The Impact of Roads on the Demography of Grizzly Bears in Alberta

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

One of the principal factors that have reduced grizzly bear populations has been the creation of human access into grizzly bear habitat by roads built for resource extraction. Past studies have documented mortality and distributional changes of bears relative to roads but none have attempted to estimate the direct demographic impact of roads in terms of both survival rates, reproductive rates, and the interaction of reproductive state of female bears with survival rate. We applied a combination of survival and reproductive models to estimate demographic parameters for threatened grizzly bear populations in Alberta. Instead of attempting to estimate mean trend we explored factors which caused biological and spatial variation in population trend. We found that sex and age class survival was related to road density with subadult bears being most vulnerable to road-based mortality. A multi-state reproduction model found that females accompanied by cubs of the year and/or yearling cubs had lower survival rates compared to females with two year olds or no cubs. A demographic model found strong spatial gradients in population trend based upon road density. Threshold road densities needed to ensure population stability were estimated to further refine targets for population recovery of grizzly bears in Alberta. Models that considered lowered survival of females with dependant offspring resulted in lower road density thresholds to ensure stable bear populations. Our results demonstrate likely spatial variation in population trend and provide an example how demographic analysis can be used to refine and direct conservation measures for threatened species. PMID:25532035

Techniques and results of nongame bird monitoring in North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, C.S.; Bystrak, D.; Geissler, P.H.; Oelke, H.

1980-01-01

Long-term bird population trends based on accumulated ratios (proportional change) sometimes give a very misleading view of population change. Alternate methods of representing population change, based on the weighted means for the individual years, avoid the dangers of using ratios. Some advantages and disadvantages of various weighting techniques are discussed.

Population trends of North American shorebirds based on the International Shorebird Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howe, M.A.; Geissler, P.H.; Harrington, B.A.

1989-01-01

Shorebirds (Charadiiformes) are prime candidates for population decline because of their dependence on wetlands that are being lost at a rapid pace. Thirty-six of the 49 species of shorebirds that breed in North America spend most of the year in Latin America. Because populations of most species breed and winter at remote sites , it may be feasible to monitor their numbers at migration stopovers. In this study, we used statistical trend analysis methods, developed for the North American Breeding Bird Survey, to analyze data on shorebird populations during south-bound migration in the United States. Survey data were collected by volunteers in the International Shorebird Survey (ISS). Methodological concerns over both the ISS and the trend analysis procedures are discussed in detail and biological interpretations of the results are suggested.

Detecting population recovery using gametic disequilibrium-based effective population size estimates

Treesearch

David A. Tallmon; Robin S. Waples; Dave Gregovich; Michael K. Schwartz

2012-01-01

Recovering populations often must meet specific growth rate or abundance targets before their legal status can be changed from endangered or threatened. While the efficacy, power, and performance of population metrics to infer trends in declining populations has received considerable attention, how these same metrics perform when populations are increasing is less...

Time Trend Analysis of Oral Cancer in Iran from 2005 to 2010.

PubMed

Iranfar, Khosro; Mokhayeri, Yaser; Mohammadi, Gohar

2016-01-01

There is a considerable lack of understanding of oral cancer incidence, especially its time trend in Iran. In this study, the authors aimed to analyze time trend of oral cancer incidence with a focus on differences by gender in a period of six years - from 2005 to 2010. Both population-based cancer registry and national cancer registry (NCR) data based on pathologic reports from 2005 to 2010 were obtained from the Ministry of Health and Medical Education (MOHME). Population data were also received from Statistical Centre of Iran. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASRs) based on the World Standard Population were then calculated. Finally, Negative Binomial regression was run for time trend analysis. The maximum ASR for males was calculated as 2.5 per 100,000 person-years in 2008 and the minimum was observed as 1.9 per 100,000 person-years in 2005 and 2006. Meanwhile, the maximum ASR for females was estimated as 1.8 per 100,000 person-years in 2009 and the minimum was calculated as 1.6 per 100,000 person-years in 2005 and 2006. Additionally, in females, incidence risk ratio (IRR) did not show a clear decreasing or increasing trend during the six years. Nevertheless, in males an increasing trend was observed. The maximum IRR adjusted for age group and province, for females was reported in 2009 (IRR=1.05 95% CI: 0.90-1.23), and for males was estimated in 2010 (IRR=1/2 95% CI: 1.04 - 1.38). Our findings highlight disparities between oral cancer incidence trends in males and females over the six years from 2005 to 2010.

Population Trend and Elasticities of Vital Rates for Steller Sea Lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in the Eastern Gulf of Alaska: A New Life-History Table Analysis

PubMed Central

Maniscalco, John M.; Springer, Alan M.; Adkison, Milo D.; Parker, Pamela

2015-01-01

Steller sea lion (Eumetopias jubatus) numbers are beginning to recover across most of the western distinct population segment following catastrophic declines that began in the 1970s and ended around the turn of the century. This study makes use of contemporary vital rate estimates from a trend-site rookery in the eastern Gulf of Alaska (a sub-region of the western population) in a matrix population model to estimate the trend and strength of the recovery across this region between 2003 and 2013. The modeled population trend was projected into the future based on observed variation in vital rates and a prospective elasticity analysis was conducted to determine future trends and which vital rates pose the greatest threats to recovery. The modeled population grew at a mean rate of 3.5% per yr between 2003 and 2013 and was correlated with census count data from the local rookery and throughout the eastern Gulf of Alaska. If recent vital rate estimates continue with little change, the eastern Gulf of Alaska population could be fully recovered to pre-decline levels within 23 years. With density dependent growth, the population would need another 45 years to fully recover. Elasticity analysis showed that, as expected, population growth rate (λ) was most sensitive to changes in adult survival, less sensitive to changes in juvenile survival, and least sensitive to changes in fecundity. A population decline could be expected with only a 6% decrease in adult survival, whereas a 32% decrease in fecundity would be necessary to bring about a population decline. These results have important implications for population management and suggest current research priorities should be shifted to a greater emphasis on survival rates and causes of mortality. PMID:26488901

Rural-Urban Differences in Cancer Incidence and Trends in the United States.

PubMed

Zahnd, Whitney E; James, Aimee S; Jenkins, Wiley D; Izadi, Sonya R; Fogleman, Amanda J; Steward, David E; Colditz, Graham A; Brard, Laurent

2017-07-27

Cancer incidence and mortality rates in the US are declining, but this decrease may not be observed in rural areas where residents are more likely to live in poverty, smoke, and forego cancer screening. However, there is limited research exploring national rural-urban differences in cancer incidence and trends. We analyzed data from the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries' public use dataset, which includes population-based cancer incidence data from 46 states. We calculated age-adjusted incidence rates, rate ratios, and annual percentage change (APC) for: all cancers combined; selected individual cancers; and cancers associated with tobacco use and human papillomavirus (HPV). Rural-urban comparisons were made by demographic, geographic, and socioeconomic characteristics for 2009 to 2013. Trends were analyzed for 1995 to 2013. Combined cancers incidence rates were generally higher in urban populations, except for the South, though the urban decline in incidence rate was greater than in rural populations (10.2% vs. 4.8%, respectively). Rural cancer disparities included higher rates of tobacco associated, HPV associated, lung and bronchus, cervical , and colorectal cancers across most population groups. Further, HPV-associated cancer incidence rates increased in rural areas (APC=0.724, p<0.05) while temporal trends remained stable in urban areas. Cancer rates associated with modifiable risks - tobacco, HPV, and some preventive screening modalities (e.g. colorectal and cervical cancers) - were higher in rural compared to urban populations. Population-based, clinical, and/or policy strategies and interventions that address these modifiable risk factors could help reduce cancer disparities experienced in rural populations. Copyright ©2017, American Association for Cancer Research.

Epidemiologic contributions to recent cancer trends among HIV-infected people in the United States.

PubMed

Robbins, Hilary A; Shiels, Meredith S; Pfeiffer, Ruth M; Engels, Eric A

2014-03-27

HIV-infected people have elevated risk for some cancers. Changing incidence of these cancers over time may reflect changes in three factors: HIV population demographic structure (e.g. age distribution), general population (background) cancer rates, and HIV-associated relative risks. We assessed the contributions of these factors to time trends for 10 cancers during 1996-2010. Population-based registry linkage study. We applied Poisson models to data from the U.S. HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study to estimate annual percentage changes (APCs) in incidence rates of AIDS-defining cancers [ADCs: Kaposi sarcoma, non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), and cervical cancer] and seven non-AIDS-defining cancers (NADCs). We evaluated HIV-infected cancer trends with and without adjustment for demographics, trends in background rates, and trends in standardized incidence ratios (SIRs, to capture relative risk). Cancer rates among HIV-infected people rose over time for anal (APC 3.8%), liver (8.5%), and prostate (9.8%) cancers, but declined for Kaposi sarcoma (1996-2000: -29.3%; 2000-2010: -7.8%), NHL (1996-2003: -15.7%; 2003-2010: -5.5%), cervical cancer (-11.1%), Hodgkin lymphoma (-4.0%), and lung cancer (-2.8%). Breast and colorectal cancer incidence did not change over time. Based on comparison to adjusted models, changing demographics contributed to trends for Kaposi sarcoma and breast, colorectal, liver, lung, and prostate cancers (all P < 0.01). Trends in background rates were notable for liver (APC 5.6%) and lung (-3.2%) cancers. SIRs declined for ADCs, Hodgkin lymphoma (APC -3.2%), and lung cancer (-4.4%). Demographic shifts influenced several cancer trends among HIV-infected individuals. Falling relative risks largely explained ADC declines, while background incidence contributed to some NADC trends.

Trends and drivers of marine debris on the Atlantic coast of the United States 1997-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ribic, C.A.; Sheavly, S.B.; Rugg, D.J.; Erdmann, Eric S.

2010-01-01

For the first time, we documented regional differences in amounts and long-term trends of marine debris along the US Atlantic coast. The Southeast Atlantic had low land-based and general-source debris loads as well as no increases despite a 19% increase in coastal population. The Northeast (8% population increase) also had low land-based and general-source debris loads and no increases. The Mid-Atlantic (10% population increase) fared the worst, with heavy land-based and general-source debris loads that increased over time. Ocean-based debris did not change in the Northeast where the fishery is relatively stable; it declined over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and was correlated with declining regional fisheries. Drivers, including human population, land use status, fishing activity, and oceanic current systems, had complex relationships with debris loads at local and regional scales. Management challenges remain undeniably large but solid information from long-term programs is one key to addressing this pressing pollution issue. ?? 2010.

Trends and drivers of marine debris on the Atlantic coast of the United States 1997-2007.

PubMed

Ribic, Christine A; Sheavly, Seba B; Rugg, David J; Erdmann, Eric S

2010-08-01

For the first time, we documented regional differences in amounts and long-term trends of marine debris along the US Atlantic coast. The Southeast Atlantic had low land-based and general-source debris loads as well as no increases despite a 19% increase in coastal population. The Northeast (8% population increase) also had low land-based and general-source debris loads and no increases. The Mid-Atlantic (10% population increase) fared the worst, with heavy land-based and general-source debris loads that increased over time. Ocean-based debris did not change in the Northeast where the fishery is relatively stable; it declined over the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast and was correlated with declining regional fisheries. Drivers, including human population, land use status, fishing activity, and oceanic current systems, had complex relationships with debris loads at local and regional scales. Management challenges remain undeniably large but solid information from long-term programs is one key to addressing this pressing pollution issue. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Presidential Address National Academy of Neuropsychology Conference Boston 2017.

PubMed

Meyers, John E

2018-05-05

This presidential address attempts to predict the future directions of neuropsychology. Predicting the future is always a difficult thing. By examining population trends such as aging and demographics, a clearer picture becomes visible. The population is getting older and more ethnically diverse. Also, examination of the spending trends in health care indicates that neuropsychology needs to be able to adapt to working with larger population-based patient care as well as individual patient care. Shifts in the demographics of neuropsychology, in that the profession previously was 70% male dominate and now is >70% female dominant are also discussed. Trends in NAN's speaker and leader demographics are examined as well as the need to stay current in the trends and latest neuropsychological research lest we become dinosaurs in the next 5-10 years. Recommendations for new neuropsychologists and post-doctoral fellows are also presented.

Population and National Development--The Dilemma of Developing Countries. Occasional Essay Number 2.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sai, Fred T.

This essay describes the relationship of population to the overall development process and is based on a special university lecture given at the London School of Hygiene in February, 1974. The contents include discussions of population trends, reasons for the population explosion, the structure of populations, development inequalities,…

Genetic diversity trend in Indian rice varieties: an analysis using SSR markers.

PubMed

Singh, Nivedita; Choudhury, Debjani Roy; Tiwari, Gunjan; Singh, Amit Kumar; Kumar, Sundeep; Srinivasan, Kalyani; Tyagi, R K; Sharma, A D; Singh, N K; Singh, Rakesh

2016-09-05

The knowledge of the extent and pattern of diversity in the crop species is a prerequisite for any crop improvement as it helps breeders in deciding suitable breeding strategies for their future improvement. Rice is the main staple crop in India with the large number of varieties released every year. Studies based on the small set of rice genotypes have reported a loss in genetic diversity especially after green revolution. However, a detailed study of the trend of diversity in Indian rice varieties is lacking. SSR markers have proven to be a marker of choice for studying the genetic diversity. Therefore, the present study was undertaken with the aim to characterize and assess trends of genetic diversity in a large set of Indian rice varieties (released between 1940-2013), conserved in the National Gene Bank of India using SSR markers. A set of 729 Indian rice varieties were genotyped using 36 HvSSR markers to assess the genetic diversity and genetic relationship. A total of 112 alleles was amplified with an average of 3.11 alleles per locus with mean Polymorphic Information Content (PIC) value of 0.29. Cluster analysis grouped these varieties into two clusters whereas the model based population structure divided them into three populations. AMOVA study based on hierarchical cluster and model based approach showed 3 % and 11 % variation between the populations, respectively. Decadal analysis for gene diversity and PIC showed increasing trend from 1940 to 2005, thereafter values for both the parameters showed decreasing trend between years 2006-2013. In contrast to this, allele number demonstrated increasing trend in these varieties released and notified between1940 to 1985, it remained nearly constant during 1986 to 2005 and again showed an increasing trend. Our results demonstrated that the Indian rice varieties harbors huge amount of genetic diversity. However, the trait based improvement program in the last decades forced breeders to rely on few parents, which resulted in loss of gene diversity during 2006 to 2013. The present study indicates the need for broadening the genetic base of Indian rice varieties through the use of diverse parents in the current breeding program.

Effects of lek count protocols on greater sage-grouse population trend estimates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monroe, Adrian; Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.

2016-01-01

Annual counts of males displaying at lek sites are an important tool for monitoring greater sage-grouse populations (Centrocercus urophasianus), but seasonal and diurnal variation in lek attendance may increase variance and bias of trend analyses. Recommendations for protocols to reduce observation error have called for restricting lek counts to within 30 minutes of sunrise, but this may limit the number of lek counts available for analysis, particularly from years before monitoring was widely standardized. Reducing the temporal window for conducting lek counts also may constrain the ability of agencies to monitor leks efficiently. We used lek count data collected across Wyoming during 1995−2014 to investigate the effect of lek counts conducted between 30 minutes before and 30, 60, or 90 minutes after sunrise on population trend estimates. We also evaluated trends across scales relevant to management, including statewide, within Working Group Areas and Core Areas, and for individual leks. To further evaluate accuracy and precision of trend estimates from lek count protocols, we used simulations based on a lek attendance model and compared simulated and estimated values of annual rate of change in population size (λ) from scenarios of varying numbers of leks, lek count timing, and count frequency (counts/lek/year). We found that restricting analyses to counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise generally did not improve precision of population trend estimates, although differences among timings increased as the number of leks and count frequency decreased. Lek attendance declined >30 minutes after sunrise, but simulations indicated that including lek counts conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise can increase the number of leks monitored compared to trend estimates based on counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. This increase in leks monitored resulted in greater precision of estimates without reducing accuracy. Increasing count frequency also improved precision. These results suggest that the current distribution of count timings available in lek count databases such as that of Wyoming (conducted up to 90 minutes after sunrise) can be used to estimate sage-grouse population trends without reducing precision or accuracy relative to trends from counts conducted within 30 minutes of sunrise. However, only 10% of all Wyoming counts in our sample (1995−2014) were conducted 61−90 minutes after sunrise, and further increasing this percentage may still bias trend estimates because of declining lek attendance. 

State-space modeling of population sizes and trends in Nihoa Finch and Millerbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorresen, P. Marcos; Brinck, Kevin W.; Camp, Richard J.; Farmer, Chris; Plentovich, Sheldon M.; Banko, Paul C.

2016-01-01

Both of the 2 passerines endemic to Nihoa Island, Hawai‘i, USA—the Nihoa Millerbird (Acrocephalus familiaris kingi) and Nihoa Finch (Telespiza ultima)—are listed as endangered by federal and state agencies. Their abundances have been estimated by irregularly implemented fixed-width strip-transect sampling from 1967 to 2012, from which area-based extrapolation of the raw counts produced highly variable abundance estimates for both species. To evaluate an alternative survey method and improve abundance estimates, we conducted variable-distance point-transect sampling between 2010 and 2014. We compared our results to those obtained from strip-transect samples. In addition, we applied state-space models to derive improved estimates of population size and trends from the legacy time series of strip-transect counts. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and occurred in all or nearly all available habitat. Population trends for Nihoa Millerbird were inconclusive because of high within-year variance. Trends for Nihoa Finch were positive, particularly since the early 1990s. Distance-based analysis of point-transect counts produced mean estimates of abundance similar to those from strip-transects but was generally more precise. However, both survey methods produced biologically unrealistic variability between years. State-space modeling of the long-term time series of abundances obtained from strip-transect counts effectively reduced uncertainty in both within- and between-year estimates of population size, and allowed short-term changes in abundance trajectories to be smoothed into a long-term trend.

Home Care and Health Reform: Changes in Home Care Utilization in One Canadian Province, 1990-2000

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Penning, Margaret J.; Brackley, Moyra E.; Allan, Diane E.

2006-01-01

Purpose: This study examines population-based trends in home care service utilization, alone and in conjunction with hospitalizations, during a period of health reform in Canada. It focuses on the extent to which observed trends suggest enhanced community-based care relative to three competing hypotheses: cost-cutting, medicalization, and…

Projections of the Population of the United States, by Age, Sex, and Race: 1983 to 2080.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spencer, Gregory

1984-01-01

Based on assumptions about fertility, mortality, and net immigration trends, statistical tables depict the future U.S. population by age, sex, and race. Figures are based on the July 1, 1982, population estimates and race definitions and are projected using the cohort-component method with alternative assumptions for future fertility, mortality,…

Sources of health insurance and characteristics of the uninsured: analysis of the March 2007 Current Population Survey.

PubMed

Fronstin, Paul

2007-10-01

This Issue Brief provides historic data through 2006 on the number and percentage of nonelderly individuals with and without health insurance. Based on EBRI estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau's March 2007 Current Population Survey (CPS), it reflects 2006 data. It also discusses trends in coverage for the 1994-2006 period and highlights characteristics that typically indicate whether an individual is insured. HEALTH COVERAGE CONTINUES DECLINE: The percentage of the nonelderly population (under age 65) with health insurance coverage continued to decline, reaching to a post-1994 low of 82.1 percent in 2006. Declines in health insurance coverage have been recorded in all but four years since 1994, when 36.5 million nonelderly individuals were uninsured; in 2006, the uninsured population was 46.5 million. EMPLOYMENT-BASED COVERAGE REMAINS DOMINANT SOURCE OF HEALTH COVERAGE: Employment-based health benefits remain by far the most common form of health coverage in the United States, consistently covering 60-70 percent of nonelderly individuals. In 2006, 62.2 percent of the nonelderly population had employment-based health benefits, as compared with 64.4 percent in 1994. Between 1994 and 2000, the percentage of the nonelderly population with employment-based coverage expanded. Since 2000, the percentage has declined. PUBLIC PROGRAM COVERAGE IS STABLE: Public-sector health coverage was slightly lower as a percentage of the population in 2006, accounting for 17.5 percent of the nonelderly population. The decline was due to a drop in the percentage of the population covered by the Tricare/CHAMPVA program. Enrollment in Medicaid and the State Children's Health Insurance Program increased, reaching 34.9 million in 2006, and covering 13.4 percent of the nonelderly population, which is significantly above the 10.5 percent level of 1999, but not far above the 12.7 percent level of 1994. INDIVIDUAL COVERAGE STABLE: Individually purchased health coverage was unchanged in 2006 and has basically hovered in the high 6 and low 7 percent range since 1994. PRIVATE- VS. PUBLIC-COVERAGE TRENDS REVERSING: Health insurance coverage generally has not sustained unbroken trends since 1994. There were crosscurrents: Employment-based coverage expanded significantly in the 1994-2000 period to exceed the growth in public programs. Subsequently, the dynamic reversed, as public programs expanded while employment-based coverage declined. It appears that 2005 might be the beginning of a new trend, where the erosion in employment-based coverage is not being offset by expansions in public programs. This may be due to the fact that, while unemployment is relatively low, the cost of providing health benefits continues to increase faster than inflation.

Time Trends in Breast Cancer Among Indian Women Population: An Analysis of Population Based Cancer Registry Data.

PubMed

Chaturvedi, Meesha; Vaitheeswaran, K; Satishkumar, K; Das, Priyanka; Stephen, S; Nandakumar, A

2015-12-01

The trends observed in cancer breast among Indian women are an indication of effect of changing lifestyle in population. To draw an appropriate inference regarding the trends of a particular type of cancer in a country, it is imperative to glance at the reliable data collected by Population Based Cancer Registries over a period of time. To give an insight of changing trends of breast cancer which have taken place over a period of time among women in Cancer Registries of India. Breast Cancer trends for invasive breast cancer in women in Indian Registries have varied during the selected period. Occurrence of breast cancers has also shown geographical variation in India. This data was collected by means of a 'Standard Core Proforma' designed by NCRP conforming to the data fields as suggested by International norms. The Proforma was filled by trained Registry workers based on interview/ hospital medical records/ supplementing data by inputs from treating surgeons/radiation oncologists/involved physicians/pathologists. The contents of the Proforma are entered into specifically created software and transmitted electronically to the coordinating center at Bangalore. The registries contributing to more number of years of data are called as older registries, while other recently established registries are called newer registries. While there has been an increase recorded in breast cancer in most of the registries, some of them have recorded an insignificant increase. Comparison of Age Adjusted Rates (AARs) among Indian Registries has been carried out after which trends observed in populations covered by Indian Registries are depicted. A variation in broad age groups of females and the proneness of females developing breast cancer over the period 1982 to 2010 has been shown. Comparisons of Indian registries with International counterparts have also been carried out. There are marked changes in incidence rates of cancer breast which have occurred in respective registries in a developing country like India. A steady increase in AARs in most of the registries of India including the newly established registries is indicative of the fact that cancer breast poses a threat to women in India.

Brazilian and Mexican experiences in the study of incipient domestication.

PubMed

Lins Neto, Ernani Machado de Freitas; Peroni, Nivaldo; Casas, Alejandro; Parra, Fabiola; Aguirre, Xitlali; Guillén, Susana; Albuquerque, Ulysses Paulino

2014-04-02

Studies of domestication enables a better understanding of human cultures, landscape changes according to peoples' purposes, and evolutionary consequences of human actions on biodiversity. This review aimed at discussing concepts, hypotheses, and current trends in studies of domestication of plants, using examples of cases studied in regions of Mesoamerica and Brazil. We analyzed trends of ethnobiological studies contributing to document processes of domestication and to establish criteria for biodiversity conservation based on traditional ecological knowledge. Based on reviewing our own and other authors' studies we analyzed management patterns and evolutionary trends associated to domestication occurring at plant populations and landscape levels. Particularly, we systematized information documenting: ethnobotanical aspects about plant management and artificial selection mechanisms, morphological consequences of plant management, population genetics of wild and managed plant populations, trends of change in reproduction systems of plants associated to management, and other ecological and physiological aspects influenced by management and domestication. Based on the analysis of study cases of 20 native species of herbs, shrubs and trees we identified similar criteria of artificial selection in different cultural contexts of Mexico and Brazil. Similar evolutionary trends were also identified in morphology (selection in favor of gigantism of useful and correlated parts); organoleptic characteristics such as taste, toxicity, color, texture; reproductive biology, mainly breeding system, phenological changes, and population genetics aspects, maintenance or increasing of genetic diversity in managed populations, high gene flow with wild relatives and low structure maintained by artificial selection. Our review is a first attempt to unify research methods for analyzing a high diversity of processes. Further research should emphasize deeper analyses of contrasting and diverse cultural and ecological contexts for a better understanding of evolution under incipient processes of domestication. Higher research effort is particularly required in Brazil, where studies on this topic are scarcer than in Mexico but where diversity of human cultures managing their also high plant resources diversity offer high potential for documenting the diversity of mechanisms of artificial selection and evolutionary trends. Comparisons and evaluations of incipient domestication in the regions studied as well as the Andean area would significantly contribute to understanding origins and diffusion of the experience of managing and domesticating plants.

Trends in risk factors for coronary heart disease in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Koopman, C; Vaartjes, I; Blokstra, A; Verschuren, W M M; Visser, M; Deeg, D J H; Bots, M L; van Dis, I

2016-08-19

Favourable trends in risk factor levels in the general population may partly explain the decline in coronary heart disease (CHD) morbidity and mortality. Our aim was to present long-term national trends in established risk factors for CHD. Data were obtained from five data sources including several large scale population based surveys, cohort studies and general practitioner registers between 1988 and 2012. We applied linear regression models to age-standardized time trends to test for statistical significant trends. Analyses were stratified by sex and age (younger <65 and older ≥65 years adults). The results demonstrated favourable trends in smoking (except in older women) and physical activity (except in older men). Unfavourable trends were found for body mass index (BMI) and diabetes mellitus prevalence. Although systolic blood pressure (SBP) and total cholesterol trends were favourable for older persons, SBP and total cholesterol remained stable in younger persons. Four out of six risk factors for CHD showed a favourable or stable trend. The rise in diabetes mellitus and BMI is worrying with respect to CHD morbidity and mortality.

Monitoring trends in HIV prevalence among young people, aged 15 to 24 years, in Manicaland, Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background In June 2001, the United Nations General Assembly Special Session (UNGASS) set a target of reducing HIV prevalence among young women and men, aged 15 to 24 years, by 25% in the worst-affected countries by 2005, and by 25% globally by 2010. We assessed progress toward this target in Manicaland, Zimbabwe, using repeated household-based population serosurvey data. We also validated the representativeness of surveillance data from young pregnant women, aged 15 to 24 years, attending antenatal care (ANC) clinics, which UNAIDS recommends for monitoring population HIV prevalence trends in this age group. Changes in socio-demographic characteristics and reported sexual behaviour are investigated. Methods Progress towards the UNGASS target was measured by calculating the proportional change in HIV prevalence among youth and young ANC attendees over three survey periods (round 1: 1998-2000; round 2: 2001-2003; and round 3: 2003-2005). The Z-score test was used to compare differences in trends between the two data sources. Characteristics of participants and trends in sexual risk behaviour were analyzed using Student's and two-tailed Z-score tests. Results HIV prevalence among youth in the general population declined by 50.7% (from 12.2% to 6.0%) from round 1 to 3. Intermediary trends showed a large decline from round 1 to 2 of 60.9% (from 12.2% to 4.8%), offset by an increase from round 2 to 3 of 26.0% (from 4.8% to 6.0%). Among young ANC attendees, the proportional decline in prevalence of 43.5% (from 17.9% to 10.1%) was similar to that in the population (test for differences in trend: p value = 0.488) although ANC data significantly underestimated the population prevalence decline from round 1 to 2 (test for difference in trend: p value = 0.003) and underestimated the increase from round 2 to 3 (test for difference in trend: p value = 0.012). Reductions in risk behaviour between rounds 1 and 2 may have been responsible for general population prevalence declines. Conclusions In Manicaland, Zimbabwe, the 2005 UNGASS target to reduce HIV prevalence by 25% was achieved. However, most prevention gains occurred before 2003. ANC surveillance trends overall were an adequate indicator of trends in the population, although lags were observed. Behaviour data and socio-demographic characteristics of participants are needed to interpret ANC trends. PMID:21609449

Pulling Apart: A State-by-State Analysis of Income Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bernstein, Jared; McNichol, Elizabeth C.; Mishel, Lawrence; Zahradnik, Robert

This report examines trends in income distribution from the late 1970s to the late 1990s in the 50 states. It is based on before-tax income for families from the Census Bureau's March Current Population Survey public use files. All figures are expressed in 1997 dollars and adjusted for inflation. The paper examines the long term trend from the…

Unusual trend in the prevalence of trisomy 13 in mothers aged 35 and older: A population based study of national congenital anomaly data.

PubMed

Nair, Deepa Balachandran; Tucker, David; Hughes, Rhian; Greenacre, Judith; Morgan, Margery

2015-07-01

Trisomy 13 is one of the three autosomal trisomies compatible with viability. It is associated with structural anomalies, learning disability and poor survival. Advanced maternal age is the most frequently suggested risk factor. This is a population based register study to investigate the temporal trends of trisomy 13. Chromosomal trisomies were reviewed by the Welsh Congenital Anomaly Register using data from 1998-2012. All pregnancy outcomes were included. Prevalence rates and trends for all cases and for cases with mothers aged below 35 years and those aged 35 years and older were plotted for trisomy 13, 18 and 21. Possible risk factors contributing to the trend in older mothers were compared in the early and late period of the study. There were 124 cases of trisomy 13 over the 15 year period with 55 mothers aged 35 years and older. Overall prevalence was 2.5 per 10,000 total births. A significant declining trend in the prevalence of trisomy 13 in mothers aged 35 and older (χ(2) trend = 4.98, p=0.026) was noted. Rates for younger mothers were lower and remained stable. Prevalence of trisomy 18 and 21 in older mothers remained stable. The unexpected declining trend in trisomy 13 in older mothers could not be explained by the risk factors examined in this study. There have been no other reports of trends in the prevalence of trisomy 13 in older mothers in recent years. There is further need for surveillance of trends in future and in other populations. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Epidemiology of Trichomoniasis in South Korea and Increasing Trend in Incidence, Health Insurance Review and Assessment 2009-2014.

PubMed

Joo, So-Young; Goo, Youn-Kyoung; Ryu, Jae-Sook; Lee, Sang-Eun; Lee, Won Kee; Chung, Dong-Il; Hong, Yeonchul

2016-01-01

Trichomoniasis, which is caused by Trichomonas vaginalis, is one of the most common non-viral sexually transmitted infections; however, limited population-based data are available that describe patterns and trends of the disease. We summarized insurance claims of trichomoniasis cases reported during 2009-2014 to South Korea Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. The average annual incidence in South Korea was 276.8 persons per 100,000 population, and a substantial sex-associated variation was observed. The incidence rate among female subjects trended upward over 6 years, that is, it increased from 501 in 2009 to 625.8 in 2014 per 100,000 female population, which indicates a 25% overall increase. This trend was sharpest in the ≥60 years group of female population. However, a 66% decrease in incidence rates was observed among male subjects (23.7 in 2009 to 15.7 in 2014 per 100,000 male population). Further, substantial decrease was observed in the ≥40 years groups of male population. The incidence of trichomoniasis varied across regions and was the highest in Jeju province of South Korea. Overall, as the incidence of trichomoniasis appears to have increased in South Korea during 2009-2014, the disease burden is increasing; hence, there is a need to better understand the disease transmission.

Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Gorresen, P.M.; Paxton, Eben H.

2016-01-01

Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

Effect of HSV-2 on population-level trends in HIV incidence in Uganda between 1990 and 2007

PubMed Central

Biraro, Samuel; Kamali, Anatoli; White, Richard; Karabarinde, Alex; Nsiimire Ssendagala, Juliet; Grosskurth, Heiner; Weiss, Helen A

2013-01-01

Objective To assess the long-term effects of population-level HSV-2 infection on HIV incidence. Methods Data from a population-based cohort in south-western Uganda were used to estimate HIV incidence from 1990 to 2007. Stored blood samples were tested for HSV-2, and the impact of HSV-2 prevalence and incidence on HIV incidence was estimated by calculating population attributable fractions (PAFs). The association between population-level annual HIV incidence and annual HSV-2 incidence/prevalence was analysed using linear regression. Results HIV incidence declined over time among men, from 8.72/1000 person-years (pyr) in 1990 to 4.85/1000 pyr in 2007 (P-trend <0.001). In contrast, there was no decline in HIV incidence among women (4.86/1000 pyr in 1990 to 6.74/1000 pyr in 2007, P-trend = 0.18). PAFs of incident HIV attributable to HSV-2 were high (60% in males; 70% in females). There was no evidence of an association between long-term trends in HIV incidence and HSV-2 prevalence or incidence. Conclusion Assuming a causal relationship, a substantial proportion of new HIV infections in this population are attributable to HSV-2. The study did not find an effect of HSV-2 prevalence/incidence on trends in HIV incidence. HIV incidence did not vary much during the study period. This may partly explain the lack of association. PMID:24016032

Impact of Rainfall, Land-Cover and Population Growth on Groundwater - A Case Study From Karnataka State, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srivastav, R. K.; Chinnapa Reddy, A. R.

2015-12-01

Recent trends in climate, land-use pattern and population has affected almost every portable water resources in the world. Due to depleting surface water and untimely distribution of precipitation, the demand to use groundwater has increased considerably. Further recent studies have shown that the groundwater stress is more in developing countries like India. This study focuses on understanding the impacts of three major factors (i.e., rainfall, land-cover and population growth) effecting the groundwater levels. For this purpose, the correlation between the trends in groundwater time series is compared with trends in rainfall, land-cover and population growth. To detect the trends in time series, two statistical methods namely, least square method and Mann-Kendall method, are adopted. The results were analyzed based on the measurements from 1800 observation wells in the Karnataka state, India. The data is obtained for a total of 9 year time period ranging from 2005 to 2013. A gridded precipitation data of 0.5o× 0.5o over the entire region is used. The change in land-cover and population data was approximately obtained from the local governing bodies. The early results show significant correlation between rainfall and groundwater time series trends. The outcomes will assess the vulnerability of groundwater levels under changing physical and hydroclimatic conditions, especially under climate change.

Trends in Cigarette Use amongst Kansas Eighth Grade Students: "Communities That Care Survey" Results, 1995-2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kingsley, David E.

This paper reports on models that clarify the meaning of trends in 8th grade smoking in one of America's most rural and least densely populated states. It is based on cross-sectional analysis of data collected in the "Kansas Communities That Care Survey" from 1995 to 1999. The analysis of trends data is presented in table form utilizing…

Modelling hen harrier dynamics to inform human-wildlife conflict resolution: a spatially-realistic, individual-based approach.

PubMed

Heinonen, Johannes P M; Palmer, Stephen C F; Redpath, Steve M; Travis, Justin M J

2014-01-01

Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions.

Modelling Hen Harrier Dynamics to Inform Human-Wildlife Conflict Resolution: A Spatially-Realistic, Individual-Based Approach

PubMed Central

Heinonen, Johannes P. M.; Palmer, Stephen C. F.; Redpath, Steve M.; Travis, Justin M. J.

2014-01-01

Individual-based models have gained popularity in ecology, and enable simultaneous incorporation of spatial explicitness and population dynamic processes to understand spatio-temporal patterns of populations. We introduce an individual-based model for understanding and predicting spatial hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) population dynamics in Great Britain. The model uses a landscape with habitat, prey and game management indices. The hen harrier population was initialised according to empirical census estimates for 1988/89 and simulated until 2030, and predictions for 1998, 2004 and 2010 were compared to empirical census estimates for respective years. The model produced a good qualitative match to overall trends between 1989 and 2010. Parameter explorations revealed relatively high elasticity in particular to demographic parameters such as juvenile male mortality. This highlights the need for robust parameter estimates from empirical research. There are clearly challenges for replication of real-world population trends, but this model provides a useful tool for increasing understanding of drivers of hen harrier dynamics and focusing research efforts in order to inform conflict management decisions. PMID:25405860

Educational Attainment in the United States: 2003. Population Characteristics. Current Population Reports. P20-550

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stoops, Nicole

2004-01-01

This report provides information on basic educational trends and attainment levels across many segments of the population. The findings are based on data collected in the 2003 Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC) to the Current Population Survey (CPS) and refer to the population 25 years and over unless otherwise specified. The population…

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

School Enrollment--Social and Economic Characteristics of Students: October 2003. Population Characteristics, P20-554

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shin, Hyon B.

2005-01-01

This report highlights school enrollment trends of the population aged 3 and older and the social and economic characteristics of the large and diverse student population, based on data collected in the Current Population Survey (CPS) conducted by the Census Bureau in October 2003. (Contains 5 figures and 5 tables.)

Trends in simulated chemical composition of global and regional population-weighted fine particulate matter over the recent 25 years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.; Martin, R.; van Donkelaar, A.; Boys, B.; Hammer, M. S.; Xu, J.; Marais, E. A.; Reff, A.; Strum, M.; Ridley, D. A.; Crippa, M.; Zhang, Q.

2017-12-01

We interpret in situ and satellite observations with a chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to understand global trends in population-weighted mean chemical composition of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) over 1989-2013. Simulated PM2.5 composition concentrations at 2˚ × 2.5˚ resolution are downscaled to 0.1˚ × 0.1˚ with satellite-based estimates of PM2.5 to better represent population exposure. Trends in simulated and observed population-weighted mean PM2.5 composition over 1989-2013 exhibit a high degree of consistency for (in situ vs. downscaled simulation) PM2.5 (-2.4 vs. -2.4 % yr-1), secondary inorganic aerosols (-4.3 vs. -4.1% yr-1), organic aerosols (OA, -3.6 vs. -3.0 % yr-1) and black carbon (-4.3 vs. -3.9 % yr-1) over North America, as well as sulfate (-4.7 vs. -5.8 % yr-1) over Europe. The downscaled simulation also has overlapping 95% confidence intervals with satellite-derived trends in population-weighted mean PM2.5 for 20 of the 21 Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) regions over 1998-2013. Over 1989-2013, most (79%) of the simulated increase in global population-weighted mean PM2.5 of 0.28 μg m-3yr-1 is explained by significantly (p < 0.05) increasing OA (0.10 μg m-3yr-1), nitrate (0.05 μg m-3yr-1), sulfate (0.04 μg m-3yr-1) and ammonium (0.03 μg m-3yr-1). These species predominantly drive trends in population-weighted mean PM2.5 over populous regions of South Asia (0.94 μg m-3yr-1), East Asia (0.66 μg m-3yr-1), Western Europe (-0.47 μg m-3yr-1) and North America (-0.32 μg m-3yr-1), primarily due to changes in anthropogenic emissions. Mineral dust from deserts and OA over open burning regions usually cause weak, insignificant trends in population-weighted mean PM2.5, despite strong inter-annual variation. Global trends in area-weighted mean PM2.5 differ significantly from population-weighted trends in both the magnitude and sign, indicating the importance of population weighting for relevance to human exposure studies. This study provides new insights into global changes in PM2.5 exposure through the recent 25 years, with particular attention given to the evolution of PM2.5 composition.

Beyond climate envelopes: effects of weather on regional population trends in butterflies.

PubMed

WallisDeVries, Michiel F; Baxter, Wendy; Van Vliet, Arnold J H

2011-10-01

Although the effects of climate change on biodiversity are increasingly evident by the shifts in species ranges across taxonomical groups, the underlying mechanisms affecting individual species are still poorly understood. The power of climate envelopes to predict future ranges has been seriously questioned in recent studies. Amongst others, an improved understanding of the effects of current weather on population trends is required. We analysed the relation between butterfly abundance and the weather experienced during the life cycle for successive years using data collected within the framework of the Dutch Butterfly Monitoring Scheme for 40 species over a 15-year period and corresponding climate data. Both average and extreme temperature and precipitation events were identified, and multiple regression was applied to explain annual changes in population indices. Significant weather effects were obtained for 39 species, with the most frequent effects associated with temperature. However, positive density-dependence suggested climatic independent trends in at least 12 species. Validation of the short-term predictions revealed a good potential for climate-based predictions of population trends in 20 species. Nevertheless, data from the warm and dry year of 2003 indicate that negative effects of climatic extremes are generally underestimated for habitat specialists in drought-susceptible habitats, whereas generalists remain unaffected. Further climatic warming is expected to influence the trends of 13 species, leading to an improvement for nine species, but a continued decline in the majority of species. Expectations from climate envelope models overestimate the positive effects of climate change in northwestern Europe. Our results underline the challenge to include population trends in predicting range shifts in response to climate change.

"Quebrando Fronteras": Trends among Latino and Latina Undergraduate Engineers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Camacho, Michelle Madsen; Lord, Susan M.

2011-01-01

Engineering, a field that has shaped the world's industrial and technological base, is ripe for an influx of Latino undergraduate students. Given U.S. Latino population increases, what is the trajectory of Latino participation in engineering education? Using an interdisciplinary lens, we critically examine Latino trends in undergraduate…

The Undereducation of American Youth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cardenas, Jose A.; And Others

Trend data show that while the numbers and proportions of undereducated youth are falling, undereducation in the eighties, especially among minority youth, is considerable and persistent. This study uses a population-based definition of undereducation for which trend data are available for Whites and Blacks, beginning in 1967, and for Hispanics in…

Temporal Trends in the Utilization of Noninvasive Diagnostic Tests for Coronary Artery Disease in Ontario Between 2008 and 2014: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Roifman, Idan; Wijeysundera, Harindra C; Austin, Peter C; Maclagan, Laura C; Rezai, Mohammad R; Wright, Graham A; Tu, Jack V

2017-02-01

The proliferation of cardiac diagnostic tests over the past few decades has received substantial attention from policymakers. However, contemporary population-based temporal trends of the utilization of noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests for coronary artery disease are not known. Our objective was to examine the temporal trends in the utilization of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI), exercise stress testing (GXT), and stress echocardiography between 2008 and 2014. We performed a population-based repeated cross-sectional study of the adult population of Ontario between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2014. Annual utilization rates of noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests were computed. For each cardiac testing modality, a negative binomial regression model was used to assess temporal changes in test utilization. GXT and MPI collectively accounted for 88% of all cardiac noninvasive diagnostic tests throughout our study period. Age- and sex-standardized rates of GXT declined from 26.7/1000 adult population to 21.6/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 3.4%; P < 0.001). MPI rates declined from 21.1/1000 adult population to 19.5/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 1.3%; P < 0.001). Although utilization rates for both CCTA and stress echocardiography increased over time, the combined rate of all available tests decreased from 50.8/1000 adult population to 49.1/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 1.1%; P < 0.001). In conclusion, utilization rates for the most prevalent noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests-GXT and MPI-declined over our study period. Furthermore, the overall test utilization rate also declined over time. We believe our findings are encouraging from a health policy perspective. Nonetheless, rising utilization rates for CCTA and stress echocardiography will need to be monitored in the future. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Top-down and bottom-up factors affecting seabird population trends in the California current system (1985-2006)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ainley, David G.; David Hyrenbach, K.

2010-03-01

To characterize the environmental factors affecting seabird population trends in the central portion of the California current system (CCS), we analyzed standardized vessel-based surveys collected during the late spring (May-June) upwelling season over 22 yr (1985-2006). We tested the working hypothesis that population trends are related to species-specific foraging ecology, and predicted that temporal variation in population size should be most extreme in diving species with higher energy expenditure during foraging. We related variation in individual species abundance (number km -2) to seasonally lagged (late winter, early spring, late spring) and concurrent ocean conditions, and to long-term trends (using a proxy variable: year) during a multi-decadal period of major fluctuations in the El Niño-Southern oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). We considered both remote (Multivariate ENSO Index, PDO) and local (coastal upwelling indices and sea-surface temperature) environmental variables as proxies for ocean productivity and prey availability. We also related seabird trends to those of potentially major trophic competitors, humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae) and blue ( Balaenoptera musculus) whales, which increased in number 4-5-fold midway during our study. Cyclical oscillations in seabird abundance were apparent in the black-footed albatross ( Phoebastria nigripes), and decreasing trends were documented for ashy storm-petrel ( Oceanodroma homochroa), pigeon guillemot ( Cepphus columbus), rhinoceros auklet ( Cerorhinca monocerata), Cassin’s auklet ( Ptychoramphus aleuticus), and western gull ( Larus occidentalis); the sooty shearwater ( Puffinus griseus), exhibited a marked decline before signs of recovery at the end of the study period. The abundance of nine other focal species varied with ocean conditions, but without decadal or long-term trends. Six of these species have the largest global populations in the CCS, and four are highly energetic, diving foragers. Furthermore, three of the diving species trends were negatively correlated with the abundance of humpback whales in the study area, a direct competitor for the same prey. Therefore, on the basis of literature reviewed, we hypothesize that the seabirds were affected by the decreasing carrying capacity of the CCS, over-exploitation of some prey stocks and interference competition from the previously exploited, but now increasing, baleen whale populations. Overall, our study highlights the complexity of the ecological factors driving seabird population trends in the highly variable and rapidly changing CCS ecosystem.

An HIV Epidemic Model Based on Viral Load Dynamics: Value in Assessing Empirical Trends in HIV Virulence and Community Viral Load

PubMed Central

Herbeck, Joshua T.; Mittler, John E.; Gottlieb, Geoffrey S.; Mullins, James I.

2014-01-01

Trends in HIV virulence have been monitored since the start of the AIDS pandemic, as studying HIV virulence informs our understanding of HIV epidemiology and pathogenesis. Here, we model changes in HIV virulence as a strictly evolutionary process, using set point viral load (SPVL) as a proxy, to make inferences about empirical SPVL trends from longitudinal HIV cohorts. We develop an agent-based epidemic model based on HIV viral load dynamics. The model contains functions for viral load and transmission, SPVL and disease progression, viral load trajectories in multiple stages of infection, and the heritability of SPVL across transmissions. We find that HIV virulence evolves to an intermediate level that balances infectiousness with longer infected lifespans, resulting in an optimal SPVL∼4.75 log10 viral RNA copies/mL. Adaptive viral evolution may explain observed HIV virulence trends: our model produces SPVL trends with magnitudes that are broadly similar to empirical trends. With regard to variation among studies in empirical SPVL trends, results from our model suggest that variation may be explained by the specific epidemic context, e.g. the mean SPVL of the founding lineage or the age of the epidemic; or improvements in HIV screening and diagnosis that results in sampling biases. We also use our model to examine trends in community viral load, a population-level measure of HIV viral load that is thought to reflect a population's overall transmission potential. We find that community viral load evolves in association with SPVL, in the absence of prevention programs such as antiretroviral therapy, and that the mean community viral load is not necessarily a strong predictor of HIV incidence. PMID:24945322

Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands.

PubMed

Dunn, Michael J; Jackson, Jennifer A; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S; Briggs, Dirk R; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M

2016-01-01

We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual increase in gentoo breeding pairs.

Population Size and Decadal Trends of Three Penguin Species Nesting at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands

PubMed Central

Dunn, Michael J.; Jackson, Jennifer A.; Adlard, Stacey; Lynnes, Amanda S.; Briggs, Dirk R.; Fox, Derren; Waluda, Claire M.

2016-01-01

We report long-term changes in population size of three species of sympatrically breeding pygoscelid penguins: Adélie (Pygoscelis adeliae), chinstrap (Pygoscelis antarctica) and gentoo (Pygoscelis papua ellsworthii) over a 38 year period at Signy Island, South Orkney Islands, based on annual counts from selected colonies and decadal all-island systematic counts of occupied nests. Comparing total numbers of breeding pairs over the whole island from 1978/79 to 2015/16 revealed varying fortunes: gentoo penguin pairs increased by 255%, (3.5% per annum), chinstrap penguins declined by 68% (-3.6% per annum) and Adélie penguins declined by 42% (-1.5% per annum). The chinstrap population has declined steadily over the last four decades. In contrast, Adélie and gentoo penguins have experienced phases of population increase and decline. Annual surveys of selected chinstrap and Adélie colonies produced similar trends from those revealed by island-wide surveys, allowing total island population trends to be inferred relatively well. However, while the annual colony counts of chinstrap and Adélie penguins showed a trend consistent in direction with the results from all-island surveys, the magnitude of estimated population change was markedly different between colony wide and all island counts. Annual population patterns suggest that pair numbers in the study areas partly reflect immigration and emigration of nesting birds between different parts of the island. Breeding success for all three species remained broadly stable over time in the annually monitored colonies. Breeding success rates in gentoo and chinstrap penguins were strongly correlated, despite the differing trends in population size. This study shows the importance of effective, standardised monitoring to accurately determine long-term population trajectories. Our results indicate significant declines in the Adélie and chinstrap penguin populations at Signy Island over the last five decades, and a gradual increase in gentoo breeding pairs. PMID:27783668

Brazilian and Mexican experiences in the study of incipient domestication

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background Studies of domestication enables a better understanding of human cultures, landscape changes according to peoples’ purposes, and evolutionary consequences of human actions on biodiversity. This review aimed at discussing concepts, hypotheses, and current trends in studies of domestication of plants, using examples of cases studied in regions of Mesoamerica and Brazil. We analyzed trends of ethnobiological studies contributing to document processes of domestication and to establish criteria for biodiversity conservation based on traditional ecological knowledge. Methods Based on reviewing our own and other authors’ studies we analyzed management patterns and evolutionary trends associated to domestication occurring at plant populations and landscape levels. Particularly, we systematized information documenting: ethnobotanical aspects about plant management and artificial selection mechanisms, morphological consequences of plant management, population genetics of wild and managed plant populations, trends of change in reproduction systems of plants associated to management, and other ecological and physiological aspects influenced by management and domestication. Results Based on the analysis of study cases of 20 native species of herbs, shrubs and trees we identified similar criteria of artificial selection in different cultural contexts of Mexico and Brazil. Similar evolutionary trends were also identified in morphology (selection in favor of gigantism of useful and correlated parts); organoleptic characteristics such as taste, toxicity, color, texture; reproductive biology, mainly breeding system, phenological changes, and population genetics aspects, maintenance or increasing of genetic diversity in managed populations, high gene flow with wild relatives and low structure maintained by artificial selection. Our review is a first attempt to unify research methods for analyzing a high diversity of processes. Further research should emphasize deeper analyses of contrasting and diverse cultural and ecological contexts for a better understanding of evolution under incipient processes of domestication. Conclusion Higher research effort is particularly required in Brazil, where studies on this topic are scarcer than in Mexico but where diversity of human cultures managing their also high plant resources diversity offer high potential for documenting the diversity of mechanisms of artificial selection and evolutionary trends. Comparisons and evaluations of incipient domestication in the regions studied as well as the Andean area would significantly contribute to understanding origins and diffusion of the experience of managing and domesticating plants. PMID:24694009

Epidemiology of Trichomoniasis in South Korea and Increasing Trend in Incidence, Health Insurance Review and Assessment 2009-2014

PubMed Central

Joo, So-Young; Goo, Youn-Kyoung; Ryu, Jae-Sook; Lee, Sang-Eun; Lee, Won Kee; Chung, Dong-Il; Hong, Yeonchul

2016-01-01

Trichomoniasis, which is caused by Trichomonas vaginalis, is one of the most common non-viral sexually transmitted infections; however, limited population-based data are available that describe patterns and trends of the disease. We summarized insurance claims of trichomoniasis cases reported during 2009–2014 to South Korea Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service. The average annual incidence in South Korea was 276.8 persons per 100,000 population, and a substantial sex-associated variation was observed. The incidence rate among female subjects trended upward over 6 years, that is, it increased from 501 in 2009 to 625.8 in 2014 per 100,000 female population, which indicates a 25% overall increase. This trend was sharpest in the ≥60 years group of female population. However, a 66% decrease in incidence rates was observed among male subjects (23.7 in 2009 to 15.7 in 2014 per 100,000 male population). Further, substantial decrease was observed in the ≥40 years groups of male population. The incidence of trichomoniasis varied across regions and was the highest in Jeju province of South Korea. Overall, as the incidence of trichomoniasis appears to have increased in South Korea during 2009–2014, the disease burden is increasing; hence, there is a need to better understand the disease transmission. PMID:27936227

California's Demographic Future. A Rand Note.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCarthy, Kevin F.; Valdez, R. Burciaga

California's image as the Golden State is based largely on its rapid population and economic growth. However, recent trends show an aging population, a decline in population growth, a reduction in the number of migrants from other states, and a dramatic increase in foreign-born residents. Since 1960, the state's growth rate has slowed…

rSPACE: Spatially based power analysis for conservation and ecology

Treesearch

Martha M. Ellis; Jacob S. Ivan; Jody M. Tucker; Michael K. Schwartz

2015-01-01

1.) Power analysis is an important step in designing effective monitoring programs to detect trends in plant or animal populations. Although project goals often focus on detecting changes in population abundance, logistical constraints may require data collection on population indices, such as detection/non-detection data for occupancy estimation. 2.) We describe the...

School Enrollment in the United States: 2006. Population Characteristics. Current Population Reports

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Jessica W.; Bauman, Kurt J.

2008-01-01

This report discusses school enrollment levels and trends in the population aged 3 and older based on data collected in 2006 by the U.S. Census Bureau in the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS). Historically, the CPS has been the only data source used to produce school enrollment reports. This is the first…

Emerging landscape degradation trends in the East African Horn

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pricope, N. G.; Michaelsen, J.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2012-12-01

Increasing climate variability along with declining trends in rainfall represent major risk factors affecting food security in many regions of the world. We identify Africa-wide regions where significant rainfall decreases from 1979-2011 are coupled with significant human population density increases. The rangelands of the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions with significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Widespread vegetation degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using MODIS land cover and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data collected since 2000, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade across the East African Horn and demonstrate that these two products can be used concurrently at large spatial scales to monitor vegetation dynamics at decadal time scales. Results demonstrate that a near doubling of the population in pastoral regions is linked with hotspots of degradation in vegetation condition. The most significant land cover change and browning trends are observed in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting and for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.Fig.1(a)Change in standardized precipitation index in Africa between 1979-2010 (b)Change in population density at continental scale using the GRUMPv1 1990 and 2000 and AfriPop 2010 population density datasets Fig.2 Land cover change trajectories based on 2001-2009 MOD12Q1 Land Cover product for the East African Horn overlaid over aggregated FEWS Net Livelihoods Zones.

Trends in cytoreductive surgery and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy for the treatment of synchronous peritoneal carcinomatosis of colorectal origin in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Razenberg, L G E M; van Gestel, Y R B M; Creemers, G-J; Verwaal, V J; Lemmens, V E P P; de Hingh, I H J T

2015-04-01

Population-based data on the percentage of colorectal cancer (CRC) patients with synchronous peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) being treated with cytoreductive surgery (CRS) and hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (HIPEC) are currently lacking. The current population-based study describes trends in the use of CRS-HIPEC in the Netherlands, one of the first countries where CRS and HIPEC was introduced. All patients diagnosed with synchronous PC of CRC between 2005 and 2012 were extracted from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (n = 4623). Patients with primary appendiceal cancer were excluded resulting in a study population of 4430 patients. Trends in the use of CRS-HIPEC over time were analyzed by means of a Cochrane-Armitage trend test. Survival proportions were calculated as the time between diagnosis and date of death or last follow-up (January 2014). Of the total 4430 patients with synchronous PC, 297 (6.4%) underwent treatment with CRS-HIPEC. The proportion of colorectal PC patients receiving CRS-HIPEC increased significantly over time from 3.6% in 2005-2006 to 9.7% in 2011-2012 (p < 0.0001). Overall median survival (MS) for patients treated with CRS-HIPEC was 32.3 months, whereas MS rates were respectively 12.6, 6.1 and 1.5 for months palliative chemotherapy with/without surgery, palliative surgery and best supportive care. The proportion of patients diagnosed with synchronous PC from CRC treated with CRS-HIPEC has increased significantly over time and currently almost 10% of PC patients are treated with CRS-HIPEC. Median survival in this population based group is 32.3 months. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Unintentional injury mortality among indigenous communities of Taiwan: trends from 2002 to 2013 and evaluation of a community-based intervention.

PubMed

Pan, Stephen W; Chong, Hiu Ha; Kao, Hui-Chuan

2017-11-27

Indigenous communities in Taiwan shoulder a disproportionate burden of unintentional injury fatalities. We compare unintentional injury mortality rate trends among Taiwan's indigenous communities and the general population from 2002 to 2013, and evaluate potential impact of a community-based injury prevention programme on indigenous unintentional injury death rates. Standardised and crude unintentional injury mortality rates were obtained from Taiwan government reports. Segmented linear regression was used to estimate and compare unintentional injury mortality rate trends before and after the intervention. Between 2002 and 2013, unintentional injury mortality rates among Taiwan's indigenous population significantly declined by about 4.5 deaths per 100 000 each year (p<0.0001). During that time, the unintentional injury mortality rate ratio between indigenous Taiwanese and the general population significantly decreased by approximately 1% each successive year (p=0.02). However, we were unable to detect evidence that the 'Healthy and Safe Tribe' programme was associated with a statistically significant decrease in the unintentional injury mortality rate trend among indigenous persons (p=0.81). Taiwanese indigenous communities remain at significantly higher risk of unintentional injury death, though the gap may be slowly narrowing. We found no evidence that the 'Healthy and Safe Tribe' indigenous injury-prevention programme significantly contributed to the nationwide decline in unintentional injury mortality among indigenous Taiwanese communities from 2009 to 2013. Future interventions to address the disproportionate burden of unintentional injury fatalities among indigenous Taiwanese should consider interventions with wider coverage of the indigenous population, and complementing grass roots led community-based interventions with structural policy interventions as well. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Temporal and geographic patterns in population trends of brown-headed cowbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Schwarz, S.

2000-01-01

The temporal and geographic patterns in the population trends of Brown-headed Cowbirds are summarized from the North American Breeding Bird Survey. During 1966-1992, the survey-wide population declined significantly, a result of declining populations in the Eastern BBS Region, southern Great Plains, and the Pacific coast states. Increasing populations were most evident in the northern Great Plains. Cowbird populations were generally stable or increasing during 1966-1976, but their trends became more negative after 1976. The trends in cowbird populations were generally directly correlated with the trends of both host and nonhost species, suggesting that large-scale factors such as changing weather patterns, land use practices, or habitat availability were responsible for the observed temporal and geographic patterns in the trends of cowbirds and their hosts.

The global coastline dataset: the observed relation between erosion and sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Donchyts, G.; Baart, F.; Luijendijk, A.; Hagenaars, G.

2017-12-01

Erosion of sandy coasts is considered one of the key risks of sea-level rise. Because sandy coastlines of the world are often highly populated, erosive coastline trends result in risk to populations and infrastructure. Most of our understanding of the relation between sea-level rise and coastal erosion is based on local or regional observations and generalizations of numerical and physical experiments. Until recently there was no reliable global scale assessment of the location of sandy coasts and their rate of erosion and accretion. Here we present the global coastline dataset that covers erosion indicators on a local scale with global coverage. The dataset uses our global coastline transects grid defined with an alongshore spacing of 250 m and a cross shore length extending 1 km seaward and 1 km landward. This grid matches up with pre-existing local grids where available. We present the latest results on validation of coastal-erosion trends (based on optical satellites) and classification of sandy versus non-sandy coasts. We show the relation between sea-level rise (based both on tide-gauges and multi-mission satellite altimetry) and observed erosion trends over the last decades, taking into account broken-coastline trends (for example due to nourishments).An interactive web application presents the publicly-accessible results using a backend based on Google Earth Engine. It allows both researchers and stakeholders to use objective estimates of coastline trends, particularly when authoritative sources are not available.

Recent Trends in Diabetes Knowledge, Perceptions, and Behaviors: Implications for National Diabetes Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piccinino, Linda; Griffey, Susan; Gallivan, Joanne; Lotenberg, Lynne Doner; Tuncer, Diane

2015-01-01

Objectives: Examine trends in diabetes-related knowledge, perceptions, and behavior among U.S. adults with and without a diagnosis of diabetes and among subpopulations at risk. Discuss implications for national diabetes education and for the National Diabetes Education Program (NDEP) in particular. Methods: Three population-based NDEP National…

Monitoring Butterfly Abundance: Beyond Pollard Walks

PubMed Central

Pellet, Jérôme; Bried, Jason T.; Parietti, David; Gander, Antoine; Heer, Patrick O.; Cherix, Daniel; Arlettaz, Raphaël

2012-01-01

Most butterfly monitoring protocols rely on counts along transects (Pollard walks) to generate species abundance indices and track population trends. It is still too often ignored that a population count results from two processes: the biological process (true abundance) and the statistical process (our ability to properly quantify abundance). Because individual detectability tends to vary in space (e.g., among sites) and time (e.g., among years), it remains unclear whether index counts truly reflect population sizes and trends. This study compares capture-mark-recapture (absolute abundance) and count-index (relative abundance) monitoring methods in three species (Maculinea nausithous and Iolana iolas: Lycaenidae; Minois dryas: Satyridae) in contrasted habitat types. We demonstrate that intraspecific variability in individual detectability under standard monitoring conditions is probably the rule rather than the exception, which questions the reliability of count-based indices to estimate and compare specific population abundance. Our results suggest that the accuracy of count-based methods depends heavily on the ecology and behavior of the target species, as well as on the type of habitat in which surveys take place. Monitoring programs designed to assess the abundance and trends in butterfly populations should incorporate a measure of detectability. We discuss the relative advantages and inconveniences of current monitoring methods and analytical approaches with respect to the characteristics of the species under scrutiny and resources availability. PMID:22859980

Changes in size and trends of North American sea duck populations associated with North Pacific oceanic regime shifts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Paul L.

2013-01-01

Broad-scale multi-species declines in populations of North American sea ducks for unknown reasons is cause for management concern. Oceanic regime shifts have been associated with rapid changes in ecosystem structure of the North Pacific and Bering Sea. However, relatively little is known about potential effects of these changes in oceanic conditions on marine bird populations at broad scales. I examined changes in North American breeding populations of sea ducks from 1957 to 2011 in relation to potential oceanic regime shifts in the North Pacific in 1977, 1989, and 1998. There was strong support for population-level effects of regime shifts in 1977 and 1989, but little support for an effect of the 1998 shift. The continental-level effects of these regime shifts differed across species groups and time. Based on patterns of sea duck population dynamics associated with regime shifts, it is unclear if the mechanism of change relates to survival or reproduction. Results of this analysis support the hypothesis that population size and trends of North American sea ducks are strongly influenced by oceanic conditions. The perceived population declines appear to have halted >20 years ago, and populations have been relatively stable or increasing since that time. Given these results, we should reasonably expect dramatic changes in sea duck population status and trends with future oceanic regime shifts.

Illicit drug use is increasing among non-medical users of prescription drugs-Results from population-based surveys 2002-2014.

PubMed

Karjalainen, Karoliina; Lintonen, Tomi; Hakkarainen, Pekka

2017-09-01

Non-medical use of prescription drugs (NMUPD) is known to be associated with illicit drug use, but less is known about how illicit drug use has changed in NMUPD. We examined (1) the changes in illicit drug use among Finnish non-medical users of prescription drugs during the 2000s and (2) whether the trends of illicit drug use differ by non-medical use of prescription drugs in the general population. Data were derived from population-based (aged 15-69) Drug Surveys conducted in Finland in 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014. The response rates varied between 63% and 48%. NMUPD during the last year was measured (n=252). Past-year illicit drug use among non-medical users of prescription drugs and the reference population not reporting NMUPD (n=10,967) was compared. Logistic regression was used to estimate the p-values for trends. Illicit drug use has increased notably among Finnish non-medical users of prescription drugs (from 21% to 70%, p for trend<0.001). This was not explained by the respondents' gender, age, employment status or alcohol use. Among the reference population, illicit drug use also increased statistically significantly, but much more moderately (from 2.5% to 5.4%). The difference between the trends was confirmed by an interaction test (p=0.022). NMUPD seems to be increasingly merging with illicit drug use. This indicates an increasing prevalence of polydrug use among non-medical users of prescription drugs, which may bring about more severe harms and worse health outcomes for users and more challenges in regard to treatment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An analysis of population and social change in London wards in the 1980s.

PubMed

Congdon, P

1989-01-01

"This paper discusses the estimation and projection of small area populations in London, [England] and considers trends in intercensal social and demographic indices which can be calculated using these estimates. Information available annually on vital statistics and electorates is combined with detailed data from the Census Small Area Statistics to derive demographic component based population estimates for London's electoral wards over five year periods. The availability of age disaggregated population estimates permits derivation of small area social indicators for intercensal years, for example, of unemployment and mortality. Trends in spatial inequality of such indicators during the 1980s are analysed and point to continuing wide differentials. A typology of population and social indicators gives an indication of the small area distribution of the recent population turnaround in inner London, and of its association with other social processes such as gentrification and ethnic concentration." excerpt

Ischaemic heart disease mortality in Serbia, 1991-2013; a joinpoint analysis

PubMed Central

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2017-01-01

Background & objectives: Ischaemic heart disease (IHD) has been one of the leading causes of mortality in the world. In many European countries the mortality rates due to IHD have been rising rapidly. This study was aimed to assess the IHD mortality trend in Serbia. Methods: A population-based cross-sectional study analyzing IHD mortality in Serbia in the period 1991-2013 was carried out based on official data. The age-standardized rates (ASRs, per 100,000) were calculated using the direct method, according to the European standard population. Joinpoint analysis was used to estimate the average annual percentage change (AAPC) with the corresponding 95 per cent confidence interval (CI). Results: More than 253,000 people (143,420 men and 110,276 women) died due to IHD in Serbia during the observed period, and most of them (over 160,000 people) were patients with myocardial infarction (MI). Average annual ASR for IHD was 113.6/100,000. There was no overall significant trend for mortality due to IHD (AAPC=+0.1%, 95% CI −0.8-1.0), but there was one joinpoint: the trend significantly increased by +2.3 per cent per year from 1991 to 2006 and then significantly decreased by −6.4 per cent from 2006 to onwards. Significantly decreased mortality trends for MI in both genders were observed: according to the comparability test, mortality trends in men and women were parallel (final selected model failed to reject parallelism, P=0.0567). Interpretation & conclusions: No significant trend for mortality due to IHD was observed in Serbia during the study period. The substantial decline of mortality from IHD seen in most developed countries during the past decades was not observed in Serbia. Further efforts are required to reduce mortality from IHD in Serbian population. PMID:29664033

Greater sage-grouse population trends across Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Edmunds, David; Aldridge, Cameron L.; O'Donnell, Michael; Monroe, Adrian

2018-01-01

The scale at which analyses are performed can have an effect on model results and often one scale does not accurately describe the ecological phenomena of interest (e.g., population trends) for wide-ranging species: yet, most ecological studies are performed at a single, arbitrary scale. To best determine local and regional trends for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming, USA, we modeled density-independent and -dependent population growth across multiple spatial scales relevant to management and conservation (Core Areas [habitat encompassing approximately 83% of the sage-grouse population on ∼24% of surface area in Wyoming], local Working Groups [7 regional areas for which groups of local experts are tasked with implementing Wyoming's statewide sage-grouse conservation plan at the local level], Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) by Working Groups, and Core Areas by Working Groups). Our goal was to determine the influence of fine-scale population trends (Core Areas) on larger-scale populations (Working Group Areas). We modeled the natural log of change in population size ( peak M lek counts) by time to calculate the finite rate of population growth (λ) for each population of interest from 1993 to 2015. We found that in general when Core Area status (Core Area vs. Non-Core Area) was investigated by Working Group Area, the 2 populations trended similarly and agreed with the overall trend of the Working Group Area. However, at the finer scale where Core Areas were analyzed separately, Core Areas within the same Working Group Area often trended differently and a few large Core Areas could influence the overall Working Group Area trend and mask trends occurring in smaller Core Areas. Relatively close fine-scale populations of sage-grouse can trend differently, indicating that large-scale trends may not accurately depict what is occurring across the landscape (e.g., local effects of gas and oil fields may be masked by increasing larger populations). 

Some Current Population Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taeuber, Conrad

Population trends in the 1960's and early 1970's are examined in this 1972 speech in terms of overall national trends, the growth of metropolitan areas, the rural population, geographic shifts, internal migration, the black population, and living arrangements. It is noted that population growth in the 1960's was unevenly distributed within age…

[Current status and trends in the health of the Moscow population].

PubMed

Tishuk, E A; Plavunov, N F; Soboleva, N P

1997-01-01

Based on vast comprehensive medical statistical database, the authors analyze the health status of the population and the efficacy of public health service in Moscow. The pre-crisis tendencies and the modern status of public health under modern socioeconomic conditions are noted.

Understanding Differences in the Body Burden–Age Relationships of Bioaccumulating Contaminants Based on Population Cross Sections versus Individuals

PubMed Central

Quinn, Cristina L.

2012-01-01

Background: Body burdens of persistent bioaccumulative contaminants estimated from the cross-sectional biomonitoring of human populations are often plotted against age. Such relationships have previously been assumed to reflect the role of age in bioaccumulation. Objectives: We used a mechanistic modeling approach to reproduce concentration-versus-age relationships and investigate factors that influence them. Method: CoZMoMAN is an environmental fate and human food chain bioaccumulation model that estimates time trends in human body burdens in response to time-variant environmental emissions. Trends of polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congener 153 concentrations versus age for population cross sections were estimated using simulated longitudinal data for individual women born at different times. The model was also used to probe the influence of partitioning and degradation properties, length of emissions, and model assumptions regarding lipid content and liver metabolism on concentration–age trends of bioaccumulative and persistent contaminants. Results: Body burden–age relationships for population cross sections and individuals over time are not equivalent. The time lapse between the peak in emissions and sample collection for biomonitoring is the most influential factor controlling the shape of concentration–age trends for chemicals with human metabolic half-lives longer than 1 year. Differences in observed concentration–age trends for PCBs and polybrominated diphenyl ethers are consistent with differences in emission time trends and human metabolic half-lives. Conclusions: Bioaccumulation does not monotonically increase with age. Our model suggests that the main predictors of cross-sectional body burden trends with age are the amount of time elapsed after peak emissions and the human metabolic and environmental degradation rates. PMID:22472302

GEO Collisional Risk Assessment Based on Analysis of NASA-WISE Data and Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Howard, S.; Murray-Krezan, J.; Dao, P.; Surka, D.

From December 2009 thru 2011 the NASA Wide-Field Infrared Survey Explorer (WISE) gathered radiometrically exquisite measurements of debris in near Earth orbits, substantially augmenting the current catalog of known debris. The WISE GEO-belt debris population adds approximately 2,000 previously uncataloged objects. This paper describes characterization of the WISE GEO-belt orbital debris population in terms of location, epoch, and size. The WISE GEO-belt debris population characteristics are compared with the publically available U.S. catalog and previous descriptions of the GEO-belt debris population. We found that our results differ from previously published debris distributions, suggesting the need for updates to collision probability models and a better measurement-based understanding of the debris population. Previous studies of collisional rate in GEO invoke the presence of a large number of debris in the regime of sizes too small to track, i.e. not in the catalog, but large enough to cause significant damage and fragmentation in a collision. A common approach is to estimate that population of small debris by assuming that it is dominated by fragments and therefore should follow trends observed in fragmentation events or laboratory fragmentation tests. In other words, the population of debris can be extrapolated from trackable sizes to small sizes using an empirically determined trend of population as a function of size. We use new information suggested by the analysis of WISE IR measurements to propose an updated relationship. Our trend is an improvement because we expect that an IR emissive signature is a more reliable indicator of physical size. Based on the revised relationship, we re-estimate the total collisional rate in the GEO belt with the inclusion of projected uncatalogued debris and applying a conjunction assessment technique. Through modeling, we evaluate the hot spots near the geopotential wells and the effects of fragmentation in the GEO graveyard to the collision with GEO objects.

