes in Southern Angola Using Recreational Catch Length-Frequency Data.

PubMed

Beckensteiner, Jennifer; Kaplan, David M; Potts, Warren M; Santos, Carmen V; O'Farrell, Michael R

2016-01-01

Excessive truncation of a population's size structure is often identified as an important deleterious effect of exploitation, yet the effect on population persistence of size-structure truncation caused by exploitation is often not quantified due to data limitations. In this study, we estimate changes in eggs per recruit (EPR) using annual length-frequency samples over a 9 year period to assess persistence of the two most important recreational fishes in southern Angola: west coast dusky kob (Argyrosomus coronus) and leerfish (Lichia amia). Using a length- and age-structured model, we improve on an existing method to fit this type of model to length-frequency data and estimate EPR. The objectives of the methodological changes are to add flexibility and robustness to the approach for assessing population status in data-limited situations. Results indicate that dusky kob presents very low levels of EPR (5%-10% of the per recruit reproductive capacity in the absence of fishing) in 2013, whereas large inter-annual variability in leerfish estimates suggest caution must be applied when drawing conclusions about its exploitation status. Using simulated length frequency data with known parameter values, we demonstrate that recruitment decline due to overexploitation leads to overestimation of EPR values. Considering the low levels of EPR estimated for the study species, recruitment limitation is not impossible and true EPR values may be even lower than our estimates. It is, therefore, likely that management action, such as the creation of Marine Protected Areas, is needed to reconstitute the west coast dusky kob population.

Hydrology and trout populations of cold-water rivers of Michigan and Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hendrickson, G.E.; Knutilla, R.L.

1974-01-01

Statistical multiple-regression analyses showed significant relationships between trout populations and hydrologic parameters. Parameters showing the higher levels of significance were temperature, hardness of water, percentage of gravel bottom, percentage of bottom vegetation, variability of streamflow, and discharge per unit drainage area. Trout populations increase with lower levels of annual maximum water temperatures, with increase in water hardness, and with increase in percentage of gravel and bottom vegetation. Trout populations also increase with decrease in variability of streamflow, and with increase in discharge per unit drainage area. Most hydrologic parameters were significant when evaluated collectively, but no parameter, by itself, showed a high degree of correlation with trout populations in regression analyses that included all the streams sampled. Regression analyses of stream segments that were restricted to certain limits of hardness, temperature, or percentage of gravel bottom showed improvements in correlation. Analyses of trout populations, in pounds per acre and pounds per mile and hydrologic parameters resulted in regression equations from which trout populations could be estimated with standard errors of 89 and 84 per cent, respectively.

Morphological characteristics of the optic nerve evaluated by confocal laser tomography (HRT3) and laser polarimetry (GDx-VCC) in a normal population from the city of Barcelona.

PubMed

Fallon, M; Pazos, M; Morilla, A; Sebastián, M A; Xancó, R; Mora, C; Calderón, B; Vega, Z; Antón, A

2015-11-01

To evaluate morphological parameters of optic disc and retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) examined with confocal laser tomography (HRT3) and laser polarimetry (GDx-VCC) in a normal population, and analyze correlations of these parameters with demographic variables. Cross-sectional study in the context of a glaucoma screening campaign in the primary care center of Barcelona. The individuals selected were non-hypertensive Mediterranean Caucasians with risk for glaucoma development (individuals≥60 years old or≥40 years old with family history of glaucoma or intraocular pressure or myopia>3diopter). All subjects underwent a complete ophthalmic examination, confocal laser tomography (HRT3) and scanning laser polarimetry (GDX-VCC), subjects with results within normal limits only being included. Structural parameters were analyzed along with age, refraction, and pachymetry based on the Spearman rank correlation test. A total of 224 subjects included, with a mean age of 63.4±11.1 years. Disc areas, excavation and ring area were 2.14±0.52mm(2), 0.44±0.34mm (2) and 1.69±0.38mm(2), respectively. The mean RNFL (GDX) was 55.9±6.9μm. Age was correlated with lower ring volume, highest rate of cup shape measure, largest mean and maximum cup depth, lower nerve fiber index (NFI) and RNFL (all p-values below .05). The mean values and distribution of several parameters of the papilla and the RNFL in normal Mediterranean Caucasians population are presented. A loss of thickness of the RNFL, ring thinning, and enlarged cup was observed with increased age. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Oftalmología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Male reproductive system parameters in a two-generation reproduction study of ammonium perfluorooctanoate in rats and human relevance.

PubMed

York, Raymond G; Kennedy, Gerald L; Olsen, Geary W; Butenhoff, John L

2010-04-30

Ammonium perfluorooctanoate (ammonium PFOA) is an industrial surfactant that has been used primarily as a processing aid in the manufacture of fluoropolymers. The environmental and metabolic stability of PFOA together with its presence in human blood and long elimination half-life have led to extensive toxicological studies in laboratory animals. Two recent publications based on observations from the Danish general population have reported: (1) a negative association between serum concentrations of PFOA in young adult males and their sperm counts and (2) a positive association among women with time to pregnancy. A two-generation reproduction study in rats was previously published (2004) in which no effects on functional reproduction were observed at doses up to 30mg ammonium PFOA/kg body weight. The article contained the simple statement: "In males, fertility was normal as were all sperm parameters". In order to place the recent human epidemiological data in perspective, herein we provide the detailed male reproductive parameters from that study, including sperm quality and testicular histopathology. Sperm parameters in rats from the two-generation study in all ammonium PFOA treatment groups were unaffected by treatment with ammonium PFOA. These observations reflected the normal fertility observations in these males. No evidence of altered testicular and sperm structure and function was observed in ammonium PFOA-treated rats whose mean group serum PFOA concentrations ranged up to approximately 50,000ng/mL. Given that median serum PFOA in the Danish cohorts was approximately 5ng/mL, it seems unlikely that concentrations observed in the general population, including those recently reported in Danish general population, could be associated causally with a real decrement in sperm number and quality.

Crossover between structured and well-mixed networks in an evolutionary prisoner's dilemma game

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, Qionglin; Cheng, Hongyan; Li, Haihong; Li, Yuting; Zhang, Mei; Yang, Junzhong

2011-07-01

In a spatial evolutionary prisoner’s dilemma game (PDG), individuals interact with their neighbors and update their strategies according to some rules. As is well known, cooperators are destined to become extinct in a well-mixed population, whereas they could emerge and be sustained on a structured network. In this work, we introduce a simple model to investigate the crossover between a structured network and a well-mixed one in an evolutionary PDG. In the model, each link j is designated a rewiring parameter τj, which defines the time interval between two successive rewiring events for link j. By adjusting the rewiring parameter τ (the mean time interval for any link in the network), we could change a structured network into a well-mixed one. For the link rewiring events, three situations are considered: one synchronous situation and two asynchronous situations. Simulation results show that there are three regimes of τ: large τ where the density of cooperators ρc rises to ρc,∞ (the value of ρc for the case without link rewiring), small τ where the mean-field description for a well-mixed network is applicable, and moderate τ where the crossover between a structured network and a well-mixed one happens.

Temporal Genetic Dynamics of an Invasive Species, Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), in an Early Phase of Establishment.

PubMed

Yang, Xian-Ming; Lou, Heng; Sun, Jing-Tao; Zhu, Yi-Ming; Xue, Xiao-Feng; Hong, Xiao-Yue

2015-07-03

Many species can successfully colonize new areas despite their propagules having low genetic variation. We assessed whether the decreased genetic diversity could result in temporal fluctuations of genetic parameters of the new populations of an invasive species, western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis, using mitochondrial and microsatellite markers. This study was conducted in eight localities from four climate regions in China, where F. occidentalis was introduced in the year 2000 and had lower genetic diversity than its native populations. We also tested the level of genetic differentiation in these introduced populations. The genetic diversity of the samples at different years in the same locality was not significantly different from each other in most localities. FST and STRUCTURE analysis also showed that most temporal population comparisons from the same sites were not significantly differentiated. Our results showed that the invasive populations of F. occidentalis in China can maintain temporal stability in genetic composition at an early phase of establishment despite having lower genetic diversity than in their native range.

Demographic aspects of climate change mitigation and adaptation.

PubMed

Lutz, Wolfgang; Striessnig, Erich

2015-01-01

This paper addresses the contribution of changes in population size and structures to greenhouse gas emissions and to the capacity to adapt to climate change. The paper goes beyond the conventional focus on the changing composition by age and sex. It does so by addressing explicitly the changing composition of the population by level of educational attainment, taking into account new evidence about the effect of educational attainment in reducing significantly the vulnerability of populations to climatic challenges. This evidence, which has inspired a new generation of socio-economic climate change scenarios, is summarized. While the earlier IPCC-SRES (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emissions Scenarios) scenarios only included alternative trajectories for total population size (treating population essentially as a scaling parameter), the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) in the new scenarios were designed to capture the socio-economic challenges to climate change mitigation and adaptation, and include full age, sex, and education details for all countries.

A Free Energy Barrier Caused by the Refolding of an Oligomeric Intermediate Controls the Lag Time of Amyloid Formation by hIAPP.

PubMed

Serrano, Arnaldo L; Lomont, Justin P; Tu, Ling-Hsien; Raleigh, Daniel P; Zanni, Martin T

2017-11-22

Transiently populated oligomers formed en route to amyloid fibrils may constitute the most toxic aggregates associated with many amyloid-associated diseases. Most nucleation theories used to describe amyloid aggregation predict low oligomer concentrations and do not take into account free energy costs that may be associated with structural rearrangements between the oligomer and fiber states. We have used isotope labeling and two-dimensional infrared spectroscopy to spectrally resolve an oligomeric intermediate during the aggregation of the human islet amyloid protein (hIAPP or amylin), the protein associated with type II diabetes. A structural rearrangement includes the F 23 G 24 A 25 I 26 L 27 region of hIAPP, which starts from a random coil structure, evolves into ordered β-sheet oligomers containing at least 5 strands, and then partially disorders in the fibril structure. The supercritical concentration is measured to be between 150 and 250 μM, which is the thermodynamic parameter that sets the free energy of the oligomers. A 3-state kinetic model fits the experimental data, but only if it includes a concentration independent free energy barrier >3 kcal/mol that represents the free energy cost of refolding the oligomeric intermediate into the structure of the amyloid fibril; i.e., "oligomer activation" is required. The barrier creates a transition state in the free energy landscape that slows fibril formation and creates a stable population of oligomers during the lag phase, even at concentrations below the supercritical concentration. Largely missing in current kinetic models is a link between structure and kinetics. Our experiments and modeling provide evidence that protein structural rearrangements during aggregation impact the populations and kinetics of toxic oligomeric species.

Early abnormalities of cardiovascular structure and function in middle-aged Korean adults with prehypertension: The Korean Genome Epidemiology study.

PubMed

Kim, Seong Hwan; Cho, Goo-Yeong; Baik, Inkyung; Lim, Sang Yup; Choi, Cheol Ung; Lim, Hong Euy; Kim, Eung Ju; Park, Chang Gyu; Park, Juri; Kim, Jinyoung; Shin, Chol

2011-02-01

Prehypertension is associated with increased cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, there are few population-based studies on the changes of cardiovascular structure and function that characterize prehypertension. The aim of this study was to assess whether prehypertension is associated with abnormalities of cardiovascular structure and function in the general Korean population. We analyzed the cross-sectional relationships between prehypertension and cardiovascular structure and function in a sample from the Korean Genome Epidemiology Study. A total of 1,671 individuals (54.5% women; mean age: 53 ± 6 years) without hypertension and diabetes mellitus were enrolled. Cardiovascular structure and function were assessed by conventional echocardiography, tissue Doppler imaging (TDI), carotid ultrasonography, and pulse wave velocity (PWV). The left ventricular (LV) mass index was significantly higher in subjects with prehypertension than in those with normotension (41 ± 8 g/m²·⁷ vs. 38 ± 7 g/m²·⁷, P < 0.001). LV diastolic parameters, such as the E/A ratio, TDI E(a) velocity, and E/E(a) ratio, were also impaired in subjects with prehypertension (all P < 0.001). Compared with normotension, prehypertension was characterized by a significantly higher common carotid artery intima-media thickness and a higher brachial-ankle PWV (all P < 0.001). These abnormalities of cardiovascular structure and function remained significant after adjustment for covariates. In this population-based cohort, we found that subtle alterations in cardiovascular structure and function were already present at the prehypertensive stage. Whether such subtle alterations convey an increased risk of cardiovascular events and whether the changes are reversible with treatment warrant further study.

Weibull crack density coefficient for polydimensional stress states

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, Bernard; Gyekenyesi, John P.

1989-01-01

A structural ceramic analysis and reliability evaluation code has recently been developed encompassing volume and surface flaw induced fracture, modeled by the two-parameter Weibull probability density function. A segment of the software involves computing the Weibull polydimensional stress state crack density coefficient from uniaxial stress experimental fracture data. The relationship of the polydimensional stress coefficient to the uniaxial stress coefficient is derived for a shear-insensitive material with a random surface flaw population.

Applications of bioenergetics models to fish ecology and management: where do we go from here?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hansen, Michael J.; Boisclair, Daniel; Brandt, Stephen B.; Hewett, Steven W.; Kitchell, James F.; Lucas, Martyn C.; Ney, John J.

1993-01-01

Papers and panel discussions given during a 1992 symposium on bioenergetics models are summarized. Bioenergetics models have been applied to a variety of research and management questions related to fish stocks, populations, food webs, and ecosystems. Applications include estimates of the intensity and dynamics of predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling within aquatic food webs of varying trophic structure, and food requirements of single animals, whole populations, and communities of fishes. As tools in food web and ecosystem applications, bioenergetics models have been used to compare forage consumption by salmonid predators across the Laurentian Great Lakes for single populations and whole communities, and to estimate the growth potential of pelagic predators in Chesapeake Bay and Lake Ontario. Some critics say that bioenergetics models lack sufficient detail to produce reliable results in such field applications, whereas others say that the models are too complex to be useful tools for fishery managers. Nevertheless, bioenergetics models have achieved notable predictive successes. Improved estimates are needed for model parameters such as metabolic costs of activity, and more complete studies are needed of the bioenergetics of larval and juvenile fishes. Future research on bioenergetics should include laboratory and field measurements of key model parameters such as weight-dependent maximum consumption, respiration and activity, and thermal habitats actually occupied by fish. Future applications of bioenergetics models to fish populations also depend on accurate estimates of population sizes and survival rates.

Functional Response and Matrix Population Model of Podisus nigrispinus (Dallas, 1851) (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) fed on Chrysomya putoria (Wiedemann, 1818) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) as Alternative Prey.

PubMed

Botteon, V W; Neves, J A; Godoy, W A C

2017-04-01

Among the predators with high potential for use in biological control, the species of the genus Podisus (Hemiptera: Pentatomidae) have received special attention for laboratory rearing, since they feed on different agricultural and forestry pest insects. However, the type of diet offered to insects in the laboratory may affect the viability of populations, expressed essentially by demographic parameters such as survival and fecundity. This study assessed demographic and development aspects in experimental populations of Podisus nigrispinus (Dallas, 1851) fed on larvae of Chrysomya putoria (Wiedemann, 1818) (Diptera: Calliphoridae) as an alternative prey. The demographic parameters fecundity and survival were investigated in life stages of P. nigrispinus with ecological modeling, by applying the Leslie matrix population model, producing histograms of life stages in successive time steps. The functional response of P. nigrispinus was also investigated on seven densities of C. putoria third-instar larvae at 24 and 48 h. The survival of predators that reached adulthood was 65% and the development time from egg to adult was 23.15 days. The predator showed a type III functional response for consumption of C. putoria at 24 and 48 h. The Leslie-matrix simulation of the age structure provided perpetuation of the predator population over time steps and the prey proved to be feasible for use in rearing and maintenance of P. nigrispinus in the laboratory.

Forecasting the mortality rates using Lee-Carter model and Heligman-Pollard model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, R. I.; Ngataman, N.; Abrisam, W. N. A. Wan Mohd

2017-09-01

Improvement in life expectancies has driven further declines in mortality. The sustained reduction in mortality rates and its systematic underestimation has been attracting the significant interest of researchers in recent years because of its potential impact on population size and structure, social security systems, and (from an actuarial perspective) the life insurance and pensions industry worldwide. Among all forecasting methods, the Lee-Carter model has been widely accepted by the actuarial community and Heligman-Pollard model has been widely used by researchers in modelling and forecasting future mortality. Therefore, this paper only focuses on Lee-Carter model and Heligman-Pollard model. The main objective of this paper is to investigate how accurately these two models will perform using Malaysian data. Since these models involves nonlinear equations that are explicitly difficult to solve, the Matrix Laboratory Version 8.0 (MATLAB 8.0) software will be used to estimate the parameters of the models. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) procedure is applied to acquire the forecasted parameters for both models as the forecasted mortality rates are obtained by using all the values of forecasted parameters. To investigate the accuracy of the estimation, the forecasted results will be compared against actual data of mortality rates. The results indicate that both models provide better results for male population. However, for the elderly female population, Heligman-Pollard model seems to underestimate to the mortality rates while Lee-Carter model seems to overestimate to the mortality rates.

Chaotic attractors and physical measures for some density dependent Leslie population models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ugarcovici, Ilie; Weiss, Howard

2007-12-01

Following ecologists' discoveries, mathematicians have begun studying extensions of the ubiquitous age structured Leslie population model that allow some survival probabilities and/or fertility rates to depend on population densities. These nonlinear extensions commonly exhibit very complicated dynamics: through computer studies, some authors have discovered robust Hénon-like strange attractors in several families. Population biologists and demographers frequently wish to average a function over many generations and conclude that the average is independent of the initial population distribution. This type of 'ergodicity' seems to be a fundamental tenet in population biology. In this paper we develop the first rigorous ergodic theoretic framework for density dependent Leslie population models. We study two generation models with Ricker and Hassell (recruitment type) fertility terms. We prove that for some parameter regions these models admit a chaotic (ergodic) attractor which supports a unique physical probability measure. This physical measure, having full Lebesgue measure basin, satisfies in the strongest possible sense the population biologist's requirement for ergodicity in their population models. We use the celebrated work of Wang and Young 2001 Commun. Math. Phys. 218 1-97, and our results are the first applications of their method to biology, ecology or demography.

Environmental controls on spatial patterns in the long-term persistence of giant kelp in central California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Young, Mary Alida; Cavanaugh, Kyle C.; Bell, Tom W.; Raimondi, Peter T.; Edwards, Christopher A.; Drake, Patrick T.; Erikson, Li H.; Storlazzi, Curt

2016-01-01

As marine management is moving towards the practice of protecting static areas, it is 44 important to make sure protected areas capture and protect persistent populations. Rocky reefs in 45 many temperate areas worldwide serve as habitat for canopy forming macroalgae and these 46 structure forming species of kelps (order Laminariales) often serve as important habitat for a great 47 diversity of species. Macrocystis pyrifera is the most common canopy forming kelp species found 48 along the coast of California but the distribution and abundance of M. pyrifera varies in space and 49 time. The purpose of this study is to determine what environmental parameters are correlated with 50 the spatial and temporal persistence of M. pyrifera along the central coast of California and how 51 well those environmental parameters can be used to predict areas where M. pyrifera is more likely 52 to persist. Nine environmental variables considered in this study included depth of the seafloor, 53 structure of the rocky reef, proportion of rocky reef, size of kelp patch, biomass of kelp within a 54 patch, distance from the edge of a kelp patch, sea surface temperature, wave orbital velocities, and 55 population connectivity of individual kelp patches. Using a generalized linear mixed effects model 56 (GLMM), the persistence of M. pyrifera was significantly associated with seven of the nine 57 variables considered: depth, complexity of the rocky reef, proportion of rock, patch biomass, 58 distance from the edge of a patch, population connectivity, and wave-orbital velocities. These 59 seven environmental variables were then used to predict the persistence of kelp across the central 60 coast and these predictions were compared to a reserved dataset of M. pyrifera persistence, which 61 was not used in the creation of the GLMM. The environmental variables were shown to accurately 62 predict the persistence of M. pyrifera within the central coast of California (r = 0.71, P<0.001). 63 Because persistence of giant kelp is important to the community structure of kelp forests, 64 understanding those factors that support persistent populations of M. pyrifera will enable more 65 effective management of these ecosystems.

Predation and fragmentation portrayed in the statistical structure of prey time series

PubMed Central

Hendrichsen, Ditte K; Topping, Chris J; Forchhammer, Mads C

2009-01-01

Background Statistical autoregressive analyses of direct and delayed density dependence are widespread in ecological research. The models suggest that changes in ecological factors affecting density dependence, like predation and landscape heterogeneity are directly portrayed in the first and second order autoregressive parameters, and the models are therefore used to decipher complex biological patterns. However, independent tests of model predictions are complicated by the inherent variability of natural populations, where differences in landscape structure, climate or species composition prevent controlled repeated analyses. To circumvent this problem, we applied second-order autoregressive time series analyses to data generated by a realistic agent-based computer model. The model simulated life history decisions of individual field voles under controlled variations in predator pressure and landscape fragmentation. Analyses were made on three levels: comparisons between predated and non-predated populations, between populations exposed to different types of predators and between populations experiencing different degrees of habitat fragmentation. Results The results are unambiguous: Changes in landscape fragmentation and the numerical response of predators are clearly portrayed in the statistical time series structure as predicted by the autoregressive model. Populations without predators displayed significantly stronger negative direct density dependence than did those exposed to predators, where direct density dependence was only moderately negative. The effects of predation versus no predation had an even stronger effect on the delayed density dependence of the simulated prey populations. In non-predated prey populations, the coefficients of delayed density dependence were distinctly positive, whereas they were negative in predated populations. Similarly, increasing the degree of fragmentation of optimal habitat available to the prey was accompanied with a shift in the delayed density dependence, from strongly negative to gradually becoming less negative. Conclusion We conclude that statistical second-order autoregressive time series analyses are capable of deciphering interactions within and across trophic levels and their effect on direct and delayed density dependence. PMID:19419539

The Evonik-Mainz Eye Care-Study (EMECS): Development of an Expert System for Glaucoma Risk Detection in a Working Population

PubMed Central

Wahl, Jochen; Barleon, Lorenz; Morfeld, Peter; Lichtmeß, Andrea; Haas-Brähler, Sibylle; Pfeiffer, Norbert

2016-01-01

Purpose To develop an expert system for glaucoma screening in a working population based on a human expert procedure using images of optic nerve head (ONH), visual field (frequency doubling technology, FDT) and intraocular pressure (IOP). Methods 4167 of 13037 (32%) employees between 40 and 65 years of Evonik Industries were screened. An experienced glaucoma expert (JW) assessed papilla parameters and evaluated all individual screening results. His classification into “no glaucoma”, “possible glaucoma” and “probable glaucoma” was defined as “gold standard”. A screening model was developed which was tested versus the gold-standard. This model took into account the assessment of the ONH. Values and relationships of CDR and IOP and the FDT were considered additionally and a glaucoma score was generated. The structure of the screening model was specified a priori whereas values of the parameters were chosen post-hoc to optimize sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm. Simple screening models based on IOP and / or FDT were investigated for comparison. Results 111 persons (2.66%) were classified as glaucoma suspects, thereof 13 (0.31%) as probable and 98 (2.35%) as possible glaucoma suspects by the expert. Re-evaluation by the screening model revealed a sensitivity of 83.8% and a specificity of 99.6% for all glaucoma suspects. The positive predictive value of the model was 80.2%, the negative predictive value 99.6%. Simple screening models showed insufficient diagnostic accuracy. Conclusion Adjustment of ONH and symmetry parameters with respect to excavation and IOP in an expert system produced sufficiently satisfying diagnostic accuracy. This screening model seems to be applicable in such a working population with relatively low age and low glaucoma prevalence. Different experts should validate the model in different populations. PMID:27479301

Model-Based Approach to Predict Adherence to Protocol During Antiobesity Trials.

PubMed

Sharma, Vishnu D; Combes, François P; Vakilynejad, Majid; Lahu, Gezim; Lesko, Lawrence J; Trame, Mirjam N

2018-02-01

Development of antiobesity drugs is continuously challenged by high dropout rates during clinical trials. The objective was to develop a population pharmacodynamic model that describes the temporal changes in body weight, considering disease progression, lifestyle intervention, and drug effects. Markov modeling (MM) was applied for quantification and characterization of responder and nonresponder as key drivers of dropout rates, to ultimately support the clinical trial simulations and the outcome in terms of trial adherence. Subjects (n = 4591) from 6 Contrave ® trials were included in this analysis. An indirect-response model developed by van Wart et al was used as a starting point. Inclusion of drug effect was dose driven using a population dose- and time-dependent pharmacodynamic (DTPD) model. Additionally, a population-pharmacokinetic parameter- and data (PPPD)-driven model was developed using the final DTPD model structure and final parameter estimates from a previously developed population pharmacokinetic model based on available Contrave ® pharmacokinetic concentrations. Last, MM was developed to predict transition rate probabilities among responder, nonresponder, and dropout states driven by the pharmacodynamic effect resulting from the DTPD or PPPD model. Covariates included in the models and parameters were diabetes mellitus and race. The linked DTPD-MM and PPPD-MM was able to predict transition rates among responder, nonresponder, and dropout states well. The analysis concluded that body-weight change is an important factor influencing dropout rates, and the MM depicted that overall a DTPD model-driven approach provides a reasonable prediction of clinical trial outcome probabilities similar to a pharmacokinetic-driven approach. © 2017, The Authors. The Journal of Clinical Pharmacology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

Modeling the winter-to-summer transition of prokaryotic and viral abundance in the Arctic Ocean.

PubMed

Winter, Christian; Payet, Jérôme P; Suttle, Curtis A

2012-01-01

One of the challenges in oceanography is to understand the influence of environmental factors on the abundances of prokaryotes and viruses. Generally, conventional statistical methods resolve trends well, but more complex relationships are difficult to explore. In such cases, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) offer an alternative way for data analysis. Here, we developed ANN-based models of prokaryotic and viral abundances in the Arctic Ocean. The models were used to identify the best predictors for prokaryotic and viral abundances including cytometrically-distinguishable populations of prokaryotes (high and low nucleic acid cells) and viruses (high- and low-fluorescent viruses) among salinity, temperature, depth, day length, and the concentration of Chlorophyll-a. The best performing ANNs to model the abundances of high and low nucleic acid cells used temperature and Chl-a as input parameters, while the abundances of high- and low-fluorescent viruses used depth, Chl-a, and day length as input parameters. Decreasing viral abundance with increasing depth and decreasing system productivity was captured well by the ANNs. Despite identifying the same predictors for the two populations of prokaryotes and viruses, respectively, the structure of the best performing ANNs differed between high and low nucleic acid cells and between high- and low-fluorescent viruses. Also, the two prokaryotic and viral groups responded differently to changes in the predictor parameters; hence, the cytometric distinction between these populations is ecologically relevant. The models imply that temperature is the main factor explaining most of the variation in the abundances of high nucleic acid cells and total prokaryotes and that the mechanisms governing the reaction to changes in the environment are distinctly different among the prokaryotic and viral populations.

Modeling the Winter–to–Summer Transition of Prokaryotic and Viral Abundance in the Arctic Ocean

PubMed Central

Winter, Christian; Payet, Jérôme P.; Suttle, Curtis A.

2012-01-01

One of the challenges in oceanography is to understand the influence of environmental factors on the abundances of prokaryotes and viruses. Generally, conventional statistical methods resolve trends well, but more complex relationships are difficult to explore. In such cases, Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) offer an alternative way for data analysis. Here, we developed ANN-based models of prokaryotic and viral abundances in the Arctic Ocean. The models were used to identify the best predictors for prokaryotic and viral abundances including cytometrically-distinguishable populations of prokaryotes (high and low nucleic acid cells) and viruses (high- and low-fluorescent viruses) among salinity, temperature, depth, day length, and the concentration of Chlorophyll-a. The best performing ANNs to model the abundances of high and low nucleic acid cells used temperature and Chl-a as input parameters, while the abundances of high- and low-fluorescent viruses used depth, Chl-a, and day length as input parameters. Decreasing viral abundance with increasing depth and decreasing system productivity was captured well by the ANNs. Despite identifying the same predictors for the two populations of prokaryotes and viruses, respectively, the structure of the best performing ANNs differed between high and low nucleic acid cells and between high- and low-fluorescent viruses. Also, the two prokaryotic and viral groups responded differently to changes in the predictor parameters; hence, the cytometric distinction between these populations is ecologically relevant. The models imply that temperature is the main factor explaining most of the variation in the abundances of high nucleic acid cells and total prokaryotes and that the mechanisms governing the reaction to changes in the environment are distinctly different among the prokaryotic and viral populations. PMID:23285186

The Evonik-Mainz Eye Care-Study (EMECS): Development of an Expert System for Glaucoma Risk Detection in a Working Population.

PubMed

Wahl, Jochen; Barleon, Lorenz; Morfeld, Peter; Lichtmeß, Andrea; Haas-Brähler, Sibylle; Pfeiffer, Norbert

2016-01-01

To develop an expert system for glaucoma screening in a working population based on a human expert procedure using images of optic nerve head (ONH), visual field (frequency doubling technology, FDT) and intraocular pressure (IOP). 4167 of 13037 (32%) employees between 40 and 65 years of Evonik Industries were screened. An experienced glaucoma expert (JW) assessed papilla parameters and evaluated all individual screening results. His classification into "no glaucoma", "possible glaucoma" and "probable glaucoma" was defined as "gold standard". A screening model was developed which was tested versus the gold-standard. This model took into account the assessment of the ONH. Values and relationships of CDR and IOP and the FDT were considered additionally and a glaucoma score was generated. The structure of the screening model was specified a priori whereas values of the parameters were chosen post-hoc to optimize sensitivity and specificity of the algorithm. Simple screening models based on IOP and / or FDT were investigated for comparison. 111 persons (2.66%) were classified as glaucoma suspects, thereof 13 (0.31%) as probable and 98 (2.35%) as possible glaucoma suspects by the expert. Re-evaluation by the screening model revealed a sensitivity of 83.8% and a specificity of 99.6% for all glaucoma suspects. The positive predictive value of the model was 80.2%, the negative predictive value 99.6%. Simple screening models showed insufficient diagnostic accuracy. Adjustment of ONH and symmetry parameters with respect to excavation and IOP in an expert system produced sufficiently satisfying diagnostic accuracy. This screening model seems to be applicable in such a working population with relatively low age and low glaucoma prevalence. Different experts should validate the model in different populations.

Postfire regeneration in Cytisus oromediterraneus: sources of variation and morphology of the below-ground parts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández-Santos, Belén; Martínez, Carolina; García, Jose A.; Puerto, Angel

2004-10-01

Postfire regeneration in Cytisus oromediterraneus, a Mediterranean-basin mountain matorral species, shows a wide range of possibilities and variations in sexual and asexual regeneration. Its interpretation requires basic information on the below-ground structure of parent plants as well as on the origin and development of seedlings and various ramet (sprout clump) types: rootstock, basal-branch, and lateral-root ramets. Morphology and emergence of such ramets in C. oromediterraneus is similar to that in related species but with some specific features described here in detail. In order to determine if characteristics of 1-year-old populations depended on the age of the burned parent plants, two populations were investigated: (A 7-year-old, and B 14-year-old). In the most frequent populations in our study area, i.e. those from parent populations of ca. 7 years (A): a—plant density and biomass were highly variable and positively correlated; b—frequency distribution differed significantly from normal distribution for plant weight, but not for other parameters such as diameters, perimeter, and height, in which it did, however, show asymmetry; c—perimeter was the best parameter for estimating individuals' weight; d—there was a higher number of seedlings than ramets but their biomass was smaller; e—the size of seedlings and ramets showed wide variation. In comparison with population A (7-year-old) population B (14-year-old) showed: significantly higher density, slightly lower biomass, higher number of small individuals, mainly seedlings, and less vigorous resprouting. In general, 1 year after fire, Cytisus oromeditarraneus population density mainly depends on the germination response, while the above-ground biomass mainly depends on the vegetative response and the intensity of both of them is conditioned by parent plant age.

Quantifying the Role of Population Subdivision in Evolution on Rugged Fitness Landscapes

PubMed Central

Bitbol, Anne-Florence; Schwab, David J.

