Accurate aging of juvenile salmonids using fork lengths

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sethi, Suresh; Gerken, Jonathon; Ashline, Joshua

2017-01-01

Juvenile salmon life history strategies, survival, and habitat interactions may vary by age cohort. However, aging individual juvenile fish using scale reading is time consuming and can be error prone. Fork length data are routinely measured while sampling juvenile salmonids. We explore the performance of aging juvenile fish based solely on fork length data, using finite Gaussian mixture models to describe multimodal size distributions and estimate optimal age-discriminating length thresholds. Fork length-based ages are compared against a validation set of juvenile coho salmon, Oncorynchus kisutch, aged by scales. Results for juvenile coho salmon indicate greater than 95% accuracy can be achieved by aging fish using length thresholds estimated from mixture models. Highest accuracy is achieved when aged fish are compared to length thresholds generated from samples from the same drainage, time of year, and habitat type (lentic versus lotic), although relatively high aging accuracy can still be achieved when thresholds are extrapolated to fish from populations in different years or drainages. Fork length-based aging thresholds are applicable for taxa for which multiple age cohorts coexist sympatrically. Where applicable, the method of aging individual fish is relatively quick to implement and can avoid ager interpretation bias common in scale-based aging.

Predictors of the nicotine reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand in a rodent model of nicotine reduction policy.

PubMed

Grebenstein, Patricia E; Burroughs, Danielle; Roiko, Samuel A; Pentel, Paul R; LeSage, Mark G

2015-06-01

The FDA is considering reducing the nicotine content in tobacco products as a population-based strategy to reduce tobacco addiction. Research is needed to determine the threshold level of nicotine needed to maintain smoking and the extent of compensatory smoking that could occur during nicotine reduction. Sources of variability in these measures across sub-populations also need to be identified so that policies can take into account the risks and benefits of nicotine reduction in vulnerable populations. The present study examined these issues in a rodent nicotine self-administration model of nicotine reduction policy to characterize individual differences in nicotine reinforcement thresholds, degree of compensation, and elasticity of demand during progressive reduction of the unit nicotine dose. The ability of individual differences in baseline nicotine intake and nicotine pharmacokinetics to predict responses to dose reduction was also examined. Considerable variability in the reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand was evident. High baseline nicotine intake was not correlated with the reinforcement threshold, but predicted less compensation and less elastic demand. Higher nicotine clearance predicted low reinforcement thresholds, greater compensation, and less elastic demand. Less elastic demand also predicted lower reinforcement thresholds. These findings suggest that baseline nicotine intake, nicotine clearance, and the essential value of nicotine (i.e. elasticity of demand) moderate the effects of progressive nicotine reduction in rats and warrant further study in humans. They also suggest that smokers with fast nicotine metabolism may be more vulnerable to the risks of nicotine reduction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of the nicotine reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand in a rodent model of nicotine reduction policy*

PubMed Central

Grebenstein, Patricia E.; Burroughs, Danielle; Roiko, Samuel A.; Pentel, Paul R.; LeSage, Mark G.

2015-01-01

Background The FDA is considering reducing the nicotine content in tobacco products as a population-based strategy to reduce tobacco addiction. Research is needed to determine the threshold level of nicotine needed to maintain smoking and the extent of compensatory smoking that could occur during nicotine reduction. Sources of variability in these measures across sub-populations also need to be identified so that policies can take into account the risks and benefits of nicotine reduction in vulnerable populations. Methods The present study examined these issues in a rodent nicotine self- administration model of nicotine reduction policy to characterize individual differences in nicotine reinforcement thresholds, degree of compensation, and elasticity of demand during progressive reduction of the unit nicotine dose. The ability of individual differences in baseline nicotine intake and nicotine pharmacokinetics to predict responses to dose reduction was also examined. Results Considerable variability in the reinforcement threshold, compensation, and elasticity of demand was evident. High baseline nicotine intake was not correlated with the reinforcement threshold, but predicted less compensation and less elastic demand. Higher nicotine clearance predicted low reinforcement thresholds, greater compensation, and less elastic demand. Less elastic demand also predicted lower reinforcement thresholds. Conclusions These findings suggest that baseline nicotine intake, nicotine clearance, and the essential value of nicotine (i.e. elasticity of demand) moderate the effects of progressive nicotine reduction in rats and warrant further study in humans. They also suggest that smokers with fast nicotine metabolism may be more vulnerable to the risks of nicotine reduction. PMID:25891231

Epidemic spreading on dual-structure networks with mobile agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yao, Yiyang; Zhou, Yinzuo

2017-02-01

The rapid development of modern society continually transforms the social structure which leads to an increasingly distinct dual structure of higher population density in urban areas and lower density in rural areas. Such structure may induce distinctive spreading behavior of epidemics which does not happen in a single type structure. In this paper, we study the epidemic spreading of mobile agents on dual structure networks based on SIRS model. First, beyond the well known epidemic threshold for generic epidemic model that when the infection rate is below the threshold a pertinent infectious disease will die out, we find the other epidemic threshold which appears when the infection rate of a disease is relatively high. This feature of two thresholds for the SIRS model may lead to the elimination of infectious disease when social network has either high population density or low population density. Interestingly, however, we find that when a high density area is connected to a low density may cause persistent spreading of the infectious disease, even though the same disease will die out when it spreads in each single area. This phenomenon indicates the critical role of the connection between the two areas which could radically change the behavior of spreading dynamics. Our findings, therefore, provide new understanding of epidemiology pertinent to the characteristic modern social structure and have potential to develop controlling strategies accordingly.

Equilibrium analysis of a yellow Fever dynamical model with vaccination.

PubMed

Martorano Raimundo, Silvia; Amaku, Marcos; Massad, Eduardo

2015-01-01

We propose an equilibrium analysis of a dynamical model of yellow fever transmission in the presence of a vaccine. The model considers both human and vector populations. We found thresholds parameters that affect the development of the disease and the infectious status of the human population in the presence of a vaccine whose protection may wane over time. In particular, we derived a threshold vaccination rate, above which the disease would be eradicated from the human population. We show that if the mortality rate of the mosquitoes is greater than a given threshold, then the disease is naturally (without intervention) eradicated from the population. In contrast, if the mortality rate of the mosquitoes is less than that threshold, then the disease is eradicated from the populations only when the growing rate of humans is less than another threshold; otherwise, the disease is eradicated only if the reproduction number of the infection after vaccination is less than 1. When this reproduction number is greater than 1, the disease will be eradicated from the human population if the vaccination rate is greater than a given threshold; otherwise, the disease will establish itself among humans, reaching a stable endemic equilibrium. The analysis presented in this paper can be useful, both to the better understanding of the disease dynamics and also for the planning of vaccination strategies.

Reconstruction of Sensory Stimuli Encoded with Integrate-and-Fire Neurons with Random Thresholds

PubMed Central

Lazar, Aurel A.; Pnevmatikakis, Eftychios A.

2013-01-01

We present a general approach to the reconstruction of sensory stimuli encoded with leaky integrate-and-fire neurons with random thresholds. The stimuli are modeled as elements of a Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space. The reconstruction is based on finding a stimulus that minimizes a regularized quadratic optimality criterion. We discuss in detail the reconstruction of sensory stimuli modeled as absolutely continuous functions as well as stimuli with absolutely continuous first-order derivatives. Reconstruction results are presented for stimuli encoded with single as well as a population of neurons. Examples are given that demonstrate the performance of the reconstruction algorithms as a function of threshold variability. PMID:24077610

Do You See What I See? Exploring the Consequences of Luminosity Limits in Black Hole–Galaxy Evolution Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, Mackenzie L.; Hickox, Ryan C.; DiPompeo, Michael A.

In studies of the connection between active galactic nuclei (AGNs) and their host galaxies, there is widespread disagreement on some key aspects of the connection. These disagreements largely stem from a lack of understanding of the nature of the full underlying AGN population. Recent attempts to probe this connection utilize both observations and simulations to correct for a missed population, but presently are limited by intrinsic biases and complicated models. We take a simple simulation for galaxy evolution and add a new prescription for AGN activity to connect galaxy growth to dark matter halo properties and AGN activity to starmore » formation. We explicitly model selection effects to produce an “observed” AGN population for comparison with observations and empirically motivated models of the local universe. This allows us to bypass the difficulties inherent in models that attempt to infer the AGN population by inverting selection effects. We investigate the impact of selecting AGNs based on thresholds in luminosity or Eddington ratio on the “observed” AGN population. By limiting our model AGN sample in luminosity, we are able to recreate the observed local AGN luminosity function and specific star formation-stellar mass distribution, and show that using an Eddington ratio threshold introduces less bias into the sample by selecting the full range of growing black holes, despite the challenge of selecting low-mass black holes. We find that selecting AGNs using these various thresholds yield samples with different AGN host galaxy properties.« less

Genetic parameters of body weight and ascites in broilers: effect of different incidence rates of ascites syndrome.

PubMed

Ahmadpanah, J; Ghavi Hossein-Zadeh, N; Shadparvar, A A; Pakdel, A

2017-02-01

1. The objectives of the current study were to investigate the effect of incidence rate (5%, 10%, 20%, 30% and 50%) of ascites syndrome on the expression of genetic characteristics for body weight at 5 weeks of age (BW5) and AS and to compare different methods of genetic parameter estimation for these traits. 2. Based on stochastic simulation, a population with discrete generations was created in which random mating was used for 10 generations. Two methods of restricted maximum likelihood and Bayesian approach via Gibbs sampling were used for the estimation of genetic parameters. A bivariate model including maternal effects was used. The root mean square error for direct heritabilities was also calculated. 3. The results showed that when incidence rates of ascites increased from 5% to 30%, the heritability of AS increased from 0.013 and 0.005 to 0.110 and 0.162 for linear and threshold models, respectively. 4. Maternal effects were significant for both BW5 and AS. Genetic correlations were decreased by increasing incidence rates of ascites in the population from 0.678 and 0.587 at 5% level of ascites to 0.393 and -0.260 at 50% occurrence for linear and threshold models, respectively. 5. The RMSE of direct heritability from true values for BW5 was greater based on a linear-threshold model compared with the linear model of analysis (0.0092 vs. 0.0015). The RMSE of direct heritability from true values for AS was greater based on a linear-linear model (1.21 vs. 1.14). 6. In order to rank birds for ascites incidence, it is recommended to use a threshold model because it resulted in higher heritability estimates compared with the linear model and that BW5 could be one of the main components of selection goals.

The benefits and tradeoffs for varied high-severity injury risk thresholds for advanced automatic crash notification systems.

PubMed

Bahouth, George; Graygo, Jill; Digges, Kennerly; Schulman, Carl; Baur, Peter

2014-01-01

The objectives of this study are to (1) characterize the population of crashes meeting the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-recommended 20% risk of Injury Severity Score (ISS)>15 injury and (2) explore the positive and negative effects of an advanced automatic crash notification (AACN) system whose threshold for high-risk indications is 10% versus 20%. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to predict the occurrence of motor vehicle crash injuries at both the ISS>15 and Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) 3+ level. Models were trained using crash characteristics recommended by the CDC Committee on Advanced Automatic Collision Notification and Triage of the Injured Patient. Each model was used to assign the probability of severe injury (defined as MAIS 3+ or ISS>15 injury) to a subset of NASS-CDS cases based on crash attributes. Subsequently, actual AIS and ISS levels were compared with the predicted probability of injury to determine the extent to which the seriously injured had corresponding probabilities exceeding the 10% and 20% risk thresholds. Models were developed using an 80% sample of NASS-CDS data from 2002 to 2012 and evaluations were performed using the remaining 20% of cases from the same period. Within the population of seriously injured (i.e., those having one or more AIS 3 or higher injuries), the number of occupants whose injury risk did not exceed the 10% and 20% thresholds were estimated to be 11,700 and 18,600, respectively, each year using the MAIS 3+ injury model. For the ISS>15 model, 8,100 and 11,000 occupants sustained ISS>15 injuries yet their injury probability did not reach the 10% and 20% probability for severe injury respectively. Conversely, model predictions suggested that, at the 10% and 20% thresholds, 207,700 and 55,400 drivers respectively would be incorrectly flagged as injured when their injuries had not reached the AIS 3 level. For the ISS>15 model, 87,300 and 41,900 drivers would be incorrectly flagged as injured when injury severity had not reached the ISS>15 injury level. This article provides important information comparing the expected positive and negative effects of an AACN system with thresholds at the 10% and 20% levels using 2 outcome metrics. Overall, results suggest that the 20% risk threshold would not provide a useful notification to improve the quality of care for a large number of seriously injured crash victims. Alternately, a lower threshold may increase the over triage rate. Based on the vehicle damage observed for crashes reaching and exceeding the 10% risk threshold, we anticipate that rescue services would have been deployed based on current Public Safety Answering Point (PSAP) practices.

The impact of roads on the demography of grizzly bears in Alberta.

PubMed

Boulanger, John; Stenhouse, Gordon B

2014-01-01

One of the principal factors that have reduced grizzly bear populations has been the creation of human access into grizzly bear habitat by roads built for resource extraction. Past studies have documented mortality and distributional changes of bears relative to roads but none have attempted to estimate the direct demographic impact of roads in terms of both survival rates, reproductive rates, and the interaction of reproductive state of female bears with survival rate. We applied a combination of survival and reproductive models to estimate demographic parameters for threatened grizzly bear populations in Alberta. Instead of attempting to estimate mean trend we explored factors which caused biological and spatial variation in population trend. We found that sex and age class survival was related to road density with subadult bears being most vulnerable to road-based mortality. A multi-state reproduction model found that females accompanied by cubs of the year and/or yearling cubs had lower survival rates compared to females with two year olds or no cubs. A demographic model found strong spatial gradients in population trend based upon road density. Threshold road densities needed to ensure population stability were estimated to further refine targets for population recovery of grizzly bears in Alberta. Models that considered lowered survival of females with dependant offspring resulted in lower road density thresholds to ensure stable bear populations. Our results demonstrate likely spatial variation in population trend and provide an example how demographic analysis can be used to refine and direct conservation measures for threatened species.

The Impact of Roads on the Demography of Grizzly Bears in Alberta

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

One of the principal factors that have reduced grizzly bear populations has been the creation of human access into grizzly bear habitat by roads built for resource extraction. Past studies have documented mortality and distributional changes of bears relative to roads but none have attempted to estimate the direct demographic impact of roads in terms of both survival rates, reproductive rates, and the interaction of reproductive state of female bears with survival rate. We applied a combination of survival and reproductive models to estimate demographic parameters for threatened grizzly bear populations in Alberta. Instead of attempting to estimate mean trend we explored factors which caused biological and spatial variation in population trend. We found that sex and age class survival was related to road density with subadult bears being most vulnerable to road-based mortality. A multi-state reproduction model found that females accompanied by cubs of the year and/or yearling cubs had lower survival rates compared to females with two year olds or no cubs. A demographic model found strong spatial gradients in population trend based upon road density. Threshold road densities needed to ensure population stability were estimated to further refine targets for population recovery of grizzly bears in Alberta. Models that considered lowered survival of females with dependant offspring resulted in lower road density thresholds to ensure stable bear populations. Our results demonstrate likely spatial variation in population trend and provide an example how demographic analysis can be used to refine and direct conservation measures for threatened species. PMID:25532035

Resonances and thresholds in the Rydberg-level population of multiply charged ions at solid surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nedeljković, Lj. D.; Nedeljković, N. N.

1998-12-01

We present a theoretical study of resonances and thresholds, two specific features of Rydberg-state formation of multiply charged ions (Z=6, 7, and 8) escaping a solid surface at intermediate velocities (v~1 a.u.) in the normal emergence geometry. The resonances are recognized in pronounced maxima of the experimentally observed population curves of Ar VIII ions for resonant values of the principal quantum number n=nres=11 and for the angular momentum quantum numbers l=1 and 2. Absence of optical signals in detectors of beam-foil experiments for n>nthr of S VI and Cl VII ions (with l=0, 1, and 2) and Ar VIII for l=0 is interpreted as a threshold phenomenon. An interplay between resonance and threshold effects is established within the framework of quantum dynamics of the low angular momentum Rydberg-state formation, based on a generalization of Demkov-Ostrovskii's charge-exchange model. In the model proposed, the Ar VIII resonances appear as a consequence of electron tunneling in the very vicinity of the ion-surface potential barrier top and at some critical ion-surface distances Rc. The observed thresholds are explained by means of a decay mechanism of ionic Rydberg states formed dominantly above the Fermi level EF of a solid conduction band. The theoretically predicted resonant and threshold values, nres and nthr of the principal quantum number n, as well as the obtained population probabilities Pnl=Pnl(v,Z), are in sufficiently good agreement with all available experimental findings.

Beverton-Holt discrete pest management models with pulsed chemical control and evolution of pesticide resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Juhua; Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A.

2016-07-01

Pest resistance to pesticides is usually managed by switching between different types of pesticides. The optimal switching time, which depends on the dynamics of the pest population and on the evolution of the pesticide resistance, is critical. Here we address how the dynamic complexity of the pest population, the development of resistance and the spraying frequency of pulsed chemical control affect optimal switching strategies given different control aims. To do this, we developed novel discrete pest population growth models with both impulsive chemical control and the evolution of pesticide resistance. Strong and weak threshold conditions which guarantee the extinction of the pest population, based on the threshold values of the analytical formula for the optimal switching time, were derived. Further, we addressed switching strategies in the light of chosen economic injury levels. Moreover, the effects of the complex dynamical behaviour of the pest population on the pesticide switching times were also studied. The pesticide application period, the evolution of pesticide resistance and the dynamic complexity of the pest population may result in complex outbreak patterns, with consequent effects on the pesticide switching strategies.

The threshold of a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fengrong; Zhang, Xinhong

2018-02-01

In this paper, a stochastic avian-human influenza epidemic model with psychological effect in human population and saturation effect within avian population is investigated. This model describes the transmission of avian influenza among avian population and human population in random environments. For stochastic avian-only system, persistence in the mean and extinction of the infected avian population are studied. For the avian-human influenza epidemic system, sufficient conditions for the existence of an ergodic stationary distribution are obtained. Furthermore, a threshold of this stochastic model which determines the outcome of the disease is obtained. Finally, numerical simulations are given to support the theoretical results.

Hydrothermal time models for conidial germination and mycelial growth of the seed pathogen Pyrenophora semeniperda

Treesearch

Connor W. Barth; Susan E. Meyer; Julie Beckstead; Phil S. Allen

2015-01-01

Population-based threshold models using hydrothermal time (HTT) have been widely used to model seed germination. We used HTT to model conidial germination and mycelial growth for the seed pathogen Pyrenophora semeniperda in a novel approach to understanding its interactions with host seeds. Germination time courses and mycelial growth rates for P.semeniperda were...

Patterns of threshold evolution in polyphenic insects under different developmental models.

PubMed

Tomkins, Joseph L; Moczek, Armin P

2009-02-01

Two hypotheses address the evolution of polyphenic traits in insects. Under the developmental reprogramming model, individuals exceeding a threshold follow a different developmental pathway from individuals below the threshold. This decoupling is thought to free selection to independently hone alternative morphologies, increasing phenotypic plasticity and morphological diversity. Under the alternative model, extreme positive allometry explains the existence of alternative phenotypes and divergent phenotypes are developmentally coupled by a continuous reaction norm, such that selection on either morph acts on both. We test the hypothesis that continuous reaction norm polyphenisms, evolve through changes in the allometric parameters of even the smallest males with minimal trait expression, whereas threshold polyphenisms evolve independent of the allometric parameters of individuals below the threshold. We compare two polyphenic species; the dung beetle Onthophagus taurus, whose allometry has been modeled both as a threshold polyphenism and a continuous reaction norm and the earwig Forficula auricularia, whose allometry is best modeled with a discontinuous threshold. We find that across populations of both species, variation in forceps or horn allometry in minor males are correlated to the population's threshold. These findings suggest that regardless of developmental mode, alternative morphs do not evolve independently of one another.

Species extinction thresholds in the face of spatially correlated periodic disturbance.

PubMed

Liao, Jinbao; Ying, Zhixia; Hiebeler, David E; Wang, Yeqiao; Takada, Takenori; Nijs, Ivan

2015-10-20

The spatial correlation of disturbance is gaining attention in landscape ecology, but knowledge is still lacking on how species traits determine extinction thresholds under spatially correlated disturbance regimes. Here we develop a pair approximation model to explore species extinction risk in a lattice-structured landscape subject to aggregated periodic disturbance. Increasing disturbance extent and frequency accelerated population extinction irrespective of whether dispersal was local or global. Spatial correlation of disturbance likewise increased species extinction risk, but only for local dispersers. This indicates that models based on randomly simulated disturbances (e.g., mean-field or non-spatial models) may underestimate real extinction rates. Compared to local dispersal, species with global dispersal tolerated more severe disturbance, suggesting that the spatial correlation of disturbance favors long-range dispersal from an evolutionary perspective. Following disturbance, intraspecific competition greatly enhanced the extinction risk of distance-limited dispersers, while it surprisingly did not influence the extinction thresholds of global dispersers, apart from decreasing population density to some degree. As species respond differently to disturbance regimes with different spatiotemporal properties, different regimes may accommodate different species.

High prices for rare species can drive large populations extinct: the anthropogenic Allee effect revisited.

PubMed

Holden, Matthew H; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2017-09-21

Consumer demand for plant and animal products threatens many populations with extinction. The anthropogenic Allee effect (AAE) proposes that such extinctions can be caused by prices for wildlife products increasing with species rarity. This price-rarity relationship creates financial incentives to extract the last remaining individuals of a population, despite higher search and harvest costs. The AAE has become a standard approach for conceptualizing the threat of economic markets on endangered species. Despite its potential importance for conservation, AAE theory is based on a simple graphical model with limited analysis of possible population trajectories. By specifying a general class of functions for price-rarity relationships, we show that the classic theory can understate the risk of species extinction. AAE theory proposes that only populations below a critical Allee threshold will go extinct due to increasing price-rarity relationships. Our analysis shows that this threshold can be much higher than the original theory suggests, depending on initial harvest effort. More alarmingly, even species with population sizes above this Allee threshold, for which AAE predicts persistence, can be destined to extinction. Introducing even a minimum price for harvested individuals, close to zero, can cause large populations to cross the classic anthropogenic Allee threshold on a trajectory towards extinction. These results suggest that traditional AAE theory may give a false sense of security when managing large harvested populations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparing population and incident data for optimal air ambulance base locations in Norway.

PubMed

Røislien, Jo; van den Berg, Pieter L; Lindner, Thomas; Zakariassen, Erik; Uleberg, Oddvar; Aardal, Karen; van Essen, J Theresia

2018-05-24

Helicopter emergency medical services are important in many health care systems. Norway has a nationwide physician manned air ambulance service servicing a country with large geographical variations in population density and incident frequencies. The aim of the study was to compare optimal air ambulance base locations using both population and incident data. We used municipality population and incident data for Norway from 2015. The 428 municipalities had a median (5-95 percentile) of 4675 (940-36,264) inhabitants and 10 (2-38) incidents. Optimal helicopter base locations were estimated using the Maximal Covering Location Problem (MCLP) optimization model, exploring the number and location of bases needed to cover various fractions of the population for time thresholds 30 and 45 min, in green field scenarios and conditioned on the existing base structure. The existing bases covered 96.90% of the population and 91.86% of the incidents for time threshold 45 min. Correlation between municipality population and incident frequencies was -0.0027, and optimal base locations varied markedly between the two data types, particularly when lowering the target time. The optimal solution using population density data put focus on the greater Oslo area, where one third of Norwegians live, while using incident data put focus on low population high incident areas, such as northern Norway and winter sport resorts. Using population density data as a proxy for incident frequency is not recommended, as the two data types lead to different optimal base locations. Lowering the target time increases the sensitivity to choice of data.

A Gompertz population model with Allee effect and fuzzy initial values

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amarti, Zenia; Nurkholipah, Nenden Siti; Anggriani, Nursanti; Supriatna, Asep K.

2018-03-01

Growth and population dynamics models are important tools used in preparing a good management for society to predict the future of population or species. This has been done by various known methods, one among them is by developing a mathematical model that describes population growth. Models are usually formed into differential equations or systems of differential equations, depending on the complexity of the underlying properties of the population. One example of biological complexity is Allee effect. It is a phenomenon showing a high correlation between very small population size and the mean individual fitness of the population. In this paper the population growth model used is the Gompertz equation model by considering the Allee effect on the population. We explore the properties of the solution to the model numerically using the Runge-Kutta method. Further exploration is done via fuzzy theoretical approach to accommodate uncertainty of the initial values of the model. It is known that an initial value greater than the Allee threshold will cause the solution rises towards carrying capacity asymptotically. However, an initial value smaller than the Allee threshold will cause the solution decreases towards zero asymptotically, which means the population is eventually extinct. Numerical solutions show that modeling uncertain initial value of the critical point A (the Allee threshold) with a crisp initial value could cause the extinction of population of a certain possibilistic degree, depending on the predetermined membership function of the initial value.

Assessment and Mmanagement of North American horseshoe crab populations, with emphasis on a multispecies framework for Delaware Bay, U.S.A. populations: Chapter 24

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millard, Michael J.; Sweka, John A.; McGowan, Conor P.; Smith, David R.

2015-01-01

The horseshoe crab fishery on the US Atlantic coast represents a compelling fishery management story for many reasons, including ecological complexity, health and human safety ramifications, and socio-economic conflicts. Knowledge of stock status and assessment and monitoring capabilities for the species have increased greatly in the last 15 years and permitted managers to make more informed harvest recommendations. Incorporating the bioenergetics needs of migratory shorebirds, which feed on horseshoe crab eggs, into the management framework for horseshoe crabs was identified as a goal, particularly in the Delaware Bay region where the birds and horseshoe crabs exhibit an important ecological interaction. In response, significant effort was invested in studying the population dynamics, migration ecology, and the ecologic relationship of a key migratory shorebird, the Red Knot, to horseshoe crabs. A suite of models was developed that linked Red Knot populations to horseshoe crab populations through a mass gain function where female spawning crab abundance determined what proportion of the migrating Red Knot population reached a critical body mass threshold. These models were incorporated in an adaptive management framework wherein optimal harvest decisions for horseshoe crab are recommended based on several resource-based and value-based variables and thresholds. The current adaptive framework represents a true multispecies management effort where additional data over time are employed to improve the predictive models and reduce parametric uncertainty. The possibility of increasing phenologic asynchrony between the two taxa in response to climate change presents a potential challenge to their ecologic interaction in Delaware Bay.

An avoidance behavior model for migrating whale populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buck, John R.; Tyack, Peter L.

2003-04-01

A new model is presented for the avoidance behavior of migrating marine mammals in the presence of a noise stimulus. This model assumes that each whale will adjust its movement pattern near a sound source to maintain its exposure below its own individually specific maximum received sound-pressure level, called its avoidance threshold. The probability distribution function (PDF) of this avoidance threshold across individuals characterizes the migrating population. The avoidance threshold PDF may be estimated by comparing the distribution of migrating whales during playback and control conditions at their closest point of approach to the sound source. The proposed model was applied to the January 1998 experiment which placed a single acoustic source from the U.S. Navy SURTASS-LFA system in the migration corridor of grey whales off the California coast. This analysis found that the median avoidance threshold for this migrating grey whale population was 135 dB, with 90% confidence that the median threshold was within +/-3 dB of this value. This value is less than the 141 dB value for 50% avoidance obtained when the 1984 ``Probability of Avoidance'' model of Malme et al.'s was applied to the same data. [Work supported by ONR.

Gain competition in dual wavelength quantum cascade lasers.

PubMed

Geiser, Markus; Pflügl, Christian; Belyanin, Alexey; Wang, Qi Jie; Yu, Nanfang; Edamura, Tadanaka; Yamanishi, Masamichi; Kan, Hirofumi; Fischer, Milan; Wittmann, Andreas; Faist, Jérôme; Capasso, Federico

2010-05-10

We investigated dual wavelength mid-infrared quantum cascade lasers based on heterogeneous cascades. We found that due to gain competition laser action tends to start in higher order lateral modes. The mid-infrared mode with the lower threshold current reduces population inversion for the second laser with the higher threshold current due to stimulated emission. We developed a rate equation model to quantitatively describe mode interactions due to mutual gain depletion. (c) 2010 Optical Society of America.

Threshold Evaluation of Emergency Risk Communication for Health Risks Related to Hazardous Ambient Temperature.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Hoppe, Brenda O; Convertino, Matteo

2018-04-10

Emergency risk communication (ERC) programs that activate when the ambient temperature is expected to cross certain extreme thresholds are widely used to manage relevant public health risks. In practice, however, the effectiveness of these thresholds has rarely been examined. The goal of this study is to test if the activation criteria based on extreme temperature thresholds, both cold and heat, capture elevated health risks for all-cause and cause-specific mortality and morbidity in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area. A distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) combined with a quasi-Poisson generalized linear model is used to derive the exposure-response functions between daily maximum heat index and mortality (1998-2014) and morbidity (emergency department visits; 2007-2014). Specific causes considered include cardiovascular, respiratory, renal diseases, and diabetes. Six extreme temperature thresholds, corresponding to 1st-3rd and 97th-99th percentiles of local exposure history, are examined. All six extreme temperature thresholds capture significantly increased relative risks for all-cause mortality and morbidity. However, the cause-specific analyses reveal heterogeneity. Extreme cold thresholds capture increased mortality and morbidity risks for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases and extreme heat thresholds for renal disease. Percentile-based extreme temperature thresholds are appropriate for initiating ERC targeting the general population. Tailoring ERC by specific causes may protect some but not all individuals with health conditions exacerbated by hazardous ambient temperature exposure. © 2018 Society for Risk Analysis.

Enhancement of epidemic spread by noise and stochastic resonance in spatial network models with viral dynamics.

PubMed

Tuckwell, H C; Toubiana, L; Vibert, J F

2000-05-01

We extend a previous dynamical viral network model to include stochastic effects. The dynamical equations for the viral and immune effector densities within a host population of size n are bilinear, and the noise is white, additive, and Gaussian. The individuals are connected with an n x n transmission matrix, with terms which decay exponentially with distance. In a single individual, for the range of noise parameters considered, it is found that increasing the amplitude of the noise tends to decrease the maximum mean virion level, and slightly accelerate its attainment. Two different spatial dynamical models are employed to ascertain the effects of environmental stochasticity on viral spread. In the first model transmission is unrestricted and there is no threshold within individuals. This model has the advantage that it can be analyzed using a Fokker-Planck approach. The noise is found both to synchronize and uniformize the trajectories of the viral levels across the population of infected individuals, and thus to promote the epidemic spread of the virus. Quantitative measures of the speed of spread and overall amplitude of the epidemic are obtained as functions of the noise and virulence parameters. The mean amplitude increases steadily without threshold effects for a fixed value of the virulence as the noise amplitude sigma is increased, and there is no evidence of a stochastic resonance. However, the speed of transmission, both with respect to its mean and variance, undergoes rapid increases as sigma changes by relatively small amounts. In the second, more realistic, model, there is a threshold for infection and an upper limit to the transmission rate. There may be no spread of infection at all in the absence of noise. With increasing noise level and a low threshold, the mean maximum virion level grows quickly and shows a broad-based stochastic resonance effect. When the threshold within individuals is increased, the mean population virion level increases only slowly as sigma increases, until a critical value is reached at which the mean infection level suddenly increases. Similar results are obtained when the parameters of the model are also randomized across the population. We conclude with a discussion and a description of a diffusion approximation for a model in which stochasticity arises through random contacts rather than fluctuation in ambient virion levels.

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations.

PubMed

Hardstaff, Joanne L; Bulling, Mark T; Marion, Glenn; Hutchings, Michael R; White, Piran C L

2012-06-27

The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6-8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection.

Impact of external sources of infection on the dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in modelled badger populations

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The persistence of bovine TB (bTB) in various countries throughout the world is enhanced by the existence of wildlife hosts for the infection. In Britain and Ireland, the principal wildlife host for bTB is the badger (Meles meles). The objective of our study was to examine the dynamics of bTB in badgers in relation to both badger-derived infection from within the population and externally-derived, trickle-type, infection, such as could occur from other species or environmental sources, using a spatial stochastic simulation model. Results The presence of external sources of infection can increase mean prevalence and reduce the threshold group size for disease persistence. Above the threshold equilibrium group size of 6–8 individuals predicted by the model for bTB persistence in badgers based on internal infection alone, external sources of infection have relatively little impact on the persistence or level of disease. However, within a critical range of group sizes just below this threshold level, external infection becomes much more important in determining disease dynamics. Within this critical range, external infection increases the ratio of intra- to inter-group infections due to the greater probability of external infections entering fully-susceptible groups. The effect is to enable bTB persistence and increase bTB prevalence in badger populations which would not be able to maintain bTB based on internal infection alone. Conclusions External sources of bTB infection can contribute to the persistence of bTB in badger populations. In high-density badger populations, internal badger-derived infections occur at a sufficient rate that the additional effect of external sources in exacerbating disease is minimal. However, in lower-density populations, external sources of infection are much more important in enhancing bTB prevalence and persistence. In such circumstances, it is particularly important that control strategies to reduce bTB in badgers include efforts to minimise such external sources of infection. PMID:22738118

Incorporating uncertainty of management costs in sensitivity analyses of matrix population models.

PubMed

Salomon, Yacov; McCarthy, Michael A; Taylor, Peter; Wintle, Brendan A

2013-02-01

The importance of accounting for economic costs when making environmental-management decisions subject to resource constraints has been increasingly recognized in recent years. In contrast, uncertainty associated with such costs has often been ignored. We developed a method, on the basis of economic theory, that accounts for the uncertainty in population-management decisions. We considered the case where, rather than taking fixed values, model parameters are random variables that represent the situation when parameters are not precisely known. Hence, the outcome is not precisely known either. Instead of maximizing the expected outcome, we maximized the probability of obtaining an outcome above a threshold of acceptability. We derived explicit analytical expressions for the optimal allocation and its associated probability, as a function of the threshold of acceptability, where the model parameters were distributed according to normal and uniform distributions. To illustrate our approach we revisited a previous study that incorporated cost-efficiency analyses in management decisions that were based on perturbation analyses of matrix population models. Incorporating derivations from this study into our framework, we extended the model to address potential uncertainties. We then applied these results to 2 case studies: management of a Koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population and conservation of an olive ridley sea turtle (Lepidochelys olivacea) population. For low aspirations, that is, when the threshold of acceptability is relatively low, the optimal strategy was obtained by diversifying the allocation of funds. Conversely, for high aspirations, the budget was directed toward management actions with the highest potential effect on the population. The exact optimal allocation was sensitive to the choice of uncertainty model. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for uncertainty when making decisions and suggest that more effort should be placed on understanding the distributional characteristics of such uncertainty. Our approach provides a tool to improve decision making. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Population pharmacokinetic characterization of BAY 81-8973, a full-length recombinant factor VIII: lessons learned - importance of including samples with factor VIII levels below the quantitation limit.

PubMed

Garmann, D; McLeay, S; Shah, A; Vis, P; Maas Enriquez, M; Ploeger, B A

2017-07-01

The pharmacokinetics (PK), safety and efficacy of BAY 81-8973, a full-length, unmodified, recombinant human factor VIII (FVIII), were evaluated in the LEOPOLD trials. The aim of this study was to develop a population PK model based on pooled data from the LEOPOLD trials and to investigate the importance of including samples with FVIII levels below the limit of quantitation (BLQ) to estimate half-life. The analysis included 1535 PK observations (measured by the chromogenic assay) from 183 male patients with haemophilia A aged 1-61 years from the 3 LEOPOLD trials. The limit of quantitation was 1.5 IU dL -1 for the majority of samples. Population PK models that included or excluded BLQ samples were used for FVIII half-life estimations, and simulations were performed using both estimates to explore the influence on the time below a determined FVIII threshold. In the data set used, approximately 16.5% of samples were BLQ, which is not uncommon for FVIII PK data sets. The structural model to describe the PK of BAY 81-8973 was a two-compartment model similar to that seen for other FVIII products. If BLQ samples were excluded from the model, FVIII half-life estimations were longer compared with a model that included BLQ samples. It is essential to assess the importance of BLQ samples when performing population PK estimates of half-life for any FVIII product. Exclusion of BLQ data from half-life estimations based on population PK models may result in an overestimation of half-life and underestimation of time under a predetermined FVIII threshold, resulting in potential underdosing of patients. © 2017 Bayer AG. Haemophilia Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A cascade of destabilizations: Combining Wolbachia and Allee effects to eradicate insect pests.

PubMed

Blackwood, Julie C; Vargas, Roger; Fauvergue, Xavier

2018-01-01

The management of insect pests has long been dominated by the use of chemical insecticides, with the aim of instantaneously killing enough individuals to limit their damage. To minimize unwanted consequences, environmentally friendly approaches have been proposed that utilize biological control and take advantage of intrinsic demographic processes to reduce pest populations. We address the feasibility of a novel pest management strategy based on the release of insects infected with Wolbachia, which causes cytoplasmic incompatibilities in its host population, into a population with a pre-existing Allee effect. We hypothesize that the transient decline in population size caused by a successful invasion of Wolbachia can bring the population below its Allee threshold and, consequently, trigger extinction. We develop a stochastic population model that accounts for Wolbachia-induced cytoplasmic incompatibilities in addition to an Allee effect arising from mating failures at low population densities. Using our model, we identify conditions under which cytoplasmic incompatibilities and Allee effects successfully interact to drive insect pest populations towards extinction. Based on our results, we delineate control strategies based on introductions of Wolbachia-infected insects. We extend this analysis to evaluate control strategies that implement successive introductions of two incompatible Wolbachia strains. Additionally, we consider methods that combine Wolbachia invasion with mating disruption tactics to enhance the pre-existing Allee effect. We demonstrate that Wolbachia-induced cytoplasmic incompatibility and the Allee effect act independently from one another: the Allee effect does not modify the Wolbachia invasion threshold, and cytoplasmic incompatibilities only have a marginal effect on the Allee threshold. However, the interaction of these two processes can drive even large populations to extinction. The success of this method can be amplified by the introduction of multiple Wolbachia cytotypes as well as the addition of mating disruption. Our study extends the existing literature by proposing the use of Wolbachia introductions to capitalize on pre-existing Allee effects and consequently eradicate insect pests. More generally, it highlights the importance of transient dynamics, and the relevance of manipulating a cascade of destabilizatons for pest management. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Experimental evidence of a pathogen invasion threshold

PubMed Central

Krkošek, Martin

2018-01-01

Host density thresholds to pathogen invasion separate regions of parameter space corresponding to endemic and disease-free states. The host density threshold is a central concept in theoretical epidemiology and a common target of human and wildlife disease control programmes, but there is mixed evidence supporting the existence of thresholds, especially in wildlife populations or for pathogens with complex transmission modes (e.g. environmental transmission). Here, we demonstrate the existence of a host density threshold for an environmentally transmitted pathogen by combining an epidemiological model with a microcosm experiment. Experimental epidemics consisted of replicate populations of naive crustacean zooplankton (Daphnia dentifera) hosts across a range of host densities (20–640 hosts l−1) that were exposed to an environmentally transmitted fungal pathogen (Metschnikowia bicuspidata). Epidemiological model simulations, parametrized independently of the experiment, qualitatively predicted experimental pathogen invasion thresholds. Variability in parameter estimates did not strongly influence outcomes, though systematic changes to key parameters have the potential to shift pathogen invasion thresholds. In summary, we provide one of the first clear experimental demonstrations of pathogen invasion thresholds in a replicated experimental system, and provide evidence that such thresholds may be predictable using independently constructed epidemiological models. PMID:29410876

Mathematical analysis of epidemiological models with heterogeneity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Van Ark, J.W.

1992-01-01

For many diseases in human populations the disease shows dissimilar characteristics in separate subgroups of the population; for example, the probability of disease transmission for gonorrhea or AIDS is much higher from male to female than from female to male. There is reason to construct and analyze epidemiological models which allow this heterogeneity of population, and to use these models to run computer simulations of the disease to predict the incidence and prevalence of the disease. In the models considered here the heterogeneous population is separated into subpopulations whose internal and external interactions are homogeneous in the sense that eachmore » person in the population can be assumed to have all average actions for the people of that subpopulation. The first model considered is an SIRS models; i.e., the Susceptible can become Infected, and if so he eventually Recovers with temporary immunity, and after a period of time becomes Susceptible again. Special cases allow for permanent immunity or other variations. This model is analyzed and threshold conditions are given which determine whether the disease dies out or persists. A deterministic model is presented; this model is constructed using difference equations, and it has been used in computer simulations for the AIDS epidemic in the homosexual population in San Francisco. The homogeneous version and the heterogeneous version of the differential-equations and difference-equations versions of the deterministic model are analyzed mathematically. In the analysis, equilibria are identified and threshold conditions are set forth for the disease to die out if the disease is below the threshold so that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. Above the threshold the disease persists so that the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and there is a unique endemic equilibrium.« less

From innervation density to tactile acuity: 1. Spatial representation.

PubMed

Brown, Paul B; Koerber, H Richard; Millecchia, Ronald

2004-06-11

We tested the hypothesis that the population receptive field representation (a superposition of the excitatory receptive field areas of cells responding to a tactile stimulus) provides spatial information sufficient to mediate one measure of static tactile acuity. In psychophysical tests, two-point discrimination thresholds on the hindlimbs of adult cats varied as a function of stimulus location and orientation, as they do in humans. A statistical model of the excitatory low threshold mechanoreceptive fields of spinocervical, postsynaptic dorsal column and spinothalamic tract neurons was used to simulate the population receptive field representations in this neural population of the one- and two-point stimuli used in the psychophysical experiments. The simulated and observed thresholds were highly correlated. Simulated and observed thresholds' relations to physiological and anatomical variables such as stimulus location and orientation, receptive field size and shape, map scale, and innervation density were strikingly similar. Simulated and observed threshold variations with receptive field size and map scale obeyed simple relationships predicted by the signal detection model, and were statistically indistinguishable from each other. The population receptive field representation therefore contains information sufficient for this discrimination.

Modeled summer background concentration nutrients and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We used regression models to predict background concentration of four water quality indictors: total nitrogen (N), total phosphorus (P), chloride, and total suspended solids (TSS), in the mid-continent (USA) great rivers, the Upper Mississippi, the Lower Missouri, and the Ohio. From best-model linear regressions of water quality indicators with land use and other stressor variables, we determined the concentration of the indicators when the land use and stressor variables were all set to zero the y-intercept. Except for total P on the Upper Mississippi River and chloride on the Ohio River, we were able to predict background concentration from significant regression models. In every model with more than one predictor variable, the model included at least one variable representing agricultural land use and one variable representing development. Predicted background concentration of total N was the same on the Upper Mississippi and Lower Missouri rivers (350 ug l-1), which was much lower than a published eutrophication threshold and percentile-based thresholds (25th percentile of concentration at all sites in the population) but was similar to a threshold derived from the response of sestonic chlorophyll a to great river total N concentration. Background concentration of total P on the Lower Missouri (53 ug l-1) was also lower than published and percentile-based thresholds. Background TSS concentration was higher on the Lower Missouri (30 mg l-1) than the other ri

High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise.

PubMed

Field, Christopher R; Bayard, Trina S; Gjerdrum, Carina; Hill, Jason M; Meiman, Susan; Elphick, Chris S

2017-05-01

Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Evolution of complex density-dependent dispersal strategies.

PubMed

Parvinen, Kalle; Seppänen, Anne; Nagy, John D

2012-11-01

The question of how dispersal behavior is adaptive and how it responds to changes in selection pressure is more relevant than ever, as anthropogenic habitat alteration and climate change accelerate around the world. In metapopulation models where local populations are large, and thus local population size is measured in densities, density-dependent dispersal is expected to evolve to a single-threshold strategy, in which individuals stay in patches with local population density smaller than a threshold value and move immediately away from patches with local population density larger than the threshold. Fragmentation tends to convert continuous populations into metapopulations and also to decrease local population sizes. Therefore we analyze a metapopulation model, where each patch can support only a relatively small local population and thus experience demographic stochasticity. We investigated the evolution of density-dependent dispersal, emigration and immigration, in two scenarios: adult and natal dispersal. We show that density-dependent emigration can also evolve to a nonmonotone, "triple-threshold" strategy. This interesting phenomenon results from an interplay between the direct and indirect benefits of dispersal and the costs of dispersal. We also found that, compared to juveniles, dispersing adults may benefit more from density-dependent vs. density-independent dispersal strategies.

Between-airport heterogeneity in air toxics emissions associated with individual cancer risk thresholds and population risks

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Airports represent a complex source type of increasing importance contributing to air toxics risks. Comprehensive atmospheric dispersion models are beyond the scope of many applications, so it would be valuable to rapidly but accurately characterize the risk-relevant exposure implications of emissions at an airport. Methods In this study, we apply a high resolution atmospheric dispersion model (AERMOD) to 32 airports across the United States, focusing on benzene, 1,3-butadiene, and benzo [a]pyrene. We estimate the emission rates required at these airports to exceed a 10-6 lifetime cancer risk for the maximally exposed individual (emission thresholds) and estimate the total population risk at these emission rates. Results The emission thresholds vary by two orders of magnitude across airports, with variability predicted by proximity of populations to the airport and mixing height (R2 = 0.74–0.75 across pollutants). At these emission thresholds, the population risk within 50 km of the airport varies by two orders of magnitude across airports, driven by substantial heterogeneity in total population exposure per unit emissions that is related to population density and uncorrelated with emission thresholds. Conclusion Our findings indicate that site characteristics can be used to accurately predict maximum individual risk and total population risk at a given level of emissions, but that optimizing on one endpoint will be non-optimal for the other. PMID:19426510

Expansion or extinction: deterministic and stochastic two-patch models with Allee effects.

PubMed

Kang, Yun; Lanchier, Nicolas

2011-06-01

We investigate the impact of Allee effect and dispersal on the long-term evolution of a population in a patchy environment. Our main focus is on whether a population already established in one patch either successfully invades an adjacent empty patch or undergoes a global extinction. Our study is based on the combination of analytical and numerical results for both a deterministic two-patch model and a stochastic counterpart. The deterministic model has either two, three or four attractors. The existence of a regime with exactly three attractors only appears when patches have distinct Allee thresholds. In the presence of weak dispersal, the analysis of the deterministic model shows that a high-density and a low-density populations can coexist at equilibrium in nearby patches, whereas the analysis of the stochastic model indicates that this equilibrium is metastable, thus leading after a large random time to either a global expansion or a global extinction. Up to some critical dispersal, increasing the intensity of the interactions leads to an increase of both the basin of attraction of the global extinction and the basin of attraction of the global expansion. Above this threshold, for both the deterministic and the stochastic models, the patches tend to synchronize as the intensity of the dispersal increases. This results in either a global expansion or a global extinction. For the deterministic model, there are only two attractors, while the stochastic model no longer exhibits a metastable behavior. In the presence of strong dispersal, the limiting behavior is entirely determined by the value of the Allee thresholds as the global population size in the deterministic and the stochastic models evolves as dictated by their single-patch counterparts. For all values of the dispersal parameter, Allee effects promote global extinction in terms of an expansion of the basin of attraction of the extinction equilibrium for the deterministic model and an increase of the probability of extinction for the stochastic model.

Allee effect in the selection for prime-numbered cycles in periodical cicadas.

PubMed

Tanaka, Yumi; Yoshimura, Jin; Simon, Chris; Cooley, John R; Tainaka, Kei-ichi

2009-06-02

Periodical cicadas are well known for their prime-numbered life cycles (17 and 13 years) and their mass periodical emergences. The origination and persistence of prime-numbered cycles are explained by the hybridization hypothesis on the basis of their lower likelihood of hybridization with other cycles. Recently, we showed by using an integer-based numerical model that prime-numbered cycles are indeed selected for among 10- to 20-year cycles. Here, we develop a real-number-based model to investigate the factors affecting the selection of prime-numbered cycles. We include an Allee effect in our model, such that a critical population size is set as an extinction threshold. We compare the real-number models with and without the Allee effect. The results show that in the presence of an Allee effect, prime-numbered life cycles are most likely to persist and to be selected under a wide range of extinction thresholds.

A cost-effectiveness analysis evaluating endoscopic surveillance for gastric cancer for populations with low to intermediate risk.

PubMed

Zhou, Hui Jun; Dan, Yock Young; Naidoo, Nasheen; Li, Shu Chuen; Yeoh, Khay Guan

2013-01-01

Gastric cancer (GC) surveillance based on oesophagogastroduodenoscopy (OGD) appears to be a promising strategy for GC prevention. By evaluating the cost-effectiveness of endoscopic surveillance in Singaporean Chinese, this study aimed to inform the implementation of such a program in a population with a low to intermediate GC risk. USING A REFERENCE STRATEGY OF NO OGD INTERVENTION, WE EVALUATED FOUR STRATEGIES: 2-yearly OGD surveillance, annual OGD surveillance, 2-yearly OGD screening and 2-yearly screening plus annual surveillance in Singaporean Chinese aged 50-69 years. From a perspective of the healthcare system, Markov models were built to simulate the life experience of the target population. The models projected discounted lifetime costs ($), quality adjusted life year (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) indicating the cost-effectiveness of each strategy against a Singapore willingness-to-pay of $46,200/QALY. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to identify the influential variables and their associated thresholds, and to quantify the influence of parameter uncertainties respectively. With an ICER of $44,098/QALY, the annual OGD surveillance was the optimal strategy while the 2-yearly surveillance was the most cost-effective strategy (ICER = $25,949/QALY). The screening-based strategies were either extendedly dominated or cost-ineffective. The cost-effectiveness heterogeneity of the four strategies was observed across age-gender subgroups. Eight influential parameters were identified each with their specific thresholds to define the choice of optimal strategy. Accounting for the model uncertainties, the probability that the annual surveillance is the optimal strategy in Singapore was 44.5%. Endoscopic surveillance is potentially cost-effective in the prevention of GC for populations at low to intermediate risk. Regarding program implementation, a detailed analysis of influential factors and their associated thresholds is necessary. Multiple strategies should be considered in order to recommend the right strategy for the right population.

Analytical connection between thresholds and immunization strategies of SIS model in random networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Ming-Yang; Xiong, Wen-Man; Liao, Hao; Wang, Tong; Wei, Zong-Wen; Fu, Zhong-Qian

2018-05-01

Devising effective strategies for hindering the propagation of viruses and protecting the population against epidemics is critical for public security and health. Despite a number of studies based on the susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model devoted to this topic, we still lack a general framework to compare different immunization strategies in completely random networks. Here, we address this problem by suggesting a novel method based on heterogeneous mean-field theory for the SIS model. Our method builds the relationship between the thresholds and different immunization strategies in completely random networks. Besides, we provide an analytical argument that the targeted large-degree strategy achieves the best performance in random networks with arbitrary degree distribution. Moreover, the experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in both artificial and real-world networks.

A quantitative model of honey bee colony population dynamics.

PubMed

Khoury, David S; Myerscough, Mary R; Barron, Andrew B

2011-04-18

Since 2006 the rate of honey bee colony failure has increased significantly. As an aid to testing hypotheses for the causes of colony failure we have developed a compartment model of honey bee colony population dynamics to explore the impact of different death rates of forager bees on colony growth and development. The model predicts a critical threshold forager death rate beneath which colonies regulate a stable population size. If death rates are sustained higher than this threshold rapid population decline is predicted and colony failure is inevitable. The model also predicts that high forager death rates draw hive bees into the foraging population at much younger ages than normal, which acts to accelerate colony failure. The model suggests that colony failure can be understood in terms of observed principles of honey bee population dynamics, and provides a theoretical framework for experimental investigation of the problem.

Density-dependent selection on mate search and evolution of Allee effects.

