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Sample records for population-based lifetime modeling

  1. Occupational self-coding and automatic recording (OSCAR): a novel web-based tool to collect and code lifetime job histories in large population-based studies.

    PubMed

    De Matteis, Sara; Jarvis, Deborah; Young, Heather; Young, Alan; Allen, Naomi; Potts, James; Darnton, Andrew; Rushton, Lesley; Cullinan, Paul

    2017-03-01

    Objectives The standard approach to the assessment of occupational exposures is through the manual collection and coding of job histories. This method is time-consuming and costly and makes it potentially unfeasible to perform high quality analyses on occupational exposures in large population-based studies. Our aim was to develop a novel, efficient web-based tool to collect and code lifetime job histories in the UK Biobank, a population-based cohort of over 500 000 participants. Methods We developed OSCAR (occupations self-coding automatic recording) based on the hierarchical structure of the UK Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) 2000, which allows individuals to collect and automatically code their lifetime job histories via a simple decision-tree model. Participants were asked to find each of their jobs by selecting appropriate job categories until they identified their job title, which was linked to a hidden 4-digit SOC code. For each occupation a job title in free text was also collected to estimate Cohen's kappa (κ) inter-rater agreement between SOC codes assigned by OSCAR and an expert manual coder. Results OSCAR was administered to 324 653 UK Biobank participants with an existing email address between June and September 2015. Complete 4-digit SOC-coded lifetime job histories were collected for 108 784 participants (response rate: 34%). Agreement between the 4-digit SOC codes assigned by OSCAR and the manual coder for a random sample of 400 job titles was moderately good [κ=0.45, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.42-0.49], and improved when broader job categories were considered (κ=0.64, 95% CI 0.61-0.69 at a 1-digit SOC-code level). Conclusions OSCAR is a novel, efficient, and reasonably reliable web-based tool for collecting and automatically coding lifetime job histories in large population-based studies. Further application in other research projects for external validation purposes is warranted.

  2. Prevalence of Self-Reported Lifetime History of Traumatic Brain Injury and Associated Disability: A Statewide Population-Based Survey.

    PubMed

    Whiteneck, Gale G; Cuthbert, Jeffrey P; Corrigan, John D; Bogner, Jennifer A

    2016-01-01

    To investigate the prevalence of all severities of traumatic brain injury (TBI), regardless of treatment setting, and their associated negative outcomes. A total of 2701 adult Coloradoans. A statewide, population-based, random digit-dialed telephone survey. The lifetime history of TBI was assessed by a modification of the Ohio State University TBI Identification Method; activity limitation and life satisfaction were also assessed. The distribution of self-reported lifetime injury was as follows: 19.8%, no injury; 37.7%, injury but no TBI; 36.4%, mild TBI; and 6.0%, moderate-severe TBI. Of those reporting a TBI, 23.1% were hospitalized, 38.5% were treated in an emergency department, 9.8% were treated in a physician's office, and 27.5% did not seek medical care. A clear gradient of activity limitations and low life satisfaction was seen, with the highest proportions of these negative outcomes occurring in people reporting more severe TBI and the lowest proportions in those not reporting a TBI. Approximately twice as many people reported activity limitations and low life satisfaction after nonhospitalized TBI compared with hospitalized TBI. This investigation highlights the seriousness of TBI as a public health problem and the importance of including all severities of TBI, no matter where, or if treated, in estimating the prevalence of disability co-occurring with TBI.

  3. Lifetime exposure to arsenic in drinking water and bladder cancer: a population-based case-control study in Michigan, USA.

    PubMed

    Meliker, Jaymie R; Slotnick, Melissa J; AvRuskin, Gillian A; Schottenfeld, David; Jacquez, Geoffrey M; Wilson, Mark L; Goovaerts, Pierre; Franzblau, Alfred; Nriagu, Jerome O

    2010-05-01

    Arsenic in drinking water has been linked with the risk of urinary bladder cancer, but the dose-response relationships for arsenic exposures below 100 microg/L remain equivocal. We conducted a population-based case-control study in southeastern Michigan, USA, where approximately 230,000 people were exposed to arsenic concentrations between 10 and 100 microg/L. This study included 411 bladder cancer cases diagnosed between 2000 and 2004, and 566 controls recruited during the same period. Individual lifetime exposure profiles were reconstructed, and residential water source histories, water consumption practices, and water arsenic measurements or modeled estimates were determined at all residences. Arsenic exposure was estimated for 99% of participants' person-years. Overall, an increase in bladder cancer risk was not found for time-weighted average lifetime arsenic exposure >10 microg/L when compared with a reference group exposed to <1 microg/L (odds ratio (OR) = 1.10; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.65, 1.86). Among ever-smokers, risks from arsenic exposure >10 microg/L were similarly not elevated when compared to the reference group (OR = 0.94; 95% CI: 0.50, 1.78). We did not find persuasive evidence of an association between low-level arsenic exposure and bladder cancer. Selecting the appropriate exposure metric needs to be thoughtfully considered when investigating risk from low-level arsenic exposure.

  4. Adult lifetime alcohol consumption and invasive epithelial ovarian cancer risk in a population-based case-control study.

    PubMed

    Cook, Linda S; Leung, Andy C Y; Swenerton, Kenneth; Gallagher, Richard P; Magliocco, Anthony; Steed, Helen; Koebel, Martin; Nation, Jill; Eshragh, Sima; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Le, Nhu D

    2016-02-01

    Meta-analyses report a null association between recent alcohol consumption and ovarian cancer risk. However, because few studies investigated different types of alcohol over adult ages, we investigated adult lifetime and type (beer, wine, spirits) of consumption and risk. Consumption after age 20years was ascertained in 1144 invasive epithelial ovarian cancer cases and 2513 controls in a population-based case-control study (Alberta and British Columbia, Canada, 2001-2012). Non-drinkers consumed any types of alcohol <12 times per year on average. Logistic regression was use to estimate adjusted odds ratios [aOR] and 95% confidence intervals [CIs]. Wine consumption was associated with a risk reduction (aOR=0.67, 95% CI: 0.50-0.88) relative to non-drinkers, but not beer (aOR=1.06, 95% CI: 0.71-1.58) or spirits (aOR=0.98, 95% CI: 0.69-1.39). The reduced risk was stronger for exclusive red wine drinkers (aOR=0.44, 95% CI: 0.19-0.92) than white wine drinkers (aOR=0.79, 95% CI: 0.46-1.34), although most women drank both types of wine. Risk decreased with increasing cumulative consumption of any wine (P-trend<0.05) and was evident for the serous histotype. Wine consumption initiated prior to age 50 was associated with a risk reduction (e.g., at 40-49years, aOR=0.58, 95% CI: 0.42-0.78), but not drinking initiated after 50years of age. For any type, level, or age at initiation of alcohol consumption, we found no increased risks. For the moderate consumption in this study, higher levels of wine consumption were generally associated with risk reductions; reductions may be stronger for red wine. Our results suggest that alcohol consumption that is guideline concordant will not increase epithelial ovarian cancer risk. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Remaining Lifetime After Recognition of Terminal Illness Depends on Diagnosis: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Bell, Cathrine; Nielsen, Mette K; Neergaard, Mette A; Guldin, Mai-Britt; Jensen, Anders B

    2017-01-01

    Timely recognition of the terminal phase of life will benefit patients and caregivers as it may facilitate advance care planning and support. The objective of this study was to investigate the remaining lifetime of patients entering a physician-assessed terminal phase and to analyze variation in remaining lifetime according to diagnosis and sociodemographic factors. Danish National Health Registers were used to establish a prospective cohort of adult patients formally registered with drug reimbursement due to terminal illness in 2012 and followed until June 2014. Of the 11,062 included patients, the median remaining lifetime was 55 days and 37% of the patients died within the first month. The majority suffered from cancer (89%). Patients with a noncancer disease had the shortest remaining lifetime (17 days), considerably shorter than patients with cancer (59 days). Patients with prostate cancer had the longest remaining lifetime (76 days), whereas those with hematologic cancer had the shortest among cancer patients (41 days). Compared with lung cancer patients, the probability of death within 30 days were higher for patients with noncancer disease and lower for those with prostate or colorectal cancer. Male gender and high age were associated with higher risk of dying within 30 days. This study found a median remaining lifetime of 55 days after recognition of terminal illness. Remaining lifetime differed between cancer and noncancer patients and according to age and gender. Increased attention should be directed toward timely recognition of the transition into the terminal phase, especially for patients with noncancer disease. Copyright © 2016 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Development and validation of a new population-based simulation model of osteoarthritis in New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Wilson, R; Abbott, J H

    2018-04-01

    To describe the construction and preliminary validation of a new population-based microsimulation model developed to analyse the health and economic burden and cost-effectiveness of treatments for knee osteoarthritis (OA) in New Zealand (NZ). We developed the New Zealand Management of Osteoarthritis (NZ-MOA) model, a discrete-time state-transition microsimulation model of the natural history of radiographic knee OA. In this article, we report on the model structure, derivation of input data, validation of baseline model parameters against external data sources, and validation of model outputs by comparison of the predicted population health loss with previous estimates. The NZ-MOA model simulates both the structural progression of radiographic knee OA and the stochastic development of multiple disease symptoms. Input parameters were sourced from NZ population-based data where possible, and from international sources where NZ-specific data were not available. The predicted distributions of structural OA severity and health utility detriments associated with OA were externally validated against other sources of evidence, and uncertainty resulting from key input parameters was quantified. The resulting lifetime and current population health-loss burden was consistent with estimates of previous studies. The new NZ-MOA model provides reliable estimates of the health loss associated with knee OA in the NZ population. The model structure is suitable for analysis of the effects of a range of potential treatments, and will be used in future work to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of recommended interventions within the NZ healthcare system. Copyright © 2018 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Association of Overweight with the Prevalence of Lifetime Psychiatric Disorders and Suicidality: General Population-based Study in Korea

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Many epidemiological studies suggest that overweight is associated with an elevated risk of psychiatric disorders and suicidal tendency. However, findings vary across studies, and some have contradictory results. We investigated the relationship of overweight with a range of psychiatric disorders and suicidality in the Korean general population. A multistage cluster sampling design was adopted. A total of 6,022 participants aged 18–74 years completed face-to-face interviews (response rate: 78.7%) including assessment of psychiatric disorders, suicidality, and height and weight. Overweight (defined as body mass index of ≥ 25) was associated with an increase in the lifetime prevalence of depressive disorders (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07–1.77), suicidal ideation (AOR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.20–1.68), and suicidal plans (AOR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.02–2.03), controlling for sociodemographic variables. Subgroup analysis found that the association between overweight and depressive disorders exists only in women aged 18–44 years (AOR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.07–2.89) while the association of overweight with suicidal ideation (AOR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.53–2.82) and suicide plans (AOR, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.25–5.37) existed only in men aged 18–44 years. Overweight was associated with increased odds of nicotine use disorders in women aged 18–44 years (AOR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.02–5.43), but the association was in the opposite direction in men aged 45–74 years (AOR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.43–0.94). In conclusion, overweight is related to various psychiatric disorders and suicidality in Korea. Policy makers and clinicians should pay more attention to the mental health of overweight individuals. PMID:27709862

  8. Association of Overweight with the Prevalence of Lifetime Psychiatric Disorders and Suicidality: General Population-based Study in Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Byung Soo; Chang, Sung Man; Seong, Su Jeong; Park, Jee Eun; Park, Subin; Hong, Jin Pyo; Bae, Jae Nam; Cho, Seong Jin; Hahm, Bong Jin; Lee, Dong Woo; Park, Jong Ik; Lee, Jun Young; Jeon, Hong Jin; Cho, Maeng Je

    2016-11-01

    Many epidemiological studies suggest that overweight is associated with an elevated risk of psychiatric disorders and suicidal tendency. However, findings vary across studies, and some have contradictory results. We investigated the relationship of overweight with a range of psychiatric disorders and suicidality in the Korean general population. A multistage cluster sampling design was adopted. A total of 6,022 participants aged 18-74 years completed face-to-face interviews (response rate: 78.7%) including assessment of psychiatric disorders, suicidality, and height and weight. Overweight (defined as body mass index of ≥ 25) was associated with an increase in the lifetime prevalence of depressive disorders (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.77), suicidal ideation (AOR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.20-1.68), and suicidal plans (AOR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.02-2.03), controlling for sociodemographic variables. Subgroup analysis found that the association between overweight and depressive disorders exists only in women aged 18-44 years (AOR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.07-2.89) while the association of overweight with suicidal ideation (AOR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.53-2.82) and suicide plans (AOR, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.25-5.37) existed only in men aged 18-44 years. Overweight was associated with increased odds of nicotine use disorders in women aged 18-44 years (AOR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.02-5.43), but the association was in the opposite direction in men aged 45-74 years (AOR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.43-0.94). In conclusion, overweight is related to various psychiatric disorders and suicidality in Korea. Policy makers and clinicians should pay more attention to the mental health of overweight individuals.

  9. Heuristic Modeling for TRMM Lifetime Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jordan, P. S.; Sharer, P. J.; DeFazio, R. L.

    1996-01-01

    Analysis time for computing the expected mission lifetimes of proposed frequently maneuvering, tightly altitude constrained, Earth orbiting spacecraft have been significantly reduced by means of a heuristic modeling method implemented in a commercial-off-the-shelf spreadsheet product (QuattroPro) running on a personal computer (PC). The method uses a look-up table to estimate the maneuver frequency per month as a function of the spacecraft ballistic coefficient and the solar flux index, then computes the associated fuel use by a simple engine model. Maneuver frequency data points are produced by means of a single 1-month run of traditional mission analysis software for each of the 12 to 25 data points required for the table. As the data point computations are required only a mission design start-up and on the occasion of significant mission redesigns, the dependence on time consuming traditional modeling methods is dramatically reduced. Results to date have agreed with traditional methods to within 1 to 1.5 percent. The spreadsheet approach is applicable to a wide variety of Earth orbiting spacecraft with tight altitude constraints. It will be particularly useful to such missions as the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission scheduled for launch in 1997, whose mission lifetime calculations are heavily dependent on frequently revised solar flux predictions.

  10. POPULATION-BASED EXPOSURE MODELING FOR AIR POLLUTANTS AT EPA'S NATIONAL EXPOSURE RESEARCH LABORATORY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA's National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) has been developing, applying, and evaluating population-based exposure models to improve our understanding of the variability in personal exposure to air pollutants. Estimates of population variability are needed for E...

  11. Estimating and modeling the cure fraction in population-based cancer survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Lambert, Paul C; Thompson, John R; Weston, Claire L; Dickman, Paul W

    2007-07-01

    In population-based cancer studies, cure is said to occur when the mortality (hazard) rate in the diseased group of individuals returns to the same level as that expected in the general population. The cure fraction (the proportion of patients cured of disease) is of interest to patients and is a useful measure to monitor trends in survival of curable disease. There are 2 main types of cure fraction model, the mixture cure fraction model and the non-mixture cure fraction model, with most previous work concentrating on the mixture cure fraction model. In this paper, we extend the parametric non-mixture cure fraction model to incorporate background mortality, thus providing estimates of the cure fraction in population-based cancer studies. We compare the estimates of relative survival and the cure fraction between the 2 types of model and also investigate the importance of modeling the ancillary parameters in the selected parametric distribution for both types of model.

  12. Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based human exposure modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER meas...

  13. Validation of population-based disease simulation models: a review of concepts and methods

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Computer simulation models are used increasingly to support public health research and policy, but questions about their quality persist. The purpose of this article is to review the principles and methods for validation of population-based disease simulation models. Methods We developed a comprehensive framework for validating population-based chronic disease simulation models and used this framework in a review of published model validation guidelines. Based on the review, we formulated a set of recommendations for gathering evidence of model credibility. Results Evidence of model credibility derives from examining: 1) the process of model development, 2) the performance of a model, and 3) the quality of decisions based on the model. Many important issues in model validation are insufficiently addressed by current guidelines. These issues include a detailed evaluation of different data sources, graphical representation of models, computer programming, model calibration, between-model comparisons, sensitivity analysis, and predictive validity. The role of external data in model validation depends on the purpose of the model (e.g., decision analysis versus prediction). More research is needed on the methods of comparing the quality of decisions based on different models. Conclusion As the role of simulation modeling in population health is increasing and models are becoming more complex, there is a need for further improvements in model validation methodology and common standards for evaluating model credibility. PMID:21087466

  14. Lifetime occupational exposure to metals and welding fumes, and risk of glioma: a 7-country population-based case-control study.

    PubMed

    Parent, Marie-Elise; Turner, Michelle C; Lavoué, Jérôme; Richard, Hugues; Figuerola, Jordi; Kincl, Laurel; Richardson, Lesley; Benke, Geza; Blettner, Maria; Fleming, Sarah; Hours, Martine; Krewski, Daniel; McLean, David; Sadetzki, Siegal; Schlaefer, Klaus; Schlehofer, Brigitte; Schüz, Joachim; Siemiatycki, Jack; van Tongeren, Martie; Cardis, Elisabeth

    2017-08-25

    Brain tumor etiology is poorly understood. Based on their ability to pass through the blood-brain barrier, it has been hypothesized that exposure to metals may increase the risk of brain cancer. Results from the few epidemiological studies on this issue are limited and inconsistent. We investigated the relationship between glioma risk and occupational exposure to five metals - lead, cadmium, nickel, chromium and iron- as well as to welding fumes, using data from the seven-country INTEROCC study. A total of 1800 incident glioma cases and 5160 controls aged 30-69 years were included in the analysis. Lifetime occupational exposure to the agents was assessed using the INTEROCC JEM, a modified version of the Finnish job exposure matrix FINJEM. In general, cases had a slightly higher prevalence of exposure to the various metals and welding fumes than did controls, with the prevalence among ever exposed ranging between 1.7 and 2.2% for cadmium to 10.2 and 13.6% for iron among controls and cases, respectively. However, in multivariable logistic regression analyses, there was no association between ever exposure to any of the agents and risk of glioma with odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) ranging from 0.8 (0.7-1.0) for lead to 1.1 (0.7-1.6) for cadmium. Results were consistent across models considering cumulative exposure or duration, as well as in all sensitivity analyses conducted. Findings from this large-scale international study provide no evidence for an association between occupational exposure to any of the metals under scrutiny or welding fumes, and risk of glioma.

  15. Lifetime and 12-month prevalence of eating disorders amongst women in mid-life: a population-based study of diagnoses and risk factors.

    PubMed

    Micali, Nadia; Martini, Maria G; Thomas, Jennifer J; Eddy, Kamryn T; Kothari, Radha; Russell, Ellie; Bulik, Cynthia M; Treasure, Janet

    2017-01-17

    Eating disorders (EDs) are common amongst women; however, no research has specifically investigated the lifetime/12-month prevalence of eating disorders amongst women in mid-life (i.e., fourth and fifth decade of life) and the relevant longitudinal risk factors. We aimed to investigate the lifetime and 12-month prevalence of EDs and lifetime health service use and to identify childhood, parenting, and personality risk factors. This is a two-phase prevalence study, nested within an existing longitudinal community-based sample of women in mid-life. A total of 5658 women from the UK Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; enrolled 20 years earlier) participated. ED diagnoses were obtained using validated structured interviews. Weighted analyses were carried out accounting for the two-phase methodology to obtain prevalence figures and to carry out risk factor regression analyses. By mid-life, 15.3% (95% confidence intervals, 13.5-17.4%) of women had met criteria for a lifetime ED. The 12-month prevalence of EDs was 3.6%. Childhood sexual abuse was prospectively associated with all binge/purge type disorders and an external locus of control was associated with binge-eating disorder. Better maternal care was protective for bulimia nervosa. Childhood life events and interpersonal sensitivity were associated with all EDs. By mid-life a significant proportion of women will experience an ED, and few women accessed healthcare. Active EDs are common in mid-life, both due to new onset and chronic disorders. Increased awareness of the full spectrum of EDs in this stage of life and adequate service provision is important. This is the first study to investigate childhood and personality risk factors for full threshold and sub-threshold EDs and to identify common predictors for full and sub-threshold EDs. Further research should clarify the role of preventable risk factors on both full and sub-threshold EDs.

  16. Lifetime Cost and Performance model for photovoltaic power systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Borden, C. S.

    1978-01-01

    This paper describes the approach and procedures of the Lifetime Cost and Performance (LCP) model for photovoltaic power systems. The LCP model is designed to evaluate the impact of alternative initial design and recurrent policy decisions on both cost and power output over the lifetime of a photovoltaic power plant. LCP is, therefore, useful to system designers and operators for addressing questions relating to optimal system configuration, installation activities, level of effort and timing of operations/maintenance actions, allowable degradation and replacement options.

  17. Lifetime injury prevention: the sport profile model.

    PubMed

    Webborn, Nick

    2012-03-01

    Participation in sporting activities carries an injury risk. Conversely, the increased awareness that physical inactivity is a major risk factor for disease has led government agencies and the medical community to encourage increased levels of physical activity. Many people will achieve this through participation in sport. Injury inevitably leads to a reduction in participation on a temporary or permanent basis, but the injury experience may also influence the lifelong physical activity behaviour. Few studies adequately examine the possible long-term consequences of sport participation after the competitive period has been completed, but by understanding the patterns of injuries in different sports one test can develop strategies to prevent and better manage the conditions that occur and promote lifelong physical activity. There is a need to develop models of understanding of injury risk at different life phases and levels of participation in a specific sport. The risk assessment of sport participation has to be relevant to a particular sport, the level of participation, skill, age and potential future health consequences. This article describes a sport-specific model which will improve guidance for coaches and healthcare professionals. It poses questions for sports physicians, healthcare providers, educators and for governing bodies of sports to address in a systematic fashion. Additionally the governing body, as an employer, will need to meet the requirements for risk assessment for professional sport and its ethical responsibility to the athlete.

  18. Education and Successful Aging Trajectories: A Longitudinal Population-Based Latent Variable Modelling Analysis.

    PubMed

    Cosco, Theodore D; Stephan, Blossom C M; Brayne, Carol; Muniz, Graciela

    2017-12-01

    As the population ages, interest is increasing in studying aging well. However, more refined means of examining predictors of biopsychosocial conceptualizations of successful aging (SA) are required. Existing evidence of the relationship between early-life education and later-life SA is unclear. The Successful Aging Index (SAI) was mapped onto the Cognitive Function and Aging Study (CFAS), a longitudinal population-based cohort (n = 1,141). SAI scores were examined using growth mixture modelling (GMM) to identify SA trajectories. Unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, occupational status) ordinal logistic regressions were conducted to examine the association between trajectory membership and education level. GMM identified a three-class model, capturing high, moderate, and low functioning trajectories. Adjusted ordinal logistic regression models indicated that individuals in higher SAI classes were significantly more likely to have higher educational attainment than individuals in the lower SAI classes. These results provide evidence of a life course link between education and SA.

  19. Model selection and inference for censored lifetime medical expenditures.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Brent A; Long, Qi; Huang, Yijian; Chansky, Kari; Redman, Mary

    2016-09-01

    Identifying factors associated with increased medical cost is important for many micro- and macro-institutions, including the national economy and public health, insurers and the insured. However, assembling comprehensive national databases that include both the cost and individual-level predictors can prove challenging. Alternatively, one can use data from smaller studies with the understanding that conclusions drawn from such analyses may be limited to the participant population. At the same time, smaller clinical studies have limited follow-up and lifetime medical cost may not be fully observed for all study participants. In this context, we develop new model selection methods and inference procedures for secondary analyses of clinical trial data when lifetime medical cost is subject to induced censoring. Our model selection methods extend a theory of penalized estimating function to a calibration regression estimator tailored for this data type. Next, we develop a novel inference procedure for the unpenalized regression estimator using perturbation and resampling theory. Then, we extend this resampling plan to accommodate regularized coefficient estimation of censored lifetime medical cost and develop postselection inference procedures for the final model. Our methods are motivated by data from Southwest Oncology Group Protocol 9509, a clinical trial of patients with advanced nonsmall cell lung cancer, and our models of lifetime medical cost are specific to this population. But the methods presented in this article are built on rather general techniques and could be applied to larger databases as those data become available. © 2015, The International Biometric Society.

  20. Latent variable mixture models to test for differential item functioning: a population-based analysis.

    PubMed

    Wu, Xiuyun; Sawatzky, Richard; Hopman, Wilma; Mayo, Nancy; Sajobi, Tolulope T; Liu, Juxin; Prior, Jerilynn; Papaioannou, Alexandra; Josse, Robert G; Towheed, Tanveer; Davison, K Shawn; Lix, Lisa M

    2017-05-15

    Comparisons of population health status using self-report measures such as the SF-36 rest on the assumption that the measured items have a common interpretation across sub-groups. However, self-report measures may be sensitive to differential item functioning (DIF), which occurs when sub-groups with the same underlying health status have a different probability of item response. This study tested for DIF on the SF-36 physical functioning (PF) and mental health (MH) sub-scales in population-based data using latent variable mixture models (LVMMs). Data were from the Canadian Multicentre Osteoporosis Study (CaMos), a prospective national cohort study. LVMMs were applied to the ten PF and five MH SF-36 items. A standard two-parameter graded response model with one latent class was compared to multi-class LVMMs. Multivariable logistic regression models with pseudo-class random draws characterized the latent classes on demographic and health variables. The CaMos cohort consisted of 9423 respondents. A three-class LVMM fit the PF sub-scale, with class proportions of 0.59, 0.24, and 0.17. For the MH sub-scale, a two-class model fit the data, with class proportions of 0.69 and 0.31. For PF items, the probabilities of reporting greater limitations were consistently higher in classes 2 and 3 than class 1. For MH items, respondents in class 2 reported more health problems than in class 1. Differences in item thresholds and factor loadings between one-class and multi-class models were observed for both sub-scales. Demographic and health variables were associated with class membership. This study revealed DIF in population-based SF-36 data; the results suggest that PF and MH sub-scale scores may not be comparable across sub-groups defined by demographic and health status variables, although effects were frequently small to moderate in size. Evaluation of DIF should be a routine step when analysing population-based self-report data to ensure valid comparisons amongst sub-groups.

  1. Remaining lifetime modeling using State-of-Health estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beganovic, Nejra; Söffker, Dirk

    2017-08-01

    Technical systems and system's components undergo gradual degradation over time. Continuous degradation occurred in system is reflected in decreased system's reliability and unavoidably lead to a system failure. Therefore, continuous evaluation of State-of-Health (SoH) is inevitable to provide at least predefined lifetime of the system defined by manufacturer, or even better, to extend the lifetime given by manufacturer. However, precondition for lifetime extension is accurate estimation of SoH as well as the estimation and prediction of Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL). For this purpose, lifetime models describing the relation between system/component degradation and consumed lifetime have to be established. In this contribution modeling and selection of suitable lifetime models from database based on current SoH conditions are discussed. Main contribution of this paper is the development of new modeling strategies capable to describe complex relations between measurable system variables, related system degradation, and RUL. Two approaches with accompanying advantages and disadvantages are introduced and compared. Both approaches are capable to model stochastic aging processes of a system by simultaneous adaption of RUL models to current SoH. The first approach requires a priori knowledge about aging processes in the system and accurate estimation of SoH. An estimation of SoH here is conditioned by tracking actual accumulated damage into the system, so that particular model parameters are defined according to a priori known assumptions about system's aging. Prediction accuracy in this case is highly dependent on accurate estimation of SoH but includes high number of degrees of freedom. The second approach in this contribution does not require a priori knowledge about system's aging as particular model parameters are defined in accordance to multi-objective optimization procedure. Prediction accuracy of this model does not highly depend on estimated SoH. This model

  2. Scalable Entity-Based Modeling of Population-Based Systems, Final LDRD Report

    SciTech Connect

    Cleary, A J; Smith, S G; Vassilevska, T K

    2005-01-27

    The goal of this project has been to develop tools, capabilities and expertise in the modeling of complex population-based systems via scalable entity-based modeling (EBM). Our initial focal application domain has been the dynamics of large populations exposed to disease-causing agents, a topic of interest to the Department of Homeland Security in the context of bioterrorism. In the academic community, discrete simulation technology based on individual entities has shown initial success, but the technology has not been scaled to the problem sizes or computational resources of LLNL. Our developmental emphasis has been on the extension of this technology to parallelmore » computers and maturation of the technology from an academic to a lab setting.« less

  3. Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based human exposure modeling.

    PubMed

    Baxter, Lisa K; Stallings, Casson; Smith, Luther; Burke, Janet

    2017-03-01

    Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER measurements. An algorithm for probabilistically estimating AER was developed based on the Lawrence Berkley National Laboratory Infiltration model utilizing housing characteristics and meteorological data with adjustment for window opening behavior. The algorithm was evaluated by comparing modeled and measured AERs in four US cities (Los Angeles, CA; Detroit, MI; Elizabeth, NJ; and Houston, TX) inputting study-specific data. The impact on the modeled AER of using publically available housing data representative of the region for each city was also assessed. Finally, modeled AER based on region-specific inputs was compared with those estimated using literature-based distributions. While modeled AERs were similar in magnitude to the measured AER they were consistently lower for all cities except Houston. AERs estimated using region-specific inputs were lower than those using study-specific inputs due to differences in window opening probabilities. The algorithm produced more spatially and temporally variable AERs compared with literature-based distributions reflecting within- and between-city differences, helping reduce error in estimates of air pollutant exposure.

  4. Calculating excess lifetime risk in relative risk models.

    PubMed Central

    Vaeth, M; Pierce, D A

    1990-01-01

    When assessing the impact of radiation exposure it is common practice to present the final conclusions in terms of excess lifetime cancer risk in a population exposed to a given dose. The present investigation is mainly a methodological study focusing on some of the major issues and uncertainties involved in calculating such excess lifetime risks and related risk projection methods. The age-constant relative risk model used in the recent analyses of the cancer mortality that was observed in the follow-up of the cohort of A-bomb survivors in Hiroshima and Nagasaki is used to describe the effect of the exposure on the cancer mortality. In this type of model the excess relative risk is constant in age-at-risk, but depends on the age-at-exposure. Calculation of excess lifetime risks usually requires rather complicated life-table computations. In this paper we propose a simple approximation to the excess lifetime risk; the validity of the approximation for low levels of exposure is justified empirically as well as theoretically. This approximation provides important guidance in understanding the influence of the various factors involved in risk projections. Among the further topics considered are the influence of a latent period, the additional problems involved in calculations of site-specific excess lifetime cancer risks, the consequences of a leveling off or a plateau in the excess relative risk, and the uncertainties involved in transferring results from one population to another. The main part of this study relates to the situation with a single, instantaneous exposure, but a brief discussion is also given of the problem with a continuous exposure at a low-dose rate. PMID:2269245

  5. A population based statistical model for daily geometric variations in the thorax.

    PubMed

    Szeto, Yenny Z; Witte, Marnix G; van Herk, Marcel; Sonke, Jan-Jakob

    2017-04-01

    To develop a population based statistical model of the systematic interfraction geometric variations between the planning CT and first treatment week of lung cancer patients for inclusion as uncertainty term in future probabilistic planning. Deformable image registrations between the planning CT and first week CBCTs of 235 lung cancer patients were used to generate deformation vector fields (DVFs) representing the geometric variations of lung cancer patients. Using a second deformable registration step, the average DVF per patient was mapped to an average patient CT. Subsequently, the dominant modes of systematic geometric variations were extracted using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). For evaluation a leave-one-out cross-validation was performed. The first three PCA components mainly described cranial-caudal, anterior-posterior, and left-right variations, respectively. Fifty and 112 components were needed to describe correspondingly 75% and 90% of the variance. An overall systematic variation of 3.6mm SD was observed and could be described with an accuracy of about 1.0mm with the PCA model. A PCA based model for systematic geometric variations in the thorax was developed, and its accuracy determined. Such a model can serve as a basis for probability based treatment planning in lung cancer patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Classification of customer lifetime value models using Markov chain

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Permana, Dony; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.; Indratno, Sapto W.; Suprayogi

    2017-10-01

    A firm’s potential reward in future time from a customer can be determined by customer lifetime value (CLV). There are some mathematic methods to calculate it. One method is using Markov chain stochastic model. Here, a customer is assumed through some states. Transition inter the states follow Markovian properties. If we are given some states for a customer and the relationships inter states, then we can make some Markov models to describe the properties of the customer. As Markov models, CLV is defined as a vector contains CLV for a customer in the first state. In this paper we make a classification of Markov Models to calculate CLV. Start from two states of customer model, we make develop in many states models. The development a model is based on weaknesses in previous model. Some last models can be expected to describe how real characters of customers in a firm.

  7. A Practical ANOVA Approach for Uncertainty Analysis in Population-Based Disease Microsimulation Models.

    PubMed

    Sharif, Behnam; Wong, Hubert; Anis, Aslam H; Kopec, Jacek A

    2017-04-01

    To provide a practical approach for calculating uncertainty intervals and variance components associated with initial-condition and dynamic-equation parameters in computationally expensive population-based disease microsimulation models. In the proposed uncertainty analysis approach, we calculated the required computational time and the number of runs given a user-defined error bound on the variance of the grand mean. The equations for optimal sample sizes were derived by minimizing the variance of the grand mean using initial estimates for variance components. Finally, analysis of variance estimators were used to calculate unbiased variance estimates. To illustrate the proposed approach, we performed uncertainty analysis to estimate the uncertainty associated with total direct cost of osteoarthritis in Canada from 2010 to 2031 according to a previously published population health microsimulation model of osteoarthritis. We first calculated crude estimates for initial-population sampling and dynamic-equation parameters uncertainty by performing a small number of runs. We then calculated the optimal sample sizes and finally derived 95% uncertainty intervals of the total cost and unbiased estimates for variance components. According to our results, the contribution of dynamic-equation parameter uncertainty to the overall variance was higher than that of initial parameter sampling uncertainty throughout the study period. The proposed analysis of variance approach provides the uncertainty intervals for the mean outcome in addition to unbiased estimates for each source of uncertainty. The contributions of each source of uncertainty can then be compared with each other for validation purposes so as to improve the model accuracy. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. LCP- LIFETIME COST AND PERFORMANCE MODEL FOR DISTRIBUTED PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Borden, C. S.

    1994-01-01

    The Lifetime Cost and Performance (LCP) Model was developed to assist in the assessment of Photovoltaic (PV) system design options. LCP is a simulation of the performance, cost, and revenue streams associated with distributed PV power systems. LCP provides the user with substantial flexibility in specifying the technical and economic environment of the PV application. User-specified input parameters are available to describe PV system characteristics, site climatic conditions, utility purchase and sellback rate structures, discount and escalation rates, construction timing, and lifetime of the system. Such details as PV array orientation and tilt angle, PV module and balance-of-system performance attributes, and the mode of utility interconnection are user-specified. LCP assumes that the distributed PV system is utility grid interactive without dedicated electrical storage. In combination with a suitable economic model, LCP can provide an estimate of the expected net present worth of a PV system to the owner, as compared to electricity purchased from a utility grid. Similarly, LCP might be used to perform sensitivity analyses to identify those PV system parameters having significant impact on net worth. The user describes the PV system configuration to LCP via the basic electrical components. The module is the smallest entity in the PV system which is modeled. A PV module is defined in the simulation by its short circuit current, which varies over the system lifetime due to degradation and failure. Modules are wired in series to form a branch circuit. Bypass diodes are allowed between modules in the branch circuits. Branch circuits are then connected in parallel to form a bus. A collection of buses is connected in parallel to form an increment to capacity of the system. By choosing the appropriate series-parallel wiring design, the user can specify the current, voltage, and reliability characteristics of the system. LCP simulation of system performance is site

  9. Policy evaluation in diabetes prevention and treatment using a population-based macro simulation model: the MICADO model.

    PubMed

    van der Heijden, A A W A; Feenstra, T L; Hoogenveen, R T; Niessen, L W; de Bruijne, M C; Dekker, J M; Baan, C A; Nijpels, G

    2015-12-01

    To test a simulation model, the MICADO model, for estimating the long-term effects of interventions in people with and without diabetes. The MICADO model includes micro- and macrovascular diseases in relation to their risk factors. The strengths of this model are its population scope and the possibility to assess parameter uncertainty using probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Outcomes include incidence and prevalence of complications, quality of life, costs and cost-effectiveness. We externally validated MICADO's estimates of micro- and macrovascular complications in a Dutch cohort with diabetes (n = 498,400) by comparing these estimates with national and international empirical data. For the annual number of people undergoing amputations, MICADO's estimate was 592 (95% interquantile range 291-842), which compared well with the registered number of people with diabetes-related amputations in the Netherlands (728). The incidence of end-stage renal disease estimated using the MICADO model was 247 people (95% interquartile range 120-363), which was also similar to the registered incidence in the Netherlands (277 people). MICADO performed well in the validation of macrovascular outcomes of population-based cohorts, while it had more difficulty in reflecting a highly selected trial population. Validation by comparison with independent empirical data showed that the MICADO model simulates the natural course of diabetes and its micro- and macrovascular complications well. As a population-based model, MICADO can be applied for projections as well as scenario analyses to evaluate the long-term (cost-)effectiveness of population-level interventions targeting diabetes and its complications in the Netherlands or similar countries. © 2015 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2015 Diabetes UK.

  10. Comparative performance of diabetes-specific and general population-based cardiovascular risk assessment models in people with diabetes mellitus.

    PubMed

    Echouffo-Tcheugui, J-B; Kengne, A P

    2013-10-01

    Multivariable models for estimating cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in people with diabetes comprise general population-based models and those from diabetic cohorts. Whether one set of models should receive preference is unclear. We evaluated the evidence on direct comparisons of the performance of general population vs diabetes-specific CVD risk models in people with diabetes. MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched up to March 2013. Two reviewers independently identified studies that compared the performance of general CVD models vs diabetes-specific ones in the same group of people with diabetes. Independent, dual data extraction on study design, risk models, outcomes; and measures of performance was conducted. Eleven articles reporting on 22 pair wise comparisons of a diabetes-specific model (UKPDS, ADVANCE and DCS risk models) to a general population model (three variants of the Framingham model, Prospective Cardiovascular Münster [PROCAM] score, CardioRisk Manager [CRM], Joint British Societies Coronary Risk Chart [JBSRC], Progetto Cuore algorithm and the CHD-Riskard algorithm) were eligible. Absolute differences in C-statistic of diabetes-specific vs general population-based models varied from -0.13 to 0.09. Comparisons for other performance measures were unusual. Outcomes definitions were congruent with those applied during model development. In 14 comparisons, the UKPDS, ADVANCE or DCS diabetes-specific models were superior to the general population CVD risk models. Authors reported better C-statistic for models they developed. The limited existing evidence suggests a possible discriminatory advantage of diabetes-specific over general population-based models for CVD risk stratification in diabetes. More robust head-to-head comparisons are needed to confirm this trend and strengthen recommendations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  11. Estimating and modelling cure in population-based cancer studies within the framework of flexible parametric survival models

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background When the mortality among a cancer patient group returns to the same level as in the general population, that is, the patients no longer experience excess mortality, the patients still alive are considered "statistically cured". Cure models can be used to estimate the cure proportion as well as the survival function of the "uncured". One limitation of parametric cure models is that the functional form of the survival of the "uncured" has to be specified. It can sometimes be hard to find a survival function flexible enough to fit the observed data, for example, when there is high excess hazard within a few months from diagnosis, which is common among older age groups. This has led to the exclusion of older age groups in population-based cancer studies using cure models. Methods Here we have extended the flexible parametric survival model to incorporate cure as a special case to estimate the cure proportion and the survival of the "uncured". Flexible parametric survival models use splines to model the underlying hazard function, and therefore no parametric distribution has to be specified. Results We have compared the fit from standard cure models to our flexible cure model, using data on colon cancer patients in Finland. This new method gives similar results to a standard cure model, when it is reliable, and better fit when the standard cure model gives biased estimates. Conclusions Cure models within the framework of flexible parametric models enables cure modelling when standard models give biased estimates. These flexible cure models enable inclusion of older age groups and can give stage-specific estimates, which is not always possible from parametric cure models. PMID:21696598

  12. Estimating and modelling cure in population-based cancer studies within the framework of flexible parametric survival models.

    PubMed

    Andersson, Therese M L; Dickman, Paul W; Eloranta, Sandra; Lambert, Paul C

    2011-06-22

    When the mortality among a cancer patient group returns to the same level as in the general population, that is, the patients no longer experience excess mortality, the patients still alive are considered "statistically cured". Cure models can be used to estimate the cure proportion as well as the survival function of the "uncured". One limitation of parametric cure models is that the functional form of the survival of the "uncured" has to be specified. It can sometimes be hard to find a survival function flexible enough to fit the observed data, for example, when there is high excess hazard within a few months from diagnosis, which is common among older age groups. This has led to the exclusion of older age groups in population-based cancer studies using cure models. Here we have extended the flexible parametric survival model to incorporate cure as a special case to estimate the cure proportion and the survival of the "uncured". Flexible parametric survival models use splines to model the underlying hazard function, and therefore no parametric distribution has to be specified. We have compared the fit from standard cure models to our flexible cure model, using data on colon cancer patients in Finland. This new method gives similar results to a standard cure model, when it is reliable, and better fit when the standard cure model gives biased estimates. Cure models within the framework of flexible parametric models enables cure modelling when standard models give biased estimates. These flexible cure models enable inclusion of older age groups and can give stage-specific estimates, which is not always possible from parametric cure models. © 2011 Andersson et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

  13. SUNSPOT AND STARSPOT LIFETIMES IN A TURBULENT EROSION MODEL

    SciTech Connect

    Litvinenko, Yuri E.; Wheatland, M. S.

    2017-01-10

    Quantitative models of sunspot and starspot decay predict the timescale of magnetic diffusion and may yield important constraints in stellar dynamo models. Motivated by recent measurements of starspot lifetimes, we investigate the disintegration of a magnetic flux tube by nonlinear diffusion. Previous theoretical studies are extended by considering two physically motivated functional forms for the nonlinear diffusion coefficient D : an inverse power-law dependence D ∝ B {sup −ν} and a step-function dependence of D on the magnetic field magnitude B . Analytical self-similar solutions are presented for the power-law case, including solutions exhibiting “super fast” diffusion. For the step-functionmore » case, the heat-balance integral method yields approximate solutions, valid for moderately suppressed diffusion in the spot. The accuracy of the resulting solutions is confirmed numerically, using a method which provides an accurate description of long-time evolution by imposing boundary conditions at infinite distance from the spot. The new models may allow insight into the differences and similarities between sunspots and starspots.« less

  14. Pulmonary Hypoplasia Induced by Oligohydramnios: Findings from Animal Models and a Population-Based Study.

    PubMed

    Wu, Chun-Shan; Chen, Chung-Ming; Chou, Hsiu-Chu

    2017-02-01

    Pulmonary hypoplasia is a substantial cause of death in newborn infants, and oligohydramnios is one of the most commonly associated abnormalities. Lung growth is influenced by physical factors such as the intrauterine space, lung liquid volume and pressure, and fetal breathing movements. During lung development, the main physical force experienced by the lungs is stretching induced by breathing movements and the lung fluid in the airspaces. Oligohydramnios reduces the intrathoracic cavity size, thus disrupting fetal lung growth and leading to pulmonary hypoplasia. The exact mechanism by which oligohydramnios alters the respiratory system structure and the effect of oligohydramnios on long-term respiratory outcomes remain unknown. In this review, we summarize the effects of oligohydramnios on lung development, discuss the mechanisms of oligohydramnios-induced pulmonary hypoplasia identified in various animal studies, and describe the long-term respiratory outcomes in childhood of oligohydramnios-exposed fetuses reported by a population-based study. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  15. Population-based genetic screening for reproductive counseling: the Tay-Sachs disease model.

    PubMed

    Kaback, M M

    2000-12-01

    Since 1970, more than 1.4 million individuals worldwide have been screened voluntarily to determine if they are carriers of the mutant gene for Tay-Sachs Disease (TSD). Employing both enzymatic and molecular methods (for optimal sensitivity and specificity) more than 1400 couples have been identified to be at-risk for TSD in their offspring, i.e., both parents heterozygotes. Through prenatal testing of more than 3200 pregnancies, births of over 600 infants with this uniformly fatal neurodegenerative disease have been prevented. In the United States and Canada, the incidence of TSD in the Jewish population has been reduced by more than 90%. More that 100 mutations in the hexosaminidase A gene (the TSD locus) have been identified to date. Some are associated with later onset or more chronic forms of neuronal storage disease. Two mutations cause a carrier-like "pseudo-deficiency" when enzymatic testing is used (false positives). A number of practical, social, and ethical complexities have been identified in this prototypic population-based effort. Educational and counseling components must be provided both before and after screening. Issues of privacy and confidentiality of test results must be addressed. In certain cultures insurability and employment may be involved. The public perception of the biomedical community as advocates for wide-scale testing and screening may be interpreted, in some systems, as conflicts of interest on the part of entrepreneurial scientists, clinicians, and institutions. Many new opportunities for population-based screening will be evident in this era of genome-related discovery. Accordingly, some of the experiences with Tay-Sachs disease prevention may be instructive.

  16. How are population-based funding formulae for healthcare composed? A comparative analysis of seven models

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Population-based funding formulae act as an important means of promoting equitable health funding structures. To evaluate how policy makers in different jurisdictions construct health funding formulae and build an understanding of contextual influences underpinning formula construction we carried out a comparative analysis of key components of funding formulae across seven high-income and predominantly publically financed health systems: New Zealand, England, Scotland, the Netherlands, the state of New South Wales in Australia, the Canadian province of Ontario, and the city of Stockholm, Sweden. Methods Core components from each formula were summarised and key similarities and differences evaluated from a compositional perspective. We categorised approaches to constructing funding formulae under three main themes: identifying factors which predict differential need amongst populations; adjusting for cost factors outside of needs factors; and engaging in normative correction of allocations for ‘unmet’ need. Results We found significant congruence in the factors used to guide need and cost adjustments. However, there is considerable variation in interpretation and implementation of these factors. Conclusion Despite broadly similar frameworks, there are distinct differences in the composition of the formulae across the seven health systems. Ultimately, the development of funding formulae is a dynamic process, subject to availability of data reflecting health needs, the influence of wider socio-political objectives and health system determinants. PMID:24209410

  17. The demand control model and circadian saliva cortisol variations in a Swedish population based sample (The PART study)

    PubMed Central

    Alderling, Magnus; Theorell, Töres; de la Torre, Bartolomé; Lundberg, Ingvar

    2006-01-01

    Background Previous studies of the relationship between job strain and blood or saliva cortisol levels have been small and based on selected occupational groups. Our aim was to examine the association between job strain and saliva cortisol levels in a population-based study in which a number of potential confounders could be adjusted for. Methods The material derives from a population-based study in Stockholm on mental health and its potential determinants. Two data collections were performed three years apart with more than 8500 subjects responding to a questionnaire in both waves. In this paper our analyses are based on 529 individuals who held a job, participated in both waves as well as in an interview linked to the second wave. They gave saliva samples at awakening, half an hour later, at lunchtime and before going to bed on a weekday in close connection with the interview. Job control and job demands were assessed from the questionnaire in the second wave. Mixed models were used to analyse the association between the demand control model and saliva cortisol. Results Women in low strain jobs (high control and low demands) had significantly lower cortisol levels half an hour after awakening than women in high strain (low control and high demands), active (high control and high demands) or passive jobs (low control and low demands). There were no significant differences between the groups during other parts of the day and furthermore there was no difference between the job strain, active and passive groups. For men, no differences were found between demand control groups. Conclusion This population-based study, on a relatively large sample, weakly support the hypothesis that the demand control model is associated with saliva cortisol concentrations. PMID:17129377

  18. Recording Lifetime Behavior and Movement in an Invertebrate Model

    PubMed Central

    Zou, Sige; Liedo, Pablo; Altamirano-Robles, Leopoldo; Cruz-Enriquez, Janeth; Morice, Amy; Ingram, Donald K.; Kaub, Kevin; Papadopoulos, Nikos; Carey, James R.

    2011-01-01

    Characterization of lifetime behavioral changes is essential for understanding aging and aging-related diseases. However, such studies are scarce partly due to the lack of efficient tools. Here we describe and provide proof of concept for a stereo vision system that classifies and sequentially records at an extremely fine scale six different behaviors (resting, micro-movement, walking, flying, feeding and drinking) and the within-cage (3D) location of individual tephritid fruit flies by time-of-day throughout their lives. Using flies fed on two different diets, full sugar-yeast and sugar-only diets, we report for the first time their behavioral changes throughout their lives at a high resolution. We have found that the daily activity peaks at the age of 15–20 days and then gradually declines with age for flies on both diets. However, the overall daily activity is higher for flies on sugar-only diet than those on the full diet. Flies on sugar-only diet show a stronger diurnal localization pattern with higher preference to staying on the top of the cage during the period of light-off when compared to flies on the full diet. Clustering analyses of age-specific behavior patterns reveal three distinct young, middle-aged and old clusters for flies on each of the two diets. The middle-aged groups for flies on sugar-only diet consist of much younger age groups when compared to flies on full diet. This technology provides research opportunities for using a behavioral informatics approach for understanding different ways in which behavior, movement, and aging in model organisms are mutually affecting. PMID:21559058

  19. Modeling of BN Lifetime Prediction of a System Based on Integrated Multi-Level Information

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Xiaohong; Wang, Lizhi

    2017-01-01

    Predicting system lifetime is important to ensure safe and reliable operation of products, which requires integrated modeling based on multi-level, multi-sensor information. However, lifetime characteristics of equipment in a system are different and failure mechanisms are inter-coupled, which leads to complex logical correlations and the lack of a uniform lifetime measure. Based on a Bayesian network (BN), a lifetime prediction method for systems that combine multi-level sensor information is proposed. The method considers the correlation between accidental failures and degradation failure mechanisms, and achieves system modeling and lifetime prediction under complex logic correlations. This method is applied in the lifetime prediction of a multi-level solar-powered unmanned system, and the predicted results can provide guidance for the improvement of system reliability and for the maintenance and protection of the system. PMID:28926930

  20. Stratospheric lifetime ratio of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from satellite and model climatologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, L.; Hoppe, C. M.; Müller, R.; Dutton, G. S.; Gille, J. C.; Griessbach, S.; Jones, A.; Meyer, C. I.; Spang, R.; Volk, C. M.; Walker, K. A.

    2014-06-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play a key role in stratospheric ozone loss and are strong infrared absorbers that contribute to global warming. The stratospheric lifetimes of CFCs are a measure of their global loss rates that are needed to determine global warming and ozone depletion potentials. We applied the tracer-tracer correlation approach to zonal mean climatologies from satellite measurements and model data to assess the lifetimes of CFCl3 (CFC-11) and CF2Cl2 (CFC-12). We present estimates of the CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio and the absolute lifetime of CFC-12, based on a reference lifetime of 52 yr for CFC-11. We analyzed climatologies from three satellite missions, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the HIgh Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). We found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.47±0.08 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 111(96-132) yr for ACE-FTS, a ratio of 0.46±0.07 and a lifetime of 112(97-133) yr for HIRDLS, and a ratio of 0.46±0.08 and a lifetime of 112(96-135) yr for MIPAS. The error-weighted, combined CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio is 0.47±0.04 and the CFC-12 lifetime estimate is 112(102-123) yr. These results agree with the recent Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) reassessment, which recommends lifetimes of 52(43-67) yr and 102(88-122) yr, respectively. Having smaller uncertainties than the results from other recent studies, our estimates can help to better constrain CFC-11 and CFC-12 lifetime recommendations in future scientific studies and assessments. Furthermore, the satellite observations were used to validate first simulation results from a new coupled model system, which integrates a Lagrangian chemistry transport model into a climate model. For the coupled model we found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.48±0.07 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 110(95-129) yr, based on a ten-year perpetual

  1. Stratospheric lifetime ratio of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from satellite and model climatologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, L.; Hoppe, C. M.; Müller, R.; Dutton, G. S.; Gille, J. C.; Griessbach, S.; Jones, A.; Meyer, C. I.; Spang, R.; Volk, C. M.; Walker, K. A.

    2014-11-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play a key role in stratospheric ozone loss and are strong infrared absorbers that contribute to global warming. The stratospheric lifetimes of CFCs are a measure of their stratospheric loss rates that are needed to determine global warming and ozone depletion potentials. We applied the tracer-tracer correlation approach to zonal mean climatologies from satellite measurements and model data to assess the lifetimes of CFCl3 (CFC-11) and CF2Cl2 (CFC-12). We present estimates of the CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio and the absolute lifetime of CFC-12, based on a reference lifetime of 52 years for CFC-11. We analyzed climatologies from three satellite missions, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the HIgh Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). We found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.47±0.08 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 112(96-133) years for ACE-FTS, a ratio of 0.46±0.07 and a lifetime of 113(97-134) years for HIRDLS, and a ratio of 0.46±0.08 and a lifetime of 114(98-136) years for MIPAS. The error-weighted, combined CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio is 0.46±0.04 and the CFC-12 lifetime estimate is 113(103-124) years. These results agree with the recent Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) reassessment, which recommends lifetimes of 52(43-67) years and 102(88-122) years, respectively. Having smaller uncertainties than the results from other recent studies, our estimates can help to better constrain CFC-11 and CFC-12 lifetime recommendations in future scientific studies and assessments. Furthermore, the satellite observations were used to validate first simulation results from a new coupled model system, which integrates a Lagrangian chemistry transport model into a climate model. For the coupled model we found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.48±0.07 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 110(95-129) years

  2. Simulation of Population-Based Commuter Exposure to NO2 Using Different Air Pollution Models

    PubMed Central

    Ragettli, Martina S.; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Braun-Fahrländer, Charlotte; de Nazelle, Audrey; Schindler, Christian; Ineichen, Alex; Ducret-Stich, Regina E.; Perez, Laura; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Künzli, Nino; Phuleria, Harish C.

    2014-01-01

    We simulated commuter routes and long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution during commute in a representative population sample in Basel (Switzerland), and evaluated three air pollution models with different spatial resolution for estimating commute exposures to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) as a marker of long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution. Our approach includes spatially and temporally resolved data on actual commuter routes, travel modes and three air pollution models. Annual mean NO2 commuter exposures were similar between models. However, we found more within-city and within-subject variability in annual mean (±SD) NO2 commuter exposure with a high resolution dispersion model (40 ± 7 µg m−3, range: 21–61) than with a dispersion model with a lower resolution (39 ± 5 µg m−3; range: 24–51), and a land use regression model (41 ± 5 µg m−3; range: 24–54). Highest median cumulative exposures were calculated along motorized transport and bicycle routes, and the lowest for walking. For estimating commuter exposure within a city and being interested also in small-scale variability between roads, a model with a high resolution is recommended. For larger scale epidemiological health assessment studies, models with a coarser spatial resolution are likely sufficient, especially when study areas include suburban and rural areas. PMID:24823664

  3. A population-based model for priority setting across the care continuum and across modalities.

    PubMed

    Segal, Leonie; Mortimer, Duncan

    2006-03-28

    The Health-sector Wide (HsW) priority setting model is designed to shift the focus of priority setting away from 'program budgets'--that are typically defined by modality or disease-stage--and towards well-defined target populations with a particular disease/health problem. The key features of the HsW model are i) a disease/health problem framework, ii) a sequential approach to covering the entire health sector, iii) comprehensiveness of scope in identifying intervention options and iv) the use of objective evidence. The HsW model redefines the unit of analysis over which priorities are set to include all mutually exclusive and complementary interventions for the prevention and treatment of each disease/health problem under consideration. The HsW model is therefore incompatible with the fragmented approach to priority setting across multiple program budgets that currently characterises allocation in many health systems. The HsW model employs standard cost-utility analyses and decision-rules with the aim of maximising QALYs contingent upon the global budget constraint for the set of diseases/health problems under consideration. It is recognised that the objective function may include non-health arguments that would imply a departure from simple QALY maximisation and that political constraints frequently limit degrees of freedom. In addressing these broader considerations, the HsW model can be modified to maximise value-weighted QALYs contingent upon the global budget constraint and any political constraints bearing upon allocation decisions. The HsW model has been applied in several contexts, recently to osteoarthritis, that has demonstrated both its practical application and its capacity to derive clear evidenced-based policy recommendations. Comparisons with other approaches to priority setting, such as Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis (PBMA) and modality-based cost-effectiveness comparisons, as typified by Australia's Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory

  4. A population-based model for priority setting across the care continuum and across modalities

    PubMed Central

    Segal, Leonie; Mortimer, Duncan

    2006-01-01

    Background The Health-sector Wide (HsW) priority setting model is designed to shift the focus of priority setting away from 'program budgets' – that are typically defined by modality or disease-stage – and towards well-defined target populations with a particular disease/health problem. Methods The key features of the HsW model are i) a disease/health problem framework, ii) a sequential approach to covering the entire health sector, iii) comprehensiveness of scope in identifying intervention options and iv) the use of objective evidence. The HsW model redefines the unit of analysis over which priorities are set to include all mutually exclusive and complementary interventions for the prevention and treatment of each disease/health problem under consideration. The HsW model is therefore incompatible with the fragmented approach to priority setting across multiple program budgets that currently characterises allocation in many health systems. The HsW model employs standard cost-utility analyses and decision-rules with the aim of maximising QALYs contingent upon the global budget constraint for the set of diseases/health problems under consideration. It is recognised that the objective function may include non-health arguments that would imply a departure from simple QALY maximisation and that political constraints frequently limit degrees of freedom. In addressing these broader considerations, the HsW model can be modified to maximise value-weighted QALYs contingent upon the global budget constraint and any political constraints bearing upon allocation decisions. Results The HsW model has been applied in several contexts, recently to osteoarthritis, that has demonstrated both its practical application and its capacity to derive clear evidenced-based policy recommendations. Conclusion Comparisons with other approaches to priority setting, such as Programme Budgeting and Marginal Analysis (PBMA) and modality-based cost-effectiveness comparisons, as typified by

  5. An ecological model to factors associated with booster seat use: A population based study.

    PubMed

    Shimony Kanat, Sarit; Gofin, Rosa

    2017-11-01

    Belt-positioning booster seat use (BPB) is an effective technology to prevent severe child injury in cases of car crash. However, in many countries, age-appropriate car restraint use for children aged 4-7 years old remains the lowest among all age groups. The aim of this study was to identify the main determinants of BPB use through a comprehensive approach. An ecological model was used to analyze individual, parent-child relationships, and neighborhood characteristics. Parents of children enrolled in the first and second grades completed a self-reported questionnaire (n=745). The data were subjected to multilevel modeling. The first level examined individual and parent-child relationship variables; in addition the second level tested between neighborhood variance. According to parental self- reports, 56.6% of their children had used a BPB on each car trip during the previous month. The results indicated that the determinants positively related to BPB use were individual and parental; namely, the number of children in the family, the parents' car seat belt use, parental knowledge of children's car safety principles, and a highly authoritative parenting style. Children's temperaments and parental supervision were not associated with BPB use. At the neighborhood level, a small difference was found between neighborhoods for BPB users compared to non-users. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Problem gambling and the five-factor model of personality: a large population-based study.

    PubMed

    Brunborg, Geir Scott; Hanss, Daniel; Mentzoni, Rune Aune; Molde, Helge; Pallesen, Ståle

    2016-08-01

    Knowledge of the personality characteristics of individuals who develop gambling problems is important for designing targeted prevention efforts. Previous studies of the relationship between the five-factor model of personality and gambling problems were based on small samples not representative of the general population. We estimated differences in neuroticism, extroversion, intellect, agreeableness and conscientiousness between non-problem gamblers and individuals with low, moderate and severe gambling problems. Cross-sectional survey. Norway. A total of 10 081 (51.5% female) individuals aged 16-74 years (mean age 46.5 years). The Problem Gambling Severity Index, The Mini-International Personality Item Pool and demographic variables. Differences between groups of gamblers were analysed by ordinary least-squares regression models separately for each personality trait adjusting for gender, age, cohabitation, level of education and work status. Gamblers with low, moderate and severe levels of gambling problems differed significantly from non-problem gamblers in neuroticism (b = 0.16, 0.34 and 0.66, respectively, all P < 0.001) and conscientiousness (b = -0.13, -0.28 and -0.44, respectively, all P < 0.001). Moderate and severe problem gamblers differed from non-problem gamblers in agreeableness (b = -0.21, P < 0.001 and b = -0.20, P = 0.028, respectively). In addition, gambling problems were much more prevalent among men than women, and more prevalent among those who live alone, individuals without tertiary education and among those who are unemployed or on disability pension. A higher level of problem gambling severity appears to be associated with higher scores on neuroticism, and with lower scores on conscientiousness and agreeableness in the Mini-International Personality Item Pool. © 2016 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  7. Peristomal Skin Complications Are Common, Expensive, and Difficult to Manage: A Population Based Cost Modeling Study

    PubMed Central

    Meisner, Søren; Lehur, Paul-Antoine; Moran, Brendan; Martins, Lina; Jemec, Gregor Borut Ernst

    2012-01-01

    Background Peristomal skin complications (PSCs) are the most common post-operative complications following creation of a stoma. Living with a stoma is a challenge, not only for the patient and their carers, but also for society as a whole. Due to methodological problems of PSC assessment, the associated health-economic burden of medium to longterm complications has been poorly described. Aim The aim of the present study was to create a model to estimate treatment costs of PSCs using the standardized assessment Ostomy Skin Tool as a reference. The resultant model was applied to a real-life global data set of stoma patients (n = 3017) to determine the prevalence and financial burden of PSCs. Methods Eleven experienced stoma care nurses were interviewed to get a global understanding of a treatment algorithm that formed the basis of the cost analysis. The estimated costs were based on a seven week treatment period. PSC costs were estimated for five underlying diagnostic categories and three levels of severity. The estimated treatment costs of severe cases of PSCs were increased 2–5 fold for the different diagnostic categories of PSCs compared with mild cases. French unit costs were applied to the global data set. Results The estimated total average cost for a seven week treatment period (including appliances and accessories) was 263€ for those with PSCs (n = 1742) compared to 215€ for those without PSCs (n = 1172). A co-variance analysis showed that leakage level had a significant impact on PSC cost from ‘rarely/never’ to ‘always/often’ p<0.00001 and from ‘rarely/never’ to ‘sometimes’ p = 0.0115. Conclusion PSCs are common and troublesome and the consequences are substantial, both for the patient and from a health economic viewpoint. PSCs should be diagnosed and treated at an early stage to prevent long term, debilitating and expensive complications. PMID:22679479

  8. Validation and extension of the PREMM1,2 model in a population-based cohort of colorectal cancer patients

    PubMed Central

    Balaguer, Francesc; Balmaña, Judith; Castellví-Bel, Sergi; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Andreu, Montserrat; Llor, Xavier; Jover, Rodrigo; Syngal, Sapna; Castells, Antoni

    2008-01-01

    Summary Background and aims Early recognition of patients at risk for Lynch syndrome is critical but often difficult. Recently, a predictive algorithm -the PREMM1,2 model- has been developed to quantify the risk of carrying a germline mutation in the mismatch repair (MMR) genes, MLH1 and MSH2. However, its performance in an unselected, population-based colorectal cancer population as well as its performance in combination with tumor MMR testing are unknown. Methods We included all colorectal cancer cases from the EPICOLON study, a prospective, multicenter, population-based cohort (n=1,222). All patients underwent tumor microsatellite instability analysis and immunostaining for MLH1 and MSH2, and those with MMR deficiency (n=91) underwent tumor BRAF V600E mutation analysis and MLH1/MSH2 germline testing. Results The PREMM1,2 model with a ≥5% cut-off had a sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV) of 100%, 68% and 2%, respectively. The use of a higher PREMM1,2 cut-off provided a higher specificity and PPV, at expense of a lower sensitivity. The combination of a ≥5% cut-off with tumor MMR testing maintained 100% sensitivity with an increased specificity (97%) and PPV (21%). The PPV of a PREMM1,2 score ≥20% alone (16%) approached the PPV obtained with PREMM1,2 score ≥5% combined with tumor MMR testing. In addition, a PREMM1,2 score of <5% was associated with a high likelihood of a BRAF V600E mutation. Conclusions The PREMM1,2 model is useful to identify MLH1/MSH2 mutation carriers among unselected colorectal cancer patients. Quantitative assessment of the genetic risk might be useful to decide on subsequent tumor MMR and germline testing. PMID:18061181

  9. Analysis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis as a multistep process: a population-based modelling study.

    PubMed

    Al-Chalabi, Ammar; Calvo, Andrea; Chio, Adriano; Colville, Shuna; Ellis, Cathy M; Hardiman, Orla; Heverin, Mark; Howard, Robin S; Huisman, Mark H B; Keren, Noa; Leigh, P Nigel; Mazzini, Letizia; Mora, Gabriele; Orrell, Richard W; Rooney, James; Scott, Kirsten M; Scotton, William J; Seelen, Meinie; Shaw, Christopher E; Sidle, Katie S; Swingler, Robert; Tsuda, Miho; Veldink, Jan H; Visser, Anne E; van den Berg, Leonard H; Pearce, Neil

    2014-11-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis shares characteristics with some cancers, such as onset being more common in later life, progression usually being rapid, the disease affecting a particular cell type, and showing complex inheritance. We used a model originally applied to cancer epidemiology to investigate the hypothesis that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a multistep process. We generated incidence data by age and sex from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis population registers in Ireland (registration dates 1995-2012), the Netherlands (2006-12), Italy (1995-2004), Scotland (1989-98), and England (2002-09), and calculated age and sex-adjusted incidences for each register. We regressed the log of age-specific incidence against the log of age with least squares regression. We did the analyses within each register, and also did a combined analysis, adjusting for register. We identified 6274 cases of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from a catchment population of about 34 million people. We noted a linear relationship between log incidence and log age in all five registers: England r(2)=0·95, Ireland r(2)=0·99, Italy r(2)=0·95, the Netherlands r(2)=0·99, and Scotland r(2)=0·97; overall r(2)=0·99. All five registers gave similar estimates of the linear slope ranging from 4·5 to 5·1, with overlapping confidence intervals. The combination of all five registers gave an overall slope of 4·8 (95% CI 4·5-5·0), with similar estimates for men (4·6, 4·3-4·9) and women (5·0, 4·5-5·5). A linear relationship between the log incidence and log age of onset of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is consistent with a multistage model of disease. The slope estimate suggests that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a six-step process. Identification of these steps could lead to preventive and therapeutic avenues. UK Medical Research Council; UK Economic and Social Research Council; Ireland Health Research Board; The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw); the

  10. Performance and Cost-Effectiveness of Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening Scenarios in a Population-Based Setting: A Microsimulation Modeling Analysis in Ontario, Canada.

    PubMed

    Ten Haaf, Kevin; Tammemägi, Martin C; Bondy, Susan J; van der Aalst, Carlijn M; Gu, Sumei; McGregor, S Elizabeth; Nicholas, Garth; de Koning, Harry J; Paszat, Lawrence F

    2017-02-01

    The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) results indicate that computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening for current and former smokers with three annual screens can be cost-effective in a trial setting. However, the cost-effectiveness in a population-based setting with >3 screening rounds is uncertain. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in a population-based setting in Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the effects of screening eligibility criteria. This study used microsimulation modeling informed by various data sources, including the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP), Ontario Cancer Registry, smoking behavior surveys, and the NLST. Persons, born between 1940 and 1969, were examined from a third-party health care payer perspective across a lifetime horizon. Starting in 2015, 576 CT screening scenarios were examined, varying by age to start and end screening, smoking eligibility criteria, and screening interval. Among the examined outcome measures were lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained, percentage ever screened, costs (in 2015 Canadian dollars), and overdiagnosis. The results of the base-case analysis indicated that annual screening was more cost-effective than biennial screening. Scenarios with eligibility criteria that required as few as 20 pack-years were dominated by scenarios that required higher numbers of accumulated pack-years. In general, scenarios that applied stringent smoking eligibility criteria (i.e., requiring higher levels of accumulated smoking exposure) were more cost-effective than scenarios with less stringent smoking eligibility criteria, with modest differences in life-years gained. Annual screening between ages 55-75 for persons who smoked ≥40 pack-years and who currently smoke or quit ≤10 y ago yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,136 Canadian dollars ($33,825 in May 1, 2015, United States dollars) per life-year gained (compared to

  11. Performance and Cost-Effectiveness of Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening Scenarios in a Population-Based Setting: A Microsimulation Modeling Analysis in Ontario, Canada

    PubMed Central

    ten Haaf, Kevin; Tammemägi, Martin C.; Bondy, Susan J.; van der Aalst, Carlijn M.; Gu, Sumei; de Koning, Harry J.

    2017-01-01

    Background The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) results indicate that computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening for current and former smokers with three annual screens can be cost-effective in a trial setting. However, the cost-effectiveness in a population-based setting with >3 screening rounds is uncertain. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in a population-based setting in Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the effects of screening eligibility criteria. Methods and Findings This study used microsimulation modeling informed by various data sources, including the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP), Ontario Cancer Registry, smoking behavior surveys, and the NLST. Persons, born between 1940 and 1969, were examined from a third-party health care payer perspective across a lifetime horizon. Starting in 2015, 576 CT screening scenarios were examined, varying by age to start and end screening, smoking eligibility criteria, and screening interval. Among the examined outcome measures were lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained, percentage ever screened, costs (in 2015 Canadian dollars), and overdiagnosis. The results of the base-case analysis indicated that annual screening was more cost-effective than biennial screening. Scenarios with eligibility criteria that required as few as 20 pack-years were dominated by scenarios that required higher numbers of accumulated pack-years. In general, scenarios that applied stringent smoking eligibility criteria (i.e., requiring higher levels of accumulated smoking exposure) were more cost-effective than scenarios with less stringent smoking eligibility criteria, with modest differences in life-years gained. Annual screening between ages 55–75 for persons who smoked ≥40 pack-years and who currently smoke or quit ≤10 y ago yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,136 Canadian dollars ($33,825 in May 1, 2015, United States dollars) per

  12. Stratospheric lifetime ratio of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from satellite and model climatologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, Lars; Hoppe, Charlotte; Müller, Rolf; Dutton, Geoffrey S.; Gille, John C.; Griessbach, Sabine; Jones, Ashley; Meyer, Catrin I.; Spang, Reinhold; Volk, C. Michael; Walker, Kaley A.

    2015-04-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play a key role in stratospheric ozone loss and are strong infrared absorbers that contribute to global warming. The stratospheric lifetimes of CFCs are a measure of their stratospheric loss rates that are needed to determine global warming and ozone depletion potentials. We applied the tracer-tracer correlation approach to zonal mean climatologies from satellite measurements and model data to assess the lifetimes of CFCl3 (CFC-11) and CF2Cl2 (CFC-12). We present new estimates of the CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio and the absolute lifetime of CFC-12, based on a reference lifetime of 52 yr for CFC-11. We analyzed climatologies from three satellite missions, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the HIgh Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). We found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.47 ± 0.08 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 112(96 - 133) yr for ACE-FTS, a ratio of 0.46 ± 0.07 and a lifetime of 113(97 - 134) yr for HIRDLS, and a ratio of 0.46 ± 0.08 and a lifetime of 114(98 - 136) yr for MIPAS. The error-weighted, combined CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio is 0.46 ± 0.04 and the CFC-12 lifetime estimate is 113(103 - 124) yr. These results are in excellent agreement with the recent Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) reassessment, which recommends lifetimes of 52(43 - 67) yr for CFC-11 and 102(88 - 122) yr for CFC-12, respectively. Having smaller uncertainties than the results from other recent studies, our estimates can help to better constrain CFC-11 and CFC-12 lifetime recommendations in future scientific studies and assessments. Furthermore, the satellite observations were used to validate first simulation results from a new coupled model system, which integrates a Lagrangian chemistry transport model into a climate model. For the coupled EMAC/CLaMS model we found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio

  13. Radiation-induced aging of PDMS Elastomer TR-55: a summary of constitutive, mesoscale, and population-based models

    SciTech Connect

    Maiti, A; Weisgraber, T. H.; Dinh, L. N.

    2016-11-16

    Filled and cross-linked elastomeric rubbers are versatile network materials with a multitude of applications ranging from artificial organs and biomedical devices to cushions, coatings, adhesives, interconnects, and seismic-isolation-, thermal-, and electrical barriers. External factors like mechanical stress, temperature fluctuations, or radiation are known to create chemical changes in such materials that can directly affect the molecular weight distribution (MWD) of the polymer between cross-links and alter the structural and mechanical properties. From a Materials Science point of view it is highly desirable to understand, effect, and manipulate such property changes in a controlled manner. In this report we summarize ourmore » modeling efforts on a polysiloxane elastomer TR-55, which is an important component in several of our systems, and representative of a wide class of filled rubber materials. The primary aging driver in this work has been γ-radiation, and a variety of modeling approaches have been employed, including constitutive, mesoscale, and population-based models. The work utilizes diverse experimental data, including mechanical stress-strain and compression set measurements, as well as MWD measurements using multiquantum NMR.« less

  14. Modeling and prediction for discharge lifetime of battery systems using hybrid evolutionary algorithms.

    PubMed

    Cao, H; Yu, J; Kang, L; Yang, H; Ai, X

    2001-05-01

    A hybrid evolutionary modeling algorithm (HEMA) is proposed to build the discharge lifetime models with multiple impact factors for battery systems as well as make predictions. The main idea of the HEMA is to embed a genetic algorithm (GA) into genetic programming (GP), where GP is employed to optimize the structure of a model, while a GA is employed to optimize its parameters. The experimental results on lithium-ion batteries show that the HEMA works effectively, automatically and quickly in modeling the discharge lifetime of battery systems. The algorithm has some advantages compared with most existing modeling methods and can be applied widely to solving the automatic modeling problems in many fields.

