40 CFR 98.360 - Definition of the source category.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... animal population at the facility, by animal group APTL AG = Animal population threshold level, as... anaerobic lagoons, liquid/slurry systems with and without crust covers (including but not limited to ponds...

Enhancement of epidemic spread by noise and stochastic resonance in spatial network models with viral dynamics.

PubMed

Tuckwell, H C; Toubiana, L; Vibert, J F

2000-05-01

We extend a previous dynamical viral network model to include stochastic effects. The dynamical equations for the viral and immune effector densities within a host population of size n are bilinear, and the noise is white, additive, and Gaussian. The individuals are connected with an n x n transmission matrix, with terms which decay exponentially with distance. In a single individual, for the range of noise parameters considered, it is found that increasing the amplitude of the noise tends to decrease the maximum mean virion level, and slightly accelerate its attainment. Two different spatial dynamical models are employed to ascertain the effects of environmental stochasticity on viral spread. In the first model transmission is unrestricted and there is no threshold within individuals. This model has the advantage that it can be analyzed using a Fokker-Planck approach. The noise is found both to synchronize and uniformize the trajectories of the viral levels across the population of infected individuals, and thus to promote the epidemic spread of the virus. Quantitative measures of the speed of spread and overall amplitude of the epidemic are obtained as functions of the noise and virulence parameters. The mean amplitude increases steadily without threshold effects for a fixed value of the virulence as the noise amplitude sigma is increased, and there is no evidence of a stochastic resonance. However, the speed of transmission, both with respect to its mean and variance, undergoes rapid increases as sigma changes by relatively small amounts. In the second, more realistic, model, there is a threshold for infection and an upper limit to the transmission rate. There may be no spread of infection at all in the absence of noise. With increasing noise level and a low threshold, the mean maximum virion level grows quickly and shows a broad-based stochastic resonance effect. When the threshold within individuals is increased, the mean population virion level increases only slowly as sigma increases, until a critical value is reached at which the mean infection level suddenly increases. Similar results are obtained when the parameters of the model are also randomized across the population. We conclude with a discussion and a description of a diffusion approximation for a model in which stochasticity arises through random contacts rather than fluctuation in ambient virion levels.

Resonances and thresholds in the Rydberg-level population of multiply charged ions at solid surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nedeljković, Lj. D.; Nedeljković, N. N.

1998-12-01

We present a theoretical study of resonances and thresholds, two specific features of Rydberg-state formation of multiply charged ions (Z=6, 7, and 8) escaping a solid surface at intermediate velocities (v~1 a.u.) in the normal emergence geometry. The resonances are recognized in pronounced maxima of the experimentally observed population curves of Ar VIII ions for resonant values of the principal quantum number n=nres=11 and for the angular momentum quantum numbers l=1 and 2. Absence of optical signals in detectors of beam-foil experiments for n>nthr of S VI and Cl VII ions (with l=0, 1, and 2) and Ar VIII for l=0 is interpreted as a threshold phenomenon. An interplay between resonance and threshold effects is established within the framework of quantum dynamics of the low angular momentum Rydberg-state formation, based on a generalization of Demkov-Ostrovskii's charge-exchange model. In the model proposed, the Ar VIII resonances appear as a consequence of electron tunneling in the very vicinity of the ion-surface potential barrier top and at some critical ion-surface distances Rc. The observed thresholds are explained by means of a decay mechanism of ionic Rydberg states formed dominantly above the Fermi level EF of a solid conduction band. The theoretically predicted resonant and threshold values, nres and nthr of the principal quantum number n, as well as the obtained population probabilities Pnl=Pnl(v,Z), are in sufficiently good agreement with all available experimental findings.

Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

2016-02-01

The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions.

Lethal mutagenesis: targeting the mutator phenotype in cancer.

PubMed

Fox, Edward J; Loeb, Lawrence A

2010-10-01

The evolution of cancer and RNA viruses share many similarities. Both exploit high levels of genotypic diversity to enable extensive phenotypic plasticity and thereby facilitate rapid adaptation. In order to accumulate large numbers of mutations, we have proposed that cancers express a mutator phenotype. Similar to cancer cells, many viral populations, by replicating their genomes with low fidelity, carry a substantial mutational load. As high levels of mutation are potentially deleterious, the viral mutation frequency is thresholded at a level below which viral populations equilibrate in a traditional mutation-selection balance, and above which the population is no longer viable, i.e., the population undergoes an error catastrophe. Because their mutation frequencies are fine-tuned just below this error threshold, viral populations are susceptible to further increases in mutational load and, recently this phenomenon has been exploited therapeutically by a concept that has been termed lethal mutagenesis. Here we review the application of lethal mutagenesis to the treatment of HIV and discuss how lethal mutagenesis may represent a novel therapeutic approach for the treatment of solid cancers. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variation in hearing within a wild population of beluga whales (Delphinapterus leucas).

PubMed

Mooney, T Aran; Castellote, Manuel; Quakenbush, Lori; Hobbs, Roderick; Gaglione, Eric; Goertz, Caroline

2018-05-08

Documenting hearing abilities is vital to understanding a species' acoustic ecology and for predicting the impacts of increasing anthropogenic noise. Cetaceans use sound for essential biological functions such as foraging, navigation and communication; hearing is considered to be their primary sensory modality. Yet, we know little regarding the hearing of most, if not all, cetacean populations, which limits our understanding of their sensory ecology, population level variability and the potential impacts of increasing anthropogenic noise. We obtained audiograms (5.6-150 kHz) of 26 wild beluga whales to measure hearing thresholds during capture-release events in Bristol Bay, AK, USA, using auditory evoked potential methods. The goal was to establish the baseline population audiogram, incidences of hearing loss and general variability in wild beluga whales. In general, belugas showed sensitive hearing with low thresholds (<80 dB) from 16 to 100 kHz, and most individuals (76%) responded to at least 120 kHz. Despite belugas often showing sensitive hearing, thresholds were usually above or approached the low ambient noise levels measured in the area, suggesting that a quiet environment may be associated with hearing sensitivity and that hearing thresholds in the most sensitive animals may have been masked. Although this is just one wild population, the success of the method suggests that it should be applied to other populations and species to better assess potential differences. Bristol Bay beluga audiograms showed substantial (30-70 dB) variation among individuals; this variation increased at higher frequencies. Differences among individual belugas reflect that testing multiple individuals of a population is necessary to best describe maximum sensitivity and population variance. The results of this study quadruple the number of individual beluga whales for which audiograms have been conducted and provide the first auditory data for a population of healthy wild odontocetes. © 2018. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

An avoidance behavior model for migrating whale populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buck, John R.; Tyack, Peter L.

2003-04-01

A new model is presented for the avoidance behavior of migrating marine mammals in the presence of a noise stimulus. This model assumes that each whale will adjust its movement pattern near a sound source to maintain its exposure below its own individually specific maximum received sound-pressure level, called its avoidance threshold. The probability distribution function (PDF) of this avoidance threshold across individuals characterizes the migrating population. The avoidance threshold PDF may be estimated by comparing the distribution of migrating whales during playback and control conditions at their closest point of approach to the sound source. The proposed model was applied to the January 1998 experiment which placed a single acoustic source from the U.S. Navy SURTASS-LFA system in the migration corridor of grey whales off the California coast. This analysis found that the median avoidance threshold for this migrating grey whale population was 135 dB, with 90% confidence that the median threshold was within +/-3 dB of this value. This value is less than the 141 dB value for 50% avoidance obtained when the 1984 ``Probability of Avoidance'' model of Malme et al.'s was applied to the same data. [Work supported by ONR.

Threshold level or not for low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

PubMed

Barter, P J; Sacks, F M

2001-05-01

As drugs, such as the statins, and other therapies demonstrate the ability to significantly lower levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), one issue is whether there is a lower threshold below which no further decline in coronary heart disease occurs. Those who evaluate the data from multiple trials and conclude that no significant decrease in coronary event rates occurs at or below 125 mg/dL suggest using this level as a guideline for clinical application of cholesterol-lowering therapy. On the other hand, analysis of the results of the same population and primary prevention studies concludes that no such threshold exists. The issues affected by the decision of whether to use a threshold include costs to the healthcare system for additional physician time, tests, and medication; unknown clinical events and safety related to very low LDL-C; and resource prioritization to an unestablished therapeutic approach.

Exploration into Uric and Cardiovascular Disease: Uric Acid Right for heArt Health (URRAH) Project, A Study Protocol for a Retrospective Observational Study.

PubMed

Desideri, Giovambattista; Virdis, Agostino; Casiglia, Edoardo; Borghi, Claudio

2018-06-01

The relevance of cardiovascular role played by levels of serum uric acid is dramatically growing, especially as cardiovascular risk factor potentially able to exert either a direct deleterious impact or a synergic effect with other cardiovascular risk factors. At the present time, it still remains undefined the threshold level of serum uric acid able to contribute to the cardiovascular risk. Indeed, the available epidemiological case studies are not homogeneous, and some preliminary data suggest that the so-called "cardiovascular threshold limit" may substantially differ from that identified as a cut-off able to trigger the acute gout attack. In such scenario, there is the necessity to clarify and quantify this threshold value, to insert it in the stratification of risk algorithm scores and, in turn, to adopt proper prevention and correction strategies. The clarification of the relationship between circulating levels of uric acid and cardio-nephro-metabolic disorders in a broad sample representative of general population is critical to identify the threshold value of serum uric acid better discriminating the increased risk associated with uric acid. The Uric acid Right for heArt Health (URRAH) project has been designed to define, as primary objective, the level of uricemia above which the independent risk of cardiovascular disease may increase in a significantly manner in a general Italian population.

Beneficial laggards: multilevel selection, cooperative polymorphism and division of labour in threshold public good games

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The origin and stability of cooperation is a hot topic in social and behavioural sciences. A complicated conundrum exists as defectors have an advantage over cooperators, whenever cooperation is costly so consequently, not cooperating pays off. In addition, the discovery that humans and some animal populations, such as lions, are polymorphic, where cooperators and defectors stably live together -- while defectors are not being punished--, is even more puzzling. Here we offer a novel explanation based on a Threshold Public Good Game (PGG) that includes the interaction of individual and group level selection, where individuals can contribute to multiple collective actions, in our model group hunting and group defense. Results Our results show that there are polymorphic equilibria in Threshold PGGs; that multi-level selection does not select for the most cooperators per group but selects those close to the optimum number of cooperators (in terms of the Threshold PGG). In particular for medium cost values division of labour evolves within the group with regard to the two types of cooperative actions (hunting vs. defense). Moreover we show evidence that spatial population structure promotes cooperation in multiple PGGs. We also demonstrate that these results apply for a wide range of non-linear benefit function types. Conclusions We demonstrate that cooperation can be stable in Threshold PGG, even when the proportion of so called free riders is high in the population. A fundamentally new mechanism is proposed how laggards, individuals that have a high tendency to defect during one specific group action can actually contribute to the fitness of the group, by playing part in an optimal resource allocation in Threshold Public Good Games. In general, our results show that acknowledging a multilevel selection process will open up novel explanations for collective actions. PMID:21044340

[Hypercholesterolemia-related cardiovascular risk: a continuum from a notion of normality, intervention threshold and therapeutic objectives].

PubMed

Scheen, A J

1999-01-01

There appears to be a continuum between the cardiovascular risk and the level of blood cholesterol, which hinders the definition of normal values, intervention threshold and therapeutic goals. The more and more convincing evidences provided by the "Evidence-Based Medicine" should be confronted to the pharmaco-economical constraints in order to first focus the essential of the efforts and resources on the target population with the highest risk. Unfortunately, the therapeutic strategy concerns a rather high percentage of the population of industrialized countries.

Relationship Between Crop Losses and Initial Population Densities of Meloidogyne arenaria in Winter-Grown Oriental Melon in Korea

PubMed Central

Kim, D.G.; Ferris, H.

2002-01-01

To determine the economic threshold level, oriental melon (Cucumis melo L. cv. Geumssaragi-euncheon) grafted on Shintozoa (Cucurbita maxima × Cu. moschata) was planted in plots (2 × 3 m) under a plastic film in February with a range of initial population densities (Pi) of Meloidogyne arenaria. The relationships of early, late, and total yield to Pi measured in September and January were adequately described by both linear regression and the Seinhorst damage model. Initial nematode densities in September in excess of 14 second-stage juveniles (J2)/100 cm³ soil caused losses in total yields that exceeded the economic threshold and indicate the need for fosthiazate nematicide treatment at current costs. Differences in yield-loss relationships to Pi between early- and late-season harvests enhance the resolution of the management decision and suggest approaches for optimizing returns. Determination of population levels for advisory purposes can be based on assay samples taken several months before planting, which allows time for implementation of management procedures. We introduce (i) an amendment of the economic threshold definition to reflect efficacy of the nematode management procedure under consideration, and (ii) the concept of profit limit as the nematode population at which net returns from the system will become negative. PMID:19265907

40 CFR Table Jj-1 to Subpart Jj of... - Animal Population Threshold Level Below Which Facilities Are Not Required To Report Emissions...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... Emissions Under Subpart JJ 1 2 Animal group Average annual animal population (Head) 3 Beef 29,300 Dairy 3... groups except dairy, the average annual animal population represents the total number of animals present at the facility. For dairy facilities, the average annual animal population represents the number of...

40 CFR Table Jj-1 to Subpart Jj of... - Animal Population Threshold Level Below Which Facilities Are Not Required To Report Emissions...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... Emissions Under Subpart JJ 1,2 Animal group Average annual animal population (Head) 3 Beef 29,300 Dairy 3... groups except dairy, the average annual animal population represents the total number of animals present at the facility. For dairy facilities, the average annual animal population represents the number of...

Survey of abdominal obesities in an adult urban population of Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo

PubMed Central

Kasiam Lasi On’kin, JB; Longo-Mbenza, B; Okwe, A Nge; Kabangu, N Kangola

2007-01-01

Summary Background The prevalence of overweight/obesity, which is an important cardiovascular risk factor, is rapidly increasing worldwide. Abdominal obesity, a fundamental component of the metabolic syndrome, is not defined by appropriate cutoff points for sub-Saharan Africa. Objective To provide baseline and reference data on the anthropometry/body composition and the prevalence rates of obesity types and levels in the adult urban population of Kinshasa, DRC, Central Africa. Methods During this cross-sectional study carried out within a random sample of adults in Kinshasa town, body mass index, waist circumference and fatty mass were measured using standard methods. Their reference and local thresholds (cut-off points) were compared with those of WHO, NCEP and IFD to define the types and levels of obesity in the population. Results From this sample of 11 511 subjects (5 676 men and 5 835 women), the men presented with similar body mass index and fatty mass values to those of the women, but higher waist measurements. The international thresholds overestimated the prevalence of denutrition, but underscored that of general and abdominal obesity. The two types of obesity were more prevalent among women than men when using both international and local thresholds. Body mass index was negatively associated with age; but abdominal obesity was more frequent before 20 years of age and between 40 and 60 years old. Local thresholds of body mass index (≥ 23, ≥ 27 and ≥ 30 kg/m2) and waist measurement (≥ 80, ≥ 90 and ≥ 94 cm) defined epidemic rates of overweight/general obesity (52%) and abdominal obesity (40.9%). The threshold of waist circumference ≥ 94 cm (90th percentile) corresponding to the threshold of the body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m2 (90th percentile) was proposed as the specific threshold of definition of the metabolic syndrome, without reference to gender, for the cities of sub-Saharan Africa. Conclusion Further studies are required to define the optimal threshold of waist circumference in rural settings. The present local cut-off points of body mass index and waist circumference could be appropriate for the identification of Africans at risk of obesity-related disorders, and indicate the need to implement interventions to reverse increasing levels of obesity. PMID:17985031

Temporal and Spatial Variation in, and Population Exposure to, Summertime Ground-Level Ozone in Beijing

PubMed Central

Zheng, Youfei; Li, Ting; Wei, Li; Guan, Qing

2018-01-01

Ground-level ozone pollution in Beijing has been causing concern among the public due to the risks posed to human health. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of, and investigated population exposure to, ground-level ozone. We analyzed hourly ground-level ozone data from 35 ambient air quality monitoring sites, including urban, suburban, background, and traffic monitoring sites, during the summer in Beijing from 2014 to 2017. The results showed that the four-year mean ozone concentrations for urban, suburban, background, and traffic monitoring sites were 95.1, 99.8, 95.9, and 74.2 μg/m3, respectively. A total of 44, 43, 45, and 43 days exceeded the Chinese National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) threshold for ground-level ozone in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. The mean ozone concentration was higher in suburban sites than in urban sites, and the traffic monitoring sites had the lowest concentration. The diurnal variation in ground-level ozone concentration at the four types of monitoring sites displayed a single-peak curve. The peak and valley values occurred at 3:00–4:00 p.m. and 7:00 a.m., respectively. Spatially, ground-level ozone concentrations decreased in gradient from the north to the south. Population exposure levels were calculated based on ground-level ozone concentrations and population data. Approximately 50.38%, 44.85%, and 48.49% of the total population of Beijing were exposed to ground-level ozone concentrations exceeding the Chinese NAAQS threshold in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively. PMID:29596366

Temporal and Spatial Variation in, and Population Exposure to, Summertime Ground-Level Ozone in Beijing.

PubMed

Zhao, Hui; Zheng, Youfei; Li, Ting; Wei, Li; Guan, Qing

2018-03-29

Ground-level ozone pollution in Beijing has been causing concern among the public due to the risks posed to human health. This study analyzed the temporal and spatial distribution of, and investigated population exposure to, ground-level ozone. We analyzed hourly ground-level ozone data from 35 ambient air quality monitoring sites, including urban, suburban, background, and traffic monitoring sites, during the summer in Beijing from 2014 to 2017. The results showed that the four-year mean ozone concentrations for urban, suburban, background, and traffic monitoring sites were 95.1, 99.8, 95.9, and 74.2 μg/m³, respectively. A total of 44, 43, 45, and 43 days exceeded the Chinese National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) threshold for ground-level ozone in 2014, 2015, 2016, and 2017, respectively. The mean ozone concentration was higher in suburban sites than in urban sites, and the traffic monitoring sites had the lowest concentration. The diurnal variation in ground-level ozone concentration at the four types of monitoring sites displayed a single-peak curve. The peak and valley values occurred at 3:00-4:00 p.m. and 7:00 a.m., respectively. Spatially, ground-level ozone concentrations decreased in gradient from the north to the south. Population exposure levels were calculated based on ground-level ozone concentrations and population data. Approximately 50.38%, 44.85%, and 48.49% of the total population of Beijing were exposed to ground-level ozone concentrations exceeding the Chinese NAAQS threshold in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively.

A mathematical model for malaria transmission with asymptomatic carriers and two age groups in the human population.

PubMed

Beretta, Edoardo; Capasso, Vincenzo; Garao, Dario G

2018-06-01

In this paper a conceptual mathematical model of malaria transmission proposed in a previous paper has been analyzed in a deeper detail. Among its key epidemiological features of this model, two-age-classes (child and adult) and asymptomatic carriers have been included. The extra mortality of mosquitoes due to the use of long-lasting treated mosquito nets (LLINs) and Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) has been included too. By taking advantage of the natural double time scale of the parasite and the human populations, it has been possible to provide interesting threshold results. In particular it has been shown that key parameters can be identified such that below a threshold level, built on these parameters, the epidemic tends to extinction, while above another threshold level it tends to a nontrivial endemic state, for which an interval estimate has been provided. Numerical simulations confirm the analytical results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Continuous-wave infrared optical gain and amplified spontaneous emission at ultralow threshold by colloidal HgTe quantum dots.

PubMed

Geiregat, Pieter; Houtepen, Arjan J; Sagar, Laxmi Kishore; Infante, Ivan; Zapata, Felipe; Grigel, Valeriia; Allan, Guy; Delerue, Christophe; Van Thourhout, Dries; Hens, Zeger

2018-01-01

Colloidal quantum dots (QDs) raise more and more interest as solution-processable and tunable optical gain materials. However, especially for infrared active QDs, optical gain remains inefficient. Since stimulated emission involves multifold degenerate band-edge states, population inversion can be attained only at high pump power and must compete with efficient multi-exciton recombination. Here, we show that mercury telluride (HgTe) QDs exhibit size-tunable stimulated emission throughout the near-infrared telecom window at thresholds unmatched by any QD studied before. We attribute this unique behaviour to surface-localized states in the bandgap that turn HgTe QDs into 4-level systems. The resulting long-lived population inversion induces amplified spontaneous emission under continuous-wave optical pumping at power levels compatible with solar irradiation and direct current electrical pumping. These results introduce an alternative approach for low-threshold QD-based gain media based on intentional trap states that paves the way for solution-processed infrared QD lasers and amplifiers.

Continuous-wave infrared optical gain and amplified spontaneous emission at ultralow threshold by colloidal HgTe quantum dots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geiregat, Pieter; Houtepen, Arjan J.; Sagar, Laxmi Kishore; Infante, Ivan; Zapata, Felipe; Grigel, Valeriia; Allan, Guy; Delerue, Christophe; van Thourhout, Dries; Hens, Zeger

2018-01-01

Colloidal quantum dots (QDs) raise more and more interest as solution-processable and tunable optical gain materials. However, especially for infrared active QDs, optical gain remains inefficient. Since stimulated emission involves multifold degenerate band-edge states, population inversion can be attained only at high pump power and must compete with efficient multi-exciton recombination. Here, we show that mercury telluride (HgTe) QDs exhibit size-tunable stimulated emission throughout the near-infrared telecom window at thresholds unmatched by any QD studied before. We attribute this unique behaviour to surface-localized states in the bandgap that turn HgTe QDs into 4-level systems. The resulting long-lived population inversion induces amplified spontaneous emission under continuous-wave optical pumping at power levels compatible with solar irradiation and direct current electrical pumping. These results introduce an alternative approach for low-threshold QD-based gain media based on intentional trap states that paves the way for solution-processed infrared QD lasers and amplifiers.

Population dynamics of live-attenuated virus vaccines.

PubMed

Wagner, Bradley G; Earn, David J D

2010-03-01

Viruses contained in live-attenuated virus vaccines (LAVV) can be transmitted between individuals, resulting in secondary or contact vaccinations. This fact has been exploited successfully in the use of the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) to better control wild-type polio viruses. In this work we analyze general LAVV vaccination models for infections that confer lifelong immunity. We consider both standard (continuous) vaccination strategies and pulse vaccination programs (where mass vaccination is carried out at regular intervals). For continuous vaccination, we provide a complete global analysis of a very general compartmental ordinary differential equation LAVV model. We find that the threshold vaccination level required for the eradication of wild-type virus depends on the basic reproduction numbers of both the wild-type and vaccine viruses, but is otherwise independent of the distributions of the durations in each of the sequence of stages of disease progression (e.g., latent, infectious, etc.). Furthermore, even for vaccine viruses with reproduction numbers below one, which would naturally fade from the population upon cessation of vaccination, there can be a significant reduction in the threshold vaccination level. The dependence of the threshold vaccination level on the virus reproduction numbers largely generalizes to the pulse vaccination model. For shorter pulsing periods there is negligible difference in threshold vaccination level as compared to continuous vaccination campaigns. Thus, we conclude that current policy in many countries to employ annual pulsed OPV vaccination does not significantly diminish the benefits of contact vaccination. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Optimizing drug-dose alerts using commercial software throughout an integrated health care system.

PubMed

Saiyed, Salim M; Greco, Peter J; Fernandes, Glenn; Kaelber, David C

2017-11-01

All default electronic health record and drug reference database vendor drug-dose alerting recommendations (single dose, daily dose, dose frequency, and dose duration) were silently turned on in inpatient, outpatient, and emergency department areas for pediatric-only and nonpediatric-only populations. Drug-dose alerts were evaluated during a 3-month period. Drug-dose alerts fired on 12% of orders (104 098/834 911). System-level and drug-specific strategies to decrease drug-dose alerts were analyzed. System-level strategies included: (1) turning off all minimum drug-dosing alerts, (2) turning off all incomplete information drug-dosing alerts, (3) increasing the maximum single-dose drug-dose alert threshold to 125%, (4) increasing the daily dose maximum drug-dose alert threshold to 125%, and (5) increasing the dose frequency drug-dose alert threshold to more than 2 doses per day above initial threshold. Drug-specific strategies included changing drug-specific maximum single and maximum daily drug-dose alerting parameters for the top 22 drug categories by alert frequency. System-level approaches decreased alerting to 5% (46 988/834 911) and drug-specific approaches decreased alerts to 3% (25 455/834 911). Drug-dose alerts varied between care settings and patient populations. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

What is the optimal rate of caesarean section at population level? A systematic review of ecologic studies.

PubMed

Betran, Ana Pilar; Torloni, Maria Regina; Zhang, Jun; Ye, Jiangfeng; Mikolajczyk, Rafael; Deneux-Tharaux, Catherine; Oladapo, Olufemi Taiwo; Souza, João Paulo; Tunçalp, Özge; Vogel, Joshua Peter; Gülmezoglu, Ahmet Metin

2015-06-21

In 1985, WHO stated that there was no justification for caesarean section (CS) rates higher than 10-15% at population-level. While the CS rates worldwide have continued to increase in an unprecedented manner over the subsequent three decades, concern has been raised about the validity of the 1985 landmark statement. We conducted a systematic review to identify, critically appraise and synthesize the analyses of the ecologic association between CS rates and maternal, neonatal and infant outcomes. Four electronic databases were searched for ecologic studies published between 2000 and 2014 that analysed the possible association between CS rates and maternal, neonatal or infant mortality or morbidity. Two reviewers performed study selection, data extraction and quality assessment independently. We identified 11,832 unique citations and eight studies were included in the review. Seven studies correlated CS rates with maternal mortality, five with neonatal mortality, four with infant mortality, two with LBW and one with stillbirths. Except for one, all studies were cross-sectional in design and five were global analyses of national-level CS rates versus mortality outcomes. Although the overall quality of the studies was acceptable; only two studies controlled for socio-economic factors and none controlled for clinical or demographic characteristics of the population. In unadjusted analyses, authors found a strong inverse relationship between CS rates and the mortality outcomes so that maternal, neonatal and infant mortality decrease as CS rates increase up to a certain threshold. In the eight studies included in this review, this threshold was at CS rates between 9 and 16%. However, in the two studies that adjusted for socio-economic factors, this relationship was either weakened or disappeared after controlling for these confounders. CS rates above the threshold of 9-16% were not associated with decreases in mortality outcomes regardless of adjustments. Our findings could be interpreted to mean that at CS rates below this threshold, socio-economic development may be driving the ecologic association between CS rates and mortality. On the other hand, at rates higher than this threshold, there is no association between CS and mortality outcomes regardless of adjustment. The ecological association between CS rates and relevant morbidity outcomes needs to be evaluated before drawing more definite conclusions at population level.

Potential Population Consequences of Active Sonar Disturbance in Atlantic Herring: Estimating the Maximum Risk.

PubMed

Sivle, Lise Doksæter; Kvadsheim, Petter Helgevold; Ainslie, Michael

2016-01-01

Effects of noise on fish populations may be predicted by the population consequence of acoustic disturbance (PCAD) model. We have predicted the potential risk of population disturbance when the highest sound exposure level (SEL) at which adult herring do not respond to naval sonar (SEL(0)) is exceeded. When the population density is low (feeding), the risk is low even at high sonar source levels and long-duration exercises (>24 h). With densely packed populations (overwintering), a sonar exercise might expose the entire population to levels >SEL(0) within a 24-h exercise period. However, the disturbance will be short and the response threshold used here is highly conservative. It is therefore unlikely that naval sonar will significantly impact the herring population.

The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT): Exploring the Factor Structure and Cutoff Thresholds in a Representative Post-Conflict Population in Northern Uganda.

PubMed

Blair, Alden Hooper; Pearce, Margo Ellen; Katamba, Achilles; Malamba, Samuel S; Muyinda, Herbert; Schechter, Martin T; Spittal, Patricia M

2017-05-01

Despite increased use of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) in sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have assessed its underlying conceptual framework, and none have done so in post-conflict settings. Further, significant inconsistencies exist between definitions used for problematic consumption. Such is the case in Uganda, facing one of the highest per-capita alcohol consumption levels regionally, which is thought to be hindering rebuilding in the North after two decades of civil war. This study explores the impact of varying designation cutoff thresholds in the AUDIT as well as its conceptual factor structure in a representative sample of the population. In all, 1720 Cango Lyec Project participants completed socio-economic and mental health questionnaires, provided blood samples and took the AUDIT. Participant characteristics and consumption designations were compared at AUDIT summary score thresholds of ≥3, ≥5 and ≥8. Confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) explored one-, two- and three-factor level models overall and by sex with relative and absolute fit indicators. There were no significant differences in participant demographic characteristics between thresholds. At higher cutoffs, the test increased in specificity to identify those with hazardous drinking, disordered drinking and suffering from alcohol-related harms. All conceptual models indicated good fit, with three-factor models superior overall and within both sexes. In Northern Uganda, a three-factor AUDIT model best explores alcohol use in the population and is appropriate for use in both sexes. Lower cutoff thresholds are recommended to identify those with potentially disordered drinking to best plan effective interventions and treatments. A CFA of the AUDIT showed good fit for one-, two, and three-factor models overall and by sex in a representative sample in post-conflict Northern Uganda. A three-plus total AUDIT cutoff score is suggested to screen for hazardous drinking in this or similar populations. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Predictors of the nicotine reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand in a rodent model of nicotine reduction policy.

PubMed

Grebenstein, Patricia E; Burroughs, Danielle; Roiko, Samuel A; Pentel, Paul R; LeSage, Mark G

2015-06-01

The FDA is considering reducing the nicotine content in tobacco products as a population-based strategy to reduce tobacco addiction. Research is needed to determine the threshold level of nicotine needed to maintain smoking and the extent of compensatory smoking that could occur during nicotine reduction. Sources of variability in these measures across sub-populations also need to be identified so that policies can take into account the risks and benefits of nicotine reduction in vulnerable populations. The present study examined these issues in a rodent nicotine self-administration model of nicotine reduction policy to characterize individual differences in nicotine reinforcement thresholds, degree of compensation, and elasticity of demand during progressive reduction of the unit nicotine dose. The ability of individual differences in baseline nicotine intake and nicotine pharmacokinetics to predict responses to dose reduction was also examined. Considerable variability in the reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand was evident. High baseline nicotine intake was not correlated with the reinforcement threshold, but predicted less compensation and less elastic demand. Higher nicotine clearance predicted low reinforcement thresholds, greater compensation, and less elastic demand. Less elastic demand also predicted lower reinforcement thresholds. These findings suggest that baseline nicotine intake, nicotine clearance, and the essential value of nicotine (i.e. elasticity of demand) moderate the effects of progressive nicotine reduction in rats and warrant further study in humans. They also suggest that smokers with fast nicotine metabolism may be more vulnerable to the risks of nicotine reduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of the nicotine reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand in a rodent model of nicotine reduction policy*

PubMed Central

Grebenstein, Patricia E.; Burroughs, Danielle; Roiko, Samuel A.; Pentel, Paul R.; LeSage, Mark G.

2015-01-01

Background The FDA is considering reducing the nicotine content in tobacco products as a population-based strategy to reduce tobacco addiction. Research is needed to determine the threshold level of nicotine needed to maintain smoking and the extent of compensatory smoking that could occur during nicotine reduction. Sources of variability in these measures across sub-populations also need to be identified so that policies can take into account the risks and benefits of nicotine reduction in vulnerable populations. Methods The present study examined these issues in a rodent nicotine self- administration model of nicotine reduction policy to characterize individual differences in nicotine reinforcement thresholds, degree of compensation, and elasticity of demand during progressive reduction of the unit nicotine dose. The ability of individual differences in baseline nicotine intake and nicotine pharmacokinetics to predict responses to dose reduction was also examined. Results Considerable variability in the reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand was evident. High baseline nicotine intake was not correlated with the reinforcement threshold, but predicted less compensation and less elastic demand. Higher nicotine clearance predicted low reinforcement thresholds, greater compensation, and less elastic demand. Less elastic demand also predicted lower reinforcement thresholds. Conclusions These findings suggest that baseline nicotine intake, nicotine clearance, and the essential value of nicotine (i.e. elasticity of demand) moderate the effects of progressive nicotine reduction in rats and warrant further study in humans. They also suggest that smokers with fast nicotine metabolism may be more vulnerable to the risks of nicotine reduction. PMID:25891231

[FRAX® thresholds to identify people with high or low risk of osteoporotic fracture in Spanish female population].

PubMed

Azagra, Rafael; Roca, Genís; Martín-Sánchez, Juan Carlos; Casado, Enrique; Encabo, Gloria; Zwart, Marta; Aguyé, Amada; Díez-Pérez, Adolf

2015-01-06

To detect FRAX(®) threshold levels that identify groups of the population that are at high/low risk of osteoporotic fracture in the Spanish female population using a cost-effective assessment. This is a cohort study. Eight hundred and sixteen women 40-90 years old selected from the FRIDEX cohort with densitometry and risk factors for fracture at baseline who received no treatment for osteoporosis during the 10 year follow-up period and were stratified into 3 groups/levels of fracture risk (low<10%, 10-20% intermediate and high>20%) according to the real fracture incidence. The thresholds of FRAX(®) baseline for major osteoporotic fracture were: low risk<5; intermediate ≥ 5 to <7.5 and high ≥ 7.5. The incidence of fracture with these values was: low risk (3.6%; 95% CI 2.2-5.9), intermediate risk (13.7%; 95% CI 7.1-24.2) and high risk (21.4%; 95% CI12.9-33.2). The most cost-effective option was to refer to dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA-scan) for FRAX(®)≥ 5 (Intermediate and high risk) to reclassify by FRAX(®) with DXA-scan at high/low risk. These thresholds select 17.5% of women for DXA-scan and 10% for treatment. With these thresholds of FRAX(®), compared with the strategy of opportunistic case finding isolated risk factors, would improve the predictive parameters and reduce 82.5% the DXA-scan, 35.4% osteoporosis prescriptions and 28.7% cost to detect the same number of women who suffer fractures. The use of FRAX ® thresholds identified as high/low risk of osteoporotic fracture in this calibration (FRIDEX model) improve predictive parameters in Spanish women and in a more cost-effective than the traditional model based on the T-score ≤ -2.5 of DXA scan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Digital music exposure reliably induces temporary threshold shift in normal-hearing human subjects.

PubMed

Le Prell, Colleen G; Dell, Shawna; Hensley, Brittany; Hall, James W; Campbell, Kathleen C M; Antonelli, Patrick J; Green, Glenn E; Miller, James M; Guire, Kenneth

2012-01-01

One of the challenges for evaluating new otoprotective agents for potential benefit in human populations is the availability of an established clinical paradigm with real-world relevance. These studies were explicitly designed to develop a real-world digital music exposure that reliably induces temporary threshold shift (TTS) in normal-hearing human subjects. Thirty-three subjects participated in studies that measured effects of digital music player use on hearing. Subjects selected either rock or pop music, which was then presented at 93 to 95 (n = 10), 98 to 100 (n = 11), or 100 to 102 (n = 12) dBA in-ear exposure level for a period of 4 hr. Audiograms and distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs) were measured before and after music exposure. Postmusic tests were initiated 15 min, 1 hr 15 min, 2 hr 15 min, and 3 hr 15 min after the exposure ended. Additional tests were conducted the following day and 1 week later. Changes in thresholds after the lowest-level exposure were difficult to distinguish from test-retest variability; however, TTS was reliably detected after higher levels of sound exposure. Changes in audiometric thresholds had a "notch" configuration, with the largest changes observed at 4 kHz (mean = 6.3 ± 3.9 dB; range = 0-14 dB). Recovery was largely complete within the first 4 hr postexposure, and all subjects showed complete recovery of both thresholds and DPOAE measures when tested 1 week postexposure. These data provide insight into the variability of TTS induced by music-player use in a healthy, normal-hearing, young adult population, with music playlist, level, and duration carefully controlled. These data confirm the likelihood of temporary changes in auditory function after digital music-player use. Such data are essential for the development of a human clinical trial protocol that provides a highly powered design for evaluating novel therapeutics in human clinical trials. Care must be taken to fully inform potential subjects in future TTS studies, including protective agent evaluations, that some noise exposures have resulted in neural degeneration in animal models, even when both audiometric thresholds and DPOAE levels returned to pre-exposure values.

Asymmetric hearing loss in a random population of patients with mild to moderate sensorineural hearing loss.

PubMed

Segal, Nili; Shkolnik, Mark; Kochba, Anat; Segal, Avichai; Kraus, Mordechai

2007-01-01

We evaluated the correlation of asymmetric hearing loss, in a random population of patients with mild to moderate sensorineural hearing loss, to several clinical factors such as age, sex, handedness, and noise exposure. We randomly selected, from 8 hearing institutes in Israel, 429 patients with sensorineural hearing loss of at least 30 dB at one frequency and a speech reception threshold not exceeding 30 dB. Patients with middle ear disease or retrocochlear disorders were excluded. The results of audiometric examinations were compared binaurally and in relation to the selected factors. The left ear's hearing threshold level was significantly higher than that of the right ear at all frequencies except 1.0 kHz (p < .05). One hundred fifty patients (35%) had asymmetric hearing loss (more than 10 dB difference between ears). In most of the patients (85%) the binaural difference in hearing threshold level, at any frequency, was less than 20 dB. Age, handedness, and sex were not found to be correlated to asymmetric hearing loss. Noise exposure was found to be correlated to asymmetric hearing loss.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of potential responses to future high levels of transmitted HIV drug resistance in antiretroviral drug-naive populations beginning treatment: modelling study and economic analysis

PubMed Central

Phillips, Andrew N; Cambiano, Valentina; Miners, Alec; Revill, Paul; Pillay, Deenan; Lundgren, Jens D; Bennett, Diane; Raizes, Elliott; Nakagawa, Fumiyo; De Luca, Andrea; Vitoria, Marco; Barcarolo, Jhoney; Perriens, Joseph; Jordan, Michael R; Bertagnolio, Silvia

2016-01-01

Summary Background With continued roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings, evidence is emerging of increasing levels of transmitted drug-resistant HIV. We aimed to compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different potential public health responses to substantial levels of transmitted drug resistance. Methods We created a model of HIV transmission, progression, and the effects of ART, which accounted for resistance generation, transmission, and disappearance of resistance from majority virus in the absence of drug pressure. We simulated 5000 ART programmatic scenarios with different prevalence levels of detectable resistance in people starting ART in 2017 (t0) who had not previously been exposed to antiretroviral drugs. We used the model to predict cost-effectiveness of various potential changes in policy triggered by different prevalence levels of resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) measured in the population starting ART. Findings Individual-level resistance testing before ART initiation was not generally a cost-effective option, irrespective of the cost-effectiveness threshold. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), no change in policy was cost effective (ie, no change in policy would involve paying less than $500 per QALY gained), irrespective of the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI resistance, because of the increased cost of the policy alternatives. At thresholds of $1000 or higher, and with the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI resistance greater than 10%, a policy to measure viral load 6 months after ART initiation became cost effective. The policy option to change the standard first-line treatment to a boosted protease inhibitor regimen became cost effective at a prevalence of NNRTI resistance higher than 15%, for cost-effectiveness thresholds greater than $2000. Interpretation Cost-effectiveness of potential policies to adopt in response to different levels of pretreatment HIV drug resistance depends on competing budgetary claims, reflected in the cost-effectiveness threshold. Results from our model will help inform WHO recommendations on monitoring of HIV drug resistance in people starting ART. Funding WHO (with funds provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation), CHAIN (European Commission). PMID:26423990

Insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) cut-off values and the metabolic syndrome in a general adult population: effect of gender and age: EPIRCE cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Insulin resistance has been associated with metabolic and hemodynamic alterations and higher cardio metabolic risk. There is great variability in the threshold homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) levels to define insulin resistance. The purpose of this study was to describe the influence of age and gender in the estimation of HOMA-IR optimal cut-off values to identify subjects with higher cardio metabolic risk in a general adult population. Methods It included 2459 adults (range 20–92 years, 58.4% women) in a random Spanish population sample. As an accurate indicator of cardio metabolic risk, Metabolic Syndrome (MetS), both by International Diabetes Federation criteria and by Adult Treatment Panel III criteria, were used. The effect of age was analyzed in individuals with and without diabetes mellitus separately. ROC regression methodology was used to evaluate the effect of age on HOMA-IR performance in classifying cardio metabolic risk. Results In Spanish population the threshold value of HOMA-IR drops from 3.46 using 90th percentile criteria to 2.05 taking into account of MetS components. In non-diabetic women, but no in men, we found a significant non-linear effect of age on the accuracy of HOMA-IR. In non-diabetic men, the cut-off values were 1.85. All values are between 70th-75th percentiles of HOMA-IR levels in adult Spanish population. Conclusions The consideration of the cardio metabolic risk to establish the cut-off points of HOMA-IR, to define insulin resistance instead of using a percentile of the population distribution, would increase its clinical utility in identifying those patients in whom the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors imparts an increased metabolic and cardiovascular risk. The threshold levels must be modified by age in non-diabetic women. PMID:24131857

Insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) cut-off values and the metabolic syndrome in a general adult population: effect of gender and age: EPIRCE cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Gayoso-Diz, Pilar; Otero-González, Alfonso; Rodriguez-Alvarez, María Xosé; Gude, Francisco; García, Fernando; De Francisco, Angel; Quintela, Arturo González

2013-10-16

Insulin resistance has been associated with metabolic and hemodynamic alterations and higher cardio metabolic risk. There is great variability in the threshold homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) levels to define insulin resistance. The purpose of this study was to describe the influence of age and gender in the estimation of HOMA-IR optimal cut-off values to identify subjects with higher cardio metabolic risk in a general adult population. It included 2459 adults (range 20-92 years, 58.4% women) in a random Spanish population sample. As an accurate indicator of cardio metabolic risk, Metabolic Syndrome (MetS), both by International Diabetes Federation criteria and by Adult Treatment Panel III criteria, were used. The effect of age was analyzed in individuals with and without diabetes mellitus separately. ROC regression methodology was used to evaluate the effect of age on HOMA-IR performance in classifying cardio metabolic risk. In Spanish population the threshold value of HOMA-IR drops from 3.46 using 90th percentile criteria to 2.05 taking into account of MetS components. In non-diabetic women, but no in men, we found a significant non-linear effect of age on the accuracy of HOMA-IR. In non-diabetic men, the cut-off values were 1.85. All values are between 70th-75th percentiles of HOMA-IR levels in adult Spanish population. The consideration of the cardio metabolic risk to establish the cut-off points of HOMA-IR, to define insulin resistance instead of using a percentile of the population distribution, would increase its clinical utility in identifying those patients in whom the presence of multiple metabolic risk factors imparts an increased metabolic and cardiovascular risk. The threshold levels must be modified by age in non-diabetic women.

Consequences of the genetic threshold model for observing partial migration under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Cobben, Marleen M P; van Noordwijk, Arie J

2017-10-01

Migration is a widespread phenomenon across the animal kingdom as a response to seasonality in environmental conditions. Partially migratory populations are populations that consist of both migratory and residential individuals. Such populations are very common, yet their stability has long been debated. The inheritance of migratory activity is currently best described by the threshold model of quantitative genetics. The inclusion of such a genetic threshold model for migratory behavior leads to a stable zone in time and space of partially migratory populations under a wide range of demographic parameter values, when assuming stable environmental conditions and unlimited genetic diversity. Migratory species are expected to be particularly sensitive to global warming, as arrival at the breeding grounds might be increasingly mistimed as a result of the uncoupling of long-used cues and actual environmental conditions, with decreasing reproduction as a consequence. Here, we investigate the consequences for migratory behavior and the stability of partially migratory populations under five climate change scenarios and the assumption of a genetic threshold value for migratory behavior in an individual-based model. The results show a spatially and temporally stable zone of partially migratory populations after different lengths of time in all scenarios. In the scenarios in which the species expands its range from a particular set of starting populations, the genetic diversity and location at initialization determine the species' colonization speed across the zone of partial migration and therefore across the entire landscape. Abruptly changing environmental conditions after model initialization never caused a qualitative change in phenotype distributions, or complete extinction. This suggests that climate change-induced shifts in species' ranges as well as changes in survival probabilities and reproductive success can be met with flexibility in migratory behavior at the species level, which will reduce the risk of extinction.

Should we expect population thresholds for wildlife disease?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lloyd-Smith, James O.; Cross, P.C.; Briggs, C.J.; Daugherty, M.; Getz, W.M.; Latto, J.; Sanchez, M.; Smith, A.; Swei, A.

2005-01-01

Host population thresholds for invasion or persistence of infectious disease are core concepts of disease ecology, and underlie on-going and controversial disease control policies based on culling and vaccination. Empirical evidence for these thresholds in wildlife populations has been sparse, however, though recent studies have narrowed this gap. Here we review the theoretical bases for population thresholds for disease, revealing why they are difficult to measure and sometimes are not even expected, and identifying important facets of wildlife ecology left out of current theories. We discuss strengths and weaknesses of selected empirical studies that have reported disease thresholds for wildlife, identify recurring obstacles, and discuss implications of our imperfect understanding of wildlife thresholds for disease control policy.

Peanuts that keep aflatoxin at bay: a threshold that matters

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

High levels of aflatoxin in peanuts pose major health hazards for vulnerable populations of Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) and South Asia. We used two independent approaches to generate peanuts that exhibit strong resistance to both A. flavus seed infection and aflatoxin production. A high level of geneti...

Long-time cavitation threshold of silica water mixture under acoustic drive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bussonniére, Adrien; Liu, Qingxia; Tsai, Peichun Amy

2017-11-01

The low cavitation threshold of water observed experimentally has been attributed to the presence of pre-existing tiny bubbles stabilized by impurities. However, the origin and stability of these cavitation nuclei remain unresolved. We therefore investigate the long-time cavitation evolution of water seeded with micron-sized silica particles under the influences of several parameters. Experimentally, cavitation is induced by a High Intensity Focused Ultrasound and subsequently detected by monitoring the backscattered sound. Degassed or aerated solutions of different concentrations are subjected to acoustic pulses (with the amplitude ranging from 0.1 to 1.7 MPa and a fixed repetition frequency between 0.1 and 6.5 Hz). The cavitation threshold was measured by fitting the cavitation probability curve, averaged over 1000 pulses. Surprisingly, our results shown that the cavitation threshold stabilizes at a reproducible value after a few thousand pulses. Moreover, this long-time threshold was found to decrease with increasing particle concentration, pulse period, and initial oxygen level. In contrast to the depletion of nuclei expected under long acoustic cavitation, the results suggest stabilized nuclei population depending on concentration, oxygen level, and driving period.

The benefits and tradeoffs for varied high-severity injury risk thresholds for advanced automatic crash notification systems.

PubMed

Bahouth, George; Graygo, Jill; Digges, Kennerly; Schulman, Carl; Baur, Peter

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study are to (1) characterize the population of crashes meeting the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-recommended 20% risk of Injury Severity Score (ISS)>15 injury and (2) explore the positive and negative effects of an advanced automatic crash notification (AACN) system whose threshold for high-risk indications is 10% versus 20%. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to predict the occurrence of motor vehicle crash injuries at both the ISS>15 and Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 3+ level. Models were trained using crash characteristics recommended by the CDC Committee on Advanced Automatic Collision Notification and Triage of the Injured Patient. Each model was used to assign the probability of severe injury (defined as MAIS 3+ or ISS>15 injury) to a subset of NASS-CDS cases based on crash attributes. Subsequently, actual AIS and ISS levels were compared with the predicted probability of injury to determine the extent to which the seriously injured had corresponding probabilities exceeding the 10% and 20% risk thresholds. Models were developed using an 80% sample of NASS-CDS data from 2002 to 2012 and evaluations were performed using the remaining 20% of cases from the same period. Within the population of seriously injured (i.e., those having one or more AIS 3 or higher injuries), the number of occupants whose injury risk did not exceed the 10% and 20% thresholds were estimated to be 11,700 and 18,600, respectively, each year using the MAIS 3+ injury model. For the ISS>15 model, 8,100 and 11,000 occupants sustained ISS>15 injuries yet their injury probability did not reach the 10% and 20% probability for severe injury respectively. Conversely, model predictions suggested that, at the 10% and 20% thresholds, 207,700 and 55,400 drivers respectively would be incorrectly flagged as injured when their injuries had not reached the AIS 3 level. For the ISS>15 model, 87,300 and 41,900 drivers would be incorrectly flagged as injured when injury severity had not reached the ISS>15 injury level. This article provides important information comparing the expected positive and negative effects of an AACN system with thresholds at the 10% and 20% levels using 2 outcome metrics. Overall, results suggest that the 20% risk threshold would not provide a useful notification to improve the quality of care for a large number of seriously injured crash victims. Alternately, a lower threshold may increase the over triage rate. Based on the vehicle damage observed for crashes reaching and exceeding the 10% risk threshold, we anticipate that rescue services would have been deployed based on current Public Safety Answering Point (PSAP) practices.

Codimension-1 Sliding Bifurcations of a Filippov Pest Growth Model with Threshold Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Sanyi; Tang, Guangyao; Qin, Wenjie

A Filippov system is proposed to describe the stage structured nonsmooth pest growth with threshold policy control (TPC). The TPC measure is represented by the total density of both juveniles and adults being chosen as an index for decisions on when to implement chemical control strategies. The proposed Filippov system can have three pieces of sliding segments and three pseudo-equilibria, which result in rich sliding mode bifurcations and local sliding bifurcations including boundary node (boundary focus, or boundary saddle) and tangency bifurcations. As the threshold density varies the model exhibits the interesting global sliding bifurcations sequentially: touching → buckling → crossing → sliding homoclinic orbit to a pseudo-saddle → crossing → touching bifurcations. In particular, bifurcation of a homoclinic orbit to a pseudo-saddle with a figure of eight shape, to a pseudo-saddle-node or to a standard saddle-node have been observed for some parameter sets. This implies that control outcomes are sensitive to the threshold level, and hence it is crucial to choose the threshold level to initiate control strategy. One more sliding segment (or pseudo-equilibrium) is induced by the total density of a population guided switching policy, compared to only the juvenile density guided policy, implying that this control policy is more effective in terms of preventing multiple pest outbreaks or causing the density of pests to stabilize at a desired level such as an economic threshold.

A mathematical study of a model for childhood diseases with non-permanent immunity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moghadas, S. M.; Gumel, A. B.

2003-08-01

Protecting children from diseases that can be prevented by vaccination is a primary goal of health administrators. Since vaccination is considered to be the most effective strategy against childhood diseases, the development of a framework that would predict the optimal vaccine coverage level needed to prevent the spread of these diseases is crucial. This paper provides this framework via qualitative and quantitative analysis of a deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of a childhood disease in the presence of a preventive vaccine that may wane over time. Using global stability analysis of the model, based on constructing a Lyapunov function, it is shown that the disease can be eradicated from the population if the vaccination coverage level exceeds a certain threshold value. It is also shown that the disease will persist within the population if the coverage level is below this threshold. These results are verified numerically by constructing, and then simulating, a robust semi-explicit second-order finite-difference method.

Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laufenberg, Jared S.; Clark, Joseph D.; Chandler, Richard B.

2018-01-01

Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR) data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years () was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when , suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears.

PubMed

Laufenberg, Jared S; Clark, Joseph D; Chandler, Richard B

2018-01-01

Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR) data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years ([Formula: see text]) was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when [Formula: see text], suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

Projections for Achieving the Lancet Commission Recommended Surgical Rate of 5000 Operations per 100,000 Population by Region-Specific Surgical Rate Estimates.

PubMed

Uribe-Leitz, Tarsicio; Esquivel, Micaela M; Molina, George; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Verguet, Stéphane; Rose, John; Bickler, Stephen W; Gawande, Atul A; Haynes, Alex B; Weiser, Thomas G

2015-09-01

We previously identified a range of 4344-5028 annual operations per 100,000 people to be related to desirable health outcomes. From this and other evidence, the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery recommends a minimum rate of 5000 operations per 100,000 people. We evaluate rates of growth and estimate the time it will take to reach this minimum surgical rate threshold. We aggregated country-level surgical rate estimates from 2004 to 2012 into the twenty-one Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. We calculated mean rates of surgery proportional to population size for each year and assessed the rate of growth over time. We then extrapolated the time it will take each region to reach a surgical rate of 5000 operations per 100,000 population based on linear rates of change. All but two regions experienced growth in their surgical rates during the past 8 years. Fourteen regions did not meet the recommended threshold in 2012. If surgical capacity continues to grow at current rates, seven regions will not meet the threshold by 2035. Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa will not reach the recommended threshold until 2124. The rates of growth in surgical service delivery are exceedingly variable. At current rates of surgical and population growth, 6.2 billion people (73% of the world's population) will be living in countries below the minimum recommended rate of surgical care in 2035. A strategy for strengthening surgical capacity is essential if these targets are to be met in a timely fashion as part of the integrated health system development.

Comparison of Intrinsic Rate of Different House Fly Densities in a Simulated Condition: A Prediction for House Fly Population and Control Threshold.

PubMed

Ong, Song-Quan; Ahmad, Hamdan; Jaal, Zairi; Rus, Adanan; Fadzlah, Fadhlina Hazwani Mohd

2017-01-01

Determining the control threshold for a pest is common prior to initiating a pest control program; however, previous studies related to the house fly control threshold for a poultry farm are insufficient for determining such a threshold. This study aimed to predict the population changes of house fly population by comparing the intrinsic rate of increase (r m ) for different house fly densities in a simulated system. This study first defined the knee points of a known population growth curve as a control threshold by comparing the r m of five densities of house flies in a simulated condition. Later, to understand the interactions between the larval and adult populations, the correlation between larval and adult capacity rate (r c ) was studied. The r m values of 300- and 500-fly densities were significantly higher compared with the r m values at densities of 50 and 100 flies. This result indicated their representative indices as candidates for a control threshold. The r c of larval and adult populations were negatively correlated with densities of fewer than 300 flies; this implicated adult populations with fewer than 300 flies as declining while the larval population was growing; therefore, control approaches should focus on the immature stages. The results in the present study suggest a control threshold for house fly populations. Future works should focus on calibrating the threshold indices in field conditions. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Linear-No-Threshold Default Assumptions for Noncancer and Nongenotoxic Cancer Risks: A Mathematical and Biological Critique.

PubMed

Bogen, Kenneth T

2016-03-01

To improve U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) dose-response (DR) assessments for noncarcinogens and for nonlinear mode of action (MOA) carcinogens, the 2009 NRC Science and Decisions Panel recommended that the adjustment-factor approach traditionally applied to these endpoints should be replaced by a new default assumption that both endpoints have linear-no-threshold (LNT) population-wide DR relationships. The panel claimed this new approach is warranted because population DR is LNT when any new dose adds to a background dose that explains background levels of risk, and/or when there is substantial interindividual heterogeneity in susceptibility in the exposed human population. Mathematically, however, the first claim is either false or effectively meaningless and the second claim is false. Any dose-and population-response relationship that is statistically consistent with an LNT relationship may instead be an additive mixture of just two quasi-threshold DR relationships, which jointly exhibit low-dose S-shaped, quasi-threshold nonlinearity just below the lower end of the observed "linear" dose range. In this case, LNT extrapolation would necessarily overestimate increased risk by increasingly large relative magnitudes at diminishing values of above-background dose. The fact that chemically-induced apoptotic cell death occurs by unambiguously nonlinear, quasi-threshold DR mechanisms is apparent from recent data concerning this quintessential toxicity endpoint. The 2009 NRC Science and Decisions Panel claims and recommendations that default LNT assumptions be applied to DR assessment for noncarcinogens and nonlinear MOA carcinogens are therefore not justified either mathematically or biologically. © 2015 The Author. Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Threshold-dependent sample sizes for selenium assessment with stream fish tissue

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Smith, David R.

2015-01-01

Natural resource managers are developing assessments of selenium (Se) contamination in freshwater ecosystems based on fish tissue concentrations. We evaluated the effects of sample size (i.e., number of fish per site) on the probability of correctly detecting mean whole-body Se values above a range of potential management thresholds. We modeled Se concentrations as gamma distributions with shape and scale parameters fitting an empirical mean-to-variance relationship in data from southwestern West Virginia, USA (63 collections, 382 individuals). We used parametric bootstrapping techniques to calculate statistical power as the probability of detecting true mean concentrations up to 3 mg Se/kg above management thresholds ranging from 4 to 8 mg Se/kg. Sample sizes required to achieve 80% power varied as a function of management thresholds and Type I error tolerance (α). Higher thresholds required more samples than lower thresholds because populations were more heterogeneous at higher mean Se levels. For instance, to assess a management threshold of 4 mg Se/kg, a sample of eight fish could detect an increase of approximately 1 mg Se/kg with 80% power (given α = 0.05), but this sample size would be unable to detect such an increase from a management threshold of 8 mg Se/kg with more than a coin-flip probability. Increasing α decreased sample size requirements to detect above-threshold mean Se concentrations with 80% power. For instance, at an α-level of 0.05, an 8-fish sample could detect an increase of approximately 2 units above a threshold of 8 mg Se/kg with 80% power, but when α was relaxed to 0.2, this sample size was more sensitive to increasing mean Se concentrations, allowing detection of an increase of approximately 1.2 units with equivalent power. Combining individuals into 2- and 4-fish composite samples for laboratory analysis did not decrease power because the reduced number of laboratory samples was compensated for by increased precision of composites for estimating mean conditions. However, low sample sizes (<5 fish) did not achieve 80% power to detect near-threshold values (i.e., <1 mg Se/kg) under any scenario we evaluated. This analysis can assist the sampling design and interpretation of Se assessments from fish tissue by accounting for natural variation in stream fish populations.

Pool desiccation and developmental thresholds in the common frog, Rana temporaria.

PubMed

Lind, Martin I; Persbo, Frida; Johansson, Frank

2008-05-07

The developmental threshold is the minimum size or condition that a developing organism must have reached in order for a life-history transition to occur. Although developmental thresholds have been observed for many organisms, inter-population variation among natural populations has not been examined. Since isolated populations can be subjected to strong divergent selection, population divergence in developmental thresholds can be predicted if environmental conditions favour fast or slow developmental time in different populations. Amphibian metamorphosis is a well-studied life-history transition, and using a common garden approach we compared the development time and the developmental threshold of metamorphosis in four island populations of the common frog Rana temporaria: two populations originating from islands with only temporary breeding pools and two from islands with permanent pools. As predicted, tadpoles from time-constrained temporary pools had a genetically shorter development time than those from permanent pools. Furthermore, the variation in development time among females from temporary pools was low, consistent with the action of selection on rapid development in this environment. However, there were no clear differences in the developmental thresholds between the populations, indicating that the main response to life in a temporary pool is to shorten the development time.

Digital music exposure reliably induces temporary threshold shift (TTS) in normal hearing human subjects

PubMed Central

Le Prell, C. G.; Dell, S.; Hensley, B.; Hall, J. W.; Campbell, K. C. M.; Antonelli, P. J.; Green, G. E.; Miller, J. M.; Guire, K.

2012-01-01

Objectives One of the challenges for evaluating new otoprotective agents for potential benefit in human populations is availability of an established clinical paradigm with real world relevance. These studies were explicitly designed to develop a real-world digital music exposure that reliably induces temporary threshold shift (TTS) in normal hearing human subjects. Design Thirty-three subjects participated in studies that measured effects of digital music player use on hearing. Subjects selected either rock or pop music, which was then presented at 93–95 (n=10), 98–100 (n=11), or 100–102 (n=12) dBA in-ear exposure level for a period of four hours. Audiograms and distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs) were measured prior to and after music exposure. Post-music tests were initiated 15 min, 1 hr 15 min, 2 hr 15 min, and 3 hr 15 min after the exposure ended. Additional tests were conducted the following day and one week later. Results Changes in thresholds after the lowest level exposure were difficult to distinguish from test-retest variability; however, TTS was reliably detected after higher levels of sound exposure. Changes in audiometric thresholds had a “notch” configuration, with the largest changes observed at 4 kHz (mean=6.3±3.9dB; range=0–13 dB). Recovery was largely complete within the first 4 hours post-exposure, and all subjects showed complete recovery of both thresholds and DPOAE measures when tested 1-week post-exposure. Conclusions These data provide insight into the variability of TTS induced by music player use in a healthy, normal-hearing, young adult population, with music playlist, level, and duration carefully controlled. These data confirm the likelihood of temporary changes in auditory function following digital music player use. Such data are essential for the development of a human clinical trial protocol that provides a highly powered design for evaluating novel therapeutics in human clinical trials. Care must be taken to fully inform potential subjects in future TTS studies, including protective agent evaluations, that some noise exposures have resulted in neural degeneration in animal models, even when both audiometric thresholds and DPOAE levels returned to pre-exposure values. PMID:22885407

Uniqueness of Nash equilibrium in vaccination games.

PubMed

Bai, Fan

2016-12-01

One crucial condition for the uniqueness of Nash equilibrium set in vaccination games is that the attack ratio monotonically decreases as the vaccine coverage level increasing. We consider several deterministic vaccination models in homogeneous mixing population and in heterogeneous mixing population. Based on the final size relations obtained from the deterministic epidemic models, we prove that the attack ratios can be expressed in terms of the vaccine coverage levels, and also prove that the attack ratios are decreasing functions of vaccine coverage levels. Some thresholds are presented, which depend on the vaccine efficacy. It is proved that for vaccination games in homogeneous mixing population, there is a unique Nash equilibrium for each game.

Incorporating ecologically relevant habitat and demographic data in assessment of contaminant risk to wildlife

EPA Science Inventory

Evaluating population-level effects of contamination on wildlife requires specific information on habitat quality, species distribution, and contaminant concentration. Establishing broadly applicable thresholds for risk assessment involves an understanding of the applicability o...

Beverton-Holt discrete pest management models with pulsed chemical control and evolution of pesticide resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Juhua; Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A.

2016-07-01

Pest resistance to pesticides is usually managed by switching between different types of pesticides. The optimal switching time, which depends on the dynamics of the pest population and on the evolution of the pesticide resistance, is critical. Here we address how the dynamic complexity of the pest population, the development of resistance and the spraying frequency of pulsed chemical control affect optimal switching strategies given different control aims. To do this, we developed novel discrete pest population growth models with both impulsive chemical control and the evolution of pesticide resistance. Strong and weak threshold conditions which guarantee the extinction of the pest population, based on the threshold values of the analytical formula for the optimal switching time, were derived. Further, we addressed switching strategies in the light of chosen economic injury levels. Moreover, the effects of the complex dynamical behaviour of the pest population on the pesticide switching times were also studied. The pesticide application period, the evolution of pesticide resistance and the dynamic complexity of the pest population may result in complex outbreak patterns, with consequent effects on the pesticide switching strategies.

Uncertainties in extreme surge level estimates from observational records.

PubMed

van den Brink, H W; Können, G P; Opsteegh, J D

2005-06-15

Ensemble simulations with a total length of 7540 years are generated with a climate model, and coupled to a simple surge model to transform the wind field over the North Sea to the skew surge level at Delfzijl, The Netherlands. The 65 constructed surge records, each with a record length of 116 years, are analysed with the generalized extreme value (GEV) and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to study both the model and sample uncertainty in surge level estimates with a return period of 104 years, as derived from 116-year records. The optimal choice of the threshold, needed for an unbiased GPD estimate from peak over threshold (POT) values, cannot be determined objectively from a 100-year dataset. This fact, in combination with the sensitivity of the GPD estimate to the threshold, and its tendency towards too low estimates, leaves the application of the GEV distribution to storm-season maxima as the best approach. If the GPD analysis is applied, then the exceedance rate, lambda, chosen should not be larger than 4. The climate model hints at the existence of a second population of very intense storms. As the existence of such a second population can never be excluded from a 100-year record, the estimated 104-year wind-speed from such records has always to be interpreted as a lower limit.

No Association Between Time of Onset of Hearing Loss (Childhood Versus Adulthood) and Self-Reported Hearing Handicap in Adults.

PubMed

Aarhus, Lisa; Tambs, Kristian; Engdahl, Bo

2015-12-01

This study examined the association between time of onset of hearing loss (childhood vs. adulthood) and self-reported hearing handicap in adults. This is a population-based cohort study of 2,024 adults (mean = 48 years) with hearing loss (binaural pure-tone average 0.5-4 kHz ≥ 20 dB HL) who completed a hearing handicap questionnaire. In childhood, the same persons (N = 2,024) underwent audiometry in a school investigation (at ages 7, 10, and 13 years), in which 129 were diagnosed with sensorineural hearing loss (binaural pure-tone average 0.5-4 kHz ≥ 20 dB HL), whereas 1,895 had normal hearing thresholds. Hearing handicap was measured in adulthood as the sum-score of various speech perception and social impairment items (15 items). The sum-score increased with adult hearing threshold level (p < .001). After adjustment for adult hearing threshold level, hearing aid use, adult age, sex, and socioeconomic status, there was no significant difference in hearing handicap sum-score between the group with childhood-onset hearing loss (n = 129) and the group with adult-onset hearing loss (n = 1,895; p = .882). Self-reported hearing handicap in adults increased with hearing threshold level. After adjustment for adult hearing threshold level, this cohort study revealed no significant association between time of onset of hearing loss (childhood vs. adulthood) and self-reported hearing handicap.

No Association Between Time of Onset of Hearing Loss (Childhood Versus Adulthood) and Self-Reported Hearing Handicap in Adults

PubMed Central

Tambs, Kristian; Engdahl, Bo

2015-01-01

Purpose This study examined the association between time of onset of hearing loss (childhood vs. adulthood) and self-reported hearing handicap in adults. Methods This is a population-based cohort study of 2,024 adults (mean = 48 years) with hearing loss (binaural pure-tone average 0.5–4 kHz ≥ 20 dB HL) who completed a hearing handicap questionnaire. In childhood, the same persons (N = 2,024) underwent audiometry in a school investigation (at ages 7, 10, and 13 years), in which 129 were diagnosed with sensorineural hearing loss (binaural pure-tone average 0.5–4 kHz ≥ 20 dB HL), whereas 1,895 had normal hearing thresholds. Results Hearing handicap was measured in adulthood as the sum-score of various speech perception and social impairment items (15 items). The sum-score increased with adult hearing threshold level (p < .001). After adjustment for adult hearing threshold level, hearing aid use, adult age, sex, and socioeconomic status, there was no significant difference in hearing handicap sum-score between the group with childhood-onset hearing loss (n = 129) and the group with adult-onset hearing loss (n = 1,895; p = .882). Conclusion Self-reported hearing handicap in adults increased with hearing threshold level. After adjustment for adult hearing threshold level, this cohort study revealed no significant association between time of onset of hearing loss (childhood vs. adulthood) and self-reported hearing handicap. PMID:26649831

Release from bats: genetic distance and sensoribehavioural regression in the Pacific field cricket, Teleogryllus oceanicus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fullard, James H.; Ter Hofstede, Hannah M.; Ratcliffe, John M.; Pollack, Gerald S.; Brigidi, Gian S.; Tinghitella, Robin M.; Zuk, Marlene

2010-01-01

The auditory thresholds of the AN2 interneuron and the behavioural thresholds of the anti-bat flight-steering responses that this cell evokes are less sensitive in female Pacific field crickets that live where bats have never existed (Moorea) compared with individuals subjected to intense levels of bat predation (Australia). In contrast, the sensitivity of the auditory interneuron, ON1 which participates in the processing of both social signals and bat calls, and the thresholds for flight orientation to a model of the calling song of male crickets show few differences between the two populations. Genetic analyses confirm that the two populations are significantly distinct, and we conclude that the absence of bats has caused partial regression in the nervous control of a defensive behaviour in this insect. This study represents the first examination of natural evolutionary regression in the neural basis of a behaviour along a selection gradient within a single species.

Longitudinal Comparison of Auditory Steady-State Evoked Potentials in Preterm and Term Infants: The Maturation Process

PubMed Central

Sousa, Ana Constantino; Didoné, Dayane Domeneghini; Sleifer, Pricila

2017-01-01

Introduction  Preterm neonates are at risk of changes in their auditory system development, which explains the need for auditory monitoring of this population. The Auditory Steady-State Response (ASSR) is an objective method that allows obtaining the electrophysiological thresholds with greater applicability in neonatal and pediatric population. Objective  The purpose of this study is to compare the ASSR thresholds in preterm and term infants evaluated during two stages. Method  The study included 63 normal hearing neonates: 33 preterm and 30 term. They underwent assessment of ASSR in both ears simultaneously through insert phones in the frequencies of 500 to 4000Hz with the amplitude modulated from 77 to 103Hz. We presented the intensity at a decreasing level to detect the minimum level of responses. At 18 months, 26 of 33 preterm infants returned for the new assessment for ASSR and were compared with 30 full-term infants. We compared between groups according to gestational age. Results  Electrophysiological thresholds were higher in preterm than in full-term neonates ( p  < 0.05) at the first testing. There were no significant differences between ears and gender. At 18 months, there was no difference between groups ( p  > 0.05) in all the variables described. Conclusion  In the first evaluation preterm had higher thresholds in ASSR. There was no difference at 18 months of age, showing the auditory maturation of preterm infants throughout their development. PMID:28680486

Extinction-effective population index: incorporating life-history variations in population viability analysis.

PubMed

Fujiwara, Masami

2007-09-01

Viability status of populations is a commonly used measure for decision-making in the management of populations. One of the challenges faced by managers is the need to consistently allocate management effort among populations. This allocation should in part be based on comparison of extinction risks among populations. Unfortunately, common criteria that use minimum viable population size or count-based population viability analysis (PVA) often do not provide results that are comparable among populations, primarily because they lack consistency in determining population size measures and threshold levels of population size (e.g., minimum viable population size and quasi-extinction threshold). Here I introduce a new index called the "extinction-effective population index," which accounts for differential effects of demographic stochasticity among organisms with different life-history strategies and among individuals in different life stages. This index is expected to become a new way of determining minimum viable population size criteria and also complement the count-based PVA. The index accounts for the difference in life-history strategies of organisms, which are modeled using matrix population models. The extinction-effective population index, sensitivity, and elasticity are demonstrated in three species of Pacific salmonids. The interpretation of the index is also provided by comparing them with existing demographic indices. Finally, a measure of life-history-specific effect of demographic stochasticity is derived.

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations.

PubMed

Hardstaff, Joanne L; Bulling, Mark T; Marion, Glenn; Hutchings, Michael R; White, Piran C L

2012-06-27

The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6-8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection.

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. Results The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6–8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. Conclusions External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection. PMID:22738118

Prenatal exposure of Canadian children to polychlorinated biphenyls and mercury.

PubMed

Muckle, G; Dewailly, E; Ayotte, P

1998-01-01

This article documents the exposure to environmental contaminants within sub-groups of the Canadian population who are considered to be at risk as a result of the food they eat. We measured the concentrations of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and mercury in the blood drawn from the umbilical cords of newborns in various Aboriginal communities, in a coastal community and in the general population. Average concentrations of Aroclor 1260 ranged between 0.3 and 2.0 micrograms/L and were clearly highest among the Inuit of Nunavik and Baffin Island and among the Montagnais of Quebec. In these groups, we found contaminant levels in the blood of newborns that exceed the threshold beyond which cognitive impairments are expected to result. Average concentrations of mercury ranged between 1.0 and 14.2 micrograms/L; the Inuit of Nunavik and the NWT exhibited the highest exposure levels. A portion of the Nunavik and NWT Inuit had concentrations beyond the critical threshold for the appearance of neurological consequences. The variations in exposure levels resulted from the different nutritional practices of these Canadian sub-groups.

Mercury in Forage Fish from Mexico and Central America: Implications for Fish-Eating Birds.

PubMed

Elliott, John E; Kirk, David A; Elliott, Kyle H; Dorzinsky, Jessica; Lee, Sandi; Inzunza, Ernesto Ruelas; Cheng, Kimberly M T; Scheuhammer, Tony; Shaw, Patrick

2015-11-01

Mercury (Hg) is a global contaminant of aquatic food chains. Aquatic birds, such as the osprey (Pandion haliaetus), with migratory populations breeding in Canada and the northern United States and wintering in the Central and South America, can be exposed to mercury on both the breeding and wintering ranges. We examined Hg levels in 14 fish taxa from 24 osprey wintering sites identified from satellite telemetry. Our main goal was to determine whether fish species that feature in the diet of overwintering and resident fish-eating birds reached toxicity thresholds for Hg. Mean Hg levels in fish whole carcasses ranged from a high of 0.18 µg g(-1) (wet weight) in Scomberomorus sierra to a low of 0.009 µg g(-1) in Catostomidae. Average Hg levels were within published toxicity threshold values in forage fish for only two sites in Mexico (Puerto Vallarta and San Blas Estuary), and all were marine species, such as mackerel (Scomberomorus sierra), sea catfish (Ariopus spp.), and sardinas species (Centropomus spp.). Except for one sample from Nicaragua, sea catfish from Puerto Morazan, none of the fish from sites in Central America had Hg levels which exceeded the thresholds. Nonmetric multidimensional scaling revealed geographical differences in Hg levels with significant pairwise differences between sites along the Pacific Ocean (Mexico) versus the Bay of Campeche, partly due to differences in species composition of sampled fish (and species distributions). Hg increased with trophic level, as assessed by nitrogen stable isotope ratios (δ(15)N but not δ(13)C), in freshwater and marine, but not estuarine, environments. Hg concentrations in forage fish do not account for the elevated Hg reported for many osprey populations on the breeding grounds, thus primary sources of contamination appear to be in the north.

Modeling of noise pollution and estimated human exposure around İstanbul Atatürk Airport in Turkey.

PubMed

Ozkurt, Nesimi; Sari, Deniz; Akdag, Ali; Kutukoglu, Murat; Gurarslan, Aliye

2014-06-01

The level of aircraft noise exposure around İstanbul Atatürk Airport was calculated according to the European Noise Directive. These calculations were based on the actual flight data for each flight in the year 2011. The study area was selected to cover of 25km radius centered on the Aerodrome Reference Point of the airport. The geographical data around İstanbul Atatürk Airport was used to prepare elevation, residential building, auxiliary building, hospital and school layers in SoundPlan software. It was found that 1.2% of the land area of İstanbul City exceeds the threshold of 55dB(A) during daytime. However, when the exceedance of threshold of 65dB(A)is investigated, the affected area is found quite small (0.2% of land area of city). About 0.3% of the land area of İstanbul City has noise levels exceeding 55dB(A) during night-time. Our results show that about 4% of the resident population was exposed to 55dB(A) or higher noises during daytime in İstanbul. When applying the second threshhold criteria, nearly 1% of the population is exposed to noise levels greater than 65dB(A). At night-time, 1.3% of the population is exposed to 55dB(A) or higher noise levels. © 2013.

Extended high-frequency thresholds in college students: effects of music player use and other recreational noise.

PubMed

Le Prell, Colleen G; Spankovich, Christopher; Lobariñas, Edward; Griffiths, Scott K

2013-09-01

Human hearing is sensitive to sounds from as low as 20 Hz to as high as 20,000 Hz in normal ears. However, clinical tests of human hearing rarely include extended high-frequency (EHF) threshold assessments, at frequencies extending beyond 8000 Hz. EHF thresholds have been suggested for use monitoring the earliest effects of noise on the inner ear, although the clinical usefulness of EHF threshold testing is not well established for this purpose. The primary objective of this study was to determine if EHF thresholds in healthy, young adult college students vary as a function of recreational noise exposure. A retrospective analysis of a laboratory database was conducted; all participants with both EHF threshold testing and noise history data were included. The potential for "preclinical" EHF deficits was assessed based on the measured thresholds, with the noise surveys used to estimate recreational noise exposure. EHF thresholds measured during participation in other ongoing studies were available from 87 participants (34 male and 53 female); all participants had hearing within normal clinical limits (≤25 HL) at conventional frequencies (0.25-8 kHz). EHF thresholds closely matched standard reference thresholds [ANSI S3.6 (1996) Annex C]. There were statistically reliable threshold differences in participants who used music players, with 3-6 dB worse thresholds at the highest test frequencies (10-16 kHz) in participants who reported long-term use of music player devices (>5 yr), or higher listening levels during music player use. It should be possible to detect small changes in high-frequency hearing for patients or participants who undergo repeated testing at periodic intervals. However, the increased population-level variability in thresholds at the highest frequencies will make it difficult to identify the presence of small but potentially important deficits in otherwise normal-hearing individuals who do not have previously established baseline data. American Academy of Audiology.

Transmission intensity and drug resistance in malaria population dynamics: implications for climate change.

PubMed

Artzy-Randrup, Yael; Alonso, David; Pascual, Mercedes

2010-10-26

Although the spread of drug resistance and the influence of climate change on malaria are most often considered separately, these factors have the potential to interact through altered levels of transmission intensity. The influence of transmission intensity on the evolution of drug resistance has been addressed in theoretical studies from a population genetics' perspective; less is known however on how epidemiological dynamics at the population level modulates this influence. We ask from a theoretical perspective, whether population dynamics can explain non-trivial, non-monotonic, patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity, and, if so, under what conditions. We then address the implications of warmer temperatures in an East African highland, where, as in other similar regions at the altitudinal edge of malaria's distribution, there has been a pronounced increase of cases from the 1970s to the 1990s. Our theoretical analyses, with a transmission model that includes different levels of immunity, demonstrate that an increase in transmission beyond a threshold can lead to a decrease in drug resistance, as previously shown, but that a second threshold may occur and lead to the re-establishment of drug resistance. Estimates of the increase in transmission intensity from the 1970s to the 1990s for the Kenyan time series, obtained by fitting the two-stage version of the model with an explicit representation of vector dynamics, suggest that warmer temperatures are likely to have moved the system towards the first threshold, and in so doing, to have promoted the faster spread of drug resistance. Climate change and drug resistance can interact and need not be considered as alternative explanations for trends in disease incidence in this region. Non-monotonic patterns of treatment failure with transmission intensity similar to those described as the 'valley phenomenon' for Uganda can result from epidemiological dynamics but under poorly understood assumptions.

Analysis of the Spatial Organization of Pastures as a Contact Network, Implications for Potential Disease Spread and Biosecurity in Livestock, France, 2010.

PubMed

Palisson, Aurore; Courcoul, Aurélie; Durand, Benoit

2017-01-01

The use of pastures is part of common herd management practices for livestock animals, but contagion between animals located on neighbouring pastures is one of the major modes of infectious disease transmission between herds. At the population level, this transmission is strongly constrained by the spatial organization of pastures. The aim of this study was to answer two questions: (i) is the spatial configuration of pastures favourable to the spread of infectious diseases in France? (ii) would biosecurity measures allow decreasing this vulnerability? Based on GIS data, the spatial organization of pastures was represented using networks. Nodes were the 3,159,787 pastures reported in 2010 by the French breeders to claim the Common Agricultural Policy subsidies. Links connected pastures when the distance between them was below a predefined threshold. Premises networks were obtained by aggregating into a single node all the pastures under the same ownership. Although the pastures network was very fragmented when the distance threshold was short (1.5 meters, relevant for a directly-transmitted disease), it was not the case when the distance threshold was larger (500 m, relevant for a vector-borne disease: 97% of the nodes in the largest connected component). The premises network was highly connected as the largest connected component always included more than 83% of the nodes, whatever the distance threshold. Percolation analyses were performed to model the population-level efficacy of biosecurity measures. Percolation thresholds varied according to the modelled biosecurity measures and to the distance threshold. They were globally high (e.g. >17% of nodes had to be removed, mimicking the confinement of animals inside farm buildings, to obtain the disappearance of the large connected component). The network of pastures thus appeared vulnerable to the spread of diseases in France. Only a large acceptance of biosecurity measures by breeders would allow reducing this structural risk.

Analysis of the Spatial Organization of Pastures as a Contact Network, Implications for Potential Disease Spread and Biosecurity in Livestock, France, 2010

PubMed Central

Palisson, Aurore; Courcoul, Aurélie; Durand, Benoit

2017-01-01

The use of pastures is part of common herd management practices for livestock animals, but contagion between animals located on neighbouring pastures is one of the major modes of infectious disease transmission between herds. At the population level, this transmission is strongly constrained by the spatial organization of pastures. The aim of this study was to answer two questions: (i) is the spatial configuration of pastures favourable to the spread of infectious diseases in France? (ii) would biosecurity measures allow decreasing this vulnerability? Based on GIS data, the spatial organization of pastures was represented using networks. Nodes were the 3,159,787 pastures reported in 2010 by the French breeders to claim the Common Agricultural Policy subsidies. Links connected pastures when the distance between them was below a predefined threshold. Premises networks were obtained by aggregating into a single node all the pastures under the same ownership. Although the pastures network was very fragmented when the distance threshold was short (1.5 meters, relevant for a directly-transmitted disease), it was not the case when the distance threshold was larger (500 m, relevant for a vector-borne disease: 97% of the nodes in the largest connected component). The premises network was highly connected as the largest connected component always included more than 83% of the nodes, whatever the distance threshold. Percolation analyses were performed to model the population-level efficacy of biosecurity measures. Percolation thresholds varied according to the modelled biosecurity measures and to the distance threshold. They were globally high (e.g. >17% of nodes had to be removed, mimicking the confinement of animals inside farm buildings, to obtain the disappearance of the large connected component). The network of pastures thus appeared vulnerable to the spread of diseases in France. Only a large acceptance of biosecurity measures by breeders would allow reducing this structural risk. PMID:28060913

High-frequency profile in adolescents and its relationship with the use of personal stereo devices.