2014-01-01

Natural selection drives populations towards higher fitness, but crossing fitness valleys or plateaus may facilitate progress up a rugged fitness landscape involving epistasis. We investigate quantitatively the effect of subdividing an asexual population on the time it takes to cross a fitness valley or plateau. We focus on a generic and minimal model that includes only population subdivision into equivalent demes connected by global migration, and does not require significant size changes of the demes, environmental heterogeneity or specific geographic structure. We determine the optimal speedup of valley or plateau crossing that can be gained by subdivision, if the process is driven by the deme that crosses fastest. We show that isolated demes have to be in the sequential fixation regime for subdivision to significantly accelerate crossing. Using Markov chain theory, we obtain analytical expressions for the conditions under which optimal speedup is achieved: valley or plateau crossing by the subdivided population is then as fast as that of its fastest deme. We verify our analytical predictions through stochastic simulations. We demonstrate that subdivision can substantially accelerate the crossing of fitness valleys and plateaus in a wide range of parameters extending beyond the optimal window. We study the effect of varying the degree of subdivision of a population, and investigate the trade-off between the magnitude of the optimal speedup and the width of the parameter range over which it occurs. Our results, obtained for fitness valleys and plateaus, also hold for weakly beneficial intermediate mutations. Finally, we extend our work to the case of a population connected by migration to one or several smaller islands. Our results demonstrate that subdivision with migration alone can significantly accelerate the crossing of fitness valleys and plateaus, and shed light onto the quantitative conditions necessary for this to occur. PMID:25122220

Bridging the gaps between non-invasive genetic sampling and population parameter estimation

Treesearch

Francesca Marucco; Luigi Boitani; Daniel H. Pletscher; Michael K. Schwartz

2011-01-01

Reliable estimates of population parameters are necessary for effective management and conservation actions. The use of genetic data for capture­recapture (CR) analyses has become an important tool to estimate population parameters for elusive species. Strong emphasis has been placed on the genetic analysis of non-invasive samples, or on the CR analysis; however,...

Recombination-Driven Genome Evolution and Stability of Bacterial Species.

PubMed

Dixit, Purushottam D; Pang, Tin Yau; Maslov, Sergei

2017-09-01

While bacteria divide clonally, horizontal gene transfer followed by homologous recombination is now recognized as an important contributor to their evolution. However, the details of how the competition between clonality and recombination shapes genome diversity remains poorly understood. Using a computational model, we find two principal regimes in bacterial evolution and identify two composite parameters that dictate the evolutionary fate of bacterial species. In the divergent regime, characterized by either a low recombination frequency or strict barriers to recombination, cohesion due to recombination is not sufficient to overcome the mutational drift. As a consequence, the divergence between pairs of genomes in the population steadily increases in the course of their evolution. The species lacks genetic coherence with sexually isolated clonal subpopulations continuously formed and dissolved. In contrast, in the metastable regime, characterized by a high recombination frequency combined with low barriers to recombination, genomes continuously recombine with the rest of the population. The population remains genetically cohesive and temporally stable. Notably, the transition between these two regimes can be affected by relatively small changes in evolutionary parameters. Using the Multi Locus Sequence Typing (MLST) data, we classify a number of bacterial species to be either the divergent or the metastable type. Generalizations of our framework to include selection, ecologically structured populations, and horizontal gene transfer of nonhomologous regions are discussed as well. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

A New Method for Determining Structure Ensemble: Application to a RNA Binding Di-Domain Protein.

PubMed

Liu, Wei; Zhang, Jingfeng; Fan, Jing-Song; Tria, Giancarlo; Grüber, Gerhard; Yang, Daiwen

2016-05-10

Structure ensemble determination is the basis of understanding the structure-function relationship of a multidomain protein with weak domain-domain interactions. Paramagnetic relaxation enhancement has been proven a powerful tool in the study of structure ensembles, but there exist a number of challenges such as spin-label flexibility, domain dynamics, and overfitting. Here we propose a new (to our knowledge) method to describe structure ensembles using a minimal number of conformers. In this method, individual domains are considered rigid; the position of each spin-label conformer and the structure of each protein conformer are defined by three and six orthogonal parameters, respectively. First, the spin-label ensemble is determined by optimizing the positions and populations of spin-label conformers against intradomain paramagnetic relaxation enhancements with a genetic algorithm. Subsequently, the protein structure ensemble is optimized using a more efficient genetic algorithm-based approach and an overfitting indicator, both of which were established in this work. The method was validated using a reference ensemble with a set of conformers whose populations and structures are known. This method was also applied to study the structure ensemble of the tandem di-domain of a poly (U) binding protein. The determined ensemble was supported by small-angle x-ray scattering and nuclear magnetic resonance relaxation data. The ensemble obtained suggests an induced fit mechanism for recognition of target RNA by the protein. Copyright © 2016 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Swift Foxes and Ideal Free Distribution: Relative Influence of Vegetation and Rodent Prey Base on Swift Fox Survival, Density, and Home Range Size

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-01-01

of exploiting a wide range of habitats, reported population parameters such as density and survival vary widely indicating variation in habitat quality...more strongly influenced by the “riskiness” of the habitat than by resource availability [8]. Swift fox population parameters in different landscapes...we explored the effects of landscape heterogeneity on population parameters likely to reflect habitat quality, such as population density, home range

Temporal variability of local abundance, sex ratio and activity in the Sardinian chalk hill blue butterfly

USGS Publications Warehouse

Casula, P.; Nichols, J.D.

2003-01-01

When capturing and marking of individuals is possible, the application of newly developed capture-recapture models can remove several sources of bias in the estimation of population parameters such as local abundance and sex ratio. For example, observation of distorted sex ratios in counts or captures can reflect either different abundances of the sexes or different sex-specific capture probabilities, and capture-recapture models can help distinguish between these two possibilities. Robust design models and a model selection procedure based on information-theoretic methods were applied to study the local population structure of the endemic Sardinian chalk hill blue butterfly, Polyommatus coridon gennargenti. Seasonal variations of abundance, plus daily and weather-related variations of active populations of males and females were investigated. Evidence was found of protandry and male pioneering of the breeding space. Temporary emigration probability, which describes the proportion of the population not exposed to capture (e.g. absent from the study area) during the sampling process, was estimated, differed between sexes, and was related to temperature, a factor known to influence animal activity. The correlation between temporary emigration and average daily temperature suggested interpreting temporary emigration as inactivity of animals. Robust design models were used successfully to provide a detailed description of the population structure and activity in this butterfly and are recommended for studies of local abundance and animal activity in the field.

Moran model as a dynamical process on networks and its implications for neutral speciation.

PubMed

de Aguiar, Marcus A M; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

2011-09-01

In population genetics, the Moran model describes the neutral evolution of a biallelic gene in a population of haploid individuals subjected to mutations. We show in this paper that this model can be mapped into an influence dynamical process on networks subjected to external influences. The panmictic case considered by Moran corresponds to fully connected networks and can be completely solved in terms of hypergeometric functions. Other types of networks correspond to structured populations, for which approximate solutions are also available. This approach to the classic Moran model leads to a relation between regular networks based on spatial grids and the mechanism of isolation by distance. We discuss the consequences of this connection for topopatric speciation and the theory of neutral speciation and biodiversity. We show that the effect of mutations in structured populations, where individuals can mate only with neighbors, is greatly enhanced with respect to the panmictic case. If mating is further constrained by genetic proximity between individuals, a balance of opposing tendencies takes place: increasing diversity promoted by enhanced effective mutations versus decreasing diversity promoted by similarity between mates. Resolution of large enough opposing tendencies occurs through speciation via pattern formation. We derive an explicit expression that indicates when speciation is possible involving the parameters characterizing the population. We also show that the time to speciation is greatly reduced in comparison with the panmictic case.

Moran model as a dynamical process on networks and its implications for neutral speciation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Aguiar, Marcus A. M.; Bar-Yam, Yaneer

2011-03-01

In population genetics, the Moran model describes the neutral evolution of a biallelic gene in a population of haploid individuals subjected to mutations. We show in this paper that this model can be mapped into an influence dynamical process on networks subjected to external influences. The panmictic case considered by Moran corresponds to fully connected networks and can be completely solved in terms of hypergeometric functions. Other types of networks correspond to structured populations, for which approximate solutions are also available. This approach to the classic Moran model leads to a relation between regular networks based on spatial grids and the mechanism of isolation by distance. We discuss the consequences of this connection for topopatric speciation and the theory of neutral speciation and biodiversity. We show that the effect of mutations in structured populations, where individuals can mate only with neighbors, is greatly enhanced with respect to the panmictic case. If mating is further constrained by genetic proximity between individuals, a balance of opposing tendencies takes place: increasing diversity promoted by enhanced effective mutations versus decreasing diversity promoted by similarity between mates. Resolution of large enough opposing tendencies occurs through speciation via pattern formation. We derive an explicit expression that indicates when speciation is possible involving the parameters characterizing the population. We also show that the time to speciation is greatly reduced in comparison with the panmictic case.

Comparative age and growth of common snook Centropomus undecimalis (Pisces: Centropomidae) from coastal and riverine areas in Southern Mexico.

PubMed

Perera-Garcia, Martha A; Mendoza-Carranza, Manuel; Contreras-Sánchez, Wilfrido; Ferrara, Allyse; Huerta-Ortiz, Maricela; Hernández-Gómez, Raúl E

2013-06-01

Common snook Centropomus unidecimalis is an important commercial and fishery species in Southern Mexico, however the high exploitation rates have resulted in a strong reduction of its abundances. Since, the information about its population structure is scarce, the objective of the present research was to determine and compare the age structure in four important fishery sites. For this, age and growth of common snook were determined from specimens collected monthly, from July 2006 to March 2008, from two coastal (Barra Bosque and Barra San Pedro) and two riverine (San Pedro and Tres Brazos) commercial fishery sites in Tabasco, Mexico. Age was determined using sectioned saggitae otoliths and data analyzed by von Bertalanffy and Levenberg-Marquardt among others. Estimated ages ranged from 2 to 17 years. Monthly patterns of marginal increment formation and the percentage of otoliths with opaque rings on the outer edge demonstrated that a single annulus was formed each year. The von Bertalanffy parameters were calculated for males and females using linear adjustment and the non-linear method of Levenberg-Marquardt. The von Bertalanffy growth equations were FLt = 109.21(1-e-0.2(t+0.57)) for Barra Bosque, FLt = 94.56(1-e-027(t+0.485)) for Barra San Pedro, FLt = 97.15(1-e 0.17(t + 1.32)) for San Pedro and FLt = 83.77(1-e-026(t + 0.49)) for Tres Brazos. According to (Hotelling's T2, p < 0.05) test growth was significantly greater for females than for males. Based on the Chen test, von Bertalanffy growth curves were different among the study sites (RSS, p < 0.05). Based on the observed differences in growth parameters among sampling sites (coastal and riverine environments) future research need to be conducted on migration and population genetics, in order to delineate the stock structure of this population and support management programs.

Cooperation and age structure in spatial games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Wang, Zhen; Zhu, Xiaodan; Arenzon, Jeferson J.

2012-01-01

We study the evolution of cooperation in evolutionary spatial games when the payoff correlates with the increasing age of players (the level of correlation is set through a single parameter, α). The demographic heterogeneous age distribution, directly affecting the outcome of the game, is thus shown to be responsible for enhancing the cooperative behavior in the population. In particular, moderate values of α allow cooperators not only to survive but to outcompete defectors, even when the temptation to defect is large and the ageless, standard α=0 model does not sustain cooperation. The interplay between age structure and noise is also considered, and we obtain the conditions for optimal levels of cooperation.

OSO-8 X-ray spectra of clusters of galaxies. 2: Discussion. [hot intracluster gas structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, B. W.; Mushotzky, R. F.; Serlemitsos, P. J.

1978-01-01

X-ray spectral parameters obtained from 2 to 20 keV OSO-8 data on X-ray clusters and optical cluster properties were examined to obtain information for restricting models for hot intracluster gas structures. Topics discussed include the radius of the X-ray core in relation to the galaxy core radius, the viral mass of hotter clusters, and galaxy density and optical central cluster properties. A population of cool, dim X-ray clusters which have not been observed is predicted. The iron abundance determinations recently quoted for intracluster gas are uncertain by 50 to greater than 100 percent from this nonstatistical cause alone.

A model for a spatially structured metapopulation accounting for within patch dynamics.

PubMed

Smith, Andrew G; McVinish, Ross; Pollett, Philip K

2014-01-01

We develop a stochastic metapopulation model that accounts for spatial structure as well as within patch dynamics. Using a deterministic approximation derived from a functional law of large numbers, we develop conditions for extinction and persistence of the metapopulation in terms of the birth, death and migration parameters. Interestingly, we observe the Allee effect in a metapopulation comprising two patches of greatly different sizes, despite there being decreasing patch specific per-capita birth rates. We show that the Allee effect is due to the way the migration rates depend on the population density of the patches. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population structure of the African Clawed Frog (Xenopus laevis) in maize-growing areas with atrazine application versus non-maize-growing areas in South Africa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Du Preez, L.H.; Solomon, K.R.; Carr, J.A.; Giesy, J.P.; Gross, T.S.; Kendall, R.J.; Smith, E.E.; Van Der Kraak, G. L.; Weldon, C.

2005-01-01

The herbicide atrazine has been suggested to cause gonadal deformities in frogs and could possibly impact on reproduction. Since the early 1960s, atrazine has been used in large amounts in maize production areas of South Africa. These areas overlap with populations of the African Clawed Frog (Xenopus laevis) that has a wide distribution in southern Africa and is found in most water-bodies including those where atrazine residues are detected. The aim of this study was to compare various attributes of individual- and population-level responses of X. laevis from maize-growing and non-maize-growing areas. Xenopus laevis were studied in three reference and five maize-growing sites. Sex ratio, snout-vent length, body-mass and age profiles were found to be similar for populations in maize-growing and non-maize-growing areas. Our mark-recapture data indicated that all sites had robust populations. There were no significant relationships between exposure to atrazine and any of the parameters investigated in populations of X. laevis.

Genome-wide analysis of the diversity and ancestry of Korean dogs.

PubMed

Choi, Bong Hwan; Wijayananda, Hasini I; Lee, Soo Hyun; Lee, Doo Ho; Kim, Jong Seok; Oh, Seok Il; Park, Eung Woo; Lee, Cheul Koo; Lee, Seung Hwan

2017-01-01

There are various hypotheses on dog domestication based on archeological and genetic studies. Although many studies have been conducted on the origin of dogs, the existing literature about the ancestry, diversity, and population structure of Korean dogs is sparse. Therefore, this study is focused on the origin, diversity and population structure of Korean dogs. The study sample comprised four major categories, including non-dogs (coyotes and wolves), ancient, modern and Korean dogs. Selected samples were genotyped using an Illumina CanineHD array containing 173,662 single nucleotide polymorphisms. The genome-wide data were filtered using quality control parameters in PLINK 1.9. Only autosomal chromosomes were used for further analysis. The negative off-diagonal variance of the genetic relationship matrix analysis depicted, the variability of samples in each population. FIS (inbreeding rate within a population) values indicated, a low level of inbreeding within populations, and the patterns were in concordance with the results of Nei's genetic distance analysis. The lowest FST (inbreeding rate between populations) values among Korean and Chinese breeds, using a phylogenetic tree, multi-dimensional scaling, and a TreeMix likelihood tree showed Korean breeds are highly related to Chinese breeds. The Korean breeds possessed a unique and large diversity of admixtures compared with other breeds. The highest and lowest effective population sizes were observed in Korean Jindo Black (485) and Korean Donggyeong White (109), respectively. The historical effective population size of all Korean dogs showed declining trend from the past to present. It is important to take immediate action to protect the Korean dog population while conserving their diversity. Furthermore, this study suggests that Korean dogs have unique diversity and are one of the basal lineages of East Asian dogs, originating from China.

Genome-wide analysis of the diversity and ancestry of Korean dogs

PubMed Central

Lee, Doo Ho; Kim, Jong Seok; Oh, Seok Il; Park, Eung Woo; Lee, Cheul Koo; Lee, Seung Hwan

2017-01-01

There are various hypotheses on dog domestication based on archeological and genetic studies. Although many studies have been conducted on the origin of dogs, the existing literature about the ancestry, diversity, and population structure of Korean dogs is sparse. Therefore, this study is focused on the origin, diversity and population structure of Korean dogs. The study sample comprised four major categories, including non-dogs (coyotes and wolves), ancient, modern and Korean dogs. Selected samples were genotyped using an Illumina CanineHD array containing 173,662 single nucleotide polymorphisms. The genome-wide data were filtered using quality control parameters in PLINK 1.9. Only autosomal chromosomes were used for further analysis. The negative off-diagonal variance of the genetic relationship matrix analysis depicted, the variability of samples in each population. FIS (inbreeding rate within a population) values indicated, a low level of inbreeding within populations, and the patterns were in concordance with the results of Nei’s genetic distance analysis. The lowest FST (inbreeding rate between populations) values among Korean and Chinese breeds, using a phylogenetic tree, multi-dimensional scaling, and a TreeMix likelihood tree showed Korean breeds are highly related to Chinese breeds. The Korean breeds possessed a unique and large diversity of admixtures compared with other breeds. The highest and lowest effective population sizes were observed in Korean Jindo Black (485) and Korean Donggyeong White (109), respectively. The historical effective population size of all Korean dogs showed declining trend from the past to present. It is important to take immediate action to protect the Korean dog population while conserving their diversity. Furthermore, this study suggests that Korean dogs have unique diversity and are one of the basal lineages of East Asian dogs, originating from China. PMID:29182674

Accommodating environmental variation in population models: metaphysiological biomass loss accounting.

PubMed

Owen-Smith, Norman

2011-07-01

1. There is a pressing need for population models that can reliably predict responses to changing environmental conditions and diagnose the causes of variation in abundance in space as well as through time. In this 'how to' article, it is outlined how standard population models can be modified to accommodate environmental variation in a heuristically conducive way. This approach is based on metaphysiological modelling concepts linking populations within food web contexts and underlying behaviour governing resource selection. Using population biomass as the currency, population changes can be considered at fine temporal scales taking into account seasonal variation. Density feedbacks are generated through the seasonal depression of resources even in the absence of interference competition. 2. Examples described include (i) metaphysiological modifications of Lotka-Volterra equations for coupled consumer-resource dynamics, accommodating seasonal variation in resource quality as well as availability, resource-dependent mortality and additive predation, (ii) spatial variation in habitat suitability evident from the population abundance attained, taking into account resource heterogeneity and consumer choice using empirical data, (iii) accommodating population structure through the variable sensitivity of life-history stages to resource deficiencies, affecting susceptibility to oscillatory dynamics and (iv) expansion of density-dependent equations to accommodate various biomass losses reducing population growth rate below its potential, including reductions in reproductive outputs. Supporting computational code and parameter values are provided. 3. The essential features of metaphysiological population models include (i) the biomass currency enabling within-year dynamics to be represented appropriately, (ii) distinguishing various processes reducing population growth below its potential, (iii) structural consistency in the representation of interacting populations and (iv) capacity to accommodate environmental variation in space as well as through time. Biomass dynamics provide a common currency linking behavioural, population and food web ecology. 4. Metaphysiological biomass loss accounting provides a conceptual framework more conducive for projecting and interpreting the population consequences of climatic shifts and human transformations of habitats than standard modelling approaches. © 2011 The Author. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2011 British Ecological Society.

Genetic drift and rapid evolution of viviparity in insular fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra)

PubMed Central

Velo-Antón, G; Zamudio, K R; Cordero-Rivera, A

2012-01-01

Continental islands offer an excellent opportunity to investigate adaptive processes and to time microevolutionary changes that precede macroevolutionary events. We performed a population genetic study of the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra), a species that displays unique intraspecific diversity of reproductive strategies, to address the microevolutionary processes leading to phenotypic and genetic differentiation of island, coastal and interior populations. We used eight microsatellite markers to estimate genetic diversity, population structure and demographic parameters in viviparous insular populations and ovoviviparous coastal and interior populations. Our results show considerable genetic differentiation (FST range: 0.06–0.27), and no clear signs of gene flow among populations, except between the large and admixed interior populations. We find no support for island colonization by rafting or intentional/accidental anthropogenic introductions, indicating that rising sea levels were responsible for isolation of the island populations approximately 9000 years ago. Our study provides evidence of rapid genetic differentiation between island and coastal populations, and rapid evolution of viviparity driven by climatic selective pressures on island populations, geographic isolation with genetic drift, or a combination of these factors. Studies of these viviparous island populations in early stages of divergence help us better understand the microevolutionary processes involved in rapid phenotypic shifts. PMID:22086081

Genetic drift and rapid evolution of viviparity in insular fire salamanders (Salamandra salamandra).

PubMed

Velo-Antón, G; Zamudio, K R; Cordero-Rivera, A

2012-04-01

Continental islands offer an excellent opportunity to investigate adaptive processes and to time microevolutionary changes that precede macroevolutionary events. We performed a population genetic study of the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra), a species that displays unique intraspecific diversity of reproductive strategies, to address the microevolutionary processes leading to phenotypic and genetic differentiation of island, coastal and interior populations. We used eight microsatellite markers to estimate genetic diversity, population structure and demographic parameters in viviparous insular populations and ovoviviparous coastal and interior populations. Our results show considerable genetic differentiation (F(ST) range: 0.06-0.27), and no clear signs of gene flow among populations, except between the large and admixed interior populations. We find no support for island colonization by rafting or intentional/accidental anthropogenic introductions, indicating that rising sea levels were responsible for isolation of the island populations approximately 9000 years ago. Our study provides evidence of rapid genetic differentiation between island and coastal populations, and rapid evolution of viviparity driven by climatic selective pressures on island populations, geographic isolation with genetic drift, or a combination of these factors. Studies of these viviparous island populations in early stages of divergence help us better understand the microevolutionary processes involved in rapid phenotypic shifts.

A Multiphase Model for the Intracluster Medium

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nagai, Daisuke; Sulkanen, Martin E.; Evrard, August E.

1999-01-01

Constraints on the clustered mass density of the universe derived from the observed population mean intracluster gas fraction of x-ray clusters may be biased by reliance on a single-phase assumption for the thermodynamic structure of the intracluster medium (ICM). We propose a descriptive model for multiphase structure in which a spherically symmetric ICM contains isobaric density perturbations with a radially dependent variance. Fixing the x-ray emission and emission weighted temperature, we explore two independently observable signatures of the model in the parameter space. For bremsstrahlung dominated emission, the central Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) decrement in the multiphase case is increased over the single-phase case and multiphase x-ray spectra in the range 0.1-20 keV are flatter in the continuum and exhibit stronger low energy emission lines than their single-phase counterpart. We quantify these effects for a fiducial 10e8 K cluster and demonstrate how the combination of SZ and x-ray spectroscopy can be used to identify a preferred location in the plane of the model parameter space. From these parameters the correct value of mean intracluster gas fraction in the multiphase model results, allowing an unbiased estimate of clustered mass density to he recovered.

Prediction of pKa Values for Neutral and Basic Drugs based on Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Methods.

PubMed

Li, Mengshan; Zhang, Huaijing; Chen, Bingsheng; Wu, Yan; Guan, Lixin

2018-03-05

The pKa value of drugs is an important parameter in drug design and pharmacology. In this paper, an improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm was proposed based on the population entropy diversity. In the improved algorithm, when the population entropy was higher than the set maximum threshold, the convergence strategy was adopted; when the population entropy was lower than the set minimum threshold the divergence strategy was adopted; when the population entropy was between the maximum and minimum threshold, the self-adaptive adjustment strategy was maintained. The improved PSO algorithm was applied in the training of radial basis function artificial neural network (RBF ANN) model and the selection of molecular descriptors. A quantitative structure-activity relationship model based on RBF ANN trained by the improved PSO algorithm was proposed to predict the pKa values of 74 kinds of neutral and basic drugs and then validated by another database containing 20 molecules. The validation results showed that the model had a good prediction performance. The absolute average relative error, root mean square error, and squared correlation coefficient were 0.3105, 0.0411, and 0.9685, respectively. The model can be used as a reference for exploring other quantitative structure-activity relationships.

Allee’s dynamics and bifurcation structures in von Bertalanffy’s population size functions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonel Rocha, J.; Taha, Abdel-Kaddous; Fournier-Prunaret, D.

2018-03-01

The interest and the relevance of the study of the population dynamics and the extinction phenomenon are our main motivation to investigate the induction of Allee Effect in von Bertalanffy’s population size functions. The adjustment or correction factor of rational type introduced allows us to analyze simultaneously strong and weak Allee’s functions and functions with no Allee effect, whose classification is dependent on the stability of the fixed point x = 0. This classification is founded on the concepts of strong and weak Allee’s effects to the population growth rates associated. The transition from strong Allee effect to no Allee effect, passing through the weak Allee effect, is verified with the evolution of the rarefaction critical density or Allee’s limit. The existence of cusp points on a fold bifurcation curve is related to this phenomenon of transition on Allee’s dynamics. Moreover, the “foliated” structure of the parameter plane considered is also explained, with respect to the evolution of the Allee limit. The bifurcation analysis is based on the configurations of fold and flip bifurcation curves. The chaotic semistability and the nonadmissibility bifurcation curves are proposed to this family of 1D maps, which allow us to define and characterize the corresponding Allee effect region.

Speciation, population structure, and demographic history of the Mojave Fringe-toed Lizard (Uma scoparia), a species of conservation concern

PubMed Central

Gottscho, Andrew D; Marks, Sharyn B; Jennings, W Bryan

2014-01-01

The North American deserts were impacted by both Neogene plate tectonics and Quaternary climatic fluctuations, yet it remains unclear how these events influenced speciation in this region. We tested published hypotheses regarding the timing and mode of speciation, population structure, and demographic history of the Mojave Fringe-toed Lizard (Uma scoparia), a sand dune specialist endemic to the Mojave Desert of California and Arizona. We sampled 109 individual lizards representing 22 insular dune localities, obtained DNA sequences for 14 nuclear loci, and found that U. scoparia has low genetic diversity relative to the U. notata species complex, comparable to that of chimpanzees and southern elephant seals. Analyses of genotypes using Bayesian clustering algorithms did not identify discrete populations within U. scoparia. Using isolation-with-migration (IM) models and a novel coalescent-based hypothesis testing approach, we estimated that U. scoparia diverged from U. notata in the Pleistocene epoch. The likelihood ratio test and the Akaike Information Criterion consistently rejected nested speciation models that included parameters for migration and population growth of U. scoparia. We reject the Neogene vicariance hypothesis for the speciation of U. scoparia and define this species as a single evolutionarily significant unit for conservation purposes. PMID:25360285

Species composition and dietary relationships in a brackish shallow water fish assemblage in the Bothnian Sea, Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thorman, Staffan; Wiederholm, Anne-Marie

1984-09-01

A nearshore fish assemblage inhabiting a shallow bay in the southern Bothnian Sea, Sweden, with demanding environmental conditions (c. 5‰; >15°C during 4 months 1980 and 1 month 1981) was studied during a two-year period, in 1980 and 1981. Seasonal distribution patterns, dietary relationships, and growth rates were studied in Pungitius pungitius (L.), Pomatoschistus minutus (Pallas.), Gasterosteus aculeatus (L.), Phoxinus phoxinus (L.), Pomatoschistus microps (Krøyer) and Gobius niger L. The structure of the juvenile populations changed both over seasons and years but the adult populations remained constant. Lower water temperature, fewer individuals, lower and delayed fish growth, and lower interspecific food overlaps were found in 1981 compared to 1980. Few significant correlations were found in both years between the following community parameters: diversity, niche width, food overlap, and the proportion of each species in the fish assemblage. According to these results it is suggested that food competition and resource partitioning were of minor importance for the structuring of the fish community in the present area. Rather, the extreme salinity and the fluctuations in temperature regulated the fish populations. One may conclude that the populations of juveniles were more influenced by short-term changes in the environment than those of the adults.

Seabed roughness parameters from joint backscatter and reflection inversion at the Malta Plateau.

PubMed

Steininger, Gavin; Holland, Charles W; Dosso, Stan E; Dettmer, Jan

2013-09-01

This paper presents estimates of seabed roughness and geoacoustic parameters and uncertainties on the Malta Plateau, Mediterranean Sea, by joint Bayesian inversion of mono-static backscatter and spherical wave reflection-coefficient data. The data are modeled using homogeneous fluid sediment layers overlying an elastic basement. The scattering model assumes a randomly rough water-sediment interface with a von Karman roughness power spectrum. Scattering and reflection data are inverted simultaneously using a population of interacting Markov chains to sample roughness and geoacoustic parameters as well as residual error parameters. Trans-dimensional sampling is applied to treat the number of sediment layers and the order (zeroth or first) of an autoregressive error model (to represent potential residual correlation) as unknowns. Results are considered in terms of marginal posterior probability profiles and distributions, which quantify the effective data information content to resolve scattering/geoacoustic structure. Results indicate well-defined scattering (roughness) parameters in good agreement with existing measurements, and a multi-layer sediment profile over a high-speed (elastic) basement, consistent with independent knowledge of sand layers over limestone.

Modeling Far-UV Fluorescent Emission Features of Warm Molecular Hydrogen in the Inner Regions of Protoplanetary Disks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoadley, Keri; France, Kevin

2015-01-01

Probing the surviving molecular gas within the inner regions of protoplanetary disks (PPDs) around T Tauri stars (1 - 10 Myr) provides insight into the conditions in which planet formation and migration occurs while the gas disk is still present. We model observed far ultraviolet (FUV) molecular hydrogen (H₂) fluorescent emission lines that originate within the inner regions (< 10 AU) of 9 well-studied Classic T Tauri stars, using the Hubble Space Telescope Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS), to explore the physical structure of the molecular disk at different PPD dust evolutionary stages. We created a 2D radiative transfer model that estimates the density and temperature distributions of warm, inner radial H₂ (T > 1500 K) with a set of 6 free parameters and produces a data cube of expected emission line profiles that describe the physical structure of the inner molecular disk atmosphere. By comparing the modeled emission lines with COS H₂ fluorescence emission features, we estimate the physical structure of the molecular disk atmosphere for each target with the set of free parameters that best replicate the observed lines. First results suggest that, for all dust evolutionary stages of disks considered, ground-state H₂ populations are described by a roughly constant temperature T(H₂) = 2500 +/- 1000 K. Possible evolution of the density structure of the H₂ atmosphere between intact and depleting dust disks may be distinguishable, but large errors in the inferred best-fit parameter sets prevent us from making this conclusion. Further improvements to the modeling framework and statistical comparison in determining the best-fit model-to-data parameter sets are ongoing, beginning with improvements to the radiative transfer model and use of up-to-date HI Lyman α absorption optical depths (see McJunkin in posters) to better estimate disk structural parameters. Once improvements are implemented, we will investigate the possible presence of a molecular wind component in the observed H₂ fluorescence features by determining blue-shifted flux residuals in the data after best-fit model-to-data comparisons are complete.

Phylogenetic comparative analysis of electric communication signals in ghost knifefishes (Gymnotiformes: Apteronotidae).

PubMed

Turner, Cameron R; Derylo, Maksymilian; de Santana, C David; Alves-Gomes, José A; Smith, G Troy

2007-12-01

Electrocommunication signals in electric fish are diverse, easily recorded and have well-characterized neural control. Two signal features, the frequency and waveform of the electric organ discharge (EOD), vary widely across species. Modulations of the EOD (i.e. chirps and gradual frequency rises) also function as active communication signals during social interactions, but they have been studied in relatively few species. We compared the electrocommunication signals of 13 species in the largest gymnotiform family, Apteronotidae. Playback stimuli were used to elicit chirps and rises. We analyzed EOD frequency and waveform and the production and structure of chirps and rises. Species diversity in these signals was characterized with discriminant function analyses, and correlations between signal parameters were tested with phylogenetic comparative methods. Signals varied markedly across species and even between congeners and populations of the same species. Chirps and EODs were particularly evolutionarily labile, whereas rises differed little across species. Although all chirp parameters contributed to species differences in these signals, chirp amplitude modulation, frequency modulation (FM) and duration were particularly diverse. Within this diversity, however, interspecific correlations between chirp parameters suggest that mechanistic trade-offs may shape some aspects of signal evolution. In particular, a consistent trade-off between FM and EOD amplitude during chirps is likely to have influenced the evolution of chirp structure. These patterns suggest that functional or mechanistic linkages between signal parameters (e.g. the inability of electromotor neurons increase their firing rates without a loss of synchrony or amplitude of action potentials) constrain the evolution of signal structure.