Modelling Future Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in the United States: National Trends and Racial and Ethnic Disparities

PubMed Central

Pearson-Stuttard, Jonathan; Guzman-Castillo, Maria; Penalvo, Jose L.; Rehm, Colin D.; Afshin, Ashkan; Danaei, Goodarz; Kypridemos, Chris; Gaziano, Tom; Mozaffarian, Dariush; Capewell, Simon; O’Flaherty, Martin

2016-01-01

Background Accurate forecasting of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is crucial to guide policy and programming efforts. Prior forecasts have often not incorporated past trends in rates of reduction in CVD mortality. This creates uncertainties about future trends in CVD mortality and disparities. Methods and Results To forecast US CVD mortality and disparities to 2030, we developed a hierarchical Bayesian model to determine and incorporate prior age, period and cohort (APC) effects from 1979–2012, stratified by age, gender and race; which we combined with expected demographic shifts to 2030. Data sources included the National Vital Statistics System, SEER single year population estimates, and US Bureau of Statistics 2012 National Population projections. We projected coronary disease and stroke deaths to 2030, first based on constant APC effects at 2012 values, as most commonly done (conventional); and then using more rigorous projections incorporating expected trends in APC effects (trend-based). We primarily evaluated absolute mortality. The conventional model projected total coronary and stroke deaths by 2030 to increase by approximately 18% (67,000 additional coronary deaths/year) and 50% (64,000 additional stroke deaths/year). Conversely, the trend-based model projected that coronary mortality would fall by 2030 by approximately 27% (79,000 fewer deaths/year); and stroke mortality would remain unchanged (200 fewer deaths/year). Health disparities will be improved in stroke deaths, but not coronary deaths. Conclusions After accounting for prior mortality trends and expected demographic shifts, total US coronary deaths are expected to decline, while stroke mortality will remain relatively constant. Health disparities in stroke, but not coronary, deaths will be improved but not eliminated. These APC approaches offer more plausible predictions than conventional estimates. PMID:26846769

Epidemiology of Polymyalgia Rheumatica 2000-2014 and Examination of Incidence and Survival Trends Over 45 Years: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Raheel, Shafay; Shbeeb, Izzat; Crowson, Cynthia S; Matteson, Eric L

2017-08-01

To determine time trends in the incidence and survival of polymyalgia rheumatica (PMR) over a 15-year period in Olmsted County, Minnesota, and to examine trends in incidence of PMR in the population by comparing this time period to a previous incidence cohort from the same population base. All cases of incident PMR among Olmsted County, Minnesota residents in 2000-2014 were identified to extend the previous 1970-1999 cohort. Detailed review of all individual medical records was performed. Incidence rates were age- and sex-adjusted to the US white 2010 population. Survival rates were compared with the expected rates in the population of Minnesota. There were 377 incident cases of PMR during the 15-year study period. Of these, 64% were female and the mean age at incidence was 74.1 years. The overall age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence of PMR was 63.9 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 57.4-70.4) per 100,000 population ages ≥50 years. Incidence rates increased with age in both sexes, but incidence fell after age 80 years. There was a slight increase in incidence of PMR in the recent time period compared to 1970-1999 (P = 0.063). Mortality among individuals with PMR was not significantly worse than that expected in the general population (standardized mortality ratio 0.70 [95% CI 0.57-0.85]). The incidence of PMR has increased slightly in the past 15 years compared to previous decades. Survivorship in patients with PMR is not worse than in the general population. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

Trends in Prevalence and Characteristics of Cerebral Palsy among Icelandic Children Born 1990 to 2003

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sigurdardottir, Solveig; Thorkelsson, Thordur; Halldorsdottir, Margret; Thorarensen, OLafur; Vik, Torstein

2009-01-01

Aim: To describe trends in cerebral palsy (CP) prevalence, severity, and associated impairments among 139 Icelandic children (65 males, 74 females) born from 1990 to 1996 (period one) and 1997 to 2003 (period two). Method: A population-based study using systematically collected data on motor functioning and associated impairments of children with…

Use of Nutritional Information in Canada: National Trends between 2004 and 2008

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goodman, Samantha; Hammond, David; Pillo-Blocka, Francy; Glanville, Theresa; Jenkins, Richard

2011-01-01

Objective: To examine longitudinal trends in use of nutrition information among Canadians. Design: Population-based telephone and Internet surveys. Setting and Participants: Representative samples of Canadian adults recruited with random-digit dialing sampling in 2004 (n = 2,405) and 2006 (n = 2,014) and an online commercial panel in 2008 (n =…

Recent and prospective population trends in Malaysia.

PubMed

Jones, G W; Tan, P C

1985-09-01

Recent population trends in Malaysia are reviewed, with the focus on Peninsular Malaysia. Separate consideration is given to population growth between 1970 and 1980; mortality trends; period and cohort fertility trends; factors affecting fertility, including changes in age structure, nuptiality, and other socioeconomic and demographic changes; and the recent development of a pro-natalist policy involving a goal of a population of 70 million by 2050.

The differential impact of the financial crisis on Health in Ireland and Greece: A quasi-experimental approach

PubMed Central

Hessel, P; Vandoros, S; Avendano, M

2015-01-01

Objectives Greece and Ireland suffered an economic recession of similar magnitude, but whether their health has deteriorated as a result has not yet been well established. Study design Based on five waves (2006-2010) of the European Union Statistics of Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) survey we implemented a difference-in-differences (DID) approach that compared trends in self-rated health in Greece and Ireland before and after the crisis with trends in a control population (Poland) that did not experience a recession and had health trends comparable to both countries before the crisis. Methods Logistic regression using a difference-in-differences (DID) approach. Results A simple examination of trends suggests that there was no significant change in health in Greece or Ireland following the onset of the financial crisis. However, DID estimates that incorporated a control population suggest an increase in the prevalence of poor-self rated health in Greece (OR=1.216; CI=1.11 - 1.32). Effects were most pronounced for older individuals and those living in high-density areas, but effects in Greece were overwhelmingly consistent in different population sub-groups. In contrast, DID estimates revealed no effect of the financial crisis in Ireland (OR=0.97; CI=0.81-1.16). Conclusions Contradicting results from a simple comparison of single-country trends, DID estimates suggest that the financial crisis has led to deterioration of population health trends in Greece but not in Ireland, where policies may have prevented a worsening of health as a result of the recent economic crisis. PMID:25369355

Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations, New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs.

The United Nations (UN) Population Division monitors fertility, mortality, and migration trends for all countries as a basis for producing the official UN population estimates and projections. Among recent demographic trends, two are prominent: (1) population decline and (2) population aging. Focusing on these two critical trends, a study…

Hierarchical modeling of population stability and species group attributes from survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.

2002-01-01

Many ecological studies require analysis of collections of estimates. For example, population change is routinely estimated for many species from surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), and the species are grouped and used in comparative analyses. We developed a hierarchical model for estimation of group attributes from a collection of estimates of population trend. The model uses information from predefined groups of species to provide a context and to supplement data for individual species; summaries of group attributes are improved by statistical methods that simultaneously analyze collections of trend estimates. The model is Bayesian; trends are treated as random variables rather than fixed parameters. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to fit the model. Standard assessments of population stability cannot distinguish magnitude of trend and statistical significance of trend estimates, but the hierarchical model allows us to legitimately describe the probability that a trend is within given bounds. Thus we define population stability in terms of the probability that the magnitude of population change for a species is less than or equal to a predefined threshold. We applied the model to estimates of trend for 399 species from the BBS to estimate the proportion of species with increasing populations and to identify species with unstable populations. Analyses are presented for the collection of all species and for 12 species groups commonly used in BBS summaries. Overall, we estimated that 49% of species in the BBS have positive trends and 33 species have unstable populations. However, the proportion of species with increasing trends differs among habitat groups, with grassland birds having only 19% of species with positive trend estimates and wetland birds having 68% of species with positive trend estimates.

Trend in distribution of primary health care professionals in Jiangsu province of eastern China.

PubMed

Xu, Kang; Zhang, Kaijin; Wang, Dan; Zhou, Ling

2014-11-28

Since the late 1990 s, the Chinese government has carried out several reforms on the primary health care, which is greatly improved but still left much to be desired, especially for the health workforces. The aim of this study was to analyze the number of health workforces and the trends in distribution of health workforces in Jiangsu province of eastern China from 2008 to 2012. The time trends in number and distribution of health professionals were compared in study period. Lorenz curves were plotted and Gini coefficient, Atkinson index and Theil index were calculated for inequalities in the distribution of health workforces to population and area. The number of health workforces increased every year and the inequality in the distribution of health workforces showed a decline trend from 2008 to 2012. After 2009, these trends changed more rapidly. There was the disproportionality between physicians and nurses. The values of three inequality indicators based on area were larger than those based on population. The health reform in 2009 might play an important role in increasing the number of health workforces and improving the distribution of health workforces in primary health care facilities. The disproportionality between physicians and nurses was related to the shortage of number of nurses.

Trends in Marine Debris along the U.S. Pacific Coast and Hawai’i 1998-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ribic, Christine; Seba B. Sheavly,; Rugg, David J.; Erdmann, Eric S.

2012-01-01

We assessed amounts, composition, and trends of marine debris for the U.S. Pacific Coast and Hawai’i using National Marine Debris Monitoring Program data. Hawai’i had the highest debris loads; the North Pacific Coast region had the lowest debris loads. The Southern California Bight region had the highest land-based debris loads. Debris loads decreased over time for all source categories in all regions except for land-based and general-source loads in the North Pacific Coast region, which were unchanged. General-source debris comprised 30–40% of the items in all regions. Larger local populations were associated with higher land-based debris loads across regions; the effect declined at higher population levels. Upwelling affected deposition of ocean-based and general-source debris loads but not land-based loads along the Pacific Coast. LNSO decreased debris loads for both land-based and ocean-based debris but not general-source debris in Hawai’i, a more complex climate-ocean effect than had previously been found.

The Relationship of Housing and Population Health: A 30-Year Retrospective Analysis

PubMed Central

Jacobs, David E.; Wilson, Jonathan; Dixon, Sherry L.; Smith, Janet; Evens, Anne

2009-01-01

Objective We analyzed the relationship between health status and housing quality over time. Methods We combined data from two nationally representative longitudinal surveys of the U.S. population and its housing, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the American Housing Survey, respectively. We identified housing and health trends from approximately 1970 to 2000, after excluding those trends for which data were missing or where we found no plausible association or change in trend. Results Changes in housing include construction type, proportion of rental versus home ownership, age, density, size, moisture, pests, broken windows, ventilation and air conditioning, and water leaks. Changes in health measures include asthma, respiratory illness, obesity and diabetes, and lead poisoning, among others. The results suggest ecologic trends in childhood lead poisoning follow housing age, water leaks, and ventilation; asthma follows ventilation, windows, and age; overweight trends follow ventilation; blood pressure trends follow community measures; and health disparities have not changed greatly. Conclusions Housing trends are consistent with certain health trends over time. Future national longitudinal surveys should include health, housing, and community metrics within a single integrated design, instead of separate surveys, in order to develop reliable indicators of how housing changes affect population health and how to best target resources. Little progress has been made in reducing the health and housing disparities of disadvantaged groups, with the notable exception of childhood lead poisoning caused by exposure to lead-based paint hazards. Use of these and other data sets to create reliable integrated indicators of health and housing quality are needed. PMID:19440499

Population-based trend analysis of laparoscopic Nissen and Toupet fundoplications for gastroesophageal reflux disease.

PubMed

Zingg, U; Rosella, L; Guller, U

2010-12-01

The Nissen and Toupet fundoplications are the most commonly used techniques for surgical treatment of gastroesophageal reflux disease. To date, no population-based trend analysis has been reported examining the choice of procedure and short-term outcomes. This study was designed to analyze trends in the use of Nissen versus Toupet fundoplications, and corresponding short-term outcomes during a 10-year period between 1995 and 2004. A trend analysis was performed of 873 patients (Toupet: 254 patients, Nissen: 619 patients) prospectively enrolled in the database of the Swiss Association for Laparoscopic and Thoracoscopic Surgery. The frequency of the performed techniques remained stable during the observation period (p value for trend 0.206). The average postoperative and total length of hospital stay both significantly decreased during the 10-year period from 5.6 to 4.0 days and 6.8 to 4.8 days, respectively (both p values for trend <0.001). The average duration of surgery decreased significantly from 141 minutes to 121 minutes (p value for trend <0.001). There was a trend towards less complications in later years (2000-2004) compared to early years (1995-1999, p = 0.058). Conversion rates were significantly lower in later years compared with early years (p = 0.004). This is the first trend analysis in the literature reporting clinical outcomes of 873 prospectively enrolled patients undergoing Nissen and Toupet fundoplications during a 10-year period. The proportion of laparoscopic Nissen versus Toupet fundoplications remained stable over time, indicating that literature reports of the advantages of one procedure over the other had minimal influence on surgeons' choice of technique. Length of hospital stay, duration of surgery, morbidity, and conversion rate decreased over time, reflecting the learning curve. Clearly, patient outcomes have much improved during the 10-year observation period.

Hip fracture incidence 2003-2013 and projected cases until 2050 in Austria: a population-based study.

PubMed

Concin, Hans; Brozek, Wolfgang; Benedetto, Karl-Peter; Häfele, Hartmut; Kopf, Joachim; Bärenzung, Thomas; Schnetzer, Richard; Schenk, Christian; Stimpfl, Elmar; Waheed-Hutter, Ursula; Ulmer, Hanno; Rapp, Kilian; Zwettler, Elisabeth; Nagel, Gabriele

2016-12-01

Elevated hip fracture incidence is a major public health problem looming to aggravate in industrialized countries due to demographic developments. We report hip fracture incidence and expected future cases from Vorarlberg, the westernmost province of Austria, results potentially representative of Central European populations. Crude and standardized hip fracture incidence rates in Vorarlberg 2003-2013 are reported. Based on the age-specific incidence in 2013 or trends 2003-2013, we predict hip fractures till 2050. Female age-standardized hip fracture incidence decreased 2005-2013, whereas for men, the trend was rather unclear. Uncorrected forecasts indicate that by 2050, female and male cases will each have more than doubled from 2015 in all demographic core scenarios. Corrected by incidence trends before 2013, cases are expected to drop among women but rise among men. We anticipate rising hip fracture numbers in Vorarlberg within the next decades, unless prevention programs that presumably account for decreasing incidence rates, particularly among women since 2005, take further effect to counteract the predicted steady increase due to demographic changes. Concomitantly, augmented endeavors to target the male population by these programs are needed.

Dispensing with marriage: Marital and partnership trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa 2000-2006

PubMed Central

Hosegood, Victoria; McGrath, Nuala; Moultrie, Tom

2015-01-01

This paper describes marriage and partnership patterns and trends in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa from 2000-2006. The study is based on longitudinal, population-based data collected by the Africa Centre demographic surveillance system. We consider whether the high rates of non-marriage among Africans in South Africa reported in the 1980s were reversed following the political transformation underway by the 1990s. Our findings show that marriage has continued to decline with a small increase in cohabitation among unmarried couples, particularly in more urbanised areas. Comparing surveillance and census data, we highlight problems with the use of the ‘living together’ marital status category in a highly mobile population. PMID:25729322

Medicare Cancer Screening in the Context of Clinical Guidelines: 2000 to 2012.

PubMed

Maroongroge, Sean; Yu, James B

2018-04-01

Cancer screening is a ubiquitous and controversial public health issue, particularly in the elderly population. Despite extensive evidence-based guidelines for screening, it is unclear how cancer screening has changed in the Medicare population over time. We characterize trends in cancer screening for the most common cancer types in the Medicare fee-for-service (FFS) program in the context of conflicting guidelines from 2000 to 2012. We performed a descriptive analysis of retrospective claims data from the Medicare FFS program based on billing codes. Our data include all claims for Medicare part B beneficiaries who received breast, colorectal (CRC), or prostate cancer screening from 2000 to 2012 based on billing codes. We utilize a Monte Carlo permutation method to detect changes in screening trends. In total, 231,416,732 screening tests were analyzed from 2000 to 2012, representing an average of 436.8 tests per 1000 beneficiaries per year. Mammography rates declined 7.4%, with digital mammography extensively replacing film. CRC cancer screening rates declined overall. As a percentage of all CRC screening tests, colonoscopy grew from 32% to 71%. Prostate screening rates increased 16% from 2000 to 2007, and then declined to 7% less than its 2000 rate by 2012. Both the aggressiveness of screening guidelines and screening rates for the Medicare FFS population peaked and then declined from 2000 to 2012. However, guideline publications did not consistently precede utilization trend shifts. Technology adoption, practical and financial concerns, and patient preferences may have also contributed to the observed trends. Further research should be performed on the impact of multiple, conflicting guidelines in cancer screening.

School Enrollment--Social and Economic Characteristics of Students: October 1977 (Advance Report). Current Population Reports. Population Characteristics. Series P-20, No. 321.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bureau of the Census (DOC), Suitland, MD.

This report presents a summary of recent trends in school and college enrollment based on the October 1977 Current Population Survey (CPS) and earlier surveys. Enrollment statistics representing growth and decline at various educational levels are evaluated in written summaries. Comparative and distributive enrollment statistics of the population…

School Enrollment in the United States: 2008. Population Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Jessica W.; Bauman, Kurt

2011-01-01

This report discusses school enrollment levels and trends in the population aged 3 and older based on data collected in 2008 by the U.S. Census Bureau in the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Current Population Survey (CPS). This is the second report in a series of reports using both ACS and CPS data to discuss school enrollment. The two…

Hypertension in Germany.

PubMed

Neuhauser, Hannelore; Diederichs, Claudia; Boeing, Heiner; Felix, Stephan B; Jünger, Claus; Lorbeer, Roberto; Meisinger, Christine; Peters, Annette; Völzke, Henry; Weikert, Cornelia; Wild, Philipp; Dörr, Marcus

2016-12-02

Hypertension is a key risk factor. However, population data based on blood pressure measurements in Germany are scarce. Standardized blood pressure (BP) measurements and medication data from seven population-based studies conducted in Germany between 1994 and 2012 (66 845 participants, 25-74 years) were analyzed: the EPICPotsdam study (1994-1998, EPIC), the KORA-S4 Study (1999-2001) in Augsburg, and the Gutenberg Health Study (2007-2012, GHS) in Mainz/Mainz-Bingen provided data for descriptive comparisons. Time trends were analyzed based on identical study regions for the German National Health Interview and Examination Survey 1998 (BGS98) and the German Health Examination Survey for Adults (2008-11, DEGS1) as well as the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) in Northeast Germany (1997-2001) and the SHIP-TREND study (2008-2012). BP data were adjusted for study-specific measurement devices based on calibration studies. After adjustment for study-specific measurement devices, mean systolic and diastolic BP values were lower and treatment proportions higher in recent (2007-2012) compared to older (1994-2001) studies. Mean BP decrease was most pronounced (systolic ≥ 10 mmHg) in the elderly (55-74 years). The regional SHIP-TREND data for Northeast Germany showed a decrease in mean systolic BP in young men aged 25 to 34 years; on a national level according to the DEGS1 data, however, no such decrease was observed for this group. New data add evidence for lower BP in Germany. However, the prevention potential remains high. Future research based on population-based data should place a special focus on blood pressure data in young men.

We, the Americans.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilkinson, Gary H.

Demographic data based on the U.S. census of 1980 are presented and compared to data from the 1970 census. A series of charts, maps, graphs, and tables provide detailed statistical data on such things as population growth trends, population by race and age, educational achievement, number of people living alone, male and female occupations,…

South Dakota Kids Count Factbook, 2001.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cochran, Carole, Ed.

This Kids Count factbook examines statewide trends in well-being for South Dakota's children. The statistical portrait is based on 24 indicators in the areas of demographics, health, education, economic status, and safety. The indicators are: (1) poverty thresholds; (2) population; (3) population on Indian Reservations; (4) infant mortality; (5)…

Age at stroke: temporal trends in stroke incidence in a large, biracial population.

PubMed

Kissela, Brett M; Khoury, Jane C; Alwell, Kathleen; Moomaw, Charles J; Woo, Daniel; Adeoye, Opeolu; Flaherty, Matthew L; Khatri, Pooja; Ferioli, Simona; De Los Rios La Rosa, Felipe; Broderick, Joseph P; Kleindorfer, Dawn O

2012-10-23

We describe temporal trends in stroke incidence stratified by age from our population-based stroke epidemiology study. We hypothesized that stroke incidence in younger adults (age 20-54) increased over time, most notably between 1999 and 2005. The Greater Cincinnati/Northern Kentucky region includes an estimated population of 1.3 million. Strokes were ascertained in the population between July 1, 1993, and June 30, 1994, and in calendar years 1999 and 2005. Age-, race-, and gender-specific incidence rates with 95 confidence intervals were calculated assuming a Poisson distribution. We tested for differences in age trends over time using a mixed-model approach, with appropriate link functions. The mean age at stroke significantly decreased from 71.2 years in 1993/1994 to 69.2 years in 2005 (p < 0.0001). The proportion of all strokes under age 55 increased from 12.9% in 1993/1994 to 18.6% in 2005. Regression modeling showed a significant change over time (p = 0.002), characterized as a shift to younger strokes in 2005 compared with earlier study periods. Stroke incidence rates in those 20-54 years of age were significantly increased in both black and white patients in 2005 compared to earlier periods. We found trends toward increasing stroke incidence at younger ages. This is of great public health significance because strokes in younger patients carry the potential for greater lifetime burden of disability and because some potential contributors identified for this trend are modifiable.

Technical review of the status of Northern Goshawks in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Andersen, D.E.; DeStefano, S.; Goldstein, M.I.; Titus, K.; Crocker-Bedford, C.; Keane, J.J.; Anthony, R.G.; Rosenfield, Robert N.

2005-01-01

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) was petitioned in 1997 to consider listing Northern Goshawks (Accipiter gentilis atricapillus) under the Endangered Species Act of 1973, west of the 100th meridian of the contiguous United States. In their 12-mo finding issued in June 1998, the FWS determined that listing this population as threatened or endangered was not warranted and based that decision on review existing population and habitat information. Because the status of goshawks in the western U.S. continues to be contentious and the FWS finding has been challenged, the Raptor Research Foundation, Inc. and The Wildlife Society jointly formed a committee to review information regarding the status of the goshawk population in the contiguous U.S. west of the 100th meridian. The committee was requested to: (1) determine if there is evidence of a population trend in goshawks in the western U.S., excluding Alaska; (2) determine if there is evidence that goshawks nesting in the eastern and western U.S. represent distinctive, genetically unique populations; and (3) evaluate evidence for goshawk-habitat relations, including any association with large, mostly-unbroken tracts of old growth and mature forests. Based on existing information, the committee concluded: (1) existing data are not adequate to assess population trend in goshawks west of the 100th meridian; (2) existing analyses of phylogeography have not provided evidence of genetic differences among recognized (atricapillus, laingi) or putative (apache) subspecies, and the genetic distinctness of atricapillus goshawks in western and eastern North America is not known; and (3) at present, assessing the status of goshawks solely using distribution of late-successional forests is not appropriate, based on the current understanding of goshawk-habitat relations, although goshawks clearly use and often select late-successional forests for nesting and foraging. We provide recommendations on information needs to assess status and population trend of goshawks in the western U.S. ?? 2005 The Raptor Research Foundation, Inc.

Contrasting rainfall declines in northern and southern Tanzania: Potential differential impacts of west Pacific warming and east Pacific cooling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrison, L.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.; Pedreros, D. H.; Shukla, S.; Husak, G. J.

2015-12-01

Here, we present analysis of a new 1900-2014 rainfall record for the Greater Horn of Africa with high station density (CenTrends), and evaluate potential climate change "hot spots" in Tanzania. We identify recent (1981-2014) downward trends in Tanzanian rainfall, use CenTrends to place these in a longer historical context, and relate rainfall in these regions to decadal changes in global sea surface temperatures (SSTs). To identify areas of concern, we consider the potential food security impacts of the recent rainfall declines and also rapid population growth. Looking forward, we consider what the links to SSTs might mean for rainfall in the next several decades based on SST projections. In addition to CenTrends, we use a variety of geographic data sets, including 1981-2014 rainfall from the Climate Hazards group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPSv2.0), simulated crop stress from the USGS Geospatial Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (GeoWRSI) model, NOAA Extended Reconstructed SSTs (ERSST v4), SST projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), and land cover and population maps from SERVIR, WorldPOP, and CIESIN's Gridded Population of the World. The long-term CenTrends record allows us to suggest an interesting dichotomy in decadal rainfall forcing. During the March to June season, SSTs in the west Pacific appear to be driving post-1980 rainfall reductions in northern Tanzania. In the 2000s, northern Tanzania's densely populated Pangani River, Internal Drainage, and Lake Victoria basins experienced the driest period in more than a century. During summer, negative trends in southern Tanzania appear linked to a negative SST trend in the Nino3.4 region. Since the SST trend in the west (east) Pacific appears strongly influenced by global warming (natural decadal variability), we suggest that water resources in northern Tanzania may face increasing challenges, but that this will be less the case in southern Tanzania.

Recent time trends in cancer of the oesophagus and gastric cardia in the region of Calvados in France, 1978-1995: a population based study.

PubMed

Desoubeaux, N; Le Prieur, A; Launoy, G; Maurel, J; Lefevre, H; Guillois, J M; Gignoux, M

1999-12-01

The incidence of oesophageal cancer differs from country to country, and even between areas of the same country. Many studies in recent years have shown an upward trend of a particular histologic type: adenocarcinoma of the oesophagus. It is difficult to precisely locate adenocarcinomas situated at the junction between the oesophagus and the gastric cardia. Clear criteria to define and classify such tumours are essential in order to analyse their evolution. The present study describes the changing incidence of cancers of the oesophagus and gastric cardia according to histologic type from 1978 to 1995 in Calvados, the highest-risk French region with two different topographic classifications of adenocarcinomas: one based on Misumi's criteria and the other based on local extension of cancer. In total, 1835 cancers of the oesophagus and gastric cardia were diagnosed in this period. Incidence rates for oesophageal and gastric cardia cancers standardized on the world population were 24.4/10(5) and 2.4/10(5) in men and 1.4/10(5) and 0.4/10(5) in women, respectively. The time trend in the incidence of squamous cell cancers was downward in men -0.74 (P < 10(-6)) and stable in women +0.04 (P = 0.65). Regarding adenocarcinomas, with the classification based on Misumi's categories, there was a slight but significant upward trend for oesophageal adenocarcinoma in men [mean annual variation of +0.09 (P < 10(-5))] while the tendency was downward and significant for gastric cardia adenocarcinoma [mean annual variation of -0.09 (P < 10(-4))]. When adenocarcinomas of the oesophagus and those of the gastric cardia with oesophageal involvement are taken together (second classification), there was an upward trend which was not significant in men and was significant in women. There was no such upward trend in adenocarcinomas limited to the gastric cardia and/or involving the stomach. Because of the difficulties in determining accurate localization routinely in population-based studies, it seems sensible to preclude classification biases in recommending the grouping together of gastric cardia adenocarcinomas with oesophageal adenocarcinomas, at least with those among the latter occurring in the lower third of the oesophagus.

New Labor Force Projections to 1990. Special Labor Force Report 197.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fullerton, Howard N., Jr.; Flaim, Paul O.

Prepared as part of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' periodic reassessment of its projections of the future growth trends of the various sectors of the American economy, new labor force projections to 1990 are presented based on trends in labor force participation as observed through 1975 and on the most recent population projections of the U.S.…

Evolving Patient Compliance Trends: Integrating Clinical, Insurance, and Extrapolated Socioeconomic Data

PubMed Central

Klobusicky, Joseph J.; Aryasomayajula, Arun; Marko, Nicholas

2015-01-01

Efforts toward improving patient compliance in medication focus on either identifying trends in patient features or studying changes through an intervention. Our study seeks to provide an important link between these two approaches through defining trends of evolving compliance. In addition to using clinical covariates provided through insurance claims and health records, we also extracted census based data to provide socioeconomic covariates such as income and population density. Through creating quadrants based on periods of medicine intake, we derive several novel definitions of compliance. These definitions revealed additional compliance trends through considering refill histories later in a patient’s length of therapy. These results suggested that the link between patient features and compliance includes a temporal component, and should be considered in policymaking when identifying compliant subgroups. PMID:26958212

Landbird trends in national parks of the North Coast and Cascades Network, 2005-12

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saracco, James F.; Holmgren, Amanda L.; Wilkerson, Robert L.; Siegel, Rodney B.; Kuntz, Robert C.; Jenkins, Kurt J.; Happe, Patricia J.; Boetsch, John R.; Huff, Mark H.

2014-01-01

National parks in the North Coast and Cascades Network (NCCN) can fulfill vital roles as refuges for bird species dependent on late-successional forest conditions and as reference sites for assessing the effects of land-use and land-cover changes on bird populations throughout the larger Pacific Northwest region. Additionally, long-term monitoring of landbirds throughout the NCCN provides information that can inform decisions about important management issues in the parks, including visitor impacts, fire management, and the effects of introduced species. In 2005, the NCCN began implementing a network-wide Landbird Monitoring Project as part of the NPS Inventory and Monitoring Program. In this report, we discuss 8-year trends (2005–12) of bird populations in the NCCN, based on a sampling framework of point counts established in three large wilderness parks (Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks), 7-year trends at Lewis and Clark National Historical Park (sampled in 2006, 2008, 2010, and 2012), and 5-year trends at San Juan Islands National Historical Park (sampled in 2007, 2009, and 2011). Our analysis encompasses a fairly short time span for this long-term monitoring program. The first 2 years of the time series (2005 and 2006) were implemented as part of a limited pilot study that included only a small subset of the transects. The subsequent 6 years (2007–12) represent just a single cycle through 5 years of alternating panels of transects in the large parks, with the first of five alternating panels revisited for the first time in 2012. Of 204 transects that comprise the six sampling panels in the large parks, only 68 (one-third) have thus been eligible for revisit surveys (34 during every year after 2005, and an additional 34 only in 2012) and can contribute to our current trend estimates. We therefore initiated the current analysis with a primary goal of testing our analytical procedures rather than detecting trends that might be strong enough to drive conservation or management decisions in the parks or elsewhere. We expect that aggregated trend detection results may change substantially over the next several years, as the number of transects with revisit histories triples and the spatial dispersion of transects contributing to trend estimates also improves greatly. In the meantime, caution should be exercised in interpreting the importance of trends, as individual years can have very large influences on the direction and magnitude of trends in a time series of such limited duration (and limited numbers of repeat visits at the small parks). Nevertheless, we estimated trends for 43 species at Mount Rainier National Park, 53 species at North Cascades National Park Complex, and 41 species at Olympic National Park. Of 137 park-species combinations (including combined-park analyses), we found 16 significant decreases (12 percent) and five significant increases (4 percent). We identify several limitations of the current analytical framework for trend assessment but suggest that the overall sampling design is strong and amenable to analysis by more recently developed model-based methods. These could provide a more flexible framework for examining trends and other population parameters of interest, as well as testing hypotheses that relate the distribution and abundance of species to environmental covariates. A model-based approach would allow for modeling various components of the detection process and analyzing observations (detection process), population state (occupancy, population size, density), and change (trend, local extinction and colonization rates turnover) simultaneously. Finally, we also evaluate operational aspects of NCCN Landbird Monitoring Project, and conclude that our robust, multi-party partnership is successfully implementing the project as it was envisioned.

Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions

DOE PAGES

van Ruijven, Bas J.; Daenzer, Katie; Fisher-Vanden, Karen; ...

2016-02-14

This article provides an overview of the base-year assumptions and core baseline projections for the set of models participating in the LAMP and CLIMACAP projects. Here we present the range in core baseline projections for Latin America, and identify key differences between model projections including how these projections compare to historic trends. We find relatively large differences across models in base year assumptions related to population, GDP, energy and CO 2 emissions due to the use of different data sources, but also conclude that this does not influence the range of projections. We find that population and GDP projections acrossmore » models span a broad range, comparable to the range represented by the set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Kaya-factor decomposition indicates that the set of core baseline scenarios mirrors trends experienced over the past decades. Emissions in Latin America are projected to rise as result of GDP and population growth and a minor shift in the energy mix toward fossil fuels. Most scenarios assume a somewhat higher GDP growth than historically observed and continued decline of population growth. Minor changes in energy intensity or energy mix are projected over the next few decades.« less

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Hatfield, Brian B.; Staedler, Michelle M.; Gross, Arthur

2006-01-01

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016

PubMed Central

Korenromp, Eline L; Mahiané, Guy; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Ndowa, Francis; El-Kettani, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Mayaud, Philippe; Chico, R Matthew; Pretorius, Carel; Hecht, Kendall; Wi, Teodora

2017-01-01

Objective To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. Methods The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling. Results Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15–49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence. Conclusions This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys. PMID:28325771

Problems of Definition in Locating Rural-Urban Population in Sparse Land Areas or Maximum Feasible Misunderstanding Arising from Census Data.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kraenzel, Carl F.

Rural demographic characteristics, regional distribution, and their respective trends should constitute significant policy information for the nation, but the U.S. Population Census offers little aid to the researcher studying population on a minor civil division (MCD) basis. When some census data are based on a 15 percent sample, some on a 5…

46-Year Trends in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Mortality in the United States, 1968 to 2013: A Nationwide Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Yen, Eric Y; Shaheen, Magda; Woo, Jennifer M P; Mercer, Neil; Li, Ning; McCurdy, Deborah K; Karlamangla, Arun; Singh, Ram R

2017-12-05

No large population-based studies have been done on systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) mortality trends in the United States. To identify secular trends and population characteristics associated with SLE mortality. Population-based study using a national mortality database and census data. United States. All U.S. residents, 1968 through 2013. Joinpoint trend analysis of annual age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for SLE and non-SLE causes by sex, race/ethnicity, and geographic region; multiple logistic regression analysis to determine independent associations of demographic variables and period with SLE mortality. There were 50 249 SLE deaths and 100 851 288 non-SLE deaths from 1968 through 2013. Over this period, the SLE ASMR decreased less than the non-SLE ASMR, with a 34.6% cumulative increase in the ratio of the former to the latter. The non-SLE ASMR decreased every year starting in 1968, whereas the SLE ASMR decreased between 1968 and 1975, increased between 1975 and 1999, and decreased thereafter. Similar patterns were seen in both sexes, among black persons, and in the South. However, statistically significant increases in the SLE ASMR did not occur among white persons over the 46-year period. Females, black persons, and residents of the South had higher SLE ASMRs and larger cumulative increases in the ratio of the SLE to the non-SLE ASMR (31.4%, 62.5%, and 58.6%, respectively) than males, other racial/ethnic groups, and residents of other regions, respectively. Multiple logistic regression showed independent associations of sex, race, and region with SLE mortality risk and revealed significant racial/ethnic differences in associations of SLE mortality with sex and region. Underreporting of SLE on death certificates may have resulted in underestimates of SLE ASMRs. Accuracy of coding on death certificates is difficult to ascertain. Rates of SLE mortality have decreased since 1968 but remain high relative to non-SLE mortality, and significant sex, racial, and regional disparities persist. None.

Suicidal ideation and Attempts in North American School-Based Surveys

PubMed Central

Saewyc, Elizabeth M.; Skay, Carol L.; Hynds, Patricia; Pettingell, Sandra; Bearinger, Linda H.; Resnick, Michael D.; Reis, Elizabeth

2008-01-01

This study explored the prevalence, disparity, and cohort trends in suicidality among bisexual teens vs. heterosexual and gay/lesbian peers in 9 population-based high school surveys in Canada and the U.S. Multivariate logistic regressions were used to calculate age-adjusted odds ratios separately by gender; 95% confidence intervals tested cohort trends where surveys were repeated over multiple years. Results showed remarkable consistency: bisexual youth reported higher odds of recent suicidal ideation and attempts vs. heterosexual peers, with increasing odds in most surveys over the past decade. Results compared to gay and lesbian peers were mixed, with varying gender differences in prevalence and disparity trends in the different regions. PMID:19835039

Primary Care Practice Transformation and the Rise of Consumerism.

PubMed

Shrank, William H

2017-04-01

Americans are increasingly demanding the same level of service in healthcare that they receive in other services and products that they buy. This rise in consumerism poses challenges for primary care physicians as they attempt to transform their practices to succeed in a value-based reimbursement landscape, where they are rewarded for managing costs and improving the health of populations. In this paper, three examples of consumer-riven trends are described: retail healthcare, direct and concierge care, and home-based diagnostics and care. For each, the intersection of consumer-driven care and the goals of value-based primary care are explored. If the correct payment and connectivity enablers are in place, some examples of consumer-driven care are well-positioned to support primary care physicians in their mission to deliver high-quality, efficient care for the populations they serve. However, concerns about access and equity make other trends less consistent with that mission.

P.E.O.P.L.E. 32: B.C. College Region Population Projections

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ministry of Advanced Education and Labour Market Development, 2007

2007-01-01

Each year BC Stats, Ministry of Labour and Citizens' Services, projects the population of British Columbia (BC) and its regions. These projections are based on assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration levels. Assumptions are derived from demographic trends modified to include potential impacts of future economic factors. The…

Divergent oestrogen receptor-specific breast cancer trends in Ireland (2004-2013): Amassing data from independent Western populations provide etiologic clues.

PubMed

Mullooly, Maeve; Murphy, Jeanne; Gierach, Gretchen L; Walsh, Paul M; Deady, Sandra; Barron, Thomas I; Sherman, Mark E; Rosenberg, Philip S; Anderson, William F

2017-11-01

The aetiology and clinical behaviour of breast cancers vary by oestrogen receptor (ER) expression, HER2 expression and over time. Data from the United States and Denmark show rising incidence rates for ER+ and falling incidence rates for ER- breast cancers. Given that Ireland is a somewhat similar Western population but with distinctive risk exposures (especially for lactation), we analysed breast cancer trends by ER status; and for the first time, by the joint expression of ER±/HER2±. We assessed invasive breast cancers (n = 24,845; 2004-2013) within the population-based National Cancer Registry of Ireland. The population at risk was obtained from the Irish Central Statistics Office (n = 10,401,986). After accounting for missing ER and HER2 data, we assessed receptor-specific secular trends in age-standardised incidence rates (ASRs) with the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Age-period-cohort models were also fitted to further characterise trends accounting for age, calendar-period and birth-cohort interactions. ASRs increased for ER+ (EAPC: 2.2% per year [95% CI: 0.97, 3.45%/year]) and decreased for ER- cancers (EAPC: -3.43% per year [95% CI: -5.05, -1.78%/year]), as well as for specific age groups at diagnosis (<30-49, 50-64 and ≥65 years). ER+/HER2- cancers rose, ER+/HER2+ cancers were statistically flat and ER-/HER± cancers declined. Secular trends for ER± cancers in Ireland were like those previously observed. Stratification by HER2± expression did not substantively alter ER± trends. The divergence of ER± incidence rates among independent Western populations likely reflects calendar-period and/or risk factor changes with differential effects for ER+ and ER- breast cancers. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Trends in Smoking Among Adults From 1980 to 2009: The Minnesota Heart Survey

PubMed Central

Filion, Kristian B.; Steffen, Lyn M.; Duval, Sue; Jacobs, David R.; Blackburn, Henry

2012-01-01

Objectives. We examined population-based smoking trends in Minnesota between 1980 and 2009. Methods. The Minnesota Heart Survey (MHS) is a population-based, serial, cross-sectional study of cardiovascular risk factor trends among Minneapolis–Saint Paul metropolitan residents. The MHS recently completed its sixth survey (1980–1982 [n = 3799], 1985–1987 [n = 4641], 1990–1992 [n = 5159], 1995–1997 [n = 6690], 2000–2002 [n = 3281], and 2007–2009 [n = 3179]). We used MHS data to examine smoking trends among adults aged 25 to 74 years by means of age-adjusted generalized linear mixed models. Results. Between 1980 and 2009, the prevalence of current smoking decreased from 32.8% to 15.5% for men and from 32.7% to 12.2% for women (P < .001 for each). Greater decreases occurred among those with higher income and those with more education. Among currently smoking men, the number of cigarettes smoked per day decreased from 26.0 in the 1980–1982 survey to 16.0 in the 2007–2009 survey (P < .001). Similar trends were observed among women. Conclusions. Although the prevalence of smoking and cigarette consumption decreased from the 1980–1982 period to the 2007–2009 period, interventions specifically designed for those of lower socioeconomic status are needed. PMID:21852651

Abundance, distribution, and population trends of the iconic Hawaiian Honeycreeper, the ʻIʻiwi (Vestiaria coccinea) throughout the Hawaiian Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paxton, Eben H.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Camp, Richard J.

2013-01-01

Naturalists in the 1800s described the ʻIʻiwi (Vestiaria coccinea) as one of the most abundant forest birds, detected in forested areas from sea level to tree line across all the major Hawaiian Islands. However, in the late 1800s, ʻIʻiwi began to disappear from low elevation forests, and by the mid-1900s, the species was largely absent from low- and mid-elevation areas. Today, ʻIʻiwi are restricted to high-elevation forests on the islands of Hawaiʻi, east Maui, and Kauaʻi, with a few birds apparently persisting on Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, and west Maui. ʻIʻiwi are highly vulnerable to introduced disease, and the prevalence of avian malaria in low and mid-elevations is believed to be the cause of ʻIʻiwi being restricted to high elevations where temperatures are too cold for the development of the disease and its mosquito vector. With global warming, it is feared that the disease will move quickly into the high-elevation forests where the last ʻIʻiwi reside, threatening their viability. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service was petitioned to list the ʻIʻiwi as an Endangered Species in 2010, and this report provides a comprehensive review of the abundance, distribution, and trends using historical survey data as well as the most recently available survey information (up to 2012). We estimate the total population size of ‘I‘iwi at 550,972–659,864 (mean = 605,418) individuals. Of these, 90 percent are on the island of Hawaiʻi, followed by east Maui (about 10 percent), with less than 1 percent on Kauaʻi. ʻIʻiwi population trends vary across the islands. ʻIʻiwi population in Kauaʻi has experienced sharp declines, with a projected trend of 92 percent decline over a 25 year period based on the 2000–2012 surveys. On East Maui, the northeastern region has experienced declines (34 percent over a 25 year period), while the southeastern region has been stable to moderately increasing. On the island of Hawaiʻi, population trends are mixed. On the windward side, populations are largely declining, although the northern section (Hakalau Forest) has stable populations. On the leeward side, results suggest a strongly increasing population, with estimates of as much as a 147 percent increase over a 25 year period from the Puʻu Waʻawaʻa region. However, it is unclear how much these results from the leeward side of Hawaiʻi show a population trend contrary to population trends in all other areas or are an artifact of a sparsely sampled area. Trends by elevation suggest a large decrease in numbers of ʻIʻiwi at elevations below 1,200 meters on Kauaʻi and northeast Maui. Low elevation ʻIʻiwi populations also appear to have decreased in other regions, although low-elevation areas are not surveyed as often as other areas because of their lack of native forest birds. An exception to this pattern was the lower portions of the Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge Kona Unit in the central leeward part of the island of Hawaiʻi, where populations appeared stable at the lower elevations. Based on the most recent surveys (up to 2012), approximately 50 percent of ʻIʻiwi live in a narrow, 500-meter band at elevations of 1,200–1,700 meters, suggesting that ʻIʻiwi are vulnerable to future shifts in climate.

Estimating population trends with a linear model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bart, Jonathan; Collins, Brian D.; Morrison, R.I.G.

2003-01-01

We describe a simple and robust method for estimating trends in population size. The method may be used with Breeding Bird Survey data, aerial surveys, point counts, or any other program of repeated surveys at permanent locations. Surveys need not be made at each location during each survey period. The method differs from most existing methods in being design based, rather than model based. The only assumptions are that the nominal sampling plan is followed and that sample size is large enough for use of the t-distribution. Simulations based on two bird data sets from natural populations showed that the point estimate produced by the linear model was essentially unbiased even when counts varied substantially and 25% of the complete data set was missing. The estimating-equation approach, often used to analyze Breeding Bird Survey data, performed similarly on one data set but had substantial bias on the second data set, in which counts were highly variable. The advantages of the linear model are its simplicity, flexibility, and that it is self-weighting. A user-friendly computer program to carry out the calculations is available from the senior author.

Predictors of and Trends in High-Intensity End-of-Life Care Among Children With Cancer: A Population-Based Study Using Health Services Data.

PubMed

Kassam, Alisha; Sutradhar, Rinku; Widger, Kimberley; Rapoport, Adam; Pole, Jason D; Nelson, Katherine; Wolfe, Joanne; Earle, Craig C; Gupta, Sumit

2017-01-10

Purpose Children with cancer often receive high-intensity (HI) medical care at the end-of-life (EOL). Previous studies have been limited to single centers or lacked detailed clinical data. We determined predictors of and trends in HI-EOL care by linking population-based clinical and health-services databases. Methods A retrospective decedent cohort of patients with childhood cancer who died between 2000 and 2012 in Ontario, Canada, was assembled using a provincial cancer registry and linked to population-based health-care data. Based on previous studies, the primary composite measure of HI-EOL care comprised any of the following: intravenous chemotherapy < 14 days from death; more than one emergency department visit; and more than one hospitalization or intensive care unit admission < 30 days from death. Secondary measures included those same individual measures and measures of the most invasive (MI) EOL care (eg, mechanical ventilation < 14 days from death). We determined predictors of outcomes with appropriate regression models. Sensitivity analysis was restricted to cases of cancer-related mortality, excluding treatment-related mortality (TRM) cases. Results The study included 815 patients; of these, 331 (40.6%) experienced HI-EOL care. Those with hematologic malignancies were at highest risk (odds ratio, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.8 to 3.6; P < .001). Patients with hematologic cancers and those who died after 2004 were more likely to experience the MI-EOL care (eg, intensive care unit, mechanical ventilation, odds ratios from 2.0 to 5.1). Excluding cases of TRM did not substantively change the results. Conclusion Ontario children with cancer continue to experience HI-EOL care. Patients with hematologic malignancies are at highest risk even when excluding TRM. Of concern, rates of the MI-EOL care have increased over time despite increased palliative care access. Linking health services and clinical data allows monitoring of population trends in EOL care and identifies high-risk populations for future interventions.

Estimating equations estimates of trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.

1994-01-01

The North American Breeding Bird Survey monitors changes in bird populations through time using annual counts at fixed survey sites. The usual method of estimating trends has been to use the logarithm of the counts in a regression analysis. It is contended that this procedure is reasonably satisfactory for more abundant species, but produces biased estimates for less abundant species. An alternative estimation procedure based on estimating equations is presented.

Monitoring progress in population health: trends in premature death rates.

PubMed

Remington, Patrick L; Catlin, Bridget B; Kindig, David A

2013-12-26

Trends in population health outcomes can be monitored to evaluate the performance of population health systems at the national, state, and local levels. The objective of this study was to compare and contrast 4 measures for assessing progress in population health improvement by using age-adjusted premature death rates as a summary measure of the overall health outcomes in the United States and in all 50 states. To evaluate the performance of statewide population health systems during the past 20 years, we used 4 measures of age-adjusted premature (<75 years of age) death rates: current rates (2009), baseline trends (1990s), follow-up trends (2000s), and changes in trends from baseline to the follow-up periods (ie, "bending the curve"). Current premature death rates varied by approximately twofold, with the lowest rate in Minnesota (268 deaths per 100,000) and the highest rate in Mississippi (482 deaths per 100,000). Rates improved the most in New York during the baseline period (-3.05% per year) and in New Jersey during the follow-up period (-2.87% per year), whereas Oklahoma ranked last in trends during both periods (-0.30%/y, baseline; +0.18%/y, follow-up). Trends improved the most in Connecticut, bending the curve downward by -1.03%; trends worsened the most in New Mexico, bending the curve upward by 1.21%. Current premature death rates, recent trends, and changes in trends vary by state in the United States. Policy makers can use these measures to evaluate the long-term population health impact of broad health care, behavioral, social, and economic investments in population health.

Trend in and Correlates of Undergoing Radiotherapy in Taiwanese Cancer Patients' Last Month of Life.

PubMed

Hung, Yen-Ni; Cheng, Skye Hung-Chun; Liu, Tsang-Wu; Chang, Wen-Cheng; Chen, Jen-Shi; Tang, Siew Tzuh

2016-09-01

A significant proportion of cancer patients at end of life (EOL) undergo radiotherapy, but this evidence is not from nationwide population-based studies. The aims of this population-based study were to investigate the trend in undergoing radiotherapy among Taiwanese cancer patients' last month of life (EOL radiotherapy) in 2001-2010 and to identify factors associated with EOL radiotherapy. This was a population-based retrospective cohort study analyzing data from Taiwan's national death registry, cancer registry, and National Health Insurance claims for EOL radiotherapy using multilevel generalized linear mixed modeling. Participants were Taiwanese cancer patients (N = 339,546) who died in 2001-2010. Overall, 8.59% (7.97%-9.85%) of patients underwent EOL radiotherapy with a decreasing trend over time. Correlates of EOL radiotherapy included male gender, younger age, residing in less urbanized areas, diagnosis of lung cancer, metastatic disease, death within two years of diagnosis, and without comorbidities. Cancer patients were more likely to undergo EOL radiotherapy if they received primary care from medical oncologists and pediatricians, in a nonprofit, teaching hospital with a larger case volume of terminally ill cancer patients, and greater EOL care intensity. Approximately one-tenth of Taiwanese cancer patients underwent EOL radiotherapy with a decreasing trend over time. Undergoing EOL radiotherapy was associated with demographics, disease characteristics, physician specialty, and primary hospital's characteristics and EOL care practice patterns. Clinical and financial interventions should target hospitals/physicians that tend to aggressively treat at-risk cancer patients at EOL to carefully evaluate the appropriateness and effectiveness of using EOL radiotherapy. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations.

PubMed

Condon, Robert H; Duarte, Carlos M; Pitt, Kylie A; Robinson, Kelly L; Lucas, Cathy H; Sutherland, Kelly R; Mianzan, Hermes W; Bogeberg, Molly; Purcell, Jennifer E; Decker, Mary Beth; Uye, Shin-ichi; Madin, Laurence P; Brodeur, Richard D; Haddock, Steven H D; Malej, Alenka; Parry, Gregory D; Eriksen, Elena; Quiñones, Javier; Acha, Marcelo; Harvey, Michel; Arthur, James M; Graham, William M

2013-01-15

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face.

Analysis of five-year trends in self-reported language preference and issues of item non-response among Hispanic persons in a large cross-sectional health survey: implications for the measurement of an ethnic minority population

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Significant differences in health outcomes have been documented among Hispanic persons, the fastest-growing demographic segment of the United States. The objective of this study was to examine trends in population growth and the collection of health data among Hispanic persons, including issues of language preference and survey completion using a national health survey to highlight issues of measurement of an increasingly important demographic segment of the United States. Design Data from the 2003-2007 United States Census and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System were used to compare trends in population growth and survey sample size as well as differences in survey response based on language preference among a Hispanic population. Percentages of item non-response on selected survey questions were compared for Hispanic respondents choosing to complete the survey in Spanish and those choosing to complete the survey in English. The mean number of attempts to complete the survey was also compared based on language preference among Hispanic respondents. Results The sample size of Hispanic persons in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System saw little growth compared to the actual growth of the Hispanic population in the United States. Significant differences in survey item non-response for nine of 15 survey questions were seen based on language preference. Hispanic respondents choosing to complete the survey in Spanish had a significantly fewer number of call attempts for survey completion compared to their Hispanic counterparts choosing to communicate in English. Conclusions Including additional measures of acculturation and increasing the sample size of Hispanic persons in a national health survey such as the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System may result in more precise findings that could be used to better target prevention and health care needs for an ethnic minority population. PMID:20412575

Changing Patterns in Rates and Means of Suicide in California, 2005 to 2013

PubMed Central

Galin, Jessica; Ahern, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Objectives. To describe recent trends in suicide throughout California and to compare rates and methods of suicide (“means”) across demographic groups. Methods. Data from statewide mortality records were used to estimate age-adjusted rates of suicide from 2005 to 2013, overall and by means, age, gender, race/ethnicity, urbanicity, and county. Results. The suicide rate increased 12.6% between 2005 and 2013, from 11.2 to 12.6 per 100 000 population, but this overall trend masks substantial heterogeneity across subgroups. In particular, rapid increases were observed for individuals of multiple races/ethnicities. Means of suicide changed, trending away from firearms toward suffocation and drug poisoning. Conclusions. High-risk groups and means of suicide are changing rapidly in California, so appropriate public health programming should prioritize population-based strategies. PMID:28177819

Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

Treesearch

David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

2015-01-01

Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

Prostate cancer in East Asia: evolving trend over the last decade

PubMed Central

Zhu, Yao; Wang, Hong-Kai; Qu, Yuan-Yuan; Ye, Ding-Wei

2015-01-01

Prostate cancer is now becoming an emerging health priority in East Asia. Most of our current knowledge on Prostate cancer has been generated from studies conducted in Western population; however, there is considerable heterogeneity of Prostate cancer between East and West. In this article, we reviewed epidemiologic trends, risk factors, disease characteristics and management of Prostate cancer in East Asian population over the last decade. Growing evidence from East Asia suggests an important role of genetic and environmental risk factors interactions in the carcinogenesis of Prostate cancer. Exposure to westernized diet and life style and improvement in health care in combination contribute substantially to the increasing epidemic in this region. Diagnostic and treatment guidelines in East Asia are largely based on Western knowledge. Although there is a remarkable improvement in the outcome over the last decade, ample evidence suggests an inneglectable difference in diagnostic accuracy, treatment efficacy and adverse events between different populations. The knowledge from western countries should be calibrated in the Asian setting to provide a better race-based treatment approach. In this review, we intend to reveal the evolving trend of Prostate cancer in the last decade, in order to gain evidence to improve Prostate cancer prevention and control in East Asia. PMID:25080928

Incidence and survival time trends for Spanish children and adolescents with leukaemia from 1983 to 2007.

PubMed

Marcos-Gragera, R; Galceran, J; Martos, C; de Munain, A L; Vicente-Raneda, M; Navarro, C; Quirós-Garcia, J R; Sánchez, M-J; Ardanaz, E; Ramos, M; Mateos, A; Salmerón, D; Felipe, S; Peris-Bonet, R

2017-03-01

We have analysed incidence and survival trends of children and adolescents with leukaemia registered in Spanish population-based cancer registries during the period 1983-2007. Childhood and adolescent leukaemia cases were drawn from the 11 Spanish population-based cancer registries. For survival, registries with data for the period 1991-2005 and follow-up until 31-12-2010 were included. Overall incidence trends were evaluated using joinpoint analysis. Observed survival rates were estimated using Kaplan-Meier, and trends were tested using the log-rank test. Based on 2606 cases (2274 children and 332 adolescents), the overall age-adjusted incidence rate (ASRw) of leukaemia was 47.9 cases per million child-years in children and 23.8 in adolescents. The ASRw of leukaemia increased with an annual percentage change of 9.6 % (95 % CI: 2.2-17.6) until 1990 followed by a stabilisation of rates. In adolescents, incidence did not increase. Five-year survival increased from 66 % in 1991-1995 to 76 % in 2001-2005. By age, survival was dramatically lower in infants (0) and adolescents (15-19) than in the other age groups and no improvement was observed. In both children and adolescents, differences in 5-year survival rates among major subgroups of leukaemias were significant. The increasing incidence trends observed in childhood leukaemias during the study period were confined to the beginning of the period. Remarkable improvements in survival have been observed in Spanish children with leukaemias. However, this improvement was not observed in infants and adolescents.

Out of Africa: modern human origins special feature: explaining worldwide patterns of human genetic variation using a coalescent-based serial founder model of migration outward from Africa.

PubMed

DeGiorgio, Michael; Jakobsson, Mattias; Rosenberg, Noah A

2009-09-22

Studies of worldwide human variation have discovered three trends in summary statistics as a function of increasing geographic distance from East Africa: a decrease in heterozygosity, an increase in linkage disequilibrium (LD), and a decrease in the slope of the ancestral allele frequency spectrum. Forward simulations of unlinked loci have shown that the decline in heterozygosity can be described by a serial founder model, in which populations migrate outward from Africa through a process where each of a series of populations is formed from a subset of the previous population in the outward expansion. Here, we extend this approach by developing a retrospective coalescent-based serial founder model that incorporates linked loci. Our model both recovers the observed decline in heterozygosity with increasing distance from Africa and produces the patterns observed in LD and the ancestral allele frequency spectrum. Surprisingly, although migration between neighboring populations and limited admixture between modern and archaic humans can be accommodated in the model while continuing to explain the three trends, a competing model in which a wave of outward modern human migration expands into a series of preexisting archaic populations produces nearly opposite patterns to those observed in the data. We conclude by developing a simpler model to illustrate that the feature that permits the serial founder model but not the archaic persistence model to explain the three trends observed with increasing distance from Africa is its incorporation of a cumulative effect of genetic drift as humans colonized the world.

Ethnicity and Urban Park Use: A Cross-Cultural Examination of Recreation Characteristics Among Six Population Subgroups

Treesearch

Vinod Sasidharan

2004-01-01

The ethnic minority population of the US continues to increase due to rising minority birth rates coupled with the influx of ethnic immigrants to America's cities, suburbs and towns (Parrillo 1994). Based on present immigration trends, by the year 2050, 22 percent of the US population will be Hispanic and 10 percent will be Asian (US Department of Commerce 1994)....

A climate trend analysis of Mali

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Adoum, Alkhalil; Eilerts, Gary; White, Libby

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), identifies modest declines in rainfall, accompanied by increases in air temperatures. These analyses are based on quality-controlled station observations. Conclusions: * Summer rains have remained relatively steady for the past 20 years, but are 12 percent below the 1920-1969 average. * Temperatures have increased by 0.8° Celsius since 1975, amplifying the effect of droughts. * Cereal yields are low but have been improving. * Current population and agricultural trends indicate that increased yields have offset population expansion, keeping per capita cereal production steady.

[Analysis of liver cancer incidence and trend in China].

PubMed

Zuo, Tingting; Zheng, Rongshou; Zeng, Hongmei; Zhang, Siwei; Chen, Wanqing

2015-09-01

The national population-based cancer registration data were used to analyze the liver cancer incidence and trend in China, in order to provide advise for making further strategy on liver cancer prevention and control. Liver cancer data of 2011 were retrieved from the database of the National Cancer Registry. The incident cases of liver cancer were estimated using age-specific rate by urban or rural areas and gender according to the national population in 2011. Liver cancer incidence data from 22 cancer registries were used to analyze the incidence trend during 2000-2011. The estimates of new cases of liver cancer were about 356 thousand in China in 2011. The incidence rate was 26.39/10(5,) and the age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese standard population and by world population were 19.48/10(5) and 19.10/10(5,) respectively.There was an increasing trend of incidence rate of liver cancer in China during 2000-2011 with an average annual percentage change(AAPC) of 1.0% (95%CI: 0.5%-1.4%), 1.2% (95%CI: 0.7%-1.8%)in urban areas and 1.1% (95%CI: 0.5%-1.8%) in rural areas. After age standardization, the incidence rate was significantly decreased, with an AAPC of -1.8% (95%CI: -2.4% to -1.2%), -1.6% (95%CI: -2.2% to -0.9%) in urban and -1.4% (95%CI: -2.5% to -0.3%) in rural areas. Liver cancer is a common cancer in China. As changing in people's dietary habits and implementing neonatal HBV vaccination for years, the exposure to risk factors is reducing, and age-standardized incidence rate is decreasing. While cardinal number of population is big and aging population is growing rapidly in the country, trend of incidence rate is increasing, and the burden of liver cancer is still high in China.

Population-level impact of white-nose syndrome on the endangered Indiana bat

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; King, R. Andrew; McKann, Patrick C.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.; Pruitt, Lori

2012-01-01

Establishing status and trend for an endangered species is critical to recovery, especially when it is faced with a nascent extinction agent. We calculated, with hierarchical log-linear change-point models, hibernaculum-level population trends between 1983 and 2009 for the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) now subjected to the fast-spreading fungal disease white-nose syndrome. We combined trends from 222 wintering populations before and after onset of the disease to determine trend for clusters of interacting wintering populations, recovery units, and the species. Before onset of the disease, a west-to-east gradient in trends existed, with westernmost populations declining and easternmost populations increasing in abundance. The species as a whole, however, was stationary between 1983 and 2005 (-0.5% mean annual change; 95% confidence interval [CI] = -2.8, +1.8%). Estimated mean population size in 2009 was 377,124 bats (195,398-957,348), with large variance apparently caused by white-nose syndrome. With the onset of white-nose syndrome (2006-2009), the species exhibited a 10.3% annual decline (95% CI = -21.1, +2.0%). White-nose syndrome is having an appreciable influence on the status and trends of Indiana bat populations, stalling and in some cases reversing population gains made in recent years.

Population trends of red-cockaded woodpeckers in Texas

Treesearch

Richard N. Conner; Daniel Saenz; D. Craig Rudolph

2006-01-01

tracked population trends of Red-cockaded Woodpeckers (Picoides borealis) in eastern Texas from 1983 through 2004. After declining precipitously during the 1980s, woodpecker population trends on federal lands (National Forests and Grasslands in Texas, but excluding the Big Thicket National Preserve) increased between 1990 and 2000, and have been...

Bi-phasic trends in mercury concentrations in blood of Wisconsin common loons during 1992–2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meyer, Michael W.; Rasmussen, Paul W.; Watras, Carl J.; Fevold, Brick M.; Kenow, Kevin P.

2011-01-01

Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources (WDNR) assessed the ecological risk of mercury (Hg) in aquatic systems by monitoring common loon (Gavia immer) population dynamics and blood Hg concentrations. We report temporal trends in blood Hg concentrations based on 334 samples collected from adults recaptured in subsequent years (resampled 2-9 times) and from 421 blood samples of chicks collected at lakes resampled 2-8 times 1992-2010.. Temporal trends were identified with generalized additive mixed effects models (GAMMs) and mixed effects models to account for the potential lack of independence among observations from the same loon or same lake. Trend analyses indicated that Hg concentrations in the blood of Wisconsin loons declined over the period 1992-2000, and increased during 2002-2010, but not to the level observed in the early 1990s. The best fitting linear mixed effects model included separate trends for the two time periods. The estimated trend in Hg concentration among the adult loon population during 1992-2000 was -2.6% per year and the estimated trend during 2002-2010 was +1.8% per year; chick blood Hg concentrations decreased by -6.5% per year during 1992-2000, but increased 1.8% per year during 2002-2010. This bi-phasic pattern is similar to trends observed for concentrations of methylmercury (meHg) and SO4 in lake water of a well studied seepage lake (Little Rock Lake, Vilas County) within our study area. A cause-effect relationship between these independent trends is hypothesized.

Atomic diffusion and mixing in old stars. V. A deeper look into the globular cluster NGC 6752

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gruyters, Pieter; Nordlander, Thomas; Korn, Andreas J.

2014-07-01

Context. Abundance trends in heavier elements with evolutionary phase have been shown to exist in the globular cluster NGC 6752 ([Fe / H] = -1.6). These trends are a result of atomic diffusion and additional (non-convective) mixing. Studying such trends can provide us with important constraints on the extent to which diffusion modifies the internal structure and surface abundances of solar-type, metal-poor stars. Aims: Taking advantage of a larger data sample, we investigate the reality and the size of these abundance trends and address questions and potential biases associated with the various stellar populations that make up NGC 6752. Methods: We perform an abundance analysis by combining photometric and spectroscopic data of 194 stars located between the turnoff point and the base of the red giant branch. Stellar parameters are derived from uvby Strömgren photometry. Using the quantitative-spectroscopy package SME, stellar surface abundances for light elements such as Li, Na, Mg, Al, and Si as well as heavier elements such as Ca, Ti, and Fe are derived in an automated way by fitting synthetic spectra to individual lines in the stellar spectra, obtained with the VLT/FLAMES-GIRAFFE spectrograph. Results: Based on uvby Strömgren photometry, we are able to separate three stellar populations in NGC 6752 along the evolutionary sequence from the base of the red giant branch down to the turnoff point. We find weak systematic abundance trends with evolutionary phase for Ca, Ti, and Fe which are best explained by stellar-structure models including atomic diffusion with efficient additional mixing. We derive a new value for the initial lithium abundance of NGC 6752 after correcting for the effect of atomic diffusion and additional mixing which falls slightly below the predicted standard BBN value. Conclusions: We find three stellar populations by combining photometric and spectroscopic data of 194 stars in the globular cluster NGC 6752. Abundance trends for groups of elements, differently affected by atomic diffusion and additional mixing, are identified. Although the statistical significance of the individual trends is weak, they all support the notion that atomic diffusion is operational along the evolutionary sequence of NGC 6752. Based on data collected at the ESO telescopes under programs 079.D-0645(A) and 081.D-0253(A).Full Tables 2 and 8 are only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (ftp://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/567/A72

Population Profile of the United States 1984-85.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Current Population Reports, 1987

1987-01-01

This population profile summarizes the wide range of demographic and socio-economic data collected from the Current Population Survey during 1984 and 1985. The report contains information on the following areas: National Population Trends; National Population Projections; Fertility; State Population Trends; The Metropolitan/Nonmetropolitan…

Monitoring Progress in Population Health: Trends in Premature Death Rates

PubMed Central

Catlin, Bridget B.; Kindig, David A.

2013-01-01

Introduction Trends in population health outcomes can be monitored to evaluate the performance of population health systems at the national, state, and local levels. The objective of this study was to compare and contrast 4 measures for assessing progress in population health improvement by using age-adjusted premature death rates as a summary measure of the overall health outcomes in the United States and in all 50 states. Methods To evaluate the performance of statewide population health systems during the past 20 years, we used 4 measures of age-adjusted premature (<75 years of age) death rates: current rates (2009), baseline trends (1990s), follow-up trends (2000s), and changes in trends from baseline to the follow-up periods (ie, “bending the curve”). Results Current premature death rates varied by approximately twofold, with the lowest rate in Minnesota (268 deaths per 100,000) and the highest rate in Mississippi (482 deaths per 100,000). Rates improved the most in New York during the baseline period (−3.05% per year) and in New Jersey during the follow-up period (−2.87% per year), whereas Oklahoma ranked last in trends during both periods (−0.30%/y, baseline; +0.18%/y, follow-up). Trends improved the most in Connecticut, bending the curve downward by −1.03%; trends worsened the most in New Mexico, bending the curve upward by 1.21%. Discussion Current premature death rates, recent trends, and changes in trends vary by state in the United States. Policy makers can use these measures to evaluate the long-term population health impact of broad health care, behavioral, social, and economic investments in population health. PMID:24370109

Arginine intake is associated with oxidative stress in a general population.

PubMed

Carvalho, Aline Martins de; Oliveira, Antonio Anax Falcão de; Loureiro, Ana Paula de Melo; Gattás, Gilka Jorge Figaro; Fisberg, Regina Mara; Marchioni, Dirce Maria

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to assess the association between protein and arginine from meat intake and oxidative stress in a general population. Data came from the Health Survey for Sao Paulo (ISA-Capital), a cross-sectional population-based study in Brazil (N = 549 adults). Food intake was estimated by a 24-h dietary recall. Oxidative stress was estimated by malondialdehyde (MDA) concentration in plasma. Analyses were performed using general linear regression models adjusted for some genetic, lifestyle, and biochemical confounders. MDA levels were associated with meat intake (P for linear trend = 0.031), protein from meat (P for linear trend = 0.006), and arginine from meat (P for linear trend = 0.044) after adjustments for confounders: age, sex, body mass index, smoking, physical activity, intake of fruit and vegetables, energy and heterocyclic amines, C-reactive protein levels, and polymorphisms in GSTM1 (glutathione S-transferase Mu 1) and GSTT1 (glutathione S-transferase theta 1) genes. Results were not significant for total protein and protein from vegetable intake (P > 0.05). High protein and arginine from meat intake were associated with oxidative stress independently of genetic, lifestyle, and biochemical confounders in a population-based study. Our results suggested a novel link between high protein/arginine intake and oxidative stress, which is a major cause of age-related diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Future of the American Family [And] Prospective Trends in the Size and Structure of the Elderly Population, Impact of Mortality Trends, and Some Implications. Current Population Reports, Special Studies Series P-23, No. 78.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glick, Paul C.; Siegel, Jacob S.

The document contains two reports on consequences of population trends for families and older adults in the United States. The reports were submitted as testimony before congressional committees on population and aging. The first report discusses projected changes in American family life in light of population growth, enrollment in schools and…

Socioeconomic Indicators for Small Towns. Small Town Strategy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oregon State Univ., Corvallis. Cooperative Extension Service.

Prepared to help small towns assess community population and economic trends, this publication provides a step-by-step guide for establishing an on-going local data collection system, which is based on four local indicators and will provide accurate, up-to-date estimates of population, family income, and gross sales within a town's trade area. The…

Demographic trends in Claremont California’s street tree population

Treesearch

Natalie S. van Doorn; E. Gregory McPherson

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to quantify street tree population dynamics in the city of Claremont, CA. A repeated measures survey (2000 and 2014) based on a stratified random sampling approach across size classes and for the most abundant 21 species was analyzed to calculate removal, growth, and replacement planting rates. Demographic rates were estimated using a...

Inaccuracies in oral cavity-pharynx cancer coded as the underlying cause of death on U.S. death certificates, and trends in mortality rates (1999-2010).

PubMed

Polednak, Anthony P

2014-08-01

To enhance surveillance of mortality from oral cavity-pharynx cancer (OCPC) by considering inaccuracies in the cancer site coded as the underlying cause of death on death certificates vs. cancer site in a population-based cancer registry (as the gold standard). A database was used for 9 population-based cancer registries of the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) Program, including deaths in 1999-2010 for patients diagnosed in 1973-2010. Numbers of deaths and death rates for OCPC in the SEER population were modified for apparent inaccuracies in the cancer site coded as the underlying cause of death. For age groups <65 years, deaths from OCPC were underestimated by 22-35% by using unmodified (vs. modified) numbers, but temporal declines in death rates were still evident in the SEER population and were similar to declines using routine mortality data for the entire U.S. population. Deaths were underestimated by about 70-80% using underlying cause for tonsillar cancers, strongly associated with human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, but a lack of decline in death rates was still evident. Routine mortality statistics based on underlying cause of death underestimate OCPC deaths but demonstrate trends in OCPC death rates that require continued surveillance in view of increasing incidence rates for HPV-related OCPC. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sex differences in lung cancer survival: long-term trends using population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan.

PubMed

Kinoshita, Fukuaki Lee; Ito, Yuri; Morishima, Toshitaka; Miyashiro, Isao; Nakayama, Tomio

2017-09-01

Several studies of sex differences in lung cancer survival have been reported. However, large-size population-based studies based on long-term observation are scarce. We investigated long-term trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival using population-based cancer registry data from Osaka, Japan. We analyzed 79 330 cases from the Osaka Cancer Registry (OCR) diagnosed between 1975 and 2007. We calculated 5-year relative survival in the six periods (1975-1980, 1981-1986, 1987-1992, 1993-1997, 1998-2002 and 2003-2007). To estimate the trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival throughout the study period, we applied a multivariate excess hazard model to control for confounders. The proportion of adenocarcinoma (ADC) and 5-year relative relative survival have increased for both sexes. Sex differences in lung cancer survival have widened over the period, especially in ADC and since the late 1990s. The excess hazard ratio of death within 5 years for males was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.16-1.21), adjusting for period at diagnosis, histologic type, stage, age group and treatment. We reported that females have better prognosis in lung cancer than males and the sex differences in lung cancer survival have become wider in Osaka, Japan. This can be partly explained by the sex differences in the proportions of histologic type and stage. Further studies considering other factors that influence sex differences in lung cancer survival are needed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight.