PubMed

Silvestre, Renata Almeida Araújo; Ribas, Ângela; Hammerschmidt, Rogério; de Lacerda, Adriana Bender Moreira

2016-01-01

To analyze and correlate the audiometric findings of high frequencies (9-16 kHz) in adolescents with their hearing habits and attitudes, in order to prevent noise-induced hearing loss. This was a descriptive cross-sectional study, which included 125 adolescents in a sample of normal-hearing students, at a state school. The subjects performed high-frequency audiometry testing and answered a self-administered questionnaire addressing information on sound habits concerning the use of personal stereo devices. The sample was divided according to the exposure characteristics (time, duration, intensity, etc.) and the results were compared with the observed thresholds, through the difference in proportions test, chi-squared, Student's t-test, and ANOVA, all at a significance level of 0.05. Average high-frequency thresholds were registered below 15 dB HL and no significant correlation was found between high frequency audiometric findings and the degree of exposure. The prevalence of harmful sound habits due to the use of personal stereo devices is high in the adolescent population, but there was no correlation between exposure to high sound pressure levels through personal stereos and the high-frequency thresholds in this population. Copyright © 2016 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

An objective method for measuring face detection thresholds using the sweep steady-state visual evoked response

PubMed Central

Ales, Justin M.; Farzin, Faraz; Rossion, Bruno; Norcia, Anthony M.

2012-01-01

We introduce a sensitive method for measuring face detection thresholds rapidly, objectively, and independently of low-level visual cues. The method is based on the swept parameter steady-state visual evoked potential (ssVEP), in which a stimulus is presented at a specific temporal frequency while parametrically varying (“sweeping”) the detectability of the stimulus. Here, the visibility of a face image was increased by progressive derandomization of the phase spectra of the image in a series of equally spaced steps. Alternations between face and fully randomized images at a constant rate (3/s) elicit a robust first harmonic response at 3 Hz specific to the structure of the face. High-density EEG was recorded from 10 human adult participants, who were asked to respond with a button-press as soon as they detected a face. The majority of participants produced an evoked response at the first harmonic (3 Hz) that emerged abruptly between 30% and 35% phase-coherence of the face, which was most prominent on right occipito-temporal sites. Thresholds for face detection were estimated reliably in single participants from 15 trials, or on each of the 15 individual face trials. The ssVEP-derived thresholds correlated with the concurrently measured perceptual face detection thresholds. This first application of the sweep VEP approach to high-level vision provides a sensitive and objective method that could be used to measure and compare visual perception thresholds for various object shapes and levels of categorization in different human populations, including infants and individuals with developmental delay. PMID:23024355

Forecast-based interventions can reduce the health and economic burden of wildfires.

PubMed

Rappold, Ana G; Fann, Neal L; Crooks, James; Huang, Jin; Cascio, Wayne E; Devlin, Robert B; Diaz-Sanchez, David

2014-09-16

We simulated public health forecast-based interventions during a wildfire smoke episode in rural North Carolina to show the potential for use of modeled smoke forecasts toward reducing the health burden and showed a significant economic benefit of reducing exposures. Daily and county wide intervention advisories were designed to occur when fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from smoke, forecasted 24 or 48 h in advance, was expected to exceed a predetermined threshold. Three different thresholds were considered in simulations, each with three different levels of adherence to the advisories. Interventions were simulated in the adult population susceptible to health exacerbations related to the chronic conditions of asthma and congestive heart failure. Associations between Emergency Department (ED) visits for these conditions and daily PM2.5 concentrations under each intervention were evaluated. Triggering interventions at lower PM2.5 thresholds (≤ 20 μg/m(3)) with good compliance yielded the greatest risk reduction. At the highest threshold levels (50 μg/m(3)) interventions were ineffective in reducing health risks at any level of compliance. The economic benefit of effective interventions exceeded $1 M in excess ED visits for asthma and heart failure, $2 M in loss of productivity, $100 K in respiratory conditions in children, and $42 million due to excess mortality.

Defining thresholds of sustainable impact on benthic communities in relation to fishing disturbance.

PubMed

Lambert, G I; Murray, L G; Hiddink, J G; Hinz, H; Lincoln, H; Hold, N; Cambiè, G; Kaiser, M J

2017-07-14

While the direct physical impact on seabed biota is well understood, no studies have defined thresholds to inform an ecosystem-based approach to managing fishing impacts. We addressed this knowledge gap using a large-scale experiment that created a controlled gradient of fishing intensity and assessed the immediate impacts and short-term recovery. We observed a mosaic of taxon-specific responses at various thresholds. The lowest threshold of significant lasting impact occurred between 1 and 3 times fished and elicited a decrease in abundance of 39 to 70% for some sessile epifaunal organisms (cnidarians, bryozoans). This contrasted with significant increases in abundance and/or biomass of scavenging species (epifaunal echinoderms, infaunal crustaceans) by two to four-fold in areas fished twice and more. In spite of these significant specific responses, the benthic community structure, biomass and abundance at the population level appeared resilient to fishing. Overall, natural temporal variation in community metrics exceeded the effects of fishing in this highly dynamic study site, suggesting that an acute level of disturbance (fished over six times) would match the level of natural variation. We discuss the implications of our findings for natural resources management with respect to context-specific human disturbance and provide guidance for best fishing practices.

Determining median urinary iodine concentration that indicates adequate iodine intake at population level.

PubMed Central

Delange, François; de Benoist, Bruno; Burgi, Hans

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Urinary iodine concentration is the prime indicator of nutritional iodine status and is used to evaluate population-based iodine supplementation. In 1994, WHO, UNICEF and ICCIDD recommended median urinary iodine concentrations for populations of 100- 200 micro g/l, assuming the 100 micro g/l threshold would limit concentrations <50 micro g/l to 100 micro g/l. The total population was 55 892, including 35 661 (64%) schoolchildren. Median urinary iodine concentrations were 111-540 (median 201) micro g/l for all populations, 100-199 micro g/l in 23 (48%) populations and >/=200 micro g/l in 25 (52%). The frequencies of values <50 micro g/l were 0-20.8 (mean 4.8%) overall and 7.2% and 2.5% in populations with medians of 100-199 micro g/l and >200 micro g/l, respectively. The frequency reached 20% only in two places where iodine had been supplemented for <2 years. CONCLUSION: The frequency of urinary iodine concentrations <50 micro g/l in populations with median urinary iodine concentrations >/=100 micro g/l has been overestimated. The threshold of 100 micro g/l does not need to be increased. In populations, median urinary iodine concentrations of 100-200 micro g/l indicate adequate iodine intake and optimal iodine nutrition. PMID:12219154

Size and stochasticity in irrigated social-ecological systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puy, Arnald; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Balbo, Andrea L.

2017-03-01

This paper presents a systematic study of the relation between the size of irrigation systems and the management of uncertainty. We specifically focus on studying, through a stylized theoretical model, how stochasticity in water availability and taxation interacts with the stochastic behavior of the population within irrigation systems. Our results indicate the existence of two key population thresholds for the sustainability of any irrigation system: or the critical population size required to keep the irrigation system operative, and N* or the population threshold at which the incentive to work inside the irrigation system equals the incentives to work elsewhere. Crossing irretrievably leads to system collapse. N* is the population level with a sub-optimal per capita payoff towards which irrigation systems tend to gravitate. When subjected to strong stochasticity in water availability or taxation, irrigation systems might suffer sharp population drops and irreversibly disintegrate into a system collapse, via a mechanism we dub ‘collapse trap’. Our conceptual study establishes the basis for further work aiming at appraising the dynamics between size and stochasticity in irrigation systems, whose understanding is key for devising mitigation and adaptation measures to ensure their sustainability in the face of increasing and inevitable uncertainty.

Some observations on the nature of the audiometric 4000 hz notch: data from 3430 veterans.

PubMed

Wilson, Richard H

2011-01-01

Pure-tone, air-conduction audiograms notched at 4000 Hz have long been considered the signature configuration for noise-induced hearing loss even though there is an extensive literature that does not mesh with this simple explanation. There are many reports of notched audiograms from individuals with no history of noise exposure and, conversely, reports of audiograms with no notches from individuals with a history of noise exposure. Recent reports increasingly suggest that unilateral 4000 Hz notches are common. The prevalence of notched audiograms at 4000 Hz is dependent on the definition of the notch and the population under study. To examine the prevalence and characteristics of audiograms that are notched at 4000 Hz. Retrospective, descriptive. The participants were 3430 veterans evaluated in the Audiology Clinic at the VA Medical Center, Mountain Home, Tennessee. The mean age was 62.3 yr. Data Collection and Analyses: The data were collected in the course of a 60 min, routine audiological evaluation. In addition to pure-tone audiometry, a history, otoscopy, speech audiometry in quiet and in noise, and aural-acoustic immittance measures were included in the clinic protocol but were not evaluated in this report. A notch was defined when the 4000 Hz threshold minus the 2000 Hz threshold and the 4000 Hz threshold minus the 8000 Hz threshold both were ≥10 dB. Overall the mean LE (left ear) thresholds at 2000, 3000, and 4000 Hz were at hearing levels 2-3 dB higher than the hearing levels for the corresponding mean RE (right ear) thresholds; the differences were significant. A notched audiogram was observed in 40.6% of the participants in at least one ear with 15.4% having bilateral notches, 28.8% LE notches, and 27.1% RE notches. Unilateral 4000 Hz notches were almost twice as prevalent as bilateral 4000 Hz notches. Viewed as a function of age, notched audiograms were most common (∼35% of the participants) in the 40 and 50 yr groups with a diminishing prevalence in the 60-80 yr groups. The mean notch depth at 4000 Hz was consistently 20-26 dB across the seven age groups. In comparison to the thresholds of the audiograms that were not notched, the thresholds of the audiograms with 4000 Hz notches (1) at 250-2000 Hz were at hearing levels 2-3 dB lower, (2) at 3000 and 4000 Hz were at hearing levels 8-17 dB higher, and (3) at 8000 Hz were at hearing levels 3-4 dB lower; the threshold differences were significant at all frequencies for both ears. The data suggest that unilateral, 4000 Hz notched audiograms are as common or more common than bilateral notched audiograms and that unilateral notched audiograms are equally common for the LE and RE. The prevalence and characteristics of 4000 Hz notched audiograms in this veteran sample are similar to those observed in the population as a whole. American Academy of Audiology.

DNA barcoding reveals species level divergence between populations of the microhylid frog genus Arcovomer (Anura: Microhylidae) in the Atlantic Rainforest of southeastern Brazil.

PubMed

Jennings, W Bryan; Wogel, Henrique; Bilate, Marcos; Salles, Rodrigo de O L; Buckup, Paulo A

2016-09-01

The microhylid frogs belonging to the genus Arcovomer have been reported from lowland Atlantic Rainforest in the Brazilian states of Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo. Here, we use DNA barcoding to assess levels of genetic divergence between apparently isolated populations in Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro. Our mtDNA data consisting of cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) nucleotide sequences reveals 13.2% uncorrected and 30.4% TIM2 + I + Γ corrected genetic divergences between these two populations. This level of divergence exceeds the suggested 10% uncorrected divergence threshold for elevating amphibian populations to candidate species using this marker, which implies that the Espírito Santo population is a species distinct from Arcovomer passarellii. Calibration of our model-corrected sequence divergence estimates suggests that the time of population divergence falls between 12 and 29 million years ago.

Defining major trauma using the 2008 Abbreviated Injury Scale.

PubMed

Palmer, Cameron S; Gabbe, Belinda J; Cameron, Peter A

2016-01-01

The Injury Severity Score (ISS) is the most ubiquitous summary score derived from Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) data. It is frequently used to classify patients as 'major trauma' using a threshold of ISS >15. However, it is not known whether this is still appropriate, given the changes which have been made to the AIS codeset since this threshold was first used. This study aimed to identify appropriate ISS and New Injury Severity Score (NISS) thresholds for use with the 2008 AIS (AIS08) which predict mortality and in-hospital resource use comparably to ISS >15 using AIS98. Data from 37,760 patients in a state trauma registry were retrieved and reviewed. AIS data coded using the 1998 AIS (AIS98) were mapped to AIS08. ISS and NISS were calculated, and their effects on patient classification compared. The ability of selected ISS and NISS thresholds to predict mortality or high-level in-hospital resource use (the need for ICU or urgent surgery) was assessed. An ISS >12 using AIS08 was similar to an ISS >15 using AIS98 in terms of both the number of patients classified major trauma, and overall major trauma mortality. A 10% mortality level was only seen for ISS 25 or greater. A NISS >15 performed similarly to both of these ISS thresholds. However, the AIS08-based ISS >12 threshold correctly classified significantly more patients than a NISS >15 threshold for all three severity measures assessed. When coding injuries using AIS08, an ISS >12 appears to function similarly to an ISS >15 in AIS98 for the purposes of identifying a population with an elevated risk of death after injury. Where mortality is a primary outcome of trauma monitoring, an ISS >12 threshold could be adopted to identify major trauma patients. Level II evidence--diagnostic tests and criteria. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying Population-Level Risks Using an Individual-Based Model: Sea Otters, Harlequin Ducks, and the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

PubMed Central

Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Parker, Keith R

2012-01-01

Ecological risk assessments need to advance beyond evaluating risks to individuals that are largely based on toxicity studies conducted on a few species under laboratory conditions, to assessing population-level risks to the environment, including considerations of variability and uncertainty. Two individual-based models (IBMs), recently developed to assess current risks to sea otters and seaducks in Prince William Sound more than 2 decades after the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), are used to explore population-level risks. In each case, the models had previously shown that there were essentially no remaining risks to individuals from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) derived from the EVOS. New sensitivity analyses are reported here in which hypothetical environmental exposures to PAHs were heuristically increased until assimilated doses reached toxicity reference values (TRVs) derived at the no-observed-adverse-effects and lowest-observed-adverse-effects levels (NOAEL and LOAEL, respectively). For the sea otters, this was accomplished by artificially increasing the number of sea otter pits that would intersect remaining patches of subsurface oil residues by orders of magnitude over actual estimated rates. Similarly, in the seaduck assessment, the PAH concentrations in the constituents of diet, sediments, and seawater were increased in proportion to their relative contributions to the assimilated doses by orders of magnitude over measured environmental concentrations, to reach the NOAEL and LOAEL thresholds. The stochastic IBMs simulated millions of individuals. From these outputs, frequency distributions were derived of assimilated doses for populations of 500 000 sea otters or seaducks in each of 7 or 8 classes, respectively. Doses to several selected quantiles were analyzed, ranging from the 1-in-1000th most-exposed individuals (99.9% quantile) to the median-exposed individuals (50% quantile). The resulting families of quantile curves provide the basis for characterizing the environmental thresholds below which no population-level effects could be detected and above which population-level effects would be expected to become manifest. This approach provides risk managers an enhanced understanding of the risks to populations under various conditions and assumptions, whether under hypothetically increased exposure regimes, as demonstrated here, or in situations in which actual exposures are near toxic effects levels. This study shows that individual-based models are especially amenable and appropriate for conducting population-level risk assessments, and that they can readily be used to answer questions about the risks to individuals and populations across a variety of exposure conditions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2012; 8: 503–522. © 2012 SETAC PMID:22275071

Quantifying population-level risks using an individual-based model: sea otters, Harlequin Ducks, and the Exxon Valdez oil spill.

PubMed

Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Parker, Keith R

2012-07-01

Ecological risk assessments need to advance beyond evaluating risks to individuals that are largely based on toxicity studies conducted on a few species under laboratory conditions, to assessing population-level risks to the environment, including considerations of variability and uncertainty. Two individual-based models (IBMs), recently developed to assess current risks to sea otters and seaducks in Prince William Sound more than 2 decades after the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), are used to explore population-level risks. In each case, the models had previously shown that there were essentially no remaining risks to individuals from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) derived from the EVOS. New sensitivity analyses are reported here in which hypothetical environmental exposures to PAHs were heuristically increased until assimilated doses reached toxicity reference values (TRVs) derived at the no-observed-adverse-effects and lowest-observed-adverse-effects levels (NOAEL and LOAEL, respectively). For the sea otters, this was accomplished by artificially increasing the number of sea otter pits that would intersect remaining patches of subsurface oil residues by orders of magnitude over actual estimated rates. Similarly, in the seaduck assessment, the PAH concentrations in the constituents of diet, sediments, and seawater were increased in proportion to their relative contributions to the assimilated doses by orders of magnitude over measured environmental concentrations, to reach the NOAEL and LOAEL thresholds. The stochastic IBMs simulated millions of individuals. From these outputs, frequency distributions were derived of assimilated doses for populations of 500,000 sea otters or seaducks in each of 7 or 8 classes, respectively. Doses to several selected quantiles were analyzed, ranging from the 1-in-1000th most-exposed individuals (99.9% quantile) to the median-exposed individuals (50% quantile). The resulting families of quantile curves provide the basis for characterizing the environmental thresholds below which no population-level effects could be detected and above which population-level effects would be expected to become manifest. This approach provides risk managers an enhanced understanding of the risks to populations under various conditions and assumptions, whether under hypothetically increased exposure regimes, as demonstrated here, or in situations in which actual exposures are near toxic effects levels. This study shows that individual-based models are especially amenable and appropriate for conducting population-level risk assessments, and that they can readily be used to answer questions about the risks to individuals and populations across a variety of exposure conditions. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Error propagation in energetic carrying capacity models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearse, Aaron T.; Stafford, Joshua D.

2014-01-01

Conservation objectives derived from carrying capacity models have been used to inform management of landscapes for wildlife populations. Energetic carrying capacity models are particularly useful in conservation planning for wildlife; these models use estimates of food abundance and energetic requirements of wildlife to target conservation actions. We provide a general method for incorporating a foraging threshold (i.e., density of food at which foraging becomes unprofitable) when estimating food availability with energetic carrying capacity models. We use a hypothetical example to describe how past methods for adjustment of foraging thresholds biased results of energetic carrying capacity models in certain instances. Adjusting foraging thresholds at the patch level of the species of interest provides results consistent with ecological foraging theory. Presentation of two case studies suggest variation in bias which, in certain instances, created large errors in conservation objectives and may have led to inefficient allocation of limited resources. Our results also illustrate how small errors or biases in application of input parameters, when extrapolated to large spatial extents, propagate errors in conservation planning and can have negative implications for target populations.

Socioeconomic thresholds that affect use of customary fisheries management tools.

PubMed

Cinner, Joshua E; Sutton, Stephen G; Bond, Trevor G

2007-12-01

Customary forms of resource management, such as taboos, have received considerable attention as a potential basis for conservation initiatives in the Indo-Pacific. Yet little is known about how socioeconomic factors influence the ability of communities to use customary management practices and whether socioeconomic transformations within communities will weaken conservation initiatives with a customary foundation. We used a comparative approach to examine how socioeconomic factors may influence whether communities use customary fisheries management in Papua New Guinea. We examined levels of material wealth (modernization), dependence on marine resources, population, and distance to market in 15 coastal communities. We compared these socioeconomic conditions in 5 communities that used a customary method of closing their fishing ground with 10 communities that did not use this type of management. There were apparent threshold levels of dependence on marine resources, modernization, distance to markets (<16.5 km), and population (>600 people) beyond which communities did not use customary fisheries closures. Nevertheless, economic inequality, rather than mean modernization levels seemed to influence the use of closures. Our results suggest that customary management institutions are not resilient to factors such as population growth and economic modernization. If customary management is to be used as a basis for modern conservation initiatives, cross-scale institutional arrangements such as networks and bridging organizations may be required to help filter the impacts of socioeconomic transformations.

Ambient high temperature and mortality in Jinan, China: A study of heat thresholds and vulnerable populations.

PubMed

Li, Jing; Xu, Xin; Yang, Jun; Liu, Zhidong; Xu, Lei; Gao, Jinghong; Liu, Xiaobo; Wu, Haixia; Wang, Jun; Yu, Jieqiong; Jiang, Baofa; Liu, Qiyong

2017-07-01

Understanding the health consequences of continuously rising temperatures-as is projected for China-is important in terms of developing heat-health adaptation and intervention programs. This study aimed to examine the association between mortality and daily maximum (T max ), mean (T mean ), and minimum (T min ) temperatures in warmer months; to explore threshold temperatures; and to identify optimal heat indicators and vulnerable populations. Daily data on temperature and mortality were obtained for the period 2007-2013. Heat thresholds for condition-specific mortality were estimated using an observed/expected analysis. We used a generalised additive model with a quasi-Poisson distribution to examine the association between mortality and T max /T min /T mean values higher than the threshold values, after adjustment for covariates. T max /T mean /T min thresholds were 32/28/24°C for non-accidental deaths; 32/28/24°C for cardiovascular deaths; 35/31/26°C for respiratory deaths; and 34/31/28°C for diabetes-related deaths. For each 1°C increase in T max /T mean /T min above the threshold, the mortality risk of non-accidental-, cardiovascular-, respiratory, and diabetes-related death increased by 2.8/5.3/4.8%, 4.1/7.2/6.6%, 6.6/25.3/14.7%, and 13.3/30.5/47.6%, respectively. Thresholds for mortality differed according to health condition when stratified by sex, age, and education level. For non-accidental deaths, effects were significant in individuals aged ≥65 years (relative risk=1.038, 95% confidence interval: 1.026-1.050), but not for those ≤64 years. For most outcomes, women and people ≥65 years were more vulnerable. High temperature significantly increases the risk of mortality in the population of Jinan, China. Climate change with rising temperatures may bring about the situation worse. Public health programs should be improved and implemented to prevent and reduce health risks during hot days, especially for the identified vulnerable groups. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

When does ecological sustainability ensure economic sustainability? An integrated analysis of thresholds in semi-arid western rangelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobourn, K. M.; Peckham, S. D.

2011-12-01

The vulnerability of agri-environmental systems to ecological threshold events depends on the combined influence of economic factors and natural drivers, such as climate and disturbance. This analysis builds an integrated ecologic-economic model to evaluate the behavioral response of agricultural producers to changing and uncertain natural conditions. The model explicitly reflects the effect of producer behavior on the likelihood of a threshold event that threatens the ecological and/or economic sustainability of the agri-environmental system. The foundation of the analysis is a threshold indicator that incorporates the population dynamics of a species that supports economic production and an episodic disturbance regime-in this case rangeland grass that is grazed by livestock and is subject to wildfire. This ecological indicator is integrated into an economic model in which producers choose grazing intensity given the state of the grass population and a set of economic parameters. We examine two model variants that characterize differing economic circumstances. The first characterizes the optimal grazing regime assuming that the system is managed by a single planner whose objective is to maximize the aggregate long-run returns of producers in the system. The second examines the case in which individual producers choose their own stocking rates in order to maximize their private economic benefit. The results from the first model variant illustrate the difference between an ecologic and an economic threshold. Failure to cross an ecological threshold does not necessarily ensure that the system remains economically viable: Economic sustainability, defined as the ability of the system to support optimal production into the infinite future, requires that the net growth rate of the supporting population exceeds the level required for ecological sustainability by an amount that depends on the market price of livestock and grazing efficiency. The results from the second model variant define the circumstances under which a system that is otherwise ecologically sustainable is driven over a threshold by the actions of economic agents. The difference between the two model solutions identifies bounds between which the viability of livestock production over the long-run is uncertain and depends upon the policy setting in which the agri-environmental system operates.

Uncertainty Estimates of Psychoacoustic Thresholds Obtained from Group Tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rathsam, Jonathan; Christian, Andrew

2016-01-01

Adaptive psychoacoustic test methods, in which the next signal level depends on the response to the previous signal, are the most efficient for determining psychoacoustic thresholds of individual subjects. In many tests conducted in the NASA psychoacoustic labs, the goal is to determine thresholds representative of the general population. To do this economically, non-adaptive testing methods are used in which three or four subjects are tested at the same time with predetermined signal levels. This approach requires us to identify techniques for assessing the uncertainty in resulting group-average psychoacoustic thresholds. In this presentation we examine the Delta Method of frequentist statistics, the Generalized Linear Model (GLM), the Nonparametric Bootstrap, a frequentist method, and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Posterior Estimation and a Bayesian approach. Each technique is exercised on a manufactured, theoretical dataset and then on datasets from two psychoacoustics facilities at NASA. The Delta Method is the simplest to implement and accurate for the cases studied. The GLM is found to be the least robust, and the Bootstrap takes the longest to calculate. The Bayesian Posterior Estimate is the most versatile technique examined because it allows the inclusion of prior information.

Equilibrium analysis of a yellow Fever dynamical model with vaccination.

PubMed

Martorano Raimundo, Silvia; Amaku, Marcos; Massad, Eduardo

2015-01-01

We propose an equilibrium analysis of a dynamical model of yellow fever transmission in the presence of a vaccine. The model considers both human and vector populations. We found thresholds parameters that affect the development of the disease and the infectious status of the human population in the presence of a vaccine whose protection may wane over time. In particular, we derived a threshold vaccination rate, above which the disease would be eradicated from the human population. We show that if the mortality rate of the mosquitoes is greater than a given threshold, then the disease is naturally (without intervention) eradicated from the population. In contrast, if the mortality rate of the mosquitoes is less than that threshold, then the disease is eradicated from the populations only when the growing rate of humans is less than another threshold; otherwise, the disease is eradicated only if the reproduction number of the infection after vaccination is less than 1. When this reproduction number is greater than 1, the disease will be eradicated from the human population if the vaccination rate is greater than a given threshold; otherwise, the disease will establish itself among humans, reaching a stable endemic equilibrium. The analysis presented in this paper can be useful, both to the better understanding of the disease dynamics and also for the planning of vaccination strategies.

Modeling environmental noise exceedances using non-homogeneous Poisson processes.

PubMed

Guarnaccia, Claudio; Quartieri, Joseph; Barrios, Juan M; Rodrigues, Eliane R

2014-10-01

In this work a non-homogeneous Poisson model is considered to study noise exposure. The Poisson process, counting the number of times that a sound level surpasses a threshold, is used to estimate the probability that a population is exposed to high levels of noise a certain number of times in a given time interval. The rate function of the Poisson process is assumed to be of a Weibull type. The presented model is applied to community noise data from Messina, Sicily (Italy). Four sets of data are used to estimate the parameters involved in the model. After the estimation and tuning are made, a way of estimating the probability that an environmental noise threshold is exceeded a certain number of times in a given time interval is presented. This estimation can be very useful in the study of noise exposure of a population and also to predict, given the current behavior of the data, the probability of occurrence of high levels of noise in the near future. One of the most important features of the model is that it implicitly takes into account different noise sources, which need to be treated separately when using usual models.

Assessing DSM-IV symptoms of panic attack in the general population: an item response analysis.

PubMed

Sunderland, Matthew; Hobbs, Megan J; Andrews, Gavin; Craske, Michelle G

2012-12-20

Unexpected panic attacks may represent a non-specific risk factor for future depression and anxiety disorders. The examination of panic symptoms and associated latent severity levels may lead to improvements in the identification, prevention, and treatment of panic attacks and subsequent psychopathology for 'at risk' individuals in the general population. The current study utilised item response theory to assess the DSM-IV symptoms of panic in relation to the latent severity level of the panic attack construct in a sample of 5913 respondents from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related conditions. Additionally, differential item functioning (DIF) was assessed to determine if each symptom of panic targets the same level of latent severity between different sociodemographic groups (male/female, young/old). Symptoms indexing 'choking', 'fear of dying', and 'tingling/numbness' are some of the more severe symptoms of panic whilst 'heart racing', 'short of breath', 'tremble/shake', 'dizzy/faint', and 'perspire' are some of the least severe symptoms. Significant levels of DIF were detected in the 'perspire' symptom between males and females and the 'fear of dying' symptom between young and old respondents. The current study was limited to examining cross-sectional data from respondents who had experienced at least one panic attack across their lifetime. The findings of the current study provide additional information regarding panic symptoms in the general population that may enable researchers and clinicians to further refine the detection of 'at-risk' individuals who experience threshold and sub-threshold levels of panic. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Developing a synthetic national population to investigate the impact of different cardiovascular disease risk management strategies: A derivation and validation study

PubMed Central

Jackson, Rod

2017-01-01

Background Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients’ multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country’s total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. Methods and results A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30–84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each ‘synthetic’ person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. Conclusions We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere. PMID:28384217

Developing a synthetic national population to investigate the impact of different cardiovascular disease risk management strategies: A derivation and validation study.

PubMed

Knight, Josh; Wells, Susan; Marshall, Roger; Exeter, Daniel; Jackson, Rod

2017-01-01

Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients' multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country's total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30-84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each 'synthetic' person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere.

Modelling the Future Hydroclimatology of the Lower Fraser River and its Impacts on the Spawning Migration Survival of Sockeye Salmon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hague, M. J.; Ferrari, M. R.; Miller, J. R.; Patterson, D. A.; Russell, G. L.; Farrell, A.P.; Hinch, S. G.

2010-01-01

Short episodic high temperature events can be lethal for migrating adult Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). We downscaled temperatures for the Fraser River, British Columbia to evaluate the impact of climate warming on the frequency of exceeding thermal thresholds associated with salmon migratory success. Alarmingly, a modest 1.0 C increase in average summer water temperature over 100 years (1981-2000 to 2081-2100) tripled the number of days per year exceeding critical salmonid thermal thresholds (i.e. 19.0 C). Refined thresholds for two populations (Gates Creek and Weaver Creek) of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) were defined using physiological constraint models based on aerobic scope. While extreme temperatures leading to complete aerobic collapse remained unlikely under our warming scenario, both populations were increasingly forced to migrate upriver at reduced levels of aerobic performance (e.g. in 80% of future simulations, => 90% of salmon encountered temperatures exceeding population specific thermal optima for maximum aerobic scope; T(sub opt)) = 16.3 C for Gates Creek and T(sub sopt)=14.5 C for Weaver Creek). Assuming recent changes to river entry timing persist, we also predicted dramatic increases in the probability of freshwater mortality for Weaver Creek salmon due to reductions in aerobic, and general physiological, performance (e.g. in 42% of future simulations =>50% of Weaver Creek fish exceeded temperature thresholds associated with 0 - 60% of maximum aerobic scope). Potential for adaptation via directional selection on run-timing was more evident for the Weaver Creek population. Early entry Weaver Creek fish experienced 25% (range: 15 - 31%) more suboptimal temperatures than late entrants, compared with an 8% difference (range: 0 - 17%) between early and late Gates Creek fish. Our results emphasize the need to consider daily temperature variability in association with population-specific differences in behaviour and physiological constraints when forecasting impacts of climate change on migratory survival of aquatic species.

Simulated effects of recruitment variability, exploitation, and reduced habitat area on the muskellunge population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frohnauer, N.K.; Pierce, C.L.; Kallemeyn, L.W.

2007-01-01

The genetically unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabiting Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, is potentially at risk for loss of genetic variability and long-term viability. Shoepack Lake has been subject to dramatic surface area changes from the construction of an outlet dam by beavers Castor canadensis and its subsequent failure. We simulated the long-term dynamics of this population in response to recruitment variation, increased exploitation, and reduced habitat area. We then estimated the effective population size of the simulated population and evaluated potential threats to long-term viability, based on which we recommend management actions to help preserve the long-term viability of the population. Simulations based on the population size and habitat area at the beginning of a companion study resulted in an effective population size that was generally above the threshold level for risk of loss of genetic variability, except when fishing mortality was increased. Simulations based on the reduced habitat area after the beaver dam failure and our assumption of a proportional reduction in population size resulted in an effective population size that was generally below the threshold level for risk of loss of genetic variability. Our results identified two potential threats to the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population, reduction in habitat area and exploitation. Increased exploitation can be prevented through traditional fishery management approaches such as the adoption of no-kill, barbless hook, and limited entry regulations. Maintenance of the greatest possible habitat area and prevention of future habitat area reductions will require maintenance of the outlet dam built by beavers. Our study should enhance the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population and illustrates a useful approach for other unique populations. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; McHugh, Peter A; McIntosh, Angus R

2016-10-01

Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark-recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one-in-seventy-year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long-held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The mutation-drift balance in spatially structured populations.

PubMed

Schneider, David M; Martins, Ayana B; de Aguiar, Marcus A M

2016-08-07

In finite populations the action of neutral mutations is balanced by genetic drift, leading to a stationary distribution of alleles that displays a transition between two different behaviors. For small mutation rates most individuals will carry the same allele at equilibrium, whereas for high mutation rates of the alleles will be randomly distributed with frequencies close to one half for a biallelic gene. For well-mixed haploid populations the mutation threshold is μc=1/2N, where N is the population size. In this paper we study how spatial structure affects this mutation threshold. Specifically, we study the stationary allele distribution for populations placed on regular networks where connected nodes represent potential mating partners. We show that the mutation threshold is sensitive to spatial structure only if the number of potential mates is very small. In this limit, the mutation threshold decreases substantially, increasing the diversity of the population at considerably low mutation rates. Defining kc as the degree of the network for which the mutation threshold drops to half of its value in well-mixed populations we show that kc grows slowly as a function of the population size, following a power law. Our calculations and simulations are based on the Moran model and on a mapping between the Moran model with mutations and the voter model with opinion makers. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Personally Modifiable Risk Factors Associated with Pediatric Hearing Loss: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Vasconcellos, Adam P.; Kyle, Meghann E.; Gilani, Sapideh; Shin, Jennifer J.

2015-01-01

Background Pediatric hearing loss is an increasingly recognized problem with significant implications. Increasing our quantitative understanding of potentially modifiable environmental risk factors for hearing loss may form the foundation for prevention and screening programs. Objective To determine whether specific threshold exposure levels of personally modifiable risk factors for hearing loss have been defined, with the overarching goal of providing actionable guidance for the prevention of pediatric hearing loss. Data Sources A systematic review was performed. Computerized searches of PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Library were completed and supplemented with manual searches. Review Methods Inclusion/exclusion criteria were designed to determine specific threshold values of personally modifiable risk factors on hearing loss in the pediatric population. Searches and data extraction were performed by independent reviewers. Results There were 38 criterion-meeting studies, including a total of 50,651 subjects. Threshold noise exposures significantly associated with hearing loss in youth included: (1) more than 4 hours per week or more than 5 years of personal headphone usage, (2) more than 4 visits per month to a discotheque, and (3) working on a mechanized farm. Quantified tobacco levels of concern included any level of in utero smoke exposure as well as secondhand exposure sufficient to elevate serum cotinine. Conclusions Specific thresholds analyses are limited. Future studies would ideally focus on stratifying risk according to clearly defined levels of exposure, in order to provide actionable guidance for children and families. PMID:24671457

Climate change, shifting seasons, and the ecohydrology of Devils Hole, Death Valley National Park

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hausner, M. B.; Wilson, K. P.; Gaines, D. B.; Suarez, F. I.; Tyler, S. W.

2011-12-01

Devils Hole, a water-filled fracture in the carbonate aquifer of the Death Valley Regional Flow System, comprises an ecosystem that can serve as a bellwether of climate change. This 50 square meter pool of unknown depth is home to the only extant population of the endangered Devils Hole pupfish (Cyprinodon diabolis). A shallow shelf in the system provides the most suitable habitat for spawning, and the past pupfish population counts have been correlated to the water level in the system. Recently, however, population declines unrelated to water level have been observed. The 33° C waters of Devils Hole are near the upper threshold for most Cyprinodon species, and the shallow shelf experiences the greatest diurnal and seasonal temperature variability. The extremely limited habitat, small population (the spring, 2011 population survey counted approximately 100 individuals), and precarious nature of populations near survival thresholds combine to make the system exceptionally susceptible to the impacts of climate change. A hydrodynamic model of the shallow shelf was developed to simulate thermal convection in response to a number of energy fluxes, including climatic drivers such as air temperature and solar radiation. Simulations of current conditions demonstrate seasonal and diurnal changes in the temperature of the water and the substrate in which adult pupfish spawn, eggs hatch, and larvae develop. The simulated convection patterns also influence the oxygen dynamics, nutrient cycling, and the food web of the ecosystem. Simulations of future conditions using a delta change methodology point towards changes in the seasonal cycles, which may limit or shift the reproductive season of the species.

Design of a reliable and operational landslide early warning system at regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvello, Michele; Piciullo, Luca; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

Landslide early warning systems at regional scale are used to warn authorities, civil protection personnel and the population about the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides over wide areas, typically through the prediction and measurement of meteorological variables. A warning model for these systems must include a regional correlation law and a decision algorithm. A regional correlation law can be defined as a functional relationship between rainfall and landslides; it is typically based on thresholds of rainfall indicators (e.g., cumulated rainfall, rainfall duration) related to different exceedance probabilities of landslide occurrence. A decision algorithm can be defined as a set of assumptions and procedures linking rainfall thresholds to warning levels. The design and the employment of an operational and reliable early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides at regional scale depend on the identification of a reliable correlation law as well as on the definition of a suitable decision algorithm. Herein, a five-step process chain addressing both issues and based on rainfall thresholds is proposed; the procedure is tested in a landslide-prone area of the Campania region in southern Italy. To this purpose, a database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003-2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall thresholds are defined applying a frequentist method to reconstructed rainfall conditions triggering landslides in the test area. In the second step, several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities are evaluated, and different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, within steps three and four, the issuing of warning levels is based on the comparison, over time and for each combination, between the measured rainfall and the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in the regional early warning system is selected evaluating the model performance in terms of success and error indicators by means of the "event, duration matrix, performance" (EDuMaP) method.

Cooperation and charity in spatial public goods game under different strategy update rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yixiao; Jin, Xiaogang; Su, Xianchuang; Kong, Fansheng; Peng, Chengbin

2010-03-01

Human cooperation can be influenced by other human behaviors and recent years have witnessed the flourishing of studying the coevolution of cooperation and punishment, yet the common behavior of charity is seldom considered in game-theoretical models. In this article, we investigate the coevolution of altruistic cooperation and egalitarian charity in spatial public goods game, by considering charity as the behavior of reducing inter-individual payoff differences. Our model is that, in each generation of the evolution, individuals play games first and accumulate payoff benefits, and then each egalitarian makes a charity donation by payoff transfer in its neighborhood. To study the individual-level evolutionary dynamics, we adopt different strategy update rules and investigate their effects on charity and cooperation. These rules can be classified into two global rules: random selection rule in which individuals randomly update strategies, and threshold selection rule where only those with payoffs below a threshold update strategies. Simulation results show that random selection enhances the cooperation level, while threshold selection lowers the threshold of the multiplication factor to maintain cooperation. When charity is considered, it is incapable in promoting cooperation under random selection, whereas it promotes cooperation under threshold selection. Interestingly, the evolution of charity strongly depends on the dispersion of payoff acquisitions of the population, which agrees with previous results. Our work may shed light on understanding human egalitarianism.

Percolation threshold determines the optimal population density for public cooperation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2012-03-01

While worldwide census data provide statistical evidence that firmly link the population density with several indicators of social welfare, the precise mechanisms underlying these observations are largely unknown. Here we study the impact of population density on the evolution of public cooperation in structured populations and find that the optimal density is uniquely related to the percolation threshold of the host graph irrespective of its topological details. We explain our observations by showing that spatial reciprocity peaks in the vicinity of the percolation threshold, when the emergence of a giant cooperative cluster is hindered neither by vacancy nor by invading defectors, thus discovering an intuitive yet universal law that links the population density with social prosperity.

On what basis are medical cost-effectiveness thresholds set? Clashing opinions and an absence of data: a systematic review.

PubMed

Cameron, David; Ubels, Jasper; Norström, Fredrik

2018-01-01

The amount a government should be willing to invest in adopting new medical treatments has long been under debate. With many countries using formal cost-effectiveness (C/E) thresholds when examining potential new treatments and ever-growing medical costs, accurately setting the level of a C/E threshold can be essential for an efficient healthcare system. The aim of this systematic review is to describe the prominent approaches to setting a C/E threshold, compile available national-level C/E threshold data and willingness-to-pay (WTP) data, and to discern whether associations exist between these values, gross domestic product (GDP) and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE). This review further examines current obstacles faced with the presently available data. A systematic review was performed to collect articles which have studied national C/E thresholds and willingness-to-pay (WTP) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in the general population. Associations between GDP, HALE, WTP, and C/E thresholds were analyzed with correlations. Seventeen countries were identified from nine unique sources to have formal C/E thresholds within our inclusion criteria. Thirteen countries from nine sources were identified to have WTP per QALY data within our inclusion criteria. Two possible associations were identified: C/E thresholds with HALE (quadratic correlation of 0.63), and C/E thresholds with GDP per capita (polynomial correlation of 0.84). However, these results are based on few observations and therefore firm conclusions cannot be made. Most national C/E thresholds identified in our review fall within the WHO's recommended range of one-to-three times GDP per capita. However, the quality and quantity of data available regarding national average WTP per QALY, opportunity costs, and C/E thresholds is poor in comparison to the importance of adequate investment in healthcare. There exists an obvious risk that countries might either over- or underinvest in healthcare if they base their decision-making process on erroneous presumptions or non-evidence-based methodologies. The commonly referred to value of 100,000$ USD per QALY may potentially have some basis.

On what basis are medical cost-effectiveness thresholds set? Clashing opinions and an absence of data: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Cameron, David; Ubels, Jasper; Norström, Fredrik

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: The amount a government should be willing to invest in adopting new medical treatments has long been under debate. With many countries using formal cost-effectiveness (C/E) thresholds when examining potential new treatments and ever-growing medical costs, accurately setting the level of a C/E threshold can be essential for an efficient healthcare system. Objectives: The aim of this systematic review is to describe the prominent approaches to setting a C/E threshold, compile available national-level C/E threshold data and willingness-to-pay (WTP) data, and to discern whether associations exist between these values, gross domestic product (GDP) and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE). This review further examines current obstacles faced with the presently available data. Methods: A systematic review was performed to collect articles which have studied national C/E thresholds and willingness-to-pay (WTP) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in the general population. Associations between GDP, HALE, WTP, and C/E thresholds were analyzed with correlations. Results: Seventeen countries were identified from nine unique sources to have formal C/E thresholds within our inclusion criteria. Thirteen countries from nine sources were identified to have WTP per QALY data within our inclusion criteria. Two possible associations were identified: C/E thresholds with HALE (quadratic correlation of 0.63), and C/E thresholds with GDP per capita (polynomial correlation of 0.84). However, these results are based on few observations and therefore firm conclusions cannot be made. Conclusions: Most national C/E thresholds identified in our review fall within the WHO’s recommended range of one-to-three times GDP per capita. However, the quality and quantity of data available regarding national average WTP per QALY, opportunity costs, and C/E thresholds is poor in comparison to the importance of adequate investment in healthcare. There exists an obvious risk that countries might either over- or underinvest in healthcare if they base their decision-making process on erroneous presumptions or non-evidence-based methodologies. The commonly referred to value of 100,000$ USD per QALY may potentially have some basis. PMID:29564962

Modeling habitat split: landscape and life history traits determine amphibian extinction thresholds.

PubMed

Fonseca, Carlos Roberto; Coutinho, Renato M; Azevedo, Franciane; Berbert, Juliana M; Corso, Gilberto; Kraenkel, Roberto A

2013-01-01

Habitat split is a major force behind the worldwide decline of amphibian populations, causing community change in richness and species composition. In fragmented landscapes, natural remnants, the terrestrial habitat of the adults, are frequently separated from streams, the aquatic habitat of the larvae. An important question is how this landscape configuration affects population levels and if it can drive species to extinction locally. Here, we put forward the first theoretical model on habitat split which is particularly concerned on how split distance - the distance between the two required habitats - affects population size and persistence in isolated fragments. Our diffusive model shows that habitat split alone is able to generate extinction thresholds. Fragments occurring between the aquatic habitat and a given critical split distance are expected to hold viable populations, while fragments located farther away are expected to be unoccupied. Species with higher reproductive success and higher diffusion rate of post-metamorphic youngs are expected to have farther critical split distances. Furthermore, the model indicates that negative effects of habitat split are poorly compensated by positive effects of fragment size. The habitat split model improves our understanding about spatially structured populations and has relevant implications for landscape design for conservation. It puts on a firm theoretical basis the relation between habitat split and the decline of amphibian populations.

Evaluation of different radon guideline values based on characterization of ecological risk and visualization of lung cancer mortality trends in British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Branion-Calles, Michael C; Nelson, Trisalyn A; Henderson, Sarah B

2015-11-19

There is no safe concentration of radon gas, but guideline values provide threshold concentrations that are used to map areas at higher risk. These values vary between different regions, countries, and organizations, which can lead to differential classification of risk. For example the World Health Organization suggests a 100 Bq m(-3)value, while Health Canada recommends 200 Bq m(-3). Our objective was to describe how different thresholds characterized ecological radon risk and their visual association with lung cancer mortality trends in British Columbia, Canada. Eight threshold values between 50 and 600 Bq m(-3) were identified, and classes of radon vulnerability were defined based on whether the observed 95(th) percentile radon concentration was above or below each value. A balanced random forest algorithm was used to model vulnerability, and the results were mapped. We compared high vulnerability areas, their estimated populations, and differences in lung cancer mortality trends stratified by smoking prevalence and sex. Classification accuracy improved as the threshold concentrations decreased and the area classified as high vulnerability increased. Majority of the population lived within areas of lower vulnerability regardless of the threshold value. Thresholds as low as 50 Bq m(-3) were associated with higher lung cancer mortality, even in areas with low smoking prevalence. Temporal trends in lung cancer mortality were increasing for women, while decreasing for men. Radon contributes to lung cancer in British Columbia. The results of the study contribute evidence supporting the use of a reference level lower than the current guideline of 200 Bq m(-3) for the province.

CARA Risk Assessment Thresholds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hejduk, M. D.

2016-01-01

Warning remediation threshold (Red threshold): Pc level at which warnings are issued, and active remediation considered and usually executed. Analysis threshold (Green to Yellow threshold): Pc level at which analysis of event is indicated, including seeking additional information if warranted. Post-remediation threshold: Pc level to which remediation maneuvers are sized in order to achieve event remediation and obviate any need for immediate follow-up maneuvers. Maneuver screening threshold: Pc compliance level for routine maneuver screenings (more demanding than regular Red threshold due to additional maneuver uncertainty).

Climate Change, Population Immunity, and Hyperendemicity in the Transmission Threshold of Dengue

PubMed Central

Oki, Mika; Yamamoto, Taro

2012-01-01

Background It has been suggested that the probability of dengue epidemics could increase because of climate change. The probability of epidemics is most commonly evaluated by the basic reproductive number (R0), and in mosquito-borne diseases, mosquito density (the number of female mosquitoes per person [MPP]) is the critical determinant of the R0 value. In dengue-endemic areas, 4 different serotypes of dengue virus coexist–a state known as hyperendemicity–and a certain proportion of the population is immune to one or more of these serotypes. Nevertheless, these factors are not included in the calculation of R0. We aimed to investigate the effects of temperature change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity on the threshold MPP that triggers an epidemic. Methods and Findings We designed a mathematical model of dengue transmission dynamics. An epidemic was defined as a 10% increase in seroprevalence in a year, and the MPP that triggered an epidemic was defined as the threshold MPP. Simulations were conducted in Singapore based on the recorded temperatures from 1980 to 2009 The threshold MPP was estimated with the effect of (1) temperature only; (2) temperature and fluctuation of population immunity; and (3) temperature, fluctuation of immunity, and hyperendemicity. When only the effect of temperature was considered, the threshold MPP was estimated to be 0.53 in the 1980s and 0.46 in the 2000s, a decrease of 13.2%. When the fluctuation of population immunity and hyperendemicity were considered in the model, the threshold MPP decreased by 38.7%, from 0.93 to 0.57, from the 1980s to the 2000s. Conclusions The threshold MPP was underestimated if population immunity was not considered and overestimated if hyperendemicity was not included in the simulations. In addition to temperature, these factors are particularly important when quantifying the threshold MPP for the purpose of setting goals for vector control in dengue-endemic areas. PMID:23144746

Climate change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity in the transmission threshold of dengue.

PubMed

Oki, Mika; Yamamoto, Taro

2012-01-01

It has been suggested that the probability of dengue epidemics could increase because of climate change. The probability of epidemics is most commonly evaluated by the basic reproductive number (R(0)), and in mosquito-borne diseases, mosquito density (the number of female mosquitoes per person [MPP]) is the critical determinant of the R(0) value. In dengue-endemic areas, 4 different serotypes of dengue virus coexist-a state known as hyperendemicity-and a certain proportion of the population is immune to one or more of these serotypes. Nevertheless, these factors are not included in the calculation of R(0). We aimed to investigate the effects of temperature change, population immunity, and hyperendemicity on the threshold MPP that triggers an epidemic. We designed a mathematical model of dengue transmission dynamics. An epidemic was defined as a 10% increase in seroprevalence in a year, and the MPP that triggered an epidemic was defined as the threshold MPP. Simulations were conducted in Singapore based on the recorded temperatures from 1980 to 2009 The threshold MPP was estimated with the effect of (1) temperature only; (2) temperature and fluctuation of population immunity; and (3) temperature, fluctuation of immunity, and hyperendemicity. When only the effect of temperature was considered, the threshold MPP was estimated to be 0.53 in the 1980s and 0.46 in the 2000s, a decrease of 13.2%. When the fluctuation of population immunity and hyperendemicity were considered in the model, the threshold MPP decreased by 38.7%, from 0.93 to 0.57, from the 1980s to the 2000s. The threshold MPP was underestimated if population immunity was not considered and overestimated if hyperendemicity was not included in the simulations. In addition to temperature, these factors are particularly important when quantifying the threshold MPP for the purpose of setting goals for vector control in dengue-endemic areas.

N-terminal pro-B-type Natriuretic Peptides' Prognostic Utility Is Overestimated in Meta-analyses Using Study-specific Optimal Diagnostic Thresholds.

PubMed

Potgieter, Danielle; Simmers, Dale; Ryan, Lisa; Biccard, Bruce M; Lurati-Buse, Giovanna A; Cardinale, Daniela M; Chong, Carol P W; Cnotliwy, Miloslaw; Farzi, Sylvia I; Jankovic, Radmilo J; Lim, Wen Kwang; Mahla, Elisabeth; Manikandan, Ramaswamy; Oscarsson, Anna; Phy, Michael P; Rajagopalan, Sriram; Van Gaal, William J; Waliszek, Marek; Rodseth, Reitze N

2015-08-01

N-terminal fragment B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) prognostic utility is commonly determined post hoc by identifying a single optimal discrimination threshold tailored to the individual study population. The authors aimed to determine how using these study-specific post hoc thresholds impacts meta-analysis results. The authors conducted a systematic review of studies reporting the ability of preoperative NT-proBNP measurements to predict the composite outcome of all-cause mortality and nonfatal myocardial infarction at 30 days after noncardiac surgery. Individual patient-level data NT-proBNP thresholds were determined using two different methodologies. First, a single combined NT-proBNP threshold was determined for the entire cohort of patients, and a meta-analysis conducted using this single threshold. Second, study-specific thresholds were determined for each individual study, with meta-analysis being conducted using these study-specific thresholds. The authors obtained individual patient data from 14 studies (n = 2,196). Using a single NT-proBNP cohort threshold, the odds ratio (OR) associated with an increased NT-proBNP measurement was 3.43 (95% CI, 2.08 to 5.64). Using individual study-specific thresholds, the OR associated with an increased NT-proBNP measurement was 6.45 (95% CI, 3.98 to 10.46). In smaller studies (<100 patients) a single cohort threshold was associated with an OR of 5.4 (95% CI, 2.27 to 12.84) as compared with an OR of 14.38 (95% CI, 6.08 to 34.01) for study-specific thresholds. Post hoc identification of study-specific prognostic biomarker thresholds artificially maximizes biomarker predictive power, resulting in an amplification or overestimation during meta-analysis of these results. This effect is accentuated in small studies.

Linking removal targets to the ecological effects of invaders: a predictive model and field test.

PubMed

Green, Stephanie J; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Brooks, Annabelle M L; Akins, John L; Cooper, Andrew B; Miller, Skylar; Côté, Isabelle M

Species invasions have a range of negative effects on recipient ecosystems, and many occur at a scale and magnitude that preclude complete eradication. When complete extirpation is unlikely with available management resources, an effective strategy may be to suppress invasive populations below levels predicted to cause undesirable ecological change. We illustrated this approach by developing and testing targets for the control of invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles) on Western Atlantic coral reefs. We first developed a size-structured simulation model of predation by lionfish on native fish communities, which we used to predict threshold densities of lionfish beyond which native fish biomass should decline. We then tested our predictions by experimentally manipulating lionfish densities above or below reef-specific thresholds, and monitoring the consequences for native fish populations on 24 Bahamian patch reefs over 18 months. We found that reducing lionfish below predicted threshold densities effectively protected native fish community biomass from predation-induced declines. Reductions in density of 25–92%, depending on the reef, were required to suppress lionfish below levels predicted to overconsume prey. On reefs where lionfish were kept below threshold densities, native prey fish biomass increased by 50–70%. Gains in small (<6 cm) size classes of native fishes translated into lagged increases in larger size classes over time. The biomass of larger individuals (>15 cm total length), including ecologically important grazers and economically important fisheries species, had increased by 10–65% by the end of the experiment. Crucially, similar gains in prey fish biomass were realized on reefs subjected to partial and full removal of lionfish, but partial removals took 30% less time to implement. By contrast, the biomass of small native fishes declined by >50% on all reefs with lionfish densities exceeding reef-specific thresholds. Large inter-reef variation in the biomass of prey fishes at the outset of the study, which influences the threshold density of lionfish, means that we could not identify a single rule of thumb for guiding control efforts. However, our model provides a method for setting reef-specific targets for population control using local monitoring data. Our work is the first to demonstrate that for ongoing invasions, suppressing invaders below densities that cause environmental harm can have a similar effect, in terms of protecting the native ecosystem on a local scale, to achieving complete eradication.

Are all intertidal wetlands naturally created equal? Bottlenecks, thresholds and knowledge gaps to mangrove and saltmarsh ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Friess, Daniel A.; Krauss, Ken W.; Horstman, Erik M.; Balke, Thorsten; Bouma, Tjeerd J.; Galli, Demis; Webb, Edward L.

2011-01-01

Intertidal wetlands such as saltmarshes and mangroves provide numerous important ecological functions, though they are in rapid and global decline. To better conserve and restore these wetland ecosystems, we need an understanding of the fundamental natural bottlenecks and thresholds to their establishment and long-term ecological maintenance. Despite inhabiting similar intertidal positions, the biological traits of these systems differ markedly in structure, phenology, life history, phylogeny and dispersal, suggesting large differences in biophysical interactions. By providing the first systematic comparison between saltmarshes and mangroves, we unravel how the interplay between species-specific life-history traits, biophysical interactions and biogeomorphological feedback processes determine where, when and what wetland can establish, the thresholds to long-term ecosystem stability, and constraints to genetic connectivity between intertidal wetland populations at the landscape level. To understand these process interactions, research into the constraints to wetland development, and biological adaptations to overcome these critical bottlenecks and thresholds requires a truly interdisciplinary approach.

I. RENAL THRESHOLDS FOR HEMOGLOBIN IN DOGS

PubMed Central

Lichty, John A.; Havill, William H.; Whipple, George H.

1932-01-01

We use the term "renal threshold for hemoglobin" to indicate the smallest amount of hemoglobin which given intravenously will effect the appearance of recognizable hemoglobin in the urine. The initial renal threshold level for dog hemoglobin is established by the methods employed at an average value of 155 mg. hemoglobin per kilo body weight with maximal values of 210 and minimal of 124. Repeated daily injections of hemoglobin will depress this initial renal threshold level on the average 46 per cent with maximal values of 110 and minimal values of 60 mg. hemoglobin per kilo body weight. This minimal or depression threshold is relatively constant if the injections are continued. Rest periods without injections cause a return of the renal threshold for hemoglobin toward the initial threshold levels—recovery threshold level. Injections of hemoglobin below the initial threshold level but above the minimal or depression threshold will eventually reduce the renal threshold for hemoglobin to its depression threshold level. We believe the depression threshold or minimal renal threshold level due to repeated hemoglobin injections is a little above the glomerular threshold which we assume is the base line threshold for hemoglobin. Our reasons for this belief in the glomerular threshold are given above and in the other papers of this series. PMID:19870016

Using threshold messages to promote physical activity: implications for public perceptions of health effects.

PubMed

Knox, Emily C L; Webb, Oliver J; Esliger, Dale W; Biddle, Stuart J H; Sherar, Lauren B

2014-04-01

The promotion of physical activity (PA) guidelines to the general public is an important issue that lacks empirical investigation. PA campaigns often feature participation thresholds that cite PA guidelines verbatim [e.g., 150 min/week moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA)]. Some campaigns instead prefer to use generic PA messages (e.g., do as much MVPA as possible). 'Thresholds' may disrupt understanding of the health benefits of modest PA participation. This study examined the perception of health benefits of PA after exposure to PA messages that did and did not contain a duration threshold. Brief structured interviews were conducted with a convenience sample of adults (n = 1100). Participants received a threshold message (150 min/week MVPA), a message that presented the threshold as a minimum; a generic message or no message. Participants rated perceived health effects of seven PA durations. One-way analyses of variance with post hoc tests for group differences were used to assess raw perception ratings for each duration of PA. Recipients of all three messages held more positive perceptions of >150 min/week of MVPA relative to those not receiving any message. For MVPA durations <150 min/week, the generic PA message group perceived the greatest health benefits. Those receiving the threshold message tended to have the least positive perceptions of durations <150 min/week. Threshold messages were associated with lower perceived health benefits for modest PA durations. Campaigns based on threshold messages may be limited when promoting small PA increases at a population level.

From innervation density to tactile acuity: 1. Spatial representation.

PubMed

Brown, Paul B; Koerber, H Richard; Millecchia, Ronald

2004-06-11

We tested the hypothesis that the population receptive field representation (a superposition of the excitatory receptive field areas of cells responding to a tactile stimulus) provides spatial information sufficient to mediate one measure of static tactile acuity. In psychophysical tests, two-point discrimination thresholds on the hindlimbs of adult cats varied as a function of stimulus location and orientation, as they do in humans. A statistical model of the excitatory low threshold mechanoreceptive fields of spinocervical, postsynaptic dorsal column and spinothalamic tract neurons was used to simulate the population receptive field representations in this neural population of the one- and two-point stimuli used in the psychophysical experiments. The simulated and observed thresholds were highly correlated. Simulated and observed thresholds' relations to physiological and anatomical variables such as stimulus location and orientation, receptive field size and shape, map scale, and innervation density were strikingly similar. Simulated and observed threshold variations with receptive field size and map scale obeyed simple relationships predicted by the signal detection model, and were statistically indistinguishable from each other. The population receptive field representation therefore contains information sufficient for this discrimination.

Cumulative Lead Exposure and Age-related Hearing Loss: The VA Normative Aging Study

PubMed Central

Park, Sung Kyun; Elmarsafawy, Sahar; Mukherjee, Bhramar; Spiro, Avron; Vokonas, Pantel S.; Nie, Huiling; Weisskopf, Marc G.; Schwartz, Joel; Hu, Howard

2010-01-01

Although lead has been associated with hearing loss in occupational settings and in children, little epidemiologic research has been conducted on the impact of cumulative lead exposure on age-related hearing loss in the general population. We determined whether bone lead levels, a marker of cumulative lead exposure, are associated with decreased hearing ability in 448 men from the Normative Aging Study, seen between 1962 and 1996 (2,264 total observations). Air conduction hearing thresholds were measured at 0.25 to 8 kHz and pure tone averages (PTA) (mean of 0.5, 1, 2 and 4 kHz) were computed. Tibia and patella lead levels were measured using K x-ray fluorescence between 1991 and 1996. In cross-sectional analyses, after adjusting for potential confounders including occupational noise, patella lead levels were significantly associated with poorer hearing thresholds at 2, 3, 4, 6 and 8 kHz and PTA. The odds of hearing loss significantly increased with patella lead levels. We also found significant positive associations between tibia lead and the rate change in hearing thresholds at 1, 2, and 8 kHz and PTA in longitudinal analyses. Our results suggest that chronic low-level lead exposure may be an important risk factor for age-related hearing loss and reduction of lead exposure could help prevent or delay development of age-related hearing loss. PMID:20638461

Direct measurement of the energy thresholds to conformational isomerization in tryptamine: experiment and theory.

PubMed

Clarkson, Jasper R; Dian, Brian C; Moriggi, Loïck; DeFusco, Albert; McCarthy, Valerie; Jordan, Kenneth D; Zwier, Timothy S

2005-06-01

The methods of stimulated emission pumping-hole filling spectroscopy (SEP-HFS) and stimulated emission pumping population transfer spectroscopy (SEP-PTS) were applied to the conformation-specific study of conformational isomerization in tryptamine [TRA, 3-(2-aminoethyl)indole]. These experimental methods employ stimulated emission pumping to selectively excite a fraction of the population of a single conformation of TRA to well-defined ground-state vibrational levels. This produces single conformations with well-defined internal energy, tunable over a range of energies from near the zero-point level to well above the lowest barriers to conformational isomerization. When the SEP step overcomes a barrier to isomerization, a fraction of the excited population isomerizes to form that product. By carrying out SEP excitation early in a supersonic expansion, these product molecules are subsequently cooled to their zero-point vibrational levels, where they can be detected downstream with a third tunable laser that probes the ground-state population of a particular product conformer via a unique ultraviolet transition using laser-induced fluorescence. The population transfer spectra (recorded by tuning the SEP dump laser while holding the pump and probe lasers fixed) exhibit sharp onsets that directly determine the energy thresholds for conformational isomerization in a given reactant-product conformer pair. In the absence of tunneling effects, the first observed transition in a given X-Y PTS constitutes an upper bound to the energy barrier to conformational isomerization, while the last transition not observed constitutes a lower bound. The bounds for isomerizing conformer A of tryptamine to B(688-748 cm(-1)), C(1)(860-1000 cm(-1)), C(2)(1219-1316 cm(-1)), D(1219-1282 cm(-1)), E(1219-1316 cm(-1)), and F(688-748 cm(-1)) are determined. In addition, thresholds for isomerizing from B to A(<1562 cm(-1)), B to F(562-688 cm(-1)), and out of C(2) to B(<747 cm(-1)) are also determined. The A-->B and B-->A transitions are used to place bounds on the relative energies of minima B relative to A, with B lying at least 126 cm(-1) above A. The corresponding barriers have been computed using both density functional and second-order many-body perturbation theory methods in order to establish the level of theory needed to reproduce experimental results. While most of the computed barriers match experiment well, the barriers for the A-F and B-F transitions are too high by almost a factor of 2. Possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed.

Evolution of complex density-dependent dispersal strategies.

PubMed

Parvinen, Kalle; Seppänen, Anne; Nagy, John D

2012-11-01

The question of how dispersal behavior is adaptive and how it responds to changes in selection pressure is more relevant than ever, as anthropogenic habitat alteration and climate change accelerate around the world. In metapopulation models where local populations are large, and thus local population size is measured in densities, density-dependent dispersal is expected to evolve to a single-threshold strategy, in which individuals stay in patches with local population density smaller than a threshold value and move immediately away from patches with local population density larger than the threshold. Fragmentation tends to convert continuous populations into metapopulations and also to decrease local population sizes. Therefore we analyze a metapopulation model, where each patch can support only a relatively small local population and thus experience demographic stochasticity. We investigated the evolution of density-dependent dispersal, emigration and immigration, in two scenarios: adult and natal dispersal. We show that density-dependent emigration can also evolve to a nonmonotone, "triple-threshold" strategy. This interesting phenomenon results from an interplay between the direct and indirect benefits of dispersal and the costs of dispersal. We also found that, compared to juveniles, dispersing adults may benefit more from density-dependent vs. density-independent dispersal strategies.

The characteristics of vibrotactile perception threshold among shipyard workers in a tropical environment.

PubMed

Tamrin, Shamsul Bahri Mohd; Jamalohdin, Mohd Nazri; Ng, Yee Guan; Maeda, Setsuo; Ali, Nurul Asyiqin Mohd

2012-01-01

The objectives of this study are to determine the prevalence of hand-arm vibration syndrome (HAVS) and the characteristics of the vibrotactile perception threshold (VPT) among users of hand-held vibrating tools working in a tropical environment. A cross sectional study was done among 47 shipyard workers using instruments and a questionnaire to determine HAVS related symptoms. The vibration acceleration magnitude was determined using a Human Vibration Meter (Maestro). A P8 Pallesthesiometer (EMSON-MAT, Poland) was used to determine the VPT of index and little finger at frequencies of 31.5 Hz and 125 Hz. The mean reference threshold shift was determined from the reference threshold shift derived from the VPT value. The results show a moderate prevalence of HAVS (49%) among the shipyard workers. They were exposed to the same high intensity level of HAVS (mean = 4.19 ± 1.94 m/s(2)) from the use of vibrating hand-held tools. The VPT values were found to be higher for both fingers and both frequencies (index, 31.5 Hz = 110.91 ± 7.36 dB, 125 Hz = 117.0 ± 10.25 dB; little, 31.5 Hz = 110.70 ± 6.75 dB, 125 Hz = 117.71 ± 10.25 dB) compared to the normal healthy population with a mean threshold shift of between 9.20 to 10.61 decibels. The frequency of 31.5 Hz had a higher percentage of positive mean reference threshold shift (index finger=93.6%, little finger=100%) compared to 125 Hz (index finger=85.1%, little finger=78.7%). In conclusion, the prevalence of HAVS was lower than those working in a cold environment; however, all workers had a higher mean VPT value compared to the normal population with all those reported as having HAVS showing a positive mean reference threshold shift of VPT value.

Ten Year Trends in Community HIV Viral Load in Barbados: Implications for Treatment as Prevention

PubMed Central

Landis, R. Clive; Branch-Beckles, Songee Lynn; Crichlow, Shawna; Hambleton, Ian R.; Best, Anton

2013-01-01

Background Treatment as prevention is a paradigm in HIV medicine which describes the public health benefit of antiretroviral therapy (ART). It is based on research showing substantial reductions in the risk of HIV transmission in persons with optimally suppressed HIV-1 Viral Loads (VL). The present study describes ten year VL trends at the national HIV treatment unit and estimates VL suppression at a population level in Barbados, a Caribbean island with a population of 277,000, an estimated adult HIV prevalence of 1.2%, and served by a single treatment unit. Methods The national HIV treatment centre of the Barbados Ministry of Health has a client VL database extending back to inception of the clinic in 2002 (n = 1,462 clients, n = 17,067 VL measurements). Optimal VL suppression was defined at a threshold value of ≤200 viral copies/mL. Results Analysis of VL trends showed a statistically significant improvement in VL suppression between 2002 to 2011, from 33.6% of clients achieving the 200 copies/mL threshold in 2002 to 70.3% in 2011 (P<0.001). Taking into account the proportion of clients alive and in care and on ART, the known diagnosed HIV population in Barbados, and estimates of unknown HIV infections, this translates into an estimated 26.2% VL suppression at a population level at the end of 2010. Conclusions We have demonstrated a significant trend towards optimal VL suppression in clients utilizing the services of the national HIV treatment program in Barbados over a 10-year period. Estimates of VL suppression at a population level are similar to reports in developed countries that applied similar methodologies and this could suggest a public health benefit of ART in minimizing the risk of sexual transmission of HIV. Continued efforts are warranted to extend HIV testing to hidden populations in Barbados and linking infected persons to care earlier in their disease. PMID:23520523

Assessing trade-offs to inform ecosystem-based fisheries management of forage fish.

PubMed

Shelton, Andrew Olaf; Samhouri, Jameal F; Stier, Adrian C; Levin, Philip S

2014-11-19

Twenty-first century conservation is centered on negotiating trade-offs between the diverse needs of people and the needs of the other species constituting coupled human-natural ecosystems. Marine forage fishes, such as sardines, anchovies, and herring, are a nexus for such trade-offs because they are both central nodes in marine food webs and targeted by fisheries. An important example is Pacific herring, Clupea pallisii in the Northeast Pacific. Herring populations are subject to two distinct fisheries: one that harvests adults and one that harvests spawned eggs. We develop stochastic, age-structured models to assess the interaction between fisheries, herring populations, and the persistence of predators reliant on herring populations. We show that egg- and adult-fishing have asymmetric effects on herring population dynamics--herring stocks can withstand higher levels of egg harvest before becoming depleted. Second, ecosystem thresholds proposed to ensure the persistence of herring predators do not necessarily pose more stringent constraints on fisheries than conventional, fishery driven harvest guidelines. Our approach provides a general template to evaluate ecosystem trade-offs between stage-specific harvest practices in relation to environmental variability, the risk of fishery closures, and the risk of exceeding ecosystem thresholds intended to ensure conservation goals are met.

Societal-level Risk Factors Associated with Pediatric Hearing Loss: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Vasconcellos, Adam P.; Colello, Stephanie; Kyle, Meghann E.; Shin, Jennifer J.

2015-01-01

Objective To determine if the current body of evidence describes specific threshold values of concern for modifiable societal-level risk factors for pediatric hearing loss, with the overarching goal of providing actionable guidance for the prevention and screening of audiological deficits in children. Data Sources Three related systematic reviews were performed. Computerized PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library searches were performed from inception through October 2013 and were supplemented with manual searches. Review Methods Inclusion/exclusion criteria were designed to determine specific threshold values of societal-level risk factors on hearing loss in the pediatric population. Searches and data extraction were performed by independent reviewers. Results There were 20 criterion-meeting studies with 29,128 participants. Infants less than 2 standard deviations below standardized weight, length, or body mass index were at increased risk. Specific nutritional deficiencies related to iodine and thiamine may also increase risk, although data are limited and threshold values of concern have not been quantified. Blood lead levels above 10 μg/dL were significantly associated with pediatric sensorineural loss, and mixed findings were noted for other heavy metals. Hearing loss was also more prevalent among children of socioeconomically disadvantaged families, as measured by a poverty income ratio less than 0.3 to 1, higher deprivation category status, and head of household employment as a manual laborer. Conclusions Increasing our understanding of specific thresholds of risk associated with causative factors forms the foundation for preventive and targeted screening programs as well as future research endeavors. PMID:24671458

Societal-level Risk Factors Associated with Pediatric Hearing Loss: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Vasconcellos, Adam P; Colello, Stephanie; Kyle, Meghann E; Shin, Jennifer J

2014-07-01

To determine if the current body of evidence describes specific threshold values of concern for modifiable societal-level risk factors for pediatric hearing loss, with the overarching goal of providing actionable guidance for the prevention and screening of audiological deficits in children. Three related systematic reviews were performed. Computerized PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane Library searches were performed from inception through October 2013 and were supplemented with manual searches. Inclusion/exclusion criteria were designed to determine specific threshold values of societal-level risk factors on hearing loss in the pediatric population. Searches and data extraction were performed by independent reviewers. There were 20 criterion-meeting studies with 29,128 participants. Infants less than 2 standard deviations below standardized weight, length, or body mass index were at increased risk. Specific nutritional deficiencies related to iodine and thiamine may also increase risk, although data are limited and threshold values of concern have not been quantified. Blood lead levels above 10 µg/dL were significantly associated with pediatric sensorineural loss, and mixed findings were noted for other heavy metals. Hearing loss was also more prevalent among children of socioeconomically disadvantaged families, as measured by a poverty income ratio less than 0.3 to 1, higher deprivation category status, and head of household employment as a manual laborer. Increasing our understanding of specific thresholds of risk associated with causative factors forms the foundation for preventive and targeted screening programs as well as future research endeavors. © American Academy of Otolaryngology—Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2014.

Spatially implicit approaches to understand the manipulation of mating success for insect invasion management

Treesearch

Takehiko Yamanaka; Andrew M. Liebhold

2009-01-01

Recent work indicates that Allee effects (the positive relationship between population size and per capita growth rate) are critical in determining the successful establishment of invading species. Allee effects may create population thresholds, and failure to establish is likely if invading populations fall below these thresholds. There are many mechanisms that may...

Modulation frequency discrimination with single and multiple channels in cochlear implant users

PubMed Central

Galvin, John J.; Oba, Sandy; Başkent, Deniz; Fu, Qian-Jie

2015-01-01

Temporal envelope cues convey important speech information for cochlear implant (CI) users. Many studies have explored CI users’ single-channel temporal envelope processing. However, in clinical CI speech processors, temporal envelope information is processed by multiple channels. Previous studies have shown that amplitude modulation frequency discrimination (AMFD) thresholds are better when temporal envelopes are delivered to multiple rather than single channels. In clinical fitting, current levels on single channels must often be reduced to accommodate multi-channel loudness summation. As such, it is unclear whether the multi-channel advantage in AMFD observed in previous studies was due to coherent envelope information distributed across the cochlea or to greater loudness associated with multi-channel stimulation. In this study, single- and multi-channel AMFD thresholds were measured in CI users. Multi-channel component electrodes were either widely or narrowly spaced to vary the degree of overlap between neural populations. The reference amplitude modulation (AM) frequency was 100 Hz, and coherent modulation was applied to all channels. In Experiment 1, single- and multi-channel AMFD thresholds were measured at similar loudness. In this case, current levels on component channels were higher for single- than for multi-channel AM stimuli, and the modulation depth was approximately 100% of the perceptual dynamic range (i.e., between threshold and maximum acceptable loudness). Results showed no significant difference in AMFD thresholds between similarly loud single- and multi-channel modulated stimuli. In Experiment 2, single- and multi-channel AMFD thresholds were compared at substantially different loudness. In this case, current levels on component channels were the same for single-and multi-channel stimuli (“summation-adjusted” current levels) and the same range of modulation (in dB) was applied to the component channels for both single- and multi-channel testing. With the summation-adjusted current levels, loudness was lower with single than with multiple channels and the AM depth resulted in substantial stimulation below single-channel audibility, thereby reducing the perceptual range of AM. Results showed that AMFD thresholds were significantly better with multiple channels than with any of the single component channels. There was no significant effect of the distribution of electrodes on multi-channel AMFD thresholds. The results suggest that increased loudness due to multi-channel summation may contribute to the multi-channel advantage in AMFD, and that that overall loudness may matter more than the distribution of envelope information in the cochlea. PMID:25746914

Effect of MR Imaging Contrast Thresholds on Prediction of Neoadjuvant Chemotherapy Response in Breast Cancer Subtypes: A Subgroup Analysis of the ACRIN 6657/I-SPY 1 TRIAL

PubMed Central

Li, Wen; Arasu, Vignesh; Newitt, David C.; Jones, Ella F.; Wilmes, Lisa; Gibbs, Jessica; Kornak, John; Joe, Bonnie N.; Esserman, Laura J.; Hylton, Nola M.

2016-01-01

Functional tumor volume (FTV) measurements by dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging can predict treatment outcomes for women receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy for breast cancer. Here, we explore whether the contrast thresholds used to define FTV could be adjusted by breast cancer subtype to improve predictive performance. Absolute FTV and percent change in FTV (ΔFTV) at sequential time-points during treatment were calculated and investigated as predictors of pathologic complete response at surgery. Early percent enhancement threshold (PEt) and signal enhancement ratio threshold (SERt) were varied. The predictive performance of resulting FTV predictors was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A total number of 116 patients were studied both as a full cohort and in the following groups defined by hormone receptor (HR) and HER2 receptor subtype: 45 HR+/HER2−, 39 HER2+, and 30 triple negatives. High AUCs were found at different ranges of PEt and SERt levels in different subtypes. Findings from this study suggest that the predictive performance to treatment response by MRI varies by contrast thresholds, and that pathologic complete response prediction may be improved through subtype-specific contrast enhancement thresholds. A validation study is underway with a larger patient population. PMID:28066808

Modelling the regional variability of the probability of high trihalomethane occurrence in municipal drinking water.

PubMed

Cool, Geneviève; Lebel, Alexandre; Sadiq, Rehan; Rodriguez, Manuel J

2015-12-01

The regional variability of the probability of occurrence of high total trihalomethane (TTHM) levels was assessed using multilevel logistic regression models that incorporate environmental and infrastructure characteristics. The models were structured in a three-level hierarchical configuration: samples (first level), drinking water utilities (DWUs, second level) and natural regions, an ecological hierarchical division from the Quebec ecological framework of reference (third level). They considered six independent variables: precipitation, temperature, source type, seasons, treatment type and pH. The average probability of TTHM concentrations exceeding the targeted threshold was 18.1%. The probability was influenced by seasons, treatment type, precipitations and temperature. The variance at all levels was significant, showing that the probability of TTHM concentrations exceeding the threshold is most likely to be similar if located within the same DWU and within the same natural region. However, most of the variance initially attributed to natural regions was explained by treatment types and clarified by spatial aggregation on treatment types. Nevertheless, even after controlling for treatment type, there was still significant regional variability of the probability of TTHM concentrations exceeding the threshold. Regional variability was particularly important for DWUs using chlorination alone since they lack the appropriate treatment required to reduce the amount of natural organic matter (NOM) in source water prior to disinfection. Results presented herein could be of interest to authorities in identifying regions with specific needs regarding drinking water quality and for epidemiological studies identifying geographical variations in population exposure to disinfection by-products (DBPs).

A synthesis of thresholds for focal species along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts: A review of research and applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powell, Emily J.; Tyrrell, Megan C.; Milliken, Andrew; Tirpak, John M.; Staudinger, Michelle D.

2017-01-01

The impacts from climate change are increasing the possibility of vulnerable coastal species and habitats crossing critical thresholds that could spur rapid and possibly irreversible changes. For species of high conservation concern, improved knowledge of quantitative thresholds could greatly improve management. To meet this need, we synthesized information pertaining to biological responses as tipping points to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal storms for 45 fish, wildlife, and plant species along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts and Caribbean through a literature review and expert elicitation. Although these species were selected based on their ecological, economic, and cultural importance, just over half (56%, n = 25) have quantitative threshold data currently available that can be used to assess the effects of SLR and storms during some aspect of their life history. Birds, reptiles, and plants represent the best studied coastal species. Thirteen of the species (29%) are projected to lose at least 50% of their population or habitat (e.g., foraging, nesting, spawning, or resting habitat) in some areas with a 0.5 m or greater rise in sea levels by 2100. Two species (a bird and reptile) may gain habitat from projected SLR and be resilient to future impacts. Numeric thresholds were not available for the remaining 20 species we searched for. Coastal fishes, mammals, and amphibians were among the groups representing a major information gap in this field of research. In addition, quantitative threshold responses to coastal storms were scarce for all taxa. While vulnerability assessments and qualitative research related to the impacts of SLR and storms on coastal species and habitats are increasing, work that incorporates quantitative thresholds as response and impact metrics remains limited. Additional monitoring, modeling, and research that provides multiple quantitative thresholds across species' life stages and/or latitudinal gradients is ideal to support robust coastal management and decision-making across spatio-temporal scales in the face of climate change.

Geospatial Association between Low Birth Weight and Arsenic in Groundwater in New Hampshire, USA

PubMed Central

Shi, Xun; Ayotte, Joseph D.; Onda, Akikazu; Miller, Stephanie; Rees, Judy; Gilbert-Diamond, Diane; Onega, Tracy; Gui, Jiang; Karagas, Margaret; Moeschler, John

2015-01-01

Background There is increasing evidence of the role of arsenic in the etiology of adverse human reproductive outcomes. Since drinking water can be a major source of arsenic to pregnant women, the effect of arsenic exposure through drinking water on human birth may be revealed by a geospatial association between arsenic concentration in groundwater and birth problems, particularly in a region where private wells substantially account for water supply, like New Hampshire, US. Methods We calculated town-level rates of preterm birth and term low birth weight (term LBW) for New Hampshire, using data for 1997-2009 and stratified by maternal age. We smoothed the rates using a locally-weighted averaging method to increase the statistical stability. The town-level groundwater arsenic values are from three GIS data layers generated by the US Geological Survey: probability of local groundwater arsenic concentration > 1 μg/L, probability > 5 μg/L, and probability > 10 μg/L. We calculated Pearson's correlation coefficients (r) between the reproductive outcomes (preterm birth and term LBW) and the arsenic values, at both state and county levels. Results For preterm birth, younger mothers (maternal age < 20) have a statewide r = 0.70 between the rates smoothed with a threshold = 2,000 births and the town mean arsenic level based on the data of probability > 10 μg/L; For older mothers, r = 0.19 when the smoothing threshold = 3,500; A majority of county level r values are positive based on the arsenic data of probability > 10 μg/L. For term LBW, younger mothers (maternal age < 25) have a statewide r = 0.44 between the rates smoothed with a threshold = 3,500 and town minimum arsenic level based on the data of probability > 1 μg/L; For older mothers, r = 0.14 when the rates are smoothed with a threshold = 1,000 births and also adjusted by town median household income in 1999, and the arsenic values are the town minimum based on probability > 10 μg/L. At the county level, for younger mothers positive r values prevail, but for older mothers it is a mix. For both birth problems, the several most populous counties - with 60-80% of the state's population and clustering at the southwest corner of the state – are largely consistent in having a positive r across different smoothing thresholds. Conclusion We found evident spatial associations between the two adverse human reproductive outcomes and groundwater arsenic in New Hampshire, US. However, the degree of associations and their sensitivity to different representations of arsenic level are variable. Generally, preterm birth has a stronger spatial association with groundwater arsenic than term LBW, suggesting an inconsistency in the impact of arsenic on the two reproductive outcomes. For both outcomes, younger maternal age has stronger spatial associations with groundwater arsenic. PMID:25326895

Relationship between exploitation, oscillation, MSY and extinction.

