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Sample records for population-based lifetime modeling

  1. Violent and sexual behaviors and lifetime use of crack cocaine: a population-based study in Brazil.

    PubMed

    Narvaez, Joana C M; Jansen, Karen; Pinheiro, Ricardo T; Kapczinski, Flávio; Silva, Ricardo A; Pechansky, Flávio; Magalhães, Pedro V S

    2014-08-01

    To estimate the prevalence of lifetime use of crack cocaine and to assess associations with violent and sexual behaviors in young adults selected from the general population of Pelotas, Southern Brazil. This cross-sectional population-based study included 1,560 participants aged 18-24 years. The use of alcohol and other substances, including crack cocaine, was assessed using the alcohol, smoking and substance involvement screening test. Other variables included violent behaviors, firearm possession, and sexual risk behaviors. The frequency of antisocial personality disorder was also investigated. Associations were analyzed using a crude model and models adjusted for sex, social class, and the use of snorted cocaine. Lifetime prevalence of crack cocaine use was 2.51 %, and it was higher among males and individuals coming from more vulnerable social classes (D or E). In the final multivariate models, lifetime use of crack cocaine was associated with episodes of aggression and firearm possession, as well as with a higher chance of not having used condom in the last sexual intercourse. In less conservative models, crack cocaine use was associated with other violent and sexual risk behaviors. The strong association observed between lifetime use of crack cocaine and different violent and sexual risk behaviors underscores relevant characteristics of people who use crack cocaine. Improving our understanding of possible causal chains leading to such associations should be a priority in future studies.

  2. Sex differences in lifetime risk and first manifestation of cardiovascular disease: prospective population based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Leening, Maarten J G; Ferket, Bart S; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Kavousi, Maryam; Deckers, Jaap W; Nieboer, Daan; Heeringa, Jan; Portegies, Marileen L P; Hofman, Albert; Ikram, M Arfan; Hunink, M G Myriam; Franco, Oscar H; Stricker, Bruno H; Witteman, Jacqueline C M; Roos-Hesselink, Jolien W

    2014-11-17

    To evaluate differences in first manifestations of cardiovascular disease between men and women in a competing risks framework. Prospective population based cohort study. People living in the community in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. 8419 participants (60.9% women) aged ≥ 55 and free from cardiovascular disease at baseline. First diagnosis of coronary heart disease (myocardial infarction, revascularisation, and coronary death), cerebrovascular disease (stroke, transient ischaemic attack, and carotid revascularisation), heart failure, or other cardiovascular death; or death from non-cardiovascular causes. Data were used to calculate lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease and its first incident manifestations adjusted for competing non-cardiovascular death. During follow-up of up to 20.1 years, 2888 participants developed cardiovascular disease (826 coronary heart disease, 1198 cerebrovascular disease, 762 heart failure, and 102 other cardiovascular death). At age 55, overall lifetime risks of cardiovascular disease were 67.1% (95% confidence interval 64.7% to 69.5%) for men and 66.4% (64.2% to 68.7%) for women. Lifetime risks of first incident manifestations of cardiovascular disease in men were 27.2% (24.1% to 30.3%) for coronary heart disease, 22.8% (20.4% to 25.1%) for cerebrovascular disease, 14.9% (13.3% to 16.6%) for heart failure, and 2.3% (1.6% to 2.9%) for other deaths from cardiovascular disease. For women the figures were 16.9% (13.5% to 20.4%), 29.8% (27.7% to 31.9%), 17.5% (15.9% to 19.2%), and 2.1% (1.6% to 2.7%), respectively. Differences in the number of events that developed over the lifespan in women compared with men (per 1000) were -7 for any cardiovascular disease, -102 for coronary heart disease, 70 for cerebrovascular disease, 26 for heart failure, and -1 for other cardiovascular death; all outcomes manifested at a higher age in women. Patterns were similar when analyses were restricted to hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease

  3. Lifetime sexual violence and childbirth expectations - A Norwegian population based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Henriksen, Lena; Schei, Berit; Lukasse, Mirjam

    2016-05-01

    this study aimed to explore the association between lifetime sexual violence and expectations about childbirth. Norwegian population-based cohort study. women presenting for routine ultrasound examinations were recruited to the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study between 1999 and 2008. 78,660 pregnant women. sexual violence and expectations about childbirth were self-reported during pregnancy using postal questionnaires. Risk estimations were performed using multivariable logistic regression analysis and stratified by parity. fear of childbirth, the thoughts about pain relief, worries about the infant's health and looking forward to the arrival of the infant. of 78,660 women, 18.4% reported a history of sexual violence and 0.9% were exposed to sexual violence within the last 12 months, including during the current pregnancy. We found that nulliparous women who reported previous or recent sexual violence had a decrease in the odds of looking forward to the arrival of the infant with an AOR of 0.8 (95% CI 0.7-0.9) and 0.4 (95% CI 0.3-0.6), respectively, compared to non-abused women. The same pattern was observed among multiparous women and they were more likely to report worries about the infant's health. Severe sexual violence (rape) was associated with concerns about childbirth, especially for nulliparous women that were more likely to express fear of birth, a hope for a pain-free birth, a desire for caesarean section and worries about the infant's health than non-exposed women. women with a lifetime exposure to sexual violence, both past experiences and within the last 12 months, were less likely to look forward to the arrival of the infant than non-exposed women, and they were more likely to worry about the infant's health. Women with experiences of severe sexual violence (rape) had more concerns about childbirth than women without this experience. This finding shows that exploring women's attitudes toward childbirth may work as an approach when examining

  4. Occupational self-coding and automatic recording (OSCAR): a novel web-based tool to collect and code lifetime job histories in large population-based studies.

    PubMed

    De Matteis, Sara; Jarvis, Deborah; Young, Heather; Young, Alan; Allen, Naomi; Potts, James; Darnton, Andrew; Rushton, Lesley; Cullinan, Paul

    2017-03-01

    Objectives The standard approach to the assessment of occupational exposures is through the manual collection and coding of job histories. This method is time-consuming and costly and makes it potentially unfeasible to perform high quality analyses on occupational exposures in large population-based studies. Our aim was to develop a novel, efficient web-based tool to collect and code lifetime job histories in the UK Biobank, a population-based cohort of over 500 000 participants. Methods We developed OSCAR (occupations self-coding automatic recording) based on the hierarchical structure of the UK Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) 2000, which allows individuals to collect and automatically code their lifetime job histories via a simple decision-tree model. Participants were asked to find each of their jobs by selecting appropriate job categories until they identified their job title, which was linked to a hidden 4-digit SOC code. For each occupation a job title in free text was also collected to estimate Cohen's kappa (κ) inter-rater agreement between SOC codes assigned by OSCAR and an expert manual coder. Results OSCAR was administered to 324 653 UK Biobank participants with an existing email address between June and September 2015. Complete 4-digit SOC-coded lifetime job histories were collected for 108 784 participants (response rate: 34%). Agreement between the 4-digit SOC codes assigned by OSCAR and the manual coder for a random sample of 400 job titles was moderately good [κ=0.45, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.42-0.49], and improved when broader job categories were considered (κ=0.64, 95% CI 0.61-0.69 at a 1-digit SOC-code level). Conclusions OSCAR is a novel, efficient, and reasonably reliable web-based tool for collecting and automatically coding lifetime job histories in large population-based studies. Further application in other research projects for external validation purposes is warranted.

  5. Prevalence of Self-Reported Lifetime History of Traumatic Brain Injury and Associated Disability: A Statewide Population-Based Survey.

    PubMed

    Whiteneck, Gale G; Cuthbert, Jeffrey P; Corrigan, John D; Bogner, Jennifer A

    2016-01-01

    To investigate the prevalence of all severities of traumatic brain injury (TBI), regardless of treatment setting, and their associated negative outcomes. A total of 2701 adult Coloradoans. A statewide, population-based, random digit-dialed telephone survey. The lifetime history of TBI was assessed by a modification of the Ohio State University TBI Identification Method; activity limitation and life satisfaction were also assessed. The distribution of self-reported lifetime injury was as follows: 19.8%, no injury; 37.7%, injury but no TBI; 36.4%, mild TBI; and 6.0%, moderate-severe TBI. Of those reporting a TBI, 23.1% were hospitalized, 38.5% were treated in an emergency department, 9.8% were treated in a physician's office, and 27.5% did not seek medical care. A clear gradient of activity limitations and low life satisfaction was seen, with the highest proportions of these negative outcomes occurring in people reporting more severe TBI and the lowest proportions in those not reporting a TBI. Approximately twice as many people reported activity limitations and low life satisfaction after nonhospitalized TBI compared with hospitalized TBI. This investigation highlights the seriousness of TBI as a public health problem and the importance of including all severities of TBI, no matter where, or if treated, in estimating the prevalence of disability co-occurring with TBI.

  6. Modelling lifetime data with multivariate Tweedie distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nor, Siti Rohani Mohd; Yusof, Fadhilah; Bahar, Arifah

    2017-05-01

    This study aims to measure the dependence between individual lifetimes by applying multivariate Tweedie distribution to the lifetime data. Dependence between lifetimes incorporated in the mortality model is a new form of idea that gives significant impact on the risk of the annuity portfolio which is actually against the idea of standard actuarial methods that assumes independent between lifetimes. Hence, this paper applies Tweedie family distribution to the portfolio of lifetimes to induce the dependence between lives. Tweedie distribution is chosen since it contains symmetric and non-symmetric, as well as light-tailed and heavy-tailed distributions. Parameter estimation is modified in order to fit the Tweedie distribution to the data. This procedure is developed by using method of moments. In addition, the comparison stage is made to check for the adequacy between the observed mortality and expected mortality. Finally, the importance of including systematic mortality risk in the model is justified by the Pearson's chi-squared test.

  7. Models for Battery Reliability and Lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G. H.; Neubauer, J.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-03-01

    Models describing battery degradation physics are needed to more accurately understand how battery usage and next-generation battery designs can be optimized for performance and lifetime. Such lifetime models may also reduce the cost of battery aging experiments and shorten the time required to validate battery lifetime. Models for chemical degradation and mechanical stress are reviewed. Experimental analysis of aging data from a commercial iron-phosphate lithium-ion (Li-ion) cell elucidates the relative importance of several mechanical stress-induced degradation mechanisms.

  8. The association between a lifetime history of low back injury in a motor vehicle collision and future low back pain: a population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Nolet, Paul S; Kristman, Vicki L; Côté, Pierre; Carroll, Linda J; Cassidy, J David

    2017-04-08

    This population-based cohort study investigated the association between a lifetime history of a low back injury in a motor vehicle collision (MVC) and future troublesome low back pain. Participants with a history of a low back injury in a motor vehicle collision who had recovered (no or mild low back pain) were compared to those without a history of injury. Current evidence from two cross-sectional and one prospective study suggests that individuals with a history of a low back injury in a MVC are more likely to experience future LBP. There is a need to test this association prospectively in population-based cohorts with adequate control of known confounders. We formed a cohort of 789 randomly sampled Saskatchewan adults with no or mild LBP. At baseline, participants were asked if they had ever injured their low back in a MVC. Six and 12 months later, participants were asked about the presence of troublesome LBP (grade II-IV) on the Chronic Pain Grade Questionnaire. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to estimate the association while controlling for known confounders. The follow-up rate was 74.8% (590/789) at 6 months and 64.5% (509/789) at 12 months. There was a positive crude association between a history of low back injury in a MVC and the development of troublesome LBP over a 12-month period (HRR = 2.76; 95% CI 1.42-5.39). Controlling for arthritis reduced this association (HRR = 2.25; 95% CI 1.11-4.56). Adding confounders that may be on the casual pathway (baseline LBP, depression and HRQoL) to the multivariable model further reduced the association (HRR = 2.20; 95% CI 1.04-4.68). Our analysis suggests that a history of low back injury in a MVC is a risk factor for developing future troublesome LBP. The consequences of a low back injury in a MVC can predispose individuals to experience recurrent episodes of low back pain.

  9. Lifetime productivity losses associated with obesity status in early adulthood: a population-based study of Swedish men.

    PubMed

    Neovius, Kristian; Rehnberg, Clas; Rasmussen, Finn; Neovius, Martin

    2012-09-01

    Obesity is a well-known risk factor for sick leave, disability pension and premature death. Obesity is therefore presumably related to increased productivity losses. The aim of this study was to estimate the lifetime productivity losses to society associated with obesity status. This study was based on a 38-year follow-up of a nationwide cohort of 45 920 Swedish men performing mandatory military conscription tests at age 18.7 ± 0.5 years. Body mass index (BMI) based on measured height and weight at the time of military conscription tests was used to define underweight (<18.5 kg/m(2)), normal weight (18.5-24.9 kg/m(2)), overweight (25.0-29.9 kg/m(2)) and obesity (≥30.0 kg/m(2)). Data on sick leave, disability pension and premature death were retrieved from national registers. The calculations were adjusted for socioeconomic index, smoking and muscular strength. Using the human capital approach, the lifetime productivity losses were calculated as 55.6 (95% CI 50.7, 62.0) × €1000 and 55.6 (95% CI 50.9, 61.4) × €1000 for underweight and normal weight, respectively, and 72.6 (95% CI 66.3, 80.7) × €1000 and 95.4 (95% CI 89.0, 102.9) × €1000 for overweight and obesity, respectively. If using the friction cost method instead, the estimated productivity losses were reduced by about 80%. Obesity is associated with almost twice as high productivity losses to society as for normal weight over a lifetime. These costs are important to include in health economic analyses of obesity intervention programmes in order to ensure an effective allocation of resources from a societal perspective.

  10. Association of Overweight with the Prevalence of Lifetime Psychiatric Disorders and Suicidality: General Population-based Study in Korea.

    PubMed

    Kim, Byung Soo; Chang, Sung Man; Seong, Su Jeong; Park, Jee Eun; Park, Subin; Hong, Jin Pyo; Bae, Jae Nam; Cho, Seong Jin; Hahm, Bong Jin; Lee, Dong Woo; Park, Jong Ik; Lee, Jun Young; Jeon, Hong Jin; Cho, Maeng Je

    2016-11-01

    Many epidemiological studies suggest that overweight is associated with an elevated risk of psychiatric disorders and suicidal tendency. However, findings vary across studies, and some have contradictory results. We investigated the relationship of overweight with a range of psychiatric disorders and suicidality in the Korean general population. A multistage cluster sampling design was adopted. A total of 6,022 participants aged 18-74 years completed face-to-face interviews (response rate: 78.7%) including assessment of psychiatric disorders, suicidality, and height and weight. Overweight (defined as body mass index of ≥ 25) was associated with an increase in the lifetime prevalence of depressive disorders (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07-1.77), suicidal ideation (AOR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.20-1.68), and suicidal plans (AOR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.02-2.03), controlling for sociodemographic variables. Subgroup analysis found that the association between overweight and depressive disorders exists only in women aged 18-44 years (AOR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.07-2.89) while the association of overweight with suicidal ideation (AOR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.53-2.82) and suicide plans (AOR, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.25-5.37) existed only in men aged 18-44 years. Overweight was associated with increased odds of nicotine use disorders in women aged 18-44 years (AOR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.02-5.43), but the association was in the opposite direction in men aged 45-74 years (AOR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.43-0.94). In conclusion, overweight is related to various psychiatric disorders and suicidality in Korea. Policy makers and clinicians should pay more attention to the mental health of overweight individuals.

  11. Association of Overweight with the Prevalence of Lifetime Psychiatric Disorders and Suicidality: General Population-based Study in Korea

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Many epidemiological studies suggest that overweight is associated with an elevated risk of psychiatric disorders and suicidal tendency. However, findings vary across studies, and some have contradictory results. We investigated the relationship of overweight with a range of psychiatric disorders and suicidality in the Korean general population. A multistage cluster sampling design was adopted. A total of 6,022 participants aged 18–74 years completed face-to-face interviews (response rate: 78.7%) including assessment of psychiatric disorders, suicidality, and height and weight. Overweight (defined as body mass index of ≥ 25) was associated with an increase in the lifetime prevalence of depressive disorders (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 1.38; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07–1.77), suicidal ideation (AOR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.20–1.68), and suicidal plans (AOR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.02–2.03), controlling for sociodemographic variables. Subgroup analysis found that the association between overweight and depressive disorders exists only in women aged 18–44 years (AOR, 1.75; 95% CI, 1.07–2.89) while the association of overweight with suicidal ideation (AOR, 2.08; 95% CI, 1.53–2.82) and suicide plans (AOR, 2.59; 95% CI, 1.25–5.37) existed only in men aged 18–44 years. Overweight was associated with increased odds of nicotine use disorders in women aged 18–44 years (AOR, 2.35; 95% CI, 1.02–5.43), but the association was in the opposite direction in men aged 45–74 years (AOR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.43–0.94). In conclusion, overweight is related to various psychiatric disorders and suicidality in Korea. Policy makers and clinicians should pay more attention to the mental health of overweight individuals. PMID:27709862

  12. The association between a lifetime history of a neck injury in a motor vehicle collision and future neck pain: a population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Nolet, Paul S; Côté, Pierre; Cassidy, J David; Carroll, Linda J

    2010-06-01

    The objective of this population-based cohort study was to investigate the association between a lifetime history of neck injury from a motor vehicle collision and the development of troublesome neck pain. The current evidence suggests that individuals with a history of neck injury in a traffic collision are more likely to experience future neck pain. However, these results may suffer from residual confounding. Therefore, there is a need to test this association in a large population-based cohort with adequate control of known confounders. We formed a cohort of 919 randomly sampled Saskatchewan adults with no or mild neck pain in September 1995. At baseline, participants were asked if they ever injured their neck in a motor vehicle collision. Six and twelve months later, we asked about the presence of troublesome neck pain (grade II-IV) on the chronic pain grade questionnaire. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate the association between a lifetime history of neck injury in a motor vehicle collision and the onset of troublesome neck pain while controlling for known confounders. The follow-up rate was 73.5% (676/919) at 6 months and 63.1% (580/919) at 1 year. We found a positive association between a history of neck injury in a motor vehicle collision and the onset of troublesome neck pain after controlling for bodily pain and body mass index (adjusted HRR = 2.14; 95% CI 1.12-4.10). Our analysis suggests that a history of neck injury in a motor vehicle collision is a risk factor for developing future troublesome neck pain. The consequences of a neck injury in a motor vehicle collision can have long lasting effects and predispose individuals to experience recurrent episodes of neck pain.

  13. Universal Screening for Emotional and Behavioral Problems: Fitting a Population-Based Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schanding, G. Thomas, Jr.; Nowell, Kerri P.

    2013-01-01

    Schools have begun to adopt a population-based method to conceptualizing assessment and intervention of students; however, little empirical evidence has been gathered to support this shift in service delivery. The present study examined the fit of a population-based model in identifying students' behavioral and emotional functioning using a…

  14. Reduced memory and attention performance in a population-based sample of young adults with a moderate lifetime use of cannabis, ecstasy and alcohol.

    PubMed

    Indlekofer, F; Piechatzek, M; Daamen, M; Glasmacher, C; Lieb, R; Pfister, H; Tucha, O; Lange, K W; Wittchen, H U; Schütz, C G

    2009-07-01

    reaction time was found. The results are consistent with decrements of memory and attentional performance described in previous studies. These effects are relatively small; however, it must be kept in mind that this study focussed on assessing young adults with moderate drug use from a population-based study.

  15. Population based models of cortical drug response: insights from anaesthesia

    PubMed Central

    Bojak, Ingo; Liley, David T. J.

    2008-01-01

    A great explanatory gap lies between the molecular pharmacology of psychoactive agents and the neurophysiological changes they induce, as recorded by neuroimaging modalities. Causally relating the cellular actions of psychoactive compounds to their influence on population activity is experimentally challenging. Recent developments in the dynamical modelling of neural tissue have attempted to span this explanatory gap between microscopic targets and their macroscopic neurophysiological effects via a range of biologically plausible dynamical models of cortical tissue. Such theoretical models allow exploration of neural dynamics, in particular their modification by drug action. The ability to theoretically bridge scales is due to a biologically plausible averaging of cortical tissue properties. In the resulting macroscopic neural field, individual neurons need not be explicitly represented (as in neural networks). The following paper aims to provide a non-technical introduction to the mean field population modelling of drug action and its recent successes in modelling anaesthesia. PMID:19003456

  16. POPULATION-BASED EXPOSURE MODELING FOR AIR POLLUTANTS AT EPA'S NATIONAL EXPOSURE RESEARCH LABORATORY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The US EPA's National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL) has been developing, applying, and evaluating population-based exposure models to improve our understanding of the variability in personal exposure to air pollutants. Estimates of population variability are needed for E...

  17. Heuristic Modeling for TRMM Lifetime Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jordan, P. S.; Sharer, P. J.; DeFazio, R. L.

    1996-01-01

    Analysis time for computing the expected mission lifetimes of proposed frequently maneuvering, tightly altitude constrained, Earth orbiting spacecraft have been significantly reduced by means of a heuristic modeling method implemented in a commercial-off-the-shelf spreadsheet product (QuattroPro) running on a personal computer (PC). The method uses a look-up table to estimate the maneuver frequency per month as a function of the spacecraft ballistic coefficient and the solar flux index, then computes the associated fuel use by a simple engine model. Maneuver frequency data points are produced by means of a single 1-month run of traditional mission analysis software for each of the 12 to 25 data points required for the table. As the data point computations are required only a mission design start-up and on the occasion of significant mission redesigns, the dependence on time consuming traditional modeling methods is dramatically reduced. Results to date have agreed with traditional methods to within 1 to 1.5 percent. The spreadsheet approach is applicable to a wide variety of Earth orbiting spacecraft with tight altitude constraints. It will be particularly useful to such missions as the Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission scheduled for launch in 1997, whose mission lifetime calculations are heavily dependent on frequently revised solar flux predictions.

  18. Estimating and modeling the cure fraction in population-based cancer survival analysis.

    PubMed

    Lambert, Paul C; Thompson, John R; Weston, Claire L; Dickman, Paul W

    2007-07-01

    In population-based cancer studies, cure is said to occur when the mortality (hazard) rate in the diseased group of individuals returns to the same level as that expected in the general population. The cure fraction (the proportion of patients cured of disease) is of interest to patients and is a useful measure to monitor trends in survival of curable disease. There are 2 main types of cure fraction model, the mixture cure fraction model and the non-mixture cure fraction model, with most previous work concentrating on the mixture cure fraction model. In this paper, we extend the parametric non-mixture cure fraction model to incorporate background mortality, thus providing estimates of the cure fraction in population-based cancer studies. We compare the estimates of relative survival and the cure fraction between the 2 types of model and also investigate the importance of modeling the ancillary parameters in the selected parametric distribution for both types of model.

  19. Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based human exposure modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER meas...

  20. Probabilistic estimation of residential air exchange rates for population-based human exposure modeling

    EPA Science Inventory

    Residential air exchange rates (AERs) are a key determinant in the infiltration of ambient air pollution indoors. Population-based human exposure models using probabilistic approaches to estimate personal exposure to air pollutants have relied on input distributions from AER meas...

  1. Validation of population-based disease simulation models: a review of concepts and methods

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Computer simulation models are used increasingly to support public health research and policy, but questions about their quality persist. The purpose of this article is to review the principles and methods for validation of population-based disease simulation models. Methods We developed a comprehensive framework for validating population-based chronic disease simulation models and used this framework in a review of published model validation guidelines. Based on the review, we formulated a set of recommendations for gathering evidence of model credibility. Results Evidence of model credibility derives from examining: 1) the process of model development, 2) the performance of a model, and 3) the quality of decisions based on the model. Many important issues in model validation are insufficiently addressed by current guidelines. These issues include a detailed evaluation of different data sources, graphical representation of models, computer programming, model calibration, between-model comparisons, sensitivity analysis, and predictive validity. The role of external data in model validation depends on the purpose of the model (e.g., decision analysis versus prediction). More research is needed on the methods of comparing the quality of decisions based on different models. Conclusion As the role of simulation modeling in population health is increasing and models are becoming more complex, there is a need for further improvements in model validation methodology and common standards for evaluating model credibility. PMID:21087466

  2. Socioeconomic status during lifetime and cognitive impairment no-dementia in late life: the population-based aging in the Chianti Area (InCHIANTI) Study.

    PubMed

    Marengoni, Alessandra; Fratiglioni, Laura; Bandinelli, Stefania; Ferrucci, Luigi

    2011-01-01

    Thousand and twelve dementia-free elderly (60–98 years old) enrolled in the InChianti Study (Italy) were evaluated at baseline (1998–2000) and at 3-year follow-up (2001–2003) with the aim of analyzing the association of lifetime socioeconomic status (SES) with prevalent and incident cognitive impairment no-dementia (CIND). SES was defined from information on formal education, longest held occupation, and financial conditions through life. CIND was defined as age-adjusted Mini-Mental State Examination score one standard deviation below the baseline mean score of participants without dementia. Logistic regression and Cox proportional-hazards models were used to estimate the association of SES with CIND. Demographics,occupation characteristics (i.e., job stress and physical demand), cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, apolipoprotein E (APOE)genotype, smoking, alcohol consumption, depressive symptoms, and C-reactive protein were considered potential confounders.Prevalence of CIND was 17.7%. In the fully adjusted model, low education (OR = 2.1; 95% confidence intervals, CI = 1.4 to 3.2)was associated with prevalent CIND. Incidence rate of CIND was 66.0 per 1000 person-years. Low education (HR = 1.7; 95% CI = 1.04 to 2.6) and manual occupation (HR = 1.9; 95% CI = 1.0 to 3.6) were associated with incident CIND. Among covariates,high job-related physical demand was associated with both prevalent and incident CIND (OR = 1.6; 95% CI = 1.1 to 2.4 and HR= 1.5; 95% CI = 1.0 to 2.3). After stratification for education, manual occupation was still associated with CIND among participants with high education (HR = 2.2; 95% CI = 1.2 to 4.3 versus HR= 1.4; 95% CI = 0.2 to 10.4 among those with low education). Proxy markers of lifetime SES (low education, manual occupation and high physical demand) are cross-sectional correlates of CIND and predict incident CIND over a three-year follow-up.

  3. Hybrid Stochastic Models for Remaining Lifetime Prognosis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-08-01

    sufficient conditions for an optimal replacement decision rule with respect to total cost and some bounds associated with this rule. The probability...degradation paths. Using Figure 3.15 and Table 3.8, we feel confident that we can adequately estimate the parameters of the lifetime distribution and...distribution, defined as the variance divided by the mean squared. The range for c2 is broken into three intevals , 0 < c2 ≤ 0.5, 0.5 < c2 ≤ 1.0, and

  4. Lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy in Europe: a population-based study using data from the ERA-EDTA Registry.

    PubMed

    van den Brand, Jan A J G; Pippias, Maria; Stel, Vianda S; Caskey, Fergus J; Collart, Frederic; Finne, Partik; Heaf, James; Jais, Jean-Philippe; Kramar, Reinhard; Massy, Ziad A; De Meester, Johan; Traynor, Jamie P; Reisæter, Anna Varberg; Wetzels, Jack F M; Jager, Kitty J

    2017-02-01

    Upcoming KDIGO guidelines for the evaluation of living kidney donors are expected to move towards a personal risk-based evaluation of potential donors. We present the age and sex-specific lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease in 10 European countries. We defined lifetime risk of RRT as the cumulative incidence of RRT up to age 90 years. We obtained RRT incidence rates per million population by 5-year age groups and sex using data from the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry, and used these to estimate the cumulative incidence of RRT, adjusting for competing mortality risk. Lifetime risk of RRT varied from 0.44% to 2.05% at age 20 years and from 0.17% to 1.59% at age 70 years across countries, and was twice as high in men as in women. Lifetime RRT risk decreased with age, ranging from an average of 0.77% to 0.44% in 20- to- 70-year-old women, and from 1.45% to 0.96% in 20- to- 70-year-old men. The lifetime risk of RRT increased slightly over the past decade, more so in men than in women. However, it appears to have stabilized or even decreased slightly in more recent years. The lifetime risk of RRT decreased with age, was lower in women as compared with men of equal age and varied considerably throughout Europe. Given the substantial differences in lifetime risk of RRT between the USA and Europe, country-specific estimates should be used in the evaluation and communication of the risk of RRT for potential living kidney donors.

  5. Models of population-based analyses for data collected from large extended families.

    PubMed

    Wang, Wenyu; Lee, Elisa T; Howard, Barbara V; Fabsitz, Richard R; Devereux, Richard B; MacCluer, Jean W; Laston, Sandra; Comuzzie, Anthony G; Shara, Nawar M; Welty, Thomas K

    2010-12-01

    Large studies of extended families usually collect valuable phenotypic data that may have scientific value for purposes other than testing genetic hypotheses if the families were not selected in a biased manner. These purposes include assessing population-based associations of diseases with risk factors/covariates and estimating population characteristics such as disease prevalence and incidence. Relatedness among participants however, violates the traditional assumption of independent observations in these classic analyses. The commonly used adjustment method for relatedness in population-based analyses is to use marginal models, in which clusters (families) are assumed to be independent (unrelated) with a simple and identical covariance (family) structure such as those called independent, exchangeable and unstructured covariance structures. However, using these simple covariance structures may not be optimally appropriate for outcomes collected from large extended families, and may under- or over-estimate the variances of estimators and thus lead to uncertainty in inferences. Moreover, the assumption that families are unrelated with an identical family structure in a marginal model may not be satisfied for family studies with large extended families. The aim of this paper is to propose models incorporating marginal models approaches with a covariance structure for assessing population-based associations of diseases with their risk factors/covariates and estimating population characteristics for epidemiological studies while adjusting for the complicated relatedness among outcomes (continuous/categorical, normally/non-normally distributed) collected from large extended families. We also discuss theoretical issues of the proposed models and show that the proposed models and covariance structure are appropriate for and capable of achieving the aim.

  6. Empirical membrane lifetime model for heavy duty fuel cell systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Macauley, Natalia; Watson, Mark; Lauritzen, Michael; Knights, Shanna; Wang, G. Gary; Kjeang, Erik

    2016-12-01

    Heavy duty fuel cells used in transportation system applications such as transit buses expose the fuel cell membranes to conditions that can lead to lifetime-limiting membrane failure via combined chemical and mechanical degradation. Highly durable membranes and reliable predictive models are therefore needed in order to achieve the ultimate heavy duty fuel cell lifetime target of 25,000 h. In the present work, an empirical membrane lifetime model was developed based on laboratory data from a suite of accelerated membrane durability tests. The model considers the effects of cell voltage, temperature, oxygen concentration, humidity cycling, humidity level, and platinum in the membrane using inverse power law and exponential relationships within the framework of a general log-linear Weibull life-stress statistical distribution. The obtained model is capable of extrapolating the membrane lifetime from accelerated test conditions to use level conditions during field operation. Based on typical conditions for the Whistler, British Columbia fuel cell transit bus fleet, the model predicts a stack lifetime of 17,500 h and a membrane leak initiation time of 9200 h. Validation performed with the aid of a field operated stack confirmed the initial goal of the model to predict membrane lifetime within 20% of the actual operating time.

  7. Lifetime occupational exposure to metals and welding fumes, and risk of glioma: a 7-country population-based case-control study.

    PubMed

    Parent, Marie-Elise; Turner, Michelle C; Lavoué, Jérôme; Richard, Hugues; Figuerola, Jordi; Kincl, Laurel; Richardson, Lesley; Benke, Geza; Blettner, Maria; Fleming, Sarah; Hours, Martine; Krewski, Daniel; McLean, David; Sadetzki, Siegal; Schlaefer, Klaus; Schlehofer, Brigitte; Schüz, Joachim; Siemiatycki, Jack; van Tongeren, Martie; Cardis, Elisabeth

    2017-08-25

    Brain tumor etiology is poorly understood. Based on their ability to pass through the blood-brain barrier, it has been hypothesized that exposure to metals may increase the risk of brain cancer. Results from the few epidemiological studies on this issue are limited and inconsistent. We investigated the relationship between glioma risk and occupational exposure to five metals - lead, cadmium, nickel, chromium and iron- as well as to welding fumes, using data from the seven-country INTEROCC study. A total of 1800 incident glioma cases and 5160 controls aged 30-69 years were included in the analysis. Lifetime occupational exposure to the agents was assessed using the INTEROCC JEM, a modified version of the Finnish job exposure matrix FINJEM. In general, cases had a slightly higher prevalence of exposure to the various metals and welding fumes than did controls, with the prevalence among ever exposed ranging between 1.7 and 2.2% for cadmium to 10.2 and 13.6% for iron among controls and cases, respectively. However, in multivariable logistic regression analyses, there was no association between ever exposure to any of the agents and risk of glioma with odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) ranging from 0.8 (0.7-1.0) for lead to 1.1 (0.7-1.6) for cadmium. Results were consistent across models considering cumulative exposure or duration, as well as in all sensitivity analyses conducted. Findings from this large-scale international study provide no evidence for an association between occupational exposure to any of the metals under scrutiny or welding fumes, and risk of glioma.

  8. Genetic epidemiology of self-reported lifetime DSM-IV major depressive disorder in a population-based twin sample of female adolescents

    PubMed Central

    Glowinski, Anne L.; Madden, Pamela A.F.; Bucholz, Kathleen K.; Lynskey, Michael T.; Heath, Andrew C.

    2005-01-01

    Background: In adults, about 40% of the variance in risk of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) is due to genetic factors, but little data exist on the heritability of youth MDD. The goal of this study was the genetic analysis of MDD in an epidemiologically and genetically representative sample of adolescent female twins. Methods: A sample of 3416 female adolescent twins systematically ascertained from birth records was assessed using a structured telephone interview that included a comprehensive DSM-IV-based section for the diagnostic assessment of MDD. Mean subject age at time of assessment was 15.5 and participation rate exceeded 85%. Genetic modeling was conducted taking into consideration the problem of censoring, i.e., that younger adolescents were not through their period of risk for adolescent onset of MDD. Results: Lifetime self-reported MDD prevalence ranged from 1% under age 12 to 17.4% at age 19 and older. The genetic variance in risk of MDD was 40.4% (95% confidence interval (CI): 23.9–55.1), with the remaining variance explained by non-shared environmental effects 59.6% (95%CI: 44.9–76.1). Shared environmental effects were not significant. A significant recall bias was observed with older respondents on average reporting later onsets for their first episode of MDD. Conclusions: The genetic and environmental contributions to risk of MDD in this representative sample of female adolescent twins are remarkably analogous to findings from adult samples. These results are congruent with a conceptualization of adolescent MDD and adult MDD as having very similar etiologic determinants. PMID:14531581

  9. Predictive Models of Li-ion Battery Lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Kandler; Wood, Eric; Santhanagopalan, Shriram; Kim, Gi-heon; Shi, Ying; Pesaran, Ahmad

    2015-06-15

    It remains an open question how best to predict real-world battery lifetime based on accelerated calendar and cycle aging data from the laboratory. Multiple degradation mechanisms due to (electro)chemical, thermal, and mechanical coupled phenomena influence Li-ion battery lifetime, each with different dependence on time, cycling and thermal environment. The standardization of life predictive models would benefit the industry by reducing test time and streamlining development of system controls.

  10. Development of a population-based microsimulation model of osteoarthritis in Canada.

    PubMed

    Kopec, J A; Sayre, E C; Flanagan, W M; Fines, P; Cibere, J; Rahman, Md M; Bansback, N J; Anis, A H; Jordan, J M; Sobolev, B; Aghajanian, J; Kang, W; Greidanus, N V; Garbuz, D S; Hawker, G A; Badley, E M

    2010-03-01

    The purpose of the study was to develop a population-based simulation model of osteoarthritis (OA) in Canada that can be used to quantify the future health and economic burden of OA under a range of scenarios for changes in the OA risk factors and treatments. In this article we describe the overall structure of the model, sources of data, derivation of key input parameters for the epidemiological component of the model, and preliminary validation studies. We used the Population Health Model (POHEM) platform to develop a stochastic continuous-time microsimulation model of physician-diagnosed OA. Incidence rates were calibrated to agree with administrative data for the province of British Columbia, Canada. The effect of obesity on OA incidence and the impact of OA on health-related quality of life (HRQL) were modeled using Canadian national surveys. Incidence rates of OA in the model increase approximately linearly with age in both sexes between the ages of 50 and 80 and plateau in the very old. In those aged 50+, the rates are substantially higher in women. At baseline, the prevalence of OA is 11.5%, 13.6% in women and 9.3% in men. The OA hazard ratios for obesity are 2.0 in women and 1.7 in men. The effect of OA diagnosis on HRQL, as measured by the Health Utilities Index Mark 3 (HUI3), is to reduce it by 0.10 in women and 0.14 in men. We describe the development of the first population-based microsimulation model of OA. Strengths of this model include the use of large population databases to derive the key parameters and the application of modern microsimulation technology. Limitations of the model reflect the limitations of administrative and survey data and gaps in the epidemiological and HRQL literature. Copyright 2009 Osteoarthritis Research Society International. All rights reserved.

  11. Population-based modeling of the progression of apoptosis in mammalian cell culture.

    PubMed

    Meshram, Mukesh; Naderi, Saeideh; McConkey, Brendan; Budman, Hector; Scharer, Jeno; Ingalls, Brian

    2012-05-01

    The production of biopharmaceuticals from mammalian cell culture is hindered by apoptosis, which is the primary cause of cell death in these cultures. As a tool for optimization of culture yield, this study presents a population-based model describing the progression of apoptosis in a monoclonal antibody (mAb)-producing Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell culture. Because mAb production does not cease when apoptosis begins, the model was designed to incorporate subpopulations at various stages in the progression of apoptosis. The model was validated against intracellular measurements of caspase activity as well as cell density, nutrient levels, and toxic metabolites. Since the specific details of apoptotic mechanisms have not been elucidated in this cell line, we employed a model comparison analysis that suggests the most plausible pathways of activation. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Lifetime and 12-month prevalence of eating disorders amongst women in mid-life: a population-based study of diagnoses and risk factors.

    PubMed

    Micali, Nadia; Martini, Maria G; Thomas, Jennifer J; Eddy, Kamryn T; Kothari, Radha; Russell, Ellie; Bulik, Cynthia M; Treasure, Janet

    2017-01-17

    Eating disorders (EDs) are common amongst women; however, no research has specifically investigated the lifetime/12-month prevalence of eating disorders amongst women in mid-life (i.e., fourth and fifth decade of life) and the relevant longitudinal risk factors. We aimed to investigate the lifetime and 12-month prevalence of EDs and lifetime health service use and to identify childhood, parenting, and personality risk factors. This is a two-phase prevalence study, nested within an existing longitudinal community-based sample of women in mid-life. A total of 5658 women from the UK Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC; enrolled 20 years earlier) participated. ED diagnoses were obtained using validated structured interviews. Weighted analyses were carried out accounting for the two-phase methodology to obtain prevalence figures and to carry out risk factor regression analyses. By mid-life, 15.3% (95% confidence intervals, 13.5-17.4%) of women had met criteria for a lifetime ED. The 12-month prevalence of EDs was 3.6%. Childhood sexual abuse was prospectively associated with all binge/purge type disorders and an external locus of control was associated with binge-eating disorder. Better maternal care was protective for bulimia nervosa. Childhood life events and interpersonal sensitivity were associated with all EDs. By mid-life a significant proportion of women will experience an ED, and few women accessed healthcare. Active EDs are common in mid-life, both due to new onset and chronic disorders. Increased awareness of the full spectrum of EDs in this stage of life and adequate service provision is important. This is the first study to investigate childhood and personality risk factors for full threshold and sub-threshold EDs and to identify common predictors for full and sub-threshold EDs. Further research should clarify the role of preventable risk factors on both full and sub-threshold EDs.

  13. Incidence rates and life-time risk of hip fractures in Mexicans over 50 years of age: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Clark, Patricia; Lavielle, Pilar; Franco-Marina, Francisco; Ramírez, Esperanza; Salmerón, Jorge; Kanis, John A; Cummings, Steven R

    2005-12-01

    The vast majority of hip fractures in the 21st century will occur in the developing countries. The rates and life-time hip fracture risk are not known for Mexico, and for this reason, we studied the incidence of hip fractures, and the remaining life-time probability of having a hip fracture at the age of 50 years in Mexican men and women. All hip fracture cases registered during the year 2000 were collected at all the main tertiary-care hospitals in the two major health systems in México City, Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) and Ministry of Health (SS), and the diagnosis was validated by chart review in all cases. The annual rates of hip fracture were 169 in women and 98 in men per 100,000 person-years. The life-time probability of having a hip fracture at 50 years of age was 8.5% in Mexican women and 3.8% in Mexican men. We conclude that hip fractures are an important health problem in Mexico and that Mexican health authorities should consider public health programs to prevent hip fractures.

  14. Education and Successful Aging Trajectories: A Longitudinal Population-Based Latent Variable Modelling Analysis.

    PubMed

    Cosco, Theodore D; Stephan, Blossom C M; Brayne, Carol; Muniz, Graciela

    2017-10-11

    As the population ages, interest is increasing in studying aging well. However, more refined means of examining predictors of biopsychosocial conceptualizations of successful aging (SA) are required. Existing evidence of the relationship between early-life education and later-life SA is unclear. The Successful Aging Index (SAI) was mapped onto the Cognitive Function and Aging Study (CFAS), a longitudinal population-based cohort (n = 1,141). SAI scores were examined using growth mixture modelling (GMM) to identify SA trajectories. Unadjusted and adjusted (age, sex, occupational status) ordinal logistic regressions were conducted to examine the association between trajectory membership and education level. GMM identified a three-class model, capturing high, moderate, and low functioning trajectories. Adjusted ordinal logistic regression models indicated that individuals in higher SAI classes were significantly more likely to have higher educational attainment than individuals in the lower SAI classes. These results provide evidence of a life course link between education and SA.

  15. Scalable Entity-Based Modeling of Population-Based Systems, Final LDRD Report

    SciTech Connect

    Cleary, A J; Smith, S G; Vassilevska, T K; Jefferson, D R

    2005-01-27

    The goal of this project has been to develop tools, capabilities and expertise in the modeling of complex population-based systems via scalable entity-based modeling (EBM). Our initial focal application domain has been the dynamics of large populations exposed to disease-causing agents, a topic of interest to the Department of Homeland Security in the context of bioterrorism. In the academic community, discrete simulation technology based on individual entities has shown initial success, but the technology has not been scaled to the problem sizes or computational resources of LLNL. Our developmental emphasis has been on the extension of this technology to parallel computers and maturation of the technology from an academic to a lab setting.

  16. Comprehensive, Population-Based Sensitivity Analysis of a Two-Mass Vocal Fold Model

    PubMed Central

    Robertson, Daniel; Zañartu, Matías; Cook, Douglas

    2016-01-01

    Previous vocal fold modeling studies have generally focused on generating detailed data regarding a narrow subset of possible model configurations. These studies can be interpreted to be the investigation of a single subject under one or more vocal conditions. In this study, a broad population-based sensitivity analysis is employed to examine the behavior of a virtual population of subjects and to identify trends between virtual individuals as opposed to investigating a single subject or model instance. Four different sensitivity analysis techniques were used in accomplishing this task. Influential relationships between model input parameters and model outputs were identified, and an exploration of the model’s parameter space was conducted. Results indicate that the behavior of the selected two-mass model is largely dominated by complex interactions, and that few input-output pairs have a consistent effect on the model. Results from the analysis can be used to increase the efficiency of optimization routines of reduced-order models used to investigate voice abnormalities. Results also demonstrate the types of challenges and difficulties to be expected when applying sensitivity analyses to more complex vocal fold models. Such challenges are discussed and recommendations are made for future studies. PMID:26845452

  17. Progress towards a PETN Lifetime Prediction Model

    SciTech Connect

    Burnham, A K; Overturf III, G E; Gee, R; Lewis, P; Qiu, R; Phillips, D; Weeks, B; Pitchimani, R; Maiti, A; Zepeda-Ruiz, L; Hrousis, C

    2006-09-11

    Dinegar (1) showed that decreases in PETN surface area causes EBW detonator function times to increase. Thermal aging causes PETN to agglomerate, shrink, and densify indicating a ''sintering'' process. It has long been a concern that the formation of a gap between the PETN and the bridgewire may lead to EBW detonator failure. These concerns have led us to develop a model to predict the rate of coarsening that occurs with age for thermally driven PETN powder (50% TMD). To understand PETN contributions to detonator aging we need three things: (1) Curves describing function time dependence on specific surface area, density, and gap. (2) A measurement of the critical gap distance for no fire as a function of density and surface area for various wire configurations. (3) A model describing how specific surface area, density and gap change with time and temperature. We've had good success modeling high temperature surface area reduction and function time increase using a phenomenological deceleratory kinetic model based on a distribution of parallel nth-order reactions having evenly spaced activation energies where weighing factors of the reactions follows a Gaussian distribution about the reaction with the mean activation energy (Figure 1). Unfortunately, the mean activation energy derived from this approach is high (typically {approx}75 kcal/mol) so that negligible sintering is predicted for temperatures below 40 C. To make more reliable predictions, we've established a three-part effort to understand PETN mobility. First, we've measured the rates of step movement and pit nucleation as a function of temperature from 30 to 50 C for single crystals. Second, we've measured the evaporation rate from single crystals and powders from 105 to 135 C to obtain an activation energy for evaporation. Third, we've pursued mechanistic kinetic modeling of surface mobility, evaporation, and ripening.

  18. A Population-based Model of Local Control and Survival Benefit of Radiotherapy for Lung Cancer.

    PubMed

    Shafiq, J; Hanna, T P; Vinod, S K; Delaney, G P; Barton, M B

    2016-10-01

    To estimate the population-based locoregional control and overall survival benefits of radiotherapy for lung cancer if the whole population were treated according to evidence-based guidelines. These estimates were based on a published radiotherapy utilisation (RTU) model that has been used to estimate the demand and planning of radiotherapy services nationally and internationally. The lung cancer RTU model was extended to incorporate an estimate of benefits of radiotherapy alone, and of radiotherapy in conjunction with concurrent chemotherapy (CRT). Benefits were defined as the proportional gains in locoregional control and overall survival from radiotherapy over no radiotherapy for radical indications, and from postoperative radiotherapy over surgery alone for adjuvant indications. A literature review (1990-2015) was conducted to identify benefit estimates of individual radiotherapy indications and summed to estimate the population-based gains for these outcomes. Model robustness was tested through univariate and multivariate sensitivity analyses. If evidence-based radiotherapy recommendations are followed for the whole lung cancer population, the model estimated that radiotherapy alone would result in a gain of 8.3% (95% confidence interval 7.4-9.2%) in 5 year locoregional control, 11.4% (10.8-12.0%) in 2 year overall survival and 4.0% (3.6-4.4%) in 5 year overall survival. For the use of CRT over radiotherapy alone, estimated benefits would be: locoregional control 1.7% (0.8-2.4%), 2 year overall survival 1.7% (0.5-2.8%) and 5 year overall survival 1.2% (0.7-1.9%). The model provided estimates of radiotherapy benefit that could be achieved if treatment guidelines are followed for all cancer patients. These can be used as a benchmark so that the effects of a shortfall in the utilisation of radiotherapy can be better understood and addressed. The model can be adapted to other populations with known epidemiological parameters to ensure the planning of equitable

  19. Model selection and inference for censored lifetime medical expenditures.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Brent A; Long, Qi; Huang, Yijian; Chansky, Kari; Redman, Mary

    2016-09-01

    Identifying factors associated with increased medical cost is important for many micro- and macro-institutions, including the national economy and public health, insurers and the insured. However, assembling comprehensive national databases that include both the cost and individual-level predictors can prove challenging. Alternatively, one can use data from smaller studies with the understanding that conclusions drawn from such analyses may be limited to the participant population. At the same time, smaller clinical studies have limited follow-up and lifetime medical cost may not be fully observed for all study participants. In this context, we develop new model selection methods and inference procedures for secondary analyses of clinical trial data when lifetime medical cost is subject to induced censoring. Our model selection methods extend a theory of penalized estimating function to a calibration regression estimator tailored for this data type. Next, we develop a novel inference procedure for the unpenalized regression estimator using perturbation and resampling theory. Then, we extend this resampling plan to accommodate regularized coefficient estimation of censored lifetime medical cost and develop postselection inference procedures for the final model. Our methods are motivated by data from Southwest Oncology Group Protocol 9509, a clinical trial of patients with advanced nonsmall cell lung cancer, and our models of lifetime medical cost are specific to this population. But the methods presented in this article are built on rather general techniques and could be applied to larger databases as those data become available.

  20. Consistent two-lifetime model for spectral functions of superconductors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herman, František; Hlubina, Richard

    2017-03-01

    Recently it has been found that models with at least two lifetimes have to be considered when analyzing the angle-resolved photoemission data in the nodal region of the cuprates [Kondo et al., Nat. Commun. 6, 7699 (2015), 10.1038/ncomms8699]. In this paper we compare two such models. First we show that the phenomenological model used by Kondo et al. violates the sum rule for the occupation number. Next we consider the recently proposed model of the so-called Dynes superconductors, wherein the two lifetimes measure the strengths of pair-conserving and pair-breaking processes. We demonstrate that the model of the Dynes superconductors is fully consistent with known exact results, and we study in detail the resulting spectral functions. Finally, we show that the spectral functions in the nodal region of the cuprates can be fitted well by the model of the Dynes superconductors.

  1. A population based statistical model for daily geometric variations in the thorax.

    PubMed

    Szeto, Yenny Z; Witte, Marnix G; van Herk, Marcel; Sonke, Jan-Jakob

    2017-04-01

    To develop a population based statistical model of the systematic interfraction geometric variations between the planning CT and first treatment week of lung cancer patients for inclusion as uncertainty term in future probabilistic planning. Deformable image registrations between the planning CT and first week CBCTs of 235 lung cancer patients were used to generate deformation vector fields (DVFs) representing the geometric variations of lung cancer patients. Using a second deformable registration step, the average DVF per patient was mapped to an average patient CT. Subsequently, the dominant modes of systematic geometric variations were extracted using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). For evaluation a leave-one-out cross-validation was performed. The first three PCA components mainly described cranial-caudal, anterior-posterior, and left-right variations, respectively. Fifty and 112 components were needed to describe correspondingly 75% and 90% of the variance. An overall systematic variation of 3.6mm SD was observed and could be described with an accuracy of about 1.0mm with the PCA model. A PCA based model for systematic geometric variations in the thorax was developed, and its accuracy determined. Such a model can serve as a basis for probability based treatment planning in lung cancer patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Remaining lifetime modeling using State-of-Health estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beganovic, Nejra; Söffker, Dirk

    2017-08-01

    Technical systems and system's components undergo gradual degradation over time. Continuous degradation occurred in system is reflected in decreased system's reliability and unavoidably lead to a system failure. Therefore, continuous evaluation of State-of-Health (SoH) is inevitable to provide at least predefined lifetime of the system defined by manufacturer, or even better, to extend the lifetime given by manufacturer. However, precondition for lifetime extension is accurate estimation of SoH as well as the estimation and prediction of Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL). For this purpose, lifetime models describing the relation between system/component degradation and consumed lifetime have to be established. In this contribution modeling and selection of suitable lifetime models from database based on current SoH conditions are discussed. Main contribution of this paper is the development of new modeling strategies capable to describe complex relations between measurable system variables, related system degradation, and RUL. Two approaches with accompanying advantages and disadvantages are introduced and compared. Both approaches are capable to model stochastic aging processes of a system by simultaneous adaption of RUL models to current SoH. The first approach requires a priori knowledge about aging processes in the system and accurate estimation of SoH. An estimation of SoH here is conditioned by tracking actual accumulated damage into the system, so that particular model parameters are defined according to a priori known assumptions about system's aging. Prediction accuracy in this case is highly dependent on accurate estimation of SoH but includes high number of degrees of freedom. The second approach in this contribution does not require a priori knowledge about system's aging as particular model parameters are defined in accordance to multi-objective optimization procedure. Prediction accuracy of this model does not highly depend on estimated SoH. This model

  3. mb-FLIM: model-based fluorescence lifetime imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Qiaole; Young, Ian Ted; Schouten, Raymond; Stallinga, Sjoerd; Jalink, Kees; de Jong, Sander

    2012-03-01

    We have developed a model-based, parallel procedure to estimate fluorescence lifetimes. Multiple frequencies are present in the excitation signal. Modeling the entire fluorescence and measurement process produces an analytical ratio of polynomials in the lifetime variable τ. A non-linear model-fitting procedure is then used to estimate τ. We have analyzed this model-based approach by simulating a 10 μM fluorescein solution (τ = 4 ns) and all relevant noise sources. We have used real LED data to drive the simulation. Using 240 μs of data, we estimate τ = 3.99 ns. Preliminary experiments on real fluorescent images taken from fluorescein solutions (measured τ = 4.1 ns), green plastic test slides (measured τ = 3.0 ns), and GFP in U2OS (osteosarcoma) cells (measured τ = 2.1 ns) demonstrate that this model-based measurement technique works.

  4. Physically based DC lifetime model for lead zirconate titanate films

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garten, Lauren M.; Hagiwara, Manabu; Ko, Song Won; Trolier-McKinstry, Susan

    2017-09-01

    Accurate lifetime predictions for Pb(Zr0.52Ti0.48)O3 thin films are critical for a number of applications, but current reliability models are not consistent with the resistance degradation mechanisms in lead zirconate titanate. In this work, the reliability and lifetime of chemical solution deposited (CSD) and sputtered Pb(Zr0.52Ti0.48)O3 thin films are characterized using highly accelerated lifetime testing (HALT) and leakage current-voltage (I-V) measurements. Temperature dependent HALT results and impedance spectroscopy show activation energies of approximately 1.2 eV for the CSD films and 0.6 eV for the sputtered films. The voltage dependent HALT results are consistent with previous reports, but do not clearly indicate what causes device failure. To understand more about the underlying physical mechanisms leading to degradation, the I-V data are fit to known conduction mechanisms, with Schottky emission having the best-fit and realistic extracted material parameters. Using the Schottky emission equation as a base, a unique model is developed to predict the lifetime under highly accelerated testing conditions based on the physical mechanisms of degradation.

  5. Predictive Models of Li-ion Battery Lifetime (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G.; Shi, Y.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-09-01

    Predictive models of Li-ion battery reliability must consider a multiplicity of electrochemical, thermal and mechanical degradation modes experienced by batteries in application environments. Complicating matters, Li-ion batteries can experience several path dependent degradation trajectories dependent on storage and cycling history of the application environment. Rates of degradation are controlled by factors such as temperature history, electrochemical operating window, and charge/discharge rate. Lacking accurate models and tests, lifetime uncertainty must be absorbed by overdesign and warranty costs. Degradation models are needed that predict lifetime more accurately and with less test data. Models should also provide engineering feedback for next generation battery designs. This presentation reviews both multi-dimensional physical models and simpler, lumped surrogate models of battery electrochemical and mechanical degradation. Models are compared with cell- and pack-level aging data from commercial Li-ion chemistries. The analysis elucidates the relative importance of electrochemical and mechanical stress-induced degradation mechanisms in real-world operating environments. Opportunities for extending the lifetime of commercial battery systems are explored.

  6. Toxicogenetics: population-based testing of drug and chemical safety in mouse models.

    PubMed

    Rusyn, Ivan; Gatti, Daniel M; Wiltshire, Timothy; Wilshire, Timothy; Kleeberger, Steven R; Threadgill, David W

    2010-08-01

    The rapid decline in the cost of dense genotyping is paving the way for new DNA sequence-based laboratory tests to move quickly into clinical practice, and to ultimately help realize the promise of 'personalized' therapies. These advances are based on the growing appreciation of genetics as an important dimension in science and the practice of investigative pharmacology and toxicology. On the clinical side, both the regulators and the pharmaceutical industry hope that the early identification of individuals prone to adverse drug effects will keep advantageous medicines on the market for the benefit of the vast majority of prospective patients. On the environmental health protection side, there is a clear need for better science to define the range and causes of susceptibility to adverse effects of chemicals in the population, so that the appropriate regulatory limits are established. In both cases, most of the research effort is focused on genome-wide association studies in humans where de novo genotyping of each subject is required. At the same time, the power of population-based preclinical safety testing in rodent models (e.g., mouse) remains to be fully exploited. Here, we highlight the approaches available to utilize the knowledge of DNA sequence and genetic diversity of the mouse as a species in mechanistic toxicology research. We posit that appropriate genetically defined mouse models may be combined with the limited data from human studies to not only discover the genetic determinants of susceptibility, but to also understand the molecular underpinnings of toxicity.

  7. Population based model of human embryonic stem cell (hESC) differentiation during endoderm induction.

    PubMed

    Task, Keith; Jaramillo, Maria; Banerjee, Ipsita

    2012-01-01

    The mechanisms by which human embryonic stem cells (hESC) differentiate to endodermal lineage have not been extensively studied. Mathematical models can aid in the identification of mechanistic information. In this work we use a population-based modeling approach to understand the mechanism of endoderm induction in hESC, performed experimentally with exposure to Activin A and Activin A supplemented with growth factors (basic fibroblast growth factor (FGF2) and bone morphogenetic protein 4 (BMP4)). The differentiating cell population is analyzed daily for cellular growth, cell death, and expression of the endoderm proteins Sox17 and CXCR4. The stochastic model starts with a population of undifferentiated cells, wherefrom it evolves in time by assigning each cell a propensity to proliferate, die and differentiate using certain user defined rules. Twelve alternate mechanisms which might describe the observed dynamics were simulated, and an ensemble parameter estimation was performed on each mechanism. A comparison of the quality of agreement of experimental data with simulations for several competing mechanisms led to the identification of one which adequately describes the observed dynamics under both induction conditions. The results indicate that hESC commitment to endoderm occurs through an intermediate mesendoderm germ layer which further differentiates into mesoderm and endoderm, and that during induction proliferation of the endoderm germ layer is promoted. Furthermore, our model suggests that CXCR4 is expressed in mesendoderm and endoderm, but is not expressed in mesoderm. Comparison between the two induction conditions indicates that supplementing FGF2 and BMP4 to Activin A enhances the kinetics of differentiation than Activin A alone. This mechanistic information can aid in the derivation of functional, mature cells from their progenitors. While applied to initial endoderm commitment of hESC, the model is general enough to be applicable either to a system of

  8. Quantitative high-throughput screening for chemical toxicity in a population-based in vitro model.

    PubMed

    Lock, Eric F; Abdo, Nour; Huang, Ruili; Xia, Menghang; Kosyk, Oksana; O'Shea, Shannon H; Zhou, Yi-Hui; Sedykh, Alexander; Tropsha, Alexander; Austin, Christopher P; Tice, Raymond R; Wright, Fred A; Rusyn, Ivan

    2012-04-01

    A shift in toxicity testing from in vivo to in vitro may efficiently prioritize compounds, reveal new mechanisms, and enable predictive modeling. Quantitative high-throughput screening (qHTS) is a major source of data for computational toxicology, and our goal in this study was to aid in the development of predictive in vitro models of chemical-induced toxicity, anchored on interindividual genetic variability. Eighty-one human lymphoblast cell lines from 27 Centre d'Etude du Polymorphisme Humain trios were exposed to 240 chemical substances (12 concentrations, 0.26nM-46.0μM) and evaluated for cytotoxicity and apoptosis. qHTS screening in the genetically defined population produced robust and reproducible results, which allowed for cross-compound, cross-assay, and cross-individual comparisons. Some compounds were cytotoxic to all cell types at similar concentrations, whereas others exhibited interindividual differences in cytotoxicity. Specifically, the qHTS in a population-based human in vitro model system has several unique aspects that are of utility for toxicity testing, chemical prioritization, and high-throughput risk assessment. First, standardized and high-quality concentration-response profiling, with reproducibility confirmed by comparison with previous experiments, enables prioritization of chemicals for variability in interindividual range in cytotoxicity. Second, genome-wide association analysis of cytotoxicity phenotypes allows exploration of the potential genetic determinants of interindividual variability in toxicity. Furthermore, highly significant associations identified through the analysis of population-level correlations between basal gene expression variability and chemical-induced toxicity suggest plausible mode of action hypotheses for follow-up analyses. We conclude that as the improved resolution of genetic profiling can now be matched with high-quality in vitro screening data, the evaluation of the toxicity pathways and the effects of

  9. Dynamical modeling and lifetime analysis of geostationary transfer orbits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Yue; Gurfil, Pini

    2016-11-01

    The dynamics and lifetime reduction of geostationary transfer orbits (GTOs) are of great importance to space debris mitigation. The orbital dynamics, subjected to a complex interplay of multiple perturbations, are complicated and sensitive to the initial conditions and model parameters. In this paper, a simple but effective non-singular orbital dynamics model in terms of Milankovitch elements is derived. The orbital dynamics, which include the Earth oblateness, luni-solar perturbations, and atmospheric drag, are averaged over the orbital motion of the GTO object, or, as needed, also over the orbital motions of the Moon and Sun, to eliminate the short-period terms. After the averaging process, the effect of the atmospheric drag assumes a simple analytical form. The averaged orbital model is verified through a numerical simulation compared with commercial orbit propagators. GTO lifetime reduction by using the luni-solar perturbations is studied. It is shown that the long-period luni-solar perturbation is induced by the precession of the GTO orbital plane and apsidal line, whereas the short-period perturbation is induced by the periodic luni-solar orbital motions. The long- and short-period perturbations are isolated and studied separately, and their global distribution with respect to the orbital geometry is given. The desired initial orbital geometry with a short orbital lifetime is found and verified by a numerical simulation.

  10. Toxicogenetics: population-based testing of drug and chemical safety in mouse models

    PubMed Central

    Rusyn, Ivan; Gatti, Daniel M; Wiltshire, Timothy; Kleeberger, Steven R; Threadgill, David W

    2011-01-01

    The rapid decline in the cost of dense genotyping is paving the way for new DNA sequence-based laboratory tests to move quickly into clinical practice, and to ultimately help realize the promise of ‘personalized’ therapies. These advances are based on the growing appreciation of genetics as an important dimension in science and the practice of investigative pharmacology and toxicology. On the clinical side, both the regulators and the pharmaceutical industry hope that the early identification of individuals prone to adverse drug effects will keep advantageous medicines on the market for the benefit of the vast majority of prospective patients. On the environmental health protection side, there is a clear need for better science to define the range and causes of susceptibility to adverse effects of chemicals in the population, so that the appropriate regulatory limits are established. In both cases, most of the research effort is focused on genome-wide association studies in humans where de novo genotyping of each subject is required. At the same time, the power of population-based preclinical safety testing in rodent models (e.g., mouse) remains to be fully exploited. Here, we highlight the approaches available to utilize the knowledge of DNA sequence and genetic diversity of the mouse as a species in mechanistic toxicology research. We posit that appropriate genetically defined mouse models may be combined with the limited data from human studies to not only discover the genetic determinants of susceptibility, but to also understand the molecular underpinnings of toxicity. PMID:20704464

  11. Policy evaluation in diabetes prevention and treatment using a population-based macro simulation model: the MICADO model.

    PubMed

    van der Heijden, A A W A; Feenstra, T L; Hoogenveen, R T; Niessen, L W; de Bruijne, M C; Dekker, J M; Baan, C A; Nijpels, G

    2015-12-01

    To test a simulation model, the MICADO model, for estimating the long-term effects of interventions in people with and without diabetes. The MICADO model includes micro- and macrovascular diseases in relation to their risk factors. The strengths of this model are its population scope and the possibility to assess parameter uncertainty using probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Outcomes include incidence and prevalence of complications, quality of life, costs and cost-effectiveness. We externally validated MICADO's estimates of micro- and macrovascular complications in a Dutch cohort with diabetes (n = 498,400) by comparing these estimates with national and international empirical data. For the annual number of people undergoing amputations, MICADO's estimate was 592 (95% interquantile range 291-842), which compared well with the registered number of people with diabetes-related amputations in the Netherlands (728). The incidence of end-stage renal disease estimated using the MICADO model was 247 people (95% interquartile range 120-363), which was also similar to the registered incidence in the Netherlands (277 people). MICADO performed well in the validation of macrovascular outcomes of population-based cohorts, while it had more difficulty in reflecting a highly selected trial population. Validation by comparison with independent empirical data showed that the MICADO model simulates the natural course of diabetes and its micro- and macrovascular complications well. As a population-based model, MICADO can be applied for projections as well as scenario analyses to evaluate the long-term (cost-)effectiveness of population-level interventions targeting diabetes and its complications in the Netherlands or similar countries. © 2015 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine © 2015 Diabetes UK.

  12. Lifetime pharmacokinetic model for hydrophobic contaminants in marine mammals

    SciTech Connect

    Hickie, B.E.; Mackay, D.; Koning, J. de

    1999-11-01

    A physiologically based pharmacokinetic model is developed that describes the uptake and release of a hydrophobic organic chemical by a marine mammal over its entire lifetime, i.e., from birth to death. This model is applied to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) in the beluga whale (Delphinapterus leucas). The processes treated are growth; uptake from food, milk, and air; disposition of the chemical among arterial and venous blood, liver, muscle, blubber, and rapidly perfused tissues; and losses by metabolism, release in exhaled air; and by egestion. A separate model is developed for females, which includes pregnancy, birth, and lactation. Food consumption is deduced from size, growth, and from activity-dependent bioenergetic data. The results obtained by simulating continuous PCB exposure over a 30-year period are in accordance with reported concentrations and show the importance of milk transfer to both mother and progeny and the tendency for continued accumulation over the animal's lifetime. Implications of the results are discussed, especially the need for improved data on diets, gut absorption characteristics, and various physiological parameters used in the model.

  13. Estimating and modelling cure in population-based cancer studies within the framework of flexible parametric survival models

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background When the mortality among a cancer patient group returns to the same level as in the general population, that is, the patients no longer experience excess mortality, the patients still alive are considered "statistically cured". Cure models can be used to estimate the cure proportion as well as the survival function of the "uncured". One limitation of parametric cure models is that the functional form of the survival of the "uncured" has to be specified. It can sometimes be hard to find a survival function flexible enough to fit the observed data, for example, when there is high excess hazard within a few months from diagnosis, which is common among older age groups. This has led to the exclusion of older age groups in population-based cancer studies using cure models. Methods Here we have extended the flexible parametric survival model to incorporate cure as a special case to estimate the cure proportion and the survival of the "uncured". Flexible parametric survival models use splines to model the underlying hazard function, and therefore no parametric distribution has to be specified. Results We have compared the fit from standard cure models to our flexible cure model, using data on colon cancer patients in Finland. This new method gives similar results to a standard cure model, when it is reliable, and better fit when the standard cure model gives biased estimates. Conclusions Cure models within the framework of flexible parametric models enables cure modelling when standard models give biased estimates. These flexible cure models enable inclusion of older age groups and can give stage-specific estimates, which is not always possible from parametric cure models. PMID:21696598

  14. LCP- LIFETIME COST AND PERFORMANCE MODEL FOR DISTRIBUTED PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Borden, C. S.

    1994-01-01

    The Lifetime Cost and Performance (LCP) Model was developed to assist in the assessment of Photovoltaic (PV) system design options. LCP is a simulation of the performance, cost, and revenue streams associated with distributed PV power systems. LCP provides the user with substantial flexibility in specifying the technical and economic environment of the PV application. User-specified input parameters are available to describe PV system characteristics, site climatic conditions, utility purchase and sellback rate structures, discount and escalation rates, construction timing, and lifetime of the system. Such details as PV array orientation and tilt angle, PV module and balance-of-system performance attributes, and the mode of utility interconnection are user-specified. LCP assumes that the distributed PV system is utility grid interactive without dedicated electrical storage. In combination with a suitable economic model, LCP can provide an estimate of the expected net present worth of a PV system to the owner, as compared to electricity purchased from a utility grid. Similarly, LCP might be used to perform sensitivity analyses to identify those PV system parameters having significant impact on net worth. The user describes the PV system configuration to LCP via the basic electrical components. The module is the smallest entity in the PV system which is modeled. A PV module is defined in the simulation by its short circuit current, which varies over the system lifetime due to degradation and failure. Modules are wired in series to form a branch circuit. Bypass diodes are allowed between modules in the branch circuits. Branch circuits are then connected in parallel to form a bus. A collection of buses is connected in parallel to form an increment to capacity of the system. By choosing the appropriate series-parallel wiring design, the user can specify the current, voltage, and reliability characteristics of the system. LCP simulation of system performance is site

  15. LCP- LIFETIME COST AND PERFORMANCE MODEL FOR DISTRIBUTED PHOTOVOLTAIC SYSTEMS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Borden, C. S.

    1994-01-01

    The Lifetime Cost and Performance (LCP) Model was developed to assist in the assessment of Photovoltaic (PV) system design options. LCP is a simulation of the performance, cost, and revenue streams associated with distributed PV power systems. LCP provides the user with substantial flexibility in specifying the technical and economic environment of the PV application. User-specified input parameters are available to describe PV system characteristics, site climatic conditions, utility purchase and sellback rate structures, discount and escalation rates, construction timing, and lifetime of the system. Such details as PV array orientation and tilt angle, PV module and balance-of-system performance attributes, and the mode of utility interconnection are user-specified. LCP assumes that the distributed PV system is utility grid interactive without dedicated electrical storage. In combination with a suitable economic model, LCP can provide an estimate of the expected net present worth of a PV system to the owner, as compared to electricity purchased from a utility grid. Similarly, LCP might be used to perform sensitivity analyses to identify those PV system parameters having significant impact on net worth. The user describes the PV system configuration to LCP via the basic electrical components. The module is the smallest entity in the PV system which is modeled. A PV module is defined in the simulation by its short circuit current, which varies over the system lifetime due to degradation and failure. Modules are wired in series to form a branch circuit. Bypass diodes are allowed between modules in the branch circuits. Branch circuits are then connected in parallel to form a bus. A collection of buses is connected in parallel to form an increment to capacity of the system. By choosing the appropriate series-parallel wiring design, the user can specify the current, voltage, and reliability characteristics of the system. LCP simulation of system performance is site

  16. Atmospheric drag model calibrations for spacecraft lifetime prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Binebrink, A. L.; Radomski, M. S.; Samii, M. V.

    1989-01-01

    Although solar activity prediction uncertainty normally dominates decay prediction error budget for near-Earth spacecraft, the effect of drag force modeling errors for given levels of solar activity needs to be considered. Two atmospheric density models, the modified Harris-Priester model and the Jacchia-Roberts model, to reproduce the decay histories of the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SME) and Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) spacecraft in the 490- to 540-kilometer altitude range were analyzed. Historical solar activity data were used in the input to the density computations. For each spacecraft and atmospheric model, a drag scaling adjustment factor was determined for a high-solar-activity year, such that the observed annual decay in the mean semimajor axis was reproduced by an averaged variation-of-parameters (VOP) orbit propagation. The SME (SMM) calibration was performed using calendar year 1983 (1982). The resulting calibration factors differ by 20 to 40 percent from the predictions of the prelaunch ballistic coefficients. The orbit propagations for each spacecraft were extended to the middle of 1988 using the calibrated drag models. For the Jaccia-Roberts density model, the observed decay in the mean semimajor axis of SME (SMM) over the 4.5-year (5.5-year) predictive period was reproduced to within 1.5 (4.4) percent. The corresponding figure for the Harris-Priester model was 8.6 (20.6) percent. Detailed results and conclusions regarding the importance of accurate drag force modeling for lifetime predictions are presented.