  15. Deployment-based lifetime optimization model for homogeneous Wireless Sensor Network under retransmission.

    PubMed

    Li, Ruiying; Liu, Xiaoxi; Xie, Wei; Huang, Ning

    2014-12-10

    Sensor-deployment-based lifetime optimization is one of the most effective methods used to prolong the lifetime of Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) by reducing the distance-sensitive energy consumption. In this paper, data retransmission, a major consumption factor that is usually neglected in the previous work, is considered. For a homogeneous WSN, monitoring a circular target area with a centered base station, a sensor deployment model based on regular hexagonal grids is analyzed. To maximize the WSN lifetime, optimization models for both uniform and non-uniform deployment schemes are proposed by constraining on coverage, connectivity and success transmission rate. Based on the data transmission analysis in a data gathering cycle, the WSN lifetime in the model can be obtained through quantifying the energy consumption at each sensor location. The results of case studies show that it is meaningful to consider data retransmission in the lifetime optimization. In particular, our investigations indicate that, with the same lifetime requirement, the number of sensors needed in a non-uniform topology is much less than that in a uniform one. Finally, compared with a random scheme, simulation results further verify the advantage of our deployment model.

  16. Applying the effort-reward imbalance model to household and family work: a population-based study of German mothers

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background This paper reports on results of a newly developed questionnaire for the assessment of effort-reward imbalance (ERI) in unpaid household and family work. Methods: Using a cross-sectional population-based survey of German mothers (n = 3129) the dimensional structure of the theoretical ERI model was validated by means of Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). Analyses of Variance were computed to examine relationships between ERI and social factors and health outcomes. Results CFA revealed good psychometric properties indicating that the subscale 'effort' is based on one latent factor and the subscale 'reward' is composed of four dimensions: 'intrinsic value of family and household work', 'societal esteem', 'recognition from the partner', and 'affection from the child(ren)'. About 19.3% of mothers perceived lack of reciprocity and 23.8% showed high rates of overcommitment in terms of inability to withdraw from household and family obligations. Socially disadvantaged mothers were at higher risk of ERI, in particular with respect to the perception of low societal esteem. Gender inequality in the division of household and family work and work-family conflict accounted most for ERI in household and family work. Analogous to ERI in paid work we could demonstrate that ERI affects self-rated health, somatic complaints, mental health and, to some extent, hypertension. Conclusions The newly developed questionnaire demonstrates satisfied validity and promising results for extending the ERI model to household and family work. PMID:22221851

  17. Applying the effort-reward imbalance model to household and family work: a population-based study of German mothers.

    PubMed

    Sperlich, Stefanie; Peter, Richard; Geyer, Siegfried

    2012-01-06

    This paper reports on results of a newly developed questionnaire for the assessment of effort-reward imbalance (ERI) in unpaid household and family work. Using a cross-sectional population-based survey of German mothers (n = 3129) the dimensional structure of the theoretical ERI model was validated by means of Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). Analyses of Variance were computed to examine relationships between ERI and social factors and health outcomes. CFA revealed good psychometric properties indicating that the subscale 'effort' is based on one latent factor and the subscale 'reward' is composed of four dimensions: 'intrinsic value of family and household work', 'societal esteem', 'recognition from the partner', and 'affection from the child(ren)'. About 19.3% of mothers perceived lack of reciprocity and 23.8% showed high rates of overcommitment in terms of inability to withdraw from household and family obligations. Socially disadvantaged mothers were at higher risk of ERI, in particular with respect to the perception of low societal esteem. Gender inequality in the division of household and family work and work-family conflict accounted most for ERI in household and family work. Analogous to ERI in paid work we could demonstrate that ERI affects self-rated health, somatic complaints, mental health and, to some extent, hypertension. The newly developed questionnaire demonstrates satisfied validity and promising results for extending the ERI model to household and family work.

  18. Development of a simplified gravitational model for lifetime studies of lunar satellite orbits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer, Kurt W.

    Future lunar missions will involve long stay times in orbit about the moon. The moon's nonspherical gravitational field is the primary perturbation on a low altitude parking orbit. The objective of this study is to determine the orbital lifetime of a nearly circular low altitude parking orbit. In the present analysis, a simplified gravitational model of the moon is introduced which will enable mission designers to easily predict long term changes in lunar parking orbits at the preliminary design level. The development of a simplified gravitational model with sufficient accuracy is necessary to investigate orbital lifetimes for the large number of orbital parameters possible. Utilization of a simplified model will significantly reduce the required computational time needed to perform this analysis. By investigating the effects of the lunar gravity model on the various parking orbits, the parameters which are important in determining lifetime predictions are identified.

  19. Development of a simplified gravitational model for lifetime studies of lunar satellite orbits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meyer, Kurt W.

    1992-01-01

    Future lunar missions will involve long stay times in orbit about the moon. The moon's nonspherical gravitational field is the primary perturbation on a low altitude parking orbit. The objective of this study is to determine the orbital lifetime of a nearly circular low altitude parking orbit. In the present analysis, a simplified gravitational model of the moon is introduced which will enable mission designers to easily predict long term changes in lunar parking orbits at the preliminary design level. The development of a simplified gravitational model with sufficient accuracy is necessary to investigate orbital lifetimes for the large number of orbital parameters possible. Utilization of a simplified model will significantly reduce the required computational time needed to perform this analysis. By investigating the effects of the lunar gravity model on the various parking orbits, the parameters which are important in determining lifetime predictions are identified.

  20. FPGA implementation of predictive degradation model for engine oil lifetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Idros, M. F. M.; Razak, A. H. A.; Junid, S. A. M. Al; Suliman, S. I.; Halim, A. K.

    2018-03-01

    This paper presents the implementation of linear regression model for degradation prediction on Register Transfer Logic (RTL) using QuartusII. A stationary model had been identified in the degradation trend for the engine oil in a vehicle in time series method. As for RTL implementation, the degradation model is written in Verilog HDL and the data input are taken at a certain time. Clock divider had been designed to support the timing sequence of input data. At every five data, a regression analysis is adapted for slope variation determination and prediction calculation. Here, only the negative value are taken as the consideration for the prediction purposes for less number of logic gate. Least Square Method is adapted to get the best linear model based on the mean values of time series data. The coded algorithm has been implemented on FPGA for validation purposes. The result shows the prediction time to change the engine oil.

  1. [Epidemiology of homicides in Cali, Colombia, 1993-1998: six years of a population-based model].

    PubMed

    Concha-Eastman, Alberto; Espitia, Victoria E; Espinosa, Rafael; Guerrero, Rodrigo

    2002-10-01

    the benefits of a population-based surveillance model are discussed, particularly their usefulness for identifying risk factors and the measures that can be applied to prevent and control this form of violence.

  2. Strongest model-independent bound on the lifetime of Dark Matter

    SciTech Connect

    Audren, Benjamin; Lesgourgues, Julien; Tram, Thomas

    2014-12-01

    Dark Matter is essential for structure formation in the late Universe so it must be stable on cosmological time scales. But how stable exactly? Only assuming decays into relativistic particles, we report an otherwise model independent bound on the lifetime of Dark Matter using current cosmological data. Since these decays affect only the low ℓ multipoles of the CMB, the Dark Matter lifetime is expected to correlate with the tensor-to-scalar ratio r as well as the curvature Ω{sub k}. We consider two models, including r and r+Ω{sub k} respectively, versus data from Planck, WMAP, WiggleZ and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations, withmore » or without the BICEP2 data (if interpreted in terms of primordial gravitational waves). This results in a lower bound on the lifetime of CDM given by 160 Gyr (without BICEP2) or 200 Gyr (with BICEP2) at 95% confidence level.« less

  3. Lifetime prediction modeling of airfoils for advanced power generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karaivanov, Ventzislav Gueorguiev

    The use of gases produced from coal as a turbine fuel offers an attractive means for efficiently generating electric power from our Nation's most abundant fossil fuel resource. The oxy-fuel and hydrogen-fired turbine concepts promise increased efficiency and low emissions on the expense of increased turbine inlet temperature (TIT) and different working fluid. Developing the turbine technology and materials is critical to the creation of these near-zero emission power generation technologies. A computational methodology, based on three-dimensional finite element analysis (FEA) and damage mechanics is presented for predicting the evolution of creep and fatigue in airfoils. We took a first look at airfoil thermal distributions in these advanced turbine systems based on CFD analysis. The damage mechanics-based creep and fatigue models were implemented as user modified routine in commercial package ANSYS. This routine was used to visualize the creep and fatigue damage evolution over airfoils for hydrogen-fired and oxy-fuel turbines concepts, and regions most susceptible to failure were indentified. Model allows for interaction between creep and fatigue damage thus damage due to fatigue and creep processes acting separately in one cycle will affect both the fatigue and creep damage rates in the next cycle. Simulation results were presented for various thermal conductivity of the top coat. Surface maps were created on the airfoil showing the development of the TGO scale and the Al depletion of the bond coat. In conjunction with model development, laboratory-scale experimental validation was executed to evaluate the influence of operational compressive stress levels on the performance of the TBC system. TBC coated single crystal coupons were exposed isothermally in air at 900, 1000, 1100oC with and without compressive load. Exposed samples were cross-sectioned and evaluated with scanning electron microscope (SEM). Performance data was collected based on image analysis

  4. Variable selection for accelerated lifetime models with synthesized estimation techniques.

    PubMed

    Rahaman Khan, Md Hasinur; Shaw, J Ewart H

    2017-01-01

    We develop variable selection approaches for accelerated failure time models, consisting of a group of algorithms based on a synthesis of two widely used techniques in the area of variable selection for survival analysis-the Buckley-James method and the Dantzig selector. Two algorithms are based on proposed modified Buckley-James estimating methods that are designed for high-dimensional censored data. Another two algorithms are based on a two-stage weighted Dantzig selector method where weights are obtained from the two proposed synthesis-based algorithms. The methods are easy to understand and they perform estimation and variable selection simultaneously. Furthermore, they can deal with collinearity among the covariates. We conducted several simulation studies and one empirical analysis with a microarray dataset; these studies demonstrated satisfactory variable selection performance. In addition, the microarray data analysis shows the methods performing similarly to three other correlation-based greedy variable selection techniques in the literature-sure independence screening, tilted correlation screening (TCS), and partial correlation (PC) simple. This empirical study also found that the sure independence screening technique considerably improves the performance of most of the proposed methods.

  5. Modeling of apparent activation energy and lifetime estimation in NAND flash memory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Kyunghwan; Kang, Myounggon; Hwang, Yuchul; Shin, Hyungcheol

    2015-12-01

    Misunderstanding apparent activation energy (E aa ) can cause serious error in lifetime predictions. In this paper, the E aa is investigated for sub 20 nm NAND flash memory. In a high-temperature (HT) regime, the interface trap (N it ) recovery mechanism has the greatest impact on the charge loss. However, the values of E aa and E a(Nit) have a wide difference. Also, the lifetime of the device cannot be estimated by the Arrhenius model due to the E aa roll-off behavior. For the first time, we reveal the origin of abnormal characteristics on E aa and derive a mathematical formula for E aa as a function of each E a(mechanism) in NAND flash memory. Using the proposed E aa equation, the accurate lifetime for the device is estimated.

  6. Maternal lifetime history of depression and depressive symptoms in the prenatal and early postnatal period do not predict infant-mother attachment quality in a large, population-based Dutch cohort study.

    PubMed

    Tharner, Anne; Luijk, Maartje P C M; van Ijzendoorn, Marinus H; Bakermans-Kranenburg, Marian J; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Hofman, Albert; Verhulst, Frank C; Tiemeier, Henning

    2012-01-01

    We examined the effects of maternal history of depressive disorder and the effects of depressive symptoms during pregnancy and the early postpartum period on attachment insecurity and disorganization. A total of 627 mother-infant dyads from the Generation R Study participated in a population-based cohort from fetal life onwards. Maternal history of depression was assessed by diagnostic interviews during pregnancy; maternal peri- and postnatal depressive symptoms were assessed with questionnaires in 506 of these women at 20 weeks pregnancy and two months postpartum; and infant-mother attachment security was observed when infants were aged 14 months. A history of maternal depressive disorder, regardless of severity or psychiatric comorbidity, was not associated with an increased risk of infant attachment insecurity or disorganization. Likewise, maternal peri- and postnatal depressive symptoms were not related to attachment insecurity or disorganization at 14 months. These results are important because mothers from otherwise low risk backgrounds often have previously been depressed or are struggling with non-clinical depressive symptoms during pregnancy and after giving birth. Our findings are discussed in terms of protective factors that may limit the potentially negative effects of maternal depressive symptoms on the infant-mother attachment relationship in the general population. The role of selective attrition and lack of information about the mothers' attachment status for the current null-findings are also discussed.

  7. Semiautomatic bladder segmentation on CBCT using a population-based model for multiple-plan ART of bladder cancer.

    PubMed

    Chai, Xiangfei; van Herk, Marcel; Betgen, Anja; Hulshof, Maarten; Bel, Arjan

    2012-12-21

    The aim of this study is to develop a novel semiautomatic bladder segmentation approach for selecting the appropriate plan from the library of plans for a multiple-plan adaptive radiotherapy (ART) procedure. A population-based statistical bladder model was first built from a training data set (95 bladder contours from 8 patients). This model was then used as constraint to segment the bladder in an independent validation data set (233 CBCT scans from the remaining 22 patients). All 3D bladder contours were converted into parametric surface representations using spherical harmonic expansion. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied in the spherical harmonic-based shape parameter space to calculate the major variation of bladder shapes. The number of dominating PCA modes was chosen such that 95% of the total shape variation of the training data set was described. The automatic segmentation started from the bladder contour of the planning CT of each patient, which was modified by changing the weight of each PCA mode. As a result, the segmentation contour was deformed consistently with the training set to best fit the bladder boundary in the localization CBCT image. A cost function was defined to measure the goodness of fit of the segmentation on the localization CBCT image. The segmentation was obtained by minimizing this cost function using a simplex optimizer. After automatic segmentation, a fast manual correction method was provided to correct those bladders (parts) that were poorly segmented. Volume- and distance-based metrics and the accuracy of plan selection from multiple plans were evaluated to quantify the performance of the automatic and semiautomatic segmentation methods. For the training data set, only seven PCA modes were needed to represent 95% of the bladder shape variation. The mean CI overlap and residual error (SD) of automatic bladder segmentation over all of the validation data were 70.5% and 0.39 cm, respectively. The agreement of plan

  8. Semiautomatic bladder segmentation on CBCT using a population-based model for multiple-plan ART of bladder cancer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chai, Xiangfei; van Herk, Marcel; Betgen, Anja; Hulshof, Maarten; Bel, Arjan

    2012-12-01

    The aim of this study is to develop a novel semiautomatic bladder segmentation approach for selecting the appropriate plan from the library of plans for a multiple-plan adaptive radiotherapy (ART) procedure. A population-based statistical bladder model was first built from a training data set (95 bladder contours from 8 patients). This model was then used as constraint to segment the bladder in an independent validation data set (233 CBCT scans from the remaining 22 patients). All 3D bladder contours were converted into parametric surface representations using spherical harmonic expansion. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied in the spherical harmonic-based shape parameter space to calculate the major variation of bladder shapes. The number of dominating PCA modes was chosen such that 95% of the total shape variation of the training data set was described. The automatic segmentation started from the bladder contour of the planning CT of each patient, which was modified by changing the weight of each PCA mode. As a result, the segmentation contour was deformed consistently with the training set to best fit the bladder boundary in the localization CBCT image. A cost function was defined to measure the goodness of fit of the segmentation on the localization CBCT image. The segmentation was obtained by minimizing this cost function using a simplex optimizer. After automatic segmentation, a fast manual correction method was provided to correct those bladders (parts) that were poorly segmented. Volume- and distance-based metrics and the accuracy of plan selection from multiple plans were evaluated to quantify the performance of the automatic and semiautomatic segmentation methods. For the training data set, only seven PCA modes were needed to represent 95% of the bladder shape variation. The mean CI overlap and residual error (SD) of automatic bladder segmentation over all of the validation data were 70.5% and 0.39 cm, respectively. The agreement of plan

  9. Lifetime growth in wild meerkats: incorporating life history and environmental factors into a standard growth model.

    PubMed

    English, Sinéad; Bateman, Andrew W; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

    2012-05-01

    Lifetime records of changes in individual size or mass in wild animals are scarce and, as such, few studies have attempted to model variation in these traits across the lifespan or to assess the factors that affect them. However, quantifying lifetime growth is essential for understanding trade-offs between growth and other life history parameters, such as reproductive performance or survival. Here, we used model selection based on information theory to measure changes in body mass over the lifespan of wild meerkats, and compared the relative fits of several standard growth models (monomolecular, von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, logistic and Richards). We found that meerkats exhibit monomolecular growth, with the best model incorporating separate growth rates before and after nutritional independence, as well as effects of season and total rainfall in the previous nine months. Our study demonstrates how simple growth curves may be improved by considering life history and environmental factors, which may be particularly relevant when quantifying growth patterns in wild populations.

  10. A practical model of thin disk regenerative amplifier based on analytical expression of ASE lifetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Huang; Chyla, Michal; Nagisetty, Siva Sankar; Chen, Liyuan; Endo, Akira; Smrz, Martin; Mocek, Tomas

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, a practical model of a thin disk regenerative amplifier has been developed based on an analytical approach, in which Drew A. Copeland [1] had evaluated the loss rate of the upper state laser level due to ASE and derived the analytical expression of the effective life-time of the upper-state laser level by taking the Lorentzian stimulated emission line-shape and total internal reflection into account. By adopting the analytical expression of effective life-time in the rate equations, we have developed a less numerically intensive model for predicting and analyzing the performance of a thin disk regenerative amplifier. Thanks to the model, optimized combination of various parameters can be obtained to avoid saturation, period-doubling bifurcation or first pulse suppression prior to experiments. The effective life-time due to ASE is also analyzed against various parameters. The simulated results fit well with experimental data. By fitting more experimental results with numerical model, we can improve the parameters of the model, such as reflective factor which is used to determine the weight of boundary reflection within the influence of ASE. This practical model will be used to explore the scaling limits imposed by ASE of the thin disk regenerative amplifier being developed in HiLASE Centre.

  11. Predicting the breakdown strength and lifetime of nanocomposites using a multi-scale modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Yanhui; Zhao, He; Wang, Yixing; Ratcliff, Tyree; Breneman, Curt; Brinson, L. Catherine; Chen, Wei; Schadler, Linda S.

    2017-08-01

    It has been found that doping dielectric polymers with a small amount of nanofiller or molecular additive can stabilize the material under a high field and lead to increased breakdown strength and lifetime. Choosing appropriate fillers is critical to optimizing the material performance, but current research largely relies on experimental trial and error. The employment of computer simulations for nanodielectric design is rarely reported. In this work, we propose a multi-scale modeling approach that employs ab initio, Monte Carlo, and continuum scales to predict the breakdown strength and lifetime of polymer nanocomposites based on the charge trapping effect of the nanofillers. The charge transfer, charge energy relaxation, and space charge effects are modeled in respective hierarchical scales by distinctive simulation techniques, and these models are connected together for high fidelity and robustness. The preliminary results show good agreement with the experimental data, suggesting its promise for use in the computer aided material design of high performance dielectrics.

  12. Beyond R 0: Demographic Models for Variability of Lifetime Reproductive Output

    PubMed Central

    Caswell, Hal

    2011-01-01

    The net reproductive rate measures the expected lifetime reproductive output of an individual, and plays an important role in demography, ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. Well-established methods exist to calculate it from age- or stage-classified demographic data. As an expectation, provides no information on variability; empirical measurements of lifetime reproduction universally show high levels of variability, and often positive skewness among individuals. This is often interpreted as evidence of heterogeneity, and thus of an opportunity for natural selection. However, variability provides evidence of heterogeneity only if it exceeds the level of variability to be expected in a cohort of identical individuals all experiencing the same vital rates. Such comparisons require a way to calculate the statistics of lifetime reproduction from demographic data. Here, a new approach is presented, using the theory of Markov chains with rewards, obtaining all the moments of the distribution of lifetime reproduction. The approach applies to age- or stage-classified models, to constant, periodic, or stochastic environments, and to any kind of reproductive schedule. As examples, I analyze data from six empirical studies, of a variety of animal and plant taxa (nematodes, polychaetes, humans, and several species of perennial plants). PMID:21738586

  13. Population-based local search for protein folding simulation in the MJ energy model and cubic lattices.

    PubMed

    Kapsokalivas, L; Gan, X; Albrecht, A A; Steinhöfel, K

    2009-08-01

    We present experimental results on benchmark problems in 3D cubic lattice structures with the Miyazawa-Jernigan energy function for two local search procedures that utilise the pull-move set: (i) population-based local search (PLS) that traverses the energy landscape with greedy steps towards (potential) local minima followed by upward steps up to a certain level of the objective function; (ii) simulated annealing with a logarithmic cooling schedule (LSA). The parameter settings for PLS are derived from short LSA-runs executed in pre-processing and the procedure utilises tabu lists generated for each member of the population. In terms of the total number of energy function evaluations both methods perform equally well, however, PLS has the potential of being parallelised with an expected speed-up in the region of the population size. Furthermore, both methods require a significant smaller number of function evaluations when compared to Monte Carlo simulations with kink-jump moves.

  14. Evaluation of observed and modelled aerosol lifetimes using radioactive tracers of opportunity and an ensemble of 19 global models

    SciTech Connect

    Kristiansen, N. I.; Stohl, A.; Olivie, D. J. L.

    2016-03-17

    Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 ( 137Cs) and xenon-133 ( 133Xe) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to theirmore » available aerosol surface area. 137Cs size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation-mode (AM) sulfate aerosols were the main carriers of cesium. Hence, 137Cs can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulfate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas 133Xe behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of 137Cs that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulfate, and 133Xe emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulfate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled 137Cs and 133Xe concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime τ e, calculated from station measurement data taken between 2 and 9 weeks after the start of the emissions, is 14.3 days

  15. Evaluation of Observed and Modelled Aerosol Lifetimes Using Radioactive Tracers of Opportunity and an Ensemble of 19 Global Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kristiansen, N. I.; Stohl, A.; Olivie, D. J. L.; Croft, B.; Sovde, O. A.; Klein, H.; Christoudias, T.; Kunkel, D.; Leadbetter, S. J.; Lee, Y. H.; hide

    2016-01-01

    Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 (Cs-137) and xenon-133 (Xe-133) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to their available aerosol surface area. Cs-137 size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation mode (AM) sulfate aerosols were the main carriers of cesium. Hence, Cs-137 can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulfate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas Xe-133 behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of Cs-137that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulfate, and Xe-133 emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulfate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled Cs-137and Xe-133 concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime e, calculated from station measurement data taken between 2 and 9 weeks after the start of the emissions, is 14.3 days (95

  16. Studies on Mathematical Models of Wet Adhesion and Lifetime Prediction of Organic Coating/Steel by Grey System Theory

    PubMed Central

    Meng, Fandi; Liu, Ying; Liu, Li; Li, Ying; Wang, Fuhui

    2017-01-01

    A rapid degradation of wet adhesion is the key factor controlling coating lifetime, for the organic coatings under marine hydrostatic pressure. The mathematical models of wet adhesion have been studied by Grey System Theory (GST). Grey models (GM) (1, 1) of epoxy varnish (EV) coating/steel and epoxy glass flake (EGF) coating/steel have been established, and a lifetime prediction formula has been proposed on the basis of these models. The precision assessments indicate that the established models are accurate, and the prediction formula is capable of making precise lifetime forecasting of the coatings. PMID:28773073

  17. Studies on Mathematical Models of Wet Adhesion and Lifetime Prediction of Organic Coating/Steel by Grey System Theory.

    PubMed

    Meng, Fandi; Liu, Ying; Liu, Li; Li, Ying; Wang, Fuhui

    2017-06-28

    A rapid degradation of wet adhesion is the key factor controlling coating lifetime, for the organic coatings under marine hydrostatic pressure. The mathematical models of wet adhesion have been studied by Grey System Theory (GST). Grey models (GM) (1, 1) of epoxy varnish (EV) coating/steel and epoxy glass flake (EGF) coating/steel have been established, and a lifetime prediction formula has been proposed on the basis of these models. The precision assessments indicate that the established models are accurate, and the prediction formula is capable of making precise lifetime forecasting of the coatings.

  18. Phase of care prevalence for prostate cancer in New South Wales, Australia: A population-based modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Qingwei; Smith, David P.; Clements, Mark S.; Patel, Manish I.; O’Connell, Dianne L.

    2017-01-01

    Objective To develop a method for estimating the future numbers of prostate cancer survivors requiring different levels of care. Design, setting and participants Analysis of population-based cancer registry data for prostate cancer cases (aged 18–84 years) diagnosed in 1996–2007, and a linked dataset with hospital admission data for men with prostate cancer diagnosed during 2005–2007 in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Methods Cancer registry data (1996–2007) were used to project complete prostate cancer prevalence in NSW, Australia for 2008–2017, and treatment information from hospital records (2005–2007) was used to estimate the inpatient care needs during the first year after diagnosis. The projected complete prevalence was divided into care needs-based groups. We first divided the cohort into two groups based on patient’s age (<75 and 75–84 years). The younger cohort was further divided into initial care and monitoring phases. Cause of death data were used as a proxy for patients requiring last year of life prostate cancer care. Finally, episode data were used to estimate the future number of cases with metastatic progression. Results Of the estimated total of 60,910 men with a previous diagnosis of prostate cancer in 2017, the largest groups will be older patients (52.0%) and younger men who require monitoring (42.5%). If current treatment patterns continue, in the first year post-diagnosis 41% (1380) of patients (<75 years) will have a radical prostatectomy, and 52.6% (1752) will be likely to have either active surveillance, external beam radiotherapy or androgen deprivation therapy. About 3% will require care for subsequent metastases, and 1288 men with prostate cancer are likely to die from the disease in 2017. Conclusions This method extends the application of routinely collected population-based data, and can contribute much to the knowledge of the number of men with prostate cancer and their health care requirements. This could be of

  19. Study of behavior and determination of customer lifetime value(CLV) using Markov chain model

    SciTech Connect

    Permana, Dony, E-mail: donypermana@students.itb.ac.id; Indratno, Sapto Wahyu; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.

    2014-03-24

    Customer Lifetime Value or CLV is a restriction on interactive marketing to help a company in arranging financial for the marketing of new customer acquisition and customer retention. Additionally CLV can be able to segment customers for financial arrangements. Stochastic models for the fairly new CLV used a Markov chain. In this model customer retention probability and new customer acquisition probability play an important role. This model is originally introduced by Pfeifer and Carraway in 2000 [1]. They introduced several CLV models, one of them only involves customer and former customer. In this paper we expand the model by addingmore » the assumption of the transition from former customer to customer. In the proposed model, the CLV value is higher than the CLV value obtained by Pfeifer and Caraway model. But our model still requires a longer convergence time.« less

  20. Study of behavior and determination of customer lifetime value(CLV) using Markov chain model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Permana, Dony; Indratno, Sapto Wahyu; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.

    2014-03-01

    Customer Lifetime Value or CLV is a restriction on interactive marketing to help a company in arranging financial for the marketing of new customer acquisition and customer retention. Additionally CLV can be able to segment customers for financial arrangements. Stochastic models for the fairly new CLV used a Markov chain. In this model customer retention probability and new customer acquisition probability play an important role. This model is originally introduced by Pfeifer and Carraway in 2000 [1]. They introduced several CLV models, one of them only involves customer and former customer. In this paper we expand the model by adding the assumption of the transition from former customer to customer. In the proposed model, the CLV value is higher than the CLV value obtained by Pfeifer and Caraway model. But our model still requires a longer convergence time.

  1. Scoping of models to support population-based regional health planning and management: comparison with the regional operating model in Victoria, Australia.

    PubMed

    Levesque, Jean-Frederic; O'Dowd, John J M; Ní Shé, Éidín M; Weenink, Jan-Willem; Gunn, Jane

    2017-05-01

    Objective The aim of the present study was to try to understand the breadth and comprehensiveness of a regional operating model (ROM) developed within the Victorian Department of Health's North West Metropolitan Region office in Melbourne, Australia. Methods A published literature search was conducted, with additional website scanning, snowballing technique and expert consultation, to identify existing operating models. An analytical grid was developed covering 16 components to evaluate the models and assess the exhaustiveness of the ROM. Results From the 34 documents scoped, 10 models were identified to act as a direct comparator to the ROM. These concerned models from Australia (n=5) and other comparable countries (Canada, UK). The ROM was among the most exhaustive models, covering 13 of 16 components. It was one of the few models that included intersectoral actions and levers of influence. However, some models identified more precisely the planning tools, prioritisation criteria and steps, and the allocation mechanisms. Conclusions The review finds that the ROM appears to provide a wide coverage of aspects of planning and integrates into a single model some of the distinctive elements of the other models scoped. What is known about the topic? Various jurisdictions are moving towards a population-based approach to manage public services with regard to the provision of individual medical and social care. Various models have been proposed to guide the planning of services from a population health perspective. What does this paper add? This paper assesses the coverage of attributes of operating models supporting a population health planning approach to the management of services at the regional or local level. It provides a scoping of current models proposed to organise activities to ensure an integrated approach to the provision of services and compares the scoped models to a model recently implemented in Victoria, Australia. What are the implications for

  2. Fluorescence lifetime imaging of endogenous molecules in live mouse cancer models (Conference Presentation)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svindrych, Zdenek; Wang, Tianxiong; Hu, Song; Periasamy, Ammasi

    2017-02-01

    NADH and FAD are important endogenous fluorescent coenzymes participating in key enzymatic reactions of cellular metabolism. While fluorescence intensities of NADH and FAD have been used to determine the redox state of cells and tissues, this simple approach breaks down in the case of deep-tissue intravital imaging due to depth- and wavelength-dependent light absorption and scattering. To circumvent this limitation, our research focuses on fluorescence lifetimes of two-photon excited NADH and FAD emission to study the metabolic state of live tissues. In our custom-built scanning microscope we combine tunable femtosecond Ti:sapphire laser (operating at 740 nm for NADH excitation and 890 nm for FAD excitation), two GaAsP hybrid detectors for registering individual fluorescence photons and two Becker and Hickl time correlator boards for high precision lifetime measurements. Together with our rigorous FLIM analysis approach (including image segmentation, multi-exponential decay fitting and detailed statistical analysis) we are able to detect metabolic changes in cancer xenografts (human pancreatic cancer MPanc96 cells injected subcutaneously into the ear of an immunodeficient nude mouse), relative to surrounding healthy tissue. Advantageously, with the same instrumentation we can also take high-resolution and high-contrast images of second harmonic signal (SHG) originating from collagen fibers of both the healthy skin and the growing tumor. The combination of metabolic measurements (NADH and FAD lifetime) and morphological information (collagen SHG) allows us to follow the tumor growth in live mouse model and the changes in tumor microenvironment.

  3. Regional differences in population-based cancer survival between six prefectures in Japan: application of relative survival models with funnel plots.

    PubMed

    Ito, Yuri; Ioka, Akiko; Tsukuma, Hideaki; Ajiki, Wakiko; Sugimoto, Tomoyuki; Rachet, Bernard; Coleman, Michel P

    2009-07-01

    We used new methods to examine differences in population-based cancer survival between six prefectures in Japan, after adjustment for age and stage at diagnosis. We applied regression models for relative survival to data from population-based cancer registries covering each prefecture for patients diagnosed with stomach, lung, or breast cancer during 1993-1996. Funnel plots were used to display the excess hazard ratio (EHR) for each prefecture, defined as the excess hazard of death from each cancer within 5 years of diagnosis relative to the mean excess hazard (in excess of national background mortality by age and sex) in all six prefectures combined. The contribution of age and stage to the EHR in each prefecture was assessed from differences in deviance-based R(2) between the various models. No significant differences were seen between prefectures in 5-year survival from breast cancer. For cancers of the stomach and lung, EHR in Osaka prefecture were above the upper 95% control limits. For stomach cancer, the age- and stage-adjusted EHR in Osaka were 1.29 for men and 1.43 for women, compared with Fukui and Yamagata. Differences in the stage at diagnosis of stomach cancer appeared to explain most of this excess hazard (61.3% for men, 56.8% for women), whereas differences in age at diagnosis explained very little (0.8%, 1.3%). This approach offers the potential to quantify the impact of differences in stage at diagnosis on time trends and regional differences in cancer survival. It underlines the utility of population-based cancer registries for improving cancer control.

  4. Bayesian Network Model with Application to Smart Power Semiconductor Lifetime Data.

    PubMed

    Plankensteiner, Kathrin; Bluder, Olivia; Pilz, Jürgen

    2015-09-01

    In this article, Bayesian networks are used to model semiconductor lifetime data obtained from a cyclic stress test system. The data of interest are a mixture of log-normal distributions, representing two dominant physical failure mechanisms. Moreover, the data can be censored due to limited test resources. For a better understanding of the complex lifetime behavior, interactions between test settings, geometric designs, material properties, and physical parameters of the semiconductor device are modeled by a Bayesian network. Statistical toolboxes in MATLAB® have been extended and applied to find the best structure of the Bayesian network and to perform parameter learning. Due to censored observations Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are employed to determine the posterior distributions. For model selection the automatic relevance determination (ARD) algorithm and goodness-of-fit criteria such as marginal likelihoods, Bayes factors, posterior predictive density distributions, and sum of squared errors of prediction (SSEP) are applied and evaluated. The results indicate that the application of Bayesian networks to semiconductor reliability provides useful information about the interactions between the significant covariates and serves as a reliable alternative to currently applied methods. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

  5. There and back again: Iterating between population-based modeling and experiments reveals surprising regulation of calcium transients in rat cardiac myocytes.

    PubMed

    Devenyi, Ryan A; Sobie, Eric A

    2016-07-01

    While many ion channels and transporters involved in cardiac cellular physiology have been identified and described, the relative importance of each in determining emergent cellular behaviors remains unclear. Here we address this issue with a novel approach that combines population-based mathematical modeling with experimental tests to systematically quantify the relative contributions of different ion channels and transporters to the amplitude of the cellular Ca(2+) transient. Sensitivity analysis of a mathematical model of the rat ventricular cardiomyocyte quantified the response of cell behaviors to changes in the level of each ion channel and transporter, and experimental tests of these predictions were performed to validate or invalidate the predictions. The model analysis found that partial inhibition of the transient outward current in rat ventricular epicardial myocytes was predicted to have a greater impact on Ca(2+) transient amplitude than either: (1) inhibition of the same current in endocardial myocytes, or (2) comparable inhibition of the sarco/endoplasmic reticulum Ca(2+) ATPase (SERCA). Experimental tests confirmed the model predictions qualitatively but showed some quantitative disagreement. This guided us to recalibrate the model by adjusting the relative importance of several Ca(2+) fluxes, thereby improving the consistency with experimental data and producing a more predictive model. Analysis of human cardiomyocyte models suggests that the relative importance of outward currents to Ca(2+) transporters is generalizable to human atrial cardiomyocytes, but not ventricular cardiomyocytes. Overall, our novel approach of combining population-based mathematical modeling with experimental tests has yielded new insight into the relative importance of different determinants of cell behavior. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Testing integrated behavioural and biomedical models of activity and activity limitations in a population-based sample.

    PubMed

    Dixon, Diane; Johnston, Marie; Elliott, Alison; Hannaford, Phil

    2012-01-01

    The predictive utility of an integrated model of disability is tested. The integrated model incorporates an impairment based model (International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF)) and the behavioural models. Community dwelling adults (n = 628) completed a postal questionnaire measuring the integrated model. The ability of the model to predict disability in the form of activity limitations (ALs) and walking, in the full community sample and in respondents reporting chronic pain was tested. In both the community and chronic pain samples each version of the integrated model explained a majority (55%-67%) of the variance in ALs but only 11%-29% of the variance in walking behaviour (WB). Impairment directly predicted ALs but did not directly predict WB. Control related cognitions were direct predictors, and mediators, of the relationship between bodily impairment and both ALs and WB. In addition, intentions and outcome expectancies predicted WB. Self-efficacy (SE) was the most consistent predictor of both ALs and WB. An integrated model which combines psychological constructs and impairment is required for an adequate understanding of ALs. By contrast, behavioural models, but not degree of impairment, are necessary to explain activity levels.

  7. Development, calibration, and validation of a U.S. white male population-based simulation model of esophageal adenocarcinoma.

    PubMed

    Hur, Chin; Hayeck, Tristan J; Yeh, Jennifer M; Richards, Ethan M; Richards, Ethan B; Spechler, Stuart J; Gazelle, G Scott; Kong, Chung Yin

    2010-03-01

    The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has risen rapidly in the U.S. and western world. The aim of the study was to begin the investigation of this rapid rise by developing, calibrating, and validating a mathematical disease simulation model of EAC using available epidemiologic data. The model represents the natural history of EAC, including the essential biologic health states from normal mucosa to detected cancer. Progression rates between health states were estimated via calibration, which identified distinct parameter sets producing model outputs that fit epidemiologic data; specifically, the prevalence of pre-cancerous lesions and EAC cancer incidence from the published literature and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. As an illustrative example of a clinical and policy application, the calibrated and validated model retrospectively analyzed the potential benefit of an aspirin chemoprevention program. Model outcomes approximated calibration targets; results of the model's fit and validation are presented. Approximately 7,000 cases of EAC could have been prevented over a 30-year period if all white males started aspirin chemoprevention at age 40 in 1965. The model serves as the foundation for future analyses to determine a cost-effective screening and management strategy to prevent EAC morbidity and mortality.

  8. The application of cure models in the presence of competing risks: a tool for improved risk communication in population-based cancer patient survival.

    PubMed

    Eloranta, Sandra; Lambert, Paul C; Andersson, Therese M-L; Björkholm, Magnus; Dickman, Paul W

    2014-09-01

    Quantifying cancer patient survival from the perspective of cure is clinically relevant. However, most cure models estimate cure assuming no competing causes of death. We use a relative survival framework to demonstrate how flexible parametric cure models can be used in combination with competing-risks theory to incorporate noncancer deaths. Under a model that incorporates statistical cure, we present the probabilities that cancer patients (1) have died from their cancer, (2) have died from other causes, (3) will eventually die from their cancer, or (4) will eventually die from other causes, all as a function of time since diagnosis. We further demonstrate how conditional probabilities can be used to update the prognosis among survivors (eg, at 1 or 5 years after diagnosis) by summarizing the proportion of patients who will not die from their cancer. The proposed method is applied to Swedish population-based data for persons diagnosed with melanoma, colon cancer, or acute myeloid leukemia between 1973 and 2007.

  9. Profit-Based Model Selection for Customer Retention Using Individual Customer Lifetime Values.

    PubMed

    Óskarsdóttir, María; Baesens, Bart; Vanthienen, Jan

    2018-03-01

    The goal of customer retention campaigns, by design, is to add value and enhance the operational efficiency of businesses. For organizations that strive to retain their customers in saturated, and sometimes fast moving, markets such as the telecommunication and banking industries, implementing customer churn prediction models that perform well and in accordance with the business goals is vital. The expected maximum profit (EMP) measure is tailored toward this problem by taking into account the costs and benefits of a retention campaign and estimating its worth for the organization. Unfortunately, the measure assumes fixed and equal customer lifetime value (CLV) for all customers, which has been shown to not correspond well with reality. In this article, we extend the EMP measure to take into account the variability in the lifetime values of customers, thereby basing it on individual characteristics. We demonstrate how to incorporate the heterogeneity of CLVs when CLVs are known, when their prior distribution is known, and when neither is known. By taking into account individual CLVs, our proposed approach of measuring model performance gives novel insights when deciding on a customer retention campaign. The method is dependent on the characteristics of the customer base as is compliant with modern business analytics and accommodates the data-driven culture that has manifested itself within organizations.

  10. Power law distribution of wealth in population based on a modified Equíluz-Zimmermann model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xie, Yan-Bo; Wang, Bing-Hong; Hu, Bo; Zhou, Tao

    2005-04-01

    We propose a money-based model for the power law distribution (PLD) of wealth in an economically interacting population. It is introduced as a modification of the Equíluz and Zimmermann (EZ) model for crowding and information transmission in financial markets. Still, it must be stressed that in the EZ model a PLD without exponential correction is obtained only for a particular parameter, while our pattern will give the exact PLD within a wide range. The PLD exponent depends on the model parameters in a nontrivial way and is exactly calculated in this paper. The numerical results are in excellent agreement with the analytic prediction, and also comparable with empirical data of wealth distribution.

  11. The Best Obesity Indices to Use in a Single Factor Model Indicating Metabolic Syndrome: a Population Based Study.

    PubMed

    Motamed, Nima; Zamani, Farhad; Rabiee, Behnam; Saeedian, Fatemeh Sima; Maadi, Mansooreh; Akhavan-Niaki, Haleh; Asouri, Mohsen

    2016-02-01

    Although metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a major health problem worldwide, there is no universal agreement on its definition. One of the major disagreements is dealing with the issue of obesity in this definition. This study was conducted to determine a preferably better index of obesity which can be interrelated with other components of MetS in a single factor model of MetS. Out of 6140 participants of a cohort study of subjects aged 10-90 years in northern Iran, the baseline data of 5616 participants aged 18-75 was considered.  Confirmatory factor analysis was conducted using AMOS software to evaluate a single factor model of MetS in which blood pressure, triglyceride (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), fasting blood sugar (FBS) and obesity measures including waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI),  waist to hip ratio (WHR) and waist to height ratio (WHtR) were used as indicators of metabolic syndrome. Four single factor models differing from each other by obesity indices were evaluated. The models were evaluated in all 5616 subjects and 4931 subjects without diabetes mellitus according to sex separately. All single factor models had appropriate fit indices with CFI > 0.95, GFI > 0.95 and RMSEA < 0.08 in non-diabetic population, wherein all models obtained the best values of fit indices in men and good fit indices in women. In the general population of men, the single factor models built based on WHR (Chi-square=6.9, df=2, P-value=0.031, RMSEA = 0.028, CI = 0.007-0.052, CFI = 0.994, GFI = 0.999 and AIC = 22.9)  and WHtR (Chi-square = 9.97, df = 2, P-value = 0.007, RMSEA = 0.036, CI = 0.016-0.059, CFI = 0.992, GFI = 0.998 and AIC = 25.97) were fitted properly with data while in th general population of women, the model based on WHR obtained better fit indices (Chi-square = 7.5, df = 2, P-value = 0.023, RMSEA = 0.033, CI = 0.011-0.060, CFI = 0.994, GFI = 0.998 and AIC = 23.5). Models based on WHtR obtained better regression weights than WHR. While single

  12. Effectiveness of integrated care model for type 2 diabetes: A population-based study in Reggio Emilia (Italy).

    PubMed

    Ballotari, Paola; Venturelli, Francesco; Manicardi, Valeria; Ferrari, Francesca; Vicentini, Massimo; Greci, Marina; Pignatti, Fabio; Storani, Simone; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo

    2018-01-01

    To compare the effectiveness of integrated care with that of the diabetes clinic care model in terms of mortality and hospitalisation of type 2 diabetes patients with low risk of complications. Out of 27234 people with type 2 diabetes residing in the province of Reggio Emilia on 31/12/2011, 3071 were included in this cohort study as eligible for integrated care (i.e., low risk of complications) and cared for with the same care model for at least two years. These patients were followed up from 2012 to 2016, for all-cause and diabetes-related mortality and hospital admissions. We performed a Poisson regression model, using the proportion of eligible patients included in the integrated care model for each general practitioner as an instrumental variable. 1700 patients were cared for by integrated care and 1371 by diabetes clinics. Mortality rate ratios were 0.83 (95%CI 0.60-1.13) and 0.95 (95%CI 0.54-1.70) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively, and incidence rate ratios were 0.90 (95%CI 0.76-1.06) and 0.91 (95%CI 0.69-1.20) for all-cause and cardiovascular disease hospitalisation, respectively. For low risk patients with type 2 diabetes, the integrated care model involving both general practitioner and diabetes clinic professionals showed similar mortality and hospitalisation as a model with higher use of specialized care in an exclusively diabetes clinic setting.

  13. Effectiveness of integrated care model for type 2 diabetes: A population-based study in Reggio Emilia (Italy)

    PubMed Central

    Ballotari, Paola; Manicardi, Valeria; Ferrari, Francesca; Vicentini, Massimo; Greci, Marina; Pignatti, Fabio; Storani, Simone; Giorgi Rossi, Paolo

    2018-01-01

    Aims To compare the effectiveness of integrated care with that of the diabetes clinic care model in terms of mortality and hospitalisation of type 2 diabetes patients with low risk of complications. Methods Out of 27234 people with type 2 diabetes residing in the province of Reggio Emilia on 31/12/2011, 3071 were included in this cohort study as eligible for integrated care (i.e., low risk of complications) and cared for with the same care model for at least two years. These patients were followed up from 2012 to 2016, for all-cause and diabetes-related mortality and hospital admissions. We performed a Poisson regression model, using the proportion of eligible patients included in the integrated care model for each general practitioner as an instrumental variable. Results 1700 patients were cared for by integrated care and 1371 by diabetes clinics. Mortality rate ratios were 0.83 (95%CI 0.60–1.13) and 0.95 (95%CI 0.54–1.70) for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, respectively, and incidence rate ratios were 0.90 (95%CI 0.76–1.06) and 0.91 (95%CI 0.69–1.20) for all-cause and cardiovascular disease hospitalisation, respectively. Conclusion For low risk patients with type 2 diabetes, the integrated care model involving both general practitioner and diabetes clinic professionals showed similar mortality and hospitalisation as a model with higher use of specialized care in an exclusively diabetes clinic setting. PMID:29584749

  14. Application of a dynamic population-based model for evaluation of exposure reduction strategies in the baking industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meijster, Tim; Warren, Nick; Heederik, Dick; Tielemans, Erik

    2009-02-01

    Recently a dynamic population model was developed that simulates a population of bakery workers longitudinally through time and tracks the development of work-related sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in each worker. Input for this model comes from cross-sectional and longitudinal epidemiological studies which allowed estimation of exposure response relationships and disease transition probabilities This model allows us to study the development of diseases and transitions between disease states over time in relation to determinants of disease including flour dust and/or allergen exposure. Furthermore it enables more realistic modelling of the health impact of different intervention strategies at the workplace (e.g. changes in exposure may take several years to impact on ill-health and often occur as a gradual trend). A large dataset of individual full-shift exposure measurements and real-time exposure measurements were used to obtain detailed insight into the effectiveness of control measures and other determinants of exposure. Given this information a population wide reduction of the median exposure with 50% was evaluated in this paper.

  15. Partitioning of excess mortality in population-based cancer patient survival studies using flexible parametric survival models

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Relative survival is commonly used for studying survival of cancer patients as it captures both the direct and indirect contribution of a cancer diagnosis on mortality by comparing the observed survival of the patients to the expected survival in a comparable cancer-free population. However, existing methods do not allow estimation of the impact of isolated conditions (e.g., excess cardiovascular mortality) on the total excess mortality. For this purpose we extend flexible parametric survival models for relative survival, which use restricted cubic splines for the baseline cumulative excess hazard and for any time-dependent effects. Methods In the extended model we partition the excess mortality associated with a diagnosis of cancer through estimating a separate baseline excess hazard function for the outcomes under investigation. This is done by incorporating mutually exclusive background mortality rates, stratified by the underlying causes of death reported in the Swedish population, and by introducing cause of death as a time-dependent effect in the extended model. This approach thereby enables modeling of temporal trends in e.g., excess cardiovascular mortality and remaining cancer excess mortality simultaneously. Furthermore, we illustrate how the results from the proposed model can be used to derive crude probabilities of death due to the component parts, i.e., probabilities estimated in the presence of competing causes of death. Results The method is illustrated with examples where the total excess mortality experienced by patients diagnosed with breast cancer is partitioned into excess cardiovascular mortality and remaining cancer excess mortality. Conclusions The proposed method can be used to simultaneously study disease patterns and temporal trends for various causes of cancer-consequent deaths. Such information should be of interest for patients and clinicians as one way of improving prognosis after cancer is through adapting treatment

  16. Diagnosis of Parkinson's disease on the basis of clinical and genetic classification: a population-based modelling study.

    PubMed

    Nalls, Mike A; McLean, Cory Y; Rick, Jacqueline; Eberly, Shirley; Hutten, Samantha J; Gwinn, Katrina; Sutherland, Margaret; Martinez, Maria; Heutink, Peter; Williams, Nigel M; Hardy, John; Gasser, Thomas; Brice, Alexis; Price, T Ryan; Nicolas, Aude; Keller, Margaux F; Molony, Cliona; Gibbs, J Raphael; Chen-Plotkin, Alice; Suh, Eunran; Letson, Christopher; Fiandaca, Massimo S; Mapstone, Mark; Federoff, Howard J; Noyce, Alastair J; Morris, Huw; Van Deerlin, Vivianna M; Weintraub, Daniel; Zabetian, Cyrus; Hernandez, Dena G; Lesage, Suzanne; Mullins, Meghan; Conley, Emily Drabant; Northover, Carrie A M; Frasier, Mark; Marek, Ken; Day-Williams, Aaron G; Stone, David J; Ioannidis, John P A; Singleton, Andrew B

    2015-10-01

    Accurate diagnosis and early detection of complex diseases, such as Parkinson's disease, has the potential to be of great benefit for researchers and clinical practice. We aimed to create a non-invasive, accurate classification model for the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease, which could serve as a basis for future disease prediction studies in longitudinal cohorts. We developed a model for disease classification using data from the Parkinson's Progression Marker Initiative (PPMI) study for 367 patients with Parkinson's disease and phenotypically typical imaging data and 165 controls without neurological disease. Olfactory function, genetic risk, family history of Parkinson's disease, age, and gender were algorithmically selected by stepwise logistic regression as significant contributors to our classifying model. We then tested the model with data from 825 patients with Parkinson's disease and 261 controls from five independent cohorts with varying recruitment strategies and designs: the Parkinson's Disease Biomarkers Program (PDBP), the Parkinson's Associated Risk Study (PARS), 23andMe, the Longitudinal and Biomarker Study in PD (LABS-PD), and the Morris K Udall Parkinson's Disease Research Center of Excellence cohort (Penn-Udall). Additionally, we used our model to investigate patients who had imaging scans without evidence of dopaminergic deficit (SWEDD). In the population from PPMI, our initial model correctly distinguished patients with Parkinson's disease from controls at an area under the curve (AUC) of 0·923 (95% CI 0·900-0·946) with high sensitivity (0·834, 95% CI 0·711-0·883) and specificity (0·903, 95% CI 0·824-0·946) at its optimum AUC threshold (0·655). All Hosmer-Lemeshow simulations suggested that when parsed into random subgroups, the subgroup data matched that of the overall cohort. External validation showed good classification of Parkinson's disease, with AUCs of 0·894 (95% CI 0·867-0·921) in the PDBP cohort, 0·998 (0·992-1·000

  17. Diagnosis of Parkinson’s disease on the basis of clinical–genetic classification: a population-based modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Nalls, Mike A.; McLean, Cory Y.; Rick, Jacqueline; Eberly, Shirley; Hutten, Samantha J.; Gwinn, Katrina; Sutherland, Margaret; Martinez, Maria; Heutink, Peter; Williams, Nigel; Hardy, John; Gasser, Thomas; Brice, Alexis; Price, T. Ryan; Nicolas, Aude; Keller, Margaux F.; Molony, Cliona; Gibbs, J. Raphael; Chen-Plotkin, Alice; Suh, Eunran; Letson, Christopher; Fiandaca, Massimo S.; Mapstone, Mark; Federoff, Howard J.; Noyce, Alastair J; Morris, Huw; Van Deerlin, Vivianna M.; Weintraub, Daniel; Zabetian, Cyrus; Hernandez, Dena G.; Lesage, Suzanne; Mullins, Meghan; Conley, Emily Drabant; Northover, Carrie; Frasier, Mark; Marek, Ken; Day-Williams, Aaron G.; Stone, David J.; Ioannidis, John P. A.; Singleton, Andrew B.

    2015-01-01

    Background Accurate diagnosis and early detection of complex disease has the potential to be of enormous benefit to clinical trialists, patients, and researchers alike. We sought to create a non-invasive, low-cost, and accurate classification model for diagnosing Parkinson’s disease risk to serve as a basis for future disease prediction studies in prospective longitudinal cohorts. Methods We developed a simple disease classifying model within 367 patients with Parkinson’s disease and phenotypically typical imaging data and 165 controls without neurological disease of the Parkinson’s Progression Marker Initiative (PPMI) study. Olfactory function, genetic risk, family history of PD, age and gender were algorithmically selected as significant contributors to our classifying model. This model was developed using the PPMI study then tested in 825 patients with Parkinson’s disease and 261 controls from five independent studies with varying recruitment strategies and designs including the Parkinson’s Disease Biomarkers Program (PDBP), Parkinson’s Associated Risk Study (PARS), 23andMe, Longitudinal and Biomarker Study in PD (LABS-PD), and Morris K. Udall Parkinson’s Disease Research Center of Excellence (Penn-Udall). Findings Our initial model correctly distinguished patients with Parkinson’s disease from controls at an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.923 (95% CI = 0.900 – 0.946) with high sensitivity (0.834, 95% CI = 0.711 – 0.883) and specificity (0.903, 95% CI = 0.824 – 0.946) in PPMI at its optimal AUC threshold (0.655). The model is also well-calibrated with all Hosmer-Lemeshow simulations suggesting that when parsed into random subgroups, the actual data mirrors that of the larger expected data, demonstrating that our model is robust and fits well. Likewise external validation shows excellent classification of PD with AUCs of 0.894 in PDBP, 0.998 in PARS, 0.955 in 23andMe, 0.929 in LABS-PD, and 0.939 in Penn-Udall. Additionally, when our model

  18. Assessing the impact of the Lebanese National Polio Immunization Campaign using a population-based computational model.

    PubMed

    Alawieh, Ali; Sabra, Zahraa; Langley, E Farris; Bizri, Abdul Rahman; Hamadeh, Randa; Zaraket, Fadi A

    2017-11-25

    After the re-introduction of poliovirus to Syria in 2013, Lebanon was considered at high transmission risk due to its proximity to Syria and the high number of Syrian refugees. However, after a large-scale national immunization initiative, Lebanon was able to prevent a potential outbreak of polio among nationals and refugees. In this work, we used a computational individual-simulation model to assess the risk of poliovirus threat to Lebanon prior and after the immunization campaign and to quantitatively assess the healthcare impact of the campaign and the required standards that need to be maintained nationally to prevent a future outbreak. Acute poliomyelitis surveillance in Lebanon was along with the design and coverage rate of the recent national polio immunization campaign were reviewed from the records of the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health. Lebanese population demographics including Syrian and Palestinian refugees were reviewed to design individual-based models that predicts the consequences of polio spread to Lebanon and evaluate the outcome of immunization campaigns. The model takes into account geographic, demographic and health-related features. Our simulations confirmed the high risk of polio outbreaks in Lebanon within 10 days of case introduction prior to the immunization campaign, and showed that the current immunization campaign significantly reduced the speed of the infection in the event poliomyelitis cases enter the country. A minimum of 90% national immunization coverage was found to be required to prevent exponential propagation of potential transmission. Both surveillance and immunization efforts should be maintained at high standards in Lebanon and other countries in the area to detect and limit any potential outbreak. The use of computational population simulation models can provide a quantitative approach to assess the impact of immunization campaigns and the burden of infectious diseases even in the context of population migration.

  19. Does Primary Care Model Effect Healthcare at the End of Life? A Population-Based Retrospective Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Howard, Michelle; Chalifoux, Mathieu; Tanuseputro, Peter

    2017-04-01

    Comprehensive primary care may enhance patient experience at end of life. To examine whether belonging to different models of primary care is associated with end-of-life healthcare use and outcomes. Retrospective population cohort study, using health administrative databases to describe health services and costs in the last six months of life across three primary care models: enrolled to a physician remunerated mainly by capitation, with incentives for comprehensive care and access in some to allied health practitioners (Capitation); remunerated mainly from fee-for-service (FFS) with smaller incentives for comprehensive care (Enhanced FFS); and not enrolled, seeing physicians remunerated solely through FFS (Traditional FFS). People who died from April 1, 2010 to March 31, 2013 in Ontario, Canada. Health service utilization, costs, and place of death. Approximately two-thirds (62.7%) of decedents had more contact with a specialist than family physician. Those in Capitation models were more likely to have the majority of physician services provided by a family physician (44.9% vs. 38.6% in Enhanced FFS and 34.3% in Traditional FFS) and received more home care service days (mean 27.2 vs. 24.2 in Enhanced FFS and 21.7 in Traditional FFS). And 22.5% had a home visit by a family physician. Controlling for potential confounders, decedents spent significantly more days in an institution in Enhanced FFS (1.1, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.9-1.5) and Traditional FFS (2.2, 95% CI: 1.8-2.6) than in Capitation. Decedents in comprehensive primary care models received more care in the community and spent less time in institutions.

  20. Lifetime maps for orbits around Callisto using a double-averaged model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cardoso dos Santos, Josué; Carvalho, Jean P. S.; Prado, Antônio F. B. A.; Vilhena de Moraes, Rodolpho

    2017-12-01

    The present paper studies the lifetime of orbits around a moon that is in orbit around its mother planet. In the context of the inner restricted three-body problem, the dynamical model considered in the present study uses the double-averaged dynamics of a spacecraft moving around a moon under the gravitational pulling of a disturbing third body in an elliptical orbit. The non-uniform distribution of the mass of the moon is also considered. Applications are performed using numerical experiments for the Callisto-spacecraft-Jupiter system, and lifetime maps for different values of the eccentricity of the disturbing body (Jupiter) are presented, in order to investigate the role of this parameter in these maps. The idea is to simulate a system with the same physical parameters as the Jupiter-Callisto system, but with larger eccentricities. These maps are also useful for validation and improvements in the results available in the literature, such as to find conditions to extend the available time for a massless orbiting body to be in highly inclined orbits under gravitational disturbances coming from the other bodies of the system.

  1. Treatment cost and life expectancy of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL): a discrete event simulation model on a UK population-based observational cohort.

    PubMed

    Wang, Han-I; Smith, Alexandra; Aas, Eline; Roman, Eve; Crouch, Simon; Burton, Cathy; Patmore, Russell

    2017-03-01

    Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) is the commonest non-Hodgkin lymphoma. Previous studies examining the cost of treating DLBCL have generally focused on a specific first-line therapy alone; meaning that their findings can neither be extrapolated to the general patient population nor to other points along the treatment pathway. Based on empirical data from a representative population-based patient cohort, the objective of this study was to develop a simulation model that could predict costs and life expectancy of treating DLBCL. All patients newly diagnosed with DLBCL in the UK's population-based Haematological Malignancy Research Network ( www.hmrn.org ) in 2007 were followed until 2013 (n = 271). Mapped treatment pathways, alongside cost information derived from the National Tariff 2013/14, were incorporated into a patient-level simulation model in order to reflect the heterogeneities of patient characteristics and treatment options. The NHS and social services perspective was adopted, and all outcomes were discounted at 3.5 % per annum. Overall, the expected total medical costs were £22,122 for those treated with curative intent, and £2930 for those managed palliatively. For curative chemotherapy, the predicted medical costs were £14,966, £23,449 and £7376 for first-, second- and third-line treatments, respectively. The estimated annual cost for treating DLBCL across the UK was around £88-92 million. This is the first cost modelling study using empirical data to provide 'real world' evidence throughout the DLBCL treatment pathway. Future application of the model could include evaluation of new technologies/treatments to support healthcare decision makers, especially in the era of personalised medicine.

  2. Development of a population-based cost-effectiveness model of chronic graft-versus-host disease in Spain.

    PubMed

    Crespo, Carlos; Pérez-Simón, José Anton; Rodríguez, José Manuel; Sierra, Jordi; Brosa, Max

    2012-08-01

    Chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGvHD) is the leading cause of late nonrelapse mortality (transplant-related mortality) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant. Given that there are a wide range of treatment options for cGvHD, assessment of the associated costs and efficacy can help clinicians and health care providers allocate health care resources more efficiently. The purpose of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP) compared with rituximab (Rmb) and with imatinib (Imt) in patients with cGvHD at 5 years from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System. The model assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness/utility ratio of ECP versus Rmb or Imt for 1000 hypothetical patients by using microsimulation cost-effectiveness techniques. Model probabilities were obtained from the literature. Treatment pathways and adverse events were evaluated taking clinical opinion and published reports into consideration. Local data on costs (2010 Euros) and health care resources utilization were validated by the clinical authors. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the model. The greater efficacy of ECP resulted in a gain of 0.011 to 0.024 quality-adjusted life-year in the first year and 0.062 to 0.094 at year 5 compared with Rmb or Imt. The results showed that the higher acquisition cost of ECP versus Imt was compensated for at 9 months by greater efficacy; this higher cost was partially compensated for (€517) by year 5 versus Rmb. After 9 months, ECP was dominant (cheaper and more effective) compared with Imt. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ECP versus Rmb was €29,646 per life-year gained and €24,442 per quality-adjusted life-year gained at year 2.5. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the results. The main study limitation was that to assess relative treatment effects, only small studies were available for indirect comparison. ECP as a third-line therapy for

  3. Associations of iron metabolism genes with blood manganese levels: a population-based study with validation data from animal models

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Given mounting evidence for adverse effects from excess manganese exposure, it is critical to understand host factors, such as genetics, that affect manganese metabolism. Methods Archived blood samples, collected from 332 Mexican women at delivery, were analyzed for manganese. We evaluated associations of manganese with functional variants in three candidate iron metabolism genes: HFE [hemochromatosis], TF [transferrin], and ALAD [δ-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase]. We used a knockout mouse model to parallel our significant results as a novel method of validating the observed associations between genotype and blood manganese in our epidemiologic data. Results Percentage of participants carrying at least one copy of HFE C282Y, HFE H63D, TF P570S, and ALAD K59N variant alleles was 2.4%, 17.7%, 20.1%, and 6.4%, respectively. Percentage carrying at least one copy of either C282Y or H63D allele in HFE gene was 19.6%. Geometric mean (geometric standard deviation) manganese concentrations were 17.0 (1.5) μg/l. Women with any HFE variant allele had 12% lower blood manganese concentrations than women with no variant alleles (β = -0.12 [95% CI = -0.23 to -0.01]). TF and ALAD variants were not significant predictors of blood manganese. In animal models, Hfe-/- mice displayed a significant reduction in blood manganese compared with Hfe+/+ mice, replicating the altered manganese metabolism found in our human research. Conclusions Our study suggests that genetic variants in iron metabolism genes may contribute to variability in manganese exposure by affecting manganese absorption, distribution, or excretion. Genetic background may be critical to consider in studies that rely on environmental manganese measurements. PMID:22074419

  4. Approaches in methodology for population-based longitudinal study on neuroprotective model for healthy longevity (TUA) among Malaysian Older Adults.

    PubMed

    Shahar, Suzana; Omar, Azahadi; Vanoh, Divya; Hamid, Tengku Aizan; Mukari, Siti Zamratol Mai-Sarah; Din, Normah Che; Rajab, Nor Fadilah; Mohammed, Zainora; Ibrahim, Rahimah; Loo, Won Hui; Meramat, Asheila; Kamaruddin, Mohd Zul Amin; Bagat, Mohamad Fazdillah; Razali, Rosdinom

    2016-12-01

    A number of longitudinal studies on aging have been designed to determine the predictors of healthy longevity, including the neuroprotective factors, however, relatively few studies included a wide range of factors and highlighted the challenges faced during data collection. Thus, the longitudinal study on neuroprotective model for healthy longevity (LRGS TUA) has been designed to prospectively investigate the magnitude of cognitive decline and its risk factors through a comprehensive multidimensional assessment comprising of biophysical health, auditory and visual function, nutrition and dietary pattern and psychosocial aspects. At baseline, subjects were interviewed for their status on sociodemographic, health, neuropsychological test, psychosocial and dietary intake. Subjects were also measured for anthropometric and physical function and fitness. Biospecimens including blood, buccal swap, hair and toenail were collected, processed and stored. A subsample was assessed for sensory function, i.e., vision and auditory. During follow-up, at 18 and 36 months, most of the measurements, along with morbidity and mortality outcomes will be collected. The description of mild cognitive impairment, successful aging and usual aging process is presented here. A total 2322 respondents were recruited in the data analysis at baseline. Most of the respondents were categorized as experiencing usual aging (73 %), followed by successful aging (11 %) and mild cognitive impairment (16 %). The LRGS TUA study is the most comprehensive longitudinal study on aging in Malaysia, and will contribute to the understanding of the aging process and factors associated with healthy aging and mental well-being of a multiethnic population in Malaysia.

  5. [Development of Markov models for economics evaluation of strategies on hepatitis B vaccination and population-based antiviral treatment in China].

    PubMed

    Yang, P C; Zhang, S X; Sun, P P; Cai, Y L; Lin, Y; Zou, Y H

    2017-07-10

    Objective: To construct the Markov models to reflect the reality of prevention and treatment interventions against hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, simulate the natural history of HBV infection in different age groups and provide evidence for the economics evaluations of hepatitis B vaccination and population-based antiviral treatment in China. Methods: According to the theory and techniques of Markov chain, the Markov models of Chinese HBV epidemic were developed based on the national data and related literature both at home and abroad, including the settings of Markov model states, allowable transitions and initial and transition probabilities. The model construction, operation and verification were conducted by using software TreeAge Pro 2015. Results: Several types of Markov models were constructed to describe the disease progression of HBV infection in neonatal period, perinatal period or adulthood, the progression of chronic hepatitis B after antiviral therapy, hepatitis B prevention and control in adults, chronic hepatitis B antiviral treatment and the natural progression of chronic hepatitis B in general population. The model for the newborn was fundamental which included ten states, i.e . susceptiblity to HBV, HBsAg clearance, immune tolerance, immune clearance, low replication, HBeAg negative CHB, compensated cirrhosis, decompensated cirrhosis, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and death. The susceptible state to HBV was excluded in the perinatal period model, and the immune tolerance state was excluded in the adulthood model. The model for general population only included two states, survive and death. Among the 5 types of models, there were 9 initial states assigned with initial probabilities, and 27 states for transition probabilities. The results of model verifications showed that the probability curves were basically consistent with the situation of HBV epidemic in China. Conclusion: The Markov models developed can be used in economics evaluation of

  6. Solving inverse problem for Markov chain model of customer lifetime value using flower pollination algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Ma'shumah, Fathimah; Permana, Dony; Sidarto, Kuntjoro Adji

    2015-12-01

    Customer Lifetime Value is an important and useful concept in marketing. One of its benefits is to help a company for budgeting marketing expenditure for customer acquisition and customer retention. Many mathematical models have been introduced to calculate CLV considering the customer retention/migration classification scheme. A fairly new class of these models which will be described in this paper uses Markov Chain Models (MCM). This class of models has the major advantage for its flexibility to be modified to several different cases/classification schemes. In this model, the probabilities of customer retention and acquisition play an important role. From Pfeifer and Carraway, 2000, the final formula of CLV obtained from MCM usually contains nonlinear form of the transition probability matrix. This nonlinearity makes the inverse problem of CLV difficult to solve. This paper aims to solve this inverse problem, yielding the approximate transition probabilities for the customers, by applying metaheuristic optimization algorithm developed by Yang, 2013, Flower Pollination Algorithm. The major interpretation of obtaining the transition probabilities are to set goals for marketing teams in keeping the relative frequencies of customer acquisition and customer retention.

  7. The role of perceived air pollution and health risk perception in health symptoms and disease: a population-based study combined with modelled levels of PM10.

    PubMed

    Orru, Kati; Nordin, Steven; Harzia, Hedi; Orru, Hans

    2018-03-31

    Adverse health impact of air pollution on health may not only be associated with the level of exposure, but rather mediated by perception of the pollution and by top-down processing (e.g. beliefs of the exposure being hazardous), especially in areas with relatively low levels of pollutants. The aim of this study was to test a model that describes interrelations between air pollution (particles < 10 [Formula: see text]m, PM 10 ), perceived pollution, health risk perception, health symptoms and diseases. A population-based questionnaire study was conducted among 1000 Estonian residents (sample was stratified by age, sex, and geographical location) about health risk perception and coping. The PM 10 levels were modelled in 1 × 1 km grids using a Eulerian air quality dispersion model. Respondents were ascribed their annual mean PM 10 exposure according to their home address. Path analysis was performed to test the validity of the model. The data refute the model proposing that exposure level significantly influences symptoms and disease. Instead, the perceived exposure influences symptoms and the effect of perceived exposure on disease is mediated by health risk perception. This relationship is more pronounced in large cities compared to smaller towns or rural areas. Perceived pollution and health risk perception, in particular in large cities, play important roles in understanding and predicting environmentally induced symptoms and diseases at relatively low levels of air pollution.

  8. Species abundance distributions in neutral models with immigration or mutation and general lifetimes.

    PubMed

    Lambert, Amaury

    2011-07-01

    We consider a general, neutral, dynamical model of biodiversity. Individuals have i.i.d. lifetime durations, which are not necessarily exponentially distributed, and each individual gives birth independently at constant rate λ. Thus, the population size is a homogeneous, binary Crump-Mode-Jagers process (which is not necessarily a Markov process). We assume that types are clonally inherited. We consider two classes of speciation models in this setting. In the immigration model, new individuals of an entirely new species singly enter the population at constant rate μ (e.g., from the mainland into the island). In the mutation model, each individual independently experiences point mutations in its germ line, at constant rate θ. We are interested in the species abundance distribution, i.e., in the numbers, denoted I(n)(k) in the immigration model and A(n)(k) in the mutation model, of species represented by k individuals, k = 1, 2, . . . , n, when there are n individuals in the total population. In the immigration model, we prove that the numbers (I(t)(k); k ≥ 1) of species represented by k individuals at time t, are independent Poisson variables with parameters as in Fisher's log-series. When conditioning on the total size of the population to equal n, this results in species abundance distributions given by Ewens' sampling formula. In particular, I(n)(k) converges as n → ∞ to a Poisson r.v. with mean γ/k, where γ : = μ/λ. In the mutation model, as n → ∞, we obtain the almost sure convergence of n (-1) A(n)(k) to a nonrandom explicit constant. In the case of a critical, linear birth-death process, this constant is given by Fisher's log-series, namely n(-1) A(n)(k) converges to α(k)/k, where α : = λ/(λ + θ). In both models, the abundances of the most abundant species are briefly discussed.

  9. Budget Impact Analysis of Switching to Digital Mammography in a Population-Based Breast Cancer Screening Program: A Discrete Event Simulation Model

    PubMed Central

    Comas, Mercè; Arrospide, Arantzazu; Mar, Javier; Sala, Maria; Vilaprinyó, Ester; Hernández, Cristina; Cots, Francesc; Martínez, Juan; Castells, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    Objective To assess the budgetary impact of switching from screen-film mammography to full-field digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program. Methods A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the breast cancer screening process (biennial mammographic screening of women aged 50 to 69 years) combined with the natural history of breast cancer. The simulation started with 100,000 women and, during a 20-year simulation horizon, new women were dynamically entered according to the aging of the Spanish population. Data on screening were obtained from Spanish breast cancer screening programs. Data on the natural history of breast cancer were based on US data adapted to our population. A budget impact analysis comparing digital with screen-film screening mammography was performed in a sample of 2,000 simulation runs. A sensitivity analysis was performed for crucial screening-related parameters. Distinct scenarios for recall and detection rates were compared. Results Statistically significant savings were found for overall costs, treatment costs and the costs of additional tests in the long term. The overall cost saving was 1,115,857€ (95%CI from 932,147 to 1,299,567) in the 10th year and 2,866,124€ (95%CI from 2,492,610 to 3,239,638) in the 20th year, representing 4.5% and 8.1% of the overall cost associated with screen-film mammography. The sensitivity analysis showed net savings in the long term. Conclusions Switching to digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program saves long-term budget expense, in addition to providing technical advantages. Our results were consistent across distinct scenarios representing the different results obtained in European breast cancer screening programs. PMID:24832200

  10. Budget impact analysis of switching to digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program: a discrete event simulation model.