PubMed

Ghosh, Bapan; Kar, T K; Legovic, T

2014-10-01

We give answers to two important problems arising in current fisheries: (i) how maximum sustainable yield (MSY) policy is influenced by the initial population level, and (ii) how harvesting, oscillation and MSY are related to each other in prey-predator systems. To examine the impact of initial population on exploitation, we analyze a single species model with strong Allee effect. It is found that even when the MSY exists, the dynamic solution may not converge to the equilibrium stock if the initial population level is higher but near the critical threshold level. In a prey-predator system with Allee effect in the prey species, the initial population does not have such important impact neither on MSY nor on maximum sustainable total yield (MSTY). However, harvesting the top predator may cause extinction of all species if odd number of trophic levels exist in the ecosystem. With regard to the second problem, we study two prey-predator models and establish that increasing harvesting effort either on prey, predator or both prey and predator destroys previously existing oscillation. Moreover, equilibrium stock both at MSY and MSTY level is stable. We also discuss the validity of found results to other prey-predator systems. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prostate-specific antigen levels in the United States: implications of various definitions for abnormal.

PubMed

Welch, H Gilbert; Schwartz, Lisa M; Woloshin, Steven

2005-08-03

The finding that some men with a normal prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level (i.e., less than 4 ng/mL) nonetheless have microscopic evidence of prostate cancer has led to some suggestions that the threshold defining abnormal should be lowered to 2.5 ng/mL. We examined the effect of this lower threshold on the number of American men who would be labeled abnormal by a single PSA test. We obtained PSA data on a nationally representative sample of American men 40 years of age and older with no history of prostate cancer and no current inflammation or infection of the prostate gland (n = 1308) from the 2001-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We obtained data on the 10-year risk of prostate cancer death in the pre-PSA era from DevCan, the National Cancer Institute's software to calculate the probability of dying of cancer. Based on NHANES data, approximately 1.5 million American men aged 40 to 69 years have a PSA level over 4.0 ng/mL. Lowering the threshold to 2.5 ng/mL would label an additional 1.8 million men as abnormal, if all men were screened. For men aged 70 years or older, the corresponding numbers are 1.5 and 1.2 million. The proportion of the population affected by different thresholds would vary with age. Among men in their 60s, for example, 17% have a PSA level over 2.5 ng/mL, 5.7% have a PSA level over 4.0 ng/mL, and 1.7% have a PSA level over 10.0 ng/mL. For context, only 0.9% of men in their 60s are expected to die from prostate cancer in the next 10 years. Lowering the PSA threshold to 2.5 ng/mL would double the number of men defined as abnormal, to up to 6 million. Until there is evidence that screening is effective, increasing the number of men recommended for prostate biopsy--and the number potentially diagnosed and treated unnecessarily--would be a mistake.

Age-associated variation in sensory perception of iron in drinking water and the potential for overexposure in the human population.

PubMed

Mirlohi, Susan; Dietrich, Andrea M; Duncan, Susan E

2011-08-01

Humans interact with their environment through the five senses, but little is known about population variability in the ability to assess contaminants. Sensory thresholds and biochemical indicators of metallic flavor perception in humans were evaluated for ferrous (Fe(2+)) iron in drinking water; subjects aged 19-84 years participated. Metallic flavor thresholds for individuals and subpopulations based on age were determined. Oral lipid oxidation and oral pH were measured in saliva as potential biochemical indicators. Individual thresholds were 0.007-14.14 mg/L Fe(2+) and the overall population threshold was 0.17 mg/L Fe(2+) in reagent water. Average thresholds for individuals younger and older than 50 years of age (grouped by the daily recommended nutritional guidelines for iron intake) were significantly different (p = 0.013); the population thresholds for each group were 0.045 mg/L Fe(2+) and 0.498 mg/L Fe(2+), respectively. Many subjects >50 and a few subjects <50 years were insensitive to metallic flavor. There was no correlation between age, oral lipid oxidation, and oral pH. Standardized olfactory assessment found poor sensitivity for Fe(2+) corresponded with conditions of mild, moderate, and total anosmia. The findings demonstrate an age-dependent sensitivity to iron indicating as people age they are less sensitive to metallic perception.

Methodological issues when comparing hearing thresholds of a group with population standards: the case of the ferry engineers.

PubMed

Dobie, Robert A

2006-10-01

To discuss appropriate and inappropriate methods for comparing distributions of hearing thresholds of a study group with distributions in population standards and to determine whether the thresholds of Washington State Ferries engineers are different from those of men in the general population, using both frequency-by-frequency comparisons and analysis of audiometric shape. The most recent hearing conservation program audiograms of 321 noise-exposed engineers, ages 35 to 64, were compared with the predictions of Annexes A, B, and C from ANSI S3.44. There was no screening by history or otoscopy; all audiograms were included. 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated for the engineers' median thresholds for each ear, for the better ear (defined two ways), and for the binaural average. For Annex B, where 95% CIs are also available, it was possible to calculate z scores for the differences between Annex B and the engineers' better ears. Bulge depth, an audiometric shape statistic, measured curvature between 1 and 6 kHz. Engineers' better-ear median thresholds were worse than those in Annex A but (except at 1 kHz) were as good as or better than those in Annexes B and C, which are more appropriate for comparison to an unscreened noise-exposed group like the engineers. Average bulge depth for the engineers was similar to that of the Annex B standard (no added occupational noise) and was much less than that of audiograms created by using the standard with added occupational noise between 90 and 100 dBA. Audiograms from groups that have been selected for a particular exposure, but, without regard to severity, can appropriately be compared with population standards, if certain pitfalls are avoided. For unscreened study groups with large age-sex subgroups, a simple method to assess statistical significance, taking into consideration uncertainties in both the study group and the comparison standard, is the calculation of z scores for the proportion of better-ear thresholds above the Annex B median. A less powerful method combines small age-sex subgroups after age correction. Small threshold differences, even if statistically significant, may not be due to genuine differences in hearing sensitivity between study group and standard. Audiometric shape analysis offers an independent dimension of comparison between the study group and audiograms predicted from the ANSI S3.44 standard, with and without occupational noise exposure. Important pitfalls in comparison to population standards include nonrandom selection of study groups, inappropriate choice of population standard, use of the right and left ear thresholds instead of the better-ear threshold for comparison to Annex B, and comparing means with medians. The thresholds of the engineers in this study were similar to published standards for an unscreened population.

Demand for Colonoscopy in Colorectal Cancer Screening Using a Quantitative Fecal Immunochemical Test and Age/Sex-Specific Thresholds for Test Positivity.

PubMed

Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Hsu, Chen-Yang; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Young, Graeme P; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Lee, Yi-Chia; Chiu, Han-Mo; Chiou, Shu-Ti; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi

2018-06-01

Background: Despite age and sex differences in fecal hemoglobin (f-Hb) concentrations, most fecal immunochemical test (FIT) screening programs use population-average cut-points for test positivity. The impact of age/sex-specific threshold on FIT accuracy and colonoscopy demand for colorectal cancer screening are unknown. Methods: Using data from 723,113 participants enrolled in a Taiwanese population-based colorectal cancer screening with single FIT between 2004 and 2009, sensitivity and specificity were estimated for various f-Hb thresholds for test positivity. This included estimates based on a "universal" threshold, receiver-operating-characteristic curve-derived threshold, targeted sensitivity, targeted false-positive rate, and a colonoscopy-capacity-adjusted method integrating colonoscopy workload with and without age/sex adjustments. Results: Optimal age/sex-specific thresholds were found to be equal to or lower than the universal 20 μg Hb/g threshold. For older males, a higher threshold (24 μg Hb/g) was identified using a 5% false-positive rate. Importantly, a nonlinear relationship was observed between sensitivity and colonoscopy workload with workload rising disproportionately to sensitivity at 16 μg Hb/g. At this "colonoscopy-capacity-adjusted" threshold, the test positivity (colonoscopy workload) was 4.67% and sensitivity was 79.5%, compared with a lower 4.0% workload and a lower 78.7% sensitivity using 20 μg Hb/g. When constrained on capacity, age/sex-adjusted estimates were generally lower. However, optimizing age/-sex-adjusted thresholds increased colonoscopy demand across models by 17% or greater compared with a universal threshold. Conclusions: Age/sex-specific thresholds improve FIT accuracy with modest increases in colonoscopy demand. Impact: Colonoscopy-capacity-adjusted and age/sex-specific f-Hb thresholds may be useful in optimizing individual screening programs based on detection accuracy, population characteristics, and clinical capacity. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 27(6); 704-9. ©2018 AACR . ©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.

Identification of a threshold for biomass exposure index for chronic bronchitis in rural women of Mysore district, Karnataka, India.

PubMed

Mahesh, P A; Jayaraj, B S; Prabhakar, A K; Chaya, S K; Vijaysimha, R

2013-01-01

Exposure to air pollution due to combustion of biomass fuels remains one of the significant risk factors for chronic respiratory diseases such as chronic bronchitis. There is a need to identify the minimum threshold level of biomass index that is significantly associated with chronic bronchitis. This study was undertaken to identify a threshold for biomass exposure index in a rural women population in Mysore district, south India. A cross-sectional survey was conducted in a representative population of Mysore and Nanjangud taluks. Eight villages each from Mysore and Nanjangud were randomly selected based on the list of villages from census 2001. A house-to-house survey was carried out by trained field workers using the Burden of Obstructive Diseases questionnaire, which evaluated the biomass smoke exposure and chronic bronchitis. All the women aged above 30 yr were included in the study. A total of 2011 women from Mysore and 1942 women from Nanjangud participated in the study. All women were non-smoking and used biomass fuels as the primary fuel for cooking. A threshold of biomass fuel exposure of 60 was identified on multivariate analysis in Mysore district after adjusting for age, passive smoking and working in a occupational exposure to dust, as the minimum required for a significant association with chronic bronchitis. One in every 20 women in Mysore district exposed to biomass fuel exposure index of 110 or more developed chronic bronchitis. The minimum threshold of biomass exposure index of 60 is necessary to have a significant risk of developing chronic bronchitis in women. The number needed to harm to develop chronic bronchitis reduces with increasing biomass exposure index and women residing in rural Nanjangud have a higher risk for developing chronic bronchitis as compared to women in Mysore.

Towards a threshold climate for emergency lower respiratory hospital admissions.

PubMed

Islam, Muhammad Saiful; Chaussalet, Thierry J; Koizumi, Naoru

2017-02-01

Identification of 'cut-points' or thresholds of climate factors would play a crucial role in alerting risks of climate change and providing guidance to policymakers. This study investigated a 'Climate Threshold' for emergency hospital admissions of chronic lower respiratory diseases by using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We analysed a unique longitudinal dataset (10 years, 2000-2009) on emergency hospital admissions, climate, and pollution factors for the Greater London. Our study extends existing work on this topic by considering non-linearity, lag effects between climate factors and disease exposure within the DLNM model considering B-spline as smoothing technique. The final model also considered natural cubic splines of time since exposure and 'day of the week' as confounding factors. The results of DLNM indicated a significant improvement in model fitting compared to a typical GLM model. The final model identified the thresholds of several climate factors including: high temperature (≥27°C), low relative humidity (≤ 40%), high Pm10 level (≥70-µg/m 3 ), low wind speed (≤ 2 knots) and high rainfall (≥30mm). Beyond the threshold values, a significantly higher number of emergency admissions due to lower respiratory problems would be expected within the following 2-3 days after the climate shift in the Greater London. The approach will be useful to initiate 'region and disease specific' climate mitigation plans. It will help identify spatial hot spots and the most sensitive areas and population due to climate change, and will eventually lead towards a diversified health warning system tailored to specific climate zones and populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ages and Stages Questionnaire at 3 Years for Predicting IQ at 5-6 Years.

PubMed

Charkaluk, Marie-Laure; Rousseau, Jessica; Calderon, Johanna; Bernard, Jonathan Y; Forhan, Anne; Heude, Barbara; Kaminski, Monique

2017-04-01

To assess the predictive value of the 36-month Ages & Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) score for IQ score at age 5 to 6 years in the general population and to identify factors associated with IQ <85 once the ASQ score is taken into account. Data were collected from 939 children enrolled in a population-based prospective cohort study. Developmental outcomes at 36 months were assessed via the ASQ and at 5 to 6 years via the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence. The ASQ threshold was identified via the receiver operating characteristic curve. Additional predictive factors to obtain an IQ <85 were investigated, and their interaction with ASQ score was studied. Sixty-nine children (7.3%) had an IQ <85. A 36-month ASQ score threshold of 270 was optimal to identify children with an IQ <85 at 5 to 6 years, with a 0.77 ± 0.11 sensitivity and 0.68 ± 0.03 specificity. Maternal educational level and occupational activity at the time of ASQ completion were associated with the risk of an IQ <85 at a given ASQ level. In the multivariate model, no interaction between the studied factors and ASQ score reached significance. In the general pediatric population, 36-month ASQ parental reports could be used to identify children at later risk of cognitive delay. Low maternal education level should also be considered as a major risk factor for lower IQ in preschool children regardless of ASQ score. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.

Color Vision Losses in Autism Spectrum Disorders

PubMed Central

Zachi, Elaine C.; Costa, Thiago L.; Barboni, Mirella T. S.; Costa, Marcelo F.; Bonci, Daniela M. O.; Ventura, Dora F.

2017-01-01

Autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) are neurodevelopmental conditions characterized by impairments in social/communication abilities and restricted behaviors. The present study aims to examine color vision discrimination in ASD children and adolescents without intellectual disability. The participants were also subdivided in order to compare color vision thresholds of autistic participants and those who achieved diagnostic criteria for Asperger Syndrome (AS). Nine subjects with autism, 11 participants with AS and 36 typically developing children and adolescents participated in the study. Color vision was assessed by the Cambridge Color Test (CCT). The Trivector protocol was administered to determine color discrimination thresholds along the protan, deutan, and tritan color confusion lines. Data from ASD participants were compared to tolerance limits for 90% of the population with 90% probability obtained from controls thresholds. Of the 20 ASD individuals examined, 6 (30%) showed color vision losses. Elevated color discrimination thresholds were found in 3/9 participants with autism and in 3/11 AS participants. Diffuse and tritan deficits were found. Mechanisms for chromatic losses may be either at the retinal level and/or reflect reduced cortical integration. PMID:28713324

Plague epizootic cycles in Central Asia.

PubMed

Reijniers, Jonas; Begon, Mike; Ageyev, Vladimir S; Leirs, Herwig

2014-06-01

Infection thresholds, widely used in disease epidemiology, may operate on host abundance and, if present, on vector abundance. For wildlife populations, host and vector abundances often vary greatly across years and consequently the threshold may be crossed regularly, both up- and downward. Moreover, vector and host abundances may be interdependent, which may affect the infection dynamics. Theory predicts that if the relevant abundance, or combination of abundances, is above the threshold, then the infection is able to spread; if not, it is bound to fade out. In practice, though, the observed level of infection may depend more on past than on current abundances. Here, we study the temporal dynamics of plague (Yersinia pestis infection), its vector (flea) and its host (great gerbil) in the PreBalkhash region in Kazakhstan. We describe how host and vector abundances interact over time and how this interaction drives the dynamics of the system around the infection threshold, consequently affecting the proportion of plague-infected sectors. We also explore the importance of the interplay between biological and detectability delays in generating the observed dynamics.

Geospatial association between adverse birth outcomes and arsenic in groundwater in New Hampshire, USA.

PubMed

Shi, Xun; Ayotte, Joseph D; Onda, Akikazu; Miller, Stephanie; Rees, Judy; Gilbert-Diamond, Diane; Onega, Tracy; Gui, Jiang; Karagas, Margaret; Moeschler, John

2015-04-01

There is increasing evidence of the role of arsenic in the etiology of adverse human reproductive outcomes. Because drinking water can be a major source of arsenic to pregnant women, the effect of arsenic exposure through drinking water on human birth may be revealed by a geospatial association between arsenic concentration in groundwater and birth problems, particularly in a region where private wells substantially account for water supply, like New Hampshire, USA. We calculated town-level rates of preterm birth and term low birth weight (term LBW) for New Hampshire, by using data for 1997-2009 stratified by maternal age. We smoothed the rates by using a locally weighted averaging method to increase the statistical stability. The town-level groundwater arsenic probability values are from three GIS data layers generated by the US Geological Survey: probability of local groundwater arsenic concentration >1 µg/L, probability >5 µg/L, and probability >10 µg/L. We calculated Pearson's correlation coefficients (r) between the reproductive outcomes (preterm birth and term LBW) and the arsenic probability values, at both state and county levels. For preterm birth, younger mothers (maternal age <20) have a statewide r = 0.70 between the rates smoothed with a threshold = 2,000 births and the town mean arsenic level based on the data of probability >10 µg/L; for older mothers, r = 0.19 when the smoothing threshold = 3,500; a majority of county level r values are positive based on the arsenic data of probability >10 µg/L. For term LBW, younger mothers (maternal age <25) have a statewide r = 0.44 between the rates smoothed with a threshold = 3,500 and town minimum arsenic concentration based on the data of probability >1 µg/L; for older mothers, r = 0.14 when the rates are smoothed with a threshold = 1,000 births and also adjusted by town median household income in 1999, and the arsenic values are the town minimum based on probability >10 µg/L. At the county level for younger mothers, positive r values prevail, but for older mothers, it is a mix. For both birth problems, the several most populous counties-with 60-80 % of the state's population and clustering at the southwest corner of the state-are largely consistent in having a positive r across different smoothing thresholds. We found evident spatial associations between the two adverse human reproductive outcomes and groundwater arsenic in New Hampshire, USA. However, the degree of associations and their sensitivity to different representations of arsenic level are variable. Generally, preterm birth has a stronger spatial association with groundwater arsenic than term LBW, suggesting an inconsistency in the impact of arsenic on the two reproductive outcomes. For both outcomes, younger maternal age has stronger spatial associations with groundwater arsenic.

Polarization operator of a photon in a magnetic field

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Katkov, V. M., E-mail: V.M.Katkov@inp.nsk.su

2016-08-15

The polarization operator of a photon in a static uniform magnetic field has been studied at photon energies both above and below the threshold of electron–positron pair production by a photon. In the first order of the fine-structure constant α, expressions for the refractive index of a photon with a certain polarization in both low and high fields as compared to the critical field H{sub 0} = 4.41 × 10{sup 13} G have been obtained. Both the purely quantum range of photon energies, where the particles of a pair are produced at the lowest Landau levels, and the region ofmore » applicability of the semiclassical approximation in the case of the population of high energy levels have been considered. A general spectral integral formula has been obtained with divergent threshold terms separated in an explicit form.« less

Preventing Childhood Malaria in Africa by Protecting Adults from Mosquitoes with Insecticide-Treated Nets

PubMed Central

Killeen, Gerry F; Smith, Tom A; Ferguson, Heather M; Mshinda, Hassan; Abdulla, Salim; Lengeler, Christian; Kachur, Steven P

2007-01-01

Background Malaria prevention in Africa merits particular attention as the world strives toward a better life for the poorest. Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) represent a practical means to prevent malaria in Africa, so scaling up coverage to at least 80% of young children and pregnant women by 2010 is integral to the Millennium Development Goals (MDG). Targeting individual protection to vulnerable groups is an accepted priority, but community-level impacts of broader population coverage are largely ignored even though they may be just as important. We therefore estimated coverage thresholds for entire populations at which individual- and community-level protection are equivalent, representing rational targets for ITN coverage beyond vulnerable groups. Methods and Findings Using field-parameterized malaria transmission models, we show that high (80% use) but exclusively targeted coverage of young children and pregnant women (representing <20% of the population) will deliver limited protection and equity for these vulnerable groups. In contrast, relatively modest coverage (35%–65% use, with this threshold depending on ecological scenario and net quality) of all adults and children, rather than just vulnerable groups, can achieve equitable community-wide benefits equivalent to or greater than personal protection. Conclusions Coverage of entire populations will be required to accomplish large reductions of the malaria burden in Africa. While coverage of vulnerable groups should still be prioritized, the equitable and communal benefits of wide-scale ITN use by older children and adults should be explicitly promoted and evaluated by national malaria control programmes. ITN use by the majority of entire populations could protect all children in such communities, even those not actually covered by achieving existing personal protection targets of the MDG, Roll Back Malaria Partnership, or the US President's Malaria Initiative. PMID:17608562

Population pharmacokinetic characterization of BAY 81-8973, a full-length recombinant factor VIII: lessons learned - importance of including samples with factor VIII levels below the quantitation limit.

PubMed

Garmann, D; McLeay, S; Shah, A; Vis, P; Maas Enriquez, M; Ploeger, B A

2017-07-01

The pharmacokinetics (PK), safety and efficacy of BAY 81-8973, a full-length, unmodified, recombinant human factor VIII (FVIII), were evaluated in the LEOPOLD trials. The aim of this study was to develop a population PK model based on pooled data from the LEOPOLD trials and to investigate the importance of including samples with FVIII levels below the limit of quantitation (BLQ) to estimate half-life. The analysis included 1535 PK observations (measured by the chromogenic assay) from 183 male patients with haemophilia A aged 1-61 years from the 3 LEOPOLD trials. The limit of quantitation was 1.5 IU dL -1 for the majority of samples. Population PK models that included or excluded BLQ samples were used for FVIII half-life estimations, and simulations were performed using both estimates to explore the influence on the time below a determined FVIII threshold. In the data set used, approximately 16.5% of samples were BLQ, which is not uncommon for FVIII PK data sets. The structural model to describe the PK of BAY 81-8973 was a two-compartment model similar to that seen for other FVIII products. If BLQ samples were excluded from the model, FVIII half-life estimations were longer compared with a model that included BLQ samples. It is essential to assess the importance of BLQ samples when performing population PK estimates of half-life for any FVIII product. Exclusion of BLQ data from half-life estimations based on population PK models may result in an overestimation of half-life and underestimation of time under a predetermined FVIII threshold, resulting in potential underdosing of patients. © 2017 Bayer AG. Haemophilia Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Speech Recognition Thresholds for Multilingual Populations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ramkissoon, Ishara

2001-01-01

This article traces the development of speech audiometry in the United States and reports on the current status, focusing on the needs of a multilingual population in terms of measuring speech recognition threshold (SRT). It also discusses sociolinguistic considerations, alternative SRT stimuli for second language learners, and research on using…

DEARS particulate matter relationships for personal, indoor, outdoor, and central site settings for a general population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodes, Charles E.; Lawless, Phil A.; Thornburg, Jonathan W.; Williams, Ronald W.; Croghan, Carry W.

2010-04-01

This analysis provides the initial summary of PM 2.5 mass concentrations relationships for all seasons and participants for a general population in the Detroit Exposure and Aerosol Research Study (DEARS). The summary presented highlights the utility of the new methodologies applied, in addition to summarizing the particulate matter (PM) data. Results include the requirement to adjust the exposure data for monitor wearing compliance and measured environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) levels, even though the study design specified a non-smoking household. A 40% wearing compliance acceptance level was suggested as necessary to balance minimizing exposure misclassification (from poor compliance) and having sufficient data to conduct robust statistical analyses. An ETS threshold level equivalent to adding more than 1.5 μg m -3 to the collected sample was found to be necessary to detect changes in the personal exposure factor ( Fpex). It is not completely clear why such a large threshold level was necessary. Statistically significant spatial PM 2.5 gradients were identified in three of the six DEARS neighborhoods in Wayne County. These were expected, given the number of strong, localized PM sources in the Detroit (Michigan) metro area. Some residential outdoor bias levels compared with the central site at Allen Park exceeded 15%. After adjusting for ETS biases, the outdoor contributions to the personal exposure were typically larger by factors from 1.75 to 2.2 compared with those of the non-outdoor sources. The outdoor contribution was larger in the summer than in the winter, which is consistent with the fractions of time spent outdoors in the summer vs. the winter (6.7% vs. 1.1% of the time). Mean personal PM 2.5 cloud levels for the general population DEARS cohort ranged from 1.5 to 3.8 (after ETS adjustment) and were comparable to those reported previously. The personal exposure collections indoors were typically at least 13 times greater than those contributed outdoors.

Circumpolar contaminant concentrations in polar bears (Ursus maritimus) and potential population-level effects.

PubMed

Nuijten, R J M; Hendriks, A J; Jenssen, B M; Schipper, A M

2016-11-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) currently receive much attention in the context of global climate change. However, there are other stressors that might threaten the viability of polar bear populations as well, such as exposure to anthropogenic pollutants. Lipophilic organic compounds bio-accumulate and bio-magnify in the food chain, leading to high concentrations at the level of top-predators. In Arctic wildlife, including the polar bear, various adverse health effects have been related to internal concentrations of commercially used anthropogenic chemicals like PCB and DDT. The extent to which these individual health effects are associated to population-level effects is, however, unknown. In this study we assembled data on adipose tissue concentrations of ∑PCB, ∑DDT, dieldrin and ∑PBDE in individual polar bears from peer-reviewed scientific literature. Data were available for 14 out of the 19 subpopulations. We found that internal concentrations of these contaminants exceed threshold values for adverse individual health effects in several subpopulations. In an exploratory regression analysis we identified a clear negative correlation between polar bear population density and sub-population specific contaminant concentrations in adipose tissue. The results suggest that adverse health effects of contaminants in individual polar bears may scale up to population-level consequences. Our study highlights the need to consider contaminant exposure along with other threats in polar bear population viability analyses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Widespread exposure to lead affects the body condition of free-living whooper swans Cygnus cygnus wintering in Britain.

PubMed

Newth, J L; Rees, E C; Cromie, R L; McDonald, R A; Bearhop, S; Pain, D J; Norton, G J; Deacon, C; Hilton, G M

2016-02-01

Lead poisoning, through the ingestion of spent lead gunshot, is an established cause of morbidity and mortality in waterbirds globally, but the thresholds at which blood levels begin to affect the physiology of birds in the wild are less well known. Here we determine the prevalence of lead exposure in whooper swans and, for the first time, identify the level of blood lead associated with initial reductions in body condition. Blood lead elevated above background levels (i.e. >20 μg dL(-1)) was found in 41.7% (125/300) of swans tested. Blood lead was significantly negatively associated with winter body condition when levels were ≥44 μg dL(-1) (27/260 = 10%). Our findings indicating that sub-lethal impacts of lead on body condition occur at the lower end of previously established clinical thresholds and that a relatively high proportion of individuals in this population may be affected, reaffirm the importance of reducing contamination of the environment with lead shot. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Experimental evidence of a pathogen invasion threshold

PubMed Central

Krkošek, Martin

2018-01-01

Host density thresholds to pathogen invasion separate regions of parameter space corresponding to endemic and disease-free states. The host density threshold is a central concept in theoretical epidemiology and a common target of human and wildlife disease control programmes, but there is mixed evidence supporting the existence of thresholds, especially in wildlife populations or for pathogens with complex transmission modes (e.g. environmental transmission). Here, we demonstrate the existence of a host density threshold for an environmentally transmitted pathogen by combining an epidemiological model with a microcosm experiment. Experimental epidemics consisted of replicate populations of naive crustacean zooplankton (Daphnia dentifera) hosts across a range of host densities (20–640 hosts l−1) that were exposed to an environmentally transmitted fungal pathogen (Metschnikowia bicuspidata). Epidemiological model simulations, parametrized independently of the experiment, qualitatively predicted experimental pathogen invasion thresholds. Variability in parameter estimates did not strongly influence outcomes, though systematic changes to key parameters have the potential to shift pathogen invasion thresholds. In summary, we provide one of the first clear experimental demonstrations of pathogen invasion thresholds in a replicated experimental system, and provide evidence that such thresholds may be predictable using independently constructed epidemiological models. PMID:29410876

Noise-Induced Hearing Loss – A Preventable Disease? Results of a 10-Year Longitudinal Study of Workers Exposed to Occupational Noise

PubMed Central

Frederiksen, Thomas W.; Ramlau-Hansen, Cecilia H.; Stokholm, Zara A.; Grynderup, Matias B.; Hansen, Åse M.; Kristiansen, Jesper; Vestergaard, Jesper M.; Bonde, Jens P.; Kolstad, Henrik A.

2017-01-01

Aims: To survey current, Danish industrial noise levels and the use of hearing protection devices (HPD) over a 10-year period and to characterise the association between occupational noise and hearing threshold shift in the same period. Furthermore, the risk of hearing loss among the baseline and the follow-up populations according to first year of occupational noise exposure is evaluated. Materials and Methods: In 2001–2003, we conducted a baseline survey of noise- and hearing-related disorders in 11 industries with suspected high noise levels. In 2009–2010, we were able to follow up on 271 out of the 554 baseline workers (49%). Mean noise levels per industry and self-reported HPD use are described at baseline and follow-up. The association between cumulative occupational noise exposure and hearing threshold shift over the 10-year period was assessed using linear regression, and the risk of hearing loss according to year of first occupational noise exposure was evaluated with logistic regression. Results: Over the 10-year period, mean noise levels declined from 83.9 dB(A) to 82.8 dB(A), and for workers exposed >85 dB(A), the use of HPD increased from 70.1 to 76.1%. We found a weak, statistically insignificant, inverse association between higher ambient cumulative noise exposure and poorer hearing (−0.10 dB hearing threshold shift per dB-year (95% confidence interval (CI): −0.36; 0.16)). The risk of hearing loss seemed to increase with earlier first year of noise exposure, but odds ratios were only statistically significant among baseline participants with first exposure before the 1980s (odds ratio: 1.90, 95% CI: 1.11; 3.22). Conclusions: We observed declining industrial noise levels, increased use of HPD and no significant impact on hearing thresholds from current ambient industrial noise levels, which indicated a successful implementation of Danish hearing conservation programs. PMID:29192620

Noise-Induced Hearing Loss - A Preventable Disease? Results of a 10-Year Longitudinal Study of Workers Exposed to Occupational Noise.

PubMed

Frederiksen, Thomas W; Ramlau-Hansen, Cecilia H; Stokholm, Zara A; Grynderup, Matias B; Hansen, Åse M; Kristiansen, Jesper; Vestergaard, Jesper M; Bonde, Jens P; Kolstad, Henrik A

2017-01-01

To survey current, Danish industrial noise levels and the use of hearing protection devices (HPD) over a 10-year period and to characterise the association between occupational noise and hearing threshold shift in the same period. Furthermore, the risk of hearing loss among the baseline and the follow-up populations according to first year of occupational noise exposure is evaluated. In 2001-2003, we conducted a baseline survey of noise- and hearing-related disorders in 11 industries with suspected high noise levels. In 2009-2010, we were able to follow up on 271 out of the 554 baseline workers (49%). Mean noise levels per industry and self-reported HPD use are described at baseline and follow-up. The association between cumulative occupational noise exposure and hearing threshold shift over the 10-year period was assessed using linear regression, and the risk of hearing loss according to year of first occupational noise exposure was evaluated with logistic regression. Over the 10-year period, mean noise levels declined from 83.9 dB(A) to 82.8 dB(A), and for workers exposed >85 dB(A), the use of HPD increased from 70.1 to 76.1%. We found a weak, statistically insignificant, inverse association between higher ambient cumulative noise exposure and poorer hearing (-0.10 dB hearing threshold shift per dB-year (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.36; 0.16)). The risk of hearing loss seemed to increase with earlier first year of noise exposure, but odds ratios were only statistically significant among baseline participants with first exposure before the 1980s (odds ratio: 1.90, 95% CI: 1.11; 3.22). We observed declining industrial noise levels, increased use of HPD and no significant impact on hearing thresholds from current ambient industrial noise levels, which indicated a successful implementation of Danish hearing conservation programs.

Absorption spectrum of a two-level atom in a bad cavity with injected squeezed vacuum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Peng; Swain, S.

1996-02-01

We study the absorption spectrum of a coherently driven two-level atom interacting with a resonant cavity mode which is coupled to a broadband squeezed vacuum through its input-output mirror in the bad cavity limit. We study the modification of the two-photon correlation strength of the injected squeezed vacuum inside the cavity, and show that the equations describing probe absorption in the cavity environment are formally identical to these in free space, but with modified parameters describing the squeezed vacuum. The two photon correlations induced by the squeezed vacuum are always weaker than in free space. We pay particular attention to the spectral behaviour at line centre in the region of intermediate trength driving intensities, where anomalous spectral features such as hole-burning and dispersive profiles are displayed. These unusual spectral features are very sensitive to the squeezing phase and the Rabi frequency of the driving field. We also derive the threshold value of the Rabi frequency which gives rise to the transparency of the probe beam at the driving frequency. When the Rabi frequency is less than the threshold value, the probe beam is absorbed, whilst the probe beam is amplified (without population inversion under certain conditions) when the Rabi frequency is larger than this threshold. The anomalous spectral features all take place in the vicinity of the critical point dividing the different dynamical regimes, probe absorption and amplification, of the atomic radiation. The physical origin of the strong amplification without population inversion, and the feasibility of observing it, are discussed.

Optimal control of population recovery--the role of economic restoration threshold.

PubMed

Lampert, Adam; Hastings, Alan

2014-01-01

A variety of ecological systems around the world have been damaged in recent years, either by natural factors such as invasive species, storms and global change or by direct human activities such as overfishing and water pollution. Restoration of these systems to provide ecosystem services entails significant economic benefits. Thus, choosing how and when to restore in an optimal fashion is important, but has not been well studied. Here we examine a general model where population growth can be induced or accelerated by investing in active restoration. We show that the most cost-effective method to restore an ecosystem dictates investment until the population approaches an 'economic restoration threshold', a density above which the ecosystem should be left to recover naturally. Therefore, determining this threshold is a key general approach for guiding efficient restoration management, and we demonstrate how to calculate this threshold for both deterministic and stochastic ecosystems. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Dynamic complexities in a pest control model with birth pulse and harvesting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, A.; Gakkhar, S.

2016-04-01

In this paper, an impulsive model is discussed for an integrated pest management approach comprising of chemical and mechanical controls. The pesticides and harvesting are used to control the stage-structured pest population. The mature pest give birth to immature pest in pulses at regular intervals. The pest is controlled by spraying chemical pesticides affecting immature as well as mature pest. The harvesting of both immature and mature pest further reduce the pest population. The discrete dynamical system obtained from stroboscopic map is analyzed. The threshold conditions for stability of pest-free state as well as non-trivial period-1 solution is obtained. The effect of pesticide spray timing and harvesting on immature as well as mature pest are shown. Finally, by numerical simulation with MATLAB, the dynamical behaviors of the model is found to be complex. Above the threshold level there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations leading to chaotic dynamics. Route to chaos is found to be period-doubling. Period halving bifurcations are also observed.

Larval connectivity across temperature gradients and its potential effect on heat tolerance in coral populations.

PubMed

Kleypas, Joan A; Thompson, Diane M; Castruccio, Frederic S; Curchitser, Enrique N; Pinsky, Malin; Watson, James R

2016-11-01

Coral reefs are increasingly exposed to elevated temperatures that can cause coral bleaching and high levels of mortality of corals and associated organisms. The temperature threshold for coral bleaching depends on the acclimation and adaptation of corals to the local maximum temperature regime. However, because of larval dispersal, coral populations can receive larvae from corals that are adapted to very different temperature regimes. We combine an offline particle tracking routine with output from a high-resolution physical oceanographic model to investigate whether connectivity of coral larvae between reefs of different thermal regimes could alter the thermal stress threshold of corals. Our results suggest that larval transport between reefs of widely varying temperatures is likely in the Coral Triangle and that accounting for this connectivity may be important in bleaching predictions. This has important implications in conservation planning, because connectivity may allow some reefs to have an inherited heat tolerance that is higher or lower than predicted based on local conditions alone. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessing trade-offs to inform ecosystem-based fisheries management of forage fish

PubMed Central

Shelton, Andrew Olaf; Samhouri, Jameal F.; Stier, Adrian C.; Levin, Philip S.

2014-01-01

Twenty-first century conservation is centered on negotiating trade-offs between the diverse needs of people and the needs of the other species constituting coupled human-natural ecosystems. Marine forage fishes, such as sardines, anchovies, and herring, are a nexus for such trade-offs because they are both central nodes in marine food webs and targeted by fisheries. An important example is Pacific herring, Clupea pallisii in the Northeast Pacific. Herring populations are subject to two distinct fisheries: one that harvests adults and one that harvests spawned eggs. We develop stochastic, age-structured models to assess the interaction between fisheries, herring populations, and the persistence of predators reliant on herring populations. We show that egg- and adult-fishing have asymmetric effects on herring population dynamics - herring stocks can withstand higher levels of egg harvest before becoming depleted. Second, ecosystem thresholds proposed to ensure the persistence of herring predators do not necessarily pose more stringent constraints on fisheries than conventional, fishery driven harvest guidelines. Our approach provides a general template to evaluate ecosystem trade-offs between stage-specific harvest practices in relation to environmental variability, the risk of fishery closures, and the risk of exceeding ecosystem thresholds intended to ensure conservation goals are met. PMID:25407879

Five challenges for spatial epidemic models

PubMed Central

Riley, Steven; Eames, Ken; Isham, Valerie; Mollison, Denis; Trapman, Pieter

2015-01-01

Infectious disease incidence data are increasingly available at the level of the individual and include high-resolution spatial components. Therefore, we are now better able to challenge models that explicitly represent space. Here, we consider five topics within spatial disease dynamics: the construction of network models; characterising threshold behaviour; modelling long-distance interactions; the appropriate scale for interventions; and the representation of population heterogeneity. PMID:25843387

Fine-touch pressure thresholds in the adult penis.

PubMed

Sorrells, Morris L; Snyder, James L; Reiss, Mark D; Eden, Christopher; Milos, Marilyn F; Wilcox, Norma; Van Howe, Robert S

2007-04-01

To map the fine-touch pressure thresholds of the adult penis in circumcised and uncircumcised men, and to compare the two populations. Adult male volunteers with no history of penile pathology or diabetes were evaluated with a Semmes-Weinstein monofilament touch-test to map the fine-touch pressure thresholds of the penis. Circumcised and uncircumcised men were compared using mixed models for repeated data, controlling for age, type of underwear worn, time since last ejaculation, ethnicity, country of birth, and level of education. The glans of the uncircumcised men had significantly lower mean (sem) pressure thresholds than that of the circumcised men, at 0.161 (0.078) g (P = 0.040) when controlled for age, location of measurement, type of underwear worn, and ethnicity. There were significant differences in pressure thresholds by location on the penis (P < 0.001). The most sensitive location on the circumcised penis was the circumcision scar on the ventral surface. Five locations on the uncircumcised penis that are routinely removed at circumcision had lower pressure thresholds than the ventral scar of the circumcised penis. The glans of the circumcised penis is less sensitive to fine touch than the glans of the uncircumcised penis. The transitional region from the external to the internal prepuce is the most sensitive region of the uncircumcised penis and more sensitive than the most sensitive region of the circumcised penis. Circumcision ablates the most sensitive parts of the penis.

Pressure pain threshold and β-endorphins plasma level are higher in lean polycystic ovary syndrome women.

PubMed

Kiałka, Marta; Milewicz, Tomasz; Mrozińska, Sandra; Rogatko, Iwona; Sztefko, Krystyna; Majewska, Renata

2017-12-01

Despite some evidence that indicates that the evolution of polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is related to the activity of the endogenous opioid system, and that concentration of plasma β-endorphin levels can increase pain threshold, there are no studies which evaluate pressure pain threshold in the PCOS women population. In 48 lean women with PCOS and 38 lean women without this disorder plasma β-endorphins and PPT were measured. The β-endorphins level was higher in the PCOS group compared to the controls (15.28±2.49 pg/mL vs. 6.33±1.71 pg/mL, P<0.001). In PCOS group PPTs measured on deltoid and trapezius muscles were higher compared to the controls (9.33±1.3 kg/cm² vs. 5.19±0.57 kg/cm², P<0.001; 8.23±1.04 kg/cm² vs. 4.79±0.55 kg/cm², P<0.001). The β-endorphin levels positively correlated with PPTs in PCOS group. Increase in β-endorphin level of 1 pg/mL was associated with increase of PPT value on deltoid muscle of 0.23 kg/cm² (R=0.632, P=0.011) and of 0.18 kg/cm² on trapezius muscle (R=0.588, P=0.037). There were no correlations between testosterone level and PPT in PCOS group. β-endorphin serum level as well as PPT are higher in lean PCOS group than in controls. We found correlations between β-endorphin levels and PPT in the PCOS group. It may suggest the role of endogenous opioids in the pathogenesis of PCOS and also that the increases in circulating plasma β-endorphins concentration can increases PPT in this group.

Population collapse to extinction: the catastrophic combination of parasitism and Allee effect.

PubMed

Hilker, Frank M

2010-01-01

Infectious diseases are responsible for the extinction of a number of species. In conventional epidemic models, the transition from endemic population persistence to extirpation takes place gradually. However, if host demographics exhibits a strong Allee effect (AE) (population decline at low densities), extinction can occur abruptly in a catastrophic population crash. This might explain why species suddenly disappear even when they used to persist at high endemic population levels. Mathematically, the tipping point towards population collapse is associated with a saddle-node bifurcation. The underlying mechanism is the simultaneous population size depression and the increase of the extinction threshold due to parasite pathogenicity and Allee effect. Since highly pathogenic parasites cause their own extinction but not that of their host, there can be another saddle-node bifurcation with the re-emergence of two endemic equilibria. The implications for control interventions are discussed, suggesting that effective management may be possible for ℛ(0)≫1.

Population sensitivities of animals to chronic ionizing radiation-model predictions from mice to elephant.

PubMed

Sazykina, Tatiana G

2018-02-01

Model predictions of population response to chronic ionizing radiation (endpoint 'morbidity') were made for 11 species of warm-blooded animals, differing in body mass and lifespan - from mice to elephant. Predictions were made also for 3 bird species (duck, pigeon, and house sparrow). Calculations were based on analytical solutions of the mathematical model, simulating a population response to low-LET ionizing radiation in an ecosystem with a limiting resource (Sazykina, Kryshev, 2016). Model parameters for different species were taken from biological and radioecological databases; allometric relationships were employed for estimating some parameter values. As a threshold of decreased health status in exposed populations ('health threshold'), a 10% reduction in self-repairing capacity of organisms was suggested, associated with a decline in ability to sustain environmental stresses. Results of the modeling demonstrate a general increase of population vulnerability to ionizing radiation in animal species of larger size and longevity. Populations of small widespread species (mice, house sparrow; body mass 20-50 g), which are characterized by intensive metabolism and short lifespan, have calculated 'health thresholds' at dose rates about 6.5-7.5 mGy day -1 . Widespread animals with body mass 200-500 g (rat, common pigeon) - demonstrate 'health threshold' values at 4-5 mGy day -1 . For populations of animals with body mass 2-5 kg (rabbit, fox, raccoon), the indicators of 10% health decrease are in the range 2-3.4 mGy day -1 . For animals with body mass 40-100 kg (wolf, sheep, wild boar), thresholds are within 0.5-0.8 mGy day -1 ; for herbivorous animals with body mass 200-300 kg (deer, horse) - 0.5-0.6 mGy day -1 . The lowest health threshold was estimated for elephant (body mass around 5000 kg) - 0.1 mGy day -1 . According to the model results, the differences in population sensitivities of warm-blooded animal species to ionizing radiation are generally depended on the metabolic rate and longevity of organisms, also on individual radiosensitivity of biological tissues. The results of 'health threshold' calculations are formulated as a graded scale of wildlife sensitivities to chronic radiation stress, ranging from potentially vulnerable to more resistant species. Further studies are needed to expand the scale of population sensitivities to radiation, including other groups of wildlife - cold-blooded species, invertebrates, and plants. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Occurrence of alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) populations along roadsides in southern Manitoba, Canada and their potential role in intraspecific gene flow.

PubMed

Bagavathiannan, Muthukumar V; Gulden, Robert H; Van Acker, Rene C

2011-04-01

Alfalfa is a highly outcrossing perennial species that can be noticed in roadsides as feral populations. There remains little information available on the extent of feral alfalfa populations in western Canadian prairies and their role in gene flow. The main objectives of this study were (a) to document the occurrence of feral alfalfa populations, and (b) to estimate the levels of outcrossing facilitated by feral populations. A roadside survey confirmed widespread occurrence of feral alfalfa populations, particularly in alfalfa growing regions. The feral populations were dynamic and their frequency ranged from 0.2 to 1.7 populations km(-1). In many cases, the nearest feral alfalfa population from alfalfa production field was located within a distance sufficient for outcrossing in alfalfa. The gene flow study confirmed that genes can move back and forth between feral and cultivated alfalfa populations. In this study, the estimated outcrossing levels were 62% (seed fields to feral), 78% (feral to seed fields), 82% (hay fields to feral) and 85% (feral to feral). Overall, the results show that feral alfalfa plants are prevalent in alfalfa producing regions in western Canada and they can serve as bridges for gene flow at landscape level. Management of feral populations should be considered, if gene flow is a concern. Emphasis on preventing seed spill/escapes and intentional roadside planting of alfalfa cultivars will be particularly helpful. Further, realistic and pragmatic threshold levels should be established for markets sensitive to the presence of GE traits.

High prices for rare species can drive large populations extinct: the anthropogenic Allee effect revisited.

PubMed

Holden, Matthew H; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2017-09-21

Consumer demand for plant and animal products threatens many populations with extinction. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) proposes that such extinctions can be caused by prices for wildlife products increasing with species rarity. This price-rarity relationship creates financial incentives to extract the last remaining individuals of a population, despite higher search and harvest costs. The AAE has become a standard approach for conceptualizing the threat of economic markets on endangered species. Despite its potential importance for conservation, AAE theory is based on a simple graphical model with limited analysis of possible population trajectories. By specifying a general class of functions for price-rarity relationships, we show that the classic theory can understate the risk of species extinction. AAE theory proposes that only populations below a critical Allee threshold will go extinct due to increasing price-rarity relationships. Our analysis shows that this threshold can be much higher than the original theory suggests, depending on initial harvest effort. More alarmingly, even species with population sizes above this Allee threshold, for which AAE predicts persistence, can be destined to extinction. Introducing even a minimum price for harvested individuals, close to zero, can cause large populations to cross the classic anthropogenic Allee threshold on a trajectory towards extinction. These results suggest that traditional AAE theory may give a false sense of security when managing large harvested populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Time Poverty Thresholds and Rates for the US Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kalenkoski, Charlene M.; Hamrick, Karen S.; Andrews, Margaret

2011-01-01

Time constraints, like money constraints, affect Americans' well-being. This paper defines what it means to be time poor based on the concepts of necessary and committed time and presents time poverty thresholds and rates for the US population and certain subgroups. Multivariate regression techniques are used to identify the key variables…

Updated ultrasound criteria for polycystic ovary syndrome: reliable thresholds for elevated follicle population and ovarian volume.

PubMed

Lujan, Marla E; Jarrett, Brittany Y; Brooks, Eric D; Reines, Jonathan K; Peppin, Andrew K; Muhn, Narry; Haider, Ehsan; Pierson, Roger A; Chizen, Donna R

2013-05-01

Do the ultrasonographic criteria for polycystic ovaries supported by the 2003 Rotterdam consensus adequately discriminate between the normal and polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) condition in light of recent advancements in imaging technology and reliable methods for estimating follicle populations in PCOS? Using newer ultrasound technology and a reliable grid system approach to count follicles, we concluded that a substantially higher threshold of follicle counts throughout the entire ovary (FNPO)-26 versus 12 follicles-is required to distinguish among women with PCOS and healthy women from the general population. The Rotterdam consensus defined the polycystic ovary as having 12 or more follicles, measuring between 2 and 9 mm (FNPO), and/or an ovarian volume (OV) >10 cm(3). Since their initial proposal in 2003, a heightened prevalence of polycystic ovaries has been described in healthy women with regular menstrual cycles, which has questioned the accuracy of these criteria and marginalized the specificity of polycystic ovaries as a diagnostic criterion for PCOS. A diagnostic test study was performed using cross-sectional data, collected from 2006 to 2011, from 168 women prospectively evaluated by transvaginal ultrasonography. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were performed to determine the appropriate diagnostic thresholds for: (i) FNPO, (ii) follicle counts in a single cross section (FNPS) and (iii) OV. The levels of intra- and inter-observer reliability when five observers used the proposed criteria on 100 ultrasound cases were also determined. Ninety-eight women diagnosed with PCOS by the National Institutes of Health criteria as having both oligo-amenorrhea and hyperandrogenism and 70 healthy female volunteers recruited from the general population. Participants were evaluated by transvaginal ultrasonography at the Royal University Hospital within the Department of Obstetrics, Gynecology and Reproductive Sciences, University of Saskatchewan (Saskatoon, SK, Canada) and in the Division of Nutritional Sciences' Human Metabolic Research Unit, Cornell University (Ithaca, NY, USA). Diagnostic potential for PCOS was highest for FNPO (0.969), followed by FNPS (0.880) and OV (0.873) as judged by the area under the ROC curve. An FNPO threshold of 26 follicles had the best compromise between sensitivity (85%) and specificity (94%) when discriminating between controls and PCOS. Similarly, an FNPS threshold of nine follicles had a 69% sensitivity and 90% specificity, and an OV of 10 cm(3) had a 81% sensitivity and 84% specificity. Levels of intra-observer reliability were 0.81, 0.80 and 0.86 when assessing FNPO, FNPS and OV, respectively. Inter-observer reliability was 0.71, 0.72 and 0.82, respectively. Thresholds proposed by this study should be limited to use in women aged between 18 and 35 years. Polycystic ovarian morphology has excellent diagnostic potential for detecting PCOS. FNPO have better diagnostic potential and yield greater diagnostic confidence compared with assessments of FNPS or OV. Whenever possible, images throughout the entire ovary should be collected for the ultrasonographic evaluation of PCOS. This study was funded by Cornell University and fellowship awards from the Saskatchewan Health Research Foundation and Canadian Institutes of Health Research. The authors have no conflict of interests to disclose.

The influence of music and stress on musicians' hearing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kähäri, Kim; Zachau, Gunilla; Eklöf, Mats; Möller, Claes

2004-10-01

Hearing and hearing disorders among classical and rock/jazz musicians was investigated. Pure tone audiometry was done in 140 classical and 139 rock/jazz musicians. The rock/jazz musicians answered a questionnaire concerning hearing disorders and psychosocial exposure. All results were compared to age appropriate reference materials. Hearing thresholds showed a notch configuration in both classical and rock/jazz musicians indicating the inclusion of high sound levels but an overall well-preserved hearing thresholds. Female musicians had significantly better hearing thresholds in the high-frequency area than males. Rock/jazz musicians showed slight worse hearing thresholds as compared to classical musicians. When assessing hearing disorders, a large number of rock/jazz musicians suffered from different hearing disorders (74%). Hearing loss, tinnitus and hyperacusis were the most common disorders and were significantly more frequent in comparison with different reference populations. Among classical musicians, no extended negative progress of the pure tone hearing threshold values was found in spite of the continued 16 years of musical noise exposure. In rock/jazz musicians, there was no relationships between psychosocial factors at work and hearing disorders. The rock/jazz musicians reported low stress and high degree of energy. On the average, the rock/jazz musicians reported higher control, lower stress and higher energy than a reference material of white-collar workers.

Sustainable thresholds for cooperative epidemiological models.

PubMed

Barrios, Edwin; Gajardo, Pedro; Vasilieva, Olga

2018-05-22

In this paper, we introduce a method for computing sustainable thresholds for controlled cooperative models described by a system of ordinary differential equations, a property shared by a wide class of compartmental models in epidemiology. The set of sustainable thresholds refers to constraints (e.g., maximal "allowable" number of human infections; maximal "affordable" budget for disease prevention, diagnosis and treatments; etc.), parameterized by thresholds, that can be sustained by applying an admissible control strategy starting at the given initial state and lasting the whole period of the control intervention. This set, determined by the initial state of the dynamical system, virtually provides useful information for more efficient (or cost-effective) decision-making by exhibiting the trade-offs between different types of constraints and allowing the user to assess future outcomes of control measures on transient behavior of the dynamical system. In order to accentuate the originality of our approach and to reveal its potential significance in real-life applications, we present an example relying on the 2013 dengue outbreak in Cali, Colombia, where we compute the set of sustainable thresholds (in terms of the maximal "affordable" budget and the maximal "allowable" levels of active infections among human and vector populations) that could be sustained during the epidemic outbreak. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Resilience and risk: a demographic model to inform conservation planning for polar bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Regehr, Eric V.; Wilson, Ryan R.; Rode, Karyn D.; Runge, Michael C.

2015-01-01

Our modeling results suggest that harvest of polar bears is unlikely to accelerate population declines that result from declining carrying capacity caused by sea-ice loss, provided that several conditions are met: (1) the sustainable harvest rate reflects the population’s intrinsic growth rate, and the corresponding harvest level is obtained by applying this rate to an estimate of population size; (2) the sustainable harvest rate reflects the quality of population data (e.g., lower harvest when data are poor); and (3) the level of human-caused removals can be adjusted. Finally, our results suggest that stopgap measures (e.g., further reduction or cessation of harvest when the population size is less than a critical threshold) may be necessary to minimize the incremental risk associated with harvest, if environmental conditions are deteriorating rapidly. We suggest that the demographic model and approaches presented here can serve as a template for conservation planning for polar bears and other species facing similar challenges.

Health benefit from decreasing exposure to heavy metals and metalloid after strict pollution control measures near a typical river basin area in China.

PubMed

Cao, Suzhen; Duan, Xiaoli; Ma, Yingqun; Zhao, Xiuge; Qin, Yanwen; Liu, Yan; Li, Sai; Zheng, Binghui; Wei, Fusheng

2017-10-01

The metal(loid) pollution still is a great concern due to the effects from urbanization and industrialization. While, the health risks from the toxic metal(loid)s could decrease if strict pollution control measures were adopted. However, few studies to date investigate the health risks of heavy metal(loid)s in a systematic river basin for the dependent residents, after taking pollution control measures. Thus, the contents of metal(loid)s (Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd, Mn, As) in surface water along a typical river basin were investigated in this study, and the potential non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic health risks posed to the residents were assessed. Although the soluble contents of Cu, Pb, Zn and Cd exceeded the respective thresholds in two sites located downstream the mine area, they were greatly decreased in comparison with previous contamination levels, and the soluble concentrations of all the metal(loid)s were within the relevant thresholds in the sites far away from the mining area. Moreover, the closer to the mining area, the higher the pollution levels of metal(loid)s. The total hazard index for non-carcinogenic risks of metal(loid)s were basically lower than the threshold (1) for the local population. Whereas, although the content of metal(loid)s were low (such as As), they could pose relative higher non-carcinogenic health risks. The result illustrated that pollution levels, toxicity of the contaminants and exposure behavior patterns all could contribute to the potential detrimental health risks. Additionally, the non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks from ingestion exposure were ∼2-∼4 orders of magnitude higher than those from dermal contact. The total carcinogenic risks were basically lower than the maximum tolerable levels (1.0 × 10 -4 ), indicating carcinogenic risks from most areas of the river could also be accepted. Among different population groups, heavy metal(loid)s posed relative higher non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks to the children in 0-5 years old. Fortunately, the surface water in most area of this basin is safe in usage for the local population and the health risks were basically acceptable in case exposed to the target metal(loid)s, after the river basin was in the charge of strict pollution control measures. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The anaerobic threshold: over-valued or under-utilized? A novel concept to enhance lipid optimization!

PubMed

Connolly, Declan A J

2012-09-01

The purpose of this article is to assess the value of the anaerobic threshold for use in clinical populations with the intent to improve exercise adaptations and outcomes. The anaerobic threshold is generally poorly understood, improperly used, and poorly measured. It is rarely used in clinical settings and often reserved for athletic performance testing. Increased exercise participation within both clinical and other less healthy populations has increased our attention to optimizing exercise outcomes. Of particular interest is the optimization of lipid metabolism during exercise in order to improve numerous conditions such as blood lipid profile, insulin sensitivity and secretion, and weight loss. Numerous authors report on the benefits of appropriate exercise intensity in optimizing outcomes even though regulation of intensity has proved difficult for many. Despite limited use, selected exercise physiology markers have considerable merit in exercise-intensity regulation. The anaerobic threshold, and other markers such as heart rate, may well provide a simple and valuable mechanism for regulating exercising intensity. The use of the anaerobic threshold and accurate target heart rate to regulate exercise intensity is a valuable approach that is under-utilized across populations. The measurement of the anaerobic threshold can be simplified to allow clients to use nonlaboratory measures, for example heart rate, in order to self-regulate exercise intensity and improve outcomes.

Assessment of hearing threshold in adults with hearing loss using an automated system of cortical auditory evoked potential detection.

PubMed

Durante, Alessandra Spada; Wieselberg, Margarita Bernal; Roque, Nayara; Carvalho, Sheila; Pucci, Beatriz; Gudayol, Nicolly; de Almeida, Kátia

The use of hearing aids by individuals with hearing loss brings a better quality of life. Access to and benefit from these devices may be compromised in patients who present difficulties or limitations in traditional behavioral audiological evaluation, such as newborns and small children, individuals with auditory neuropathy spectrum, autism, and intellectual deficits, and in adults and the elderly with dementia. These populations (or individuals) are unable to undergo a behavioral assessment, and generate a growing demand for objective methods to assess hearing. Cortical auditory evoked potentials have been used for decades to estimate hearing thresholds. Current technological advances have lead to the development of equipment that allows their clinical use, with features that enable greater accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity, and the possibility of automated detection, analysis, and recording of cortical responses. To determine and correlate behavioral auditory thresholds with cortical auditory thresholds obtained from an automated response analysis technique. The study included 52 adults, divided into two groups: 21 adults with moderate to severe hearing loss (study group); and 31 adults with normal hearing (control group). An automated system of detection, analysis, and recording of cortical responses (HEARLab ® ) was used to record the behavioral and cortical thresholds. The subjects remained awake in an acoustically treated environment. Altogether, 150 tone bursts at 500, 1000, 2000, and 4000Hz were presented through insert earphones in descending-ascending intensity. The lowest level at which the subject detected the sound stimulus was defined as the behavioral (hearing) threshold (BT). The lowest level at which a cortical response was observed was defined as the cortical electrophysiological threshold. These two responses were correlated using linear regression. The cortical electrophysiological threshold was, on average, 7.8dB higher than the behavioral for the group with hearing loss and, on average, 14.5dB higher for the group without hearing loss for all studied frequencies. The cortical electrophysiological thresholds obtained with the use of an automated response detection system were highly correlated with behavioral thresholds in the group of individuals with hearing loss. Copyright © 2016 Associação Brasileira de Otorrinolaringologia e Cirurgia Cérvico-Facial. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

Patterns of threshold evolution in polyphenic insects under different developmental models.

PubMed

Tomkins, Joseph L; Moczek, Armin P

2009-02-01

Two hypotheses address the evolution of polyphenic traits in insects. Under the developmental reprogramming model, individuals exceeding a threshold follow a different developmental pathway from individuals below the threshold. This decoupling is thought to free selection to independently hone alternative morphologies, increasing phenotypic plasticity and morphological diversity. Under the alternative model, extreme positive allometry explains the existence of alternative phenotypes and divergent phenotypes are developmentally coupled by a continuous reaction norm, such that selection on either morph acts on both. We test the hypothesis that continuous reaction norm polyphenisms, evolve through changes in the allometric parameters of even the smallest males with minimal trait expression, whereas threshold polyphenisms evolve independent of the allometric parameters of individuals below the threshold. We compare two polyphenic species; the dung beetle Onthophagus taurus, whose allometry has been modeled both as a threshold polyphenism and a continuous reaction norm and the earwig Forficula auricularia, whose allometry is best modeled with a discontinuous threshold. We find that across populations of both species, variation in forceps or horn allometry in minor males are correlated to the population's threshold. These findings suggest that regardless of developmental mode, alternative morphs do not evolve independently of one another.

Genetic variation in threshold reaction norms for alternative reproductive tactics in male Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar.

PubMed

Piché, Jacinthe; Hutchings, Jeffrey A; Blanchard, Wade

2008-07-07

Alternative reproductive tactics may be a product of adaptive phenotypic plasticity, such that discontinuous variation in life history depends on both the genotype and the environment. Phenotypes that fall below a genetically determined threshold adopt one tactic, while those exceeding the threshold adopt the alternative tactic. We report evidence of genetic variability in maturation thresholds for male Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) that mature either as large (more than 1 kg) anadromous males or as small (10-150 g) parr. Using a common-garden experimental protocol, we find that the growth rate at which the sneaker parr phenotype is expressed differs among pure- and mixed-population crosses. Maturation thresholds of hybrids were intermediate to those of pure crosses, consistent with the hypothesis that the life-history switch points are heritable. Our work provides evidence, for a vertebrate, that thresholds for alternative reproductive tactics differ genetically among populations and can be modelled as discontinuous reaction norms for age and size at maturity.

Growth dynamics and the evolution of cooperation in microbial populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremer, Jonas; Melbinger, Anna; Frey, Erwin

2012-02-01

Microbes providing public goods are widespread in nature despite running the risk of being exploited by free-riders. However, the precise ecological factors supporting cooperation are still puzzling. Following recent experiments, we consider the role of population growth and the repetitive fragmentation of populations into new colonies mimicking simple microbial life-cycles. Individual-based modeling reveals that demographic fluctuations, which lead to a large variance in the composition of colonies, promote cooperation. Biased by population dynamics these fluctuations result in two qualitatively distinct regimes of robust cooperation under repetitive fragmentation into groups. First, if the level of cooperation exceeds a threshold, cooperators will take over the whole population. Second, cooperators can also emerge from a single mutant leading to a robust coexistence between cooperators and free-riders. We find frequency and size of population bottlenecks, and growth dynamics to be the major ecological factors determining the regimes and thereby the evolutionary pathway towards cooperation.

Identification of a barrier height threshold where brook trout population genetic diversity, differentiation, and relatedness are affected

Treesearch

Anne Timm; Eric Hallerman; Andy Dolloff; Mark Hudy; Randall Kolka

2016-01-01

The overall goal of the study was to evaluate effects of landscape features, barriers, on Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis population genetics and to identify a potential barrier height threshold where genetic diversity was reduced upstream of the barrier and differentiation and relatedness increase. We screened variation at eight...

Haplotype Analysis of the Melanopsin Gene in Seasonal Affective Disorder and Controls

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-06-19

Cole, P. A. (2002). Serotonin n-acetyltransferase: Mechanism and inhibition. Current Medicinal Chemistry , 9(12), 1187-1199. 152 APPENDIX A STRUCTURED ...such that low light levels fall below this threshold during winter in individuals with SAD. The present study investigated the haplotype structure of...Association Studies 51 Advantages of Population-Based Case-Control Samples 52 Haplotype Structure 53 Linkage Disequilibrium: A Measure of Correlation Between

A New Infrared Desert Dust Index over French Guyana Rain forest: First results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molinie, J.; Barnacin, E.; Henry, J. L.; Gobinddass, M. L.; Panechou-Pulcherie, K.; Feuillard, T.; Nagau, J.

2017-12-01

Recently a NASA researcher showed the role of desert dust contribution for the Amazonian rain forest. In another hand, desert dust impact population health when PM 10 level reached values around and upper the PM 10 threshold of the 50 µg m-3, established by the World Health Organization (WHO). Infrared Desert Dust Index (IDDI) developed by Legrand with Meteosat infrared images, allow the following of desert dust plumes over semi-arid land. In French Guiana the WHO threshold is currently overpass in measurements done by ORA air quality network, in the two main towns located close to the coast. For inland population, it is very difficult to have continuous dust measures due to the low infrastructure supplies. We need to develop a tools in order to follow the crossing of desert dust over the French Guyana rain forest, from the coast to inland villages. Following the IDDI concept and comparing with VIIRS AOT EDR result over the same area, a modified IDDI for Amazonian region (IDDI_A) has been proposed to identify the dusty pixels over the forest. Despite of high cloud presence, a good correlation between AOT EDR and IDDI_A was obtained. The IDDI_A calculation has been applied over French Guiana area for different PM 10 level at Cayenne, a town along the coast.

Diversity Outbred Mice Identify Population-Based Exposure Thresholds and Genetic Factors that Influence Benzene-Induced Genotoxicity

PubMed Central

Gatti, Daniel M.; Morgan, Daniel L.; Kissling, Grace E.; Shockley, Keith R.; Knudsen, Gabriel A.; Shepard, Kim G.; Price, Herman C.; King, Deborah; Witt, Kristine L.; Pedersen, Lars C.; Munger, Steven C.; Svenson, Karen L.; Churchill, Gary A.

2014-01-01

Background Inhalation of benzene at levels below the current exposure limit values leads to hematotoxicity in occupationally exposed workers. Objective We sought to evaluate Diversity Outbred (DO) mice as a tool for exposure threshold assessment and to identify genetic factors that influence benzene-induced genotoxicity. Methods We exposed male DO mice to benzene (0, 1, 10, or 100 ppm; 75 mice/exposure group) via inhalation for 28 days (6 hr/day for 5 days/week). The study was repeated using two independent cohorts of 300 animals each. We measured micronuclei frequency in reticulocytes from peripheral blood and bone marrow and applied benchmark concentration modeling to estimate exposure thresholds. We genotyped the mice and performed linkage analysis. Results We observed a dose-dependent increase in benzene-induced chromosomal damage and estimated a benchmark concentration limit of 0.205 ppm benzene using DO mice. This estimate is an order of magnitude below the value estimated using B6C3F1 mice. We identified a locus on Chr 10 (31.87 Mb) that contained a pair of overexpressed sulfotransferases that were inversely correlated with genotoxicity. Conclusions The genetically diverse DO mice provided a reproducible response to benzene exposure. The DO mice display interindividual variation in toxicity response and, as such, may more accurately reflect the range of response that is observed in human populations. Studies using DO mice can localize genetic associations with high precision. The identification of sulfotransferases as candidate genes suggests that DO mice may provide additional insight into benzene-induced genotoxicity. Citation French JE, Gatti DM, Morgan DL, Kissling GE, Shockley KR, Knudsen GA, Shepard KG, Price HC, King D, Witt KL, Pedersen LC, Munger SC, Svenson KL, Churchill GA. 2015. Diversity Outbred mice identify population-based exposure thresholds and genetic factors that influence benzene-induced genotoxicity. Environ Health Perspect 123:237–245; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408202 PMID:25376053

Sarcopenic Obesity in Adults With Spinal Cord Injury: A Cross-Sectional Study.

PubMed

Pelletier, Chelsea A; Miyatani, Masae; Giangregorio, Lora; Craven, B Catharine

2016-11-01

To describe (1) the frequency and utility of clinically relevant spinal cord injury (SCI)-specific and general population thresholds for obesity and sarcopenic obesity; and (2) the fat and lean soft tissue distributions based on the neurologic level of injury and the American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale. Cross-sectional. Tertiary SCI rehabilitation hospital. Persons (N=136; men, n=100; women, n=36) with chronic (mean ± SD: 15.6±11.3y postinjury) tetraplegia (n=66) or paraplegia (n=70). Not applicable. Body composition was assessed with anthropometrics and whole-body dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Muscle atrophy was quantified using a sarcopenia threshold of appendicular lean mass index (ALMI) (men, ≤7.26kg/m 2 ; women, ≤5.5kg/m 2 ). Obesity was defined by percentage body fat (men, ≥25%; women, ≥35%), visceral adipose tissue (≥130cm 2 ), and SCI-specific obesity thresholds (body mass index [BMI] ≥22kg/m 2 ; waist circumference ≥94cm). Sarcopenic obesity was defined as the presence of both sarcopenia and obesity. Groups were compared based on impairment characteristics using an analysis of covariance. Sarcopenic obesity was prevalent in 41.9% of the sample. ALMI was lower among participants with motor-complete (6.2±1.3kg/m 2 ) versus motor-incomplete (7.5±1.6kg/m 2 ) injuries (P<.01). Whole-body fat was greater among participants with tetraplegia (28.8±11.2kg) versus paraplegia (24.1±8.7kg; P<.05). Compared with general population guidelines (20.6%), SCI-specific BMI thresholds identified all the participants with obesity (77.9%) based on percentage body fat (72.1%). The observed frequency of sarcopenic obesity in this sample of individuals with chronic SCI is very high, and identification of obesity is dissimilar when using SCI-specific versus general population criteria. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Transmission thresholds for dengue in terms of Aedes aegypti pupae per person with discussion of their utility in source reduction efforts.

PubMed

Focks, D A; Brenner, R J; Hayes, J; Daniels, E

2000-01-01

The expense and ineffectiveness of drift-based insecticide aerosols to control dengue epidemics has led to suppression strategies based on eliminating larval breeding sites. With the notable but short-lived exceptions of Cuba and Singapore, these source reduction efforts have met with little documented success; failure has chiefly been attributed to inadequate participation of the communities involved. The present work attempts to estimate transmission thresholds for dengue based on an easily-derived statistic, the standing crop of Aedes aegypti pupae per person in the environment. We have developed these thresholds for use in the assessment of risk of transmission and to provide targets for the actual degree of suppression required to prevent or eliminate transmission in source reduction programs. The notion of thresholds is based on 2 concepts: the mass action principal-the course of an epidemic is dependent on the rate of contact between susceptible hosts and infectious vectors, and threshold theory-the introduction of a few infectious individuals into a community of susceptible individuals will not give rise to an outbreak unless the density of vectors exceeds a certain critical level. We use validated transmission models to estimate thresholds as a function of levels of pre-existing antibody levels in human populations, ambient air temperatures, and size and frequency of viral introduction. Threshold levels were estimated to range between about 0.5 and 1.5 Ae. aegypti pupae per person for ambient air temperatures of 28 degrees C and initial seroprevalences ranging between 0% to 67%. Surprisingly, the size of the viral introduction used in these studies, ranging between 1 and 12 infectious individuals per year, was not seen to significantly influence the magnitude of the threshold. From a control perspective, these results are not particularly encouraging. The ratio of Ae. aegypti pupae to human density has been observed in limited field studies to range between 0.3 and >60 in 25 sites in dengue-endemic or dengue-susceptible areas in the Caribbean, Central America, and Southeast Asia. If, for purposes of illustration, we assume an initial seroprevalence of 33%, the degree of suppression required to essentially eliminate the possibility of summertime transmission in Puerto Rico, Honduras, and Bangkok, Thailand was estimated to range between 10% and 83%; however in Mexico and Trinidad, reductions of >90% would be required. A clearer picture of the actual magnitude of the reductions required to eliminate the threat of transmission is provided by the ratio of the observed standing crop of Ae. aegypti pupae per person and the threshold. For example, in a site in Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, the ratio of observed and threshold was 1.7, meaning roughly that about 7 of every 17 breeding containers would have to be eliminated. For Reynosa, Mexico, with a ratio of approximately 10, 9 of every 10 containers would have to be eliminated. For sites in Trinidad with ratios averaging approximately 25, the elimination of 24 of every 25 would be required. With the exceptions of Cuba and Singapore, no published reports of sustained source reduction efforts have achieved anything near these levels of reductions in breeding containers. Practical advice on the use of thresholds is provided for operational control projects.

Strategy Diversity Stabilizes Mutualism through Investment Cycles, Phase Polymorphism, and Spatial Bubbles

PubMed Central

Boza, Gergely; Kun, Ádám; Scheuring, István; Dieckmann, Ulf

2012-01-01

There is continuing interest in understanding factors that facilitate the evolution and stability of cooperation within and between species. Such interactions will often involve plasticity in investment behavior, in response to the interacting partner's investments. Our aim here is to investigate the evolution and stability of reciprocal investment behavior in interspecific interactions, a key phenomenon strongly supported by experimental observations. In particular, we present a comprehensive analysis of a continuous reciprocal investment game between mutualists, both in well-mixed and spatially structured populations, and we demonstrate a series of novel mechanisms for maintaining interspecific mutualism. We demonstrate that mutualistic partners invariably follow investment cycles, during which mutualism first increases, before both partners eventually reduce their investments to zero, so that these cycles always conclude with full defection. We show that the key mechanism for stabilizing mutualism is phase polymorphism along the investment cycle. Although mutualistic partners perpetually change their strategies, the community-level distribution of investment levels becomes stationary. In spatially structured populations, the maintenance of polymorphism is further facilitated by dynamic mosaic structures, in which mutualistic partners form expanding and collapsing spatial bubbles or clusters. Additionally, we reveal strategy-diversity thresholds, both for well-mixed and spatially structured mutualistic communities, and discuss factors for meeting these thresholds, and thus maintaining mutualism. Our results demonstrate that interspecific mutualism, when considered as plastic investment behavior, can be unstable, and, in agreement with empirical observations, may involve a polymorphism of investment levels, varying both in space and in time. Identifying the mechanisms maintaining such polymorphism, and hence mutualism in natural communities, provides a significant step towards understanding the coevolution and population dynamics of mutualistic interactions. PMID:23166478

Strategy diversity stabilizes mutualism through investment cycles, phase polymorphism, and spatial bubbles.

PubMed

Boza, Gergely; Kun, Adám; Scheuring, István; Dieckmann, Ulf

2012-01-01

There is continuing interest in understanding factors that facilitate the evolution and stability of cooperation within and between species. Such interactions will often involve plasticity in investment behavior, in response to the interacting partner's investments. Our aim here is to investigate the evolution and stability of reciprocal investment behavior in interspecific interactions, a key phenomenon strongly supported by experimental observations. In particular, we present a comprehensive analysis of a continuous reciprocal investment game between mutualists, both in well-mixed and spatially structured populations, and we demonstrate a series of novel mechanisms for maintaining interspecific mutualism. We demonstrate that mutualistic partners invariably follow investment cycles, during which mutualism first increases, before both partners eventually reduce their investments to zero, so that these cycles always conclude with full defection. We show that the key mechanism for stabilizing mutualism is phase polymorphism along the investment cycle. Although mutualistic partners perpetually change their strategies, the community-level distribution of investment levels becomes stationary. In spatially structured populations, the maintenance of polymorphism is further facilitated by dynamic mosaic structures, in which mutualistic partners form expanding and collapsing spatial bubbles or clusters. Additionally, we reveal strategy-diversity thresholds, both for well-mixed and spatially structured mutualistic communities, and discuss factors for meeting these thresholds, and thus maintaining mutualism. Our results demonstrate that interspecific mutualism, when considered as plastic investment behavior, can be unstable, and, in agreement with empirical observations, may involve a polymorphism of investment levels, varying both in space and in time. Identifying the mechanisms maintaining such polymorphism, and hence mutualism in natural communities, provides a significant step towards understanding the coevolution and population dynamics of mutualistic interactions.

Relation of the runaway avalanche threshold to momentum space topology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDevitt, Christopher J.; Guo, Zehua; Tang, Xian-Zhu

2018-02-01

The underlying physics responsible for the formation of an avalanche instability due to the generation of secondary electrons is studied. A careful examination of the momentum space topology of the runaway electron population is carried out with an eye toward identifying how qualitative changes in the momentum space of the runaway electrons is correlated with the avalanche threshold. It is found that the avalanche threshold is tied to the merger of an O and X point in the momentum space of the primary runaway electron population. Such a change of the momentum space topology is shown to be accurately described by a simple analytic model, thus providing a powerful means of determining the avalanche threshold for a range of model assumptions.

Cross-contamination of foods and implications for food allergic patients.

PubMed

Taylor, Steve L; Baumert, Joseph L

2010-07-01

Cross-contamination presents a risk of unknown magnitude for food allergic consumers. Published cases likely represent the tip of a rather large iceberg. Cross-contamination can occur in homes, restaurants, food manufacturing plants, and on farms. The frequency of cross-contamination as the cause of accidental exposures to allergenic foods is unknown. Food allergic individuals can react to ingestion of trace levels of the offending food, although a highly variable range of threshold doses exist among populations of food allergic individuals. The magnitude of the risk posed to food allergic consumers by cross-contamination is characterized by the frequency of exposure to cross-contaminated foods, the dose of exposure, and the individual's threshold dose. The food and food service industry (and food preparers in homes as well) have the responsibility to provide and prepare foods that are safe for food allergic consumers, but quality of life may be improved with the recognition that safe (though very low) thresholds do exist.

Critical Mutation Rate Has an Exponential Dependence on Population Size in Haploid and Diploid Populations

PubMed Central

Aston, Elizabeth; Channon, Alastair; Day, Charles; Knight, Christopher G.

2013-01-01

Understanding the effect of population size on the key parameters of evolution is particularly important for populations nearing extinction. There are evolutionary pressures to evolve sequences that are both fit and robust. At high mutation rates, individuals with greater mutational robustness can outcompete those with higher fitness. This is survival-of-the-flattest, and has been observed in digital organisms, theoretically, in simulated RNA evolution, and in RNA viruses. We introduce an algorithmic method capable of determining the relationship between population size, the critical mutation rate at which individuals with greater robustness to mutation are favoured over individuals with greater fitness, and the error threshold. Verification for this method is provided against analytical models for the error threshold. We show that the critical mutation rate for increasing haploid population sizes can be approximated by an exponential function, with much lower mutation rates tolerated by small populations. This is in contrast to previous studies which identified that critical mutation rate was independent of population size. The algorithm is extended to diploid populations in a system modelled on the biological process of meiosis. The results confirm that the relationship remains exponential, but show that both the critical mutation rate and error threshold are lower for diploids, rather than higher as might have been expected. Analyzing the transition from critical mutation rate to error threshold provides an improved definition of critical mutation rate. Natural populations with their numbers in decline can be expected to lose genetic material in line with the exponential model, accelerating and potentially irreversibly advancing their decline, and this could potentially affect extinction, recovery and population management strategy. The effect of population size is particularly strong in small populations with 100 individuals or less; the exponential model has significant potential in aiding population management to prevent local (and global) extinction events. PMID:24386200

Threshold of long-term survival of a coastal delphinid in anthropogenically degraded environment: Indo-Pacific humpback dolphins in Pearl River Delta.

PubMed

Karczmarski, Leszek; Huang, Shiang-Lin; Chan, Stephen C Y

2017-02-23

Defining demographic and ecological threshold of population persistence can assist in informing conservation management. We undertook such analyses for the Indo-Pacific humpback dolphin (Sousa chinensis) in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region, southeast China. We use adult survival estimates for assessments of population status and annual rate of change. Our estimates indicate that, given a stationary population structure and minimal risk scenario, ~2000 individuals (minimum viable population in carrying capacity, MVP k ) can maintain the population persistence across 40 generations. However, under the current population trend (~2.5% decline/annum), the population is fast approaching its viability threshold and may soon face effects of demographic stochasticity. The population demographic trajectory and the minimum area of critical habitat (MACH) that could prevent stochastic extinction are both highly sensitive to fluctuations in adult survival. For a hypothetical stationary population, MACH should approximate 3000-km 2 . However, this estimate increases four-fold with a 5% increase of adult mortality and exceeds the size of PRD when calculated for the current population status. On the other hand, cumulatively all current MPAs within PRD fail to secure the minimum habitat requirement to accommodate sufficiently viable population size. Our findings indicate that the PRD population is deemed to become extinct unless effective conservation measures can rapidly reverse the current population trend.

Otoacoustic emissions in the general adult population of Nord-Trøndelag, Norway: III. Relationships with pure-tone hearing thresholds.

PubMed

Engdahl, Bo; Tambs, Kristian; Borchgrevink, Hans M; Hoffman, Howard J

2005-01-01

This study aims to describe the association between otoacoustic emissions (OAEs) and pure-tone hearing thresholds (PTTs) in an unscreened adult population (N =6415), to determine the efficiency by which TEOAEs and DPOAEs can identify ears with elevated PTTs, and to investigate whether a combination of DPOAE and TEOAE responses improves this performance. Associations were examined by linear regression analysis and ANOVA. Test performance was assessed by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. The relation between OAEs and PTTs appeared curvilinear with a moderate degree of non-linearity. Combining DPOAEs and TEOAEs improved performance. Test performance depended on the cut-off thresholds defining elevated PTTs with optimal values between 25 and 45 dB HL, depending on frequency and type of OAE measure. The unique constitution of the present large sample, which reflects the general adult population, makes these results applicable to population-based studies and screening programs.

Olfaction and Environment: Tsimane’ of Bolivian Rainforest Have Lower Threshold of Odor Detection Than Industrialized German People

PubMed Central

Sorokowska, Agnieszka; Sorokowski, Piotr; Hummel, Thomas; Huanca, Tomas

2013-01-01

Olfactory sensitivity varies between individuals. However, data regarding cross-cultural and inter-group differences are scarce. We compared the thresholds of odor detection of the traditional society of Tsimane’ (native Amazonians of the Bolivian rainforest; n = 151) and people living in Dresden (Germany; n = 286) using “Sniffin’ Sticks” threshold subtest. Tsimane’ detected n-butanol at significantly lower concentrations than the German subjects. The distribution of thresholds of the Tsimane’ was very specific, with 25% of Tsimane’ obtaining better results in the olfactory test than any member of the German group. These data suggest that differences in olfactory sensitivity seem to be especially salient between industrialized and non-industrialized populations inhabiting different environmental conditions. We hypothesize that the possible sources of such differences are: (i) the impact of pollution which impairs the olfactory abilities of people from industrialized countries; (ii) better training of olfaction because of the higher importance of smell in traditional populations; (iii) environmental pressures shaping olfactory abilities in these populations. PMID:23922693

Olfaction and environment: Tsimane' of Bolivian rainforest have lower threshold of odor detection than industrialized German people.