  17. Determinants of political trust: a lifetime learning model.

    PubMed

    Schoon, Ingrid; Cheng, Helen

    2011-05-01

    This article addresses questions regarding the origins of individual variations in political trust. Using 2 prospective longitudinal studies, we examine the associations between family background, general cognitive ability (g) and school motivation at early age, educational and occupational attainment in adulthood, and political trust measured in early and mid-adulthood in 2 large representative samples of the British population born in 1958 (N = 8,804) and in 1970 (N = 7,194). A lifetime learning model of political trust is tested using structural equation modeling to map the pathways linking early experiences to adult outcomes. Results show that political trust is shaped by both early and later experiences with institutions in society. Individuals who have accumulated more socioeconomic, educational, and motivational resources throughout their life course express higher levels of political trust than do those with fewer resources. (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

  18. Theoretical Models for Vibrational Lifetimes in Amorphous Materials.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Orbach, R.

    1996-03-01

    The lifetimes of high energy lattice vibrational states in amorphous or glassy materials are calculated on the basis of a model in which vibrational states are extended for energies ω < ω_c, and ``super-localized'' for ω > ω_c. This model can account for the plateau in the thermal conductivity κ(T), a feature which is nearly universal for amorphous and glassy materials. The increase of κ(T) for temperatures greater than the plateau temperature arises from anharmonicity-induced localized vibrational state hopping, the major contribution arising from states with energies in the vicinity of ω_c. The same anharmonicity vertex allows one to calculate the anharmonicity-induced vibrational lifetime τ(ω) which can be expressed in terms of the hopping contribution to the thermal conductivity. Though amorphous and glassy materials are certainly not in general mass fractals, the fracton model is a convenient approach to obtain quantitative results. At low temperatures, the high energy (ω>>ω_c) vibrational lifetime is found to be proportional to exp Bigl[Bigl(ω\\over ω_cBigr) ^d_φ/DBigr] where d_φ is the superlocalization exponent of the localized vibrational state, and D is the mass density scaling exponent (equal to the Euclidean dimension d for dense systems, and the fractal dimension for fractal systems). This behavior arises from the combined action of a decrease in localization length, and an increase in the most probable hop distance, with increasing ω. This dependence is quite opposite to that found for crystalline materials where τ(ω) ∝ ω-5. Experiments of Scholten et al.^1 on a-Si:H exhibit the predicted exponential increase of τ(ω) with increasing ω. Using measured values for the third order elastic constant C_111, quantitative agreement is obtained for the 480 cm-1 TO vibration, with τ(ω) = 70 ns. l *Supported by the National Science Foundation.l **In conjunction with Dr. A. Jagannathan, and dedicated to the memory of H. M. Rosenberg

  19. LIFETIME PREDICTION FOR MODEL 9975 O-RINGS IN KAMS

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffman, E.; Skidmore, E.

    2009-11-24

    The Savannah River Site (SRS) is currently storing plutonium materials in the K-Area Materials Storage (KAMS) facility. The materials are packaged per the DOE 3013 Standard and transported and stored in KAMS in Model 9975 shipping packages, which include double containment vessels sealed with dual O-rings made of Parker Seals compound V0835-75 (based on Viton{reg_sign} GLT). The outer O-ring of each containment vessel is credited for leaktight containment per ANSI N14.5. O-ring service life depends on many factors, including the failure criterion, environmental conditions, overall design, fabrication quality and assembly practices. A preliminary life prediction model has been developed for the V0835-75 O-rings in KAMS. The conservative model is based primarily on long-term compression stress relaxation (CSR) experiments and Arrhenius accelerated-aging methodology. For model development purposes, seal lifetime is defined as a 90% loss of measurable sealing force. Thus far, CSR experiments have only reached this target level of degradation at temperatures {ge} 300 F. At lower temperatures, relaxation values are more tolerable. Using time-temperature superposition principles, the conservative model predicts a service life of approximately 20-25 years at a constant seal temperature of 175 F. This represents a maximum payload package at a constant ambient temperature of 104 F, the highest recorded in KAMS to date. This is considered a highly conservative value as such ambient temperatures are only reached on occasion and for short durations. The presence of fiberboard in the package minimizes the impact of such temperature swings, with many hours to several days required for seal temperatures to respond proportionately. At 85 F ambient, a more realistic but still conservative value, bounding seal temperatures are reduced to {approx}158 F, with an estimated seal lifetime of {approx}35-45 years. The actual service life for O-rings in a maximum wattage package likely lies

  20. Sunspot and Starspot Lifetimes in a Turbulent Erosion Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Litvinenko, Yuri E.; Wheatland, M. S.

    2017-01-01

    Quantitative models of sunspot and starspot decay predict the timescale of magnetic diffusion and may yield important constraints in stellar dynamo models. Motivated by recent measurements of starspot lifetimes, we investigate the disintegration of a magnetic flux tube by nonlinear diffusion. Previous theoretical studies are extended by considering two physically motivated functional forms for the nonlinear diffusion coefficient D: an inverse power-law dependence D ∝ B‑ν and a step-function dependence of D on the magnetic field magnitude B. Analytical self-similar solutions are presented for the power-law case, including solutions exhibiting “superfast” diffusion. For the step-function case, the heat-balance integral method yields approximate solutions, valid for moderately suppressed diffusion in the spot. The accuracy of the resulting solutions is confirmed numerically, using a method which provides an accurate description of long-time evolution by imposing boundary conditions at infinite distance from the spot. The new models may allow insight into the differences and similarities between sunspots and starspots.

  1. Simulation of Population-Based Commuter Exposure to NO2 Using Different Air Pollution Models

    PubMed Central

    Ragettli, Martina S.; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Braun-Fahrländer, Charlotte; de Nazelle, Audrey; Schindler, Christian; Ineichen, Alex; Ducret-Stich, Regina E.; Perez, Laura; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Künzli, Nino; Phuleria, Harish C.

    2014-01-01

    We simulated commuter routes and long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution during commute in a representative population sample in Basel (Switzerland), and evaluated three air pollution models with different spatial resolution for estimating commute exposures to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) as a marker of long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution. Our approach includes spatially and temporally resolved data on actual commuter routes, travel modes and three air pollution models. Annual mean NO2 commuter exposures were similar between models. However, we found more within-city and within-subject variability in annual mean (±SD) NO2 commuter exposure with a high resolution dispersion model (40 ± 7 µg m−3, range: 21–61) than with a dispersion model with a lower resolution (39 ± 5 µg m−3; range: 24–51), and a land use regression model (41 ± 5 µg m−3; range: 24–54). Highest median cumulative exposures were calculated along motorized transport and bicycle routes, and the lowest for walking. For estimating commuter exposure within a city and being interested also in small-scale variability between roads, a model with a high resolution is recommended. For larger scale epidemiological health assessment studies, models with a coarser spatial resolution are likely sufficient, especially when study areas include suburban and rural areas. PMID:24823664

  2. Simulation of population-based commuter exposure to NO₂ using different air pollution models.

    PubMed

    Ragettli, Martina S; Tsai, Ming-Yi; Braun-Fahrländer, Charlotte; de Nazelle, Audrey; Schindler, Christian; Ineichen, Alex; Ducret-Stich, Regina E; Perez, Laura; Probst-Hensch, Nicole; Künzli, Nino; Phuleria, Harish C

    2014-05-12

    We simulated commuter routes and long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution during commute in a representative population sample in Basel (Switzerland), and evaluated three air pollution models with different spatial resolution for estimating commute exposures to nitrogen dioxide (NO2) as a marker of long-term exposure to traffic-related air pollution. Our approach includes spatially and temporally resolved data on actual commuter routes, travel modes and three air pollution models. Annual mean NO2 commuter exposures were similar between models. However, we found more within-city and within-subject variability in annual mean (±SD) NO2 commuter exposure with a high resolution dispersion model (40 ± 7 µg m(-3), range: 21-61) than with a dispersion model with a lower resolution (39 ± 5 µg m(-3); range: 24-51), and a land use regression model (41 ± 5 µg m(-3); range: 24-54). Highest median cumulative exposures were calculated along motorized transport and bicycle routes, and the lowest for walking. For estimating commuter exposure within a city and being interested also in small-scale variability between roads, a model with a high resolution is recommended. For larger scale epidemiological health assessment studies, models with a coarser spatial resolution are likely sufficient, especially when study areas include suburban and rural areas.

  3. Modeling of BN Lifetime Prediction of a System Based on Integrated Multi-Level Information.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jingbin; Wang, Xiaohong; Wang, Lizhi

    2017-09-15

    Predicting system lifetime is important to ensure safe and reliable operation of products, which requires integrated modeling based on multi-level, multi-sensor information. However, lifetime characteristics of equipment in a system are different and failure mechanisms are inter-coupled, which leads to complex logical correlations and the lack of a uniform lifetime measure. Based on a Bayesian network (BN), a lifetime prediction method for systems that combine multi-level sensor information is proposed. The method considers the correlation between accidental failures and degradation failure mechanisms, and achieves system modeling and lifetime prediction under complex logic correlations. This method is applied in the lifetime prediction of a multi-level solar-powered unmanned system, and the predicted results can provide guidance for the improvement of system reliability and for the maintenance and protection of the system.

  4. Evaluation of a spatially resolved forest fire smoke model for population-based epidemiologic exposure assessment.

    PubMed

    Yao, Jiayun; Eyamie, Jeff; Henderson, Sarah B

    2016-01-01

    Exposure to forest fire smoke (FFS) is associated with multiple adverse health effects, mostly respiratory. Findings for cardiovascular effects have been inconsistent, possibly related to the limitations of conventional methods to assess FFS exposure. In previous work, we developed an empirical model to estimate smoke-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for all populated areas in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Here, we evaluate the utility of our model by comparing epidemiologic associations between modeled and measured PM2.5. For each local health area (LHA), we used Poisson regression to estimate the effects of PM2.5 estimates and measurements on counts of medication dispensations and outpatient physician visits. We then used meta-regression to estimate the overall effects. A 10 μg/m(3) increase in modeled PM2.5 was associated with increased sabutamol dispensations (RR=1.04, 95% CI 1.03-1.06), and physician visits for asthma (1.06, 1.04-1.08), COPD (1.02, 1.00-1.03), lower respiratory infections (1.03, 1.00-1.05), and otitis media (1.05, 1.03-1.07), all comparable to measured PM2.5. Effects on cardiovascular outcomes were only significant using model estimates in all LHAs during extreme fire days. This suggests that the exposure model is a promising tool for increasing the power of epidemiologic studies to detect the health effects of FFS via improved spatial coverage and resolution.

  5. Personalized prediction of lifetime benefits with statin therapy for asymptomatic individuals: a modeling study.

    PubMed

    Ferket, Bart S; van Kempen, Bob J H; Heeringa, Jan; Spronk, Sandra; Fleischmann, Kirsten E; Nijhuis, Rogier L G; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Hunink, M G Myriam

    2012-01-01

    Physicians need to inform asymptomatic individuals about personalized outcomes of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current prediction models focus on short-term outcomes and ignore the competing risk of death due to other causes. We aimed to predict the potential lifetime benefits with statin therapy, taking into account competing risks. A microsimulation model based on 5-y follow-up data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort of individuals aged 55 y and older living in the Ommoord district of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, was used to estimate lifetime outcomes with and without statin therapy. The model was validated in-sample using 10-y follow-up data. We used baseline variables and model output to construct (1) a web-based calculator for gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy and (2) color charts for comparing these gains to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) charts. In 2,428 participants (mean age 67.7 y, 35.5% men), statin therapy increased total life expectancy by 0.3 y (SD 0.2) and CVD-free life expectancy by 0.7 y (SD 0.4). Age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, hypertension, lipids, diabetes, glucose, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and creatinine were included in the calculator. Gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy increased with blood pressure, unfavorable lipid levels, and body mass index after multivariable adjustment. Gains decreased considerably with advancing age, while SCORE 10-y CVD mortality risk increased with age. Twenty-five percent of participants with a low SCORE risk achieved equal or larger gains in CVD-free life expectancy than the median gain in participants with a high SCORE risk. We developed tools to predict personalized increases in total and CVD-free life expectancy with statin therapy. The predicted gains we found are small. If the underlying model is validated in an independent cohort, the tools may be useful in discussing with patients their

  6. Personalized Prediction of Lifetime Benefits with Statin Therapy for Asymptomatic Individuals: A Modeling Study

    PubMed Central

    Ferket, Bart S.; van Kempen, Bob J. H.; Heeringa, Jan; Spronk, Sandra; Fleischmann, Kirsten E.; Nijhuis, Rogier L. G.; Hofman, Albert; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Hunink, M. G. Myriam

    2012-01-01

    Background Physicians need to inform asymptomatic individuals about personalized outcomes of statin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, current prediction models focus on short-term outcomes and ignore the competing risk of death due to other causes. We aimed to predict the potential lifetime benefits with statin therapy, taking into account competing risks. Methods and Findings A microsimulation model based on 5-y follow-up data from the Rotterdam Study, a population-based cohort of individuals aged 55 y and older living in the Ommoord district of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, was used to estimate lifetime outcomes with and without statin therapy. The model was validated in-sample using 10-y follow-up data. We used baseline variables and model output to construct (1) a web-based calculator for gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy and (2) color charts for comparing these gains to the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) charts. In 2,428 participants (mean age 67.7 y, 35.5% men), statin therapy increased total life expectancy by 0.3 y (SD 0.2) and CVD-free life expectancy by 0.7 y (SD 0.4). Age, sex, smoking, blood pressure, hypertension, lipids, diabetes, glucose, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and creatinine were included in the calculator. Gains in total and CVD-free life expectancy increased with blood pressure, unfavorable lipid levels, and body mass index after multivariable adjustment. Gains decreased considerably with advancing age, while SCORE 10-y CVD mortality risk increased with age. Twenty-five percent of participants with a low SCORE risk achieved equal or larger gains in CVD-free life expectancy than the median gain in participants with a high SCORE risk. Conclusions We developed tools to predict personalized increases in total and CVD-free life expectancy with statin therapy. The predicted gains we found are small. If the underlying model is validated in an independent cohort, the tools may be

  7. Recording Lifetime Behavior and Movement in an Invertebrate Model

    PubMed Central

    Zou, Sige; Liedo, Pablo; Altamirano-Robles, Leopoldo; Cruz-Enriquez, Janeth; Morice, Amy; Ingram, Donald K.; Kaub, Kevin; Papadopoulos, Nikos; Carey, James R.

    2011-01-01

    Characterization of lifetime behavioral changes is essential for understanding aging and aging-related diseases. However, such studies are scarce partly due to the lack of efficient tools. Here we describe and provide proof of concept for a stereo vision system that classifies and sequentially records at an extremely fine scale six different behaviors (resting, micro-movement, walking, flying, feeding and drinking) and the within-cage (3D) location of individual tephritid fruit flies by time-of-day throughout their lives. Using flies fed on two different diets, full sugar-yeast and sugar-only diets, we report for the first time their behavioral changes throughout their lives at a high resolution. We have found that the daily activity peaks at the age of 15–20 days and then gradually declines with age for flies on both diets. However, the overall daily activity is higher for flies on sugar-only diet than those on the full diet. Flies on sugar-only diet show a stronger diurnal localization pattern with higher preference to staying on the top of the cage during the period of light-off when compared to flies on the full diet. Clustering analyses of age-specific behavior patterns reveal three distinct young, middle-aged and old clusters for flies on each of the two diets. The middle-aged groups for flies on sugar-only diet consist of much younger age groups when compared to flies on full diet. This technology provides research opportunities for using a behavioral informatics approach for understanding different ways in which behavior, movement, and aging in model organisms are mutually affecting. PMID:21559058

  8. Evaluation of a spatially resolved forest fire smoke model for population-based epidemiologic exposure assessment

    PubMed Central

    Yao, Jiayun; Eyamie, Jeff; Henderson, Sarah B

    2016-01-01

    Exposure to forest fire smoke (FFS) is associated with multiple adverse health effects, mostly respiratory. Findings for cardiovascular effects have been inconsistent, possibly related to the limitations of conventional methods to assess FFS exposure. In previous work, we developed an empirical model to estimate smoke-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for all populated areas in British Columbia (BC), Canada. Here, we evaluate the utility of our model by comparing epidemiologic associations between modeled and measured PM2.5. For each local health area (LHA), we used Poisson regression to estimate the effects of PM2.5 estimates and measurements on counts of medication dispensations and outpatient physician visits. We then used meta-regression to estimate the overall effects. A 10 μg/m3 increase in modeled PM2.5 was associated with increased sabutamol dispensations (RR=1.04, 95% CI 1.03–1.06), and physician visits for asthma (1.06, 1.04–1.08), COPD (1.02, 1.00–1.03), lower respiratory infections (1.03, 1.00–1.05), and otitis media (1.05, 1.03–1.07), all comparable to measured PM2.5. Effects on cardiovascular outcomes were only significant using model estimates in all LHAs during extreme fire days. This suggests that the exposure model is a promising tool for increasing the power of epidemiologic studies to detect the health effects of FFS via improved spatial coverage and resolution. PMID:25294305

  9. Mathematical model for adaptive evolution of populations based on a complex domain

    PubMed Central

    Ibrahim, Rabha W.; Ahmad, M.Z.; Al-Janaby, Hiba F.

    2015-01-01

    A mutation is ultimately essential for adaptive evolution in all populations. It arises all the time, but is mostly fixed by enzymes. Further, most do consider that the evolution mechanism is by a natural assortment of variations in organisms in line for random variations in their DNA, and the suggestions for this are overwhelming. The altering of the construction of a gene, causing a different form that may be communicated to succeeding generations, produced by the modification of single base units in DNA, or the deletion, insertion, or rearrangement of larger units of chromosomes or genes. This altering is called a mutation. In this paper, a mathematical model is introduced to this reality. The model describes the time and space for the evolution. The tool is based on a complex domain for the space. We show that the evolution is distributed with the hypergeometric function. The Boundedness of the evolution is imposed by utilizing the Koebe function. PMID:26858564

  10. Predicting high-cost pediatric patients: derivation and validation of a population-based model.

    PubMed

    Leininger, Lindsey J; Saloner, Brendan; Wherry, Laura R

    2015-08-01

    Health care administrators often lack feasible methods to prospectively identify new pediatric patients with high health care needs, precluding the ability to proactively target appropriate population health management programs to these children. To develop and validate a predictive model identifying high-cost pediatric patients using parent-reported health (PRH) measures that can be easily collected in clinical and administrative settings. Retrospective cohort study using 2-year panel data from the 2001 to 2011 rounds of the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. A total of 24,163 children aged 5-17 with family incomes below 400% of the federal poverty line were included in this study. Predictive performance, including the c-statistic, sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values, of multivariate logistic regression models predicting top-decile health care expenditures over a 1-year period. Seven independent domains of PRH measures were tested for predictive capacity relative to basic sociodemographic information: the Children with Special Health Care Needs (CSHCN) Screener; subjectively rated health status; prior year health care utilization; behavioral problems; asthma diagnosis; access to health care; and parental health status and access to care. The CSHCN screener and prior year utilization domains exhibited the highest incremental predictive gains over the baseline model. A model including sociodemographic characteristics, the CSHCN screener, and prior year utilization had a c-statistic of 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.74), surpassing the commonly used threshold to establish sufficient predictive capacity (c-statistic>0.70). The proposed prediction tool, comprising a simple series of PRH measures, accurately stratifies pediatric populations by their risk of incurring high health care costs.

  11. Identifying genetic loci associated with antidepressant drug response with drug-gene interaction models in a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Noordam, Raymond; Direk, Nese; Sitlani, Colleen M; Aarts, Nikkie; Tiemeier, Henning; Hofman, Albert; Uitterlinden, André G; Psaty, Bruce M; Stricker, Bruno H; Visser, Loes E

    2015-03-01

    It has been difficult to identify genes affecting drug response to Selective Serotonin Reuptake Inhibitors (SSRIs). We used multiple cross-sectional assessments of depressive symptoms in a population-based study to identify potential genetic interactions with SSRIs as a model to study genetic variants associated with SSRI response. This study, embedded in the prospective Rotterdam Study, included all successfully genotyped participants with data on depressive symptoms (CES-D scores). We used repeated measurement models to test multiplicative interaction between genetic variants and use of SSRIs on repeated CESD scores. Besides a genome-wide analysis, we also performed an analysis which was restricted to genes related to the serotonergic signaling pathway. A total of 273 out of 14,937 assessments of depressive symptoms in 6443 participants, use of an SSRI was recorded. After correction for multiple testing, no plausible loci were identified in the genome-wide analysis. However, among the top 10 independent loci with the lowest p-values, findings within two genes (FSHR and HMGB4) might be of interest. Among 26 genes related to the serotonergic signaling pathway, the rs6108160 polymorphism in the PLCB1 gene reached statistical significance after Bonferroni correction (p-value = 8.1e-5). Also, the widely replicated 102C > T polymorphism in the HTR2A gene showed a statistically significant drug-gene interaction with SSRI use. Therefore, the present study suggests that drug-gene interaction models on (repeated) cross-sectional assessments of depressive symptoms in a population-based study can identify potential loci that may influence SSRI response.

  12. Performance and Cost-Effectiveness of Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening Scenarios in a Population-Based Setting: A Microsimulation Modeling Analysis in Ontario, Canada

    PubMed Central

    ten Haaf, Kevin; Tammemägi, Martin C.; Bondy, Susan J.; van der Aalst, Carlijn M.; Gu, Sumei; de Koning, Harry J.

    2017-01-01

    Background The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) results indicate that computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening for current and former smokers with three annual screens can be cost-effective in a trial setting. However, the cost-effectiveness in a population-based setting with >3 screening rounds is uncertain. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in a population-based setting in Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the effects of screening eligibility criteria. Methods and Findings This study used microsimulation modeling informed by various data sources, including the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP), Ontario Cancer Registry, smoking behavior surveys, and the NLST. Persons, born between 1940 and 1969, were examined from a third-party health care payer perspective across a lifetime horizon. Starting in 2015, 576 CT screening scenarios were examined, varying by age to start and end screening, smoking eligibility criteria, and screening interval. Among the examined outcome measures were lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained, percentage ever screened, costs (in 2015 Canadian dollars), and overdiagnosis. The results of the base-case analysis indicated that annual screening was more cost-effective than biennial screening. Scenarios with eligibility criteria that required as few as 20 pack-years were dominated by scenarios that required higher numbers of accumulated pack-years. In general, scenarios that applied stringent smoking eligibility criteria (i.e., requiring higher levels of accumulated smoking exposure) were more cost-effective than scenarios with less stringent smoking eligibility criteria, with modest differences in life-years gained. Annual screening between ages 55–75 for persons who smoked ≥40 pack-years and who currently smoke or quit ≤10 y ago yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,136 Canadian dollars ($33,825 in May 1, 2015, United States dollars) per

  13. Performance and Cost-Effectiveness of Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening Scenarios in a Population-Based Setting: A Microsimulation Modeling Analysis in Ontario, Canada.

    PubMed

    Ten Haaf, Kevin; Tammemägi, Martin C; Bondy, Susan J; van der Aalst, Carlijn M; Gu, Sumei; McGregor, S Elizabeth; Nicholas, Garth; de Koning, Harry J; Paszat, Lawrence F

    2017-02-01

    The National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) results indicate that computed tomography (CT) lung cancer screening for current and former smokers with three annual screens can be cost-effective in a trial setting. However, the cost-effectiveness in a population-based setting with >3 screening rounds is uncertain. Therefore, the objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening in a population-based setting in Ontario, Canada, and evaluate the effects of screening eligibility criteria. This study used microsimulation modeling informed by various data sources, including the Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP), Ontario Cancer Registry, smoking behavior surveys, and the NLST. Persons, born between 1940 and 1969, were examined from a third-party health care payer perspective across a lifetime horizon. Starting in 2015, 576 CT screening scenarios were examined, varying by age to start and end screening, smoking eligibility criteria, and screening interval. Among the examined outcome measures were lung cancer deaths averted, life-years gained, percentage ever screened, costs (in 2015 Canadian dollars), and overdiagnosis. The results of the base-case analysis indicated that annual screening was more cost-effective than biennial screening. Scenarios with eligibility criteria that required as few as 20 pack-years were dominated by scenarios that required higher numbers of accumulated pack-years. In general, scenarios that applied stringent smoking eligibility criteria (i.e., requiring higher levels of accumulated smoking exposure) were more cost-effective than scenarios with less stringent smoking eligibility criteria, with modest differences in life-years gained. Annual screening between ages 55-75 for persons who smoked ≥40 pack-years and who currently smoke or quit ≤10 y ago yielded an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $41,136 Canadian dollars ($33,825 in May 1, 2015, United States dollars) per life-year gained (compared to

  14. Associations between five-factor model traits and perceived job strain: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Törnroos, Maria; Hintsanen, Mirka; Hintsa, Taina; Jokela, Markus; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa

    2013-10-01

    This study examined the association between Five-Factor Model personality traits and perceived job strain. The sample consisted of 758 women and 614 men (aged 30-45 years in 2007) participating in the Young Finns study. Personality was assessed with the Neuroticism, Extraversion, Openness, Five-Factor Inventory (NEO-FFI) questionnaire and work stress according to Karasek's demand-control model of job strain. The associations between personality traits and job strain and its components were measured by linear regression analyses where the traits were first entered individually and then simultaneously. The results for the associations between individually entered personality traits showed that high neuroticism, low extraversion, low openness, low conscientiousness, and low agreeableness were associated with high job strain. High neuroticism, high openness, and low agreeableness were related to high demands, whereas high neuroticism, low extraversion, low openness, low conscientiousness, and low agreeableness were associated with low control. In the analyses for the simultaneously entered traits, high neuroticism, low openness, and low conscientiousness were associated with high job strain. In addition, high neuroticism was related to high demands and low control, whereas low extraversion was related to low demands and low control. Low openness and low conscientiousness were also related to low control. This study suggests that personality is related to perceived job strain. Perceptions of work stressors and decision latitude are not only indicators of structural aspects of work but also indicate that there are individual differences in how individuals experience their work environment.

  15. Peristomal Skin Complications Are Common, Expensive, and Difficult to Manage: A Population Based Cost Modeling Study

    PubMed Central

    Meisner, Søren; Lehur, Paul-Antoine; Moran, Brendan; Martins, Lina; Jemec, Gregor Borut Ernst

    2012-01-01

    Background Peristomal skin complications (PSCs) are the most common post-operative complications following creation of a stoma. Living with a stoma is a challenge, not only for the patient and their carers, but also for society as a whole. Due to methodological problems of PSC assessment, the associated health-economic burden of medium to longterm complications has been poorly described. Aim The aim of the present study was to create a model to estimate treatment costs of PSCs using the standardized assessment Ostomy Skin Tool as a reference. The resultant model was applied to a real-life global data set of stoma patients (n = 3017) to determine the prevalence and financial burden of PSCs. Methods Eleven experienced stoma care nurses were interviewed to get a global understanding of a treatment algorithm that formed the basis of the cost analysis. The estimated costs were based on a seven week treatment period. PSC costs were estimated for five underlying diagnostic categories and three levels of severity. The estimated treatment costs of severe cases of PSCs were increased 2–5 fold for the different diagnostic categories of PSCs compared with mild cases. French unit costs were applied to the global data set. Results The estimated total average cost for a seven week treatment period (including appliances and accessories) was 263€ for those with PSCs (n = 1742) compared to 215€ for those without PSCs (n = 1172). A co-variance analysis showed that leakage level had a significant impact on PSC cost from ‘rarely/never’ to ‘always/often’ p<0.00001 and from ‘rarely/never’ to ‘sometimes’ p = 0.0115. Conclusion PSCs are common and troublesome and the consequences are substantial, both for the patient and from a health economic viewpoint. PSCs should be diagnosed and treated at an early stage to prevent long term, debilitating and expensive complications. PMID:22679479

  16. Analysis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis as a multistep process: a population-based modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Al-Chalabi, Ammar; Calvo, Andrea; Chio, Adriano; Colville, Shuna; Ellis, Cathy M; Hardiman, Orla; Heverin, Mark; Howard, Robin S; Huisman, Mark H B; Keren, Noa; Leigh, P Nigel; Mazzini, Letizia; Mora, Gabriele; Orrell, Richard W; Rooney, James; Scott, Kirsten M; Scotton, William J; Seelen, Meinie; Shaw, Christopher E; Sidle, Katie S; Swingler, Robert; Tsuda, Miho; Veldink, Jan H; Visser, Anne E; van den Berg, Leonard H; Pearce, Neil

    2014-01-01

    Summary Background Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis shares characteristics with some cancers, such as onset being more common in later life, progression usually being rapid, the disease affecting a particular cell type, and showing complex inheritance. We used a model originally applied to cancer epidemiology to investigate the hypothesis that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a multistep process. Methods We generated incidence data by age and sex from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis population registers in Ireland (registration dates 1995–2012), the Netherlands (2006–12), Italy (1995–2004), Scotland (1989–98), and England (2002–09), and calculated age and sex-adjusted incidences for each register. We regressed the log of age-specific incidence against the log of age with least squares regression. We did the analyses within each register, and also did a combined analysis, adjusting for register. Findings We identified 6274 cases of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from a catchment population of about 34 million people. We noted a linear relationship between log incidence and log age in all five registers: England r2=0·95, Ireland r2=0·99, Italy r2=0·95, the Netherlands r2=0·99, and Scotland r2=0·97; overall r2=0·99. All five registers gave similar estimates of the linear slope ranging from 4·5 to 5·1, with overlapping confidence intervals. The combination of all five registers gave an overall slope of 4·8 (95% CI 4·5–5·0), with similar estimates for men (4·6, 4·3–4·9) and women (5·0, 4·5–5·5). Interpretation A linear relationship between the log incidence and log age of onset of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is consistent with a multistage model of disease. The slope estimate suggests that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a six-step process. Identification of these steps could lead to preventive and therapeutic avenues. Funding UK Medical Research Council; UK Economic and Social Research Council; Ireland Health Research Board; The

  17. Analysis of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis as a multistep process: a population-based modelling study.

    PubMed

    Al-Chalabi, Ammar; Calvo, Andrea; Chio, Adriano; Colville, Shuna; Ellis, Cathy M; Hardiman, Orla; Heverin, Mark; Howard, Robin S; Huisman, Mark H B; Keren, Noa; Leigh, P Nigel; Mazzini, Letizia; Mora, Gabriele; Orrell, Richard W; Rooney, James; Scott, Kirsten M; Scotton, William J; Seelen, Meinie; Shaw, Christopher E; Sidle, Katie S; Swingler, Robert; Tsuda, Miho; Veldink, Jan H; Visser, Anne E; van den Berg, Leonard H; Pearce, Neil

    2014-11-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis shares characteristics with some cancers, such as onset being more common in later life, progression usually being rapid, the disease affecting a particular cell type, and showing complex inheritance. We used a model originally applied to cancer epidemiology to investigate the hypothesis that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a multistep process. We generated incidence data by age and sex from amyotrophic lateral sclerosis population registers in Ireland (registration dates 1995-2012), the Netherlands (2006-12), Italy (1995-2004), Scotland (1989-98), and England (2002-09), and calculated age and sex-adjusted incidences for each register. We regressed the log of age-specific incidence against the log of age with least squares regression. We did the analyses within each register, and also did a combined analysis, adjusting for register. We identified 6274 cases of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis from a catchment population of about 34 million people. We noted a linear relationship between log incidence and log age in all five registers: England r(2)=0·95, Ireland r(2)=0·99, Italy r(2)=0·95, the Netherlands r(2)=0·99, and Scotland r(2)=0·97; overall r(2)=0·99. All five registers gave similar estimates of the linear slope ranging from 4·5 to 5·1, with overlapping confidence intervals. The combination of all five registers gave an overall slope of 4·8 (95% CI 4·5-5·0), with similar estimates for men (4·6, 4·3-4·9) and women (5·0, 4·5-5·5). A linear relationship between the log incidence and log age of onset of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is consistent with a multistage model of disease. The slope estimate suggests that amyotrophic lateral sclerosis is a six-step process. Identification of these steps could lead to preventive and therapeutic avenues. UK Medical Research Council; UK Economic and Social Research Council; Ireland Health Research Board; The Netherlands Organisation for Health Research and Development (ZonMw); the

  18. Advanced Models and Controls for Prediction and Extension of Battery Lifetime (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, K.; Wood, E.; Santhanagopalan, S.; Kim, G.; Pesaran, A.

    2014-02-01

    Predictive models of capacity and power fade must consider a multiplicity of degradation modes experienced by Li-ion batteries in the automotive environment. Lacking accurate models and tests, lifetime uncertainty must presently be absorbed by overdesign and excess warranty costs. To reduce these costs and extend life, degradation models are under development that predict lifetime more accurately and with less test data. The lifetime models provide engineering feedback for cell, pack and system designs and are being incorporated into real-time control strategies.

  19. Measuring and modeling the lifetime of nitrous oxide including its variability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prather, Michael J.; Hsu, Juno; DeLuca, Nicole M.; Jackman, Charles H.; Oman, Luke D.; Douglass, Anne R.; Fleming, Eric L.; Strahan, Susan E.; Steenrod, Stephen D.; Søvde, O. Amund; Isaksen, Ivar S. A.; Froidevaux, Lucien; Funke, Bernd

    2015-06-01

    The lifetime of nitrous oxide, the third-most-important human-emitted greenhouse gas, is based to date primarily on model studies or scaling to other gases. This work calculates a semiempirical lifetime based on Microwave Limb Sounder satellite measurements of stratospheric profiles of nitrous oxide, ozone, and temperature; laboratory cross-section data for ozone and molecular oxygen plus kinetics for O(1D); the observed solar spectrum; and a simple radiative transfer model. The result is 116 ± 9 years. The observed monthly-to-biennial variations in lifetime and tropical abundance are well matched by four independent chemistry-transport models driven by reanalysis meteorological fields for the period of observation (2005-2010), but all these models overestimate the lifetime due to lower abundances in the critical loss region near 32 km in the tropics. These models plus a chemistry-climate model agree on the nitrous oxide feedback factor on its own lifetime of 0.94 ± 0.01, giving N2O perturbations an effective residence time of 109 years. Combining this new empirical lifetime with model estimates of residence time and preindustrial lifetime (123 years) adjusts our best estimates of the human-natural balance of emissions today and improves the accuracy of projected nitrous oxide increases over this century.

  20. Are Immigrants and Nationals Born to Immigrants at Higher Risk for Delayed or No Lifetime Breast and Cervical Cancer Screening? The Results from a Population-Based Survey in Paris Metropolitan Area in 2010

    PubMed Central

    Rondet, Claire; Lapostolle, Annabelle; Soler, Marion; Grillo, Francesca; Parizot, Isabelle; Chauvin, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    Objectives This study aims to compare breast cancer screening (BCS) and cervical cancer screening (CCS) practices of French women born to French parents with those of immigrants and nationals born to immigrants, taking their socioeconomic status into account. Methods The study is based on data collected in 2010 in the Paris metropolitan area among a representative sample of 3000 French-speaking adults. For women with no history of breast or cervical cancer, multivariate logistic regressions and structural equation models were used to investigate the factors associated with never having undergone BCS or CCS. Results We confirmed the existence of a strong gradient, with respect to migration origin, for delaying or never having undergone BCS or CCS. Thus, being a foreign immigrant or being French of immigrant parentage were risk factors for delayed and no lifetime screening. Interestingly, we found that this gradient persisted (at least partially) after adjusting for the women’s socioeconomic characteristics. Only the level of income seemed to play a mediating role, but only partially. We observed differences between BCS and CCS which suggest that organized CCS could be effective in reducing socioeconomic and/or ethnic inequities. Conclusion Socioeconomic status partially explained the screening nonparticipation on the part of French women of immigrant origin and foreign immigrants. This was more so the case with CCS than with BCS, which suggests that organized prevention programs might reduce social inequalities. PMID:24466323

  1. Are immigrants and nationals born to immigrants at higher risk for delayed or no lifetime breast and cervical cancer screening? The results from a population-based survey in Paris metropolitan area in 2010.

    PubMed

    Rondet, Claire; Lapostolle, Annabelle; Soler, Marion; Grillo, Francesca; Parizot, Isabelle; Chauvin, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to compare breast cancer screening (BCS) and cervical cancer screening (CCS) practices of French women born to French parents with those of immigrants and nationals born to immigrants, taking their socioeconomic status into account. The study is based on data collected in 2010 in the Paris metropolitan area among a representative sample of 3000 French-speaking adults. For women with no history of breast or cervical cancer, multivariate logistic regressions and structural equation models were used to investigate the factors associated with never having undergone BCS or CCS. We confirmed the existence of a strong gradient, with respect to migration origin, for delaying or never having undergone BCS or CCS. Thus, being a foreign immigrant or being French of immigrant parentage were risk factors for delayed and no lifetime screening. Interestingly, we found that this gradient persisted (at least partially) after adjusting for the women's socioeconomic characteristics. Only the level of income seemed to play a mediating role, but only partially. We observed differences between BCS and CCS which suggest that organized CCS could be effective in reducing socioeconomic and/or ethnic inequities. Socioeconomic status partially explained the screening nonparticipation on the part of French women of immigrant origin and foreign immigrants. This was more so the case with CCS than with BCS, which suggests that organized prevention programs might reduce social inequalities.

  2. Radiation-induced aging of PDMS Elastomer TR-55: a summary of constitutive, mesoscale, and population-based models

    SciTech Connect

    Maiti, A; Weisgraber, T. H.; Dinh, L. N.

    2016-11-16

    Filled and cross-linked elastomeric rubbers are versatile network materials with a multitude of applications ranging from artificial organs and biomedical devices to cushions, coatings, adhesives, interconnects, and seismic-isolation-, thermal-, and electrical barriers. External factors like mechanical stress, temperature fluctuations, or radiation are known to create chemical changes in such materials that can directly affect the molecular weight distribution (MWD) of the polymer between cross-links and alter the structural and mechanical properties. From a Materials Science point of view it is highly desirable to understand, effect, and manipulate such property changes in a controlled manner. In this report we summarize our modeling efforts on a polysiloxane elastomer TR-55, which is an important component in several of our systems, and representative of a wide class of filled rubber materials. The primary aging driver in this work has been γ-radiation, and a variety of modeling approaches have been employed, including constitutive, mesoscale, and population-based models. The work utilizes diverse experimental data, including mechanical stress-strain and compression set measurements, as well as MWD measurements using multiquantum NMR.

  3. Applying the effort-reward imbalance model to household and family work: a population-based study of German mothers.

    PubMed

    Sperlich, Stefanie; Peter, Richard; Geyer, Siegfried

    2012-01-06

    This paper reports on results of a newly developed questionnaire for the assessment of effort-reward imbalance (ERI) in unpaid household and family work. Using a cross-sectional population-based survey of German mothers (n = 3129) the dimensional structure of the theoretical ERI model was validated by means of Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). Analyses of Variance were computed to examine relationships between ERI and social factors and health outcomes. CFA revealed good psychometric properties indicating that the subscale 'effort' is based on one latent factor and the subscale 'reward' is composed of four dimensions: 'intrinsic value of family and household work', 'societal esteem', 'recognition from the partner', and 'affection from the child(ren)'. About 19.3% of mothers perceived lack of reciprocity and 23.8% showed high rates of overcommitment in terms of inability to withdraw from household and family obligations. Socially disadvantaged mothers were at higher risk of ERI, in particular with respect to the perception of low societal esteem. Gender inequality in the division of household and family work and work-family conflict accounted most for ERI in household and family work. Analogous to ERI in paid work we could demonstrate that ERI affects self-rated health, somatic complaints, mental health and, to some extent, hypertension. The newly developed questionnaire demonstrates satisfied validity and promising results for extending the ERI model to household and family work.

  4. Applying the effort-reward imbalance model to household and family work: a population-based study of German mothers

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background This paper reports on results of a newly developed questionnaire for the assessment of effort-reward imbalance (ERI) in unpaid household and family work. Methods: Using a cross-sectional population-based survey of German mothers (n = 3129) the dimensional structure of the theoretical ERI model was validated by means of Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA). Analyses of Variance were computed to examine relationships between ERI and social factors and health outcomes. Results CFA revealed good psychometric properties indicating that the subscale 'effort' is based on one latent factor and the subscale 'reward' is composed of four dimensions: 'intrinsic value of family and household work', 'societal esteem', 'recognition from the partner', and 'affection from the child(ren)'. About 19.3% of mothers perceived lack of reciprocity and 23.8% showed high rates of overcommitment in terms of inability to withdraw from household and family obligations. Socially disadvantaged mothers were at higher risk of ERI, in particular with respect to the perception of low societal esteem. Gender inequality in the division of household and family work and work-family conflict accounted most for ERI in household and family work. Analogous to ERI in paid work we could demonstrate that ERI affects self-rated health, somatic complaints, mental health and, to some extent, hypertension. Conclusions The newly developed questionnaire demonstrates satisfied validity and promising results for extending the ERI model to household and family work. PMID:22221851

  5. Environment and the Lifetime of Tropical Deep Convection in a Cloud-Permitting Regional Model Simulation

    SciTech Connect

    Hagos, Samson M.; Feng, Zhe; McFarlane, Sally A.; Leung, Lai-Yung R.

    2013-08-01

    By applying a cloud tracking algorithm to tropical convective systems simulated by a regional high resolution model, the study documents environmental conditions before and after convective systems are initiated over ocean and land by following them during their lifetime. The comparative roles of various environmental fields in affecting the lifetime of convection are also quantified. The statistics of lifetime, maximum area, propagation speed and direction of the simulated deep convection agrees well with geostationary satellite observations. Over ocean, convective systems enhance surface fluxes through the associated wind gusts as well as cooling and drying of the boundary layer. A significant relationship is found between the mean surface fluxes during their lifetime and the longevity of the systems which in turn is related to the initial intensity of the moist updraft and to a lesser extent upper level shear. Over land, on the other hand, convective activity suppresses surface fluxes through cloud cover and the lifetime of convection is related to the upper level shear during their lifetime and strength of the heat fluxes several hours before the initiation of convection. For systems of equal lifetime, those over land are significantly more intense than those over ocean especially during early stages of their lifetime.

  6. Modeling Minority-Carrier Lifetime Techniques That Use Transient Excess-Carrier Decay: Preprint

    SciTech Connect

    Johnston, S. W.; Berman, G. M.; Ahrenkiel, R. K.

    2008-05-01

    Lifetime spectroscopy is a valuable tool for the characterization of PV materials. This paper combines modeling and experimental results to illustrate the injection-level dependent response of three transient excess-carrier decay techniques.

  7. Stratospheric lifetime ratio of CFC-11 and CFC-12 from satellite and model climatologies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hoffmann, Lars; Hoppe, Charlotte; Müller, Rolf; Dutton, Geoffrey S.; Gille, John C.; Griessbach, Sabine; Jones, Ashley; Meyer, Catrin I.; Spang, Reinhold; Volk, C. Michael; Walker, Kaley A.

    2015-04-01

    Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) play a key role in stratospheric ozone loss and are strong infrared absorbers that contribute to global warming. The stratospheric lifetimes of CFCs are a measure of their stratospheric loss rates that are needed to determine global warming and ozone depletion potentials. We applied the tracer-tracer correlation approach to zonal mean climatologies from satellite measurements and model data to assess the lifetimes of CFCl3 (CFC-11) and CF2Cl2 (CFC-12). We present new estimates of the CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio and the absolute lifetime of CFC-12, based on a reference lifetime of 52 yr for CFC-11. We analyzed climatologies from three satellite missions, the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer (ACE-FTS), the HIgh Resolution Dynamics Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), and the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS). We found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio of 0.47 ± 0.08 and a CFC-12 lifetime of 112(96 - 133) yr for ACE-FTS, a ratio of 0.46 ± 0.07 and a lifetime of 113(97 - 134) yr for HIRDLS, and a ratio of 0.46 ± 0.08 and a lifetime of 114(98 - 136) yr for MIPAS. The error-weighted, combined CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio is 0.46 ± 0.04 and the CFC-12 lifetime estimate is 113(103 - 124) yr. These results are in excellent agreement with the recent Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) reassessment, which recommends lifetimes of 52(43 - 67) yr for CFC-11 and 102(88 - 122) yr for CFC-12, respectively. Having smaller uncertainties than the results from other recent studies, our estimates can help to better constrain CFC-11 and CFC-12 lifetime recommendations in future scientific studies and assessments. Furthermore, the satellite observations were used to validate first simulation results from a new coupled model system, which integrates a Lagrangian chemistry transport model into a climate model. For the coupled EMAC/CLaMS model we found a CFC-11/CFC-12 lifetime ratio

  8. Deployment-based lifetime optimization model for homogeneous Wireless Sensor Network under retransmission.

    PubMed

    Li, Ruiying; Liu, Xiaoxi; Xie, Wei; Huang, Ning

    2014-12-10

    Sensor-deployment-based lifetime optimization is one of the most effective methods used to prolong the lifetime of Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) by reducing the distance-sensitive energy consumption. In this paper, data retransmission, a major consumption factor that is usually neglected in the previous work, is considered. For a homogeneous WSN, monitoring a circular target area with a centered base station, a sensor deployment model based on regular hexagonal grids is analyzed. To maximize the WSN lifetime, optimization models for both uniform and non-uniform deployment schemes are proposed by constraining on coverage, connectivity and success transmission rate. Based on the data transmission analysis in a data gathering cycle, the WSN lifetime in the model can be obtained through quantifying the energy consumption at each sensor location. The results of case studies show that it is meaningful to consider data retransmission in the lifetime optimization. In particular, our investigations indicate that, with the same lifetime requirement, the number of sensors needed in a non-uniform topology is much less than that in a uniform one. Finally, compared with a random scheme, simulation results further verify the advantage of our deployment model.

  9. Model evaluation of methods for estimating surface emissions and chemical lifetimes from satellite data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Foy, Benjamin; Wilkins, Joseph L.; Lu, Zifeng; Streets, David G.; Duncan, Bryan N.

    2014-12-01

    Column densities from satellite retrievals can provide valuable information for estimating emissions and chemical lifetimes objectively across the globe. To better understand the uncertainties associated with these estimates, we test four methods using simulated column densities from a point source: a box model approach, a 2D Gaussian fit, an Inverse Radius fit and an Exponentially-Modified Gaussian fit. The model results were simulated using the WRF and CAMx models for the year 2005, for a single point source outside Atlanta in Georgia, USA with specified emissions and three chemical scenarios: no chemical reactions, 12 h chemical lifetime and 1 h chemical lifetime. No other sources were included in the simulations. We find that the box model provides reliable estimates irrespective of plume speed and plume direction, if the plume speed and the chemical lifetime are known accurately. The 2D Gaussian fit was found to be sensitive to plume speed and direction, and requires omnidirectional dispersion in order to have a decent fit. However, the 2D Gaussian fit is only an approximate fit to the data, and the discrepancies mean that the results are dependent on the geographical domain used for the optimization. An Inverse Radius fit is introduced to correct this issue, which is found to provide improved emissions and lifetime estimates. The Exponentially-Modified Gaussian fit also gave improved estimates. It is however dependent on accurate plume rotation such that reported chemical lifetimes with this method could be significantly underestimated.

  10. KENO lifetimes

    SciTech Connect

    Petrie, L.; Parsons, D.K.; Spriggs, G.D.

    1997-01-30

    When performing k-eigenvalue solutions with KENO-V.a, two different prompt neutron lifetimes are estimated - a system lifetime and a neutron generation time. The meaning of these two lifetimes has been ascertained by comparing values of various neutron lifespans/lifetimes predicted by MCNP and DANTSYS based on the neutron-balance theory. The system lifetime in KENO-Va corresponds to the unweighted removal lifetime calculated by both MCNP and DANTSYS. The unweighted removal lifetime is the average time between removal events resulting from a neutron absorption or a neutron leakage. The generation time in KENO-V.a corresponds to the fission lifespan calculated by MCNP, where the fission lifespan in MCNP represents the average time for a newly born neutron to cause another fission. As such, the generation time in KENO-Va does not represent the generation time that appears in the point kinetic model. The generation time in the point kinetic model is the adjoint-weighted removal lifetime divided by k{sub eff}, which is identically equal to the adjoint-weighted neutron production rate. In small bare systems operating in the vicinity of delayed critical, the difference between the adjoint-weighted neutron generation time and the fission lifespan can be as small as a few percent. However, in reflected systems, the difference between these two quantities can be several orders of magnitude. In conclusion, the prompt neutron generation time predicted by KENO-Va corresponds to the fission lifespan of a prompt neutron in a given system. The fission lifespan is the average time from birth-to-fission and, in general, is not a good approximation for the adjoint-weighted neutron generation time that appears in the point-kinetic model.

  11. [Epidemiology of homicides in Cali, Colombia, 1993-1998: six years of a population-based model].

    PubMed

    Concha-Eastman, Alberto; Espitia, Victoria E; Espinosa, Rafael; Guerrero, Rodrigo

    2002-10-01

    the benefits of a population-based surveillance model are discussed, particularly their usefulness for identifying risk factors and the measures that can be applied to prevent and control this form of violence.

  12. New Accelerated Testing and Lifetime Modeling Methods Promise Faster Development of More Durable MEAs

    SciTech Connect

    Pierpont, D. M.; Hicks, M. T.; Turner, P. L.; Watschke, T. M.

    2005-11-01

    For the successful commercialization of fuel cell technology, it is imperative that membrane electrode assembly (MEA) durability is understood and quantified. MEA lifetimes of 40,000 hours remain a key target for stationary power applications. Since it is impractical to wait 40,000 hours for durability results, it is critical to learn as much information as possible in as short a time period as possible to determine if an MEA sample will survive past its lifetime target. Consequently, 3M has utilized accelerated testing and statistical lifetime modeling tools to develop a methodology for evaluating MEA lifetime. Construction and implementation of a multi-cell test stand have allowed for multiple accelerated tests and stronger statistical data for learning about durability.

  13. The storage lifetime model based on multi-performance degradation parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Haochun, Qi; Xiaoling, Zhang; Xuesong, Xie; Changzhi, Lü

    2014-10-01

    According to the multi-performance degradation of the bipolar transistor in the accelerating storage process, an extrapolation model of the storage lifetime is proposed. In this model, using the Wiener process simulates the mono-degradation process of each feature degradation; using the copula function describes the correlation among these feature degradations. The Wiener process and parameters in the copula function are considered to associate with the temperature, and their relationships can be represented by the converted equations. Through the maximum likelihood estimation, the parameters in the Wiener process can be found; introducing Kendall's tau, those in the copula function can be estimated. By conducting the regression analyses of the estimated values of the parameters in each stress, their corresponding converted equations can be shown. Based on the storage test data of bipolar transistors, with the estimation method, the storage lifetime is found. The findings show that the model is reasonable for the prediction of storage lifetime.

  14. The Lifetime Economic Burden of Keratoconus: A Decision Analysis Using a Markov Model

    PubMed Central

    REBENITSCH, RONALD L.; KYMES, STEVEN M.; WALLINE, JEFFREY J.; GORDON, MAE O.

    2016-01-01

    PURPOSE To estimate the expected incremental lifetime cost of treatment of keratoconus compared to the expected cost of the treatment of myopia. DESIGN Cost estimate from the patient’s perspective using a Markov decision model. METHODS We modeled a hypothetical cohort of people with clinically significant incident keratoconus as defined by the Collaborative Longitudinal Evaluation of Keratoconus (CLEK) Study. We included costs of clinic visits, fitting fees, contact lenses, surgical procedures, and complications. Survival curves of corneal transplants and associated complications were modeled using data from the 2007 Australian Graft Registry. Medical treatment regimens after surgery were defined by expert opinion. RESULTS The expected value of the lifetime cost of the treatment of keratoconus over myopia was $25 168 with a standard deviation of $16 247 and a median of $17 596. The factors that most influenced the lifetime cost were the probability of initial corneal transplant and a subsequent regraft. The cost of routine care had relatively little influence on the lifetime cost of care. CONCLUSIONS The expected lifetime cost of treatment of keratoconus represents a significant cost to patients and payors. While the cost of routine care for keratoconus is not trivial, the primary factor influencing changes in the cost of care for keratoconus is the probability of corneal transplant. Combined with the significantly impaired vision-related quality of life and the relatively young onset of disease, the economic burden of the treatment of keratoconus represents a significant public health concern. PMID:21310384

  15. Interpreting aerosol lifetimes using the GEOS-Chem model and constraints from radionuclide measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Croft, B.; Pierce, J. R.; Martin, R. V.

    2014-04-01

    Aerosol removal processes control global aerosol abundance, but the rate of that removal remains uncertain. A recent study of aerosol-bound radionuclide measurements after the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident documents 137Cs removal (e-folding) times of 10.0-13.9 days, suggesting that mean aerosol lifetimes in the range of 3-7 days in global models might be too short by a factor of two. In this study, we attribute this discrepancy to differences between the e-folding and mean aerosol lifetimes. We implement a simulation of 137Cs and 133Xe into the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and examine the removal rates for the Fukushima case. We find a general consistency between modelled and measured e-folding times. The simulated 137Cs global burden e-folding time is about 14 days. However, the simulated mean lifetime of aerosol-bound 137Cs over a 6-month post-accident period is only 1.8 days. We find that the mean lifetime depends strongly on the removal rates in the first few days after emissions, before the aerosols leave the boundary layer and are transported to altitudes and latitudes where lifetimes with respect to wet removal are longer by a few orders of magnitude. We present sensitivity simulations that demonstrate the influence of differences in altitude and location of the radionuclides on the mean lifetime. Global mean lifetimes are shown to strongly depend on the altitude of injection. The global mean 137Cs lifetime is more than one order of magnitude greater for the injection at 7 km than into the boundary layer above the Fukushima site. Instantaneous removal rates are slower during the first few days after the emissions for a free tropospheric versus boundary layer injection and this strongly controls the mean lifetimes. Global mean aerosol lifetimes for the GEOS-Chem model are 3-6 days, which is longer than that for the 137Cs injected at the Fukushima site (likely due to precipitation shortly after Fukushima emissions), but similar to the

  16. Maternal lifetime history of depression and depressive symptoms in the prenatal and early postnatal period do not predict infant-mother attachment quality in a large, population-based Dutch cohort study.

    PubMed

    Tharner, Anne; Luijk, Maartje P C M; van Ijzendoorn, Marinus H; Bakermans-Kranenburg, Marian J; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Hofman, Albert; Verhulst, Frank C; Tiemeier, Henning

    2012-01-01

    We examined the effects of maternal history of depressive disorder and the effects of depressive symptoms during pregnancy and the early postpartum period on attachment insecurity and disorganization. A total of 627 mother-infant dyads from the Generation R Study participated in a population-based cohort from fetal life onwards. Maternal history of depression was assessed by diagnostic interviews during pregnancy; maternal peri- and postnatal depressive symptoms were assessed with questionnaires in 506 of these women at 20 weeks pregnancy and two months postpartum; and infant-mother attachment security was observed when infants were aged 14 months. A history of maternal depressive disorder, regardless of severity or psychiatric comorbidity, was not associated with an increased risk of infant attachment insecurity or disorganization. Likewise, maternal peri- and postnatal depressive symptoms were not related to attachment insecurity or disorganization at 14 months. These results are important because mothers from otherwise low risk backgrounds often have previously been depressed or are struggling with non-clinical depressive symptoms during pregnancy and after giving birth. Our findings are discussed in terms of protective factors that may limit the potentially negative effects of maternal depressive symptoms on the infant-mother attachment relationship in the general population. The role of selective attrition and lack of information about the mothers' attachment status for the current null-findings are also discussed.

  17. Strongest model-independent bound on the lifetime of Dark Matter

    SciTech Connect

    Audren, Benjamin; Lesgourgues, Julien; Tram, Thomas; Mangano, Gianpiero; Serpico, Pasquale Dario E-mail: Julien.Lesgourgues@cern.ch E-mail: serpico@lapth.cnrs.fr

    2014-12-01

    Dark Matter is essential for structure formation in the late Universe so it must be stable on cosmological time scales. But how stable exactly? Only assuming decays into relativistic particles, we report an otherwise model independent bound on the lifetime of Dark Matter using current cosmological data. Since these decays affect only the low ℓ multipoles of the CMB, the Dark Matter lifetime is expected to correlate with the tensor-to-scalar ratio r as well as the curvature Ω{sub k}. We consider two models, including r and r+Ω{sub k} respectively, versus data from Planck, WMAP, WiggleZ and Baryon Acoustic Oscillations, with or without the BICEP2 data (if interpreted in terms of primordial gravitational waves). This results in a lower bound on the lifetime of CDM given by 160 Gyr (without BICEP2) or 200 Gyr (with BICEP2) at 95% confidence level.

  18. Semiautomatic bladder segmentation on CBCT using a population-based model for multiple-plan ART of bladder cancer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chai, Xiangfei; van Herk, Marcel; Betgen, Anja; Hulshof, Maarten; Bel, Arjan

    2012-12-01

    The aim of this study is to develop a novel semiautomatic bladder segmentation approach for selecting the appropriate plan from the library of plans for a multiple-plan adaptive radiotherapy (ART) procedure. A population-based statistical bladder model was first built from a training data set (95 bladder contours from 8 patients). This model was then used as constraint to segment the bladder in an independent validation data set (233 CBCT scans from the remaining 22 patients). All 3D bladder contours were converted into parametric surface representations using spherical harmonic expansion. Principal component analysis (PCA) was applied in the spherical harmonic-based shape parameter space to calculate the major variation of bladder shapes. The number of dominating PCA modes was chosen such that 95% of the total shape variation of the training data set was described. The automatic segmentation started from the bladder contour of the planning CT of each patient, which was modified by changing the weight of each PCA mode. As a result, the segmentation contour was deformed consistently with the training set to best fit the bladder boundary in the localization CBCT image. A cost function was defined to measure the goodness of fit of the segmentation on the localization CBCT image. The segmentation was obtained by minimizing this cost function using a simplex optimizer. After automatic segmentation, a fast manual correction method was provided to correct those bladders (parts) that were poorly segmented. Volume- and distance-based metrics and the accuracy of plan selection from multiple plans were evaluated to quantify the performance of the automatic and semiautomatic segmentation methods. For the training data set, only seven PCA modes were needed to represent 95% of the bladder shape variation. The mean CI overlap and residual error (SD) of automatic bladder segmentation over all of the validation data were 70.5% and 0.39 cm, respectively. The agreement of plan

  19. Lifetime prediction modeling of airfoils for advanced power generation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karaivanov, Ventzislav Gueorguiev

    The use of gases produced from coal as a turbine fuel offers an attractive means for efficiently generating electric power from our Nation's most abundant fossil fuel resource. The oxy-fuel and hydrogen-fired turbine concepts promise increased efficiency and low emissions on the expense of increased turbine inlet temperature (TIT) and different working fluid. Developing the turbine technology and materials is critical to the creation of these near-zero emission power generation technologies. A computational methodology, based on three-dimensional finite element analysis (FEA) and damage mechanics is presented for predicting the evolution of creep and fatigue in airfoils. We took a first look at airfoil thermal distributions in these advanced turbine systems based on CFD analysis. The damage mechanics-based creep and fatigue models were implemented as user modified routine in commercial package ANSYS. This routine was used to visualize the creep and fatigue damage evolution over airfoils for hydrogen-fired and oxy-fuel turbines concepts, and regions most susceptible to failure were indentified. Model allows for interaction between creep and fatigue damage thus damage due to fatigue and creep processes acting separately in one cycle will affect both the fatigue and creep damage rates in the next cycle. Simulation results were presented for various thermal conductivity of the top coat. Surface maps were created on the airfoil showing the development of the TGO scale and the Al depletion of the bond coat. In conjunction with model development, laboratory-scale experimental validation was executed to evaluate the influence of operational compressive stress levels on the performance of the TBC system. TBC coated single crystal coupons were exposed isothermally in air at 900, 1000, 1100oC with and without compressive load. Exposed samples were cross-sectioned and evaluated with scanning electron microscope (SEM). Performance data was collected based on image analysis

  20. Lifetime prediction for the subsurface crack propagation using three-dimensional dynamic FEA model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yin, Yuan; Chen, Yun-Xia; Liu, Le

    2017-03-01

    The subsurface crack propagation is one of the major interests for gear system research. The subsurface crack propagation lifetime is the number of cycles remaining for a spall to appear, which can be obtained through either stress intensity factor or accumulated plastic strain analysis. In this paper, the heavy loads are applied to the gear system. When choosing stress intensity factor, the high compressive stress suppresses Mode I stress intensities and severely reduces Mode II stress intensities in the heavily loaded lubricated contacts. Such that, the accumulated plastic strain is selected to calculate the subsurface crack propagation lifetime from the three-dimensional FEA model through ANSYS Workbench transient analysis. The three-dimensional gear FEA dynamic model with the subsurface crack is built through dividing the gears into several small elements. The calculation of the total cycles of the elements is proposed based on the time-varying accumulated plastic strain, which then will be used to calculate the subsurface crack propagation lifetime. During this process, the demonstration from a subsurface crack to a spall can be uncovered. In addition, different sizes of the elements around the subsurface crack are compared in this paper. The influences of the frictional coefficient and external torque on the crack propagation lifetime are also discussed. The results show that the lifetime of crack propagation decreases significantly when the external load T increasing from 100 N m to 150 N m. Given from the distributions of the accumulated plastic strain, the lifetime shares no significant difference when the frictional coefficient f ranging in 0.04-0.06.

  1. Comparison of Accelerated Testing with Modeling to Predict Lifetime of CPV Solder Layers (Presentation)

    SciTech Connect

    Silverman, T. J.; Bosco, N.; Kurtz, S.

    2012-03-01

    Concentrating photovoltaic (CPV) cell assemblies can fail due to thermomechanical fatigue in the die-attach layer. In this presentation, we show the latest results from our computational model of thermomechanical fatigue. The model is used to estimate the relative lifetime of cell assemblies exposed to various temperature histories consistent with service and with accelerated testing. We also present early results from thermal cycling experiments designed to help validate the computational model.

  2. A generic model for creep rupture lifetime estimation on fibrous ceramic composites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chuang, Tze-Jer

    1992-01-01

    Because of their high strength and toughness at elevated temperatures, fiber reinforced ceramic composites such as SiC(f)/SiC and SiC(f)/Si3N4 have become candidates for next-generation turbine engine materials. A generic model is proposed for assessing the lifetime of this class of materials when subjected to long-term creep rupture conditions. This 2D model consists of interfacial cracks growing between square grains and rectangular fibers in the direction normal to the principal tensile stress axis. Neglecting transient effects, the total lifetime is derived based on the criterion that rupture is due to coalescence of adjacent cracks. Lifetime is inversely proportional to crack growth rate, volume fraction, and aspect ratio of the fibers; but extremely sensitive to the applied stress, due to the high power of the V-K(I) law. This lifetime estimation seems to be in fair agreement with the creep rupture data of SiC(w)/Si3N4 composite with 0 and 30 vol percent reinforcement tested at 1250 C in air. TEM performed on the postcrept specimens revealed that creep damage is predominantly in the form of microcracks at matrix/matrix as well as fiber/matrix interfaces, approximately in accord with the model simulation.

  3. Application of genetically altered models as replacement for the lifetime mouse bioassay in pharmaceutical development.

    PubMed

    Alden, Carl; Smith, Peter; Morton, Dan

    2002-01-01

    The international pharmaceutical regulatory academic and industrial toxicology communities are collaborating to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of cancer hazard identification based on dramatic improvements in our understanding of the cancer process. Guidelines emanating from the International Conference on Harmonization provide for use of in vivo alternatives. Standard practices utilizing lifetime rat and mouse studies are recognized as seriously flawed with over 80% false positive rates. Furthermore, tobacco, the most important human carcinogen commercialized by industry, is negative in these traditional lifetime studies. The lifetime mouse bioassay is generally recognized in pharmaceutical development as not adding value in safety assessment. An international consortium under the aegis of ILSI has recently completed an evaluation of alternative mouse cancer models. Transgenic models are less expensive, use fewer animals and take less time than traditional lifetime bioassays. These alternative models have now been sufficiently evaluated to be considered useful in the safety assessment plan for pharmaceuticals in development. Specifically for example, the rasH2 appears useful in detecting nongenotoxic as well as genotoxic rodent tumorigens with improved concordance with human response. The p53+/- heterozygous mouse apparently identifies hormonal carcinogenic mechanisms, immunosuppressive carcinogens, and genotoxic carcinogens. The TG:AC predicts for rodent tumorigens applied topically. Recent experiences at FDA, CPMP, and MHW indicate that with good planning and agency interactions, regulatory acceptability can be anticipated.

  4. Population-based local search for protein folding simulation in the MJ energy model and cubic lattices.

    PubMed

    Kapsokalivas, L; Gan, X; Albrecht, A A; Steinhöfel, K

    2009-08-01

    We present experimental results on benchmark problems in 3D cubic lattice structures with the Miyazawa-Jernigan energy function for two local search procedures that utilise the pull-move set: (i) population-based local search (PLS) that traverses the energy landscape with greedy steps towards (potential) local minima followed by upward steps up to a certain level of the objective function; (ii) simulated annealing with a logarithmic cooling schedule (LSA). The parameter settings for PLS are derived from short LSA-runs executed in pre-processing and the procedure utilises tabu lists generated for each member of the population. In terms of the total number of energy function evaluations both methods perform equally well, however, PLS has the potential of being parallelised with an expected speed-up in the region of the population size. Furthermore, both methods require a significant smaller number of function evaluations when compared to Monte Carlo simulations with kink-jump moves.

  5. Bilayer Suspension Plasma-Sprayed Thermal Barrier Coatings with Enhanced Thermal Cyclic Lifetime: Experiments and Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Mohit; Kumara, Chamara; Nylén, Per

    2017-08-01

    Suspension plasma spraying (SPS) has been shown as a promising process to produce porous columnar strain tolerant coatings for thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) in gas turbine engines. However, the highly porous structure is vulnerable to crack propagation, especially near the topcoat-bondcoat interface where high stresses are generated due to thermal cycling. A topcoat layer with high toughness near the topcoat-bondcoat interface could be beneficial to enhance thermal cyclic lifetime of SPS TBCs. In this work, a bilayer coating system consisting of first a dense layer near the topcoat-bondcoat interface followed by a porous columnar layer was fabricated by SPS using Yttria-stabilised zirconia suspension. The objective of this work was to investigate if the bilayer topcoat architecture could enhance the thermal cyclic lifetime of SPS TBCs through experiments and to understand the effect of the column gaps/vertical cracks and the dense layer on the generated stresses in the TBC during thermal cyclic loading through finite element modeling. The experimental results show that the bilayer TBC had significantly higher lifetime than the single-layer TBC. The modeling results show that the dense layer and vertical cracks are beneficial as they reduce the thermally induced stresses which thus increase the lifetime.

  6. Bilayer Suspension Plasma-Sprayed Thermal Barrier Coatings with Enhanced Thermal Cyclic Lifetime: Experiments and Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Mohit; Kumara, Chamara; Nylén, Per

    2017-07-01

    Suspension plasma spraying (SPS) has been shown as a promising process to produce porous columnar strain tolerant coatings for thermal barrier coatings (TBCs) in gas turbine engines. However, the highly porous structure is vulnerable to crack propagation, especially near the topcoat-bondcoat interface where high stresses are generated due to thermal cycling. A topcoat layer with high toughness near the topcoat-bondcoat interface could be beneficial to enhance thermal cyclic lifetime of SPS TBCs. In this work, a bilayer coating system consisting of first a dense layer near the topcoat-bondcoat interface followed by a porous columnar layer was fabricated by SPS using Yttria-stabilised zirconia suspension. The objective of this work was to investigate if the bilayer topcoat architecture could enhance the thermal cyclic lifetime of SPS TBCs through experiments and to understand the effect of the column gaps/vertical cracks and the dense layer on the generated stresses in the TBC during thermal cyclic loading through finite element modeling. The experimental results show that the bilayer TBC had significantly higher lifetime than the single-layer TBC. The modeling results show that the dense layer and vertical cracks are beneficial as they reduce the thermally induced stresses which thus increase the lifetime.

  7. Lifetime growth in wild meerkats: incorporating life history and environmental factors into a standard growth model.

    PubMed

    English, Sinéad; Bateman, Andrew W; Clutton-Brock, Tim H

    2012-05-01

    Lifetime records of changes in individual size or mass in wild animals are scarce and, as such, few studies have attempted to model variation in these traits across the lifespan or to assess the factors that affect them. However, quantifying lifetime growth is essential for understanding trade-offs between growth and other life history parameters, such as reproductive performance or survival. Here, we used model selection based on information theory to measure changes in body mass over the lifespan of wild meerkats, and compared the relative fits of several standard growth models (monomolecular, von Bertalanffy, Gompertz, logistic and Richards). We found that meerkats exhibit monomolecular growth, with the best model incorporating separate growth rates before and after nutritional independence, as well as effects of season and total rainfall in the previous nine months. Our study demonstrates how simple growth curves may be improved by considering life history and environmental factors, which may be particularly relevant when quantifying growth patterns in wild populations.

  8. Quasars Are Not Light Bulbs: Testing Models of Quasar Lifetimes with the Observed Eddington Ratio Distribution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hopkins, Philip F.; Hernquist, Lars

    2009-06-01

    We use the observed distribution of Eddington ratios as a function of supermassive black hole (BH) mass to constrain models of quasar/active galactic nucleus (AGN) lifetimes and light curves. Given the observed (well constrained) AGN luminosity function, a particular model for AGN light curves L(t) or, equivalently, the distribution of AGN lifetimes (time above a given luminosity t(>L)) translates directly and uniquely (without further assumptions) to a predicted distribution of Eddington ratios at each BH mass. Models for self-regulated BH growth, in which feedback produces a self-regulating "decay" or "blowout" phase after the AGN reaches some peak luminosity/BH mass and begins to expel gas and shut down accretion, make specific predictions for the light curves/lifetimes, distinct from, e.g., the expected distribution if AGN simply shut down by gas starvation (without feedback) and very different from the prediction of simple phenomenological "light bulb" scenarios. We show that the present observations of the Eddington ratio distribution, spanning nearly 5 orders of magnitude in Eddington ratio, 3 orders of magnitude in BH mass, and redshifts z = 0-1, agree well with the predictions of self-regulated models, and rule out phenomenological "light bulb" or pure exponential models, as well as gas starvation models, at high significance (~5σ). We also compare with observations of the distribution of Eddington ratios at a given AGN luminosity, and find similar good agreement (but show that these observations are much less constraining). We fit the functional form of the quasar lifetime distribution and provide these fits for use, and show how the Eddington ratio distributions place precise, tight limits on the AGN lifetimes at various luminosities, in agreement with model predictions. We compare with independent estimates of episodic lifetimes and use this to constrain the shape of the typical AGN light curve, and provide simple analytic fits to these for use in

  9. Parametric estimation of quality adjusted lifetime (QAL) distribution in progressive illness--death model.

    PubMed

    Pradhan, Biswabrata; Dewanji, Anup

    2009-07-10

    In this work, we consider the parametric estimation of quality adjusted lifetime (QAL) distribution in progressive illness-death models. The main idea of this paper is to derive the theoretical distribution of QAL for the progressive illness-death models, under parametric models for the sojourn time distributions in different states, and then replace the model parameters by their estimates obtained by standard techniques of survival analysis. The method of estimation of the model parameters is also described. A data set of IBCSG Trial V has been analyzed for illustration. Extension to more general illness-death models is also discussed.