PubMed

Berec, Luděk; Kramer, Andrew M; Bernhauerová, Veronika; Drake, John M

2018-01-01

Sexually reproducing organisms require males and females to find each other. Increased difficulty of females finding mates as male density declines is the most frequently reported mechanism of Allee effects in animals. Evolving more effective mate search may alleviate Allee effects, but may depend on density regimes a population experiences. In particular, high-density populations may evolve mechanisms that induce Allee effects which become detrimental when populations are reduced and maintained at a low density. We develop an individual-based, eco-genetic model to study how mating systems and fitness trade-offs interact with changes in population density to drive evolution of the rate at which males or females search for mates. Finite mate search rate triggers Allee effects in our model and we explore how these Allee effects respond to such evolution. We allow a population to adapt to several population density regimes and examine whether high-density populations are likely to reverse adaptations attained at low densities. We find density-dependent selection in most of scenarios, leading to search rates that result in lower Allee thresholds in populations kept at lower densities. This mainly occurs when fecundity costs are imposed on mate search, and provides an explanation for why Allee effects are often observed in anthropogenically rare species. Optimizing selection, where the attained trait value minimizes the Allee threshold independent of population density, depended on the trade-off between search and survival, combined with monogamy when females were searching. Other scenarios led to runaway selection on the mate search rate, including evolutionary suicide. Trade-offs involved in mate search may thus be crucial to determining how density influences the evolution of Allee effects. Previous studies did not examine evolution of a trait related to the strength of Allee effects under density variation. We emphasize the crucial role that mating systems, fitness trade-offs and the evolving sex have in determining the density threshold for population persistence, in particular since evolution need not always take the Allee threshold to its minimum value. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Implications of Nine Risk Prediction Models for Selecting Ever-Smokers for Computed Tomography Lung Cancer Screening.

PubMed

Katki, Hormuzd A; Kovalchik, Stephanie A; Petito, Lucia C; Cheung, Li C; Jacobs, Eric; Jemal, Ahmedin; Berg, Christine D; Chaturvedi, Anil K

2018-05-15

Lung cancer screening guidelines recommend using individualized risk models to refer ever-smokers for screening. However, different models select different screening populations. The performance of each model in selecting ever-smokers for screening is unknown. To compare the U.S. screening populations selected by 9 lung cancer risk models (the Bach model; the Spitz model; the Liverpool Lung Project [LLP] model; the LLP Incidence Risk Model [LLPi]; the Hoggart model; the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial Model 2012 [PLCOM2012]; the Pittsburgh Predictor; the Lung Cancer Risk Assessment Tool [LCRAT]; and the Lung Cancer Death Risk Assessment Tool [LCDRAT]) and to examine their predictive performance in 2 cohorts. Population-based prospective studies. United States. Models selected U.S. screening populations by using data from the National Health Interview Survey from 2010 to 2012. Model performance was evaluated using data from 337 388 ever-smokers in the National Institutes of Health-AARP Diet and Health Study and 72 338 ever-smokers in the CPS-II (Cancer Prevention Study II) Nutrition Survey cohort. Model calibration (ratio of model-predicted to observed cases [expected-observed ratio]) and discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]). At a 5-year risk threshold of 2.0%, the models chose U.S. screening populations ranging from 7.6 million to 26 million ever-smokers. These disagreements occurred because, in both validation cohorts, 4 models (the Bach model, PLCOM2012, LCRAT, and LCDRAT) were well-calibrated (expected-observed ratio range, 0.92 to 1.12) and had higher AUCs (range, 0.75 to 0.79) than 5 models that generally overestimated risk (expected-observed ratio range, 0.83 to 3.69) and had lower AUCs (range, 0.62 to 0.75). The 4 best-performing models also had the highest sensitivity at a fixed specificity (and vice versa) and similar discrimination at a fixed risk threshold. These models showed better agreement on size of the screening population (7.6 million to 10.9 million) and achieved consensus on 73% of persons chosen. No consensus on risk thresholds for screening. The 9 lung cancer risk models chose widely differing U.S. screening populations. However, 4 models (the Bach model, PLCOM2012, LCRAT, and LCDRAT) most accurately predicted risk and performed best in selecting ever-smokers for screening. Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health/National Cancer Institute.

Evaluation of clinical risk factors for osteoporosis and applicability of the FRAX tool in Joinville City, Southern Brazil.

PubMed

Silva, Dalisbor Marcelo Weber; Borba, Victoria Zeghbi Cochenski; Kanis, John A

2017-12-09

Clinical risk factors for fracture in Southern Brazil are similar to those used in Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX®). Age-dependent intervention thresholds had higher accuracy than a fixed cut-off point. Access to bone mineral density testing is wanted for a large part of the Brazilian population. The FRAX® has an option to calculate the risk of fracture without this costly evaluation but relies on the clinical risk factors (CRFs) identified in the source cohorts used to generate FRAX. The aims of this study were to determine whether the CRFs used in FRAX are also risk indicators for individuals in Southern Brazil and to evaluate possible intervention thresholds for treatment in Brazil. We determined the CRFs for hip fractures in women and men aged 50 years and more with a hip fracture and controls in Joinville, Southern Brazil (April 1, 2010, and March 31, 2012). For intervention thresholds, we determined the accuracy of using the fixed thresholds of National Osteoporosis Foundation (NOF), USA, compared with the age-dependent thresholds of the National Osteoporosis Guideline Group (NOGG), UK. CRFs that were significant for hip fracture were very similar to FRAX, apart from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and malabsorptive intestinal disease. FRAX based on the NOGG and NOF models had an accuracy of 64.2 and 58.7%, respectively. CRFs used in FRAX® were similar to those in the Southern Brazil. The NOGG model seems to be more accurate to discriminate patients with increased fracture risk in this population compared to the NOF model, but not significantly.

Critical Mutation Rate Has an Exponential Dependence on Population Size in Haploid and Diploid Populations

PubMed Central

Aston, Elizabeth; Channon, Alastair; Day, Charles; Knight, Christopher G.

2013-01-01

Understanding the effect of population size on the key parameters of evolution is particularly important for populations nearing extinction. There are evolutionary pressures to evolve sequences that are both fit and robust. At high mutation rates, individuals with greater mutational robustness can outcompete those with higher fitness. This is survival-of-the-flattest, and has been observed in digital organisms, theoretically, in simulated RNA evolution, and in RNA viruses. We introduce an algorithmic method capable of determining the relationship between population size, the critical mutation rate at which individuals with greater robustness to mutation are favoured over individuals with greater fitness, and the error threshold. Verification for this method is provided against analytical models for the error threshold. We show that the critical mutation rate for increasing haploid population sizes can be approximated by an exponential function, with much lower mutation rates tolerated by small populations. This is in contrast to previous studies which identified that critical mutation rate was independent of population size. The algorithm is extended to diploid populations in a system modelled on the biological process of meiosis. The results confirm that the relationship remains exponential, but show that both the critical mutation rate and error threshold are lower for diploids, rather than higher as might have been expected. Analyzing the transition from critical mutation rate to error threshold provides an improved definition of critical mutation rate. Natural populations with their numbers in decline can be expected to lose genetic material in line with the exponential model, accelerating and potentially irreversibly advancing their decline, and this could potentially affect extinction, recovery and population management strategy. The effect of population size is particularly strong in small populations with 100 individuals or less; the exponential model has significant potential in aiding population management to prevent local (and global) extinction events. PMID:24386200

Establishing a beachhead: A stochastic population model with an Allee effect applied to species invasion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ackleh, A.S.; Allen, L.J.S.; Carter, J.

2007-01-01

We formulated a spatially explicit stochastic population model with an Allee effect in order to explore how invasive species may become established. In our model, we varied the degree of migration between local populations and used an Allee effect with variable birth and death rates. Because of the stochastic component, population sizes below the Allee effect threshold may still have a positive probability for successful invasion. The larger the network of populations, the greater the probability of an invasion occurring when initial population sizes are close to or above the Allee threshold. Furthermore, if migration rates are low, one or more than one patch may be successfully invaded, while if migration rates are high all patches are invaded. ?? 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Relation of the runaway avalanche threshold to momentum space topology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDevitt, Christopher J.; Guo, Zehua; Tang, Xian-Zhu

2018-02-01

The underlying physics responsible for the formation of an avalanche instability due to the generation of secondary electrons is studied. A careful examination of the momentum space topology of the runaway electron population is carried out with an eye toward identifying how qualitative changes in the momentum space of the runaway electrons is correlated with the avalanche threshold. It is found that the avalanche threshold is tied to the merger of an O and X point in the momentum space of the primary runaway electron population. Such a change of the momentum space topology is shown to be accurately described by a simple analytic model, thus providing a powerful means of determining the avalanche threshold for a range of model assumptions.

Porcine skin visible lesion thresholds for near-infrared lasers including modeling at two pulse durations and spot sizes.

PubMed

Cain, C P; Polhamus, G D; Roach, W P; Stolarski, D J; Schuster, K J; Stockton, K L; Rockwell, B A; Chen, Bo; Welch, A J

2006-01-01

With the advent of such systems as the airborne laser and advanced tactical laser, high-energy lasers that use 1315-nm wavelengths in the near-infrared band will soon present a new laser safety challenge to armed forces and civilian populations. Experiments in nonhuman primates using this wavelength have demonstrated a range of ocular injuries, including corneal, lenticular, and retinal lesions as a function of pulse duration. American National Standards Institute (ANSI) laser safety standards have traditionally been based on experimental data, and there is scant data for this wavelength. We are reporting minimum visible lesion (MVL) threshold measurements using a porcine skin model for two different pulse durations and spot sizes for this wavelength. We also compare our measurements to results from our model based on the heat transfer equation and rate process equation, together with actual temperature measurements on the skin surface using a high-speed infrared camera. Our MVL-ED50 thresholds for long pulses (350 micros) at 24-h postexposure are measured to be 99 and 83 J cm(-2) for spot sizes of 0.7 and 1.3 mm diam, respectively. Q-switched laser pulses of 50 ns have a lower threshold of 11 J cm(-2) for a 5-mm-diam top-hat laser pulse.

A method for managing re-identification risk from small geographic areas in Canada

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background A common disclosure control practice for health datasets is to identify small geographic areas and either suppress records from these small areas or aggregate them into larger ones. A recent study provided a method for deciding when an area is too small based on the uniqueness criterion. The uniqueness criterion stipulates that an the area is no longer too small when the proportion of unique individuals on the relevant variables (the quasi-identifiers) approaches zero. However, using a uniqueness value of zero is quite a stringent threshold, and is only suitable when the risks from data disclosure are quite high. Other uniqueness thresholds that have been proposed for health data are 5% and 20%. Methods We estimated uniqueness for urban Forward Sortation Areas (FSAs) by using the 2001 long form Canadian census data representing 20% of the population. We then constructed two logistic regression models to predict when the uniqueness is greater than the 5% and 20% thresholds, and validated their predictive accuracy using 10-fold cross-validation. Predictor variables included the population size of the FSA and the maximum number of possible values on the quasi-identifiers (the number of equivalence classes). Results All model parameters were significant and the models had very high prediction accuracy, with specificity above 0.9, and sensitivity at 0.87 and 0.74 for the 5% and 20% threshold models respectively. The application of the models was illustrated with an analysis of the Ontario newborn registry and an emergency department dataset. At the higher thresholds considerably fewer records compared to the 0% threshold would be considered to be in small areas and therefore undergo disclosure control actions. We have also included concrete guidance for data custodians in deciding which one of the three uniqueness thresholds to use (0%, 5%, 20%), depending on the mitigating controls that the data recipients have in place, the potential invasion of privacy if the data is disclosed, and the motives and capacity of the data recipient to re-identify the data. Conclusion The models we developed can be used to manage the re-identification risk from small geographic areas. Being able to choose among three possible thresholds, a data custodian can adjust the definition of "small geographic area" to the nature of the data and recipient. PMID:20361870

A mathematical study of a model for childhood diseases with non-permanent immunity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moghadas, S. M.; Gumel, A. B.

2003-08-01

Protecting children from diseases that can be prevented by vaccination is a primary goal of health administrators. Since vaccination is considered to be the most effective strategy against childhood diseases, the development of a framework that would predict the optimal vaccine coverage level needed to prevent the spread of these diseases is crucial. This paper provides this framework via qualitative and quantitative analysis of a deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of a childhood disease in the presence of a preventive vaccine that may wane over time. Using global stability analysis of the model, based on constructing a Lyapunov function, it is shown that the disease can be eradicated from the population if the vaccination coverage level exceeds a certain threshold value. It is also shown that the disease will persist within the population if the coverage level is below this threshold. These results are verified numerically by constructing, and then simulating, a robust semi-explicit second-order finite-difference method.

Clinical multiple sclerosis occurs at one end of a spectrum of CNS pathology: a modified threshold liability model leads to new ways of thinking about the cause of clinical multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Haegert, David G

2005-01-01

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a complex trait, the causes of which are elusive. A threshold liability model influences thinking about the causes of this disorder. According to this model, a population has a normal distribution of genetic liability to MS. In addition, a threshold exists, so that MS begins when an individual's liability exceeds the MS threshold; environmental and other causative factors may increase or decrease an individual's MS liability. It is argued here, however, that this model is misleading, as it is based on the incorrect assumption that MS is a disorder that one either has or does not have. This paper hypothesizes, instead, that patients with a diagnosis of MS share identical CNS pathology, termed MS pathology, with some individuals who have a diagnosis of possible MS and with some apparently healthy individuals, who may never have a diagnosis of MS. In order to accommodate this hypothesis, the current threshold liability model is modified as follows. (1) In addition to a normal distribution of MS liability within a population, a spectrum of MS pathology occurs in some who have a high MS liability. (2) A clinical MS threshold exists at a point on this liability distribution, where the burden and distribution of MS pathology permits a diagnosis of clinical MS. (3) Additional thresholds exist that correspond to a lower MS liability and a lesser burden of MS pathology than occur at the clinical MS threshold. This modified threshold model leads to the postulate that causes act at various time points to increase MS liability and induce MS pathology. The accumulation of MS pathology sometimes leads to a diagnosis of clinical MS. One implication of this model is that the MS pathology in clinical MS and in some with possible MS differs only in the extent but not in the type of CNS injury. Thus, it may be possible to obtain insight into the causative environmental factors that increase MS liability and induce MS pathology by focusing on patients who have clinical MS; some environmental factors that induce new lesions in patients with clinical MS may be identical to those that induce MS pathology in genetically susceptible individuals who do not have clinical MS. Identification of these causative factors has importance, as specific treatment may prevent the accumulation of MS pathology that leads to the significant CNS damage associated with clinical MS.

Mathematical Model of Naive T Cell Division and Survival IL-7 Thresholds.

PubMed

Reynolds, Joseph; Coles, Mark; Lythe, Grant; Molina-París, Carmen

2013-01-01

We develop a mathematical model of the peripheral naive T cell population to study the change in human naive T cell numbers from birth to adulthood, incorporating thymic output and the availability of interleukin-7 (IL-7). The model is formulated as three ordinary differential equations: two describe T cell numbers, in a resting state and progressing through the cell cycle. The third is introduced to describe changes in IL-7 availability. Thymic output is a decreasing function of time, representative of the thymic atrophy observed in aging humans. Each T cell is assumed to possess two interleukin-7 receptor (IL-7R) signaling thresholds: a survival threshold and a second, higher, proliferation threshold. If the IL-7R signaling strength is below its survival threshold, a cell may undergo apoptosis. When the signaling strength is above the survival threshold, but below the proliferation threshold, the cell survives but does not divide. Signaling strength above the proliferation threshold enables entry into cell cycle. Assuming that individual cell thresholds are log-normally distributed, we derive population-average rates for apoptosis and entry into cell cycle. We have analyzed the adiabatic change in homeostasis as thymic output decreases. With a parameter set representative of a healthy individual, the model predicts a unique equilibrium number of T cells. In a parameter range representative of persistent viral or bacterial infection, where naive T cell cycle progression is impaired, a decrease in thymic output may result in the collapse of the naive T cell repertoire.

Extinction dynamics of a discrete population in an oasis.

PubMed

Berti, Stefano; Cencini, Massimo; Vergni, Davide; Vulpiani, Angelo

2015-07-01

Understanding the conditions ensuring the persistence of a population is an issue of primary importance in population biology. The first theoretical approach to the problem dates back to the 1950s with the Kierstead, Slobodkin, and Skellam (KiSS) model, namely a continuous reaction-diffusion equation for a population growing on a patch of finite size L surrounded by a deadly environment with infinite mortality, i.e., an oasis in a desert. The main outcome of the model is that only patches above a critical size allow for population persistence. Here we introduce an individual-based analog of the KiSS model to investigate the effects of discreteness and demographic stochasticity. In particular, we study the average time to extinction both above and below the critical patch size of the continuous model and investigate the quasistationary distribution of the number of individuals for patch sizes above the critical threshold.

A geographic analysis of population density thresholds in the influenza pandemic of 1918-19.

PubMed

Chandra, Siddharth; Kassens-Noor, Eva; Kuljanin, Goran; Vertalka, Joshua

2013-02-20

Geographic variables play an important role in the study of epidemics. The role of one such variable, population density, in the spread of influenza is controversial. Prior studies have tested for such a role using arbitrary thresholds for population density above or below which places are hypothesized to have higher or lower mortality. The results of such studies are mixed. The objective of this study is to estimate, rather than assume, a threshold level of population density that separates low-density regions from high-density regions on the basis of population loss during an influenza pandemic. We study the case of the influenza pandemic of 1918-19 in India, where over 15 million people died in the short span of less than one year. Using data from six censuses for 199 districts of India (n=1194), the country with the largest number of deaths from the influenza of 1918-19, we use a sample-splitting method embedded within a population growth model that explicitly quantifies population loss from the pandemic to estimate a threshold level of population density that separates low-density districts from high-density districts. The results demonstrate a threshold level of population density of 175 people per square mile. A concurrent finding is that districts on the low side of the threshold experienced rates of population loss (3.72%) that were lower than districts on the high side of the threshold (4.69%). This paper introduces a useful analytic tool to the health geographic literature. It illustrates an application of the tool to demonstrate that it can be useful for pandemic awareness and preparedness efforts. Specifically, it estimates a level of population density above which policies to socially distance, redistribute or quarantine populations are likely to be more effective than they are for areas with population densities that lie below the threshold.

A geographic analysis of population density thresholds in the influenza pandemic of 1918–19

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Geographic variables play an important role in the study of epidemics. The role of one such variable, population density, in the spread of influenza is controversial. Prior studies have tested for such a role using arbitrary thresholds for population density above or below which places are hypothesized to have higher or lower mortality. The results of such studies are mixed. The objective of this study is to estimate, rather than assume, a threshold level of population density that separates low-density regions from high-density regions on the basis of population loss during an influenza pandemic. We study the case of the influenza pandemic of 1918–19 in India, where over 15 million people died in the short span of less than one year. Methods Using data from six censuses for 199 districts of India (n=1194), the country with the largest number of deaths from the influenza of 1918–19, we use a sample-splitting method embedded within a population growth model that explicitly quantifies population loss from the pandemic to estimate a threshold level of population density that separates low-density districts from high-density districts. Results The results demonstrate a threshold level of population density of 175 people per square mile. A concurrent finding is that districts on the low side of the threshold experienced rates of population loss (3.72%) that were lower than districts on the high side of the threshold (4.69%). Conclusions This paper introduces a useful analytic tool to the health geographic literature. It illustrates an application of the tool to demonstrate that it can be useful for pandemic awareness and preparedness efforts. Specifically, it estimates a level of population density above which policies to socially distance, redistribute or quarantine populations are likely to be more effective than they are for areas with population densities that lie below the threshold. PMID:23425498

Application of Johnson et al.'s speciation threshold model to apparent colonization times of island biotas.

PubMed

Ricklefs, Robert E; Bermingham, Eldredge

2004-08-01

Understanding patterns of diversity can be furthered by analysis of the dynamics of colonization, speciation, and extinction on islands using historical information provided by molecular phylogeography. The land birds of the Lesser Antilles are one of the most thoroughly described regional faunas in this context. In an analysis of colonization times, Ricklefs and Bermingham (2001) found that the cumulative distribution of lineages with respect to increasing time since colonization exhibits a striking change in slope at a genetic distance of about 2% mitochondrial DNA sequence divergence (about one million years). They further showed how this heterogeneity could be explained by either an abrupt increase in colonization rates or a mass extinction event. Cherry et al. (2002), referring to a model developed by Johnson et al. (2000), argued instead that the pattern resulted from a speciation threshold for reproductive isolation of island populations from their continental source populations. Prior to this threshold, genetic divergence is slowed by migration from the source, and species of varying age accumulate at a low genetic distance. After the threshold is reached, source and island populations diverge more rapidly, creating heterogeneity in the distribution of apparent ages of island taxa. We simulated of Johnson et al.'s speciation-threshold model, incorporating genetic divergence at rate k and fixation at rate M of genes that have migrated between the source and the island population. Fixation resets the divergence clock to zero. The speciation-threshold model fits the distribution of divergence times of Lesser Antillean birds well with biologically plausible parameter estimates. Application of the model to the Hawaiian avifauna, which does not exhibit marked heterogeneity of genetic divergence, and the West Indian herpetofauna, which does, required unreasonably high migration-fixation rates, several orders of magnitude greater than the colonization rate. However, the plausibility of the speciation-divergence model for Lesser Antillean birds emphasizes the importance of further investigation of historical biogeography on a regional scale for whole biotas, as well as the migration of genes between populations on long time scales and the achievement of reproductive isolation.

Non-Linear Concentration-Response Relationships between Ambient Ozone and Daily Mortality.

PubMed

Bae, Sanghyuk; Lim, Youn-Hee; Kashima, Saori; Yorifuji, Takashi; Honda, Yasushi; Kim, Ho; Hong, Yun-Chul

2015-01-01

Ambient ozone (O3) concentration has been reported to be significantly associated with mortality. However, linearity of the relationships and the presence of a threshold has been controversial. The aim of the present study was to examine the concentration-response relationship and threshold of the association between ambient O3 concentration and non-accidental mortality in 13 Japanese and Korean cities from 2000 to 2009. We selected Japanese and Korean cities which have population of over 1 million. We constructed Poisson regression models adjusting daily mean temperature, daily mean PM10, humidity, time trend, season, year, day of the week, holidays and yearly population. The association between O3 concentration and mortality was examined using linear, spline and linear-threshold models. The thresholds were estimated for each city, by constructing linear-threshold models. We also examined the city-combined association using a generalized additive mixed model. The mean O3 concentration did not differ greatly between Korea and Japan, which were 26.2 ppb and 24.2 ppb, respectively. Seven out of 13 cities showed better fits for the spline model compared with the linear model, supporting a non-linear relationships between O3 concentration and mortality. All of the 7 cities showed J or U shaped associations suggesting the existence of thresholds. The range of city-specific thresholds was from 11 to 34 ppb. The city-combined analysis also showed a non-linear association with a threshold around 30-40 ppb. We have observed non-linear concentration-response relationship with thresholds between daily mean ambient O3 concentration and daily number of non-accidental death in Japanese and Korean cities.

[FRAX® thresholds to identify people with high or low risk of osteoporotic fracture in Spanish female population].

PubMed

Azagra, Rafael; Roca, Genís; Martín-Sánchez, Juan Carlos; Casado, Enrique; Encabo, Gloria; Zwart, Marta; Aguyé, Amada; Díez-Pérez, Adolf

2015-01-06

To detect FRAX(®) threshold levels that identify groups of the population that are at high/low risk of osteoporotic fracture in the Spanish female population using a cost-effective assessment. This is a cohort study. Eight hundred and sixteen women 40-90 years old selected from the FRIDEX cohort with densitometry and risk factors for fracture at baseline who received no treatment for osteoporosis during the 10 year follow-up period and were stratified into 3 groups/levels of fracture risk (low<10%, 10-20% intermediate and high>20%) according to the real fracture incidence. The thresholds of FRAX(®) baseline for major osteoporotic fracture were: low risk<5; intermediate ≥ 5 to <7.5 and high ≥ 7.5. The incidence of fracture with these values was: low risk (3.6%; 95% CI 2.2-5.9), intermediate risk (13.7%; 95% CI 7.1-24.2) and high risk (21.4%; 95% CI12.9-33.2). The most cost-effective option was to refer to dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA-scan) for FRAX(®)≥ 5 (Intermediate and high risk) to reclassify by FRAX(®) with DXA-scan at high/low risk. These thresholds select 17.5% of women for DXA-scan and 10% for treatment. With these thresholds of FRAX(®), compared with the strategy of opportunistic case finding isolated risk factors, would improve the predictive parameters and reduce 82.5% the DXA-scan, 35.4% osteoporosis prescriptions and 28.7% cost to detect the same number of women who suffer fractures. The use of FRAX ® thresholds identified as high/low risk of osteoporotic fracture in this calibration (FRIDEX model) improve predictive parameters in Spanish women and in a more cost-effective than the traditional model based on the T-score ≤ -2.5 of DXA scan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Aming; Broom, Mark; Du, Jinming; Wang, Long

2016-02-01

The evolution of populations is influenced by many factors, and the simple classical models have been developed in a number of important ways. Both population structure and multiplayer interactions have been shown to significantly affect the evolution of important properties, such as the level of cooperation or of aggressive behavior. Here we combine these two key factors and develop the evolutionary dynamics of general group interactions in structured populations represented by regular graphs. The traditional linear and threshold public goods games are adopted as models to address the dynamics. We show that for linear group interactions, population structure can favor the evolution of cooperation compared to the well-mixed case, and we see that the more neighbors there are, the harder it is for cooperators to persist in structured populations. We further show that threshold group interactions could lead to the emergence of cooperation even in well-mixed populations. Here population structure sometimes inhibits cooperation for the threshold public goods game, where depending on the benefit to cost ratio, the outcomes are bistability or a monomorphic population of defectors or cooperators. Our results suggest, counterintuitively, that structured populations are not always beneficial for the evolution of cooperation for nonlinear group interactions.

Relation of the runaway avalanche threshold to momentum space topology

DOE PAGES

McDevitt, Christopher J.; Guo, Zehua; Tang, Xian -Zhu

2018-01-05

Here, the underlying physics responsible for the formation of an avalanche instability due to the generation of secondary electrons is studied. A careful examination of the momentum space topology of the runaway electron population is carried out with an eye toward identifying how qualitative changes in the momentum space of the runaway electrons is correlated with the avalanche threshold. It is found that the avalanche threshold is tied to the merger of an O and X point in the momentum space of the primary runaway electron population. Such a change of the momentum space topology is shown to be accuratelymore » described by a simple analytic model, thus providing a powerful means of determining the avalanche threshold for a range of model assumptions.« less

Relation of the runaway avalanche threshold to momentum space topology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

McDevitt, Christopher J.; Guo, Zehua; Tang, Xian -Zhu

Here, the underlying physics responsible for the formation of an avalanche instability due to the generation of secondary electrons is studied. A careful examination of the momentum space topology of the runaway electron population is carried out with an eye toward identifying how qualitative changes in the momentum space of the runaway electrons is correlated with the avalanche threshold. It is found that the avalanche threshold is tied to the merger of an O and X point in the momentum space of the primary runaway electron population. Such a change of the momentum space topology is shown to be accuratelymore » described by a simple analytic model, thus providing a powerful means of determining the avalanche threshold for a range of model assumptions.« less

Use of intraspecific variation in thermal responses for estimating an elevational cline in the timing of cold hardening in a sub-boreal conifer.

PubMed

Ishizuka, W; Ono, K; Hara, T; Goto, S

2015-01-01

To avoid winter frost damage, evergreen coniferous species develop cold hardiness with suitable phenology for the local climate regime. Along the elevational gradient, a genetic cline in autumn phenology is often recognised among coniferous populations, but further quantification of evolutionary adaptation related to the local environment and its responsible signals generating the phenological variation are poorly understood. We evaluated the timing of cold hardening among populations of Abies sachalinensis, based on time series freezing tests using trees derived from four seed source populations × three planting sites. Furthermore, we constructed a model to estimate the development of hardening from field temperatures and the intraspecific variations occurring during this process. An elevational cline was detected such that high-elevation populations developed cold hardiness earlier than low-elevation populations, representing significant genetic control. Because development occurred earlier at high-elevation planting sites, the genetic trend across elevation overlapped with the environmental trend. Based on the trade-off between later hardening to lengthen the active growth period and earlier hardening to avoid frost damage, this genetic cline would be adaptive to the local climate. Our modelling approach estimated intraspecific variation in two model components: the threshold temperature, which was the criterion for determining whether the trees accumulated the thermal value, and the chilling requirement for trees to achieve adequate cold hardiness. A higher threshold temperature and a lower chilling requirement could be responsible for the earlier phenology of the high-elevation population. These thermal responses may be one of the important factors driving the elevation-dependent adaptation of A. sachalinensis. © 2014 German Botanical Society and The Royal Botanical Society of the Netherlands.

Modelling the Future Hydroclimatology of the Lower Fraser River and its Impacts on the Spawning Migration Survival of Sockeye Salmon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hague, M. J.; Ferrari, M. R.; Miller, J. R.; Patterson, D. A.; Russell, G. L.; Farrell, A.P.; Hinch, S. G.

2010-01-01

Short episodic high temperature events can be lethal for migrating adult Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.). We downscaled temperatures for the Fraser River, British Columbia to evaluate the impact of climate warming on the frequency of exceeding thermal thresholds associated with salmon migratory success. Alarmingly, a modest 1.0 C increase in average summer water temperature over 100 years (1981-2000 to 2081-2100) tripled the number of days per year exceeding critical salmonid thermal thresholds (i.e. 19.0 C). Refined thresholds for two populations (Gates Creek and Weaver Creek) of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) were defined using physiological constraint models based on aerobic scope. While extreme temperatures leading to complete aerobic collapse remained unlikely under our warming scenario, both populations were increasingly forced to migrate upriver at reduced levels of aerobic performance (e.g. in 80% of future simulations, => 90% of salmon encountered temperatures exceeding population specific thermal optima for maximum aerobic scope; T(sub opt)) = 16.3 C for Gates Creek and T(sub sopt)=14.5 C for Weaver Creek). Assuming recent changes to river entry timing persist, we also predicted dramatic increases in the probability of freshwater mortality for Weaver Creek salmon due to reductions in aerobic, and general physiological, performance (e.g. in 42% of future simulations =>50% of Weaver Creek fish exceeded temperature thresholds associated with 0 - 60% of maximum aerobic scope). Potential for adaptation via directional selection on run-timing was more evident for the Weaver Creek population. Early entry Weaver Creek fish experienced 25% (range: 15 - 31%) more suboptimal temperatures than late entrants, compared with an 8% difference (range: 0 - 17%) between early and late Gates Creek fish. Our results emphasize the need to consider daily temperature variability in association with population-specific differences in behaviour and physiological constraints when forecasting impacts of climate change on migratory survival of aquatic species.

Cost-effectiveness of community-based strategies to strengthen the continuum of HIV care in rural South Africa: a health economic modelling analysis.

PubMed

Smith, Jennifer A; Sharma, Monisha; Levin, Carol; Baeten, Jared M; van Rooyen, Heidi; Celum, Connie; Hallett, Timothy B; Barnabas, Ruanne V

2015-04-01

Home HIV counselling and testing (HTC) achieves high coverage of testing and linkage to care compared with existing facility-based approaches, particularly among asymptomatic individuals. In a modelling analysis we aimed to assess the effect on population-level health and cost-effectiveness of a community-based package of home HTC in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. We parameterised an individual-based model with data from home HTC and linkage field studies that achieved high coverage (91%) and linkage to antiretroviral therapy (80%) in rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Costs were derived from a linked microcosting study. The model simulated 10,000 individuals over 10 years and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for the intervention relative to the existing status quo of facility-based testing, with costs discounted at 3% annually. The model predicted implementation of home HTC in addition to current practice to decrease HIV-associated morbidity by 10–22% and HIV infections by 9–48% with increasing CD4 cell count thresholds for antiretroviral therapy initiation. Incremental programme costs were US$2·7 million to $4·4 million higher in the intervention scenarios than at baseline, and costs increased with higher CD4 cell count thresholds for antiretroviral therapy initiation; antiretroviral therapy accounted for 48–87% of total costs. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios per disability-adjusted life-year averted were $1340 at an antiretroviral therapy threshold of CD4 count lower than 200 cells per μL, $1090 at lower than 350 cells per μL, $1150 at lower than 500 cells per μL, and $1360 at universal access to antiretroviral therapy. Community-based HTC with enhanced linkage to care can result in increased HIV testing coverage and treatment uptake, decreasing the population burden of HIV-associated morbidity and mortality. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios are less than 20% of South Africa's gross domestic product per person, and are therefore classed as very cost effective. Home HTC can be a viable means to achieve UNAIDS' ambitious new targets for HIV treatment coverage. National Institutes of Health, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust.

Relationship Between Crop Losses and Initial Population Densities of Meloidogyne arenaria in Winter-Grown Oriental Melon in Korea

PubMed Central

Kim, D.G.; Ferris, H.

2002-01-01

To determine the economic threshold level, oriental melon (Cucumis melo L. cv. Geumssaragi-euncheon) grafted on Shintozoa (Cucurbita maxima × Cu. moschata) was planted in plots (2 × 3 m) under a plastic film in February with a range of initial population densities (Pi) of Meloidogyne arenaria. The relationships of early, late, and total yield to Pi measured in September and January were adequately described by both linear regression and the Seinhorst damage model. Initial nematode densities in September in excess of 14 second-stage juveniles (J2)/100 cm³ soil caused losses in total yields that exceeded the economic threshold and indicate the need for fosthiazate nematicide treatment at current costs. Differences in yield-loss relationships to Pi between early- and late-season harvests enhance the resolution of the management decision and suggest approaches for optimizing returns. Determination of population levels for advisory purposes can be based on assay samples taken several months before planting, which allows time for implementation of management procedures. We introduce (i) an amendment of the economic threshold definition to reflect efficacy of the nematode management procedure under consideration, and (ii) the concept of profit limit as the nematode population at which net returns from the system will become negative. PMID:19265907

Uniqueness of Nash equilibrium in vaccination games.

PubMed

Bai, Fan

2016-12-01

One crucial condition for the uniqueness of Nash equilibrium set in vaccination games is that the attack ratio monotonically decreases as the vaccine coverage level increasing. We consider several deterministic vaccination models in homogeneous mixing population and in heterogeneous mixing population. Based on the final size relations obtained from the deterministic epidemic models, we prove that the attack ratios can be expressed in terms of the vaccine coverage levels, and also prove that the attack ratios are decreasing functions of vaccine coverage levels. Some thresholds are presented, which depend on the vaccine efficacy. It is proved that for vaccination games in homogeneous mixing population, there is a unique Nash equilibrium for each game.

Phonatory threshold pressure in a healthy population before and after aerosol treatment, a preliminary study.

PubMed

Grini-Grandval, M N; Bingenheimer, S; Maunsell, R; Ouaknine, M; Giovanni, A

2002-01-01

The viscosity of the surface mucus of the vocal cords is one of the important elements for good laryngeal functioning. It has been demonstrated that inhalation of hydrated air increases the phonatory threshold pressure by decreasing viscosity of the mucus (1) leading to a more regular vibration that can be appreciated by jitter (2). In an attempt to correlate the concepts of tissue viscosity and surface mucus considering the theoretical model of vibration we measured the phonatory threshold pressure in 6 healthy female subjects before and after aerosol treatment. We were able to demonstrate that the pressure threshold is lower (3.15 hPa) after aerosol treatment than before (3.79 hPa) and this was statistically significant (p: 0.041). The discussion is based on this decrease of mucus viscosity applied to the physiological concepts necessary to understand glottic vibration.

Evaluation of different radon guideline values based on characterization of ecological risk and visualization of lung cancer mortality trends in British Columbia, Canada.

PubMed

Branion-Calles, Michael C; Nelson, Trisalyn A; Henderson, Sarah B

2015-11-19

There is no safe concentration of radon gas, but guideline values provide threshold concentrations that are used to map areas at higher risk. These values vary between different regions, countries, and organizations, which can lead to differential classification of risk. For example the World Health Organization suggests a 100 Bq m(-3)value, while Health Canada recommends 200 Bq m(-3). Our objective was to describe how different thresholds characterized ecological radon risk and their visual association with lung cancer mortality trends in British Columbia, Canada. Eight threshold values between 50 and 600 Bq m(-3) were identified, and classes of radon vulnerability were defined based on whether the observed 95(th) percentile radon concentration was above or below each value. A balanced random forest algorithm was used to model vulnerability, and the results were mapped. We compared high vulnerability areas, their estimated populations, and differences in lung cancer mortality trends stratified by smoking prevalence and sex. Classification accuracy improved as the threshold concentrations decreased and the area classified as high vulnerability increased. Majority of the population lived within areas of lower vulnerability regardless of the threshold value. Thresholds as low as 50 Bq m(-3) were associated with higher lung cancer mortality, even in areas with low smoking prevalence. Temporal trends in lung cancer mortality were increasing for women, while decreasing for men. Radon contributes to lung cancer in British Columbia. The results of the study contribute evidence supporting the use of a reference level lower than the current guideline of 200 Bq m(-3) for the province.

Cryptic diversity and discordance in single-locus species delimitation methods within horned lizards (Phrynosomatidae: Phrynosoma).

PubMed

Blair, Christopher; Bryson, Robert W

2017-11-01

Biodiversity reduction and loss continues to progress at an alarming rate, and thus, there is widespread interest in utilizing rapid and efficient methods for quantifying and delimiting taxonomic diversity. Single-locus species delimitation methods have become popular, in part due to the adoption of the DNA barcoding paradigm. These techniques can be broadly classified into tree-based and distance-based methods depending on whether species are delimited based on a constructed genealogy. Although the relative performance of these methods has been tested repeatedly with simulations, additional studies are needed to assess congruence with empirical data. We compiled a large data set of mitochondrial ND4 sequences from horned lizards (Phrynosoma) to elucidate congruence using four tree-based (single-threshold GMYC, multiple-threshold GMYC, bPTP, mPTP) and one distance-based (ABGD) species delimitation models. We were particularly interested in cases with highly uneven sampling and/or large differences in intraspecific diversity. Results showed a high degree of discordance among methods, with multiple-threshold GMYC and bPTP suggesting an unrealistically high number of species (29 and 26 species within the P. douglasii complex alone). The single-threshold GMYC model was the most conservative, likely a result of difficulty in locating the inflection point in the genealogies. mPTP and ABGD appeared to be the most stable across sampling regimes and suggested the presence of additional cryptic species that warrant further investigation. These results suggest that the mPTP model may be preferable in empirical data sets with highly uneven sampling or large differences in effective population sizes of species. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An economic evaluation of maxillary implant overdentures based on six vs. four implants.

PubMed

Listl, Stefan; Fischer, Leonhard; Giannakopoulos, Nikolaos Nikitas

2014-08-18

The purpose of the present study was to assess the value for money achieved by bar-retained implant overdentures based on six implants compared with four implants as treatment alternatives for the edentulous maxilla. A Markov decision tree model was constructed and populated with parameter estimates for implant and denture failure as well as patient-centred health outcomes as available from recent literature. The decision scenario was modelled within a ten year time horizon and relied on cost reimbursement regulations of the German health care system. The cost-effectiveness threshold was identified above which the six-implant solution is preferable over the four-implant solution. Uncertainties regarding input parameters were incorporated via one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis based on Monte-Carlo simulation. Within a base case scenario of average treatment complexity, the cost-effectiveness threshold was identified to be 17,564 € per year of denture satisfaction gained above of which the alternative with six implants is preferable over treatment including four implants. Sensitivity analysis yielded that, depending on the specification of model input parameters such as patients' denture satisfaction, the respective cost-effectiveness threshold varies substantially. The results of the present study suggest that bar-retained maxillary overdentures based on six implants provide better patient satisfaction than bar-retained overdentures based on four implants but are considerably more expensive. Final judgements about value for money require more comprehensive clinical evidence including patient-centred health outcomes.

An economic evaluation of maxillary implant overdentures based on six vs. four implants

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The purpose of the present study was to assess the value for money achieved by bar-retained implant overdentures based on six implants compared with four implants as treatment alternatives for the edentulous maxilla. Methods A Markov decision tree model was constructed and populated with parameter estimates for implant and denture failure as well as patient-centred health outcomes as available from recent literature. The decision scenario was modelled within a ten year time horizon and relied on cost reimbursement regulations of the German health care system. The cost-effectiveness threshold was identified above which the six-implant solution is preferable over the four-implant solution. Uncertainties regarding input parameters were incorporated via one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis based on Monte-Carlo simulation. Results Within a base case scenario of average treatment complexity, the cost-effectiveness threshold was identified to be 17,564 € per year of denture satisfaction gained above of which the alternative with six implants is preferable over treatment including four implants. Sensitivity analysis yielded that, depending on the specification of model input parameters such as patients’ denture satisfaction, the respective cost-effectiveness threshold varies substantially. Conclusions The results of the present study suggest that bar-retained maxillary overdentures based on six implants provide better patient satisfaction than bar-retained overdentures based on four implants but are considerably more expensive. Final judgements about value for money require more comprehensive clinical evidence including patient-centred health outcomes. PMID:25135370

Time Poverty Thresholds and Rates for the US Population

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kalenkoski, Charlene M.; Hamrick, Karen S.; Andrews, Margaret

2011-01-01

Time constraints, like money constraints, affect Americans' well-being. This paper defines what it means to be time poor based on the concepts of necessary and committed time and presents time poverty thresholds and rates for the US population and certain subgroups. Multivariate regression techniques are used to identify the key variables…

Beneficial laggards: multilevel selection, cooperative polymorphism and division of labour in threshold public good games

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background The origin and stability of cooperation is a hot topic in social and behavioural sciences. A complicated conundrum exists as defectors have an advantage over cooperators, whenever cooperation is costly so consequently, not cooperating pays off. In addition, the discovery that humans and some animal populations, such as lions, are polymorphic, where cooperators and defectors stably live together -- while defectors are not being punished--, is even more puzzling. Here we offer a novel explanation based on a Threshold Public Good Game (PGG) that includes the interaction of individual and group level selection, where individuals can contribute to multiple collective actions, in our model group hunting and group defense. Results Our results show that there are polymorphic equilibria in Threshold PGGs; that multi-level selection does not select for the most cooperators per group but selects those close to the optimum number of cooperators (in terms of the Threshold PGG). In particular for medium cost values division of labour evolves within the group with regard to the two types of cooperative actions (hunting vs. defense). Moreover we show evidence that spatial population structure promotes cooperation in multiple PGGs. We also demonstrate that these results apply for a wide range of non-linear benefit function types. Conclusions We demonstrate that cooperation can be stable in Threshold PGG, even when the proportion of so called free riders is high in the population. A fundamentally new mechanism is proposed how laggards, individuals that have a high tendency to defect during one specific group action can actually contribute to the fitness of the group, by playing part in an optimal resource allocation in Threshold Public Good Games. In general, our results show that acknowledging a multilevel selection process will open up novel explanations for collective actions. PMID:21044340

Sexually transmitted infections and the marriage problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bouzat, Sebastián; Zanette, Damián H.

2009-08-01

We study an SIS epidemiological model for a sexually transmitted infection in a monogamous population where the formation and breaking of couples is governed by individual preferences. The mechanism of couple recombination is based on the so-called bar dynamics for the marriage problem. We compare the results with those of random recombination - where no individual preferences exist - for which we calculate analytically the infection incidence and the endemic threshold. We find that individual preferences give rise to a large dispersion in the average duration of different couples, causing substantial changes in the incidence of the infection and in the endemic threshold. Our analysis yields also new results on the bar dynamics, that may be of interest beyond the field of epidemiological models.

When does ecological sustainability ensure economic sustainability? An integrated analysis of thresholds in semi-arid western rangelands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cobourn, K. M.; Peckham, S. D.

2011-12-01

The vulnerability of agri-environmental systems to ecological threshold events depends on the combined influence of economic factors and natural drivers, such as climate and disturbance. This analysis builds an integrated ecologic-economic model to evaluate the behavioral response of agricultural producers to changing and uncertain natural conditions. The model explicitly reflects the effect of producer behavior on the likelihood of a threshold event that threatens the ecological and/or economic sustainability of the agri-environmental system. The foundation of the analysis is a threshold indicator that incorporates the population dynamics of a species that supports economic production and an episodic disturbance regime-in this case rangeland grass that is grazed by livestock and is subject to wildfire. This ecological indicator is integrated into an economic model in which producers choose grazing intensity given the state of the grass population and a set of economic parameters. We examine two model variants that characterize differing economic circumstances. The first characterizes the optimal grazing regime assuming that the system is managed by a single planner whose objective is to maximize the aggregate long-run returns of producers in the system. The second examines the case in which individual producers choose their own stocking rates in order to maximize their private economic benefit. The results from the first model variant illustrate the difference between an ecologic and an economic threshold. Failure to cross an ecological threshold does not necessarily ensure that the system remains economically viable: Economic sustainability, defined as the ability of the system to support optimal production into the infinite future, requires that the net growth rate of the supporting population exceeds the level required for ecological sustainability by an amount that depends on the market price of livestock and grazing efficiency. The results from the second model variant define the circumstances under which a system that is otherwise ecologically sustainable is driven over a threshold by the actions of economic agents. The difference between the two model solutions identifies bounds between which the viability of livestock production over the long-run is uncertain and depends upon the policy setting in which the agri-environmental system operates.

Cost-effectiveness of Population Screening for BRCA Mutations in Ashkenazi Jewish Women Compared With Family History–Based Testing

PubMed Central

Manchanda, Ranjit; Legood, Rosa; Burnell, Matthew; McGuire, Alistair; Raikou, Maria; Loggenberg, Kelly; Wardle, Jane; Sanderson, Saskia; Gessler, Sue; Side, Lucy; Balogun, Nyala; Desai, Rakshit; Kumar, Ajith; Dorkins, Huw; Wallis, Yvonne; Chapman, Cyril; Taylor, Rohan; Jacobs, Chris; Tomlinson, Ian; Beller, Uziel; Menon, Usha

2015-01-01

Background: Population-based testing for BRCA1/2 mutations detects the high proportion of carriers not identified by cancer family history (FH)–based testing. We compared the cost-effectiveness of population-based BRCA testing with the standard FH-based approach in Ashkenazi Jewish (AJ) women. Methods: A decision-analytic model was developed to compare lifetime costs and effects amongst AJ women in the UK of BRCA founder-mutation testing amongst: 1) all women in the population age 30 years or older and 2) just those with a strong FH (≥10% mutation risk). The model assumes that BRCA carriers are offered risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy and annual MRI/mammography screening or risk-reducing mastectomy. Model probabilities utilize the Genetic Cancer Prediction through Population Screening trial/published literature to estimate total costs, effects in terms of quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), cancer incidence, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER), and population impact. Costs are reported at 2010 prices. Costs/outcomes were discounted at 3.5%. We used deterministic/probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) to evaluate model uncertainty. Results: Compared with FH-based testing, population-screening saved 0.090 more life-years and 0.101 more QALYs resulting in 33 days’ gain in life expectancy. Population screening was found to be cost saving with a baseline-discounted ICER of -£2079/QALY. Population-based screening lowered ovarian and breast cancer incidence by 0.34% and 0.62%. Assuming 71% testing uptake, this leads to 276 fewer ovarian and 508 fewer breast cancer cases. Overall, reduction in treatment costs led to a discounted cost savings of £3.7 million. Deterministic sensitivity analysis and 94% of simulations on PSA (threshold £20000) indicated that population screening is cost-effective, compared with current NHS policy. Conclusion: Population-based screening for BRCA mutations is highly cost-effective compared with an FH-based approach in AJ women age 30 years and older. PMID:25435542

Population Dynamics of Belonolaimus longicaudatusin a Cotton Production System

PubMed Central

Crow, W. T.; Weingartner, D. P.; McSorley, R.; Dickson, D. W.

2000-01-01

Belonolaimus longicaudatus is a recognized pathogen of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum), but insufficient information is available on the population dynamics and economic thresholds of B. longicaudatus in cotton production. In this study, data collected from a field in Florida were used to develop models predicting population increases of B. longicaudatus on cotton and population declines under clean fallow. Population densities of B. longicaudatus increased on cotton, reaching a carrying capacity of 139 nematodes/130 cm³ of soil, but decreased exponentially during periods of bare fallow. The model indicated that population densities should decrease each year of monocropped cotton, if an alternate host is not present between sequential cotton crops. Economic thresholds derived from published damage functions and current prices for cotton and nematicides varied from 2 to 5 B. longicaudatus/130 cm³ of soil, depending on the nematicide used. PMID:19270968

The Neural Substrate for Binaural Masking Level Differences in the Auditory Cortex

PubMed Central

Gilbert, Heather J.; Krumbholz, Katrin; Palmer, Alan R.

2015-01-01

The binaural masking level difference (BMLD) is a phenomenon whereby a signal that is identical at each ear (S0), masked by a noise that is identical at each ear (N0), can be made 12–15 dB more detectable by inverting the waveform of either the tone or noise at one ear (Sπ, Nπ). Single-cell responses to BMLD stimuli were measured in the primary auditory cortex of urethane-anesthetized guinea pigs. Firing rate was measured as a function of signal level of a 500 Hz pure tone masked by low-passed white noise. Responses were similar to those reported in the inferior colliculus. At low signal levels, the response was dominated by the masker. At higher signal levels, firing rate either increased or decreased. Detection thresholds for each neuron were determined using signal detection theory. Few neurons yielded measurable detection thresholds for all stimulus conditions, with a wide range in thresholds. However, across the entire population, the lowest thresholds were consistent with human psychophysical BMLDs. As in the inferior colliculus, the shape of the firing-rate versus signal-level functions depended on the neurons' selectivity for interaural time difference. Our results suggest that, in cortex, BMLD signals are detected from increases or decreases in the firing rate, consistent with predictions of cross-correlation models of binaural processing and that the psychophysical detection threshold is based on the lowest neural thresholds across the population. PMID:25568115

Empirical estimation of genome-wide significance thresholds based on the 1000 Genomes Project data set.

PubMed

Kanai, Masahiro; Tanaka, Toshihiro; Okada, Yukinori

2016-10-01

To assess the statistical significance of associations between variants and traits, genome-wide association studies (GWAS) should employ an appropriate threshold that accounts for the massive burden of multiple testing in the study. Although most studies in the current literature commonly set a genome-wide significance threshold at the level of P=5.0 × 10 -8 , the adequacy of this value for respective populations has not been fully investigated. To empirically estimate thresholds for different ancestral populations, we conducted GWAS simulations using the 1000 Genomes Phase 3 data set for Africans (AFR), Europeans (EUR), Admixed Americans (AMR), East Asians (EAS) and South Asians (SAS). The estimated empirical genome-wide significance thresholds were P sig =3.24 × 10 -8 (AFR), 9.26 × 10 -8 (EUR), 1.83 × 10 -7 (AMR), 1.61 × 10 -7 (EAS) and 9.46 × 10 -8 (SAS). We additionally conducted trans-ethnic meta-analyses across all populations (ALL) and all populations except for AFR (ΔAFR), which yielded P sig =3.25 × 10 -8 (ALL) and 4.20 × 10 -8 (ΔAFR). Our results indicate that the current threshold (P=5.0 × 10 -8 ) is overly stringent for all ancestral populations except for Africans; however, we should employ a more stringent threshold when conducting a meta-analysis, regardless of the presence of African samples.

Shot noise perturbations and mean first passage times between stable states.

PubMed

Drury, Kevin L S

2007-08-01

Predicting crossings between stable states is a central issue in population biology. Crossings from low-density to high-density equilibria are often associated with pest outbreaks, while the opposite crossings are often associated with population collapse of harvested species. Here I use a simple, bistable model to demonstrate a technique for estimating mean first passage times (MFPT) of thresholds, including boundaries between stable equilibria. The approach is based on stochastic "shot-noise" perturbations to the population and the MFPTs compare favorably with mean crossing times from Monte Carlo numerical solutions of the stochastically perturbed model. This agreement suggests that MFPT approximations can be used to quantify expected effects of species manipulations, whether the goal is pest control or sustainable harvest.