STRUCTURAL PARAMETERS FOR 10 HALO GLOBULAR CLUSTERS IN M33

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma, Jun, E-mail: majun@nao.cas.cn

2015-05-15

In this paper, we present the properties of 10 halo globular clusters (GCs) with luminosities L ≃ 5–7 × 10{sup 5} L{sub ⊙} in the Local Group galaxy M33 using images from the Hubble Space Telescope WFPC2 in the F555W and F814W bands. We obtained the ellipticities, position angles, and surface brightness profiles for each GC. In general, the ellipticities of the M33 sample clusters are similar to those of the M31 clusters. The structural and dynamical parameters are derived by fitting the profiles to three different models combined with mass-to-light ratios (M/L values) from population-synthesis models. The structural parametersmore » include core radii, concentration, half-light radii, and central surface brightness. The dynamical parameters include the integrated cluster mass, integrated binding energy, central surface mass density, and predicted line of sight velocity dispersion at the cluster center. The velocity dispersions of the four clusters predicted here agree well with the observed dispersions by Larsen et al. The results here showed that the majority of the sample halo GCs are better fitted by both the King model and the Wilson model than the Sérsic model. In general, the properties of the clusters in M33, M31, and the Milky Way fall in the same regions of parameter spaces. The tight correlations of cluster properties indicate a “fundamental plane” for clusters, which reflects some universal physical conditions and processes operating at the epoch of cluster formation.« less

Refining Reproductive Parameters for Modelling Sustainability and Extinction in Hunted Primate Populations in the Amazon

PubMed Central

Bowler, Mark; Anderson, Matt; Montes, Daniel; Pérez, Pedro; Mayor, Pedro

2014-01-01

Primates are frequently hunted in Amazonia. Assessing the sustainability of hunting is essential to conservation planning. The most-used sustainability model, the ‘Production Model’, and more recent spatial models, rely on basic reproductive parameters for accuracy. These parameters are often crudely estimated. To date, parameters used for the Amazon’s most-hunted primate, the woolly monkey (Lagothrix spp.), come from captive populations in the 1960s, when captive births were rare. Furthermore, woolly monkeys have since been split into five species. We provide reproductive parameters calculated by examining the reproductive organs of female Poeppig’s woolly monkeys (Lagothrix poeppigii), collected by hunters as part of their normal subsistence activity. Production was 0.48–0.54 young per female per year, and an interbirth interval of 22.3 to 25.2 months, similar to parameters from captive populations. However, breeding was seasonal, which imposes limits on the maximum reproductive rate attainable. We recommend the use of spatial models over the Production Model, since they are less sensitive to error in estimated reproductive rates. Further refinements to reproductive parameters are needed for most primate taxa. Methods like ours verify the suitability of captive reproductive rates for sustainability analysis and population modelling for populations under differing conditions of hunting pressure and seasonality. Without such research, population modelling is based largely on guesswork. PMID:24714614

Parsing Social Network Survey Data from Hidden Populations Using Stochastic Context-Free Grammars

PubMed Central

Poon, Art F. Y.; Brouwer, Kimberly C.; Strathdee, Steffanie A.; Firestone-Cruz, Michelle; Lozada, Remedios M.; Kosakovsky Pond, Sergei L.; Heckathorn, Douglas D.; Frost, Simon D. W.

2009-01-01

Background Human populations are structured by social networks, in which individuals tend to form relationships based on shared attributes. Certain attributes that are ambiguous, stigmatized or illegal can create a ÔhiddenÕ population, so-called because its members are difficult to identify. Many hidden populations are also at an elevated risk of exposure to infectious diseases. Consequently, public health agencies are presently adopting modern survey techniques that traverse social networks in hidden populations by soliciting individuals to recruit their peers, e.g., respondent-driven sampling (RDS). The concomitant accumulation of network-based epidemiological data, however, is rapidly outpacing the development of computational methods for analysis. Moreover, current analytical models rely on unrealistic assumptions, e.g., that the traversal of social networks can be modeled by a Markov chain rather than a branching process. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we develop a new methodology based on stochastic context-free grammars (SCFGs), which are well-suited to modeling tree-like structure of the RDS recruitment process. We apply this methodology to an RDS case study of injection drug users (IDUs) in Tijuana, México, a hidden population at high risk of blood-borne and sexually-transmitted infections (i.e., HIV, hepatitis C virus, syphilis). Survey data were encoded as text strings that were parsed using our custom implementation of the inside-outside algorithm in a publicly-available software package (HyPhy), which uses either expectation maximization or direct optimization methods and permits constraints on model parameters for hypothesis testing. We identified significant latent variability in the recruitment process that violates assumptions of Markov chain-based methods for RDS analysis: firstly, IDUs tended to emulate the recruitment behavior of their own recruiter; and secondly, the recruitment of like peers (homophily) was dependent on the number of recruits. Conclusions SCFGs provide a rich probabilistic language that can articulate complex latent structure in survey data derived from the traversal of social networks. Such structure that has no representation in Markov chain-based models can interfere with the estimation of the composition of hidden populations if left unaccounted for, raising critical implications for the prevention and control of infectious disease epidemics. PMID:19738904

The ecology of an adaptive radiation of three-spined stickleback from North Uist, Scotland.

PubMed

Magalhaes, Isabel S; D'Agostino, Daniele; Hohenlohe, Paul A; MacColl, Andrew D C

2016-09-01

There has been a large focus on the genetics of traits involved in adaptation, but knowledge of the environmental variables leading to adaptive changes is surprisingly poor. Combined use of environmental data with morphological and genomic data should allow us to understand the extent to which patterns of phenotypic and genetic diversity within a species can be explained by the structure of the environment. Here, we analyse the variation of populations of three-spined stickleback from 27 freshwater lakes on North Uist, Scotland, that vary greatly in their environment, to understand how environmental and genetic constraints contribute to phenotypic divergence. We collected 35 individuals per population and 30 abiotic and biotic environmental parameters to characterize variation across lakes and analyse phenotype-environment associations. Additionally, we used RAD sequencing to estimate the genetic relationships among a subset of these populations. We found a large amount of phenotypic variation among populations, most prominently in armour and spine traits. Despite large variation in the abiotic environment, namely in ion composition, depth and dissolved organic Carbon, more phenotypic variation was explained by the biotic variables (presence of predators and density of predator and competitors), than by associated abiotic variables. Genetic structure among populations was partly geographic, with closer populations being more similar. Altogether, our results suggest that differences in body shape among stickleback populations are the result of both canalized genetic and plastic responses to environmental factors, which shape fish morphology in a predictable direction regardless of their genetic starting point. © 2016 The Authors. Molecular Ecology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Positive correlation between genetic diversity and fitness in a large, well-connected metapopulation

PubMed Central

Vandewoestijne, Sofie; Schtickzelle, Nicolas; Baguette, Michel

2008-01-01

Background Theory predicts that lower dispersal, and associated gene flow, leads to decreased genetic diversity in small isolated populations, which generates adverse consequences for fitness, and subsequently for demography. Here we report for the first time this effect in a well-connected natural butterfly metapopulation with high population densities at the edge of its distribution range. Results We demonstrate that: (1) lower genetic diversity was coupled to a sharp decrease in adult lifetime expectancy, a key component of individual fitness; (2) genetic diversity was positively correlated to the number of dispersing individuals (indicative of landscape functional connectivity) and adult population size; (3) parameters inferred from capture-recapture procedures (population size and dispersal events between patches) correlated much better with genetic diversity than estimates usually used as surrogates for population size (patch area and descriptors of habitat quality) and dispersal (structural connectivity index). Conclusion Our results suggest that dispersal is a very important factor maintaining genetic diversity. Even at a very local spatial scale in a metapopulation consisting of large high-density populations interconnected by considerable dispersal rates, genetic diversity can be decreased and directly affect the fitness of individuals. From a biodiversity conservation perspective, this study clearly shows the benefits of both in-depth demographic and genetic analyses. Accordingly, to ensure the long-term survival of populations, conservation actions should not be blindly based on patch area and structural isolation. This result may be especially pertinent for species at their range margins, particularly in this era of rapid environmental change. PMID:18986515

Estimating demographic contributions to effective population size in an age-structured wild population experiencing environmental and demographic stochasticity.

PubMed

Trask, Amanda E; Bignal, Eric M; McCracken, Davy I; Piertney, Stuart B; Reid, Jane M

2017-09-01

A population's effective size (N e ) is a key parameter that shapes rates of inbreeding and loss of genetic diversity, thereby influencing evolutionary processes and population viability. However, estimating N e , and identifying key demographic mechanisms that underlie the N e to census population size (N) ratio, remains challenging, especially for small populations with overlapping generations and substantial environmental and demographic stochasticity and hence dynamic age-structure. A sophisticated demographic method of estimating N e /N, which uses Fisher's reproductive value to account for dynamic age-structure, has been formulated. However, this method requires detailed individual- and population-level data on sex- and age-specific reproduction and survival, and has rarely been implemented. Here, we use the reproductive value method and detailed demographic data to estimate N e /N for a small and apparently isolated red-billed chough (Pyrrhocorax pyrrhocorax) population of high conservation concern. We additionally calculated two single-sample molecular genetic estimates of N e to corroborate the demographic estimate and examine evidence for unobserved immigration and gene flow. The demographic estimate of N e /N was 0.21, reflecting a high total demographic variance (σ2dg) of 0.71. Females and males made similar overall contributions to σ2dg. However, contributions varied among sex-age classes, with greater contributions from 3 year-old females than males, but greater contributions from ≥5 year-old males than females. The demographic estimate of N e was ~30, suggesting that rates of increase of inbreeding and loss of genetic variation per generation will be relatively high. Molecular genetic estimates of N e computed from linkage disequilibrium and approximate Bayesian computation were approximately 50 and 30, respectively, providing no evidence of substantial unobserved immigration which could bias demographic estimates of N e . Our analyses identify key sex-age classes contributing to demographic variance and thus decreasing N e /N in a small age-structured population inhabiting a variable environment. They thereby demonstrate how assessments of N e can incorporate stochastic sex- and age-specific demography and elucidate key demographic processes affecting a population's evolutionary trajectory and viability. Furthermore, our analyses show that N e for the focal chough population is critically small, implying that management to re-establish genetic connectivity may be required to ensure population viability. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Competition in size-structured populations: mechanisms inducing cohort formation and population cycles.

PubMed

de Roos, André M; Persson, Lennart

2003-02-01

In this paper we investigate the consequences of size-dependent competition among the individuals of a consumer population by analyzing the dynamic properties of a physiologically structured population model. Only 2 size-classes of individuals are distinguished: juveniles and adults. Juveniles and adults both feed on one and the same resource and hence interact by means of exploitative competition. Juvenile individuals allocate all assimilated energy into development and mature on reaching a fixed developmental threshold. The combination of this fixed threshold and the resource-dependent developmental rate, implies that the juvenile delay between birth and the onset of reproduction may vary in time. Adult individuals allocate all assimilated energy to reproduction. Mortality of both juveniles and adults is assumed to be inversely proportional to the amount of energy assimilated. In this setting we study how the dynamics of the population are influenced by the relative foraging capabilities of juveniles and adults. In line with results that we previously obtained in size-structured consumer-resource models with pulsed reproduction, population cycles primarily occur when either juveniles or adults have a distinct competitive advantage. When adults have a larger per capita feeding rate and are hence competitively superior to juveniles, population oscillations occur that are primarily induced by the fact that the duration of the juvenile period changes with changing food conditions. These cycles do not occur when the juvenile delay is a fixed parameter. When juveniles are competitively superior, two different types of population fluctuations can occur: (1) rapid, low-amplitude fluctuations having a period of half the juvenile delay and (2) slow, large-amplitude fluctuations characterized by a period, which is roughly equal to the juvenile delay. The analysis of simplified versions of the structured model indicates that these two types of oscillations also occur if mortality and/or development is independent of food density, i.e. in a situation with a constant juvenile developmental delay and a constant, food-independent background mortality. Thus, the oscillations that occur when juveniles are more competitive are induced by the juvenile delay per se. When juveniles exert a larger foraging pressure on the shared resource, maturation implies an increase not only in adult density, but also in food density and consequently fecundity. Our analysis suggests that this correlation in time between adult density and fecundity is crucial for the occurrence of population cycles when juveniles are competitively superior.

Plausible combinations: An improved method to evaluate the covariate structure of Cormack-Jolly-Seber mark-recapture models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bromaghin, Jeffrey F.; McDonald, Trent L.; Amstrup, Steven C.

2013-01-01

Mark-recapture models are extensively used in quantitative population ecology, providing estimates of population vital rates, such as survival, that are difficult to obtain using other methods. Vital rates are commonly modeled as functions of explanatory covariates, adding considerable flexibility to mark-recapture models, but also increasing the subjectivity and complexity of the modeling process. Consequently, model selection and the evaluation of covariate structure remain critical aspects of mark-recapture modeling. The difficulties involved in model selection are compounded in Cormack-Jolly- Seber models because they are composed of separate sub-models for survival and recapture probabilities, which are conceptualized independently even though their parameters are not statistically independent. The construction of models as combinations of sub-models, together with multiple potential covariates, can lead to a large model set. Although desirable, estimation of the parameters of all models may not be feasible. Strategies to search a model space and base inference on a subset of all models exist and enjoy widespread use. However, even though the methods used to search a model space can be expected to influence parameter estimation, the assessment of covariate importance, and therefore the ecological interpretation of the modeling results, the performance of these strategies has received limited investigation. We present a new strategy for searching the space of a candidate set of Cormack-Jolly-Seber models and explore its performance relative to existing strategies using computer simulation. The new strategy provides an improved assessment of the importance of covariates and covariate combinations used to model survival and recapture probabilities, while requiring only a modest increase in the number of models on which inference is based in comparison to existing techniques.

Age and gender specific biokinetic model for strontium in humans

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shagina, N. B.; Tolstykh, E. I.; Degteva, M. O.

A biokinetic model for strontium in humans is necessary for quantification of internal doses due to strontium radioisotopes. The ICRP-recommended biokinetic model for strontium has limitation for use in a population study, because it is not gender specific and does not cover all age ranges. The extensive Techa River data set on 90Sr in humans (tens of thousands of measurements) is a unique source of data on long-term strontium retention for men and women of all ages at intake. These, as well as published data, were used for evaluation of age- and gender-specific parameters for a new compartment biokinetic modelmore » for strontium (Sr-AGe model). The Sr-AGe model has similar structure as the ICRP model for the alkaline earth elements. The following parameters were mainly reevaluated: gastro-intestinal absorption and parameters related to the processes of bone formation and resorption defining calcium and strontium transfers in skeletal compartments. The Sr-AGe model satisfactorily describes available data sets on strontium retention for different kinds of intake (dietary and intravenous) at different ages (0–80 years old) and demonstrates good agreement with data sets for different ethnic groups. The Sr-AGe model can be used for dose assessment in epidemiological studies of general population exposed to ingested strontium radioisotopes.« less

Spatial and temporal variability in growth of southern flounder (Paralichthys lethostigma)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Midway, Stephen R.; Wagner, Tyler; Arnott, Stephen A.; Biondo, Patrick; Martinez-Andrade, Fernando; Wadsworth, Thomas F.

2015-01-01

Delineation of stock structure is important for understanding the ecology and management of many fish populations, particularly those with wide-ranging distributions and high levels of harvest. Southern flounder (Paralichthys lethostigma) is a popular commercial and recreational species along the southeast Atlantic coast and Gulf of Mexico, USA. Recent studies have provided genetic and otolith morphology evidence that the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean stocks differ. Using age and growth data from four states (Texas, Alabama, South Carolina, and North Carolina) we expanded upon the traditional von Bertalanffy model in order to compare growth rates of putative geographic stocks of southern flounder. We improved the model fitting process by adding a hierarchical Bayesian framework to allow each parameter to vary spatially or temporally as a random effect, as well as log transforming the three model parameters (L∞, K, andt0). Multiple comparisons of parameters showed that growth rates varied (even within states) for females, but less for males. Growth rates were also consistent through time, when long-term data were available. Since within-basin populations are thought to be genetically well-mixed, our results suggest that consistent small-scale environmental conditions (i.e., within estuaries) likely drive growth rates and should be considered when developing broader scale management plans.

Estimating Allee dynamics before they can be observed: polar bears as a case study.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Lewis, Mark A; Derocher, Andrew E

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species.

Estimating Allee Dynamics before They Can Be Observed: Polar Bears as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Lewis, Mark A.; Derocher, Andrew E.

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species. PMID:24427306

The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic drivers to population growth vary among local populations of Greater Sage-Grouse: An integrated population modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Halstead, Brian J.; Casazza, Michael L.; Blomberg, Erik J.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Wiechman, Lief; Tebbenkamp, Joel; Gardner, Scott C.; Reese, Kerry P.

2018-01-01

Consideration of ecological scale is fundamental to understanding and managing avian population growth and decline. Empirically driven models for population dynamics and demographic processes across multiple spatial scales can be powerful tools to help guide conservation actions. Integrated population models (IPMs) provide a framework for better parameter estimation by unifying multiple sources of data (e.g., count and demographic data). Hierarchical structure within such models that include random effects allow for varying degrees of data sharing across different spatiotemporal scales. We developed an IPM to investigate Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) on the border of California and Nevada, known as the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment. Our analysis integrated 13 years of lek count data (n > 2,000) and intensive telemetry (VHF and GPS; n > 350 individuals) data across 6 subpopulations. Specifically, we identified the most parsimonious models among varying random effects and density-dependent terms for each population vital rate (e.g., nest survival). Using a joint likelihood process, we integrated the lek count data with the demographic models to estimate apparent abundance and refine vital rate parameter estimates. To investigate effects of climatic conditions, we extended the model to fit a precipitation covariate for instantaneous rate of change (r). At a metapopulation extent (i.e. Bi-State), annual population rate of change λ (er) did not favor an overall increasing or decreasing trend through the time series. However, annual changes in λ were driven by changes in precipitation (one-year lag effect). At subpopulation extents, we identified substantial variation in λ and demographic rates. One subpopulation clearly decoupled from the trend at the metapopulation extent and exhibited relatively high risk of extinction as a result of low egg fertility. These findings can inform localized, targeted management actions for specific areas, and status of the species for the larger Bi-State.

Stochastic dynamics and logistic population growth

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Méndez, Vicenç; Assaf, Michael; Campos, Daniel; Horsthemke, Werner

2015-06-01

The Verhulst model is probably the best known macroscopic rate equation in population ecology. It depends on two parameters, the intrinsic growth rate and the carrying capacity. These parameters can be estimated for different populations and are related to the reproductive fitness and the competition for limited resources, respectively. We investigate analytically and numerically the simplest possible microscopic scenarios that give rise to the logistic equation in the deterministic mean-field limit. We provide a definition of the two parameters of the Verhulst equation in terms of microscopic parameters. In addition, we derive the conditions for extinction or persistence of the population by employing either the momentum-space spectral theory or the real-space Wentzel-Kramers-Brillouin approximation to determine the probability distribution function and the mean time to extinction of the population. Our analytical results agree well with numerical simulations.

A Cryptic Species of the Tylonycteris pachypus Complex (Chiroptera: Vespertilionidae) and Its Population Genetic Structure in Southern China and nearby Regions

PubMed Central

HUANG, Chujing; YU, Wenhua; XU, Zhongxian; QIU, Yuanxiong; CHEN, Miao; QIU, Bing; MOTOKAWA, Masaharu; HARADA, Masashi; LI, Yuchun; WU, Yi

2014-01-01

Three distinct bamboo bat species (Tylonycteris) are known to inhabit tropical and subtropical areas of Asia, i.e., T. pachypus, T. robustula, and T. pygmaeus. This study performed karyotypic examinations of 4 specimens from southern Chinese T. p. fulvidus populations and one specimen from Thai T. p. fulvidus population, which detected distinct karyotypes (2n=30) compared with previous karyotypic descriptions of T. p. pachypus (2n=46) and T. robustula (2n=32) from Malaysia. This finding suggested a cryptic Tylonycteris species within T. pachypus complex in China and Thailand. Morphometric studies indicated the difficulty in distinguishing the cryptic species and T. p. pachypus from Indonesia apart from the external measurements, which might be the reason for their historical misidentification. Based on 623 bp mtDNA COI segments, a phylogeographic examination including T. pachypus individuals from China and nearby regions, i.e., Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia, was conducted to examine the population genetic structure. Genealogical and phylogeographical results indicated that at least two diverged lineages existed in these regions (average 3.4 % of Kimura 2-parameter distances) and their population structure did not match the geographic pattern. These results suggested that at least two historical colonizations have occurred by the cryptic species. Furthermore, through integration of traditional and geometric morphological results, morphological differences on zygomatic arches, toothrows and bullae were detected between two lineages in China. Given the similarity of vegetation and climate of Guangdong and Guangxi regions, we suggested that such differences might be derived from their historical adaptation or distinct evolutionary history rather than the differences of habitats they occurred currently. PMID:24550688

SNPs in stress-responsive rice genes: validation, genotyping, functional relevance and population structure

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) validation and large-scale genotyping are required to maximize the use of DNA sequence variation and determine the functional relevance of candidate genes for complex stress tolerance traits through genetic association in rice. We used the bead array platform-based Illumina GoldenGate assay to validate and genotype SNPs in a select set of stress-responsive genes to understand their functional relevance and study the population structure in rice. Results Of the 384 putative SNPs assayed, we successfully validated and genotyped 362 (94.3%). Of these 325 (84.6%) showed polymorphism among the 91 rice genotypes examined. Physical distribution, degree of allele sharing, admixtures and introgression, and amino acid replacement of SNPs in 263 abiotic and 62 biotic stress-responsive genes provided clues for identification and targeted mapping of trait-associated genomic regions. We assessed the functional and adaptive significance of validated SNPs in a set of contrasting drought tolerant upland and sensitive lowland rice genotypes by correlating their allelic variation with amino acid sequence alterations in catalytic domains and three-dimensional secondary protein structure encoded by stress-responsive genes. We found a strong genetic association among SNPs in the nine stress-responsive genes with upland and lowland ecological adaptation. Higher nucleotide diversity was observed in indica accessions compared with other rice sub-populations based on different population genetic parameters. The inferred ancestry of 16% among rice genotypes was derived from admixed populations with the maximum between upland aus and wild Oryza species. Conclusions SNPs validated in biotic and abiotic stress-responsive rice genes can be used in association analyses to identify candidate genes and develop functional markers for stress tolerance in rice. PMID:22921105

Analysis of energy-based algorithms for RNA secondary structure prediction

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background RNA molecules play critical roles in the cells of organisms, including roles in gene regulation, catalysis, and synthesis of proteins. Since RNA function depends in large part on its folded structures, much effort has been invested in developing accurate methods for prediction of RNA secondary structure from the base sequence. Minimum free energy (MFE) predictions are widely used, based on nearest neighbor thermodynamic parameters of Mathews, Turner et al. or those of Andronescu et al. Some recently proposed alternatives that leverage partition function calculations find the structure with maximum expected accuracy (MEA) or pseudo-expected accuracy (pseudo-MEA) methods. Advances in prediction methods are typically benchmarked using sensitivity, positive predictive value and their harmonic mean, namely F-measure, on datasets of known reference structures. Since such benchmarks document progress in improving accuracy of computational prediction methods, it is important to understand how measures of accuracy vary as a function of the reference datasets and whether advances in algorithms or thermodynamic parameters yield statistically significant improvements. Our work advances such understanding for the MFE and (pseudo-)MEA-based methods, with respect to the latest datasets and energy parameters. Results We present three main findings. First, using the bootstrap percentile method, we show that the average F-measure accuracy of the MFE and (pseudo-)MEA-based algorithms, as measured on our largest datasets with over 2000 RNAs from diverse families, is a reliable estimate (within a 2% range with high confidence) of the accuracy of a population of RNA molecules represented by this set. However, average accuracy on smaller classes of RNAs such as a class of 89 Group I introns used previously in benchmarking algorithm accuracy is not reliable enough to draw meaningful conclusions about the relative merits of the MFE and MEA-based algorithms. Second, on our large datasets, the algorithm with best overall accuracy is a pseudo MEA-based algorithm of Hamada et al. that uses a generalized centroid estimator of base pairs. However, between MFE and other MEA-based methods, there is no clear winner in the sense that the relative accuracy of the MFE versus MEA-based algorithms changes depending on the underlying energy parameters. Third, of the four parameter sets we considered, the best accuracy for the MFE-, MEA-based, and pseudo-MEA-based methods is 0.686, 0.680, and 0.711, respectively (on a scale from 0 to 1 with 1 meaning perfect structure predictions) and is obtained with a thermodynamic parameter set obtained by Andronescu et al. called BL* (named after the Boltzmann likelihood method by which the parameters were derived). Conclusions Large datasets should be used to obtain reliable measures of the accuracy of RNA structure prediction algorithms, and average accuracies on specific classes (such as Group I introns and Transfer RNAs) should be interpreted with caution, considering the relatively small size of currently available datasets for such classes. The accuracy of the MEA-based methods is significantly higher when using the BL* parameter set of Andronescu et al. than when using the parameters of Mathews and Turner, and there is no significant difference between the accuracy of MEA-based methods and MFE when using the BL* parameters. The pseudo-MEA-based method of Hamada et al. with the BL* parameter set significantly outperforms all other MFE and MEA-based algorithms on our large data sets. PMID:22296803

Analysis of energy-based algorithms for RNA secondary structure prediction.

PubMed

Hajiaghayi, Monir; Condon, Anne; Hoos, Holger H

2012-02-01

RNA molecules play critical roles in the cells of organisms, including roles in gene regulation, catalysis, and synthesis of proteins. Since RNA function depends in large part on its folded structures, much effort has been invested in developing accurate methods for prediction of RNA secondary structure from the base sequence. Minimum free energy (MFE) predictions are widely used, based on nearest neighbor thermodynamic parameters of Mathews, Turner et al. or those of Andronescu et al. Some recently proposed alternatives that leverage partition function calculations find the structure with maximum expected accuracy (MEA) or pseudo-expected accuracy (pseudo-MEA) methods. Advances in prediction methods are typically benchmarked using sensitivity, positive predictive value and their harmonic mean, namely F-measure, on datasets of known reference structures. Since such benchmarks document progress in improving accuracy of computational prediction methods, it is important to understand how measures of accuracy vary as a function of the reference datasets and whether advances in algorithms or thermodynamic parameters yield statistically significant improvements. Our work advances such understanding for the MFE and (pseudo-)MEA-based methods, with respect to the latest datasets and energy parameters. We present three main findings. First, using the bootstrap percentile method, we show that the average F-measure accuracy of the MFE and (pseudo-)MEA-based algorithms, as measured on our largest datasets with over 2000 RNAs from diverse families, is a reliable estimate (within a 2% range with high confidence) of the accuracy of a population of RNA molecules represented by this set. However, average accuracy on smaller classes of RNAs such as a class of 89 Group I introns used previously in benchmarking algorithm accuracy is not reliable enough to draw meaningful conclusions about the relative merits of the MFE and MEA-based algorithms. Second, on our large datasets, the algorithm with best overall accuracy is a pseudo MEA-based algorithm of Hamada et al. that uses a generalized centroid estimator of base pairs. However, between MFE and other MEA-based methods, there is no clear winner in the sense that the relative accuracy of the MFE versus MEA-based algorithms changes depending on the underlying energy parameters. Third, of the four parameter sets we considered, the best accuracy for the MFE-, MEA-based, and pseudo-MEA-based methods is 0.686, 0.680, and 0.711, respectively (on a scale from 0 to 1 with 1 meaning perfect structure predictions) and is obtained with a thermodynamic parameter set obtained by Andronescu et al. called BL* (named after the Boltzmann likelihood method by which the parameters were derived). Large datasets should be used to obtain reliable measures of the accuracy of RNA structure prediction algorithms, and average accuracies on specific classes (such as Group I introns and Transfer RNAs) should be interpreted with caution, considering the relatively small size of currently available datasets for such classes. The accuracy of the MEA-based methods is significantly higher when using the BL* parameter set of Andronescu et al. than when using the parameters of Mathews and Turner, and there is no significant difference between the accuracy of MEA-based methods and MFE when using the BL* parameters. The pseudo-MEA-based method of Hamada et al. with the BL* parameter set significantly outperforms all other MFE and MEA-based algorithms on our large data sets.

Inferring the temperature dependence of population parameters: the effects of experimental design and inference algorithm

PubMed Central

Palamara, Gian Marco; Childs, Dylan Z; Clements, Christopher F; Petchey, Owen L; Plebani, Marco; Smith, Matthew J

2014-01-01

Understanding and quantifying the temperature dependence of population parameters, such as intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity, is critical for predicting the ecological responses to environmental change. Many studies provide empirical estimates of such temperature dependencies, but a thorough investigation of the methods used to infer them has not been performed yet. We created artificial population time series using a stochastic logistic model parameterized with the Arrhenius equation, so that activation energy drives the temperature dependence of population parameters. We simulated different experimental designs and used different inference methods, varying the likelihood functions and other aspects of the parameter estimation methods. Finally, we applied the best performing inference methods to real data for the species Paramecium caudatum. The relative error of the estimates of activation energy varied between 5% and 30%. The fraction of habitat sampled played the most important role in determining the relative error; sampling at least 1% of the habitat kept it below 50%. We found that methods that simultaneously use all time series data (direct methods) and methods that estimate population parameters separately for each temperature (indirect methods) are complementary. Indirect methods provide a clearer insight into the shape of the functional form describing the temperature dependence of population parameters; direct methods enable a more accurate estimation of the parameters of such functional forms. Using both methods, we found that growth rate and carrying capacity of Paramecium caudatum scale with temperature according to different activation energies. Our study shows how careful choice of experimental design and inference methods can increase the accuracy of the inferred relationships between temperature and population parameters. The comparison of estimation methods provided here can increase the accuracy of model predictions, with important implications in understanding and predicting the effects of temperature on the dynamics of populations. PMID:25558365

Untangling Galaxy Components - The Angular Momentum Parameter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabor, Martha; Merrifield, Michael; Aragon-Salamanca, Alfonso

2017-06-01

We have developed a new technique to decompose Integral Field spectral data cubes into separate bulge and disk components, allowing us to study the kinematic and stellar population properties of the individual components and how they vary with position. We present here the application of this method to a sample of fast rotator early type galaxies from the MaNGA integral field survey, and demonstrate how it can be used to explore key properties of the individual components. By extracting ages, metallicities and the angular momentum parameter lambda of the bulges and disks, we show how this method can give us new insights into the underlying structure of the galaxies and discuss what this can tell us about their evolution history.

Use of an Inverse Method for Time Series to Estimate the Dynamics of and Management Strategies for the Box Jellyfish Carybdea marsupialis.

PubMed

Bordehore, Cesar; Fuentes, Verónica L; Segarra, Jose G; Acevedo, Melisa; Canepa, Antonio; Raventós, Josep

2015-01-01

Frequently, population ecology of marine organisms uses a descriptive approach in which their sizes and densities are plotted over time. This approach has limited usefulness for design strategies in management or modelling different scenarios. Population projection matrix models are among the most widely used tools in ecology. Unfortunately, for the majority of pelagic marine organisms, it is difficult to mark individuals and follow them over time to determine their vital rates and built a population projection matrix model. Nevertheless, it is possible to get time-series data to calculate size structure and densities of each size, in order to determine the matrix parameters. This approach is known as a "demographic inverse problem" and it is based on quadratic programming methods, but it has rarely been used on aquatic organisms. We used unpublished field data of a population of cubomedusae Carybdea marsupialis to construct a population projection matrix model and compare two different management strategies to lower population to values before year 2008 when there was no significant interaction with bathers. Those strategies were by direct removal of medusae and by reducing prey. Our results showed that removal of jellyfish from all size classes was more effective than removing only juveniles or adults. When reducing prey, the highest efficiency to lower the C. marsupialis population occurred when prey depletion affected prey of all medusae sizes. Our model fit well with the field data and may serve to design an efficient management strategy or build hypothetical scenarios such as removal of individuals or reducing prey. TThis This sdfsdshis method is applicable to other marine or terrestrial species, for which density and population structure over time are available.