PubMed

Beaudrot, Lydia; Ahumada, Jorge A; O'Brien, Timothy; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Boekee, Kelly; Campos-Arceiz, Ahimsa; Eichberg, David; Espinosa, Santiago; Fegraus, Eric; Fletcher, Christine; Gajapersad, Krisna; Hallam, Chris; Hurtado, Johanna; Jansen, Patrick A; Kumar, Amit; Larney, Eileen; Lima, Marcela Guimarães Moreira; Mahony, Colin; Martin, Emanuel H; McWilliam, Alex; Mugerwa, Badru; Ndoundou-Hockemba, Mireille; Razafimahaimodison, Jean Claude; Romero-Saltos, Hugo; Rovero, Francesco; Salvador, Julia; Santos, Fernanda; Sheil, Douglas; Spironello, Wilson R; Willig, Michael R; Winarni, Nurul L; Zvoleff, Alex; Andelman, Sandy J

2016-01-01

Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world's species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity has hampered quantitative evaluation of conservation strategies. In particular, the scarcity of population-level monitoring in tropical forests has stymied assessment of biodiversity outcomes, such as the status and trends of animal populations in protected areas. Here, we evaluate occupancy trends for 511 populations of terrestrial mammals and birds, representing 244 species from 15 tropical forest protected areas on three continents. For the first time to our knowledge, we use annual surveys from tropical forests worldwide that employ a standardized camera trapping protocol, and we compute data analytics that correct for imperfect detection. We found that occupancy declined in 22%, increased in 17%, and exhibited no change in 22% of populations during the last 3-8 years, while 39% of populations were detected too infrequently to assess occupancy changes. Despite extensive variability in occupancy trends, these 15 tropical protected areas have not exhibited systematic declines in biodiversity (i.e., occupancy, richness, or evenness) at the community level. Our results differ from reports of widespread biodiversity declines based on aggregated secondary data and expert opinion and suggest less extreme deterioration in tropical forest protected areas. We simultaneously fill an important conservation data gap and demonstrate the value of large-scale monitoring infrastructure and powerful analytics, which can be scaled to incorporate additional sites, ecosystems, and monitoring methods. In an era of catastrophic biodiversity loss, robust indicators produced from standardized monitoring infrastructure are critical to accurately assess population outcomes and identify conservation strategies that can avert biodiversity collapse.

Standardized Assessment of Biodiversity Trends in Tropical Forest Protected Areas: The End Is Not in Sight

PubMed Central

O'Brien, Timothy; Alvarez-Loayza, Patricia; Boekee, Kelly; Campos-Arceiz, Ahimsa; Eichberg, David; Espinosa, Santiago; Fegraus, Eric; Fletcher, Christine; Gajapersad, Krisna; Hallam, Chris; Hurtado, Johanna; Jansen, Patrick A.; Kumar, Amit; Larney, Eileen; Lima, Marcela Guimarães Moreira; Mahony, Colin; Martin, Emanuel H.; McWilliam, Alex; Mugerwa, Badru; Ndoundou-Hockemba, Mireille; Razafimahaimodison, Jean Claude; Romero-Saltos, Hugo; Rovero, Francesco; Salvador, Julia; Santos, Fernanda; Sheil, Douglas; Spironello, Wilson R.; Willig, Michael R.; Winarni, Nurul L.; Zvoleff, Alex; Andelman, Sandy J.

2016-01-01

Extinction rates in the Anthropocene are three orders of magnitude higher than background and disproportionately occur in the tropics, home of half the world’s species. Despite global efforts to combat tropical species extinctions, lack of high-quality, objective information on tropical biodiversity has hampered quantitative evaluation of conservation strategies. In particular, the scarcity of population-level monitoring in tropical forests has stymied assessment of biodiversity outcomes, such as the status and trends of animal populations in protected areas. Here, we evaluate occupancy trends for 511 populations of terrestrial mammals and birds, representing 244 species from 15 tropical forest protected areas on three continents. For the first time to our knowledge, we use annual surveys from tropical forests worldwide that employ a standardized camera trapping protocol, and we compute data analytics that correct for imperfect detection. We found that occupancy declined in 22%, increased in 17%, and exhibited no change in 22% of populations during the last 3–8 years, while 39% of populations were detected too infrequently to assess occupancy changes. Despite extensive variability in occupancy trends, these 15 tropical protected areas have not exhibited systematic declines in biodiversity (i.e., occupancy, richness, or evenness) at the community level. Our results differ from reports of widespread biodiversity declines based on aggregated secondary data and expert opinion and suggest less extreme deterioration in tropical forest protected areas. We simultaneously fill an important conservation data gap and demonstrate the value of large-scale monitoring infrastructure and powerful analytics, which can be scaled to incorporate additional sites, ecosystems, and monitoring methods. In an era of catastrophic biodiversity loss, robust indicators produced from standardized monitoring infrastructure are critical to accurately assess population outcomes and identify conservation strategies that can avert biodiversity collapse. PMID:26785119

Estimating a Global Hydrological Carrying Capacity Using GRACE Observed Water Stress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, K.; Reager, J. T.; Famiglietti, J. S.

2013-12-01

Global population is expected to reach 9 billion people by the year 2050, causing increased demands for water and potential threats to human security. This study attempts to frame the overpopulation problem through a hydrological resources lens by hypothesizing that observed groundwater trends should be directly attributed to human water consumption. This study analyzes the relationships between available blue water, population, and cropland area on a global scale. Using satellite data from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) along with land surface model data from the Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS), a global groundwater depletion trend is isolated, the validity of which has been verified in many regional studies. By using the inherent distributions of these relationships, we estimate the regional populations that have exceeded their local hydrological carrying capacity. Globally, these populations sum to ~3.5 billion people that are living in presently water-stressed or potentially water-scarce regions, and we estimate total cropland is exceeding a sustainable threshold by about 80 million km^2. Key study areas such as the North China Plain, northwest India, and Mexico City were qualitatively chosen for further analysis of regional water resources and policies, based on our distributions of water stress. These case studies are used to verify the groundwater level changes seen in the GRACE trend . Tfor the many populous, arid regions of the world that have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand.he many populous, arid regions of the world have already begun to experience the strains of high water demand. It will take a global cooperative effort of improving domestic and agricultural use efficiency, and summoning a political will to prioritize environmental issues to adapt to a thirstier planet. Global Groundwater Depletion Trend (Mar 2003-Dec 2011)

Future cardiovascular disease in China: Markov model and risk factor scenario projections from the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model-China

PubMed Central

Moran, Andrew; Gu, Dongfeng; Zhao, Dong; Coxson, Pamela; Wang, Y. Claire; Chen, Chung-Shiuan; Liu, Jing; Cheng, Jun; Bibbins-Domingo, Kirsten; Shen, Yu-Ming; He, Jiang; Goldman, Lee

2010-01-01

Background The relative effects of individual and combined risk factor trends on future cardiovascular disease in China have not been quantified in detail. Methods and Results Future risk factor trends in China were projected based on prior trends. Cardiovascular disease (coronary heart disease and stroke) in adults ages 35 to 84 years was projected from 2010 to 2030 using the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model–China, a Markov computer simulation model. With risk factor levels held constant, projected annual cardiovascular events increased by >50% between 2010 and 2030 based on population aging and growth alone. Projected trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes (increases), and active smoking (decline) would increase annual cardiovascular disease events by an additional 23%, an increase of approximately 21.3 million cardiovascular events and 7.7 million cardiovascular deaths over 2010 to 2030. Aggressively reducing active smoking in Chinese men to 20% prevalence in 2020 and 10% prevalence in 2030 or reducing mean systolic blood pressure by 3.8 mm Hg in men and women would counteract adverse trends in other risk factors by preventing cardiovascular events and 2.9 to 5.7 million total deaths over 2 decades. Conclusions Aging and population growth will increase cardiovascular disease by more than a half over the coming 20 years, and projected unfavorable trends in blood pressure, total cholesterol, diabetes, and body mass index may accelerate the epidemic. National policy aimed at controlling blood pressure, smoking, and other risk factors would counteract the expected future cardiovascular disease epidemic in China. PMID:20442213

A comparative population-based study of prostate cancer incidence and mortality rates in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva, Switzerland from 1973 to 2006.

PubMed

Chen, Cynthia; Naidoo, Nasheen; Yang, Qian; Hartman, Mikael; Verkooijen, Helena M; Loy, En Yun; Bouchardy, Christine; Chia, Kee Seng; Chia, Sin Eng

2012-06-06

Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed malignancy in men in Sweden and Geneva, and the third most common in men in Singapore. This population-based study describes trends in the incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva (Switzerland) from 1973 to 2006 and explores possible explanations for these different trends. Data from patients diagnosed with prostate cancer were extracted from national cancer registries in Singapore (n = 5,172), Sweden (n = 188,783) and Geneva (n = 5,755) from 1973 to 2006. Trends of incidence and mortality were reported using the Poisson and negative binomial regression models. The age, period and birth-cohort were tested as predictors of incidence and mortality rates of prostate cancer. Incidence rates of prostate cancer increased over all time periods for all three populations. Based on the age-period-cohort analysis, older age and later period of diagnosis were associated with a higher incidence of prostate cancer, whereas older age and earlier period were associated with higher mortality rates for prostate cancer in all three countries. This study demonstrated an overall increase in incidence rates and decrease in mortality rates in Singapore, Sweden and Geneva. Both incidence and mortality rates were much lower in Singapore. The period effect is a stronger predictor of incidence and mortality of prostate cancer than the birth-cohort effect.

The Use of Surrogate Data in Demographic Population Viability Analysis: A Case Study of California Sea Lions

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Reliable data necessary to parameterize population models are seldom available for imperiled species. As an alternative, data from populations of the same species or from ecologically similar species have been used to construct models. In this study, we evaluated the use of demographic data collected at one California sea lion colony (Los Islotes) to predict the population dynamics of the same species from two other colonies (San Jorge and Granito) in the Gulf of California, Mexico, for which demographic data are lacking. To do so, we developed a stochastic demographic age-structured matrix model and conducted a population viability analysis for each colony. For the Los Islotes colony we used site-specific pup, juvenile, and adult survival probabilities, as well as birth rates for older females. For the other colonies, we used site-specific pup and juvenile survival probabilities, but used surrogate data from Los Islotes for adult survival probabilities and birth rates. We assessed these models by comparing simulated retrospective population trajectories to observed population trends based on count data. The projected population trajectories approximated the observed trends when surrogate data were used for one colony but failed to match for a second colony. Our results indicate that species-specific and even region-specific surrogate data may lead to erroneous conservation decisions. These results highlight the importance of using population-specific demographic data in assessing extinction risk. When vital rates are not available and immediate management actions must be taken, in particular for imperiled species, we recommend the use of surrogate data only when the populations appear to have similar population trends. PMID:26413746

Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Dorazio, Robert M.; Rice, Kenneth G.; Cherkiss, Michael; Jeffery, Brian

2011-01-01

Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001–2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations.

Estimating trends in alligator populations from nightlight survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fujisaki, Ikuko; Mazzotti, F.J.; Dorazio, R.M.; Rice, K.G.; Cherkiss, M.; Jeffery, B.

2011-01-01

Nightlight surveys are commonly used to evaluate status and trends of crocodilian populations, but imperfect detection caused by survey- and location-specific factors makes it difficult to draw population inferences accurately from uncorrected data. We used a two-stage hierarchical model comprising population abundance and detection probability to examine recent abundance trends of American alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) in subareas of Everglades wetlands in Florida using nightlight survey data. During 2001-2008, there were declining trends in abundance of small and/or medium sized animals in a majority of subareas, whereas abundance of large sized animals had either demonstrated an increased or unclear trend. For small and large sized class animals, estimated detection probability declined as water depth increased. Detection probability of small animals was much lower than for larger size classes. The declining trend of smaller alligators may reflect a natural population response to the fluctuating environment of Everglades wetlands under modified hydrology. It may have negative implications for the future of alligator populations in this region, particularly if habitat conditions do not favor recruitment of offspring in the near term. Our study provides a foundation to improve inferences made from nightlight surveys of other crocodilian populations. ?? 2011 US Government.

Population based study of rates of multiple pregnancies in Denmark, 1980-94.

PubMed Central

Westergaard, T.; Wohlfahrt, J.; Aaby, P.; Melbye, M.

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To study trends in multiple pregnancies not explained by changes in maternal age and parity patterns. DESIGN: Trends in population based figures for multiple pregnancies in Denmark studied from complete national records on parity history and vital status. POPULATION: 497,979 Danish women and 803,019 pregnancies, 1980-94. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: National rates of multiple pregnancies, infant mortality, and stillbirths controlled for maternal age and parity. Special emphasis on primiparous women > or = 30 years of age, who are most likely to undergo fertility treatment. RESULTS: The national incidence of multiple pregnancies increased 1.7-fold during 1980-94, the increase primarily in 1989-94 and almost exclusively in primiparous women aged > or = 30 years, for whom the adjusted population based twinning rate increased 2.7-fold and the triplet rate 9.1-fold. During 1989-94, the adjusted yearly increase in multiple pregnancies for these women was 19% (95% confidence interval 16% to 21%) and in dizygotic twin pregnancies 25% (21% to 28%). The proportion of multiple births among infant deaths in primiparous women > or = 30 years increased from 11.5% to 26.9% during the study period. The total infant mortality, however, did not increase for these women because of a simultaneous significant decrease in infant mortality among singletons. CONCLUSIONS: A relatively small group of women has drastically changed the overall national rates of multiple pregnancies. The introduction of new treatments to enhance fertility has probably caused these changes and has also affected the otherwise decreasing trend in infant mortality. Consequently, the resources, both economical and otherwise, associated with these treatments go well beyond those invested in specific fertility enhancing treatments. PMID:9080993

The Breeding Bird Survey: Its first fifteen years, 1965-1979

USGS Publications Warehouse

Robbins, C.S.; Bystrak, D.; Geissler, P.H.

1986-01-01

The Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) is an ongoing cooperative program sponsored jointly by the U.S. Fish and Wildife Service and the Canadian Wildlife Service. Its main purpose is to estimate population trends of the many species of birds that nest in North America north of Mexico and that migrate across international boundaries. This survey provides information, both locally by ecological or political regions and on a continental scale, on (1) short-term population changes that can be correlated with specific weather incidents, (2) recovery periods following catastrophic declines, (3) normal year-to-year variations, (4) long-term population trends, and (5) invasions of exotics. The BBS also permits detailed computer mapping of relative abundance of each species, either year by year to show changes in distribution and relative abundance, or the average over a period of years. It provides base-line data with which more intensive local studies can be compared. For biogeographic studies it provides uniform sampling of bird populations by major physiographic regions across the continent. In conjunction with the Audubon Christmas Bird Count, it permits comparison of summer and winter distribution of species that winter in the United States. Most species of North American birds migrate across international boundaries, especially those shared with Canada, Mexico, and the Soviet Union. As part of our responsibility under treaties with these nations, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service has developed the BBS to monitor avian population changes so that any adverse trends can be detected early. This provides the opportunity to determine the reasons for any increase or decrease, to define geographic areas in which changes are greatest, to study correlations between avian population changes and land-use changes, and to make recommendations for controlling undesirable bird population trends. For example, the BBS can be used to detect and estimate the extent of losses resulting from widespread use of pesticides, and to reveal whether major population changes of a given species (e.g., Dickcissel) in certain States are related to a continental decline or are merely a result of population shifts within the breeding range. Effects of urban and suburban expansion are often reflected in the loss of forest interior birds. Population trends for 230 species as well as several avian genera and families are discussed and graphed in this report. For most of these species, regional and well as continental trends are shown. The three major regions discussed are the Eastern, Central, and Western, bounded by the Mississippi River and the eastern base of the Rocky Mountains. Additional graphs for certain States or physiographic regions are included for selected species of special interest. The following paragraphs summarize general trends in the major bird families. The native herons in general are maintaining their populations, whereas the exotic Cattle Egret continues its geographic spread and its steady increase. Waterfowl as a group are stable or increasing. Although most widespread species of hawks are on the increase, the rarer species show evidence of decline. Among the gallinaceous birds, the greatest change was a sharp drop in Northern Bobwhite as a result of the exceptionally cold winters of 1976-77 and 1977-78 in the Ohio Valley and the Middle Atlantic States. Killdeer populations, except for a minor decline during these two winters, showed strong increases except in the West. American Woodcock were poorly sampled by the BBS because they were relatively inactive during daylight. Common Snipe and the other common shorebirds that nest in the United States and southern Canada exhibited stable or increasing populations, especially in the Eastern and Central regions. Herring Gull counts varied dramatically and irregularly from year to year. Laughing Gulls increased along the Atlantic coast and Franklin's Gulls declined in the interior of the continen

The Trend in Histological Changes and the Incidence of Esophagus Cancer in Iran (2003-2008).

PubMed

Rafiemanesh, Hosein; Maleki, Farzad; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, Abdollah; Salemi, Morteza; Salehiniya, Hamid

2016-01-01

Esophageal cancer is the sixth cause of death in the world, there was a lack of population-based information on the trend and incidence rate of esophagus cancer, so this study aimed to determine the incidence and pathological changes of esophagus cancer in Iran. In this study, data were extracted from annual cancer registry reports of Iranian ministry of health between 2003 and 2008. Standardized incidence rates were calculated using the world standard population, and incidence rate was calculated by age groups, sex, and histological type. Data on epidemiologic trend and histology were analyzed using Joinpoint software package. In this study, there were 18,177 recorded cases of esophagus cancer. Of all cases, 45.72% were females and 54.28% were males. Sex ratio was 1.19. The most common histological types related to squamous cell carcinoma NOS and adenocarcinoma NOS were 64.53% and 10.37%, respectively. The trend of annual changes of incidence rate significantly increased in both sexes. The annual percentage changes, the incidence rate was 7.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.3-12.6) for women and 9.6 (95% CI: 6.0-13.2) for men. The histology type of SCC, large cell, nonkeratinizing and SCC, keratinizing and SCC, NOS had a significant decreasing trend in total population (P < 0.05). According to this study, the trend of age-standardized incidence rate of esophagus cancer in Iran is rising. Hence, to prevent and control this cancer, it is necessary to investigate related risk factors and implement prevention programs in Iran.

Population-wide weight loss and regain in relation to diabetes burden and cardiovascular mortality in Cuba 1980-2010: repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends.

PubMed

Franco, Manuel; Bilal, Usama; Orduñez, Pedro; Benet, Mikhail; Morejón, Alain; Caballero, Benjamín; Kennelly, Joan F; Cooper, Richard S

2013-04-09

To evaluate the associations between population-wide loss and gain in weight with diabetes prevalence, incidence, and mortality, as well as cardiovascular and cancer mortality trends, in Cuba over a 30 year interval. Repeated cross sectional surveys and ecological comparison of secular trends. Cuba and the province of Cienfuegos, from 1980 to 2010. Measurements in Cienfuegos included a representative sample of 1657, 1351, 1667, and 1492 adults in 1991, 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. National surveys included a representative sample of 14 304, 22 851, and 8031 participants in 1995, 2001, and 2010, respectively. Changes in smoking, daily energy intake, physical activity, and body weight were tracked from 1980 to 2010 using national and regional surveys. Data for diabetes prevalence and incidence were obtained from national population based registries. Mortality trends were modelled using national vital statistics. Rapid declines in diabetes and heart disease accompanied an average population-wide loss of 5.5 kg in weight, driven by an economic crisis in the mid-1990s. A rebound in population weight followed in 1995 (33.5% prevalence of overweight and obesity) and exceeded pre-crisis levels by 2010 (52.9% prevalence). The population-wide increase in weight was immediately followed by a 116% increase in diabetes prevalence and 140% increase in diabetes incidence. Six years into the weight rebound phase, diabetes mortality increased by 49% (from 9.3 deaths per 10 000 people in 2002 to 13.9 deaths per 10 000 people in 2010). A deceleration in the rate of decline in mortality from coronary heart disease was also observed. In relation to the Cuban experience in 1980-2010, there is an association at the population level between weight reduction and death from diabetes and cardiovascular disease; the opposite effect on the diabetes and cardiovascular burden was seen on population-wide weight gain.

Lack of exercise of "moderate to vigorous" intensity in people with low levels of physical activity is a major discriminant for sociodemographic factors and morbidity.

PubMed

Serrano-Sánchez, José A; Bello-Luján, Luis M; Auyanet-Batista, Juan M; Fernández-Rodríguez, María J; González-Henríquez, Juan J

2014-01-01

The aim is to examine the differences between participation at low and zero moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in relation to their trends and associations with known socio-demographic and health factors. We hypothesised that the number of people at zero MVPA level could be rising despite a parallel increase in the population meeting the recommended MVPA level. We also hypothesised that graded associations of sociodemographic and health factors exist across MVPA levels. Two independent population-based samples (n = 4320 [2004] and n = 2176 [1997]), were recruited with a stratified and random sampling procedure and interviewed at home by professional interviewers. The MVPA was assessed by validated questionnaire. The participants were classified into three MVPA levels: zero, low and recommended MVPA. The trend of each MVPA level was analysed with the standardized prevalence ratios. Correlates of low and zero MVPA levels were examined using multinomial logistic regression. The population at zero and recommended MVPA levels rose between 1997-2004 by 12% (95% CI, 5-20%) and 7% (95% CI,-4-19%) respectively, while the population at low MVPA level decreased. At zero MVPA level, associative patterns were observed with sociodemographic and health factors which were different when compared to the population at low MVPA level. Despite the slight increase of population meeting the recommended MVPA level, a higher trend of increase was observed at zero MVPA level. Both recommended and low MPVA levels increased their participation by absorbing participants from the low MVPA level. The sociodemographic profile of those with low MVPA was more similar to the population at recommended MVPA than at zero MVPA level. Methodological implications about the combination of light and moderate-intensity PA could be derived. The prevention of decline in actual low MVPA could change the trend of increase in the population at zero MVPA level, particularly among young adults.

Lack of Exercise of "Moderate to Vigorous" Intensity in People with Low Levels of Physical Activity Is a Major Discriminant for Sociodemographic Factors and Morbidity

PubMed Central

Serrano-Sánchez, José A.; Bello-Luján, Luis M.; Auyanet-Batista, Juan M.; Fernández-Rodríguez, María J.; González-Henríquez, Juan J.

2014-01-01

Introduction The aim is to examine the differences between participation at low and zero moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in relation to their trends and associations with known socio-demographic and health factors. We hypothesised that the number of people at zero MVPA level could be rising despite a parallel increase in the population meeting the recommended MVPA level. We also hypothesised that graded associations of sociodemographic and health factors exist across MVPA levels. Methods Two independent population-based samples (n = 4320 [2004] and n = 2176 [1997]), were recruited with a stratified and random sampling procedure and interviewed at home by professional interviewers. The MVPA was assessed by validated questionnaire. The participants were classified into three MVPA levels: zero, low and recommended MVPA. The trend of each MVPA level was analysed with the standardized prevalence ratios. Correlates of low and zero MVPA levels were examined using multinomial logistic regression. Results The population at zero and recommended MVPA levels rose between 1997–2004 by 12% (95% CI, 5–20%) and 7% (95% CI,−4–19%) respectively, while the population at low MVPA level decreased. At zero MVPA level, associative patterns were observed with sociodemographic and health factors which were different when compared to the population at low MVPA level. Conclusions Despite the slight increase of population meeting the recommended MVPA level, a higher trend of increase was observed at zero MVPA level. Both recommended and low MPVA levels increased their participation by absorbing participants from the low MVPA level. The sociodemographic profile of those with low MVPA was more similar to the population at recommended MVPA than at zero MVPA level. Methodological implications about the combination of light and moderate-intensity PA could be derived. The prevention of decline in actual low MVPA could change the trend of increase in the population at zero MVPA level, particularly among young adults. PMID:25522144

Determinants and trends in health facility-based deliveries and caesarean sections among married adolescent girls in Bangladesh.

PubMed

Shahabuddin, A S M; Delvaux, Thérèse; Utz, Bettina; Bardají, Azucena; De Brouwere, Vincent

2016-09-15

To identify the determinants and measure the trends in health facility-based deliveries and caesarean sections among married adolescent girls in Bangladesh. In order to measure the trends in health facility-based deliveries and caesarean sections, Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) data sets were analysed (BDHS; 1993-1994, 1996-1997, 1999-2000, 2004, 2007, 2011). The BDHS 2011 data sets were analysed to identify the determinants of health facility-based deliveries and caesarean sections. A total of 2813 adolescent girls (aged 10-19 years) were included for analysis. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed. Health facility-based deliveries have continuously increased among adolescents in Bangladesh over the past two decades from 3% in 1993-1994 to 24.5% in 2011. Rates of population-based and facility-based caesarean sections have increased linearly among all age groups of women including adolescents. Although the country's overall (population-based) caesarean section rate among adolescents was within acceptable range (11.6%), a rate of nearly 50% health facility level caesarean sections among adolescent girls is alarming. Among adolescent girls, use of antenatal care (ANC) appeared to be the most important predictor of health facility-based delivery (OR: 4.04; 95% CI 2.73 to 5.99), whereas the wealth index appeared as the most important predictor of caesarean sections (OR: 5.7; 95% CI 2.74 to 12.1). Maternal health-related interventions should be more targeted towards adolescent girls in order to encourage them to access ANC and promote health facility-based delivery. Rising trends of caesarean sections require further investigation on indication and provider-client-related determinants of these interventions among adolescent girls in Bangladesh. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Trends in chemical concentration in sediment cores from three lakes in New Jersey and one lake on Long Island, New York

USGS Publications Warehouse

Long, Gary R.; Ayers, Mark A.; Callender, Edward; Van Metre, Peter C.

2003-01-01

Data from this study indicate that changes in population, land use, and chemical use in the urbanized watersheds over the period of sedimentary record have contributed to upward trends in concentrations of trace elements and hydrophobic organic compounds. Although downward trends were observed for some constituents in the years after their concentrations peaked, concentrations of most constituents in urban lake cores were higher in the most recently deposited sediments than at the base of each respective core and in the reference lake cores. Similar trends in concentrations of these constituents have been observed in sediment cores from other urban lakes across the United States.

Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

2017-01-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

2017-11-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Endometrial Cancer Trends by Race and Histology in the USA: Projecting the Number of New Cases from 2015 to 2040.

PubMed

Gaber, Charles; Meza, Rafael; Ruterbusch, Julie J; Cote, Michele L

2016-10-17

The aim of this study is to explore incidence and incidence-based mortality trends for endometrial cancer in the USA and project future incident cases, accounting for differences by race and histological subtype. Data on age-adjusted and age-specific incidence and mortality rates of endometrial cancer were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18 registries. Trends in rates were analyzed using Joinpoint regression, and average annual percent change (AAPC) in recent years (2006-2011) was computed for histological subtypes by race. Age, histological, and race-specific rates were applied to US Census Bureau population census estimates to project new cases from 2015 to 2040, accounting for observed AAPC trends, which were progressively attenuated for the future years. The annual number of cases is projected to increase substantially from 2015 to 2040 across all racial groups. Considerable variation in incidence and mortality trends was observed both between and within racial groups when considering histology. As the US population undergoes demographic changes, incidence of endometrial cancer is projected to rise. The increase will occur in all racial groups, but larger increases will be seen in aggressive histology subtypes that disproportionately affect black women.

Diabetes mortality in Serbia, 1991-2015 (a nationwide study): A joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Ilic, Milena; Ilic, Irena

2017-02-01

The aim of this study was to analyze the mortality trends of diabetes mellitus in Serbia (excluding the Autonomous Province of Kosovo and Metohia). A population-based cross sectional study analyzing diabetes mortality in Serbia in the period 1991-2015 was carried out based on official data. The age-standardized mortality rates (per 100,000) were calculated by direct standardization, using the European Standard Population. Average annual percentage of change (AAPC) and the corresponding 95% confidence interval (CI) were computed using the joinpoint regression analysis. More than 63,000 (about 27,000 of men and 36,000 of women) diabetes deaths occurred in Serbia from 1991 to 2015. Death rates from diabetes were almost equal in men and in women (about 24.0 per 100,000) and places Serbia among the countries with the highest diabetes mortality rates in Europe. Since 1991, mortality from diabetes in men significantly increased by +1.2% per year (95% CI 0.7-1.7), but non-significantly increased in women by +0.2% per year (95% CI -0.4 to 0.7). Increased trends in diabetes type 1 mortality rates were significant in both genders in Serbia. Trends in mortality for diabetes type 2 showed a significant decrease in both genders since 2010. Given that diabetes mortality trends showed different patterns during the studied period, our results imply that further observation of trend is needed. Copyright © 2016 Primary Care Diabetes Europe. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An estimate of the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Getachew, Yehenew; Gotu, Butte; Enquselassie, Fikre

2010-10-01

Since early 1980s when AIDS was first recognized, there has been uncertainty about the future trend and the ultimate dimensions of the pandemic. This uncertainty persists because of difficulties in measuring HIV incidence and prevalence with a substantial degree of precision in a given population. One of the many factors for the lack of precision is the problem of obtaining representative data sources that can be extrapolated to the general population. National and regional HIV estimates for Ethiopia are derived from ANC based HIV surveillance data. Alternative data sources have not been exhaustively explored as potential tools to monitor the trend of HIV/ AIDS epidemic in the country. To estimate the magnitude and trend of HIV/AIDS epidemic using data from the routine VCT services as an alternative data source to ANC sentinel surveillance data. The study used secondary data sources from all government, private and NGO VCT centers, of the period of 2003-2005 in Addis Ababa. For the purpose of making comparative analysis of the VCT based estimations and projections, records of all five sentinel sites in Addis Ababa for the period 1983-2003 were reviewed. Both ANC and VCT data sources showed similar and regular trends from the beginning of the HIV epidemic till the year 1995 where the ANC showed a relatively higher prevalence rates than VCT data, with a maximum difference in HIV prevalence of 1.06% in 1993. However, a higher HIV prevalence was noted for the VCT than the ANC data source for the period of 1996-2002, with a maximum difference of 1.4% in 1998, the year when both the ANC and VCT modeled HIV prevalence reached the highest peak in Addis Ababa. On the contrary, the ANC based prevalence was higher than the VCT data for the period 2004-2010, with a maximum difference of 2.2%. This study suggests that VCT based HIV prevalence data closely approximates the ANC based data. Therefore VCT data source can be valuable to complement the ANC data in monitoring the HIV epidemic and trend.

Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges.

PubMed

Jiguet, Frédéric; Devictor, Vincent; Ottvall, Richard; Van Turnhout, Chris; Van der Jeugd, Henk; Lindström, Ake

2010-12-07

Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the populations locations within the species thermal range. We compared the average 20 year growth rates of 62 terrestrial breeding birds in three European countries along the latitudinal gradient of the species ranges. After controlling for factors already reported to affect bird population trends (habitat specialization, migration distance and body mass), we found that populations breeding close to the species thermal maximum have lower growth rates than those in other parts of the thermal range, while those breeding close to the species thermal minimum have higher growth rates. These results were maintained even after having controlled for the effect of latitude per se. Therefore, the results cannot solely be explained by latitudinal clines linked to the geographical structure in local spring warming. Indeed, we found that populations are not just responding to changes in temperature at the hottest and coolest parts of the species range, but that they show a linear graded response across their European thermal range. We thus provide insights into how populations respond to climate changes. We suggest that projections of future species distributions, and also management options and conservation assessments, cannot be based on the assumption of a uniform response to climate change across a species range or at range edges only.

Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment

PubMed Central

Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J.

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis. PMID:25760037

Future coastal population growth and exposure to sea-level rise and coastal flooding--a global assessment.

PubMed

Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T; Zimmermann, Juliane; Nicholls, Robert J

2015-01-01

Coastal zones are exposed to a range of coastal hazards including sea-level rise with its related effects. At the same time, they are more densely populated than the hinterland and exhibit higher rates of population growth and urbanisation. As this trend is expected to continue into the future, we investigate how coastal populations will be affected by such impacts at global and regional scales by the years 2030 and 2060. Starting from baseline population estimates for the year 2000, we assess future population change in the low-elevation coastal zone and trends in exposure to 100-year coastal floods based on four different sea-level and socio-economic scenarios. Our method accounts for differential growth of coastal areas against the land-locked hinterland and for trends of urbanisation and expansive urban growth, as currently observed, but does not explicitly consider possible displacement or out-migration due to factors such as sea-level rise. We combine spatially explicit estimates of the baseline population with demographic data in order to derive scenario-driven projections of coastal population development. Our scenarios show that the number of people living in the low-elevation coastal zone, as well as the number of people exposed to flooding from 1-in-100 year storm surge events, is highest in Asia. China, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Viet Nam are estimated to have the highest total coastal population exposure in the baseline year and this ranking is expected to remain largely unchanged in the future. However, Africa is expected to experience the highest rates of population growth and urbanisation in the coastal zone, particularly in Egypt and sub-Saharan countries in Western and Eastern Africa. The results highlight countries and regions with a high degree of exposure to coastal flooding and help identifying regions where policies and adaptive planning for building resilient coastal communities are not only desirable but essential. Furthermore, we identify needs for further research and scope for improvement in this kind of scenario-based exposure analysis.

Simulations inform design of regional occupancy-based monitoring for a sparsely distributed, territorial species

Treesearch

Quresh S. Latif; Martha M. Ellis; Victoria A. Saab; Kim Mellen-McLean

2017-01-01

Sparsely distributed species attract conservation concern, but insufficient information on population trends challenges conservation and funding prioritization. Occupancy-based monitoring is attractive for these species, but appropriate sampling design and inference depend on particulars of the study system. We employed spatially explicit simulations to identify...

32 CFR 105.14 - Training requirements for DoD personnel.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...-based, real-life situations to demonstrate the entire cycle of prevention, reporting, response, and...) Explain the nature of sexual assault in the military environment using scenario-based, real-life... rape myths (See SAPR Toolkit on www.sapr.mil), facts, and trends pertaining to the military population...

32 CFR 105.14 - Training requirements for DoD personnel.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

...-based, real-life situations to demonstrate the entire cycle of prevention, reporting, response, and...) Explain the nature of sexual assault in the military environment using scenario-based, real-life... rape myths (See SAPR Toolkit on www.sapr.mil), facts, and trends pertaining to the military population...

Recurrent jellyfish blooms are a consequence of global oscillations

PubMed Central

Condon, Robert H.; Duarte, Carlos M.; Pitt, Kylie A.; Robinson, Kelly L.; Lucas, Cathy H.; Sutherland, Kelly R.; Mianzan, Hermes W.; Bogeberg, Molly; Purcell, Jennifer E.; Decker, Mary Beth; Uye, Shin-ichi; Madin, Laurence P.; Brodeur, Richard D.; Haddock, Steven H. D.; Malej, Alenka; Parry, Gregory D.; Eriksen, Elena; Quiñones, Javier; Acha, Marcelo; Harvey, Michel; Arthur, James M.; Graham, William M.

2013-01-01

A perceived recent increase in global jellyfish abundance has been portrayed as a symptom of degraded oceans. This perception is based primarily on a few case studies and anecdotal evidence, but a formal analysis of global temporal trends in jellyfish populations has been missing. Here, we analyze all available long-term datasets on changes in jellyfish abundance across multiple coastal stations, using linear and logistic mixed models and effect-size analysis to show that there is no robust evidence for a global increase in jellyfish. Although there has been a small linear increase in jellyfish since the 1970s, this trend was unsubstantiated by effect-size analysis that showed no difference in the proportion of increasing vs. decreasing jellyfish populations over all time periods examined. Rather, the strongest nonrandom trend indicated jellyfish populations undergo larger, worldwide oscillations with an approximate 20-y periodicity, including a rising phase during the 1990s that contributed to the perception of a global increase in jellyfish abundance. Sustained monitoring is required over the next decade to elucidate with statistical confidence whether the weak increasing linear trend in jellyfish after 1970 is an actual shift in the baseline or part of an oscillation. Irrespective of the nature of increase, given the potential damage posed by jellyfish blooms to fisheries, tourism, and other human industries, our findings foretell recurrent phases of rise and fall in jellyfish populations that society should be prepared to face. PMID:23277544

Independent Demographic Responses to Climate Change among Temperate and Tropical Milksnakes (Colubridae: Genus Lampropeltis)

PubMed Central

Ruane, Sara; Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Burbrink, Frank T.

2015-01-01

The effects of Late Quaternary climate change have been examined for many temperate New World taxa, but the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on Neotropical taxa is less well understood, specifically with respect to changes in population demography. Here, we examine historical demographic trends for six species of milksnake with representatives in both the temperate and tropical Americas to determine if species share responses to climate change as a taxon or by area (i.e., temperate versus tropical environments). Using a multilocus dataset, we test for the demographic signature of population expansion and decline using non-genealogical summary statistics, as well as coalescent-based methods. In addition, we determine whether range sizes are correlated with effective population sizes for milksnakes. Results indicate that there are no identifiable trends with respect to demographic response based on location, and that species responded to changing climates independently, with tropical taxa showing greater instability. There is also no correlation between range size and effective population size, with the largest population size belonging to the species with the smallest geographic distribution. Our study highlights the importance of not generalizing the demographic histories of taxa by region and further illustrates that the New World tropics may not have been a stable refuge during the Pleistocene. PMID:26083467

Independent Demographic Responses to Climate Change among Temperate and Tropical Milksnakes (Colubridae: Genus Lampropeltis).

PubMed

Ruane, Sara; Torres-Carvajal, Omar; Burbrink, Frank T

2015-01-01

The effects of Late Quaternary climate change have been examined for many temperate New World taxa, but the impact of Pleistocene glacial cycles on Neotropical taxa is less well understood, specifically with respect to changes in population demography. Here, we examine historical demographic trends for six species of milksnake with representatives in both the temperate and tropical Americas to determine if species share responses to climate change as a taxon or by area (i.e., temperate versus tropical environments). Using a multilocus dataset, we test for the demographic signature of population expansion and decline using non-genealogical summary statistics, as well as coalescent-based methods. In addition, we determine whether range sizes are correlated with effective population sizes for milksnakes. Results indicate that there are no identifiable trends with respect to demographic response based on location, and that species responded to changing climates independently, with tropical taxa showing greater instability. There is also no correlation between range size and effective population size, with the largest population size belonging to the species with the smallest geographic distribution. Our study highlights the importance of not generalizing the demographic histories of taxa by region and further illustrates that the New World tropics may not have been a stable refuge during the Pleistocene.

A checklist approach for monitoring neotropical migrant birds: Twenty-year trends in birds of Quebec Using EPOQ

Treesearch

Andre Cyr; Jacques Larivee

1993-01-01

EPOQ (Studies of Bird Populations in Quebec) is a data base on birds of Quebec containing more than 2.2 million records of observations recorded on 158,000 checklists from 3,600 observation sites since 1950. Trends were measured for each of four subsets of EPOQ data between 1970 and 1989 (all year, spring (April-May), summer (June-July), and fall (August-October) as...

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

van Ruijven, Bas J.; Daenzer, Katie; Fisher-Vanden, Karen

This article provides an overview of the base-year assumptions and core baseline projections for the set of models participating in the LAMP and CLIMACAP projects. Here we present the range in core baseline projections for Latin America, and identify key differences between model projections including how these projections compare to historic trends. We find relatively large differences across models in base year assumptions related to population, GDP, energy and CO 2 emissions due to the use of different data sources, but also conclude that this does not influence the range of projections. We find that population and GDP projections acrossmore » models span a broad range, comparable to the range represented by the set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Kaya-factor decomposition indicates that the set of core baseline scenarios mirrors trends experienced over the past decades. Emissions in Latin America are projected to rise as result of GDP and population growth and a minor shift in the energy mix toward fossil fuels. Most scenarios assume a somewhat higher GDP growth than historically observed and continued decline of population growth. Minor changes in energy intensity or energy mix are projected over the next few decades.« less

Satellite-Based Tropospheric NO2 Column Trends in the Last 10 Years Over Mexican Urban Areas Measured by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivera, C. I.; Stremme, W.; Grutter, M.

2015-12-01

Population density and economic activities in urban agglomerations have drastically increased in many cities in Mexico during the last decade. Several factors are responsible for increased urbanization such as a shift of people from rural to urban areas while looking for better education, services and job opportunities as well as the natural growth of the urban areas themselves. Urbanization can create great social, economic and environmental pressures and changes which can easily be observed in most urban agglomerations in the world. In this study, we have focused on analyzing tropospheric NO2 (nitrogen dioxide) column trends over Mexican urban areas that have a population of at least one million inhabitants according to the latest 2010 population census. Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) measurements of NO2 conducted by the space-borne Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board the Aura satellite between 2005 and 2014 have been used for this analysis. This dataset has allowed us to obtain a satellite-based 10-year tropospheric NO2 column trend over the most populated Mexican cities which include the dominating metropolitan area of Mexico City with more than twenty million inhabitants as well as ten other Mexican cities with a population ranging between one to five million inhabitants with a wide range of activities (commercial, agricultural or heavily industrialized) as well as two important border crossings. Distribution maps of tropospheric NO2 columns above the studied urban agglomerations were reconstructed from the analyzed OMI dataset, allowing to identify areas of interest due to clear NO2 enhancements inside these urban regions.

The risk of hepatocellular carcinoma among individuals with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome in the United States.

PubMed

Sahasrabuddhe, Vikrant V; Shiels, Meredith S; McGlynn, Katherine A; Engels, Eric A

2012-12-15

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a concern among individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The authors analyzed population-based registry linkage data from the US HIV/AIDS Cancer Match Study (1980-2009) to examine the risk and trends of HCC among individuals with AIDS. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were used to measure HCC risk relative to the general population, and Poisson regression was used to calculate incidence rate ratios (RR) comparing incidence among individuals with AIDS. People with AIDS were categorized according to their HIV risk group into high and low hepatitis C virus (HCV) prevalence groups based on their HIV transmission risk category. Among 615,150 individuals with AIDS, HCC risk was elevated almost 4 times compared with the risk in the general population (N = 366; SIR, 3.8; 95% confidence interval, 3.5-4.3). Although HCC incidence increased steadily across calendar periods (P(trend) < .0001; adjusted for sex and age), the excess risk in individuals with AIDS compared with the general population remained somewhat constant (SIRs range, 3.5-3.9) between the monotherapy/dual therapy era (1990-1995) and the recent highly active antiretroviral therapy era (2001-2009). In a multivariate model adjusting for sex, race/ethnicity, and attained calendar period, HCC incidence increased with advancing age (P(trend) < .0001) and was associated with HIV risk groups with a known higher prevalence of HCV (adjusted RR, 2.2; 95% confidence interval, 1.8-2.8). HCC incidence in individuals with AIDS has increased over time despite improved HIV treatment regimens, likely reflecting prolonged survival with chronic liver disease. The high incidence in older adults suggests that this cancer will increase in importance with aging of the HIV-infected population. Published 2012 American Cancer Society.

Relationship between plasma 25-hydroxymitamin D and leucocyte telomere length by sex and race in a US study.

PubMed

Liu, Jason J; Cahoon, Elizabeth K; Linet, Martha S; Little, Mark P; Dagnall, Casey L; Higson, Herbert; Savage, Sharon A; Freedman, D Michal

2016-09-01

A few studies have examined the association between vitamin D and telomere length, and fewer still have examined the relationship in black or male populations. We investigated the cross-sectional association between the vitamin D metabolite 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentration in plasma and relative leucocyte telomere length (LTL) in 1154 US radiologic technologists who were 48-93 years old (373 white females, 278 white males, 338 black females, 165 black males). Plasma 25(OH)D concentration was measured by the chemiluminescence immunoassay, and relative LTL was measured by quantitative PCR. Logistic regression was used to obtain OR and 95 % CI for long v. short (based on median) LTL in relation to continuous 25(OH)D, quartiles of 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D deficiency. We found no significant association between continuous 25(OH)D and long LTL in all participants (P trend=0·440), nor in white females (P trend=0·845), white males (P trend=0·636), black females (P trend=0·967) or black males (P trend=0·484). Vitamin D deficiency (defined as 25(OH)D<30 nmol/l), however, was significantly associated with short LTL in whites (P=0·024), but not in other groups. In this population, we found little evidence to support associations between 25(OH)D and long LTL over the entire range of 25(OH)D in the overall study population or by sex and race.

Estimating prevalence trends in adult gonorrhoea and syphilis in low- and middle-income countries with the Spectrum-STI model: results for Zimbabwe and Morocco from 1995 to 2016.

PubMed

Korenromp, Eline L; Mahiané, Guy; Rowley, Jane; Nagelkerke, Nico; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Ndowa, Francis; El-Kettani, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Mayaud, Philippe; Chico, R Matthew; Pretorius, Carel; Hecht, Kendall; Wi, Teodora

2017-12-01

To develop a tool for estimating national trends in adult prevalence of sexually transmitted infections by low- and middle-income countries, using standardised, routinely collected programme indicator data. The Spectrum-STI model fits time trends in the prevalence of active syphilis through logistic regression on prevalence data from antenatal clinic-based surveys, routine antenatal screening and general population surveys where available, weighting data by their national coverage and representativeness. Gonorrhoea prevalence was fitted as a moving average on population surveys (from the country, neighbouring countries and historic regional estimates), with trends informed additionally by urethral discharge case reports, where these were considered to have reasonably stable completeness. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, high-risk populations not sampled, urban/rural and male/female prevalence ratios, using WHO's assumptions from latest global and regional-level estimations. Uncertainty intervals were obtained by bootstrap resampling. Estimated syphilis prevalence (in men and women) declined from 1.9% (95% CI 1.1% to 3.4%) in 2000 to 1.5% (1.3% to 1.8%) in 2016 in Zimbabwe, and from 1.5% (0.76% to 1.9%) to 0.55% (0.30% to 0.93%) in Morocco. At these time points, gonorrhoea estimates for women aged 15-49 years were 2.5% (95% CI 1.1% to 4.6%) and 3.8% (1.8% to 6.7%) in Zimbabwe; and 0.6% (0.3% to 1.1%) and 0.36% (0.1% to 1.0%) in Morocco, with male gonorrhoea prevalences 14% lower than female prevalence. This epidemiological framework facilitates data review, validation and strategic analysis, prioritisation of data collection needs and surveillance strengthening by national experts. We estimated ongoing syphilis declines in both Zimbabwe and Morocco. For gonorrhoea, time trends were less certain, lacking recent population-based surveys. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

A hierarchical model for estimating change in American Woodcock populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Kendall, W.L.; Kelley, J.R.; Niven, D.K.

2008-01-01

The Singing-Ground Survey (SGS) is a primary source of information on population change for American woodcock (Scolopax minor). We analyzed the SGS using a hierarchical log-linear model and compared the estimates of change and annual indices of abundance to a route regression analysis of SGS data. We also grouped SGS routes into Bird Conservation Regions (BCRs) and estimated population change and annual indices using BCRs within states and provinces as strata. Based on the hierarchical model?based estimates, we concluded that woodcock populations were declining in North America between 1968 and 2006 (trend = -0.9%/yr, 95% credible interval: -1.2, -0.5). Singing-Ground Survey results are generally similar between analytical approaches, but the hierarchical model has several important advantages over the route regression. Hierarchical models better accommodate changes in survey efficiency over time and space by treating strata, years, and observers as random effects in the context of a log-linear model, providing trend estimates that are derived directly from the annual indices. We also conducted a hierarchical model analysis of woodcock data from the Christmas Bird Count and the North American Breeding Bird Survey. All surveys showed general consistency in patterns of population change, but the SGS had the shortest credible intervals. We suggest that population management and conservation planning for woodcock involving interpretation of the SGS use estimates provided by the hierarchical model.

Mississippi's Farming & Nonfarming Population: A Comparison of Characteristics and Trends, 1950 to 1970.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bryant, Ellen S.

Trends and changes in Mississippi farms, farmers, and farm populations were investigated for the period between 1950 and 1970 and comparisons were made between the farm population and that of the urban and rural nonfarm segments in terms of growth trends and 1970 characteristics. Data were drawn from both the Censuses of Agriculture (taken at five…

The Diversity-Weighted Living Planet Index: Controlling for Taxonomic Bias in a Global Biodiversity Indicator.

PubMed

McRae, Louise; Deinet, Stefanie; Freeman, Robin

2017-01-01

As threats to species continue to increase, precise and unbiased measures of the impact these pressures are having on global biodiversity are urgently needed. Some existing indicators of the status and trends of biodiversity largely rely on publicly available data from the scientific and grey literature, and are therefore prone to biases introduced through over-representation of well-studied groups and regions in monitoring schemes. This can give misleading estimates of biodiversity trends. Here, we report on an approach to tackle taxonomic and geographic bias in one such indicator (Living Planet Index) by accounting for the estimated number of species within biogeographical realms, and the relative diversity of species within them. Based on a proportionally weighted index, we estimate a global population decline in vertebrate species between 1970 and 2012 of 58% rather than 20% from an index with no proportional weighting. From this data set, comprising 14,152 populations of 3,706 species from 3,095 data sources, we also find that freshwater populations have declined by 81%, marine populations by 36%, and terrestrial populations by 38% when using proportional weighting (compared to trends of -46%, +12% and +15% respectively). These results not only show starker declines than previously estimated, but suggests that those species for which there is poorer data coverage may be declining more rapidly.

The Diversity-Weighted Living Planet Index: Controlling for Taxonomic Bias in a Global Biodiversity Indicator

PubMed Central

Deinet, Stefanie; Freeman, Robin

2017-01-01

As threats to species continue to increase, precise and unbiased measures of the impact these pressures are having on global biodiversity are urgently needed. Some existing indicators of the status and trends of biodiversity largely rely on publicly available data from the scientific and grey literature, and are therefore prone to biases introduced through over-representation of well-studied groups and regions in monitoring schemes. This can give misleading estimates of biodiversity trends. Here, we report on an approach to tackle taxonomic and geographic bias in one such indicator (Living Planet Index) by accounting for the estimated number of species within biogeographical realms, and the relative diversity of species within them. Based on a proportionally weighted index, we estimate a global population decline in vertebrate species between 1970 and 2012 of 58% rather than 20% from an index with no proportional weighting. From this data set, comprising 14,152 populations of 3,706 species from 3,095 data sources, we also find that freshwater populations have declined by 81%, marine populations by 36%, and terrestrial populations by 38% when using proportional weighting (compared to trends of -46%, +12% and +15% respectively). These results not only show starker declines than previously estimated, but suggests that those species for which there is poorer data coverage may be declining more rapidly. PMID:28045977

Welfare state retrenchment and increasing mental health inequality by educational credentials in Finland: a multicohort study

PubMed Central

Kokkinen, Lauri; Muntaner, Carles; Kouvonen, Anne; Koskinen, Aki; Varje, Pekka; Väänänen, Ari

2015-01-01

Objectives Epidemiological studies have shown an association between educational credentials and mental disorders, but have not offered any explanation for the varying strength of this association in different historical contexts. In this study, we investigate the education-specific trends in hospitalisation due to psychiatric disorders in Finnish working-age men and women between 1976 and 2010, and offer a welfare state explanation for the secular trends found. Setting Population-based setting with a 25% random sample of the population aged 30–65 years in 7 independent consecutive cohorts (1976–1980, 1981–1985, 1986–1990, 1991–1995, 1996–2000, 2001–2005, 2006–2010). Participants Participants were randomly selected from the Statistics Finland population database (n=2 865 746). These data were linked to diagnosis-specific records on hospitalisations, drawn from the National Hospital Discharge Registry using personal identification numbers. Employment rates by educational credentials were drawn from the Statistics Finland employment database. Primary and secondary outcome measures Hospitalisation and employment. Results We found an increasing trend in psychiatric hospitalisation rates among the population with only an elementary school education, and a decreasing trend in those with higher educational credentials. The employment rate of the population with only an elementary school education decreased more than that of those with higher educational credentials. Conclusions We propose that restricted employment opportunities are the main mechanism behind the increased educational inequality in hospitalisation for psychiatric disorders, while several secondary mechanisms (lack of outpatient healthcare services, welfare cuts, decreased alcohol duty) further accelerated the diverging long-term trends. All of these inequality-increasing mechanisms were activated by welfare state retrenchment, which included the liberalisation of financial markets and labour markets, severe austerity measures and narrowing down of public sector employment commitment. PMID:26041491

Trends and predictors of outcomes after surgery for hepatocellular carcinoma: A nationwide population-based study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chiu, C-C; Wang, J-J; Chen, Y-S; Chen, J-J; Tsai, T-C; Lai, C-C; Sun, D-P; Shi, H-Y

2015-09-01

Despite the huge and growing global burden of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), high-quality population-based studies of HCC prevalence and outcomes are scarce. To analyze trends and predictors of hospital resource utilization and mortality rates in a population of patients who had received HCC surgery. This population-based patient cohort study retrospectively analyzed 23,107 patients who had received surgical treatment for HCC from 1998 to 2009. The prevalence rate of surgical treatment in HCC patients significantly increased by 167.4% from 4.857 per 100,000 persons in 1998 to 12.989 per 100,000 persons in 2009 (P < 0.001). Age, gender, Deyo-Charlson co-morbidity index score, hospital volume, surgeon volume, digestive system disease, hepatitis type and liver cirrhosis were significantly associated with HCC surgical outcomes (P < 0.05). Over the 12-year period analyzed, the estimated mean hospital treatment cost increased 9.4% whereas mean length of stay (LOS) decreased 25.3%. The estimated mean overall survival time after HCC surgery was 40.9 months (SD 1.2 months), and the overall in-hospital 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 97.2%, 79.9%, 61.1%, and 54.6%, respectively. These population-based data reveal that the prevalence of HCC has increased, especially in older patients. Additionally, hospital treatment costs for HCC have increased despite decreases in LOS. These analytical results should be applicable to most countries with relatively small populations. Additionally, healthcare providers and patients should recognize that attributes of both the patient and the hospital may affect outcomes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population growth rates of reef sharks with and without fishing on the great barrier reef: robust estimation with multiple models.

PubMed

Hisano, Mizue; Connolly, Sean R; Robbins, William D

2011-01-01

Overfishing of sharks is a global concern, with increasing numbers of species threatened by overfishing. For many sharks, both catch rates and underwater visual surveys have been criticized as indices of abundance. In this context, estimation of population trends using individual demographic rates provides an important alternative means of assessing population status. However, such estimates involve uncertainties that must be appropriately characterized to credibly and effectively inform conservation efforts and management. Incorporating uncertainties into population assessment is especially important when key demographic rates are obtained via indirect methods, as is often the case for mortality rates of marine organisms subject to fishing. Here, focusing on two reef shark species on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, we estimated natural and total mortality rates using several indirect methods, and determined the population growth rates resulting from each. We used bootstrapping to quantify the uncertainty associated with each estimate, and to evaluate the extent of agreement between estimates. Multiple models produced highly concordant natural and total mortality rates, and associated population growth rates, once the uncertainties associated with the individual estimates were taken into account. Consensus estimates of natural and total population growth across multiple models support the hypothesis that these species are declining rapidly due to fishing, in contrast to conclusions previously drawn from catch rate trends. Moreover, quantitative projections of abundance differences on fished versus unfished reefs, based on the population growth rate estimates, are comparable to those found in previous studies using underwater visual surveys. These findings appear to justify management actions to substantially reduce the fishing mortality of reef sharks. They also highlight the potential utility of rigorously characterizing uncertainty, and applying multiple assessment methods, to obtain robust estimates of population trends in species threatened by overfishing.

Population Growth Rates of Reef Sharks with and without Fishing on the Great Barrier Reef: Robust Estimation with Multiple Models

PubMed Central

Hisano, Mizue; Connolly, Sean R.; Robbins, William D.

2011-01-01

Overfishing of sharks is a global concern, with increasing numbers of species threatened by overfishing. For many sharks, both catch rates and underwater visual surveys have been criticized as indices of abundance. In this context, estimation of population trends using individual demographic rates provides an important alternative means of assessing population status. However, such estimates involve uncertainties that must be appropriately characterized to credibly and effectively inform conservation efforts and management. Incorporating uncertainties into population assessment is especially important when key demographic rates are obtained via indirect methods, as is often the case for mortality rates of marine organisms subject to fishing. Here, focusing on two reef shark species on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia, we estimated natural and total mortality rates using several indirect methods, and determined the population growth rates resulting from each. We used bootstrapping to quantify the uncertainty associated with each estimate, and to evaluate the extent of agreement between estimates. Multiple models produced highly concordant natural and total mortality rates, and associated population growth rates, once the uncertainties associated with the individual estimates were taken into account. Consensus estimates of natural and total population growth across multiple models support the hypothesis that these species are declining rapidly due to fishing, in contrast to conclusions previously drawn from catch rate trends. Moreover, quantitative projections of abundance differences on fished versus unfished reefs, based on the population growth rate estimates, are comparable to those found in previous studies using underwater visual surveys. These findings appear to justify management actions to substantially reduce the fishing mortality of reef sharks. They also highlight the potential utility of rigorously characterizing uncertainty, and applying multiple assessment methods, to obtain robust estimates of population trends in species threatened by overfishing. PMID:21966402

Predictive global trends in the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer based on geographic location, socio-economic status, and demographic shift.

PubMed

Are, Chandrakanth; Chowdhury, Sanjib; Ahmad, Humera; Ravipati, Advaitaa; Song, Tianqiang; Shrikandhe, Shailesh; Smith, Lynette

2016-11-01

Pancreatic Cancer (PC) is a lethal malignancy that accounts for about 4% of cancer-related deaths worldwide. The aim of this study is to describe the influence of geography (based on WHO regions), socio-economic development (based on Human Development Index [HDI]) and demographic shift on the temporal trends in global incidence and mortality of PC. Data (2012-2030) relating to the incidence, mortality of PC and demographic shifts based on WHO regions and HDI areas were extracted from GLOBOCAN 2012. Linear regression was used to evaluate trends in total incidence and mortality. We noted a definite association between PC and higher socio-economic status. Advanced age (age ≥65) contributed to the rising burden in all socio-economic regions of the world except in the Low Human Development (LHD) countries where the disease predominantly affected population <65 years of age. The global burden of PC is expected to rise significantly over the next few decades regardless of geographic location, socio-economic development, age and gender. Advance knowledge of this data can help formulate strategies to specifically target countries and populations that promote public health policy to tackle this lethal disease on the global stage. J. Surg. Oncol. 2016;114:736-742. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cause-specific sickness absence trends by occupational class and industrial sector in the context of recent labour market changes: a Finnish panel data study

PubMed Central

Leinonen, Taina; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Husgafvel-Pursiainen, Kirsti; Solovieva, Svetlana

2018-01-01

Objectives We aimed to provide previously unestablished information on population-based differences in cause-specific sickness absence trends between occupational classes and further between four large industrial sectors within the different occupational classes while controlling for other socioeconomic factors and employment patterns. We focused on the period 2005–2013, during which the labour market underwent large economic and structural changes in many countries. Design Register-based panel data study. Setting Large representative datasets on Finnish wage earners aged 25–59 years. Outcome measure Annual risk of sickness absence (>10 working days) based on repeated logistic regression. Results Between 2005 and 2013, the proportion of employees with sickness absence decreased. Occupational class differences in sickness absence trends varied by disease group. Overall, the decrease in absences was smallest among lower non-manual employees. Sickness absence levels were highest in the health and social work sector and in the manufacturing sector within the non-manual and manual classes, respectively. Absences due to musculoskeletal diseases decreased temporarily during the peak of the economic recession in 2009, particularly in the manufacturing sector within the manual class. The decrease in absences due to musculoskeletal diseases was smallest in the trade sector within the lower occupational classes. Overall, education, income and employment patterns partly explained the differences in the absence levels, but not in the trends. Conclusions We found a complex interplay between the associations of occupational class and industrial sector with sickness absence trends. During the economic recession, absences due to musculoskeletal diseases decreased temporarily in a segment of wage earners who were known to have been hit hard by the recession. However, the trend differences were not explained by the measured structural changes in the characteristics of the study population. Both occupational class and industrial sector should be taken into account when tackling problems of work disability. PMID:29627810

Assessment of child psychomotor development in population groups as a positive health indicator.

PubMed

Lejarraga, Horacio; Kelmansky, Diana M; Passcucci, María C; Masautis, Alicia; Insua, Iván; Lejarraga, Celina; Nunes, Fernando

2016-02-01

It is necessary to use health indicators describing the conditions of all individuals in a population, not just of those who have a disease or die. To introduce a method to collect population indicators of psychomotor development in children younger than 6 years old and show its results. Data were obtained from a cross-sectional assessment regarding compliance with 13 developmental milestones (selected from the national reference) conducted in 5465 children using five surveys administered by the Matanza-Riachuelo River Basin Authority in areas of this basin where a high proportion of families with unmet basic needs live. For each survey, a logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the median age at attainment of the 13 developmental milestones. A linear regression model between the estimated age at attainment of the 13 milestones was adjusted for each survey based on the corresponding age at attainment of the national reference. Based on this model, three indicators were defined: overall developmental quotient, developmental quotient at 4 years old, and developmental trend. Results from the five surveys ranged between 0.74 and 0.85, 0.88 and 0.81, and -0.15 and -0.26 for the overall developmental quotient, developmental quotient at 4 years old, and developmental trend, respectively. A distinct developmental delay and an increasing trend in delay with age were observed. Indicators are easily interpreted and related to social indicators (unmet basic needs, etc.). Collecting the information necessary to make estimations takes little time and can be applied to population groups, but not on an individual level. Sociedad Argentina de Pediatría.

Innovations in medical care and mortality trends from four circulatory diseases between 1970 and 2005.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Rasmus; Plug, Iris; McKee, Martin; Khoshaba, Bernadette; Westerling, Ragnar; Looman, Caspar; Rey, Gregoire; Jougla, Eric; Luis Alfonso, Jose; Lang, Katrin; Pärna, Kersti; Mackenbach, Johan P

2013-10-01

Governments have identified innovation in pharmaceuticals and medical technology as a priority for health policy. Although the contribution of medical care to health has been studied extensively in clinical settings, much less is known about its contribution to population health. We examine how innovations in the management of four circulatory disorders have influenced trends in cause-specific mortality at the population level. Based on literature reviews, we selected six medical innovations with proven effectiveness against hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, heart failure and cerebrovascular disease. We combined data on the timing of these innovations and cause-specific mortality trends (1970-2005) from seven European countries. We sought to identify associations between the introduction of innovations and favourable changes in mortality, using Joinpoint-models based on linear spline regression. For both ischaemic heart disease and cerebrovascular disease, the timing of medical innovations was associated with improved mortality in four out of five countries and five out of seven countries, respectively, depending on the innovation. This suggests that innovation has impacted positively on mortality at the population level. For hypertension and heart failure, such associations could not be identified. Although improvements in cause-specific mortality coincide with the introduction of some innovations, this is not invariably true. This is likely to reflect the incremental effects of many interventions, the time taken for them to be adopted fully and the presence of contemporaneous changes in disease incidence. Research on the impact of medical innovations on population health is limited by unreliable data on their introduction.

[On the economy of "wealth of people": demographic-political theories in the Austria of enlightened absolutism].

PubMed

Wichtl, T

1985-01-01

"This essay focuses on mercantilist theories and interpretations of demographic trends [in Austria] in the late 18th century." The writings of several mercantilist authors are summarized, and the influence of their views on population policy is discussed. It is noted that the official population policy, which aimed at fast population growth to strengthen the economy and increase the number of soldiers, was based on the mercantilist theory that greater population size means higher per capita incomes. (summary in ENG) excerpt

[Oral cancer in Cali, Colombia: a population-based analysis of incidence and mortality trends].

PubMed

Ordóñez, Dora; Aragón, Natalia; García, Luz Stella; Collazos, Paola; Bravo, Luis Eduardo

2014-01-01

To describe the time trends of the incidence and mortality rates of oral cancer (OC) in Cali, Colombia between 1962-2007. Age-standardized (Segi's world population) incidence (ASIR) and mortality (ASMR) rates for oral cancer were estimated using data from the Population-based Cancer Registry of Cali, Colombia and from the database of the Municipal Secretary of Public Health (MSPH) respectively. Annual percentage change (APC) was used to measure the changes in rates over time. 1637 new cases of oral cancer were registered in the CPCR and the mean age upon diagnosis was 60 years. The ASIR decreased from 1962-2007 in men APC= 1.3 (IC95%:-2.0; -0.6) and women APC= -1.0 (IC95%: -1.7; -0.4).The ASMR decreased from 1984-2001 only in men, APC=2.8 (IC95%: -4.1; -1.5). There was a significant decrease in the incidence and mortality rates for OC in Cali, Colombia. The type of tumor associated to these changes was the squamous cell carcinoma.

Temporal trends in population-based death rates associated with chronic liver disease and liver cancer in the United States over the last 30 years.

PubMed

Kim, Yuhree; Ejaz, Aslam; Tayal, Amit; Spolverato, Gaya; Bridges, John F P; Anders, Robert A; Pawlik, Timothy M

2014-10-01

The health and economic burden from liver disease in the United States is substantial and rising. The objective of this study was to characterize temporal trends in mortality from chronic liver disease and liver cancer and the incidence of associated risk factors using population-based data over the past 30 years. Population-based mortality data were obtained from the National Vital Statistics System, and population estimates were derived from the national census for US adults (aged >45 years). Crude death rates (CDRs), age-adjusted death rates (ADRs), and average annual percentage change (AAPC) statistics were calculated. In total, 690,414 deaths (1.1%) were attributable to chronic liver disease, whereas 331,393 deaths (0.5%) were attributable to liver cancer between 1981 and 2010. The incidence of liver cancer was estimated at 7.1 cases per 100,000 population. Mortality rates from chronic liver disease and liver cancer increased substantially over the past 3 decades, with ADRs of 23.7 and 16.6 per 100,000 population in 2010, respectively. The AAPC from 2006 to 2010 demonstrated an increased ADR for chronic liver disease (AAPC, 1.5%; 95% confidence interval, 0.3%-2.8%) and liver cancer (AAPC, 2.6%; 95% confidence interval, 2.4%-2.7%). A comprehensive approach that involves primary and secondary prevention, increased access to treatment, and more funding for liver-related research is needed to address the high death rates associated with chronic liver disease and liver cancer in the United States. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

Indicators of AEI applied to the Delaware Estuary.

PubMed

Barnthouse, Lawrence W; Heimbuch, Douglas G; Anthony, Vaughn C; Hilborn, Ray W; Myers, Ransom A

2002-05-18

We evaluated the impacts of entrainment and impingement at the Salem Generating Station on fish populations and communities in the Delaware Estuary. In the absence of an agreed-upon regulatory definition of "adverse environmental impact" (AEI), we developed three independent benchmarks of AEI based on observed or predicted changes that could threaten the sustainability of a population or the integrity of a community. Our benchmarks of AEI included: (1) disruption of the balanced indigenous community of fish in the vicinity of Salem (the "BIC" analysis); (2) a continued downward trend in the abundance of one or more susceptible fish species (the "Trends" analysis); and (3) occurrence of entrainment/impingement mortality sufficient, in combination with fishing mortality, to jeopardize the future sustainability of one or more populations (the "Stock Jeopardy" analysis). The BIC analysis utilized nearly 30 years of species presence/absence data collected in the immediate vicinity of Salem. The Trends analysis examined three independent data sets that document trends in the abundance of juvenile fish throughout the estuary over the past 20 years. The Stock Jeopardy analysis used two different assessment models to quantify potential long-term impacts of entrainment and impingement on susceptible fish populations. For one of these models, the compensatory capacities of the modeled species were quantified through meta-analysis of spawner-recruit data available for several hundred fish stocks. All three analyses indicated that the fish populations and communities of the Delaware Estuary are healthy and show no evidence of an adverse impact due to Salem. Although the specific models and analyses used at Salem are not applicable to every facility, we believe that a weight of evidence approach that evaluates multiple benchmarks of AEI using both retrospective and predictive methods is the best approach for assessing entrainment and impingement impacts at existing facilities.

Population Aging at Cross-Roads: Diverging Secular Trends in Average Cognitive Functioning and Physical Health in the Older Population of Germany

PubMed Central

Steiber, Nadia

2015-01-01

This paper uses individual-level data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to model trends in population health in terms of cognition, physical fitness, and mental health between 2006 and 2012. The focus is on the population aged 50–90. We use a repeated population-based cross-sectional design. As outcome measures, we use SF-12 measures of physical and mental health and the Symbol-Digit Test (SDT) that captures cognitive processing speed. In line with previous research we find a highly significant Flynn effect on cognition; i.e., SDT scores are higher among those who were tested more recently (at the same age). This result holds for men and women, all age groups, and across all levels of education. While we observe a secular improvement in terms of cognitive functioning, at the same time, average physical and mental health has declined. The decline in average physical health is shown to be stronger for men than for women and found to be strongest for low-educated, young-old men aged 50–64: the decline over the 6-year interval in average physical health is estimated to amount to about 0.37 SD, whereas average fluid cognition improved by about 0.29 SD. This pattern of results at the population-level (trends in average population health) stands in interesting contrast to the positive association of physical health and cognitive functioning at the individual-level. The findings underscore the multi-dimensionality of health and the aging process. PMID:26323093

Use of Mobile Device Data To Better Estimate Dynamic Population Size for Wastewater-Based Epidemiology.

PubMed

Thomas, Kevin V; Amador, Arturo; Baz-Lomba, Jose Antonio; Reid, Malcolm

2017-10-03

Wastewater-based epidemiology is an established approach for quantifying community drug use and has recently been applied to estimate population exposure to contaminants such as pesticides and phthalate plasticizers. A major source of uncertainty in the population weighted biomarker loads generated is related to estimating the number of people present in a sewer catchment at the time of sample collection. Here, the population quantified from mobile device-based population activity patterns was used to provide dynamic population normalized loads of illicit drugs and pharmaceuticals during a known period of high net fluctuation in the catchment population. Mobile device-based population activity patterns have for the first time quantified the high degree of intraday, week, and month variability within a specific sewer catchment. Dynamic population normalization showed that per capita pharmaceutical use remained unchanged during the period when static normalization would have indicated an average reduction of up to 31%. Per capita illicit drug use increased significantly during the monitoring period, an observation that was only possible to measure using dynamic population normalization. The study quantitatively confirms previous assessments that population estimates can account for uncertainties of up to 55% in static normalized data. Mobile device-based population activity patterns allow for dynamic normalization that yields much improved temporal and spatial trend analysis.

The Labor Market Problems of the Nation's Out-of-School Youth Population. Policy Issues Monograph 96-01.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sum, Andrew; Fogg, W. Neal

A study examined the labor market problems of the United States' out-of-school youth population and trends in the development and attempted solution of those problems over the past 20 years. The study's major areas of focus were as follows: trends in the nation's out-of-school youth population's size and demographic composition; trends in the…

Secular Trend of Metabolic Syndrome and Its Components in a Cohort of Iranian Adults from 2001 to 2013.

PubMed

Khosravi-Boroujeni, Hossein; Sarrafzadegan, Nizal; Sadeghi, Masoumeh; Roohafza, Hamidreza; Talaei, Mohammad; Ng, Shu-Kay; Phung, Hai; Pourmogaddas, Ali; Ahmed, Faruk

2017-04-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components increase the risk of developing cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes, and all-cause mortality. Reports on the trends of MetS and its components in longitudinal studies are scarce, especially in low- and middle-income countries. This study was designed to investigate the prevalence and trends of MetS and its components in a cohort of Iranian adults from 2001 to 2013. Participants were followed up for 12 years in a longitudinal population-based study of 6500 adults aged 35 years and older in 2001. Participants were randomly selected from three provinces in central Iran. Sociodemographic characteristics, anthropometry, blood pressure, and various biochemical indices were collected in 2001, 2007, and 2013. Secular trend and age-adjusted trend of MetS and its components were calculated from 2001 to 2013. The standardized prevalence of MetS, hypertension, low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), abdominal obesity, and diabetes/impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) increased over the 12 years (6.9%, 5.5%, 12.0%, 2.3%, and 18.7%, respectively), while the prevalence of hypertriglyceridemia decreased by 15.5% during this period. The prevalence of MetS, low HDL-C, and abdominal obesity were higher in females than males in all three phases. Moreover, the increases in the prevalence of these metabolic abnormalities were higher in the rural population than in the urban population. The present study underscored the increasing trends in MetS and most of its risk factors, thus, to prevent an increase in the cardiovascular risk factors, there is a need to improve lifestyle by education, screening, and treatment of abnormalities.