Bioclimatic Thresholds, Thermal Constants and Survival of Mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) in Response to Constant Temperatures on Hibiscus

PubMed Central

Sreedevi, Gudapati; Prasad, Yenumula Gerard; Prabhakar, Mathyam; Rao, Gubbala Ramachandra; Vennila, Sengottaiyan; Venkateswarlu, Bandi

2013-01-01

Temperature-driven development and survival rates of the mealybug, Phenacoccussolenopsis Tinsley (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) were examined at nine constant temperatures (15, 20, 25, 27, 30, 32, 35 and 40°C) on hibiscus ( Hibiscus rosa -sinensis L.). Crawlers successfully completed development to adult stage between 15 and 35°C, although their survival was affected at low temperatures. Two linear and four nonlinear models were fitted to describe developmental rates of P . solenopsis as a function of temperature, and for estimating thermal constants and bioclimatic thresholds (lower, optimum and upper temperature thresholds for development: Tmin, Topt and Tmax, respectively). Estimated thresholds between the two linear models were statistically similar. Ikemoto and Takai’s linear model permitted testing the equivalence of lower developmental thresholds for life stages of P . solenopsis reared on two hosts, hibiscus and cotton. Thermal constants required for completion of cumulative development of female and male nymphs and for the whole generation were significantly lower on hibiscus (222.2, 237.0, 308.6 degree-days, respectively) compared to cotton. Three nonlinear models performed better in describing the developmental rate for immature instars and cumulative life stages of female and male and for generation based on goodness-of-fit criteria. The simplified β type distribution function estimated Topt values closer to the observed maximum rates. Thermodynamic SSI model indicated no significant differences in the intrinsic optimum temperature estimates for different geographical populations of P . solenopsis . The estimated bioclimatic thresholds and the observed survival rates of P . solenopsis indicate the species to be high-temperature adaptive, and explained the field abundance of P . solenopsis on its host plants. PMID:24086597

Length-Based Assessment of Coral Reef Fish Populations in the Main and Northwestern Hawaiian Islands

PubMed Central

Nadon, Marc O.; Ault, Jerald S.; Williams, Ivor D.; Smith, Steven G.; DiNardo, Gerard T.

2015-01-01

The coral reef fish community of Hawaii is composed of hundreds of species, supports a multimillion dollar fishing and tourism industry, and is of great cultural importance to the local population. However, a major stock assessment of Hawaiian coral reef fish populations has not yet been conducted. Here we used the robust indicator variable “average length in the exploited phase of the population (L¯)”, estimated from size composition data from commercial fisheries trip reports and fishery-independent diver surveys, to evaluate exploitation rates for 19 Hawaiian reef fishes. By and large, the average lengths obtained from diver surveys agreed well with those from commercial data. We used the estimated exploitation rates coupled with life history parameters synthesized from the literature to parameterize a numerical population model and generate stock sustainability metrics such as spawning potential ratios (SPR). We found good agreement between predicted average lengths in an unfished population (from our population model) and those observed from diver surveys in the largely unexploited Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Of 19 exploited reef fish species assessed in the main Hawaiian Islands, 9 had SPRs close to or below the 30% overfishing threshold. In general, longer-lived species such as surgeonfishes, the redlip parrotfish (Scarus rubroviolaceus), and the gray snapper (Aprion virescens) had the lowest SPRs, while short-lived species such as goatfishes and jacks, as well as two invasive species (Lutjanus kasmira and Cephalopholis argus), had SPRs above the 30% threshold. PMID:26267473

The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT): Exploring the Factor Structure and Cutoff Thresholds in a Representative Post-Conflict Population in Northern Uganda.

PubMed

Blair, Alden Hooper; Pearce, Margo Ellen; Katamba, Achilles; Malamba, Samuel S; Muyinda, Herbert; Schechter, Martin T; Spittal, Patricia M

2017-05-01

Despite increased use of the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) in sub-Saharan Africa, few studies have assessed its underlying conceptual framework, and none have done so in post-conflict settings. Further, significant inconsistencies exist between definitions used for problematic consumption. Such is the case in Uganda, facing one of the highest per-capita alcohol consumption levels regionally, which is thought to be hindering rebuilding in the North after two decades of civil war. This study explores the impact of varying designation cutoff thresholds in the AUDIT as well as its conceptual factor structure in a representative sample of the population. In all, 1720 Cango Lyec Project participants completed socio-economic and mental health questionnaires, provided blood samples and took the AUDIT. Participant characteristics and consumption designations were compared at AUDIT summary score thresholds of ≥3, ≥5 and ≥8. Confirmatory factor analyses (CFA) explored one-, two- and three-factor level models overall and by sex with relative and absolute fit indicators. There were no significant differences in participant demographic characteristics between thresholds. At higher cutoffs, the test increased in specificity to identify those with hazardous drinking, disordered drinking and suffering from alcohol-related harms. All conceptual models indicated good fit, with three-factor models superior overall and within both sexes. In Northern Uganda, a three-factor AUDIT model best explores alcohol use in the population and is appropriate for use in both sexes. Lower cutoff thresholds are recommended to identify those with potentially disordered drinking to best plan effective interventions and treatments. A CFA of the AUDIT showed good fit for one-, two, and three-factor models overall and by sex in a representative sample in post-conflict Northern Uganda. A three-plus total AUDIT cutoff score is suggested to screen for hazardous drinking in this or similar populations. © The Author 2016. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Second look at the spread of epidemics on networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kenah, Eben; Robins, James M.

2007-09-01

In an important paper, Newman [Phys. Rev. E66, 016128 (2002)] claimed that a general network-based stochastic Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) epidemic model is isomorphic to a bond percolation model, where the bonds are the edges of the contact network and the bond occupation probability is equal to the marginal probability of transmission from an infected node to a susceptible neighbor. In this paper, we show that this isomorphism is incorrect and define a semidirected random network we call the epidemic percolation network that is exactly isomorphic to the SIR epidemic model in any finite population. In the limit of a large population, (i) the distribution of (self-limited) outbreak sizes is identical to the size distribution of (small) out-components, (ii) the epidemic threshold corresponds to the phase transition where a giant strongly connected component appears, (iii) the probability of a large epidemic is equal to the probability that an initial infection occurs in the giant in-component, and (iv) the relative final size of an epidemic is equal to the proportion of the network contained in the giant out-component. For the SIR model considered by Newman, we show that the epidemic percolation network predicts the same mean outbreak size below the epidemic threshold, the same epidemic threshold, and the same final size of an epidemic as the bond percolation model. However, the bond percolation model fails to predict the correct outbreak size distribution and probability of an epidemic when there is a nondegenerate infectious period distribution. We confirm our findings by comparing predictions from percolation networks and bond percolation models to the results of simulations. In the Appendix, we show that an isomorphism to an epidemic percolation network can be defined for any time-homogeneous stochastic SIR model.

Critical thresholds for eventual extinction in randomly disturbed population growth models.

PubMed

Peckham, Scott D; Waymire, Edward C; De Leenheer, Patrick

2018-02-16

This paper considers several single species growth models featuring a carrying capacity, which are subject to random disturbances that lead to instantaneous population reduction at the disturbance times. This is motivated in part by growing concerns about the impacts of climate change. Our main goal is to understand whether or not the species can persist in the long run. We consider the discrete-time stochastic process obtained by sampling the system immediately after the disturbances, and find various thresholds for several modes of convergence of this discrete process, including thresholds for the absence or existence of a positively supported invariant distribution. These thresholds are given explicitly in terms of the intensity and frequency of the disturbances on the one hand, and the population's growth characteristics on the other. We also perform a similar threshold analysis for the original continuous-time stochastic process, and obtain a formula that allows us to express the invariant distribution for this continuous-time process in terms of the invariant distribution of the discrete-time process, and vice versa. Examples illustrate that these distributions can differ, and this sends a cautionary message to practitioners who wish to parameterize these and related models using field data. Our analysis relies heavily on a particular feature shared by all the deterministic growth models considered here, namely that their solutions exhibit an exponentially weighted averaging property between a function of the initial condition, and the same function applied to the carrying capacity. This property is due to the fact that these systems can be transformed into affine systems.

Identifying humanitarian crises in population surveillance field sites: simple procedures and ethical imperatives.

PubMed

Fottrell, E; Byass, P

2009-02-01

Effective early warning systems of humanitarian crises may help to avert substantial increases in mortality and morbidity, and prevent major population movements. The Butajira Rural Health Programme (BRHP) in Ethiopia has maintained a programme of epidemiological surveillance since 1987. Inspection of the BRHP data revealed large peaks of mortality in 1998 and 1999, well in excess of the normally observed year-to-year variation. Further investigation and enquiry revealed that these peaks related to a measles epidemic, and a serious episode of drought and consequent food insecurity that went undetected by the BRHP. This paper applies international humanitarian crisis threshold definitions to the BRHP data in an attempt to identify suitable mortality thresholds that may be used for the prospective detection of humanitarian crises in population surveillance sites in developing countries. Empirical investigation using secondary analysis of longitudinal population-based cohort data. The daily, weekly and monthly thresholds for crises in Butajira were applied to mortality data for the 5-year period incorporating the crisis periods of 1998-1999. Days, weeks and months in which mortality exceeded each threshold level were identified. Each threshold level was assessed in terms of prospectively identifying the true crisis periods in a timely manner whilst avoiding false alarms. The daily threshold definition is too sensitive to accurately detect impending or real crises in the population surveillance setting of the BRHP. However, the weekly threshold level is useful in identifying important increases in mortality in a timely manner without the excessive sensitivity of the daily threshold. The weekly threshold level detects the crisis periods approximately 2 weeks before the monthly threshold level. Mortality measures are highly specific indicators of the health status of populations, and simple procedures can be used to apply international crisis threshold definitions in population surveillance settings for the prospective detection of important changes in mortality rate. Standards for the timely use of surveillance data and ethical responsibilities of those responsible for the data should be made explicit to improve the public health functioning of current sentinel surveillance methodologies.

Modelling interactions of toxicants and density dependence in wildlife populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schipper, Aafke M.; Hendriks, Harrie W.M.; Kauffman, Matthew J.; Hendriks, A. Jan; Huijbregts, Mark A.J.

2013-01-01

1. A major challenge in the conservation of threatened and endangered species is to predict population decline and design appropriate recovery measures. However, anthropogenic impacts on wildlife populations are notoriously difficult to predict due to potentially nonlinear responses and interactions with natural ecological processes like density dependence. 2. Here, we incorporated both density dependence and anthropogenic stressors in a stage-based matrix population model and parameterized it for a density-dependent population of peregrine falcons Falco peregrinus exposed to two anthropogenic toxicants [dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs)]. Log-logistic exposure–response relationships were used to translate toxicant concentrations in peregrine falcon eggs to effects on fecundity. Density dependence was modelled as the probability of a nonbreeding bird acquiring a breeding territory as a function of the current number of breeders. 3. The equilibrium size of the population, as represented by the number of breeders, responded nonlinearly to increasing toxicant concentrations, showing a gradual decrease followed by a relatively steep decline. Initially, toxicant-induced reductions in population size were mitigated by an alleviation of the density limitation, that is, an increasing probability of territory acquisition. Once population density was no longer limiting, the toxicant impacts were no longer buffered by an increasing proportion of nonbreeders shifting to the breeding stage, resulting in a strong decrease in the equilibrium number of breeders. 4. Median critical exposure concentrations, that is, median toxicant concentrations in eggs corresponding with an equilibrium population size of zero, were 33 and 46 μg g−1 fresh weight for DDE and PBDEs, respectively. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our modelling results showed that particular life stages of a density-limited population may be relatively insensitive to toxicant impacts until a critical threshold is crossed. In our study population, toxicant-induced changes were observed in the equilibrium number of nonbreeding rather than breeding birds, suggesting that monitoring efforts including both life stages are needed to timely detect population declines. Further, by combining quantitative exposure–response relationships with a wildlife demographic model, we provided a method to quantify critical toxicant thresholds for wildlife population persistence.

Influence of network dynamics on the spread of sexually transmitted diseases.

PubMed

Risau-Gusman, Sebastián

2012-06-07

Network epidemiology often assumes that the relationships defining the social network of a population are static. The dynamics of relationships is only taken indirectly into account by assuming that the relevant information to study epidemic spread is encoded in the network obtained, by considering numbers of partners accumulated over periods of time roughly proportional to the infectious period of the disease. On the other hand, models explicitly including social dynamics are often too schematic to provide a reasonable representation of a real population, or so detailed that no general conclusions can be drawn from them. Here, we present a model of social dynamics that is general enough so its parameters can be obtained by fitting data from surveys about sexual behaviour, but that can still be studied analytically, using mean-field techniques. This allows us to obtain some general results about epidemic spreading. We show that using accumulated network data to estimate the static epidemic threshold lead to a significant underestimation of that threshold. We also show that, for a dynamic network, the relative epidemic threshold is an increasing function of the infectious period of the disease, implying that the static value is a lower bound to the real threshold. A practical example is given of how to apply the model to the study of a real population.

Influence of network dynamics on the spread of sexually transmitted diseases

PubMed Central

Risau-Gusman, Sebastián

2012-01-01

Network epidemiology often assumes that the relationships defining the social network of a population are static. The dynamics of relationships is only taken indirectly into account by assuming that the relevant information to study epidemic spread is encoded in the network obtained, by considering numbers of partners accumulated over periods of time roughly proportional to the infectious period of the disease. On the other hand, models explicitly including social dynamics are often too schematic to provide a reasonable representation of a real population, or so detailed that no general conclusions can be drawn from them. Here, we present a model of social dynamics that is general enough so its parameters can be obtained by fitting data from surveys about sexual behaviour, but that can still be studied analytically, using mean-field techniques. This allows us to obtain some general results about epidemic spreading. We show that using accumulated network data to estimate the static epidemic threshold lead to a significant underestimation of that threshold. We also show that, for a dynamic network, the relative epidemic threshold is an increasing function of the infectious period of the disease, implying that the static value is a lower bound to the real threshold. A practical example is given of how to apply the model to the study of a real population. PMID:22112655

Quantifying Population-Level Risks Using an Individual-Based Model: Sea Otters, Harlequin Ducks, and the Exxon Valdez Oil Spill

PubMed Central

Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Parker, Keith R

2012-01-01

Ecological risk assessments need to advance beyond evaluating risks to individuals that are largely based on toxicity studies conducted on a few species under laboratory conditions, to assessing population-level risks to the environment, including considerations of variability and uncertainty. Two individual-based models (IBMs), recently developed to assess current risks to sea otters and seaducks in Prince William Sound more than 2 decades after the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), are used to explore population-level risks. In each case, the models had previously shown that there were essentially no remaining risks to individuals from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) derived from the EVOS. New sensitivity analyses are reported here in which hypothetical environmental exposures to PAHs were heuristically increased until assimilated doses reached toxicity reference values (TRVs) derived at the no-observed-adverse-effects and lowest-observed-adverse-effects levels (NOAEL and LOAEL, respectively). For the sea otters, this was accomplished by artificially increasing the number of sea otter pits that would intersect remaining patches of subsurface oil residues by orders of magnitude over actual estimated rates. Similarly, in the seaduck assessment, the PAH concentrations in the constituents of diet, sediments, and seawater were increased in proportion to their relative contributions to the assimilated doses by orders of magnitude over measured environmental concentrations, to reach the NOAEL and LOAEL thresholds. The stochastic IBMs simulated millions of individuals. From these outputs, frequency distributions were derived of assimilated doses for populations of 500 000 sea otters or seaducks in each of 7 or 8 classes, respectively. Doses to several selected quantiles were analyzed, ranging from the 1-in-1000th most-exposed individuals (99.9% quantile) to the median-exposed individuals (50% quantile). The resulting families of quantile curves provide the basis for characterizing the environmental thresholds below which no population-level effects could be detected and above which population-level effects would be expected to become manifest. This approach provides risk managers an enhanced understanding of the risks to populations under various conditions and assumptions, whether under hypothetically increased exposure regimes, as demonstrated here, or in situations in which actual exposures are near toxic effects levels. This study shows that individual-based models are especially amenable and appropriate for conducting population-level risk assessments, and that they can readily be used to answer questions about the risks to individuals and populations across a variety of exposure conditions. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2012; 8: 503–522. © 2012 SETAC PMID:22275071

Quantifying population-level risks using an individual-based model: sea otters, Harlequin Ducks, and the Exxon Valdez oil spill.

PubMed

Harwell, Mark A; Gentile, John H; Parker, Keith R

2012-07-01

Ecological risk assessments need to advance beyond evaluating risks to individuals that are largely based on toxicity studies conducted on a few species under laboratory conditions, to assessing population-level risks to the environment, including considerations of variability and uncertainty. Two individual-based models (IBMs), recently developed to assess current risks to sea otters and seaducks in Prince William Sound more than 2 decades after the Exxon Valdez oil spill (EVOS), are used to explore population-level risks. In each case, the models had previously shown that there were essentially no remaining risks to individuals from polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) derived from the EVOS. New sensitivity analyses are reported here in which hypothetical environmental exposures to PAHs were heuristically increased until assimilated doses reached toxicity reference values (TRVs) derived at the no-observed-adverse-effects and lowest-observed-adverse-effects levels (NOAEL and LOAEL, respectively). For the sea otters, this was accomplished by artificially increasing the number of sea otter pits that would intersect remaining patches of subsurface oil residues by orders of magnitude over actual estimated rates. Similarly, in the seaduck assessment, the PAH concentrations in the constituents of diet, sediments, and seawater were increased in proportion to their relative contributions to the assimilated doses by orders of magnitude over measured environmental concentrations, to reach the NOAEL and LOAEL thresholds. The stochastic IBMs simulated millions of individuals. From these outputs, frequency distributions were derived of assimilated doses for populations of 500,000 sea otters or seaducks in each of 7 or 8 classes, respectively. Doses to several selected quantiles were analyzed, ranging from the 1-in-1000th most-exposed individuals (99.9% quantile) to the median-exposed individuals (50% quantile). The resulting families of quantile curves provide the basis for characterizing the environmental thresholds below which no population-level effects could be detected and above which population-level effects would be expected to become manifest. This approach provides risk managers an enhanced understanding of the risks to populations under various conditions and assumptions, whether under hypothetically increased exposure regimes, as demonstrated here, or in situations in which actual exposures are near toxic effects levels. This study shows that individual-based models are especially amenable and appropriate for conducting population-level risk assessments, and that they can readily be used to answer questions about the risks to individuals and populations across a variety of exposure conditions. Copyright © 2012 SETAC.

Optimal control of population recovery--the role of economic restoration threshold.

PubMed

Lampert, Adam; Hastings, Alan

2014-01-01

A variety of ecological systems around the world have been damaged in recent years, either by natural factors such as invasive species, storms and global change or by direct human activities such as overfishing and water pollution. Restoration of these systems to provide ecosystem services entails significant economic benefits. Thus, choosing how and when to restore in an optimal fashion is important, but has not been well studied. Here we examine a general model where population growth can be induced or accelerated by investing in active restoration. We show that the most cost-effective method to restore an ecosystem dictates investment until the population approaches an 'economic restoration threshold', a density above which the ecosystem should be left to recover naturally. Therefore, determining this threshold is a key general approach for guiding efficient restoration management, and we demonstrate how to calculate this threshold for both deterministic and stochastic ecosystems. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

Dynamic energy budget as a basis to model population-level effects of zinc-spiked sediments in the gastropod Valvata piscinalis.

PubMed

Ducrot, Virginie; Péry, Alexandre R R; Mons, Raphaël; Quéau, Hervé; Charles, Sandrine; Garric, Jeanne

2007-08-01

This paper presents original toxicity test designs and mathematical models that may be used to assess the deleterious effects of toxicants on Valvata piscinalis (Mollusca, Gastropoda). Results obtained for zinc, used as a reference toxicant, are presented. The feeding behavior, juvenile survival, growth, age at puberty, onset of reproduction, number of breedings during the life cycle, and fecundity were significantly altered when the snails were exposed to zinc-spiked sediments. Dynamic energy budget models (DEBtox) adequately predicted the effects of zinc on the V. piscinalis life cycle. They also provided estimates for lifecycle parameters that were used to parameterize a demographic model, based on a Z-transformed life-cycle graph. The effect threshold for the population growth rate (lambda) was estimated at 259 mg/kg dry sediment of zinc, showing that significant changes in abundance may occur at environmental concentrations. Significant effects occurring just above this threshold value were mainly caused by the severe impairment of reproductive endpoints. Sensitivity analysis showed that the value of lambda depended mainly on the juvenile survival rate. The impairment of this latter parameter may result in extinction of V. piscinalis. Finally, the present study highlights advantages of the proposed modeling approach in V. piscinalis and possible transfer to other test species and contaminants.

Threshold Dynamics of a Temperature-Dependent Stage-Structured Mosquito Population Model with Nested Delays.

PubMed

Wang, Xiunan; Zou, Xingfu

2018-05-21

Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.

Recognition ROCS Are Curvilinear--Or Are They? On Premature Arguments against the Two-High-Threshold Model of Recognition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Broder, Arndt; Schutz, Julia

2009-01-01

Recent reviews of recognition receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) claim that their curvilinear shape rules out threshold models of recognition. However, the shape of ROCs based on confidence ratings is not diagnostic to refute threshold models, whereas ROCs based on experimental bias manipulations are. Also, fitting predicted frequencies to…

Error propagation in energetic carrying capacity models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pearse, Aaron T.; Stafford, Joshua D.

2014-01-01

Conservation objectives derived from carrying capacity models have been used to inform management of landscapes for wildlife populations. Energetic carrying capacity models are particularly useful in conservation planning for wildlife; these models use estimates of food abundance and energetic requirements of wildlife to target conservation actions. We provide a general method for incorporating a foraging threshold (i.e., density of food at which foraging becomes unprofitable) when estimating food availability with energetic carrying capacity models. We use a hypothetical example to describe how past methods for adjustment of foraging thresholds biased results of energetic carrying capacity models in certain instances. Adjusting foraging thresholds at the patch level of the species of interest provides results consistent with ecological foraging theory. Presentation of two case studies suggest variation in bias which, in certain instances, created large errors in conservation objectives and may have led to inefficient allocation of limited resources. Our results also illustrate how small errors or biases in application of input parameters, when extrapolated to large spatial extents, propagate errors in conservation planning and can have negative implications for target populations.

Modelling the impact of altered axonal morphometry on the response of regenerative nervous tissue to electrical stimulation through macro-sieve electrodes.

PubMed

Zellmer, Erik R; MacEwan, Matthew R; Moran, Daniel W

2018-04-01

Regenerated peripheral nervous tissue possesses different morphometric properties compared to undisrupted nerve. It is poorly understood how these morphometric differences alter the response of the regenerated nerve to electrical stimulation. In this work, we use computational modeling to explore the electrophysiological response of regenerated and undisrupted nerve axons to electrical stimulation delivered by macro-sieve electrodes (MSEs). A 3D finite element model of a peripheral nerve segment populated with mammalian myelinated axons and implanted with a macro-sieve electrode has been developed. Fiber diameters and morphometric characteristics representative of undisrupted or regenerated peripheral nervous tissue were assigned to core conductor models to simulate the two tissue types. Simulations were carried out to quantify differences in thresholds and chronaxie between undisrupted and regenerated fiber populations. The model was also used to determine the influence of axonal caliber on recruitment thresholds for the two tissue types. Model accuracy was assessed through comparisons with in vivo recruitment data from chronically implanted MSEs. Recruitment thresholds of individual regenerated fibers with diameters  >2 µm were found to be lower compared to same caliber undisrupted fibers at electrode to fiber distances of less than about 90-140 µm but roughly equal or higher for larger distances. Caliber redistributions observed in regenerated nerve resulted in an overall increase in average recruitment thresholds and chronaxie during whole nerve stimulation. Modeling results also suggest that large diameter undisrupted fibers located close to a longitudinally restricted current source such as the MSE have higher average recruitment thresholds compared to small diameter fibers. In contrast, large diameter regenerated nerve fibers located in close proximity of MSE sites have, on average, lower recruitment thresholds compared to small fibers. Utilizing regenerated fiber morphometry and caliber distributions resulted in accurate predictions of in vivo recruitment data. Our work uses computational modeling to show how morphometric differences between regenerated and undisrupted tissue results in recruitment threshold discrepancies, quantifies these differences, and illustrates how large undisrupted nerve fibers close to longitudinally restricted current sources have higher recruitment thresholds compared to adjacently positioned smaller fibers while the opposite is true for large regenerated fibers.

Modelling the impact of altered axonal morphometry on the response of regenerative nervous tissue to electrical stimulation through macro-sieve electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zellmer, Erik R.; MacEwan, Matthew R.; Moran, Daniel W.

2018-04-01

Objective. Regenerated peripheral nervous tissue possesses different morphometric properties compared to undisrupted nerve. It is poorly understood how these morphometric differences alter the response of the regenerated nerve to electrical stimulation. In this work, we use computational modeling to explore the electrophysiological response of regenerated and undisrupted nerve axons to electrical stimulation delivered by macro-sieve electrodes (MSEs). Approach. A 3D finite element model of a peripheral nerve segment populated with mammalian myelinated axons and implanted with a macro-sieve electrode has been developed. Fiber diameters and morphometric characteristics representative of undisrupted or regenerated peripheral nervous tissue were assigned to core conductor models to simulate the two tissue types. Simulations were carried out to quantify differences in thresholds and chronaxie between undisrupted and regenerated fiber populations. The model was also used to determine the influence of axonal caliber on recruitment thresholds for the two tissue types. Model accuracy was assessed through comparisons with in vivo recruitment data from chronically implanted MSEs. Main results. Recruitment thresholds of individual regenerated fibers with diameters  >2 µm were found to be lower compared to same caliber undisrupted fibers at electrode to fiber distances of less than about 90-140 µm but roughly equal or higher for larger distances. Caliber redistributions observed in regenerated nerve resulted in an overall increase in average recruitment thresholds and chronaxie during whole nerve stimulation. Modeling results also suggest that large diameter undisrupted fibers located close to a longitudinally restricted current source such as the MSE have higher average recruitment thresholds compared to small diameter fibers. In contrast, large diameter regenerated nerve fibers located in close proximity of MSE sites have, on average, lower recruitment thresholds compared to small fibers. Utilizing regenerated fiber morphometry and caliber distributions resulted in accurate predictions of in vivo recruitment data. Significance. Our work uses computational modeling to show how morphometric differences between regenerated and undisrupted tissue results in recruitment threshold discrepancies, quantifies these differences, and illustrates how large undisrupted nerve fibers close to longitudinally restricted current sources have higher recruitment thresholds compared to adjacently positioned smaller fibers while the opposite is true for large regenerated fibers.

Analysis of the Spatial Organization of Pastures as a Contact Network, Implications for Potential Disease Spread and Biosecurity in Livestock, France, 2010.

PubMed

Palisson, Aurore; Courcoul, Aurélie; Durand, Benoit

2017-01-01

The use of pastures is part of common herd management practices for livestock animals, but contagion between animals located on neighbouring pastures is one of the major modes of infectious disease transmission between herds. At the population level, this transmission is strongly constrained by the spatial organization of pastures. The aim of this study was to answer two questions: (i) is the spatial configuration of pastures favourable to the spread of infectious diseases in France? (ii) would biosecurity measures allow decreasing this vulnerability? Based on GIS data, the spatial organization of pastures was represented using networks. Nodes were the 3,159,787 pastures reported in 2010 by the French breeders to claim the Common Agricultural Policy subsidies. Links connected pastures when the distance between them was below a predefined threshold. Premises networks were obtained by aggregating into a single node all the pastures under the same ownership. Although the pastures network was very fragmented when the distance threshold was short (1.5 meters, relevant for a directly-transmitted disease), it was not the case when the distance threshold was larger (500 m, relevant for a vector-borne disease: 97% of the nodes in the largest connected component). The premises network was highly connected as the largest connected component always included more than 83% of the nodes, whatever the distance threshold. Percolation analyses were performed to model the population-level efficacy of biosecurity measures. Percolation thresholds varied according to the modelled biosecurity measures and to the distance threshold. They were globally high (e.g. >17% of nodes had to be removed, mimicking the confinement of animals inside farm buildings, to obtain the disappearance of the large connected component). The network of pastures thus appeared vulnerable to the spread of diseases in France. Only a large acceptance of biosecurity measures by breeders would allow reducing this structural risk.

Analysis of the Spatial Organization of Pastures as a Contact Network, Implications for Potential Disease Spread and Biosecurity in Livestock, France, 2010

PubMed Central

Palisson, Aurore; Courcoul, Aurélie; Durand, Benoit

2017-01-01

The use of pastures is part of common herd management practices for livestock animals, but contagion between animals located on neighbouring pastures is one of the major modes of infectious disease transmission between herds. At the population level, this transmission is strongly constrained by the spatial organization of pastures. The aim of this study was to answer two questions: (i) is the spatial configuration of pastures favourable to the spread of infectious diseases in France? (ii) would biosecurity measures allow decreasing this vulnerability? Based on GIS data, the spatial organization of pastures was represented using networks. Nodes were the 3,159,787 pastures reported in 2010 by the French breeders to claim the Common Agricultural Policy subsidies. Links connected pastures when the distance between them was below a predefined threshold. Premises networks were obtained by aggregating into a single node all the pastures under the same ownership. Although the pastures network was very fragmented when the distance threshold was short (1.5 meters, relevant for a directly-transmitted disease), it was not the case when the distance threshold was larger (500 m, relevant for a vector-borne disease: 97% of the nodes in the largest connected component). The premises network was highly connected as the largest connected component always included more than 83% of the nodes, whatever the distance threshold. Percolation analyses were performed to model the population-level efficacy of biosecurity measures. Percolation thresholds varied according to the modelled biosecurity measures and to the distance threshold. They were globally high (e.g. >17% of nodes had to be removed, mimicking the confinement of animals inside farm buildings, to obtain the disappearance of the large connected component). The network of pastures thus appeared vulnerable to the spread of diseases in France. Only a large acceptance of biosecurity measures by breeders would allow reducing this structural risk. PMID:28060913

Entrainment and Control of Bacterial Populations: An in Silico Study over a Spatially Extended Agent Based Model.

PubMed

Mina, Petros; Tsaneva-Atanasova, Krasimira; Bernardo, Mario di

2016-07-15

We extend a spatially explicit agent based model (ABM) developed previously to investigate entrainment and control of the emergent behavior of a population of synchronized oscillating cells in a microfluidic chamber. Unlike most of the work in models of control of cellular systems which focus on temporal changes, we model individual cells with spatial dependencies which may contribute to certain behavioral responses. We use the model to investigate the response of both open loop and closed loop strategies, such as proportional control (P-control), proportional-integral control (PI-control) and proportional-integral-derivative control (PID-control), to heterogeinities and growth in the cell population, variations of the control parameters and spatial effects such as diffusion in the spatially explicit setting of a microfluidic chamber setup. We show that, as expected from the theory of phase locking in dynamical systems, open loop control can only entrain the cell population in a subset of forcing periods, with a wide variety of dynamical behaviors obtained outside these regions of entrainment. Closed-loop control is shown instead to guarantee entrainment in a much wider region of control parameter space although presenting limitations when the population size increases over a certain threshold. In silico tracking experiments are also performed to validate the ability of classical control approaches to achieve other reference behaviors such as a desired constant output or a linearly varying one. All simulations are carried out in BSim, an advanced agent-based simulator of microbial population which is here extended ad hoc to include the effects of control strategies acting onto the population.

Invasion of cooperators in lattice populations: linear and non-linear public good games.

PubMed

Vásárhelyi, Zsóka; Scheuring, István

2013-08-01

A generalized version of the N-person volunteer's dilemma (NVD) Game has been suggested recently for illustrating the problem of N-person social dilemmas. Using standard replicator dynamics it can be shown that coexistence of cooperators and defectors is typical in this model. However, the question of how a rare mutant cooperator could invade a population of defectors is still open. Here we examined the dynamics of individual based stochastic models of the NVD. We analyze the dynamics in well-mixed and viscous populations. We show in both cases that coexistence between cooperators and defectors is possible; moreover, spatial aggregation of types in viscous populations can easily lead to pure cooperation. Furthermore we analyze the invasion of cooperators in populations consisting predominantly of defectors. In accordance with analytical results, in deterministic systems, we found the invasion of cooperators successful in the well-mixed case only if their initial concentration was higher than a critical threshold, defined by the replicator dynamics of the NVD. In the viscous case, however, not the initial concentration but the initial number determines the success of invasion. We show that even a single mutant cooperator can invade with a high probability, because the local density of aggregated cooperators exceeds the threshold defined by the game. Comparing the results to models using different benefit functions (linear or sigmoid), we show that the role of the benefit function is much more important in the well-mixed than in the viscous case. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population density estimated from locations of individuals on a passive detector array

USGS Publications Warehouse

Efford, Murray G.; Dawson, Deanna K.; Borchers, David L.

2009-01-01

The density of a closed population of animals occupying stable home ranges may be estimated from detections of individuals on an array of detectors, using newly developed methods for spatially explicit capture–recapture. Likelihood-based methods provide estimates for data from multi-catch traps or from devices that record presence without restricting animal movement ("proximity" detectors such as camera traps and hair snags). As originally proposed, these methods require multiple sampling intervals. We show that equally precise and unbiased estimates may be obtained from a single sampling interval, using only the spatial pattern of detections. This considerably extends the range of possible applications, and we illustrate the potential by estimating density from simulated detections of bird vocalizations on a microphone array. Acoustic detection can be defined as occurring when received signal strength exceeds a threshold. We suggest detection models for binary acoustic data, and for continuous data comprising measurements of all signals above the threshold. While binary data are often sufficient for density estimation, modeling signal strength improves precision when the microphone array is small.

Central and rear-edge populations can be equally vulnerable to warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, Scott; Wernberg, Thomas; Arackal Joy, Bijo; de Bettignies, Thibaut; Campbell, Alexandra H.

2015-12-01

Rear (warm) edge populations are often considered more susceptible to warming than central (cool) populations because of the warmer ambient temperatures they experience, but this overlooks the potential for local variation in thermal tolerances. Here we provide conceptual models illustrating how sensitivity to warming is affected throughout a species' geographical range for locally adapted and non-adapted populations. We test these models for a range-contracting seaweed using observations from a marine heatwave and a 12-month experiment, translocating seaweeds among central, present and historic range edge locations. Growth, reproductive development and survivorship display different temperature thresholds among central and rear-edge populations, but share a 2.5 °C anomaly threshold. Range contraction, therefore, reflects variation in local anomalies rather than differences in absolute temperatures. This demonstrates that warming sensitivity can be similar throughout a species geographical range and highlights the importance of incorporating local adaptation and acclimatization into climate change vulnerability assessments.

Inductive reasoning and forecasting of population dynamics of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii in three sub-tropical reservoirs by evolutionary computation.

PubMed

Recknagel, Friedrich; Orr, Philip T; Cao, Hongqing

2014-01-01

Seven-day-ahead forecasting models of Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii in three warm-monomictic and mesotrophic reservoirs in south-east Queensland have been developed by means of water quality data from 1999 to 2010 and the hybrid evolutionary algorithm HEA. Resulting models using all measured variables as inputs as well as models using electronically measurable variables only as inputs forecasted accurately timing of overgrowth of C. raciborskii and matched well high and low magnitudes of observed bloom events with 0.45≤r 2 >0.61 and 0.4≤r 2 >0.57, respectively. The models also revealed relationships and thresholds triggering bloom events that provide valuable information on synergism between water quality conditions and population dynamics of C. raciborskii. Best performing models based on using all measured variables as inputs indicated electrical conductivity (EC) within the range of 206-280mSm -1 as threshold above which fast growth and high abundances of C. raciborskii have been observed for the three lakes. Best models based on electronically measurable variables for the Lakes Wivenhoe and Somerset indicated a water temperature (WT) range of 25.5-32.7°C within which fast growth and high abundances of C. raciborskii can be expected. By contrast the model for Lake Samsonvale highlighted a turbidity (TURB) level of 4.8 NTU as indicator for mass developments of C. raciborskii. Experiments with online measured water quality data of the Lake Wivenhoe from 2007 to 2010 resulted in predictive models with 0.61≤r 2 >0.65 whereby again similar levels of EC and WT have been discovered as thresholds for outgrowth of C. raciborskii. The highest validity of r 2 =0.75 for an in situ data-based model has been achieved after considering time lags for EC by 7 days and dissolved oxygen by 1 day. These time lags have been discovered by a systematic screening of all possible combinations of time lags between 0 and 10 days for all electronically measurable variables. The so-developed model performs seven-day-ahead forecasts and is currently implemented and tested for early warning of C. raciborskii blooms in the Wivenhoe reservoir. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Surprisingly Low Limits of Selection in Plant Domestication

PubMed Central

Allaby, Robin G.; Kitchen, James L.; Fuller, Dorian Q.

2015-01-01

Current debate concerns the pace at which domesticated plants emerged from cultivated wild populations and how many genes were involved. Using an individual-based model, based on the assumptions of Haldane and Maynard Smith, respectively, we estimate that a surprisingly low number of 50–100 loci are the most that could be under selection in a cultivation regime at the selection strengths observed in the archaeological record. This finding is robust to attempts to rescue populations from extinction through selection from high standing genetic variation, gene flow, and the Maynard Smith-based model of threshold selection. Selective sweeps come at a cost, reducing the capacity of plants to adapt to new environments, which may contribute to the explanation of why selective sweeps have not been detected more frequently and why expansion of the agrarian package during the Neolithic was so frequently associated with collapse. PMID:27081302

Evaluating measurement invariance across assessment modes of phone interview and computer self-administered survey for the PROMIS measures in a population-based cohort of localized prostate cancer survivors.

PubMed

Wang, Mian; Chen, Ronald C; Usinger, Deborah S; Reeve, Bryce B

2017-11-01

To evaluate measurement invariance (phone interview vs computer self-administered survey) of 15 PROMIS measures responded by a population-based cohort of localized prostate cancer survivors. Participants were part of the North Carolina Prostate Cancer Comparative Effectiveness and Survivorship Study. Out of the 952 men who took the phone interview at 24 months post-treatment, 401 of them also completed the same survey online using a home computer. Unidimensionality of the PROMIS measures was examined using single-factor confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) models. Measurement invariance testing was conducted using longitudinal CFA via a model comparison approach. For strongly or partially strongly invariant measures, changes in the latent factors and factor autocorrelations were also estimated and tested. Six measures (sleep disturbance, sleep-related impairment, diarrhea, illness impact-negative, illness impact-positive, and global satisfaction with sex life) had locally dependent items, and therefore model modifications had to be made on these domains prior to measurement invariance testing. Overall, seven measures achieved strong invariance (all items had equal loadings and thresholds), and four measures achieved partial strong invariance (each measure had one item with unequal loadings and thresholds). Three measures (pain interference, interest in sexual activity, and global satisfaction with sex life) failed to establish configural invariance due to between-mode differences in factor patterns. This study supports the use of phone-based live interviewers in lieu of PC-based assessment (when needed) for many of the PROMIS measures.

Genetic variation in threshold reaction norms for alternative reproductive tactics in male Atlantic salmon, Salmo salar.

PubMed

Piché, Jacinthe; Hutchings, Jeffrey A; Blanchard, Wade

2008-07-07

Alternative reproductive tactics may be a product of adaptive phenotypic plasticity, such that discontinuous variation in life history depends on both the genotype and the environment. Phenotypes that fall below a genetically determined threshold adopt one tactic, while those exceeding the threshold adopt the alternative tactic. We report evidence of genetic variability in maturation thresholds for male Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) that mature either as large (more than 1 kg) anadromous males or as small (10-150 g) parr. Using a common-garden experimental protocol, we find that the growth rate at which the sneaker parr phenotype is expressed differs among pure- and mixed-population crosses. Maturation thresholds of hybrids were intermediate to those of pure crosses, consistent with the hypothesis that the life-history switch points are heritable. Our work provides evidence, for a vertebrate, that thresholds for alternative reproductive tactics differ genetically among populations and can be modelled as discontinuous reaction norms for age and size at maturity.

Analytical expression for Risken-Nummedal-Graham-Haken instability threshold in quantum cascade lasers.

PubMed

Vukovic, N; Radovanovic, J; Milanovic, V; Boiko, D L

2016-11-14

We have obtained a closed-form expression for the threshold of Risken-Nummedal-Graham-Haken (RNGH) multimode instability in a Fabry-Pérot (FP) cavity quantum cascade laser (QCL). This simple analytical expression is a versatile tool that can easily be applied in practical situations which require analysis of QCL dynamic behavior and estimation of its RNGH multimode instability threshold. Our model for a FP cavity laser accounts for the carrier coherence grating and carrier population grating as well as their relaxation due to carrier diffusion. In the model, the RNGH instability threshold is analyzed using a second-order bi-orthogonal perturbation theory and we confirm our analytical solution by a comparison with the numerical simulations. In particular, the model predicts a low RNGH instability threshold in QCLs. This agrees very well with experimental data available in the literature.

Design of a reliable and operational landslide early warning system at regional scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Calvello, Michele; Piciullo, Luca; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia; Guzzetti, Fausto

2017-04-01

Landslide early warning systems at regional scale are used to warn authorities, civil protection personnel and the population about the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides over wide areas, typically through the prediction and measurement of meteorological variables. A warning model for these systems must include a regional correlation law and a decision algorithm. A regional correlation law can be defined as a functional relationship between rainfall and landslides; it is typically based on thresholds of rainfall indicators (e.g., cumulated rainfall, rainfall duration) related to different exceedance probabilities of landslide occurrence. A decision algorithm can be defined as a set of assumptions and procedures linking rainfall thresholds to warning levels. The design and the employment of an operational and reliable early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides at regional scale depend on the identification of a reliable correlation law as well as on the definition of a suitable decision algorithm. Herein, a five-step process chain addressing both issues and based on rainfall thresholds is proposed; the procedure is tested in a landslide-prone area of the Campania region in southern Italy. To this purpose, a database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003-2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall thresholds are defined applying a frequentist method to reconstructed rainfall conditions triggering landslides in the test area. In the second step, several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities are evaluated, and different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, within steps three and four, the issuing of warning levels is based on the comparison, over time and for each combination, between the measured rainfall and the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in the regional early warning system is selected evaluating the model performance in terms of success and error indicators by means of the "event, duration matrix, performance" (EDuMaP) method.

Strategies for Early Outbreak Detection of Malaria in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nekorchuk, D.; Gebrehiwot, T.; Mihretie, A.; Awoke, W.; Wimberly, M. C.

2017-12-01

Traditional epidemiological approaches to early detection of disease outbreaks are based on relatively straightforward thresholds (e.g. 75th percentile, standard deviations) estimated from historical case data. For diseases with strong seasonality, these can be modified to create separate thresholds for each seasonal time step. However, for disease processes that are non-stationary, more sophisticated techniques are needed to more accurately estimate outbreak threshold values. Early detection for geohealth-related diseases that also have environmental drivers, such as vector-borne diseases, may also benefit from the integration of time-lagged environmental data and disease ecology models into the threshold calculations. The Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) project has been integrating malaria case surveillance with remotely-sensed environmental data for early detection, warning, and forecasting of malaria epidemics in the Amhara region of Ethiopia, and has five years of weekly time series data from 47 woredas (districts). Efforts to reduce the burden of malaria in Ethiopia has been met with some notable success in the past two decades with major reduction in cases and deaths. However, malaria remains a significant public health threat as 60% of the population live in malarious areas, and due to the seasonal and unstable transmission patterns with cyclic outbreaks, protective immunity is generally low which could cause high morbidity and mortality during the epidemics. This study compared several approaches for defining outbreak thresholds and for identifying a potential outbreak based on deviations from these thresholds. We found that model-based approaches that accounted for climate-driven seasonality in malaria transmission were most effective, and that incorporating a trend component improved outbreak detection in areas with active malaria elimination efforts. An advantage of these early detection techniques is that they can detect climate-driven outbreaks as well as outbreaks driven by social factors such as human migration.

The threshold hypothesis: solving the equation of nurture vs nature in type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Wasserfall, C; Nead, K; Mathews, C; Atkinson, M A

2011-09-01

For more than 40 years, the contributions of nurture (i.e. the environment) and nature (i.e. genetics) have been touted for their aetiological importance in type 1 diabetes. Disappointingly, knowledge gains in these areas, while individually successful, have to a large extent occurred in isolation from each other. One reason underlying this divide is the lack of a testable model that simultaneously considers the contributions of genetic and environmental determinants in the formation of this and potentially other disorders that are subject to these variables. To address this void, we have designed a model based on the hypothesis that the aetiological influences of genetics and environment, when evaluated as intersecting and reciprocal trend lines based on odds ratios, result in a method of concurrently evaluating both facets and defining the attributable risk of clinical onset of type 1 diabetes. The model, which we have elected to term the 'threshold hypothesis', also provides a novel means of conceptualising the complex interactions of nurture with nature in type 1 diabetes across various geographical populations.

Prediction of spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for post-fire debris-flow generation in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Staley, Dennis; Negri, Jacquelyn; Kean, Jason

2016-04-01

Population expansion into fire-prone steeplands has resulted in an increase in post-fire debris-flow risk in the western United States. Logistic regression methods for determining debris-flow likelihood and the calculation of empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow initiation represent two common approaches for characterizing hazard and reducing risk. Logistic regression models are currently being used to rapidly assess debris-flow hazard in response to design storms of known intensities (e.g. a 10-year recurrence interval rainstorm). Empirical rainfall intensity-duration thresholds comprise a major component of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the National Weather Service (NWS) debris-flow early warning system at a regional scale in southern California. However, these two modeling approaches remain independent, with each approach having limitations that do not allow for synergistic local-scale (e.g. drainage-basin scale) characterization of debris-flow hazard during intense rainfall. The current logistic regression equations consider rainfall a unique independent variable, which prevents the direct calculation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood. Regional (e.g. mountain range or physiographic province scale) rainfall intensity-duration thresholds fail to provide insight into the basin-scale variability of post-fire debris-flow hazard and require an extensive database of historical debris-flow occurrence and rainfall characteristics. Here, we present a new approach that combines traditional logistic regression and intensity-duration threshold methodologies. This method allows for local characterization of both the likelihood that a debris-flow will occur at a given rainfall intensity, the direct calculation of the rainfall rates that will result in a given likelihood, and the ability to calculate spatially explicit rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in recently burned areas. Our approach synthesizes the two methods by incorporating measured rainfall intensity into each model variable (based on measures of topographic steepness, burn severity and surface properties) within the logistic regression equation. This approach provides a more realistic representation of the relation between rainfall intensity and debris-flow likelihood, as likelihood values asymptotically approach zero when rainfall intensity approaches 0 mm/h, and increase with more intense rainfall. Model performance was evaluated by comparing predictions to several existing regional thresholds. The model, based upon training data collected in southern California, USA, has proven to accurately predict rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for other areas in the western United States not included in the original training dataset. In addition, the improved logistic regression model shows promise for emergency planning purposes and real-time, site-specific early warning. With further validation, this model may permit the prediction of spatially-explicit intensity-duration thresholds for debris-flow generation in areas where empirically derived regional thresholds do not exist. This improvement would permit the expansion of the early-warning system into other regions susceptible to post-fire debris flow.

Assessing trade-offs to inform ecosystem-based fisheries management of forage fish.

PubMed

Shelton, Andrew Olaf; Samhouri, Jameal F; Stier, Adrian C; Levin, Philip S

2014-11-19

Twenty-first century conservation is centered on negotiating trade-offs between the diverse needs of people and the needs of the other species constituting coupled human-natural ecosystems. Marine forage fishes, such as sardines, anchovies, and herring, are a nexus for such trade-offs because they are both central nodes in marine food webs and targeted by fisheries. An important example is Pacific herring, Clupea pallisii in the Northeast Pacific. Herring populations are subject to two distinct fisheries: one that harvests adults and one that harvests spawned eggs. We develop stochastic, age-structured models to assess the interaction between fisheries, herring populations, and the persistence of predators reliant on herring populations. We show that egg- and adult-fishing have asymmetric effects on herring population dynamics--herring stocks can withstand higher levels of egg harvest before becoming depleted. Second, ecosystem thresholds proposed to ensure the persistence of herring predators do not necessarily pose more stringent constraints on fisheries than conventional, fishery driven harvest guidelines. Our approach provides a general template to evaluate ecosystem trade-offs between stage-specific harvest practices in relation to environmental variability, the risk of fishery closures, and the risk of exceeding ecosystem thresholds intended to ensure conservation goals are met.

A mathematical model for malaria transmission with asymptomatic carriers and two age groups in the human population.

PubMed

Beretta, Edoardo; Capasso, Vincenzo; Garao, Dario G

2018-06-01

In this paper a conceptual mathematical model of malaria transmission proposed in a previous paper has been analyzed in a deeper detail. Among its key epidemiological features of this model, two-age-classes (child and adult) and asymptomatic carriers have been included. The extra mortality of mosquitoes due to the use of long-lasting treated mosquito nets (LLINs) and Indoor Residual Spraying (IRS) has been included too. By taking advantage of the natural double time scale of the parasite and the human populations, it has been possible to provide interesting threshold results. In particular it has been shown that key parameters can be identified such that below a threshold level, built on these parameters, the epidemic tends to extinction, while above another threshold level it tends to a nontrivial endemic state, for which an interval estimate has been provided. Numerical simulations confirm the analytical results. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modeling habitat split: landscape and life history traits determine amphibian extinction thresholds.

PubMed

Fonseca, Carlos Roberto; Coutinho, Renato M; Azevedo, Franciane; Berbert, Juliana M; Corso, Gilberto; Kraenkel, Roberto A

2013-01-01

Habitat split is a major force behind the worldwide decline of amphibian populations, causing community change in richness and species composition. In fragmented landscapes, natural remnants, the terrestrial habitat of the adults, are frequently separated from streams, the aquatic habitat of the larvae. An important question is how this landscape configuration affects population levels and if it can drive species to extinction locally. Here, we put forward the first theoretical model on habitat split which is particularly concerned on how split distance - the distance between the two required habitats - affects population size and persistence in isolated fragments. Our diffusive model shows that habitat split alone is able to generate extinction thresholds. Fragments occurring between the aquatic habitat and a given critical split distance are expected to hold viable populations, while fragments located farther away are expected to be unoccupied. Species with higher reproductive success and higher diffusion rate of post-metamorphic youngs are expected to have farther critical split distances. Furthermore, the model indicates that negative effects of habitat split are poorly compensated by positive effects of fragment size. The habitat split model improves our understanding about spatially structured populations and has relevant implications for landscape design for conservation. It puts on a firm theoretical basis the relation between habitat split and the decline of amphibian populations.

Economic evaluation of a group-based exercise program for falls prevention among the older community-dwelling population.

PubMed

McLean, Kendra; Day, Lesley; Dalton, Andrew

2015-03-26

Falls among older people are of growing concern globally. Implementing cost-effective strategies for their prevention is of utmost importance given the ageing population and associated potential for increased costs of fall-related injury over the next decades. The purpose of this study was to undertake a cost-utility analysis and secondary cost-effectiveness analysis from a healthcare system perspective, of a group-based exercise program compared to routine care for falls prevention in an older community-dwelling population. A decision analysis using a decision tree model was based on the results of a previously published randomised controlled trial with a community-dwelling population aged over 70. Measures of falls, fall-related injuries and resource use were directly obtained from trial data and supplemented by literature-based utility measures. A sub-group analysis was performed of women only. Cost estimates are reported in 2010 British Pound Sterling (GBP). The ICER of GBP£51,483 per QALY for the base case analysis was well above the accepted cost-effectiveness threshold of GBP£20,000 to £30,000 per QALY, but in a sensitivity analysis with minimised program implementation the incremental cost reached GBP£25,678 per QALY. The ICER value at 95% confidence in the base case analysis was GBP£99,664 per QALY and GBP£50,549 per QALY in the lower cost analysis. Males had a 44% lower injury rate if they fell, compared to females resulting in a more favourable ICER for the women only analysis. For women only the ICER was GBP£22,986 per QALY in the base case and was below the cost-effectiveness threshold for all other variations of program implementation. The ICER value at 95% confidence was GBP£48,212 in the women only base case analysis and GBP£23,645 in the lower cost analysis. The base case incremental cost per fall averted was GBP£652 (GBP£616 for women only). A threshold analysis indicates that this exercise program cannot realistically break even. The results suggest that this exercise program is cost-effective for women only. There is no evidence to support its cost-effectiveness in a group of mixed gender unless the costs of program implementation are minimal. Conservative assumptions may have underestimated the true cost-effectiveness of the program.

Age-associated variation in sensory perception of iron in drinking water and the potential for overexposure in the human population.

PubMed

Mirlohi, Susan; Dietrich, Andrea M; Duncan, Susan E

2011-08-01

Humans interact with their environment through the five senses, but little is known about population variability in the ability to assess contaminants. Sensory thresholds and biochemical indicators of metallic flavor perception in humans were evaluated for ferrous (Fe(2+)) iron in drinking water; subjects aged 19-84 years participated. Metallic flavor thresholds for individuals and subpopulations based on age were determined. Oral lipid oxidation and oral pH were measured in saliva as potential biochemical indicators. Individual thresholds were 0.007-14.14 mg/L Fe(2+) and the overall population threshold was 0.17 mg/L Fe(2+) in reagent water. Average thresholds for individuals younger and older than 50 years of age (grouped by the daily recommended nutritional guidelines for iron intake) were significantly different (p = 0.013); the population thresholds for each group were 0.045 mg/L Fe(2+) and 0.498 mg/L Fe(2+), respectively. Many subjects >50 and a few subjects <50 years were insensitive to metallic flavor. There was no correlation between age, oral lipid oxidation, and oral pH. Standardized olfactory assessment found poor sensitivity for Fe(2+) corresponded with conditions of mild, moderate, and total anosmia. The findings demonstrate an age-dependent sensitivity to iron indicating as people age they are less sensitive to metallic perception.