PubMed

Sorokowska, Agnieszka; Sorokowski, Piotr; Hummel, Thomas; Huanca, Tomas

2013-01-01

Olfactory sensitivity varies between individuals. However, data regarding cross-cultural and inter-group differences are scarce. We compared the thresholds of odor detection of the traditional society of Tsimane' (native Amazonians of the Bolivian rainforest; n = 151) and people living in Dresden (Germany; n = 286) using "Sniffin' Sticks" threshold subtest. Tsimane' detected n-butanol at significantly lower concentrations than the German subjects. The distribution of thresholds of the Tsimane' was very specific, with 25% of Tsimane' obtaining better results in the olfactory test than any member of the German group. These data suggest that differences in olfactory sensitivity seem to be especially salient between industrialized and non-industrialized populations inhabiting different environmental conditions. We hypothesize that the possible sources of such differences are: (i) the impact of pollution which impairs the olfactory abilities of people from industrialized countries; (ii) better training of olfaction because of the higher importance of smell in traditional populations; (iii) environmental pressures shaping olfactory abilities in these populations.

Controlling the misuse of cobalt in horses.

PubMed

Ho, Emmie N M; Chan, George H M; Wan, Terence S M; Curl, Peter; Riggs, Christopher M; Hurley, Michael J; Sykes, David

2015-01-01

Cobalt is a well-established inducer of hypoxia-like responses, which can cause gene modulation at the hypoxia inducible factor pathway to induce erythropoietin transcription. Cobalt salts are orally active, inexpensive, and easily accessible. It is an attractive blood doping agent for enhancing aerobic performance. Indeed, recent intelligence and investigations have confirmed cobalt was being abused in equine sports. In this paper, population surveys of total cobalt in raceday samples were conducted using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS). Urinary threshold of 75 ng/mL and plasma threshold of 2 ng/mL could be proposed for the control of cobalt misuse in raceday or in-competition samples. Results from administration trials with cobalt-containing supplements showed that common supplements could elevate urinary and plasma cobalt levels above the proposed thresholds within 24 h of administration. It would therefore be necessary to ban the use of cobalt-containing supplements on raceday as well as on the day before racing in order to implement and enforce the proposed thresholds. Since the abuse with huge quantities of cobalt salts can be done during training while the use of legitimate cobalt-containing supplements are also allowed, different urinary and plasma cobalt thresholds would be required to control cobalt abuse in non-raceday or out-of-competition samples. This could be achieved by setting the thresholds above the maximum urinary and plasma cobalt concentrations observed or anticipated from the normal use of legitimate cobalt-containing supplements. Urinary threshold of 2000 ng/mL and plasma threshold of 10 ng/mL were thus proposed for the control of cobalt abuse in non-raceday or out-of-competition samples. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Audiometric analyses confirm a cochlear component, disproportional to age, in stapedial otosclerosis.

PubMed

Topsakal, Vedat; Fransen, Erik; Schmerber, Sébastien; Declau, Frank; Yung, Matthew; Gordts, Frans; Van Camp, Guy; Van de Heyning, Paul

2006-09-01

To report the preoperative audiometric profile of surgically confirmed otosclerosis. Retrospective, multicenter study. Four tertiary referral centers. One thousand sixty-four surgically confirmed patients with otosclerosis. Therapeutic ear surgery for hearing improvement. Preoperative audiometric air conduction (AC) and bone conduction (BC) hearing thresholds were obtained retrospectively for 1064 patients with otosclerosis. A cross-sectional multiple linear regression analysis was performed on audiometric data of affected ears. Influences of age and sex were analyzed and age-related typical audiograms were created. Bone conduction thresholds were corrected for Carhart effect and presbyacusis; in addition, we tested to see if separate cochlear otosclerosis component existed. Corrected thresholds were than analyzed separately for progression of cochlear otosclerosis. The study population consisted of 35% men and 65% women (mean age, 44 yr). The mean pure-tone average at 0.5, 1, and 2 kHz was 57 dB hearing level. Multiple linear regression analysis showed significant progression for all measured AC and BC thresholds. The average annual threshold deterioration for AC was 0.45 dB/yr and the annual threshold deterioration for BC was 0.37 dB/yr. The average annual gap expansion was 0.08 dB/year. The corrected BC thresholds for Carhart effect and presbyacusis remained significantly different from zero, but only showed progression at 2 kHz. The preoperative audiological profile of otosclerosis is described. There is a significant sensorineural component in patients with otosclerosis planned for stapedotomy, which is worse than age-related hearing loss by itself. Deterioration rates of AC and BC thresholds have been reported, which can be helpful in clinical practice and might also guide the characterization of allegedly different phenotypes for familial and sporadic otosclerosis.

Geospatial association between adverse birth outcomes and arsenic in groundwater in New Hampshire, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xun Shi,; Ayotte, Joseph; Akikazu Onda,; Stephanie Miller,; Judy Rees,; Diane Gilbert-Diamond,; Onega, Tracy L; Gui, Jiang; Karagas, Margaret R.; Moeschler, John B

2015-01-01

There is increasing evidence of the role of arsenic in the etiology of adverse human reproductive outcomes. Because drinking water can be a major source of arsenic to pregnant women, the effect of arsenic exposure through drinking water on human birth may be revealed by a geospatial association between arsenic concentration in groundwater and birth problems, particularly in a region where private wells substantially account for water supply, like New Hampshire, USA. We calculated town-level rates of preterm birth and term low birth weight (term LBW) for New Hampshire, by using data for 1997–2009 stratified by maternal age. We smoothed the rates by using a locally weighted averaging method to increase the statistical stability. The town-level groundwater arsenic probability values are from three GIS data layers generated by the US Geological Survey: probability of local groundwater arsenic concentration >1 µg/L, probability >5 µg/L, and probability >10 µg/L. We calculated Pearson’s correlation coefficients (r) between the reproductive outcomes (preterm birth and term LBW) and the arsenic probability values, at both state and county levels. For preterm birth, younger mothers (maternal age <20) have a statewider = 0.70 between the rates smoothed with a threshold = 2,000 births and the town mean arsenic level based on the data of probability >10 µg/L; for older mothers, r = 0.19 when the smoothing threshold = 3,500; a majority of county level r values are positive based on the arsenic data of probability >10 µg/L. For term LBW, younger mothers (maternal age <25) have a statewide r = 0.44 between the rates smoothed with a threshold = 3,500 and town minimum arsenic concentration based on the data of probability >1 µg/L; for older mothers, r = 0.14 when the rates are smoothed with a threshold = 1,000 births and also adjusted by town median household income in 1999, and the arsenic values are the town minimum based on probability >10 µg/L. At the county level for younger mothers, positive r values prevail, but for older mothers, it is a mix. For both birth problems, the several most populous counties—with 60–80% of the state’s population and clustering at the southwest corner of the state—are largely consistent in having a positive r across different smoothing thresholds. We found evident spatial associations between the two adverse human reproductive outcomes and groundwater arsenic in New Hampshire, USA. However, the degree of associations and their sensitivity to different representations of arsenic level are variable. Generally, preterm birth has a stronger spatial association with groundwater arsenic than term LBW, suggesting an inconsistency in the impact of arsenic on the two reproductive outcomes. For both outcomes, younger maternal age has stronger spatial associations with groundwater arsenic.

Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea.

PubMed

Klein, Emily S; Hill, Simeon L; Hinke, Jefferson T; Phillips, Tony; Watters, George M

2018-01-01

Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future.

Impacts of rising sea temperature on krill increase risks for predators in the Scotia Sea

PubMed Central

Hill, Simeon L.; Hinke, Jefferson T.; Phillips, Tony; Watters, George M.

2018-01-01

Climate change is a threat to marine ecosystems and the services they provide, and reducing fishing pressure is one option for mitigating the overall consequences for marine biota. We used a minimally realistic ecosystem model to examine how projected effects of ocean warming on the growth of Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, might affect populations of krill and dependent predators (whales, penguins, seals, and fish) in the Scotia Sea. We also investigated the potential to mitigate depletion risk for predators by curtailing krill fishing at different points in the 21st century. The projected effects of ocean warming on krill biomass were strongest in the northern Scotia Sea, with a ≥40% decline in the mass of individual krill. Projections also suggest a 25% chance that krill biomass will fall below an established depletion threshold (75% of its unimpacted level), with consequent risks for some predator populations, especially penguins. Average penguin abundance declined by up to 30% of its unimpacted level, with up to a 50% chance of falling below the depletion threshold. Simulated krill fishing at currently permitted harvest rates further increased risks for depletion, and stopping fishing offset the increased risks associated with ocean warming in our model to some extent. These results varied by location and species group. Risk reductions at smaller spatial scales also differed from those at the regional level, which suggests that some predator populations may be more vulnerable than others to future changes in krill biomass. However, impacts on predators did not always map directly to those for krill. Our findings indicate the importance of identifying vulnerable marine populations and targeting protection measures at appropriate spatial scales, and the potential for spatially-structured management to avoid aggravating risks associated with rising ocean temperatures. This may help balance tradeoffs among marine ecosystem services in an uncertain future. PMID:29385153

Predictors of hearing threshold levels and distortion product otoacoustic emissions among noise exposed young adults.

PubMed

Seixas, N S; Kujawa, S G; Norton, S; Sheppard, L; Neitzel, R; Slee, A

2004-11-01

To examine the relations between noise exposure and other risk factors with hearing function as measured by audiometric thresholds and distortion product otoacoustic emissions. A total of 456 subjects were studied (393 apprentices in construction trades and 63 graduate students). Hearing and peripheral auditory function were quantified using standard, automated threshold audiometry, tympanometry, and distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs). The analysis addressed relations of noise exposure history and other risk factors with hearing threshold levels (HTLs) and DPOAEs at the baseline test for the cohort. The cohort had a mean age of 27 (7) years. The construction apprentices reported more noise exposure than students in both their occupational and non-occupational exposure histories. A strong effect of age and years of work in construction was observed at 4, 6, and 8 kHz for both HTLs and DPOAEs. Each year of construction work reported prior to baseline was associated with a 0.7 dB increase in HTL or 0.2 dB decrease DPOAE amplitude. Overall, there was a very similar pattern of effects between the HTLs and DPOAEs. This analysis shows a relatively good correspondence between the associations of noise exposures and other risk factors with DPOAEs and the associations observed with pure-tone audiometric thresholds in a young adult working population. The results provide further evidence that DPOAEs can be used to assess damage to hearing from a variety of exposures including noise. Clarifying advantages of DPOAEs or HTLs in terms of sensitivity to early manifestations of noise insults, or their utility in predicting future loss in hearing will require longitudinal follow up.

Detection of Celiac Disease and Lymphocytic Enteropathy by Parallel Serology and Histopathology in a Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Walker, Marjorie M.; Murray, Joseph A.; Ronkainen, Jukka; Aro, Pertti; Storskrubb, Tom; D’Amato, Mauro; Lahr, Brian; Talley, Nicholas J.; Agreus, Lars

2010-01-01

Background & Aims Although serological analysis is used in diagnosis of celiac disease, histopathology is considered most reliable. We performed a prospective study to determine the clinical, pathological and serological spectrum of celiac disease in a general population (Kalixanda study). Methods A random sample of an adult general population (n=1000) was analyzed by upper endoscopy, duodenal biopsy, and serological analysis of tissue transglutaminase (tTg) levels; endomysial antibody (EMA) levels were analyzed in samples that were tTg+. The cutoff values for diagnosis of celiac disease were villous atrophy with 40 intraepithelial lymphocytes (IELs)/100 enterocytes (ECs). Results Samples from 33 subjects were tTg+ and 16 were EMA+. Histological analysis identified 7/1000 subjects (0.7%) with celiac disease; all were tTg+ and 6/7 were EMA+. Another 26 subjects were tTg+ (7/26 EMA+). This was addressed by a second quantitative pathology study, (nested case-control design) using a threshold of 25 IELS/100 ECs. In this analysis, all 13 samples that were tTg+ and EMA+ had ≥25 IELs/100ECs. In total, 16 subjects (1.6%) had serological and histological evidence of gluten-sensitive enteropathy. IELs were quantified in duodenal biopsy samples from seronegative individuals (n=500); 19 (3.8%) had >25 IELs and lymphocytic duodenosis (LD). Conclusions Measurement of ≥25 IELs/100 ECs correlated with serological indicators of celiac disease; a higher IEL threshold could miss 50% of cases. Quantification of tTg is a sensitive test for celiac disease; diagnosis can be confirmed by observation of ≥25 IELs/100ECs in duodenal biopsies. Lymphocytic enteropathy (celiac disease and LD) is common in the population (5.4%). PMID:20398668

The threshold of a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fengrong; Zhang, Xinhong

2018-02-01

In this paper, a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect in human population and saturation effect within avian population is investigated. This model describes the transmission of avian influenza among avian population and human population in random environments. For stochastic avian-only system, persistence in the mean and extinction of the infected avian population are studied. For the avian-human influenza epidemic system, sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution are obtained. Furthermore, a threshold of this stochastic model which determines the outcome of the disease is obtained. Finally, numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results.

The Key Events Dose-Response Framework: a cross-disciplinary mode-of-action based approach to examining dose-response and thresholds.

PubMed

Julien, Elizabeth; Boobis, Alan R; Olin, Stephen S

2009-09-01

The ILSI Research Foundation convened a cross-disciplinary working group to examine current approaches for assessing dose-response and identifying safe levels of intake or exposure for four categories of bioactive agents-food allergens, nutrients, pathogenic microorganisms, and environmental chemicals. This effort generated a common analytical framework-the Key Events Dose-Response Framework (KEDRF)-for systematically examining key events that occur between the initial dose of a bioactive agent and the effect of concern. Individual key events are considered with regard to factors that influence the dose-response relationship and factors that underlie variability in that relationship. This approach illuminates the connection between the processes occurring at the level of fundamental biology and the outcomes observed at the individual and population levels. Thus, it promotes an evidence-based approach for using mechanistic data to reduce reliance on default assumptions, to quantify variability, and to better characterize biological thresholds. This paper provides an overview of the KEDRF and introduces a series of four companion papers that illustrate initial application of the approach to a range of bioactive agents.

Motor unit recruitment strategies and muscle properties determine the influence of synaptic noise on force steadiness

PubMed Central

Dideriksen, Jakob L.; Negro, Francesco; Enoka, Roger M.

2012-01-01

Motoneurons receive synaptic inputs from tens of thousands of connections that cause membrane potential to fluctuate continuously (synaptic noise), which introduces variability in discharge times of action potentials. We hypothesized that the influence of synaptic noise on force steadiness during voluntary contractions is limited to low muscle forces. The hypothesis was examined with an analytical description of transduction of motor unit spike trains into muscle force, a computational model of motor unit recruitment and rate coding, and experimental analysis of interspike interval variability during steady contractions with the abductor digiti minimi muscle. Simulations varied contraction force, level of synaptic noise, size of motor unit population, recruitment range, twitch contraction times, and level of motor unit short-term synchronization. Consistent with the analytical derivations, simulations and experimental data showed that force variability at target forces above a threshold was primarily due to low-frequency oscillations in neural drive, whereas the influence of synaptic noise was almost completely attenuated by two low-pass filters, one related to convolution of motoneuron spike trains with motor unit twitches (temporal summation) and the other attributable to summation of single motor unit forces (spatial summation). The threshold force above which synaptic noise ceased to influence force steadiness depended on recruitment range, size of motor unit population, and muscle contractile properties. This threshold was low (<10% of maximal force) for typical values of these parameters. Results indicate that motor unit recruitment and muscle properties of a typical muscle are tuned to limit the influence of synaptic noise on force steadiness to low forces and that the inability to produce a constant force during stronger contractions is mainly attributable to the common low-frequency oscillations in motoneuron discharge rates. PMID:22423000

Risk management in air protection in the Republic of Croatia.

PubMed

Peternel, Renata; Toth, Ivan; Hercog, Predrag

2014-03-01

In the Republic of Croatia, according to the Air Protection Act, air pollution assessment is obligatory on the whole State territory. For individual regions and populated areas in the State a network has been established for permanent air quality monitoring. The State network consists of stations for measuring background pollution, regional and cross-border remote transfer and measurements as part of international government liabilities, then stations for measuring air quality in areas of cultural and natural heritage, and stations for measuring air pollution in towns and industrial zones. The exceeding of alert and information threshold levels of air pollutants are related to emissions from industrial plants, and accidents. Each excess represents a threat to human health in case of short-time exposure. Monitoring of alert and information threshold levels is carried out at stations from the state and local networks for permanent air quality monitoring according to the Air Quality Measurement Program in the State network for permanent monitoring of air quality and air quality measurement programs in local networks for permanent air quality monitoring. The State network for permanent air quality monitoring has a developed automatic system for reporting on alert and information threshold levels, whereas many local networks under the competence of regional and local self-governments still lack any fully installed systems of this type. In case of accidents, prompt action at all responsibility levels is necessary in order to prevent crisis and this requires developed and coordinated competent units of State Administration as well as self-government units. It is also necessary to be continuously active in improving the implementation of legislative regulations in the field of crises related to critical and alert levels of air pollutants, especially at local levels.

Efficacy and workload analysis of a fixed vertical couch position technique and a fixed‐action–level protocol in whole‐breast radiotherapy

PubMed Central

Verhoeven, Karolien; Weltens, Caroline; Van den Heuvel, Frank

2015-01-01

Quantification of the setup errors is vital to define appropriate setup margins preventing geographical misses. The no‐action–level (NAL) correction protocol reduces the systematic setup errors and, hence, the setup margins. The manual entry of the setup corrections in the record‐and‐verify software, however, increases the susceptibility of the NAL protocol to human errors. Moreover, the impact of the skin mobility on the anteroposterior patient setup reproducibility in whole‐breast radiotherapy (WBRT) is unknown. In this study, we therefore investigated the potential of fixed vertical couch position‐based patient setup in WBRT. The possibility to introduce a threshold for correction of the systematic setup errors was also explored. We measured the anteroposterior, mediolateral, and superior–inferior setup errors during fractions 1–12 and weekly thereafter with tangential angled single modality paired imaging. These setup data were used to simulate the residual setup errors of the NAL protocol, the fixed vertical couch position protocol, and the fixed‐action–level protocol with different correction thresholds. Population statistics of the setup errors of 20 breast cancer patients and 20 breast cancer patients with additional regional lymph node (LN) irradiation were calculated to determine the setup margins of each off‐line correction protocol. Our data showed the potential of the fixed vertical couch position protocol to restrict the systematic and random anteroposterior residual setup errors to 1.8 mm and 2.2 mm, respectively. Compared to the NAL protocol, a correction threshold of 2.5 mm reduced the frequency of mediolateral and superior–inferior setup corrections with 40% and 63%, respectively. The implementation of the correction threshold did not deteriorate the accuracy of the off‐line setup correction compared to the NAL protocol. The combination of the fixed vertical couch position protocol, for correction of the anteroposterior setup error, and the fixed‐action–level protocol with 2.5 mm correction threshold, for correction of the mediolateral and the superior–inferior setup errors, was proved to provide adequate and comparable patient setup accuracy in WBRT and WBRT with additional LN irradiation. PACS numbers: 87.53.Kn, 87.57.‐s

Odor Detection Thresholds in a Population of Older Adults

PubMed Central

Schubert, Carla R.; Fischer, Mary E.; Pinto, A. Alex; Klein, Barbara E.K.; Klein, Ronald; Cruickshanks, Karen J.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE To measure odor detection thresholds and associated nasal and behavioral factors in an older adult population. STUDY DESIGN Cross-sectional cohort study METHODS Odor detection thresholds were obtained using an automated olfactometer on 832 participants, aged 68–99 (mean age 77) years in the 21-year (2013–2016) follow-up visit of the Epidemiology of Hearing Loss Study. RESULTS The mean odor detection threshold (ODT) score was 8.2 (range: 1–13; standard deviation = 2.54), corresponding to a n-butanol concentration of slightly less than 0.03%. Older participants were significantly more likely to have lower (worse) ODT scores than younger participants (p<0.001). There were no significant differences in mean ODT scores between men and women. Older age was significantly associated with worse performance in multivariable regression models and exercising at least once a week was associated with a reduced odds of having a low (≤5) ODT score. Cognitive impairment was also associated with poor performance while a history of allergies or a deviated septum were associated with better performance. CONCLUSION Odor detection threshold scores were worse in older age groups but similar between men and women in this large population of older adults. Regular exercise was associated with better odor detection thresholds adding to the evidence that decline in olfactory function with age may be partly preventable. PMID:28000220

PSYCHIATRIC COMORBIDITY DOES NOT ONLY DEPEND ON DIAGNOSTIC THRESHOLDS: AN ILLUSTRATION WITH MAJOR DEPRESSIVE DISORDER AND GENERALIZED ANXIETY DISORDER.

PubMed

van Loo, Hanna M; Schoevers, Robert A; Kendler, Kenneth S; de Jonge, Peter; Romeijn, Jan-Willem

2016-02-01

High rates of psychiatric comorbidity are subject of debate: To what extent do they depend on classification choices such as diagnostic thresholds? This paper investigates the influence of different thresholds on rates of comorbidity between major depressive disorder (MDD) and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD). Point prevalence of comorbidity between MDD and GAD was measured in 74,092 subjects from the general population (LifeLines) according to Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM-IV-TR) criteria. Comorbidity rates were compared for different thresholds by varying the number of necessary criteria from ≥ 1 to all nine symptoms for MDD, and from ≥ 1 to all seven symptoms for GAD. According to DSM thresholds, 0.86% had MDD only, 2.96% GAD only, and 1.14% both MDD and GAD (odds ratio (OR) 42.6). Lower thresholds for MDD led to higher rates of comorbidity (1.44% for ≥ 4 of nine MDD symptoms, OR 34.4), whereas lower thresholds for GAD hardly influenced comorbidity (1.16% for ≥ 3 of seven GAD symptoms, OR 38.8). Specific patterns in the distribution of symptoms within the population explained this finding: 37.3% of subjects with core criteria of MDD and GAD reported subthreshold MDD symptoms, whereas only 7.6% reported subthreshold GAD symptoms. Lower thresholds for MDD increased comorbidity with GAD, but not vice versa, owing to specific symptom patterns in the population. Generally, comorbidity rates result from both empirical symptom distributions and classification choices and cannot be reduced to either of these exclusively. This insight invites further research into the formation of disease concepts that allow for reliable predictions and targeted therapeutic interventions. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Killer whales (Orcinus orca) face protracted health risks associated with lifetime exposure to PCBs.

PubMed

Hickie, Brendan E; Ross, Peter S; Macdonald, Robie W; Ford, John K B

2007-09-15

Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations declined rapidly in environmental compartments and most biota following implementation of regulations in the 1970s. However, the metabolic recalcitrance of PCBs may delay responses to such declines in large, long-lived species, such as the endangered and highly PCB-contaminated resident killer whales (Orcinus orca) of the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. To investigate the influence of life history on PCB-related health risks, we developed models to estimate PCB concentrations in killer whales during the period from 1930 forward to 2030, both within a lifetime (approximately 50 years) and across generations, and then evaluated these in the context of health effects thresholds established for marine mammals. Modeled PCB concentrations in killer whales responded slowly to changes in loadings to the environment as evidenced by slower accumulation and lower magnitude increases in PCB concentrations relative to prey, and a delayed decline that was particularly evident in adult males. Since PCBs attained peak levels well above the effects threshold (17 mg/kg lipid) in approximately 1969, estimated concentrations in both the northern and the more contaminated southern resident populations have declined gradually. Projections suggest that the northern resident population could largely fall below the threshold concentration by 2030 while the endangered southern residents may not do so until at least 2063. Long-lived aquatic mammals are therefore not protected from PCBs by current dietary residue guidelines.

Multiple factors influence population sex ratios in the Mojave Desert moss Syntrichia caninervis.

PubMed

Baughman, Jenna T; Payton, Adam C; Paasch, Amber E; Fisher, Kirsten M; McDaniel, Stuart F

2017-05-01

Natural populations of many mosses appear highly female-biased based on the presence of reproductive structures. This bias could be caused by increased male mortality, lower male growth rate, or a higher threshold for achieving sexual maturity in males. Here we test these hypotheses using samples from two populations of the Mojave Desert moss Syntrichia caninervis . We used double-digest restriction-site associated DNA (RAD) sequencing to identify candidate sex-associated loci in a panel of sex-expressing plants. Next, we used putative sex-associated markers to identify the sex of individuals without sex structures. We found a 17:1 patch-level phenotypic female to male sex ratio in the higher elevation site (Wrightwood) and no sex expression at the low elevation site (Phelan). In contrast, on the basis of genetic data, we found a 2:1 female bias at the Wrightwood site and only females at the Phelan site. The relative area occupied by male and female genets was indistinguishable, but males were less genetically diverse. Our data suggest that both male-biased mortality and sexual dimorphism in thresholds for sex expression could explain genetic and phenotypic sex ratio biases and that phenotypic sex expression alone over-estimates the extent of actual sex ratio bias present in these two populations of S. caninervis . © 2017 Botanical Society of America.

Assessment of tolerant sunfish populations (Lepomis sp.) inhabiting selenium-laden coal ash effluents. 2. Tissue biochemistry evaluation.

PubMed

Lohner, T W; Reash, R J; Williams, M

2001-11-01

Sunfish were collected from a fly ash pond-receiving stream and an Ohio River reference site to assess biochemical responses to coal ash effluent exposure. Selenium levels in sunfish from the receiving stream were higher than toxic thresholds associated with adverse population effects and reproductive impairment. Tissue biochemistry was found to be indicative of metal exposure and effect, but varied widely. Liver glycogen was positively correlated with increased liver metal levels, indicating no adverse effect upon stored carbohydrate levels. Lipid levels decreased with increasing metals, indicating possible nutritional stress. Protein levels increased with increasing metal levels, possibly due to the synthesis of proteins to sequester the metals. ATPase, dUTPase, and alkaline phosphatase activity generally decreased with exposure to ash pond metals, but remained within normal physiological ranges. Fish condition factors and liver somatic indices were correlated with liver lipid levels, dUTPase activity, and gill ATPase and alkaline phosphatase activity. Exposure to coal ash effluents produced biochemical markers of exposure that were associated with fish condition indicators; however, the indices themselves were not significantly affected by effluent exposure.

Analysis of lethal and sublethal impacts of environmental disasters on sperm whales using stochastic modeling.

PubMed

Ackleh, Azmy S; Chiquet, Ross A; Ma, Baoling; Tang, Tingting; Caswell, Hal; Veprauskas, Amy; Sidorovskaia, Natalia

2017-08-01

Mathematical models are essential for combining data from multiple sources to quantify population endpoints. This is especially true for species, such as marine mammals, for which data on vital rates are difficult to obtain. Since the effects of an environmental disaster are not fixed, we develop time-varying (nonautonomous) matrix population models that account for the eventual recovery of the environment to the pre-disaster state. We use these models to investigate how lethal and sublethal impacts (in the form of reductions in the survival and fecundity, respectively) affect the population's recovery process. We explore two scenarios of the environmental recovery process and include the effect of demographic stochasticity. Our results provide insights into the relationship between the magnitude of the disaster, the duration of the disaster, and the probability that the population recovers to pre-disaster levels or a biologically relevant threshold level. To illustrate this modeling methodology, we provide an application to a sperm whale population. This application was motivated by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico that has impacted a wide variety of species populations including oysters, fish, corals, and whales.

Relation of the runaway avalanche threshold to momentum space topology

DOE PAGES

McDevitt, Christopher J.; Guo, Zehua; Tang, Xian -Zhu

2018-01-05

Here, the underlying physics responsible for the formation of an avalanche instability due to the generation of secondary electrons is studied. A careful examination of the momentum space topology of the runaway electron population is carried out with an eye toward identifying how qualitative changes in the momentum space of the runaway electrons is correlated with the avalanche threshold. It is found that the avalanche threshold is tied to the merger of an O and X point in the momentum space of the primary runaway electron population. Such a change of the momentum space topology is shown to be accuratelymore » described by a simple analytic model, thus providing a powerful means of determining the avalanche threshold for a range of model assumptions.« less

Relation of the runaway avalanche threshold to momentum space topology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDevitt, Christopher J.; Guo, Zehua; Tang, Xian -Zhu

Here, the underlying physics responsible for the formation of an avalanche instability due to the generation of secondary electrons is studied. A careful examination of the momentum space topology of the runaway electron population is carried out with an eye toward identifying how qualitative changes in the momentum space of the runaway electrons is correlated with the avalanche threshold. It is found that the avalanche threshold is tied to the merger of an O and X point in the momentum space of the primary runaway electron population. Such a change of the momentum space topology is shown to be accuratelymore » described by a simple analytic model, thus providing a powerful means of determining the avalanche threshold for a range of model assumptions.« less

Electrically evoked compound action potential amplitude growth functions and HiResolution programming levels in pediatric CII implant subjects.

PubMed

Eisen, Marc D; Franck, Kevin H

2004-12-01

To characterize the amplitude growth functions of the electrically evoked compound action potential (ECAP) in pediatric subjects implanted with the Clarion HiFocus electrode array with respect to electrode position and the presence or absence of a Silastic positioner. Electrophysiologic growth function data are compared with HiResolution (HiRes) psychophysical programming levels. ECAP growth functions were measured for all electrodes along the implant's array in 16 pediatric subjects. Nine of the patients were implanted with a Silastic positioner, whereas seven had no positioner. ECAP thresholds and growth function slopes were calculated. Fifteen of the 16 patients had psychophysical threshold and maximum comfort levels available. Programming levels and ECAP thresholds were compared within and among the subjects. ECAP thresholds showed variability among patients, ranging from 178 to 920 nA at 32 musec pulse width. ECAP thresholds did not depend on electrode position along the cochlea but were lower in the presence of the Silastic positioner (p < 0.001). Thresholds determined with the masker-probe versus the alternating polarity paradigms revealed moderate (r = 0.76) correlation. Growth function slopes also showed considerable variation among patients. Unlike thresholds, slopes decreased from apical to basal cochlear locations (p < 0.001) but showed no difference between the absence and presence of the positioner. Programming levels in HiRes were correlated with ECAP threshold levels. When ECAP thresholds were adjusted for each patient by the difference between M level and ECAP threshold at electrode 9, however, overall correlation between the two measurements was excellent (r = 0.98, N = 224). In pediatric subjects with the Clarion HiFocus electrode, ECAP growth function thresholds appear to decrease with the presence of the Silastic positioner but are unaffected by electrode position along the array. Growth function slope, however, depends on electrode position along the array but not on the presence of the positioner. ECAP programming levels can reliably predict stimulus intensities within the patients' dynamic ranges, but considerable variability is seen between ECAP thresholds and HiRes programming levels.

Large-scale population analysis reveals an extremely low threshold for "non-healthy" alanine aminotransferase that predicts diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Shlomai, Amir; Kariv, Revital; Leshno, Moshe; Beth-or, Anat; Sheinberg, Bracha; Halpern, Zamir

2010-10-01

Serum alanine aminotransferase (ALT) is commonly used to detect liver damage. Recent studies indicate that ALT levels at the upper range of normal limits are predictors of adverse outcomes, especially diabetes mellitus (DM) and the metabolic syndrome. The aim of our study was to define the ALT threshold for both men and women that may predict the onset of DM. We analyzed a large Health Maintenance Organization cohort of 157 308 healthy subjects with no evidence of liver disease and with baseline ALT levels ≤ 120 U/L, and identified those who developed DM within 6 years. Overall, an elevated baseline serum ALT value was significantly associated with the development of DM, with an odds ratio of 3.3 when comparing the higher and the lower quartiles of the whole study population. A subgroup analysis revealed that baseline ALT values higher than 10 U/L among women and 22 U/L among men were already significantly associated with an increased risk for DM for any increment in ALT level. Notably, ALT values higher than ∼55 U/L were associated with increased risk for DM that was relatively constant for any increment in ALT. Higher baseline ALT levels were stronger predictors for DM as compared with age, triglycerides and cholesterol levels. Our study implies that ALT values higher than 10 U/L and 22 U/L for women and men, respectively, may predict DM. We suggest redefining ALT values as either 'normal' or 'healthy', with the later reflecting much lower values, above which an individual is at increased risk for DM. © 2010 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Five challenges for spatial epidemic models.

PubMed

Riley, Steven; Eames, Ken; Isham, Valerie; Mollison, Denis; Trapman, Pieter

2015-03-01

Infectious disease incidence data are increasingly available at the level of the individual and include high-resolution spatial components. Therefore, we are now better able to challenge models that explicitly represent space. Here, we consider five topics within spatial disease dynamics: the construction of network models; characterising threshold behaviour; modelling long-distance interactions; the appropriate scale for interventions; and the representation of population heterogeneity. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes in ganglion cell physiology during retinal degeneration influence excitability by prosthetic electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Alice; Ratliff, Charles; Sampath, Alapakkam; Weiland, James

2016-04-01

Objective. Here we investigate ganglion cell physiology in healthy and degenerating retina to test its influence on threshold to electrical stimulation. Approach. Age-related Macular Degeneration and Retinitis Pigmentosa cause blindness via outer retinal degeneration. Inner retinal pathways that transmit visual information to the central brain remain intact, so direct electrical stimulation from prosthetic devices offers the possibility for visual restoration. Since inner retinal physiology changes during degeneration, we characterize physiological properties and responses to electrical stimulation in retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) of both wild type mice and the rd10 mouse model of retinal degeneration. Main results. Our aggregate results support previous observations that elevated thresholds characterize diseased retinas. However, a physiology-driven classification scheme reveals distinct sub-populations of ganglion cells with thresholds either normal or strongly elevated compared to wild-type. When these populations are combined, only a weakly elevated threshold with large variance is observed. The cells with normal threshold are more depolarized at rest and exhibit periodic oscillations. Significance. During degeneration, physiological changes in RGCs affect the threshold stimulation currents required to evoke action potentials.

International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the 'ISOTHURM' project.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J; Wilkinson, Paul; Kovats, R Sari; Pattenden, Sam; Hajat, Shakoor; Armstrong, Ben; Vajanapoom, Nitaya; Niciu, Emilia M; Mahomed, Hassan; Kingkeow, Chamnong; Kosnik, Mitja; O'Neill, Marie S; Romieu, Isabelle; Ramirez-Aguilar, Matiana; Barreto, Mauricio L; Gouveia, Nelson; Nikiforov, Bojidar

2008-10-01

This study describes heat- and cold-related mortality in 12 urban populations in low- and middle-income countries, thereby extending knowledge of how diverse populations, in non-OECD countries, respond to temperature extremes. The cities were: Delhi, Monterrey, Mexico City, Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Salvador, São Paulo, Santiago, Cape Town, Ljubljana, Bucharest and Sofia. For each city, daily mortality was examined in relation to ambient temperature using autoregressive Poisson models (2- to 5-year series) adjusted for season, relative humidity, air pollution, day of week and public holidays. Most cities showed a U-shaped temperature-mortality relationship, with clear evidence of increasing death rates at colder temperatures in all cities except Ljubljana, Salvador and Delhi and with increasing heat in all cities except Chiang Mai and Cape Town. Estimates of the temperature threshold below which cold-related mortality began to increase ranged from 15 degrees C to 29 degrees C; the threshold for heat-related deaths ranged from 16 degrees C to 31 degrees C. Heat thresholds were generally higher in cities with warmer climates, while cold thresholds were unrelated to climate. Urban populations, in diverse geographic settings, experience increases in mortality due to both high and low temperatures. The effects of heat and cold vary depending on climate and non-climate factors such as the population disease profile and age structure. Although such populations will undergo some adaptation to increasing temperatures, many are likely to have substantial vulnerability to climate change. Additional research is needed to elucidate vulnerability within populations.

Do ethnicity and gender have an impact on pain thresholds in minor dermatologic procedures? A study on thermal pain perception thresholds in Asian ethinic groups.

PubMed

Yosipovitch, Gil; Meredith, Gregory; Chan, Yiong Huak; Goh, Chee Leok

2004-02-01

The perception of pain is a personal experience influenced by many factors, including genetic, ethnic and cultural issues. Understanding these perceptions is especially important in dermatologic patients undergoing minor surgical operations and who often differ in their pain response to surgical treatments. Little is known about how these differences affect the perception of experimental pain. The purpose of this study was to determine experimental pain perception differences in three distinct East Asian ethnic populations. Pain thresholds were examined with a psychophysical computerized quantitative thermal sensory testing device (TSA 2001) in healthy volunteers recruited from three different Asian ethnic groups. Using the methods of limits, experimental pain perception threshold was measured on the forehead and volar aspect of the forearm in 49 healthy subjects. The measurements were then repeated after skin barrier perturbation with adhesive tape stripping of the stratum corneum. All three ethnic groups were analyzed separately with respect to age, gender educational level and skin type. A total of 20 Chinese, 14 Malay and 15 Indian subjects completed the study. Thermal pain thresholds were similar in all three ethnic groups before and after tape strippings. No significant differences were noted between genders. Using quantitative sensory thermal testing, we demonstrated that no significant differences in pain occur between different races and genders.

The impact of threshold language assistance programming on the accessibility of mental health services for persons with limited English proficiency in the Medi-Cal setting.

PubMed

McClellan, Sean R; Wu, Frances M; Snowden, Lonnie R

2012-06-01

Title VI of the 1964 Civil Rights Act prohibits federal funds recipients from providing care to limited English proficiency (LEP) persons more limited in scope or lower in quality than care provided to others. In 1999, the California Department of Mental Health implemented a "threshold language access policy" to meet its Title VI obligations. Under this policy, Medi-Cal agencies must provide language assistance programming in a non-English language where a county's Medical population contains either 3000 residents or 5% speakers of that language. We examine the impact of threshold language policy-required language assistance programming on LEP persons' access to mental health services by analyzing the county-level penetration rate of services for Russian, Spanish, and Vietnamese speakers across 34 California counties, over 10 years of quarterly data. Exploiting a time series with nonequivalent control group study design, we studied this phenomena using linear regression with random county effects to account for trends over time. Threshold language policy-required assistance programming led to an immediate and significant increase in the penetration rate of mental health services for Russian (8.2, P < 0.01) and Vietnamese (3.3, P < 0.01) language speaking persons. Threshold language assistance programming was effective in increasing mental health access for Russian and Vietnamese, but not for Spanish-speaking LEP persons.

Dynamic complexities in a pest control model with birth pulse and harvesting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goel, A., E-mail: goelanju23@gmail.com; Gakkhar, S., E-mail: sungkfma@iitr.ernet.in

In this paper, an impulsive model is discussed for an integrated pest management approach comprising of chemical and mechanical controls. The pesticides and harvesting are used to control the stage-structured pest population. The mature pest give birth to immature pest in pulses at regular intervals. The pest is controlled by spraying chemical pesticides affecting immature as well as mature pest. The harvesting of both immature and mature pest further reduce the pest population. The discrete dynamical system obtained from stroboscopic map is analyzed. The threshold conditions for stability of pest-free state as well as non-trivial period-1 solution is obtained. Themore » effect of pesticide spray timing and harvesting on immature as well as mature pest are shown. Finally, by numerical simulation with MATLAB, the dynamical behaviors of the model is found to be complex. Above the threshold level there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations leading to chaotic dynamics. Route to chaos is found to be period-doubling. Period halving bifurcations are also observed.« less

An analysis of population-based prenatal screening for overt hypothyroidism.

PubMed

Bryant, Stefanie N; Nelson, David B; McIntire, Donald D; Casey, Brian M; Cunningham, F Gary

2015-10-01

The purpose of the study was to evaluate pregnancy outcomes of hypothyroidism that were identified in a population-based prenatal screening program. This is a secondary analysis of a prospective prenatal population-based study in which serum thyroid analytes were obtained from November 2000 to April 2003. Initial screening thresholds were intentionally inclusive (thyroid-stimulating hormone [TSH], >3.0 mU/L; free thyroxine, <0.9 ng/dL); those who screened positive were referred for confirmatory testing in a hospital-based laboratory. Hypothyroidism was identified and treated if TSH level was >4.5 mU/L and if fT4 level was <0.76 ng/dL. Perinatal outcomes in these women and those who screened positive but unconfirmed to have hypothyroidism were compared with women with euthyroidism. Outcomes were then analyzed according to initial TSH levels. A total of 26,518 women completed initial screening: 24,584 women (93%) were euthyroid, and 284 women (1%) had abnormal initial values that suggested hypothyroidism. Of those referred, 232 women (82%) underwent repeat testing, and 47 women (0.2% initially screened) were confirmed to have hypothyroidism. Perinatal outcomes of women with treated overt hypothyroidism were similar to women with euthyroidism. Higher rates of pregnancy-related hypertension were identified in the 182 women with unconfirmed hypothyroidism when compared with women with euthyroidism (P < .001); however, this association was seen only in women with initial TSH >4.5 mU/L (adjusted odds ratio, 2.53; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-4.5). The identification and treatment of overt hypothyroidism results in pregnancy outcomes similar to women with euthyroidism. Unconfirmed screening results suggestive of hypothyroidism portend pregnancy risks similar to women with subclinical hypothyroidism, specifically preeclampsia; however, this increased risk was seen only in women with initial TSH levels of >4.5 mU/L and suggests that this is a more clinically relevant threshold than 3.0 mU/L. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Severity of killer whale behavioral responses to ship noise: a dose-response study.

PubMed

Williams, Rob; Erbe, Christine; Ashe, Erin; Beerman, Amber; Smith, Jodi

2014-02-15

Critical habitats of at-risk populations of northeast Pacific "resident" killer whales can be heavily trafficked by large ships, with transits occurring on average once every hour in busy shipping lanes. We modeled behavioral responses of killer whales to ship transits during 35 "natural experiments" as a dose-response function of estimated received noise levels in both broadband and audiogram-weighted terms. Interpreting effects is contingent on a subjective and seemingly arbitrary decision about severity threshold indicating a response. Subtle responses were observed around broadband received levels of 130 dB re 1 μPa (rms); more severe responses are hypothesized to occur at received levels beyond 150 dB re 1 μPa, where our study lacked data. Avoidance responses are expected to carry minor energetic costs in terms of increased energy expenditure, but future research must assess the potential for reduced prey acquisition, and potential population consequences, under these noise levels. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring Image Navigation and Registration Performance at the 3-Sigma Level Using Platinum Quality Landmarks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carr, James L.; Madani, Houria

2007-01-01

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) Image Navigation and Registration (INR) performance is specified at the 3- level, meaning that 99.7% of a collection of individual measurements must comply with specification thresholds. Landmarks are measured by the Replacement Product Monitor (RPM), part of the operational GOES ground system, to assess INR performance and to close the INR loop. The RPM automatically discriminates between valid and invalid measurements enabling it to run without human supervision. In general, this screening is reliable, but a small population of invalid measurements will be falsely identified as valid. Even a small population of invalid measurements can create problems when assessing performance at the 3-sigma level. This paper describes an additional layer of quality control whereby landmarks of the highest quality ("platinum") are identified by their self-consistency. The platinum screening criteria are not simple statistical outlier tests against sigma values in populations of INR errors. In-orbit INR performance metrics for GOES-12 and GOES-13 are presented using the platinum landmark methodology.

GAS PHOTOTUBE CIRCUIT

DOEpatents

Richardson, J.H.

1958-03-01

This patent pertains to electronic circuits for measuring the intensity of light and is especially concerned with measurement between preset light thresholds. Such a circuit has application in connection with devices for reading-out information stored on punch cards or tapes where the cards and tapes are translucent. By the novel arrangement of this invention thc sensitivity of a gas phototube is maintained at a low value when the light intensity is below a first threshold level. If the light level rises above the first threshold level, the tube is rendered highly sensitive and an output signal will vary in proportion to the light intensity change. When the light level decreases below a second threshold level, the gas phototube is automatically rendered highly insensitive. Each of these threshold points is adjustable.

Influence of fatiguing noise on auditory evoked responses to stimuli of various levels in a beluga whale, Delphinapterus leucas.

PubMed

Popov, Vladimir V; Sysueva, Evgeniya V; Nechaev, Dmitry I; Rozhnov, Viatcheslav V; Supin, Alexander Ya

2017-03-15

The negative impact of man-made noise on the hearing of odontocetes has attracted considerable recent attention. In the majority of studies, permanent or temporary reductions in sensitivity, known as permanent or temporary threshold shift (PTS or TTS, respectively), have been investigated. In the present study, the effects of a fatiguing sound on the hearing of a beluga whale, Delphinapterus leucas , within a wide range of levels of test signals was investigated. The fatiguing noise was half-octave band-limited noise centered at 32 kHz. Post-exposure effects of this noise on the evoked responses to test stimuli (rhythmic pip trains with a 45-kHz center frequency) at various levels (from threshold to 60 dB above threshold) were measured. For baseline (pre-exposure) responses, the magnitude-versus-level function featured a segment of steep magnitude dependence on level (up to 30 dB above threshold) that was followed by a plateau segment that featured little dependence on level (30 to 55 dB above threshold). Post-exposure, the function shifted upward along the level scale. The shift was 23 dB at the threshold and up to 33 dB at the supra-threshold level. Owing to the plateau in the magnitude-versus-level function, post-exposure suppression of responses depended on the stimulus level such that higher levels corresponded to less suppression. The experimental data may be modeled based on the compressive non-linearity of the cochlea. According to the model, post-exposure responses of the cochlea to high-level stimuli are minimally suppressed compared with the pre-exposure responses, despite a substantially increased threshold. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

eIF4E Threshold Levels Differ in Governing Normal and Neoplastic Expansion of Mammary Stem and Luminal Progenitor cells

PubMed Central

Avdulov, Svetlana; Herrera, Jeremy; Smith, Karen; Peterson, Mark; Gomez-Garcia, Jose R.; Beadnell, Thomas C.; Schwertfeger, Kathryn L.; Benyumov, Alexey O.; Manivel, J. Carlos; Li, Shunan; Bielinsky, Anja-Katrin; Yee, Douglas; Bitterman, Peter B.; Polunovsky, Vitaly A.

2015-01-01

Translation initiation factor eIF4E mediates normal cell proliferation, yet induces tumorigenesis when overexpressed. The mechanisms by which eIF4E directs such distinct biological outputs remains unknown. We found that mouse mammary morphogenesis during pregnancy and lactation is accompanied by increased cap-binding capability of eIF4E and activation of the eIF4E-dependent translational apparatus, but only subtle oscillations in eIF4E abundance. Using a transgenic mouse model engineered so that lactogenic hormones stimulate a sustained increase in eIF4E abundance in stem/progenitor cells of lactogenic mammary epithelium during successive pregnancy/lactation cycles, eIF4E overexpression increased cell self-renewal, triggered DNA replication stress, and induced formation of pre-malignant and malignant lesions. Using complementary in vivo and ex vivo approaches, we found that increasing eIF4E levels rescued cells harboring oncogenic c-Myc or H-RasV12 from DNA replication stress and oncogene-induced replication catastrophe. Our findings indicate that distinct threshold levels of eIF4E govern its biological output in lactating mammary glands, and that eIF4E overexpression in the context of stem/progenitor cell population expansion can initiate malignant transformation by enabling cells to evade DNA damage checkpoints activated by oncogenic stimuli. Maintaining eIF4E levels below its pro-neoplastic threshold is an important anticancer defense in normal cells, with important implications for understanding pregnancy-associated breast cancer. PMID:25524901

eIF4E threshold levels differ in governing normal and neoplastic expansion of mammary stem and luminal progenitor cells.

PubMed

Avdulov, Svetlana; Herrera, Jeremy; Smith, Karen; Peterson, Mark; Gomez-Garcia, Jose R; Beadnell, Thomas C; Schwertfeger, Kathryn L; Benyumov, Alexey O; Manivel, J Carlos; Li, Shunan; Bielinsky, Anja-Katrin; Yee, Douglas; Bitterman, Peter B; Polunovsky, Vitaly A

2015-02-15

Translation initiation factor eIF4E mediates normal cell proliferation, yet induces tumorigenesis when overexpressed. The mechanisms by which eIF4E directs such distinct biologic outputs remain unknown. We found that mouse mammary morphogenesis during pregnancy and lactation is accompanied by increased cap-binding capability of eIF4E and activation of the eIF4E-dependent translational apparatus, but only subtle oscillations in eIF4E abundance. Using a transgenic mouse model engineered so that lactogenic hormones stimulate a sustained increase in eIF4E abundance in stem/progenitor cells of lactogenic mammary epithelium during successive pregnancy/lactation cycles, eIF4E overexpression increased self-renewal, triggered DNA replication stress, and induced formation of premalignant and malignant lesions. Using complementary in vivo and ex vivo approaches, we found that increasing eIF4E levels rescued cells harboring oncogenic c-Myc or H-RasV12 from DNA replication stress and oncogene-induced replication catastrophe. Our findings indicate that distinct threshold levels of eIF4E govern its biologic output in lactating mammary glands and that eIF4E overexpression in the context of stem/progenitor cell population expansion can initiate malignant transformation by enabling cells to evade DNA damage checkpoints activated by oncogenic stimuli. Maintaining eIF4E levels below its proneoplastic threshold is an important anticancer defense in normal cells, with important implications for understanding pregnancy-associated breast cancer. ©2014 American Association for Cancer Research.

Addressing the Human Resources for Health crisis in countries: How far have we gone? What can we expect to achieve by 2015?

PubMed

Dayrit, Manuel M; Dolea, Carmen; Dreesch, Norbert

2011-06-01

The World Health Report 2006 identified 57 countries world-wide whose health worker to population density fell below a critical threshold of 2.3 per 1,000 population. This meant that below this critical threshold, a country could not provide the basic health services to its population, defined here as 80% immunization coverage and 80% skilled birth attendance at delivery. Of the 57 countries, 36 are located in Africa. This article reviews the progress countries have made in addressing their health workforce crisis. It cites 3 of the most recent global studies and the indicators used to measure progress. It also features the experiences of 8 countries, namely Malawi, Peru, Ethiopia, Brazil, Thailand, Philippines, Zambia, Mali. Their situations provide a diverse picture of country efforts, challenges, and successes. The article asks the question of whether the target of 25% reduction in the number of crisis countries can be achieved by 2015. This was a goal set by the World Health Assembly in 2008. While the authors wish to remain optimistic about the striving towards this target, their optimism must be matched by an adequate level of investment in countries on HRH development. The next four years will show how much will really be achieved.

Chlorinated hydrocarbon contamination in osprey eggs and nestlings from the Canadian Great Lakes basin, 1991-1995.

PubMed

Martin, Pamela A; De Solla, Shane R; Ewins, Peter

2003-01-01

Populations of osprey (Pandion haliaetus) in the Great Lakes basin declined dramatically during the 1950s-1970s due largely to adverse effects of persistent chlorinated hydrocarbons, ingested in their fish prey, on eggshell thickness and adult survival. Nevertheless, these contaminants were not measured in osprey tissues during the decades of decline on the Canadian Great Lakes. Between 1991 and 1995, we monitored recovering osprey populations on the Great Lakes, including Georgian Bay and the St. Marys River area on Lake Huron and the St. Lawrence Islands National Park, as well as at two inland sites within the basin. Current OC levels, even from the most contaminated lakes, were typically lower than those associated with reproductive effects. DDE levels in fresh eggs averaged 1.2-2.9 microg/g, well below the 4.2 microg/g level associated with significant eggshell thinning and shell breakage. Nevertheless, a proportion of eggs from all study areas did exceed this level. PCB levels in eggs seldom exceeded 5 microg/g except in one lake of high breeding density in the Kawartha Lakes inland study area, where the mean sum PCB level was 7.1 microg/g and the maximum concentration measured was 26.5 microg/g. On average, mean reproductive output (0.78-2.75 young per occupied nest) of breeding populations in Great Lakes basin study areas exceeded the threshold of 0.8 young thought necessary to maintain stable populations. We concluded that, although eggs and especially nestling plasma, are useful in reflecting local contaminant levels, ospreys are relatively insensitive, at least at the population level, to health effects of current levels of chlorinated hydrocarbons on the Canadian Great Lakes.

Contaminant effect endpoints in terrestrial vertebrates at and above the individual level

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rattner, B.A.; Cohen, J.B.; Golden, N.H.; Albers, P.H.; Heinz, G.H.; Ohlendorf, H.M.

2000-01-01

Use of biochemical, physiological, anatomical, reproductive and behavioral characteristics of wild terrestrial vertebrates to assess contaminant exposure and effects has become commonplace over the past 3 decades. At the level of the individual organism, response patterns have been associated with and sometimes causally linked to contaminant exposure. However, such responses at the organismal level are rarely associated with or causally linked to effects at the population level. Although the ultimate goal of ecotoxicology is the protection of populations, communities, and ecosystems, most of the existing science and regulatory legislation focus on the level of the individual. Consequently, much of this overview concentrates on contaminant effects at the organismal level, with some extrapolation to higher-level effects. In this chapter, we review the state of the science for the evaluation of biotic end-points used to assess contaminant exposure and effects at or above the level of the individual. In addition, we describe extant contaminant concentration thresholds, guidelines, or standards (toxicant criteria) in environmental matrices (e.g., water, soil, sediment, foods) that have been developed to protect wild terrestrial vertebrates. Suggestions are provided to develop and embellish the use and value of such endpoints and criteria for extrapolation of effects to higher levels of biological organization. Increasing focus on populations, communities, and ecosystems is needed to develop biologically meaningful regulatory guidelines that will protect natural resources.

Measurement of threshold temperature effects in dissociative electron attachment to HI and DI

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chutjian, A.; Alajajian, S. H.; Man, K.-F.

1990-01-01

From accurate spectroscopic constants it is found that the thermal dissociative-attachment process (DA) in DI should be exothermic only for rotational levels J greater than 8 in v = O. Here, measurement of an enhancement of DA with rotational temperature T in the range 298-468 K is reported. The effect is easily accounted for by the increase in total fractional population of excited J levels in DI relative to HI. The effect affords a rotational analog to the use of vibrationally excited molecules (e.g., HCl) in a plasma to control electron conduction.

Methods for automatic trigger threshold adjustment

DOEpatents

Welch, Benjamin J; Partridge, Michael E

2014-03-18

Methods are presented for adjusting trigger threshold values to compensate for drift in the quiescent level of a signal monitored for initiating a data recording event, thereby avoiding false triggering conditions. Initial threshold values are periodically adjusted by re-measuring the quiescent signal level, and adjusting the threshold values by an offset computation based upon the measured quiescent signal level drift. Re-computation of the trigger threshold values can be implemented on time based or counter based criteria. Additionally, a qualification width counter can be utilized to implement a requirement that a trigger threshold criterion be met a given number of times prior to initiating a data recording event, further reducing the possibility of a false triggering situation.

Stochastic dynamics of dengue epidemics.

PubMed

de Souza, David R; Tomé, Tânia; Pinho, Suani T R; Barreto, Florisneide R; de Oliveira, Mário J

2013-01-01

We use a stochastic Markovian dynamics approach to describe the spreading of vector-transmitted diseases, such as dengue, and the threshold of the disease. The coexistence space is composed of two structures representing the human and mosquito populations. The human population follows a susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) type dynamics and the mosquito population follows a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) type dynamics. The human infection is caused by infected mosquitoes and vice versa, so that the SIS and SIR dynamics are interconnected. We develop a truncation scheme to solve the evolution equations from which we get the threshold of the disease and the reproductive ratio. The threshold of the disease is also obtained by performing numerical simulations. We found that for certain values of the infection rates the spreading of the disease is impossible, for any death rate of infected mosquitoes.

Evaluating an Action Threshold-Based Insecticide Program on Onion Cultivars Varying in Resistance to Onion Thrips (Thysanoptera: Thripidae).

PubMed

Nault, Brian A; Huseth, Anders S

2016-08-01

Onion thrips, Thrips tabaci Lindeman (Thysanoptera: Thripidae), is a highly destructive pest of onion, Allium cepa L., and its management relies on multiple applications of foliar insecticides. Development of insecticide resistance is common in T. tabaci populations, and new strategies are needed to relax existing levels of insecticide use, but still provide protection against T. tabaci without compromising marketable onion yield. An action threshold-based insecticide program combined with or without a thrips-resistant onion cultivar was investigated as an improved approach for managing T. tabaci infestations in commercial onion fields. Regardless of cultivar type, the average number of insecticide applications needed to manage T. tabaci infestations in the action-threshold based program was 4.3, while the average number of sprays in the standard weekly program was 7.2 (a 40% reduction). The mean percent reduction in numbers of applications following the action threshold treatment in the thrips-resistant onion cultivar, 'Advantage', was 46.7% (range 40-50%) compared with the standard program, whereas the percentage reduction in applications in action threshold treatments in the thrips-susceptible onion cultivar, 'Santana', was 34.3% (range 13-50%) compared with the standard program, suggesting a benefit of the thrips-resistant cultivar. Marketable bulb yields for both 'Advantage' and 'Santana' in the action threshold-based program were nearly identical to those in the standard program, indicating that commercially acceptable bulb yields will be generated with fewer insecticide sprays following an action threshold-based program, saving money, time and benefiting the environment. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An adaptive design for updating the threshold value of a continuous biomarker

PubMed Central

Spencer, Amy V.; Harbron, Chris; Mander, Adrian; Wason, James; Peers, Ian

2017-01-01

Potential predictive biomarkers are often measured on a continuous scale, but in practice, a threshold value to divide the patient population into biomarker ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ is desirable. Early phase clinical trials are increasingly using biomarkers for patient selection, but at this stage, it is likely that little will be known about the relationship between the biomarker and the treatment outcome. We describe a single-arm trial design with adaptive enrichment, which can increase power to demonstrate efficacy within a patient subpopulation, the parameters of which are also estimated. Our design enables us to learn about the biomarker and optimally adjust the threshold during the study, using a combination of generalised linear modelling and Bayesian prediction. At the final analysis, a binomial exact test is carried out, allowing the hypothesis that ‘no population subset exists in which the novel treatment has a desirable response rate’ to be tested. Through extensive simulations, we are able to show increased power over fixed threshold methods in many situations without increasing the type-I error rate. We also show that estimates of the threshold, which defines the population subset, are unbiased and often more precise than those from fixed threshold studies. We provide an example of the method applied (retrospectively) to publically available data from a study of the use of tamoxifen after mastectomy by the German Breast Study Group, where progesterone receptor is the biomarker of interest. PMID:27417407

The impact of cochlear fine structure on hearing thresholds and DPOAE levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jungmee; Long, Glenis; Talmadge, Carrick L.

2004-05-01

Although otoacoustic emissions (OAE) are used as clinical and research tools, the correlation between OAE behavioral estimates of hearing status is not large. In normal-hearing individuals, the level of OAEs can vary as much as 30 dB when the frequency is changed less than 5%. These pseudoperiodic variations of OAE level with frequency are known as fine structure. Hearing thresholds measured with high-frequency resolution reveals a similar (up to 15 dB) fine structure. We examine the impact of OAE and threshold fine structures on the prediction of auditory thresholds from OAE levels. Distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs) were measured with sweeping primary tones. Psychoacoustic detection thresholds were measured using pure tones, sweep tones, FM tones, and narrow-band noise. Sweep DPOAE and narrow-band threshold estimates provide estimates that are less influenced by cochlear fine structure and should lead to a higher correlation between OAE levels and psychoacoustic thresholds. [Research supported by PSC CUNY, NIDCD, National Institute on Disability and Rehabilitation Research in U.S. Department of Education, and The Ministry of Education in Korea.

Mathematical Model of Naive T Cell Division and Survival IL-7 Thresholds.

PubMed

Reynolds, Joseph; Coles, Mark; Lythe, Grant; Molina-París, Carmen

2013-01-01

We develop a mathematical model of the peripheral naive T cell population to study the change in human naive T cell numbers from birth to adulthood, incorporating thymic output and the availability of interleukin-7 (IL-7). The model is formulated as three ordinary differential equations: two describe T cell numbers, in a resting state and progressing through the cell cycle. The third is introduced to describe changes in IL-7 availability. Thymic output is a decreasing function of time, representative of the thymic atrophy observed in aging humans. Each T cell is assumed to possess two interleukin-7 receptor (IL-7R) signaling thresholds: a survival threshold and a second, higher, proliferation threshold. If the IL-7R signaling strength is below its survival threshold, a cell may undergo apoptosis. When the signaling strength is above the survival threshold, but below the proliferation threshold, the cell survives but does not divide. Signaling strength above the proliferation threshold enables entry into cell cycle. Assuming that individual cell thresholds are log-normally distributed, we derive population-average rates for apoptosis and entry into cell cycle. We have analyzed the adiabatic change in homeostasis as thymic output decreases. With a parameter set representative of a healthy individual, the model predicts a unique equilibrium number of T cells. In a parameter range representative of persistent viral or bacterial infection, where naive T cell cycle progression is impaired, a decrease in thymic output may result in the collapse of the naive T cell repertoire.

A Gompertz population model with Allee effect and fuzzy initial values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarti, Zenia; Nurkholipah, Nenden Siti; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, Asep K.

2018-03-01

Growth and population dynamics models are important tools used in preparing a good management for society to predict the future of population or species. This has been done by various known methods, one among them is by developing a mathematical model that describes population growth. Models are usually formed into differential equations or systems of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. One example of biological complexity is Allee effect. It is a phenomenon showing a high correlation between very small population size and the mean individual fitness of the population. In this paper the population growth model used is the Gompertz equation model by considering the Allee effect on the population. We explore the properties of the solution to the model numerically using the Runge-Kutta method. Further exploration is done via fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate uncertainty of the initial values of the model. It is known that an initial value greater than the Allee threshold will cause the solution rises towards carrying capacity asymptotically. However, an initial value smaller than the Allee threshold will cause the solution decreases towards zero asymptotically, which means the population is eventually extinct. Numerical solutions show that modeling uncertain initial value of the critical point A (the Allee threshold) with a crisp initial value could cause the extinction of population of a certain possibilistic degree, depending on the predetermined membership function of the initial value.

Correlations among within-channel and between-channel auditory gap-detection thresholds in normal listeners.

PubMed

Phillips, Dennis P; Smith, Jennifer C

2004-01-01

We obtained data on within-channel and between-channel auditory temporal gap-detection acuity in the normal population. Ninety-five normal listeners were tested for gap-detection thresholds, for conditions in which the gap was bounded by spectrally identical, and by spectrally different, acoustic markers. Separate thresholds were obtained with the use of an adaptive tracking method, for gaps delimited by narrowband noise bursts centred on 1.0 kHz, noise bursts centred on 4.0 kHz, and for gaps bounded by a leading marker of 4.0 kHz noise and a trailing marker of 1.0 kHz noise. Gap thresholds were lowest for silent periods bounded by identical markers--'within-channel' stimuli. Gap thresholds were significantly longer for the between-channel stimulus--silent periods bounded by unidentical markers (p < 0.0001). Thresholds for the two within-channel tasks were highly correlated (R = 0.76). Thresholds for the between-channel stimulus were weakly correlated with thresholds for the within-channel stimuli (1.0 kHz, R = 0.39; and 4.0 kHz, R = 0.46). The relatively poor predictability of between-channel thresholds from the within-channel thresholds is new evidence on the separability of the mechanisms that mediate performance of the two tasks. The data confirm that the acuity difference for the tasks, which has previously been demonstrated in only small numbers of highly trained listeners, extends to a population of untrained listeners. The acuity of the between-channel mechanism may be relevant to the formation of voice-onset time-category boundaries in speech perception.

Concentrations of heavy metals in American woodcock harvested in Connecticut.

PubMed

Hiller, Brian J; Barclay, John S

2011-01-01

The American woodcock is an important migratory species to both consumptive and nonconsumptive users throughout the species range. Woodcock populations have been declining steadily since surveys began in 1968. Laboratory and field studies have demonstrated several adverse effects associated with metals in other species, which has led to their inclusion as potential contributing factors to the woodcock population decline. We investigated the concentrations of arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), mercury (Hg), lead (Pb), and selenium (Se) in pectoral muscle (n = 100), livers (n = 108), and kidneys (n = 104) and Pb in wing bones (n = 53) from woodcock harvested in Connecticut. Cd concentrations were elevated in 99% of woodcock livers and kidneys; 30% of kidneys were above 100 μg/g dry weight, a Cd level of reported adverse tissue and reproductive effects in other species. Hg and Cr concentrations were below current biologically significant thresholds. Asc, Pb, and Se in soft tissues were associated with lead shot use in collection. Se in 24% of livers was above 10 μg/g dry weight, the reported threshold for avian health. Wing-bone Pb was elevated above 20 μg/g in 61% of adults and 23% of juveniles examined. Our findings indicate that woodcock are being exposed to potentially damaging levels of at least two metals with known effects in other species.

Why Does Threshold Level Change in Transcranial Motor-evoked Potentials During Surgery for Supratentorial Lesions?

PubMed

Abboud, Tammam; Huckhagel, Torge; Stork, Jan-Henrich; Hamel, Wolfgang; Schwarz, Cindy; Vettorazzi, Eik; Westphal, Manfred; Martens, Tobias

2017-10-01

Rising threshold level during monitoring of motor-evoked potentials (MEP) using transcranial electrical stimulation (TES) has been described without damage to the motor pathway in the cranial surgery, suggesting the need for monitoring of affected and unaffected hemisphere. We aimed to determine the factors that lead to a change in threshold level and to establish reliable criteria for adjusting stimulation intensity during surgery for supratentorial lesions. Between October 2014 and October 2015, TES-MEP were performed in 143 patients during surgery for unilateral supratentorial lesions in motor-eloquent brain areas. All procedures were performed under general anesthesia using a strict protocol to maintain stable blood pressure. MEP were evaluated bilaterally to assess the percentage increase in threshold level, which was considered significant if it exceeded 20% on the contralateral side beyond the percentage increase on the ipsilateral side. Patients who developed a postoperative motor deficit were excluded. Volume of subdural air was measured on postoperative magnetic resonance imaging. Logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with the intraoperative recorded changes in threshold level. A total of 123 patients were included in the study. On the affected side, 82 patients (66.7%) showed an increase in threshold level, which ranged from 2% to 48% and 41 patients (33.3%) did not show any change. The difference to the unaffected side was under 20% in all patients. The recorded range of changes in the systolic and mean pressure did not exceed 20 mm Hg in any of the patients. Pneumocephalus was detected on postoperative magnetic resonance imaging scans in 87 patients (70.7%) and 81 of them (93.1%) had an intraoperative increase in threshold level on either sides. Pneumocephalus was the only factor associated with an increase in threshold level on the affected side (P<0.001), while each of pneumocephalus and length of the procedure correlated with a change in threshold level on the unaffected side (P<0.001 and 0.032, respectively). Pneumocephalus was the only factor associated with increase in threshold level during MEP monitoring without damaging motor pathway. Threshold level on the affected side can rise up to 48% without being predictive of postoperative paresis, as long as the difference between the increased threshold of the affected and unaffected side is within 20%. Changes in systolic or mean blood pressure within a range of 20 mm Hg do not seem to influence intraoperative MEP.

Which type of leader do I support in step-level public good dilemmas? The roles of level of threshold and trust.

PubMed

De Cremer, David

2007-02-01

The present research examined the moderating effect of the level of threshold on people's preferences for different leader types in step-level public good dilemmas. It was assumed that the primary focus of people in step-level public good dilemmas is to make sure that the group surpasses the threshold. Consequently, when the level of threshold is difficult to reach people are expected to provide more support for and cooperate with a leader that monitors and controls the contributions made toward the public good. However, if the threshold is easy to surpass people will focus more on whether the obtained public good or bonus will be distributed according to agreements, suggesting that people will provide more support to and cooperate with a leader that monitors and controls the distribution of the bonus. These predictions were confirmed across two experiments using a step-level public good paradigm with a dichotomous (Study 1) and a continuous (Study 2) contribution choice. Moreover, the results also revealed that perceptions of trust accounted, in part, for the effect of level of threshold on people's leadership preferences.

Study on polychlorobiphenyl serum levels in French consumers of freshwater fish.

PubMed

Desvignes, Virginie; Volatier, Jean-Luc; de Bels, Frédéric; Zeghnoun, Abdelkrim; Favrot, Marie-Christine; Marchand, Philippe; Le Bizec, Bruno; Rivière, Gilles; Leblanc, Jean-Charles; Merlo, Mathilde

2015-02-01

Polychlorobiphenyls (PCBs) are persistent pollutants that are widespread in the environment and in foodstuffs, particularly in freshwater fish, which frequently exceed the maximum levels set by European regulations. First, we describe the consumption of freshwater fish and serum PCB levels in French anglers, a population expected to have the highest level of dietary PCB exposure. Second, we investigated whether there is a statistical relationship between serum PCB levels and the angler consumption of freshwater fish with high PCB bioaccumulation potential (PCB-BP(+) freshwater fish) in order to make recommendations with regard to safe consumption of freshwater fish. We conducted a survey of anglers from six sites with contrasting PCB contamination levels. The survey included a food consumption frequency questionnaire and blood samples were taken to assess serum PCB levels. We used a regression model to determine the main factors contributing to serum PCB levels. Consumption of PCB-BP(+) freshwater fish was relatively infrequent. Serum PCB levels of the study population and of women of childbearing age were in the same range as those observed in the French population and in neighbouring European countries, but higher than in the North American population. The two factors with the highest positive association with serum PCB levels were age (R(2)=61%) and the consumption of PCB-BP(+) freshwater fish (R(2)=2%). Using the regression model, we calculated, for several scenarios depending on the age and gender of the population, the maximum annual frequencies for PCB-BP(+) freshwater fish consumption that do not exceed the critical body burden threshold. Following the results of this study, the French agency for food, environmental and occupational health and safety (ANSES) issued an opinion and recommended some specific maximum freshwater fish consumption frequencies to protect the French general population. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Establishing a beachhead: A stochastic population model with an Allee effect applied to species invasion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackleh, A.S.; Allen, L.J.S.; Carter, J.

2007-01-01

We formulated a spatially explicit stochastic population model with an Allee effect in order to explore how invasive species may become established. In our model, we varied the degree of migration between local populations and used an Allee effect with variable birth and death rates. Because of the stochastic component, population sizes below the Allee effect threshold may still have a positive probability for successful invasion. The larger the network of populations, the greater the probability of an invasion occurring when initial population sizes are close to or above the Allee threshold. Furthermore, if migration rates are low, one or more than one patch may be successfully invaded, while if migration rates are high all patches are invaded. ?? 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Is blood pressure reduction a valid surrogate endpoint for stroke prevention? an analysis incorporating a systematic review of randomised controlled trials, a by-trial weighted errors-in-variables regression, the surrogate threshold effect (STE) and the biomarker-surrogacy (BioSurrogate) evaluation schema (BSES)

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Blood pressure is considered to be a leading example of a valid surrogate endpoint. The aims of this study were to (i) formally evaluate systolic and diastolic blood pressure reduction as a surrogate endpoint for stroke prevention and (ii) determine what blood pressure reduction would predict a stroke benefit. Methods We identified randomised trials of at least six months duration comparing any pharmacologic anti-hypertensive treatment to placebo or no treatment, and reporting baseline blood pressure, on-trial blood pressure, and fatal and non-fatal stroke. Trials with fewer than five strokes in at least one arm were excluded. Errors-in-variables weighted least squares regression modelled the reduction in stroke as a function of systolic blood pressure reduction and diastolic blood pressure reduction respectively. The lower 95% prediction band was used to determine the minimum systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure difference, the surrogate threshold effect (STE), below which there would be no predicted stroke benefit. The STE was used to generate the surrogate threshold effect proportion (STEP), a surrogacy metric, which with the R-squared trial-level association was used to evaluate blood pressure as a surrogate endpoint for stroke using the Biomarker-Surrogacy Evaluation Schema (BSES3). Results In 18 qualifying trials representing all pharmacologic drug classes of antihypertensives, assuming a reliability coefficient of 0.9, the surrogate threshold effect for a stroke benefit was 7.1 mmHg for systolic blood pressure and 2.4 mmHg for diastolic blood pressure. The trial-level association was 0.41 and 0.64 and the STEP was 66% and 78% for systolic and diastolic blood pressure respectively. The STE and STEP were more robust to measurement error in the independent variable than R-squared trial-level associations. Using the BSES3, assuming a reliability coefficient of 0.9, systolic blood pressure was a B + grade and diastolic blood pressure was an A grade surrogate endpoint for stroke prevention. In comparison, using the same stroke data sets, no STEs could be estimated for cardiovascular (CV) mortality or all-cause mortality reduction, although the STE for CV mortality approached 25 mmHg for systolic blood pressure. Conclusions In this report we provide the first surrogate threshold effect (STE) values for systolic and diastolic blood pressure. We suggest the STEs have face and content validity, evidenced by the inclusivity of trial populations, subject populations and pharmacologic intervention populations in their calculation. We propose that the STE and STEP metrics offer another method of evaluating the evidence supporting surrogate endpoints. We demonstrate how surrogacy evaluations are strengthened if formally evaluated within specific-context evaluation frameworks using the Biomarker- Surrogate Evaluation Schema (BSES3), and we discuss the implications of our evaluation of blood pressure on other biomarkers and patient-reported instruments in relation to surrogacy metrics and trial design. PMID:22409774

The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot.

PubMed

Milne, Robyn; Cunningham, Susan J; Lee, Alan T K; Smit, Ben

2015-01-01

We investigated whether observed avian range contractions and population declines in the Fynbos biome of South Africa were mechanistically linked to recent climate warming. We aimed to determine whether there were correlations between preferred temperature envelope, or changes in temperature within species' ranges, and recent changes in range and population size, for 12 Fynbos-resident bird species, including six that are endemic to the biome. We then measured the physiological responses of each species at air temperatures ranging from 24 to 42°C to determine whether physiological thermal thresholds could provide a mechanistic explanation for observed population trends. Our data show that Fynbos-endemic species occupying the coolest regions experienced the greatest recent reductions in range and population size (>30% range reduction between 1991 and the present). In addition, species experiencing the largest increases in air temperature within their ranges showed the greatest declines. However, evidence for a physiological mechanistic link between warming and population declines was equivocal, with only the larger species showing low thermal thresholds for their body mass, compared with other birds globally. In addition, some species appear more vulnerable than others to air temperatures in their ranges above physiological thermal thresholds. Of these, the high-altitude specialist Cape rockjumper (Chaetops frenatus) seems most at risk from climate warming. This species showed: (i) the lowest threshold for increasing evaporative water loss at high temperatures; and (ii) population declines specifically in those regions of its range recording significant warming trends. Our findings suggest that caution must be taken when attributing causality explicitly to thermal stress, even when population trends are clearly correlated with rates of warming. Studies explicitly investigating the mechanisms underlying such correlations will be key to appropriate conservation planning.

The role of thermal physiology in recent declines of birds in a biodiversity hotspot

PubMed Central

Milne, Robyn; Cunningham, Susan J; Lee, Alan T K

2015-01-01

Abstract We investigated whether observed avian range contractions and population declines in the Fynbos biome of South Africa were mechanistically linked to recent climate warming. We aimed to determine whether there were correlations between preferred temperature envelope, or changes in temperature within species' ranges, and recent changes in range and population size, for 12 Fynbos-resident bird species, including six that are endemic to the biome. We then measured the physiological responses of each species at air temperatures ranging from 24 to 42°C to determine whether physiological thermal thresholds could provide a mechanistic explanation for observed population trends. Our data show that Fynbos-endemic species occupying the coolest regions experienced the greatest recent reductions in range and population size (>30% range reduction between 1991 and the present). In addition, species experiencing the largest increases in air temperature within their ranges showed the greatest declines. However, evidence for a physiological mechanistic link between warming and population declines was equivocal, with only the larger species showing low thermal thresholds for their body mass, compared with other birds globally. In addition, some species appear more vulnerable than others to air temperatures in their ranges above physiological thermal thresholds. Of these, the high-altitude specialist Cape rockjumper (Chaetops frenatus) seems most at risk from climate warming. This species showed: (i) the lowest threshold for increasing evaporative water loss at high temperatures; and (ii) population declines specifically in those regions of its range recording significant warming trends. Our findings suggest that caution must be taken when attributing causality explicitly to thermal stress, even when population trends are clearly correlated with rates of warming. Studies explicitly investigating the mechanisms underlying such correlations will be key to appropriate conservation planning. PMID:27293732

Major Depressive Disorder with Sub-threshold Bipolarity in the National Comorbidity Survey Replication

PubMed Central

Angst, Jules; Cui, Lihong; Swendsen, J. Joel; Rothen, S.; Cravchik, Anibal; Kessler, Ronald; Merikangas, Kathleen

2011-01-01

Objectives There is growing clinical and epidemiologic evidence indicating that major mood disorders form a spectrum from Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) to pure mania. The present investigation examined the prevalence and clinical correlates of MDD with sub-threshold bipolarity vs. pure MDD in the National Comorbidity Survey Replication (NCS-R). Methods The NCS-R is a nationally representative face-to-face household survey of the U.S. population conducted between February, 2001 and April, 2003. Lifetime history of mood disorders, symptoms and clinical indicators of severity were collected using version 3.0 of the WHO Composite International Diagnostic Interview, a fully structured lay-administered diagnostic interview. Results Nearly 40% of study participants with a history of major depressive disorder had a history of sub-threshold hypomania. This subgroup had a younger age of disorder onset, more episodes of depression, and higher rates of comorbidity than those without a history of hypomania, and lower levels of clinical severity than those with bipolar II disorder. Conclusions The findings demonstrate heterogeneity of major depressive disorder and support the validity of inclusion of sub-threshold mania in the diagnostic classification. The broadening of criteria for bipolar disorder would have important implications for research and clinical practice. PMID:20713498

Immune Tolerance Maintained by Cooperative Interactions between T Cells and Antigen Presenting Cells Shapes a Diverse TCR Repertoire

PubMed Central

Best, Katharine; Chain, Benny; Watkins, Chris

2015-01-01

The T cell population in an individual needs to avoid harmful activation by self peptides while maintaining the ability to respond to an unknown set of foreign peptides. This property is acquired by a combination of thymic and extra-thymic mechanisms. We extend current models for the development of self/non-self discrimination to consider the acquisition of self-tolerance as an emergent system level property of the overall T cell receptor repertoire. We propose that tolerance is established at the level of the antigen presenting cell/T cell cluster, which facilitates and integrates cooperative interactions between T cells of different specificities. The threshold for self-reactivity is therefore imposed at a population level, and not at the level of the individual T cell/antigen encounter. Mathematically, the model can be formulated as a linear programing optimization problem that can be implemented as a multiplicative update algorithm, which shows a rapid convergence to a stable state. The model constrains self-reactivity within a predefined threshold, but maintains repertoire diversity and cross reactivity which are key characteristics of human T cell immunity. We show further that the size of individual clones in the model repertoire becomes heterogeneous, and that new clones can establish themselves even when the repertoire has stabilized. Our study combines the salient features of the “danger” model of self/non-self discrimination with the concepts of quorum sensing, and extends repertoire generation models to encompass the establishment of tolerance. Furthermore, the dynamic and continuous repertoire reshaping, which underlies tolerance in this model, suggests opportunities for therapeutic intervention to achieve long-term tolerance following transplantation. PMID:26300880

The relationships between sex hormones and sexual function in middle-aged and older European men.

PubMed

O'Connor, Daryl B; Lee, David M; Corona, Giovanni; Forti, Gianni; Tajar, Abdelouahid; O'Neill, Terence W; Pendleton, Neil; Bartfai, Gyorgy; Boonen, Steven; Casanueva, Felipe F; Finn, Joseph D; Giwercman, Aleksander; Han, Thang S; Huhtaniemi, Ilpo T; Kula, Krzysztof; Labrie, Fernand; Lean, Michael E J; Punab, Margus; Silman, Alan J; Vanderschueren, Dirk; Wu, Frederick C W

2011-10-01

Limited data are available exploring the associations between sex hormones, multiple domains of sexual functioning, and sexual function-related distress in nonpatient samples in Europe. The aim of the study was to investigate the relationships between serum testosterone (T), estradiol (E2), and dihydrotestosterone (DHT) and sexual function in a multicenter population-based study of aging in men. Using stratified random sampling, 2838 men aged 40-79 yr completed the European Male Ageing Study-Sexual Function Questionnaire and provided a blood sample for hormone measurements. T, E2, and DHT were measured using gas chromatography-mass spectrometry. We conducted a community-based population survey in eight European centers. Self-reported sexual function (overall sexual function, sexual function-related distress, erectile dysfunction, masturbation) was measured. Total and free T, but not E2 or DHT, was associated with overall sexual function in middle-aged and older men. E2 was the only hormone associated with sexual function-related distress such that higher levels were related to greater distress. Free T levels were associated with masturbation frequency and erectile dysfunction in the fully adjusted models, such that higher T was associated with less dysfunction and greater frequency. Moreover, there was a T threshold for the relationship between total T, sexual function, and erectile dysfunction. At T concentrations of 8 nmol/liter or less, T was associated with worse sexual functioning, whereas at T levels over 8 nmol/liter, the relationship came to a plateau. These findings suggest that different hormonal mechanisms may regulate sexual functioning (T) vs. the psychological aspects (E2) of male sexual behavior. Moreover, there was a T threshold for overall sexual function such that at levels greater than 8 nmol/liter the relationship between T and sexual function did not become stronger.

Estimating Allee dynamics before they can be observed: polar bears as a case study.

PubMed

Molnár, Péter K; Lewis, Mark A; Derocher, Andrew E

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species.