Advertisement call and genetic structure conservatism: good news for an endangered Neotropical frog

PubMed Central

Costa, William P.; Martins, Lucas B.; Nunes-de-Almeida, Carlos H. L.; Toledo, Luís Felipe

2016-01-01

Background: Many amphibian species are negatively affected by habitat change due to anthropogenic activities. Populations distributed over modified landscapes may be subject to local extinction or may be relegated to the remaining—likely isolated and possibly degraded—patches of available habitat. Isolation without gene flow could lead to variability in phenotypic traits owing to differences in local selective pressures such as environmental structure, microclimate, or site-specific species assemblages. Methods: Here, we tested the microevolution hypothesis by evaluating the acoustic parameters of 349 advertisement calls from 15 males from six populations of the endangered amphibian species Proceratophrys moratoi. In addition, we analyzed the genetic distances among populations and the genetic diversity with a haplotype network analysis. We performed cluster analysis on acoustic data based on the Bray-Curtis index of similarity, using the UPGMA method. We correlated acoustic dissimilarities (calculated by Euclidean distance) with geographical and genetic distances among populations. Results: Spectral traits of the advertisement call of P. moratoi presented lower coefficients of variation than did temporal traits, both within and among males. Cluster analyses placed individuals without congruence in population or geographical distance, but recovered the species topology in relation to sister species. The genetic distance among populations was low; it did not exceed 0.4% for the most distant populations, and was not correlated with acoustic distance. Discussion: Both acoustic features and genetic sequences are highly conserved, suggesting that populations could be connected by recent migrations, and that they are subject to stabilizing selective forces. Although further studies are required, these findings add to a growing body of literature suggesting that this species would be a good candidate for a reintroduction program without negative effects on communication or genetic impact. PMID:27190717

Advertisement call and genetic structure conservatism: good news for an endangered Neotropical frog.

PubMed

Forti, Lucas R; Costa, William P; Martins, Lucas B; Nunes-de-Almeida, Carlos H L; Toledo, Luís Felipe

2016-01-01

Many amphibian species are negatively affected by habitat change due to anthropogenic activities. Populations distributed over modified landscapes may be subject to local extinction or may be relegated to the remaining-likely isolated and possibly degraded-patches of available habitat. Isolation without gene flow could lead to variability in phenotypic traits owing to differences in local selective pressures such as environmental structure, microclimate, or site-specific species assemblages. Here, we tested the microevolution hypothesis by evaluating the acoustic parameters of 349 advertisement calls from 15 males from six populations of the endangered amphibian species Proceratophrys moratoi. In addition, we analyzed the genetic distances among populations and the genetic diversity with a haplotype network analysis. We performed cluster analysis on acoustic data based on the Bray-Curtis index of similarity, using the UPGMA method. We correlated acoustic dissimilarities (calculated by Euclidean distance) with geographical and genetic distances among populations. Spectral traits of the advertisement call of P. moratoi presented lower coefficients of variation than did temporal traits, both within and among males. Cluster analyses placed individuals without congruence in population or geographical distance, but recovered the species topology in relation to sister species. The genetic distance among populations was low; it did not exceed 0.4% for the most distant populations, and was not correlated with acoustic distance. Both acoustic features and genetic sequences are highly conserved, suggesting that populations could be connected by recent migrations, and that they are subject to stabilizing selective forces. Although further studies are required, these findings add to a growing body of literature suggesting that this species would be a good candidate for a reintroduction program without negative effects on communication or genetic impact.

Using demography and movement behavior to predict range expansion of the southern sea otter.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M.T.; Doak, D.F.; Estes, J.A.

2008-01-01

In addition to forecasting population growth, basic demographic data combined with movement data provide a means for predicting rates of range expansion. Quantitative models of range expansion have rarely been applied to large vertebrates, although such tools could be useful for restoration and management of many threatened but recovering populations. Using the southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis) as a case study, we utilized integro-difference equations in combination with a stage-structured projection matrix that incorporated spatial variation in dispersal and demography to make forecasts of population recovery and range recolonization. In addition to these basic predictions, we emphasize how to make these modeling predictions useful in a management context through the inclusion of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Our models resulted in hind-cast (1989–2003) predictions of net population growth and range expansion that closely matched observed patterns. We next made projections of future range expansion and population growth, incorporating uncertainty in all model parameters, and explored the sensitivity of model predictions to variation in spatially explicit survival and dispersal rates. The predicted rate of southward range expansion (median = 5.2 km/yr) was sensitive to both dispersal and survival rates; elasticity analysis indicated that changes in adult survival would have the greatest potential effect on the rate of range expansion, while perturbation analysis showed that variation in subadult dispersal contributed most to variance in model predictions. Variation in survival and dispersal of females at the south end of the range contributed most of the variance in predicted southward range expansion. Our approach provides guidance for the acquisition of further data and a means of forecasting the consequence of specific management actions. Similar methods could aid in the management of other recovering populations.

The Populations of Carina. I. Decoding the Color-Magnitude Diagram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Norris, John E.; Yong, David; Venn, Kim A.; Dotter, Aaron; Casagrande, Luca; Gilmore, Gerard

2017-06-01

We investigate the color-magnitude diagram (CMD) of the Carina dwarf spheroidal galaxy using data of Stetson et al. and synthetic CMDs based on isochrones of Dotter et al., in terms of the parameters [Fe/H], age, and [α/Fe], for the cases when (I) [α/Fe] is held constant and (II) [α/Fe] is varied. The data are well described by four basic epochs of star formation, having [Fe/H] = -1.85, -1.5, -1.2, and ˜-1.15 and ages ˜13, 7, ˜3.5, and ˜1.5 Gyr, respectively (for [α/Fe] = 0.1, constant [α/Fe], and [α/Fe] = 0.2, 0.1, -0.2, -0.2, variable [α/Fe]), with small spreads in [Fe/H] and age of order 0.1 dex and 1-3 Gyr. Within an elliptical radius 13.‧1, the mass fractions of the populations, at their times of formation, were (in decreasing age order) 0.34, 0.39, 0.23, and 0.04. This formalism reproduces five observed CMD features (two distinct subgiant branches of old and intermediate-age populations, two younger, main-sequence components, and the small color dispersion on the red giant branch (RGB). The parameters of the youngest population are less certain than those of the others, and given it is less centrally concentrated, it may not be directly related to them. High-resolution spectroscopically analyzed RGB samples appear statistically incomplete compared with those selected using radial velocity, which contain bluer stars comprising ˜5%-10% of the samples. We conjecture these objects may, at least in part, be members of the youngest population. We use the CMD simulations to obtain insight into the population structure of Carina's upper RGB.

Stochastic Assembly of Bacteria in Microwell Arrays Reveals the Importance of Confinement in Community Development

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Ryan H.; Timm, Andrea C.; Timm, Collin M.

The structure, function and evolving composition of microbial communities is deeply influenced by the physical and chemical architecture of the local microenvironment. The complexity of this parameter space in naturally occurring systems has made a clear understanding of the key drivers of community development elusive. Here, we examine the role of spatial confinement on community development using a microwell platform that allows for assembly and monitoring of unique microbial communities en masse. This platform was designed to contain microwells with varied size features in order to mimic various levels of spatial confinement found in natural systems. Microbial populations assembled inmore » wells with incrementally smaller size features showed increasingly larger variations in inoculum levels. By exploiting this size dependence, large wells were used to assemble homogenous initial populations of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, allowing for reproducible, directed growth trajectories. In contrast, smaller wells were used to assemble a heterogeneous range of initial populations, resulting in a variety of growth and decay trajectories. This allowed for parallel screening of single member communities across different levels of confinement to identify initial conditions in which P. aeruginosa colonies have dramatically higher probabilities of survival. These results demonstrate a unique approach for manipulating the distribution of initial microbial populations assembled into controlled microenvironments to rapidly identify population and environmental parameters conducive or inhibitive to growth. Additionally, multi-member community assembly was characterized to demonstrate the power of this platform for studying the role of member abundance on microbial competition, mutualism and community succession.« less

Stochastic Assembly of Bacteria in Microwell Arrays Reveals the Importance of Confinement in Community Development

DOE PAGES

Hansen, Ryan H.; Timm, Andrea C.; Timm, Collin M.; ...

2016-05-06

The structure, function and evolving composition of microbial communities is deeply influenced by the physical and chemical architecture of the local microenvironment. The complexity of this parameter space in naturally occurring systems has made a clear understanding of the key drivers of community development elusive. Here, we examine the role of spatial confinement on community development using a microwell platform that allows for assembly and monitoring of unique microbial communities en masse. This platform was designed to contain microwells with varied size features in order to mimic various levels of spatial confinement found in natural systems. Microbial populations assembled inmore » wells with incrementally smaller size features showed increasingly larger variations in inoculum levels. By exploiting this size dependence, large wells were used to assemble homogenous initial populations of Pseudomonas aeruginosa, allowing for reproducible, directed growth trajectories. In contrast, smaller wells were used to assemble a heterogeneous range of initial populations, resulting in a variety of growth and decay trajectories. This allowed for parallel screening of single member communities across different levels of confinement to identify initial conditions in which P. aeruginosa colonies have dramatically higher probabilities of survival. These results demonstrate a unique approach for manipulating the distribution of initial microbial populations assembled into controlled microenvironments to rapidly identify population and environmental parameters conducive or inhibitive to growth. Additionally, multi-member community assembly was characterized to demonstrate the power of this platform for studying the role of member abundance on microbial competition, mutualism and community succession.« less

Optimal designs for population pharmacokinetic studies of the partner drugs co-administered with artemisinin derivatives in patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria.

PubMed

Jamsen, Kris M; Duffull, Stephen B; Tarning, Joel; Lindegardh, Niklas; White, Nicholas J; Simpson, Julie A

2012-07-11

Artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) is currently recommended as first-line treatment for uncomplicated malaria, but of concern, it has been observed that the effectiveness of the main artemisinin derivative, artesunate, has been diminished due to parasite resistance. This reduction in effect highlights the importance of the partner drugs in ACT and provides motivation to gain more knowledge of their pharmacokinetic (PK) properties via population PK studies. Optimal design methodology has been developed for population PK studies, which analytically determines a sampling schedule that is clinically feasible and yields precise estimation of model parameters. In this work, optimal design methodology was used to determine sampling designs for typical future population PK studies of the partner drugs (mefloquine, lumefantrine, piperaquine and amodiaquine) co-administered with artemisinin derivatives. The optimal designs were determined using freely available software and were based on structural PK models from the literature and the key specifications of 100 patients with five samples per patient, with one sample taken on the seventh day of treatment. The derived optimal designs were then evaluated via a simulation-estimation procedure. For all partner drugs, designs consisting of two sampling schedules (50 patients per schedule) with five samples per patient resulted in acceptable precision of the model parameter estimates. The sampling schedules proposed in this paper should be considered in future population pharmacokinetic studies where intensive sampling over many days or weeks of follow-up is not possible due to either ethical, logistic or economical reasons.

Galaxy evolution in the densest environments: HST imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jorgensen, Inger

2013-10-01

We propose to process in a consistent fashion all available HST/ACS and WFC3 imaging of seven rich clusters of galaxies at z=1.2-1.6. The clusters are part of our larger project aimed at constraining models for galaxy evolution in dense environments from observations of stellar populations in rich z=1.2-2 galaxy clusters. The main objective is to establish the star formation {SF} history and structural evolution over this epoch during which large changes in SF rates and galaxy structure are expected to take place in cluster galaxies.The observational data required to meet our main objective are deep HST imaging and high S/N spectroscopy of individual cluster members. The HST imaging already exists for the seven rich clusters at z=1.2-1.6 included in this archive proposal. However, the data have not been consistently processed to derive colors, magnitudes, sizes and morphological parameters for all potential cluster members bright enough to be suitable for spectroscopic observations with 8-m class telescopes. We propose to carry out this processing and make all derived parameters publicly available. We will use the parameters derived from the HST imaging to {1} study the structural evolution of the galaxies, {2} select clusters and galaxies for spectroscopic observations, and {3} use the photometry and spectroscopy together for a unified analysis aimed at the SF history and structural changes. The analysis will also utilize data from the Gemini/HST Cluster Galaxy Project, which covers rich clusters at z=0.2-1.0 and for which we have similar HST imaging and high S/N spectroscopy available.

Gone with the currents: lack of genetic differentiation at the circum-continental scale in the Antarctic krill Euphausia superba

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Southern Ocean fauna represent a significant amount of global biodiversity, whose origin may be linked to glacial cycles determining local extinction/eradication with ice advance, survival of refugee populations and post-glacial re-colonization. This pattern implies high potential for differentiation in benthic shelf species with limited dispersal, yet consequences for pelagic organisms are less clear. The present study investigates levels of genetic variation and population structure of the Antarctic krill Euphausia superba using mitochondrial DNA and EST-linked microsatellite markers for an unprecedentedly comprehensive sampling of its populations over a circum-Antarctic range. Results MtDNA (ND1) sequences and EST-linked microsatellite markers indicated no clear sign of genetic structure among populations over large geographic scales, despite considerable power to detect differences inferred from forward-time simulations. Based on ND1, few instances of genetic heterogeneity, not significant after correction for multiple tests, were detected between geographic or temporal samples. Neutrality tests and mismatch distribution based on mtDNA sequences revealed strong evidence of past population expansion. Significant positive values of the parameter g (a measure of population growth) were obtained from microsatellite markers using a coalescent-based genealogical method and suggested a recent start (60 000 - 40 000 years ago) for the expansion. Conclusions The results provide evidence of lack of genetic heterogeneity of Antarctic krill at large geographic scales and unequivocal support for recent population expansion. Lack of genetic structuring likely reflects the tight link between krill and circum-Antarctic ocean currents and is consistent with the hypothesis that differentiation processes in Antarctic species are largely influenced by dispersal potential, whereas small-scale spatial and temporal differentiation might be due to local conditions leading to genetic patchiness. The signal of recent population growth suggests differential impact of glacial cycles on pelagic Antarctic species, which experienced population expansion during glaciations with increased available habitat, versus sedentary benthic shelf species. EST-linked microsatellites provide new perspectives to complement the results based on mtDNA and suggest that data-mining of EST libraries will be a useful approach to facilitate use of microsatellites for additional species. PMID:21486439

Individual wealth-based selection supports cooperation in spatial public goods games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiaojie; Szolnoki, Attila

2016-09-01

In a social dilemma game group members are allowed to decide if they contribute to the joint venture or not. As a consequence, defectors, who do not invest but only enjoy the mutual benefit, prevail and the system evolves onto the tragedy of the common state. This unfortunate scenario can be avoided if participation is not obligatory but only happens with a given probability. But what if we also consider a player’s individual wealth when to decide about participation? To address this issue we propose a model in which the probabilistic participation in the public goods game is combined with a conditional investment mode that is based on individual wealth: if a player’s wealth exceeds a threshold value then it is qualified and can participate in the joint venture. Otherwise, the participation is forbidden in the investment interactions. We show that if only probabilistic participation is considered, spatially structured populations cannot support cooperation better than well-mixed populations where full defection state can also be avoided for small participation probabilities. By adding the wealth-based criterion of participation, however, structured populations are capable to augment network reciprocity relevantly and allow cooperator strategy to dominate in a broader parameter interval.

Volcanisme, activité anthropique et circulation des masses océaniques : leur influence respective sur la distribution des populations d'ostracodes dans la baie de Kagoshima (île de Kyushu, Japon)Impact of volcanism, human activities, and water mass circulation on the distribution of ostracod populations in Kagoshima Bay (Kyushu Island, southern Japan)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodergat, Anne-Marie; Oki, Kimihiko; Ishizaki, Kunihiro; Rio, Michel

2002-11-01

The distribution of ostracod populations in Kagoshima Bay (Japan) is analysed with reference to different environmental parameters. The bay is an area of volcanic activity of Sakurajima volcano under the influence of the Kuroshio Current. Most of the Head environment is occupied by an acidic water mass. Numbers of individual and species decrease from the Mouth of the bay towards the Basin and Head environments. In this latter, acidic water mass has a drastic effect on ostracod populations, whereas volcanic ashes and domestic inputs are not hostile. Ostracod distribution is influenced by the quality and structure of water masses. To cite this article: A.-M. Bodergat et al., C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 1053-1059.

A comparison of reproductive parameters of female Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) in the wild and captivity.

PubMed

Gu, Jiayin; Guo, Yurong; Stott, Philip; Jiang, Guangshun; Ma, Jianzhang

2016-01-01

A healthy population of captive Amur tigers might assist recovery of the wild population in Northeast China if individuals were properly prepared and considered suitable for release in the wild. We analyzed the breeding records of 68 female Amur tigers from 1995 to 2010 in the Hengdaohezi Felid Breeding Center of China and compared the reproductive parameters of this population to wild female Amur tigers. We found that the reproductive parameters of the captive population (the age of first parturition, length of gestation and litter survival rate) were not significantly different from those of wild Amur tigers. Differences in birth date and litter size between wild and captive populations may be caused by management protocols for the captive population or insufficient field data from the wild population. Reproductive parameters of females giving birth after losing a litter were similar to parameters of females that did not lose a litter, except for birth date. These results provide no indication of major problems in using captive females for a breeding program for release of cubs into the wild, but additional information is still needed to assess their suitability. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Effective Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue for a correlated random map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pool, Roman R.; Cáceres, Manuel O.

2010-09-01

We investigate the evolution of random positive linear maps with various type of disorder by analytic perturbation and direct simulation. Our theoretical result indicates that the statistics of a random linear map can be successfully described for long time by the mean-value vector state. The growth rate can be characterized by an effective Perron-Frobenius eigenvalue that strongly depends on the type of correlation between the elements of the projection matrix. We apply this approach to an age-structured population dynamics model. We show that the asymptotic mean-value vector state characterizes the population growth rate when the age-structured model has random vital parameters. In this case our approach reveals the nontrivial dependence of the effective growth rate with cross correlations. The problem was reduced to the calculation of the smallest positive root of a secular polynomial, which can be obtained by perturbations in terms of Green’s function diagrammatic technique built with noncommutative cumulants for arbitrary n -point correlations.

Ensemble of hybrid genetic algorithm for two-dimensional phase unwrapping

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balakrishnan, D.; Quan, C.; Tay, C. J.

2013-06-01

The phase unwrapping is the final and trickiest step in any phase retrieval technique. Phase unwrapping by artificial intelligence methods (optimization algorithms) such as hybrid genetic algorithm, reverse simulated annealing, particle swarm optimization, minimum cost matching showed better results than conventional phase unwrapping methods. In this paper, Ensemble of hybrid genetic algorithm with parallel populations is proposed to solve the branch-cut phase unwrapping problem. In a single populated hybrid genetic algorithm, the selection, cross-over and mutation operators are applied to obtain new population in every generation. The parameters and choice of operators will affect the performance of the hybrid genetic algorithm. The ensemble of hybrid genetic algorithm will facilitate to have different parameters set and different choice of operators simultaneously. Each population will use different set of parameters and the offspring of each population will compete against the offspring of all other populations, which use different set of parameters. The effectiveness of proposed algorithm is demonstrated by phase unwrapping examples and advantages of the proposed method are discussed.

Development of a spatially distributed model of fish population density for habitat assessment of rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sui, Pengzhe; Iwasaki, Akito; Ryo, Masahiro; Saavedra, Oliver; Yoshimura, Chihiro

2013-04-01

Flow conditions play an important role in sustaining biodiversity of river ecosystem. However, their relations to freshwater fishes, especially to fish population density, have not been clearly described. This study, therefore, aimed to propose a new methodology to quantitatively link habitat conditions, including flow conditions and other physical conditions, to population density of fish species. We developed a basin-scale fish distribution model by integrating the concept of habitat suitability assessment with a distributed hydrological model (DHM) in order to estimate fish population density with particular attention to flow conditions. Generalized linear model (GLM) was employed to evaluate the relationship between population density of fish species and major environmental factors. The target basin was Sagami River in central Japan, where the river reach was divided into 10 sections by estuary, confluences of tributaries, and river-crossing structures (dams, weirs). The DHM was employed to simulate river discharge from 1998 to 2005, which was used to calculate 10 flow indices including mean discharge, 25th and 75th percentile discharge, duration of low and high flows, number of floods. In addition, 5 water quality parameters and 13 other physical conditions (such as basin area, river width, mean diameter of riverbed material, and number of river-crossing structures upstream and downstream) of each river section were considered as environmental variables. In case of Sagami River, 10 habitat variables among them were then selected based on their correlations to avoid multicollinearity. Finally, the best GLM was developed for each species based on Akaike's information criterion. As results, population densities of 16 fish species in Sagami River were modelled, and correlation coefficients between observed and calculated population densities for 10 species were more than 0.70. The key habitat factors for population density varied among fish species. Minimum discharge (MID) was found to be positively correlated to 9 among 16 fish species. For duration of high and low flows (DHF and DLF), longer DHF/DLF was corresponded to lower population density for 7/6 fish species, respectively, such as Rhinogobius kurodai and Plecoglossus altivelis altivelis. Among physical habitat conditions, sinuosity index (SI, the ratio between actual river section length and straight line length) seems to be the most important parameter for fish population density in Sagami River basin, since it affects 12 out of 16 fish species, followed by mean longitudinal slope (S) and number of downstream dams (NLD). Above results demonstrated the applicability of fish distribution model to provide quantitative information on flow conditions required to maintain fish population, which enabled us to evaluate and project ecological consequences of water resource management policy, such as flood management and water withdrawal.

Indirect estimates of natal dispersal distance from genetic data in a stream-dwelling fish (Mogurnda adspersa).

PubMed

Shipham, Ashlee; Schmidt, Daniel J; Hughes, Jane M

2013-01-01

Recent work has highlighted the need to account for hierarchical patterns of genetic structure when estimating evolutionary and ecological parameters of interest. This caution is particularly relevant to studies of riverine organisms, where hierarchical structure appears to be commonplace. Here, we indirectly estimate dispersal distance in a hierarchically structured freshwater fish, Mogurnda adspersa. Microsatellite and mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) data were obtained for 443 individuals across 27 sites separated by an average of 1.3 km within creeks of southeastern Queensland, Australia. Significant genetic structure was found among sites (mtDNA Φ(ST) = 0.508; microsatellite F(ST) = 0.225, F'(ST) = 0.340). Various clustering methods produced congruent patterns of hierarchical structure reflecting stream architecture. Partial mantel tests identified contiguous sets of sample sites where isolation by distance (IBD) explained F(ST) variation without significant contribution of hierarchical structure. Analysis of mean natal dispersal distance (σ) within sets of IBD-linked sample sites suggested most dispersal occurs over less than 1 km, and the average effective density (D(e)) was estimated at 11.5 individuals km(-1); indicating sedentary behavior and small effective population size are responsible for the remarkable patterns of genetic structure observed. Our results demonstrate that Rousset's regression-based method is applicable to estimating the scale of dispersal in riverine organisms and that identifying contiguous populations that satisfy the assumptions of this model is achievable with genetic clustering methods and partial correlations.

Assessing the causal effect of policies: an example using stochastic interventions.

PubMed

Díaz, Iván; van der Laan, Mark J

2013-11-19

Assessing the causal effect of an exposure often involves the definition of counterfactual outcomes in a hypothetical world in which the stochastic nature of the exposure is modified. Although stochastic interventions are a powerful tool to measure the causal effect of a realistic intervention that intends to alter the population distribution of an exposure, their importance to answer questions about plausible policy interventions has been obscured by the generalized use of deterministic interventions. In this article, we follow the approach described in Díaz and van der Laan (2012) to define and estimate the effect of an intervention that is expected to cause a truncation in the population distribution of the exposure. The observed data parameter that identifies the causal parameter of interest is established, as well as its efficient influence function under the non-parametric model. Inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW), augmented IPTW and targeted minimum loss-based estimators (TMLE) are proposed, their consistency and efficiency properties are determined. An extension to longitudinal data structures is presented and its use is demonstrated with a real data example.

In vitro ovine articular chondrocyte proliferation: experiments and modelling.

PubMed

Mancuso, L; Liuzzo, M I; Fadda, S; Pisu, M; Cincotti, A; Arras, M; La Nasa, G; Concas, A; Cao, G

2010-06-01

This study focuses on analysis of in vitro cultures of chondrocytes from ovine articular cartilage. Isolated cells were seeded in Petri dishes, then expanded to confluence and phenotypically characterized by flow cytometry. The sigmoidal temporal profile of total counts was obtained by classic haemocytometry and corresponding cell size distributions were measured electronically using a Coulter Counter. A mathematical model recently proposed (1) was adopted for quantitative interpretation of these experimental data. The model is based on a 1-D (that is, mass-structured), single-staged population balance approach capable of taking into account contact inhibition at confluence. The model's parameters were determined by fitting measured total cell counts and size distributions. Model reliability was verified by predicting cell proliferation counts and corresponding size distributions at culture times longer than those used when tuning the model's parameters. It was found that adoption of cell mass as the intrinsic characteristic of a growing chondrocyte population enables sigmoidal temporal profiles of total counts in the Petri dish, as well as cell size distributions at 'balanced growth', to be adequately predicted.

Compensatory effects of recruitment and survival when amphibian populations are perturbed by disease

USGS Publications Warehouse

Muths, E.; Scherer, R. D.; Pilliod, D.S.

2011-01-01

The need to increase our understanding of factors that regulate animal population dynamics has been catalysed by recent, observed declines in wildlife populations worldwide. Reliable estimates of demographic parameters are critical for addressing basic and applied ecological questions and understanding the response of parameters to perturbations (e.g. disease, habitat loss, climate change). However, to fully assess the impact of perturbation on population dynamics, all parameters contributing to the response of the target population must be estimated. We applied the reverse-time model of Pradel in Program mark to 6years of capture-recapture data from two populations of Anaxyrus boreas (boreal toad) populations, one with disease and one without. We then assessed a priori hypotheses about differences in survival and recruitment relative to local environmental conditions and the presence of disease. We further explored the relative contribution of survival probability and recruitment rate to population growth and investigated how shifts in these parameters can alter population dynamics when a population is perturbed. High recruitment rates (0??41) are probably compensating for low survival probability (range 0??51-0??54) in the population challenged by an emerging pathogen, resulting in a relatively slow rate of decline. In contrast, the population with no evidence of disease had high survival probability (range 0??75-0??78) but lower recruitment rates (0??25). Synthesis and applications.We suggest that the relationship between survival and recruitment may be compensatory, providing evidence that populations challenged with disease are not necessarily doomed to extinction. A better understanding of these interactions may help to explain, and be used to predict, population regulation and persistence for wildlife threatened with disease. Further, reliable estimates of population parameters such as recruitment and survival can guide the formulation and implementation of conservation actions such as repatriations or habitat management aimed to improve recruitment. ?? 2011 The Authors. Journal of Applied Ecology ?? 2011 British Ecological Society.

Effects of developmental variability on the dynamics and self-organization of cell populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prabhakara, Kaumudi H.; Gholami, Azam; Zykov, Vladimir S.; Bodenschatz, Eberhard

2017-11-01

We report experimental and theoretical results for spatiotemporal pattern formation in cell populations, where the parameters vary in space and time due to mechanisms intrinsic to the system, namely Dictyostelium discoideum (D.d.) in the starvation phase. We find that different patterns are formed when the populations are initialized at different developmental stages, or when populations at different initial developmental stages are mixed. The experimentally observed patterns can be understood with a modified Kessler-Levine model that takes into account the initial spatial heterogeneity of the cell populations and a developmental path introduced by us, i.e. the time dependence of the various biochemical parameters. The dynamics of the parameters agree with known biochemical studies. Most importantly, the modified model reproduces not only our results, but also the observations of an independent experiment published earlier. This shows that pattern formation can be used to understand and quantify the temporal evolution of the system parameters.

Monitoring population and environmental parameters of invasive mosquito species in Europe

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

To enable a better understanding of the overwhelming alterations in the invasive mosquito species (IMS), methodical insight into the population and environmental factors that govern the IMS and pathogen adaptations are essential. There are numerous ways of estimating mosquito populations, and usually these describe developmental and life-history parameters. The key population parameters that should be considered during the surveillance of invasive mosquito species are: (1) population size and dynamics during the season, (2) longevity, (3) biting behaviour, and (4) dispersal capacity. Knowledge of these parameters coupled with vector competence may help to determine the vectorial capacity of IMS and basic disease reproduction number (R0) to support mosquito borne disease (MBD) risk assessment. Similarly, environmental factors include availability and type of larval breeding containers, climate change, environmental change, human population density, increased human travel and goods transport, changes in living, agricultural and farming habits (e.g. land use), and reduction of resources in the life cycle of mosquitoes by interventions (e.g. source reduction of aquatic habitats). Human population distributions, urbanisation, and human population movement are the key behavioural factors in most IMS-transmitted diseases. Anthropogenic issues are related to the global spread of MBD such as the introduction, reintroduction, circulation of IMS and increased exposure to humans from infected mosquito bites. This review addresses the population and environmental factors underlying the growing changes in IMS populations in Europe and confers the parameters selected by criteria of their applicability. In addition, overview of the commonly used and newly developed tools for their monitoring is provided. PMID:24739334

Speciation in the Derrida-Higgs model with finite genomes and spatial populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Aguiar, Marcus A. M.

2017-02-01

The speciation model proposed by Derrida and Higgs demonstrated that a sexually reproducing population can split into different species in the absence of natural selection or any type of geographic isolation, provided that mating is assortative and the number of genes involved in the process is infinite. Here we revisit this model and simulate it for finite genomes, focusing on the question of how many genes it actually takes to trigger neutral sympatric speciation. We find that, for typical parameters used in the original model, it takes the order of 105 genes. We compare the results with a similar spatially explicit model where about 100 genes suffice for speciation. We show that when the number of genes is small the species that emerge are strongly segregated in space. For a larger number of genes, on the other hand, the spatial structure of the population is less important and the species distribution overlap considerably.

Image-driven Population Analysis through Mixture Modeling

PubMed Central

Sabuncu, Mert R.; Balci, Serdar K.; Shenton, Martha E.; Golland, Polina

2009-01-01

We present iCluster, a fast and efficient algorithm that clusters a set of images while co-registering them using a parameterized, nonlinear transformation model. The output of the algorithm is a small number of template images that represent different modes in a population. This is in contrast with traditional, hypothesis-driven computational anatomy approaches that assume a single template to construct an atlas. We derive the algorithm based on a generative model of an image population as a mixture of deformable template images. We validate and explore our method in four experiments. In the first experiment, we use synthetic data to explore the behavior of the algorithm and inform a design choice on parameter settings. In the second experiment, we demonstrate the utility of having multiple atlases for the application of localizing temporal lobe brain structures in a pool of subjects that contains healthy controls and schizophrenia patients. Next, we employ iCluster to partition a data set of 415 whole brain MR volumes of subjects aged 18 through 96 years into three anatomical subgroups. Our analysis suggests that these subgroups mainly correspond to age groups. The templates reveal significant structural differences across these age groups that confirm previous findings in aging research. In the final experiment, we run iCluster on a group of 15 patients with dementia and 15 age-matched healthy controls. The algorithm produces two modes, one of which contains dementia patients only. These results suggest that the algorithm can be used to discover sub-populations that correspond to interesting structural or functional “modes.” PMID:19336293

Data-Limited Population-Status Evaluation of Two Coastal Fishes in Southern Angola Using Recreational Catch Length-Frequency Data

PubMed Central

Beckensteiner, Jennifer; Kaplan, David M.; Potts, Warren M.; Santos, Carmen V.; O’Farrell, Michael R.

2016-01-01

Excessive truncation of a population’s size structure is often identified as an important deleterious effect of exploitation, yet the effect on population persistence of size-structure truncation caused by exploitation is often not quantified due to data limitations. In this study, we estimate changes in eggs per recruit (EPR) using annual length-frequency samples over a 9 year period to assess persistence of the two most important recreational fishes in southern Angola: west coast dusky kob (Argyrosomus coronus) and leerfish (Lichia amia). Using a length- and age-structured model, we improve on an existing method to fit this type of model to length-frequency data and estimate EPR. The objectives of the methodological changes are to add flexibility and robustness to the approach for assessing population status in data-limited situations. Results indicate that dusky kob presents very low levels of EPR (5%-10% of the per recruit reproductive capacity in the absence of fishing) in 2013, whereas large inter-annual variability in leerfish estimates suggest caution must be applied when drawing conclusions about its exploitation status. Using simulated length frequency data with known parameter values, we demonstrate that recruitment decline due to overexploitation leads to overestimation of EPR values. Considering the low levels of EPR estimated for the study species, recruitment limitation is not impossible and true EPR values may be even lower than our estimates. It is, therefore, likely that management action, such as the creation of Marine Protected Areas, is needed to reconstitute the west coast dusky kob population. PMID:26829489

Spatial dynamics of a population with stage-dependent diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azevedo, F.; Coutinho, R. M.; Kraenkel, R. A.