  10. Estimating the lifetime cost of childhood obesity in Germany: Results of a Markov Model.

    PubMed

    Sonntag, D; Ali, S; Lehnert, T; Konnopka, A; Riedel-Heller, S; König, H-H

    2015-12-01

    Child obesity is a growing public health concern. Excess weight in childhood is known to be associated with a high risk of obesity and obesity-related comorbidities in adulthood. This study quantifies lifetime excess costs of overweight and obese adults in Germany taking the history of obesity in childhood into account. A two-stage Markov cohort state transition model was developed. At stage 1, the distribution of body mass index (BMI) categories was tracked from childhood (ages 3-17) to adulthood (age 17 and up). Based on these results, it was distinguished whether adults had been normal in weight or overweight/obese as child. At stage 2, age-specific and lifetime costs from age 18 onwards were simulated in two further Markov cohort models, one for each of the two BMI groups. Model parameter values were obtained from the German Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS), the German Microcensus 2009 and published literature. When compared with normal weight adults, lifetime excess costs are higher among adults who had been overweight or obese at any point during childhood. For 18-year-old women (men), who have been overweight/obese during their childhood (ages 3-17), undiscounted lifetime excess costs are estimated at €19,479 (€14,524), with 60% (67%) occurring beyond age 60. Discounted (3%) lifetime excess costs are considerably lower, amounting to €4262 for men and €7028 for women. Because childhood obesity determines healthcare costs occurring in adulthood, interventions preventing the persistence of child obesity and obesity-related comorbidities during adulthood could have a substantial impact on reducing the burden of the obesity epidemic. © 2015 World Obesity.

  11. Neutrino mass and proton lifetime in a realistic supersymmetric SO(10) model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Severson, Matthew

    This work presents a complete analysis of fermion fitting and proton decay in a supersymmetric SO(10) model previously suggested by Dutta, Mimura, and Mohapatra. A key question in any grand unified theory is whether it satisfies the stringent experimental lower limits on the partial lifetimes of the proton. In more generic models, substantial fine-tuning is required among GUT-scale parameters to satisfy the limits. In the proposed model, the 10, 1¯2¯6¯, and 20 Yukawa couplings contributing to fermion masses have restricted textures intended to give favorable results for proton lifetime, while still giving rise to a realistic fermion sector, without the need for fine-tuning, even for large beta, and for either type-I or type-II dominance in the neutrino mass matrix. In this thesis, I investigate the above hypothesis at a strict numerical level of scrutiny; I obtain a valid fit for the entire fermion sector for both types of seesaw dominance, including theta13 in good agreement with the most recent data. For the case with type-II seesaw, I find that, using the Yukawa couplings fixed by the successful fermion sector fit, proton partial lifetime limits are readily satisfied for all but one of the pertinent decay modes for nearly arbitrary values of the triplet-Higgs mixing parameters, with the K+v¯ mode requiring a minor ∂(10--1) cancellation in order to satisfy its limit. I also find a maximum partial lifetime for that mode of τ( K+v¯) ˜ 1036,years. For the type-I seesaw case, I find that K+ v¯ decay mode is satisfied for any values of the triplet mixing parameters giving no major enhancement, and all other modes are easily satisfied for arbitrary mixing values; I also find a maximum partial lifetime for K+v¯ of nearly 1036years, which is largely sub-dominant to gauge boson decay channels.

  12. Resolving Nuclear Reactor Lifetime Extension Questions: A Combined Multiscale Modeling and Positron Characterization approach

    SciTech Connect

    Wirth, B; Asoka-Kumar, P; Denison, A; Glade, S; Howell, R; Marian, J; Odette, G; Sterne, P

    2004-04-06

    The objective of this work is to determine the chemical composition of nanometer precipitates responsible for irradiation hardening and embrittlement of reactor pressure vessel steels, which threaten to limit the operating lifetime of nuclear power plants worldwide. The scientific approach incorporates computational multiscale modeling of radiation damage and microstructural evolution in Fe-Cu-Ni-Mn alloys, and experimental characterization by positron annihilation spectroscopy and small angle neutron scattering. The modeling and experimental results are

  13. Predicting the breakdown strength and lifetime of nanocomposites using a multi-scale modeling approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Yanhui; Zhao, He; Wang, Yixing; Ratcliff, Tyree; Breneman, Curt; Catherine Brinson, L.; Chen, Wei; Schadler, Linda S.

    2017-08-01

    It has been found that doping dielectric polymers with a small amount of nanofiller or molecular additive can stabilize the material under a high field and lead to increased breakdown strength and lifetime. Choosing appropriate fillers is critical to optimizing the material performance, but current research largely relies on experimental trial and error. The employment of computer simulations for nanodielectric design is rarely reported. In this work, we propose a multi-scale modeling approach that employs ab initio, Monte Carlo, and continuum scales to predict the breakdown strength and lifetime of polymer nanocomposites based on the charge trapping effect of the nanofillers. The charge transfer, charge energy relaxation, and space charge effects are modeled in respective hierarchical scales by distinctive simulation techniques, and these models are connected together for high fidelity and robustness. The preliminary results show good agreement with the experimental data, suggesting its promise for use in the computer aided material design of high performance dielectrics.

  14. Beyond R0: Demographic Models for Variability of Lifetime Reproductive Output

    PubMed Central

    Caswell, Hal

    2011-01-01

    The net reproductive rate measures the expected lifetime reproductive output of an individual, and plays an important role in demography, ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. Well-established methods exist to calculate it from age- or stage-classified demographic data. As an expectation, provides no information on variability; empirical measurements of lifetime reproduction universally show high levels of variability, and often positive skewness among individuals. This is often interpreted as evidence of heterogeneity, and thus of an opportunity for natural selection. However, variability provides evidence of heterogeneity only if it exceeds the level of variability to be expected in a cohort of identical individuals all experiencing the same vital rates. Such comparisons require a way to calculate the statistics of lifetime reproduction from demographic data. Here, a new approach is presented, using the theory of Markov chains with rewards, obtaining all the moments of the distribution of lifetime reproduction. The approach applies to age- or stage-classified models, to constant, periodic, or stochastic environments, and to any kind of reproductive schedule. As examples, I analyze data from six empirical studies, of a variety of animal and plant taxa (nematodes, polychaetes, humans, and several species of perennial plants). PMID:21738586

  15. Phase of care prevalence for prostate cancer in New South Wales, Australia: A population-based modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Qingwei; Smith, David P.; Clements, Mark S.; Patel, Manish I.; O’Connell, Dianne L.

    2017-01-01

    Objective To develop a method for estimating the future numbers of prostate cancer survivors requiring different levels of care. Design, setting and participants Analysis of population-based cancer registry data for prostate cancer cases (aged 18–84 years) diagnosed in 1996–2007, and a linked dataset with hospital admission data for men with prostate cancer diagnosed during 2005–2007 in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Methods Cancer registry data (1996–2007) were used to project complete prostate cancer prevalence in NSW, Australia for 2008–2017, and treatment information from hospital records (2005–2007) was used to estimate the inpatient care needs during the first year after diagnosis. The projected complete prevalence was divided into care needs-based groups. We first divided the cohort into two groups based on patient’s age (<75 and 75–84 years). The younger cohort was further divided into initial care and monitoring phases. Cause of death data were used as a proxy for patients requiring last year of life prostate cancer care. Finally, episode data were used to estimate the future number of cases with metastatic progression. Results Of the estimated total of 60,910 men with a previous diagnosis of prostate cancer in 2017, the largest groups will be older patients (52.0%) and younger men who require monitoring (42.5%). If current treatment patterns continue, in the first year post-diagnosis 41% (1380) of patients (<75 years) will have a radical prostatectomy, and 52.6% (1752) will be likely to have either active surveillance, external beam radiotherapy or androgen deprivation therapy. About 3% will require care for subsequent metastases, and 1288 men with prostate cancer are likely to die from the disease in 2017. Conclusions This method extends the application of routinely collected population-based data, and can contribute much to the knowledge of the number of men with prostate cancer and their health care requirements. This could be of

  16. Lifetime measurements in 71Ge and a new interacting boson-fermion model interpretation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ivaşcu, M.; Mărginean, N.; Bucurescu, D.; Căta-Danil, I.; Ur, C. A.; Lobach, Yu. N.

    1999-08-01

    The lifetimes of twelve low spin excited states have been measured in 71Ge using the Doppler shift attenuation method in the 71Ga(p,nγ) reaction at 3.0 and 3.5 MeV incident energy. New interacting boson-fermion model calculations for this nucleus account well for the properties of all its levels known up to about 1.5 MeV excitation.

  17. Evaluation of observed and modelled aerosol lifetimes using radioactive tracers of opportunity and an ensemble of 19 global models

    SciTech Connect

    Kristiansen, N. I.; Stohl, A.; Olivie, D. J. L.; Croft, B.; Sovde, O. A.; Klein, H.; Christoudias, T.; Kunkel, D.; Leadbetter, S. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Zhang, K.; Tsigaridis, K.; Bergman, T.; Evangeliou, N.; Wang, H.; Ma, P. -L.; Easter, R. C.; Rasch, P. J.; Liu, X.; Pitari, G.; Di Genova, G.; Zhao, S. Y.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S. E.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Kokkola, H.; Martin, R. V.; Pierce, J. R.; Schulz, M.; Shindell, D.; Tost, H.; Zhang, H.

    2016-03-17

    Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 (137Cs) and xenon-133 (133Xe) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to their available aerosol surface area. 137Cs size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation-mode (AM) sulfate aerosols were the main carriers of cesium. Hence, 137Cs can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulfate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas 133Xe behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of 137Cs that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulfate, and 133Xe emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulfate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled 137Cs and 133Xe concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime

  18. Evaluation of Observed and Modelled Aerosol Lifetimes Using Radioactive Tracers of Opportunity and an Ensemble of 19 Global Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kristiansen, N. I.; Stohl, A.; Olivie, D. J. L.; Croft, B.; Sovde, O. A.; Klein, H.; Christoudias, T.; Kunkel, D.; Leadbetter, S. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Zhang, K.; Tsigaridis, K.; Bauer, S. E.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Shindell, D.

    2016-01-01

    Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 (Cs-137) and xenon-133 (Xe-133) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to their available aerosol surface area. Cs-137 size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation mode (AM) sulfate aerosols were the main carriers of cesium. Hence, Cs-137 can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulfate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas Xe-133 behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of Cs-137that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulfate, and Xe-133 emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulfate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled Cs-137and Xe-133 concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime e, calculated from station measurement data taken between 2 and 9 weeks after the start of the emissions, is 14.3 days (95

  19. Evaluation of observed and modelled aerosol lifetimes using radioactive tracers of opportunity and an ensemble of 19 global models

    DOE PAGES

    Kristiansen, N. I.; Stohl, A.; Olivie, D. J. L.; ...

    2016-03-17

    Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 (137Cs) and xenon-133 (133Xe) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to their available aerosolmore » surface area. 137Cs size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation-mode (AM) sulfate aerosols were the main carriers of cesium. Hence, 137Cs can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulfate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas 133Xe behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of 137Cs that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulfate, and 133Xe emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulfate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled 137Cs and 133Xe concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime τe, calculated from station measurement data taken between 2 and 9 weeks after the start of the emissions, is 14.3 days (95

  20. Evaluation of observed and modelled aerosol lifetimes using radioactive tracers of opportunity and an ensemble of 19 global models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kristiansen, N. I.; Stohl, A.; Olivié, D. J. L.; Croft, B.; Søvde, O. A.; Klein, H.; Christoudias, T.; Kunkel, D.; Leadbetter, S. J.; Lee, Y. H.; Zhang, K.; Tsigaridis, K.; Bergman, T.; Evangeliou, N.; Wang, H.; Ma, P.-L.; Easter, R. C.; Rasch, P. J.; Liu, X.; Pitari, G.; Di Genova, G.; Zhao, S. Y.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S. E.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Kokkola, H.; Martin, R. V.; Pierce, J. R.; Schulz, M.; Shindell, D.; Tost, H.; Zhang, H.

    2016-03-01

    Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 (137Cs) and xenon-133 (133Xe) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to their available aerosol surface area. 137Cs size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation-mode (AM) sulfate aerosols were the main carriers of cesium. Hence, 137Cs can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulfate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas 133Xe behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of 137Cs that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulfate, and 133Xe emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulfate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled 137Cs and 133Xe concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime τe, calculated from station measurement data taken between 2 and 9 weeks after the start of the emissions, is 14.3 days (95

  1. Evaluation of Observed and Modelled Aerosol Lifetimes Using Radioactive Tracers of Opportunity and an Ensemble of 19 Global Models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kristiansen, N. I.; Stohl, A.; Olivie, D. J. L.; Croft, B.; Sovde, O. A.; Klein, H.; Christoudias, T.; Kunkel, D.; Leadbetter, S. J.; Lee, Y. H.; hide

    2016-01-01

    Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 (Cs-137) and xenon-133 (Xe-133) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to their available aerosol surface area. Cs-137 size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation mode (AM) sulfate aerosols were the main carriers of cesium. Hence, Cs-137 can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulfate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas Xe-133 behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of Cs-137that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulfate, and Xe-133 emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulfate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled Cs-137and Xe-133 concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime e, calculated from station measurement data taken between 2 and 9 weeks after the start of the emissions, is 14.3 days (95

  2. A new lifetime estimation model for a quicker LED reliability prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamon, B. H.; Mendizabal, L.; Feuillet, G.; Gasse, A.; Bataillou, B.

    2014-09-01

    LED reliability and lifetime prediction is a key point for Solid State Lighting adoption. For this purpose, one hundred and fifty LEDs have been aged for a reliability analysis. LEDs have been grouped following nine current-temperature stress conditions. Stress driving current was fixed between 350mA and 1A and ambient temperature between 85C and 120°C. Using integrating sphere and I(V) measurements, a cross study of the evolution of electrical and optical characteristics has been done. Results show two main failure mechanisms regarding lumen maintenance. The first one is the typically observed lumen depreciation and the second one is a much more quicker depreciation related to an increase of the leakage and non radiative currents. Models of the typical lumen depreciation and leakage resistance depreciation have been made using electrical and optical measurements during the aging tests. The combination of those models allows a new method toward a quicker LED lifetime prediction. These two models have been used for lifetime predictions for LEDs.

  3. Studies on Mathematical Models of Wet Adhesion and Lifetime Prediction of Organic Coating/Steel by Grey System Theory

    PubMed Central

    Meng, Fandi; Liu, Ying; Liu, Li; Li, Ying; Wang, Fuhui

    2017-01-01

    A rapid degradation of wet adhesion is the key factor controlling coating lifetime, for the organic coatings under marine hydrostatic pressure. The mathematical models of wet adhesion have been studied by Grey System Theory (GST). Grey models (GM) (1, 1) of epoxy varnish (EV) coating/steel and epoxy glass flake (EGF) coating/steel have been established, and a lifetime prediction formula has been proposed on the basis of these models. The precision assessments indicate that the established models are accurate, and the prediction formula is capable of making precise lifetime forecasting of the coatings. PMID:28773073

  4. Forecasting of electronic devices lifetime on the basis of activation models of functional parameters drift

    SciTech Connect

    Kozlova, I. N.

    2016-04-13

    We propose a model of functional parameters drift for electronic devices, allowing predicting their lifetime. The method of model parameters estimation is developed. The developed model allows optimizing the accelerated tests modes, taking into account the complex impact of stress factors. The results are applicable for modern electronic devices with a failure rate less than 1 FIT. The results are applicable if the physical and chemical processes leading to electronic devices degradation have an activation mechanism; the activation process is due to the temperature.

  5. Lifetime of Cosmic-Ray Muons and the Standard Model of Fundamental Particles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukherji, Sahansha; Shevde, Yash; Majewski, Walerian

    2015-04-01

    Muon is one of the twelve fundamental particles of matter, having the longest free-particle lifetime. It decays into three other leptons through an exchange of the weak vector bosons W+/W-. Muons are present in the secondary cosmic ray showers in the atmosphere, reaching the sea level. By detecting time delay between arrival of the muon and an appearance of the decay electron in our single scintillation detector (donated by the Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility, Newport News, VA), we measured muon's lifetime at rest. It compares well with the value predicted by the Standard Model of Particles. From the lifetime we were able to calculate the ratio gw /MW of the weak coupling constant gw (an analog of the electric charge) to the mass of the W-boson MW. Using further Standard Model relations and an experimental value for MW, we calculated the weak coupling constant, the electric charge of the muon, and the vacuum expectation value of the Higgs field. We determined the sea-level flux of cosmic muons.

  6. Regional differences in population-based cancer survival between six prefectures in Japan: application of relative survival models with funnel plots.

    PubMed

    Ito, Yuri; Ioka, Akiko; Tsukuma, Hideaki; Ajiki, Wakiko; Sugimoto, Tomoyuki; Rachet, Bernard; Coleman, Michel P

    2009-07-01

    We used new methods to examine differences in population-based cancer survival between six prefectures in Japan, after adjustment for age and stage at diagnosis. We applied regression models for relative survival to data from population-based cancer registries covering each prefecture for patients diagnosed with stomach, lung, or breast cancer during 1993-1996. Funnel plots were used to display the excess hazard ratio (EHR) for each prefecture, defined as the excess hazard of death from each cancer within 5 years of diagnosis relative to the mean excess hazard (in excess of national background mortality by age and sex) in all six prefectures combined. The contribution of age and stage to the EHR in each prefecture was assessed from differences in deviance-based R(2) between the various models. No significant differences were seen between prefectures in 5-year survival from breast cancer. For cancers of the stomach and lung, EHR in Osaka prefecture were above the upper 95% control limits. For stomach cancer, the age- and stage-adjusted EHR in Osaka were 1.29 for men and 1.43 for women, compared with Fukui and Yamagata. Differences in the stage at diagnosis of stomach cancer appeared to explain most of this excess hazard (61.3% for men, 56.8% for women), whereas differences in age at diagnosis explained very little (0.8%, 1.3%). This approach offers the potential to quantify the impact of differences in stage at diagnosis on time trends and regional differences in cancer survival. It underlines the utility of population-based cancer registries for improving cancer control.

  7. Neutrino sector and proton lifetime in a realistic SUSY S O (10 ) model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Severson, Matthew

    2015-11-01

    In this work I present a complete analysis of proton decay in an S O (10 ) model previously proposed by Dutta, Mimura, and Mohapatra. The 10 , 126 ¯ , and 120 Yukawa couplings contributing to fermion masses in this model have well-motivated restrictions on their textures intended to give favorable results for proton lifetime as well as a realistic fermion sector without the need for fine-tuning and for either type-I or type-II dominance in the neutrino mass matrix. I obtain a valid fit for the entire fermion sector for both types of seesaw dominance, including θ13 in good agreement with the most recent data. For the case with type-II seesaw, I find that using the Yukawa couplings fixed by the successful fermion sector fit, proton partial lifetime limits are satisfied for nearly every pertinent decay mode, even for nearly arbitrary values of the triplet Higgs mixing parameters, with only the K+ν ¯ mode requiring a minor O (1 0-1) cancellation in order to satisfy the experimental limit. I also find a maximum lifetime for that mode of τ (K+ν ¯ )˜1036 yr , which should be tested by forthcoming experiments. For the type-I seesaw case, I find that all six pertinent decay modes of interest are satisfied for values of the triplet mixing parameters giving no major enhancement, with modes other than K+ν ¯ easily satisfied for arbitrary mixing values, and with a maximum lifetime for K+ν ¯ of nearly 1038 yr .

  8. Study of behavior and determination of customer lifetime value(CLV) using Markov chain model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Permana, Dony; Indratno, Sapto Wahyu; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.

    2014-03-01

    Customer Lifetime Value or CLV is a restriction on interactive marketing to help a company in arranging financial for the marketing of new customer acquisition and customer retention. Additionally CLV can be able to segment customers for financial arrangements. Stochastic models for the fairly new CLV used a Markov chain. In this model customer retention probability and new customer acquisition probability play an important role. This model is originally introduced by Pfeifer and Carraway in 2000 [1]. They introduced several CLV models, one of them only involves customer and former customer. In this paper we expand the model by adding the assumption of the transition from former customer to customer. In the proposed model, the CLV value is higher than the CLV value obtained by Pfeifer and Caraway model. But our model still requires a longer convergence time.

  9. Study of behavior and determination of customer lifetime value(CLV) using Markov chain model

    SciTech Connect

    Permana, Dony; Indratno, Sapto Wahyu; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.

    2014-03-24

    Customer Lifetime Value or CLV is a restriction on interactive marketing to help a company in arranging financial for the marketing of new customer acquisition and customer retention. Additionally CLV can be able to segment customers for financial arrangements. Stochastic models for the fairly new CLV used a Markov chain. In this model customer retention probability and new customer acquisition probability play an important role. This model is originally introduced by Pfeifer and Carraway in 2000 [1]. They introduced several CLV models, one of them only involves customer and former customer. In this paper we expand the model by adding the assumption of the transition from former customer to customer. In the proposed model, the CLV value is higher than the CLV value obtained by Pfeifer and Caraway model. But our model still requires a longer convergence time.

  10. Fluorescence lifetime imaging of endogenous molecules in live mouse cancer models (Conference Presentation)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Svindrych, Zdenek; Wang, Tianxiong; Hu, Song; Periasamy, Ammasi

    2017-02-01

    NADH and FAD are important endogenous fluorescent coenzymes participating in key enzymatic reactions of cellular metabolism. While fluorescence intensities of NADH and FAD have been used to determine the redox state of cells and tissues, this simple approach breaks down in the case of deep-tissue intravital imaging due to depth- and wavelength-dependent light absorption and scattering. To circumvent this limitation, our research focuses on fluorescence lifetimes of two-photon excited NADH and FAD emission to study the metabolic state of live tissues. In our custom-built scanning microscope we combine tunable femtosecond Ti:sapphire laser (operating at 740 nm for NADH excitation and 890 nm for FAD excitation), two GaAsP hybrid detectors for registering individual fluorescence photons and two Becker and Hickl time correlator boards for high precision lifetime measurements. Together with our rigorous FLIM analysis approach (including image segmentation, multi-exponential decay fitting and detailed statistical analysis) we are able to detect metabolic changes in cancer xenografts (human pancreatic cancer MPanc96 cells injected subcutaneously into the ear of an immunodeficient nude mouse), relative to surrounding healthy tissue. Advantageously, with the same instrumentation we can also take high-resolution and high-contrast images of second harmonic signal (SHG) originating from collagen fibers of both the healthy skin and the growing tumor. The combination of metabolic measurements (NADH and FAD lifetime) and morphological information (collagen SHG) allows us to follow the tumor growth in live mouse model and the changes in tumor microenvironment.

  11. Atmospheric Muon Lifetime, Standard Model of Particles and the Lead Stopping Power for Muons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gutarra-Leon, Angel; Barazandeh, Cioli; Majewski, Walerian

    2017-01-01

    The muon is a fundamental particles of matter. It decays into three other leptons through an exchange of the weak vector bosons W +/W-. Muons are present in the atmosphere from cosmic ray showers. By detecting the time delay between arrival of the muon and an appearance of the decay electron in our detector, we'll measure muon's lifetime at rest. From the lifetime we should be able to find the ratio gw /MW of the weak coupling constant gw (a weak analog of the electric charge) to the mass of the W-boson MW. Vacuum expectation value v of the Higg's field, which determines the masses of all particles of the Standard Model (SM), could be then calculated from our muon experiment as v =2MWc2/gw =(τ m μc2/6 π3ĥ)1/4m μc2 in terms of muon mass mµand muon lifetime τ only. Using known experimental value for MWc2 = 80.4 GeV we'll find the weak coupling constant gw. Using the SM relation e =gwsin θ√ hc ɛ0 with the experimental value of the Z0-photon weak mixing angle θ = 29o we could find from our muon lifetime the value of the elementary electric charge e. We'll determine the sea-level fluxes of low-energy and high-energy cosmic muons, then we'll shield the detector with varying thicknesses of lead plates and find the energy-dependent muon stopping power in lead.

  12. The application of cure models in the presence of competing risks: a tool for improved risk communication in population-based cancer patient survival.

    PubMed

    Eloranta, Sandra; Lambert, Paul C; Andersson, Therese M-L; Björkholm, Magnus; Dickman, Paul W

    2014-09-01

    Quantifying cancer patient survival from the perspective of cure is clinically relevant. However, most cure models estimate cure assuming no competing causes of death. We use a relative survival framework to demonstrate how flexible parametric cure models can be used in combination with competing-risks theory to incorporate noncancer deaths. Under a model that incorporates statistical cure, we present the probabilities that cancer patients (1) have died from their cancer, (2) have died from other causes, (3) will eventually die from their cancer, or (4) will eventually die from other causes, all as a function of time since diagnosis. We further demonstrate how conditional probabilities can be used to update the prognosis among survivors (eg, at 1 or 5 years after diagnosis) by summarizing the proportion of patients who will not die from their cancer. The proposed method is applied to Swedish population-based data for persons diagnosed with melanoma, colon cancer, or acute myeloid leukemia between 1973 and 2007.

  13. Assessing potential population impact of statin treatment for primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases in the USA: population-based modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Quanhe; Zhong, Yuna; Gillespie, Cathleen; Merritt, Robert; Bowman, Barbara; George, Mary G; Flanders, W Dana

    2017-01-01

    Objective New cholesterol treatment guidelines from American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association recommend statin treatment for more of US population to prevent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). It is important to assess how new guidelines may affect population-level health. This study assessed the impact of statin use for primary prevention of ASCVD under the new guidelines. Methods We used data from 2010 US Multiple Cause Mortality, Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) Linked Mortality File (1988–2006, n=8941) and NHANES 2005–2010 (n=3178) participants 40–75 years of age for the present study. Results Among 33.0 million adults meeting new guidelines for primary prevention of ASCVD, 8.8 million were taking statins; 24.2 million, including 7.7 million with diabetes, are eligible for statin treatment. If all those with diabetes used a statin, 2514 (95% CI 592 to 4142) predicted ASCVD deaths would be prevented annually with 482 (0 to 2239) predicted annual additional cases of myopathy based on randomised clinical trials (RCTs), and 11 801 (9251 to 14 916) using population-based study. Among 16.5 million without diabetes, 5425 (1276 to 8935) ASCVD deaths would be prevented annually with 16 406 (4922 to 26 250) predicted annual additional cases of diabetes and between 1030 (0 to 4791) and 24 302 (19 363 to 30 292) additional cases of myopathy based on RCTs and population-based study. Assuming 80% eligible population take statins with 80% medication adherence, among those without diabetes, the corresponding numbers were 3472 (817 to 5718) deaths, 10 500 (3150 to 16 800) diabetes, 660 (0 to 3066) myopathy (RCTs), and 15 554 (12 392 to 19 387) myopathy (population-based). The estimated total annual cost of statins use ranged from US$1.65 to US$6.5 billion if 100% of eligible population take statins. Conclusions This population-based modelling study focused on impact of statin use on

  14. Development, Calibration, and Validation of a U.S. White Male Population-Based Simulation Model of Esophageal Adenocarcinoma

    PubMed Central

    Hur, Chin; Hayeck, Tristan J.; Yeh, Jennifer M.; Richards, Ethan B.; Spechler, Stuart J.; Gazelle, G. Scott; Kong, Chung Yin

    2010-01-01

    Background The incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has risen rapidly in the U.S. and western world. The aim of the study was to begin the investigation of this rapid rise by developing, calibrating, and validating a mathematical disease simulation model of EAC using available epidemiologic data. Methods The model represents the natural history of EAC, including the essential biologic health states from normal mucosa to detected cancer. Progression rates between health states were estimated via calibration, which identified distinct parameter sets producing model outputs that fit epidemiologic data; specifically, the prevalence of pre-cancerous lesions and EAC cancer incidence from the published literature and Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data. As an illustrative example of a clinical and policy application, the calibrated and validated model retrospectively analyzed the potential benefit of an aspirin chemoprevention program. Results Model outcomes approximated calibration targets; results of the model's fit and validation are presented. Approximately 7,000 cases of EAC could have been prevented over a 30-year period if all white males started aspirin chemoprevention at age 40 in 1965. Conclusions The model serves as the foundation for future analyses to determine a cost-effective screening and management strategy to prevent EAC morbidity and mortality. PMID:20208996

  15. The Best Obesity Indices to Use in a Single Factor Model Indicating Metabolic Syndrome: a Population Based Study.

    PubMed

    Motamed, Nima; Zamani, Farhad; Rabiee, Behnam; Saeedian, Fatemeh Sima; Maadi, Mansooreh; Akhavan-Niaki, Haleh; Asouri, Mohsen

    2016-02-01

    Although metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a major health problem worldwide, there is no universal agreement on its definition. One of the major disagreements is dealing with the issue of obesity in this definition. This study was conducted to determine a preferably better index of obesity which can be interrelated with other components of MetS in a single factor model of MetS. Out of 6140 participants of a cohort study of subjects aged 10-90 years in northern Iran, the baseline data of 5616 participants aged 18-75 was considered.  Confirmatory factor analysis was conducted using AMOS software to evaluate a single factor model of MetS in which blood pressure, triglyceride (TG), high density lipoprotein (HDL), fasting blood sugar (FBS) and obesity measures including waist circumference (WC), body mass index (BMI),  waist to hip ratio (WHR) and waist to height ratio (WHtR) were used as indicators of metabolic syndrome. Four single factor models differing from each other by obesity indices were evaluated. The models were evaluated in all 5616 subjects and 4931 subjects without diabetes mellitus according to sex separately. All single factor models had appropriate fit indices with CFI > 0.95, GFI > 0.95 and RMSEA < 0.08 in non-diabetic population, wherein all models obtained the best values of fit indices in men and good fit indices in women. In the general population of men, the single factor models built based on WHR (Chi-square=6.9, df=2, P-value=0.031, RMSEA = 0.028, CI = 0.007-0.052, CFI = 0.994, GFI = 0.999 and AIC = 22.9)  and WHtR (Chi-square = 9.97, df = 2, P-value = 0.007, RMSEA = 0.036, CI = 0.016-0.059, CFI = 0.992, GFI = 0.998 and AIC = 25.97) were fitted properly with data while in th general population of women, the model based on WHR obtained better fit indices (Chi-square = 7.5, df = 2, P-value = 0.023, RMSEA = 0.033, CI = 0.011-0.060, CFI = 0.994, GFI = 0.998 and AIC = 23.5). Models based on WHtR obtained better regression weights than WHR. While single

  16. Lifetime Measurements of ^170Hf and a test of the Confined Beta Soft Rotor Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, M. K.; Werner, V.; Heinz, A.; Terry, J. R.; Qian, J.; Winkler, R.; Casperson, R.; Williams, E.; Berant, Z.; L"Uttke, R.; Shoraka, B.; Henning, G.

    2009-10-01

    Significant deviations from rigid rotor model energy level predictions have been known to occur in rare earth nuclei. Recently, it was shown these deviations may be caused by centrifugal stretching effects within the nucleus [1]. New geometrical models have been proposed that account for centrifugal stretching, such as the confined beta soft model (CBS). We present the results from a high precision lifetime experiment performed with the New Yale Plunger Device at WNSL, Yale University. The ground state band of ^170Hf was measured through the J=12^+ level using the Recoil Distance Doppler Shift method. Excited states were populated in the ^124Sn(^50Ti,γ)^170Hf fusion evaporation reaction. Using the lifetimes, the B(E2) values and the quadrupole deformation parameter are determined. Centrifugal stretching is observed as an increased deviation in energy at higher spins in 170Hf. These results are compared to theoretical predictions from the CBS rotor model. Supported by grant DE-FG02-91ER40609.[4pt] [1] Costin et al, Phys.Rev. C 79, 024307 (2009)

  17. Bayesian framework for parametric bivariate accelerated lifetime modeling and its application to hospital acquired infections.

    PubMed

    Bilgili, D; Ryu, D; Ergönül, Ö; Ebrahimi, N

    2016-03-01

    Infectious diseases that can be spread directly or indirectly from one person to another are caused by pathogenic microorganisms such as bacteria, viruses, parasites, or fungi. Infectious diseases remain one of the greatest threats to human health and the analysis of infectious disease data is among the most important application of statistics. In this article, we develop Bayesian methodology using parametric bivariate accelerated lifetime model to study dependency between the colonization and infection times for Acinetobacter baumannii bacteria which is leading cause of infection among the hospital infection agents. We also study their associations with covariates such as age, gender, apache score, antibiotics use 3 months before admission and invasive mechanical ventilation use. To account for singularity, we use Singular Bivariate Extreme Value distribution to model residuals in Bivariate Accelerated lifetime model under the fully Bayesian framework. We analyze a censored data related to the colonization and infection collected in five major hospitals in Turkey using our methodology. The data analysis done in this article is for illustration of our proposed method and can be applied to any situation that our model can be used.

  18. External validation of a COPD prediction model using population-based primary care data: a nested case-control study

    PubMed Central

    Nwaru, Bright I; Simpson, Colin R; Sheikh, Aziz; Kotz, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    Emerging models for predicting risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) require external validation in order to assess their clinical value. We validated a previous model for predicting new onset COPD in a different database. We randomly drew 38,597 case-control pairs (total N = 77,194) of individuals aged ≥35 years and matched for sex, age, and general practice from the United Kingdom Clinical Practice Research Datalink database. We assessed accuracy of the model to discriminate between COPD cases and non-cases by calculating area under the receiver operator characteristic (ROCAUC) for the prediction scores. Analogous to the development model, ever smoking (OR 6.70; 95%CI 6.41–6.99), prior asthma (OR 6.43; 95%CI 5.85–7.07), and higher socioeconomic deprivation (OR 2.90; 95%CI 2.72–3.09 for highest vs. lowest quintile) increased the risk of COPD. The validated prediction scores ranged from 0–5.71 (ROCAUC 0.66; 95%CI 0.65–0.66) for males and 0–5.95 (ROCAUC 0.71; 95%CI 0.70–0.71) for females. We have confirmed that smoking, prior asthma, and socioeconomic deprivation are key risk factors for new onset COPD. Our model seems externally valid at identifying patients at risk of developing COPD. An impact assessment now needs to be undertaken to assess whether this prediction model can be applied in clinical care settings. PMID:28304375

  19. Complete two loop bosonic contributions to the muon lifetime in the standard model.

    PubMed

    Awramik, M; Czakon, M

    2002-12-09

    The last missing correction to the muon lifetime in the standard model at O(alpha(2)) coming from gauge and Higgs boson loops is presented. The associated contribution to the parameter Deltar in the on-shell scheme ranges from 6x10(-5) to -4x10(-5) for Higgs boson masses from 100 GeV to 1 TeV. This result translates into a shift of the W boson mass which does not exceed +/-1 MeV in the same range and amounts, in particular, to approximately -0.8 MeV for a 115 GeV Higgs boson.

  20. Application of a dynamic population-based model for evaluation of exposure reduction strategies in the baking industry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meijster, Tim; Warren, Nick; Heederik, Dick; Tielemans, Erik

    2009-02-01

    Recently a dynamic population model was developed that simulates a population of bakery workers longitudinally through time and tracks the development of work-related sensitisation and respiratory symptoms in each worker. Input for this model comes from cross-sectional and longitudinal epidemiological studies which allowed estimation of exposure response relationships and disease transition probabilities This model allows us to study the development of diseases and transitions between disease states over time in relation to determinants of disease including flour dust and/or allergen exposure. Furthermore it enables more realistic modelling of the health impact of different intervention strategies at the workplace (e.g. changes in exposure may take several years to impact on ill-health and often occur as a gradual trend). A large dataset of individual full-shift exposure measurements and real-time exposure measurements were used to obtain detailed insight into the effectiveness of control measures and other determinants of exposure. Given this information a population wide reduction of the median exposure with 50% was evaluated in this paper.

  1. Partitioning of excess mortality in population-based cancer patient survival studies using flexible parametric survival models

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Relative survival is commonly used for studying survival of cancer patients as it captures both the direct and indirect contribution of a cancer diagnosis on mortality by comparing the observed survival of the patients to the expected survival in a comparable cancer-free population. However, existing methods do not allow estimation of the impact of isolated conditions (e.g., excess cardiovascular mortality) on the total excess mortality. For this purpose we extend flexible parametric survival models for relative survival, which use restricted cubic splines for the baseline cumulative excess hazard and for any time-dependent effects. Methods In the extended model we partition the excess mortality associated with a diagnosis of cancer through estimating a separate baseline excess hazard function for the outcomes under investigation. This is done by incorporating mutually exclusive background mortality rates, stratified by the underlying causes of death reported in the Swedish population, and by introducing cause of death as a time-dependent effect in the extended model. This approach thereby enables modeling of temporal trends in e.g., excess cardiovascular mortality and remaining cancer excess mortality simultaneously. Furthermore, we illustrate how the results from the proposed model can be used to derive crude probabilities of death due to the component parts, i.e., probabilities estimated in the presence of competing causes of death. Results The method is illustrated with examples where the total excess mortality experienced by patients diagnosed with breast cancer is partitioned into excess cardiovascular mortality and remaining cancer excess mortality. Conclusions The proposed method can be used to simultaneously study disease patterns and temporal trends for various causes of cancer-consequent deaths. Such information should be of interest for patients and clinicians as one way of improving prognosis after cancer is through adapting treatment

  2. Diagnosis of Parkinson’s disease on the basis of clinical–genetic classification: a population-based modelling study

    PubMed Central

    Nalls, Mike A.; McLean, Cory Y.; Rick, Jacqueline; Eberly, Shirley; Hutten, Samantha J.; Gwinn, Katrina; Sutherland, Margaret; Martinez, Maria; Heutink, Peter; Williams, Nigel; Hardy, John; Gasser, Thomas; Brice, Alexis; Price, T. Ryan; Nicolas, Aude; Keller, Margaux F.; Molony, Cliona; Gibbs, J. Raphael; Chen-Plotkin, Alice; Suh, Eunran; Letson, Christopher; Fiandaca, Massimo S.; Mapstone, Mark; Federoff, Howard J.; Noyce, Alastair J; Morris, Huw; Van Deerlin, Vivianna M.; Weintraub, Daniel; Zabetian, Cyrus; Hernandez, Dena G.; Lesage, Suzanne; Mullins, Meghan; Conley, Emily Drabant; Northover, Carrie; Frasier, Mark; Marek, Ken; Day-Williams, Aaron G.; Stone, David J.; Ioannidis, John P. A.; Singleton, Andrew B.

    2015-01-01

    Background Accurate diagnosis and early detection of complex disease has the potential to be of enormous benefit to clinical trialists, patients, and researchers alike. We sought to create a non-invasive, low-cost, and accurate classification model for diagnosing Parkinson’s disease risk to serve as a basis for future disease prediction studies in prospective longitudinal cohorts. Methods We developed a simple disease classifying model within 367 patients with Parkinson’s disease and phenotypically typical imaging data and 165 controls without neurological disease of the Parkinson’s Progression Marker Initiative (PPMI) study. Olfactory function, genetic risk, family history of PD, age and gender were algorithmically selected as significant contributors to our classifying model. This model was developed using the PPMI study then tested in 825 patients with Parkinson’s disease and 261 controls from five independent studies with varying recruitment strategies and designs including the Parkinson’s Disease Biomarkers Program (PDBP), Parkinson’s Associated Risk Study (PARS), 23andMe, Longitudinal and Biomarker Study in PD (LABS-PD), and Morris K. Udall Parkinson’s Disease Research Center of Excellence (Penn-Udall). Findings Our initial model correctly distinguished patients with Parkinson’s disease from controls at an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.923 (95% CI = 0.900 – 0.946) with high sensitivity (0.834, 95% CI = 0.711 – 0.883) and specificity (0.903, 95% CI = 0.824 – 0.946) in PPMI at its optimal AUC threshold (0.655). The model is also well-calibrated with all Hosmer-Lemeshow simulations suggesting that when parsed into random subgroups, the actual data mirrors that of the larger expected data, demonstrating that our model is robust and fits well. Likewise external validation shows excellent classification of PD with AUCs of 0.894 in PDBP, 0.998 in PARS, 0.955 in 23andMe, 0.929 in LABS-PD, and 0.939 in Penn-Udall. Additionally, when our model

  3. Diagnosis of Parkinson's disease on the basis of clinical and genetic classification: a population-based modelling study.

    PubMed

    Nalls, Mike A; McLean, Cory Y; Rick, Jacqueline; Eberly, Shirley; Hutten, Samantha J; Gwinn, Katrina; Sutherland, Margaret; Martinez, Maria; Heutink, Peter; Williams, Nigel M; Hardy, John; Gasser, Thomas; Brice, Alexis; Price, T Ryan; Nicolas, Aude; Keller, Margaux F; Molony, Cliona; Gibbs, J Raphael; Chen-Plotkin, Alice; Suh, Eunran; Letson, Christopher; Fiandaca, Massimo S; Mapstone, Mark; Federoff, Howard J; Noyce, Alastair J; Morris, Huw; Van Deerlin, Vivianna M; Weintraub, Daniel; Zabetian, Cyrus; Hernandez, Dena G; Lesage, Suzanne; Mullins, Meghan; Conley, Emily Drabant; Northover, Carrie A M; Frasier, Mark; Marek, Ken; Day-Williams, Aaron G; Stone, David J; Ioannidis, John P A; Singleton, Andrew B

    2015-10-01

    Accurate diagnosis and early detection of complex diseases, such as Parkinson's disease, has the potential to be of great benefit for researchers and clinical practice. We aimed to create a non-invasive, accurate classification model for the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease, which could serve as a basis for future disease prediction studies in longitudinal cohorts. We developed a model for disease classification using data from the Parkinson's Progression Marker Initiative (PPMI) study for 367 patients with Parkinson's disease and phenotypically typical imaging data and 165 controls without neurological disease. Olfactory function, genetic risk, family history of Parkinson's disease, age, and gender were algorithmically selected by stepwise logistic regression as significant contributors to our classifying model. We then tested the model with data from 825 patients with Parkinson's disease and 261 controls from five independent cohorts with varying recruitment strategies and designs: the Parkinson's Disease Biomarkers Program (PDBP), the Parkinson's Associated Risk Study (PARS), 23andMe, the Longitudinal and Biomarker Study in PD (LABS-PD), and the Morris K Udall Parkinson's Disease Research Center of Excellence cohort (Penn-Udall). Additionally, we used our model to investigate patients who had imaging scans without evidence of dopaminergic deficit (SWEDD). In the population from PPMI, our initial model correctly distinguished patients with Parkinson's disease from controls at an area under the curve (AUC) of 0·923 (95% CI 0·900-0·946) with high sensitivity (0·834, 95% CI 0·711-0·883) and specificity (0·903, 95% CI 0·824-0·946) at its optimum AUC threshold (0·655). All Hosmer-Lemeshow simulations suggested that when parsed into random subgroups, the subgroup data matched that of the overall cohort. External validation showed good classification of Parkinson's disease, with AUCs of 0·894 (95% CI 0·867-0·921) in the PDBP cohort, 0·998 (0·992-1·000

  4. Temperature dependence of o-Ps annihilation lifetime in non-uniform cylindrical pores in comparison with ETE model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Khaghani, Morteza; Mehmandoost-Khajeh-Dad, Ali Akbar

    2017-04-01

    Ortho-positronium (o-Ps) annihilation lifetime was calculated in non-uniform cylinder-shaped pores by solving Schrodinger equation using a well-known multi-physics program called COMSOL. The o-Ps annihilation lifetime variation in terms of temperature was calculated on the basis of ETE model via a numerical method. The COMSOL simulations indicate that as long as the pore is uniform cylinder-shaped, the results agree with those of two-dimensional ETE model, whereas deformations in the cylinder shape (indentation or protrusion) change the temperature behavior of ETE model and, thereby, higher values are predicted for o-Ps lifetime in the pore at lower temperatures. The geometry of the non-uniform cylinder-shaped pores, which is accompanied by empirical evidence, can be used for the analysis of empirical results obtained from positron lifetime spectroscopy in different temperatures.

  5. Bayesian Network Model with Application to Smart Power Semiconductor Lifetime Data.

    PubMed

    Plankensteiner, Kathrin; Bluder, Olivia; Pilz, Jürgen

    2015-09-01

    In this article, Bayesian networks are used to model semiconductor lifetime data obtained from a cyclic stress test system. The data of interest are a mixture of log-normal distributions, representing two dominant physical failure mechanisms. Moreover, the data can be censored due to limited test resources. For a better understanding of the complex lifetime behavior, interactions between test settings, geometric designs, material properties, and physical parameters of the semiconductor device are modeled by a Bayesian network. Statistical toolboxes in MATLAB® have been extended and applied to find the best structure of the Bayesian network and to perform parameter learning. Due to censored observations Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are employed to determine the posterior distributions. For model selection the automatic relevance determination (ARD) algorithm and goodness-of-fit criteria such as marginal likelihoods, Bayes factors, posterior predictive density distributions, and sum of squared errors of prediction (SSEP) are applied and evaluated. The results indicate that the application of Bayesian networks to semiconductor reliability provides useful information about the interactions between the significant covariates and serves as a reliable alternative to currently applied methods.

  6. The perpetual student: modeling duration of undergraduate studies based on lifetime-type educational data.

    PubMed

    Kalamatianou, Aglaia G; McClean, Sally

    2003-12-01

    It is important to educational planners to estimate the likelihood and time-scale of graduation of students enrolled on a curriculum. The particular case we are concerned with, emerges when studies are not completed in the prescribed interval of time. Under these circumstances we use a framework of survival analysis applied to lifetime-type educational data to examine the distribution of duration of undergraduate studies for 10,313 students, enrolled in a Greek university during ten consecutive academic years. Non-parametric and parametric survival models have been developed for handling this distribution as well as a modified procedure for testing goodness-of-fit of the models. Data censoring was taken into account in the statistical analysis and the problems of thresholding of graduation and of perpetual students are also addressed. We found that the proposed parametric model adequately describes the empirical distribution provided by non-parametric estimation. We also found significant difference between duration of studies of men and women students. The proposed methodology could be useful to analyse data from any other type and level of education or general lifetime data with similar characteristics.

  7. Modeling of LaB6 hollow cathode performance and lifetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pedrini, Daniela; Albertoni, Riccardo; Paganucci, Fabrizio; Andrenucci, Mariano

    2015-01-01

    Thermionic hollow cathodes are currently used as sources of electrons in a variety of space applications, in particular as cathodes/neutralizers of electric thrusters (Hall effect and ion thrusters). Numerical tools are needed to guide the design of new devices before their manufacturing and testing, since multiple geometrical parameters influence the cathode performance. A reduced-order, numerical model was developed to assess the performance of orificed hollow cathodes, with a focus on the operational lifetime. The importance of the lifetime prediction is tied to its impact on the operational lifetime of the thruster to which the cathode is coupled. The cathode architecture consists of a refractory metal tube with an internal electron emitter made of lanthanum hexaboride (LaB6). The choice of LaB6 accounts for the reduced evaporation rate, the low sensitivity to poisoning and the absence of an activation procedure with respect to oxide cathodes. A LaB6 emitter is thus a valuable option for long-lasting cathodes, despite its relatively high work-function and reactivity with many refractory metals at high temperatures. The suggested reduced-order model self-consistently predicts the key parameters of the cathode operation, shedding light on the power deposition processes as well as on the main erosion mechanisms. Preliminary results showed good agreement with both the experimental data collected by Alta and data available from the literature for different operating conditions and power levels. Next developments will include further comparisons between theoretical and experimental data, considering cathodes of various size and operating conditions.

  8. A model measuring therapeutic inertia and the associated factors among diabetes patients: A nationwide population-based study in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Huang, Li-Ying; Shau, Wen-Yi; Yeh, Hseng-Long; Chen, Tsung-Tai; Hsieh, Jun Yi; Su, Syi; Lai, Mei-Shu

    2015-01-01

    This article presents an analysis conducted on the patterns related to therapeutic inertia with the aim of uncovering how variables at the patient level and the healthcare provider level influence the intensification of therapy when it is clinically indicated. A cohort study was conducted on 899,135 HbA1c results from 168,876 adult diabetes patients with poorly controlled HbA1c levels. HbA1c results were used to identify variations in the prescription of hypoglycemic drugs. Logistic regression and hierarchical linear models (HLMs) were used to determine how differences among healthcare providers and patient characteristics influence therapeutic inertia. We estimated that 38.5% of the patients in this study were subject to therapeutic inertia. The odds ratio of cardiologists choosing to intensify therapy was 0.708 times that of endocrinologists. Furthermore, patients in medical centers were shown to be 1.077 times more likely to be prescribed intensified treatment than patients in primary clinics. The HLMs presented results similar to those of the logistic model. Overall, we determined that 88.92% of the variation in the application of intensified treatment was at the within-physician level. Reducing therapeutic inertia will likely require educational initiatives aimed at ensuring adherence to clinical practice guidelines in the care of diabetes patients. © 2014, The American College of Clinical Pharmacology.

  9. Development of a population-based cost-effectiveness model of chronic graft-versus-host disease in Spain.

    PubMed

    Crespo, Carlos; Pérez-Simón, José Anton; Rodríguez, José Manuel; Sierra, Jordi; Brosa, Max

    2012-08-01

    Chronic graft-versus-host disease (cGvHD) is the leading cause of late nonrelapse mortality (transplant-related mortality) after hematopoietic stem cell transplant. Given that there are a wide range of treatment options for cGvHD, assessment of the associated costs and efficacy can help clinicians and health care providers allocate health care resources more efficiently. The purpose of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of extracorporeal photopheresis (ECP) compared with rituximab (Rmb) and with imatinib (Imt) in patients with cGvHD at 5 years from the perspective of the Spanish National Health System. The model assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness/utility ratio of ECP versus Rmb or Imt for 1000 hypothetical patients by using microsimulation cost-effectiveness techniques. Model probabilities were obtained from the literature. Treatment pathways and adverse events were evaluated taking clinical opinion and published reports into consideration. Local data on costs (2010 Euros) and health care resources utilization were validated by the clinical authors. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to assess the robustness of the model. The greater efficacy of ECP resulted in a gain of 0.011 to 0.024 quality-adjusted life-year in the first year and 0.062 to 0.094 at year 5 compared with Rmb or Imt. The results showed that the higher acquisition cost of ECP versus Imt was compensated for at 9 months by greater efficacy; this higher cost was partially compensated for (€517) by year 5 versus Rmb. After 9 months, ECP was dominant (cheaper and more effective) compared with Imt. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ECP versus Rmb was €29,646 per life-year gained and €24,442 per quality-adjusted life-year gained at year 2.5. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis confirmed the results. The main study limitation was that to assess relative treatment effects, only small studies were available for indirect comparison. ECP as a third-line therapy for

  10. Direct analysis of unphased SNP genotype data in population-based association studies via Bayesian partition modelling of haplotypes.

    PubMed

    Morris, Andrew P

    2005-09-01

    We describe a novel method for assessing the strength of disease association with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in a candidate gene or small candidate region, and for estimating the corresponding haplotype relative risks of disease, using unphased genotype data directly. We begin by estimating the relative frequencies of haplotypes consistent with observed SNP genotypes. Under the Bayesian partition model, we specify cluster centres from this set of consistent SNP haplotypes. The remaining haplotypes are then assigned to the cluster with the "nearest" centre, where distance is defined in terms of SNP allele matches. Within a logistic regression modelling framework, each haplotype within a cluster is assigned the same disease risk, reducing the number of parameters required. Uncertainty in phase assignment is addressed by considering all possible haplotype configurations consistent with each unphased genotype, weighted in the logistic regression likelihood by their probabilities, calculated according to the estimated relative haplotype frequencies. We develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample over the space of haplotype clusters and corresponding disease risks, allowing for covariates that might include environmental risk factors or polygenic effects. Application of the algorithm to SNP genotype data in an 890-kb region flanking the CYP2D6 gene illustrates that we can identify clusters of haplotypes with similar risk of poor drug metaboliser (PDM) phenotype, and can distinguish PDM cases carrying different high-risk variants. Further, the results of a detailed simulation study suggest that we can identify positive evidence of association for moderate relative disease risks with a sample of 1,000 cases and 1,000 controls.

  11. Associations of iron metabolism genes with blood manganese levels: a population-based study with validation data from animal models

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Given mounting evidence for adverse effects from excess manganese exposure, it is critical to understand host factors, such as genetics, that affect manganese metabolism. Methods Archived blood samples, collected from 332 Mexican women at delivery, were analyzed for manganese. We evaluated associations of manganese with functional variants in three candidate iron metabolism genes: HFE [hemochromatosis], TF [transferrin], and ALAD [δ-aminolevulinic acid dehydratase]. We used a knockout mouse model to parallel our significant results as a novel method of validating the observed associations between genotype and blood manganese in our epidemiologic data. Results Percentage of participants carrying at least one copy of HFE C282Y, HFE H63D, TF P570S, and ALAD K59N variant alleles was 2.4%, 17.7%, 20.1%, and 6.4%, respectively. Percentage carrying at least one copy of either C282Y or H63D allele in HFE gene was 19.6%. Geometric mean (geometric standard deviation) manganese concentrations were 17.0 (1.5) μg/l. Women with any HFE variant allele had 12% lower blood manganese concentrations than women with no variant alleles (β = -0.12 [95% CI = -0.23 to -0.01]). TF and ALAD variants were not significant predictors of blood manganese. In animal models, Hfe-/- mice displayed a significant reduction in blood manganese compared with Hfe+/+ mice, replicating the altered manganese metabolism found in our human research. Conclusions Our study suggests that genetic variants in iron metabolism genes may contribute to variability in manganese exposure by affecting manganese absorption, distribution, or excretion. Genetic background may be critical to consider in studies that rely on environmental manganese measurements. PMID:22074419

  12. BELA receiver performance modeling over the BepiColombo mission lifetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gunderson, Kurt; Thomas, Nicolas

    2010-01-01

    Performance modeling of the BepiColombo laser altimeter (BELA) receiver has been performed in the context of return pulse detection probability and measurement accuracies. Models have been extended beyond earlier work [Gunderson, K., Thomas, N., Rohner, M., 2006. A laser altimeter performance model and its application to BELA. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 44, 3308-3319] to explore the receiver response to time-varying orbital conditions and potential instrument component degradations over the mission lifetime. New signal processing derivations are presented, and the set of measurement accuracy predictions has been broadened to include albedo and return pulse width in addition to range accuracy. Two detector gain optimization derivations are also described and applied as guides towards the identification of a preferred performance enhancing strategy.

  13. Approaches in methodology for population-based longitudinal study on neuroprotective model for healthy longevity (TUA) among Malaysian Older Adults.

    PubMed

    Shahar, Suzana; Omar, Azahadi; Vanoh, Divya; Hamid, Tengku Aizan; Mukari, Siti Zamratol Mai-Sarah; Din, Normah Che; Rajab, Nor Fadilah; Mohammed, Zainora; Ibrahim, Rahimah; Loo, Won Hui; Meramat, Asheila; Kamaruddin, Mohd Zul Amin; Bagat, Mohamad Fazdillah; Razali, Rosdinom

    2016-12-01

    A number of longitudinal studies on aging have been designed to determine the predictors of healthy longevity, including the neuroprotective factors, however, relatively few studies included a wide range of factors and highlighted the challenges faced during data collection. Thus, the longitudinal study on neuroprotective model for healthy longevity (LRGS TUA) has been designed to prospectively investigate the magnitude of cognitive decline and its risk factors through a comprehensive multidimensional assessment comprising of biophysical health, auditory and visual function, nutrition and dietary pattern and psychosocial aspects. At baseline, subjects were interviewed for their status on sociodemographic, health, neuropsychological test, psychosocial and dietary intake. Subjects were also measured for anthropometric and physical function and fitness. Biospecimens including blood, buccal swap, hair and toenail were collected, processed and stored. A subsample was assessed for sensory function, i.e., vision and auditory. During follow-up, at 18 and 36 months, most of the measurements, along with morbidity and mortality outcomes will be collected. The description of mild cognitive impairment, successful aging and usual aging process is presented here. A total 2322 respondents were recruited in the data analysis at baseline. Most of the respondents were categorized as experiencing usual aging (73 %), followed by successful aging (11 %) and mild cognitive impairment (16 %). The LRGS TUA study is the most comprehensive longitudinal study on aging in Malaysia, and will contribute to the understanding of the aging process and factors associated with healthy aging and mental well-being of a multiethnic population in Malaysia.

  14. Improving Trust and Reputation Modeling in E-Commerce Using Agent Lifetime and Transaction Count

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cormier, Catherine; Tran, Thomas T.

    Effective and reliable trust and reputation modeling systems are central to the success of decentralized e-commerce systems where autonomous agents are relied upon to conduct commercial transactions. However, the subjective and social-based qualities that are inherent to trust and reputation introduce many complexities into the development of a reliable model. Existing research has successfully demonstrated how trust systems can be decentralized and has illustrated the importance of sharing trust information, or rather, modeling reputation. Still, few models have provided a solution for developing an initial set of advisors from whom to solicit reputation rankings, or have taken into account all of the social criteria used to determine trustworthiness. To meet these objectives, we propose the use of two new parameters in trust and reputation modeling: agent lifetime and total transaction count. We describe a model that employs these parameters to calculate an agent’s seniority, then apply this information when selecting agents for soliciting and ranking reputation information. Experiments using this model are described. The results are then presented and discussed to evaluate the effect of using these parameters in reputation modeling. We also discuss the value of our particular model in contrast with related work and conclude with directions for future research.

  15. Validity of Various Approaches to Global Kinetic Modeling of Material Lifetimes

    SciTech Connect

    Burnham, A K; Dinh, L N

    2006-09-11

    Chemical kinetic modeling has been used for many years in process optimization, estimating real-time material performance, and lifetime prediction. Chemists have tended towards developing detailed mechanistic models, while engineers have tended towards global or lumped models. Many, if not most, applications use global models by necessity, since it is impractical or impossible to develop a rigorous mechanistic model. Model fitting acquired a bad connotation in the thermal analysis community after that community realized a decade after other disciplines that deriving kinetic parameters for an assumed model from a single heating rate produced unreliable and sometimes nonsensical results. In its place, advanced isoconversional methods, which have their roots in the Friedman and Ozawa-Flynn-Wall methods of the 1960s, have become increasingly popular. In fact, as pointed out by the ICTAC kinetics project in 2000, valid kinetic parameters can be derived by both isoconversional and model fitting methods as long as a diverse set of thermal histories are used to derive the kinetic parameters. The current paper extends the understanding from that project to give a better appreciation of the strengths and weaknesses of isoconversional and model-fitting approaches. Examples are given from a variety of data sets.

  16. Budget Impact Analysis of Switching to Digital Mammography in a Population-Based Breast Cancer Screening Program: A Discrete Event Simulation Model

    PubMed Central

    Comas, Mercè; Arrospide, Arantzazu; Mar, Javier; Sala, Maria; Vilaprinyó, Ester; Hernández, Cristina; Cots, Francesc; Martínez, Juan; Castells, Xavier

    2014-01-01

    Objective To assess the budgetary impact of switching from screen-film mammography to full-field digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program. Methods A discrete-event simulation model was built to reproduce the breast cancer screening process (biennial mammographic screening of women aged 50 to 69 years) combined with the natural history of breast cancer. The simulation started with 100,000 women and, during a 20-year simulation horizon, new women were dynamically entered according to the aging of the Spanish population. Data on screening were obtained from Spanish breast cancer screening programs. Data on the natural history of breast cancer were based on US data adapted to our population. A budget impact analysis comparing digital with screen-film screening mammography was performed in a sample of 2,000 simulation runs. A sensitivity analysis was performed for crucial screening-related parameters. Distinct scenarios for recall and detection rates were compared. Results Statistically significant savings were found for overall costs, treatment costs and the costs of additional tests in the long term. The overall cost saving was 1,115,857€ (95%CI from 932,147 to 1,299,567) in the 10th year and 2,866,124€ (95%CI from 2,492,610 to 3,239,638) in the 20th year, representing 4.5% and 8.1% of the overall cost associated with screen-film mammography. The sensitivity analysis showed net savings in the long term. Conclusions Switching to digital mammography in a population-based breast cancer screening program saves long-term budget expense, in addition to providing technical advantages. Our results were consistent across distinct scenarios representing the different results obtained in European breast cancer screening programs. PMID:24832200

  17. Modeling motivation and habit in driving behavior under lifetime driver's license revocation.

    PubMed

    Tseng, Chien-Ming; Chang, Hsin-Li; Woo, T Hugh

    2013-03-01

    The purpose of the present study was to verify the motivational factors underlying the theory of planned behavior (TPB) predicting the driving behavior of lifetime driving license revoked offenders. Of a total of 639 drivers whose licenses had been permanently revoked, 544 offenders completed a questionnaire constructed to measure attitudes toward behaviors, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control, behavioral intentions (the key constructs of the TPB), and previous driving habit strength. The finding of the study revealed that an offenders' driving behavior after a lifetime license revocation was significantly correlated to behavioral intention (R=0.60, p<0.01), perceived behavioral control (R=0.61, p<0.01), previous driving habit (R=0.44, p<0.01), and attitude (R=0.41, p<0.01). There was no evidence that subjective norms including road regulation, society ethics, and people important to offenders had an influence on driving behavior (R=0.03). Low driving habit strength offenders are motivated to drive because of behavioral intention, whereas strong driving habit strength offenders are motivated to drive because of perceived behavioral control. Previous driving habit strength is a moderator in the intention-behavior relationship. The model appeared successful when previous habits were weak, but less successful when previous habits were strong. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Development of a lifetime prediction model for lithium-ion batteries based on extended accelerated aging test data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ecker, Madeleine; Gerschler, Jochen B.; Vogel, Jan; Käbitz, Stefan; Hust, Friedrich; Dechent, Philipp; Sauer, Dirk Uwe

    2012-10-01

    Battery lifetime prognosis is a key requirement for successful market introduction of electric and hybrid vehicles. This work aims at the development of a lifetime prediction approach based on an aging model for lithium-ion batteries. A multivariable analysis of a detailed series of accelerated lifetime experiments representing typical operating conditions in hybrid electric vehicle is presented. The impact of temperature and state of charge on impedance rise and capacity loss is quantified. The investigations are based on a high-power NMC/graphite lithium-ion battery with good cycle lifetime. The resulting mathematical functions are physically motivated by the occurring aging effects and are used for the parameterization of a semi-empirical aging model. An impedance-based electric-thermal model is coupled to the aging model to simulate the dynamic interaction between aging of the battery and the thermal as well as electric behavior. Based on these models different drive cycles and management strategies can be analyzed with regard to their impact on lifetime. It is an important tool for vehicle designers and for the implementation of business models. A key contribution of the paper is the parameterization of the aging model by experimental data, while aging simulation in the literature usually lacks a robust empirical foundation.

  19. Benefits and costs of methadone treatment: results from a lifetime simulation model.

    PubMed

    Zarkin, Gary A; Dunlap, Laura J; Hicks, Katherine A; Mamo, Daniel

    2005-11-01

    Several studies have examined the benefits and costs of drug treatment; however, they have typically focused on the benefits and costs of a single treatment episode. Although beneficial for certain analyses, the results are limited because they implicitly treat drug abuse as an acute problem that can be treated in one episode. We developed a Monte Carlo simulation model that incorporates the chronic nature of drug abuse. Our model represents the progression of individuals from the general population aged 18-60 with respect to their heroin use, treatment for heroin use, criminal behavior, employment, and health care use. We also present three model scenarios representing an increase in the probability of going to treatment, an increase in the treatment length of stay, and a scenario in which drug treatment is not available to evaluate how changes in treatment parameters affect model results. We find that the benefit-cost ratio of treatment from our lifetime model (37.72) exceeds the benefit-cost ratio from a static model (4.86). The model provides a rich characterization of the dynamics of heroin use and captures the notion of heroin use as a chronic recurring condition. Similar models can be developed for other chronic diseases, such as diabetes, mental illness, or cardiovascular disease.

  20. Emerging organisational models of primary healthcare and unmet needs for care: insights from a population-based survey in Quebec province.

    PubMed

    Levesque, Jean-Frédéric; Pineault, Raynald; Hamel, Marjolaine; Roberge, Danièle; Kapetanakis, Costas; Simard, Brigitte; Prud'homme, Alexandre

    2012-07-02

    Reform of primary healthcare (PHC) organisations is underway in Canada. The capacity of various types of PHC organizations to respond to populations' needs remains to be assessed. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the association of PHC affiliation with unmet needs for care. Population-based survey of 9205 randomly selected adults in two regions of Quebec, Canada. Outcomes Self-reported unmet needs for care and identification of the usual source of PHC. Among eligible adults, 18% reported unmet needs for care in the last six months. Reasons reported for unmet needs were: waiting times (59% of cases); unavailability of usual doctor (42%); impossibility to obtain an appointment (36%); doctors not accepting new patients (31%). Regression models showed that unmet needs were decreasing with age and was lower among males, the least educated, and unemployed or retired. Controlling for other factors, unmet needs were higher among the poor and those with worse health status. Having a family doctor was associated with fewer unmet needs. People reporting a usual source of care in the last two-years were more likely to report unmet need for care. There were no differences in unmet needs for care across types of PHC organisations when controlling for affiliation with a family physician. Reform models of primary healthcare consistent with the medical home concept did not differ from other types of organisations in our study. Further research looking at primary healthcare reform models at other levels of implementation should be done.

  1. Modeling of high homologous temperature deformation behavior for stress and life-time analyses

    SciTech Connect

    Krempl, E.

    1997-12-31

    Stress and lifetime analyses need realistic and accurate constitutive models for the inelastic deformation behavior of engineering alloys at low and high temperatures. Conventional creep and plasticity models have fundamental difficulties in reproducing high homologous temperature behavior. To improve the modeling capabilities {open_quotes}unified{close_quotes} state variable theories were conceived. They consider all inelastic deformation rate-dependent and do not have separate repositories for creep and plasticity. The viscoplasticity theory based on overstress (VBO), one of the unified theories, is introduced and its properties are delineated. At high homologous temperature where secondary and tertiary creep are observed modeling is primarily accomplished by a static recovery term and a softening isotropic stress. At low temperatures creep is merely a manifestation of rate dependence. The primary creep modeled at low homologous temperature is due to the rate dependence of the flow law. The model is unaltered in the transition from low to high temperature except that the softening of the isotropic stress and the influence of the static recovery term increase with an increase of the temperature.

  2. Theory and models of material erosion and lifetime during plasma instabilities in a tokamak environment.

    SciTech Connect

    Hassanein, A.; Konkashbaev, I.

    1999-11-08

    Surface and structural damage to plasma-facing components (PFCs) due to the frequent loss of plasma confinement remains a serious problem for the tokamak reactor concept. The deposited plasma energy causes significant surface erosion, possible structural failure, and frequent plasma contamination. Surface damage consists of vaporization, spallation, and liquid splatter of metallic materials. Structural damage includes large temperature increases in structural materials and at the interfaces between surface coatings and structural members. To evaluate the lifetimes of plasma-facing materials and nearby components and to predict the various forms of damage that they experience, comprehensive models (contained in the HEIGHTS computer simulation package) are developed, integrated self-consistently, and enhanced. Splashing mechanisms such as bubble boiling and various liquid magnetohydrodynamic instabilities and brittle destruction mechanisms of nonmelting materials are being examined. The design requirements and implications of plasma-facing and nearby components are discussed, along with recommendations to mitigate and reduce the effects of plasma instabilities on reactor components.

  3. Falling in the elderly: Do statistical models matter for performance criteria of fall prediction? Results from two large population-based studies.

    PubMed

    Kabeshova, Anastasiia; Launay, Cyrille P; Gromov, Vasilii A; Fantino, Bruno; Levinoff, Elise J; Allali, Gilles; Beauchet, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    To compare performance criteria (i.e., sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, area under receiver operating characteristic curve and accuracy) of linear and non-linear statistical models for fall risk in older community-dwellers. Participants were recruited in two large population-based studies, "Prévention des Chutes, Réseau 4" (PCR4, n=1760, cross-sectional design, retrospective collection of falls) and "Prévention des Chutes Personnes Agées" (PCPA, n=1765, cohort design, prospective collection of falls). Six linear statistical models (i.e., logistic regression, discriminant analysis, Bayes network algorithm, decision tree, random forest, boosted trees), three non-linear statistical models corresponding to artificial neural networks (multilayer perceptron, genetic algorithm and neuroevolution of augmenting topologies [NEAT]) and the adaptive neuro fuzzy interference system (ANFIS) were used. Falls ≥1 characterizing fallers and falls ≥2 characterizing recurrent fallers were used as outcomes. Data of studies were analyzed separately and together. NEAT and ANFIS had better performance criteria compared to other models. The highest performance criteria were reported with NEAT when using PCR4 database and falls ≥1, and with both NEAT and ANFIS when pooling data together and using falls ≥2. However, sensitivity and specificity were unbalanced. Sensitivity was higher than specificity when identifying fallers, whereas the converse was found when predicting recurrent fallers. Our results showed that NEAT and ANFIS were non-linear statistical models with the best performance criteria for the prediction of falls but their sensitivity and specificity were unbalanced, underscoring that models should be used respectively for the screening of fallers and the diagnosis of recurrent fallers. Copyright © 2015 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. The lifetime prediction model of stirling cryocooler for infrared detector assembly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Shao-hua; Liu, Xin-guang; Wu, Yi-nong

    2013-09-01

    With the rapid development of infrared focal plane array detector, stirling cyrocooler as a cold source has played an important role in space application. However, it is difficult to qualify its reliability and life expectancy before space application. Existing experiment and research data show that the most critical factor to restrict stirling cryocooler's service life is working gas contamination. Based on outgassing of stirling cryocooler internal material and its relationship with temperature, time and outgassing experimental data, the failure life model of contamination is proposed. By thousands of hours of accelerated life test, two types of prototype cryocooler have been verified for applicability of the proposed life model, and the working gas analysis of tested cryocoolers also proved the existence of contamination. Afterwards, through three group contaminations adding experiment of different level water vapor, the degradation characteristics of more than 1000 hour have proved complying with the life model above. Finally, the paper further verified the applicability of this model by the fitting of experimental data of long-term running in working condition. Consequently, the life model of stirling cryocooler caused contamination degradation is established, as well as an accelerated lifetime evaluation technique was proposed for stirling cryocooler.

  5. Solving inverse problem for Markov chain model of customer lifetime value using flower pollination algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Al-Ma'shumah, Fathimah; Permana, Dony; Sidarto, Kuntjoro Adji

    2015-12-01

    Customer Lifetime Value is an important and useful concept in marketing. One of its benefits is to help a company for budgeting marketing expenditure for customer acquisition and customer retention. Many mathematical models have been introduced to calculate CLV considering the customer retention/migration classification scheme. A fairly new class of these models which will be described in this paper uses Markov Chain Models (MCM). This class of models has the major advantage for its flexibility to be modified to several different cases/classification schemes. In this model, the probabilities of customer retention and acquisition play an important role. From Pfeifer and Carraway, 2000, the final formula of CLV obtained from MCM usually contains nonlinear form of the transition probability matrix. This nonlinearity makes the inverse problem of CLV difficult to solve. This paper aims to solve this inverse problem, yielding the approximate transition probabilities for the customers, by applying metaheuristic optimization algorithm developed by Yang, 2013, Flower Pollination Algorithm. The major interpretation of obtaining the transition probabilities are to set goals for marketing teams in keeping the relative frequencies of customer acquisition and customer retention.