Population viability analysis for endangered Roanoke logperch

USGS Publications Warehouse

Roberts, James H.; Angermeier, Paul; Anderson, Gregory B.

2016-01-01

A common strategy for recovering endangered species is ensuring that populations exceed the minimum viable population size (MVP), a demographic benchmark that theoretically ensures low long-term extinction risk. One method of establishing MVP is population viability analysis, a modeling technique that simulates population trajectories and forecasts extinction risk based on a series of biological, environmental, and management assumptions. Such models also help identify key uncertainties that have a large influence on extinction risk. We used stochastic count-based simulation models to explore extinction risk, MVP, and the possible benefits of alternative management strategies in populations of Roanoke logperch Percina rex, an endangered stream fish. Estimates of extinction risk were sensitive to the assumed population growth rate and model type, carrying capacity, and catastrophe regime (frequency and severity of anthropogenic fish kills), whereas demographic augmentation did little to reduce extinction risk. Under density-dependent growth, the estimated MVP for Roanoke logperch ranged from 200 to 4200 individuals, depending on the assumed severity of catastrophes. Thus, depending on the MVP threshold, anywhere from two to all five of the logperch populations we assessed were projected to be viable. Despite this uncertainty, these results help identify populations with the greatest relative extinction risk, as well as management strategies that might reduce this risk the most, such as increasing carrying capacity and reducing fish kills. Better estimates of population growth parameters and catastrophe regimes would facilitate the refinement of MVP and extinction-risk estimates, and they should be a high priority for future research on Roanoke logperch and other imperiled stream-fish species.

Model Fit and Item Factor Analysis: Overfactoring, Underfactoring, and a Program to Guide Interpretation.

PubMed

Clark, D Angus; Bowles, Ryan P

2018-04-23

In exploratory item factor analysis (IFA), researchers may use model fit statistics and commonly invoked fit thresholds to help determine the dimensionality of an assessment. However, these indices and thresholds may mislead as they were developed in a confirmatory framework for models with continuous, not categorical, indicators. The present study used Monte Carlo simulation methods to investigate the ability of popular model fit statistics (chi-square, root mean square error of approximation, the comparative fit index, and the Tucker-Lewis index) and their standard cutoff values to detect the optimal number of latent dimensions underlying sets of dichotomous items. Models were fit to data generated from three-factor population structures that varied in factor loading magnitude, factor intercorrelation magnitude, number of indicators, and whether cross loadings or minor factors were included. The effectiveness of the thresholds varied across fit statistics, and was conditional on many features of the underlying model. Together, results suggest that conventional fit thresholds offer questionable utility in the context of IFA.

Otoacoustic emissions in the general adult population of Nord-Trøndelag, Norway: III. Relationships with pure-tone hearing thresholds.

PubMed

Engdahl, Bo; Tambs, Kristian; Borchgrevink, Hans M; Hoffman, Howard J

2005-01-01

This study aims to describe the association between otoacoustic emissions (OAEs) and pure-tone hearing thresholds (PTTs) in an unscreened adult population (N =6415), to determine the efficiency by which TEOAEs and DPOAEs can identify ears with elevated PTTs, and to investigate whether a combination of DPOAE and TEOAE responses improves this performance. Associations were examined by linear regression analysis and ANOVA. Test performance was assessed by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves. The relation between OAEs and PTTs appeared curvilinear with a moderate degree of non-linearity. Combining DPOAEs and TEOAEs improved performance. Test performance depended on the cut-off thresholds defining elevated PTTs with optimal values between 25 and 45 dB HL, depending on frequency and type of OAE measure. The unique constitution of the present large sample, which reflects the general adult population, makes these results applicable to population-based studies and screening programs.

Evaluation on the cost-effective threshold of osteoporosis treatment on elderly women in China using discrete event simulation model.

PubMed

Ni, W; Jiang, Y

2017-02-01

This study used a simulation model to determine the cost-effective threshold of fracture risk to treat osteoporosis among elderly Chinese women. Osteoporosis treatment is cost-effective among average-risk women who are at least 75 years old and above-average-risk women who are younger than 75 years old. Aging of the Chinese population is imposing increasing economic burden of osteoporosis. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatment among the senior Chinese women population. A discrete event simulation model using age-specific probabilities of hip fracture, clinical vertebral fracture, wrist fracture, humerus fracture, and other fracture; costs (2015 US dollars); and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was used to assess the cost-effectiveness of osteoporosis treatment. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated. The willingness to pay (WTP) for a QALY in China was compared with the calculated ICER to decide the cost-effectiveness. To determine the absolute 10-year hip fracture probability at which the osteoporosis treatment became cost-effective, average age-specific probabilities for all fractures were multiplied by a relative risk (RR) that was systematically varied from 0 to 10 until the WTP threshold was observed for treatment relative to no intervention. Sensitivity analyses were also performed to evaluate the impacts from WTP and annual treatment costs. In baseline analysis, simulated ICERs were higher than the WTP threshold among Chinese women younger than 75, but much lower than the WTP among the older population. Sensitivity analyses indicated that cost-effectiveness could vary due to a higher WTP threshold or a lower annual treatment cost. A 30 % increase in WTP or a 30 % reduction in annual treatment costs will make osteoporosis treatment cost-effective for Chinese women population from 55 to 85. The current study provides evidence that osteoporosis treatment is cost-effective among a subpopulation of Chinese senior women. The results also indicate that the cost-effectiveness of using osteoporosis treatment is sensitive to the WTP threshold and annual treatment costs.

Diversity Outbred Mice Identify Population-Based Exposure Thresholds and Genetic Factors that Influence Benzene-Induced Genotoxicity

PubMed Central

Gatti, Daniel M.; Morgan, Daniel L.; Kissling, Grace E.; Shockley, Keith R.; Knudsen, Gabriel A.; Shepard, Kim G.; Price, Herman C.; King, Deborah; Witt, Kristine L.; Pedersen, Lars C.; Munger, Steven C.; Svenson, Karen L.; Churchill, Gary A.

2014-01-01

Background Inhalation of benzene at levels below the current exposure limit values leads to hematotoxicity in occupationally exposed workers. Objective We sought to evaluate Diversity Outbred (DO) mice as a tool for exposure threshold assessment and to identify genetic factors that influence benzene-induced genotoxicity. Methods We exposed male DO mice to benzene (0, 1, 10, or 100 ppm; 75 mice/exposure group) via inhalation for 28 days (6 hr/day for 5 days/week). The study was repeated using two independent cohorts of 300 animals each. We measured micronuclei frequency in reticulocytes from peripheral blood and bone marrow and applied benchmark concentration modeling to estimate exposure thresholds. We genotyped the mice and performed linkage analysis. Results We observed a dose-dependent increase in benzene-induced chromosomal damage and estimated a benchmark concentration limit of 0.205 ppm benzene using DO mice. This estimate is an order of magnitude below the value estimated using B6C3F1 mice. We identified a locus on Chr 10 (31.87 Mb) that contained a pair of overexpressed sulfotransferases that were inversely correlated with genotoxicity. Conclusions The genetically diverse DO mice provided a reproducible response to benzene exposure. The DO mice display interindividual variation in toxicity response and, as such, may more accurately reflect the range of response that is observed in human populations. Studies using DO mice can localize genetic associations with high precision. The identification of sulfotransferases as candidate genes suggests that DO mice may provide additional insight into benzene-induced genotoxicity. Citation French JE, Gatti DM, Morgan DL, Kissling GE, Shockley KR, Knudsen GA, Shepard KG, Price HC, King D, Witt KL, Pedersen LC, Munger SC, Svenson KL, Churchill GA. 2015. Diversity Outbred mice identify population-based exposure thresholds and genetic factors that influence benzene-induced genotoxicity. Environ Health Perspect 123:237–245; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408202 PMID:25376053

Developing a synthetic national population to investigate the impact of different cardiovascular disease risk management strategies: A derivation and validation study

PubMed Central

Jackson, Rod

2017-01-01

Background Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients’ multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country’s total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. Methods and results A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30–84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each ‘synthetic’ person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. Conclusions We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere. PMID:28384217

Developing a synthetic national population to investigate the impact of different cardiovascular disease risk management strategies: A derivation and validation study.

PubMed

Knight, Josh; Wells, Susan; Marshall, Roger; Exeter, Daniel; Jackson, Rod

2017-01-01

Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients' multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country's total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30-84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each 'synthetic' person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere.

Simulation models in population breast cancer screening: A systematic review.

PubMed

Koleva-Kolarova, Rositsa G; Zhan, Zhuozhao; Greuter, Marcel J W; Feenstra, Talitha L; De Bock, Geertruida H

2015-08-01

The aim of this review was to critically evaluate published simulation models for breast cancer screening of the general population and provide a direction for future modeling. A systematic literature search was performed to identify simulation models with more than one application. A framework for qualitative assessment which incorporated model type; input parameters; modeling approach, transparency of input data sources/assumptions, sensitivity analyses and risk of bias; validation, and outcomes was developed. Predicted mortality reduction (MR) and cost-effectiveness (CE) were compared to estimates from meta-analyses of randomized control trials (RCTs) and acceptability thresholds. Seven original simulation models were distinguished, all sharing common input parameters. The modeling approach was based on tumor progression (except one model) with internal and cross validation of the resulting models, but without any external validation. Differences in lead times for invasive or non-invasive tumors, and the option for cancers not to progress were not explicitly modeled. The models tended to overestimate the MR (11-24%) due to screening as compared to optimal RCTs 10% (95% CI - 2-21%) MR. Only recently, potential harms due to regular breast cancer screening were reported. Most scenarios resulted in acceptable cost-effectiveness estimates given current thresholds. The selected models have been repeatedly applied in various settings to inform decision making and the critical analysis revealed high risk of bias in their outcomes. Given the importance of the models, there is a need for externally validated models which use systematical evidence for input data to allow for more critical evaluation of breast cancer screening. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Mathematical Model of Anthrax Transmission in Animal Populations.

PubMed

Saad-Roy, C M; van den Driessche, P; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2017-02-01

A general mathematical model of anthrax (caused by Bacillus anthracis) transmission is formulated that includes live animals, infected carcasses and spores in the environment. The basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is calculated, and existence of a unique endemic equilibrium is established for [Formula: see text] above the threshold value 1. Using data from the literature, elasticity indices for [Formula: see text] and type reproduction numbers are computed to quantify anthrax control measures. Including only herbivorous animals, anthrax is eradicated if [Formula: see text]. For these animals, oscillatory solutions arising from Hopf bifurcations are numerically shown to exist for certain parameter values with [Formula: see text] and to have periodicity as observed from anthrax data. Including carnivores and assuming no disease-related death, anthrax again goes extinct below the threshold. Local stability of the endemic equilibrium is established above the threshold; thus, periodic solutions are not possible for these populations. It is shown numerically that oscillations in spore growth may drive oscillations in animal populations; however, the total number of infected animals remains about the same as with constant spore growth.

Modeling human mobility responses to the large-scale spreading of infectious diseases.

PubMed

Meloni, Sandro; Perra, Nicola; Arenas, Alex; Gómez, Sergio; Moreno, Yamir; Vespignani, Alessandro

2011-01-01

Current modeling of infectious diseases allows for the study of realistic scenarios that include population heterogeneity, social structures, and mobility processes down to the individual level. The advances in the realism of epidemic description call for the explicit modeling of individual behavioral responses to the presence of disease within modeling frameworks. Here we formulate and analyze a metapopulation model that incorporates several scenarios of self-initiated behavioral changes into the mobility patterns of individuals. We find that prevalence-based travel limitations do not alter the epidemic invasion threshold. Strikingly, we observe in both synthetic and data-driven numerical simulations that when travelers decide to avoid locations with high levels of prevalence, this self-initiated behavioral change may enhance disease spreading. Our results point out that the real-time availability of information on the disease and the ensuing behavioral changes in the population may produce a negative impact on disease containment and mitigation.

Verification of the tumor volume delineation method using a fixed threshold of peak standardized uptake value.

PubMed

Koyama, Kazuya; Mitsumoto, Takuya; Shiraishi, Takahiro; Tsuda, Keisuke; Nishiyama, Atsushi; Inoue, Kazumasa; Yoshikawa, Kyosan; Hatano, Kazuo; Kubota, Kazuo; Fukushi, Masahiro

2017-09-01

We aimed to determine the difference in tumor volume associated with the reconstruction model in positron-emission tomography (PET). To reduce the influence of the reconstruction model, we suggested a method to measure the tumor volume using the relative threshold method with a fixed threshold based on peak standardized uptake value (SUV peak ). The efficacy of our method was verified using 18 F-2-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose PET/computed tomography images of 20 patients with lung cancer. The tumor volume was determined using the relative threshold method with a fixed threshold based on the SUV peak . The PET data were reconstructed using the ordered-subset expectation maximization (OSEM) model, the OSEM + time-of-flight (TOF) model, and the OSEM + TOF + point-spread function (PSF) model. The volume differences associated with the reconstruction algorithm (%VD) were compared. For comparison, the tumor volume was measured using the relative threshold method based on the maximum SUV (SUV max ). For the OSEM and TOF models, the mean %VD values were -0.06 ± 8.07 and -2.04 ± 4.23% for the fixed 40% threshold according to the SUV max and the SUV peak, respectively. The effect of our method in this case seemed to be minor. For the OSEM and PSF models, the mean %VD values were -20.41 ± 14.47 and -13.87 ± 6.59% for the fixed 40% threshold according to the SUV max and SUV peak , respectively. Our new method enabled the measurement of tumor volume with a fixed threshold and reduced the influence of the changes in tumor volume associated with the reconstruction model.

On the Reproduction Number of a Gut Microbiota Model.

PubMed

Barril, Carles; Calsina, Àngel; Ripoll, Jordi

2017-11-01

A spatially structured linear model of the growth of intestinal bacteria is analysed from two generational viewpoints. Firstly, the basic reproduction number associated with the bacterial population, i.e. the expected number of daughter cells per bacterium, is given explicitly in terms of biological parameters. Secondly, an alternative quantity is introduced based on the number of bacteria produced within the intestine by one bacterium originally in the external media. The latter depends on the parameters in a simpler way and provides more biological insight than the standard reproduction number, allowing the design of experimental procedures. Both quantities coincide and are equal to one at the extinction threshold, below which the bacterial population becomes extinct. Optimal values of both reproduction numbers are derived assuming parameter trade-offs.

Climate-based models for pulsed resources improve predictability of consumer population dynamics: outbreaks of house mice in forest ecosystems.

PubMed

Holland, E Penelope; James, Alex; Ruscoe, Wendy A; Pech, Roger P; Byrom, Andrea E

2015-01-01

Accurate predictions of the timing and magnitude of consumer responses to episodic seeding events (masts) are important for understanding ecosystem dynamics and for managing outbreaks of invasive species generated by masts. While models relating consumer populations to resource fluctuations have been developed successfully for a range of natural and modified ecosystems, a critical gap that needs addressing is better prediction of resource pulses. A recent model used change in summer temperature from one year to the next (ΔT) for predicting masts for forest and grassland plants in New Zealand. We extend this climate-based method in the framework of a model for consumer-resource dynamics to predict invasive house mouse (Mus musculus) outbreaks in forest ecosystems. Compared with previous mast models based on absolute temperature, the ΔT method for predicting masts resulted in an improved model for mouse population dynamics. There was also a threshold effect of ΔT on the likelihood of an outbreak occurring. The improved climate-based method for predicting resource pulses and consumer responses provides a straightforward rule of thumb for determining, with one year's advance warning, whether management intervention might be required in invaded ecosystems. The approach could be applied to consumer-resource systems worldwide where climatic variables are used to model the size and duration of resource pulses, and may have particular relevance for ecosystems where global change scenarios predict increased variability in climatic events.

The relative effects of habitat loss and fragmentation on population genetic variation in the red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis).

PubMed

Bruggeman, Douglas J; Wiegand, Thorsten; Fernández, Néstor

2010-09-01

The relative influence of habitat loss, fragmentation and matrix heterogeneity on the viability of populations is a critical area of conservation research that remains unresolved. Using simulation modelling, we provide an analysis of the influence both patch size and patch isolation have on abundance, effective population size (N(e)) and F(ST). An individual-based, spatially explicit population model based on 15 years of field work on the red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis) was applied to different landscape configurations. The variation in landscape patterns was summarized using spatial statistics based on O-ring statistics. By regressing demographic and genetics attributes that emerged across the landscape treatments against proportion of total habitat and O-ring statistics, we show that O-ring statistics provide an explicit link between population processes, habitat area, and critical thresholds of fragmentation that affect those processes. Spatial distances among land cover classes that affect biological processes translated into critical scales at which the measures of landscape structure correlated best with genetic indices. Therefore our study infers pattern from process, which contrasts with past studies of landscape genetics. We found that population genetic structure was more strongly affected by fragmentation than population size, which suggests that examining only population size may limit recognition of fragmentation effects that erode genetic variation. If effective population size is used to set recovery goals for endangered species, then habitat fragmentation effects may be sufficiently strong to prevent evaluation of recovery based on the ratio of census:effective population size alone.

Auditory-nerve single-neuron thresholds to electrical stimulation from scala tympani electrodes.

PubMed

Parkins, C W; Colombo, J

1987-12-31

Single auditory-nerve neuron thresholds were studied in sensory-deafened squirrel monkeys to determine the effects of electrical stimulus shape and frequency on single-neuron thresholds. Frequency was separated into its components, pulse width and pulse rate, which were analyzed separately. Square and sinusoidal pulse shapes were compared. There were no or questionably significant threshold differences in charge per phase between sinusoidal and square pulses of the same pulse width. There was a small (less than 0.5 dB) but significant threshold advantage for 200 microseconds/phase pulses delivered at low pulse rates (156 pps) compared to higher pulse rates (625 pps and 2500 pps). Pulse width was demonstrated to be the prime determinant of single-neuron threshold, resulting in strength-duration curves similar to other mammalian myelinated neurons, but with longer chronaxies. The most efficient electrical stimulus pulse width to use for cochlear implant stimulation was determined to be 100 microseconds/phase. This pulse width delivers the lowest charge/phase at threshold. The single-neuron strength-duration curves were compared to strength-duration curves of a computer model based on the specific anatomy of auditory-nerve neurons. The membrane capacitance and resulting chronaxie of the model can be varied by altering the length of the unmyelinated termination of the neuron, representing the unmyelinated portion of the neuron between the habenula perforata and the hair cell. This unmyelinated segment of the auditory-nerve neuron may be subject to aminoglycoside damage. Simulating a 10 micron unmyelinated termination for this model neuron produces a strength-duration curve that closely fits the single-neuron data obtained from aminoglycoside deafened animals. Both the model and the single-neuron strength-duration curves differ significantly from behavioral threshold data obtained from monkeys and humans with cochlear implants. This discrepancy can best be explained by the involvement of higher level neurologic processes in the behavioral responses. These findings suggest that the basic principles of neural membrane function must be considered in developing or analyzing electrical stimulation strategies for cochlear prostheses if the appropriate stimulation of frequency specific populations of auditory-nerve neurons is the objective.

A Locust Phase Change Model with Multiple Switching States and Random Perturbation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiang, Changcheng; Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A.; Qin, Wenjie

2016-12-01

Insects such as locusts and some moths can transform from a solitarious phase when they remain in loose populations and a gregarious phase, when they may swarm. Therefore, the key to effective management of outbreaks of species such as the desert locust Schistocercagregaria is early detection of when they are in the threshold state between the two phases, followed by timely control of their hopper stages before they fledge because the control of flying adult swarms is costly and often ineffective. Definitions of gregarization thresholds should assist preventive control measures and avoid treatment of areas that might not lead to gregarization. In order to better understand the effects of the threshold density which represents the gregarization threshold on the outbreak of a locust population, we developed a model of a discrete switching system. The proposed model allows us to address: (1) How frequently switching occurs from solitarious to gregarious phases and vice versa; (2) When do stable switching transients occur, the existence of which indicate that solutions with larger amplitudes can switch to a stable attractor with a value less than the switching threshold density?; and (3) How does random perturbation influence the switching pattern? Our results show that both subsystems have refuge equilibrium points, outbreak equilibrium points and bistable equilibria. Further, the outbreak equilibrium points and bistable equilibria can coexist for a wide range of parameters and can switch from one to another. This type of switching is sensitive to the intrinsic growth rate and the initial values of the locust population, and may result in locust population outbreaks and phase switching once a small perturbation occurs. Moreover, the simulation results indicate that the switching transient patterns become identical after some generations, suggesting that the evolving process of the perturbation system is not related to the initial value after some fixed number of generations for the same stochastic processes. However, the switching frequency and outbreak patterns can be significantly affected by the intensity of noise and the intrinsic growth rate of the locust population.

Changes in ganglion cell physiology during retinal degeneration influence excitability by prosthetic electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cho, Alice; Ratliff, Charles; Sampath, Alapakkam; Weiland, James

2016-04-01

Objective. Here we investigate ganglion cell physiology in healthy and degenerating retina to test its influence on threshold to electrical stimulation. Approach. Age-related Macular Degeneration and Retinitis Pigmentosa cause blindness via outer retinal degeneration. Inner retinal pathways that transmit visual information to the central brain remain intact, so direct electrical stimulation from prosthetic devices offers the possibility for visual restoration. Since inner retinal physiology changes during degeneration, we characterize physiological properties and responses to electrical stimulation in retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) of both wild type mice and the rd10 mouse model of retinal degeneration. Main results. Our aggregate results support previous observations that elevated thresholds characterize diseased retinas. However, a physiology-driven classification scheme reveals distinct sub-populations of ganglion cells with thresholds either normal or strongly elevated compared to wild-type. When these populations are combined, only a weakly elevated threshold with large variance is observed. The cells with normal threshold are more depolarized at rest and exhibit periodic oscillations. Significance. During degeneration, physiological changes in RGCs affect the threshold stimulation currents required to evoke action potentials.

Towards a threshold climate for emergency lower respiratory hospital admissions.

PubMed

Islam, Muhammad Saiful; Chaussalet, Thierry J; Koizumi, Naoru

2017-02-01

Identification of 'cut-points' or thresholds of climate factors would play a crucial role in alerting risks of climate change and providing guidance to policymakers. This study investigated a 'Climate Threshold' for emergency hospital admissions of chronic lower respiratory diseases by using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We analysed a unique longitudinal dataset (10 years, 2000-2009) on emergency hospital admissions, climate, and pollution factors for the Greater London. Our study extends existing work on this topic by considering non-linearity, lag effects between climate factors and disease exposure within the DLNM model considering B-spline as smoothing technique. The final model also considered natural cubic splines of time since exposure and 'day of the week' as confounding factors. The results of DLNM indicated a significant improvement in model fitting compared to a typical GLM model. The final model identified the thresholds of several climate factors including: high temperature (≥27°C), low relative humidity (≤ 40%), high Pm10 level (≥70-µg/m 3 ), low wind speed (≤ 2 knots) and high rainfall (≥30mm). Beyond the threshold values, a significantly higher number of emergency admissions due to lower respiratory problems would be expected within the following 2-3 days after the climate shift in the Greater London. The approach will be useful to initiate 'region and disease specific' climate mitigation plans. It will help identify spatial hot spots and the most sensitive areas and population due to climate change, and will eventually lead towards a diversified health warning system tailored to specific climate zones and populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Critical thresholds in species` responses to landscape structure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

With, K.A.; Crist, T.O.

1995-12-01

Critical thresholds are transition ranges across which small changes in spatial pattern produce abrupt shifts in ecological responses. Habitat fragmentation provides a familiar example of a critical threshold. As the landscape becomes dissected into smaller parcels of habitat. landscape connectivity-the functional linkage among habitat patches - may suddenly become disrupted, which may have important consequences for the distribution and persistence of populations. Landscape connectivity depends not only on the abundance and spatial patterning of habitat. but also on the habitat specificity and dispersal abilities of species. Habitat specialists with limited dispersal capabilities presumably have a much lower threshold to habitatmore » fragmentation than highly vagile species, which may perceive the landscape as functionally connected across a greater range of fragmentation severity. To determine where threshold effects in species, responses to landscape structure are likely to occur, a simulation model modified from percolation theory was developed. Our simulations predicted the distributional patterns of populations in different landscape mosaics, which we tested empirically using two grasshopper species (Orthoptera: Acrididae) that occur in the shortgrass prairie of north-central Colorado. The distribution of these two species in this grassland mosaic matched the predictions from our simulations. By providing quantitative predictions of threshold effects, this modelling approach may prove useful in the formulation of conservation strategies and assessment of land-use changes on species` distributional patterns and persistence.« less

Dynamic Multiple-Threshold Call Admission Control Based on Optimized Genetic Algorithm in Wireless/Mobile Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shengling; Cui, Yong; Koodli, Rajeev; Hou, Yibin; Huang, Zhangqin

Due to the dynamics of topology and resources, Call Admission Control (CAC) plays a significant role for increasing resource utilization ratio and guaranteeing users' QoS requirements in wireless/mobile networks. In this paper, a dynamic multi-threshold CAC scheme is proposed to serve multi-class service in a wireless/mobile network. The thresholds are renewed at the beginning of each time interval to react to the changing mobility rate and network load. To find suitable thresholds, a reward-penalty model is designed, which provides different priorities between different service classes and call types through different reward/penalty policies according to network load and average call arrival rate. To speed up the running time of CAC, an Optimized Genetic Algorithm (OGA) is presented, whose components such as encoding, population initialization, fitness function and mutation etc., are all optimized in terms of the traits of the CAC problem. The simulation demonstrates that the proposed CAC scheme outperforms the similar schemes, which means the optimization is realized. Finally, the simulation shows the efficiency of OGA.

Meaningful use stage 2 e-prescribing threshold and adverse drug events in the Medicare Part D population with diabetes

PubMed Central

Gabriel, Meghan Hufstader; Encinosa, William; Mostashari, Farzad; Bynum, Julie

2015-01-01

Evidence supports the potential for e-prescribing to reduce the incidence of adverse drug events (ADEs) in hospital-based studies, but studies in the ambulatory setting have not used occurrence of ADE as their outcome. Using the “prescription origin code” in 2011 Medicare Part D prescription drug events files, the authors investigate whether physicians who meet the meaningful use stage 2 threshold for e-prescribing (≥50% of prescriptions e-prescribed) have lower rates of ADEs among their diabetic patients. Risk of any patient with diabetes in the provider’s panel having an ADE from anti-diabetic medications was modeled adjusted for prescriber and patient panel characteristics. Physician e-prescribing to Medicare beneficiaries was associated with reduced risk of ADEs among their diabetes patients (Odds Ratio: 0.95; 95% CI, 0.94-0.96), as were several prescriber and panel characteristics. However, these physicians treated fewer patients from disadvantaged populations. PMID:25948698

Larval connectivity across temperature gradients and its potential effect on heat tolerance in coral populations.

PubMed

Kleypas, Joan A; Thompson, Diane M; Castruccio, Frederic S; Curchitser, Enrique N; Pinsky, Malin; Watson, James R

2016-11-01

Coral reefs are increasingly exposed to elevated temperatures that can cause coral bleaching and high levels of mortality of corals and associated organisms. The temperature threshold for coral bleaching depends on the acclimation and adaptation of corals to the local maximum temperature regime. However, because of larval dispersal, coral populations can receive larvae from corals that are adapted to very different temperature regimes. We combine an offline particle tracking routine with output from a high-resolution physical oceanographic model to investigate whether connectivity of coral larvae between reefs of different thermal regimes could alter the thermal stress threshold of corals. Our results suggest that larval transport between reefs of widely varying temperatures is likely in the Coral Triangle and that accounting for this connectivity may be important in bleaching predictions. This has important implications in conservation planning, because connectivity may allow some reefs to have an inherited heat tolerance that is higher or lower than predicted based on local conditions alone. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Forecast-based interventions can reduce the health and economic burden of wildfires.

PubMed

Rappold, Ana G; Fann, Neal L; Crooks, James; Huang, Jin; Cascio, Wayne E; Devlin, Robert B; Diaz-Sanchez, David

2014-09-16

We simulated public health forecast-based interventions during a wildfire smoke episode in rural North Carolina to show the potential for use of modeled smoke forecasts toward reducing the health burden and showed a significant economic benefit of reducing exposures. Daily and county wide intervention advisories were designed to occur when fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from smoke, forecasted 24 or 48 h in advance, was expected to exceed a predetermined threshold. Three different thresholds were considered in simulations, each with three different levels of adherence to the advisories. Interventions were simulated in the adult population susceptible to health exacerbations related to the chronic conditions of asthma and congestive heart failure. Associations between Emergency Department (ED) visits for these conditions and daily PM2.5 concentrations under each intervention were evaluated. Triggering interventions at lower PM2.5 thresholds (≤ 20 μg/m(3)) with good compliance yielded the greatest risk reduction. At the highest threshold levels (50 μg/m(3)) interventions were ineffective in reducing health risks at any level of compliance. The economic benefit of effective interventions exceeded $1 M in excess ED visits for asthma and heart failure, $2 M in loss of productivity, $100 K in respiratory conditions in children, and $42 million due to excess mortality.

Surgical motion characterization in simulated needle insertion procedures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holden, Matthew S.; Ungi, Tamas; Sargent, Derek; McGraw, Robert C.; Fichtinger, Gabor

2012-02-01

PURPOSE: Evaluation of surgical performance in image-guided needle insertions is of emerging interest, to both promote patient safety and improve the efficiency and effectiveness of training. The purpose of this study was to determine if a Markov model-based algorithm can more accurately segment a needle-based surgical procedure into its five constituent tasks than a simple threshold-based algorithm. METHODS: Simulated needle trajectories were generated with known ground truth segmentation by a synthetic procedural data generator, with random noise added to each degree of freedom of motion. The respective learning algorithms were trained, and then tested on different procedures to determine task segmentation accuracy. In the threshold-based algorithm, a change in tasks was detected when the needle crossed a position/velocity threshold. In the Markov model-based algorithm, task segmentation was performed by identifying the sequence of Markov models most likely to have produced the series of observations. RESULTS: For amplitudes of translational noise greater than 0.01mm, the Markov model-based algorithm was significantly more accurate in task segmentation than the threshold-based algorithm (82.3% vs. 49.9%, p<0.001 for amplitude 10.0mm). For amplitudes less than 0.01mm, the two algorithms produced insignificantly different results. CONCLUSION: Task segmentation of simulated needle insertion procedures was improved by using a Markov model-based algorithm as opposed to a threshold-based algorithm for procedures involving translational noise.

Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe

2017-09-01

The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce warning on a daily basis for the entire region.

Thresholds in forest bird occurrence as a function of the amount of early-seral broadleaf forest at landscape scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Betts, M.G.; Hagar, J.C.; Rivers, J.W.; Alexander, J.D.; McGarigal, K.; McComb, B.C.

2010-01-01

Recent declines in broadleaf-dominated, early-seral forest globally as a function of intensive forest management and/or fire suppression have raised concern about the viability of populations dependent on such forest types. However, quantitative information about the strength and direction of species associations with broadleaf cover at landscape scales are rare. Uncovering such habitat relationships is essential for understanding the demography of species and in developing sound conservation strategies. It is particularly important to detect points in habitat reduction where rates of population decline may accelerate or the likelihood of species occurrence drops rapidly (i.e., thresholds). Here, we use a large avian point-count data set (N = 4375) from southwestern and northwestern Oregon along with segmented logistic regression to test for thresholds in forest bird occurrence as a function of broadleaf forest and early-seral broadleaf forest at local (150-m radius) and landscape (500–2000-m radius) scales. All 12 bird species examined showed positive responses to either broadleaf forest in general, and/or early-seral broadleaf forest. However, regional variation in species response to these conditions was high. We found considerable evidence for landscape thresholds in bird species occurrence as a function of broadleaf cover; threshold models received substantially greater support than linear models for eight of 12 species. Landscape thresholds in broadleaf forest ranged broadly from 1.35% to 24.55% mean canopy cover. Early-seral broadleaf thresholds tended to be much lower (0.22–1.87%). We found a strong negative relationship between the strength of species association with early-seral broadleaf forest and 42-year bird population trends; species most associated with this forest type have declined at the greatest rates. Taken together, these results provide the first support for the hypothesis that reductions in broadleaf-dominated early-seral forest due to succession and intensive forest management have led to population declines of constituent species in the Pacific northwestern United States. Forest management treatments that maintain or restore even small amounts of broadleaf vegetation could mitigate further declines.

Generic picture of the emission properties of III-nitride polariton laser diodes: Steady state and current modulation response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iorsh, Ivan; Glauser, Marlene; Rossbach, Georg; Levrat, Jacques; Cobet, Munise; Butté, Raphaël; Grandjean, Nicolas; Kaliteevski, Mikhail A.; Abram, Richard A.; Kavokin, Alexey V.

2012-09-01

The main emission characteristics of electrically driven polariton lasers based on planar GaN microcavities with embedded InGaN quantum wells are studied theoretically. The polariton emission dependence on pump current density is first modeled using a set of semiclassical Boltzmann equations for the exciton polaritons that are coupled to the rate equation describing the electron-hole plasma population. Two experimentally relevant pumping geometries are considered, namely the direct injection of electrons and holes into the strongly coupled microcavity region and intracavity optical pumping via an embedded light-emitting diode. The theoretical framework allows the determination of the minimum threshold current density Jthr,min as a function of lattice temperature and exciton-cavity photon detuning for the two pumping schemes. A Jthr,min value of 5 and 6 A cm-2 is derived for the direct injection scheme and for the intracavity optical pumping one, respectively, at room temperature at the optimum detuning. Then an approximate quasianalytical model is introduced to derive solutions for both the steady-state and high-speed current modulation. This analysis makes it possible to show that the exciton population, which acts as a reservoir for the stimulated relaxation process, gets clamped once the condensation threshold is crossed, a behavior analogous to what happens in conventional laser diodes with the carrier density above threshold. Finally, the modulation transfer function is calculated for both pumping geometries and the corresponding cutoff frequency is determined.

The evolution of conditional dispersal and reproductive isolation along environmental gradients.

PubMed

Payne, Joshua L; Mazzucco, Rupert; Dieckmann, Ulf

2011-03-21

Dispersal modulates gene flow throughout a population's spatial range. Gene flow affects adaptation at local spatial scales, and consequently impacts the evolution of reproductive isolation. A recent theoretical investigation has demonstrated that local adaptation along an environmental gradient, facilitated by the evolution of limited dispersal, can lead to parapatric speciation even in the absence of assortative mating. This and other studies assumed unconditional dispersal, so individuals start dispersing without regard to local environmental conditions. However, many species disperse conditionally; their propensity to disperse is contingent upon environmental cues, such as the degree of local crowding or the availability of suitable mates. Here, we use an individual-based model in continuous space to investigate by numerical simulation the relationship between the evolution of threshold-based conditional dispersal and parapatric speciation driven by frequency-dependent competition along environmental gradients. We find that, as with unconditional dispersal, parapatric speciation occurs under a broad range of conditions when reproduction is asexual, and under a more restricted range of conditions when reproduction is sexual. In both the asexual and sexual cases, the evolution of conditional dispersal is strongly influenced by the slope of the environmental gradient: shallow environmental gradients result in low dispersal thresholds and high dispersal distances, while steep environmental gradients result in high dispersal thresholds and low dispersal distances. The latter, however, remain higher than under unconditional dispersal, thus undermining isolation by distance, and hindering speciation in sexual populations. Consequently, the speciation of sexual populations under conditional dispersal is triggered by a steeper gradient than under unconditional dispersal. Enhancing the disruptiveness of frequency-dependent selection, more box-shaped competition kernels dramatically lower the speciation-enabling slope of the environmental gradient. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global epidemic invasion thresholds in directed cattle subpopulation networks having source, sink, and transit nodes.

PubMed

Schumm, Phillip; Scoglio, Caterina; Zhang, Qian; Balcan, Duygu

2015-02-21

Through the characterization of a metapopulation cattle disease model on a directed network having source, transit, and sink nodes, we derive two global epidemic invasion thresholds. The first threshold defines the conditions necessary for an epidemic to successfully spread at the global scale. The second threshold defines the criteria that permit an epidemic to move out of the giant strongly connected component and to invade the populations of the sink nodes. As each sink node represents a final waypoint for cattle before slaughter, the existence of an epidemic among the sink nodes is a serious threat to food security. We find that the relationship between these two thresholds depends on the relative proportions of transit and sink nodes in the system and the distributions of the in-degrees of both node types. These analytic results are verified through numerical realizations of the metapopulation cattle model. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Growth dynamics and the evolution of cooperation in microbial populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cremer, Jonas; Melbinger, Anna; Frey, Erwin

2012-02-01

Microbes providing public goods are widespread in nature despite running the risk of being exploited by free-riders. However, the precise ecological factors supporting cooperation are still puzzling. Following recent experiments, we consider the role of population growth and the repetitive fragmentation of populations into new colonies mimicking simple microbial life-cycles. Individual-based modeling reveals that demographic fluctuations, which lead to a large variance in the composition of colonies, promote cooperation. Biased by population dynamics these fluctuations result in two qualitatively distinct regimes of robust cooperation under repetitive fragmentation into groups. First, if the level of cooperation exceeds a threshold, cooperators will take over the whole population. Second, cooperators can also emerge from a single mutant leading to a robust coexistence between cooperators and free-riders. We find frequency and size of population bottlenecks, and growth dynamics to be the major ecological factors determining the regimes and thereby the evolutionary pathway towards cooperation.

Odor Detection Thresholds in a Population of Older Adults

PubMed Central

Schubert, Carla R.; Fischer, Mary E.; Pinto, A. Alex; Klein, Barbara E.K.; Klein, Ronald; Cruickshanks, Karen J.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE To measure odor detection thresholds and associated nasal and behavioral factors in an older adult population. STUDY DESIGN Cross-sectional cohort study METHODS Odor detection thresholds were obtained using an automated olfactometer on 832 participants, aged 68–99 (mean age 77) years in the 21-year (2013–2016) follow-up visit of the Epidemiology of Hearing Loss Study. RESULTS The mean odor detection threshold (ODT) score was 8.2 (range: 1–13; standard deviation = 2.54), corresponding to a n-butanol concentration of slightly less than 0.03%. Older participants were significantly more likely to have lower (worse) ODT scores than younger participants (p<0.001). There were no significant differences in mean ODT scores between men and women. Older age was significantly associated with worse performance in multivariable regression models and exercising at least once a week was associated with a reduced odds of having a low (≤5) ODT score. Cognitive impairment was also associated with poor performance while a history of allergies or a deviated septum were associated with better performance. CONCLUSION Odor detection threshold scores were worse in older age groups but similar between men and women in this large population of older adults. Regular exercise was associated with better odor detection thresholds adding to the evidence that decline in olfactory function with age may be partly preventable. PMID:28000220

A study of life prediction differences for a nickel-base Alloy 690 using a threshold and a non-threshold model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Young, B. A.; Gao, Xiaosheng; Srivatsan, T. S.

2009-10-01

In this paper we compare and contrast the crack growth rate of a nickel-base superalloy (Alloy 690) in the Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) environment. Over the last few years, a preponderance of test data has been gathered on both Alloy 690 thick plate and Alloy 690 tubing. The original model, essentially based on a small data set for thick plate, compensated for temperature, load ratio and stress-intensity range but did not compensate for the fatigue threshold of the material. As additional test data on both plate and tube product became available the model was gradually revised to account for threshold properties. Both the original and revised models generated acceptable results for data that were above 1 × 10 -11 m/s. However, the test data at the lower growth rates were over-predicted by the non-threshold model. Since the original model did not take the fatigue threshold into account, this model predicted no operating stress below which the material would effectively undergo fatigue crack growth. Because of an over-prediction of the growth rate below 1 × 10 -11 m/s, due to a combination of low stress, small crack size and long rise-time, the model in general leads to an under-prediction of the total available life of the components.

Development of a population-based threshold model of conidial germination for analysing the effects of physiological manipulation on the stress tolerance and infectivity of insect pathogenic fungi.

PubMed

Andersen, M; Magan, N; Mead, A; Chandler, D

2006-09-01

Entomopathogenic fungi are being used as biocontrol agents of insect pests, but their efficacy can be poor in environments where water availability is reduced. In this study, the potential to improve biocontrol by physiologically manipulating fungal inoculum was investigated. Cultures of Beauveria bassiana, Lecanicillium muscarium, Lecanicillium longisporum, Metarhizium anisopliae and Paecilomyces fumosoroseus were manipulated by growing them under conditions of water stress, which produced conidia with increased concentrations of erythritol. The time-course of germination of conidia at different water activities (water activity, aw) was described using a generalized linear model, and in most cases reducing the water activity of the germination medium delayed the onset of germination without affecting the distribution of germination times. The germination of M. anisopliae, L. muscarium, L. longisporum and P. fumosoroseus was accelerated over a range of aw levels as a result of physiological manipulation. However, the relationship between the effect of physiological manipulation on germination and the osmolyte content of conidia varied according to fungal species. There was a linear relationship between germination rate, expressed as the reciprocal of germination time, and aw of the germination medium, but there was no significant effect of fungal species or physiological manipulation on the aw threshold for germination. In bioassays with M. anisopliae, physiologically manipulated conidia germinated more rapidly on the surface of an insect host, the melon cotton aphid Aphis gossypii, and fungal virulence was increased even when relative humidity was reduced after an initial high period. It is concluded that physiological manipulation may lead to improvements in biocontrol in the field, but choice of fungal species/isolate will be critical. In addition, the population-based threshold model used in this study, which considered germination in terms of physiological time, also called hydrotime, could have general application in mycology and environmental microbiology.

A threshold-based weather model for predicting stripe rust infection in winter wheat

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Wheat stripe rust (WSR) (caused by Puccinia striiformis sp. tritici) is a major threat in most wheat growing regions worldwide, with potential to inflict regular yield losses when environmental conditions are favorable. We propose a threshold-based disease-forecasting model using a stepwise modeling...

Absolute auditory threshold: testing the absolute.

PubMed

Heil, Peter; Matysiak, Artur

2017-11-02

The mechanisms underlying the detection of sounds in quiet, one of the simplest tasks for auditory systems, are debated. Several models proposed to explain the threshold for sounds in quiet and its dependence on sound parameters include a minimum sound intensity ('hard threshold'), below which sound has no effect on the ear. Also, many models are based on the assumption that threshold is mediated by integration of a neural response proportional to sound intensity. Here, we test these ideas. Using an adaptive forced choice procedure, we obtained thresholds of 95 normal-hearing human ears for 18 tones (3.125 kHz carrier) in quiet, each with a different temporal amplitude envelope. Grand-mean thresholds and standard deviations were well described by a probabilistic model according to which sensory events are generated by a Poisson point process with a low rate in the absence, and higher, time-varying rates in the presence, of stimulation. The subject actively evaluates the process and bases the decision on the number of events observed. The sound-driven rate of events is proportional to the temporal amplitude envelope of the bandpass-filtered sound raised to an exponent. We find no evidence for a hard threshold: When the model is extended to include such a threshold, the fit does not improve. Furthermore, we find an exponent of 3, consistent with our previous studies and further challenging models that are based on the assumption of the integration of a neural response that, at threshold sound levels, is directly proportional to sound amplitude or intensity. © 2017 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A critique of the use of indicator-species scores for identifying thresholds in species responses

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cuffney, Thomas F.; Qian, Song S.

2013-01-01

Identification of ecological thresholds is important both for theoretical and applied ecology. Recently, Baker and King (2010, King and Baker 2010) proposed a method, threshold indicator analysis (TITAN), to calculate species and community thresholds based on indicator species scores adapted from Dufrêne and Legendre (1997). We tested the ability of TITAN to detect thresholds using models with (broken-stick, disjointed broken-stick, dose-response, step-function, Gaussian) and without (linear) definitive thresholds. TITAN accurately and consistently detected thresholds in step-function models, but not in models characterized by abrupt changes in response slopes or response direction. Threshold detection in TITAN was very sensitive to the distribution of 0 values, which caused TITAN to identify thresholds associated with relatively small differences in the distribution of 0 values while ignoring thresholds associated with large changes in abundance. Threshold identification and tests of statistical significance were based on the same data permutations resulting in inflated estimates of statistical significance. Application of bootstrapping to the split-point problem that underlies TITAN led to underestimates of the confidence intervals of thresholds. Bias in the derivation of the z-scores used to identify TITAN thresholds and skewedness in the distribution of data along the gradient produced TITAN thresholds that were much more similar than the actual thresholds. This tendency may account for the synchronicity of thresholds reported in TITAN analyses. The thresholds identified by TITAN represented disparate characteristics of species responses that, when coupled with the inability of TITAN to identify thresholds accurately and consistently, does not support the aggregation of individual species thresholds into a community threshold.

Thresholds, injury, and loss relationships for thrips in Phleum pratense (Poales: Poaceae).

PubMed

Reisig, Dominic D; Godfrey, Larry D; Marcum, Daniel B

2009-12-01

Timothy (Phleum pratense L.) is an important forage crop in many Western U.S. states. Marketing of timothy hay is primarily based on esthetics, and green color is an important attribute. The objective of these studies was to determine a relationship between arthropod populations, yield, and esthetic injury in timothy. Economic injury levels (EILs) and economic thresholds were calculated based on these relationships. Thrips (Thripidae) numbers were manipulated with insecticides in small plot studies in 2006, 2007, and 2008, although tetranychid mite levels were incidentally flared by cyfluthrin in some experiments. Arthropod population densities were determined weekly, and yield and esthetic injury were measured at each harvest. Effects of arthropods on timothy were assessed using multilinear regression. Producers were also surveyed to relate economic loss from leaf color to the injury ratings for use in establishing EILs. Thrips population levels were significantly related to yield loss in only one of nine experiments. Thrips population levels were significantly related to injury once before the first annual harvest and twice before the second. Thrips were the most important pest in these experiments, and they were more often related to esthetic injury rather than yield loss. EILs and economic thresholds for thrips population levels were established using esthetic injury data. These results document the first example of a significant relationship between arthropod pest population levels and economic yield and quality losses in timothy.

Position Estimation for Switched Reluctance Motor Based on the Single Threshold Angle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lei; Li, Pang; Yu, Yue

2017-05-01

This paper presents a position estimate model of switched reluctance motor based on the single threshold angle. In view of the relationship of between the inductance and rotor position, the position is estimated by comparing the real-time dynamic flux linkage with the threshold angle position flux linkage (7.5° threshold angle, 12/8SRM). The sensorless model is built by Maltab/Simulink, the simulation are implemented under the steady state and transient state different condition, and verified its validity and feasibility of the method..

Assessing trade-offs to inform ecosystem-based fisheries management of forage fish

PubMed Central

Shelton, Andrew Olaf; Samhouri, Jameal F.; Stier, Adrian C.; Levin, Philip S.

2014-01-01

Twenty-first century conservation is centered on negotiating trade-offs between the diverse needs of people and the needs of the other species constituting coupled human-natural ecosystems. Marine forage fishes, such as sardines, anchovies, and herring, are a nexus for such trade-offs because they are both central nodes in marine food webs and targeted by fisheries. An important example is Pacific herring, Clupea pallisii in the Northeast Pacific. Herring populations are subject to two distinct fisheries: one that harvests adults and one that harvests spawned eggs. We develop stochastic, age-structured models to assess the interaction between fisheries, herring populations, and the persistence of predators reliant on herring populations. We show that egg- and adult-fishing have asymmetric effects on herring population dynamics - herring stocks can withstand higher levels of egg harvest before becoming depleted. Second, ecosystem thresholds proposed to ensure the persistence of herring predators do not necessarily pose more stringent constraints on fisheries than conventional, fishery driven harvest guidelines. Our approach provides a general template to evaluate ecosystem trade-offs between stage-specific harvest practices in relation to environmental variability, the risk of fishery closures, and the risk of exceeding ecosystem thresholds intended to ensure conservation goals are met. PMID:25407879

Determination of the threshold dose distribution in photodynamic action from in vitro experiments.

PubMed

de Faria, Clara Maria Gonçalves; Inada, Natalia Mayumi; Kurachi, Cristina; Bagnato, Vanderlei Salvador

2016-09-01

The concept of threshold in photodynamic action on cells or microorganisms is well observed in experiments but not fully explored on in vitro experiments. The intercomparison between light and used photosensitizer among many experiments is also poorly evaluated. In this report, we present an analytical model that allows extracting from the survival rate experiments the data of the threshold dose distribution, ie, the distribution of energies and photosensitizer concentration necessary to produce death of cells. Then, we use this model to investigate photodynamic therapy (PDT) data previously published in literature. The concept of threshold dose distribution instead of "single value of threshold" is a rich concept for the comparison of photodynamic action in different situations, allowing analyses of its efficiency as well as determination of optimized conditions for PDT. We observed that, in general, as it becomes more difficult to kill a population, the distribution tends to broaden, which means it presents a large spectrum of threshold values within the same cell type population. From the distribution parameters (center peak and full width), we also observed a clear distinction among cell types regarding their response to PDT that can be quantified. Comparing data obtained from the same cell line and used photosensitizer (PS), where the only distinct condition was the light source's wavelength, we found that the differences on the distribution parameters were comparable to the differences on the PS absorption. At last, we observed evidence that the threshold dose distribution matches the curve of apoptotic activity for some PSs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Threshold-dependent sample sizes for selenium assessment with stream fish tissue

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Smith, David R.

2015-01-01

Natural resource managers are developing assessments of selenium (Se) contamination in freshwater ecosystems based on fish tissue concentrations. We evaluated the effects of sample size (i.e., number of fish per site) on the probability of correctly detecting mean whole-body Se values above a range of potential management thresholds. We modeled Se concentrations as gamma distributions with shape and scale parameters fitting an empirical mean-to-variance relationship in data from southwestern West Virginia, USA (63 collections, 382 individuals). We used parametric bootstrapping techniques to calculate statistical power as the probability of detecting true mean concentrations up to 3 mg Se/kg above management thresholds ranging from 4 to 8 mg Se/kg. Sample sizes required to achieve 80% power varied as a function of management thresholds and Type I error tolerance (α). Higher thresholds required more samples than lower thresholds because populations were more heterogeneous at higher mean Se levels. For instance, to assess a management threshold of 4 mg Se/kg, a sample of eight fish could detect an increase of approximately 1 mg Se/kg with 80% power (given α = 0.05), but this sample size would be unable to detect such an increase from a management threshold of 8 mg Se/kg with more than a coin-flip probability. Increasing α decreased sample size requirements to detect above-threshold mean Se concentrations with 80% power. For instance, at an α-level of 0.05, an 8-fish sample could detect an increase of approximately 2 units above a threshold of 8 mg Se/kg with 80% power, but when α was relaxed to 0.2, this sample size was more sensitive to increasing mean Se concentrations, allowing detection of an increase of approximately 1.2 units with equivalent power. Combining individuals into 2- and 4-fish composite samples for laboratory analysis did not decrease power because the reduced number of laboratory samples was compensated for by increased precision of composites for estimating mean conditions. However, low sample sizes (<5 fish) did not achieve 80% power to detect near-threshold values (i.e., <1 mg Se/kg) under any scenario we evaluated. This analysis can assist the sampling design and interpretation of Se assessments from fish tissue by accounting for natural variation in stream fish populations.

Modeling spatially-varying landscape change points in species occurrence thresholds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wagner, Tyler; Midway, Stephen R.