2015-05-01

We explore the spatial dynamics of a population whose individuals go through life stages with very different dispersal capacities. We model it through a system of partial differential equations of the reaction-diffusion kind, with nonlinear diffusion terms that may depend on population density and on the stage. This model includes a few key biological ingredients: growth and saturation, life stage structure, small population effects, and diffusion dependent on the stage. In particular, we consider that adults exhibit two distinct classes: one highly mobile and the other less mobile but with higher fecundity rate, and the development of juveniles into one or the other depends on population density. We parametrize the model with estimated parameters of an insect species, the brown planthopper. We focus on a situation akin to an invasion of the species in a new habitat and find that the front of invasion is led by the most mobile adult class. We also show that the trade-off between dispersal and fecundity leads to invasion speed attaining its maximum at an intermediate value of the diffusion coefficient of the most mobile class.

Tropical insular fish assemblages are resilient to flood disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, William E.; Kwak, Thomas J.

2015-01-01

Periods of stable environmental conditions, favoring development of ecological communities regulated by density-dependent processes, are interrupted by random periods of disturbance that may restructure communities. Disturbance may affect populations via habitat alteration, mortality, or displacement. We quantified fish habitat conditions, density, and movement before and after a major flood disturbance in a Caribbean island tropical river using habitat surveys, fish sampling and population estimates, radio telemetry, and passively monitored PIT tags. Native stream fish populations showed evidence of acute mortality and downstream displacement of surviving fish. All fish species were reduced in number at most life stages after the disturbance, but populations responded with recruitment and migration into vacated upstream habitats. Changes in density were uneven among size classes for most species, indicating altered size structures. Rapid recovery processes at the population level appeared to dampen effects at the assemblage level, as fish assemblage parameters (species richness and diversity) were unchanged by the flooding. The native fish assemblage appeared resilient to flood disturbance, rapidly compensating for mortality and displacement with increased recruitment and recolonization of upstream habitats.

Temporal Genetic Dynamics of an Invasive Species, Frankliniella occidentalis (Pergande), in an Early Phase of Establishment

PubMed Central

Yang, Xian-Ming; Lou, Heng; Sun, Jing-Tao; Zhu, Yi-Ming; Xue, Xiao-Feng; Hong, Xiao-Yue

2015-01-01

Many species can successfully colonize new areas despite their propagules having low genetic variation. We assessed whether the decreased genetic diversity could result in temporal fluctuations of genetic parameters of the new populations of an invasive species, western flower thrips, Frankliniella occidentalis, using mitochondrial and microsatellite markers. This study was conducted in eight localities from four climate regions in China, where F. occidentalis was introduced in the year 2000 and had lower genetic diversity than its native populations. We also tested the level of genetic differentiation in these introduced populations. The genetic diversity of the samples at different years in the same locality was not significantly different from each other in most localities. FST and STRUCTURE analysis also showed that most temporal population comparisons from the same sites were not significantly differentiated. Our results showed that the invasive populations of F. occidentalis in China can maintain temporal stability in genetic composition at an early phase of establishment despite having lower genetic diversity than in their native range. PMID:26138760

FITPOP, a heuristic simulation model of population dynamics and genetics with special reference to fisheries

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenna, James E.

2000-01-01

Although, perceiving genetic differences and their effects on fish population dynamics is difficult, simulation models offer a means to explore and illustrate these effects. I partitioned the intrinsic rate of increase parameter of a simple logistic-competition model into three components, allowing specification of effects of relative differences in fitness and mortality, as well as finite rate of increase. This model was placed into an interactive, stochastic environment to allow easy manipulation of model parameters (FITPOP). Simulation results illustrated the effects of subtle differences in genetic and population parameters on total population size, overall fitness, and sensitivity of the system to variability. Several consequences of mixing genetically distinct populations were illustrated. For example, behaviors such as depression of population size after initial introgression and extirpation of native stocks due to continuous stocking of genetically inferior fish were reproduced. It also was shown that carrying capacity relative to the amount of stocking had an important influence on population dynamics. Uncertainty associated with parameter estimates reduced confidence in model projections. The FITPOP model provided a simple tool to explore population dynamics, which may assist in formulating management strategies and identifying research needs.

Parameter as a Switch Between Dynamical States of a Network in Population Decoding.

PubMed

Yu, Jiali; Mao, Hua; Yi, Zhang

2017-04-01

Population coding is a method to represent stimuli using the collective activities of a number of neurons. Nevertheless, it is difficult to extract information from these population codes with the noise inherent in neuronal responses. Moreover, it is a challenge to identify the right parameter of the decoding model, which plays a key role for convergence. To address the problem, a population decoding model is proposed for parameter selection. Our method successfully identified the key conditions for a nonzero continuous attractor. Both the theoretical analysis and the application studies demonstrate the correctness and effectiveness of this strategy.

A method for estimating 2D Wrinkle Ridge Strain from application of fault displacement scaling to the Yakima Folds, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mège, Daniel; Reidel, Stephen P.

The Yakima folds on the central Columbia Plateau are a succession of thrusted anticlines thought to be analogs of planetary wrinkle ridges. They provide a unique opportunity to understand wrinkle ridge structure. Field data and length-displacement scaling are used to demonstrate a method for estimating two-dimensional horizontal contractional strain at wrinkle ridges. Strain is given as a function of ridge length, and depends on other parameters that can be inferred from the Yakima folds and fault population displacement studies. Because ridge length can be readily obtained from orbital imagery, the method can be applied to any wrinkle ridge population, and helps constrain quantitative tectonic models on other planets.

Genetic variability and heritability of chlorophyll a fluorescence parameters in Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.).

PubMed

Čepl, Jaroslav; Holá, Dana; Stejskal, Jan; Korecký, Jiří; Kočová, Marie; Lhotáková, Zuzana; Tomášková, Ivana; Palovská, Markéta; Rothová, Olga; Whetten, Ross W; Kaňák, Jan; Albrechtová, Jana; Lstibůrek, Milan

2016-07-01

Current knowledge of the genetic mechanisms underlying the inheritance of photosynthetic activity in forest trees is generally limited, yet it is essential both for various practical forestry purposes and for better understanding of broader evolutionary mechanisms. In this study, we investigated genetic variation underlying selected chlorophyll a fluorescence (ChlF) parameters in structured populations of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) grown on two sites under non-stress conditions. These parameters were derived from the OJIP part of the ChlF kinetics curve and characterize individual parts of primary photosynthetic processes associated, for example, with the exciton trapping by light-harvesting antennae, energy utilization in photosystem II (PSII) reaction centers (RCs) and its transfer further down the photosynthetic electron-transport chain. An additive relationship matrix was estimated based on pedigree reconstruction, utilizing a set of highly polymorphic single sequence repeat markers. Variance decomposition was conducted using the animal genetic evaluation mixed-linear model. The majority of ChlF parameters in the analyzed pine populations showed significant additive genetic variation. Statistically significant heritability estimates were obtained for most ChlF indices, with the exception of DI0/RC, φD0 and φP0 (Fv/Fm) parameters. Estimated heritabilities varied around the value of 0.15 with the maximal value of 0.23 in the ET0/RC parameter, which indicates electron-transport flux from QA to QB per PSII RC. No significant correlation was found between these indices and selected growth traits. Moreover, no genotype × environment interaction (G × E) was detected, i.e., no differences in genotypes' performance between sites. The absence of significant G × E in our study is interesting, given the relatively low heritability found for the majority of parameters analyzed. Therefore, we infer that polygenic variability of these indices is selectively neutral. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Temporal variation in life-history traits of the clam Tivela mactroides (Bivalvia: Veneridae): Density-dependent processes in sandy beaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turra, Alexander; Petracco, Marcelo; Amaral, A. Cecilia Z.; Denadai, Márcia R.

2014-10-01

Temporal variation in the structure and dynamics of a population of Tivela mactroides was examined over two periods (2003-2004 and 2007-2008) in the southern part of Caraguatatuba Bay, southeastern Brazil. During the first period from January 2003 to October 2004, sampling was conducted monthly. Sampling in the second period was performed in the summer (January and February 2007 and 2008) and winter (July and August 2007 and 2008). The von Bertalanffy growth function was applied to estimate growth parameters for both periods from length-frequency distributions. Production was determined using the mass-specific growth rate method. Results indicated that the mean abundance (±SE) of T. mactroides varied sharply between the two periods, with an increase of almost 150 times from 2003 to 2004 (8.67·102 ± 0.83·102 ind m-1) to 2007-2008 (1.25·105 ± 3.33·104 ind m-1). The higher abundance in the second period was related to successful recruitment events. While the mean biomass and the production were higher in the second (5.43 ± 0.87 kg AFDM m-1 and 7.89 kg AFDM m-1 yr-1) than in the first period (0.18 ± 0.02 kg AFDM m-1 and 0.18 kg AFDM m-1 yr-1), lower values of shell length, curvature parameter, asymptotic length of the VBGF, and the growth index phi-prime in 2007-2008 (17.57 ± 1.35 mm; K = 0.40 yr-1; L∞ = 38.60 mm, ϕ‧ = 2.78) than in 2003-2004 (26.21 ± 1.21 mm; K = 1.00 yr-1; L∞ = 40.75 mm, ϕ‧ = 3.22) were related to a strongly density-dependent growth process in the second period. The oscillation in growth observed in the second, but not in the first period also indicates a process of density-dependent growth. These sharp temporal variations in population parameters of T. mactroides suggest the occurrence of density-dependent processes, and reinforce the importance of these processes in structuring sandy-beach populations.

Estimating age from recapture data: integrating incremental growth measures with ancillary data to infer age-at-length

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell J.; Link, William A.

2011-01-01

Estimating the age of individuals in wild populations can be of fundamental importance for answering ecological questions, modeling population demographics, and managing exploited or threatened species. Significant effort has been devoted to determining age through the use of growth annuli, secondary physical characteristics related to age, and growth models. Many species, however, either do not exhibit physical characteristics useful for independent age validation or are too rare to justify sacrificing a large number of individuals to establish the relationship between size and age. Length-at-age models are well represented in the fisheries and other wildlife management literature. Many of these models overlook variation in growth rates of individuals and consider growth parameters as population parameters. More recent models have taken advantage of hierarchical structuring of parameters and Bayesian inference methods to allow for variation among individuals as functions of environmental covariates or individual-specific random effects. Here, we describe hierarchical models in which growth curves vary as individual-specific stochastic processes, and we show how these models can be fit using capture–recapture data for animals of unknown age along with data for animals of known age. We combine these independent data sources in a Bayesian analysis, distinguishing natural variation (among and within individuals) from measurement error. We illustrate using data for African dwarf crocodiles, comparing von Bertalanffy and logistic growth models. The analysis provides the means of predicting crocodile age, given a single measurement of head length. The von Bertalanffy was much better supported than the logistic growth model and predicted that dwarf crocodiles grow from 19.4 cm total length at birth to 32.9 cm in the first year and 45.3 cm by the end of their second year. Based on the minimum size of females observed with hatchlings, reproductive maturity was estimated to be at nine years. These size benchmarks are believed to represent thresholds for important demographic parameters; improved estimates of age, therefore, will increase the precision of population projection models. The modeling approach that we present can be applied to other species and offers significant advantages when multiple sources of data are available and traditional aging techniques are not practical.

Genome-wide survey of single-nucleotide polymorphisms reveals fine-scale population structure and signs of selection in the threatened Caribbean elkhorn coral, Acropora palmata

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

The advent of next-generation sequencing tools has made it possible to conduct fine-scale surveys of population differentiation and genome-wide scans for signatures of selection in non-model organisms. Such surveys are of particular importance in sharply declining coral species, since knowledge of population boundaries and signs of local adaptation can inform restoration and conservation efforts. Here, we use genome-wide surveys of single-nucleotide polymorphisms in the threatened Caribbean elkhorn coral, Acropora palmata, to reveal fine-scale population structure and infer the major barrier to gene flow that separates the eastern and western Caribbean populations between the Bahamas and Puerto Rico. The exact location of this break had been subject to discussion because two previous studies based on microsatellite data had come to differing conclusions. We investigate this contradiction by analyzing an extended set of 11 microsatellite markers including the five previously employed and discovered that one of the original microsatellite loci is apparently under selection. Exclusion of this locus reconciles the results from the SNP and the microsatellite datasets. Scans for outlier loci in the SNP data detected 13 candidate loci under positive selection, however there was no correlation between available environmental parameters and genetic distance. Together, these results suggest that reef restoration efforts should use local sources and utilize existing functional variation among geographic regions in ex situ crossing experiments to improve stress resistance of this species. PMID:29181279

Demographic processes underlying subtle patterns of population structure in the scalloped hammerhead shark, Sphyrna lewini.

PubMed

Nance, Holly A; Klimley, Peter; Galván-Magaña, Felipe; Martínez-Ortíz, Jimmy; Marko, Peter B

2011-01-01

Genetic diversity (θ), effective population size (N(e)), and contemporary levels of gene flow are important parameters to estimate for species of conservation concern, such as the globally endangered scalloped hammerhead shark, Sphyrna lewini. Therefore, we have reconstructed the demographic history of S. lewini across its Eastern Pacific (EP) range by applying classical and coalescent population genetic methods to a combination of 15 microsatellite loci and mtDNA control region sequences. In addition to significant population genetic structure and isolation-by-distance among seven coastal sites between central Mexico and Ecuador, the analyses revealed that all populations have experienced a bottleneck and that all current values of θ are at least an order of magnitude smaller than ancestral θ, indicating large decreases in N(e) (θ = 4N(e)μ), where μ is the mutation rate. Application of the isolation-with-migration (IM) model showed modest but significant genetic connectivity between most sampled sites (point estimates of Nm = 0.1-16.7), with divergence times (t) among all populations significantly greater than zero. Using a conservative (i.e., slow) fossil-based taxon-specific phylogenetic calibration for mtDNA mutation rates, posterior probability distributions (PPDs) for the onset of the decline in N(e) predate modern fishing in this region. The cause of decline over the last several thousand years is unknown but is highly atypical as a post-glacial demographic history. Regardless of the cause, our data and analyses suggest that S. lewini was far more abundant throughout the EP in the past than at present.

Demographic Processes Underlying Subtle Patterns of Population Structure in the Scalloped Hammerhead Shark, Sphyrna lewini

PubMed Central

Nance, Holly A.; Klimley, Peter; Galván-Magaña, Felipe; Martínez-Ortíz, Jimmy; Marko, Peter B.

2011-01-01

Genetic diversity (θ), effective population size (Ne), and contemporary levels of gene flow are important parameters to estimate for species of conservation concern, such as the globally endangered scalloped hammerhead shark, Sphyrna lewini. Therefore, we have reconstructed the demographic history of S. lewini across its Eastern Pacific (EP) range by applying classical and coalescent population genetic methods to a combination of 15 microsatellite loci and mtDNA control region sequences. In addition to significant population genetic structure and isolation-by-distance among seven coastal sites between central Mexico and Ecuador, the analyses revealed that all populations have experienced a bottleneck and that all current values of θ are at least an order of magnitude smaller than ancestral θ, indicating large decreases in Ne (θ = 4Neμ), where μ is the mutation rate. Application of the isolation-with-migration (IM) model showed modest but significant genetic connectivity between most sampled sites (point estimates of Nm = 0.1–16.7), with divergence times (t) among all populations significantly greater than zero. Using a conservative (i.e., slow) fossil-based taxon-specific phylogenetic calibration for mtDNA mutation rates, posterior probability distributions (PPDs) for the onset of the decline in Ne predate modern fishing in this region. The cause of decline over the last several thousand years is unknown but is highly atypical as a post-glacial demographic history. Regardless of the cause, our data and analyses suggest that S. lewini was far more abundant throughout the EP in the past than at present. PMID:21789171

Incorporating harvest rates into the sex-age-kill model for white-tailed deer

USGS Publications Warehouse

Norton, Andrew S.; Diefenbach, Duane R.; Rosenberry, Christopher S.; Wallingford, Bret D.

2013-01-01

Although monitoring population trends is an essential component of game species management, wildlife managers rarely have complete counts of abundance. Often, they rely on population models to monitor population trends. As imperfect representations of real-world populations, models must be rigorously evaluated to be applied appropriately. Previous research has evaluated population models for white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus); however, the precision and reliability of these models when tested against empirical measures of variability and bias largely is untested. We were able to statistically evaluate the Pennsylvania sex-age-kill (PASAK) population model using realistic error measured using data from 1,131 radiocollared white-tailed deer in Pennsylvania from 2002 to 2008. We used these data and harvest data (number killed, age-sex structure, etc.) to estimate precision of abundance estimates, identify the most efficient harvest data collection with respect to precision of parameter estimates, and evaluate PASAK model robustness to violation of assumptions. Median coefficient of variation (CV) estimates by Wildlife Management Unit, 13.2% in the most recent year, were slightly above benchmarks recommended for managing game species populations. Doubling reporting rates by hunters or doubling the number of deer checked by personnel in the field reduced median CVs to recommended levels. The PASAK model was robust to errors in estimates for adult male harvest rates but was sensitive to errors in subadult male harvest rates, especially in populations with lower harvest rates. In particular, an error in subadult (1.5-yr-old) male harvest rates resulted in the opposite error in subadult male, adult female, and juvenile population estimates. Also, evidence of a greater harvest probability for subadult female deer when compared with adult (≥2.5-yr-old) female deer resulted in a 9.5% underestimate of the population using the PASAK model. Because obtaining appropriate sample sizes, by management unit, to estimate harvest rate parameters each year may be too expensive, assumptions of constant annual harvest rates may be necessary. However, if changes in harvest regulations or hunter behavior influence subadult male harvest rates, the PASAK model could provide an unreliable index to population changes. 

SPIDER - I. Sample and galaxy parameters in the grizYJHK wavebands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

La Barbera, F.; de Carvalho, R. R.; de La Rosa, I. G.; Lopes, P. A. A.; Kohl-Moreira, J. L.; Capelato, H. V.

2010-11-01

This is the first paper of a series presenting the Spheroids Panchromatic Investigation in Different Environmental Regions (SPIDER). The sample of spheroids consists of 5080 bright (Mr < -20) early-type galaxies (ETGs), in the redshift range of 0.05 to 0.095, with optical (griz) photometry and spectroscopy from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 6 (SDSS-DR6) and near-infrared (YJHK) photometry from the UKIRT Infrared Deep Sky Survey-Large Area Survey (UKIDSS-LAS) (DR4). We describe how homogeneous photometric parameters (galaxy colours and structural parameters) are derived using grizYJHK wavebands. We find no systematic steepening of the colour-magnitude relation when probing the baseline from g - r to g - K, implying that internal colour gradients drive most of the mass-metallicity relation in ETGs. As far as structural parameters are concerned we find that the mean effective radius of ETGs smoothly decreases, by 30 per cent, from g through K, while no significant dependence on waveband is detected for the axial ratio, Sersic index and a4 parameters. Furthermore, velocity dispersions are remeasured for all the ETGs using STARLIGHT and compared to those obtained by SDSS. The velocity dispersions are rederived using a combination of simple stellar population models as templates, hence accounting for the kinematics of different galaxy stellar components. We compare our (2DPHOT) measurements of total magnitude, effective radius and mean surface brightness with those obtained as part of the SDSS pipeline (PHOTO). Significant differences are found and reported, including comparisons with a third and independent part. A full characterization of the sample completeness in all wavebands is presented, establishing the limits of application of the characteristic parameters presented here for the analysis of the global scaling relations of ETGs.

Genetic parameters for milk fatty acids, milk yield and quality traits of a Holstein cattle population reared under tropical conditions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Information about genetic parameters is essential for selection decisions and genetic evaluation. Those estimates are population specific, but few studies are available for dairy cattle populations reared under tropical and subtropical conditions. Heritability and genetic correlations for milk yield...

A fortran program for Monte Carlo simulation of oil-field discovery sequences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bohling, Geoffrey C.; Davis, J.C.

1993-01-01

We have developed a program for performing Monte Carlo simulation of oil-field discovery histories. A synthetic parent population of fields is generated as a finite sample from a distribution of specified form. The discovery sequence then is simulated by sampling without replacement from this parent population in accordance with a probabilistic discovery process model. The program computes a chi-squared deviation between synthetic and actual discovery sequences as a function of the parameters of the discovery process model, the number of fields in the parent population, and the distributional parameters of the parent population. The program employs the three-parameter log gamma model for the distribution of field sizes and employs a two-parameter discovery process model, allowing the simulation of a wide range of scenarios. ?? 1993.

Collisional radiative model for Ar-O2 mixture plasma with fully relativistic fine structure cross sections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priti, Gangwar, Reetesh Kumar; Srivastava, Rajesh

2018-04-01

A collisional radiative (C-R) model has been developed to diagnose the rf generated Ar-O2 (0%-5%) mixture plasma at low temperatures. Since in such plasmas the most dominant process is an electron impact excitation process, we considered several electron impact fine structure transitions in an argon atom from its ground as well as excited states. The cross-sections for these transitions have been obtained using the reliable fully relativistic distorted wave theory. Processes which account for the coupling of argon with the oxygen molecules have been further added to the model. We couple our model to the optical spectroscopic measurements reported by Jogi et al. [J. Phys. D: Appl. Phys. 47, 335206 (2014)]. The plasma parameters, viz. the electron density (ne) and the electron temperature (Te) as a function of O2 concentration have been obtained using thirteen intense emission lines out of 3p54p → 3p54s transitions observed in their spectroscopic measurements. It is found that as the content of O2 in Ar increases from 0%-5%, Te increases in the range 0.85-1.7 eV, while the electron density decreases from 2.76 × 1012-2.34 × 1011 cm-3. The Ar-3p54s (1si) fine-structure level populations at our extracted plasma parameters are found to be in very good agreement with those obtained from the measurements. Furthermore, we have estimated the individual contributions coming from the ground state, 1si manifolds and cascade contributions to the population of the radiating Ar-3p54p (2pi) states as a function of a trace amount of O2. Such information is very useful to understand the importance of various processes occurring in the plasma.

Genetic Variation in the ND1 Gene and D-loop in Protected and Commercially Exploited European Cisco (Coregonus albula L.) Populations.

PubMed

Kirczuk, Lucyna; Rymaszewska, Anna; Pilecka-Rapacz, Malgorzata; Domagala, Jozef

The European cisco (Coregonus albula L.) is a species with high environmental requirements. The deterioration of environmental conditions in recent decades has decreased its distribution. Currently the species is conserved by stocking, and the few existing natural populations are at risk of extinction. Therefore, contemporary studies involve not only reporting phenotypic parameters, but also determining the genetic structure of the population. This is an important aspect monitored in the C. albula population, which provides information valuable for proper fishing economy. This study included valuable populations from lakes located in Drawa National Park (DNP) and Wigry National Park (WNP), as well as lakes used for commercial fishing. In order to molecularly characterize the European cisco, the control region and NDl gene were sequenced from 48 individuals from 9 populations from lakes throughout northern Poland. Analysis revealed that populations from two park lakes (Marta, Ostrowieckie) are unique. This was also the case for some sequences originating from Lake Wigry. The mean value of genetic diversity was 0.2% within each region and 0.1-0.3% between the investigated regions. The obtained results demonstrated the necessity to strengthen and protect natural populations of the European cisco, which constitute a valuable element of the European ichthyofauna.

Extensive Clonality and Strong Differentiation in the Insular Pacific Tree Santalum insulare: Implications for its Conservation

PubMed Central

LHUILLIER, EMELINE; BUTAUD, JEAN-FRANÇOIS; BOUVET, JEAN-MARC

2006-01-01

• Background and Aims The impact of evolutionary forces on insular systems is particularly exacerbated by the remoteness of islands, strong founder effects, small population size and the influence of biotic and abiotic factors. Patterns of molecular diversity were analysed in an island system with Santalum insulare, a sandalwood species endemic to eastern Polynesia. The aims were to evaluate clonality and to study the genetic diversity and structure of this species, in order to understand the evolutionary process and to define a conservation strategy. • Methods Eight nuclear microsatellites were used to investigate clonality, genetic variation and structure of the French Polynesian sandalwood populations found on ten islands distributed over three archipelagos. • Key Results It was found that 58 % of the 384 trees analysed were clones. The real size of the populations is thus dramatically reduced, with sometimes only one genet producing ramets by root suckering. The diversity parameters were low for islands (nA = 1·5–5·0; HE = 0·28–0·49). No departure from Hardy–Weinberg proportion was observed except within Tahiti island, where a significant excess of homozygotes was noted in the highland population. Genetic structure was characterized by high levels of differentiation between archipelagos (27 % of the total variation) and islands (FST = 0·50). The neighbour-joining tree did not discriminate the three archipelagos but separated the Society archipelago from the other two. • Conclusions This study shows that clonality is a frequent phenomenon in S. insulare. The genetic diversity within populations is lower than the values assessed in species distributed on the mainland, as a consequence of insularity. But this can also be explained by the overexploitation of sandalwood. The differentiation between archipelagos and islands within archipelagos is very high because of the limited gene flow due to oceanic barriers. Delineation of evolutionary significant units and principles for population management are proposed based on this molecular analysis. PMID:16945947

Population structure and fruit production of Pyrus bourgaeana D. are affected by land-use

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arenas-Castro, Salvador; Fernández-Haeger, Juan; Jordano-Barbudo, Diego

2016-11-01

The Iberian wild pear (Pyrus bourgaeana D.) is a rare, fleshy-fruited tree restricted to dehesas and evergreen sclerophyllous Mediterranean forests in the southwestern Iberian Peninsula. It produces palatable fruits and leaves attractive to different species groups, playing an important trophic role in the ecological networks of Mediterranean ecosystems. However, the intensification in the traditional land-use linked to these areas could threaten the stability of the wild pear populations in the short/medium-term. In order to determine the population dynamics of this relevant species in relation to the land-use history, we selected two populations (southern Spain) subjected to different land-use management, dehesa (D) and abandoned olive grove (AOG). An analysis of 122 adult trees reported an overall density of 0.6 trees ha-1. The tree age was estimated by tree-rings analysis in all adult trees. Dendrometric parameters, reproductive features, and germination rates were also measured. Regeneration was clearly biased, as evidenced by the truncated age structure. A low correlation (R2 = 34%) between age and DBH (diameter at breast height) (244 cores analysed) showed that diameter seems not to be a reliable predictor of tree age. Trees from AOG populations had significantly-higher values of DBH, height and crown diameter, but were less productive in terms of fruits and seeds. Nested analysis of variance showed significant variation in fruit production, fruit size, dry mass, water content and seed viability. There were also significant differences in masting. No evidence was found to demonstrate that fruit production, seed viability, or germination rate influence the low natural recruitment of this species. These findings indicate that the traditional agrosilvopastoral practices carried out in the study area for decades, and its subsequent intensification, have strongly influenced the ecological structure of the Iberian wild pear populations at the local scale, which could compromise its stability in the near future.

Admixture and genetic relationships of Mexican Mestizos regarding Latin American and Caribbean populations based on 13 CODIS-STRs.

PubMed

Salazar-Flores, J; Zuñiga-Chiquette, F; Rubi-Castellanos, R; Álvarez-Miranda, J L; Zetina-Hérnandez, A; Martínez-Sevilla, V M; González-Andrade, F; Corach, D; Vullo, C; Álvarez, J C; Lorente, J A; Sánchez-Diz, P; Herrera, R J; Cerda-Flores, R M; Muñoz-Valle, J F; Rangel-Villalobos, H

2015-02-01

Short tandem repeats (STRs) of the combined DNA index system (CODIS) are probably the most employed markers for human identification purposes. STR databases generated to interpret DNA profiles are also helpful for anthropological purposes. In this work, we report admixture, population structure, and genetic relationships of Mexican Mestizos with respect to Latin American and Caribbean populations based on 13 CODIS-STRs. In addition, new STR population data were included from Tijuana, Baja California (Northwest, Mexico), which represents an interesting case of elevated genetic flow as a bordering city with the USA. Inter-population analyses included CODIS-STR data from 11 Mexican Mestizo, 12 Latin American and four Caribbean populations, in addition to European, Amerindian, and African genetic pools as ancestral references. We report allele frequencies and statistical parameters of forensic interest (PD, PE, Het, PIC, typical PI), for 15 STRs in Tijuana, Baja California. This Mexican border city was peculiar by the increase of African ancestry, and by presenting three STRs in Hardy-Weinberg disequilibrium, probably explained by recurrent gene flow. The Amerindian ancestry in Central and Southeast of Mexico was the greatest in Latin America (50.9-68.6%), only comparable with the North of Central America and Ecuador (48.8-56.4%), whereas the European ancestry was prevalent in South America (66.7-75%). The African ancestry in Mexico was the smallest (2.2-6.3%) in Latin America (≥ 2.6%), particularly regarding Brazil (21%), Honduras (62%), and the Caribbean (43.2-65.2%). CODIS-STRs allowed detecting significant population structure in Latin America based on greater presence of European, Amerindian, and African ancestries in Central/South America, Mexican Mestizos, and the Caribbean, respectively. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Population genetic structure analysis and forensic evaluation of Xinjiang Uigur ethnic group on genomic deletion and insertion polymorphisms.

PubMed

Mei, Ting; Shen, Chun-Mei; Liu, Yao-Shun; Meng, Hao-Tian; Zhang, Yu-Dang; Guo, Yu-Xin; Dong, Qian; Wang, Xin-Xin; Yan, Jiang-Wei; Zhu, Bo-Feng; Zhang, Li-Ping

2016-01-01

The Uigur ethnic minority is the largest ethnic group in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region of China, and valuable resource for the study of ethnogeny. The objective of this study was to estimate the genetic diversities and forensic parameters of 30 insertion-deletion loci in Uigur ethnic group from Xinjiang Uigur Autonomous Region of China and to analyze the genetic relationships between Xinjiang Uigur group and other previously published groups based on population data of these loci. All the tested loci were conformed to Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium after Bonferroni correction. The observed and expected heterozygosity ranged from 0.3750 to 0.5515; and 0.4057 to 0.5037, respectively. The combined power of discrimination and probability of exclusion in the group were 0.99999999999940 and 0.9963, respectively. We analyzed the D A distance, interpopulation differentiations and population structure, conducted principal component analysis and neighbor-joining tree based on our studied group and 21 reference groups. The present results indicated that the studied Xinjiang Uigur group (represented our samples from the whole territory of Xinjiang Uigur Autonomous Region) had a close relationships with Urumchi Uigur (represented previously reported samples from Urumchi of Xinjiang) and Kazak groups. The present study may provide novel biological information for the study of population genetics, and can also increase our understanding of the genetic relationships between Xinjiang Uigur group and other groups.

Selection Experiments in the Penna Model for Biological Aging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medeiros, G.; Idiart, M. A.; de Almeida, R. M. C.

We consider the Penna model for biological aging to investigate correlations between early fertility and late life survival rates in populations at equilibrium. We consider inherited initial reproduction ages together with a reproduction cost translated in a probability that mother and offspring die at birth, depending on the mother age. For convenient sets of parameters, the equilibrated populations present genetic variability in what regards both genetically programmed death age and initial reproduction age. In the asexual Penna model, a negative correlation between early life fertility and late life survival rates naturally emerges in the stationary solutions. In the sexual Penna model, selection experiments are performed where individuals are sorted by initial reproduction age from the equilibrated populations and the separated populations are evolved independently. After a transient, a negative correlation between early fertility and late age survival rates also emerges in the sense that populations that start reproducing earlier present smaller average genetically programmed death age. These effects appear due to the age structure of populations in the steady state solution of the evolution equations. We claim that the same demographic effects may be playing an important role in selection experiments in the laboratory.

Population size vs. social connectedness - A gene-culture coevolutionary approach to cumulative cultural evolution.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Yutaka; Ohtsuki, Hisashi; Wakano, Joe Y

2016-10-01

It has long been debated if population size is a crucial determinant of the level of culture. While empirical results are mixed, recent theoretical studies suggest that social connectedness between people may be a more important factor than the size of the entire population. These models, however, do not take into account evolutionary responses of learning strategies determining the mode of transmission and innovation and are hence not suitable for predicting the long-term implications of parameters of interest. In the present paper, to address this issue, we provide a gene-culture coevolution model, in which the microscopic learning process of each individual is explicitly described as a continuous-time stochastic process and time allocation to social and individual learning is allowed to evolve. We have found that social connectedness has a larger impact on the equilibrium level of culture than population size especially when connectedness is weak and population size is large. This result, combined with those of previous culture-only models, points to the importance of studying separate effects of population size and internal social structure to better understand spatiotemporal variation in the level of culture. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Population structure and history of a phenotypically variable teiid lizard (Ameiva chrysolaema) from Hispaniola: the influence of a geologically complex island.