    PubMed

    Comas, Mercè; Arrospide, Arantzazu; Mar, Javier; Sala, Maria; Vilaprinyó, Ester; Hernández, Cristina; Cots, Francesc; Martínez, Juan; Castells, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    To assess the budgetary impact of switching from screen-film mammography to full-field digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program. A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the breast cancer screening process (biennial mammographic screening of women aged 50 to 69 years) combined with the natural history of breast cancer. The simulation started with 100,000 women and, during a 20-year simulation horizon, new women were dynamically entered according to the aging of the Spanish population. Data on screening were obtained from Spanish breast cancer screening programs. Data on the natural history of breast cancer were based on US data adapted to our population. A budget impact analysis comparing digital with screen-film screening mammography was performed in a sample of 2,000 simulation runs. A sensitivity analysis was performed for crucial screening-related parameters. Distinct scenarios for recall and detection rates were compared. Statistically significant savings were found for overall costs, treatment costs and the costs of additional tests in the long term. The overall cost saving was 1,115,857€ (95%CI from 932,147 to 1,299,567) in the 10th year and 2,866,124€ (95%CI from 2,492,610 to 3,239,638) in the 20th year, representing 4.5% and 8.1% of the overall cost associated with screen-film mammography. The sensitivity analysis showed net savings in the long term. Switching to digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program saves long-term budget expense, in addition to providing technical advantages. Our results were consistent across distinct scenarios representing the different results obtained in European breast cancer screening programs.

  11. Population-Based Mammography Registry

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1997-10-01

    Fort Detrick, MD 21702-5012. AUTHORITY USAMRMC ltr. 14 Oct 99 THIS PAGE IS UNCLASSIFIED AD AWARD NUMBER DAMDl7-94-J-4438 TITLE: Population -Based...REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED October 1997 Annual (30 Sep 96 - 29 Sep 97) 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Population -Based...Fort Detrick, Maryland 21702-5012. 13. ABSTRACT (Maximum 200 The objective of his infrastructure project was to expand a population -based mammography

  12. Emerging organisational models of primary healthcare and unmet needs for care: insights from a population-based survey in Quebec province.

    PubMed

    Levesque, Jean-Frédéric; Pineault, Raynald; Hamel, Marjolaine; Roberge, Danièle; Kapetanakis, Costas; Simard, Brigitte; Prud'homme, Alexandre

    2012-07-02

    Reform of primary healthcare (PHC) organisations is underway in Canada. The capacity of various types of PHC organizations to respond to populations' needs remains to be assessed. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the association of PHC affiliation with unmet needs for care. Population-based survey of 9205 randomly selected adults in two regions of Quebec, Canada. Outcomes Self-reported unmet needs for care and identification of the usual source of PHC. Among eligible adults, 18% reported unmet needs for care in the last six months. Reasons reported for unmet needs were: waiting times (59% of cases); unavailability of usual doctor (42%); impossibility to obtain an appointment (36%); doctors not accepting new patients (31%). Regression models showed that unmet needs were decreasing with age and was lower among males, the least educated, and unemployed or retired. Controlling for other factors, unmet needs were higher among the poor and those with worse health status. Having a family doctor was associated with fewer unmet needs. People reporting a usual source of care in the last two-years were more likely to report unmet need for care. There were no differences in unmet needs for care across types of PHC organisations when controlling for affiliation with a family physician. Reform models of primary healthcare consistent with the medical home concept did not differ from other types of organisations in our study. Further research looking at primary healthcare reform models at other levels of implementation should be done.

  13. Falling in the elderly: Do statistical models matter for performance criteria of fall prediction? Results from two large population-based studies.

    PubMed

    Kabeshova, Anastasiia; Launay, Cyrille P; Gromov, Vasilii A; Fantino, Bruno; Levinoff, Elise J; Allali, Gilles; Beauchet, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    To compare performance criteria (i.e., sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, area under receiver operating characteristic curve and accuracy) of linear and non-linear statistical models for fall risk in older community-dwellers. Participants were recruited in two large population-based studies, "Prévention des Chutes, Réseau 4" (PCR4, n=1760, cross-sectional design, retrospective collection of falls) and "Prévention des Chutes Personnes Agées" (PCPA, n=1765, cohort design, prospective collection of falls). Six linear statistical models (i.e., logistic regression, discriminant analysis, Bayes network algorithm, decision tree, random forest, boosted trees), three non-linear statistical models corresponding to artificial neural networks (multilayer perceptron, genetic algorithm and neuroevolution of augmenting topologies [NEAT]) and the adaptive neuro fuzzy interference system (ANFIS) were used. Falls ≥1 characterizing fallers and falls ≥2 characterizing recurrent fallers were used as outcomes. Data of studies were analyzed separately and together. NEAT and ANFIS had better performance criteria compared to other models. The highest performance criteria were reported with NEAT when using PCR4 database and falls ≥1, and with both NEAT and ANFIS when pooling data together and using falls ≥2. However, sensitivity and specificity were unbalanced. Sensitivity was higher than specificity when identifying fallers, whereas the converse was found when predicting recurrent fallers. Our results showed that NEAT and ANFIS were non-linear statistical models with the best performance criteria for the prediction of falls but their sensitivity and specificity were unbalanced, underscoring that models should be used respectively for the screening of fallers and the diagnosis of recurrent fallers. Copyright © 2015 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. A CTRW-based model of time-resolved fluorescence lifetime imaging in a turbid medium

    PubMed Central

    Chernomordik, Victor; Gandjbakhche, Amir H.; Hassan, Moinuddin; Pajevic, Sinisa; Weiss, George H.

    2010-01-01

    We develop an analytic model of time-resolved fluorescent imaging of photons migrating through a semi-infinite turbid medium bounded by an infinite plane in the presence of a single stationary point fluorophore embedded in the medium. In contrast to earlier models of fluorescent imaging in which photon motion is assumed to be some form of continuous diffusion process, the present analysis is based on a continuous-time random walk (CTRW) on a simple cubic lattice, the object being to estimate the position and lifetime of the fluorophore. Such information can provide information related to local variations in pH and temperature with potential medical significance. Aspects of the theory were tested using time-resolved measurements of the fluorescence from small inclusions inside tissue-like phantoms. The experimental results were found to be in good agreement with theoretical predictions provided that the fluorophore was not located too close to the planar boundary, a common problem in many diffusive systems. PMID:21057657

  15. A CTRW-based model of time-resolved fluorescence lifetime imaging in a turbid medium.

    PubMed

    Chernomordik, Victor; Gandjbakhche, Amir H; Hassan, Moinuddin; Pajevic, Sinisa; Weiss, George H

    2010-12-01

    We develop an analytic model of time-resolved fluorescent imaging of photons migrating through a semi-infinite turbid medium bounded by an infinite plane in the presence of a single stationary point fluorophore embedded in the medium. In contrast to earlier models of fluorescent imaging in which photon motion is assumed to be some form of continuous diffusion process, the present analysis is based on a continuous-time random walk (CTRW) on a simple cubic lattice, the object being to estimate the position and lifetime of the fluorophore. Such information can provide information related to local variations in pH and temperature with potential medical significance. Aspects of the theory were tested using time-resolved measurements of the fluorescence from small inclusions inside tissue-like phantoms. The experimental results were found to be in good agreement with theoretical predictions provided that the fluorophore was not located too close to the planar boundary, a common problem in many diffusive systems.

  16. Optical damage performance of conductive widegap semiconductors: spatial, temporal, and lifetime modeling

    DOE PAGES

    Elhadj, Selim; Yoo, Jae-hyuck; Negres, Raluca A.; ...

    2016-12-19

    The optical damage performance of electrically conductive gallium nitride (GaN) and indium tin oxide (ITO) films is addressed using large area, high power laser beam exposures at 1064 nm sub-bandgap wavelength. Analysis of the laser damage process assumes that onset of damage (threshold) is determined by the absorption and heating of a nanoscale region of a characteristic size reaching a critical temperature. We use this model to rationalize semi-quantitatively the pulse width scaling of the damage threshold from picosecond to nanosecond timescales, along with the pulse width dependence of the damage threshold probability derived by fitting large beam damage densitymore » data. Multi-shot exposures were used to address lifetime performance degradation described by an empirical expression based on the single exposure damage model. A damage threshold degradation of at least 50% was observed for both materials. Overall, the GaN films tested had 5-10 × higher optical damage thresholds than the ITO films tested for comparable transmission and electrical conductivity. This route to optically robust, large aperture transparent electrodes and power optoelectronics may thus involve use of next generation widegap semiconductors such as GaN.« less

  17. Global-mean BC lifetime as an indicator of model skill? Constraining the vertical aerosol distribution using aircraft observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lund, M. T.; Samset, B. H.; Skeie, R. B.; Berntsen, T.

    2017-12-01

    Several recent studies have used observations from the HIPPO flight campaigns to constrain the modeled vertical distribution of black carbon (BC) over the Pacific. Results indicate a relatively linear relationship between global-mean atmospheric BC residence time, or lifetime, and bias in current models. A lifetime of less than 5 days is necessary for models to reasonably reproduce these observations. This is shorter than what many global models predict, which will in turn affect their estimates of BC climate impacts. Here we use the chemistry-transport model OsloCTM to examine whether this relationship between global BC lifetime and model skill also holds for a broader a set of flight campaigns from 2009-2013 covering both remote marine and continental regions at a range of latitudes. We perform four sets of simulations with varying scavenging efficiency to obtain a spread in the modeled global BC lifetime and calculate the model error and bias for each campaign and region. Vertical BC profiles are constructed using an online flight simulator, as well by averaging and interpolating monthly mean model output, allowing us to quantify sampling errors arising when measurements are compared with model output at different spatial and temporal resolutions. Using the OsloCTM coupled with a microphysical aerosol parameterization, we investigate the sensitivity of modeled BC vertical distribution to uncertainties in the aerosol aging and scavenging processes in more detail. From this, we can quantify how model uncertainties in the BC life cycle propagate into uncertainties in its climate impacts. For most campaigns and regions, a short global-mean BC lifetime corresponds with the lowest model error and bias. On an aggregated level, sampling errors appear to be small, but larger differences are seen in individual regions. However, we also find that model-measurement discrepancies in BC vertical profiles cannot be uniquely attributed to uncertainties in a single process or

  18. Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modeling of Persistent Organic Pollutants for Lifetime Exposure Assessment: A New Tool in Breast Cancer Epidemiologic Studies

    PubMed Central

    Charbonneau, Michel; López-Carrillo, Lizbeth; Haddad, Sami

    2008-01-01

    Background Despite experimental evidence, most epidemiologic studies to date have not supported an association between exposure to persistent organic pollutants (POP) and breast cancer incidence in humans. This may be attributable to difficulties in estimating blood/tissue POP concentration at critical time periods of carcinogenesis. Objectives In this work we aimed to develop a tool to estimate lifetime POP blood/tissue exposure and levels during any hypothesized time window of susceptibility in breast cancer development. Methods We developed a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model that can account for any given physiologic lifetime history. Using data on pregnancies, height, weight, and age, the model estimates the values of physiologic parameters (e.g., organ volume, composition, and blood flow) throughout a woman’s entire life. We assessed the lifetime toxicokinetic profile (LTP) for various exposure scenarios and physiologic factors (i.e., breast-feeding, growth, pregnancy, lactation, and weight changes). Results Simulations for three POPs [hexachlorobenzene, polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB)-153, PCB-180] using different lifetime physiologic profiles showed that the same blood concentration at 55 years of age can be reached despite totally different LTP. Aside from exposure levels, lactation periods and weight profile history were shown to be the factors that had the greatest impact on the LTP. Conclusions This new lifetime PBPK model, which showed the limitations of using a single sample value obtained around the time of diagnosis for lifetime exposure assessment, will enable researchers conducting environmental epidemiology studies to reduce uncertainty linked to past POP exposure estimation and to consider exposure during time windows that are hypothesized to be mechanistically critical in carcinogenesis. PMID:18629310

  19. Endurance degradation and lifetime model of p-channel floating gate flash memory device with 2T structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Jiaxing; Liu, Siyang; Liu, Xiaoqiang; Sun, Weifeng; Liu, Yuwei; Liu, Xiaohong; Hou, Bo

    2017-08-01

    The endurance degradation mechanisms of p-channel floating gate flash memory device with two-transistor (2T) structure are investigated in detail in this work. With the help of charge pumping (CP) measurements and Sentaurus TCAD simulations, the damages in the drain overlap region along the tunnel oxide interface caused by band-to-band (BTB) tunneling programming and the damages in the channel region resulted from Fowler-Nordheim (FN) tunneling erasure are verified respectively. Furthermore, the lifetime model of endurance characteristic is extracted, which can extrapolate the endurance degradation tendency and predict the lifetime of the device.

  20. A self-assessment predictive model for type 2 diabetes or impaired fasting glycaemia derived from a population-based survey.

    PubMed

    Asadollahi, Khairollah; Asadollahi, Parisa; Azizi, Monire; Abangah, Ghobad

    2017-09-01

    There is no cure for diabetes and its prevention is interesting for both people and health policy makers. The aim of this study was to construct a simple scoring system to predict diabetes and suggest a self assessment predictive model for type 2 diabetes in Iran. This study was a part of a comprehensive population based survey performed in Ilam province during 2011-2012, including 2158 cases≥25years. All demographic and laboratory results were entered into the prepared sheets and were analysed using SPSS 16. By identification of relative risks of diabetes and IFG, a predictive model was constructed and proposed for these abnormalities. Totally, 2158 people comprising 72% female, 60% from urban regions, mean age of 45.5±14years were investigated and the average height, weight, FBS and waist of participants were as follows respectively: 164±8.9cm, 68.4±12.3kg, 5.7±2.8mmol/l (102.6±49.9mg/dl) and 82.3±14.3cm. The prevalence of IFG, diabetes and hyperglycaemia among all participants were 7.8%, 11.8% and 19.6% respectively. Regression analysis revealed familial history of diabetes, place of life, age, hypertension, daily exercise, marital status, gender, waist size, smoking, and BMI as the most relevant risk factors for diabetes and hyperglycemia. A self-assessment predictive model was constructed for general population living in the west of Iran. This is the first self-assessment predictive model for diabetes in Iran. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Personality-related factors as predictors of help-seeking for depression: a population-based study applying the Behavioral Model of Health Services Use.

    PubMed

    Schomerus, Georg; Appel, Katja; Meffert, Peter J; Luppa, Melanie; Andersen, Ronald M; Grabe, Hans J; Baumeister, Sebastian E

    2013-11-01

    Although the prevalence of mental disorders and the demand for mental health services are increasing, little is known about the impact of personality-related factors on help-seeking among depressive individuals. We, therefore, investigated the relationship between the "Big Five" personality traits, resilience, alexithymia, childhood neglect or abuse, and help-seeking among depressive individuals. We used data from 354 persons with a diagnosis of major depression from the population-based cohort study of health in Pomerania within the theoretical framework of the Andersen Behavioral Model of Health Services Use. Using stepwise regression techniques, we found that older age, higher education, more perceived social support, presence of childhood abuse, higher levels of conscientiousness, lower levels of resilience, and more severe depression were associated with help-seeking for depression. In contrast, gender, extraversion, openness, agreeableness, neuroticism, and alexithymia did not significantly predict help-seeking. In addition, no evidence for gender-specific effects was observed. Personality-related predisposing factors are important predictors of help-seeking. The influence of resilience on help-seeking among depressed individuals merits further exploration.

  2. Estimated incidence of cardiovascular complications related to type 2 diabetes in Mexico using the UKPDS outcome model and a population-based survey.

    PubMed

    Reynoso-Noverón, Nancy; Mehta, Roopa; Almeda-Valdes, Paloma; Rojas-Martinez, Rosalba; Villalpando, Salvador; Hernández-Ávila, Mauricio; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A

    2011-01-07

    To estimate the incidence of complications, life expectancy and diabetes related mortality in the Mexican diabetic population over the next two decades using data from a nation-wide, population based survey and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) outcome model. The cohort included all patients with type 2 diabetes evaluated during the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANut) 2006. ENSANut is a probabilistic multistage stratified survey whose aim was to measure the prevalence of chronic diseases. A total of 47,152 households were visited. Results are shown stratified by gender, time since diagnosis (> or ≤ to 10 years) and age at the time of diagnosis (> or ≤ 40 years). The prevalence of diabetes in our cohort was 14.4%. The predicted 20 year-incidence for chronic complications per 1000 individuals are: ischemic heart disease 112, myocardial infarction 260, heart failure 113, stroke 101, and amputation 62. Furthermore, 539 per 1000 patients will have a diabetes-related premature death. The average life expectancy for the diabetic population is 10.9 years (95%CI 10.7-11.2); this decreases to 8.3 years after adjusting for quality of life (CI95% 8.1-8.5). Male sex and cases diagnosed after age 40 have the highest risk for developing at least one major complication during the next 20 years. Based on the current clinical profile of Mexican patients with diabetes, the burden of disease related complications will be tremendous over the next two decades.

  3. The relationship between the Five-Factor Model personality traits and peptic ulcer disease in a large population-based adult sample.

    PubMed

    Realo, Anu; Teras, Andero; Kööts-Ausmees, Liisi; Esko, Tõnu; Metspalu, Andres; Allik, Jüri

    2015-12-01

    The current study examined the relationship between the Five-Factor Model personality traits and physician-confirmed peptic ulcer disease (PUD) diagnosis in a large population-based adult sample, controlling for the relevant behavioral and sociodemographic factors. Personality traits were assessed by participants themselves and by knowledgeable informants using the NEO Personality Inventory-3 (NEO PI-3). When controlling for age, sex, education, and cigarette smoking, only one of the five NEO PI-3 domain scales - higher Neuroticism - and two facet scales - lower A1: Trust and higher C1: Competence - made a small, yet significant contribution (p < 0.01) to predicting PUD in logistic regression analyses. In the light of these relatively modest associations, our findings imply that it is certain behavior (such as smoking) and sociodemographic variables (such as age, gender, and education) rather than personality traits that are associated with the diagnosis of PUD at a particular point in time. Further prospective studies with a longitudinal design and multiple assessments would be needed to fully understand if the FFM personality traits serve as risk factors for the development of PUD. © 2015 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. Emerging organisational models of primary healthcare and unmet needs for care: insights from a population-based survey in Quebec province

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Reform of primary healthcare (PHC) organisations is underway in Canada. The capacity of various types of PHC organizations to respond to populations’ needs remains to be assessed. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the association of PHC affiliation with unmet needs for care. Methods Population-based survey of 9205 randomly selected adults in two regions of Quebec, Canada. Outcomes Self-reported unmet needs for care and identification of the usual source of PHC. Results Among eligible adults, 18 % reported unmet needs for care in the last six months. Reasons reported for unmet needs were: waiting times (59 % of cases); unavailability of usual doctor (42 %); impossibility to obtain an appointment (36 %); doctors not accepting new patients (31 %). Regression models showed that unmet needs were decreasing with age and was lower among males, the least educated, and unemployed or retired. Controlling for other factors, unmet needs were higher among the poor and those with worse health status. Having a family doctor was associated with fewer unmet needs. People reporting a usual source of care in the last two-years were more likely to report unmet need for care. There were no differences in unmet needs for care across types of PHC organisations when controlling for affiliation with a family physician. Conclusion Reform models of primary healthcare consistent with the medical home concept did not differ from other types of organisations in our study. Further research looking at primary healthcare reform models at other levels of implementation should be done. PMID:22748060

  5. Risk factors and a clinical prediction model for low maternal thyroid function during early pregnancy: two population-based prospective cohort studies

    PubMed Central

    Korevaar, Tim I M; Nieboer, Daan; Bisschop, Peter H L T; Goddijn, Mariette; Medici, Marco; Chaker, Layal; de Rijke, Yolanda B; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Visser, Theo J; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Tiemeier, Henning; Vrijkotte, Tanja G; Peeters, Robin P

    2017-01-01

    Background Low maternal thyroid function during early pregnancy is associated with various adverse outcomes including impaired neurocognitive development of the offspring, premature delivery and abnormal birth weight. Aim To aid doctors in the risk assessment of thyroid dysfunction during pregnancy, we set out to investigate clinical risk factors and derive a prediction model based on easily obtainable clinical variables. Methods 9767 women during early pregnancy (≤ 18 week) were selected from two population-based prospective cohorts: the Generation R Study (N=5985) and the ABCD study (N=3782). We aimed to investigate the association of easily obtainable clinical subject characteristics such as maternal age, BMI, smoking status, ethnicity, parity and gestational age at blood sampling with the risk of low free thyroxine (FT4) and elevated thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), determined according to the 2.5th-97.5th reference range in TPOAb negative women. Results BMI, non-smoking and ethnicity were risk factors for elevated TSH levels, however, the discriminative ability was poor (range c-statistic of 0.57 to 0.60). Sensitivity analysis showed that addition of TPOAbs to the model yielded a c-statistic of 0.73-0.75. Maternal age, BMI, smoking, parity and gestational age at blood sampling were risk factors for low FT4, which taken together provided adequate discrimination (range c-statistic of 0.72 to 0.76). Conclusions Elevated TSH levels depend predominantly on TPOAb levels and prediction of elevated TSH levels is not possible with clinical characteristics only. In contrast, the validated clinical prediction model for FT4 had high discriminative value to assess the likelihood of low FT4 levels. PMID:27384268

  6. Risk factors and a clinical prediction model for low maternal thyroid function during early pregnancy: two population-based prospective cohort studies.

    PubMed

    Korevaar, Tim I M; Nieboer, Daan; Bisschop, Peter H L T; Goddijn, Mariette; Medici, Marco; Chaker, Layal; de Rijke, Yolanda B; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Visser, Theo J; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Tiemeier, Henning; Vrijkotte, Tanja G; Peeters, Robin P

    2016-12-01

    Low maternal thyroid function during early pregnancy is associated with various adverse outcomes including impaired neurocognitive development of the offspring, premature delivery and abnormal birthweight. To aid doctors in the risk assessment of thyroid dysfunction during pregnancy, we set out to investigate clinical risk factors and derive a prediction model based on easily obtainable clinical variables. In total, 9767 women during early pregnancy (≤18 week) were selected from two population-based prospective cohorts: the Generation R Study (N = 5985) and the ABCD study (N = 3782). We aimed to investigate the association of easily obtainable clinical subject characteristics such as maternal age, BMI, smoking status, ethnicity, parity and gestational age at blood sampling with the risk of low free thyroxine (FT4) and elevated thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), determined according to the 2·5th-97·5th reference range in TPOAb negative women. BMI, nonsmoking and ethnicity were risk factors for elevated TSH levels; however, the discriminative ability was poor (range c-statistic of 0·57-0·60). Sensitivity analysis showed that addition of TPOAbs to the model yielded a c-statistic of 0·73-0·75. Maternal age, BMI, smoking, parity and gestational age at blood sampling were risk factors for low FT4, which taken together provided adequate discrimination (range c-statistic of 0·72-0·76). Elevated TSH levels depend predominantly on TPOAb levels, and prediction of elevated TSH levels is not possible with clinical characteristics only. In contrast, the validated clinical prediction model for FT4 had high discriminative value to assess the likelihood of low FT4 levels. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. DC-Obesity: A New Model for Estimating Differential Lifetime Costs of Overweight and Obesity by Socioeconomic Status.

    PubMed

    Sonntag, Diana; Jarczok, Marc N; Ali, Shehzad

    2017-09-01

    The aim of this study was to quantify the magnitude of lifetime costs of overweight and obesity by socioeconomic status (SES). Differential Costs (DC)-Obesity is a new model that uses time-to-event simulation and the Markov modeling approach to compare lifetime excess costs of overweight and obesity among individuals with low, middle, and high SES. SES was measured by a multidimensional aggregated index based on level of education, occupational class, and income by using longitudinal data of the German Socioeconomic Panel (SOEP). Random-effects meta-analysis was applied to combine estimates of (in)direct costs of overweight and obesity. DC-Obesity brings attention to opposite socioeconomic gradients in lifetime costs due to obesity compared to overweight. Compared to individuals with obesity and high SES, individuals with obesity and low SES had lifetime excess costs that were two times higher (€8,526). In contrast, these costs were 20% higher in groups with overweight and high SES than in groups with overweight and low SES (€2,711). The results of this study indicate that SES may play a pivotal role in designing cost-effective and sustainable interventions to prevent and treat overweight and obesity. DC-Obesity may help public policy planners to make informed decisions about obesity programs targeted at vulnerable SES groups. © 2017 The Obesity Society.

  8. The Quality of Surgical Care Project: a model to evaluate surgical outcomes in Western Australia using population-based record linkage.

    PubMed

    Semmens, J B; Lawrence-Brown, M M; Fletcher, D R; Rouse, I L; Holman, C D

    1998-06-01

    The aim of this study is to establish a model to evaluate surgical outcomes and, where indicated, recommend changes to improve the quality of surgical care in Western Australia (WA). Open resection for aneurysm of the abdominal aorta was the first procedure evaluated and the results are reported in an accompanying paper. The Quality of Surgical Care Project (QSCP) is conducted under the aegis of the Royal Australasian College of Surgeons (RACS) in WA, and brings together a multidisciplinary team of surgeons, public health researchers and health service administrators. The Western Australia Health Services Research Linked Database (the WA Linked Database) is used to provide linked chains of patients records residing in the state health department from the following sources: hospital morbidity data system, birth and death records, mental health services data, cancer registrations and midwives' notifications. This links 16 years of population-based patient records from 1980, including all public and private hospital admissions and re-admissions. The Quality of Surgical Care Project was established to use and to correlate the data from the WA Linked Database. The result is a powerful database for a contained population that is available for scientific analysis by a multidisciplinary team of clinical epidemiologists, surgeons and health service managers. Users will have the ability to establish benchmark standards for the outcomes of surgical procedures in WA for use in quality improvement programmes run by the College and will facilitate self-directed performance auditing activities as a commitment to greater community accountability. The Quality of Surgical Care Project provides a potential model of benefits to be realized by both the medical profession and the community through multidisciplinary collaboration supported by adequate information. Although migration from WA is relatively low, future linkage to the state electoral roll will allow correction for any

  9. Natural History of Dependency in the Elderly: A 24-Year Population-Based Study Using a Longitudinal Item Response Theory Model.

    PubMed

    Edjolo, Arlette; Proust-Lima, Cécile; Delva, Fleur; Dartigues, Jean-François; Pérès, Karine

    2016-02-15

    We aimed to describe the hierarchical structure of Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) and basic Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and trajectories of dependency before death in an elderly population using item response theory methodology. Data were obtained from a population-based French cohort study, the Personnes Agées QUID (PAQUID) Study, of persons aged ≥65 years at baseline in 1988 who were recruited from 75 randomly selected areas in Gironde and Dordogne. We evaluated IADL and ADL data collected at home every 2-3 years over a 24-year period (1988-2012) for 3,238 deceased participants (43.9% men). We used a longitudinal item response theory model to investigate the item sequence of 11 IADL and ADL combined into a single scale and functional trajectories adjusted for education, sex, and age at death. The findings confirmed the earliest losses in IADL (shopping, transporting, finances) at the partial limitation level, and then an overlapping of concomitant IADL and ADL, with bathing and dressing being the earliest ADL losses, and finally total losses for toileting, continence, eating, and transferring. Functional trajectories were sex-specific, with a benefit of high education that persisted until death in men but was only transient in women. An in-depth understanding of this sequence provides an early warning of functional decline for better adaptation of medical and social care in the elderly. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Estimated incidence of cardiovascular complications related to type 2 diabetes in Mexico using the UKPDS outcome model and a population-based survey

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background To estimate the incidence of complications, life expectancy and diabetes related mortality in the Mexican diabetic population over the next two decades using data from a nation-wide, population based survey and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) outcome model Methods The cohort included all patients with type 2 diabetes evaluated during the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANut) 2006. ENSANut is a probabilistic multistage stratified survey whose aim was to measure the prevalence of chronic diseases. A total of 47,152 households were visited. Results are shown stratified by gender, time since diagnosis (> or ≤ to 10 years) and age at the time of diagnosis (> or ≤ 40 years). Results The prevalence of diabetes in our cohort was 14.4%. The predicted 20 year-incidence for chronic complications per 1000 individuals are: ischemic heart disease 112, myocardial infarction 260, heart failure 113, stroke 101, and amputation 62. Furthermore, 539 per 1000 patients will have a diabetes-related premature death. The average life expectancy for the diabetic population is 10.9 years (95%CI 10.7-11.2); this decreases to 8.3 years after adjusting for quality of life (CI95% 8.1-8.5). Male sex and cases diagnosed after age 40 have the highest risk for developing at least one major complication during the next 20 years. Conclusions Based on the current clinical profile of Mexican patients with diabetes, the burden of disease related complications will be tremendous over the next two decades. PMID:21214916

  11. Anomalous higher frequency component of ISSN and relationship between sunspot lifetime and their birthrate: explanation with an AR-1 model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapoval, Alexander; Le Mouël, Jean-Louis; Shnirman, Mikhail; Courtillot, Vincent

    2017-04-01

    The higher frequency (HF) component of the daily ISSN time-series contributed anomalously weakly to total energy during the last epoch of high solar activity (lower boundary of HF component taken as 3-6 days). To explain this anomaly, we model the daily ISSN as an autoregressive process of order one, with a noise component modulated by the ˜ 11-yr cycle. We link the observed anomaly to positive correlations between the "births" of sunspots in nearby locations when solar activity is high. We also analyze the relationship between birth rate of sunspots and their average lifetime. Our findings support the hypothesis that, on day-to-month scales, solar proxies reflect the solar dynamo itself, accompanied by modulated noise and effects linked to solar rotation. Representing solar activity as a combination of sunspot lifetime and intensity of sunspot births should narrow choices of solar dynamo models.

  12. Desired lifetime and end-of-life desires across adulthood from 20 to 90: a dual-source information model.

    PubMed

    Lang, Frieder R; Baltes, Paul B; Wagner, Gert G

    2007-09-01

    How long do people want to live, and how does scientific research on aging affect such desires? A dual-source information model proposes that aging expectations and desires are informed differently by two sources: personal experiences on the one hand, and scientific and societal influences on the other. Two studies with independent German national samples explored desires regarding length of life and end of life among adults between the ages of 20 and 90. FINDINGS ARE: First, desired lifetime is consistent at around 85 years with few age differences. Second, experimental induction of good or bad news from research on aging has little effect in Study 1. Third, interest in science has moderating effects on desired lifetime in Study 2. Fourth, there is a high prevalence of a strong desire to control the "when and how" of one's death, although only 11% of the individuals completed a living will. Findings are consistent with the dual-source information model.

  13. Evidence for an increase in the ozone photochemical lifetime in the eastern United States using a regional air quality model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldberg, Daniel L.; Vinciguerra, Timothy P.; Hosley, Kyle M.; Loughner, Christopher P.; Canty, Timothy P.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Dickerson, Russell R.

    2015-12-01

    Measures to control surface ozone rely on quantifying production attributable to local versus regional (upwind) emissions. Here we simulate the relative contribution of local (i.e., within a particular state) and regional sources of surface ozone in the eastern United States (66-94°W longitude) for July 2002, 2011, and 2018 using the Comprehensive Air-quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). To determine how emissions and chemistry within the domain affect the production, loss, lifetime, and transport of trace gases, we initialize our model with identical boundary conditions in each simulation. We find that the photochemical lifetime of ozone has increased as emissions have decreased. The contribution of ozone from outside the domain (boundary condition ozone, BCO3) to local surface mixing ratios increases in an absolute sense by 1-2 ppbv between 2002 and 2018 due to the longer lifetime of ozone. The photochemical lifetime of ozone lengthens because the two primary gas phase sinks for odd oxygen (Ox ≈ NO2 + O3)—attack by hydroperoxyl radicals (HO2) on ozone and formation of nitrate—weaken with decreasing pollutant emissions. The relative role of BCO3 will also increase. For example, BCO3 represents 34.5%, 38.8%, and 43.6% of surface ozone in the Baltimore, MD, region during July 2002, 2011, and 2018 means, respectively. This unintended consequence of air quality regulation impacts attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for surface ozone because the spatial and temporal scales of photochemical smog increase; the influence of pollutants transported between states and into the eastern U.S. will likely play a greater role in the future.

  14. Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peterson, L. E.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Wilson, J. W. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence

  15. Effects of Orbital Lifetime Reduction on the Long-Term Earth Satellite Population as Modeled by EVOLVE 4.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krisko, Paula H.; Opiela, John N.; Liou, Jer-Chyi; Anz-Meador, Phillip D.; Theall, Jeffrey R.

    1999-01-01

    The latest update of the NASA orbital debris environment model, EVOLVE 4.0, has been used to study the effect of various proposed debris mitigation measures, including the NASA 25-year guideline. EVOLVE 4.0, which includes updates of the NASA breakup, solar activity, and the orbit propagator models, a GEO analysis option, and non-fragmentation debris source models, allows for the statistical modeling and predicted growth of the particle population >1 mm in characteristic length in LEO and GEO orbits. The initial implementation of this &odel has been to study the sensitivity of the overall LEO debris environment to mitigation measures designed to limit the lifetime of intact objects in LEO orbits. The mitigation measures test matrix for this study included several commonly accepted testing schemes, i.e., the variance of the maximum LEO lifetime from 10 to 50 years, the date of the initial implementation of this policy, the shut off of all explosions at some specified date, and the inclusion of disposal orbits. All are timely studies in that all scenarios have been suggested by researchers and satellite operators as options for the removal of debris from LEO orbits.

  16. Modeling lifetime costs and health outcomes attributable to secondhand smoke exposure at home among Korean adult women.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jiyae; Han, Ah Ram; Choi, Dalwoong; Lim, Kyung-Min; Bae, SeungJin

    2017-05-17

    The aim of this research is to estimate lifetime costs and health consequences for Korean adult women who were exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS) at home. A Markov model was developed to project the lifetime healthcare costs and health outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of Korean women who are 40 years old and were married to current smokers. The Korean epidemiological data were used to reflect the natural history of SHS-exposed and non-exposed women. The direct healthcare costs (in 2014 US dollars) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were annually discounted at 5% to reflect time preference. The time horizon of the analysis was lifetime and the cycle length was 1 year. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. In the absence of SHS exposure, Korean women will live 41.32 years or 34.56 QALYs before discount, which corresponded to 17.29 years or 15.35 QALYs after discount. The SHS-exposed women were predicted to live 37.91 years and 31.08 QALYs before discount and 16.76 years and 14.62 QALYs after discount. The estimated lifetime healthcare cost per woman in the SHS non-exposed group was US$11 214 before the discount and US$2465 after discount. The negative impact of SHS exposure on health outcomes and healthcare costs escalated as the time horizon increased, suggesting that the adverse impact of SHS exposure may have higher impact on the later part of the lifetime. The result was consistent across a wide range of assumptions. Life expectancy might underestimate the impact of SHS exposure on health outcomes, especially if the time horizon of the analysis is not long enough. Early intervention on smoking behaviour could substantially reduce direct healthcare costs and improve quality of life attributable to SHS exposure. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  17. Modeling the expected lifetime and evolution of a deme's principal genetic sequence.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Brian

    2014-03-01

    The principal genetic sequence (PGS) is the most common genetic sequence in a deme. The PGS changes over time because new genetic sequences are created by inversions, compete with the current PGS, and a small fraction become PGSs. A set of coupled difference equations provides a description of the evolution of the PGS distribution function in an ensemble of demes. Solving the set of equations produces the survival probability of a new genetic sequence and the expected lifetime of an existing PGS as a function of inversion size and rate, recombination rate, and deme size. Additionally, the PGS distribution function is used to explain the transition pathway from old to new PGSs. We compare these results to a cellular automaton based representation of a deme and the drosophila species, D. melanogaster and D. yakuba.

  18. Variation in Adenoma Detection Rate and the Lifetime Benefits and Cost of Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Microsimulation Model.

    PubMed

    Meester, Reinier G S; Doubeni, Chyke A; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris; Jensen, Christopher D; van der Meulen, Miriam P; Levin, Theodore R; Quinn, Virginia P; Schottinger, Joanne E; Zauber, Ann G; Corley, Douglas A; van Ballegooijen, Marjolein

    2015-06-16

    Colonoscopy is the most commonly used colorectal cancer screening test in the United States. Its quality, as measured by adenoma detection rates (ADRs), varies widely among physicians, with unknown consequences for the cost and benefits of screening programs. To estimate the lifetime benefits, complications, and costs of an initial colonoscopy screening program at different levels of adenoma detection. Microsimulation modeling with data from a community-based health care system on ADR variation and cancer risk among 57,588 patients examined by 136 physicians from 1998 through 2010. Using modeling, no screening was compared with screening initiation with colonoscopy according to ADR quintiles (averages 15.3%, quintile 1; 21.3%, quintile 2; 25.6%, quintile 3; 30.9%, quintile 4; and 38.7%, quintile 5) at ages 50, 60, and 70 years with appropriate surveillance of patients with adenoma. Estimated lifetime colorectal cancer incidence and mortality, number of colonoscopies, complications, and costs per 1000 patients, all discounted at 3% per year and including 95% confidence intervals from multiway probabilistic sensitivity analysis. In simulation modeling, among unscreened patients the lifetime risk of colorectal cancer incidence was 34.2 per 1000 (95% CI, 25.9-43.6) and risk of mortality was 13.4 per 1000 (95% CI, 10.0-17.6). Among screened patients, simulated lifetime incidence decreased with lower to higher ADRs (26.6; 95% CI, 20.0-34.3 for quintile 1 vs 12.5; 95% CI, 9.3-16.5 for quintile 5) as did mortality (5.7; 95% CI, 4.2-7.7 for quintile 1 vs 2.3; 95% CI, 1.7-3.1 for quintile 5). Compared with quintile 1, simulated lifetime incidence was on average 11.4% (95% CI, 10.3%-11.9%) lower for every 5 percentage-point increase of ADRs and for mortality, 12.8% (95% CI, 11.1%-13.7%) lower. Complications increased from 6.0 (95% CI, 4.0-8.5) of 2777 colonoscopies (95% CI, 2626-2943) in quintile 1 to 8.9 (95% CI, 6.1-12.0) complications of 3376 (95% CI, 3081

  19. Multi-stress factor model for cycle lifetime prediction of lithium ion batteries with shallow-depth discharge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cui, Yingzhi; Du, Chunyu; Yin, Geping; Gao, Yunzhi; Zhang, Lingling; Guan, Ting; Yang, Lijie; Wang, Fuping

    2015-04-01

    Accurate prediction of service life is a major challenge for the reliable application of lithium ion batteries in satellite and electric vehicle fields. This paper carries out systematic orthogonal experiments to extract key stress factor of capacity loss for commercial LiCoO2/MCMB (mesocarbon microbeads) lithium ion batteries cycled in shallow-depth discharge. Further, single stress factor and multi-stress factor models consisting of temperature, discharge rate, taper voltage and depth of discharge for cycle life prediction of lithium ion batteries are developed. The physicochemical significance of the life prediction model is interpreted by electrochemical analysis. The practical applicability of the models is validated by experimental data. Our multi-stress factor model is helpful to predicting the lifetime of LIBs with shallow-depth discharge, and to optimizing the operation regime of LIBs for electric vehicle or satellite use.

  20. Modelled Black Carbon Radiative Forcing and Atmospheric Lifetime in AeroCom Phase II Constrained by Aircraft Observations

    SciTech Connect

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Herber, Andreas

    2014-11-27

    Black carbon (BC) aerosols absorb solar radiation, and are generally held to exacerbate global warming through exerting a positive radiative forcing1. However, the total contribution of BC to the ongoing changes in global climate is presently under debate2-8. Both anthropogenic BC emissions and the resulting spatial and temporal distribution of BC concentration are highly uncertain2,9. In particular, long range transport and processes affecting BC atmospheric lifetime are poorly understood, leading to large estimated uncertainty in BC concentration at high altitudes and far from emission sources10. These uncertainties limit our ability to quantify both the historical, present and future anthropogenic climatemore » impact of BC. Here we compare vertical profiles of BC concentration from four recent aircraft measurement campaigns with 13 state of the art aerosol models, and show that recent assessments may have overestimated present day BC radiative forcing. Further, an atmospheric lifetime of BC of less than 5 days is shown to be essential for reproducing observations in transport dominated remote regions. Adjusting model results to measurements in remote regions, and at high altitudes, leads to a 25% reduction in the multi-model median direct BC forcing from fossil fuel and biofuel burning over the industrial era.« less

  1. Simulating Star Clusters with the AMUSE Software Framework. I. Dependence of Cluster Lifetimes on Model Assumptions and Cluster Dissolution Modes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Whitehead, Alfred J.; McMillan, Stephen L. W.; Vesperini, Enrico; Portegies Zwart, Simon

    2013-12-01

    We perform a series of simulations of evolving star clusters using the Astrophysical Multipurpose Software Environment (AMUSE), a new community-based multi-physics simulation package, and compare our results to existing work. These simulations model a star cluster beginning with a King model distribution and a selection of power-law initial mass functions and contain a tidal cutoff. They are evolved using collisional stellar dynamics and include mass loss due to stellar evolution. After studying and understanding that the differences between AMUSE results and results from previous studies are understood, we explored the variation in cluster lifetimes due to the random realization noise introduced by transforming a King model to specific initial conditions. This random realization noise can affect the lifetime of a simulated star cluster by up to 30%. Two modes of star cluster dissolution were identified: a mass evolution curve that contains a runaway cluster dissolution with a sudden loss of mass, and a dissolution mode that does not contain this feature. We refer to these dissolution modes as "dynamical" and "relaxation" dominated, respectively. For Salpeter-like initial mass functions, we determined the boundary between these two modes in terms of the dynamical and relaxation timescales.

  2. Robust Bayesian Fluorescence Lifetime Estimation, Decay Model Selection and Instrument Response Determination for Low-Intensity FLIM Imaging.

    PubMed

    Rowley, Mark I; Coolen, Anthonius C C; Vojnovic, Borivoj; Barber, Paul R

    2016-01-01

    We present novel Bayesian methods for the analysis of exponential decay data that exploit the evidence carried by every detected decay event and enables robust extension to advanced processing. Our algorithms are presented in the context of fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) and particular attention has been paid to model the time-domain system (based on time-correlated single photon counting) with unprecedented accuracy. We present estimates of decay parameters for mono- and bi-exponential systems, offering up to a factor of two improvement in accuracy compared to previous popular techniques. Results of the analysis of synthetic and experimental data are presented, and areas where the superior precision of our techniques can be exploited in Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) experiments are described. Furthermore, we demonstrate two advanced processing methods: decay model selection to choose between differing models such as mono- and bi-exponential, and the simultaneous estimation of instrument and decay parameters.

  3. Robust Bayesian Fluorescence Lifetime Estimation, Decay Model Selection and Instrument Response Determination for Low-Intensity FLIM Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Rowley, Mark I.; Coolen, Anthonius C. C.; Vojnovic, Borivoj; Barber, Paul R.

    2016-01-01

    We present novel Bayesian methods for the analysis of exponential decay data that exploit the evidence carried by every detected decay event and enables robust extension to advanced processing. Our algorithms are presented in the context of fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) and particular attention has been paid to model the time-domain system (based on time-correlated single photon counting) with unprecedented accuracy. We present estimates of decay parameters for mono- and bi-exponential systems, offering up to a factor of two improvement in accuracy compared to previous popular techniques. Results of the analysis of synthetic and experimental data are presented, and areas where the superior precision of our techniques can be exploited in Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) experiments are described. Furthermore, we demonstrate two advanced processing methods: decay model selection to choose between differing models such as mono- and bi-exponential, and the simultaneous estimation of instrument and decay parameters. PMID:27355322

  4. NOx Lifetime During WINTER

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kenagy, H. S.; Sparks, T.; Ebben, C. J.; Wooldridge, P. J.; Lopez-Hilfiker, F.; Lee, B. H.; Thornton, J. A.; McDuffie, E. E.; Fibiger, D. L.; Brown, S. S.; Montzka, D. D.; Weinheimer, A. J.; Apel, E. C.; Jaegle, L.; Cohen, R. C.

    2017-12-01

    The study of the lifetime and fate of NOx (=NO + NO2) is important for understanding its persistence and distribution. This requires an understanding of the balance of NOx sinks. Although urban NOx lifetimes are relatively well understood during summertime conditions, wintertime NOx chemistry has been comparatively less studied. We used measurements of NOx and its oxidation products from the aircraft-based WINTER (Wintertime INvestigation of Transport, Emissions, and Reactivity) campaign over the northeastern US during February-March 2015 to help constrain NOx lifetime during wintertime conditions when days are shorter, actinic flux is reduced, and temperatures are colder. By analyzing the marine outflow from the NYC-DC corridor, we learn that wintertime NOx has a long lifetime, is much longer-lived during the day than at night, and its lifetime is controlled during both periods by NOx conversion to nitric acid (HNO3) as the primary NOx sink. We also employ a two-box model to constrain the wintertime plume dilution rate and HNO3 deposition rate. Additionally, analysis of the nighttime Ox budget suggests that approximately 10% of O3 is lost overnight through N2O5 dark reactions that produce HNO3.

  5. Uncertainties in models of tropospheric ozone based on Monte Carlo analysis: Tropospheric ozone burdens, atmospheric lifetimes and surface distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Derwent, Richard G.; Parrish, David D.; Galbally, Ian E.; Stevenson, David S.; Doherty, Ruth M.; Naik, Vaishali; Young, Paul J.

    2018-05-01

    Recognising that global tropospheric ozone models have many uncertain input parameters, an attempt has been made to employ Monte Carlo sampling to quantify the uncertainties in model output that arise from global tropospheric ozone precursor emissions and from ozone production and destruction in a global Lagrangian chemistry-transport model. Ninety eight quasi-randomly Monte Carlo sampled model runs were completed and the uncertainties were quantified in tropospheric burdens and lifetimes of ozone, carbon monoxide and methane, together with the surface distribution and seasonal cycle in ozone. The results have shown a satisfactory degree of convergence and provide a first estimate of the likely uncertainties in tropospheric ozone model outputs. There are likely to be diminishing returns in carrying out many more Monte Carlo runs in order to refine further these outputs. Uncertainties due to model formulation were separately addressed using the results from 14 Atmospheric Chemistry Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) chemistry-climate models. The 95% confidence ranges surrounding the ACCMIP model burdens and lifetimes for ozone, carbon monoxide and methane were somewhat smaller than for the Monte Carlo estimates. This reflected the situation where the ACCMIP models used harmonised emissions data and differed only in their meteorological data and model formulations whereas a conscious effort was made to describe the uncertainties in the ozone precursor emissions and in the kinetic and photochemical data in the Monte Carlo runs. Attention was focussed on the model predictions of the ozone seasonal cycles at three marine boundary layer stations: Mace Head, Ireland, Trinidad Head, California and Cape Grim, Tasmania. Despite comprehensively addressing the uncertainties due to global emissions and ozone sources and sinks, none of the Monte Carlo runs were able to generate seasonal cycles that matched the observations at all three MBL stations. Although

  6. Lifetimes of flame balls dragged by model turbulent flows: Role of velocity gradient fluctuations.

    PubMed

    D'Angelo, Yves; Joulin, Guy

    2004-03-01

    An isolated combustion spot-known as a flame ball (FB)-is considered while it is advected by a turbulent flow of a lean premixture of such a light fuel as hydrogen. A Batchelor approximation for the surrounding Lagrangian flow is made. This in principle gives one an access to the FB lifetime t(life) and to its response to the ambiant Lagrangian rate-of-strain tensor g(t), by means of a nonlinear and forced integro-differential equation for the current FB radius. For a diagonal g(t) deduced from random Markov processes of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck type, or linearly filtered versions thereof, extensive numerical simulations and approximate theoretical analyses agree that (i) flame balls can definitely live for much longer than their time of spontaneous expansion/collapse; (ii) large enough values of t(life) are compatible with Poisson statistics; (iii) the variations of with the characteristics of g(t) mirror the latter's statistics, more precisely that of trace(g(2)). Open problems, dealing with a nondiagonal g(t), ignition-related transients and/or collective effects, finally are evoked.

  7. Scale-invariant instantons and the complete lifetime of the standard model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andreassen, Anders; Frost, William; Schwartz, Matthew D.

    2018-03-01

    In a classically scale-invariant quantum field theory, tunneling rates are infrared divergent due to the existence of instantons of any size. While one expects such divergences to be resolved by quantum effects, it has been unclear how higher-loop corrections can resolve a problem appearing already at one loop. With a careful power counting, we uncover a series of loop contributions that dominate over the one-loop result and sum all the necessary terms. We also clarify previously incomplete treatments of related issues pertaining to global symmetries, gauge fixing, and finite mass effects. In addition, we produce exact closed-form solutions for the functional determinants over scalars, fermions, and vector bosons around the scale-invariant bounce, demonstrating manifest gauge invariance in the vector case. With these problems solved, we produce the first complete calculation of the lifetime of our Universe: 1 0139 years . With 95% confidence, we expect our Universe to last more than 1 058 years . The uncertainty is part experimental uncertainty on the top quark mass and on αs and part theory uncertainty from electroweak threshold corrections. Using our complete result, we provide phase diagrams in the mt/mh and the mt/αs planes, with uncertainty bands. To rule out absolute stability to 3 σ confidence, the uncertainty on the top quark pole mass would have to be pushed below 250 MeV or the uncertainty on αs(mZ) pushed below 0.00025.

  8. Collisional lifetimes of meteoroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soja, R. H.; Schwarzkopf, G. J.; Sommer, M.; Vaubaillon, J.; Albin, T.; Rodmann, J.; Grün, E.; Srama, R.

    2016-01-01

    Collisions of meteoroids with interplanetary dust grain fragments particles, dispersing larger particles amongst lower mass intervals. Here we use the method of Grün et al. (1985) and the IMEM interplanetary dust model to calculate the collisional lifetimes for different orbits, and for particles in different meteor showers. The timescales are usually long - of order 10^4 years for 1mm grains on Jupiter-family and Hally-type comet orbits. However, near-sun orbits particles suffer more frequent collisions and therefore have much shorter lifetimes. We discuss factors that affect the accuracy of these calculations.

  9. Comparing lifetime emissions of natural gas and conventional fuel vehicles: an application of the generalized ANCOVA model.

    PubMed

    Deaton, M L; Winebrake, J J

    2000-02-01

    New regulations and incentives are encouraging the use of clean, alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) in urban areas. These vehicles are seen as one option for reducing air pollution from mobile sources. However, because of the limited number of AFVs on the road, little is known about actual lifetime emissions characteristics of in-use AFVs. This study describes the use of a generalized analysis of covariance model to evaluate and compare the emissions from natural gas vehicles with emissions from reformulated gasoline vehicles. The model describes fleet-wide emissions deterioration, while also accounting for individual vehicle variability within the fleet. This ability to measure individual vehicle variability can then be used to provide realistic bounds for the emissions deterioration in individual vehicles and the fleet as a whole. In order to illustrate the use of the model, the carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen (NOx), non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC), and carbon dioxide emissions characteristics of a fleet of dedicated natural gas Dodge Ram vans and a fleet of dedicated reformulated gasoline Dodge Ram vans operating in the U.S. government fleet are explored. The analysis demonstrates the utility of the statistical method and suggests a potential for natural gas Dodge Ram vans to be generally cleaner than their conventional fuel counterparts. However, in the case of NOx and NHMCs, the analysis also suggests that these emissions benefits might be reduced over the vehicle lifetime due to higher emissions deterioration rates for natural gas vehicles. As this paper is aimed at illustrating the analysis of the covariance model, the results reported herein should be considered within the context of a more comprehensive study of these data before general conclusions are possible. Generalization of these findings to other vehicle models and alternative fuel technologies is not justified without further study.

  10. A comparison of linear demographic models and fraction of lifetime egg production for assessing sustainability in sharks.

    PubMed

    Chapple, Taylor K; Botsford, Louis W

    2013-06-01

    Conventional methods for management of data-rich fisheries maintain sustainable populations by assuring that lifetime reproduction is adequate for individuals to replace themselves and accounting for density-dependent recruitment. Fishing is not allowed to reduce relative lifetime reproduction, the fraction of current egg production relative to unfished egg production (FLEP), below a sustainable level. Because most shark fisheries are data poor, other representations of persistence status have been used, including linear demographic models, which incorporate life-history characteristics in age-structured models with no density dependence. We tested how well measures of sustainability from 3 linear demographic methods (rebound potential, stochastic growth rate, and potential population increase) reflect actual population persistence by comparing values of these measures with FLEP for 26 shark species. We also calculated the value of fishing mortality (F) that would allow all 26 species to maintain an accepted precautionary threshold for sharks of FLEP = 60%, expressing F as a fraction of natural mortality (M). Values of stochastic growth rate and potential population growth did not covary in rank order with FLEP (p = 0.057 and p = 0.077, respectively) and neither was significantly correlated with FLEP. Ordinal ranking of rebound potential positively covaried with FLEP (p = 0.00013), but the relative rankings of some species were substantially out of order. Adopting a sustainable limit of F = 0.16M would maintain all 26 species above the precautionary minimum value of FLEP (60%). We concluded that shark-fishery and conservation policies should rely on calculation of replacement (i.e., FLEP), and that sharks should be fished at a precautionary level that would protect all stocks (i.e., F< 0.16M). © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

  11. Why do general circulation models overestimate the aerosol cloud lifetime effect? A case study comparing CAM5 and a CRM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Cheng; Penner, Joyce E.

    2017-01-01

    Observation-based studies have shown that the aerosol cloud lifetime effect or the increase of cloud liquid water path (LWP) with increased aerosol loading may have been overestimated in climate models. Here, we simulate shallow warm clouds on 27 May 2011 at the southern Great Plains (SGP) measurement site established by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program using a single-column version of a global climate model (Community Atmosphere Model or CAM) and a cloud resolving model (CRM). The LWP simulated by CAM increases substantially with aerosol loading while that in the CRM does not. The increase of LWP in CAM is caused by a large decrease of the autoconversion rate when cloud droplet number increases. In the CRM, the autoconversion rate is also reduced, but this is offset or even outweighed by the increased evaporation of cloud droplets near the cloud top, resulting in an overall decrease in LWP. Our results suggest that climate models need to include the dependence of cloud top growth and the evaporation/condensation process on cloud droplet number concentrations.

  12. Why do general circulation models overestimate the aerosol cloud lifetime effect? A case study comparing CAM5 and a CRM

    SciTech Connect

    Zhou, Cheng; Penner, Joyce E.

    2017-01-02

    Observation-based studies have shown that the aerosol cloud lifetime effect or the increase of cloud liquid water path (LWP) with increased aerosol loading may have been overestimated in climate models. Here, we simulate shallow warm clouds on 27 May 2011 at the southern Great Plains (SGP) measurement site established by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program using a single-column version of a global climate model (Community Atmosphere Model or CAM) and a cloud resolving model (CRM). The LWP simulated by CAM increases substantially with aerosol loading while that in the CRM does not. The increase of LWP inmore » CAM is caused by a large decrease of the autoconversion rate when cloud droplet number increases. In the CRM, the autoconversion rate is also reduced, but this is offset or even outweighed by the increased evaporation of cloud droplets near the cloud top, resulting in an overall decrease in LWP. Lastly, our results suggest that climate models need to include the dependence of cloud top growth and the evaporation/condensation process on cloud droplet number concentrations.« less

  13. Population-Based Input Function Modeling for [18F]FMPEP-d 2, an Inverse Agonist Radioligand for Cannabinoid CB1 Receptors: Validation in Clinical Studies

    PubMed Central

    Zanotti-Fregonara, Paolo; Hirvonen, Jussi; Lyoo, Chul Hyoung; Zoghbi, Sami S.; Rallis-Frutos, Denise; Huestis, Marilyn A.; Morse, Cheryl; Pike, Victor W.; Innis, Robert B.

    2013-01-01

    Background Population-based input function (PBIF) may be a valid alternative to full blood sampling for quantitative PET imaging. PBIF is typically validated by comparing its quantification results with those obtained via arterial sampling. However, for PBIF to be employed in actual clinical research studies, its ability to faithfully capture the whole spectrum of results must be assessed. The present study validated a PBIF for [18F]FMPEP-d 2, a cannabinoid CB1 receptor radioligand, in healthy volunteers, and also attempted to utilize PBIF to replicate three previously published clinical studies in which the input function was acquired with arterial sampling. Methods The PBIF was first created and validated with data from 42 healthy volunteers. This PBIF was used to assess the retest variability of [18F]FMPEP-d 2, and then to quantify CB1 receptors in alcoholic patients (n = 18) and chronic daily cannabis smokers (n = 29). Both groups were scanned at baseline and after 2–4 weeks of monitored drug abstinence. Results PBIF yielded accurate results in the 42 healthy subjects (average Logan-distribution volume (V T) was 13.3±3.8 mL/cm3 for full sampling and 13.2±3.8 mL/cm3 for PBIF; R2 = 0.8765, p<0.0001) and test-retest results were comparable to those obtained with full sampling (variability: 16%; intraclass correlation coefficient: 0.89). PBIF accurately replicated the alcoholism study, showing a widespread ∼20% reduction of CB1 receptors in alcoholic subjects, without significant change after abstinence. However, a small PBIF-V T bias of −9% was unexpectedly observed in cannabis smokers. This bias led to substantial errors, including a V T decrease in regions that had shown no downregulation in the full input function. Simulated data showed that the original findings could only have been replicated with a PBIF bias between −6% and +4%. Conclusions Despite being initially well validated in healthy subjects, PBIF may misrepresent clinical

  14. Modeling the oblique spin precession in lateral spin valves for accurate determination of the spin lifetime anisotropy: Effect of finite contact resistance and channel length

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhu, Tiancong; Kawakami, Roland K.

    2018-04-01

    The spin lifetime anisotropy is an important quantity for investigating the spin relaxation mechanisms in graphene and in heterostructures of two-dimensional materials. We generalize the diffusive spin transport equations of oblique spin precession in a lateral spin valve with finite contact resistance. This yields a method to determine the spin lifetime anisotropy ratio ξ =τ⊥/τ∥ , which is the ratio between lifetimes of spin polarized perpendicular and parallel to the graphene surface. By solving the steady-state Bloch equations, we show that the line shape of the oblique spin precession signal can be described with six dimensionless parameters, which can be solved analytically. We demonstrate that the anisotropic spin precession characteristics can be strongly suppressed by contact-induced spin relaxation originating from conductance mismatch between the channel material and electrodes. To extract the spin lifetime anisotropy ratio accurately, we develop a closed-form equation that includes the effect of finite contact resistance. Furthermore, we demonstrate that in the high contact resistance regime, the minimum channel length required for accurately determining the spin lifetime anisotropy for a sufficiently low external magnetic field is only determined by the diffusion coefficient of the channel material, as opposed to the spin diffusion length. Our work provides an accurate model to extract the spin lifetime anisotropy ratio from the oblique spin precession measurement and can be used to guide the device design for such measurements.

  15. Long-lifetime Martian orbit selection using a time-dependent model of the Martian atmosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Culp, R. D.; Stewart, A. I.; Chow, C.-C.; Uphoff, C.

    1984-01-01

    A mathematical model of the time-dependent Martian atmosphere has been developed in order to accurately calculate the effects of aerodynamic drag on a low altitude satellite. The time-dependent properties of the model include solar activity effects, dust storm effects, seasonal and diurnal variations, and annual motion effects. Position effects are accounted for through Martian latitude and longitude. Expected values of mass density, temperature, scale height, and the estimated standard deviation of the mass density are provided. An example of the use of the model in selecting an orbit for the Mars Geochemical/Climatology Orbiter is given.

  16. Time-dependent model of the Martian atmosphere for use in orbit lifetime and sustenance studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Culp, R. D.; Stewart, A. I.

    1984-01-01

    A time-dependent model of the Martian atmosphere suitable for calculation of long-term aerodynamic effects on low altitude satellites is presented. The atmospheric model is both position dependent, through latitude and longitude effects, and time dependent. The time dependency includes diurnal and seasonal effects, effects of annual motion, long and short term solar activity effects, and periodic dust storm effects. Nine constituent gases are included in the model. Uncertainties in exospheric temperature, turbidity, and turbopause altitude are used to produce bounds on the expected density. A computer model - a Fortran subroutine which, when given the Julian date, Cartesian position of the sun and the spacecraft in aerocentric coordinates, returns the local values of mass density, temperature, scale height, and upper and lower bounds on the mass density is presented.

  17. Comparison of Aalen's additive and Cox proportional hazards models for breast cancer survival: analysis of population- based data from British Columbia, Canada.

    PubMed

    Abadi, Alireza; Saadat, Saeed; Yavari, Parvin; Bajdik, Chris; Jalili, Parvin

    2011-01-01

    Regression models for survival data have traditionally been based on the Cox regression model. However, its validity relies heavily on assumption of proportional hazards. Another restriction of the Cox model is insufficiency in dealing with time-varying covariate effects, since the regression coefficients are assumed constant. These weaknesses have generated interest in alternative approaches and with Aalen's additive model, the effect of the covariates acts on an absolute rather than a relative scale. We here fit the Cox and Aalen's additive models to breast cancer data for comparison through practical application. The data related to 14,826 women diagnosed with breast cancer in BC during 1990-1999 and followed to 2010. Plots of the Martingale Residual Process and Arja's Plot was used to assess the fit of the additive model. The Cox-Snell residuals, Martingale residuals and scaled Schoenfeld residuals were used to check the Cox model. In the category of patients younger than 65 years the proportional hazard assumption was satisfied. In this category, by the Cox model, the variables "stage", "surgery", "radiotherapy", "chemotherapy", "hormone therapy" and interaction between "stage" and "surgery" proved significant. In the same category, by the Aalen's additive model, similar significant variables are selected except for "hormone therapy". The sign of estimated coefficients from survival functions based on the both Cox and Aalen's additive models were alike although estimated coefficients in the two models differed from the viewpoint of magnitude. In the category of patients older than 65 years, the proportional hazard assumption was not satisfied, and the Stratified Cox model and Aalen's additive model gave similar results. Based on our findings, if the proportional hazard assumption is not satisfied, the Aalen's additive model is an appropriate alternative for the Cox model. If the proportional hazard assumption is satisfied, both models are appropriate

  18. Small-signal modeling of the transistor laser including the quantum capture and escape lifetimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Faraji, B.; Pulfrey, D. L.; Chrostowski, L.

    2008-09-01

    The authors report the analytical small-signal modeling of the distribution of minority carriers in the base of a transistor laser and of the high-speed dynamics of the device. The modeling is based on analytically solving the continuity equation and the rate equations, which incorporate the virtual states as a conversion mechanism. Wide-band operation of the transistor laser along with the suppression of the relaxation oscillation frequency peak is demonstrated.

  19. Lifetime PCB 153 bioaccumulation and pharmacokinetics in pilot whales: Bayesian population PBPK modeling and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations.

    PubMed

    Weijs, Liesbeth; Roach, Anthony C; Yang, Raymond S H; McDougall, Robin; Lyons, Michael; Housand, Conrad; Tibax, Detlef; Manning, Therese; Chapman, John; Edge, Katelyn; Covaci, Adrian; Blust, Ronny

    2014-01-01

    Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for wild animal populations such as marine mammals typically have a high degree of model uncertainty and variability due to the scarcity of information and the embryonic nature of this field. Parameters values used in marine mammals models are usually taken from other mammalian species (e.g. rats or mice) and might not be entirely suitable to properly explain the kinetics of pollutants in marine mammals. Therefore, several parameters for a PBPK model for the bioaccumulation and pharmacokinetics of PCB 153 in long-finned pilot whales were estimated in the present study using the Bayesian approach executed with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. This method uses 'prior' information of the parameters, either from the literature or from previous model runs. The advantage is that this method uses such 'prior' parameters to calculate probability distributions to determine 'posterior' values that best explain the field observations. Those field observations or datasets were PCB 153 concentrations in blubber of long-finned pilot whales from Sandy Cape and Stanley, Tasmania, Australia. The model predictions showed an overall decrease in PCB 153 levels in blubber over the lifetime of the pilot whales. All parameters from the Sandy Cape model were updated using the Stanley dataset, except for the concentration of PCB 153 in the milk. The model presented here is a promising and preliminary start to PBPK modeling in long-finned pilot whales that would provide a basis for non-invasive studies in these protected marine mammals. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Constraints from Airborne (210)Pb Observations on Aerosol Scavenging and Lifetime in a Global Chemical Transport Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhang, Bo; Liu, Hongyu; Crawford, James H.; Fairlie, Duncan T.; Chen, Gao; Dibb, Jack E.; Shah, Viral; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Yantosca, Robert M.

    2016-01-01

    Lead-210 distribution and lifetime in the atmosphere are not sensitive to ice in-cloud scavenging in convective updraft. Ice in-cloud scavenging in stratiform clouds reduce tropospheric (210)Pb lifetime by approximately 1 day and results in better agreements with observed surface observations and aircraft measured profiles. However, the process results in significant underestimate of (210)Pb in UT/LS.

  1. On the Finite Lifetimes of Poloidal Alfven Waves: Box vs. Dipole Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, J.; Lee, D. H.; Kim, K. H.; Lee, E.

    2016-12-01

    Poloidal Alfven waves with high azimuthal wave number (m >> 1) in the Earth's magnetosphere are one-dimensional waves that propagate along the magnetic field with radial magnetic field and azimuthal electric field perturbations. It is of great importance to understand the dynamics of the poloidal mode waves since such polarization enables the waves to interact with ring current particles and accelerate or decelerate them via drift-bounce resonances. We investigate the characteristics of poloidal mode using MHD wave models with high grid resolution. Comparisons among a 3-D simple box model, 2-D and 3-D dipole models advance our knowledge of the wave modes in more realistic conditions. To examine the time-dependent behavior of local wave fields, we impose various standing poloidal Alfven waves with different azimuthal wave numbers and harmonics, and follow their evolution in time. Our results show that, unlike the toroidal field line resonances, poloidal Alfven waves are highly transient phenomena such that the initial poloidal wave energy is transferred to the toroidal mode energy. The transient time scale in dipolar geometry turns out to be much shorter than that in the box model. Our results indicate that the geometric effect on time-dependent behavior of poloidal modes is significant, which should be incorporated into wave-particle interaction. It also suggests that prolonged poloidal mode oscillations are unlikely unless there occurs continuous wave excitation via the wave-particle interaction.

  2. Likelihood inference for COM-Poisson cure rate model with interval-censored data and Weibull lifetimes.

    PubMed

    Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, N

    2017-10-01

    In this paper, we consider a competing cause scenario and assume the number of competing causes to follow a Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution which can capture both over and under dispersion that is usually encountered in discrete data. Assuming the population of interest having a component cure and the form of the data to be interval censored, as opposed to the usually considered right-censored data, the main contribution is in developing the steps of the expectation maximization algorithm for the determination of the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters of the flexible Conway-Maxwell Poisson cure rate model with Weibull lifetimes. An extensive Monte Carlo simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Model discrimination within the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution is addressed using the likelihood ratio test and information-based criteria to select a suitable competing cause distribution that provides the best fit to the data. A simulation study is also carried out to demonstrate the loss in efficiency when selecting an improper competing cause distribution which justifies the use of a flexible family of distributions for the number of competing causes. Finally, the proposed methodology and the flexibility of the Conway-Maxwell Poisson distribution are illustrated with two known data sets from the literature: smoking cessation data and breast cosmesis data.

  3. Comparing Population-based Risk-stratification Model Performance Using Demographic, Diagnosis and Medication Data Extracted From Outpatient Electronic Health Records Versus Administrative Claims.

    PubMed

    Kharrazi, Hadi; Chi, Winnie; Chang, Hsien-Yen; Richards, Thomas M; Gallagher, Jason M; Knudson, Susan M; Weiner, Jonathan P

    2017-08-01

    There is an increasing demand for electronic health record (EHR)-based risk stratification and predictive modeling tools at the population level. This trend is partly due to increased value-based payment policies and the increasing availability of EHRs at the provider level. Risk stratification models, however, have been traditionally derived from claims or encounter systems. This study evaluates the challenges and opportunities of using EHR data instead of or in addition to administrative claims for risk stratification. This study used the structured EHR records and administrative claims of 85,581 patients receiving outpatient care at a large integrated provider system. Common data elements for risk stratification (ie, age, sex, diagnosis, and medication) were extracted from outpatient EHR records and administrative claims. The performance of a validated risk-stratification model was assessed using data extracted from claims alone, EHR alone, and claims and EHR combined. EHR-derived metrics overlapped considerably with administrative claims (eg, number of chronic conditions). The accuracy of the model, when using EHR data alone, was acceptable with an area under the curve of ∼0.81 for hospitalization and ∼0.85 for identifying top 1% utilizers using the concurrent model. However, when using EHR data alone, the predictive model explained a lower amount of variation in utilization-based outcomes compared with administrative claims. The results show a promising performance of models predicting cost and hospitalization using outpatient EHR's diagnosis and medication data. More research is needed to evaluate the benefits of other EHR data types (eg, lab values and vital signs) for risk stratification.

  4. Major Depression and Life satisfaction: A population-based twin study

    PubMed Central

    Nes, Ragnhild B.; Czajkowski, Nikolai O.; Røysamb, Espen; Ørstavik, Ragnhild E.; Tambs, Kristian; Reichborn-Kjennerud, Ted

    2012-01-01

    Background The extent to which positive and negative indicators of mental health share etiological influences has been studied to a limited degree only. This study examines the genetic and environmental influences on association between liability to lifetime DSM-IV Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and dispositional life satisfaction (LS). Methods Two-wave questionnaire data on LS (assessed 6 years apart) and lifetime MDD obtained by structured clinical interviews in a population-based sample of adult twins were analysed using structural equation modelling in Mx. Results The prevalence of lifetime MDD was estimated to be 11.1% and 15.8% in males and females, respectively. Individuals fulfilling the criteria for MDD reported significantly lower levels of LS. The co-variation in MDD and dispositional LS was found to be accounted for by genetic and unique environmental influences only. The phenotypic correlation was estimated to be 0.36, of which genetic influences accounted for 74% and environmental factors the remaining 26%. The correlation between genetic factors for MDD and LS was estimated to be −0.55 and the correlation between unique environmental factors to be −0.22. Heritability was estimated to 0.34 and 0.72 for MDD and LS, respectively. Limitations The sample consists of twins only and there are limitations associated with the twin design. Conclusions Whereas genetic influences on vulnerability to lifetime MDD are considerably shared with liability to (low) LS, environmental influences are more distinct. Thus, environmental factors associated with risk of MDD do not strongly impact on dispositional LS, and conversely, environmental factors influencing dispositional LS do not strongly buffer against MDD. PMID:23021825

  5. Evaluating the number of stages in development of squamous cell and adenocarcinomas across cancer sites using human population-based cancer modeling.

    PubMed

    Kravchenko, Julia; Akushevich, Igor; Abernethy, Amy P; Lyerly, H Kim

    2012-01-01

    Adenocarcinomas (ACs) and squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) differ by clinical and molecular characteristics. We evaluated the characteristics of carcinogenesis by modeling the age patterns of incidence rates of ACs and SCCs of various organs to test whether these characteristics differed between cancer subtypes. Histotype-specific incidence rates of 14 ACs and 12 SCCs from the SEER Registry (1973-2003) were analyzed by fitting several biologically motivated models to observed age patterns. A frailty model with the Weibull baseline was applied to each age pattern to provide the best fit for the majority of cancers. For each cancer, model parameters describing the underlying mechanisms of carcinogenesis including the number of stages occurring during an individual's life and leading to cancer (m-stages) were estimated. For sensitivity analysis, the age-period-cohort model was incorporated into the carcinogenesis model to test the stability of the estimates. For the majority of studied cancers, the numbers of m-stages were similar within each group (i.e., AC and SCC). When cancers of the same organs were compared (i.e., lung, esophagus, and cervix uteri), the number of m-stages were more strongly associated with the AC/SCC subtype than with the organ: 9.79±0.09, 9.93±0.19 and 8.80±0.10 for lung, esophagus, and cervical ACs, compared to 11.41±0.10, 12.86±0.34 and 12.01±0.51 for SCCs of the respective organs (p<0.05 between subtypes). Most SCCs had more than ten m-stages while ACs had fewer than ten m-stages. The sensitivity analyses of the model parameters demonstrated the stability of the obtained estimates. A model containing parameters capable of representing the number of stages of cancer development occurring during individual's life was applied to the large population data on incidence of ACs and SCCs. The model revealed that the number of m-stages differed by cancer subtype being more strongly associated with ACs/SCCs histotype than with organ/site.