The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance.

PubMed

Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John; Korenromp, Eline L

2017-01-01

Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco's national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612-37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0-3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000-2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal programmatic screening, which should help update and re-calibrate next trend estimations.

The prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in women in Morocco, 1995-2016: Model-based estimation and implications for STI surveillance

PubMed Central

Bennani, Aziza; El-Kettani, Amina; Hançali, Amina; El-Rhilani, Houssine; Alami, Kamal; Youbi, Mohamed; Rowley, Jane; Abu-Raddad, Laith; Smolak, Alex; Taylor, Melanie; Mahiané, Guy; Stover, John

2017-01-01

Background Evolving health priorities and resource constraints mean that countries require data on trends in sexually transmitted infections (STI) burden, to inform program planning and resource allocation. We applied the Spectrum STI estimation tool to estimate the prevalence and incidence of active syphilis in adult women in Morocco over 1995 to 2016. The results from the analysis are being used to inform Morocco’s national HIV/STI strategy, target setting and program evaluation. Methods Syphilis prevalence levels and trends were fitted through logistic regression to data from surveys in antenatal clinics, women attending family planning clinics and other general adult populations, as available post-1995. Prevalence data were adjusted for diagnostic test performance, and for the contribution of higher-risk populations not sampled in surveys. Incidence was inferred from prevalence by adjusting for the average duration of infection with active syphilis. Results In 2016, active syphilis prevalence was estimated to be 0.56% in women 15 to 49 years of age (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.3%-1.0%), and around 21,675 (10,612–37,198) new syphilis infections have occurred. The analysis shows a steady decline in prevalence from 1995, when the prevalence was estimated to be 1.8% (1.0–3.5%). The decline was consistent with decreasing prevalences observed in TB patients, fishermen and prisoners followed over 2000–2012 through sentinel surveillance, and with a decline since 2003 in national HIV incidence estimated earlier through independent modelling. Conclusions Periodic population-based surveys allowed Morocco to estimate syphilis prevalence and incidence trends. This first-ever undertaking engaged and focused national stakeholders, and confirmed the still considerable syphilis burden. The latest survey was done in 2012 and so the trends are relatively uncertain after 2012. From 2017 Morocco plans to implement a system to record data from routine antenatal programmatic screening, which should help update and re-calibrate next trend estimations. PMID:28837558

Occupational Exposure to Benzene and Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma in a Population-Based Cohort: The Shanghai Women's Health Study.

PubMed

Bassig, Bryan A; Friesen, Melissa C; Vermeulen, Roel; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Purdue, Mark P; Stewart, Patricia A; Xiang, Yong-Bing; Chow, Wong-Ho; Zheng, Tongzhang; Ji, Bu-Tian; Yang, Gong; Linet, Martha S; Hu, Wei; Zhang, Heping; Zheng, Wei; Gao, Yu-Tang; Rothman, Nathaniel; Lan, Qing

2015-10-01

The association between benzene exposure and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) has been the subject of debate as a result of inconsistent epidemiologic evidence. An International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) working group evaluated benzene in 2009 and noted evidence for a positive association between benzene exposure and NHL risk. We evaluated the association between occupational benzene exposure and NHL among 73,087 women enrolled in the prospective population-based Shanghai Women's Health Study. Benzene exposure estimates were derived using a previously developed exposure assessment framework that combined ordinal job-exposure matrix intensity ratings with quantitative benzene exposure measurements from an inspection database of Shanghai factories collected between 1954 and 2000. Associations between benzene exposure metrics and NHL (n = 102 cases) were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models, with study follow-up occurring from December 1996 through December 2009. Women ever exposed to benzene had a significantly higher risk of NHL [hazard ratio (HR) = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.19, 2.96]. Compared with unexposed women, significant trends in NHL risk were observed for increasing years of benzene exposure (p(trend) = 0.006) and increasing cumulative exposure levels (p(trend) = 0.005), with the highest duration and cumulative exposure tertiles having a significantly higher association with NHL (HR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.07, 4.01 and HR = 2.16, 95% CI: 1.17, 3.98, respectively). Our findings, using a population-based prospective cohort of women with diverse occupational histories, provide additional evidence that occupational exposure to benzene is associated with NHL risk.

Retirement before Age 65. Trends, Costs, and National Issues. Report to the Chairman, Select Committee on Aging, House of Representatives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

General Accounting Office, Washington, DC.

Two issues were analyzed--the changing characteristics of early pension recipients and the costs of early retirement. The analyses covered men and women aged 50 and older and were based primarily on data from the Census Bureau's March 1984 Current Population Survey. Findings showed that the percentage of the population receiving employer-sponsored…

Selected Characteristics of the Spanish-Origin Population in Illinois and Some Related Educational Trends With Reference to Northern Illinois University and Its Service Area.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baca, Orlando G.

The document presents the beginnings of a data base for educational policy and program planning at Northern Illinois University regarding the Spanish-origin population of its service area, and was compiled from numerous surveys conducted by various agencies, groups, and individuals. The quantitative description of the Spanish speaking presented…

Twenty-year trends in the incidence and prevalence of diagnosed anogenital warts in Canada.

PubMed

Kliewer, Erich V; Demers, Alain A; Elliott, Lawrence; Lotocki, Robert; Butler, James R G; Brisson, Marc

2009-06-01

A vaccine has recently been licensed in many countries that protects against the human papillomavirus types 6, 11, 16, and 18. Types 6 and 11 account for approximately 90% of anogenital warts (AGWs). We describe the 20-year trends in the incidence and prevalence of AGWs in Manitoba, Canada. We used linked population-based hospital and physician databases for Manitoba for 1984 to 2004. Cases were identified using tariff (billing) and ICD codes. A case was considered to be incident if it was preceded by a 12-month interval free period of AGWs care. Otherwise, it was deemed to be prevalent. An episode was considered over once a 12-month interval had elapsed without an AGW claim. Approximately 25,000 Manitobans were diagnosed with AGWs between 1985 and 2004. The annual age-standardized incidence rates peaked in 1992 (men, 149.9/100,000; women 170.8/100,000). In recent years, the rates have been increasing again, particularly for men. The male:female incidence rate ratio increased from 0.76 in 1985 to 1.25 in 2004. The highest incidence rate tended to be in those aged 20 to 24 years. Trends in prevalence were similar. Prevalence in 2004 was 165.2/100,000 for men and 128.4/100,000 for women. These population-based findings suggest that AGWs are a substantial burden to Manitobans and that their pattern has changed over time, with incidence and prevalence becoming higher in men than women. Monitoring the future trends in AGWs will provide an early marker of the effectiveness and duration of protection of human papillomavirus vaccination at a population level.

Temporal trends in cardiovascular disease risk factors among white, South Asian, Chinese and black groups in Ontario, Canada, 2001 to 2012: a population-based study.

PubMed

Chiu, Maria; Maclagan, Laura C; Tu, Jack V; Shah, Baiju R

2015-08-10

To determine ethnic-specific temporal trends in cardiovascular risk factors in Ontario between 2001 and 2012. A population-based repeated cross-sectional study. Ontario, Canada. 219,276 participants of the Canadian Community Health Survey (205,326 white, 5620 South Asian, 4368 Chinese and 3962 black) during the period 2001 to 2012. Age-standardised ethnic-sex-specific prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors for three time periods: 2001-2004, 2005-2008 and 2009-2012 among Canada's four major ethnic groups: white, South Asian, Chinese and black. During the study period, the prevalence of diabetes increased 2.3-fold (p = 0.0001) among South Asian males and 1.9-fold (p = 0.02) among black females. The prevalence of obesity (body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m(2)) increased over time across all ethnic groups, with the largest relative increases observed among males of Chinese (2.1-fold increase, p = 0.04) and black (1.7-fold increase, p = 0.06) descent. The prevalence of hypertension increased the most among black females. Smoking prevalence decreased by more than 20% among South Asian, Chinese and white females. Overall, South Asian males and black males and females showed the greatest declines in cardiovascular health over the study period. We observed important ethnic differences in the temporal trends in cardiovascular risk factor profiles in Ontario. Awareness of the direction and magnitude of these risk factor trends may be useful in informing targeted strategies for preventing cardiovascular diseases in multiethnic populations. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Trends in cancer incidence in female breast, cervix uteri, corpus uteri, and ovary in India.

PubMed

Yeole, Balkrishna B

2008-01-01

Trends in breast, cervix uteri, corpus uteri and ovarian cancers in six population based cancer registries (Mumbai, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi, Bhopal, and Barshi) were evaluated over a period of the last two decades. For studying trends we used a model that fits this data is the logarithm of Y=ABx which represents a Linear Regression model. This approach showed a decreasing trend for cancer of the cervix and increasing trends for cancers of breast, ovary and corpus uteri throughout the entire period of observation in most of the registries. The four cancers, breast, cervix, corpus uteri and ovary, constitute more than 50% of total cancers in women. As all these cancers are increasing, to understand their etiology in depth, analytic epidemiology studies should be planned in a near future on a priority basis.

Estimating time-based instantaneous total mortality rate based on the age-structured abundance index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yingbin; Jiao, Yan

2015-05-01

The instantaneous total mortality rate ( Z) of a fish population is one of the important parameters in fisheries stock assessment. The estimation of Z is crucial to fish population dynamics analysis, abundance and catch forecast, and fisheries management. A catch curve-based method for estimating time-based Z and its change trend from catch per unit effort (CPUE) data of multiple cohorts is developed. Unlike the traditional catch-curve method, the method developed here does not need the assumption of constant Z throughout the time, but the Z values in n continuous years are assumed constant, and then the Z values in different n continuous years are estimated using the age-based CPUE data within these years. The results of the simulation analyses show that the trends of the estimated time-based Z are consistent with the trends of the true Z, and the estimated rates of change from this approach are close to the true change rates (the relative differences between the change rates of the estimated Z and the true Z are smaller than 10%). Variations of both Z and recruitment can affect the estimates of Z value and the trend of Z. The most appropriate value of n can be different given the effects of different factors. Therefore, the appropriate value of n for different fisheries should be determined through a simulation analysis as we demonstrated in this study. Further analyses suggested that selectivity and age estimation are also two factors that can affect the estimated Z values if there is error in either of them, but the estimated change rates of Z are still close to the true change rates. We also applied this approach to the Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua) fishery of eastern Newfoundland and Labrador from 1983 to 1997, and obtained reasonable estimates of time-based Z.

77 FR 46683 - Proposed Information Collection; Comment Request; Current Population Survey (CPS) School...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-06

... Bureau plans to request clearance for updating the universe of collection of data concerning the school... based on current trends in school enrollment for people over 24. This change in universe will result in...

Bacterial meningitis in Finland, 1995–2014: a population-based observational study

PubMed Central

Polkowska, Aleksandra; Toropainen, Maija; Ollgren, Jukka; Lyytikäinen, Outi; Nuorti, J. Pekka

2017-01-01

Objectives Bacterial meningitis remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Its epidemiological characteristics, however, are changing due to new vaccines and secular trends. Conjugate vaccines against Haemophilus influenzae type b and Streptococcus pneumoniae (10-valent) were introduced in 1986 and 2010 in Finland. We assessed the disease burden and long-term trends of five common causes of bacterial meningitis in a population-based observational study. Methods A case was defined as isolation of S. pneumoniae, Neisseria meningitidis, Streptococcus agalactiae, Listeria monocytogenes or H. influenzae from cerebrospinal fluid and reported to national, population-based laboratory surveillance system during 1995–2014. We evaluated changes in incidence rates (Poisson or negative binomial regression), case fatality proportions (χ2) and age distribution of cases (Wilcoxon rank-sum). Results During 1995–2014, S. pneumoniae and N. meningitidis accounted for 78% of the total 1361 reported bacterial meningitis cases. H. influenzae accounted for 4% of cases (92% of isolates were non-type b). During the study period, the overall rate of bacterial meningitis per 1 00 000 person-years decreased from 1.88 cases in 1995 to 0.70 cases in 2014 (4% annual decline (95% CI 3% to 5%). This was primarily due to a 9% annual reduction in rates of N. meningitidis (95% CI 7% to 10%) and 2% decrease in S. pneumoniae (95% CI 1% to 4%). The median age of cases increased from 31 years in 1995–2004 to 43 years in 2005–2014 (p=0.0004). Overall case fatality proportion (10%) did not change from 2004 to 2009 to 2010–2014. Conclusions Substantial decreases in bacterial meningitis were associated with infant conjugate vaccination against pneumococcal meningitis and secular trend in meningococcal meningitis in the absence of vaccination programme. Ongoing epidemiological surveillance is needed to identify trends, evaluate serotype distribution, assess vaccine impact and develop future vaccination strategies. PMID:28592578

The trends in total energy, macronutrients and sodium intake among Japanese: findings from the 1995-2016 National Health and Nutrition Survey.

PubMed

Saito, Aki; Imai, Shino; Htun, Nay Chi; Okada, Emiko; Yoshita, Katsushi; Yoshiike, Nobuo; Takimoto, Hidemi

2018-06-04

Monitoring nutritional status of the population is essential in the development and evaluation of national or local health policies. In this study, we aimed to demonstrate analysis on the trends in dietary intake of energy and macronutrients, as well as Na, in Japanese population using the data of series of cross-sectional national surveys - the National Nutrition Survey (NNS) and the National Health Nutrition Survey (NHNS) - during the period from 1995 to 2016. The NNS and NHNS participants aged 20-79 years were included in the analysis. Dietary intake was estimated using 1-d household-based dietary record. The trend in total energy intake, energy intake from macronutrients (fat and protein), Na intake and energy-adjusted Na intake were analysed using regression models adjusted to 2010 age distribution and anthropometry status. A total of 94 270 men and 107 890 women were included the analysis. Total energy intake showed a decreasing trend in both men and women. Similarly, energy intake from protein decreased, but energy intake (%) from fat increased in both sexes. Energy-adjusted Na intake showed a decreasing trend in both men and women. This study identified the decrease in total energy intake and energy intake from protein, whereas there were inverse trends in energy intake from fat among Japanese adults. Continued monitoring of trends in dietary intake will be needed, and there should be efforts to increase the accuracy of current survey procedures.

Trends in suicidality among sexual minority and heterosexual students in a Canadian population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Peter, Tracey; Edkins, Tamara; Watson, Ryan; Adjei, Jones; Homma, Yuko; Saewyc, Elizabeth

2017-01-01

Objectives Despite evidence from numerous studies that document disparities in suicidality for sexual minorities, few have investigated whether or not these trends have improved over time, which is the objective of the current study. Methods Using school-based population data over a 15-year period (1998 to 2013), multivariate logistic regressions were used to calculate age-adjusted odds ratios separately by gender. Interactions were included to test widening or narrowing disparities within orientation groups, which makes this one of the first studies to test whether gaps in disparities between heterosexual and sexual minorities have widened or narrowed over time. Results Results show that sexual minority youth are persistently at a greater risk for suicidal behaviour, a trend that has continued particularly for bisexual youth of both sexes. Results also suggest that the gap in suicidal behaviour is widening among some female sexual orientation groups, yet narrowing for other male sexual orientation groups. Conclusions These findings have important public health implications, especially since we see decreases in suicidal behaviour for heterosexual adolescents, but not in the same way for many sexual minority youth, despite advances in social acceptance of gay, lesbian, and bisexual issues in North America. PMID:29326961

Current trends in treatment of hypertension in Karachi and cost minimization possibilities.

PubMed

Hussain, Izhar M; Naqvi, Baqir S; Qasim, Rao M; Ali, Nasir

2015-01-01

This study finds out drug usage trends in Stage I Hypertensive Patients without any compelling indications in Karachi, deviations of current practices from evidence based antihypertensive therapeutic guidelines and looks for cost minimization opportunities. In the present study conducted during June 2012 to August 2012, two sets were used. Randomized stratified independent surveys were conducted in doctors and general population - including patients, using pretested questionnaires. Sample sizes for doctors and general population were 100 and 400 respectively. Statistical analysis was conducted on Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS). Financial impact was also analyzed. On the basis of patients' doctors' feedback, Beta Blockers, and Angiotensin Converting Enzyme Inhibitors were used more frequently than other drugs. Thiazides and low-priced generics were hardly prescribed. Beta blockers were prescribed widely and considered cost effective. This trend increases cost by two to ten times. Feedbacks showed that therapeutic guidelines were not followed by the doctors practicing in the community and hospitals in Karachi. Thiazide diuretics were hardly used. Beta blockers were widely prescribed. High priced market leaders or expensive branded generics were commonly prescribed. Therefore, there are great opportunities for cost minimization by using evidence-based clinically effective and safe medicines.

HIV Research with Men who Have Sex with Men (MSM): Advantages and Challenges of Different Methods for Most Appropriately Targeting a Key Population.

PubMed

Gama, Ana; Martins, Maria O; Dias, Sónia

2017-01-01

The difficulty in accessing hard-to-reach populations as men who have sex with men presents a dilemma for HIV surveillance as their omission from surveillance systems leaves significant gaps in our understanding of HIV/AIDS epidemics. Several methods for recruiting difficult-to-access populations and collecting data on trends of HIV prevalence and behavioural factors for surveillance and research purposes have emerged. This paper aims to critically review different sampling approaches, from chain-referral and venue-based to respondent-driven, time-location and internet sampling methods, focusing on its main advantages and challenges for conducting HIV research among key populations, such as men who have sex with men. The benefits of using these approaches to recruit participants must be weighed against privacy concerns inherent in any social situation or health condition. Nevertheless, the methods discussed in this paper represent some of the best efforts to effectively reach most-at-risk subgroups of men who have sex with men, contributing to obtain unbiased trends of HIV prevalence and HIV-related risk behaviours among this population group.

American Exceptionalism: Population Trends and Flight Initiation Distances in Birds from Three Continents

PubMed Central

Møller, Anders Pape; Samia, Diogo S. M.; Weston, Mike A.; Guay, Patrick-Jean; Blumstein, Daniel T.

2014-01-01

Background All organisms may be affected by humans' increasing impact on Earth, but there are many potential drivers of population trends and the relative importance of each remains largely unknown. The causes of spatial patterns in population trends and their relationship with animal responses to human proximity are even less known. Methodology/Principal Finding We investigated the relationship between population trends of 193 species of bird in North America, Australia and Europe and flight initiation distance (FID); the distance at which birds take flight when approached by a human. While there is an expected negative relationship between population trend and FID in Australia and Europe, we found the inverse relationship for North American birds; thus FID cannot be used as a universal predictor of vulnerability of birds. However, the analysis of the joint explanatory ability of multiple drivers (farmland breeding habitat, pole-most breeding latitude, migratory habit, FID) effects on population status replicated previously reported strong effects of farmland breeding habitat (an effect apparently driven mostly by European birds), as well as strong effects of FID, body size, migratory habit and continent. Farmland birds are generally declining. Conclusions/Significance Flight initiation distance is related to population trends in a way that differs among continents opening new research possibilities concerning the causes of geographic differences in patterns of anti-predator behavior. PMID:25226165

U.S. Population Mobility and Distribution--Charts on Recent Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

[Beale, Calvin L.

A total of 19 charts, each with a brief narrative interpretation, present information on major features of population trends in the United States. Residents of 212 metropolitan areas (central cities with population of 50,000 or more) equalled 64 percent of the population of the U.S. in 1968. The distribution of the population differed greatly by…

Analysis options for estimating status and trends in long-term monitoring

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bart, Jonathan; Beyer, Hawthorne L.

2012-01-01

This chapter describes methods for estimating long-term trends in ecological parameters. Other chapters in this volume discuss more advanced methods for analyzing monitoring data, but these methods may be relatively inaccessible to some readers. Therefore, this chapter provides an introduction to trend analysis for managers and biologists while also discussing general issues relevant to trend assessment in any long-term monitoring program. For simplicity, we focus on temporal trends in population size across years. We refer to the survey results for each year as the “annual means” (e.g. mean per transect, per plot, per time period). The methods apply with little or no modification, however, to formal estimates of population size, other temporal units (e.g. a month), to spatial or other dimensions such as elevation or a north–south gradient, and to other quantities such as chemical or geological parameters. The chapter primarily discusses methods for estimating population-wide parameters rather than studying variation in trend within the population, which can be examined using methods presented in other chapters (e.g. Chapters 7, 12, 20). We begin by reviewing key concepts related to trend analysis. We then describe how to evaluate potential bias in trend estimates. An overview of the statistical models used to quantify trends is then presented. We conclude by showing ways to estimate trends using simple methods that can be implemented with spreadsheets.

Colorectal cancer screening in high-risk groups is increasing, although current smokers fall behind.

PubMed

Oluyemi, Aminat O; Welch, Amy R; Yoo, Lisa J; Lehman, Erik B; McGarrity, Thomas J; Chuang, Cynthia H

2014-07-15

There is limited information about colorectal cancer (CRC) screening trends in high-risk groups, including the black, obese, diabetic, and smoking populations. For this study, the authors evaluated national CRC screening trends in these high-risk groups to provide insights into whether screening resources are being appropriately used. This was a nationally representative, population-based study using the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System from the Centers for Disease Control. Data analysis was performed using bivariate analyses with weighted logistic regression. In the general population, CRC screening increased significantly from 59% to 65% during the years 2006 to 2010. The screening prevalence in non-Hispanic blacks was 58% in 2006 and 65% in 2010. Among obese individuals, the prevalence of up-to-date CRC screening increased significantly from 59% in 2006 to 66% in 2010. Screening prevalence in individuals with diabetes was 63% in 2006 and 69% in 2010. The CRC screening prevalence in current smokers was 45% in 2006 and 50% in 2010. The odds of CRC screening in the non-Hispanic black population, the obese population, and the diabetic population were higher than in non-Hispanic whites, normal weight individuals, and the population without diabetes, respectively. Current smokers had significantly lower odds of CRC screening than never-smokers in the years studied (2006: odds ratio [OR], 0.71; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66-0.76; 2008: OR, 0.67; 95% CI, 0.63-0.71; 2010: OR, 0.69; 95% CI, 0.66-0.73). The prevalence of CRC screening in high-risk groups is trending upward. Despite this, current smokers have significantly lower odds of CRC screening compared with the general population. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

Palila abundance estimates and trend

USGS Publications Warehouse

Camp, Richad; Banko, Paul C.

2012-01-01

The Palila (Loxioides bailleui) is an endangered, seed-eating, finch-billed honeycreeper found only on Hawai`i Island. Once occurring on the islands of Kaua`i and O`ahu and Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes of Hawai`i, Palila are now found only in subalpine, dry-forest habitats on Mauna Kea (Banko et al. 2002). Previous analyses showed that Palila numbers fluctuated throughout the 1980s and 1990s but declined rapidly and steadily since 2003 (Jacobi et al. 1996, Leonard et al. 2008, Banko et al. 2009, Gorresen et al. 2009, Banko et al. in press). The aim of this report is to update abundance estimates for the Palila based on the 2012 surveys. We assess Palila trends over two periods: 1) the long-term trend during 1998–2012 and 2) the short-term trajectory between 2003 and 2012. The first period evaluates the population trend for the entire time series since additional transects were established (Johnson et al. 2006). These additional transects were established to produce a more precise population estimate and provide more complete coverage of the Palila range. The initial year for short-term trajectory was chosen subjectively to coincide with the recent decline in the Palila population. Additionally, stations in the core Palila habitat were surveyed on two occasions in 2012, thus allowing us to address the question of how repeat samples improve estimate precision.

REGIONAL TRENDS IN THE WORKING-AGE POPULATION MORTALITY RATE IN THE REPUBLIC OF SAKHA (YAKUTIA) IN 1990-2012.

PubMed

Ivanova, A A; Kakorina, E P; Timofeev, L F; Potapov, A F; Aprosimov, L A

2015-01-01

Regions of the Russian Federation differ in climatic-geographic, medical-demographic and social-economic situations. One of the regions with distinct peculiarities is the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). Ranking first by the territory (3,103.2 thousand sq x km), Yakutia is on the 81th place by the population density among regions of the Russian Federation (0.3 people per 1 km2).Yakutia is one of the most isolated and inaccessible regions of the world: 90% of the territory lacks all-the-year-round transportation. Regions of the republic, as well, differ significantly in the climatic conditions and the levels of social-economic development, which influences the population health indicators, including mortality. This survey aimed to study the trends of mortality in the working-age population in different groups of regions. To do this, basing on the statistical data, we compared the levels, trends and structure of mortality in 1990-2012. It was established that the different groups of regions show a significant variation in the working-age population mortality, depending on the social-economic conditions. Since 2000, the Arctic group of regions has demonstrated higher mortality in working-age men and women, especially of cardiovascular and digestive system diseases, and external causes. Lying beyond the Arctic Circle, these regions have severe conditions and a relatively low level of social-economic development. As for the rural regions, despite the relatively favourabe situation, they also show a high level of mortality of external causes. The industrial regions are characterized by higher social-economic development, better transport infrastructure, a satisfactory material base of medical institutions. They also have sufficient resources of health institutions, including the staff and modern equipment for treatment and diagnostics, as well as, which is critical, the full range of medical specialists. Thus, these regions demonstrate lower population mortality; however, there is still mortality of infectious diseases, neoplasms, and respiratory diseases.

Iowa Population Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tait, John L.; Johnson, Arthur H.

The trends in population distribution and the composition of Iowa's population are reported in this document in order to provide the leaders and citizens of Iowa with information to assist them in making decisions relating to growth and development. Birth and death rates, rural and urban residence, population by race, and age structure are…

Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

PubMed

Simarro, Pere P; Cecchi, Giuliano; Franco, José R; Paone, Massimo; Diarra, Abdoulaye; Ruiz-Postigo, José Antonio; Fèvre, Eric M; Mattioli, Raffaele C; Jannin, Jean G

2012-01-01

Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population. Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2) are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported. Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

Population Trends and Prospects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mauldin, W. Parker

1980-01-01

Future trends in population are described as they relate to developed and developing nations. It is suggested that for the next 20 years there will be a decrease in population growth rates for all areas of the world except Africa. (Author/SA)

Growth in Western Australian emergency department demand during 2007-2013 is due to people with urgent and complex care needs.

PubMed

Aboagye-Sarfo, Patrick; Mai, Qun; Sanfilippo, Frank M; Preen, David B; Stewart, Louise M; Fatovich, Daniel M

2015-06-01

To determine the magnitude and characteristics of the increase in ED demand in Western Australia (WA) from 2007 to 2013. We conducted a population-based longitudinal study examining trends in ED demand, stratified by area of residence, age group, sex, Australasian Triage Scale category and discharge disposition. The outcome measures were annual number and rate of ED presentations. We calculated average annual growth, and age-specific and age-standardised rates. We assessed the statistical significance of trends, overall and within each category, using the Mann-Kendall trend test and analysis of variance ANOVA. We also calculated the proportions of growth in ED demand that were attributable to changes in population and utilisation rate. From 2007 to 2013, ED presentations increased by an average 4.6% annually from 739,742 to 945,244. The rate increased 1.4% from 354.1 to 382.6 per 1000 WA population (P = 0.02 for the trend). The main increase occurred in metropolitan WA, age 45+ years, triage category 2 and 3 and admitted cohorts. Approximately three-quarters of this increase was due to population change (growth and ageing) and one-quarter due to increase in utilisation. Our study reveals a 4.6% annual increase in ED demand in WA in 2007-2013, mostly because of an increase in people with urgent and complex care needs, and not a shift (demand transfer) from primary care. This indicates that a system-wide integrated approach is required for demand management. © 2015 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

AIDS in adults 50 years of age and over: characteristics, trends and spatial distribution of the risk.

PubMed

Nogueira, Jordana de Almeida; Silva, Antônia Oliveira; Sá, Laísa Ribeiro de; Almeida, Sandra Aparecida de; Monroe, Aline Aparecida; Villa, Tereza Cristina Scatena

2014-01-01

to analyze the sociodemographic characteristics, epidemic trend and spatial distribution of the risk of AIDS in adults 50 years of age and over. population-based, ecological study, that used secondary data from the Notifiable Disease Information System (Sinan/AIDS) of Paraíba state from the period January 2000 to December 2010. during the study period, 307 cases of AIDS were reported among people 50 years of age or over. There was a predominance of males (205/66, 8%), mixed race, and low education levels. The municipalities with populations above 100 thousand inhabitants reported 58.5% of the cases. There was a progressive increase in cases among women; an increasing trend in the incidence (positive linear correlation); and an advance in the geographical spread of the disease, with expansion to the coastal region and to the interior of the state, reaching municipalities with populations below 30 thousand inhabitants. In some locations the risk of disease was 100 times greater than the relative risk for the state. aging, with the feminization and interiorization of the epidemic in adults 50 years of age and over, confirms the need for the induction of affirmative policies targeted toward this age group.

[Cancer mortality trends in Mexico, 1980-2011].

PubMed

Torres-Sánchez, Luisa E; Rojas-Martínez, Rosalba; Escamilla-Núñez, Consuelo; de la Vara-Salazar, Elvia; Lazcano-Ponce, Eduardo

2014-01-01

To evaluate trends in cancer mortality in Mexico between 1980-2011. Through direct method and using World Population 2010 as standard population, mortality rates for all cancers and the 15 most frequent locations, adjusted for age and sex were calculated. Trends in mortality rates and annual percentage change for each type of cancer were estimated by joinpoint regression model. As a result of the reduction in mortality from lung cancer (-3.2% -1.8% in men and in women), stomach (-2.1% -2.4% in men and in women) and cervix (-4.7%); since 2004 a significant (~1% per year) decline was observed in cancer mortality in general, in all ages, and in the group of 35-64 years of both sexes. Other cancers such as breast and ovarian cancer in women; as well as for prostate cancer in men, showed a steady increase. Some of the reductions in cancer mortality may be partially attributed to the effectiveness of prevention programs. However, adequate records of population-based cancer are needed to assess the real impact of these programs; as well as designing and evaluating innovative interventions to develop more cost-effective prevention policies.

Demographic monitoring of wild muriqui populations: Criteria for defining priority areas and monitoring intensity.

PubMed

Strier, Karen B; Possamai, Carla B; Tabacow, Fernanda P; Pissinatti, Alcides; Lanna, Andre M; Rodrigues de Melo, Fabiano; Moreira, Leandro; Talebi, Maurício; Breves, Paula; Mendes, Sérgio L; Jerusalinsky, Leandro

2017-01-01

Demographic data are essential to assessments of the status of endangered species. However, establishing an integrated monitoring program to obtain useful data on contemporary and future population trends requires both the identification of priority areas and populations and realistic evaluations of the kinds of data that can be obtained under different monitoring regimes. We analyzed all known populations of a critically endangered primate, the muriqui (genus: Brachyteles) using population size, genetic uniqueness, geographic importance (including potential importance in corridor programs) and implementability scores to define monitoring priorities. Our analyses revealed nine priority populations for the northern muriqui (B. hypoxanthus) and nine for the southern muriqui (B. arachnoides). In addition, we employed knowledge of muriqui developmental and life history characteristics to define the minimum monitoring intensity needed to evaluate demographic trends along a continuum ranging from simple descriptive changes in population size to predictions of population changes derived from individual based life histories. Our study, stimulated by the Brazilian government's National Action Plan for the Conservation of Muriquis, is fundamental to meeting the conservation goals for this genus, and also provides a model for defining priorities and methods for the implementation of integrated demographic monitoring programs for other endangered and critically endangered species of primates.

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth

PubMed Central

Abel, Guy J.; Barakat, Bilal; KC, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2016-01-01

Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth. PMID:27911797

Meeting the Sustainable Development Goals leads to lower world population growth.

PubMed

Abel, Guy J; Barakat, Bilal; Kc, Samir; Lutz, Wolfgang

2016-12-13

Here we show the extent to which the expected world population growth could be lowered by successfully implementing the recently agreed-upon Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs include specific quantitative targets on mortality, reproductive health, and education for all girls by 2030, measures that will directly and indirectly affect future demographic trends. Based on a multidimensional model of population dynamics that stratifies national populations by age, sex, and level of education with educational fertility and mortality differentials, we translate these goals into SDG population scenarios, resulting in population sizes between 8.2 and 8.7 billion in 2100. Because these results lie outside the 95% prediction range given by the 2015 United Nations probabilistic population projections, we complement the study with sensitivity analyses of these projections that suggest that those prediction intervals are too narrow because of uncertainty in baseline data, conservative assumptions on correlations, and the possibility of new policies influencing these trends. Although the analysis presented here rests on several assumptions about the implementation of the SDGs and the persistence of educational, fertility, and mortality differentials, it quantitatively illustrates the view that demography is not destiny and that policies can make a decisive difference. In particular, advances in female education and reproductive health can contribute greatly to reducing world population growth.

Hierarchical models and Bayesian analysis of bird survey information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.; Royle, J. Andrew; Ralph, C. John; Rich, Terrell D.

2005-01-01

Summary of bird survey information is a critical component of conservation activities, but often our summaries rely on statistical methods that do not accommodate the limitations of the information. Prioritization of species requires ranking and analysis of species by magnitude of population trend, but often magnitude of trend is a misleading measure of actual decline when trend is poorly estimated. Aggregation of population information among regions is also complicated by varying quality of estimates among regions. Hierarchical models provide a reasonable means of accommodating concerns about aggregation and ranking of quantities of varying precision. In these models the need to consider multiple scales is accommodated by placing distributional assumptions on collections of parameters. For collections of species trends, this allows probability statements to be made about the collections of species-specific parameters, rather than about the estimates. We define and illustrate hierarchical models for two commonly encountered situations in bird conservation: (1) Estimating attributes of collections of species estimates, including ranking of trends, estimating number of species with increasing populations, and assessing population stability with regard to predefined trend magnitudes; and (2) estimation of regional population change, aggregating information from bird surveys over strata. User-friendly computer software makes hierarchical models readily accessible to scientists.

Incidence of stroke in women in Auckland, New Zealand. Ethnic trends over two decades: 1981-2003.

PubMed

Dyall, Lorna; Carter, Kristie; Bonita, Ruth; Anderson, Craig; Feigin, Valery; Kerse, Ngaire; Brown, Paul

2006-11-17

Although women have a greater lifetime risk of stroke than men, along with other gender differences in stroke, there is lack of reliable data on long-term trends in stroke in women. This paper presents the results of three population-based registers in Auckland (1981-1982, 1991-1992, and 2002-2003) which aimed to determine the trends in the incidence of stroke in New Zealand. This paper reports on the burden of stroke in women across different ethnic groups over the study period from 1981 to 2003. Three studies using similar methodology and overlapping case finding methods have been conducted in New Zealand to estimate trends in the incidence and outcome of stroke. The studies are recognised as meeting the 'ideal' criteria for stroke incidence and identify all first-ever and recurrent strokes in residents (aged greater than and equal to 15 years) the population of Auckland, New Zealand in the 12-month periods from 1981-1982, 1991-1992, and 2002-2003. There were totals of 307,578 strokes among women in 1981, 372,642 in 1991, and 470,727 in 2001, according to each Census representing over 50% of the population at each period (51%-54%). The WHO standard world population was used for direct age standardisation of annual rates (per 100,000 population), reported with 95% confidence intervals (CI). The proportion of women who have experienced a stroke did not change markedly over the study period but there were ethnic differences emerging which were related to population changes within the New Zealand population. Standardised stroke incidence in women was relatively stable across the three study periods (1981-1982), 133 [95% CI 118-151]; (1991-1992), 143 [95% CI 116-241]; and (2002-2003), 124 [95% CI 115-134]). However, a significant decline of 14% (95% CI 2%-29%) in rates of first-ever stroke was found between 1991-1992 and 2002-2003 in women. In contrast to the significant declines in event rates in European women over two decades (Rate ratio 0.84, 95% CI 0.73-0.96), increasing trends in event rates in Pacific women were observed (2.71 95% CI 1.00-7.29). The rate of stroke for Maori women did not change significantly over time. Over half of the women who had a stroke event reported that they had high blood pressure; one in four reported that they had diabetes. The proportion of women who smoked declined over time but increases in body mass index (BMI) indicated weight gains in women over time. These trends were consistent across ethnic groups. Women's survival after 1 month following their stroke has improved by 39% (p<0.0001) over the 20-year period. Favourable changes in early survival were most pronounced in European women. There was a modest decline in stroke incidence in women (overall and for New Zealand European women in particular) in Auckland over the past 20 years but there also was a trend towards increasing stroke incidence in Maori, Pacific, and Asian women. These divergent trends are likely to be associated with different trends in the prevalence of risk factors in these ethnic populations. Targeted stroke prevention programmes are needed in New Zealand to meet the needs of specific ethnic groups as well as the needs of providing ongoing care and support to women following their stroke.

Recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women and all women in sub-Saharan Africa: implications for HIV estimates.

PubMed

Eaton, Jeffrey W; Rehle, Thomas M; Jooste, Sean; Nkambule, Rejoice; Kim, Andrea A; Mahy, Mary; Hallett, Timothy B

2014-11-01

National population-wide HIV prevalence and incidence trends in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are indirectly estimated using HIV prevalence measured among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANC), among other data. We evaluated whether recent HIV prevalence trends among pregnant women are representative of general population trends. Serial population-based household surveys in 13 SSA countries. We calculated HIV prevalence trends among all women aged 15-49 years and currently pregnant women between surveys conducted from 2003 to 2008 (period 1) and 2009 to 2012 (period 2). Log-binomial regression was used to test for a difference in prevalence trend between the two groups. Prevalence among pregnant women was age-standardized to represent the age distribution of all women. Pooling data for all countries, HIV prevalence declined among pregnant women from 6.5 [95% confidence interval (CI) 5.3-7.9%] to 5.3% (95% CI 4.2-6.6%) between periods 1 and 2, whereas it remained unchanged among all women at 8.4% (95% CI 8.0-8.9%) in period 1 and 8.3% (95% CI 7.9-8.8%) in period 2. Prevalence declined by 18% (95% CI -9-38%) more in pregnant women than nonpregnant women. Estimates were similar in Western, Eastern, and Southern regions of SSA; none were statistically significant (P>0.05). HIV prevalence decreased significantly among women aged 15-24 years while increasing significantly among women 35-49 years, who represented 29% of women but only 15% of pregnant women. Age-standardization of prevalence in pregnant women did not reconcile the discrepant trends because at older ages prevalence was lower among pregnant women than nonpregnant women. As HIV prevalence in SSA has shifted toward older, less-fertile women, HIV prevalence among pregnant women has declined more rapidly than prevalence in women overall. Interpretation of ANC prevalence data to inform national HIV estimates should account for both age-specific fertility patterns and HIV-related sub-fertility.

Considerations for monitoring raptor population trends based on counts of migrants

USGS Publications Warehouse

Titus, K.; Fuller, M.R.; Ruos, J.L.; Meyburg, B-U.; Chancellor, R.D.

1989-01-01

Various problems were identified with standardized hawk count data as annually collected at six sites. Some of the hawk lookouts increased their hours of observation from 1979-1985, thereby confounding the total counts. Data recording and missing data hamper coding of data and their use with modern analytical techniques. Coefficients of variation among years in counts averaged about 40%. The advantages and disadvantages of various analytical techniques are discussed including regression, non-parametric rank correlation trend analysis, and moving averages.

Ten Year Trends in Community HIV Viral Load in Barbados: Implications for Treatment as Prevention

PubMed Central

Landis, R. Clive; Branch-Beckles, Songee Lynn; Crichlow, Shawna; Hambleton, Ian R.; Best, Anton

2013-01-01

Background Treatment as prevention is a paradigm in HIV medicine which describes the public health benefit of antiretroviral therapy (ART). It is based on research showing substantial reductions in the risk of HIV transmission in persons with optimally suppressed HIV-1 Viral Loads (VL). The present study describes ten year VL trends at the national HIV treatment unit and estimates VL suppression at a population level in Barbados, a Caribbean island with a population of 277,000, an estimated adult HIV prevalence of 1.2%, and served by a single treatment unit. Methods The national HIV treatment centre of the Barbados Ministry of Health has a client VL database extending back to inception of the clinic in 2002 (n = 1,462 clients, n = 17,067 VL measurements). Optimal VL suppression was defined at a threshold value of ≤200 viral copies/mL. Results Analysis of VL trends showed a statistically significant improvement in VL suppression between 2002 to 2011, from 33.6% of clients achieving the 200 copies/mL threshold in 2002 to 70.3% in 2011 (P<0.001). Taking into account the proportion of clients alive and in care and on ART, the known diagnosed HIV population in Barbados, and estimates of unknown HIV infections, this translates into an estimated 26.2% VL suppression at a population level at the end of 2010. Conclusions We have demonstrated a significant trend towards optimal VL suppression in clients utilizing the services of the national HIV treatment program in Barbados over a 10-year period. Estimates of VL suppression at a population level are similar to reports in developed countries that applied similar methodologies and this could suggest a public health benefit of ART in minimizing the risk of sexual transmission of HIV. Continued efforts are warranted to extend HIV testing to hidden populations in Barbados and linking infected persons to care earlier in their disease. PMID:23520523

Demography of Immigrant Youth: Past, Present, and Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Passel, Jeffrey S.

2011-01-01

Jeffrey Passel surveys demographic trends and projections in the U.S. youth population, with an emphasis on trends among immigrant youth. He traces shifts in the youth population over the past hundred years, examines population projections through 2050, and offers some observations about the likely impact of the immigrant youth population on…

Recent trends in dental visits and private dental insurance, 1989 and 1999.

PubMed

Wall, Thomas P; Brown, L Jackson

2003-05-01

This article describes recent trends in dental visits and private dental insurance in the United States. This study is based on the analyses of data regarding dental visits and private dental insurance among the population 2 years of age or older from the 1989 and 1999 National Health Interview Surveys. Overall, the percentage of the population with a dental visit rose from 57.2 percent in 1989 to 64.1 percent in 1999, while the percentage with private dental insurance fell from 40.5 percent to 35.2 percent. Although a higher percentage of people with private dental insurance reported having a dental visit than did those without private dental insurance in both years, the increase from 1989 to 1999 in the percentage of those with a visit was larger among the uninsured. If this trend persists, a smaller portion of practicing dentist's clientele will be insured. This may affect demand for services, as well as front office operations.

Impact of trends in resources, environment and development on demographic prospects.

PubMed

Keyfitz, N

1984-01-01

This paper addresses the impact of trends in resources, environment and development on demographic prospects by investigating whether ecological considerations can improve the accuracy of population projections. It identifies the degree to which population is resources-determined. The basic classic relationship that resources determine population is increasingly inapplicable as the level of technology rises and institutions are formed. The major defect in attmepts to relate population directly to land and energy flow is that they suppose all other factors remain constant. If, however, the increase of population on the fixed land itself pushes technology, and that in turn makes it possible for a larger population to live on the same land, the attempt to express population as a pure function of land is entirely frustrated. Given a challenge that is severe but not overwhelming, a natural environment that is difficult but not impossible, plus a culture that builds responsiveness into its children in each generation, the inert adjustment of population numbers to food supplies seems to give way to the active adjustment of food supplies to population. Those who need the most because of their poverty are the ones who advance the least. Government is another intermediate agent between the environment that would limit population and the population itself. It acts as an agent of adaptation of population to land. The emergence of the world grain market, which has detached individuals from dependence on their local ecological base, has lifted the resource constraint. A method to improve the accuracy of population projections is proposed, based on projecting the condition of resources and the environment, followed by the intermediate variables of technology and institutions for a given future time. Population projection for each year to that date would be done by interpolation, rather than by extrapolation. Birth control, the effect of urbanization and the impact of development on population are examined.

Birth Outcomes among Older Mothers in Rural versus Urban Areas: A Residence-Based Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lisonkova, Sarka; Sheps, Samuel B.; Janssen, Patricia A.; Lee, Shoo K.; Dahlgren, Leanne; MacNab, Ying C.

2011-01-01

Purpose: We examined the association between rural residence and birth outcomes in older mothers, the effect of parity on this association, and the trend in adverse birth outcomes in relation to the distance to the nearest hospital with cesarean-section capacity. Methods: A population-based retrospective cohort study, including all singleton…

Population-based case-control study of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in western Washington State. II. Diet.

PubMed

Nelson, L M; Matkin, C; Longstreth, W T; McGuire, V

2000-01-15

The association of nutrient intake with the risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) was investigated in a population-based case-control study conducted in three counties of western Washington State from 1990 to 1994. Incident ALS cases (n = 161) were identified and individually matched on age and gender to population controls (n = 321). A self-administered food frequency questionnaire was used to assess nutrient intake. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to compute odds ratios adjusted for education, smoking, and total energy intake. The authors found that dietary fat intake was associated with an increased risk of ALS (highest vs. lowest quartile, fiber-adjusted odds ratio (OR) = 2.7, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.9, 8.0; p for trend = 0.06), while dietary fiber intake was associated with a decreased risk of ALS (highest vs. lowest quartile, fat-adjusted OR = 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1, 0.7; p for trend = 0.02). Glutamate intake was associated with an increased risk of ALS (adjusted OR for highest vs. lowest quartile = 3.2, 95% CI: 1.2, 8.0; p for trend < 0.02). Consumption of antioxidant vitamins from diet or supplement sources did not alter the risk. The positive association with glutamate intake is consistent with the etiologic theory that implicates glutamate excitotoxicity in the pathogenesis of ALS, whereas the associations with fat and fiber intake warrant further study and biologic explanation.

Spatial and temporal trends in the mortality burden of air pollution in China: 2004–2012

PubMed Central

Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Ma, Zongwei; Jin, Zhou; Liu, Xingyu; Wang, Haikun; Liu, Yang; Wang, Jinnan; Jantunen, Matti; BiDr, Jun; KinneyDr, Patrick L.

2017-01-01

While recent assessments have quantified the burden of air pollution at the national scale in China, air quality managers would benefit from assessments that disaggregate health impacts over regions and over time. We took advantage of a new 10 × 10 km satellite-based PM2.5 dataset to analyze spatial and temporal trends of air pollution health impacts in China, from 2004 to 2012. Results showed that national PM2.5 related deaths from stroke, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer increased from approximately 800,000 cases in 2004 to over 1.2 million cases in 2012. The health burden exhibited strong spatial variations, with high attributable deaths concentrated in regions including the Beijing–Tianjin Metropolitan Region, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Sichuan Basin, Shandong, Wuhan Metropolitan Region, Changsha–Zhuzhou–Xiangtan, Henan, and Anhui, which have heavy air pollution, high population density, or both. Increasing trends were found in most provinces, but with varied growth rates. While there was some evidence for improving air quality in recent years, this was offset somewhat by the countervailing influences of in–migration together with population growth. We recommend that priority areas for future national air pollution control policies be adjusted to better reflect the spatial hotspots of health burdens. Satellite-based exposure and health impact assessments can be a useful tool for tracking progress on both air quality and population health burden reductions. PMID:27745948

Spatial and temporal trends in the mortality burden of air pollution in China: 2004-2012.

PubMed

Liu, Miaomiao; Huang, Yining; Ma, Zongwei; Jin, Zhou; Liu, Xingyu; Wang, Haikun; Liu, Yang; Wang, Jinnan; Jantunen, Matti; Bi, Jun; Kinney, Patrick L

2017-01-01

While recent assessments have quantified the burden of air pollution at the national scale in China, air quality managers would benefit from assessments that disaggregate health impacts over regions and over time. We took advantage of a new 10×10km satellite-based PM 2.5 dataset to analyze spatial and temporal trends of air pollution health impacts in China, from 2004 to 2012. Results showed that national PM 2.5 related deaths from stroke, ischemic heart disease and lung cancer increased from approximately 800,000 cases in 2004 to over 1.2 million cases in 2012. The health burden exhibited strong spatial variations, with high attributable deaths concentrated in regions including the Beijing-Tianjin Metropolitan Region, Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Sichuan Basin, Shandong, Wuhan Metropolitan Region, Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan, Henan, and Anhui, which have heavy air pollution, high population density, or both. Increasing trends were found in most provinces, but with varied growth rates. While there was some evidence for improving air quality in recent years, this was offset somewhat by the countervailing influences of in-migration together with population growth. We recommend that priority areas for future national air pollution control policies be adjusted to better reflect the spatial hotspots of health burdens. Satellite-based exposure and health impact assessments can be a useful tool for tracking progress on both air quality and population health burden reductions. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Monitoring trends in bat populations of the United States and territories: Problems and prospects

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Shea, T.J.; Bogan, M. A.

2003-01-01

Bats are ecologically and economically important mammals. The life histories of bats (particularly their low reproductive rates and the need for some species to gather in large aggregations at limited numbers of roosting sites) make their populations vulnerable to declines. Many of the species of bats in the United States (U.S.) and territories are categorized as endangered or threatened, have been candidates for such categories, or are considered species of concern. The importance and vulnerability of bat populations makes monitoring trends in their populations a goal for their future management. However, scientifically rigorous monitoring of bat populations requires well-planned, statistically defensible efforts. This volume reports findings of an expert workshop held to examine the topic of monitoring populations of bats. The workshop participants included leading experts in sampling and analysis of wildlife populations, as well as experts in the biology and conservation of bats. Findings are reported in this volume under two sections. Part I of the report presents contributed papers that provide overviews of past and current efforts at monitoring trends in populations of bats in the U.S. and territories. These papers consider current techniques and problems, and summarize what is known about the status and trends in populations of selected groups of bats. The contributed papers in Part I also include a description of the monitoring program developed for bat populations in the United Kingdom, a critique of monitoring programs in wildlife in general with recommendations for survey and sampling strategies, and a compilation and analysis of existing data on trends in bats of the U.S. and territories. Efforts directed at monitoring bat populations are piecemeal and have shortcomings. In Part II of the report, the workshop participants provide critical analyses of these problems and develop recommendations for improving methods, defining objectives and priorities, gaining mandates, and enhancing information exchange to facilitate future efforts for monitoring trends in U.S. bat populations.

Obesity trend in the United States and economic intervention options to change it: A simulation study linking ecological epidemiology and system dynamics modeling.

PubMed

Chen, H-J; Xue, H; Liu, S; Huang, T T K; Wang, Y C; Wang, Y

2018-05-29

To study the country-level dynamics and influences between population weight status and socio-economic distribution (employment status and family income) in the US and to project the potential impacts of socio-economic-based intervention options on obesity prevalence. Ecological study and simulation. Using the longitudinal data from the 2001-2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (N = 88,453 adults), we built and calibrated a system dynamics model (SDM) capturing the feedback loops between body weight status and socio-economic status distribution and simulated the effects of employment- and income-based intervention options. The SDM-based simulation projected rising overweight/obesity prevalence in the US in the future. Improving people's income from lower to middle-income group would help control the rising prevalence, while only creating jobs for the unemployed did not show such effect. Improving people from low- to middle-income levels may be effective, instead of solely improving reemployment rate, in curbing the rising obesity trend in the US adult population. This study indicates the value of the SDM as a virtual laboratory to evaluate complex distributive phenomena of the interplay between population health and economy. Copyright © 2018 The Royal Society for Public Health. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Does geography influence the treatment and outcomes of colorectal cancer? A population-based analysis.

PubMed

Helewa, Ramzi M; Turner, Donna; Wirtzfeld, Debrah; Park, Jason; Hochman, David; Czaykowski, Piotr; Singh, Harminder; Shu, Emma; Xue, Lin; McKay, Andrew

2013-06-17

The Canadian province of Manitoba covers a large geographical area but only has one major urban center, Winnipeg. We sought to determine if regional differences existed in the quality of colorectal cancer care in a publicly funded health care system. This was a population-based historical cohort analysis of the treatment and outcomes of Manitobans diagnosed with colorectal cancer between 2004 and 2006. Administrative databases were utilized to assess quality of care using published quality indicators. A total of 2,086 patients were diagnosed with stage I to IV colorectal cancer and 42.2% lived outside of Winnipeg. Patients from North Manitoba had a lower odds of undergoing major surgery after controlling for other confounders (odds ratio (OR): 0.48, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.26 to 0.90). No geographic differences existed in the quality measures of 30-day operative mortality, consultations with oncologists, surveillance colonoscopy, and 5-year survival. However, there was a trend towards lower survival in North Manitoba. We found minimal differences by geography. However, overall compliance with quality measures is low and there are concerning trends in North Manitoba. This study is one of the few to evaluate population-based benchmarks for colorectal cancer therapy in Canada.

Population trends, survival, and sampling methodologies for a population of Rana draytonii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fellers, Gary M.; Kleeman, Patrick M.; Miller, David A.W.; Halstead, Brian J.

2017-01-01

Estimating population trends provides valuable information for resource managers, but monitoring programs face trade-offs between the quality and quantity of information gained and the number of sites surveyed. We compared the effectiveness of monitoring techniques for estimating population trends of Rana draytonii (California Red-legged Frog) at Point Reyes National Seashore, California, USA, over a 13-yr period. Our primary goals were to: 1) estimate trends for a focal pond at Point Reyes National Seashore, and 2) evaluate whether egg mass counts could reliably estimate an index of abundance relative to more-intensive capture–mark–recapture methods. Capture–mark–recapture (CMR) surveys of males indicated a stable population from 2005 to 2009, despite low annual apparent survival (26.3%). Egg mass counts from 2000 to 2012 indicated that despite some large fluctuations, the breeding female population was generally stable or increasing, with annual abundance varying between 26 and 130 individuals. Minor modifications to egg mass counts, such as marking egg masses, can allow estimation of egg mass detection probabilities necessary to convert counts to abundance estimates, even when closure of egg mass abundance cannot be assumed within a breeding season. High egg mass detection probabilities (mean per-survey detection probability = 0.98 [0.89–0.99]) indicate that egg mass surveys can be an efficient and reliable method for monitoring population trends of federally threatened R. draytonii. Combining egg mass surveys to estimate trends at many sites with CMR methods to evaluate factors affecting adult survival at focal populations is likely a profitable path forward to enhance understanding and conservation of R. draytonii.

The Climate-Population Nexus in the East African Horn: Emerging Degradation Trends in Rangeland and Pastoral Livelihood Zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pricope, N. G.; Husak, G. J.; Funk, C. C.; Lopez-Carr, D.

2014-12-01

Increasing climate variability and extreme weather conditions along with declining trends in both rainfall and temperature represent major risk factors affecting agricultural production and food security in many regions of the world. We identify regions where significant rainfall decrease from 1979-2011 over the entire continent of Africa couples with significant human population density increase. The rangelands of Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia in the East African Horn remain one of the world's most food insecure regions, yet have significantly increasing human populations predominantly dependent on pastoralist and agro-pastoralist livelihoods. Vegetation in this region is characterized by a variable mosaic of land covers, generally dominated by grasslands necessary for agro-pastoralism, interspersed by woody vegetation. Recent assessments indicate that widespread degradation is occurring, adversely impacting fragile ecosystems and human livelihoods. Using two underutilized MODIS products, we observe significant changes in vegetation patterns and productivity over the last decade all across the East African Horn. We observe significant vegetation browning trends in areas experiencing drying precipitation trends in addition to increasing population pressures. We also found that the drying precipitation trends only partially statistically explain the vegetation browning trends, further indicating that other factors such as population pressures and land use changes are responsible for the observed declining vegetation health. Furthermore, we show that the general vegetation browning trends persist even during years with normal rainfall conditions such as 2012, indicating potential long-term degradation of rangelands on which approximately 10 million people depend. These findings have serious implications for current and future regional food security monitoring and forecasting as well as for mitigation and adaptation strategies in a region where population is expected to continue increasing against a backdrop of drying climate trends.

Recent Trends in Survival of Patients With Pancreatic Cancer in Germany and the United States.

PubMed

Sirri, Eunice; Castro, Felipe Andres; Kieschke, Joachim; Jansen, Lina; Emrich, Katharina; Gondos, Adam; Holleczek, Bernd; Katalinic, Alexander; Urbschat, Iris; Vohmann, Claudia; Brenner, Hermann

2016-07-01

Survival improvement for pancreatic cancer has not been observed in the last 4 decades. We report the most up-to-date population-based relative survival (RS) estimates and recent trends in Germany and the United States. Data for patients diagnosed in 1997 to 2010 and followed up to 2010 were drawn from 12 population-based German cancer registries and the US SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results) 13 registries database. Using period analysis, 5-year RS for 2007 to 2010 was derived. Model-based period analysis was used to assess 5-year RS time trends, 2002-2010. In total 28,977 (Germany) and 34,793 (United States) patients aged 15 to 74 years were analyzed. Five-year RS was 10.7% and 10.3% in Germany and the United States, respectively, and strongly decreased with age and tumor spread. Prognosis slightly improved from the period 2002-2004 to 2008-2010 (overall age-adjusted RS: +2.5% units in Germany and +3.4% units in the United States); improvement was particularly strong for regional stage and head and body subsites in Germany and for localized and regional stages and tail subsite in the United States. Although pancreatic cancer survival continues to be poor for advanced-stage patients, our study disclosed encouraging indications of first improvements in 5-year RS after decades of stagnation.

Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP.

PubMed

Rindermann, Heiner; Pichelmann, Stefan

2015-01-01

The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups' (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed.

Future Cognitive Ability: US IQ Prediction until 2060 Based on NAEP

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The US National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) measures cognitive competences in reading and mathematics of US students (last 2012 survey N = 50,000). The long-term development based on results from 1971 to 2012 allows a prediction of future cognitive trends. For predicting US averages also demographic trends have to be considered. The largest groups’ (White) average of 1978/80 was set at M = 100 and SD = 15 and was used as a benchmark. Based on two past NAEP development periods for 17-year-old students, 1978/80 to 2012 (more optimistic) and 1992 to 2012 (more pessimistic), and demographic projections from the US Census Bureau, cognitive trends until 2060 for the entire age cohort and ethnic groups were estimated. Estimated population averages for 2060 are 103 (optimistic) or 102 (pessimistic). The average rise per decade is dec = 0.76 or 0.45 IQ points. White-Black and White-Hispanic gaps are declining by half, Asian-White gaps treble. The catch-up of minorities (their faster ability growth) contributes around 2 IQ to the general rise of 3 IQ; however, their larger demographic increase reduces the general rise at about the similar amount (-1.4 IQ). Because minorities with faster ability growth also rise in their population proportion the interactive term is positive (around 1 IQ). Consequences for economic and societal development are discussed. PMID:26460731

Long-term survival after childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia: population-based trends in cure and relapse by clinical characteristics.

PubMed

Smith, Lesley; Glaser, Adam W; Kinsey, Sally E; Greenwood, Darren C; Chilton, Lucy; Moorman, Anthony V; Feltbower, Richard G

2018-05-29

'Cure models' offer additional information to traditional epidemiological approaches to assess survival for cancer patients by simultaneously estimating the proportion cured and the survival of those 'uncured'. The proportion cured is a summary of long-term survival while the median survival time of the uncured provides important information on those who are not long-term survivors. Population-based trends in the cure proportion and survival of the uncured for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) by clinical prognostic risk factors were estimated using flexible parametric cure models, based on overall survival and event-free survival. Children aged 1-17 years diagnosed between 1990 and 2011 in Yorkshire, UK, were included (n = 492). The percentage cured increased from 77% (95% confidence interval 70-84%) in 1990-1997 to 89% (84-93%) in 2003-2011, while the median survival time of the uncured decreased from 3·2 years (2·2-4·1 years) to 0·7 years (0-1·5 years). Models based on event-free survival showed a similar trend. The 5-year cumulative incidence of relapse substantially decreased from 35% in 1990-97 to 9% in 2003-2011. These results show selective improvement in survival between 1990 and 2011 with a significant reduction in the risk of relapse alongside a reduced absolute duration of survival for those destined to be uncured. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Multi-scale trends analysis of landscape stressors in an urbanizing coastal watershed

EPA Science Inventory

Anthropogenic land based stressors within a watershed can deliver major impacts to downstream and adjacent coastal waterways affecting water quality and estuarine habitats. Our research focused on a subset of non-point sources of watershed stressors specifically, human population...

Cohort-specific trends in stroke mortality in seven European countries were related to infant mortality rates.

PubMed

Amiri, M; Kunst, A E; Janssen, F; Mackenbach, J P

2006-12-01

To assess, in a population-based study, whether secular trends in cardiovascular disease mortality in seven European countries were correlated with past trends in infant mortality rate (IMR) in these countries. Data on ischemic heart disease (IHD) and stroke mortality in 1950-1999 in the Netherlands, England & Wales, France, and four Nordic countries were analyzed. We used Poisson regression to describe trends in mortality according to birth cohort, for the cohorts born between 1860 and 1939. Pearson correlation coefficients were calculated to determine associations between IMR and IHD, or stroke mortality. IHD mortality increased for successive cohorts up to 1900, and then started to decline. Stroke mortality levels were virtually stable among birth cohorts up to 1880, but declined rapidly among later cohorts. A strong positive association was found between cohort-specific IMR levels and stroke mortality rates. There were no strong cohort-wise associations between IMR and IHD mortality. These results support other studies in suggesting that living conditions in early childhood may influence population levels of stroke mortality. Future studies should determine the contribution of specific early life factors to the mortality decline in IHD and especially stroke.

Temporal trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, bone mineral density, and fracture rates: a population-based historical cohort study.

PubMed

Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M; Yogendran, Marina S; Morin, Suzanne N; Metge, Colleen J; Majumdar, Sumit R

2014-04-01

Diverging international trends in fracture rates have been observed, with most reports showing that fracture rates have stabilized or decreased in North American and many European populations. We studied two complementary population-based historical cohorts from the Province of Manitoba, Canada (1996-2006) to determine whether declining osteoporotic fracture rates in Canada are attributable to trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, or bone mineral density (BMD). The Population Fracture Registry included women aged 50 years and older with major osteoporotic fractures, and was used to assess impact of changes in osteoporosis treatment. The BMD Registry included all women aged 50 years and older undergoing BMD tests, and was used to assess impact of changes in obesity and BMD. Model-based estimates of temporal changes in fracture rates (Fracture Registry) were calculated. Temporal changes in obesity and BMD and their association with fracture rates (BMD Registry) were estimated. In the Fracture Registry (n=27,341), fracture rates declined 1.6% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3% to 2.0%). Although osteoporosis treatment increased from 5.6% to 17.4%, the decline in fractures was independent of osteoporosis treatment. In the BMD Registry (n=36,587), obesity increased from 12.7% to 27.4%. Femoral neck BMD increased 0.52% per year and lumbar spine BMD increased 0.32% per year after covariate adjustment (p<0.001). Major osteoporotic fracture rates decreased in models that did not include femoral neck BMD (fully adjusted annual change -1.8%; 95% CI, -2.9 to -0.5), but adjusting for femoral neck BMD accounted for the observed reduction (annual change -0.5%; 95% CI, -1.8 to +1.0). In summary, major osteoporotic fracture rates declined substantially and linearly from 1996 to 2006, and this was explained by improvements in BMD rather than greater rates of obesity or osteoporosis treatment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Model-Based Predictions of the Effects of Harvest Mortality on Population Size and Trend of Yellow-Billed Loons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schmutz, Joel A.

2009-01-01

Yellow-billed loons (Gavia adamsii) breed in low densities in northern tundra habitats in Alaska, Canada, and Russia. They migrate to coastal marine habitats at mid to high latitudes where they spend their winters. Harvest may occur throughout the annual cycle, but of particular concern are recent reports of harvest from the Bering Strait region, which lies between Alaska and Russia and is an area used by yellow-billed loons during migration. Annual harvest for this region was reported to be 317, 45, and 1,077 during 2004, 2005, and 2007, respectively. I developed a population model to assess the effect of this reported harvest on population size and trend of yellow-billed loons. Because of the uncertainty regarding actual harvest and definition of the breeding population(s) affected by this harvest, I considered 25 different scenarios. Predicted trends across these 25 scenarios ranged from stability to rapid decline (24 percent per year) with halving of the population in 3 years. Through an assessment of literature and unpublished satellite tracking data, I suggest that the most likely of these 25 scenarios is one where the migrant population subjected to harvest in the Bering Strait includes individuals from breeding populations in Alaska (Arctic coastal plain and the Kotzebue region) and eastern Russia, and for which the magnitude of harvest varies among years and emulates the annual variation of reported harvest during 2004-07 (317, 45, and 1,077 yellow-billed loons). This scenario, which assumes no movement of Canadian breeders through the Bering Strait, predicts a 4.6 percent rate of annual population decline, which would halve the populations in 15 years. Although these model outputs reflect the best available information, confidence in these predictions and applicable scenarios would be greatly enhanced by more information on harvest, rates of survival and reproduction, and migratory pathways.

Application of Holt exponential smoothing and ARIMA method for data population in West Java

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Supriatna, A.; Susanti, D.; Hertini, E.

2017-01-01

One method of time series that is often used to predict data that contains trend is Holt. Holt method using different parameters used in the original data which aims to smooth the trend value. In addition to Holt, ARIMA method can be used on a wide variety of data including data pattern containing a pattern trend. Data actual of population from 1998-2015 contains the trends so can be solved by Holt and ARIMA method to obtain the prediction value of some periods. The best method is measured by looking at the smallest MAPE and MAE error. The result using Holt method is 47.205.749 populations in 2016, 47.535.324 populations in 2017, and 48.041.672 populations in 2018, with MAPE error is 0,469744 and MAE error is 189.731. While the result using ARIMA method is 46.964.682 populations in 2016, 47.342.189 in 2017, and 47.899.696 in 2018, with MAPE error is 0,4380 and MAE is 176.626.

[Population trends in Albania].

PubMed

Sivignon, M

1983-01-01

Recent demographic trends in Albania are reviewed. The author notes that rapid population growth persists due to continuing fertility, although the fertility rate has begun to decline during the past 20 years. Controls placed on internal migration have succeeded in restricting the growth of the urban population and have contributed to the sustained growth of the population in rural areas. (summary in ENG)

Population structure in the Arab world and its impact on integration and development trends.

PubMed

El-hallak, M N

1986-12-01

The author examines three issues: "population structure in the Arab world; trends making for integration and unity among the Arab countries; and economic and social development trends." Data from the United Nations for 1985 and from recent censuses are used to discuss population size, growth, and spatial distribution; the labor force; age and sex distribution; and fertility, mortality, and natural increase. Figures are presented separately for 22 Arab countries. Attention is then given to the relationships between population structure and economic and social development and between development and Arab unity and integration. excerpt

Abundance Trends and Status of the Little Colorado River Population of Humpback Chub: An Update Considering Data From 1989-2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coggins,, Lewis G.; Walters, Carl J.

2009-01-01

Mark-recapture methods have been used for the past two decades to assess trends in adult abundance and recruitment of the Little Colorado River (LCR) population of humpback chub. These methods indicate that the adult population declined through the 1980s and early 1990s but has been increasing for the past decade. Recruitment appears also to have increased, particularly in the 2003-4 period. Considering a range of assumed natural mortality-rates and magnitude of ageing error, it is unlikely that there are currently less than 6,000 adults or more than 10,000 adults. Our best estimate of the current adult (age 4 years or more) population is approximately 7,650 fish. Recent humpback chub assessments using the Age-Structured Mark-Recapture model (ASMR) and reported in 2006 (Melis and others, 2006) and 2008 (Coggins, 2008a,b) have provided abundance and recruitment trend estimates that have changed progressively over time as more data are considered by the model. The general pattern of change implies a less severe decline in adult abundance during the late 1980s through early 1990s, with attendant changes in recruitment supporting this demographic pattern. We have been concerned that these changes are not indicative of the true population and may be associated with a 'retrospective' bias as additional data are included in the ASMR model. To investigate this possibility, we developed a realistic individual-based simulation model (IBM) to generate replicate artificial data sets with similar characteristics to the true humpback chub data. The artificial data have known abundance trends and we analyzed these data with ASMR. On the basis of these simulations, we believe that errors in assigning age (and therefore brood-year) to fish based on their length are likely to have caused the retrospective bias pattern seen in the assessments and to have caused both less severe trends in the adult abundance estimates and progressively more severe downward bias in estimates of adult mortality-rates. This 'smearing', or assignment of fish from a single brood-year into multiple incorrect brood-years, is a result of variation in growth rates. The IBM simulations indicate that as a result of this error source, the best estimates of abundance and recruitment for any calendar year are those obtained from data collected previous to and within a year or two after each calendar year.

Trends in Classroom Observation Scores

PubMed Central

Lockwood, J. R.; McCaffrey, Daniel F.

2014-01-01

Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System–Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from 458 middle school teachers over a 2-year period to study changes over time in (a) the average quality of teaching for the population of teachers, (b) the average severity of the population of raters, and (c) the severity of individual raters. To obtain these estimates and assess them in the context of other factors that contribute to the variability in scores, we develop an augmented G study model that is broadly applicable for modeling sources of variability in classroom observation ratings data collected over time. In our data, we found that trends in teaching quality were small. Rater drift was very large during raters’ initial days of observation and persisted throughout nearly 2 years of scoring. Raters did not converge to a common level of severity; using our model we estimate that variability among raters actually increases over the course of the study. Variance decompositions based on the model find that trends are a modest source of variance relative to overall rater effects, rater errors on specific lessons, and residual error. The discussion provides possible explanations for trends and rater divergence as well as implications for designs collecting ratings over time. PMID:29795823

Trends in Classroom Observation Scores.

PubMed

Casabianca, Jodi M; Lockwood, J R; McCaffrey, Daniel F

2015-04-01

Observations and ratings of classroom teaching and interactions collected over time are susceptible to trends in both the quality of instruction and rater behavior. These trends have potential implications for inferences about teaching and for study design. We use scores on the Classroom Assessment Scoring System-Secondary (CLASS-S) protocol from 458 middle school teachers over a 2-year period to study changes over time in (a) the average quality of teaching for the population of teachers, (b) the average severity of the population of raters, and (c) the severity of individual raters. To obtain these estimates and assess them in the context of other factors that contribute to the variability in scores, we develop an augmented G study model that is broadly applicable for modeling sources of variability in classroom observation ratings data collected over time. In our data, we found that trends in teaching quality were small. Rater drift was very large during raters' initial days of observation and persisted throughout nearly 2 years of scoring. Raters did not converge to a common level of severity; using our model we estimate that variability among raters actually increases over the course of the study. Variance decompositions based on the model find that trends are a modest source of variance relative to overall rater effects, rater errors on specific lessons, and residual error. The discussion provides possible explanations for trends and rater divergence as well as implications for designs collecting ratings over time.

[Book review] Birds in Europe: Population estimates, trends and conservation status

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, Bruce G.

2006-01-01

Effective bird conservation requires knowledge of distribution, relative abundance, and population trends at multiple geographic scales. Obtaining this information for a continental avifauna poses considerable challenges, especially in Europe with its 52 countries, numerous languages and cultures, and disparate resources available for monitoring bird populations within each country. Synthesizing the available information on the status and trends of all European birds into a single volume is an enormous yet essential task necessary to direct bird conservation activities across the continent.

Firearm and nonfirearm homicide in 5 South African cities: a retrospective population-based study.

PubMed

Matzopoulos, Richard G; Thompson, Mary Lou; Myers, Jonathan E

2014-03-01

We assessed the effectiveness of South Africa's Firearm Control Act (FCA), passed in 2000, on firearm homicide rates compared with rates of nonfirearm homicide across 5 South African cities from 2001 to 2005. We conducted a retrospective population-based study of 37 067 firearm and nonfirearm homicide cases. Generalized linear models helped estimate and compare time trends of firearm and nonfirearm homicides, adjusting for age, sex, race, day of week, city, year of death, and population size. There was a statistically significant decreasing trend regarding firearm homicides from 2001, with an adjusted year-on-year homicide rate ratio of 0.864 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.848, 0.880), representing a decrease of 13.6% per annum. The year-on-year decrease in nonfirearm homicide rates was also significant, but considerably lower at 0.976 (95% CI = 0.954, 0.997). Results suggest that 4585 (95% CI = 4427, 4723) lives were saved across 5 cities from 2001 to 2005 because of the FCA. Strength, timing and consistent decline suggest stricter gun control mediated by the FCA accounted for a significant decrease in homicide overall, and firearm homicide in particular, during the study period.