PubMed

Gifford, Matthew E; Powell, Robert; Larson, Allan; Gutberlet, Ronald L

2004-09-01

Ameiva chrysolaema is distributed across the island of Hispaniola in the West Indies. The species is restricted to dry lowlands between major mountain ranges and along the southern and eastern coasts. Phylogenetic and phylogeographic analyses of mtDNA sequence variation from 14 sampling localities identify at least three independent evolutionary lineages, separated from one another by major mountain ranges. Nested clade phylogeographic analysis (NCPA) suggests a complex history of population fragmentation, consistent with geological evidence of seawater incursions into the Azua and Enriquillo basins during the Pliocene/Pleistocene (approximately 1.6 mya). Significantly negative Fu's F(S) values and parameters of mismatch distributions suggest that formerly fragmented populations have recently expanded their ranges. Significantly large average population clade distances (APCD) for two sampling localities in the Azua basin suggest secondary contact at these localities of previously separated populations. The distribution of haplotypes among polymorphic populations of A. chrysolaema suggests that variation in dorsal pattern represents a polymorphism within evolutionary lineages. Ameiva leberi is ecologically indistinguishable from and syntopic with A. chrysolaema. Genetic data suggest that A. leberi is a junior synonym of A. chrysolaema.

Book review: Estimation of parameters for animal populations: A primer for the rest of us

USGS Publications Warehouse

Post van der Burg, Max

2016-01-01

No abstract available.Estimation of Parameters for Animal Populations: A Primer for the Rest of Us. Larkin A. Powell and George A. Gale. 2015. Caught Napping Publications, Lincoln, Nebraska, USA. 239 pages. (http://larkinpowell.wixsite.com/larkinpowell/estimationof-parameters-for-animal-pop). ISBN: 978-329-06151-4.

State-space models’ dirty little secrets: even simple linear Gaussian models can have estimation problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auger-Méthé, Marie; Field, Chris; Albertsen, Christoffer M.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Lewis, Mark A.; Jonsen, Ian D.; Mills Flemming, Joanna

2016-05-01

State-space models (SSMs) are increasingly used in ecology to model time-series such as animal movement paths and population dynamics. This type of hierarchical model is often structured to account for two levels of variability: biological stochasticity and measurement error. SSMs are flexible. They can model linear and nonlinear processes using a variety of statistical distributions. Recent ecological SSMs are often complex, with a large number of parameters to estimate. Through a simulation study, we show that even simple linear Gaussian SSMs can suffer from parameter- and state-estimation problems. We demonstrate that these problems occur primarily when measurement error is larger than biological stochasticity, the condition that often drives ecologists to use SSMs. Using an animal movement example, we show how these estimation problems can affect ecological inference. Biased parameter estimates of a SSM describing the movement of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) result in overestimating their energy expenditure. We suggest potential solutions, but show that it often remains difficult to estimate parameters. While SSMs are powerful tools, they can give misleading results and we urge ecologists to assess whether the parameters can be estimated accurately before drawing ecological conclusions from their results.

Three novel approaches to structural identifiability analysis in mixed-effects models.

PubMed

Janzén, David L I; Jirstrand, Mats; Chappell, Michael J; Evans, Neil D

2016-05-06

Structural identifiability is a concept that considers whether the structure of a model together with a set of input-output relations uniquely determines the model parameters. In the mathematical modelling of biological systems, structural identifiability is an important concept since biological interpretations are typically made from the parameter estimates. For a system defined by ordinary differential equations, several methods have been developed to analyse whether the model is structurally identifiable or otherwise. Another well-used modelling framework, which is particularly useful when the experimental data are sparsely sampled and the population variance is of interest, is mixed-effects modelling. However, established identifiability analysis techniques for ordinary differential equations are not directly applicable to such models. In this paper, we present and apply three different methods that can be used to study structural identifiability in mixed-effects models. The first method, called the repeated measurement approach, is based on applying a set of previously established statistical theorems. The second method, called the augmented system approach, is based on augmenting the mixed-effects model to an extended state-space form. The third method, called the Laplace transform mixed-effects extension, is based on considering the moment invariants of the systems transfer function as functions of random variables. To illustrate, compare and contrast the application of the three methods, they are applied to a set of mixed-effects models. Three structural identifiability analysis methods applicable to mixed-effects models have been presented in this paper. As method development of structural identifiability techniques for mixed-effects models has been given very little attention, despite mixed-effects models being widely used, the methods presented in this paper provides a way of handling structural identifiability in mixed-effects models previously not possible. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Reliability of Difference Scores in Populations and Samples

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zimmerman, Donald W.

2009-01-01

This study was an investigation of the relation between the reliability of difference scores, considered as a parameter characterizing a population of examinees, and the reliability estimates obtained from random samples from the population. The parameters in familiar equations for the reliability of difference scores were redefined in such a way…

Functional Inference of Complex Anatomical Tendinous Networks at a Macroscopic Scale via Sparse Experimentation

PubMed Central

Saxena, Anupam; Lipson, Hod; Valero-Cuevas, Francisco J.

2012-01-01

In systems and computational biology, much effort is devoted to functional identification of systems and networks at the molecular-or cellular scale. However, similarly important networks exist at anatomical scales such as the tendon network of human fingers: the complex array of collagen fibers that transmits and distributes muscle forces to finger joints. This network is critical to the versatility of the human hand, and its function has been debated since at least the 16th century. Here, we experimentally infer the structure (both topology and parameter values) of this network through sparse interrogation with force inputs. A population of models representing this structure co-evolves in simulation with a population of informative future force inputs via the predator-prey estimation-exploration algorithm. Model fitness depends on their ability to explain experimental data, while the fitness of future force inputs depends on causing maximal functional discrepancy among current models. We validate our approach by inferring two known synthetic Latex networks, and one anatomical tendon network harvested from a cadaver's middle finger. We find that functionally similar but structurally diverse models can exist within a narrow range of the training set and cross-validation errors. For the Latex networks, models with low training set error [<4%] and resembling the known network have the smallest cross-validation errors [∼5%]. The low training set [<4%] and cross validation [<7.2%] errors for models for the cadaveric specimen demonstrate what, to our knowledge, is the first experimental inference of the functional structure of complex anatomical networks. This work expands current bioinformatics inference approaches by demonstrating that sparse, yet informative interrogation of biological specimens holds significant computational advantages in accurate and efficient inference over random testing, or assuming model topology and only inferring parameters values. These findings also hold clues to both our evolutionary history and the development of versatile machines. PMID:23144601

Functional inference of complex anatomical tendinous networks at a macroscopic scale via sparse experimentation.

PubMed

Saxena, Anupam; Lipson, Hod; Valero-Cuevas, Francisco J

2012-01-01

In systems and computational biology, much effort is devoted to functional identification of systems and networks at the molecular-or cellular scale. However, similarly important networks exist at anatomical scales such as the tendon network of human fingers: the complex array of collagen fibers that transmits and distributes muscle forces to finger joints. This network is critical to the versatility of the human hand, and its function has been debated since at least the 16(th) century. Here, we experimentally infer the structure (both topology and parameter values) of this network through sparse interrogation with force inputs. A population of models representing this structure co-evolves in simulation with a population of informative future force inputs via the predator-prey estimation-exploration algorithm. Model fitness depends on their ability to explain experimental data, while the fitness of future force inputs depends on causing maximal functional discrepancy among current models. We validate our approach by inferring two known synthetic Latex networks, and one anatomical tendon network harvested from a cadaver's middle finger. We find that functionally similar but structurally diverse models can exist within a narrow range of the training set and cross-validation errors. For the Latex networks, models with low training set error [<4%] and resembling the known network have the smallest cross-validation errors [∼5%]. The low training set [<4%] and cross validation [<7.2%] errors for models for the cadaveric specimen demonstrate what, to our knowledge, is the first experimental inference of the functional structure of complex anatomical networks. This work expands current bioinformatics inference approaches by demonstrating that sparse, yet informative interrogation of biological specimens holds significant computational advantages in accurate and efficient inference over random testing, or assuming model topology and only inferring parameters values. These findings also hold clues to both our evolutionary history and the development of versatile machines.

A Global Picture of the Gamma-Ricker Map: A Flexible Discrete-Time Model with Factors of Positive and Negative Density Dependence.

PubMed

Liz, Eduardo

2018-02-01

The gamma-Ricker model is one of the more flexible and general discrete-time population models. It is defined on the basis of the Ricker model, introducing an additional parameter [Formula: see text]. For some values of this parameter ([Formula: see text], population is overcompensatory, and the introduction of an additional parameter gives more flexibility to fit the stock-recruitment curve to field data. For other parameter values ([Formula: see text]), the gamma-Ricker model represents populations whose per-capita growth rate combines both negative density dependence and positive density dependence. The former can lead to overcompensation and dynamic instability, and the latter can lead to a strong Allee effect. We study the impact of the cooperation factor in the dynamics and provide rigorous conditions under which increasing the Allee effect strength stabilizes or destabilizes population dynamics, promotes or prevents population extinction, and increases or decreases population size. Our theoretical results also include new global stability criteria and a description of the possible bifurcations.

Population Parameters of Blainvilles and Cuviers Beaked Whales

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-30

cetacean populations. Long-term monitoring of beaked whale populations in El Hierro , a nearly pristine habitat far from areas of sonar testing or...marine industry, enables valuable studies of demographic trends and life history dictated mainly by natural parameters. El Hierro is in process of...functioning (expected in 2018-2019), it is essential to continue monitoring the populations in El Hierro to obtain an uninterrupted long-term dataset of

Spatial effects of aboveground biomass on soil ecological parameters and trace gas fluxes in a savannah ecosystem of Mount Kilimanjaro

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Joscha; Gütlein, Adrian; Sierra Cornejo, Natalia; Kiese, Ralf; Hertel, Dietrich; Kuzyakov, Yakov

2015-04-01

The savannah biome is a hotspot for biodiversity and wildlife conservation in Africa and recently got in the focus of research on carbon sequestration. Savannah ecosystems are under strong pressure from climate and land-use change, especially around populous areas like the Mt. Kilimanjaro region. Savannah vegetation in this area consists of grassland with isolated trees and is therefore characterized by high spatial variation of canopy cover, aboveground biomass and root structure. Canopy structure is known to affect microclimate, throughfall and evapotranspiration and thereby controls soil moisture conditions. Consequently, the canopy structure is a major regulator for soil ecological parameters and soil-atmospheric trace gas exchange (CO2, N2O, CH4) in water limited environments. The spatial distribution of these parameters and the connection between above and belowground processes are important to understand and predict ecosystem changes and estimate its vulnerability. Our objective was to determine trends and changes of soil parameters and relate their spatial variability to the vegetation structure. We chose three trees from each of the two most dominant species (Acacia nilotica and Balanites aegyptiaca) in our research area. For each tree, we selected transects with nine sampling points of the same relative distances to the stem. Distances were calculated in relation to the crown radius. At these each sampling point a soil core was taken and separated in 0-10 cm and 10-30 cm depth. We measured soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) storage, microbial biomass carbon C and N, soil respiration as well as root biomass and -density, soil temperature and soil water content. Each tree was characterized by crown spread, leaf area index and basal area. Preliminary results show that C and N stocks decreased about 50% with depth independently of distance to the tree. Soil water content under the tree crown increased with depth while it decreased under grass cover. Microbial Biomass C and N in the upper 10 cm decreased with distance (C: r²=0.22, p<0.001; N: r²=0.3, p<0.001) as well as total soil respiration. This decrease was affected by tree size but independent from tree species. We conclude that savannah ecosystems exhibit a large spatial variability of soil parameters within the upper horizons which is strongly depend on the structure of aboveground biomass.

Trabecular network arrangement within the human patella: how osteoarthritis remodels the 3D trabecular structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoechel, Sebastian; Deyhle, Hans; Toranelli, Mireille; Müller-Gerbl, Magdalena

2016-10-01

Following the principles of "morphology reveals biomechanics", the anatomical structure of the cartilage-osseous interface and the supporting trabecular network show defined adaptation in their architectural properties to physiological loading. In case of a faulty relationship, the ability to support the load diminishes and the onset of osteoarthritis (OA) may arise and disturb the balanced formation and resorption processes. To describe and quantify the changes occurring, 10 human OA patellae were analysed concerning the architectural parameters of the trabecular network within the first five mms by the evaluation of 3Dmicro-CT datasets. The analysed OA-samples showed a strong irregularity for all trabecular parameters across the trabecular network, no regularity in parameter distribution was found. In general, we saw a decrease of material in the OA population as BV/TV, BS/TV, Tb.N and Tb.Th were decreased and the spacing increased. The development into depth showed a logarithmic dependency, which revealed the greatest difference for all parameters within the first mm in comparison to the physiologic samples. The differences decreased towards the 5th mm. The interpretation of the mathematic dependency leads to the conclusion that the main impact of OA is beneath the subchondral bone plate (SBP) and lessens with depth. Next to the clear difference in material, the architectural arrangement is more rod-like and isotropic just beneath the SBP in comparison to the plate-like and more anisotropic physiological arrangement.

Modelling the balance between quiescence and cell death in normal and tumour cell populations.

PubMed

Spinelli, Lorenzo; Torricelli, Alessandro; Ubezio, Paolo; Basse, Britta

2006-08-01

When considering either human adult tissues (in vivo) or cell cultures (in vitro), cell number is regulated by the relationship between quiescent cells, proliferating cells, cell death and other controls of cell cycle duration. By formulating a mathematical description we see that even small alterations of this relationship may cause a non-growing population to start growing with doubling times characteristic of human tumours. Our model consists of two age structured partial differential equations for the proliferating and quiescent cell compartments. Model parameters are death rates from and transition rates between these compartments. The partial differential equations can be solved for the steady-age distributions, giving the distribution of the cells through the cell cycle, dependent on specific model parameter values. Appropriate formulas can then be derived for various population characteristic quantities such as labelling index, proliferation fraction, doubling time and potential doubling time of the cell population. Such characteristic quantities can be estimated experimentally, although with decreasing precision from in vitro, to in vivo experimental systems and to the clinic. The model can be used to investigate the effects of a single alteration of either quiescence or cell death control on the growth of the whole population and the non-trivial dependence of the doubling time and other observable quantities on particular underlying cell cycle scenarios of death and quiescence. The model indicates that tumour evolution in vivo is a sequence of steady-states, each characterised by particular death and quiescence rate functions. We suggest that a key passage of carcinogenesis is a loss of the communication between quiescence, death and cell cycle machineries, causing a defect in their precise, cell cycle dependent relationship.

Statistical and population genetics issues of two Hungarian datasets from the aspect of DNA evidence interpretation.

PubMed

Szabolcsi, Zoltán; Farkas, Zsuzsa; Borbély, Andrea; Bárány, Gusztáv; Varga, Dániel; Heinrich, Attila; Völgyi, Antónia; Pamjav, Horolma

2015-11-01

When the DNA profile from a crime-scene matches that of a suspect, the weight of DNA evidence depends on the unbiased estimation of the match probability of the profiles. For this reason, it is required to establish and expand the databases that reflect the actual allele frequencies in the population applied. 21,473 complete DNA profiles from Databank samples were used to establish the allele frequency database to represent the population of Hungarian suspects. We used fifteen STR loci (PowerPlex ESI16) including five, new ESS loci. The aim was to calculate the statistical, forensic efficiency parameters for the Databank samples and compare the newly detected data to the earlier report. The population substructure caused by relatedness may influence the frequency of profiles estimated. As our Databank profiles were considered non-random samples, possible relationships between the suspects can be assumed. Therefore, population inbreeding effect was estimated using the FIS calculation. The overall inbreeding parameter was found to be 0.0106. Furthermore, we tested the impact of the two allele frequency datasets on 101 randomly chosen STR profiles, including full and partial profiles. The 95% confidence interval estimates for the profile frequencies (pM) resulted in a tighter range when we used the new dataset compared to the previously published ones. We found that the FIS had less effect on frequency values in the 21,473 samples than the application of minimum allele frequency. No genetic substructure was detected by STRUCTURE analysis. Due to the low level of inbreeding effect and the high number of samples, the new dataset provides unbiased and precise estimates of LR for statistical interpretation of forensic casework and allows us to use lower allele frequencies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Norris, John E.; Yong, David; Dotter, Aaron

We investigate the color–magnitude diagram (CMD) of the Carina dwarf spheroidal galaxy using data of Stetson et al. and synthetic CMDs based on isochrones of Dotter et al., in terms of the parameters [Fe/H], age, and [ α /Fe], for the cases when (i) [ α /Fe] is held constant and (ii) [ α /Fe] is varied. The data are well described by four basic epochs of star formation, having [Fe/H] = −1.85, −1.5, −1.2, and ∼−1.15 and ages ∼13, 7, ∼3.5, and ∼1.5 Gyr, respectively (for [ α /Fe] = 0.1, constant [ α /Fe], and [ α /Fe]more » = 0.2, 0.1, −0.2, −0.2, variable [ α /Fe]), with small spreads in [Fe/H] and age of order 0.1 dex and 1–3 Gyr. Within an elliptical radius 13.′1, the mass fractions of the populations, at their times of formation, were (in decreasing age order) 0.34, 0.39, 0.23, and 0.04. This formalism reproduces five observed CMD features (two distinct subgiant branches of old and intermediate-age populations, two younger, main-sequence components, and the small color dispersion on the red giant branch (RGB). The parameters of the youngest population are less certain than those of the others, and given it is less centrally concentrated, it may not be directly related to them. High-resolution spectroscopically analyzed RGB samples appear statistically incomplete compared with those selected using radial velocity, which contain bluer stars comprising ∼5%–10% of the samples. We conjecture these objects may, at least in part, be members of the youngest population. We use the CMD simulations to obtain insight into the population structure of Carina's upper RGB.« less

Evaluation of forensic and anthropological potential of D9S1120 in Mestizos and Amerindian populations from Mexico

PubMed Central

Rangel-Villalobos, Héctor; Sánchez-Gutiérrez, Viviana M; Botello-Ruiz, Miriam; Salazar-Flores, Joel; Martínez-Cortés, Gabriela; Muñoz-Valle, José F; Phillips, Christopher

2012-01-01

Aim To carry out a deeper forensic and anthropological evaluation of the short tandem repeat (STR) D9S1120 in five Mestizo populations and eight Amerindian groups from Mexico. Methods We amplified the STR D9S1120 based on primers and conditions described by Phillips et al, followed by capillary electrophoresis in the genetic analyzer ABI Prism 310. Genotypes were analyzed with the GeneMapper ID software. In each population we estimated statistical parameters of forensic importance and Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Heterozygosity and FST-values were compared with those previously obtained with nine STRs of the Combined DNA Index System (CODIS-STRs). Results Amerindian and Mestizo populations showed high frequencies of the allele 9 and 16, respectively. Population structure analysis (AMOVA) showed a significant differentiation between Amerindian groups (FST = 2.81%; P < 0.0001), larger than between Mestizos (FST = 0.44%; P = 0.187). D9S1120 showed less genetic diversity but better population differentiation estimates than CODIS-STRs between Amerindian groups and between Amerindians and Mestizos, but not between Mestizo groups. Conclusion This study evaluated the ability of D9S1120 to be used for human identification purposes and demonstrated its anthropological potential to differentiate Mestizos and Amerindian populations. PMID:23100204

Collection and characterization of grapevine genetic resources (Vitis vinifera) in the Holy Land, towards the renewal of ancient winemaking practices.

PubMed

Drori, Elyashiv; Rahimi, Oshrit; Marrano, Annarita; Henig, Yakov; Brauner, Hodaya; Salmon-Divon, Mali; Netzer, Yishay; Prazzoli, Maria Lucia; Stanevsky, Maria; Failla, Osvaldo; Weiss, Ehud; Grando, Maria Stella

2017-03-17

The importance and extent of wine consumption in all life aspects at the Holy Land is well documented. The Muslim influence in this region led to the abandonment of winemaking practices, and possible loss of indigenous wine varieties. Here we present a country wide collection of the local grapevine population including wild and cultivated forms, and its characterization by genetic, ampelographic and enological methods. The ampelographic analysis shows clear differences between Sativa and Sylvestris groups in flower, leaf and cluster parameters, and that most Sativa belong to proles orientalis. Genetic population analysis was conducted by analyzing 22 common SSR markers, determining first the unique genotypes, and internally assessing the population's structure, showing the existence of two distinct Sativa and Sylvestris populations, and a third mixed one. Likewise, the relationship between the Israeli grapevine population and grapevine populations in Europe and parts of Asia was investigated, showing that the Israeli Sativa and Sylvestris populations cluster closely together, suggesting a common genetic source. Lastly, the enological characteristics of selected Sativa and Sylvestris genotypes are presented, demonstrating their potential for quality wine production. This research significantly contributes toward the re-establishment of indigenous and traditional local grapevine varieties into the modern international wine industry.

Associations between soil bacterial community structure and nutrient cycling functions in long-term organic farm soils following cover crop and organic fertilizer amendment.

PubMed

Fernandez, Adria L; Sheaffer, Craig C; Wyse, Donald L; Staley, Christopher; Gould, Trevor J; Sadowsky, Michael J

2016-10-01

Agricultural management practices can produce changes in soil microbial populations whose functions are crucial to crop production and may be detectable using high-throughput sequencing of bacterial 16S rRNA. To apply sequencing-derived bacterial community structure data to on-farm decision-making will require a better understanding of the complex associations between soil microbial community structure and soil function. Here 16S rRNA sequencing was used to profile soil bacterial communities following application of cover crops and organic fertilizer treatments in certified organic field cropping systems. Amendment treatments were hairy vetch (Vicia villosa), winter rye (Secale cereale), oilseed radish (Raphanus sativus), buckwheat (Fagopyrum esculentum), beef manure, pelleted poultry manure, Sustane(®) 8-2-4, and a no-amendment control. Enzyme activities, net N mineralization, soil respiration, and soil physicochemical properties including nutrient levels, organic matter (OM) and pH were measured. Relationships between these functional and physicochemical parameters and soil bacterial community structure were assessed using multivariate methods including redundancy analysis, discriminant analysis, and Bayesian inference. Several cover crops and fertilizers affected soil functions including N-acetyl-β-d-glucosaminidase and β-glucosidase activity. Effects, however, were not consistent across locations and sampling timepoints. Correlations were observed among functional parameters and relative abundances of individual bacterial families and phyla. Bayesian analysis inferred no directional relationships between functional activities, bacterial families, and physicochemical parameters. Soil functional profiles were more strongly predicted by location than by treatment, and differences were largely explained by soil physicochemical parameters. Composition of soil bacterial communities was predictive of soil functional profiles. Differences in soil function were better explained using both soil physicochemical test values and bacterial community structure data than using soil tests alone. Pursuing a better understanding of bacterial community composition and how it is affected by farming practices is a promising avenue for increasing our ability to predict the impact of management practices on important soil functions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Epidemic Process over the Commute Network in a Metropolitan Area

PubMed Central

Yashima, Kenta; Sasaki, Akira

2014-01-01

An understanding of epidemiological dynamics is important for prevention and control of epidemic outbreaks. However, previous studies tend to focus only on specific areas, indicating that application to another area or intervention strategy requires a similar time-consuming simulation. Here, we study the epidemic dynamics of the disease-spread over a commute network, using the Tokyo metropolitan area as an example, in an attempt to elucidate the general properties of epidemic spread over a commute network that could be used for a prediction in any metropolitan area. The model is formulated on the basis of a metapopulation network in which local populations are interconnected by actual commuter flows in the Tokyo metropolitan area and the spread of infection is simulated by an individual-based model. We find that the probability of a global epidemic as well as the final epidemic sizes in both global and local populations, the timing of the epidemic peak, and the time at which the epidemic reaches a local population are mainly determined by the joint distribution of the local population sizes connected by the commuter flows, but are insensitive to geographical or topological structure of the network. Moreover, there is a strong relation between the population size and the time that the epidemic reaches this local population and we are able to determine the reason for this relation as well as its dependence on the commute network structure and epidemic parameters. This study shows that the model based on the connection between the population size classes is sufficient to predict both global and local epidemic dynamics in metropolitan area. Moreover, the clear relation of the time taken by the epidemic to reach each local population can be used as a novel measure for intervention; this enables efficient intervention strategies in each local population prior to the actual arrival. PMID:24905831

Complex Population Dynamics and the Coalescent Under Neutrality

PubMed Central

Volz, Erik M.

2012-01-01

Estimates of the coalescent effective population size Ne can be poorly correlated with the true population size. The relationship between Ne and the population size is sensitive to the way in which birth and death rates vary over time. The problem of inference is exacerbated when the mechanisms underlying population dynamics are complex and depend on many parameters. In instances where nonparametric estimators of Ne such as the skyline struggle to reproduce the correct demographic history, model-based estimators that can draw on prior information about population size and growth rates may be more efficient. A coalescent model is developed for a large class of populations such that the demographic history is described by a deterministic nonlinear dynamical system of arbitrary dimension. This class of demographic model differs from those typically used in population genetics. Birth and death rates are not fixed, and no assumptions are made regarding the fraction of the population sampled. Furthermore, the population may be structured in such a way that gene copies reproduce both within and across demes. For this large class of models, it is shown how to derive the rate of coalescence, as well as the likelihood of a gene genealogy with heterochronous sampling and labeled taxa, and how to simulate a coalescent tree conditional on a complex demographic history. This theoretical framework encapsulates many of the models used by ecologists and epidemiologists and should facilitate the integration of population genetics with the study of mathematical population dynamics. PMID:22042576

Sequential updating of a new dynamic pharmacokinetic model for caffeine in premature neonates.

PubMed

Micallef, Sandrine; Amzal, Billy; Bach, Véronique; Chardon, Karen; Tourneux, Pierre; Bois, Frédéric Y

2007-01-01

Caffeine treatment is widely used in nursing care to reduce the risk of apnoea in premature neonates. To check the therapeutic efficacy of the treatment against apnoea, caffeine concentration in blood is an important indicator. The present study was aimed at building a pharmacokinetic model as a basis for a medical decision support tool. In the proposed model, time dependence of physiological parameters is introduced to describe rapid growth of neonates. To take into account the large variability in the population, the pharmacokinetic model is embedded in a population structure. The whole model is inferred within a Bayesian framework. To update caffeine concentration predictions as data of an incoming patient are collected, we propose a fast method that can be used in a medical context. This involves the sequential updating of model parameters (at individual and population levels) via a stochastic particle algorithm. Our model provides better predictions than the ones obtained with models previously published. We show, through an example, that sequential updating improves predictions of caffeine concentration in blood (reduce bias and length of credibility intervals). The update of the pharmacokinetic model using body mass and caffeine concentration data is studied. It shows how informative caffeine concentration data are in contrast to body mass data. This study provides the methodological basis to predict caffeine concentration in blood, after a given treatment if data are collected on the treated neonate.

Extracting temporal and spatial information from remotely sensed data for mapping wildlife habitat: Tucson

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Advised by Marsh, Stuart E.

2002-01-01

The research accomplished in this dissertation used both mathematical and statistical techniques to extract and evaluate measures of landscape temporal dynamics and spatial structure from remotely sensed data for the purpose of mapping wildlife habitat. By coupling the landscape measures gleaned from the remotely sensed data with various sets of animal sightings and population data, effective models of habitat preference were created.Measures of temporal dynamics of vegetation greenness as measured by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration’s Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) satellite were used to effectively characterize and map season specific habitat of the Sonoran pronghorn antelope, as well as produce preliminary models of potential yellow-billed cuckoo habitat in Arizona. Various measures that capture different aspects of the temporal dynamics of the landscape were derived from AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index composite data using three main classes of calculations: basic statistics, standardized principal components analysis, and Fourier analysis. Pronghorn habitat models based on the AVHRR measures correspond visually and statistically to GIS-based models produced using data that represent detailed knowledge of ground-condition.Measures of temporal dynamics also revealed statistically significant correlations with annual estimates of elk population in selected Arizona Game Management Units, suggesting elk respond to regional environmental changes that can be measured using satellite data. Such relationships, once verified and established, can be used to help indirectly monitor the population.Measures of landscape spatial structure derived from IKONOS high spatial resolution (1-m) satellite data using geostatistics effectively map details of Sonoran pronghorn antelope habitat. Local estimates of the nugget, sill, and range variogram parameters calculated within 25 x 25-meter image windows describe the spatial autocorrelation of the image, permitting classification of all pixels into coherent units whose signature graphs exhibit a classic variogram shape. The variogram parameters captured in these signatures have been shown in previous studies to discriminate between different species-specific vegetation associations.The synoptic view of the landscape provided by satellite data can inform resource management efforts. The ability to characterize the spatial structure and temporal dynamics of habitat using repeatable remote sensing data allows closer monitoring of the relationship between a species and its landscape.

Slow electron acoustic double layer (SEADL) structures in bi-ion plasma with trapped electrons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shan, Shaukat Ali; Imtiaz, Nadia

2018-05-01

The properties of ion acoustic double layer (IADL) structures in bi-ion plasma with electron trapping are investigated by using the quasi-potential analysis. The κ-distributed trapped electrons number density expression is truncated to some finite order of the electrostatic potential. By utilizing the reductive perturbation method, a modified Schamel equation which describes the evolution of the slow electron acoustic double layer (SEADL) with the modified speed due to the presence of bi-ion species is investigated. The Sagdeev-like potential has been derived which accounts for the effect of the electron trapping and superthermality in a bi-ion plasma. It is found that the superthermality index, the trapping efficiency of electrons, and ion to electron temperature ratio are the inhibiting parameters for the amplitude of the slow electron acoustic double layers (SEADLs). However, the enhanced population of the cold ions is found to play a supportive role for the low frequency DLs in bi-ion plasmas. The illustrations have been presented with the help of the bi-ion plasma parameters in the Earth's ionosphere F-region.

Numerical equilibrium analysis for structured consumer resource models.

PubMed

de Roos, A M; Diekmann, O; Getto, P; Kirkilionis, M A

2010-02-01

In this paper, we present methods for a numerical equilibrium and stability analysis for models of a size structured population competing for an unstructured resource. We concentrate on cases where two model parameters are free, and thus existence boundaries for equilibria and stability boundaries can be defined in the (two-parameter) plane. We numerically trace these implicitly defined curves using alternatingly tangent prediction and Newton correction. Evaluation of the maps defining the curves involves integration over individual size and individual survival probability (and their derivatives) as functions of individual age. Such ingredients are often defined as solutions of ODE, i.e., in general only implicitly. In our case, the right-hand sides of these ODE feature discontinuities that are caused by an abrupt change of behavior at the size where juveniles are assumed to turn adult. So, we combine the numerical solution of these ODE with curve tracing methods. We have implemented the algorithms for "Daphnia consuming algae" models in C-code. The results obtained by way of this implementation are shown in the form of graphs.

Effect of different temperature-time combinations on physicochemical, microbiological, textural and structural features of sous-vide cooked lamb loins.

PubMed

Roldán, Mar; Antequera, Teresa; Martín, Alberto; Mayoral, Ana Isabel; Ruiz, Jorge

2013-03-01

Lamb loins were subjected to sous-vide cooking at different combinations of temperature (60, 70, and 80 °C) and time (6, 12, and 24 h). Different physicochemical, histological and structural parameters were studied. Increasing cooking temperatures led to higher weight losses and lower moisture contents, whereas the effect of cooking time on these variables was limited. Samples cooked at 60 °C showed the highest lightness and redness, while increasing cooking temperature and cooking time produced higher yellowness values. Most textural variables in a texture profile analysis showed a marked interaction between cooking temperature and time. Samples cooked for 24h showed significantly lower values for most of the studied textural parameters for all the temperatures considered. Connective tissue granulation at 60 °C and gelation at 70 °C were observed in the SEM micrographs. The sous-vide cooking of lamb loins dramatically reduced microbial population even with the less intense heat treatment studied (60 °C-6 h). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

All-Atom Internal Coordinate Mechanics (ICM) Force Field for Hexopyranoses and Glycoproteins.