Estimating Allee Dynamics before They Can Be Observed: Polar Bears as a Case Study

PubMed Central

Molnár, Péter K.; Lewis, Mark A.; Derocher, Andrew E.

2014-01-01

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species. PMID:24427306

Pulse Wave Velocity as Marker of Preclinical Arterial Disease: Reference Levels in a Uruguayan Population Considering Wave Detection Algorithms, Path Lengths, Aging, and Blood Pressure

PubMed Central

Farro, Ignacio; Bia, Daniel; Zócalo, Yanina; Torrado, Juan; Farro, Federico; Florio, Lucía; Olascoaga, Alicia; Alallón, Walter; Lluberas, Ricardo; Armentano, Ricardo L.

2012-01-01

Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity (PWV) has emerged as the gold standard for non-invasive evaluation of aortic stiffness; absence of standardized methodologies of study and lack of normal and reference values have limited a wider clinical implementation. This work was carried out in a Uruguayan (South American) population in order to characterize normal, reference, and threshold levels of PWV considering normal age-related changes in PWV and the prevailing blood pressure level during the study. A conservative approach was used, and we excluded symptomatic subjects; subjects with history of cardiovascular (CV) disease, diabetes mellitus or renal failure; subjects with traditional CV risk factors (other than age and gender); asymptomatic subjects with atherosclerotic plaques in carotid arteries; patients taking anti-hypertensives or lipid-lowering medications. The included subjects (n = 429) were categorized according to the age decade and the blood pressure levels (at study time). All subjects represented the “reference population”; the group of subjects with optimal/normal blood pressures levels at study time represented the “normal population.” Results. Normal and reference PWV levels were obtained. Differences in PWV levels and aging-associated changes were obtained. The obtained data could be used to define vascular aging and abnormal or disease-related arterial changes. PMID:22666551

One-prey two-predator model with prey harvesting in a food chain interaction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sayekti, I. M.; Malik, M.; Aldila, D.

2017-07-01

The interaction between prey, secondary predator, and primary predator as a mathematical model of the one-prey and two-predator system with constant harvesting in prey population will be introduced in this article. Their interaction might describe as a food pyramid, with the preys is in the lowest level of the pyramid, secondary predators in the middle, and primary predators in the top of the pyramid. Human intervention to controlling prey population is needed and will be analyzed how this will effect on the existence of secondary predator and primary predator population. Equilibrium points and their existence criteria will be analyzed to find a threshold that will guarantee the coexistence of this system. Some numerical simulation will be given to illustrate the analytical results. We find that as long as harvesting rate in prey population is smaller than prey intrinsic growth rate, coexistence might achieve.

Is there a threshold concentration of cat allergen exposure on respiratory symptoms in adults?

PubMed

Chen, Chih-Mei; Thiering, Elisabeth; Zock, Jan-Paul; Villani, Simona; Olivieri, Mario; Modig, Lars; Jarvis, Deborah; Norbäck, Dan; Verlato, Giuseppe; Heinrich, Joachim

2015-01-01

Cat allergen concentrations higher than 8 μg/g in settled house dust, have been suggested to provoke exacerbation of allergic respiratory symptoms. However, whether the 8 μg/g of indoor cat allergen concentration is indeed the minimal exposure required for triggering the asthma related respiratory symptoms or the development of sensitization has not yet been confirmed. We studied the associations between domestic cat allergen concentrations and allergic symptoms in the European Community Respiratory Health Survey II, with the aim of confirming this suggested threshold. Cat allergen concentrations were measured in the mattress dust of 3003 participants from 22 study centres. Levels of specific immunoglobulin E to cat allergens were measured in serum samples using an immunoassay. Information on allergic symptoms, medication use, home environment and smoking was obtained from a face-to-face interview. Domestic cat allergen concentrations were not associated with allergic/ asthmatic symptoms in the entire study population, nor in the subset sensitized to cat allergen. We also found no association among individuals exposed to concentrations higher than 8 μg/g. However, exposure to medium cat allergen concentrations (0.24-0.63 μg/g) was positively associated with reported asthmatic respiratory symptoms in subjects who have experienced allergic symptoms when near animals. The proposed 8 μg/g threshold of cat allergen concentrations for the exacerbation of allergic/ respiratory symptoms was not confirmed in a general European adult population. Potential biases attributable to avoidance behaviours and an imprecise exposure assessment cannot be excluded.

The Relationship between the Behavioral Hearing Thresholds and Maximum Bilirubin Levels at Birth in Children with a History of Neonatal Hyperbilirubinemia

PubMed Central

Panahi, Rasool; Jafari, Zahra; Sheibanizade, Abdoreza; Salehi, Masoud; Esteghamati, Abdoreza; Hasani, Sara

2013-01-01

Introduction: Neonatal hyperbilirubinemia is one of the most important factors affecting the auditory system and can cause sensorineural hearing loss. This study investigated the relationship between behavioral hearing thresholds in children with a history of jaundice and the maximum level of bilirubin concentration in the blood. Materials and Methods: This study was performed on 18 children with a mean age of 5.6 years and with a history of neonatal hyperbilirubinemia. Behavioral hearing thresholds, transient evoked emissions and brainstem evoked responses were evaluated in all children. Results: Six children (33.3%) had normal hearing thresholds and the remaining (66.7%) had some degree of hearing loss. There was no significant relationship (r=-0.28, P=0.09) between the mean total bilirubin levels and behavioral hearing thresholds in all samples. A transient evoked emission was seen only in children with normal hearing thresholds however in eight cases brainstem evoked responses had not detected. Conclusion: Increased blood levels of bilirubin at the neonatal period were potentially one of the causes of hearing loss. There was a lack of a direct relationship between neonatal bilirubin levels and the average hearing thresholds which emphasizes on the necessity of monitoring the various amounts of bilirubin levels. PMID:24303432

Reduced utility of serum IGF-1 levels in predicting retinopathy of prematurity reflects maternal ethnicity.

PubMed

Reddy, M Ashwin; Patel, Himanshu I; Karim, Shah M; Lock, Helen; Perry, Leslie; Bunce, Catey; Kempley, Steve; Sinha, Ajay K

2016-04-01

To validate known risk factors and identify a threshold level for serum insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1) in the development of severe retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) in an ethnically diverse population at a tertiary neonatal unit, 2011-2013. A prospective cohort masked study was conducted. Serum IGF-1 levels at 31, 32 and 33 weeks were measured and risk factor data collected including gestational age (GA), birth weight (BW), absolute weight gain (AWG) and maternal ethnicity. The eventual ROP outcome was divided into two groups: minimal ROP (Stages 0 and 1) and severe ROP (Stage 2 or worse including Type 1 ROP). 36 patients were recruited: 14 had minimal ROP and 22 severe ROP. Significant differences between the groups were found in GA, BW, AWG and IGF-1 at 32 and 33 weeks. There was minimal rise in IGF-1 in Stage 2 patients and/or black patients (p=0.0013) between 32 and 33 weeks but no pragmatic threshold level of IGF-1 that could distinguish between minimal or severe ROP. There were significant differences in GA, BW, AWG and IGF-1 at 32 and 33 weeks between those babies with severe ROP and those with minimal ROP. However, there was no threshold level of IGF-1 at a time point between 31 and 33 weeks that can be used to exclude a large proportion of babies from screening. We also found ethnic differences in IGF-1 levels with infants born to black mothers having significantly lower IGF-1 levels at 32 and 33 weeks gestation. The determination of ROP risk using IGF-1 is a race-specific phenomenon. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Temporal control of bidirectional lipid-droplet motion in Drosophila depends on the ratio of kinesin-1 and its co-factor Halo

PubMed Central

Arora, Gurpreet K.; Tran, Susan L.; Rizzo, Nicholas; Jain, Ankit; Welte, Michael A.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT During bidirectional transport, individual cargoes move continuously back and forth along microtubule tracks, yet the cargo population overall displays directed net transport. How such transport is controlled temporally is not well understood. We analyzed this issue for bidirectionally moving lipid droplets in Drosophila embryos, a system in which net transport direction is developmentally controlled. By quantifying how the droplet distribution changes as embryos develop, we characterize temporal transitions in net droplet transport and identify the crucial contribution of the previously identified, but poorly characterized, transacting regulator Halo. In particular, we find that Halo is transiently expressed; rising and falling Halo levels control the switches in global distribution. Rising Halo levels have to pass a threshold before net plus-end transport is initiated. This threshold level depends on the amount of the motor kinesin-1: the more kinesin-1 is present, the more Halo is needed before net plus-end transport commences. Because Halo and kinesin-1 are present in common protein complexes, we propose that Halo acts as a rate-limiting co-factor of kinesin-1. PMID:26906417

Comparison of image segmentation of lungs using methods: connected threshold, neighborhood connected, and threshold level set segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amanda, A. R.; Widita, R.

2016-03-01

The aim of this research is to compare some image segmentation methods for lungs based on performance evaluation parameter (Mean Square Error (MSE) and Peak Signal Noise to Ratio (PSNR)). In this study, the methods compared were connected threshold, neighborhood connected, and the threshold level set segmentation on the image of the lungs. These three methods require one important parameter, i.e the threshold. The threshold interval was obtained from the histogram of the original image. The software used to segment the image here was InsightToolkit-4.7.0 (ITK). This research used 5 lung images to be analyzed. Then, the results were compared using the performance evaluation parameter determined by using MATLAB. The segmentation method is said to have a good quality if it has the smallest MSE value and the highest PSNR. The results show that four sample images match the criteria of connected threshold, while one sample refers to the threshold level set segmentation. Therefore, it can be concluded that connected threshold method is better than the other two methods for these cases.

Safety limit warning levels for the avoidance of excessive sound amplification to protect against further hearing loss.

PubMed

Johnson, Earl E

2017-11-01

To determine safe output sound pressure levels (SPL) for sound amplification devices to preserve hearing sensitivity after usage. A mathematical model consisting of the Modified Power Law (MPL) (Humes & Jesteadt, 1991 ) combined with equations for predicting temporary threshold shift (TTS) and subsequent permanent threshold shift (PTS) (Macrae, 1994b ) was used to determine safe output SPL. The study involves no new human subject measurements of loudness tolerance or threshold shifts. PTS was determined by the MPL model for 234 audiograms and the SPL output recommended by four different validated prescription recommendations for hearing aids. PTS can, on rare occasion, occur as a result of SPL delivered by hearing aids at modern day prescription recommendations. The trading relationship of safe output SPL, decibel hearing level (dB HL) threshold, and PTS was captured with algebraic expressions. Better hearing thresholds lowered the safe output SPL and higher thresholds raised the safe output SPL. Safe output SPL can consider the magnitude of unaided hearing loss. For devices not set to prescriptive levels, limiting the output SPL below the safe levels identified should protect against threshold worsening as a result of long-term usage.

Underwater temporary threshold shift in pinnipeds: effects of noise level and duration.

PubMed

Kastak, David; Southall, Brandon L; Schusterman, Ronald J; Kastak, Colleen Reichmuth

2005-11-01

Behavioral psychophysical techniques were used to evaluate the residual effects of underwater noise on the hearing sensitivity of three pinnipeds: a California sea lion (Zalophus californianus), a harbor seal (Phoca vitulina), and a northern elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris). Temporary threshold shift (TTS), defined as the difference between auditory thresholds obtained before and after noise exposure, was assessed. The subjects were exposed to octave-band noise centered at 2500 Hz at two sound pressure levels: 80 and 95 dB SL (re: auditory threshold at 2500 Hz). Noise exposure durations were 22, 25, and 50 min. Threshold shifts were assessed at 2500 and 3530 Hz. Mean threshold shifts ranged from 2.9-12.2 dB. Full recovery of auditory sensitivity occurred within 24 h of noise exposure. Control sequences, comprising sham noise exposures, did not result in significant mean threshold shifts for any subject. Threshold shift magnitudes increased with increasing noise sound exposure level (SEL) for two of the three subjects. The results underscore the importance of including sound exposure metrics (incorporating sound pressure level and exposure duration) in order to fully assess the effects of noise on marine mammal hearing.

Density thresholds for Mopeia virus invasion and persistence in its host Mastomys natalensis.

PubMed

Goyens, J; Reijniers, J; Borremans, B; Leirs, H

2013-01-21

Well-established theoretical models predict host density thresholds for invasion and persistence of parasites with a density-dependent transmission. Studying such thresholds in reality, however, is not obvious because it requires long-term data for several fluctuating populations of different size. We developed a spatially explicit and individual-based SEIR model of Mopeia virus in multimammate mice Mastomys natalensis. This is an interesting model system for studying abundance thresholds because the host is the most common African rodent, populations fluctuate considerably and the virus is closely related to Lassa virus but non-pathogenic to humans so can be studied safely in the field. The simulations show that, while host density clearly is important, sharp thresholds are only to be expected for persistence (and not for invasion), since at short time-spans (as during invasion), stochasticity is determining. Besides host density, also the spatial extent of the host population is important. We observe the repeated local occurrence of herd immunity, leading to a decrease in transmission of the virus, while even a limited amount of dispersal can have a strong influence in spreading and re-igniting the transmission. The model is most sensitive to the duration of the infectious stage, the size of the home range and the transmission coefficient, so these are important factors to determine experimentally in the future. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of Johnson et al.'s speciation threshold model to apparent colonization times of island biotas.

PubMed

Ricklefs, Robert E; Bermingham, Eldredge

2004-08-01

Understanding patterns of diversity can be furthered by analysis of the dynamics of colonization, speciation, and extinction on islands using historical information provided by molecular phylogeography. The land birds of the Lesser Antilles are one of the most thoroughly described regional faunas in this context. In an analysis of colonization times, Ricklefs and Bermingham (2001) found that the cumulative distribution of lineages with respect to increasing time since colonization exhibits a striking change in slope at a genetic distance of about 2% mitochondrial DNA sequence divergence (about one million years). They further showed how this heterogeneity could be explained by either an abrupt increase in colonization rates or a mass extinction event. Cherry et al. (2002), referring to a model developed by Johnson et al. (2000), argued instead that the pattern resulted from a speciation threshold for reproductive isolation of island populations from their continental source populations. Prior to this threshold, genetic divergence is slowed by migration from the source, and species of varying age accumulate at a low genetic distance. After the threshold is reached, source and island populations diverge more rapidly, creating heterogeneity in the distribution of apparent ages of island taxa. We simulated of Johnson et al.'s speciation-threshold model, incorporating genetic divergence at rate k and fixation at rate M of genes that have migrated between the source and the island population. Fixation resets the divergence clock to zero. The speciation-threshold model fits the distribution of divergence times of Lesser Antillean birds well with biologically plausible parameter estimates. Application of the model to the Hawaiian avifauna, which does not exhibit marked heterogeneity of genetic divergence, and the West Indian herpetofauna, which does, required unreasonably high migration-fixation rates, several orders of magnitude greater than the colonization rate. However, the plausibility of the speciation-divergence model for Lesser Antillean birds emphasizes the importance of further investigation of historical biogeography on a regional scale for whole biotas, as well as the migration of genes between populations on long time scales and the achievement of reproductive isolation.

Neues "Francais fondamental?" Das Europa-Projekt "Un niveau seuil." (A New "Francais fondamental?" The European Project "A Threshold Level").

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raasch, Albert

1978-01-01

The project "Threshold Level," initiated by the Council of Europe in 1976, is compared with "Francais fondamental," comparing their aims and their differences. Offered as an interim statement, the article leaves open the question of whether Francais fondamental should be replaced by the the Threshold Level. (IFS/WGA)

Reliability of the method of levels for determining cutaneous temperature sensitivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakovljević, Miroljub; Mekjavić, Igor B.

2012-09-01

Determination of the thermal thresholds is used clinically for evaluation of peripheral nervous system function. The aim of this study was to evaluate reliability of the method of levels performed with a new, low cost device for determining cutaneous temperature sensitivity. Nineteen male subjects were included in the study. Thermal thresholds were tested on the right side at the volar surface of mid-forearm, lateral surface of mid-upper arm and front area of mid-thigh. Thermal testing was carried out by the method of levels with an initial temperature step of 2°C. Variability of thermal thresholds was expressed by means of the ratio between the second and the first testing, coefficient of variation (CV), coefficient of repeatability (CR), intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), mean difference between sessions (S1-S2diff), standard error of measurement (SEM) and minimally detectable change (MDC). There were no statistically significant changes between sessions for warm or cold thresholds, or between warm and cold thresholds. Within-subject CVs were acceptable. The CR estimates for warm thresholds ranged from 0.74°C to 1.06°C and from 0.67°C to 1.07°C for cold thresholds. The ICC values for intra-rater reliability ranged from 0.41 to 0.72 for warm thresholds and from 0.67 to 0.84 for cold thresholds. S1-S2diff ranged from -0.15°C to 0.07°C for warm thresholds, and from -0.08°C to 0.07°C for cold thresholds. SEM ranged from 0.26°C to 0.38°C for warm thresholds, and from 0.23°C to 0.38°C for cold thresholds. Estimated MDC values were between 0.60°C and 0.88°C for warm thresholds, and 0.53°C and 0.88°C for cold thresholds. The method of levels for determining cutaneous temperature sensitivity has acceptable reliability.

An adaptive design for updating the threshold value of a continuous biomarker.

PubMed

Spencer, Amy V; Harbron, Chris; Mander, Adrian; Wason, James; Peers, Ian

2016-11-30

Potential predictive biomarkers are often measured on a continuous scale, but in practice, a threshold value to divide the patient population into biomarker 'positive' and 'negative' is desirable. Early phase clinical trials are increasingly using biomarkers for patient selection, but at this stage, it is likely that little will be known about the relationship between the biomarker and the treatment outcome. We describe a single-arm trial design with adaptive enrichment, which can increase power to demonstrate efficacy within a patient subpopulation, the parameters of which are also estimated. Our design enables us to learn about the biomarker and optimally adjust the threshold during the study, using a combination of generalised linear modelling and Bayesian prediction. At the final analysis, a binomial exact test is carried out, allowing the hypothesis that 'no population subset exists in which the novel treatment has a desirable response rate' to be tested. Through extensive simulations, we are able to show increased power over fixed threshold methods in many situations without increasing the type-I error rate. We also show that estimates of the threshold, which defines the population subset, are unbiased and often more precise than those from fixed threshold studies. We provide an example of the method applied (retrospectively) to publically available data from a study of the use of tamoxifen after mastectomy by the German Breast Study Group, where progesterone receptor is the biomarker of interest. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Taste sensitivity for monosodium glutamate and an increased liking of dietary protein.

PubMed

Luscombe-Marsh, Natalie D; Smeets, Astrid J P G; Westerterp-Plantenga, Margriet S

2008-04-01

The aim of the present study was to determine individuals' taste threshold for monosodium glutamate (MSG) alone and in combination with inosine 5'-monophosphate (IMP-5) and to examine if this threshold was related to an increase in sensory properties (including pleasantness of taste) and/or to one's preference for dietary protein over carbohydrate and fat. Using the triangle tasting method, the taste threshold was determined for thirty-six women and twenty-four men. Thresholds varied from zero to infinite as determined using a clear soup with added MSG in the concentration range of 0.1 to 0.8 % (w/w) MSG. Subjects rated fourteen sensory properties of the soup and also their 'liking', 'eating frequency' and 'preference' of twenty-two common high-protein, high-carbohydrate and high-fat food items. The taste threshold (and therefore sensitivity) of MSG was lowered from 0.33 (sem 0.24) to 0.26 (sem 0.22) % MSG when 0.25 % (w/w) IMP-5 was added. None of the sensory properties assessed was associated with the taste threshold of MSG +/- 0.25 % IMP-5 in the overall study population. However, the taste descriptor 'meatiness' was associated with the threshold data for individuals who could taste concentrations of

Threshold and subthreshold Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) and suicide ideation.

PubMed

Gilmour, Heather

2016-11-16

Subthreshold Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) has been reported to be at least as prevalent as threshold GAD and of comparable clinical significance. It is not clear if GAD is uniquely associated with the risk of suicide, or if psychiatric comorbidity drives the association. Data from the 2012 Canadian Community Health Survey-Mental Health were used to estimate the prevalence of threshold and subthreshold GAD in the household population aged 15 or older. As well, the relationship between GAD and suicide ideation was studied. Multivariate logistic regression was used in a sample of 24,785 people to identify significant associations, while adjusting for the confounding effects of sociodemographic factors and other mental disorders. In 2012, an estimated 722,000 Canadians aged 15 or older (2.6%) met the criteria for threshold GAD; an additional 2.3% (655,000) had subthreshold GAD. For people with threshold GAD, past 12-month suicide ideation was more prevalent among men than women (32.0% versus 21.2% respectively). In multivariate models that controlled sociodemographic factors, the odds of past 12-month suicide ideation among people with either past 12-month threshold or subthreshold GAD were significantly higher than the odds for those without GAD. When psychiatric comorbidity was also controlled, associations between threshold and subthreshold GAD and suicidal ideation were attenuated, but remained significant. Threshold and subthreshold GAD affect similar percentages of the Canadian household population. This study adds to the literature that has identified an independent association between threshold GAD and suicide ideation, and demonstrates that an association is also apparent for subthreshold GAD.

Thresholds in forest bird occurrence as a function of the amount of early-seral broadleaf forest at landscape scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Betts, M.G.; Hagar, J.C.; Rivers, J.W.; Alexander, J.D.; McGarigal, K.; McComb, B.C.

2010-01-01

Recent declines in broadleaf-dominated, early-seral forest globally as a function of intensive forest management and/or fire suppression have raised concern about the viability of populations dependent on such forest types. However, quantitative information about the strength and direction of species associations with broadleaf cover at landscape scales are rare. Uncovering such habitat relationships is essential for understanding the demography of species and in developing sound conservation strategies. It is particularly important to detect points in habitat reduction where rates of population decline may accelerate or the likelihood of species occurrence drops rapidly (i.e., thresholds). Here, we use a large avian point-count data set (N = 4375) from southwestern and northwestern Oregon along with segmented logistic regression to test for thresholds in forest bird occurrence as a function of broadleaf forest and early-seral broadleaf forest at local (150-m radius) and landscape (500–2000-m radius) scales. All 12 bird species examined showed positive responses to either broadleaf forest in general, and/or early-seral broadleaf forest. However, regional variation in species response to these conditions was high. We found considerable evidence for landscape thresholds in bird species occurrence as a function of broadleaf cover; threshold models received substantially greater support than linear models for eight of 12 species. Landscape thresholds in broadleaf forest ranged broadly from 1.35% to 24.55% mean canopy cover. Early-seral broadleaf thresholds tended to be much lower (0.22–1.87%). We found a strong negative relationship between the strength of species association with early-seral broadleaf forest and 42-year bird population trends; species most associated with this forest type have declined at the greatest rates. Taken together, these results provide the first support for the hypothesis that reductions in broadleaf-dominated early-seral forest due to succession and intensive forest management have led to population declines of constituent species in the Pacific northwestern United States. Forest management treatments that maintain or restore even small amounts of broadleaf vegetation could mitigate further declines.

The Relationship Between Selected Non-Auditory Measures and the Hearing Threshold Levels of an Aviation Noise-Exposed Population.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-02-19

instrumental in the initiation of the "Thousand Aviator Study" and particu- larly to those responsible for the 1963-1965 follow-up. Without the work...in a person’s response to noise exposure. Because of the obvious value of a valid, reliable, and easy-to-administer test of individual noise...their cardio- vascular functioning through physical exercise . And Willson, Chung, Gannon, Roberts, and Mason (29), addressing ths oame general question

Population Dynamics of Belonolaimus longicaudatusin a Cotton Production System

PubMed Central

Crow, W. T.; Weingartner, D. P.; McSorley, R.; Dickson, D. W.

2000-01-01

Belonolaimus longicaudatus is a recognized pathogen of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum), but insufficient information is available on the population dynamics and economic thresholds of B. longicaudatus in cotton production. In this study, data collected from a field in Florida were used to develop models predicting population increases of B. longicaudatus on cotton and population declines under clean fallow. Population densities of B. longicaudatus increased on cotton, reaching a carrying capacity of 139 nematodes/130 cm³ of soil, but decreased exponentially during periods of bare fallow. The model indicated that population densities should decrease each year of monocropped cotton, if an alternate host is not present between sequential cotton crops. Economic thresholds derived from published damage functions and current prices for cotton and nematicides varied from 2 to 5 B. longicaudatus/130 cm³ of soil, depending on the nematicide used. PMID:19270968

Modeling human mobility responses to the large-scale spreading of infectious diseases.

PubMed

Meloni, Sandro; Perra, Nicola; Arenas, Alex; Gómez, Sergio; Moreno, Yamir; Vespignani, Alessandro

2011-01-01

Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of realistic scenarios that include population heterogeneity, social structures, and mobility processes down to the individual level. The advances in the realism of epidemic description call for the explicit modeling of individual behavioral responses to the presence of disease within modeling frameworks. Here we formulate and analyze a metapopulation model that incorporates several scenarios of self-initiated behavioral changes into the mobility patterns of individuals. We find that prevalence-based travel limitations do not alter the epidemic invasion threshold. Strikingly, we observe in both synthetic and data-driven numerical simulations that when travelers decide to avoid locations with high levels of prevalence, this self-initiated behavioral change may enhance disease spreading. Our results point out that the real-time availability of information on the disease and the ensuing behavioral changes in the population may produce a negative impact on disease containment and mitigation.

Salicylate-induced changes in auditory thresholds of adolescent and adult rats.

PubMed

Brennan, J F; Brown, C A; Jastreboff, P J

1996-01-01

Shifts in auditory intensity thresholds after salicylate administration were examined in postweanling and adult pigmented rats at frequencies ranging from 1 to 35 kHz. A total of 132 subjects from both age levels were tested under two-way active avoidance or one-way active avoidance paradigms. Estimated thresholds were inferred from behavioral responses to presentations of descending and ascending series of intensities for each test frequency value. Reliable threshold estimates were found under both avoidance conditioning methods, and compared to controls, subjects at both age levels showed threshold shifts at selective higher frequency values after salicylate injection, and the extent of shifts was related to salicylate dose level.

Mathematical analysis of epidemiological models with heterogeneity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Ark, J.W.

1992-01-01

For many diseases in human populations the disease shows dissimilar characteristics in separate subgroups of the population; for example, the probability of disease transmission for gonorrhea or AIDS is much higher from male to female than from female to male. There is reason to construct and analyze epidemiological models which allow this heterogeneity of population, and to use these models to run computer simulations of the disease to predict the incidence and prevalence of the disease. In the models considered here the heterogeneous population is separated into subpopulations whose internal and external interactions are homogeneous in the sense that eachmore » person in the population can be assumed to have all average actions for the people of that subpopulation. The first model considered is an SIRS models; i.e., the Susceptible can become Infected, and if so he eventually Recovers with temporary immunity, and after a period of time becomes Susceptible again. Special cases allow for permanent immunity or other variations. This model is analyzed and threshold conditions are given which determine whether the disease dies out or persists. A deterministic model is presented; this model is constructed using difference equations, and it has been used in computer simulations for the AIDS epidemic in the homosexual population in San Francisco. The homogeneous version and the heterogeneous version of the differential-equations and difference-equations versions of the deterministic model are analyzed mathematically. In the analysis, equilibria are identified and threshold conditions are set forth for the disease to die out if the disease is below the threshold so that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Above the threshold the disease persists so that the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and there is a unique endemic equilibrium.« less

Three-level sampler having automated thresholds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jurgens, R. F.

1976-01-01

A three-level sampler is described that has its thresholds controlled automatically so as to track changes in the statistics of the random process being sampled. In particular, the mean value is removed and the ratio of the standard deviation of the random process to the threshold is maintained constant. The system is configured in such a manner that slow drifts in the level comparators and digital-to-analog converters are also removed. The ratio of the standard deviation to threshold level may be chosen within the constraints of the ratios of two integers N and M. These may be chosen to minimize the quantizing noise of the sampled process.

Estimation of Potential Population Level Effects of Contaminants on Wildlife

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loar, J.M.

2001-06-11

The objective of this project is to provide DOE with improved methods to assess risks from contaminants to wildlife populations. The current approach for wildlife risk assessment consists of comparison of contaminant exposure estimates for individual animals to literature-derived toxicity test endpoints. These test endpoints are assumed to estimate thresholds for population-level effects. Moreover, species sensitivities to contaminants is one of several criteria to be considered when selecting assessment endpoints (EPA 1997 and 1998), yet data on the sensitivities of many birds and mammals are lacking. The uncertainties associated with this approach are considerable. First, because toxicity data are notmore » available for most potential wildlife endpoint species, extrapolation of toxicity data from test species to the species of interest is required. There is no consensus on the most appropriate extrapolation method. Second, toxicity data are represented as statistical measures (e.g., NOAEL s or LOAELs) that provide no information on the nature or magnitude of effects. The level of effect is an artifact of the replication and dosing regime employed, and does not indicate how effects might increase with increasing exposure. Consequently, slight exceedance of a LOAEL is not distinguished from greatly exceeding it. Third, the relationship of toxic effects on individuals to effects on populations is poorly estimated by existing methods. It is assumed that if the exposure of individuals exceeds levels associated with impaired reproduction, then population level effects are likely. Uncertainty associated with this assumption is large because depending on the reproductive strategy of a given species, comparable levels of reproductive impairment may result in dramatically different population-level responses. This project included several tasks to address these problems: (1) investigation of the validity of the current allometric scaling approach for interspecies extrapolation an d development of new scaling models; (2) development of dose-response models for toxicity data presented in the literature; and (3) development of matrix-based population models that were coupled with dose-response models to provide realistic estimation of population-level effects for individual responses.« less

Income Eligibility Thresholds, Premium Contributions, and Children's Coverage Outcomes: A Study of CHIP Expansions

PubMed Central

Gresenz, Carole Roan; Edgington, Sarah E; Laugesen, Miriam J; Escarce, José J

2013-01-01

Objective To understand the effects of Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) income eligibility thresholds and premium contribution requirements on health insurance coverage outcomes among children. Data Sources 2002–2009 Annual Social and Economic Supplements of the Current Population Survey linked to data from multiple secondary data sources. Study Design We use a selection correction model to simultaneously estimate program eligibility and coverage outcomes conditional upon eligibility. We simulate the effects of three premium schedules representing a range of generosity levels and the effects of income eligibility thresholds ranging from 200 to 400 percent of the federal poverty line. Principal Findings Premium contribution requirements decrease enrollment in public coverage and increase enrollment in private coverage, with larger effects for greater contribution levels. Our simulation results suggest minimal changes in coverage outcomes from eligibility expansions to higher income families under premium schedules that require more than a modest contribution (medium or high schedules). Conclusions Our simulation results are useful counterpoints to previous research that has estimated the average effect of program expansions as they were implemented without disentangling the effects of premiums or other program features. The sensitivity to premiums observed suggests that although contribution requirements may be effective in reducing crowd-out, they also have the potential, depending on the level of contribution required, to nullify the effects of CHIP expansions entirely. The persistence of uninsurance among children under the range of simulated scenarios points to the importance of Affordable Care Act provisions designed to make the process of obtaining coverage transparent and navigable. PMID:23398477

Threshold and Beyond: Modeling The Intensity Dependence of Auditory Responses

PubMed Central

2007-01-01

In many studies of auditory-evoked responses to low-intensity sounds, the response amplitude appears to increase roughly linearly with the sound level in decibels (dB), corresponding to a logarithmic intensity dependence. But the auditory system is assumed to be linear in the low-intensity limit. The goal of this study was to resolve the seeming contradiction. Based on assumptions about the rate-intensity functions of single auditory-nerve fibers and the pattern of cochlear excitation caused by a tone, a model for the gross response of the population of auditory nerve fibers was developed. In accordance with signal detection theory, the model denies the existence of a threshold. This implies that regarding the detection of a significant stimulus-related effect, a reduction in sound intensity can always be compensated for by increasing the measurement time, at least in theory. The model suggests that the gross response is proportional to intensity when the latter is low (range I), and a linear function of sound level at higher intensities (range III). For intensities in between, it is concluded that noisy experimental data may provide seemingly irrefutable evidence of a linear dependence on sound pressure (range II). In view of the small response amplitudes that are to be expected for intensity range I, direct observation of the predicted proportionality with intensity will generally be a challenging task for an experimenter. Although the model was developed for the auditory nerve, the basic conclusions are probably valid for higher levels of the auditory system, too, and might help to improve models for loudness at threshold. PMID:18008105

Income eligibility thresholds, premium contributions, and children's coverage outcomes: a study of CHIP expansions.

PubMed

Gresenz, Carole Roan; Edgington, Sarah E; Laugesen, Miriam J; Escarce, José J

2013-04-01

To understand the effects of Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) income eligibility thresholds and premium contribution requirements on health insurance coverage outcomes among children. 2002-2009 Annual Social and Economic Supplements of the Current Population Survey linked to data from multiple secondary data sources. We use a selection correction model to simultaneously estimate program eligibility and coverage outcomes conditional upon eligibility. We simulate the effects of three premium schedules representing a range of generosity levels and the effects of income eligibility thresholds ranging from 200 to 400 percent of the federal poverty line. Premium contribution requirements decrease enrollment in public coverage and increase enrollment in private coverage, with larger effects for greater contribution levels. Our simulation results suggest minimal changes in coverage outcomes from eligibility expansions to higher income families under premium schedules that require more than a modest contribution (medium or high schedules). Our simulation results are useful counterpoints to previous research that has estimated the average effect of program expansions as they were implemented without disentangling the effects of premiums or other program features. The sensitivity to premiums observed suggests that although contribution requirements may be effective in reducing crowd-out, they also have the potential, depending on the level of contribution required, to nullify the effects of CHIP expansions entirely. The persistence of uninsurance among children under the range of simulated scenarios points to the importance of Affordable Care Act provisions designed to make the process of obtaining coverage transparent and navigable. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Perceived discrimination and health outcomes a gender comparison among Asian-Americans nationwide.

PubMed

Hahm, Hyeouk Chris; Ozonoff, Al; Gaumond, Jillian; Sue, Stanley

2010-09-01

We examined whether similarities and differences exist in the association between perceived discrimination and poor mental and physical health among Asian-American adult women and men. We also tested whether Asian-American women would have a lower perceived discrimination threshold for developing negative health outcomes than Asian-American men. Data were derived from the National Latino and Asian-American Study (2002-2003). A nationally representative sample of Asian-American adults (1,075 women and 972 men) was examined. There were more gender similarities than differences in the strong association between discrimination and health. More prominent gender differences were found for the specific level of discrimination and its potential health effects. Specifically, for both Asian women and men, a high level of perceived discrimination showed stronger associations with mental health than with physical health outcomes. And yet, compared with men, the threshold of discrimination was lower for women in affecting mental and physical health status. The findings underscore that a high level of discrimination was associated with negative mental and physical health outcomes for both women and men. However, women had more negative mental and physical health outcomes when exposed to a lower threshold of discrimination than men. These findings suggest that failing to examine women and men separately in discrimination research may no longer be appropriate among the Asian-American population. Future research should focus attention on the biological, social, and political mechanisms that mitigate the adverse health effects of discrimination in order to develop a more comprehensive approach to eliminate disparities in health. 2010 Jacobs Institute of Women

Unintended effects of electrofishing on nongame fishes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miranda, Leandro E.; Kidwell, R. H.

2010-01-01

Most studies of injury associated with electrofishing have focused on game fishes, but few have given attention to cohabiting small nongame species. Under controlled laboratory conditions, we subjected small nongame cyprinids, ictalurids, and percids to a wide range of voltages and waveforms to examine potential harmful effects. Fish were treated with power levels distributed uniformly between the thresholds required to immobilize game fish and also were subjected multiple times to those thresholds to simulate the range of conditions that might exist in a heterogeneous electrical field formed during electrofishing in field situations. Across waveforms and species, the incidence of hemorrhages averaged 2% (range = 0–20%), the incidence of spinal injuries averaged 6% (range = 0–30%), and mortality averaged 16% (range = 0–90%). Continuous DC was generally less harmful than pulsed-DC waveforms; hemorrhages and spinal injuries tended to increase with high pulse frequencies, and mortalities tended to increase with low pulse frequencies. Ambiguities in the results were apparent, suggesting that some species may experience extensive harm, whereas others may not. Given the potential to harm numerically small populations and populations of imperiled species, we suggest (1) expanded efforts to overcome the power limitations that prevent effective use of continuous-DC electrofishing in many field situations and (2) pilot studies at geographic locations where numerically small populations of nongame species may be a concern.

Thermal onset of cellular and endocrine stress responses correspond to ecological limits in brook trout, an iconic cold-water fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chadwick, Joseph G; Nislow, Kieth H; McCormick, Stephen

2015-01-01

Climate change is predicted to change the distribution and abundance of species, yet underlying physiological mechanisms are complex and methods for detecting populations at risk from rising temperature are poorly developed. There is increasing interest in using physiological mediators of the stress response as indicators of individual and population-level response to environmental stressors. Here, we use laboratory experiments to show that the temperature thresholds in brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) for increased gill heat shock protein-70 (20.7°C) and plasma glucose (21.2°C) are similar to their proposed thermal ecological limit of 21.0°C. Field assays demonstrated increased plasma glucose, cortisol and heat shock protein-70 concentrations at field sites where mean daily temperature exceeded 21.0°C. Furthermore, population densities of brook trout were lowest at field sites where temperatures were warm enough to induce a stress response, and a co-occurring species with a higher thermal tolerance showed no evidence of physiological stress at a warm site. The congruence of stress responses and proposed thermal limits supports the use of these thresholds in models of changes in trout distribution under climate change scenarios and suggests that the induction of the stress response by elevated temperature may play a key role in driving the distribution of species.

Density of the Waterborne Parasite Ceratomyxa shasta and Its Biological Effects on Salmon

PubMed Central

Ray, R. Adam; Hurst, Charlene N.; Holt, Richard A.; Buckles, Gerri R.; Atkinson, Stephen D.

2012-01-01

The myxozoan parasite Ceratomyxa shasta is a significant pathogen of juvenile salmonids in the Pacific Northwest of North America and is limiting recovery of Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and coho (O. kisutch) salmon populations in the Klamath River. We conducted a 5-year monitoring program that comprised concurrent sentinel fish exposures and water sampling across 212 river kilometers of the Klamath River. We used percent mortality and degree-days to death to measure disease severity in fish. We analyzed water samples using quantitative PCR and Sanger sequencing, to determine total parasite density and relative abundance of C. shasta genotypes, which differ in their pathogenicity to salmonids. We detected the parasite throughout the study zone, but parasite density and genetic composition fluctuated spatially and temporally. Chinook and coho mortality increased with density of their specific parasite genotype, but mortality-density thresholds and time to death differed. A lethality threshold of 40% mortality was reached with 10 spores liter−1 for Chinook but only 5 spores liter−1 for coho. Parasite density did not affect degree-days to death for Chinook but was negatively correlated for coho, and there was wider variation among coho individuals. These differences likely reflect the different life histories and genetic heterogeneity of the salmon populations. Direct quantification of the density of host-specific parasite genotypes in water samples offers a management tool for predicting host population-level impacts. PMID:22407689

Second Opinions Improve ADHD Prescribing in a Medicaid-Insured Community Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Jeffrey N.; Varley, Christopher K.; McClellan, Jon; Hilt, Robert; Lee, Terry; Kwan, Alan C.; Lee, Taik; Trupin, Eric

2009-01-01

Washington State Medicaid mandates a second opinion when threshold safety parameters for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medications are exceeded. This is found to save $1.2 million and saves 538 fewer patients from exceeding safety thresholds.

Dynamics of a plant-herbivore-predator system with plant-toxicity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feng, Zhilan; Qiu, Zhipeng; Liu, Rongsong; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2011-01-01

A system of ordinary differential equations is considered that models the interactions of two plant species populations, an herbivore population, and a predator population. We use a toxin-determined functional response to describe the interactions between plant species and herbivores and use a Holling Type II functional response to model the interactions between herbivores and predators. In order to study how the predators impact the succession of vegetation, we derive invasion conditions under which a plant species can invade into an environment in which another plant species is co-existing with a herbivore population with or without a predator population. These conditions provide threshold quantities for several parameters that may play a key role in the dynamics of the system. Numerical simulations are conducted to reinforce the analytical results. This model can be applied to a boreal ecosystem trophic chain to examine the possible cascading effects of predator-control actions when plant species differ in their levels of toxic defense.

Dynamics of a plant-herbivore-predator system with plant-toxicity.

PubMed

Feng, Zhilan; Qiu, Zhipeng; Liu, Rongsong; DeAngelis, Donald L

2011-02-01

A system of ordinary differential equations is considered that models the interactions of two plant species populations, an herbivore population, and a predator population. We use a toxin-determined functional response to describe the interactions between plant species and herbivores and use a Holling Type II functional response to model the interactions between herbivores and predators. In order to study how the predators impact the succession of vegetation, we derive invasion conditions under which a plant species can invade into an environment in which another plant species is co-existing with a herbivore population with or without a predator population. These conditions provide threshold quantities for several parameters that may play a key role in the dynamics of the system. Numerical simulations are conducted to reinforce the analytical results. This model can be applied to a boreal ecosystem trophic chain to examine the possible cascading effects of predator-control actions when plant species differ in their levels of toxic defense. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

PubMed

Segura, Juan; Hilker, Frank M; Franco, Daniel

2017-01-01

Adaptive limiter control (ALC) and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH) are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects). We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

Correction of the near threshold behavior of electron collisional excitation cross-sections in the plane-wave Born approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kilcrease, D. P.; Brookes, S.

2013-12-01

The modeling of NLTE plasmas requires the solution of population rate equations to determine the populations of the various atomic levels relevant to a particular problem. The equations require many cross sections for excitation, de-excitation, ionization and recombination. A simple and computational fast way to calculate electron collisional excitation cross-sections for ions is by using the plane-wave Born approximation. This is essentially a high-energy approximation and the cross section suffers from the unphysical problem of going to zero near threshold. Various remedies for this problem have been employed with varying degrees of success. We present a correction procedure for the Born cross-sections that employs the Elwert-Sommerfeld factor to correct for the use of plane waves instead of Coulomb waves in an attempt to produce a cross-section similar to that from using the more time consuming Coulomb Born approximation. We compare this new approximation with other, often employed correction procedures. We also look at some further modifications to our Born Elwert procedure and its combination with Y.K. Kim's correction of the Coulomb Born approximation for singly charged ions that more accurately approximate convergent close coupling calculations.

[Correlation analysis of hearing level and soft palate movement after palatoplasty].

PubMed

Lou, Qun; Ma, Xiaoran; Ma, Lian; Luo, Yi; Zhu, Hongping; Zhou, Zhibo

2015-10-01

To explore the relationship between hearing level and soft palate movement after palatoplasty and to verify the importance of recovery of soft palate movement function for improving the middle ear function as well as reducing the hearing loss. A total of 64 non-syndromic cleft palate patients were selected and the lateral cephalometric radiographs were taken. The patients hearing level was evaluated by the pure tone hearing threshold examination. This study also analyzed the correlation between hearing threshold of the patients after palatoplasty and the soft palate elevation angle and velopharyngeal rate respectively. Kendall correlation analysis revealed that the correlation coefficient between hearing threshold and the soft palate elevation angle after palatoplasty was -0.339 (r = -0.339, P < 0.01).The correlation showed a negative correlation. The hearing threshold decreased as the soft palate elevation angle increased. After palatoplasty, the correlation coefficient between the hearing threshold and the rate of velopharyngeal closure was -0.277 (r = -0.277, P < 0.01). The correlation showed a negative correlation. While, The hearing threshold decreased with the increase of velopharyngeal closure rate. The hearing threshold was correlated with soft palate elevation angle and velpharyngeal closure rate. The movement of soft palate and velopharyngeal closure function after palatoplasty both have impact on patient hearing level. In terms of the influence level, the movement of soft palate has a higher level of impact on patient hearing level than velopharygeal closure function.

SUSCEPTIBILITY LOCI FOR UMBILICAL HERNIA IN SWINE DETECTED BY GENOME-WIDE ASSOCIATION.

PubMed

Liao, X J; Lia, L; Zhang, Z Y; Long, Y; Yang, B; Ruan, G R; Su, Y; Ai, H S; Zhang, W C; Deng, W Y; Xiao, S J; Ren, J; Ding, N S; Huang, L S

2015-10-01

Umbilical hernia (UH) is a complex disorder caused by both genetic and environmental factors. UH brings animal welfare problems and severe economic loss to the pig industry. Until now, the genetic basis of UH is poorly understood. The high-density 60K porcine SNP array enables the rapid application of genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify genetic loci for phenotypic traits at genome wide scale in pigs. The objective of this research was to identify susceptibility loci for swine umbilical hernia using the GWAS approach. We genotyped 478 piglets from 142 families representing three Western commercial breeds with the Illumina PorcineSNP60 BeadChip. Then significant SNPs were detected by GWAS using ROADTRIPS (Robust Association-Detection Test for Related Individuals with Population Substructure) software base on a Bonferroni corrected threshold (P = 1.67E-06) or suggestive threshold (P = 3.34E-05) and false discovery rate (FDR = 0.05). After quality control, 29,924 qualified SNPs and 472 piglets were used for GWAS. Two suggestive loci predisposing to pig UH were identified at 44.25MB on SSC2 (rs81358018, P = 3.34E-06, FDR = 0.049933) and at 45.90MB on SSC17 (rs81479278, P = 3.30E-06, FDR = 0.049933) in Duroc population, respectively. And no SNP was detected to be associated with pig UH at significant level in neither Landrace nor Large White population. Furthermore, we carried out a meta-analysis in the combined pure-breed population containing all the 472 piglets. rs81479278 (P = 1.16E-06, FDR = 0.022475) was identified to associate with pig UH at genome-wide significant level. SRC was characterized as plausible candidate gene for susceptibility to pig UH according to its genomic position and biological functions. To our knowledge, this study gives the first description of GWAS identifying susceptibility loci for umbilical hernia in pigs. Our findings provide deeper insights to the genetic architecture of umbilical hernia in pigs.

Estimating background and threshold nitrate concentrations using probability graphs

USGS Publications Warehouse

Panno, S.V.; Kelly, W.R.; Martinsek, A.T.; Hackley, Keith C.

2006-01-01

Because of the ubiquitous nature of anthropogenic nitrate (NO 3-) in many parts of the world, determining background concentrations of NO3- in shallow ground water from natural sources is probably impossible in most environments. Present-day background must now include diffuse sources of NO3- such as disruption of soils and oxidation of organic matter, and atmospheric inputs from products of combustion and evaporation of ammonia from fertilizer and livestock waste. Anomalies can be defined as NO3- derived from nitrogen (N) inputs to the environment from anthropogenic activities, including synthetic fertilizers, livestock waste, and septic effluent. Cumulative probability graphs were used to identify threshold concentrations separating background and anomalous NO3-N concentrations and to assist in the determination of sources of N contamination for 232 spring water samples and 200 well water samples from karst aquifers. Thresholds were 0.4, 2.5, and 6.7 mg/L for spring water samples, and 0.1, 2.1, and 17 mg/L for well water samples. The 0.4 and 0.1 mg/L values are assumed to represent thresholds for present-day precipitation. Thresholds at 2.5 and 2.1 mg/L are interpreted to represent present-day background concentrations of NO3-N. The population of spring water samples with concentrations between 2.5 and 6.7 mg/L represents an amalgam of all sources of NO3- in the ground water basins that feed each spring; concentrations >6.7 mg/L were typically samples collected soon after springtime application of synthetic fertilizer. The 17 mg/L threshold (adjusted to 15 mg/L) for well water samples is interpreted as the level above which livestock wastes dominate the N sources. Copyright ?? 2006 The Author(s).

Effect of Socioeconomic Status and Underlying Disease on the Association between Ambient Temperature and Ischemic Stroke.

PubMed

Cho, Seong Kyung; Sohn, Jungwoo; Cho, Jaelim; Noh, Juhwan; Ha, Kyoung Hwa; Choi, Yoon Jung; Pae, Sangjoon; Kim, Changsoo; Shin, Dong Chun

2018-07-01

Inconsistent findings have been reported regarding the effect of ambient temperature on ischemic stroke. Furthermore, little is known about how underlying disease and low socioeconomic status influence the association. We, therefore, investigated the relationship between ambient temperature and emergency department (ED) visits for ischemic stroke, and aimed to identify susceptible populations. Using medical claims data, we identified ED visits for ischemic stroke during 2005-2009 in Seoul, Korea. We conducted piecewise linear regression analyses to find optimum ambient temperature thresholds in summer and winter, and estimated the relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) per a 1°C increase in temperature above/below the thresholds, adjusting for relative humidity, holidays, day of the week, and air pollutant levels. There were 63564 ED visits for ischemic stroke. In summer, the risk of ED visits for ischemic stroke was not significant, with the threshold at 26.8°C. However, the RRs were 1.055 (95% CI, 1.006-1.106) above 25.0°C in medical aid beneficiaries and 1.044 (1.007-1.082) above 25.8°C in patients with diabetes. In winter, the risk of ED visits for ischemic stroke significantly increased as the temperature decreased above the threshold at 7.2°C. This inverse association was significant also in patients with hypertension and diabetes mellitus above threshold temperatures. Ambient temperature increases above a threshold were positively associated with ED visits for ischemic stroke in patients with diabetes and medical aid beneficiaries in summer. In winter, temperature, to a point, and ischemic stroke visits were inversely associated. © Copyright: Yonsei University College of Medicine 2018.

Objectives, Budgets, Thresholds, and Opportunity Costs-A Health Economics Approach: An ISPOR Special Task Force Report [4].

PubMed

Danzon, Patricia M; Drummond, Michael F; Towse, Adrian; Pauly, Mark V

2018-02-01

The fourth section of our Special Task Force report focuses on a health plan or payer's technology adoption or reimbursement decision, given the array of technologies, on the basis of their different values and costs. We discuss the role of budgets, thresholds, opportunity costs, and affordability in making decisions. First, we discuss the use of budgets and thresholds in private and public health plans, their interdependence, and connection to opportunity cost. Essentially, each payer should adopt a decision rule about what is good value for money given their budget; consistent use of a cost-per-quality-adjusted life-year threshold will ensure the maximum health gain for the budget. In the United States, different public and private insurance programs could use different thresholds, reflecting the differing generosity of their budgets and implying different levels of access to technologies. In addition, different insurance plans could consider different additional elements to the quality-adjusted life-year metric discussed elsewhere in our Special Task Force report. We then define affordability and discuss approaches to deal with it, including consideration of disinvestment and related adjustment costs, the impact of delaying new technologies, and comparative cost effectiveness of technologies. Over time, the availability of new technologies may increase the amount that populations want to spend on health care. We then discuss potential modifiers to thresholds, including uncertainty about the evidence used in the decision-making process. This article concludes by discussing the application of these concepts in the context of the pluralistic US health care system, as well as the "excess burden" of tax-financed public programs versus private programs. Copyright © 2018 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Wearable Lactate Threshold Predicting Device is Valid and Reliable in Runners.

PubMed

Borges, Nattai R; Driller, Matthew W

2016-08-01

Borges, NR and Driller, MW. Wearable lactate threshold predicting device is valid and reliable in runners. J Strength Cond Res 30(8): 2212-2218, 2016-A commercially available device claiming to be the world's first wearable lactate threshold predicting device (WLT), using near-infrared LED technology, has entered the market. The aim of this study was to determine the levels of agreement between the WLT-derived lactate threshold workload and traditional methods of lactate threshold (LT) calculation and the interdevice and intradevice reliability of the WLT. Fourteen (7 male, 7 female; mean ± SD; age: 18-45 years, height: 169 ± 9 cm, mass: 67 ± 13 kg, V[Combining Dot Above]O2max: 53 ± 9 ml·kg·min) subjects ranging from recreationally active to highly trained athletes completed an incremental exercise test to exhaustion on a treadmill. Blood lactate samples were taken at the end of each 3-minute stage during the test to determine lactate threshold using 5 traditional methods from blood lactate analysis which were then compared against the WLT predicted value. In a subset of the population (n = 12), repeat trials were performed to determine both inter-reliability and intrareliability of the WLT device. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) found high to very high agreement between the WLT and traditional methods (ICC > 0.80), with TEMs and mean differences ranging between 3.9-10.2% and 1.3-9.4%. Both interdevice and intradevice reliability resulted in highly reproducible and comparable results (CV < 1.2%, TEM <0.2 km·h, ICC > 0.97). This study suggests that the WLT is a practical, reliable, and noninvasive tool for use in predicting LT in runners.

Re-visiting Trichuris trichiura intensity thresholds based on anemia during pregnancy.

PubMed

Gyorkos, Theresa W; Gilbert, Nicolas L; Larocque, Renée; Casapía, Martín; Montresor, Antonio

2012-01-01

The intensity categories, or thresholds, currently used for Trichuris trichiura (ie. epg intensities of 1-999 (light); 1,000-9,999 epg (moderate), and ≥ 10,000 epg (heavy)) were developed in the 1980s, when there were little epidemiological data available on dose-response relationships. This study was undertaken to determine a threshold for T. trichiura-associated anemia in pregnant women and to describe the implications of this threshold in terms of the need for primary prevention and chemotherapeutic interventions. In Iquitos, Peru, 935 pregnant women were tested for T. trichiura infection in their second trimester of pregnancy; were given daily iron supplements throughout their pregnancy; and had their blood hemoglobin levels measured in their third trimester of pregnancy. Women in the highest two T. trichiura intensity quintiles (601-1632 epg and ≥ 1633 epg) had significantly lower mean hemoglobin concentrations than the lowest quintile (0-24 epg). They also had a statistically significantly higher risk of anemia, with adjusted odds ratios of 1.67 (95% CI: 1.02, 2.62) and 1.73 (95% CI: 1.09, 2.74), respectively. This analysis provides support for categorizing a T. trichiura infection ≥ 1,000 epg as 'moderate', as currently defined by the World Health Organization. Because this 'moderate' level of T. trichiura infection was found to be a significant risk factor for anemia in pregnant women, the intensity of Trichuris infection deemed to cause or aggravate anemia should no longer be restricted to the 'heavy' intensity category. It should now include both 'heavy' and 'moderate' intensities of Trichuris infection. Evidence-based deworming strategies targeting pregnant women or populations where anemia is of concern should be updated accordingly.

Re-Visiting Trichuris trichiura Intensity Thresholds Based on Anemia during Pregnancy

PubMed Central

Gyorkos, Theresa W.; Gilbert, Nicolas L.; Larocque, Renée; Casapía, Martín; Montresor, Antonio

2012-01-01

Background The intensity categories, or thresholds, currently used for Trichuris trichiura (ie. epg intensities of 1–999 (light); 1,000–9,999 epg (moderate), and ≥10,000 epg (heavy)) were developed in the 1980s, when there were little epidemiological data available on dose-response relationships. This study was undertaken to determine a threshold for T. trichiura-associated anemia in pregnant women and to describe the implications of this threshold in terms of the need for primary prevention and chemotherapeutic interventions. Methodology/Principal Findings In Iquitos, Peru, 935 pregnant women were tested for T. trichiura infection in their second trimester of pregnancy; were given daily iron supplements throughout their pregnancy; and had their blood hemoglobin levels measured in their third trimester of pregnancy. Women in the highest two T. trichiura intensity quintiles (601–1632 epg and ≥1633 epg) had significantly lower mean hemoglobin concentrations than the lowest quintile (0–24 epg). They also had a statistically significantly higher risk of anemia, with adjusted odds ratios of 1.67 (95% CI: 1.02, 2.62) and 1.73 (95% CI: 1.09, 2.74), respectively. Conclusions/Significance This analysis provides support for categorizing a T. trichiura infection ≥1,000 epg as ‘moderate’, as currently defined by the World Health Organization. Because this ‘moderate’ level of T. trichiura infection was found to be a significant risk factor for anemia in pregnant women, the intensity of Trichuris infection deemed to cause or aggravate anemia should no longer be restricted to the ‘heavy’ intensity category. It should now include both ‘heavy’ and ‘moderate’ intensities of Trichuris infection. Evidence-based deworming strategies targeting pregnant women or populations where anemia is of concern should be updated accordingly. PMID:23029572

Density-dependent selection on mate search and evolution of Allee effects.

PubMed

Berec, Luděk; Kramer, Andrew M; Bernhauerová, Veronika; Drake, John M

2018-01-01

Sexually reproducing organisms require males and females to find each other. Increased difficulty of females finding mates as male density declines is the most frequently reported mechanism of Allee effects in animals. Evolving more effective mate search may alleviate Allee effects, but may depend on density regimes a population experiences. In particular, high-density populations may evolve mechanisms that induce Allee effects which become detrimental when populations are reduced and maintained at a low density. We develop an individual-based, eco-genetic model to study how mating systems and fitness trade-offs interact with changes in population density to drive evolution of the rate at which males or females search for mates. Finite mate search rate triggers Allee effects in our model and we explore how these Allee effects respond to such evolution. We allow a population to adapt to several population density regimes and examine whether high-density populations are likely to reverse adaptations attained at low densities. We find density-dependent selection in most of scenarios, leading to search rates that result in lower Allee thresholds in populations kept at lower densities. This mainly occurs when fecundity costs are imposed on mate search, and provides an explanation for why Allee effects are often observed in anthropogenically rare species. Optimizing selection, where the attained trait value minimizes the Allee threshold independent of population density, depended on the trade-off between search and survival, combined with monogamy when females were searching. Other scenarios led to runaway selection on the mate search rate, including evolutionary suicide. Trade-offs involved in mate search may thus be crucial to determining how density influences the evolution of Allee effects. Previous studies did not examine evolution of a trait related to the strength of Allee effects under density variation. We emphasize the crucial role that mating systems, fitness trade-offs and the evolving sex have in determining the density threshold for population persistence, in particular since evolution need not always take the Allee threshold to its minimum value. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

L-type calcium channels refine the neural population code of sound level

PubMed Central

Grimsley, Calum Alex; Green, David Brian

2016-01-01

The coding of sound level by ensembles of neurons improves the accuracy with which listeners identify how loud a sound is. In the auditory system, the rate at which neurons fire in response to changes in sound level is shaped by local networks. Voltage-gated conductances alter local output by regulating neuronal firing, but their role in modulating responses to sound level is unclear. We tested the effects of L-type calcium channels (CaL: CaV1.1–1.4) on sound-level coding in the central nucleus of the inferior colliculus (ICC) in the auditory midbrain. We characterized the contribution of CaL to the total calcium current in brain slices and then examined its effects on rate-level functions (RLFs) in vivo using single-unit recordings in awake mice. CaL is a high-threshold current and comprises ∼50% of the total calcium current in ICC neurons. In vivo, CaL activates at sound levels that evoke high firing rates. In RLFs that increase monotonically with sound level, CaL boosts spike rates at high sound levels and increases the maximum firing rate achieved. In different populations of RLFs that change nonmonotonically with sound level, CaL either suppresses or enhances firing at sound levels that evoke maximum firing. CaL multiplies the gain of monotonic RLFs with dynamic range and divides the gain of nonmonotonic RLFs with the width of the RLF. These results suggest that a single broad class of calcium channels activates enhancing and suppressing local circuits to regulate the sensitivity of neuronal populations to sound level. PMID:27605536

The Montreal Cognitive Assessment and the mini-mental state examination as screening instruments for cognitive impairment: item analyses and threshold scores.

PubMed

Damian, Anne M; Jacobson, Sandra A; Hentz, Joseph G; Belden, Christine M; Shill, Holly A; Sabbagh, Marwan N; Caviness, John N; Adler, Charles H

2011-01-01

To perform an item analysis of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) versus the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in the prediction of cognitive impairment, and to examine the characteristics of different MoCA threshold scores. 135 subjects enrolled in a longitudinal clinicopathologic study were administered the MoCA by a single physician and the MMSE by a trained research assistant. Subjects were classified as cognitively impaired or cognitively normal based on independent neuropsychological testing. 89 subjects were found to be cognitively normal, and 46 cognitively impaired (20 with dementia, 26 with mild cognitive impairment). The MoCA was superior in both sensitivity and specificity to the MMSE, although not all MoCA tasks were of equal predictive value. A MoCA threshold score of 26 had a sensitivity of 98% and a specificity of 52% in this population. In a population with a 20% prevalence of cognitive impairment, a threshold of 24 was optimal (negative predictive value 96%, positive predictive value 47%). This analysis suggests the potential for creating an abbreviated MoCA. For screening in primary care, the MoCA threshold of 26 appears optimal. For testing in a memory disorders clinic, a lower threshold has better predictive value. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Gauging the likelihood of stable cavitation from ultrasound contrast agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bader, Kenneth B.; Holland, Christy K.

2013-01-01

The mechanical index (MI) was formulated to gauge the likelihood of adverse bioeffects from inertial cavitation. However, the MI formulation did not consider bubble activity from stable cavitation. This type of bubble activity can be readily nucleated from ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs) and has the potential to promote beneficial bioeffects. Here, the presence of stable cavitation is determined numerically by tracking the onset of subharmonic oscillations within a population of bubbles for frequencies up to 7 MHz and peak rarefactional pressures up to 3 MPa. In addition, the acoustic pressure rupture threshold of an UCA population was determined using the Marmottant model. The threshold for subharmonic emissions of optimally sized bubbles was found to be lower than the inertial cavitation threshold for all frequencies studied. The rupture thresholds of optimally sized UCAs were found to be lower than the threshold for subharmonic emissions for either single cycle or steady state acoustic excitations. Because the thresholds of both subharmonic emissions and UCA rupture are linearly dependent on frequency, an index of the form ICAV = Pr/f (where Pr is the peak rarefactional pressure in MPa and f is the frequency in MHz) was derived to gauge the likelihood of subharmonic emissions due to stable cavitation activity nucleated from UCAs.

Gauging the likelihood of stable cavitation from ultrasound contrast agents.

PubMed

Bader, Kenneth B; Holland, Christy K

2013-01-07

The mechanical index (MI) was formulated to gauge the likelihood of adverse bioeffects from inertial cavitation. However, the MI formulation did not consider bubble activity from stable cavitation. This type of bubble activity can be readily nucleated from ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs) and has the potential to promote beneficial bioeffects. Here, the presence of stable cavitation is determined numerically by tracking the onset of subharmonic oscillations within a population of bubbles for frequencies up to 7 MHz and peak rarefactional pressures up to 3 MPa. In addition, the acoustic pressure rupture threshold of an UCA population was determined using the Marmottant model. The threshold for subharmonic emissions of optimally sized bubbles was found to be lower than the inertial cavitation threshold for all frequencies studied. The rupture thresholds of optimally sized UCAs were found to be lower than the threshold for subharmonic emissions for either single cycle or steady state acoustic excitations. Because the thresholds of both subharmonic emissions and UCA rupture are linearly dependent on frequency, an index of the form I(CAV) = P(r)/f (where P(r) is the peak rarefactional pressure in MPa and f is the frequency in MHz) was derived to gauge the likelihood of subharmonic emissions due to stable cavitation activity nucleated from UCAs.

Gauging the likelihood of stable cavitation from ultrasound contrast agents

PubMed Central

Bader, Kenneth B; Holland, Christy K

2015-01-01

The mechanical index (MI) was formulated to gauge the likelihood of adverse bioeffects from inertial cavitation. However, the MI formulation did not consider bubble activity from stable cavitation. This type of bubble activity can be readily nucleated from ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs) and has the potential to promote beneficial bioeffects. Here, the presence of stable cavitation is determined numerically by tracking the onset of subharmonic oscillations within a population of bubbles for frequencies up to 7 MHz and peak rarefactional pressures up to 3 MPa. In addition, the acoustic pressure rupture threshold of an UCA population was determined using the Marmottant model. The threshold for subharmonic emissions of optimally sized bubbles was found to be lower than the inertial cavitation threshold for all frequencies studied. The rupture thresholds of optimally sized UCAs were found to be lower than the threshold for subharmonic emissions for either single cycle or steady state acoustic excitations. Because the thresholds of both subharmonic emissions and UCA rupture are linearly dependent on frequency, an index of the form ICAV = Pr/f (where Pr is the peak rarefactional pressure in MPa and f is the frequency in MHz) was derived to gauge the likelihood of subharmonic emissions due to stable cavitation activity nucleated from UCAs. PMID:23221109

The Threshold Level--For Schools?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lauerbach, Gerda

1979-01-01

Comments on the document "Threshold Level for Modern Language Learning Schools" (J. A. Van Ek, Strasbourg, 1976) and its appropriateness as a description of learning goals for the first years of foreign language teaching. Criticizes particularly the "reduced learning" concept, on which the threshold projects are based. (IFS/WGA)

Impact of removing iodized salt on the iodine nutrition of children living in areas with variable iodine content in drinking water.

PubMed

Lv, Shengmin; Zhao, Yinglu; Li, Yanxia; Wang, Yuchun; Liu, Hua; Li, Yang; Zhao, Jun; Rutherford, Shannon

2015-09-01

Excess iodine in drinking water has emerged as a public health issue in China. This study assesses the effectiveness of removing iodized salt on reducing the iodine excess in populations living in high-iodine areas and also to identify the threshold value for safe levels of iodine in water. Twelve villages from 5 cities of Hebei Province with iodine content in drinking water ranging from 39 to 313 µg/l were selected to compare the urinary iodine content of children aged 8-10 years before and after removing iodized salt from their diet. For 3 villages where median water iodine content (MWIC) was below 110 µg/l, following the removal of iodized salt (the intervention), the median urinary iodine content (MUIC) reduced to under 300 µg/l decreasing from 365, 380, 351 to 247, 240, 281 µg/l, respectively. However, the MUIC in the 9 villages with MWIC above 110 µg/l remained higher than 300 µg/l. The children's MUIC correlated positively with the MWIC in the 12 villages (p ≤ 0.001). The linear regression equation after removing iodized salt was MUIC = 0.6761MWIC + 225.67, indicating that to keep the MUIC below 300 µg/l (the iodine excess threshold recommended by the WHO) requires the MWIC to be under 110 µg/l. Removing iodized salt could only correct the iodine excess in the population living in the areas with MWIC below 110 µg/l. In the areas with water iodine above 110 µg/l, interventions should be focused on seeking water with lower iodine content. This study suggests a threshold value of 110 µg/l of iodine in drinking water to maintain a safe level of dietary iodine.

Serum Gamma-Glutamyl-Transferase Independently Predicts Outcome After Transarterial Chemoembolization of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: External Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guiu, Boris, E-mail: boris.guiu@chu-dijon.fr; Deschamps, Frederic; Boulin, Mathieu

Purpose: An Asian study showed that gamma glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT) can predict survival after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). This study was designed to validate in a European population this biomarker as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC and to determine a threshold value for clinical use. Methods: In 88 consecutive patients treated by TACE for HCC, the optimal threshold for GGT serum level was determined by a ROC analysis. Endpoints were time-to-treatment failure (TTTF) and overall survival (OS). All multivariate models were internally validated using bootstrapping (90 replications). Results: Median follow-up lasted 373 days,more » and median overall survival was 748 days. The optimal threshold for GGT was 165 U/L (sensitivity: 89.3%; specificity: 56.7%; area under the ROC curve: 0.7515). Median TTTF was shorter when GGT was {>=}165 U/L (281 days vs. 850 days; P < 0.001). GGT {>=}165 U/L (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.06; P = 0.02), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 5.4; P = 0.002), and tumor size (HR = 1.12; P = 0.014) were independently associated with shorter TTTF. Median OS was shorter when GGT was {>=}165 U/L (508 days vs. not reached; P < 0.001). GGT {>=} 165 U/L (HR = 3.05; P = 0.029), WHO PS of 2 (HR = 12.95; P < 0.001), alfa-fetoprotein (HR = 2.9; P = 0.01), and tumor size (HR = 1.096; P = 0.013) were independently associated with shorter OS. The results were confirmed by bootstrapping. Conclusions: Our results provide in a European population the external validation of GGT as an independent predictor of outcome after TACE of HCC. A serum level of GGT {>=} 165 U/L is independently associated with both shorter TTTF and OS.« less

Serum Concentrations of Selenium and Copper in Patients Diagnosed with Pancreatic Cancer.

PubMed

Lener, Marcin R; Scott, Rodney J; Wiechowska-Kozłowska, Anna; Serrano-Fernández, Pablo; Baszuk, Piotr; Jaworska-Bieniek, Katarzyna; Sukiennicki, Grzegorz; Marciniak, Wojciech; Muszyńska, Magdalena; Kładny, Józef; Gromowski, Tomasz; Kaczmarek, Katarzyna; Jakubowska, Anna; Lubiński, Jan

2016-07-01

Understanding of the etiology and pathogenesis of pancreatic cancer (PaCa) is still insufficient. This study evaluated the associations between concentrations of selenium (Se) and copper (Cu) in the serum of PaCa patients. The study included 100 PaCa patients and 100 control subjects from the same geographical region in Poland. To determine the average concentration of Se, Cu, and ratio Cu:Se in the Polish population, assay for Se and Cu was performed in 480 healthy individuals. Serum levels of Se and Cu were measured using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. In the control group, the average Se level was 76 µg/L and Cu 1,098 µg/L. The average Se level among PaCa patients was 60 µg/L and the mean Cu level was 1,432 µg/L. The threshold point at which any decrease in Se concentration was associated with PaCa was 67.45 µg/L. The threshold point of Cu level above which there was an increase in the prevalence of PaCa was 1,214.58 µg/L. In addition, a positive relationship was observed between increasing survival time and Se plasma level. This retrospective study suggests that low levels of Se and high levels of Cu might influence development of PaCa and that higher levels of Se are associated with longer survival in patients with PaCa. The results suggest that determining the level of Se and Cu could be incorporated into a risk stratification scheme for the selection and surveillance control examination to complement existing screening and diagnostic procedures.

Particle decay of proton-unbound levels in N 12

DOE PAGES

Chipps, K. A.; Pain, S. D.; Greife, U.; ...

2017-04-24

Transfer reactions are a useful tool for studying nuclear structure, particularly in the regime of low level densities and strong single-particle strengths. Additionally, transfer reactions can populate levels above particle decay thresholds, allowing for the possibility of studying the subsequent decays and furthering our understanding of the nuclei being probed. In particular, the decay of loosely bound nuclei such as 12 N can help inform and improve structure models.The purpose of this paper is to learn about the decay of excited states in 12 N , to more generally inform nuclear structure models, particularly in the case of particle-unbound levelsmore » in low-mass systems which are within the reach of state-of-the-art ab initio calculations.« less

A quantitative model of honey bee colony population dynamics.

PubMed

Khoury, David S; Myerscough, Mary R; Barron, Andrew B

2011-04-18

Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem.

Simplified 4-item criteria for polycystic ovary syndrome: A bridge too far?

PubMed

Indran, Inthrani R; Huang, Zhongwei; Khin, Lay Wai; Chan, Jerry K Y; Viardot-Foucault, Veronique; Yong, Eu Leong

2018-05-30

Although the Rotterdam 2003 polycystic ovarian syndrome (PCOS) diagnostic criteria is widely used, the need to consider multiple variables makes it unwieldy in clinical practice. We propose a simplified PCOS criteria wherein diagnosis is made if two of the following three items were present: (i) oligomenorrhoea, (ii) anti-mullerian hormone (AMH) above threshold and/or (iii) hyperandrogenism defined as either testosterone above threshold and/or the presence of hirsutism. This prospective cross-sectional study consists of healthy women (n = 157) recruited at an annual hospital health screen for staff and volunteers from the university community, and a patient cohort (n = 174) comprising women referred for suspected PCOS. We used the healthy cohort to establish threshold values for serum testosterone, antral follicle counts (AFC), ovarian volume (OV) and AMH. Women from the patient cohort, classified as PCOS by simplified PCOS criteria, AMH alone and Rotterdam 2003, were compared with respect to prevalence of oligomenorrhoea, hyperandrogenism and metabolic indices. In healthy women, testosterone ≥1.89 nmol/L, AFC ≥22 follicles and OV ≥8.44 mL, best predicted oligomenorrhoea and were used as threshold values for PCOS criteria. An AMH level ≥37.0 pmol/L best predicted polycystic ovarian morphology. AMH alone as a single biomarker demonstrated poor specificity (58.9%) for PCOS compared to Rotterdam 2003. In contrast, there was a 94% overlap in women selected as PCOS by the simplified PCOS criteria and Rotterdam 2003. The population characteristics of these two groups of PCOS women showed no significant mean differences in androgenic, ovarian, AMH and metabolic (BMI, HOMA-IR) variables. Our data recommend the simplified PCOS criteria with population-specific thresholds for diagnosis of PCOS. Its ability to replace ovarian ultrasound biometry with the highly correlated variable AMH, and use of testosterone as a single marker for hyperandrogenaemia alongside the key symptoms of oligomenorrhoea and hirsutism confers significant clinical potential for the diagnosis of PCOS. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Veldkamp, T. I. E.; Wada, Y.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Ward, P. J.

2016-01-01

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Mercury in fur of Daubenton's bat (Myotis daubentonii) in Southern Sweden and Comparison to Ecotoxicological Thresholds.

PubMed

Åkerblom, Staffan; de Jong, Johnny

2017-11-01

To characterise mercury (Hg) exposure in Daubenton's bat (Myotis daubentonii, Kuhl 1817) in southern Sweden, 17 specimens were captured in 2013 and back fur samples were taken for analysis to determine Hg concentrations. The fur Hg levels determined [1.15 ± 0.27 (mean ± standard deviation, n = 17) µg Hg g -1 fresh weight (fw)] represent a baseline for comparison in future assessments of Hg exposure in bat populations in northern Europe. Mercury concentrations were close to those reported in fur from other bat species, but were lower than proposed toxicological thresholds in bats (> 30 µg Hg g -1  fw) and mice (5 µg Hg g -1  fw). This is the first study to examine Hg exposure in bats in Scandinavia.

Effects of 946-nm thermal shift and broadening on Nd3+:YAG laser performance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyed Ebrahim, Pourmand; Ghasem, Rezaei

2015-12-01

Spectroscopic properties of flashlamp pumped Nd3+:YAG laser are studied as a function of temperature in a range from -30 °C to 60 °C. The spectral width and shift of quasi three-level 946.0-nm inter-Stark emission within the respective intermanifold transitions of 4F3/2 → 4I9/2 are investigated. The 946.0-nm line shifts toward the shorter wavelength and broadens. In addition, the threshold power and slope efficiency of the 946.0-nm laser line are quantified with temperature. The lower the temperature, the lower the threshold power is and the higher the slope efficiency of the 946.0-nm laser line is, thus the higher the laser output is. This phenomenon is attributed to the ion-phonon interaction and the thermal population in the ground state. Project supported by Estahban Branch, Islamic Azad University.

Non-Linear Concentration-Response Relationships between Ambient Ozone and Daily Mortality.

PubMed

Bae, Sanghyuk; Lim, Youn-Hee; Kashima, Saori; Yorifuji, Takashi; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Hong, Yun-Chul

2015-01-01

Ambient ozone (O3) concentration has been reported to be significantly associated with mortality. However, linearity of the relationships and the presence of a threshold has been controversial. The aim of the present study was to examine the concentration-response relationship and threshold of the association between ambient O3 concentration and non-accidental mortality in 13 Japanese and Korean cities from 2000 to 2009. We selected Japanese and Korean cities which have population of over 1 million. We constructed Poisson regression models adjusting daily mean temperature, daily mean PM10, humidity, time trend, season, year, day of the week, holidays and yearly population. The association between O3 concentration and mortality was examined using linear, spline and linear-threshold models. The thresholds were estimated for each city, by constructing linear-threshold models. We also examined the city-combined association using a generalized additive mixed model. The mean O3 concentration did not differ greatly between Korea and Japan, which were 26.2 ppb and 24.2 ppb, respectively. Seven out of 13 cities showed better fits for the spline model compared with the linear model, supporting a non-linear relationships between O3 concentration and mortality. All of the 7 cities showed J or U shaped associations suggesting the existence of thresholds. The range of city-specific thresholds was from 11 to 34 ppb. The city-combined analysis also showed a non-linear association with a threshold around 30-40 ppb. We have observed non-linear concentration-response relationship with thresholds between daily mean ambient O3 concentration and daily number of non-accidental death in Japanese and Korean cities.

Chromatic Perceptual Learning but No Category Effects without Linguistic Input.

PubMed

Grandison, Alexandra; Sowden, Paul T; Drivonikou, Vicky G; Notman, Leslie A; Alexander, Iona; Davies, Ian R L

2016-01-01

Perceptual learning involves an improvement in perceptual judgment with practice, which is often specific to stimulus or task factors. Perceptual learning has been shown on a range of visual tasks but very little research has explored chromatic perceptual learning. Here, we use two low level perceptual threshold tasks and a supra-threshold target detection task to assess chromatic perceptual learning and category effects. Experiment 1 investigates whether chromatic thresholds reduce as a result of training and at what level of analysis learning effects occur. Experiment 2 explores the effect of category training on chromatic thresholds, whether training of this nature is category specific and whether it can induce categorical responding. Experiment 3 investigates the effect of category training on a higher level, lateralized target detection task, previously found to be sensitive to category effects. The findings indicate that performance on a perceptual threshold task improves following training but improvements do not transfer across retinal location or hue. Therefore, chromatic perceptual learning is category specific and can occur at relatively early stages of visual analysis. Additionally, category training does not induce category effects on a low level perceptual threshold task, as indicated by comparable discrimination thresholds at the newly learned hue boundary and adjacent test points. However, category training does induce emerging category effects on a supra-threshold target detection task. Whilst chromatic perceptual learning is possible, learnt category effects appear to be a product of left hemisphere processing, and may require the input of higher level linguistic coding processes in order to manifest.

Neural Correlates and Mechanisms of Spatial Release From Masking: Single-Unit and Population Responses in the Inferior Colliculus

PubMed Central

Lane, Courtney C.; Delgutte, Bertrand

2007-01-01

Spatial release from masking (SRM), a factor in listening in noisy environments, is the improvement in auditory signal detection obtained when a signal is separated in space from a masker. To study the neural mechanisms of SRM, we recorded from single units in the inferior colliculus (IC) of barbiturate-anesthetized cats, focusing on low-frequency neurons sensitive to interaural time differences. The stimulus was a broadband chirp train with a 40-Hz repetition rate in continuous broadband noise, and the unit responses were measured for several signal and masker (virtual) locations. Masked thresholds (the lowest signal-to-noise ratio, SNR, for which the signal could be detected for 75% of the stimulus presentations) changed systematically with signal and masker location. Single-unit thresholds did not necessarily improve with signal and masker separation; instead, they tended to reflect the units’ azimuth preference. Both how the signal was detected (through a rate increase or decrease) and how the noise masked the signal response (suppressive or excitatory masking) changed with signal and masker azimuth, consistent with a cross-correlator model of binaural processing. However, additional processing, perhaps related to the signal’s amplitude modulation rate, appeared to influence the units’ responses. The population masked thresholds (the most sensitive unit’s threshold at each signal and masker location) did improve with signal and masker separation as a result of the variety of azimuth preferences in our unit sample. The population thresholds were similar to human behavioral thresholds in both SNR value and shape, indicating that these units may provide a neural substrate for low-frequency SRM. PMID:15857966

Differences in Taste Perception and Spicy Preference: A Thai-Japanese Cross-cultural Study.

PubMed

Trachootham, Dunyaporn; Satoh-Kuriwada, Shizuko; Lam-Ubol, Aroonwan; Promkam, Chadamas; Chotechuang, Nattida; Sasano, Takashi; Shoji, Noriaki

2017-12-25

Taste perception is influenced by several factors. However, the relation between taste perception and food culture is unclear. This study compared taste thresholds between populations with different food culture, i.e. Thai and Japanese. A matched case-control study was conducted in 168 adults (84 for each; aged between 50 and 90 years). The age, sex, systemic disease, medication, smoking, xerostomia, and oral hygiene of both groups were not different. Recognition thresholds (RTs) of sweet, salty, sour, bitter, and umami were measured using filter paper disc (FPD). Detection taste thresholds were measured using electrogustometry. Spicy preference was measured by calibrated questionnaires. Higher RTs of all tastes and higher detection taste thresholds were found in Thai as compared to those of Japanese (P < 0.0001). Separate analyses of healthy and unhealthy persons confirmed the significant differences between 2 countries. The average thresholds for sweet, salty, sour, and bitter in Thai and Japanese were 4 and 2, respectively. The average threshold for umami in Thai and Japanese was 5 and 3, respectively. Moreover, Thai population had stronger preference for spicy food (P < 0.0001) with 70% mild- or moderate and 10% strong lovers, compared to over 90% non- or mild-spicy lovers in Japanese. In addition, 70% of Thai consumed spicy food weekly, whilst 80% of Japanese consumed it monthly. Our findings suggested that population with stronger spicy preference such as Thai had much poorer taste sensitivity and perception than that with milder preference like Japanese. Extensive international survey is needed to conclude the influence of food culture on taste perception. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

On the expected discounted penalty functions for two classes of risk processes under a threshold dividend strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, Zhaoyang; Xu, Wei; Sun, Decai; Han, Weiguo

2009-10-01

In this paper, the discounted penalty (Gerber-Shiu) functions for a risk model involving two independent classes of insurance risks under a threshold dividend strategy are developed. We also assume that the two claim number processes are independent Poisson and generalized Erlang (2) processes, respectively. When the surplus is above this threshold level, dividends are paid at a constant rate that does not exceed the premium rate. Two systems of integro-differential equations for discounted penalty functions are derived, based on whether the surplus is above this threshold level. Laplace transformations of the discounted penalty functions when the surplus is below the threshold level are obtained. And we also derive a system of renewal equations satisfied by the discounted penalty function with initial surplus above the threshold strategy via the Dickson-Hipp operator. Finally, analytical solutions of the two systems of integro-differential equations are presented.