  6. A mixture Weibull proportional hazard model for mechanical system failure prediction utilising lifetime and monitoring data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Qing; Hua, Cheng; Xu, Guanghua

    2014-02-01

    As mechanical systems increase in complexity, it is becoming more and more common to observe multiple failure modes. The system failure can be regarded as the result of interaction and competition between different failure modes. It is therefore necessary to combine multiple failure modes when analysing the failure of an overall system. In this paper, a mixture Weibull proportional hazard model (MWPHM) is proposed to predict the failure of a mechanical system with multiple failure modes. The mixed model parameters are estimated by combining historical lifetime and monitoring data of all failure modes. In addition, the system failure probability density is obtained by proportionally mixing the failure probability density of multiple failure modes. Monitoring data are input into the MWPHM to estimate the system reliability and predict the system failure time. A simulated sample set is used to verify the ability of the MWPHM to model multiple failure modes. Finally, the MWPHM and the traditional Weibull proportional hazard model (WPHM) are applied to a high-pressure water descaling pump, which has two failure modes: sealing ring wear and thrust bearing damage. Results show that the MWPHM is greatly superior in system failure prediction to the WPHM.

  7. A self-assessment predictive model for type 2 diabetes or impaired fasting glycaemia derived from a population-based survey.

    PubMed

    Asadollahi, Khairollah; Asadollahi, Parisa; Azizi, Monire; Abangah, Ghobad

    2017-09-01

    There is no cure for diabetes and its prevention is interesting for both people and health policy makers. The aim of this study was to construct a simple scoring system to predict diabetes and suggest a self assessment predictive model for type 2 diabetes in Iran. This study was a part of a comprehensive population based survey performed in Ilam province during 2011-2012, including 2158 cases≥25years. All demographic and laboratory results were entered into the prepared sheets and were analysed using SPSS 16. By identification of relative risks of diabetes and IFG, a predictive model was constructed and proposed for these abnormalities. Totally, 2158 people comprising 72% female, 60% from urban regions, mean age of 45.5±14years were investigated and the average height, weight, FBS and waist of participants were as follows respectively: 164±8.9cm, 68.4±12.3kg, 5.7±2.8mmol/l (102.6±49.9mg/dl) and 82.3±14.3cm. The prevalence of IFG, diabetes and hyperglycaemia among all participants were 7.8%, 11.8% and 19.6% respectively. Regression analysis revealed familial history of diabetes, place of life, age, hypertension, daily exercise, marital status, gender, waist size, smoking, and BMI as the most relevant risk factors for diabetes and hyperglycemia. A self-assessment predictive model was constructed for general population living in the west of Iran. This is the first self-assessment predictive model for diabetes in Iran. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  8. Natural History of Dependency in the Elderly: A 24-Year Population-Based Study Using a Longitudinal Item Response Theory Model.

    PubMed

    Edjolo, Arlette; Proust-Lima, Cécile; Delva, Fleur; Dartigues, Jean-François; Pérès, Karine

    2016-02-15

    We aimed to describe the hierarchical structure of Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) and basic Activities of Daily Living (ADL) and trajectories of dependency before death in an elderly population using item response theory methodology. Data were obtained from a population-based French cohort study, the Personnes Agées QUID (PAQUID) Study, of persons aged ≥65 years at baseline in 1988 who were recruited from 75 randomly selected areas in Gironde and Dordogne. We evaluated IADL and ADL data collected at home every 2-3 years over a 24-year period (1988-2012) for 3,238 deceased participants (43.9% men). We used a longitudinal item response theory model to investigate the item sequence of 11 IADL and ADL combined into a single scale and functional trajectories adjusted for education, sex, and age at death. The findings confirmed the earliest losses in IADL (shopping, transporting, finances) at the partial limitation level, and then an overlapping of concomitant IADL and ADL, with bathing and dressing being the earliest ADL losses, and finally total losses for toileting, continence, eating, and transferring. Functional trajectories were sex-specific, with a benefit of high education that persisted until death in men but was only transient in women. An in-depth understanding of this sequence provides an early warning of functional decline for better adaptation of medical and social care in the elderly.

  9. The relationship between the Five-Factor Model personality traits and peptic ulcer disease in a large population-based adult sample.

    PubMed

    Realo, Anu; Teras, Andero; Kööts-Ausmees, Liisi; Esko, Tõnu; Metspalu, Andres; Allik, Jüri

    2015-12-01

    The current study examined the relationship between the Five-Factor Model personality traits and physician-confirmed peptic ulcer disease (PUD) diagnosis in a large population-based adult sample, controlling for the relevant behavioral and sociodemographic factors. Personality traits were assessed by participants themselves and by knowledgeable informants using the NEO Personality Inventory-3 (NEO PI-3). When controlling for age, sex, education, and cigarette smoking, only one of the five NEO PI-3 domain scales - higher Neuroticism - and two facet scales - lower A1: Trust and higher C1: Competence - made a small, yet significant contribution (p < 0.01) to predicting PUD in logistic regression analyses. In the light of these relatively modest associations, our findings imply that it is certain behavior (such as smoking) and sociodemographic variables (such as age, gender, and education) rather than personality traits that are associated with the diagnosis of PUD at a particular point in time. Further prospective studies with a longitudinal design and multiple assessments would be needed to fully understand if the FFM personality traits serve as risk factors for the development of PUD. © 2015 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. The lifetime of the soliton in the improved Davydov model at the biological temperature 300 K for protein molecules

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao-feng, Pang

    We study the effects of quantum fluctuations and thermal perturbations on the lifetime of the soliton in the improved Davydov model proposed by us with two-quanta and with an added interaction. By using quantum perturbation theory, we compute the soliton lifetime for a wide ranges of parameter values relevant for protein molecules. The lifetime of the new soliton at the biological temperature 300 K is of the order of 10-10 second or τ/τ>= 500 for parameters appropriate to α-helical protein molecules. This shows clearly that the new soliton in the improved model is a viable mechanism for the bio-energy transport in the α-helix region of proteins.

  11. Risk factors and a clinical prediction model for low maternal thyroid function during early pregnancy: two population-based prospective cohort studies.

    PubMed

    Korevaar, Tim I M; Nieboer, Daan; Bisschop, Peter H L T; Goddijn, Mariette; Medici, Marco; Chaker, Layal; de Rijke, Yolanda B; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Visser, Theo J; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Tiemeier, Henning; Vrijkotte, Tanja G; Peeters, Robin P

    2016-12-01

    Low maternal thyroid function during early pregnancy is associated with various adverse outcomes including impaired neurocognitive development of the offspring, premature delivery and abnormal birthweight. To aid doctors in the risk assessment of thyroid dysfunction during pregnancy, we set out to investigate clinical risk factors and derive a prediction model based on easily obtainable clinical variables. In total, 9767 women during early pregnancy (≤18 week) were selected from two population-based prospective cohorts: the Generation R Study (N = 5985) and the ABCD study (N = 3782). We aimed to investigate the association of easily obtainable clinical subject characteristics such as maternal age, BMI, smoking status, ethnicity, parity and gestational age at blood sampling with the risk of low free thyroxine (FT4) and elevated thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), determined according to the 2·5th-97·5th reference range in TPOAb negative women. BMI, nonsmoking and ethnicity were risk factors for elevated TSH levels; however, the discriminative ability was poor (range c-statistic of 0·57-0·60). Sensitivity analysis showed that addition of TPOAbs to the model yielded a c-statistic of 0·73-0·75. Maternal age, BMI, smoking, parity and gestational age at blood sampling were risk factors for low FT4, which taken together provided adequate discrimination (range c-statistic of 0·72-0·76). Elevated TSH levels depend predominantly on TPOAb levels, and prediction of elevated TSH levels is not possible with clinical characteristics only. In contrast, the validated clinical prediction model for FT4 had high discriminative value to assess the likelihood of low FT4 levels. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  12. Emerging organisational models of primary healthcare and unmet needs for care: insights from a population-based survey in Quebec province

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Reform of primary healthcare (PHC) organisations is underway in Canada. The capacity of various types of PHC organizations to respond to populations’ needs remains to be assessed. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the association of PHC affiliation with unmet needs for care. Methods Population-based survey of 9205 randomly selected adults in two regions of Quebec, Canada. Outcomes Self-reported unmet needs for care and identification of the usual source of PHC. Results Among eligible adults, 18 % reported unmet needs for care in the last six months. Reasons reported for unmet needs were: waiting times (59 % of cases); unavailability of usual doctor (42 %); impossibility to obtain an appointment (36 %); doctors not accepting new patients (31 %). Regression models showed that unmet needs were decreasing with age and was lower among males, the least educated, and unemployed or retired. Controlling for other factors, unmet needs were higher among the poor and those with worse health status. Having a family doctor was associated with fewer unmet needs. People reporting a usual source of care in the last two-years were more likely to report unmet need for care. There were no differences in unmet needs for care across types of PHC organisations when controlling for affiliation with a family physician. Conclusion Reform models of primary healthcare consistent with the medical home concept did not differ from other types of organisations in our study. Further research looking at primary healthcare reform models at other levels of implementation should be done. PMID:22748060

  13. Optical damage performance of conductive widegap semiconductors: spatial, temporal, and lifetime modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Elhadj, Selim; Yoo, Jae-hyuck; Negres, Raluca A.; Menor, Marlon G.; Adams, John J.; Shen, Nan; Cross, David A.; Bass, Isaac L.; Bude, Jeff D.

    2016-12-19

    The optical damage performance of electrically conductive gallium nitride (GaN) and indium tin oxide (ITO) films is addressed using large area, high power laser beam exposures at 1064 nm sub-bandgap wavelength. Analysis of the laser damage process assumes that onset of damage (threshold) is determined by the absorption and heating of a nanoscale region of a characteristic size reaching a critical temperature. We use this model to rationalize semi-quantitatively the pulse width scaling of the damage threshold from picosecond to nanosecond timescales, along with the pulse width dependence of the damage threshold probability derived by fitting large beam damage density data. Multi-shot exposures were used to address lifetime performance degradation described by an empirical expression based on the single exposure damage model. A damage threshold degradation of at least 50% was observed for both materials. Overall, the GaN films tested had 5-10 × higher optical damage thresholds than the ITO films tested for comparable transmission and electrical conductivity. This route to optically robust, large aperture transparent electrodes and power optoelectronics may thus involve use of next generation widegap semiconductors such as GaN.

  14. Optical damage performance of conductive widegap semiconductors: spatial, temporal, and lifetime modeling

    DOE PAGES

    Elhadj, Selim; Yoo, Jae-hyuck; Negres, Raluca A.; ...

    2016-12-19

    The optical damage performance of electrically conductive gallium nitride (GaN) and indium tin oxide (ITO) films is addressed using large area, high power laser beam exposures at 1064 nm sub-bandgap wavelength. Analysis of the laser damage process assumes that onset of damage (threshold) is determined by the absorption and heating of a nanoscale region of a characteristic size reaching a critical temperature. We use this model to rationalize semi-quantitatively the pulse width scaling of the damage threshold from picosecond to nanosecond timescales, along with the pulse width dependence of the damage threshold probability derived by fitting large beam damage densitymore » data. Multi-shot exposures were used to address lifetime performance degradation described by an empirical expression based on the single exposure damage model. A damage threshold degradation of at least 50% was observed for both materials. Overall, the GaN films tested had 5-10 × higher optical damage thresholds than the ITO films tested for comparable transmission and electrical conductivity. This route to optically robust, large aperture transparent electrodes and power optoelectronics may thus involve use of next generation widegap semiconductors such as GaN.« less

  15. Development of a population-based threshold model of conidial germination for analysing the effects of physiological manipulation on the stress tolerance and infectivity of insect pathogenic fungi.

    PubMed

    Andersen, M; Magan, N; Mead, A; Chandler, D

    2006-09-01

    Entomopathogenic fungi are being used as biocontrol agents of insect pests, but their efficacy can be poor in environments where water availability is reduced. In this study, the potential to improve biocontrol by physiologically manipulating fungal inoculum was investigated. Cultures of Beauveria bassiana, Lecanicillium muscarium, Lecanicillium longisporum, Metarhizium anisopliae and Paecilomyces fumosoroseus were manipulated by growing them under conditions of water stress, which produced conidia with increased concentrations of erythritol. The time-course of germination of conidia at different water activities (water activity, aw) was described using a generalized linear model, and in most cases reducing the water activity of the germination medium delayed the onset of germination without affecting the distribution of germination times. The germination of M. anisopliae, L. muscarium, L. longisporum and P. fumosoroseus was accelerated over a range of aw levels as a result of physiological manipulation. However, the relationship between the effect of physiological manipulation on germination and the osmolyte content of conidia varied according to fungal species. There was a linear relationship between germination rate, expressed as the reciprocal of germination time, and aw of the germination medium, but there was no significant effect of fungal species or physiological manipulation on the aw threshold for germination. In bioassays with M. anisopliae, physiologically manipulated conidia germinated more rapidly on the surface of an insect host, the melon cotton aphid Aphis gossypii, and fungal virulence was increased even when relative humidity was reduced after an initial high period. It is concluded that physiological manipulation may lead to improvements in biocontrol in the field, but choice of fungal species/isolate will be critical. In addition, the population-based threshold model used in this study, which considered germination in terms of physiological

  16. Lifetime effectiveness of mifamurtide addition to chemotherapy in nonmetastatic and metastatic osteosarcoma: a Markov process model analysis.

    PubMed

    Song, Hyun Jin; Lee, Jun Ah; Han, Euna; Lee, Eui-Kyung

    2015-09-01

    The mortality and progression rates in osteosarcoma differ depending on the presence of metastasis. A decision model would be useful for estimating long-term effectiveness of treatment with limited clinical trial data. The aim of this study was to explore the lifetime effectiveness of the addition of mifamurtide to chemotherapy for patients with metastatic and nonmetastatic osteosarcoma. The target population was osteosarcoma patients with or without metastasis. A Markov process model was used, whose time horizon was lifetime with a starting age of 13 years. There were five health states: disease-free (DF), recurrence, post-recurrence disease-free, post-recurrence disease-progression, and death. Transition probabilities of the starting state, DF, were calculated from the INT-0133 clinical trials for chemotherapy with and without mifamurtide. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALY) increased upon addition of mifamurtide to chemotherapy by 10.5 % (10.13 and 9.17 QALY with and without mifamurtide, respectively) and 45.2 % (7.23 and 4.98 QALY with and without mifamurtide, respectively) relative to the lifetime effectiveness of chemotherapy in nonmetastatic and metastatic osteosarcoma, respectively. Life-years gained (LYG) increased by 10.1 % (13.10 LYG with mifamurtide and 11.90 LYG without mifamurtide) in nonmetastatic patients and 42.2 % (9.43 LYG with mifamurtide and 6.63 LYG without mifamurtide) in metastatic osteosarcoma patients. The Markov model analysis showed that chemotherapy with mifamurtide improved the lifetime effectiveness compared to chemotherapy alone in both nonmetastatic and metastatic osteosarcoma. Relative effectiveness of the therapy was higher in metastatic than nonmetastatic osteosarcoma over lifetime. However, absolute lifetime effectiveness was higher in nonmetastatic than metastatic osteosarcoma.

  17. Model-free and model-based methods for dimensional metrology during the lifetime of a product

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Weidner, Peter; Kasic, Alexander; Hingst, Thomas; Ehlers, Carsten; Philipp, Sylke; Marschner, Thomas; Moert, Manfred

    2008-09-01

    For future technology nodes, highly accurate dimensional metrology will become more and more important. At this stage, measuring layer thickness in planar test structures or geometrical dimensions in simplified proxy structures may be not sufficient for accurate control of highly sophisticated process steps. Model-based dimensional metrology has the potential to provide critical parameters of interest for process control in high volume manufacturing, while during process and technology development the constrained flexibility of models and the required model-building efforts may be a serious limitation. On the other hand, model-free dimensional metrology may provide sufficient flexibility for process development, while in some cases it may not be production-worthy in high volume manufacturing. This article details advantages and disadvantages of the different methods during the lifetime of a product starting from early development to high-volume production.

  18. Estimation of iodine nutrition and thyroid function status in late-gestation pregnant women in the United States: Development and application of a population-based pregnancy model.

    PubMed

    Lumen, A; George, N I

    2017-01-01

    Previously, a deterministic biologically-based dose-response (BBDR) pregnancy model was developed to evaluate moderate thyroid axis disturbances with and without thyroid-active chemical exposure in a near-term pregnant woman and fetus. In the current study, the existing BBDR model was adapted to include a wider functional range of iodine nutrition, including more severe iodine deficiency conditions, and to incorporate empirically the effects of homeostatic mechanisms. The extended model was further developed into a population-based model and was constructed using a Monte Carlo-based probabilistic framework. In order to characterize total (T4) and free (fT4) thyroxine levels for a given iodine status at the population-level, the distribution of iodine intake for late-gestation pregnant women in the U.S was reconstructed using various reverse dosimetry methods and available biomonitoring data. The range of median (mean) iodine intake values resulting from three different methods of reverse dosimetry tested was 196.5-219.9μg of iodine/day (228.2-392.9μg of iodine/day). There was minimal variation in model-predicted maternal serum T4 and ft4 thyroxine levels from use of the three reconstructed distributions of iodine intake; the range of geometric mean for T4 and fT4, was 138-151.7nmol/L and 7.9-8.7pmol/L, respectively. The average value of the ratio of the 97.5th percentile to the 2.5th percentile equaled 3.1 and agreed well with similar estimates from recent observations in third-trimester pregnant women in the U.S. In addition, the reconstructed distributions of iodine intake allowed us to estimate nutrient inadequacy for late-gestation pregnant women in the U.S. via the probability approach. The prevalence of iodine inadequacy for third-trimester pregnant women in the U.S. was estimated to be between 21% and 44%. Taken together, the current work provides an improved tool for evaluating iodine nutritional status and the corresponding thyroid function status in

  19. Spatially resolved modeling of the combined effect of dislocations and grain boundaries on minority carrier lifetime in multicrystalline silicon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stokkan, G.; Riepe, S.; Lohne, O.; Warta, W.

    2007-03-01

    A model for the combined effect of dislocations and grain boundaries on minority carrier lifetime has been developed. Lifetime varies with dislocation density, grain boundary misorientation, and the coincidence site lattice (CSL) nature of the boundaries. Minority carrier lifetime was measured with high spatial resolution (50 μm) using the carrier density imaging (CDI) technique on a silicon nitride passivated multicrystalline sample. Dislocation density was measured on the same sample by image recognition of optical microscope pictures of a Secco etched surface. Grain boundaries were then mapped and characterized by electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD). Lifetime was simulated based on the dislocation and grain boundary measurements. Parameters were chosen to match closely the simulated and measured maps. Very good two-dimensional (2D) correlation was obtained by assigning roughly equal importance to recombination at dislocations and grain boundaries. The value for the capture cross section, which gives the best correlation, is 4×10-14 cm-3. This is in the range of values reported for interstitial transition metals like, for instance, iron. It appears necessary to include also the effect of grain boundaries to explain recombination in low lifetime areas. Sub grain boundaries were particularly recombination active and are dominating the number of active grain boundaries.

  20. Endurance degradation and lifetime model of p-channel floating gate flash memory device with 2T structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wei, Jiaxing; Liu, Siyang; Liu, Xiaoqiang; Sun, Weifeng; Liu, Yuwei; Liu, Xiaohong; Hou, Bo

    2017-08-01

    The endurance degradation mechanisms of p-channel floating gate flash memory device with two-transistor (2T) structure are investigated in detail in this work. With the help of charge pumping (CP) measurements and Sentaurus TCAD simulations, the damages in the drain overlap region along the tunnel oxide interface caused by band-to-band (BTB) tunneling programming and the damages in the channel region resulted from Fowler-Nordheim (FN) tunneling erasure are verified respectively. Furthermore, the lifetime model of endurance characteristic is extracted, which can extrapolate the endurance degradation tendency and predict the lifetime of the device.

  1. School performance and the risk of suicidal thoughts in young adults: population-based study.

    PubMed

    Kosidou, Kyriaki; Dalman, Christina; Fredlund, Peeter; Magnusson, Cecilia

    2014-01-01

    Although low school performance is related to attempted and completed suicide, its relationship with suicidal thoughts has been less clear. We conducted a population-based study including 10081 individuals aged 18-29 years in Stockholm, Sweden, and found a clear positive gradient in the risk of lifetime suicidal thoughts with decreasing levels of compulsory school leaving grades. This relationship was somewhat attenuated but remained significant in multivariate models accounting for family background, severe adult psychopathology and adult socioeconomic conditions. School failure is associated with an increased risk of experiencing suicidal thoughts and may also increase the tendency of acting upon them.

  2. Medication Adherence Patterns after Hospitalization for Coronary Heart Disease. A Population-Based Study Using Electronic Records and Group-Based Trajectory Models

    PubMed Central

    Librero, Julián; Sanfélix-Gimeno, Gabriel; Peiró, Salvador

    2016-01-01

    Objective To identify adherence patterns over time and their predictors for evidence-based medications used after hospitalization for coronary heart disease (CHD). Patients and Methods We built a population-based retrospective cohort of all patients discharged after hospitalization for CHD from public hospitals in the Valencia region (Spain) during 2008 (n = 7462). From this initial cohort, we created 4 subcohorts with at least one prescription (filled or not) from each therapeutic group (antiplatelet, beta-blockers, ACEI/ARB, statins) within the first 3 months after discharge. Monthly adherence was defined as having ≥24 days covered out of 30, leading to a repeated binary outcome measure. We assessed the membership to trajectory groups of adherence using group-based trajectory models. We also analyzed predictors of the different adherence patterns using multinomial logistic regression. Results We identified a maximum of 5 different adherence patterns: 1) Nearly-always adherent patients; 2) An early gap in adherence with a later recovery; 3) Brief gaps in medication use or occasional users; 4) A slow decline in adherence; and 5) A fast decline. These patterns represented variable proportions of patients, the descending trajectories being more frequent for the beta-blocker and ACEI/ARB cohorts (16% and 17%, respectively) than the antiplatelet and statin cohorts (10% and 8%, respectively). Predictors of poor or intermediate adherence patterns were having a main diagnosis of unstable angina or other forms of CHD vs. AMI in the index hospitalization, being born outside Spain, requiring copayment or being older. Conclusion Distinct adherence patterns over time and their predictors were identified. This may be a useful approach for targeting improvement interventions in patients with poor adherence patterns. PMID:27551748

  3. Evaluation of the FRAX model for hip fracture predictions in the population-based Kuopio Osteoporosis Risk Factor and Prevention Study (OSTPRE).

    PubMed

    Sund, Reijo; Honkanen, Risto; Johansson, Helena; Odén, Anders; McCloskey, Eugene; Kanis, John; Kröger, Heikki

    2014-07-01

    Calibration of the Finnish FRAX model was evaluated using a locally derived population-based cohort of postmenopausal women (n = 13,917). Hip fractures were observed from national register-based data and verified from radiological records. For a subpopulation of 11,182 women, there were enough data to calculate the fracture probabilities using the Finnish FRAX tool (without bone mineral density). A 10-year period prevalence of hip fractures to this subpopulation was 0.66 %. The expected numbers of hip fractures were significantly higher than the self reported ones (O/E ratio 0.46; 95 % CI 0.33-0.63), had a tendency to be greater than the observed ones (O/E ratio 0.83; 95 % CI 0.65-1.04), and calibration in terms of goodness-of-fit of absolute probabilities was questionable (P = 0.015). Strikingly, the 10-year period prevalence of hip fractures to the whole cohort was higher (0.84 %) than for the women with FRAX measurements (0.66 %). This was mainly the result of difference between people who had and who had not responded to postal enquiries (0.71 vs. 1.77 %, P < 0.0001). Self-reports missed to capture 38 % of all hip fractures in those who responded and about 45 % of hip fractures in women who had a FRAX estimate. The Finnish FRAX tool seems to provide appropriate discrimination for hip fracture risk, but caution is required in the interpretation of absolute risk, especially if used for population that may not be representing general population per se. Our study also showed that patients with no response had significantly higher hip fracture risk and that the use of purely self-reported hip fractures in calculations results in biased incidence and period prevalence estimates. Such important biases may remain unnoticed if there are no data from other sources available.

  4. Estimated incidence of cardiovascular complications related to type 2 diabetes in Mexico using the UKPDS outcome model and a population-based survey

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background To estimate the incidence of complications, life expectancy and diabetes related mortality in the Mexican diabetic population over the next two decades using data from a nation-wide, population based survey and the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) outcome model Methods The cohort included all patients with type 2 diabetes evaluated during the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANut) 2006. ENSANut is a probabilistic multistage stratified survey whose aim was to measure the prevalence of chronic diseases. A total of 47,152 households were visited. Results are shown stratified by gender, time since diagnosis (> or ≤ to 10 years) and age at the time of diagnosis (> or ≤ 40 years). Results The prevalence of diabetes in our cohort was 14.4%. The predicted 20 year-incidence for chronic complications per 1000 individuals are: ischemic heart disease 112, myocardial infarction 260, heart failure 113, stroke 101, and amputation 62. Furthermore, 539 per 1000 patients will have a diabetes-related premature death. The average life expectancy for the diabetic population is 10.9 years (95%CI 10.7-11.2); this decreases to 8.3 years after adjusting for quality of life (CI95% 8.1-8.5). Male sex and cases diagnosed after age 40 have the highest risk for developing at least one major complication during the next 20 years. Conclusions Based on the current clinical profile of Mexican patients with diabetes, the burden of disease related complications will be tremendous over the next two decades. PMID:21214916

  5. Determination of the atmospheric lifetime and global warming potential of sulfur hexafluoride using a three-dimensional model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kovács, Tamás; Feng, Wuhu; Totterdill, Anna; Plane, John M. C.; Dhomse, Sandip; Gómez-Martín, Juan Carlos; Stiller, Gabriele P.; Haenel, Florian J.; Smith, Christopher; Forster, Piers M.; García, Rolando R.; Marsh, Daniel R.; Chipperfield, Martyn P.

    2017-01-01

    We have used the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), with an updated treatment of loss processes, to determine the atmospheric lifetime of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). The model includes the following SF6 removal processes: photolysis, electron attachment and reaction with mesospheric metal atoms. The Sodankylä Ion Chemistry (SIC) model is incorporated into the standard version of WACCM to produce a new version with a detailed D region ion chemistry with cluster ions and negative ions. This is used to determine a latitude- and altitude-dependent scaling factor for the electron density in the standard WACCM in order to carry out multi-year SF6 simulations. The model gives a mean SF6 lifetime over an 11-year solar cycle (τ) of 1278 years (with a range from 1120 to 1475 years), which is much shorter than the currently widely used value of 3200 years, due to the larger contribution (97.4 %) of the modelled electron density to the total atmospheric loss. The loss of SF6 by reaction with mesospheric metal atoms (Na and K) is far too slow to affect the lifetime. We investigate how this shorter atmospheric lifetime impacts the use of SF6 to derive stratospheric age of air. The age of air derived from this shorter lifetime SF6 tracer is longer by 9 % in polar latitudes at 20 km compared to a passive SF6 tracer. We also present laboratory measurements of the infrared spectrum of SF6 and find good agreement with previous studies. We calculate the resulting radiative forcings and efficiencies to be, on average, very similar to those reported previously. Our values for the 20-, 100- and 500-year global warming potentials are 18 000, 23 800 and 31 300, respectively.

  6. Cost-Effectiveness of Orthogeriatric and Fracture Liaison Service Models of Care for Hip Fracture Patients: A Population-Based Study.

    PubMed

    Leal, Jose; Gray, Alastair M; Hawley, Samuel; Prieto-Alhambra, Daniel; Delmestri, Antonella; Arden, Nigel K; Cooper, Cyrus; Javaid, M Kassim; Judge, Andrew

    2017-02-01

    Fracture liaison services are recommended as a model of best practice for organizing patient care and secondary fracture prevention for hip fracture patients, although variation exists in how such services are structured. There is considerable uncertainty as to which model is most cost-effective and should therefore be mandated. This study evaluated the cost- effectiveness of orthogeriatric (OG)- and nurse-led fracture liaison service (FLS) models of post-hip fracture care compared with usual care. Analyses were conducted from a health care and personal social services payer perspective, using a Markov model to estimate the lifetime impact of the models of care. The base-case population consisted of men and women aged 83 years with a hip fracture. The risk and costs of hip and non-hip fractures were derived from large primary and hospital care data sets in the UK. Utilities were informed by a meta-regression of 32 studies. In the base-case analysis, the orthogeriatric-led service was the most effective and cost-effective model of care at a threshold of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life years gained (QALY). For women aged 83 years, the OG-led service was the most cost-effective at £22,709/QALY. If only health care costs are considered, OG-led service was cost-effective at £12,860/QALY and £14,525/QALY for women and men aged 83 years, respectively. Irrespective of how patients were stratified in terms of their age, sex, and Charlson comorbidity score at index hip fracture, our results suggest that introducing an orthogeriatrician-led or a nurse-led FLS is cost-effective when compared with usual care. Although considerable uncertainty remains concerning which of the models of care should be preferred, introducing an orthogeriatrician-led service seems to be the most cost-effective service to pursue. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

  7. Tryptophan Rotamers as Evidenced by X-Ray, Fluorescence Lifetimes, and Molecular Dynamics Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Moors, Samuel L. C.; Hellings, Mario; De Maeyer, Marc; Engelborghs, Yves; Ceulemans, Arnout

    2006-01-01

    We investigated the native-state dynamics of the Bacillus caldolyticus cold-shock protein mutant Bc-Csp L66E, using fluorescence and appropriate molecular dynamics methods. Two fluorescence lifetimes were found, the amplitudes of which agree very well with tryptophan rotamer populations, obtained from parallel tempering calculations. Rotamer lifetimes were predicted by transition-state theory from high-temperature simulations. Transition pathways were extracted from the transition rates between individual rotameric states. The molecular dynamics also reveal the loop fluctuations in the native state. PMID:16698786

  8. Calculation of lifetime lung cancer risks associated with radon exposure, based on various models and exposure scenarios.

    PubMed

    Hunter, Nezahat; Muirhead, Colin R; Bochicchio, Francesco; Haylock, Richard G E

    2015-09-01

    The risk of lung cancer mortality up to 75 years of age due to radon exposure has been estimated for both male and female continuing, ex- and never-smokers, based on various radon risk models and exposure scenarios. We used risk models derived from (i) the BEIR VI analysis of cohorts of radon-exposed miners, (ii) cohort and nested case-control analyses of a European cohort of uranium miners and (iii) the joint analysis of European residential radon case-control studies. Estimates of the lifetime lung cancer risk due to radon varied between these models by just over a factor of 2 and risk estimates based on models from analyses of European uranium miners exposed at comparatively low rates and of people exposed to radon in homes were broadly compatible. For a given smoking category, there was not much difference in lifetime lung cancer risk between males and females. The estimated lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer for exposure to a concentration of 200 Bq m(-3) was in the range 2.98-6.55% for male continuing smokers and 0.19-0.42% for male never-smokers, depending on the model used and assuming a multiplicative relationship for the joint effect of radon and smoking. Stopping smoking at age 50 years decreases the lifetime risk due to radon by around a half relative to continuing smoking, but the risk for ex-smokers remains about a factor of 5-7 higher than that for never-smokers. Under a sub-multiplicative model for the joint effect of radon and smoking, the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer was still estimated to be substantially higher for continuing smokers than for never smokers. Radon mitigation-used to reduce radon concentrations at homes-can also have a substantial impact on lung cancer risk, even for persons in their 50 s; for each of continuing smokers, ex-smokers and never-smokers, radon mitigation at age 50 would lower the lifetime risk of radon-induced lung cancer by about one-third. To maximise risk reductions, smokers in high

  9. A predictive model for risk of prehypertension and hypertension and expected benefit after population-based life-style modification (KCIS No. 24).

    PubMed

    Tseng, Chuen-Den; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Chen, Li-Sheng; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Chang, Shu-Hui

    2012-02-01

    Few reports have identified and quantified significant risk factors responsible for multistate natural course of progression to hypertension and also regression of prehypertension to normal, which provides baseline risks to estimate the size of expected benefit derived from population-based life-style modification. Data used for estimating clinical parameters governing temporal natural course of hypertension are derived from 42,027 participants attending screening annually between 1999 and 2002. Information on transition history between normal, prehypertension, stage 1 and stage 2 hypertension between screens was therefore collected to compute multistep composite risk scores without intervention program. The expected benefits of risk reduction in prehypertension and hypertension under different intervention programs by modifying the related risk factors from abnormal to normal ranges were estimated. The majority of risk factors play a more remarkable role in prehypertension and stage 1 hypertension but less in stage 2 hypertension. The greater the number of risk factors included in the intervention programs becomes, the lower the mean risk score is expected to achieve. The 5-year predicted cumulative risk for stage 2 hypertension decreased from 23.6% in the absence of intervention program to 14% with the provision of "six-component intervention" in men. The results were similar for women. Multiple risk factors responsible for multistep transitions between prehypertension and hypertension were identified by using population-based screening data to derive multistep composite risk scores, which are useful for the expected benefit of reducing risk of hypertension by providing population-based life-style modification.

  10. Historical human exposure to perfluoroalkyl acids in the United States and Australia reconstructed from biomonitoring data using population-based pharmacokinetic modelling.

    PubMed

    Gomis, Melissa I; Vestergren, Robin; MacLeod, Matthew; Mueller, Jochen F; Cousins, Ian T

    2017-08-14

    Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorohexanesulfonic acid (PFHxS) are found in the blood of humans and wildlife worldwide. Since the beginning of the 21st century, a downward trend in the human body burden, especially for PFOS and PFOA, has been observed while there is no clear temporal trend in wildlife. The inconsistency between the concentration decline in human serum and in wildlife could be indicative of a historical exposure pathway for humans linked to consumer products that has been reduced or eliminated. In this study, we reconstruct the past human exposure trends in two different regions, USA and Australia, by inferring the historical intake from cross-sectional biomonitoring data of PFOS, PFOA and PFHxS using a population-based pharmacokinetic model. For PFOS in the USA, the reconstructed daily intake peaked at 4.5ng/kg-bw/day between 1988 and 1999 while in Australia it peaked at 4.0ng/kg-bw/day between 1984 and 1996. For PFOA in the USA and Australia, the peak reconstructed daily intake was 1.1ng/kg-bw/day in 1995 and 3.6ng/kg-bw/day in 1992, respectively, and started to decline in 2000 and 1995, respectively. The model could not be satisfactorily fitted to the biomonitoring data for PFHxS within reasonable boundaries for its intrinsic elimination half-life, and thus reconstructing intakes of PFHxS was not possible. Our results indicate that humans experienced similar exposure levels and trends to PFOS and PFOA in the USA and Australia. Our findings support the hypothesis that near-field consumer product exposure pathways were likely dominant prior to the phase-out in industrialized countries. The intrinsic elimination half-life, which represents elimination processes that are common for all humans, and elimination processes unique to women (i.e., menstruation, cord-blood transfer and breastfeeding) were also investigated. The intrinsic elimination half-lives for PFOS and PFOA derived from model fitting for men

  11. Desired lifetime and end-of-life desires across adulthood from 20 to 90: a dual-source information model.

    PubMed

    Lang, Frieder R; Baltes, Paul B; Wagner, Gert G

    2007-09-01

    How long do people want to live, and how does scientific research on aging affect such desires? A dual-source information model proposes that aging expectations and desires are informed differently by two sources: personal experiences on the one hand, and scientific and societal influences on the other. Two studies with independent German national samples explored desires regarding length of life and end of life among adults between the ages of 20 and 90. FINDINGS ARE: First, desired lifetime is consistent at around 85 years with few age differences. Second, experimental induction of good or bad news from research on aging has little effect in Study 1. Third, interest in science has moderating effects on desired lifetime in Study 2. Fourth, there is a high prevalence of a strong desire to control the "when and how" of one's death, although only 11% of the individuals completed a living will. Findings are consistent with the dual-source information model.

  12. Anomalous higher frequency component of ISSN and relationship between sunspot lifetime and their birthrate: explanation with an AR-1 model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shapoval, Alexander; Le Mouël, Jean-Louis; Shnirman, Mikhail; Courtillot, Vincent

    2017-04-01

    The higher frequency (HF) component of the daily ISSN time-series contributed anomalously weakly to total energy during the last epoch of high solar activity (lower boundary of HF component taken as 3-6 days). To explain this anomaly, we model the daily ISSN as an autoregressive process of order one, with a noise component modulated by the ˜ 11-yr cycle. We link the observed anomaly to positive correlations between the "births" of sunspots in nearby locations when solar activity is high. We also analyze the relationship between birth rate of sunspots and their average lifetime. Our findings support the hypothesis that, on day-to-month scales, solar proxies reflect the solar dynamo itself, accompanied by modulated noise and effects linked to solar rotation. Representing solar activity as a combination of sunspot lifetime and intensity of sunspot births should narrow choices of solar dynamo models.

  13. The Atmospheric Muon Lifetime, with the Lead Absorption Potential for Muons and References to the Standard Model of Particle Physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barazandeh, Cioli; Gutarra-Leon, Angel; Majewski, Walerian

    2017-01-01

    Muon is one of twelve fundamental particles and has the longest free-particle lifetime. It decays into three leptons through an exchange of weak vector bosons W +/W-. Muons are present in atmospheric secondary cosmic rays and reach the sea level. By detecting the time delay between arrival of muons and appearance of decay electrons in a scintillation detector, we will measure muon's lifetime at rest. From the lifetime we can find the ratio gw /MW of the weak coupling constant gw (a weak analog of the electric charge) to mass of the W-boson MW. Vacuum expectation value v of the Higgs field, which determines masses Standard Model (SM) particles, can be calculated as v =2MWc2/gw =(τmμc2/6π3\\hcirc)1/4mμc2 regarding muon mass mμ and muon lifetime τ only. Using the experimental value for MWc2 = 80.4 GeV, we will find weak coupling constant gw. With the SM relation e =gwsin θ√ hcε0 and experimental value of the Z0-photon weak mixing angle θ = 29o we use our muon lifetime to find the elementary electric charge e value. In this experiment we will also determine the sea level fluxes of low-energy (<160 MeV) and high-energy cosmic muons, then will shield the detector with varying thicknesses of lead plates and from the new values of fluxes find the energy-dependent muon stopping power in lead.

  14. Using a combined population-based and kinetic modelling approach to assess timescales and durations of magma migration activities prior to the 1669 flank eruption of Mt. Etna

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kahl, M.; Morgan, D. J.; Viccaro, M.; Dingwell, D. B.

    2015-12-01

    The March-July eruption of Mt. Etna in 1669 is ranked as one of the most destructive and voluminous eruptions of Etna volcano in historical times. To assess threats from future eruptions, a better understanding of how and over what timescales magma moved underground prior to and during the 1669 eruption is required. We present a combined population based and kinetic modelling approach [1-2] applied to 185 olivine crystals that erupted during the 1669 eruption. By means of this approach we provide, for the first time, a dynamic picture of magma mixing and magma migration activity prior to and during the 1669 flank eruption of Etna volcano. Following the work of [3] we have studied 10 basaltic lava samples (five SET1 and five SET2 samples) that were erupted from different fissures that opened between 950 and 700 m a.s.l. Following previous work [1-2] we were able to classify different populations of olivine based on their overall core and rim compositional record and the prevalent zoning type (i.e. normal vs. reverse). The core plateau compositions of the SET1 and SET2 olivines range from Fo70 up to Fo83 with a single peak at Fo75-76. The rims differ significantly and can be distinguished into two different groups. Olivine rims from the SET1 samples are generally more evolved and range from Fo50 to Fo64 with a maximum at Fo55-57. SET2 olivine rims vary between Fo65-75 with a peak at Fo69. SET1 and SET2 olivines display normal zonation with cores at Fo75-76 and diverging rim records (Fo55-57 and Fo65-75). The diverging core and rim compositions recorded in the SET1 and SET2 olivines can be attributed to magma evolution possibly in three different magmatic environments (MEs): M1 (=Fo75-76), M2 (=Fo69) and M3 (=Fo55-57) with magma transfer and mixing amongst them. The MEs established in this study differ slightly from those identified in previous works [1-2]. We note the relative lack of olivines with Fo-rich core and rim compositions indicating a major mafic magma

  15. Modeled black carbon radiative forcing and atmospheric lifetime in AeroCom Phase II constrained by aircraft observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Herber, A.; Kondo, Y.; Li, S.-M.; Moteki, N.; Koike, M.; Oshima, N.; Schwarz, J. P.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S. E.; Bellouin, N.; Berntsen, T. K.; Bian, H.; Chin, M.; Diehl, T.; Easter, R. C.; Ghan, S. J.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevåg, A.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lin, G.; Liu, X.; Penner, J. E.; Schulz, M.; Seland, Ø.; Skeie, R. B.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Tsigaridis, K.; Zhang, K.

    2014-08-01

    Atmospheric black carbon (BC) absorbs solar radiation, and exacerbates global warming through exerting positive radiative forcing (RF). However, the contribution of BC to ongoing changes in global climate is under debate. Anthropogenic BC emissions, and the resulting distribution of BC concentration, are highly uncertain. In particular, long range transport and processes affecting BC atmospheric lifetime are poorly understood. Here we discuss whether recent assessments may have overestimated present day BC radiative forcing in remote regions. We compare vertical profiles of BC concentration from four recent aircraft measurement campaigns to simulations by 13 aerosol models participating in the AeroCom Phase II intercomparision. An atmospheric lifetime of BC of less than 5 days is shown to be essential for reproducing observations in remote ocean regions, in line with other recent studies. Adjusting model results to measurements in remote regions, and at high altitudes, leads to a 25% reduction in AeroCom Phase II median direct BC forcing, from fossil fuel and biofuel burning, over the industrial era. The sensitivity of modeled forcing to BC vertical profile and lifetime highlights an urgent need for further flight campaigns, close to sources and in remote regions, to provide improved quantification of BC effects for use in climate policy.

  16. Modelled black carbon radiative forcing and atmospheric lifetime in AeroCom Phase II constrained by aircraft observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Herber, A.; Kondo, Y.; Li, S.-M.; Moteki, N.; Koike, M.; Oshima, N.; Schwarz, J. P.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S. E.; Bellouin, N.; Berntsen, T. K.; Bian, H.; Chin, M.; Diehl, T.; Easter, R. C.; Ghan, S. J.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevåg, A.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lin, G.; Liu, X.; Penner, J. E.; Schulz, M.; Seland, Ø.; Skeie, R. B.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Tsigaridis, K.; Zhang, K.

    2014-11-01

    Atmospheric black carbon (BC) absorbs solar radiation, and exacerbates global warming through exerting positive radiative forcing (RF). However, the contribution of BC to ongoing changes in global climate is under debate. Anthropogenic BC emissions, and the resulting distribution of BC concentration, are highly uncertain. In particular, long-range transport and processes affecting BC atmospheric lifetime are poorly understood. Here we discuss whether recent assessments may have overestimated present-day BC radiative forcing in remote regions. We compare vertical profiles of BC concentration from four recent aircraft measurement campaigns to simulations by 13 aerosol models participating in the AeroCom Phase II intercomparison. An atmospheric lifetime of BC of less than 5 days is shown to be essential for reproducing observations in remote ocean regions, in line with other recent studies. Adjusting model results to measurements in remote regions, and at high altitudes, leads to a 25% reduction in AeroCom Phase II median direct BC forcing, from fossil fuel and biofuel burning, over the industrial era. The sensitivity of modelled forcing to BC vertical profile and lifetime highlights an urgent need for further flight campaigns, close to sources and in remote regions, to provide improved quantification of BC effects for use in climate policy.

  17. Chasing quicksilver: modeling the atmospheric lifetime of Hg(0)(g) in the marine boundary layer at various latitudes.

    PubMed

    Hedgecock, Ian M; Pirrone, Nicola

    2004-01-01

    The lifetime of elemental mercury in the marine boundary layer(MBL) has been studied using AMCOTS (Atmospheric Mercury Chemistry Over The Sea), a box model of MBL photochemistry including aerosols and detailed mercury chemistry. Recently measured Hg(0)(g) oxidation reactions have been included, and the studies were performed as a function of latitude, time of year, boundary layer liquid water content (LWC) and cloud optical depth. The results show that Hg has the shortest lifetime when air temperatures are low and sunlight and deliquescent aerosol particles are plentiful. Thus the modeled lifetime for clear-sky conditions is actually shorter at mid-latitudes and high latitudes than near the equator, and for a given latitude and time of year, cooler temperatures enhance the rate of Hg oxidation. Under typical summer conditions (for a given latitude) of temperature and cloudiness, the lifetime (tau) of Hg(0)(g) in the MBL is calculated to be around 10 days at all latitudes between the equator and 60 degrees N. This is much shorter than the generally accepted atmospheric residence time for Hg(0)(g) of a year or more. Given the relatively stable background concentrations of Hg(0)(g) which have been measured, continual replenishment of Hg(0)(g) must take place, suggesting a "multihop" mechanism for the distribution of Hg, rather than solely aeolian transport with little or no chemical transformation between source and receptor. Inclusion of an empirical Hg(0)(g) emission factor related to insolation was used to stabilize the Hg(0)(g) concentration in the model, and the emission rates necessarily agree well with estimated emission fluxes for the open ocean.

  18. Employment of Mixed Layer Models and Large Eddy Simulations to Determine the Factors Controlling Stratocumulus Cloud Lifetime over the Coast

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghonima, M. S.; Heus, T.; Norris, J. R.; Kleissl, J. P.

    2015-12-01

    Summertime marine boundary layer stratocumulus (Sc) clouds have a strong impact on ecology and infrastructure over the coast of California. Modeling the lifetime of such clouds in global climate models (GCM) or numerical weather prediction models (NWP) is difficult and significant errors are typically observed. For instance, stratocumulus clouds over the coast of southern California in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model were found to dissipate, on average, 1.9 hours earlier than observed via satellite. In order to determine the factors controlling the Sc lifetime, we have employed large eddy simulations (LES) and a mixed layer model (MLM). Enhancements to previous MLMs include a temperature dependent radiation scheme, a land surface model, and a novel entrainment parameterization scheme for stratocumulus clouds over land in which the entrainment velocity is derived as a function of the surface buoyancy flux and the buoyancy flux integrated over the cloud layer. The advantage of using the MLM is that different mechanisms and feedbacks controlling stratocumulus cloud thickness can be examined rapidly through sensitivity studies. We find that during the night cloud lifetime is modulated by longwave cooling of the boundary layer and entrainment flux warming and drying. During the day, surface shortwave radiative heating drives surface flux therefore increasing the turbulence within the boundary layer and increasing entrainment flux. For wet surface conditions, the increase in latent heat flux moistens the boundary layer and offsets the increase in entrainment flux warming and drying of the boundary layer and clouds persist throughout the day. For dry surface conditions, the combination of increased surface sensible heat flux warming the boundary layer and increased entrainment flux act to dissipate the cloud within a couple of hours after sunrise. For both cases, the sea breeze advects cool ocean air that acts to thicken and prolong the cloud lifetime

  19. Lifetime Evaluation of Oil-immersed Power Capacitor using Conversion Factor between Model Sample and Practical Equipment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Higashiyama, Masakazu; Akiyama, Ken-Ichi; Maeda, Teruhiko; Nakamura, Shuhei; Umemura, Hiro; Hikita, Masayuki

    In this paper, the lifetime estimation method was discussed in view of Weibull distribution. For the case of power capacitor, the conversion factor between model specimen and practical equipment can be calculated by using the ratio of the electrode edge length of them and the Weibull shape parameter of the normalized V-t data obtained from the model samples. The actual failure rate of the power capacitor with PP film/capacitor-paper composite dielectric system was found to agree well with the estimated failure rate from the model samples.

  20. Cost effectiveness of trastuzumab in the adjuvant treatment of early breast cancer: a lifetime model.

    PubMed

    Millar, J Alasdair; Millward, Michael J

    2007-01-01

    Recent randomised trials have demonstrated a statistically significant effect of trastuzumab on disease-free survival when used as adjuvant therapy for human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 protein (HER2)-positive resectable early stage breast cancer, with a treatment course lasting either 9 or 52 weeks. However, the cost effectiveness of adjuvant trastuzumab with respect to mortality remains uncertain, especially in an Australian setting. To estimate the cost effectiveness of trastuzumab in Australia, in a cohort of 50-year-old patients with HER2-positive breast cancer over a lifetime, using (i) disease-free survival and cardiotoxicity data from recent randomised trials; (ii) information on long-term survival of patients with treated primary breast cancer; and (iii) costs of treating local and distant relapses and disease from causes other than breast cancer. A Markov model consisting of four health states (remission, loco-regional recurrence, metastatic disease and death) was developed. Transition probabilities corresponded to patterns of relapse and metastases seen in recent trials. The model was run until age 100 years to allow calculation of average survival. Outcome measures were life-years and QALYs (calculated using utility weights reported in the literature). The model was calibrated to reflect literature evidence that the risk of breast cancer recurrence following primary treatment diminishes progressively to zero after about 20 years. It was assumed that the morbidity benefit of trastuzumab observed in trials would be present for 5 years but would then diminish progressively to zero after 8 years. Costs (year 2005 values) and benefits were discounted at 3% per annum. For every 1000 patients treated with a 52-week course of trastuzumab, there were 136 fewer breast cancer deaths (relative risk reduction 28%). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were Australian dollars ($ A)13 730 per year of life saved (YOLS) and $ A22 793 per QALY. The

  1. Evidence for an increase in the ozone photochemical lifetime in the eastern United States using a regional air quality model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Goldberg, Daniel L.; Vinciguerra, Timothy P.; Hosley, Kyle M.; Loughner, Christopher P.; Canty, Timothy P.; Salawitch, Ross J.; Dickerson, Russell R.

    2015-12-01

    Measures to control surface ozone rely on quantifying production attributable to local versus regional (upwind) emissions. Here we simulate the relative contribution of local (i.e., within a particular state) and regional sources of surface ozone in the eastern United States (66-94°W longitude) for July 2002, 2011, and 2018 using the Comprehensive Air-quality Model with Extensions (CAMx). To determine how emissions and chemistry within the domain affect the production, loss, lifetime, and transport of trace gases, we initialize our model with identical boundary conditions in each simulation. We find that the photochemical lifetime of ozone has increased as emissions have decreased. The contribution of ozone from outside the domain (boundary condition ozone, BCO3) to local surface mixing ratios increases in an absolute sense by 1-2 ppbv between 2002 and 2018 due to the longer lifetime of ozone. The photochemical lifetime of ozone lengthens because the two primary gas phase sinks for odd oxygen (Ox ≈ NO2 + O3)—attack by hydroperoxyl radicals (HO2) on ozone and formation of nitrate—weaken with decreasing pollutant emissions. The relative role of BCO3 will also increase. For example, BCO3 represents 34.5%, 38.8%, and 43.6% of surface ozone in the Baltimore, MD, region during July 2002, 2011, and 2018 means, respectively. This unintended consequence of air quality regulation impacts attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard for surface ozone because the spatial and temporal scales of photochemical smog increase; the influence of pollutants transported between states and into the eastern U.S. will likely play a greater role in the future.

  2. Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peterson, L. E.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Wilson, J. W. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence

  3. Monte Carlo mixture model of lifetime cancer incidence risk from radiation exposure on shuttle and international space station

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peterson, L. E.; Cucinotta, F. A.; Wilson, J. W. (Principal Investigator)

    1999-01-01

    Estimating uncertainty in lifetime cancer risk for human exposure to space radiation is a unique challenge. Conventional risk assessment with low-linear-energy-transfer (LET)-based risk from Japanese atomic bomb survivor studies may be inappropriate for relativistic protons and nuclei in space due to track structure effects. This paper develops a Monte Carlo mixture model (MCMM) for transferring additive, National Institutes of Health multiplicative, and multiplicative excess cancer incidence risks based on Japanese atomic bomb survivor data to determine excess incidence risk for various US astronaut exposure profiles. The MCMM serves as an anchor point for future risk projection methods involving biophysical models of DNA damage from space radiation. Lifetime incidence risks of radiation-induced cancer for the MCMM based on low-LET Japanese data for nonleukemia (all cancers except leukemia) were 2.77 (90% confidence limit, 0.75-11.34) for males exposed to 1 Sv at age 45 and 2.20 (90% confidence limit, 0.59-10.12) for males exposed at age 55. For females, mixture model risks for nonleukemia exposed separately to 1 Sv at ages of 45 and 55 were 2.98 (90% confidence limit, 0.90-11.70) and 2.44 (90% confidence limit, 0.70-10.30), respectively. Risks for high-LET 200 MeV protons (LET=0.45 keV/micrometer), 1 MeV alpha-particles (LET=100 keV/micrometer), and 600 MeV iron particles (LET=180 keV/micrometer) were scored on a per particle basis by determining the particle fluence required for an average of one particle per cell nucleus of area 100 micrometer(2). Lifetime risk per proton was 2.68x10(-2)% (90% confidence limit, 0.79x10(-3)%-0. 514x10(-2)%). For alpha-particles, lifetime risk was 14.2% (90% confidence limit, 2.5%-31.2%). Conversely, lifetime risk per iron particle was 23.7% (90% confidence limit, 4.5%-53.0%). Uncertainty in the DDREF for high-LET particles may be less than that for low-LET radiation because typically there is very little dose-rate dependence

  4. Coupled modeling of the competitive gettering of transition metals and impact on performance of lifetime sensitive devices

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yazdani, Armin; Chen, Renyu; Dunham, Scott T.

    2017-03-01

    This work models competitive gettering of metals (Cu, Ni, Fe, Mo, and W) by boron, phosphorus, and dislocation loops, and connects those results directly to device performance. Density functional theory calculations were first performed to determine the binding energies of metals to the gettering sites, and based on that, continuum models were developed to model the redistribution and trapping of the metals. Our models found that Fe is most strongly trapped by the dislocation loops while Cu and Ni are most strongly trapped by the P4V clusters formed in high phosphorus concentrations. In addition, it is found that none of the mentioned gettering sites are effective in gettering Mo and W. The calculated metal redistribution along with the associated capture cross sections and trap energy levels are passed to device simulation via the recombination models to calculate carrier lifetime and the resulting device performance. Thereby, a comprehensive and predictive TCAD framework is developed to optimize the processing conditions to maximize performance of lifetime sensitive devices.

  5. Effects of Orbital Lifetime Reduction on the Long-Term Earth Satellite Population as Modeled by EVOLVE 4.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Krisko, Paula H.; Opiela, John N.; Liou, Jer-Chyi; Anz-Meador, Phillip D.; Theall, Jeffrey R.

    1999-01-01

    The latest update of the NASA orbital debris environment model, EVOLVE 4.0, has been used to study the effect of various proposed debris mitigation measures, including the NASA 25-year guideline. EVOLVE 4.0, which includes updates of the NASA breakup, solar activity, and the orbit propagator models, a GEO analysis option, and non-fragmentation debris source models, allows for the statistical modeling and predicted growth of the particle population >1 mm in characteristic length in LEO and GEO orbits. The initial implementation of this &odel has been to study the sensitivity of the overall LEO debris environment to mitigation measures designed to limit the lifetime of intact objects in LEO orbits. The mitigation measures test matrix for this study included several commonly accepted testing schemes, i.e., the variance of the maximum LEO lifetime from 10 to 50 years, the date of the initial implementation of this policy, the shut off of all explosions at some specified date, and the inclusion of disposal orbits. All are timely studies in that all scenarios have been suggested by researchers and satellite operators as options for the removal of debris from LEO orbits.

  6. Modeling lifetime costs and health outcomes attributable to secondhand smoke exposure at home among Korean adult women.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jiyae; Han, Ah Ram; Choi, Dalwoong; Lim, Kyung-Min; Bae, SeungJin

    2017-05-17

    The aim of this research is to estimate lifetime costs and health consequences for Korean adult women who were exposed to secondhand smoke (SHS) at home. A Markov model was developed to project the lifetime healthcare costs and health outcomes of a hypothetical cohort of Korean women who are 40 years old and were married to current smokers. The Korean epidemiological data were used to reflect the natural history of SHS-exposed and non-exposed women. The direct healthcare costs (in 2014 US dollars) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were annually discounted at 5% to reflect time preference. The time horizon of the analysis was lifetime and the cycle length was 1 year. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. In the absence of SHS exposure, Korean women will live 41.32 years or 34.56 QALYs before discount, which corresponded to 17.29 years or 15.35 QALYs after discount. The SHS-exposed women were predicted to live 37.91 years and 31.08 QALYs before discount and 16.76 years and 14.62 QALYs after discount. The estimated lifetime healthcare cost per woman in the SHS non-exposed group was US$11 214 before the discount and US$2465 after discount. The negative impact of SHS exposure on health outcomes and healthcare costs escalated as the time horizon increased, suggesting that the adverse impact of SHS exposure may have higher impact on the later part of the lifetime. The result was consistent across a wide range of assumptions. Life expectancy might underestimate the impact of SHS exposure on health outcomes, especially if the time horizon of the analysis is not long enough. Early intervention on smoking behaviour could substantially reduce direct healthcare costs and improve quality of life attributable to SHS exposure. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  7. Neutron lifetimes behavior analysis considering the two-region kinetic model in the IPEN/MB-01 reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Gonnelli, Eduardo; Diniz, Ricardo

    2014-11-11

    This is a complementary work about the behavior analysis of the neutron lifetimes that was developed in the IPEN/MB-01 nuclear reactor facility. The macroscopic neutron noise technique was experimentally employed using pulse mode detectors for two stages of control rods insertion, where a total of twenty levels of subcriticality have been carried out. It was also considered that the neutron reflector density was treated as an additional group of delayed neutrons, being a sophisticated approach in the two-region kinetic theoretical model.

  8. Modeling the expected lifetime and evolution of a deme's principal genetic sequence.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clark, Brian

    2014-03-01

    The principal genetic sequence (PGS) is the most common genetic sequence in a deme. The PGS changes over time because new genetic sequences are created by inversions, compete with the current PGS, and a small fraction become PGSs. A set of coupled difference equations provides a description of the evolution of the PGS distribution function in an ensemble of demes. Solving the set of equations produces the survival probability of a new genetic sequence and the expected lifetime of an existing PGS as a function of inversion size and rate, recombination rate, and deme size. Additionally, the PGS distribution function is used to explain the transition pathway from old to new PGSs. We compare these results to a cellular automaton based representation of a deme and the drosophila species, D. melanogaster and D. yakuba.

  9. Modelled Black Carbon Radiative Forcing and Atmospheric Lifetime in AeroCom Phase II Constrained by Aircraft Observations

    SciTech Connect

    Samset, B. H.; Myhre, G.; Herber, Andreas; Kondo, Yutaka; Li, Shao-Meng; Moteki, N.; Koike, Makoto; Oshima, N.; Schwarz, Joshua P.; Balkanski, Y.; Bauer, S.; Bellouin, N.; Berntsen, T.; Bian, Huisheng; Chin, M.; Diehl, Thomas; Easter, Richard C.; Ghan, Steven J.; Iversen, T.; Kirkevag, A.; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lin, Guang; Liu, Xiaohong; Penner, Joyce E.; Schulz, M.; Seland, O.; Skeie, R. B.; Stier, P.; Takemura, T.; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Zhang, Kai

    2014-11-27

    Black carbon (BC) aerosols absorb solar radiation, and are generally held to exacerbate global warming through exerting a positive radiative forcing1. However, the total contribution of BC to the ongoing changes in global climate is presently under debate2-8. Both anthropogenic BC emissions and the resulting spatial and temporal distribution of BC concentration are highly uncertain2,9. In particular, long range transport and processes affecting BC atmospheric lifetime are poorly understood, leading to large estimated uncertainty in BC concentration at high altitudes and far from emission sources10. These uncertainties limit our ability to quantify both the historical, present and future anthropogenic climate impact of BC. Here we compare vertical profiles of BC concentration from four recent aircraft measurement campaigns with 13 state of the art aerosol models, and show that recent assessments may have overestimated present day BC radiative forcing. Further, an atmospheric lifetime of BC of less than 5 days is shown to be essential for reproducing observations in transport dominated remote regions. Adjusting model results to measurements in remote regions, and at high altitudes, leads to a 25% reduction in the multi-model median direct BC forcing from fossil fuel and biofuel burning over the industrial era.

  10. Simulating star clusters with the AMUSE software framework. I. Dependence of cluster lifetimes on model assumptions and cluster dissolution modes

    SciTech Connect

    Whitehead, Alfred J.; McMillan, Stephen L. W.; Vesperini, Enrico; Portegies Zwart, Simon

    2013-12-01

    We perform a series of simulations of evolving star clusters using the Astrophysical Multipurpose Software Environment (AMUSE), a new community-based multi-physics simulation package, and compare our results to existing work. These simulations model a star cluster beginning with a King model distribution and a selection of power-law initial mass functions and contain a tidal cutoff. They are evolved using collisional stellar dynamics and include mass loss due to stellar evolution. After studying and understanding that the differences between AMUSE results and results from previous studies are understood, we explored the variation in cluster lifetimes due to the random realization noise introduced by transforming a King model to specific initial conditions. This random realization noise can affect the lifetime of a simulated star cluster by up to 30%. Two modes of star cluster dissolution were identified: a mass evolution curve that contains a runaway cluster dissolution with a sudden loss of mass, and a dissolution mode that does not contain this feature. We refer to these dissolution modes as 'dynamical' and 'relaxation' dominated, respectively. For Salpeter-like initial mass functions, we determined the boundary between these two modes in terms of the dynamical and relaxation timescales.

  11. A model for predicting the wearout lifetime of the LeRC/Hughes 30-cm mercury ion thruster

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beattie, J. R.

    1979-01-01

    An investigation of parameters that affect the erosion rates of 30-cm-diameter mercury-ion-thruster components is described. A sputter-erosion model is formulated in terms of the design, operational, and material characteristics of the thruster. The erosion model is applied to the screen electrode, which is assumed to be the life-limiting component of the 30-cm thruster, resulting in a model of wearout lifetime. Results of short-term erosion-rate tests are presented that illustrate the dependence of component wear rates on variables such as discharge voltage, accelerator-grid open-area fraction, ion energy, electrode material, and the partial pressure of facility residual gases such as nitrogen. Test results are compared with wearout rates predicted by the sputter-erosion model.

  12. Collisional lifetimes of meteoroids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soja, R. H.; Schwarzkopf, G. J.; Sommer, M.; Vaubaillon, J.; Albin, T.; Rodmann, J.; Grün, E.; Srama, R.

    2016-01-01

    Collisions of meteoroids with interplanetary dust grain fragments particles, dispersing larger particles amongst lower mass intervals. Here we use the method of Grün et al. (1985) and the IMEM interplanetary dust model to calculate the collisional lifetimes for different orbits, and for particles in different meteor showers. The timescales are usually long - of order 10^4 years for 1mm grains on Jupiter-family and Hally-type comet orbits. However, near-sun orbits particles suffer more frequent collisions and therefore have much shorter lifetimes. We discuss factors that affect the accuracy of these calculations.

  13. OL- ORBITAL LIFETIME PROGRAM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orr, L. H.

    1994-01-01

    The Orbital Lifetime (OL) program analyzes the long-term motion of Earth-orbiting spacecraft at altitudes of up to 2500 kilometers. It models perturbations to the orbit caused by solar radiation pressure, atmospheric drag, and gravitational effects due to the sun, the moon, and Earth oblateness. OL can be used to predict the orbital lifetime and decay rate of a satellite. The atmospheric density models used in OL are the U.S. Standard Atmosphere for altitudes below 90 km and the Jacchia model for altitudes above 90 km. The Jacchia model requires solar flux and geomagnetic index for the date of orbit. An input file containing these values for 1984 to 1998 is supplied with the OL package. The solar radiation pressure calculations in OL will predict the amount of time a spacecraft is subjected to the Earth's shadow. Input to OL includes spacecraft physical characteristics, initial orbit parameters, and launch date/time. OL calculates time histories of the orbital elements, total lifetime, and decay rates. A spacecraft is considered 'down' at an altitude of 64 km. OL also generates a file of plot data which can be input to a user-supplied graphics program for lifetime plots of altitude against time. OL is written in FORTRAN 77 for interactive or batch execution and has been implemented on a DEC VAX series computer operating under VMS. This program was developed in 1985.

  14. Robust Bayesian Fluorescence Lifetime Estimation, Decay Model Selection and Instrument Response Determination for Low-Intensity FLIM Imaging.

    PubMed

    Rowley, Mark I; Coolen, Anthonius C C; Vojnovic, Borivoj; Barber, Paul R

    2016-01-01

    We present novel Bayesian methods for the analysis of exponential decay data that exploit the evidence carried by every detected decay event and enables robust extension to advanced processing. Our algorithms are presented in the context of fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) and particular attention has been paid to model the time-domain system (based on time-correlated single photon counting) with unprecedented accuracy. We present estimates of decay parameters for mono- and bi-exponential systems, offering up to a factor of two improvement in accuracy compared to previous popular techniques. Results of the analysis of synthetic and experimental data are presented, and areas where the superior precision of our techniques can be exploited in Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) experiments are described. Furthermore, we demonstrate two advanced processing methods: decay model selection to choose between differing models such as mono- and bi-exponential, and the simultaneous estimation of instrument and decay parameters.

  15. Robust Bayesian Fluorescence Lifetime Estimation, Decay Model Selection and Instrument Response Determination for Low-Intensity FLIM Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Rowley, Mark I.; Coolen, Anthonius C. C.; Vojnovic, Borivoj; Barber, Paul R.

    2016-01-01

    We present novel Bayesian methods for the analysis of exponential decay data that exploit the evidence carried by every detected decay event and enables robust extension to advanced processing. Our algorithms are presented in the context of fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) and particular attention has been paid to model the time-domain system (based on time-correlated single photon counting) with unprecedented accuracy. We present estimates of decay parameters for mono- and bi-exponential systems, offering up to a factor of two improvement in accuracy compared to previous popular techniques. Results of the analysis of synthetic and experimental data are presented, and areas where the superior precision of our techniques can be exploited in Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (FRET) experiments are described. Furthermore, we demonstrate two advanced processing methods: decay model selection to choose between differing models such as mono- and bi-exponential, and the simultaneous estimation of instrument and decay parameters. PMID:27355322

  16. Comparing lifetime emissions of natural gas and conventional fuel vehicles: an application of the generalized ANCOVA model.

    PubMed

    Deaton, M L; Winebrake, J J

    2000-02-01

    New regulations and incentives are encouraging the use of clean, alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs) in urban areas. These vehicles are seen as one option for reducing air pollution from mobile sources. However, because of the limited number of AFVs on the road, little is known about actual lifetime emissions characteristics of in-use AFVs. This study describes the use of a generalized analysis of covariance model to evaluate and compare the emissions from natural gas vehicles with emissions from reformulated gasoline vehicles. The model describes fleet-wide emissions deterioration, while also accounting for individual vehicle variability within the fleet. This ability to measure individual vehicle variability can then be used to provide realistic bounds for the emissions deterioration in individual vehicles and the fleet as a whole. In order to illustrate the use of the model, the carbon monoxide, oxides of nitrogen (NOx), non-methane hydrocarbon (NMHC), and carbon dioxide emissions characteristics of a fleet of dedicated natural gas Dodge Ram vans and a fleet of dedicated reformulated gasoline Dodge Ram vans operating in the U.S. government fleet are explored. The analysis demonstrates the utility of the statistical method and suggests a potential for natural gas Dodge Ram vans to be generally cleaner than their conventional fuel counterparts. However, in the case of NOx and NHMCs, the analysis also suggests that these emissions benefits might be reduced over the vehicle lifetime due to higher emissions deterioration rates for natural gas vehicles. As this paper is aimed at illustrating the analysis of the covariance model, the results reported herein should be considered within the context of a more comprehensive study of these data before general conclusions are possible. Generalization of these findings to other vehicle models and alternative fuel technologies is not justified without further study.

  17. Benefits and costs of substance abuse treatment programs for state prison inmates: results from a lifetime simulation model.

    PubMed

    Zarkin, Gary A; Cowell, Alexander J; Hicks, Katherine A; Mills, Michael J; Belenko, Steven; Dunlap, Laura J; Houser, Kimberly A; Keyes, Vince

    2012-06-01

    Reflecting drug use patterns and criminal justice policies throughout the 1990s and 2000s, prisons hold a disproportionate number of society's drug abusers. Approximately 50% of state prisoners meet the criteria for a diagnosis of drug abuse or dependence, but only 10% receive medically based drug treatment. Because of the link between substance abuse and crime, treating substance abusing and dependent state prisoners while incarcerated has the potential to yield substantial economic benefits. In this paper, we simulate the lifetime costs and benefits of improving prison-based substance abuse treatment and post-release aftercare for a cohort of state prisoners. Our model captures the dynamics of substance abuse as a chronic disease; estimates the benefits of substance abuse treatment over individuals' lifetimes; and tracks the costs of crime and criminal justice costs related to policing, adjudication, and incarceration. We estimate net societal benefits and cost savings to the criminal justice system of the current treatment system and five policy scenarios. We find that four of the five policy scenarios provide positive net societal benefits and cost savings to the criminal justice system relative to the current treatment system. Our study demonstrates the societal gains to improving the drug treatment system for state prisoners.

  18. BENEFITS AND COSTS OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE TREATMENT PROGRAMS FOR STATE PRISON INMATES: RESULTS FROM A LIFETIME SIMULATION MODEL

    PubMed Central

    ZARKIN, GARY A.; COWELL, ALEXANDER J.; HICKS, KATHERINE A.; MILLS, MICHAEL J.; BELENKO, STEVEN; DUNLAP, LAURA J.; HOUSER, KIMBERLY A.; KEYES, VINCE

    2011-01-01

    SUMMARY Reflecting drug use patterns and criminal justice policies throughout the 1990s and 2000s, prisons hold a disproportionate number of society’s drug abusers. Approximately 50% of state prisoners meet the criteria for a diagnosis of drug abuse or dependence, but only 10% receive medically based drug treatment. Because of the link between substance abuse and crime, treating substance abusing and dependent state prisoners while incarcerated has the potential to yield substantial economic benefits. In this paper, we simulate the lifetime costs and benefits of improving prison-based substance abuse treatment and post-release aftercare for a cohort of state prisoners. Our model captures the dynamics of substance abuse as a chronic disease; estimates the benefits of substance abuse treatment over individuals’ lifetimes; and tracks the costs of crime and criminal justice costs related to policing, adjudication, and incarceration. We estimate net societal benefits and cost savings to the criminal justice system of the current treatment system and five policy scenarios. We find that four of the five policy scenarios provide positive net societal benefits and cost savings to the criminal justice system relative to the current treatment system. Our study demonstrates the societal gains to improving the drug treatment system for state prisoners. PMID:21506193

  19. Major Depression and Life satisfaction: A population-based twin study

    PubMed Central

    Nes, Ragnhild B.; Czajkowski, Nikolai O.; Røysamb, Espen; Ørstavik, Ragnhild E.; Tambs, Kristian; Reichborn-Kjennerud, Ted

    2012-01-01

    Background The extent to which positive and negative indicators of mental health share etiological influences has been studied to a limited degree only. This study examines the genetic and environmental influences on association between liability to lifetime DSM-IV Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) and dispositional life satisfaction (LS). Methods Two-wave questionnaire data on LS (assessed 6 years apart) and lifetime MDD obtained by structured clinical interviews in a population-based sample of adult twins were analysed using structural equation modelling in Mx. Results The prevalence of lifetime MDD was estimated to be 11.1% and 15.8% in males and females, respectively. Individuals fulfilling the criteria for MDD reported significantly lower levels of LS. The co-variation in MDD and dispositional LS was found to be accounted for by genetic and unique environmental influences only. The phenotypic correlation was estimated to be 0.36, of which genetic influences accounted for 74% and environmental factors the remaining 26%. The correlation between genetic factors for MDD and LS was estimated to be −0.55 and the correlation between unique environmental factors to be −0.22. Heritability was estimated to 0.34 and 0.72 for MDD and LS, respectively. Limitations The sample consists of twins only and there are limitations associated with the twin design. Conclusions Whereas genetic influences on vulnerability to lifetime MDD are considerably shared with liability to (low) LS, environmental influences are more distinct. Thus, environmental factors associated with risk of MDD do not strongly impact on dispositional LS, and conversely, environmental factors influencing dispositional LS do not strongly buffer against MDD. PMID:23021825

  20. Predicting the lifetime of organic vapor cartridges exposed to volatile organic compound mixtures using a partial differential equations model.