PubMed

Arnautova, Yelena A; Abagyan, Ruben; Totrov, Maxim

2015-05-12

We present an extension of the all-atom internal-coordinate force field, ICMFF, that allows for simulation of heterogeneous systems including hexopyranose saccharides and glycan chains in addition to proteins. A library of standard glycan geometries containing α- and β-anomers of the most common hexapyranoses, i.e., d-galactose, d-glucose, d-mannose, d-xylose, l-fucose, N -acetylglucosamine, N -acetylgalactosamine, sialic, and glucuronic acids, is created based on the analysis of the saccharide structures reported in the Cambridge Structural Database. The new force field parameters include molecular electrostatic potential-derived partial atomic charges and the torsional parameters derived from quantum mechanical data for a collection of minimal molecular fragments and related molecules. The ϕ/ψ torsional parameters for different types of glycosidic linkages are developed using model compounds containing the key atoms in the full carbohydrates, i.e., glycosidic-linked tetrahydropyran-cyclohexane dimers. Target data for parameter optimization include two-dimensional energy surfaces corresponding to the ϕ/ψ glycosidic dihedral angles in the disaccharide analogues, as determined by quantum mechanical MP2/6-31G** single-point energies on HF/6-31G** optimized structures. To achieve better agreement with the observed geometries of glycosidic linkages, the bond angles at the O-linkage atoms are added to the internal variable set and the corresponding bond bending energy term is parametrized using quantum mechanical data. The resulting force field is validated on glycan chains of 1-12 residues from a set of high-resolution X-ray glycoprotein structures based on heavy atom root-mean-square deviations of the lowest-energy glycan conformations generated by the biased probability Monte Carlo (BPMC) molecular mechanics simulations from the native structures. The appropriate BPMC distributions for monosaccharide-monosaccharide and protein-glycan linkages are derived from the extensive analysis of conformational properties of glycoprotein structures reported in the Protein Data Bank. Use of the BPMC search leads to significant improvements in sampling efficiency for glycan simulations. Moreover, good agreement with the X-ray glycoprotein structures is achieved for all glycan chain lengths. Thus, average/median RMSDs are 0.81/0.68 Å for one-residue glycans and 1.32/1.47 Å for three-residue glycans. RMSD from the native structure for the lowest-energy conformation of the 12-residue glycan chain (PDB ID 3og2) is 1.53 Å. Additionally, results obtained for free short oligosaccharides using the new force field are in line with the available experimental data, i.e., the most populated conformations in solution are predicted to be the lowest energy ones. The newly developed parameters allow for the accurate modeling of linear and branched hexopyranose glycosides in heterogeneous systems.

Multivariate statistical analysis of diffusion imaging parameters using partial least squares: Application to white matter variations in Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Konukoglu, Ender; Coutu, Jean-Philippe; Salat, David H; Fischl, Bruce

2016-07-01

Diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI) is a unique technology that allows the noninvasive quantification of microstructural tissue properties of the human brain in healthy subjects as well as the probing of disease-induced variations. Population studies of dMRI data have been essential in identifying pathological structural changes in various conditions, such as Alzheimer's and Huntington's diseases (Salat et al., 2010; Rosas et al., 2006). The most common form of dMRI involves fitting a tensor to the underlying imaging data (known as diffusion tensor imaging, or DTI), then deriving parametric maps, each quantifying a different aspect of the underlying microstructure, e.g. fractional anisotropy and mean diffusivity. To date, the statistical methods utilized in most DTI population studies either analyzed only one such map or analyzed several of them, each in isolation. However, it is most likely that variations in the microstructure due to pathology or normal variability would affect several parameters simultaneously, with differing variations modulating the various parameters to differing degrees. Therefore, joint analysis of the available diffusion maps can be more powerful in characterizing histopathology and distinguishing between conditions than the widely used univariate analysis. In this article, we propose a multivariate approach for statistical analysis of diffusion parameters that uses partial least squares correlation (PLSC) analysis and permutation testing as building blocks in a voxel-wise fashion. Stemming from the common formulation, we present three different multivariate procedures for group analysis, regressing-out nuisance parameters and comparing effects of different conditions. We used the proposed procedures to study the effects of non-demented aging, Alzheimer's disease and mild cognitive impairment on the white matter. Here, we present results demonstrating that the proposed PLSC-based approach can differentiate between effects of different conditions in the same region as well as uncover spatial variations of effects across the white matter. The proposed procedures were able to answer questions on structural variations such as: "are there regions in the white matter where Alzheimer's disease has a different effect than aging or similar effect as aging?" and "are there regions in the white matter that are affected by both mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer's disease but with differing multivariate effects?" Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Multivariate Statistical Analysis of Diffusion Imaging Parameters using Partial Least Squares: Application to White Matter Variations in Alzheimer’s Disease

PubMed Central

Konukoglu, Ender; Coutu, Jean-Philippe; Salat, David H.; Fischl, Bruce

2016-01-01

Diffusion magnetic resonance imaging (dMRI) is a unique technology that allows the noninvasive quantification of microstructural tissue properties of the human brain in healthy subjects as well as the probing of disease-induced variations. Population studies of dMRI data have been essential in identifying pathological structural changes in various conditions, such as Alzheimer’s and Huntington’s diseases1,2. The most common form of dMRI involves fitting a tensor to the underlying imaging data (known as Diffusion Tensor Imaging, or DTI), then deriving parametric maps, each quantifying a different aspect of the underlying microstructure, e.g. fractional anisotropy and mean diffusivity. To date, the statistical methods utilized in most DTI population studies either analyzed only one such map or analyzed several of them, each in isolation. However, it is most likely that variations in the microstructure due to pathology or normal variability would affect several parameters simultaneously, with differing variations modulating the various parameters to differing degrees. Therefore, joint analysis of the available diffusion maps can be more powerful in characterizing histopathology and distinguishing between conditions than the widely used univariate analysis. In this article, we propose a multivariate approach for statistical analysis of diffusion parameters that uses partial least squares correlation (PLSC) analysis and permutation testing as building blocks in a voxel-wise fashion. Stemming from the common formulation, we present three different multivariate procedures for group analysis, regressing-out nuisance parameters and comparing effects of different conditions. We used the proposed procedures to study the effects of non-demented aging, Alzheimer’s disease and mild cognitive impairment on the white matter. Here, we present results demonstrating that the proposed PLSC-based approach can differentiate between effects of different conditions in the same region as well as uncover spatial variations of effects across the white matter. The proposed procedures were able to answer questions on structural variations such as: “are there regions in the white matter where Alzheimer’s disease has a different effect than aging or similar effect as aging?” and “are there regions in the white matter that are affected by both mild cognitive impairment and Alzheimer’s disease but with differing multivariate effects?” PMID:27103138

Modelling Wolbachia infection in a sex-structured mosquito population carrying West Nile virus.

PubMed

Farkas, József Z; Gourley, Stephen A; Liu, Rongsong; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2017-09-01

Wolbachia is possibly the most studied reproductive parasite of arthropod species. It appears to be a promising candidate for biocontrol of some mosquito borne diseases. We begin by developing a sex-structured model for a Wolbachia infected mosquito population. Our model incorporates the key effects of Wolbachia infection including cytoplasmic incompatibility and male killing. We also allow the possibility of reduced reproductive output, incomplete maternal transmission, and different mortality rates for uninfected/infected male/female individuals. We study the existence and local stability of equilibria, including the biologically relevant and interesting boundary equilibria. For some biologically relevant parameter regimes there may be multiple coexistence steady states including, very importantly, a coexistence steady state in which Wolbachia infected individuals dominate. We also extend the model to incorporate West Nile virus (WNv) dynamics, using an SEI modelling approach. Recent evidence suggests that a particular strain of Wolbachia infection significantly reduces WNv replication in Aedes aegypti. We model this via increased time spent in the WNv-exposed compartment for Wolbachia infected female mosquitoes. A basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is computed for the WNv infection. Our results suggest that, if the mosquito population consists mainly of Wolbachia infected individuals, WNv eradication is likely if WNv replication in Wolbachia infected individuals is sufficiently reduced.

Estimation of effective connectivity via data-driven neural modeling

PubMed Central

Freestone, Dean R.; Karoly, Philippa J.; Nešić, Dragan; Aram, Parham; Cook, Mark J.; Grayden, David B.

2014-01-01

This research introduces a new method for functional brain imaging via a process of model inversion. By estimating parameters of a computational model, we are able to track effective connectivity and mean membrane potential dynamics that cannot be directly measured using electrophysiological measurements alone. The ability to track the hidden aspects of neurophysiology will have a profound impact on the way we understand and treat epilepsy. For example, under the assumption the model captures the key features of the cortical circuits of interest, the framework will provide insights into seizure initiation and termination on a patient-specific basis. It will enable investigation into the effect a particular drug has on specific neural populations and connectivity structures using minimally invasive measurements. The method is based on approximating brain networks using an interconnected neural population model. The neural population model is based on a neural mass model that describes the functional activity of the brain, capturing the mesoscopic biophysics and anatomical structure. The model is made subject-specific by estimating the strength of intra-cortical connections within a region and inter-cortical connections between regions using a novel Kalman filtering method. We demonstrate through simulation how the framework can be used to track the mechanisms involved in seizure initiation and termination. PMID:25506315

Time in tortoiseshell: a bomb radiocarbon-validated chronology in sea turtle scutes.

PubMed

Van Houtan, Kyle S; Andrews, Allen H; Jones, T Todd; Murakawa, Shawn K K; Hagemann, Molly E

2016-01-13

Some of the most basic questions of sea turtle life history are also the most elusive. Many uncertainties surround lifespan, growth rates, maturity and spatial structure, yet these are critical factors in assessing population status. Here we examine the keratinized hard tissues of the hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) carapace and use bomb radiocarbon dating to estimate growth and maturity. Scutes have an established dietary record, yet the large keratin deposits of hawksbills evoke a reliable chronology. We sectioned, polished and imaged posterior marginal scutes from 36 individual hawksbills representing all life stages, several Pacific populations and spanning eight decades. We counted the apparent growth lines, microsampled along growth contours and calibrated Δ(14)C values to reference coral series. We fit von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) models to the results, producing a range of age estimates for each turtle. We find Hawaii hawksbills deposit eight growth lines annually (range 5-14), with model ensembles producing a somatic growth parameter (k) of 0.13 (range 0.1-0.2) and first breeding at 29 years (range 23-36). Recent bomb radiocarbon values also suggest declining trophic status. Together, our results may reflect long-term changes in the benthic community structure of Hawaii reefs, and possibly shed light on the critical population status for Hawaii hawksbills. © 2016 The Author(s).

Time in tortoiseshell: a bomb radiocarbon-validated chronology in sea turtle scutes

PubMed Central

Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Andrews, Allen H.; Jones, T. Todd; Murakawa, Shawn K. K.; Hagemann, Molly E.

2016-01-01

Some of the most basic questions of sea turtle life history are also the most elusive. Many uncertainties surround lifespan, growth rates, maturity and spatial structure, yet these are critical factors in assessing population status. Here we examine the keratinized hard tissues of the hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) carapace and use bomb radiocarbon dating to estimate growth and maturity. Scutes have an established dietary record, yet the large keratin deposits of hawksbills evoke a reliable chronology. We sectioned, polished and imaged posterior marginal scutes from 36 individual hawksbills representing all life stages, several Pacific populations and spanning eight decades. We counted the apparent growth lines, microsampled along growth contours and calibrated Δ14C values to reference coral series. We fit von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) models to the results, producing a range of age estimates for each turtle. We find Hawaii hawksbills deposit eight growth lines annually (range 5–14), with model ensembles producing a somatic growth parameter (k) of 0.13 (range 0.1–0.2) and first breeding at 29 years (range 23–36). Recent bomb radiocarbon values also suggest declining trophic status. Together, our results may reflect long-term changes in the benthic community structure of Hawaii reefs, and possibly shed light on the critical population status for Hawaii hawksbills. PMID:26740617

Namib Desert edaphic bacterial, fungal and archaeal communities assemble through deterministic processes but are influenced by different abiotic parameters.

PubMed

Johnson, Riegardt M; Ramond, Jean-Baptiste; Gunnigle, Eoin; Seely, Mary; Cowan, Don A

2017-03-01

The central Namib Desert is hyperarid, where limited plant growth ensures that biogeochemical processes are largely driven by microbial populations. Recent research has shown that niche partitioning is critically involved in the assembly of Namib Desert edaphic communities. However, these studies have mainly focussed on the Domain Bacteria. Using microbial community fingerprinting, we compared the assembly of the bacterial, fungal and archaeal populations of microbial communities across nine soil niches from four Namib Desert soil habitats (riverbed, dune, gravel plain and salt pan). Permutational multivariate analysis of variance indicated that the nine soil niches presented significantly different physicochemistries (R 2  = 0.8306, P ≤ 0.0001) and that bacterial, fungal and archaeal populations were soil niche specific (R 2  ≥ 0.64, P ≤ 0.001). However, the abiotic drivers of community structure were Domain-specific (P < 0.05), with P, clay and sand fraction, and NH 4 influencing bacterial, fungal and archaeal communities, respectively. Soil physicochemistry and soil niche explained over 50% of the variation in community structure, and communities displayed strong non-random patterns of co-occurrence. Taken together, these results demonstrate that in central Namib Desert soil microbial communities, assembly is principally driven by deterministic processes.

[Genetic diversity and genetic structure of endangered wild Sinopodophyllum emodi by start codon targeted polymorphism].

PubMed

Chen, Da-Xia; Zhao, Ji-Feng; Liu, Xiang; Wang, Chang-Hua; Zhang, Zhi-Wei; Qin, Song-Yun; Zhong, Guo-Yue

2013-01-01

Revealed the genetic diversity level and genetic structure characteristics in Sinopodophyllum emodi, a rare and endangered species in China. We detected the genetic polymorphism within and among six wild populations (45 individuals) by the approach of Start Codon Targeted (SCoT) Polymorphism. The associated genetic parameters were calculated by POP-GENE1.31 and the relationship was constructed based on UPGMA method. A total of 350 bands were scored by 27 primers and 284 bands of them were polymorphic. The average polymorphic bands of each primer were 10.52. At species level, there was a high level of genetic diversity among six populations (PPB = 79.27%, N(e) = 1.332 7, H = 0.210 9 and H(sp) = 0.328 6). At population level, the genetic diversity level was low (PPB = 10.48% (4.00% -23.71%), N(e) = 1.048 7 (1.020 7-1.103 7), H = 0.029 7 (0.012 9-0.063 1), H(pop) = 0.046 2 (0.019 9-0.098 6). The Nei's coefficient of genetic differentiation was 0.841 1, which was consistent with the Shannon's coefficient of genetic differentiation (0.849 4). Two calculated methods all showed that most of the genetic variation existed among populations. The gene flow (N(m) = 0.094 4) was less among populations, indicating that the degree of genetic differentiation was higher. Genetic similarity coefficient were changed from 0.570 8 to 0.978 7. By clustering analysis, the tested populations were divided into two classes and had a tendency that the same geographical origin or material of similar habitats clustered into one group. The genetic diversity of samples of S. emodi is high,which laid a certain foundation for effective protection and improvement of germplasm resources.

Estimation of the Population Susceptibility Against Measles in Slovakia.

PubMed

Zibolenová, Jana; Chladná, Zuzana; Švihrová, Viera; Baška, Tibor; Waczulíková, Iveta; Hudečková, Henrieta

2017-03-01

In Slovakia, thanks to a highly effective vaccination programme, no domestic cases of measles have been reported since 1999. However, there are several outbreaks of measles currently hitting some countries in Europe. Difficulties in reaching the goal of measles elimination make it necessary to monitor the status of the population susceptibility to prevent similar outbreaks in the future. We hypothesize that immunity wanes overtime, which can substantially impact the population susceptibility. This work introduces a model that estimates a proportion of individuals susceptible to measles in the Slovak population in 2015. Our analysis is based on an age-cohort model that incorporates waning immunity, vaccination schedule and changes in demographic structure. The inputs of the model are data on the vaccination coverage, last seroprevalence survey in 2002 and age structure of the population. In a short-term horizon, waning immunity does not affect the estimated proportion of the susceptible population. However, in a long-term horizon, the antibody titers can fall below the level of protection, which would result in a substantial transfer of initially immune individuals to the compartment of the susceptible ones. Incorporating of waning immunity in the cohort model has indicated that the most susceptible cohorts are not-vaccinated youngest children and cohorts born between 1969 and 1986. Applying the model to the current situation shows that people aged 30-45 years and unvaccinated infants represent the most susceptible groups. Model partially replaces missing seroprevalence survey, but, because the parameters of model and phenomenon of waning immunity are not exactly known, we suggest reintroducing the regular national serosurveys in order to empirically determine the level of susceptibility for measles in Slovakia. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

History, geography and host use shape genomewide patterns of genetic variation in the redheaded pine sawfly (Neodiprion lecontei).

PubMed

Bagley, Robin K; Sousa, Vitor C; Niemiller, Matthew L; Linnen, Catherine R

2017-02-01

Divergent host use has long been suspected to drive population differentiation and speciation in plant-feeding insects. Evaluating the contribution of divergent host use to genetic differentiation can be difficult, however, as dispersal limitation and population structure may also influence patterns of genetic variation. In this study, we use double-digest restriction-associated DNA (ddRAD) sequencing to test the hypothesis that divergent host use contributes to genetic differentiation among populations of the redheaded pine sawfly (Neodiprion lecontei), a widespread pest that uses multiple Pinus hosts throughout its range in eastern North America. Because this species has a broad range and specializes on host plants known to have migrated extensively during the Pleistocene, we first assess overall genetic structure using model-based and model-free clustering methods and identify three geographically distinct genetic clusters. Next, using a composite-likelihood approach based on the site frequency spectrum and a novel strategy for maximizing the utility of linked RAD markers, we infer the population topology and date divergence to the Pleistocene. Based on existing knowledge of Pinus refugia, estimated demographic parameters and patterns of diversity among sawfly populations, we propose a Pleistocene divergence scenario for N. lecontei. Finally, using Mantel and partial Mantel tests, we identify a significant relationship between genetic distance and geography in all clusters, and between genetic distance and host use in two of three clusters. Overall, our results indicate that Pleistocene isolation, dispersal limitation and ecological divergence all contribute to genomewide differentiation in this species and support the hypothesis that host use is a common driver of population divergence in host-specialized insects. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Analytical properties of a three-compartmental dynamical demographic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Postnikov, E. B.

2015-07-01

The three-compartmental demographic model by Korotaeyv-Malkov-Khaltourina, connecting population size, economic surplus, and education level, is considered from the point of view of dynamical systems theory. It is shown that there exist two integrals of motion, which enables the system to be reduced to one nonlinear ordinary differential equation. The study of its structure provides analytical criteria for the dominance ranges of the dynamics of Malthus and Kremer. Additionally, the particular ranges of parameters enable the derived general ordinary differential equations to be reduced to the models of Gompertz and Thoularis-Wallace.

The influence of space and time on the evolution of altruistic defence: the case of ant slave rebellion.

PubMed

Metzler, D; Jordan, F; Pamminger, T; Foitzik, S

2016-05-01

How can antiparasite defence traits evolve even if they do not directly benefit their carriers? An example of such an indirect defence is rebellion of enslaved Temnothorax longispinosus ant workers against their social parasite Temnothorax americanus, a slavemaking ant. Ant slaves have been observed to kill their oppressors' offspring, a behaviour from which the sterile slaves cannot profit directly. Parasite brood killing could, however, reduce raiding pressure on related host colonies nearby. We analyse with extensive computer simulations for the Temnothorax slavemaker system under what conditions a hypothetical rebel allele could invade a host population, and in particular, how host-parasite dynamics and population structure influence the rebel allele's success. Exploring a wide range of model parameters, we only found a small number of parameter combinations for which kin selection or multilevel selection could allow a slave rebellion allele to spread in the host population. Furthermore, we did not detect any cases in which the reduction of raiding pressure in the close vicinity of the slavemaker nest would substantially contribute to the inclusive fitness of rebels. This suggests that slave rebellion is not costly and perhaps a side-effect of some other beneficial trait. In some of our simulations, however, even a costly rebellion allele could spread in the population. This was possible when host-parasite interactions led to a metapopulation dynamic with frequent local extinctions and recolonizations of demes by the offspring of few immigrants. © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2016 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.

A phylogeographic investigation of the hybrid origin of a species of swordtail fish from Mexico.

PubMed

Jones, Julia C; Perez-Sato, Juan-Antonio; Meyer, Axel

2012-06-01

Hybrid speciation may contribute significantly to generating biodiversity, but only a few well-documented examples for it exist so far that do not involve polyploidization as a mechanism. The swordtail fish, Xiphophorus clemenciae, shows common hallmarks of a hybrid origin and still overlaps in its current geographic distribution with its putative ancestral species (Xiphophorus hellerii and Xiphophorus maculatus). Xiphophorus clemenciae provides an ideal system for investigating the possible continued genetic interactions between a hybrid and its parental species. Here, we use microsatellite and mitochondrial markers to investigate the population structure of these species of swordtails and search for signs of recent hybridization. Individuals were sampled from 21 localities across the known range of X. clemenciae- the Isthmus of Tehuantepec (IT) Mexico, and several environmental parameters that might represent barriers to dispersal were recorded. The hybridization event that gave rise to X. clemenciae appears to be rather ancient, and a single origin is likely. We find negligible evidence for ongoing hybridization and introgression between the putative ancestral species, because they now occupy distinct ecological niches, and a common haplotype is shared by most populations of X. clemenciae. The population structure within these species shows an isolation-by-distance (IBD) pattern and genetic differentiation between most populations is significant and high. We infer that tectonic evolution in the Isthmus has greatly restricted gene flow between the southern and central IT populations of X. clemenciae and X. helleriii and provide preliminary information to aid in conservation management of this geographically restricted hybrid species, X. clemenciae. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Understanding the genetic effects of recent habitat fragmentation in the context of evolutionary history: Phylogeography and landscape genetics of a southern California endemic Jerusalem cricket (Orthoptera: Stenopelmatidae: Stenopelmatus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Vandergast, A.G.; Bohonak, A.J.; Weissman, D.B.; Fisher, R.N.

2007-01-01

Habitat loss and fragmentation due to urbanization are the most pervasive threats to biodiversity in southern California. Loss of habitat and fragmentation can lower migration rates and genetic connectivity among remaining populations of native species, reducing genetic variability and increasing extinction risk. However, it may be difficult to separate the effects of recent anthropogenic fragmentation from the genetic signature of prehistoric fragmentation due to previous natural geological and climatic changes. To address these challenges, we examined the phylogenetic and population genetic structure of a flightless insect endemic to cismontane southern California, Stenopelmatus 'mahogani' (Orthoptera: Stenopelmatidae). Analyses of mitochondrial DNA sequence data suggest that diversification across southern California began during the Pleistocene, with most haplotypes currently restricted to a single population. Patterns of genetic divergence correlate with contemporary urbanization, even after correcting for (geographical information system) GIS-based reconstructions of fragmentation during the Pleistocene. Theoretical simulations confirm that contemporary patterns of genetic structure could be produced by recent urban fragmentation using biologically reasonable assumptions about model parameters. Diversity within populations was positively correlated with current fragment size, but not prehistoric fragment size, suggesting that the effects of increased drift following anthropogenic fragmentation are already being seen. Loss of genetic connectivity and diversity can hinder a population's ability to adapt to ecological perturbations commonly associated with urbanization, such as habitat degradation, climatic changes and introduced species. Consequently, our results underscore the importance of preserving and restoring landscape connectivity for long-term persistence of low vagility native species. Journal compilation ?? 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Estimation of the genetic diversity in tetraploid alfalfa populations based on RAPD markers for breeding purposes.

PubMed

Nagl, Nevena; Taski-Ajdukovic, Ksenija; Barac, Goran; Baburski, Aleksandar; Seccareccia, Ivana; Milic, Dragan; Katic, Slobodan

2011-01-01

Alfalfa is an autotetraploid, allogamous and heterozygous forage legume, whose varieties are synthetic populations. Due to the complex nature of the species, information about genetic diversity of germplasm used in any alfalfa breeding program is most beneficial. The genetic diversity of five alfalfa varieties, involved in progeny tests at Institute of Field and Vegetable Crops, was characterized based on RAPD markers. A total of 60 primers were screened, out of which 17 were selected for the analysis of genetic diversity. A total of 156 polymorphic bands were generated, with 10.6 bands per primer. Number and percentage of polymorphic loci, effective number of alleles, expected heterozygosity and Shannon's information index were used to estimate genetic variation. Variety Zuzana had the highest values for all tested parameters, exhibiting the highest level of variation, whereas variety RSI 20 exhibited the lowest. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) showed that 88.39% of the total genetic variation was attributed to intra-varietal variance. The cluster analysis for individual samples and varieties revealed differences in their population structures: variety Zuzana showed a very high level of genetic variation, Banat and Ghareh were divided in subpopulations, while Pecy and RSI 20 were relatively uniform. Ways of exploiting the investigated germplasm in the breeding programs are suggested in this paper, depending on their population structure and diversity. The RAPD analysis shows potential to be applied in analysis of parental populations in semi-hybrid alfalfa breeding program in both, development of new homogenous germplasm, and identification of promising, complementary germplasm.

A computational framework for testing arrhythmia marker sensitivities to model parameters in functionally calibrated populations of atrial cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vagos, Márcia R.; Arevalo, Hermenegild; de Oliveira, Bernardo Lino; Sundnes, Joakim; Maleckar, Mary M.

2017-09-01

Models of cardiac cell electrophysiology are complex non-linear systems which can be used to gain insight into mechanisms of cardiac dynamics in both healthy and pathological conditions. However, the complexity of cardiac models can make mechanistic insight difficult. Moreover, these are typically fitted to averaged experimental data which do not incorporate the variability in observations. Recently, building populations of models to incorporate inter- and intra-subject variability in simulations has been combined with sensitivity analysis (SA) to uncover novel ionic mechanisms and potentially clarify arrhythmogenic behaviors. We used the Koivumäki human atrial cell model to create two populations, representing normal Sinus Rhythm (nSR) and chronic Atrial Fibrillation (cAF), by varying 22 key model parameters. In each population, 14 biomarkers related to the action potential and dynamic restitution were extracted. Populations were calibrated based on distributions of biomarkers to obtain reasonable physiological behavior, and subjected to SA to quantify correlations between model parameters and pro-arrhythmia markers. The two populations showed distinct behaviors under steady state and dynamic pacing. The nSR population revealed greater variability, and more unstable dynamic restitution, as compared to the cAF population, suggesting that simulated cAF remodeling rendered cells more stable to parameter variation and rate adaptation. SA revealed that the biomarkers depended mainly on five ionic currents, with noted differences in sensitivities to these between nSR and cAF. Also, parameters could be selected to produce a model variant with no alternans and unaltered action potential morphology, highlighting that unstable dynamical behavior may be driven by specific cell parameter settings. These results ultimately suggest that arrhythmia maintenance in cAF may not be due to instability in cell membrane excitability, but rather due to tissue-level effects which promote initiation and maintenance of reentrant arrhythmia.

Hierarchical demographic approaches for assessing invasion dynamics of non-indigenous species: An example using northern snakehead (Channa argus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jiao, Y.; Lapointe, N.W.R.; Angermeier, P.L.; Murphy, B.R.

2009-01-01

Models of species' demographic features are commonly used to understand population dynamics and inform management tactics. Hierarchical demographic models are ideal for the assessment of non-indigenous species because our knowledge of non-indigenous populations is usually limited, data on demographic traits often come from a species' native range, these traits vary among populations, and traits are likely to vary considerably over time as species adapt to new environments. Hierarchical models readily incorporate this spatiotemporal variation in species' demographic traits by representing demographic parameters as multi-level hierarchies. As is done for traditional non-hierarchical matrix models, sensitivity and elasticity analyses are used to evaluate the contributions of different life stages and parameters to estimates of population growth rate. We applied a hierarchical model to northern snakehead (Channa argus), a fish currently invading the eastern United States. We used a Monte Carlo approach to simulate uncertainties in the sensitivity and elasticity analyses and to project future population persistence under selected management tactics. We gathered key biological information on northern snakehead natural mortality, maturity and recruitment in its native Asian environment. We compared the model performance with and without hierarchy of parameters. Our results suggest that ignoring the hierarchy of parameters in demographic models may result in poor estimates of population size and growth and may lead to erroneous management advice. In our case, the hierarchy used multi-level distributions to simulate the heterogeneity of demographic parameters across different locations or situations. The probability that the northern snakehead population will increase and harm the native fauna is considerable. Our elasticity and prognostic analyses showed that intensive control efforts immediately prior to spawning and/or juvenile-dispersal periods would be more effective (and probably require less effort) than year-round control efforts. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering the hierarchy of parameters in estimating population growth rate and evaluating different management strategies for non-indigenous invasive species. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Accurate macromolecular crystallographic refinement: incorporation of the linear scaling, semiempirical quantum-mechanics program DivCon into the PHENIX refinement package.

PubMed

Borbulevych, Oleg Y; Plumley, Joshua A; Martin, Roger I; Merz, Kenneth M; Westerhoff, Lance M

2014-05-01

Macromolecular crystallographic refinement relies on sometimes dubious stereochemical restraints and rudimentary energy functionals to ensure the correct geometry of the model of the macromolecule and any covalently bound ligand(s). The ligand stereochemical restraint file (CIF) requires a priori understanding of the ligand geometry within the active site, and creation of the CIF is often an error-prone process owing to the great variety of potential ligand chemistry and structure. Stereochemical restraints have been replaced with more robust functionals through the integration of the linear-scaling, semiempirical quantum-mechanics (SE-QM) program DivCon with the PHENIX X-ray refinement engine. The PHENIX/DivCon package has been thoroughly validated on a population of 50 protein-ligand Protein Data Bank (PDB) structures with a range of resolutions and chemistry. The PDB structures used for the validation were originally refined utilizing various refinement packages and were published within the past five years. PHENIX/DivCon does not utilize CIF(s), link restraints and other parameters for refinement and hence it does not make as many a priori assumptions about the model. Across the entire population, the method results in reasonable ligand geometries and low ligand strains, even when the original refinement exhibited difficulties, indicating that PHENIX/DivCon is applicable to both single-structure and high-throughput crystallography.

Geographic location, network patterns and population distribution of rural settlements in Greece

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asimakopoulos, Avraam; Mogios, Emmanuel; Xenikos, Dimitrios G.

2016-10-01

Our work addresses the problem of how social networks are embedded in space, by studying the spread of human population over complex geomorphological terrain. We focus on villages or small cities up to a few thousand inhabitants located in mountainous areas in Greece. This terrain presents a familiar tree-like structure of valleys and land plateaus. Cities are found more often at lower altitudes and exhibit preference on south orientation. Furthermore, the population generally avoids flat land plateaus and river beds, preferring locations slightly uphill, away from the plateau edge. Despite the location diversity regarding geomorphological parameters, we find certain quantitative norms when we examine location and population distributions relative to the (man-made) transportation network. In particular, settlements at radial distance ℓ away from road network junctions have the same mean altitude, practically independent of ℓ ranging from a few meters to 10 km. Similarly, the distribution of the settlement population at any given ℓ is the same for all ℓ. Finally, the cumulative distribution of the number of rural cities n(ℓ) is fitted to the Weibull distribution, suggesting that human decisions for creating settlements could be paralleled to mechanisms typically attributed to this particular statistical distribution.

Sex change and effective population size: implications for population genetic studies in marine fish.

PubMed

Coscia, I; Chopelet, J; Waples, R S; Mann, B Q; Mariani, S

2016-10-01

Large variance in reproductive success is the primary factor that reduces effective population size (Ne) in natural populations. In sequentially hermaphroditic (sex-changing) fish, the sex ratio is typically skewed and biased towards the 'first' sex, while reproductive success increases considerably after sex change. Therefore, sex-changing fish populations are theoretically expected to have lower Ne than gonochorists (separate sexes), assuming all other parameters are essentially equal. In this study, we estimate Ne from genetic data collected from two ecologically similar species living along the eastern coast of South Africa: one gonochoristic, the 'santer' sea bream Cheimerius nufar, and one protogynous (female-first) sex changer, the 'slinger' sea bream Chrysoblephus puniceus. For both species, no evidence of genetic structuring, nor significant variation in genetic diversity, was found in the study area. Estimates of contemporary Ne were significantly lower in the protogynous species, but the same pattern was not apparent over historical timescales. Overall, our results show that sequential hermaphroditism may affect Ne differently over varying time frames, and that demographic signatures inferred from genetic markers with different inheritance modes also need to be interpreted cautiously, in relation to sex-changing life histories.

A study of the dynamics of multi-player games on small networks using territorial interactions.