Identifying the most appropriate age threshold for TNM stage grouping of well-differentiated thyroid cancer.

PubMed

Hendrickson-Rebizant, J; Sigvaldason, H; Nason, R W; Pathak, K A

2015-08-01

Age is integrated in most risk stratification systems for well-differentiated thyroid cancer (WDTC). The most appropriate age threshold for stage grouping of WDTC is debatable. The objective of this study was to evaluate the best age threshold for stage grouping by comparing multivariable models designed to evaluate the independent impact of various prognostic factors, including age based stage grouping, on the disease specific survival (DSS) of our population-based cohort. Data from population-based thyroid cancer cohort of 2125 consecutive WDTC, diagnosed during 1970-2010, with a median follow-up of 11.5 years, was used to calculate DSS using the Kaplan Meier method. Multivariable analysis with Cox proportional hazard model was used to assess independent impact of different prognostic factors on DSS. The Akaike information criterion (AIC), a measure of statistical model fit, was used to identify the most appropriate age threshold model. Delta AIC, Akaike weight, and evidence ratios were calculated to compare the relative strength of different models. The mean age of the patients was 47.3 years. DSS of the cohort was 95.6% and 92.8% at 10 and 20 years respectively. A threshold of 55 years, with the lowest AIC, was identified as the best model. Akaike weight indicated an 85% chance that this age threshold is the best among the compared models, and is 16.8 times more likely to be the best model as compared to a threshold of 45 years. The age threshold of 55 years was found to be the best for TNM stage grouping. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

20 CFR 404.1641 - Standards of performance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

.... (a) General. The performance standards include both a target level of performance and a threshold level of performance for the State agency. The target level represents a level of performance that we and the States will work to attain in the future. The threshold level is the minimum acceptable level...

20 CFR 416.1041 - Standards of performance.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... performance. (a) General. The performance standards include both a target level of performance and a threshold level of performance for the State agency. The target level represents a level of performance that we and the States will work to attain in the future. The threshold level is the minimum acceptable level...

High thresholds for avoidance of sonar by free-ranging long-finned pilot whales (Globicephala melas).

PubMed

Antunes, R; Kvadsheim, P H; Lam, F P A; Tyack, P L; Thomas, L; Wensveen, P J; Miller, P J O

2014-06-15

The potential effects of exposing marine mammals to military sonar is a current concern. Dose-response relationships are useful for predicting potential environmental impacts of specific operations. To reveal behavioral response thresholds of exposure to sonar, we conducted 18 exposure/control approaches to 6 long-finned pilot whales. Source level and proximity of sonar transmitting one of two frequency bands (1-2 kHz and 6-7 kHz) were increased during exposure sessions. The 2-dimensional movement tracks were analyzed using a changepoint method to identify the avoidance response thresholds which were used to estimate dose-response relationships. No support for an effect of sonar frequency or previous exposures on the probability of response was found. Estimated response thresholds at which 50% of population show avoidance (SPLmax=170 dB re 1 μPa, SELcum=173 dB re 1 μPa(2) s) were higher than previously found for other cetaceans. The US Navy currently uses a generic dose-response relationship to predict the responses of cetaceans to naval active sonar, which has been found to underestimate behavioural impacts on killer whales and beaked whales. The navy curve appears to match more closely our results with long-finned pilot whales, though it might underestimate the probability of avoidance for pilot-whales at long distances from sonar sources. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fracture experience among participants from the FROCAT study: what thresholding is appropriate using the FRAX tool?

PubMed

Azagra, R; Zwart, M; Aguyé, A; Martín-Sánchez, J C; Casado, E; Díaz-Herrera, M A; Moriña, D; Cooper, C; Díez-Pérez, A; Dennison, E M

2016-01-01

To perform an external validation of FRAX algorithm thresholds for reporting level of risk of fracture in Spanish women (low < 5%; intermediate ≥ 5% and < 7.5%; high ≥ 7.5%) taken from a prospective cohort "FRIDEX". A retrospective study of 1090 women aged ≥ 40 and ≤ 90 years old obtained from the general population (FROCAT cohort). FRAX was calculated with data registered in 2002. All fractures were validated in 2012. Sensitivity analysis was performed. When analyzing the cohort (884) excluding current or past anti osteoporotic medication (AOM), using our nominated thresholds, among the 621 (70.2%) women at low risk of fracture, 5.2% [CI95%: 3.4-7.6] sustained a fragility fracture; among the 99 at intermediate risk, 12.1% [6.4-20.2]; and among the 164 defined as high risk, 15.9% [10.6-24.2]. Sensitivity analysis against model risk stratification FRIDEX of FRAX Spain shows no significant difference. By including 206 women with AOM, the sensitivity analysis shows no difference in the group of intermediate and high risk and minimal differences in the low risk group. Our findings support and validate the use of FRIDEX thresholds of FRAX when discussing the risk of fracture and the initiation of therapy with patients. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Threshold considerations in fair allocation of health resources: justice beyond scarcity.

PubMed

Alvarez, Allen Andrew A

2007-10-01

Application of egalitarian and prioritarian accounts of health resource allocation in low-income countries have both been criticized for implying distribution outcomes that allow decreasing/undermining health gains and for tolerating unacceptable standards of health care and health status that result from such allocation schemes. Insufficient health care and severe deprivation of health resources are difficult to accept even when justified by aggregative efficiency or legitimized by fair deliberative process in pursuing equality and priority oriented outcomes. I affirm the sufficientarian argument that, given extreme scarcity of public health resources in low-income countries, neither health status equality between populations nor priority for the worse off is normatively adequate. Nevertheless, the threshold norm alone need not be the sole consideration when a country's total health budget is extremely scarce. Threshold considerations are necessary in developing a theory of fair distribution of health resources that is sensitive to the lexically prior norm of sufficiency. Based on the intuition that shares must not be taken away from those who barely achieve a minimal level of health, I argue that assessments based on standards of minimal physical/mental health must be developed to evaluate the sufficiency of the total resources of health systems in low-income countries prior to pursuing equality, priority, and efficiency based resource allocation. I also begin to examine how threshold sensitive health resource assessment could be used in the Philippines.

Strict or graduated punishment? Effect of punishment strictness on the evolution of cooperation in continuous public goods games.

PubMed

Shimao, Hajime; Nakamaru, Mayuko

2013-01-01

Whether costly punishment encourages cooperation is one of the principal questions in studies on the evolution of cooperation and social sciences. In society, punishment helps deter people from flouting rules in institutions. Specifically, graduated punishment is a design principle for long-enduring common-pool resource institutions. In this study, we investigate whether graduated punishment can promote a higher cooperation level when each individual plays the public goods game and has the opportunity to punish others whose cooperation levels fall below the punisher's threshold. We then examine how spatial structure affects evolutionary dynamics when each individual dies inversely proportional to the game score resulting from the social interaction and another player is randomly chosen from the population to produce offspring to fill the empty site created after a player's death. Our evolutionary simulation outcomes demonstrate that stricter punishment promotes increased cooperation more than graduated punishment in a spatially structured population, whereas graduated punishment increases cooperation more than strict punishment when players interact with randomly chosen opponents from the population. The mathematical analysis also supports the results.

Strict or Graduated Punishment? Effect of Punishment Strictness on the Evolution of Cooperation in Continuous Public Goods Games

PubMed Central

Shimao, Hajime; Nakamaru, Mayuko

2013-01-01

Whether costly punishment encourages cooperation is one of the principal questions in studies on the evolution of cooperation and social sciences. In society, punishment helps deter people from flouting rules in institutions. Specifically, graduated punishment is a design principle for long-enduring common-pool resource institutions. In this study, we investigate whether graduated punishment can promote a higher cooperation level when each individual plays the public goods game and has the opportunity to punish others whose cooperation levels fall below the punisher’s threshold. We then examine how spatial structure affects evolutionary dynamics when each individual dies inversely proportional to the game score resulting from the social interaction and another player is randomly chosen from the population to produce offspring to fill the empty site created after a player’s death. Our evolutionary simulation outcomes demonstrate that stricter punishment promotes increased cooperation more than graduated punishment in a spatially structured population, whereas graduated punishment increases cooperation more than strict punishment when players interact with randomly chosen opponents from the population. The mathematical analysis also supports the results. PMID:23555826

Secondhand smoke and sensorineural hearing loss in adolescents.

PubMed

Lalwani, Anil K; Liu, Ying-Hua; Weitzman, Michael

2011-07-01

To investigate the hypothesis that second-hand smoke (SHS) exposure is associated with sensorineural hearing loss (SNHL) in adolescents. A complex, multistage, stratified geographic area design for collecting representative data from the noninstitutionalized US population. Cross-sectional data from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2005-2006) were available for 1533 participants 12 to 19 years of age who underwent audiometric testing, had serum cotinine levels available, and were not actively smoking. SNHL was defined as an average pure-tone level greater than 15 dB for 0.5, 1, and 2 kHz (low frequency) and 3, 4, 6, and 8 kHz (high frequency). Secondhand smoke exposure, as assessed by serum cotinine levels, was associated with elevated pure-tone hearing thresholds at 2, 3, and 4 kHz, a higher rate of unilateral low-frequency SNHL (11.8% vs 7.5%; P < .04), and a 1.83-fold increased risk of unilateral low-frequency SNHL in multivariate analyses (95% confidence interval, 1.08-3.41). The prevalence of SNHL was directly related to level of SHS exposure as reflected by serum cotinine levels. In addition, nearly 82% of adolescents with SNHL did not recognize hearing difficulties. Secondhand smoke is associated with elevated pure-tone thresholds and an increased prevalence of low-frequency SNHL that is directly related to level of exposure, and most affected individuals are unaware of the hearing loss. Thus, adolescents exposed to SHS may need to be closely monitored for early hearing loss with periodic audiologic testing.

d-Dimer as a Screening Marker for Venous Thromboembolism After Surgery Among Patients Younger Than 50 With Lower Limb Fractures.

PubMed

Yang, Yong; Zan, Pengfei; Gong, Jinpeng; Cai, Ming

2017-01-01

For the present study, the authors hypothesized that the d-dimer levels would be systematically raised in a postoperative population of patients younger than 50 with lower limb fractures and to define a feasible cutoff value for identification of venous thromboembolism (VTE). Doppler ultrasonography of lower limbs was performed pre- and postoperatively to evaluate for deep vein thrombosis in 150 patients who underwent open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF). Plasma d-dimer levels were assessed 2 days before surgery and on the 3rd, 7th, and 10th days after surgery. Statistical analysis was carried out to define a feasible threshold for the d-dimer levels. Plasma d-dimer levels were found to be systematically raised postoperatively, and they differed between patients with and without VTE significantly. On the third day after surgery, d-dimer levels of more than 3 mg/L indicated VTE with a sensitivity of 88.37% and a specificity of 96.96%, allowing for the definition of a feasible cutoff value. Duration of surgery, duration of tourniquet, ventilation time, and time of postoperative immobility of lower limbs were identified as highly significant risk factors for the development of VTE. Using a threshold of 3 mg/L, the d-dimer levels will screen out VTE with a high degree of sensitivity and specificity in younger patients who have undergone ORIF for lower limb fractures. © The Author(s) 2015.

Is There a Threshold Concentration of Cat Allergen Exposure on Respiratory Symptoms in Adults?

PubMed Central

Zock, Jan-Paul; Villani, Simona; Olivieri, Mario; Modig, Lars; Jarvis, Deborah; Norbäck, Dan; Verlato, Giuseppe; Heinrich, Joachim

2015-01-01

Background and Objective Cat allergen concentrations higher than 8 μg/g in settled house dust, have been suggested to provoke exacerbation of allergic respiratory symptoms. However, whether the 8μg/g of indoor cat allergen concentration is indeed the minimal exposure required for triggering the asthma related respiratory symptoms or the development of sensitization has not yet been confirmed. We studied the associations between domestic cat allergen concentrations and allergic symptoms in the European Community Respiratory Health Survey II, with the aim of confirming this suggested threshold. Methods Cat allergen concentrations were measured in the mattress dust of 3003 participants from 22 study centres. Levels of specific immunoglobulin E to cat allergens were measured in serum samples using an immunoassay. Information on allergic symptoms, medication use, home environment and smoking was obtained from a face-to-face interview. Results Domestic cat allergen concentrations were not associated with allergic/ asthmatic symptoms in the entire study population, nor in the subset sensitized to cat allergen. We also found no association among individuals exposed to concentrations higher than 8 μg/g. However, exposure to medium cat allergen concentrations (0.24-0.63 μg/g) was positively associated with reported asthmatic respiratory symptoms in subjects who have experienced allergic symptoms when near animals. Conclusions The proposed 8 μg/g threshold of cat allergen concentrations for the exacerbation of allergic/ respiratory symptoms was not confirmed in a general European adult population. Potential biases attributable to avoidance behaviours and an imprecise exposure assessment cannot be excluded. PMID:26035304

Increased vitamin plasma levels in Swedish military personnel treated with nutrients prior to automatic weapon training

PubMed Central

Le Prell, C. G.; Johnson, A.-C.; Lindblad, A.-C.; Skjönsberg, Å.; Ulfendahl, M.; Guire, K.; Green, G. E.; Campbell, K. C. M.; Miller, J. M.

2013-01-01

Noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) is a significant clinical, social, and economic issue. The development of novel therapeutic agents to reduce NIHL will potentially benefit multiple very large noise-exposed populations. Oxidative stress has been identified as a significant contributor to noise-induced sensory cell death and noise-induced hearing loss, and several antioxidant strategies have now been suggested for potential translation to human subjects. One such strategy is a combination of beta-carotene, vitamins C and E, and magnesium, which has shown promise for protection against NIHL in rodent models, and is being evaluated in a series of international human clinical trials using temporary (military gunfire, audio player use) and permanent (stamping factory, military airbase) threshold shift models (NCT00808470). The noise exposures used in the recently completed Swedish military gunfire study described in this report did not, on average, result in measurable changes in auditory function using conventional pure-tone thresholds and distortion product otoacoustic emission (DPOAE) amplitudes as metrics. However, analysis of the plasma samples confirmed significant elevations in the bloodstream 2 hours after oral consumption of active clinical supplies, indicating the dose is realistic. The plasma outcomes are encouraging, but clinical acceptance of any novel therapeutic critically depends on demonstration that the agent reduces noise-induced threshold shift in randomized, placebo-controlled, prospective human clinical trials. Although this noise insult did not induce hearing loss, the trial design and study protocol can be applied to other populations exposed to different noise insults. PMID:22122960

Male Kirtland's Warblers' patch-level response to landscape structure during periods of varying population size and habitat amounts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donner, D.M.; Ribic, C.A.; Probst, J.R.

2009-01-01

Forest planners must evaluate how spatiotemporal changes in habitat amount and configuration across the landscape as a result of timber management will affect species' persistence. However, there are few long-term programs available for evaluation. We investigated the response of male Kirtland's Warbler (Dendroica kirtlandii) to 26 years of changing patch and landscape structure during a large, 26-year forestry-habitat restoration program within the warbler's primary breeding range. We found that the average density of male Kirtland's Warblers was related to a different combination of patch and landscape attributes depending on the species' regional population level and habitat amounts on the landscape (early succession jack pine (Pinus banksiana) forests; 15-42% habitat cover). Specifically, patch age and habitat regeneration type were important at low male population and total habitat amounts, while patch age and distance to an occupied patch were important at relatively high population and habitat amounts. Patch age and size were more important at increasing population levels and an intermediate amount of habitat. The importance of patch age to average male density during all periods reflects the temporal buildup and decline of male numbers as habitat suitability within the patch changed with succession. Habitat selection (i.e., preference for wildfire-regenerated habitat) and availability may explain the importance of habitat type and patch size during lower population and habitat levels. The relationship between male density and distance when there was the most habitat on the landscape and the male population was large and still increasing may be explained by the widening spatial dispersion of the increasing male population at the regional scale. Because creating or preserving habitat is not a random process, management efforts would benefit from more investigations of managed population responses to changes in spatial structure that occur through habitat gain rather than habitat loss to further our empirical understanding of general principles of the fragmentation process and habitat cover threshold effects within dynamic landscapes.

Evaluation of Mandarin Chinese Speech Recognition in Adults with Cochlear Implants Using the Spectral Ripple Discrimination Test

PubMed Central

Dai, Chuanfu; Zhao, Zeqi; Zhang, Duo; Lei, Guanxiong

2018-01-01

Background The aim of this study was to explore the value of the spectral ripple discrimination test in speech recognition evaluation among a deaf (post-lingual) Mandarin-speaking population in China following cochlear implantation. Material/Methods The study included 23 Mandarin-speaking adult subjects with normal hearing (normal-hearing group) and 17 deaf adults who were former Mandarin-speakers, with cochlear implants (cochlear implantation group). The normal-hearing subjects were divided into men (n=10) and women (n=13). The spectral ripple discrimination thresholds between the groups were compared. The correlation between spectral ripple discrimination thresholds and Mandarin speech recognition rates in the cochlear implantation group were studied. Results Spectral ripple discrimination thresholds did not correlate with age (r=−0.19; p=0.22), and there was no significant difference in spectral ripple discrimination thresholds between the male and female groups (p=0.654). Spectral ripple discrimination thresholds of deaf adults with cochlear implants were significantly correlated with monosyllabic recognition rates (r=0.84; p=0.000). Conclusions In a Mandarin Chinese speaking population, spectral ripple discrimination thresholds of normal-hearing individuals were unaffected by both gender and age. Spectral ripple discrimination thresholds were correlated with Mandarin monosyllabic recognition rates of Mandarin-speaking in post-lingual deaf adults with cochlear implants. The spectral ripple discrimination test is a promising method for speech recognition evaluation in adults following cochlear implantation in China. PMID:29806954

Evaluation of Mandarin Chinese Speech Recognition in Adults with Cochlear Implants Using the Spectral Ripple Discrimination Test.

PubMed

Dai, Chuanfu; Zhao, Zeqi; Shen, Weidong; Zhang, Duo; Lei, Guanxiong; Qiao, Yuehua; Yang, Shiming

2018-05-28

BACKGROUND The aim of this study was to explore the value of the spectral ripple discrimination test in speech recognition evaluation among a deaf (post-lingual) Mandarin-speaking population in China following cochlear implantation. MATERIAL AND METHODS The study included 23 Mandarin-speaking adult subjects with normal hearing (normal-hearing group) and 17 deaf adults who were former Mandarin-speakers, with cochlear implants (cochlear implantation group). The normal-hearing subjects were divided into men (n=10) and women (n=13). The spectral ripple discrimination thresholds between the groups were compared. The correlation between spectral ripple discrimination thresholds and Mandarin speech recognition rates in the cochlear implantation group were studied. RESULTS Spectral ripple discrimination thresholds did not correlate with age (r=-0.19; p=0.22), and there was no significant difference in spectral ripple discrimination thresholds between the male and female groups (p=0.654). Spectral ripple discrimination thresholds of deaf adults with cochlear implants were significantly correlated with monosyllabic recognition rates (r=0.84; p=0.000). CONCLUSIONS In a Mandarin Chinese speaking population, spectral ripple discrimination thresholds of normal-hearing individuals were unaffected by both gender and age. Spectral ripple discrimination thresholds were correlated with Mandarin monosyllabic recognition rates of Mandarin-speaking in post-lingual deaf adults with cochlear implants. The spectral ripple discrimination test is a promising method for speech recognition evaluation in adults following cochlear implantation in China.

Spatial vulnerability of Australian urban populations to extreme heat events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel; Phan, Thu; Lynch, Kellie; McInnes, Judith

2013-04-01

Extreme heat events pose a risk to the health of all individuals, especially the elderly and the chronically ill, and are associated with an increased demand for healthcare services. In order to address this problem, policy makers' need information about temperatures above which mortality and morbidity of the exposed population is likely to increase, where the vulnerable groups in the community are located, and how the risks from extreme heat events are likely to change in the future. This study identified threshold temperatures for all Australian capital cities, developed a spatial index of population vulnerability, and used climate model output to predict changes in the number of days exceeding temperature thresholds in the future, as well as changes in risk related to changes in urban density and an ageing population. The study has shown that daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts can be used to calculate temperature thresholds for heat alert days. The key risk factors related to adverse health outcomes were found to be areas with intense urban heat islands, areas with higher proportions of older people, and areas with ethnic communities. Maps of spatial vulnerability have been developed to provide information to assist emergency managers, healthcare professionals, and ancillary services develop heatwave preparedness plans at a local scale that target vulnerable groups and address heat-related health risks. The numbers of days exceeding current heat thresholds are predicted to increase over the next 20 to 40 years in all Australian capital cities.

Multivariate Analyses of Balance Test Performance, Vestibular Thresholds, and Age

PubMed Central

Karmali, Faisal; Bermúdez Rey, María Carolina; Clark, Torin K.; Wang, Wei; Merfeld, Daniel M.

2017-01-01

We previously published vestibular perceptual thresholds and performance in the Modified Romberg Test of Standing Balance in 105 healthy humans ranging from ages 18 to 80 (1). Self-motion thresholds in the dark included roll tilt about an earth-horizontal axis at 0.2 and 1 Hz, yaw rotation about an earth-vertical axis at 1 Hz, y-translation (interaural/lateral) at 1 Hz, and z-translation (vertical) at 1 Hz. In this study, we focus on multiple variable analyses not reported in the earlier study. Specifically, we investigate correlations (1) among the five thresholds measured and (2) between thresholds, age, and the chance of failing condition 4 of the balance test, which increases vestibular reliance by having subjects stand on foam with eyes closed. We found moderate correlations (0.30–0.51) between vestibular thresholds for different motions, both before and after using our published aging regression to remove age effects. We found that lower or higher thresholds across all threshold measures are an individual trait that account for about 60% of the variation in the population. This can be further distributed into two components with about 20% of the variation explained by aging and 40% of variation explained by a single principal component that includes similar contributions from all threshold measures. When only roll tilt 0.2 Hz thresholds and age were analyzed together, we found that the chance of failing condition 4 depends significantly on both (p = 0.006 and p = 0.013, respectively). An analysis incorporating more variables found that the chance of failing condition 4 depended significantly only on roll tilt 0.2 Hz thresholds (p = 0.046) and not age (p = 0.10), sex nor any of the other four threshold measures, suggesting that some of the age effect might be captured by the fact that vestibular thresholds increase with age. For example, at 60 years of age, the chance of failing is roughly 5% for the lowest roll tilt thresholds in our population, but this increases to 80% for the highest roll tilt thresholds. These findings demonstrate the importance of roll tilt vestibular cues for balance, even in individuals reporting no vestibular symptoms and with no evidence of vestibular dysfunction. PMID:29167656

Prolonged noise exposure-induced auditory threshold shifts in rats

PubMed Central

Chen, Guang-Di; Decker, Brandon; Muthaiah, Vijaya Prakash Krishnan; Sheppard, Adam; Salvi, Richard

2014-01-01

Noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) initially increases with exposure duration, but eventually reaches an asymptotic threshold shift (ATS) once the exposure duration exceeds 18-24 h. Equations for predicting the ATS have been developed for several species, but not for rats, even though this species is extensively used in noise exposure research. To fill this void, we exposed rats to narrowband noise (NBN, 16-20 kHz) for 5 weeks starting at 80 dB SPL in the first week and then increasing the level by 6 dB per week to a final level of 104 dB SPL. Auditory brainstem responses (ABR) were recorded before, during, and following the exposure to determine the amount of hearing loss. The noise induced threshold shift to continuous long-term exposure, defined as compound threshold shift (CTS), within and above 16-20 kHz increased with noise level at the rate of 1.82 dB threshold shift per dB of noise level (NL) above a critical level (C) of 77.2 dB SPL i.e. CTS = 1.82(NL-77.2). The normalized amplitude of the largest ABR peak measured at 100 dB SPL decreased at the rate of 3.1% per dB of NL above the critical level of 76.9 dB SPL, i.e., %ABR Reduction = 3.1%(NL-76.9). ABR thresholds measured >30 days post-exposure only partially recovered resulting in a permanent threshold shift of 30-40 dB along with severe hair cell loss in the basal, high-frequency region of the cochlea. In the rat, CTS increases with noise level with a slope similar to humans and chinchillas. The critical level (C) in the rat is similar to that of humans, but higher than that of chinchillas. PMID:25219503

Noise-induced hearing loss in young adults: the role of personal listening devices and other sources of leisure noise.

PubMed

Mostafapour, S P; Lahargoue, K; Gates, G A

1998-12-01

No consensus exists regarding the magnitude of the risk of noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL) associated with leisure noise, in particular, personal listening devices in young adults. Examine the magnitude of hearing loss associated with personal listening devices and other sources of leisure noise in causing NIHL in young adults. Prospective auditory testing of college student volunteers with retrospective history exposure to home stereos, personal listening devices, firearms, and other sources of recreational noise. Subjects underwent audiologic examination consisting of estimation of pure-tone thresholds, speech reception thresholds, and word recognition at 45 dB HL. Fifty subjects aged 18 to 30 years were tested. All hearing thresholds of all subjects (save one-a unilateral 30 dB HL threshold at 6 kHz) were normal, (i.e., 25 dB HL or better). A 10 dB threshold elevation (notch) in either ear at 3 to 6 kHz as compared with neighboring frequencies was noted in 11 (22%) subjects and an unequivocal notch (15 dB or greater) in either ear was noted in 14 (28%) of subjects. The presence or absence of any notch (small or large) did not correlate with any single or cumulative source of noise exposure. No difference in pure-tone threshold, speech reception threshold, or speech discrimination was found among subjects when segregated by noise exposure level. The majority of young users of personal listening devices are at low risk for substantive NIHL. Interpretation of the significance of these findings in relation to noise exposure must be made with caution. NIHL is an additive process and even subtle deficits may contribute to unequivocal hearing loss with continued exposure. The low prevalence of measurable deficits in this study group may not exclude more substantive deficits in other populations with greater exposures. Continued education of young people about the risk to hearing from recreational noise exposure is warranted.

Forest Loss and the Biodiversity Threshold: An Evaluation Considering Species Habitat Requirements and the Use of Matrix Habitats

PubMed Central

Estavillo, Candelaria; Pardini, Renata; da Rocha, Pedro Luís Bernardo

2013-01-01

Habitat loss is the main driver of the current biodiversity crisis, a landscape-scale process that affects the survival of spatially-structured populations. Although it is well-established that species responses to habitat loss can be abrupt, the existence of a biodiversity threshold is still the cause of much controversy in the literature and would require that most species respond similarly to the loss of native vegetation. Here we test the existence of a biodiversity threshold, i.e. an abrupt decline in species richness, with habitat loss. We draw on a spatially-replicated dataset on Atlantic forest small mammals, consisting of 16 sampling sites divided between forests and matrix habitats in each of five 3600-ha landscapes (varying from 5% to 45% forest cover), and on an a priori classification of species into habitat requirement categories (forest specialists, habitat generalists and open-area specialists). Forest specialists declined abruptly below 30% of forest cover, and spillover to the matrix occurred only in more forested landscapes. Generalists responded positively to landscape heterogeneity, peaking at intermediary levels of forest cover. Open area specialists dominated the matrix and did not spillover to forests. As a result of these distinct responses, we observed a biodiversity threshold for the small mammal community below 30% forest cover, and a peak in species richness just above this threshold. Our results highlight that cross habitat spillover may be asymmetrical and contingent on landscape context, occurring mainly from forests to the matrix and only in more forested landscapes. Moreover, they indicate the potential for biodiversity thresholds in human-modified landscapes, and the importance of landscape heterogeneity to biodiversity. Since forest loss affected not only the conservation value of forest patches, but also the potential for biodiversity-mediated services in anthropogenic habitats, our work indicates the importance of proactive measures to avoid human-modified landscapes to cross this threshold. PMID:24324776

Vibrotactile perception threshold measurements for diagnosis of sensory neuropathy. Description of a reference population.

PubMed

Lundström, R; Strömberg, T; Lundborg, G

1992-01-01

Recognition of the fact that impairment of the tactile sense may occur independently of other disturbances in the vibration syndrome has rekindled an interest in developing a diagnostic method for early detection of vibration-induced neuropathy. There is also evidence suggesting that vibrotactile measurements represent a valuable diagnostic tool in compressive neuropathies, such as the carpal tunnel syndrome. The method may also become useful for diagnosing sensory neuropathies caused by other factors, such as solvents, pesticides, heavy metals, alcoholism, and diabetes. However, before vibrotactile measurement can be accepted and established as a tool for clinical diagnostic purposes, for screening, and in research, the level and the shape of the normal threshold curve have to be specified. With the purpose of assembling normative data, the vibrotactile perception thresholds (8-500 Hz) of the right index fingertip were measured in 171 healthy males (19-75 years) not exposed to vibration. A Békésy audiometer was modified to operate in combination with a vibration exciter, instead of headphones, at frequencies lower than usual (8-500 Hz). The results showed that the perception thresholds increased from about 100 dB to about 140 dB (rel. 10(-6) m/s2rms) as a function of frequency and age. The frequency-dependent changes were not linear, however, but displayed a peak in sensitivity at 125 Hz. Threshold changes due to aging were most pronounced at the highest frequencies. It is of the utmost importance that these natural changes are taken into account when making comparisons between groups or individuals.

Diagnostic Dilemma for Low Viremia with Significant Fibrosis; Is HBV DNA Threshold Level a Good Indicator for Predicting Liver Damage?

PubMed

Yenilmez, Ercan; Çetinkaya, Rıza Aytaç; Tural, Ersin

2018-05-04

The most important difficulties about management of hepatitis B are still determining the liver damage and the right time to start antiviral therapy. To reveal the role of hepatitis B virus DNA threshold level for prediction of liver fibrosis and inflammation in young-aged hepatitis B e antigen negative chronic hepatitis B patients. Diagnostic accuracy study. A total of 273 hepatitis B e antigen negative young chronic hepatitis B patients with any hepatitis B virus DNA levels between 2008 and 2016, who had liver biopsy after at least 6 months follow up period, enrolled in this retrospective study. We created two groups as case and control, cases with hepatitis B virus DNA levels below 2.000 IU/mL and controls with hepatitis B virus DNA levels over 2.000 IU/mL. Having histological activity index ≥4 or/and fibrosis scores ≥2 were defined as significant histological abnormality. Then, we analyzed the relationship between these groups. We showed that significant fibrosis may occur in one third of young chronic hepatitis B patients with low viremia (30.2%, n=42/139 in cases, %55.2, n=74/134 in controls). Among the 42 cases with low viremia and significant fibrosis, 21.4% had alanine aminotransferase level between 40-59 U/L, 42.8% had alanine aminotransferase level between 60-79 U/L, and 35.7% had alanine aminotransferase level over 80 U/L. There was weak correlation between hepatitis B virus DNA threshold level and fibrosis score (p=0.000, rho=0.253). The optimum serum hepatitis B virus DNA threshold level in our study for predicting significant fibrosis was 1293 IU/mL (p=0.00, AUC: 0.657±0.034). The optimum alanine aminotransferase threshold level for predicting significant histological activity index and fibrosis was 64.5 and 59.5 U/L, respectively. The sensitivity and the specificity of 1293 vs 2000 IU/mL hepatitis B virus DNA threshold with 60 U/L alanine aminotransferase threshold level for predicting F≥2 fibrosis score were similar (sensitivity: 0.43 and 0.38, respectively; specificity: 0.76 and 0.77, respectively). Significant fibrosis may occur even in young cases with low viremia. It is not possible to define a single threshold hepatitis B virus DNA level for differentiating inactive carriers from patients with hepatitis B e antigen-negative chronic hepatitis. Diagnostic accuracy of hepatitis B virus DNA with alanine aminotransferase thresholds for the prediction of significant fibrosis is weak.

Air pollution and mortality: A history

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, H. R.

Mortality is the most important health effect of ambient air pollution and has been studied the longest. The earliest evidence relates to fog episodes but with the development of more precise methods of investigation it is still possible to discern short-term temporal associations with daily mortality at the historically low levels of air pollution that now exist in most developed countries. Another early observation was that mortality was higher in more polluted areas. This has been confirmed by modern cohort studies that account for other potential explanations for such associations. There does not appear to be a threshold of effect within the ambient range of concentrations. Advances in the understanding of air pollution and mortality have been driven by the combined development of methods and biomedical concepts. The most influential methodological developments have been in time-series techniques and the establishment of large cohort studies, both of which are underpinned by advances in data processing and statistical analysis. On the biomedical side two important developments can be identified. One has been the application of the concept of multifactorial disease causation to explaining how air pollution may affect mortality at low levels and why thresholds are not obvious at the population level. The other has been an increasing understanding of how air pollution may plausibly have pathophysiological effects that are remote from the lung interface with ambient air. Together, these advances have had a profound influence on policies to protect public health. Throughout the history of air pollution epidemiology, mortality studies have been central and this will continue because of the widespread availability of mortality data on a large population scale and the weight that mortality carries in estimating impacts for policy development.

Mercury concentrations in China's coastal waters and implications for fish consumption by vulnerable populations.

PubMed

Tong, Yindong; Wang, Mengzhu; Bu, Xiaoge; Guo, Xin; Lin, Yan; Lin, Huiming; Li, Jing; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Xuejun

2017-12-01

We assessed mercury (Hg) pollution in China's coastal waters, including the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, based on a nationwide dataset from 301 sampling sites. A methylmercury (MeHg) intake model for humans based on the marine food chain and human fish consumption was established to determine the linkage between water pollutants and the pollutant intake by humans. The predicted MeHg concentration in fish from the Bohai Sea was the highest among the four seas included in the study. The MeHg intake through dietary ingestion was dominant for the fish and was considerably higher than the MeHg intake through water respiration. The predicted MeHg concentrations in human blood in the coastal regions of China ranged from 1.37 to 2.77 μg/L for pregnant woman and from 0.43 to 1.00 μg/L for infants, respectively, based on different diet sources. The carnivorous fish consumption advisory for pregnant women was estimated to be 288-654 g per week to maintain MeHg concentrations in human blood at levels below the threshold level (4.4 μg/L established by the US Environmental Protection Agency). With a 50% increase in Hg concentrations in water in the Bohai Sea, the bioaccumulated MeHg concentration (4.5 μg/L) in the fish consumers will be higher than the threshold level. This study demonstrates the importance in controlling Hg pollution in China's coastal waters. An official recommendation guideline for the fish consumption rate and its sources will be necessary for vulnerable populations in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Variations in BMI and prevalence of health risks in diverse racial and ethnic populations.

PubMed

Stommel, Manfred; Schoenborn, Charlotte A

2010-09-01

When examining health risks associated with the BMI, investigators often rely on the customary BMI thresholds of the 1995 World Health Organization report. However, within-interval variations in morbidity and mortality can be substantial, and the thresholds do not necessarily correspond to identifiable risk increases. Comparing the prevalence of hypertension, diabetes, coronary heart disease (CHD), asthma, and arthritis among non-Hispanic whites, blacks, East Asians and Hispanics, we examine differences in the BMI-health-risk relationships for small BMI increments. The analysis is based on 11 years of data of the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS), with a sample size of 337,375 for the combined 1997-2007 Sample Adult. The analysis uses multivariate logistic regression models, employing a nonparametric approach to modeling the BMI-health-risk relationship, while relying on narrowly defined BMI categories. Rising BMI levels are associated with higher levels of chronic disease burdens in four major racial and ethnic groups, even after adjusting for many socio-demographic characteristics and three important health-related behaviors (smoking, physical activity, alcohol consumption). For all population groups, except East Asians, a modestly higher disease risk was noted for persons with a BMI <20 compared with persons with BMI in the range of 20-21. Using five chronic conditions as risk criteria, a categorization of the BMI into normal weight, overweight, or obesity appears arbitrary. Although the prevalence of disease risks differs among racial and ethnic groups regardless of BMI levels, the evidence presented here does not support the notion that the BMI-health-risk profile of East Asians and others warrants race-specific BMI cutoff points.

PU.1 regulates TCR expression by modulating GATA-3 activity

PubMed Central

Chang, Hua-Chen; Han, Ling; Jabeen, Rukhsana; Carotta, Sebastian; Nutt, Stephen L.; Kaplan, Mark H.

2009-01-01

The Ets transcription factor PU.1 is a master regulator for the development of multiple lineages during hematopoiesis. The expression pattern of PU.1 is dynamically regulated during early T lineage development in the thymus. We previously revealed that PU.1 delineates heterogeneity of effector Th2 populations. In this study, we further define the function of PU.1 on the Th2 phenotype using mice that specifically lack PU.1 in T cells using an lck-Cre transgene with a conditional Sfpi1 allele (Sfpi1lck-/-). While deletion of PU.1 by the lck-Cre transgene does not affect T cell development, Sfpi1lck-/- T cells have a lower activation threshold than wild type T cells. When TCR engagement is limiting, Sfpi1lck-/- T cells cultured in Th2 polarizing conditions secrete higher levels of Th2 cytokines and have greater cytokine homogeneity than wild type cells. We show that PU.1 modulates the levels of TCR expression in CD4+ T cells by regulating the DNA-binding activity of GATA-3 and limiting GATA-3 regulation of TCR gene expression. GATA-3 dependent regulation of TCR expression is also observed in Th1 and Th2 cells. In CD4+ T cells, PU.1 expression segregates into subpopulations of cells that have lower levels of surface TCR, suggesting that PU.1 contributes to the heterogeneity of TCR expression. Thus, we have identified a mechanism whereby increased GATA-3 function in the absence of the antagonizing activity of PU.1 leads to increased TCR expression, a reduced activation threshold and increased homogeneity in Th2 populations. PMID:19801513

Genetic parameters of body weight and ascites in broilers: effect of different incidence rates of ascites syndrome.

PubMed

Ahmadpanah, J; Ghavi Hossein-Zadeh, N; Shadparvar, A A; Pakdel, A

2017-02-01

1. The objectives of the current study were to investigate the effect of incidence rate (5%, 10%, 20%, 30% and 50%) of ascites syndrome on the expression of genetic characteristics for body weight at 5 weeks of age (BW5) and AS and to compare different methods of genetic parameter estimation for these traits. 2. Based on stochastic simulation, a population with discrete generations was created in which random mating was used for 10 generations. Two methods of restricted maximum likelihood and Bayesian approach via Gibbs sampling were used for the estimation of genetic parameters. A bivariate model including maternal effects was used. The root mean square error for direct heritabilities was also calculated. 3. The results showed that when incidence rates of ascites increased from 5% to 30%, the heritability of AS increased from 0.013 and 0.005 to 0.110 and 0.162 for linear and threshold models, respectively. 4. Maternal effects were significant for both BW5 and AS. Genetic correlations were decreased by increasing incidence rates of ascites in the population from 0.678 and 0.587 at 5% level of ascites to 0.393 and -0.260 at 50% occurrence for linear and threshold models, respectively. 5. The RMSE of direct heritability from true values for BW5 was greater based on a linear-threshold model compared with the linear model of analysis (0.0092 vs. 0.0015). The RMSE of direct heritability from true values for AS was greater based on a linear-linear model (1.21 vs. 1.14). 6. In order to rank birds for ascites incidence, it is recommended to use a threshold model because it resulted in higher heritability estimates compared with the linear model and that BW5 could be one of the main components of selection goals.

Acid sensitization of esophageal mucosal afferents: implication for symptom perception in patients across the gastroesophageal reflux disease spectrum.

PubMed

Szczesniak, Michal Marcin; Fuentealba, Sergio Enrique; Cook, Ian J

2013-01-01

Sensitization of esophageal chemoreceptors, either directly by intermittent acid exposure or indirectly through esophagitis-associated inflammatory mediators, is likely to be the mechanism underlying the perception of heartburn. To compare basal esophageal sensitivity with electrical stimulation and acid, and to compare the degree of acid-induced sensitization in controls and in patient groups across the entire spectrum of gastroesophageal reflux disease: erosive oesophagitis (EO), nonerosive reflux disease (NERD), and functional heartburn (FH). Esophageal sensory and pain thresholds to electrical stimulation were measured before, 30, and 60 minutes after an intraesophageal infusion of saline or HCl. Patients received a 30-minute infusion of 0.15 M HCl and controls were randomized to receive either HCl (n = 11) or saline (n = 10). After electrical sensory threshold testing, participants received another 30-minute infusion of HCl to determine whether sensitivity to acid is increased by prior acid exposure All patient groups had higher basal sensory thresholds than healthy controls (controls, 13 ± 1.4 mA; FH, 20 ± 5.1 mA; NERD, 21 ± 5.1 mA; EO, 23 ± 5.4 mA; P < 0.05). Acute esophageal acid exposure reduced sensory thresholds to electrical stimulation in FH and NERD patients (P < 0.05). The level of acid sensitivity during the first HCl infusion was comparable between all patient groups and controls. The secondary infusion caused increased discomfort in all participants (P < 0.01). This acid-induced sensitization to HCl was significantly elevated in the patient groups ( P < 0.05). (1) Esophageal acid infusion sensitizes it to subsequent electrical and chemical stimulation. (2) The acid-related sensitization is greater in gastroesophageal reflux disease than in controls and may influence in part symptom perception in this population. (3) Acid-related sensitization within the gastroesophageal reflux disease population is not dependant on mucosal inflammation.

Criterion and Concurrent Validity of the activPAL™ Professional Physical Activity Monitor in Adolescent Females

PubMed Central

Dowd, Kieran P.; Harrington, Deirdre M.; Donnelly, Alan E.

2012-01-01

Background The activPAL has been identified as an accurate and reliable measure of sedentary behaviour. However, only limited information is available on the accuracy of the activPAL activity count function as a measure of physical activity, while no unit calibration of the activPAL has been completed to date. This study aimed to investigate the criterion validity of the activPAL, examine the concurrent validity of the activPAL, and perform and validate a value calibration of the activPAL in an adolescent female population. The performance of the activPAL in estimating posture was also compared with sedentary thresholds used with the ActiGraph accelerometer. Methodologies Thirty adolescent females (15 developmental; 15 cross-validation) aged 15–18 years performed 5 activities while wearing the activPAL, ActiGraph GT3X, and the Cosmed K4B2. A random coefficient statistics model examined the relationship between metabolic equivalent (MET) values and activPAL counts. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was used to determine activity thresholds and for cross-validation. The random coefficient statistics model showed a concordance correlation coefficient of 0.93 (standard error of the estimate = 1.13). An optimal moderate threshold of 2997 was determined using mixed regression, while an optimal vigorous threshold of 8229 was determined using receiver operating statistics. The activPAL count function demonstrated very high concurrent validity (r = 0.96, p<0.01) with the ActiGraph count function. Levels of agreement for sitting, standing, and stepping between direct observation and the activPAL and ActiGraph were 100%, 98.1%, 99.2% and 100%, 0%, 100%, respectively. Conclusions These findings suggest that the activPAL is a valid, objective measurement tool that can be used for both the measurement of physical activity and sedentary behaviours in an adolescent female population. PMID:23094069

Identification of a Hemolysis Threshold That Increases Plasma and Serum Zinc Concentration.

PubMed

Killilea, David W; Rohner, Fabian; Ghosh, Shibani; Otoo, Gloria E; Smith, Lauren; Siekmann, Jonathan H; King, Janet C

2017-06-01

Background: Plasma or serum zinc concentration (PZC or SZC) is the primary measure of zinc status, but accurate sampling requires controlling for hemolysis to prevent leakage of zinc from erythrocytes. It is not established how much hemolysis can occur without changing PZC/SZC concentrations. Objective: This study determines a guideline for the level of hemolysis that can significantly elevate PZC/SZC. Methods: The effect of hemolysis on PZC/SZC was estimated by using standard hematologic variables and mineral content. The calculated hemolysis threshold was then compared with results from an in vitro study and a population survey. Hemolysis was assessed by hemoglobin and iron concentrations, direct spectrophotometry, and visual assessment of the plasma or serum. Zinc and iron concentrations were determined by inductively coupled plasma spectrometry. Results: A 5% increase in PZC/SZC was calculated to result from the lysis of 1.15% of the erythrocytes in whole blood, corresponding to ∼1 g hemoglobin/L added into the plasma or serum. Similarly, the addition of simulated hemolysate to control plasma in vitro caused a 5% increase in PZC when hemoglobin concentrations reached 1.18 ± 0.10 g/L. In addition, serum samples from a population nutritional survey were scored for hemolysis and analyzed for changes in SZC; samples with hemolysis in the range of 1-2.5 g hemoglobin/L showed an estimated increase in SZC of 6% compared with nonhemolyzed samples. Each approach indicated that a 5% increase in PZC/SZC occurs at ∼1 g hemoglobin/L in plasma or serum. This concentration of hemoglobin can be readily identified directly by chemical hemoglobin assays or indirectly by direct spectrophotometry or matching to a color scale. Conclusions: A threshold of 1 g hemoglobin/L is recommended for PZC/SZC measurements to avoid increases in zinc caused by hemolysis. The use of this threshold may improve zinc assessment for monitoring zinc status and nutritional interventions.

Identification of a Hemolysis Threshold That Increases Plasma and Serum Zinc Concentration123

PubMed Central

Otoo, Gloria E; Smith, Lauren; Siekmann, Jonathan H

2017-01-01

Background: Plasma or serum zinc concentration (PZC or SZC) is the primary measure of zinc status, but accurate sampling requires controlling for hemolysis to prevent leakage of zinc from erythrocytes. It is not established how much hemolysis can occur without changing PZC/SZC concentrations. Objective: This study determines a guideline for the level of hemolysis that can significantly elevate PZC/SZC. Methods: The effect of hemolysis on PZC/SZC was estimated by using standard hematologic variables and mineral content. The calculated hemolysis threshold was then compared with results from an in vitro study and a population survey. Hemolysis was assessed by hemoglobin and iron concentrations, direct spectrophotometry, and visual assessment of the plasma or serum. Zinc and iron concentrations were determined by inductively coupled plasma spectrometry. Results: A 5% increase in PZC/SZC was calculated to result from the lysis of 1.15% of the erythrocytes in whole blood, corresponding to ∼1 g hemoglobin/L added into the plasma or serum. Similarly, the addition of simulated hemolysate to control plasma in vitro caused a 5% increase in PZC when hemoglobin concentrations reached 1.18 ± 0.10 g/L. In addition, serum samples from a population nutritional survey were scored for hemolysis and analyzed for changes in SZC; samples with hemolysis in the range of 1–2.5 g hemoglobin/L showed an estimated increase in SZC of 6% compared with nonhemolyzed samples. Each approach indicated that a 5% increase in PZC/SZC occurs at ∼1 g hemoglobin/L in plasma or serum. This concentration of hemoglobin can be readily identified directly by chemical hemoglobin assays or indirectly by direct spectrophotometry or matching to a color scale. Conclusions: A threshold of 1 g hemoglobin/L is recommended for PZC/SZC measurements to avoid increases in zinc caused by hemolysis. The use of this threshold may improve zinc assessment for monitoring zinc status and nutritional interventions. PMID:28490675

Performance breakdown in optimal stimulus decoding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostal, Lubomir; Lansky, Petr; Pilarski, Stevan

2015-06-01

Objective. One of the primary goals of neuroscience is to understand how neurons encode and process information about their environment. The problem is often approached indirectly by examining the degree to which the neuronal response reflects the stimulus feature of interest. Approach. In this context, the methods of signal estimation and detection theory provide the theoretical limits on the decoding accuracy with which the stimulus can be identified. The Cramér-Rao lower bound on the decoding precision is widely used, since it can be evaluated easily once the mathematical model of the stimulus-response relationship is determined. However, little is known about the behavior of different decoding schemes with respect to the bound if the neuronal population size is limited. Main results. We show that under broad conditions the optimal decoding displays a threshold-like shift in performance in dependence on the population size. The onset of the threshold determines a critical range where a small increment in size, signal-to-noise ratio or observation time yields a dramatic gain in the decoding precision. Significance. We demonstrate the existence of such threshold regions in early auditory and olfactory information coding. We discuss the origin of the threshold effect and its impact on the design of effective coding approaches in terms of relevant population size.

Influence of network dynamics on the spread of sexually transmitted diseases.

PubMed

Risau-Gusman, Sebastián

2012-06-07

Network epidemiology often assumes that the relationships defining the social network of a population are static. The dynamics of relationships is only taken indirectly into account by assuming that the relevant information to study epidemic spread is encoded in the network obtained, by considering numbers of partners accumulated over periods of time roughly proportional to the infectious period of the disease. On the other hand, models explicitly including social dynamics are often too schematic to provide a reasonable representation of a real population, or so detailed that no general conclusions can be drawn from them. Here, we present a model of social dynamics that is general enough so its parameters can be obtained by fitting data from surveys about sexual behaviour, but that can still be studied analytically, using mean-field techniques. This allows us to obtain some general results about epidemic spreading. We show that using accumulated network data to estimate the static epidemic threshold lead to a significant underestimation of that threshold. We also show that, for a dynamic network, the relative epidemic threshold is an increasing function of the infectious period of the disease, implying that the static value is a lower bound to the real threshold. A practical example is given of how to apply the model to the study of a real population.

Influence of network dynamics on the spread of sexually transmitted diseases

PubMed Central

Risau-Gusman, Sebastián

2012-01-01

Network epidemiology often assumes that the relationships defining the social network of a population are static. The dynamics of relationships is only taken indirectly into account by assuming that the relevant information to study epidemic spread is encoded in the network obtained, by considering numbers of partners accumulated over periods of time roughly proportional to the infectious period of the disease. On the other hand, models explicitly including social dynamics are often too schematic to provide a reasonable representation of a real population, or so detailed that no general conclusions can be drawn from them. Here, we present a model of social dynamics that is general enough so its parameters can be obtained by fitting data from surveys about sexual behaviour, but that can still be studied analytically, using mean-field techniques. This allows us to obtain some general results about epidemic spreading. We show that using accumulated network data to estimate the static epidemic threshold lead to a significant underestimation of that threshold. We also show that, for a dynamic network, the relative epidemic threshold is an increasing function of the infectious period of the disease, implying that the static value is a lower bound to the real threshold. A practical example is given of how to apply the model to the study of a real population. PMID:22112655

Performance breakdown in optimal stimulus decoding.

PubMed

Lubomir Kostal; Lansky, Petr; Pilarski, Stevan

2015-06-01

One of the primary goals of neuroscience is to understand how neurons encode and process information about their environment. The problem is often approached indirectly by examining the degree to which the neuronal response reflects the stimulus feature of interest. In this context, the methods of signal estimation and detection theory provide the theoretical limits on the decoding accuracy with which the stimulus can be identified. The Cramér-Rao lower bound on the decoding precision is widely used, since it can be evaluated easily once the mathematical model of the stimulus-response relationship is determined. However, little is known about the behavior of different decoding schemes with respect to the bound if the neuronal population size is limited. We show that under broad conditions the optimal decoding displays a threshold-like shift in performance in dependence on the population size. The onset of the threshold determines a critical range where a small increment in size, signal-to-noise ratio or observation time yields a dramatic gain in the decoding precision. We demonstrate the existence of such threshold regions in early auditory and olfactory information coding. We discuss the origin of the threshold effect and its impact on the design of effective coding approaches in terms of relevant population size.

Tax incentives and the demand for private health insurance.

PubMed

Stavrunova, Olena; Yerokhin, Oleg

2014-03-01

We analyze the effect of an individual insurance mandate (Medicare Levy Surcharge) on the demand for private health insurance (PHI) in Australia. With administrative income tax return data, we show that the mandate has several distinct effects on taxpayers' behavior. First, despite the large tax penalty for not having PHI coverage relative to the cost of the cheapest eligible insurance policy, compliance with mandate is relatively low: the proportion of the population with PHI coverage increases by 6.5 percentage points (15.6%) at the income threshold where the tax penalty starts to apply. This effect is most pronounced for young taxpayers, while the middle aged seem to be least responsive to this specific tax incentive. Second, the discontinuous increase in the average tax rate at the income threshold created by the policy generates a strong incentive for tax avoidance which manifests itself through bunching in the taxable income distribution below the threshold. Finally, after imposing some plausible assumptions, we extrapolate the effect of the policy to other income levels and show that this policy has not had a significant impact on the overall demand for private health insurance in Australia. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thatcher, Cindy A.; Brock, John C.; Pendleton, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

The northern Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States has been identified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, based on a combination of physical and societal factors. Vulnerability of human populations and infrastructure to projected increases in sea level is a critical area of uncertainty for communities in the extremely low-lying and flat northern gulf coastal zone. A rapidly growing population along some parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline is further increasing the potential societal and economic impacts of projected sea-level rise in the region, where observed relative rise rates range from 0.75 to 9.95 mm per year on the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. A 1-m elevation threshold was chosen as an inclusive designation of the coastal zone vulnerable to relative sea-level rise, because of uncertainty associated with sea-level rise projections. This study applies a Coastal Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) to the northern Gulf of Mexico region, which includes both physical and economic factors that contribute to societal risk of impacts from rising sea level. The economic variables incorporated in the CEVI include human population, urban land cover, economic value of key types of infrastructure, and residential and commercial building values. The variables are standardized and combined to produce a quantitative index value for each 1-km coastal segment, highlighting areas where human populations and the built environment are most at risk. This information can be used by coastal managers as they allocate limited resources for ecosystem restoration, beach nourishment, and coastal-protection infrastructure. The study indicates a large amount of variability in index values along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline, and highlights areas where long-term planning to enhance resiliency is particularly needed.

Simulation of MAD Cow Disease Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magdoń-Maksymowicz, M. S.; Maksymowicz, A. Z.; Gołdasz, J.

Computer simulation of dynamic of BSE disease is presented. Both vertical (to baby) and horizontal (to neighbor) mechanisms of the disease spread are considered. The game takes place on a two-dimensional square lattice Nx×Ny = 1000×1000 with initial population randomly distributed on the net. The disease may be introduced either with the initial population or by a spontaneous development of BSE in an item, at a small frequency. Main results show a critical probability of the BSE transmission above which the disease is present in the population. This value is vulnerable to possible spatial clustering of the population and it also depends on the mechanism responsible for the disease onset, evolution and propagation. A threshold birth rate below which the population is extinct is seen. Above this threshold the population is disease free at equilibrium until another birth rate value is reached when the disease is present in population. For typical model parameters used for the simulation, which may correspond to the mad cow disease, we are close to the BSE-free case.

Modeling the Unites States government's economic cost of noise-induced hearing loss for a military population.

PubMed

Tufts, Jennifer B; Weathersby, Paul K; Rodriguez, Francisco A

2010-05-01

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the feasibility and utility of developing economic cost models for noise-induced hearing loss (NIHL). First, we outline an economic model of NIHL for a population of US Navy sailors with an "industrial"-type noise exposure. Next, we describe the effect on NIHL-related cost of varying the two central model inputs--the noise-exposure level and the duration of exposure. Such an analysis can help prioritize promising areas, to which limited resources to reduce NIHL-related costs should be devoted. NIHL-related costs borne by the US government were computed on a yearly basis using a finite element approach that took into account varying levels of susceptibility to NIHL. Predicted hearing thresholds for the population were computed with ANSI S3.44-1996 and then used as the basis for the calculation of NIHL-related costs. Annual and cumulative costs were tracked. Noise-exposure level and duration were systematically varied to determine their effects on the expected lifetime NIHL-related cost of a specific US Navy sailor population. Our nominal noise-exposure case [93 dB(A) for six years] yielded a total expected lifetime cost of US $13,472 per sailor, with plausible lower and upper bounds of US $2,500 and US $26,000. Starting with the nominal case, a decrease of 50% in exposure level or duration would yield cost savings of approximately 23% and 19%, respectively. We concluded that a reduction in noise level would be more somewhat more cost-effective than the same percentage reduction in years of exposure. Our economic cost model can be used to estimate the changes in NIHL-related costs that would result from changes in noise-exposure level and/or duration for a single military population. Although the model is limited at present, suggestions are provided for adapting it to civilian populations.

Comparisons between detection threshold and loudness perception for individual cochlear implant channels

PubMed Central

Bierer, Julie Arenberg; Nye, Amberly D

2014-01-01

Objective The objective of the present study, performed in cochlear implant listeners, was to examine how the level of current required to detect single-channel electrical pulse trains relates to loudness perception on the same channel. The working hypothesis was that channels with relatively high thresholds, when measured with a focused current pattern, interface poorly to the auditory nerve. For such channels a smaller dynamic range between perceptual threshold and the most comfortable loudness would result, in part, from a greater sensitivity to changes in electrical field spread compared to low-threshold channels. The narrower range of comfortable listening levels may have important implications for speech perception. Design Data were collected from eight, adult cochlear implant listeners implanted with the HiRes90k cochlear implant (Advanced Bionics Corp.). The partial tripolar (pTP) electrode configuration, consisting of one intracochlear active electrode, two flanking electrodes carrying a fraction (σ) of the return current, and an extracochlear ground, was used for stimulation. Single-channel detection thresholds and most comfortable listening levels were acquired using the most focused pTP configuration possible (σ ≥ 0.8) to identify three channels for further testing – those with the highest, median, and lowest thresholds – for each subject. Threshold, equal-loudness contours (at 50% of the monopolar dynamic range), and loudness growth functions were measured for each of these three test channels using various partial tripolar fractions. Results For all test channels, thresholds increased as the electrode configuration became more focused. The rate of increase with the focusing parameter σ was greatest for the high-threshold channel compared to the median- and low-threshold channels. The 50% equal-loudness contours exhibited similar rates of increase in level across test channels and subjects. Additionally, test channels with the highest thresholds had the narrowest dynamic ranges (for σ ≥ 0.5) and steepest growth of loudness functions for all electrode configurations. Conclusions Together with previous studies using focused stimulation, the results suggest that auditory responses to electrical stimuli at both threshold and suprathreshold current levels are not uniform across the electrode array of individual cochlear implant listeners. Specifically, the steeper growth of loudness and thus smaller dynamic ranges observed for high-threshold channels are consistent with a degraded electrode-neuron interface, which could stem from lower numbers of functioning auditory neurons or a relatively large distance between the neurons and electrodes. These findings may have potential implications for how stimulation levels are set during the clinical mapping procedure, particularly for speech-processing strategies that use focused electrical fields. PMID:25036146

Age structure and mortality of walleyes in Kansas reservoirs: Use of mortality caps to establish realistic management objectives

USGS Publications Warehouse

Quist, M.C.; Stephen, J.L.; Guy, C.S.; Schultz, R.D.

2004-01-01

Age structure, total annual mortality, and mortality caps (maximum mortality thresholds established by managers) were investigated for walleye Sander vitreus (formerly Stizostedion vitreum) populations sampled from eight Kansas reservoirs during 1991-1999. We assessed age structure by examining the relative frequency of different ages in the population; total annual mortality of age-2 and older walleyes was estimated by use of a weighted catch curve. To evaluate the utility of mortality caps, we modeled threshold values of mortality by varying growth rates and management objectives. Estimated mortality thresholds were then compared with observed growth and mortality rates. The maximum age of walleyes varied from 5 to 11 years across reservoirs. Age structure was dominated (???72%) by walleyes age 3 and younger in all reservoirs, corresponding to ages that were not yet vulnerable to harvest. Total annual mortality rates varied from 40.7% to 59.5% across reservoirs and averaged 51.1% overall (SE = 2.3). Analysis of mortality caps indicated that a management objective of 500 mm for the mean length of walleyes harvested by anglers was realistic for all reservoirs with a 457-mm minimum length limit but not for those with a 381-mm minimum length limit. For a 500-mm mean length objective to be realized for reservoirs with a 381-mm length limit, managers must either reduce mortality rates (e.g., through restrictive harvest regulations) or increase growth of walleyes. When the assumed objective was to maintain the mean length of harvested walleyes at current levels, the observed annual mortality rates were below the mortality cap for all reservoirs except one. Mortality caps also provided insight on management objectives expressed in terms of proportional stock density (PSD). Results indicated that a PSD objective of 20-40 was realistic for most reservoirs. This study provides important walleye mortality information that can be used for monitoring or for inclusion into population models; these results can also be combined with those of other studies to investigate large-scale differences in walleye mortality. Our analysis illustrates the utility of mortality caps for monitoring walleye populations and for establishing realistic management goals.

Chromatic Perceptual Learning but No Category Effects without Linguistic Input

PubMed Central

Grandison, Alexandra; Sowden, Paul T.; Drivonikou, Vicky G.; Notman, Leslie A.; Alexander, Iona; Davies, Ian R. L.

2016-01-01

Perceptual learning involves an improvement in perceptual judgment with practice, which is often specific to stimulus or task factors. Perceptual learning has been shown on a range of visual tasks but very little research has explored chromatic perceptual learning. Here, we use two low level perceptual threshold tasks and a supra-threshold target detection task to assess chromatic perceptual learning and category effects. Experiment 1 investigates whether chromatic thresholds reduce as a result of training and at what level of analysis learning effects occur. Experiment 2 explores the effect of category training on chromatic thresholds, whether training of this nature is category specific and whether it can induce categorical responding. Experiment 3 investigates the effect of category training on a higher level, lateralized target detection task, previously found to be sensitive to category effects. The findings indicate that performance on a perceptual threshold task improves following training but improvements do not transfer across retinal location or hue. Therefore, chromatic perceptual learning is category specific and can occur at relatively early stages of visual analysis. Additionally, category training does not induce category effects on a low level perceptual threshold task, as indicated by comparable discrimination thresholds at the newly learned hue boundary and adjacent test points. However, category training does induce emerging category effects on a supra-threshold target detection task. Whilst chromatic perceptual learning is possible, learnt category effects appear to be a product of left hemisphere processing, and may require the input of higher level linguistic coding processes in order to manifest. PMID:27252669

Effects of urbanization on benthic macroinvertebrate communities in streams, Anchorage, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ourso, Robert T.

2001-01-01

The effect of urbanization on stream macroinvertebrate communities was examined by using data gathered during a 1999 reconnaissance of 14 sites in the Municipality of Anchorage, Alaska. Data collected included macroinvertebrate abundance, water chemistry, and trace elements in bed sediments. Macroinvertebrate relative-abundance data were edited and used in metric and index calculations. Population density was used as a surrogate for urbanization. Cluster analysis (unweighted-paired-grouping method) using arithmetic means of macroinvertebrate presence-absence data showed a well-defined separation between urbanized and nonurbanized sites as well as extracted sites that did not cleanly fall into either category. Water quality in Anchorage generally declined with increasing urbanization (population density). Of 59 variables examined, 31 correlated with urbanization. Local regression analysis extracted 11 variables that showed a significant impairment threshold response and 6 that showed a significant linear response. Significant biological variables for determining the impairment threshold in this study were the Margalef diversity index, Ephemeroptera-Plecoptera-Trichoptera taxa richness, and total taxa richness. Significant thresholds were observed in the water-chemistry variables conductivity, dissolved organic carbon, potassium, and total dissolved solids. Significant thresholds in trace elements in bed sediments included arsenic, iron, manganese, and lead. Results suggest that sites in Anchorage that have ratios of population density to road density greater than 70, storm-drain densities greater than 0.45 miles per square mile, road densities greater than 4 miles per square mile, or population densities greater than 125-150 persons per square mile may require further monitoring to determine if the stream has become impaired. This population density is far less than the 1,000 persons per square mile used by the U.S. Census Bureau to define an urban area.

Effects of ageing on orofacial fine force control and its relationship with parallel change in sensory perception.

PubMed

Etter, Nicole M; Mckeon, Patrick O; Dressler, Emily V; Andreatta, Richard D

2017-05-03

Current theoretical models suggest the importance of a bidirectional relationship between sensation and production in the vocal tract to maintain lifelong speech skills. The purpose of this study was to assess age-related changes in orofacial skilled force production and to begin defining the orofacial perception-action relationship in healthy adults. Low-level orofacial force control measures (reaction time, rise time, peak force, mean hold force (N) and force hold SD) were collected from 60 adults (19-84 years). Non-parametric Kruskal Wallis tests were performed to identify statistical differences between force and group demographics. Non-parametric Spearman's rank correlations were completed to compare force measures against previously published sensory data from the same cohort of participants. Significant group differences in force control were found for age, sex, speech usage and smoking status. Significant correlational relationships were identified between labial vibrotactile thresholds and several low-level force control measures collected during step and ramp-and-hold conditions. These findings demonstrate age-related alterations in orofacial force production. Furthermore, correlational analysis suggests as vibrotactile detection thresholds increase, the ability to maintain low-level force control accuracy decreases. Possible clinical applications and treatment consequences of these findings for speech disorders in the ageing population are provided.

Staff-related access deficit and antenatal care coverage across the NUTS level 1 regions of Turkey.

PubMed

Yardim, Mahmut S

2010-01-01

At the heart of each health system, the workforce is central to advancing health. The World Health Organization has identified a threshold in workforce density below which high coverage of essential interventions, including those necessary to meet the health-related Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), is very unlikely. The International Labor Organization (ILO) has launched a similar indicator -staff related access deficit- using Thailand's health care professional density as a benchmark. The aim of this study is to assess the staff-related access deficit of the population across the 12 NUTS 1 level regions of Turkey. The main hypothesis is that staff-related access deficit has a correlation with and predicts the gap in antenatal care coverage (percentage of women unable to access to antenatal care) across different regions. Staff-related access deficit, as a threshold indicator, seems to have a linear relationship with the antenatal care coverage gap. The known inequalities in the distribution of the health care workforce among different regions of Turkey were put forward once more in this study using the SRA indicator. The staff-related access deficit indicator can be easily used to monitor the status of distributional inequalities of the health care workforce at different sub-national levels in the future.

Thermal detection thresholds in 5-year-old preterm born children; IQ does matter.

PubMed

de Graaf, Joke; Valkenburg, Abraham J; Tibboel, Dick; van Dijk, Monique

2012-07-01

Experiencing pain at newborn age may have consequences on one's somatosensory perception later in life. Children's perception for cold and warm stimuli may be determined with the Thermal Sensory Analyzer (TSA) device by two different methods. This pilot study in 5-year-old children born preterm aimed at establishing whether the TSA method of limits, which is dependent of reaction time, and the method of levels, which is independent of reaction time, would yield different cold and warm detection thresholds. The second aim was to establish possible associations between intellectual ability and the detection thresholds obtained with either method. A convenience sample was drawn from the participants in an ongoing 5-year follow-up study of a randomized controlled trial on effects of morphine during mechanical ventilation. Thresholds were assessed using both methods and statistically compared. Possible associations between the child's intelligence quotient (IQ) and threshold levels were analyzed. The method of levels yielded more sensitive thresholds than did the method of limits, i.e. mean (SD) cold detection thresholds: 30.3 (1.4) versus 28.4 (1.7) (Cohen'sd=1.2, P=0.001) and warm detection thresholds; 33.9 (1.9) versus 35.6 (2.1) (Cohen's d=0.8, P=0.04). IQ was statistically significantly associated only with the detection thresholds obtained with the method of limits (cold: r=0.64, warm: r=-0.52). The TSA method of levels, is to be preferred over the method of limits in 5-year-old preterm born children, as it establishes more sensitive detection thresholds and is independent of IQ. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Oxidation of RyR2 Has a Biphasic Effect on the Threshold for Store Overload-Induced Calcium Release.

PubMed

Waddell, Helen M M; Zhang, Joe Z; Hoeksema, Katie J; McLachlan, Julia J; McLay, Janet C; Jones, Peter P

2016-06-07

At the single-channel level, oxidation of the cardiac ryanodine receptor (RyR2) is known to activate and inhibit the channel depending on the level of oxidation. However, the mechanisms through which these changes alter the activity of RyR2 in a cellular setting are poorly understood. In this study, we determined the effect of oxidation on a common form of RyR2 regulation; store overload-induced Ca(2+) release (SOICR). We found that oxidation resulted in concentration and time-dependent changes in the activation threshold for SOICR. Low concentrations of the oxidant H2O2 resulted in a decrease in the threshold for SOICR, which led to an increase in SOICR events. However, higher concentrations of H2O2, or prolonged exposure, reversed these changes and led to an increase in the threshold for SOICR. This increase in the threshold for SOICR in most cells was to such an extent that it led to the complete inhibition of SOICR. Acute exposure to high concentrations of H2O2 led to an initial decrease and then increase in the threshold for SOICR. In the majority of cells the increased threshold could not be reversed by the application of the reducing agent dithiothreitol. Therefore, our data suggest that low levels of RyR2 oxidation increase the channel activity by decreasing the threshold for SOICR, whereas high levels of RyR2 oxidation irreversibly increase the threshold for SOICR leading to an inhibition of RyR2. Combined, this indicates that oxidation regulates RyR2 by the same mechanism as phosphorylation, methylxanthines, and mutations, via changes in the threshold for SOICR. Copyright © 2016 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climatic Factors Driving Invasion of the Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into New Areas of Trentino, Northern Italy

PubMed Central

Castellani, Cristina; Arnoldi, Daniele; Rizzoli, Annapaola

2011-01-01

Background The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies. Methodology/Principal Findings To identify the areas currently most suitable for the occurrence of the tiger mosquito in the Province of Trento, we combined field entomological observations with analyses of satellite temperature data (MODIS Land Surface Temperature: LST) and human population data. We determine threshold conditions for the survival of overwintering eggs and for adult survival using both January mean temperatures and annual mean temperatures. We show that the 0°C LST threshold for January mean temperatures and the 11°C threshold for annual mean temperatures provide the best predictors for identifying the areas that could potentially support populations of this mosquito. In fact, human population density and distance to human settlements appear to be less important variables affecting mosquito distribution in this area. Finally, we evaluated the future establishment and spread of this species in relation to predicted climate warming by considering the A2 scenario for 2050 statistically downscaled at regional level in which winter and annual temperatures increase by 1.5 and 1°C, respectively. Conclusions/Significance MODIS satellite LST data are useful for accurately predicting potential areas of tiger mosquito distribution and for revealing the range limits of this species in mountainous areas, predictions which could be extended to an European scale. We show that the observed trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change could facilitate further invasion of Ae. albopictus into new areas. PMID:21525991

20 CFR 418.2105 - What is the threshold?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false What is the threshold? 418.2105 Section 418... Adjustment Amount § 418.2105 What is the threshold? (a) The threshold is a level of modified adjusted gross... years 2011 through and including 2019, the modified adjusted gross income threshold is $85,000 for...

20 CFR 418.1105 - What is the threshold?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 2 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false What is the threshold? 418.1105 Section 418... What is the threshold? (a) The threshold is a level of modified adjusted gross income above which the... gross income threshold is $80,000 for individuals with a Federal income tax filing status of single...

Health risk assessment of hazardous metals for population via consumption of seafood from Ogoniland, Rivers State, Nigeria; a case study of Kaa, B-Dere, and Bodo City.

PubMed

Nkpaa, K W; Patrick-Iwuanyanwu, K C; Wegwu, M O; Essien, E B

2016-01-01

This study was designed to investigate the human health risk through consumption of seafood from contaminated sites in Kaa, B-Dere, and Bodo City all in Ogoniland. The potential non-carcinogenic health risk for consumers were investigated by assessing the estimated daily intake and target hazard quotients for Cr, Cd, Zn, Pb, Mn, and Fe while carcinogenic health effect from Cr, Cd, and Pb was also estimated. The estimated daily intake from seafood consumption was below the threshold values for Cr, Mn, and Zn while they exceeded the threshold for Cd, Pb, and Fe. The target hazard quotients for Zn and Cr were below 1. Target hazard quotients values for Cd, Pb, Mn, and Fe were greater than 1 except for Fe level in Liza falcipinis from Kaa. Furthermore, estimation of carcinogenic risk for Cr in all samples under study exceeded the accepted risk level of 10E-4. Also, Cd carcinogenic risk level for L. falcipinis and Callinectes pallidus collected from B-Dere and C. pallidus collected from Bodo City was 1.1E-3 which also exceeded the accepted risk level of 10E-4 for Cd. Estimation of carcinogenic risk for Pb was within the acceptable range of 10E-4. Consumers of seafood from these sites in Ogoniland may be exposed to metal pollution.

Atomic Data and Spectral Line Intensities for Ca IX

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landi, E.; Bhatia, A. K.

2012-01-01

Electron impact collision strengths, energy levels, oscillator strengths and spontaneous radiative decay rates are calculated for Ca IX. We include in the calculations the 33 lowest configurations in the n = 3, 4, 5 complexes, corresponding to 283 fine structure levels in the 3l3l ', 3l4l'' and 3l4l''' configurations, where l,l' = s, p, d, l '' = s, p, d, f and l''' = s, p, d, f, g. Collision strengths are calculated at five incident energies for all transitions: 5.8, 13.6, 24.2, 38.6 and 57.9 Ry above the threshold of each transition. An additional energy, very close to the transition threshold, has been added, whose value is between 0.0055 Ry and 0.23 Ry depending on the levels involved. Calculations have been carried out using the Flexible Atomic Code and the distorted wave approximation. Excitation rate coefficients are calculated as a function of electron temperature by assuming a Maxwellian electron velocity distribution. Using the excitation rate coefficients and the radiative transition rates calculated in the present work, statistical equilibrium equations for level populations are solved at electron densities covering the 10(exp 8)-10(exp 14)/cubic cm range and at an electron temperature of log T(sub e)(K)=5.8, corresponding to the maximum abundance of Ca IX. Spectral line intensities are calculated, and their diagnostic relevance is discussed.

Synthesizing epidemiological and economic optima for control of immunizing infections.

PubMed

Klepac, Petra; Laxminarayan, Ramanan; Grenfell, Bryan T

2011-08-23

Epidemic theory predicts that the vaccination threshold required to interrupt local transmission of an immunizing infection like measles depends only on the basic reproductive number and hence transmission rates. When the search for optimal strategies is expanded to incorporate economic constraints, the optimum for disease control in a single population is determined by relative costs of infection and control, rather than transmission rates. Adding a spatial dimension, which precludes local elimination unless it can be achieved globally, can reduce or increase optimal vaccination levels depending on the balance of costs and benefits. For weakly coupled populations, local optimal strategies agree with the global cost-effective strategy; however, asymmetries in costs can lead to divergent control optima in more strongly coupled systems--in particular, strong regional differences in costs of vaccination can preclude local elimination even when elimination is locally optimal. Under certain conditions, it is locally optimal to share vaccination resources with other populations.

Deadly heat waves projected in the densely populated agricultural regions of South Asia.

PubMed

Im, Eun-Soon; Pal, Jeremy S; Eltahir, Elfatih A B

2017-08-01

The risk associated with any climate change impact reflects intensity of natural hazard and level of human vulnerability. Previous work has shown that a wet-bulb temperature of 35°C can be considered an upper limit on human survivability. On the basis of an ensemble of high-resolution climate change simulations, we project that extremes of wet-bulb temperature in South Asia are likely to approach and, in a few locations, exceed this critical threshold by the late 21st century under the business-as-usual scenario of future greenhouse gas emissions. The most intense hazard from extreme future heat waves is concentrated around densely populated agricultural regions of the Ganges and Indus river basins. Climate change, without mitigation, presents a serious and unique risk in South Asia, a region inhabited by about one-fifth of the global human population, due to an unprecedented combination of severe natural hazard and acute vulnerability.

Large-eddy simulation of plume dispersion within regular arrays of cubic buildings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakayama, H.; Jurcakova, K.; Nagai, H.

2011-04-01

There is a potential problem that hazardous and flammable materials are accidentally or intentionally released within populated urban areas. For the assessment of human health hazard from toxic substances, the existence of high concentration peaks in a plume should be considered. For the safety analysis of flammable gas, certain critical threshold levels should be evaluated. Therefore, in such a situation, not only average levels but also instantaneous magnitudes of concentration should be accurately predicted. In this study, we perform Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) of plume dispersion within regular arrays of cubic buildings with large obstacle densities and investigate the influence of the building arrangement on the characteristics of mean and fluctuating concentrations.

Excimer lasers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmer, A. J.; Hess, L. D.; Stephens, R. R.

1976-01-01

A theoretical and experimental investigation into the possibility of achieving CW discharge pumped excimer laser oscillation is reported. Detailed theoretical modeling of capillary discharge pumping of the XeF and KXe and K2 excimer systems was carried out which predicted the required discharge parameters for reaching laser threshold on these systems. Capillary discharge pumping of the XeF excimer system was investigated experimentally. The experiments revealed a lower excimer level population density than predicted theoretically by about an order of magnitude. The experiments also revealed a fluorine consumption problem in the discharge in agreement with theory.

Critical thresholds in species` responses to landscape structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

With, K.A.; Crist, T.O.

1995-12-01

Critical thresholds are transition ranges across which small changes in spatial pattern produce abrupt shifts in ecological responses. Habitat fragmentation provides a familiar example of a critical threshold. As the landscape becomes dissected into smaller parcels of habitat. landscape connectivity-the functional linkage among habitat patches - may suddenly become disrupted, which may have important consequences for the distribution and persistence of populations. Landscape connectivity depends not only on the abundance and spatial patterning of habitat. but also on the habitat specificity and dispersal abilities of species. Habitat specialists with limited dispersal capabilities presumably have a much lower threshold to habitatmore » fragmentation than highly vagile species, which may perceive the landscape as functionally connected across a greater range of fragmentation severity. To determine where threshold effects in species, responses to landscape structure are likely to occur, a simulation model modified from percolation theory was developed. Our simulations predicted the distributional patterns of populations in different landscape mosaics, which we tested empirically using two grasshopper species (Orthoptera: Acrididae) that occur in the shortgrass prairie of north-central Colorado. The distribution of these two species in this grassland mosaic matched the predictions from our simulations. By providing quantitative predictions of threshold effects, this modelling approach may prove useful in the formulation of conservation strategies and assessment of land-use changes on species` distributional patterns and persistence.« less

Critical thresholds in sea lice epidemics: evidence, sensitivity and subcritical estimation

PubMed Central

Frazer, L. Neil; Morton, Alexandra; Krkošek, Martin

2012-01-01

Host density thresholds are a fundamental component of the population dynamics of pathogens, but empirical evidence and estimates are lacking. We studied host density thresholds in the dynamics of ectoparasitic sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) on salmon farms. Empirical examples include a 1994 epidemic in Atlantic Canada and a 2001 epidemic in Pacific Canada. A mathematical model suggests dynamics of lice are governed by a stable endemic equilibrium until the critical host density threshold drops owing to environmental change, or is exceeded by stocking, causing epidemics that require rapid harvest or treatment. Sensitivity analysis of the critical threshold suggests variation in dependence on biotic parameters and high sensitivity to temperature and salinity. We provide a method for estimating the critical threshold from parasite abundances at subcritical host densities and estimate the critical threshold and transmission coefficient for the two epidemics. Host density thresholds may be a fundamental component of disease dynamics in coastal seas where salmon farming occurs. PMID:22217721

Central and rear-edge populations can be equally vulnerable to warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Scott; Wernberg, Thomas; Arackal Joy, Bijo; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Campbell, Alexandra H.

2015-12-01

Rear (warm) edge populations are often considered more susceptible to warming than central (cool) populations because of the warmer ambient temperatures they experience, but this overlooks the potential for local variation in thermal tolerances. Here we provide conceptual models illustrating how sensitivity to warming is affected throughout a species' geographical range for locally adapted and non-adapted populations. We test these models for a range-contracting seaweed using observations from a marine heatwave and a 12-month experiment, translocating seaweeds among central, present and historic range edge locations. Growth, reproductive development and survivorship display different temperature thresholds among central and rear-edge populations, but share a 2.5 °C anomaly threshold. Range contraction, therefore, reflects variation in local anomalies rather than differences in absolute temperatures. This demonstrates that warming sensitivity can be similar throughout a species geographical range and highlights the importance of incorporating local adaptation and acclimatization into climate change vulnerability assessments.

Evaluation on the cost-effective threshold of osteoporosis treatment on elderly women in China using discrete event simulation model.

PubMed

Ni, W; Jiang, Y

2017-02-01

This study used a simulation model to determine the cost-effective threshold of fracture risk to treat osteoporosis among elderly Chinese women. Osteoporosis treatment is cost-effective among average-risk women who are at least 75 years old and above-average-risk women who are younger than 75 years old. Aging of the Chinese population is imposing increasing economic burden of osteoporosis. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatment among the senior Chinese women population. A discrete event simulation model using age-specific probabilities of hip fracture, clinical vertebral fracture, wrist fracture, humerus fracture, and other fracture; costs (2015 US dollars); and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatment. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated. The willingness to pay (WTP) for a QALY in China was compared with the calculated ICER to decide the cost-effectiveness. To determine the absolute 10-year hip fracture probability at which the osteoporosis treatment became cost-effective, average age-specific probabilities for all fractures were multiplied by a relative risk (RR) that was systematically varied from 0 to 10 until the WTP threshold was observed for treatment relative to no intervention. Sensitivity analyses were also performed to evaluate the impacts from WTP and annual treatment costs. In baseline analysis, simulated ICERs were higher than the WTP threshold among Chinese women younger than 75, but much lower than the WTP among the older population. Sensitivity analyses indicated that cost-effectiveness could vary due to a higher WTP threshold or a lower annual treatment cost. A 30 % increase in WTP or a 30 % reduction in annual treatment costs will make osteoporosis treatment cost-effective for Chinese women population from 55 to 85. The current study provides evidence that osteoporosis treatment is cost-effective among a subpopulation of Chinese senior women. The results also indicate that the cost-effectiveness of using osteoporosis treatment is sensitive to the WTP threshold and annual treatment costs.