  6. Lifetime-Dependent Effects of Bisphenol A on Asthma Development in an Experimental Mouse Model

    PubMed Central

    Petzold, Susanne; Averbeck, Marco; Simon, Jan C.; Lehmann, Irina; Polte, Tobias

    2014-01-01

    Background Environmental factors are thought to contribute significantly to the increase of asthma prevalence in the last two decades. Bisphenol A (BPA) is a xenoestrogen commonly used in consumer products and the plastic industry. There is evidence and an ongoing discussion that endocrine disruptors like BPA may affect human health and also exert alterations on in the immune system. The aim of this study was to investigate age-dependent effects of BPA on the asthma risk using a murine model to explain the controversial results reported till date. Methods BALB/c mice were exposed to BPA via the drinking water for different time periods including pregnancy and breastfeeding. To induce an asthma phenotype, mice were sensitized to ovalbumin (OVA), followed by an intrapulmonary allergen challenge. Results BPA exposure during pregnancy and breastfeeding had no significant effect on asthma development in the offspring. In contrast, lifelong exposure from birth until the last antigen challenge clearly increased eosinophilic inflammation in the lung, airway hyperreactivity and antigen-specific serum IgE levels in OVA-sensitized adult mice compared to mice without BPA exposure. Surprisingly, BPA intake during the sensitization period significantly reduced the development of allergic asthma. This effect was reversed in the presence of a glucocorticoid receptor antagonist. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that the impact of BPA on asthma risk is strongly age-dependent and ranges from asthma-promoting to asthma-reducing effects. This could explain the diversity of results from previous studies regarding the observed health impact of BPA. PMID:24950052

  7. Development of a cardiovascular diseases risk prediction model and tools for Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A population-based retrospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Wan, Eric Yuk Fai; Fong, Daniel Yee Tak; Fung, Colman Siu Cheung; Yu, Esther Yee Tak; Chin, Weng Yee; Chan, Anca Ka Chun; Lam, Cindy Lo Kuen

    2018-02-01

    Evidence-based cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk prediction models and tools specific for Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are currently unavailable. This study aimed to develop and validate a CVD risk prediction model for Chinese T2DM patients. A retrospective cohort study was conducted with 137 935 Chinese patients aged 18 to 79 years with T2DM and without prior history of CVD, who had received public primary care services between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2010. Using the derivation cohort over a median follow-up of 5 years, the interaction effect between predictors and age were derived using Cox proportional hazards regression with a forward stepwise approach. Harrell's C statistic and calibration plot were used on the validation cohort to assess the discrimination and calibration of the models. The web calculator and chart were developed based on the developed models. For both genders, predictors for higher risk of CVD were older age, smoking, longer diabetes duration, usage of anti-hypertensive drug and insulin, higher body mass index, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), systolic and diastolic blood pressure, a total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (TC/HDL-C) ratio and urine albumin to creatinine ratio, and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate. Interaction factors with age demonstrated a greater weighting of TC/HDL-C ratio in both younger females and males, and smoking status and HbA1c in younger males. The developed models, translated into a web calculator and color-coded chart, served as evidence-based visual aids that facilitate clinicians to estimate quickly the 5-year CVD risk for Chinese T2DM patients and to guide intervention. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. Decision tree model for predicting long-term outcomes in children with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a nationwide, population-based observational study.

    PubMed

    Goto, Yoshikazu; Maeda, Tetsuo; Nakatsu-Goto, Yumiko

    2014-06-27

    At hospital arrival, early prognostication for children after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) might help clinicians formulate strategies, particularly in the emergency department. In this study, we aimed to develop a simple and generally applicable bedside tool for predicting outcomes in children after cardiac arrest. We analyzed data of 5,379 children who had undergone OHCA. The data were extracted from a prospectively recorded, nationwide, Utstein-style Japanese database. The primary endpoint was survival with favorable neurological outcome (Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) scale categories 1 and 2) at 1 month after OHCA. We developed a decision tree prediction model by using data from a 2-year period (2008 to 2009, n = 3,693), and the data were validated using external data from 2010 (n = 1,686). Recursive partitioning analysis for 11 predictors in the development cohort indicated that the best single predictor for CPC 1 and 2 at 1 month was the prehospital return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). The next predictor for children with prehospital ROSC was an initial shockable rhythm. For children without prehospital ROSC, the next best predictor was a witnessed arrest. Use of a simple decision tree prediction model permitted stratification into four outcome prediction groups: good (prehospital ROSC and initial shockable rhythm), moderately good (prehospital ROSC and initial nonshockable rhythm), poor (prehospital non-ROSC and witnessed arrest) and very poor (prehospital non-ROSC and unwitnessed arrest). By using this model, we identified patient groups ranging from 0.2% to 66.2% for 1-month CPC 1 and 2 probabilities. The validated decision tree prediction model demonstrated a sensitivity of 69.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 58.7% to 78.9%), a specificity of 95.2% (95% CI = 94.1% to 96.2%) and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 (95% CI = 0.87 to 0.90) for predicting 1-month CPC 1 and 2. With our decision tree prediction

  9. Association between intake of less-healthy foods defined by the United Kingdom's nutrient profile model and cardiovascular disease: A population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Mytton, Oliver T; Forouhi, Nita G; Scarborough, Peter; Lentjes, Marleen; Luben, Robert; Rayner, Mike; Khaw, Kay Tee; Wareham, Nicholas J; Monsivais, Pablo

    2018-01-01

    In the United Kingdom, the Food Standards Agency-Ofcom nutrient profiling model (FSA-Ofcom model) is used to define less-healthy foods that cannot be advertised to children. However, there has been limited investigation of whether less-healthy foods defined by this model are associated with prospective health outcomes. The objective of this study was to test whether consumption of less-healthy food as defined by the FSA-Ofcom model is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We used data from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort study in adults (n = 25,639) aged 40-79 years who completed a 7-day diet diary between 1993 and 1997. Incident CVD (primary outcome), cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality (secondary outcomes) were identified using record linkage to hospital admissions data and death certificates up to 31 March 2015. Each food and beverage item reported was coded and given a continuous score, using the FSA-Ofcom model, based on the consumption of energy; saturated fat; total sugar; sodium; nonsoluble fibre; protein; and fruits, vegetables, and nuts. Items were classified as less-healthy using Ofcom regulation thresholds. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to test for an association between consumption of less-healthy food and incident CVD. Sensitivity analyses explored whether the results differed based on the definition of the exposure. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, behavioural risk factors, clinical risk factors, and socioeconomic status. Participants were followed up for a mean of 16.4 years. During follow-up, there were 4,965 incident cases of CVD (1,524 fatal within 30 days). In the unadjusted analyses, we observed an association between consumption of less-healthy food and incident CVD (test for linear trend over quintile groups, p < 0.01). After adjustment for covariates (sociodemographic, behavioural, and indices of cardiovascular risk), we found no association between consumption of

  10. Estimates of peripartum and postnatal mother-to-child transmission probabilities of HIV for use in Spectrum and other population-based models

    PubMed Central

    Rollins, Nigel; Mahy, Mary; Becquet, Renaud; Kuhn, Louise; Creek, Tracy; Mofenson, Lynne

    2012-01-01

    Background The Global Plan Towards the Elimination of New HIV Infections among Children and Keeping Their Mothers Alive aims to reduce by 2015 the number of new infections in children, in 22 priority countries, by at least 90% from 2009 levels. Mathematical models, such as Spectrum, are used to estimate national and global trends of the number of infants infected through mother-to-child transmission (MTCT). However, other modelling exercises have also examined MTCT under different settings. MTCT probabilities applied in models to populations that are assumed to receive antiretroviral interventions need to reflect the most current risk estimates. Methods The UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections held a consultation to review data on MTCT probabilities. Published literature, recent conferences and data from personal communications with principle investigators were reviewed. Based on available data, peripartum and postnatal transmission probabilities were estimated for different antiretroviral drug regimens and maternal CD4 levels including for women with incident infection. Results Incident infections occurring during pregnancy are estimated to be associated with a 30% probability of MTCT; incident infections during breast feeding lead to a 28% probability of postnatal MTCT. The 2010 WHO recommended regimens (Options A or B) are estimated to be associated with a 2% peripartum transmission probability and 0.2% transmission probability per month of breast feeding. Peripartum and postnatal transmission probabilities were lowest for women who were taking antiretroviral therapy before the pregnancy namely 0.5% peripartum and 0.16% per month of breast feeding, respectively. Discussion These updated probabilities of HIV transmission (applied to Spectrum in April 2011) will be used to estimate new child HIV infections and track progress towards the 2015 targets of the Global Plan. PMID:23172345

  11. Global well-posedness of infectious disease models without life-time immunity: the cases of cholera and avian influenza.

    PubMed

    Yamazaki, Kazuo

    2017-10-27

    We study the systems of partial differential equations with diffusion that model the dynamics of infectious diseases without life-time immunity, in particular the cases of cholera from Wang & Wang (2015, J. Biol. Dyn., 9, 233-261) and avian influenza from Vaidya et al. (2012, Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. Ser. B, 17, 2829-2848). In both works, similarly to all others in the literature on various models of infectious diseases and more, it had to be assumed for a technical reason that the diffusivity coefficients of the susceptible, infected and recovered individuals, humans or birds, had to be identical in order to prove the existence of their unique solutions for all time. Considering that such uniform diffusivity strengths among the susceptible, infected and recovered hosts may not always be plausible in real world, we investigate the global well-posedness issue when such conditions are relaxed. In particular for the cholera model from Wang & Wang (2015, J. Biol. Dyn., 9, 233-261), we prove the global well-posedness with no condition on the diffusivity coefficients at all. For the avian influenza model from Vaidya et al. (2012, Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. Ser. B, 17, 2829-2848), we prove the global well-posedness with no condition on the diffusivity coefficients if the spatial dimension is one, and under a partial condition that the diffusivity coefficients of the susceptible and the infected hosts are same otherwise. © The author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

  12. Fluorescence correlation and lifetime correlation spectroscopy applied to the study of supported lipid bilayer models of the cell membrane.

    PubMed

    Basit, Hajra; Lopez, Sergio G; Keyes, Tia E

    2014-07-01

    Supported Lipid Bilayers (SLBs) are versatile models capable of mimicking some of the key properties of the cell membrane, including for example lipid fluidity, domain formation and protein support, without the challenging complexity of the real biological system. This is important both from the perspective of understanding the behaviour and role of the lipid membrane in cell structure and signalling, as well as in development of applications of lipid membranes across domains as diverse as sensing and drug delivery. Lipid and protein diffusion within the membrane is vital to its function and there are several key experimental methods used to study membrane dynamics. Amongst the optical methods are Fluorescence Recovery After Photobleaching (FRAP), single particle tracking and Fluorescence Correlation (and Fluorescence Lifetime Correlation) Spectroscopy (FCS/FLCS). Each of these methods can provide different and often complementary perspectives on the dynamics of the fluid membrane. Although FCS is well established, FLCS is a relatively new technique and both methods have undergone a number of extensions in recent years which improve their precision and accuracy in studying supported lipid bilayers, most notably z-scan methods. This short review focusses on FCS and FLCS and their recent applications, specifically to artificial lipid bilayer studies addressing key issues of cell membrane behaviour. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Improved survival time: what can survival cure models tell us about population-based survival improvements in late-stage colorectal, ovarian, and testicular cancer?

    PubMed

    Huang, Lan; Cronin, Kathleen A; Johnson, Karen A; Mariotto, Angela B; Feuer, Eric J

    2008-05-15

    The objective of the current study was to investigate the long-term impact of treatment advances on the survival of patients with late-stage ovarian, colorectal (American Joint Committee on Cancer stage III, men), and testicular cancers by estimating the increase in the percentage cured from their disease and the change in survival time of uncured patients. Cause-specific survival data from 1973 to 2000 were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program. Survival cure models were fit and were used to estimate the gain in life expectancy (GLE) attributed to an increase in the fraction of cured patients and to prolonged survival among noncured patients. Treatment improvement for ovarian cancer resulted in a total GLE of 2 years, and 80% of that GLE was because of an extension of survival time in uncured patients (from 0.9 years to 2.1 years) rather than an increased cure fraction (from 12% to 14%). In contrast, the cure rate rose from 29% to 47% for colorectal cancer, representing 82% of a 2.8-year GLE, and from 23% to 81% for testicular cancer, representing 100% of a 24-year GLE. The current results suggested that treatment benefits for testicular and colorectal cancer in men with late-stage disease primarily are the result of increases in cure fraction, whereas survival gains for ovarian cancer occur despite persisting disease. Cure models, in combination with population-level data, provide insight into how treatment advances are changing survival and ultimately impacting mortality. Survival patterns reflect the underlying biology of response to cancer treatment and suggest promising directions for future research.

  14. Satellite lifetime prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wittenstein, Gerald

    1987-01-01

    Satellite lifetime predictions are critically dependent on the ability to forecast future solar and geomagnetic activity. These quantities are inputs to the atmospheric model with which values of atmospheric density are computed along a projected orbital path. Density values are combined with the predicted ballistic coefficient timeline to compute drag and predict decay histories. The major uncertainty in making predictions that pertain to the time periods that are years in the future is in the solar and geomagnetic activity projections, although the ballistic coefficient is also frequently in doubt. The study concludes that while present density models are adequate for planning, the inputs to them, particularly solar/geomagnetic activity indices, are unreliable.

  15. Lifetimes of lunar satellite orbits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meyer, Kurt W.; Buglia, James J.; Desai, Prasun N.

    1994-01-01

    The Space Exploration Initiative has generated a renewed interest in lunar mission planning. The lunar missions currently under study, unlike the Apollo missions, involve long stay times. Several lunar gravity models have been formulated, but mission planners do not have enough confidence in the proposed models to conduct detailed studies of missions with long stay times. In this report, a particular lunar gravitational model, the Ferrari 5 x 5 model, was chosen to determine the lifetimes for 100-km and 300-km perilune altitude, near-circular parking orbits. The need to analyze orbital lifetimes for a large number of initial orbital parameters was the motivation for the formulation of a simplified gravitational model from the original model. Using this model, orbital lifetimes were found to be heavily dependent on the initial conditions of the nearly circular orbits, particularly the initial inclination and argument of perilune. This selected model yielded lifetime predictions of less than 40 days for some orbits, and other orbits had lifetimes exceeding a year. Although inconsistencies and limitations are inherent in all existing lunar gravity models, primarily because of a lack of information about the far side of the moon, the methods presented in this analysis are suitable for incorporating the moon's nonspherical gravitational effects on the preliminary design level for future lunar mission planning.

  16. Zero-Inflated Models for Identifying Relationships Between Body Mass Index and Gastroesophageal Reflux Symptoms: A Nationwide Population-Based Study in China.

    PubMed

    Xu, Qin; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Tianyi; Zhang, Ruijie; Zhao, Yanfang; Zhang, Yuan; Guo, Yibin; Wang, Rui; Ma, Xiuqiang; He, Jia

    2016-07-01

    That obesity leads to gastroesophageal reflux is a widespread notion. However, scientific evidence for this association is limited, with no rigorous epidemiological approach conducted to address this question. This study examined the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and gastroesophageal reflux symptoms in a large population-representative sample from China. We performed a cross-sectional study in an age- and gender-stratified random sample of the population of five central regions in China. Participants aged 18-80 years completed a general information questionnaire and a Chinese version of the Reflux Disease Questionnaire. The zero-inflated Poisson regression model estimated the relationship between body mass index and gastroesophageal reflux symptoms. Overall, 16,091 (89.4 %) of the 18,000 eligible participants responded. 638 (3.97 %) and 1738 (10.81 %) experienced at least weekly heartburn and weekly acid regurgitation, respectively. After adjusting for potential risk factors in the zero-inflated part, the frequency [odds ratio (OR) 0.66, 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) 0.50-0.86, p = 0.002] and severity (OR 0.66, 95 % CI 0.50-088, p = 0.004) of heartburn in obese participants were statistically significant compared to those in normal participants. In the Poisson part, the frequency of acid regurgitation, overweight (OR 1.10, 95 % CI 1.01-1.21, p = 0.038) and obesity (OR 1.19, 95 % CI 1.04-1.37, p = 0.013) were statistically significant. BMI was strongly and positively related to the frequency and severity of gastroesophageal reflux symptoms. Additionally, gender exerted strong specific effects on the relationship between BMI and gastroesophageal reflux symptoms. The severity and frequency of heartburn were positively correlated with obesity. This relationship was presented distinct in male participants only.

  17. Testicular cancer incidence to rise by 25% by 2025 in Europe? Model-based predictions in 40 countries using population-based registry data.

    PubMed

    Le Cornet, Charlotte; Lortet-Tieulent, Joannie; Forman, David; Béranger, Rémi; Flechon, Aude; Fervers, Béatrice; Schüz, Joachim; Bray, Freddie

    2014-03-01

    Testicular cancer mainly affects White Caucasian populations, accounts for 1% of all male cancers, and is frequently the most common malignancy among young adult men. In light of the escalating rates of testicular cancer incidence in Europe, and in support of future planning to ensure optimal care of patients with what can be a curable disease, we predict the future burden in 40 European countries around 2025. Current observed trends were extrapolated with the NORDPRED model to estimate the future burden of testicular cancer in the context of changes in risk versus changes in demographics. Despite substantial heterogeneity in the rates, the vast majority of European countries will see an increasing burden over the next two decades. We estimate there will be 23,000 new cases of testicular cancer annually in Europe by 2025, a rise of 24% from 2005. Some of the most rapid increases in testicular cancer are observed in Croatia, Slovenia, Italy and Spain, and a transition is underway, whereby recent attenuations and declines in rates in certain high-risk countries in Northern Europe contrast with the increasing trends and escalating burden in Southern Europe. According to our estimates for 2025, around one in 100 men will be diagnosed with the disease annually in the highest risk countries of Europe (Croatia, Slovenia and Norway). Elucidating the key determinants of testicular cancer and the equitable provision of optimal care for patients across Europe are priorities given the steady rise in the number of patients by 2025, and an absence of primary prevention opportunities. None. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Favorable ratings of providers' communication behaviors among U.S. women with depression: a population-based study applying the behavioral model of health services use.

    PubMed

    Keller, Abiola O; Gangnon, Ronald; Witt, Whitney P

    2013-01-01

    Little is known about the relationships between sociodemographic characteristics and ratings of provider communication behavior among women with depression in the United States. This study uses the Andersen Behavioral Model to examine the relationships among predisposing, enabling, and need factors and ratings of perceived patient-provider communication in women with depression. The sample consisted of women with depression who visited any provider in the previous 12 months in the 2002-2008 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (n = 3,179; weighted n = 4,707,255). Multivariate logistic regression was used to examine the independent contribution of predisposing, enabling, and need factors on providers' communication behavior measures. Black (non-Hispanic) women were more likely to report that providers always listened carefully (odds ratio [OR], 1.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.94), explained so they understood (OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.10-2.11), and showed respect for what they had to say (OR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.01-1.92). Women participating in the paid workforce and those without a usual source of care were at increased risk for less favorable experiences. Participation in the paid workforce and lack of a usual source of care were associated with an increased likelihood of less optimal communication experiences. Ensuring that women with depression have reliable access to a continuous source of care and expanding the availability of nonemergent, after-hours care may be instrumental for improving patient-provider communication in this population. Copyright © 2013 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Cost-effectiveness analysis of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in Taiwan: A lifetime multi-cohort model

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Ming-Chin; Tan, Elise Chia-Hui; Su, Jian-Jhih

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT A government-funded trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) program to prevent seasonal influenza was implemented in Taiwan since 1998. However, mismatch between the vaccine and circulating strains may occur. Alternatively, a quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) includes all 4 influenza lineages could minimize the risk of mismatches. Therefore, QIV could be considered as an alternative strategy to enhance protection against seasonal influenza. The objective of the study was to analyze, from a governmental perspective, the cost-effectiveness of using QIV vs. TIV as a vaccination strategy in Taiwan. A lifetime multi-cohort, static Markov model was constructed with 9 age groups to assess the costs and effectiveness of QIV vs. TIV. Direct costs were obtained from a database released by the Ministry of Health and Welfare. Outcomes included life-years gained, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, influenza cases avoided and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The discount rate of costs and effectiveness was set at 3.5% and the time horizon used in the model was 100 y. Results show that a vaccination strategy utilizing QIV instead of TIV would bring an additional 10,557 QALYs at an extra cost of US$39.4 million, yielding an ICER of US$3,015.07 per QALY gained. When setting the willingness-to-pay threshold at US$10,000, compared to TIV, the probability that QIV would be cost-effective was 98%. Sensitivity analyses show that ICER was sensitive to the changes of circulation of influenza virus subtypes and vaccine mismatch. From a governmental perspective, the QIV vaccination could be considered as a cost-effective strategy within the context of public health in Taiwan. PMID:27624648

  20. Cost-effectiveness analysis of quadrivalent versus trivalent influenza vaccine in Taiwan: A lifetime multi-cohort model.

    PubMed

    Yang, Ming-Chin; Tan, Elise Chia-Hui; Su, Jian-Jhih

    2017-01-02

    A government-funded trivalent influenza vaccine (TIV) program to prevent seasonal influenza was implemented in Taiwan since 1998. However, mismatch between the vaccine and circulating strains may occur. Alternatively, a quadrivalent influenza vaccine (QIV) includes all 4 influenza lineages could minimize the risk of mismatches. Therefore, QIV could be considered as an alternative strategy to enhance protection against seasonal influenza. The objective of the study was to analyze, from a governmental perspective, the cost-effectiveness of using QIV vs. TIV as a vaccination strategy in Taiwan. A lifetime multi-cohort, static Markov model was constructed with 9 age groups to assess the costs and effectiveness of QIV vs. TIV. Direct costs were obtained from a database released by the Ministry of Health and Welfare. Outcomes included life-years gained, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, influenza cases avoided and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). The discount rate of costs and effectiveness was set at 3.5% and the time horizon used in the model was 100 y. Results show that a vaccination strategy utilizing QIV instead of TIV would bring an additional 10,557 QALYs at an extra cost of US$39.4 million, yielding an ICER of US$3,015.07 per QALY gained. When setting the willingness-to-pay threshold at US$10,000, compared to TIV, the probability that QIV would be cost-effective was 98%. Sensitivity analyses show that ICER was sensitive to the changes of circulation of influenza virus subtypes and vaccine mismatch. From a governmental perspective, the QIV vaccination could be considered as a cost-effective strategy within the context of public health in Taiwan.

  1. Bridging the Gap Between Large-Scale Drivers of CH4 Lifetime Model Differences & Instantaneous, Localized Measurements of OH & Related Species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nicely, J. M.; Apel, E. C.; Brune, W. H.; Commane, R.; Daube, B. C.; Deushi, M.; Diskin, G. S.; Duncan, B. N.; Hall, S. R.; Hanisco, T. F.; Hornbrook, R. S.; Joeckel, P.; Josse, B.; Kinnison, D. E.; Manyin, M.; McKain, K.; Miller, D. O.; Morgenstern, O.; Murray, L. T.; Oman, L.; Peischl, J.; Pozzer, A.; Revell, L. E.; Rozanov, E.; Ryerson, T. B.; Salawitch, R. J.; Stenke, A.; Thames, A. B.; Thompson, C. R.; Tilmes, S.; Tost, H.; Ullmann, K.; Westervelt, D. M.; Zeng, G.

    2017-12-01

    We have recently published a paper that shows how neural networks (NNs) can be used to quantify the extent to which a wide range of factors influence differences in the tropospheric burden of hydroxyl radical (OH) and the methane lifetime found by various chemical transport models (CTMs), using monthly mean output of a dozen variables [Nicely et al., JGR, 2017]. Across all CTMs, the largest mean differences in CH4 lifetime (ΔτCH4) result from variations in O3 (ΔτCH4 = 0.29 years), J(O3 -> O(1D)) (0.25 years), CO (0.22 years), and the chemical mechanisms (0.38 years). This work has since been expanded to study a larger group of chemistry-climate models (CCMs), which internally calculate free-running meteorological fields, that participated in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). We share the results of this analysis in addition to ongoing developments to the NN method to diagnose the fast radical cycling of OH and hydroperoxy radical, HO2, using high temporal frequency (30 minute) output from a focused group of global models. We then demonstrate how such insight into the diurnal variations and short timescale processes within a model can be used in conjunction with a global-scale observational data set, such as that of the Atmospheric Tomography Mission (ATom) aircraft campaign, to identify pathways forward to improve model representations of tropospheric OH and corresponding CH4 lifetime.

  2. Expected lifetime numbers and costs of fractures in postmenopausal women with and without osteoporosis in Germany: a discrete event simulation model

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Osteoporotic fractures cause a large health burden and substantial costs. This study estimated the expected fracture numbers and costs for the remaining lifetime of postmenopausal women in Germany. Methods A discrete event simulation (DES) model which tracks changes in fracture risk due to osteoporosis, a previous fracture or institutionalization in a nursing home was developed. Expected lifetime fracture numbers and costs per capita were estimated for postmenopausal women (aged 50 and older) at average osteoporosis risk (AOR) and for those never suffering from osteoporosis. Direct and indirect costs were modeled. Deterministic univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results The expected fracture numbers over the remaining lifetime of a 50 year old woman with AOR for each fracture type (% attributable to osteoporosis) were: hip 0.282 (57.9%), wrist 0.229 (18.2%), clinical vertebral 0.206 (39.2%), humerus 0.147 (43.5%), pelvis 0.105 (47.5%), and other femur 0.033 (52.1%). Expected discounted fracture lifetime costs (excess cost attributable to osteoporosis) per 50 year old woman with AOR amounted to €4,479 (€1,995). Most costs were accrued in the hospital €1,743 (€751) and long-term care sectors €1,210 (€620). Univariate sensitivity analysis resulted in percentage changes between -48.4% (if fracture rates decreased by 2% per year) and +83.5% (if fracture rates increased by 2% per year) compared to base case excess costs. Costs for women with osteoporosis were about 3.3 times of those never getting osteoporosis (€7,463 vs. €2,247), and were markedly increased for women with a previous fracture. Conclusion The results of this study indicate that osteoporosis causes a substantial share of fracture costs in postmenopausal women, which strongly increase with age and previous fractures. PMID:24981316

  3. Cost effectiveness of population based BRCA1 founder mutation testing in Sephardi Jewish women.

    PubMed

    Patel, Shreeya; Legood, Rosa; Evans, D Gareth; Turnbull, Clare; Antoniou, Antonis C; Menon, Usha; Jacobs, Ian; Manchanda, Ranjit

    2018-04-01

    Population-based BRCA1/BRCA2 founder-mutation testing has been demonstrated as cost effective compared with family history based testing in Ashkenazi Jewish women. However, only 1 of the 3 Ashkenazi Jewish BRCA1/BRCA2 founder mutations (185delAG[c.68_69delAG]), 5382insC[c.5266dupC]), and 6174delT[c.5946delT]) is found in the Sephardi Jewish population (185delAG[c.68_69delAG]), and the overall prevalence of BRCA mutations in the Sephardi Jewish population is accordingly lower (0.7% compared with 2.5% in the Ashkenazi Jewish population). Cost-effectiveness analyses of BRCA testing have not previously been performed at these lower BRCA prevalence levels seen in the Sephardi Jewish population. Here we present a cost-effectiveness analysis for UK and US populations comparing population testing with clinical criteria/family history-based testing in Sephardi Jewish women. A Markov model was built comparing the lifetime costs and effects of population-based BRCA1 testing, with testing using family history-based clinical criteria in Sephardi Jewish women aged ≥30 years. BRCA1 carriers identified were offered magnetic resonance imaging/mammograms and risk-reducing surgery. Costs are reported at 2015 prices. Outcomes include breast cancer, ovarian cancer, and excess deaths from heart disease. All costs and outcomes are discounted at 3.5%. The time horizon is lifetime, and perspective is payer. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio per quality-adjusted life-year was calculated. Parameter uncertainty was evaluated through 1-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Population testing resulted in gain in life expectancy of 12 months (quality-adjusted life-year = 1.00). The baseline discounted incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for UK population-based testing was £67.04/quality-adjusted life-year and for US population was $308.42/quality-adjusted life-year. Results were robust in the 1-way sensitivity analysis. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed 100% of

  4. Preindustrial to Present-Day Changes in Tropospheric Hydroxyl Radical and Methane Lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Naik, V.; Voulgarakis, A.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lin, M.; Prather, M. J.; Young, P. J.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; hide

    2013-01-01

    We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6%) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the

  5. On the reduced lifetime of nitrous oxide due to climate change induced acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as simulated by the MPI Earth System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kracher, D.; Manzini, E.; Reick, C. H.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.

    2014-12-01

    Greenhouse gas induced climate change will modify the physical conditions of the atmosphere. One of the projected changes is an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere, as it has been shown in many model studies. This change in the stratospheric circulation consequently bears an effect on the transport and distribution of atmospheric components such as N2O. Since N2O is involved in ozone destruction, a modified distribution of N2O can be of importance for ozone chemistry. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decays only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere can also affect the stratospheric sink of N2O, and consequently its atmospheric lifetime. N2O is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of currently approximately 300 CO2-equivalents in a 100-year perspective. A faster decay in atmospheric N2O mixing ratios, i.e. a decreased atmospheric lifetime of N2O, will also reduce its global warming potential. In order to assess the impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O, we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean-atmosphere N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation. Increasing surface temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the stratosphere impact atmospheric circulation differently. Thus, we conduct a series of transient runs with the atmospheric model of MPI-ESM to isolate different factors governing a shift in atmospheric circulation. From those transient

  6. Validity of LIDAS (LIfetime Depression Assessment Self-report): a self-report online assessment of lifetime major depressive disorder.

    PubMed

    Bot, M; Middeldorp, C M; de Geus, E J C; Lau, H M; Sinke, M; van Nieuwenhuizen, B; Smit, J H; Boomsma, D I; Penninx, B W J H

    2017-01-01

    There is a paucity of valid, brief instruments for the assessment of lifetime major depressive disorder (MDD) that can be used in, for example, large-scale genomics, imaging or biomarker studies on depression. We developed the LIfetime Depression Assessment Self-report (LIDAS), which assesses lifetime MDD diagnosis according to DSM criteria, and is largely based on the widely used Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Here, we tested the feasibility and determined the sensitivity and specificity for measuring lifetime MDD with this new questionnaire, with a regular CIDI as reference. Sensitivity and specificity analyses of the online lifetime MDD questionnaire were performed in adults with (n = 177) and without (n = 87) lifetime MDD according to regular index CIDIs, selected from the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA) and Netherlands Twin Register (NTR). Feasibility was tested in an additional non-selective, population-based sample of NTR participants (n = 245). Of the 753 invited persons, 509 (68%) completed the LIDAS, of which 419 (82%) did this online. User-friendliness of the instrument was rated high. Median completion time was 6.2 min. Sensitivity and specificity for lifetime MDD were 85% [95% confidence interval (CI) 80-91%] and 80% (95% CI 72-89%), respectively. This LIDAS instrument gave a lifetime MDD prevalence of 20.8% in the population-based sample. Measuring lifetime MDD with an online instrument was feasible. Sensitivity and specificity were adequate. The instrument gave a prevalence of lifetime MDD in line with reported population prevalences. LIDAS is a promising tool for rapid determination of lifetime MDD status in large samples, such as needed for genomics studies.

  7. Tropospheric OH and the lifetimes of hydrochlorofluorocarbons

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prather, Michael; Spivakovsky, Clarisa M.

    1990-01-01

    Hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs) may be used as alternatives for the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs). Lifetimes for the HCFCs are predicted here in two ways: integrating their loss with a global model and scaling to another compound with a better known lifetime. Both approaches are shown to yield similar results. Three-dimensional fields of modeled tropospheric OH concentrations are used to calculate lifetimes against destruction by OH for the HCFCs and other hydrogenated halocarbons. The lifetimes of various hydro-halocarbons are shown to be insensitive to possible spatial variations and seasonal cycles. It is possible to scale the HCFC lifetimes to that of methyl chloroform or methane by using a ratio of the rate coefficients for reaction with OH at an appropriate temperature, about 277 K.

  8. Hepatocellular carcinoma and antidepressants: a nationwide population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Vincent Chin-Hung; Lin, Chiao-Fan; Hsieh, Yi-Hsuan; Liang, Hsin-Yi; Huang, Kuo-You; Lee, Yena; McIntyre, Roger S.

    2017-01-01

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is highly prevalent in Asia. Antidepressants have been associated with increase in hepatocellular carcinoma. This is the first Asian population-based study to evaluate the association between antidepressant use and risk of HCC. Based on Taiwans National Health Insurance Research Database, we conducted a nationwide population-based study. A total of 49,998 cases with HCC were identified and paired with 244,236 randomly selected controls. The data was analyzed via the conditional logistic regression model adjusting for several confounding factors. Use of tricyclic antidepressants (TCAs) and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs) was associated with lower risk for HCC. No apparent association was found between use of other classes of antidepressants and HCC, including monoamine oxidase inhibitors (MAOIs), serotonin norepinephrine reuptake inhibitors (SNRIs), trazodone, mirtazapine and bupropion. The findings of a protective effect of TCAs and SSRIs for HCC should be interpreted with caution and warrants further research. PMID:27783998

  9. Thermo-mechanical and neutron lifetime modeling and design of Be pebbles in the neutron multiplier for the LIFE engine

    SciTech Connect

    DeMange, P; Marian, J; de Caro, M S

    2009-03-16

    Concept designs for the laser-initiated fusion/fission engine (LIFE) include a neutron multiplication blanket containing Be pebbles flowing in a molten salt coolant. These pebbles must be designed to withstand the extreme irradiation and temperature conditions in the blanket to enable a safe and cost-effective operation of LIFE. In this work, we develop design criteria for spherical Be pebbles on the basis of their thermomechanical behavior under continued neutron exposure. We consider the effects of high fluence/fast flux on the elastic, thermal and mechanical properties of nuclear-grade Be. Our results suggest a maximum pebble diameter of 30 mm to avoid tensilemore » failure, coated with an anti-corrosive, high-strength metallic shell to avoid failure by pebble contact. Moreover, we find that the operation temperature must always be kept above 450 C to enable creep to relax the stresses induced by swelling, which we estimate to be at least 16 months if uncoated and up to six years when coated. We identify the sources of uncertainty on the properties used and discuss the advantages of new intermetallic beryllides and their use in LIFE's neutron multiplier. To establish Be-pebble lifetimes with improved confidence, reliable experiments to measure irradiation creep must be performed.« less

  10. Stochastic Analysis of Orbital Lifetimes of Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sasamoto, Washito; Goodliff, Kandyce; Cornelius, David

    2008-01-01

    A document discusses (1) a Monte-Carlo-based methodology for probabilistic prediction and analysis of orbital lifetimes of spacecraft and (2) Orbital Lifetime Monte Carlo (OLMC)--a Fortran computer program, consisting of a previously developed long-term orbit-propagator integrated with a Monte Carlo engine. OLMC enables modeling of variances of key physical parameters that affect orbital lifetimes through the use of probability distributions. These parameters include altitude, speed, and flight-path angle at insertion into orbit; solar flux; and launch delays. The products of OLMC are predicted lifetimes (durations above specified minimum altitudes) for the number of user-specified cases. Histograms generated from such predictions can be used to determine the probabilities that spacecraft will satisfy lifetime requirements. The document discusses uncertainties that affect modeling of orbital lifetimes. Issues of repeatability, smoothness of distributions, and code run time are considered for the purpose of establishing values of code-specific parameters and number of Monte Carlo runs. Results from test cases are interpreted as demonstrating that solar-flux predictions are primary sources of variations in predicted lifetimes. Therefore, it is concluded, multiple sets of predictions should be utilized to fully characterize the lifetime range of a spacecraft.

  11. A Lagrangian estimate of aircraft effluent lifetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoeberl, M. R.; Jackman, C. H.; Rosenfield, J. E.

    1998-05-01

    The lifetime of aircraft exhaust is estimated using multiyear diabatic trajectory integrations using United Kingdom Meteorological Office and Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Data Assimilation Office winds. Instantaneous January trajectory parcel releases in the midlatitude stratosphere at 19, 16, 14, 13, and 11 km are compared. The first two cases correspond to the proposed flight altitudes of high-speed supersonic aircraft. The last two cases correspond to subsonic flight altitudes. Parcels descending below 250 hPa are eliminated as would occur when aircraft effluent reaches the troposphere. After a transient adjustment period the total number of parcels in most experiments decays exponentially with a decay period (lifetime) of about 1 year. This is the lifetime of the longest-lived eigenmode as discussed by Prather [1996]. Our 1-year lifetime is shorter than the 1.5 year GSFC two-dimensional (2-D) model lifetime for the same release, but in good agreement with the 1.13 year GSFC 3-D model lifetime. We also find that the effluent lifetime is slightly longer in the southern hemisphere midlatitude stratosphere than in the northern. Both the 13 and 11 km releases are mostly within the stratospheric middle world and rapidly leave the stratosphere. We conclude that there will be a small impact of subsonic aircraft exhaust on the larger stratosphere. Finally, we find that our overall lifetime results are fairly sensitive to the lower stratospheric heating rates.

  12. Cost-effectiveness analysis of population-based screening of hepatocellular carcinoma: Comparing ultrasonography with two-stage screening

    PubMed Central

    Kuo, Ming-Jeng; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Chen, Chi-Ling; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Lin, Yu-Min; Liao, Chao-Sheng; Chang, Hung-Chuen; Lin, Yueh-Shih; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of two population-based hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening programs, two-stage biomarker-ultrasound method and mass screening using abdominal ultrasonography (AUS). METHODS: In this study, we applied a Markov decision model with a societal perspective and a lifetime horizon for the general population-based cohorts in an area with high HCC incidence, such as Taiwan. The accuracy of biomarkers and ultrasonography was estimated from published meta-analyses. The costs of surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment were based on a combination of published literature, Medicare payments, and medical expenditure at the National Taiwan University Hospital. The main outcome measure was cost per life-year gained with a 3% annual discount rate. RESULTS: The results show that the mass screening using AUS was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD39825 per life-year gained, whereas two-stage screening was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD49733 per life-year gained, as compared with no screening. Screening programs with an initial screening age of 50 years old and biennial screening interval were the most cost-effective. These findings were sensitive to the costs of screening tools and the specificity of biomarker screening. CONCLUSION: Mass screening using AUS is more cost effective than two-stage biomarker-ultrasound screening. The most optimal strategy is an initial screening age at 50 years old with a 2-year inter-screening interval. PMID:27022228

  13. Using hierarchical cluster models to systematically identify groups of jobs with similar occupational questionnaire response patterns to assist rule-based expert exposure assessment in population-based studies.

    PubMed

    Friesen, Melissa C; Shortreed, Susan M; Wheeler, David C; Burstyn, Igor; Vermeulen, Roel; Pronk, Anjoeka; Colt, Joanne S; Baris, Dalsu; Karagas, Margaret R; Schwenn, Molly; Johnson, Alison; Armenti, Karla R; Silverman, Debra T; Yu, Kai

    2015-05-01

    Rule-based expert exposure assessment based on questionnaire response patterns in population-based studies improves the transparency of the decisions. The number of unique response patterns, however, can be nearly equal to the number of jobs. An expert may reduce the number of patterns that need assessment using expert opinion, but each expert may identify different patterns of responses that identify an exposure scenario. Here, hierarchical clustering methods are proposed as a systematic data reduction step to reproducibly identify similar questionnaire response patterns prior to obtaining expert estimates. As a proof-of-concept, we used hierarchical clustering methods to identify groups of jobs (clusters) with similar responses to diesel exhaust-related questions and then evaluated whether the jobs within a cluster had similar (previously assessed) estimates of occupational diesel exhaust exposure. Using the New England Bladder Cancer Study as a case study, we applied hierarchical cluster models to the diesel-related variables extracted from the occupational history and job- and industry-specific questionnaires (modules). Cluster models were separately developed for two subsets: (i) 5395 jobs with ≥1 variable extracted from the occupational history indicating a potential diesel exposure scenario, but without a module with diesel-related questions; and (ii) 5929 jobs with both occupational history and module responses to diesel-relevant questions. For each subset, we varied the numbers of clusters extracted from the cluster tree developed for each model from 100 to 1000 groups of jobs. Using previously made estimates of the probability (ordinal), intensity (µg m(-3) respirable elemental carbon), and frequency (hours per week) of occupational exposure to diesel exhaust, we examined the similarity of the exposure estimates for jobs within the same cluster in two ways. First, the clusters' homogeneity (defined as >75% with the same estimate) was examined compared

  14. Using Hierarchical Cluster Models to Systematically Identify Groups of Jobs With Similar Occupational Questionnaire Response Patterns to Assist Rule-Based Expert Exposure Assessment in Population-Based Studies

    PubMed Central

    Friesen, Melissa C.; Shortreed, Susan M.; Wheeler, David C.; Burstyn, Igor; Vermeulen, Roel; Pronk, Anjoeka; Colt, Joanne S.; Baris, Dalsu; Karagas, Margaret R.; Schwenn, Molly; Johnson, Alison; Armenti, Karla R.; Silverman, Debra T.; Yu, Kai

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: Rule-based expert exposure assessment based on questionnaire response patterns in population-based studies improves the transparency of the decisions. The number of unique response patterns, however, can be nearly equal to the number of jobs. An expert may reduce the number of patterns that need assessment using expert opinion, but each expert may identify different patterns of responses that identify an exposure scenario. Here, hierarchical clustering methods are proposed as a systematic data reduction step to reproducibly identify similar questionnaire response patterns prior to obtaining expert estimates. As a proof-of-concept, we used hierarchical clustering methods to identify groups of jobs (clusters) with similar responses to diesel exhaust-related questions and then evaluated whether the jobs within a cluster had similar (previously assessed) estimates of occupational diesel exhaust exposure. Methods: Using the New England Bladder Cancer Study as a case study, we applied hierarchical cluster models to the diesel-related variables extracted from the occupational history and job- and industry-specific questionnaires (modules). Cluster models were separately developed for two subsets: (i) 5395 jobs with ≥1 variable extracted from the occupational history indicating a potential diesel exposure scenario, but without a module with diesel-related questions; and (ii) 5929 jobs with both occupational history and module responses to diesel-relevant questions. For each subset, we varied the numbers of clusters extracted from the cluster tree developed for each model from 100 to 1000 groups of jobs. Using previously made estimates of the probability (ordinal), intensity (µg m−3 respirable elemental carbon), and frequency (hours per week) of occupational exposure to diesel exhaust, we examined the similarity of the exposure estimates for jobs within the same cluster in two ways. First, the clusters’ homogeneity (defined as >75% with the same estimate

  15. Predicting Successful Aging in a Population-Based Sample of Georgia Centenarians

    PubMed Central

    Arnold, Jonathan; Dai, Jianliang; Nahapetyan, Lusine; Arte, Ankit; Johnson, Mary Ann; Hausman, Dorothy; Rodgers, Willard L.; Hensley, Robert; Martin, Peter; MacDonald, Maurice; Davey, Adam; Siegler, Ilene C.; Jazwinski, S. Michal; Poon, Leonard W.

    2010-01-01

    Used a population-based sample (Georgia Centenarian Study, GCS), to determine proportions of centenarians reaching 100 years as (1) survivors (43%) of chronic diseases first experienced between 0–80 years of age, (2) delayers (36%) with chronic diseases first experienced between 80–98 years of age, or (3) escapers (17%) with chronic diseases only at 98 years of age or older. Diseases fall into two morbidity profiles of 11 chronic diseases; one including cardiovascular disease, cancer, anemia, and osteoporosis, and another including dementia. Centenarians at risk for cancer in their lifetime tended to be escapers (73%), while those at risk for cardiovascular disease tended to be survivors (24%), delayers (39%), or escapers (32%). Approximately half (43%) of the centenarians did not experience dementia. Psychiatric disorders were positively associated with dementia, but prevalence of depression, anxiety, and psychoses did not differ significantly between centenarians and an octogenarian control group. However, centenarians were higher on the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) than octogenarians. Consistent with our model of developmental adaptation in aging, distal life events contribute to predicting survivorship outcome in which health status as survivor, delayer, or escaper appears as adaptation variables late in life. PMID:20885919

  16. Predicting successful aging in a population-based sample of georgia centenarians.

    PubMed

    Arnold, Jonathan; Dai, Jianliang; Nahapetyan, Lusine; Arte, Ankit; Johnson, Mary Ann; Hausman, Dorothy; Rodgers, Willard L; Hensley, Robert; Martin, Peter; Macdonald, Maurice; Davey, Adam; Siegler, Ilene C; Jazwinski, S Michal; Poon, Leonard W

    2010-01-01

    Used a population-based sample (Georgia Centenarian Study, GCS), to determine proportions of centenarians reaching 100 years as (1) survivors (43%) of chronic diseases first experienced between 0-80 years of age, (2) delayers (36%) with chronic diseases first experienced between 80-98 years of age, or (3) escapers (17%) with chronic diseases only at 98 years of age or older. Diseases fall into two morbidity profiles of 11 chronic diseases; one including cardiovascular disease, cancer, anemia, and osteoporosis, and another including dementia. Centenarians at risk for cancer in their lifetime tended to be escapers (73%), while those at risk for cardiovascular disease tended to be survivors (24%), delayers (39%), or escapers (32%). Approximately half (43%) of the centenarians did not experience dementia. Psychiatric disorders were positively associated with dementia, but prevalence of depression, anxiety, and psychoses did not differ significantly between centenarians and an octogenarian control group. However, centenarians were higher on the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) than octogenarians. Consistent with our model of developmental adaptation in aging, distal life events contribute to predicting survivorship outcome in which health status as survivor, delayer, or escaper appears as adaptation variables late in life.

  17. SO2 Emissions and Lifetimes: Estimates from Inverse Modeling Using In Situ and Global, Space-Based (SCIAMACHY and OMI) Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Chulkyu; Martin Randall V.; vanDonkelaar, Aaron; Lee, Hanlim; Dickerson, RUssell R.; Hains, Jennifer C.; Krotkov, Nickolay; Richter, Andreas; Vinnikov, Konstantine; Schwab, James J.

    2011-01-01

    Top-down constraints on global sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions are inferred through inverse modeling using SO2 column observations from two satellite instruments (SCIAMACHY and OMI). We first evaluated the S02 column observations with surface SO2 measurements by applying local scaling factors from a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to SO2 columns retrieved from the satellite instruments. The resulting annual mean surface SO2 mixing ratios for 2006 exhibit a significant spatial correlation (r=0.86, slope=0.91 for SCIAMACHY and r=0.80, slope = 0.79 for OMI) with coincident in situ measurements from monitoring networks throughout the United States and Canada. We evaluate the GEOS-Chem simulation of the SO2 lifetime with that inferred from in situ measurements to verity the applicability of GEOS-Chem for inversion of SO2 columns to emissions. The seasonal mean SO2 lifetime calculated with the GEOS-Chem model over the eastern United States is 13 h in summer and 48 h in winter, compared to lifetimes inferred from in situ measurements of 19 +/- 7 h in summer and 58 +/- 20 h in winter. We apply SO2 columns from SCIAMACHY and OMI to derive a top-down anthropogenic SO2 emission inventory over land by using the local GEOS-Chem relationship between SO2 columns and emissions. There is little seasonal variation in the top-down emissions (<15%) over most major industrial regions providing some confidence in the method. Our global estimate for annual land surface anthropogenic SO2 emissions (52.4 Tg S/yr from SCIAMACHY and 49.9 Tg S / yr from OMI) closely agrees with the bottom-up emissions (54.6 Tg S/yr) in the GEOS-Chem model and exhibits consistency in global distributions with the bottom-up emissions (r = 0.78 for SCIAMACHY, and r = 0.77 for OMI). However, there are significant regional differences.

  18. Anhedonia associated with stimulant use and dependence in a population-based sample of American adults.

    PubMed

    Leventhal, Adam M; Brightman, Molly; Ameringer, Katherine J; Greenberg, Jodie; Mickens, Lavonda; Ray, Lara A; Sun, Ping; Sussman, Steve

    2010-12-01

    Prior research suggests an association between anhedonia--diminished interest or pleasure in rewarding activities--and stimulant use in selected samples. However, it is unclear whether this association generalizes to the overall population and is consistent across stimulant drug types (amphetamine vs. cocaine) and outcome characteristics (any lifetime use vs. dependence). Questions also remain as to whether the anhedonia-stimulant relationship is unique from covariance with depressed mood, psychiatric disorders, and nonstimulant substance use. The current study addressed these questions by examining anhedonia-stimulant relationships in a cross-sectional population-based sample of 43,093 American adults. Results indicated that lifetime anhedonia and depressed mood each were positively associated with lifetime stimulant use and lifetime dependence among those who reported stimulant use. Anhedonia-stimulant relationships were consistent across amphetamine- and cocaine-related outcomes and distinct from covariance with depressed mood, which exhibited no association over and above the effect of anhedonia. After adjusting for demographic, psychiatric, and nonstimulant substance use characteristics, anhedonia-stimulant associations remained significant, although effect sizes were partially attenuated. Lifetime anhedonia was also more prevalent among respondents who initiated use but did not eventually progress to dependence in comparison with individuals who never once used a stimulant drug. Anhedonia appears to be uniquely associated with lifetime use of cocaine and amphetamines and lifetime progression from use to dependence in the American population. Albeit cross-sectional in nature, these findings add further support to the generalizability and specificity of the anhedonia-stimulant relationship. Future research utilizing longitudinal and experimental designs are warranted to clarify the underpinnings of this association. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all

  19. Lifetime of kaonium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krewald, S.; Lemmer, R. H.; Sassen, F. P.

    2004-01-01

    The kaon-antikaon system is studied in both the atomic and the strongly interacting sector. We discuss the influence of the structures of the f0(980) and the a0(980) mesons on the lifetime of kaonium. The strong interactions are generated by vector meson exchange within the framework of the standard SU(3)V×SU(3)A invariant effective Lagrangian. In the atomic sector, the energy levels and decay widths of kaonium are determined by an eigenvalue equation of the Kudryavtsev-Popov type, with the strong interaction effects entering through the complex scattering length for KK¯ scattering and annihilation. The presence of two scalar mesons f0(980) and a0(980) leads to a ground state energy for the kaonium atom that is shifted above the point Coulomb value by a few hundred eV. The effect on the lifetime for the kaonium decay into two pions is much more dramatic. This lifetime is reduced by two orders of magnitude from 1.2×10-16 sec for annihilation in a pure Coulomb field down to 3.2×10-18 sec when the strong interactions are included. The analysis of the two photon decay width of the f0(980) suggests a generalization of the molecular picture which reduces the lifetime of kaonium still further to 1.1×10-18 sec.

  20. Implementation of Remaining Useful Lifetime Transformer Models in the Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management Suite

    SciTech Connect

    Agarwal, Vivek; Lybeck, Nancy J.; Pham, Binh

    2015-02-01

    Research and development efforts are required to address aging and reliability concerns of the existing fleet of nuclear power plants. As most plants continue to operate beyond the license life (i.e., towards 60 or 80 years), plant components are more likely to incur age-related degradation mechanisms. To assess and manage the health of aging plant assets across the nuclear industry, the Electric Power Research Institute has developed a web-based Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite for diagnosis and prognosis. FW-PHM is a set of web-based diagnostic and prognostic tools and databases, comprised of the Diagnostic Advisor, the Asset Faultmore » Signature Database, the Remaining Useful Life Advisor, and the Remaining Useful Life Database, that serves as an integrated health monitoring architecture. The main focus of this paper is the implementation of prognostic models for generator step-up transformers in the FW-PHM Suite. One prognostic model discussed is based on the functional relationship between degree of polymerization, (the most commonly used metrics to assess the health of the winding insulation in a transformer) and furfural concentration in the insulating oil. The other model is based on thermal-induced degradation of the transformer insulation. By utilizing transformer loading information, established thermal models are used to estimate the hot spot temperature inside the transformer winding. Both models are implemented in the Remaining Useful Life Database of the FW-PHM Suite. The Remaining Useful Life Advisor utilizes the implemented prognostic models to estimate the remaining useful life of the paper winding insulation in the transformer based on actual oil testing and operational data.« less

  1. Estimating the long-term effects of in vitro fertilization in Greece: an analysis based on a lifetime-investment model.

    PubMed

    Fragoulakis, Vassilis; Maniadakis, Nikolaos

    2013-01-01

    To quantify the economic effects of a child conceived by in vitro fertilization (IVF) in terms of net tax revenue from the state's perspective in Greece. Based on previous international experience, a mathematical model was developed to assess the lifetime productivity of a single individual and his/her lifetime transactions with governmental agencies. The model distinguished among three periods in the economic life cycle of an individual: (1) early life, when the government primarily contributes resources through child tax credits, health care, and educational expenses; (2) employment, when individuals begin returning resources through taxes; and (3) retirement, when the government expends additional resources on pensions and health care. The cost of a live birth with IVF was based on the modification of a previously published model developed by the authors. All outcomes were discounted at a 3% discount rate. The data inputs - namely, the economic or demographic variables - were derived from the National Statistical Secretariat of Greece and other relevant sources. To deal with uncertainty, bias-corrected uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated based on 5000 Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, to examine the robustness of our results, other one-way sensitivity analyses were also employed. The cost of IVF per birth was estimated at €17,015 (95% UI: €13,932-€20,200). The average projected income generated by an individual throughout his/her productive life was €258,070 (95% UI: €185,376-€339,831). In addition, his/her life tax contribution was estimated at €133,947 (95% UI: €100,126-€177,375), while the discounted governmental expenses for elderly and underage individuals were €67,624 (95% UI: €55,211-€83,930). Hence, the net present value of IVF was €60,435 (95% UI: €33,651-€94,330), representing a 182% net return on investment. Results remained constant under various assumptions for the main model parameters. State-funded IVF may

  2. Febrile seizures: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Dalbem, Juliane S; Siqueira, Heloise H; Espinosa, Mariano M; Alvarenga, Regina P

    2015-01-01

    To determine the prevalence of benign febrile seizures of childhood and describe the clinical and epidemiological profile of this population. This was a population-based, cross-sectional study, carried out in the city of Barra do Bugres, MT, Brazil, from August 2012 to August 2013. Data were collected in two phases. In the first phase, a questionnaire that was previously validated in another Brazilian study was used to identify suspected cases of seizures. In the second phase, a neurological evaluation was performed to confirm diagnosis. The prevalence was 6.4/1000 inhabitants (95% CI: 3.8-10.1). There was no difference between genders. Simple febrile seizures were found in 88.8% of cases. A family history of febrile seizures in first-degree relatives and history of epilepsy was present in 33.3% and 11.1% of patients, respectively. The prevalence of febrile seizures in Midwestern Brazil was lower than that found in other Brazilian regions, probably due to the inclusion only of febrile seizures with motor manifestations and differences in socioeconomic factors among the evaluated areas. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  3. Characterization of creep damage and lifetime in Inconel-713C nickel-based superalloy by stress-based, strain/strain rate-based and continuum damage mechanics models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bahmanabadi, H.; Rezanezhad, S.; Azadi, M.; Azadi, M.

    2018-02-01

    This article has presented suitable creep lifetime prediction models for Inconel-713C nickel-based superalloy. For such objective, the characterization of the creep damage and lifetime has been performed by considering stress-based model, strain/strain rate models and continuum damage mechanics models. For calibrating material models, creep tests at 850 °C have been performed on the Inconel-713C nickel-based superalloy under different stress levels. Obtained results indicated that reliable/valid models, according to a proper relative error and a low scatter-band, were the Monkman-Grant strain rate-based model and the continuum damage mechanics model. The scanning electron microcopy (SEM) analysis showed that the matrix pattern of crept specimens changed, when the applied stress changed under creep loading. In addition, the one-dimension form could be considered for the shape of carbides.

  4. The Potential Cost-Effectiveness of Quadrivalent versus Trivalent Influenza Vaccine in Elderly People and Clinical Risk Groups in the UK: A Lifetime Multi-Cohort Model

    PubMed Central

    Van Bellinghen, Laure-Anne; Meier, Genevieve; Van Vlaenderen, Ilse

    2014-01-01

    Objective To estimate the potential cost-effectiveness of quadrivalent influenza vaccine compared with trivalent influenza vaccine in the UK. Methods A lifetime, multi-cohort, static Markov model was constructed, with nine age groups each divided into healthy and at-risk categories. Influenza A and B were accounted for separately. The model was run in one-year cycles for a lifetime (maximum age: 100 years). The analysis was from the perspective of the UK National Health Service. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5%. 2010 UK vaccination policy (vaccination of people at risk and those aged ≥65 years) was applied. Herd effect was not included. Inputs were derived from national databases and published sources where possible. The quadrivalent influenza vaccine price was not available when the study was conducted. It was estimated at £6.72,15% above the trivalent vaccine price of £5.85. Sensitivity analyses used an incremental price of up to 50%. Results Compared with trivalent influenza vaccine, the quadrivalent influenza vaccine would be expected to reduce the numbers of influenza cases by 1,393,720, medical visits by 439,852 complications by 167,357, hospitalisations for complications by 26,424 and influenza deaths by 16,471. The estimated base case incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was £5,299/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Sensitivity analyses indicated that the ICER was sensitive to changes in circulation of influenza virus subtypes and vaccine mismatch; all other parameters had little effect. In 96% of simulations the ICER was <£20,000/QALY. Since this analysis was completed, quadrivalent influenza vaccine has become available in the UK at a list price of £9.94. Using this price in the model, the estimated ICER for quadrivalent compared with trivalent vaccination was £27,378/QALY, still within the NICE cost-effectiveness threshold (£20,000-£30,000). Conclusions Quadrivalent influenza vaccine could reduce influenza disease burden and

  5. Discriminating famous from fictional names based on lifetime experience: evidence in support of a signal-detection model based on finite mixture distributions.

    PubMed

    Bowles, Ben; Harlow, Iain M; Meeking, Melissa M; Köhler, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    It is widely accepted that signal-detection mechanisms contribute to item-recognition memory decisions that involve discriminations between targets and lures based on a controlled laboratory study episode. Here, the authors employed mathematical modeling of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) to determine whether and how a signal-detection mechanism contributes to discriminations between moderately famous and fictional names based on lifetime experience. Unique to fame judgments is a lack of control over participants' previous exposure to the stimuli deemed "targets" by the experimenter; specifically, if they pertain to moderately famous individuals, participants may have had no prior exposure to a substantial proportion of the famous names presented. The authors adopted established models from the recognition-memory literature to examine the quantitative fit that could be obtained through the inclusion of signal-detection and threshold mechanisms for two data sets. They first established that a signal-detection process operating on graded evidence is critical to account for the fame judgment data they collected. They then determined whether the graded memory evidence for famous names would best be described with one distribution with greater variance than that for the fictional names, or with two finite mixture distributions for famous names that correspond to items with or without prior exposure, respectively. Analyses revealed that a model that included a d' parameter, as well as a mixture parameter, provided the best compromise between number of parameters and quantitative fit. Additional comparisons between this equal-variance signal-detection mixture model and a dual-process model, which included a high-threshold process in addition to a signal-detection process, also favored the former model. In support of the conjecture that the mixture parameter captures participants' prior experience, the authors found that it was increased when the analysis was

  6. Filter replacement lifetime prediction

    DOEpatents

    Hamann, Hendrik F.; Klein, Levente I.; Manzer, Dennis G.; Marianno, Fernando J.

    2017-10-25

    Methods and systems for predicting a filter lifetime include building a filter effectiveness history based on contaminant sensor information associated with a filter; determining a rate of filter consumption with a processor based on the filter effectiveness history; and determining a remaining filter lifetime based on the determined rate of filter consumption. Methods and systems for increasing filter economy include measuring contaminants in an internal and an external environment; determining a cost of a corrosion rate increase if unfiltered external air intake is increased for cooling; determining a cost of increased air pressure to filter external air; and if the cost of filtering external air exceeds the cost of the corrosion rate increase, increasing an intake of unfiltered external air.

  7. Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frame, Dave; Joshi, Manoj; Hawkins, Ed; Harrington, Luke J.; de Roiste, Mairead

    2017-06-01

    Time of emergence, which characterizes when significant signals of climate change will emerge from existing variability, is a useful and increasingly common metric. However, a more useful metric for understanding future climate change in the context of past experience may be the ratio of climate signal to noise (S/N)--a measure of the amplitude of change expressed in terms of units of existing variability. Here, we present S/N projections in the context of emergent climates (termed `unusual’, `unfamiliar’ and `unknown’ by reference to an individual’s lifetime), highlighting sensitivity to future emissions scenarios and geographical and human groupings. We show how for large sections of the world’s population, and for several geopolitical international groupings, mitigation can delay the onset of `unknown’ or `unfamiliar’ climates by decades, and perhaps even beyond 2100. Our results demonstrate that the benefits of mitigation accumulate over several decades, a key metric of which is reducing S/N, or keeping climate as familiar as possible. A relationship is also identified between cumulative emissions and patterns of emergent climate signals. Timely mitigation will therefore provide the greatest benefits to those facing the earliest impacts, many of whom are alive now.

  8. Challenges and demands in the population-based work of public health nurses.

    PubMed

    Dahl, Berit Misund

    2018-02-01

    Government programs and the Norwegian Directorate of Health give public health nurses in Norway an explicit role in population-based health promotion and disease-prevention work. The aim of this paper is to explore Norwegian public health nurses' experiences with population-based work. A phenomenological hermeneutic approach was adopted, involving face-to-face interviews with a purposeful sample of 23 public health nurses from urban and rural districts in two counties in Norway. Three themes were identified: the predominance of work at the individual level, a lack of resources, and adherence to administrative directives. The interviews revealed that the public health nurses were mostly occupied with individual problem-solving activities. Population-based work was hardly prioritized, mostly because of a lack of resources and a lack of recognition of the population-based role of public health nurses. The study indicates contradictions between the public health nursing practice related to population-based work and the direction outlined by the government and the public health nursing curriculum, which may mean that the public health nursing role is not sufficiently clarified. The implementation of practice models and administrative directives and resources, as well as an explicit emphasis on population health in public health nursing education, can contribute to increased population-based interventions. Greater knowledge of and emphasis on population-based work in public health nursing are needed.

  9. Health economic evaluation of Human Papillomavirus vaccines in women from Venezuela by a lifetime Markov cohort model.

    PubMed

    Bardach, Ariel Esteban; Garay, Osvaldo Ulises; Calderón, María; Pichón-Riviére, Andrés; Augustovski, Federico; Martí, Sebastián García; Cortiñas, Paula; Gonzalez, Marino; Naranjo, Laura T; Gomez, Jorge Alberto; Caporale, Joaquín Enzo

    2017-02-02

    Cervical cancer (CC) and genital warts (GW) are a significant public health issue in Venezuela. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of the two available vaccines, bivalent and quadrivalent, against Human Papillomavirus (HPV) in Venezuelan girls in order to inform decision-makers. A previously published Markov cohort model, informed by the best available evidence, was adapted to the Venezuelan context to evaluate the effects of vaccination on health and healthcare costs from the perspective of the healthcare payer in an 11-year-old girls cohort of 264,489. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were discounted at 5%. Eight scenarios were analyzed to depict the cost-effectiveness under alternative vaccine prices, exchange rates and dosing schemes. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Compared to screening only, the bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines were cost-saving in all scenarios, avoiding 2,310 and 2,143 deaths, 4,781 and 4,431 CCs up to 18,459 GW for the quadrivalent vaccine and gaining 4,486 and 4,395 discounted QALYs respectively. For both vaccines, the main determinants of variations in the incremental costs-effectiveness ratio after running deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were transition probabilities, vaccine and cancer-treatment costs and HPV 16 and 18 distribution in CC cases. When comparing vaccines, none of them was consistently more cost-effective than the other. In sensitivity analyses, for these comparisons, the main determinants were GW incidence, the level of cross-protection and, for some scenarios, vaccines costs. Immunization with the bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccines showed to be cost-saving or cost-effective in Venezuela, falling below the threshold of one Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (104,404 VEF) per QALY gained. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these results.

  10. Maximizing TDRS Command Load Lifetime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Aaron J.

    2002-01-01

    The GNC software onboard ISS utilizes TORS command loads, and a simplistic model of TORS orbital motion to generate onboard TORS state vectors. Each TORS command load contains five "invariant" orbital elements which serve as inputs to the onboard propagation algorithm. These elements include semi-major axis, inclination, time of last ascending node crossing, right ascension of ascending node, and mean motion. Running parallel to the onboard software is the TORS Command Builder Tool application, located in the JSC Mission Control Center. The TORS Command Builder Tool is responsible for building the TORS command loads using a ground TORS state vector, mirroring the onboard propagation algorithm, and assessing the fidelity of current TORS command loads onboard ISS. The tool works by extracting a ground state vector at a given time from a current TORS ephemeris, and then calculating the corresponding "onboard" TORS state vector at the same time using the current onboard TORS command load. The tool then performs a comparison between these two vectors and displays the relative differences in the command builder tool GUI. If the RSS position difference between these two vectors exceeds the tolerable lim its, a new command load is built using the ground state vector and uplinked to ISS. A command load's lifetime is therefore defined as the time from when a command load is built to the time the RSS position difference exceeds the tolerable limit. From the outset of TORS command load operations (STS-98), command load lifetime was limited to approximately one week due to the simplicity of both the onboard propagation algorithm, and the algorithm used by the command builder tool to generate the invariant orbital elements. It was soon desired to extend command load lifetime in order to minimize potential risk due to frequent ISS commanding. Initial studies indicated that command load lifetime was most sensitive to changes in mean motion. Finding a suitable value for mean motion

  11. Global three-dimensional model calculations of the budgets and present-day atmospheric lifetimes of CF2ClCFCl2 (CFC-113) and CHClF2 (CFC-22)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golombek, Amram; Prinn, Ronald G.

    1989-01-01

    The annual percentage increases in concentrations of the chlorofluorocarbons CFC-113 (an industrial solvent) and CFC-22 (a refrigerant) are the highest among major chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere today. The present-day atmospheric lifetimes for these species are computed using a global three-dimensional dynamical-chemical model. The present-day lifetimes of both are long (15.5 years for CFC-22 and 136 or 195 years for CFC-113, depending on assumed O2 absorption cross sections), underscoring the need to decrease their emissions in order to minimize their future role in ozone destruction and greenhouse warming.

  12. Lifetime interpersonal violence and self-reported chlamydia trachomatis diagnosis among California women.

    PubMed

    Alvarez, Jennifer; Pavao, Joanne; Mack, Katelyn P; Chow, Joan M; Baumrind, Nikki; Kimerling, Rachel

    2009-01-01

    To examine the relationship between cumulative exposure to various types of interpersonal violence throughout the life span and self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) diagnosis in a population-based sample of California women. This was a cross-sectional analysis of a population-based survey of California women aged 18-44 years (n = 3521). Participants reported their experience of multiple types of interpersonal violence: physical or sexual abuse in childhood or adulthood and intimate partner violence (IPV) in the past 12 months. Current posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depressive symptoms were also reported. Separate logistic regression models assessed the association between experiencing each type of interpersonal violence, as well as women's cumulative exposure to violence, and past CT diagnosis, adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, and poverty, as well as mental health problems. Six percent of women reported a past diagnosis of CT, and 40.8% reported experiencing at least one type of interpersonal violence in their lifetime. All types of violence were significantly associated with higher odds of having a past CT diagnosis even after controlling for sociodemographics. Women who reported experiencing four or more types of violence experiences had over five times the odds of reporting a lifetime CT diagnosis compared with women who never experienced interpersonal violence (adjusted odds ratio = 5.71, 95% CI 3.27-9.58). Current PTSD and depressive symptoms did not significantly affect the relationship between a woman's cumulative experience of violence and her risk of past CT diagnosis. There is a robust association between experiencing multiple forms of violence and having been diagnosed with CT. Women who seek treatment for sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), such as CT, should be assessed for their lifetime history of violence, especially violence in their current intimate relationships. Sexual risk reduction counseling may also be important

  13. Induced abortion, pregnancy loss and intimate partner violence in Tanzania: a population based study

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Violence by an intimate partner is increasingly recognized as an important public and reproductive health issue. The aim of this study is to investigate the extent to which physical and/or sexual intimate partner violence is associated with induced abortion and pregnancy loss from other causes and to compare this with other, more commonly recognized explanatory factors. Methods This study analyzes the data of the Tanzania section of the WHO Multi-Country Study on Women's Health and Domestic Violence, a large population-based cross-sectional survey of women of reproductive age in Dar es Salaam and Mbeya, Tanzania, conducted from 2001 to 2002. All women who answered positively to at least one of the questions about specific acts of physical or sexual violence committed by a partner towards her at any point in her life were considered to have experienced intimate partner violence. Associations between self reported induced abortion and pregnancy loss with intimate partner violence were analysed using multiple regression models. Results Lifetime physical and/or sexual intimate partner violence was reported by 41% and 56% of ever partnered, ever pregnant women in Dar es Salaam and Mbeya respectively. Among the ever pregnant, ever partnered women, 23% experienced involuntary pregnancy loss, while 7% reported induced abortion. Even after adjusting for other explanatory factors, women who experienced intimate partner violence were 1.6 (95%CI: 1.06,1.60) times more likely to report an pregnancy loss and 1.9 (95%CI: 1.30,2.89) times more likely to report an induced abortion. Intimate partner violence had a stronger influence on induced abortion and pregnancy loss than women's age, socio-economic status, and number of live born children. Conclusions Intimate partner violence is likely to be an important influence on levels of induced abortion and pregnancy loss in Tanzania. Preventing intimate partner violence may therefore be beneficial for maternal health and

  14. Testing associations between cannabis use and subcortical volumes in two large population-based samples.

    PubMed

    Gillespie, Nathan A; Neale, Michael C; Bates, Timothy C; Eyler, Lisa T; Fennema-Notestine, Christine; Vassileva, Jasmin; Lyons, Michael J; Prom-Wormley, Elizabeth C; McMahon, Katie L; Thompson, Paul M; de Zubicaray, Greig; Hickie, Ian B; McGrath, John J; Strike, Lachlan T; Rentería, Miguel E; Panizzon, Matthew S; Martin, Nicholas G; Franz, Carol E; Kremen, William S; Wright, Margaret J

    2018-04-24

    Disentangling the putative impact of cannabis on brain morphology from other comorbid substance use is critical. After controlling for the effects of nicotine, alcohol and multi-substance use, this study aimed to determine whether frequent cannabis use is associated with significantly smaller subcortical grey matter volumes. Exploratory analyses using mixed linear models, one per region of interest (ROI), were performed whereby individual differences in volume (outcome) at seven subcortical ROIs were regressed onto cannabis and comorbid substance use (predictors). Two large population-based twin samples from the United States and Australia. 622 young Australian adults (66% female; μ age = 25.9, SD=3.6), and 474 middle-age U.S. males (μ age = 56.1 SD=2.6 ) of predominately Anglo-Saxon ancestry with complete substance use and imaging data. Subjects with a history of stroke or traumatic brain injury were excluded. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and volumetric segmentation methods were used to estimate volume in seven subcortical ROIs: thalamus; caudate nucleus; putamen; pallidum; hippocampus; amygdala; and nucleus accumbens. Substance use measurements included maximum nicotine and alcohol use, total lifetime multi-substance use, maximum cannabis use in the young adults, and regular cannabis use in the middle-age males. After correcting for multiple testing (p=0.007), cannabis use was unrelated to any subcortical ROI. However, maximum nicotine use was associated with significantly smaller thalamus volumes in middle-age males. In exploratory analyses based on young adult and middle age samples, normal variation in cannabis use is statistically unrelated to individual differences in brain morphology as measured by subcortical volume. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  15. Lifetime of surface plasmons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mahan, G. D.

    2018-02-01

    We calculate the lifetime of a surface plasmon on the surface of jellium metal from the process of the surface plasmon decaying into electron-hole pairs in the metal. We find that this process only occurs over a finite interval of wave vector, and at large values of wave vector. Our calculation contained two new features: (i) we used the Brillouin formula to normalize the electromagnetic field traveling along the surface and (ii) we included the spin rotation term in the electron current. The latter contribution has no effect at large wave vector of the surface plasmon.

  16. Dependence of the charge exchange lifetimes on mirror latitude

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, P. H.; Bewtra, N. K.

    1976-01-01

    The dependence of the charge exchange lifetimes on the mirror latitude for ions mirroring off the geomagnetic equator was re-computed using the improved hydrogen distribution models. The Chamberlain model was used to define the spatial distribution of the neutral hydrogen environment through which the ring current ions traverse. The resultant dependence of the charge exchange lifetime on mirror latitude is best fitted by the approximation that contains the charge exchange lifetime for equatorial particles.

  17. Fluorescence lifetime based bioassays

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meyer-Almes, Franz-Josef

    2017-12-01

    Fluorescence lifetime (FLT) is a robust intrinsic property and material constant of fluorescent matter. Measuring this important physical indicator has evolved from a laboratory curiosity to a powerful and established technique for a variety of applications in drug discovery, medical diagnostics and basic biological research. This distinct trend was mainly driven by improved and meanwhile affordable laser and detection instrumentation on the one hand, and the development of suitable FLT probes and biological assays on the other. In this process two essential working approaches emerged. The first one is primarily focused on high throughput applications employing biochemical in vitro assays with no requirement for high spatial resolution. The second even more dynamic trend is the significant expansion of assay methods combining highly time and spatially resolved fluorescence data by fluorescence lifetime imaging. The latter approach is currently pursued to enable not only the investigation of immortal tumor cell lines, but also specific tissues or even organs in living animals. This review tries to give an actual overview about the current status of FLT based bioassays and the wide range of application opportunities in biomedical and life science areas. In addition, future trends of FLT technologies will be discussed.