2014-01-01

Predicting species distributions at scales of regions to continents is often necessary, as large-scale phenomena influence the distributions of spatially structured populations. Land use and land cover are important large-scale drivers of species distributions, and landscapes are known to create species occurrence thresholds, where small changes in a landscape characteristic results in abrupt changes in occurrence. The value of the landscape characteristic at which this change occurs is referred to as a change point. We present a hierarchical Bayesian threshold model (HBTM) that allows for estimating spatially varying parameters, including change points. Our model also allows for modeling estimated parameters in an effort to understand large-scale drivers of variability in land use and land cover on species occurrence thresholds. We use range-wide detection/nondetection data for the eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a stream-dwelling salmonid, to illustrate our HBTM for estimating and modeling spatially varying threshold parameters in species occurrence. We parameterized the model for investigating thresholds in landscape predictor variables that are measured as proportions, and which are therefore restricted to values between 0 and 1. Our HBTM estimated spatially varying thresholds in brook trout occurrence for both the proportion agricultural and urban land uses. There was relatively little spatial variation in change point estimates, although there was spatial variability in the overall shape of the threshold response and associated uncertainty. In addition, regional mean stream water temperature was correlated to the change point parameters for the proportion of urban land use, with the change point value increasing with increasing mean stream water temperature. We present a framework for quantify macrosystem variability in spatially varying threshold model parameters in relation to important large-scale drivers such as land use and land cover. Although the model presented is a logistic HBTM, it can easily be extended to accommodate other statistical distributions for modeling species richness or abundance.

Results of a Markov model analysis to assess the cost-effectiveness of statin therapy for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Korea: the Korean Individual-Microsimulation Model for Cardiovascular Health Interventions.

PubMed

Kang, Hye-Young; Ko, Su-Kyoung; Liew, Danny

2009-12-01

Although hyperlipidemia is well recognized as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), there has been no appraisal of the economic impact of statin therapy in Korea. The aim of this model analysis was to determine the cost-effectiveness of statin therapy versus no treatment for the primary prevention of CVD over a lifetime in Korea, from a health care system perspective. We developed the Korean Individual-Microsimulation Model for Cardiovascular Health Interventions (KIMCHI), an epidemiologic and economic Markov model of first-onset CVD in Korea in which all individuals began the simulation in the health state alive without CVD, and moved among the 4 health states (alive without CVD, alive with CVD, dead from CVD, and dead from non-CVD causes) in yearly cycles for any specified time horizon, up to 40 years. KIMCHI was populated with 372 subjects from the 2005 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (KNHNES) who were aged > or =45 years, did not have a history of myocardial infarction or ischemic stroke, and met current Korean reimbursement criteria for treatment with lipid-lowering medications. The probability of first-onset CVD was estimated for each study participant individually, based on an Asian population-specific risk equation that relied on an individual's sex, age, serum total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, current smoking status, diabetes mellitus status, and body mass index. Statin treatment was represented by a hybrid of atorvastatin and simvastatin (the most popular statins in Korea), the lipid-modifying effects of which were de rived from a published meta-analysis. Data regarding utilities and costs of CVD (both those covered and not covered by insurance) were derived from published local sources. In the base case, the estimated incremental costutility ratio was 15,134,284 Korean won (KRW) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, and the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was 20,657,829 KRW per life-year gained (LYG) (1200 KRW approximately US $1). Based on a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of 30 million KRW per QALY saved, there was a 93.7% probability that statin therapy would be cost-effective. Given a WTP threshold of 20 million KRW per QALY, there was a 53.8% probability of being cost-effective. The probabilities at WTP thresholds of 30 and 20 million KRW per LYG were 62.4% and 25.8%, respectively. Based on this analysis using data from the 2005 KNHNES and the KIMCHI model, statin therapy is likely to be cost-effective for the primary prevention of CVD among Koreans aged > or =45 years. The probability of being cost-effective was greater at a threshold of 30 million KRW per QALY (93.7%) than at 20 million KRW per QALY (53.8%). Copyright 2009 Excerpta Medica Inc. All rights reserved.

International study of temperature, heat and urban mortality: the 'ISOTHURM' project.

PubMed

McMichael, Anthony J; Wilkinson, Paul; Kovats, R Sari; Pattenden, Sam; Hajat, Shakoor; Armstrong, Ben; Vajanapoom, Nitaya; Niciu, Emilia M; Mahomed, Hassan; Kingkeow, Chamnong; Kosnik, Mitja; O'Neill, Marie S; Romieu, Isabelle; Ramirez-Aguilar, Matiana; Barreto, Mauricio L; Gouveia, Nelson; Nikiforov, Bojidar

2008-10-01

This study describes heat- and cold-related mortality in 12 urban populations in low- and middle-income countries, thereby extending knowledge of how diverse populations, in non-OECD countries, respond to temperature extremes. The cities were: Delhi, Monterrey, Mexico City, Chiang Mai, Bangkok, Salvador, São Paulo, Santiago, Cape Town, Ljubljana, Bucharest and Sofia. For each city, daily mortality was examined in relation to ambient temperature using autoregressive Poisson models (2- to 5-year series) adjusted for season, relative humidity, air pollution, day of week and public holidays. Most cities showed a U-shaped temperature-mortality relationship, with clear evidence of increasing death rates at colder temperatures in all cities except Ljubljana, Salvador and Delhi and with increasing heat in all cities except Chiang Mai and Cape Town. Estimates of the temperature threshold below which cold-related mortality began to increase ranged from 15 degrees C to 29 degrees C; the threshold for heat-related deaths ranged from 16 degrees C to 31 degrees C. Heat thresholds were generally higher in cities with warmer climates, while cold thresholds were unrelated to climate. Urban populations, in diverse geographic settings, experience increases in mortality due to both high and low temperatures. The effects of heat and cold vary depending on climate and non-climate factors such as the population disease profile and age structure. Although such populations will undergo some adaptation to increasing temperatures, many are likely to have substantial vulnerability to climate change. Additional research is needed to elucidate vulnerability within populations.

Quantitative assessment model for gastric cancer screening

PubMed Central

Chen, Kun; Yu, Wei-Ping; Song, Liang; Zhu, Yi-Min

2005-01-01

AIM: To set up a mathematic model for gastric cancer screening and to evaluate its function in mass screening for gastric cancer. METHODS: A case control study was carried on in 66 patients and 198 normal people, then the risk and protective factors of gastric cancer were determined, including heavy manual work, foods such as small yellow-fin tuna, dried small shrimps, squills, crabs, mothers suffering from gastric diseases, spouse alive, use of refrigerators and hot food, etc. According to some principles and methods of probability and fuzzy mathematics, a quantitative assessment model was established as follows: first, we selected some factors significant in statistics, and calculated weight coefficient for each one by two different methods; second, population space was divided into gastric cancer fuzzy subset and non gastric cancer fuzzy subset, then a mathematic model for each subset was established, we got a mathematic expression of attribute degree (AD). RESULTS: Based on the data of 63 patients and 693 normal people, AD of each subject was calculated. Considering the sensitivity and specificity, the thresholds of AD values calculated were configured with 0.20 and 0.17, respectively. According to these thresholds, the sensitivity and specificity of the quantitative model were about 69% and 63%. Moreover, statistical test showed that the identification outcomes of these two different calculation methods were identical (P>0.05). CONCLUSION: The validity of this method is satisfactory. It is convenient, feasible, economic and can be used to determine individual and population risks of gastric cancer. PMID:15655813

Patterns of motor recruitment can be determined using surface EMG.

PubMed

Wakeling, James M

2009-04-01

Previous studies have reported how different populations of motor units (MUs) can be recruited during dynamic and locomotor tasks. It was hypothesised that the higher-threshold units would contribute higher-frequency components to the sEMG spectra due to their faster conduction velocities, and thus recruitment patterns that increase the proportion of high-threshold units active would lead to higher-frequency elements in the sEMG spectra. This idea was tested by using a model of varying recruitment coupled to a three-layer volume conductor model to generate a series of sEMG signals. The recruitment varied from (A) orderly recruitment where the lowest-threshold MUs were initially activated and higher-threshold MUs were sequentially recruited as the contraction progressed, (B) a recurrent inhibition model that started with orderly recruitment, but as the higher-threshold units were activated they inhibited the lower-threshold MUs (C) nine models with intermediate properties that were graded between these two extremes. The sEMG was processed using wavelet analysis and the spectral properties quantified by their mean frequency, and an angle theta that was determined from the principal components of the spectra. Recruitment strategies that resulted in a greater proportion of faster MUs being active had a significantly lower theta and higher mean frequency.

Assessing the potential risk of Zika virus epidemics in temperate areas with established Aedes albopictus populations.

PubMed

Guzzetta, Giorgio; Poletti, Piero; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Baldacchino, Frederic; Capelli, Gioia; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Rosà, Roberto; Merler, Stefano

2016-04-14

Based on 2015 abundance of Aedes albopictus in nine northern Italian municipalities with temperate continental/oceanic climate, we estimated the basic reproductive number R0 for Zika virus (ZIKV) to be systematically below the epidemic threshold in most scenarios. Results were sensitive to the value of the probability of mosquito infection after biting a viraemic host. Therefore, further studies are required to improve models and predictions, namely evaluating vector competence and potential non-vector transmissions.

Symmetry breaking in two interacting populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons.

PubMed

Ratas, Irmantas; Pyragas, Kestutis

2017-10-01

We analyze the dynamics of two coupled identical populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons, which represent the canonical model for class I neurons near the spiking threshold. The populations are heterogeneous; they include both inherently spiking and excitable neurons. The coupling within and between the populations is global via synapses that take into account the finite width of synaptic pulses. Using a recently developed reduction method based on the Lorentzian ansatz, we derive a closed system of equations for the neuron's firing rates and the mean membrane potentials in both populations. The reduced equations are exact in the infinite-size limit. The bifurcation analysis of the equations reveals a rich variety of nonsymmetric patterns, including a splay state, antiphase periodic oscillations, chimera-like states, and chaotic oscillations as well as bistabilities between various states. The validity of the reduced equations is confirmed by direct numerical simulations of the finite-size networks.

Symmetry breaking in two interacting populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ratas, Irmantas; Pyragas, Kestutis

2017-10-01

We analyze the dynamics of two coupled identical populations of quadratic integrate-and-fire neurons, which represent the canonical model for class I neurons near the spiking threshold. The populations are heterogeneous; they include both inherently spiking and excitable neurons. The coupling within and between the populations is global via synapses that take into account the finite width of synaptic pulses. Using a recently developed reduction method based on the Lorentzian ansatz, we derive a closed system of equations for the neuron's firing rates and the mean membrane potentials in both populations. The reduced equations are exact in the infinite-size limit. The bifurcation analysis of the equations reveals a rich variety of nonsymmetric patterns, including a splay state, antiphase periodic oscillations, chimera-like states, and chaotic oscillations as well as bistabilities between various states. The validity of the reduced equations is confirmed by direct numerical simulations of the finite-size networks.

Combining inferences from models of capture efficiency, detectability, and suitable habitat to classify landscapes for conservation of threatened bull trout

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, J.; Dunham, J.B.

2003-01-01

Effective conservation efforts for at-risk species require knowledge of the locations of existing populations. Species presence can be estimated directly by conducting field-sampling surveys or alternatively by developing predictive models. Direct surveys can be expensive and inefficient, particularly for rare and difficult-to-sample species, and models of species presence may produce biased predictions. We present a Bayesian approach that combines sampling and model-based inferences for estimating species presence. The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of this approach were compared to those of sampling surveys and predictive models for estimating the presence of the threatened bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) via simulation with existing models and empirical sampling data. Simulations indicated that a sampling-only approach would be the most effective and would result in the lowest presence and absence misclassification error rates for three thresholds of detection probability. When sampling effort was considered, however, the combined approach resulted in the lowest error rates per unit of sampling effort. Hence, lower probability-of-detection thresholds can be specified with the combined approach, resulting in lower misclassification error rates and improved cost-effectiveness.

Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of debris flows at La Honda, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, R.C.; Wieczorek, G.F.

1995-01-01

A simple numerical model, based on the physical analogy of a leaky barrel, can simulate significant features of the interaction between rainfall and shallow-hillslope pore pressures. The leaky-barrel-model threshold is consistent with, but slightly higher than, an earlier, purely empirical, threshold. The number of debris flows triggered by a storm can be related to the time and amount by which the leaky-barrel-model response exceeded the threshold during the storm. -from Authors

Solid pulmonary nodule risk assessment and decision analysis: comparison of four prediction models in 285 cases.

PubMed

Perandini, Simone; Soardi, Gian Alberto; Motton, Massimiliano; Rossi, Arianna; Signorini, Manuel; Montemezzi, Stefania

2016-09-01

The aim of this study was to compare classification results from four major risk prediction models in a wide population of incidentally detected solitary pulmonary nodules (SPNs) which were selected to crossmatch inclusion criteria for the selected models. A total of 285 solitary pulmonary nodules with a definitive diagnosis were evaluated by means of four major risk assessment models developed from non-screening populations, namely the Mayo, Gurney, PKUPH and BIMC models. Accuracy was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) area under the curve (AUC) analysis. Each model's fitness to provide reliable help in decision analysis was primarily assessed by adopting a surgical threshold of 65 % and an observation threshold of 5 % as suggested by ACCP guidelines. ROC AUC values, false positives, false negatives and indeterminate nodules were respectively 0.775, 3, 8, 227 (Mayo); 0.794, 41, 6, 125 (Gurney); 0.889, 42, 0, 144 (PKUPH); 0.898, 16, 0, 118 (BIMC). Resultant data suggests that the BIMC model may be of greater help than Mayo, Gurney and PKUPH models in preoperative SPN characterization when using ACCP risk thresholds because of overall better accuracy and smaller numbers of indeterminate nodules and false positive results. • The BIMC and PKUPH models offer better characterization than older prediction models • Both the PKUPH and BIMC models completely avoided false negative results • The Mayo model suffers from a large number of indeterminate results.

Assessing regional and interspecific variation in threshold responses of forest breeding birds through broad scale analyses.

PubMed

van der Hoek, Yntze; Renfrew, Rosalind; Manne, Lisa L

2013-01-01

Identifying persistence and extinction thresholds in species-habitat relationships is a major focal point of ecological research and conservation. However, one major concern regarding the incorporation of threshold analyses in conservation is the lack of knowledge on the generality and transferability of results across species and regions. We present a multi-region, multi-species approach of modeling threshold responses, which we use to investigate whether threshold effects are similar across species and regions. We modeled local persistence and extinction dynamics of 25 forest-associated breeding birds based on detection/non-detection data, which were derived from repeated breeding bird atlases for the state of Vermont. We did not find threshold responses to be particularly well-supported, with 9 species supporting extinction thresholds and 5 supporting persistence thresholds. This contrasts with a previous study based on breeding bird atlas data from adjacent New York State, which showed that most species support persistence and extinction threshold models (15 and 22 of 25 study species respectively). In addition, species that supported a threshold model in both states had associated average threshold estimates of 61.41% (SE = 6.11, persistence) and 66.45% (SE = 9.15, extinction) in New York, compared to 51.08% (SE = 10.60, persistence) and 73.67% (SE = 5.70, extinction) in Vermont. Across species, thresholds were found at 19.45-87.96% forest cover for persistence and 50.82-91.02% for extinction dynamics. Through an approach that allows for broad-scale comparisons of threshold responses, we show that species vary in their threshold responses with regard to habitat amount, and that differences between even nearby regions can be pronounced. We present both ecological and methodological factors that may contribute to the different model results, but propose that regardless of the reasons behind these differences, our results merit a warning that threshold values cannot simply be transferred across regions or interpreted as clear-cut targets for ecosystem management and conservation.

[Hypercholesterolemia-related cardiovascular risk: a continuum from a notion of normality, intervention threshold and therapeutic objectives].

PubMed

Scheen, A J

1999-01-01

There appears to be a continuum between the cardiovascular risk and the level of blood cholesterol, which hinders the definition of normal values, intervention threshold and therapeutic goals. The more and more convincing evidences provided by the "Evidence-Based Medicine" should be confronted to the pharmaco-economical constraints in order to first focus the essential of the efforts and resources on the target population with the highest risk. Unfortunately, the therapeutic strategy concerns a rather high percentage of the population of industrialized countries.

Fall Detection in Individuals With Lower Limb Amputations Using Mobile Phones: Machine Learning Enhances Robustness for Real-World Applications.

PubMed

Shawen, Nicholas; Lonini, Luca; Mummidisetty, Chaithanya Krishna; Shparii, Ilona; Albert, Mark V; Kording, Konrad; Jayaraman, Arun

2017-10-11

Automatically detecting falls with mobile phones provides an opportunity for rapid response to injuries and better knowledge of what precipitated the fall and its consequences. This is beneficial for populations that are prone to falling, such as people with lower limb amputations. Prior studies have focused on fall detection in able-bodied individuals using data from a laboratory setting. Such approaches may provide a limited ability to detect falls in amputees and in real-world scenarios. The aim was to develop a classifier that uses data from able-bodied individuals to detect falls in individuals with a lower limb amputation, while they freely carry the mobile phone in different locations and during free-living. We obtained 861 simulated indoor and outdoor falls from 10 young control (non-amputee) individuals and 6 individuals with a lower limb amputation. In addition, we recorded a broad database of activities of daily living, including data from three participants' free-living routines. Sensor readings (accelerometer and gyroscope) from a mobile phone were recorded as participants freely carried it in three common locations-on the waist, in a pocket, and in the hand. A set of 40 features were computed from the sensors data and four classifiers were trained and combined through stacking to detect falls. We compared the performance of two population-specific models, trained and tested on either able-bodied or amputee participants, with that of a model trained on able-bodied participants and tested on amputees. A simple threshold-based classifier was used to benchmark our machine-learning classifier. The accuracy of fall detection in amputees for a model trained on control individuals (sensitivity: mean 0.989, 1.96*standard error of the mean [SEM] 0.017; specificity: mean 0.968, SEM 0.025) was not statistically different (P=.69) from that of a model trained on the amputee population (sensitivity: mean 0.984, SEM 0.016; specificity: mean 0.965, SEM 0.022). Detection of falls in control individuals yielded similar results (sensitivity: mean 0.979, SEM 0.022; specificity: mean 0.991, SEM 0.012). A mean 2.2 (SD 1.7) false alarms per day were obtained when evaluating the model (vs mean 122.1, SD 166.1 based on thresholds) on data recorded as participants carried the phone during their daily routine for two or more days. Machine-learning classifiers outperformed the threshold-based one (P<.001). A mobile phone-based fall detection model can use data from non-amputee individuals to detect falls in individuals walking with a prosthesis. We successfully detected falls when the mobile phone was carried across multiple locations and without a predetermined orientation. Furthermore, the number of false alarms yielded by the model over a longer period of time was reasonably low. This moves the application of mobile phone-based fall detection systems closer to a real-world use case scenario. ©Nicholas Shawen, Luca Lonini, Chaithanya Krishna Mummidisetty, Ilona Shparii, Mark V Albert, Konrad Kording, Arun Jayaraman. Originally published in JMIR Mhealth and Uhealth (http://mhealth.jmir.org), 11.10.2017.

An adaptive design for updating the threshold value of a continuous biomarker

PubMed Central

Spencer, Amy V.; Harbron, Chris; Mander, Adrian; Wason, James; Peers, Ian

2017-01-01

Potential predictive biomarkers are often measured on a continuous scale, but in practice, a threshold value to divide the patient population into biomarker ‘positive’ and ‘negative’ is desirable. Early phase clinical trials are increasingly using biomarkers for patient selection, but at this stage, it is likely that little will be known about the relationship between the biomarker and the treatment outcome. We describe a single-arm trial design with adaptive enrichment, which can increase power to demonstrate efficacy within a patient subpopulation, the parameters of which are also estimated. Our design enables us to learn about the biomarker and optimally adjust the threshold during the study, using a combination of generalised linear modelling and Bayesian prediction. At the final analysis, a binomial exact test is carried out, allowing the hypothesis that ‘no population subset exists in which the novel treatment has a desirable response rate’ to be tested. Through extensive simulations, we are able to show increased power over fixed threshold methods in many situations without increasing the type-I error rate. We also show that estimates of the threshold, which defines the population subset, are unbiased and often more precise than those from fixed threshold studies. We provide an example of the method applied (retrospectively) to publically available data from a study of the use of tamoxifen after mastectomy by the German Breast Study Group, where progesterone receptor is the biomarker of interest. PMID:27417407

Methods for inferring health-related social networks among coworkers from online communication patterns.

PubMed

Matthews, Luke J; DeWan, Peter; Rula, Elizabeth Y

2013-01-01

Studies of social networks, mapped using self-reported contacts, have demonstrated the strong influence of social connections on the propensity for individuals to adopt or maintain healthy behaviors and on their likelihood to adopt health risks such as obesity. Social network analysis may prove useful for businesses and organizations that wish to improve the health of their populations by identifying key network positions. Health traits have been shown to correlate across friendship ties, but evaluating network effects in large coworker populations presents the challenge of obtaining sufficiently comprehensive network data. The purpose of this study was to evaluate methods for using online communication data to generate comprehensive network maps that reproduce the health-associated properties of an offline social network. In this study, we examined three techniques for inferring social relationships from email traffic data in an employee population using thresholds based on: (1) the absolute number of emails exchanged, (2) logistic regression probability of an offline relationship, and (3) the highest ranked email exchange partners. As a model of the offline social network in the same population, a network map was created using social ties reported in a survey instrument. The email networks were evaluated based on the proportion of survey ties captured, comparisons of common network metrics, and autocorrelation of body mass index (BMI) across social ties. Results demonstrated that logistic regression predicted the greatest proportion of offline social ties, thresholding on number of emails exchanged produced the best match to offline network metrics, and ranked email partners demonstrated the strongest autocorrelation of BMI. Since each method had unique strengths, researchers should choose a method based on the aspects of offline behavior of interest. Ranked email partners may be particularly useful for purposes related to health traits in a social network.

Methods for Inferring Health-Related Social Networks among Coworkers from Online Communication Patterns

PubMed Central

Matthews, Luke J.; DeWan, Peter; Rula, Elizabeth Y.

2013-01-01

Studies of social networks, mapped using self-reported contacts, have demonstrated the strong influence of social connections on the propensity for individuals to adopt or maintain healthy behaviors and on their likelihood to adopt health risks such as obesity. Social network analysis may prove useful for businesses and organizations that wish to improve the health of their populations by identifying key network positions. Health traits have been shown to correlate across friendship ties, but evaluating network effects in large coworker populations presents the challenge of obtaining sufficiently comprehensive network data. The purpose of this study was to evaluate methods for using online communication data to generate comprehensive network maps that reproduce the health-associated properties of an offline social network. In this study, we examined three techniques for inferring social relationships from email traffic data in an employee population using thresholds based on: (1) the absolute number of emails exchanged, (2) logistic regression probability of an offline relationship, and (3) the highest ranked email exchange partners. As a model of the offline social network in the same population, a network map was created using social ties reported in a survey instrument. The email networks were evaluated based on the proportion of survey ties captured, comparisons of common network metrics, and autocorrelation of body mass index (BMI) across social ties. Results demonstrated that logistic regression predicted the greatest proportion of offline social ties, thresholding on number of emails exchanged produced the best match to offline network metrics, and ranked email partners demonstrated the strongest autocorrelation of BMI. Since each method had unique strengths, researchers should choose a method based on the aspects of offline behavior of interest. Ranked email partners may be particularly useful for purposes related to health traits in a social network. PMID:23418436

Development and Current Status of the “Cambridge” Loudness Models

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

This article reviews the evolution of a series of models of loudness developed in Cambridge, UK. The first model, applicable to stationary sounds, was based on modifications of the model developed by Zwicker, including the introduction of a filter to allow for the effects of transfer of sound through the outer and middle ear prior to the calculation of an excitation pattern, and changes in the way that the excitation pattern was calculated. Later, modifications were introduced to the assumed middle-ear transfer function and to the way that specific loudness was calculated from excitation level. These modifications led to a finite calculated loudness at absolute threshold, which made it possible to predict accurately the absolute thresholds of broadband and narrowband sounds, based on the assumption that the absolute threshold corresponds to a fixed small loudness. The model was also modified to give predictions of partial loudness—the loudness of one sound in the presence of another. This allowed predictions of masked thresholds based on the assumption that the masked threshold corresponds to a fixed small partial loudness. Versions of the model for time-varying sounds were developed, which allowed prediction of the masked threshold of any sound in a background of any other sound. More recent extensions incorporate binaural processing to account for the summation of loudness across ears. In parallel, versions of the model for predicting loudness for hearing-impaired ears have been developed and have been applied to the development of methods for fitting multichannel compression hearing aids. PMID:25315375

Contextual Interactions in Grating Plaid Configurations Are Explained by Natural Image Statistics and Neural Modeling

PubMed Central

Ernst, Udo A.; Schiffer, Alina; Persike, Malte; Meinhardt, Günter

2016-01-01

Processing natural scenes requires the visual system to integrate local features into global object descriptions. To achieve coherent representations, the human brain uses statistical dependencies to guide weighting of local feature conjunctions. Pairwise interactions among feature detectors in early visual areas may form the early substrate of these local feature bindings. To investigate local interaction structures in visual cortex, we combined psychophysical experiments with computational modeling and natural scene analysis. We first measured contrast thresholds for 2 × 2 grating patch arrangements (plaids), which differed in spatial frequency composition (low, high, or mixed), number of grating patch co-alignments (0, 1, or 2), and inter-patch distances (1° and 2° of visual angle). Contrast thresholds for the different configurations were compared to the prediction of probability summation (PS) among detector families tuned to the four retinal positions. For 1° distance the thresholds for all configurations were larger than predicted by PS, indicating inhibitory interactions. For 2° distance, thresholds were significantly lower compared to PS when the plaids were homogeneous in spatial frequency and orientation, but not when spatial frequencies were mixed or there was at least one misalignment. Next, we constructed a neural population model with horizontal laminar structure, which reproduced the detection thresholds after adaptation of connection weights. Consistent with prior work, contextual interactions were medium-range inhibition and long-range, orientation-specific excitation. However, inclusion of orientation-specific, inhibitory interactions between populations with different spatial frequency preferences were crucial for explaining detection thresholds. Finally, for all plaid configurations we computed their likelihood of occurrence in natural images. The likelihoods turned out to be inversely related to the detection thresholds obtained at larger inter-patch distances. However, likelihoods were almost independent of inter-patch distance, implying that natural image statistics could not explain the crowding-like results at short distances. This failure of natural image statistics to resolve the patch distance modulation of plaid visibility remains a challenge to the approach. PMID:27757076

Determination of the interfacial rheological properties of a PLA encapsulated contrast agent using in vitro attenuation and scattering

PubMed Central

Paul, Shirshendu; Russakow, Daniel; Rodgers, Tyler; Sarkar, Kausik; Cochran, Michael; Wheatley, Margaret

2013-01-01

The stabilizing encapsulation of a microbubble based ultrasound contrast agent (UCA) critically affects its acoustic properties. Polymers, which behave differently from commonly used materials—e.g. lipids or proteins—for the monolayer encapsulation, hold potential for better stability and control over encapsulation properties. Air-filled microbubbles coated with Poly (D, L-lactide) (PLA) are characterized here using in vitro acoustic experiments and several models of encapsulation. The interfacial rheological properties of the encapsulation are determined according to each of these models using attenuation of ultrasound through a suspension of these microbubbles. Then the model predictions are compared with scattered nonlinear—sub- and second harmonic—responses. For this microbubble population (average diameter 1.9 μm), the peak in attenuation measurement indicates a weighted average resonance frequency of 2.5–3 MHz, which, in contrast to other encapsulated microbubbles, is lower than the resonance frequency of a free bubble of similar size (diameter 1.9 μm). This apparently contradictory result stems from the extremely low surface dilatational elasticity (around 0.01–0.07 N/m) and the reduced surface tension of the PLA encapsulation as well as the polydispersity of the bubble population. All models considered here are shown to behave similarly even in the nonlinear regime because of the low value of the surface dilatational elasticity. Pressure dependent scattering measurements at two different excitation frequencies (2.25 and 3 MHz) show strongly non-linear behavior with 25–30 dB and 5–20 dB enhancements in fundamental and second-harmonic responses respectively for a concentration of 1.33 μg/mL of suspension. Subharmonic responses are registered above a relatively low generation threshold of 100–150 kPa with up to 20 dB enhancement beyond that pressure. Numerical predictions from all models show good agreement with the experimentally measured fundamental response, but not with the second harmonic response. The characteristic features of subharmonic response and the steady response beyond the threshold are matched well by model predictions. However, prediction of the threshold value depends on property values and the size distribution. The variation in size distribution from sample to sample leads to variation in estimated encapsulation property values—the lowest estimated value of surface dilatational viscosity better predicts the subharmonic threshold. PMID:23643050

Glottal flow through a two-mass model: comparison of Navier-Stokes solutions with simplified models.

PubMed

de Vries, M P; Schutte, H K; Veldman, A E P; Verkerke, G J

2002-04-01

A new numerical model of the vocal folds is presented based on the well-known two-mass models of the vocal folds. The two-mass model is coupled to a model of glottal airflow based on the incompressible Navier-Stokes equations. Glottal waves are produced using different initial glottal gaps and different subglottal pressures. Fundamental frequency, glottal peak flow, and closed phase of the glottal waves have been compared with values known from the literature. The phonation threshold pressure was determined for different initial glottal gaps. The phonation threshold pressure obtained using the flow model with Navier-Stokes equations corresponds better to values determined in normal phonation than the phonation threshold pressure obtained using the flow model based on the Bernoulli equation. Using the Navier-Stokes equations, an increase of the subglottal pressure causes the fundamental frequency and the glottal peak flow to increase, whereas the fundamental frequency in the Bernoulli-based model does not change with increasing pressure.

Exploring the Benefits of Molecular Testing for Gonorrhoea Antibiotic Resistance Surveillance in Remote Settings.

PubMed

Hui, Ben B; Ryder, Nathan; Su, Jiunn-Yih; Ward, James; Chen, Marcus Y; Donovan, Basil; Fairley, Christopher K; Guy, Rebecca J; Lahra, Monica M; Law, Mathew G; Whiley, David M; Regan, David G

2015-01-01

Surveillance for gonorrhoea antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is compromised by a move away from culture-based testing in favour of more convenient nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) tests. We assessed the potential benefit of a molecular resistance test in terms of the timeliness of detection of gonorrhoea AMR. An individual-based mathematical model was developed to describe the transmission of gonorrhoea in a remote Indigenous population in Australia. We estimated the impact of the molecular test on the time delay between first importation and the first confirmation that the prevalence of gonorrhoea AMR (resistance proportion) has breached the WHO-recommended 5% threshold (when a change in antibiotic should occur). In the remote setting evaluated in this study, the model predicts that when culture is the only available means of testing for AMR, the breach will only be detected when the actual prevalence of AMR in the population has already reached 8 - 18%, with an associated delay of ~43 - 69 months between first importation and detection. With the addition of a molecular resistance test, the number of samples for which AMR can be determined increases facilitating earlier detection at a lower resistance proportion. For the best case scenario, where AMR can be determined for all diagnostic samples, the alert would be triggered at least 8 months earlier than using culture alone and the resistance proportion will have only slightly exceeded the 5% notification threshold. Molecular tests have the potential to provide more timely warning of the emergence of gonorrhoea AMR. This in turn will facilitate earlier treatment switching and more targeted treatment, which has the potential to reduce the population impact of gonorrhoea AMR.

Exploring the Benefits of Molecular Testing for Gonorrhoea Antibiotic Resistance Surveillance in Remote Settings

PubMed Central

Hui, Ben B.; Ryder, Nathan; Su, Jiunn-Yih; Ward, James; Chen, Marcus Y.; Donovan, Basil; Fairley, Christopher K.; Guy, Rebecca J.; Lahra, Monica M.; Law, Mathew G.; Whiley, David M.; Regan, David G.

2015-01-01

Background Surveillance for gonorrhoea antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is compromised by a move away from culture-based testing in favour of more convenient nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) tests. We assessed the potential benefit of a molecular resistance test in terms of the timeliness of detection of gonorrhoea AMR. Methods and Findings An individual-based mathematical model was developed to describe the transmission of gonorrhoea in a remote Indigenous population in Australia. We estimated the impact of the molecular test on the time delay between first importation and the first confirmation that the prevalence of gonorrhoea AMR (resistance proportion) has breached the WHO-recommended 5% threshold (when a change in antibiotic should occur). In the remote setting evaluated in this study, the model predicts that when culture is the only available means of testing for AMR, the breach will only be detected when the actual prevalence of AMR in the population has already reached 8 – 18%, with an associated delay of ~43 – 69 months between first importation and detection. With the addition of a molecular resistance test, the number of samples for which AMR can be determined increases facilitating earlier detection at a lower resistance proportion. For the best case scenario, where AMR can be determined for all diagnostic samples, the alert would be triggered at least 8 months earlier than using culture alone and the resistance proportion will have only slightly exceeded the 5% notification threshold. Conclusions Molecular tests have the potential to provide more timely warning of the emergence of gonorrhoea AMR. This in turn will facilitate earlier treatment switching and more targeted treatment, which has the potential to reduce the population impact of gonorrhoea AMR. PMID:26181042

Susceptible-infected-recovered epidemics in random networks with population awareness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Qingchu; Chen, Shufang

2017-10-01

The influence of epidemic information-based awareness on the spread of infectious diseases on networks cannot be ignored. Within the effective degree modeling framework, we discuss the susceptible-infected-recovered model in complex networks with general awareness and general degree distribution. By performing the linear stability analysis, the conditions of epidemic outbreak can be deduced and the results of the previous research can be further expanded. Results show that the local awareness can suppress significantly the epidemic spreading on complex networks via raising the epidemic threshold and such effects are closely related to the formulation of awareness functions. In addition, our results suggest that the recovered information-based awareness has no effect on the critical condition of epidemic outbreak.

Public sector low threshold office-based buprenorphine treatment: outcomes at year 7.

PubMed

Bhatraju, Elenore Patterson; Grossman, Ellie; Tofighi, Babak; McNeely, Jennifer; DiRocco, Danae; Flannery, Mara; Garment, Ann; Goldfeld, Keith; Gourevitch, Marc N; Lee, Joshua D

2017-02-28

Buprenorphine maintenance for opioid dependence remains of limited availability among underserved populations, despite increases in US opioid misuse and overdose deaths. Low threshold primary care treatment models including the use of unobserved, "home," buprenorphine induction may simplify initiation of care and improve access. Unobserved induction and long-term treatment outcomes have not been reported recently among large, naturalistic cohorts treated in low threshold safety net primary care settings. This prospective clinical registry cohort design estimated rates of induction-related adverse events, treatment retention, and urine opioid results for opioid dependent adults offered buprenorphine maintenance in a New York City public hospital primary care office-based practice from 2006 to 2013. This clinic relied on typical ambulatory care individual provider-patient visits, prescribed unobserved induction exclusively, saw patients no more than weekly, and did not require additional psychosocial treatment. Unobserved induction consisted of an in-person screening and diagnostic visit followed by a 1-week buprenorphine written prescription, with pamphlet, and telephone support. Primary outcomes analyzed were rates of induction-related adverse events (AE), week 1 drop-out, and long-term treatment retention. Factors associated with treatment retention were examined using a Cox proportional hazard model among inductions and all patients. Secondary outcomes included overall clinic retention, buprenorphine dosages, and urine sample results. Of the 485 total patients in our registry, 306 were inducted, and 179 were transfers already on buprenorphine. Post-induction (n = 306), week 1 drop-out was 17%. Rates of any induction-related AE were 12%; serious adverse events, 0%; precipitated withdrawal, 3%; prolonged withdrawal, 4%. Treatment retention was a median 38 weeks (range 0-320) for inductions, compared to 110 (0-354) weeks for transfers and 57 for the entire clinic population. Older age, later years of first clinic visit (vs. 2006-2007), and baseline heroin abstinence were associated with increased treatment retention overall. Unobserved "home" buprenorphine induction in a public sector primary care setting appeared a feasible and safe clinical practice. Post-induction treatment retention of a median 38 weeks was in line with previous naturalistic studies of real-world office-based opioid treatment. Low threshold treatment protocols, as compared to national guidelines, may compliment recently increased prescriber patient limits and expand access to buprenorphine among public sector opioid use disorder patients.

A threshold method for immunological correlates of protection

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Immunological correlates of protection are biological markers such as disease-specific antibodies which correlate with protection against disease and which are measurable with immunological assays. It is common in vaccine research and in setting immunization policy to rely on threshold values for the correlate where the accepted threshold differentiates between individuals who are considered to be protected against disease and those who are susceptible. Examples where thresholds are used include development of a new generation 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine which was required in clinical trials to meet accepted thresholds for the older 7-valent vaccine, and public health decision making on vaccination policy based on long-term maintenance of protective thresholds for Hepatitis A, rubella, measles, Japanese encephalitis and others. Despite widespread use of such thresholds in vaccine policy and research, few statistical approaches have been formally developed which specifically incorporate a threshold parameter in order to estimate the value of the protective threshold from data. Methods We propose a 3-parameter statistical model called the a:b model which incorporates parameters for a threshold and constant but different infection probabilities below and above the threshold estimated using profile likelihood or least squares methods. Evaluation of the estimated threshold can be performed by a significance test for the existence of a threshold using a modified likelihood ratio test which follows a chi-squared distribution with 3 degrees of freedom, and confidence intervals for the threshold can be obtained by bootstrapping. The model also permits assessment of relative risk of infection in patients achieving the threshold or not. Goodness-of-fit of the a:b model may be assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow approach. The model is applied to 15 datasets from published clinical trials on pertussis, respiratory syncytial virus and varicella. Results Highly significant thresholds with p-values less than 0.01 were found for 13 of the 15 datasets. Considerable variability was seen in the widths of confidence intervals. Relative risks indicated around 70% or better protection in 11 datasets and relevance of the estimated threshold to imply strong protection. Goodness-of-fit was generally acceptable. Conclusions The a:b model offers a formal statistical method of estimation of thresholds differentiating susceptible from protected individuals which has previously depended on putative statements based on visual inspection of data. PMID:23448322

Inferring parturition and neonate survival from movement patterns of female ungulates: a case study using woodland caribou

PubMed Central

DeMars, Craig A; Auger-Méthé, Marie; Schlägel, Ulrike E; Boutin, Stan

2013-01-01

Analyses of animal movement data have primarily focused on understanding patterns of space use and the behavioural processes driving them. Here, we analyzed animal movement data to infer components of individual fitness, specifically parturition and neonate survival. We predicted that parturition and neonate loss events could be identified by sudden and marked changes in female movement patterns. Using GPS radio-telemetry data from female woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), we developed and tested two novel movement-based methods for inferring parturition and neonate survival. The first method estimated movement thresholds indicative of parturition and neonate loss from population-level data then applied these thresholds in a moving-window analysis on individual time-series data. The second method used an individual-based approach that discriminated among three a priori models representing the movement patterns of non-parturient females, females with surviving offspring, and females losing offspring. The models assumed that step lengths (the distance between successive GPS locations) were exponentially distributed and that abrupt changes in the scale parameter of the exponential distribution were indicative of parturition and offspring loss. Both methods predicted parturition with near certainty (>97% accuracy) and produced appropriate predictions of parturition dates. Prediction of neonate survival was affected by data quality for both methods; however, when using high quality data (i.e., with few missing GPS locations), the individual-based method performed better, predicting neonate survival status with an accuracy rate of 87%. Understanding ungulate population dynamics often requires estimates of parturition and neonate survival rates. With GPS radio-collars increasingly being used in research and management of ungulates, our movement-based methods represent a viable approach for estimating rates of both parameters. PMID:24324866

Inferring parturition and neonate survival from movement patterns of female ungulates: a case study using woodland caribou.

PubMed

Demars, Craig A; Auger-Méthé, Marie; Schlägel, Ulrike E; Boutin, Stan

2013-10-01

Analyses of animal movement data have primarily focused on understanding patterns of space use and the behavioural processes driving them. Here, we analyzed animal movement data to infer components of individual fitness, specifically parturition and neonate survival. We predicted that parturition and neonate loss events could be identified by sudden and marked changes in female movement patterns. Using GPS radio-telemetry data from female woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou), we developed and tested two novel movement-based methods for inferring parturition and neonate survival. The first method estimated movement thresholds indicative of parturition and neonate loss from population-level data then applied these thresholds in a moving-window analysis on individual time-series data. The second method used an individual-based approach that discriminated among three a priori models representing the movement patterns of non-parturient females, females with surviving offspring, and females losing offspring. The models assumed that step lengths (the distance between successive GPS locations) were exponentially distributed and that abrupt changes in the scale parameter of the exponential distribution were indicative of parturition and offspring loss. Both methods predicted parturition with near certainty (>97% accuracy) and produced appropriate predictions of parturition dates. Prediction of neonate survival was affected by data quality for both methods; however, when using high quality data (i.e., with few missing GPS locations), the individual-based method performed better, predicting neonate survival status with an accuracy rate of 87%. Understanding ungulate population dynamics often requires estimates of parturition and neonate survival rates. With GPS radio-collars increasingly being used in research and management of ungulates, our movement-based methods represent a viable approach for estimating rates of both parameters.

Simulation of MAD Cow Disease Propagation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magdoń-Maksymowicz, M. S.; Maksymowicz, A. Z.; Gołdasz, J.

Computer simulation of dynamic of BSE disease is presented. Both vertical (to baby) and horizontal (to neighbor) mechanisms of the disease spread are considered. The game takes place on a two-dimensional square lattice Nx×Ny = 1000×1000 with initial population randomly distributed on the net. The disease may be introduced either with the initial population or by a spontaneous development of BSE in an item, at a small frequency. Main results show a critical probability of the BSE transmission above which the disease is present in the population. This value is vulnerable to possible spatial clustering of the population and it also depends on the mechanism responsible for the disease onset, evolution and propagation. A threshold birth rate below which the population is extinct is seen. Above this threshold the population is disease free at equilibrium until another birth rate value is reached when the disease is present in population. For typical model parameters used for the simulation, which may correspond to the mad cow disease, we are close to the BSE-free case.

Health Monitoring Survey of Bell 412EP Transmissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tucker, Brian E.; Dempsey, Paula J.

2016-01-01

Health and usage monitoring systems (HUMS) use vibration-based Condition Indicators (CI) to assess the health of helicopter powertrain components. A fault is detected when a CI exceeds its threshold value. The effectiveness of fault detection can be judged on the basis of assessing the condition of actual components from fleet aircraft. The Bell 412 HUMS-equipped helicopter is chosen for such an evaluation. A sample of 20 aircraft included 12 aircraft with confirmed transmission and gearbox faults (detected by CIs) and eight aircraft with no known faults. The associated CI data is classified into "healthy" and "faulted" populations based on actual condition and these populations are compared against their CI thresholds to quantify the probability of false alarm and the probability of missed detection. Receiver Operator Characteristic analysis is used to optimize thresholds. Based on the results of the analysis, shortcomings in the classification method are identified for slow-moving CI trends. Recommendations for improving classification using time-dependent receiver-operator characteristic methods are put forth. Finally, lessons learned regarding OEM-operator communication are presented.

Discontinuous non-equilibrium phase transition in a threshold Schloegl model for autocatalysis: Generic two-phase coexistence and metastability

DOE PAGES

Wang, Chi -Jen; Liu, Da -Jiang; Evans, James W.

2015-04-28

Threshold versions of Schloegl’s model on a lattice, which involve autocatalytic creation and spontaneous annihilation of particles, can provide a simple prototype for discontinuous non-equilibrium phase transitions. These models are equivalent to so-called threshold contact processes. A discontinuous transition between populated and vacuum states can occur selecting a threshold of N ≥ 2 for the minimum number, N, of neighboring particles enabling autocatalytic creation at an empty site. Fundamental open questions remain given the lack of a thermodynamic framework for analysis. For a square lattice with N = 2, we show that phase coexistence occurs not at a unique valuemore » but for a finite range of particle annihilation rate (the natural control parameter). This generic two-phase coexistence also persists when perturbing the model to allow spontaneous particle creation. Such behavior contrasts both the Gibbs phase rule for thermodynamic systems and also previous analysis for this model. We find metastability near the transition corresponding to a non-zero effective line tension, also contrasting previously suggested critical behavior. As a result, mean-field type analysis, extended to treat spatially heterogeneous states, further elucidates model behavior.« less

Discontinuous non-equilibrium phase transition in a threshold Schloegl model for autocatalysis: Generic two-phase coexistence and metastability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chi-Jen; Liu, Da-Jiang; Evans, James W.

2015-04-01

Threshold versions of Schloegl's model on a lattice, which involve autocatalytic creation and spontaneous annihilation of particles, can provide a simple prototype for discontinuous non-equilibrium phase transitions. These models are equivalent to so-called threshold contact processes. A discontinuous transition between populated and vacuum states can occur selecting a threshold of N ≥ 2 for the minimum number, N, of neighboring particles enabling autocatalytic creation at an empty site. Fundamental open questions remain given the lack of a thermodynamic framework for analysis. For a square lattice with N = 2, we show that phase coexistence occurs not at a unique value but for a finite range of particle annihilation rate (the natural control parameter). This generic two-phase coexistence also persists when perturbing the model to allow spontaneous particle creation. Such behavior contrasts both the Gibbs phase rule for thermodynamic systems and also previous analysis for this model. We find metastability near the transition corresponding to a non-zero effective line tension, also contrasting previously suggested critical behavior. Mean-field type analysis, extended to treat spatially heterogeneous states, further elucidates model behavior.

Impacts of Larval Connectivity on Coral Heat Tolerance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinsky, M. L.; Kleypas, J. A.; Thompson, D. M.; Castruccio, F. S.; Curchitser, E. N.; Watson, J. R.

2016-02-01

The sensitivity of corals to elevated temperature depends on their acclimation and adaptation to the local maximum temperature regime. Through larval dispersal, however, coral populations can receive larvae from regions that are significantly warmer or colder. If these exogenous larvae carry genetic-based tolerances to colder or warmer temperatures, then the thermal sensitivity of the receiving population may be lower or higher, respectively. Using a high-resolution Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) configuration for the Coral Triangle region, we quantify the potential role of connectivity in determining the thermal stress threshold (TST) of a typical broadcast spawner. The model results suggest that even with a pelagic larval dispersal period of only 10 days, many reefs receive larvae from reefs that are warmer or cooler than the local temperature, and that accounting for this connectivity improves bleaching predictions. This has important implications for conservation planning, because connectivity may allow some reefs to have an inherited heat tolerance that is higher or lower than would be predicted based on local conditions alone.

An Improved Compressive Sensing and Received Signal Strength-Based Target Localization Algorithm with Unknown Target Population for Wireless Local Area Networks.

PubMed

Yan, Jun; Yu, Kegen; Chen, Ruizhi; Chen, Liang

2017-05-30

In this paper a two-phase compressive sensing (CS) and received signal strength (RSS)-based target localization approach is proposed to improve position accuracy by dealing with the unknown target population and the effect of grid dimensions on position error. In the coarse localization phase, by formulating target localization as a sparse signal recovery problem, grids with recovery vector components greater than a threshold are chosen as the candidate target grids. In the fine localization phase, by partitioning each candidate grid, the target position in a grid is iteratively refined by using the minimum residual error rule and the least-squares technique. When all the candidate target grids are iteratively partitioned and the measurement matrix is updated, the recovery vector is re-estimated. Threshold-based detection is employed again to determine the target grids and hence the target population. As a consequence, both the target population and the position estimation accuracy can be significantly improved. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed approach achieves the best accuracy among all the algorithms compared.

Manipulating Traveling Brain Waves with Electric Fields: From Theory to Experiment.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gluckman, Bruce J.

2004-03-01

Activity waves in disinhibited neocortical slices have been used as a biological model for epileptic seizure propagation [1]. Such waves have been mathematically modeled with integro-differential equations [2] representing non-local reaction diffusion dynamics of an excitable medium with an excitability threshold. Stability and propagation speed of traveling pulse solutions depend strongly on the threshold in the following manner: propagation speed should decrease with increased threshold over a finite range, beyond which the waves become unstable. Because populations of neurons can be polarized with an applied electric field that effectively shifts their threshold for action potential initiation [3], we predicted, and have experimentally verified, that electric fields could be used globally or locally to speed up, slow down and even block wave propagation. [1] Telfeian and Conners, Epilepsia, 40, 1499-1506, 1999. [2] Pinto and Ermentrout, SIAM J. App. Math, 62, 206-225, 2001. [3] Gluckman, et. al. J Neurophysiol. 76, 4202-5, 1996.

Cost-effectiveness of oral agents in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis compared to interferon-based therapy in Saudi Arabia.

PubMed

Alsaqa'aby, Mai F; Vaidya, Varun; Khreis, Noura; Khairallah, Thamer Al; Al-Jedai, Ahmed H

2017-01-01

Promising clinical and humanistic outcomes are associated with the use of new oral agents in the treatment of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS). This is the first cost-effectiveness study comparing these medications in Saudi Arabia. We aimed to compare the cost-effectiveness of fingolimod, teriflunomide, dimethyl fumarate, and interferon (IFN)-b1a products (Avonex and Rebif) as first-line therapies in the treatment of patients with RRMS from a Saudi payer perspective. Cohort Simulation Model (Markov Model). Tertiary care hospital. A hypothetical cohort of 1000 RRMS Saudi patients was assumed to enter a Markov model model with a time horizon of 20 years and an annual cycle length. The model was developed based on an expanded disability status scale (EDSS) to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the five disease-modifying drugs (DMDs) from a healthcare system perspective. Data on EDSS progression and relapse rates were obtained from the literature; cost data were obtained from King Faisal Specialist Hospital and Research Centre, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Results were expressed as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) and net monetary benefits (NMB) in Saudi Riyals and converted to equivalent $US. The base-case willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold was assumed to be $100000 (SAR375000). One-way sensitivity analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were conducted to test the robustness of the model. ICERs and NMB. The base-case analysis results showed Rebif as the optimal therapy at a WTP threshold of $100000. Avonex had the lowest ICER value of $337282/QALY when compared to Rebif. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the results were sensitive to utility weights of health state three and four and the cost of Rebif. None of the DMDs were found to be cost-effective in the treatment of RRMS at a WTP threshold of $100000 in this analysis. The DMDs would only be cost-effective at a WTP above $300000. The current analysis did not reflect the Saudi population preference in valuation of health states and did not consider the societal perspective in terms of cost.

Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

Laufenberg, Jared S.; Clark, Joseph D.; Chandler, Richard B.

2018-01-01

Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR) data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years () was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when , suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

Estimating population extinction thresholds with categorical classification trees for Louisiana black bears.

PubMed

Laufenberg, Jared S; Clark, Joseph D; Chandler, Richard B

2018-01-01

Monitoring vulnerable species is critical for their conservation. Thresholds or tipping points are commonly used to indicate when populations become vulnerable to extinction and to trigger changes in conservation actions. However, quantitative methods to determine such thresholds have not been well explored. The Louisiana black bear (Ursus americanus luteolus) was removed from the list of threatened and endangered species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 2016 and our objectives were to determine the most appropriate parameters and thresholds for monitoring and management action. Capture mark recapture (CMR) data from 2006 to 2012 were used to estimate population parameters and variances. We used stochastic population simulations and conditional classification trees to identify demographic rates for monitoring that would be most indicative of heighted extinction risk. We then identified thresholds that would be reliable predictors of population viability. Conditional classification trees indicated that annual apparent survival rates for adult females averaged over 5 years ([Formula: see text]) was the best predictor of population persistence. Specifically, population persistence was estimated to be ≥95% over 100 years when [Formula: see text], suggesting that this statistic can be used as threshold to trigger management intervention. Our evaluation produced monitoring protocols that reliably predicted population persistence and was cost-effective. We conclude that population projections and conditional classification trees can be valuable tools for identifying extinction thresholds used in monitoring programs.

Continuous-wave infrared optical gain and amplified spontaneous emission at ultralow threshold by colloidal HgTe quantum dots.

PubMed

Geiregat, Pieter; Houtepen, Arjan J; Sagar, Laxmi Kishore; Infante, Ivan; Zapata, Felipe; Grigel, Valeriia; Allan, Guy; Delerue, Christophe; Van Thourhout, Dries; Hens, Zeger

2018-01-01

Colloidal quantum dots (QDs) raise more and more interest as solution-processable and tunable optical gain materials. However, especially for infrared active QDs, optical gain remains inefficient. Since stimulated emission involves multifold degenerate band-edge states, population inversion can be attained only at high pump power and must compete with efficient multi-exciton recombination. Here, we show that mercury telluride (HgTe) QDs exhibit size-tunable stimulated emission throughout the near-infrared telecom window at thresholds unmatched by any QD studied before. We attribute this unique behaviour to surface-localized states in the bandgap that turn HgTe QDs into 4-level systems. The resulting long-lived population inversion induces amplified spontaneous emission under continuous-wave optical pumping at power levels compatible with solar irradiation and direct current electrical pumping. These results introduce an alternative approach for low-threshold QD-based gain media based on intentional trap states that paves the way for solution-processed infrared QD lasers and amplifiers.