Understanding the contribution of habitats and regional variation to long-term population trends in tricolored blackbirds

PubMed Central

Graves, Emily E; Holyoak, Marcel; Rodd Kelsey, T; Meese, Robert J

2013-01-01

Population trends represent a minimum amount of information required to assess the conservation status of a species. However, understanding and detecting trends can be complicated by variation among habitats and regions, and by dispersal connecting habitats through source-sink dynamics. We analyzed trends in breeding populations between habitats and regions to better understand the overall dynamics of a species' decline. Specifically, we analyzed historical trends in breeding populations of tricolored blackbirds (Agelaius tricolor) using breeding records from 1907 to 2009. The species breeds itinerantly and ephemerally uses multiple habitat types and breeding areas, which make interpretation of trends complex. We found overall abundance declines of 63% between 1935 and 1975. Since 1980 overall declines became nonsignificant and obscure despite large amounts of data from 1980 to 2009. Temporal trends differed between breeding habitat types and were associated with regional differences in population declines. A new habitat, triticale crops (a wheat-rye hybrid grain) produced colonies 40× larger, on average, than other breeding habitats, and contributed to a change in regional distribution since it primarily occurred in a single region. The mechanism for such an effect is not clear, but could represent the local availability of foodstuffs in the landscape rather than something specific to triticale crops. While variation in trends among habitats clearly occurred, they could not easily be ascribed to source-sink dynamics, ecological traps, habitat selection or other detailed ecological mechanisms. Nonetheless, such exchanges provide valuable information to guide management of dynamic systems. PMID:24101977

Risk factors for lentigo maligna melanoma compared with superficial spreading melanoma: a case-control study in Australia.

PubMed

Kvaskoff, Marina; Siskind, Victor; Green, Adèle C

2012-02-01

To investigate risk factors for lentigo maligna melanoma (LMM) compared with superficial spreading melanoma (SSM). Population-based case-control study in Queensland, Australia. General community. Population-based sample of 49 patients with LMM and 141 with SSM (in situ or invasive) aged 14 to 86 years at diagnosis in 1979 and 1980 and 232 control subjects. Response rates were 97.1% in cases and 91.8% in controls. Risks of both subtypes in relation to phenotypic and environmental factors, estimated by multinomial logistic regression. The number of solar lentigines was the strongest determinant for LMM (odds ratio [OR], 15.93; P < .001 for trend) and significantly weaker for SSM (4.61; P < .001 for trend; P = .04 for homogeneity). Skin cancer history was significantly associated with LMM (OR, 2.84) but not with SSM (1.33; P = .07 for homogeneity). In contrast, the number of nevi was the strongest determinant for SSM (OR, 23.22; P < .001 for trend) while significantly weaker for LMM (3.60; P = .02 for trend; P < .001 for homogeneity). Multiple lifetime sunburns almost tripled the risk for SSM, whereas no association was detected with LMM (P = .04 for homogeneity). Shared risk factors for both subtypes were the number of solar keratoses (P < .001 for trend for both) and sun-sensitive complexion (ie, light eye/hair colors, sunburn propensity, and freckling) (2-fold to 5-fold increased risks). A propensity to lentigines is a stronger predictor of LMM, whereas high nevus propensity is a stronger predictor of SSM. Skin cancer history appears to determine LMM risk only, whereas the number of lifetime sunburns determines SSM only. Prevention strategies could be tailored differently given these distinctive points of difference.

Increase in breast cancer incidence among older women in Mumbai: 30-year trends and predictions to 2025.

PubMed

Dikshit, Rajesh P; Yeole, B B; Nagrani, Rajini; Dhillon, P; Badwe, R; Bray, Freddie

2012-08-01

Increasing trends in the incidence of breast cancer have been observed in India, including Mumbai. These have likely stemmed from an increasing adoption of lifestyle factors more akin to those commonly observed in westernized countries. Analyses of breast cancer trends and corresponding estimation of the future burden are necessary to better plan rationale cancer control programmes within the country. We used data from the population-based Mumbai Cancer Registry to study time trends in breast cancer incidence rates 1976-2005 and stratified them according to younger (25-49) and older age group (50-74). Age-period-cohort models were fitted and the net drift used as a measure of the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Age-period-cohort models and population projections were used to predict the age-adjusted rates and number of breast cancer cases circa 2025. Breast cancer incidence increased significantly among older women over three decades (EAPC = 1.6%; 95% CI 1.1-2.0), while lesser but significant 1% increase in incidence among younger women was observed (EAPC = 1.0; 95% CI 0.2-1.8). Non-linear period and cohort effects were observed; a trends-based model predicted a close-to-doubling of incident cases by 2025 from 1300 mean cases per annum in 2001-2005 to over 2500 cases in 2021-2025. The incidence of breast cancer has increased in Mumbai during last two to three decades, with increases greater among older women. The number of breast cancer cases is predicted to double to over 2500 cases, the vast majority affecting older women. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in sunburns, sun protection practices, and attitudes toward sun exposure protection and tanning among US adolescents, 1998-2004.

PubMed

Cokkinides, Vilma; Weinstock, Martin; Glanz, Karen; Albano, Jessica; Ward, Elizabeth; Thun, Michael

2006-09-01

Sun exposure in childhood is an important risk factor for developing skin cancer as an adult. Despite extensive efforts to reduce sun exposure among the young, there are no population-based data on trends in sunburns and sun protection practices in the young. The aim of this study was to describe nationally representative trend data on sunburns, sun protection, and attitudes related to sun exposure among US youth. Cross-sectional telephone surveys of youth aged 11 to 18 years in 1998 (N = 1196) and in 2004 (N = 1613) were conducted using a 2-stage sampling process to draw population-based samples. The surveys asked identical questions about sun protection, number of sunburns experienced, and attitudes toward sun exposure. Time trends were evaluated using pooled logistic regression analysis. In 2004, 69% of subjects reported having been sunburned during the summer, not significantly less than in 1998 (72%). There was a significant decrease in the percentage of those aged 11 to 15 years who reported sunburns and a nonsignificant increase among the 16- to 18-year-olds. The proportion of youth who reported regular sunscreen use increased significantly from 31% to 39%. Little change occurred in other recommended sun protection practices. A small reduction in sunburn frequency and modest increases in sun protection practices were observed among youth between 1998 and 2004, despite widespread sun protection campaigns. Nevertheless, the decrease in sunburns among younger teens may be cause for optimism regarding future trends. Overall, there was rather limited progress in improving sun protection practices and reducing sunburns among US youth between 1998 and 2004.

Temporal trends of copper-bearing intrauterine device discontinuation: a population-based birth-cohort study of contraceptive use among rural married women in China.

PubMed

Zhou, Jie; Tan, Xiaodong; Song, Xiangjing; Zhang, Kaining; Fang, Jing; Peng, Lin; Qi, Wencai; Nie, Zonghui; Li, Ming; Deng, Rui; Yan, Chaofang

2015-03-01

Copper-bearing intrauterine device (IUD) insertion for long-term contraceptive use is high in China, but there has been evidence that first-year discontinuation rate of copper-bearing IUD has also increased rapidly in recent years especially among rural married women. To investigate long-term use of copper-bearing IUD, the authors examined the 7-year temporal trends of copper-bearing IUD discontinuation in a population-based birth-cohort study among 720 rural married women in China, from 2004 to 2012. Women requesting contraception were followed-up twice per year after the insertion of IUD. The gross cumulative life table discontinuation rates were calculated for each of the main reasons for discontinuation as well as for all reasons combined. By the end of 7 years, 384 discontinuations were observed. With a stepped-up trend, the gross cumulative life table rate for discontinuation increased from 10.06 (95% confidence interval = 7.86-12.27) per 100 women by the first year to 52.69 (95% confidence interval = 48.94-56.44) per 100 women by the end of 7 years, which increased rapidly in the first 2 years after copper-bearing IUD insertion, flattened out gradually in the following 2 years, then increased again in the last 3 years. Among reported method failure, expulsion and side effects were the main reasons for discontinuation of the copper-bearing IUD but not pregnancy. Personal reasons, such as renewal by personal will had influenced copper-bearing IUD use since the second year and should not be neglected. Based on this study, the temporal trends of copper-bearing IUD discontinuation was in a stepped-up trend in 7 years after insertion. Both reported method failure (expulsion and side effect) and personal reason had effect on the discontinuation of copper-bearing IUD, but pregnancy was no more the most important reason affecting the use of copper-bearing IUD. © 2014 APJPH.

Proyección de médicos especialistas para el Sector Salud de México a 2030. Un método para estimar requerimientos y planificar su formación.

PubMed

Fajardo-Dolci, Germán; Santacruz-Varela, Javier

2017-01-01

Carry out the projection of medical specialists in the Health Sector Mexico by 2030. A predictive approach was developed to project the number of medical specialists by 2030, according to a trend, a desired goal and two conventional scenarios of increased demand for health services. The methodology was developed based on the General Framework to Assess the Future Supply and Demand of Health Personnel, published in 2013 by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), and a mathematical model and a software were designed to make projections about the number of specialists. According to the trend, between 2013 and 2030, the number of specialists will be increased by 90,554 to 124,558 and the rate will be change of 77/100.000 population to 91/100,000 population. If is necessary to achieve a goal of 120/100,000, will be necessary to train 40,420 additional specialists to the trend number and if the demand for services increases 15% or 30%, will require further training specialists 65,166 and 89,913, respectively. Even with the trend increase, in the 2030 Mexico will not achieve the desired goal of 126/100,000 population, that the OECD countries had in 2011. The results of the projections made, can help to planning the training of specialists in the medium term. Copyright: © 2017 SecretarÍa de Salud

Comparison of Salmonella enteritidis phage types isolated from layers and humans in Belgium in 2005.

PubMed

Welby, Sarah; Imberechts, Hein; Riocreux, Flavien; Bertrand, Sophie; Dierick, Katelijne; Wildemauwe, Christa; Hooyberghs, Jozef; Van der Stede, Yves

2011-08-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the available results for Belgium of the European Union coordinated monitoring program (2004/665 EC) on Salmonella in layers in 2005, as well as the results of the monthly outbreak reports of Salmonella Enteritidis in humans in 2005 to identify a possible statistical significant trend in both populations. Separate descriptive statistics and univariate analysis were carried out and the parametric and/or non-parametric hypothesis tests were conducted. A time cluster analysis was performed for all Salmonella Enteritidis phage types (PTs) isolated. The proportions of each Salmonella Enteritidis PT in layers and in humans were compared and the monthly distribution of the most common PT, isolated in both populations, was evaluated. The time cluster analysis revealed significant clusters during the months May and June for layers and May, July, August, and September for humans. PT21, the most frequently isolated PT in both populations in 2005, seemed to be responsible of these significant clusters. PT4 was the second most frequently isolated PT. No significant difference was found for the monthly trend evolution of both PT in both populations based on parametric and non-parametric methods. A similar monthly trend of PT distribution in humans and layers during the year 2005 was observed. The time cluster analysis and the statistical significance testing confirmed these results. Moreover, the time cluster analysis showed significant clusters during the summer time and slightly delayed in time (humans after layers). These results suggest a common link between the prevalence of Salmonella Enteritidis in layers and the occurrence of the pathogen in humans. Phage typing was confirmed to be a useful tool for identifying temporal trends.

Diabetes and depression? Secular trends in the use of antidepressants among persons with diabetes in Finland in 1997-2007.

PubMed

Manderbacka, Kristiina; Sund, Reijo; Koski, Sari; Keskimäki, Ilmo; Elovainio, Marko

2011-04-01

The association between diabetes and depression is well demonstrated. Less is known about the trends in use of antidepressants in the rapidly growing population of diabetics. We examined trends in antidepressant medication use during 1997-2007 in Finland among persons with or without diabetes using register-based data on both diabetes and antidepressant use. The diabetes population was obtained from the FinDM II database including 50,027 persons with insulin treated (ITDM) and 346,290 persons with non-insulin treated diabetes (NITDM) identified from several administrative registers. Data on persons without diabetes were obtained from the yearly population statistics and their antidepressant use from the register for refunded prescription medicine costs covering all medicine purchases of non-institutionalised residents. Differences in trends and prevalence were examined using the binomial regression model. Antidepressant use was more common among persons with diabetes in all age groups and each study year among both genders (prevalence ratios (RR) 1.4-2.2 for women and 1.7-2.2 for men). Prevalence was both higher (RR 2.0-2.2 women, 1.9-2.2 men), and increased more rapidly among younger persons with NITDM. The use of register data linked using unique personal identifiers allowed us to identify a total cohort of persons with diabetes, to separate between ITDM and NITDM patients and to examine patterns of antidepressant use in populations with and without diabetes during an 11 year study period. Our results suggest that more attention should be focused on psychological well-being in those with diabetes and especially young people in risk of type 2 diabetes. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Trends in marriage and time spent single in sub-Saharan Africa: a comparative analysis of six population-based cohort studies and nine Demographic and Health Surveys.

PubMed

Marston, M; Slaymaker, E; Cremin, I; Floyd, S; McGrath, N; Kasamba, I; Lutalo, T; Nyirenda, M; Ndyanabo, A; Mupambireyi, Z; Zaba, B

2009-04-01

To describe trends in age at first sex (AFS), age at first marriage (AFM) and time spent single between events and to compare age-specific trends in marital status in six cohort studies. Cohort data from Uganda, Tanzania, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Malawi and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Uganda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe were analysed. Life table methods were used to calculate median AFS, AFM and time spent single. In each study, two surveys were chosen to compare marital status by age and identify changes over time. Median AFM was much higher in South Africa than in the other sites. Between the other populations there were considerable differences in median AFS and AFM (AFS 17-19 years for men and 16-19 years for women, AFM 21-24 years and 18-19 years, respectively, for the 1970-9 birth cohort). In all surveys, men reported a longer time spent single than women (median 4-7 years for men and 0-2 years for women). Median years spent single for women has increased, apart from in Manicaland. For men in Rakai it has decreased slightly over time but increased in Kisesa and Masaka. The DHS data showed similar trends to those in the cohort data. The age-specific proportion of married individuals has changed little over time. Median AFS, AFM and time spent single vary considerably among these populations. These three measures are underlying determinants of sexual risk and HIV infection, and they may partially explain the variation in HIV prevalence levels between these populations.

Trends in marriage and time spent single in sub-Saharan Africa: a comparative analysis of six population-based cohort studies and nine Demographic and Health Surveys

PubMed Central

Marston, M; Slaymaker, E; Cremin, I; Floyd, S; McGrath, N; Kasamba, I; Lutalo, T; Nyirenda, M; Ndyanabo, A; Mupambireyi, Z; Żaba, B

2009-01-01

Objectives: To describe trends in age at first sex (AFS), age at first marriage (AFM) and time spent single between events and to compare age-specific trends in marital status in six cohort studies. Methods: Cohort data from Uganda, Tanzania, South Africa, Zimbabwe and Malawi and Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data from Uganda, Tanzania and Zimbabwe were analysed. Life table methods were used to calculate median AFS, AFM and time spent single. In each study, two surveys were chosen to compare marital status by age and identify changes over time. Results: Median AFM was much higher in South Africa than in the other sites. Between the other populations there were considerable differences in median AFS and AFM (AFS 17–19 years for men and 16–19 years for women, AFM 21–24 years and 18–19 years, respectively, for the 1970–9 birth cohort). In all surveys, men reported a longer time spent single than women (median 4–7 years for men and 0–2 years for women). Median years spent single for women has increased, apart from in Manicaland. For men in Rakai it has decreased slightly over time but increased in Kisesa and Masaka. The DHS data showed similar trends to those in the cohort data. The age-specific proportion of married individuals has changed little over time. Conclusions: Median AFS, AFM and time spent single vary considerably among these populations. These three measures are underlying determinants of sexual risk and HIV infection, and they may partially explain the variation in HIV prevalence levels between these populations. PMID:19307343

When are genetic methods useful for estimating contemporary abundance and detecting population trends?

Treesearch

David A. Tallmon; Dave Gregovich; Robin S. Waples; C. Scott Baker; Jennifer Jackson; Barbara L. Taylor; Eric Archer; Karen K. Martien; Fred W. Allendorf; Michael K. Schwartz

2010-01-01

The utility of microsatellite markers for inferring population size and trend has not been rigorously examined, even though these markers are commonly used to monitor the demography of natural populations. We assessed the ability of a linkage disequilibrium estimator of effective population size (Ne) and a simple capture-recapture estimator of abundance (N) to quantify...

Northwest Forest Plan—the first 20 years (1994–2013): status and trend of marbled murrelet populations and nesting habitat

Treesearch

Gary A. Falxa; Martin G. Raphael

2016-01-01

A conservation goal of the Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) is to stabilize and increase marbled murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) populations by maintaining and increasing nesting habitat. We monitored murrelet populations offshore of the NWFP area from 2000 to 2013 to estimate population size and trend at several spatial scales. At the...

Do HIV Prevalence Trends in ANC Surveillance Represent Trends in the General Population in the ART Era? The Case of Manicaland, East Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Gregson, Simon; Dharmayat, Kanika; Pereboom, Monique; Takaruza, Albert; Mugurungi, Owen; Schur, Nadine; Nyamukapa, Constance A.

2016-01-01

Objective National estimates of HIV trends in generalised epidemics rely on HIV prevalence data from antenatal clinic (ANC) surveillance. We investigate whether HIV prevalence trends in ANC data reflect trends in men and women in the general population during the scale-up of anti-retroviral treatment (ART) in Manicaland, Zimbabwe. Methods Trends in HIV prevalence in local ANC attendees and adults aged 15-49yrs in towns, agricultural estates, and villages were compared using five rounds of parallel ANC (N≈1,200) and general-population surveys (N≈10,000) and multi-variable log-linear regression. Changes in the age-pattern of HIV prevalence and the age-distribution of ANC attendees were compared with those in the general population. Age-specific pregnancy prevalence rates were compared by HIV infection and ART status. Results Cumulatively, from 1998-2000 to 2009-2011, HIV prevalence fell by 60.0% (95% CI, 51.1%-67.3%) in ANC surveillance data and by 34.3% (30.8%-37.7%) in the general population. Most of the difference arose following the introduction of ART (2006-2011). The estates and villages reflected this overall pattern but HIV prevalence in the towns was lower at local ANCs than in the general population, largely due to attendance by pregnant women from outlying (lower prevalence) areas. The ageing of people living with HIV in the general population (52.4% aged >35yrs, 2009-2011) was under-represented in the ANC data (12.6%) due to lower fertility in older and HIV-infected women. Conclusion After the introduction of ART in Manicaland, HIV prevalence declined more steeply in ANC surveillance data than in the general population. Models used for HIV estimates must reflect this change in bias. PMID:26372390

Mourning dove population trend estimates from Call-Count and North American Breeding Bird Surveys

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Dolton, D.D.; Droege, S.

1994-01-01

The mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) Callcount Survey and the North American Breeding Bird Survey provide information on population trends of mourning doves throughout the continental United States. Because surveys are an integral part of the development of hunting regulations, a need exists to determine which survey provides precise information. We estimated population trends from 1966 to 1988 by state and dove management unit, and assessed the relative efficiency of each survey. Estimates of population trend differ (P lt 0.05) between surveys in 11 of 48 states; 9 of 11 states with divergent results occur in the Eastern Management Unit. Differences were probably a consequence of smaller sample sizes in the Callcount Survey. The Breeding Bird Survey generally provided trend estimates with smaller variances than did the Callcount Survey. Although the Callcount Survey probably provides more withinroute accuracy because of survey methods and timing, the Breeding Bird Survey has a larger sample size of survey routes and greater consistency of coverage in the Eastern Unit.

The Soviet Union: Population Trends and Dilemmas.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feshbach, Murray

1982-01-01

Recent trends and differentials among the Soviet Union's 15 republics and major nationalities are reviewed, focusing on fertility, mortality and urbanization, the prospect for labor supplies and military manpower, emigration, and projected population growth to 2000. Estimated at 270 million as of mid-1982, the Soviet population is currently…

Red-cockaded woodpecker population trends and management on Texas national forests

Treesearch

Richard N. Conner; D. Craig Rudolph

1994-01-01

Red-cockaded Woodpecker (Picoides borealis) population trends and concurrent management on four national forests in eastern Texas were evaluated from 1983 through 1993. Following years of decline, populations stabilized and began to increase after intensive management efforts were initiated. Management activities included control of hardwood midstory and understory,...

Turning Despondency into Hope: Charting New Paths to Improve Students' Achievement and Participation in Science Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rodriguez, Alberto J.

2004-01-01

This monograph offers a realistic look at current trends in student achievement in science education, the participation of underrepresented populations, and the many factors that serve to sustain them. In addition, it offers new insights and concrete suggestions for change based on the analysis of recent reports and promising field-based studies.…

Monitoring, modeling, and management: why base avian management on vital rates and how should it be done?

Treesearch

David F. DeSante; M. Philip Nott; Danielle R. Kaschube

2005-01-01

In this paper we argue that effective management of landbirds should be based on assessing and monitoring their vital rates (primary demographic parameters) as well as population trends. This is because environmental stressors and management actions affect vital rates directly and usually without time lags, and because monitoring vital rates provides a) information on...

Online Resources for Identifying Evidence-Based, Out-of-School Time Programs: A User's Guide. Research-to-Results Brief. Publication #2009-36

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Terzian; Mary; Moore, Kristin Anderson; Williams-Taylor, Lisa; Nguyen, Hoan

2009-01-01

Child Trends produced this Guide to assist funders, administrators, and practitioners in identifying and navigating online resources to find evidence-based programs that may be appropriate for their target populations and communities. The Guide offers an overview of 21 of these resources--11 searchable online databases, 2 online interactive…

Impact of Demographic Trends on Future Development Patterns and the Loss of Open Space in the California Mojave Desert

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Impact of demographic trends on future development patterns and the loss of open space in the California Mojave Desert.

PubMed

Gomben, Peter; Lilieholm, Robert; Gonzalez-Guillen, Manuel

2012-02-01

During the post-World War II era, the Mojave Desert Region of San Bernardino County, California, has experienced rapid levels of population growth. Over the past several decades, growth has accelerated, accompanied by significant shifts in ethnic composition, most notably from predominantly White non-Hispanic to Hispanic. This study explores the impacts of changing ethnicity on future development and the loss of open space by modeling ethnic propensities regarding family size and settlement preferences reflected by U.S. Census Bureau data. Demographic trends and land conversion data were obtained for seven Mojave Desert communities for the period between 1990 and 2001. Using a spatially explicit, logistic regression-based urban growth model, these data and trends were used to project community-specific future growth patterns from 2000 to 2020 under three future settlement scenarios: (1) an "historic" scenario reported in earlier research that uses a Mojave-wide average settlement density of 3.76 persons/ha; (2) an "existing" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities as of 2001; and (3) a "demographic futures" scenario based on community-specific settlement densities that explicitly model the Region's changing ethnicity. Results found that under the demographic futures scenario, by 2020 roughly 53% of within-community open space would remain, under the existing scenario only 40% would remain, and under the historic scenario model the communities would have what amounts to a deficit of open space. Differences in the loss of open space across the scenarios demonstrate the importance of considering demographic trends that are reflective of the residential needs and preferences of projected future populations.

Hierarchical models and the analysis of bird survey information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Link, W.A.

2003-01-01

Management of birds often requires analysis of collections of estimates. We describe a hierarchical modeling approach to the analysis of these data, in which parameters associated with the individual species estimates are treated as random variables, and probability statements are made about the species parameters conditioned on the data. A Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure is used to fit the hierarchical model. This approach is computer intensive, and is based upon simulation. MCMC allows for estimation both of parameters and of derived statistics. To illustrate the application of this method, we use the case in which we are interested in attributes of a collection of estimates of population change. Using data for 28 species of grassland-breeding birds from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we estimate the number of species with increasing populations, provide precision-adjusted rankings of species trends, and describe a measure of population stability as the probability that the trend for a species is within a certain interval. Hierarchical models can be applied to a variety of bird survey applications, and we are investigating their use in estimation of population change from survey data.

Development of a robust analytical framework for assessing landbird trends, dynamics and relationships with environmental covariates in the North Coast and Cascades Network

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Chris; Saracco, James; Jenkins, Kurt J.; Huff, Mark; Happe, Patricia J.; Ransom, Jason I.

2017-01-01

During 2015-2016, we completed development of a new analytical framework for landbird population monitoring data from the National Park Service (NPS) North Coast and Cascades Inventory and Monitoring Network (NCCN). This new tool for analysis combines several recent advances in modeling population status and trends using point-count data and is designed to supersede the approach previously slated for analysis of trends in the NCCN and other networks, including the Sierra Nevada Network (SIEN). Advances supported by the new model-based approach include 1) the use of combined data on distance and time of detection to estimate detection probability without assuming perfect detection at zero distance, 2) seamless accommodation of variation in sampling effort and missing data, and 3) straightforward estimation of the effects of downscaled climate and other local habitat characteristics on spatial and temporal trends in landbird populations. No changes in the current field protocol are necessary to facilitate the new analyses. We applied several versions of the new model to data from each of 39 species recorded in the three mountain parks of the NCCN, estimating trends and climate relationships for each species during 2005-2014. Our methods and results are also reported in a manuscript in revision for the journal Ecosphere (hereafter, Ray et al.). Here, we summarize the methods and results outlined in depth by Ray et al., discuss benefits of the new analytical framework, and provide recommendations for its application to synthetic analyses of long-term data from the NCCN and SIEN. All code necessary for implementing the new analyses is provided within the Appendices to this report, in the form of fully annotated scripts written in the open-access programming languages R and JAGS.

Epicardial Adipose Tissue in the General Middle-aged Population and Its Association With Metabolic Syndrome.

PubMed

Calabuig, Álvaro; Barba, Joaquín; Guembe, María Jesús; Díez, Javier; Berjón, Jesús; Martínez-Vila, Eduardo; Irimia, Pablo; Toledo, Estefanía

2017-04-01

There is currently increasing interest in epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) as a marker of cardiovascular disease. Our purpose was to describe EAT, measured by transthoracic echocardiography, and to assess its association with metabolic syndrome (MS) in the RIVANA population-based study. Physical examination was performed in 880 participants aged 45 to 74 years (492 of them with MS according to the harmonized definition). Fasting glucose, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, and C-reactive protein concentrations were determined in a blood sample. In all participants, EAT thickness was measured with transthoracic echocardiography at end-systole. Among participants without MS, the prevalence of EAT ≥ 5mm significantly increased with age (OR > 65 years vs 45-54 years=8.22; 95%CI, 3.90-17.35; P for trend<.001). Increasing EAT quintiles were significantly associated with MS (OR fifth quintile vs first quintile=3.26; 95%CI, 1.59-6.71; P for trend=.001). Considering the different MS criteria, increasing quintiles of EAT were independently associated with low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (OR fifth quintile vs first quintile=2.65; 95%CI, 1.16-6.05; P for trend=.028), high triglycerides (OR fifth quintile vs first quintile=2.22; 95%CI, 1.26-3.90; P for trend=.003), and elevated waist circumference (OR fifth quintile vs first quintile=6.85; 95%CI, 2.91-16.11; P for trend<.001). In a subsample of the general population, EAT measured by echocardiography increased significantly and independently with age. Increased EAT thickness was independently associated with MS and with low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high triglycerides, and elevated waist circumference as individual criteria. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U.

GIS based analysis of Intercity Fatal Road Traffic Accidents in Iran

PubMed Central

Alizadeh, A; Zare, M; Darparesh, M; Mohseni, S; Soleimani-Ahmadi, M

2015-01-01

Road traffic accidents including intercity car traffic accidents (ICTAs) are among the most important causes of morbidity and mortality due to the growing number of vehicles, risky behaviors, and changes in lifestyle of the general population. A sound knowledge of the geographical distribution of car traffic accidents can be considered as an approach towards the accident causation and it can be used as an administrative tool in allocating the sources for traffic accidents prevention. This study was conducted to investigate the geographical distribution and the time trend of fatal intercity car traffic accidents in Iran. To conduct this descriptive study, all Iranian intercity road traffic mortality data were obtained from the Police reports in the Statistical Yearbook of the Governor’s Budget and Planning. The obtained data were for 17 complete Iranian calendar years from March 1997 to March 2012. The incidence rate (IR) of fatal ICTAs for each year was calculated as the total number of fatal ICTAs in every 100000 population in specified time intervals. Figures and maps indicating the trends and geographical distribution of fatal ICTAs were prepared while using Microsoft Excel and ArcGis9.2 software. The number of fatal car accidents showed a general increasing trend from 3000 in 1996 to 13500 in 2012. The incidence of fatal intercity car accidents has changed from six in 100000 population in 1996 to 18 in 100000 population in 2012. GIS based data showed that the incidence rate of ICTAs in different provinces of Iran was very divergent. The highest incidence of fatal ICTAs was in Semnan province (IR= 35.2), followed by North Khorasan (IR=22.7), and South Khorasan (IR=22). The least incidence of fatal ICTAs was in Tehran province (IR=2.4) followed by Khozestan (IR=6.5), and Eastern Azarbayejan (IR=6.6). The compensation cost of fatal ICTAs also showed an increasing trend during the studied period. Since an increasing amount of money was being paid yearly for the car accidents, which were in their nature preventable, the key players in road safety including governments, car manufacturers, and road developers were recommended to use GIS based accident data for a more efficient planning and budgeting towards the intercity car accidents reduction. PMID:28255402

GIS based analysis of Intercity Fatal Road Traffic Accidents in Iran.

PubMed

Alizadeh, A; Zare, M; Darparesh, M; Mohseni, S; Soleimani-Ahmadi, M

2015-01-01

Road traffic accidents including intercity car traffic accidents (ICTAs) are among the most important causes of morbidity and mortality due to the growing number of vehicles, risky behaviors, and changes in lifestyle of the general population. A sound knowledge of the geographical distribution of car traffic accidents can be considered as an approach towards the accident causation and it can be used as an administrative tool in allocating the sources for traffic accidents prevention. This study was conducted to investigate the geographical distribution and the time trend of fatal intercity car traffic accidents in Iran. To conduct this descriptive study, all Iranian intercity road traffic mortality data were obtained from the Police reports in the Statistical Yearbook of the Governor's Budget and Planning. The obtained data were for 17 complete Iranian calendar years from March 1997 to March 2012. The incidence rate (IR) of fatal ICTAs for each year was calculated as the total number of fatal ICTAs in every 100000 population in specified time intervals. Figures and maps indicating the trends and geographical distribution of fatal ICTAs were prepared while using Microsoft Excel and ArcGis9.2 software. The number of fatal car accidents showed a general increasing trend from 3000 in 1996 to 13500 in 2012. The incidence of fatal intercity car accidents has changed from six in 100000 population in 1996 to 18 in 100000 population in 2012. GIS based data showed that the incidence rate of ICTAs in different provinces of Iran was very divergent. The highest incidence of fatal ICTAs was in Semnan province (IR= 35.2), followed by North Khorasan (IR=22.7), and South Khorasan (IR=22). The least incidence of fatal ICTAs was in Tehran province (IR=2.4) followed by Khozestan (IR=6.5), and Eastern Azarbayejan (IR=6.6). The compensation cost of fatal ICTAs also showed an increasing trend during the studied period. Since an increasing amount of money was being paid yearly for the car accidents, which were in their nature preventable, the key players in road safety including governments, car manufacturers, and road developers were recommended to use GIS based accident data for a more efficient planning and budgeting towards the intercity car accidents reduction.

Trends in Dementia Incidence in a Birth Cohort Analysis of the Einstein Aging Study.

PubMed

Derby, Carol A; Katz, Mindy J; Lipton, Richard B; Hall, Charles B

2017-11-01

Trends in dementia incidence rates have important implications for planning and prevention. To better understand incidence trends over time requires separation of age and cohort effects, and few prior studies have used this approach. To examine trends in dementia incidence and concomitant trends in cardiovascular comorbidities among individuals aged 70 years or older who were enrolled in the Einstein Aging Study between 1993 and 2015. In this birth cohort analysis of all-cause dementia incidence in persons enrolled in the Einstein Aging Study from October 20, 1993, through November 17, 2015, a systematically recruited, population-based sample of 1348 participants from Bronx County, New York, who were 70 years or older without dementia at enrollment and at least one annual follow-up was studied. Poisson regression was used to model dementia incidence as a function of age, sex, educational level, race, and birth cohort, with profile likelihood used to identify the timing of significant increases or decreases in incidence. Birth year and age. Incident dementia defined by consensus case conference based on annual, standardized neuropsychological and neurologic examination findings, using criteria from the DSM-IV. Among 1348 individuals (mean [SD] baseline age, 78.5 [5.4] years; 830 [61.6%] female; 915 [67.9%] non-Hispanic white), 150 incident dementia cases developed during 5932 person-years (mean [SD] follow-up, 4.4 [3.4] years). Dementia incidence decreased in successive birth cohorts. Incidence per 100 person-years was 5.09 in birth cohorts before 1920, 3.11 in the 1920 through 1924 birth cohorts, 1.73 in the 1925 through 1929 birth cohorts, and 0.23 in cohorts born after 1929. Change point analyses identified a significant decrease in dementia incidence among those born after July 1929 (95% CI, June 1929 to January 1930). The relative rate for birth cohorts before July 1929 vs after was 0.13 (95% CI, 0.04-0.41). Prevalence of stroke and myocardial infarction decreased across successive birth cohorts, whereas diabetes prevalence increased. Adjustment for these cardiovascular comorbidities did not explain the decreased dementia incidence rates for more recent birth cohorts. Analyses confirm decreasing dementia incidence in this population-based sample. Whether decreasing incidence will contribute to reduced burden of dementia given the aging of the population is not known.

Cocaine, MDMA and methamphetamine residues in wastewater: Consumption trends (2009-2015) in South East Queensland, Australia.

PubMed

Lai, Foon Yin; O'Brien, Jake W; Thai, Phong K; Hall, Wayne; Chan, Gary; Bruno, Raimondo; Ort, Christoph; Prichard, Jeremy; Carter, Steve; Anuj, Shalona; Kirkbride, K Paul; Gartner, Coral; Humphries, Melissa; Mueller, Jochen F

2016-10-15

Wastewater analysis, or wastewater-based epidemiology, has become a common tool to monitor trends of illicit drug consumption around the world. In this study, we examined trends in cocaine, 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) and methamphetamine consumption by measuring their residues in wastewater from two wastewater treatment plants in Australia (specifically, an urban and a rural catchment, both in South East Queensland) between 2009 and 2015. With direct injection of the samples, target analytes were identified and quantified using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Cocaine and MDMA residues and metabolites were mainly quantifiable in the urban catchment while methamphetamine residues were consistently detected in both urban and rural catchments. There was no consistent trend in the population normalised mass loads observed for cocaine and MDMA at the urban site between 2009 and 2015. In contrast, there was a five-fold increase in methamphetamine consumption over this period in this catchment. For methamphetamine consumption, the rural area showed a very similar trend as the urban catchment starting at a lower baseline. The observed increase in per capita loads of methamphetamine via wastewater analysis over the past six years in South East Queensland provides objective evidence for increased methamphetamine consumption in the Australian population while the use of other illicit stimulants remained relatively stable. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

HIV Research with Men who Have Sex with Men (MSM): Advantages and Challenges of Different Methods for Most Appropriately Targeting a Key Population

PubMed Central

Gama, Ana; Martins, Maria O.; Dias, Sónia

2017-01-01

The difficulty in accessing hard-to-reach populations as men who have sex with men presents a dilemma for HIV surveillance as their omission from surveillance systems leaves significant gaps in our understanding of HIV/AIDS epidemics. Several methods for recruiting difficult-to-access populations and collecting data on trends of HIV prevalence and behavioural factors for surveillance and research purposes have emerged. This paper aims to critically review different sampling approaches, from chain-referral and venue-based to respondent-driven, time-location and internet sampling methods, focusing on its main advantages and challenges for conducting HIV research among key populations, such as men who have sex with men. The benefits of using these approaches to recruit participants must be weighed against privacy concerns inherent in any social situation or health condition. Nevertheless, the methods discussed in this paper represent some of the best efforts to effectively reach most-at-risk subgroups of men who have sex with men, contributing to obtain unbiased trends of HIV prevalence and HIV-related risk behaviours among this population group. PMID:29546214

Cause-specific sickness absence trends by occupational class and industrial sector in the context of recent labour market changes: a Finnish panel data study.

PubMed

Leinonen, Taina; Viikari-Juntura, Eira; Husgafvel-Pursiainen, Kirsti; Solovieva, Svetlana

2018-04-07

We aimed to provide previously unestablished information on population-based differences in cause-specific sickness absence trends between occupational classes and further between four large industrial sectors within the different occupational classes while controlling for other socioeconomic factors and employment patterns. We focused on the period 2005-2013, during which the labour market underwent large economic and structural changes in many countries. Register-based panel data study. Large representative datasets on Finnish wage earners aged 25-59 years. Annual risk of sickness absence (>10 working days) based on repeated logistic regression. Between 2005 and 2013, the proportion of employees with sickness absence decreased. Occupational class differences in sickness absence trends varied by disease group. Overall, the decrease in absences was smallest among lower non-manual employees. Sickness absence levels were highest in the health and social work sector and in the manufacturing sector within the non-manual and manual classes, respectively. Absences due to musculoskeletal diseases decreased temporarily during the peak of the economic recession in 2009, particularly in the manufacturing sector within the manual class. The decrease in absences due to musculoskeletal diseases was smallest in the trade sector within the lower occupational classes. Overall, education, income and employment patterns partly explained the differences in the absence levels, but not in the trends. We found a complex interplay between the associations of occupational class and industrial sector with sickness absence trends. During the economic recession, absences due to musculoskeletal diseases decreased temporarily in a segment of wage earners who were known to have been hit hard by the recession. However, the trend differences were not explained by the measured structural changes in the characteristics of the study population. Both occupational class and industrial sector should be taken into account when tackling problems of work disability. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Hydrologic and Undernourisment Trends In Food Insecurity Hotspots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Funk, C. C.; Mishra, V.; Davenport, F.

2011-12-01

As food prices rise, per capita harvested area diminishes and competition for limited resources mounts, the number of undernourished people has risen to more than a billion people. In this study, we target 80 potentially food insecure countries, examining hydrologic and undernourishment trends. For each country, primary cultivation areas are identified, and hydrologic variables extracted from simulations based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity model driven with the Princeton University climate data. Trends in runoff, soil moisture, precipitation, evapotranspiration, and temperature are evaluated. In addition to precipitation driven-aridity, the analysis also evaluates possible temperature-related shifts in sensible versus latent heat fluxes during energy-limited portions of the growing seasons. Changes in the timing and magnitude of streamflow are also investigated. The undernourishment trends are explored using the FAO percent under-nourished formulation, which determines the fraction of the population falling below a critical caloric threshold by using national food balance sheets (quantity) and a caloric distribution based on economic equality. Trends in quantity and equity, and their effects on undernourishment are evaluated, and vulnerability to price volatility quantified. Finally, a sub-set of countries facing both hydrologic declines and undernourishment increases are identified as food security hotspots.

Integration of genetic and demographic data to assess population risk in a continuously distributed species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fedy, Bradley C.; Row, Jeffery R.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.

2017-01-01

The identification and demographic assessment of biologically meaningful populations is fundamental to species’ ecology and management. Although genetic tools are used frequently to identify populations, studies often do not incorporate demographic data to understand their respective population trends. We used genetic data to define subpopulations in a continuously distributed species. We assessed demographic independence and variation in population trends across the distribution. Additionally, we identified potential barriers to gene flow among subpopulations. We sampled greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) leks from across their range (≈175,000 Km2) in Wyoming and amplified DNA at 14 microsatellite loci for 1761 samples. Subsequently, we assessed population structure in unrelated individuals (n = 872) by integrating results from multiple Bayesian clustering approaches and used the boundaries to inform our assessment of long-term population trends and lek activity over the period of 1995–2013. We identified four genetic clusters of which two northern ones showed demographic independence from the others. Trends in population size for the northwest subpopulation were statistically different from the other three genetic clusters and the northeast and southwest subpopulations demonstrated a general trend of increasing proportion of inactive leks over time. Population change from 1996 to 2012 suggested population growth in the southern subpopulations and decline, or neutral, change in the northern subpopulations. We suggest that sage-grouse subpopulations in northern Wyoming are at greater risk of extirpation than the southern subpopulations due to smaller census and effective population sizes and higher variability within subpopulations. Our research is an example of incorporating genetic and demographic data and provides guidance on the identification of subpopulations of conservation concern.

Trends of Underweight and Overweight/Obesity Among Japanese Schoolchildren From 2003 to 2012, Defined by Body Mass Index and Percentage Overweight Cutoffs.

PubMed

Shirasawa, Takako; Ochiai, Hirotaka; Nanri, Hinako; Nishimura, Rimei; Ohtsu, Tadahiro; Hoshino, Hiromi; Tajima, Naoko; Kokaze, Akatsuki

2015-01-01

We investigated the prevalence and trends of underweight and overweight/obesity in a population-based sample of Japanese schoolchildren from 2003 to 2012, defined by body mass index (BMI) and percentage overweight (POW). Subjects comprised fourth and seventh graders from the town of Ina, Japan, from 2003 to 2012. The height and weight of each subject were measured. Children were classified as underweight, normal weight, or overweight/obese using two criteria: BMI cutoff points proposed by the International Obesity Task Force and cutoffs based on POW in Japan. Data from 4367 fourth graders and 3724 seventh graders were analyzed. The prevalence of underweight and overweight as defined by POW criteria were lower than those based on BMI criteria. There was a decrease in the prevalence of overweight among fourth-grade boys and girls and seventh-grade girls according to BMI; this decrease was also observed when POW criteria were used for the definition of overweight. The prevalence and trends of both underweight and overweight as defined by POW were underestimated among Japanese schoolchildren compared to those determined using BMI. The results of this study also suggest that trends in underweight and overweight/obesity using POW criteria are similar to those based on BMI criteria among schoolchildren in Japan.

Are more North American species decreasing than increasing?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Droege, S.; Sauer, J.R.; Hagemeijer, E.J.M.; Verstrael, T.J.

1994-01-01

Population trends for North American species are calculated for 1966-'91 and 1982-'91 using Nonh American Breeding Bird Survey data. Species are grouped into 3 systems of guild classifications representing migration status, breeding habitat and nesting substrate. Trends for these groups are summarized by time period, bioregion and physiographic region. At the continental level, declines approximately equalled increases. There are slightly more declines during the last 10 years. Prairie populations declined more than expected, while western populations increased. Scrub and grassland nesting species declined significantly in several bioregions while woodland species increased. Most guilds did not depart significantly from a ratio of 50:50 increases to decreases or have opposing trends in different bioregions. Guild group changes are usually clustered geographically. Guild and other analyses that search for patterns among population trend estimates offer an excellent means of identifying critical conservation issues.

The Trend-in-trend Research Design for Causal Inference.

PubMed

Ji, Xinyao; Small, Dylan S; Leonard, Charles E; Hennessy, Sean

2017-07-01

Cohort studies can be biased by unmeasured confounding. We propose a hybrid ecologic-epidemiologic design called the trend-in-trend design, which requires a strong time trend in exposure, but is unbiased unless there are unmeasured factors affecting outcome for which there are time trends in prevalence that are correlated with time trends in exposure across strata with different exposure trends. Thus, the conditions under which the trend-in-trend study is biased are a subset of those under which a cohort study is biased. The trend-in-trend design first divides the study population into strata based on the cumulative probability of exposure given covariates, which effectively stratifies on time trend in exposure, provided there is a trend. Next, a covariates-free maximum likelihood model estimates the odds ratio (OR) using data on exposure prevalence and outcome frequency within cumulative probability of exposure strata, across multiple periods. In simulations, the trend-in-trend design produced ORs with negligible bias in the presence of unmeasured confounding. In empiric applications, trend-in-trend reproduced the known positive association between rofecoxib and myocardial infarction (observed OR: 1.2, 95% confidence interval: 1.1, 1.4), and known null associations between rofecoxib and severe hypoglycemia (OR = 1.1 [0.92, 1.3]) and nonvertebral fracture (OR = 0.84 [0.64, 1.1]). The trend-in-trend method may be useful in settings where there is a strong time trend in exposure, such as a newly approved drug or other medical intervention. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B178.

Population trends in Vermivora warblers are linked to strong migratory connectivity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kramer, Gunnar R.; Andersen, David; Buehler, David A.; Wood, Petra B.; Peterson, Sean M.; Lehman, Justin A.; Aldinger, Kyle R.; Bulluck, Lesley P.; Harding, Sergio R.; Jones, John A.; Loegering, John P.; Smalling, Curtis G.; Vallender, Rachel; Streby, Henry M.

2018-01-01

Migratory species can experience limiting factors at different locations and during different periods of their annual cycle. In migratory birds, these factors may even occur in different hemispheres. Therefore, identifying the distribution of populations throughout their annual cycle (i.e., migratory connectivity) can reveal the complex ecological and evolutionary relationships that link species and ecosystems across the globe and illuminate where and how limiting factors influence population trends. A growing body of literature continues to identify species that exhibit weak connectivity wherein individuals from distinct breeding areas co-occur during the nonbreeding period. A detailed account of a broadly distributed species exhibiting strong migratory connectivity in which nonbreeding isolation of populations is associated with differential population trends remains undescribed. Here, we present a range-wide assessment of the nonbreeding distribution and migratory connectivity of two broadly dispersed Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbirds. We used geolocators to track the movements of 70 Vermivora warblers from sites spanning their breeding distribution in eastern North America and identified links between breeding populations and nonbreeding areas. Unlike blue-winged warblers (Vermivora cyanoptera), breeding populations of golden-winged warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) exhibited strong migratory connectivity, which was associated with historical trends in breeding populations: stable for populations that winter in Central America and declining for those that winter in northern South America.

Democratization of Higher Education: Issues and Trends.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Spaulding, Seth; Kargodorian, Arka

The economic, social, political, and pedagogical issues that surround the notion of democratization of higher education are considered, based on various approaches being undertaken around the world to open up higher education to new population groups. Conservative, liberal, and radical interpretations of democratization and the role of education…

Current and Emerging Forces Impacting Special Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yates, James R.

Using the methodology of force field analysis, the paper develops possible futures for special education based on current trends. Demographic forces impacting special education include age changes, ethnicity changes, the needs of emerging language minorities, specific change in the youth population, environmental factors and the incidence of…

USING GIS TO GENERATE SPATIALLY-BALANCED RANDOM SURVEY DESIGNS FOR NATURAL RESOURCE APPLICATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

Sampling of a population is frequently required to understand trends and patterns in natural resource management because financial and time constraints preclude a complete census. A rigorous probability-based survey design specifies where to sample so that inferences from the sam...

Strategic Issues: Priorities for the Future.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alamo Community Coll. District, San Antonio, TX.

Strategic priorities for the Alamo Community College District (ACCD) are identified based on conclusions drawn by the ACCD Community Advisory Council from studies of: (1) Bexar County population characteristics and trends; (2) community economic and social priorities; (3) college enrollment potential; (4) needs and characteristics of the ACCD's…

Summary Report for the Workshop on Integrating Climate Change Adaption into Air Quality Decision Making

EPA Science Inventory

Over the past few decades, air quality planners have forecasted future air pollution levels based on information about changing emissions from stationary and mobile sources, population trends, transportation demand, natural sources of emissions, and other pressures on air quality...

South Carolina Kids Count, 2001.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holmes, A. Baron

This Kids Count report examines statewide trends in the well-being of South Carolina's children. The statistical portrait is based on 42 indicators in the areas of demographics, family, economic status, health, readiness and early school performance, scholastic achievement, and adolescent risk behaviors. The indicators are: (1) population; (2)…

South Carolina Kids Count, 2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Holmes, A. Baron

This Kids Count report examines statewide trends in the well-being of South Carolina's children. The statistical portrait is based on 41 indicators in the areas of demographics, family, economic status, health, readiness and early school performance, scholastic achievement, and adolescent risk behaviors. The indicators are: (1) population; (2)…

Trends in cigarette smoking among refinery and petrochemical plant employees with a discussion of the potential impact on lung cancer.

PubMed

Tsai, S P; Wendt, J K; Hunter, R B

2001-09-01

To examine trends in cigarette smoking prevalence and intensity among petroleum industry employees over a 22-year period, from 1976 to 1997, and to evaluate the hypothesis that the (about 20%) lower lung cancer mortality, when compared with the general population, among these workers is due to lower average cigarette consumption. Self-reported smoking prevalence and intensity (number of cigarettes smoked per day) data were available from the Shell Health Surveillance System for approximately 5,400 employees in the 1970s, 11,000 in the 1980s, and 8,300 in the 1990s. Data were analyzed by gender, time period, and work status (production vs. staff). During the 22-year study period, smoking prevalence dropped significantly in this working population. When compared with the general US population, smoking prevalence trends were very similar. For the entire employee population, smoking prevalence was highest for women working in production (hourly) jobs. While smoking prevalence was higher among production employees than among staff employees, daily cigarette consumption was slightly lower. Cigarette consumption among Shell employees was similar to that in the US in the 1970s, but lower in the 1980s and 1990s. By applying smoking consumption data from the 1970s, the ratio of weighted lung cancer relative risks for Shell employees and the US general population was 0.98. In other words, the lung cancer mortality rate of refinery and petrochemical employees would be adjusted upward by 2% if one were to remove the influence of smoking consumption by Shell employees. Based on our data, it is unlikely that differences in smoking prevalence and intensity between refinery/petrochemical workers and the general population could account for the lower risk of lung cancer mortality reported in the literature.

Nationwide Trend of Sepsis: A Comparison Among Octogenarians, Elderly, and Young Adults.

PubMed

Lee, Si-Huei; Hsu, Tzu-Chun; Lee, Meng-Tse Gabriel; Chao, Christin Chihh-Ting; Lee, Wan-Chien; Lai, Chi-Cheng; Lee, Chien-Chang

2018-06-01

We aimed to compare the sepsis incidence, mortality rates, and primary sites of infection among adult, elderly, and octogenarian patients with sepsis. Population-based cohort study. The entire health insurance claims data of Taiwan, which enrolled 99.8% of the 23 million Taiwanese population. Sepsis patients were identified by International Classification of Diseases, 9th Edition, Clinical Modification codes for both infection and organ dysfunction from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2012. Patients were categorized into three age groups: 1) adults (18-64 yr); 2) elderly (65-84 yr); and 3) oldest old (≥ 85 yr). The 30-day all-cause mortality was verified by a linked national death certificate database. None. From 2002 to 2012, we identified 1,259,578 patients with sepsis, of which 417,328 (33.1%) were adults, 652,618 (51.8%) were elderly, and 189,632 (15.1%) were oldest old. We determined that the incidence of sepsis in the oldest old was 9,414 cases per 100,000 population on 2012, which was 31-fold greater than the adult incidence (303 cases per 100,000 population) and three-fold greater than the elderly incidence (2,908 cases per 100,000 population). Despite the increasing trend in incidence, the mortality decreased by 34% for adults, 24% for elderly, and 22% for oldest old. However, systemic fungal infection was disproportionately increased in oldest old patients (1.76% annual increase) and the elderly patients (1.00% annual increase). The incidence of sepsis is disproportionately increased in elderly and oldest old patients. Despite the increasing trend in incidence, the mortality rate in geriatric patients with sepsis has decreased. However, the increased incidence of fungal infections in the geriatric population warrants further attention.

Assessing Woody Vegetation Trends in Sahelian Drylands Using MODIS Based Seasonal Metrics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brandt, Martin; Hiernaux, Pierre; Rasmussen, Kjeld; Mbow, Cheikh; Kergoat, Laurent; Tagesson, Torbern; Ibrahim, Yahaya Z.; Wele, Abdoulaye; Tucker, Compton J.; Fensholt, Rasmus

2016-01-01

Woody plants play a major role for the resilience of drylands and in peoples' livelihoods. However, due to their scattered distribution, quantifying and monitoring woody cover over space and time is challenging. We develop a phenology driven model and train/validate MODIS (MCD43A4, 500m) derived metrics with 178 ground observations from Niger, Senegal and Mali to estimate woody cover trends from 2000 to 2014 over the entire Sahel. The annual woody cover estimation at 500 m scale is fairly accurate with an RMSE of 4.3 (woody cover %) and r(exp 2) = 0.74. Over the 15 year period we observed an average increase of 1.7 (+/- 5.0) woody cover (%) with large spatial differences: No clear change can be observed in densely populated areas (0.2 +/- 4.2), whereas a positive change is seen in sparsely populated areas (2.1 +/- 5.2). Woody cover is generally stable in cropland areas (0.9 +/- 4.6), reflecting the protective management of parkland trees by the farmers. Positive changes are observed in savannas (2.5 +/- 5.4) and woodland areas (3.9 +/- 7.3). The major pattern of woody cover change reveals strong increases in the sparsely populated Sahel zones of eastern Senegal, western Mali and central Chad, but a decreasing trend is observed in the densely populated western parts of Senegal, northern Nigeria, Sudan and southwestern Niger. This decrease is often local and limited to woodlands, being an indication of ongoing expansion of cultivated areas and selective logging.We show that an overall positive trend is found in areas of low anthropogenic pressure demonstrating the potential of these ecosystems to provide services such as carbon storage, if not over-utilized. Taken together, our results provide an unprecedented synthesis of woody cover dynamics in theSahel, and point to land use and human population density as important drivers, however only partially and locally offsetting a general post-drought increase.

The contribution of poor and rural populations to national trends in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health coverage: analyses of cross-sectional surveys from 64 countries.

PubMed

Victora, Cesar G; Barros, Aluisio J D; França, Giovanny V A; da Silva, Inácio C M; Carvajal-Velez, Liliana; Amouzou, Agbessi

2017-04-01

Coverage levels for essential interventions aimed at reducing deaths of mothers and children are increasing steadily in most low-income and middle-income countries. We assessed how much poor and rural populations in these countries are benefiting from national-level progress. We analysed trends in a composite coverage indicator (CCI) based on eight reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health interventions in 209 national surveys in 64 countries, from Jan 1, 1994, to Dec 31, 2014. Trends by wealth quintile and urban or rural residence were fitted with multilevel modelling. We used an approach akin to the calculation of population attributable risk to quantify the contribution of poor and rural populations to national trends. From 1994 to 2014, the CCI increased by 0·82 percent points a year across all countries; households in the two poorest quintiles had an increase of 0·99 percent points a year, which was faster than that for the three wealthiest quintiles (0·68 percent points). Gains among poor populations were faster in lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries than in low-income countries. Globally, national level increases in CCI were 17·5% faster than they would have been without the contribution of the two poorest quintiles. Coverage increased more rapidly annually in rural (0·93 percent points) than urban (0·52 percent points) areas. National coverage gains were accelerated by important increases among poor and rural mothers and children. Despite progress, important inequalities persist, and need to be addressed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. UNICEF, Wellcome Trust. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY license. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

AIDS in adults 50 years of age and over: characteristics, trends and spatial distribution of the risk1

PubMed Central

Nogueira, Jordana de Almeida; Silva, Antônia Oliveira; de Sá, Laísa Ribeiro; de Almeida, Sandra Aparecida; Monroe, Aline Aparecida; Villa, Tereza Cristina Scatena

2014-01-01

Objective to analyze the sociodemographic characteristics, epidemic trend and spatial distribution of the risk of AIDS in adults 50 years of age and over. Method population-based, ecological study, that used secondary data from the Notifiable Disease Information System (Sinan/AIDS) of Paraíba state from the period January 2000 to December 2010. Results during the study period, 307 cases of AIDS were reported among people 50 years of age or over. There was a predominance of males (205/66, 8%), mixed race, and low education levels. The municipalities with populations above 100 thousand inhabitants reported 58.5% of the cases. There was a progressive increase in cases among women; an increasing trend in the incidence (positive linear correlation); and an advance in the geographical spread of the disease, with expansion to the coastal region and to the interior of the state, reaching municipalities with populations below 30 thousand inhabitants. In some locations the risk of disease was 100 times greater than the relative risk for the state. Conclusion aging, with the feminization and interiorization of the epidemic in adults 50 years of age and over, confirms the need for the induction of affirmative policies targeted toward this age group. PMID:25029044

Height of South Asian children in the Netherlands aged 0-20 years: secular trends and comparisons with current Asian Indian, Dutch and WHO references.

PubMed

de Wilde, Jeroen A; van Dommelen, Paula; van Buuren, Stef; Middelkoop, Barend J C

2015-01-01

People from Asian populations are generally shorter than other ethnic groups. It is unknown if current universal height references are suitable for affluent South Asian children in the Netherlands. To develop height-for-age charts for contemporary South Asian children aged 0-20 years living in the Netherlands, to evaluate secular trends, and to compare the charts with current Asian Indian, Dutch and WHO references. A population-based study measured 3315 South Asian children aged 0-20 years between 2007-2010. Among this cohort, 6876 measurements were taken. Another 7388 measurements were taken of a historical cohort of 1078 children born between 1974-1976 (aged 0-18 years). An upward trend in height was observed for South Asian children living in the Netherlands between 1992-2010. The height-for-age charts of the South Asian historical cohort were similar to current Asian Indian charts. South Asian children in the Netherlands were shorter than their Dutch contemporaries at every age; and these differences increased further during adolescence. Compared to the WHO height-for-age references, there were considerable discrepancies in height, with curves intersecting twice. The discrepancies between the South Asian and Dutch and WHO height-for-age references indicate differences in growth patterns between the source populations.

Rapidly rising incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes in Chinese population: epidemiology in Shanghai during 1997-2011.

PubMed

Zhao, Zhuhui; Sun, Chengjun; Wang, Chunfang; Li, Pin; Wang, Wei; Ye, Jun; Gu, Xuefan; Wang, Xiaodong; Shen, Shuixian; Zhi, Dijing; Lu, Zhong; Ye, Rong; Cheng, Ruoqian; Xi, Li; Li, Xiaojing; Zheng, Zhangqian; Zhang, Miaoying; Luo, Feihong

2014-12-01

The aim of this study was to investigate incidence trend of childhood type 1 diabetes in Shanghai, a megalopolis in east China. We established a population-based retrospective registry for the disease in the city's registered population during 1997-2011 and collected 622 incident type 1 diabetes in children aged 0-14 years. Standardized incidence rates and 95 % CI were estimated by applying the capture-recapture method and assuming Poisson distribution. Incidence trend was analyzed using the Poisson regression model. The mean annual incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes was 3.1 per 100,000 person-years. We did not observe significant difference in incidence between boys and girls. The incidence is unstable and had a mean annual increase 14.2 % per year during the studied period. A faster annual increase was observed in boys, warmer seasons, and in the outer regions of the city. If present trends continue, the number of new type 1 diabetes cases will double from 2016 to 2020, and prevalent cases will sextuple by 2025. Our results showed the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes was rising rapidly in Shanghai. More studies are needed to analyze incidence changes in other regions of China for appropriate allocation of healthcare resources.

Trends in Lung Cancer Incidence in a Healthcare Area.

PubMed

Molina, Antonio J; García-Martínez, Lidia; Zapata-Alvarado, Julio; Alonso-Orcajo, Nieves; Fernández-Villa, Tania; Martín, Vicente

2015-11-01

The aim of this study was to identify trends in the incidence of lung cancer in the Leon Healthcare Area. All cases of cancer among residents of the Leon healthcare catchment area listed in the hospital-based tumor registry of the Centro Asistencial Universitario de Leon (CAULE) between 1996 and 2010 were included. Gross incidence rates over 3-year intervals were calculated and adjusted for the worldwide and European populations. A total of 2,491 cases were included. In men, incidence adjusted for the European population rose from 40.1 new cases per 100,000 population (1996-1998) to 61.8 (2005-2007), and then fell to 54.6 (2008-2010). In women, incidence tripled from 3.0 (1996-1998) to 9.2 new cases per 100,000 (2008-2010). Although lung cancer is an avoidable disease, it is a serious problem in the Leon Healthcare Area. Of particular concern is the rising incidence among women. Copyright © 2015 SEPAR. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Demographic Ageing of the South African Population: Past (1945-1985) and Expected Trends (1985-2035). Report S-190.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hofmeyr, B. E.; Mostert, W. P.

This report presents demographic data for four racial populations in South Africa (Blacks, Whites, Coloureds, and Asians) and examines trends in the aging of each of these populations. The age structure of a population is determined most directly by fertility and mortality. The findings of this report support a general theory to the effect that…

Adult brain cancer in the U.S. black population: a Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) analysis of incidence, survival, and trends.

PubMed

Gabriel, Abigail; Batey, Jason; Capogreco, Joseph; Kimball, David; Walters, Andy; Tubbs, R Shane; Loukas, Marios

2014-08-25

Despite much epidemiological research on brain cancer in the United States, the etiology for the various subtypes remains elusive. The black population in the United States currently experiences lower incidence but higher survival rates when compared to other races. Thus, the aim of this study is to analyze the trends in incidence and survival for the 6 most common primary brain tumors in the black population of the United States. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was utilized in this study to analyze the incidence and survival rates for the 6 most common brain tumor subtypes. Joinpoint 3.5.2 software was used to analyze trends in the incidence of diagnosis from 1973 to 2008. A Kaplan-Meier curve was generated to analyze mean time to death and survival at 60 months. Joinpoint analysis revealed that per year the incidence of brain cancer in the U.S. black population increased by 0.11 between 1973 and 1989. After this period, a moderate decrease by 0.06 per annum was observed from 1989 to 2008. Lymphoma was the most common primary tumor subtype for black individuals ages 20-34, and glioblastoma was identified as the most common tumor subtype for black individuals in the age groups of 35-49, 50-64, 65-79, and 80+. This population-based retrospective study of brain cancer in black adults in the United States revealed significant sex and age differences in the incidence of the 6 most common brain tumor subtypes from 1973 to 2008.

Latino Population Growth, Characteristics, and Settlement Trends: Implications for Social Work Education in a Dynamic Political Climate

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vidal de Haymes, Maria; Kilty, Keith M.

2007-01-01

This paper identifies a number of significant contemporary trends in the Latino population, including the striking growth of the community, new points of entry and settlement for recent immigrants, the mixed-status nature of families, and the increase in the proportion of U.S. households that speak Spanish. The implications of these trends for…

Increasing trends of sleep complaints in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil.

PubMed

Santos-Silva, Rogerio; Bittencourt, Lia Rita Azeredo; Pires, Maria Laura Nogueira; de Mello, Marco Tulio; Taddei, Jose Augusto; Benedito-Silva, Ana Amelia; Pompeia, Celine; Tufik, Sergio

2010-06-01

The aim of this study was to compare the prevalence of sleep habits and complaints and to estimate the secular trends through three population-based surveys carried out in 1987, 1995, and 2007 in the general adult population of the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. Surveys were performed using the same three-stage cluster-sampling technique in three consecutive decades to obtain representative samples of the inhabitants of Sao Paulo with respect to gender, age (20-80 years), and socio-economic status. Sample sizes were 1000 volunteers in 1987 and 1995 surveys and 1101 in a 2007 survey. In each survey, the UNIFESP Sleep Questionnaire was administered face-to-face in each household selected. For 1987, 1995, and 2007, respectively, difficulty initiating sleep (weighted frequency %; 95% CI) [(13.9; 11.9-16.2), (19.15; 16.8-21.6), and (25.0; 22.5-27.8)], difficulty maintaining sleep [(15.8; 13.7-18.2), (27.6; 24.9-30.4), and (36.5; 33.5-39.5)], and early morning awakening [(10.6; 8.8-12.7), (14.2; 12.2-16.5), and (26.7; 24-29.6)] increased in the general population over time, mostly in women. Habitual snoring was the most commonly reported complaint across decades and was more prevalent in men. There was no statistically significant difference in snoring complaints between 1987 (21.5; 19.1-24.2) and 1995 (19.0; 16.7-21.6), but a significant increase was noted in 2007 (41.7; 38.6-44.8). Nightmares, bruxism, leg cramps, and somnambulism complaints were significantly higher in 2007 compared to 1987 and 1995. All were more frequent in women. This is the first study comparing sleep complaints in probabilistic population-based samples from the same metropolitan area, using the same methodology across three consecutive decades. Clear trends of increasing sleep complaints were observed, which increased faster between 1995 and 2007 than from 1987 to 1995. These secular trends should be considered a relevant public health issue and support the need for development of health care and educational strategies to supply the population's increased need for information on sleep disorders and their consequences. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer, 1975-2000, featuring the uses of surveillance data for cancer prevention and control.

PubMed

Weir, Hannah K; Thun, Michael J; Hankey, Benjamin F; Ries, Lynn A G; Howe, Holly L; Wingo, Phyllis A; Jemal, Ahmedin; Ward, Elizabeth; Anderson, Robert N; Edwards, Brenda K

2003-09-03

The American Cancer Society, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the National Cancer Institute (NCI), and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries (NAACCR) collaborate annually to update cancer rates and trends in the United States. This report updates statistics on lung, female breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers and highlights the uses of selected surveillance data to assist development of state-based cancer control plans. Age-adjusted incidence rates from 1996 through 2000 are from state and metropolitan area cancer registries that met NAACCR criteria for highest quality. Death rates are based on underlying cause-of-death data. Long-term trends and rates for major racial and ethnic populations are based on NCI and CDC data. Incidence trends from 1975 through 2000 were adjusted for reporting delays. State-specific screening and risk factor survey data are from the CDC and other federal and private organizations. Cancer incidence rates for all cancer sites combined increased from the mid-1970s through 1992 and then decreased from 1992 through 1995. Observed incidence rates for all cancers combined were essentially stable from 1995 through 2000, whereas the delay-adjusted trend showed an increase that had borderline statistical significance (P =.05). Increases in the incidence rates of breast cancer in women and prostate cancer in men offset a long-term decrease in lung cancer in men. Death rates for all cancer sites combined decreased beginning in 1994 and stabilized from 1998 through 2000, resulting in part from recent revisions in cause-of-death codes. Death rates among men continued to decline throughout the 1990s, whereas trends in death rates among women were essentially unchanged from 1998 through 2000. Analysis of state data for the leading cancers revealed mixed progress in achieving national objectives for improving cancer screening, risk factor reduction, and decreases in mortality. Overall cancer incidence and death rates began to stabilize in the mid- to late 1990s. The recent increase in the delay-adjusted trend will require monitoring with additional years of data. Further reduction in the burden of cancer is possible but will require the continuation of strong federal, state, local, and private partnerships to increase dissemination of evidence-based cancer control programs to all segments of the population.

Fine-scale population dynamics in a marine fish species inferred from dynamic state-space models.

PubMed

Rogers, Lauren A; Storvik, Geir O; Knutsen, Halvor; Olsen, Esben M; Stenseth, Nils C

2017-07-01

Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub-structure and dynamics. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). Specifically, we developed dynamic, age-structured, state-space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93-year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. Cross-validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density-dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near-record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. More generally, we demonstrated how state-space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time-series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Ecological Society.

Increase of Elderly Population in the Rainstorm Hazard Areas of China.

PubMed

Liang, Pujun; Xu, Wei; Ma, Yunjia; Zhao, Xiujuan; Qin, Lianjie

2017-08-26

In light of global warming, increased extreme precipitation events have enlarged the population exposed to floods to some extent. Extreme precipitation risk assessments are of great significance in China and allow for the response to climate change and mitigation of risks to the population. China is one of the countries most influenced by climate change and has unique national population conditions. The influence of extreme precipitation depends on the degree of exposure and vulnerability of the population. Accurate assessments of the population exposed to rising rainstorm trends are crucial to mapping extreme precipitation risks. Studying the population exposed to rainstorm hazard areas (RSHA) at the microscale is extremely urgent, due to the local characteristics of extreme precipitation events and regional diversity of the population. The spatial distribution of population density was mapped based on the national population census data from China in 1990, 2000 and 2010. RSHA were also identified using precipitation data from 1975-2015 in China, and the rainstorm tendency values were mapped using GIS in this paper. The spatial characteristics of the rainstorm tendencies were then analyzed. Finally, changes in the population in the RSHA are discussed. The results show that the extreme precipitation trends are increasing in southeastern China. From 1990 to 2010, the population in RSHA increased by 110 million, at a rate of 14.6%. The elderly in the region increased by 38 million at a rate of 86.4%. Studying the size of the population exposed to rainstorm hazards at the county scale can provide scientific evidence for developing disaster prevention and mitigation strategies from the bottom up.

Trends in the location of the HIV-positive population in Australia: implications for access to healthcare services and delivery.

PubMed

Carman, Marina; Grierson, Jeffrey; Pitts, Marian; Hurley, Michael; Power, Jennifer

2010-06-01

Examining existing and potential trends in the HIV-positive population in Australia is important for current and future healthcare service development and delivery. A new analysis of existing data on this population from the HIV Futures 5 survey was based on linking a geographic breakdown of respondents based on 'area type'--capital city or inner suburban, outer suburban, regional centre and rural--with patterns of healthcare service access. In addition, the distance between the postcode of the respondent's residence and the postcode of the doctor seen for HIV-related treatment was calculated. An analysis of 'area type' by income and age was also conducted. The 'area type' analysis showed important differences in patterns of access to antiretroviral prescriptions and choice of provider for HIV-related and general healthcare. The median distance travelled to see a doctor for HIV-related treatment was higher for those living in outer suburbs than those living in regional centres. Differences in service use appear to be related to geographic accessibility of different service types. However, there may be other important social, economic and cultural factors involved. Ageing and socio-economic pressures may be influencing a move away from inner suburban areas where most HIV-specific care is located. This new analysis assists in finding the right balance between increasing the accessibility of HIV-specific services and 'mainstreaming'. Longitudinal data collection would further assist in tracking trends in geographic location, and how often and at what intervals people living with HIV utilise healthcare services.

Use of a syndromic surveillance system to describe the trend in cycling-related presentations to emergency departments in Sydney.

PubMed

Dinh, Michael M; Kastelein, Christopher; Bein, Kendall J; Green, Timothy C; Bautovich, Tanya; Ivers, Rebecca

2015-08-01

To describe population-based trends in cycling-related presentations to EDs over the past decade. A retrospective cohort of road trauma patients (motor vehicle, motor cyclist, cyclist and pedestrian) presenting to EDs in the Sydney Greater Metropolitan Area between 2004 and 2013 was obtained using the Public Health Real-time Emergency Department Surveillance System. The outcomes of interest were the cycling-related ED presentation rate per 1000 population, as well as the proportion of cycling-related presentations that died in ED or were admitted to a critical care ward. Trends in ED presentation rates based on presentation counts and Sydney population data were plotted and described. There were 68,438 cycling-related presentations identified, representing 30% of all road trauma patients presenting to EDs in Sydney. There was a 91% increase in cycling-related presentations for the 35 to 64-year-old age group and a 123% increase in cycling-related presentations in the 65-year-old and over age group. All other age groups were associated with a stable or decrease in cycling-related ED presentation rates. The proportion of presentations requiring critical care ward admission or death in ED has decreased by 20%. Using an ED syndromic surveillance system, cycling-related ED presentation rates in Sydney Australia have increased in those aged 35 years and over the past 10 years, with a relative decrease in the proportion of deaths in ED or those requiring critical care admission. © 2015 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

Trends in nurse practitioners' prescribing to older adults in Ontario, 2000-2010: a retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Tranmer, Joan E.; Colley, Lindsey; Edge, Dana S.; Sears, Kim; VanDenKerkhof, Elizabeth; Levesque, Linda

2015-01-01

Background: Nurse prescribing is a practice that has evolved and will continue to evolve in response to emerging trends, particularly in primary care. The goal of this study was to describe the trends and patterns in medication prescription to adults 65 years of age or older in Ontario by nurse practitioners over a 10-year period. Methods: We conducted a population-based descriptive retrospective cohort study. All nurse practitioners registered in the Corporate Provider Database between Jan. 1, 2000, and Dec. 31, 2010, were identified. We identified actively prescribing nurse practitioners through linkage of dispensed medications to people aged 65 years or older from the Ontario Drug Benefit database. For comparison, all prescription medications dispensed by family physicians to a similar group were identified. Geographic location was determined based on site of nurse practitioner practice. Results: The number and proportion of actively prescribing nurse practitioners prescribing to older adults increased during the study period, from 44/340 (12.9%) to 888/1423 (62.4%). The number and proportion of medications dispensed for chronic conditions by nurse practitioners increased: in 2010, 9 of the 10 top medications dispensed were for chronic conditions. There was substantial variation in the proportion of nurse practitioners dispensing medication to older adults across provincial Local Health Integration Networks. Interpretation: Prescribing by nurse practitioners to older adults, particularly of medications related to chronic conditions, increased between 2000 and 2010. The integration of nurse practitioners into primary care has not been consistent across the province and has not occurred in relation to population changes and perhaps population needs. PMID:26457291

Trends in spawning populations of Pacific anadromous salmonids

USGS Publications Warehouse

Konkel, G.W.; McIntyre, J.D.