  18. Perceived discrimination among men and women with normal weight and obesity. A population-based study from Sweden.

    PubMed

    Hansson, Lena M; Näslund, Erik; Rasmussen, Finn

    2010-08-01

    We examined whether men and women with obesity reported different types of discrimination to a greater extent than those with normal weight, and explored whether these associations were modified by socioeconomic position. National representative sample of men and women, with normal weight (n = 2,000), moderate obesity (n = 2,461) and severe obesity (n = 557). Participants were identified in a yearly population-based survey (1996-2006) and data on perceived discrimination and potential confounding factors were measured in 2008. Logistic regression models tested whether obesity was associated with perceived lifetime, workplace, healthcare and interpersonal discrimination. The overall response rate was 56%. For men, moderate obesity was associated with workplace discrimination, while severely obese women were more likely to report this sort of discrimination than normal weight women. Severely obese individuals were twice as likely to report healthcare discrimination than normal weight individuals. Women, regardless of weight status group, were in turn twice as likely to report healthcare discrimination as men. Women with severe obesity were significantly more likely to report interpersonal discrimination compared with normal weight women. Socioeconomic position modified the association between weight status and healthcare discrimination. Highly educated individuals with moderate and severe obesity were more likely to report healthcare discrimination than their normal weight counterparts, whereas low educated individuals with normal weight, moderate and severe obesity were equally likely to report discrimination. In this large, population-based study, discrimination was more likely to be reported by obese individuals compared with those of normal weight. The associations, however, varied according to gender and socioeconomic position.

  19. A satellite mortality study to support space systems lifetime prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory F.

    Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

  20. A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory

    2013-01-01

    Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

  1. Lifetime Risk of Symptomatic Hand Osteoarthritis: The Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project.

    PubMed

    Qin, Jin; Barbour, Kamil E; Murphy, Louise B; Nelson, Amanda E; Schwartz, Todd A; Helmick, Charles G; Allen, Kelli D; Renner, Jordan B; Baker, Nancy A; Jordan, Joanne M

    2017-06-01

    Symptomatic hand osteoarthritis (OA) is a common condition that affects hand strength and function, and causes disability in activities of daily living. Prior studies have estimated that the lifetime risk of symptomatic knee OA is 45% and that of hip OA is 25%. The objective of the present study was to estimate the overall lifetime risk of symptomatic hand OA, and the stratified lifetime risk according to potential risk factors. Data were obtained from 2,218 adult subjects (ages ≥45 years) in the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project, a population-based prospective cohort study among residents of Johnston County, North Carolina. Data for the present study were collected from 2 of the follow-up cycles (1999-2004 and 2005-2010). Symptomatic hand OA was defined as the presence of both self-reported symptoms and radiographic OA in the same hand. Lifetime risk, defined as the proportion of the population who will develop symptomatic hand OA in at least 1 hand by age 85 years, was estimated from models using generalized estimating equations. Overall, the lifetime risk of symptomatic hand OA was 39.8% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 34.4-45.3%). In this population, nearly 1 in 2 women (47.2%, 95% CI 40.6-53.9%) had an estimated lifetime risk of developing symptomatic hand OA by age 85 years, compared with 1 in 4 men (24.6%, 95% CI 19.5-30.5%). Race-specific symptomatic hand OA risk estimates were 41.4% (95% CI 35.5-47.6%) among whites and 29.2% (95% CI 20.5-39.7%) among African Americans. The lifetime risk of symptomatic hand OA among individuals with obesity (47.1%, 95% CI 37.8-56.7%) was 11 percentage points higher than that in individuals without obesity (36.1%, 95% CI 29.7-42.9%). These findings demonstrate the substantial burden of symptomatic hand OA overall and in sociodemographic and clinical subgroups. Increased use of public health and clinical interventions is needed to address its impact. © 2017, American College of Rheumatology.

  2. Parenting and risk for mood, anxiety and substance use disorders: a study in population-based male twins

    PubMed Central

    Gardner, Charles O.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Hettema, John M.

    2013-01-01

    Background Previous studies consistently identified a relationship between parenting behavior and psychopathology. In this study, we extended prior analyses performed in female twins to a large sample of twins from male–male pairs. Methods We used interview data on 2,609 adult male twins from a population-based twin registry. We examined the association between three retrospectively reported parenting dimensions (coldness, protectiveness, and authoritarianism) and lifetime history of seven common psychiatric and substance use disorders. Using univariate structural equation modeling, we also examined the influence of the genetic and environmental factors on parenting. Results Examined individually, coldness was consistently associated with risk for a broad range of adult psychopathology. Averaged odds of psychiatric disorders associated with parenting were increased between 26 and 36 %. When the three parenting dimensions were examined together, coldness remained significant for major depression, phobia, and generalized anxiety disorder. Controlling for other disorders, the associations between the parenting dimensions and psychopathology were non-specific. Twin fitting model demonstrated that modest heritability accounted for parenting, whereas most variance resulted from the non-shared environment. Conclusions Based on our current and prior findings, there is broad similarity in the impact of parenting on adult psychopathology between men and women. PMID:23344783

  3. Protective effect of Aronia melanocarpa polyphenols against cadmium-induced disorders in bone metabolism: a study in a rat model of lifetime human exposure to this heavy metal.

    PubMed

    Brzóska, Malgorzata M; Rogalska, Joanna; Galazyn-Sidorczuk, Malgorzata; Jurczuk, Maria; Roszczenko, Alicja; Tomczyk, Michal

    2015-03-05

    It was investigated, in a female rat model of low and moderate lifetime human exposure to cadmium (Cd), whether polyphenols from Aronia melanocarpa berries (chokeberry; AMP) may offer protection from this heavy metal-induced disorders in bone metabolism. For this purpose, numerous indices of bone formation (osteocalcin, alkaline phosphatase, osteoprotegerin) and resorption (carboxy-terminal cross-linking telopeptides of type I collagen, soluble receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB ligand) in the serum and/or distal femur epiphysis (trabecular bone region), as well as bone mineral status (volumetric bone mineral density of the femur and content of mineral components, including calcium, in the bone tissue at the distal femur epiphysis) were evaluated in female Wistar rats that received a 0.1% aqueous extract of AMP, as the only drinking fluid (prepared from lyophilized extract by Adamed Consumer Healthcare), and/or Cd in diet (1 and 5mg/kg) for 3, 10, 17, and 24 months. Examination of the phytochemical profile of the aronia extract revealed high content of polyphenols (612.40 ± 3.33 mg/g), including anthocyanins, proanthocyanidins, phenolic acids, and flavonoids. Among detected compounds anthocyanins were identified as dominating. The exposure to Cd, dose- and duration-dependently, enhanced resorption and inhibited formation of the bone tissue resulting in its decreased mineralization. The administration of AMP under the exposure to 1 and 5 mgCd/kg diet provided important protection from this heavy metal-induced disturbances in the bone turnover and changes in the bone mineral status, and the beneficial impact of polyphenols resulted from their independent action and interaction with Cd. These findings suggest that consumption of Aronia melanocarpa polyphenols may play a role in prevention against female skeleton damage due to chronic exposure to Cd and that chokeberry represents the good natural plant candidate for further investigations of its prophylactic use

  4. Tropospheric hydroxyl concentrations and the lifetimes of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prather, Michael J.

    1990-01-01

    Three dimensional fields of modeled tropospheric OH concentrations are used to calculate lifetimes against destruction by OH for many hydrogenated halocarbons, including the CFC alternatives. The OH fields were taken from a 3-D chemical transport model (Spivakovsky et al. 1989) that accurately simulates the global measurements of methyl chloroform (derived lifetime of 5.5 years). The lifetimes of various hydro-halocarbons are shown to be insensitive to possible spatial variations and seasonal cycles. It is possible to scale the HCFC lifetimes to that of methyl chloroform or methane by using the ratio of the rate coefficients for reaction with OH at an appropriate temperature, about 277 K.

  5. Age, period, and cohort effects in adult lifetime asthma prevalence in California: an application of hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis.

    PubMed

    Ryan-Ibarra, Suzanne; Milet, Meredith; Lutzker, Liza; Rodriguez, Danielle; Induni, Marta; Kreutzer, Rick

    2016-02-01

    Using 27 years of survey data, the contributions of age, period, and cohort effects on the increase in adult lifetime asthma prevalence in California were examined. Lifetime asthma diagnosis for adults was assessed in 1984-1992 and 1995-2011 through the California Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, an annual, cross-sectional, population-based survey (n = 144,100). Using date of survey and date of birth, we classified 18,305 adult respondents with lifetime asthma into 7 age groups, 6 periods, and 17 cohorts. Using hierarchical, cross-classified random effects models, birth cohort, period, and age patterns in adult lifetime asthma prevalence were analyzed. After adjusting for sex, ethnicity, education, and smoking, age effects peak in young adulthood, flatten from 40 to 60 years old, and then decrease in older adulthood. A significant positive trend in asthma prevalence was observed in the two earliest survey periods (1984-1993; P value < .0001). Survey period trends appear to flatten beginning in 2004. Although the overall birth cohort effect was statistically significant, the magnitude of the effect for each birth cohort category was small (P value = .0005). We observed that strong age and period effects have been driving the increase in lifetime asthma prevalence in California over the past 3 decades. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Population-based register of stroke: manual of operations.

    PubMed

    Giampaoli, Simona; Hammar, Niklas; Adany, Roza; De Peretti, Christine

    2007-12-01

    Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death and hospitalization in both sexes in nearly all countries of Europe. The main forms of cardiovascular disease are ischaemic heart disease and stroke. Stroke by itself is the second leading cause of death in the European Union, and the annual number of cases of stroke is expected to increase within the next few decades, mainly owing to a growth in the proportion of older people. Stroke is an expensive disease because of the large number of premature deaths, ongoing disability in survivors, and the impact on families or caregivers and on health services (treatment and rehabilitation). Therefore, there is a pressing need to make stroke prevention and treatment a priority, to reduce the growing health burden and lessen its socioeconomic impact. The magnitude of the problem contrasts with the shortage, weak quality, and comparability of data available in most European countries. A stepwise surveillance procedure based on standardized data collection, appropriate record linkage, and validation methods was set up by the EUROCISS project (EUROpean Cardiovascular Indicators Surveillance Set), to build up comparable and reliable indicators for the surveillance of stroke at the population level.This manual of operations is intended for health professionals and policy makers. It provides a standardized and simple model for the implementation of a population-based register, which can provide estimates of attack rate and case fatality. The manual recommends starting from a minimum data set. Before implementing a population-based register, it is important to identify the target population under surveillance, which should preferably cover a well defined geographical and administrative area or region representative of the whole country, where population data and vital statistics (mortality and hospital discharge records at least) are routinely collected and easily available each year. All cases among residents should be recorded

  7. Lifetime secondhand smoke exposure and childhood and adolescent asthma: findings from the PIAMA cohort.

    PubMed

    Milanzi, Edith B; Brunekreef, Bert; Koppelman, Gerard H; Wijga, Alet H; van Rossem, Lenie; Vonk, Judith M; Smit, Henriëtte A; Gehring, Ulrike

    2017-02-23

    Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure is a modifiable risk factor associated with childhood asthma. Associations with adolescent asthma and the relevance of the timing and patterns of exposure are unclear. Knowledge of critical windows of exposure is important for targeted interventions. We used data until age 17 from 1454 children of the Dutch population-based PIAMA birth cohort. Residential SHS exposure was assessed through parental questionnaires completed at ages 3 months, 1-8 (yearly), 11, 14, and 17 years. Lifetime exposure was determined as; a) time window-specific exposure (prenatal, infancy, preschool, primary school, and secondary school); b) lifetime cumulative exposure; c) longitudinal exposure patterns using latent class growth modeling (LCGM). Generalized estimation equations and logistic regression were used to analyze associations between exposure and asthma at ages 4 to 17 years, adjusting for potential confounders. With all three methods, we consistently found no association between SHS exposure and asthma at ages 4 to 17 years e.g. adjusted overall odds ratio (95% confidence interval) 0.67 (0.41-1.12), 1.00 (0.66-1.51) and 0.67 (0.41-1.11) for prenatal maternal active smoking, infancy, and preschool school time window exposures, respectively. We assessed lifetime SHS exposure using different methods. Different timing and patterns of SHS exposure were not associated with an increased risk of asthma in childhood and adolescence in our study. More longitudinal studies could investigate effects of lifetime SHS exposure on asthma in adolescence and later life.

  8. Insight into carrier lifetime impact on band-modulation devices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parihar, Mukta Singh; Lee, Kyung Hwa; Park, Hyung Jin; Lacord, Joris; Martinie, Sébastien; Barbé, Jean-Charles; Xu, Yue; El Dirani, Hassan; Taur, Yuan; Cristoloveanu, Sorin; Bawedin, Maryline

    2018-05-01

    A systematic study to model and characterize the band-modulation Z2-FET device is developed bringing light to the relevance of the carrier lifetime influence. This work provides guidelines to optimize the Z2-FETs for sharp switching, ESD protection, and 1T-DRAM applications. Lower carrier lifetime in the Z2-FET helps in attaining the sharp switch. We provide new insights into the correlation between generation/recombination, diffusion, electrostatic barriers and carrier lifetime.

  9. History of depression and risk of hyperemesis gravidarum: a population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Kjeldgaard, Helena Kames; Eberhard-Gran, Malin; Benth, Jūratė Šaltytė; Nordeng, Hedvig; Vikanes, Åse Vigdis

    2017-06-01

    Hyperemesis gravidarum (HG) is a pregnancy condition characterised by debilitating nausea and vomiting. HG has been associated with depression during pregnancy but the direction of the association remains unclear. The aim of this study was to assess whether previous depression is associated with HG. This is a population-based pregnancy cohort study using data from The Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study. The study reviewed 731 pregnancies with HG and 81,055 pregnancies without. Logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the association between a lifetime history of depression and hyperemesis gravidarum. Odds ratios were adjusted for symptoms of current depression, maternal age, parity, body mass index, smoking, sex of the child, education and pelvic girdle pain. A lifetime history of depression was associated with higher odds for hyperemesis gravidarum (aOR = 1.49, 95% CI (1.23; 1.79)). Two thirds of women with hyperemesis gravidarum had neither a history of depression nor symptoms of current depression, and 1.2% of women with a history of depression developed HG. A lifetime history of depression increased the risk of HG. However, given the fact that only 1.2% of women with a history of depression developed HG and that the majority of women with HG had no symptoms of depression, depression does not seem to be a main driver in the aetiology of HG.

  10. Adult Prevalence of Epilepsy in Spain: EPIBERIA, a Population-Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Serrano-Castro, Pedro J.; Mauri-Llerda, Jose Angel; Hernández-Ramos, Francisco José; Sánchez-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Parejo-Carbonell, Beatriz; Quiroga-Subirana, Pablo; Vázquez-Gutierrez, Fernando; Santos-Lasaosa, Sonia; Mendez-Lucena, Carolina; Redondo-Verge, Luis; Tejero-Juste, Carlos; Morandeira-Rivas, Clara; Sancho-Rieger, Jerónimo; Matías-Guiu, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    Background. This study assesses the lifetime and active prevalence of epilepsy in Spain in people older than 18 years. Methods. EPIBERIA is a population-based epidemiological study of epilepsy prevalence using data from three representative Spanish regions (health districts in Zaragoza, Almería, and Seville) between 2012 and 2013. The study consisted of two phases: screening and confirmation. Participants completed a previously validated questionnaire (EPIBERIA questionnaire) over the telephone. Results. A total of 1741 valid questionnaires were obtained, including 261 (14.99%) raising a suspicion of epilepsy. Of these suspected cases, 216 (82.75%) agreed to participate in phase 2. Of the phase 2 participants, 22 met the International League Against Epilepsy's diagnostic criteria for epilepsy. The estimated lifetime prevalence, adjusted by age and sex per 1,000 people, was 14.87 (95% CI: 9.8–21.9). Active prevalence was 5.79 (95% CI: 2.8–10.6). No significant age, sex, or regional differences in prevalence were detected. Conclusions. EPIBERIA provides the most accurate estimate of epilepsy prevalence in the Mediterranean region based on its original methodology and its adherence to ILAE recommendations. We highlight that the lifetime prevalence and inactive epilepsy prevalence figures observed here were compared to other epidemiological studies. PMID:26783554

  11. Cost-effectiveness of Population-Based BRCA1, BRCA2, RAD51C, RAD51D, BRIP1, PALB2 Mutation Testing in Unselected General Population Women.

    PubMed

    Manchanda, Ranjit; Patel, Shreeya; Gordeev, Vladimir S; Antoniou, Antonis C; Smith, Shantel; Lee, Andrew; Hopper, John L; MacInnis, Robert J; Turnbull, Clare; Ramus, Susan J; Gayther, Simon A; Pharoah, Paul D P; Menon, Usha; Jacobs, Ian; Legood, Rosa

    2018-01-18

    The cost-effectiveness of population-based panel testing for high- and moderate-penetrance ovarian cancer (OC)/breast cancer (BC) gene mutations is unknown. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of population-based BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1/PALB2 mutation testing compared with clinical criteria/family history (FH) testing in unselected general population women. A decision-analytic model comparing lifetime costs and effects of criteria/FH-based BRCA1/BRCA2 testing is compared with BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1/PALB2 testing in those fulfilling clinical criteria/strong FH of cancer (≥10% BRCA1/BRCA2 probability) and all women age 30 years or older. Analyses are presented for UK and US populations. Identified carriers undergo risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy. BRCA1/BRCA2/PALB2 carriers can opt for magnetic resonance imaging/mammography, chemoprevention, or risk-reducing mastectomy. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) enabled model uncertainty evaluation. Outcomes include OC, BC, and additional heart disease deaths. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), OC incidence, BC incidence, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) were calculated. The time horizon is lifetime and perspective is payer. Compared with clinical criteria/FH-based BRCA1/BRCA2 testing, clinical criteria/FH-based BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1/PALB2 testing is cost-effective (ICER = £7629.65/QALY or $49 282.19/QALY; 0.04 days' life-expectancy gained). Population-based testing for BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1/PALB2 mutations is the most cost-effective strategy compared with current policy: ICER = £21 599.96/QALY or $54 769.78/QALY (9.34 or 7.57 days' life-expectancy gained). At £30 000/QALY and $100 000/QALY willingness-to-pay thresholds, population-based BRCA1/BRCA2/RAD51C/RAD51D/BRIP1/PALB2 panel testing is the preferred strategy in 83.7% and 92.7% of PSA simulations; criteria/FH-based panel testing is preferred in 16.2% and 5.8% of simulations

  12. Cost-effectiveness of population based BRCA testing with varying Ashkenazi Jewish ancestry.

    PubMed

    Manchanda, Ranjit; Patel, Shreeya; Antoniou, Antonis C; Levy-Lahad, Ephrat; Turnbull, Clare; Evans, D Gareth; Hopper, John L; Macinnis, Robert J; Menon, Usha; Jacobs, Ian; Legood, Rosa

    2017-11-01

    Population-based BRCA1/BRCA2 testing has been found to be cost-effective compared with family history-based testing in Ashkenazi-Jewish women were >30 years old with 4 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents. However, individuals may have 1, 2, or 3 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents, and cost-effectiveness data are lacking at these lower BRCA prevalence estimates. We present an updated cost-effectiveness analysis of population BRCA1/BRCA2 testing for women with 1, 2, and 3 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents. Decision analysis model. Lifetime costs and effects of population and family history-based testing were compared with the use of a decision analysis model. 56% BRCA carriers are missed by family history criteria alone. Analyses were conducted for United Kingdom and United States populations. Model parameters were obtained from the Genetic Cancer Prediction through Population Screening trial and published literature. Model parameters and BRCA population prevalence for individuals with 3, 2, or 1 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent were adjusted for the relative frequency of BRCA mutations in the Ashkenazi-Jewish and general populations. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for all Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent scenarios. Costs, along with outcomes, were discounted at 3.5%. The time horizon of the analysis is "life-time," and perspective is "payer." Probabilistic sensitivity analysis evaluated model uncertainty. Population testing for BRCA mutations is cost-saving in Ashkenazi-Jewish women with 2, 3, or 4 grandparents (22-33 days life-gained) in the United Kingdom and 1, 2, 3, or 4 grandparents (12-26 days life-gained) in the United States populations, respectively. It is also extremely cost-effective in women in the United Kingdom with just 1 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £863 per quality-adjusted life-years and 15 days life gained. Results show that population-testing remains cost-effective at the £20,000-30000 per quality

  13. A case-cohort study examining lifetime exposure to inorganic arsenic in drinking water and diabetes mellitus.

    PubMed

    James, Katherine A; Marshall, Julie A; Hokanson, John E; Meliker, Jaymie R; Zerbe, Gary O; Byers, Tim E

    2013-05-01

    Consumption of drinking water with high levels of inorganic arsenic (over 500 μg/L) has been associated with type II diabetes mellitus (DM), but previous studies have been inconclusive about risks at lower levels (<100 μg/L). We present a case-cohort study based on individual estimates of lifetime arsenic exposure to examine the relationship between chronic low-level arsenic exposure and risk of DM. This case-cohort study included 141 cases of DM diagnosed between 1984 and 1998 as part of the prospective San Luis Valley Diabetes Study. A comparison sub-cohort of 488 participants was randomly sampled from 936 eligible participants who were disease free at baseline. Individual lifetime arsenic exposure estimates were determined using a methodology that incorporates the use of a structured interview to determine lifetime residence and employment history, geospatial modeling of arsenic concentrations in drinking water, and urine arsenic concentrations. A Cox proportional hazards model with known DM risk factors as time-dependent covariates was used to assess the association between lifetime exposure to inorganic arsenic in drinking water and incident DM. Our findings show a significant association between inorganic arsenic exposure and DM risk (hazard ratio [HR]=1.27, 95%=1.01, 1.59 per 15 μg/L) while adjusting for ethnicity and time varying covariates age, body mass index and physical activity level. Exposure to low-level inorganic arsenic in drinking water is associated with increased risk for type II DM in this population based on a comprehensive lifetime exposure assessment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Pinhole shifting lifetime imaging microscopy

    PubMed Central

    Ramshesh, Venkat K.; Lemasters, John J.

    2009-01-01

    Lifetime imaging microscopy is a powerful tool to probe biological phenomena independent of luminescence intensity and fluorophore concentration. We describe time-resolved imaging of long-lifetime luminescence with an unmodified commercial laser scanning confocal/multiphoton microscope. The principle of the measurement is displacement of the detection pinhole to collect delayed luminescence from a position lagging the rasting laser beam. As proof of principle, luminescence from microspheres containing europium (Eu3+), a red emitting probe, was compared to that of short-lifetime green-fluorescing microspheres and/or fluorescein and rhodamine in solution. Using 720-nm two-photon excitation and a pinhole diameter of 1 Airy unit, the short-lifetime fluorescence of fluorescein, rhodamine and green microspheres disappeared much more rapidly than the long-lifetime phosphorescence of Eu3+ microspheres as the pinhole was repositioned in the lagging direction. In contrast, repositioning of the pinhole in the leading and orthogonal directions caused equal loss of short- and long-lifetime luminescence. From measurements at different lag pinhole positions, a lifetime of 270 μs was estimated for the Eu3+ microspheres, consistent with independent measurements. This simple adaptation is the basis for quantitative 3-D lifetime imaging microscopy. PMID:19123648

  15. Association of Lifetime Intellectual Enrichment with Cognitive Decline in the Older Population

    PubMed Central

    Vemuri, Prashanthi; Lesnick, Timothy G.; Przybelski, Scott A.; Machulda, Mary; Knopman, David S.; Mielke, Michelle M.; Roberts, Rosebud O.; Geda, Yonas E.; Rocca, Walter A.; Petersen, Ronald C.; Jack, Clifford R.

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Intellectual lifestyle enrichment throughout life is increasingly viewed as a protective strategy against commonly observed cognitive decline in the elderly. OBJECTIVE To investigate the association of lifetime intellectual enrichment with baseline cognitive performance and rate of cognitive decline in a non-demented elderly population and to estimate difference (in years) associated with lifetime intellectual enrichment to the onset of cognitive impairment. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS Prospective analysis of subjects enrolled in the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA), a longitudinal population-based study of cognitive aging in Olmsted County, Minnesota. We studied 1995 non-demented (1718 cognitively normal, 277 MCI) participants in MCSA who completed intellectual lifestyle measures at baseline and underwent at least one follow-up visit. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES We studied the effect of lifetime intellectual enrichment by separating the variables into two non-overlapping principal components: education/occupation-score and mid/late-life cognitive activity measure based on self-report questionnaires. A global cognitive Z-score served as our summary cognition measure. We used linear mixed-effects models to investigate the associations of demographic and intellectual enrichment measures with global cognitive Z-score trajectories. RESULTS Baseline cognitive performance was lower in older subjects and in those with lower education/occupation, lower mid/late-life cognitive activity, apolipoprotein E4 (APOE) genotype, and in men. The interaction between the two intellectual enrichment measures was significant such that the beneficial effect of mid/late-life cognitive activity on baseline cognitive performance was reduced with increasing education/occupation. Only baseline age, mid/late-life cognitive activity, and APOE4 genotype were significantly associated with longitudinal change in cognitive performance from baseline. For APOE4 carriers with high

  16. Lifetime income patterns and alcohol consumption: Investigating the association between long- and short-term income trajectories and drinking

    PubMed Central

    Cerdá, Magdalena; Johnson-Lawrence, Vicki; Galea, Sandro

    2011-01-01

    Lifetime patterns of income may be an important driver of alcohol use. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between long-term and short-term measures of income and the relative odds of abstaining, drinking lightly-moderately and drinking heavily. We used data from the US Panel Study on Income Dynamics (PSID), a national population-based cohort that has been followed annually or biannually since 1968. We examined 3111 adult respondents aged 30-44 in 1997. Latent class growth mixture models with a censored normal distribution were used to estimate income trajectories followed by the respondent families from 1968-1997, while repeated measures multinomial generalized logit models estimated the odds of abstinence (no drinks per day) or heavy drinking (at least 3 drinks a day), relative to light/moderate drinking (<1-2 drinks a day), in 1999-2003. Lower income was associated with higher odds of abstinence and of heavy drinking, relative to light/moderate drinking. For example, belonging to a household with stable low income ($11-20,000) over 30 years was associated with 1.57 odds of abstinence, and 2.14 odds of heavy drinking in adulthood. The association between lifetime income patterns and alcohol use decreased in magnitude and became non-significant once we controlled for past-year income, education and occupation. Lifetime income patterns may have an indirect association with alcohol use, mediated through current socioeconomic conditions. PMID:21890256

  17. Influence of age, sex and calendar year on lifetime accumulated red bone marrow dose from diagnostic radiation exposure.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Meiboom, Merle Friederike; Weitmann, Kerstin; Terschüren, Claudia; von Boetticher, Heiner

    2013-01-01

    Our aim is to evaluate the relevance of different factors influencing lifetime accumulated red bone marrow dose, such as calendar year, age and sex. The lifetime dose was estimated for controls interviewed in person (N = 2811, 37.5% women) of the population-based representative Northern Germany Leukemia and Lymphoma Study. Data were assessed in standardized computer-assisted personal interviews. The calculation of doses is based on a comprehensive quantification model including calendar year, sex, kind of examination, and technical development. In multivariate regression models the annual red bone marrow dose was analyzed depending on age, sex and calendar year to consider simultaneously temporal changes in radiologic practice and individual risk factors. While the number of examinations continuously rises over time, the dose shows two peaks around 1950 and after 1980. Men are exposed to higher doses than woman. Until 1970 traditional examinations like conventional and mass screening examinations caused the main dose. They were then replaced by technically advanced examinations mainly computed tomography and cardiac catheter. The distribution of the red bone marrow dose over lifetime depends highly on the technical standards and radiation protection survey. To a lesser extent it is influenced by age and sex of the subjects. Thus epidemiological studies concerning the assessment of radiation exposure should consider the calendar year in which the examination was conducted.

  18. Mathematical modeling of elementary trapping-reduction processes in positron annihilation lifetime spectroscopy: methodology of Ps-to-positron trapping conversion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shpotyuk, Ya; Cebulski, J.; Ingram, A.; Shpotyuk, O.

    2017-12-01

    Methodological possibilities of positron annihilation lifetime (PAL) spectroscopy in application to nanostructurized substances treated within three-term fitting procedure are reconsidered to parameterize their atomic-deficient structural arrangement. In contrast to conventional three-term fitting analysis of the detected PAL spectra based on admixed positron trapping and positronium (Ps) decaying, the nanostructurization due to guest nanoparticles embedded in host matrix is considered as producing modified trapping, which involves conversion between these channels. The developed approach referred to as x3-x2-coupling decomposition algorithm allows estimation free volumes of interfacial voids responsible for positron trapping and bulk lifetimes in nanoparticle-embedded substances. This methodology is validated using experimental data of Chakraverty et al. [Phys. Rev. B71 (2005) 024115] on PAL study of composites formed by guest NiFe2O4 nanocrystals grown in host SiO2 matrix.

  19. A population-based approach to pediculosis management.

    PubMed

    Monsen, Karen A; Keller, Linda Olson

    2002-01-01

    Pediculosis is a population-based problem that is a priority concern for many communities. Public health nurses in a county health department collaborated with epidemiologists, nursing students, and faculty to design and implement an effective population-based pediculosis management project. The focus of the project was the development of pediculosis treatment and prevention guidelines based on recognized best practices that were acceptable to both epidemiologists and practicing public health nurses. Public health nurses disseminated these guidelines to community providers and reinforced their use through consultation and educational sessions. Two critical changes occurred as a result of the project. First, community providers significantly changed their recommendations for the treatment of pediculosis after nursing intervention. Second, public health nurses increased their population-based practice skills, continued to use those skills to address pediculosis, and extended those skills to additional population-based initiatives.

  20. Projections of population-based twinning rates through the year 2100.

    PubMed

    Oleszczuk, J J; Keith, D M; Keith, L G; Rayburn, W F

    1999-11-01

    To present the first compilation of population-based twinning rates published after the year 1990 and to project population-based twinning rates through the year 2100. We searched the Internet-based MEDLINE database for articles published after 1990 in which population-based twinning rates were described. We used population-based data from national statistical authorities from Australia, Austria, Canada, Finland, Hong Kong, Israel, Japan, Norway, Singapore and Sweden, published by Y. Imaizumi in a recent article. U.S. figures were based on data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Annual growth rates of twinning were calculated and graphed, making the assumption that these rates would remain constant throughout the next century. Our report presents the most recent population-based twinning rates. When projected through the year 2015, twinning rates reach figures that could best be described as derived from a Jules Verne novel: Sweden, in this model, would have four times more twin than singleton births. We strongly suggest that physicians reexamine their patterns of prescribing ovulation-inducing agents, which carry a greatly increased risk of multiple pregnancy.

  1. Dynamical lifetimes of asteroids in retrograde orbits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kankiewicz, Paweł; Włodarczyk, Ireneusz

    2017-07-01

    The population of known minor bodies in retrograde orbits (I > 90°) that are classified as asteroids is still growing. The aim of our study was to estimate the dynamical lifetimes of these bodies using the latest observational data, including astrometry and physical properties. We selected 25 asteroids with the best-determined orbital elements. We studied their dynamical evolution in the past and future for ±100 Myr (±1 Gyr for three particular cases). We first used orbit determination and cloning to produce swarms of test particles. These swarms were then input into long-term numerical integrations, and the orbital elements were averaged. Next, we collected the available thermal properties of our objects and we used them in an enhanced dynamical model with Yarkovsky forces. We also used a gravitational model for comparison. Finally, we estimated the median lifetimes of 25 asteroids. We found three objects whose retrograde orbits were stable with a dynamical lifetime τ ˜ 10-100 Myr. A large portion of the objects studied displayed smaller values of τ (τ ˜ 1 Myr). In addition, we studied the possible influence of the Yarkovsky effect on our results. We found that the Yarkovsky effect can have a significant influence on the lifetimes of asteroids in retrograde orbits. Because of the presence of this effect, it is possible that the median lifetimes of these objects are extended. Additionally, the changes in orbital elements, caused by Yarkovsky forces, appear to depend on the integration direction. To explain this more precisely, the same model based on new physical parameters, determined from future observations, will be required.

  2. Systematic review of the prevalence of bipolar disorder and bipolar spectrum disorders in population-based studies.

    PubMed

    Dell'Aglio, José Caetano; Basso, Lissia Ana; Argimon, Irani Iracema de Lima; Arteche, Adriane

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the findings of a systematic literature review aimed at providing an overview of the lifetime prevalence of bipolar disorder and bipolar spectrum disorders in population-based studies. Databases MEDLINE, ProQuest, Psychnet, and Web of Science were browsed for papers published in English between 1999 and May 2012 using the following search string: bipolar disorders OR bipolar spectrum disorders AND prevalence OR cross-sectional OR epidemiology AND population-based OR non-clinical OR community based. The search yielded a total of 434 papers, but only those published in peer-reviewed journals and with samples aged ≥ 18 years were included, resulting in a final sample of 18 papers. Results revealed rather heterogeneous findings concerning the prevalence of bipolar disorders and bipolar spectrum disorders. Lifetime prevalence of bipolar disorder ranged from 0.1 to 7.5%, whereas lifetime prevalence of bipolar spectrum disorders ranged from 2.4 to 15.1%. Differences in the rates of bipolar disorder and bipolar spectrum disorders may be related to the consideration of subthreshold criteria upon diagnosis. Differences in the prevalence of different subtypes of the disorder are discussed in light of diagnostic criteria and instruments applied.

  3. Sexual assault in men: a population-based study of Virginia.

    PubMed

    Masho, Saba W; Anderson, Lisa

    2009-01-01

    Male sexual assault is a serious public health issue that is mostly underreported and unrecognized. A population-based study was conducted on 705 adult men in Virginia. The study found a lifetime prevalence of 12.9% among men, with 94% assaulted for the first time before the age of 18. Regression analysis showed that male victims of sexual violence were 3.4 times more likely to be depressed and 2.4 times more likely to ideate suicide. However, only 15.4% sought counseling. This study confirms that male sexual assault is a prevalent problem. It is also evident that victimized men were more likely to be depressed and ideate suicide and yet did not seek health services. Efforts should be made to reach men with a history of sexual assault.

  4. Spectral dependence of carrier lifetimes in silicon for photovoltaic applications

    PubMed Central

    Roller, John F.; Li, Yu-Tai; Dagenais, Mario; Hamadani, Behrang H.

    2017-01-01

    Charge carrier lifetimes in photovoltaic-grade silicon wafers were measured by a spectral-dependent, quasi-steady-state photoconductance technique. Narrow bandwidth light emitting diodes (LEDs) were used to excite excess charge carriers within the material, and the effective lifetimes of these carriers were measured as a function of wavelength and intensity. The dependence of the effective lifetime on the excitation wavelength was then analyzed within the context of an analytical model relating effective lifetime to the bulk lifetime and surface recombination velocity of the material. The agreement between the model and the experimental data provides validation for this technique to be used at various stages of the solar cell production line to investigate the quality of the passivation layers and the bulk properties of the material. PMID:28584383

  5. Aerosol effects on the lifetime of shallow cumulus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Hongli; Xue, Huiwen; Teller, Amit; Feingold, Graham; Levin, Zev

    2006-07-01

    We explore the effects of increases in aerosol concentration on cloud lifetime for warm convective clouds using a two-dimensional single cloud model and three-dimensional large eddy simulations (LES). The models include size-resolved treatment of drop size distributions and warm microphysical processes. It is shown using a variety of soundings representing marine trade cumulus, and continental convective clouds that contrary to expectation, an increase in aerosol concentration from very clean to very polluted does not increase cloud lifetime, even though precipitation is suppressed. Cloud lifetimes are statistically similar although individual clouds may experience decreases in lifetime of 10-40%. An evaporation-entrainment feedback that tends to dilute polluted clouds more than clean clouds is identified. It is proposed that the small changes in cloud lifetime are due to competing effects of precipitation suppression and enhanced evaporation, with the latter tending to dominate in these shallow clouds.

  6. Induced abortion, pregnancy loss and intimate partner violence in Tanzania: a population based study.

    PubMed

    Stöckl, Heidi; Filippi, Veronique; Watts, Charlotte; Mbwambo, Jessie K K

    2012-03-05

    Violence by an intimate partner is increasingly recognized as an important public and reproductive health issue. The aim of this study is to investigate the extent to which physical and/or sexual intimate partner violence is associated with induced abortion and pregnancy loss from other causes and to compare this with other, more commonly recognized explanatory factors. This study analyzes the data of the Tanzania section of the WHO Multi-Country Study on Women's Health and Domestic Violence, a large population-based cross-sectional survey of women of reproductive age in Dar es Salaam and Mbeya, Tanzania, conducted from 2001 to 2002. All women who answered positively to at least one of the questions about specific acts of physical or sexual violence committed by a partner towards her at any point in her life were considered to have experienced intimate partner violence. Associations between self reported induced abortion and pregnancy loss with intimate partner violence were analysed using multiple regression models. Lifetime physical and/or sexual intimate partner violence was reported by 41% and 56% of ever partnered, ever pregnant women in Dar es Salaam and Mbeya respectively. Among the ever pregnant, ever partnered women, 23% experienced involuntary pregnancy loss, while 7% reported induced abortion. Even after adjusting for other explanatory factors, women who experienced intimate partner violence were 1.6 (95%CI: 1.06,1.60) times more likely to report an pregnancy loss and 1.9 (95%CI: 1.30,2.89) times more likely to report an induced abortion. Intimate partner violence had a stronger influence on induced abortion and pregnancy loss than women's age, socio-economic status, and number of live born children. Intimate partner violence is likely to be an important influence on levels of induced abortion and pregnancy loss in Tanzania. Preventing intimate partner violence may therefore be beneficial for maternal health and pregnancy outcomes. © 2012 Stöckl et al

  7. Clinical and social outcomes of adolescent self harm: population based birth cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Heron, Jon; Crane, Catherine; Hawton, Keith; Lewis, Glyn; Macleod, John; Tilling, Kate; Gunnell, David

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To investigate the mental health, substance use, educational, and occupational outcomes of adolescents who self harm in a general population sample, and to examine whether these outcomes differ according to self reported suicidal intent. Design Population based birth cohort study. Setting Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a UK birth cohort of children born in 1991-92. Participants Data on lifetime history of self harm with and without suicidal intent were available for 4799 respondents who completed a detailed self harm questionnaire at age 16 years. Multiple imputation was used to account for missing data. Main outcome measures Mental health problems (depression and anxiety disorder), assessed using the clinical interview schedule-revised at age 18 years, self reported substance use (alcohol, cannabis, cigarette smoking, and illicit drugs) at age 18 years, educational attainment at age 16 and 19 years, occupational outcomes at age 19 years, and self harm at age 21 years. Results Participants who self harmed with and without suicidal intent at age 16 years were at increased risk of developing mental health problems, future self harm, and problem substance misuse, with stronger associations for suicidal self harm than for non-suicidal self harm. For example, in models adjusted for confounders the odds ratio for depression at age 18 years was 2.21 (95% confidence interval 1.55 to 3.15) in participants who had self harmed without suicidal intent at age 16 years and 3.94 (2.67 to 5.83) in those who had self harmed with suicidal intent. Suicidal self harm, but not self harm without suicidal intent, was also associated with poorer educational and employment outcomes. Conclusions Adolescents who self harm seem to be vulnerable to a range of adverse outcomes in early adulthood. Risks were generally stronger in those who had self harmed with suicidal intent, but outcomes were also poor among those who had self harmed without suicidal

  8. Energy Savings Lifetimes and Persistence

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffman, Ian M.; Schiller, Steven R.; Todd, Annika

    2016-02-01

    This technical brief explains the concepts of energy savings lifetimes and savings persistence and discusses how program administrators use these factors to calculate savings for efficiency measures, programs and portfolios. Savings lifetime is the length of time that one or more energy efficiency measures or activities save energy, and savings persistence is the change in savings throughout the functional life of a given efficiency measure or activity. Savings lifetimes are essential for assessing the lifecycle benefits and cost effectiveness of efficiency activities and for forecasting loads in resource planning. The brief also provides estimates of savings lifetimes derived from amore » national collection of costs and savings for electric efficiency programs and portfolios.« less

  9. Measurement of the tau lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Jaros, J.A.

    1982-10-01

    If the tau lepton couples to the charged weak current with universal strength, its lifetime can be expressed in terms of the muon's lifetime, the ratio of the masses of the muon and the tau, and the tau's branching ratio into e anti nu/sub e/ nu/sub tau/ as tau/sub tau/ = tau/sub ..mu../ (m/sub ..mu..//m/sub tau/)/sup 5/ B(tau ..-->.. e anti nu/sub e/nu/sub tau/) = 2.8 +- 0.2 x 10/sup -13/ s. This paper describes the measurement of the tau lifetime made by the Mark II collaboration, using a new high precision drift chamber in contunction with the Mark IImore » detector at PEP. The results of other tau lifetime measurements are summarized.« less

  10. Association of occupational activity with radiographic knee osteoarthritis and lumbar spondylosis in elderly patients of population-based cohorts: a large-scale population-based study.

    PubMed

    Muraki, Shigeyuki; Akune, Toru; Oka, Hiroyuki; Mabuchi, Akihiko; En-Yo, Yoshio; Yoshida, Munehito; Saika, Akihiko; Nakamura, Kozo; Kawaguchi, Hiroshi; Yoshimura, Noriko

    2009-06-15

    To investigate the risk of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) and lumbar spondylosis associated with occupational activity in elderly Japanese subjects using the large-scale population-based cohort of the Research on Osteoarthritis Against Disability (ROAD) study. From the baseline survey of the ROAD study, 1,471 participants age > or =50 years (531 men and 940 women) living in mountainous and seacoast communities were analyzed. Information collected included a lifetime occupational history and details of specific work place physical activities. Radiographic severity at the knee and lumbar spine was determined by the Kellgren/Lawrence (K/L) grading system. The prevalence of K/L grade > or =2 knee OA and lumbar spondylosis among agricultural, forestry, and fishery workers was significantly higher than among clerical workers and technical experts in the overall population. For occupational activities, sitting on a chair had a significant inverse association with K/L grade > or =2 knee OA and lumbar spondylosis. Standing, walking, climbing, and heavy lifting were associated with K/L grade > or =2 knee OA, but were not associated with K/L grade > or =2 lumbar spondylosis. Kneeling and squatting were associated with K/L grade > or =3 knee OA. This cross-sectional study using a population-based cohort suggests that sitting on a chair is a significant protective factor against both radiographic knee OA and lumbar spondylosis in Japanese subjects. An occupational activity that includes heavy lifting appears to have a greater effect on knee OA than on lumbar spondylosis.

  11. Guiding Principles and Checklist for Population-Based Quality Metrics

    PubMed Central

    Brunelli, Steven M.; Maddux, Franklin W.; Parker, Thomas F.; Johnson, Douglas; Nissenson, Allen R.; Collins, Allan; Lacson, Eduardo

    2014-01-01

    The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services oversees the ESRD Quality Incentive Program to ensure that the highest quality of health care is provided by outpatient dialysis facilities that treat patients with ESRD. To that end, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services uses clinical performance measures to evaluate quality of care under a pay-for-performance or value-based purchasing model. Now more than ever, the ESRD therapeutic area serves as the vanguard of health care delivery. By translating medical evidence into clinical performance measures, the ESRD Prospective Payment System became the first disease-specific sector using the pay-for-performance model. A major challenge for the creation and implementation of clinical performance measures is the adjustments that are necessary to transition from taking care of individual patients to managing the care of patient populations. The National Quality Forum and others have developed effective and appropriate population-based clinical performance measures quality metrics that can be aggregated at the physician, hospital, dialysis facility, nursing home, or surgery center level. Clinical performance measures considered for endorsement by the National Quality Forum are evaluated using five key criteria: evidence, performance gap, and priority (impact); reliability; validity; feasibility; and usability and use. We have developed a checklist of special considerations for clinical performance measure development according to these National Quality Forum criteria. Although the checklist is focused on ESRD, it could also have broad application to chronic disease states, where health care delivery organizations seek to enhance quality, safety, and efficiency of their services. Clinical performance measures are likely to become the norm for tracking performance for health care insurers. Thus, it is critical that the methodologies used to develop such metrics serve the payer and the provider and most importantly, reflect

  12. Prevalence of mood and anxiety disorder in self reported irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). An epidemiological population based study of women.

    PubMed

    Mykletun, Arnstein; Jacka, Felice; Williams, Lana; Pasco, Julie; Henry, Margaret; Nicholson, Geoffrey C; Kotowicz, Mark A; Berk, Michael

    2010-08-05

    Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is commonly regarded as a functional disorder, and is hypothesized to be associated with anxiety and depression. This evidence mainly rests on population-based studies utilising self-report screening instruments for psychopathology. Other studies applying structured clinical interviews are generally based on small clinical samples, which are vulnerable to biases. The extant evidence base for an association between IBS and psychopathology is hence not conclusive. The aim of this study was therefore to re-examine the hypothesis using population-based data and psychiatric morbidity established with a structured clinical interview. Data were derived from a population-based epidemiological study (n = 1077). Anxiety and mood disorders were established using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR (SCID-I/NP) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). Current and lifetime IBS was self-reported. Hypertension and diabetes were employed as comparison groups as they are expected to be unrelated to mental health. Current IBS (n = 69, 6.4%) was associated with an increased likelihood of current mood and/or anxiety disorders (OR = 2.62, 95%CI 1.49 - 4.60). Half the population reporting a lifetime IBS diagnosis also had a lifetime mood or anxiety disorder. Exploratory analyses demonstrated an increased prevalence of IBS across most common anxiety and mood disorders, the exception being bipolar disorder. The association with IBS and symptoms load (GHQ-12) followed a curved dose response pattern. In contrast, hypertension and diabetes were consistently unrelated to psychiatric morbidity. IBS is significantly associated with anxiety and mood disorders. This study provides indicative evidence for IBS as a disorder with a psychosomatic aspect.

  13. Measurement of Adults’ Sedentary Time in Population-Based Studies

    PubMed Central

    Healy, Genevieve N.; Clark, Bronwyn K.; Winkler, Elisabeth A.H.; Gardiner, Paul A.; Brown, Wendy J.; Matthews, Charles E.

    2011-01-01

    Sedentary time (too much sitting) is increasingly being recognized as a distinct health risk behavior. This paper reviews the reliability and validity of self-reported and device-based sedentary time measures and provides recommendations for their use in population-based studies. The focus is on instruments that have been used in free-living, population-based research in adults. Data from the 2003–2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey are utilized to compare the descriptive epidemiology of sedentary time that arises from the use of different sedentary time measures. A key recommendation from this review is that, wherever possible, population-based monitoring of sedentary time should incorporate both self-reported measures (to capture important domain- and behavior-specific sedentary time information) and device-based measures (to measure both total sedentary time and patterns of sedentary time accumulation). PMID:21767730

  14. Correlates of Weight Instability across the Lifespan in a Population-Based Sample

    PubMed Central

    Serdar, Kasey L.; Mazzeo, Suzanne E.; Mitchell, Karen S.; Aggen, Steven H.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Bulik, Cynthia M.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Research from overweight/obese clinical samples links weight instability to poor health. This study investigated whether negative health outcomes were associated with weight instability in a population-based sample. Method One thousand five hundred ten women and 1,111 men from the Mid-Atlantic Twin Registry completed questionnaires assessing demographics, body size in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, health satisfaction, and disordered eating. Noneating disorder psychiatric diagnoses were assessed via clinical interviews. Results Weight instability was related to lower health satisfaction and self-esteem, and higher body dissatisfaction, dieting, and binge eating for both sexes. Weight unstable women were more likely to meet criteria for lifetime major depressive disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, and eating disorders. Weight stable women were more likely to abuse alcohol; however, two of these associations [e.g. weight instability and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and weight stability and alcohol abuse] became non-significant once lifetime binge eating was accounted for, indicating that these forms of psychopathology are more strongly related to binge eating than weight instability itself. No associations between weight stability and psychiatric diagnoses were found in men. Discussion Weight instability is related to mental and physical health concerns for both sexes. It was also specifically associated with depression and eating pathology in women. PMID:20957706

  15. Major depression and dimensional representations of DSM-IV personality disorders: a population-based twin study.

    PubMed

    Reichborn-Kjennerud, T; Czajkowski, N; Røysamb, E; Ørstavik, R E; Neale, M C; Torgersen, S; Kendler, K S

    2010-09-01

    Major depressive disorder (MDD) co-occurs frequently with personality disorders (PDs). The extent to which this results from shared genetic or environmental risk factors remains uncertain. Young adult twins (n=2801) from the population-based Norwegian Institute of Public Health Twin Panel were assessed at personal interview for DSM-IV lifetime MDD and the 10 Axis II PDs. The relationship between MDD and dimensional representations of all PDs was explored by stepwise logistic regression. Multivariate Cholesky twin models were fitted using the Mx program, and genetic and environmental correlations were estimated. Dimensional representations of borderline (BPD), avoidant (AVPD) and paranoid personality disorder (PPD) were independently and significantly associated with increased risk for MDD. Multivariate twin modeling indicated that one latent factor accounted for the genetic covariance between MDD and the three PDs. The genetic correlations between MDD and dimensional representations of BPD, AVPD and PPD were +0.56, +0.22 and +0.40 respectively. No sex differences or shared environmental effects were found. The structure of the individual-specific environmental factors influencing MDD and the three PDs were similar to the genetic factors but the environmental correlations were lower: +0.39, +0.23 and +0.27 respectively. There is substantial overlap between liability factors for MDD and BPD from cluster B, PPD from cluster A and AVPD from cluster C. The vulnerability to general PD pathology and MDD seem to be closely related. The patterns of co-morbidity observed between diverse psychiatric disorders might result from just a few liability factors.

  16. Major depression and dimensional representations of DSM-IV personality disorders: a population-based twin study

    PubMed Central

    Reichborn-Kjennerud, T.; Czajkowski, N.; Røysamb, E.; Ørstavik, R. E.; Neale, M. C.; Torgersen, S.; Kendler, K. S.

    2010-01-01

    Background Major depressive disorder (MDD) co-occurs frequently with personality disorders (PDs). The extent to which this results from shared genetic or environmental risk factors remains uncertain. Method Young adult twins (n=2801) from the population-based Norwegian Institute of Public Health Twin Panel were assessed at personal interview for DSM-IV lifetime MDD and the 10 Axis II PDs. The relationship between MDD and dimensional representations of all PDs was explored by stepwise logistic regression. Multivariate Cholesky twin models were fitted using the Mx program, and genetic and environmental correlations were estimated. Results Dimensional representations of borderline (BPD), avoidant (AVPD) and paranoid personality disorder (PPD) were independently and significantly associated with increased risk for MDD. Multivariate twin modeling indicated that one latent factor accounted for the genetic covariance between MDD and the three PDs. The genetic correlations between MDD and dimensional representations of BPD, AVPD and PPD were +0.56, +0.22 and +0.40 respectively. No sex differences or shared environmental effects were found. The structure of the individual-specific environmental factors influencing MDD and the three PDs were similar to the genetic factors but the environmental correlations were lower: +0.39, +0.23 and +0.27 respectively. Conclusions There is substantial overlap between liability factors for MDD and BPD from cluster B, PPD from cluster A and AVPD from cluster C. The vulnerability to general PD pathology and MDD seem to be closely related. The patterns of co-morbidity observed between diverse psychiatric disorders might result from just a few liability factors. PMID:19917148

  17. Dependence of the charge exchange lifetimes on mirror latitude

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, P. H.; Bewtra, N. K.

    1976-01-01

    The dependence of the charge exchange lifetimes on the mirror latitude for ions mirroring off the geomagnetic equator has been re-computed using improved hydrogen distribution models. The Chamberlain model, with the input parameters determined by recent satellite observations, has been used to define the spatial distribution of the neutral hydrogen environment through which the ring current ions traverse. The resultant dependence of the charge exchange lifetime, tau, on mirror latitude, lambda-m, is best fit by the approximation tau-m = tau-e cos 3.5 lambda-m, where tau-e is the charge exchange lifetime for the equatorial particles.

  18. The association between adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and suicide attempts in a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Fuller-Thomson, E; Baird, S L; Dhrodia, R; Brennenstuhl, S

    2016-09-01

    To further our understanding of the relationship between Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) and suicidal behaviour, this study investigates the association between three types of ACEs and lifetime suicide attempts, while considering potential gender-specific and mediating effects. Data were obtained from the 2012 Canadian Community Health Survey-Mental Health (CCHS-MH), a cross-sectional, population-based survey comprised of respondents aged 18 or older who provided self-reported data on past experiences of suicide attempts, as well as childhood sexual abuse (CSA), childhood physical abuse (CPA) and parental domestic violence (PDV) (n = 22 559). After testing for ACE by gender interactions, we estimated the odds of lifetime suicide attempts for each ACE and then investigated whether depression, anxiety, substance abuse and chronic pain acted as mediators of the relationship. The odds of suicide attempts are significantly higher among those with a history of CPA (OR = 3.29; 99.9% CI 2.33-4.64), CSA (OR = 4.42; 99.9% CI 3.14-6.23) or PDV (OR = 2.52; 99.9% CI 1.69-3.76), when ACEs are mutually adjusted. There is little evidence that gender acts as a moderator; however, depression, anxiety, substance abuse and chronic pain appear to partially mediate the associations. Depression alone accounts for about a quarter of the associations with CSA and CPA. Mental health factors and chronic pain appear only to partially mediate relationships between ACEs and lifetime suicide attempts. Future research should look at other pathways with the goal of developing multi-level interventions. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. Risk and protective profile of tobacco and alcohol use among Iranian adolescents: a population- based study.

    PubMed

    Baheiraei, Azam; Soltani, Farzaneh; Ebadi, Abbas; Foroushani, Abbas Rahimi; Cheraghi, Mohammad Ali

    2016-03-16

    Identification of risk and protective factors is of great importance in designing preventive and interventional programs. The aim of the present study has been to investigate peer/individual, family, school, and community risk and protective factors as predictors of tobacco and alcohol use among Iranian adolescents. In a cross-sectional population-based study, 870 Iranian adolescents aged 15-18 years old, filled out the adopted form of "Communities That Care Youth Survey". Thirty-two risk and protective factors were entered in adjusted logistic regression analyses to predict the lifetime cigarette and alcohol use. Sixteen risk and seven protective factors predicted both lifetime cigarette and alcohol use in the bivariate logistic regression analysis. In the multivariate logistic regression analysis 12 risk factors including friends' use of drugs, interaction with antisocial peers, sensation seeking, intention to use, perceived risks of drug use, family history of drug use, poor family management, parental attitudes favorable toward drug use, family conflict, academic failure, school low commitment, perceived availability of drugs predicted both lifetime cigarette and alcohol use as well as four protective factors including religiosity, self-esteem, family rewards for prosocial involvement, and school rewards for prosocial involvement. The highest OR were related to the risk factor of "Rewards for antisocial involvement" [3.9(1.5-10)], and protective factor of "Religiosity" [0.1(0.1-0.3)]. The present study has produced evidences about risk and protective factors related to adolescents substance use and can help designing and implementing of preventive interventions for maintaining and promoting adolescents health.

  20. Young adults' trajectories of Ecstasy use: a population based study.

    PubMed

    Smirnov, Andrew; Najman, Jake M; Hayatbakhsh, Reza; Plotnikova, Maria; Wells, Helene; Legosz, Margot; Kemp, Robert

    2013-11-01

    Young adults' Ecstasy use trajectories have important implications for individual and population-level consequences of Ecstasy use, but little relevant research has been conducted. This study prospectively examines Ecstasy trajectories in a population-based sample. Data are from the Natural History Study of Drug Use, a retrospective/prospective cohort study conducted in Australia. Population screening identified a probability sample of Ecstasy users aged 19-23 years. Complete data for 30 months of follow-up, comprising 4 time intervals, were available for 297 participants (88.4% of sample). Trajectories were derived using cluster analysis based on recent Ecstasy use at each interval. Trajectory predictors were examined using a generalized ordered logit model and included Ecstasy dependence (World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Instrument), psychological distress (Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale), aggression (Young Adult Self Report) and contextual factors (e.g. attendance at electronic/dance music events). Three Ecstasy trajectories were identified (low, intermediate and high use). At its peak, the high-use trajectory involved 1-2 days Ecstasy use per week. Decreasing frequency of use was observed for intermediate and high-use trajectories from 12 months, independently of market factors. Intermediate and high-use trajectory membership was predicted by past Ecstasy consumption (>70 pills) and attendance at electronic/dance music events. High-use trajectory members were unlikely to have used Ecstasy for more than 3 years and tended to report consistently positive subjective effects at baseline. Given the social context and temporal course of Ecstasy use, Ecstasy trajectories might be better understood in terms of instrumental rather than addictive drug use patterns. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Pterygium in Tibetans: a population-based study in China.

    PubMed

    Lu, Peng; Chen, Xiaoming; Kang, Ying; Ke, Lang; Wei, Xiaoyan; Zhang, Wenfang

    2007-12-01

    To describe the prevalence and to identify associated risk factors for pterygium in a Tibetan population at high altitude in Zeku County, China. A prospective population-based survey was conducted from October to December 2006. A stratified, clustered, randomized sampling procedure was used to select 2632 Tibetan people aged 40 years and older. Pterygium was diagnosed and graded clinically as grade 1 (transparent), 2 (intermediate) and 3 (opaque). Risks factors associated with pterygium were evaluated with logistic regression models. From a total of 2632 eligible subjects, 2229 (84.69%) were examined. There were 323 people with pterygium, equivalent to an overall prevalence of 14.49% (95% confidence interval [CI] 13.03-15.95). Pterygium was independently associated with increasing age for persons aged 70-79 years, compared with those aged 40-49 years (odds ratio [OR] 2.0; 95% CI 1.4-2.8), female gender (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.2-2.0), dry eye symptoms (OR 1.3; 95% CI 1.0-1.7), seldom use of sunglasses/crystal spectacles (OR 4.6; 95% CI 1.9-11.3) or hats (OR 3.6: 95% CI 2.4-5.4), lower education level (<3 years) (OR 1.6; 95% CI 1.1-2.4) and low socioeconomic status (OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.5-2.4). The prevalence of pterygium in a Tibetan population at high altitude is significantly high, particularly in certain at-risk groups. The primary causative factors are related to ocular sun exposure, which are easily preventable. Public health schemes to address this serious health issue are urgently needed.

  2. Antidopaminergic drugs and acute pancreatitis: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Bodén, Robert; Bexelius, Tomas S; Mattsson, Fredrik; Lagergren, Jesper; Lindblad, Mats; Ljung, Rickard

    2012-01-01

    To evaluate the suggested association between antidopaminergic drugs and acute pancreatitis. A large population-based nested case-control study. Swedish nationwide study from 2006 to 2008. The Patient Register was used to identify 6161 cases of acute pancreatitis. The 61 637 control subjects were randomly selected from the Register of the Total Population by frequency-based density sampling, matched for age, sex and calendar year. Exposure data were extracted from the Prescribed Drug Register. Antidopaminergic drugs were grouped into antiemetic/anxiolytic and other antipsychotics. Current use of antidopaminergic drugs was defined as filling a prescription 1-114 days before index date, while previous use was 115 days to 3.5 years before index date. Cases were defined as being diagnosed as having acute pancreatitis. ORs and 95% CIs were calculated using unconditional logistic regression. The unadjusted OR indicated an increased risk of acute pancreatitis among current users of antiemetic/anxiolytics (OR 1.9, 95% CI 1.4 to 2.6), but not in the multivariable model adjusting for alcohol-related comorbidity, chronic obstructive lung disease, ischaemic heart disease, obesity, diabetes, opioid use, gallstone disease, educational level, marital status and number of concomitant medications (OR 0.9, 95% CI 0.6 to 1.2). Similarly, among current users of other antipsychotics, the unadjusted OR was 1.4 (95% CI 1.1 to 1.6), while the adjusted OR was 0.8 (95% CI 0.6 to 0.9). Results regarding previous use of antidopaminergic drugs followed a similar risk pattern as for current use. The lack of association between antidopaminergic drugs and acute pancreatitis after adjustment for confounding factors in this study suggests that the previously reported positive associations might be explained by confounding.

  3. ADOLESCENT DRINKING ONSET AND ITS ADULT CONSEQUENCES AMONG MEN: A POPULATION BASED STUDY FROM INDIA

    PubMed Central

    Pillai, Aravind; Nayak, Madhabika B.; Greenfield, Thomas K.; Bond, Jason C.; Hasin, Deborah S.; Patel, Vikram

    2014-01-01

    Background Few population-based studies from low and middle-income countries have addressed adolescent drinking onset and its association with adult alcohol-related adverse outcomes. The aims of this study were to: (1) estimate the rate of adolescent drinking onset and its trend over time among men (2) describe demographic and socioeconomic factors associated with adolescent drinking onset; and (3) examine the association between adolescent drinking onset and adverse outcomes in later life, including hazardous or harmful alcohol use, heavy episodic drinking, alcohol dependence, injuries, and psychological distress. Methods Population based survey of men (n=1899) from rural and urban communities in northern Goa, India. Analysis addressed age of drinking onset among those who reported ever drinking in their lifetime, and drinking patterns and consequences among current drinkers. Results Adolescent drinking onset showed an increasing trend over time (p<0.001), from 19.5% for those born between 1956 and 1960 to 74.3% for those born between 1981 and 1985. Urban residence, Christian religion and low standard of living were associated with adolescent drinking onset. Adolescent drinking onset was associated with psychological distress (OR 2.82; 95% CI 1.41–5.63), alcohol dependence (OR 2.56; 95% CI 1.79–3.68), lifetime history of alcohol related injuries (OR 3.07; 95% CI 1.16–8.14), alcohol related injuries during the past year (OR 3.04; 95% CI 1.35–6.81), and a Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) score ≥ 8 indicating hazardous or harmful alcohol use (OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.17–3.08) in adulthood. Conclusions This study among men in Goa, India suggests a substantial increase in adolescent drinking onset in more recent birth cohorts. Consistent with other countries, adolescent drinking onset increased the likelihood of lifetime alcohol dependence, hazardous or harmful alcohol use, alcohol related injuries, and psychological distress. These findings

  4. Automated analysis of multimodal fluorescence lifetime imaging and optical coherence tomography data for the diagnosis of oral cancer in the hamster cheek pouch model

    PubMed Central

    Pande, Paritosh; Shrestha, Sebina; Park, Jesung; Gimenez-Conti, Irma; Brandon, Jimi; Applegate, Brian E.; Jo, Javier A.

    2016-01-01

    It is known that the progression of oral cancer is accompanied by changes in both tissue biochemistry and morphology. A multimodal imaging approach combining functional and structural imaging modalities could therefore provide a more comprehensive prognosis of oral cancer. This idea forms the central theme of the current study, wherein this premise is examined in the context of a multimodal imaging system that combines fluorescence lifetime imaging (FLIM) and optical coherence tomography (OCT). Towards this end, in the first part of the present study, the diagnostic advantage obtained by using both fluorescence intensity and lifetime information is assessed. In the second part of the study, the diagnostic potential of FLIM-derived biochemical features is compared with that of OCT-derived morphological features. For an objective assessment, several quantitative biochemical and morphological features from FLIM and OCT data, respectively, were obtained using signal and image processing techniques. These features were subsequently used in a statistical classification framework to quantify the diagnostic potential of different features. The classification accuracy for combined FLIM and OCT features was estimated to be 87.4%, which was statistically higher than accuracy based on only FLIM (83.2%) or OCT (81.0%) features. Moreover, the complimentary information provided by FLIM and OCT features, resulted in highest sensitivity and specificity for the combined FLIM and OCT features for discriminating benign (88.2% sens., 92.0% spec.), pre-cancerous (81.5% sens., 96.0% spec.), and cancerous (90.1% sens., 92.0% spec.) classes. PMID:27231638

  5. Vibrational lifetimes of hydrated phospholipids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jadidi, Tayebeh; Anvari, Mehrnaz; Mashaghi, Alireza; Sahimi, Muhammad; Rahimi Tabar, M. Reza

    2013-04-01

    Large-scale ab initio molecular-dynamics simulations have been carried out to compute, at human-body temperature, the vibrational modes and lifetimes of pure and hydrated dipalmitoylphosphatidylcholine (DPPC) lipids. The projected atomic vibrations calculated from the spectral energy density are used to compute the vibrational modes and the lifetimes. All the normal modes of the pure and hydrated DPPC and their frequencies are identified. The computed lifetimes incorporate the full anharmonicity of the atomic interactions. The vibrational modes of the water molecules close to the head group of DPPC are active (possess large projected spectrum amplitudes) in the frequency range 0.5-55 THz, with a peak at 2.80 THz in the energy spectrum. The computed lifetimes for the high-frequency modes agree well with the recent data measured at room temperature where high-order phonon scattering is not negligible. The computed lifetimes of the low-frequency modes can be tested using the current experimental capabilities. Moreover, the approach may be applied to other lipids and biomolecules, in order to predict their vibrational dispersion relations, and to study the dynamics of vibrational energy transfer.

  6. Direct tests of muscle cross-bridge theories: predictions of a Brownian dumbbell model for position-dependent cross-bridge lifetimes and step sizes with an optically trapped actin filament.

    PubMed Central

    Smith, D A

    1998-01-01

    Force and displacement events from a single myosin molecule interacting with an actin filament suspended between optically trapped beads (Finer, J. T., R. M. Simmons, and J. A. Spudich. 1994. Nature. 368:113-119) can be interpreted in terms of a generalized cross-bridge model that includes the effects of Brownian forces on the beads. Steady-state distributions of force and displacement can be obtained directly from a generalized Smoluchowski equation for Brownian motion of the actin-bead "dumbbell," and time series from Monte Carlo simulations of the corresponding Langevin equation. When the frequency spectrum of Brownian motion extends beyond cross-bridge transition rates, the inverse mean lifetimes of force/displacement pulses are given by cross-bridge rate constants averaged over a Boltzmann distribution of Brownian noise. These averaged rate constants reflect the strain-dependence of the rate constants for the stationary filament, most faithfully at high trap stiffness. Hence, measurements of the lifetimes and displacements of single events as a function of the resting position of the dumbbell can provide a direct test of different cross-bridge theories of muscle contraction. Quantitative demonstrations are given for Huxley models with 1) faster binding or 2) slower dissociation at positive cross-bridge strain. Predictions for other models can be inferred from the averaging procedure. PMID:9826619

  7. Big Data for Population-Based Cancer Research

    PubMed Central

    Meyer, Anne-Marie; Olshan, Andrew F.; Green, Laura; Meyer, Adrian; Wheeler, Stephanie B.; Basch, Ethan; Carpenter, William R.

    2016-01-01

    The Integrated Cancer Information and Surveillance System (ICISS) facilitates population-based cancer research by developing extensive information technology systems that can link and manage large data sets. Taking an interdisciplinary “team science” approach, ICISS has developed data, systems, and methods that allow researchers to better leverage the power of big data to improve population health. PMID:25046092

  8. Quantile based Tsallis entropy in residual lifetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khammar, A. H.; Jahanshahi, S. M. A.

    2018-02-01

    Tsallis entropy is a generalization of type α of the Shannon entropy, that is a nonadditive entropy unlike the Shannon entropy. Shannon entropy may be negative for some distributions, but Tsallis entropy can always be made nonnegative by choosing appropriate value of α. In this paper, we derive the quantile form of this nonadditive's entropy function in the residual lifetime, namely the residual quantile Tsallis entropy (RQTE) and get the bounds for it, depending on the Renyi's residual quantile entropy. Also, we obtain relationship between RQTE and concept of proportional hazards model in the quantile setup. Based on the new measure, we propose a stochastic order and aging classes, and study its properties. Finally, we prove characterizations theorems for some well known lifetime distributions. It is shown that RQTE uniquely determines the parent distribution unlike the residual Tsallis entropy.

  9. The evaluation of a population based diffusion tensor image atlas using a ground truth method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Van Hecke, Wim; Leemans, Alexander; D'Agostino, Emiliano; De Backer, Steve; Vandervliet, Evert; Parizel, Paul M.; Sijbers, Jan

    2008-03-01

    Purpose: Voxel based morphometry (VBM) is increasingly being used to detect diffusion tensor (DT) image abnormalities in patients for different pathologies. An important requisite for these VBM studies is the use of a high-dimensional, non-rigid coregistration technique, which is able to align both the spatial and the orientational information. Recent studies furthermore indicate that high-dimensional DT information should be included during coregistration for an optimal alignment. In this context, a population based DTI atlas is created that preserves the orientational DT information robustly and contains a minimal bias towards any specific individual data set. Methods: A ground truth evaluation method is developed using a single subject DT image that is deformed with 20 deformation fields. Thereafter, an atlas is constructed based on these 20 resulting images. Thereby, the non-rigid coregistration algorithm is based on a viscous fluid model and on mutual information. The fractional anisotropy (FA) maps as well as the DT elements are used as DT image information during the coregistration algorithm, in order to minimize the orientational alignment inaccuracies. Results: The population based DT atlas is compared with the ground truth image using accuracy and precision measures of spatial and orientational dependent metrics. Results indicate that the population based atlas preserves the orientational information in a robust way. Conclusion: A subject independent population based DT atlas is constructed and evaluated with a ground truth method. This atlas contains all available orientational information and can be used in future VBM studies as a reference system.

  10. Lifetime Risk of Stress Incontinence or Pelvic Organ Prolapse Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Jennifer M.; Matthews, Catherine A.; Conover, Mitchell M.; Pate, Virginia; Funk, Michele Jonsson

    2014-01-01

    Objective To estimate the lifetime risk of stress incontinence, pelvic organ prolapse surgery, or both using current, population-based surgical rates from 2007–2011. Methods We used a 2007–2011 a U.S. claims and encounters database. We included women aged 18–89 years and estimated age-specific incidence rates and cumulative incidence (lifetime risk) of stress incontinence surgery, pelvic organ prolapse surgery, and either incontinence or prolapse surgery, with 95% confidence intervals. We estimated lifetime risk until the age of 80 to be consistent with prior studies. Results From 2007–2011, we evaluated 10,177,480 adult women who were followed for 24,979,447 person-years. Among these women, we identified 65,397 incident, or first, stress incontinence, and 57,755 incident prolapse surgeries. Overall, we found that the lifetime risk of any primary surgery for stress incontinence or pelvic organ prolapse was 20.0% (95%CI 19.9, 20.2) by the age of 80 years. Separately, the cumulative risk for stress incontinence surgery was 13.6% (95%CI 13.5, 13.7) and that for pelvic organ prolapse surgery was 12.6% (95%CI 12.4, 12.7). For age-specific annual risk, stress incontinence demonstrated a bimodal peak at age 46 and then again at age 70–71 with annual risks of 3.8 and 3.9 per 1,000 women, respectively. For pelvic organ prolapse, the risk increased progressively until ages 71 and 73 when the annual risk was 4.3 per 1,000 women. Conclusion Based on a U.S. claims and encounters database, the estimated lifetime risk of surgery for either stress incontinence or pelvic organ prolapse in women is 20.0% by the age of 80. PMID:24807341

  11. Predicting Lifetimes Of CMOS ASIC's From Test Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buehler, Martin G.; Zamani, Nasser; Zoutendyk, John A.

    1993-01-01

    Concise report discusses recent developments in use of semiempirical mathematical models to predict rates of failure and operating lifetimes of complementary metal oxide/semiconductor (CMOS) application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC's). Each model represents specific mechanism of failure. Once failure mechanisms and models relevant to given ASIC chosen, adjustable parameters in models fitted to life-test data acquired from representative integrated-circuit structures on test coupons fabricated along with ASIC's. Then design parameters of ASIC's incorporated into models, and models yield lifetimes.