Continuous-wave infrared optical gain and amplified spontaneous emission at ultralow threshold by colloidal HgTe quantum dots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geiregat, Pieter; Houtepen, Arjan J.; Sagar, Laxmi Kishore; Infante, Ivan; Zapata, Felipe; Grigel, Valeriia; Allan, Guy; Delerue, Christophe; van Thourhout, Dries; Hens, Zeger

2018-01-01

Colloidal quantum dots (QDs) raise more and more interest as solution-processable and tunable optical gain materials. However, especially for infrared active QDs, optical gain remains inefficient. Since stimulated emission involves multifold degenerate band-edge states, population inversion can be attained only at high pump power and must compete with efficient multi-exciton recombination. Here, we show that mercury telluride (HgTe) QDs exhibit size-tunable stimulated emission throughout the near-infrared telecom window at thresholds unmatched by any QD studied before. We attribute this unique behaviour to surface-localized states in the bandgap that turn HgTe QDs into 4-level systems. The resulting long-lived population inversion induces amplified spontaneous emission under continuous-wave optical pumping at power levels compatible with solar irradiation and direct current electrical pumping. These results introduce an alternative approach for low-threshold QD-based gain media based on intentional trap states that paves the way for solution-processed infrared QD lasers and amplifiers.

Critical thresholds in sea lice epidemics: evidence, sensitivity and subcritical estimation

PubMed Central

Frazer, L. Neil; Morton, Alexandra; Krkošek, Martin

2012-01-01

Host density thresholds are a fundamental component of the population dynamics of pathogens, but empirical evidence and estimates are lacking. We studied host density thresholds in the dynamics of ectoparasitic sea lice (Lepeophtheirus salmonis) on salmon farms. Empirical examples include a 1994 epidemic in Atlantic Canada and a 2001 epidemic in Pacific Canada. A mathematical model suggests dynamics of lice are governed by a stable endemic equilibrium until the critical host density threshold drops owing to environmental change, or is exceeded by stocking, causing epidemics that require rapid harvest or treatment. Sensitivity analysis of the critical threshold suggests variation in dependence on biotic parameters and high sensitivity to temperature and salinity. We provide a method for estimating the critical threshold from parasite abundances at subcritical host densities and estimate the critical threshold and transmission coefficient for the two epidemics. Host density thresholds may be a fundamental component of disease dynamics in coastal seas where salmon farming occurs. PMID:22217721

Estimating daily climatologies for climate indices derived from climate model data and observations

PubMed Central

Mahlstein, Irina; Spirig, Christoph; Liniger, Mark A; Appenzeller, Christof

2015-01-01

Climate indices help to describe the past, present, and the future climate. They are usually closer related to possible impacts and are therefore more illustrative to users than simple climate means. Indices are often based on daily data series and thresholds. It is shown that the percentile-based thresholds are sensitive to the method of computation, and so are the climatological daily mean and the daily standard deviation, which are used for bias corrections of daily climate model data. Sample size issues of either the observed reference period or the model data lead to uncertainties in these estimations. A large number of past ensemble seasonal forecasts, called hindcasts, is used to explore these sampling uncertainties and to compare two different approaches. Based on a perfect model approach it is shown that a fitting approach can improve substantially the estimates of daily climatologies of percentile-based thresholds over land areas, as well as the mean and the variability. These improvements are relevant for bias removal in long-range forecasts or predictions of climate indices based on percentile thresholds. But also for climate change studies, the method shows potential for use. Key Points More robust estimates of daily climate characteristics Statistical fitting approach Based on a perfect model approach PMID:26042192

Population dynamics of obligate cooperators

PubMed Central

Courchamp, F.; Grenfell, B.; Clutton-Brock, T.

1999-01-01

Obligate cooperative breeding species demonstrate a high rate of group extinction, which may be due to the existence of a critical number of helpers below which the group cannot subsist. Through a simple model, we study the population dynamics of obligate cooperative breeding species, taking into account the existence of a lower threshold below which the instantaneous growth rate becomes negative. The model successively incorporates (i) a distinction between species that need helpers for reproduction, survival or both, (ii) the existence of a migration rate accounting for dispersal, and (iii) stochastic mortality to simulate the effects of random catastrophic events. Our results suggest that the need for a minimum number of helpers increases the risk of extinction for obligate cooperative breeding species. The constraint imposed by this threshold is higher when helpers are needed for reproduction only or for both reproduction and survival. By driving them below this lower threshold, stochastic mortality of lower amplitude and/or lower frequency than for non-cooperative breeders may be sufficient to cause the extinction of obligate cooperative breeding groups. Migration may have a buffering effect only for groups where immigration is higher than emigration; otherwise (when immigrants from nearby groups are not available) it lowers the difference between actual group size and critical threshold, thereby constituting a higher constraint.

Modeling deep brain stimulation: point source approximation versus realistic representation of the electrode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tianhe C.; Grill, Warren M.

2010-12-01

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) has emerged as an effective treatment for movement disorders; however, the fundamental mechanisms by which DBS works are not well understood. Computational models of DBS can provide insights into these fundamental mechanisms and typically require two steps: calculation of the electrical potentials generated by DBS and, subsequently, determination of the effects of the extracellular potentials on neurons. The objective of this study was to assess the validity of using a point source electrode to approximate the DBS electrode when calculating the thresholds and spatial distribution of activation of a surrounding population of model neurons in response to monopolar DBS. Extracellular potentials in a homogenous isotropic volume conductor were calculated using either a point current source or a geometrically accurate finite element model of the Medtronic DBS 3389 lead. These extracellular potentials were coupled to populations of model axons, and thresholds and spatial distributions were determined for different electrode geometries and axon orientations. Median threshold differences between DBS and point source electrodes for individual axons varied between -20.5% and 9.5% across all orientations, monopolar polarities and electrode geometries utilizing the DBS 3389 electrode. Differences in the percentage of axons activated at a given amplitude by the point source electrode and the DBS electrode were between -9.0% and 12.6% across all monopolar configurations tested. The differences in activation between the DBS and point source electrodes occurred primarily in regions close to conductor-insulator interfaces and around the insulating tip of the DBS electrode. The robustness of the point source approximation in modeling several special cases—tissue anisotropy, a long active electrode and bipolar stimulation—was also examined. Under the conditions considered, the point source was shown to be a valid approximation for predicting excitation of populations of neurons in response to DBS.

Gauging the likelihood of stable cavitation from ultrasound contrast agents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bader, Kenneth B.; Holland, Christy K.

2013-01-01

The mechanical index (MI) was formulated to gauge the likelihood of adverse bioeffects from inertial cavitation. However, the MI formulation did not consider bubble activity from stable cavitation. This type of bubble activity can be readily nucleated from ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs) and has the potential to promote beneficial bioeffects. Here, the presence of stable cavitation is determined numerically by tracking the onset of subharmonic oscillations within a population of bubbles for frequencies up to 7 MHz and peak rarefactional pressures up to 3 MPa. In addition, the acoustic pressure rupture threshold of an UCA population was determined using the Marmottant model. The threshold for subharmonic emissions of optimally sized bubbles was found to be lower than the inertial cavitation threshold for all frequencies studied. The rupture thresholds of optimally sized UCAs were found to be lower than the threshold for subharmonic emissions for either single cycle or steady state acoustic excitations. Because the thresholds of both subharmonic emissions and UCA rupture are linearly dependent on frequency, an index of the form ICAV = Pr/f (where Pr is the peak rarefactional pressure in MPa and f is the frequency in MHz) was derived to gauge the likelihood of subharmonic emissions due to stable cavitation activity nucleated from UCAs.

Gauging the likelihood of stable cavitation from ultrasound contrast agents.

PubMed

Bader, Kenneth B; Holland, Christy K

2013-01-07

The mechanical index (MI) was formulated to gauge the likelihood of adverse bioeffects from inertial cavitation. However, the MI formulation did not consider bubble activity from stable cavitation. This type of bubble activity can be readily nucleated from ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs) and has the potential to promote beneficial bioeffects. Here, the presence of stable cavitation is determined numerically by tracking the onset of subharmonic oscillations within a population of bubbles for frequencies up to 7 MHz and peak rarefactional pressures up to 3 MPa. In addition, the acoustic pressure rupture threshold of an UCA population was determined using the Marmottant model. The threshold for subharmonic emissions of optimally sized bubbles was found to be lower than the inertial cavitation threshold for all frequencies studied. The rupture thresholds of optimally sized UCAs were found to be lower than the threshold for subharmonic emissions for either single cycle or steady state acoustic excitations. Because the thresholds of both subharmonic emissions and UCA rupture are linearly dependent on frequency, an index of the form I(CAV) = P(r)/f (where P(r) is the peak rarefactional pressure in MPa and f is the frequency in MHz) was derived to gauge the likelihood of subharmonic emissions due to stable cavitation activity nucleated from UCAs.

Gauging the likelihood of stable cavitation from ultrasound contrast agents

PubMed Central

Bader, Kenneth B; Holland, Christy K

2015-01-01

The mechanical index (MI) was formulated to gauge the likelihood of adverse bioeffects from inertial cavitation. However, the MI formulation did not consider bubble activity from stable cavitation. This type of bubble activity can be readily nucleated from ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs) and has the potential to promote beneficial bioeffects. Here, the presence of stable cavitation is determined numerically by tracking the onset of subharmonic oscillations within a population of bubbles for frequencies up to 7 MHz and peak rarefactional pressures up to 3 MPa. In addition, the acoustic pressure rupture threshold of an UCA population was determined using the Marmottant model. The threshold for subharmonic emissions of optimally sized bubbles was found to be lower than the inertial cavitation threshold for all frequencies studied. The rupture thresholds of optimally sized UCAs were found to be lower than the threshold for subharmonic emissions for either single cycle or steady state acoustic excitations. Because the thresholds of both subharmonic emissions and UCA rupture are linearly dependent on frequency, an index of the form ICAV = Pr/f (where Pr is the peak rarefactional pressure in MPa and f is the frequency in MHz) was derived to gauge the likelihood of subharmonic emissions due to stable cavitation activity nucleated from UCAs. PMID:23221109

Comparison of Intrinsic Rate of Different House Fly Densities in a Simulated Condition: A Prediction for House Fly Population and Control Threshold.

PubMed

Ong, Song-Quan; Ahmad, Hamdan; Jaal, Zairi; Rus, Adanan; Fadzlah, Fadhlina Hazwani Mohd

2017-01-01

Determining the control threshold for a pest is common prior to initiating a pest control program; however, previous studies related to the house fly control threshold for a poultry farm are insufficient for determining such a threshold. This study aimed to predict the population changes of house fly population by comparing the intrinsic rate of increase (r m ) for different house fly densities in a simulated system. This study first defined the knee points of a known population growth curve as a control threshold by comparing the r m of five densities of house flies in a simulated condition. Later, to understand the interactions between the larval and adult populations, the correlation between larval and adult capacity rate (r c ) was studied. The r m values of 300- and 500-fly densities were significantly higher compared with the r m values at densities of 50 and 100 flies. This result indicated their representative indices as candidates for a control threshold. The r c of larval and adult populations were negatively correlated with densities of fewer than 300 flies; this implicated adult populations with fewer than 300 flies as declining while the larval population was growing; therefore, control approaches should focus on the immature stages. The results in the present study suggest a control threshold for house fly populations. Future works should focus on calibrating the threshold indices in field conditions. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Divergence and evolution of assortative mating in a polygenic trait model of speciation with gene flow.

PubMed

Sachdeva, Himani; Barton, Nicholas H

2017-06-01

Assortative mating is an important driver of speciation in populations with gene flow and is predicted to evolve under certain conditions in few-locus models. However, the evolution of assortment is less understood for mating based on quantitative traits, which are often characterized by high genetic variability and extensive linkage disequilibrium between trait loci. We explore this scenario for a two-deme model with migration, by considering a single polygenic trait subject to divergent viability selection across demes, as well as assortative mating and sexual selection within demes, and investigate how trait divergence is shaped by various evolutionary forces. Our analysis reveals the existence of sharp thresholds of assortment strength, at which divergence increases dramatically. We also study the evolution of assortment via invasion of modifiers of mate discrimination and show that the ES assortment strength has an intermediate value under a range of migration-selection parameters, even in diverged populations, due to subtle effects which depend sensitively on the extent of phenotypic variation within these populations. The evolutionary dynamics of the polygenic trait is studied using the hypergeometric and infinitesimal models. We further investigate the sensitivity of our results to the assumptions of the hypergeometric model, using individual-based simulations. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

40 CFR Table Jj-1 to Subpart Jj of... - Animal Population Threshold Level Below Which Facilities Are Not Required To Report Emissions...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... 40 Protection of Environment 22 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Animal Population Threshold Level... Subpart JJ of Part 98—Animal Population Threshold Level Below Which Facilities Are Not Required To Report...,200 Swine 34,100 Poultry: Layers 723,600 Broilers 38,160,000 Turkeys 7,710,000 1 The threshold head...

Structural habitat predicts functional dispersal habitat of a large carnivore: how leopards change spots.

PubMed

Fattebert, Julien; Robinson, Hugh S; Balme, Guy; Slotow, Rob; Hunter, Luke

2015-10-01

Natal dispersal promotes inter-population linkage, and is key to spatial distribution of populations. Degradation of suitable landscape structures beyond the specific threshold of an individual's ability to disperse can therefore lead to disruption of functional landscape connectivity and impact metapopulation function. Because it ignores behavioral responses of individuals, structural connectivity is easier to assess than functional connectivity and is often used as a surrogate for landscape connectivity modeling. However using structural resource selection models as surrogate for modeling functional connectivity through dispersal could be erroneous. We tested how well a second-order resource selection function (RSF) models (structural connectivity), based on GPS telemetry data from resident adult leopard (Panthera pardus L.), could predict subadult habitat use during dispersal (functional connectivity). We created eight non-exclusive subsets of the subadult data based on differing definitions of dispersal to assess the predictive ability of our adult-based RSF model extrapolated over a broader landscape. Dispersing leopards used habitats in accordance with adult selection patterns, regardless of the definition of dispersal considered. We demonstrate that, for a wide-ranging apex carnivore, functional connectivity through natal dispersal corresponds to structural connectivity as modeled by a second-order RSF. Mapping of the adult-based habitat classes provides direct visualization of the potential linkages between populations, without the need to model paths between a priori starting and destination points. The use of such landscape scale RSFs may provide insight into predicting suitable dispersal habitat peninsulas in human-dominated landscapes where mitigation of human-wildlife conflict should be focused. We recommend the use of second-order RSFs for landscape conservation planning and propose a similar approach to the conservation of other wide-ranging large carnivore species where landscape-scale resource selection data already exist.

Use of the FDA nozzle model to illustrate validation techniques in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations.

PubMed

Hariharan, Prasanna; D'Souza, Gavin A; Horner, Marc; Morrison, Tina M; Malinauskas, Richard A; Myers, Matthew R

2017-01-01

A "credible" computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model has the potential to provide a meaningful evaluation of safety in medical devices. One major challenge in establishing "model credibility" is to determine the required degree of similarity between the model and experimental results for the model to be considered sufficiently validated. This study proposes a "threshold-based" validation approach that provides a well-defined acceptance criteria, which is a function of how close the simulation and experimental results are to the safety threshold, for establishing the model validity. The validation criteria developed following the threshold approach is not only a function of Comparison Error, E (which is the difference between experiments and simulations) but also takes in to account the risk to patient safety because of E. The method is applicable for scenarios in which a safety threshold can be clearly defined (e.g., the viscous shear-stress threshold for hemolysis in blood contacting devices). The applicability of the new validation approach was tested on the FDA nozzle geometry. The context of use (COU) was to evaluate if the instantaneous viscous shear stress in the nozzle geometry at Reynolds numbers (Re) of 3500 and 6500 was below the commonly accepted threshold for hemolysis. The CFD results ("S") of velocity and viscous shear stress were compared with inter-laboratory experimental measurements ("D"). The uncertainties in the CFD and experimental results due to input parameter uncertainties were quantified following the ASME V&V 20 standard. The CFD models for both Re = 3500 and 6500 could not be sufficiently validated by performing a direct comparison between CFD and experimental results using the Student's t-test. However, following the threshold-based approach, a Student's t-test comparing |S-D| and |Threshold-S| showed that relative to the threshold, the CFD and experimental datasets for Re = 3500 were statistically similar and the model could be considered sufficiently validated for the COU. However, for Re = 6500, at certain locations where the shear stress is close the hemolysis threshold, the CFD model could not be considered sufficiently validated for the COU. Our analysis showed that the model could be sufficiently validated either by reducing the uncertainties in experiments, simulations, and the threshold or by increasing the sample size for the experiments and simulations. The threshold approach can be applied to all types of computational models and provides an objective way of determining model credibility and for evaluating medical devices.

Threshold and Beyond: Modeling The Intensity Dependence of Auditory Responses

PubMed Central

2007-01-01

In many studies of auditory-evoked responses to low-intensity sounds, the response amplitude appears to increase roughly linearly with the sound level in decibels (dB), corresponding to a logarithmic intensity dependence. But the auditory system is assumed to be linear in the low-intensity limit. The goal of this study was to resolve the seeming contradiction. Based on assumptions about the rate-intensity functions of single auditory-nerve fibers and the pattern of cochlear excitation caused by a tone, a model for the gross response of the population of auditory nerve fibers was developed. In accordance with signal detection theory, the model denies the existence of a threshold. This implies that regarding the detection of a significant stimulus-related effect, a reduction in sound intensity can always be compensated for by increasing the measurement time, at least in theory. The model suggests that the gross response is proportional to intensity when the latter is low (range I), and a linear function of sound level at higher intensities (range III). For intensities in between, it is concluded that noisy experimental data may provide seemingly irrefutable evidence of a linear dependence on sound pressure (range II). In view of the small response amplitudes that are to be expected for intensity range I, direct observation of the predicted proportionality with intensity will generally be a challenging task for an experimenter. Although the model was developed for the auditory nerve, the basic conclusions are probably valid for higher levels of the auditory system, too, and might help to improve models for loudness at threshold. PMID:18008105

Modeling the Dynamics of High-Grade Serous Ovarian Cancer Progression for Transvaginal Ultrasound-Based Screening and Early Detection

PubMed Central

Lee, Jung-Min; Levy, Doron

2016-01-01

High-grade serous ovarian cancer (HGSOC) represents the majority of ovarian cancers and accounts for the largest proportion of deaths from the disease. A timely detection of low volume HGSOC should be the goal of any screening studies. However, numerous transvaginal ultrasound (TVU) detection-based population studies aimed at detecting low-volume disease have not yielded reduced mortality rates. A quantitative invalidation of TVU as an effective HGSOC screening strategy is a necessary next step. Herein, we propose a mathematical model for a quantitative explanation on the reported failure of TVU-based screening to improve HGSOC low-volume detectability and overall survival.We develop a novel in silico mathematical assessment of the efficacy of a unimodal TVU monitoring regimen as a strategy aimed at detecting low-volume HGSOC in cancer-positive cases, defined as cases for which the inception of the first malignant cell has already occurred. Our findings show that the median window of opportunity interval length for TVU monitoring and HGSOC detection is approximately 1.76 years. This does not translate into reduced mortality levels or improved detection accuracy in an in silico cohort across multiple TVU monitoring frequencies or detection sensitivities. We demonstrate that even a semiannual, unimodal TVU monitoring protocol is expected to miss detectable HGSOC. Lastly, we find that circa 50% of the simulated HGSOC growth curves never reach the baseline detectability threshold, and that on average, 5–7 infrequent, rate-limiting stochastic changes in the growth parameters are associated with reaching HGSOC detectability and mortality thresholds respectively. Focusing on a malignancy poorly studied in the mathematical oncology community, our model captures the dynamic, temporal evolution of HGSOC progression. Our mathematical model is consistent with recent case reports and prospective TVU screening population studies, and provides support to the empirical recommendation against frequent HGSOC screening. PMID:27257824

Pool desiccation and developmental thresholds in the common frog, Rana temporaria.

PubMed

Lind, Martin I; Persbo, Frida; Johansson, Frank

2008-05-07

The developmental threshold is the minimum size or condition that a developing organism must have reached in order for a life-history transition to occur. Although developmental thresholds have been observed for many organisms, inter-population variation among natural populations has not been examined. Since isolated populations can be subjected to strong divergent selection, population divergence in developmental thresholds can be predicted if environmental conditions favour fast or slow developmental time in different populations. Amphibian metamorphosis is a well-studied life-history transition, and using a common garden approach we compared the development time and the developmental threshold of metamorphosis in four island populations of the common frog Rana temporaria: two populations originating from islands with only temporary breeding pools and two from islands with permanent pools. As predicted, tadpoles from time-constrained temporary pools had a genetically shorter development time than those from permanent pools. Furthermore, the variation in development time among females from temporary pools was low, consistent with the action of selection on rapid development in this environment. However, there were no clear differences in the developmental thresholds between the populations, indicating that the main response to life in a temporary pool is to shorten the development time.

Predictive thresholds for plague in Kazakhstan.

PubMed

Davis, Stephen; Begon, Mike; De Bruyn, Luc; Ageyev, Vladimir S; Klassovskiy, Nikolay L; Pole, Sergey B; Viljugrein, Hildegunn; Stenseth, Nils Chr; Leirs, Herwig

2004-04-30

In Kazakhstan and elsewhere in central Asia, the bacterium Yersinia pestis circulates in natural populations of gerbils, which are the source of human cases of bubonic plague. Our analysis of field data collected between 1955 and 1996 shows that plague invades, fades out, and reinvades in response to fluctuations in the abundance of its main reservoir host, the great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus). This is a rare empirical example of the two types of abundance thresholds for infectious disease-invasion and persistence- operating in a single wildlife population. We parameterized predictive models that should reduce the costs of plague surveillance in central Asia and thereby encourage its continuance.

3.5 GHz Environmental Sensing Capability Detection Thresholds and Deployment

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Thao T.; Souryal, Michael R.; Sahoo, Anirudha; Hall, Timothy A.

2017-01-01

Spectrum sharing in the 3.5 GHz band between commercial and government users along U.S. coastal areas depends on an environmental sensing capability (ESC)—that is, a network of radio frequency sensors and a decision system—to detect the presence of incumbent shipborne radar systems and trigger protective measures, as needed. It is well known that the sensitivity of these sensors depends on the aggregate interference generated by commercial systems to the incumbent radar receivers, but to date no comprehensive study has been made of the aggregate interference in realistic scenarios and its impact on the requirement for detection of the radar signal. This paper presents systematic methods for determining the placement of ESC sensors and their detection thresholds to adequately protect incumbent shipborne radar systems from harmful interference. Using terrain-based propagation models and a population-based deployment model, the analysis finds the offshore distances at which protection must be triggered and relates these to the detection levels of coastline sensors. We further show that sensor placement is a form of the well-known set cover problem, which has been shown to be NP-complete, and demonstrate practical solutions achieved with a greedy algorithm. Results show detection thresholds to be as much as 22 dB lower than required by current industry standards. The methodology and results presented in this paper can be used by ESC operators for planning and deployment of sensors and by regulators for testing sensor performance. PMID:29303162

Assessing Regional and Interspecific Variation in Threshold Responses of Forest Breeding Birds through Broad Scale Analyses

PubMed Central

van der Hoek, Yntze; Renfrew, Rosalind; Manne, Lisa L.

2013-01-01

Background Identifying persistence and extinction thresholds in species-habitat relationships is a major focal point of ecological research and conservation. However, one major concern regarding the incorporation of threshold analyses in conservation is the lack of knowledge on the generality and transferability of results across species and regions. We present a multi-region, multi-species approach of modeling threshold responses, which we use to investigate whether threshold effects are similar across species and regions. Methodology/Principal Findings We modeled local persistence and extinction dynamics of 25 forest-associated breeding birds based on detection/non-detection data, which were derived from repeated breeding bird atlases for the state of Vermont. We did not find threshold responses to be particularly well-supported, with 9 species supporting extinction thresholds and 5 supporting persistence thresholds. This contrasts with a previous study based on breeding bird atlas data from adjacent New York State, which showed that most species support persistence and extinction threshold models (15 and 22 of 25 study species respectively). In addition, species that supported a threshold model in both states had associated average threshold estimates of 61.41% (SE = 6.11, persistence) and 66.45% (SE = 9.15, extinction) in New York, compared to 51.08% (SE = 10.60, persistence) and 73.67% (SE = 5.70, extinction) in Vermont. Across species, thresholds were found at 19.45–87.96% forest cover for persistence and 50.82–91.02% for extinction dynamics. Conclusions/Significance Through an approach that allows for broad-scale comparisons of threshold responses, we show that species vary in their threshold responses with regard to habitat amount, and that differences between even nearby regions can be pronounced. We present both ecological and methodological factors that may contribute to the different model results, but propose that regardless of the reasons behind these differences, our results merit a warning that threshold values cannot simply be transferred across regions or interpreted as clear-cut targets for ecosystem management and conservation. PMID:23409106

Overcoming the effects of false positives and threshold bias in graph theoretical analyses of neuroimaging data.

PubMed

Drakesmith, M; Caeyenberghs, K; Dutt, A; Lewis, G; David, A S; Jones, D K

2015-09-01

Graph theory (GT) is a powerful framework for quantifying topological features of neuroimaging-derived functional and structural networks. However, false positive (FP) connections arise frequently and influence the inferred topology of networks. Thresholding is often used to overcome this problem, but an appropriate threshold often relies on a priori assumptions, which will alter inferred network topologies. Four common network metrics (global efficiency, mean clustering coefficient, mean betweenness and smallworldness) were tested using a model tractography dataset. It was found that all four network metrics were significantly affected even by just one FP. Results also show that thresholding effectively dampens the impact of FPs, but at the expense of adding significant bias to network metrics. In a larger number (n=248) of tractography datasets, statistics were computed across random group permutations for a range of thresholds, revealing that statistics for network metrics varied significantly more than for non-network metrics (i.e., number of streamlines and number of edges). Varying degrees of network atrophy were introduced artificially to half the datasets, to test sensitivity to genuine group differences. For some network metrics, this atrophy was detected as significant (p<0.05, determined using permutation testing) only across a limited range of thresholds. We propose a multi-threshold permutation correction (MTPC) method, based on the cluster-enhanced permutation correction approach, to identify sustained significant effects across clusters of thresholds. This approach minimises requirements to determine a single threshold a priori. We demonstrate improved sensitivity of MTPC-corrected metrics to genuine group effects compared to an existing approach and demonstrate the use of MTPC on a previously published network analysis of tractography data derived from a clinical population. In conclusion, we show that there are large biases and instability induced by thresholding, making statistical comparisons of network metrics difficult. However, by testing for effects across multiple thresholds using MTPC, true group differences can be robustly identified. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Inc.

An adaptive design for updating the threshold value of a continuous biomarker.

PubMed

Spencer, Amy V; Harbron, Chris; Mander, Adrian; Wason, James; Peers, Ian

2016-11-30

Potential predictive biomarkers are often measured on a continuous scale, but in practice, a threshold value to divide the patient population into biomarker 'positive' and 'negative' is desirable. Early phase clinical trials are increasingly using biomarkers for patient selection, but at this stage, it is likely that little will be known about the relationship between the biomarker and the treatment outcome. We describe a single-arm trial design with adaptive enrichment, which can increase power to demonstrate efficacy within a patient subpopulation, the parameters of which are also estimated. Our design enables us to learn about the biomarker and optimally adjust the threshold during the study, using a combination of generalised linear modelling and Bayesian prediction. At the final analysis, a binomial exact test is carried out, allowing the hypothesis that 'no population subset exists in which the novel treatment has a desirable response rate' to be tested. Through extensive simulations, we are able to show increased power over fixed threshold methods in many situations without increasing the type-I error rate. We also show that estimates of the threshold, which defines the population subset, are unbiased and often more precise than those from fixed threshold studies. We provide an example of the method applied (retrospectively) to publically available data from a study of the use of tamoxifen after mastectomy by the German Breast Study Group, where progesterone receptor is the biomarker of interest. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Traffic-related particulate air pollution exposure in urban areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borrego, C.; Tchepel, O.; Costa, A. M.; Martins, H.; Ferreira, J.; Miranda, A. I.

In the last years, there has been an increase of scientific studies confirming that long- and short-term exposure to particulate matter (PM) pollution leads to adverse health effects. The development of a methodology for the determination of accumulated human exposure in urban areas is the main objective of the current work, combining information on concentrations at different microenvironments and population time-activity pattern data. A link between a mesoscale meteorological and dispersion model and a local scale air quality model was developed to define the boundary conditions for the local scale application. The time-activity pattern of the population was derived from statistical information for different sub-population groups and linked to digital city maps. Finally, the hourly PM 10 concentrations for indoor and outdoor microenvironments were estimated for the Lisbon city centre, which was chosen as the case-study, based on the local scale air quality model application for a selected period. This methodology is a first approach to estimate population exposure, calculated as the total daily values above the thresholds recommended for long- and short-term health effects. Obtained results reveal that in Lisbon city centre a large number of persons are exposed to PM levels exceeding the legislated limit value.

Feasibility of employing model-based optimization of pulse amplitude and electrode distance for effective tumor electropermeabilization.

PubMed

Sel, Davorka; Lebar, Alenka Macek; Miklavcic, Damijan

2007-05-01

In electrochemotherapy (ECT) electropermeabilization, parameters (pulse amplitude, electrode setup) need to be customized in order to expose the whole tumor to electric field intensities above permeabilizing threshold to achieve effective ECT. In this paper, we present a model-based optimization approach toward determination of optimal electropermeabilization parameters for effective ECT. The optimization is carried out by minimizing the difference between the permeabilization threshold and electric field intensities computed by finite element model in selected points of tumor. We examined the feasibility of model-based optimization of electropermeabilization parameters on a model geometry generated from computer tomography images, representing brain tissue with tumor. Continuous parameter subject to optimization was pulse amplitude. The distance between electrode pairs was optimized as a discrete parameter. Optimization also considered the pulse generator constraints on voltage and current. During optimization the two constraints were reached preventing the exposure of the entire volume of the tumor to electric field intensities above permeabilizing threshold. However, despite the fact that with the particular needle array holder and pulse generator the entire volume of the tumor was not permeabilized, the maximal extent of permeabilization for the particular case (electrodes, tissue) was determined with the proposed approach. Model-based optimization approach could also be used for electro-gene transfer, where electric field intensities should be distributed between permeabilizing threshold and irreversible threshold-the latter causing tissue necrosis. This can be obtained by adding constraints on maximum electric field intensity in optimization procedure.

Threshold and subthreshold Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) and suicide ideation.

PubMed

Gilmour, Heather

2016-11-16

Subthreshold Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD) has been reported to be at least as prevalent as threshold GAD and of comparable clinical significance. It is not clear if GAD is uniquely associated with the risk of suicide, or if psychiatric comorbidity drives the association. Data from the 2012 Canadian Community Health Survey-Mental Health were used to estimate the prevalence of threshold and subthreshold GAD in the household population aged 15 or older. As well, the relationship between GAD and suicide ideation was studied. Multivariate logistic regression was used in a sample of 24,785 people to identify significant associations, while adjusting for the confounding effects of sociodemographic factors and other mental disorders. In 2012, an estimated 722,000 Canadians aged 15 or older (2.6%) met the criteria for threshold GAD; an additional 2.3% (655,000) had subthreshold GAD. For people with threshold GAD, past 12-month suicide ideation was more prevalent among men than women (32.0% versus 21.2% respectively). In multivariate models that controlled sociodemographic factors, the odds of past 12-month suicide ideation among people with either past 12-month threshold or subthreshold GAD were significantly higher than the odds for those without GAD. When psychiatric comorbidity was also controlled, associations between threshold and subthreshold GAD and suicidal ideation were attenuated, but remained significant. Threshold and subthreshold GAD affect similar percentages of the Canadian household population. This study adds to the literature that has identified an independent association between threshold GAD and suicide ideation, and demonstrates that an association is also apparent for subthreshold GAD.

What is the most cost-effective population-based cancer screening program for Chinese women?

PubMed

Woo, Pauline P S; Kim, Jane J; Leung, Gabriel M

2007-02-20

To develop a policy-relevant generalized cost-effectiveness (CE) model of population-based cancer screening for Chinese women. Disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted and associated screening and treatment costs under population-based screening using cervical cytology (cervical cancer), mammography (breast cancer), and fecal occult blood testing (FOBT), sigmoidoscopy, FOBT plus sigmoidoscopy, or colonoscopy (colorectal cancer) were estimated, from which average and incremental CE ratios were generated. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken to assess stochasticity, parameter uncertainty, and model assumptions. Cervical, breast, and colorectal cancers were together responsible for 13,556 DALYs (in a 1:4:3 ratio, respectively) in Hong Kong's 3.4 million female population annually. All status quo strategies were dominated, thus confirming the suboptimal efficiency of opportunistic screening. Current patterns of screening averted 471 DALYs every year, which could potentially be more than doubled to 1,161 DALYs under the same screening and treatment budgetary threshold of US $50 million with 100% Pap coverage every 4 years and 30% coverage of colonoscopy every 10 years. With higher budgetary caps, biennial mammographic screening starting at age 50 years can be introduced. Our findings have informed how best to achieve allocative efficiency in deploying scarce cancer care dollars but must be coupled with better integrated care planning, improved intersectoral coordination, increased resources, and stronger political will to realize the potential health and economic gains as demonstrated.

The impact of manual threshold selection in medical additive manufacturing.

PubMed

van Eijnatten, Maureen; Koivisto, Juha; Karhu, Kalle; Forouzanfar, Tymour; Wolff, Jan

2017-04-01

Medical additive manufacturing requires standard tessellation language (STL) models. Such models are commonly derived from computed tomography (CT) images using thresholding. Threshold selection can be performed manually or automatically. The aim of this study was to assess the impact of manual and default threshold selection on the reliability and accuracy of skull STL models using different CT technologies. One female and one male human cadaver head were imaged using multi-detector row CT, dual-energy CT, and two cone-beam CT scanners. Four medical engineers manually thresholded the bony structures on all CT images. The lowest and highest selected mean threshold values and the default threshold value were used to generate skull STL models. Geometric variations between all manually thresholded STL models were calculated. Furthermore, in order to calculate the accuracy of the manually and default thresholded STL models, all STL models were superimposed on an optical scan of the dry female and male skulls ("gold standard"). The intra- and inter-observer variability of the manual threshold selection was good (intra-class correlation coefficients >0.9). All engineers selected grey values closer to soft tissue to compensate for bone voids. Geometric variations between the manually thresholded STL models were 0.13 mm (multi-detector row CT), 0.59 mm (dual-energy CT), and 0.55 mm (cone-beam CT). All STL models demonstrated inaccuracies ranging from -0.8 to +1.1 mm (multi-detector row CT), -0.7 to +2.0 mm (dual-energy CT), and -2.3 to +4.8 mm (cone-beam CT). This study demonstrates that manual threshold selection results in better STL models than default thresholding. The use of dual-energy CT and cone-beam CT technology in its present form does not deliver reliable or accurate STL models for medical additive manufacturing. New approaches are required that are based on pattern recognition and machine learning algorithms.

Population dynamics of live-attenuated virus vaccines.

PubMed

Wagner, Bradley G; Earn, David J D

2010-03-01

Viruses contained in live-attenuated virus vaccines (LAVV) can be transmitted between individuals, resulting in secondary or contact vaccinations. This fact has been exploited successfully in the use of the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) to better control wild-type polio viruses. In this work we analyze general LAVV vaccination models for infections that confer lifelong immunity. We consider both standard (continuous) vaccination strategies and pulse vaccination programs (where mass vaccination is carried out at regular intervals). For continuous vaccination, we provide a complete global analysis of a very general compartmental ordinary differential equation LAVV model. We find that the threshold vaccination level required for the eradication of wild-type virus depends on the basic reproduction numbers of both the wild-type and vaccine viruses, but is otherwise independent of the distributions of the durations in each of the sequence of stages of disease progression (e.g., latent, infectious, etc.). Furthermore, even for vaccine viruses with reproduction numbers below one, which would naturally fade from the population upon cessation of vaccination, there can be a significant reduction in the threshold vaccination level. The dependence of the threshold vaccination level on the virus reproduction numbers largely generalizes to the pulse vaccination model. For shorter pulsing periods there is negligible difference in threshold vaccination level as compared to continuous vaccination campaigns. Thus, we conclude that current policy in many countries to employ annual pulsed OPV vaccination does not significantly diminish the benefits of contact vaccination. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The modelled cost-effectiveness of cognitive dissonance for the prevention of anorexia nervosa and bulimia nervosa in adolescent girls in Australia.

PubMed

Le, Long Khanh-Dao; Barendregt, Jan J; Hay, Phillipa; Sawyer, Susan M; Paxton, Susan J; Mihalopoulos, Cathrine

2017-07-01

Eating disorders (EDs), including anorexia nervosa (AN) and bulimia nervosa (BN), are prevalent disorders that carry substantial economic and social burden. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the modelled population cost-effectiveness of cognitive dissonance (CD), a school-based preventive intervention for EDs, in the Australian health care context. A population-based Markov model was developed to estimate the cost per disability adjusted life-year (DALY) averted by CD relative to no intervention. We modelled the cases of AN and BN that could be prevented over a 10-year time horizon in each study arm and the subsequent reduction in DALYs associated with this. The target population was 15-18 year old secondary school girls with high body-image concerns. This study only considered costs of the health sector providing services and not costs to individuals. Multivariate probabilistic and one-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to test model assumptions. Findings showed that the mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratio at base-case for the intervention was $103,980 per DALY averted with none of the uncertainty iterations falling below the threshold of AUD$50,000 per DALY averted. The evaluation was most sensitive to estimates of participant rates with higher rates associated with more favourable results. The intervention would become cost-effective (84% chance) if the effect of the intervention lasted up to 5 years. As modelled, school-based CD intervention is not a cost-effective preventive intervention for AN and BN. Given the burden of EDs, understanding how to improve participation rates is an important opportunity for future research. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Performance breakdown in optimal stimulus decoding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kostal, Lubomir; Lansky, Petr; Pilarski, Stevan

2015-06-01

Objective. One of the primary goals of neuroscience is to understand how neurons encode and process information about their environment. The problem is often approached indirectly by examining the degree to which the neuronal response reflects the stimulus feature of interest. Approach. In this context, the methods of signal estimation and detection theory provide the theoretical limits on the decoding accuracy with which the stimulus can be identified. The Cramér-Rao lower bound on the decoding precision is widely used, since it can be evaluated easily once the mathematical model of the stimulus-response relationship is determined. However, little is known about the behavior of different decoding schemes with respect to the bound if the neuronal population size is limited. Main results. We show that under broad conditions the optimal decoding displays a threshold-like shift in performance in dependence on the population size. The onset of the threshold determines a critical range where a small increment in size, signal-to-noise ratio or observation time yields a dramatic gain in the decoding precision. Significance. We demonstrate the existence of such threshold regions in early auditory and olfactory information coding. We discuss the origin of the threshold effect and its impact on the design of effective coding approaches in terms of relevant population size.

Performance breakdown in optimal stimulus decoding.

PubMed

Lubomir Kostal; Lansky, Petr; Pilarski, Stevan

2015-06-01

One of the primary goals of neuroscience is to understand how neurons encode and process information about their environment. The problem is often approached indirectly by examining the degree to which the neuronal response reflects the stimulus feature of interest. In this context, the methods of signal estimation and detection theory provide the theoretical limits on the decoding accuracy with which the stimulus can be identified. The Cramér-Rao lower bound on the decoding precision is widely used, since it can be evaluated easily once the mathematical model of the stimulus-response relationship is determined. However, little is known about the behavior of different decoding schemes with respect to the bound if the neuronal population size is limited. We show that under broad conditions the optimal decoding displays a threshold-like shift in performance in dependence on the population size. The onset of the threshold determines a critical range where a small increment in size, signal-to-noise ratio or observation time yields a dramatic gain in the decoding precision. We demonstrate the existence of such threshold regions in early auditory and olfactory information coding. We discuss the origin of the threshold effect and its impact on the design of effective coding approaches in terms of relevant population size.

Luminance-model-based DCT quantization for color image compression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ahumada, Albert J., Jr.; Peterson, Heidi A.

1992-01-01

A model is developed to approximate visibility thresholds for discrete cosine transform (DCT) coefficient quantization error based on the peak-to-peak luminance of the error image. Experimentally measured visibility thresholds for R, G, and B DCT basis functions can be predicted by a simple luminance-based detection model. This model allows DCT coefficient quantization matrices to be designed for display conditions other than those of the experimental measurements: other display luminances, other veiling luminances, and other spatial frequencies (different pixel spacings, viewing distances, and aspect ratios).

An Individual-Based Model of the Evolution of Pesticide Resistance in Heterogeneous Environments: Control of Meligethes aeneus Population in Oilseed Rape Crops

PubMed Central

Stratonovitch, Pierre; Elias, Jan; Denholm, Ian; Slater, Russell; Semenov, Mikhail A.

2014-01-01

Preventing a pest population from damaging an agricultural crop and, at the same time, preventing the development of pesticide resistance is a major challenge in crop protection. Understanding how farming practices and environmental factors interact with pest characteristics to influence the spread of resistance is a difficult and complex task. It is extremely challenging to investigate such interactions experimentally at realistic spatial and temporal scales. Mathematical modelling and computer simulation have, therefore, been used to analyse resistance evolution and to evaluate potential resistance management tactics. Of the many modelling approaches available, individual-based modelling of a pest population offers most flexibility to include and analyse numerous factors and their interactions. Here, a pollen beetle (Meligethes aeneus) population was modelled as an aggregate of individual insects inhabiting a spatially heterogeneous landscape. The development of the pest and host crop (oilseed rape) was driven by climatic variables. The agricultural land of the landscape was managed by farmers applying a specific rotation and crop protection strategy. The evolution of a single resistance allele to the pyrethroid lambda cyhalothrin was analysed for different combinations of crop management practices and for a recessive, intermediate and dominant resistance allele. While the spread of a recessive resistance allele was severely constrained, intermediate or dominant resistance alleles showed a similar response to the management regime imposed. Calendar treatments applied irrespective of pest density accelerated the development of resistance compared to ones applied in response to prescribed pest density thresholds. A greater proportion of spring-sown oilseed rape was also found to increase the speed of resistance as it increased the period of insecticide exposure. Our study demonstrates the flexibility and power of an individual-based model to simulate how farming practices affect pest population dynamics, and the consequent impact of different control strategies on the risk and speed of resistance development. PMID:25531104

An individual-based model of the evolution of pesticide resistance in heterogeneous environments: control of Meligethes aeneus population in oilseed rape crops.

PubMed

Stratonovitch, Pierre; Elias, Jan; Denholm, Ian; Slater, Russell; Semenov, Mikhail A

2014-01-01

Preventing a pest population from damaging an agricultural crop and, at the same time, preventing the development of pesticide resistance is a major challenge in crop protection. Understanding how farming practices and environmental factors interact with pest characteristics to influence the spread of resistance is a difficult and complex task. It is extremely challenging to investigate such interactions experimentally at realistic spatial and temporal scales. Mathematical modelling and computer simulation have, therefore, been used to analyse resistance evolution and to evaluate potential resistance management tactics. Of the many modelling approaches available, individual-based modelling of a pest population offers most flexibility to include and analyse numerous factors and their interactions. Here, a pollen beetle (Meligethes aeneus) population was modelled as an aggregate of individual insects inhabiting a spatially heterogeneous landscape. The development of the pest and host crop (oilseed rape) was driven by climatic variables. The agricultural land of the landscape was managed by farmers applying a specific rotation and crop protection strategy. The evolution of a single resistance allele to the pyrethroid lambda cyhalothrin was analysed for different combinations of crop management practices and for a recessive, intermediate and dominant resistance allele. While the spread of a recessive resistance allele was severely constrained, intermediate or dominant resistance alleles showed a similar response to the management regime imposed. Calendar treatments applied irrespective of pest density accelerated the development of resistance compared to ones applied in response to prescribed pest density thresholds. A greater proportion of spring-sown oilseed rape was also found to increase the speed of resistance as it increased the period of insecticide exposure. Our study demonstrates the flexibility and power of an individual-based model to simulate how farming practices affect pest population dynamics, and the consequent impact of different control strategies on the risk and speed of resistance development.

Persistent oscillations and backward bifurcation in a malaria model with varying human and mosquito populations: implications for control.

PubMed

Ngonghala, Calistus N; Teboh-Ewungkem, Miranda I; Ngwa, Gideon A

2015-06-01

We derive and study a deterministic compartmental model for malaria transmission with varying human and mosquito populations. Our model considers disease-related deaths, asymptomatic immune humans who are also infectious, as well as mosquito demography, reproduction and feeding habits. Analysis of the model reveals the existence of a backward bifurcation and persistent limit cycles whose period and size is determined by two threshold parameters: the vectorial basic reproduction number Rm, and the disease basic reproduction number R0, whose size can be reduced by reducing Rm. We conclude that malaria dynamics are indeed oscillatory when the methodology of explicitly incorporating the mosquito's demography, feeding and reproductive patterns is considered in modeling the mosquito population dynamics. A sensitivity analysis reveals important control parameters that can affect the magnitudes of Rm and R0, threshold quantities to be taken into consideration when designing control strategies. Both Rm and the intrinsic period of oscillation are shown to be highly sensitive to the mosquito's birth constant λm and the mosquito's feeding success probability pw. Control of λm can be achieved by spraying, eliminating breeding sites or moving them away from human habitats, while pw can be controlled via the use of mosquito repellant and insecticide-treated bed-nets. The disease threshold parameter R0 is shown to be highly sensitive to pw, and the intrinsic period of oscillation is also sensitive to the rate at which reproducing mosquitoes return to breeding sites. A global sensitivity and uncertainty analysis reveals that the ability of the mosquito to reproduce and uncertainties in the estimations of the rates at which exposed humans become infectious and infectious humans recover from malaria are critical in generating uncertainties in the disease classes.

Macroscopic neural mass model constructed from a current-based network model of spiking neurons.

PubMed

Umehara, Hiroaki; Okada, Masato; Teramae, Jun-Nosuke; Naruse, Yasushi

2017-02-01

Neural mass models (NMMs) are efficient frameworks for describing macroscopic cortical dynamics including electroencephalogram and magnetoencephalogram signals. Originally, these models were formulated on an empirical basis of synaptic dynamics with relatively long time constants. By clarifying the relations between NMMs and the dynamics of microscopic structures such as neurons and synapses, we can better understand cortical and neural mechanisms from a multi-scale perspective. In a previous study, the NMMs were analytically derived by averaging the equations of synaptic dynamics over the neurons in the population and further averaging the equations of the membrane-potential dynamics. However, the averaging of synaptic current assumes that the neuron membrane potentials are nearly time invariant and that they remain at sub-threshold levels to retain the conductance-based model. This approximation limits the NMM to the non-firing state. In the present study, we newly propose a derivation of a NMM by alternatively approximating the synaptic current which is assumed to be independent of the membrane potential, thus adopting a current-based model. Our proposed model releases the constraint of the nearly constant membrane potential. We confirm that the obtained model is reducible to the previous model in the non-firing situation and that it reproduces the temporal mean values and relative power spectrum densities of the average membrane potentials for the spiking neurons. It is further ensured that the existing NMM properly models the averaged dynamics over individual neurons even if they are spiking in the populations.

Structure of S-shaped growth in innovation diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimogawa, Shinsuke; Shinno, Miyuki; Saito, Hiroshi

2012-05-01

A basic question on innovation diffusion is why the growth curve of the adopter population in a large society is often S shaped. From macroscopic, microscopic, and mesoscopic viewpoints, the growth of the adopter population is observed as the growth curve, individual adoptions, and differences among individual adoptions, respectively. The S shape can be explained if an empirical model of the growth curve can be deduced from models of microscopic and mesoscopic structures. However, even the structure of growth curve has not been revealed yet because long-term extrapolations by proposed models of S-shaped curves are unstable and it has been very difficult to predict the long-term growth and final adopter population. This paper studies the S-shaped growth from the viewpoint of social regularities. Simple methods to analyze power laws enable us to extract the structure of the growth curve directly from the growth data of recent basic telecommunication services. This empirical model of growth curve is singular at the inflection point and a logarithmic function of time after this point, which explains the unstable extrapolations obtained using previously proposed models and the difficulty in predicting the final adopter population. Because the empirical S curve can be expressed in terms of two power laws of the regularity found in social performances of individuals, we propose the hypothesis that the S shape represents the heterogeneity of the adopter population, and the heterogeneity parameter is distributed under the regularity in social performances of individuals. This hypothesis is so powerful as to yield models of microscopic and mesoscopic structures. In the microscopic model, each potential adopter adopts the innovation when the information accumulated by the learning about the innovation exceeds a threshold. The accumulation rate of information is heterogeneous among the adopter population, whereas the threshold is a constant, which is the opposite of previously proposed models. In the mesoscopic model, flows of innovation information incoming to individuals are organized as dimorphic and partially clustered. These microscopic and mesoscopic models yield the empirical model of the S curve and explain the S shape as representing the regularities of information flows generated through a social self-organization. To demonstrate the validity and importance of the hypothesis, the models of three level structures are applied to reveal the mechanism determining and differentiating diffusion speeds. The empirical model of S curves implies that the coefficient of variation of the flow rates determines the diffusion speed for later adopters. Based on this property, a model describing the inside of information flow clusters can be given, which provides a formula interconnecting the diffusion speed, cluster populations, and a network topological parameter of the flow clusters. For two recent basic telecommunication services in Japan, the formula represents the variety of speeds in different areas and enables us to explain speed gaps between urban and rural areas and between the two services. Furthermore, the formula provides a method to estimate the final adopter population.

South Dakota Kids Count Factbook, 2001.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cochran, Carole, Ed.

This Kids Count factbook examines statewide trends in well-being for South Dakota's children. The statistical portrait is based on 24 indicators in the areas of demographics, health, education, economic status, and safety. The indicators are: (1) poverty thresholds; (2) population; (3) population on Indian Reservations; (4) infant mortality; (5)…

When is rational to order a diagnostic test, or prescribe treatment: the threshold model as an explanation of practice variation.

PubMed

Djulbegovic, Benjamin; van den Ende, Jef; Hamm, Robert M; Mayrhofer, Thomas; Hozo, Iztok; Pauker, Stephen G

2015-05-01

The threshold model represents an important advance in the field of medical decision-making. It is a linchpin between evidence (which exists on the continuum of credibility) and decision-making (which is a categorical exercise - we decide to act or not act). The threshold concept is closely related to the question of rational decision-making. When should the physician act, that is order a diagnostic test, or prescribe treatment? The threshold model embodies the decision theoretic rationality that says the most rational decision is to prescribe treatment when the expected treatment benefit outweighs its expected harms. However, the well-documented large variation in the way physicians order diagnostic tests or decide to administer treatments is consistent with a notion that physicians' individual action thresholds vary. We present a narrative review summarizing the existing literature on physicians' use of a threshold strategy for decision-making. We found that the observed variation in decision action thresholds is partially due to the way people integrate benefits and harms. That is, explanation of variation in clinical practice can be reduced to a consideration of thresholds. Limited evidence suggests that non-expected utility threshold (non-EUT) models, such as regret-based and dual-processing models, may explain current medical practice better. However, inclusion of costs and recognition of risk attitudes towards uncertain treatment effects and comorbidities may improve the explanatory and predictive value of the EUT-based threshold models. The decision when to act is closely related to the question of rational choice. We conclude that the medical community has not yet fully defined criteria for rational clinical decision-making. The traditional notion of rationality rooted in EUT may need to be supplemented by reflective rationality, which strives to integrate all aspects of medical practice - medical, humanistic and socio-economic - within a coherent reasoning system. © 2015 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation.

Derivation of a target concentration of Pb in soil based on elevation of adult blood pressure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stern, A.H.