    PubMed

    Vuong, François; Chauveau, Romain; Grevillot, Georges; Marsteau, Stéphanie; Silvente, Eric; Vallieres, Cécile

    2016-09-01

    In this study, equilibria, breakthrough curves, and breakthrough times were predicted for three binary mixtures of four volatile organic compounds (VOCs) using a model based on partial differential equations of dynamic adsorption coupling a mass balance, a simple Linear Driving Force (LDF) hypothesis to describe the kinetics, and the well-known Extended-Langmuir (EL) equilibrium model. The model aims to predict with a limited complexity, the BTCs of respirator cartridges exposed to binary vapor mixtures from equilibria and kinetics data obtained from single component. In the model, multicomponent mass transfer was simplified to use only single dynamic adsorption data. The EL expression used in this study predicted equilibria with relatively good accuracy for acetone/ethanol and ethanol/cyclohexane mixtures, but the prediction of cyclohexane uptake when mixed with heptane is less satisfactory. The BTCs given by the model were compared to experimental BTCs to determine the accuracy of the model and the impact of the approximation on mass transfer coefficients. From BTCs, breakthrough times at 10% of the exposure concentration t10% were determined. All t10% were predicted within 20% of the experimental values, and 63% of the breakthrough times were predicted within a 10% error. This study demonstrated that a simple mass balance combined with kinetic approximations is sufficient to predict lifetime for respirator cartridges exposed to VOC mixtures. It also showed that a commonly adopted approach to describe multicomponent adsorption based on volatility of VOC rather than adsorption equilibrium greatly overestimated the breakthrough times.

  1. In-hospital mortality after traumatic brain injury surgery: a nationwide population-based comparison of mortality predictors used in artificial neural network and logistic regression models.

    PubMed

    Shi, Hon-Yi; Hwang, Shiuh-Lin; Lee, King-Teh; Lin, Chih-Lung

    2013-04-01

    Most reports compare artificial neural network (ANN) models and logistic regression models in only a single data set, and the essential issue of internal validity (reproducibility) of the models has not been adequately addressed. This study proposes to validate the use of the ANN model for predicting in-hospital mortality after traumatic brain injury (TBI) surgery and to compare the predictive accuracy of ANN with that of the logistic regression model. The authors of this study retrospectively analyzed 16,956 patients with TBI nationwide who were surgically treated in Taiwan between 1998 and 2009. For every 1000 pairs of ANN and logistic regression models, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics, and accuracy rate were calculated and compared using paired t-tests. A global sensitivity analysis was also performed to assess the relative importance of input parameters in the ANN model and to rank the variables in order of importance. The ANN model outperformed the logistic regression model in terms of accuracy in 95.15% of cases, in terms of Hosmer-Lemeshow statistics in 43.68% of cases, and in terms of the AUC in 89.14% of cases. The global sensitivity analysis of in-hospital mortality also showed that the most influential (sensitive) parameters in the ANN model were surgeon volume followed by hospital volume, Charlson comorbidity index score, length of stay, sex, and age. This work supports the continued use of ANNs for predictive modeling of neurosurgery outcomes. However, further studies are needed to confirm the clinical efficacy of the proposed model.

  2. Population based screening for chronic kidney disease: cost effectiveness study

    PubMed Central

    Hemmelgarn, Brenda; Tonelli, Marcello; Au, Flora; Chiasson, T Carter; Dong, James; Klarenbach, Scott

    2010-01-01

    Objective To determine the cost effectiveness of one-off population based screening for chronic kidney disease based on estimated glomerular filtration rate. Design Cost utility analysis of screening with estimated glomerular filtration rate alone compared with no screening (with allowance for incidental finding of cases of chronic kidney disease). Analyses were stratified by age, diabetes, and the presence or absence of proteinuria. Scenario and sensitivity analyses, including probabilistic sensitivity analysis, were performed. Costs were estimated in all adults and in subgroups defined by age, diabetes, and hypertension. Setting Publicly funded Canadian healthcare system. Participants Large population based laboratory cohort used to estimate mortality rates and incidence of end stage renal disease for patients with chronic kidney disease over a five year follow-up period. Patients had not previously undergone assessment of glomerular filtration rate. Main outcome measures Lifetime costs, end stage renal disease, quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and incremental cost per QALY gained. Results Compared with no screening, population based screening for chronic kidney disease was associated with an incremental cost of $C463 (Canadian dollars in 2009; equivalent to about £275, €308, US $382) and a gain of 0.0044 QALYs per patient overall, representing a cost per QALY gained of $C104 900. In a cohort of 100 000 people, screening for chronic kidney disease would be expected to reduce the number of people who develop end stage renal disease over their lifetime from 675 to 657. In subgroups of people with and without diabetes, the cost per QALY gained was $C22 600 and $C572 000, respectively. In a cohort of 100 000 people with diabetes, screening would be expected to reduce the number of people who develop end stage renal disease over their lifetime from 1796 to 1741. In people without diabetes with and without hypertension, the cost per QALY gained

  3. Why do general circulation models overestimate the aerosol cloud lifetime effect? A case study comparing CAM5 and a CRM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Cheng; Penner, Joyce E.

    2017-01-01

    Observation-based studies have shown that the aerosol cloud lifetime effect or the increase of cloud liquid water path (LWP) with increased aerosol loading may have been overestimated in climate models. Here, we simulate shallow warm clouds on 27 May 2011 at the southern Great Plains (SGP) measurement site established by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program using a single-column version of a global climate model (Community Atmosphere Model or CAM) and a cloud resolving model (CRM). The LWP simulated by CAM increases substantially with aerosol loading while that in the CRM does not. The increase of LWP in CAM is caused by a large decrease of the autoconversion rate when cloud droplet number increases. In the CRM, the autoconversion rate is also reduced, but this is offset or even outweighed by the increased evaporation of cloud droplets near the cloud top, resulting in an overall decrease in LWP. Our results suggest that climate models need to include the dependence of cloud top growth and the evaporation/condensation process on cloud droplet number concentrations.

  4. Why do general circulation models overestimate the aerosol cloud lifetime effect? A case study comparing CAM5 and a CRM

    DOE PAGES

    Zhou, Cheng; Penner, Joyce E.

    2017-01-02

    Observation-based studies have shown that the aerosol cloud lifetime effect or the increase of cloud liquid water path (LWP) with increased aerosol loading may have been overestimated in climate models. Here, we simulate shallow warm clouds on 27 May 2011 at the southern Great Plains (SGP) measurement site established by the Department of Energy's (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program using a single-column version of a global climate model (Community Atmosphere Model or CAM) and a cloud resolving model (CRM). The LWP simulated by CAM increases substantially with aerosol loading while that in the CRM does not. The increase of LWP inmore » CAM is caused by a large decrease of the autoconversion rate when cloud droplet number increases. In the CRM, the autoconversion rate is also reduced, but this is offset or even outweighed by the increased evaporation of cloud droplets near the cloud top, resulting in an overall decrease in LWP. Our results suggest that climate models need to include the dependence of cloud top growth and the evaporation/condensation process on cloud droplet number concentrations.« less

  5. Expectation Maximization Algorithm for Box-Cox Transformation Cure Rate Model and Assessment of Model Mis-specication under Weibull Lifetimes.

    PubMed

    Pal, Suvra; Balakrishnan, N

    2017-05-16

    In this paper, we develop likelihood inference based on the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm for the Box- Cox transformation cure rate model assuming the lifetimes to follow a Weibull distribution. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the performance of the proposed estimation method. Through Monte Carlo simulations, we also study the effect of model mis-specification on the estimate of cure rate. Finally, we analyze a well-known data on melanoma with the model and the inferential method developed here.

  6. Modelling impacts of performance on the probability of reproducing, and thereby on productive lifespan, allow prediction of lifetime efficiency in dairy cows.

    PubMed

    Phuong, H N; Blavy, P; Martin, O; Schmidely, P; Friggens, N C

    2016-01-01

    Reproductive success is a key component of lifetime efficiency - which is the ratio of energy in milk (MJ) to energy intake (MJ) over the lifespan, of cows. At the animal level, breeding and feeding management can substantially impact milk yield, body condition and energy balance of cows, which are known as major contributors to reproductive failure in dairy cattle. This study extended an existing lifetime performance model to incorporate the impacts that performance changes due to changing breeding and feeding strategies have on the probability of reproducing and thereby on the productive lifespan, and thus allow the prediction of a cow's lifetime efficiency. The model is dynamic and stochastic, with an individual cow being the unit modelled and one day being the unit of time. To evaluate the model, data from a French study including Holstein and Normande cows fed high-concentrate diets and data from a Scottish study including Holstein cows selected for high and average genetic merit for fat plus protein that were fed high- v. low-concentrate diets were used. Generally, the model consistently simulated productive and reproductive performance of various genotypes of cows across feeding systems. In the French data, the model adequately simulated the reproductive performance of Holsteins but significantly under-predicted that of Normande cows. In the Scottish data, conception to first service was comparably simulated, whereas interval traits were slightly under-predicted. Selection for greater milk production impaired the reproductive performance and lifespan but not lifetime efficiency. The definition of lifetime efficiency used in this model did not include associated costs or herd-level effects. Further works should include such economic indicators to allow more accurate simulation of lifetime profitability in different production scenarios.

  7. Comparisons of Transport and Dispersion Model Predictions of the European Tracer Experiment: Area-Based and Population-Based Measures of Effectiveness

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2004-10-01

    Distribution........................................... 3-3 3-2. Contours (Based on IDT) for 3-hour Average Concentration Observations and SCIPUFF (Model 121...Predictions for the Time Periods Between 36 and 75 Hours After the Release. The solid lines correspond to contours for the SCIPUFF predictions...ATMES II Participants for which IDA Obtained Predictions (continued)) .. 1-4 1-2. Top-Ranked Model and Rankings of SCIPUFF and ARAC Based on MOE

  8. Sulfate geoengineering impact on methane transport and lifetime: results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Visioni, Daniele; Pitari, Giovanni; Aquila, Valentina; Tilmes, Simone; Cionni, Irene; Di Genova, Glauco; Mancini, Eva

    2017-09-01

    Sulfate geoengineering (SG), made by sustained injection of SO2 in the tropical lower stratosphere, may impact the CH4 abundance through several photochemical mechanisms affecting tropospheric OH and hence the methane lifetime. (a) The reflection of incoming solar radiation increases the planetary albedo and cools the surface, with a tropospheric H2O decrease. (b) The tropospheric UV budget is upset by the additional aerosol scattering and stratospheric ozone changes: the net effect is meridionally not uniform, with a net decrease in the tropics, thus producing less tropospheric O(1D). (c) The extratropical downwelling motion from the lower stratosphere tends to increase the sulfate aerosol surface area density available for heterogeneous chemical reactions in the mid-to-upper troposphere, thus reducing the amount of NOx and O3 production. (d) The tropical lower stratosphere is warmed by solar and planetary radiation absorption by the aerosols. The heating rate perturbation is highly latitude dependent, producing a stronger meridional component of the Brewer-Dobson circulation. The net effect on tropospheric OH due to the enhanced stratosphere-troposphere exchange may be positive or negative depending on the net result of different superimposed species perturbations (CH4, NOy, O3, SO4) in the extratropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). In addition, the atmospheric stabilization resulting from the tropospheric cooling and lower stratospheric warming favors an additional decrease of the UTLS extratropical CH4 by lowering the horizontal eddy mixing. Two climate-chemistry coupled models are used to explore the above radiative, chemical and dynamical mechanisms affecting CH4 transport and lifetime (ULAQ-CCM and GEOSCCM). The CH4 lifetime may become significantly longer (by approximately 16 %) with a sustained injection of 8 Tg-SO2 yr-1 starting in the year 2020, which implies an increase of tropospheric CH4 (200 ppbv) and a positive indirect radiative

  9. Long-lifetime Martian orbit selection using a time-dependent model of the Martian atmosphere

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Culp, R. D.; Stewart, A. I.; Chow, C.-C.; Uphoff, C.

    1984-01-01

    A mathematical model of the time-dependent Martian atmosphere has been developed in order to accurately calculate the effects of aerodynamic drag on a low altitude satellite. The time-dependent properties of the model include solar activity effects, dust storm effects, seasonal and diurnal variations, and annual motion effects. Position effects are accounted for through Martian latitude and longitude. Expected values of mass density, temperature, scale height, and the estimated standard deviation of the mass density are provided. An example of the use of the model in selecting an orbit for the Mars Geochemical/Climatology Orbiter is given.

  10. Comparing Population-based Risk-stratification Model Performance Using Demographic, Diagnosis and Medication Data Extracted From Outpatient Electronic Health Records Versus Administrative Claims.

    PubMed

    Kharrazi, Hadi; Chi, Winnie; Chang, Hsien-Yen; Richards, Thomas M; Gallagher, Jason M; Knudson, Susan M; Weiner, Jonathan P

    2017-08-01

    There is an increasing demand for electronic health record (EHR)-based risk stratification and predictive modeling tools at the population level. This trend is partly due to increased value-based payment policies and the increasing availability of EHRs at the provider level. Risk stratification models, however, have been traditionally derived from claims or encounter systems. This study evaluates the challenges and opportunities of using EHR data instead of or in addition to administrative claims for risk stratification. This study used the structured EHR records and administrative claims of 85,581 patients receiving outpatient care at a large integrated provider system. Common data elements for risk stratification (ie, age, sex, diagnosis, and medication) were extracted from outpatient EHR records and administrative claims. The performance of a validated risk-stratification model was assessed using data extracted from claims alone, EHR alone, and claims and EHR combined. EHR-derived metrics overlapped considerably with administrative claims (eg, number of chronic conditions). The accuracy of the model, when using EHR data alone, was acceptable with an area under the curve of ∼0.81 for hospitalization and ∼0.85 for identifying top 1% utilizers using the concurrent model. However, when using EHR data alone, the predictive model explained a lower amount of variation in utilization-based outcomes compared with administrative claims. The results show a promising performance of models predicting cost and hospitalization using outpatient EHR's diagnosis and medication data. More research is needed to evaluate the benefits of other EHR data types (eg, lab values and vital signs) for risk stratification.

  11. Evaluating the Number of Stages in Development of Squamous Cell and Adenocarcinomas across Cancer Sites Using Human Population-Based Cancer Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Kravchenko, Julia; Akushevich, Igor; Abernethy, Amy P.; Lyerly, H. Kim

    2012-01-01

    Background Adenocarcinomas (ACs) and squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs) differ by clinical and molecular characteristics. We evaluated the characteristics of carcinogenesis by modeling the age patterns of incidence rates of ACs and SCCs of various organs to test whether these characteristics differed between cancer subtypes. Methodology/Principal Findings Histotype-specific incidence rates of 14 ACs and 12 SCCs from the SEER Registry (1973–2003) were analyzed by fitting several biologically motivated models to observed age patterns. A frailty model with the Weibull baseline was applied to each age pattern to provide the best fit for the majority of cancers. For each cancer, model parameters describing the underlying mechanisms of carcinogenesis including the number of stages occurring during an individual’s life and leading to cancer (m-stages) were estimated. For sensitivity analysis, the age-period-cohort model was incorporated into the carcinogenesis model to test the stability of the estimates. For the majority of studied cancers, the numbers of m-stages were similar within each group (i.e., AC and SCC). When cancers of the same organs were compared (i.e., lung, esophagus, and cervix uteri), the number of m-stages were more strongly associated with the AC/SCC subtype than with the organ: 9.79±0.09, 9.93±0.19 and 8.80±0.10 for lung, esophagus, and cervical ACs, compared to 11.41±0.10, 12.86±0.34 and 12.01±0.51 for SCCs of the respective organs (p<0.05 between subtypes). Most SCCs had more than ten m-stages while ACs had fewer than ten m-stages. The sensitivity analyses of the model parameters demonstrated the stability of the obtained estimates. Conclusions/Significance A model containing parameters capable of representing the number of stages of cancer development occurring during individual’s life was applied to the large population data on incidence of ACs and SCCs. The model revealed that the number of m-stages differed by cancer subtype being more

  12. Bacterial ice nuclei impact cloud lifetime and radiative properties and reduce atmospheric heat loss in the BRAMS simulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Costa, Tassio S.; Gonçalves, Fábio L. T.; Yamasoe, Marcia A.; Martins, Jorge A.; Morris, Cindy E.

    2014-08-01

    This study examines the effect of the bacterial species Pseudomonas syringae acting as ice nuclei (IN) on cloud properties to understand its impact on local radiative budget and heating rates. These bacteria may become active IN at temperatures as warm as -2 °C. Numerical simulations were developed using the Brazilian Regional Atmospheric Model System (BRAMS). To investigate the isolated effect of bacterial IN, four scenarios were created considering only homogeneous and bacterial ice nucleation, with 1, 10 and 100 IN per cubic meter of cloud volume and one with no bacteria. Moreover, two other scenarios were generated: the BRAMS default parameterization and its combination with bacterial IN. The model reproduced a strong convective cell over São Paulo on 3 March 2003. Results showed that bacterial IN may change cloud evolution as well as its microphysical properties, which in turn influence cloud radiative properties. For example, the reflected shortwave irradiance over an averaged domain in a scenario considering bacterial IN added to the BRAMS default parameterization was 14% lower than if bacteria were not considered. Heating rates can also be impacted, especially due to differences in cloud lifetime. Results suggest that the omission of bacterial IN in numerical models, including global cloud models, could neglect relevant ice nucleation processes that potentially influence cloud radiative properties.

  13. Constraints from Airborne (210)Pb Observations on Aerosol Scavenging and Lifetime in a Global Chemical Transport Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zhang, Bo; Liu, Hongyu; Crawford, James H.; Fairlie, Duncan T.; Chen, Gao; Dibb, Jack E.; Shah, Viral; Sulprizio, Melissa P.; Yantosca, Robert M.

    2016-01-01

    Lead-210 distribution and lifetime in the atmosphere are not sensitive to ice in-cloud scavenging in convective updraft. Ice in-cloud scavenging in stratiform clouds reduce tropospheric (210)Pb lifetime by approximately 1 day and results in better agreements with observed surface observations and aircraft measured profiles. However, the process results in significant underestimate of (210)Pb in UT/LS.

  14. Expectation maximization-based likelihood inference for flexible cure rate models with Weibull lifetimes.

    PubMed

    Balakrishnan, Narayanaswamy; Pal, Suvra

    2016-08-01

    Recently, a flexible cure rate survival model has been developed by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest to follow the Conway-Maxwell-Poisson distribution. This model includes some of the well-known cure rate models discussed in the literature as special cases. Data obtained from cancer clinical trials are often right censored and expectation maximization algorithm can be used in this case to efficiently estimate the model parameters based on right censored data. In this paper, we consider the competing cause scenario and assuming the time-to-event to follow the Weibull distribution, we derive the necessary steps of the expectation maximization algorithm for estimating the parameters of different cure rate survival models. The standard errors of the maximum likelihood estimates are obtained by inverting the observed information matrix. The method of inference developed here is examined by means of an extensive Monte Carlo simulation study. Finally, we illustrate the proposed methodology with a real data on cancer recurrence.

  15. Lifetime Measurements in ^124Xe.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Govil, I. M.; Patnaik, D.; Kumar, A.; Garg, U.; Ghugre, S. S.; Johnson, T.; Kharraja, B.; Naguleswaran, S.; Walpe, J. C.; Kaczarowski, R.

    1996-10-01

    Lifetimes of lower excited states in ^124Xe have been measured using the Recoil-Distance Doppler-shift technique. The nucleus ^124Xe was produced by the ^18O + ^110Pd reaction at a beam energy of 66 MeV. The Recoil-Distance measurements were performed using the Notre Dame plunger. The lifetimes of the 2^+, 4^+, 6^+ and 8^+ states of the ground-state band were extracted, using the computer code "LIFETIME"^a, including the corrections due to the side-feeding and the nuclear deorientation effects. The lifetime of the 2^+1 state agrees well with the Coloumb-excitation data ^b. The measured B(E2) values are compared with the existing Algebraic and Multishell models. ^a Computer code LIFETIME, J.C. Wells, ORNL, Oak-Ridge, TN. ^b D.M Gordon et al, PRC 12, 628 (1975).

  16. Validation of three BRCA1/2 mutation-carrier probability models Myriad, BRCAPRO and BOADICEA in a population-based series of 183 German families.

    PubMed

    Schneegans, S M; Rosenberger, A; Engel, U; Sander, M; Emons, G; Shoukier, M

    2012-06-01

    Many studies have evaluated the performance of risk assessment models for BRCA1/2 mutation carrier probabilities in different populations, but to our knowledge very few studies have been conducted in the German population so far. In the recent study, we validated the performance of three risk calculation models by names BRCAPRO, Myriad and BOADICEA in 183 German families who had undergone molecular testing of mutations in BRCA1 and BRCA2 with an indication based on clinical criteria regarding their family history of cancer. The sensitivity and specificity at the conventional threshold of 10% as well as for a threshold of 20% were evaluated. The ability to discriminate between carriers and non-carriers was judged by the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve. We further focused on the performance characteristic of these models in patients carrying large genomic rearrangements as a subtype of mutations which is currently gaining increasing importance. BRCAPRO and BOADICEA performed almost equally well in our patient population, but we found a lack of agreement to Myriad. The results obtained from this study were consistent with previously published results from other population and racial/ethnic groups. We suggest using model specific decision thresholds instead of the recommended universal value of 10%. We further suggest integrating the CaGene5 software package, which includes BRCAPRO and Myriad, in the genetic counselling of German families with suspected inherited breast and ovarian cancer because of the good performance of BRCAPRO and the substantial ease of use of this software.

  17. The Long Lifetime of the Dispersion Methods of Pasquill in U.S. Regulatory Air Modeling.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, D. Bruce

    1997-08-01

    The suggestions of Pasquill as set forth in his landmark 1961 Meteorological Magazine paper are briefly reviewed. These methods are viewed from the perspective of the requirements placed upon air agencies after the passage of the Clean Air Act in 1970. Pasquill's clarification of the use of his methods in a technical report for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is discussed in relation to the incorporation of these methods into numerous air quality dispersion models. The shifts in the problem areas faced by the EPA and the relation of these to the methods of Pasquill are discussed. Reasons are suggested for the long persistence of the Pasquill methods in the models used to address U.S. EPA regulations. Current trends in the incorporation of newer techniques into regulatory modeling and their relation to the methods of Pasquill are briefly stated.

  18. Decision tree model for predicting long-term outcomes in children with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a nationwide, population-based observational study

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Introduction At hospital arrival, early prognostication for children after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) might help clinicians formulate strategies, particularly in the emergency department. In this study, we aimed to develop a simple and generally applicable bedside tool for predicting outcomes in children after cardiac arrest. Methods We analyzed data of 5,379 children who had undergone OHCA. The data were extracted from a prospectively recorded, nationwide, Utstein-style Japanese database. The primary endpoint was survival with favorable neurological outcome (Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) scale categories 1 and 2) at 1 month after OHCA. We developed a decision tree prediction model by using data from a 2-year period (2008 to 2009, n = 3,693), and the data were validated using external data from 2010 (n = 1,686). Results Recursive partitioning analysis for 11 predictors in the development cohort indicated that the best single predictor for CPC 1 and 2 at 1 month was the prehospital return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). The next predictor for children with prehospital ROSC was an initial shockable rhythm. For children without prehospital ROSC, the next best predictor was a witnessed arrest. Use of a simple decision tree prediction model permitted stratification into four outcome prediction groups: good (prehospital ROSC and initial shockable rhythm), moderately good (prehospital ROSC and initial nonshockable rhythm), poor (prehospital non-ROSC and witnessed arrest) and very poor (prehospital non-ROSC and unwitnessed arrest). By using this model, we identified patient groups ranging from 0.2% to 66.2% for 1-month CPC 1 and 2 probabilities. The validated decision tree prediction model demonstrated a sensitivity of 69.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 58.7% to 78.9%), a specificity of 95.2% (95% CI = 94.1% to 96.2%) and an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.88 (95% CI = 0.87 to 0.90) for predicting 1-month

  19. Modelling the Force of Infection for Hepatitis A in an Urban Population-Based Survey: A Comparison of Transmission Patterns in Brazilian Macro-Regions

    PubMed Central

    Ximenes, Ricardo Arraes de Alencar; Martelli, Celina Maria Turchi; Amaku, Marcos; Sartori, Ana Marli C.; de Soárez, Patricia Coelho; Novaes, Hillegonda Maria Dutilh; Pereira, Leila Maria Moreira Beltrão; Moreira, Regina Célia; Figueiredo, Gerusa Maria; de Azevedo, Raymundo Soares

    2014-01-01

    Background This study aimed to identify the transmission pattern of hepatitis A (HA) infection based on a primary dataset from the Brazilian National Hepatitis Survey in a pre-vaccination context. The national survey conducted in urban areas disclosed two epidemiological scenarios with low and intermediate HA endemicity. Methods A catalytic model of HA transmission was built based on a national seroprevalence survey (2005 to 2009). The seroprevalence data from 7,062 individuals aged 5–69 years from all the Brazilian macro-regions were included. We built up three models: fully homogeneous mixing model, with constant contact pattern; the highly assortative model and the highly assortative model with the additional component accounting for contacts with infected food/water. Curves of prevalence, force of infection (FOI) and the number of new infections with 99% confidence intervals (CIs) were compared between the intermediate (North, Northeast, Midwest and Federal District) and low (South and Southeast) endemicity areas. A contour plot was also constructed. Results The anti- HAV IgG seroprevalence was 68.8% (95% CI, 64.8%–72.5%) and 33.7% (95% CI, 32.4%–35.1%) for the intermediate and low endemicity areas, respectively, according to the field data analysis. The models showed that a higher force of infection was identified in the 10- to 19-year-old age cohort (∼9,000 infected individuals per year per 100,000 susceptible persons) in the intermediate endemicity area, whereas a higher force of infection occurred in the 15- to 29-year-old age cohort (∼6,000 infected individuals per year per 100,000 susceptible persons) for the other macro-regions. Conclusion Our findings support the shift of Brazil toward intermediate and low endemicity levels with the shift of the risk of infection to older age groups. These estimates of HA force of infection stratified by age and endemicity levels are useful information to characterize the pre-vaccination scenario in Brazil

  20. On the Finite Lifetimes of Poloidal Alfven Waves: Box vs. Dipole Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choi, J.; Lee, D. H.; Kim, K. H.; Lee, E.

    2016-12-01

    Poloidal Alfven waves with high azimuthal wave number (m >> 1) in the Earth's magnetosphere are one-dimensional waves that propagate along the magnetic field with radial magnetic field and azimuthal electric field perturbations. It is of great importance to understand the dynamics of the poloidal mode waves since such polarization enables the waves to interact with ring current particles and accelerate or decelerate them via drift-bounce resonances. We investigate the characteristics of poloidal mode using MHD wave models with high grid resolution. Comparisons among a 3-D simple box model, 2-D and 3-D dipole models advance our knowledge of the wave modes in more realistic conditions. To examine the time-dependent behavior of local wave fields, we impose various standing poloidal Alfven waves with different azimuthal wave numbers and harmonics, and follow their evolution in time. Our results show that, unlike the toroidal field line resonances, poloidal Alfven waves are highly transient phenomena such that the initial poloidal wave energy is transferred to the toroidal mode energy. The transient time scale in dipolar geometry turns out to be much shorter than that in the box model. Our results indicate that the geometric effect on time-dependent behavior of poloidal modes is significant, which should be incorporated into wave-particle interaction. It also suggests that prolonged poloidal mode oscillations are unlikely unless there occurs continuous wave excitation via the wave-particle interaction.

  1. Microstructurally based thermomechanical fatigue lifetime model of solder joints for electronic applications

    SciTech Connect

    Frear, D.R.; Rashid, M.M.; Burchett, S.N.

    1993-07-01

    We present a new methodology for predicting the fatigue life of solder joints for electronics applications. This approach involves integration of experimental and computational techniques. The first stage involves correlating the manufacturing and processing parameters with the starting microstructure of the solder joint. The second stage involves a series of experiments that characterize the evolution of the microstructure during thermal cycling. The third stage consists of a computer modeling and simulation effort that utilizes the starting microstructure and experimental data to produce a reliability prediction of the solder joint. This approach is an improvement over current methodologies because it incorporates the microstructure and properties of the solder directly into the model and allows these properties to evolve as the microstructure changes during fatigue.

  2. Microstructurally based thermomechanical fatigue lifetime model of solder joints for electronic applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frear, D. R.; Rashid, M. M.; Burchett, S. N.

    We present a new methodology for predicting the fatigue life of solder joints for electronics applications. This approach involves integration of experimental and computational techniques. The first stage involves correlating the manufacturing and processing parameters with the starting microstructure of the solder joint. The second stage involves a series of experiments that characterize the evolution of the microstructure during thermal cycling. The third stage consists of a computer modeling and simulation effort that utilizes the starting microstructure and experimental data to produce a reliability prediction of the solder joint. This approach is an improvement over current methodologies because it incorporates the microstructure and properties of the solder directly into the model and allows these properties to evolve as the microstructure changes during fatigue.

  3. Construction of a prediction model for type 2 diabetes mellitus in the Japanese population based on 11 genes with strong evidence of the association.

    PubMed

    Miyake, Kazuaki; Yang, Woosung; Hara, Kazuo; Yasuda, Kazuki; Horikawa, Yukio; Osawa, Haruhiko; Furuta, Hiroto; Ng, Maggie C Y; Hirota, Yushi; Mori, Hiroyuki; Ido, Keisuke; Yamagata, Kazuya; Hinokio, Yoshinori; Oka, Yoshitomo; Iwasaki, Naoko; Iwamoto, Yasuhiko; Yamada, Yuichiro; Seino, Yutaka; Maegawa, Hiroshi; Kashiwagi, Atsunori; Wang, He-Yao; Tanahashi, Toshihito; Nakamura, Naoto; Takeda, Jun; Maeda, Eiichi; Yamamoto, Ken; Tokunaga, Katsushi; Ma, Ronald C W; So, Wing-Yee; Chan, Juliana C N; Kamatani, Naoyuki; Makino, Hideichi; Nanjo, Kishio; Kadowaki, Takashi; Kasuga, Masato

    2009-04-01

    Prediction of the disease status is one of the most important objectives of genetic studies. To select the genes with strong evidence of the association with type 2 diabetes mellitus, we validated the associations of the seven candidate loci extracted in our earlier study by genotyping the samples in two independent sample panels. However, except for KCNQ1, the association of none of the remaining seven loci was replicated. We then selected 11 genes, KCNQ1, TCF7L2, CDKAL1, CDKN2A/B, IGF2BP2, SLC30A8, HHEX, GCKR, HNF1B, KCNJ11 and PPARG, whose associations with diabetes have already been reported and replicated either in the literature or in this study in the Japanese population. As no evidence of the gene-gene interaction for any pair of the 11 loci was shown, we constructed a prediction model for the disease using the logistic regression analysis by incorporating the number of the risk alleles for the 11 genes, as well as age, sex and body mass index as independent variables. Cumulative risk assessment showed that the addition of one risk allele resulted in an average increase in the odds for the disease of 1.29 (95% CI=1.25-1.33, P=5.4 x 10(-53)). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, an estimate of the power of the prediction model, was 0.72, thereby indicating that our prediction model for type 2 diabetes may not be so useful but has some value. Incorporation of data from additional risk loci is most likely to increase the predictive power.

  4. Multistate transitional models for measuring adherence to breast cancer screening: A population-based longitudinal cohort study with over two million women.

    PubMed

    Sutradhar, R; Gu, S; Paszat, L F

    2017-06-01

    Objective Prior work on the disparities among women in breast cancer screening adherence has been methodologically limited. This longitudinal study determines and examines the factors associated with becoming adherent. Methods In a cohort of Canadian women aged 50-74, a three-state transitional model was used to examine adherence to screening for breast cancer. The proportion of time spent being non-adherent with screening was calculated for each woman during her observation window. Using age as the time scale, a relative rate multivariable regression was implemented under the three-state transitional model, to examine the association between covariates (all time-varying) and the rate of becoming adherent. Results The cohort consisted of 2,537,960 women with a median follow-up of 8.46 years. Nearly 31% of women were continually up-to-date with breast screening. Once a woman was non-adherent, the rate of becoming adherent was higher among longer term residents (relative rate = 1.289, 95% confidence interval 1.275-1.302), those from wealthier neighbourhoods, and those who had an identifiable primary care provider who was female or had graduated in Canada. Conclusion Individual and physician-level characteristics play an important role in a woman's adherence to screening. This work improves the quality of evidence regarding disparities among women in adherence to breast cancer screening and provides a novel methodological foundation to investigate adherence for other types of screening, including cervix and colorectal cancer screening.

  5. Model prediction for ranking lead-acid batteries according to expected lifetime in renewable energy systems and autonomous power-supply systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schiffer, Julia; Sauer, Dirk Uwe; Bindner, Henrik; Cronin, Tom; Lundsager, Per; Kaiser, Rudi

    Predicting the lifetime of lead-acid batteries in applications with irregular operating conditions such as partial state-of-charge cycling, varying depth-of-discharge and different times between full charging is known as a difficult task. Experimental investigations in the laboratory are difficult because each application has its own specific operation profile. Therefore, an experimental investigation is necessary for each application and, moreover, for each operation strategy. This paper presents a lifetime model that allows comparison of the impact of different operating conditions, different system sizing and different battery technologies on battery lifetime. It is a tool for system designers and system operators to select appropriate batteries, to do a proper system design (sizing of the battery, power generators and loads), and to implement an optimized operation strategy (end-of-charge voltage, frequency of full charging, gassing periods, maximum depth-of-discharge). The model is a weighted Ah throughput approach based on the assumption that operating conditions are typically more severe than those used in standard tests of cycling and float lifetime. The wear depends on the depth-of-discharge, the current rate, the existing acid stratification, and the time since the last full charging. The actual Ah throughput is continuously multiplied by a weight factor that represents the actual operating conditions. Even though the modelling approach is mainly heuristic, all of the effects that are taken into account are based on a detailed analysis and understanding of ageing processes in lead-acid batteries. The 'normal' user can adapt the model to different battery types simply from the data sheet information on cycle lifetime and float lifetime.

  6. How patch size and refuge availability change interaction strength and population dynamics: a combined individual- and population-based modeling experiment.

    PubMed

    Li, Yuanheng; Brose, Ulrich; Meyer, Katrin; Rall, Björn C

    2017-01-01

    Knowledge on how functional responses (a measurement of feeding interaction strength) are affected by patch size and habitat complexity (represented by refuge availability) is crucial for understanding food-web stability and subsequently biodiversity. Due to their laborious character, it is almost impossible to carry out systematic empirical experiments on functional responses across wide gradients of patch sizes and refuge availabilities. Here we overcame this issue by using an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate feeding experiments. The model is based on empirically measured traits such as body-mass dependent speed and capture success. We simulated these experiments in patches ranging from sizes of petri dishes to natural patches in the field. Moreover, we varied the refuge availability within the patch independently of patch size, allowing for independent analyses of both variables. The maximum feeding rate (the maximum number of prey a predator can consume in a given time frame) is independent of patch size and refuge availability, as it is the physiological upper limit of feeding rates. Moreover, the results of these simulations revealed that a type III functional response, which is known to have a stabilizing effect on population dynamics, fitted the data best. The half saturation density (the prey density where a predator consumes half of its maximum feeding rate) increased with refuge availability but was only marginally influenced by patch size. Subsequently, we investigated how patch size and refuge availability influenced stability and coexistence of predator-prey systems. Following common practice, we used an allometric scaled Rosenzweig-MacArthur predator-prey model based on results from our in silico IBM experiments. The results suggested that densities of both populations are nearly constant across the range of patch sizes simulated, resulting from the constant interaction strength across the patch sizes. However, constant densities with

  7. How patch size and refuge availability change interaction strength and population dynamics: a combined individual- and population-based modeling experiment

    PubMed Central

    Brose, Ulrich; Meyer, Katrin

    2017-01-01

    Knowledge on how functional responses (a measurement of feeding interaction strength) are affected by patch size and habitat complexity (represented by refuge availability) is crucial for understanding food-web stability and subsequently biodiversity. Due to their laborious character, it is almost impossible to carry out systematic empirical experiments on functional responses across wide gradients of patch sizes and refuge availabilities. Here we overcame this issue by using an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate feeding experiments. The model is based on empirically measured traits such as body-mass dependent speed and capture success. We simulated these experiments in patches ranging from sizes of petri dishes to natural patches in the field. Moreover, we varied the refuge availability within the patch independently of patch size, allowing for independent analyses of both variables. The maximum feeding rate (the maximum number of prey a predator can consume in a given time frame) is independent of patch size and refuge availability, as it is the physiological upper limit of feeding rates. Moreover, the results of these simulations revealed that a type III functional response, which is known to have a stabilizing effect on population dynamics, fitted the data best. The half saturation density (the prey density where a predator consumes half of its maximum feeding rate) increased with refuge availability but was only marginally influenced by patch size. Subsequently, we investigated how patch size and refuge availability influenced stability and coexistence of predator-prey systems. Following common practice, we used an allometric scaled Rosenzweig–MacArthur predator-prey model based on results from our in silico IBM experiments. The results suggested that densities of both populations are nearly constant across the range of patch sizes simulated, resulting from the constant interaction strength across the patch sizes. However, constant densities with

  8. Personality traits of the five-factor model are associated with effort-reward imbalance at work: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Törnroos, Maria; Hintsanen, Mirka; Hintsa, Taina; Jokela, Markus; Pulkki-Råback, Laura; Kivimäki, Mika; Hutri-Kähönen, Nina; Keltikangas-Järvinen, Liisa

    2012-07-01

    This study examined the association between personality traits and work stress. The sample comprised 757 women and 613 men (aged 30 to 45 years in 2007) participating in the Young Finns study. Personality was assessed with the NEO-FFI questionnaire and work stress according to Siegrist's effort-reward imbalance (ERI) model. High neuroticism, low extraversion, and low agreeableness were associated with high ERI. Low conscientiousness was associated with high ERI in men. No association was found between openness and ERI. High neuroticism, high extraversion, and low agreeableness were associated with high effort and low neuroticism, high extraversion, and high agreeableness with high rewards. High conscientiousness was associated with high effort, and in women, with high rewards. High openness was associated with high effort. This study suggests that personality traits may predispose to and protect from work stress.

  9. Zero-Inflated Models for Identifying Relationships Between Body Mass Index and Gastroesophageal Reflux Symptoms: A Nationwide Population-Based Study in China.

    PubMed

    Xu, Qin; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Tianyi; Zhang, Ruijie; Zhao, Yanfang; Zhang, Yuan; Guo, Yibin; Wang, Rui; Ma, Xiuqiang; He, Jia

    2016-07-01

    That obesity leads to gastroesophageal reflux is a widespread notion. However, scientific evidence for this association is limited, with no rigorous epidemiological approach conducted to address this question. This study examined the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and gastroesophageal reflux symptoms in a large population-representative sample from China. We performed a cross-sectional study in an age- and gender-stratified random sample of the population of five central regions in China. Participants aged 18-80 years completed a general information questionnaire and a Chinese version of the Reflux Disease Questionnaire. The zero-inflated Poisson regression model estimated the relationship between body mass index and gastroesophageal reflux symptoms. Overall, 16,091 (89.4 %) of the 18,000 eligible participants responded. 638 (3.97 %) and 1738 (10.81 %) experienced at least weekly heartburn and weekly acid regurgitation, respectively. After adjusting for potential risk factors in the zero-inflated part, the frequency [odds ratio (OR) 0.66, 95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) 0.50-0.86, p = 0.002] and severity (OR 0.66, 95 % CI 0.50-088, p = 0.004) of heartburn in obese participants were statistically significant compared to those in normal participants. In the Poisson part, the frequency of acid regurgitation, overweight (OR 1.10, 95 % CI 1.01-1.21, p = 0.038) and obesity (OR 1.19, 95 % CI 1.04-1.37, p = 0.013) were statistically significant. BMI was strongly and positively related to the frequency and severity of gastroesophageal reflux symptoms. Additionally, gender exerted strong specific effects on the relationship between BMI and gastroesophageal reflux symptoms. The severity and frequency of heartburn were positively correlated with obesity. This relationship was presented distinct in male participants only.

  10. Establishment of primary cultures for mouse ameloblasts as a model of their lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Suzawa, Tetsuo . E-mail: suzawa@dent.showa-u.ac.jp; Itoh, Nao; Takahashi, Naoyuki; Katagiri, Takenobu; Morimura, Naoko; Kobayashi, Yasuna; Yamamoto, Toshinori; Kamijo, Ryutaro

    2006-07-07

    To understand how the properties of ameloblasts are spatiotemporally regulated during amelogenesis, two primary cultures of ameloblasts in different stages of differentiation were established from mouse enamel epithelium. Mouse primary ameloblasts (MPAs) prepared from immature enamel epithelium (MPA-I) could proliferate, whereas those from mature enamel epithelium (MPA-M) could not. MPA-M but not MPA-I caused apoptosis during culture. The mRNA expression of amelogenin, a marker of immature ameloblasts, was down-regulated, and that of enamel matrix serine proteiase-1, a marker of mature ameloblasts, was induced in MPA-I during culture. Using green fluorescence protein as a reporter, a visualized reporter system was established to analyze the promoter activity of the amelogenin gene. The region between -1102 bp and -261 bp was required for the reporter expression in MPA-I. These results suggest that MPAs are valuable in vitro models for investigation of ameloblast biology, and that the visualized system is useful for promoter analysis in MPAs.

  11. Lifetimes of lunar satellite orbits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Meyer, Kurt W.; Buglia, James J.; Desai, Prasun N.

    1994-01-01

    The Space Exploration Initiative has generated a renewed interest in lunar mission planning. The lunar missions currently under study, unlike the Apollo missions, involve long stay times. Several lunar gravity models have been formulated, but mission planners do not have enough confidence in the proposed models to conduct detailed studies of missions with long stay times. In this report, a particular lunar gravitational model, the Ferrari 5 x 5 model, was chosen to determine the lifetimes for 100-km and 300-km perilune altitude, near-circular parking orbits. The need to analyze orbital lifetimes for a large number of initial orbital parameters was the motivation for the formulation of a simplified gravitational model from the original model. Using this model, orbital lifetimes were found to be heavily dependent on the initial conditions of the nearly circular orbits, particularly the initial inclination and argument of perilune. This selected model yielded lifetime predictions of less than 40 days for some orbits, and other orbits had lifetimes exceeding a year. Although inconsistencies and limitations are inherent in all existing lunar gravity models, primarily because of a lack of information about the far side of the moon, the methods presented in this analysis are suitable for incorporating the moon's nonspherical gravitational effects on the preliminary design level for future lunar mission planning.

  12. Momentum-Dependent Lifetime Broadening of Electron Energy Loss Spectra: A Self-Consistent Coupled-Plasmon Model.

    PubMed

    Bourke, J D; Chantler, C T

    2015-02-05

    The complex dielectric function and associated energy loss spectrum of a condensed matter system is a fundamental material parameter that determines both the optical and electronic scattering behavior of the medium. The common representation of the electron energy loss function (ELF) is interpreted as the susceptibility of a system to a single- or bulk-electron (plasmon) excitation at a given energy and momentum and is commonly derived as a summation of noninteracting free-electron resonances with forms constrained by adherence to some externally determined optical standard. This work introduces a new causally constrained momentum-dependent broadening theory, permitting a more physical representation of optical and electronic resonances that agrees more closely with both optical attenuation and electron scattering data. We demonstrate how the momentum dependence of excitation resonances may be constrained uniquely by utilizing a coupled-plasmon model, in which high-energy excitations are able to relax into lower-energy excitations within the medium. This enables a robust and fully self-consistent theory with no free or fitted parameters that reveals additional physical insight not present in previous work. The new developments are applied to the scattering behavior of solid molybdenum and aluminum. We find that plasmon and single-electron lifetimes are significantly affected by the presence of alternate excitation channels and show for molybdenum that agreement with high-precision electron inelastic mean free path data is dramatically improved for energies above 20 eV.

  13. Analytic solutions to modelling exponential and harmonic functions using Chebyshev polynomials: fitting frequency-domain lifetime images with photobleaching.

    PubMed

    Malachowski, George C; Clegg, Robert M; Redford, Glen I

    2007-12-01

    A novel approach is introduced for modelling linear dynamic systems composed of exponentials and harmonics. The method improves the speed of current numerical techniques up to 1000-fold for problems that have solutions of multiple exponentials plus harmonics and decaying components. Such signals are common in fluorescence microscopy experiments. Selective constraints of the parameters being fitted are allowed. This method, using discrete Chebyshev transforms, will correctly fit large volumes of data using a noniterative, single-pass routine that is fast enough to analyse images in real time. The method is applied to fluorescence lifetime imaging data in the frequency domain with varying degrees of photobleaching over the time of total data acquisition. The accuracy of the Chebyshev method is compared to a simple rapid discrete Fourier transform (equivalent to least-squares fitting) that does not take the photobleaching into account. The method can be extended to other linear systems composed of different functions. Simulations are performed and applications are described showing the utility of the method, in particular in the area of fluorescence microscopy.

  14. Trends in lifetime risk and years of life lost due to diabetes in the USA, 1985-2011: a modelling study.

    PubMed

    Gregg, Edward W; Zhuo, Xiaohui; Cheng, Yiling J; Albright, Ann L; Narayan, K M Venkat; Thompson, Theodore J

    2014-11-01

    Diabetes incidence has increased and mortality has decreased greatly in the USA, potentially leading to substantial changes in the lifetime risk of diabetes. We aimed to provide updated estimates for the lifetime risk of development of diabetes and to assess the effect of changes in incidence and mortality on lifetime risk and life-years lost to diabetes in the USA. We incorporated data about diabetes incidence from the National Health Interview Survey, and linked data about mortality from 1985 to 2011 for 598 216 adults, into a Markov chain model to estimate remaining lifetime diabetes risk, years spent with and without diagnosed diabetes, and life-years lost due to diabetes in three cohorts: 1985-89, 1990-99, and 2000-11. Diabetes was determined by self-report and was classified as any diabetes, excluding gestational diabetes. We used logistic regression to estimate the incidence of diabetes and Poisson regression to estimate mortality. On the basis of 2000-11 data, lifetime risk of diagnosed diabetes from age 20 years was 40·2% (95% CI 39·2-41·3) for men and 39·6% (38·6-40·5) for women, representing increases of 20 percentage points and 13 percentage points, respectively, since 1985-89. The highest lifetime risks were in Hispanic men and women, and non-Hispanic black women, for whom lifetime risk now exceeds 50%. The number of life-years lost to diabetes when diagnosed at age 40 years decreased from 7·7 years (95% CI 6·5-9·0) in 1990-99 to 5·8 years (4·6-7·1) in 2000-11 in men, and from 8·7 years (8·4-8·9) to 6·8 years (6·7-7·0) in women over the same period. Because of the increasing diabetes prevalence, the average number of years lost due to diabetes for the population as a whole increased by 46% in men and 44% in women. Years spent with diabetes increased by 156% in men and 70% in women. Continued increases in the incidence of diagnosed diabetes combined with declining mortality have led to an acceleration of lifetime risk and more years

  15. A population-based Habitable Zone perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zsom, Andras

    2015-08-01

    What can we tell about exoplanet habitability if currently only the stellar properties, planet radius, and the incoming stellar flux are known? The Habitable Zone (HZ) is the region around stars where planets can harbor liquid water on their surfaces. The HZ is traditionally conceived as a sharp region around the star because it is calculated for one planet with specific properties e.g., Earth-like or desert planets , or rocky planets with H2 atmospheres. Such planet-specific approach is limiting because the planets’ atmospheric and geophysical properties, which influence the surface climate and the presence of liquid water, are currently unknown but expected to be diverse.A statistical HZ description is outlined which does not select one specific planet type. Instead the atmospheric and surface properties of exoplanets are treated as random variables and a continuous range of planet scenarios are considered. Various probability density functions are assigned to each observationally unconstrained random variable, and a combination of Monte Carlo sampling and climate modeling is used to generate synthetic exoplanet populations with known surface climates. Then, the properties of the liquid water bearing subpopulation is analyzed.Given our current observational knowledge of small exoplanets, the HZ takes the form of a weakly-constrained but smooth probability function. The model shows that the HZ has an inner edge: it is unlikely that planets receiving two-three times more stellar radiation than Earth can harbor liquid water. But a clear outer edge is not seen: a planet that receives a fraction of Earth's stellar radiation (1-10%) can be habitable, if the greenhouse effect of the atmosphere is strong enough. The main benefit of the population-based approach is that it will be refined over time as new data on exoplanets and their atmospheres become available.

  16. Preindustrial to present day changes in tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naik, V.; Voulgarakis, A.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lin, M.; Prather, M. J.; Young, P. J.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Collins, W. J.; Dalsøren, S. B.; Doherty, R.; Eyring, V.; Faluvegi, G.; Folberth, G. A.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Nagashima, T.; van Noije, T. P. C.; Plummer, D. A.; Righi, M.; Rumbold, S. T.; Skeie, R.; Shindell, D. T.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

    2012-11-01

    We have analysed results from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore trends in hydroxyl radical concentration (OH) and methane (CH4) lifetime since preindustrial times (1850) and gain a better understanding of their key drivers. For the present day (2000), the models tend to simulate higher OH abundances in the Northern Hemisphere versus Southern Hemisphere. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against observations suggests low biases in the Northern Hemisphere that may contribute to the high north-south OH asymmetry in the models. A comparison of modelled and observed methyl chloroform lifetime suggests that the present day global multi-model mean OH concentration is slightly overestimated. Despite large regional changes, the modelled global mean OH concentration is roughly constant over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in OH sources (humidity, tropospheric ozone, and NOx emissions), together with decreases in stratospheric ozone and increase in tropospheric temperature, compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large intermodel diversity in the sign and magnitude of OH and methane lifetime changes over this period reflects differences in the relative importance of chemical and physical drivers of OH within each model. For the 1980 to 2000 period, we find that climate warming and a slight increase in mean OH leads to a 4.3 ± 1.9% decrease in the methane lifetime. Analysing sensitivity simulations performed by 10 models, we find that preindustrial to present day climate change decreased the methane lifetime by about 4 months, representing a negative feedback on the climate system. Further, using a subset of the models, we find that global mean OH increased by 46.4 ± 12.2% in response to preindustrial to present day anthropogenic

  17. Ethics in population-based genetic research.

    PubMed

    DeCamp, Matthew; Sugarman, Jeremy

    2004-01-01

    Population-based genetic research, including genetic epidemiology, shows tremendous potential to elucidate the role of genes as causal factors in complex and common human diseases. Like all research with human subjects, full realization of these benefits requires careful attention to its ethical conduct, establishing an appropriate balance between individual protections and the advancement of scientific and medical knowledge. This article reviews the growing literature on genetics research and ethics to describe some of the fundamental ethical issues in population-based genetics research, including research design, recruitment and informed consent, and dealing with research results. Its focus is on areas where consensus is forming and where future work is needed.

  18. Lactation and cardiovascular risk factors in mothers in a population-based study: the HUNT-study

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Lactation has beneficial short term effects on maternal metabolic health, but the long term effects are less well known. Methods We studied the association between lifetime duration of lactation and cardiovascular risk factors in mothers later in life among 21,368 parous women aged 20 to 85 years attending the second Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT2) in 1995–1997, Norway, a cross-sectional population-based study. General linear modelling was used to calculate mean values of known cardiovascular risk factor levels in five categories of lifetime duration of lactation. Logistic regression was conducted to estimate odds ratios of hypertension, obesity and diabetes. Results Among women aged 50 years or younger, lifetime duration of lactation was significantly and inversely associated with body mass index (P-trend, < 0.001), waist circumference (P-trend, < 0.001), systolic and diastolic blood pressure (both P-trends, < 0.001), and serum levels of triglycerides, total cholesterol and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (all P-trends, < 0.001) after adjustment for covariates. Parous women aged 50 years or younger who had never lactated had higher prevalence of hypertension, obesity and diabetes. In this age group, compared to women who had lactated for 24 months or more, parous women who had never lactated had an OR for hypertension of 1.88 (95% CI 1.41, 2.51), an OR for obesity of 3.37 (95% CI 2.51, 4.51) and an OR for diabetes of 5.87 (95% CI 2.25, 15.3). Among women older than 50 years there were no clear associations. Conclusion Lifetime duration of lactation was associated with long term reduced cardiovascular risk levels in mothers aged 50 years or younger. PMID:22713515

  19. Quantification of the Metabolic State in Cell-Model of Parkinson’s Disease by Fluorescence Lifetime Imaging Microscopy

    PubMed Central

    Chakraborty, Sandeep; Nian, Fang-Shin; Tsai, Jin-Wu; Karmenyan, Artashes; Chiou, Arthur

    2016-01-01

    Intracellular endogenous fluorescent co-enzymes, reduced nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NADH) and flavin adenine dinucleotide (FAD), play a pivotal role in cellular metabolism; quantitative assessment of their presence in living cells can be exploited to monitor cellular energetics in Parkinson’s disease (PD), a neurodegenerative disorder. Here, we applied two-photon fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (2P-FLIM) to noninvasively measure the fluorescence lifetime components of NADH and FAD, and their relative contributions in MPP+ (1-methyl-4-phenylpyridinium) treated neuronal cells, derived from PC12 cells treated with nerve growth factor (NGF), to mimic PD conditions. A systematic FLIM data analysis showed a statistically significant (p < 0.001) decrease in the fluorescence lifetime of both free and protein-bound NADH, as well as free and protein-bound FAD in MPP+ treated cells. On the relative contributions of the free and protein-bound NADH and FAD to the life time, however, both the free NADH contribution and the corresponding protein-bound FAD contribution increase significantly (p < 0.001) in MPP+ treated cells, compared to control cells. These results, which indicate a shift in energy production in the MPP+ treated cells from oxidative phosphorylation towards anaerobic glycolysis, can potentially be used as cellular metabolic metrics to assess the condition of PD at the cellular level. PMID:26758390

  20. Partial likelihood estimation of IRT models with censored lifetime data: an application to mental disorders in the ESEMeD surveys.

    PubMed

    Forero, Carlos G; Almansa, Josué; Adroher, Núria D; Vermunt, Jeroen K; Vilagut, Gemma; De Graaf, Ron; Haro, Josep-Maria; Alonso Caballero, Jordi

    2014-07-01

    Developmental studies of mental disorders based on epidemiological data are often based on cross-sectional retrospective surveys. Under such designs, observations are right-censored, causing underestimation of lifetime prevalences and correlations, and inducing bias in latent trait models on the observations. In this paper we propose a Partial Likelihood (PL) method to estimate unbiased IRT models of lifetime predisposition to develop a certain outcome. A two-step estimation procedure corrects the IRT likelihood of outcome appearance with a function depending on (a) projected outcome frequencies at the end of the risk period, and (b) outcome censoring status at the time of the observation. Simulation results showed that the PL method yielded good recovery of true frequencies and intercepts. Slopes were best estimated when events were sufficiently correlated. When PL is applied to lifetime mental health disorders (assessed in the ESEMeD project surveys), estimated univariate prevalences were, on average, 1.4 times above raw estimates, and 2.06 higher in the case of bivariate prevalences.

  1. Expected lifetime numbers and costs of fractures in postmenopausal women with and without osteoporosis in Germany: a discrete event simulation model

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Osteoporotic fractures cause a large health burden and substantial costs. This study estimated the expected fracture numbers and costs for the remaining lifetime of postmenopausal women in Germany. Methods A discrete event simulation (DES) model which tracks changes in fracture risk due to osteoporosis, a previous fracture or institutionalization in a nursing home was developed. Expected lifetime fracture numbers and costs per capita were estimated for postmenopausal women (aged 50 and older) at average osteoporosis risk (AOR) and for those never suffering from osteoporosis. Direct and indirect costs were modeled. Deterministic univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. Results The expected fracture numbers over the remaining lifetime of a 50 year old woman with AOR for each fracture type (% attributable to osteoporosis) were: hip 0.282 (57.9%), wrist 0.229 (18.2%), clinical vertebral 0.206 (39.2%), humerus 0.147 (43.5%), pelvis 0.105 (47.5%), and other femur 0.033 (52.1%). Expected discounted fracture lifetime costs (excess cost attributable to osteoporosis) per 50 year old woman with AOR amounted to €4,479 (€1,995). Most costs were accrued in the hospital €1,743 (€751) and long-term care sectors €1,210 (€620). Univariate sensitivity analysis resulted in percentage changes between -48.4% (if fracture rates decreased by 2% per year) and +83.5% (if fracture rates increased by 2% per year) compared to base case excess costs. Costs for women with osteoporosis were about 3.3 times of those never getting osteoporosis (€7,463 vs. €2,247), and were markedly increased for women with a previous fracture. Conclusion The results of this study indicate that osteoporosis causes a substantial share of fracture costs in postmenopausal women, which strongly increase with age and previous fractures. PMID:24981316

  2. Expected lifetime numbers and costs of fractures in postmenopausal women with and without osteoporosis in Germany: a discrete event simulation model.

    PubMed

    Bleibler, Florian; Rapp, Kilian; Jaensch, Andrea; Becker, Clemens; König, Hans-Helmut

    2014-06-30

    Osteoporotic fractures cause a large health burden and substantial costs. This study estimated the expected fracture numbers and costs for the remaining lifetime of postmenopausal women in Germany. A discrete event simulation (DES) model which tracks changes in fracture risk due to osteoporosis, a previous fracture or institutionalization in a nursing home was developed. Expected lifetime fracture numbers and costs per capita were estimated for postmenopausal women (aged 50 and older) at average osteoporosis risk (AOR) and for those never suffering from osteoporosis. Direct and indirect costs were modeled. Deterministic univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted. The expected fracture numbers over the remaining lifetime of a 50 year old woman with AOR for each fracture type (% attributable to osteoporosis) were: hip 0.282 (57.9%), wrist 0.229 (18.2%), clinical vertebral 0.206 (39.2%), humerus 0.147 (43.5%), pelvis 0.105 (47.5%), and other femur 0.033 (52.1%). Expected discounted fracture lifetime costs (excess cost attributable to osteoporosis) per 50 year old woman with AOR amounted to € 4,479 (€ 1,995). Most costs were accrued in the hospital € 1,743 (€ 751) and long-term care sectors € 1,210 (€ 620). Univariate sensitivity analysis resulted in percentage changes between -48.4% (if fracture rates decreased by 2% per year) and +83.5% (if fracture rates increased by 2% per year) compared to base case excess costs. Costs for women with osteoporosis were about 3.3 times of those never getting osteoporosis (€ 7,463 vs. € 2,247), and were markedly increased for women with a previous fracture. The results of this study indicate that osteoporosis causes a substantial share of fracture costs in postmenopausal women, which strongly increase with age and previous fractures.

  3. Lifetime measurements in 100Ru

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Konstantinopoulos, T.; Petkov, P.; Goasduff, A.; Arici, T.; Astier, A.; Atanasova, L.; Axiotis, M.; Bonatsos, D.; Detistov, P.; Dewald, A.; Eller, M. J.; Foteinou, V.; Gargano, A.; Georgiev, G.; Gladnishki, K.; Gottardo, A.; Harissopulos, S.; Hess, H.; Kaim, S.; Kocheva, D.; Kusoglu, A.; Lagoyannis, A.; Ljungvall, J.; Lutter, R.; Matea, I.; Melon, B.; Mertzimekis, T. J.; Nannini, A.; Petrache, C. M.; Petrovici, A.; Provatas, G.; Reiter, P.; Rocchini, M.; Roccia, S.; Seidlitz, M.; Siebeck, B.; Suzuki, D.; Warr, N.; De Witte, H.; Zerrouki, T.

    2017-01-01

    The nucleus 100Ru appears to be a good candidate for the E(5) critical point symmetry which describes the U(5)-SO(6) shape phase transition. To investigate this point with respect to the electromagnetic transition strengths, lifetime measurements of its yrast states have been performed using the recoil distance Doppler shift technique as well as the Doppler shift attenuation method. As a result, the lifetimes of the yrast 2+, 4+, and 8+ states were determined. The deduced transition strengths are compared to the E(5) predictions as well as to the results of excited Vampir and shell-model calculations.

  4. Lifetime measurements in 180Pt

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Q. M.; Wu, X. G.; Chen, Y. S.; Li, C. B.; Gao, Z. C.; Li, G. S.; Chen, F. Q.; He, C. Y.; Zheng, Y.; Hu, S. P.; Zhong, J.; Wu, Y. H.; Li, H. W.; Luo, P. W.

    2016-04-01

    Lifetimes of the yrast states in 180Pt have been measured from 4+ to 8+ using the recoil distance Doppler-shift technique in the coincidence mode. These states were populated by the reaction 156Gd(28Si,4 n )180Pt at a beam energy of 144 MeV. The differential decay curve method was applied to determine the lifetimes from experimental coincidence data. The B (E 2 ) values extracted from lifetimes increase with increasing spin, implying rotor behavior, but do not show the typical shape coexistence where the B (E 2 ) values present a rapid increase at very low spins. Calculations based on the triaxial projected shell model were performed for the yrast states in 180Pt and the results of both energies and E 2 transition probabilities reproduce the experimental data very well. The result also shows that a better description of the yrast band in 180Pt requires consideration of the γ degree of freedom.

  5. Lifetime of heavy flavour particles

    SciTech Connect

    Lueth, V.

    1985-10-01

    Recent measurements of the lifetime of the tau leptons and charm and beauty hadrons are reviewed and their significance for the couplings of the charged weak current, flavour mixing, and models relating quarks to hadron decay are discussed. 70 refs., 17 figs., 5 tabs.

  6. Atmospheric lifetimes and Ozone Depletion Potentials of trans-1-chloro-3,3,3-trifluoropropylene and trans-1,2-dichloroethylene in a three-dimensional model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patten, K. O.; Wuebbles, D. J.

    2010-11-01

    The chloroalkenes trans-1-chloro-3,3,3-trifluoropropylene (tCFP) and trans-1,2-dichloroethylene (tDCE) have been proposed as candidate replacements for other compounds in current use that cause concerns regarding potential environmental effects including destruction of stratospheric ozone. Because tCFP and tDCE contain chlorine atoms, the effects of these short-lived compounds on stratospheric ozone must be established. In this study, we derive the atmospheric lifetimes and Ozone Depletion Potentials (ODPs) for tCFP and for tDCE assuming emissions from land surfaces at latitudes 30° N to 60° N using the MOZART 3 three-dimensional model of atmospheric chemistry and physics. 53% of the ozone loss due to tCFP and 98% of the ozone loss due to tDCE take place in the troposphere, rather than in the stratosphere as generally expected from longer-lived chlorocarbons. The atmospheric lifetime of tCFP against chemical reaction is 40.4 days, and its ODP is quite small at 0.00034. The tDCE atmospheric lifetime is 12.7 days, and its ODP is 0.00024, which is the lowest ODP found for any chlorocarbon we have studied. Our study suggests that chlorine from tCFP and tDCE are unlikely to affect ozone at quantities likely to be emitted to the atmosphere.

  7. Atmospheric lifetimes and ozone depletion potentials of trans-1-chloro-3,3,3-trifluoropropylene and trans-1,2-dichloroethylene in a three-dimensional model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Patten, K. O.; Wuebbles, D. J.

    2010-07-01

    The chloroalkenes trans-1-chloro-3,3,3-trifluoropropylene (tCFP) and trans-1,2-dichloroethylene (tDCE) have been proposed as candidate replacements for other compounds in current use that cause concerns regarding potential environmental effects including destruction of stratospheric ozone. Because tCFP and tDCE contain chlorine atoms, the effects of these short-lived compounds on stratospheric ozone must be established. In this study, we derive the atmospheric lifetimes and Ozone Depletion Potentials (ODPs) for tCFP and for tDCE assuming emissions from land surfaces at latitudes 30° N to 60° N using the MOZART 3 three-dimensional model of atmospheric chemistry and physics. Both tCFP and tDCE are shown to primarily affect ozone in the troposphere, rather than in the stratosphere as generally expected from longer-lived chlorocarbons. The atmospheric lifetime of tCFP against chemical reaction is 40.4 days, and its ODP is quite small at 0.00034. The tDCE atmospheric lifetime is 12.7 days, and its ODP is 0.00024, which is the lowest ODP found for any chlorocarbon we have studied. Our study suggests that chlorine from tCFP and tDCE are unlikely to significantly affect ozone at quantities likely to be emitted to the atmosphere.

  8. Physical comorbidities in men with mood and anxiety disorders: a population-based study

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background The mind-body nexus has been a topic of growing interest. Further data are however required to understand the specific relationship between mood and anxiety disorders and individual physical health conditions, and to verify whether these psychiatric disorders are linked to overall medical burden. Methods This study examined data collected from 942 men, 20 to 97 years old, participating in the Geelong Osteoporosis Study. A lifetime history of mood and anxiety disorders was identified using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR Research Version, Non-patient edition (SCID-I/NP). The presence of medical conditions (lifetime) was self-reported and confirmed by medical records, medication use or clinical data. Anthropometric measurements and socioeconomic status (SES) were determined and information on medication use and lifestyle was obtained via questionnaire. Logistic regression models were used to test the associations. Results After adjustment for age, socioeconomic status, and health risk factors (body mass index, physical activity and smoking), mood disorders were associated with gastro oesophageal reflux disease (GORD), recurrent headaches, blackouts and/or epilepsy, liver disorders and pulmonary disease in older people, whilst anxiety disorders were significantly associated with thyroid, GORD and other gastrointestinal disorders, and psoriasis. Increased odds of high medical burden were associated with both mood and anxiety disorders. Conclusions Our study provides further population-based evidence supporting the link between mental and physical illness in men. Understanding these associations is not only necessary for individual management, but also to inform the delivery of health promotion messages and health care. PMID:23618390

  9. The costs of inequality: whole-population modelling study of lifetime inpatient hospital costs in the English National Health Service by level of neighbourhood deprivation

    PubMed Central

    Doran, Tim; Cookson, Richard

    2016-01-01

    Background There are substantial socioeconomic inequalities in both life expectancy and healthcare use in England. In this study, we describe how these two sets of inequalities interact by estimating the social gradient in hospital costs across the life course. Methods Hospital episode statistics, population and index of multiple deprivation data were combined at lower-layer super output area level to estimate inpatient hospital costs for 2011/2012 by age, sex and deprivation quintile. Survival curves were estimated for each of the deprivation groups and used to estimate expected annual costs and cumulative lifetime costs. Results A steep social gradient was observed in overall inpatient hospital admissions, with rates ranging from 31 298/100 000 population in the most affluent fifth of areas to 43 385 in the most deprived fifth. This gradient was steeper for emergency than for elective admissions. The total cost associated with this inequality in 2011/2012 was £4.8 billion. A social gradient was also observed in the modelled lifetime costs where the lower life expectancy was not sufficient to outweigh the higher average costs in the more deprived populations. Lifetime costs for women were 14% greater than for men, due to higher costs in the reproductive years and greater life expectancy. Conclusions Socioeconomic inequalities result in increased morbidity and decreased life expectancy. Interventions to reduce inequality and improve health in more deprived neighbourhoods have the potential to save money for health systems not only within years but across peoples’ entire lifetimes, despite increased costs due to longer life expectancies. PMID:27189975

  10. Cost-effectiveness analysis of population-based screening of hepatocellular carcinoma: Comparing ultrasonography with two-stage screening

    PubMed Central

    Kuo, Ming-Jeng; Chen, Hsiu-Hsi; Chen, Chi-Ling; Fann, Jean Ching-Yuan; Chen, Sam Li-Sheng; Chiu, Sherry Yueh-Hsia; Lin, Yu-Min; Liao, Chao-Sheng; Chang, Hung-Chuen; Lin, Yueh-Shih; Yen, Amy Ming-Fang

    2016-01-01

    AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of two population-based hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening programs, two-stage biomarker-ultrasound method and mass screening using abdominal ultrasonography (AUS). METHODS: In this study, we applied a Markov decision model with a societal perspective and a lifetime horizon for the general population-based cohorts in an area with high HCC incidence, such as Taiwan. The accuracy of biomarkers and ultrasonography was estimated from published meta-analyses. The costs of surveillance, diagnosis, and treatment were based on a combination of published literature, Medicare payments, and medical expenditure at the National Taiwan University Hospital. The main outcome measure was cost per life-year gained with a 3% annual discount rate. RESULTS: The results show that the mass screening using AUS was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD39825 per life-year gained, whereas two-stage screening was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of USD49733 per life-year gained, as compared with no screening. Screening programs with an initial screening age of 50 years old and biennial screening interval were the most cost-effective. These findings were sensitive to the costs of screening tools and the specificity of biomarker screening. CONCLUSION: Mass screening using AUS is more cost effective than two-stage biomarker-ultrasound screening. The most optimal strategy is an initial screening age at 50 years old with a 2-year inter-screening interval. PMID:27022228

  11. Preindustrial to Present-Day Changes in Tropospheric Hydroxyl Radical and Methane Lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Naik, V.; Voulgarakis, A.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lin, M.; Prather, M. J.; Young, P. J.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; hide

    2013-01-01

    We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north–south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6%) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the

  12. Preindustrial to present-day changes in tropospheric hydroxyl radical and methane lifetime from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naik, V.; Voulgarakis, A.; Fiore, A. M.; Horowitz, L. W.; Lamarque, J.-F.; Lin, M.; Prather, M. J.; Young, P. J.; Bergmann, D.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Collins, W. J.; Dalsøren, S. B.; Doherty, R.; Eyring, V.; Faluvegi, G.; Folberth, G. A.; Josse, B.; Lee, Y. H.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Nagashima, T.; van Noije, T. P. C.; Plummer, D. A.; Righi, M.; Rumbold, S. T.; Skeie, R.; Shindell, D. T.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S.; Sudo, K.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

    2013-05-01

    We have analysed time-slice simulations from 17 global models, participating in the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), to explore changes in present-day (2000) hydroxyl radical (OH) concentration and methane (CH4) lifetime relative to preindustrial times (1850) and to 1980. A comparison of modeled and observation-derived methane and methyl chloroform lifetimes suggests that the present-day global multi-model mean OH concentration is overestimated by 5 to 10% but is within the range of uncertainties. The models consistently simulate higher OH concentrations in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with the Southern Hemisphere (SH) for the present-day (2000; inter-hemispheric ratios of 1.13 to 1.42), in contrast to observation-based approaches which generally indicate higher OH in the SH although uncertainties are large. Evaluation of simulated carbon monoxide (CO) concentrations, the primary sink for OH, against ground-based and satellite observations suggests low biases in the NH that may contribute to the high north-south OH asymmetry in the models. The models vary widely in their regional distribution of present-day OH concentrations (up to 34%). Despite large regional changes, the multi-model global mean (mass-weighted) OH concentration changes little over the past 150 yr, due to concurrent increases in factors that enhance OH (humidity, tropospheric ozone, nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, and UV radiation due to decreases in stratospheric ozone), compensated by increases in OH sinks (methane abundance, carbon monoxide and non-methane volatile organic carbon (NMVOC) emissions). The large inter-model diversity in the sign and magnitude of preindustrial to present-day OH changes (ranging from a decrease of 12.7% to an increase of 14.6%) indicate that uncertainty remains in our understanding of the long-term trends in OH and methane lifetime. We show that this diversity is largely explained by the different ratio of the change

  13. Fluorescence lifetime imaging ophthalmoscopy.

    PubMed

    Dysli, Chantal; Wolf, Sebastian; Berezin, Mikhail Y; Sauer, Lydia; Hammer, Martin; Zinkernagel, Martin S

    2017-09-01

    Imaging techniques based on retinal autofluorescence have found broad applications in ophthalmology because they are extremely sensitive and noninvasive. Conventional fundus autofluorescence imaging measures fluorescence intensity of endogenous retinal fluorophores. It mainly derives its signal from lipofuscin at the level of the retinal pigment epithelium. Fundus autofluorescence, however, can not only be characterized by the spatial distribution of the fluorescence intensity or emission spectrum, but also by a characteristic fluorescence lifetime function. The fluorescence lifetime is the average amount of time a fluorophore remains in the excited state following excitation. Fluorescence lifetime imaging ophthalmoscopy (FLIO) is an emerging imaging modality for in vivo measurement of lifetimes of endogenous retinal fluorophores. Recent reports in this field have contributed to our understanding of the pathophysiology of various macular and retinal diseases. Within this review, the basic concept of fluorescence lifetime imaging is provided. It includes technical background information and correlation with in vitro measurements of individual retinal metabolites. In a second part, clinical applications of fluorescence lifetime imaging and fluorescence lifetime features of selected retinal diseases such as Stargardt disease, age-related macular degeneration, choroideremia, central serous chorioretinopathy, macular holes, diabetic retinopathy, and retinal artery occlusion are discussed. Potential areas of use for fluorescence lifetime imaging ophthalmoscopy will be outlined at the end of this review. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  14. Neutron Lifetime Measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nico, J. S.