  12. Habitable zone lifetimes of exoplanets around main sequence stars.

    PubMed

    Rushby, Andrew J; Claire, Mark W; Osborn, Hugh; Watson, Andrew J

    2013-09-01

    The potential habitability of newly discovered exoplanets is initially assessed by determining whether their orbits fall within the circumstellar habitable zone of their star. However, the habitable zone (HZ) is not static in time or space, and its boundaries migrate outward at a rate proportional to the increase in luminosity of a star undergoing stellar evolution, possibly including or excluding planets over the course of the star's main sequence lifetime. We describe the time that a planet spends within the HZ as its "habitable zone lifetime." The HZ lifetime of a planet has strong astrobiological implications and is especially important when considering the evolution of complex life, which is likely to require a longer residence time within the HZ. Here, we present results from a simple model built to investigate the evolution of the "classic" HZ over time, while also providing estimates for the evolution of stellar luminosity over time in order to develop a "hybrid" HZ model. These models return estimates for the HZ lifetimes of Earth and 7 confirmed HZ exoplanets and 27 unconfirmed Kepler candidates. The HZ lifetime for Earth ranges between 6.29 and 7.79×10⁹ years (Gyr). The 7 exoplanets fall in a range between ∼1 and 54.72 Gyr, while the 27 Kepler candidate planets' HZ lifetimes range between 0.43 and 18.8 Gyr. Our results show that exoplanet HD 85512b is no longer within the HZ, assuming it has an Earth analog atmosphere. The HZ lifetime should be considered in future models of planetary habitability as setting an upper limit on the lifetime of any potential exoplanetary biosphere, and also for identifying planets of high astrobiological potential for continued observational or modeling campaigns.

  13. Encouraging the Lifetime Reading Habit.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sanacore, Joseph

    Educators must accept the challenge of encouraging the lifetime reading habit in school. Students who are surrounded with books, newspapers, magazines, and other materials will be tempted to browse and to read from these sources. When selecting materials for the classroom, educators should work closely with the library media specialist who is…

  14. Cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for colorectal cancer: a comparison of guaiac-based faecal occult blood testing, faecal immunochemical testing and flexible sigmoidoscopy

    PubMed Central

    Sharp, L; Tilson, L; Whyte, S; O'Ceilleachair, A; Walsh, C; Usher, C; Tappenden, P; Chilcott, J; Staines, A; Barry, M; Comber, H

    2012-01-01

    Background: Several colorectal cancer-screening tests are available, but it is uncertain which provides the best balance of risks and benefits within a screening programme. We evaluated cost-effectiveness of a population-based screening programme in Ireland based on (i) biennial guaiac-based faecal occult blood testing (gFOBT) at ages 55–74, with reflex faecal immunochemical testing (FIT); (ii) biennial FIT at ages 55–74; and (iii) once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy (FSIG) at age 60. Methods: A state-transition model was used to estimate costs and outcomes for each screening scenario vs no screening. A third party payer perspective was adopted. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken. Results: All scenarios would be considered highly cost-effective compared with no screening. The lowest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER vs no screening €589 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained) was found for FSIG, followed by FIT (€1696) and gFOBT (€4428); gFOBT was dominated. Compared with FSIG, FIT was associated with greater gains in QALYs and reductions in lifetime cancer incidence and mortality, but was more costly, required considerably more colonoscopies and resulted in more complications. Results were robust to variations in parameter estimates. Conclusion: Population-based screening based on FIT is expected to result in greater health gains than a policy of gFOBT (with reflex FIT) or once-only FSIG, but would require significantly more colonoscopy resources and result in more individuals experiencing adverse effects. Weighing these advantages and disadvantages presents a considerable challenge to policy makers. PMID:22343624

  15. Prevalence of microcephaly in Europe: population based study.

    PubMed

    Morris, Joan K; Rankin, Judith; Garne, Ester; Loane, Maria; Greenlees, Ruth; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz; Barisic, Ingeborg; Bergman, Jorieke E H; Csaky-Szunyogh, Melinda; Dias, Carlos; Draper, Elizabeth S; Gatt, Miriam; Khoshnood, Babak; Klungsoyr, Kari; Kurinczuk, Jennifer J; Lynch, Catherine; McDonnell, Robert; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J; O'Mahony, Mary T; Pierini, Anna; Randrianaivo, Hanitra; Rissmann, Anke; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; de Walle, Hermien E K; Wellesley, Diana; Wiesel, Awi; Dolk, Helen

    2016-09-13

     To provide contemporary estimates of the prevalence of microcephaly in Europe, determine if the diagnosis of microcephaly is consistent across Europe, and evaluate whether changes in prevalence would be detected using the current European surveillance performed by EUROCAT (the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies).  Questionnaire and population based observational study.  24 EUROCAT registries covering 570 000 births annually in 15 countries.  Cases of microcephaly not associated with a genetic condition among live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks' gestation, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly at any gestation.  Prevalence of microcephaly (1 Jan 2003-31 Dec 2012) analysed with random effects Poisson regression models to account for heterogeneity across registries.  16 registries responded to the questionnaire, of which 44% (7/16) used the EUROCAT definition of microcephaly (a reduction in the size of the brain with a skull circumference more than 3 SD below the mean for sex, age, and ethnic origin), 19% (3/16) used a 2 SD cut off, 31% (5/16) were reliant on the criteria used by individual clinicians, and one changed criteria between 2003 and 2012. Prevalence of microcephaly in Europe was 1.53 (95% confidence interval 1.16 to 1.96) per 10 000 births, with registries varying from 0.4 (0.2 to 0.7) to 4.3 (3.6 to 5.0) per 10 000 (χ(2)=338, df=23, I(2)=93%). Registries with a 3 SD cut off reported a prevalence of 1.74 per 10 000 (0.86 to 2.93) compared with those with the less stringent 2 SD cut off of 1.21 per 10 000 (0.21 to 2.93). The prevalence of microcephaly would need to increase in one year by over 35% in Europe or by over 300% in a single registry to reach statistical significance (P<0.01).  EUROCAT could detect increases in the prevalence of microcephaly from the Zika virus of a similar magnitude to those observed in Brazil. Because of the rarity of microcephaly and discrepant diagnostic criteria, however, the smaller

  16. A population-based survey of mental disorders in Singapore.

    PubMed

    Chong, Siow Ann; Abdin, Edimansyah; Vaingankar, Janhavi Ajit; Heng, Derrick; Sherbourne, Cathy; Yap, Mabel; Lim, Yee Wei; Wong, Hwee Bee; Ghosh-Dastidar, Bonnie; Kwok, Kian Woon; Subramaniam, Mythily

    2012-02-01

    Mental illnesses are not only a growing public health concern but also a major social and economic issue affecting individuals and families throughout the world. The prevalence of mental disorders, the extent of disability caused by these disorders, and services utilisation of these patients has been well studied in developed countries. The aim of this study was to establish the prevalence of select mental disorders and their associated sociodemographic correlates in the adult Singapore resident population. This was a cross-sectional, populationbased, epidemiological study of adult Singapore residents aged 18 years and above. The subjects were randomly selected using a disproportionate stratified sampling method. The diagnoses of selected mental disorders including major depressive disorder (MDD), dysthymia, bipolar (bipolar I & II) disorders, generalised anxiety disorder (GAD), obsessive compulsive disorder (OCD), alcohol abuse and alcohol dependence were established using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview, which is a fully structured diagnostic instrument that assesses lifetime and 12-month prevalence of mental disorders. Among the 6616 respondents (response rate of 75.9%), 12.0% had at least one lifetime affective, anxiety, or alcohol use disorders. The lifetime prevalence of MDD was 5.8% and that of bipolar disorder was 1.2%. The combined lifetime prevalence of the 2 anxiety disorders, GAD and OCD was 3.6%, with the latter being more common than GAD (0.9% and 3.0% respectively). The lifetime prevalence of alcohol abuse and dependence were found to be 3.1% and 0.5% respectively. Age, gender, ethnicity, marital status and chronic physical illnesses were all significant correlates of mental disorders. The identified associated factors would help guide resource allocation, policy formulation and programme development in Singapore.

  17. Using geographic information systems to design population-based interventions.

    PubMed

    Caley, Linda M

    2004-01-01

    Geographic information systems (GIS) offer public health nurses a new technology to plan and implement interventions within communities. The present article gives a brief overview of GIS, describes a project designed to pilot-test the use of GIS for developing population-based interventions, and discusses lessons learned from the project that need to be applied to any future work. Using GIS to map the incidence and prevalence of disease, locate risk factors, and identify access to health care services is not difficult. Trying to move beyond that and use the technology to depict community networks and develop and implement population-based interventions is more problematic. The project identified specific questions that anyone involved in a planning or decision-making project in which GIS are used should ask.

  18. Multiphoton fluorescence lifetime imaging of chemotherapy distribution in solid tumors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlson, Marjorie; Watson, Adrienne L.; Anderson, Leah; Largaespada, David A.; Provenzano, Paolo P.

    2017-11-01

    Doxorubicin is a commonly used chemotherapeutic employed to treat multiple human cancers, including numerous sarcomas and carcinomas. Furthermore, doxorubicin possesses strong fluorescent properties that make it an ideal reagent for modeling drug delivery by examining its distribution in cells and tissues. However, while doxorubicin fluorescence and lifetime have been imaged in live tissue, its behavior in archival samples that frequently result from drug and treatment studies in human and animal patients, and murine models of human cancer, has to date been largely unexplored. Here, we demonstrate imaging of doxorubicin intensity and lifetimes in archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded sections from mouse models of human cancer with multiphoton excitation and multiphoton fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM). Multiphoton excitation imaging reveals robust doxorubicin emission in tissue sections and captures spatial heterogeneity in cells and tissues. However, quantifying the amount of doxorubicin signal in distinct cell compartments, particularly the nucleus, often remains challenging due to strong signals in multiple compartments. The addition of FLIM analysis to display the spatial distribution of excited state lifetimes clearly distinguishes between signals in distinct compartments such as the cell nuclei versus cytoplasm and allows for quantification of doxorubicin signal in each compartment. Furthermore, we observed a shift in lifetime values in the nuclei of transformed cells versus nontransformed cells, suggesting a possible diagnostic role for doxorubicin lifetime imaging to distinguish normal versus transformed cells. Thus, data here demonstrate that multiphoton FLIM is a highly sensitive platform for imaging doxorubicin distribution in normal and diseased archival tissues.

  19. Exits in order: How crowding affects particle lifetimes

    SciTech Connect

    Penington, Catherine J.; Simpson, Matthew J.; Baker, Ruth E.

    2016-06-28

    Diffusive processes are often represented using stochastic random walk frameworks. The amount of time taken for an individual in a random walk to intersect with an absorbing boundary is a fundamental property that is often referred to as the particle lifetime, or the first passage time. The mean lifetime of particles in a random walk model of diffusion is related to the amount of time required for the diffusive process to reach a steady state. Mathematical analysis describing the mean lifetime of particles in a standard model of diffusion without crowding is well known. However, the lifetime of agents inmore » a random walk with crowding has received much less attention. Since many applications of diffusion in biology and biophysics include crowding effects, here we study a discrete model of diffusion that incorporates crowding. Using simulations, we show that crowding has a dramatic effect on agent lifetimes, and we derive an approximate expression for the mean agent lifetime that includes crowding effects. Our expression matches simulation results very well, and highlights the importance of crowding effects that are sometimes overlooked.« less

  20. Fetal size monitoring and birth-weight prediction: a new population-based approach.

    PubMed

    Gjessing, H K; Grøttum, P; Økland, I; Eik-Nes, S H

    2017-04-01

    To develop a complete, population-based system for ultrasound-based fetal size monitoring and birth-weight prediction for use in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. Using 31 516 ultrasound examinations from a population-based Norwegian clinical database, we constructed fetal size charts for biparietal diameter, femur length and abdominal circumference from 24 to 42 weeks' gestation. A reference curve of median birth weight for gestational age was estimated using 45 037 birth weights. We determined how individual deviations from the expected ultrasound measures predicted individual percentage deviations from expected birth weight. The predictive quality was assessed by explained variance of birth weight and receiver-operating characteristics curves for prediction of small-for-gestational age. A curve for intrauterine estimated fetal weight was constructed. Charts were smoothed using the gamlss non-linear regression method. The population-based approach, using bias-free ultrasound gestational age, produces stable estimates of size-for-age and weight-for-age curves in the range 24-42 weeks' gestation. There is a close correspondence between percentage deviations and percentiles of birth weight by gestational age, making it easy to convert between the two. The variance of birth weight that can be 'explained' by ultrasound increases from 8% at 20 weeks up to 67% around term. Intrauterine estimated fetal weight is 0-106 g higher than median birth weight in the preterm period. The new population-based birth-weight prediction model provides a simple summary measure, the 'percentage birth-weight deviation', to be used for fetal size monitoring throughout the third trimester. Predictive quality of the model can be measured directly from the population data. The model computes both median observed birth weight and intrauterine estimated fetal weight. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. Copyright © 2016 ISUOG. Published by John

  1. Lifetime acute suicidal affective disturbance symptoms account for the link between suicide-specific rumination and lifetime past suicide attempts.

    PubMed

    Rogers, Megan L; Joiner, Thomas E

    2018-04-05

    Suicide-specific rumination, defined as rumination about one's suicidal thoughts, intentions, and plans, and Acute Suicidal Affective Disturbance (ASAD) have each been proposed as relevant and proximal predictors of suicidal behavior. The purpose of the current study was to examine relations between suicide-specific rumination, ASAD, and previous number of lifetime suicide attempts, particularly whether ASAD accounted for the association between suicide-specific rumination and previous lifetime suicide attempts. Undergraduate students with a past history of suicidality (N = 300) completed measures of their suicide-specific rumination, lifetime ASAD symptoms, and lifetime history of suicide attempts on an online questionnaire in exchange for course credit. ASAD accounted for the association between suicide-specific rumination and lifetime number of past suicide attempts. This effect was particularly driven by suicidal intent aspect of ASAD, as opposed to the ASAD social alienation, self-alienation, and overarousal facets. An alternative model indicated that suicide-specific rumination did not account for the association between ASAD and lifetime past suicide attempts. This study utilized exclusively self-report measures and a cross-sectional design, thereby precluding inferences of causality. These findings indicated that ASAD may explain the relationship between suicide-specific rumination and lifetime past suicide attempts. Future research using a prospective design is needed to elucidate these patterns and determine causal relationships. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Lifetime occupational history and risk of endometriosis

    PubMed Central

    Marino, Jennifer L.; Holt, Victoria L.; Chen, Chu; Davis, Scott

    2010-01-01

    Objectives Endometriosis is the presence of functioning endometrial glands and stroma outside the uterine cavity, most often in the pelvic peritoneal cavity. Women with endometriosis commonly have dysmenorrhea, dyspareunia, pain, menorrhagia and/or metrorrhagia; disease complications can include adhesions, chronic pain, and infertility. This exploratory case-control study investigated the relationship between lifetime occupational history and surgically confirmed endometriosis in a population-based sample. Methods Interviews were conducted with cases, all reproductive-aged female enrollees of a large health-maintenance organization first diagnosed with surgically confirmed endometriosis between April 1, 1996 and March 31, 2001 and randomly selected controls from the reproductive-aged female enrollee list from the same time period. Each reported job was coded using US Census Occupations and Industries codes, and jobs were classed into categories. Having ever worked an occupation in a given job class was compared to never having done so using unconditional logistic regression. Results Having ever worked as a flight attendant, service station attendant, or health worker, particularly as a nurse or health aide, was associated with increased risk of endometriosis (flight attendant: OR 9.80, 95% CI 1.08 - 89.02; service station attendant: OR 5.77, 95% CI 1.03 -32.43; health worker: OR 1.49, 95% CI 1.03 - 2.15). Income and education did not make a difference in the odds ratio estimates for the occupations examined. Conclusions This exploratory study suggests that having ever worked as a flight attendant, service station attendant, or health worker, particularly as a nurse, may be associated with an increased risk of endometriosis. PMID:19377833

  3. tomoFLIM - fluorescence lifetime projection tomography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McGinty, James; Stuckey, Daniel W.; Tahir, Khadija B.; Laine, Romain; Hajnal, Joseph V.; Sardini, Alessandro; French, Paul M. W.

    2010-02-01

    Optical Projection Tomography (OPT) is a wide-field technique for measuring the threedimensional distribution of absorbing/fluorescing species in non-scattering (optically cleared) samples up to ~1cm in size, and as such is the optical analogue of X-ray computed tomography. We have extended the intensity-based OPT technique to measure the three-dimensional fluorescence lifetime distribution (tomoFLIM) in transparent samples. Due to its inherent ratiometric nature, fluorescence lifetime measurements are robust against intensity-based artifacts as well as producing a quantitative measure of the fluorescence signal, making it particularly suited to Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) measurements. We implement tomoFLIM via OPT by acquiring a series of wide-field time-gated images at different relative time delays with respect to a train of excitation pulses for a range of projection angles. For each time delay, the three-dimensional time-gated intensity distribution is reconstructed using a filtered back projection algorithm and the fluorescence lifetime is subsequently determined for each reconstructed horizontal plane by iterative fitting of an appropriate decay model. We present a tomographic reconstruction of a fluorescence lifetime resolved FRET calcium contruct, TN-L15 cytosol suspension, in a silicone phantom. This genetically encoded sensor, TN-L15, comprises the calcium-binding domain of Troponin C, flanked by the fluorophores cyan fluorescent protein and citrine. In the presence of calcium ions TN-L15 changes conformation bringing the two fluorophores into close proximity, resulting in FRET. We also present autofluorescence and fluorescently labelled tomoFLIM reconstructions of chick embryos, including a genetically encoded fluorophore TagRFP-T. The fluorophore was electroporated in ovo into the neural tube of the embryos, which were subsequently dissected two days post-electroporation, fixed in ethanol and optically cleared for OPT

  4. Fluorescence lifetime imaging by using time-gated data acquisition.

    PubMed

    Soloviev, Vadim Y; Tahir, Khadija B; McGinty, James; Elson, Dan S; Neil, Mark A A; French, Paul M W; Arridge, Simon R

    2007-10-20

    The use of the time gating technique for lifetime reconstruction in the Fourier domain is a novel technique. Time gating provides sufficient data points in the time domain for reliable application of the Fourier transform, which is essential for the time deconvolution of the system of the integral equations employed in the reconstruction. The Fourier domain telegraph equation is employed to model the light transport, which allows a sufficiently broad interval of frequencies to be covered. Reconstructed images contain enough information needed for recovering the lifetime distribution in a sample for any given frequency within the megahertz-gigahertz band. The use of this technique is essential for recovering time-dependent information in fluorescence imaging. This technique was applied in reconstruction of the lifetime distribution of four tubes filled with Rhodamine 6G embedded inside a highly scattering slab. Relatively accurate fluorescence lifetime reconstruction demonstrates the effectiveness and the potential of the proposed technique.

  5. A population based study of herpes simplex virus 2 seroprevalence in rural Costa Rica

    PubMed Central

    Rodriguez, A; Castle, P; Smith, J; Bratti, C; Hildesheim, A; Schiffman, M; Viscidi, R; Burk, R; Ashley, R; Castellsague, X; Herrero, R

    2003-01-01

    Objectives: To determine seroprevalence and determinants of herpes simplex virus 2 (HSV-2) seropositivity, in a random sample of a population based cohort of 10 049 women of Guanacaste, Costa Rica, using a highly sensitive and specific serological assay. Methods: Seroprevalence was determined by a type specific HSV-2 ELISA assay in an age stratified random sample of 1100 women. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was used to calculate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for risk factors of seropositivity. Results: Overall age adjusted HSV-2 seroprevalence was 38.5% (95% CI, 37.5 to 39.5), and it was strongly associated with increasing age (pTrend<0.0001), both among monogamous women and women with multiple sexual partners. A greater number of lifetime sexual partners increased the risk of seropositivity, with a 28.2% (95% CI, 24.4 to 32.2) seroprevalence among monogamous women and 75% (95% CI, 65.6 to 83.0) seroprevalence for those with four or more partners (OR = 7.6 95% CI, 4.7 to 12.4 pTrend<0.0001). Barrier contraceptive use was negatively associated with HSV-2 seropositivity (OR 0.54, 95% CI, 0.31 to 0.94). Women with antibodies against HPV 16, 18, or 31 were 1.6 times more likely to be HSV-2 seropositive (OR 1.6, 95% CI, 1.2 to 2.1). Conclusions: HSV-2 infection is highly endemic in Guanacaste, even among lifetime monogamous women, suggesting a role of male behaviour in the transmission of the infection. Until vaccination against HSV-2 is available, education to prevent high risk sexual behaviour and the use of condoms appear as preventive measures against HSV-2. PMID:14663121

  6. Modeling the lifetime costs of insulin glargine and insulin detemir in type 1 and type 2 diabetes patients in Canada: a meta-analysis and a cost-minimization analysis.

    PubMed

    Guillermin, Anne-Laure; Samyshkin, Yevgeniy; Wright, Donna; Nguyen, Tini; Villeneuve, Julie

    2011-01-01

    Two basal insulin analogues, insulin glargine once daily and insulin detemir once or twice daily, are marketed in Canada. To estimate the long-term costs of insulin glargine once daily (QD) versus insulin detemir once or twice daily (QD or BID) for type 1 (T1DM) and type 2 (T2DM) diabetes mellitus from a Canadian provincial government's perspective. A cost-minimization analysis comparing insulin glargine (IGlarg) to insulin detemir (IDet) was conducted using a validated computer simulation model, the CORE Diabetes Model. Lifetime direct medical costs including costs of insulin treatment and diabetes complications were projected. T1DM and T2DM patients' daily insulin dose (T1DM: IGlarg QD 26.2 IU; IDet BID 33.6 IU; T2DM: IGlarg QD 47.2 IU; IDet QD 65.7 IU or IDet BID 80.4 IU) was derived from a meta-analysis of randomized trials. All patients were assumed to stay on the same treatment for life. Costs were discounted at 5% per annum and reported in 2010 Canadian Dollars. The meta-analysis showed T1DM and T2DM patients had similar HbA(1c) change from baseline when receiving IGlarg compared to IDet (T1DM: 0.002%-points; p = 0.97; T2DM: -0.05%-points; p = 0.28). Treatment of T1DM patients with IGlarg versus IDet BID resulted in lifetime cost savings of $4231 per patient. Treatment of T2DM patients with IGlarg resulted in lifetime cost savings of $4659 per patient versus IDet QD and cost savings of $8709 per patient versus IDet BID. Similar HbA(1c) change from baseline can be achieved with a lower IGlarg than IDet dose. From the perspective of a Canadian provincial government, treatment of T1DM and T2DM patients with IGlarg instead of IDet can generate long-term cost savings. Main limitations include trial data were derived from multi-country studies rather than the Canadian population and self-monitoring blood glucose costs were not included.

  7. HIV incidence from the first population-based cohort study in India.

    PubMed

    Dandona, Lalit; Kumar, G Anil; Lakshmi, Vemu; Ahmed, G Md Mushtaq; Akbar, Mohammed; Ramgopal, Sri P; Sudha, Talasila; Alary, Michel; Dandona, Rakhi

    2013-07-17

    Understanding about who acquires new HIV infection and the determinants of why some persons get infected and others do not is fundamental to controlling HIV in the population. We assess HIV incidence and its associations in the population of a high HIV burden district in Andhra Pradesh state in southern India by a population-based longitudinal cohort study. We re-surveyed a population-based cohort of 12,617 adults in Guntur district of Andhra Pradesh for which we had reported a baseline HIV prevalence of 1.72% (rural 1.64%, urban 1.89%) among the 15-49 years age group in 2004-2005. We conducted interviews to assess risk behaviour and performed HIV testing again in 2010-2011. We assessed the rate of new HIV infection and its associations using multiple logistic regression. The participation rate in the follow-up was 74.9% and 63.9% of the baseline rural and urban samples, respectively. Over a mean follow-up of 5.63 years, the incidence of HIV was 1.26 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0.83-1.69), after adjusting for slight compositional bias in the follow-up sample. The incidence per 1000 person-years was higher among rural men (1.68) than urban men (0.85), and among rural women (1.28) than urban women (0.54). The strongest association with incidence was a HIV positive spouse in the baseline for both men (odds ratio 266, 95% CI 62-1137) and women (odds ratio 28, 95% CI 9-88). Among men the other significant associations with HIV incidence were frequent use of condom for sex over the past 6 months, non-circumcision, more than one lifetime woman sex partner or ever visited sex worker, and transport-related occupation; for women the other significant associations were having had HIV testing other than antenatal check-up, previously married but currently not, and tobacco use. These first population-based cohort incidence data from India suggest that rural areas of high HIV burden states would need more attention to prevent new HIV infections, and that spouses of HIV

  8. Occupations associated with COPD risk in the large population-based UK Biobank cohort study.

    PubMed

    De Matteis, Sara; Jarvis, Deborah; Hutchings, Sally; Darnton, Andy; Fishwick, David; Sadhra, Steven; Rushton, Lesley; Cullinan, Paul

    2016-06-01

    Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. Exposure to occupational hazards is an important preventable risk factor but the contribution of specific occupations to COPD risk in a general population is uncertain. Our aim was to investigate the association of COPD with occupation in the UK population. In 2006-2010, the UK Biobank cohort recruited 502 649 adults aged 40-69 years. COPD cases were identified by prebronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s/forced vital capacitymodel adjusted for sex, age, recruitment centre and lifetime tobacco smoking. Analyses restricted to never-smokers and non-asthmatics were also performed. Of the 353 occupations reported by 228 614 current working participants, several showed significantly increased COPD risk. Those at highest COPD risk were seafarers (PR=2.64; 95% CI 1.59 to 4.38), coal mine operatives (PR=2.30; 95% CI 1.00 to 5.31), cleaners (industrial: PR=1.96; 95% CI 1.16 to 3.31 and domestic: PR=1.43; 95% CI 1.28 to 1.59), roofers/tilers (PR=1.86; 95% CI 1.29 to 2.67), packers/bottlers/canners/fillers (PR=1.60; 95% CI 1.15 to 2.22), horticultural trades (PR=1.55; 95% CI 0.97 to 2.50), food/drink/tobacco process operatives (PR=1.46; 95% CI 1.11 to 1.93), floorers/wall tilers (PR=1.41; 95% CI 1.00 to 2.00), chemical/related process operatives (PR=1.39; 95% CI 0.98 to 1.97), postal workers/couriers (PR=1.35; 95% CI 1.15 to 1.59), labourers in building/woodworking trades (PR=1.32; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.68), school mid-day assistants (PR=1.32; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.74) and kitchen/catering assistants (PR=1.30; 95% CI 1.10 to 1.53). Associations were similar in

  9. The cost of epilepsy in the United States: an estimate from population-based clinical and survey data.

    PubMed

    Begley, C E; Famulari, M; Annegers, J F; Lairson, D R; Reynolds, T F; Coan, S; Dubinsky, S; Newmark, M E; Leibson, C; So, E L; Rocca, W A

    2000-03-01

    To provide 1995 estimates of the lifetime and annual cost of epilepsy in the United States using data from patients with epilepsy, and adjusting for the effects of comorbidities and socioeconomic conditions. Direct treatment-related costs of epilepsy from onset through 6 years were derived from billing and medical chart data for 608 population-based incident cases at two sites in different regions of the country. Indirect productivity-related costs were derived from a survey of 1,168 adult patients visiting regional treatment centers. Direct costs separate the effects of epilepsy and comorbidity conditions. Indirect costs account for the effects of other disabilities and socioeconomic conditions on foregone earnings and household activity. The estimates were applied to 1995 population figures to derive national projections of the lifetime and annual costs of the disorder. The lifetime cost of epilepsy for an estimated 181,000 people with onset in 1995 is projected at $11.1 billion, and the annual cost for the estimated 2.3 million prevalent cases is estimated at $12.5 billion. Indirect costs account for 85% of the total and, with direct costs, are concentrated in people with intractable epilepsy. Direct costs attributable to epilepsy are below previous estimates. Indirect costs adjusted for the socioeconomic conditions of patients are above previous estimates. Findings indicate that epilepsy is unique in the large proportion of costs that are productivity-related, justifying further investment in the development of effective interventions.

  10. Lifetime Risks of Cardiovascular Disease

    PubMed Central

    Berry, Jarett D.; Dyer, Alan; Cai, Xuan; Garside, Daniel B.; Ning, Hongyan; Thomas, Avis; Greenland, Philip; Van Horn, Linda; Tracy, Russell P.; Lloyd-Jones, Donald M.

    2012-01-01

    BACKGROUND The lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease have not been reported across the age spectrum in black adults and white adults. METHODS We conducted a meta-analysis at the individual level using data from 18 cohort studies involving a total of 257,384 black men and women and white men and women whose risk factors for cardiovascular disease were measured at the ages of 45, 55, 65, and 75 years. Blood pressure, cholesterol level, smoking status, and diabetes status were used to stratify participants according to risk factors into five mutually exclusive categories. The remaining lifetime risks of cardiovascular events were estimated for participants in each category at each age, with death free of cardiovascular disease treated as a competing event. RESULTS We observed marked differences in the lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease across risk-factor strata. Among participants who were 55 years of age, those with an optimal risk-factor profile (total cholesterol level, <180 mg per deciliter [4.7 mmol per liter]; blood pressure, <120 mm Hg systolic and 80 mm Hg diastolic; nonsmoking status; and nondiabetic status) had substantially lower risks of death from cardiovascular disease through the age of 80 years than participants with two or more major risk factors (4.7% vs. 29.6% among men, 6.4% vs. 20.5% among women). Those with an optimal risk-factor profile also had lower lifetime risks of fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal myocardial infarction (3.6% vs. 37.5% among men, <1% vs. 18.3% among women) and fatal or nonfatal stroke (2.3% vs. 8.3% among men, 5.3% vs. 10.7% among women). Similar trends within risk-factor strata were observed among blacks and whites and across diverse birth cohorts. CONCLUSIONS Differences in risk-factor burden translate into marked differences in the lifetime risk of cardiovascular disease, and these differences are consistent across race and birth cohorts. (Funded by the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.) PMID

  11. Lifetime Assessment of the NEXT Ion Thruster

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    VanNoord, Jonathan L.

    2010-01-01

    Ion thrusters are low thrust, high specific impulse devices with required operational lifetimes on the order of 10,000 to 100,000 hr. The NEXT ion thruster is the latest generation of ion thrusters under development. The NEXT ion thruster currently has a qualification level propellant throughput requirement of 450 kg of xenon, which corresponds to roughly 22,000 hr of operation at the highest throttling point. Currently, a NEXT engineering model ion thruster with prototype model ion optics is undergoing a long duration test to determine wear characteristics and establish propellant throughput capability. The NEXT thruster includes many improvements over previous generations of ion thrusters, but two of its component improvements have a larger effect on thruster lifetime. These include the ion optics with tighter tolerances, a masked region and better gap control, and the discharge cathode keeper material change to graphite. Data from the NEXT 2000 hr wear test, the NEXT long duration test, and further analysis is used to determine the expected lifetime of the NEXT ion thruster. This paper will review the predictions for all of the anticipated failure mechanisms. The mechanisms will include wear of the ion optics and cathode s orifice plate and keeper from the plasma, depletion of low work function material in each cathode s insert, and spalling of material in the discharge chamber leading to arcing. Based on the analysis of the NEXT ion thruster, the first failure mode for operation above a specific impulse of 2000 sec is expected to be the structural failure of the ion optics at 750 kg of propellant throughput, 1.7 times the qualification requirement. An assessment based on mission analyses for operation below a specific impulse of 2000 sec indicates that the NEXT thruster is capable of double the propellant throughput required by these missions.

  12. Population-based strategies to control manufacturing epidemics.

    PubMed

    Gorini, Giuseppe

    2017-01-01

    "The multinational corporations producing tobacco, alcohol, soft drinks, and processed foods have a role of vectors in the increase of chronic diseases, so that one can speak of manufacturing epidemics. The main aim of this paper is to conduct a literature review on different approaches in population-based interventions to stem the rise in consumption of unhealthy products. Different approaches were found: • command-and-control regulations: the route is definitely more advanced for tobacco with the implementation of an international treaty, which requires 180 ratifying states to implement a series of tobacco control policies. Similar regulations have been partially adopted to reduce alcohol use and to increase taxes of sugar-sweetened beverages; • multinational corporations in few Countries can voluntarily adopt recommendations on media campaigns and on labelling of soft drinks and processed foods; • in order to reduce salt in foods, many Countries developed voluntary agreements with industries with monitoring systems to assess compliance. Population-based interventions to try to align the interests of multinational corporations with those of public health are described in literature: • the "Health Footprint" programme; • the performance-based regulation which could oblige industry to take responsibility to reduce the harmful consequences of the use of their unhealthy commodities; • the price-cap regulation, usually applied to the utilities sector, would set a cap on the price of the tobacco industry, raising the tobacco taxes by 500 million euros per year. In order to reduce the burden of chronic disease, one of the objectives of the Italian National Prevention Plan, a working group including non-governmental organizations and experts in communication, social marketing, and lifestyles should be organized by the Ministry of Health in order to identify which population-based interventions could be implemented in Italy in next years to stem the rise of

  13. The impact of childhood parental loss on risk for mood, anxiety and substance use disorders in a population-based sample of male twins.

    PubMed

    Otowa, Takeshi; York, Timothy P; Gardner, Charles O; Kendler, Kenneth S; Hettema, John M

    2014-12-15

    Previous studies have identified the relationship between parental loss and psychopathology later in life. However, this relationship varied depending on the kind of loss, the parent involved, and the type of psychopathology. In the present study, we examined the association between parental loss (any loss, death, and separation) during childhood and lifetime risk for seven common psychiatric and substance use disorders in a sample of 2605 male twins from the Virginia population-based twin registry. Using structural equation modeling (SEM), we also examined the extent to which the influence of parental loss contributes to adult psychopathology. Parental separation was associated with a wide range of adult psychopathology, whereas parental death was specifically associated with phobia and alcohol dependence. Maternal and paternal separations were almost equally associated with most forms of psychopathology. SEM suggested that parental loss accounted for about 10% of the variance of adult psychopathology, of which parental separation had the strongest impacts on risk for depression and drug abuse/dependence (11% of the total variance). Our findings suggest that early parental separation has stronger and wider effects on adult psychopathology than parental death. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. A non-invasive approach to study lifetime exposure and bioaccumulation of PCBs in protected marine mammals: PBPK modeling in harbor porpoises

    SciTech Connect

    Weijs, Liesbeth, E-mail: liesbeth.weijs@ua.ac.be; Toxicological Centre, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk; Covaci, Adrian

    2011-10-15

    In the last decade, physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models have increasingly been developed to explain the kinetics of environmental pollutants in wildlife. For marine mammals specifically, these models provide a new, non-destructive tool that enables the integration of biomonitoring activities and in vitro studies. The goals of the present study were firstly to develop PBPK models for several environmental relevant PCB congeners in harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena), a species that is sensitive to pollution because of its limited metabolic capacity for pollutant transformation. These models were tested using tissue data of porpoises from the Black Sea. Secondly, the predictive powermore » of the models was investigated for time trends in the PCB concentrations in North Sea harbor porpoises between 1990 and 2008. Thirdly, attempts were made to assess metabolic capacities of harbor porpoises for the investigated PCBs. In general, results show that parameter values from other species (rodents, humans) are not always suitable in marine mammal models, most probably due to differences in physiology and exposure. The PCB 149 levels decrease the fastest in male harbor porpoises from the North Sea in a time period of 18 years, whereas the PCB 101 levels decrease the slowest. According to the models, metabolic breakdown of PCB 118 is probably of lesser importance compared to other elimination pathways. For PCB 101 and 149 however, the presence of their metabolites can be attributed to bioaccumulation of metabolites from the prey and to metabolic breakdown of the parent compounds in the harbor porpoises. - Highlights: > PBPK modeling was used to study the kinetics of several PCBs in a marine mammal. > Harbor porpoises are sensitive to pollution and therefore ideal model organisms. > Black Sea data were used for parameterization. > North Sea data for assessing temporal trends (1990-2008). > PBPK modeling is a non-invasive and non-destructive tool.« less

  15. An obesity/cardiometabolic risk reduction disease management program: a population-based approach.

    PubMed

    Villagra, Victor G

    2009-04-01

    Obesity is a critical health concern that has captured the attention of public and private healthcare payers who are interested in controlling costs and mitigating the long-term economic consequences of the obesity epidemic. Population-based approaches to obesity management have been proposed that take advantage of a chronic care model (CCM), including patient self-care, the use of community-based resources, and the realization of care continuity through ongoing communications with patients, information technology, and public policy changes. Payer-sponsored disease management programs represent an important conduit to delivering population-based care founded on similar CCM concepts. Disease management is founded on population-based disease identification, evidence-based care protocols, and collaborative practices between clinicians. While substantial clinician training, technology infrastructure commitments, and financial support at the payer level will be needed for the success of disease management programs in obesity and cardiometabolic risk reduction, these barriers can be overcome with the proper commitment. Disease management programs represent an important tool to combat the growing societal risks of overweight and obesity.

  16. The positive effects of population-based preferential sampling in environmental epidemiology.

    PubMed

    Antonelli, Joseph; Cefalu, Matthew; Bornn, Luke

    2016-10-01

    SummaryIn environmental epidemiology, exposures are not always available at subject locations and must be predicted using monitoring data. The monitor locations are often outside the control of researchers, and previous studies have shown that "preferential sampling" of monitoring locations can adversely affect exposure prediction and subsequent health effect estimation. We adopt a slightly different definition of preferential sampling than is typically seen in the literature, which we call population-based preferential sampling. Population-based preferential sampling occurs when the location of the monitors is dependent on the subject locations. We show the impact that population-based preferential sampling has on exposure prediction and health effect estimation using analytic results and a simulation study. A simple, one-parameter model is proposed to measure the degree to which monitors are preferentially sampled with respect to population density. We then discuss these concepts in the context of PM2.5 and the EPA Air Quality System monitoring sites, which are generally placed in areas of higher population density to capture the population's exposure. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Estimating lifetime healthcare costs with morbidity data

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background In many developed countries, the economic crisis started in 2008 producing a serious contraction of the financial resources spent on healthcare. Identifying which individuals will require more resources and the moment in their lives these resources have to be allocated becomes essential. It is well known that a small number of individuals with complex healthcare needs consume a high percentage of health expenditures. Conversely, little is known on how morbidity evolves throughout life. The aim of this study is to introduce a longitudinal perspective to chronic disease management. Methods Data used relate to the population of the county of Baix Empordà in Catalonia for the period 2004–2007 (average population was N = 88,858). The database included individual information on morbidity, resource consumption, costs and activity records. The population was classified using the Clinical Risk Groups (CRG) model. Future morbidity evolution was simulated under different assumptions using a stationary Markov chain. We obtained morbidity patterns for the lifetime and the distribution function of the random variable lifetime costs. Individual information on acute episodes, chronic conditions and multimorbidity patterns were included in the model. Results The probability of having a specific health status in the future (healthy, acute process or different combinations of chronic illness) and the distribution function of healthcare costs for the individual lifetime were obtained for the sample population. The mean lifetime cost for women was €111,936, a third higher than for men, at €81,566 (all amounts calculated in 2007 Euros). Healthy life expectancy at birth for females was 46.99, lower than for males (50.22). Females also spent 28.41 years of life suffering from some type of chronic disease, a longer period than men (21.9). Conclusions Future morbidity and whole population costs can be reasonably predicted, combining stochastic microsimulation with a

  18. Probabilistic Prediction of Lifetimes of Ceramic Parts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nemeth, Noel N.; Gyekenyesi, John P.; Jadaan, Osama M.; Palfi, Tamas; Powers, Lynn; Reh, Stefan; Baker, Eric H.

    2006-01-01

    ANSYS/CARES/PDS is a software system that combines the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) software with a modified version of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structures Life (CARES/Life) Version 6.0 software. [A prior version of CARES/Life was reported in Program for Evaluation of Reliability of Ceramic Parts (LEW-16018), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 20, No. 3 (March 1996), page 28.] CARES/Life models effects of stochastic strength, slow crack growth, and stress distribution on the overall reliability of a ceramic component. The essence of the enhancement in CARES/Life 6.0 is the capability to predict the probability of failure using results from transient finite-element analysis. ANSYS PDS models the effects of uncertainty in material properties, dimensions, and loading on the stress distribution and deformation. ANSYS/CARES/PDS accounts for the effects of probabilistic strength, probabilistic loads, probabilistic material properties, and probabilistic tolerances on the lifetime and reliability of the component. Even failure probability becomes a stochastic quantity that can be tracked as a response variable. ANSYS/CARES/PDS enables tracking of all stochastic quantities in the design space, thereby enabling more precise probabilistic prediction of lifetimes of ceramic components.

  19. Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Archer, David; Eby, Michael; Brovkin, Victor; Ridgwell, Andy; Cao, Long; Mikolajewicz, Uwe; Caldeira, Ken; Matsumoto, Katsumi; Munhoven, Guy; Montenegro, Alvaro; Tokos, Kathy

    2009-05-01

    CO2 released from combustion of fossil fuels equilibrates among the various carbon reservoirs of the atmosphere, the ocean, and the terrestrial biosphere on timescales of a few centuries. However, a sizeable fraction of the CO2 remains in the atmosphere, awaiting a return to the solid earth by much slower weathering processes and deposition of CaCO3. Common measures of the atmospheric lifetime of CO2, including the e-folding time scale, disregard the long tail. Its neglect in the calculation of global warming potentials leads many to underestimate the longevity of anthropogenic global warming. Here, we review the past literature on the atmospheric lifetime of fossil fuel CO2 and its impact on climate, and we present initial results from a model intercomparison project on this topic. The models agree that 20-35% of the CO2 remains in the atmosphere after equilibration with the ocean (2-20 centuries). Neutralization by CaCO3 draws the airborne fraction down further on timescales of 3 to 7 kyr.

  20. Lifetime Traumatic Experiences and Leisure Physical Inactivity among Adolescent Boys.

    PubMed

    Malinauskas, Romualdas; Malinauskiene, Vilija; Malinauskas, Mindaugas

    2018-03-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the associations between lifetime traumatic experiences and leisure physical inactivity among adolescent boys and to determine to what extent those associations are mediated by posttraumatic stress symptoms, unhealthy behaviors (smoking, alcohol use), the daily consumption of fresh fruit, and sense of coherence. A self-administered questionnaire combining 3 instruments measured leisure physical activity level (Godin and Shephard), symptoms of posttraumatic stress (IES-revised), lifetime traumatic experiences, sense of coherence (SOC-13, from Antonovsky), and behavioral and dietary patterns in a representative sample of eighth grade boys from a number of Kaunas, Lithuania, secondary schools (N = 885; response rate 88.6%). Fifty-six point eight percent of boys had experienced at least 1 lifetime traumatic event, with a 20.5% prevalence of PTS symptoms, and 5.4% were inactive during leisure time. In the logistic regression models, leisure physical inactivity was associated with lifetime traumatic experiences (adjusted OR = 2.33; 95% CI: 1.09-4.98). Sense of coherence and posttraumatic stress symptoms did not mediate those associations. Less-than-daily consumption of fresh fruit showed an independent effect, while smoking and weekly consumption of alcohol did not. Consistent associations between lifetime traumatic experiences and leisure physical inactivity among adolescent boys indicate that the presence of lifetime traumatic events should be taken into account when employing intervention and prevention programs on unhealthy lifestyles (physical inactivity, smoking, and alcohol).

  1. Genotypic-specific variance in Caenorhabditis elegans lifetime fecundity.

    PubMed

    Diaz, S Anaid; Viney, Mark

    2014-06-01

    Organisms live in heterogeneous environments, so strategies that maximze fitness in such environments will evolve. Variation in traits is important because it is the raw material on which natural selection acts during evolution. Phenotypic variation is usually thought to be due to genetic variation and/or environmentally induced effects. Therefore, genetically identical individuals in a constant environment should have invariant traits. Clearly, genetically identical individuals do differ phenotypically, usually thought to be due to stochastic processes. It is now becoming clear, especially from studies of unicellular species, that phenotypic variance among genetically identical individuals in a constant environment can be genetically controlled and that therefore, in principle, this can be subject to selection. However, there has been little investigation of these phenomena in multicellular species. Here, we have studied the mean lifetime fecundity (thus a trait likely to be relevant to reproductive success), and variance in lifetime fecundity, in recently-wild isolates of the model nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. We found that these genotypes differed in their variance in lifetime fecundity: some had high variance in fecundity, others very low variance. We find that this variance in lifetime fecundity was negatively related to the mean lifetime fecundity of the lines, and that the variance of the lines was positively correlated between environments. We suggest that the variance in lifetime fecundity may be a bet-hedging strategy used by this species.

  2. Population-based estimate of urinary stones from Ballabgarh, northern India.

    PubMed

    Lohiya, Ayush; Kant, Shashi; Kapil, Arti; Gupta, Sanjeev Kumar; Misra, Puneet; Rai, Sanjay K

    2017-01-01

    Stones in the urinary tract are a common condition but there is paucity of data on their population-based estimates in India. We describe our findings of the burden of urinary stones during a cross-sectional study with another primary goal. We conducted the study at Ballabgarh Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Haryana, among residents aged 18 years or above. We used simple random sampling to enrol participants. Self-reported history of urinary stones was elicited through an interview schedule. Results of the descriptive analysis were described as proportions with 95% confidence intervals (CI) or as mean wherever applicable. Bivariate analysis was done using t-test and chi-square test as applicable. The response rate for our study was 86.6%; lifetime prevalence (95% CI) of urinary stones was 7.9% (5.7, 10.8). In a majority of participants, urinary stones were diagnosed at an age of 20-40 years (55.9%), mostly by an ultrasonography examination (94.1%). A high burden of urinary stones is indicated in the working-age population in northern India at the community level. Untreated urinary stones can lead to an acute emergency (colic) or may have long-term adverse consequences, e.g. hydronephrosis, which have implications for the healthcare delivery system.

  3. Lung Cancer and Occupation in a Population-based Case-Control Study

    PubMed Central

    Consonni, Dario; De Matteis, Sara; Lubin, Jay H.; Wacholder, Sholom; Tucker, Margaret; Pesatori, Angela Cecilia; Caporaso, Neil E.; Bertazzi, Pier Alberto; Landi, Maria Teresa

    2010-01-01

    The authors examined the relation between occupation and lung cancer in the large, population-based Environment And Genetics in Lung cancer Etiology (EAGLE) case-control study. In 2002–2005 in the Lombardy region of northern Italy, 2,100 incident lung cancer cases and 2,120 randomly selected population controls were enrolled. Lifetime occupational histories (industry and job title) were coded by using standard international classifications and were translated into occupations known (list A) or suspected (list B) to be associated with lung cancer. Smoking-adjusted odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated with logistic regression. For men, an increased risk was found for list A (177 exposed cases and 100 controls; odds ratio = 1.74, 95% confidence interval: 1.27, 2.38) and most occupations therein. No overall excess was found for list B with the exception of filling station attendants and bus and truck drivers (men) and launderers and dry cleaners (women). The authors estimated that 4.9% (95% confidence interval: 2.0, 7.8) of lung cancers in men were attributable to occupation. Among those in other occupations, risk excesses were found for metal workers, barbers and hairdressers, and other motor vehicle drivers. These results indicate that past exposure to occupational carcinogens remains an important determinant of lung cancer occurrence. PMID:20047975

  4. Risk of Negative Outcomes After Traumatic Brain Injury: A Statewide Population-Based Survey.

    PubMed

    Whiteneck, Gale G; Cuthbert, Jeffery P; Corrigan, John D; Bogner, Jennifer A

    2016-01-01

    To investigate the rates of negative outcomes associated with all severities of traumatic brain injury (TBI), treated in all settings or not treated at all, in comparison to the general population. Coloradoans without injury, with injury but no TBI, with mild TBI but no loss of consciousness (LOC), mild TBI with LOC, moderate TBI, or severe TBI. Statewide population-based survey. Computer-assisted, modified Ohio State University TBI Identification Method; Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System and National Health Interview Survey questions; Satisfaction with Life Scale; and postconcussive symptoms. Up to 42.5% of participants reported a lifetime history of at least 1 TBI. Multiple negative outcomes were found to increase in prevalence in a stepwise fashion in association with greater TBI severity, with the clearest patterns observed for disability, poor life satisfaction, and impaired memory. Traumatic brain injury was found to be associated with disability and other negative outcomes in a general population survey. This study does not allow us to examine the proximate causes of disability, but it suggests that TBI may serve to both cause disability directly and exacerbate the influence of other etiologies. These relations should be examined in subsequent studies.

  5. A photoionization model considering lifetime of high excited states of N2 for PIC-MCC simulations of positive streamers in air

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Ming; Li, Yongdong; Wang, Hongguang; Zhong, Pengfeng; Liu, Chunliang

    2018-01-01

    Photoionization plays an important role in the mechanism of positive streamer discharges in air. The photoelectron production rate at high pressures is significantly overestimated in the widely used quantitative photoionization model in nitrogen-oxygen mixtures. A new photoionization model is proposed to surmount this disadvantage approximately by tracking the generation and deactivation of high excited states of N2. Implementation, validation, and discussion of the new photoionization model are presented in this paper. The photoionization coefficient, the fraction of nitrogen ionization events that leads to oxygen photoionization events without quenching, is computed in the new model. It decreases with the increasing pressure when E/p is constant, which agrees with the early experimental results and corrects the overestimation of the photoionization coefficients at high pressures to some extent. Simulations of positive streamers show that the generation and deactivation of high excited states of N2 weaken the discharge of nitrogen and enhance the nonlocal discharge of oxygen with a time delay in the new model. The time delay slows down the positive streamer discharges in our simulations.

  6. The mass-lifetime relation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    LoPresto, Michael C.

    2018-05-01

    In a recent "AstroNote," I described a simple exercise on the mass-luminosity relation for main sequence stars as an example of exposing students in a general education science course of lower mathematical level to the use of quantitative skills such as collecting and analyzing data. Here I present another attempt at a meaningful experience for such students that again involves both the gathering and analysis of numerical data and comparison with accepted result, this time on the relationship of the mass and lifetimes of main sequence stars. This experiment can stand alone or be used as an extension of the previous mass-luminosity relationship experiment.

  7. Discriminating Famous from Fictional Names Based on Lifetime Experience: Evidence in Support of a Signal-Detection Model Based on Finite Mixture Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowles, Ben; Harlow, Iain M.; Meeking, Melissa M.; Kohler, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    It is widely accepted that signal-detection mechanisms contribute to item-recognition memory decisions that involve discriminations between targets and lures based on a controlled laboratory study episode. Here, the authors employed mathematical modeling of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) to determine whether and how a signal-detection…

  8. Using Sport Education to Teach the Lifetime Sport of Golf

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Scarboro, Shot; Pritchard, Tony

    2015-01-01

    Golf is a lifetime sport activity that can be taught in physical education classes. How one teaches golf in physical education could influence whether students will want to continue to participate outside of physical education. The sport education model (SEM) is an instructional model that promotes student learning in all three domains by ensuring…

  9. Magnetic flux transport on active cool stars and starspot lifetimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Işik, E.; Schüssler, M.; Solanki, S. K.

    2007-03-01

    Context: Many rapidly rotating cool stars show signatures of large magnetic regions at all latitudes. Mid-latitude starspots and magnetic regions have characteristic lifetimes of 1 month or less, as indicated by observations using (Zeeman-) Doppler imaging techniques. Aims: We aim to estimate the lifetimes of bipolar magnetic regions and starspots on the surfaces of cool stars. We consider different possible configurations for starspots and compare their flux variations and lifetimes based on a magnetic flux transport model. Methods: We carry out numerical simulations of the surface evolution of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) and magnetic spots on stars, which have radii and surface rotational shears of AB Doradus, the Sun, and the HR 1099 primary. The surface flux transport model is based on the magnetic induction equation for radial fields under the effects of surface differential rotation, meridional flow, and turbulent diffusion due to convective flow patterns. We calculate the flux evolution and the lifetimes of BMRs and unipolar starspots, varying the emergence latitude, surface shear rate, and tilt angle. Results: For BMRs comparable to the largest observed on the Sun, we find that varying the surface flows and the tilt angle modifies the lifetimes over a range of one month. For very large BMRs (area ~10% of the stellar surface) the assumption of a tilt angle increasing with latitude leads to a significant increase of lifetime, as compared to the case without tilt. Such regions can evolve to polar spots that live more than a year. Adopting the observed weak latitudinal shear and the radius of the active subgiant component of HR 1099, we find longer BMR lifetimes as compared to the more strongly sheared AB Dor case. Random emergence of six additional tilted bipoles in an activity belt at 60° latitude enhanced the lifetimes of polar caps up to 7 years. We have also compared the evolution and lifetime of monolithic starspots with those of conglomerates of

  10. Lifetime Measurement of 26O

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Redpath, Thomas; MoNA Collaboration

    2017-01-01

    An interesting property of some neutron-unbound systems is true two-neutron emission where the neutrons are emitted simultaneously as opposed to a sequential decay through an intermediate state. Since neutrons are only affected by the angular momentum barrier, the timescale for this process is much shorter than for two proton emission which is dominated by the Coulomb barrier. One such case is 26O where a very low decay energy was measured and the two valence neutrons are expected to occupy d-wave orbitals. Also, the ground state of 25O is located 700 keV higher. In a first experiment, the MoNA collaboration extracted a lifetime of 4 .5-1 . 5 + 1 . 1 (stat) +/- 3(syst) ps with a confidence level of 82%. Recently, an experiment dedicated to measuring the 26O lifetime in order to improve the confidence level of the measurement was performed at NSCL. The experiment utilized a newly developed segmented target which increased the statistics without degrading the resolution. Preliminary results will be presented. NSF PHY-1002511, DOE-NNSA DE-NA0000979.

  11. Lifetimes and heavy quark expansion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lenz, Alexander

    2015-04-01

    Kolya Uraltsev was one of the inventors of the Heavy Quark Expansion (HQE), that describes inclusive weak decays of hadrons containing heavy quarks and in particular lifetimes. Besides giving a pedagogic introduction to the subject, we review the development and the current status of the HQE, which just recently passed several non-trivial experimental tests with an unprecedented precision. In view of many new experimental results for lifetimes of heavy hadrons, we also update several theory predictions: τ (B+)/τ (Bd) = 1.04+0.05-0.01 ± 0.02 ± 0.01, τ(Bs)/τ(Bd) = 1.001 ±0.002, τ(Λb)/τ(Bd) = 0.935 ±0.054 and \\bar {τ } (Ξ b0)/\\bar {τ } (Ξ b+) = 0.95 ± 0.06. The theoretical precision is currently strongly limited by the unknown size of the non-perturbative matrix elements of four-quark operators, which could be determined with lattice simulations.

  12. Corrosion Preventive Compounds Lifetime Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hale, Stephanie M.; Kammerer, Catherine C.

    2007-01-01

    Lifetime Testing of Corrosion Preventive Compounds (CPCs) was performed to quantify performance in the various environments to which the Space Shuttle Orbiter is exposed during a flight cycle. Three CPCs are approved for use on the Orbiter: HD Calcium Grease, Dinitrol AV-30, and Braycote 601 EF. These CPCs have been rigorously tested to prove that they mitigate corrosion in typical environments, but little information is available on how they perform in the unique combination of the coastal environment at the launch pad, the vacuum of low-earth orbit, and the extreme heat of reentry. Currently, there is no lifetime or reapplication schedule established for these compounds that is based on this combination of environmental conditions. Aluminum 2024 coupons were coated with the three CPCs and exposed to conditions that simulate the environments to which the Orbiter is exposed. Uncoated Aluminum 2024 coupons were exposed to the environmental conditions as a control. Visual inspection and Electro- Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) were performed on the samples in order to determine the effectiveness of the CPCs. The samples were processed through five mission life cycles or until the visual inspection revealed the initiation of corrosion and EIS indicated severe degradation of the coating.

  13. Childhood victimization and lifetime revictimization

    PubMed Central

    Czaja, Sally J.; Dutton, Mary Ann

    2008-01-01

    Objective To examine the fundamental hypothesis that childhood victimization leads to increased vulnerability for subsequent (re)victimization in adolescence and adulthood and, if so, whether there are differences in rates of experiencing traumas and victimizations by gender, race/ethnicity, and type of childhood abuse and/or neglect. Methods Using a prospective cohort design, participants are individuals with documented cases of childhood physical and sexual abuse and neglect from the years 1967 through 1971 and a matched control group. Both groups were interviewed in-person (mean age 39.5 years) in 2000–2002 using a new instrument to assess lifetime trauma and victimization history. Results Abused and neglected individuals reported a higher number of traumas and victimization experiences than controls and all types of childhood victimization (physical abuse, sexual abuse, and neglect) were associated with increased risk for lifetime revictimization. Significant group (abuse/neglect versus control) by gender and group by race/ethnicity interactions were found. Childhood victimization increased risk for physical and sexual assault/abuse, kidnapping/stalking, and having a family friend murdered or commit suicide, but not for general traumas, witnessing trauma, or crime victimization. Conclusions These findings provide strong support for the need for early intervention with abused and neglected children and their families to prevent subsequent exposure to traumas and victimization experiences. PMID:18760474

  14. Corrosion Preventive Compounds Lifetime Testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hale, Stephanie M.; Kammerer, Catherine C.; Copp, Tracy L.

    2007-01-01

    Lifetime Testing of Corrosion Preventive Compounds (CPCs) was performed to quantify performance in the various environments to which the Space Shuttle Orbiter is exposed during a flight cycle. Three CPCs are approved for use on the Orbiter: RD Calcium Grease, Dinitrol AV-30, and Braycote 601 EF. These CPCs have been rigorously tested to prove that they mitigate corrosion in typical environments, but little information is available on how they perform in the unique combination of the coastal environment at the launch pad, the vacuum of low-earth orbit, and the extreme heat of reentry. Currently, there is no lifetime or reapplication schedule established for these compounds that is based on this combination of environmental conditions. Aluminum 2024 coupons were coated with the three CPCs and exposed to conditions that simulate the environments to which the Orbiter is exposed. Uncoated Aluminum 2024 coupons were exposed to the environmental conditions as a control. Visual inspection and Electro- Impedance Spectroscopy (EIS) were performed on the samples in order to determine the effectiveness of the CPCs. The samples were processed through five mission life cycles or until the visual inspection revealed the initiation of corrosion and EIS indicated severe degradation of the coating.

  15. Final report on reliability and lifetime prediction.

    SciTech Connect

    Gillen, Kenneth T; Wise, Jonathan; Jones, Gary D.

    2012-12-01

    This document highlights the important results obtained from the subtask of the Goodyear CRADA devoted to better understanding reliability of tires and to developing better lifetime prediction methods. The overall objective was to establish the chemical and physical basis for the degradation of tires using standard as well as unique models and experimental techniques. Of particular interest was the potential application of our unique modulus profiling apparatus for assessing tire properties and for following tire degradation. During the course of this complex investigation, extensive relevant information was generated, including experimental results, data analyses and development of models and instruments. Detailedmore » descriptions of the findings are included in this report.« less

  16. New detectors to explore the lifetime frontier

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chou, John Paul; Curtin, David; Lubatti, H. J.

    2017-04-01

    Long-lived particles (LLPs) are a common feature in many beyond the Standard Model theories, including supersymmetry, and are generically produced in exotic Higgs decays. Unfortunately, no existing or proposed search strategy will be able to observe the decay of non-hadronic electrically neutral LLPs with masses above ∼ GeV and lifetimes near the limit set by Big Bang Nucleosynthesis (BBN), cτ ≲107-108 m. We propose the MATHUSLA surface detector concept (MAssive Timing Hodoscope for Ultra Stable neutraL pArticles), which can be implemented with existing technology and in time for the high luminosity LHC upgrade to find such ultra-long-lived particles (ULLPs), whether produced in exotic Higgs decays or more general production modes. We also advocate a dedicated LLP detector at a future 100 TeV collider, where a modestly sized underground design can discover ULLPs with lifetimes at the BBN limit produced in sub-percent level exotic Higgs decays.

  17. Childhood blindness in India: a population based perspective

    PubMed Central

    Dandona, R; Dandona, L

    2003-01-01

    Aim: To estimate the prevalence and causes of blindness in children in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh. Methods: These data were obtained as part of two population based studies in which 6935 children ≤15 years of age participated. Blindness was defined as presenting distance visual acuity <6/60 in the better eye. Results: The prevalence of childhood blindness was 0.17% (95% confidence interval 0.09 to 0.30). Treatable refractive error caused 33.3% of the blindness, followed by 16.6% due to preventable causes (8.3% each due to vitamin A deficiency and amblyopia after cataract surgery). The major causes of the remaining blindness included congenital eye anomalies (16.7%) and retinal degeneration (16.7%). Conclusion: In the context of Vision 2020, the priorities for action to reduce childhood blindness in India are refractive error, cataract related amblyopia, and corneal diseases. PMID:12598433

  18. Unintentional drowning in northern Iran: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Kiakalayeh, Ali Davoudi; Mohammadi, Reza; Ekman, Diana Stark; Chabok, Shahrokh Yousefzade; Janson, Bjarne

    2008-11-01

    The Iranian Ministry of Health documented that about 1500 people died from drowning annually in Iran between years 2000 and 2001. This study is a descriptive, retrospective, population-based analysis of 342 unintentional drowning deaths occurring to residents and tourists in Guilan and Mazandran Provinces in Iran over a 1-year period (2005-2006), using multiple data sources. The findings from this study demonstrate that the drowning rate for residents of the study population, 4.24 per 100,000, is much higher than drowning rates for populations in developed economies in Europe. Risk factors for drowning in the study populations include male gender, young age, and swimming in unsupervised areas. Drownings occurred most frequently in rivers, followed by canals and lakes. While much more remains to be done to investigate the problems associated with drowning deaths and injuries in Iran, the information obtained from this study can help point the way to targeted interventions.

  19. Benzodiazepine use and risk of dementia: prospective population based study

    PubMed Central

    Bazin, Fabienne; Verdoux, Hélène; Dartigues, Jean-François; Pérès, Karine; Kurth, Tobias; Pariente, Antoine

    2012-01-01

    Objective To evaluate the association between use of benzodiazepines and incident dementia. Design Prospective, population based study. Setting PAQUID study, France. Participants 1063 men and women (mean age 78.2 years) who were free of dementia and did not start taking benzodiazepines until at least the third year of follow-up. Main outcome measures Incident dementia, confirmed by a neurologist. Results During a 15 year follow-up, 253 incident cases of dementia were confirmed. New use of benzodiazepines was associated with an increased risk of dementia (multivariable adjusted hazard ratio 1.60, 95% confidence interval 1.08 to 2.38). Sensitivity analysis considering the existence of depressive symptoms showed a similar association (hazard ratio 1.62, 1.08 to 2.43). A secondary analysis pooled cohorts of participants who started benzodiazepines during follow-up and evaluated the association with incident dementia. The pooled hazard ratio across the five cohorts of new benzodiazepine users was 1.46 (1.10 to 1.94). Results of a complementary nested case-control study showed that ever use of benzodiazepines was associated with an approximately 50% increase in the risk of dementia (adjusted odds ratio 1.55, 1.24 to 1.95) compared with never users. The results were similar in past users (odds ratio 1.56, 1.23 to 1.98) and recent users (1.48, 0.83 to 2.63) but reached significance only for past users. Conclusions In this prospective population based study, new use of benzodiazepines was associated with increased risk of dementia. The result was robust in pooled analyses across cohorts of new users of benzodiazepines throughout the study and in a complementary case-control study. Considering the extent to which benzodiazepines are prescribed and the number of potential adverse effects of this drug class in the general population, indiscriminate widespread use should be cautioned against. PMID:23045258

  20. Paracetamol intoxications: a retrospective population-based study in Iceland.

    PubMed

    Kjartansdottir, Ingibjörg; Bergmann, Ottar M; Arnadottir, Ragna S; Björnsson, Einar S

    2012-11-01

    Paracetamol is the most common cause of acute liver failure (ALF) in many countries. Much data on paracetamol toxicity originate from liver transplant centers and tertiary referral institutions. The authors analyzed the population-based annual incidence of paracetamol overdoses and ALF, and described the risk factors for hepatotoxicity. A search was undertaken for the diagnosis of paracetamol overdoses in the diagnoses registry of the National University Hospital of Iceland from 2004 to 2009 serving a population of 219,249 inhabitants. Relevant information was collected from medical records. A total of 1913 drug-related poisoning episodes were identified and reviewed, 352 (18%) involved paracetamol overdoses. The annual incidence of paracetamol overdoses declined from 30.0 (2004) to 16.0/100,000 per year (2009) (p < 0.05). The female/male ratio was 3.0 and the largest age group was 16-25 years. After the initial examination, 26% were discharged home. Hospitalized index visits were 182 with accidental overdoses constituting 16 (9%) with no gender difference. Compared with intentional overdose the accidental group had higher aminotransferases (p < 0.005). ALF occurred in 3.8% (7/182) of the index visits and the incidence was 0.7/100,000 per year. In the intentional group, 1.2% (2/163) developed ALF versus 25% (4/16) of the accidental group (p = 0.001). Only one patient died from ALF and none underwent liver transplantation. The annual incidence of paracetamol overdoses was high in this population-based study but declined. Young females with intentional overdose accounted for most of the cases, whereas accidental overdoses were more common in older patients. The occurrence of ALF was low and mostly associated with accidental overdose.

  1. Incidence of Radiologically Isolated Syndrome: A Population-Based Study.

    PubMed

    Forslin, Y; Granberg, T; Jumah, A Antwan; Shams, S; Aspelin, P; Kristoffersen-Wiberg, M; Martola, J; Fredrikson, S

    2016-06-01

    Incidental MR imaging findings resembling MS in asymptomatic individuals, fulfilling the Okuda criteria, are termed "radiologically isolated syndrome." Those with radiologically isolated syndrome are at high risk of their condition converting to MS. The epidemiology of radiologically isolated syndrome remains largely unknown, and there are no population-based studies, to our knowledge. Our aim was to study the population-based incidence of radiologically isolated syndrome in a high-incidence region for MS and to evaluate the effect on radiologically isolated syndrome incidence when revising the original radiologically isolated syndrome criteria by using the latest radiologic classification for dissemination in space. All 2272 brain MR imaging scans in 1907 persons obtained during 2013 in the Swedish county of Västmanland, with a population of 259,000 inhabitants, were blindly evaluated by a senior radiologist and a senior neuroradiologist. The Okuda criteria for radiologically isolated syndrome were applied by using both the Barkhof and Swanton classifications for dissemination in space. Assessments of clinical data were performed by a radiology resident and a senior neurologist. The cumulative incidence of radiologically isolated syndrome was 2 patients (0.1%), equaling an incidence rate of 0.8 cases per 100,000 person-years, in a region with an incidence rate of MS of 10.2 cases per 100,000 person-years. There was no difference in the radiologically isolated syndrome incidence rate when applying a modified version of the Okuda criteria by using the newer Swanton classification for dissemination in space. Radiologically isolated syndrome is uncommon in a high-incidence region for MS. Adapting the Okuda criteria to use the dissemination in space-Swanton classification may be feasible. Future studies on radiologically isolated syndrome may benefit from a collaborative approach to ensure adequate numbers of participants. © 2016 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

  2. Chest wall Ewing sarcoma: a population-based analysis.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Andrew J; Fishbein, Joanna; Levy, Carolyn Fein; Glick, Richard D

    2016-08-01

    The globally low incidence of pediatric chest wall Ewing sarcoma (CWES) has limited prior studies of this disease to mostly small, single-institution reviews. Our objective was to assess incidence, demographics, treatment patterns, and long-term survival of this disease through a population-based analysis. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database was used to identify patients aged 0-21 y diagnosed with CWES from 1973 to 2011. Patients were grouped by decade to assess changes in treatment patterns and outcomes. The effects of clinical, demographic, and treatment variables on overall survival (OS) were assessed by the computation of Kaplan-Meier curves and the log-rank test, with Cox proportional hazard regression used for multivariable analysis. A total of 193 pediatric patients with histologically confirmed CWES were identified. The disease was more common in men (61%), whites (92%), and 11- to 17-y olds (49%). It was metastatic at presentation in 37% of patients. When grouped approximately by decade, 10-y OS improved progressively from 38% in 1973-1979 to 65% in 2000-2011 (P = 0.033). The use of radiation decreased from 84% in the earliest period to 40% in the most recent, whereas the proportion of patients receiving surgery increased from 75% to 85%. When controlling for covariates in multivariable analysis, male patients were found to have a higher mortality than female patients (hazard ratio: 2.4; confidence interval: 1.4, 4.4; P = 0.0028). This population-based analysis of CWES demonstrated an impressive trend of improving OS, with increasing use of surgery and decreasing use of radiation therapy. Our study demonstrated a gender difference in survival of CWES, with females having a better prognosis. The presence of metastatic disease is a very important prognostic factor for this illness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. National nephrectomy registries: Reviewing the need for population-based data.

    PubMed

    Pearson, John; Williamson, Timothy; Ischia, Joseph; Bolton, Damien M; Frydenberg, Mark; Lawrentschuk, Nathan

    2015-09-01

    Nephrectomy is the cornerstone therapy for renal cell carcinoma (RCC) and continued refinement of the procedure through research may enhance patient outcomes. A national nephrectomy registry may provide the key information needed to assess the procedure at a national level. The aim of this study was to review nephrectomy data available at a population-based level in Australia and to benchmark these data against data from the rest of the world as an examination of the national nephrectomy registry model. A PubMed search identified records pertaining to RCC nephrectomy in Australia. A similar search identified records relating to established nephrectomy registries internationally and other surgical registries of clinical importance. These records were reviewed to address the stated aims of this article. Population-based data within Australia for nephrectomy were lacking. Key issues identified were the difficulty in benchmarking outcomes and no ongoing monitoring of trends. The care centralization debate, which questions whether small-volume centers provide comparable outcomes to high-volume centers, is ongoing. Patterns of adherence and the effectiveness of existing protocols are uncertain. A review of established international registries demonstrated that the registry model can effectively address issues comparable to those identified in the Australian literature. A national nephrectomy registry could address deficiencies identified in a given nation's nephrectomy field. The model is supported by evidence from international examples and will provide the population-based data needed for studies. Scope exists for possible integration with other registries to develop a more encompassing urological or surgical registry. Need remains for further exploration of the feasibility and practicalities of initiating such a registry including a minimum data set, outcome indicators, and auditing of data.

  4. Prediction of death for extremely premature infants in a population-based cohort.

    PubMed

    Lee, Henry Chong; Green, Charles; Hintz, Susan R; Tyson, Jon E; Parikh, Nehal A; Langer, John; Gould, Jeffrey B

    2010-09-01

    Although gestational age (GA) is often used as the primary basis for counseling and decision-making for extremely premature infants, a study of tertiary care centers showed that additional factors could improve prediction of outcomes. Our objective was to determine how such a model could improve predictions for a population-based cohort. From 2005 to 2008, data were collected prospectively for the California Perinatal Quality Care Collaborative, which encompasses 90% of NICUs in California. For infants born at GAs of 22 to 25 weeks, we assessed the ability of the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development 5-factor model to predict survival rates, compared with a model using GA alone. In the study cohort of 4527 infants, 3647 received intensive care. Survival rates were 53% for the whole cohort and 66% for infants who received intensive care. In multivariate analyses of data for infants who received intensive care, prenatal steroid exposure, female sex, singleton birth, and higher birth weight (per 100-g increment) were each associated with a reduction in the risk of death before discharge similar to that for a 1-week increase in GA. The multivariate model increased the ability to group infants in the highest and lowest risk categories (mortality rates of >80% and <20%, respectively). In a population-based cohort, the addition of prenatal steroid exposure, sex, singleton or multiple birth, and birth weight to GA allowed for improved prediction of rates of survival to discharge for extremely premature infants.

  5. Lifetime physical activity and female stress urinary incontinence.

    PubMed

    Nygaard, Ingrid E; Shaw, Janet M; Bardsley, Tyler; Egger, Marlene J

    2015-07-01

    We sought to estimate whether moderate/severe stress urinary incontinence (SUI) in middle-aged women is associated with overall lifetime physical activity (including leisure, household, outdoor, and occupational), as well as lifetime leisure (recreational), lifetime strenuous, and strenuous activity during the teen years. Recruitment for this case-control study was conducted in primary-care-level family medicine and gynecology clinics. A total of 1538 enrolled women ages 39-65 years underwent a Pelvic Organ Prolapse Quantification examination to assess vaginal support. Based on Incontinence Severity Index scores, cases had moderate/severe and controls had no/mild SUI. We excluded 349 with vaginal descent at/below the hymen (pelvic organ prolapse), 194 who did not return questionnaires, and 110 with insufficient activity data for analysis. In all, 213 cases were frequency matched 1:1 by age group to controls. Physical activity was measured using the Lifetime Physical Activity Questionnaire, in which women recall activity from menarche to present. We created separate multivariable logistic regression models for activity measures. SUI odds increased slightly with overall lifetime activity (odds ratio [OR], 1.20 per 70 additional metabolic equivalent of task-h/wk; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.41), and were not associated with lifetime strenuous activity (OR, 1.11; 95% CI, 0.99-1.25). In quintile analysis of lifetime leisure activity, which demonstrated a nonlinear pattern, all quintiles incurred about half the odds of SUI compared to reference (second quintile; P = .009). Greater strenuous activity in teen years modestly increased SUI odds (OR, 1.37 per 7 additional h/wk; 95% CI, 1.09-1.71); OR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.15-2.66 in sensitivity analysis adjusting for measurement error. The predicted probability of SUI rose linearly in women exceeding 7.5 hours of strenuous activity/wk during teen years. Teen strenuous activity had a similar effect on SUI odds when

  6. Psychosocial factors and low back pain, consultations, and sick leave among farmers and rural referents: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Holmberg, Sara; Thelin, Anders; Stiernström, Eva-Lena; Svärdsudd, Kurt

    2004-09-01

    Farmers have more low back pain (LBP) than nonfarmers. In a previous report, we found that differences between farmers and nonfarmers in physical work exposure did not explain the LBP differences. In this report, we tested the hypothesis that psychosocial factors might explain the differences in LBP reporting, medical consultation, and sick leave. A cross-sectional population-based survey of 1,013 middle-aged farmers and 769 matched referents was performed. Data on LBP, consultations, and sick leave during lifetime was obtained along with information on psychosocial, social network, and lifestyle variables. Several of the psychosocial variables were associated with LBP but the difference in LBP prevalence between farmers and nonfarmers could be explained only marginally. Farmers and self-employed referents tended to have lower odds of sick leave because of LBP than employed referents after adjustment for psychosocial factors.