1996-04-01

The increase in systolic blood pressure in males appears to be the most sensitive adult endpoint appropriate for deriving a health risk-based target level of lead (Ph) in soil. Because the response of blood pressure to blood Ph concentration (PbB) has no apparent threshold, traditional approaches based on the application of a Reference Dose (RfD) are not applicable. An alternative approach is presented based on a model which predicts the population shift in systolic blood pressure from ingestion of Pb contaminated soil as a simultaneous function of exposure to Pb in soil, the baseline distribution of blood Pb concentration inmore » the population and the baseline distribution of systolic pressure in the population. This model is analyzed using Monte Carlo analysis to predict the population distribution of systolic pressure resulting from Ph exposure. Based on this analysis, it is predicted that for adult males 18-65 years old, exposure to 1000 ppm Pb in soil will result in an increase of approximately 1 mm Hg systolic pressure, an increase in the incidence of systolic hypertension (i.e., systolic pressure >140 mm Hg) of approximately 1% and an increase in PbB of 1-3 {mu}g/dl. Based on the proposition that these adverse effects can be considered de minimis, 1000 ppm Ph in soil is proposed as a target soil concentration for adult exposure. Available data do not appear to be adequate to predict the newborn PbB level which would result from exposure to this soil level during pregnancy, 36 refs., 6 figs.« less

Cost-effectiveness of population based BRCA testing with varying Ashkenazi Jewish ancestry.

PubMed

Manchanda, Ranjit; Patel, Shreeya; Antoniou, Antonis C; Levy-Lahad, Ephrat; Turnbull, Clare; Evans, D Gareth; Hopper, John L; Macinnis, Robert J; Menon, Usha; Jacobs, Ian; Legood, Rosa

2017-11-01

Population-based BRCA1/BRCA2 testing has been found to be cost-effective compared with family history-based testing in Ashkenazi-Jewish women were >30 years old with 4 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents. However, individuals may have 1, 2, or 3 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents, and cost-effectiveness data are lacking at these lower BRCA prevalence estimates. We present an updated cost-effectiveness analysis of population BRCA1/BRCA2 testing for women with 1, 2, and 3 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparents. Decision analysis model. Lifetime costs and effects of population and family history-based testing were compared with the use of a decision analysis model. 56% BRCA carriers are missed by family history criteria alone. Analyses were conducted for United Kingdom and United States populations. Model parameters were obtained from the Genetic Cancer Prediction through Population Screening trial and published literature. Model parameters and BRCA population prevalence for individuals with 3, 2, or 1 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent were adjusted for the relative frequency of BRCA mutations in the Ashkenazi-Jewish and general populations. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated for all Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent scenarios. Costs, along with outcomes, were discounted at 3.5%. The time horizon of the analysis is "life-time," and perspective is "payer." Probabilistic sensitivity analysis evaluated model uncertainty. Population testing for BRCA mutations is cost-saving in Ashkenazi-Jewish women with 2, 3, or 4 grandparents (22-33 days life-gained) in the United Kingdom and 1, 2, 3, or 4 grandparents (12-26 days life-gained) in the United States populations, respectively. It is also extremely cost-effective in women in the United Kingdom with just 1 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £863 per quality-adjusted life-years and 15 days life gained. Results show that population-testing remains cost-effective at the £20,000-30000 per quality-adjusted life-years and $100,000 per quality-adjusted life-years willingness-to-pay thresholds for all 4 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent scenarios, with ≥95% simulations found to be cost-effective on probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Population-testing remains cost-effective in the absence of reduction in breast cancer risk from oophorectomy and at lower risk-reducing mastectomy (13%) or risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (20%) rates. Population testing for BRCA mutations with varying levels of Ashkenazi-Jewish ancestry is cost-effective in the United Kingdom and the United States. These results support population testing in Ashkenazi-Jewish women with 1-4 Ashkenazi-Jewish grandparent ancestry. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

EDENetworks: a user-friendly software to build and analyse networks in biogeography, ecology and population genetics.

PubMed

Kivelä, Mikko; Arnaud-Haond, Sophie; Saramäki, Jari

2015-01-01

The recent application of graph-based network theory analysis to biogeography, community ecology and population genetics has created a need for user-friendly software, which would allow a wider accessibility to and adaptation of these methods. EDENetworks aims to fill this void by providing an easy-to-use interface for the whole analysis pipeline of ecological and evolutionary networks starting from matrices of species distributions, genotypes, bacterial OTUs or populations characterized genetically. The user can choose between several different ecological distance metrics, such as Bray-Curtis or Sorensen distance, or population genetic metrics such as FST or Goldstein distances, to turn the raw data into a distance/dissimilarity matrix. This matrix is then transformed into a network by manual or automatic thresholding based on percolation theory or by building the minimum spanning tree. The networks can be visualized along with auxiliary data and analysed with various metrics such as degree, clustering coefficient, assortativity and betweenness centrality. The statistical significance of the results can be estimated either by resampling the original biological data or by null models based on permutations of the data. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bayesian inference and assessment for rare-event bycatch in marine fisheries: a drift gillnet fishery case study.

PubMed

Martin, Summer L; Stohs, Stephen M; Moore, Jeffrey E

2015-03-01

Fisheries bycatch is a global threat to marine megafauna. Environmental laws require bycatch assessment for protected species, but this is difficult when bycatch is rare. Low bycatch rates, combined with low observer coverage, may lead to biased, imprecise estimates when using standard ratio estimators. Bayesian model-based approaches incorporate uncertainty, produce less volatile estimates, and enable probabilistic evaluation of estimates relative to management thresholds. Here, we demonstrate a pragmatic decision-making process that uses Bayesian model-based inferences to estimate the probability of exceeding management thresholds for bycatch in fisheries with < 100% observer coverage. Using the California drift gillnet fishery as a case study, we (1) model rates of rare-event bycatch and mortality using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods and 20 years of observer data; (2) predict unobserved counts of bycatch and mortality; (3) infer expected annual mortality; (4) determine probabilities of mortality exceeding regulatory thresholds; and (5) classify the fishery as having low, medium, or high bycatch impact using those probabilities. We focused on leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) and humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). Candidate models included Poisson or zero-inflated Poisson likelihood, fishing effort, and a bycatch rate that varied with area, time, or regulatory regime. Regulatory regime had the strongest effect on leatherback bycatch, with the highest levels occurring prior to a regulatory change. Area had the strongest effect on humpback bycatch. Cumulative bycatch estimates for the 20-year period were 104-242 leatherbacks (52-153 deaths) and 6-50 humpbacks (0-21 deaths). The probability of exceeding a regulatory threshold under the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act (Potential Biological Removal, PBR) of 0.113 humpback deaths was 0.58, warranting a "medium bycatch impact" classification of the fishery. No PBR thresholds exist for leatherbacks, but the probability of exceeding an anticipated level of two deaths per year, stated as part of a U.S. Endangered Species Act assessment process, was 0.0007. The approach demonstrated here would allow managers to objectively and probabilistically classify fisheries with respect to bycatch impacts on species that have population-relevant mortality reference points, and declare with a stipulated level of certainty that bycatch did or did not exceed estimated upper bounds.

Octave-Band Thresholds for Modeled Reverberant Fields

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Begault, Durand R.; Wenzel, Elizabeth M.; Tran, Laura L.; Anderson, Mark R.; Trejo, Leonard J. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

Auditory thresholds for 10 subjects were obtained for speech stimuli reverberation. The reverberation was produced and manipulated by 3-D audio modeling based on an actual room. The independent variables were octave-band-filtering (bypassed, 0.25 - 2.0 kHz Fc) and reverberation time (0.2- 1.1 sec). An ANOVA revealed significant effects (threshold range: -19 to -35 dB re 60 dB SRL).

The Montreal Cognitive Assessment and the mini-mental state examination as screening instruments for cognitive impairment: item analyses and threshold scores.

PubMed

Damian, Anne M; Jacobson, Sandra A; Hentz, Joseph G; Belden, Christine M; Shill, Holly A; Sabbagh, Marwan N; Caviness, John N; Adler, Charles H

2011-01-01

To perform an item analysis of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) versus the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) in the prediction of cognitive impairment, and to examine the characteristics of different MoCA threshold scores. 135 subjects enrolled in a longitudinal clinicopathologic study were administered the MoCA by a single physician and the MMSE by a trained research assistant. Subjects were classified as cognitively impaired or cognitively normal based on independent neuropsychological testing. 89 subjects were found to be cognitively normal, and 46 cognitively impaired (20 with dementia, 26 with mild cognitive impairment). The MoCA was superior in both sensitivity and specificity to the MMSE, although not all MoCA tasks were of equal predictive value. A MoCA threshold score of 26 had a sensitivity of 98% and a specificity of 52% in this population. In a population with a 20% prevalence of cognitive impairment, a threshold of 24 was optimal (negative predictive value 96%, positive predictive value 47%). This analysis suggests the potential for creating an abbreviated MoCA. For screening in primary care, the MoCA threshold of 26 appears optimal. For testing in a memory disorders clinic, a lower threshold has better predictive value. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Thresholds and the rising pion inclusive cross section

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jones, S.T.

In the context of the hypothesis of the Pomeron-f identity, it is shown that the rising pion inclusive cross section can be explained over a wide range of energies as a series of threshold effects. Low-mass thresholds are seen to be important. In order to understand the contributions of high-mass thresholds (flavoring), a simple two-channel multiperipheral model is examined. The analysis sheds light on the relation between thresholds and Mueller-Regge couplings. In particular, it is seen that inclusive-, and total-cross-section threshold mechanisms may differ. A quantitative model based on this idea and utilizing previous total-cross-section fits is seen to agreemore » well with experiment.« less

Noise-induced extinction for a ratio-dependent predator-prey model with strong Allee effect in prey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mandal, Partha Sarathi

2018-04-01

In this paper, we study a stochastically forced ratio-dependent predator-prey model with strong Allee effect in prey population. In the deterministic case, we show that the model exhibits the stable interior equilibrium point or limit cycle corresponding to the co-existence of both species. We investigate a probabilistic mechanism of the noise-induced extinction in a zone of stable interior equilibrium point. Computational methods based on the stochastic sensitivity function technique are applied for the analysis of the dispersion of random states near stable interior equilibrium point. This method allows to construct a confidence domain and estimate the threshold value of the noise intensity for a transition from the coexistence to the extinction.

Modelling the regulatory system for diabetes mellitus with a threshold window

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Jin; Tang, Sanyi; Cheke, Robert A.

2015-05-01

Piecewise (or non-smooth) glucose-insulin models with threshold windows for type 1 and type 2 diabetes mellitus are proposed and analyzed with a view to improving understanding of the glucose-insulin regulatory system. For glucose-insulin models with a single threshold, the existence and stability of regular, virtual, pseudo-equilibria and tangent points are addressed. Then the relations between regular equilibria and a pseudo-equilibrium are studied. Furthermore, the sufficient and necessary conditions for the global stability of regular equilibria and the pseudo-equilibrium are provided by using qualitative analysis techniques of non-smooth Filippov dynamic systems. Sliding bifurcations related to boundary node bifurcations were investigated with theoretical and numerical techniques, and insulin clinical therapies are discussed. For glucose-insulin models with a threshold window, the effects of glucose thresholds or the widths of threshold windows on the durations of insulin therapy and glucose infusion were addressed. The duration of the effects of an insulin injection is sensitive to the variation of thresholds. Our results indicate that blood glucose level can be maintained within a normal range using piecewise glucose-insulin models with a single threshold or a threshold window. Moreover, our findings suggest that it is critical to individualise insulin therapy for each patient separately, based on initial blood glucose levels.

Spatial vulnerability of Australian urban populations to extreme heat events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loughnan, Margaret; Tapper, Nigel; Phan, Thu; Lynch, Kellie; McInnes, Judith

2013-04-01

Extreme heat events pose a risk to the health of all individuals, especially the elderly and the chronically ill, and are associated with an increased demand for healthcare services. In order to address this problem, policy makers' need information about temperatures above which mortality and morbidity of the exposed population is likely to increase, where the vulnerable groups in the community are located, and how the risks from extreme heat events are likely to change in the future. This study identified threshold temperatures for all Australian capital cities, developed a spatial index of population vulnerability, and used climate model output to predict changes in the number of days exceeding temperature thresholds in the future, as well as changes in risk related to changes in urban density and an ageing population. The study has shown that daily maximum and minimum temperatures from the Bureau of Meteorology forecasts can be used to calculate temperature thresholds for heat alert days. The key risk factors related to adverse health outcomes were found to be areas with intense urban heat islands, areas with higher proportions of older people, and areas with ethnic communities. Maps of spatial vulnerability have been developed to provide information to assist emergency managers, healthcare professionals, and ancillary services develop heatwave preparedness plans at a local scale that target vulnerable groups and address heat-related health risks. The numbers of days exceeding current heat thresholds are predicted to increase over the next 20 to 40 years in all Australian capital cities.

A framework for developing objective and measurable recovery criteria for threatened and endangered species.

PubMed

Himes Boor, Gina K

2014-02-01

For species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA), the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and National Marine Fisheries Service are tasked with writing recovery plans that include "objective, measurable criteria" that define when a species is no longer at risk of extinction, but neither the act itself nor agency guidelines provide an explicit definition of objective, measurable criteria. Past reviews of recovery plans, including one published in 2012, show that many criteria lack quantitative metrics with clear biological rationale and are not meeting the measureable and objective mandate. I reviewed how objective, measureable criteria have been defined implicitly and explicitly in peer-reviewed literature, the ESA, other U.S. statutes, and legal decisions. Based on a synthesis of these sources, I propose the following 6 standards be used as minimum requirements for objective, measurable criteria: contain a quantitative threshold with calculable units, stipulate a timeframe over which they must be met, explicitly define the spatial extent or population to which they apply, specify a sampling procedure that includes sample size, specify a statistical significance level, and include justification by providing scientific evidence that the criteria define a species whose extinction risk has been reduced to the desired level. To meet these 6 standards, I suggest that recovery plans be explicitly guided by and organized around a population viability modeling framework even if data or agency resources are too limited to complete a viability model. When data and resources are available, recovery criteria can be developed from the population viability model results, but when data and resources are insufficient for model implementation, extinction risk thresholds can be used as criteria. A recovery-planning approach centered on viability modeling will also yield appropriately focused data-acquisition and monitoring plans and will facilitate a seamless transition from recovery planning to delisting. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Age correction in monitoring audiometry: method to update OSHA age-correction tables to include older workers

PubMed Central

Dobie, Robert A; Wojcik, Nancy C

2015-01-01

Objectives The US Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) Noise Standard provides the option for employers to apply age corrections to employee audiograms to consider the contribution of ageing when determining whether a standard threshold shift has occurred. Current OSHA age-correction tables are based on 40-year-old data, with small samples and an upper age limit of 60 years. By comparison, recent data (1999–2006) show that hearing thresholds in the US population have improved. Because hearing thresholds have improved, and because older people are increasingly represented in noisy occupations, the OSHA tables no longer represent the current US workforce. This paper presents 2 options for updating the age-correction tables and extending values to age 75 years using recent population-based hearing survey data from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Both options provide scientifically derived age-correction values that can be easily adopted by OSHA to expand their regulatory guidance to include older workers. Methods Regression analysis was used to derive new age-correction values using audiometric data from the 1999–2006 US NHANES. Using the NHANES median, better-ear thresholds fit to simple polynomial equations, new age-correction values were generated for both men and women for ages 20–75 years. Results The new age-correction values are presented as 2 options. The preferred option is to replace the current OSHA tables with the values derived from the NHANES median better-ear thresholds for ages 20–75 years. The alternative option is to retain the current OSHA age-correction values up to age 60 years and use the NHANES-based values for ages 61–75 years. Conclusions Recent NHANES data offer a simple solution to the need for updated, population-based, age-correction tables for OSHA. The options presented here provide scientifically valid and relevant age-correction values which can be easily adopted by OSHA to expand their regulatory guidance to include older workers. PMID:26169804

Age correction in monitoring audiometry: method to update OSHA age-correction tables to include older workers.

PubMed

Dobie, Robert A; Wojcik, Nancy C

2015-07-13

The US Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) Noise Standard provides the option for employers to apply age corrections to employee audiograms to consider the contribution of ageing when determining whether a standard threshold shift has occurred. Current OSHA age-correction tables are based on 40-year-old data, with small samples and an upper age limit of 60 years. By comparison, recent data (1999-2006) show that hearing thresholds in the US population have improved. Because hearing thresholds have improved, and because older people are increasingly represented in noisy occupations, the OSHA tables no longer represent the current US workforce. This paper presents 2 options for updating the age-correction tables and extending values to age 75 years using recent population-based hearing survey data from the US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). Both options provide scientifically derived age-correction values that can be easily adopted by OSHA to expand their regulatory guidance to include older workers. Regression analysis was used to derive new age-correction values using audiometric data from the 1999-2006 US NHANES. Using the NHANES median, better-ear thresholds fit to simple polynomial equations, new age-correction values were generated for both men and women for ages 20-75 years. The new age-correction values are presented as 2 options. The preferred option is to replace the current OSHA tables with the values derived from the NHANES median better-ear thresholds for ages 20-75 years. The alternative option is to retain the current OSHA age-correction values up to age 60 years and use the NHANES-based values for ages 61-75 years. Recent NHANES data offer a simple solution to the need for updated, population-based, age-correction tables for OSHA. The options presented here provide scientifically valid and relevant age-correction values which can be easily adopted by OSHA to expand their regulatory guidance to include older workers. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

The evolution of conditional dispersal and reproductive isolation along environmental gradients

PubMed Central

Payne, Joshua L.; Mazzucco, Rupert; Dieckmann, Ulf

2011-01-01

Dispersal modulates gene flow throughout a population’s spatial range. Gene flow affects adaptation at local spatial scales, and consequently impacts the evolution of reproductive isolation. A recent theoretical investigation has demonstrated that local adaptation along an environmental gradient, facilitated by the evolution of limited dispersal, can lead to parapatric speciation even in the absence of assortative mating. This and other studies assumed unconditional dispersal, so individuals start dispersing without regard to local environmental conditions. However, many species disperse conditionally; their propensity to disperse is contingent upon environmental cues, such as the degree of local crowding or the availability of suitable mates. Here, we use an individual-based model in continuous space to investigate by numerical simulation the relationship between the evolution of threshold-based conditional dispersal and parapatric speciation driven by frequency-dependent competition along environmental gradients. We find that, as with unconditional dispersal, parapatric speciation occurs under a broad range of conditions when reproduction is asexual, and under a more restricted range of conditions when reproduction is sexual. In both the asexual and sexual cases, the evolution of conditional dispersal is strongly influenced by the slope of the environmental gradient: shallow environmental gradients result in low dispersal thresholds and high dispersal distances, while steep environmental gradients result in high dispersal thresholds and low dispersal distances. The latter, however, remain higher than under unconditional dispersal, thus undermining isolation by distance, and hindering speciation in sexual populations. Consequently, the speciation of sexual populations under conditional dispersal is triggered by a steeper gradient than under unconditional dispersal. Enhancing the disruptiveness of frequency-dependent selection, more box-shaped competition kernels dramatically lower the speciation-enabling slope of the environmental gradient. PMID:21194533

Effect of thermal insulation on the electrical characteristics of NbOx threshold switches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ziwen; Kumar, Suhas; Wong, H.-S. Philip; Nishi, Yoshio

2018-02-01

Threshold switches based on niobium oxide (NbOx) are promising candidates as bidirectional selector devices in crossbar memory arrays and building blocks for neuromorphic computing. Here, it is experimentally demonstrated that the electrical characteristics of NbOx threshold switches can be tuned by engineering the thermal insulation. Increasing the thermal insulation by ˜10× is shown to produce ˜7× reduction in threshold current and ˜45% reduction in threshold voltage. The reduced threshold voltage leads to ˜5× reduction in half-selection leakage, which highlights the effectiveness of reducing half-selection leakage of NbOx selectors by engineering the thermal insulation. A thermal feedback model based on Poole-Frenkel conduction in NbOx can explain the experimental results very well, which also serves as a piece of strong evidence supporting the validity of the Poole-Frenkel based mechanism in NbOx threshold switches.

Uncertainties in extreme surge level estimates from observational records.

PubMed

van den Brink, H W; Können, G P; Opsteegh, J D

2005-06-15

Ensemble simulations with a total length of 7540 years are generated with a climate model, and coupled to a simple surge model to transform the wind field over the North Sea to the skew surge level at Delfzijl, The Netherlands. The 65 constructed surge records, each with a record length of 116 years, are analysed with the generalized extreme value (GEV) and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to study both the model and sample uncertainty in surge level estimates with a return period of 104 years, as derived from 116-year records. The optimal choice of the threshold, needed for an unbiased GPD estimate from peak over threshold (POT) values, cannot be determined objectively from a 100-year dataset. This fact, in combination with the sensitivity of the GPD estimate to the threshold, and its tendency towards too low estimates, leaves the application of the GEV distribution to storm-season maxima as the best approach. If the GPD analysis is applied, then the exceedance rate, lambda, chosen should not be larger than 4. The climate model hints at the existence of a second population of very intense storms. As the existence of such a second population can never be excluded from a 100-year record, the estimated 104-year wind-speed from such records has always to be interpreted as a lower limit.

Cost-effectiveness of alendronate in the treatment of postmenopausal women in 9 European countries--an economic evaluation based on the fracture intervention trial.

PubMed

Ström, O; Borgström, F; Sen, S S; Boonen, S; Haentjens, P; Johnell, O; Kanis, J A

2007-08-01

Treatment with alendronate (Fosamax) has been shown to significantly reduce the risk of fragility fractures. Cost-effectiveness of treatment was assessed in nine European countries in a Markov model and was generally found to be cost effective in women with a previous spine fracture. Treatment with alendronate (Fosamax) reduces the risk of osteoporotic fractures at the spine, hip and wrist in women with and without prevalent vertebral fracture. Cost-effectiveness estimates in one country may not be applicable elsewhere due to differences in fracture risks, costs and drug prices. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of treating postmenopausal women with alendronate in nine European countries, comprising Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and the UK. A Markov model was populated with data for the nine European populations. Effect of treatment was taken from the Fracture Intervention Trial, which recruited women with low BMD alone or with a prior vertebral fracture. The cost per QALY gained of treating postmenopausal women with prior vertebral fractures ranged in the base case from "cost saving" in the Scandinavian countries to 15,000 in Italy. Corresponding estimates for women without prior vertebral fractures ranged from "cost saving" to 40,000. In relation to thresholds generally used, the analysis suggests that alendronate is very cost effective in the treatment of women with previous vertebral fracture, and in women without previous vertebral fracture, cost-effectiveness depends on the country setting, discount rates, and chosen monetary thresholds.

Comparison between intensity- duration thresholds and cumulative rainfall thresholds for the forecasting of landslide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lagomarsino, Daniela; Rosi, Ascanio; Rossi, Guglielmo; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo

2014-05-01

This work makes a quantitative comparison between the results of landslide forecasting obtained using two different rainfall threshold models, one using intensity-duration thresholds and the other based on cumulative rainfall thresholds in an area of northern Tuscany of 116 km2. The first methodology identifies rainfall intensity-duration thresholds by means a software called MaCumBA (Massive CUMulative Brisk Analyzer) that analyzes rain-gauge records, extracts the intensities (I) and durations (D) of the rainstorms associated with the initiation of landslides, plots these values on a diagram, and identifies thresholds that define the lower bounds of the I-D values. A back analysis using data from past events can be used to identify the threshold conditions associated with the least amount of false alarms. The second method (SIGMA) is based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering: the statistical distribution of the rainfall series is analyzed, and multiples of the standard deviation (σ) are used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. The name of the model, SIGMA, reflects the central role of the standard deviations in the proposed methodology. The definition of intensity-duration rainfall thresholds requires the combined use of rainfall measurements and an inventory of dated landslides, whereas SIGMA model can be implemented using only rainfall data. These two methodologies were applied in an area of 116 km2 where a database of 1200 landslides was available for the period 2000-2012. The results obtained are compared and discussed. Although several examples of visual comparisons between different intensity-duration rainfall thresholds are reported in the international literature, a quantitative comparison between thresholds obtained in the same area using different techniques and approaches is a relatively undebated research topic.

Neural Correlates and Mechanisms of Spatial Release From Masking: Single-Unit and Population Responses in the Inferior Colliculus

PubMed Central

Lane, Courtney C.; Delgutte, Bertrand

2007-01-01

Spatial release from masking (SRM), a factor in listening in noisy environments, is the improvement in auditory signal detection obtained when a signal is separated in space from a masker. To study the neural mechanisms of SRM, we recorded from single units in the inferior colliculus (IC) of barbiturate-anesthetized cats, focusing on low-frequency neurons sensitive to interaural time differences. The stimulus was a broadband chirp train with a 40-Hz repetition rate in continuous broadband noise, and the unit responses were measured for several signal and masker (virtual) locations. Masked thresholds (the lowest signal-to-noise ratio, SNR, for which the signal could be detected for 75% of the stimulus presentations) changed systematically with signal and masker location. Single-unit thresholds did not necessarily improve with signal and masker separation; instead, they tended to reflect the units’ azimuth preference. Both how the signal was detected (through a rate increase or decrease) and how the noise masked the signal response (suppressive or excitatory masking) changed with signal and masker azimuth, consistent with a cross-correlator model of binaural processing. However, additional processing, perhaps related to the signal’s amplitude modulation rate, appeared to influence the units’ responses. The population masked thresholds (the most sensitive unit’s threshold at each signal and masker location) did improve with signal and masker separation as a result of the variety of azimuth preferences in our unit sample. The population thresholds were similar to human behavioral thresholds in both SNR value and shape, indicating that these units may provide a neural substrate for low-frequency SRM. PMID:15857966

Simulation of Healing Threshold in Strain-Induced Inflammation Through a Discrete Informatics Model.

PubMed

Ibrahim, Israr Bin M; Sarma O V, Sanjay; Pidaparti, Ramana M

2018-05-01

Respiratory diseases such as asthma and acute respiratory distress syndrome as well as acute lung injury involve inflammation at the cellular level. The inflammation process is very complex and is characterized by the emergence of cytokines along with other changes in cellular processes. Due to the complexity of the various constituents that makes up the inflammation dynamics, it is necessary to develop models that can complement experiments to fully understand inflammatory diseases. In this study, we developed a discrete informatics model based on cellular automata (CA) approach to investigate the influence of elastic field (stretch/strain) on the dynamics of inflammation and account for probabilistic adaptation based on statistical interpretation of existing experimental data. Our simulation model investigated the effects of low, medium, and high strain conditions on inflammation dynamics. Results suggest that the model is able to indicate the threshold of innate healing of tissue as a response to strain experienced by the tissue. When strain is under the threshold, the tissue is still capable of adapting its structure to heal the damaged part. However, there exists a strain threshold where healing capability breaks down. The results obtained demonstrate that the developed discrete informatics based CA model is capable of modeling and giving insights into inflammation dynamics parameters under various mechanical strain/stretch environments.

A statistical approach to quasi-extinction forecasting.

PubMed

Holmes, Elizabeth Eli; Sabo, John L; Viscido, Steven Vincent; Fagan, William Fredric

2007-12-01

Forecasting population decline to a certain critical threshold (the quasi-extinction risk) is one of the central objectives of population viability analysis (PVA), and such predictions figure prominently in the decisions of major conservation organizations. In this paper, we argue that accurate forecasting of a population's quasi-extinction risk does not necessarily require knowledge of the underlying biological mechanisms. Because of the stochastic and multiplicative nature of population growth, the ensemble behaviour of population trajectories converges to common statistical forms across a wide variety of stochastic population processes. This paper provides a theoretical basis for this argument. We show that the quasi-extinction surfaces of a variety of complex stochastic population processes (including age-structured, density-dependent and spatially structured populations) can be modelled by a simple stochastic approximation: the stochastic exponential growth process overlaid with Gaussian errors. Using simulated and real data, we show that this model can be estimated with 20-30 years of data and can provide relatively unbiased quasi-extinction risk with confidence intervals considerably smaller than (0,1). This was found to be true even for simulated data derived from some of the noisiest population processes (density-dependent feedback, species interactions and strong age-structure cycling). A key advantage of statistical models is that their parameters and the uncertainty of those parameters can be estimated from time series data using standard statistical methods. In contrast for most species of conservation concern, biologically realistic models must often be specified rather than estimated because of the limited data available for all the various parameters. Biologically realistic models will always have a prominent place in PVA for evaluating specific management options which affect a single segment of a population, a single demographic rate, or different geographic areas. However, for forecasting quasi-extinction risk, statistical models that are based on the convergent statistical properties of population processes offer many advantages over biologically realistic models.

Nonlinear Dynamic Modeling of Neuron Action Potential Threshold During Synaptically Driven Broadband Intracellular Activity

PubMed Central

Roach, Shane M.; Song, Dong; Berger, Theodore W.

2012-01-01

Activity-dependent variation of neuronal thresholds for action potential (AP) generation is one of the key determinants of spike-train temporal-pattern transformations from presynaptic to postsynaptic spike trains. In this study, we model the nonlinear dynamics of the threshold variation during synaptically driven broadband intracellular activity. First, membrane potentials of single CA1 pyramidal cells were recorded under physiologically plausible broadband stimulation conditions. Second, a method was developed to measure AP thresholds from the continuous recordings of membrane potentials. It involves measuring the turning points of APs by analyzing the third-order derivatives of the membrane potentials. Four stimulation paradigms with different temporal patterns were applied to validate this method by comparing the measured AP turning points and the actual AP thresholds estimated with varying stimulation intensities. Results show that the AP turning points provide consistent measurement of the AP thresholds, except for a constant offset. It indicates that 1) the variation of AP turning points represents the nonlinearities of threshold dynamics; and 2) an optimization of the constant offset is required to achieve accurate spike prediction. Third, a nonlinear dynamical third-order Volterra model was built to describe the relations between the threshold dynamics and the AP activities. Results show that the model can predict threshold accurately based on the preceding APs. Finally, the dynamic threshold model was integrated into a previously developed single neuron model and resulted in a 33% improvement in spike prediction. PMID:22156947

Dynamic complexities in a pest control model with birth pulse and harvesting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goel, A.; Gakkhar, S.

2016-04-01

In this paper, an impulsive model is discussed for an integrated pest management approach comprising of chemical and mechanical controls. The pesticides and harvesting are used to control the stage-structured pest population. The mature pest give birth to immature pest in pulses at regular intervals. The pest is controlled by spraying chemical pesticides affecting immature as well as mature pest. The harvesting of both immature and mature pest further reduce the pest population. The discrete dynamical system obtained from stroboscopic map is analyzed. The threshold conditions for stability of pest-free state as well as non-trivial period-1 solution is obtained. The effect of pesticide spray timing and harvesting on immature as well as mature pest are shown. Finally, by numerical simulation with MATLAB, the dynamical behaviors of the model is found to be complex. Above the threshold level there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations leading to chaotic dynamics. Route to chaos is found to be period-doubling. Period halving bifurcations are also observed.

Hybrid Artificial Root Foraging Optimizer Based Multilevel Threshold for Image Segmentation

PubMed Central

Liu, Yang; Liu, Junfei

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a new plant-inspired optimization algorithm for multilevel threshold image segmentation, namely, hybrid artificial root foraging optimizer (HARFO), which essentially mimics the iterative root foraging behaviors. In this algorithm the new growth operators of branching, regrowing, and shrinkage are initially designed to optimize continuous space search by combining root-to-root communication and coevolution mechanism. With the auxin-regulated scheme, various root growth operators are guided systematically. With root-to-root communication, individuals exchange information in different efficient topologies, which essentially improve the exploration ability. With coevolution mechanism, the hierarchical spatial population driven by evolutionary pressure of multiple subpopulations is structured, which ensure that the diversity of root population is well maintained. The comparative results on a suit of benchmarks show the superiority of the proposed algorithm. Finally, the proposed HARFO algorithm is applied to handle the complex image segmentation problem based on multilevel threshold. Computational results of this approach on a set of tested images show the outperformance of the proposed algorithm in terms of optimization accuracy computation efficiency. PMID:27725826

Hybrid Artificial Root Foraging Optimizer Based Multilevel Threshold for Image Segmentation.

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Liu, Junfei; Tian, Liwei; Ma, Lianbo

2016-01-01

This paper proposes a new plant-inspired optimization algorithm for multilevel threshold image segmentation, namely, hybrid artificial root foraging optimizer (HARFO), which essentially mimics the iterative root foraging behaviors. In this algorithm the new growth operators of branching, regrowing, and shrinkage are initially designed to optimize continuous space search by combining root-to-root communication and coevolution mechanism. With the auxin-regulated scheme, various root growth operators are guided systematically. With root-to-root communication, individuals exchange information in different efficient topologies, which essentially improve the exploration ability. With coevolution mechanism, the hierarchical spatial population driven by evolutionary pressure of multiple subpopulations is structured, which ensure that the diversity of root population is well maintained. The comparative results on a suit of benchmarks show the superiority of the proposed algorithm. Finally, the proposed HARFO algorithm is applied to handle the complex image segmentation problem based on multilevel threshold. Computational results of this approach on a set of tested images show the outperformance of the proposed algorithm in terms of optimization accuracy computation efficiency.

Thermal thresholds as predictors of seed dormancy release and germination timing: altitude-related risks from climate warming for the wild grapevine Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris.

PubMed

Orrù, Martino; Mattana, Efisio; Pritchard, Hugh W; Bacchetta, Gianluigi

2012-12-01

The importance of thermal thresholds for predicting seed dormancy release and germination timing under the present climate conditions and simulated climate change scenarios was investigated. In particular, Vitis vinifera subsp. sylvestris was investigated in four Sardinian populations over the full altitudinal range of the species (from approx. 100 to 800 m a.s.l). Dried and fresh seeds from each population were incubated in the light at a range of temperatures (10-25 and 25/10 °C), without any pre-treatment and after a warm (3 months at 25 °C) or a cold (3 months at 5 °C) stratification. A thermal time approach was then applied to the germination results for dried seeds and the seed responses were modelled according to the present climate conditions and two simulated scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC): B1 (+1·8 °C) and A2 (+3·4 °C). Cold stratification released physiological dormancy, while very few seeds germinated without treatments or after warm stratification. Fresh, cold-stratified seeds germinated significantly better (>80 %) at temperatures ≥20 °C than at lower temperatures. A base temperature for germination (T(b)) of 9·0-11·3 °C and a thermal time requirement for 50 % of germination (θ(50)) ranging from 33·6 °Cd to 68·6 °Cd were identified for non-dormant cold-stratified seeds, depending on the populations. This complex combination of thermal requirements for dormancy release and germination allowed prediction of field emergence from March to May under the present climatic conditions for the investigated populations. The thermal thresholds for seed germination identified in this study (T(b) and θ(50)) explained the differences in seed germination detected among populations. Under the two simulated IPCC scenarios, an altitude-related risk from climate warming is identified, with lowland populations being more threatened due to a compromised seed dormancy release and a narrowed seed germination window.

Statin Selection in Qatar Based on Multi-indication Pharmacotherapeutic Multi-criteria Scoring Model, and Clinician Preference.

PubMed

Al-Badriyeh, Daoud; Fahey, Michael; Alabbadi, Ibrahim; Al-Khal, Abdullatif; Zaidan, Manal

2015-12-01

Statin selection for the largest hospital formulary in Qatar is not systematic, not comparative, and does not consider the multi-indication nature of statins. There are no reports in the literature of multi-indication-based comparative scoring models of statins or of statin selection criteria weights that are based primarily on local clinicians' preferences and experiences. This study sought to comparatively evaluate statins for first-line therapy in Qatar, and to quantify the economic impact of this. An evidence-based, multi-indication, multi-criteria pharmacotherapeutic model was developed for the scoring of statins from the perspective of the main health care provider in Qatar. The literature and an expert panel informed the selection criteria of statins. Relative weighting of selection criteria was based on the input of the relevant local clinician population. Statins were comparatively scored based on literature evidence, with those exceeding a defined scoring threshold being recommended for use. With 95% CI and 5% margin of error, the scoring model was successfully developed. Selection criteria comprised 28 subcriteria under the following main criteria: clinical efficacy, best publish evidence and experience, adverse effects, drug interaction, dosing time, and fixed dose combination availability. Outcome measures for multiple indications were related to effects on LDL cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, triglyceride, total cholesterol, and C-reactive protein. Atorvastatin, pravastatin, and rosuvastatin exceeded defined pharmacotherapeutic thresholds. Atorvastatin and pravastatin were recommended as first-line use and rosuvastatin as a nonformulary alternative. It was estimated that this would produce a 17.6% cost savings in statins expenditure. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the evaluation's outcomes against input uncertainties. Incorporating a comparative evaluation of statins in Qatari practices based on a locally developed, transparent, multi-indication, multi-criteria scoring model has the potential to considerably reduce expenditures on statins. Atorvastatin and pravastatin should be the first-line statin therapies in the main Qatari health care provider, with rosuvastatin as an alternative. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier HS Journals, Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis of a population-based screening program for colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Pil, L; Fobelets, M; Putman, K; Trybou, J; Annemans, L

2016-07-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the leading causes of cancer mortality in Belgium. In Flanders (Belgium), a population-based screening program with a biennial immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT) in women and men aged 56-74 has been organised since 2013. This study assessed the cost-effectiveness and budget impact of the colorectal population-based screening program in Flanders (Belgium). A health economic model was conducted, consisting of a decision tree simulating the screening process and a Markov model, with a time horizon of 20years, simulating natural progression. Predicted mortality and incidence, total costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) with and without the screening program were calculated in order to determine the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of CRC screening. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted, taking into account uncertainty of the model parameters. Mortality and incidence were predicted to decrease over 20years. The colorectal screening program in Flanders is found to be cost-effective with an ICER of 1681/QALY (95% CI -1317 to 6601) in males and €4,484/QALY (95% CI -3254 to 18,163). The probability of being cost-effective given a threshold of €35,000/QALY was 100% and 97.3%, respectively. The budget impact analysis showed the extra cost for the health care payer to be limited. This health economic analysis has shown that despite the possible adverse effects of screening and the extra costs for the health care payer and the patient, the population-based screening program for CRC in Flanders is cost-effective and should therefore be maintained. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Knowledge diffusion in complex networks by considering time-varying information channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, He; Ma, Jing

2018-03-01

In this article, based on a model of epidemic spreading, we explore the knowledge diffusion process with an innovative mechanism for complex networks by considering time-varying information channels. To cover the knowledge diffusion process in homogeneous and heterogeneous networks, two types of networks (the BA network and the ER network) are investigated. The mean-field theory is used to theoretically draw the knowledge diffusion threshold. Numerical simulation demonstrates that the knowledge diffusion threshold is almost linearly correlated with the mean of the activity rate. In addition, under the influence of the activity rate and distinct from the classic Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model, the density of knowers almost linearly grows with the spreading rate. Finally, in consideration of the ubiquitous mechanism of innovation, we further study the evolution of knowledge in our proposed model. The results suggest that compared with the effect of the spreading rate, the average knowledge version of the population is affected more by the innovation parameter and the mean of the activity rate. Furthermore, in the BA network, the average knowledge version of individuals with higher degree is always newer than those with lower degree.

Easy-interactive and quick psoriasis lesion segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Guoli; He, Bei; Yang, Wenming; Shu, Chang

2013-12-01

This paper proposes an interactive psoriasis lesion segmentation algorithm based on Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). Psoriasis is an incurable skin disease and affects large population in the world. PASI (Psoriasis Area and Severity Index) is the gold standard utilized by dermatologists to monitor the severity of psoriasis. Computer aid methods of calculating PASI are more objective and accurate than human visual assessment. Psoriasis lesion segmentation is the basis of the whole calculating. This segmentation is different from the common foreground/background segmentation problems. Our algorithm is inspired by GrabCut and consists of three main stages. First, skin area is extracted from the background scene by transforming the RGB values into the YCbCr color space. Second, a rough segmentation of normal skin and psoriasis lesion is given. This is an initial segmentation given by thresholding a single gaussian model and the thresholds are adjustable, which enables user interaction. Third, two GMMs, one for the initial normal skin and one for psoriasis lesion, are built to refine the segmentation. Experimental results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

A Computational Study of Phenotype Switching in Bacillus Subtilis Biofilm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Howard; Wang, Xiaoling; Jiang, Yi

Bacillus Subtilis (B. Subtilis), is known to differentiate into three main phenotypes during biofilm growth. Novel techniques to track the spatial and temporal evolution of the three main phenotypes exhibited by B. Subtilis have been developed. However, the techniques do not explain the environmental causes of the phenotype switching and how this leads to the spatiotemporal organization of the biofilm. We hypothesize that cells switch their phenotype according to nutrients and autoinducer levels. We test the hypothesis using a hybrid agent-based and continuous model. The bacteria in our model are individual cells that can (i) grow and divide by the intake of nutrients, (ii) produce and secrete EPS, (iii) form spores and (iv) produce an auto inducer. Using a threshold for nutrient and thresholds for autoinducers, we were able to reproduce the experimental spatiotemporal dynamics. From our simulations we observed that in order to reproduce experimental results, two different autoinducers were necessary. The results also suggest that low-EPS producing biofilms generally obtained higher cell populations. Furthermore, most of the cells that become spore forming cells arise from matrix producing cells.

Sustainable thresholds for cooperative epidemiological models.

PubMed

Barrios, Edwin; Gajardo, Pedro; Vasilieva, Olga

2018-05-22

In this paper, we introduce a method for computing sustainable thresholds for controlled cooperative models described by a system of ordinary differential equations, a property shared by a wide class of compartmental models in epidemiology. The set of sustainable thresholds refers to constraints (e.g., maximal "allowable" number of human infections; maximal "affordable" budget for disease prevention, diagnosis and treatments; etc.), parameterized by thresholds, that can be sustained by applying an admissible control strategy starting at the given initial state and lasting the whole period of the control intervention. This set, determined by the initial state of the dynamical system, virtually provides useful information for more efficient (or cost-effective) decision-making by exhibiting the trade-offs between different types of constraints and allowing the user to assess future outcomes of control measures on transient behavior of the dynamical system. In order to accentuate the originality of our approach and to reveal its potential significance in real-life applications, we present an example relying on the 2013 dengue outbreak in Cali, Colombia, where we compute the set of sustainable thresholds (in terms of the maximal "affordable" budget and the maximal "allowable" levels of active infections among human and vector populations) that could be sustained during the epidemic outbreak. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Projections for Achieving the Lancet Commission Recommended Surgical Rate of 5000 Operations per 100,000 Population by Region-Specific Surgical Rate Estimates.

PubMed

Uribe-Leitz, Tarsicio; Esquivel, Micaela M; Molina, George; Lipsitz, Stuart R; Verguet, Stéphane; Rose, John; Bickler, Stephen W; Gawande, Atul A; Haynes, Alex B; Weiser, Thomas G

2015-09-01

We previously identified a range of 4344-5028 annual operations per 100,000 people to be related to desirable health outcomes. From this and other evidence, the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery recommends a minimum rate of 5000 operations per 100,000 people. We evaluate rates of growth and estimate the time it will take to reach this minimum surgical rate threshold. We aggregated country-level surgical rate estimates from 2004 to 2012 into the twenty-one Global Burden of Disease (GBD) regions. We calculated mean rates of surgery proportional to population size for each year and assessed the rate of growth over time. We then extrapolated the time it will take each region to reach a surgical rate of 5000 operations per 100,000 population based on linear rates of change. All but two regions experienced growth in their surgical rates during the past 8 years. Fourteen regions did not meet the recommended threshold in 2012. If surgical capacity continues to grow at current rates, seven regions will not meet the threshold by 2035. Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa will not reach the recommended threshold until 2124. The rates of growth in surgical service delivery are exceedingly variable. At current rates of surgical and population growth, 6.2 billion people (73% of the world's population) will be living in countries below the minimum recommended rate of surgical care in 2035. A strategy for strengthening surgical capacity is essential if these targets are to be met in a timely fashion as part of the integrated health system development.

How sensitivity to ongoing interaural temporal disparities is affected by manipulations of temporal features of the envelopes of high-frequency stimuli

PubMed Central

Bernstein, Leslie R.; Trahiotis, Constantine

2009-01-01

This study addressed how manipulating certain aspects of the envelopes of high-frequency stimuli affects sensitivity to envelope-based interaural temporal disparities (ITDs). Listener’s threshold ITDs were measured using an adaptive two-alternative paradigm employing “raised-sine” stimuli [John, M. S., et al. (2002). Ear Hear. 23, 106–117] which permit independent variation in their modulation frequency, modulation depth, and modulation exponent. Threshold ITDs were measured while manipulating modulation exponent for stimuli having modulation frequencies between 32 and 256 Hz. The results indicated that graded increases in the exponent led to graded decreases in envelope-based threshold ITDs. Threshold ITDs were also measured while parametrically varying modulation exponent and modulation depth. Overall, threshold ITDs decreased with increases in the modulation depth. Unexpectedly, increases in the exponent of the raised-sine led to especially large decreases in threshold ITD when the modulation depth was low. An interaural correlation-based model was generally able to capture changes in threshold ITD stemming from changes in the exponent, depth of modulation, and frequency of modulation of the raised-sine stimuli. The model (and several variations of it), however, could not account for the unexpected interaction between the value of raised-sine exponent and its modulation depth. PMID:19425666

From theoretical fixed return period events to real flooding impacts: a new approach to set flooding scenarios, thresholds and alerts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parravicini, Paola; Cislaghi, Matteo; Condemi, Leonardo

2017-04-01

ARPA Lombardia is the Environmental Protection Agency of Lombardy, a wide region in the North of Italy. ARPA is in charge of river monitoring either for Civil Protection or water balance purposes. It cooperates with the Civil Protection Agency of Lombardy (RL-PC) in flood forecasting and early warning. The early warning system is based on rainfall and discharge thresholds: when a threshold exceeding is expected, RL-PC disseminates an alert from yellow to red. The conventional threshold evaluation is based on events at a fixed return period. Anyway, the impacts of events with the same return period may be different along the river course due to the specific characteristics of the affected areas. A new approach is introduced. It defines different scenarios, corresponding to different flood impacts. A discharge threshold is then associated to each scenario and the return period of the scenario is computed backwards. Flood scenarios are defined in accordance with National Civil Protection guidelines, which describe the expected flood impact and associate a colour to the scenario from green (no relevant effects) to red (major floods). A range of discharges is associated with each scenario since they cause the same flood impact; the threshold is set as the discharge corresponding to the transition between two scenarios. A wide range of event-based information is used to estimate the thresholds. As first guess, the thresholds are estimated starting from hydraulic model outputs and the people or infrastructures flooded according to the simulations. Eventually the model estimates are validated with real event knowledge: local Civil Protection Emergency Plans usually contain very detailed local impact description at known river levels or discharges, RL-PC collects flooding information notified by the population, newspapers often report flood events on web, data from the river monitoring network provide evaluation of actually happened levels and discharges. The methodology allows to give a return period for each scenario. The return period may vary along the river course according to the discharges associated with the scenario. The values of return period may show the areas characterized by higher risk and can be an important basis for civil protection emergency planning and river monitoring. For example, considering the Lambro River, the red scenario (major flood) shows a return period of 50 years in the northern rural part of the catchment. When the river crosses the city of Milan, the return period drops to 4 years. Afterwards it goes up to more than 100 years when the river flows in the agricultural areas in the southern part of the catchment. In addition, the knowledge gained with event-based analysis allows evaluating the compliance of the monitoring network with early warning requirements and represents the starting point for further development of the network itself.

Simplified risk assessment of noise induced hearing loss by means of 2 spreadsheet models.

PubMed

Lie, Arve; Engdahl, Bo; Tambs, Kristian

2016-11-18

The objective of this study has been to test 2 spreadsheet models to compare the observed with the expected hearing loss for a Norwegian reference population. The prevalence rates of the Norwegian and the National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) definitions of hearing outcomes were calculated in terms of sex and age, 20-64 years old, for a screened (with no occupational noise exposure) (N = 18 858) and unscreened (N = 38 333) Norwegian reference population from the Nord-Trøndelag Hearing Loss Study (NTHLS). Based on the prevalence rates, 2 different spreadsheet models were constructed in order to compare the prevalence rates of various groups of workers with the expected rates. The spreadsheets were then tested on 10 different occupational groups with varying degrees of hearing loss as compared to a reference population. Hearing of office workers, train drivers, conductors and teachers differed little from the screened reference values based on the Norwegian and the NIOSH criterion. The construction workers, miners, farmers and military had an impaired hearing and railway maintenance workers and bus drivers had a mildly impaired hearing. The spreadsheet models give a valid assessment of the hearing loss. The use of spreadsheet models to compare hearing in occupational groups with that of a reference population is a simple and quick method. The results are in line with comparable hearing thresholds, and allow for significance testing. The method is believed to be useful for occupational health services in the assessment of risk of noise induced hearing loss (NIHL) and the preventive potential in groups of noise-exposed workers. Int J Occup Med Environ Health 2016;29(6):991-999. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

Evaluation of automated threshold selection methods for accurately sizing microscopic fluorescent cells by image analysis.

PubMed Central

Sieracki, M E; Reichenbach, S E; Webb, K L

1989-01-01

The accurate measurement of bacterial and protistan cell biomass is necessary for understanding their population and trophic dynamics in nature. Direct measurement of fluorescently stained cells is often the method of choice. The tedium of making such measurements visually on the large numbers of cells required has prompted the use of automatic image analysis for this purpose. Accurate measurements by image analysis require an accurate, reliable method of segmenting the image, that is, distinguishing the brightly fluorescing cells from a dark background. This is commonly done by visually choosing a threshold intensity value which most closely coincides with the outline of the cells as perceived by the operator. Ideally, an automated method based on the cell image characteristics should be used. Since the optical nature of edges in images of light-emitting, microscopic fluorescent objects is different from that of images generated by transmitted or reflected light, it seemed that automatic segmentation of such images may require special considerations. We tested nine automated threshold selection methods using standard fluorescent microspheres ranging in size and fluorescence intensity and fluorochrome-stained samples of cells from cultures of cyanobacteria, flagellates, and ciliates. The methods included several variations based on the maximum intensity gradient of the sphere profile (first derivative), the minimum in the second derivative of the sphere profile, the minimum of the image histogram, and the midpoint intensity. Our results indicated that thresholds determined visually and by first-derivative methods tended to overestimate the threshold, causing an underestimation of microsphere size. The method based on the minimum of the second derivative of the profile yielded the most accurate area estimates for spheres of different sizes and brightnesses and for four of the five cell types tested. A simple model of the optical properties of fluorescing objects and the video acquisition system is described which explains how the second derivative best approximates the position of the edge. Images PMID:2516431

Evolutionary dynamics of collective index insurance.

PubMed

Pacheco, Jorge M; Santos, Francisco C; Levin, Simon A

2016-03-01

Index-based insurances offer promising opportunities for climate-risk investments in developing countries. Indeed, contracts conditional on, e.g., weather or livestock indexes can be cheaper to set up than conventional indemnity-based insurances, while offering a safety net to vulnerable households, allowing them to eventually escape poverty traps. Moreover, transaction costs by insurance companies may be additionally reduced if contracts, instead of arranged with single households, are endorsed by collectives of households that bear the responsibility of managing the division of the insurance coverage by its members whenever the index is surpassed, allowing for additional flexibility in what concerns risk-sharing and also allowing insurance companies to avoid the costs associated with moral hazard. Here we resort to a population dynamics framework to investigate under which conditions household collectives may find collective index insurances attractive, when compared with individual index insurances. We assume risk sharing among the participants of each collective, and model collective action in terms of an N-person threshold game. Compared to less affordable individual index insurances, we show how collective index insurances lead to a coordination problem in which the adoption of index insurances may become the optimal decision, spreading index insurance coverage to the entire population. We further investigate the role of risk-averse and risk-prone behaviors, as well as the role of partial correlation between insurance coverage and actual loss of crops, and in which way these affect the original coordination thresholds.

Modelling effects of diquat under realistic exposure patterns in genetically differentiated populations of the gastropod Lymnaea stagnalis

PubMed Central

Ducrot, Virginie; Péry, Alexandre R. R.; Lagadic, Laurent

2010-01-01

Pesticide use leads to complex exposure and response patterns in non-target aquatic species, so that the analysis of data from standard toxicity tests may result in unrealistic risk forecasts. Developing models that are able to capture such complexity from toxicity test data is thus a crucial issue for pesticide risk assessment. In this study, freshwater snails from two genetically differentiated populations of Lymnaea stagnalis were exposed to repeated acute applications of environmentally realistic concentrations of the herbicide diquat, from the embryo to the adult stage. Hatching rate, embryonic development duration, juvenile mortality, feeding rate and age at first spawning were investigated during both exposure and recovery periods. Effects of diquat on mortality were analysed using a threshold hazard model accounting for time-varying herbicide concentrations. All endpoints were significantly impaired at diquat environmental concentrations in both populations. Snail evolutionary history had no significant impact on their sensitivity and responsiveness to diquat, whereas food acted as a modulating factor of toxicant-induced mortality. The time course of effects was adequately described by the model, which thus appears suitable to analyse long-term effects of complex exposure patterns based upon full life cycle experiment data. Obtained model outputs (e.g. no-effect concentrations) could be directly used for chemical risk assessment. PMID:20921047

Modelling effects of diquat under realistic exposure patterns in genetically differentiated populations of the gastropod Lymnaea stagnalis.