    2006-11-01

    Precision measurements of neutron beta decay address basic questions in nuclear and particle physics, astrophysics, and cosmology. As the simplest semileptonic decay system, the free neutron plays an important role in understanding the physics of the weak interaction, and improving the precision of the neutron lifetime is fundamental to testing the validity of the theory. The neutron lifetime also directly affects the relative abundance of primordial helium in big bang nucleosynthesis. There are two distinct strategies for measuring the lifetime. Experiments using cold neutrons measure the absolute specific activity of a beam of neutrons by counting decay protons; experiments using confined, ultracold neutrons determine the lifetime by counting neutrons that remain after some elapsed time. The status of the recent lifetime measurements using both of these techniques is discussed.

  15. Neutron Lifetime Measurements

    SciTech Connect

    Nico, J. S.

    2006-11-17

    Precision measurements of neutron beta decay address basic questions in nuclear and particle physics, astrophysics, and cosmology. As the simplest semileptonic decay system, the free neutron plays an important role in understanding the physics of the weak interaction, and improving the precision of the neutron lifetime is fundamental to testing the validity of the theory. The neutron lifetime also directly affects the relative abundance of primordial helium in big bang nucleosynthesis. There are two distinct strategies for measuring the lifetime. Experiments using cold neutrons measure the absolute specific activity of a beam of neutrons by counting decay protons; experiments using confined, ultracold neutrons determine the lifetime by counting neutrons that remain after some elapsed time. The status of the recent lifetime measurements using both of these techniques is discussed.

  16. On the reduced lifetime of nitrous oxide due to climate change induced acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation as simulated by the MPI Earth System Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kracher, D.; Manzini, E.; Reick, C. H.; Schultz, M. G.; Stein, O.

    2014-12-01

    Greenhouse gas induced climate change will modify the physical conditions of the atmosphere. One of the projected changes is an acceleration of the Brewer-Dobson circulation in the stratosphere, as it has been shown in many model studies. This change in the stratospheric circulation consequently bears an effect on the transport and distribution of atmospheric components such as N2O. Since N2O is involved in ozone destruction, a modified distribution of N2O can be of importance for ozone chemistry. N2O is inert in the troposphere and decays only in the stratosphere. Thus, changes in the exchange between troposphere and stratosphere can also affect the stratospheric sink of N2O, and consequently its atmospheric lifetime. N2O is a potent greenhouse gas with a global warming potential of currently approximately 300 CO2-equivalents in a 100-year perspective. A faster decay in atmospheric N2O mixing ratios, i.e. a decreased atmospheric lifetime of N2O, will also reduce its global warming potential. In order to assess the impact of climate change on atmospheric circulation and implied effects on the distribution and lifetime of atmospheric N2O, we apply the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model, MPI-ESM. MPI-ESM consists of the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM, the land surface model JSBACH, and MPIOM/HAMOCC representing ocean circulation and ocean biogeochemistry. Prognostic atmospheric N2O concentrations in MPI-ESM are determined by land N2O emissions, ocean-atmosphere N2O exchange and atmospheric tracer transport. As stratospheric chemistry is not explicitly represented in MPI-ESM, stratospheric decay rates of N2O are prescribed from a MACC MOZART simulation. Increasing surface temperatures and CO2 concentrations in the stratosphere impact atmospheric circulation differently. Thus, we conduct a series of transient runs with the atmospheric model of MPI-ESM to isolate different factors governing a shift in atmospheric circulation. From those transient

  17. Predicting Successful Aging in a Population-Based Sample of Georgia Centenarians

    PubMed Central

    Arnold, Jonathan; Dai, Jianliang; Nahapetyan, Lusine; Arte, Ankit; Johnson, Mary Ann; Hausman, Dorothy; Rodgers, Willard L.; Hensley, Robert; Martin, Peter; MacDonald, Maurice; Davey, Adam; Siegler, Ilene C.; Jazwinski, S. Michal; Poon, Leonard W.

    2010-01-01

    Used a population-based sample (Georgia Centenarian Study, GCS), to determine proportions of centenarians reaching 100 years as (1) survivors (43%) of chronic diseases first experienced between 0–80 years of age, (2) delayers (36%) with chronic diseases first experienced between 80–98 years of age, or (3) escapers (17%) with chronic diseases only at 98 years of age or older. Diseases fall into two morbidity profiles of 11 chronic diseases; one including cardiovascular disease, cancer, anemia, and osteoporosis, and another including dementia. Centenarians at risk for cancer in their lifetime tended to be escapers (73%), while those at risk for cardiovascular disease tended to be survivors (24%), delayers (39%), or escapers (32%). Approximately half (43%) of the centenarians did not experience dementia. Psychiatric disorders were positively associated with dementia, but prevalence of depression, anxiety, and psychoses did not differ significantly between centenarians and an octogenarian control group. However, centenarians were higher on the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) than octogenarians. Consistent with our model of developmental adaptation in aging, distal life events contribute to predicting survivorship outcome in which health status as survivor, delayer, or escaper appears as adaptation variables late in life. PMID:20885919

  18. Predicting successful aging in a population-based sample of georgia centenarians.

    PubMed

    Arnold, Jonathan; Dai, Jianliang; Nahapetyan, Lusine; Arte, Ankit; Johnson, Mary Ann; Hausman, Dorothy; Rodgers, Willard L; Hensley, Robert; Martin, Peter; Macdonald, Maurice; Davey, Adam; Siegler, Ilene C; Jazwinski, S Michal; Poon, Leonard W

    2010-01-01

    Used a population-based sample (Georgia Centenarian Study, GCS), to determine proportions of centenarians reaching 100 years as (1) survivors (43%) of chronic diseases first experienced between 0-80 years of age, (2) delayers (36%) with chronic diseases first experienced between 80-98 years of age, or (3) escapers (17%) with chronic diseases only at 98 years of age or older. Diseases fall into two morbidity profiles of 11 chronic diseases; one including cardiovascular disease, cancer, anemia, and osteoporosis, and another including dementia. Centenarians at risk for cancer in their lifetime tended to be escapers (73%), while those at risk for cardiovascular disease tended to be survivors (24%), delayers (39%), or escapers (32%). Approximately half (43%) of the centenarians did not experience dementia. Psychiatric disorders were positively associated with dementia, but prevalence of depression, anxiety, and psychoses did not differ significantly between centenarians and an octogenarian control group. However, centenarians were higher on the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS) than octogenarians. Consistent with our model of developmental adaptation in aging, distal life events contribute to predicting survivorship outcome in which health status as survivor, delayer, or escaper appears as adaptation variables late in life.

  19. Population bases and the 2011 Census.

    PubMed

    Smallwood, Steve

    2011-01-01

    In an increasingly complex society there are a number of different population definitions that can be relevant for users, beyond the standard definition used in counting the population. This article describes the enumeration base for the 2011 Census and how alternative population outputs may be produced. It provides a background as to how the questions on the questionnaire were decided upon and how population bases can be constructed from the Census. Similarities and differences between the information collected across the three UK Censuses (England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) are discussed. Finally, issues around estimating the population on alternative bases are presented.

  20. Theoretical modeling of fiber laser at 810 nm based on thulium-doped silica fibers with enhanced 3H4 level lifetime.

    PubMed

    Peterka, Pavel; Kasik, Ivan; Dhar, Anirban; Dussardier, Bernard; Blanc, Wilfried

    2011-01-31

    A compact upconversion fiber laser operating around 810 nm is proposed using thulium-doped silica-based fiber with locally modified thulium environment by high alumina codoping. Using a comprehensive numerical model of thulium doped fiber we investigate performance of the proposed laser. Comparison with two other thulium hosts, fluoride glass and standard silica, is presented. Efficient lasing can be expected even for silica based fiber for specific ranges of the fiber and laser cavity parameters, especially when 3H4 lifetime is enhanced. With moderate pump power of 5 W at wavelength of 1064 nm, the predicted output power of the upconversion laser is about 2 W at 810 nm.

  1. High-spin states and lifetimes in 33S and shell-model interpretation in the s d -f p space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aydin, S.; Ionescu-Bujor, M.; Gavrilov, G. Tz.; Dimitrov, B. I.; Lenzi, S. M.; Recchia, F.; Tonev, D.; Bouhelal, M.; Kavillioglu, F.; Pavlov, P.; Bazzacco, D.; Bizzeti, P. G.; Bizzeti-Sona, A. M.; de Angelis, G.; Deloncle, I.; Farnea, E.; Gadea, A.; Gottardo, A.; Goutev, N.; Haas, F.; Huyuk, T.; Laftchiev, H.; Lunardi, S.; Marinov, Tz. K.; Mengoni, D.; Menegazzo, R.; Michelagnoli, C.; Napoli, D. R.; Petkov, P.; Sahin, E.; Singh, P. P.; Stefanova, E. A.; Ur, C. A.; Valiente-Dobón, J. J.; Yavahchova, M. S.

    2017-08-01

    The structure of the 33S nucleus was investigated in the 24Mg(14N,α p ) fusion-evaporation reaction using a 40-MeV 14N beam. The level scheme was extended up to an excitation energy of 11.7 MeV and spin 19 /2+ . Lifetimes of the intermediate- and high-spin states have been investigated by the Doppler shift attenuation method. Data were compared with different shell-model calculations where effective interactions involving two main shells, the sd and the fp, are used.

  2. Polymer damage mitigation---predictive lifetime models of polymer insulation degradation and biorenewable thermosets through cationic polymerization for self-healing applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hondred, Peter Raymond

    Over the past 50 years, the industrial development and applications for polymers and polymer composites has become expansive. However, as with any young technology, the techniques for predicting material damage and resolving material failure are in need of continued development and refinement. This thesis work takes two approaches to polymer damage mitigation---material lifetime prediction and spontaneous damage repair through self-healing while incorporating bio-renewable feedstock. First, material lifetime prediction offers the benefit of identifying and isolating material failures before the effects of damage results in catastrophic failure. Second, self-healing provides a systematic approach to repairing damaged polymer composites, specifically in applications where a hands-on approach or removing the part from service are not feasible. With regard to lifetime prediction, we investigated three specific polymeric materials---polytetrafluoroethylene (PTFE), poly(ethylene-alt-tetrafluoroethylene) (ETFE), and Kapton. All three have been utilized extensively in the aerospace field as a wire insulation coating. Because of the vast amount of electrical wiring used in aerospace constructions and the potential for electrical and thermal failure, this work develops mathematical models for both the thermal degradation kinetics as well as a lifetime prediction model for electrothermal breakdown. Isoconversional kinetic methods, which plot activation energy as a function of the extent of degradation, present insight into the development each kinetic model. The models for PTFE, ETFE, and Kapton are one step, consecutive three-step, and competitive and consecutive five-step respectively. Statistical analysis shows that an nth order autocatalytic reaction best defined the reaction kinetics for each polymer's degradation. Self-healing polymers arrest crack propagation through the use of an imbedded adhesive that reacts when cracks form. This form of damage mitigation focuses on

  3. Using hierarchical cluster models to systematically identify groups of jobs with similar occupational questionnaire response patterns to assist rule-based expert exposure assessment in population-based studies.

    PubMed

    Friesen, Melissa C; Shortreed, Susan M; Wheeler, David C; Burstyn, Igor; Vermeulen, Roel; Pronk, Anjoeka; Colt, Joanne S; Baris, Dalsu; Karagas, Margaret R; Schwenn, Molly; Johnson, Alison; Armenti, Karla R; Silverman, Debra T; Yu, Kai

    2015-05-01

    Rule-based expert exposure assessment based on questionnaire response patterns in population-based studies improves the transparency of the decisions. The number of unique response patterns, however, can be nearly equal to the number of jobs. An expert may reduce the number of patterns that need assessment using expert opinion, but each expert may identify different patterns of responses that identify an exposure scenario. Here, hierarchical clustering methods are proposed as a systematic data reduction step to reproducibly identify similar questionnaire response patterns prior to obtaining expert estimates. As a proof-of-concept, we used hierarchical clustering methods to identify groups of jobs (clusters) with similar responses to diesel exhaust-related questions and then evaluated whether the jobs within a cluster had similar (previously assessed) estimates of occupational diesel exhaust exposure. Using the New England Bladder Cancer Study as a case study, we applied hierarchical cluster models to the diesel-related variables extracted from the occupational history and job- and industry-specific questionnaires (modules). Cluster models were separately developed for two subsets: (i) 5395 jobs with ≥1 variable extracted from the occupational history indicating a potential diesel exposure scenario, but without a module with diesel-related questions; and (ii) 5929 jobs with both occupational history and module responses to diesel-relevant questions. For each subset, we varied the numbers of clusters extracted from the cluster tree developed for each model from 100 to 1000 groups of jobs. Using previously made estimates of the probability (ordinal), intensity (µg m(-3) respirable elemental carbon), and frequency (hours per week) of occupational exposure to diesel exhaust, we examined the similarity of the exposure estimates for jobs within the same cluster in two ways. First, the clusters' homogeneity (defined as >75% with the same estimate) was examined compared

  4. Using Hierarchical Cluster Models to Systematically Identify Groups of Jobs With Similar Occupational Questionnaire Response Patterns to Assist Rule-Based Expert Exposure Assessment in Population-Based Studies

    PubMed Central

    Friesen, Melissa C.; Shortreed, Susan M.; Wheeler, David C.; Burstyn, Igor; Vermeulen, Roel; Pronk, Anjoeka; Colt, Joanne S.; Baris, Dalsu; Karagas, Margaret R.; Schwenn, Molly; Johnson, Alison; Armenti, Karla R.; Silverman, Debra T.; Yu, Kai

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: Rule-based expert exposure assessment based on questionnaire response patterns in population-based studies improves the transparency of the decisions. The number of unique response patterns, however, can be nearly equal to the number of jobs. An expert may reduce the number of patterns that need assessment using expert opinion, but each expert may identify different patterns of responses that identify an exposure scenario. Here, hierarchical clustering methods are proposed as a systematic data reduction step to reproducibly identify similar questionnaire response patterns prior to obtaining expert estimates. As a proof-of-concept, we used hierarchical clustering methods to identify groups of jobs (clusters) with similar responses to diesel exhaust-related questions and then evaluated whether the jobs within a cluster had similar (previously assessed) estimates of occupational diesel exhaust exposure. Methods: Using the New England Bladder Cancer Study as a case study, we applied hierarchical cluster models to the diesel-related variables extracted from the occupational history and job- and industry-specific questionnaires (modules). Cluster models were separately developed for two subsets: (i) 5395 jobs with ≥1 variable extracted from the occupational history indicating a potential diesel exposure scenario, but without a module with diesel-related questions; and (ii) 5929 jobs with both occupational history and module responses to diesel-relevant questions. For each subset, we varied the numbers of clusters extracted from the cluster tree developed for each model from 100 to 1000 groups of jobs. Using previously made estimates of the probability (ordinal), intensity (µg m−3 respirable elemental carbon), and frequency (hours per week) of occupational exposure to diesel exhaust, we examined the similarity of the exposure estimates for jobs within the same cluster in two ways. First, the clusters’ homogeneity (defined as >75% with the same estimate

  5. Population-based incidence of macular holes.

    PubMed

    McCannel, Colin A; Ensminger, Jennifer L; Diehl, Nancy N; Hodge, David N

    2009-07-01

    To determine the incidence of full-thickness macular holes in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Population-based retrospective chart review (cross-sectional study). Ninety-four eyes of 85 patients who were residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota. A population-based retrospective chart review was performed for all diagnoses of macular hole between 1992 and 2002 among residents of Olmsted County, Minnesota. Yearly incidence rates for each given age and sex group were determined by dividing the number of cases within that group by the estimated total Olmsted County resident population of the group for that given year. Documented clinical diagnosis of a macular hole. Idiopathic macular holes occur at an age- and sex-adjusted incidence in 7.8 persons and 8.69 eyes per 100,000 population per year in Olmsted County, Minnesota. The female-to-male ratio was determined to be 3.3 to 1, and bilateral idiopathic macular holes occurred in 11.7% of patients and accounted for 20.9% of the affected eyes. This study uniquely determined the incidence of macular holes in a predominantly Caucasian population.

  6. Population-Based Smoking Cessation Strategies

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Executive Summary Objective The objective of this report was to provide the Ministry of Health Promotion (MHP) with a summary of existing evidence-based reviews of the clinical and economic outcomes of population-based smoking cessation strategies. Background Tobacco use is the leading cause of preventable disease and death in Ontario, linked to approximately 13,000 avoidable premature deaths annually – the vast majority of these are attributable to cancer, cardiovascular disease, and chronic obstructive lung disease. (1) In Ontario, tobacco related health care costs amount to $6.1 billion annually, or about $502 per person (including non-smokers) and account for 1.4% of the provincial domestic product. (2) In 2007, there were approximately 1.7 to 1.9 million smokers in Ontario with two-thirds of these intending to quit in the next six months and one-third wanting to quit within 30 days. (3) In 2007/2008, Ontario invested $15 million in cessation programs, services and training. (4) In June 2009, the Ministry of Health Promotion (MHP) requested that MAS provide a summary of the evidence base surrounding population-based smoking cessation strategies. Project Scope The MAS and the MHP agreed that the project would consist of a clinical and economic summary of the evidence surrounding nine population-based strategies for smoking cessation including: Mass media interventions Telephone counselling Post-secondary smoking cessation programs (colleges/universities) Community-wide stop-smoking contests (i.e. Quit and Win) Community interventions Physician advice to quit Nursing interventions for smoking cessation Hospital-based interventions for smoking cessation Pharmacotherapies for smoking cessation, specifically: Nicotine replacement therapies Antidepressants Anxiolytic drugs Opioid antagonists Clonidine Nicotine receptor partial agonists Reviews examining interventions for Cut Down to Quit (CDTQ) or harm reduction were not included in this review. In addition

  7. Stochastic Analysis of Orbital Lifetimes of Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sasamoto, Washito; Goodliff, Kandyce; Cornelius, David

    2008-01-01

    A document discusses (1) a Monte-Carlo-based methodology for probabilistic prediction and analysis of orbital lifetimes of spacecraft and (2) Orbital Lifetime Monte Carlo (OLMC)--a Fortran computer program, consisting of a previously developed long-term orbit-propagator integrated with a Monte Carlo engine. OLMC enables modeling of variances of key physical parameters that affect orbital lifetimes through the use of probability distributions. These parameters include altitude, speed, and flight-path angle at insertion into orbit; solar flux; and launch delays. The products of OLMC are predicted lifetimes (durations above specified minimum altitudes) for the number of user-specified cases. Histograms generated from such predictions can be used to determine the probabilities that spacecraft will satisfy lifetime requirements. The document discusses uncertainties that affect modeling of orbital lifetimes. Issues of repeatability, smoothness of distributions, and code run time are considered for the purpose of establishing values of code-specific parameters and number of Monte Carlo runs. Results from test cases are interpreted as demonstrating that solar-flux predictions are primary sources of variations in predicted lifetimes. Therefore, it is concluded, multiple sets of predictions should be utilized to fully characterize the lifetime range of a spacecraft.

  8. Stroboscopic fluorescence lifetime imaging.

    PubMed

    Holton, Mark D; Silvestre, Oscar R; Errington, Rachel J; Smith, Paul J; Matthews, Daniel R; Rees, Paul; Summers, Huw D

    2009-03-30

    We report a fluorescence lifetime imaging technique that uses the time integrated response to a periodic optical excitation, eliminating the need for time resolution in detection. A Dirac pulse train of variable period is used to probe the frequency response of the total fluorescence per pulse leading to a frequency roll-off that is dependent on the relaxation rate of the fluorophores. The technique is validated by demonstrating wide-field, realtime, lifetime imaging of the endocytosis of inorganic quantum dots by a cancer cell line. Surface charging of the dots in the intra-cellular environment produces a switch in the fluorescence lifetime from approximately 40 ns to < 10 ns. A temporal resolution of half the excitation period is possible which in this instance is 15 ns. This stroboscopic technique offers lifetime based imaging at video rates with standard CCD cameras and has application in probing millisecond cell dynamics and in high throughput imaging assays.

  9. Thermo-mechanical and neutron lifetime modeling and design of Be pebbles in the neutron multiplier for the LIFE engine

    SciTech Connect

    DeMange, P; Marian, J; de Caro, M S; Caro, A

    2009-03-16

    Concept designs for the laser-initiated fusion/fission engine (LIFE) include a neutron multiplication blanket containing Be pebbles flowing in a molten salt coolant. These pebbles must be designed to withstand the extreme irradiation and temperature conditions in the blanket to enable a safe and cost-effective operation of LIFE. In this work, we develop design criteria for spherical Be pebbles on the basis of their thermomechanical behavior under continued neutron exposure. We consider the effects of high fluence/fast flux on the elastic, thermal and mechanical properties of nuclear-grade Be. Our results suggest a maximum pebble diameter of 30 mm to avoid tensile failure, coated with an anti-corrosive, high-strength metallic shell to avoid failure by pebble contact. Moreover, we find that the operation temperature must always be kept above 450 C to enable creep to relax the stresses induced by swelling, which we estimate to be at least 16 months if uncoated and up to six years when coated. We identify the sources of uncertainty on the properties used and discuss the advantages of new intermetallic beryllides and their use in LIFE's neutron multiplier. To establish Be-pebble lifetimes with improved confidence, reliable experiments to measure irradiation creep must be performed.

  10. Doublon lifetimes in dissipative environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bello, Miguel; Platero, Gloria; Kohler, Sigmund

    2017-07-01

    We study the dissipative decay of states with a doubly occupied site in a two-electron Hubbard model, known as doublons. For the environment, we consider charge and current noise, which are modeled as a bosonic heat bath that couples to the on-site energies and the tunnel couplings, respectively. It turns out that the dissipative decay depends qualitatively on the type of environment, as for charge noise, the lifetime grows with the electron-electron interaction. For current noise, by contrast, doublons become increasingly unstable with larger interaction. Numerical studies within a Bloch-Redfield approach are complemented by analytical estimates for the decay rates. For typical quantum dot parameters, we predict doublon lifetimes up to 50 ns.

  11. Heritability of lifetime ecstasy use.

    PubMed

    Verweij, Karin J H; Treur, Jorien L; Vreeker, Annabel; Brunt, Tibor M; Willemsen, Gonneke; Boomsma, Dorret I; Vink, Jacqueline M

    2017-09-01

    Ecstasy is a widely used psychoactive drug that users often take because they experience positive effects such as increased euphoria, sociability, elevated mood, and heightened sensations. Ecstasy use is not harmless and several immediate and long term side effects have been identified. Lifetime ecstasy use is likely to be partly influenced by genetic factors, but no twin study has determined the heritability. Here, we apply a classical twin design to a large sample of twins and siblings to estimate the heritability of lifetime ecstasy use. The sample comprised 8500 twins and siblings aged between 18 and 45 years from 5402 families registered at the Netherlands Twin Registry. In 2013-2014 participants filled out a questionnaire including a question whether they had ever used ecstasy. We used the classical twin design to partition the individual differences in liability to ecstasy use into that due to genetic, shared environmental, and residual components. Overall, 10.4% of the sample had used ecstasy during their lifetime, with a somewhat higher prevalence in males than females. Twin modelling indicated that individual differences in liability to lifetime ecstasy use are for 74% due to genetic differences between individuals, whereas shared environmental and residual factors explain a small proportion of its liability (5% and 21%, respectively). Although heritability estimates appeared to be higher for females than males, this difference was not significant. Lifetime ecstasy use is a highly heritable trait, which indicates that some people are genetically more vulnerable to start using ecstasy than others. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  12. Satellite lifetime routine user's manual

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Everett, H. U.; Myler, T. R.

    1975-01-01

    A FORTRAN coded computer program which determines secular variations in mean orbital elements of earth satellites and the lifetime of the orbit is described. The dynamical model treats a point mass satellite subject to solar and lunar disturbing gravitational fields, second, third and fourth harmonics of the earth's oblate potential, earth's atmospheric drag, and solar radiation pressure. Each of these disturbing functions may be selectively simulated. Data preparation instructions, a sample problem, and definitions of output quantities are included.

  13. Variations on the Theme of Synaptic Filtering: A Comparison of Integrate-and-Express Models of Synaptic Plasticity for Memory Lifetimes.

    PubMed

    Elliott, Terry

    2016-09-14

    Integrate-and-express models of synaptic plasticity propose that synapses integrate plasticity induction signals before expressing synaptic plasticity. By discerning trends in their induction signals, synapses can control destabilizing fluctuations in synaptic strength. In a feedforward perceptron framework with binary-strength synapses for associative memory storage, we have previously shown that such a filter-based model outperforms other, nonintegrative, "cascade"-type models of memory storage in most regions of biologically relevant parameter space. Here, we consider some natural extensions of our earlier filter model, including one specifically tailored to binary-strength synapses and one that demands a fixed, consecutive number of same-type induction signals rather than merely an excess before expressing synaptic plasticity. With these extensions, we show that filter-based models outperform nonintegrative models in all regions of biologically relevant parameter space except for a small sliver in which all models encode memories only weakly. In this sliver, which model is superior depends on the metric used to gauge memory lifetimes (whether a signal-to-noise ratio or a mean first passage time). After comparing and contrasting these various filter models, we discuss the multiple mechanisms and timescales that underlie both synaptic plasticity and memory phenomena and suggest that multiple different filtering mechanisms may operate at single synapses.

  14. Low-level chronic exposure to cadmium enhances the risk of long bone fractures: a study on a female rat model of human lifetime exposure.

    PubMed

    Brzóska, Malgorzata M

    2012-01-01

    In the present paper, the hypothesis that low chronic exposure to cadmium (Cd) enhances the risk of long bone fractures was investigated in a female rat model simulating human lifetime exposure in non-Cd-polluted areas. For this purpose, the femur and both tibias of control female rats and those exposed to Cd (1 mg Cd I(-1) in drinking water for 24 months since weaning) were assigned to geometric, densitometric (bone mineral content, BMC, and density, BMD), radiographic and biomechanical studies as well as assessing their chemical composition. The exposure to Cd disturbed mineralization (decreased BMD and minerals content, including calcium, magnesium, zinc, copper and iron) and weakened the biomechanical strength of the femur and tibia, enhancing their fragility. The Z-score values for the BMD revealed osteopenia of the femur and tibia in 20 and 30% of the Cd-exposed female rats, respectively, and osteoporosis in 80 and 70%, respectively. In 30% of the Cd-exposed animals, femoral neck fracture was evident in the radiographic picture. The findings seem to confirm the hypothesis that a low exposure to Cd during the lifetime may be an important risk factor for osteoporosis and fractures of long bones, and especially for femoral neck fracture in elderly women. The results indicate that greater attention should be paid to Cd as an environmental risk factor for the increasing rate of osteoporosis and bone fractures in old population. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  15. SO2 Emissions and Lifetimes: Estimates from Inverse Modeling Using In Situ and Global, Space-Based (SCIAMACHY and OMI) Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lee, Chulkyu; Martin Randall V.; vanDonkelaar, Aaron; Lee, Hanlim; Dickerson, RUssell R.; Hains, Jennifer C.; Krotkov, Nickolay; Richter, Andreas; Vinnikov, Konstantine; Schwab, James J.

    2011-01-01

    Top-down constraints on global sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions are inferred through inverse modeling using SO2 column observations from two satellite instruments (SCIAMACHY and OMI). We first evaluated the S02 column observations with surface SO2 measurements by applying local scaling factors from a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) to SO2 columns retrieved from the satellite instruments. The resulting annual mean surface SO2 mixing ratios for 2006 exhibit a significant spatial correlation (r=0.86, slope=0.91 for SCIAMACHY and r=0.80, slope = 0.79 for OMI) with coincident in situ measurements from monitoring networks throughout the United States and Canada. We evaluate the GEOS-Chem simulation of the SO2 lifetime with that inferred from in situ measurements to verity the applicability of GEOS-Chem for inversion of SO2 columns to emissions. The seasonal mean SO2 lifetime calculated with the GEOS-Chem model over the eastern United States is 13 h in summer and 48 h in winter, compared to lifetimes inferred from in situ measurements of 19 +/- 7 h in summer and 58 +/- 20 h in winter. We apply SO2 columns from SCIAMACHY and OMI to derive a top-down anthropogenic SO2 emission inventory over land by using the local GEOS-Chem relationship between SO2 columns and emissions. There is little seasonal variation in the top-down emissions (<15%) over most major industrial regions providing some confidence in the method. Our global estimate for annual land surface anthropogenic SO2 emissions (52.4 Tg S/yr from SCIAMACHY and 49.9 Tg S / yr from OMI) closely agrees with the bottom-up emissions (54.6 Tg S/yr) in the GEOS-Chem model and exhibits consistency in global distributions with the bottom-up emissions (r = 0.78 for SCIAMACHY, and r = 0.77 for OMI). However, there are significant regional differences.

  16. Fluorescence lifetime attachment LIFA

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Oord, Cornelius J. R.; Stoop, Karel W. J.; van Geest, Lambertus K.

    2001-05-01

    We present the Lambert Instruments Fluorescence Lifetime Attachment LIFA. LIFA enables easy to use and affordable microscopy and macroscopic FLIM. The system implements the homodyne detection scheme for measuring the fluorescence lifetime in each pixel of the image. The microscopy system features an ultra bright LED illuminator, the LI-(mu) Cam intensified CCD camera a high frequency signal generator. The illuminator replaces the excitation light source of a standard fluorescence microscopy, while the LI-(mu) CAM intensified CCD camera is attached to the photo-port. Both the illuminator and the intensifier are modulated at a frequency up to 100 MHz at a series of phase differences. The lifetime image is calculated from the series of images on a personal computer.

  17. Population-based study on infant mortality.

    PubMed

    Lima, Jaqueline Costa; Mingarelli, Alexandre Marchezoni; Segri, Neuber José; Zavala, Arturo Alejandro Zavala; Takano, Olga Akiko

    2017-03-01

    Although Brazil has reduced social, economic and health indicators disparities in the last decade, intra- and inter-regional differences in child mortality rates (CMR) persist in regions such as the state capital of Mato Grosso. This population-based study aimed to investigate factors associated with child mortality in five cohorts of live births (LB) of mothers living in Cuiabá (MT), Brazil, 2006-2010, through probabilistic linkage in 47,018 LB. We used hierarchical logistic regression analysis. Of the 617 child deaths, 48% occurred in the early neonatal period. CMR ranged from 14.6 to 12.0 deaths per thousand LB. The following remained independently associated with death: mothers without companion (OR = 1.32); low number of prenatal consultations (OR = 1.65); low birthweight (OR = 4.83); prematurity (OR = 3.05); Apgar ≤ 7 at the first minute (OR = 3.19); Apgar ≤ 7 at the fifth minute (OR = 4.95); congenital malformations (OR = 14.91) and male gender (OR = 1.26). CMR has declined in Cuiabá, however, there is need to guide public healthcare policies in the prenatal and perinatal period to reduce early neonatal mortality and further studies to identify the causes of preventable deaths.

  18. Severe neonatal hypernatraemia: a population based study.

    PubMed

    Oddie, Sam Joseph; Craven, Vanessa; Deakin, Kathryn; Westman, Janette; Scally, Andrew

    2013-09-01

    To describe incidence, presentation, treatment and short term outcomes of severe neonatal hypernatraemia (SNH, sodium ≥160 mmol/l). Prospective, population based surveillance study over 13 months using the British Paediatric Surveillance Unit. Cases were >33 weeks gestation at birth, fed breast or formula milk and <28 days of age at presentation. Of 62 cases of SNH reported (7, 95% CI 5.4 to 9.0 per 1 00 000 live births), 61 mothers had intended to achieve exclusive breast feeding. Infants presented at median day 6 (range 2-17) with median weight loss of 19.5% (range 8.9-30.9). 12 had jaundice and 57 weight loss as a presenting feature. 58 presented with weight loss ≥15%. 25 babies had not stooled in the 24 h prior to admission. Serum sodium fell by median 12.9 mmol/l per 24 h (range 0-30). No baby died, had seizures or coma or was treated with dialysis or a central line. At discharge, babies had regained 11% of initial birth weight after a median admission of 5 (range 2-14) days. 10 were exclusively breast fed on discharge from hospital. Neonatal hypernatraemia at this level, in this population, is strongly associated with weight loss. It occurs almost exclusively after attempts to initiate breast feeding, occurs uncommonly and does not appear to be associated with serious short term morbidities, beyond admission to hospital.

  19. Collaborations in Population-Based Health Research

    PubMed Central

    Lieu, Tracy A.; Hinrichsen, Virginia L.; Moreira, Andrea; Platt, Richard

    2011-01-01

    The HMO Research Network (HMORN) is a consortium of 16 health care systems with integrated research centers. Approximately 475 people participated in its 17th annual conference, hosted by the Department of Population Medicine, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care Institute and Harvard Medical School. The theme, “Collaborations in Population-Based Health Research,” reflected the network’s emphasis on collaborative studies both among its members and with external investigators. Plenary talks highlighted the initial phase of the HMORN’s work to establish the NIH-HMO Collaboratory, opportunities for public health collaborations, the work of early career investigators, and the state of the network. Platform and poster presentations showcased a broad spectrum of innovative public domain research in areas including disease epidemiology and treatment, health economics, and information technology. Special interest group sessions and ancillary meetings provided venues for informal conversation and structured work among ongoing groups, including networks in cancer, cardiovascular diseases, lung diseases, medical product safety, and mental health. PMID:22090515

  20. New Concepts in Hypertension Management: A Population-Based Perspective.

    PubMed

    Milani, Richard V; Lavie, Carl J; Wilt, Jonathan K; Bober, Robert M; Ventura, Hector O

    Hypertension (HTN) is the most common chronic disease in the U.S., and the standard model of office-based care delivery has yielded suboptimal outcomes, with approximately 50% of affected patients not achieving blood pressure (BP) control. Poor population-level BP control has been primarily attributed to therapeutic inertia and low patient engagement. New models of care delivery utilizing patient-generated health data, comprehensive assessment of social health determinants, computerized algorithms generating tailored interventions, frequent communication and reporting, and non-physician providers organized as an integrated practice unit, have the potential to transform population-based HTN control. This review will highlight the importance of these elements and construct the rationale for a reengineered model of care delivery for populations with HTN. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  1. Lifetimes and configuration mixing in 110Cd

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lobach, Yu. N.; Efimov, A. D.; Pasternak, A. A.

    Lifetimes of excited states in 110Cd have been measured by the Doppler shift attenuation method in the reaction (α,2nγ) at Eα= 25 MeV. Lifetime values for 8 states and lifetime limits for 3 states were obtained. The band structures of 110Cd have been interpreted in terms of a modified version of the interacting boson model (IBM + 2 q.p.). The calculations explain well the excitation energies and electromagnetic transition probabilities up to Jπ= 16+, except for the 10+1 state. The structural features are discussed in terms of collective and two quasiparticle excitations.

  2. Cycle ageing analysis of a LiFePO4/graphite cell with dynamic model validations: Towards realistic lifetime predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarasketa-Zabala, E.; Gandiaga, I.; Martinez-Laserna, E.; Rodriguez-Martinez, L. M.; Villarreal, I.

    2015-02-01

    The present investigation work compares cycling ageing behaviour upon constant operation conditions (static tests) with degradation under non-constant schemes (dynamic tests), through a novel methodology for ageing model dynamic validation. A LFP-based Li-ion cell performance loss is analysed using a DOD and C-rate stress factors Ah-throughput-domain characterisation method, and represented using a semi-empirical model. The proposed stepwise validation approach enables assessing the static ageing tests acceleration factor and systematically improving the ageing model. The result is a simple but comprehensive model. The predictions root-mean-square error, under dynamic cycling operation conditions, is just 1.75%.

  3. Our Allotted Lifetimes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gould, Stephen Jay

    1977-01-01

    It is suggested that measured by the internal clock of heartbeats or breathing, all mammals live a similar lifespan. This is based on the fact that mammals, regardless of size, breathe about 200 million times in their lifetime at a rate of 1 breath for every 4 heartbeats. (AJ)

  4. Colloquium: The neutron lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Wietfeldt, Fred E.; Greene, Geoffrey L.

    2011-10-01

    The decay of the free neutron into a proton, electron, and antineutrino is the prototype semileptonic weak decay and is the simplest example of nuclear beta decay. It played a key role in the early Universe as it determined the ratio of neutrons to protons during the era of primordial light element nucleosynthesis. Neutron decay is physically related to important processes in solar physics and neutrino detection. The mean neutron lifetime has been the subject of more than 20 major experiments done, using a variety of methods, between 1950 and the present. The most precise recent measurements have stated accuracies approaching 0.1%, but are not in good agreement as they differ by as much as 5{sigma} using quoted uncertainties. The history of neutron lifetime measurements is reviewed and the different methods used are described, giving important examples of each. The discrepancies and some systematic issues in the experiments that may be responsible are discussed, and it is shown by means of global averages that the neutron lifetime is likely to lie in the range of 880-884 s. Plans and prospects for future experiments are considered that will address these systematic issues and improve our knowledge of the neutron lifetime.

  5. Colloquium: The neutron lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, Geoffrey L; Wietfeldt, F

    2011-01-01

    The decay of the free neutron into a proton, electron, and antineutrino is the prototype semileptonic weak decay and is the simplest example of nuclear beta decay. It played a key role in the early Universe as it determined the ratio of neutrons to protons during the era of primordial light element nucleosynthesis. Neutron decay is physically related to important processes in solar physics and neutrino detection. The mean neutron lifetime has been the subject of more than 20 major experiments done, using a variety of methods, between 1950 and the present. The most precise recent measurements have stated accuracies approaching 0.1%, but are not in good agreement as they differ by as much as 5 sigma using quoted uncertainties. The history of neutron lifetime measurements is reviewed and the different methods used are described, giving important examples of each. The discrepancies and some systematic issues in the experiments that may be responsible are discussed, and it is shown by means of global averages that the neutron lifetime is likely to lie in the range of 880 884 s. Plans and prospects for future experiments are considered that will address these systematic issues and improve our knowledge of the neutron lifetime.

  6. Our Allotted Lifetimes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gould, Stephen Jay

    1977-01-01

    It is suggested that measured by the internal clock of heartbeats or breathing, all mammals live a similar lifespan. This is based on the fact that mammals, regardless of size, breathe about 200 million times in their lifetime at a rate of 1 breath for every 4 heartbeats. (AJ)

  7. Oral Sex and HPV: Population Based Indications.

    PubMed

    Mishra, Anupam; Verma, Veerendra

    2015-03-01

    Human pappilloma virus (HPV) is well established in etiology of uterine cervical cancers, but its role in head and neck cancer is strongly suggested through many epidemiological and laboratory studies. Although HPV-16 induced oropharyngeal cancer is a distinct molecular entity, its role at other sub-sites (oral cavity, larynx, nasopharynx, hypopharynx) is less well established. Oral sex is supposedly the most commonly practiced unnatural sex across the globe and may prove to be a potential transmitting link between cancers of the uterine cervix and the oropharynx in males particularly in those 10-15% non-smokers. In India with the second largest population (higher population density than China) the oral sex is likely to be a common 'recreation-tool' amongst the majority (poor) and with the concurrent highly prevalent bad cervical/oral hygiene the HPV is likely to synergize other carcinogens. Hence in accordance (or coincidently), in India the cervical cancer happens to be the commonest cancer amongst females while oral/oropharyngeal cancer amongst males. Oral sex as a link between these two cancer types, can largely be argued considering a poor level of evidence in the existing literature. The modern world has even commercialized oral sex in the form of flavored condoms. The inadequate world literature currently is of a low level of evidence to conclude such a relationship because no such specific prospective study has been carried out and also due to wide (and unpredictable) variety of sexual practices, such a relationship can only be speculated. This article briefly reviews the existing literature on various modes and population based indications for HPV to be implicated in head and neck cancer with reference to oral sexual practice.

  8. Population-based emergence of unfamiliar climates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frame, Dave; Joshi, Manoj; Hawkins, Ed; Harrington, Luke J.; de Roiste, Mairead

    2017-06-01

    Time of emergence, which characterizes when significant signals of climate change will emerge from existing variability, is a useful and increasingly common metric. However, a more useful metric for understanding future climate change in the context of past experience may be the ratio of climate signal to noise (S/N)--a measure of the amplitude of change expressed in terms of units of existing variability. Here, we present S/N projections in the context of emergent climates (termed `unusual’, `unfamiliar’ and `unknown’ by reference to an individual’s lifetime), highlighting sensitivity to future emissions scenarios and geographical and human groupings. We show how for large sections of the world’s population, and for several geopolitical international groupings, mitigation can delay the onset of `unknown’ or `unfamiliar’ climates by decades, and perhaps even beyond 2100. Our results demonstrate that the benefits of mitigation accumulate over several decades, a key metric of which is reducing S/N, or keeping climate as familiar as possible. A relationship is also identified between cumulative emissions and patterns of emergent climate signals. Timely mitigation will therefore provide the greatest benefits to those facing the earliest impacts, many of whom are alive now.

  9. Lifetime assessment by intermittent inspection under the mixture Weibull power law model with application to XLPE cables.

    PubMed

    Hirose, H

    1997-01-01

    This paper proposes a new treatment for electrical insulation degradation. Some types of insulation which have been used under various circumstances are considered to degrade at various rates in accordance with their stress circumstances. The cross-linked polyethylene (XLPE) insulated cables inspected by major Japanese electric companies clearly indicate such phenomena. By assuming that the inspected specimen is sampled from one of the clustered groups, a mixed degradation model can be constructed. Since the degradation of the insulation under common circumstances is considered to follow a Weibull distribution, a mixture model and a Weibull power law can be combined. This is called The mixture Weibull power law model. By using the maximum likelihood estimation for the newly proposed model to Japanese 22 and 33 kV insulation class cables, they are clustered into a certain number of groups by using the AIC and the generalized likelihood ratio test method. The reliability of the cables at specified years are assessed.

  10. Lifetime of Wannier-Stark States

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glück, M.; Kolovsky, A. R.; Korsch, H. J.

    1999-08-01

    The lifetime of a Bloch particle in a homogeneous field is calculated numerically as a function of the field amplitude. A simple model explaining the characteristic features of the field dependence of the lifetime is introduced. The theoretical results are compared with the experimental data of C. F. Bharucha et al. [Phys. Rev. A 55, R857 (1997)] obtained for cold sodium atoms in an accelerated optical lattice.

  11. Do quasars have cosmologically long lifetimes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chanan, G. A.

    1982-01-01

    An alternative explanation to gravitational lensing is examined, by which problems inherent in space density evolution are avoided without invoking gravitational effects. Apparent and unreal density evolution follows as an immediate consequence, if the quasar lifetimes that are the only free parameter in the model proposed are of the order of three billion years. If such lifetimes are the case, while quasars may occur less frequently than has been thought, the local density of quasars may have been grossly underestimated.

  12. Trajectories of maternal depression: a 27-year population-based prospective study.

    PubMed

    Najman, J M; Plotnikova, M; Williams, G M; Alati, R; Mamun, A A; Scott, J; Wray, N; Clavarino, A M

    2017-02-01

    To identify distinct trajectories of depression experienced by a population-based sample of women over a 27-year period and to assess the validity of the derived trajectories. The Mater University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy is a birth cohort study which commenced in 1981. Women (N = 6753) were interviewed at their first clinic visit, at 6 months, then 5, 14, 21 and 27 years after the birth of their child, using the Delusions Symptoms - States Inventory. Some 3561 (52.7%) women were followed up at 27 years, with 3337 (49.4%) of the sample completing the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). Depression trajectories over a 27-year period were identified using Latent Class Growth Modelling (LCGM). LCGM was used to identify respondents with similar patterns of depression over a 27-year period. At the 27-year follow-up women who completed the CIDI, were stratified according to their trajectory group membership. Three trajectory groups, each with different life-course patterns of depression were identified. The low/no symptoms of depression trajectory group comprised 48.4% of women. The mid-depression group (41.7%) had a consistent pattern of occasional symptoms of depression. The high/escalating trajectory group comprised 9.9% of the women in the study. We then examined each trajectory group based on their completion of the CIDI at the 27-year follow-up. Using the CIDI, 27.0% of women in the study had met the DSM-IV criteria for lifetime ever depression by their mean age of 46.5 years. The responses to the CIDI differed greatly for each of the trajectory groups, suggesting that the trajectories validly reflect different life histories of depression. The high/escalating trajectory group had an earlier age of first onset, more frequent episodes, longer duration of each episode of depression and experienced higher levels of impairment for their episodes of depression. For the high symptoms trajectory group, clinically significant depression is estimated

  13. Implementation of Remaining Useful Lifetime Transformer Models in the Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management Suite

    SciTech Connect

    Agarwal, Vivek; Lybeck, Nancy J.; Pham, Binh; Rusaw, Richard; Bickford, Randall

    2015-02-01

    Research and development efforts are required to address aging and reliability concerns of the existing fleet of nuclear power plants. As most plants continue to operate beyond the license life (i.e., towards 60 or 80 years), plant components are more likely to incur age-related degradation mechanisms. To assess and manage the health of aging plant assets across the nuclear industry, the Electric Power Research Institute has developed a web-based Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite for diagnosis and prognosis. FW-PHM is a set of web-based diagnostic and prognostic tools and databases, comprised of the Diagnostic Advisor, the Asset Fault Signature Database, the Remaining Useful Life Advisor, and the Remaining Useful Life Database, that serves as an integrated health monitoring architecture. The main focus of this paper is the implementation of prognostic models for generator step-up transformers in the FW-PHM Suite. One prognostic model discussed is based on the functional relationship between degree of polymerization, (the most commonly used metrics to assess the health of the winding insulation in a transformer) and furfural concentration in the insulating oil. The other model is based on thermal-induced degradation of the transformer insulation. By utilizing transformer loading information, established thermal models are used to estimate the hot spot temperature inside the transformer winding. Both models are implemented in the Remaining Useful Life Database of the FW-PHM Suite. The Remaining Useful Life Advisor utilizes the implemented prognostic models to estimate the remaining useful life of the paper winding insulation in the transformer based on actual oil testing and operational data.

  14. Lifetime interpersonal violence and self-reported chlamydia trachomatis diagnosis among California women.

    PubMed

    Alvarez, Jennifer; Pavao, Joanne; Mack, Katelyn P; Chow, Joan M; Baumrind, Nikki; Kimerling, Rachel

    2009-01-01

    To examine the relationship between cumulative exposure to various types of interpersonal violence throughout the life span and self-reported history of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) diagnosis in a population-based sample of California women. This was a cross-sectional analysis of a population-based survey of California women aged 18-44 years (n = 3521). Participants reported their experience of multiple types of interpersonal violence: physical or sexual abuse in childhood or adulthood and intimate partner violence (IPV) in the past 12 months. Current posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depressive symptoms were also reported. Separate logistic regression models assessed the association between experiencing each type of interpersonal violence, as well as women's cumulative exposure to violence, and past CT diagnosis, adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, and poverty, as well as mental health problems. Six percent of women reported a past diagnosis of CT, and 40.8% reported experiencing at least one type of interpersonal violence in their lifetime. All types of violence were significantly associated with higher odds of having a past CT diagnosis even after controlling for sociodemographics. Women who reported experiencing four or more types of violence experiences had over five times the odds of reporting a lifetime CT diagnosis compared with women who never experienced interpersonal violence (adjusted odds ratio = 5.71, 95% CI 3.27-9.58). Current PTSD and depressive symptoms did not significantly affect the relationship between a woman's cumulative experience of violence and her risk of past CT diagnosis. There is a robust association between experiencing multiple forms of violence and having been diagnosed with CT. Women who seek treatment for sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), such as CT, should be assessed for their lifetime history of violence, especially violence in their current intimate relationships. Sexual risk reduction counseling may also be important

  15. The atmospheric lifetime of black carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cape, J. N.; Coyle, M.; Dumitrean, P.

    2012-11-01

    Black carbon (BC) in the atmosphere contributes to the human health effects of particulate matter and contributes to radiative forcing of climate. The lifetime of BC, particularly the smaller particle sizes (PM2.5) which can be transported over long distances, is therefore an important factor in determining the range of such effects, and the spatial footprint of emission controls. Theory and models suggest that the typical lifetime of BC is around one week. The frequency distributions of measurements of a range of hydrocarbons at a remote rural site in southern Scotland (Auchencorth Moss) between 2007 and 2010 have been used to quantify the relationship between atmospheric lifetime and the geometric standard deviation of observed concentration. The analysis relies on an assumed common major emission source for hydrocarbons and BC, namely diesel-engined vehicles. The logarithm of the standard deviation of the log-transformed concentration data is linearly related to hydrocarbon lifetime, and the same statistic for BC can be used to assess the lifetime of BC relative to the hydrocarbons. Annual average data show BC lifetimes in the range 4-12 days, for an assumed OH concentration of 7 × 105 cm-3. At this site there is little difference in BC lifetime between winter and summer, despite a 3-fold difference in relative hydrocarbon lifetimes. This observation confirms the role of wet deposition as an important removal process for BC, as there is no difference in precipitation between winter and summer at this site. BC lifetime was significantly greater in 2010, which had 23% less rainfall than the preceding 3 years.

  16. Incidence and Mortality of Obstructive Lung Disease in Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Population-Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Nannini, Carlotta; Medina-Velasquez, Yimy F.; Achenbach, Sara J.; Crowson, Cynthia S.; Ryu, Jay H.; Vassallo, Robert; Gabriel, Sherine E.; Matteson, Eric L.; Bongartz, Tim

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE Pulmonary disease represents an important extra-articular manifestation of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). While the association of RA and interstitial lung disease is widely acknowledged, obstructive lung disease (OLD) in RA is less well understood. We therefore aimed to assess incidence, risk factors and mortality of OLD in patients with RA. METHODS We examined a population-based incident cohort of patients with RA and a comparison cohort of individuals without RA. OLD was defined using a strict composite criterion. Cox-proportional hazards models were used to compare OLD incidence between the RA and comparator cohort, to investigate risk factors and to explore the impact of OLD on patient survival. RESULTS 594 patients with RA and 596 subjects without RA were followed for a mean of 16.3 and 19.4 years, respectively. The lifetime risk of developing OLD was 9.6% for RA patients and 6.2% for subjects without RA; hazard ratio (HR) 1.54 (95% CI 1.01 to 2.34). The risk of developing OLD was higher among male patients, current or former smokers and for individuals with more severe RA. Survival of RA patients diagnosed with OLD was worse compared to those without OLD (HR 2.09, 95% CI 1.47 to 2.97). CONCLUSION Patients with RA are at higher risk of developing OLD, which is significantly associated with premature mortality. Effective diagnostic and therapeutic strategies to detect and manage OLD in patients with RA may help to improve survivorship in these patients. PMID:23436637

  17. Abuse against women in pregnancy: a population-based study from Eastern India.

    PubMed

    Babu, Bontha V; Kar, Shantanu K

    2012-01-01

    Violence against women is widely recognized as an important public health problem. However, the magnitude of the problem among pregnant women is not well known in several parts of India. Hence, the prevalence and characteristics associated with various forms of domestic violence against women in pregnancy were studied in Eastern India. A population-based cross-sectional sample survey covering married women with a history of at least one full-term pregnancy (n 1525) was carried out in the Orissa, West Bengal and Jharkhand states of India. Interviews were conducted using a pre-piloted structured questionnaire to inquire about physical, psychological and sexual domestic violence. Data on socioeconomic characteristics and behaviours were also collected. The association of independent variables with domestic violence were examined by using logistic regression models. The prevalence of physical, psychological and sexual domestic violence during a recent pregnancy was found to be 7.1%, 30.6% and 10.4% respectively, and the lifetime prevalence during all pregnancies was 8.3%, 33.4% and 12.6% respectively. Urban living, higher maternal age and husbands' alcoholism were the factors associated with domestic violence in pregnancy. Women belonging to lower social groups were less likely to have physical domestic violence. Factors such as higher prevalence of undesirable behaviours like denying adequate rest and diet, demand for more sex, not providing antenatal care and pressure for male child were also associated with domestic violence in pregnancy. Considerable proportions of women experience some type of domestic violence during pregnancy. Health-care providers should be able to recognize and respond to pregnant women's victimization and refer them for appropriate support and care.

  18. Transgender Youth Substance Use Disparities: Results From a Population-Based Sample.

    PubMed

    Day, Jack K; Fish, Jessica N; Perez-Brumer, Amaya; Hatzenbuehler, Mark L; Russell, Stephen T

    2017-09-20

    The purpose of this study was to examine rates of substance use between transgender and nontransgender youth using a representative population-based sample and to examine mediating risk factors. A statewide cross-sectional sample of California middle and high schools collected between 2013 and 2015. This representative sample of students in California included 335 transgender and 31,737 nontransgender youth. Using multivariate linear and logistic regression, we assessed differences between transgender and nontransgender youth in substance use behaviors related to alcohol, cigarette, marijuana, other illicit drugs, polysubstance use, and heavy episodic drinking. Substance use was assessed with lifetime use, age of onset, and past 30-day use for alcohol, cigarettes, and marijuana. Past 30-day use was also assessed for other illicit drugs and polysubstance use. Models were adjusted for demographics and risk factors including victimization, depressive symptoms, and perceived risk of substance use. The prevalence of substance use was 2.5-4 times higher for transgender youth compared with their nontransgender peers (depending on the substance). Transgender youth were also at greater risk for early age of onset and recent substance use than nontransgender youth. In addition, psychosocial risk factors related to victimization, depressive symptoms, and perceived risk of substance use partially mediated the relationship between gender identity and substance use. Using data from the first representative study of youth to include a measure of gender identity, we show that transgender youth are at heightened risk for substance use compared with nontransgender peers. Future research is needed to identify the structural and psychosocial mechanisms that drive these disparities. Copyright © 2017 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Estimating the long-term effects of in vitro fertilization in Greece: an analysis based on a lifetime-investment model

    PubMed Central

    Fragoulakis, Vassilis; Maniadakis, Nikolaos

    2013-01-01

    Objective To quantify the economic effects of a child conceived by in vitro fertilization (IVF) in terms of net tax revenue from the state’s perspective in Greece. Methods Based on previous international experience, a mathematical model was developed to assess the lifetime productivity of a single individual and his/her lifetime transactions with governmental agencies. The model distinguished among three periods in the economic life cycle of an individual: (1) early life, when the government primarily contributes resources through child tax credits, health care, and educational expenses; (2) employment, when individuals begin returning resources through taxes; and (3) retirement, when the government expends additional resources on pensions and health care. The cost of a live birth with IVF was based on the modification of a previously published model developed by the authors. All outcomes were discounted at a 3% discount rate. The data inputs – namely, the economic or demographic variables – were derived from the National Statistical Secretariat of Greece and other relevant sources. To deal with uncertainty, bias-corrected uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated based on 5000 Monte Carlo simulations. In addition, to examine the robustness of our results, other one-way sensitivity analyses were also employed. Results The cost of IVF per birth was estimated at €17,015 (95% UI: €13,932–€20,200). The average projected income generated by an individual throughout his/her productive life was €258,070 (95% UI: €185,376–€339,831). In addition, his/her life tax contribution was estimated at €133,947 (95% UI: €100,126–€177,375), while the discounted governmental expenses for elderly and underage individuals were €67,624 (95% UI: €55,211–€83,930). Hence, the net present value of IVF was €60,435 (95% UI: €33,651–€94,330), representing a 182% net return on investment. Results remained constant under various assumptions for the

  20. Cross-sectional study of HPV-16 infection in a population-based subsample of Hispanic adults

    PubMed Central

    Ortiz, A P; Unger, E R; Muñoz, C; Panicker, G; Tortolero-Luna, G; Soto-Salgado, M; Otero, Y; Suárez, E; Pérez, C M

    2014-01-01

    Objective This study aimed to estimate the prevalence and correlates of seropositivity to human papillomavirus (HPV)-16 in a subsample of adults who participated in the parent study Epidemiology of Hepatitis C in the adult population of Puerto Rico (PR). Setting The parent study was a population-based household survey aimed to estimate the seroprevalence of hepatitis C and other viral infections (hepatitis A, hepatitis B, HIV, and herpes simplex type 2) in PR (n=1654) between 2005 and 2008. Participants A subsample of the last 450 consecutive adults aged 21–64 years, recruited between February 2007 and January 2008, who participated in the parent study and agreed to participate in HPV testing. Primary and secondary outcome measures The samples were tested by ELISA for HPV-16 viral-like particle-specific immunoglobulin G. Information on sociodemographic, health, and lifestyle characteristics was collected. Logistic regression modelling was used to estimate the prevalence odds ratio (POR) to assess factors associated to HPV-16 seropositivity. Results Prevalence of seropositivity to HPV-16 was 11.3%. Seroprevalence was higher in women (15.8%) than men (5.6%; p=0.001). After adjusting for age and sex, ever smokers (POR 2.06, 95% CI 1.08 to 3.92) and participants with at least five lifetime sexual partners (POR 2.91, 95% CI 1.24 to 6.81) were more likely to be HPV-16 seropositive. Conclusions HPV-16 seropositivity is similar to that reported in the USA (10.4%) for NHANES 2003–2004 participants, although different assays were used in these studies. While future studies should evaluate HPV seroprevalence using a larger population-based sample, our results highlight the need to further understand the burden of HPV infection and HPV-related malignancies in PR, population with a low vaccine uptake. PMID:24496698

  1. Prevalence of trigeminal neuralgia and persistent idiopathic facial pain: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Daniel; Obermann, Mark; Yoon, Min-Suk; Poitz, Franziska; Hansen, Niels; Slomke, Marc-Andre; Dommes, Peter; Gizewski, Elke; Diener, Hans-Christoph; Katsarava, Zaza

    2011-11-01

    To estimate the lifetime prevalence of trigeminal neuralgia (TN) and persistent idiopathic facial pain (PIFP) in a population-based sample in Germany. A total of 3336 responders of 6000 contacted inhabitants of the city of Essen in Germany were screened using a self-assessment questionnaire. 327 individuals, who reported recurrent facial pain and randomly selected 150 (5% of 3009) screening negative subjects, received a phone interview by one of six neurologists and if necessary a face-to-face examination. Those with suspected TN or PIFP following the phone interview underwent neurological examination by two neurologists who were unaware of the presumed diagnosis. A random group of 25 (10% of 247) phone interview negative subjects was examined face-to-face. All suspected cases of PIFP received otorhinolaryngological examination and diagnostic cranial magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). In TN patients the number of vessel-nerve contacts was determined by thin-slice cranial MRI. Lifetime prevalence of TN was estimated to be 0.3% [10 of 3336; 95% CI 0.1-0.5%], of PIFP 0.03% [1 of 3336; 95% CI < 0.08%]. Thin-slice cranial MRI detected five vessel-nerve contacts and no symptomatic lesions in the 10 TN patients. This large population-based study revealed that TN and PIFP are rare facial pain disorders.

  2. Utilisation of Modeling, Stress Analysis, Kinematics Optimisation, and Hypothetical Estimation of Lifetime in the Design Process of Mobile Working Machines

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izrael, Gregor; Bukoveczky, Juraj; Gulan, Ladislav

    2011-12-01

    The contribution deals with several methods used in the construction process such as model creation, verification of technical parameters of the machine, and life estimation of the selected modules. Determination of life cycle for mobile working machines, and their carrying modules respectively by investigation and subsequent processing of results gained by service measurements. Machine life claimed by a producer is only relative, because life of these machines depends not only on the way of work on that particular machine but also the state of material which is manipulated by the machine and in great extent the operator, their observance of security regulations, and prescribed working conditions.

  3. Discriminating famous from fictional names based on lifetime experience: evidence in support of a signal-detection model based on finite mixture distributions.

    PubMed

    Bowles, Ben; Harlow, Iain M; Meeking, Melissa M; Köhler, Stefan

    2012-01-01

    It is widely accepted that signal-detection mechanisms contribute to item-recognition memory decisions that involve discriminations between targets and lures based on a controlled laboratory study episode. Here, the authors employed mathematical modeling of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) to determine whether and how a signal-detection mechanism contributes to discriminations between moderately famous and fictional names based on lifetime experience. Unique to fame judgments is a lack of control over participants' previous exposure to the stimuli deemed "targets" by the experimenter; specifically, if they pertain to moderately famous individuals, participants may have had no prior exposure to a substantial proportion of the famous names presented. The authors adopted established models from the recognition-memory literature to examine the quantitative fit that could be obtained through the inclusion of signal-detection and threshold mechanisms for two data sets. They first established that a signal-detection process operating on graded evidence is critical to account for the fame judgment data they collected. They then determined whether the graded memory evidence for famous names would best be described with one distribution with greater variance than that for the fictional names, or with two finite mixture distributions for famous names that correspond to items with or without prior exposure, respectively. Analyses revealed that a model that included a d' parameter, as well as a mixture parameter, provided the best compromise between number of parameters and quantitative fit. Additional comparisons between this equal-variance signal-detection mixture model and a dual-process model, which included a high-threshold process in addition to a signal-detection process, also favored the former model. In support of the conjecture that the mixture parameter captures participants' prior experience, the authors found that it was increased when the analysis was

  4. Measurement of Beam Lifetime and Applications for SPEAR3

    SciTech Connect

    Huang, Xiaobiao; Corbett, Jeff; /SLAC

    2011-04-05

    Beam lifetime studies for the SPEAR3 storage ring are presented. The three lifetime components are separated with lifetime measurements under various combinations of beam currents and fill patterns and vertical scraper scans. Touschek lifetime is studied with rf voltage scans and with the horizontal or vertical scrapers inserted. The measurements are explained with calculations based on the calibrated lattice model. Quantum lifetime measurements are performed with reduced longitudinal and horizontal apertures, respectively, from which we deduce the radiation energy loss down to a few keV per revolution and the horizontal beam size.

  5. Subdural haemorrhages in infants: population based study

    PubMed Central

    Jayawant, S; Rawlinson, A; Gibbon, F; Price, J; Schulte, J; Sharples, P; Sibert, J R; Kemp, A M

    1998-01-01

    Objectives To identify the incidence, clinical outcome, and associated factors of subdural haemorrhage in children under 2 years of age, and to determine how such cases were investigated and how many were due to child abuse. Design Population based case series. Setting South Wales and south west England. Subjects Children under 2 years of age who had a subdural haemorrhage. We excluded neonates who developed subdural haemorrhage during their stay on a neonatal unit and infants who developed a subdural haemorrhage after infection or neurosurgical intervention. Main outcome measures Incidence and clinical outcome of subdural haemorrhage in infants, the number of cases caused by child abuse, the investigations such children received, and associated risk factors. Results Thirty three children (23 boys and 10 girls) were identified with subdural haemorrhage. The incidence was 12.8/100 000 children/year (95% confidence interval 5.4 to 20.2). Twenty eight cases (85%) were under 1 year of age. The incidence of subdural haemorrhage in children under 1 year of age was 21.0/100 000 children/year and was therefore higher than in the older children. The clinical outcome was poor: nine infants died and 15 had profound disability. Only 22 infants had the basic investigations of a full blood count, coagulation screen, computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging, skeletal survey or bone scan, and ophthalmological examination. In retrospect, 27 cases (82%) were highly suggestive of abuse. Conclusion Subdural haemorrhage is common in infancy and carries a poor prognosis; three quarters of such infants die or have profound disability. Most cases are due to child abuse, but in a few the cause is unknown. Some children with subdural haemorrhage do not undergo appropriate investigations. We believe the clinical investigation of such children should include a full multidisciplinary social assessment, an ophthalmic examination, a skeletal survey supplemented with a bone scan or a

  6. Maximizing TDRS Command Load Lifetime

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brown, Aaron J.

    2002-01-01

    The GNC software onboard ISS utilizes TORS command loads, and a simplistic model of TORS orbital motion to generate onboard TORS state vectors. Each TORS command load contains five "invariant" orbital elements which serve as inputs to the onboard propagation algorithm. These elements include semi-major axis, inclination, time of last ascending node crossing, right ascension of ascending node, and mean motion. Running parallel to the onboard software is the TORS Command Builder Tool application, located in the JSC Mission Control Center. The TORS Command Builder Tool is responsible for building the TORS command loads using a ground TORS state vector, mirroring the onboard propagation algorithm, and assessing the fidelity of current TORS command loads onboard ISS. The tool works by extracting a ground state vector at a given time from a current TORS ephemeris, and then calculating the corresponding "onboard" TORS state vector at the same time using the current onboard TORS command load. The tool then performs a comparison between these two vectors and displays the relative differences in the command builder tool GUI. If the RSS position difference between these two vectors exceeds the tolerable lim its, a new command load is built using the ground state vector and uplinked to ISS. A command load's lifetime is therefore defined as the time from when a command load is built to the time the RSS position difference exceeds the tolerable limit. From the outset of TORS command load operations (STS-98), command load lifetime was limited to approximately one week due to the simplicity of both the onboard propagation algorithm, and the algorithm used by the command builder tool to generate the invariant orbital elements. It was soon desired to extend command load lifetime in order to minimize potential risk due to frequent ISS commanding. Initial studies indicated that command load lifetime was most sensitive to changes in mean motion. Finding a suitable value for mean motion

  7. A cross-sectional population-based study on the association of personality traits with anxiety and psychological stress: Joint modeling of mixed outcomes using shared random effects approach

    PubMed Central

    Feizi, Awat; Keshteli, Ammar Hassanzadeh; Nouri, Fatemeh; Roohafza, Hamidreza; Adibi, Peyman

    2014-01-01

    Background: Previous studies have showed some evidences about the relationship between personality traits particularly neuroticism and extroversion, separately, with psychological stress and anxiety. In the current study, we clarified the magnitude of joint interdependence (co-morbidity) of anxiety (continuous) and Psychological stress (dichotomous) as dependent variables of mixed type with five-factor personality traits as independent variables. Materials and Methods: Data from 3180 participants who attended in the cross-sectional population-based “study on the epidemiology of psychological, alimentary health and nutrition” and completed self-administered questionnaires about demographic and life style, gastrointestinal disorders, personality traits, perceived intensity of stress, social support, and psychological outcome was analyzed using shared random effect approach in R Free software. Results: The results indicated high scores of neuroticism increase the chance of high psychological stress (odds ratio [OR] = 5.1; P < 0.001) and anxiety score (B = 1.73; P < 0.001) after adjustment for the probable confounders. In contrast, those who had higher scores of extraversion and conscientiousness experienced lower levels of anxiety score (B = −0.54 and −0.23, respectively, P < 0.001) and psychological stress (OR = 0.36 and 0.65, respectively, P < 0.001). Furthermore, higher score of agreeableness had significant negative relationship with anxiety (B = −0.32, P < 0.001). Conclusion: The present study indicated that the scores of neuroticism, extraversion, agreeableness and conscientiousness strongly predict both anxiety and psychological stress in Iranian adult population. Due to likely mechanism of genetic and environmental factors on the relationships between personality traits and psychological disorders, it is suggested to perform longitudinal studies focusing on both genetic and environmental factors in Iranian population. PMID:25535497

  8. A cross-sectional population-based study on the association of personality traits with anxiety and psychological stress: Joint modeling of mixed outcomes using shared random effects approach.

    PubMed

    Feizi, Awat; Keshteli, Ammar Hassanzadeh; Nouri, Fatemeh; Roohafza, Hamidreza; Adibi, Peyman

    2014-09-01

    Previous studies have showed some evidences about the relationship between personality traits particularly neuroticism and extroversion, separately, with psychological stress and anxiety. In the current study, we clarified the magnitude of joint interdependence (co-morbidity) of anxiety (continuous) and Psychological stress (dichotomous) as dependent variables of mixed type with five-factor personality traits as independent variables. Data from 3180 participants who attended in the cross-sectional population-based "study on the epidemiology of psychological, alimentary health and nutrition" and completed self-administered questionnaires about demographic and life style, gastrointestinal disorders, personality traits, perceived intensity of stress, social support, and psychological outcome was analyzed using shared random effect approach in R Free software. The results indicated high scores of neuroticism increase the chance of high psychological stress (odds ratio [OR] = 5.1; P < 0.001) and anxiety score (B = 1.73; P < 0.001) after adjustment for the probable confounders. In contrast, those who had higher scores of extraversion and conscientiousness experienced lower levels of anxiety score (B = -0.54 and -0.23, respectively, P < 0.001) and psychological stress (OR = 0.36 and 0.65, respectively, P < 0.001). Furthermore, higher score of agreeableness had significant negative relationship with anxiety (B = -0.32, P < 0.001). The present study indicated that the scores of neuroticism, extraversion, agreeableness and conscientiousness strongly predict both anxiety and psychological stress in Iranian adult population. Due to likely mechanism of genetic and environmental factors on the relationships between personality traits and psychological disorders, it is suggested to perform longitudinal studies focusing on both genetic and environmental factors in Iranian population.

  9. Parenting and risk for mood, anxiety and substance use disorders: a study in population-based male twins

    PubMed Central

    Gardner, Charles O.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Hettema, John M.