The emergence of cooperation from a single mutant during microbial life cycles.

PubMed

Melbinger, Anna; Cremer, Jonas; Frey, Erwin

2015-07-06

Cooperative behaviour is widespread in nature, even though cooperating individuals always run the risk of being exploited by free-riders. Population structure effectively promotes cooperation given that a threshold in the level of cooperation was already reached. However, the question how cooperation can emerge from a single mutant, which cannot rely on a benefit provided by other cooperators, is still puzzling. Here, we investigate this question for a well-defined but generic situation based on typical life cycles of microbial populations where individuals regularly form new colonies followed by growth phases. We analyse two evolutionary mechanisms favouring cooperative behaviour and study their strength depending on the inoculation size and the length of a life cycle. In particular, we find that population bottlenecks followed by exponential growth phases strongly increase the survival and fixation probabilities of a single cooperator in a free-riding population. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Biodiversity losses: The downward spiral

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tomback, Diana F.; Kendall, Katherine C.; Tomback, Diana F.; Arno, Stephen F.; Keane, Robert E.

2001-01-01

The dramatic decline of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) populations in the northwestern United States and southwestern Canada from the combined effects of fire exclusion, mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), and the projected decline of whitebark pine populations rangewide (Chapters 10 and 11) do not simply add up to local extirpations of a single tree species. Instead, the loss of whitebark pine has broad ecosystem-level consequences, eroding local plant and animal biodiversity, changing the time frame of succession, and altering the distribution of subalpine vegetation (Chapter 1). One potential casualty of this decline may be the midcontinental populations of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis), which use whitebark pine seeds as a major food source (Chapter 7). Furthermore, whitebark pine is linked to other white pine ecosystems in the West through its seed-disperser, Clark's nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) (Chapter 5). Major declines in nutcracker populations ultimately seal the fate of several white pine ecosystems, and raise the question of whether restoration is possible once a certain threshold of decline is reached.

Electrophysiological channel interactions using focused multipolar stimulation for cochlear implants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, Shefin S.; Shivdasani, Mohit N.; Wise, Andrew K.; Shepherd, Robert K.; Fallon, James B.

2015-12-01

Objective. Speech intelligibility with existing multichannel cochlear implants (CIs) is thought to be limited by poor spatial selectivity and interactions between CI channels caused by overlapping activation with monopolar (MP) stimulation. Our previous studies have shown that focused multipolar (FMP) and tripolar (TP) stimulation produce more restricted neural activation in the inferior colliculus (IC), compared to MP stimulation. Approach. This study explored interactions in the IC produced by simultaneous stimulation of two CI channels. We recorded multi-unit neural activity in the IC of anaesthetized cats with normal and severely degenerated spiral ganglion neuron populations in response to FMP, TP and MP stimulation from a 14 channel CI. Stimuli were applied to a ‘fixed’ CI channel, chosen toward the middle of the cochlear electrode array, and the effects of simultaneously stimulating a more apical ‘test’ CI channel were measured as a function of spatial separation between the two stimulation channels and stimulus level of the fixed channel. Channel interactions were quantified by changes in neural responses and IC threshold (i.e., threshold shift) elicited by simultaneous stimulation of two CI channels, compared to stimulation of the test channel alone. Main results. Channel interactions were significantly lower for FMP and TP than for MP stimulation (p < 0.001), whereas no significant difference was observed between FMP and TP stimulation. With MP stimulation, threshold shifts increased with decreased inter-electrode spacing and increased stimulus levels of the fixed channel. For FMP and TP stimulation, channel interactions were found to be similar for different inter-electrode spacing and stimulus levels of the fixed channel. Significance. The present study demonstrates how the degree of channel interactions in a CI can be controlled using stimulation configurations such as FMP and TP; such knowledge is essential in enhancing CI function in complex acoustic environments.

Dynamic-thresholding level set: a novel computer-aided volumetry method for liver tumors in hepatic CT images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cai, Wenli; Yoshida, Hiroyuki; Harris, Gordon J.

2007-03-01

Measurement of the volume of focal liver tumors, called liver tumor volumetry, is indispensable for assessing the growth of tumors and for monitoring the response of tumors to oncology treatments. Traditional edge models, such as the maximum gradient and zero-crossing methods, often fail to detect the accurate boundary of a fuzzy object such as a liver tumor. As a result, the computerized volumetry based on these edge models tends to differ from manual segmentation results performed by physicians. In this study, we developed a novel computerized volumetry method for fuzzy objects, called dynamic-thresholding level set (DT level set). An optimal threshold value computed from a histogram tends to shift, relative to the theoretical threshold value obtained from a normal distribution model, toward a smaller region in the histogram. We thus designed a mobile shell structure, called a propagating shell, which is a thick region encompassing the level set front. The optimal threshold calculated from the histogram of the shell drives the level set front toward the boundary of a liver tumor. When the volume ratio between the object and the background in the shell approaches one, the optimal threshold value best fits the theoretical threshold value and the shell stops propagating. Application of the DT level set to 26 hepatic CT cases with 63 biopsy-confirmed hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs) and metastases showed that the computer measured volumes were highly correlated with those of tumors measured manually by physicians. Our preliminary results showed that DT level set was effective and accurate in estimating the volumes of liver tumors detected in hepatic CT images.

L-type calcium channels refine the neural population code of sound level.

PubMed

Grimsley, Calum Alex; Green, David Brian; Sivaramakrishnan, Shobhana

2016-12-01

The coding of sound level by ensembles of neurons improves the accuracy with which listeners identify how loud a sound is. In the auditory system, the rate at which neurons fire in response to changes in sound level is shaped by local networks. Voltage-gated conductances alter local output by regulating neuronal firing, but their role in modulating responses to sound level is unclear. We tested the effects of L-type calcium channels (Ca L : Ca V 1.1-1.4) on sound-level coding in the central nucleus of the inferior colliculus (ICC) in the auditory midbrain. We characterized the contribution of Ca L to the total calcium current in brain slices and then examined its effects on rate-level functions (RLFs) in vivo using single-unit recordings in awake mice. Ca L is a high-threshold current and comprises ∼50% of the total calcium current in ICC neurons. In vivo, Ca L activates at sound levels that evoke high firing rates. In RLFs that increase monotonically with sound level, Ca L boosts spike rates at high sound levels and increases the maximum firing rate achieved. In different populations of RLFs that change nonmonotonically with sound level, Ca L either suppresses or enhances firing at sound levels that evoke maximum firing. Ca L multiplies the gain of monotonic RLFs with dynamic range and divides the gain of nonmonotonic RLFs with the width of the RLF. These results suggest that a single broad class of calcium channels activates enhancing and suppressing local circuits to regulate the sensitivity of neuronal populations to sound level. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Viability of the Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-10-11

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is tasked with setting objective and measurable criteria for delisting species or populations listed under the Endangered Species Act. Determining the acceptable threshold for extinction risk for any species or population is a challenging task, particularly when facing marked uncertainty. The Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders (Polysticta stelleri) was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1997 because of a perceived decline in abundance throughout their nesting range and geographic isolation from the Russian breeding population. Previous genetic studies and modeling efforts, however, suggest that there may be dispersal from the Russian breeding population. Additionally, evidence exists of population level nonbreeding events. Research was conducted to estimate population viability of the Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders, using both an open and closed model of population process for this threatened population. Projections under a closed population model suggest this population has a 100 percent probability of extinction within 42 years. Projections under an open population model suggest that with immigration there is no probability of permanent extinction. Because of random immigration process and nonbreeding behavior, however, it is likely that this population will continue to be present in low and highly variable numbers on the breeding grounds in Alaska. Monitoring the winter population, which includes both Russian and Alaskan breeding birds, may offer a more comprehensive indication of population viability.

Hearing Threshold, Loss, Noise Levels and Worker’s Profiles of an Open Cast Chromite Mines in Odisha, India

PubMed Central

Kerketta, Sunamani; Gartia, Rajendra; Bagh, Somanath

2012-01-01

Objectives: The aims of the study were to describe the noise levels at an open cast chromite mine in Odisha, India, and the hearing threshold of its workers and to associate their hearing loss with their age, work station and length of employment at the mine. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional study of the hearing threshold of chromite mine workers. Audiometric data from 500 subjects was collected at the mines’ hospital in the Sukinda Valley of Jajpur, Odisha, India. The latest audiometry data available for the period 2002 to 2008 was used in the analysis. Audiometric screening was performed using an audiometer (TRIVENI TAM-25 6025A) in a quiet environment by qualified technicians, audiologists or physicians. Tests were conducted on the subjects after they had completely rested for 16 hours or more after their day shift. Results: A maximum of 262 subjects (52.4%) were employed in the work zone area and a minimum of 2 subjects (0.4%) had less than 5 years working experience. The age of the subjects ranged from 29 to 59 years and their working experience ranged from 4 to 37 years. The subjects’ average mean hearing thresholds at 4, 6 and 8 kHz were 21.53 dBA, 23.40 dBA and 21.90 dBA, respectively. The maximum Leq and L90 levels exceeded the prescribed limits for commercial, residential and silence zones. The maximum Leq levels exceeded 95 dBA for large and medium heavy earth moving machineries (HEMMs), both outside and at the operator’s position. Hearing loss due to the subjects’ work experience was found to be greater than that attributable to age and workstation. Conclusion: In our study population, the maximum noise levels for large and medium HEMMs and inside the cabins of HEMMs were found to be more than 95 dBA. This indicates that operators in this particular chromite mine at Odisha, India were exposed to noise levels exceeding 95 dBA for more than 10% of the monitoring time. The subjects’ hearing loss was also found to increase for every 10-year age interval and that for every 5 years of work experience at high fence. The subjects’ age and experience are significantly associated with hearing loss at all levels for frequencies of 4.0, 6.0, and 8.0 kHz, with older and more experienced workers having a higher incidence of hearing loss. PMID:23613650

Hearing Threshold, Loss, Noise Levels and Worker's Profiles of an Open Cast Chromite Mines in Odisha, India.

PubMed

Kerketta, Sunamani; Gartia, Rajendra; Bagh, Somanath

2012-10-01

The aims of the study were to describe the noise levels at an open cast chromite mine in Odisha, India, and the hearing threshold of its workers and to associate their hearing loss with their age, work station and length of employment at the mine. We performed a cross-sectional study of the hearing threshold of chromite mine workers. Audiometric data from 500 subjects was collected at the mines' hospital in the Sukinda Valley of Jajpur, Odisha, India. The latest audiometry data available for the period 2002 to 2008 was used in the analysis. Audiometric screening was performed using an audiometer (TRIVENI TAM-25 6025A) in a quiet environment by qualified technicians, audiologists or physicians. Tests were conducted on the subjects after they had completely rested for 16 hours or more after their day shift. A maximum of 262 subjects (52.4%) were employed in the work zone area and a minimum of 2 subjects (0.4%) had less than 5 years working experience. The age of the subjects ranged from 29 to 59 years and their working experience ranged from 4 to 37 years. The subjects' average mean hearing thresholds at 4, 6 and 8 kHz were 21.53 dBA, 23.40 dBA and 21.90 dBA, respectively. The maximum Leq and L90 levels exceeded the prescribed limits for commercial, residential and silence zones. The maximum Leq levels exceeded 95 dBA for large and medium heavy earth moving machineries (HEMMs), both outside and at the operator's position. Hearing loss due to the subjects' work experience was found to be greater than that attributable to age and workstation. In our study population, the maximum noise levels for large and medium HEMMs and inside the cabins of HEMMs were found to be more than 95 dBA. This indicates that operators in this particular chromite mine at Odisha, India were exposed to noise levels exceeding 95 dBA for more than 10% of the monitoring time. The subjects' hearing loss was also found to increase for every 10-year age interval and that for every 5 years of work experience at high fence. The subjects' age and experience are significantly associated with hearing loss at all levels for frequencies of 4.0, 6.0, and 8.0 kHz, with older and more experienced workers having a higher incidence of hearing loss.

Critical thresholds for eventual extinction in randomly disturbed population growth models.

PubMed

Peckham, Scott D; Waymire, Edward C; De Leenheer, Patrick

2018-02-16

This paper considers several single species growth models featuring a carrying capacity, which are subject to random disturbances that lead to instantaneous population reduction at the disturbance times. This is motivated in part by growing concerns about the impacts of climate change. Our main goal is to understand whether or not the species can persist in the long run. We consider the discrete-time stochastic process obtained by sampling the system immediately after the disturbances, and find various thresholds for several modes of convergence of this discrete process, including thresholds for the absence or existence of a positively supported invariant distribution. These thresholds are given explicitly in terms of the intensity and frequency of the disturbances on the one hand, and the population's growth characteristics on the other. We also perform a similar threshold analysis for the original continuous-time stochastic process, and obtain a formula that allows us to express the invariant distribution for this continuous-time process in terms of the invariant distribution of the discrete-time process, and vice versa. Examples illustrate that these distributions can differ, and this sends a cautionary message to practitioners who wish to parameterize these and related models using field data. Our analysis relies heavily on a particular feature shared by all the deterministic growth models considered here, namely that their solutions exhibit an exponentially weighted averaging property between a function of the initial condition, and the same function applied to the carrying capacity. This property is due to the fact that these systems can be transformed into affine systems.

Bayesian inference and assessment for rare-event bycatch in marine fisheries: a drift gillnet fishery case study.

PubMed

Martin, Summer L; Stohs, Stephen M; Moore, Jeffrey E

2015-03-01

Fisheries bycatch is a global threat to marine megafauna. Environmental laws require bycatch assessment for protected species, but this is difficult when bycatch is rare. Low bycatch rates, combined with low observer coverage, may lead to biased, imprecise estimates when using standard ratio estimators. Bayesian model-based approaches incorporate uncertainty, produce less volatile estimates, and enable probabilistic evaluation of estimates relative to management thresholds. Here, we demonstrate a pragmatic decision-making process that uses Bayesian model-based inferences to estimate the probability of exceeding management thresholds for bycatch in fisheries with < 100% observer coverage. Using the California drift gillnet fishery as a case study, we (1) model rates of rare-event bycatch and mortality using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods and 20 years of observer data; (2) predict unobserved counts of bycatch and mortality; (3) infer expected annual mortality; (4) determine probabilities of mortality exceeding regulatory thresholds; and (5) classify the fishery as having low, medium, or high bycatch impact using those probabilities. We focused on leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) and humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). Candidate models included Poisson or zero-inflated Poisson likelihood, fishing effort, and a bycatch rate that varied with area, time, or regulatory regime. Regulatory regime had the strongest effect on leatherback bycatch, with the highest levels occurring prior to a regulatory change. Area had the strongest effect on humpback bycatch. Cumulative bycatch estimates for the 20-year period were 104-242 leatherbacks (52-153 deaths) and 6-50 humpbacks (0-21 deaths). The probability of exceeding a regulatory threshold under the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (Potential Biological Removal, PBR) of 0.113 humpback deaths was 0.58, warranting a "medium bycatch impact" classification of the fishery. No PBR thresholds exist for leatherbacks, but the probability of exceeding an anticipated level of two deaths per year, stated as part of a U.S. Endangered Species Act assessment process, was 0.0007. The approach demonstrated here would allow managers to objectively and probabilistically classify fisheries with respect to bycatch impacts on species that have population-relevant mortality reference points, and declare with a stipulated level of certainty that bycatch did or did not exceed estimated upper bounds.

The relation between the effect of a subhypnotic dose of thiopental on claw pain threshold in rats and adrenalin, noradrenalin and dopamine levels.

PubMed

Aksoy, Mehmet; Ahiskalioglu, Ali; Ince, Ilker; Celik, Mine; Dostbil, Aysenur; Kuyrukluyildiz, Ufuk; Altuner, Durdu; Kurt, Nezahat; Suleyman, Halis

2015-01-01

Thiopental sodium (TPS) needs to be applied together with adrenalin in order to establish its analgesic effect in general anesthesia. We aimed to investigate the effect of TPS on the claw pain threshold in rats and evaluated its relationship with endogenous adrenalin (ADR), noradrenalin (NDR), and dopamine (DOP) levels. Intact and adrenalectomized rats were used in the experiment. Intact animals were divided into the following groups: 15 mg/kg TPS (TS), 0.3 mg/kg ADR+15 mg/kg TPS (ATS) and 0.3 mg/kg ADR alone (ADR). Adrenalectomized animals were divided into the following groups: 15 mg/kg TPS (A-TS), 0.3 mg/kg ADR+15 mg/kg TPS (A-ATS) and 0.3 mg/kg ADR alone (A-ADR). Claw pain threshold and blood ADR, NDR, and DOP levels were measured. The TS group's claw pain threshold was found low. However, the claw pain thresholds of the ATS and ADR groups increased significantly. In the A-TS group, the pain threshold decreased compared with normal, and in the A-ATS and A-ADR groups, the pain threshold increased. TPS reduced the blood ADR levels in intact rats; however, no significant changes were observed in the NDR and DOP levels. #TPS provides hyperalgesia by reducing the production of ADR in rats. The present study shows that to achieve analgesic activity, TPS needs to be applied together with ADR.

The relation between the effect of a subhypnotic dose of thiopental on claw pain threshold in rats and adrenalin, noradrenalin and dopamine levels

PubMed Central

Aksoy, Mehmet; Ahiskalioglu, Ali; Ince, Ilker; Celik, Mine; Dostbil, Aysenur; Kuyrukluyildiz, Ufuk; Altuner, Durdu; Kurt, Nezahat; Suleyman, Halis

2015-01-01

Thiopental sodium (TPS) needs to be applied together with adrenalin in order to establish its analgesic effect in general anesthesia. We aimed to investigate the effect of TPS on the claw pain threshold in rats and evaluated its relationship with endogenous adrenalin (ADR), noradrenalin (NDR), and dopamine (DOP) levels. Intact and adrenalectomized rats were used in the experiment. Intact animals were divided into the following groups: 15 mg/kg TPS (TS), 0.3 mg/kg ADR+15 mg/kg TPS (ATS) and 0.3 mg/kg ADR alone (ADR). Adrenalectomized animals were divided into the following groups: 15 mg/kg TPS (A-TS), 0.3 mg/kg ADR+15 mg/kg TPS (A-ATS) and 0.3 mg/kg ADR alone (A-ADR). Claw pain threshold and blood ADR, NDR, and DOP levels were measured. The TS group’s claw pain threshold was found low. However, the claw pain thresholds of the ATS and ADR groups increased significantly. In the A-TS group, the pain threshold decreased compared with normal, and in the A-ATS and A-ADR groups, the pain threshold increased. TPS reduced the blood ADR levels in intact rats; however, no significant changes were observed in the NDR and DOP levels. #TPS provides hyperalgesia by reducing the production of ADR in rats. The present study shows that to achieve analgesic activity, TPS needs to be applied together with ADR. PMID:26211784

Auditory-nerve single-neuron thresholds to electrical stimulation from scala tympani electrodes.

PubMed

Parkins, C W; Colombo, J

1987-12-31

Single auditory-nerve neuron thresholds were studied in sensory-deafened squirrel monkeys to determine the effects of electrical stimulus shape and frequency on single-neuron thresholds. Frequency was separated into its components, pulse width and pulse rate, which were analyzed separately. Square and sinusoidal pulse shapes were compared. There were no or questionably significant threshold differences in charge per phase between sinusoidal and square pulses of the same pulse width. There was a small (less than 0.5 dB) but significant threshold advantage for 200 microseconds/phase pulses delivered at low pulse rates (156 pps) compared to higher pulse rates (625 pps and 2500 pps). Pulse width was demonstrated to be the prime determinant of single-neuron threshold, resulting in strength-duration curves similar to other mammalian myelinated neurons, but with longer chronaxies. The most efficient electrical stimulus pulse width to use for cochlear implant stimulation was determined to be 100 microseconds/phase. This pulse width delivers the lowest charge/phase at threshold. The single-neuron strength-duration curves were compared to strength-duration curves of a computer model based on the specific anatomy of auditory-nerve neurons. The membrane capacitance and resulting chronaxie of the model can be varied by altering the length of the unmyelinated termination of the neuron, representing the unmyelinated portion of the neuron between the habenula perforata and the hair cell. This unmyelinated segment of the auditory-nerve neuron may be subject to aminoglycoside damage. Simulating a 10 micron unmyelinated termination for this model neuron produces a strength-duration curve that closely fits the single-neuron data obtained from aminoglycoside deafened animals. Both the model and the single-neuron strength-duration curves differ significantly from behavioral threshold data obtained from monkeys and humans with cochlear implants. This discrepancy can best be explained by the involvement of higher level neurologic processes in the behavioral responses. These findings suggest that the basic principles of neural membrane function must be considered in developing or analyzing electrical stimulation strategies for cochlear prostheses if the appropriate stimulation of frequency specific populations of auditory-nerve neurons is the objective.

Long-term outcomes in patients with septic shock transfused at a lower versus a higher haemoglobin threshold: the TRISS randomised, multicentre clinical trial.

PubMed

Rygård, Sofie L; Holst, Lars B; Wetterslev, Jørn; Winkel, Per; Johansson, Pär I; Wernerman, Jan; Guttormsen, Anne B; Karlsson, Sari; Perner, Anders

2016-11-01

We assessed the predefined long-term outcomes in patients randomised in the Transfusion Requirements in Septic Shock (TRISS) trial. In 32 Scandinavian ICUs, we randomised 1005 patients with septic shock and haemoglobin of 9 g/dl or less to receive single units of leuko-reduced red cells when haemoglobin level was 7 g/dl or less (lower threshold) or 9 g/dl or less (higher threshold) during ICU stay. We assessed mortality rates 1 year after randomisation and again in all patients at time of longest follow-up in the intention-to-treat population (n = 998) and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) 1 year after randomisation in the Danish patients only (n = 777). Mortality rates in the lower- versus higher-threshold group at 1 year were 53.5 % (268/501 patients) versus 54.6 % (271/496) [relative risk 0.97; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.85-1.09; P = 0.62]; at longest follow-up (median 21 months), they were 56.7 % (284/501) versus 61.0 % (302/495) (hazard ratio 0.88; 95 % CI 0.75-1.03; P = 0.12). We obtained HRQoL data at 1 year in 629 of the 777 (81 %) Danish patients, and mean differences between the lower- and higher-threshold group in scores of physical HRQoL were 0.4 (95 % CI -2.4 to 3.1; P = 0.79) and in mental HRQoL 0.5 (95 % CI -3.1 to 4.0; P = 0.79). Long-term mortality rates and HRQoL did not differ in patients with septic shock and anaemia who were transfused at a haemoglobin threshold of 7 g/dl versus a threshold of 9 g/dl. We may reject a more than 3 % increased hazard of death in the lower- versus higher-threshold group at the time of longest follow-up.

Ecological risk assessment framework for low-altitude aircraft overflights: II. Estimating effects on wildlife.

PubMed

Efroymson, R A; Suter, G W

2001-04-01

An ecological risk assessment framework for aircraft overflights has been developed, with special emphasis on military applications. This article presents the analysis of effects and risk characterization phases; the problem formulation and exposure analysis phases are presented in a companion article. The framework addresses the effects of sound, visual stressors, and collision on the abundance and production of wildlife populations. Profiles of effects, including thresholds, are highlighted for two groups of endpoint species: ungulates (hoofed mammals) and pinnipeds (seals, sea lions, walruses). Several factors complicate the analysis of effects for aircraft overflights. Studies of the effects of aircraft overflights previously have not been associated with a quantitative assessment framework; therefore no consistent relations between exposure and population-level response have been developed. Information on behavioral effects of overflights by military aircraft (or component stressors) on most wildlife species is sparse. Moreover, models that relate behavioral changes to abundance or reproduction, and those that relate behavioral or hearing effects thresholds from one population to another are generally not available. The aggregation of sound frequencies, durations, and the view of the aircraft into the single exposure metric of slant distance is not always the best predictor of effects, but effects associated with more specific exposure metrics (e.g., narrow sound spectra) may not be easily determined or added. The weight of evidence and uncertainty analyses of the risk characterization for overflights are also discussed in this article.

Replica symmetric evaluation of the information transfer in a two-layer network in the presence of continuous and discrete stimuli.

PubMed

Del Prete, Valeria; Treves, Alessandro

2002-04-01

In a previous paper we have evaluated analytically the mutual information between the firing rates of N independent units and a set of multidimensional continuous and discrete stimuli, for a finite population size and in the limit of large noise. Here, we extend the analysis to the case of two interconnected populations, where input units activate output ones via Gaussian weights and a threshold linear transfer function. We evaluate the information carried by a population of M output units, again about continuous and discrete correlates. The mutual information is evaluated solving saddle-point equations under the assumption of replica symmetry, a method that, by taking into account only the term linear in N of the input information, is equivalent to assuming the noise to be large. Within this limitation, we analyze the dependence of the information on the ratio M/N, on the selectivity of the input units and on the level of the output noise. We show analytically, and confirm numerically, that in the limit of a linear transfer function and of a small ratio between output and input noise, the output information approaches asymptotically the information carried in input. Finally, we show that the information loss in output does not depend much on the structure of the stimulus, whether purely continuous, purely discrete or mixed, but only on the position of the threshold nonlinearity, and on the ratio between input and output noise.

Facilitation and refractoriness of the electrically evoked compound action potential.

PubMed

Hey, Matthias; Müller-Deile, Joachim; Hessel, Horst; Killian, Matthijs

2017-11-01

In this study we aim to resolve the contributions of facilitation and refractoriness at very short pulse intervals. Measurements of the refractory properties of the electrically evoked compound action potential (ECAP) of the auditory nerve in cochlear implant (CI) users at inter pulse intervals below 300 μs are influenced by facilitation and recovery effects. ECAPs were recorded using masker pulses with a wide range of current levels relative to the probe pulse levels, for three suprathreshold probe levels and pulse intervals from 13 to 200 μs. Evoked potentials were measured for 21 CI patients by using the masked response extraction artifact cancellation procedure. During analysis of the measurements the stimulation current was not used as absolute value, but in relation to the patient's individual ECAP threshold. This enabled a more general approach to describe facilitation as a probe level independent effect. Maximum facilitation was found for all tested inter pulse intervals at masker levels near patient's individual ECAP threshold, independent from probe level. For short inter pulse intervals an increased N 1 P 1 amplitude was measured for subthreshold masker levels down to 120 CL below patient's individual ECAP threshold in contrast to the recreated state. ECAPs recorded with inter pulse intervals up to 200 μs are influenced by facilitation and recovery. Facilitation effects are most pronounced for masker levels at or below ECAP threshold, while recovery effects increase with higher masker levels above ECAP threshold. The local maximum of the ECAP amplitude for masker levels around ECAP threshold can be explained by the mutual influence of maximum facilitation and minimal refractoriness. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Locust Phase Change Model with Multiple Switching States and Random Perturbation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiang, Changcheng; Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A.; Qin, Wenjie

2016-12-01

Insects such as locusts and some moths can transform from a solitarious phase when they remain in loose populations and a gregarious phase, when they may swarm. Therefore, the key to effective management of outbreaks of species such as the desert locust Schistocercagregaria is early detection of when they are in the threshold state between the two phases, followed by timely control of their hopper stages before they fledge because the control of flying adult swarms is costly and often ineffective. Definitions of gregarization thresholds should assist preventive control measures and avoid treatment of areas that might not lead to gregarization. In order to better understand the effects of the threshold density which represents the gregarization threshold on the outbreak of a locust population, we developed a model of a discrete switching system. The proposed model allows us to address: (1) How frequently switching occurs from solitarious to gregarious phases and vice versa; (2) When do stable switching transients occur, the existence of which indicate that solutions with larger amplitudes can switch to a stable attractor with a value less than the switching threshold density?; and (3) How does random perturbation influence the switching pattern? Our results show that both subsystems have refuge equilibrium points, outbreak equilibrium points and bistable equilibria. Further, the outbreak equilibrium points and bistable equilibria can coexist for a wide range of parameters and can switch from one to another. This type of switching is sensitive to the intrinsic growth rate and the initial values of the locust population, and may result in locust population outbreaks and phase switching once a small perturbation occurs. Moreover, the simulation results indicate that the switching transient patterns become identical after some generations, suggesting that the evolving process of the perturbation system is not related to the initial value after some fixed number of generations for the same stochastic processes. However, the switching frequency and outbreak patterns can be significantly affected by the intensity of noise and the intrinsic growth rate of the locust population.

Determination of the threshold dose distribution in photodynamic action from in vitro experiments.

PubMed

de Faria, Clara Maria Gonçalves; Inada, Natalia Mayumi; Kurachi, Cristina; Bagnato, Vanderlei Salvador

2016-09-01

The concept of threshold in photodynamic action on cells or microorganisms is well observed in experiments but not fully explored on in vitro experiments. The intercomparison between light and used photosensitizer among many experiments is also poorly evaluated. In this report, we present an analytical model that allows extracting from the survival rate experiments the data of the threshold dose distribution, ie, the distribution of energies and photosensitizer concentration necessary to produce death of cells. Then, we use this model to investigate photodynamic therapy (PDT) data previously published in literature. The concept of threshold dose distribution instead of "single value of threshold" is a rich concept for the comparison of photodynamic action in different situations, allowing analyses of its efficiency as well as determination of optimized conditions for PDT. We observed that, in general, as it becomes more difficult to kill a population, the distribution tends to broaden, which means it presents a large spectrum of threshold values within the same cell type population. From the distribution parameters (center peak and full width), we also observed a clear distinction among cell types regarding their response to PDT that can be quantified. Comparing data obtained from the same cell line and used photosensitizer (PS), where the only distinct condition was the light source's wavelength, we found that the differences on the distribution parameters were comparable to the differences on the PS absorption. At last, we observed evidence that the threshold dose distribution matches the curve of apoptotic activity for some PSs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pressure and cold pain threshold reference values in a large, young adult, pain-free population.

PubMed

Waller, Robert; Smith, Anne Julia; O'Sullivan, Peter Bruce; Slater, Helen; Sterling, Michele; McVeigh, Joanne Alexandra; Straker, Leon Melville

2016-10-01

Currently there is a lack of large population studies that have investigated pain sensitivity distributions in healthy pain free people. The aims of this study were: (1) to provide sex-specific reference values of pressure and cold pain thresholds in young pain-free adults; (2) to examine the association of potential correlates of pain sensitivity with pain threshold values. This study investigated sex specific pressure and cold pain threshold estimates for young pain free adults aged 21-24 years. A cross-sectional design was utilised using participants (n=617) from the Western Australian Pregnancy Cohort (Raine) Study at the 22-year follow-up. The association of site, sex, height, weight, smoking, health related quality of life, psychological measures and activity with pain threshold values was examined. Pressure pain threshold (lumbar spine, tibialis anterior, neck and dorsal wrist) and cold pain threshold (dorsal wrist) were assessed using standardised quantitative sensory testing protocols. Reference values for pressure pain threshold (four body sites) stratified by sex and site, and cold pain threshold (dorsal wrist) stratified by sex are provided. Statistically significant, independent correlates of increased pressure pain sensitivity measures were site (neck, dorsal wrist), sex (female), higher waist-hip ratio and poorer mental health. Statistically significant, independent correlates of increased cold pain sensitivity measures were, sex (female), poorer mental health and smoking. These data provide the most comprehensive and robust sex specific reference values for pressure pain threshold specific to four body sites and cold pain threshold at the dorsal wrist for young adults aged 21-24 years. Establishing normative values in this young age group is important given that the transition from adolescence to adulthood is a critical temporal period during which trajectories for persistent pain can be established. These data will provide an important research resource to enable more accurate profiling and interpretation of pain sensitivity in clinical pain disorders in young adults. The robust and comprehensive data can assist interpretation of future clinical pain studies and provide further insight into the complex associations of pain sensitivity that can be used in future research. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A novel threshold criterion in transcranial motor evoked potentials during surgery for gliomas close to the motor pathway.

PubMed

Abboud, Tammam; Schaper, Miriam; Dührsen, Lasse; Schwarz, Cindy; Schmidt, Nils Ole; Westphal, Manfred; Martens, Tobias

2016-10-01

OBJECTIVE Warning criteria for monitoring of motor evoked potentials (MEP) after direct cortical stimulation during surgery for supratentorial tumors have been well described. However, little is known about the value of MEP after transcranial electrical stimulation (TES) in predicting postoperative motor deficit when monitoring threshold level. The authors aimed to evaluate the feasibility and value of this method in glioma surgery by using a new approach for interpreting changes in threshold level involving contra- and ipsilateral MEP. METHODS Between November 2013 and December 2014, 93 patients underwent TES-MEP monitoring during resection of gliomas located close to central motor pathways but not involving the primary motor cortex. The MEP were elicited by transcranial repetitive anodal train stimulation. Bilateral MEP were continuously evaluated to assess percentage increase of threshold level (minimum voltage needed to evoke a stable motor response from each of the muscles being monitored) from the baseline set before dural opening. An increase in threshold level on the contralateral side (facial, arm, or leg muscles contralateral to the affected hemisphere) of more than 20% beyond the percentage increase on the ipsilateral side (facial, arm, or leg muscles ipsilateral to the affected hemisphere) was considered a significant alteration. Recorded alterations were subsequently correlated with postoperative neurological deterioration and MRI findings. RESULTS TES-MEP could be elicited in all patients, including those with recurrent glioma (31 patients) and preoperative paresis (20 patients). Five of 73 patients without preoperative paresis showed a significant increase in threshold level, and all of them developed new paresis postoperatively (transient in 4 patients and permanent in 1 patient). Eight of 20 patients with preoperative paresis showed a significant increase in threshold level, and all of them developed postoperative neurological deterioration (transient in 4 patients and permanent in 4 patients). In 80 patients no significant change in threshold level was detected, and none of them showed postoperative neurological deterioration. The specificity and sensitivity in this series were estimated at 100%. Postoperative MRI revealed gross-total tumor resection in 56 of 82 patients (68%) in whom complete tumor resection was attainable; territorial ischemia was detected in 4 patients. CONCLUSIONS The novel threshold criterion has made TES-MEP a useful method for predicting postoperative motor deficit in patients who undergo glioma surgery, and has been feasible in patients with preoperative paresis as well as in patients with recurrent glioma. Including contra- and ipsilateral changes in threshold level has led to a high sensitivity and specificity.

Dynamic energy budget as a basis to model population-level effects of zinc-spiked sediments in the gastropod Valvata piscinalis.

PubMed

Ducrot, Virginie; Péry, Alexandre R R; Mons, Raphaël; Quéau, Hervé; Charles, Sandrine; Garric, Jeanne

2007-08-01

This paper presents original toxicity test designs and mathematical models that may be used to assess the deleterious effects of toxicants on Valvata piscinalis (Mollusca, Gastropoda). Results obtained for zinc, used as a reference toxicant, are presented. The feeding behavior, juvenile survival, growth, age at puberty, onset of reproduction, number of breedings during the life cycle, and fecundity were significantly altered when the snails were exposed to zinc-spiked sediments. Dynamic energy budget models (DEBtox) adequately predicted the effects of zinc on the V. piscinalis life cycle. They also provided estimates for lifecycle parameters that were used to parameterize a demographic model, based on a Z-transformed life-cycle graph. The effect threshold for the population growth rate (lambda) was estimated at 259 mg/kg dry sediment of zinc, showing that significant changes in abundance may occur at environmental concentrations. Significant effects occurring just above this threshold value were mainly caused by the severe impairment of reproductive endpoints. Sensitivity analysis showed that the value of lambda depended mainly on the juvenile survival rate. The impairment of this latter parameter may result in extinction of V. piscinalis. Finally, the present study highlights advantages of the proposed modeling approach in V. piscinalis and possible transfer to other test species and contaminants.

A critical review of the potential impacts of marine seismic surveys on fish & invertebrates.

PubMed

Carroll, A G; Przeslawski, R; Duncan, A; Gunning, M; Bruce, B

2017-01-15

Marine seismic surveys produce high intensity, low-frequency impulsive sounds at regular intervals, with most sound produced between 10 and 300Hz. Offshore seismic surveys have long been considered to be disruptive to fisheries, but there are few ecological studies that target commercially important species, particularly invertebrates. This review aims to summarise scientific studies investigating the impacts of low-frequency sound on marine fish and invertebrates, as well as to critically evaluate how such studies may apply to field populations exposed to seismic operations. We focus on marine seismic surveys due to their associated unique sound properties (i.e. acute, low-frequency, mobile source locations), as well as fish and invertebrates due to the commercial value of many species in these groups. The main challenges of seismic impact research are the translation of laboratory results to field populations over a range of sound exposure scenarios and the lack of sound exposure standardisation which hinders the identification of response thresholds. An integrated multidisciplinary approach to manipulative and in situ studies is the most effective way to establish impact thresholds in the context of realistic exposure levels, but if that is not practical the limitations of each approach must be carefully considered. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cumulative risk effects for the development of behaviour difficulties in children and adolescents with special educational needs and disabilities.

PubMed

Oldfield, Jeremy; Humphrey, Neil; Hebron, Judith

2015-01-01

Research has identified multiple risk factors for the development of behaviour difficulties. What have been less explored are the cumulative effects of exposure to multiple risks on behavioural outcomes, with no study specifically investigating these effects within a population of young people with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). Furthermore, it is unclear whether a threshold or linear risk model better fits the data for this population. The sample included 2660 children and 1628 adolescents with SEND. Risk factors associated with increases in behaviour difficulties over an 18-month period were summed to create a cumulative risk score, with this explanatory variable being added into a multi-level model. A quadratic term was then added to test the threshold model. There was evidence of a cumulative risk effect, suggesting that exposure to higher numbers of risk factors, regardless of their exact nature, resulted in increased behaviour difficulties. The relationship between risk and behaviour difficulties was non-linear, with exposure to increasing risk having a disproportionate and detrimental impact on behaviour difficulties in child and adolescent models. Interventions aimed at reducing behaviour difficulties need to consider the impact of multiple risk variables. Tailoring interventions towards those exposed to large numbers of risks would be advantageous. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correction of the near threshold behavior of electron collisional excitation cross-sections in the plane-wave Born approximation

DOE PAGES

Kilcrease, D. P.; Brookes, S.

2013-08-19

The modeling of NLTE plasmas requires the solution of population rate equations to determine the populations of the various atomic levels relevant to a particular problem. The equations require many cross sections for excitation, de-excitation, ionization and recombination. Additionally, a simple and computational fast way to calculate electron collisional excitation cross-sections for ions is by using the plane-wave Born approximation. This is essentially a high-energy approximation and the cross section suffers from the unphysical problem of going to zero near threshold. Various remedies for this problem have been employed with varying degrees of success. We present a correction procedure formore » the Born cross-sections that employs the Elwert–Sommerfeld factor to correct for the use of plane waves instead of Coulomb waves in an attempt to produce a cross-section similar to that from using the more time consuming Coulomb Born approximation. We compare this new approximation with other, often employed correction procedures. Furthermore, we also look at some further modifications to our Born Elwert procedure and its combination with Y.K. Kim's correction of the Coulomb Born approximation for singly charged ions that more accurately approximate convergent close coupling calculations.« less

Hierarchical population monitoring of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and California—Identifying populations for management at the appropriate spatial scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Wann, Gregory T.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Hanser, Steven E.; Doherty, Kevin E.; O'Donnell, Michael S.; Edmunds, David R.; Espinosa, Shawn P.

2017-08-10

Population ecologists have long recognized the importance of ecological scale in understanding processes that guide observed demographic patterns for wildlife species. However, directly incorporating spatial and temporal scale into monitoring strategies that detect whether trajectories are driven by local or regional factors is challenging and rarely implemented. Identifying the appropriate scale is critical to the development of management actions that can attenuate or reverse population declines. We describe a novel example of a monitoring framework for estimating annual rates of population change for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) within a hierarchical and spatially nested structure. Specifically, we conducted Bayesian analyses on a 17-year dataset (2000–2016) of lek counts in Nevada and northeastern California to estimate annual rates of population change, and compared trends across nested spatial scales. We identified leks and larger scale populations in immediate need of management, based on the occurrence of two criteria: (1) crossing of a destabilizing threshold designed to identify significant rates of population decline at a particular nested scale; and (2) crossing of decoupling thresholds designed to identify rates of population decline at smaller scales that decouple from rates of population change at a larger spatial scale. This approach establishes how declines affected by local disturbances can be separated from those operating at larger scales (for example, broad-scale wildfire and region-wide drought). Given the threshold output from our analysis, this adaptive management framework can be implemented readily and annually to facilitate responsive and effective actions for sage-grouse populations in the Great Basin. The rules of the framework can also be modified to identify populations responding positively to management action or demonstrating strong resilience to disturbance. Similar hierarchical approaches might be beneficial for other species occupying landscapes with heterogeneous disturbance and climatic regimes.

The effect of hyperbaric conditions on olfactory functions.

PubMed

Ay, Hakan; Salihoglu, Murat; Altundag, Aytug; Tekeli, Hakan; Memis, Ali; Cayonu, Melih

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of increased atmospheric pressure (AP) on olfactory function. The present study included 40 healthy volunteers with no history of chronic rhinosinusitis and nasal polyposis. The experimental procedure consisted of two episodes: (a) baseline episode, with normal AP; 1 absolute atmosphere (atm abs) in a test room at sea level; (b) experimental episode, increased level of AP; 2.4 atm abs in the hyperbaric chamber. Sino-nasal outcome test-20, Trail Making Test A and olfactory testing were performed in each episodes. The study group consisted of 23 men (57.5%) and 17 women (42.5%); the mean age of the study population was 38.7 +/- 9 years (range 23-58 years). The current investigation produced two major findings: (1) the mean of odor threshold scores was significantly increased in the hyperbaric condition when compared to the normobaric condition; (2) rather, there was no significant change in odor discrimination and identification scores in the hyperbaric condition. Based on two measurements taken at two different barometric pressures and the same temperature and relative humidity, this study suggests that odor threshold scores increase under hyperbaric conditions.

Forecasting the viability of sea turtle eggs in a warming world.

PubMed

Pike, David A

2014-01-01

Animals living in tropical regions may be at increased risk from climate change because current temperatures at these locations already approach critical physiological thresholds. Relatively small temperature increases could cause animals to exceed these thresholds more often, resulting in substantial fitness costs or even death. Oviparous species could be especially vulnerable because the maximum thermal tolerances of incubating embryos is often lower than adult counterparts, and in many species mothers abandon the eggs after oviposition, rendering them immobile and thus unable to avoid extreme temperatures. As a consequence, the effects of climate change might become evident earlier and be more devastating for hatchling production in the tropics. Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) have the widest nesting range of any living reptile, spanning temperate to tropical latitudes in both hemispheres. Currently, loggerhead sea turtle populations in the tropics produce nearly 30% fewer hatchlings per nest than temperate populations. Strong correlations between empirical hatching success and habitat quality allowed global predictions of the spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on this fitness trait. Under climate change, many sea turtle populations nesting in tropical environments are predicted to experience severe reductions in hatchling production, whereas hatching success in many temperate populations could remain unchanged or even increase with rising temperatures. Some populations could show very complex responses to climate change, with higher relative hatchling production as temperatures begin to increase, followed by declines as critical physiological thresholds are exceeded more frequently. Predicting when, where, and how climate change could impact the reproductive output of local populations is crucial for anticipating how a warming world will influence population size, growth, and stability.

Relationships between human population density and burned area at continental and global scales.

PubMed

Bistinas, Ioannis; Oom, Duarte; Sá, Ana C L; Harrison, Sandy P; Prentice, I Colin; Pereira, José M C

2013-01-01

We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning.

Relationships between Human Population Density and Burned Area at Continental and Global Scales

PubMed Central

Bistinas, Ioannis; Oom, Duarte; Sá, Ana C. L.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Prentice, I. Colin; Pereira, José M. C.

2013-01-01

We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning. PMID:24358108

Orthorexia nervosa in the general population: a preliminary screening using a self-administered questionnaire (ORTO-15).

PubMed

Ramacciotti, C E; Perrone, P; Coli, E; Burgalassi, A; Conversano, C; Massimetti, G; Dell'Osso, L

2011-06-01

Orthorexia, from the Greek words orthos (straight, proper) and orexis (appetite), is a newly conceptualized disorder characterized by distorted eating habits and cognitions concerning supposedly healthy nutrition. In this article we present preliminary results of a wider research aimed to investigate the diffusion of Orthorexia in the general population and to highlight its characteristics and particularly the relationship with Eating Disorder and Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder. One-hundred and seventy seven adult subjects from the general population, were administered the ORTO-15 test, a selfadministered questionnaire specifically designed to assess orthorexic symptomatology; note that statistical analyses were repeated twice, referring to different diagnostic thresholds (40/35). Orthorexia had a 57.6% prevalence in our sample, using the 40-point threshold, with a female/male ratio 2:1; the figure was sensibly lower with the 35-point threshold (21%). The results of this study highlight the diffusion of Orthorexia which may constitute an important risk factor for mental and physical health, but also the opportunity of more specific diagnostic instruments, so to facilitate a thorough understanding of this disorder.

A Mathematical Model of Anthrax Transmission in Animal Populations.

PubMed

Saad-Roy, C M; van den Driessche, P; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2017-02-01

A general mathematical model of anthrax (caused by Bacillus anthracis) transmission is formulated that includes live animals, infected carcasses and spores in the environment. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is calculated, and existence of a unique endemic equilibrium is established for [Formula: see text] above the threshold value 1. Using data from the literature, elasticity indices for [Formula: see text] and type reproduction numbers are computed to quantify anthrax control measures. Including only herbivorous animals, anthrax is eradicated if [Formula: see text]. For these animals, oscillatory solutions arising from Hopf bifurcations are numerically shown to exist for certain parameter values with [Formula: see text] and to have periodicity as observed from anthrax data. Including carnivores and assuming no disease-related death, anthrax again goes extinct below the threshold. Local stability of the endemic equilibrium is established above the threshold; thus, periodic solutions are not possible for these populations. It is shown numerically that oscillations in spore growth may drive oscillations in animal populations; however, the total number of infected animals remains about the same as with constant spore growth.

Decadal re-evaluation of contaminant exposure and productivity of ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) nesting in Chesapeake Bay Regions of Concern.

PubMed

Lazarus, Rebecca S; Rattner, Barnett A; McGowan, Peter C; Hale, Robert C; Schultz, Sandra L; Karouna-Renier, Natalie K; Ottinger, Mary Ann

2015-10-01

The last large-scale ecotoxicological study of ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) in Chesapeake Bay was conducted in 2000-2001 and focused on U.S. EPA-designated Regions of Concern (ROCs; Baltimore Harbor/Patapsco, Anacostia/middle Potomac, and Elizabeth Rivers). In 2011-2012, ROCs were re-evaluated to determine spatial and temporal trends in productivity and contaminants. Concentrations of p,p'-DDE were low in eggs and below the threshold associated with eggshell thinning. Eggs from the Anacostia/middle Potomac Rivers had lower total PCB concentrations in 2011 than in 2000; however, concentrations remained unchanged in Baltimore Harbor. Polybrominated diphenyl ether flame retardants declined by 40%, and five alternative brominated flame retardants were detected at low levels. Osprey productivity was adequate to sustain local populations, and there was no relation between productivity and halogenated contaminants. Our findings document continued recovery of the osprey population, declining levels of many persistent halogenated compounds, and modest evidence of genetic damage in nestlings from industrialized regions. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Decadal re-evaluation of contaminant exposure and productivity of ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) nesting in Chesapeake Bay Regions of Concern

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lazarus, Rebecca S.; Rattner, Barnett A.; McGowan, Peter C.; Hale, Robert C.; Schultz, Sandra; Karouna-Renier, Natalie K.; Ottinger, Mary Ann

2015-01-01

The last large-scale ecotoxicological study of ospreys (Pandion haliaetus) in Chesapeake Bay was conducted in 2000-2001 and focused on U.S. EPA-designated Regions of Concern (ROCs; Baltimore Harbor/Patapsco, Anacostia/middle Potomac, and Elizabeth Rivers). In 2011-2012, ROCs were re-evaluated to determine spatial and temporal trends in productivity and contaminants. Concentrations of p,p'-DDE were low in eggs and below the threshold associated with eggshell thinning. Eggs from the Anacostia/middle Potomac Rivers had lower total PCB concentrations in 2011 than in 2000; however, concentrations remained unchanged in Baltimore Harbor. Polybrominated diphenyl ether flame retardants declined by 40%, and five alternative brominated flame retardants were detected at low levels. Osprey productivity was adequate to sustain local populations, and there was no relation between productivity and halogenated contaminants. Our findings document continued recovery of the osprey population, declining levels of many persistent halogenated compounds, and modest evidence of genetic damage in nestlings from industrialized regions.

Do ankle orthoses improve ankle proprioceptive thresholds or unipedal balance in older persons with peripheral neuropathy?

PubMed

Son, Jaebum; Ashton-Miller, James A; Richardson, James K

2010-05-01

To determine whether ankle orthoses that provide medial and lateral support, and have been found to decrease gait variability in older persons with peripheral neuropathy, decrease (improve) frontal plane ankle proprioceptive thresholds or increase unipedal stance time in that same population. Observational study in which unipedal stance time was determined with a stopwatch, and frontal plane ankle (inversion and eversion) proprioceptive thresholds were quantified during bipedal stance using a foot cradle system and a series of 100 rotational stimuli, in 11 older neuropathic subjects (8 men; age 72 +/- 7.1 yr) with and without ankle orthoses. The subjects demonstrated no change in combined frontal plane (inversion + eversion) proprioceptive thresholds or unipedal stance time with vs. without the orthoses (1.06 +/- 0.56 vs. 1.13 +/- 0.39 degrees, respectively; P = 0.955 and 6.1 +/- 6.5 vs. 6.2 +/- 5.4 secs, respectively; P = 0.922). Ankle orthoses that provide medial-lateral support do not seem to change ankle inversion/eversion proprioceptive thresholds or unipedal stance time in older persons with diabetic peripheral neuropathy. Previously identified improvements in gait variability using orthoses in this population are therefore likely related to an orthotically induced stiffening of the ankle rather than a change in ankle afferent function.

Sliding mode control of outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases.

PubMed

Xiao, Yanni; Xu, Xiaxia; Tang, Sanyi

2012-10-01

This paper proposes and analyzes a mathematical model of an infectious disease system with a piecewise control function concerning threshold policy for disease management strategy. The proposed models extend the classic models by including a piecewise incidence rate to represent control or precautionary measures being triggered once the number of infected individuals exceeds a threshold level. The long-term behaviour of the proposed non-smooth system under this strategy consists of the so-called sliding motion-a very rapid switching between application and interruption of the control action. Model solutions ultimately approach either one of two endemic states for two structures or the sliding equilibrium on the switching surface, depending on the threshold level. Our findings suggest that proper combinations of threshold densities and control intensities based on threshold policy can either preclude outbreaks or lead the number of infected to a previously chosen level.

Thresholds for Shifting Visually Perceived Eye Level Due to Incremental Pitches

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Scott, Donald M.; Welch, Robert; Cohen, M. M.; Hill, Cyndi

2001-01-01

Visually perceived eye level (VPEL) was judged by subjects as they viewed a luminous grid pattern that was pitched by 2 or 5 deg increments between -20 deg and +20 deg. Subjects were dark adapted for 20 min and indicated--VPEL by directing the beam of a laser pointer to the rear wall of a 1.25 m cubic pitch box that rotated about a horizontal axis midpoint on the rear wall. Data were analyzed by ANOVA and the Tukey HSD procedure. Results showed a 10.0 deg threshold for pitches P(sub i) above the reference pitch P(sub 0), and a -10.3 deg threshold for pitches P(sub i) below-the reference-pitch P(sub 0). Threshold data for pitches P(sub i) < P(sub 0) suggest an asymmetric threshold for VPEL below and above physical eye level.

Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

2017-02-01

The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

Viability criteria for steelhead of the south-central and southern California coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boughton, David A.; Adams, Peter B.; Anderson, Eric; Fusaro, Craig; Keller, Edward A.; Kelley, Elsie; Lentsch, Leo; Nielsen, Jennifer L.; Perry, Katie; Regan, Helen; Smith, Jerry; Swift, Camm C.; Thompson, Lisa; Watson, Fred

2007-01-01

Recovery planning for threatened and endangered steelhead requires measurable, objective criteria for determining an acceptably low risk of extinction. Here we propose viability criteria for two levels of biological organization: individual populations, and groups of populations within the SouthCentral/Southern California Coast Steelhead Recovery Planning Domain. For populations, we adapt criteria commonly used by the IUCN (The World Conservation Union) for identifying at-risk species. For groups of populations we implement a diversity-based “representation and redundancy rule,” in which diversity includes both life-history diversity and biogeographic groupings of populations. The resulting criteria have the potential for straightforward assessment of the risks posed by evolutionary, demographic, environmental, and catastrophic factors; and are designed to use data that are readily collected. However, our prescriptive approach led to one criterion whose threshold could not yet be specified due to inadequate data, and others in which the simplicity of the criteria may render them inefficient for populations with stable run sizes or stable life-history polymorphisms. Both of these problems could likely be solved by directed programs of research and monitoring aimed at developing more efficient (but equally risk-averse) “performance-based criteria.” Of particular utility would be data on the natural fluctuations of populations, research into the stabilizing influence of life-history polymorphisms, and research on the implications of drought, wildfires, and fluvial sediment regimes. Research on estuarine habitat could also yield useful information on the generality and reliability of its role as nursery habitat. Currently, risk assessment at the population level is not possible due to data deficiency, highlighting the need to implement a comprehensive effort to monitor run sizes, anadromous fractions, spawner densities and perhaps marine survival. Assessment at the group level indicates a priority for securing inland populations in the southern Coast Ranges and Transverse Ranges, and a need to maintain not just the fluvial-anadromous life-history form, but also lagoon-anadromous and freshwater-resident forms in each population.

Continuous-wave lasing in colloidal quantum dot solids enabled by facet-selective epitaxy.

PubMed

Fan, Fengjia; Voznyy, Oleksandr; Sabatini, Randy P; Bicanic, Kristopher T; Adachi, Michael M; McBride, James R; Reid, Kemar R; Park, Young-Shin; Li, Xiyan; Jain, Ankit; Quintero-Bermudez, Rafael; Saravanapavanantham, Mayuran; Liu, Min; Korkusinski, Marek; Hawrylak, Pawel; Klimov, Victor I; Rosenthal, Sandra J; Hoogland, Sjoerd; Sargent, Edward H

2017-04-06

Colloidal quantum dots (CQDs) feature a low degeneracy of electronic states at the band edges compared with the corresponding bulk material, as well as a narrow emission linewidth. Unfortunately for potential laser applications, this degeneracy is incompletely lifted in the valence band, spreading the hole population among several states at room temperature. This leads to increased optical gain thresholds, demanding high photoexcitation levels to achieve population inversion (more electrons in excited states than in ground states-the condition for optical gain). This, in turn, increases Auger recombination losses, limiting the gain lifetime to sub-nanoseconds and preventing steady laser action. State degeneracy also broadens the photoluminescence linewidth at the single-particle level. Here we demonstrate a way to decrease the band-edge degeneracy and single-dot photoluminescence linewidth in CQDs by means of uniform biaxial strain. We have developed a synthetic strategy that we term facet-selective epitaxy: we first switch off, and then switch on, shell growth on the (0001) facet of wurtzite CdSe cores, producing asymmetric compressive shells that create built-in biaxial strain, while still maintaining excellent surface passivation (preventing defect formation, which otherwise would cause non-radiative recombination losses). Our synthesis spreads the excitonic fine structure uniformly and sufficiently broadly that it prevents valence-band-edge states from being thermally depopulated. We thereby reduce the optical gain threshold and demonstrate continuous-wave lasing from CQD solids, expanding the library of solution-processed materials that may be capable of continuous-wave lasing. The individual CQDs exhibit an ultra-narrow single-dot linewidth, and we successfully propagate this into the ensemble of CQDs.

PSA and Prostate Health Index based prostate cancer screening in a hereditary migration complicated population: implications in precision diagnosis.

PubMed

Akizhanova, Mariyam; Iskakova, Elzira E; Kim, Valdemir; Wang, Xiao; Kogay, Roman; Turebayeva, Aiym; Sun, Qinglei; Zheng, Ting; Wu, Shenghui; Miao, Lixia; Xie, Yingqiu

2017-01-01

Precision diagnosis requires specific markers for differential ethnic populations. Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) level (threshold of 4ng/ml) has been widely used to screen prostate cancer and as reference of pro-biopsy but false diagnosis frequently occurs. Prostate health Index (PHI) is a new diagnosis marker which combines PSA, free PSA and p2PSA4. Overall the PCa screening database is lacking in Kazakhstani patients. We analyzed the PSA levels and Gleason scores of 222 biopsies collected in 2015 in Almaty area, Kazakhstan approved by institutional ethics board. We found using PSA of 4ng/ml as threshold, only 25.68% of patients have cancer with Gleason score ranged 6-8 and 65.77% of patients have no character of cancer. Moreover, there is no significant correlation between PSA and cancerous (P=0.266) or Gleason grade (P=0.3046) based on pathological biopsy. In addition, PHI is not correlated to prostate cancer (P=0.4301). Our data suggest that false-positive rate is much higher than the correct-positive diagnosis when using PSA as the first screening. Thus in this cohort study, most patients can not get benefit from the PSA screening for precision PCa diagnosis. As Kazakhstani family trees are unique and complicated because of history and migration, the high rate of over diagnosis might be due to the hyperexpression of PSA via heterosis in Eurasian men. Therefore we should be cautious when using pro-biopsy in precision diagnosis for Eurasian prostate cancer patients.

Appropriate threshold levels of cardiac beat-to-beat variation in semi-automatic analysis of equine ECG recordings.

PubMed

Flethøj, Mette; Kanters, Jørgen K; Pedersen, Philip J; Haugaard, Maria M; Carstensen, Helena; Olsen, Lisbeth H; Buhl, Rikke

2016-11-28

Although premature beats are a matter of concern in horses, the interpretation of equine ECG recordings is complicated by a lack of standardized analysis criteria and a limited knowledge of the normal beat-to-beat variation of equine cardiac rhythm. The purpose of this study was to determine the appropriate threshold levels of maximum acceptable deviation of RR intervals in equine ECG analysis, and to evaluate a novel two-step timing algorithm by quantifying the frequency of arrhythmias in a cohort of healthy adult endurance horses. Beat-to-beat variation differed considerably with heart rate (HR), and an adaptable model consisting of three different HR ranges with separate threshold levels of maximum acceptable RR deviation was consequently defined. For resting HRs <60 beats/min (bpm) the threshold level of RR deviation was set at 20%, for HRs in the intermediate range between 60 and 100 bpm the threshold was 10%, and for exercising HRs >100 bpm, the threshold level was 4%. Supraventricular premature beats represented the most prevalent arrhythmia category with varying frequencies in seven horses at rest (median 7, range 2-86) and six horses during exercise (median 2, range 1-24). Beat-to-beat variation of equine cardiac rhythm varies according to HR, and threshold levels in equine ECG analysis should be adjusted accordingly. Standardization of the analysis criteria will enable comparisons of studies and follow-up examinations of patients. A small number of supraventricular premature beats appears to be a normal finding in endurance horses. Further studies are required to validate the findings and determine the clinical significance of premature beats in horses.

Differential responses to acoustic damage and furosemide in auditory brainstem and otoacoustic emission measures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mills, David M.

2003-02-01

Characteristics of distortion product otoacoustic emissions (DPOAEs) and auditory brainstem responses (ABRs) were measured in Mongolian gerbil before and after the introduction of two different auditory dysfunctions: (1) acoustic damage with a high-intensity tone, or (2) furosemide intoxication. The goal was to find emission parameters and measures that best differentiated between the two dysfunctions, e.g., at a given ABR threshold elevation. Emission input-output or ``growth'' functions were used (frequencies f1 and f2, f2/f1=1.21) with equal levels, L1=L2, and unequal levels, with L1=L2+20 dB. The best parametric choice was found to be unequal stimulus levels, and the best measure was found to be the change in the emission threshold level, Δx. The emission threshold was defined as the stimulus level required to reach a criterion emission amplitude, in this case -10 dB SPL. (The next best measure was the change in emission amplitude at high stimulus levels, specifically that measured at L1×L2=90×70 dB SPL.) For an ABR threshold shift of 20 dB or more, there was essentially no overlap in the emission threshold measures for the two conditions, sound damage or furosemide. The dividing line between the two distributions increased slowly with the change in ABR threshold, ΔABR, and was given by Δxt=0.6 ΔABR+8 dB. For a given ΔABR, if the shift in emission threshold was more than the calculated dividing line value, Δxt, the auditory dysfunction was due to acoustic damage, if less, it was due to furosemide.

Plasticity after pediatric cochlear implantation: Implication from changes in peripheral plasma level of BDNF and auditory nerve responses.

PubMed

Alemi, Razieh; Motassadi Zarandy, Masoud; Joghataei, Mohammad Taghi; Eftekharian, Ali; Zarrindast, Mohammad Reza; Vousooghi, Nasim

2018-02-01

Sensory neural hearing loss could lead to some structural and physiological changes in the auditory pathways, such as alteration in the expression of neurotrophins. These factors, especially Brain-Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF), play an important role in synaptic functions and experience-related plasticity. Restoring cochlear function after hearing loss is possible through cochlear implantation (CI). Evaluation of the blood concentration changes of neurotrophins as prerequisites of plasticity could help scientists to determine the prognosis of CI as in the candidacy procedure or enhancing prosthesis function by adding the exact needed amount of BDNF to the electrode array. Here we have studied the plasma BDNF concentration before CI surgery and 6 months after using CI device in 15 pediatric CI recipients and compared this level with changes of BDNF concentration in 10 children who were using hearing aid (H.A). In addition, we searched for a possible correlation between post-surgery plasma BDNF concentration and electrical compound action potential (ECAP) and comfort-level (C-level) thresholds. Plasma BDNF concentration in children with CI increased significantly after CI surgery, while this difference in H.A group was not significant. Analysis of repeated measures of ECAP and C-level thresholds in CI group showed that there were some kinds of steadiness during follow- up sessions for ECAP thresholds in basal and E16 of middle electrodes, whereas C-level thresholds for all selected electrodes increased significantly up to six months follow-up. Interestingly, we did not find any significant correlation between post-surgery plasma BDNF concentration and ECAP or C-level threshold changes. It is concluded that changes in C-level threshold and steady state of ECAP thresholds and significant changes in BDNF concentration could be regarded as an indicator of experienced-related plasticity after CI stimulation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stochastic analysis of epidemics on adaptive time varying networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kotnis, Bhushan; Kuri, Joy

2013-06-01

Many studies investigating the effect of human social connectivity structures (networks) and human behavioral adaptations on the spread of infectious diseases have assumed either a static connectivity structure or a network which adapts itself in response to the epidemic (adaptive networks). However, human social connections are inherently dynamic or time varying. Furthermore, the spread of many infectious diseases occur on a time scale comparable to the time scale of the evolving network structure. Here we aim to quantify the effect of human behavioral adaptations on the spread of asymptomatic infectious diseases on time varying networks. We perform a full stochastic analysis using a continuous time Markov chain approach for calculating the outbreak probability, mean epidemic duration, epidemic reemergence probability, etc. Additionally, we use mean-field theory for calculating epidemic thresholds. Theoretical predictions are verified using extensive simulations. Our studies have uncovered the existence of an “adaptive threshold,” i.e., when the ratio of susceptibility (or infectivity) rate to recovery rate is below the threshold value, adaptive behavior can prevent the epidemic. However, if it is above the threshold, no amount of behavioral adaptations can prevent the epidemic. Our analyses suggest that the interaction patterns of the infected population play a major role in sustaining the epidemic. Our results have implications on epidemic containment policies, as awareness campaigns and human behavioral responses can be effective only if the interaction levels of the infected populace are kept in check.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the performance of clinical risk assessment instruments for screening for osteoporosis or low bone density

PubMed Central

Edwards, D. L.; Saleh, A. A.; Greenspan, S. L.

2015-01-01

Summary We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the performance of clinical risk assessment instruments for screening for DXA-determined osteoporosis or low bone density. Commonly evaluated risk instruments showed high sensitivity approaching or exceeding 90 % at particular thresholds within various populations but low specificity at thresholds required for high sensitivity. Simpler instruments, such as OST, generally performed as well as or better than more complex instruments. Introduction The purpose of the study is to systematically review the performance of clinical risk assessment instruments for screening for dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-determined osteoporosis or low bone density. Methods Systematic review and meta-analysis were performed. Multiple literature sources were searched, and data extracted and analyzed from included references. Results One hundred eight references met inclusion criteria. Studies assessed many instruments in 34 countries, most commonly the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool (OST), the Simple Calculated Osteoporosis Risk Estimation (SCORE) instrument, the Osteoporosis Self-Assessment Tool for Asians (OSTA), the Osteoporosis Risk Assessment Instrument (ORAI), and body weight criteria. Meta-analyses of studies evaluating OST using a cutoff threshold of <1 to identify US postmenopausal women with osteoporosis at the femoral neck provided summary sensitivity and specificity estimates of 89 % (95%CI 82–96 %) and 41 % (95%CI 23–59 %), respectively. Meta-analyses of studies evaluating OST using a cutoff threshold of 3 to identify US men with osteoporosis at the femoral neck, total hip, or lumbar spine provided summary sensitivity and specificity estimates of 88 % (95%CI 79–97 %) and 55 % (95%CI 42–68 %), respectively. Frequently evaluated instruments each had thresholds and populations for which sensitivity for osteoporosis or low bone mass detection approached or exceeded 90 % but always with a trade-off of relatively low specificity. Conclusions Commonly evaluated clinical risk assessment instruments each showed high sensitivity approaching or exceeding 90 % for identifying individuals with DXA-determined osteoporosis or low BMD at certain thresholds in different populations but low specificity at thresholds required for high sensitivity. Simpler instruments, such as OST, generally performed as well as or better than more complex instruments. PMID:25644147

Differences in Speech Recognition Between Children with Attention Deficits and Typically Developed Children Disappear When Exposed to 65 dB of Auditory Noise

PubMed Central

Söderlund, Göran B. W.; Jobs, Elisabeth Nilsson

2016-01-01

The most common neuropsychiatric condition in the in children is attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), affecting ∼6–9% of the population. ADHD is distinguished by inattention and hyperactive, impulsive behaviors as well as poor performance in various cognitive tasks often leading to failures at school. Sensory and perceptual dysfunctions have also been noticed. Prior research has mainly focused on limitations in executive functioning where differences are often explained by deficits in pre-frontal cortex activation. Less notice has been given to sensory perception and subcortical functioning in ADHD. Recent research has shown that children with ADHD diagnosis have a deviant auditory brain stem response compared to healthy controls. The aim of the present study was to investigate if the speech recognition threshold differs between attentive and children with ADHD symptoms in two environmental sound conditions, with and without external noise. Previous research has namely shown that children with attention deficits can benefit from white noise exposure during cognitive tasks and here we investigate if noise benefit is present during an auditory perceptual task. For this purpose we used a modified Hagerman’s speech recognition test where children with and without attention deficits performed a binaural speech recognition task to assess the speech recognition threshold in no noise and noise conditions (65 dB). Results showed that the inattentive group displayed a higher speech recognition threshold than typically developed children and that the difference in speech recognition threshold disappeared when exposed to noise at supra threshold level. From this we conclude that inattention can partly be explained by sensory perceptual limitations that can possibly be ameliorated through noise exposure. PMID:26858679

Self-administered hearing loss screening using an interactive, tablet play audiometer with ear bud headphones.

PubMed

Yeung, Jeffrey C; Heley, Sophie; Beauregard, Yves; Champagne, Sandra; Bromwich, Matthew A

2015-08-01

The timely diagnosis and treatment of acquired hearing loss in the pediatric population has significant implications for a child's development. Audiological assessment in children, however, carries both technological and logistical challenges. Typically, specialized methods (such as play audiometry) are required to maintain the child's attention and can be resource intensive. These challenges were previously addressed by a novel, calibrated, interactive play audiometer for Apple(®) iOS(®) called "ShoeBOX Audiometry". This device has potential applications for deployment in environments where traditional clinical audiometry is either unavailable or impractical. The objective of this study was to assess the screening capability of the tablet audiometer in an uncontrolled environment using consumer ear-bud headphones. Consecutive patients presenting to the Audiology Clinic at the Children's Hospital of Eastern Ontario (ages 4 and older) were recruited. Participants' hearing was evaluted using the tablet audiometer calibrated to Apple(®) In-Ear headphones. The warble tone thresholds obtained were compared to gold standard measurements taken with a traditional clinical audiometer inside a soundbooth. 80 patients were enrolled. The majority of participants were capable of completing an audiologic assessment using the tablet computer. Due to ambient noise levels outside a soundbooth, thresholds obtained at 500Hz were not consistent with traditional audiometry. Excluding 500Hz threholds, the tablet audiometer demonstrated strong negative predictive value (89.7%) as well as strong sensitivity (91.2%) for hearing loss. Thresholds obtained in an uncontrolled setting are not reflective of diagnostic thresholds due to the uncalibrated nature of the headphones and variability of the setting without a booth. Nevertheless, the tablet audiometer proved to be both a valid and sensitive instrument for unsupervised screening of warble-tone thresholds in children. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of Degree of Urbanization and Lifetime Longest-Held Occupation on Cognitive Impairment Prevalence in an Older Spanish Population

PubMed Central

Lorenzo-López, Laura; Millán-Calenti, José C.; López-López, Rocío; Diego-Diez, Clara; Laffon, Blanca; Pásaro, Eduardo; Valdiglesias, Vanessa; Maseda, Ana

2017-01-01

Our aim was to estimate the prevalence of cognitive impairment in rural and urban elderly populations and to examine the relationship between lifetime occupation and general cognitive performance. A cross-sectional study was carried out covering a representative sample (n = 749) of adults aged ≥65 years. Two categories were created to define the degree of urbanization using a criterion of geographical contiguity in combination with a minimum population threshold: densely populated (urban) areas and intermediate-thinly populated (rural) areas. Occupational histories were ranked by skill level requirements according to the Spanish National Classification of Occupations. Prevalence estimates of cognitive impairment were measured with the Mini-Mental State Examination. Results show that rural residence was not significantly associated with higher risk of cognitive impairment. A protective effect of cognitive demands at work against age-related cognitive decline was observed. However, this effect was not independent of confounder factors, such as age and education. A low overall prevalence of cognitive impairment was observed (6.5%), compared with previous estimates, possibly due to the sample selection in senior centers. Occupation during active life is not an isolated protective factor against cognitive impairment, and it is closely related to educational level. In future geriatric programs, description of both factors should be taken into consideration in screening older adults at increased risk of cognitive impairment and dementia. PMID:28243214

Population-Based Trachoma Mapping in Six Evaluation Units of Papua New Guinea.

PubMed

Ko, Robert; Macleod, Colin; Pahau, David; Sokana, Oliver; Keys, Drew; Burnett, Anthea; Willis, Rebecca; Wabulembo, Geoffrey; Garap, Jambi; Solomon, Anthony W

2016-01-01

We sought to determine the prevalence of trachomatous inflammation - follicular (TF) in children aged 1-9 years, and trachomatous trichiasis (TT) in those aged ≥15 years, in suspected trachoma-endemic areas of Papua New Guinea (PNG). We carried out six population-based prevalence surveys using the protocol developed as part of the Global Trachoma Mapping Project. A total of 19,013 individuals were sampled for inclusion, with 15,641 (82.3%) consenting to participate. Four evaluation units had prevalences of TF in children ≥10%, above which threshold the World Health Organization (WHO) recommends mass drug administration (MDA) of azithromycin for at least three years; Western Province (South Fly/Daru) 11.2% (95% confidence interval, CI, 6.9-17.0%), Southern Highlands (East) 12.2% (95% CI 9.6-15.0%), Southern Highlands (West) 11.7% (95% CI 8.5-15.3%), and West New Britain 11.4% (95% CI 8.7-13.9%). TF prevalence was 5.0-9.9% in Madang (9.4%, 95% CI 6.1-13.0%) and National Capital District (6.0%. 95% CI 3.2-9.1%) where consideration of a single round of MDA is warranted. Cases of TT were not found outside West New Britain, in which four cases were seen, generating an estimated population-level prevalence of TT in adults of 0.10% (95% CI 0.00-0.40%) for West New Britain, below the WHO elimination threshold of 0.2% of those aged ≥15 years. Trachoma is a public health issue in PNG. However, other than in West New Britain, there are few data to support the idea that trachoma is a cause of blindness in PNG. Further research is needed to understand the stimulus for the active trachoma phenotype in these populations.

Genome-wide analysis of epistasis in body mass index using multiple human populations.

PubMed

Wei, Wen-Hua; Hemani, Gib; Gyenesei, Attila; Vitart, Veronique; Navarro, Pau; Hayward, Caroline; Cabrera, Claudia P; Huffman, Jennifer E; Knott, Sara A; Hicks, Andrew A; Rudan, Igor; Pramstaller, Peter P; Wild, Sarah H; Wilson, James F; Campbell, Harry; Hastie, Nicholas D; Wright, Alan F; Haley, Chris S

2012-08-01

We surveyed gene-gene interactions (epistasis) in human body mass index (BMI) in four European populations (n<1200) via exhaustive pair-wise genome scans where interactions were computed as F ratios by testing a linear regression model fitting two single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with interactions against the one without. Before the association tests, BMI was corrected for sex and age, normalised and adjusted for relatedness. Neither single SNPs nor SNP interactions were genome-wide significant in either cohort based on the consensus threshold (P=5.0E-08) and a Bonferroni corrected threshold (P=1.1E-12), respectively. Next we compared sub genome-wide significant SNP interactions (P<5.0E-08) across cohorts to identify common epistatic signals, where SNPs were annotated to genes to test for gene ontology (GO) enrichment. Among the epistatic genes contributing to the commonly enriched GO terms, 19 were shared across study cohorts of which 15 are previously published genome-wide association loci, including CDH13 (cadherin 13) associated with height and SORCS2 (sortilin-related VPS10 domain containing receptor 2) associated with circulating insulin-like growth factor 1 and binding protein 3. Interactions between the 19 shared epistatic genes and those involving BMI candidate loci (P<5.0E-08) were tested across cohorts and found eight replicated at the SNP level (P<0.05) in at least one cohort, which were further tested and showed limited replication in a separate European population (n>5000). We conclude that genome-wide analysis of epistasis in multiple populations is an effective approach to provide new insights into the genetic regulation of BMI but requires additional efforts to confirm the findings.

A statistical physics approach to scale-free networks and their behaviors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Fang

This thesis studies five problems of network properties from a unified local-to-global viewpoint of statistical physics: (1) We propose an algorithm that allows the discovery of communities within graphs of arbitrary size, based on Kirchhoff theory of electric networks. Its time complexity scales linearly with the network size. We additionally show how this algorithm allows for the swift discovery of the community surrounding a given node without having to extract all the communities out of a graph. (2) We present a dynamical theory of opinion formation that takes explicitly into account the structure of the social network in which individuals are embedded. We show that the weighted fraction of the population that holds a certain opinion is a martingale. We show that the importance of a given node is proportional to its degree. We verify our predictions by simulations. (3) We show that, when the information transmissibility decays with distance, the epidemic spread on a scale-free network has a finite threshold. We test our predictions by measuring the spread of messages in an organization and by numerical experiments. (4) Suppose users can switch between two behaviors when entering a queueing system: one that never restarts an initial request and one that restarts infinitely often. We show the existence of two thresholds. When the system load is below the lower threshold, it is always better off to be impatient. When above, it is always better off to be patient. Between the two thresholds there exists a homogeneous Nash equilibrium with non-trivial properties. We obtain exact solutions for the two thresholds. (5) We study the endogenous dynamics of reputations in a system consisting of firms with long horizons that provide services with varying levels of quality, and customers who assign to them reputations on the basis of the quality levels that they experience when interacting with them. We show that the dynamics can lead to either well defined equilibria or persistent nonlinear oscillations in the number of customers visiting a firm, implying unstable reputations. We establish the stable criteria.

Cigarette smoking causes hearing impairment among Bangladeshi population.

PubMed

Sumit, Ahmed Faisal; Das, Anindya; Sharmin, Zinat; Ahsan, Nazmul; Ohgami, Nobutaka; Kato, Masashi; Akhand, Anwarul Azim

2015-01-01

Lifestyle including smoking, noise exposure with MP3 player and drinking alcohol are considered as risk factors for affecting hearing synergistically. However, little is known about the association of cigarette smoking with hearing impairment among subjects who carry a lifestyle without using MP3 player and drinking alcohol. We showed here the influence of smoking on hearing among Bangladeshi subjects who maintain a lifestyle devoid of using MP3 player and drinking alcohol. A total of 184 subjects (smokers: 90; non-smokers: 94) were included considering their duration and frequency of smoking for conducting this study. The mean hearing thresholds of non-smoker subjects at 1, 4, 8 and 12 kHz frequencies were 5.63 ± 2.10, 8.56±5.75, 21.06 ± 11.06, 40.79 ± 20.36 decibel (dB), respectively and that of the smokers were 7 ± 3.8, 13.27 ± 8.4, 30.66 ± 12.50 and 56.88 ± 21.58 dB, respectively. The hearing thresholds of the smokers at 4, 8 and 12 kHz frequencies were significantly (p<0.05) higher than those of the non-smokers, while no significant differences were observed at 1 kHz frequency. We also observed no significant difference in auditory thresholds among smoker subgroups based on smoking frequency. In contrast, subjects smoked for longer duration (>5 years) showed higher level of auditory threshold (62.16 ± 19.87 dB) at 12 kHz frequency compared with that (41.52 ± 19.21 dB) of the subjects smoked for 1-5 years and the difference in auditory thresholds was statistically significant (p<0.0002). In this study, the Brinkman Index (BI) of smokers was from 6 to 440 and the adjusted odds ratio showed a positive correlation between hearing loss and smoking when adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI). In addition, age, but not BMI, also played positive role on hearing impairment at all frequencies. Thus, these findings suggested that cigarette smoking affects hearing level at all the frequencies tested but most significantly at extra higher frequencies.

Cigarette Smoking Causes Hearing Impairment among Bangladeshi Population

PubMed Central

Sumit, Ahmed Faisal; Das, Anindya; Sharmin, Zinat; Ahsan, Nazmul; Ohgami, Nobutaka; Kato, Masashi; Akhand, Anwarul Azim

2015-01-01

Lifestyle including smoking, noise exposure with MP3 player and drinking alcohol are considered as risk factors for affecting hearing synergistically. However, little is known about the association of cigarette smoking with hearing impairment among subjects who carry a lifestyle without using MP3 player and drinking alcohol. We showed here the influence of smoking on hearing among Bangladeshi subjects who maintain a lifestyle devoid of using MP3 player and drinking alcohol. A total of 184 subjects (smokers: 90; non-smokers: 94) were included considering their duration and frequency of smoking for conducting this study. The mean hearing thresholds of non-smoker subjects at 1, 4, 8 and 12 kHz frequencies were 5.63±2.10, 8.56±5.75, 21.06±11.06, 40.79±20.36 decibel (dB), respectively and that of the smokers were 7±3.8, 13.27±8.4, 30.66±12.50 and 56.88±21.58 dB, respectively. The hearing thresholds of the smokers at 4, 8 and 12 kHz frequencies were significantly (p<0.05) higher than those of the non-smokers, while no significant differences were observed at 1 kHz frequency. We also observed no significant difference in auditory thresholds among smoker subgroups based on smoking frequency. In contrast, subjects smoked for longer duration (>5 years) showed higher level of auditory threshold (62.16±19.87 dB) at 12 kHz frequency compared with that (41.52±19.21 dB) of the subjects smoked for 1-5 years and the difference in auditory thresholds was statistically significant (p<0.0002). In this study, the Brinkman Index (BI) of smokers was from 6 to 440 and the adjusted odds ratio showed a positive correlation between hearing loss and smoking when adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI). In addition, age, but not BMI, also played positive role on hearing impairment at all frequencies. Thus, these findings suggested that cigarette smoking affects hearing level at all the frequencies tested but most significantly at extra higher frequencies. PMID:25781179

Theories of Lethal Mutagenesis: From Error Catastrophe to Lethal Defection.

PubMed

Tejero, Héctor; Montero, Francisco; Nuño, Juan Carlos

2016-01-01

RNA viruses get extinct in a process called lethal mutagenesis when subjected to an increase in their mutation rate, for instance, by the action of mutagenic drugs. Several approaches have been proposed to understand this phenomenon. The extinction of RNA viruses by increased mutational pressure was inspired by the concept of the error threshold. The now classic quasispecies model predicts the existence of a limit to the mutation rate beyond which the genetic information of the wild type could not be efficiently transmitted to the next generation. This limit was called the error threshold, and for mutation rates larger than this threshold, the quasispecies was said to enter into error catastrophe. This transition has been assumed to foster the extinction of the whole population. Alternative explanations of lethal mutagenesis have been proposed recently. In the first place, a distinction is made between the error threshold and the extinction threshold, the mutation rate beyond which a population gets extinct. Extinction is explained from the effect the mutation rate has, throughout the mutational load, on the reproductive ability of the whole population. Secondly, lethal defection takes also into account the effect of interactions within mutant spectra, which have been shown to be determinant for the understanding the extinction of RNA virus due to an augmented mutational pressure. Nonetheless, some relevant issues concerning lethal mutagenesis are not completely understood yet, as so survival of the flattest, i.e. the development of resistance to lethal mutagenesis by evolving towards mutationally more robust regions of sequence space, or sublethal mutagenesis, i.e., the increase of the mutation rate below the extinction threshold which may boost the adaptability of RNA virus, increasing their ability to develop resistance to drugs (including mutagens). A better design of antiviral therapies will still require an improvement of our knowledge about lethal mutagenesis.