1987-01-01

Annual escapement records for 1968-1984 for five species of Pacific salmon-chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha), coho (O. kisutch), sockeye (O. nerka), pink (O. gorbuscha), and chum (O. keta)—and steelhead (Salmo gairdneri) were obtained from published and unpublished sources and organized in a computer database. More than 25,500 escapement records were obtained for more than 1,100 locations throughout Alaska, Washington, Idaho, Oregon, and California. Escapement trends for naturally reproducing populations for which data were available for at least 7 years from 1968 to 1984 and at least 4 years from 1975 to 1984 were analyzed by linear regression. Significant trends were observed in about 30% of the 886 populations examined. Trends were summarized by species for three geographic regions in Alaska and four in the Pacific Northwest (including California). For chinook, sockeye, and pink salmon, trends were predominantly increasing in the Alaska regions and either lacking or predominantly decreasing in most of the Pacific Northwest regions; for coho and chum salmon, trends were predominantly decreasing in one or more Alaska regions as well as in most of the Pacific Northwest regions. For steelhead, too few populations were examined to enable us to characterize trends throughout their range. Among the 657 salmonid populations excluded from the trend analysis because the data sets were incomplete, 13 (of which 2 were in Alaska) declined to zero during the period of analysis. For coho, sockeye, pink, and chum salmon and steelhead, major data gaps were revealed by a comparison of the geographic distribution of escapement records with the spawning distribution of the species. For chinook salmon, escapement records were more geographically representative of the spawning distribution.

Age Specific Survival Rates of Steller Sea Lions at Rookeries with Divergent Population Trends in the Russian Far East

PubMed Central

Altukhov, Alexey V.; Andrews, Russel D.; Calkins, Donald G.; Gelatt, Thomas S.; Gurarie, Eliezer D.; Loughlin, Thomas R.; Mamaev, Evgeny G.; Nikulin, Victor S.; Permyakov, Peter A.; Ryazanov, Sergey D.; Vertyankin, Vladimir V.; Burkanov, Vladimir N.

2015-01-01

After a dramatic population decline, Steller sea lions have begun to recover throughout most of their range. However, Steller sea lions in the Western Aleutians and Commander Islands are continuing to decline. Comparing survival rates between regions with different population trends may provide insights into the factors driving the dynamics, but published data on vital rates have been extremely scarce, especially in regions where the populations are still declining. Fortunately, an unprecedented dataset of marked Steller sea lions at rookeries in the Russian Far East is available, allowing us to determine age and sex specific survival in sea lions up to 22 years old. We focused on survival rates in three areas in the Russian range with differing population trends: the Commander Islands (Medny Island rookery), Eastern Kamchatka (Kozlov Cape rookery) and the Kuril Islands (four rookeries). Survival rates differed between these three regions, though not necessarily as predicted by population trends. Pup survival was higher where the populations were declining (Medny Island) or not recovering (Kozlov Cape) than in all Kuril Island rookeries. The lowest adult (> 3 years old) female survival was found on Medny Island and this may be responsible for the continued population decline there. However, the highest adult survival was found at Kozlov Cape, not in the Kuril Islands where the population is increasing, so we suggest that differences in birth rates might be an important driver of these divergent population trends. High pup survival on the Commander Islands and Kamchatka Coast may be a consequence of less frequent (e.g. biennial) reproduction there, which may permit females that skip birth years to invest more in their offspring, leading to higher pup survival, but this hypothesis awaits measurement of birth rates in these areas. PMID:26016772

Leveraging Real-World Evidence in Disease-Management Decision-Making with a Total Cost of Care Estimator.

PubMed

Nguyen, Thanh-Nghia; Trocio, Jeffrey; Kowal, Stacey; Ferrufino, Cheryl P; Munakata, Julie; South, Dell

2016-12-01

Health management is becoming increasingly complex, given a range of care options and the need to balance costs and quality. The ability to measure and understand drivers of costs is critical for healthcare organizations to effectively manage their patient populations. Healthcare decision makers can leverage real-world evidence to explore the value of disease-management interventions in shifting total cost trends. To develop a real-world, evidence-based estimator that examines the impact of disease-management interventions on the total cost of care (TCoC) for a patient population with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Data were collected from a patient-level real-world evidence data set that uses the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database. Pharmacy and medical claims for patients meeting the inclusion or exclusion criteria were combined in longitudinal cohorts with a 180-day preindex and 360-day follow-up period. Descriptive statistics, such as mean and median patient costs and event rates, were derived from a real-world evidence analysis and were used to populate the base-case estimates within the TCoC estimator, an exploratory economic model that was designed to estimate the potential impact of several disease-management activities on the TCoC for a patient population with NVAF. Using Microsoft Excel, the estimator is designed to compare current direct costs of medical care to projected costs by varying assumptions on the impact of disease-management activities and applying the associated changes in cost trends to the affected populations. Disease-management levers are derived from literature-based concepts affecting costs along the NVAF disease continuum. The use of the estimator supports analyses across 4 US geographic regions, age, cost types, and care settings during 1 year. All patients included in the study were continuously enrolled in their health plan (within the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database) between July 1, 2010, and June 30, 2012. Patients were included in the final analytic file and were indexed based on (1) the service date of the first claim within the selection window (December 28, 2010-July 11, 2011) with a diagnosis of NVAF, or (2) the service date of the second claim for an NVAF medication of interest during the same selection window. The model estimates the current trends in national benchmark data for a hypothetical health plan with 1 million covered lives. The annual total direct healthcare costs (allowable and patient out-of-pocket costs) of managing patients with NVAF in this hypothetical plan are estimated at $184,981,245 ($25,754 per patient, for 7183 patients). A potential 25% improvement from the base-case disease burden and disease management could translate into TCoC savings from reducing the excess costs related to hypertension (-5.3%) and supporting the use of an appropriate antithrombotic treatment that prevents ischemic stroke (-0.7%) and reduces bleeding events (-0.1%). The use of the TCoC estimator supports population health management by providing real-world evidence benchmark data on NVAF disease burden and by quantifying the potential value of disease-management activities in shifting cost trends.

Leveraging Real-World Evidence in Disease-Management Decision-Making with a Total Cost of Care Estimator

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Thanh-Nghia; Trocio, Jeffrey; Kowal, Stacey; Ferrufino, Cheryl P.; Munakata, Julie; South, Dell

2016-01-01

Background Health management is becoming increasingly complex, given a range of care options and the need to balance costs and quality. The ability to measure and understand drivers of costs is critical for healthcare organizations to effectively manage their patient populations. Healthcare decision makers can leverage real-world evidence to explore the value of disease-management interventions in shifting total cost trends. Objective To develop a real-world, evidence-based estimator that examines the impact of disease-management interventions on the total cost of care (TCoC) for a patient population with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF). Methods Data were collected from a patient-level real-world evidence data set that uses the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database. Pharmacy and medical claims for patients meeting the inclusion or exclusion criteria were combined in longitudinal cohorts with a 180-day preindex and 360-day follow-up period. Descriptive statistics, such as mean and median patient costs and event rates, were derived from a real-world evidence analysis and were used to populate the base-case estimates within the TCoC estimator, an exploratory economic model that was designed to estimate the potential impact of several disease-management activities on the TCoC for a patient population with NVAF. Using Microsoft Excel, the estimator is designed to compare current direct costs of medical care to projected costs by varying assumptions on the impact of disease-management activities and applying the associated changes in cost trends to the affected populations. Disease-management levers are derived from literature-based concepts affecting costs along the NVAF disease continuum. The use of the estimator supports analyses across 4 US geographic regions, age, cost types, and care settings during 1 year. Results All patients included in the study were continuously enrolled in their health plan (within the IMS PharMetrics Health Plan Claims Database) between July 1, 2010, and June 30, 2012. Patients were included in the final analytic file and were indexed based on (1) the service date of the first claim within the selection window (December 28, 2010-July 11, 2011) with a diagnosis of NVAF, or (2) the service date of the second claim for an NVAF medication of interest during the same selection window. The model estimates the current trends in national benchmark data for a hypothetical health plan with 1 million covered lives. The annual total direct healthcare costs (allowable and patient out-of-pocket costs) of managing patients with NVAF in this hypothetical plan are estimated at $184,981,245 ($25,754 per patient, for 7183 patients). A potential 25% improvement from the base-case disease burden and disease management could translate into TCoC savings from reducing the excess costs related to hypertension (−5.3%) and supporting the use of an appropriate antithrombotic treatment that prevents ischemic stroke (−0.7%) and reduces bleeding events (−0.1%). Conclusions The use of the TCoC estimator supports population health management by providing real-world evidence benchmark data on NVAF disease burden and by quantifying the potential value of disease-management activities in shifting cost trends. PMID:28465775

Trends in Global Gender Inequality (Forthcoming, Social Forces).

PubMed

Dorius, Shawn F; Firebaugh, Glenn

2010-07-01

This study investigates trends in gender inequality for the world as a whole. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine world trends over recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation, and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually all major domains, that the decline is occurring across diverse religious and cultural traditions, and that population growth is slowing the decline because populations are growing faster in countries where there is the greatest gender inequality.

Trends in Global Gender Inequality (Forthcoming, Social Forces)

PubMed Central

Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn

2011-01-01

This study investigates trends in gender inequality for the world as a whole. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world’s population, we examine world trends over recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation, and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually all major domains, that the decline is occurring across diverse religious and cultural traditions, and that population growth is slowing the decline because populations are growing faster in countries where there is the greatest gender inequality. PMID:21643494

Variations in sub-national road traffic fatality trends in a low-income country.

PubMed

Bhatti, Junaid A; Khoso, Ajmal Khan; Waseem, Hunniya; Khan, Uzma Rahim; Razzak, Junaid A

2013-01-01

In most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), road traffic fatality (RTF) trends are presented in aggregated form at the national level. This practice omits important information regarding RTF risk at sub-national levels. This ecological study assesses the extent of RTF variations at different sub-national levels in Pakistan, a low-income country. Based on official statistics, significant variations in three RTF indicators i.e. per population, per registered vehicles, and per crash were compared by regression analyses at two sub-national levels i.e. provincially (2000-2009) and district-wise (2004). The national RTF counts are based on data from four provinces. From 2000 to 2009, RTF per population and per registered vehicles decreased in all provinces except Balochistan. RTF per crash in Punjab decreased from 0.61 to 0.56 (beta coefficient (β) year = -0.0082, P = <0.001), whereas in Balochistan it increased from 0.40 to 0.58 (β year = 0.0708, P = <0.001) over the same period. District-level comparisons were possible only in Punjab where RTF per crash varied from 0.25 to 2.15 and correlated (β = 0.50, P = 0.003) with RTF per population. Sub-national RTF surveillance is necessary in LMICs like Pakistan in order to prioritize available resources on high-risk jurisdictions such as the Balochistan province and districts of Punjab where high RTF per population and per crash exist.

Bacterial meningitis in Finland, 1995-2014: a population-based observational study.

PubMed

Polkowska, Aleksandra; Toropainen, Maija; Ollgren, Jukka; Lyytikäinen, Outi; Nuorti, J Pekka

2017-06-06

Bacterial meningitis remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Its epidemiological characteristics, however, are changing due to new vaccines and secular trends. Conjugate vaccines against Haemophilus influenzae type b and Streptococcus pneumoniae (10-valent) were introduced in 1986 and 2010 in Finland. We assessed the disease burden and long-term trends of five common causes of bacterial meningitis in a population-based observational study. A case was defined as isolation of S. pneumoniae , Neisseria meningitidis , Streptococcus agalactiae , Listeria monocytogenes or H. influenzae from cerebrospinal fluid and reported to national, population-based laboratory surveillance system during 1995-2014. We evaluated changes in incidence rates (Poisson or negative binomial regression), case fatality proportions (χ 2 ) and age distribution of cases (Wilcoxon rank-sum). During 1995-2014, S. pneumoniae and N. meningitidis accounted for 78% of the total 1361 reported bacterial meningitis cases. H. influenzae accounted for 4% of cases (92% of isolates were non-type b). During the study period, the overall rate of bacterial meningitis per 1 00 000 person-years decreased from 1.88 cases in 1995 to 0.70 cases in 2014 (4% annual decline (95% CI 3% to 5%). This was primarily due to a 9% annual reduction in rates of N. meningitidis (95% CI 7% to 10%) and 2% decrease in S. pneumoniae (95% CI 1% to 4%). The median age of cases increased from 31 years in 1995-2004 to 43 years in 2005-2014 (p=0.0004). Overall case fatality proportion (10%) did not change from 2004 to 2009 to 2010-2014. Substantial decreases in bacterial meningitis were associated with infant conjugate vaccination against pneumococcal meningitis and secular trend in meningococcal meningitis in the absence of vaccination programme. Ongoing epidemiological surveillance is needed to identify trends, evaluate serotype distribution, assess vaccine impact and develop future vaccination strategies. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Economic Impact of a Medicaid Population Health Management Program

PubMed Central

Strothers, Harry; Miller, William Johnson; McLaren, Susan; Moore, Barbara; Sambamoorthi, Usha

2011-01-01

Abstract A population health management program was implemented to assess growth in health care expenditures for the disabled segment of Georgia's Medicaid population before and during the first year of a population health outcomes management program, and to compare those expenditures with projected costs based on various cost inflation trend assumptions. A retrospective, nonexperimental approach was used to analyze claims data from Georgia Medicaid claims files for all program-eligible persons for each relevant time period (intent-to-treat basis). These included all non-Medicare, noninstitutionalized Medicaid aged-blind-disabled adults older than 18 years of age. Comparisons of health care expenditures and utilization were made between base year (2003–2004) and performance year one (2006–2007), and of the difference between actual expenditures incurred in the performance year vs. projected expenditures based on various cost inflation assumptions. Demographic characteristics and clinical complexity of the population (as measured by the Chronic Illness and Disability Payment System risk score) actually increased from baseline to implementation. Actual expenditures were less than projected expenditures using any relevant medical inflation assumption. Actual expenditures were less than projected expenditures by $9.82 million when using a conservative US general medical inflation rate, by $43.6 million using national Medicaid cost trends, and by $106 million using Georgia Medicaid's own cost projections for the non-dually eligible disabled segment of Medicaid enrollees. Quadratic growth curve modeling also demonstrated a lower rate of increase in total expenditures. The rate of increase in expenditures was lower over the first year of program implementation compared with baseline. Weighted utilization rates were also lower in high-cost categories, such as inpatient days, despite increases in the risk profile of the population. Varying levels of cost avoidance could be inferred from differences between actual and projected expenditures using each of the health-related inflation assumptions. (Population Health Management 2011;14:215–222) PMID:21506728

Prevalence of depressive disorders in the elderly.

PubMed

Barua, Ankur; Ghosh, Mihir Kumar; Kar, Nilamadhab; Basilio, Mary Anne

2011-01-01

Community-based mental health studies have revealed that the point prevalence of depressive disorders in the elderly population of the world varies between 10% and 20%, depending on cultural situations. A retrospective study based on analysis of various study reports was conducted, to determine the median prevalence rates of depressive disorders in the elderly population of India and various other countries in the world. All the studies that constituted the sample were conducted between 1955 and 2005. Included are only community-based, cross-sectional surveys and some prospective studies that had not excluded depression at baseline. These studies were conducted on a homogenous community of the elderly population in the world, who were selected by a simple random sampling technique. After applying the inclusion and exclusion criteria on published and indexed articles, 74 original research studies that surveyed a total of 487,275 elderly individuals, in the age group of 60 years and above, residing in various parts of the world, were included for the final analysis. The median prevalence rate and its corresponding interquartile range were calculated. The chi-square test and chi-square for linear trend were applied. A P value of <.05 was considered as statistically significant. The median prevalence rate of depressive disorders in the world for the elderly population was determined to be 10.3% (interquartile range [IQR], 4.7%-16.0%). The median prevalence rate of depression among the elderly Indian population was determined to be 21.9% (IQR, 11.6%-31.1%). Although there was a significant decrease in the trend of world prevalence of geriatric depression, it was significantly higher among Indians, in recent years, than the rest of the world.

A population-based study of homicide deaths in Ontario, Canada using linked death records.

PubMed

Lachaud, James; Donnelly, Peter D; Henry, David; Kornas, Kathy; Calzavara, Andrew; Bornbaum, Catherine; Rosella, Laura

2017-07-24

Homicide - a lethal expression of violence - has garnered little attention from public health researchers and health policy makers, despite the fact that homicides are a cause of preventable and premature death. Identifying populations at risk and the upstream determinants of homicide are important for addressing inequalities that hinder population health. This population-based study investigates the public health significance of homicides in Ontario, Canada, over the period of 1999-2012. We quantified the relative burden of homicides by comparing the socioeconomic gradient in homicides with the leading causes of death, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and neoplasm, and estimated the potential years of life lost (PYLL) due to homicide. We linked vital statistics from the Office of the Registrar General Deaths register (ORG-D) with Census and administrative data for all Ontario residents. We extracted all homicide, neoplasm, and cardiovascular deaths from 1999 to 2012, using International Classification of Diseases codes. For socioeconomic status (SES), we used two dimensions of the Ontario Marginalization Index (ON-Marg): material deprivation and residential instability. Trends were summarized across deprivation indices using age-specific rates, rate ratios, and PYLL. Young males, 15-29 years old, were the main victims of homicide with a rate of 3.85 [IC 95%: 3.56; 4.13] per 100,000 population and experienced an upward trend over the study period. The socioeconomic neighbourhood gradient was substantial and higher than the gradient for both cardiovascular and neoplasms. Finally, the PYLL due to homicide were 63,512 and 24,066 years for males and females, respectively. Homicides are an important cause of death among young males, and populations living in disadvantaged neighbourhoods. Our findings raise concerns about the burden of homicides in the Canadian population and the importance of addressing social determinants to address these premature deaths.

Modeling Systematic Change in Stopover Duration Does Not Improve Bias in Trends Estimated from Migration Counts.

PubMed

Crewe, Tara L; Taylor, Philip D; Lepage, Denis

2015-01-01

The use of counts of unmarked migrating animals to monitor long term population trends assumes independence of daily counts and a constant rate of detection. However, migratory stopovers often last days or weeks, violating the assumption of count independence. Further, a systematic change in stopover duration will result in a change in the probability of detecting individuals once, but also in the probability of detecting individuals on more than one sampling occasion. We tested how variation in stopover duration influenced accuracy and precision of population trends by simulating migration count data with known constant rate of population change and by allowing daily probability of survival (an index of stopover duration) to remain constant, or to vary randomly, cyclically, or increase linearly over time by various levels. Using simulated datasets with a systematic increase in stopover duration, we also tested whether any resulting bias in population trend could be reduced by modeling the underlying source of variation in detection, or by subsampling data to every three or five days to reduce the incidence of recounting. Mean bias in population trend did not differ significantly from zero when stopover duration remained constant or varied randomly over time, but bias and the detection of false trends increased significantly with a systematic increase in stopover duration. Importantly, an increase in stopover duration over time resulted in a compounding effect on counts due to the increased probability of detection and of recounting on subsequent sampling occasions. Under this scenario, bias in population trend could not be modeled using a covariate for stopover duration alone. Rather, to improve inference drawn about long term population change using counts of unmarked migrants, analyses must include a covariate for stopover duration, as well as incorporate sampling modifications (e.g., subsampling) to reduce the probability that individuals will be detected on more than one occasion.

Spatio-temporal mapping of Madagascar's Malaria Indicator Survey results to assess Plasmodium falciparum endemicity trends between 2011 and 2016.

PubMed

Kang, Su Yun; Battle, Katherine E; Gibson, Harry S; Ratsimbasoa, Arsène; Randrianarivelojosia, Milijaona; Ramboarina, Stéphanie; Zimmerman, Peter A; Weiss, Daniel J; Cameron, Ewan; Gething, Peter W; Howes, Rosalind E

2018-05-23

Reliable measures of disease burden over time are necessary to evaluate the impact of interventions and assess sub-national trends in the distribution of infection. Three Malaria Indicator Surveys (MISs) have been conducted in Madagascar since 2011. They provide a valuable resource to assess changes in burden that is complementary to the country's routine case reporting system. A Bayesian geostatistical spatio-temporal model was developed in an integrated nested Laplace approximation framework to map the prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum malaria infection among children from 6 to 59 months in age across Madagascar for 2011, 2013 and 2016 based on the MIS datasets. The model was informed by a suite of environmental and socio-demographic covariates known to influence infection prevalence. Spatio-temporal trends were quantified across the country. Despite a relatively small decrease between 2013 and 2016, the prevalence of malaria infection has increased substantially in all areas of Madagascar since 2011. In 2011, almost half (42.3%) of the country's population lived in areas of very low malaria risk (<1% parasite prevalence), but by 2016, this had dropped to only 26.7% of the population. Meanwhile, the population in high transmission areas (prevalence >20%) increased from only 2.2% in 2011 to 9.2% in 2016. A comparison of the model-based estimates with the raw MIS results indicates there was an underestimation of the situation in 2016, since the raw figures likely associated with survey timings were delayed until after the peak transmission season. Malaria remains an important health problem in Madagascar. The monthly and annual prevalence maps developed here provide a way to evaluate the magnitude of change over time, taking into account variability in survey input data. These methods can contribute to monitoring sub-national trends of malaria prevalence in Madagascar as the country aims for geographically progressive elimination.

75 FR 20547 - Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; Initiation of Status Review for Sacramento...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-20

... on: (1)The species' biology, range, and population trends, including: (a) Habitat requirements for... distribution patterns; (d) Historical and current population levels, and current and projected trends; and (e...

Design of a Monitoring Program for Northern Spotted Owls

Treesearch

Jonathan Bart; Douglas S. Robson

1995-01-01

This paper discusses methods for estimating population trends of Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina) based on point counts. Although the monitoring program will have five distinct components, attention here is restricted to one of these: roadside surveys of territorial birds. Analyses of Breeding Bird Survey data and computer...

Rhode Island KIDS COUNT Factbook, 2002.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhode Island KIDS COUNT, Providence.

This KIDS COUNT databook is the seventh annual profile examining statewide trends in the well-being of Rhode Island's children. The statistical portrait is based on 49 indicators (6 new indicators in this databook) in 5 areas: (1) family and community (including child population, children in single parent families, and racial and ethnic…

Rhode Island Kids Count Factbook, 2001.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhode Island KIDS COUNT, Providence.

This Kids Count databook is the seventh annual profile examining statewide trends in the well-being of Rhode Island's children. The statistical portrait is based on 43 indicators in 5 areas: (1) family and community (including child population and children in single-parent families); (2) economic well-being (including median household income,…

South Dakota Kids Count Factbook, 2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cochran, Carole

This Kids Count fact book examines statewide trends in well-being for South Dakota's children. The statistical portrait is based on 26 indicators in the areas of demographics, health, education, economic status, and safety. The indicators are: (1) population; (2) family profile; (3) poverty thresholds; (4) infant mortality; (5) low birth weight…

South Dakota KIDS COUNT Factbook, 1999.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cochran, Carole, Ed.

This Kids Count fact book examines statewide trends in well-being for South Dakota's children. The statistical portrait is based on 25 indicators in the areas of demographics, health, education, economic status, and safety. The indicators are: (1) population; (2) family profile; (3) poverty thresholds; (4) infant mortality rate; (5) low birth…

When Investment in Basic Skills Gives Negative Returns

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Billington, Mary Genevieve; Nissinen, Kari; Gabrielsen, Egil

2017-01-01

In recent years, the Norwegian government has invested heavily in improving basic skills in the adult population. Initiatives have included legislation, the introduction of work-based adult education programs, and reforms in schooling. In light of this investment, we explore trends in adult literacy and numeracy, by comparing data from two…

South Carolina Kids Count Report, 2003.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

South Carolina Kids Count, Columbia.

This Kids Count report examines statewide trends in the well-being of South Carolina's children. The statistical portrait is based on 44 indicators in the areas of demographics, family, economic status, health, readiness and early school performance, scholastic achievement, and adolescent risk behaviors. The indicators are: (1) population; (2)…

KIDS COUNT New Hampshire, 2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shemitz, Elllen, Ed.

This Kids Count report presents statewide trends in the well-being of New Hampshire's children. The statistical report is based on 22 indicators of child well-being in 5 interrelated areas: (1) children and families (including child population, births, children living with single parent, and children experiencing parental divorce); (2) economic…

Sustainable rangeland-based livestock production: A perspective on USA and global emerging trends

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

A recent review of statistics published by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization showed that global livestock numbers have increased steadily over the past 30 years. By 2030, livestock numbers in the developing world are expected to reach record highs that will surpass livestock popul...

Limitations of basing screening policies on screening trials: The US Preventive Services Task Force and Prostate Cancer Screening.

PubMed

Etzioni, Ruth; Gulati, Roman; Cooperberg, Matt R; Penson, David M; Weiss, Noel S; Thompson, Ian M

2013-04-01

The US Preventive Services Task Force recently recommended against prostate-specific antigen screening for prostate cancer based primarily on evidence from the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer (ERSPC) and the US Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) cancer screening trial. : To examine limitations of basing screening policy on evidence from screening trials. We reviewed published modeling studies that examined population and trial data. The studies (1) project the roles of screening and changes in primary treatment in the US mortality decline; (2) extrapolate the ERSPC mortality reduction to the long-term US setting; (3) estimate overdiagnosis based on US incidence trends; and (4) quantify the impact of control arm screening on PLCO mortality results. Screening plausibly explains 45% and changes in primary treatment can explain 33% of the US prostate cancer mortality decline. Extrapolating the ERSPC results to the long-term US setting implies an absolute mortality reduction at least 5 times greater than that observed in the trial. Approximately 28% of screen-detected cases are overdiagnosed in the United States versus 58% of screen-detected cases suggested by the ERSPC results. Control arm screening can explain the null result in the PLCO trial. Modeling studies indicate that population trends and trial results extended to the long-term population setting are consistent with greater benefit of prostate-specific antigen screening-and more favorable harm-benefit tradeoffs-than has been suggested by empirical trial evidence.

Trends in Surface Level Ozone Observations from Human-health Relevant Metrics: Results from the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fleming, Z. L.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Doherty, R. M.; Malley, C.; Cooper, O. R.; Pinto, J. P.; Colette, A.; Xu, X.; Simpson, D.; Schultz, M.; Hamad, S.; Moola, R.; Solberg, S.; Feng, Z.

2017-12-01

Ozone is an air pollutant formed in the atmosphere from precursor species (NOx, VOCs, CH4, CO) that is detrimental to human health and ecosystems. The global Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) initiative has assembled a global database of surface ozone observations and generated ozone exposure metrics at thousands of measurement sites around the world. This talk will present results from the assessment focused on those indicators most relevant to human health. Specifically, the trends in ozone, comparing different time periods and patterns across regions and among metrics will be addressed. In addition, the fraction of population exposed to high ozone levels and how this has changed between 2000 and 2014 will also be discussed. The core time period analyzed for trends was 2000-2014, selected to include a greater number of sites in East Asia. Negative trends were most commonly observed at many US and some European sites, whereas many sites in East Asia showed positive trends, while sites in Japan showed more of a mix of positive and negative trends. More than half of the sites showed a common direction and significance in the trends for all five human-health relevant metrics. The peak ozone metrics indicate a reduction in exposure to peak levels of ozone related to photochemical episodes in Europe and the US. A considerable number of European countries and states within the US have shown a decrease in population-weighted ozone over time. The 2000-2014 results will be augmented and compared to the trend analysis for additional time periods that cover a greater number of years, but by necessity are based on fewer sites. Trends are found to be statistically significant at a larger fraction of sites with longer time series, compared to the shorter (2000-2014) time series.

The linear trend of headache prevalence and some headache features in school children.

PubMed

Ozge, Aynur; Buğdayci, Resul; Saşmaz, Tayyar; Kaleağasi, Hakan; Kurt, Oner; Karakelle, Ali; Siva, Aksel

2007-04-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the age and sex dependent linear trend of recurrent headache prevalence in schoolchildren in Mersin. A stratified sample composed of 5562 children; detailed characteristics were previously published. In this study the prevalence distribution of headache by age and sex showed a peak in the female population at the age of 11 (27.2%) with a plateau in the following years. The great stratified random sample results suggested that, in addition to socio-demographic features, detailed linear trend analysis showed headache features of children with headache have some specific characteristics dependent on age, gender and headache type. This study results can constitute a basis for the future epidemiological based studies.

Trends and Characteristics of Rural and Small Town Canada. Working Paper No. 15.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biggs, Brian; And Others

This report summarizes demographic, economic, and social statistics on Canada's rural and small towns through 1989. Rural and small towns include areas with populations of less than 10,000 persons or a population density of less than 400 per square kilometer. The first section examines rural-urban differences in population trends and age…

Numbers, Numbers, Numbers: The Role of Population Studies in Social Studies and Global Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, James R.

2008-01-01

Population trends--birth and death rates, immigration patterns, sex ratios, and life expectancies--are one of the most important issues facing the international community. These trends' relationship to the world economy, the environment, and developing countries' ability to meet the needs of growing populations is a topic appropriate for the…

Population Trends and Management of the Bank Swallow (Riparia riparia) on the Sacramento River, California

Treesearch

Barrett A. Garrison; Ronald W. Schlorff; Joan M. Humphrey; Stephen A. Laymon; Frank J. Michny

1989-01-01

Annual monitoring of Bank Swallows (Riparia riparia) along the Sacramento River, California has been conducted since 1986 to determine population trends, evaluate impacts from bank protection and flood control projects, and implement and monitor mitigation efforts. The population of Bank Swallows in a 50-mile river reach remained static over 3...

Demographic Trends in the Republic of Zaire. Caltech Population Program Occasional Papers, Series 1, Number 5.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boute, Joseph

This paper, one in a series of occasional publications, discusses population growth and trends in the African Republic of Zaire. The series is intended to increase understanding of the interrelationships between population growth and socioeconomic and cultural patterns throughout the world, and to communicate this understanding to scholars and…

Recent trends in incidence of five common cancers in 26 European countries since 1988: Analysis of the European Cancer Observatory.

PubMed

Arnold, Melina; Karim-Kos, Henrike E; Coebergh, Jan Willem; Byrnes, Graham; Antilla, Ahti; Ferlay, Jacques; Renehan, Andrew G; Forman, David; Soerjomataram, Isabelle

2015-06-01

Individual country- and cancer site-specific studies suggest that the age-adjusted incidence of many common cancers has increased in European populations over the past two decades. To quantify the extent of these trends and the recent burden of cancer, here we present a comprehensive overview of trends in population-based incidence of the five common cancers across Europe derived from a new web-based portal of the European cancer registries. Data on incidence for cancers of the colon and rectum, prostate, breast, corpus uteri and stomach diagnosed from 1988 to 2008 were obtained from the European Cancer Observatory for cancer registries from 26 countries. Annual age-standardised incidence rates and average annual percentage changes were calculated. Incidence of four common cancers in eastern and central European countries (prostate, postmenopausal breast, corpus uteri and colorectum) started to approach levels in northern and western Europe, where rates were already high in the past but levelled off in some countries in recent years. Decreases in stomach cancer incidence were seen in all countries. Increasing trends in incidence of the most common cancers, except stomach cancer, are bad news to public health but can largely be explained by well-known changes in society in the past decades. Thus, current and future efforts in primary cancer prevention should not only remain focussed on the further reduction of smoking but engage in the long-term efforts to retain healthy lifestyles, especially avoiding excess weight through balanced diets and regular physical exercise. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Alcohol policy changes and 22-year trends in individual alcohol consumption in a Swiss adult population: a 1993-2014 cross-sectional population-based study.

PubMed

Dumont, Shireen; Marques-Vidal, Pedro; Favrod-Coune, Thierry; Theler, Jean-Marc; Gaspoz, Jean-Michel; Broers, Barbara; Guessous, Idris

2017-03-15

Evidence on the impact of legislative changes on individual alcohol consumption is limited. Using an observational study design, we assessed trends in individual alcohol consumption of a Swiss adult population following the public policy changes that took place between 1993 and 2014, while considering individual characteristics and secular trends. Cross-sectional study. Swiss general adult population. Data from 18 963 participants were collected between 1993 and 2014 (aged 18-75 years). We used data from the 'Bus Santé' study, an annual health survey conducted in random samples of the adult population in the State of Geneva, Switzerland. Individual alcohol intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Individual characteristics including education were self-reported. 7 policy changes (6 about alcohol and 1 about tobacco) that occurred between 1993 and 2014 defined 6 different periods. We predicted alcohol intake using quantile regression with multivariate analysis for each period adjusting for participants' characteristics and tested significance periods. Sensitivity analysis was performed including drinkers only, the 10th centile of highest drinkers and smoker's status. Between 1993 and 2014, participants' individual alcohol intake decreased from 7.1 to 5.4 g/day (24% reduction, p<0.001). Men decreased their alcohol intake by 34% compared with 22% for women (p<0.001). The decrease in alcohol intake remained significant when considering drinkers only (28% decrease, p<0.001) and the 10th centile highest drinkers (24% decrease, p<0.001). Consumption of all alcoholic beverages decreased between 1993 and 2014 except for the moderate consumption of beer, which increased. After adjustment for participants' characteristics and secular trends, no independent association between alcohol legislative changes and individual alcohol intake was found. Between 1993 and 2014, alcohol consumption decreased in the Swiss adult population independently of policy changes. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

Marital age homogamy in China: A reversal of trend in the reform era?*

PubMed Central

Mu, Zheng; Xie, Yu

2014-01-01

This paper reports on a study of trends in marital age homogamy in China from 1960 to 2005 that uses data from the China 2005 1% Population Inter-census Survey. Instead of a consistent increase in age homogamy, as expected, results show an inverted U-shaped trend. One plausible explanation is that intensified economic pressure, rising consumerism, and a shrinking gender gap in education during the post-1990s reform era have acted to increase women's desire to marry men who are more economically established, and thus usually older, than less financially secure men. We argue that age hypergamy maintains status hypergamy, a deeply rooted norm for couples in China. An auxiliary analysis based on the human capital model for earnings supports this interpretation. A continued trend in age hypergamy implies a future “marriage squeeze” for men of low socioeconomic status. PMID:24468440

Foreword: Contributions of Arctic PRISM to monitoring western hemispheric shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Skagen, Susan K.; Smith, Paul A.; Andres, Brad A.; Donaldson, Garry; Brown, Stephen; Bart, Jonathan R.; Johnston, Victoria H.

2012-01-01

Long-term monitoring of populations is of paramount importance to understanding responses of organisms to global environmental change and to evaluating whether conservation practices are yielding intended results through time (Wiens 2009). The population status of many shorebird species, the focus of this volume, remain poorly known. Long-distance migrant shorebirds have proven particularly difficult to monitor, in part because of their highly inaccessible regions. As migrant shorebirds travel the length of the hemisphere, the congregate and disperse in ways that vary among species, locations, and years, presenting serious challenges to designing and implementing monitoring programs. Rigorous field and quantitative methods that estimate population size and monitor trends are vitally needed to direct and evaluate effective conservation measures. Many management efforts depend on unbiased population size estimates; for examples, the shorebird conservation plans for both Canada and the United States seek to restore populations to levels calculated for the 1970s based on the best information available from existing surveys. Further, federal wildlife agencies within the United States and Canada have mandates to understand the state of their nations' resources under various conventions for the protection of migratory birds. Accurate estimates of population size are vital statistics for a variety of conservation activities, such as prioritizing species for conservation action and setting management targets. Areas of essential habitat, such as those designated under the Western Hemisphere Shorebird Reserve Network, the Important Bird Areas program of BirdLife Internationals and the National Audubon Society, or Canada's National Wildlife Areas program, are all evaluated on the basis of proportions of species' populations which they contain. The size, and trends in size, of a species' population are considered key information for assessing its vulnerability and subsequent listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and the Canadian Species at Risk Act. To meet the need for information on population size and trends, shorebird biologists from Canada and the United States proposed a shared blueprint for shorebird monitoring across the Western Hemisphere in the late 1990s; this effort was undertaken in concert with the development of the Canadian and the U.S. Shorebird Conservation Plans. Soon thereafter, partners in the monitoring effort adopted the name "Program for Regional and International Shorebird Monitoring" (PRISM). Among the primary objectives of PRISM were to estimate the population sizes and trends of breeding North American shorebirds and describe their distributions. PRISM members evaluated ongoing and potential monitoring approached to address 74 taxa (including subspecies) and proposed a combination of arctic and boreal breeding surveys, temperate breeding and non-breeding surveys, and neotropical surveys.

Average sperm count remains unchanged despite reduction in maternal smoking: results from a large cross-sectional study with annual investigations over 21 years.

PubMed

Priskorn, L; Nordkap, L; Bang, A K; Krause, M; Holmboe, S A; Egeberg Palme, D L; Winge, S B; Mørup, N; Carlsen, E; Joensen, U N; Blomberg Jensen, M; Main, K M; Juul, A; Skakkebaek, N E; Jensen, T K; Jørgensen, N

2018-06-01

How are temporal trends in lifestyle factors, including exposure to maternal smoking in utero, associated to semen quality in young men from the general population? Exposure to maternal smoking was associated with lower sperm counts but no overall increase in sperm counts was observed during the study period despite a decrease in this exposure. Meta-analyses suggest a continuous decline in semen quality but few studies have investigated temporal trends in unselected populations recruited and analysed with the same protocol over a long period and none have studied simultaneous trends in lifestyle factors. Cross-sectional population-based study including ~300 participants per year (total number = 6386) between 1996 and 2016. The study is based on men from the Greater Copenhagen area, Denmark, with a median age of 19 years, and unselected with regard to fertility status and semen quality. The men delivered a semen sample, had a blood sample drawn and a physical examination performed and answered a comprehensive questionnaire, including information on lifestyle and the mother's pregnancy. Temporal trends in semen quality and lifestyle were illustrated graphically, and trends in semen parameters and the impact of prenatal and current lifestyle factors were explored in multiple regression analyses. Throughout the study period, 35% of the men had low semen quality. Overall, there were no persistent temporal trends in semen quality, testicular volume or levels of follicle-stimulating hormone over the 21 years studied. The men's alcohol intake was lowest between 2011 and 2016, whereas BMI, use of medication and smoking showed no clear temporal trends. Parental age increased, and exposure in utero to maternal smoking declined from 40% among men investigated in 1996-2000 to 18% among men investigated in 2011-2016. Exposure to maternal smoking was associated with lower sperm counts but no overall increase in sperm counts was observed despite the decrease in this exposure. Information of current and prenatal lifestyle was obtained by self-report, and the men delivered only one semen sample each. The significant decline in in utero exposure to maternal smoking, which was not reflected in an overall improvement of semen quality at the population level, suggest that other unknown adverse factors may maintain the low semen quality among Danish men. The study has received financial support from the ReproUnion; the Research fund of Rigshospitalet, Copenhagen University Hospital; the European Union (Contract numbers BMH4-CT96-0314,QLK4-CT-1999-01422, QLK4-CT-2002-00603, FP7/2007-2013, DEER Grant agreement no. 212844); the Danish Ministry of Health; the Danish Environmental Protection Agency; A.P. Møller and wife Chastine McKinney Møllers foundation; and Svend Andersens Foundation. None of the funders had any role in the study design, collection, analysis or interpretation of data, writing of the paper or publication decisions. N/A.

Great Lakes prey fish populations: A cross-basin overview of status and trends in 2008

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorman, Owen T.; Bunnell, David B.

2009-01-01

Assessments of prey fishes in the Great Lakes have been conducted annually since the 1970s by the Great Lakes Science Center, sometimes assisted by partner agencies. Prey fish assessments differ among lakes in the proportion of a lake covered, seasonal timing, bottom trawl gear used, sampling design, and the manner in which the trawl is towed (across or along bottom contours). Because each assessment is unique in one or more important aspects, a direct comparison of prey fish catches among lakes is problematic. All of the assessments, however, produce indices of abundance or biomass that can be standardized to facilitate comparisons of trends among lakes and to illustrate present status of the populations. We present indices of abundance for important prey fishes in the Great Lakes standardized to the highest value for a time series within each lake: cisco (Coregonus artedi), bloater (C. hoyi), rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax), and alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus). We also provide indices for round goby (Neogobius melanostomus), an invasive fish presently spreading throughout the basin. Our intent is to provide a short, informal report emphasizing data presentation rather than synthesis; for this reason we intentionally avoid use of tables and cited references.For each lake, standardized relative indices for annual biomass and density estimates of important prey fishes were calculated as the fraction relative to the largest value observed in the times series. To determine whether basin-wide trends were apparent for each species, we first ranked standardized index values within each lake. When comparing ranked index values from three or more lakes, we calculated the Kendall coefficient of concordance (W), which can range from 0 (complete discordance or disagreement among trends) to 1 (complete concordance or agreement among trends). The P-value for W provides the probability of agreement across the lakes. When comparing ranked index values from two lakes, we calculated the Kendall correlation coefficient (τ), which ranges from -1 (inverse association, perfect disagreement) to 1 (direct association, perfect agreement). Here, the P-value for τ provides the probability of either inverse or direct association between the lakes. First, we present trends in relative biomass of age-1 and older prey fishes to show changes in populations within each lake. Then, we present standardized indices of numerical abundance of a single age class to show changes in relative year-class strength within each lake. Indices of year-class strength reliably reflect the magnitude of the cohort size at subsequent ages. However, because of differences in survey timing across lakes, the age class that is used for each species to index year-class strength varies across lakes and, just as surveys differ among lakes, methods for determining fish age-class differ also. For Lake Superior cisco, bloater, smelt, and Lake Michigan alewife, year- class strengths are based on aged fish and age-length keys, and for all other combinations of lakes and species, age-classes are assigned based on fish length cut-offs. Our intent with this report is to provide a cross-lakes view of population trends but not to propose reasons for those trends.

Wildlife population trends in protected areas predicted by national socio-economic metrics and body size

PubMed Central

Barnes, Megan D.; Craigie, Ian D.; Harrison, Luke B.; Geldmann, Jonas; Collen, Ben; Whitmee, Sarah; Balmford, Andrew; Burgess, Neil D.; Brooks, Thomas; Hockings, Marc; Woodley, Stephen

2016-01-01

Ensuring that protected areas (PAs) maintain the biodiversity within their boundaries is fundamental in achieving global conservation goals. Despite this objective, wildlife abundance changes in PAs are patchily documented and poorly understood. Here, we use linear mixed effect models to explore correlates of population change in 1,902 populations of birds and mammals from 447 PAs globally. On an average, we find PAs are maintaining populations of monitored birds and mammals within their boundaries. Wildlife population trends are more positive in PAs located in countries with higher development scores, and for larger-bodied species. These results suggest that active management can consistently overcome disadvantages of lower reproductive rates and more severe threats experienced by larger species of birds and mammals. The link between wildlife trends and national development shows that the social and economic conditions supporting PAs are critical for the successful maintenance of their wildlife populations. PMID:27582180

Wildlife population trends in protected areas predicted by national socio-economic metrics and body size

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnes, Megan D.; Craigie, Ian D.; Harrison, Luke B.; Geldmann, Jonas; Collen, Ben; Whitmee, Sarah; Balmford, Andrew; Burgess, Neil D.; Brooks, Thomas; Hockings, Marc; Woodley, Stephen

2016-09-01

Ensuring that protected areas (PAs) maintain the biodiversity within their boundaries is fundamental in achieving global conservation goals. Despite this objective, wildlife abundance changes in PAs are patchily documented and poorly understood. Here, we use linear mixed effect models to explore correlates of population change in 1,902 populations of birds and mammals from 447 PAs globally. On an average, we find PAs are maintaining populations of monitored birds and mammals within their boundaries. Wildlife population trends are more positive in PAs located in countries with higher development scores, and for larger-bodied species. These results suggest that active management can consistently overcome disadvantages of lower reproductive rates and more severe threats experienced by larger species of birds and mammals. The link between wildlife trends and national development shows that the social and economic conditions supporting PAs are critical for the successful maintenance of their wildlife populations.

Marsh birds and the North American Breeding Bird Survey: judging the value of a landscape level survey for habitat specialist species with low detection rates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.

1999-01-01

The North American Breeding Bird Survey was started in 1966, and provides information on population change for >400 species of birds. it covers the continental United States, Canada, and Alaska, and is conducted once each year, in June, by volunteer observers. A 39.4 kIn roadside survey route is driven starting 30 min before sunrise, and a 3 min point count is conducted at each of 50 stops spaced every 0.8 kIn. Existing analyses of the data are internet-based (http://www.mbr-pwrc.usgs.govlbbslbbs.html), and include maps of relative abundance, estimates of population change including trends (%/yr), composite annual indices (pattern in time), and maps of population trend (pattern in space). At least 36 species of marsh birds are encountered on the BBS, and the survey provides estimates with greatly varying levels of efficiency for the species. It is often difficult to understand how well the BBS surveys a species. Often, efficiency is judged by estimating trend and its variance for a species, then by calculating power and needed samples to detect a prespecified trend over some time period (e.g., a 2%/yr trend over 31 yr). Unfortunately, this approach is not always valid, as estimated trends and variances can be of little use if the population is poorly sampled. Lurking concerns with BBS data include (1) incomplete coverage of species range; (2) undersampling of habitats; and (3) low and variable visibility of birds during point counts. It is difficult to evaluate these concerns, because known populations do not exist for comparison with counts, and detection rates are time-consuming and costly to estimate. I evaluated the efficiency of the BBS for selected rails (Rallidae) and snipes (Scolopacidae), presenting estimates of population trend over 1966-1996 (T), power to detect 2%/yr trend over 31 yr, needed samples to achieve power of 0.75 with alpha= 0.1, number of survey routes with data for the species (N), average abundance on survey routes (RA), and maps of relative abundance. Examples include Yellow Rail (Coturnicops noveboracensis) (T=12 %/yr; P= 0.0085; N =28; routes; RA=0.05; Power=0.37; Needed samples=85), Black Rail (Laterallus jamaicensis) (No trend data or power information available, N =8), Clapper Rail (Rallus longirostris) (T=1.9%/yr; P=0.55; N =64; RA=0.31; Power=0.35; Needed samples=590), King Rail (Rallus elegans) (T=-4.2 %/yr; P= 0.03; N =76; Power=0.41; Needed samples=159), Sora (Porzana carolina) (T=0.98 %/yr; P= 0.24; N =720; RA= 0.92; Power=0.69; Needed samples= 377), and Common Snipe (Gallinago gallinago) (T=-0.24 %/yr; P= 0.54; N =1412; RA= 2.19; Power=0.98; Needed samples=205). With regard to quality of BBS data, marsh birds fall into 3 categories: (1) almost never encountered on BBS routes; (2) encountered at extremely low abundances on BBS routes; and (3) probably fairly well sampled by BBS roadside counts. BBS data can provide useful information for many marsh bird species, but users should be aware of the limitations of the BBS sample for monitoring species that have low visibility from point counts and prefer habitats not often encountered on roadsides.

Chronic lung disease and multiple sclerosis: Incidence, prevalence, and temporal trends.

PubMed

Marrie, Ruth Ann; Patten, Scott; Tremlett, Helen; Svenson, Lawrence W; Wolfson, Christina; Yu, B Nancy; Elliott, Lawrence; Profetto-McGrath, Joanne; Warren, Sharon; Leung, Stella; Jette, Nathalie; Bhan, Virender; Fisk, John D

2016-07-01

We aimed to estimate the incidence and prevalence of chronic lung disease (CLD), including asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, in the MS population versus a matched cohort from the general population. We used population-based administrative data from four Canadian provinces to identify 44,452 persons with MS and 220,849 age-, sex- and geographically-matched controls aged 20 years and older. We employed a validated case definition to estimate the incidence and prevalence of CLD over the period 1995-2005, and used Poisson regression to assess temporal trends. In 2005, the crude incidence of CLD per 100,000 persons was 806 (95%CI: 701-911) in the MS population, and 757 in the matched population (95%CI: 712-803). In 2005, the crude prevalence of CLD was 13.5% (95%CI: 13.1-14.0%) in the MS population, and 12.4% (95%CI: 12.3-12.6%) in the matched population. Among persons aged 20-44 years, the average annual incidence of CLD was higher in the MS population than in the matched population (RR 1.15; 95%CI: 1.02-1.30), but did not differ between populations for those aged ≥45 years. The incidence of CLD was stable, but the prevalence of CLD increased 60% over the study period. CLD is relatively common in the MS population. The incidence of CLD has been stable over time, but the prevalence of CLD has increased. Among persons aged 20-44 years, CLD is more common in the MS population than in a matched population. Given the prevalence of CLD in the MS population, further attention to the effects of CLD on outcomes in MS and approaches to mitigating those effects are warranted. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

What can Google and Wikipedia can tell us about a disease? Big Data trends analysis in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus.

PubMed

Sciascia, Savino; Radin, Massimo

2017-11-01

To investigate trends of Internet search volumes linked to Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE), on-going clinical trials and research developments associated to the disease, using Big Data monitoring and data mining. We performed a longitudinal analysis based on the large amount of data generated by Google Trends, scientific search tools (SCOPUS, Medline/Pubmed/ClinicalTrails.gov) considering 'SLE', and 'lupus' in a 5-year web-based research. Wikipedia page views were also analysed using WikiTrends and the results were compared with the search volumes generated by Google Trends. We observed an overall higher distribution of search volumes from Google Trends in United States, South America, Canada, South Africa, Australia and Europe (mainly Italy, United Kingdom, Spain, France, Germany), showing a geographically heterogeneity in insight into health-related behaviour of the different populations towards SLE. By comparing the search volumes analysing the Wikipedia page views of both SLE and belimumab, we found a close peak trend, reflecting the knowledge translation after the approval of belimumab for the treatment of SLE. When focusing on search volumes of Google Trends, we noticed that the highest peaks were related to news headlines that involved celebrities affected by SLE, also when comparing to the peak generated by the approval of belimumab. This new approach, able to investigate health information seeking, might give an estimate of the health-related demand and even of the health-related behaviour of SLE, bringing new light to unanswered questions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Recent European Surface Ozone Trends Considering Site Representativeness and Mete-orology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henne, S.; Fleming, Z.; Brunner, D.; Klausen, J.; Buchmann, B.

2009-04-01

Recent trends of surface ozone (O3) within Europe vary substantially depending on the location and surroundings of a measurement site. The influence of long-range transport from North America and Asia, changes in stratosphere-troposphere exchange, increase in lower stratospheric O3 and changes in advection patterns are possible drivers for the observed O3 trends. O3 concentrations greatly depend on meteorology (temperature and radiation) and local to regional emissions of precursor gases and therefore on the representativeness of a site (e.g. background vs. urban site) and regional emission trends. We investigated the representativeness of 1264 "rural" and "suburban" background sites (as available through the European Environment Agency (EEA )Airbase database) by analysing population density, land cover and topography in the surrounding of the sites. A hierarchical clustering method was applied to derive an independent site categorization. The two area types as specified by EEA are split into 7 categories: elevated, lowered, remote, rural, rural/coastal, rural/polluted, suburban. Furthermore, we analysed the trend of surface O3 and Ox (O3+NO2) for the mentioned sites based on the above site categorization, local meteorology and precursor emission trends. Of the 1264 sites 161 possess sufficiently long and complete O3 data series suitable for robust trend estimation, while for 100 sites both O3 and NO2 data are available. We present a strategy for further data exclusion based on available data quality information and a break detection algorithm. First results of the trend analysis applying different statistical approaches are discussed.

[Mortality of working age population in Russia and indusrial countries in Europe: trends of the last two decades].

PubMed

Izmerov, N F; Tikhonova, G I; Gorchakova, T Iu

2014-01-01

The purpose of the study was to carry out comparative analysis of the status and trends in mortality of male and female population of working age (15-59 (54) years) in Russia and the EU-27. Based on official Russian (Rosstat) data, on the global database of the World Health Organization's cause of death (The WHO Mortality Database, WHOMD) and databases The Human Mortality Database (HMD) of the sex-age composition of the population and the number of deaths from certain causes of death by age and sex standardized (direct method) mortality rates of working age population from selected causes of death for 1990 and 2011 in Russia and the average for the EU-27 were calculated. Analysis of trends in mortality of male and female population of working age in Russia over the past two decades shows that, despite the positive changes in during last six years, in 2011, age-standardized mortality rates remained above the 1990 level for most causes of death. During the same period in the EU-27 mortality in men (15-59 years) and women (15-54 years) increased from almost all causes ofdeath, which led to an even greatergap between Russia and developed countries on this indicator: standardized mortality rate of the male population of Russia in 1990 was higher than in the EU-27 by 2.1 times, and by 2011 the gap had increased to 3.5 times. The women in the 1990 had 1.5 times higher standardized mortality rates, and by 2011 the gap had increased to 2.7 times. Despite a steady decline in the mortality rates of working age population after 2005, its level in 2012 was still higher than the one of 1990 for both men and women, which led to a further increase in the gap between the age-standardized coefficients of mortality rate of working age population in Russia and the countries of European Community-27 (15-59 (54)). Faster reduction of mortality rate in the working age population will preserve Russian population and its labor potential.

Sunbed Use Prevalence and Associated Skin Health Habits: Results of a Representative, Population-Based Survey among Austrian Residents

PubMed Central

Haluza, Daniela; Simic, Stana; Moshammer, Hanns

2016-01-01

Recreational sunbed use accounts for the main non-solar source of exposure to ultraviolet radiation in fair-skinned Western populations. Indoor tanning is associated with increased risks for acute and chronic dermatological diseases. The current community-based study assessed the one-year prevalence of sunbed use and associated skin health habits among a representative, gender-balanced sample of 1500 Austrian citizens. Overall one-year prevalence of sunbed use was 8.9% (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.5%–10.4%), with slightly higher prevalence in females (9.2%, 95% CI 7.3%–11.2%) compared to males (8.6%, 95% CI 6.7%–10.6%). Factors predicting sunbed use were younger age (by trend decreasing with older age), place of living, smoking, skin type (by trend increasing with darker skin), sun exposure, motives to tan, and use of UV-free tanning products. Despite media campaigns on the harmful effects of excessive sunlight and sunbed exposure, we found a high prevalence of self-reported sunbed use among Austrian citizens. From a Public (Skin) Health perspective, the current research extends the understanding of prevailing leisure time skin health habits in adding data on prevalence of sunbed use in the general Austrian population. PMID:26907308

Firearm and Nonfirearm Homicide in 5 South African Cities: A Retrospective Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Thompson, Mary Lou; Myers, Jonathan E.

2014-01-01

Objective. We assessed the effectiveness of South Africa’s Firearm Control Act (FCA), passed in 2000, on firearm homicide rates compared with rates of nonfirearm homicide across 5 South African cities from 2001 to 2005. Methods. We conducted a retrospective population-based study of 37 067 firearm and nonfirearm homicide cases. Generalized linear models helped estimate and compare time trends of firearm and nonfirearm homicides, adjusting for age, sex, race, day of week, city, year of death, and population size. Results. There was a statistically significant decreasing trend regarding firearm homicides from 2001, with an adjusted year-on-year homicide rate ratio of 0.864 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.848, 0.880), representing a decrease of 13.6% per annum. The year-on-year decrease in nonfirearm homicide rates was also significant, but considerably lower at 0.976 (95% CI = 0.954, 0.997). Results suggest that 4585 (95% CI = 4427, 4723) lives were saved across 5 cities from 2001 to 2005 because of the FCA. Conclusions. Strength, timing and consistent decline suggest stricter gun control mediated by the FCA accounted for a significant decrease in homicide overall, and firearm homicide in particular, during the study period. PMID:24432917

Estimating population trends with a linear model: Technical comments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, John R.; Link, William A.; Royle, J. Andrew

2004-01-01

Controversy has sometimes arisen over whether there is a need to accommodate the limitations of survey design in estimating population change from the count data collected in bird surveys. Analyses of surveys such as the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) can be quite complex; it is natural to ask if the complexity is necessary, or whether the statisticians have run amok. Bart et al. (2003) propose a very simple analysis involving nothing more complicated than simple linear regression, and contrast their approach with model-based procedures. We review the assumptions implicit to their proposed method, and document that these assumptions are unlikely to be valid for surveys such as the BBS. One fundamental limitation of a purely design-based approach is the absence of controls for factors that influence detection of birds at survey sites. We show that failure to model observer effects in survey data leads to substantial bias in estimation of population trends from BBS data for the 20 species that Bart et al. (2003) used as the basis of their simulations. Finally, we note that the simulations presented in Bart et al. (2003) do not provide a useful evaluation of their proposed method, nor do they provide a valid comparison to the estimating- equations alternative they consider.

A comprehensive population dataset for Afghanistan constructed using GIS-based dasymetric mapping methods

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Allyson L.; Hubbard, Bernard E.

2014-01-01

This report summarizes the application of dasymetric methods for mapping the distribution of population throughout Afghanistan. Because Afghanistan's population has constantly changed through decades of war and conflict, existing vector and raster GIS datasets (such as point settlement densities and intensities of lights at night) do not adequately reflect the changes. The purposes of this report are (1) to provide historic population data at the provincial and district levels that can be used to chart population growth and migration trends within the country and (2) to provide baseline information that can be used for other types of spatial analyses of Afghanistan, such as resource and hazard assessments; infrastructure and capacity rebuilding; and assisting with international, regional, and local planning.

Predicting the response of populations to environmental change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ives, A.R.

1995-04-01

When subject to long-term directional environmental perturbations, changes in population densities depend on the positive and negative feedbacks operating through interactions within and among species in a community. This paper develops techniques to predict the long-term responses of population densities to environmental changes using data on short-term population fluctuations driven by short-term environmental variability. In addition to giving quantitative predictions, the techniques also reveal how different qualitative patterns of species interactions either buffer or accentuate population responses to environmental trends. All of the predictions are based on regression coefficients extracted from time series data, and they can therefore be appliedmore » with a minimum of mathematical and statistical gymnastics. 48 refs., 10 figs., 4 tabs.« less

Texting for Health: An Evaluation of a Population Approach to Type 2 Diabetes Risk Reduction With a Personalized Message.

PubMed

Khurshid, Anjum; Brown, Lisanne; Mukherjee, Snigdha; Abebe, Nebeyou; Kulick, David

2015-11-01

txt4health is an innovative, 14-week, interactive, population-based mobile health program for individuals at risk of type 2 diabetes, developed under the Beacon Community Program in the Greater New Orleans, La., area. A comprehensive social marketing campaign sought to enroll hard-to-reach, at-risk populations using a combination of mass media and face-to-face engagement in faith-based and retail environments. Little is known about the effectiveness of social marketing for mobile technology application in the general population. A systematic evaluation of the campaign identified successes and barriers to implementing a population-based mobile health program. Face-to-face engagement helped increase program enrollment after the initial launch; otherwise, enrollment leveled off over time. Results show positive trends in reaching target populations and in the use of mobile phones to record personal health information and set goals for reducing the risk of type 2 diabetes. The lessons from the txt4health campaign can help inform the development and programmatic strategies to provide a person-level intervention using a population-level approach for individuals at risk for diabetes as well as aid in chronic disease management.

Temporal trends in motor vehicle fatalities in the United States, 1968 to 2010 - a joinpoint regression analysis.

PubMed

Bandi, Priti; Silver, Diana; Mijanovich, Tod; Macinko, James

2015-12-01

In the past 40 years, a variety of factors might have impacted motor vehicle (MV) fatality trends in the US, including public health policies, engineering innovations, trauma care improvements, etc. These factors varied in their timing across states/localities, and many were targeted at particular population subgroups. In order to identify and quantify differential rates of change over time and differences in trend patterns between population subgroups, this study employed a novel analytic method to assess temporal trends in MV fatalities between 1968 and 2010, by age group and sex. Cause-specific MV fatality data from traffic injuries between 1968 and 2010, based on death certificates filed in the 50 states, and DC were obtained from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER). Long-term (1968 to 2010) and short-term (log-linear piecewise segments) trends in fatality rates were compared for males and females overall and in four separate age groups using joinpoint regression. MV fatalities declined on average by 2.4% per year in males and 2.2% per year in females between 1968 and 2010, with significant declines observed in all age groups and in both sexes. In males overall and those 25 to 64 years, sharp declines between 1968 and mid-to-late 1990s were followed by a stalling until the mid-2000s, but rates in females experienced a long-term steady decline of a lesser magnitude than males during this time. Trends in those aged <1 to 14 years and 15 to 24 years were mostly steady over time, but males had a larger decline than females in the latter age group between 1968 and the mid-2000s. In ages 65+, short-term trends were similar between sexes. Despite significant long-term declines in MV fatalities, the application of Joinpoint Regression found that progress in young adult and middle-aged adult males stalled in recent decades and rates in males declined relatively more than in females in certain age groups. Future research is needed to establish the causes of these observed trends, including the potential role of contemporaneous MV-related policies and their repeal. Such research is needed in order to better inform the design and evaluation of future population interventions addressing MV fatalities nationally.

A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McRae, B.H.; Schumaker, N.H.; McKane, R.B.; Busing, R.T.; Solomon, A.M.; Burdick, C.A.

2008-01-01

Reliable assessments of how human activities will affect wildlife populations are essential for making scientifically defensible resource management decisions. A principle challenge of predicting effects of proposed management, development, or conservation actions is the need to incorporate multiple biotic and abiotic factors, including land-use and climate change, that interact to affect wildlife habitat and populations through time. Here we demonstrate how models of land-use, climate change, and other dynamic factors can be integrated into a coherent framework for predicting wildlife population trends. Our framework starts with land-use and climate change models developed for a region of interest. Vegetation changes through time under alternative future scenarios are predicted using an individual-based plant community model. These predictions are combined with spatially explicit animal habitat models to map changes in the distribution and quality of wildlife habitat expected under the various scenarios. Animal population responses to habitat changes and other factors are then projected using a flexible, individual-based animal population model. As an example application, we simulated animal population trends under three future land-use scenarios and four climate change scenarios in the Cascade Range of western Oregon. We chose two birds with contrasting habitat preferences for our simulations: winter wrens (Troglodytes troglodytes), which are most abundant in mature conifer forests, and song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), which prefer more open, shrubby habitats. We used climate and land-use predictions from previously published studies, as well as previously published predictions of vegetation responses using FORCLIM, an individual-based forest dynamics simulator. Vegetation predictions were integrated with other factors in PATCH, a spatially explicit, individual-based animal population simulator. Through incorporating effects of landscape history and limited dispersal, our framework predicted population changes that typically exceeded those expected based on changes in mean habitat suitability alone. Although land-use had greater impacts on habitat quality than did climate change in our simulations, we found that small changes in vital rates resulting from climate change or other stressors can have large consequences for population trajectories. The ability to integrate bottom-up demographic processes like these with top-down constraints imposed by climate and land-use in a dynamic modeling environment is a key advantage of our approach. The resulting framework should allow researchers to synthesize existing empirical evidence, and to explore complex interactions that are difficult or impossible to capture through piecemeal modeling approaches. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Problems with the Fraser report Chapter 1: Pitfalls in BMI time trend analysis.

PubMed

Lo, Ernest

2014-11-05

The first chapter of the Fraser report "Obesity in Canada: Overstated Problems, Misguided Policy Solutions" presents a flawed and misleading analysis of BMI time trends. The objective of this commentary is to provide a tutorial on BMI time trend analysis through the examination of these flaws. Three issues are discussed: 1. Spotting regions of confidence interval overlap is a statistically flawed method of assessing trend; regression methods which measure the behaviour of the data as a whole are preferred. 2. Temporal stability in overweight (25≤BMI<30) prevalence must be interpreted in the context of the underlying population BMI distribution. 3. BMI is considered reliable for tracking population-level weight trends due to its high correlation with body fat percentage. BMI-defined obesity prevalence represents a conservative underestimate of the population at risk. The findings of the Fraser report Chapter 1 are either refuted or substantially mitigated once the above issues are accounted for, and we do not find that the 'Canadian situation largely lacks a disconcerting or negative trend', as claimed. It is hoped that this commentary will help guide public health professionals who need to interpret, or wish to perform their own, time trend analyses of BMI.

Trends in live birth rates and adverse neonatal outcomes among HIV-positive women in Ontario, Canada, 2002-2009: a descriptive population-based study.

PubMed

Antoniou, Tony; Zagorski, Brandon; Macdonald, Erin M; Bayoumi, Ahmed M; Raboud, Janet; Brophy, Jason; Masinde, Khatundi-Irene; Tharao, Wangari E; Yudin, Mark H; Ng, Ryan; Loutfy, Mona R; Glazier, Richard H

2014-11-01

To characterise trends in live birth rates, adverse neonatal outcomes and socio-demographic characteristics of pregnant women with diagnosed HIV between the ages of 18 and 49 in Ontario, Canada from 1 April 2002 to 31 March 2010, we conducted a population-based study. Utilising linked administrative healthcare databases we used generalised estimating equations to characterise secular trends and examine the association between live births and socio-demographic characteristics, including age, region of birth and neighbourhood income quintile. Between 2002/2003 and 2009/2010, there were 551 live births during 15,610 person-years of follow-up. The proportion of HIV-positive mothers originally from Africa or the Caribbean increased from 26.7% to 51.6% over the study period. The risk of pre-term (risk ratio 2.13, 95% confidence interval 1.74 to 2.61) and small for gestational age births (risk ratio 1.53, 95% confidence interval 1.20 to 1.94) was higher in women with HIV compared with provincial estimates for these outcomes. Women with HIV have rates of pre-term and small for gestational age births that exceed provincial estimates for these outcomes. Further research is required to identify factors mediating these disparities that are amenable to pre-natal risk reduction initiatives. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Disparities in Prevalence of Smoking and Smoking Cessation during Pregnancy: A Population-Based Study

PubMed Central

Dias-Damé, Josiane L.; Cesar, Juraci A.

2015-01-01

Objective. To examine time trends in prevalence of smoking and smoking cessation during pregnancy by family income, maternal level of education, skin color, and age. Methods. We conducted three population-based surveys in 2007, 2010, and 2013 with newly delivered mothers living in the municipality of Rio Grande, Southern Brazil. Data were collected using questionnaires administered after delivery in all (two) maternity units in the city, at Dr. Miguel Riet Corrêa Júnior Hospital and at Santa Casa de Misericórdia. Time trends were analyzed using chi-square test for linear trend. Results. Data of 7,572 women showed that the prevalence of smoking before pregnancy decreased from 28% (26.2–29.7) in 2007 to 22% (20.8–24.0) in 2013 (P < 0.001). Prevalence of smoking during pregnancy decreased from 22% (20.4–23.7) in 2007 to 18% (16.6–19.5) in 2013 (P < 0.001). This reduction varied across income ranging from 17% (poorest) to 35% (richest) (P < 0.001). The lower the income, the higher the smoking prevalence during pregnancy. Smoking cessation was more prevalent among women of higher level of education and income. Conclusions. Smoking before and during pregnancy is still highly prevalent and the prevalence of cessation is low pointing to a need to strengthen actions targeting low-income, less educated, black pregnant women. PMID:26075231

Sports participation increased in Spain: a population-based time trend study of 21 381 adults in the years 2000, 2005 and 2010.

PubMed

Palacios-Ceña, Domingo; Fernandez-de-Las-Peñas, Cesar; Hernández-Barrera, Valentín; Jiménez-Garcia, Rodrigo; Alonso-Blanco, Cristina; Carrasco-Garrido, Pilar

2012-12-01

To assess the trend in prevalence of Spanish adults who engaged in sports activities from 2000 to 2010. Retrospective analysis of three population-based cross-sectional surveys conducted on a representative sample of Spanish adults: 2000 (N=5160), 2005 (N=8170) and 2010 (N=8925). The overall prevalence of sport-active men increased from 45.8% to 52.12% between 2000 and 2010. Among women the prevalence also increased from 27.26% to 33.27% (adjusted OR 1.03 95% CI 1.02 to 1.04). A significant decrease in the prevalence of sport-active subjects was found as the age increases. Adjusted time trends analysis showed that the prevalence of sport-active women and men increased over time in all age groups, with exception of women aged 15-25 years (adjusted OR 0.99, 0.97 to 1.01). Higher educational level was associated with more sport activity. The first reason for not practising sport was 'I have no time due to working or studying'. Less than 10% of women and men reported health problems as the reason for not practising any sport. Sports participation in Spain has increased between 2000 and 2010 among young-aged and middle-aged adults and decreased among older people. Women showed lower prevalence of sport activity as compared to men.

Gastrointestinal parasites in an isolated Norwegian population of wild red deer (Cervus elaphus).

PubMed

Davidson, Rebecca K; Kutz, Susan J; Madslien, Knut; Hoberg, Eric; Handeland, Kjell

2014-10-08

Thirteen red deer (Cervus elaphus), culled from the isolated population at the Mongstad Oil Refinery, Norway, were investigated for gastrointestinal helminths. These animals, enclosed by the refinery fence, do not have contact with other ruminants and have a high population density considering the available browsing area (1 km(2)) within the refinery site (3 km(2)). The population was estimated to be 110-130 at the time of culling. The helminth fauna among these sampled red deer was enumerated and species were identified based on morphology. Ostertagia leptospicularis/O. kolchida was detected in 83% [CI 55 - 95%], Spiculopteragia spiculoptera/S. mathevossiani in 92% [CI 65 - 99%] and Trichostrongylus axei in 42%, [CI 19 - 68%] of the abomasa examined. Characterisation of the intestinal parasite fauna revealed Capillaria bovis, Cooperia oncophora, Oesophagostomum venulosum, Trichuris globulosa and tapeworm fragments (presumed anoplocephalids) in seven individuals. Only one calf had an infection with more than one intestinal helminth (tapeworm fragment and Trichuris globulosa). The remaining six deer had single species intestinal infections. No significant age related trends were seen, with the exception of higher intensity of infection of T. axei in yearlings relative to other age classes. Assessment of abomasal parasite burden and body condition revealed no significant trends. In calves, statistically non-significant correlation was seen between increased parasite burden and decreased slaughter weight, whilst the opposite was seen in adults with the heaviest adults exhibiting the higher burdens. Given the small sample size the trends that were seen need further investigation. The parasite burden was aggregated with three adult red deer harbouring 75% of the total abomasal parasite count. This isolated population was parasitised by a reduced subset of gastrointestinal nematodes typical of this cervid across an extensive geographic range in Eurasia. The intensity and abundance of abomasal nematodes was higher in this isolated population than reported in similar studies of red deer populations across Europe.

Ischaemic heart disease deaths in Brazil: current trends, regional disparities and future projections.