    2013-01-01

    Background Previous studies consistently identified a relationship between parenting behavior and psychopathology. In this study, we extended prior analyses performed in female twins to a large sample of twins from male–male pairs. Methods We used interview data on 2,609 adult male twins from a population-based twin registry. We examined the association between three retrospectively reported parenting dimensions (coldness, protectiveness, and authoritarianism) and lifetime history of seven common psychiatric and substance use disorders. Using univariate structural equation modeling, we also examined the influence of the genetic and environmental factors on parenting. Results Examined individually, coldness was consistently associated with risk for a broad range of adult psychopathology. Averaged odds of psychiatric disorders associated with parenting were increased between 26 and 36 %. When the three parenting dimensions were examined together, coldness remained significant for major depression, phobia, and generalized anxiety disorder. Controlling for other disorders, the associations between the parenting dimensions and psychopathology were non-specific. Twin fitting model demonstrated that modest heritability accounted for parenting, whereas most variance resulted from the non-shared environment. Conclusions Based on our current and prior findings, there is broad similarity in the impact of parenting on adult psychopathology between men and women. PMID:23344783

  10. Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

    PubMed Central

    Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

    2013-01-01

    Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

  11. Psychiatric and substance-use comorbidities associated with lifetime crack cocaine use in young adults in the general population.

    PubMed

    Narvaez, Joana C M; Jansen, Karen; Pinheiro, Ricardo T; Kapczinski, Flávio; Silva, Ricardo A; Pechansky, Flávio; Magalhães, Pedro V

    2014-08-01

    To assess the association between lifetime crack cocaine use and psychiatric (post-traumatic stress disorder, current depression, current dysthymia, generalized anxiety disorder, panic disorder with agoraphobia, social phobia, as well as SRQ scores and suicide risk) and substance-use disorders (tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, cocaine, amphetamine, inhalants, sedatives, hallucinogens and opioids) in youth in the general population of the city of Pelotas, RS. This was a cross-sectional population-based study, involving 1560 participants between 18 and 24 ears old. Lifetime substance use and abuse were investigated using the ASSIST inventory. Psychiatric comorbidities were assessed using the Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview and symptoms of common mental disorders were evaluated with the Self-Reported Questionnaire (SRQ). The prevalence of lifetime crack cocaine use in the sample was 2.5%. Its use was associated with total SRW scores and the presence of post-traumatic stress disorder, antisocial personality disorder and suicide risk in the final regression model. Tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, cocaine, amphetamine and cocaine dependence were also associated with lifetime use of crack cocaine. Youth with a history of crack cocaine use had a higher prevalence of psychiatric conditions such as post-traumatic stress disorder, as well as an increased risk of tobacco, alcohol, cannabis, cocaine, amphetamine and inhalant use and dependence. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  12. Global three-dimensional model calculations of the budgets and present-day atmospheric lifetimes of CF2ClCFCl2 (CFC-113) and CHClF2 (CFC-22)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golombek, Amram; Prinn, Ronald G.

    1989-01-01

    The annual percentage increases in concentrations of the chlorofluorocarbons CFC-113 (an industrial solvent) and CFC-22 (a refrigerant) are the highest among major chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere today. The present-day atmospheric lifetimes for these species are computed using a global three-dimensional dynamical-chemical model. The present-day lifetimes of both are long (15.5 years for CFC-22 and 136 or 195 years for CFC-113, depending on assumed O2 absorption cross sections), underscoring the need to decrease their emissions in order to minimize their future role in ozone destruction and greenhouse warming.

  13. Global three-dimensional model calculations of the budgets and present-day atmospheric lifetimes of CF2ClCFCl2 (CFC-113) and CHClF2 (CFC-22)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Golombek, Amram; Prinn, Ronald G.

    1989-01-01

    The annual percentage increases in concentrations of the chlorofluorocarbons CFC-113 (an industrial solvent) and CFC-22 (a refrigerant) are the highest among major chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere today. The present-day atmospheric lifetimes for these species are computed using a global three-dimensional dynamical-chemical model. The present-day lifetimes of both are long (15.5 years for CFC-22 and 136 or 195 years for CFC-113, depending on assumed O2 absorption cross sections), underscoring the need to decrease their emissions in order to minimize their future role in ozone destruction and greenhouse warming.

  14. Health economic evaluation of Human Papillomavirus vaccines in women from Venezuela by a lifetime Markov cohort model.

    PubMed

    Bardach, Ariel Esteban; Garay, Osvaldo Ulises; Calderón, María; Pichón-Riviére, Andrés; Augustovski, Federico; Martí, Sebastián García; Cortiñas, Paula; Gonzalez, Marino; Naranjo, Laura T; Gomez, Jorge Alberto; Caporale, Joaquín Enzo

    2017-02-02

    Cervical cancer (CC) and genital warts (GW) are a significant public health issue in Venezuela. Our objective was to assess the cost-effectiveness of the two available vaccines, bivalent and quadrivalent, against Human Papillomavirus (HPV) in Venezuelan girls in order to inform decision-makers. A previously published Markov cohort model, informed by the best available evidence, was adapted to the Venezuelan context to evaluate the effects of vaccination on health and healthcare costs from the perspective of the healthcare payer in an 11-year-old girls cohort of 264,489. Costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were discounted at 5%. Eight scenarios were analyzed to depict the cost-effectiveness under alternative vaccine prices, exchange rates and dosing schemes. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Compared to screening only, the bivalent and quadrivalent vaccines were cost-saving in all scenarios, avoiding 2,310 and 2,143 deaths, 4,781 and 4,431 CCs up to 18,459 GW for the quadrivalent vaccine and gaining 4,486 and 4,395 discounted QALYs respectively. For both vaccines, the main determinants of variations in the incremental costs-effectiveness ratio after running deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were transition probabilities, vaccine and cancer-treatment costs and HPV 16 and 18 distribution in CC cases. When comparing vaccines, none of them was consistently more cost-effective than the other. In sensitivity analyses, for these comparisons, the main determinants were GW incidence, the level of cross-protection and, for some scenarios, vaccines costs. Immunization with the bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccines showed to be cost-saving or cost-effective in Venezuela, falling below the threshold of one Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita (104,404 VEF) per QALY gained. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of these results.

  15. Measurements of heavy quark and lepton lifetimes

    SciTech Connect

    Jaros, J.A.

    1985-02-01

    The PEP/PETRA energy range has proved to be well-suited for the study of the lifetimes of hadrons containing the b and c quarks and the tau lepton for several reasons. First, these states comprise a large fraction of the total interaction rate in e/sup +/e/sup -/ annihilation and can be cleanly identified. Second, the storage rings have operated at high luminosity and so produced these exotic states copiously. And finally, thanks to the interplay of the Fermi coupling strength, the quark and lepton masses, and the beam energy, the expected decay lengths are in the 1/2 mm range and so are comparatively easy to measure. This pleasant coincidence of cleanly identified and abundant signal with potentially large effects has made possible the first measurements of two fundamental weak couplings, tau ..-->.. nu/sub tau/W and b ..-->.. cW. These measurements have provided a sharp test of the standard model and allowed, for the first time, the full determination of the magnitudes of the quark mixing matrix. This paper reviews the lifetime studies made at PEP during the past year. It begins with a brief review of the three detectors, DELCO, MAC and MARK II, which have reported lifetime measurements. Next it discusses two new measurements of the tau lifetime, and briefly reviews a measurement of the D/sup 0/ lifetime. Finally, it turns to measurements of the B lifetime, which are discussed in some detail. 18 references, 14 figures, 1 table.

  16. Damage Mechanics Approach for Bearing Lifetime Prognostics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Qiu, Jing; Seth, Brij B.; Liang, Steven Y.; Zhang, Cheng

    2002-09-01

    The ability to achieve accurate bearing prognostics is critical to the optimal maintenance of rotating machinery in the interest of cost and productivity. However, techniques to real time predict the lifetime of a bearing under practical operating conditions have not been well developed. In this paper, a stiffness-based prognostic model for bearing systems based on vibration response analysis and damage mechanics is discussed. As the bearing system is considered as a single-degree-of-freedom vibratory system, its natural frequency and its acceleration amplitude at the natural frequency can be related to the system stiffness. On the other hand, the relationship between failure lifetime, running time and stiffness variation can be established from the damage mechanics. Combining the above two, the natural frequency and the acceleration amplitude of a bearing system can be related to its running time and failure lifetime. Thus, the failure lifetime of a bearing system can be predicted on-line based on vibration measurement. Experiments have been performed on a tapered roller bearing life testing stand under various operation conditions to calibrate and to validate the proposed model. The comparison between model-calculated data and experimental results indicates that this model can be used to effectively predict the failure lifetime and the remaining life of a bearing system.

  17. Population-based register of stroke: manual of operations.

    PubMed

    Giampaoli, Simona; Hammar, Niklas; Adany, Roza; De Peretti, Christine

    2007-12-01

    Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death and hospitalization in both sexes in nearly all countries of Europe. The main forms of cardiovascular disease are ischaemic heart disease and stroke. Stroke by itself is the second leading cause of death in the European Union, and the annual number of cases of stroke is expected to increase within the next few decades, mainly owing to a growth in the proportion of older people. Stroke is an expensive disease because of the large number of premature deaths, ongoing disability in survivors, and the impact on families or caregivers and on health services (treatment and rehabilitation). Therefore, there is a pressing need to make stroke prevention and treatment a priority, to reduce the growing health burden and lessen its socioeconomic impact. The magnitude of the problem contrasts with the shortage, weak quality, and comparability of data available in most European countries. A stepwise surveillance procedure based on standardized data collection, appropriate record linkage, and validation methods was set up by the EUROCISS project (EUROpean Cardiovascular Indicators Surveillance Set), to build up comparable and reliable indicators for the surveillance of stroke at the population level.This manual of operations is intended for health professionals and policy makers. It provides a standardized and simple model for the implementation of a population-based register, which can provide estimates of attack rate and case fatality. The manual recommends starting from a minimum data set. Before implementing a population-based register, it is important to identify the target population under surveillance, which should preferably cover a well defined geographical and administrative area or region representative of the whole country, where population data and vital statistics (mortality and hospital discharge records at least) are routinely collected and easily available each year. All cases among residents should be recorded

  18. Design and implementation of population-based specialty care programs.

    PubMed

    Botts, Sheila R; Gee, Michael T; Chang, Christopher C; Young, Iris; Saito, Logan; Lyman, Alfred E

    2017-09-15

    The development, implementation, and scaling of 3 population-based specialty care programs in a large integrated healthcare system are reviewed, and the role of clinical pharmacy services in ensuring safe, effective, and affordable care is highlighted. The Kaiser Permanente (KP) integrated healthcare delivery model allows for rapid development and expansion of innovative population management programs involving pharmacy services. Clinical pharmacists have assumed integral roles in improving the safety and effectiveness of high-complexity, high-cost care for specialty populations. These roles require an appropriate practice scope and are supported by an advanced electronic health record with disease registries and electronic surveillance tools for care-gap identification. The 3 specialty population programs described were implemented to address variation or unrecognized gaps in care for at-risk specialty populations. The Home Phototherapy Program has leveraged internal partnerships with clinical pharmacists to improve access to cost-effective nonpharmacologic interventions for psoriasis and other skin disorders. The Multiple Sclerosis Care Program has incorporated clinical pharmacists into neurology care in order to apply clinical guidelines in a systematic manner. The KP SureNet program has used clinical pharmacists and data analytics to identify opportunities to prevent drug-related adverse outcomes and ensure timely follow-up. Specialty care programs improve quality, cost outcomes, and the patient experience by appropriating resources to provide systematic and targeted care to high-risk patients. KP leverages an integration of people, processes, and technology to develop and scale population-based specialty care. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

  19. Lifetime Risk of Symptomatic Hand Osteoarthritis: The Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project.

    PubMed

    Qin, Jin; Barbour, Kamil E; Murphy, Louise B; Nelson, Amanda E; Schwartz, Todd A; Helmick, Charles G; Allen, Kelli D; Renner, Jordan B; Baker, Nancy A; Jordan, Joanne M

    2017-06-01

    Symptomatic hand osteoarthritis (OA) is a common condition that affects hand strength and function, and causes disability in activities of daily living. Prior studies have estimated that the lifetime risk of symptomatic knee OA is 45% and that of hip OA is 25%. The objective of the present study was to estimate the overall lifetime risk of symptomatic hand OA, and the stratified lifetime risk according to potential risk factors. Data were obtained from 2,218 adult subjects (ages ≥45 years) in the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project, a population-based prospective cohort study among residents of Johnston County, North Carolina. Data for the present study were collected from 2 of the follow-up cycles (1999-2004 and 2005-2010). Symptomatic hand OA was defined as the presence of both self-reported symptoms and radiographic OA in the same hand. Lifetime risk, defined as the proportion of the population who will develop symptomatic hand OA in at least 1 hand by age 85 years, was estimated from models using generalized estimating equations. Overall, the lifetime risk of symptomatic hand OA was 39.8% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 34.4-45.3%). In this population, nearly 1 in 2 women (47.2%, 95% CI 40.6-53.9%) had an estimated lifetime risk of developing symptomatic hand OA by age 85 years, compared with 1 in 4 men (24.6%, 95% CI 19.5-30.5%). Race-specific symptomatic hand OA risk estimates were 41.4% (95% CI 35.5-47.6%) among whites and 29.2% (95% CI 20.5-39.7%) among African Americans. The lifetime risk of symptomatic hand OA among individuals with obesity (47.1%, 95% CI 37.8-56.7%) was 11 percentage points higher than that in individuals without obesity (36.1%, 95% CI 29.7-42.9%). These findings demonstrate the substantial burden of symptomatic hand OA overall and in sociodemographic and clinical subgroups. Increased use of public health and clinical interventions is needed to address its impact. © 2017, American College of Rheumatology.

  20. Evolution of one-particle and double-occupied Green functions for the Hubbard model, with interaction, at half-filling with lifetime effects within the moment approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schafroth, S.; Rodríguez-Núñez, J. J.

    1999-08-01

    We evaluate the one-particle and double-occupied Green functions for the Hubbard model at half-filling using the moment approach of Nolting [Z. Phys. 255, 25 (1972); Grund Kurs: Theoretische Physik. 7 Viel-Teilchen-Theorie (Verlag Zimmermann-Neufang, Ulmen, 1992)]. Our starting point is a self-energy, Σ(k-->,ω), which has a single pole, Ω(k-->), with spectral weight, α(k-->), and quasiparticle lifetime, γ(k-->) [J. J. Rodríguez-Núñez and S. Schafroth, J. Phys. Condens. Matter 10, L391 (1998); J. J. Rodríguez-Núñez, S. Schafroth, and H. Beck, Physica B (to be published); (unpublished)]. In our approach, Σ(k-->,ω) becomes the central feature of the many-body problem and due to three unknown k--> parameters we have to satisfy only the first three sum rules instead of four as in the canonical formulation of Nolting [Z. Phys. 255, 25 (1972); Grund Kurs: Theoretische Physik. 7 Viel-Teilchen-Theorie (Verlag Zimmermann-Neufang, Ulmen, 1992)]. This self-energy choice forces our system to be a non-Fermi liquid for any value of the interaction, since it does not vanish at zero frequency. The one-particle Green function, G(k-->,ω), shows the fingerprint of a strongly correlated system, i.e., a double peak structure in the one-particle spectral density, A(k-->,ω), vs ω for intermediate values of the interaction. Close to the Mott insulator-transition, A(k-->,ω) becomes a wide single peak, signaling the absence of quasiparticles. Similar behavior is observed for the real and imaginary parts of the self-energy, Σ(k-->,ω). The double-occupied Green function, G2(q-->,ω), has been obtained from G(k-->,ω) by means of the equation of motion. The relation between G2(q-->,ω) and the self-energy, Σ(k-->,ω), is formally established and numerical results for the spectral function of G2(k-->,ω), χ(2)(k-->,ω)≡-(1/π)δ-->0+Im[G2(k-->,ω)], are given. Our approach represents the simplest way to include (1) lifetime effects in the moment approach of Nolting, as

  1. Lifetime risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma in patients with Barrett's esophagus

    PubMed Central

    Gatenby, Piers; Caygill, Christine; Wall, Christine; Bhatacharjee, Santanu; Ramus, James; Watson, Anthony; Winslet, Marc

    2014-01-01

    AIM: To investigate the lifetime risk of development of esophageal adenocarcinoma and/or high-grade dysplasia in patients diagnosed with Barrett’s esophagus. METHODS: Data were extracted from the United Kingdom National Barrett’s Oesophagus Registry on date of diagnosis, patient age and gender of 7877 patients from who had been registered from 35 United Kingdom centers. Life expectancy was evaluated from United Kingdom National Statistics data based upon gender and age at year at diagnosis. These data were then used with published estimates of annual adenocarcinoma and high-grade dysplasia incidences from meta-analyses and large population-based studies to estimate overall lifetime risk of development of these study endpoints. RESULTS: The mean age at diagnosis of Barrett’s esophagus was 61.6 years in males and 67.3 years in females. The mean life expectancy at diagnosis was 23.1 years in males, 20.7 years in females and 22.2 years overall. Using data from published meta-analyses, the lifetime risk of development of adenocarcinoma was between 1 in 8 and 1 in 14 and the lifetime risk of high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma was 1 in 5 to 1 in 6. Using data from 3 large recent population-based cohort studies the lifetime risk of adenocarcinoma was between 1 in 10 and 1 in 37 and of the combined end-point of high-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma was between 1 in 8 and 1 in 20. Age at Barrett’s esophagus diagnosis is reducing and life expectancy is increasing, which will partially counter-balance lower annual cancer incidence. CONCLUSION: There is a significant lifetime risk of development of high-grade dysplasia and adenocarcinoma in Barrett’s esophagus. PMID:25071359

  2. B Lifetimes and Mixing

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, Harold G.; /Indiana U.

    2009-05-01

    The Tevatron experiments, CDF and D0, have produced a wealth of new B-physics results since the start of Run II in 2001. We've observed new B-hadrons, seen new effects, and increased many-fold the precision with which we know the properties of b-quark systems. In these proceedings, we will discuss two of the most fruitful areas in the Tevatron B-physics program: lifetimes and mixing. We'll examine the experimental issues driving these analyses, present a summary of the latest results, and discuss prospects for the future.

  3. Dopant Cylinder Lifetime Monitor

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bishop, Steve; Wodjenski, Michael; Kaim, Robert; Lurcott, Steve; McManus, Jim; Smith, Gordon

    2006-11-01

    The cost of consumable materials is a significant component in the cost of implanter operation. With the higher cost of sub-atmospheric gas alternatives it is increasingly important to accurately monitor its usage. The ATMI® SDS® GasGauge™ monitoring system accurately monitors gas level in four cylinders simultaneously, throughout their lifetime, in order to optimize usage of gas and related implanter productivity. This paper displays how the GasGauge monitoring system accurately monitors the cylinder contents in SDS®, VAC® and high pressure gas cylinders. Internal and customer test data is also presented to verify these claims.

  4. Dependence of the charge exchange lifetimes on mirror latitude

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, P. H.; Bewtra, N. K.

    1976-01-01

    The dependence of the charge exchange lifetimes on the mirror latitude for ions mirroring off the geomagnetic equator was re-computed using the improved hydrogen distribution models. The Chamberlain model was used to define the spatial distribution of the neutral hydrogen environment through which the ring current ions traverse. The resultant dependence of the charge exchange lifetime on mirror latitude is best fitted by the approximation that contains the charge exchange lifetime for equatorial particles.

  5. The simcyp population based simulator: architecture, implementation, and quality assurance.

    PubMed

    Jamei, Masoud; Marciniak, Steve; Edwards, Duncan; Wragg, Kris; Feng, Kairui; Barnett, Adrian; Rostami-Hodjegan, Amin

    2013-01-01

    Developing a user-friendly platform that can handle a vast number of complex physiologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) models both for conventional small molecules and larger biologic drugs is a substantial challenge. Over the last decade the Simcyp Population Based Simulator has gained popularity in major pharmaceutical companies (70% of top 40 - in term of R&D spending). Under the Simcyp Consortium guidance, it has evolved from a simple drug-drug interaction tool to a sophisticated and comprehensive Model Based Drug Development (MBDD) platform that covers a broad range of applications spanning from early drug discovery to late drug development. This article provides an update on the latest architectural and implementation developments within the Simulator. Interconnection between peripheral modules, the dynamic model building process and compound and population data handling are all described. The Simcyp Data Management (SDM) system, which contains the system and drug databases, can help with implementing quality standards by seamless integration and tracking of any changes. This also helps with internal approval procedures, validation and auto-testing of the new implemented models and algorithms, an area of high interest to regulatory bodies.

  6. A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory

    2013-01-01

    Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

  7. A Satellite Mortality Study to Support Space Systems Lifetime Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory

    2013-01-01

    Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

  8. A satellite mortality study to support space systems lifetime prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fox, George; Salazar, Ronald; Habib-Agahi, Hamid; Dubos, Gregory F.

    Estimating the operational lifetime of satellites and spacecraft is a complex process. Operational lifetime can differ from mission design lifetime for a variety of reasons. Unexpected mortality can occur due to human errors in design and fabrication, to human errors in launch and operations, to random anomalies of hardware and software or even satellite function degradation or technology change, leading to unrealized economic or mission return. This study focuses on data collection of public information using, for the first time, a large, publically available dataset, and preliminary analysis of satellite lifetimes, both operational lifetime and design lifetime. The objective of this study is the illustration of the relationship of design life to actual lifetime for some representative classes of satellites and spacecraft. First, a Weibull and Exponential lifetime analysis comparison is performed on the ratio of mission operating lifetime to design life, accounting for terminated and ongoing missions. Next a Kaplan-Meier survivor function, standard practice for clinical trials analysis, is estimated from operating lifetime. Bootstrap resampling is used to provide uncertainty estimates of selected survival probabilities. This study highlights the need for more detailed databases and engineering reliability models of satellite lifetime that include satellite systems and subsystems, operations procedures and environmental characteristics to support the design of complex, multi-generation, long-lived space systems in Earth orbit.

  9. Prevalence of exposure to suicide: A meta-analysis of population-based studies.

    PubMed

    Andriessen, Karl; Rahman, Bayzidur; Draper, Brian; Dudley, Michael; Mitchell, Philip B

    2017-05-01

    Those exposed to suicide are at increased risk of adverse outcomes including mental illness, impaired social functioning, and fatal and non-fatal suicidal behavior. However, it is unclear how many people are exposed to suicide in the general community. This first meta-analysis of population-based studies aimed to provide pooled estimates of past-year and lifetime prevalence of exposure to suicide among family, friends/peers, and all relationships. In addition, the study examined prevalence of exposure to suicide by age group: adolescents and adults. Systematic searches of the literature in Embase, Medline and PsycINFO identified eighteen studies that were included in the analysis. Pooled past-year prevalence was 4.31% (CI: 2.50 to 6.58) and life-time prevalence 21.83% (CI: 16.32 to 27.90). Both past-year and lifetime prevalences of exposure to suicide among friends and peers were significantly higher than the prevalence of exposure within families; there were no differences in the prevalence of exposure to suicide between adolescents and adults. Heterogeneity was highly significant. Future research should be conducted with large national representative samples and use standardised assessment instruments. Given the increased risks of adverse outcomes among those exposed to suicide, the high rate of exposure to suicide reported here has important ramifications for public health and mental health service delivery.

  10. Adult Prevalence of Epilepsy in Spain: EPIBERIA, a Population-Based Study

    PubMed Central

    Serrano-Castro, Pedro J.; Mauri-Llerda, Jose Angel; Hernández-Ramos, Francisco José; Sánchez-Alvarez, Juan Carlos; Parejo-Carbonell, Beatriz; Quiroga-Subirana, Pablo; Vázquez-Gutierrez, Fernando; Santos-Lasaosa, Sonia; Mendez-Lucena, Carolina; Redondo-Verge, Luis; Tejero-Juste, Carlos; Morandeira-Rivas, Clara; Sancho-Rieger, Jerónimo; Matías-Guiu, Jorge

    2015-01-01

    Background. This study assesses the lifetime and active prevalence of epilepsy in Spain in people older than 18 years. Methods. EPIBERIA is a population-based epidemiological study of epilepsy prevalence using data from three representative Spanish regions (health districts in Zaragoza, Almería, and Seville) between 2012 and 2013. The study consisted of two phases: screening and confirmation. Participants completed a previously validated questionnaire (EPIBERIA questionnaire) over the telephone. Results. A total of 1741 valid questionnaires were obtained, including 261 (14.99%) raising a suspicion of epilepsy. Of these suspected cases, 216 (82.75%) agreed to participate in phase 2. Of the phase 2 participants, 22 met the International League Against Epilepsy's diagnostic criteria for epilepsy. The estimated lifetime prevalence, adjusted by age and sex per 1,000 people, was 14.87 (95% CI: 9.8–21.9). Active prevalence was 5.79 (95% CI: 2.8–10.6). No significant age, sex, or regional differences in prevalence were detected. Conclusions. EPIBERIA provides the most accurate estimate of epilepsy prevalence in the Mediterranean region based on its original methodology and its adherence to ILAE recommendations. We highlight that the lifetime prevalence and inactive epilepsy prevalence figures observed here were compared to other epidemiological studies. PMID:26783554

  11. History of depression and risk of hyperemesis gravidarum: a population-based cohort study.

    PubMed

    Kjeldgaard, Helena Kames; Eberhard-Gran, Malin; Benth, Jūratė Šaltytė; Nordeng, Hedvig; Vikanes, Åse Vigdis

    2017-01-07

    Hyperemesis gravidarum (HG) is a pregnancy condition characterised by debilitating nausea and vomiting. HG has been associated with depression during pregnancy but the direction of the association remains unclear. The aim of this study was to assess whether previous depression is associated with HG. This is a population-based pregnancy cohort study using data from The Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study. The study reviewed 731 pregnancies with HG and 81,055 pregnancies without. Logistic regression analyses were performed to examine the association between a lifetime history of depression and hyperemesis gravidarum. Odds ratios were adjusted for symptoms of current depression, maternal age, parity, body mass index, smoking, sex of the child, education and pelvic girdle pain. A lifetime history of depression was associated with higher odds for hyperemesis gravidarum (aOR = 1.49, 95% CI (1.23; 1.79)). Two thirds of women with hyperemesis gravidarum had neither a history of depression nor symptoms of current depression, and 1.2% of women with a history of depression developed HG. A lifetime history of depression increased the risk of HG. However, given the fact that only 1.2% of women with a history of depression developed HG and that the majority of women with HG had no symptoms of depression, depression does not seem to be a main driver in the aetiology of HG.

  12. Age, period, and cohort effects in adult lifetime asthma prevalence in California: an application of hierarchical age-period-cohort analysis.

    PubMed

    Ryan-Ibarra, Suzanne; Milet, Meredith; Lutzker, Liza; Rodriguez, Danielle; Induni, Marta; Kreutzer, Rick

    2016-02-01

    Using 27 years of survey data, the contributions of age, period, and cohort effects on the increase in adult lifetime asthma prevalence in California were examined. Lifetime asthma diagnosis for adults was assessed in 1984-1992 and 1995-2011 through the California Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, an annual, cross-sectional, population-based survey (n = 144,100). Using date of survey and date of birth, we classified 18,305 adult respondents with lifetime asthma into 7 age groups, 6 periods, and 17 cohorts. Using hierarchical, cross-classified random effects models, birth cohort, period, and age patterns in adult lifetime asthma prevalence were analyzed. After adjusting for sex, ethnicity, education, and smoking, age effects peak in young adulthood, flatten from 40 to 60 years old, and then decrease in older adulthood. A significant positive trend in asthma prevalence was observed in the two earliest survey periods (1984-1993; P value < .0001). Survey period trends appear to flatten beginning in 2004. Although the overall birth cohort effect was statistically significant, the magnitude of the effect for each birth cohort category was small (P value = .0005). We observed that strong age and period effects have been driving the increase in lifetime asthma prevalence in California over the past 3 decades. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  13. Lifetime antecedents of cognitive reserve.

    PubMed

    Richards, Marcus; Sacker, Amanda

    2003-08-01

    We used path analysis on data from the British 1946 birth cohort to model lifetime antecedents of cognitive reserve, represented by the NART at 53 years, and compared this model for verbal memory and psychomotor function at this age, cognitive outcomes that are sensitive to age-associated decline. We showed independent paths from childhood cognition, educational attainment and adult occupation to cognitive reserve, with that from childhood cognition the strongest, and that from adult occupation the weakest. A similar pattern was found for the verbal memory and psychomotor outcomes, although the pathways were weaker than those to the NART. The pattern was also mirrored by the paths from paternal occupation to childhood cognition, educational attainment and adult occupation, with that to childhood cognition the strongest, and that to adult occupation the weakest. The direct influence of paternal occupation on cognitive reserve was negligible, and almost entirely mediated by childhood cognitive ability and educational attainment.

  14. Cost-effectiveness of population based BRCA testing with varying Ashkenazi Jewish ancestry.

    PubMed

    Manchanda, Ranjit; Patel, Shreeya; Antoniou, Antonis C; Levy-Lahad, Ephrat; Turnbull, Clare; Evans, D Gareth; Hopper, John L; Macinnis, Robert J; Menon, Usha; Jacobs, Ian; Legood, Rosa

    2017-07-06

    Population-based BRCA1/BRCA2 testing has been found to be cost-effective compared with family history-based testing in Ashkenazi-Jewish women were >30 years old with 4 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents. However, individuals may have 1, 2, or 3 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents, and cost-effectiveness data are lacking at these lower BRCA prevalence estimates. We present an updated cost-effectiveness analysis of population BRCA1/BRCA2 testing for women with 1, 2, and 3 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents. Decision analysis model. Lifetime costs and effects of population and family history-based testing were compared with the use of a decision analysis model. 56% BRCA carriers are missed by family history criteria alone. Analyses were conducted for United Kingdom and United States populations. Model parameters were obtained from the Genetic Cancer Prediction through Population Screening trial and published literature. Model parameters and BRCA population prevalence for individuals with 3, 2, or 1 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent were adjusted for the relative frequency of BRCA mutations in the Ashkenazi-Jewish and general populations. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for all Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent scenarios. Costs, along with outcomes, were discounted at 3.5%. The time horizon of the analysis is "life-time," and perspective is "payer." Probabilistic sensitivity analysis evaluated model uncertainty. Population testing for BRCA mutations is cost-saving in Ashkenazi-Jewish women with 2, 3, or 4 grandparents (22-33 days life-gained) in the United Kingdom and 1, 2, 3, or 4 grandparents (12-26 days life-gained) in the United States populations, respectively. It is also extremely cost-effective in women in the United Kingdom with just 1 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £863 per quality-adjusted life-years and 15 days life gained. Results show that population-testing remains cost-effective at the £20,000-30000 per quality

  15. Lifetime estimation of high power lasers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Guoguang; Huang, Yun; En, Yunfei

    2010-11-01

    We have set up a computer automated controlled diode array reliability experiment which can take up 10 to 20 high power cm-bars. Subsequent 25°C and 50°C lifetime tests were completed. According to the method of least squares, the degradation model of cm-bars is obtained. Using the model and weibull++7 software, the extrapolated lifetime of cmbars at 25°C is 7950 hours (2.86×109 shots). We also obtain an acceleration factor 1.88 of resulting in a thermal activation energy of Ea=0.21eV using Arrhenius function. Finally, failure analysis was carried on the gradually degraded devices, the results show that it is the facet degradation which made high power cm-bars degrade during the long time lifetime test.

  16. Lifetime secondhand smoke exposure and childhood and adolescent asthma: findings from the PIAMA cohort.

    PubMed

    Milanzi, Edith B; Brunekreef, Bert; Koppelman, Gerard H; Wijga, Alet H; van Rossem, Lenie; Vonk, Judith M; Smit, Henriëtte A; Gehring, Ulrike

    2017-02-23

    Secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure is a modifiable risk factor associated with childhood asthma. Associations with adolescent asthma and the relevance of the timing and patterns of exposure are unclear. Knowledge of critical windows of exposure is important for targeted interventions. We used data until age 17 from 1454 children of the Dutch population-based PIAMA birth cohort. Residential SHS exposure was assessed through parental questionnaires completed at ages 3 months, 1-8 (yearly), 11, 14, and 17 years. Lifetime exposure was determined as; a) time window-specific exposure (prenatal, infancy, preschool, primary school, and secondary school); b) lifetime cumulative exposure; c) longitudinal exposure patterns using latent class growth modeling (LCGM). Generalized estimation equations and logistic regression were used to analyze associations between exposure and asthma at ages 4 to 17 years, adjusting for potential confounders. With all three methods, we consistently found no association between SHS exposure and asthma at ages 4 to 17 years e.g. adjusted overall odds ratio (95% confidence interval) 0.67 (0.41-1.12), 1.00 (0.66-1.51) and 0.67 (0.41-1.11) for prenatal maternal active smoking, infancy, and preschool school time window exposures, respectively. We assessed lifetime SHS exposure using different methods. Different timing and patterns of SHS exposure were not associated with an increased risk of asthma in childhood and adolescence in our study. More longitudinal studies could investigate effects of lifetime SHS exposure on asthma in adolescence and later life.

  17. The ethical dilemma of population-based medical decision making.

    PubMed

    Kirsner, R S; Federman, D G

    1998-11-01

    Over the past several years, there has been a growing interest in population-based medicine. Some elements in healthcare have used population-based medicine as a technique to decrease healthcare expenditures. However, in their daily practice of medicine, physicians must grapple with the question of whether they incorporate population-based medicine when making decisions for an individual patient. They therefore may encounter an ethical dilemma. Physicians must remember that the physician-patient relationship is of paramount importance and that even well-conducted research may not be applicable to an individual patient.

  18. Tropospheric hydroxyl concentrations and the lifetimes of hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Prather, Michael J.

    1990-01-01

    Three dimensional fields of modeled tropospheric OH concentrations are used to calculate lifetimes against destruction by OH for many hydrogenated halocarbons, including the CFC alternatives. The OH fields were taken from a 3-D chemical transport model (Spivakovsky et al. 1989) that accurately simulates the global measurements of methyl chloroform (derived lifetime of 5.5 years). The lifetimes of various hydro-halocarbons are shown to be insensitive to possible spatial variations and seasonal cycles. It is possible to scale the HCFC lifetimes to that of methyl chloroform or methane by using the ratio of the rate coefficients for reaction with OH at an appropriate temperature, about 277 K.

  19. Modified Nuclear Lifetime in Hot Dense Plasmas

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gosselin, Gilbert; Meot, V.; Morel, P.

    In plasmas, the electronic environment in the immediate vicinity of the nucleus is modified, and thus, the plasma conditions influence key processes driving the lifetime of a nuclear level. A correct lifetime prediction requires every de-excitation process to be evaluated jointly with its corresponding excitation process. For heavy nuclei, the nuclear lifetime of discrete levels is often strongly dependent on internal conversion which involves bound electrons. In plasma, many of these electrons are no longer in a bound state and the internal conversion rate can be significantly reduced. Its coupling with its inverse process, Nuclear Excitation by Electron Capture (NEEC), can lead to greatly increased nuclear lifetimes. In some cases, an atomic transition can be coupled with a nuclear transition in a process called Nuclear Excitation by Electron Transition (NEET) if their energies are closely matched. This can accelerate the de-excitation of the excited nuclear level, and reduce its lifetime. We developed a model able to deal with these processes in plasma under thermodynamic equilibrium. It evaluates internal conversion, NEEC and NEET rates in plasma. Depending on the particular situation, we use either an average atom description or a Multi Configuration Dirac Fock (MCDF) approach to describe the electronic environment of the atom. Large variations of several excited nuclear level lifetimes have been predicted. A complete description of the nuclear lifetime must also include some other nuclear levels through which indirect nuclear excitation or de-excitation may occur. This particular situation may provide a fast method to populate or depopulate nuclear isomers.

  20. Development of a new risk model for predicting cardiovascular events among hemodialysis patients: Population-based hemodialysis patients from the Japan Dialysis Outcome and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS).

    PubMed

    Matsubara, Yukiko; Kimachi, Miho; Fukuma, Shingo; Onishi, Yoshihiro; Fukuhara, Shunichi

    2017-01-01

    Cardiovascular (CV) events are the primary cause of death and becoming bedridden among hemodialysis (HD) patients. The Framingham risk score (FRS) is useful for predicting incidence of CV events in the general population, but is considerd to be unsuitable for the prediction of the incidence of CV events in HD patients, given their characteristics due to atypical relationships between conventional risk factors and outcomes. We therefore aimed to develop a new prognostic prediction model for prevention and early detection of CV events among hemodialysis patients. We enrolled 3,601 maintenance HD patients based on their data from the Japan Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS), phases 3 and 4. We longitudinaly assessed the association between several potential candidate predictors and composite CV events in the year after study initiation. Potential candidate predictors included the component factors of FRS and other HD-specific risk factors. We used multivariable logistic regression with backward stepwise selection to develop our new prediction model and generated a calibration plot. Additinially, we performed bootstrapping to assess the internal validity. We observed 328 composite CV events during 1-year follow-up. The final prediction model contained six variables: age, diabetes status, history of CV events, dialysis time per session, and serum phosphorus and albumin levels. The new model showed significantly better discrimination than the FRS, in both men (c-statistics: 0.76 for new model, 0.64 for FRS) and women (c-statistics: 0.77 for new model, 0.60 for FRS). Additionally, we confirmed the consistency between the observed results and predicted results using the calibration plot. Further, we found similar discrimination and calibration to the derivation model in the bootstrapping cohort. We developed a new risk model consisting of only six predictors. Our new model predicted CV events more accurately than the FRS.

  1. Development of a new risk model for predicting cardiovascular events among hemodialysis patients: Population-based hemodialysis patients from the Japan Dialysis Outcome and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS)

    PubMed Central

    Onishi, Yoshihiro; Fukuhara, Shunichi

    2017-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular (CV) events are the primary cause of death and becoming bedridden among hemodialysis (HD) patients. The Framingham risk score (FRS) is useful for predicting incidence of CV events in the general population, but is considerd to be unsuitable for the prediction of the incidence of CV events in HD patients, given their characteristics due to atypical relationships between conventional risk factors and outcomes. We therefore aimed to develop a new prognostic prediction model for prevention and early detection of CV events among hemodialysis patients. Methods We enrolled 3,601 maintenance HD patients based on their data from the Japan Dialysis Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (J-DOPPS), phases 3 and 4. We longitudinaly assessed the association between several potential candidate predictors and composite CV events in the year after study initiation. Potential candidate predictors included the component factors of FRS and other HD-specific risk factors. We used multivariable logistic regression with backward stepwise selection to develop our new prediction model and generated a calibration plot. Additinially, we performed bootstrapping to assess the internal validity. Results We observed 328 composite CV events during 1-year follow-up. The final prediction model contained six variables: age, diabetes status, history of CV events, dialysis time per session, and serum phosphorus and albumin levels. The new model showed significantly better discrimination than the FRS, in both men (c-statistics: 0.76 for new model, 0.64 for FRS) and women (c-statistics: 0.77 for new model, 0.60 for FRS). Additionally, we confirmed the consistency between the observed results and predicted results using the calibration plot. Further, we found similar discrimination and calibration to the derivation model in the bootstrapping cohort. Conclusions We developed a new risk model consisting of only six predictors. Our new model predicted CV events more accurately than

  2. A case-cohort study examining lifetime exposure to inorganic arsenic in drinking water and diabetes mellitus.

    PubMed

    James, Katherine A; Marshall, Julie A; Hokanson, John E; Meliker, Jaymie R; Zerbe, Gary O; Byers, Tim E

    2013-05-01

    Consumption of drinking water with high levels of inorganic arsenic (over 500 μg/L) has been associated with type II diabetes mellitus (DM), but previous studies have been inconclusive about risks at lower levels (<100 μg/L). We present a case-cohort study based on individual estimates of lifetime arsenic exposure to examine the relationship between chronic low-level arsenic exposure and risk of DM. This case-cohort study included 141 cases of DM diagnosed between 1984 and 1998 as part of the prospective San Luis Valley Diabetes Study. A comparison sub-cohort of 488 participants was randomly sampled from 936 eligible participants who were disease free at baseline. Individual lifetime arsenic exposure estimates were determined using a methodology that incorporates the use of a structured interview to determine lifetime residence and employment history, geospatial modeling of arsenic concentrations in drinking water, and urine arsenic concentrations. A Cox proportional hazards model with known DM risk factors as time-dependent covariates was used to assess the association between lifetime exposure to inorganic arsenic in drinking water and incident DM. Our findings show a significant association between inorganic arsenic exposure and DM risk (hazard ratio [HR]=1.27, 95%=1.01, 1.59 per 15 μg/L) while adjusting for ethnicity and time varying covariates age, body mass index and physical activity level. Exposure to low-level inorganic arsenic in drinking water is associated with increased risk for type II DM in this population based on a comprehensive lifetime exposure assessment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Projections of population-based twinning rates through the year 2100.

    PubMed

    Oleszczuk, J J; Keith, D M; Keith, L G; Rayburn, W F

    1999-11-01

    To present the first compilation of population-based twinning rates published after the year 1990 and to project population-based twinning rates through the year 2100. We searched the Internet-based MEDLINE database for articles published after 1990 in which population-based twinning rates were described. We used population-based data from national statistical authorities from Australia, Austria, Canada, Finland, Hong Kong, Israel, Japan, Norway, Singapore and Sweden, published by Y. Imaizumi in a recent article. U.S. figures were based on data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Annual growth rates of twinning were calculated and graphed, making the assumption that these rates would remain constant throughout the next century. Our report presents the most recent population-based twinning rates. When projected through the year 2015, twinning rates reach figures that could best be described as derived from a Jules Verne novel: Sweden, in this model, would have four times more twin than singleton births. We strongly suggest that physicians reexamine their patterns of prescribing ovulation-inducing agents, which carry a greatly increased risk of multiple pregnancy.

  4. A Population-based Habitable Zone Perspective

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zsom, Andras

    2015-11-01

    What can we tell about exoplanet habitability if currently only the stellar properties, planet radius, and the incoming stellar flux are known? A planet is in the habitable zone (HZ) if it harbors liquid water on its surface. The HZ is traditionally conceived as a sharp region around stars because it is calculated for one planet with specific properties. Such an approach is limiting because the planet’s atmospheric and geophysical properties, which influence the presence of liquid water on the surface, are currently unknown but expected to be diverse. A statistical HZ description is outlined that does not favor one planet type. Instead, the stellar and planet properties are treated as random variables, and a continuous range of planet scenarios is considered. Various probability density functions are assigned to each random variable, and a combination of Monte Carlo sampling and climate modeling is used to generate synthetic exoplanet populations with known surface climates. Then, the properties of the subpopulation bearing liquid water is analyzed. Given our current observational knowledge, the HZ takes the form of a weakly constrained but smooth probability function. The HZ has an inner edge, but a clear outer edge is not seen. Currently only optimistic upper limits can be derived for the potentially observable HZ occurrence rate. Finally, we illustrate through an example how future data on exoplanet atmospheres will help to narrow down the probability that an exoplanet harbors liquid water, and we identify the greatest observational challenge in the way of finding a habitable exoplanet.

  5. Protective effect of Aronia melanocarpa polyphenols against cadmium-induced disorders in bone metabolism: a study in a rat model of lifetime human exposure to this heavy metal.

    PubMed

    Brzóska, Malgorzata M; Rogalska, Joanna; Galazyn-Sidorczuk, Malgorzata; Jurczuk, Maria; Roszczenko, Alicja; Tomczyk, Michal

    2015-03-05

    It was investigated, in a female rat model of low and moderate lifetime human exposure to cadmium (Cd), whether polyphenols from Aronia melanocarpa berries (chokeberry; AMP) may offer protection from this heavy metal-induced disorders in bone metabolism. For this purpose, numerous indices of bone formation (osteocalcin, alkaline phosphatase, osteoprotegerin) and resorption (carboxy-terminal cross-linking telopeptides of type I collagen, soluble receptor activator of nuclear factor-κB ligand) in the serum and/or distal femur epiphysis (trabecular bone region), as well as bone mineral status (volumetric bone mineral density of the femur and content of mineral components, including calcium, in the bone tissue at the distal femur epiphysis) were evaluated in female Wistar rats that received a 0.1% aqueous extract of AMP, as the only drinking fluid (prepared from lyophilized extract by Adamed Consumer Healthcare), and/or Cd in diet (1 and 5mg/kg) for 3, 10, 17, and 24 months. Examination of the phytochemical profile of the aronia extract revealed high content of polyphenols (612.40 ± 3.33 mg/g), including anthocyanins, proanthocyanidins, phenolic acids, and flavonoids. Among detected compounds anthocyanins were identified as dominating. The exposure to Cd, dose- and duration-dependently, enhanced resorption and inhibited formation of the bone tissue resulting in its decreased mineralization. The administration of AMP under the exposure to 1 and 5 mgCd/kg diet provided important protection from this heavy metal-induced disturbances in the bone turnover and changes in the bone mineral status, and the beneficial impact of polyphenols resulted from their independent action and interaction with Cd. These findings suggest that consumption of Aronia melanocarpa polyphenols may play a role in prevention against female skeleton damage due to chronic exposure to Cd and that chokeberry represents the good natural plant candidate for further investigations of its prophylactic use

  6. Lifetime measurement of high spin states in (75) Kr

    SciTech Connect

    Sheikh, Javid; Trivedi, T.; Maurya, K.; Mehrotra, I.; Palit, R.; Naik, Z.; Jain, H. C.; Negi, D.; Mahanto, G.; Kumar, R.; Singh, R.P.; Muralithar, S.; Pancholi, S.C.; Bhowmik, R.K.; Yang, Y-C; Sun, Y.; Dahl, A.; Raju, M.K.; Appannababu, S.; Kumar, S.; Choudhury, D.; Jain, A. K.

    2010-01-01

    The lifetimes of high spin states of {sup 75}Kr have been determined via {sup 50}Cr ({sup 28}Si, 2pn) {sup 75}Kr reaction in positive parity band using the Doppler-shift attenuation method. The transition quadrupole moments Q deduced from lifetime measurements have been compared with {sup 75}Br. Experimental results obtained from lifetime measurement are interpreted in the framework of projected shell model.

  7. Cubosomes for in vivo fluorescence lifetime imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Biffi, Stefania; Andolfi, Laura; Caltagirone, Claudia; Garrovo, Chiara; Falchi, Angela M.; Lippolis, Vito; Lorenzon, Andrea; Macor, Paolo; Meli, Valeria; Monduzzi, Maura; Obiols-Rabasa, Marc; Petrizza, Luca; Prodi, Luca; Rosa, Antonella; Schmidt, Judith; Talmon, Yeshayahu; Murgia, Sergio

    2017-02-01

    Herein we provided the first proof of principle for in vivo fluorescence optical imaging application using monoolein-based cubosomes in a healthy mouse animal model. This formulation, administered at a non-cytotoxic concentration, was capable of providing both exogenous contrast for NIR fluorescence imaging with very high efficiency and chemospecific information upon lifetime analysis. Time-resolved measurements of fluorescence after the intravenous injection of cubosomes revealed that the dye rapidly accumulated mainly in the liver, while lifetimes profiles obtained in vivo allowed for discriminating between free dye or dye embedded within the cubosome nanostructure after injection.

  8. Solvent dependence of cyanoindole fluorescence lifetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hilaire, Mary Rose; Mukherjee, Debopreeti; Troxler, Thomas; Gai, Feng

    2017-10-01

    Several cyanotryptophans have been shown to be useful biological fluorophores. However, how their fluorescence lifetimes vary with solvent has not been examined. In this regard, herein we measure the fluorescence decay kinetics as well as the absorption and emission spectra of six cyanoindoles in different solvents. In particular, we find, among other results, that only 4-cyanoindole affords a long fluorescence lifetime and hence high quantum yield in H2O. Therefore, our measurements provide not only a guide for choosing which cyanotryptophan to use in practice but also data for computational modeling of the substitution effect on the electronic transitions of indole.

  9. Cubosomes for in vivo fluorescence lifetime imaging.

    PubMed

    Biffi, Stefania; Andolfi, Laura; Caltagirone, Claudia; Garrovo, Chiara; Falchi, Angela M; Lippolis, Vito; Lorenzon, Andrea; Macor, Paolo; Meli, Valeria; Monduzzi, Maura; Obiols-Rabasa, Marc; Petrizza, Luca; Prodi, Luca; Rosa, Antonella; Schmidt, Judith; Talmon, Yeshayahu; Murgia, Sergio

    2017-02-03

    Herein we provided the first proof of principle for in vivo fluorescence optical imaging application using monoolein-based cubosomes in a healthy mouse animal model. This formulation, administered at a non-cytotoxic concentration, was capable of providing both exogenous contrast for NIR fluorescence imaging with very high efficiency and chemospecific information upon lifetime analysis. Time-resolved measurements of fluorescence after the intravenous injection of cubosomes revealed that the dye rapidly accumulated mainly in the liver, while lifetimes profiles obtained in vivo allowed for discriminating between free dye or dye embedded within the cubosome nanostructure after injection.

  10. Touschek Lifetime Calculations for NSLS-II

    SciTech Connect

    Nash,B.; Kramer, S.

    2009-05-04

    The Touschek effect limits the lifetime for NSLS-II. The basic mechanism is Coulomb scattering resulting in a longitudinal momentum outside the momentum aperture. The momentum aperture results from a combination of the initial betatron oscillations after the scatter and the non-linear properties determining the resultant stability. We find that higher order multipole errors may reduce the momentum aperture, particularly for scattered particles with energy loss. The resultant drop in Touschek lifetime is minimized, however, due to less scattering in the dispersive regions. We describe these mechanisms, and present calculations for NSLS-II using a realistic lattice model including damping wigglers and engineering tolerances.

  11. Lifetime statistics in chaotic dielectric microresonators

    SciTech Connect

    Schomerus, Henning; Wiersig, Jan; Main, Joerg

    2009-05-15

    We discuss the statistical properties of lifetimes of electromagnetic quasibound states in dielectric microresonators with fully chaotic ray dynamics. Using the example of a resonator of stadium geometry, we find that a recently proposed random-matrix model very well describes the lifetime statistics of long-lived resonances, provided that two effective parameters are appropriately renormalized. This renormalization is linked to the formation of short-lived resonances, a mechanism also known from the fractal Weyl law and the resonance-trapping phenomen0008.

  12. Lifetime-weighted photoacoustic imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forbrich, A.; Shao, P.; Shi, W.; Zemp, Roger J.

    2016-12-01

    Photoacoustic (PA) imaging has been utilized to quantify the lifetime profile of exogenous agents using a series of pump-probe pulses with a varying time delay; however, current techniques typically lead to long acquisition times which are sensitive to motion and cause absorption or photobleaching. We introduce a technique called lifetime-weighted imaging, which uses only three laser pulses to preferentially weight signals from chromophores with long lifetimes (including exogenous contrast agents with triplet excited states such as methylene blue and porphyrins) while nulling chromophores with short picosecond- to nanosecond-scale lifetimes (including hemoglobin). This technique detects the PA signal from a probe pulse either with or without a pump pulse. By subtracting the probe-only signal from the pump-present probe signal, we effectively eliminate signals from chromophores with short lifetimes while preserving PA signals from chromophores with long-lifetimes. We demonstrate the oxygen-dependent lifetime of both methylene blue and porphyrin-lipids and demonstrate both ground-state recovery and excited-state lifetime-weighted imaging. Lifetime-weighted PA imaging may have applications in many molecular imaging application including: photodynamic therapy dosimetry guidance and oxygen sensing.

  13. Energy Savings Lifetimes and Persistence

    SciTech Connect

    Hoffman, Ian M.; Schiller, Steven R.; Todd, Annika; Billingsley, Megan A.; Goldman, Charles A.; Schwartz, Lisa C.

    2016-02-01

    This technical brief explains the concepts of energy savings lifetimes and savings persistence and discusses how program administrators use these factors to calculate savings for efficiency measures, programs and portfolios. Savings lifetime is the length of time that one or more energy efficiency measures or activities save energy, and savings persistence is the change in savings throughout the functional life of a given efficiency measure or activity. Savings lifetimes are essential for assessing the lifecycle benefits and cost effectiveness of efficiency activities and for forecasting loads in resource planning. The brief also provides estimates of savings lifetimes derived from a national collection of costs and savings for electric efficiency programs and portfolios.

  14. Influence of age, sex and calendar year on lifetime accumulated red bone marrow dose from diagnostic radiation exposure.

    PubMed

    Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Meiboom, Merle Friederike; Weitmann, Kerstin; Terschüren, Claudia; von Boetticher, Heiner

    2013-01-01

    Our aim is to evaluate the relevance of different factors influencing lifetime accumulated red bone marrow dose, such as calendar year, age and sex. The lifetime dose was estimated for controls interviewed in person (N = 2811, 37.5% women) of the population-based representative Northern Germany Leukemia and Lymphoma Study. Data were assessed in standardized computer-assisted personal interviews. The calculation of doses is based on a comprehensive quantification model including calendar year, sex, kind of examination, and technical development. In multivariate regression models the annual red bone marrow dose was analyzed depending on age, sex and calendar year to consider simultaneously temporal changes in radiologic practice and individual risk factors. While the number of examinations continuously rises over time, the dose shows two peaks around 1950 and after 1980. Men are exposed to higher doses than woman. Until 1970 traditional examinations like conventional and mass screening examinations caused the main dose. They were then replaced by technically advanced examinations mainly computed tomography and cardiac catheter. The distribution of the red bone marrow dose over lifetime depends highly on the technical standards and radiation protection survey. To a lesser extent it is influenced by age and sex of the subjects. Thus epidemiological studies concerning the assessment of radiation exposure should consider the calendar year in which the examination was conducted.

  15. Lifetime income patterns and alcohol consumption: Investigating the association between long- and short-term income trajectories and drinking

    PubMed Central

    Cerdá, Magdalena; Johnson-Lawrence, Vicki; Galea, Sandro

    2011-01-01

    Lifetime patterns of income may be an important driver of alcohol use. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between long-term and short-term measures of income and the relative odds of abstaining, drinking lightly-moderately and drinking heavily. We used data from the US Panel Study on Income Dynamics (PSID), a national population-based cohort that has been followed annually or biannually since 1968. We examined 3111 adult respondents aged 30-44 in 1997. Latent class growth mixture models with a censored normal distribution were used to estimate income trajectories followed by the respondent families from 1968-1997, while repeated measures multinomial generalized logit models estimated the odds of abstinence (no drinks per day) or heavy drinking (at least 3 drinks a day), relative to light/moderate drinking (<1-2 drinks a day), in 1999-2003. Lower income was associated with higher odds of abstinence and of heavy drinking, relative to light/moderate drinking. For example, belonging to a household with stable low income ($11-20,000) over 30 years was associated with 1.57 odds of abstinence, and 2.14 odds of heavy drinking in adulthood. The association between lifetime income patterns and alcohol use decreased in magnitude and became non-significant once we controlled for past-year income, education and occupation. Lifetime income patterns may have an indirect association with alcohol use, mediated through current socioeconomic conditions. PMID:21890256

  16. Lifetime income patterns and alcohol consumption: investigating the association between long- and short-term income trajectories and drinking.

    PubMed

    Cerdá, Magdalena; Johnson-Lawrence, Vicki D; Galea, Sandro

    2011-10-01

    Lifetime patterns of income may be an important driver of alcohol use. In this study, we evaluated the relationship between long-term and short-term measures of income and the relative odds of abstaining, drinking lightly-moderately and drinking heavily. We used data from the US Panel Study on Income Dynamics (PSID), a national population-based cohort that has been followed annually or biannually since 1968. We examined 3111 adult respondents aged 30-44 in 1997. Latent class growth mixture models with a censored normal distribution were used to estimate income trajectories followed by the respondent families from 1968 to 1997, while repeated measures multinomial generalized logit models estimated the odds of abstinence (no drinks per day) or heavy drinking (at least 3 drinks a day), relative to light/moderate drinking (<1-2 drinks a day), in 1999-2003. Lower income was associated with higher odds of abstinence and of heavy drinking, relative to light/moderate drinking. For example, belonging to a household with stable low income ($11-20,000) over 30 years was associated with 1.57 odds of abstinence, and 2.14 odds of heavy drinking in adulthood. The association between lifetime income patterns and alcohol use decreased in magnitude and became non-significant once we controlled for past-year income, education and occupation. Lifetime income patterns may have an indirect association with alcohol use, mediated through current socioeconomic conditions.

  17. Lifetime Estimation of High Power White LEDs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ishizaki, Shinya; Kimura, Hideyoshi; Sugimoto, Masaru

    We have developed a high power and long lifetime white LED module which can be used in general lighting applications. Since the materials in the package are very robust at high temperatures, the device can be operated at junction temperatures (Tj) over 250°C. Moreover, the thermal resistance of the package is less than 20°C/W. Therefore the device can be operated at input power as high as 2.4 W, making it possible to shorten the duration of accelerated lifetime tests. An acceleration ratio greater than 100 has been achieved. Assuming a thermally activated degradation process and applying the Arrhenius model, the LED chip lifetime (defined as a 50% reduction in luminous flux) is determined to be 40,000 hours for a Tj of 130°C. The activation energy of the degradation process was determined to be 1.55 eV.

  18. Association of Lifetime Intellectual Enrichment with Cognitive Decline in the Older Population

    PubMed Central

    Vemuri, Prashanthi; Lesnick, Timothy G.; Przybelski, Scott A.; Machulda, Mary; Knopman, David S.; Mielke, Michelle M.; Roberts, Rosebud O.; Geda, Yonas E.; Rocca, Walter A.; Petersen, Ronald C.; Jack, Clifford R.

    2014-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Intellectual lifestyle enrichment throughout life is increasingly viewed as a protective strategy against commonly observed cognitive decline in the elderly. OBJECTIVE To investigate the association of lifetime intellectual enrichment with baseline cognitive performance and rate of cognitive decline in a non-demented elderly population and to estimate difference (in years) associated with lifetime intellectual enrichment to the onset of cognitive impairment. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS Prospective analysis of subjects enrolled in the Mayo Clinic Study of Aging (MCSA), a longitudinal population-based study of cognitive aging in Olmsted County, Minnesota. We studied 1995 non-demented (1718 cognitively normal, 277 MCI) participants in MCSA who completed intellectual lifestyle measures at baseline and underwent at least one follow-up visit. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES We studied the effect of lifetime intellectual enrichment by separating the variables into two non-overlapping principal components: education/occupation-score and mid/late-life cognitive activity measure based on self-report questionnaires. A global cognitive Z-score served as our summary cognition measure. We used linear mixed-effects models to investigate the associations of demographic and intellectual enrichment measures with global cognitive Z-score trajectories. RESULTS Baseline cognitive performance was lower in older subjects and in those with lower education/occupation, lower mid/late-life cognitive activity, apolipoprotein E4 (APOE) genotype, and in men. The interaction between the two intellectual enrichment measures was significant such that the beneficial effect of mid/late-life cognitive activity on baseline cognitive performance was reduced with increasing education/occupation. Only baseline age, mid/late-life cognitive activity, and APOE4 genotype were significantly associated with longitudinal change in cognitive performance from baseline. For APOE4 carriers with high

  19. Photoacoustic lifetime contrast between methylene blue monomers and self-quenched dimers as a model for dual-labeled activatable probes

    PubMed Central

    Shao, Qi; Hackel, Benjamin J.; Thomas, David D.; Ashkenazi, Shai

    2013-01-01

    Abstract. Activatable photoacoustic probes efficiently combine the high spatial resolution and penetration depth of ultrasound with the high optical contrast and versatility of molecular imaging agents. Our approach is based on photoacoustic probing of the excited-state lifetime of methylene blue (MB), a fluorophore widely used in clinical therapeutic and diagnostic applications. Upon aggregation, static quenching between the bound molecules dramatically shortens their lifetime by three orders of magnitude. We present preliminary results demonstrating the ability of photoacoustic imaging to probe the lifetime contrast between monomers and dimers with high sensitivity in cylindrical phantoms. Gradual dimerization enhancement, driven by the addition of increasing concentrations of sodium sulfate to a MB solution, showed that lifetime-based photoacoustic probing decreases linearly with monomer concentration. Similarly, the addition of 4 mM sodium dodecyl sulfate, a concentration that amplifies MB aggregation and reduces the monomer concentration by more than 20-fold, led to a signal decrease of more than 20 dB compared to a solution free of surfactant. These results suggest that photoacoustic imaging can be used to selectively detect the presence of monomers. We conclude by discussing the implementation of the monomer–dimer contrast mechanism for the development of an enzyme-specific activatable probe. PMID:23640075

  20. Protochlorophyll complexes with similar steady-state fluorescence characteristics can differ in fluorescence lifetimes. A model study in Triton X-100.

    PubMed

    Myśliwa-Kurdziel, Beata; Solymosi, Katalin; Kruk, Jerzy; Böddi, Béla; Strzałka, Kazimierz

    2007-03-01

    The steady-state and time-resolved fluorescence characteristics of protochlorophyll (Pchl) dissolved in neat Triton X-100 and in Triton X-100 micelles were investigated, and the fluorescence lifetimes of different Pchl spectral forms were studied. Varying the concentration of Pchl or diluting the micellar solutions either with a buffer or with a micellar solution, 631-634, 645-655, 680-692 and above 700 nm emitting Pchl complexes were prepared, the ratios of which varied from one another. The fluorescence decay of the 631-634 nm emitting (monomeric) form had a mono-exponential character with a 5.4-ns fluorescence lifetime. The long-wavelength Pchl complexes (aggregates) had two fluorescence lifetime values within a range of 1.4-3.9 ns and 0.15-0.84 ns, which showed high variability in different environments. Depending on the conditions, either mono- or double-exponential fluorescence decay was found for a fluorescence band at 680-685 nm. These data show that despite their very similar steady-state fluorescence properties, Pchl complexes can differ in fluorescence lifetimes, which may reflect different molecular structures, intrinsic geometries or different molecular interactions. This underlines the importance of complex spectroscopic analysis for a precise description of native and artificial chlorophyllous pigment forms.

  1. Tremendously increased lifetime of MCP-PMTs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lehmann, A.; Britting, A.; Eyrich, W.; Pfaffinger, M.; Uhlig, F.; Belias, A.; Dzhygadlo, R.; Gerhardt, A.; Götzen, K.; Kalicy, G.; Krebs, M.; Lehmann, D.; Nerling, F.; Patsyuk, M.; Peters, K.; Schepers, G.; Schmitt, L.; Schwarz, C.; Schwiening, J.; Traxler, M.; Zühlsdorf, M.; Düren, M.; Etzelmüller, E.; Föhl, K.; Hayrapetyan, A.; Kröck, B.; Merle, O.; Rieke, J.; Schmidt, M.; Cowie, E.; Keri, T.; Achenbach, P.; Cardinali, M.; Hoek, M.; Lauth, W.; Schlimme, S.; Sfienti, C.; Thiel, M.

    2017-02-01

    Microchannel plate (MCP) PMTs are very attractive photon sensors for low light level applications in strong magnetic fields. However, until recently the main drawback of MCP-PMTs was their aging behavior which manifests itself in a limited lifetime due to a rapidly decreasing quantum efficiency (QE) of the photo cathode (PC) as the integrated anode charge (IAC) increases. In the latest models of PHOTONIS, Hamamatsu, and BINP novel techniques are applied to avoid these aging effects which are supposed to be mainly caused by feedback ion impinging on the PC and damaging it. For more than four years we are running a long-term aging test with new lifetime-enhanced MCP-PMT models by simultaneously illuminating various PMTs with roughly the same photon rate. This allows a fair comparison of the lifetime of all investigated MCP-PMTs and will give some insight into the best techniques to be applied for a lifetime enhancement. In this paper the results of comprehensive aging tests will be discussed. Gain, dark count rate and QE were investigated for their dependence on the IAC. The QE was measured spectrally resolved and as a function of the position across the PC to identify regions where the damage develops first. For the best performing tubes the lifetime improvement compared to former MCP-PMTs is a factor of ∼ 50 based on an IAC of meanwhile > 10 C /cm2. This breakthrough in the lifetime of MCP-PMTs was achieved by coating the MCP pores with an atomic layer deposition (ALD) technique.

  2. Alcohol consumption and survival of colorectal cancer patients: a population-based study from Germany.

    PubMed

    Walter, Viola; Jansen, Lina; Ulrich, Alexis; Roth, Wilfried; Bläker, Hendrik; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Hoffmeister, Michael; Brenner, Hermann

    2016-06-01

    Studies on the association between alcohol consumption and colorectal cancer (CRC) prognosis have yielded inconsistent results. The associations of lifetime and 1-y prediagnostic alcohol consumption with relevant prognostic outcomes were evaluated in a large population-based cohort of CRC patients. In 2003-2010, 3121 patients diagnosed with CRC were interviewed on sociodemographic and lifestyle factors, medication, and comorbidities. Cancer recurrence, vital status, and cause of death were documented for a median follow-up time of 4.8 y. With the use of Cox proportional hazard regression, associations between lifetime and recent alcohol consumption and overall, CRC-specific, recurrence-free, and disease-free survival were analyzed. In this patient cohort with a median age of 69 y at diagnosis, lifetime abstainers showed poorer overall [adjusted HR (aHR): 1.25; 95% CI: 1.03, 1.52] and CRC-specific (aHR: 1.37; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.70) survival than lifetime light drinkers (women: >0-12 g/d; men: >0-24 g/d). Lifetime heavy drinkers showed poorer overall (aHR: 1.37; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.78) and disease-free (aHR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.74) survival. Alcohol abstaining in the year before diagnosis was associated with poorer overall (aHR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.20, 1.68), CRC-specific (aHR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.68), and disease-free (aHR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.44) survival. Lifetime abstainers with nonmetastatic disease showed poorer CRC-specific (aHR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.00) and recurrence-free (aHR: 1.32; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.70) survival. Wine abstaining but not beer or liquor abstaining was associated with poorer survival. Associations between alcohol consumption and prognosis varied according to presence of diabetes and age. Prediagnostic alcohol abstaining and heavy drinking were associated with poorer survival after a CRC diagnosis than light drinking. The protective effects of light consumption might be restricted to wine, and associations might differ according to age and presence

  3. Systematic review of the prevalence of bipolar disorder and bipolar spectrum disorders in population-based studies.

    PubMed

    Dell'Aglio, José Caetano; Basso, Lissia Ana; Argimon, Irani Iracema de Lima; Arteche, Adriane

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the findings of a systematic literature review aimed at providing an overview of the lifetime prevalence of bipolar disorder and bipolar spectrum disorders in population-based studies. Databases MEDLINE, ProQuest, Psychnet, and Web of Science were browsed for papers published in English between 1999 and May 2012 using the following search string: bipolar disorders OR bipolar spectrum disorders AND prevalence OR cross-sectional OR epidemiology AND population-based OR non-clinical OR community based. The search yielded a total of 434 papers, but only those published in peer-reviewed journals and with samples aged ≥ 18 years were included, resulting in a final sample of 18 papers. Results revealed rather heterogeneous findings concerning the prevalence of bipolar disorders and bipolar spectrum disorders. Lifetime prevalence of bipolar disorder ranged from 0.1 to 7.5%, whereas lifetime prevalence of bipolar spectrum disorders ranged from 2.4 to 15.1%. Differences in the rates of bipolar disorder and bipolar spectrum disorders may be related to the consideration of subthreshold criteria upon diagnosis. Differences in the prevalence of different subtypes of the disorder are discussed in light of diagnostic criteria and instruments applied.

  4. Traffic congestion and the lifetime of networks with moving nodes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Xianxia; Li, Jie; Pu, Cunlai; Yan, Meichen; Sharafat, Rajput Ramiz; Yang, Jian; Gakis, Konstantinos; Pardalos, Panos M.

    2017-01-01

    For many power-limited networks, such as wireless sensor networks and mobile ad hoc networks, maximizing the network lifetime is the first concern in the related designing and maintaining activities. We study the network lifetime from the perspective of network science. In our model, nodes are initially assigned a fixed amount of energy moving in a square area and consume the energy when delivering packets. We obtain four different traffic regimes: no, slow, fast, and absolute congestion regimes, which are basically dependent on the packet generation rate. We derive the network lifetime by considering the specific regime of the traffic flow. We find that traffic congestion inversely affects network lifetime in the sense that high traffic congestion results in short network lifetime. We also discuss the impacts of factors such as communication radius, node moving speed, routing strategy, etc., on network lifetime and traffic congestion.

  5. Analysis of lifetime control in high-voltage IGBTs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yuan, X.; Udrea, F.; Coulbeck, L.; Waind, P. R.; Amaratunga, G. A. J.

    2002-01-01

    This paper discusses the effectiveness of the lifetime control technology in high-voltage insulated gate bipolar transistors (IGBTs) by using both numerical simulations and a two-dimensional on-state analytical model specifically developed for IGBTs with local lifetime killing. A comprehensive study of the static and dynamic performance of IGBTs using lifetime control technology in comparison with IGBTs featuring reduced anode injection efficiency structures is made. We show for the first time that IGBTs with low anode injection efficiency have similar or better on-state/switching trade-off when compared to equivalent IGBTs using lifetime control technology. We also show that both the local lifetime control and the low anode injection efficiency techniques are superior to full irradiation. The low anode injection efficiency is particularly better than the local lifetime control technique when applied to punch-though IGBTs while no difference between the two is found in non-punch-though IGBTs.

  6. Traffic congestion and the lifetime of networks with moving nodes.

    PubMed

    Yang, Xianxia; Li, Jie; Pu, Cunlai; Yan, Meichen; Sharafat, Rajput Ramiz; Yang, Jian; Gakis, Konstantinos; Pardalos, Panos M

    2017-01-01

    For many power-limited networks, such as wireless sensor networks and mobile ad hoc networks, maximizing the network lifetime is the first concern in the related designing and maintaining activities. We study the network lifetime from the perspective of network science. In our model, nodes are initially assigned a fixed amount of energy moving in a square area and consume the energy when delivering packets. We obtain four different traffic regimes: no, slow, fast, and absolute congestion regimes, which are basically dependent on the packet generation rate. We derive the network lifetime by considering the specific regime of the traffic flow. We find that traffic congestion inversely affects network lifetime in the sense that high traffic congestion results in short network lifetime. We also discuss the impacts of factors such as communication radius, node moving speed, routing strategy, etc., on network lifetime and traffic congestion.

  7. Lifetime risk of depression.

    PubMed

    Wittchen, H U; Knäuper, B; Kessler, R C

    1994-12-01

    Over the past decade, major epidemiological studies have been conducted to determine the prevalence of depressive syndromes, primarily major depression or dysthymia. The highest prevalences occur in younger cohorts (18-29 years); considerably lower prevalences are found in older individuals (45 years and above), with the lowest in those aged 65 and older. Several studies have confirmed an increase in the cumulative lifetime estimates of major depression in successively younger birth cohorts during this century. At the same time, questions have been raised about the low prevalence of depression in the elderly, including the role of confounding factors (e.g. differential morbidity and response-biased memory). Standardised diagnostic assessment procedures may be insufficiently adapted for use in the elderly. It has also been recognised that a substantial number of elderly individuals suffer from clinically relevant symptoms of depression but do not meet the criteria for major depression. Future research will be required to elucidate fully the apparently changing rates of depression.