Thresholds of sea-level rise rate and sea-level acceleration rate in a vulnerable coastal wetland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, W.; Biber, P.; Bethel, M.

2017-12-01

Feedback among inundation, sediment trapping, and vegetation productivity help maintain coastal wetlands facing sea-level rise (SLR). However, when the SLR rate exceeds a threshold, coastal wetlands can collapse. Understanding the threshold help address the key challenge in ecology - nonlinear response of ecosystems to environmental change, and promote communication between ecologists and policy makers. We studied the threshold of SLR rate and developed a new threshold of SLR acceleration rate on sustainability of coastal wetlands as SLR is likely to accelerate due to the enhanced anthropogenic forces. We developed a mechanistic model to simulate wetland change and derived the SLR thresholds for Grand Bay, MS, a micro-tidal estuary with limited upland freshwater and sediment input in the northern Gulf of Mexico. The new SLR acceleration rate threshold complements the threshold of SLR rate and can help explain the temporal lag before the rapid decline of wetland area becomes evident after the SLR rate threshold is exceeded. Deriving these two thresholds depends on the temporal scale, the interaction of SLR with other environmental factors, and landscape metrics, which have not been fully accounted for before this study. The derived SLR rate thresholds range from 7.3 mm/yr to 11.9 mm/yr. The thresholds of SLR acceleration rate are 3.02×10-4 m/yr2 and 9.62×10-5 m/yr2 for 2050 and 2100 respectively. Based on the thresholds developed, predicted SLR that will adversely impact the coastal wetlands in Grand Bay by 2100 will fall within the likely range of SLR under a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), and beyond the very likely range under a low warming scenario (RCP2.6 or 3), highlighting the need to avoid the high warming scenario in the future if these marshes are to be preserved.

Threshold responses of Amazonian stream fishes to timing and extent of deforestation.

PubMed

Brejão, Gabriel L; Hoeinghaus, David J; Pérez-Mayorga, María Angélica; Ferraz, Silvio F B; Casatti, Lilian

2017-12-06

Deforestation is a primary driver of biodiversity change through habitat loss and fragmentation. Stream biodiversity may not respond to deforestation in a simple linear relationship. Rather, threshold responses to extent and timing of deforestation may occur. Identification of critical deforestation thresholds is needed for effective conservation and management. We tested for threshold responses of fish species and functional groups to degree of watershed and riparian zone deforestation and time since impact in 75 streams in the western Brazilian Amazon. We used remote sensing to assess deforestation from 1984 to 2011. Fish assemblages were sampled with seines and dip nets in a standardized manner. Fish species (n = 84) were classified into 20 functional groups based on ecomorphological traits associated with habitat use, feeding, and locomotion. Threshold responses were quantified using threshold indicator taxa analysis. Negative threshold responses to deforestation were common and consistently occurred at very low levels of deforestation (<20%) and soon after impact (<10 years). Sensitive species were functionally unique and associated with complex habitats and structures of allochthonous origin found in forested watersheds. Positive threshold responses of species were less common and generally occurred at >70% deforestation and >10 years after impact. Findings were similar at the community level for both taxonomic and functional analyses. Because most negative threshold responses occurred at low levels of deforestation and soon after impact, even minimal change is expected to negatively affect biodiversity. Delayed positive threshold responses to extreme deforestation by a few species do not offset the loss of sensitive taxa and likely contribute to biotic homogenization. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Geospatial analytics to evaluate point-of-dispensing sites for mass immunizations in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania.

PubMed

Everett, Kibri H; Potter, Margaret A; Wheaton, William D; Gleason, Sherrianne M; Brown, Shawn T; Lee, Bruce Y

2013-01-01

Public health agencies use mass immunization locations to quickly administer vaccines to protect a population against an epidemic. The selection of such locations is frequently determined by available staffing levels and in some places, not all potential sites can be opened, often because of a lack of resources. Public health agencies need assistance in determining which n sites are the prime ones to open given available staff to minimize travel time and travel distance for those in the population who need to get to a site to receive treatment. Employ geospatial analytical methods to identify the prime n locations from a predetermined set of potential locations (eg, schools) and determine which locations may not be able to achieve the throughput necessary to reach the herd immunity threshold based on varying R0 values. Spatial location-allocation algorithms were used to select the ideal n mass vaccination locations. Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, served as the study area. The most favorable sites were selected and the number of individuals required to be vaccinated to achieve the herd immunity threshold for a given R0, ranging from 1.5 to 7, was determined. Locations that did not meet the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention throughput recommendation for smallpox were identified. At R0 = 1.5, all mass immunization locations met the required throughput to achieve the herd immunity threshold within 5 days. As R0s increased from 2 to 7, an increasing number of sites were inadequate to meet throughput requirements. Identifying the top n sites and categorizing those with throughput challenges allows health departments to adjust staffing, shift length, or the number of sites. This method has the potential to be expanded to select immunization locations under a number of additional scenarios.

Is bone tenderness, as measured by manual algometry, associated with vitamin D deficiency?

PubMed Central

Dresser, Jocelyn; MacIntyre, Mike; Chisholm, Brittney; Lawson, G.E.

2014-01-01

Objective: To explore the relationship between serum 25-hydroxycholecalciferol (25[OH]D3) and pressure-pain thresholds, as measured by algometer, in advance of a main study to determine whether PPT is a potentially cost-effective proxy measure of 25[OH]D3 status in the general population. Methods: The cross-sectional pilot study involved a convenience sample of twenty-two subjects (10 males, 12 females), aged 18 to 67 years. All subjects consented to three trials of pressure-pain threshold readings on both tibiae and the manubrium. Serum 25[OH]D3 levels were determined from blood samples drawn post-algometry. Results: The average pressure pain thresholds were 14.92 (±6.03), 15.07(±6.07), 11.10 (±6.68) for the left and right tibia and sternum, respectively. The stability between the measurements was very high with the interclass correlation coefficient (95% CI) calculated as 0.94 (0.62–1.00), 0.9 (0.81–1.00), 0.96(0.93–1.00). The Pearson correlation coefficients were 0.03 for the left tibia, 0.17 for the right tibia and 0.20 for the sternum, J Dresser, M MacIntyre, B Chisholm, GE Lawson showing a negligible correlation for the left and right tibia, but a low positive correlation for the sternum. Conclusion: We did not find preliminary evidence of a strong or otherwise clinically meaningful correlation between bone tenderness and manual algometry in this pilot study. Only a weak linear relationship between PPT in the sternum and serum 25[OH]D3 concentrations was found. Replication of this study is warranted in larger and more representative study populations of interest. Discussion on a number of feasibility issues is provided to inform those future studies. PMID:25202161

Is bone tenderness, as measured by manual algometry, associated with vitamin D deficiency?

PubMed

Dresser, Jocelyn; MacIntyre, Mike; Chisholm, Brittney; Lawson, G E

2014-09-01

To explore the relationship between serum 25-hydroxycholecalciferol (25[OH]D3) and pressure-pain thresholds, as measured by algometer, in advance of a main study to determine whether PPT is a potentially cost-effective proxy measure of 25[OH]D3 status in the general population. The cross-sectional pilot study involved a convenience sample of twenty-two subjects (10 males, 12 females), aged 18 to 67 years. All subjects consented to three trials of pressure-pain threshold readings on both tibiae and the manubrium. Serum 25[OH]D3 levels were determined from blood samples drawn post-algometry. The average pressure pain thresholds were 14.92 (±6.03), 15.07(±6.07), 11.10 (±6.68) for the left and right tibia and sternum, respectively. The stability between the measurements was very high with the interclass correlation coefficient (95% CI) calculated as 0.94 (0.62-1.00), 0.9 (0.81-1.00), 0.96(0.93-1.00). The Pearson correlation coefficients were 0.03 for the left tibia, 0.17 for the right tibia and 0.20 for the sternum, J Dresser, M MacIntyre, B Chisholm, GE Lawson showing a negligible correlation for the left and right tibia, but a low positive correlation for the sternum. We did not find preliminary evidence of a strong or otherwise clinically meaningful correlation between bone tenderness and manual algometry in this pilot study. Only a weak linear relationship between PPT in the sternum and serum 25[OH]D3 concentrations was found. Replication of this study is warranted in larger and more representative study populations of interest. Discussion on a number of feasibility issues is provided to inform those future studies.

The range of minimum provoking doses in hazelnut-allergic patients as determined by double-blind, placebo-controlled food challenges.

PubMed

Wensing, M; Penninks, A H; Hefle, S L; Akkerdaas, J H; van Ree, R; Koppelman, S J; Bruijnzeel-Koomen, C A F M; Knulst, A C

2002-12-01

The risk for allergic reactions depends on the sensitivity of individuals and the quantities of offending food ingested. The sensitivity varies among allergic individuals, as does the threshold dose of a food allergen capable of inducing an allergic reaction. This study aimed at determining the distribution of minimum provoking doses of hazelnut in a hazelnut-allergic population. Thirty-one patients with a history of hazelnut-related allergic symptoms, a positive skin prick test to hazelnut and/or an elevated specific IgE level, were included. Double-blind, placebo-controlled food challenges (DBPCFC) were performed with seven increasing doses of dried hazelnut (1 mg to 1 g hazelnut protein) randomly interspersed with seven placebo doses. Twenty-nine patients had a positive challenge. Itching of the oral cavity and/or lips was the first symptom in all cases. Additional gastrointestinal symptoms were reported in five patients and difficulty in swallowing in one patient. Lip swelling was observed in two patients, followed by generalized urticaria in one of these. Threshold doses for eliciting subjective reactions varied from a dose of 1 mg up to 100 mg hazelnut protein (equivalent to 6.4-640 mg hazelnut meal). Extrapolation of the dose-response curve showed that 50% of our hazelnut-allergic population will suffer from an allergic reaction after ingestion of 6 mg (95% CI, 2-11 mg) of hazelnut protein. Objective symptoms were observed in two patients after 1 and 1,000 mg, respectively. DBPCFCs demonstrated threshold doses in half of the hazelnut-allergic patients similar to doses previously described to be hidden in consumer products. This stresses the need for careful labelling and strategies to prevent and detect contamination of food products with hazelnut residues.

Estimating the need for dental sedation: evaluating the threshold of the IOSN tool in an adult population.

PubMed

Liu, T; Pretty, I A; Goodwin, M

2013-04-01

The aim of this study was, through a service evaluation, to assess the use of the IOSN tool in determining whether threshold values were appropriate for identification of IV sedation and general anaesthetic (GA) cases from a referral population. A total of 105 patients were taken from a dental minor oral surgery referral service within a north west primary care trust over the course of six months. The IOSN tool was completed to assess: treatment complexity, medical and behavioural factors and patient anxiety levels. Each patient was then followed through to treatment. The type of sedation modality they received was compared to their IOSN score previously calculated and these results evaluated. The findings suggest that 94% of patients were treated within primary care by the MOS service, of which 58% received local anaesthetic (LA) alone and 42% were treated by LA with IV sedation. There was a general marked trend as the IOSN score increased so did the treatment modality from LA, through sedation to GA. Logistic regression using the components of the IOSN tool to predict sedation use indicated the IOSN predictors distinguished between those who required sedation and those who didn't (chi-square = 56.411, p <0.0001, df = 3) with treatment complexity (Exp B = 10.836, p <0.0001) and anxiety (Exp B = 4.319, p <0.0001) shown to be significant factors in determining sedation need. The data collected have shown that there is a positive relationship between the IOSN score and the type of treatment modality the patient received, suggesting that the threshold values are correctly set. It is concluded that IOSN tool is a useful means of aiding the clinician in both assessing and referring patients for that sedation need.

Randomised field trial to evaluate serological response after foot-and-mouth disease vaccination in Turkey.

PubMed

Knight-Jones, T J D; Bulut, A N; Gubbins, S; Stärk, K D C; Pfeiffer, D U; Sumption, K J; Paton, D J

2015-02-04

Despite years of biannual mass vaccination of cattle, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) remains uncontrolled in Anatolian Turkey. To evaluate protection after mass vaccination we measured post-vaccination antibodies in a cohort of cattle (serotypes O, A and Asia-1). To obtain results reflecting typical field protection, participants were randomly sampled from across Central and Western Turkey after routine vaccination. Giving two-doses one month apart is recommended when cattle are first vaccinated against FMD. However, due to cost and logistics, this is not routinely performed in Turkey, and elsewhere. Nested within the cohort, we conducted a randomised trial comparing post-vaccination antibodies after a single-dose versus a two-dose primary vaccination course. Four to five months after vaccination, only a third of single-vaccinated cattle had antibody levels above a threshold associated with protection. A third never reached this threshold, even at peak response one month after vaccination. It was not until animals had received three vaccine doses in their lifetime, vaccinating every six months, that most (64% to 86% depending on serotype) maintained antibody levels above this threshold. By this time cattle would be >20 months old with almost half the population below this age. Consequently, many vaccinated animals will be unprotected for much of the year. Compared to a single-dose, a primary vaccination course of two-doses greatly improved the level and duration of immunity. We concluded that the FMD vaccination programme in Anatolian Turkey did not produce the high levels of immunity required. Higher potency vaccines are now used throughout Turkey, with a two-dose primary course in certain areas. Monitoring post-vaccination serology is an important component of evaluation for FMD vaccination programmes. However, consideration must be given to which antigens are present in the test, the vaccine and the field virus. Differences between these antigens affect the relationship between antibody titre and protection. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of nuclear chromatin using grayscale intensity and thresholded percentage area in liquid-based cervical cytology.

PubMed

Lee, Hyekyung; Han, Myungein; Yoo, Taejo; Jung, Chanho; Son, Hyun-Jin; Cho, Migyung

2018-05-01

Development of computerized image analysis techniques has opened up the possibility for the quantitative analysis of nuclear chromatin in pathology. We hypothesized that the features extracted from digital images could be used to determine specific cytomorphological findings for nuclear chromatin that may be applicable for establishing a medical diagnosis. Three parameters were evaluated from nuclear chromatin images obtained from the liquid-based cervical cytology samples of patients with biopsy-proven high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HGSIL), and compared between non-neoplastic squamous epithelia and dysplastic epithelia groups: (1) standard deviation (SD) of the grayscale intensity; (2) difference between the maximum and minimum grayscale intensity (M-M); and (3) thresholded area percentage. Each parameter was evaluated at the mean, mean-1SD, and mean-2SD thresholding intensity levels. Between the mean and mean-1SD levels, the thresholded nuclear chromatin pattern was most similar to the chromatin granularity of the unthresholded grayscale images. The SD of the gray intensity and the thresholded area percentage differed significantly between the non-neoplastic squamous epithelia and dysplastic epithelia of HGSIL images at all three thresholding intensity levels (mean, mean-1SD, and mean-2SD). However, the M-M significantly differed between the two sample types for only two of the thresholding intensity levels (mean-1SD and mean-2SD). The digital parameters SD and M-M of the grayscale intensity, along with the thresholded area percentage could be useful in automated cytological evaluations. Further studies are needed to identify more valuable parameters for clinical application. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prediction of pKa Values for Neutral and Basic Drugs based on Hybrid Artificial Intelligence Methods.

PubMed

Li, Mengshan; Zhang, Huaijing; Chen, Bingsheng; Wu, Yan; Guan, Lixin

2018-03-05

The pKa value of drugs is an important parameter in drug design and pharmacology. In this paper, an improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm was proposed based on the population entropy diversity. In the improved algorithm, when the population entropy was higher than the set maximum threshold, the convergence strategy was adopted; when the population entropy was lower than the set minimum threshold the divergence strategy was adopted; when the population entropy was between the maximum and minimum threshold, the self-adaptive adjustment strategy was maintained. The improved PSO algorithm was applied in the training of radial basis function artificial neural network (RBF ANN) model and the selection of molecular descriptors. A quantitative structure-activity relationship model based on RBF ANN trained by the improved PSO algorithm was proposed to predict the pKa values of 74 kinds of neutral and basic drugs and then validated by another database containing 20 molecules. The validation results showed that the model had a good prediction performance. The absolute average relative error, root mean square error, and squared correlation coefficient were 0.3105, 0.0411, and 0.9685, respectively. The model can be used as a reference for exploring other quantitative structure-activity relationships.

Test-retest agreement and reliability of quantitative sensory testing 1 year after breast cancer surgery.

PubMed

Andersen, Kenneth Geving; Kehlet, Henrik; Aasvang, Eske Kvanner

2015-05-01

Quantitative sensory testing (QST) is used to assess sensory dysfunction and nerve damage by examining psychophysical responses to controlled, graded stimuli such as mechanical and thermal detection and pain thresholds. In the breast cancer population, 4 studies have used QST to examine persistent pain after breast cancer treatment, suggesting neuropathic pain being a prominent pain mechanism. However, the agreement and reliability of QST has not been described in the postsurgical breast cancer population, hindering exact interpretation of QST studies in this population. The aim of the present study was to assess test-retest properties of QST after breast cancer surgery. A total of 32 patients recruited from a larger ongoing prospective trial were examined with QST 12 months after breast cancer surgery and reexamined a week later. A standardized QST protocol was used, including sensory mapping for mechanical, warmth and cold areas of sensory dysfunction, mechanical thresholds using monofilaments and pin-prick, thermal thresholds including warmth and cold detection thresholds and heat pain threshold, with bilateral examination. Agreement and reliability were assessed by Bland-Altman plots, descriptive statistics, coefficients of variance, and intraclass correlation. Bland-Altman plots showed high variation on the surgical side. Intraclass coefficients ranged from 0.356 to 0.847 (moderate to substantial reliability). Between-patient variation was generally higher (0.9 to 14.5 SD) than within-patient variation (0.23 to 3.55 SD). There were no significant differences between pain and pain-free patients. The individual test-retest variability was higher on the operated side compared with the nonoperated side. The QST protocol reliability allows for group-to-group comparison of sensory function, but less so for individual follow-up after breast cancer surgery.

Evaluation of an operational malaria outbreak identification and response system in Mpumalanga Province, South Africa.

PubMed

Coleman, Marlize; Coleman, Michael; Mabuza, Aaron M; Kok, Gerdalize; Coetzee, Maureen; Durrheim, David N

2008-04-27

To evaluate the performance of a novel malaria outbreak identification system in the epidemic prone rural area of Mpumalanga Province, South Africa, for timely identification of malaria outbreaks and guiding integrated public health responses. Using five years of historical notification data, two binomial thresholds were determined for each primary health care facility in the highest malaria risk area of Mpumalanga province. Whenever the thresholds were exceeded at health facility level (tier 1), primary health care staff notified the malaria control programme, which then confirmed adequate stocks of malaria treatment to manage potential increased cases. The cases were followed up at household level to verify the likely source of infection. The binomial thresholds were reviewed at village/town level (tier 2) to determine whether additional response measures were required. In addition, an automated electronic outbreak identification system at town/village level (tier 2) was integrated into the case notification database (tier 3) to ensure that unexpected increases in case notification were not missed.The performance of these binomial outbreak thresholds was evaluated against other currently recommended thresholds using retrospective data. The acceptability of the system at primary health care level was evaluated through structured interviews with health facility staff. Eighty four percent of health facilities reported outbreaks within 24 hours (n = 95), 92% (n = 104) within 48 hours and 100% (n = 113) within 72 hours. Appropriate response to all malaria outbreaks (n = 113, tier 1, n = 46, tier 2) were achieved within 24 hours. The system was positively viewed by all health facility staff. When compared to other epidemiological systems for a specified 12 month outbreak season (June 2003 to July 2004) the binomial exact thresholds produced one false weekly outbreak, the C-sum 12 weekly outbreaks and the mean + 2 SD nine false weekly outbreaks. Exceeding the binomial level 1 threshold triggered an alert four weeks prior to an outbreak, but exceeding the binomial level 2 threshold identified an outbreak as it occurred. The malaria outbreak surveillance system using binomial thresholds achieved its primary goal of identifying outbreaks early facilitating appropriate local public health responses aimed at averting a possible large-scale epidemic in a low, and unstable, malaria transmission setting.

Americans hear as well or better today compared with 40 years ago: hearing threshold levels in the unscreened adult population of the United States, 1959-1962 and 1999-2004.

PubMed

Hoffman, Howard J; Dobie, Robert A; Ko, Chia-Wen; Themann, Christa L; Murphy, William J

2010-12-01

(1) To present hearing threshold data from a recent nationally representative survey in the United States (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999-2004) in a distributional format that might be appropriate to replace Annex B in international (ISO-1999) and national (ANSI S3.44) standards and (2) to compare these recent data with older survey data (National Health Examination Survey I, 1959-1962) on which the current Annex B is based. Better-ear threshold distributions (selected percentiles and their confidence intervals) were estimated using linear interpolation. The 95% confidence intervals for the medians for the two surveys were compared graphically for each of the four age groups and for both men and women. In addition, we calculated odds ratios comparing the prevalences of better-ear hearing impairment (thresholds > 25 dB HL) between the two surveys, for 500, 1000, 2000, and 4000 Hz, and for their four-frequency average. Across age and sex groups, median thresholds were lower (better) in the 1999-2004 survey at 500, 3000, 4000, and 6000 Hz (8000 Hz was not tested in the 1959-1962 survey). For both men and women, the prevalence of hearing impairment was significantly lower in 1999-2004 at 500, 2000, and 4000 Hz, but not at 1000 Hz. For men and women of a specific age, high-frequency hearing thresholds were lower (better) in 1999-2004 than in 1959-1962. The prevalences of hearing impairment were also lower in the recent survey. Differences seen at 500 Hz may be attributable at least in part to changes in standards for ambient noise in audiometry. The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999-2004 distributions are offered as a possible replacement for Annex B in ISO-1999 and ANSI S3.44.

Discrimination of rippled-spectrum patterns in noise: A manifestation of compressive nonlinearity

PubMed Central

Milekhina, Olga N.; Nechaev, Dmitry I.; Klishin, Vladimir O.

2017-01-01

In normal-hearing listeners, rippled-spectrum discrimination was psychophysically investigated in both silence and with a simultaneous masker background using the following two paradigms: measuring the ripple density resolution with the phase-reversal test and measuring the ripple-shift threshold with the ripple-shift test. The 0.5-oct wide signal was centered on 2 kHz, the signal levels were 50 and 80 dB SPL, and the masker levels varied from 30 to 100 dB SPL. The baseline ripple density resolutions were 8.7 oct-1 and 8.6 oct-1 for the 50-dB and 80-dB signals, respectively. The baseline ripple shift thresholds were 0.015 oct and 0.018 oct for the 50-dB and 80-dB signals, respectively. The maskers were 0.5-oct noises centered on 2 kHz (on-frequency) or 0.75 to 1.25 oct below the signal (off-frequency maskers). The effects of the maskers were as follows: (i) both on- and low-frequency maskers reduced the ripple density resolution and increased the ripple shift thresholds, (ii) the masker levels at threshold (the ripple density resolution decrease down to 3 oct–1 or ripple shift threshold increased up to 0.1 oct) increased with increasing frequency spacing between the signal and masker, (iii) the masker levels at threshold were higher for the 80-dB signal than for the 50-dB signal, and (iv) the difference between the masker levels at threshold for the 50-dB and 80-dB signals decreased with increasing frequency spacing between the masker and signal. Within the 30-dB (from 50 to 80 dB SPL) signal level, the growth of the masker level at threshold was 27.8 dB for the on-frequency masker and 9 dB for the low-frequency masker. It is assumed that the difference between the on- and low-frequency masking of the rippled-spectrum discrimination reflects the cochlear compressive non-linearity. With this assumption, the compression was 0.3 dB/dB. PMID:28346538

Baseline blood Pb levels of black-necked stilts on the upper Texas coast

USGS Publications Warehouse

Riecke, Thomas V.; Conway, Warren C.; Haukos, David A.; Moon, Jena A.; Comer, Christopher E.

2015-01-01

There are no known biological requirements for lead (Pb), and elevated Pb levels in birds can cause a variety of sub-lethal effects and mortality. Historic and current levels of Pb in mottled ducks (Anas fulvigula) suggest that environmental sources of Pb remain available on the upper Texas coast. Because of potential risks of Pb exposure among coexisting marsh birds, black-necked stilt (Himantopus mexicanus) blood Pb concentrations were measured during the breeding season. Almost 80 % (n = 120) of 152 sampled stilts exceeded the background threshold (>20 μg/dL) for Pb exposure. However, blood Pb concentrations did not vary by age or gender, and toxic or potentially lethal concentrations were rare (<5 %). Consistent, low-level blood Pb concentrations of black-necked stilts in this study suggest the presence of readily bioavailable sources of Pb, although potential impacts on local stilt populations remain unclear.

Impact of Rabies Vaccination History on Attainment of an Adequate Antibody Titre Among Dogs Tested for International Travel Certification, Israel - 2010-2014.

PubMed

Yakobson, B; Taylor, N; Dveres, N; Rotblat, S; Spero, Ż; Lankau, E W; Maki, J

2017-06-01

Rabies is endemic in wildlife or domestic carnivore populations globally. Infection of domestic dogs is of particular concern in many areas. In regions where domestic animals are at risk of exposure to rabies virus, dogs should be routinely vaccinated against rabies to protect both pet and human populations. Many countries require demonstration of an adequate level of serum rabies neutralizing antibodies to permit entry of dogs during international travel. We analysed rabies titres of dogs seeking travel certification in Israel to assess demographic and vaccine history factors associated with antibody titres below the acceptable threshold for travel certification. Having received only one previous rabies vaccination and a longer duration since the most recent vaccination was received were primary risk factors for not achieving an adequate rabies virus neutralizing antibody titre for travel certification. These risk factors had stronger effects in younger animals, but were consistent for dogs of all ages. In particular, these findings reiterate the importance of administering at least two rabies vaccinations (the primo vaccination and subsequent booster) to ensure population-level protection against rabies in dogs globally. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Analysis of the physical activity patterns of a rural Afrikaner population in the south-western Cape.

PubMed

Noakes, T D; Benade, A J; Jooste, P L; van Zyl, F

1986-06-21

To determine whether low levels of energy expenditure at work or in leisure-time might contribute to the high prevalence of coronary heart disease among white rural Afrikaners, 7188 whites of both sexes in three rural communities were questioned about their physical activities. From these data, the percentage of the population at different ages participating in sedentary, moderate or vigorous activity at work or light, moderate or vigorous leisure-time activity was calculated. Total energy expenditure at work or in leisure-time was also calculated. At all ages, less than 1% of both men and women performed workday activities requiring high energy output. Beginning after the age of 24 years, there was a dramatic fall in the percentage of both men and women participating in either moderate or vigorous leisure-time physical activity. After the age of 44 years, less than 26% of men and 16% of women exceeded the coronary 'protective threshold' of 8400 kJ leisure-time energy expenditure per week. Thus the population studied is characterized by very low levels of energy expenditure particularly at work, but also during leisure-time.

The potential impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis for HIV prevention among men who have sex with men and transwomen in Lima, Peru: a mathematical modelling study.

PubMed

Gomez, Gabriela B; Borquez, Annick; Caceres, Carlos F; Segura, Eddy R; Grant, Robert M; Garnett, Geoff P; Hallett, Timothy B

2012-01-01

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), the use of antiretroviral drugs by uninfected individuals to prevent HIV infection, has demonstrated effectiveness in preventing acquisition in a high-risk population of men who have sex with men (MSM). Consequently, there is a need to understand if and how PrEP can be used cost-effectively to prevent HIV infection in such populations. We developed a mathematical model representing the HIV epidemic among MSM and transwomen (male-to-female transgender individuals) in Lima, Peru, as a test case. PrEP effectiveness in the model is assumed to result from the combination of a "conditional efficacy" parameter and an adherence parameter. Annual operating costs from a health provider perspective were based on the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention interim guidelines for PrEP use. The model was used to investigate the population-level impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of PrEP under a range of implementation scenarios. The epidemiological impact of PrEP is largely driven by programme characteristics. For a modest PrEP coverage of 5%, over 8% of infections could be averted in a programme prioritising those at higher risk and attaining the adherence levels of the Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Initiative study. Across all scenarios, the highest estimated cost per disability-adjusted life year averted (uniform strategy for a coverage level of 20%, US$1,036-US$4,254) is below the World Health Organization recommended threshold for cost-effective interventions, while only certain optimistic scenarios (low coverage of 5% and some or high prioritisation) are likely to be cost-effective using the World Bank threshold. The impact of PrEP is reduced if those on PrEP decrease condom use, but only extreme behaviour changes among non-adherers (over 80% reduction in condom use) and a low PrEP conditional efficacy (40%) would adversely impact the epidemic. However, PrEP will not arrest HIV transmission in isolation because of its incomplete effectiveness and dependence on adherence, and because the high cost of programmes limits the coverage levels that could potentially be attained. A strategic PrEP intervention could be a cost-effective addition to existing HIV prevention strategies for MSM populations. However, despite being cost-effective, a substantial expenditure would be required to generate significant reductions in incidence. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

The Potential Impact of Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis for HIV Prevention among Men Who Have Sex with Men and Transwomen in Lima, Peru: A Mathematical Modelling Study

PubMed Central

Caceres, Carlos F.; Segura, Eddy R.; Grant, Robert M.; Garnett, Geoff P.; Hallett, Timothy B.

2012-01-01

Background HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), the use of antiretroviral drugs by uninfected individuals to prevent HIV infection, has demonstrated effectiveness in preventing acquisition in a high-risk population of men who have sex with men (MSM). Consequently, there is a need to understand if and how PrEP can be used cost-effectively to prevent HIV infection in such populations. Methods and Findings We developed a mathematical model representing the HIV epidemic among MSM and transwomen (male-to-female transgender individuals) in Lima, Peru, as a test case. PrEP effectiveness in the model is assumed to result from the combination of a “conditional efficacy” parameter and an adherence parameter. Annual operating costs from a health provider perspective were based on the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention interim guidelines for PrEP use. The model was used to investigate the population-level impact, cost, and cost-effectiveness of PrEP under a range of implementation scenarios. The epidemiological impact of PrEP is largely driven by programme characteristics. For a modest PrEP coverage of 5%, over 8% of infections could be averted in a programme prioritising those at higher risk and attaining the adherence levels of the Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Initiative study. Across all scenarios, the highest estimated cost per disability-adjusted life year averted (uniform strategy for a coverage level of 20%, US$1,036–US$4,254) is below the World Health Organization recommended threshold for cost-effective interventions, while only certain optimistic scenarios (low coverage of 5% and some or high prioritisation) are likely to be cost-effective using the World Bank threshold. The impact of PrEP is reduced if those on PrEP decrease condom use, but only extreme behaviour changes among non-adherers (over 80% reduction in condom use) and a low PrEP conditional efficacy (40%) would adversely impact the epidemic. However, PrEP will not arrest HIV transmission in isolation because of its incomplete effectiveness and dependence on adherence, and because the high cost of programmes limits the coverage levels that could potentially be attained. Conclusions A strategic PrEP intervention could be a cost-effective addition to existing HIV prevention strategies for MSM populations. However, despite being cost-effective, a substantial expenditure would be required to generate significant reductions in incidence. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:23055836

(t, n) Threshold d-Level Quantum Secret Sharing.

PubMed

Song, Xiu-Li; Liu, Yan-Bing; Deng, Hong-Yao; Xiao, Yong-Gang

2017-07-25

Most of Quantum Secret Sharing(QSS) are (n, n) threshold 2-level schemes, in which the 2-level secret cannot be reconstructed until all n shares are collected. In this paper, we propose a (t, n) threshold d-level QSS scheme, in which the d-level secret can be reconstructed only if at least t shares are collected. Compared with (n, n) threshold 2-level QSS, the proposed QSS provides better universality, flexibility, and practicability. Moreover, in this scheme, any one of the participants does not know the other participants' shares, even the trusted reconstructor Bob 1 is no exception. The transformation of the particles includes some simple operations such as d-level CNOT, Quantum Fourier Transform(QFT), Inverse Quantum Fourier Transform(IQFT), and generalized Pauli operator. The transformed particles need not to be transmitted from one participant to another in the quantum channel. Security analysis shows that the proposed scheme can resist intercept-resend attack, entangle-measure attack, collusion attack, and forgery attack. Performance comparison shows that it has lower computation and communication costs than other similar schemes when 2 < t < n - 1.

Quinine reduces the dynamic range of the human auditory system.

PubMed

Berninger, E; Karlsson, K K; Alván, G

1998-01-01

The aim of the study was to evaluate and quantify quinine-induced changes in the human auditory dynamic range, as a model for cochlear hearing loss. Six otologically normal volunteers (21-40 years old) received quinine hydrochloride (15 mg/kg body weight) in two identical oral doses and one intravenous infusion. Refined hearing tests were performed monaurally at threshold, at moderate hearing levels and at high hearing levels. Quinine induced a maximal pure-tone threshold shift of 23 dB (1000-2000 Hz). The increase in the psychoacoustical click threshold agreed with an increase in the detection threshold of click-evoked otoacoustic emissions. The change in the stimulus-response relationship of the emissions reflected recruitment. The self-attained most comfortable speech level and the acoustic stapedius reflex thresholds were not affected by quinine administration. Quinine is a useful model substance for reversibly inducing complete loudness recruitment in humans as it acts specifically on some parts of the hearing function. Its mechanism of action on the molecular level is likely to reveal further information on the physiology of hearing.

Impact of Heterogeneity in Sexual Behavior on Effectiveness in Reducing HIV Transmission with Test-and-Treat Strategy.

PubMed

Rozhnova, Ganna; van der Loeff, Maarten F Schim; Heijne, Janneke C M; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E

2016-08-01

The WHO's early-release guideline for antiretroviral treatment (ART) of HIV infection based on a recent trial conducted in 34 countries recommends starting treatment immediately upon an HIV diagnosis. Therefore, the test-and-treat strategy may become more widely used in an effort to scale up HIV treatment and curb further transmission. Here we examine behavioural determinants of HIV transmission and how heterogeneity in sexual behaviour influences the outcomes of this strategy. Using a deterministic model, we perform a systematic investigation into the effects of various mixing patterns in a population of men who have sex with men (MSM), stratified by partner change rates, on the elimination threshold and endemic HIV prevalence. We find that both the level of overdispersion in the distribution of the number of sexual partners and mixing between population subgroups have a large influence on endemic prevalence before introduction of ART and on possible long term effectiveness of ART. Increasing heterogeneity in risk behavior may lead to lower endemic prevalence levels, but requires higher coverage levels of ART for elimination. Elimination is only feasible for populations with a rather low degree of assortativeness of mixing and requires treatment coverage of almost 80% if rates of testing and treatment uptake by all population subgroups are equal. In this case, for fully assortative mixing and 80% coverage endemic prevalence is reduced by 57%. In the presence of heterogeneity in ART uptake, elimination is easier to achieve when the subpopulation with highest risk behavior is tested and treated more often than the rest of the population, and vice versa when it is less. The developed framework can be used to extract information on behavioral heterogeneity from existing data which is otherwise hard to determine from population surveys.

Impact of Heterogeneity in Sexual Behavior on Effectiveness in Reducing HIV Transmission with Test-and-Treat Strategy

PubMed Central

Rozhnova, Ganna; van der Loeff, Maarten F. Schim; Heijne, Janneke C. M.; Kretzschmar, Mirjam E.

2016-01-01

The WHO’s early-release guideline for antiretroviral treatment (ART) of HIV infection based on a recent trial conducted in 34 countries recommends starting treatment immediately upon an HIV diagnosis. Therefore, the test-and-treat strategy may become more widely used in an effort to scale up HIV treatment and curb further transmission. Here we examine behavioural determinants of HIV transmission and how heterogeneity in sexual behaviour influences the outcomes of this strategy. Using a deterministic model, we perform a systematic investigation into the effects of various mixing patterns in a population of men who have sex with men (MSM), stratified by partner change rates, on the elimination threshold and endemic HIV prevalence. We find that both the level of overdispersion in the distribution of the number of sexual partners and mixing between population subgroups have a large influence on endemic prevalence before introduction of ART and on possible long term effectiveness of ART. Increasing heterogeneity in risk behavior may lead to lower endemic prevalence levels, but requires higher coverage levels of ART for elimination. Elimination is only feasible for populations with a rather low degree of assortativeness of mixing and requires treatment coverage of almost 80% if rates of testing and treatment uptake by all population subgroups are equal. In this case, for fully assortative mixing and 80% coverage endemic prevalence is reduced by 57%. In the presence of heterogeneity in ART uptake, elimination is easier to achieve when the subpopulation with highest risk behavior is tested and treated more often than the rest of the population, and vice versa when it is less. The developed framework can be used to extract information on behavioral heterogeneity from existing data which is otherwise hard to determine from population surveys. PMID:27479074

Use of Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) with High Throughput Exposure Predictions as a Risk-Based Screening Approach to Prioritize More Than Seven Thousand Chemicals (ASCCT)

EPA Science Inventory

Here, we present results of an approach for risk-based prioritization using the Threshold of Toxicological Concern (TTC) combined with high-throughput exposure (HTE) modelling. We started with 7968 chemicals with calculated population median oral daily intakes characterized by an...

A framework for developing objective and measurable recovery criteria for threatened and endangered species.

PubMed

Himes Boor, Gina K

2014-02-01

For species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Marine Fisheries Service are tasked with writing recovery plans that include "objective, measurable criteria" that define when a species is no longer at risk of extinction, but neither the act itself nor agency guidelines provide an explicit definition of objective, measurable criteria. Past reviews of recovery plans, including one published in 2012, show that many criteria lack quantitative metrics with clear biological rationale and are not meeting the measureable and objective mandate. I reviewed how objective, measureable criteria have been defined implicitly and explicitly in peer-reviewed literature, the ESA, other U.S. statutes, and legal decisions. Based on a synthesis of these sources, I propose the following 6 standards be used as minimum requirements for objective, measurable criteria: contain a quantitative threshold with calculable units, stipulate a timeframe over which they must be met, explicitly define the spatial extent or population to which they apply, specify a sampling procedure that includes sample size, specify a statistical significance level, and include justification by providing scientific evidence that the criteria define a species whose extinction risk has been reduced to the desired level. To meet these 6 standards, I suggest that recovery plans be explicitly guided by and organized around a population viability modeling framework even if data or agency resources are too limited to complete a viability model. When data and resources are available, recovery criteria can be developed from the population viability model results, but when data and resources are insufficient for model implementation, extinction risk thresholds can be used as criteria. A recovery-planning approach centered on viability modeling will also yield appropriately focused data-acquisition and monitoring plans and will facilitate a seamless transition from recovery planning to delisting. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Infection Density Dynamics of the Citrus Greening Bacterium “Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus” in Field Populations of the Psyllid Diaphorina citri and Its Relevance to the Efficiency of Pathogen Transmission to Citrus Plants

PubMed Central

Ukuda-Hosokawa, Rie; Sadoyama, Yasutsune; Kishaba, Misaki; Kuriwada, Takashi; Anbutsu, Hisashi

2015-01-01

Huanglongbing, or citrus greening, is a devastating disease of citrus plants recently spreading worldwide, which is caused by an uncultivable bacterial pathogen, “Candidatus Liberibacter asiaticus,” and vectored by a phloem-sucking insect, Diaphorina citri. We investigated the infection density dynamics of “Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus” in field populations of D. citri with experiments using field-collected insects to address how “Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus” infection density in the vector insect is relevant to pathogen transmission to citrus plants. Of 500 insects continuously collected from “Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus”-infected citrus trees with pathological symptoms in the spring and autumn of 2009, 497 (99.4%) were “Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus” positive. The infections were systemic across head-thorax and abdomen, ranging from 103 to 107 bacteria per insect. In spring, the infection densities were low in March, at ∼103 bacteria per insect, increasing up to 106 to 107 bacteria per insect in April and May, and decreasing to 105 to 106 bacteria per insect in late May, whereas the infection densities were constantly ∼106 to 107 bacteria per insect in autumn. Statistical analysis suggested that several factors, such as insect sex, host trees, and collection dates, may be correlated with “Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus” infection densities in field D. citri populations. Inoculation experiments with citrus seedlings using field-collected “Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus”-infected insects suggested that (i) “Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus”-transmitting insects tend to exhibit higher infection densities than do nontransmitting insects, (ii) a threshold level (∼106 bacteria per insect) of “Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus” density in D. citri is required for successful transmission to citrus plants, and (iii) D. citri attaining the threshold infection level transmits “Ca. Liberibacter asiaticus” to citrus plants in a stochastic manner. These findings provide valuable insights into understanding, predicting, and controlling this notorious citrus pathogen. PMID:25819961

A study of the threshold method utilizing raingage data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Short, David A.; Wolff, David B.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Atlas, David

1993-01-01

The threshold method for estimation of area-average rain rate relies on determination of the fractional area where rain rate exceeds a preset level of intensity. Previous studies have shown that the optimal threshold level depends on the climatological rain-rate distribution (RRD). It has also been noted, however, that the climatological RRD may be composed of an aggregate of distributions, one for each of several distinctly different synoptic conditions, each having its own optimal threshold. In this study, the impact of RRD variations on the threshold method is shown in an analysis of 1-min rainrate data from a network of tipping-bucket gauges in Darwin, Australia. Data are analyzed for two distinct regimes: the premonsoon environment, having isolated intense thunderstorms, and the active monsoon rains, having organized convective cell clusters that generate large areas of stratiform rain. It is found that a threshold of 10 mm/h results in the same threshold coefficient for both regimes, suggesting an alternative definition of optimal threshold as that which is least sensitive to distribution variations. The observed behavior of the threshold coefficient is well simulated by assumption of lognormal distributions with different scale parameters and same shape parameters.

Size matters: concurrency and the epidemic potential of HIV in small networks.

PubMed

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme; Morris, Martina

2012-01-01

Generalized heterosexual epidemics are responsible for the largest share of the global burden of HIV. These occur in populations that do not have high rates of partner acquisition, and research suggests that a pattern of fewer, but concurrent, partnerships may be the mechanism that provides the connectivity necessary for sustained transmission. We examine how network size affects the impact of concurrency on network connectivity. We use a stochastic network model to generate a sample of networks, varying the size of the network and the level of concurrency, and compare the largest components for each scenario to the asymptotic expected values. While the threshold for the growth of a giant component does not change, the transition is more gradual in the smaller networks. As a result, low levels of concurrency generate more connectivity in small networks. Generalized HIV epidemics are by definition those that spread to a larger fraction of the population, but the mechanism may rely in part on the dynamics of transmission in a set of linked small networks. Examples include rural populations in sub-Saharan Africa and segregated minority populations in the US, where the effective size of the sexual network may well be in the hundreds, rather than thousands. Connectivity emerges at lower levels of concurrency in smaller networks, but these networks can still be disconnected with small changes in behavior. Concurrency remains a strategic target for HIV combination prevention programs in this context.

Characterization of reward and effort mechanisms in apathy

PubMed Central

Bonnelle, Valerie; Veromann, Kai-Riin; Burnett Heyes, Stephanie; Lo Sterzo, Elena; Manohar, Sanjay; Husain, Masud

2015-01-01

Apathy is a common but poorly understood condition with a wide societal impact observed in several brain disorders as well as, to some extent, in the normal population. Hence the need for better characterization of the underlying mechanisms. The processes by which individuals decide to attribute physical effort to obtain rewards might be particularly relevant to relate to apathy traits. Here, we designed two paradigms to assess individual differences in physical effort production and effort-based decision-making and their relation to apathy in healthy people. Apathy scores were measured using a modified version of the Lille Apathy Rating Scale, suitable for use in a non-clinical population. In the first study, apathy scores were correlated with the degree to which stake (reward on offer) and difficulty level impacts on physical effort production. Individuals with relatively high apathy traits showed an increased modulation of effort while more motivated individuals generally exerted greater force across different levels of stake. To clarify the underlying mechanisms for this behavior, we designed a second task that allows independent titration of stake and effort levels for which subjects are willing to engage in an effortful response to obtain a reward. Our results suggest that apathy traits in the normal population are related to the way reward subjectively affects the estimation of effort costs, and more particularly manifest as decreased willingness to exert effort when rewards are small, or below threshold. The tasks we introduce here may provide useful tools to further investigate apathy in clinical populations. PMID:24747776

A Cyfip2-Dependent Excitatory Interneuron Pathway Establishes the Innate Startle Threshold.

PubMed

Marsden, Kurt C; Jain, Roshan A; Wolman, Marc A; Echeverry, Fabio A; Nelson, Jessica C; Hayer, Katharina E; Miltenberg, Ben; Pereda, Alberto E; Granato, Michael

2018-04-17

Sensory experiences dynamically modify whether animals respond to a given stimulus, but it is unclear how innate behavioral thresholds are established. Here, we identify molecular and circuit-level mechanisms underlying the innate threshold of the zebrafish startle response. From a forward genetic screen, we isolated five mutant lines with reduced innate startle thresholds. Using whole-genome sequencing, we identify the causative mutation for one line to be in the fragile X mental retardation protein (FMRP)-interacting protein cyfip2. We show that cyfip2 acts independently of FMRP and that reactivation of cyfip2 restores the baseline threshold after phenotype onset. Finally, we show that cyfip2 regulates the innate startle threshold by reducing neural activity in a small group of excitatory hindbrain interneurons. Thus, we identify a selective set of genes critical to establishing an innate behavioral threshold and uncover a circuit-level role for cyfip2 in this process. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zou, Xingfu

2018-05-21

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.

Application of threshold concepts to ecological management problems: occupancy of Golden Eagles in Denali National Park, Alaska: Chapter 5

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eaton, Mitchell J.; Martin, Julien; Nichols, James D.; McIntyre, Carol; McCluskie, Maggie C.; Schmutz, Joel A.; Lubow, Bruce L.; Runge, Michael C.; Edited by Guntenspergen, Glenn R.

2014-01-01

In this chapter, we demonstrate the application of the various classes of thresholds, detailed in earlier chapters and elsewhere, via an actual but simplified natural resource management case study. We intend our example to provide the reader with the ability to recognize and apply the theoretical concepts of utility, ecological and decision thresholds to management problems through a formalized decision-analytic process. Our case study concerns the management of human recreational activities in Alaska’s Denali National Park, USA, and the possible impacts of such activities on nesting Golden Eagles, Aquila chrysaetos. Managers desire to allow visitors the greatest amount of access to park lands, provided that eagle nesting-site occupancy is maintained at a level determined to be acceptable by the managers themselves. As these two management objectives are potentially at odds, we treat minimum desired occupancy level as a utility threshold which, then, serves to guide the selection of annual management alternatives in the decision process. As human disturbance is not the only factor influencing eagle occupancy, we model nesting-site dynamics as a function of both disturbance and prey availability. We incorporate uncertainty in these dynamics by considering several hypotheses, including a hypothesis that site occupancy is affected only at a threshold level of prey abundance (i.e., an ecological threshold effect). By considering competing management objectives and accounting for two forms of thresholds in the decision process, we are able to determine the optimal number of annual nesting-site restrictions that will produce the greatest long-term benefits for both eagles and humans. Setting a utility threshold of 75 occupied sites, out of a total of 90 potential nesting sites, the optimization specified a decision threshold at approximately 80 occupied sites. At the point that current occupancy falls below 80 sites, the recommended decision is to begin restricting access to humans; above this level, it is recommended that all eagle territories be opened to human recreation. We evaluated the sensitivity of the decision threshold to uncertainty in system dynamics and to management objectives (i.e., to the utility threshold).

Intensity level for exercise training in fibromyalgia by using mathematical models.

PubMed

Lemos, Maria Carolina D; Valim, Valéria; Zandonade, Eliana; Natour, Jamil

2010-03-22

It has not been assessed before whether mathematical models described in the literature for prescriptions of exercise can be used for fibromyalgia syndrome patients. The objective of this paper was to determine how age-predicted heart rate formulas can be used with fibromyalgia syndrome populations as well as to find out which mathematical models are more accurate to control exercise intensity. A total of 60 women aged 18-65 years with fibromyalgia syndrome were included; 32 were randomized to walking training at anaerobic threshold. Age-predicted formulas to maximum heart rate ("220 minus age" and "208 minus 0.7 x age") were correlated with achieved maximum heart rate (HRMax) obtained by spiroergometry. Subsequently, six mathematical models using heart rate reserve (HRR) and age-predicted HRMax formulas were studied to estimate the intensity level of exercise training corresponding to heart rate at anaerobic threshold (HRAT) obtained by spiroergometry. Linear and nonlinear regression models were used for correlations and residues analysis for the adequacy of the models. Age-predicted HRMax and HRAT formulas had a good correlation with achieved heart rate obtained in spiroergometry (r = 0.642; p < 0.05). For exercise prescription in the anaerobic threshold intensity, the percentages were 52.2-60.6% HRR and 75.5-80.9% HRMax. Formulas using HRR and the achieved HRMax showed better correlation. Furthermore, the percentages of HRMax and HRR were significantly higher for the trained individuals (p < 0.05). Age-predicted formulas can be used for estimating HRMax and for exercise prescriptions in women with fibromyalgia syndrome. Karnoven's formula using heart rate achieved in ergometric test showed a better correlation. For the prescription of exercises in the threshold intensity, 52% to 60% HRR or 75% to 80% HRMax must be used in sedentary women with fibromyalgia syndrome and these values are higher and must be corrected for trained patients.

Intensity level for exercise training in fibromyalgia by using mathematical models

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background It has not been assessed before whether mathematical models described in the literature for prescriptions of exercise can be used for fibromyalgia syndrome patients. The objective of this paper was to determine how age-predicted heart rate formulas can be used with fibromyalgia syndrome populations as well as to find out which mathematical models are more accurate to control exercise intensity. Methods A total of 60 women aged 18-65 years with fibromyalgia syndrome were included; 32 were randomized to walking training at anaerobic threshold. Age-predicted formulas to maximum heart rate ("220 minus age" and "208 minus 0.7 × age") were correlated with achieved maximum heart rate (HRMax) obtained by spiroergometry. Subsequently, six mathematical models using heart rate reserve (HRR) and age-predicted HRMax formulas were studied to estimate the intensity level of exercise training corresponding to heart rate at anaerobic threshold (HRAT) obtained by spiroergometry. Linear and nonlinear regression models were used for correlations and residues analysis for the adequacy of the models. Results Age-predicted HRMax and HRAT formulas had a good correlation with achieved heart rate obtained in spiroergometry (r = 0.642; p < 0.05). For exercise prescription in the anaerobic threshold intensity, the percentages were 52.2-60.6% HRR and 75.5-80.9% HRMax. Formulas using HRR and the achieved HRMax showed better correlation. Furthermore, the percentages of HRMax and HRR were significantly higher for the trained individuals (p < 0.05). Conclusion Age-predicted formulas can be used for estimating HRMax and for exercise prescriptions in women with fibromyalgia syndrome. Karnoven's formula using heart rate achieved in ergometric test showed a better correlation. For the prescription of exercises in the threshold intensity, 52% to 60% HRR or 75% to 80% HRMax must be used in sedentary women with fibromyalgia syndrome and these values are higher and must be corrected for trained patients. PMID:20307323

Adaptive gain and filtering circuit for a sound reproduction system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engebretson, A. Maynard (Inventor); O'Connell, Michael P. (Inventor)

1998-01-01

Adaptive compressive gain and level dependent spectral shaping circuitry for a hearing aid include a microphone to produce an input signal and a plurality of channels connected to a common circuit output. Each channel has a preset frequency response. Each channel includes a filter with a preset frequency response to receive the input signal and to produce a filtered signal, a channel amplifier to amplify the filtered signal to produce a channel output signal, a threshold register to establish a channel threshold level, and a gain circuit. The gain circuit increases the gain of the channel amplifier when the channel output signal falls below the channel threshold level and decreases the gain of the channel amplifier when the channel output signal rises above the channel threshold level. A transducer produces sound in response to the signal passed by the common circuit output.

Comminution of Aeolian Materials on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Marshall, John R.

1998-01-01

The research task had a two-year performance period for the investigation of aeolian processes on Mars. Specifically, we were investigating the comminution of sand grains as individual particles, and as bulk populations. Laboratory experiment were completed for the individual particles, and results led to new theory for aeolian transport that is broadly applicable to all planetary surfaces. The theory was presented at the LPSC and the GSA in 1998 and 1997 respectively. Essentially, the new theory postulates that aeolian transport is dependent upon two motion thresholds- an aerodynamic threshold and a bed-dilatancy threshold.

Meta-analysis of gene-level tests for rare variant association.

PubMed

Liu, Dajiang J; Peloso, Gina M; Zhan, Xiaowei; Holmen, Oddgeir L; Zawistowski, Matthew; Feng, Shuang; Nikpay, Majid; Auer, Paul L; Goel, Anuj; Zhang, He; Peters, Ulrike; Farrall, Martin; Orho-Melander, Marju; Kooperberg, Charles; McPherson, Ruth; Watkins, Hugh; Willer, Cristen J; Hveem, Kristian; Melander, Olle; Kathiresan, Sekar; Abecasis, Gonçalo R

2014-02-01

The majority of reported complex disease associations for common genetic variants have been identified through meta-analysis, a powerful approach that enables the use of large sample sizes while protecting against common artifacts due to population structure and repeated small-sample analyses sharing individual-level data. As the focus of genetic association studies shifts to rare variants, genes and other functional units are becoming the focus of analysis. Here we propose and evaluate new approaches for performing meta-analysis of rare variant association tests, including burden tests, weighted burden tests, variable-threshold tests and tests that allow variants with opposite effects to be grouped together. We show that our approach retains useful features from single-variant meta-analysis approaches and demonstrate its use in a study of blood lipid levels in ∼18,500 individuals genotyped with exome arrays.

Atomic Data and Spectral Line Intensities for Ni XV

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landi, E.; Bhatia, A. K.

2011-01-01

Electron impact collision strengths, energy levels, oscillator strengths, and spontaneous radiative decay rates are calculated for Ni XV.Weinclude in the calculations the 9 lowest configurations, corresponding to 126 fine structure levels: 3s23p2, 3s3p3, 3s23p3d, 3p4, 3s3p23d, and 3s2 3p4l with l =, s, p, d, f. Collision strengths are calculated at five incident energies for all transitions: 7.8, 18.5, 33.5, 53.5, and 80.2 Ry above the threshold of each transition. An additional energy, very close to the transition threshold, has been added, whose value is between 0.004 and 0.28 Ry depending on the levels involved. Calculations have been carried out using the Flexible Atomic Code and the distorted-wave approximation. Excitation rate coefficients are calculated as a function of electron temperature by assuming a Maxwellian electron velocity distribution. Using the excitation rate coefficients and the radiative transition rates calculated in the present work, statistical equilibrium equations for level populations are solved at electron densities covering the 10(exp 8)-10(exp 14)/cu cm range and at an electron temperature of log T(sub e)(K) = 6.4, corresponding to the maximum abundance of Ni XV. Spectral line intensities are calculated, and their diagnostic relevance is discussed. This dataset will be made available in the next version of the CHIANTI database.

Examination of an eHealth literacy scale and a health literacy scale in a population with moderate to high cardiovascular risk: Rasch analyses.

PubMed

Richtering, Sarah S; Morris, Rebecca; Soh, Sze-Ee; Barker, Anna; Bampi, Fiona; Neubeck, Lis; Coorey, Genevieve; Mulley, John; Chalmers, John; Usherwood, Tim; Peiris, David; Chow, Clara K; Redfern, Julie

2017-01-01

Electronic health (eHealth) strategies are evolving making it important to have valid scales to assess eHealth and health literacy. Item response theory methods, such as the Rasch measurement model, are increasingly used for the psychometric evaluation of scales. This paper aims to examine the internal construct validity of an eHealth and health literacy scale using Rasch analysis in a population with moderate to high cardiovascular disease risk. The first 397 participants of the CONNECT study completed the electronic health Literacy Scale (eHEALS) and the Health Literacy Questionnaire (HLQ). Overall Rasch model fit as well as five key psychometric properties were analysed: unidimensionality, response thresholds, targeting, differential item functioning and internal consistency. The eHEALS had good overall model fit (χ2 = 54.8, p = 0.06), ordered response thresholds, reasonable targeting and good internal consistency (person separation index (PSI) 0.90). It did, however, appear to measure two constructs of eHealth literacy. The HLQ subscales (except subscale 5) did not fit the Rasch model (χ2: 18.18-60.60, p: 0.00-0.58) and had suboptimal targeting for most subscales. Subscales 6 to 9 displayed disordered thresholds indicating participants had difficulty distinguishing between response options. All subscales did, nonetheless, demonstrate moderate to good internal consistency (PSI: 0.62-0.82). Rasch analyses demonstrated that the eHEALS has good measures of internal construct validity although it appears to capture different aspects of eHealth literacy (e.g. using eHealth and understanding eHealth). Whilst further studies are required to confirm this finding, it may be necessary for these constructs of the eHEALS to be scored separately. The nine HLQ subscales were shown to measure a single construct of health literacy. However, participants' scores may not represent their actual level of ability, as distinction between response categories was unclear for the last four subscales. Reducing the response categories of these subscales may improve the ability of the HLQ to distinguish between different levels of health literacy.

Effect of acute stress on taste perception: in relation with baseline anxiety level and body weight.

PubMed

Ileri-Gurel, Esin; Pehlivanoglu, Bilge; Dogan, Murat

2013-01-01

We aimed to determine the effect of acute stress on taste perception and its modulation in relation to body weight and baseline anxiety in this study. The anxiety of the participants, randomly allocated to stress (n = 35) or control (n = 16) groups, was assessed by State Trait Anxiety Inventory. Stroop color-word interference and cold pressor tests were applied as stress protocol. Glucose and salt taste detection thresholds were evaluated before and after the stress protocol in the stress group and corresponding times in the control group. Stress protocol increased heart rate and blood pressure as an indicator of stress system activation. Following stress glucose and salt thresholds decreased in the stress group, unchanged in the control group. Prestress salt thresholds were positively and decrements in salt thresholds were negatively correlated with trait anxiety scores of participants. The state anxiety levels of stress group positively correlated with the decrease in glucose thresholds. Waist-to-hip ratio was negatively correlated with prestress salt thresholds of the subjects. Our results revealed that thresholds for sweet and salty tastes are modulated during stressful conditions. Our data also demonstrated a relationship between taste perception and baseline anxiety levels of healthy individuals, which may be important to understand the appetite alterations in individuals under stressful conditions.

Atomic Data and Spectral Line Intensities for NI XVII

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bhatia, A. K.; Landi, E.

2011-01-01

Electron impact collision strengths, energy levels, oscillator strengths, and spontaneous radiative decay rates are calculated for Ni XVII. We include in the calculations the 23 lowest configurations, corresponding to 159 fine-structure levels: 3l3l', 3l4l0'' , and 3s5l0''' , with l,l' = s,p,d, l'' = s,p,d, f, and l''' = s,p,d. Collision strengths are calculated at five incident energies for all transitions at varying energies above the threshold of each transition. One additional energy, very close to the threshold of each transition, has also been included. Calculations have been carried out using the Flexible Atomic Code in the distorted wave approximation. Additional calculations have been performed with the University College London suite of codes for comparison. Excitation rate coefficients are calculated as a function of electron temperature by assuming a Maxwellian electron velocity distribution. Using the excitation rate coefficients and the radiative transition rates of the present work, statistical equilibrium equations for level populations are solved at electron densities covering the range of 10(exp 8) - 10(exp 14) / cubic cm and at an electron temperature of logT(sub e)e(K) = 6.5, corresponding to the maximum abundance of Ni XVII. Spectral line intensities are calculated, and their diagnostic relevance is discussed. This dataset will be made available in the next version of the CHIANTI database

Differences in taste detection thresholds between normal-weight and obese young adults.

PubMed

Park, Dong Choon; Yeo, Joon Hyung; Ryu, In Yong; Kim, Sang Hoon; Jung, Junyang; Yeo, Seung Geun

2015-05-01

Compared with normal-weight individuals, obese young adults exhibited a significantly higher taste threshold for salty taste. Smoking also affected taste functions in this population. The aim of this study was to investigate the differences in taste detection thresholds between normal-weight and obese young adults. Taste threshold was measured using electrogustometry (EGM) and chemically with sucrose, NaCl, citric acid, and quinine hydrochloride in 41 volunteers in their twenties, 23 with body mass index (BMI) <23 kg/m(2) (normal-weight group) and 18 with BMI >25 kg/m(2) (obese group). BMI was significantly higher in the obese than in the normal-weight group (p < 0.05). The obese group exhibited significantly higher EGM thresholds than the normal-weight group on the right (p < 0.05) and left (p < 0.05) posterior tongue. In chemical taste tests, the obese group had higher thresholds for sweet, salty, sour, and bitter tastes than the normal-weight group, although the difference in threshold was significant only for salty taste (p < 0.05). Smoking had an impact on taste threshold, with smokers having higher thresholds than non-smokers, with significantly higher EGM thresholds on the right anterior and posterior and the left anterior tongue (p < 0.05 each).

Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

Treesearch

David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

2015-01-01

Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

Variation in and responses to brood pheromone of the honey bee (Apis mellifera L.).

PubMed

Metz, Bradley N; Pankiw, Tanya; Tichy, Shane E; Aronstein, Katherine A; Crewe, Robin M

2010-04-01

The 10 fatty acid ester components of brood pheromone were extracted from larvae of different populations of USA and South African honey bees and subjected to gas chromatography-mass spectrometry quantitative analysis. Extractable amounts of brood pheromone were not significantly different by larval population; however, differences in the proportions of components enabled us to classify larval population of 77% of samples correctly by discriminant analysis. Honeybee releaser and primer pheromone responses to USA, Africanized and-European pheromone blends were tested. Texas-Africanized and Georgia-European colonies responded with a significantly greater ratio of returning pollen foragers when treated with a blend from the same population than from a different population. There was a significant interaction of pheromone blend by adult population source among Georgia-European bees for modulation of sucrose response threshold, a primer response. Brood pheromone blend variation interacted with population for pollen foraging response of colonies, suggesting a self recognition cue for this pheromone releaser behavior. An interaction of pheromone blend and population for priming sucrose response thresholds among workers within the first week of adult life suggested a more complex interplay of genotype, ontogeny, and pheromone blend.

Increased hs-CRP and decreased 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D are associated with increased left ventricle lead threshold.

PubMed

Gözübüyük, Gökhan; Koç, Mevlüt; Kaypaklı, Onur; Şahin, Durmuş Yıldıray

2016-11-01

There are not enough data about threshold changes in patients with CRT. In this study, we aimed to investigate frequency of significant threshold increase of left ventricle lead and to determine clinical, demographic, medical and laboratory parameters that associated with threshold increase in CRT implanted patients. We included CRT implanted 200 patients (124 males, 76 females; mean age 65.8 ± 10.3 years) to this study. Basal and third month LV R wave amplitude, electrode impedance, and threshold values were recorded. Threshold increase was accepted as ≥0.1 V and significant increase as >1 V. Patients were divided into two groups: increased threshold and non-increased threshold for LV lead. Number of patients with increased LV threshold was 68 (37.6 %). Furthermore, 8 % of patients had severe increase (≥1 V) in LV threshold. We observed that serum levels of hs-CRP and 1,25 (OH)2 vitamin D were independently associated with increased LV threshold. We showed that 1 mg/dl increase in hs-CRP and the 1 mg/dl decrease in vitamin D are associated with 25.3 and 4.5 % increase in the odds of increased LV threshold, respectively. Increased hs-CRP and decreased 1,25 (OH)2 vitamin D are the strongest predictors of increased LV lead thresholds. We suggest that hs-CRP and 1,25 (OH)2 vitamin D may be used as markers to predict and follow the patients with increased thresholds. It may be useful to finalize CRT procedure with more appropriate basal threshold in patients with high serum hs-CRP and low 1,25 (OH)2 vitamin D levels.

Defining operating rules for mitigation of drought effects on water supply systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, G.; Caporali, E.; Garrote, L.; Federici, G. V.

2012-04-01

Reservoirs play a pivotal role for water supply systems regulation and management especially during drought periods. Optimization of reservoir releases, related to drought mitigation rules is particularly required. The hydrologic state of the system is evaluated defining some threshold values, expressed in probabilistic terms. Risk deficit curves are used to reduce the ensemble of possible rules for simulation. Threshold values can be linked to specific actions in an operational context in different levels of severity, i.e. normal, pre-alert, alert and emergency scenarios. A simplified model of the water resources system is built to evaluate the threshold values and the management rules. The threshold values are defined considering the probability to satisfy a given fraction of the demand in a certain time horizon, and are validated with a long term simulation that takes into account the characteristics of the evaluated system. The threshold levels determine some curves that define reservoir releases as a function of existing storage volume. A demand reduction is related to each threshold level. The rules to manage the system in drought conditions, the threshold levels and the reductions are optimized using long term simulations with different hypothesized states of the system. Synthetic sequences of flows with the same statistical properties of the historical ones are produced to evaluate the system behaviour. Performances of different values of reduction and different threshold curves are evaluated using different objective function and performances indices. The methodology is applied to the urban area Firenze-Prato-Pistoia in central Tuscany, in Central Italy. The considered demand centres are Firenze and Bagno a Ripoli that have, accordingly to the census ISTAT 2001, a total of 395.000 inhabitants.

Synchronization of low- and high-threshold motor units.

PubMed

Defreitas, Jason M; Beck, Travis W; Ye, Xin; Stock, Matt S

2014-04-01

We examined the degree of synchronization for both low- and high-threshold motor unit (MU) pairs at high force levels. MU spike trains were recorded from the quadriceps during high-force isometric leg extensions. Short-term synchronization (between -6 and 6 ms) was calculated for every unique MU pair for each contraction. At high force levels, earlier recruited motor unit pairs (low-threshold) demonstrated relatively low levels of short-term synchronization (approximately 7.3% extra firings than would have been expected by chance). However, the magnitude of synchronization increased significantly and linearly with mean recruitment threshold (reaching 22.1% extra firings for motor unit pairs recruited above 70% MVC). Three potential mechanisms that could explain the observed differences in synchronization across motor unit types are proposed and discussed. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Do You See What I See? Exploring the Consequences of Luminosity Limits in Black Hole-Galaxy Evolution Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Mackenzie L.; Hickox, Ryan C.; Mutch, Simon J.; Croton, Darren J.; Ptak, Andrew F.; DiPompeo, Michael A.

2017-07-01

In studies of the connection between active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and their host galaxies, there is widespread disagreement on some key aspects of the connection. These disagreements largely stem from a lack of understanding of the nature of the full underlying AGN population. Recent attempts to probe this connection utilize both observations and simulations to correct for a missed population, but presently are limited by intrinsic biases and complicated models. We take a simple simulation for galaxy evolution and add a new prescription for AGN activity to connect galaxy growth to dark matter halo properties and AGN activity to star formation. We explicitly model selection effects to produce an “observed” AGN population for comparison with observations and empirically motivated models of the local universe. This allows us to bypass the difficulties inherent in models that attempt to infer the AGN population by inverting selection effects. We investigate the impact of selecting AGNs based on thresholds in luminosity or Eddington ratio on the “observed” AGN population. By limiting our model AGN sample in luminosity, we are able to recreate the observed local AGN luminosity function and specific star formation-stellar mass distribution, and show that using an Eddington ratio threshold introduces less bias into the sample by selecting the full range of growing black holes, despite the challenge of selecting low-mass black holes. We find that selecting AGNs using these various thresholds yield samples with different AGN host galaxy properties.

Quantitative Assessment of the Safety Benefits Associated with Increasing Clinical Peanut Thresholds Through Immunotherapy.

PubMed

Baumert, Joseph L; Taylor, Steve L; Koppelman, Stef J

Peanut immunotherapy studies are conducted with the aim to decrease the sensitivity of patients to peanut exposure with the outcome evaluated by testing the threshold for allergic response in a double-blind placebo-controlled food challenge. The clinical relevance of increasing this threshold is not well characterized. We aimed to quantify the clinical benefit of an increased threshold for peanut-allergic patients. Quantitative risk assessment was performed by matching modeled exposure to peanut protein with individual threshold levels. Exposure was modeled by pairing US consumption data for various food product categories with potential contamination levels of peanut that have been demonstrated to be present on occasion in such food products. Cookies, ice cream, doughnuts/snack cakes, and snack chip mixes were considered in the risk assessment. Increasing the baseline threshold before immunotherapy from 100 mg or less peanut protein to 300 mg peanut protein postimmunotherapy reduces the risk of experiencing an allergic reaction by more than 95% for all 4 food product categories that may contain trace levels of peanut residue. Further increase in the threshold to 1000 mg of peanut protein had an additional quantitative benefit in risk reduction for all patients reacting to 300 mg or less at baseline. We conclude that achieving thresholds of 300 mg and 1000 mg of peanut protein by peanut immunotherapy is clinically relevant, and that the risk for peanut-allergic patients who have achieved this increased threshold to experience an allergic reaction is reduced in a clinically meaningful way. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determination of minimal steady-state plasma level of diazepam causing seizure threshold elevation in rats.

PubMed

Dhir, Ashish; Rogawski, Michael A

2018-05-01

Diazepam, administered by the intravenous, oral, or rectal routes, is widely used for the management of acute seizures. Dosage forms for delivery of diazepam by other routes of administration, including intranasal, intramuscular, and transbuccal, are under investigation. In predicting what dosages are necessary to terminate seizures, the minimal exposure required to confer seizure protection must be known. Here we administered diazepam by continuous intravenous infusion to obtain near-steady-state levels, which allowed an assessment of the minimal levels that elevate seizure threshold. The thresholds for various behavioral seizure signs (myoclonic jerk, clonus, and tonus) were determined with the timed intravenous pentylenetetrazol seizure threshold test in rats. Diazepam was administered to freely moving animals by continuous intravenous infusion via an indwelling jugular vein cannula. Blood samples for assay of plasma levels of diazepam and metabolites were recovered via an indwelling cannula in the contralateral jugular vein. The pharmacokinetic parameters of diazepam following a single 80-μg/kg intravenous bolus injection were determined using a noncompartmental pharmacokinetic approach. The derived parameters V d , CL, t 1/2α (distribution half-life) and t 1/2β (terminal half-life) for diazepam were, respectively, 608 mL, 22.1 mL/min, 13.7 minutes, and 76.8 minutes, respectively. Various doses of diazepam were continuously infused without or with an initial loading dose. At the end of the infusions, the thresholds for various behavioral seizure signs were determined. The minimal plasma diazepam concentration associated with threshold elevations was estimated at approximately 70 ng/mL. The active metabolites nordiazepam, oxazepam, and temazepam achieved levels that are expected to make only minor contributions to the threshold elevations. Diazepam elevates seizure threshold at steady-state plasma concentrations lower than previously recognized. The minimally effective plasma concentration provides a reference that may be considered when estimating the diazepam exposure required for acute seizure treatment. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2018 International League Against Epilepsy.

Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.; Pleasants, John M.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Taylor, Orley R.

2016-01-01

The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

Locating helicopter emergency medical service bases to optimise population coverage versus average response time.

PubMed

Garner, Alan A; van den Berg, Pieter L

2017-10-16

New South Wales (NSW), Australia has a network of multirole retrieval physician staffed helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) with seven bases servicing a jurisdiction with population concentrated along the eastern seaboard. The aim of this study was to estimate optimal HEMS base locations within NSW using advanced mathematical modelling techniques. We used high resolution census population data for NSW from 2011 which divides the state into areas containing 200-800 people. Optimal HEMS base locations were estimated using the maximal covering location problem facility location optimization model and the average response time model, exploring the number of bases needed to cover various fractions of the population for a 45 min response time threshold or minimizing the overall average response time to all persons, both in green field scenarios and conditioning on the current base structure. We also developed a hybrid mathematical model where average response time was optimised based on minimum population coverage thresholds. Seven bases could cover 98% of the population within 45mins when optimised for coverage or reach the entire population of the state within an average of 21mins if optimised for response time. Given the existing bases, adding two bases could either increase the 45 min coverage from 91% to 97% or decrease the average response time from 21mins to 19mins. Adding a single specialist prehospital rapid response HEMS to the area of greatest population concentration decreased the average state wide response time by 4mins. The optimum seven base hybrid model that was able to cover 97.75% of the population within 45mins, and all of the population in an average response time of 18 mins included the rapid response HEMS model. HEMS base locations can be optimised based on either percentage of the population covered, or average response time to the entire population. We have also demonstrated a hybrid technique that optimizes response time for a given number of bases and minimum defined threshold of population coverage. Addition of specialized rapid response HEMS services to a system of multirole retrieval HEMS may reduce overall average response times by improving access in large urban areas.

Forecasting the probability of future groundwater levels declining below specified low thresholds in the conterminous U.S.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Dickinson, Jesse

2017-01-01

We present a logistic regression approach for forecasting the probability of future groundwater levels declining or maintaining below specific groundwater-level thresholds. We tested our approach on 102 groundwater wells in different climatic regions and aquifers of the United States that are part of the U.S. Geological Survey Groundwater Climate Response Network. We evaluated the importance of current groundwater levels, precipitation, streamflow, seasonal variability, Palmer Drought Severity Index, and atmosphere/ocean indices for developing the logistic regression equations. Several diagnostics of model fit were used to evaluate the regression equations, including testing of autocorrelation of residuals, goodness-of-fit metrics, and bootstrap validation testing. The probabilistic predictions were most successful at wells with high persistence (low month-to-month variability) in their groundwater records and at wells where the groundwater level remained below the defined low threshold for sustained periods (generally three months or longer). The model fit was weakest at wells with strong seasonal variability in levels and with shorter duration low-threshold events. We identified challenges in deriving probabilistic-forecasting models and possible approaches for addressing those challenges.

Triggers and appropriateness of red blood cell transfusions in the postpartum patient--a retrospective audit.

PubMed

So-Osman, C; Cicilia, J; Brand, A; Schipperus, M; Berning, B; Scherjon, S

2010-01-01

Despite published guidelines, a proportion of red blood cell (RBC) transfusions seem unnecessary. To evaluate the indications for and the appropriateness of RBC transfusions in the postpartum patient, we performed a retrospective audit over a 1-year period in two Dutch hospitals. Observational study of transfused obstetric patients, admitted in 2006 to the Departments of Obstetrics of a university and a general hospital, was carried out. Relevant clinical and laboratory data were recorded. The appropriateness of RBC transfusions was assessed using the national and age-based transfusion guidelines for the general population; for the studied group the transfusion threshold haemoglobin (Hb) value was 6.4 g/dl for non-massive and 8.1 g/dl for massive blood loss. From these we derived target Hb levels. Ninety patients received one or more RBC units within 48 h of delivery. Mean pretransfusion Hb level was 6.9 [SD 1.2] g/dl. Median number of transfusions was 2. Mean Hb level at discharge was 9.7 [SD 1.1] g/dl. Taking threshold Hb and the derived target Hb level into account, 68% (n = 61) of the patients may have received one or more RBC units inappropriately. Of 311 RBC units transfused, 143 units (46%) were possibly inappropriate, partly due to over-transfusion. A significant proportion of postpartum RBC transfusions are possibly inappropriate, partly due to over-transfusion. If current guidelines would be more specific, in particular, with respect to the target Hb levels, the total amount of RBC transfusions may be considerably decreased.

Do Ankle Orthoses Improve Ankle Proprioceptive Thresholds or Unipedal Balance in Older Persons with Peripheral Neuropathy?

PubMed Central

Son, Jaebum; Ashton-Miller, James A.; Richardson, James K.

2010-01-01

Objective To determine whether ankle orthoses that provide medial and lateral support, and have been found to decrease gait variability in older persons with peripheral neuropathy, decrease (improve) frontal plane ankle proprioceptive thresholds or increase unipedal stance time in that same population. Design Observational study in which unipedal stance time was determined with a stopwatch, and frontal plane ankle (inversion and eversion) proprioceptive thresholds were quantified during bipedal stance with and without the ankle orthoses, in 11 older diabetic subjects with peripheral neuropathy (8 men; age 72 ± 7.1 years) using a foot cradle system which presented a series of 100 rotational stimuli. Results The subjects demonstrated no change in combined frontal plane (inversion + eversion) proprioceptive thresholds or unipedal stance time with versus without the orthoses (1.06 ± 0.56 versus 1.13 ± 0.39 degrees, respectively; p = 0.955 and 6.1 ± 6.5 versus 6.2 ± 5.4 seconds, respectively; p = 0.922). Conclusion Ankle orthoses which provide medial-lateral support do not appear to change ankle inversion/eversion proprioceptive thresholds or unipedal stance time in older persons with diabetic peripheral neuropathy. Previously identified improvements in gait variability using orthoses in this population are therefore likely related to an orthotically-induced stiffening of the ankle rather than a change in ankle afferent function. PMID:20407302

Application of Real-Time PCR for Quantification of Microcystin Genotypes in a Population of the Toxic Cyanobacterium Microcystis sp.

PubMed Central

Kurmayer, Rainer; Kutzenberger, Thomas

2003-01-01

The cyanobacterium Microcystis sp. frequently develops water blooms consisting of organisms with different genotypes that either produce or lack the hepatotoxin microcystin. In order to monitor the development of microcystin (mcy) genotypes during the seasonal cycle of the total population, mcy genotypes were quantified by means of real-time PCR in Lake Wannsee (Berlin, Germany) from June 1999 to October 2000. Standard curves were established by relating cell concentrations to the threshold cycle (the PCR cycle number at which the fluorescence passes a set threshold level) determined by the Taq nuclease assay (TNA) for two gene regions, the intergenic spacer region within the phycocyanin (PC) operon to quantify the total population and the mcyB gene, which is indicative of microcystin synthesis. In laboratory batch cultures, the cell numbers inferred from the standard curve by TNA correlated significantly with the microscopically determined cell numbers on a logarithmic scale. The TNA analysis of 10 strains revealed identical amplification efficiencies for both genes. In the field, the proportion of mcy genotypes made up the smaller part of the PC genotypes, ranging from 1 to 38%. The number of mcyB genotypes was one-to-one related to the number of PC genotypes, and parallel relationships between cell numbers estimated via the inverted microscope technique and TNA were found for both genes. It is concluded that the mean proportion of microcystin genotypes is stable from winter to summer and that Microcystis cell numbers could be used to infer the mean proportion of mcy genotypes in Lake Wannsee. PMID:14602633

Factors Affecting the Biology and Pathogenicity of Heterodera schachtii on Sugarbeet.

PubMed

Griffin, G D

1988-07-01

A direct relationship exists between soil temperature and Heterodera schachtii development. The average developmental period of two nematode populations from Lewiston, Utah, and Rupert, Idaho, from J2 to J3, J4, adult, and the next generation J2 at soil temperatures of 18-28 C were 100, 140,225, and 399 degree-days (base 8 C), respectively. There was a positive relationship (P < 0.05) between nematode Pi, nematode generations, and sugarbeet yields. The greatest sugarbeet growth inhibition (87%) occurred when sugarbeets were exposed to a Pi of 12 eggs/cm(3) soil for five generations (1,995 degree-days), compared with a 47% inhibition when plants were exposed to the same Pi for two generations. There was a negative correlation (P < 0.05) between the Pi, Pf, and sugarbeet yield for each population threshold. The smaller the Pi, the greater the sugarbeet yields and the greater the Pf. Root yields were 80 and 29 t /ha and Pf were 8.4 and 3.6 eggs/cm(3) soil when sugarbeet seeds were planted at Pi of 0.4 and 7.9 eggs/cm(3). respectively, at a soil temperature of 8 C. The number of years rotation with a nonhost crop required to reduce the nematode population density below a damage threshold level of 2 eggs/cm(3) depends on the Pi. A Pi of 33.8 eggs/cm(3) soil required a 5-year crop rotation, whereas a Pi of 8.4 eggs/cm(3) soil required a 2-year crop rotation.

Factors Affecting the Biology and Pathogenicity of Heterodera schachtii on Sugarbeet

PubMed Central

Griffin, G. D.

1988-01-01

A direct relationship exists between soil temperature and Heterodera schachtii development. The average developmental period of two nematode populations from Lewiston, Utah, and Rupert, Idaho, from J2 to J3, J4, adult, and the next generation J2 at soil temperatures of 18-28 C were 100, 140,225, and 399 degree-days (base 8 C), respectively. There was a positive relationship (P < 0.05) between nematode Pi, nematode generations, and sugarbeet yields. The greatest sugarbeet growth inhibition (87%) occurred when sugarbeets were exposed to a Pi of 12 eggs/cm³ soil for five generations (1,995 degree-days), compared with a 47% inhibition when plants were exposed to the same Pi for two generations. There was a negative correlation (P < 0.05) between the Pi, Pf, and sugarbeet yield for each population threshold. The smaller the Pi, the greater the sugarbeet yields and the greater the Pf. Root yields were 80 and 29 t /ha and Pf were 8.4 and 3.6 eggs/cm³ soil when sugarbeet seeds were planted at Pi of 0.4 and 7.9 eggs/cm³. respectively, at a soil temperature of 8 C. The number of years rotation with a nonhost crop required to reduce the nematode population density below a damage threshold level of 2 eggs/cm³ depends on the Pi. A Pi of 33.8 eggs/cm³ soil required a 5-year crop rotation, whereas a Pi of 8.4 eggs/cm³ soil required a 2-year crop rotation. PMID:19290229