  7. Spectrally resolved fluorescent lifetime imaging

    PubMed Central

    Hanley, Quentin S.

    2008-01-01

    Placing an imaging spectrograph or related components capable of generating a spectrum between a microscope and the image intensifier of a conventional fluorescence lifetime imaging (FLIM) system creates a spectrally resolved FLIM (SFLIM). This arrangement provides a number of opportunities not readily available to conventional systems using bandpass filters. The examples include: simultaneous viewing of multiple fluorophores; tracking of both the donor and acceptor; and observation of a range of spectroscopic changes invisible to the conventional FLIM systems. In the frequency-domain implementation of the method, variation in the fractional contributions from different fluorophores along the wavelength dimension can behave as a surrogate for a frequency sweep or spatial variations while analysing fluorophore mixtures. This paper reviews the development of the SFLIM method, provides a theoretical and practical overview of frequency-domain SFLIM including: presentation of the data; manifestations of energy transfer; observation of multiple fluorophores; and the limits of single frequency methods.

  8. Microfabricated microporous membranes reduce the host immune response and prolong the functional lifetime of a closed-loop insulin delivery implant in a type 1 diabetic rat model.

    PubMed

    Li, Jason; Chu, Michael K L; Gordijo, Claudia R; Abbasi, Azhar Z; Chen, Kuan; Adissu, Hibret A; Löhn, Matthias; Giacca, Adria; Plettenburg, Oliver; Wu, Xiao Yu

    2015-04-01

    Implantation of a medical implant within the body inevitably triggers a host inflammatory response that negatively impacts its function and longevity. Nevertheless, the degree and severity of this response may be reduced by selecting appropriate materials, implant geometry, surface topography and surface treatment. Here we demonstrate a strategy to improve the biocompatibility of a chemically-driven closed-loop insulin delivery implant. A microfabricated microporous, poly(ethylene glycol)-grafted polydimethylsiloxane membrane was placed on top of the glucose-responsive insulin release plug of the implant. Implant biocompatibility was assessed in healthy rats while implant function was evaluated in a type 1 diabetic rat model. The microporous membrane with a small distance to the plug provided a geometric barrier to inflammatory cell migration and prevented leukocyte-mediated degradation of the plug for at least 30 days. Membrane-protected devices elicited a significantly milder inflammatory response and formation of a well-defined fibrous capsule at the device opening compared to unprotected devices. The device's glucose-responsiveness was nearly unchanged, although the insulin release rate decreased with decreasing pore size. The microporous membrane improved biocompatibility and prolonged in vivo efficacy of the implant by ∼3-fold. This work suggests the importance of implant design in modulating inflammatory response and thereby extending the functional duration of the implant. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Accelerated lifetime test of vibration isolator made of Metal Rubber material

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ao, Hongrui; Ma, Yong; Wang, Xianbiao; Chen, Jianye; Jiang, Hongyuan

    2017-01-01

    The Metal Rubber material (MR) is a kind of material with nonlinear damping characteristics for its application in the field of aerospace, petrochemical industry and so on. The study on the lifetime of MR material is impendent to its application in engineering. Based on the dynamic characteristic of MR, the accelerated lifetime experiments of vibration isolators made of MR working under random vibration load were conducted. The effects of structural parameters of MR components on the lifetime of isolators were studied and modelled with the fitting curves of degradation data. The lifetime prediction methods were proposed based on the models.

  10. Influences on lifetime of wire ropes in traction lifts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vogel, W.

    2016-05-01

    Traction lifts are complex systems with rotating and translating moving masses, springs and dampers and several system inputs from the lifts and the users. The wire ropes are essential mechanical elements. The mechanical properties of the ropes in use depend on the rope construction, the load situation, nonlinearities and the lift dimensions. The mechanical properties are important for the proper use in lifts and the ride quality. But first of all the wire ropes (for all other suspension means as well) have to satisfy the safety relevant requirements sufficient lifetime, reliable determination of discard and sufficient and limited traction capacity. The lifetime of the wire ropes better the number of trips until rope discard depends on a lot of parameters of the rope and the rope application eg use of plastic deflection sheaves and reverse bending layouts. New challenges for rope lifetime are resulting from the more or less open D/d-ratio limits possible by certificates concerning the examination of conformity by notified bodies. This paper will highlight the basics of wire rope technology, the endurance and lifetime of wire ropes running over sheaves, and the different influences from the ropes and more and more important from the lift application parameters. Very often underestimated are the influences of transport, storage, installation and maintenance. With this background we will lead over to the calculation methods of wire rope lifetime considering the actual findings of wire rope endurance research. We'll show in this paper new and innovative facts as the influence of rope length and size factor in the lifetime formular, the reduction of lifetime caused by traction grooves, the new model for the calculation in reverse bending operations and the statistically firmed possibilities for machine roomless lifts (MRL) under very small bending conditions.

  11. Magnetic Flux Transport on Active Cool Stars and Starspot Lifetimes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isik, E.; Schüssler, M.; Solanki, S. K.

    2006-08-01

    Rapidly rotating cool stars are known to have large magnetic regions at mid- to high-latitudes. Mid-latitude starspots and magnetic regions have characteristic lifetimes on the order of one month as observed using (Zeeman-) Doppler imaging techniques. The structure and detailed morphology of starspots are not observable at present. In this study, we present numerical simulations of the surface transport of bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) and magnetic spots on stars which have radii and surface rotational shears of AB Doradus, the Sun, and the HR 1099 primary. The surface flux transport model is based on the magnetic induction equation for radial fields under the effects of surface differential rotation, meridional flow, and turbulent diffusion due to supergranulation. We calculate flux evolution and lifetimes of BMRs with different emergence latitudes, surface shear rates, and tilt angles. For BMRs comparable to the largest ones on the Sun, we find that varying the surface flows and tilt angle modifies the lifetimes over a range of a month. For very large BMRs (area fraction ~ 0.1) the assumption of Joy's law for the tilt angle - as compared to the case with zero tilt - leads to a significant increase of lifetime. Such regions can evolve to form circumpolar spots that live more than a year. Taking the observed weak latitudinal shear and the radius of the active subgiant component of HR 1099, we find longer BMR lifetimes as compared to the more strongly sheared AB Dor case. We have also considered the effect on decay and lifetimes of starspots if they are monolithic or a conglomerate of smaller spots of similar total size. We find these different configurations differ neither in their decay patterns, nor in their lifetimes. We also give an analytical explanation for the linear decay of magnetic flux in the monolithic-spot simulation.

  12. The surgical management of kidney stone disease: a population based time series analysis.

    PubMed

    Ordon, Michael; Urbach, David; Mamdani, Muhammad; Saskin, Refik; D'A Honey, R John; Pace, Kenneth T

    2014-11-01

    We evaluate population based trends in the use of extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy, ureteroscopy and percutaneous nephrolithotomy during the last 20 years, as well as assess the re-treatment rate and morbidity from treatment over time. Using administrative databases in the province of Ontario, Canada, a population based cross-sectional time series analysis was performed between July 1, 1991 and December 31, 2010. All extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy, ureteroscopy and percutaneous nephrolithotomy procedures were identified, along with all hospital readmissions and emergency department visits within 7 days of treatment. The primary outcome was treatment use, and secondary outcomes were the need for ancillary treatment and hospital readmission or emergency department visit after treatment. Exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to assess trends over time. We identified 194,781 kidney stone treatments performed during the study period. Time series modeling revealed a significant increase in the use of ureteroscopy over time (25% to 59% of all procedures, p <0.0001) and a reciprocal decrease in the use of extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy (69% to 34% of all procedures, p <0.0001). A corresponding significant decrease in the need for ancillary treatment over time (23% to 15%, p <0.0001) and increase in the need for hospital readmission (7% to 11%, p <0.0001) or emergency department visit (7% to 11%, p=0.0024) after treatment were also demonstrated. Our population based study demonstrates a shift in the treatment paradigm with increased use of ureteroscopy over time and a reciprocal decrease in the use of extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy. We also observed a corresponding decrease in ancillary treatment and increase in posttreatment morbidity over time. Copyright © 2014 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Inhomogeneous dephasing masks coherence lifetimes in ensemble measurements.

    PubMed

    Pelzer, Kenley M; Griffin, Graham B; Gray, Stephen K; Engel, Gregory S

    2012-04-28

    An open question at the forefront of modern physical sciences is what role, if any, quantum effects may play in biological sensing and energy transport mechanisms. One area of such research concerns the possibility of coherent energy transport in photosynthetic systems. Spectroscopic evidence of long-lived quantum coherence in photosynthetic light-harvesting pigment protein complexes (PPCs), along with theoretical modeling of PPCs, has indicated that coherent energy transport might boost efficiency of energy transport in photosynthesis. Accurate assessment of coherence lifetimes is crucial for modeling the extent to which quantum effects participate in this energy transfer, because such quantum effects can only contribute to mechanisms proceeding on timescales over which the coherences persist. While spectroscopy is a useful way to measure coherence lifetimes, inhomogeneity in the transition energies across the measured ensemble may lead to underestimation of coherence lifetimes from spectroscopic experiments. Theoretical models of antenna complexes generally model a single system, and direct comparison of single system models to ensemble averaged experimental data may lead to systematic underestimation of coherence lifetimes, distorting much of the current discussion. In this study, we use simulations of the Fenna-Matthews-Olson complex to model single complexes as well as averaged ensembles to demonstrate and roughly quantify the effect of averaging over an inhomogeneous ensemble on measured coherence lifetimes. We choose to model the Fenna-Matthews-Olson complex because that system has been a focus for much of the recent discussion of quantum effects in biology, and use an early version of the well known environment-assisted quantum transport model to facilitate straightforward comparison between the current model and past work. Although ensemble inhomogeneity is known to lead to shorter lifetimes of observed oscillations (simply inhomogeneous spectral

  14. Scaling Laws for the Lifetimes of Governments in the Sznajd Democracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Johannes J.; Hirtreiter, Christian

    We investigate the lifetimes of governments in the original and a randomized one-dimensional Sznajd model. We find various scaling laws for the lifetime of the democracy and for the reigning time of governments in this model, depending on the system size N.

  15. Nonsuicidal self-harm in youth: a population-based survey

    PubMed Central

    Nixon, Mary K.; Cloutier, Paula; Jansson, S. Mikael

    2008-01-01

    Background Nonsuicidal self-harm includes cutting, scratching, burning and minor overdosing. There have been few studies that have examined the rate of self-harm and mental-health correlates among community-based youth. We performed a population-based study to determine the prevalence of nonsuicidal self-harm, its mental-health correlates and help-seeking behaviour. Methods We used data from the Victoria Healthy Youth Survey, a population-based longitudinal survey of youth aged 14–21 in Victoria, British Columbia. The survey included questions about the history, method, frequency, age of onset and help-seeking for nonsuicidal self-harm. Youth were interviewed between February and June 2005. Univariable group differences were analyzed using students t test for continuous data and χ2 for binary or categorical data. Multivariate analyses were conducted by use of multivariate analysis of variance and logistic regression. Results Ninety-six of 568 (16.9%) youth indicated that they had ever harmed themselves. Self-injuries such as cutting, scratching and self-hitting were the most common forms of nonsuicidal self-harm (83.2%). The mean age of onset was 15.2 years. Of those who reported nonsuicidal self-harm, 56% had sought help for this behaviour. Participants who reported 5 or more symptoms (out of 6) in a given symptom category were more likely than those who reported less than 5 symptoms to report nonsuicidal self-harm for the following categories: depressive mood (odds ratio [OR] 2.18, confidence interval [CI] 1.28–3.7) and problems with regulation of attention, impulsivity and activity (OR 2.24, CI 1.33–3.76). Interpretation We found a high lifetime prevalence of nonsuicidal self-harm. Many mental-health symptoms were associated with this behaviour, particularly those with depressive mood and attention-related problems. Just over half of youth reported seeking help for nonsuicidal self-harm. Clinicians who encounter youth should be vigilant to assess for this

  16. Epilepsy beyond seizure: a population-based study of comorbidities.

    PubMed

    Selassie, Anbesaw W; Wilson, Dulaney A; Martz, Gabriel U; Smith, Georgette G; Wagner, Janelle L; Wannamaker, Braxton B

    2014-02-01

    Comorbid conditions may affect the quality of life in persons with epilepsy (PWE) more than seizures. Using legally mandated healthcare encounter data, somatic, psychiatric, and neurodevelopmental comorbidities in a large population-based cohort of PWE, were compared to persons with migraine (PWM), a similar neurologic condition, and lower extremity fracture (PWLF), otherwise healthy controls. 64,188 PWE, 121,990 PWM, and 89,808 PWLF were identified from inpatient, outpatient, and emergency department from 2000 to 2011. Epilepsy was ascertained with ICD-9-CM code 345; migraine with 346; fracture of the tibia, fibula, and ankle with 823 and 824. Common comorbidities of epilepsy were identified from the literature. Differences in prevalence among PWE, PWM, and PWLF were assessed by comparison of 95% confidence intervals (CI) constructed under the assumption of independence and normal approximation. The association of the comorbid conditions with epilepsy and migraine, compared to lower extremity fracture, were evaluated with polytomous logistic regression controlling for demographic and mortality covariables. PWE had significantly elevated prevalence of comorbidities compared with PWM and PWLF. Compared with PWLF, the adjusted odds ratios (OR) of having both somatic and psychiatric/neurodevelopmental comorbidities were 5.44 (95% CI=5.25-5.63) and 2.49 (95% CI=2.42-2.55) in PWE and PWM, respectively. The association with epilepsy was the strongest for cognitive dysfunction (OR=28.1; 95% CI=23.3-33.8); autism spectrum disorders (OR=22.2; 95% CI=16.8-29.3); intellectual disability (OR=12.9; 95% CI=11.6-14.3); and stroke (OR=4.2; 95% CI=4.1-4.4). The absolute risk increase in PWE compared with PWM for any somatic or psychiatric/neurodevelopmental comorbidity was 58.8% and 94.3%, respectively. Identifying comorbidities that are strongly and consistently associated with seizures, particularly disorders with shared underlying pathophysiology, is critical in identifying

  17. Systems and methods for circuit lifetime evaluation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heaps, Timothy L. (Inventor); Sheldon, Douglas J. (Inventor); Bowerman, Paul N. (Inventor); Everline, Chester J. (Inventor); Shalom, Eddy (Inventor); Rasmussen, Robert D. (Inventor)

    2013-01-01

    Systems and methods for estimating the lifetime of an electrical system in accordance with embodiments of the invention are disclosed. One embodiment of the invention includes iteratively performing Worst Case Analysis (WCA) on a system design with respect to different system lifetimes using a computer to determine the lifetime at which the worst case performance of the system indicates the system will pass with zero margin or fail within a predetermined margin for error given the environment experienced by the system during its lifetime. In addition, performing WCA on a system with respect to a specific system lifetime includes identifying subcircuits within the system, performing Extreme Value Analysis (EVA) with respect to each subcircuit to determine whether the subcircuit fails EVA for the specific system lifetime, when the subcircuit passes EVA, determining that the subcircuit does not fail WCA for the specified system lifetime, when a subcircuit fails EVA performing at least one additional WCA process that provides a tighter bound on the WCA than EVA to determine whether the subcircuit fails WCA for the specified system lifetime, determining that the system passes WCA with respect to the specific system lifetime when all subcircuits pass WCA, and determining that the system fails WCA when at least one subcircuit fails WCA.

  18. Microstructural Characterization of Thin Polyimide Films by Positron Lifetime Spectroscopy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Eftekhari, A.; St.Clair, A. K.; Stoakley, D. M.; Sprinkle, Danny R.; Singh, J. J.

    1996-01-01

    Positron lifetimes have been measured in a series of thin aromatic polyimide films. No evidence of positronium formation was observed in any of the films investigated. All test films exhibited only two positron lifetime components, the longer component corresponding to the positrons annihilating at shallow traps. Based on these trapped positron lifetimes, free volume fractions have been calculated for all the films tested. A free volume model has been developed to calculate the dielectric constants of thin polyimide films. The experimental and the calculated values for the dielectric constants of the films tested are in reasonably good agreement. It has been further noted that the presence of bulky CF(sub 3) groups and meta linkages in the polyimide structure results in higher free volume fraction and, consequently, lower dielectric constant values for the films studied.

  19. Photovoltaic lifetime and degradation science statistical pathway development: acrylic degradation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruckman, Laura S.; Wheeler, Nicholas R.; Kidd, Ian V.; Sun, Jiayang; French, Roger H.

    2013-09-01

    In order to optimize and extend the life of photovoltaics (PV) modules, scienti c and mechanistic statistical analytics must be performed on a large sample of materials, components and systems. Statistically signi - cant relationships were investigated between di erent mechanistically based variables to develop a statistical pathway diagram for the degradation of acrylic that is important in concentrating photovoltaics. The statisti- cally signi cant relationships were investigated using lifetime and degradation science using a domain knowledge semi-supervised generalized structural equation modeling (semi-gSEM. Predictive analytics and prognostics are informed from the statistical pathway diagram in order to predictively understand the lifetime of PV modules in di erent stress conditions and help with these critical lifetime technologies.

  20. Screening and cervical cancer cure: population based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Andersson, Therese M-L; Lambert, Paul C; Kemetli, Levent; Silfverdal, Lena; Strander, Björn; Ryd, Walter; Dillner, Joakim; Törnberg, Sven; Sparén, Pär

    2012-01-01

    Objective To determine whether detection of invasive cervical cancer by screening results in better prognosis or merely increases the lead time until death. Design Nationwide population based cohort study. Setting Sweden. Participants All 1230 women with cervical cancer diagnosed during 1999-2001 in Sweden prospectively followed up for an average of 8.5 years. Main outcome measures Cure proportions and five year relative survival ratios, stratified by screening history, mode of detection, age, histopathological type, and FIGO (International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics) stage. Results In the screening ages, the cure proportion for women with screen detected invasive cancer was 92% (95% confidence interval 75% to 98%) and for symptomatic women was 66% (62% to 70%), a statistically significant difference in cure of 26% (16% to 36%). Among symptomatic women, the cure proportion was significantly higher for those who had been screened according to recommendations (interval cancers) than among those overdue for screening: difference in cure 14% (95% confidence interval 6% to 23%). Cure proportions were similar for all histopathological types except small cell carcinomas and were closely related to FIGO stage. A significantly higher cure proportion for screen detected cancers remained after adjustment for stage at diagnosis (difference 15%, 7% to 22%). Conclusions Screening is associated with improved cure of cervical cancer. Confounding cannot be ruled out, but the effect was not attributable to lead time bias and was larger than what is reflected by down-staging. Evaluations of screening programmes should consider the assessment of cure proportions. PMID:22381677

  1. Chronic joint symptoms in adults: A population-based study.

    PubMed

    Morais, Silvia Helena de Oliveira; Segheto, Wellington; Silva, Danielle Cristina Guimarães da; Coelho, France Araújo; Reis, Vanessa Guimarães; Ferreira, Fabrícia Geralda; Martinho, Karina Oliveira; Rocha, Anna Lígia Cabral da; Pessoa, Milene Cristine; Longo, Giana Zarbato

    2017-07-01

    To analyze factors associated with chronic joint symptoms (CJS) in adults. A population-based, cross-sectional study was performed with a sample of 1,217 adults aged between 20 and 59 years, in the city of Viçosa, in 2014. The sampling process was performed by conglomerates and sample was selected using a two-stage cluster-sampling scheme. First, 30 of the 99 census tracts of Viçosa were randomly selected using a random sampling scheme, without replacement. Household questionnaires were applied to obtain CJS data, sociodemographic conditions, behavioral factors and health status. Multivariable analysis was conducted using Poisson regression, adjusted for the sampling design effect, using the svy commands in Stata software. Prevalence of CJS totaled 31.27%, significantly higher in women (18.45). Age ranges 40-49 (PR 1.50; 95CI 1.16-1.92) and 50-59 years (PR 1.55; 95CI 1.07-2.25); overweight (PR 1.60; 95CI 1.28-2.00); obesity (PR 1.60; 95CI 1.11-2.29); and those who self-reported performing heavy work (PR 1.27; 95CI 1.09-1.48) showed higher prevalences of CJS. Women and individuals who were older, overweight and performing heavy work had a higher risk of CJS in this adult population residing in Viçosa, MG, Brazil.

  2. Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis in Catalonia: a population based study.

    PubMed

    Pradas, Jesús; Puig, Teresa; Rojas-García, Ricard; Viguera, María Luisa; Gich, Ignasi; Logroscino, Giancarlo

    2013-05-01

    Our objective was to determine the incidence and clinical-epidemiological characteristics of an ALS cohort patient in Catalonia (Spain). We conducted a population based registry for a three-year period (1999-2001) in Catalonia (6,361,365 inhabitants) using several sources of information. The original El Escorial diagnostic criteria (1994) for ALS were applied for the classification of patients. New cases diagnosed between 1 January 1999 and 31 December 2001 were 215 (118 males and 97 females), with an annual crude incidence rate of 1.4/100,000 (95% CI 1.3-1.8). This rate showed a peak age between 75 and 79 years. The incidence rate was 1.6 (95% CI 1.5-2.2) in males and 1.2 (95% CI 1.1-1.7) in females. Prevalence at the end of the period was 5.4/100,000 of the total population. Median age at onset was 64.3 years. Onset of symptoms was bulbar or generalized in 38% of cases. Mean disease duration at diagnosis was 11.0 months. Median time of survival from onset was 30.8 months. In conclusion, ALS incidence in Catalonia is within the range of other countries across Europe with different geographic, environmental and socioeconomic situations. However, as in other studies conducted in the Mediterranean area, Catalonia incidence is in the lower range of rates in Europe.

  3. Association of sialolithiasis with cholelithiasis: A population-based study.

    PubMed

    Hung, Shih-Han; Lin, Herng-Ching; Su, Chin-Hui; Chung, Shiu-Dong

    2016-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between cholelithiasis and developing sialolithiasis using a population-based coverage database. The data for this study were sourced from the Taiwan Longitudinal Health Insurance Database. We included 745 subjects with sialolithiasis as cases and 3725 sex-matched and age-matched subjects without sialolithiasis as controls. Chi-square test revealed a significant difference in the prevalence of prior cholelithiasis between the cases and controls (8.6% vs 4.1%; p < .001). Furthermore, conditional logistic regression analysis indicated that the odds ratio (OR) of prior cholelithiasis for the cases was 2.19 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.62-2.98) when compared with the controls after adjusting for monthly income, geographic location, urbanization level, and tobacco use disorder. The adjusted OR of prior cholelithiasis for cases was 2.20 (95% CI = 1.46-3.33) and 2.15 (95% CI = 1.38-3.42) than controls for men and women, respectively. This study demonstrates an association between sialolithiasis and cholelithiasis. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. The economics of celiac disease: a population-based study

    PubMed Central

    LONG, K. H.; RUBIO-TAPIA, A.; WAGIE, A. E.; MELTON, L. J.; LAHR, B. D.; VAN DYKE, C. T.; MURRAY, J. A.

    2010-01-01

    Background Despite increasing prevalence, the economic implications of celiac disease (CD) are just emerging. We assessed the impact of CD diagnosis on healthcare costs and the incremental costs associated with CD. Methods Administrative data for a population-based cohort of CD cases and matched controls from Olmsted County, Minnesota was used to compare 1) direct medical costs 1 year pre- and post-CD diagnosis for 133 index cases and 2) 4-year cumulative direct medical costs incurred by 153 index cases versus 153 controls. Analyses exclude diagnostic-related and outpatient pharmaceutical costs. Results Average total costs were reduced by $1,764 in the year following diagnosis (pre-diagnosis cost of $5,023 vs. $3,259; 95% CI of difference: $688 to $2,993). Over a 4-year period, CD cases experienced higher outpatient costs (mean difference of $1,457; P = 0.016) and higher total costs than controls (mean difference of $3,964; P = 0.053). Excess average total costs were concentrated among males with CD ($14,191 vs. $4,019 for male controls; 95% CI of difference: $2,334 to $20,309). Conclusions CD-associated costs indicate a significant economic burden of disease, particularly for diseased males. Diagnosis and treatment of CD reduces medical costs of care suggesting an economic advantage to earlier detection and treatment. PMID:20384611

  5. Calcium intake by adolescents: a population-based health survey.

    PubMed

    de Assumpção, Daniela; Dias, Marcia Regina Messaggi Gomes; de Azevedo Barros, Marilisa Berti; Fisberg, Regina Mara; de Azevedo Barros Filho, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    To analyze calcium intake in adolescents according to sociodemographic variables, health-related behaviors, morbidities, and body mass index. This was a cross-sectional population-based study, with a two-stage cluster sampling that used data from a survey conducted in Campinas, São Paulo, Brazil, between 2008 and 2009. Food intake was assessed using a 24-hour dietary recall. The study included 913 adolescents aged 10-19 years. Average nutrient intake was significantly lower in the segment with lower education of the head of the family and lower per capita family income, in individuals from other cities or states, those who consumed fruit less than four times a week, those who did not drink milk daily, those who were smokers, and those who reported the occurrence of headaches and dizziness. Higher mean calcium intake was found in individuals that slept less than seven hours a day. The prevalence of calcium intake below the recommendation was 88.6% (95% CI: 85.4-91.2). The results alert to an insufficient calcium intake and suggest that certain subgroups of adolescents need specific strategies to increase the intake of this nutrient. Copyright © 2015 Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria. Published by Elsevier Editora Ltda. All rights reserved.

  6. Screening and cervical cancer cure: population based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Andrae, Bengt; Andersson, Therese M-L; Lambert, Paul C; Kemetli, Levent; Silfverdal, Lena; Strander, Björn; Ryd, Walter; Dillner, Joakim; Törnberg, Sven; Sparén, Pär

    2012-03-01

    To determine whether detection of invasive cervical cancer by screening results in better prognosis or merely increases the lead time until death. Nationwide population based cohort study. Sweden. All 1230 women with cervical cancer diagnosed during 1999-2001 in Sweden prospectively followed up for an average of 8.5 years. Cure proportions and five year relative survival ratios, stratified by screening history, mode of detection, age, histopathological type, and FIGO (International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics) stage. In the screening ages, the cure proportion for women with screen detected invasive cancer was 92% (95% confidence interval 75% to 98%) and for symptomatic women was 66% (62% to 70%), a statistically significant difference in cure of 26% (16% to 36%). Among symptomatic women, the cure proportion was significantly higher for those who had been screened according to recommendations (interval cancers) than among those overdue for screening: difference in cure 14% (95% confidence interval 6% to 23%). Cure proportions were similar for all histopathological types except small cell carcinomas and were closely related to FIGO stage. A significantly higher cure proportion for screen detected cancers remained after adjustment for stage at diagnosis (difference 15%, 7% to 22%). Screening is associated with improved cure of cervical cancer. Confounding cannot be ruled out, but the effect was not attributable to lead time bias and was larger than what is reflected by down-staging. Evaluations of screening programmes should consider the assessment of cure proportions.

  7. Optimal inverse functions created via population-based optimization.

    PubMed

    Jennings, Alan L; Ordóñez, Raúl

    2014-06-01

    Finding optimal inputs for a multiple-input, single-output system is taxing for a system operator. Population-based optimization is used to create sets of functions that produce a locally optimal input based on a desired output. An operator or higher level planner could use one of the functions in real time. For the optimization, each agent in the population uses the cost and output gradients to take steps lowering the cost while maintaining their current output. When an agent reaches an optimal input for its current output, additional agents are generated in the output gradient directions. The new agents then settle to the local optima for the new output values. The set of associated optimal points forms an inverse function, via spline interpolation, from a desired output to an optimal input. In this manner, multiple locally optimal functions can be created. These functions are naturally clustered in input and output spaces allowing for a continuous inverse function. The operator selects the best cluster over the anticipated range of desired outputs and adjusts the set point (desired output) while maintaining optimality. This reduces the demand from controlling multiple inputs, to controlling a single set point with no loss in performance. Results are demonstrated on a sample set of functions and on a robot control problem.

  8. SU-F-T-202: An Evaluation Method of Lifetime Attributable Risk for Comparing Between Proton Beam Therapy and Intensity Modulated X-Ray Therapy for Pediatric Cancer Patients by Averaging Four Dose-Response Models for Carcinoma Induction

    SciTech Connect

    Tamura, M; Shirato, H; Ito, Y

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To examine how much lifetime attributable risk (LAR) as an in silico surrogate marker of radiation-induced secondary cancer would be lowered by using proton beam therapy (PBT) in place of intensity modulated x-ray therapy (IMXT) in pediatric patients. Methods: From 242 pediatric patients with cancers who were treated with PBT, 26 patients were selected by random sampling after stratification into four categories: a) brain, head, and neck, b) thoracic, c) abdominal, and d) whole craniospinal (WCNS) irradiation. IMXT was re-planned using the same computed tomography and region of interest. Using dose volume histogram (DVH) of PBT and IMXT, themore » LAR of Schneider et al. was calculated for the same patient. The published four dose-response models for carcinoma induction: i) full model, ii) bell-shaped model, iii) plateau model, and ix) linear model were tested for organs at risk. In the case that more than one dose-response model was available, the LAR for this patient was calculated by averaging LAR for each dose-response model. Results: Calculation of the LARs of PBT and IMXT based on DVH was feasible for all patients. The mean±standard deviation of the cumulative LAR difference between PBT and IMXT for the four categories was a) 0.77±0.44% (n=7, p=0.0037), b) 23.1±17.2%,(n=8, p=0.0067), c) 16.4±19.8% (n=8, p=0.0525), and d) 49.9±21.2% (n=3, p=0.0275, one tailed t-test), respectively. The LAR was significantly lower by PBT than IMXT for the the brain, head, and neck region, thoracic region, and whole craniospinal irradiation. Conclusion: In pediatric patients who had undergone PBT, the LAR of PBT was significantly lower than the LAR of IMXT estimated by in silico modeling. This method was suggested to be useful as an in silico surrogate marker of secondary cancer induced by different radiotherapy techniques. This research was supported by the Translational Research Network Program, JSPS KAKENHI Grant No. 15H04768 and the Global Institution for

  9. Adherence to clinical preventive services guidelines: Population-based online randomized trial.

    PubMed

    Evans, W Douglas; Lantz, Paula M; Mead, Katherine; Alvarez, Carmen; Snider, Jeremy

    2015-12-01

    The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ACA) addresses use of clinical preventive services relative to evidence-based guidelines by mandating that most health insurance plans provide coverage without cost-sharing for services that receive an A or B rating. However, knowledge about and positive attitudes towards guidelines are extremely low. This study was a population-based randomized experiment to examine beliefs about and intentions to adhere to screening guidelines for the Prostate Specific Antigen (PSA) and Pap tests. The study had two objectives: (1) test reactions to and understanding of guidelines, and (2) experimentally compare receptivity to messages to promote PSA and Pap test recommendations. We first surveyed a population-based sample of (1) US adults age 18 and over, (2) subsample of women aged 65 or younger, (3) subsample of men aged 40 or older. A sample of 2923 completed an initial questionnaire. Next a subset of participants meeting eligibility criteria were recruited from the population-based sample into a message testing experiment: (1) women aged 65 or younger, (2) and men aged 40 or older. Participants meeting these eligibility requirements were randomized to gain, loss, or balanced PSA (men) or Pap test (women) message stimulus conditions and followed for 8 weeks. Data were collected through the GfK Custom Research panel. A total of 2401 were eligible, 2321 completed the baseline, and 1730 completed follow up. Mixed effect regression models revealed that higher receptivity to messages was associated with greater intentions to seek cancer information and to speak to a Doctor about PSA and Pap tests. The loss frame was associated with higher intentions to speak to friends and family about PSA and Pap tests. Finally, perceived importance and personal understanding of guidelines predicted intentions to seek more information about them. This study contributes to evidence on how best to inform and engage consumers regarding preventive

  10. Alcohol consumption and cardiorespiratory fitness in five population-based studies.

    PubMed

    Baumeister, Sebastian E; Finger, Jonas D; Gläser, Sven; Dörr, Marcus; Markus, Marcello Rp; Ewert, Ralf; Felix, Stephan B; Grabe, Hans-Jörgen; Bahls, Martin; Mensink, Gert Bm; Völzke, Henry; Piontek, Katharina; Leitzmann, Michael F

    2018-01-01

    Background Poor cardiorespiratory fitness is a risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity. Alcohol consumption contributes substantially to the burden of disease, but its association with cardiorespiratory fitness is not well described. We examined associations between average alcohol consumption, heavy episodic drinking and cardiorespiratory fitness. Design The design of this study was as a cross-sectional population-based random sample. Methods We analysed data from five independent population-based studies (Study of Health in Pomerania (2008-2012); German Health Interview and Examination Survey (2008-2011); US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2000; NHANES 2001-2002; NHANES 2003-2004) including 7358 men and women aged 20-85 years, free of lung disease or asthma. Cardiorespiratory fitness, quantified by peak oxygen uptake, was assessed using exercise testing. Information regarding average alcohol consumption (ethanol in grams per day (g/d)) and heavy episodic drinking (5+ or 6+ drinks/occasion) was obtained from self-reports. Fractional polynomial regression models were used to determine the best-fitting dose-response relationship. Results Average alcohol consumption displayed an inverted U-type relation with peak oxygen uptake ( p-value<0.0001), after adjustment for age, sex, education, smoking and physical activity. Compared to individuals consuming 10 g/d (moderate consumption), current abstainers and individuals consuming 50 and 60 g/d had significantly lower peak oxygen uptake values (ml/kg/min) (β coefficients = -1.90, β = -0.06, β = -0.31, respectively). Heavy episodic drinking was not associated with peak oxygen uptake. Conclusions Across multiple adult population-based samples, moderate drinkers displayed better fitness than current abstainers and individuals with higher average alcohol consumption.

  11. Hybrid Stochastic Models for Remaining Lifetime Prognosis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-08-01

    literature for techniques and comparisons. Os- ogami and Harchol-Balter [70], Perros [73], Johnson [36], and Altiok [5] provide excellent summaries of...and type of PH-distribution approximation for c2 > 0.5 is not as obvious. In order to use the minimum distance estimation, Perros [73] indicated that...moment-matching techniques. Perros [73] indicated that the maximum likelihood and minimum distance techniques require nonlinear optimization. Johnson

  12. Life events, salivary cortisol, and cognitive performance in nondemented subjects: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Ouanes, Sami; Castelao, Enrique; Gebreab, Sirak; von Gunten, Armin; Preisig, Martin; Popp, Julius

    2017-03-01

    Older people are particularly exposed to stressful events, known to activate the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis resulting in increased cortisol levels. High cortisol has been associated with deleterious effects on cognition. We hypothesized that stressful life events could increase cortisol secretion leading to cognitive impairment. A cross-sectional analysis was conducted using data from Colaus/PsyColaus, a longitudinal population-based study among Lausanne residents. Salivary cortisol samples were obtained from 796 nondemented subjects aged at least 65. A neuropsychological battery was used to assess cognitive performance and determine the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDRSOB). Lifetime life events and their subjective impact were assessed using a validated questionnaire. The total impact of life events was associated neither with cortisol area under the curve (AUC) nor with CDRSOB nor with any cognitive domain performance. The CDRSOB was associated with the cortisol AUC, controlling for age, sex, body mass index, education and depressive symptoms (p = 0.003; B = 0.686 [0.240; 1.333]; r = 0.114). This association between CDRSOB and the cortisol AUC remained significant after controlling for life events total impact (p = 0.040; B = 0.591 [0.027; 1.155]; r = 0.106). These findings do not support the hypothesis that stressful life events increase cortisol secretion leading to cognitive impairment. The association of higher cortisol levels with poorer cognition might be not a mere reflection of stressful events but rather explained by other factors, yet to be elucidated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Anxiety and depression in caregivers of individuals with celiac disease - A population-based study.

    PubMed

    Ludvigsson, Jonas F; Roy, Abhik; Lebwohl, Benjamin; Green, Peter H R; Emilsson, Louise

    2017-03-01

    Partner burden is common in celiac disease (CD), but it is unclear if parents of children with CD have increased burden, and if this may translate into depression and anxiety meriting healthcare. Nationwide population-based study of 41,753 parents and spouses ("caregivers") to 29,096 celiac patients and 215,752 caregivers to 144,522 matched controls. Caregivers were identified from the Swedish Total Population Register, and linked to data on psychiatric disease in the National Patient Registry. Hazard ratios (HRs) for depression, anxiety, and (as a reference outcome measure) bipolar disorder were examined in a lifetime fashion but also in temporal relationship to date of CD diagnosis using Cox regression. A priori, we focused on parents of individuals diagnosed ≤19 years of age (children at the age of disease onset) and spouses of individuals diagnosed in adulthood, as such parents and spouses ("high-risk caregivers") were most likely to live together with the patient at time of disease onset. On Cox analysis, depression was 11% more common in high-risk caregivers (HR=1.11: 95%CI=1.03-1.19) than in control caregivers while anxiety was 7% more common (HR=1.07: 95%CI=0.98-1.16). Combining anxiety and depression into a composite outcome measure, there was an 8% statistically significant risk increase (95%CI=1.02-1.14). The highest excess risks for both depression and anxiety were seen just before and 4-8 years after the CD diagnosis. In contrast, bipolar disorder was not more common in caregivers to CD patients. Caregivers to patients with CD may be at increased risk of severe burden. Copyright © 2016 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Cosmology in Mr. Tompkins' Lifetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lindner, Rudi Paul

    2016-01-01

    Mr. Tompkins, the hero of George Gamow's most famous book, was born in the first decade of the twentieth century and lived until its end. A bank clerk by day, Mr. Tompkins had wide-ranging interests, and his curiosity led him to popular scientific presentations, and these in turn brought him a long and happy marriage to Maud, the daughter of a professor of physics. His lifetime offers an appropriate framework for a meditation on the history of cosmology during the century in which cosmology became a scientific enterprise. As it happens, Mr. Tompkins' first exposure to cosmology, in which he observed both the expansion and contraction of an oscillating universe in 1939, happened during the long night of relativity, the generation in which relativity specialists became few and, like the galaxies, far between. This talk will consider the heyday of early relativistic cosmology from 1917 to 1935, the causes and consequences of the "long night" from 1935 until 1963, and the renaissance of cosmology, which, occurring as it did upon the retirement of Mr. Tompkins, afforded him great pleasure in his later years.

  15. Aspects of silicon bulk lifetimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Landsberg, P. T.

    1985-01-01

    The best lifetimes attained for bulk crytalline silicon as a function of doping concentrations are analyzed. It is assumed that the dopants which set the Fermi level do not contribute to the recombination traffic which is due to the unknown defect. This defect is assumed to have two charge states: neutral and negative, the neutral defect concentration is frozen-in at some temperature T sub f. The higher doping concentrations should include the band-band Auger effect by using a generalization of the Shockley-Read-Hall (SRH) mechanism. The generalization of the SRH mechanism is discussed. This formulation gives a straightforward procedure for incorporating both band-band and band-trap Auger effects in the SRH procedure. Two related questions arise in this context: (1) it may sometimes be useful to write the steady-state occupation probability of the traps implied by SRH procedure in a form which approximates to the Fermi-Dirac distribution; and (2) the effect on the SRH mechanism of spreading N sub t levels at one energy uniformly over a range of energies is discussed.

  16. Lifetime Evolution of UV Jets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Corti, G.; Poletto, G.; Suess, S. T.; Moore, R.; Sterling, A.

    2006-01-01

    We report on observations acquired in May 2003 during a SOHO-Ulysses quadrature campaign. From May 25 to May 28, the SoHO LASCO Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) catalog lists a number of events which might have been observed by SOHO/UVCS, whose slit was centered along the Ulysses direction. However, because of time gaps in the observing schedule, or because of the unfavorable position of some CMEs, the most interesting events recorded by UVCS were a few short-lived ejections that represent the extension at higher altitudes of recursive EIT jets. We focus on jets occurring on May 26/27, visible also in EIT and LASCO images, which seem to propagate along the radial to Ulysses. UVCS spectra at 1.7 Rsun showed an unusually high emission in cool lines, lasting for about 10 to 25 minutes, with no evidence of hot plasma. Analysis of the cool line emission allowed us to infer the evolution of physical parameters during the jets lifetime and derive a crude estimate of the energy needed to account for their properties. We also looked for any evidence of the event in in situ data. Whether UVCS is observing jets or narrow CMEs is discussed in the contest of previous works on these classes of events and, in the last Section, we propose a scenario that accounts for our observations.

  17. Optically sectioned wide-field fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy enabled by structured illumination

    PubMed Central

    Hinsdale, Taylor; Olsovsky, Cory; Rico-Jimenez, Jose J.; Maitland, Kristen C.; Jo, Javier A.; Malik, Bilal H.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, we demonstrate the ability of structured illumination microscopy to enhance the ability of fluorescence lifetime imaging to resolve fluorescence lifetimes in relatively thick samples that possess distinct but spectrally overlapping fluorescent layers. Structured illumination fluorescent lifetime imaging microscopy (SI-FLIM) is shown to be able to accurately reconstruct lifetime values in homogenous fluorophore samples (POPOP, NADH, and FAD) as well as accurately measure fluorescent lifetime in two layer models that are layered with NADH/FAD over POPOP, where NADH/FAD and POPOP have spectral overlap. Finally, the ability of SI-FLIM was demonstrated in a hamster cheek pouch ex vivo to show that more accurate lifetimes could be measured for each layer of interest in the oral mucosa (epithelium and submucosa). PMID:28663841

  18. Epidemiology of benign paroxysmal positional vertigo: a population based study.

    PubMed

    von Brevern, M; Radtke, A; Lezius, F; Feldmann, M; Ziese, T; Lempert, T; Neuhauser, H

    2007-07-01

    To examine the prevalence and incidence, clinical presentation, societal impact and comorbid conditions of benign paroxysmal positional vertigo (BPPV) in the general population. Cross-sectional, nationally representative neurotological survey of the general adult population in Germany with a two stage sampling design: screening of 4869 participants from the German National Telephone Health Interview Survey 2003 (response rate 52%) for moderate or severe dizziness or vertigo, followed by validated neurotological interviews (n = 1003; response rate 87%). Diagnostic criteria for BPPV were at least five attacks of vestibular vertigo lasting <1 min without concomitant neurological symptoms and invariably provoked by typical changes in head position. In a concurrent validation study (n = 61) conducted in two specialised dizziness clinics, BPPV was detected by our telephone interview with a specificity of 92% and a sensitivity of 88% (positive predictive value 88%, negative predictive value 92%). BPPV accounted for 8% of individuals with moderate or severe dizziness/vertigo. The lifetime prevalence of BPPV was 2.4%, the 1 year prevalence was 1.6% and the 1 year incidence was 0.6%. The median duration of an episode was 2 weeks. In 86% of affected individuals, BPPV led to medical consultation, interruption of daily activities or sick leave. In total, only 8% of affected participants received effective treatment. On multivariate analysis, age, migraine, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia and stroke were independently associated with BPPV. BPPV is a common vestibular disorder leading to significant morbidity, psychosocial impact and medical costs.

  19. Marginalisation and cardiovascular disease among rural Sami in Northern Norway: a population-based cross-sectional study.

    PubMed

    Eliassen, Bent-Martin; Melhus, Marita; Hansen, Ketil Lenert; Broderstad, Ann Ragnhild

    2013-05-29

    Like other indigenous peoples, the Sami have been exposed to the huge pressures of colonisation, rapid modernisation and subsequent marginalisation. Previous studies among indigenous peoples show that colonialism, rapid modernisation and marginalisation is accompanied by increased stress, an unhealthy cardiovascular risk factor profile and disease burden. Updated data on the general burden of cardiovascular disease among the Sami is lacking. The primary objective of this study was to assess the relationship between marginalisation and self-reported lifetime cardiovascular disease (CVD) by minority/majority status in the rural Sami population of Norway. A cross-sectional population-based study (the SAMINOR study) was carried out in 2003-2004. The overall participation rate was 60.9% and a total of 4027 Sami individuals aged 36-79 years were included in the analyses. Data was collected by self-administrated questionnaires and a clinical examination. The logistic regression showed that marginalised Sami living in Norwegian dominated areas were more than twice as likely to report CVD as non-marginalised Sami living in Sami majority areas (OR 2.10, 95% CI: 1.40-3.14). No sex difference was found in the effects of marginalisation on self-reported life-time cardiovascular disease. Moderate to no intermediate effects were seen after including established CVD risk factors. This study showed that marginalised Sami living in Norwegian dominated areas were more than twice as likely as non-marginalised Sami from Sami majority areas to report lifetime cardiovascular disease (CVD). Moderate to no intermediate effects were seen after including established CVD risk factors, which suggest little difference in lifestyle related factors. Chronic stress exposure following marginalisation may however be a plausible explanation for some of the observed excess of CVD.

  20. Heritability of Autism Spectrum Disorder in a UK Population-Based Twin Sample

    PubMed Central

    Colvert, Emma; Tick, Beata; McEwen, Fiona; Stewart, Catherine; Curran, Sarah R.; Woodhouse, Emma; Gillan, Nicola; Hallett, Victoria; Lietz, Stephanie; Garnett, Tracy; Ronald, Angelica; Plomin, Robert; Rijsdijk, Frühling; Happé, Francesca; Bolton, Patrick

    2016-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Most evidence to date highlights the importance of genetic influences on the liability to autism and related traits. However, most of these findings are derived from clinically ascertained samples, possibly missing individuals with subtler manifestations, and obtained estimates may not be representative of the population. OBJECTIVES To establish the relative contributions of genetic and environmental factors in liability to autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and a broader autism phenotype in a large population-based twin sample and to ascertain the genetic/environmental relationship between dimensional trait measures and categorical diagnostic constructs of ASD. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We used data from the population-based cohort Twins Early Development Study, which included all twin pairs born in England and Wales from January 1, 1994, through December 31, 1996. We performed joint continuous-ordinal liability threshold model fitting using the full information maximum likelihood method to estimate genetic and environmental parameters of covariance. Twin pairs underwent the following assessments: the Childhood Autism Spectrum Test (CAST) (6423 pairs; mean age, 7.9 years), the Development and Well-being Assessment (DAWBA) (359 pairs; mean age, 10.3 years), the Autism Diagnostic Observation Schedule (ADOS) (203 pairs; mean age, 13.2 years), the Autism Diagnostic Interview–Revised (ADI-R) (205 pairs; mean age, 13.2 years), and a best-estimate diagnosis (207 pairs). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Participants underwent screening using a population-based measure of autistic traits (CAST assessment), structured diagnostic assessments (DAWBA, ADI-R, and ADOS), and a best-estimate diagnosis. RESULTS On all ASD measures, correlations among monozygotic twins (range, 0.77-0.99) were significantly higher than those for dizygotic twins (range, 0.22-0.65), giving heritability estimates of 56% to 95%. The covariance of CAST and ASD diagnostic status (DAWBA, ADOS

  1. Suicide among male veterans: a prospective population-based study.

    PubMed

    Kaplan, Mark S; Huguet, Nathalie; McFarland, Bentson H; Newsom, Jason T

    2007-07-01

    To assess the risk of mortality from suicide among male veteran participants in a large population-based health survey. A prospective follow-up study in the US. Data were obtained from the US National Health Interview Surveys 1986-94 and linked to the Multiple Cause of Death file (1986-97) through the National Death Index. The sample comprised 320 890 men, aged >/=18 years at baseline. The participants were followed up with respect to mortality for 12 years. Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that veterans who were white, those with >/=12 years of education and those with activity limitations (after adjusting for medical and psychiatric morbidity) were at a greater risk for completing suicide. Veterans were twice as likely (adjusted hazard ratio 2.13, 95% CI 1.14 to 3.99) [corrected] to die of suicide compared with non-veterans in the general population. The risk of death from "natural" causes (diseases) and the risk of death from "external" causes did not differ between the veterans and the non-veterans. Interestingly, male veterans who were overweight had a significantly lower risk of completing suicide than those who were of normal weight. Veterans in the general US population, whether or not they are affiliated with the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA), are at an increased risk of suicide. With a projected rise in the incidence of functional impairment and psychiatric morbidity among veterans of the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, clinical and community interventions that are directed towards patients in both VA and non-VA healthcare facilities are needed.

  2. Recurrence of hyperemesis gravidarum across generations: population based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Skjærven, Rolv; Grjibovski, Andrej M; Gunnes, Nina; Vangen, Siri; Magnus, Per

    2010-01-01

    Objective To estimate the risk of hyperemesis gravidarum (hyperemesis) according to whether the daughters and sons under study were born after pregnancies complicated by hyperemesis. Design Population based cohort study. Setting Registry data from Norway. Participants Linked generational data from the medical birth registry of Norway (1967-2006): 544 087 units of mother and childbearing daughter and 399 777 units of mother and child producing son. Main outcome measure Hyperemesis in daughters in mother and childbearing daughter units and hyperemesis in female partners of sons in mother and child producing son units. Results Daughters who were born after a pregnancy complicated by hyperemesis had a 3% risk of having hyperemesis in their own pregnancy, while women who were born after an unaffected pregnancy had a risk of 1.1% (unadjusted odds ratio 2.9, 95% confidence interval 2.4 to 3.6). Female partners of sons who were born after pregnancies complicated by hyperemesis had a risk of 1.2% (1.0, 0.7 to 1.6). Daughters born after a pregnancy not complicated by hyperemesis had an increased risk of the condition if the mother had hyperemesis in a previous or subsequent pregnancy (3.2 (1.6 to 6.4) if hyperemesis had occurred in one of the mother’s previous pregnancies and 3.7 (1.5 to 9.1) if it had occurred in a later pregnancy). Adjustment for maternal age at childbirth, period of birth, and parity did not change the estimates. Restrictions to firstborns did not influence the results. Conclusions Hyperemesis gravidarum is more strongly influenced by the maternal genotype than the fetal genotype, though environmental influences along the maternal line cannot be excluded as contributing factors. PMID:21030362

  3. Population-based study of presbyopia in Shahroud, Iran.

    PubMed

    Hashemi, Hassan; Khabazkhoob, Mehdi; Jafarzadehpur, Ebrahim; Mehravaran, Shiva; Emamian, Mohammad Hassan; Yekta, AbbasAli; Shariati, Mohammad; Fotouhi, Akbar

    2012-12-01

    There is limited information regarding the prevalence of presbyopia in different parts of the world. The add power and the prevalence of presbyopia by age and gender in general population of Shahroud, north of Iran, were studied. Population-based cross-sectional study. Using random cluster sampling, 6311 people from the 40- to 64-year-old population of Shahroud were invited. Of the invited population, 5190 individuals (82.2%) participated in the study. Presbyopia was defined as the correction of near vision to logMAR 1 (N8 point) with at least 1 D of add power. Near visual acuity of participants was evaluated with a logMAR chart at a distance of 40 cm. Mean add power in the age groups of 40-44, 45-49, 50-54, 55-59 and 60-64 years was 0.65, 1.30, 1.70, 1.87 and 2.08 D, respectively. For each 5-year increase in age, a 0.35 D increase in add power was noted. The prevalence of presbyopia was 58.15% (95% confidence interval: 56.46-59.84). Presbyopia was more prevalent in women (P < 0.001) and increased with ageing more in women than in men (P < 0.001). Furthermore, in the 60-64-year-old age group, 11% of men and 23% of women were not presbyopic. Compared with other reports, the add power in different age groups was 0.5 D less, and presbyopia was less prevalent. More than 50% of the over 45-year-old individuals were presbyopic and 17% of the over 60 individuals were free of this condition. © 2012 The Authors. Clinical and Experimental Ophthalmology © 2012 Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Ophthalmologists.

  4. Population-Based Ectopic Pregnancy Trends, 1993–2007

    PubMed Central

    Trabert, Britton; Holt, Victoria L; Yu, Onchee; Van Den Eeden, Stephen K; Scholes, Delia

    2011-01-01

    Background The accuracy of ectopic pregnancy rates based on nationally representative data has been compromised for many years, impairing surveillance and evaluation of the continued public health importance of this condition. Purpose To estimate long-term population-based ectopic pregnancy rates and trends within a defined population over a largely unevaluated time period, including the evaluation of trends in outpatient versus inpatient management and medical versus surgical treatment modalities. Methods Using computerized Group Health Cooperative inpatient and outpatient data, age-adjusted and age-specific ectopic pregnancy rates were calculated from 1993 to 2007 among enrollees aged 15–44 years. Overall trends and trends for care setting (inpatient versus outpatient) and treatment modality (medical versus surgical) were also evaluated. Analyses were conducted in 2009. Results Between 1993 and 2007, 2114 ectopic pregnancy cases (726 inpatient; 1388 outpatient) were identified among 1 180 070 woman-years, an annual age-adjusted ectopic pregnancy rate of 17.9 per 10 000 woman-years. Rates were stable from 1993 to 2004 and increased in the most recent 3 years (2005–2007, rate = 21.1 per 10 000 woman-years). Rates per 1000 pregnancies increased over the 15-year period from 19.2 to 26.2 per 1000 pregnancies (p-value = 0.001). Inpatient-diagnosed cases decreased from 45.4% in 1993–1995 to 26.9% in 2005–2007 (p-value < 0.0001) and the percentage with surgical treatment decreased from 48.1% to 30.7% (p-value < 0.0001). Conclusions The results suggest a trend toward increasing ectopic pregnancy rates over a recent 15-year period. Rates are similar to the last available national estimate suggesting that the significance of ectopic pregnancy as a public health problem has not diminished in these intervening years. PMID:21496755

  5. Strabismus surgical subspecialization: a population-based analysis.

    PubMed

    Campbell, Robert J; Gill, Sudeep S; Ten Hove, Martin; El-Defrawy, Sherif R; Strube, Yi Ning J; Whitehead, Marlo; Campbell, Erica de L P; Bell, Chaim M

    2015-05-01

    The growing complexity of medical and surgical care has resulted in increasing subspecialization. To date, data have been lacking regarding the degree to which subspecialization has affected the provision of strabismus surgical services. This gap is important to address given the implications for health care human resources planning and educational programs. To investigate the effect of subspecialization on the provision of strabismus surgery services. Population-based study in Ontario, Canada, which provides universal health care coverage to the provincial population. Participants included all ophthalmologists in Ontario and the provincial population of approximately 12 million persons from January 1, 1994, through December 31, 2011. Surgeon-level rates of strabismus surgery. From January 1, 1994, through December 31, 2011, the percentage of ophthalmologists who provided strabismus surgery decreased from 37.7% (156 of 414 surgeons) to 12.5% (54 of 432 surgeons; difference, 25.2%; 95% CI, 19.3%-30.9%; P < .001), a 66.8% decline from the baseline level. Of ophthalmologists who provided strabismus surgery during the same period, the mean number of strabismus procedures per surgeon grew from 16.2 to 55.3 per year, a 241.4% increase (95% CI, 20.4%-461.6%; P < .001). These trends occurred at all career stages. Strabismus surgery has evolved into a subspecialized field of ophthalmology during the past 15 years. These findings may have important implications for health care professionals and health care system leaders, including the need to account for subspecialization in physician human resources decisions to ensure access to quality strabismus surgery across regions. Furthermore, residency education programs and their governing organizations may need to account for strabismus subspecialization when designing curriculum and accreditation requirements.

  6. [Population-based study of diabetic retinopathy in Wolfsburg].

    PubMed

    Hesse, L; Grüsser, M; Hoffstadt, K; Jörgens, V; Hartmann, P; Kroll, P

    2001-11-01

    Since November 1997 the complete documentation of an ophthalmological examination of diabetics has been annually subsidized by the Volkswagen Corporation Health Maintenance Organization (VW-HMO). The results of an annual ophthalmological examination were recorded in a standardised history sheet developed by the Initiative Group for Early Detection of Diabetic Eye Diseases. These data included visual acuity, intraocular pressure, lens status and a description of fundus abnormalities. Within 26 months ophthalmological examinations of 2,801 patients were completed which represented 4.5% of all VW-HMO insured patients. On average, patients suffered from diabetes for 9.6 years (SD +/- 8.3), artificial intraocular lenses were present in 357 eyes (6.4%) and 1,216 eyes (12.0%) were diagnosed with cataract or posterior capsule opacification impairing visual acuity. Out of 263 patients younger than 40 years old, 18.8% had a mild or moderate and 3.3% a severe non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR). A proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) was found in 2.2% of the younger patients. Of 2,228 patients aged 40 years and older, 11.9% had a mild or moderate and 2.6% a severe NPDR. In 0.9% of this group PDR was diagnosed. An annual ophthalmological screening based on a survey sheet of the Initiative Group was successfully introduced. For the first time a population-based evaluation on the prevalence of diabetic retinopathy was carried out for inhabitants of a German city. The prevalence of PDR was found to be lower than previously published in comparable studied.

  7. Exceptional Brain Aging in a Rural Population-Based Cohort

    PubMed Central

    Kaye, Jeffrey; Michael, Yvonne; Calvert, James; Leahy, Marjorie; Crawford, Debbie; Kramer, Patricia

    2012-01-01

    Context The 2000 US census identified 50,454 Americans over the age of 100. Increased longevity is only of benefit if accompanied by maintenance of independence and quality of life. Little is known about the prevalence of dementia and other disabling conditions among rural centenarians although this information is important to clinicians caring for them. Purpose To determine the prevalence of disabling conditions, including cognitive impairment, among the very elderly in a rural setting to guide clinicians in their care. Methods We performed a population-based cohort study of all residents 97 years and older in the Klamath Basin, a rural region in southern Oregon. The prevalence of disabling conditions was determined by in-person examination. Findings 100% of the target sample was identified. Of the eligible 67 individuals ≥ 97 years old, 31 were evaluated in-person. The prevalence of dementia (probable or possible Alzheimer’s disease or vascular dementia) was 61.3% (95% CI: 43.8, 76.2), mild cognitive impairment was 29.0% (95% CI: 16.1, 46.6), and no dementia was 9.7% (95% CI: 3.4, 25.0). Parkinsonism and the APOEe4 allele were rare. Systemic vascular disease was almost universally present. Conclusions While cognitive impairment was nearly universal in this rural population of very elderly persons, almost 40% had not progressed to full dementia. Determining risk factors for dementia in this population can identify strategies to prevent progression to dementia among younger elderly populations. PMID:19566620

  8. Calibrating a population-based job-exposure matrix using inspection measurements to estimate historical occupational exposure to lead for a population-based cohort in Shanghai, China

    PubMed Central

    Koh, Dong-Hee; Bhatti, Parveen; Coble, Joseph B.; Stewart, Patricia A; Lu, Wei; Shu, Xiao-Ou; Ji, Bu-Tian; Xue, Shouzheng; Locke, Sarah J.; Portengen, Lutzen; Yang, Gong; Chow, Wong-Ho; Gao, Yu-Tang; Rothman, Nathaniel; Vermeulen, Roel; Friesen, Melissa C.

    2012-01-01

    The epidemiologic evidence for the carcinogenicity of lead is inconsistent and requires improved exposure assessment to estimate risk. We evaluated historical occupational lead exposure for a population-based cohort of women (n=74,942) by calibrating a job-exposure matrix (JEM) with lead fume (n=20,084) and lead dust (n=5,383) measurements collected over four decades in Shanghai, China. Using mixed-effect models, we calibrated intensity JEM ratings to the measurements using fixed-effects terms for year and JEM rating. We developed job/industry-specific estimates from the random-effects terms for job and industry. The model estimates were applied to subjects’ jobs when the JEM probability rating was high for either job or industry; remaining jobs were considered unexposed. The models predicted that exposure increased monotonically with JEM intensity rating and decreased 20–50-fold over time. The cumulative calibrated JEM estimates and job/industry-specific estimates were highly correlated (Pearson correlation=0.79–0.84). Overall, 5% of the person-years and 8% of the women were exposed to lead fume; 2% of the person-years and 4% of the women were exposed to lead dust. The most common lead-exposed jobs were manufacturing electronic equipment. These historical lead estimates should enhance our ability to detect associations between lead exposure and cancer risk in future epidemiologic analyses. PMID:22910004

  9. Effects of Low Activity Solar Cycle on Orbital Debris Lifetime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cable, Samual B.; Sutton, Eric K.; Lin, chin S.; Liou, J.-C.

    2011-01-01

    Long duration of low solar activity in the last solar minimum has an undesirable consequence of extending the lifetime of orbital debris. The AFRL TacSat-2 satellite decommissioned in 2008 has finally re-entered into the atmosphere on February 5th after more than one year overdue. Concerning its demise we have monitored its orbital decay and monthly forecasted Tacsat-2 re-entry since September 2010 by using the Orbital Element Prediction (OEP) model developed by the AFRL Orbital Drag Environment program. The model combines estimates of future solar activity with neutral density models, drag coefficient models, and an orbit propagator to predict satellite lifetime. We run the OEP model with solar indices forecast by the NASA Marshall Solar Activity Future Estimation model, and neutral density forecast by the MSIS-00 neutral density model. Based on the two line elements in 2010 up to mid September, we estimated at a 50% confidence level TacSat-2's re-entry time to be in early February 2011, which turned out to be in good agreement with Tacsat-2's actual re-entry date. The potential space weather effects of the coming low activity solar cycle on satellite lifetime and orbital debris population are examined. The NASA long-term orbital debris evolutionary model, LEGEND, is used to quantify the effects of solar flux on the orbital debris population in the 200-600 km altitude environment. The results are discussed for developing satellite orbital drag application product.

  10. Statin Use Reduces Prostate Cancer All-Cause Mortality: A Nationwide Population-Based Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Sun, Li-Min; Lin, Ming-Chia; Lin, Cheng-Li; Chang, Shih-Ni; Liang, Ji-An; Lin, I-Ching; Kao, Chia-Hung

    2015-09-01

    Studies have suggested that statin use is related to cancer risk and prostate cancer mortality. We conducted a population-based cohort study to determine whether using statins in prostate cancer patients is associated with reduced all-cause mortality rates. Data were obtained from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. The study cohort comprised 5179 patients diagnosed with prostate cancer who used statins for at least 6 months between January 1, 1998 and December 31, 2010. To form a comparison group, each patient was randomly frequency-matched (according to age and index date) with a prostate cancer patient who did not use any type of statin-based drugs during the study period. The study endpoint was mortality. The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were estimated using Cox regression models. Among prostate cancer patients, statin use was associated with significantly decreased all-cause mortality (adjusted HR = 0.65; 95% CI = 0.60-0.71). This phenomenon was observed among various types of statin, age groups, and treatment methods. Analyzing the defined daily dose of statins indicated that both low- and high-dose groups exhibited significantly decreased death rates compared with nonusers, suggesting a dose-response relationship. The results of this population-based cohort study suggest that using statins reduces all-cause mortality among prostate cancer patients, and a dose-response relationship may exist.

  11. Colorectal Cancer Prognosis Following Obesity Surgery in a Population-Based Cohort Study.

    PubMed

    Tao, Wenjing; Konings, Peter; Hull, Mark A; Adami, Hans-Olov; Mattsson, Fredrik; Lagergren, Jesper

    2017-05-01

    Obesity surgery involves mechanical and physiological changes of the gastrointestinal tract that might promote colorectal cancer progression. Thus, we hypothesised that obesity surgery is associated with poorer prognosis in patients with colorectal cancer. This nationwide population-based cohort study included all patients with an obesity diagnosis who subsequently developed colorectal cancer in Sweden from 1980 to 2012. The exposure was obesity surgery, and the main and secondary outcomes were disease-specific mortality and all-cause mortality, respectively. Cox proportional hazard survival models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for sex, age, calendar year and education level. The exposed and unexposed cohort included 131 obesity surgery and 1332 non-obesity surgery patients with colorectal cancer. There was a statistically significant increased rate of colorectal cancer deaths following obesity surgery (disease-specific HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.00-2.19). When analysed separately, the mortality rate was more than threefold increased in rectal cancer patients with prior obesity surgery (disease-specific HR 3.70, 95% CI 2.00-6.90), while no increased mortality rate was found in colon cancer patients (disease-specific HR 1.10, 85% CI 0.67-1.70). This population-based study among obese individuals found a poorer prognosis in colorectal cancer following obesity surgery, which was primarily driven by the higher mortality rate in rectal cancer.

  12. Societal and Family Lifetime Cost of Dementia: Implications for Policy.

    PubMed

    Jutkowitz, Eric; Kane, Robert L; Gaugler, Joseph E; MacLehose, Richard F; Dowd, Bryan; Kuntz, Karen M

    2017-10-01

    To estimate the cost of dementia and the extra cost of caring for someone with dementia over the cost of caring for someone without dementia. We developed an evidence-based mathematical model to simulate disease progression for newly diagnosed individuals with dementia. Data-driven trajectories of cognition, function, and behavioral and psychological symptoms were used to model disease progression and predict costs. Using modeling, we evaluated lifetime and annual costs of individuals with dementia, compared costs of those with and without clinical features of dementia, and evaluated the effect of reducing functional decline or behavioral and psychological symptoms by 10% for 12 months (implemented when Mini-Mental State Examination score ≤21). Mathematical model. Representative simulated U.S. incident dementia cases. Value of informal care, out-of-pocket expenditures, Medicaid expenditures, and Medicare expenditures. From time of diagnosis (mean age 83), discounted total lifetime cost of care for a person with dementia was $321,780 (2015 dollars). Families incurred 70% of the total cost burden ($225,140), Medicaid accounted for 14% ($44,090), and Medicare accounted for 16% ($52,540). Costs for a person with dementia over a lifetime were $184,500 greater (86% incurred by families) than for someone without dementia. Total annual cost peaked at $89,000, and net cost peaked at $72,400. Reducing functional decline or behavioral and psychological symptoms by 10% resulted in $3,880 and $680 lower lifetime costs than natural disease progression. Dementia substantially increases lifetime costs of care. Long-lasting, effective interventions are needed to support families because they incur the most dementia cost. © 2017, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2017, The American Geriatrics Society.

  13. Multimodel Estimates of Atmospheric Lifetimes of Long-lived Ozone-Depleting Substances: Present and Future

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chipperfield, M. P.; Liang, Q.; Strahan, S. E.; Morgenstern, O.; Dhomse, S. S.; Abraham, N. L.; Archibald, A. T.; Bekki, S.; Braesicke, P.; Di Genova, G.; hide

    2014-01-01

    We have diagnosed the lifetimes of long-lived source gases emitted at the surface and removed in the stratosphere using six three-dimensional chemistry-climate models and a two-dimensional model. The models all used the same standard photochemical data. We investigate the effect of different definitions of lifetimes, including running the models with both mixing ratio (MBC) and flux (FBC) boundary conditions. Within the same model, the lifetimes diagnosed by different methods agree very well. Using FBCs versus MBCs leads to a different tracer burden as the implied lifetime contained in the MBC value does not necessarily match a model's own calculated lifetime. In general, there are much larger differences in the lifetimes calculated by different models, the main causes of which are variations in the modeled rates of ascent and horizontal mixing in the tropical midlower stratosphere. The model runs have been used to compute instantaneous and steady state lifetimes. For chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) their atmospheric distribution was far from steady state in their growth phase through to the 1980s, and the diagnosed instantaneous lifetime is accordingly much longer. Following the cessation of emissions, the resulting decay of CFCs is much closer to steady state. For 2100 conditions the model circulation speeds generally increase, but a thicker ozone layer due to recovery and climate change reduces photolysis rates. These effects compensate so the net impact on modeled lifetimes is small. For future assessments of stratospheric ozone, use of FBCs would allow a consistent balance between rate of CFC removal and model circulation rate

  14. Multimodel estimates of atmospheric lifetimes of long-lived ozone-depleting substances: Present and future

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chipperfield, M. P.; Liang, Q.; Strahan, S. E.; Morgenstern, O.; Dhomse, S. S.; Abraham, N. L.; Archibald, A. T.; Bekki, S.; Braesicke, P.; Di Genova, G.; Fleming, E. L.; Hardiman, S. C.; Iachetti, D.; Jackman, C. H.; Kinnison, D. E.; Marchand, M.; Pitari, G.; Pyle, J. A.; Rozanov, E.; Stenke, A.; Tummon, F.

    2014-03-01

    We have diagnosed the lifetimes of long-lived source gases emitted at the surface and removed in the stratosphere using six three-dimensional chemistry-climate models and a two-dimensional model. The models all used the same standard photochemical data. We investigate the effect of different definitions of lifetimes, including running the models with both mixing ratio (MBC) and flux (FBC) boundary conditions. Within the same model, the lifetimes diagnosed by different methods agree very well. Using FBCs versus MBCs leads to a different tracer burden as the implied lifetime contained in the MBC value does not necessarily match a model's own calculated lifetime. In general, there are much larger differences in the lifetimes calculated by different models, the main causes of which are variations in the modeled rates of ascent and horizontal mixing in the tropical midlower stratosphere. The model runs have been used to compute instantaneous and steady state lifetimes. For chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) their atmospheric distribution was far from steady state in their growth phase through to the 1980s, and the diagnosed instantaneous lifetime is accordingly much longer. Following the cessation of emissions, the resulting decay of CFCs is much closer to steady state. For 2100 conditions the model circulation speeds generally increase, but a thicker ozone layer due to recovery and climate change reduces photolysis rates. These effects compensate so the net impact on modeled lifetimes is small. For future assessments of stratospheric ozone, use of FBCs would allow a consistent balance between rate of CFC removal and model circulation rate.

  15. Fluorescence Intensity Decays of 2-Aminopurine solutions: Lifetime Distribution Approach

    PubMed Central

    Bharill, Shashank; Sarkar, Pabak; Ballin, Jeff D.; Gryczynski, Ignacy; Wilson, Gerald M.; Gryczynski, Zygmunt

    2013-01-01

    The fluorescent adenine analogue 2-aminopurine (2AP) has been used extensively to monitor conformational changes and macromolecular binding events involving nucleic acids because its fluorescence properties are highly sensitive to changes in chemical environment. Furthermore, site-specific incorporation of 2AP permits local DNA and RNA conformational events to be discriminated from the global structural changes monitored by UV/Vis spectroscopy and circular dichroism. However, while the steady-state fluorescence properties of 2AP have been well defined in diverse settings, interpretation of 2AP fluorescence lifetime parameters has been hampered by the heterogeneous nature of multi-exponential 2AP intensity decays observed across populations of microenvironments. To resolve this problem, we have tested the utility of multi-exponential versus continuous Lorentzian lifetime distribution models to describe fluorescence intensity decays from 2AP in diverse chemical backgrounds and within the context of RNA. Heterogeneity was introduced into 2AP intensity decays by mixing solvents of differing polarities, or by adding quenchers under high viscosity to evaluate the transient effect. Heterogeneity of 2AP fluorescence within the context of a synthetic RNA hairpin was introduced by structural remodeling using a magnesium salt. In each case, except folded RNA which required a bimodal distribution, 2AP lifetime properties were well described by single Lorentzian distribution functions, abrogating the need to introduce additional discrete lifetime subpopulations. Rather, heterogeneity in fluorescence decay processes was accommodated by the breadth of each distribution. This approach also permitted solvent relaxation effects on 2AP emission to be assessed by comparing lifetime distributions at multiple wavelengths. Together, these studies provide a new perspective for the interpretation of 2AP fluorescence lifetime properties, which will further the utility of this fluorophore in

  16. Lifetime Economic Burden of Rape Among U.S. Adults.

    PubMed

    Peterson, Cora; DeGue, Sarah; Florence, Curtis; Lokey, Colby N

    2017-06-01

    This study estimated the per-victim U.S. lifetime cost of rape. Data from previous studies was combined with current administrative data and 2011 U.S. National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey data in a mathematical model. Rape was defined as any lifetime completed or attempted forced penetration or alcohol- or drug-facilitated penetration, measured among adults not currently institutionalized. Costs included attributable impaired health, lost productivity, and criminal justice costs from the societal perspective. Average age at first rape was assumed to be 18 years. Future costs were discounted by 3%. The main outcome measures were the average per-victim (female and male) and total population discounted lifetime cost of rape. Secondary outcome measures were marginal outcome probabilities among victims (e.g., suicide attempt) and perpetrators (e.g., incarceration) and associated costs. Analysis was conducted in 2016. The estimated lifetime cost of rape was $122,461 per victim, or a population economic burden of nearly $3.1 trillion (2014 U.S. dollars) over victims' lifetimes, based on data indicating >25 million U.S. adults have been raped. This estimate included $1.2 trillion (39% of total) in medical costs; $1.6 trillion (52%) in lost work productivity among victims and perpetrators; $234 billion (8%) in criminal justice activities; and $36 billion (1%) in other costs, including victim property loss or damage. Government sources pay an estimated $1 trillion (32%) of the lifetime economic burden. Preventing sexual violence could avoid substantial costs for victims, perpetrators, healthcare payers, employers, and government payers. These findings can inform evaluations of interventions to reduce sexual violence. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  17. Lifetime Economic Burden of Rape Among U.S. Adults

    PubMed Central

    Peterson, Cora; DeGue, Sarah; Florence, Curtis; Lokey, Colby N.