PubMed

Baena, Cristina P; Chowdhury, Rajiv; Schio, Nicolle Amboni; Sabbag, Ary Elias; Guarita-Souza, Luiz Cesar; Olandoski, Marcia; Franco, Oscar H; Faria-Neto, José Rocha

2013-09-01

To quantify the trend of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths in Brazil during the last decade (2000-2010) for various population characteristics and to forecast the upcoming mortality trends across regions in Brazil until the year 2015. Nationwide comparative observational study. The population studied encompassed all adult residents (≥ 20 years) living in five Brazilian regions between 2000 and 2010. Demographic, economic and mortality data were obtained from Brazilian National Mortality Data System and National Applied Economics Research Institute. Subnotified deaths were redistributed proportionally to IHD deaths. Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) per 100 000 inhabitants, by sex and region, were calculated employing a standard Brazilian population and constructing multivariate regression models to quantify and to project temporal trends. Absolute numbers of death due to IHD and region-specific death rates in Brazil by age and sex. During the study period, 627 786 men and 452 690 women died due to IHD in Brazil. ASMR trends across all regions for men and women converged, driven by a declining trend in the South and Southeast and an opposite incline in the North and Northeast (p < 0.05). Future projections demonstrated potential widening of the observed North-South gap in coming years. The IHD death trend in Brazil has changed from a decline to a stagnant state. However, a significant discrepancy in mortality trends exists between the northern and southern regions, which is likely to widen further. Reappraisal of the public health policies tailored to populations with diverse socioeconomic structures is urgently required.

Trends of Underweight and Overweight/Obesity Among Japanese Schoolchildren From 2003 to 2012, Defined by Body Mass Index and Percentage Overweight Cutoffs

PubMed Central

Shirasawa, Takako; Ochiai, Hirotaka; Nanri, Hinako; Nishimura, Rimei; Ohtsu, Tadahiro; Hoshino, Hiromi; Tajima, Naoko; Kokaze, Akatsuki

2015-01-01

Background We investigated the prevalence and trends of underweight and overweight/obesity in a population-based sample of Japanese schoolchildren from 2003 to 2012, defined by body mass index (BMI) and percentage overweight (POW). Methods Subjects comprised fourth and seventh graders from the town of Ina, Japan, from 2003 to 2012. The height and weight of each subject were measured. Children were classified as underweight, normal weight, or overweight/obese using two criteria: BMI cutoff points proposed by the International Obesity Task Force and cutoffs based on POW in Japan. Results Data from 4367 fourth graders and 3724 seventh graders were analyzed. The prevalence of underweight and overweight as defined by POW criteria were lower than those based on BMI criteria. There was a decrease in the prevalence of overweight among fourth-grade boys and girls and seventh-grade girls according to BMI; this decrease was also observed when POW criteria were used for the definition of overweight. Conclusions The prevalence and trends of both underweight and overweight as defined by POW were underestimated among Japanese schoolchildren compared to those determined using BMI. The results of this study also suggest that trends in underweight and overweight/obesity using POW criteria are similar to those based on BMI criteria among schoolchildren in Japan. PMID:25986154

Exploring How Korean Teacher's Attitudes and Self-Efficacy for Using Inquiry and Language Based Teaching Practices Impacts Learning for Culturally and Linguistically Diverse Students: Implications for Science Teacher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Jennifer; Chu, Hye-Eun; Martin, Sonya N.

2016-01-01

Demographic trends in Korea indicate that the student population is becoming more diverse with regards to culture, ethnicity and language. These changes have implications for science classrooms where inquiry-based, student-centered activities require culturally and linguistically diverse (CLD) students to connect with their peers and successfully…

The Gulf of Ambracia's Common Bottlenose Dolphins, Tursiops truncatus: A Highly Dense and yet Threatened Population.

PubMed

Gonzalvo, J; Lauriano, G; Hammond, P S; Viaud-Martinez, K A; Fossi, M C; Natoli, A; Marsili, L

The common bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) is the only cetacean present in the semiclosed waters of the Gulf of Ambracia, Western Greece. This increasingly degraded coastal ecosystem hosts one of the highest observed densities in the Mediterranean Sea for this species. Photo-identification data and tissue samples collected through skin-swabbing and remote biopsy sampling techniques during boat-based surveys conducted between 2006 and 2015 in the Gulf, were used to examine bottlenose dolphin abundance, population trends, site fidelity, genetic differentiation and toxicological status. Bottlenose dolphins showed high levels of year-round site fidelity throughout the 10-year study period. Dolphin population estimates mostly fell between 130 and 170 with CVs averaging about 10%; a trend in population size over the 10 years was a decline of 1.6% per year (but this was not significant). Genetic differentiation between the bottlenose dolphins of the Gulf and their conspecifics from neighbouring populations was detected, and low genetic diversity was found among individuals sampled. In addition, pesticides where identified as factors posing a real toxicological problem for local bottlenose dolphins. Therefore, in the Gulf of Ambracia, high dolphin density does not seem to be indicative of favourable conservation status or pristine habitat. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd All rights reserved.

Incorporating precision, accuracy and alternative sampling designs into a continental monitoring program for colonial waterbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steinkamp, Melanie J.; Peterjohn, B.G.; Keisman, J.L.

2003-01-01

A comprehensive monitoring program for colonial waterbirds in North America has never existed. At smaller geographic scales, many states and provinces conduct surveys of colonial waterbird populations. Periodic regional surveys are conducted at varying times during the breeding season using a variety of survey methods, which complicates attempts to estimate population trends for most species. The US Geological Survey Patuxent Wildlife Research Center has recently started to coordinate colonial waterbird monitoring efforts throughout North America. A centralized database has been developed with an Internet-based data entry and retrieval page. The extent of existing colonial waterbird surveys has been defined, allowing gaps in coverage to be identified and basic inventories completed where desirable. To enable analyses of comparable data at regional or larger geographic scales, sampling populations through statistically sound sampling designs should supersede obtaining counts at every colony. Standardized breeding season survey techniques have been agreed upon and documented in a monitoring manual. Each survey in the manual has associated with it recommendations for bias estimation, and includes specific instructions on measuring detectability. The methods proposed in the manual are for developing reliable, comparable indices of population size to establish trend information at multiple spatial and temporal scales, but they will not result in robust estimates of total population numbers.

Estimating population ecology models for the WWW market: evidence of competitive oligopolies.

PubMed

de Cabo, Ruth Mateos; Gimeno, Ricardo

2013-01-01

This paper proposes adapting a particle filtering algorithm to model online Spanish real estate and job search market segments based on the Lotka-Volterra competition equations. For this purpose the authors use data on Internet information searches from Google Trends to proxy for market share. Market share evolution estimations are coherent with those observed in Google Trends. The results show evidence of low website incompatibility in the markets analyzed. Competitive oligopolies are most common in such low-competition markets, instead of the monopolies predicted by theoretical ecology models under strong competition conditions.

Influenza vaccination coverage estimates in the fee-for service Medicare beneficiary population 2006 - 2016: Using population-based administrative data to support a geographic based near real-time tool.

PubMed

Shen, Angela K; Warnock, Rob; Brereton, Stephaeno; McKean, Stephen; Wernecke, Michael; Chu, Steve; Kelman, Jeffrey A

2018-04-11

Older adults are at great risk of developing serious complications from seasonal influenza. We explore vaccination coverage estimates in the Medicare population through the use of administrative claims data and describe a tool designed to help shape outreach efforts and inform strategies to help raise influenza vaccination rates. This interactive mapping tool uses claims data to compare vaccination levels between geographic (i.e., state, county, zip code) and demographic (i.e., race, age) groups at different points in a season. Trends can also be compared across seasons. Utilization of this tool can assist key actors interested in prevention - medical groups, health plans, hospitals, and state and local public health authorities - in supporting strategies for reaching pools of unvaccinated beneficiaries where general national population estimates of coverage are less informative. Implementing evidence-based tools can be used to address persistent racial and ethnic disparities and prevent a substantial number of influenza cases and hospitalizations.

Estimating and modeling the cure fraction in population-based cancer survival analysis.

PubMed

Lambert, Paul C; Thompson, John R; Weston, Claire L; Dickman, Paul W

2007-07-01

In population-based cancer studies, cure is said to occur when the mortality (hazard) rate in the diseased group of individuals returns to the same level as that expected in the general population. The cure fraction (the proportion of patients cured of disease) is of interest to patients and is a useful measure to monitor trends in survival of curable disease. There are 2 main types of cure fraction model, the mixture cure fraction model and the non-mixture cure fraction model, with most previous work concentrating on the mixture cure fraction model. In this paper, we extend the parametric non-mixture cure fraction model to incorporate background mortality, thus providing estimates of the cure fraction in population-based cancer studies. We compare the estimates of relative survival and the cure fraction between the 2 types of model and also investigate the importance of modeling the ancillary parameters in the selected parametric distribution for both types of model.

A review of population-based prevalence studies of physical activity in adults in the Asia-Pacific region

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Physical activity (PA) surveillance is an important component of non-communicable disease risk factor monitoring, and occurs through national and international surveillance systems. This review identifies population PA estimates for adults in the Asia-Pacific region, and examines variation in trends and prevalence rates obtained using different PA measures. Methods Data were obtained from a MEDLINE search; World Health Organization's Global Health Infobase; Government websites and reference lists of relevant papers. Inclusion criteria included: national studies or those reporting large scale population-level data; data published from 2000 to 2010 and trend data prior; sample sizes over n = 1000, or fewer subjects in small nations. Results In total, 56 population surveys from 29 Asia-Pacific countries were identified. Data on 'sufficient physical activity' amongst adults were available from 45 studies (80%), with estimates ranging from 7% to 93% (median 62%, inter-quartile range 40%-85%). For 14 countries, estimates of 'sufficient activity' were documented in multiple surveys using different methods, with the largest variation from 18% to 92% in Nepal. Median or mean MET-minutes/day, reported in 20 studies, ranged from 6 to 1356. Serial trend data were available for 11 countries (22%), for periods spanning 2-10 years. Of these, five countries demonstrated increases in physical activity over time, four demonstrated decreases and three showed no changes. Conclusions Many countries in the Asia-Pacific region collect population-level PA data. This review highlights differences in estimates within and between countries. Some differences may be real, others due to variation in the PA questions asked and survey methods used. Use of standardized protocols and measures, and combined reporting of data are essential goals of improved international PA surveillance. PMID:22251660

A prediction of the trend of population development in urban and rural areas in China.

PubMed

Hu, Y

1998-01-01

This study predicts trends in population growth, urbanization, and age structure in China. Data were obtained from the 1990 Census. Population totaled 1.22 billion at the end of 1996. The fertility model predicts future fertility by variant and parity; parameters are provided in a table. High, medium, and low fertility variants, respectively, are based on the total regressive fertility rates (TRFR) of 2.23, 1.9, and 1.6. The medium variant assumes 2 children in rural areas. The low variant is ideal and assumes no third parity in rural areas. Urbanization means an annual average increase of 0.5% after 1996 at pace I and 0.8% at pace II. Urban population will be 57.8% of total population by 2050. Under these three variants, population size in 2000 will be 898 million in rural and 403 million in urban areas, 869 million in rural and 400 million in urban areas, and 856 million in rural and 398 million in urban areas, respectively. Population will peak at 1.7 billion in 2050, at 1.48 billion in 2033, and at 1.38 billion in 2023, respectively. During the period 2000-2020, about 10-14 million rural migrants will move to urban areas; 10 million will move thereafter. The elderly aged over 60 years will reach 7% by 2000 and 20% by 2040. Rural population will age faster than urban population. The working age population will reach 775 million in 2000, peak at 868 million in 2016, and will always be over 60% of total population. School-age population will amount to over 300 million by 2030. Young population will always be more than 25% in rural areas, which is nearly 17 percentage points higher than in urban areas.

Clinical evaluation of a novel population-based regression analysis for detecting glaucomatous visual field progression.

PubMed

Kovalska, M P; Bürki, E; Schoetzau, A; Orguel, S F; Orguel, S; Grieshaber, M C

2011-04-01

The distinction of real progression from test variability in visual field (VF) series may be based on clinical judgment, on trend analysis based on follow-up of test parameters over time, or on identification of a significant change related to the mean of baseline exams (event analysis). The aim of this study was to compare a new population-based method (Octopus field analysis, OFA) with classic regression analyses and clinical judgment for detecting glaucomatous VF changes. 240 VF series of 240 patients with at least 9 consecutive examinations available were included into this study. They were independently classified by two experienced investigators. The results of such a classification served as a reference for comparison for the following statistical tests: (a) t-test global, (b) r-test global, (c) regression analysis of 10 VF clusters and (d) point-wise linear regression analysis. 32.5 % of the VF series were classified as progressive by the investigators. The sensitivity and specificity were 89.7 % and 92.0 % for r-test, and 73.1 % and 93.8 % for the t-test, respectively. In the point-wise linear regression analysis, the specificity was comparable (89.5 % versus 92 %), but the sensitivity was clearly lower than in the r-test (22.4 % versus 89.7 %) at a significance level of p = 0.01. A regression analysis for the 10 VF clusters showed a markedly higher sensitivity for the r-test (37.7 %) than the t-test (14.1 %) at a similar specificity (88.3 % versus 93.8 %) for a significant trend (p = 0.005). In regard to the cluster distribution, the paracentral clusters and the superior nasal hemifield progressed most frequently. The population-based regression analysis seems to be superior to the trend analysis in detecting VF progression in glaucoma, and may eliminate the drawbacks of the event analysis. Further, it may assist the clinician in the evaluation of VF series and may allow better visualization of the correlation between function and structure owing to VF clusters. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Trends and predicted trends in presentations of older people to Australian emergency departments: effects of demand growth, population aging and climate change.

PubMed

Burkett, Ellen; Martin-Khan, Melinda G; Scott, Justin; Samanta, Mayukh; Gray, Leonard C

2017-07-01

Objectives The aim of the present study was to describe trends in and age and gender distributions of presentations of older people to Australian emergency departments (EDs) from July 2006 to June 2011, and to develop ED utilisation projections to 2050. Methods A retrospective analysis of data collected in the National Non-admitted Patient Emergency Department Care Database was undertaken to assess trends in ED presentations. Three standard Australian Bureau of Statistics population growth models, with and without adjustment for current trends in ED presentation growth and effects of climate change, were examined with projections of ED presentations across three age groups (0-64, 65-84 and ≥85 years) to 2050. Results From 2006-07 to 2010-11, ED presentations increased by 12.63%, whereas the Australian population over this time increased by only 7.26%. Rates of presentation per head of population were greatest among those aged ≥85 years. Projections of ED presentations to 2050 revealed that overall ED presentations are forecast to increase markedly, with the rate of increase being most marked for older people. Conclusion Growth in Australian ED presentations from 2006-07 to 2010-11 was greater than that expected from population growth alone. The predicted changes in demand for ED care will only be able to be optimally managed if Australian health policy, ED funding instruments and ED models of care are adjusted to take into account the specific care and resource needs of older people. What is known about the topic? Rapid population aging is anticipated over coming decades. International studies and specific local-level Australian studies have demonstrated significant growth in ED presentations. There have been no prior national-level Australian studies of ED presentation trends by age group. What does this paper add? The present study examined national ED presentation trends from July 2006 to June 2011, with specific emphasis on trends in presentation by age group. ED presentation growth was found to exceed population growth in all age groups. The rate of ED presentations per head of population was highest among those aged ≥85 years. ED utilisation projections to 2050, using standard Australian Bureau of Statistics population modelling, with and without adjustment for current ED growth, were developed. The projections demonstrated linear growth in ED presentation for those aged 0-84 years, with growth in ED presentations of the ≥85 year age group demonstrating marked acceleration after 2030. What are the implications for practitioners? Growth in ED presentations exceeding population growth suggests that current models of acute health care delivery require review to ensure that optimal care is delivered in the most fiscally efficient manner. Trends in presentation of older people emphasise the imperative for ED workforce planning and education in care of this complex patient cohort, and the requirement to review funding models to incentivise investment in ED avoidance and substitutive care models targeting older people.

Incidence rates of in-hospital carpal tunnel syndrome in the general population and possible associations with marital status.

PubMed

Mattioli, Stefano; Baldasseroni, Alberto; Curti, Stefania; Cooke, Robin M T; Bena, Antonella; de Giacomi, Giovanna; dell'Omo, Marco; Fateh-Moghadam, Pirous; Melani, Carla; Biocca, Marco; Buiatti, Eva; Campo, Giuseppe; Zanardi, Francesca; Violante, Francesco S

2008-10-28

Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is a socially relevant condition associated with biomechanical risk factors. We evaluated age-sex-specific incidence rates of in-hospital cases of CTS in central/northern Italy and explored relations with marital status. Seven regions were considered (overall population, 14.9 million) over 3-6-year periods between 1997 and 2002 (when out-of-hospital CTS surgery was extremely rare). Incidence rates of in-hospital cases of CTS were estimated based on 1) codified demographic, diagnostic and intervention data in obligatory discharge records from all Italian public/private hospitals, archived (according to residence) on regional databases; 2) demographic general population data for each region. We compared (using the chiscore test) age-sex-specific rates between married, unmarried, divorced and widowed subsets of the general population. We calculated standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for married/unmarried men and women. Age-standardized incidence rates (per 100,000 person-years) of in-hospital cases of CTS were 166 in women and 44 in men (106 overall). Married subjects of both sexes showed higher age-specific rates with respect to unmarried men/women. SIRs were calculated comparing married vs unmarried rates of both sexes: 1.59 (95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.57-1.60) in women, and 1.42 (95% CI, 1.40-1.45) in men. As compared with married women/men, widows/widowers both showed 2-3-fold higher incidence peaks during the fourth decade of life (beyond 50 years of age, widowed subjects showed similar trends to unmarried counterparts). This large population-based study illustrates distinct age-related trends in men and women, and also raises the question whether marital status could be associated with CTS in the general population.

Use of intraspecific variation in thermal responses for estimating an elevational cline in the timing of cold hardening in a sub-boreal conifer.

PubMed

Ishizuka, W; Ono, K; Hara, T; Goto, S

2015-01-01

To avoid winter frost damage, evergreen coniferous species develop cold hardiness with suitable phenology for the local climate regime. Along the elevational gradient, a genetic cline in autumn phenology is often recognised among coniferous populations, but further quantification of evolutionary adaptation related to the local environment and its responsible signals generating the phenological variation are poorly understood. We evaluated the timing of cold hardening among populations of Abies sachalinensis, based on time series freezing tests using trees derived from four seed source populations × three planting sites. Furthermore, we constructed a model to estimate the development of hardening from field temperatures and the intraspecific variations occurring during this process. An elevational cline was detected such that high-elevation populations developed cold hardiness earlier than low-elevation populations, representing significant genetic control. Because development occurred earlier at high-elevation planting sites, the genetic trend across elevation overlapped with the environmental trend. Based on the trade-off between later hardening to lengthen the active growth period and earlier hardening to avoid frost damage, this genetic cline would be adaptive to the local climate. Our modelling approach estimated intraspecific variation in two model components: the threshold temperature, which was the criterion for determining whether the trees accumulated the thermal value, and the chilling requirement for trees to achieve adequate cold hardiness. A higher threshold temperature and a lower chilling requirement could be responsible for the earlier phenology of the high-elevation population. These thermal responses may be one of the important factors driving the elevation-dependent adaptation of A. sachalinensis. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Long-Term Economic and Labor Forecast Trends for Washington. 1996.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lefberg, Irv; And Others

This publication provides actual historical and long-term forecast data on labor force, total wage and salary employment, industry employment, and personal income for the state of Washington. The data are based upon the Washington Office of Financial Management long-term population forecast. Chapter 1 presents long-term forecasts of Washington…

Rhode Island Kids Count Factbook, 2003.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhode Island KIDS COUNT, Providence.

This KIDS COUNT databook is the eighth annual profile examining statewide trends in the well-being of Rhode Island's children. The statistical portrait is based on 53 indicators (3 new indicators in this databook) in 5 areas: (1) family and community (including child population, children in single parent families, and racial and ethnic diversity);…

Georgia Kids Count Factbook, 2000-2001.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dopkins, Laurie B.; Carter, John; Beavers, Barbara

This Kids Count factbook examines statewide and county trends in the well-being of Georgia's children. The statistical portrait is based on indicators in five domains: family and community, economic well-being, health, education, and safety and security. The 21 indicators of well-being are: (1) child population; (2) public school enrollment; (3)…

Illinois Kids Count 2003: The Window of Opportunity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parente, Julie

This Kids Count report examines trends in the well-being of Illinois' children. The statistical portrait is based on 25 indicators in the areas of family, economic security, education, safety, and health. The indicators are: (1) child population and births; (2) language spoken at home; (3) children in two-parent families; (4) grandparents raising…

Rhode Island Kids Count Factbook, 1999.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhode Island KIDS COUNT, Providence.

This KIDS COUNT databook is the fifth annual profile examining statewide trends in the well-being of Rhode Island's children. The statistical portrait is based on 30 indicators in 5 areas: (1) family and community (covering child population and children in single-parent families); (2) economic well-being (covering median household income, cost of…

Rhode Island Kids Count Factbook, 2000.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhode Island KIDS COUNT, Providence.

This KIDS COUNT databook is the sixth annual profile examining statewide trends in the well-being of Rhode Island's children. The statistical portrait is based on 37 indicators in 5 areas: (1) family and community (covering child population and children in single-parent families); (2) economic well-being (covering median household income, cost of…

ENVIRONMENTAL INFLUENCES ON GENETIC DIVERSITY OF CREEK CHUBS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION OF THE USA

EPA Science Inventory

Analysis of genetic diversity within and among populations of stream fishes may provide a powerful method for assessing the status and trends in the condition of aquatic ecosystems. We analyzed mitochondrial DNA sequences (590 bases of cytochrome B) and nuclear DNA loci (109 amp...

Nonsuicidal Self-Injury in a College Population: General Trends and Sex Differences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitlock, Janis; Muehlenkamp, Jennifer; Purington, Amanda; Eckenrode, John; Barreira, Paul; Abrams, Gina Baral; Marchell, Tim; Kress, Victoria; Girard, Kristine; Chin, Calvin; Knox, Kerry

2011-01-01

Objective: To describe basic nonsuicidal self-injury (NSSI) characteristics and to explore sex differences. Methods: A random sample from 8 universities were invited to participate in a Web-based survey in 2006-2007; 38.9% (n = 14,372) participated. Analysis assessed sex differences in NSSI prevalence, practices, severity, perceived dependency,…

Food safety trends in the U.S. and update on pathogenic E. coli

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network (FoodNet): FoodNet is a main part of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Emerging Pathogens Program and was established in 1995 as a population-based sentinel surveillance system to monitor changes in the incidence of nine pathogens ...

Wealth Inequality and Mental Disability Among the Chinese Population: A Population Based Study.

PubMed

Wang, Zhenjie; Du, Wei; Pang, Lihua; Zhang, Lei; Chen, Gong; Zheng, Xiaoying

2015-10-19

In the study described herein, we investigated and explored the association between wealth inequality and the risk of mental disability in the Chinese population. We used nationally represented, population-based data from the second China National Sample Survey on Disability, conducted in 2006. A total of 1,724,398 study subjects between the ages of 15 and 64, including 10,095 subjects with mental disability only, were used for the analysis. Wealth status was estimated by a wealth index that was derived from a principal component analysis of 10 household assets and four other variables related to wealth. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for mental disability for each category, with the lowest quintile category as the referent. Confounding variables under consideration were age, gender, residence area, marital status, ethnicity, education, current employment status, household size, house type, homeownership and living arrangement. The distribution of various types and severities of mental disability differed significantly by wealth index category in the present population. Wealth index category had a positive association with mild mental disability (p for trend <0.01), but had a negative association with extremely severe mental disability (p for trend <0.01). Moreover, wealth index category had a significant, inverse association with mental disability when all severities of mental disability were taken into consideration. This study's results suggest that wealth is a significant factor in the distribution of mental disability and it might have different influences on various types and severities of mental disability.

Trends and outcome predictors after traumatic brain injury surgery: a nationwide population-based study in Taiwan.

PubMed

Shi, Hon-Yi; Hwang, Shiuh-Lin; Lee, I-Chen; Chen, I-Te; Lee, King-Teh; Lin, Chih-Lung

2014-12-01

The authors sought to analyze trends in hospital resource utilization and mortality rates in a population of patients who had received traumatic brain injury (TBI) surgery. This nationwide population-based cohort study retrospectively analyzed 18,286 patients who had received surgical treatment for TBI between 1998 and 2010. The multiple linear regression model and Cox proportional hazards model were used for multivariate assessment of outcome predictors. The prevalence rate of surgical treatment for patients with TBI gradually but significantly (p < 0.001) increased by 47.6% from 5.0 per 100,000 persons in 1998 to 7.4 per 100,000 persons in 2010. Age, sex, Deyo-Charlson comorbidity index score, hospital volume, and surgeon volume were significantly associated with TBI surgery outcomes (p < 0.05). Over the 12-year period analyzed, the estimated mean hospital treatment cost increased 19.06%, whereas the in-hospital mortality rate decreased 10.9%. The estimated mean time of overall survival after TBI surgery (± SD) was 83.0 ± 4.2 months, and the overall in-hospital and 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates were 74.5%, 67.3%, 61.1%, and 57.8%, respectively. These data reveal an increased prevalence of TBI, especially in older patients, and an increased hospital treatment cost but a decreased in-hospital mortality rate. Health care providers and patients should recognize that attributes of the patient and of the hospital may affect hospital resource utilization and the mortality rate. These results are relevant not only to other countries with similar population sizes but also to countries with larger populations.

Wealth Inequality and Mental Disability Among the Chinese Population: A Population Based Study

PubMed Central

Wang, Zhenjie; Du, Wei; Pang, Lihua; Zhang, Lei; Chen, Gong; Zheng, Xiaoying

2015-01-01

In the study described herein, we investigated and explored the association between wealth inequality and the risk of mental disability in the Chinese population. We used nationally represented, population-based data from the second China National Sample Survey on Disability, conducted in 2006. A total of 1,724,398 study subjects between the ages of 15 and 64, including 10,095 subjects with mental disability only, were used for the analysis. Wealth status was estimated by a wealth index that was derived from a principal component analysis of 10 household assets and four other variables related to wealth. Logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for mental disability for each category, with the lowest quintile category as the referent. Confounding variables under consideration were age, gender, residence area, marital status, ethnicity, education, current employment status, household size, house type, homeownership and living arrangement. The distribution of various types and severities of mental disability differed significantly by wealth index category in the present population. Wealth index category had a positive association with mild mental disability (p for trend <0.01), but had a negative association with extremely severe mental disability (p for trend <0.01). Moreover, wealth index category had a significant, inverse association with mental disability when all severities of mental disability were taken into consideration. This study’s results suggest that wealth is a significant factor in the distribution of mental disability and it might have different influences on various types and severities of mental disability. PMID:26492258

Economic impact of a Medicaid population health management program.

PubMed

Rust, George; Strothers, Harry; Miller, William Johnson; McLaren, Susan; Moore, Barbara; Sambamoorthi, Usha

2011-10-01

A population health management program was implemented to assess growth in health care expenditures for the disabled segment of Georgia's Medicaid population before and during the first year of a population health outcomes management program, and to compare those expenditures with projected costs based on various cost inflation trend assumptions. A retrospective, nonexperimental approach was used to analyze claims data from Georgia Medicaid claims files for all program-eligible persons for each relevant time period (intent-to-treat basis). These included all non-Medicare, noninstitutionalized Medicaid aged-blind-disabled adults older than 18 years of age. Comparisons of health care expenditures and utilization were made between base year (2003-2004) and performance year one (2006-2007), and of the difference between actual expenditures incurred in the performance year vs. projected expenditures based on various cost inflation assumptions. Demographic characteristics and clinical complexity of the population (as measured by the Chronic Illness and Disability Payment System risk score) actually increased from baseline to implementation. Actual expenditures were less than projected expenditures using any relevant medical inflation assumption. Actual expenditures were less than projected expenditures by $9.82 million when using a conservative US general medical inflation rate, by $43.6 million using national Medicaid cost trends, and by $106 million using Georgia Medicaid's own cost projections for the non-dually eligible disabled segment of Medicaid enrollees. Quadratic growth curve modeling also demonstrated a lower rate of increase in total expenditures. The rate of increase in expenditures was lower over the first year of program implementation compared with baseline. Weighted utilization rates were also lower in high-cost categories, such as inpatient days, despite increases in the risk profile of the population. Varying levels of cost avoidance could be inferred from differences between actual and projected expenditures using each of the health-related inflation assumptions.

Trends in Stroke Incidence and 28-Day Case Fatality in a Nationwide Stroke Registry of a Multiethnic Asian Population.

PubMed

Tan, Chuen Seng; Müller-Riemenschneider, Falk; Ng, Sheryl Hui Xian; Tan, Pei Zheng; Chan, Bernard P L; Tang, Kok-Foo; Ahmad, Aftab; Kong, Keng He; Chang, Hui Meng; Chow, Khuan Yew; Koh, Gerald Choon-Huat; Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy

2015-10-01

This study investigated trends in stroke incidence and case fatality overall and according to sex, age, ethnicity, and stroke subtype in a multiethnic Asian population. The Singapore Stroke Registry identifies all stroke cases in all public hospitals using medical claims, hospital discharge summaries, and death registry data. Age-standardized incidence rates and 28-day case-fatality rates were calculated for individuals aged ≥15 years between 2006 and 2012. To estimate the annual percentage change of the rates, a linear regression model was fitted to the log rates, and a Wald test was performed to test for trend. P values <0.05 were considered significant. A total of 40 623 cases were recorded. The total stroke incidence fell by ≈12.0%, and case fatality fell by 17.2% in the study. Declining trends in stroke incidence were stronger in women (female: -2.94; 95% confidence interval [CI], -3.43 to -2.44; male: -1.80; 95% CI, -2.58 to -1.02); in the older age groups (≥65 years: -3.62; 95% CI, -4.30 to -2.94; 50-64 years: -1.26; 95% CI, -1.97 to -0.55; <50 years: 3.33; 95% CI, 1.49 to 5.20), in Chinese (-2.64; 95% CI, -3.15 to -2.13), Indians (-3.78; 95% CI, -5.93 to -1.58), and others (-12.73; 95% CI, -18.93 to -6.06) compared with Malays (2.58; 95% CI, 1.17 to 4.02); and in ischemic stroke subtype (ischemic: -2.43; 95% CI, -3.13 to -1.73; hemorrhagic: -1.02; 95% CI, -2.04 to 0.01). Subgroup-specific findings for case fatality were similar. This is the first countrywide hospital-based registry study in a multiethnic Asian population, and it revealed marked overall reductions in stroke incidence and case fatality. However, it also identified important population groups with less favorable trends, especially younger adults and those of Malay ethnicity. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Terrestrial bird population trends on Aguiguan (Goat Island), Mariana Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Amidon, Fred; Camp, Richard J.; Marshall, Ann P.; Pratt, Thane K.; Williams, Laura; Radley, Paul; Cruz, Justine B.

2014-01-01

The island of Aguiguan is part of the Mariana archipelago and currently supports populations of four endemic species, including one endemic genus, Cleptornis. Bird population trends since 1982 were recently assessed on the neighbouring islands of Saipan, Tinian, and Rota indicating declines in some native species. Point-transect surveys were conducted in 2008 by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to assess population densities and trends on Aguiguan. Densities for six of the nine native birds—White-throated Ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura, Collared Kingfisher Todiramphus chloris, Rufous Fantail Rhipidura rufifrons, Golden White-eye Cleptornis marchei, Bridled White-eye Zosterops conspicillatus and Micronesian Starling Aplonis opaca—and the non-native bird—Island Collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata—were significantly greater in 2008 than in 1982. No differences in densities were detected among the surveys for Mariana Fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla, and Micronesian MyzomelaMyzomela rubratra. Three federally and locally listed endangered birds—Nightingale Reed-warbler Acrocephalus luscinius, Mariana Swiftlet Collocalia bartschi, and Micronesian Megapode Megapodius laperous)—were either not detected during the point-transect counts, the surveys were not appropriate for the species, or the numbers of birds detected were too small to estimate densities. The factors behind the increasing trends for some species are unknown but may be related to increased forest cover on the island since 1982. With declining trends for some native species on neighbouring islands, the increasing and stable trends on Aguiguan is good news for forest bird populations in the region, as Aguiguan populations can help support conservation efforts on other islands in the archipelago.

Population demographics, survival, and reporduction: Alaska sea otter research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Monson, Daniel H.; Bodkin, James L.; Doak, D.F.; Estes, James A.; Tinker, M.T.; Siniff, D.B.; Maldini, Daniela; Calkins, Donald; Atkinson, Shannon; Meehan, Rosa

2004-01-01

The fundamental force behind population change is the balance between age-specific survival and reproductive rates. Thus, understanding population demographics is crucial when trying to interpret trends in population change over time. For many species, demographic rates change as the population’s status (i.e., relative to prey resources) varies. Indices of body condition indicative of individual energy reserves can be a useful gauge of population status. Integrated studies designed to measure (1) population trends; (2) current population status; and (3) demographic rates will provide the most complete picture of the factors driving observed population changes. In particular, estimates of age specific survival and reproduction in conjunction with measures of population change can be integrated into population matrix models useful in explaining observed trends. We focus here on the methods used to measure demographic rates in sea otters, and note the importance of comparable methods between studies. Next, we review the current knowledge of the influence of population status on demographic parameters. We end with examples of the power of matrix modeling as a tool to integrate various types of demographic information for detecting otherwise hard to detect changes in demographic parameters.

Is the risk of Alzheimer's disease and dementia declining?

PubMed

Langa, Kenneth M

2015-01-01

The number of older adults with dementia will increase around the world in the decades ahead as populations age. Current estimates suggest that about 4.2 million adults in the US have dementia and that the attributable economic cost of their care is about $200 billion per year. The worldwide dementia prevalence is estimated at 44.3 million people and the total cost at $604 billion per year. It is expected that the worldwide prevalence will triple to 135.5 million by 2050. However, a number of recent population-based studies from countries around the world suggest that the age-specific risk of dementia may be declining, which could help moderate the expected increase in dementia cases that will accompany the growing number of older adults. At least nine recent population-based studies of dementia incidence or prevalence have shown a declining age-specific risk in the US, England, The Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark. A number of factors, especially rising levels of education and more aggressive treatment of key cardiovascular risk factors such as hypertension and hypercholesterolemia, may be leading to improving 'brain health' and declining age-specific risk of Alzheimer's disease and dementia in countries around the world. Multiple epidemiological studies from around the world suggest an optimistic trend of declining population dementia risk in high-income countries over the past 25 years. Rising levels of education and more widespread and successful treatment of key cardiovascular risk factors may be the driving factors accounting for this decline in dementia risk. Whether this optimistic trend will continue in the face of rising worldwide levels of obesity and diabetes and whether this trend is also occurring in low- and middle-income countries are key unanswered questions which will have enormous implications for the extent of the future worldwide impact of Alzheimer's disease and dementia on patients, families, and societies in the decades ahead.

Bronchiectasis-Associated Hospitalizations in Germany, 2005–2011: A Population-Based Study of Disease Burden and Trends

PubMed Central

Ringshausen, Felix C.; de Roux, Andrés; Pletz, Mathias W.; Hämäläinen, Nina; Welte, Tobias; Rademacher, Jessica

2013-01-01

Background Representative population-based data on the epidemiology of bronchiectasis in Europe are limited. The aim of the present study was to investigate the current burden and the trends of bronchiectasis-associated hospitalizations and associated conditions in Germany in order to inform focused patient care and to facilitate the allocation of healthcare resources. Methods The nationwide diagnosis-related groups hospital statistics for the years 2005–2011 were used in order to identify hospitalizations with bronchiectasis as any hospital discharge diagnosis according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision, code J47, (acquired) bronchiectasis. Poisson log-linear regression analysis was used to assess the significance of trends. In addition, the overall length of hospital stay (LOS) and the in-hospital mortality in comparison to the nationwide overall mortality due to bronchiectasis as the primary diagnosis was assessed. Results Overall, 61,838 records with bronchiectasis were extracted from more than 125 million hospitalizations. The average annual age-adjusted rate for bronchiectasis as any diagnosis was 9.4 hospitalizations per 100,000 population. Hospitalization rates increased significantly during the study period, with the highest rate of 39.4 hospitalizations per 100,000 population among men aged 75–84 years and the most pronounced average annual increases among females. Besides numerous bronchiectasis-associated conditions, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) was most frequently found in up to 39.2% of hospitalizations with bronchiectasis as the primary diagnosis. The mean LOS was comparable to that for COPD. Overall, only 40% of bronchiectasis-associated deaths occurred inside the hospital. Conclusions The present study provides evidence of a changing epidemiology and a steadily increasing prevalence of bronchiectasis-associated hospitalizations. Moreover, it confirms the diversity of bronchiectasis-associated conditions and the possible association between bronchiectasis and COPD. As the major burden of disease may be managed out-of-hospital, prospective patient registries are needed to establish the exact prevalence of bronchiectasis according to the specific underlying condition. PMID:23936489

The Use of Google Trends in Health Care Research: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Nuti, Sudhakar V.; Wayda, Brian; Ranasinghe, Isuru; Wang, Sisi; Dreyer, Rachel P.; Chen, Serene I.; Murugiah, Karthik

2014-01-01

Background Google Trends is a novel, freely accessible tool that allows users to interact with Internet search data, which may provide deep insights into population behavior and health-related phenomena. However, there is limited knowledge about its potential uses and limitations. We therefore systematically reviewed health care literature using Google Trends to classify articles by topic and study aim; evaluate the methodology and validation of the tool; and address limitations for its use in research. Methods and Findings PRISMA guidelines were followed. Two independent reviewers systematically identified studies utilizing Google Trends for health care research from MEDLINE and PubMed. Seventy studies met our inclusion criteria. Google Trends publications increased seven-fold from 2009 to 2013. Studies were classified into four topic domains: infectious disease (27% of articles), mental health and substance use (24%), other non-communicable diseases (16%), and general population behavior (33%). By use, 27% of articles utilized Google Trends for casual inference, 39% for description, and 34% for surveillance. Among surveillance studies, 92% were validated against a reference standard data source, and 80% of studies using correlation had a correlation statistic ≥0.70. Overall, 67% of articles provided a rationale for their search input. However, only 7% of articles were reproducible based on complete documentation of search strategy. We present a checklist to facilitate appropriate methodological documentation for future studies. A limitation of the study is the challenge of classifying heterogeneous studies utilizing a novel data source. Conclusion Google Trends is being used to study health phenomena in a variety of topic domains in myriad ways. However, poor documentation of methods precludes the reproducibility of the findings. Such documentation would enable other researchers to determine the consistency of results provided by Google Trends for a well-specified query over time. Furthermore, greater transparency can improve its reliability as a research tool. PMID:25337815

The use of google trends in health care research: a systematic review.

PubMed

Nuti, Sudhakar V; Wayda, Brian; Ranasinghe, Isuru; Wang, Sisi; Dreyer, Rachel P; Chen, Serene I; Murugiah, Karthik

2014-01-01

Google Trends is a novel, freely accessible tool that allows users to interact with Internet search data, which may provide deep insights into population behavior and health-related phenomena. However, there is limited knowledge about its potential uses and limitations. We therefore systematically reviewed health care literature using Google Trends to classify articles by topic and study aim; evaluate the methodology and validation of the tool; and address limitations for its use in research. PRISMA guidelines were followed. Two independent reviewers systematically identified studies utilizing Google Trends for health care research from MEDLINE and PubMed. Seventy studies met our inclusion criteria. Google Trends publications increased seven-fold from 2009 to 2013. Studies were classified into four topic domains: infectious disease (27% of articles), mental health and substance use (24%), other non-communicable diseases (16%), and general population behavior (33%). By use, 27% of articles utilized Google Trends for casual inference, 39% for description, and 34% for surveillance. Among surveillance studies, 92% were validated against a reference standard data source, and 80% of studies using correlation had a correlation statistic ≥0.70. Overall, 67% of articles provided a rationale for their search input. However, only 7% of articles were reproducible based on complete documentation of search strategy. We present a checklist to facilitate appropriate methodological documentation for future studies. A limitation of the study is the challenge of classifying heterogeneous studies utilizing a novel data source. Google Trends is being used to study health phenomena in a variety of topic domains in myriad ways. However, poor documentation of methods precludes the reproducibility of the findings. Such documentation would enable other researchers to determine the consistency of results provided by Google Trends for a well-specified query over time. Furthermore, greater transparency can improve its reliability as a research tool.

Population and harvest trends of big game and small game species: a technical document supporting the USDA Forest Service Interim Update of the 2000 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

Curtis H. Flather; Michael S. Knowles; Stephen J. Brady

2009-01-01

This technical document supports the Forest Service's requirement to assess the status of renewable natural resources as mandated by the Forest and Rangeland Renewable Resources Planning Act of 1974 (RPA). It updates past reports on national and regional trends in population and harvest estimates for species classified as big game and small game. The trends...

Coral proxy record of decadal-scale reduction in base flow from Moloka'i, Hawaii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prouty, Nancy G.; Jupiter, Stacy D.; Field, Michael E.; McCulloch, Malcolm T.

2009-01-01

Groundwater is a major resource in Hawaii and is the principal source of water for municipal, agricultural, and industrial use. With a growing population, a long-term downward trend in rainfall, and the need for proper groundwater management, a better understanding of the hydroclimatological system is essential. Proxy records from corals can supplement long-term observational networks, offering an accessible source of hydrologic and climate information. To develop a qualitative proxy for historic groundwater discharge to coastal waters, a suite of rare earth elements and yttrium (REYs) were analyzed from coral cores collected along the south shore of Moloka'i, Hawaii. The coral REY to calcium (Ca) ratios were evaluated against hydrological parameters, yielding the strongest relationship to base flow. Dissolution of REYs from labradorite and olivine in the basaltic rock aquifers is likely the primary source of coastal ocean REYs. There was a statistically significant downward trend (−40%) in subannually resolved REY/Ca ratios over the last century. This is consistent with long-term records of stream discharge from Moloka'i, which imply a downward trend in base flow since 1913. A decrease in base flow is observed statewide, consistent with the long-term downward trend in annual rainfall over much of the state. With greater demands on freshwater resources, it is appropriate for withdrawal scenarios to consider long-term trends and short-term climate variability. It is possible that coral paleohydrological records can be used to conduct model-data comparisons in groundwater flow models used to simulate changes in groundwater level and coastal discharge.

30-Year Trends in Stroke Rates and Outcome in Auckland, New Zealand (1981-2012): A Multi-Ethnic Population-Based Series of Studies

PubMed Central

Feigin, Valery L.; Krishnamurthi, Rita V.; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; McPherson, Kathryn M.; Barber, P. Alan; Parag, Varsha; Arroll, Bruce; Bennett, Derrick A.; Tobias, Martin; Jones, Amy; Witt, Emma; Brown, Paul; Abbott, Max; Bhattacharjee, Rohit; Rush, Elaine; Suh, Flora Minsun; Theadom, Alice; Rathnasabapathy, Yogini; Te Ao, Braden; Parmar, Priya G.; Anderson, Craig; Bonita, Ruth

2015-01-01

Background Insufficient data exist on population-based trends in morbidity and mortality to determine the success of prevention strategies and improvements in health care delivery in stroke. The aim of this study was to determine trends in incidence and outcome (1-year mortality, 28-day case-fatality) in relation to management and risk factors for stroke in the multi-ethnic population of Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) over 30-years. Methods Four stroke incidence population-based register studies were undertaken in adult residents (aged ≥15 years) of Auckland NZ in 1981–1982, 1991–1992, 2002–2003 and 2011–2012. All used standard World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria and multiple overlapping sources of case-ascertainment for hospitalised and non-hospitalised, fatal and non-fatal, new stroke events. Ethnicity was consistently self-identified into four major groups. Crude and age-adjusted (WHO world population standard) annual incidence and mortality with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated per 100,000 people, assuming a Poisson distribution. Results 5400 new stroke patients were registered in four 12 month recruitment phases over the 30-year study period; 79% were NZ/European, 6% Māori, 8% Pacific people, and 7% were of Asian or other origin. Overall stroke incidence and 1-year mortality decreased by 23% (95% CI 5%-31%) and 62% (95% CI 36%-86%), respectively, from 1981 to 2012. Whilst stroke incidence and mortality declined across all groups in NZ from 1991, Māori and Pacific groups had the slowest rate of decline and continue to experience stroke at a significantly younger age (mean ages 60 and 62 years, respectively) compared with NZ/Europeans (mean age 75 years). There was also a decline in 28-day stroke case fatality (overall by 14%, 95% CI 11%-17%) across all ethnic groups from 1981 to 2012. However, there were significant increases in the frequencies of pre-morbid hypertension, myocardial infarction, and diabetes mellitus, but a reduction in frequency of current smoking among stroke patients. Conclusions In this unique temporal series of studies spanning 30 years, stroke incidence, early case-fatality and 1-year mortality have declined, but ethnic disparities in risk and outcome for stroke persisted suggesting that primary stroke prevention remains crucial to reducing the burden of this disease. PMID:26291829

30-Year Trends in Stroke Rates and Outcome in Auckland, New Zealand (1981-2012): A Multi-Ethnic Population-Based Series of Studies.

PubMed

Feigin, Valery L; Krishnamurthi, Rita V; Barker-Collo, Suzanne; McPherson, Kathryn M; Barber, P Alan; Parag, Varsha; Arroll, Bruce; Bennett, Derrick A; Tobias, Martin; Jones, Amy; Witt, Emma; Brown, Paul; Abbott, Max; Bhattacharjee, Rohit; Rush, Elaine; Suh, Flora Minsun; Theadom, Alice; Rathnasabapathy, Yogini; Te Ao, Braden; Parmar, Priya G; Anderson, Craig; Bonita, Ruth

2015-01-01

Insufficient data exist on population-based trends in morbidity and mortality to determine the success of prevention strategies and improvements in health care delivery in stroke. The aim of this study was to determine trends in incidence and outcome (1-year mortality, 28-day case-fatality) in relation to management and risk factors for stroke in the multi-ethnic population of Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) over 30-years. Four stroke incidence population-based register studies were undertaken in adult residents (aged ≥15 years) of Auckland NZ in 1981-1982, 1991-1992, 2002-2003 and 2011-2012. All used standard World Health Organization (WHO) diagnostic criteria and multiple overlapping sources of case-ascertainment for hospitalised and non-hospitalised, fatal and non-fatal, new stroke events. Ethnicity was consistently self-identified into four major groups. Crude and age-adjusted (WHO world population standard) annual incidence and mortality with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated per 100,000 people, assuming a Poisson distribution. 5400 new stroke patients were registered in four 12 month recruitment phases over the 30-year study period; 79% were NZ/European, 6% Māori, 8% Pacific people, and 7% were of Asian or other origin. Overall stroke incidence and 1-year mortality decreased by 23% (95% CI 5%-31%) and 62% (95% CI 36%-86%), respectively, from 1981 to 2012. Whilst stroke incidence and mortality declined across all groups in NZ from 1991, Māori and Pacific groups had the slowest rate of decline and continue to experience stroke at a significantly younger age (mean ages 60 and 62 years, respectively) compared with NZ/Europeans (mean age 75 years). There was also a decline in 28-day stroke case fatality (overall by 14%, 95% CI 11%-17%) across all ethnic groups from 1981 to 2012. However, there were significant increases in the frequencies of pre-morbid hypertension, myocardial infarction, and diabetes mellitus, but a reduction in frequency of current smoking among stroke patients. In this unique temporal series of studies spanning 30 years, stroke incidence, early case-fatality and 1-year mortality have declined, but ethnic disparities in risk and outcome for stroke persisted suggesting that primary stroke prevention remains crucial to reducing the burden of this disease.

Cancer incidence and mortality in Serbia 1999–2009

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Despite the increase in cancer incidence in the last years in Serbia, no nation-wide, population-based cancer epidemiology data have been reported. In this study cancer incidence and mortality rates for Serbia are presented using nation-wide data from two population-based cancer registries. These rates are additionally compared to European and global cancer epidemiology estimates. Finally, predictions on Serbian cancer incidence and mortality rates are provided. Methods Cancer incidence and mortality was collected from the cancer registries of Central Serbia and Vojvodina from 1999 to 2009. Using age-specific regression models, we estimated time trends and predictions for cancer incidence and mortality for the following five years (2010–2014). The comparison of Serbian with European and global cancer incidence/mortality rates, adjusted to the world population (ASR-W) was performed using Serbian population-based data and estimates from GLOBOCAN 2008. Results Increasing trends in both overall cancer incidence and mortality rates were identified for Serbia. In men, lung cancer showed the highest incidence (ASR-W 2009: 70.8/100,000), followed by colorectal (ASR-W 2009: 39.9/100,000), prostate (ASR-W 2009: 29.1/100,000) and bladder cancer (ASR-W 2009: 16.2/100,000). Breast cancer was the most common form of cancer in women (ASR-W 2009: 70.8/100,000) followed by cervical (ASR-W 2009: 25.5/100,000), colorectal (ASR-W 2009: 21.1/100,000) and lung cancer (ASR-W 2009: 19.4/100,000). Prostate and colorectal cancers have been significantly increasing over the last years in men, while this was also observed for breast cancer incidence and lung cancer mortality in women. In 2008 Serbia had the highest mortality rate from breast cancer (ASR-W 2008: 22.7/100,000), among all European countries while incidence and mortality of cervical, lung and colorectal cancer were well above European estimates. Conclusion Cancer incidence and mortality in Serbia has been generally increasing over the past years. For a number of cancer sites, incidence and mortality is alarmingly higher than in the majority of European regions. For this increasing trend to be controlled, the management of risk factors that are present among the Serbian population is necessary. Additionally, prevention and early diagnosis are areas where significant improvements could still be made. PMID:23320890

Cancer incidence and mortality in Serbia 1999-2009.

PubMed

Mihajlović, Jovan; Pechlivanoglou, Petros; Miladinov-Mikov, Marica; Zivković, Snežana; Postma, Maarten J

2013-01-15

Despite the increase in cancer incidence in the last years in Serbia, no nation-wide, population-based cancer epidemiology data have been reported. In this study cancer incidence and mortality rates for Serbia are presented using nation-wide data from two population-based cancer registries. These rates are additionally compared to European and global cancer epidemiology estimates. Finally, predictions on Serbian cancer incidence and mortality rates are provided. Cancer incidence and mortality was collected from the cancer registries of Central Serbia and Vojvodina from 1999 to 2009. Using age-specific regression models, we estimated time trends and predictions for cancer incidence and mortality for the following five years (2010-2014). The comparison of Serbian with European and global cancer incidence/mortality rates, adjusted to the world population (ASR-W) was performed using Serbian population-based data and estimates from GLOBOCAN 2008. Increasing trends in both overall cancer incidence and mortality rates were identified for Serbia. In men, lung cancer showed the highest incidence (ASR-W 2009: 70.8/100,000), followed by colorectal (ASR-W 2009: 39.9/100,000), prostate (ASR-W 2009: 29.1/100,000) and bladder cancer (ASR-W 2009: 16.2/100,000). Breast cancer was the most common form of cancer in women (ASR-W 2009: 70.8/100,000) followed by cervical (ASR-W 2009: 25.5/100,000), colorectal (ASR-W 2009: 21.1/100,000) and lung cancer (ASR-W 2009: 19.4/100,000). Prostate and colorectal cancers have been significantly increasing over the last years in men, while this was also observed for breast cancer incidence and lung cancer mortality in women. In 2008 Serbia had the highest mortality rate from breast cancer (ASR-W 2008: 22.7/100,000), among all European countries while incidence and mortality of cervical, lung and colorectal cancer were well above European estimates. Cancer incidence and mortality in Serbia has been generally increasing over the past years. For a number of cancer sites, incidence and mortality is alarmingly higher than in the majority of European regions. For this increasing trend to be controlled, the management of risk factors that are present among the Serbian population is necessary. Additionally, prevention and early diagnosis are areas where significant improvements could still be made.

Trends in Regionalization of Care for ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction.

PubMed

Hsia, Renee Y; Sabbagh, Sarah; Sarkar, Nandita; Sporer, Karl; Rokos, Ivan C; Brown, John F; Brindis, Ralph G; Guo, Joanna; Shen, Yu-Chu

2017-10-01

California has led successful regionalized efforts for several time-critical medical conditions, including ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), but no specific mandated protocols exist to define regionalization of care. We aimed to study the trends in regionalization of care for STEMI patients in the state of California and to examine the differences in patient demographic, hospital, and county trends. Using survey responses collected from all California emergency medical services (EMS) agencies, we developed four categories - no, partial, substantial, and complete regionalization - to capture prehospital and inter-hospital components of regionalization in each EMS agency's jurisdiction between 2005-2014. We linked the survey responses to 2006 California non-public hospital discharge data to study the patient distribution at baseline. STEMI regionalization-of-care networks steadily developed across California. Only 14% of counties were regionalized in 2006, accounting for 42% of California's STEMI patient population, but over half of these counties, representing 86% of California's STEMI patient population, reached complete regionalization in 2014. We did not find any dramatic differences in underlying patient characteristics based on regionalization status; however, differences in hospital characteristics were relatively substantial. Potential barriers to achieving regionalization included competition, hospital ownership, population density, and financial challenges. Minimal differences in patient characteristics can establish that patient differences unlikely played any role in influencing earlier or later regionalization and can provide a framework for future analyses evaluating the impact of regionalization on patient outcomes.

Differences in incidence and trends of haematological malignancies in Japan and the United States

PubMed Central

Chihara, Dai; Ito, Hidemi; Matsuda, Tomohiro; Shibata, Akiko; Katsumi, Akira; Nakamura, Shigeo; Tomotaka, Sobue; Morton, Lindsay M; Weisenburger, Dennis D; Matsuo, Keitaro

2014-01-01

The incidence of a malignant disease reflects the genetic and cumulative exposure to the environment of a population. Therefore, evaluation of the incidence and trends of a disease in different populations may provide insights into its aetiology and pathogenesis. To evaluate the incidence of haematological malignancies according to specific subtypes, we used population-based registry data in Japan (N = 125 148) and the United States (US; N = 172 925) from 1993 to 2008. The age-adjusted incidence of haematological malignancies in Japan was approximately one-half that in the US but has been increasing significantly, whereas no significant change was seen in the US [annual percent change (95% C confidence interval): Japan, +2·4% (1·7, 3·1); US, +0·1% (−0·1, 0·2)]. Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) showed the largest differences in incidence, with the most remarkable differences observed for chronic lymphocytic leukaemia, HL-nodular sclerosis, mycosis fungoides and cutaneous T-cell lymphoma. HL and NHL are increasing substantially in Japan but not in the US, suggesting that environmental exposures, such as Westernization of the life style may be causing this increase. Differences in the incidence and trends for specific subtypes also showed a marked contrast across subtypes, which, in turn, may provide significant new insights into disease aetiology in the future. PMID:24245986

Impact of national cancer policies on cancer survival trends and socioeconomic inequalities in England, 1996-2013: population based study

PubMed Central

Rachet, Bernard; Belot, Aurélien; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective To assess the effectiveness of the NHS Cancer Plan (2000) and subsequent national cancer policy initiatives in improving cancer survival and reducing socioeconomic inequalities in survival in England. Design Population based cohort study. Setting England. Population More than 3.5 million registered patients aged 15-99 with a diagnosis of one of the 24 most common primary, malignant, invasive neoplasms between 1996 and 2013. Main outcome measures Age standardised net survival estimates by cancer, sex, year, and deprivation group. These estimates were modelled using regression model with splines to explore changes in the cancer survival trends and in the socioeconomic inequalities in survival. Results One year net survival improved steadily from 1996 for 26 of 41 sex-cancer combinations studied, and only from 2001 or 2006 for four cancers. Trends in survival accelerated after 2006 for five cancers. The deprivation gap observed for all 41 sex-cancer combinations among patients with a diagnosis in 1996 persisted until 2013. However, the gap slightly decreased for six cancers among men for which one year survival was more than 65% in 1996, and for cervical and uterine cancers, for which survival was more than 75% in 1996. The deprivation gap widened notably for brain tumours in men and for lung cancer in women. Conclusions Little evidence was found of a direct impact of national cancer strategies on one year survival, and no evidence for a reduction in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival. These findings emphasise that socioeconomic inequalities in survival remain a major public health problem for a healthcare system founded on equity. PMID:29540358

Projected trends in high-mortality heatwaves under different scenarios of climate, population, and adaptation in 82 US communities.

PubMed

Anderson, G Brooke; Oleson, Keith W; Jones, Bryan; Peng, Roger D

2018-02-01

Some rare heatwaves have extreme daily mortality impacts; moderate heatwaves have lower daily impacts but occur much more frequently at present and so account for large aggregated impacts. We applied health-based models to project trends in high-mortality heatwaves, including proportion of all heatwaves expected to be high-mortality, using the definition that a high-mortality heatwave increases mortality risk by ≥20 %. We projected these trends in 82 US communities in 2061-2080 under two scenarios of climate change (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), two scenarios of population change (SSP3, SSP5), and three scenarios of community adaptation to heat (none, lagged, on-pace) for large- and medium-ensemble versions of the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Community Earth System Model. More high-mortality heatwaves were expected compared to present under all scenarios except on-pace adaptation, and population exposure was expected to increase under all scenarios. At least seven more high-mortality heatwaves were expected in a twenty-year period in the 82 study communities under RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 when assuming no adaptation. However, high-mortality heatwaves were expected to remain <1 % of all heatwaves and heatwave exposure under all scenarios. Projections were most strongly influenced by the adaptation scenario- going from a scenario of on-pace to lagged adaptation or from lagged to no adaptation more than doubled the projected number of and exposure to high-mortality heatwaves. Based on our results, fewer high-mortality heatwaves are expected when following RCP4.5 versus RCP8.5 and under higher levels of adaptation, but high-mortality heatwaves are expected to remain a very small proportion of total heatwave exposure.

Trends and regional variations in provision of contraception methods in a commercially insured population in the United States based on nationally proposed measures.

PubMed

Law, A; Yu, J S; Wang, W; Lin, J; Lynen, R

2017-09-01

Three measures to assess the provision of effective contraception methods among reproductive-aged women have recently been endorsed for national public reporting. Based on these measures, this study examined real-world trends and regional variations of contraceptive provision in a commercially insured population in the United States. Women 15-44years old with continuous enrollment in each year from 2005 to 2014 were identified from a commercial claims database. In accordance with the proposed measures, percentages of women (a) provided most effective or moderately effective (MEME) methods of contraception and (b) provided a long-acting reversible contraceptive (LARC) method were calculated in two populations: women at risk for unintended pregnancy and women who had a live birth within 3 and 60days of delivery. During the 10-year period, the percentages of women at risk for unintended pregnancy provided MEME contraceptive methods increased among 15-20-year-olds (24.5%-35.9%) and 21-44-year-olds (26.2%-31.5%), and those provided a LARC method also increased among 15-20-year-olds (0.1%-2.4%) and 21-44-year-olds (0.8%-3.9%). Provision of LARC methods increased most in the North Central and West among both age groups of women. Provision of MEME contraceptives and LARC methods to women who had a live birth within 60days postpartum also increased across age groups and regions. This assessment indicates an overall trend of increasing provision of MEME contraceptive methods in the commercial sector, albeit with age group and regional variations. If implemented, these proposed measures may have impacts on health plan contraceptive access policy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Air pollution from industrial waste gas emissions is associated with cancer incidences in Shanghai, China.

PubMed

Cong, Xiaowei

2018-05-01

Outdoor air pollution may be associated with cancer risk at different sites. This study sought to investigate outdoor air pollution from waste gas emission effects on multiple cancer incidences in a retrospective population-based study in Shanghai, China. Trends in cancer incidence for males and females and trends in waste gas emissions for the total waste gas, industrial waste gas, other waste gas, SO 2 , and soot were investigated between 1983 and 2010 in Shanghai, China. Regression models after adjusting for confounding variables were constructed to estimate associations between waste gas emissions and multiple cancer incidences in the whole group and stratified by sex, Engel coefficient, life expectancy, and number of doctors per 10,000 populations to further explore whether changes of waste gas emissions were associated with multiple cancer incidences. More than 550,000 new cancer patients were enrolled and reviewed. Upward trends in multiple cancer incidences for males and females and in waste gas emissions were observed from 1983 to 2010 in Shanghai, China. Waste gas emissions came mainly from industrial waste gas. Waste gas emissions was significantly positively associated with cancer incidence of salivary gland, small intestine, colorectal, anus, gallbladder, thoracic organs, connective and soft tissue, prostate, kidney, bladder, thyroid, non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, lymphatic leukemia, myeloid leukemia, and other unspecified sites (all p < 0.05). Negative association between waste gas emissions and the esophagus cancer incidence was observed (p < 0.05). The results of the whole group were basically consistent with the results of the stratified analysis. The results from this retrospective population-based study suggest ambient air pollution from waste gas emissions was associated with multiple cancer incidences.

Trends in standardized mortality among individuals with schizophrenia, 1993-2012: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Gatov, Evgenia; Rosella, Laura; Chiu, Maria; Kurdyak, Paul A

2017-09-18

We examined mortality time trends and premature mortality among individuals with and without schizophrenia over a 20-year period. In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified all individual deaths that occurred in Ontario between 1993 and 2012 in persons aged 15 and over. We plotted overall and cause-specific age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), stratified all-cause ASMR trends by sociodemographic characteristics, and analyzed premature mortality using years of potential life lost. Additionally, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) using negative binomial regression with adjustment for age, sex, income, rurality and year of death. We identified 31 349 deaths among persons with schizophrenia, and 1 589 902 deaths among those without schizophrenia. Mortality rates among people with schizophrenia were 3 times higher than among those without schizophrenia (adjusted MRR 3.12, 95% confidence interval 3.06-3.17). All-cause ASMRs in both groups declined in parallel over the study period, by about 35%, and were higher for men, for those with low income and for rural dwellers. The absolute ASMR difference also declined throughout the study period (from 16.15 to 10.49 deaths per 1000 persons). Cause-specific ASMRs were greater among those with schizophrenia, with circulatory conditions accounting for most deaths between 1993 and 2012, whereas neoplasms became the leading cause of death for those without schizophrenia after 2005. Individuals with schizophrenia also died, on average, 8 years younger than those without schizophrenia, losing more potential years of life. Although mortality rates among people with schizophrenia have declined over the past 2 decades, specialized approaches may be required to close the persistent 3-fold relative mortality gap with the general population. © 2017 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.

Trends in standardized mortality among individuals with schizophrenia, 1993–2012: a population-based, repeated cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Gatov, Evgenia; Rosella, Laura; Chiu, Maria; Kurdyak, Paul A.

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND: We examined mortality time trends and premature mortality among individuals with and without schizophrenia over a 20-year period. METHODS: In this population-based, repeated cross-sectional study, we identified all individual deaths that occurred in Ontario between 1993 and 2012 in persons aged 15 and over. We plotted overall and cause-specific age- and sex-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs), stratified all-cause ASMR trends by sociodemographic characteristics, and analyzed premature mortality using years of potential life lost. Additionally, we calculated mortality rate ratios (MRRs) using negative binomial regression with adjustment for age, sex, income, rurality and year of death. RESULTS: We identified 31 349 deaths among persons with schizophrenia, and 1 589 902 deaths among those without schizophrenia. Mortality rates among people with schizophrenia were 3 times higher than among those without schizophrenia (adjusted MRR 3.12, 95% confidence interval 3.06–3.17). All-cause ASMRs in both groups declined in parallel over the study period, by about 35%, and were higher for men, for those with low income and for rural dwellers. The absolute ASMR difference also declined throughout the study period (from 16.15 to 10.49 deaths per 1000 persons). Cause-specific ASMRs were greater among those with schizophrenia, with circulatory conditions accounting for most deaths between 1993 and 2012, whereas neoplasms became the leading cause of death for those without schizophrenia after 2005. Individuals with schizophrenia also died, on average, 8 years younger than those without schizophrenia, losing more potential years of life. INTERPRETATION: Although mortality rates among people with schizophrenia have declined over the past 2 decades, specialized approaches may be required to close the persistent 3-fold relative mortality gap with the general population. PMID:28923795

No increase in the incidence of acute kidney injury in a population-based annual temporal trends epidemiology study.

PubMed

Kashani, Kianoush; Shao, Min; Li, Guangxi; Williams, Amy W; Rule, Andrew D; Kremers, Walter K; Malinchoc, Michael; Gajic, Ognjen; Lieske, John C

2017-09-01

Recent literature suggests an increase in the incidence of acute kidney injury (AKI). We evaluated population-based trends of AKI over the course of nine years, using a validated electronic health record tool to detect AKI. All adult residents (18 years of age and older) of Olmsted County, Minnesota (MN), admitted to the Mayo Clinic Hospital between 2006 and 2014 were included. The incidence rate of AKI was calculated and temporal trends in the annual AKI incident rates assessed. During the nine-year study period, 10,283, and 41,847 patients were admitted to the intensive care unit or general ward, with 1,740 and 2,811 developing AKI, respectively. The unadjusted incidence rates were 186 and 287 per 100,000 person years in 2006 and reached 179 and 317 per 100,000 person years in 2014. Following adjustment for age and sex, there was no significant change in the annual AKI incidence rate during the study period with a Relative Risk of 0.99 per year (95% confidence interval 0.97-1.01) for intensive care unit patients and 0.993 per year (0.98-1.01) for the general ward patients. Similar results were obtained when the ICD-9 codes or administrative data for dialysis-requiring AKI was utilized to determine incident cases. Thus, despite the current literature that suggests an epidemic of AKI, we found that after adjusting for age and sex the incidence of AKI in the general population remained relatively stable over the last decade. Copyright © 2017 International Society of Nephrology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tuning the Voices of a Choir: Detecting Ecological Gradients in Time-Series Populations.

PubMed

Buras, Allan; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke; van der Maaten, Ernst; Ahlgrimm, Svenja; Hermann, Philipp; Simard, Sonia; Heinrich, Ingo; Helle, Gerd; Unterseher, Martin; Schnittler, Martin; Eusemann, Pascal; Wilmking, Martin

2016-01-01

This paper introduces a new approach-the Principal Component Gradient Analysis (PCGA)-to detect ecological gradients in time-series populations, i.e. several time-series originating from different individuals of a population. Detection of ecological gradients is of particular importance when dealing with time-series from heterogeneous populations which express differing trends. PCGA makes use of polar coordinates of loadings from the first two axes obtained by principal component analysis (PCA) to define groups of similar trends. Based on the mean inter-series correlation (rbar) the gain of increasing a common underlying signal by PCGA groups is quantified using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of validation PCGA is compared to three other existing approaches. Focusing on dendrochronological examples, PCGA is shown to correctly determine population gradients and in particular cases to be advantageous over other considered methods. Furthermore, PCGA groups in each example allowed for enhancing the strength of a common underlying signal and comparably well as hierarchical cluster analysis. Our results indicate that PCGA potentially allows for a better understanding of mechanisms causing time-series population gradients as well as objectively enhancing the performance of climate transfer functions in dendroclimatology. While our examples highlight the relevance of PCGA to the field of dendrochronology, we believe that also other disciplines working with data of comparable structure may benefit from PCGA.

Tuning the Voices of a Choir: Detecting Ecological Gradients in Time-Series Populations

PubMed Central

Buras, Allan; van der Maaten-Theunissen, Marieke; van der Maaten, Ernst; Ahlgrimm, Svenja; Hermann, Philipp; Simard, Sonia; Heinrich, Ingo; Helle, Gerd; Unterseher, Martin; Schnittler, Martin; Eusemann, Pascal; Wilmking, Martin

2016-01-01

This paper introduces a new approach–the Principal Component Gradient Analysis (PCGA)–to detect ecological gradients in time-series populations, i.e. several time-series originating from different individuals of a population. Detection of ecological gradients is of particular importance when dealing with time-series from heterogeneous populations which express differing trends. PCGA makes use of polar coordinates of loadings from the first two axes obtained by principal component analysis (PCA) to define groups of similar trends. Based on the mean inter-series correlation (rbar) the gain of increasing a common underlying signal by PCGA groups is quantified using Monte Carlo Simulations. In terms of validation PCGA is compared to three other existing approaches. Focusing on dendrochronological examples, PCGA is shown to correctly determine population gradients and in particular cases to be advantageous over other considered methods. Furthermore, PCGA groups in each example allowed for enhancing the strength of a common underlying signal and comparably well as hierarchical cluster analysis. Our results indicate that PCGA potentially allows for a better understanding of mechanisms causing time-series population gradients as well as objectively enhancing the performance of climate transfer functions in dendroclimatology. While our examples highlight the relevance of PCGA to the field of dendrochronology, we believe that also other disciplines working with data of comparable structure may benefit from PCGA. PMID:27467508

Changes in mortality rates and causes of death in a population-based cohort of persons living with and without HIV from 1996 to 2012.

PubMed

Eyawo, Oghenowede; Franco-Villalobos, Conrado; Hull, Mark W; Nohpal, Adriana; Samji, Hasina; Sereda, Paul; Lima, Viviane D; Shoveller, Jeannie; Moore, David; Montaner, Julio S G; Hogg, Robert S

2017-02-27

Non-HIV/AIDS-related diseases are gaining prominence as important causes of morbidity and mortality among people living with HIV. The purpose of this study was to characterize and compare changes over time in mortality rates and causes of death among a population-based cohort of persons living with and without HIV in British Columbia (BC), Canada. We analysed data from the Comparative Outcomes And Service Utilization Trends (COAST) study; a retrospective population-based study created via linkage between the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS and Population Data BC, and containing data for HIV-infected individuals and the general population of BC, respectively. Our analysis included all known HIV-infected adults (≥ 20 years) in BC and a random 10% sample of uninfected BC adults followed from 1996 to 2012. Deaths were identified through Population Data BC - which contains information on all registered deaths in BC (BC Vital Statistics Agency dataset) and classified into cause of death categories using International Classification of Diseases (ICD) 9/10 codes. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) and mortality rate ratios were calculated. Trend test were performed. 3401 (25%), and 47,647 (9%) individuals died during the 5,620,150 person-years of follow-up among 13,729 HIV-infected and 510,313 uninfected individuals, respectively. All-cause and cause-specific mortality rates were consistently higher among HIV-infected compared to HIV-negative individuals, except for neurological disorders. All-cause ASMR decreased from 126.75 (95% CI: 84.92-168.57) per 1000 population in 1996 to 21.29 (95% CI: 17.79-24.79) in 2011-2012 (83% decline; p < 0.001 for trend), compared to a change from 7.97 (95% CI: 7.61-8.33) to 6.87 (95% CI: 6.70-7.04) among uninfected individuals (14% decline; p < 0.001). Mortality rates from HIV/AIDS-related causes decreased by 94% from 103.85 per 1000 population in 1996 to 6.72 by the 2011-2012 era (p < 0.001). Significant ASMR reductions were also observed for hepatic/liver disease and drug abuse/overdose deaths. ASMRs for neurological disorders increased significantly over time. Non-AIDS-defining cancers are currently the leading non-HIV/AIDS-related cause of death in both HIV-infected and uninfected individuals. Despite the significant mortality rate reductions observed among HIV-infected individuals from 1996 to 2012, they still have excess mortality risk compared to uninfected individuals. Additional efforts are needed to promote effective risk factor management and appropriate screening measures among people living with HIV.

Trends in scale and shape of survival curves.

PubMed

Weon, Byung Mook; Je, Jung Ho

2012-01-01

The ageing of the population is an issue in wealthy countries worldwide because of increasing costs for health care and welfare. Survival curves taken from demographic life tables may help shed light on the hypotheses that humans are living longer and that human populations are growing older. We describe a methodology that enables us to obtain separate measurements of scale and shape variances in survival curves. Specifically, 'living longer' is associated with the scale variance of survival curves, whereas 'growing older' is associated with the shape variance. We show how the scale and shape of survival curves have changed over time during recent decades, based on period and cohort female life tables for selected wealthy countries. Our methodology will be useful for performing better tracking of ageing statistics and it is possible that this methodology can help identify the causes of current trends in human ageing.