PubMed

Broom, Mark; Lafaye, Charlotte; Pattni, Karan; Rychtář, Jan

2015-12-01

Recently, the study of structured populations using models of evolutionary processes on graphs has begun to incorporate a more general type of interaction between individuals, allowing multi-player games to be played among the population. In this paper, we develop a birth-death dynamics for use in such models and consider the evolution of populations for special cases of very small graphs where we can easily identify all of the population states and carry out exact analyses. To do so, we study two multi-player games, a Hawk-Dove game and a public goods game. Our focus is on finding the fixation probability of an individual from one type, cooperator or defector in the case of the public goods game, within a population of the other type. We compare this value for both games on several graphs under different parameter values and assumptions, and identify some interesting general features of our model. In particular there is a very close relationship between the fixation probability and the mean temperature, with high temperatures helping fitter individuals and punishing unfit ones and so enhancing selection, whereas low temperatures give a levelling effect which suppresses selection.

[Natural selection associated with color vision defects in some population groups of Eurasia].

PubMed

Evsiukov, A N

2014-01-01

Fitness coefficients and other quantitative parameters of selection associated with the generalized color blindness gene CB+ were obtained for three ethnogeographic population groups, including Belarusians from Belarus, ethnic populations of the Volga-Ural region, and ethnic populations of Siberia and the Far East of Russia. All abnormalities encoded by the OPN1LW and OPN1MW loci were treated as deviations from normal color perception. Coefficients were estimated from an approximation of the observed CB+ frequency distributions to the theoretical stationary distribution for the Wright island model. This model takes into account the pressure of migrations, selection, and random genetic drift, while the selection parameters are represented in the form of the distribution parameters. In the populations of Siberia and Far East, directional selection in favor of normal color vision and the corresponding allele CB- was observed. In the Belarusian and ethnic populations of the Volga-Ural region, stabilizing selection was observed. The selection intensity constituted 0.03 in the Belarusian; 0.22 in the ethnic populations of the Volga-Ural region; and 0.24 in ethnic populations of Siberia and Far East.

Scaling relations and the fundamental line of the local group dwarf galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woo, Joanna; Courteau, Stéphane; Dekel, Avishai

2008-11-01

We study the scaling relations between global properties of dwarf galaxies in the local group. In addition to quantifying the correlations between pairs of variables, we explore the `shape' of the distribution of galaxies in log parameter space using standardized principal component analysis, the analysis is performed first in the 3D structural parameter space of stellar mass M*, internal velocity V and characteristic radius R* (or surface brightness μ*). It is then extended to a 4D space that includes a stellar population parameter such as metallicity Z or star formation rate . We find that the local group dwarfs basically define a one-parameter `fundamental line' (FL), primarily driven by stellar mass, M*. A more detailed inspection reveals differences between the star formation properties of dwarf irregulars (dI's) and dwarf ellipticals (dE's), beyond the tendency of the latter to be more massive. In particular, the metallicities of dI's are typically lower by a factor of 3 at a given M* and they grow faster with increasing M*, showing a tighter FL in the 4D space for the dE's. The structural scaling relations of dI's resemble those of the more massive spirals, but the dI's have lower star formation rates for a given M* which also grow faster with increasing M*. On the other hand, the FL of the dE's departs from the fundamental plane of bigger ellipticals. While the one-parameter nature of the FL and the associated slopes of the scaling relations are consistent with the general predictions of supernova feedback from Dekel & Woo, the differences between the FL's of the dE's and the dI's remain a challenge and should serve as a guide for the secondary physical processes responsible for these two types.

Quantitative tissue parameters of Achilles tendon and plantar fascia in healthy subjects using a handheld myotonometer.

PubMed

Orner, Sarah; Kratzer, Wolfgang; Schmidberger, Julian; Grüner, Beate

2018-01-01

The aim of the study was to examine the quantitative tissue properties of the Achilles tendon and plantar fascia using a handheld, non-invasive MyotonPRO device, in order to generate normal values and examine the biomechanical relationship of both structures. Prospective study of a large, healthy sample population. The study sample included 207 healthy subjects (87 males and 120 females) for the Achilles tendon and 176 healthy subjects (73 males and 103 females) for the plantar fascia. For the correlations of the tissue parameters of the Achilles tendon and plantar fascia an intersection of both groups was formed which included 150 healthy subjects (65 males and 85 females). All participants were measured in a prone position. Consecutive measurements of the Achilles tendon and plantar fascia were performed by MyotonPRO device at defined sites. For the left and right Achilles tendons and plantar fasciae all five MyotonPRO parameters (Frequency [Hz], Decrement, Stiffness [N/m], Creep and Relaxation Time [ms]) were calculated of healthy males and females. The correlation of the tissue parameters of the Achilles tendon and plantar fascia showed a significant positive correlation of all parameters on the left as well as on the right side. The MyotonPRO is a feasible device for easy measurement of passive tissue properties of the Achilles tendon and plantar fascia in a clinical setting. The generated normal values of the Achilles tendon and plantar fascia are important for detecting abnormalities in patients with Achilles tendinopathy or plantar fasciitis in the future. Biomechanically, both structures are positively correlated. This may provide new aspects in the diagnostics and therapy of plantar fasciitis and Achilles tendinopathy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of nonthermal electrons on the propagation characteristics and stability of two-dimensional nonlinear electrostatic coherent structures in relativistic electron positron ion plasmas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Masood, W.; National Centre for Physics; Rizvi, H.

2011-06-15

Two-dimensional propagation of nonlinear ion acoustic shock and solitary waves in an unmagnetized plasma consisting of nonthermal electrons, Boltzmannian positrons, and singly charged hot ions streaming with relativistic velocities are investigated. The system of fluid equations is reduced to Kadomtsev-Petviashvili-Burgers and Kadomtsev-Petviashvili (KP) equations in the limit of small amplitude perturbation. The dependence of the ion acoustic shock and solitary waves on various plasma parameters are explored in detail. Interestingly, it is observed that increasing the nonthermal electron population increases the wave dispersion which enervates the strength of the ion acoustic shock wave; however, the same effect leads to anmore » enhancement of the soliton amplitude due to the absence of dissipation in the KP equation. The present investigation may be useful to understand the two-dimensional propagation characteristics of small but finite amplitude localized shock and solitary structures in planetary magnetospheres and auroral plasmas where nonthermal populations of electrons have been observed by several satellite missions.« less

The effect of hubs and shortcuts on fixation time in evolutionary graphs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Askari, Marziyeh; Moradi Miraghaei, Zeinab; Aghababaei Samani, Keivan

2017-07-01

How can a new species (like a gene, an idea, or a strategy) take over the whole of a population? This process, which is called fixation, is considerably affected by the structure of the population. There are two key quantities to quantify the fixation process, namely fixation probability and fixation time. Fixation probability has been vastly studied in recent years, but fixation time has not been completely explored, yet. This is because the discovery of a relationship between fixation time and network structure is quite challenging. In this paper we investigate this relationship for a number of well-known complex networks. We show that the existence of a few high-degree nodes (hubs) in the network results in a longer fixation time, while the existence of a few short-cuts decreases the fixation time. Furthermore we investigate the effect of network parameters, such as connection probability, on fixation time. We show that by increasing the density of edges, fixation time decreases for all types of studied networks. Finally, we survey the effect of rewiring probability in a Watts-Strogatz network on fixation time.

Von Bertalanffy's dynamics under a polynomial correction: Allee effect and big bang bifurcation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonel Rocha, J.; Taha, A. K.; Fournier-Prunaret, D.

2016-02-01

In this work we consider new one-dimensional populational discrete dynamical systems in which the growth of the population is described by a family of von Bertalanffy's functions, as a dynamical approach to von Bertalanffy's growth equation. The purpose of introducing Allee effect in those models is satisfied under a correction factor of polynomial type. We study classes of von Bertalanffy's functions with different types of Allee effect: strong and weak Allee's functions. Dependent on the variation of four parameters, von Bertalanffy's functions also includes another class of important functions: functions with no Allee effect. The complex bifurcation structures of these von Bertalanffy's functions is investigated in detail. We verified that this family of functions has particular bifurcation structures: the big bang bifurcation of the so-called “box-within-a-box” type. The big bang bifurcation is associated to the asymptotic weight or carrying capacity. This work is a contribution to the study of the big bang bifurcation analysis for continuous maps and their relationship with explosion birth and extinction phenomena.

Empirical valence bond models for reactive potential energy surfaces: a parallel multilevel genetic program approach.

PubMed

Bellucci, Michael A; Coker, David F

2011-07-28

We describe a new method for constructing empirical valence bond potential energy surfaces using a parallel multilevel genetic program (PMLGP). Genetic programs can be used to perform an efficient search through function space and parameter space to find the best functions and sets of parameters that fit energies obtained by ab initio electronic structure calculations. Building on the traditional genetic program approach, the PMLGP utilizes a hierarchy of genetic programming on two different levels. The lower level genetic programs are used to optimize coevolving populations in parallel while the higher level genetic program (HLGP) is used to optimize the genetic operator probabilities of the lower level genetic programs. The HLGP allows the algorithm to dynamically learn the mutation or combination of mutations that most effectively increase the fitness of the populations, causing a significant increase in the algorithm's accuracy and efficiency. The algorithm's accuracy and efficiency is tested against a standard parallel genetic program with a variety of one-dimensional test cases. Subsequently, the PMLGP is utilized to obtain an accurate empirical valence bond model for proton transfer in 3-hydroxy-gamma-pyrone in gas phase and protic solvent. © 2011 American Institute of Physics

Structure-function clustering in multiplex brain networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crofts, J. J.; Forrester, M.; O'Dea, R. D.

2016-10-01

A key question in neuroscience is to understand how a rich functional repertoire of brain activity arises within relatively static networks of structurally connected neural populations: elucidating the subtle interactions between evoked “functional connectivity” and the underlying “structural connectivity” has the potential to address this. These structural-functional networks (and neural networks more generally) are more naturally described using a multilayer or multiplex network approach, in favour of standard single-layer network analyses that are more typically applied to such systems. In this letter, we address such issues by exploring important structure-function relations in the Macaque cortical network by modelling it as a duplex network that comprises an anatomical layer, describing the known (macro-scale) network topology of the Macaque monkey, and a functional layer derived from simulated neural activity. We investigate and characterize correlations between structural and functional layers, as system parameters controlling simulated neural activity are varied, by employing recently described multiplex network measures. Moreover, we propose a novel measure of multiplex structure-function clustering which allows us to investigate the emergence of functional connections that are distinct from the underlying cortical structure, and to highlight the dependence of multiplex structure on the neural dynamical regime.

Designing conservation strategies to preserve the genetic diversity of Astragalus edulis Bunge, an endangered species from western Mediterranean region.

PubMed

Peñas, Julio; Barrios, Sara; Bobo-Pinilla, Javier; Lorite, Juan; Martínez-Ortega, M Montserrat

2016-01-01

Astragalus edulis (Fabaceae) is an endangered annual species from the western Mediterranean region that colonized the SE Iberian Peninsula, NE and SW Morocco, and the easternmost Macaronesian islands (Lanzarote and Fuerteventura). Although in Spain some conservation measures have been adopted, it is still necessary to develop an appropriate management plan to preserve genetic diversity across the entire distribution area of the species. Our main objective was to use population genetics as well as ecological and phylogeographic data to select Relevant Genetic Units for Conservation (RGUCs) as the first step in designing conservation plans for A. edulis. We identified six RGUCs for in situ conservation, based on estimations of population genetic structure and probabilities of loss of rare alleles. Additionally, further population parameters, i.e. occupation area, population size, vulnerability, legal status of the population areas, and the historical haplotype distribution, were considered in order to establish which populations deserve conservation priority. Three populations from the Iberian Peninsula, two from Morocco, and one from the Canary Islands represent the total genetic diversity of the species and the rarest allelic variation. Ex situ conservation is recommended to complement the preservation of A. edulis, given that effective in situ population protection is not feasible in all cases. The consideration of complementary phylogeographic and ecological data is useful for management efforts to preserve the evolutionary potential of the species.

Designing conservation strategies to preserve the genetic diversity of Astragalus edulis Bunge, an endangered species from western Mediterranean region

PubMed Central

Barrios, Sara; Bobo-Pinilla, Javier; Lorite, Juan; Martínez-Ortega, M. Montserrat

2016-01-01

Astragalus edulis (Fabaceae) is an endangered annual species from the western Mediterranean region that colonized the SE Iberian Peninsula, NE and SW Morocco, and the easternmost Macaronesian islands (Lanzarote and Fuerteventura). Although in Spain some conservation measures have been adopted, it is still necessary to develop an appropriate management plan to preserve genetic diversity across the entire distribution area of the species. Our main objective was to use population genetics as well as ecological and phylogeographic data to select Relevant Genetic Units for Conservation (RGUCs) as the first step in designing conservation plans for A. edulis. We identified six RGUCs for in situ conservation, based on estimations of population genetic structure and probabilities of loss of rare alleles. Additionally, further population parameters, i.e. occupation area, population size, vulnerability, legal status of the population areas, and the historical haplotype distribution, were considered in order to establish which populations deserve conservation priority. Three populations from the Iberian Peninsula, two from Morocco, and one from the Canary Islands represent the total genetic diversity of the species and the rarest allelic variation. Ex situ conservation is recommended to complement the preservation of A. edulis, given that effective in situ population protection is not feasible in all cases. The consideration of complementary phylogeographic and ecological data is useful for management efforts to preserve the evolutionary potential of the species. PMID:26844014

Dealing with AFLP genotyping errors to reveal genetic structure in Plukenetia volubilis (Euphorbiaceae) in the Peruvian Amazon

PubMed Central

Vašek, Jakub; Viehmannová, Iva; Ocelák, Martin; Cachique Huansi, Danter; Vejl, Pavel

2017-01-01

An analysis of the population structure and genetic diversity for any organism often depends on one or more molecular marker techniques. Nonetheless, these techniques are not absolutely reliable because of various sources of errors arising during the genotyping process. Thus, a complex analysis of genotyping error was carried out with the AFLP method in 169 samples of the oil seed plant Plukenetia volubilis L. from small isolated subpopulations in the Peruvian Amazon. Samples were collected in nine localities from the region of San Martin. Analysis was done in eight datasets with a genotyping error from 0 to 5%. Using eleven primer combinations, 102 to 275 markers were obtained according to the dataset. It was found that it is only possible to obtain the most reliable and robust results through a multiple-level filtering process. Genotyping error and software set up influence both the estimation of population structure and genetic diversity, where in our case population number (K) varied between 2–9 depending on the dataset and statistical method used. Surprisingly, discrepancies in K number were caused more by statistical approaches than by genotyping errors themselves. However, for estimation of genetic diversity, the degree of genotyping error was critical because descriptive parameters (He, FST, PLP 5%) varied substantially (by at least 25%). Due to low gene flow, P. volubilis mostly consists of small isolated subpopulations (ΦPT = 0.252–0.323) with some degree of admixture given by socio-economic connectivity among the sites; a direct link between the genetic and geographic distances was not confirmed. The study illustrates the successful application of AFLP to infer genetic structure in non-model plants. PMID:28910307

European Invasion of North American Pinus strobus at Large and Fine Scales: High Genetic Diversity and Fine-Scale Genetic Clustering over Time in the Adventive Range

PubMed Central

Mandák, Bohumil; Hadincová, Věroslava; Mahelka, Václav; Wildová, Radka

2013-01-01

Background North American Pinus strobus is a highly invasive tree species in Central Europe. Using ten polymorphic microsatellite loci we compared various aspects of the large-scale genetic diversity of individuals from 30 sites in the native distribution range with those from 30 sites in the European adventive distribution range. To investigate the ascertained pattern of genetic diversity of this intercontinental comparison further, we surveyed fine-scale genetic diversity patterns and changes over time within four highly invasive populations in the adventive range. Results Our data show that at the large scale the genetic diversity found within the relatively small adventive range in Central Europe, surprisingly, equals the diversity found within the sampled area in the native range, which is about thirty times larger. Bayesian assignment grouped individuals into two genetic clusters separating North American native populations from the European, non-native populations, without any strong genetic structure shown over either range. In the case of the fine scale, our comparison of genetic diversity parameters among the localities and age classes yielded no evidence of genetic diversity increase over time. We found that SGS differed across age classes within the populations under study. Old trees in general completely lacked any SGS, which increased over time and reached its maximum in the sapling stage. Conclusions Based on (1) the absence of difference in genetic diversity between the native and adventive ranges, together with the lack of structure in the native range, and (2) the lack of any evidence of any temporal increase in genetic diversity at four highly invasive populations in the adventive range, we conclude that population amalgamation probably first happened in the native range, prior to introduction. In such case, there would have been no need for multiple introductions from previously isolated populations, but only several introductions from genetically diverse populations. PMID:23874648

Anthropometric measurements in Iranian men.

PubMed

Gharehdaghi, Jaber; Baazm, Maryam; Ghadipasha, Masoud; Solhi, Sadra; Toutounchian, Farhoud

2018-01-01

There is inevitable need for data regarding anthropometric measurements of each community's population. These anthropometric data have various applications, including health assessment, industrial designing, plastic & orthopedic surgery, nutritional studies, anatomical studies and forensic medicine investigations. Anthropometric parameters vary from race to race throughout the world, hence providing an anthropometric profile model of residents of different geographic regions seems to be necessary. To our knowledge, there is no report of bone parameters of the Iranian population. The present study was carried out to provide data on anthropomorphic bone parameters of the Iranian population, as a basis for future relevant studies. We calculated most of the known anthropometric parameters including skull, mandible, clavicle, scapula, humerus, radius, ulna, sacrum, hip, femur, tibia and fibula of 225 male corpses during a period of 2 years (2014-2016). Data expression was done as mean ± standard deviation. The results consist the first documented report on anthropometric bone measurement profile of Iranian male population, that can be considered a valuable source of data for future research on Iranian population in this regard. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd and Faculty of Forensic and Legal Medicine. All rights reserved.

Bayesian population analysis of a washin-washout physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for acetone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moerk, Anna-Karin, E-mail: anna-karin.mork@ki.s; Jonsson, Fredrik; Pharsight, a Certara company, St. Louis, MO

2009-11-01

The aim of this study was to derive improved estimates of population variability and uncertainty of physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model parameters, especially of those related to the washin-washout behavior of polar volatile substances. This was done by optimizing a previously published washin-washout PBPK model for acetone in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The sensitivity of the model parameters was investigated by creating four different prior sets, where the uncertainty surrounding the population variability of the physiological model parameters was given values corresponding to coefficients of variation of 1%, 25%, 50%, and 100%, respectively. The PBPKmore » model was calibrated to toxicokinetic data from 2 previous studies where 18 volunteers were exposed to 250-550 ppm of acetone at various levels of workload. The updated PBPK model provided a good description of the concentrations in arterial, venous, and exhaled air. The precision of most of the model parameter estimates was improved. New information was particularly gained on the population distribution of the parameters governing the washin-washout effect. The results presented herein provide a good starting point to estimate the target dose of acetone in the working and general populations for risk assessment purposes.« less

Global stability of an age-structure epidemic model with imperfect vaccination and relapse

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Bin; Huo, Hai-Feng; Xiang, Hong

2017-11-01

A new age-structured epidemic model with imperfect vaccination and relapse is proposed. The total population of our model is partitioned into five subclasses: susceptible class S, vaccinated class V, exposed class E, infectious class I and removed class R. Age-structures are equipped with in exposed and recovered classes. Furthermore, imperfect vaccination is also introduced in our model. The basic reproduction number R0 is defined and proved as a threshold parameter of the model. Asymptotic smoothness of solutions and uniform persistence of the system are showed via reformulating the system as a system of Volterra integral equation. Furthermore, by constructing proper Volterra-type Lyapunov functional we get when R0 < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. When R0 > 1, the endemic equilibrium is globally stable. Our results show that to increase the efficiency of vaccination and reduce influence of relapse are vital essential for controlling epidemic.

Pattern formation in individual-based systems with time-varying parameters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashcroft, Peter; Galla, Tobias

2013-12-01

We study the patterns generated in finite-time sweeps across symmetry-breaking bifurcations in individual-based models. Similar to the well-known Kibble-Zurek scenario of defect formation, large-scale patterns are generated when model parameters are varied slowly, whereas fast sweeps produce a large number of small domains. The symmetry breaking is triggered by intrinsic noise, originating from the discrete dynamics at the microlevel. Based on a linear-noise approximation, we calculate the characteristic length scale of these patterns. We demonstrate the applicability of this approach in a simple model of opinion dynamics, a model in evolutionary game theory with a time-dependent fitness structure, and a model of cell differentiation. Our theoretical estimates are confirmed in simulations. In further numerical work, we observe a similar phenomenon when the symmetry-breaking bifurcation is triggered by population growth.

Diversity and distribution of Actinobacteria associated with reef coral Porites lutea

PubMed Central

Kuang, Weiqi; Li, Jie; Zhang, Si; Long, Lijuan

2015-01-01

Actinobacteria is a ubiquitous major group in coral holobiont. The diversity and spatial and temporal distribution of actinobacteria have been rarely documented. In this study, diversity of actinobacteria associated with mucus, tissue and skeleton of Porites lutea and in the surrounding seawater were examined every 3 months for 1 year on Luhuitou fringing reef. The population structures of the P. lutea-associated actinobacteria were analyzed using phylogenetic analysis of 16S rRNA gene clone libraries, which demonstrated highly diverse actinobacteria profiles in P. lutea. A total of 25 described families and 10 unnamed families were determined in the populations, and 12 genera were firstly detected in corals. The Actinobacteria diversity was significantly different between the P. lutea and the surrounding seawater. Only 10 OTUs were shared by the seawater and coral samples. Redundancy and hierarchical cluster analyses were performed to analyze the correlation between the variations of actinobacteria population within the divergent compartments of P. lutea, seasonal changes, and environmental factors. The actinobacteria communities in the same coral compartment tended to cluster together. Even so, an extremely small fraction of OTUs was common in all three P. lutea compartments. Analysis of the relationship between actinobacteria assemblages and the environmental parameters showed that several genera were closely related to specific environmental factors. This study highlights that coral-associated actinobacteria populations are highly diverse, and spatially structured within P. lutea, and they are distinct from which in the ambient seawater. PMID:26539166

Individual-based analysis opens new insights into understanding population structure and animal behaviour.

PubMed

Planes, Serge; Lemer, Sarah

2011-01-01

Studying the movement of individuals in the wild has always been a challenge in ecology. However, estimating such movement is essential in life sciences as it is the base-line for evaluating connectivity, a major component in developing management and conservation plans. Furthermore, movement, or migration, is an essential parameter in population genetics, as it directly affects genetic differentiation. The development of highly variable markers has allowed genetic discrimination between individuals within populations and at larger scales, and the availability of high-throughput technologies means that many samples and hence many individuals can be screened. These advances mean that we can now use genetic identification for tracking individuals, and hence follow both survival and reproductive output through the life cycle. The paper by Morrissey & Ferguson (2011, this issue) is a demonstration of this new capability, as authors were able to infer the movement of salmonid fish initially captured as juveniles, and later as reproductively mature adults.

Adaptive modeling of viral diseases in bats with a focus on rabies.

PubMed

Dimitrov, Dobromir T; Hallam, Thomas G; Rupprecht, Charles E; McCracken, Gary F

2008-11-07

Many emerging and reemerging viruses, such as rabies, SARS, Marburg, and Ebola have bat populations as disease reservoirs. Understanding the spillover from bats to humans and other animals, and the associated health risks requires an analysis of the disease dynamics in bat populations. Traditional compartmental epizootic models, which are relatively easy to implement and analyze, usually impose unrealistic aggregation assumptions about disease-related structure and depend on parameters that frequently are not measurable in field conditions. We propose a novel combination of computational and adaptive modeling approaches that address the maintenance of emerging diseases in bat colonies through individual (intra-host) models of the response of the host to a viral challenge. The dynamics of the individual models are used to define survival, susceptibility and transmission conditions relevant to epizootics as well as to develop and parametrize models of the disease evolution into uniform and diverse populations. Applications of the proposed approach to modeling the effects of immunological heterogeneity on the dynamics of bat rabies are presented.

Results from the APOGEE IN-SYNC Orion: parameters and radial velocities for thousands of young stars in the Orion Complex.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Da Rio, Nicola; SDSS Apogee IN-SYNC ancillary program Team

2015-01-01

I will present the results of our characterization of the dynamical status of the young stellar population in the Orion A star forming region. This is based on radial velocity measurements obtained within the SDSS-III Apogee IN-SYNC Orion Survey, which obtained high-resolution spectroscopy of ~3000 objects in the region, from the dense Orion Nebula Cluster - the prototypical nearby region of active massive star formation - to the low-density environments of the L1641 region. We find evidence for kinematic subclustering along the star forming filament, where the stellar component remains kinematically associated to the gas; in the ONC we find that the stellar population is supervirial and currently expanding. We rule out the existence of a controversial candidate foreground cluster to the south of the ONC. These results, complemented with an analysis of the spatial structure of the population, enables critical tests of theories that describe the formation and early evolution of Orion and young clusters in general.

A Compartmental Model for Zika Virus with Dynamic Human and Vector Populations

PubMed Central

Lee, Eva K; Liu, Yifan; Pietz, Ferdinand H

2016-01-01

The Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in South American countries and its potential association with microcephaly in newborns and Guillain-Barré Syndrome led the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern. To understand the ZIKV disease dynamics and evaluate the effectiveness of different containment strategies, we propose a compartmental model with a vector-host structure for ZIKV. The model utilizes logistic growth in human population and dynamic growth in vector population. Using this model, we derive the basic reproduction number to gain insight on containment strategies. We contrast the impact and influence of different parameters on the virus trend and outbreak spread. We also evaluate different containment strategies and their combination effects to achieve early containment by minimizing total infections. This result can help decision makers select and invest in the strategies most effective to combat the infection spread. The decision-support tool demonstrates the importance of “digital disease surveillance” in response to waves of epidemics including ZIKV, Dengue, Ebola and cholera. PMID:28269870

Decoding a Decision Process in the Neuronal Population of Dorsal Premotor Cortex.

PubMed

Rossi-Pool, Román; Zainos, Antonio; Alvarez, Manuel; Zizumbo, Jerónimo; Vergara, José; Romo, Ranulfo

2017-12-20

When trained monkeys discriminate the temporal structure of two sequential vibrotactile stimuli, dorsal premotor cortex (DPC) showed high heterogeneity among its neuronal responses. Notably, DPC neurons coded stimulus patterns as broader categories and signaled them during working memory, comparison, and postponed decision periods. Here, we show that such population activity can be condensed into two major coding components: one that persistently represented in working memory both the first stimulus identity and the postponed informed choice and another that transiently coded the initial sensory information and the result of the comparison between the two stimuli. Additionally, we identified relevant signals that coded the timing of task events. These temporal and task-parameter readouts were shown to be strongly linked to the monkeys' behavior when contrasted to those obtained in a non-demanding cognitive control task and during error trials. These signals, hidden in the heterogeneity, were prominently represented by the DPC population response. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How feeling betrayed affects cooperation.

PubMed

Ramazi, Pouria; Hessel, Jop; Cao, Ming

2015-01-01

For a population of interacting self-interested agents, we study how the average cooperation level is affected by some individuals' feelings of being betrayed and guilt. We quantify these feelings as adjusted payoffs in asymmetric games, where for different emotions, the payoff matrix takes the structure of that of either a prisoner's dilemma or a snowdrift game. Then we analyze the evolution of cooperation in a well-mixed population of agents, each of whom is associated with such a payoff matrix. At each time-step, an agent is randomly chosen from the population to update her strategy based on the myopic best-response update rule. According to the simulations, decreasing the feeling of being betrayed in a portion of agents does not necessarily increase the level of cooperation in the population. However, this resistance of the population against low-betrayal-level agents is effective only up to some extend that is explicitly determined by the payoff matrices and the number of agents associated with these matrices. Two other models are also considered where the betrayal factor of an agent fluctuates as a function of the number of cooperators and defectors that she encounters. Unstable behaviors are observed for the level of cooperation in these cases; however, we show that one can tune the parameters in the function to make the whole population become cooperative or defective.

Contact heterogeneities in feral swine: implications for disease management and future research

DOE PAGES

Pepin, Kim M.; Davis, Amy J.; Beasley, James; ...

2016-03-17

Contact rates vary widely among individuals in socially structured wildlife populations. Understanding the interplay of factors responsible for this variation is essential for planning effective disease management. Feral swine (Sus scrofa) are a socially structured species which pose an increasing threat to livestock and human health, and little is known about contact structure. We analyzed 11 GPS data sets from across the United States to understand the interplay of ecological and demographic factors on variation in co-location rates, a proxy for contact rates. Between-sounder contact rates strongly depended on the distance among home ranges (less contact among sounders separated bymore » >2 km; negligible between sounders separated by >6 km), but other factors causing high clustering between groups of sounders also seemed apparent. Our results provide spatial parameters for targeted management actions, identify data gaps that could lead to improved management and provide insight on experimental design for quantitating contact rates and structure.« less

Contact heterogeneities in feral swine: implications for disease management and future research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pepin, Kim; Davis, Amy J.; Beasley, James; Boughton, Raoul; Campbell, Tyler; Cooper, Susan; Gaston, Wes; Hartley, Stephen B.; Kilgo, John C.; Wisely, Samantha; Wyckoff, Christy; VerCauteren, Kurt

2016-01-01

Contact rates vary widely among individuals in socially structured wildlife populations. Understanding the interplay of factors responsible for this variation is essential for planning effective disease management. Feral swine (Sus scrofa) are a socially structured species which pose an increasing threat to livestock and human health, and little is known about contact structure. We analyzed 11 GPS data sets from across the United States to understand the interplay of ecological and demographic factors on variation in co-location rates, a proxy for contact rates. Between-sounder contact rates strongly depended on the distance among home ranges (less contact among sounders separated by >2 km; negligible between sounders separated by >6 km), but other factors causing high clustering between groups of sounders also seemed apparent. Our results provide spatial parameters for targeted management actions, identify data gaps that could lead to improved management and provide insight on experimental design for quantitating contact rates and structure.

Building up a QSAR model for toxicity toward Tetrahymena pyriformis by the Monte Carlo method: A case of benzene derivatives.

PubMed

Toropova, Alla P; Schultz, Terry W; Toropov, Andrey A

2016-03-01

Data on toxicity toward Tetrahymena pyriformis is indicator of applicability of a substance in ecologic and pharmaceutical aspects. Quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSARs) between the molecular structure of benzene derivatives and toxicity toward T. pyriformis (expressed as the negative logarithms of the population growth inhibition dose, mmol/L) are established. The available data were randomly distributed three times into the visible training and calibration sets, and invisible validation sets. The statistical characteristics for the validation set are the following: r(2)=0.8179 and s=0.338 (first distribution); r(2)=0.8682 and s=0.341 (second distribution); r(2)=0.8435 and s=0.323 (third distribution). These models are built up using only information on the molecular structure: no data on physicochemical parameters, 3D features of the molecular structure and quantum mechanics descriptors are involved in the modeling process. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Contact heterogeneities in feral swine: implications for disease management and future research

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pepin, Kim M.; Davis, Amy J.; Beasley, James

Contact rates vary widely among individuals in socially structured wildlife populations. Understanding the interplay of factors responsible for this variation is essential for planning effective disease management. Feral swine (Sus scrofa) are a socially structured species which pose an increasing threat to livestock and human health, and little is known about contact structure. We analyzed 11 GPS data sets from across the United States to understand the interplay of ecological and demographic factors on variation in co-location rates, a proxy for contact rates. Between-sounder contact rates strongly depended on the distance among home ranges (less contact among sounders separated bymore » >2 km; negligible between sounders separated by >6 km), but other factors causing high clustering between groups of sounders also seemed apparent. Our results provide spatial parameters for targeted management actions, identify data gaps that could lead to improved management and provide insight on experimental design for quantitating contact rates and structure.« less

Reconstruction of biofilm images: combining local and global structural parameters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Resat, Haluk; Renslow, Ryan S.; Beyenal, Haluk

2014-10-20

Digitized images can be used for quantitative comparison of biofilms grown under different conditions. Using biofilm image reconstruction, it was previously found that biofilms with a completely different look can have nearly identical structural parameters and that the most commonly utilized global structural parameters were not sufficient to uniquely define these biofilms. Here, additional local and global parameters are introduced to show that these parameters considerably increase the reliability of the image reconstruction process. Assessment using human evaluators indicated that the correct identification rate of the reconstructed images increased from 50% to 72% with the introduction of the new parametersmore » into the reconstruction procedure. An expanded set of parameters especially improved the identification of biofilm structures with internal orientational features and of structures in which colony sizes and spatial locations varied. Hence, the newly introduced structural parameter sets helped to better classify the biofilms by incorporating finer local structural details into the reconstruction process.« less