    2017-01-01

    Introduction This study estimated the per-victim U.S. lifetime cost of rape. Methods Data from previous studies was combined with current administrative data and 2011 U.S. National Intimate Partner and Sexual Violence Survey data in a mathematical model. Rape was defined as any lifetime completed or attempted forced penetration or alcohol- or drug-facilitated penetration, measured among adults not currently institutionalized. Costs included attributable impaired health, lost productivity, and criminal justice costs from the societal perspective. Average age at first rape was assumed to be 18 years. Future costs were discounted by 3%. The main outcome measures were the average per-victim (female and male) and total population discounted lifetime cost of rape. Secondary outcome measures were marginal outcome probabilities among victims (e.g., suicide attempt) and perpetrators (e.g., incarceration) and associated costs. Analysis was conducted in 2016. Results The estimated lifetime cost of rape was $122,461 per victim, or a population economic burden of nearly $3.1 trillion (2014 U.S. dollars) over victims’ lifetimes, based on data indicating >25 million U.S. adults have been raped. This estimate included $1.2 trillion (39% of total) in medical costs; $1.6 trillion (52%) in lost work productivity among victims and perpetrators; $234 billion (8%) in criminal justice activities; and $36 billion (1%) in other costs, including victim property loss or damage. Government sources pay an estimated $1 trillion (32%) of the lifetime economic burden. Conclusions Preventing sexual violence could avoid substantial costs for victims, perpetrators, healthcare payers, employers, and government payers. These findings can inform evaluations of interventions to reduce sexual violence. PMID:28153649

  18. Cardiovascular mortality after pre-eclampsia in one child mothers: prospective, population based cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Wilcox, Allen J; Klungsøyr, Kari; Irgens, Lorentz M; Vikse, Bjørn Egil; Vatten, Lars J; Lie, Rolv Terje

    2012-01-01

    Objective To assess the association of pre-eclampsia with later cardiovascular death in mothers according to their lifetime number of pregnancies, and particularly after only one child. Design Prospective, population based cohort study. Setting Medical Birth Registry of Norway. Participants We followed 836 147 Norwegian women with a first singleton birth between 1967 and 2002 for cardiovascular mortality through linkage to the national Cause of Death Registry. About 23 000 women died by 2009, of whom 3891 died from cardiovascular causes. Associations between pre-eclampsia and cardiovascular death were assessed by hazard ratios, estimated by Cox regression analyses. Hazard ratios were adjusted for maternal education (three categories), maternal age at first birth, and year of first birth Results The rate of cardiovascular mortality among women with preterm pre-eclampsia was 9.2% after having only one child, falling to 1.1% for those with two or more children. With term pre-eclampsia, the rates were 2.8% and 1.1%, respectively. Women with pre-eclampsia in their first pregnancy had higher rates of cardiovascular death than those who did not have the condition at first birth (adjusted hazard ratio 1.6 (95% confidence interval 1.4 to 2.0) after term pre-eclampsia; 3.7 (2.7 to 4.8) after preterm pre-eclampsia). Among women with only one lifetime pregnancy, the increase in risk of cardiovascular death was higher than for those with two or more children (3.4 (2.6 to 4.6) after term pre-eclampsia; 9.4 (6.5 to 13.7) after preterm pre-eclampsia). The risk of cardiovascular death was only moderately elevated among women with pre-eclamptic first pregnancies who went on to have additional children (1.5 (1.2 to 2.0) after term pre-eclampsia; 2.4 (1.5 to 3.9) after preterm pre-eclampsia). There was little evidence of additional risk after recurrent pre-eclampsia. All cause mortality for women with two or more lifetime births, who had pre-eclampsia in first pregnancy, was not

  19. Gender differences in binge-eating: a population-based twin study.

    PubMed

    Reichborn-Kjennerud, T; Bulik, C M; Kendler, K S; Røysamb, E; Maes, H; Tambs, K; Harris, J R

    2003-09-01

    To assess whether genetic and environmental effects on liability to binge-eating (BE) are of equal importance for males and females and whether the same genetic risk factors predispose to BE in the two sexes. Questionnaire data on 8045 same sex and opposite sex twins, aged 19-31 years, from a population-based Norwegian registry, was used to estimate the relative contribution of genetic and environmental factors to liability for BE utilizing structural equation modeling. In the best-fitting model, the magnitude of genetic and environmental effects on BE was the same for males and females. Heritability was 51%. The correlation between genetic risk factors in men and women was estimated to be +0.57. Binge-eating appears to be equally heritable in males and females. Although the majority of the genetic risk factors are shared between the sexes, there may exist gender-specific genetic effects on liability.

  20. Epidemiology of benign paroxysmal positional vertigo: a population based study

    PubMed Central

    von Brevern, M; Radtke, A; Lezius, F; Feldmann, M; Ziese, T; Lempert, T; Neuhauser, H

    2007-01-01

    Objectives To examine the prevalence and incidence, clinical presentation, societal impact and comorbid conditions of benign paroxysmal positional vertigo (BPPV) in the general population. Methods Cross‐sectional, nationally representative neurotological survey of the general adult population in Germany with a two stage sampling design: screening of 4869 participants from the German National Telephone Health Interview Survey 2003 (response rate 52%) for moderate or severe dizziness or vertigo, followed by validated neurotological interviews (n = 1003; response rate 87%). Diagnostic criteria for BPPV were at least five attacks of vestibular vertigo lasting <1 min without concomitant neurological symptoms and invariably provoked by typical changes in head position. In a concurrent validation study (n = 61) conducted in two specialised dizziness clinics, BPPV was detected by our telephone interview with a specificity of 92% and a sensitivity of 88% (positive predictive value 88%, negative predictive value 92%). Results BPPV accounted for 8% of individuals with moderate or severe dizziness/vertigo. The lifetime prevalence of BPPV was 2.4%, the 1 year prevalence was 1.6% and the 1 year incidence was 0.6%. The median duration of an episode was 2 weeks. In 86% of affected individuals, BPPV led to medical consultation, interruption of daily activities or sick leave. In total, only 8% of affected participants received effective treatment. On multivariate analysis, age, migraine, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia and stroke were independently associated with BPPV. Conclusion BPPV is a common vestibular disorder leading to significant morbidity, psychosocial impact and medical costs. PMID:17135456

  1. Sunlight Exposure and Breast Density: A Population-Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Sheng-Hui; So, Edwin; Lam, Tsz-ping; Woo, Jean; Yuen, PY; Qin, Ling; Ku, Susanna

    2013-01-01

    Purpose This study aims to assess the association of sunlight exposure with breast cancer risk, measured by the breast density assessed from Tabár's mammographic pattern in Chinese women. Methods A total of 676 premenopausal women were recruited to participate in this study, in which 650 completed a validated sunlight exposure questionnaire via telephone. The mammograms were classified according to Tabár's classification for parenchyma, and patterns IV & V and I, II & III indicated respectively high and low risk mammographic patterns for breast cancer. The odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for sun exposure-related variables were estimated using unconditional logistic regression with adjustment for potential confounders. Results Among 646 participants, women with high breast cancer risk (Tabár's patterns IV &V) had less hours spent in the sun than those with low risk (I, II & III) at any age stage. A higher level of sunlight exposure was associated with a significantly lower risk having high risk Tabár's pattern. Women aged 40 to 44 years who were in the highest tertile of lifetime total hours spent in the sun had a multi-adjusted OR of 0.41 (95% CI, 0.18-0.92; p for trend=0.03) compared with those in the lowest tertile (>2.19 hr/day vs. <1.32 hr/day). For hours spent in the sun across the ages of 6 to 12 years, the comparable OR was 0.37 (95% CI, 0.15-0.91; p for trend=0.03). Conclusion These findings suggest that higher sunlight exposure is related to a lower risk of having high risk breast density pattern in premenopausal women. Our results also suggest the most relevant period of exposure is during earlier life. PMID:23843849

  2. Sexual assault in Virginia: A population-based study.

    PubMed

    Masho, Saba W; Odor, Rebecca K; Adera, Tilahun

    2005-01-01

    Sexual assault is a serious social problem that affects the lives of many women, men, and children. Most sexual assaults are not reported to authorities and most victims do not seek services. As a result, accurate statistics on the prevalence and incidence of this problem are difficult to obtain. As in many states, the magnitude of sexual assault in Virginia is not known. This study was conducted to estimate the prevalence and determine the correlates of sexual assault among women in Virginia. A cross-sectional telephone survey was conducted among adult female residents of Virginia between November 2002 and February 2003. A total of 1,769 women aged 18 and older were interviewed using a random digit dialing method. The lifetime prevalence of sexual assault in Virginia was 27.6%. The majority (65%) were rape victims with a prevalence of 17.8%. Approximately 78% of the victims reported that the sexual assault occurred for the first time when they were children or adolescents. Women who reported sexual assault were more likely to be between 35 and 44 years old (OR = 3.57; 95% CI = 2.06-6.15), divorced/separated/widowed (OR = 1.61; 95% CI = 1.13-2.30), consume alcohol four or more times a week (OR = 1.80; 95% CI = 1.01-3.21), ideate suicide (OR = 4.48; 95% CI = 3.23-6.23), and perceive their health status to be poorer (OR = 2.74; 95% CI = 1.30-5.83). Sexual assault is a major public health problem in the Commonwealth of Virginia and children are disproportionately affected by the problem. Interventions and prevention programs should focus on children and adolescents.

  3. Burden of valvular heart diseases: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Nkomo, Vuyisile T; Gardin, Julius M; Skelton, Thomas N; Gottdiener, John S; Scott, Christopher G; Enriquez-Sarano, Maurice

    2006-09-16

    Valvular heart diseases are not usually regarded as a major public-health problem. Our aim was to assess their prevalence and effect on overall survival in the general population. We pooled population-based studies to obtain data for 11 911 randomly selected adults from the general population who had been assessed prospectively with echocardiography. We also analysed data from a community study of 16 501 adults who had been assessed by clinically indicated echocardiography. In the general population group, moderate or severe valve disease was identified in 615 adults. There was no difference in the frequency of such diseases between men and women (p=0.90). Prevalence increased with age, from 0.7% (95% CI 0.5-1.0) in 18-44 year olds to 13.3% (11.7-15.0) in the 75 years and older group (p<0.0001). The national prevalence of valve disease, corrected for age and sex distribution from the US 2000 population, is 2.5% (2.2-2.7). In the community group, valve disease was diagnosed in 1505 (1.8% adjusted) adults and frequency increased considerably with age, from 0.3% (0.2-0.3) of the 18-44 year olds to 11.7% (11.0-12.5) of those aged 75 years and older, but was diagnosed less often in women than in men (odds ratio 0.90, 0.81-1.01; p=0.07). The adjusted mortality risk ratio associated with valve disease was 1.36 (1.15-1.62; p=0.0005) in the population and 1.75 (1.61-1.90; p<0.0001) in the community. Moderate or severe valvular diseases are notably common in this population and increase with age. In the community, women are less often diagnosed than are men, which could indicate an important imbalance in view of the associated lower survival. Valve diseases thus represent an important public-health problem.

  4. Primary intramedullary spinal cord lymphoma: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Yang, Wuyang; Garzon-Muvdi, Tomas; Braileanu, Maria; Porras, Jose L; Caplan, Justin M; Rong, Xiaoming; Huang, Judy; Jallo, George I

    2017-03-01

    Primary intramedullary spinal cord lymphoma (PISCL) is a rare diagnosis with poorly understood disease progression. Clarification of the factors associated with survival in PISCL patients is warranted. We conducted a population-based cohort study utilizing prospectively collected data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Patients with histological diagnosis of primary lymphoma in spinal cord (C72.0) from 1973 to 2012 in the SEER database were included. Multivariable survival analysis between patient, lesion characteristics, and PISCL-related death was performed to adjust for confounding factors. We included 346 PISCL patients in our study. Average age was 56.5 ± 17.8 years, with 62.7% being male. Racial distribution of these patients was white (87.6%), black (8.0%), and other (4.3%). More than half (55.8%) of patients were married. The most prevalent histology of PISCL was diffuse B-cell (46.2%), and the majority (55.2%) were low stage (Ann Arbor stage I/II). Most patients (67.9%) received radiation therapy. Average survival interval of patients with PISCL-related death (n=135, 39.0%) was 27.8 months. General cumulative survival probability at 1 year, 2 years, and 5 years was 73.8%, 67.9%, and 63.1%, respectively. Multivariable accelerated failure time (AFT) regression showed follicular lymphoma (HR:0.25, P=.008) and more recent diagnosis (HR:0.96, P<.001) was positively associated with PISCL-related survival. Conversely, nonwhite race (HR:1.69, P=.046), older age (HR:1.02, P<.001), unmarried status (HR:2.14, P<.001), and higher stage (HR:1.54, P=.022) were negatively associated with survival. Age, race, marital status, tumor histology, tumor stage, and year of diagnosis were associated with survival of PISCL. While most PISCL-related deaths occur within a 1-year period, subsequent slow progression was observed after the first year of survival. © The Author(s) 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for

  5. Cyberbullying among Finnish adolescents – a population-based study

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Cyberbullying, threatening or harassing another via the internet or mobile phones, does not cause physically harm and thus the consequences are less visible. Little research has been performed on the occurrence of cyberbullying among adolescents or the perception of its seriousness. Only a few population-based studies have been published, none of which included research on the witnessing of cyberbullying. Here, we examined exposure to cyberbullying during the last year, and its frequency and perceived seriousness among 12 to 18-year-old adolescents in Finland. We studied four dimensions of cyberbullying: being a victim, bully, or both victim and bully of cyberbullying, and witnessing the cyberbullying of friends. Methods Self-administered questionnaires, including four questions on cyberbullying, were mailed to a representative sample of 12-, 14-, 16-, and 18-year-old Finns in 2009 (the Adolescent Health and Lifestyle Survey). The respondents could answer via the internet or paper questionnaire. Results The number of respondents was 5516 and the response rate was 56%. Girls more often than boys reported experiencing at least one dimension of cyberbullying during the last year. The proportion was highest among 14-year-olds and lowest among 18-year-olds of both sexes. Among girls, the most commonly encountered dimension was witnessing the cyberbullying of friends (16%); and being a victim was slightly more common than being a bully (11% vs. 9%). Among boys, an equal proportion, approximately 10%, had been a victim, a bully, or had witnessed cyberbullying. The proportion of bully-victims was 4%. Serious and disruptive cyberbullying was experienced by 2% of respondents and weekly cyberbullying by 1%; only 0.5% of respondents had been bullied weekly and considered bullying serious and disruptive. Conclusions Adolescents are commonly exposed to cyberbullying, but it is rarely frequent or considered serious or disruptive. Cyberbullying exposure differed between

  6. Pediatric endoscopic third ventriculostomy: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Lam, Sandi; Harris, Dominic; Rocque, Brandon G; Ham, Sandra A

    2014-11-01

    Endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV) is an alternative to ventriculoperitoneal shunting for hydrocephalus treatment. Choice of treatment options raises questions about which patients are likely to benefit from ETV. The authors performed a population-based analysis using an administrative claims database, examining current practice and outcomes for pediatric patients in the US. The authors queried the MarketScan (Truven Health Analytics) database for Current Procedural Terminology codes corresponding to ETV and ventriculoperitoneal shunting from 2003 to 2011; they included patients 19 years or younger and extracted data from initial and subsequent hospitalizations. Hydrocephalus etiology was classified with ICD-9-CM coding. ETV failure was defined as any subsequent ETV or shunt procedure. Five hundred one patients underwent ETV. Of these, 46% were female. The mean age was 8.7 ± 6.4 years (± SD). The mean follow-up was 1.9 ± 1.8 years. Etiology of hydrocephalus was primarily tumor (41.7%) and congenital/aqueductal stenosis (24.4%). ETV was successful in 354 patients (71%). The mean time to failure was 109.9 ± 233 days. Of the 147 patients with ETV failure, 35 (24%) underwent repeat ETV and 112 (76%) had shunt placement. Patients in age groups 0 to < 6 months and 6 months to < 1 year had a significantly higher rate of ETV failure than those 10-19 years (HR 2.9, p = 0.05; and HR 2.3, p = 0.001, respectively). History of prior shunt was associated with higher risk of failure (HR 2.5, p < 0.001). There were no significant associations between hydrocephalus etiology and risk of failure. A second wave of failures occurred at 2.5-3.5 years postoperative in tumor and congenital/aqueductal stenosis patients; this was not observed in other etiology groups. This study represents a cross-section of nationwide ETV practice over 9 years. ETV success was more likely among children 1 year and older and those with no history of prior shunt.

  7. Population-Based Incidence and Prevalence of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

    PubMed Central

    Somers, Emily C.; Marder, Wendy; Cagnoli, Patricia; Lewis, Emily E.; DeGuire, Peter; Gordon, Caroline; Helmick, Charles G.; Wang, Lu; Wing, Jeffrey J.; Dhar, J. Patricia; Leisen, James; Shaltis, Diane; McCune, W. Joseph

    2014-01-01

    Objective To estimate the incidence and prevalence of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in a sociodemographically diverse southeastern Michigan source population of 2.4 million people. Methods SLE cases fulfilling the American College of Rheumatology classification criteria (primary case definition) or meeting rheumatologist-judged SLE criteria (secondary definition) and residing in Wayne or Washtenaw Counties during 2002–2004 were included. Case finding was performed from 6 source types, including hospitals and private specialists. Age-standardized rates were computed, and capture–recapture was performed to estimate underascertainment of cases. Results The overall age-adjusted incidence and prevalence (ACR definition) per 100,000 persons were 5.5 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 5.0–6.1) and 72.8 (95% CI 70.8–74.8). Among females, the incidence was 9.3 per 100,000 persons and the prevalence was 128.7 per 100,000 persons. Only 7 cases were estimated to have been missed by capture–recapture, adjustment for which did not materially affect the rates. SLE prevalence was 2.3-fold higher in black persons than in white persons, and 10-fold higher in females than in males. Among incident cases, the mean ± SD age at diagnosis was 39.3 ± 16.6 years. Black SLE patients had a higher proportion of renal disease and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) (40.5% and 15.3%, respectively) as compared to white SLE patients (18.8% and 4.5%, respectively). Black patients with renal disease were diagnosed as having SLE at younger age than white patients with renal disease (mean ± SD 34.4 ± 14.9 years versus 41.9 ± 21.3 years; P = 0.05). Conclusion SLE prevalence was higher than has been described in most other population-based studies and reached 1 in 537 among black female persons. There were substantial racial disparities in the burden of SLE, with black patients experiencing earlier age at diagnosis, >2-fold increases in SLE incidence and prevalence, and increased

  8. Older Adults' Awareness of Deprescribing: A Population-Based Survey.

    PubMed

    Turner, Justin P; Tannenbaum, Cara

    2017-12-01

    To determine older adults' awareness of the concept of medication-induced harm and their familiarity with the term "deprescribing." Secondary objectives were to ascertain determinants of self-initiated deprescribing conversations and to identify how older adults seek information on medication harms. Cross-sectional population-based household telephone survey using random-digit dialling. Canada. Community-dwelling adults aged 65 and older (N = 2,665; n = 898 men, n = 1,767 women, mean age 74.9 ± 7.2, range 65-100). Information was gathered on age; sex; awareness of the term "deprescribing"; knowledge and information-seeking behaviors related to medication harms; and previous initiation of a deprescribing conversation with a healthcare professional. Three targeted classes of potentially inappropriate prescriptions were asked about: sedative-hypnotics, glyburide, and proton pump inhibitors. Descriptive statistics and regression analyses were used to quantify associations. Two-thirds (65.2%, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 63.4-67.0%) of participants were familiar with the concept of medication-induced harms. Only 6.9% (95% CI = 5.9-7.8%) recognized the term deprescribing; 48% (95% CI = 46-50%) had researched medication-related harms. Older adults most commonly sought information from the Internet (35.5%, 95% CI = 33.4-37.6%), and from health care professionals (32.2%, 95% CI = 30.1-34.3%). Patient-initiated deprescribing conversations were associated with awareness of medication harms (odds ratio (OR) = 1.74, 95% CI = 1.46-2.07), familiarity with the term deprescribing (OR = 1.55, 95% CI = 1.13-2.12), and information-seeking behaviors (OR = 4.57, 95% CI = 3.84-5.45), independent of age and sex. Healthcare providers can facilitate patient-initiated deprescribing conversations by providing information on medication harms and using the term "deprescribing." © 2017 The Authors. Journal of the American Geriatrics Society published by Wiley

  9. Lifetime risks for aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage: multivariable risk stratification.

    PubMed

    Vlak, Monique H M; Rinkel, Gabriel J E; Greebe, Paut; Greving, Jacoba P; Algra, Ale

    2013-06-01

    The overall incidence of aneurysmal subarachnoid haemorrhage (aSAH) in western populations is around 9 per 100 000 person-years, which confers to a lifetime risk of around half per cent. Risk factors for aSAH are usually expressed as relative risks and suggest that absolute risks vary considerably according to risk factor profiles, but such estimates are lacking. We aimed to estimate incidence and lifetime risks of aSAH according to risk factor profiles. We used data from 250 patients admitted with aSAH and 574 sex-matched and age-matched controls, who were randomly retrieved from general practitioners files. We determined independent prognostic factors with multivariable logistic regression analyses and assessed discriminatory performance using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Based on the prognostic model we predicted incidences and lifetime risks of aSAH for different risk factor profiles. The four strongest independent predictors for aSAH, namely current smoking (OR 6.0; 95% CI 4.1 to 8.6), a positive family history for aSAH (4.0; 95% CI 2.3 to 7.0), hypertension (2.4; 95% CI 1.5 to 3.8) and hypercholesterolaemia (0.2; 95% CI 0.1 to 0.4), were used in the final prediction model. This model had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.73 (95% CI 0.69 to 0.76). Depending on sex, age and the four predictors, the incidence of aSAH ranged from 0.4/100 000 to 298/100 000 person-years and lifetime risk between 0.02% and 7.2%. The incidence and lifetime risk of aSAH in the general population varies widely according to risk factor profiles. Whether persons with high risks benefit from screening should be assessed in cost-effectiveness studies.

  10. Leukemia Risk After Cardiac Fluoroscopic Interventions Stratified by Procedure Number, Exposure Latent Time, and Sex: A Nationwide Population-Based Case-Control Study.

    PubMed

    Wei, Kai-Che; Lin, Hon-Yi; Hung, Shih-Kai; Huang, Yu-Tung; Lee, Moon-Sing; Wang, Wen-Hua; Wu, Chieh-Shan; Su, Yu-Chieh; Shen, Bing-Jie; Tsai, Shiang-Jiun; Tsai, Wei-Ta; Chen, Liang-Cheng; Li, Chung-Yi; Chiou, Wen-Yen

    2016-03-01

    A number of cardiac fluoroscopic interventions have increased rapidly worldwide over the past decade. Percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty (PTCA) and stent implantation have become increasingly popular, and these advancements have allowed patients to receive repetitive treatments for restenosis. However, these advancements also significantly increase radiation exposure that may lead to higher cumulative doses of radiation. In the present study, a nationwide population-based case-controlled study was used to explore the risk of leukemia after cardiac angiographic fluoroscopic intervention.A total of 5026 patients with leukemia and 100,520 control patients matched for age and sex (1:20) by a propensity score method without any cancer history were enrolled using the Registry Data for Catastrophic Illness and the National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) of Taiwan between 2008 and 2010. All subjects were retrospectively surveyed (from year 2000) to determine receipt of cardiac fluoroscopic interventions. Data were analyzed using conditional logistic regression models, and estimated crude and adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence interval).After adjusting for age, gender, and comorbidities, PTCA was found to be associated with an increased risk of leukemia with an adjusted OR of 1.566 (95% CI, 1.282-1.912), whereas coronary angiography alone without PTCA and cardiac electrophysiologic study were not. Our results also showed that an increased frequency of PTCA and coronary angiography was associated with a higher risk of leukemia (adjusted OR: 1.326 to 1.530 [all P < 0.05]). Gender subgroup analyses demonstrated that men were associated with a higher risk of leukemia compared with women.These results provide additional data in the quantification of the long-term health effects of radiation exposure derived from the cardiac fluoroscopic diagnostic and therapeutic intervention. PTCA alone or PTCA with coronary angiography was associated with an

  11. A population-based twin study of the relationship between neuroticism and internalizing disorders.

    PubMed

    Hettema, John M; Neale, Michael C; Myers, John M; Prescott, Carol A; Kendler, Kenneth S

    2006-05-01

    The anxiety and depressive disorders exhibit high levels of lifetime comorbidity with one another. The authors examined how genetic and environmental factors shared by the personality trait neuroticism and seven internalizing disorders may help explain this comorbidity. Lifetime major depression, generalized anxiety disorder, panic disorder, agoraphobia, social phobia, animal phobia, situational phobia, and neuroticism were assessed in over 9,000 twins from male-male, female-female, and opposite-sex pairs through structured diagnostic interviews. Multivariate structural equation models were used to decompose the correlations between these phenotypes into genetic and environmental components, allowing for sex-specific factors. Genetic factors shared with neuroticism accounted for between one-third and one-half of the genetic risk across the internalizing disorders. When nonsignificant gender differences were removed from the models, the genetic correlations between neuroticism and each disorder were high, while individual-specific environmental correlations were substantially lower. In addition, the authors could identify a neuroticism-independent genetic factor that significantly increased risk for major depression, generalized anxiety disorder, and panic disorder. There is substantial, but not complete, overlap between the genetic factors that influence individual variation in neuroticism and those that increase liability across the internalizing disorders, helping to explain the high rates of comorbidity among the latter. This may have important implications for identifying the susceptibility genes for these conditions.

  12. The association between personality disorders with alcohol use and misuse: A population-based twin study.

    PubMed

    Long, E C; Aggen, S H; Neale, M C; Knudsen, G P; Krueger, R F; South, S C; Czajkowski, N; Nesvåg, R; Ystrom, E; Torvik, F A; Kendler, K S; Gillespie, N A; Reichborn-Kjennerud, T

    2017-05-01

    A clearer understanding of the etiological overlap between DSM-IV personality disorders (PDs) and alcohol use (AU) and alcohol use disorder (AUD) is needed. To our knowledge, no study has modeled the association between all 10 DSM-IV PDs and lifetime AU and AUD. The aim of the present study is to identify which PDs are most strongly associated with the phenotypic, genetic, and environmental risks of lifetime AU and AUD, and to determine if these associations are stable across time. Participants were Norwegian twins assessed at two waves. At Wave 1, 2801 twins were assessed for all 10 DSM-IV PD criteria, lifetime AU, and DSM-IV AUD criteria. At Wave 2, six of the 10 PDs were again assessed along with AU and AUD among 2393 twins. Univariate and multiple logistic regressions were run. Significant predictors were further analyzed using bivariate twin Cholesky decompositions. Borderline and antisocial PD criteria were the strongest predictors of AU and AUD across the two waves. Despite moderate phenotypic and genetic correlations, genetic variation in these PD criteria explained only 4% and 3% of the risks in AU, and 5% to 10% of the risks in AUD criteria, respectively. At Wave 2, these estimates increased to 8% and 23% for AU, and 17% and 33% for AUD. Among a large Norwegian twin sample, borderline and antisocial PD criteria were the strongest predictors of the phenotypic and genotypic liability to AU and AUD. This effect remained consistent across time. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Fundus Autofluorescence Lifetime Patterns in Retinitis Pigmentosa.

    PubMed

    Dysli, Chantal; Schürch, Kaspar; Pascal, Escher; Wolf, Sebastian; Zinkernagel, Martin S

    2018-04-01

    We investigated whether fundus autofluorescence (FAF) lifetimes in patients with retinitis pigmentosa display a disease-specific lifetime pattern. Fundus autofluorescence lifetime imaging ophthalmoscopy (FLIO) was performed in two spectral channels (498-560 and 560-720 nm) after excitation with a 473 nm pulsed laser in patients with retinitis pigmentosa and compared to healthy controls of a similar age range. Corresponding FAF intensity and spectral domain optical coherence tomography (OCT) data, as well as best corrected visual acuity (BCVA) were acquired and compared to fluorescence lifetime data. We investigated 43 eyes from 43 patients with retinitis pigmentosa (mean age 45 ± 15 years) and compared them to eyes of 13 age-matched healthy participants. Mean FAF lifetimes were prolonged in areas of photoreceptor atrophy with preserved retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) (P = 0.0036) and even longer in areas with total atrophy of photoreceptors and RPE (P = 0.0002). The prevalence of perifoveal ring structures characterized by prolonged fluorescence lifetimes in FLIO was higher (63% vs. 49%) and the rings were wider compared to the hyperautofluorescent rings in qualitative fundus autofluorescence intensity images. In the central fovea with intact retinal layer structure identified by OCT, fluorescence lifetimes were slightly prolonged compared to those of age-matched healthy controls (short spectral channel [SSC], P = 0.0044; long spectral channel [LSC], P = 0.0128). Short lifetimes within the macular center were negatively correlated with BCVA (R2 = 0.33, P < 0.0001) as well as the greatest diameter of the ellipsoid band in OCT. FLIO in retinitis pigmentosa reveals characteristic patterns that allow identification of areas of photoreceptor atrophy, RPE atrophy, and remaining photoreceptor segments in areas of RPE atrophy. Fluorescence lifetimes can be used to identify ellipsoid zone loss that correlates with functional parameters.

  14. A systematic review of economic evaluations of population-based sodium reduction interventions

    PubMed Central

    Hope, Silvia F.; Webster, Jacqui; Trieu, Kathy; Pillay, Arti; Ieremia, Merina; Bell, Colin; Snowdon, Wendy; Neal, Bruce; Moodie, Marj

    2017-01-01

    Objective To summarise evidence describing the cost-effectiveness of population-based interventions targeting sodium reduction. Methods A systematic search of published and grey literature databases and websites was conducted using specified key words. Characteristics of identified economic evaluations were recorded, and included studies were appraised for reporting quality using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist. Results Twenty studies met the study inclusion criteria and received a full paper review. Fourteen studies were identified as full economic evaluations in that they included both costs and benefits associated with an intervention measured against a comparator. Most studies were modelling exercises based on scenarios for achieving salt reduction and assumed effects on health outcomes. All 14 studies concluded that their specified intervention(s) targeting reductions in population sodium consumption were cost-effective, and in the majority of cases, were cost saving. Just over half the studies (8/14) were assessed as being of ‘excellent’ reporting quality, five studies fell into the ‘very good’ quality category and one into the ‘good’ category. All of the identified evaluations were based on modelling, whereby inputs for all the key parameters including the effect size were either drawn from published datasets, existing literature or based on expert advice. Conclusion Despite a clear increase in evaluations of salt reduction programs in recent years, this review identified relatively few economic evaluations of population salt reduction interventions. None of the studies were based on actual implementation of intervention(s) and the associated collection of new empirical data. The studies universally showed that population-based salt reduction strategies are likely to be cost effective or cost saving. However, given the reliance on modelling, there is a need for the effectiveness of new

  15. Estimating HIV Prevalence in Zimbabwe Using Population-Based Survey Data

    PubMed Central

    Chinomona, Amos; Mwambi, Henry Godwell

    2015-01-01

    Estimates of HIV prevalence computed using data obtained from sampling a subgroup of the national population may lack the representativeness of all the relevant domains of the population. These estimates are often computed on the assumption that HIV prevalence is uniform across all domains of the population. Use of appropriate statistical methods together with population-based survey data can enhance better estimation of national and subgroup level HIV prevalence and can provide improved explanations of the variation in HIV prevalence across different domains of the population. In this study we computed design-consistent estimates of HIV prevalence, and their respective 95% confidence intervals at both the national and subgroup levels. In addition, we provided a multivariable survey logistic regression model from a generalized linear modelling perspective for explaining the variation in HIV prevalence using demographic, socio-economic, socio-cultural and behavioural factors. Essentially, this study borrows from the proximate determinants conceptual framework which provides guiding principles upon which socio-economic and socio-cultural variables affect HIV prevalence through biological behavioural factors. We utilize the 2010–11 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey (2010–11 ZDHS) data (which are population based) to estimate HIV prevalence in different categories of the population and for constructing the logistic regression model. It was established that HIV prevalence varies greatly with age, gender, marital status, place of residence, literacy level, belief on whether condom use can reduce the risk of contracting HIV and level of recent sexual activity whereas there was no marked variation in HIV prevalence with social status (measured using a wealth index), method of contraceptive and an individual’s level of education. PMID:26624280

  16. External Validation of the Pathologic Nodal Staging Score for Prostate Cancer: A Population-based Study.

    PubMed

    Rieken, Malte; Kluth, Luis A; Seitz, Christian; Abufaraj, Mohammad; Foerster, Beat; Mathieu, Romain; Karakiewicz, Pierre I; Bachmann, Alexander; Briganti, Alberto; Rouprê, Morgan; Gönen, Mithat; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Seebacher, Veronika

    2017-08-24

    We sought to externally validate our pathologic nodal staging score (pNSS) model, which allows for quantification of the likelihood that a pathologically node-negative patient will not have lymph node (LN) metastasis after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer (PCa) in a population-based cohort. We analyzed data from 50,598 patients treated with radical prostatectomy and pelvic LN dissection using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. We estimated the sensitivity of pathologic nodal staging using a β-binomial model and developed a novel pNSS model, which represents the probability that a patient's PCa has been correctly staged as node negative as a function of the number of examined LNs. These findings were compared against those from the original cohort of 7135 patients. The mean and median number of LNs removed was 6.5 and 5, respectively (range, 1-89; interquartile range, 2-8), and 96.9% of the patients (n = 49,020) had stage pN0. Similar to the original cohort, the probability of missing a positive LN decreased with the increasing number of LNs examined. In both the validation and the original cohort, the number of LNs needed to correctly stage a patient's disease as node negative increased with more advanced tumor stage, higher Gleason sum, positive surgical margins, and higher preoperative prostate-specific antigen levels. We have confirmed that the number of examined LNs needed for adequate nodal staging in PCa depends on the pathologic tumor stage, Gleason sum, surgical margins status, and preoperative prostate-specific antigen. We externally validated our pNSS in a population-based cohort, which could help to refine decision-making regarding the administration of adjuvant therapy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Impact of fiber lifetime on network reliability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wilson, Peter; Stockton, David J.

    1994-09-01

    The modelling of optical fiber reliability has been extensively discussed, but there is little understanding of how the fatigue of deployed fiber due to stress corrosion and environmental corrosion contributes to the reliability of a telecommunications network. There are a number of models that can be used to calculate or predict the lifetime of optical fibers for both pristine conditions and conditions where zero stress ageing occurs (water immersion, high temperature, high humidity and the presence of chemicals). The failure rates for fiber can be combined with the failure rates for the other network components to give a figure for the network reliability which will indicate whether the network will be able to meet its Quality of Service (QoS) targets. A method for calculating fiber failure rates will be presented and the results for various environments will be compared with previous assumptions and with the failure rate due to cable dig-up. The increasing demand for tight bending of fiber in customer premises will be mentioned and its effect on network reliability discussed.

  18. Orbital Lifetime Analysis for Nanosatellites at LEO

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cubillos Jara, D. J.; Soliz Torrico, J. A.; Ramírez Suárez, O. L.

    2018-01-01

    Nanosatellites at low earth orbit (LEO) have multiple applications such as monitoring environmental conditions, measuring ionosphere properties, improving communications, among others. These applications have lead to increase the effort of estimating orbital lifetimes for nanosatellites because they define the maximum operational time of a mission. In this report, we estimate orbital lifetimes of nanosatellites at LEO taking into account the gravitational interaction, Earth deformations, atmospheric drag and satellite initial conditions. Highest, mean and lowest lifetimes for nanosatellites of 1U, 2U and 3U in an equatorial orbit are computed by assuming a density profile according to literature and hypothetical uncertainties.

  19. Contactless Spectral-dependent Charge Carrier Lifetime Measurements in Silicon Photovoltaic Materials

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roller, John; Hamadani, Behrang; Dagenais, Mario

    Charge carrier lifetime measurements in bulk or unfinished photovoltaic (PV) materials allow for a more accurate estimate of power conversion efficiency in completed solar cells. In this work, carrier lifetimes in PV-grade silicon wafers are obtained by way of quasi-steady state photoconductance measurements. These measurements use a contactless RF system coupled with varying narrow spectrum input LEDs, ranging in wavelength from 460 nm to 1030 nm. Spectral dependent lifetime measurements allow for determination of bulk and surface properties of the material, including the intrinsic bulk lifetime and the surface recombination velocity. The effective lifetimes are fit to an analytical physics-based model to determine the desired parameters. Passivated and non-passivated samples are both studied and are shown to have good agreement with the theoretical model.

  20. Familial risk of epilepsy: a population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Peljto, Anna L.; Barker-Cummings, Christie; Vasoli, Vincent M.; Leibson, Cynthia L.; Hauser, W. Allen; Buchhalter, Jeffrey R.

    2014-01-01

    Almost all previous studies of familial risk of epilepsy have had potentially serious methodological limitations. Our goal was to address these limitations and provide more rigorous estimates of familial risk in a population-based study. We used the unique resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to identify all 660 Rochester, Minnesota residents born in 1920 or later with incidence of epilepsy from 1935–94 (probands) and their 2439 first-degree relatives who resided in Olmsted County. We assessed incidence of epilepsy in relatives by comprehensive review of the relatives’ medical records, and estimated age-specific cumulative incidence and standardized incidence ratios for epilepsy in relatives compared with the general population, according to proband and relative characteristics. Among relatives of all probands, cumulative incidence of epilepsy to age 40 was 4.7%, and risk was increased 3.3-fold (95% confidence interval 2.75–5.99) compared with population incidence. Risk was increased to the greatest extent in relatives of probands with idiopathic generalized epilepsies (standardized incidence ratio 6.0) and epilepsies associated with intellectual or motor disability presumed present from birth, which we denoted ‘prenatal/developmental cause’ (standardized incidence ratio 4.3). Among relatives of probands with epilepsy without identified cause (including epilepsies classified as ‘idiopathic’ or ‘unknown cause’), risk was significantly increased for epilepsy of prenatal/developmental cause (standardized incidence ratio 4.1). Similarly, among relatives of probands with prenatal/developmental cause, risk was significantly increased for epilepsies without identified cause (standardized incidence ratio 3.8). In relatives of probands with generalized epilepsy, standardized incidence ratios were 8.3 (95% confidence interval 2.93–15.31) for generalized epilepsy and 2.5 (95% confidence interval 0.92–4.00) for focal epilepsy. In relatives of

  1. Exposure to ambient air pollution and the incidence of dementia: A population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Chen, Hong; Kwong, Jeffrey C; Copes, Ray; Hystad, Perry; van Donkelaar, Aaron; Tu, Karen; Brook, Jeffrey R; Goldberg, Mark S; Martin, Randall V; Murray, Brian J; Wilton, Andrew S; Kopp, Alexander; Burnett, Richard T

    2017-11-01

    Emerging studies have implicated air pollution in the neurodegenerative processes. Less is known about the influence of air pollution, especially at the relatively low levels, on developing dementia. We conducted a population-based cohort study in Ontario, Canada, where the concentrations of pollutants are among the lowest in the world, to assess whether air pollution exposure is associated with incident dementia. The study population comprised all Ontario residents who, on 1 April 2001, were 55-85years old, Canadian-born, and free of physician-diagnosed dementia (~2.1 million individuals). Follow-up extended until 2013. We used population-based health administrative databases with a validated algorithm to ascertain incident diagnosis of dementia as well as prevalent cases. Using satellite observations, land-use regression model, and an optimal interpolation method, we derived long-term average exposure to fine particulate matter (≤2.5μm in diameter) (PM 2.5 ), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), and ozone (O 3 ), respectively at the subjects' historical residences based on a population-based registry. We used multilevel spatial random-effects Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for individual and contextual factors, such as diabetes, brain injury, and neighborhood income. We conducted various sensitivity analyses, such as lagging exposure up to 10years and considering a negative control outcome for which no (or weaker) association with air pollution is expected. We identified 257,816 incident cases of dementia in 2001-2013. We found a positive association between PM 2.5 and dementia incidence, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.04 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03-1.05) for every interquartile-range increase in exposure to PM 2.5 . Similarly, NO 2 was associated with increased incidence of dementia (HR=1.10; 95% CI: 1.08-1.12). No association was found for O 3 . These associations were robust to all sensitivity analyses examined. These estimates translate to 6.1% of

  2. Proton lifetime from SU(5) unification in extra dimensions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alciati, Maria Laura; Feruglio, Ferruccio; Lin, Yin; Varagnolo, Alvise

    2005-03-01

    We provide detailed estimates of the proton lifetime in the context of simple supersymmetric SU(5) grand unified models with an extra compact spatial dimension, described by the orbifold S1/(Z2 × Z2') and by a large compactification scale Mc approx 1014÷1016 GeV. We focus on a class of models where the grand unified symmetry is broken by the compactification mechanism and where baryon violation proceeds mainly through gauge vector boson exchange so that the proton lifetime scales as Mc4. We carefully compute Mc from a next-to-leading analysis of gauge coupling unification and we find that Mc can only be predicted up to an overall factor 10+/-1. The simplest model, where the dominant decay mode is π0e+ and has no flavour suppression, is strongly constrained by existing data, but not totally ruled out. We also analyze models where some of the matter fields are localized in the extra space and proton decay is flavour suppressed. In models associated to anarchy in the neutrino sector the preferred decay channel is K+bar nu and the lifetime can be within the reach of the next generation of experiments.

  3. Population Based Analysis of Directional Information in Serial Deformation Tensor Morphometry

    PubMed Central

    Studholme, Colin; Cardenas, Valerie

    2012-01-01

    Deformation morphometry provides a sensitive approach to detecting and mapping subtle volume changes in the brain. Population based analyses of this data have been used successfully to detect characteristic changes in different neurodegenerative conditions. However, most studies have been limited to statistical mapping of the scalar volume change at each point in the brain, by evaluating the determinant of the Jacobian of the deformation field. In this paper we describe an approach to spatial normalisation and analysis of the full deformation tensor. The approach employs a spatial relocation and reorientation of tensors of each subject. Using the assumption of small changes, we use a linear modeling of effects of clinical variables on each deformation tensor component across a population. We illustrate the use of this approach by examining the pattern of significance and orientation of the volume change effects in recovery from alcohol abuse. Results show new local structure which was not apparent in the analysis of scalar volume changes. PMID:18044583

  4. Estimating risk factors for HIV infection among women in Mozambique using population-based survey data.

    PubMed

    Dias, Sara S; Mbofana, Francisco; Cassy, Sheyla R; Dias, Sónia; Augusto, Gonçalo F; Agadjanian, Victor; Martins, Maria R O

    2018-03-01

    The use of population-based survey data together with sound statistical methods can enhance better estimation of HIV risk factors and explain variations across subgroups of the population. The distribution and determinants of HIV infection in populations must be taken into consideration. We analysed data from the HIV Prevalence and Behaviour Survey in Mozambique aiming to find risk factors associated with HIV infection among Mozambican women. The paper provides a complex survey logistic regression model to explain the variation in HIV seropositivity using demographic, socio-economic and behavioural factors. Results show that women aged 25-29 years, living in female-headed households, living in richer households and those widowed, divorced or not living with a partner have higher odds of being HIV-positive. Findings from our study provide a unique and integrated perspective on risk factors for being HIV-positive among Mozambican women and could support the implementation of programmes aiming to reduce HIV infection in Mozambique.

  5. Waiting time disparities in breast cancer diagnosis and treatment: a population-based study in France.

    PubMed

    Molinié, F; Leux, C; Delafosse, P; Ayrault-Piault, S; Arveux, P; Woronoff, A S; Guizard, A V; Velten, M; Ganry, O; Bara, S; Daubisse-Marliac, L; Tretarre, B

    2013-10-01

    Waiting times are key indicators of a health's system performance, but are not routinely available in France. We studied waiting times for diagnosis and treatment according to patients' characteristics, tumours' characteristics and medical management options in a sample of 1494 breast cancers recorded in population-based registries. The median waiting time from the first imaging detection to the treatment initiation was 34 days. Older age, co-morbidity, smaller size of tumour, detection by organised screening, biopsy, increasing number of specimens removed, multidisciplinary consulting meetings and surgery as initial treatment were related to increased waiting times in multivariate models. Many of these factors were related to good practices guidelines. However, the strong influence of organised screening programme and the disparity of waiting times according to geographical areas were of concern. Better scheduling of diagnostic tests and treatment propositions should improve waiting times in the management of breast cancer in France. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. ASSOCIATON BETWEEN INTIMATE PARTNER VIOLENCE AND IRRITABLE BOWEL SYNDROME: A POPULATION-BASED STUDY IN NICARAGUA

    PubMed Central

    Becker-Dreps, Sylvia; Morgan, Douglas; Peña, Rodolfo; Cortes, Loreto; Martin, Christopher F.; Valladares, Eliette

    2010-01-01

    Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is a disabling functional gastrointestinal disorder, which serves as a model for abdominal pain syndromes. An association between intimate partner violence and IBS has been shown among Caucasian women in the industrialized world. To determine whether this relationship transcends cultural boundaries, we conducted a population-based, cross-sectional survey in Nicaragua, using the innovative Health and Demographic Surveillance System in the León province. Women who had experienced physical intimate partner violence had significantly increased risk of IBS (OR 2.08, 95% CI, 1.35, 3.21), as did those who had experienced sexual intimate partner violence (OR 2.85, 95% CI 1.45, 5.59). These findings argue for intimate partner violence screening among Latina women with IBS. PMID:20558772

  7. The Effects of Social Reforms on Mental Disability in China: Population-Based Study.

    PubMed

    Wang, Zhenjie; Zhang, Lei; Li, Ning; Guo, Chao; Chen, Gong; Zheng, Xiaoying

    2016-04-01

    Few studies have explored how mental disabilities have changed with the waves of Chinese social reforms that occurred between 1912 and 2006. The present study evaluated population-based data from the Second China National Sample Survey on Disability to investigate these trends and their effects on mental disabilities. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the association between social reforms and mental disabilities. The confounding variables considered were as follows: survey age, gender, residence in 2006, ethnicity, and living arrangements in 2006. The highest risks of mental disabilities were observed in subjects born during the Mao Zedong era. Subjects who experienced social turbulence during their early development may have increased risks of mental disabilities in adulthood. The results and discussion herein contribute to our understanding of mental disabilities in China within the context of changing political, socioeconomic, and health system conditions and a developing mental health system. © 2016 APJPH.

  8. Lifetime and Temperature of Incandescent Lamps.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Agrawal, Dulli C.; Menon, V. Jayaram

    1998-01-01

    Describes a procedure based on the assumption that during the rated lifetime of a light bulb roughly half of the radius of the filament evaporates. Explains how the filament's operating temperature can be deduced. (DDR)

  9. Seroprevalence of Helicobacter pylori in Hispanics living in Puerto Rico: A population-based study.

    PubMed

    González-Pons, María; Soto-Salgado, Marievelisse; Sevilla, Javier; Márquez-Lespier, Juan M; Morgan, Douglas; Pérez, Cynthia M; Cruz-Correa, Marcia

    2018-02-01

    Helicobacter pylori is an important etiologic factor for peptic ulcers and gastric cancer, one of the top ten leading causes of cancer death in Puerto Rico. However, the prevalence of H. pylori infections in this population was previously unknown. The aim of this study was to examine the seroprevalence of H. pylori and its associated risk factors in Puerto Rico. A cross-sectional study was designed using an existing population-based biorepository. Seropositivity was determined using the Premier ™ H. pylori immunoassay. Helicobacter pylori seroprevalence was estimated with 95% confidence using marginal standardization following logistic regression. To assess the risk factors associated with H. pylori seropositivity, a multivariable log-binomial model was fitted to estimate the prevalence ratio (PR) and its 95% confidence interval (95% CI). A total of 528 population-based serum samples were analyzed. The mean age of the study population was 41 ± 12 years, of whom 55.3% were females. The overall seroprevalence of H. pylori was 33.0% (95% CI = 28.3%-38.1%). Increasing age and having <12 years of education were significantly (P < .05) associated with H. pylori seropositivity in the multivariable model; however, residing in counties with low population density reached marginal significance (P = .085). We report that H. pylori infection is common among Hispanics living in Puerto Rico. The H. pylori seroprevalence observed in Puerto Rico is similar to the seroprevalence reported in the overall population of the United States. The association between H. pylori seroprevalence and the risk factors analyzed offers insight into the epidemiology of gastric cancer in Puerto Rico and warrants further investigation. © 2017 The Authors. Helicobacter Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Arsenic exposure and impaired lung function. Findings from a large population-based prospective cohort study.

    PubMed

    Parvez, Faruque; Chen, Yu; Yunus, Mahbub; Olopade, Christopher; Segers, Stephanie; Slavkovich, Vesna; Argos, Maria; Hasan, Rabiul; Ahmed, Alauddin; Islam, Tariqul; Akter, Mahmud M; Graziano, Joseph H; Ahsan, Habibul

    2013-10-01

    Exposure to arsenic through drinking water has been linked to respiratory symptoms, obstructive lung diseases, and mortality from respiratory diseases. Limited evidence for the deleterious effects on lung function exists among individuals exposed to a high dose of arsenic. To determine the deleterious effects on lung function that exist among individuals exposed to a high dose of arsenic. In 950 individuals who presented with any respiratory symptom among a population-based cohort of 20,033 adults, we evaluated the association between arsenic exposure, measured by well water and urinary arsenic concentrations measured at baseline, and post-bronchodilator-administered pulmonary function assessed during follow-up. For every one SD increase in baseline water arsenic exposure, we observed a lower level of FEV1 (-46.5 ml; P < 0.0005) and FVC (-53.1 ml; P < 0.01) in regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking, socioeconomic status, betel nut use, and arsenical skin lesions status. Similar inverse relationships were observed between baseline urinary arsenic and FEV1 (-48.3 ml; P < 0.005) and FVC (-55.2 ml; P < 0.01) in adjusted models. Our analyses also demonstrated a dose-related decrease in lung function with increasing levels of baseline water and urinary arsenic. This association remained significant in never-smokers and individuals without skin lesions, and was stronger in male smokers. Among male smokers and individuals with skin lesions, every one SD increase in water arsenic was related to a significant reduction of FEV1 (-74.4 ml, P < 0.01; and -116.1 ml, P < 0.05) and FVC (-72.8 ml, P = 0.02; and -146.9 ml, P = 0.004), respectively. This large population-based study confirms that arsenic exposure is associated with impaired lung function and the deleterious effect is evident at low- to moderate-dose range.

  11. Dietary fatty acids and insulin secretion: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Rojo-Martínez, G; Esteva, I; Ruiz de Adana, M S; García-Almeida, J M; Tinahones, F; Cardona, F; Morcillo, S; García-Escobar, E; García-Fuentes, E; Soriguer, F

    2006-10-01

    Few epidemiological studies have examined the relationship of dietary fatty acids, especially MUFA, with the interrelation between insulin secretion and insulin resistance. We assessed the relation of dietary fatty acids with insulin secretion in a free-living population. This cross-sectional, population-based study was undertaken in Pizarra, a small town in Spain. Anthropometrical data were collected for 1226 persons selected randomly from the municipal census, 538 of whom (randomly chosen) were given a prospective, quantitative, 7-day nutritional questionnaire. The fatty acid composition of the serum phospholipids was used as a biological marker of the type of fat consumed. Beta-cell function (betaCFI) and insulin-resistance index (IRI) were estimated by the Homeostasis Model Assessment. To determine which factors influence the variability of the betaCFI, we analyzed the variance of the betaCFI according to sex, the presence of carbohydrate metabolism disorders and the different components of the diet, adjusting the models for age, body mass index (BMI) and IRI. The dietary MUFA and polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) contributed to the variability of the betaCFI, whereas only the proportion of serum phospholipid MUFA, but neither the saturated fatty acids nor the PUFA accounted for part of the variability of the betaCFI in a multiple regression analysis. The results of this population-based study corroborate the results of other clinical and experimental studies suggesting a favorable relationship of MUFA with beta-cell insulin secretion. Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria, Junta de Andalucía and the Asociación Maimónides.

  12. Lifetimes of Stratospheric Ozone-Depleting Substances, Their Replacements, and Related Species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Newman, P. A.; Ko, M. K.; Reimann, S.; Strahan, S. E.; Atlas, E. L.; Burkholder, J. B.; Chipperfield, M.; Engel, A.; Liang, Q.; Plumb, R. A.; Stolarski, R. S.

    2013-12-01

    Estimating the average lifetime of a chemical in the atmosphere is crucial to understanding its current and future atmospheric concentration. Furthermore, for both ozone depleting substances (ODSs) and greenhouse gases, information on their lifetimes is of paramount importance for obtaining future estimates for ozone depletion and climate forcing. The 'Lifetimes of Stratospheric Ozone-Depleting Substances, Their Replacements, and Related Species', under the World Climate Research Programme/Stratospheric Processes And their Role in Climate project, was completed in August 2013. The goal was to estimate both lifetimes and uncertainties. In this presentation we will provide: 1) an overview of key aspects of the definitions of lifetimes, 2) discuss the extensively revised photochemical values and uncertainties for obtaining lifetimes, 3) show new observational and 4) modeling estimates of lifetimes, and finally, 5) show new recommendations for the steady-state atmospheric lifetimes of 27 long-lived species. New findings include: * New chemical kinetic and photochemical information on the uncertainties associated with the Lyman-a absorption cross-sections, and revisions of absorption cross-section parameterizations for several chlorofluorocarbons. * State-of-the-art chemistry-climate models (CCMs) were used to estimate lifetimes over the course of the 21st century. Projected increases of the Brewer-Dobson circulation suggest that lifetimes should be shorter during the 21st century. However, the recovery of ozone in the CCMs shows that the photolysis of many species will decline, yielding only small changes in lifetimes of most species * The CFC-11 recommended lifetime increases to 52 years from the WMO (2011) value of 45 years. The most likely range is narrowed to 43-67 years. * The 44 year steady-state lifetime of CCl4 due to atmospheric loss determined in this report is substantially longer than the 35 years from WMO (2011). However, inclusion of the land and ocean

  13. Fluorescence Lifetime Imaging for Breast Cancer Detection

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1997-07-01

    Introduction With the development of near-infrared red (NIR) emitting laser diodes and the realization that NIR light can travel several centimeters through...fluorescent yield and lifetime from multiply scattered light re- emitted from random media" manuscript: "The role of higher order scattering in solutions to the...multiply scattered light re- emitted from random media," involved reconstruction of lifetime, c, and the product of the quantum efficiency and absorption

  14. Genetic selection for lifetime reproductive performance.

    PubMed

    Clutter, A C

    2009-01-01

    Genetic improvement of sow lifetime reproductive performance has value from both the economic perspectives of pork producers and the pork industry, but also from the perspective of ethical and animal welfare concerns by the general public. Genetic potential for piglets produced from individual litters is a primary determinant of lifetime prolificacy, but females must be able to sustain productivity without injury or death beyond the achievement of positive net present value. Evidence exists for between- and within-line genetic variation in sow lifetime performance, suggesting that improvements may be made by both line choices and genetic selection within lines. However, some of the same barriers to accurate within-line selection that apply to individual litter traits also present challenges to genetic selection for sow lifetime prolificacy: generally low heritabilites, sex-limited expression, expression after the age that animals are typically selected, and unfavorable genetic correlations with other traits in the profit function. In addition, there is an inherent conflict within the genetic nucleus herds where selections take place between the goal of shortened generation interval to accelerate genetic progress and the expression of sow lifetime traits. A proliferation in the industry of commercial multipliers with direct genetic ties and routine record flows to genetic nucleus herds provides a framework for accurate estimates of relevant genetic variances and covariances, and estimation of breeding values for sow lifetime traits that can be used in genetic selection.

  15. Predicting Hall Thruster Operational Lifetime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Manzella, David; Yim, John; Boyd, Iain

    2004-01-01

    A simple analytic model predicted Hall thruster channel erosion based on thruster geometry, operating conditions, and magnetic field configuration. This model relied on a one-dimensional representation of the plasma with a fixed ionization fraction and variable ion energies based on the magnetic field distribution. Sputtering was modeled as the result of elastic scattering of ions by neutrals within the channel. Not all scattered ions and neutrals were assumed to reach the channel walls as a result of additional subsequent scattering events. Incorporating this phenomenon resulted in a greater predicted decrease in erosion rate with time than predicted based only on geometric effects. Results from this model were compared to SPT 100 experimental erosion data.

  16. Molecular Probes for Fluorescence Lifetime Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Sarder, Pinaki; Maji, Dolonchampa; Achilefu, Samuel

    2015-01-01

    Visualization of biological processes and pathologic conditions at the cellular and tissue levels largely rely on the use of fluorescence intensity signals from fluorophores or their bioconjugates. To overcome the concentration dependency of intensity measurements, evaluate subtle molecular interactions, and determine biochemical status of intracellular or extracellular microenvironments, fluorescence lifetime (FLT) imaging has emerged as a reliable imaging method complementary to intensity measurements. Driven by a wide variety of dyes exhibiting stable or environment-responsive FLTs, information multiplexing can be readily accomplished without the need for ratiometric spectral imaging. With knowledge of the fluorescent states of the molecules, it is entirely possible to predict the functional status of biomolecules or microevironment of cells. Whereas the use of FLT spectroscopy and microscopy in biological studies is now well established, in vivo imaging of biological processes based on FLT imaging techniques is still evolving. This review summarizes recent advances in the application of the FLT of molecular probes for imaging cells and small animal models of human diseases. It also highlights some challenges that continue to limit the full realization of the potential of using FLT molecular probes to address diverse biological problems, and outlines areas of potential high impact in the future. PMID:25961514

  17. Predicting Lifetime of a Thermomechanically Loaded Component

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murthy, Pappu L. N.; Gyekenyesi, John Z.; Mital, Subodh; Brewer, David N.

    2006-01-01

    NASALIFE is a computer program for predicting the lifetime, as affected by low cycle fatigue (LCF) and creep rupture, of a structural component subject to temporally varying, multiaxial thermomechanical loads. The component could be, for example, part of an aircraft turbine engine. Empirical data from LCF tests, creep rupture tests, and static tensile tests are used as references for predicting the number of missions the component can withstand under a given thermomechanical loading condition. The user prepares an input file containing the creep-rupture and cyclic-fatigue information, temperature-dependent material properties, and mission loading and control flags. The creep rupture information can be entered in tabular form as stress versus life or by means of parameters of the Larson-Miller equation. The program uses the Walker mean-stress model to adjust predicted life for ranges of the ratio between the maximum and minimum stresses. Data representing complex load cycles are reduced by the rainflow counting method. Miner's rule is utilized to combine the damage at different load levels. Finally, the program determines the total damage due to creep and combines it with the fatigue damage due to the cyclic loading and predicts the approximate number of missions a component can endure before failing.

  18. Phonon-lifetimes in demixing systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Davaasambuu, J.; Güthoff, F.; Petri, M.; Hradil, K.; Schober, H.; Ollivier, J.; Eckold, G.

    2012-06-01

    The dynamics of silver-alkali halide mixed single crystals (AgxNa1-xBr, x = 0.23, 0.35, 0.40 and 0.70) were studied by inelastic neutron scattering during the process of spinodal decomposition. Using the thermal three-axes spectrometer PUMA as well as the time-of-flight spectrometer IN5, the time evolution of phonons was observed in time-resolved, stroboscopic measurements. Complementary to the study of long wavelength acoustic phonons, as studied previously, we extended these investigations to Brillouin-zone boundary modes that are particularly sensitive to variations of the local structure. Starting from the homogeneous mixed phase the behaviour of these modes during demixing is observed in real-time. A simple dynamical model based on local structure variants helps to interpret the results. It is shown that the phonon lifetimes vary strongly during the phase separation and increase drastically during the coarsening process. Up to a critical size of precipitates of about 10 nm, zone-boundary modes are found to be strongly damped, while beyond the line widths are reduced to the experimental resolution. This finding leads to the conclusion that the typical mean free path of these modes is of the order of 10 nm, which corresponds to 20 unit cells.

  19. Population-Based Study of Sleep Apnea in Pregnancy and Maternal and Infant Outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Bin, Yu Sun; Cistulli, Peter A.; Ford, Jane B.

    2016-01-01

    Study Objectives: To examine the association between sleep apnea and pregnancy outcomes in a large population-based cohort. Methods: Population-based cohort study using linked birth and hospital records was conducted in New South Wales, Australia. Participants were all women who gave birth from 2002 to 2012 (n = 636,227). Sleep apnea in the year before pregnancy or during pregnancy was identified from hospital records. Outcomes of interest were gestational diabetes, pregnancy hypertension, planned delivery, caesarean section, preterm birth, perinatal death, 5-minute Apgar score, admission to neonatal intensive care or special care nursery, and infant size for gestational age. Maternal outcomes were identified using a combination of hospital and birth records. Infant outcomes came from the birth record. Modified Poisson regression models were used to examine associations between sleep apnea and each outcome taking into account maternal age, country of birth, socioeconomic disadvantage, smoking, obesity, parity, pre-existing diabetes and hypertension. Results: Sleep apnea was significantly associated with pregnancy hypertension (adjusted RR 1.43; 95% CI 1.18–1.73), planned delivery (1.15; 1.07–1.23), preterm birth (1.50; 1.21–1.84), 5-minute Apgar < 7 (1.60; 1.07–2.38), admission to neonatal intensive care/special care nursery (1.26; 1.11–1.44), large-for-gestational-age infants (1.27; 1.04–1.55) but not with gestational diabetes (1.09; 0.82–1.46), caesarean section (1.06; 0.96–1.17), perinatal death (1.73; 0.92–3.25), or small-for-gestational-age infants (0.81; 0.61–1.08). Conclusions: Sleep apnea is associated with higher rates of obstetric complications and intervention, as well as preterm delivery. Future research should examine if these are independent of obstetric history. Citation: Bin YS, Cistulli PA, Ford JB. Population-based study of sleep apnea in pregnancy and maternal and infant outcomes. J Clin Sleep Med 2016;12(6):871–877. PMID

  20. Cardiovascular Disease Mortality After Chemotherapy or Surgery for Testicular Nonseminoma: A Population-Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Fung, Chunkit; Fossa, Sophie D.; Milano, Michael T.; Sahasrabudhe, Deepak M.; Peterson, Derick R.; Travis, Lois B.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Increased risks of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with testicular cancer (TC) given chemotherapy in European studies were largely restricted to long-term survivors and included patients from the 1960s. Few population-based investigations have quantified CVD mortality during, shortly after, and for two decades after TC diagnosis in the era of cisplatin-based chemotherapy. Patients and Methods Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for CVD and absolute excess risks (AERs; number of excess deaths per 10,000 person-years) were calculated for 15,006 patients with testicular nonseminoma reported to the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program (1980 to 2010) who initially received chemotherapy (n = 6,909) or surgery (n = 8,097) without radiotherapy and accrued 60,065 and 81,227 person-years of follow-up, respectively. Multivariable modeling evaluated effects of age, treatment, extent of disease, and other factors on CVD mortality. Results Significantly increased CVD mortality occurred after chemotherapy (SMR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.78; n = 54) but not surgery (SMR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.60 to 1.07; n = 50). Significant excess deaths after chemotherapy were restricted to the first year after TC diagnosis (SMR, 5.31; AER, 13.90; n = 11) and included cerebrovascular disease (SMR, 21.72; AER, 7.43; n = 5) and heart disease (SMR, 3.45; AER, 6.64; n = 6). In multivariable analyses, increased CVD mortality after chemotherapy was confined to the first year after TC diagnosis (hazard ratio, 4.86; 95% CI, 1.25 to 32.08); distant disease (P < .05) and older age at diagnosis (P < .01) were independent risk factors. Conclusion This is the first population-based study, to our knowledge, to quantify short- and long-term CVD mortality after TC diagnosis. The increased short-term risk of CVD deaths should be further explored in analytic studies that enumerate incident events and can serve to develop comprehensive evidence-based approaches

  1. Cardiovascular Disease Mortality After Chemotherapy or Surgery for Testicular Nonseminoma: A Population-Based Study.

    PubMed

    Fung, Chunkit; Fossa, Sophie D; Milano, Michael T; Sahasrabudhe, Deepak M; Peterson, Derick R; Travis, Lois B

    2015-10-01

    Increased risks of incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with testicular cancer (TC) given chemotherapy in European studies were largely restricted to long-term survivors and included patients from the 1960s. Few population-based investigations have quantified CVD mortality during, shortly after, and for two decades after TC diagnosis in the era of cisplatin-based chemotherapy. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) for CVD and absolute excess risks (AERs; number of excess deaths per 10,000 person-years) were calculated for 15,006 patients with testicular nonseminoma reported to the population-based Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program (1980 to 2010) who initially received chemotherapy (n=6,909) or surgery (n=8,097) without radiotherapy and accrued 60,065 and 81,227 person-years of follow-up, respectively. Multivariable modeling evaluated effects of age, treatment, extent of disease, and other factors on CVD mortality. Significantly increased CVD mortality occurred after chemotherapy (SMR, 1.36; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.78; n=54) but not surgery (SMR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.60 to 1.07; n=50). Significant excess deaths after chemotherapy were restricted to the first year after TC diagnosis (SMR, 5.31; AER, 13.90; n=11) and included cerebrovascular disease (SMR, 21.72; AER, 7.43; n=5) and heart disease (SMR, 3.45; AER, 6.64; n=6). In multivariable analyses, increased CVD mortality after chemotherapy was confined to the first year after TC diagnosis (hazard ratio, 4.86; 95% CI, 1.25 to 32.08); distant disease (P<.05) and older age at diagnosis (P<.01) were independent risk factors. This is the first population-based study, to our knowledge, to quantify short- and long-term CVD mortality after TC diagnosis. The increased short-term risk of CVD deaths should be further explored in analytic studies that enumerate incident events and can serve to develop comprehensive evidence-based approaches for risk stratification and application of preventive and

  2. Lifetime History of Traumatic Brain Injury and Current Disability Among Ohio Adults.

    PubMed

    Yi, Honggang; Corrigan, John D; Singichetti, Bhavna; Bogner, Jennifer A; Manchester, Kara; Guo, Jinhong; Yang, Jingzhen

    2017-10-27

    To examine the associations between lifetime history of traumatic brain injury (TBI) with loss of consciousness (LOC) and several types of current disability among adult, noninstitutionalized residents of Ohio. 2014 Ohio Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System participants (n = 6998). Statewide population-based survey. Lifetime history of TBI with LOC (number and severity of injury, age of first injury), and number and type of disability (vision, cognition, mobility, self-care, and/or independent living). Of the 6998 participants, 1325 reported lifetime history of TBI with LOC, and 1959 reported currently having one or more disabilities. When weighted, these represented 21.7% and 23.7% of Ohio's noninstitutionalized adult population, respectively. Adults with a history of TBI with LOC showed greater odds of any disability compared with adults with no history (odds ratio = 2.49; 95% confidence interval = 1.97-3.15). The likelihood of having any and each type of disability increased as the number of TBIs or the severity of worst TBI increased, regardless of sustaining first TBI before or after the age of 15 years. Lifetime history of TBI with LOC is significantly associated with disability among Ohio adults. Further research on the natural course of the relation and preventive strategies is warranted.

  3. Evaluation of the method to derive the stratospheric lifetime from observed tracer-tracer-correlations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ostermöller, Jennifer; Boenisch, Harald; Engel, Andreas; Liang, Qing

    2013-04-01

    The atmospheric lifetime of a trace gas is defined as the ratio of its global atmospheric burden to its annually averaged global loss rate. Here, we are interested in the lifetimes of the dominant ozone-depleting substances (ODS), which are the prerequisite for the calculation of their ozone-depletion potentials (ODPs). Due to the fact that there is some evidence that the lifetimes for some important ODSs like CFC-11 may be somewhat longer than reported in past WMO assessments the re-evaluation of the dominant ODP lifetimes will be done in the framework of SPARC. Some of the most important ODSs, i.e. CFCs, have solely stratospheric sinks and their stratospheric equals their atmospheric lifetime. For these compounds, the use of tracer-tracer correlation as described by Volk et al. (1997) is the only way that allows to calculate stratospheric lifetimes from solely observations. We will present an evaluation of this method using the results of the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM). Hereby, the modelled lifetime serves as an independent reference for the lifetime calculated from the tracer-tracer correlation consistently derived from the same model experiment. We will discuss the implications of these results on the validity and applicability of the method for lifetime calculations described by Volk et al. (1997). Volk, C. M., Elkins, J. W., Fahey, D. W., Dutton, G. S., Gilligan, J. M., Loewenstein, M., Podolske, J. R., Chan, K. R., and Gunson, M. R.: Evaluation of source gas lifetimes from stratospheric observations, J. Geophys. Res., 102, 25543-25564, 1997.

  4. Lifetimes of local and hyperspherical vibrational resonances of ABA molecules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisseling, R. H.; Kosloff, R.; Manz, J.; Mrugała, F.; Römelt, J.; Weichselbaumer, G.

    1987-03-01

    The complete spectrum of vibrationally excited ABA* molecular resonance lifetimes is evaluated using the simple Rosen-Thiele-Wilson model of coupled Morse oscillators. Two complementary methods are used: First, unimolecular dissociative resonance wave functions are propagated in time by the Fourier method, where the initial wave functions are obtained as an approximation by linear combinations of symmetry-adapted products of Morse functions. Second, bimolecular reaction S matrices are propagated along the hyperspherical radius of the system giving the diagonalized lifetime matrix, which is analyzed for resonance lifetimes and energies. The resulting uni- and bimolecular resonance energies agree within ±0.002 eV and the lifetimes within ±30%. Uni- and bimolecular assignments of gerade (+) and ungerade (-) ABA* symmetries agree perfectly. On the average, the unimolecular decay times decrease as the resonance energies increase from the ABA*→A+BA to about 3/4 of the A+B+A dissociation threshold; even more highly excited resonances tend to be slightly more stabilized. Superimposed on this overall nonmonotonous energy dependence is a strong, 1-2 orders of magnitude variation of lifetimes, indicating substantial mode selectivity for the decay of individual resonances, irrespective of the excitation energy. The mode selectivity is investigated for hyperspherical mode resonances with lobes extending across the potential valleys, in contrast with local mode resonances with frontier lobes pointing towards the valleys. On the average, hyperspherical mode resonances decay at a slower rate than local mode resonances. This conclusion agrees with our previous analysis of low energy ABA* resonances, and with Hose and Taylor's analysis of the Hénon-Heiles system. However, these correlations are also violated by several important exceptions: the ABA* system has many slowly, but also a few rapidly, decaying hyperspherical resonances.

  5. Incidence and Risk Factors of Insomnia in a Population-Based Sample

    PubMed Central

    LeBlanc, Mélanie; Mérette, Chantal; Savard, Josée; Ivers, Hans; Baillargeon, Lucie; Morin, Charles M.

    2009-01-01

    effective public health prevention and intervention programs to promote better sleep quality. Citation: LeBlanc M; Mérette C; Savard J; Ivers H; Baillargeon L; Morin CM. Incidence and risk factors of insomnia in a population-based sample. SLEEP 2009;32(8):1027-1037. PMID:19725254

  6. Fission barrier heights and lifetimes for heavy and superheavy nuclei

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bartel, J.; Dobrowolski, A.; Nerlo-Pomorska, B.; Pomorski, K.; Ivanyuk, F. A.

    2009-10-01

    Ground-state masses, fission barrier heights and α lifetimes for actinide and trans-actinide nuclei are determined in the framework of the macroscopic-microscopic model with the Lublin-Strasbourg Drop, the Strutinsky shell-correction method and the Modified Funny-Hills shape parametrization accounting for elongation, neck formation, left-right asymmetry and non-axality together with the Yukawa folding procedure. Fission barrier height are nicely reproduced in our approach which contains no adjustable parameter.