Estimation Study of New Cancer Cases and Deaths in Wuwei, Hexi Corridor Region, China, 2018.

PubMed

Cao, Bo Yu; Li, Cheng Yun; Xu, Feng Lan; Liu, Xiao Qin; Yang, Yan Xu; Li, Jing; Gao, Cai Yun; Rong, You Ming; Li, Rong Cheng; Li, Ya Li; Zheng, Shan; Bai, Ya Na; Ye, Yan Cheng

2017-11-01

Population-based cancer registration data were collected to estimate the cancer incidence and mortality in Wuwei, Hexi Corridor Region, China in 2018. We used the 2011-2013 data to predict the number of new cases and deaths in 2018 and the 2003-2013 data to analyze trends in cancer incidence and mortality. The goal is to enable cancer prevention and control directions. Our results indicated that stomach cancer is the most common cancer. For all cancers combined, the incidence and mortality rates showed significantly increasing trends (+2.63% per year; P < 0.05 and +1.9% per year; P < 0.05). This study revealed a significant cancer burden among the population of this area. Cancer screening and prevention should be performed after an epidemiological study of the cause of the cancer is completed. Copyright © 2017 The Editorial Board of Biomedical and Environmental Sciences. Published by China CDC. All rights reserved.

Health tourism on the rise? Evidence from the Balance of Payments Statistics.

PubMed

Loh, Chung-Ping A

2014-09-01

The study assesses the presence and magnitude of global trends in health tourism using health-related travel (HRT) spending reported in the International Monetary Fund's Balance of Payments Statistics database. Linear regression and quantile regression are applied to estimate secular trends of the import and export of HRT based on a sample of countries from 2003 to 2009. The results show that from 2003 to 2009 the import and export of health tourism rose among countries with a high volume of such activities (accounting for the upper 40% of the countries), but not among those with a low volume. The uneven growth in health tourism has generated greater contrast between countries with high and low volumes of health tourism activities. However, the growth in the total import of health tourism did not outpace the population growth, implying that in general the population's tendency to engage in health tourism remained static.

The global burden of obesity and the challenges of prevention.

PubMed

Seidell, Jacob C; Halberstadt, Jutka

2015-01-01

The prevalence of obesity is increasing at an alarming rate in many parts of the world. About 2 billion people are overweight and one third of them obese. The plight of the most affected populations, like those in high-income countries in North America, Australasia and Europe, has been well publicized. However, the more recent increases in population obesity in low- and middle-income countries that are now increasingly being observed have been less recognized. Based on the existing prevalence and trend data and the epidemiological evidence linking obesity with a range of physical and psychosocial health conditions, it is reasonable to describe obesity as a public health crisis that severely impairs the health and quality of life of people and adds considerably to national health-care budgets. Intersectoral action to manage and prevent obesity is urgently required to reverse current trends.

A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians

PubMed Central

Thessen, Anne E.; Arias-Caballero, Paulina; Ayala-Orozco, Bárbara

2014-01-01

Background. Mexico has the world’s fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species’ risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats. Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions. Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species. PMID:25548736

A statistical assessment of population trends for data deficient Mexican amphibians.

PubMed

Quintero, Esther; Thessen, Anne E; Arias-Caballero, Paulina; Ayala-Orozco, Bárbara

2014-01-01

Background. Mexico has the world's fifth largest population of amphibians and the second country with the highest quantity of threatened amphibian species. About 10% of Mexican amphibians lack enough data to be assigned to a risk category by the IUCN, so in this paper we want to test a statistical tool that, in the absence of specific demographic data, can assess a species' risk of extinction, population trend, and to better understand which variables increase their vulnerability. Recent studies have demonstrated that the risk of species decline depends on extrinsic and intrinsic traits, thus including both of them for assessing extinction might render more accurate assessment of threats. Methods. We harvested data from the Encyclopedia of Life (EOL) and the published literature for Mexican amphibians, and used these data to assess the population trend of some of the Mexican species that have been assigned to the Data Deficient category of the IUCN using Random Forests, a Machine Learning method that gives a prediction of complex processes and identifies the most important variables that account for the predictions. Results. Our results show that most of the data deficient Mexican amphibians that we used have decreasing population trends. We found that Random Forests is a solid way to identify species with decreasing population trends when no demographic data is available. Moreover, we point to the most important variables that make species more vulnerable for extinction. This exercise is a very valuable first step in assigning conservation priorities for poorly known species.

Peer grouping and performance measurement to improve rural and urban transit in Texas.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-05-01

Rural and small urban transit systems in Texas will become even more important with predicted changes in : population trends. Rural demographic trends indicate growth in the number of persons age 65 and over : coupled with a decrease in population de...

The relationship between population density and cancer mortality in Taiwan.

PubMed

Yang, C Y; Hsieh, Y L

1998-04-01

Many investigators have examined urbanization gradients in cancer rates. The purpose of this report was to identify urban-rural trends in cancer mortality rates (1982-1991) for municipalities in Taiwan. For this purpose, Taiwan's municipalities were classified as rural, suburban, urban, or metropolitan, using population density as an ordinal indicator of the degree of urbanization. Average annual age-adjusted, site-specific cancer mortality rates were calculated for both sexes within each population density group. Significant increasing trends with more urbanization were observed in mortality rates for cancers of the lung, pancreas, and kidney among both males and females, as well as male prostate cancer, and female breast and ovary cancer. In addition, this study revealed a significant rural excess for nonmelanoma skin cancer among both males and females, as well as male non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, and cancers of the female bone, and female connective tissue. Analytic studies for sites with consistent urban-rural trends may be fruitful in identifying the aspect of population density, or other unmeasured factors, that contribute to these trends.

[Regional differences in the development of hospitalizations : An effect of different demographic trends?

PubMed

Nowossadeck, Enno; Prütz, Franziska

2018-03-01

Population aging and population decline in many regions of the Federal Republic of Germany are key elements of demographic change. In the regions concerned there is a rising number of older people and, simultaneously, a declining population. So far, the consequences of regional shrinkage and growth for inpatient care don't seem to have been analysed very well. This paper analyses the influence of population aging and declining/increasing population (demographic factors) as well as other, non-demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations in Germany and the Federal States since 2000.One result of the analysis is that there are major differences between the Federal States. The analysis shows, for example, an increase of hospitalizations in Berlin while in Saxony-Anhalt the number of hospitalizations declines. The increase in Berlin was the result of population aging and, to a lower extent, an increase in population. In Saxony-Anhalt the declining population resulted in a decreasing number of hospitalizations. Population aging and non-demographic factors were not able to compensate this trend.Overall, the effect of demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations remains constant over time. Short-term changes of hospitalizations are due to non-demographic factors, such as epidemiological trends, (for example trends of incidence or prevalence), or structural changes of health care service (for example patients shifting between different sectors of health care or the introduction of new reimbursement systems).

Evolving practice patterns for the management of small renal masses in the USA.

PubMed

Yang, Glen; Villalta, Jacqueline D; Meng, Maxwell V; Whitson, Jared M

2012-10-01

What's known on the subject? and What does the study add? Treatment options for small renal masses include radical nephrectomy (RN), partial nephrectomy (PN), ablation, and surveillance. PN provides equivalent oncological as RN for small tumours, but long-term outcomes for ablation and surveillance are poorly defined. Due to changing techniques and technology, treatment patterns for small renal masses are rapidly developing. Prior studies had analysed utilisation trends for PN and RN to 2006, revealing a relative rise in the rate of PN. However, overall treatment trends including surveillance and ablation had not been studied using a population-based cohort. It has become increasingly clear that RN is associated with greater renal and cardiovascular deterioration than nephron-sparing treatments. Thus, it is important to understand current population-based practice patterns for the treatment of small renal masses to assess whether practitioners are adhering to ever-changing principles in this field. The present study provides up-to-date treatment trends in the USA using a large population-based cohort. To describe the changing practice patterns in the management of small renal masses, including the use of surveillance and ablative techniques. All patients in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) registry treated for renal masses of ≤7 cm in diameter, from 1998 to 2008, were included for analysis. Annual trends in the use of surveillance, ablation, partial nephrectomy (PN), and radical nephrectomy (RN) were calculated. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine the association of demographic and clinical characteristics with treatment method. In all, 48 148 patients from 17 registry sites with a mean age of 63.4 years were included for analysis. Between 1998 and 2008, for masses of <2 cm and 2.1-4 cm, there was a dramatic increase in the proportion of patients undergoing PN (31% vs 50%, 16% vs 33%, respectively) and ablation (1% vs 11%, 2% vs 9%, respectively). In multivariable analysis, later year of diagnosis, male gender, being married, clinically localised disease, and smaller tumours were associated with increased use of PN vs RN. Later year of diagnosis, male gender, being unmarried, smaller tumour, and the presence of bilateral masses were associated with increased use of ablation and surveillance vs RN. PN is now used in half of all patients with the smallest renal masses, and its use continues to increase over time. Ablation and surveillance are less common overall, but there is increased usage over time in select populations. © 2012 THE AUTHORS. BJU INTERNATIONAL © 2012 BJU INTERNATIONAL.

Transgender Population Size in the United States: a Meta-Regression of Population-Based Probability Samples

PubMed Central

Sevelius, Jae M.

2017-01-01

Background. Transgender individuals have a gender identity that differs from the sex they were assigned at birth. The population size of transgender individuals in the United States is not well-known, in part because official records, including the US Census, do not include data on gender identity. Population surveys today more often collect transgender-inclusive gender-identity data, and secular trends in culture and the media have created a somewhat more favorable environment for transgender people. Objectives. To estimate the current population size of transgender individuals in the United States and evaluate any trend over time. Search methods. In June and July 2016, we searched PubMed, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and Web of Science for national surveys, as well as “gray” literature, through an Internet search. We limited the search to 2006 through 2016. Selection criteria. We selected population-based surveys that used probability sampling and included self-reported transgender-identity data. Data collection and analysis. We used random-effects meta-analysis to pool eligible surveys and used meta-regression to address our hypothesis that the transgender population size estimate would increase over time. We used subsample and leave-one-out analysis to assess for bias. Main results. Our meta-regression model, based on 12 surveys covering 2007 to 2015, explained 62.5% of model heterogeneity, with a significant effect for each unit increase in survey year (F = 17.122; df = 1,10; b = 0.026%; P = .002). Extrapolating these results to 2016 suggested a current US population size of 390 adults per 100 000, or almost 1 million adults nationally. This estimate may be more indicative for younger adults, who represented more than 50% of the respondents in our analysis. Authors’ conclusions. Future national surveys are likely to observe higher numbers of transgender people. The large variety in questions used to ask about transgender identity may account for residual heterogeneity in our models. Public health implications. Under- or nonrepresentation of transgender individuals in population surveys is a barrier to understanding social determinants and health disparities faced by this population. We recommend using standardized questions to identify respondents with transgender and nonbinary gender identities, which will allow a more accurate population size estimate. PMID:28075632

Global Search Trends of Oral Problems using Google Trends from 2004 to 2016: An Exploratory Analysis.

PubMed

Patthi, Basavaraj; Kumar, Jishnu Krishna; Singla, Ashish; Gupta, Ritu; Prasad, Monika; Ali, Irfan; Dhama, Kuldeep; Niraj, Lav Kumar

2017-09-01

Oral diseases are pandemic cause of morbidity with widespread geographic distribution. This technology based era has brought about easy knowledge transfer than traditional dependency on information obtained from family doctors. Hence, harvesting this system of trends can aid in oral disease quantification. To conduct an exploratory analysis of the changes in internet search volumes of oral diseases by using Google Trends © (GT © ). GT © were utilized to provide real world facts based on search terms related to categories, interest by region and interest over time. Time period chosen was from January 2004 to December 2016. Five different search terms were explored and compared based on the highest relative search volumes along with comma separated value files to obtain an insight into highest search traffic. The search volume measured over the time span noted the term "Dental caries" to be the most searched in Japan, "Gingivitis" in Jordan, "Oral Cancer" in Taiwan, "No Teeth" in Australia, "HIV symptoms" in Zimbabwe, "Broken Teeth" in United Kingdom, "Cleft palate" in Philippines, "Toothache" in Indonesia and the comparison of top five searched terms provided the "Gingivitis" with highest search volume. The results from the present study offers an insight into a competent tool that can analyse and compare oral diseases over time. The trend research platform can be used on emerging diseases and their drift in geographic population with great acumen. This tool can be utilized in forecasting, modulating marketing strategies and planning disability limitation techniques.

Small and medium sized HDL particles are protectively associated with coronary calcification in a cross-sectional population-based sample.

PubMed

Ditah, Chobufo; Otvos, James; Nassar, Hisham; Shaham, Dorith; Sinnreich, Ronit; Kark, Jeremy D

2016-08-01

Failure of trials to observe benefits by elevating plasma high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) has raised serious doubts about HDL-C's atheroprotective properties. We aimed to identify protective HDL biomarkers by examining the association of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) measures of total HDL-particle (HDL-P), large HDL-particle, and small and medium-sized HDL-particle (MS-HDL-P) concentrations and average HDL-particle size with coronary artery calcification (CAC), which reflects the burden of coronary atherosclerosis, and compare with that of HDL-C. Using a cross-sectional design, 504 Jerusalem residents (274 Arabs and 230 Jews), recruited by population-based probability sampling, had HDL measured by NMR spectroscopy. CAC was determined by multidetector helical CT-scanning using Agatston scoring. Independent associations between the NMR measures and CAC (comparing scores ≥100 vs. <100) were assessed with multivariable binary logistic models. Comparing tertile 3 vs. tertile 1, we observed protective associations of HDL-P (multivariable-adjusted OR 0.42, 95% CI 0.22-0.79, plinear trend = 0.002) and MS-HDL-P (OR 0.36, 95% CI 0.19-0.69), plinear trend = 0.006 with CAC, which persisted after further adjustment for HDL-C. HDL-C was not significantly associated with CAC (multivariable-adjusted OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.27-1.29 for tertiles 3 vs. 1, plinear trend = 0.49). Large HDL-P and average particle size (which are highly correlated; r = 0.83) were not associated with CAC: large HDL-P (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.33-1.83, plinear trend = 0.29) and average HDL-P size (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.35-1.48, plinear trend = 0.58). MS-HDL-P represents a protective subpopulation of HDL particles. HDL-P and MS-HDL-P were more strongly associated with CAC than HDL-C. Based on the accumulating evidence, incorporation of MS-HDL-P or HDL-P into the routine prediction of CHD risk should be evaluated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Collection, use, and protection of population-based birth defects surveillance data in the united states.

PubMed

Mai, Cara T; Law, David J; Mason, Craig A; McDowell, Bradley D; Meyer, Robert E; Musa, Debra

2007-12-01

Birth defects surveillance systems collect population-based birth defects data from multiple sources to track trends in prevalence, identify risk factors, refer affected families to services, and evaluate prevention efforts. Strong state and federal public health and legal mandates are in place to govern the collection and use of these data. Despite the prima facie appeal of "opt-in" and similar strategies to those who view data collection as a threat to privacy, the use of these strategies in lieu of population-based surveillance can severely limit the ability of public health agencies to accurately access the health status of a group within a defined geographical area. With the need for population-based data central to their mission, birth defects programs around the country take their data stewardship role seriously, recognizing both moral and legal obligations to protect the data by employing numerous safeguards. Birth defects surveillance systems are shaped by the needs of the community they are designed to serve, with the goal of preventing birth defects or alleviating the burdens associated with them. (c) 2007 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Trends and risk factors of stillbirths and neonatal deaths in Eastern Uganda (1982-2011): a cross-sectional, population-based study.

PubMed

Kujala, Sanni; Waiswa, Peter; Kadobera, Daniel; Akuze, Joseph; Pariyo, George; Hanson, Claudia

2017-01-01

To identify mortality trends and risk factors associated with stillbirths and neonatal deaths 1982-2011. Population-based cross-sectional study based on reported pregnancy history in Iganga-Mayuge Health and Demographic Surveillance Site (HDSS) in Uganda. A pregnancy history survey was conducted among women aged 15-49 years living in the HDSS during May-July 2011 (n = 10 540). Time trends were analysed with cubic splines and linear regression. Potential risk factors were examined with multilevel logistic regression with adjusted odds ratios (AOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). 34 073 births from 1982 to 2011 were analysed. The annual rate of decrease was 0.9% for stillbirths and 1.8% for neonatal mortality. Stillbirths were associated with several risk factors: multiple births (AOR 2.57, CI 1.66-3.99), previous adverse outcome (AOR 6.16, CI 4.26-8.88) and grand multiparity among 35- to 49-year-olds (AOR 1.97, CI 1.32-2.89). Neonatal deaths were associated with multiple births (AOR 6.16, CI 4.80-7.92) and advanced maternal age linked with parity of 1-4 (AOR 2.34, CI 1.28-4.25) and grand multiparity (AOR 1.44, CI 1.09-1.90). Education, marital status and household wealth were not associated with the outcomes. The slow decline in mortality rates and easily identifiable risk factors calls for improving quality of care at birth and a rethinking of how to address obstetric risks, potentially a revival of the risk approach in antenatal care. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Projections of preventable risks for cardiovascular disease in Canada to 2021: a microsimulation modelling approach

PubMed Central

Manuel, Douglas G.; Tuna, Meltem; Hennessy, Deirdre; Okhmatovskaia, Anya; Finès, Philippe; Tanuseputro, Peter; Tu, Jack V.; Flanagan, William

2014-01-01

Background Reductions in preventable risks associated with cardiovascular disease have contributed to a steady decrease in its incidence over the past 50 years in most developed countries. However, it is unclear whether this trend will continue. Our objective was to examine future risk by projecting trends in preventable risk factors in Canada to 2021. Methods We created a population-based microsimulation model using national data on births, deaths and migration; socioeconomic data; cardiovascular disease risk factors; and algorithms for changes in these risk factors (based on sociodemographic characteristics and previous cardiovascular disease risk). An initial population of 22.5 million people, representing the Canadian adult population in 2001, had 13 characteristics including the risk factors used in clinical risk prediction. There were 6.1 million potential exposure profiles for each person each year. Outcome measures included annual prevalence of risk factors (smoking, obesity, diabetes, hypertension and lipid levels) and of co-occurring risks. Results From 2003 to 2009, the projected risks of cardiovascular disease based on the microsimulation model closely approximated those based on national surveys. Except for obesity and diabetes, all risk factors were projected to decrease through to 2021. The largest projected decreases were for the prevalence of smoking (from 25.7% in 2001 to 17.7% in 2021) and uncontrolled hypertension (from 16.1% to 10.8%). Between 2015 and 2017, obesity was projected to surpass smoking as the most prevalent risk factor. Interpretation Risks of cardiovascular disease are projected to decrease modestly in Canada, leading to a likely continuing decline in its incidence. PMID:25077135

Sources of health insurance and characteristics of the uninsured: analysis of the March 2001 Current Population Survey.

PubMed

Fronstin, P

2001-12-01

This Issue Brief provides summary data on the insured and uninsured populations in the nation and in each state. It discusses the characteristics most closely related to an individual's health insurance status. Based on EBRI estimates from the March 2001 Current Population Survey (CPS), it represents 2000 data--the most recent available. Between 1999 and 2000, the percentage of Americans with health insurance increased: 84.1 percent of nonelderly Americans were covered by some form of health insurance in 2000, up from 83.8 percent in 1999. The percentage of nonelderly Americans without health insurance coverage declined from 16.2 percent in 1999 to 15.9 percent in 2000, continuing a trend that started between 1998 and 1999. The main reason for the decline in the number of uninsured Americans was the strong economy and low unemployment. Between 1999 and 2000, the percentage of nonelderly Americans covered by employment-based health insurance increased from 66.6 percent to 67.3 percent, continuing a longer-term trend that started between 1993 and 1994. In 2000, 34.3 million Americans received health insurance from public programs, and an additional 16.1 million purchased it directly from an insurer. More than 25 million Americans participated in Medicaid or the State Children's Health Insurance Program, and 6.1 million received their health insurance through the Tricare and CHAMPVA programs and other government programs designed to provide coverage for retired military members and their families. Even though the number and percentage of uninsured declined substantially between 1998 and 2000, more than 38 million Americans remain uninsured. While an increasing percentage of Americans were being covered by employment-based health plans, this trend may not continue because of the combined re-emergence of health care cost inflation and the weak economy. As long as the economy is strong and unemployment is low, employment-based health insurance coverage will expand and the uninsured will decline gradually. However, the combination of the current weak economy and the rising cost of providing health benefits will likely result in more Americans without health insurance coverage. Should the uninsured remain unchanged and continue to represent 15.9 percent of the nonelderly population, 40 million would be uninsured by 2005. If the uninsured represented 25 percent of the population, 63 million would be uninsured in 2005 and 65 million nonelderly Americans would be uninsured by 2010.

Large-scale control site selection for population monitoring: an example assessing Sage-grouse trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fedy, Bradley C.; O'Donnell, Michael; Bowen, Zachary H.

2015-01-01

Human impacts on wildlife populations are widespread and prolific and understanding wildlife responses to human impacts is a fundamental component of wildlife management. The first step to understanding wildlife responses is the documentation of changes in wildlife population parameters, such as population size. Meaningful assessment of population changes in potentially impacted sites requires the establishment of monitoring at similar, nonimpacted, control sites. However, it is often difficult to identify appropriate control sites in wildlife populations. We demonstrated use of Geographic Information System (GIS) data across large spatial scales to select biologically relevant control sites for population monitoring. Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hearafter, sage-grouse) are negatively affected by energy development, and monitoring of sage-grouse population within energy development areas is necessary to detect population-level responses. Weused population data (1995–2012) from an energy development area in Wyoming, USA, the Atlantic Rim Project Area (ARPA), and GIS data to identify control sites that were not impacted by energy development for population monitoring. Control sites were surrounded by similar habitat and were within similar climate areas to the ARPA. We developed nonlinear trend models for both the ARPA and control sites and compared long-term trends from the 2 areas. We found little difference between the ARPA and control sites trends over time. This research demonstrated an approach for control site selection across large landscapes and can be used as a template for similar impact-monitoring studies. It is important to note that identification of changes in population parameters between control and treatment sites is only the first step in understanding the mechanisms that underlie those changes. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Upper gastrointestinal cancer burden in Hebei Province, China: A population-based study.

PubMed

Li, Dao-Juan; Liang, Di; Song, Guo-Hui; Li, Yong-Wei; Wen, Deng-Gui; Jin, Jing; He, Yu-Tong

2017-04-14

To investigate the incidence and mortality rates of upper gastrointestinal cancer (UGIC) in Hebei Province, China, and to identify high-risk populations to improve UGIC prevention and control. Data for UGIC patients were collected from 21 population-based cancer registries covering 15.25% of the population in Hebei Province. Mortality data were extracted from three national retrospective death surveys (1973-1975, 1990-1992 and 2004-2005). The data were stratified by 5-year age groups, gender and area (high-risk/non-high-risk areas) for analysis. The age-period-cohort and grey system model were used. The crude incidence rate of UGIC was 55.47/100000, and the adjusted rate (Segi's population) was 44.90/100000. Males in rural areas had the highest incidence rate (world age-standardized rate = 87.89/100000). The crude mortality rate of UGIC displayed a decreasing trend in Hebei Province from the 1970s to 2013, and the adjusted rate decreased by 43.81% from the 1970s (58.07/100000) to 2013 (32.63/100000). The mortality rate declined more significantly in the high-risk areas (57.26%) than in the non-high-risk areas (55.02%) from the 1970s to 2013. The median age at diagnosis of UGIC was 65.06 years in 2013. There was a notable delay in the median age at death from the 1970s (66.15 years) to 2013 (70.39 years), especially in the high-risk areas. In Cixian, the total trend of the cohort effect declined, and people aged 65-69 years were a population at relatively high risk for UGIC. We predicted that the crude mortality rates of UGIC in Cixian and Shexian would decrease to 98.80 and 133.99 per 100000 in 2018, respectively. UGIC was the major cause of cancer death in Hebei Province, and males in rural areas were a high-risk population. We should strengthen early detection and treatment of UGIC in this population.

Spatializing 6,000 years of global urbanization from 3700 BC to AD 2000

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reba, Meredith; Reitsma, Femke; Seto, Karen C.

2016-06-01

How were cities distributed globally in the past? How many people lived in these cities? How did cities influence their local and regional environments? In order to understand the current era of urbanization, we must understand long-term historical urbanization trends and patterns. However, to date there is no comprehensive record of spatially explicit, historic, city-level population data at the global scale. Here, we developed the first spatially explicit dataset of urban settlements from 3700 BC to AD 2000, by digitizing, transcribing, and geocoding historical, archaeological, and census-based urban population data previously published in tabular form by Chandler and Modelski. The dataset creation process also required data cleaning and harmonization procedures to make the data internally consistent. Additionally, we created a reliability ranking for each geocoded location to assess the geographic uncertainty of each data point. The dataset provides the first spatially explicit archive of the location and size of urban populations over the last 6,000 years and can contribute to an improved understanding of contemporary and historical urbanization trends.

Spatializing 6,000 years of global urbanization from 3700 BC to AD 2000

PubMed Central

Reba, Meredith; Reitsma, Femke; Seto, Karen C.

2016-01-01

How were cities distributed globally in the past? How many people lived in these cities? How did cities influence their local and regional environments? In order to understand the current era of urbanization, we must understand long-term historical urbanization trends and patterns. However, to date there is no comprehensive record of spatially explicit, historic, city-level population data at the global scale. Here, we developed the first spatially explicit dataset of urban settlements from 3700 BC to AD 2000, by digitizing, transcribing, and geocoding historical, archaeological, and census-based urban population data previously published in tabular form by Chandler and Modelski. The dataset creation process also required data cleaning and harmonization procedures to make the data internally consistent. Additionally, we created a reliability ranking for each geocoded location to assess the geographic uncertainty of each data point. The dataset provides the first spatially explicit archive of the location and size of urban populations over the last 6,000 years and can contribute to an improved understanding of contemporary and historical urbanization trends. PMID:27271481

77 FR 3450 - Guidelines for Assessing Marine Mammal Stocks

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-24

... population trend model are available, such a model can be used to influence the uncertainty projections....) voluntarily submitted by the commenter may be publicly accessible. Do not submit Confidential Business... distribution and abundance of the stock, population growth rates and trends, estimates of annual human-caused...

Long-term trends in fire behavior and changes in population at risk

EPA Science Inventory

Long-term trends in fire behavior and changes in population at risk Rappold AG, Peterson GC, US EPA Matt Jolly, USFS Air pollution regulations and technological advances have successfully reduced emissions of air pollutants from many anthropogenic sources in recent decades. Duri...

Fruit and vegetable intake and the risk of overall cancer in Japanese: A pooled analysis of population-based cohort studies.

PubMed

Takachi, Ribeka; Inoue, Manami; Sugawara, Yumi; Tsuji, Ichiro; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Ito, Hidemi; Matsuo, Keitaro; Tanaka, Keitaro; Tamakoshi, Akiko; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Wakai, Kenji; Nagata, Chisato; Sasazuki, Shizuka

2017-04-01

A series of recent reports from large-scale cohort studies involving more than 100,000 subjects reported no or only very small inverse associations between fruit and vegetable intake and overall cancer incidence, despite having sufficient power to do so. To date, however, no such data have been reported for Asian populations. To provide some indication of the net impact of fruit and vegetable consumption on overall cancer prevention, we examined these associations in a pooled analysis of large-scale cohort studies in Japanese populations. We analyzed original data from four cohort studies that measured fruit and vegetable consumption using validated questionnaires at baseline. Hazard ratios (HRs) in the individual studies were calculated, with adjustment for a common set of variables, and combined using a random-effects model. During 2,318,927 person-years of follow-up for a total of 191,519 subjects, 17,681 cases of overall cancers were identified. Consumption of fruit or vegetables was not associated with decreased risk of overall cancers: corresponding HRs for the highest versus lowest quartiles of intake for men and women were 1.03 (95% CI, 0.97-1.10; trend p = 1.00) and 1.03 (95% CI, 0.95-1.11; trend p = 0.97), respectively, for fruit and 1.07 (95% CI, 1.01-1.14; trend p = 0.18) and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.91-1.06; trend p = 0.99), respectively, for vegetables, even in analyses stratified by smoking status and alcohol drinking. The results of this pooled analysis do not support inverse associations of fruit and vegetable consumption with overall cancers in the Japanese population. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Production and hosting by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Golden eagle population trends in the western United States: 1968-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millsap, Brian A.; Zimmerman, Guthrie S.; Sauer, John R.; Nielson, Ryan M.; Otto, Mark; Bjerre, Emily; Murphy, Robert K.

2013-01-01

In 2009, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service promulgated permit regulations for the unintentional lethal take (anthropogenic mortality) and disturbance of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Accurate population trend and size information for golden eagles are needed so agency biologists can make informed decisions when eagle take permits are requested. To address this need with available data, we used a log-linear hierarchical model to average data from a late-summer aerial-line-transect distance-sampling survey (WGES) of golden eagles in the United States portions of Bird Conservation Region (BCR) 9 (Great Basin), BCR 10 (Northern Rockies), BCR 16 (Southern Rockies/Colorado Plateau), and BCR 17 (Badlands and Prairies) from 2006 to 2010 with late-spring, early summer Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data for the same BCRs and years to estimate summer golden eagle population size and trends in these BCRs. We used the ratio of the density estimates from the WGES to the BBS index to calculate a BCR-specific adjustment factor that scaled the BBS index (i.e., birds per route) to a density estimate. Our results indicated golden eagle populations were generally stable from 2006 to 2010 in the 4 BCRs, with an estimated average rate of population change of −0.41% (95% credible interval [CI]: −4.17% to 3.40%) per year. For the 4 BCRs and years, we estimated annual golden eagle population size to range from 28,220 (95% CI: 23,250–35,110) in 2007 to 26,490 (95% CI: 21,760–32,680) in 2008. We found a general correspondence in trends between WGES and BBS data for these 4 BCRs, which suggested BBS data were providing useful trend information. We used the overall adjustment factor calculated from the 4 BCRs and years to scale BBS golden eagle counts from 1968 to 2005 for the 4 BCRs and for 1968 to 2010 for the 8 other BCRs (without WGES data) to estimate golden eagle population size and trends across the western United States for the period 1968 to 2010. In general, we noted slightly declining trends in southern BCRs and slightly increasing trends in northern BCRs. However, we estimated the average rate of golden eagle population change across all 12 BCRs for the period 1968–2010 as +0.40% per year (95% CI = −0.27% to 1.00%), suggesting a stable population. We also estimated the average rate of population change for the period 1990–2010 was +0.5% per year (95% CI = −0.33% to 1.3%). Our annual estimates of population size for the most recent decade range from 31,370 (95% CI: 25,450–39,310) in 2004 to 33,460 (95% CI: 27,380–41,710) in 2007. Our results clarify that golden eagles are not declining widely in the western United States. © 2013 The Wildlife Society.

Socio-Economic Status and Prevalence of Self-Reported Osteoporosis in Tehran: Results from a Large Population-Based Cross-Sectional Study (Urban HEART-2).

PubMed

Asadi-Lari, M; Salimi, Y; Vaez-Mahdavi, M R; Faghihzadeh, S; Haeri Mehrizi, A A; Jorjoran Shushtari, Z; Cheraghian, Bahman

2018-04-10

Osteoporosis is a widespread disease among older peoples. The aim of this study is to estimate the prevalence of self-reported osteoporosis and assessing its association with socio-economic status. A population-based cross-sectional study was conducted in Tehran, Iran in 2011. Participants were 45,990 individuals aged above 20 years from 22 urban districts. Osteoporosis was measured by self-administrative questionnaire. Wealth index was constructed using principal component analysis based on household assets. Chi-square test, chi square test for trend, and crude odds ratio were used to assess associations in univariate analysis. Multiple logistic regression utilized to estimate adjusted associations between self-reported osteoporosis and socio-economic status.The overall estimated prevalence of self-reported osteoporosis was 4% (95% CI 3.88-4.13), 1.19% in men, and 6.84% in women (P < 0.001). The prevalence increased considerably as age increased (P for trend < 0.001). In multivariable analysis, education and wealth status were negative, and smoking was positively associated with the prevalence of self-reported osteoporosis. No association was found between participants' skill levels and Townsend deprivation index with the prevalence of self-reported osteoporosis.The findings of the present study have improved understanding of the association between socioeconomic status and osteoporosis in the Iranian population. It is important to consider socioeconomic status in screening and prevention programs.

Temporal trends in stroke incidence in South Asian, Chinese and white patients: A population based analysis.

PubMed

Khan, Nadia A; McAlister, Finlay A; Pilote, Louise; Palepu, Anita; Quan, Hude; Hill, Michael D; Fang, Jiming; Kapral, Moira K

2017-01-01

Little is known about potential ethnic differences in stroke incidence. We compared incidence and time trends of ischemic stroke and primary intracerebral hemorrhage in South Asian, Chinese and white persons in a population-based study. Population based census and administrative data analysis in the provinces of Ontario and British Columbia, Canada using validated ICD 9/ICD 10 coding for acute ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke (1997-2010). There were 3290 South Asians, 4444 Chinese and 160944 white patients with acute ischemic stroke and 535 South Asian, 1376 Chinese and 21842 white patients with intracerebral hemorrhage. South Asians were younger than whites at onset of stroke (70 vs. 74 years for ischemic and 67 vs. 71 years for hemorrhagic stroke). Age and sex adjusted ischemic stroke incidence in 2010 was 43% lower in Chinese and 63% lower in South Asian than in White patients. Age and sex adjusted intracerebral hemorrhage incidence was 18% higher in Chinese patients, and 66% lower in South Asian relative to white patients. Stroke incidence declined in all ethnic groups (relative reduction 69% in South Asians, 25% in Chinese, and 34% in white patients for ischemic stroke and for intracerebral hemorrhage, 79% for South Asians, 51% for Chinese and 30% in white patients). Although stroke rates declined across all ethnic groups, these rates differed significantly by ethnicity. Further study is needed to understand mechanisms underlying the higher ischemic stroke incidence in white patients and intracerebral hemorrhage in Chinese patients.

Trends in disability of instrumental activities of daily living among older Chinese adults, 1997-2006: population based study.

PubMed

Liang, Yajun; Welmer, Anna-Karin; Möller, Jette; Qiu, Chengxuan

2017-08-28

Data on trends for disability in instrumental activity of daily living (IADL) are sparse in older Chinese adults. To assess trends in prevalence and incidence of IADL disability among older Chinese adults and to explore contributing factors. Population based study. 15 provinces and municipalities in China. Participants (age ≥60) were from four waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey, conducted in 1997 (n=1533), 2000 (n=1581), 2004 (n=2028) and 2006 (n=2256), and from two cohorts constructed within the national survey: cohort 1997-2004 (n=712) and cohort 2000-2006 (n=823). IADL disability was defined as inability to perform one or more of the following: shopping, cooking, using transportation, financing and telephoning. Data were analysed with logistic regression and generalised estimating equation models. The prevalence of IADL disability significantly decreased from 1997 to 2006 in the total sample and in all of the subgroups by age, sex, living region and IADL items (all p trend <0.05). The incidence of IADL disability remained stable from cohort 1997-2004 to cohort 2000-2006 in the total sample and in all of the subgroups (all p>0.10). The recovery rate from IADL disability significantly increased over time in those aged 60-69 years (p=0.03). Living in a rural area or access to local clinics for healthcare was less disabling over time (p trend <0.02). The prevalence of IADL disability decreased among older Chinese adults during 1997-2006, whereas the incidence remained stable. The declining prevalence of IADL disability might be partly due to the decreased duration of IADL disability, and to improvements in living conditions and healthcare facilities over time. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Trends in high-risk sexual behaviors among general population groups in China: a systematic review.

PubMed

Cai, Rui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Looman, Caspar W N; de Vlas, Sake J

2013-01-01

The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups. Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population.

Trends in High-Risk Sexual Behaviors among General Population Groups in China: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Cai, Rui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Looman, Caspar W. N.; de Vlas, Sake J.

2013-01-01

Background The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Methods We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. Results We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups. Discussion Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population. PMID:24236121

Rural Conditions and Trends, 1990-1994.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rural Conditions and Trends, 1994

1994-01-01

The five volumes of Rural Conditions and Trends for 1990-1994 contain information and statistical data on economic and social conditions and trends of interest to rural educators and researchers. Articles cover the following areas: macroeconomic trends; employment; unemployment; industry; earnings; income; poverty; population; national economic…

Winter marine bird and sea otter abundance of Prince William Sound, Alaska: Trends following the t/v Exxon Valdez oil spill from 1990-94. Restoration project 94159. Exxon Valdez oil spill restoration project final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Agler, B.A.; Seiser, P.E.; Kendall, S.J.

1995-05-01

We conducted small boat surveys to determine population abundance of marine birds and sea otters (Enhydra lutris) in Prince William Sound, Alaska during March 1994. We observed 45 bird and 8 mammal species in Prince William Sound, and we estimated that 320,470 + or - 63,640 marine birds were present. We estimated trends in the March population estimates from 1990-94 by determining whether estimates in the oiled zone changed at the same rate as those in the unoiled zone. For Prince William Sound as a whole, we also examined the population trends from 1990-94 using regression analyses. We found significantmore » positive trends for harlequin duck (Histrionicus), goldeneye, merganser, bald eagle (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), black-legged kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla) and gull (Larus and Rissa spp.) populations. We also examined the relative abundance of marine bird species groups from 1972 to 1994. During March 1994, we estimated that the sea otter population was 7,746 + or - 2,073 otters. We found no difference in the rate of change between the oiled and unoiled zones from 1990-94, and there was no significant trend in the total number of sea otters in Prince William Sound from 1990-94.« less

[Spatial structure analysis and distribution simulation of Therioaphis trifolii population based on geostatistics and GIS].

PubMed

Zhang, Rong; Leng, Yun-fa; Zhu, Meng-meng; Wang, Fang

2007-11-01

Based on geographic information system and geostatistics, the spatial structure of Therioaphis trifolii population of different periods in Yuanzhou district of Guyuan City, the southern Ningxia Province, was analyzed. The spatial distribution of Therioaphis trifolii population was also simulated by ordinary Kriging interpretation. The results showed that Therioaphis trifolii population of different periods was correlated spatially in the study area. The semivariograms of Therioaphis trifolii could be described by exponential model, indicating an aggregated spatial arrangement. The spatial variance varied from 34.13%-48.77%, and the range varied from 8.751-12.049 km. The degree and direction of aggregation showed that the trend was increased gradually from southwest to northeast. The dynamic change of Therioaphis trifolii population in different periods could be analyzed intuitively on the simulated maps of the spatial distribution from the two aspects of time and space, The occurrence position and degree of Therioaphis trifolii to a state of certain time could be determined easily.

Directionality theory and the evolution of body size.

PubMed

Demetrius, L

2000-12-07

Directionality theory, a dynamic theory of evolution that integrates population genetics with demography, is based on the concept of evolutionary entropy, a measure of the variability in the age of reproducing individuals in a population. The main tenets of the theory are three principles relating the response to the ecological constraints a population experiences, with trends in entropy as the population evolves under mutation and natural selection. (i) Stationary size or fluctuations around a stationary size (bounded growth): a unidirectional increase in entropy; (ii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), large population size: a unidirectional decrease in entropy; and (iii) prolonged episodes of exponential growth (unbounded growth), small population size: random, non-directional change in entropy. We invoke these principles, together with an allometric relationship between entropy, and the morphometric variable body size, to provide evolutionary explanations of three empirical patterns pertaining to trends in body size, namely (i) Cope's rule, the tendency towards size increase within phyletic lineages; (ii) the island rule, which pertains to changes in body size that occur as species migrate from mainland populations to colonize island habitats; and (iii) Bergmann's rule, the tendency towards size increase with increasing latitude. The observation that these ecotypic patterns can be explained in terms of the directionality principles for entropy underscores the significance of evolutionary entropy as a unifying concept in forging a link between micro-evolution, the dynamics of gene frequency change, and macro-evolution, dynamic changes in morphometric variables.

Evaluation of different radon guideline values based on characterization of ecological risk and visualization of lung cancer mortality trends in British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Branion-Calles, Michael C; Nelson, Trisalyn A; Henderson, Sarah B

2015-11-19

There is no safe concentration of radon gas, but guideline values provide threshold concentrations that are used to map areas at higher risk. These values vary between different regions, countries, and organizations, which can lead to differential classification of risk. For example the World Health Organization suggests a 100 Bq m(-3)value, while Health Canada recommends 200 Bq m(-3). Our objective was to describe how different thresholds characterized ecological radon risk and their visual association with lung cancer mortality trends in British Columbia, Canada. Eight threshold values between 50 and 600 Bq m(-3) were identified, and classes of radon vulnerability were defined based on whether the observed 95(th) percentile radon concentration was above or below each value. A balanced random forest algorithm was used to model vulnerability, and the results were mapped. We compared high vulnerability areas, their estimated populations, and differences in lung cancer mortality trends stratified by smoking prevalence and sex. Classification accuracy improved as the threshold concentrations decreased and the area classified as high vulnerability increased. Majority of the population lived within areas of lower vulnerability regardless of the threshold value. Thresholds as low as 50 Bq m(-3) were associated with higher lung cancer mortality, even in areas with low smoking prevalence. Temporal trends in lung cancer mortality were increasing for women, while decreasing for men. Radon contributes to lung cancer in British Columbia. The results of the study contribute evidence supporting the use of a reference level lower than the current guideline of 200 Bq m(-3) for the province.

Sex difference in the association between habitual daytime napping and prevalence of diabetes: a population-based study.

PubMed

Sun, Kan; Li, Feng; Qi, Yiqin; Lin, Diaozhu; Ren, Meng; Xu, Mingtong; Li, Fangping; Li, Yan; Yan, Li

2016-05-01

Our objective was to evaluate the associations between habitual daytime napping and diabetes and whether it varies by sex, menopause, and sleep quality. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in 8621 eligible individuals aged 40 years or older. Information on daytime napping hours, night-time sleep duration, history of menstruation, and sleep quality was self-reported. Diabetes was diagnosed according to the 1999 World Health Organization diagnostic criteria. The prevalence of diabetes was 19.4 % in men and 15.6 % in women. Increased daytime napping hours were positively associated with parameters of glycometabolism in women, such as fasting plasma glucose, oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) 2-h plasma glucose, and Hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c, all P for trend <0.05). In women, the prevalence of diabetes in no-habitual daytime napping group, 0-1-h daytime napping group, and more than 1-h daytime napping group were 14.5, 15.6, and 20.8 %, respectively (P for trend = 0.0004). A similar trend was detected in postmenopausal women (P for trend = 0.002). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, compared with no-habitual daytime napping postmenopausal women, those with daytime napping more than 1 h had higher prevalent diabetes (odds ratios 1.36, 95 % confidence interval, 1.04-1.77). In subgroup analysis of postmenopausal women, associations of daytime napping levels and prevalent diabetes were detected in older, overweight participants with good sleep quality who have not retired from work. In conclusion, our study suggests that habitual daytime napping is associated with prevalence of diabetes in postmenopausal women.

Multimorbidity and the risk of restless legs syndrome in 2 prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Szentkirályi, András; Völzke, Henry; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Trenkwalder, Claudia; Berger, Klaus

2014-06-03

Our aim was to evaluate the association between the cumulative effect of comorbidity and the risk of restless legs syndrome (RLS) in 2 population-based German cohort studies. The Dortmund Health Study (DHS) (n = 1,312; median follow-up time: 2.1 years) and the Study of Health in Pomerania (SHIP) (n = 4,308; median follow-up time: 5.0 years) were used for the analyses. RLS was assessed at baseline and follow-up according to the RLS minimal criteria. A comorbidity index was calculated as a sum of the following conditions: diabetes, hypertension, myocardial infarction, obesity, stroke, cancer, renal disease, anemia, depression, thyroid disease, and migraine. The relationship between comorbidity and incident RLS was analyzed with multivariate logistic regression models. An increase in the number of comorbid conditions at baseline predicted prevalent RLS (DHS: trend odds ratio [OR] = 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.99-1.56; SHIP: trend OR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.18-1.52) and incident RLS (DHS: trend OR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.04-1.68; SHIP: trend OR = 1.59, 95% CI 1.37-1.85) after adjustment for several covariates. The ORs for incident RLS associated with 3 or more comorbid diseases (DHS: OR = 2.51, 95% CI 1.18-5.34; SHIP: OR = 4.30, 95% CI 2.60-7.11) were higher than the ORs for any single disease. Multimorbidity was a strong risk factor for RLS in these 2 population-based cohort studies. The results support the hypothesis that cumulative disease burden is more important than the presence of a specific single disease in the pathophysiology of RLS. © 2014 American Academy of Neurology.

Albumin, bilirubin, uric acid and cancer risk: results from a prospective population-based study.

PubMed

Kühn, Tilman; Sookthai, Disorn; Graf, Mirja E; Schübel, Ruth; Freisling, Heinz; Johnson, Theron; Katzke, Verena; Kaaks, Rudolf

2017-11-07

It has long been proposed that albumin, bilirubin and uric acid may inhibit cancer development due to their anti-oxidative properties. However, there is a lack of population-based studies on blood levels of these molecules and cancer risk. Associations between pre-diagnostic serum albumin, bilirubin and uric acid and the risks of common cancers as well as cancer death in the EPIC-Heidelberg cohort were evaluated by multivariable Cox regression analyses. A case-cohort sample including a random subcohort (n=2739) and all incident cases of breast (n=627), prostate (n=554), colorectal (n=256), and lung cancer (n=195) as well as cancer death (n=761) that occurred between baseline (1994-1998) and 2009 was used. Albumin levels were inversely associated with breast cancer risk (hazard ratio Quartile 4 vs Quartile 1 (95% CI): 0.71 (0.51, 0.99), P linear trend =0.004) and overall cancer mortality (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.64 (0.48, 0.86), P linear trend <0.001) after multivariable adjustment. Uric acid levels were also inversely associated with breast cancer risk (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.72 (0.53, 0.99), P linear trend =0.043) and cancer mortality (HR Q4 vs Q1 (95% CI): 0.75 (0.58, 0.98), P linear trend =0.09). There were no significant associations between albumin or uric acid and prostate, lung and colorectal cancer. Serum bilirubin was not associated with any cancer end point. The present findings indicate that higher levels of albumin and uric acid are related to lower risks of breast cancer and cancer mortality. Further studies are needed to assess whether the observed associations are causal.

The importance of understanding epidemiology in order to inform financial decisions: a lesson from the Scottish Home Oxygen Service.

PubMed

Wood, R; Grant, I; Bain, M

2012-11-01

To ensure that decisions on the future planning of the Scottish Home Oxygen Service reflect population needs by examining the epidemiology of the main conditions that require home oxygen therapy and trends in their management. Analysis of routinely available vital event and health service data supplemented by published literature. Use of linked data to provide person-based analyses. Consideration of trends in key risk factors, disease incidence, prevalence and mortality for chronic neonatal lung disease, cystic fibrosis, chronic interstitial lung disease in adults and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Examination of trends in management of these conditions including hospital admissions, length of stay and re-admissions. The prevalence of all the conditions studied has increased in Scotland over recent years due to a combination of increased incidence, increased survival, more active case finding and demographic changes. There have been changes in management with trends towards shorter hospital stays. The clinical need for home oxygen therapy is likely to continue to increase over the next 10-20 years. It will encompass all age groups and a complex range of conditions. Public health needs to be proactive in providing relevant needs assessment information to ensure that planning within financial constraints is appropriately informed on population needs. Crown Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent stability of resident and migratory landbird populations in National Parks of the Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ray, Chris; Saracco, James; Holmgren, Mandy; Wilkerson, Robert; Siegel, Rodney; Jenkins, Kurt J.; Ransom, Jason I.; Happe, Patricia J.; Boetsch, John; Huff, Mark

2017-01-01

Monitoring species in National Parks facilitates inference regarding effects of climate change on population dynamics because parks are relatively unaffected by other forms of anthropogenic disturbance. Even at early points in a monitoring program, identifying climate covariates of population density can suggest vulnerabilities to future change. Monitoring landbird populations in parks during the breeding season brings the added benefit of allowing a comparative approach to inference across a large suite of species with diverse requirements. For example, comparing resident and migratory species that vary in exposure to non-park habitats can reveal the relative importance of park effects, such as those related to local climate. We monitored landbirds using breeding-season point-count data collected during 2005–2014 in three wilderness areas of the Pacific Northwest (Mount Rainier, North Cascades, and Olympic National Parks). For 39 species, we estimated recent trends in population density while accounting for individual detection probability using Bayesian hierarchical N-mixture models. Our analyses integrated several recent developments in N-mixture modeling, incorporating interval and distance sampling to estimate distinct components of detection probability while also accommodating count intervals of varying duration, annual variation in the length and number of point-count transects, spatial autocorrelation, random effects, and covariates of detection and density. As covariates of density, we considered metrics of precipitation and temperature hypothesized to affect breeding success. We also considered effects of park and elevational stratum on trend. Regardless of model structure, we estimated stable or increasing densities during 2005–2014 for most populations. Mean trends across species were positive for migrants in every park and for residents in one park. A recent snowfall deficit in this region might have contributed to the positive trend, because population density varied inversely with precipitation-as-snow for both migrants and residents. Densities varied directly but much more weakly with mean spring temperature. Our approach exemplifies an analytical framework for estimating trends from point-count data, and for assessing the role of climatic and other spatiotemporal variables in driving those trends. Understanding population trends and the factors that drive them is critical for adaptive management and resource stewardship in the context of climate change.

The accuracy of matrix population model projections for coniferous trees in the Sierra Nevada, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Mantgem, P.J.; Stephenson, N.L.

2005-01-01

1 We assess the use of simple, size-based matrix population models for projecting population trends for six coniferous tree species in the Sierra Nevada, California. We used demographic data from 16 673 trees in 15 permanent plots to create 17 separate time-invariant, density-independent population projection models, and determined differences between trends projected from initial surveys with a 5-year interval and observed data during two subsequent 5-year time steps. 2 We detected departures from the assumptions of the matrix modelling approach in terms of strong growth autocorrelations. We also found evidence of observation errors for measurements of tree growth and, to a more limited degree, recruitment. Loglinear analysis provided evidence of significant temporal variation in demographic rates for only two of the 17 populations. 3 Total population sizes were strongly predicted by model projections, although population dynamics were dominated by carryover from the previous 5-year time step (i.e. there were few cases of recruitment or death). Fractional changes to overall population sizes were less well predicted. Compared with a null model and a simple demographic model lacking size structure, matrix model projections were better able to predict total population sizes, although the differences were not statistically significant. Matrix model projections were also able to predict short-term rates of survival, growth and recruitment. Mortality frequencies were not well predicted. 4 Our results suggest that simple size-structured models can accurately project future short-term changes for some tree populations. However, not all populations were well predicted and these simple models would probably become more inaccurate over longer projection intervals. The predictive ability of these models would also be limited by disturbance or other events that destabilize demographic rates. ?? 2005 British Ecological Society.

Northwest Forest Plan—the first 15 years (1994–2008): status and trends of northern spotted owl populations and habitats

Treesearch

Raymond J. Davis; Katie M. Dugger; Shawne Mohoric; Louisa Evers; William C. Aney

2011-01-01

This is the second in a series of periodic monitoring reports on northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) population and habitat trends on federally administered lands since implementation of the Northwest Forest Plan in 1994.Here we summarize results from a population analysis that included data from longterm demographic studies during 1985–2008....

Population trends from the North American Breeding Bird Survey

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterjohn, B.G.; Sauer, J.R.; Robbins, C.S.; Martin, Thomas E.; Finch, Deborah M.

1995-01-01

INTRODUCTION: Most Neotropical migrant birds are difficult to count accurately and are moderately common over large breeding distributions. Consequently, little historical information exists on their large-scale population changes, and most of this information is anecdotal. Surveys begun in this century such as Breeding Bird Censuses and Christmas Bird Counts have the potential to provide this information, but only the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) achieves the extensive continental coverage necessary to document population changes for most Neotropical migrant birds. Conservationists and ecologists have begun to use BBS data to estimate population trends, but there is still widespread confusion over exactly what these data show regarding population changes. In this chapter, we review the current state of knowledge regarding population changes in Neotropical migrant birds and the methods used to analyze these changes. The primary emphasis is on the BBS (Robbins et al. 1986) because this survey provides the best available data for estimating trends of Neotropical migrants on a continental scale. To address questions about methods of analyzing survey data, we review and compare some alternative methods of analyzing BBS data. We also discuss the effectiveness of the BBS in sampling Neotropical migrant species, and review possibilities for use of alternative data sets to verify trends from the BBS.

Potential Effects of a Scenario Earthquake on the Economy of Southern California: Baseline County-Level Migration Characteristics and Trends 1995-2000 and 2001-2010

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sherrouse, Benson C.; Hester, David J.

2008-01-01

The Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and various partners from the public and private sectors and academia, meant to improve Southern California's resiliency to natural hazards. In support of the MHDP objectives, the ShakeOut Scenario was developed. It describes a magnitude 7.8 earthquake along the southernmost 300 kilometers (200 miles) of the San Andreas Fault, identified by geoscientists as a plausible event that will cause moderate to strong shaking over much of the eight-county (Imperial, Kern, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, and Ventura) Southern California region. This report uses historical, estimated, and projected population data from several Federal and State data sources to estimate baseline characteristics and trends of the region's population migration (that is, changes in a person's place of residence over time). The analysis characterizes migration by various demographic, economic, family, and household variables for the period 1995-2000. It also uses existing estimates (beginning in 2001) of the three components of population change - births, deaths, and migration - to extrapolate near-term projections of county-level migration trends through 2010. The 2010 date was chosen to provide baseline projections corresponding to a two-year recovery period following the November 2008 date that was selected for the occurrence of the ShakeOut Scenario earthquake. The baseline characteristics and projections shall assist with evaluating the effects of inflow and outflow migration trends for alternative futures in which the simulated M7.8 earthquake either does or does not occur and the impact of the event on housing and jobs, as well as community composition and regional economy changes based on dispersion of intellectual, physical, economic, and cultural capital.

Predictors of specialist avifaunal decline in coastal marshes.

PubMed

Correll, Maureen D; Wiest, Whitney A; Hodgman, Thomas P; Shriver, W Gregory; Elphick, Chris S; McGill, Brian J; O'Brien, Kathleen M; Olsen, Brian J

2017-02-01

Coastal marshes are one of the world's most productive ecosystems. Consequently, they have been heavily used by humans for centuries, resulting in ecosystem loss. Direct human modifications such as road crossings and ditches and climatic stressors such as sea-level rise and extreme storm events have the potential to further degrade the quantity and quality of marsh along coastlines. We used an 18-year marsh-bird database to generate population trends for 5 avian species (Rallus crepitans, Tringa semipalmata semipalmata, Ammodramus nelsonii subvirgatus, Ammodramus caudacutus, and Ammodramus maritimus) that breed almost exclusively in tidal marshes, and are potentially vulnerable to marsh degradation and loss as a result of anthropogenic change. We generated community and species trends across 3 spatial scales and explored possible drivers of the changes we observed, including marsh ditching, tidal restriction through road crossings, local rates of sea-level rise, and potential for extreme flooding events. The specialist community showed negative trends in tidally restricted marshes (-2.4% annually from 1998 to 2012) but was stable in unrestricted marshes across the same period. At the species level, we found negative population trends in 3 of the 5 specialist species, ranging from -4.2% to 9.0% annually. We suggest that tidal restriction may accelerate degradation of tidal marsh resilience to sea-level rise by limiting sediment supply necessary for marsh accretion, resulting in specialist habitat loss in tidally restricted marshes. Based on our findings, we predict a collapse of the global population of Saltmarsh Sparrows (A. caudacutus) within the next 50 years and suggest that immediate conservation action is needed to prevent extinction of this species. We also suggest mitigation actions to restore sediment supply to coastal marshes to help sustain this ecosystem into the future. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Red meat intake is positively associated with non-fatal acute myocardial infarction in the Costa Rica Heart Study.

PubMed

Wang, Dongqing; Campos, Hannia; Baylin, Ana

2017-08-01

The adverse effect of red meat consumption on the risk for CVD is a major population health concern, especially in developing Hispanic/Latino countries in which there are clear trends towards increased consumption. This population-based case-control study examined the associations between total, processed and unprocessed red meat intakes and non-fatal acute myocardial infarction (MI) in Costa Rica. The study included 2131 survivors of a first non-fatal acute MI and 2131 controls individually matched by age, sex and area of residence. Dietary intake was assessed with a FFQ. OR were estimated by using conditional logistic regression. Higher intakes of total and processed red meat were associated with increased odds of acute MI. The OR were 1·31 (95 % CI 1·04, 1·65) and 1·29 (95 % CI 1·01, 1·65) for the highest quintiles of total red meat (median: 110·8 g or 1 serving/d) and processed red meat intake (median: 36·1 g or 5 servings/week), respectively. There were increasing trends in the odds of acute MI with higher total (P trend=0·01) and processed (P trend=0·02) red meat intakes. Unprocessed red meat intake was not associated with increased odds of acute MI. Substitutions of 50 g of alternative foods (fish, milk, chicken without skin and chicken without fat) for 50 g of total, processed and unprocessed red meat were associated with lower odds of acute MI. The positive association between red meat intake and acute MI in Costa Rica highlights the importance of reducing red meat consumption in middle-income Hispanic/Latino populations.

Dietary determinants of serum total cholesterol among middle-aged and older adults: a population-based cross-sectional study in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

PubMed Central

Kakarmath, Sujay S; Zack, Rachel M; Leyna, Germana H; Fahimi, Saman; Liu, Enju; Fawzi, Wafaie W; Lukmanji, Zohra; Killewo, Japhet; Sacks, Frank; Danaei, Goodarz

2017-01-01

Objective To assess the dietary determinants of serum total cholesterol. Design Cross-sectional population-based study. Setting Peri-urban region of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Participants 347 adults aged 40 years and older from the Dar es Salaam Urban Cohort Hypertension Study. Main outcome measure Serum total cholesterol measured using a point-of-care device. Results Mean serum total cholesterol level was 204 mg/dL (IQR 169–236 mg/dL) in women and 185 mg/dL (IQR 152–216 mg/dL) in men. After adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic, lifestyle and dietary factors, participants who reported using palm oil as the major cooking oil had serum total cholesterol higher by 15 mg/dL (95% CI 1 to 29 mg/dL) compared with those who reported using sunflower oil. Consumption of one or more servings of meat per day (p for trend=0.017) and less than five servings of fruits and vegetables per day (p for trend=0.024) were also associated with higher serum total cholesterol. A combination of using palm oil for cooking, eating more than one serving of meat per day and fewer than five servings of fruits and vegetables per day, was associated with 46 mg/dL (95% CI 16 to 76 mg/dL) higher serum total cholesterol. Conclusions Using palm oil for cooking was associated with higher serum total cholesterol levels in this peri-urban population in Dar es Salaam. Reduction of saturated fat content of edible oil may be considered as a population-based strategy for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases. PMID:28588111

Epidemiology of upper urinary tract stone disease in a Taiwanese population: a nationwide, population based study.

PubMed

Huang, Wei-Yi; Chen, Yu-Fen; Carter, Stacey; Chang, Hong-Chiang; Lan, Chung-Fu; Huang, Kuo-How

2013-06-01

We investigated the epidemiology of upper urinary tract stone disease in Taiwan using a nationwide, population based database. This study was based on the National Health Insurance Research Database of Taiwan, which contains data on all medical beneficiary claims from 22.72 million enrollees, accounting for almost 99% of the Taiwanese population. The Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2005, a subset of the National Health Insurance Research Database, contains data on all medical benefit claims from 1997 through 2010 for a subset of 1 million beneficiaries randomly sampled from the 2005 enrollment file. For epidemiological analysis we selected subjects whose claims records included the diagnosis of upper urinary tract urolithiasis. The age adjusted rate of medical care visits for upper urinary tract urolithiasis decreased by 6.5% from 1,367/100,000 subjects in 1998 to 1,278/100,000 in 2010. There was a significantly decreasing trend during the 13-year period in visits from female and all subjects (r(2) = 0.86, p = 0.001 and r(2) = 0.52, p = 0.005, respectively). In contrast, an increasing trend was noted for male subjects (r(2) = 0.45, p = 0.012). The age adjusted prevalence in 2010 was 9.01%, 5.79% and 7.38% in male, female and all subjects, respectively. The overall recurrence rate at 1 and 5 years was 6.12% and 34.71%, respectively. Male subjects had a higher recurrence rate than female subjects. Our study provides important information on the epidemiology of upper urinary tract stone disease in Taiwan, helping to quantify the burden of urolithiasis and establish strategies to decrease the risk of urolithiasis. Copyright © 2013 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Secular trends in fruit intake among Danish schoolchildren, 1988 to 2006: Changing habits or methodological artefacts?

PubMed Central

Rasmussen, Mette; Krølner, Rikke; Svastisalee, Chalida Mae; Due, Pernille; Holstein, Bjørn Evald

2008-01-01

Background Intermittent monitoring of fruit and vegetable intake at the population level is essential for the evaluation and planning of national dietary interventions. Yet, only a limited number of studies on time trends in fruit and vegetable intake among children and adolescents have been published internationally. In Denmark, national comprehensive campaigns to enhance fruit and vegetable consumption were initiated in 2001. This paper describes secular trends in fruit intake among Danish adolescents by six comparable school surveys from 1988 to 2006. The paper demonstrates and discusses the consequences of measurement changes introduced in long-term trend analyses. Methods We used Danish data from the international Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) study collected in 1988, 1991, 1994, 1998, 2002 and 2006. Analyses were conducted on comparable questionnaire-based data from students aged 11, 13 and 15 total (n = 23,871) from a random sample of schools. Data on fruit intake were measured by a food frequency questionnaire. Due to changes in number of response categories beween surveys, different cut-points were analysed. Results The prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily ranged from 78.3% among 13-year-old girls in 1988 to 17.3% among 15-year-old boys in 2002. Based on the six data collections, analyses of trends showed a significant decrease in prevalence of students eating fruit at least once daily from 1988 to 2002 (all p-values < 0.0001). In all age and gender groups, a significant increase in intake occurred between 2002 and 2006 (all p-values < 0.0065). Analyses of alternative cut-points revealed similar results. Conclusion Fruit consumption among Danish schoolchildren decreased from 1988 to 2002 with an increase since 2002. We suggest that the increase may be attributable to a nation-wide initiative conducted in Denmark since 2001 to increase the intake of fruit and vegetables in the population. Still, the results imply that a substantial proportion of Danish schoolchildren do not meet the nationally recommended daily intake of fruit. Our analyses indicate that the observed trends are not solely caused by methodological biases related to changes in measurements. PMID:18237390

Population trends influence species ability to track climate change

Treesearch

Joel Ralston; William V. DeLuca; Richard E. Feldman; David I. King

2016-01-01

Shifts of distributions have been attributed to species tracking their fundamental climate niches through space. However, several studies have now demonstrated that niche tracking is imperfect, that species' climate niches may vary with population trends, and that geographic distributions may lag behind rapid climate change. These reports of imperfect niche...

Using Collaborative Web Technology to Construct the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS)

PubMed Central

MOSER, RICHARD P.; BECKJORD, ELLEN BURKE; RUTTEN, LILA J. FINNEY; BLAKE, KELLY; HESSE, BRADFORD W.

2012-01-01

Scientists are taking advantage of web-based technology to work in new collaborative environments, a phenomenon known as Science 2.0. The National Cancer Institute (NCI) created a web-based tool called HINTS-GEM that allows a diverse group of stakeholders to collaborate in a virtual environment by providing input on content for the Health Information National Trends Survey (HINTS). This involved stakeholders providing new suggested content and commenting and rating on existing content. HINTS is a nationally-representative survey of the US non-institutionalized adult population (see Finney Rutten et al. [this journal] for more information about the HINTS program). This paper describes the conceptual development of HINTS-GEM and provides results of its use by stakeholders in creating an improved survey instrument. PMID:23020764

History of deer population trends and forest cutting on the Allegheny National Forest

Treesearch

Jim Redding

1995-01-01

The forests of the Allegheny Plateau section of northwestern Pennsylvania have been severely impacted for more than 70 years by selective browsing by white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus). Historical and ecological interactions of deer and the forest ecosystem in this region from pre-settlement times to the present are presented based on data...

Trends in Culturally Relevant Interface Design Features for Latino Web Site Users

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sachau, Lori L.; Hutchinson, Susan R.

2012-01-01

There is a lack of published research on designing Web-based instruction for the adult U.S. Latino population. Instructional designers need guidance on how to design culturally relevant learning environments for this audience, particularly for Latino people from Mexican heritage. The authors used content analysis to investigate the extent to which…

Evidences of Validity of the Brazilian Scale of Learner's Attitude towards Distance Education Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coelho, Francisco Antonio, Jr.; Cortat, Mariane; Flores, Clarissa Leite; Santos, Flávio Augusto Mendes; Alves, Gleidilson Costa; Faiad, Cristiane; Ramos, Wilsa Maria; Rodrigues da Silva, Alan

2018-01-01

Online learning is one of the fastest growing trends in educational uses of technology. In this study, an instrument to measure the social attitudes of the Brazilian students based on distance education was developed and validated. The study population consisted of public administration undergraduate students that has been providing by distance…

The State of Texas Children: 2003. Texas Kids Count.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Texas Univ., Austin. Center for Public Policy Priorities.

This Kids Count report details trends in the well-being of children in Texas. The statistical portrait is based on indicators in the areas of: (1) family and community population; (2) economic resources, security, and opportunity; (3) early care and education; (4) school success; (5) teens at risk; (6) physical, social, and emotional health; (7)…

Current Trends in Early Hearing Diagnosis and Intervention in North Carolina

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pretto, Aneesha Patrice

2010-01-01

In North Carolina, the eligibility criteria for enrollment in Part C early intervention services do not exclude infants and toddlers based on the severity or laterality of hearing loss. As such, the state's early intervention population represents a widely diverse array of children ranging from those with minimal to profound hearing losses. While…

Base Redevelopment Planning for BRAC Sites

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-05-01

or the private sector, also may supplement core staff responsibilities. Pro - fessional consultants may provide legal, planning, real estate...Opportunities, and Threats ( SWOT ) Analysis: An evaluation of a community’s economic, social, and physical environmental strengths, weaknesses, opportunities...in this area compare to those elsewhere? Forecasted changes in employment and population trends can be translated into pro - jected demand for housing

A Systematic Approach to Improving E-Learning Implementations in High Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pardamean, Bens; Suparyanto, Teddy

2014-01-01

This study was based on the current growing trend of implementing e-learning in high schools. Most endeavors have been inefficient, rendering an objective of determining the initial steps that could be taken to improve these efforts by assessing a student population's computer skill levels and performances in an IT course. Demographic factors were…

Elk monitoring in Mount Rainier and Olympic national parks: 2008-2011 synthesis report

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, Kurt J.; Griffin, Paul C.; Happe, Patricia J.; Reid, Mason E.; Vales, David J.; Moeller, Barbara J.; Tirhe, Michelle; McCorquodale, Scott; Beirne, Katherine; Boetsch, John; Baccus, William; Lubow, Bruce C.

2015-01-01

We continue to develop and improve the DO-S model for application to OLYM summer surveys. In the next synthesis report, we will update findings with additional data following the 2015 field season, based on 8 years of survey results; it will be a more complete analysis of elk population trends.

Half-Truths and Consequences: The Legacy of Global 2000. Institution Analysis No. 34.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moore, Stephen

The 1980 "Global 2000 Report to the President" was based on a study which attempted to project international trends in population, pollution, and resource availability through the year 2000. This document discusses: (1) the background of Global 2000; (2) Global 2000 and the media; (3) Global 2000's impact on the environmental movement…

Urbanization Causes Increased Cloud Base Height and Decreased Fog in Coastal Southern California

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, A. Park; Schwartz, Rachel E.; Iacobellis, Sam; Seager, Richard; Cook, Benjamin I.; Still, Christopher J.; Husak, Gregory; Michaelsen, Joel

2015-01-01

Subtropical marine stratus clouds regulate coastal and global climate, but future trends in these clouds are uncertain. In coastal Southern California (CSCA), interannual variations in summer stratus cloud occurrence are spatially coherent across 24 airfields and dictated by positive relationships with stability above the marine boundary layer (MBL) and MBL height. Trends, however, have been spatially variable since records began in the mid-1900s due to differences in nighttime warming. Among CSCA airfields, differences in nighttime warming, but not daytime warming, are strongly and positively related to fraction of nearby urban cover, consistent with an urban heat island effect. Nighttime warming raises the near-surface dew point depression, which lifts the altitude of condensation and cloud base height, thereby reducing fog frequency. Continued urban warming, rising cloud base heights, and associated effects on energy and water balance would profoundly impact ecological and human systems in highly populated and ecologically diverse CSCA.

Trends in Rehabilitation Services Use in Chinese Children and Adolescents With Intellectual Disabilities: 2007-2013.

PubMed

He, Ping; Guo, Chao; Luo, Yanan; Wen, Xu; Salas, J M Ian; Chen, Gong; Zheng, Xiaoying

2017-12-01

To investigate trends in rehabilitation services use in children and adolescents with intellectual disabilities, and to explore factors potentially contributing to the trends. A population-based study using a multistage, randomized cluster-sampling process to ascertain participants in 2006. A subsample was selected for follow-up surveys from 2007 to 2013. Thirty-one provinces of China. Children (N=5432) aged 0 to 17 years with intellectual disabilities were followed up for 7 years. Not applicable. The outcome variable was whether individuals received at least 1 of the following rehabilitation services in the past 12 months: occupational therapy, physical therapy, and speech or communication therapy. Overall, the utilization rates of rehabilitation services significantly increased from 14.4% in 2007 to 37.1% in 2013. The trends were also significant in children aged 0 to 10 and 11 to 17 years, in boys and girls, and in rural participants. From 2007 to 2013, rehabilitation services utilization increased at an annual rate of 22.39% (95% confidence interval, 18.11%-26.82%) in the total sample. The rise was only significant in rural rather than urban individuals, resulting in the urban-rural gap in rehabilitation services use being narrowed. However, minority populations and those without health insurance still received fewer rehabilitation services than their respective counterparts. There were upward trends in rehabilitation services use in participants over time, and the urban-rural gap was narrowed. However, there were still socioeconomic differences on rehabilitation services use among children and adolescents with intellectual disabilities. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 32; Estimates of AOD Trends (2002 - 2012) Over the World's Major Cities Based on the MERRA Aerosol Reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Provencal, Simon; Kishcha, Pavel; Elhacham, Emily; daSilva, Arlindo M.; Alpert, Pinhas; Suarez, Max J.

2014-01-01

NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office has extended the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application (MERRA) tool with five atmospheric aerosol species (sulfates, organic carbon, black carbon, mineral dust and sea salt). This inclusion of aerosol reanalysis data is now known as MERRAero. This study analyses a ten-year period (July 2002 - June 2012) MERRAero aerosol reanalysis applied to the study of aerosol optical depth (AOD) and its trends for the aforementioned aerosol species over the world's major cities (with a population of over 2 million inhabitants). We found that a proportion of various aerosol species in total AOD exhibited a geographical dependence. Cities in industrialized regions (North America, Europe, central and eastern Asia) are characterized by a strong proportion of sulfate aerosols. Organic carbon aerosols are dominant over cities which are located in regions where biomass burning frequently occurs (South America and southern Africa). Mineral dust dominates other aerosol species in cities located in proximity to the major deserts (northern Africa and western Asia). Sea salt aerosols are prominent in coastal cities but are dominant aerosol species in very few of them. AOD trends are declining over cities in North America, Europe and Japan, as a result of effective air quality regulation. By contrast, the economic boom in China and India has led to increasing AOD trends over most cities in these two highly-populated countries. Increasing AOD trends over cities in the Middle East are caused by increasing desert dust.