  8. Clinical and social outcomes of adolescent self harm: population based birth cohort study

    PubMed Central

    Heron, Jon; Crane, Catherine; Hawton, Keith; Lewis, Glyn; Macleod, John; Tilling, Kate; Gunnell, David

    2014-01-01

    Objectives To investigate the mental health, substance use, educational, and occupational outcomes of adolescents who self harm in a general population sample, and to examine whether these outcomes differ according to self reported suicidal intent. Design Population based birth cohort study. Setting Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a UK birth cohort of children born in 1991-92. Participants Data on lifetime history of self harm with and without suicidal intent were available for 4799 respondents who completed a detailed self harm questionnaire at age 16 years. Multiple imputation was used to account for missing data. Main outcome measures Mental health problems (depression and anxiety disorder), assessed using the clinical interview schedule-revised at age 18 years, self reported substance use (alcohol, cannabis, cigarette smoking, and illicit drugs) at age 18 years, educational attainment at age 16 and 19 years, occupational outcomes at age 19 years, and self harm at age 21 years. Results Participants who self harmed with and without suicidal intent at age 16 years were at increased risk of developing mental health problems, future self harm, and problem substance misuse, with stronger associations for suicidal self harm than for non-suicidal self harm. For example, in models adjusted for confounders the odds ratio for depression at age 18 years was 2.21 (95% confidence interval 1.55 to 3.15) in participants who had self harmed without suicidal intent at age 16 years and 3.94 (2.67 to 5.83) in those who had self harmed with suicidal intent. Suicidal self harm, but not self harm without suicidal intent, was also associated with poorer educational and employment outcomes. Conclusions Adolescents who self harm seem to be vulnerable to a range of adverse outcomes in early adulthood. Risks were generally stronger in those who had self harmed with suicidal intent, but outcomes were also poor among those who had self harmed without suicidal

  9. Induced abortion, pregnancy loss and intimate partner violence in Tanzania: a population based study.

    PubMed

    Stöckl, Heidi; Filippi, Veronique; Watts, Charlotte; Mbwambo, Jessie K K

    2012-03-05

    Violence by an intimate partner is increasingly recognized as an important public and reproductive health issue. The aim of this study is to investigate the extent to which physical and/or sexual intimate partner violence is associated with induced abortion and pregnancy loss from other causes and to compare this with other, more commonly recognized explanatory factors. This study analyzes the data of the Tanzania section of the WHO Multi-Country Study on Women's Health and Domestic Violence, a large population-based cross-sectional survey of women of reproductive age in Dar es Salaam and Mbeya, Tanzania, conducted from 2001 to 2002. All women who answered positively to at least one of the questions about specific acts of physical or sexual violence committed by a partner towards her at any point in her life were considered to have experienced intimate partner violence. Associations between self reported induced abortion and pregnancy loss with intimate partner violence were analysed using multiple regression models. Lifetime physical and/or sexual intimate partner violence was reported by 41% and 56% of ever partnered, ever pregnant women in Dar es Salaam and Mbeya respectively. Among the ever pregnant, ever partnered women, 23% experienced involuntary pregnancy loss, while 7% reported induced abortion. Even after adjusting for other explanatory factors, women who experienced intimate partner violence were 1.6 (95%CI: 1.06,1.60) times more likely to report an pregnancy loss and 1.9 (95%CI: 1.30,2.89) times more likely to report an induced abortion. Intimate partner violence had a stronger influence on induced abortion and pregnancy loss than women's age, socio-economic status, and number of live born children. Intimate partner violence is likely to be an important influence on levels of induced abortion and pregnancy loss in Tanzania. Preventing intimate partner violence may therefore be beneficial for maternal health and pregnancy outcomes. © 2012 Stöckl et al

  10. Population-based, Case-Control-Family Design to Investigate Genetic and Environmental Influences on Melanoma Risk

    PubMed Central

    Cust, Anne E.; Schmid, Helen; Maskiell, Judith A.; Jetann, Jodie; Ferguson, Megan; Holland, Elizabeth A.; Agha-Hamilton, Chantelle; Jenkins, Mark A.; Kelly, John; Kefford, Richard F.; Giles, Graham G.; Armstrong, Bruce K.; Aitken, Joanne F.; Hopper, John L.; Mann, Graham J.

    2009-01-01

    Discovering and understanding genetic risk factors for melanoma and their interactions with phenotype, sun exposure, and other risk factors could lead to new strategies for melanoma control. This paper describes the Australian Melanoma Family Study, which uses a multicenter, population-based, case-control-family design. From 2001 to 2005, the authors recruited 1,164 probands including 629 cases with histopathologically confirmed, first-primary cutaneous melanoma diagnosed before age 40 years, 240 population-based controls frequency matched for age, and 295 spouse/friend controls. Information on lifetime sun exposure, phenotype, and residence history was collected for probands and nearly 4,000 living relatives. More than 3,000 subjects donated a blood sample. Proxy-reported information was collected for childhood sun exposure and deceased relatives. Important features of this study include the population-based, family-based design; a focus on early onset disease; probands from 3 major cities differing substantially in solar ultraviolet exposure and melanoma incidence; a population at high risk because of high ultraviolet exposure and susceptible pigmentation phenotypes; population-based, spouse/friend, and sibling controls; systematic recruitment of relatives of case and control probands; self and parent reports of childhood sun exposure; and objective clinical skin examinations. The authors discuss methodological and analytical issues related to the study design and conduct, as well as the potentially novel insights the study can deliver. PMID:19887461

  11. Guiding principles and checklist for population-based quality metrics.

    PubMed

    Krishnan, Mahesh; Brunelli, Steven M; Maddux, Franklin W; Parker, Thomas F; Johnson, Douglas; Nissenson, Allen R; Collins, Allan; Lacson, Eduardo

    2014-06-06

    The Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services oversees the ESRD Quality Incentive Program to ensure that the highest quality of health care is provided by outpatient dialysis facilities that treat patients with ESRD. To that end, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services uses clinical performance measures to evaluate quality of care under a pay-for-performance or value-based purchasing model. Now more than ever, the ESRD therapeutic area serves as the vanguard of health care delivery. By translating medical evidence into clinical performance measures, the ESRD Prospective Payment System became the first disease-specific sector using the pay-for-performance model. A major challenge for the creation and implementation of clinical performance measures is the adjustments that are necessary to transition from taking care of individual patients to managing the care of patient populations. The National Quality Forum and others have developed effective and appropriate population-based clinical performance measures quality metrics that can be aggregated at the physician, hospital, dialysis facility, nursing home, or surgery center level. Clinical performance measures considered for endorsement by the National Quality Forum are evaluated using five key criteria: evidence, performance gap, and priority (impact); reliability; validity; feasibility; and usability and use. We have developed a checklist of special considerations for clinical performance measure development according to these National Quality Forum criteria. Although the checklist is focused on ESRD, it could also have broad application to chronic disease states, where health care delivery organizations seek to enhance quality, safety, and efficiency of their services. Clinical performance measures are likely to become the norm for tracking performance for health care insurers. Thus, it is critical that the methodologies used to develop such metrics serve the payer and the provider and most importantly, reflect

  12. Prevalence of mood and anxiety disorder in self reported irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). An epidemiological population based study of women

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Background Irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) is commonly regarded as a functional disorder, and is hypothesized to be associated with anxiety and depression. This evidence mainly rests on population-based studies utilising self-report screening instruments for psychopathology. Other studies applying structured clinical interviews are generally based on small clinical samples, which are vulnerable to biases. The extant evidence base for an association between IBS and psychopathology is hence not conclusive. The aim of this study was therefore to re-examine the hypothesis using population-based data and psychiatric morbidity established with a structured clinical interview. Methods Data were derived from a population-based epidemiological study (n = 1077). Anxiety and mood disorders were established using the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV-TR (SCID-I/NP) and the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12). Current and lifetime IBS was self-reported. Hypertension and diabetes were employed as comparison groups as they are expected to be unrelated to mental health. Results Current IBS (n = 69, 6.4%) was associated with an increased likelihood of current mood and/or anxiety disorders (OR = 2.62, 95%CI 1.49 - 4.60). Half the population reporting a lifetime IBS diagnosis also had a lifetime mood or anxiety disorder. Exploratory analyses demonstrated an increased prevalence of IBS across most common anxiety and mood disorders, the exception being bipolar disorder. The association with IBS and symptoms load (GHQ-12) followed a curved dose response pattern. In contrast, hypertension and diabetes were consistently unrelated to psychiatric morbidity. Conclusions IBS is significantly associated with anxiety and mood disorders. This study provides indicative evidence for IBS as a disorder with a psychosomatic aspect. PMID:20687933

  13. Measurement of Adults’ Sedentary Time in Population-Based Studies

    PubMed Central

    Healy, Genevieve N.; Clark, Bronwyn K.; Winkler, Elisabeth A.H.; Gardiner, Paul A.; Brown, Wendy J.; Matthews, Charles E.

    2011-01-01

    Sedentary time (too much sitting) is increasingly being recognized as a distinct health risk behavior. This paper reviews the reliability and validity of self-reported and device-based sedentary time measures and provides recommendations for their use in population-based studies. The focus is on instruments that have been used in free-living, population-based research in adults. Data from the 2003–2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey are utilized to compare the descriptive epidemiology of sedentary time that arises from the use of different sedentary time measures. A key recommendation from this review is that, wherever possible, population-based monitoring of sedentary time should incorporate both self-reported measures (to capture important domain- and behavior-specific sedentary time information) and device-based measures (to measure both total sedentary time and patterns of sedentary time accumulation). PMID:21767730

  14. Dynamical lifetimes of asteroids in retrograde orbits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kankiewicz, Paweł; Włodarczyk, Ireneusz

    2017-07-01

    The population of known minor bodies in retrograde orbits (i > 90°) that are classified as asteroids is still growing. The aim of our study was to estimate the dynamical lifetimes of these bodies using the latest observational data, including astrometry and physical properties. We selected 25 asteroids with the best-determined orbital elements. We studied their dynamical evolution in the past and future for ±100 Myr (±1 Gyr for three particular cases). We first used orbit determination and cloning to produce swarms of test particles. These swarms were then input into long-term numerical integrations, and the orbital elements were averaged. Next, we collected the available thermal properties of our objects and we used them in an enhanced dynamical model with Yarkovsky forces. We also used a gravitational model for comparison. Finally, we estimated the median lifetimes of 25 asteroids. We found three objects whose retrograde orbits were stable with a dynamical lifetime τ ˜ 10-100 Myr. A large portion of the objects studied displayed smaller values of τ (τ ˜ 1 Myr). In addition, we studied the possible influence of the Yarkovsky effect on our results. We found that the Yarkovsky effect can have a significant influence on the lifetimes of asteroids in retrograde orbits. Because of the presence of this effect, it is possible that the median lifetimes of these objects are extended. Additionally, the changes in orbital elements, caused by Yarkovsky forces, appear to depend on the integration direction. To explain this more precisely, the same model based on new physical parameters, determined from future observations, will be required.

  15. Global three-dimensional model calculations of the budgets and present-day atmospheric lifetimes of CF sub 2 C l CFC l sub 2 (CFC-113) and CHC l F sub 2 2 (CFC-22)

    SciTech Connect

    Golombek, A.; Prinn, R.G. )

    1989-10-01

    The annual percentage increases in concentrations of the chlorofluorocarbons CF{sub 2}ClCFCl{sub 2} (CFC-113, an industrial solvent) and CHClF{sub 2} (CFC-22, a refrigerant) are the highest among major chlorofluorocarbons in the atmosphere today. We have computed the present-day atmospheric lifetimes for these species using a global three-dimensional dynamical-chemical model. The present-day lifetimes of both are long (15.5 years for CHClF{sub 2}, and 136 or 195 years for CF{sub 2}ClCFCl{sub 2} depending on assumed O{sub 2} absorption cross-sections) underscoring the need to decrease their emissions in order to minimize their future role in ozone destruction and greenhouse warming. {copyright} American Geophysical Union 1989

  16. Correlates of weight instability across the lifespan in a population-based sample.

    PubMed

    Serdar, Kasey L; Mazzeo, Suzanne E; Mitchell, Karen S; Aggen, Steven H; Kendler, Kenneth S; Bulik, Cynthia M

    2011-09-01

    Research from overweight/obese clinical samples links weight instability to poor health. This study investigated whether negative health outcomes were associated with weight instability in a population-based sample. One thousand five hundred ten women and 1,111 men from the Mid-Atlantic Twin Registry completed questionnaires assessing demographics, body size in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, health satisfaction, and disordered eating. Noneating disorder psychiatric diagnoses were assessed via clinical interviews. Weight instability was related to lower health satisfaction and self-esteem, and higher body dissatisfaction, dieting, and binge eating for both sexes. Weight unstable women were more likely to meet criteria for lifetime major depressive disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, and eating disorders. Weight stable women were more likely to abuse alcohol; however, two of these associations [e.g. weight instability and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and weight stability and alcohol abuse] became nonsignificant once lifetime binge eating was accounted for, indicating that these forms of psychopathology are more strongly related to binge eating than weight instability itself. No associations between weight stability and psychiatric diagnoses were found in men. Weight instability is related to mental and physical health concerns for both sexes. It was also specifically associated with depression and eating pathology in women. Copyright © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  17. Correlates of Weight Instability across the Lifespan in a Population-Based Sample

    PubMed Central

    Serdar, Kasey L.; Mazzeo, Suzanne E.; Mitchell, Karen S.; Aggen, Steven H.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Bulik, Cynthia M.

    2014-01-01

    Objective Research from overweight/obese clinical samples links weight instability to poor health. This study investigated whether negative health outcomes were associated with weight instability in a population-based sample. Method One thousand five hundred ten women and 1,111 men from the Mid-Atlantic Twin Registry completed questionnaires assessing demographics, body size in childhood, adolescence, and adulthood, health satisfaction, and disordered eating. Noneating disorder psychiatric diagnoses were assessed via clinical interviews. Results Weight instability was related to lower health satisfaction and self-esteem, and higher body dissatisfaction, dieting, and binge eating for both sexes. Weight unstable women were more likely to meet criteria for lifetime major depressive disorder, generalized anxiety disorder, and eating disorders. Weight stable women were more likely to abuse alcohol; however, two of these associations [e.g. weight instability and generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) and weight stability and alcohol abuse] became non-significant once lifetime binge eating was accounted for, indicating that these forms of psychopathology are more strongly related to binge eating than weight instability itself. No associations between weight stability and psychiatric diagnoses were found in men. Discussion Weight instability is related to mental and physical health concerns for both sexes. It was also specifically associated with depression and eating pathology in women. PMID:20957706

  18. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models for lifetime exposure to PCB 153 in male and female harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena): model development and evaluation.

    PubMed

    Weijs, Liesbeth; Yang, Raymond S H; Covaci, Adrian; Das, Krishna; Blust, Ronny

    2010-09-15

    Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models were developed for the most persistent polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB 153) in male and female harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) to elucidate processes such as uptake, distribution, and elimination. Due to its limited metabolic capacities, long life span, and top position in marine food chains, this species is highly sensitive to pollution. The models consist of 5 compartments, liver, blubber, kidney, brain, and a compartment which accounts for the rest of the body, all connected through blood. All physiological and biochemical parameters were extracted from the literature, except for the brain/blood partition coefficient and rate of excretion, which were both fitted to data sets used for validation of the models. These data sets were compiled from our own analyses performed with GC-MS on tissue samples of harbor porpoises. The intake of PCB 153 was from milk from birth to 4 months, and after weaning fish was the main food source. Overall, these models reveal that concentrations of PCB 153 in males increase with age but suggest that, as the animals grow older, metabolic transformation can be a possible pathway for elimination as well. In contrast, the model for females confirms that gestation and lactation are key processes for eliminating PCB 153 as body burdens decrease with age. These PBPK models are capable of simulating the bioaccumulation of PCB 153 during the entire life span of approximately 20 years of the harbor porpoises.

  19. Disease management to population-based health: steps in the right direction?

    PubMed

    Sprague, Lisa

    2003-05-16

    This issue brief reviews the evolution of the disease management model and the ways it relates to care coordination and case management approaches. It also looks at examples of population-based disease management programs operating in both the private and public sectors and reviews the evidence of their success. Finally, the paper considers the policy implications of adapting this model to a Medicare fee-for-service population.

  20. Spectral dependence of carrier lifetimes in silicon for photovoltaic applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roller, John F.; Li, Yu-Tai; Dagenais, Mario; Hamadani, Behrang H.

    2016-12-01

    Charge carrier lifetimes in photovoltaic-grade silicon wafers were measured by a spectral-dependent, quasi-steady-state photoconductance technique. Narrow bandwidth light emitting diodes were used to excite excess charge carriers within the material, and the effective lifetimes of these carriers were measured as a function of wavelength and intensity. The dependence of the effective lifetime on the excitation wavelength was then analyzed within the context of an analytical model relating effective lifetime to the bulk lifetime and surface recombination velocity of the material. The agreement between the model and the experimental data provides validation for this technique to be used at various stages of the solar cell production line to investigate the quality of the passivation layers and the bulk properties of the material.

  1. Young adults' trajectories of Ecstasy use: a population based study.

    PubMed

    Smirnov, Andrew; Najman, Jake M; Hayatbakhsh, Reza; Plotnikova, Maria; Wells, Helene; Legosz, Margot; Kemp, Robert

    2013-11-01

    Young adults' Ecstasy use trajectories have important implications for individual and population-level consequences of Ecstasy use, but little relevant research has been conducted. This study prospectively examines Ecstasy trajectories in a population-based sample. Data are from the Natural History Study of Drug Use, a retrospective/prospective cohort study conducted in Australia. Population screening identified a probability sample of Ecstasy users aged 19-23 years. Complete data for 30 months of follow-up, comprising 4 time intervals, were available for 297 participants (88.4% of sample). Trajectories were derived using cluster analysis based on recent Ecstasy use at each interval. Trajectory predictors were examined using a generalized ordered logit model and included Ecstasy dependence (World Mental Health Composite International Diagnostic Instrument), psychological distress (Hospital Anxiety Depression Scale), aggression (Young Adult Self Report) and contextual factors (e.g. attendance at electronic/dance music events). Three Ecstasy trajectories were identified (low, intermediate and high use). At its peak, the high-use trajectory involved 1-2 days Ecstasy use per week. Decreasing frequency of use was observed for intermediate and high-use trajectories from 12 months, independently of market factors. Intermediate and high-use trajectory membership was predicted by past Ecstasy consumption (>70 pills) and attendance at electronic/dance music events. High-use trajectory members were unlikely to have used Ecstasy for more than 3 years and tended to report consistently positive subjective effects at baseline. Given the social context and temporal course of Ecstasy use, Ecstasy trajectories might be better understood in terms of instrumental rather than addictive drug use patterns. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. The first large population based twin study of coeliac disease

    PubMed Central

    Greco, L; Romino, R; Coto, I; Di Cosmo, N; Percopo, S; Maglio, M; Paparo, F; Gasperi, V; Limongelli, M G; Cotichini, R; D'Agate, C; Tinto, N; Sacchetti, L; Tosi, R; Stazi, M A

    2002-01-01

    Background and aims: The genetic load in coeliac disease has hitherto been inferred from case series or anecdotally referred twin pairs. We have evaluated the genetic component in coeliac disease by estimating the concordance rate for the disease among twin pairs in a large population based study. Methods: The Italian Twin Registry was matched with the membership lists of a patient support group. Forty seven twin pairs were recruited and screened for antiendomysial (EMA) and antihuman-tissue transglutaminase (anti-tTG) antibodies; zygosity was verified by DNA fingerprinting and twins were typed for HLA class II DRB1 and DQB1 molecules. Results: Concordance rates for coeliac disease differ significantly between monozygotic (MZ) (0.86 probandwise and 0.75 pairwise) and dizygotic (DZ) (0.20 probandwise and 0.11 pairwise) twins. This is the highest concordance so far reported for a multifactorial disease. A logistic regression model, adjusted for age, sex, number of shared HLA haplotypes, and zygosity, showed that genotypes DQA1*0501/DQB1*0201 and DQA1*0301/DQB1*0302 (encoding for heterodimers DQ2 and DQ8, respectively) conferred to the non-index twin a risk of contracting the disease of 3.3 and 1.4, respectively. The risk of being concordant for coeliac disease estimated for the non-index twin of MZ pairs was 17 (95% confidence interval 2.1–134), independent of the DQ at risk genotype. Conclusion: This study provides substantial evidence for a very strong genetic component in coeliac disease, which is only partially due to the HLA region. PMID:11950806

  3. Stratification of ALS patients' survival: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Marin, Benoît; Couratier, Philippe; Arcuti, Simona; Copetti, Massimiliano; Fontana, Andrea; Nicol, Marie; Raymondeau, Marie; Logroscino, Giancarlo; Preux, Pierre Marie

    2016-01-01

    The natural history of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and patient risk stratification are areas of considerable research interest. We aimed (1) to describe the survival of a representative cohort of French ALS patients, and (2) to identify covariates associated with various patterns of survival using a risk classification analysis. ALS patients recruited in the FRALim register (2000-2013) were included. Time-to-death analyses were performed using Kaplan-Meier method and Cox model. A recursive partitioning and amalgamation (RECPAM) algorithm analysis identified subgroups of patients with different patterns of survival. Among 322 patients, median survival times were 26.2 and 15.6 months from time of onset and of diagnosis, respectively. Four groups of patients were identified, depending on their baseline characteristics and survival (1) ALSFRS-R slope >0.46/month and definite or probable ALS (median survival time (MST) 10.6 months); (2) ALSFRS-R slope >0.46/month and possible or probable laboratory-supported ALS (MST: 18.1 months); (3) ALSFRS-R slope ≤0.46/month and definite or probable ALS (MST: 22.5 months), and (4) ALSFRS-R slope ≤0.46/month and possible or probable laboratory-supported ALS (MST: 37.6 months). Median survival time is among the shortest ever reported by a worldwide population-based study. This is probably related to the age structure of the patients (the oldest identified to date), driven by the underlying population (30 % of subjects older than 60 years). Further research in the field of risk stratification could help physicians better anticipate prognosis of ALS patients, and help improve the design of randomized controlled trials.

  4. Distributions of personal VOC exposures: a population-based analysis.

    PubMed

    Jia, Chunrong; D'Souza, Jennifer; Batterman, Stuart

    2008-10-01

    Information regarding the distribution of volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations and exposures is scarce, and there have been few, if any, studies using population-based samples from which representative estimates can be derived. This study characterizes distributions of personal exposures to ten different VOCs in the U.S. measured in the 1999--2000 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Personal VOC exposures were collected for 669 individuals over 2-3 days, and measurements were weighted to derive national-level statistics. Four common exposure sources were identified using factor analyses: gasoline vapor and vehicle exhaust, methyl tert-butyl ether (MBTE) as a gasoline additive, tap water disinfection products, and household cleaning products. Benzene, toluene, ethyl benzene, xylenes chloroform, and tetrachloroethene were fit to log-normal distributions with reasonably good agreement to observations. 1,4-Dichlorobenzene and trichloroethene were fit to Pareto distributions, and MTBE to Weibull distribution, but agreement was poor. However, distributions that attempt to match all of the VOC exposure data can lead to incorrect conclusions regarding the level and frequency of the higher exposures. Maximum Gumbel distributions gave generally good fits to extrema, however, they could not fully represent the highest exposures of the NHANES measurements. The analysis suggests that complete models for the distribution of VOC exposures require an approach that combines standard and extreme value distributions, and that carefully identifies outliers. This is the first study to provide national-level and representative statistics regarding the VOC exposures, and its results have important implications for risk assessment and probabilistic analyses.

  5. Increasing incidence of cataract surgery: Population-based study

    PubMed Central

    Gollogly, Heidrun E.; Hodge, David O.; St. Sauver, Jennifer L.; Erie, Jay C.

    2015-01-01

    PURPOSE To estimate the incidence of cataract surgery in a defined population and to determine longitudinal cataract surgery patterns. SETTING Mayo Clinic, Rochester, Minnesota, USA. DESIGN Cohort study. METHODS Rochester Epidemiology Project (REP) databases were used to identify all incident cataract surgeries in Olmsted County, Minnesota, between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2011. Age-specific and sex-specific incidence rates were calculated and adjusted to the 2010 United States white population. Data were merged with previous REP data (1980 to 2004) to assess temporal trends in cataract surgery. Change in the incidence over time was assessed by fitting generalized linear models assuming a Poisson error structure. The probability of second-eye cataract surgery was calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. RESULTS Included were 8012 cataract surgeries from 2005 through 2011. During this time, incident cataract surgery significantly increased (P < .001), peaking in 2011 with a rate of 1100 per 100 000 (95% confidence interval, 1050–1160). The probability of second-eye surgery 3, 12, and 24 months after first-eye surgery was 60%, 76%, and 86%, respectively, a significant increase compared with the same intervals in the previous 7 years (1998 to 2004) (P < .001). When merged with 1980 to 2004 REP data, incident cataract surgery steadily increased over the past 3 decades (P < .001). CONCLUSION Incident cataract surgery steadily increased over the past 32 years and has not leveled off, as reported in Swedish population-based series. Second-eye surgery was performed sooner and more frequently, with 60% of residents having second-eye surgery within 3-months of first-eye surgery. PMID:23820302

  6. Lifetime cover in private insurance markets.

    PubMed

    Brown, H Shelton; Connelly, Luke B

    2005-03-01

    In the last few decades, private health insurance rates have declined in many countries. In countries and states with community rating, a major cause is adverse selection. In order to address age-based adverse selection, Australia has recently begun a novel approach which imposes stiff penalties for buying private insurance later in life, when expected costs are higher. In this paper, we analyze Australia's Lifetime Cover in the context of a modified version of the Rothschild-Stiglitz insurance model (Rothschild and Stiglitz, 1976). We allow empirically-based probabilities to increase by age for low-risk types. The model highlights the shortcomings of the Australian plan. Based on empirically-based probabilities of illness, we predict that Lifetime Cover will not arrest adverse selection. The model has many policy implications for government regulation encouraging long-term health coverage.

  7. ADOLESCENT DRINKING ONSET AND ITS ADULT CONSEQUENCES AMONG MEN: A POPULATION BASED STUDY FROM INDIA

    PubMed Central

    Pillai, Aravind; Nayak, Madhabika B.; Greenfield, Thomas K.; Bond, Jason C.; Hasin, Deborah S.; Patel, Vikram

    2014-01-01

    Background Few population-based studies from low and middle-income countries have addressed adolescent drinking onset and its association with adult alcohol-related adverse outcomes. The aims of this study were to: (1) estimate the rate of adolescent drinking onset and its trend over time among men (2) describe demographic and socioeconomic factors associated with adolescent drinking onset; and (3) examine the association between adolescent drinking onset and adverse outcomes in later life, including hazardous or harmful alcohol use, heavy episodic drinking, alcohol dependence, injuries, and psychological distress. Methods Population based survey of men (n=1899) from rural and urban communities in northern Goa, India. Analysis addressed age of drinking onset among those who reported ever drinking in their lifetime, and drinking patterns and consequences among current drinkers. Results Adolescent drinking onset showed an increasing trend over time (p<0.001), from 19.5% for those born between 1956 and 1960 to 74.3% for those born between 1981 and 1985. Urban residence, Christian religion and low standard of living were associated with adolescent drinking onset. Adolescent drinking onset was associated with psychological distress (OR 2.82; 95% CI 1.41–5.63), alcohol dependence (OR 2.56; 95% CI 1.79–3.68), lifetime history of alcohol related injuries (OR 3.07; 95% CI 1.16–8.14), alcohol related injuries during the past year (OR 3.04; 95% CI 1.35–6.81), and a Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test (AUDIT) score ≥ 8 indicating hazardous or harmful alcohol use (OR 1.9; 95% CI 1.17–3.08) in adulthood. Conclusions This study among men in Goa, India suggests a substantial increase in adolescent drinking onset in more recent birth cohorts. Consistent with other countries, adolescent drinking onset increased the likelihood of lifetime alcohol dependence, hazardous or harmful alcohol use, alcohol related injuries, and psychological distress. These findings

  8. SIRTF thermal design modifications to increase lifetime

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrick, S. W.

    1993-01-01

    An effort was made to increase the predicted lifetime of the SIRTF dewar by lowering the exterior shell temperature, increasing the radiated energy from the vapor cooled shields and reconfiguring the vapor cooled shields. The lifetime increases can be used to increase the scientific return from the mission and as a trade-off against mass and cost. This paper describes the configurations studied, the steady state thermal model used, the analytical methods and the results of the analysis. Much of the heat input to the outside dewar shell is radiative heat transfer from the solar panel. To lower the shell temperature, radiative cooled shields were placed between the solar panel and the dewar shell and between the bus and the dewar shell. Analysis showed that placing a radiator on the outer vapor cooled shield had a significant effect on lifetime. Lengthening the distance between the outer shell and the point where the vapor cooled shields are attached to the support straps also improved lifetime.

  9. The use of metabolomics in population-based research.

    PubMed

    Su, L Joseph; Fiehn, Oliver; Maruvada, Padma; Moore, Steven C; O'Keefe, Stephen J; Wishart, David S; Zanetti, Krista A

    2014-11-01

    The NIH has made a significant commitment through the NIH Common Fund's Metabolomics Program to build infrastructure and capacity for metabolomics research, which should accelerate the field. Given this investment, it is the ideal time to start planning strategies to capitalize on the infrastructure being established. An obvious gap in the literature relates to the effective use of metabolomics in large-population studies. Although published reports from population-based studies are beginning to emerge, the number to date remains relatively small. Yet, there is great potential for using metabolomics in population-based studies to evaluate the effects of nutritional, pharmaceutical, and environmental exposures (the "exposome"); conduct risk assessments; predict disease development; and diagnose diseases. Currently, the majority of the metabolomics studies in human populations are in nutrition or nutrition-related fields. This symposium provided a timely venue to highlight the current state-of-science on the use of metabolomics in population-based research. This session provided a forum at which investigators with extensive experience in performing research within large initiatives, multi-investigator grants, and epidemiology consortia could stimulate discussion and ideas for population-based metabolomics research and, in turn, improve knowledge to help devise effective methods of health research. © 2014 American Society for Nutrition.

  10. Big Data for Population-Based Cancer Research

    PubMed Central

    Meyer, Anne-Marie; Olshan, Andrew F.; Green, Laura; Meyer, Adrian; Wheeler, Stephanie B.; Basch, Ethan; Carpenter, William R.

    2016-01-01

    The Integrated Cancer Information and Surveillance System (ICISS) facilitates population-based cancer research by developing extensive information technology systems that can link and manage large data sets. Taking an interdisciplinary “team science” approach, ICISS has developed data, systems, and methods that allow researchers to better leverage the power of big data to improve population health. PMID:25046092

  11. Measurement of the tau lifetime

    SciTech Connect

    Jaros, J.A.

    1982-10-01

    If the tau lepton couples to the charged weak current with universal strength, its lifetime can be expressed in terms of the muon's lifetime, the ratio of the masses of the muon and the tau, and the tau's branching ratio into e anti nu/sub e/ nu/sub tau/ as tau/sub tau/ = tau/sub ..mu../ (m/sub ..mu..//m/sub tau/)/sup 5/ B(tau ..-->.. e anti nu/sub e/nu/sub tau/) = 2.8 +- 0.2 x 10/sup -13/ s. This paper describes the measurement of the tau lifetime made by the Mark II collaboration, using a new high precision drift chamber in contunction with the Mark II detector at PEP. The results of other tau lifetime measurements are summarized.

  12. High energy beam lifetime analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Howell, R.H.; Sterne, P.A.; Hartley, J.; Cowan, T.E.

    1997-05-01

    We have developed a positron lifetime defect analysis capability based on a 3 MeV electrostatic accelerator. The high energy beam lifetime spectrometer is operational with a 60 mCi {sup 22}Na source providing a current of 7 10{sup 5} positrons per second. Lifetime data are derived from a thin plastic transmission detector providing an implantation time and a BaF{sub 2} detector to determine the annihilation time. Positron lifetime analysis is performed with a 3 MeV positron beam on thick sample specimens at counting rates in excess of 2000 per second. The instrument is being used for bulk sample analysis and analysis of samples encapsulated in controlled environments for in situ measurements.

  13. Lifetime Measurements in 162Dy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Casarella, Clark; Aprahamian, A.; Lesher, S.; Crider, B.; Lowe, M.; Peters, E.; Prados-Estevez, F.; Ross, T.; Tully, Z.; Yates, S.

    2015-10-01

    Historically, the rare-earth region of nuclei has been a fountainhead for nuclear structure phenomena. One of the more debated structure effects is the nature of excited 0+ bands in nuclei, and continues to be an outstanding challenge in nuclear structure physics; several interpretations exist, and we hope that lifetime measurements can help distinguish between them. 162Dy has an abundance of 0+ states with limited lifetime data; we have measured excitation functions, mean lifetimes, and angular distributions of gamma rays for excited states in 162Dy at the University of Kentucky Accelerator Laboratory. Low lying excited states were populated up to an excitation energy of E < 3.2 MeV, where we will discuss the implications of the lifetimes under this energy threshold. This work was supported by the NSF under contract numbers PHY-1068192, PHY-1205412, and PHY-0956310.

  14. LETTER TO THE EDITOR: The Mott metal - insulator transition in the two-dimensional Hubbard model at half-filling with lifetime effects within the moment approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rodríguez-Núñez, J. J.; Schafroth, S.

    1998-06-01

    We explore the effect of the self-energy, 0953-8984/10/23/002/img5, having a single pole, 0953-8984/10/23/002/img6, with spectral weight 0953-8984/10/23/002/img7 and quasi-particle lifetime 0953-8984/10/23/002/img8, on the density of states. We obtain the set of parameters 0953-8984/10/23/002/img6, 0953-8984/10/23/002/img7, and 0953-8984/10/23/002/img8 by means of the moment approach (exact sum rules) of Nolting. Due to our choice of self-energy, the system is not a Fermi liquid for any value of the interaction, a result which also holds in the moment approach of Nolting without lifetime effects. Our self-energy satisfies the Kramers - Kronig relationships since it is analytic in one of the complex half-planes. By increasing the value of the local interaction, 0953-8984/10/23/002/img12, at half-filling 0953-8984/10/23/002/img13, there is a transition from a paramagnetic metal to a paramagnetic insulator (a Mott metal - insulator transition) for values of 0953-8984/10/23/002/img12 of the order of 0953-8984/10/23/002/img15 (W is the bandwidth) which is in agreement with numerical results for finite lattices and for an infinite number of dimensions 0953-8984/10/23/002/img16. These results expose the main weakness of the spherical approximation of Nolting: a finite gap for any finite value of the interaction, i.e., an insulator for any finite value of 0953-8984/10/23/002/img12. Lifetime effects are absolutely indispensable to making our scheme work better than that based on improving the narrowing band factor, 0953-8984/10/23/002/img18, beyond that obtained from the spherical approximation of Nolting.

  15. Performance of the ISAAC questionnaire to establish the prevalence of asthma in adolescents: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Lukrafka, Janice L; Fuchs, Sandra C; Moreira, Leila B; Picon, Rafael V; Fischer, Gilberto B; Fuchs, Flavio D

    2010-03-01

    The epidemiology of asthma has been investigated with questionnaires, such as the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood protocol. To investigate the performance of the questions of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood questionnaire to diagnose asthma in adolescents. This is a population-based cross-sectional study of adolescents in the Syndrome of Obesity and Risk Factors for Cardiovascular Disease study. The validity of the asthma symptoms of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood protocol was assessed by calculating sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative posttest probabilities, and Youden's Index, taking as a gold standard the history of a medical diagnosis of asthma. Risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusting for sex and age, were calculated using Cox regression model. In total, 575 adolescents were investigated. Overall, 28.7% reported a lifetime medical diagnosis of asthma, and 40.0% reported at least one episode of wheezing. Ever wheezing had the highest sensitivity (80.6%) for the diagnosis of asthma, compared with the other ISAAC questions. Adolescents who reported ever wheezing were about 8 times more likely (adjusted RR: 8.3; 95% CI: 4.9-14.2) to have ever had asthma, independent of age and sex. Symptoms within the last 12 months (wheezing, cough without cold or respiratory infection, sleep disturbed due to wheezing, wheezing due to exercise, speech limited due to wheezing) had specificity of 92.0% or higher. Dry cough at night without cold or respiratory infection was the strongest independent predictor of asthma (adjusted RR: 8.8; 95% CI: 6.1-12.7). Ever wheezing is the most sensitive indicator of the diagnosis of asthma but falsely identifies a portion of adolescents as asthmatic. Symptoms of asthma in the last 12 months, such as cough without cold or respiratory infection, are rarely positive in the absence of a lifetime asthma diagnosis. The combination of

  16. Fusion-component lifetime analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Mattas, R.F.

    1982-09-01

    A one-dimensional computer code has been developed to examine the lifetime of first-wall and impurity-control components. The code incorporates the operating and design parameters, the material characteristics, and the appropriate failure criteria for the individual components. The major emphasis of the modeling effort has been to calculate the temperature-stress-strain-radiation effects history of a component so that the synergystic effects between sputtering erosion, swelling, creep, fatigue, and crack growth can be examined. The general forms of the property equations are the same for all materials in order to provide the greatest flexibility for materials selection in the code. The individual coefficients within the equations are different for each material. The code is capable of determining the behavior of a plate, composed of either a single or dual material structure, that is either totally constrained or constrained from bending but not from expansion. The code has been utilized to analyze the first walls for FED/INTOR and DEMO and to analyze the limiter for FED/INTOR.

  17. Predicting the lifetime of superlubricity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Anle; He, Qichang; Xu, Zhiping

    2015-12-01

    The concept of superlubricity has recently called upon notable interest after the demonstration of ultralow friction between atomistically smooth surfaces in layered materials. However, the energy dissipation process conditioning the sustainability of a superlubric state has not yet been well understood. In this work, we address this issue by performing dynamic simulations based on both full-atom and reduced Frenkel-Kontorova models. We find that the center-of-mass momentum autocorrelation of a sliding object can be used as a statistical indicator of the state of superlubricity. Beyond a critical value of it, the sliding motion experiences a catastrophic breakdown with a dramatically high rate of energy dissipation, caused by the inter-vibrational-mode coupling. By tracking this warning signal, one can extract heat from modes other than the translation to avoid the catastrophe and extend the lifetime of superlubricity. This concept is demonstrated in double-walled carbon-nanotubes-based nanomechanical devices with the indicator-based feedback design implemented.

  18. Same-Sex Behavior and its Relationship with Sexual and Health-Related Practices Among a Population-Based Sample of Women in Puerto Rico: Implications for Cancer Prevention and Control

    PubMed Central

    Soto-Salgado, Marievelisse; Colón-López, Vivian; Perez, Cynthia; Muñoz-Masso, Cristina; Marrero, Edmir; Suárez, Erick; Ortiz, Ana P.

    2017-01-01

    This secondary data analysis aimed to estimate the prevalence of same-sex behavior and sexual and health-related practices of a population-based sample (n=560) of women aged 16-64 years in Puerto Rico (PR). Data collection included interviews and biologic samples. Seven percent of the sample had had sex with other women (WSW). Age-adjusted logistic regression models indicated that WSW had higher odds of history of cancer, having ≥ 7 lifetime sexual partners, using sex toys and sharing them, and use of tobacco and illicit drugs. Future research is needed to address the health needs of WSW, including cancer-related risk factors and sexual practices. PMID:28286595

  19. Population-based public health interventions: innovations in practice, teaching, and management. Part II.

    PubMed

    Keller, Linda Olson; Strohschein, Susan; Schaffer, Marjorie A; Lia-Hoagberg, Betty

    2004-01-01

    The Intervention Wheel is a population-based practice model that encompasses three levels of practice (community, systems, and individual/family) and 17 public health interventions. Each intervention and practice level contributes to improving population health. The Intervention Wheel, previously known as the Public Health Intervention Model, was originally introduced in 1998 by the Minnesota Department of Health, Section of Public Health Nursing (PHN). The model has been widely disseminated and used throughout the United States since that time. The evidence supporting the Intervention Wheel was recently subjected to a rigorous critique by regional and national experts. This critical process, which involved hundreds of public health nurses, resulted in a more robust Intervention Wheel and established the validity of the model. The critique also produced basic steps and best practices for each of the 17 interventions. Part I describes the Intervention Wheel, defines population-based practice, and details the recommended modifications and validation process. Part II provides examples of the innovative ways that the Intervention Wheel is being used in public health/PHN practice, education, and administration. The two articles provide a foundation and vision for population-based PHN practice and direction for improving population health.

  20. Population-based public health interventions: practice-based and evidence-supported. Part I.

    PubMed

    Keller, Linda Olson; Strohschein, Susan; Lia-Hoagberg, Betty; Schaffer, Marjorie A

    2004-01-01

    The Intervention Wheel is a population-based practice model that encompasses three levels of practice (community, systems, and individual/family) and 17 public health interventions. Each intervention and practice level contributes to improving population health. The Intervention Wheel, previously known as the Public Health Intervention Model, was originally introduced in 1998 by the Minnesota Department of Health, Section of Public Health Nursing. The model has been widely disseminated and used throughout the United States since that time. The evidence supporting the Intervention Wheel was recently subjected to a rigorous critique by regional and national experts. This critical process, which involved hundreds of public health nurses, resulted in a more robust Intervention Wheel and established the validity of the model. The critique also produced basic steps and best practices for each of the 17 interventions. Part I describes the Intervention Wheel, defines population-based practice, and details the recommended modifications and validation process. Part II provides examples of the innovative ways that the Intervention Wheel is being used in public health/public health nursing practice, education, and administration. The two articles provide a foundation and vision for population-based public health nursing practice and direction for improving population health.

  1. Increasing precision of lifetime determination in fluorescence lifetime imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, Ching-Wei; Mycek, Mary-Ann

    2010-02-01

    The interest in fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) is increasing, as commercial FLIM modules become available for confocal and multi-photon microscopy. In biological FLIM applications, low fluorescence signals from samples can be a challenge, and this causes poor precision in lifetime. In this study, for the first time, we applied wavelet-based denoising methods in time-domain FLIM, and compared them with our previously developed total variation (TV) denoising methods. They were first tested using artificial FLIM images. We then applied them to lowlight live-cell images. The results demonstrated that our TV methods could improve lifetime precision multi-fold in FLIM images and preserve the overall lifetime and pre-exponential term values when improving local lifetime fitting, while wavelet-based methods were faster. The results here can enhance the precision of FLIM, especially for low-light and / or fast video-rate imaging, to improve current and rapidly emerging new applications of FLIM such as live-cell, in vivo whole-animal, or endoscopic imaging.

  2. Prediction of elastomer lifetimes from accelerated thermal-aging experiments

    SciTech Connect

    Gillen, K.T.; Clough, R.L.

    1997-09-01

    For elastomers that will be used in applications involving long lifetimes, it is often necessary to first carry out and model accelerated aging experiments at higher than ambient temperatures, and then extrapolate the results in order to make lifetime predictions at the use temperature. Continuing goals in such endeavors are to better understand potential problems with such modeling approaches and to find ways of improving confidence in the predictions when the data are extrapolated. In this paper we will address several important issues involved in these procedures for elastomers exposed to air (oxygen), and discuss some potentially useful techniques and approaches which can increase confidence in lifetime predictions.

  3. Fluorescence lifetime contrast in small animal imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramanujan, V. Krishnan; Bandyopadhyay, Abhik; Sun, LuZhe; Herman, Brian A.

    2007-02-01

    Early detection of primary tumors is the key for effective therapeutic intervention and successful patient survival. Small animal models emulating human diseases are powerful tools for our comprehensive understanding of the pathophysiology of tumor formation and metastasis to distant sites. Our long-term goal is to develop a non-invasive, multiphoton-fluorescence lifetime imaging (MP-FLIM) modality that can precisely quantify these steps in animal tumor models at a very early stage. The specific hypothesis is that fluorescence lifetime can be employed as reliable contrast parameter for providing higher detection sensitivity as compared with conventional intensity-based tumor imaging approaches and therefore it is possible to detect smaller tumor volumes (early detection) than those achieved by other prevailing methods. We base this hypothesis on our recent observations that (1) fluorescence lifetime is "intrinsic" to the fluorophore and its measurement is not affected by concentration and/or spectral artifacts as in intensity-based methods, (2) multiphoton excitation can enable increased tissue penetrability and reduced phototoxicity and (3) MP-FLIM approach can discriminate background autofluorescence from the fluorescent proteins in thick tissues thereby achieving a ten-fold increase in signal-to-background ratio over the intensity-based approaches. We present our preliminary data to support this hypothesis in primary tumor detection in nu/nu athymic mouse models.

  4. Occupational exposure to asbestos and lung cancer in men: evidence from a population-based case-control study in eight Canadian provinces

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background Asbestos is classified as a human carcinogen, and studies have consistently demonstrated that workplace exposure to it increases the risk of developing lung cancer. Few studies have evaluated risks in population-based settings where there is a greater variety in the types of occupations, and exposures. Methods This was a population based case–control study with 1,681 incident cases of lung cancer, and 2,053 controls recruited from 8 Canadian provinces between 1994 and 1997. Self-reported questionnaires were used to elicit a lifetime occupational history, including general tasks, and information for other risk factors. Occupational hygienists, who were blinded to case–control status, assigned asbestos exposures to each job on the basis of (i) concentration (low, medium, high), (ii) frequency (<5%, 5-30%, and >30% of the time in a normal work week), and (iii) reliability (possible, probable, definite). Logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results Those occupationally exposed to (i) low, and (ii) medium or high concentrations of asbestos had ORs for lung cancer of 1.17 (95% CI=0.92 – 1.50) and 2.16 (95% CI=1.21-3.88), respectively, relative to those who were unexposed. Medium or high exposure to asbestos roughly doubled the risk for lung cancer across all three smoking pack-year categories. The joint relationship between smoking and asbestos was consistent with a multiplicative risk model. Conclusions Our findings provide further evidence that exposure to asbestos has contributed to an increased risk of lung cancer in Canadian workplaces, and suggests that nearly 3% of lung cancers among Canadian men are caused by occupational exposure to asbestos. PMID:23234401

  5. Cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for colorectal cancer: a comparison of guaiac-based faecal occult blood testing, faecal immunochemical testing and flexible sigmoidoscopy

    PubMed Central

    Sharp, L; Tilson, L; Whyte, S; O'Ceilleachair, A; Walsh, C; Usher, C; Tappenden, P; Chilcott, J; Staines, A; Barry, M; Comber, H

    2012-01-01

    Background: Several colorectal cancer-screening tests are available, but it is uncertain which provides the best balance of risks and benefits within a screening programme. We evaluated cost-effectiveness of a population-based screening programme in Ireland based on (i) biennial guaiac-based faecal occult blood testing (gFOBT) at ages 55–74, with reflex faecal immunochemical testing (FIT); (ii) biennial FIT at ages 55–74; and (iii) once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy (FSIG) at age 60. Methods: A state-transition model was used to estimate costs and outcomes for each screening scenario vs no screening. A third party payer perspective was adopted. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken. Results: All scenarios would be considered highly cost-effective compared with no screening. The lowest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER vs no screening €589 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained) was found for FSIG, followed by FIT (€1696) and gFOBT (€4428); gFOBT was dominated. Compared with FSIG, FIT was associated with greater gains in QALYs and reductions in lifetime cancer incidence and mortality, but was more costly, required considerably more colonoscopies and resulted in more complications. Results were robust to variations in parameter estimates. Conclusion: Population-based screening based on FIT is expected to result in greater health gains than a policy of gFOBT (with reflex FIT) or once-only FSIG, but would require significantly more colonoscopy resources and result in more individuals experiencing adverse effects. Weighing these advantages and disadvantages presents a considerable challenge to policy makers. PMID:22343624

  6. Cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for colorectal cancer: a comparison of guaiac-based faecal occult blood testing, faecal immunochemical testing and flexible sigmoidoscopy.

    PubMed

    Sharp, L; Tilson, L; Whyte, S; O'Ceilleachair, A; Walsh, C; Usher, C; Tappenden, P; Chilcott, J; Staines, A; Barry, M; Comber, H

    2012-02-28

    Several colorectal cancer-screening tests are available, but it is uncertain which provides the best balance of risks and benefits within a screening programme. We evaluated cost-effectiveness of a population-based screening programme in Ireland based on (i) biennial guaiac-based faecal occult blood testing (gFOBT) at ages 55-74, with reflex faecal immunochemical testing (FIT); (ii) biennial FIT at ages 55-74; and (iii) once-only flexible sigmoidoscopy (FSIG) at age 60. A state-transition model was used to estimate costs and outcomes for each screening scenario vs no screening. A third party payer perspective was adopted. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken. All scenarios would be considered highly cost-effective compared with no screening. The lowest incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER vs no screening euro 589 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained) was found for FSIG, followed by FIT euro 1696) and gFOBT (euro 4428); gFOBT was dominated. Compared with FSIG, FIT was associated with greater gains in QALYs and reductions in lifetime cancer incidence and mortality, but was more costly, required considerably more colonoscopies and resulted in more complications. Results were robust to variations in parameter estimates. Population-based screening based on FIT is expected to result in greater health gains than a policy of gFOBT (with reflex FIT) or once-only FSIG, but would require significantly more colonoscopy resources and result in more individuals experiencing adverse effects. Weighing these advantages and disadvantages presents a considerable challenge to policy makers.

  7. Prevalence of microcephaly in Europe: population based study.

    PubMed

    Morris, Joan K; Rankin, Judith; Garne, Ester; Loane, Maria; Greenlees, Ruth; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz; Barisic, Ingeborg; Bergman, Jorieke E H; Csaky-Szunyogh, Melinda; Dias, Carlos; Draper, Elizabeth S; Gatt, Miriam; Khoshnood, Babak; Klungsoyr, Kari; Kurinczuk, Jennifer J; Lynch, Catherine; McDonnell, Robert; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J; O'Mahony, Mary T; Pierini, Anna; Randrianaivo, Hanitra; Rissmann, Anke; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; de Walle, Hermien E K; Wellesley, Diana; Wiesel, Awi; Dolk, Helen

    2016-09-13

     To provide contemporary estimates of the prevalence of microcephaly in Europe, determine if the diagnosis of microcephaly is consistent across Europe, and evaluate whether changes in prevalence would be detected using the current European surveillance performed by EUROCAT (the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies).  Questionnaire and population based observational study.  24 EUROCAT registries covering 570 000 births annually in 15 countries.  Cases of microcephaly not associated with a genetic condition among live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks' gestation, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly at any gestation.  Prevalence of microcephaly (1 Jan 2003-31 Dec 2012) analysed with random effects Poisson regression models to account for heterogeneity across registries.  16 registries responded to the questionnaire, of which 44% (7/16) used the EUROCAT definition of microcephaly (a reduction in the size of the brain with a skull circumference more than 3 SD below the mean for sex, age, and ethnic origin), 19% (3/16) used a 2 SD cut off, 31% (5/16) were reliant on the criteria used by individual clinicians, and one changed criteria between 2003 and 2012. Prevalence of microcephaly in Europe was 1.53 (95% confidence interval 1.16 to 1.96) per 10 000 births, with registries varying from 0.4 (0.2 to 0.7) to 4.3 (3.6 to 5.0) per 10 000 (χ(2)=338, df=23, I(2)=93%). Registries with a 3 SD cut off reported a prevalence of 1.74 per 10 000 (0.86 to 2.93) compared with those with the less stringent 2 SD cut off of 1.21 per 10 000 (0.21 to 2.93). The prevalence of microcephaly would need to increase in one year by over 35% in Europe or by over 300% in a single registry to reach statistical significance (P<0.01).  EUROCAT could detect increases in the prevalence of microcephaly from the Zika virus of a similar magnitude to those observed in Brazil. Because of the rarity of microcephaly and discrepant diagnostic criteria, however, the smaller

  8. Prevalence of microcephaly in Europe: population based study

    PubMed Central

    Rankin, Judith; Garne, Ester; Loane, Maria; Greenlees, Ruth; Addor, Marie-Claude; Arriola, Larraitz; Barisic, Ingeborg; Bergman, Jorieke E H; Csaky-Szunyogh, Melinda; Dias, Carlos; Draper, Elizabeth S; Gatt, Miriam; Khoshnood, Babak; Klungsoyr, Kari; Kurinczuk, Jennifer J; Lynch, Catherine; McDonnell, Robert; Nelen, Vera; Neville, Amanda J; O’Mahony, Mary T; Pierini, Anna; Randrianaivo, Hanitra; Rissmann, Anke; Tucker, David; Verellen-Dumoulin, Christine; de Walle, Hermien E K; Wellesley, Diana; Wiesel, Awi; Dolk, Helen

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To provide contemporary estimates of the prevalence of microcephaly in Europe, determine if the diagnosis of microcephaly is consistent across Europe, and evaluate whether changes in prevalence would be detected using the current European surveillance performed by EUROCAT (the European Surveillance of Congenital Anomalies). Design Questionnaire and population based observational study. Setting 24 EUROCAT registries covering 570 000 births annually in 15 countries. Participants Cases of microcephaly not associated with a genetic condition among live births, fetal deaths from 20 weeks’ gestation, and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly at any gestation. Main outcome measures Prevalence of microcephaly (1 Jan 2003-31 Dec 2012) analysed with random effects Poisson regression models to account for heterogeneity across registries. Results 16 registries responded to the questionnaire, of which 44% (7/16) used the EUROCAT definition of microcephaly (a reduction in the size of the brain with a skull circumference more than 3 SD below the mean for sex, age, and ethnic origin), 19% (3/16) used a 2 SD cut off, 31% (5/16) were reliant on the criteria used by individual clinicians, and one changed criteria between 2003 and 2012. Prevalence of microcephaly in Europe was 1.53 (95% confidence interval 1.16 to 1.96) per 10 000 births, with registries varying from 0.4 (0.2 to 0.7) to 4.3 (3.6 to 5.0) per 10 000 (χ2=338, df=23, I2=93%). Registries with a 3 SD cut off reported a prevalence of 1.74 per 10 000 (0.86 to 2.93) compared with those with the less stringent 2 SD cut off of 1.21 per 10 000 (0.21 to 2.93). The prevalence of microcephaly would need to increase in one year by over 35% in Europe or by over 300% in a single registry to reach statistical significance (P<0.01). Conclusions EUROCAT could detect increases in the prevalence of microcephaly from the Zika virus of a similar magnitude to those observed in Brazil. Because of the rarity

  9. The multiple baseline design for evaluating population-based research.

    PubMed

    Hawkins, Nathan G; Sanson-Fisher, Robert W; Shakeshaft, Anthony; D'Este, Catherine; Green, Lawrence W

    2007-08-01

    There is a need for pragmatic and rigorous research designs to evaluate the effectiveness of population-based health interventions. The randomized controlled trial (RCT) has limitations in its practicality, ethical appropriateness, and cost when evaluating population-based interventions. Like RCTs, the multiple baseline design can demonstrate that a change in behavior has occurred, the change is a result of the intervention, and the change is significant. Especially important practical advantages over the RCT are that this design requires fewer population groups and communities may act as their own controls. Advantages and methodologic limitations of the multiple baseline design are discussed, and where feasible, strategies to minimize the impact of its limitations are suggested. Recommendations for future research are included.

  10. Importance of population-based studies in clinical practice

    PubMed Central

    Ronnie, George; Ve, Ramesh Sathyamangalam; Velumuri, Lokapavani; Asokan, Rashima; Vijaya, Lingam

    2011-01-01

    In the last decade, there have been reports on the prevalence of glaucoma from the Vellore Eye Survey, Andhra Pradesh Eye Diseases Survey, Aravind Comprehensive Eye Survey, Chennai Glaucoma Study and West Bengal Glaucoma Study. Population-based studies provide important information regarding the prevalence and risk factors for glaucoma. They also highlight regional differences in the prevalence of various types of glaucoma. It is possible to gather important insights regarding the number of persons affected with glaucoma and the proportion with undiagnosed disease. We reviewed the different population-based studies from India and compare their findings. The lacunae in ophthalmic care that can be inferred from these studies are identified and possible reasons and solutions are discussed. We also discuss the clinical relevance of the various findings, and how it reflects on clinical practice in the country. Since India has a significantly high disease burden, we examine the possibility of population-based screening for disease in the Indian context. PMID:21150021

  11. Neutrinos and cosmology: a lifetime relationship

    SciTech Connect

    Serpico, Pasquale D.; /Fermilab

    2008-06-01

    We consider the example of neutrino decays to illustrate the profound relation between laboratory neutrino physics and cosmology. Two case studies are presented: In the first one, we show how the high precision cosmic microwave background spectral data collected by the FIRAS instrument on board of COBE, when combined with Lab data, have greatly changed bounds on the radiative neutrino lifetime. In the second case, we speculate on the consequence for neutrino physics of the cosmological detection of neutrino masses even as small as {approx}0.06 eV, the lower limit guaranteed by neutrino oscillation experiments. We show that a detection at that level would improve by many orders of magnitude the existing limits on neutrino lifetime, and as a consequence on some models of neutrino secret interactions.

  12. Do quasars have cosmologically long lifetimes

    SciTech Connect

    Chanan, G.A.

    1982-01-01

    Turner and Tyson have independently suggested that the apparent evolution of quasars may be an artifact caused by (unseen) gravitational lenses; some of the problems inherent in the usual picture of space density evolution are thereby avoided. We discuss how these problems may be similarly avoided without invoking any such gravitational effects: apparent (and unreal) density evolution follows as an immediate consequence if quasar lifetimes (the only free parameter in our model) are of the order of 3 x 10/sup 9/ years. If the lifetimes are indeed this long, quasars may occur much less frequently than previously thought but, at the same time, the local density of quasars may have been grossly underestimated.

  13. Automated analysis of multimodal fluorescence lifetime imaging and optical coherence tomography data for the diagnosis of oral cancer in the hamster cheek pouch model

    PubMed Central

    Pande, Paritosh; Shrestha, Sebina; Park, Jesung; Gimenez-Conti, Irma; Brandon, Jimi; Applegate, Brian E.; Jo, Javier A.

    2016-01-01

    It is known that the progression of oral cancer is accompanied by changes in both tissue biochemistry and morphology. A multimodal imaging approach combining functional and structural imaging modalities could therefore provide a more comprehensive prognosis of oral cancer. This idea forms the central theme of the current study, wherein this premise is examined in the context of a multimodal imaging system that combines fluorescence lifetime imaging (FLIM) and optical coherence tomography (OCT). Towards this end, in the first part of the present study, the diagnostic advantage obtained by using both fluorescence intensity and lifetime information is assessed. In the second part of the study, the diagnostic potential of FLIM-derived biochemical features is compared with that of OCT-derived morphological features. For an objective assessment, several quantitative biochemical and morphological features from FLIM and OCT data, respectively, were obtained using signal and image processing techniques. These features were subsequently used in a statistical classification framework to quantify the diagnostic potential of different features. The classification accuracy for combined FLIM and OCT features was estimated to be 87.4%, which was statistically higher than accuracy based on only FLIM (83.2%) or OCT (81.0%) features. Moreover, the complimentary information provided by FLIM and OCT features, resulted in highest sensitivity and specificity for the combined FLIM and OCT features for discriminating benign (88.2% sens., 92.0% spec.), pre-cancerous (81.5% sens., 96.0% spec.), and cancerous (90.1% sens., 92.0% spec.) classes. PMID:27231638

  14. Automated analysis of multimodal fluorescence lifetime imaging and optical coherence tomography data for the diagnosis of oral cancer in the hamster cheek pouch model.

    PubMed

    Pande, Paritosh; Shrestha, Sebina; Park, Jesung; Gimenez-Conti, Irma; Brandon, Jimi; Applegate, Brian E; Jo, Javier A

    2016-05-01

    It is known that the progression of oral cancer is accompanied by changes in both tissue biochemistry and morphology. A multimodal imaging approach combining functional and structural imaging modalities could therefore provide a more comprehensive prognosis of oral cancer. This idea forms the central theme of the current study, wherein this premise is examined in the context of a multimodal imaging system that combines fluorescence lifetime imaging (FLIM) and optical coherence tomography (OCT). Towards this end, in the first part of the present study, the diagnostic advantage obtained by using both fluorescence intensity and lifetime information is assessed. In the second part of the study, the diagnostic potential of FLIM-derived biochemical features is compared with that of OCT-derived morphological features. For an objective assessment, several quantitative biochemical and morphological features from FLIM and OCT data, respectively, were obtained using signal and image processing techniques. These features were subsequently used in a statistical classification framework to quantify the diagnostic potential of different features. The classification accuracy for combined FLIM and OCT features was estimated to be 87.4%, which was statistically higher than accuracy based on only FLIM (83.2%) or OCT (81.0%) features. Moreover, the complimentary information provided by FLIM and OCT features, resulted in highest sensitivity and specificity for the combined FLIM and OCT features for discriminating benign (88.2% sens., 92.0% spec.), pre-cancerous (81.5% sens., 96.0% spec.), and cancerous (90.1% sens., 92.0% spec.) classes.

  15. Direct tests of muscle cross-bridge theories: predictions of a Brownian dumbbell model for position-dependent cross-bridge lifetimes and step sizes with an optically trapped actin filament.

    PubMed Central

    Smith, D A

    1998-01-01

    Force and displacement events from a single myosin molecule interacting with an actin filament suspended between optically trapped beads (Finer, J. T., R. M. Simmons, and J. A. Spudich. 1994. Nature. 368:113-119) can be interpreted in terms of a generalized cross-bridge model that includes the effects of Brownian forces on the beads. Steady-state distributions of force and displacement can be obtained directly from a generalized Smoluchowski equation for Brownian motion of the actin-bead "dumbbell," and time series from Monte Carlo simulations of the corresponding Langevin equation. When the frequency spectrum of Brownian motion extends beyond cross-bridge transition rates, the inverse mean lifetimes of force/displacement pulses are given by cross-bridge rate constants averaged over a Boltzmann distribution of Brownian noise. These averaged rate constants reflect the strain-dependence of the rate constants for the stationary filament, most faithfully at high trap stiffness. Hence, measurements of the lifetimes and displacements of single events as a function of the resting position of the dumbbell can provide a direct test of different cross-bridge theories of muscle contraction. Quantitative demonstrations are given for Huxley models with 1) faster binding or 2) slower dissociation at positive cross-bridge strain. Predictions for other models can be inferred from the averaging procedure. PMID:9826619

  16. Carrier lifetimes in silicon carbide

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nigam, Saurav

    Carrier lifetimes are one of the most crucial parameters that govern the performance of high voltage/high power devices. The lack of understanding of the factors that determine the carrier lifetimes in silicon carbide is currently a major impediment in the development of high voltage/high power technology based on this material. The objective of this dissertation was to identify and subsequently, characterize various recombination channels present in silicon carbide. Of special importance was identification of lifetime limiting defects in the high quality epitaxial layers grown by state-of-the-art chemical vapor deposition technique for high voltage application. The effect of growth conditions (C/Si ratio, growth temperature, seed polarity, epilayer thickness, and background doping) on the concentrations of various defects were investigated with the aim of manipulating carrier lifetimes by controlling different growth parameters. Based on the qualitative correlations between various point defects and carrier lifetimes in more than thirty epitaxial layers, three defects (Z-defect, EH6/7 center, and P1 center) were identified as potential lifetime limiting defects. The P1 center was shown to act as efficient recombination channel whenever present in concentrations greater than 1013 cm-3. Such concentrations were observed in layers grown on the C-face and at low C/Si ratio (less than 1.5). The measurement of recombination rates of electrons and holes via the Z-defect and the EH6/7 center (as a function of temperature) were performed by analyzing the carrier dynamics in specially designed p-n diodes. At 300 K, the capture cross section of the two states of the Z-defect were sigman1˜6x10-15 cm2 (electron capture at the donor state), sigmap1˜2x1014 cm2 (hole capture at the donor state), sigman2˜1x10 16 cm2 (electron capture at the acceptor state), and sigma p2˜1e-13 cm2 (hole capture at the acceptor state). The electron capture cross section for the EH6/7 centers was

  17. Prevalence of substance use disorders in psychiatric patients: a nationwide Danish population-based study.

    PubMed

    Toftdahl, Nanna Gilliam; Nordentoft, Merete; Hjorthøj, Carsten

    2016-01-01

    The present study established the national prevalence of substance use disorders (SUDs) among Danish psychiatric patients. Furthermore, patients with SUDs and those without SUDs were compared on a range of socio-demographic, clinical, and treatment characteristics. Data were obtained from several Danish population-based registers. The study population was defined as all individuals with incidents of schizophrenia, schizotypal disorder, other psychoses, bipolar disorder, depression, anxiety, obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD), post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD), and personality disorders since 1969. The prevalence of SUDs was examined for the following psychoactive substances: alcohol, opioids, cannabis, sedatives, cocaine, psycho-stimulants and hallucinogens. A total of 463,003 patients were included in the analysis. The prevalence of any lifetime SUD was: 37 % for schizophrenia, 35 % for schizotypal disorder, 28 % for other psychoses, 32 % for bipolar disorder, 25 % for depression, 25 % for anxiety, 11 % for OCD, 17% for PTSD, and 46 % for personality disorders. Alcohol use disorder was the most dominating SUD in every psychiatric category (25 % of all included patients). Patients with SUDs were more often men, had fewer years of formal education, more often received disability pension and died due to unnatural causes. The study was the most comprehensive of its kind so far to estimate the prevalence of SUDs in an unselected population-based cohort, and it revealed remarkably high prevalence among the psychiatric patients. The results should encourage continuous focus on possible comorbidity of psychiatric patients, as well as specialised and integrated treatment along with increased support of patients with comorbid disorders.

  18. On the method of positron lifetime measurement

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nishiyama, F.; Shizuma, K.; Nasai, H.; Nishi, M.

    1983-01-01

    A fast-slow coincidence system was constructed for the measurement of positron lifetimes in material. The time resolution of this system was 270 ps for the (60)Co gamma rays. Positron lifetime spectra for 14 kinds of alkali halides were measured with this system. Two lifetime components and their intensities were derived from analyses of the lifetime spectra.

  19. Fluorescence lifetime in cardiovascular diagnostics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcu, Laura

    2010-01-01

    We review fluorescence lifetime techniques including time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence spectroscopy (TR-LIFS) and fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) instrumentation and associated methodologies that allow for characterization and diagnosis of atherosclerotic plaques. Emphasis is placed on the translational research potential of TR-LIFS and FLIM and on determining whether intrinsic fluorescence signals can be used to provide useful contrast for the diagnosis of high-risk atherosclerotic plaque. Our results demonstrate that these techniques allow for the discrimination of important biochemical features involved in atherosclerotic plaque instability and rupture and show their potential for future intravascular applications.

  20. Parallel genetic algorithm with population-based sampling approach to discrete optimization under uncertainty

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subramanian, Nithya

    the laminate stiffness matrix implements a square fiber model with a fiber volume fraction sample. The calculations to establish the expected values of constraints and fitness values use the Classical Laminate Theory. The non-deterministic constraints enforced include the probability of satisfying the Tsai-Hill failure criterion and the maximum strain limit. The results from a deterministic optimization, optimization under uncertainty using Monte Carlo sampling and Population-Based Sampling are studied. Also, the work investigates the effectiveness of running the fitness analyses in parallel and the sampling scheme in parallel. Overall, the work conducted for this thesis demonstrated the efficacy of the GA with Population-Based Sampling for the focus problem and established improvements over previous implementations of the GA with PBS.

  1. Habitable zone lifetimes of exoplanets around main sequence stars.

    PubMed

    Rushby, Andrew J; Claire, Mark W; Osborn, Hugh; Watson, Andrew J

    2013-09-01

    The potential habitability of newly discovered exoplanets is initially assessed by determining whether their orbits fall within the circumstellar habitable zone of their star. However, the habitable zone (HZ) is not static in time or space, and its boundaries migrate outward at a rate proportional to the increase in luminosity of a star undergoing stellar evolution, possibly including or excluding planets over the course of the star's main sequence lifetime. We describe the time that a planet spends within the HZ as its "habitable zone lifetime." The HZ lifetime of a planet has strong astrobiological implications and is especially important when considering the evolution of complex life, which is likely to require a longer residence time within the HZ. Here, we present results from a simple model built to investigate the evolution of the "classic" HZ over time, while also providing estimates for the evolution of stellar luminosity over time in order to develop a "hybrid" HZ model. These models return estimates for the HZ lifetimes of Earth and 7 confirmed HZ exoplanets and 27 unconfirmed Kepler candidates. The HZ lifetime for Earth ranges between 6.29 and 7.79×10⁹ years (Gyr). The 7 exoplanets fall in a range between ∼1 and 54.72 Gyr, while the 27 Kepler candidate planets' HZ lifetimes range between 0.43 and 18.8 Gyr. Our results show that exoplanet HD 85512b is no longer within the HZ, assuming it has an Earth analog atmosphere. The HZ lifetime should be considered in future models of planetary habitability as setting an upper limit on the lifetime of any potential exoplanetary biosphere, and also for identifying planets of high astrobiological potential for continued observational or modeling campaigns.

  2. Final report on reliability and lifetime prediction.

    SciTech Connect

    Gillen, Kenneth T; Wise, Jonathan; Jones, Gary D.; Causa, Al G.; Terrill, Edward R.; Borowczak, Marc

    2012-12-01

    This document highlights the important results obtained from the subtask of the Goodyear CRADA devoted to better understanding reliability of tires and to developing better lifetime prediction methods. The overall objective was to establish the chemical and physical basis for the degradation of tires using standard as well as unique models and experimental techniques. Of particular interest was the potential application of our unique modulus profiling apparatus for assessing tire properties and for following tire degradation. During the course of this complex investigation, extensive relevant information was generated, including experimental results, data analyses and development of models and instruments. Detailed descriptions of the findings are included in this report.

  3. Key drivers of methane lifetime from 1860-2100

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    John, J. G.; Fiore, A. M.; Naik, V.; Horowitz, L. W.

    2011-12-01

    Atmospheric methane (CH4) is the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas after carbon dioxide, and is a key component of atmospheric chemistry. Oxidation by the hydroxyl radical is the primary determinant of atmospheric methane lifetime. Hence, factors that regulate OH also drive changes in methane lifetime. We investigate the trends and key drivers of methane lifetime in a suite of historical (1860-2005) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) simulations (2005-2100) conducted with the GFDL fully coupled chemistry-climate model (CM3) in support of the 5th coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5/IPCC AR5). Over the historical period, the methane lifetime increases slightly (5%) from 1860-1879 to 1986-2005. We use additional sensitivity simulations over the historical period to separate the impacts on methane lifetime from short-lived climate forcing agents, well-mixed greenhouse gases, and aerosol-cloud interactions. In the RCP4.5 (moderate warming) future scenario, methane lifetime decreases by 13% from 2006-2025 to 2081-2100. Using a future simulation in which only well-mixed greenhouse gas emission are allowed to change (following the RCP4.5 scenario), we show that a warming climate leads to a shorter methane lifetime (by 5%) from the direct impact of temperature on the CH4+OH rate constant, as well as from enhanced OH associated with increased water vapor and lightning NOx. Changes in short-lived climate forcing agents in the full RCP4.5 scenario further reinforce the climate-driven changes. In contrast, the methane lifetime increases by 4% in the RCP8.5 scenario, despite the extreme warming (>4K below 500 hPa). In this simulation, we find that the large rise in CH4 abundance (approximate doubling) counteracts the tendency of rising temperature, water vapor, and lightning NOx and decreasing CO emissions to decrease methane lifetime.