PubMed

Ducrot, Virginie; Péry, Alexandre R R; Lagadic, Laurent

2010-11-12

Pesticide use leads to complex exposure and response patterns in non-target aquatic species, so that the analysis of data from standard toxicity tests may result in unrealistic risk forecasts. Developing models that are able to capture such complexity from toxicity test data is thus a crucial issue for pesticide risk assessment. In this study, freshwater snails from two genetically differentiated populations of Lymnaea stagnalis were exposed to repeated acute applications of environmentally realistic concentrations of the herbicide diquat, from the embryo to the adult stage. Hatching rate, embryonic development duration, juvenile mortality, feeding rate and age at first spawning were investigated during both exposure and recovery periods. Effects of diquat on mortality were analysed using a threshold hazard model accounting for time-varying herbicide concentrations. All endpoints were significantly impaired at diquat environmental concentrations in both populations. Snail evolutionary history had no significant impact on their sensitivity and responsiveness to diquat, whereas food acted as a modulating factor of toxicant-induced mortality. The time course of effects was adequately described by the model, which thus appears suitable to analyse long-term effects of complex exposure patterns based upon full life cycle experiment data. Obtained model outputs (e.g. no-effect concentrations) could be directly used for chemical risk assessment.

Comparison of Prediction Models for Lynch Syndrome Among Individuals With Colorectal Cancer

PubMed Central

Ojha, Rohit P.; Leenen, Celine; Alvero, Carmelita; Mercado, Rowena C.; Balmaña, Judith; Valenzuela, Irene; Balaguer, Francesc; Green, Roger; Lindor, Noralane M.; Thibodeau, Stephen N.; Newcomb, Polly; Win, Aung Ko; Jenkins, Mark; Buchanan, Daniel D.; Bertario, Lucio; Sala, Paola; Hampel, Heather; Syngal, Sapna; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

2016-01-01

Background: Recent guidelines recommend the Lynch Syndrome prediction models MMRPredict, MMRPro, and PREMM1,2,6 for the identification of MMR gene mutation carriers. We compared the predictive performance and clinical usefulness of these prediction models to identify mutation carriers. Methods: Pedigree data from CRC patients in 11 North American, European, and Australian cohorts (6 clinic- and 5 population-based sites) were used to calculate predicted probabilities of pathogenic MLH1, MSH2, or MSH6 gene mutations by each model and gene-specific predictions by MMRPro and PREMM1,2,6. We examined discrimination with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration with observed to expected (O/E) ratio, and clinical usefulness using decision curve analysis to select patients for further evaluation. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: Mutations were detected in 539 of 2304 (23%) individuals from the clinic-based cohorts (237 MLH1, 251 MSH2, 51 MSH6) and 150 of 3451 (4.4%) individuals from the population-based cohorts (47 MLH1, 71 MSH2, 32 MSH6). Discrimination was similar for clinic- and population-based cohorts: AUCs of 0.76 vs 0.77 for MMRPredict, 0.82 vs 0.85 for MMRPro, and 0.85 vs 0.88 for PREMM1,2,6. For clinic- and population-based cohorts, O/E deviated from 1 for MMRPredict (0.38 and 0.31, respectively) and MMRPro (0.62 and 0.36) but were more satisfactory for PREMM1,2,6 (1.0 and 0.70). MMRPro or PREMM1,2,6 predictions were clinically useful at thresholds of 5% or greater and in particular at greater than 15%. Conclusions: MMRPro and PREMM1,2,6 can well be used to select CRC patients from genetics clinics or population-based settings for tumor and/or germline testing at a 5% or higher risk. If no MMR deficiency is detected and risk exceeds 15%, we suggest considering additional genetic etiologies for the cause of cancer in the family. PMID:26582061

Dose conversion coefficients for monoenergetic electrons incident on a realistic human eye model with different lens cell populations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogueira, P.; Zankl, M.; Schlattl, H.; Vaz, P.

2011-11-01

The radiation-induced posterior subcapsular cataract has long been generally accepted to be a deterministic effect that does not occur at doses below a threshold of at least 2 Gy. Recent epidemiological studies indicate that the threshold for cataract induction may be much lower or that there may be no threshold at all. A thorough study of this subject requires more accurate dose estimates for the eye lens than those available in ICRP Publication 74. Eye lens absorbed dose per unit fluence conversion coefficients for electron irradiation were calculated using a geometrical model of the eye that takes into account different cell populations of the lens epithelium, together with the MCNPX Monte Carlo radiation transport code package. For the cell population most sensitive to ionizing radiation—the germinative cells—absorbed dose per unit fluence conversion coefficients were determined that are up to a factor of 4.8 higher than the mean eye lens absorbed dose conversion coefficients for electron energies below 2 MeV. Comparison of the results with previously published values for a slightly different eye model showed generally good agreement for all electron energies. Finally, the influence of individual anatomical variability was quantified by positioning the lens at various depths below the cornea. A depth difference of 2 mm between the shallowest and the deepest location of the germinative zone can lead to a difference between the resulting absorbed doses of up to nearly a factor of 5000 for electron energy of 0.7 MeV.

Dose conversion coefficients for monoenergetic electrons incident on a realistic human eye model with different lens cell populations.

PubMed

Nogueira, P; Zankl, M; Schlattl, H; Vaz, P

2011-11-07

The radiation-induced posterior subcapsular cataract has long been generally accepted to be a deterministic effect that does not occur at doses below a threshold of at least 2 Gy. Recent epidemiological studies indicate that the threshold for cataract induction may be much lower or that there may be no threshold at all. A thorough study of this subject requires more accurate dose estimates for the eye lens than those available in ICRP Publication 74. Eye lens absorbed dose per unit fluence conversion coefficients for electron irradiation were calculated using a geometrical model of the eye that takes into account different cell populations of the lens epithelium, together with the MCNPX Monte Carlo radiation transport code package. For the cell population most sensitive to ionizing radiation-the germinative cells-absorbed dose per unit fluence conversion coefficients were determined that are up to a factor of 4.8 higher than the mean eye lens absorbed dose conversion coefficients for electron energies below 2 MeV. Comparison of the results with previously published values for a slightly different eye model showed generally good agreement for all electron energies. Finally, the influence of individual anatomical variability was quantified by positioning the lens at various depths below the cornea. A depth difference of 2 mm between the shallowest and the deepest location of the germinative zone can lead to a difference between the resulting absorbed doses of up to nearly a factor of 5000 for electron energy of 0.7 MeV.

Population Dynamics and Temperature-Dependent Development of Chrysomphalus aonidum (L.) to Aid Sustainable Pest Management Decisions.

PubMed

Campolo, O; Malacrinò, A; Laudani, F; Maione, V; Zappalà, L; Palmeri, V

2014-10-01

The increasing worldwide trades progressively led to decreased impact of natural barriers on wild species movement. The exotic scale Chrysomphalus aonidum (L.) (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), recently reported on citrus in southern Italy, may represent a new threat to Mediterranean citriculture. We studied C. aonidum population dynamics under field conditions and documented its development under various temperatures. To enable describing temperature-dependent development through the use of linear and non-linear models, low temperature thresholds and thermal constants for each developmental stage were estimated. Chrysomphalus aonidum was able to perform four generations on green parts (leaves, sprouts) of citrus trees and three on fruits. In addition, an overall higher population density was observed on samples collected in the southern part of the tree canopy. Temperature had a significant effect on the developmental rate; female needed 625 degree days (DD) to complete its development, while male needed 833 DD. The low threshold temperatures, together with data from population dynamics, demonstrated that C. aonidum is able to overwinter as second instar and as an adult. The results obtained, validated by those collected in the field, revealed few differences between predicted and observed dates of first occurrence of each C. aonidum instar in citrus orchards. Data on C. aonidum phenology and the definition of the thermal parameters (lower and upper threshold temperatures, optimum temperature, and the thermal constant) by non-linear models could allow the estimation of the occurrence in the field of each life stage and would be helpful in developing effective integrated control strategies.

What to Do about Zero Frequency Cells when Estimating Polychoric Correlations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Savalei, Victoria

2011-01-01

Categorical structural equation modeling (SEM) methods that fit the model to estimated polychoric correlations have become popular in the social sciences. When population thresholds are high in absolute value, contingency tables in small samples are likely to contain zero frequency cells. Such cells make the estimation of the polychoric…

Five challenges for spatial epidemic models

PubMed Central

Riley, Steven; Eames, Ken; Isham, Valerie; Mollison, Denis; Trapman, Pieter

2015-01-01

Infectious disease incidence data are increasingly available at the level of the individual and include high-resolution spatial components. Therefore, we are now better able to challenge models that explicitly represent space. Here, we consider five topics within spatial disease dynamics: the construction of network models; characterising threshold behaviour; modelling long-distance interactions; the appropriate scale for interventions; and the representation of population heterogeneity. PMID:25843387

Differential Equation Models for Sharp Threshold Dynamics

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-01

dynamics, and the Lanchester model of armed conflict, where the loss of a key capability drastically changes dynamics. We derive and demonstrate a step...dynamics using differential equations. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Differential Equations, Markov Population Process, S-I-R Epidemic, Lanchester Model 16...infection, where a detection event drastically changes dynamics, and the Lanchester model of armed conflict, where the loss of a key capability

Sliding mode control of outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases.

PubMed

Xiao, Yanni; Xu, Xiaxia; Tang, Sanyi

2012-10-01

This paper proposes and analyzes a mathematical model of an infectious disease system with a piecewise control function concerning threshold policy for disease management strategy. The proposed models extend the classic models by including a piecewise incidence rate to represent control or precautionary measures being triggered once the number of infected individuals exceeds a threshold level. The long-term behaviour of the proposed non-smooth system under this strategy consists of the so-called sliding motion-a very rapid switching between application and interruption of the control action. Model solutions ultimately approach either one of two endemic states for two structures or the sliding equilibrium on the switching surface, depending on the threshold level. Our findings suggest that proper combinations of threshold densities and control intensities based on threshold policy can either preclude outbreaks or lead the number of infected to a previously chosen level.

Modeling of noise pollution and estimated human exposure around İstanbul Atatürk Airport in Turkey.

PubMed

Ozkurt, Nesimi; Sari, Deniz; Akdag, Ali; Kutukoglu, Murat; Gurarslan, Aliye

2014-06-01

The level of aircraft noise exposure around İstanbul Atatürk Airport was calculated according to the European Noise Directive. These calculations were based on the actual flight data for each flight in the year 2011. The study area was selected to cover of 25km radius centered on the Aerodrome Reference Point of the airport. The geographical data around İstanbul Atatürk Airport was used to prepare elevation, residential building, auxiliary building, hospital and school layers in SoundPlan software. It was found that 1.2% of the land area of İstanbul City exceeds the threshold of 55dB(A) during daytime. However, when the exceedance of threshold of 65dB(A)is investigated, the affected area is found quite small (0.2% of land area of city). About 0.3% of the land area of İstanbul City has noise levels exceeding 55dB(A) during night-time. Our results show that about 4% of the resident population was exposed to 55dB(A) or higher noises during daytime in İstanbul. When applying the second threshhold criteria, nearly 1% of the population is exposed to noise levels greater than 65dB(A). At night-time, 1.3% of the population is exposed to 55dB(A) or higher noise levels. © 2013.

Multipactor threshold calculation of coaxial transmission lines in microwave applications with nonstationary statistical theory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lin, S.; Li, Y.; Liu, C.

2015-08-15

This paper presents a statistical theory for the initial onset of multipactor breakdown in coaxial transmission lines, taking both the nonuniform electric field and random electron emission velocity into account. A general numerical method is first developed to construct the joint probability density function based on the approximate equation of the electron trajectory. The nonstationary dynamics of the multipactor process on both surfaces of coaxial lines are modelled based on the probability of various impacts and their corresponding secondary emission. The resonant assumption of the classical theory on the independent double-sided and single-sided impacts is replaced by the consideration ofmore » their interaction. As a result, the time evolutions of the electron population for exponential growth and absorption on both inner and outer conductor, in response to the applied voltage above and below the multipactor breakdown level, are obtained to investigate the exact mechanism of multipactor discharge in coaxial lines. Furthermore, the multipactor threshold predictions of the presented model are compared with experimental results using measured secondary emission yield of the tested samples which shows reasonable agreement. Finally, the detailed impact scenario reveals that single-surface multipactor is more likely to occur with a higher outer to inner conductor radius ratio.« less

Modeling environmental noise exceedances using non-homogeneous Poisson processes.

PubMed

Guarnaccia, Claudio; Quartieri, Joseph; Barrios, Juan M; Rodrigues, Eliane R

2014-10-01

In this work a non-homogeneous Poisson model is considered to study noise exposure. The Poisson process, counting the number of times that a sound level surpasses a threshold, is used to estimate the probability that a population is exposed to high levels of noise a certain number of times in a given time interval. The rate function of the Poisson process is assumed to be of a Weibull type. The presented model is applied to community noise data from Messina, Sicily (Italy). Four sets of data are used to estimate the parameters involved in the model. After the estimation and tuning are made, a way of estimating the probability that an environmental noise threshold is exceeded a certain number of times in a given time interval is presented. This estimation can be very useful in the study of noise exposure of a population and also to predict, given the current behavior of the data, the probability of occurrence of high levels of noise in the near future. One of the most important features of the model is that it implicitly takes into account different noise sources, which need to be treated separately when using usual models.

White-nose syndrome is likely to extirpate the endangered Indiana bat over large parts of its range

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Sanders-Reed, Carol A.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.; McKann, Patrick C.; Pruitt, Lori; King, R. Andrew; Runge, Michael C.; Russell, Robin E.

2013-01-01

White-nose syndrome, a novel fungal pathogen spreading quickly through cave-hibernating bat species in east and central North America, is responsible for killing millions of bats. We developed a stochastic, stage-based population model to forecast the population dynamics of the endangered Indiana bat (Myotis sodalis) subject to white-nose syndrome. Our population model explicitly incorporated environmentally imposed annual variability in survival and reproductive rates and demographic stochasticity in predictions of extinction. With observed rates of disease spread, >90% of wintering populations were predicted to experience white-nose syndrome within 20 years, causing the proportion of populations at the quasi-extinction threshold of less than 250 females to increase by 33.9% over 50 years. At the species’ lowest median population level, ca. year 2022, we predicted 13.7% of the initial population to remain, totaling 28,958 females (95% CI = 13,330; 92,335). By 2022, only 12 of the initial 52 wintering populations were expected to possess wintering populations of >250 females. If the species can acquire immunity to the disease, we predict 3.7% of wintering populations to be above 250 females after 50 years (year 2057) after a 69% decline in abundance (from 210,741 to 64,768 [95% CI = 49,386; 85,360] females). At the nadir of projections, we predicted regional quasi-extirpation of wintering populations in 2 of 4 Recovery Units while in a third region, where the species is currently most abundant, >95% of the wintering populations were predicted to be below 250 females. Our modeling suggests white-nose syndrome is capable of bringing about severe numerical reduction in population size and local and regional extirpation of the Indiana bat.

A combined learning algorithm for prostate segmentation on 3D CT images.

PubMed

Ma, Ling; Guo, Rongrong; Zhang, Guoyi; Schuster, David M; Fei, Baowei

2017-11-01

Segmentation of the prostate on CT images has many applications in the diagnosis and treatment of prostate cancer. Because of the low soft-tissue contrast on CT images, prostate segmentation is a challenging task. A learning-based segmentation method is proposed for the prostate on three-dimensional (3D) CT images. We combine population-based and patient-based learning methods for segmenting the prostate on CT images. Population data can provide useful information to guide the segmentation processing. Because of inter-patient variations, patient-specific information is particularly useful to improve the segmentation accuracy for an individual patient. In this study, we combine a population learning method and a patient-specific learning method to improve the robustness of prostate segmentation on CT images. We train a population model based on the data from a group of prostate patients. We also train a patient-specific model based on the data of the individual patient and incorporate the information as marked by the user interaction into the segmentation processing. We calculate the similarity between the two models to obtain applicable population and patient-specific knowledge to compute the likelihood of a pixel belonging to the prostate tissue. A new adaptive threshold method is developed to convert the likelihood image into a binary image of the prostate, and thus complete the segmentation of the gland on CT images. The proposed learning-based segmentation algorithm was validated using 3D CT volumes of 92 patients. All of the CT image volumes were manually segmented independently three times by two, clinically experienced radiologists and the manual segmentation results served as the gold standard for evaluation. The experimental results show that the segmentation method achieved a Dice similarity coefficient of 87.18 ± 2.99%, compared to the manual segmentation. By combining the population learning and patient-specific learning methods, the proposed method is effective for segmenting the prostate on 3D CT images. The prostate CT segmentation method can be used in various applications including volume measurement and treatment planning of the prostate. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Relationships between human population density and burned area at continental and global scales.

PubMed

Bistinas, Ioannis; Oom, Duarte; Sá, Ana C L; Harrison, Sandy P; Prentice, I Colin; Pereira, José M C

2013-01-01

We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning.

Relationships between Human Population Density and Burned Area at Continental and Global Scales

PubMed Central

Bistinas, Ioannis; Oom, Duarte; Sá, Ana C. L.; Harrison, Sandy P.; Prentice, I. Colin; Pereira, José M. C.

2013-01-01

We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning. PMID:24358108

Dynamics of a network-based SIS epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Chun-Hsien

2015-06-01

This paper studies the dynamics of a network-based SIS epidemic model with nonmonotone incidence rate. This type of nonlinear incidence can be used to describe the psychological effect of certain diseases spread in a contact network at high infective levels. We first find a threshold value for the transmission rate. This value completely determines the dynamics of the model and interestingly, the threshold is not dependent on the functional form of the nonlinear incidence rate. Furthermore, if the transmission rate is less than or equal to the threshold value, the disease will die out. Otherwise, it will be permanent. Numerical experiments are given to illustrate the theoretical results. We also consider the effect of the nonlinear incidence on the epidemic dynamics.

A novel growth mode of Physarum polycephalum during starvation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jonghyun; Oettmeier, Christina; Döbereiner, Hans-Günther

2018-06-01

Organisms are constantly looking to forage and respond to various environmental queues to maximize their chance of survival. This is reflected in the unicellular organism Physarum polycephalum, which is known to grow as an optimized network. Here, we describe a new growth pattern of Physarum mesoplasmodium, where sheet-like motile bodies termed ‘satellites’ are formed. This non-network pattern formation is induced only when nutrients are scarce, suggesting that it is a type of emergency response. Our goal is to construct a model to describe the behaviour of satellites based on negative chemotaxis. We conjecture a diffusion-based model which implements detection of a signal molecule above a threshold concentration. Then we calculate how far the satellites must travel until the concentration signal falls below the threshold. These calculated distances are in good agreement with the distances where satellites stop. Based on the Akaike weight analysis, our threshold model is at least 2.3 times more likely to be the better model than the others we have considered. Based on the model, we estimate the diffusion coefficient of this molecule, which corresponds to typical signalling molecules.

Operational Risk Measurement of Chinese Commercial Banks Based on Extreme Value Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Song, Jiashan; Li, Yong; Ji, Feng; Peng, Cheng

The financial institutions and supervision institutions have all agreed on strengthening the measurement and management of operational risks. This paper attempts to build a model on the loss of operational risks basing on Peak Over Threshold model, emphasizing on weighted least square, which improved Hill’s estimation method, while discussing the situation of small sample, and fix the sample threshold more objectively basing on the media-published data of primary banks loss on operational risk from 1994 to 2007.

Estimating economic thresholds for pest control: an alternative procedure.

PubMed

Ramirez, O A; Saunders, J L

1999-04-01

An alternative methodology to determine profit maximizing economic thresholds is developed and illustrated. An optimization problem based on the main biological and economic relations involved in determining a profit maximizing economic threshold is first advanced. From it, a more manageable model of 2 nonsimultaneous reduced-from equations is derived, which represents a simpler but conceptually and statistically sound alternative. The model recognizes that yields and pest control costs are a function of the economic threshold used. Higher (less strict) economic thresholds can result in lower yields and, therefore, a lower gross income from the sale of the product, but could also be less costly to maintain. The highest possible profits will be obtained by using the economic threshold that results in a maximum difference between gross income and pest control cost functions.

Cognitive and Neural Bases of Skilled Performance.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-10-04

advantage is that this method is not computationally demanding, and model -specific analyses such as high -precision source localization with realistic...and a two- < " high -threshold model satisfy theoretical and pragmatic independence. Discrimination and bias measures from these two models comparing...recognition memory of patients with dementing diseases, amnesics, and normal controls. We found the two- high -threshold model to be more sensitive Lloyd

Release from bats: genetic distance and sensoribehavioural regression in the Pacific field cricket, Teleogryllus oceanicus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fullard, James H.; Ter Hofstede, Hannah M.; Ratcliffe, John M.; Pollack, Gerald S.; Brigidi, Gian S.; Tinghitella, Robin M.; Zuk, Marlene

2010-01-01

The auditory thresholds of the AN2 interneuron and the behavioural thresholds of the anti-bat flight-steering responses that this cell evokes are less sensitive in female Pacific field crickets that live where bats have never existed (Moorea) compared with individuals subjected to intense levels of bat predation (Australia). In contrast, the sensitivity of the auditory interneuron, ON1 which participates in the processing of both social signals and bat calls, and the thresholds for flight orientation to a model of the calling song of male crickets show few differences between the two populations. Genetic analyses confirm that the two populations are significantly distinct, and we conclude that the absence of bats has caused partial regression in the nervous control of a defensive behaviour in this insect. This study represents the first examination of natural evolutionary regression in the neural basis of a behaviour along a selection gradient within a single species.

Threshold effect of habitat loss on bat richness in cerrado-forest landscapes.

PubMed

Muylaert, Renata L; Stevens, Richard D; Ribeiro, Milton C

2016-09-01

Understanding how animal groups respond to contemporary habitat loss and fragmentation is essential for development of strategies for species conservation. Until now, there has been no consensus about how landscape degradation affects the diversity and distribution of Neotropical bats. Some studies demonstrate population declines and species loss in impacted areas, although the magnitude and generality of these effects on bat community structure are unclear. Empirical fragmentation thresholds predict an accentuated drop in biodiversity, and species richness in particular, when less than 30% of the original amount of habitat in the landscape remains. In this study, we tested whether bat species richness demonstrates this threshold response, based on 48 sites distributed across 12 landscapes with 9-88% remaining forest in Brazilian cerrado-forest formations. We also examined the degree to which abundance was similarly affected within four different feeding guilds. The threshold value for richness, below which bat diversity declines precipitously, was estimated at 47% of remaining forest. To verify if the response of bat abundance to habitat loss differed among feeding guilds, we used a model selection approach based on Akaike's information criterion. Models accounted for the amount of riparian forest, semideciduous forest, cerrado, tree plantations, secondary forest, and the total amount of forest in the landscape. We demonstrate a nonlinear effect of the contribution of tree plantations to frugivores, and a positive effect of the amount of cerrado to nectarivores and animalivores, the groups that responded most to decreases in amount of forest. We suggest that bat assemblages in interior Atlantic Forest and cerrado regions of southeastern Brazil are impoverished, since we found lower richness and abundance of different groups in landscapes with lower amounts of forest. The relatively higher threshold value of 47% suggests that bat communities have a relatively lower resistance to habitat degradation than other animal groups. Accordingly, conservation and restoration strategies should focus on increasing the amount of native vegetation of landscapes so as to enhance species richness of bats. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Networks of conforming or nonconforming individuals tend to reach satisfactory decisions.

PubMed

Ramazi, Pouria; Riehl, James; Cao, Ming

2016-11-15

Binary decisions of agents coupled in networks can often be classified into two types: "coordination," where an agent takes an action if enough neighbors are using that action, as in the spread of social norms, innovations, and viral epidemics, and "anticoordination," where too many neighbors taking a particular action causes an agent to take the opposite action, as in traffic congestion, crowd dispersion, and division of labor. Both of these cases can be modeled using linear-threshold-based dynamics, and a fundamental question is whether the individuals in such networks are likely to reach decisions with which they are satisfied. We show that, in the coordination case, and perhaps more surprisingly, also in the anticoordination case, the agents will indeed always tend to reach satisfactory decisions, that is, the network will almost surely reach an equilibrium state. This holds for every network topology and every distribution of thresholds, for both asynchronous and partially synchronous decision-making updates. These results reveal that irregular network topology, population heterogeneity, and partial synchrony are not sufficient to cause cycles or nonconvergence in linear-threshold dynamics; rather, other factors such as imitation or the coexistence of coordinating and anticoordinating agents must play a role.

Evolution of plant–pollinator mutualisms in response to climate change

PubMed Central

Gilman, R Tucker; Fabina, Nicholas S; Abbott, Karen C; Rafferty, Nicole E

2012-01-01

Climate change has the potential to desynchronize the phenologies of interdependent species, with potentially catastrophic effects on mutualist populations. Phenologies can evolve, but the role of evolution in the response of mutualisms to climate change is poorly understood. We developed a model that explicitly considers both the evolution and the population dynamics of a plant–pollinator mutualism under climate change. How the populations evolve, and thus whether the populations and the mutualism persist, depends not only on the rate of climate change but also on the densities and phenologies of other species in the community. Abundant alternative mutualist partners with broad temporal distributions can make a mutualism more robust to climate change, while abundant alternative partners with narrow temporal distributions can make a mutualism less robust. How community composition and the rate of climate change affect the persistence of mutualisms is mediated by two-species Allee thresholds. Understanding these thresholds will help researchers to identify those mutualisms at highest risk owing to climate change. PMID:25568025

Clique of Functional Hubs Orchestrates Population Bursts in Developmentally Regulated Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Luccioli, Stefano; Ben-Jacob, Eshel; Barzilai, Ari; Bonifazi, Paolo; Torcini, Alessandro

2014-01-01

It has recently been discovered that single neuron stimulation can impact network dynamics in immature and adult neuronal circuits. Here we report a novel mechanism which can explain in neuronal circuits, at an early stage of development, the peculiar role played by a few specific neurons in promoting/arresting the population activity. For this purpose, we consider a standard neuronal network model, with short-term synaptic plasticity, whose population activity is characterized by bursting behavior. The addition of developmentally inspired constraints and correlations in the distribution of the neuronal connectivities and excitabilities leads to the emergence of functional hub neurons, whose stimulation/deletion is critical for the network activity. Functional hubs form a clique, where a precise sequential activation of the neurons is essential to ignite collective events without any need for a specific topological architecture. Unsupervised time-lagged firings of supra-threshold cells, in connection with coordinated entrainments of near-threshold neurons, are the key ingredients to orchestrate population activity. PMID:25255443

Predicting coral bleaching hotspots: the role of regional variability in thermal stress and potential adaptation rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Teneva, Lida; Karnauskas, Mandy; Logan, Cheryl A.; Bianucci, Laura; Currie, Jock C.; Kleypas, Joan A.

2012-03-01

Sea surface temperature fields (1870-2100) forced by CO2-induced climate change under the IPCC SRES A1B CO2 scenario, from three World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (WCRP CMIP3) models (CCSM3, CSIRO MK 3.5, and GFDL CM 2.1), were used to examine how coral sensitivity to thermal stress and rates of adaption affect global projections of coral-reef bleaching. The focus of this study was two-fold, to: (1) assess how the impact of Degree-Heating-Month (DHM) thermal stress threshold choice affects potential bleaching predictions and (2) examine the effect of hypothetical adaptation rates of corals to rising temperature. DHM values were estimated using a conventional threshold of 1°C and a variability-based threshold of 2σ above the climatological maximum Coral adaptation rates were simulated as a function of historical 100-year exposure to maximum annual SSTs with a dynamic rather than static climatological maximum based on the previous 100 years, for a given reef cell. Within CCSM3 simulations, the 1°C threshold predicted later onset of mild bleaching every 5 years for the fraction of reef grid cells where 1°C > 2σ of the climatology time series of annual SST maxima (1961-1990). Alternatively, DHM values using both thresholds, with CSIRO MK 3.5 and GFDL CM 2.1 SSTs, did not produce drastically different onset timing for bleaching every 5 years. Across models, DHMs based on 1°C thermal stress threshold show the most threatened reefs by 2100 could be in the Central and Western Equatorial Pacific, whereas use of the variability-based threshold for DHMs yields the Coral Triangle and parts of Micronesia and Melanesia as bleaching hotspots. Simulations that allow corals to adapt to increases in maximum SST drastically reduce the rates of bleaching. These findings highlight the importance of considering the thermal stress threshold in DHM estimates as well as potential adaptation models in future coral bleaching projections.

Scaling of Precipitation Extremes Modelled by Generalized Pareto Distribution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajulapati, C. R.; Mujumdar, P. P.

2017-12-01

Precipitation extremes are often modelled with data from annual maximum series or peaks over threshold series. The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) is commonly used to fit the peaks over threshold series. Scaling of precipitation extremes from larger time scales to smaller time scales when the extremes are modelled with the GPD is burdened with difficulties arising from varying thresholds for different durations. In this study, the scale invariance theory is used to develop a disaggregation model for precipitation extremes exceeding specified thresholds. A scaling relationship is developed for a range of thresholds obtained from a set of quantiles of non-zero precipitation of different durations. The GPD parameters and exceedance rate parameters are modelled by the Bayesian approach and the uncertainty in scaling exponent is quantified. A quantile based modification in the scaling relationship is proposed for obtaining the varying thresholds and exceedance rate parameters for shorter durations. The disaggregation model is applied to precipitation datasets of Berlin City, Germany and Bangalore City, India. From both the applications, it is observed that the uncertainty in the scaling exponent has a considerable effect on uncertainty in scaled parameters and return levels of shorter durations.

Evaluating an Action Threshold-Based Insecticide Program on Onion Cultivars Varying in Resistance to Onion Thrips (Thysanoptera: Thripidae).

PubMed

Nault, Brian A; Huseth, Anders S

2016-08-01

Onion thrips, Thrips tabaci Lindeman (Thysanoptera: Thripidae), is a highly destructive pest of onion, Allium cepa L., and its management relies on multiple applications of foliar insecticides. Development of insecticide resistance is common in T. tabaci populations, and new strategies are needed to relax existing levels of insecticide use, but still provide protection against T. tabaci without compromising marketable onion yield. An action threshold-based insecticide program combined with or without a thrips-resistant onion cultivar was investigated as an improved approach for managing T. tabaci infestations in commercial onion fields. Regardless of cultivar type, the average number of insecticide applications needed to manage T. tabaci infestations in the action-threshold based program was 4.3, while the average number of sprays in the standard weekly program was 7.2 (a 40% reduction). The mean percent reduction in numbers of applications following the action threshold treatment in the thrips-resistant onion cultivar, 'Advantage', was 46.7% (range 40-50%) compared with the standard program, whereas the percentage reduction in applications in action threshold treatments in the thrips-susceptible onion cultivar, 'Santana', was 34.3% (range 13-50%) compared with the standard program, suggesting a benefit of the thrips-resistant cultivar. Marketable bulb yields for both 'Advantage' and 'Santana' in the action threshold-based program were nearly identical to those in the standard program, indicating that commercially acceptable bulb yields will be generated with fewer insecticide sprays following an action threshold-based program, saving money, time and benefiting the environment. © The Authors 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Transient dynamics of NbOx threshold switches explained by Poole-Frenkel based thermal feedback mechanism

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Ziwen; Kumar, Suhas; Nishi, Yoshio; Wong, H.-S. Philip

2018-05-01

Niobium oxide (NbOx) two-terminal threshold switches are potential candidates as selector devices in crossbar memory arrays and as building blocks for neuromorphic systems. However, the physical mechanism of NbOx threshold switches is still under debate. In this paper, we show that a thermal feedback mechanism based on Poole-Frenkel conduction can explain both the quasi-static and the transient electrical characteristics that are experimentally observed for NbOx threshold switches, providing strong support for the validity of this mechanism. Furthermore, a clear picture of the transient dynamics during the thermal-feedback-induced threshold switching is presented, providing useful insights required to model nonlinear devices where thermal feedback is important.

Quantifying aggregated uncertainty in Plasmodium falciparum malaria prevalence and populations at risk via efficient space-time geostatistical joint simulation.

PubMed

Gething, Peter W; Patil, Anand P; Hay, Simon I

2010-04-01

Risk maps estimating the spatial distribution of infectious diseases are required to guide public health policy from local to global scales. The advent of model-based geostatistics (MBG) has allowed these maps to be generated in a formal statistical framework, providing robust metrics of map uncertainty that enhances their utility for decision-makers. In many settings, decision-makers require spatially aggregated measures over large regions such as the mean prevalence within a country or administrative region, or national populations living under different levels of risk. Existing MBG mapping approaches provide suitable metrics of local uncertainty--the fidelity of predictions at each mapped pixel--but have not been adapted for measuring uncertainty over large areas, due largely to a series of fundamental computational constraints. Here the authors present a new efficient approximating algorithm that can generate for the first time the necessary joint simulation of prevalence values across the very large prediction spaces needed for global scale mapping. This new approach is implemented in conjunction with an established model for P. falciparum allowing robust estimates of mean prevalence at any specified level of spatial aggregation. The model is used to provide estimates of national populations at risk under three policy-relevant prevalence thresholds, along with accompanying model-based measures of uncertainty. By overcoming previously unchallenged computational barriers, this study illustrates how MBG approaches, already at the forefront of infectious disease mapping, can be extended to provide large-scale aggregate measures appropriate for decision-makers.

Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.; Pleasants, John M.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Taylor, Orley R.

2016-01-01

The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

Characterizing Decision-Analysis Performances of Risk Prediction Models Using ADAPT Curves.

PubMed

Lee, Wen-Chung; Wu, Yun-Chun

2016-01-01

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve is a widely used index to characterize the performance of diagnostic tests and prediction models. However, the index does not explicitly acknowledge the utilities of risk predictions. Moreover, for most clinical settings, what counts is whether a prediction model can guide therapeutic decisions in a way that improves patient outcomes, rather than to simply update probabilities.Based on decision theory, the authors propose an alternative index, the "average deviation about the probability threshold" (ADAPT).An ADAPT curve (a plot of ADAPT value against the probability threshold) neatly characterizes the decision-analysis performances of a risk prediction model.Several prediction models can be compared for their ADAPT values at a chosen probability threshold, for a range of plausible threshold values, or for the whole ADAPT curves. This should greatly facilitate the selection of diagnostic tests and prediction models.

Point estimation following two-stage adaptive threshold enrichment clinical trials.

PubMed

Kimani, Peter K; Todd, Susan; Renfro, Lindsay A; Stallard, Nigel

2018-05-31

Recently, several study designs incorporating treatment effect assessment in biomarker-based subpopulations have been proposed. Most statistical methodologies for such designs focus on the control of type I error rate and power. In this paper, we have developed point estimators for clinical trials that use the two-stage adaptive enrichment threshold design. The design consists of two stages, where in stage 1, patients are recruited in the full population. Stage 1 outcome data are then used to perform interim analysis to decide whether the trial continues to stage 2 with the full population or a subpopulation. The subpopulation is defined based on one of the candidate threshold values of a numerical predictive biomarker. To estimate treatment effect in the selected subpopulation, we have derived unbiased estimators, shrinkage estimators, and estimators that estimate bias and subtract it from the naive estimate. We have recommended one of the unbiased estimators. However, since none of the estimators dominated in all simulation scenarios based on both bias and mean squared error, an alternative strategy would be to use a hybrid estimator where the estimator used depends on the subpopulation selected. This would require a simulation study of plausible scenarios before the trial. © 2018 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparison between maximum radial expansion of ultrasound contrast agents and experimental postexcitation signal results.

PubMed

King, Daniel A; O'Brien, William D

2011-01-01

Experimental postexcitation signal data of collapsing Definity microbubbles are compared with the Marmottant theoretical model for large amplitude oscillations of ultrasound contrast agents (UCAs). After taking into account the insonifying pulse characteristics and size distribution of the population of UCAs, a good comparison between simulated results and previously measured experimental data is obtained by determining a threshold maximum radial expansion (Rmax) to indicate the onset of postexcitation. This threshold Rmax is found to range from 3.4 to 8.0 times the initial bubble radius, R0, depending on insonification frequency. These values are well above the typical free bubble inertial cavitation threshold commonly chosen at 2R0. The close agreement between the experiment and models suggests that lipid-shelled UCAs behave as unshelled bubbles during most of a large amplitude cavitation cycle, as proposed in the Marmottant equation.

Random Dopant Induced Threshold Voltage Lowering and Fluctuations in Sub-0.1 (micron)meter MOSFET's: A 3-D 'Atomistic' Simulation Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Asenov, Asen

1998-01-01

A three-dimensional (3-D) "atomistic" simulation study of random dopant induced threshold voltage lowering and fluctuations in sub-0.1 microns MOSFET's is presented. For the first time a systematic analysis of random dopant effects down to an individual dopant level was carried out in 3-D on a scale sufficient to provide quantitative statistical predictions. Efficient algorithms based on a single multigrid solution of the Poisson equation followed by the solution of a simplified current continuity equation are used in the simulations. The effects of various MOSFET design parameters, including the channel length and width, oxide thickness and channel doping, on the threshold voltage lowering and fluctuations are studied using typical samples of 200 atomistically different MOSFET's. The atomistic results for the threshold voltage fluctuations were compared with two analytical models based on dopant number fluctuations. Although the analytical models predict the general trends in the threshold voltage fluctuations, they fail to describe quantitatively the magnitude of the fluctuations. The distribution of the atomistically calculated threshold voltage and its correlation with the number of dopants in the channel of the MOSFET's was analyzed based on a sample of 2500 microscopically different devices. The detailed analysis shows that the threshold voltage fluctuations are determined not only by the fluctuation in the dopant number, but also in the dopant position.

Cost effectiveness of long-acting risperidone in Sweden.

PubMed

Hensen, Marja; Heeg, Bart; Löthgren, Mickael; van Hout, Ben

2010-01-01

In Sweden, risperidone long-acting injectable (RLAI) is generally used in a population of schizophrenia patients who are at a high risk of being non-compliant. However, RLAI might also be suitable for use in the general schizophrenia population. To analyse the clinical and economic effects of RLAI in the Swedish treatment practice using a discrete-event simulation (DES) model. Treatment outcomes and direct costs were analysed for both the high-risk non-compliant patient population and the general schizophrenia population. An existing DES model was adapted to simulate the treatment of schizophrenia in Sweden. Model inputs were based on literature research and supplemented with expert opinion. In the high-risk non-compliant schizophrenia population, RLAI was compared with haloperidol LAI. The analysis was built upon differences in symptom reduction, time between relapses, compliance and adverse effect profile between the two drugs. Main outcomes were the predicted incremental (discounted) costs (€) and effects (QALYs). In the general schizophrenia population, RLAI was compared with oral olanzapine. This analysis was built upon differences in compliance and adverse effects between the drugs. Multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were carried out to assess the sensitivity of the results of the two analyses. In the high-risk non-compliant patient population, RLAI was predicted to generate 0.103 QALYs per patient over 3 years while realizing cost savings of €5013 (year 2007 values) compared with haloperidol LAI. The main driver of the cost effectiveness of RLAI was the difference in Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) reduction between the two drugs, followed by the difference in adverse effects. The PSA showed that, in this setting, RLAI had a probability of 100% of being cost effective at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of €43,300 per QALY gained, compared with haloperidol LAI. The probability that RLAI combines additional effectiveness with cost savings compared with haloperidol LAI was estimated at 94%. When analysing RLAI in the general schizophrenia population, it was predicted to generate 0.043 QALYs and save €239 per patient over 5 years compared with olanzapine. Compliance was the main driver of the cost effectiveness of RLAI in this scenario. In the PSA it was shown that RLAI had a probability of 78% of being cost effective at a WTP threshold of €43,300 per QALY gained, compared with olanzapine. The estimated probability that RLAI combines additional effectiveness with cost savings was 50% and the probability that RLAI is less effective and more costly than olanzapine was negligible (0.2%). Treatment with RLAI is suggested to result in improved QALYs combined with cost savings compared with haloperidol LAI among the Swedish, high-risk non-compliant schizophrenia patient population. In the general schizophrenia population, RLAI also resulted in positive incremental QALYs and cost savings, when compared with olanzapine. However, the estimates used in the model for compliance and symptom reduction need further validation through naturalistic-based studies with reasonable follow-up to more definitely establish the real-life differences between RLAI and the comparators in the considered patient populations and to further reduce the uncertainty of these parameters.

Strategy Guideline: Modeling Enclosure Design in Above-Grade Walls

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lstiburek, J.; Ueno, K.; Musunuru, S.

2016-02-24

The Strategy Guideline describes how to model and interpret results of models for above grade walls. The Measure Guideline analyzes the failure thresholds and criteria for above grade walls. A library of above-grade walls with historically successful performance was used to calibrate WUFI (Warme Und Feuchte Instationar) software models. The information is generalized for application to a broad population of houses within the limits of existing experience.

A synthesis of thresholds for focal species along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts: A review of research and applications

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powell, Emily J.; Tyrrell, Megan C.; Milliken, Andrew; Tirpak, John M.; Staudinger, Michelle D.

2017-01-01

The impacts from climate change are increasing the possibility of vulnerable coastal species and habitats crossing critical thresholds that could spur rapid and possibly irreversible changes. For species of high conservation concern, improved knowledge of quantitative thresholds could greatly improve management. To meet this need, we synthesized information pertaining to biological responses as tipping points to sea level rise (SLR) and coastal storms for 45 fish, wildlife, and plant species along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts and Caribbean through a literature review and expert elicitation. Although these species were selected based on their ecological, economic, and cultural importance, just over half (56%, n = 25) have quantitative threshold data currently available that can be used to assess the effects of SLR and storms during some aspect of their life history. Birds, reptiles, and plants represent the best studied coastal species. Thirteen of the species (29%) are projected to lose at least 50% of their population or habitat (e.g., foraging, nesting, spawning, or resting habitat) in some areas with a 0.5 m or greater rise in sea levels by 2100. Two species (a bird and reptile) may gain habitat from projected SLR and be resilient to future impacts. Numeric thresholds were not available for the remaining 20 species we searched for. Coastal fishes, mammals, and amphibians were among the groups representing a major information gap in this field of research. In addition, quantitative threshold responses to coastal storms were scarce for all taxa. While vulnerability assessments and qualitative research related to the impacts of SLR and storms on coastal species and habitats are increasing, work that incorporates quantitative thresholds as response and impact metrics remains limited. Additional monitoring, modeling, and research that provides multiple quantitative thresholds across species' life stages and/or latitudinal gradients is ideal to support robust coastal management and decision-making across spatio-temporal scales in the face of climate change.

Poverty dynamics, poverty thresholds and mortality: An age-stage Markovian model

PubMed Central

Rehkopf, David; Tuljapurkar, Shripad; Horvitz, Carol C.

2018-01-01

Recent studies have examined the risk of poverty throughout the life course, but few have considered how transitioning in and out of poverty shape the dynamic heterogeneity and mortality disparities of a cohort at each age. Here we use state-by-age modeling to capture individual heterogeneity in crossing one of three different poverty thresholds (defined as 1×, 2× or 3× the “official” poverty threshold) at each age. We examine age-specific state structure, the remaining life expectancy, its variance, and cohort simulations for those above and below each threshold. Survival and transitioning probabilities are statistically estimated by regression analyses of data from the Health and Retirement Survey RAND data-set, and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Using the results of these regression analyses, we parameterize discrete state, discrete age matrix models. We found that individuals above all three thresholds have higher annual survival than those in poverty, especially for mid-ages to about age 80. The advantage is greatest when we classify individuals based on 1× the “official” poverty threshold. The greatest discrepancy in average remaining life expectancy and its variance between those above and in poverty occurs at mid-ages for all three thresholds. And fewer individuals are in poverty between ages 40-60 for all three thresholds. Our findings are consistent with results based on other data sets, but also suggest that dynamic heterogeneity in poverty and the transience of the poverty state is associated with income-related mortality disparities (less transience, especially of those above poverty, more disparities). This paper applies the approach of age-by-stage matrix models to human demography and individual poverty dynamics. In so doing we extend the literature on individual poverty dynamics across the life course. PMID:29768416

Individual wealth-based selection supports cooperation in spatial public goods games

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Xiaojie; Szolnoki, Attila

2016-09-01

In a social dilemma game group members are allowed to decide if they contribute to the joint venture or not. As a consequence, defectors, who do not invest but only enjoy the mutual benefit, prevail and the system evolves onto the tragedy of the common state. This unfortunate scenario can be avoided if participation is not obligatory but only happens with a given probability. But what if we also consider a player’s individual wealth when to decide about participation? To address this issue we propose a model in which the probabilistic participation in the public goods game is combined with a conditional investment mode that is based on individual wealth: if a player’s wealth exceeds a threshold value then it is qualified and can participate in the joint venture. Otherwise, the participation is forbidden in the investment interactions. We show that if only probabilistic participation is considered, spatially structured populations cannot support cooperation better than well-mixed populations where full defection state can also be avoided for small participation probabilities. By adding the wealth-based criterion of participation, however, structured populations are capable to augment network reciprocity relevantly and allow cooperator strategy to dominate in a broader parameter interval.

Cost effectiveness of mammography screening for Chinese women.

PubMed

Wong, Irene O L; Kuntz, Karen M; Cowling, Benjamin J; Lam, Cindy L K; Leung, Gabriel M

2007-08-15

Although the cost effectiveness of screening mammography in most western developed populations has been accepted, it may not apply to Chinese women, who have a much lower breast cancer incidence. The authors estimated the cost effectiveness of biennial mammography in Hong Kong Chinese women to inform evidence-based screening policies. For the current study, a state-transition Markov model was developed to simulate mammography screening, breast cancer diagnosis, and treatment in a hypothetical cohort of Chinese women. The benefit of mammography was modeled by assuming a stage shift, in which cancers in screened women were more likely to be diagnosed at an earlier disease stage. The authors compared costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) saved, and life years saved (LYS) for 5 screening strategies. Biennial screening resulted in a gain in life expectancy ranging from 4.3 days to 9.4 days compared with no screening at an incremental cost of from US $1,166 to US $2,425 per woman. The least costly, nondominated screening option was screening from ages 40 years to 69 years, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US $61,600 per QALY saved or US $64,400 per LYS compared with no screening. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, the probability of the ICER being below a threshold of US $50,000 per QALY (LYS) was 15.3% (14.6%). The current results suggested that mammography for Hong Kong Chinese women currently may not be cost effective based on the arbitrary threshold of US $50,000 per QALY. However, clinicians must remain vigilant and periodically should revisit the question of population screening: Disease rates in China have been increasing because of westernization and socioeconomic development.

Uncertainties in the Modelled CO2 Threshold for Antarctic Glaciation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gasson, E.; Lunt, D. J.; DeConto, R.; Goldner, A.; Heinemann, M.; Huber, M.; LeGrande, A. N.; Pollard, D.; Sagoo, N.; Siddall, M.;

A Cost-Utility Analysis of Prostate Cancer Screening in Australia.

PubMed

Keller, Andrew; Gericke, Christian; Whitty, Jennifer A; Yaxley, John; Kua, Boon; Coughlin, Geoff; Gianduzzo, Troy

2017-02-01

The Göteborg randomised population-based prostate cancer screening trial demonstrated that prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based screening reduces prostate cancer deaths compared with an age-matched control group. Utilising the prostate cancer detection rates from this study, we investigated the clinical and cost effectiveness of a similar PSA-based screening strategy for an Australian population of men aged 50-69 years. A decision model that incorporated Markov processes was developed from a health system perspective. The base-case scenario compared a population-based screening programme with current opportunistic screening practices. Costs, utility values, treatment patterns and background mortality rates were derived from Australian data. All costs were adjusted to reflect July 2015 Australian dollars (A$). An alternative scenario compared systematic with opportunistic screening but with optimisation of active surveillance (AS) uptake in both groups. A discount rate of 5 % for costs and benefits was utilised. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the effect of variable uncertainty on model outcomes. Our model very closely replicated the number of deaths from both prostate cancer and background mortality in the Göteborg study. The incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for PSA screening was A$147,528. However, for years of life gained (LYGs), PSA-based screening (A$45,890/LYG) appeared more favourable. Our alternative scenario with optimised AS improved cost utility to A$45,881/QALY, with screening becoming cost effective at a 92 % AS uptake rate. Both modelled scenarios were most sensitive to the utility of patients before and after intervention, and the discount rate used. PSA-based screening is not cost effective compared with Australia's assumed willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000/QALY. It appears more cost effective if LYGs are used as the relevant outcome, and is more cost effective than the established Australian breast cancer screening programme on this basis. Optimised utilisation of AS increases the cost effectiveness of prostate cancer screening dramatically.

Representing the acquisition and use of energy by individuals in agent-based models of animal populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sibly, Richard M.; Grimm, Volker; Martin, Benjamin T.; Johnston, Alice S.A.; Kulakowska, Katarzyna; Topping, Christopher J.; Calow, Peter; Nabe-Nielsen, Jacob; Thorbek, Pernille; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2013-01-01

1. Agent-based models (ABMs) are widely used to predict how populations respond to changing environments. As the availability of food varies in space and time, individuals should have their own energy budgets, but there is no consensus as to how these should be modelled. Here, we use knowledge of physiological ecology to identify major issues confronting the modeller and to make recommendations about how energy budgets for use in ABMs should be constructed. 2. Our proposal is that modelled animals forage as necessary to supply their energy needs for maintenance, growth and reproduction. If there is sufficient energy intake, an animal allocates the energy obtained in the order: maintenance, growth, reproduction, energy storage, until its energy stores reach an optimal level. If there is a shortfall, the priorities for maintenance and growth/reproduction remain the same until reserves fall to a critical threshold below which all are allocated to maintenance. Rates of ingestion and allocation depend on body mass and temperature. We make suggestions for how each of these processes should be modelled mathematically. 3. Mortality rates vary with body mass and temperature according to known relationships, and these can be used to obtain estimates of background mortality rate. 4. If parameter values cannot be obtained directly, then values may provisionally be obtained by parameter borrowing, pattern-oriented modelling, artificial evolution or from allometric equations. 5. The development of ABMs incorporating individual energy budgets is essential for realistic modelling of populations affected by food availability. Such ABMs are already being used to guide conservation planning of nature reserves and shell fisheries, to assess environmental impacts of building proposals including wind farms and highways and to assess the effects on nontarget organisms of chemicals for the control of agricultural pests.

Analysis of Critical Mass in Threshold Model of Diffusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jeehong; Hur, Wonchang; Kang, Suk-Ho

2012-04-01

Why does diffusion sometimes show cascade phenomena but at other times is impeded? In addressing this question, we considered a threshold model of diffusion, focusing on the formation of a critical mass, which enables diffusion to be self-sustaining. Performing an agent-based simulation, we found that the diffusion model produces only two outcomes: Almost perfect adoption or relatively few adoptions. In order to explain the difference, we considered the various properties of network structures and found that the manner in which thresholds are arrayed over a network is the most critical factor determining the size of a cascade. On the basis of the results, we derived a threshold arrangement method effective for generation of a critical mass and calculated the size required for perfect adoption.

Linking removal targets to the ecological effects of invaders: a predictive model and field test.

PubMed

Green, Stephanie J; Dulvy, Nicholas K; Brooks, Annabelle M L; Akins, John L; Cooper, Andrew B; Miller, Skylar; Côté, Isabelle M

Species invasions have a range of negative effects on recipient ecosystems, and many occur at a scale and magnitude that preclude complete eradication. When complete extirpation is unlikely with available management resources, an effective strategy may be to suppress invasive populations below levels predicted to cause undesirable ecological change. We illustrated this approach by developing and testing targets for the control of invasive Indo-Pacific lionfish (Pterois volitans and P. miles) on Western Atlantic coral reefs. We first developed a size-structured simulation model of predation by lionfish on native fish communities, which we used to predict threshold densities of lionfish beyond which native fish biomass should decline. We then tested our predictions by experimentally manipulating lionfish densities above or below reef-specific thresholds, and monitoring the consequences for native fish populations on 24 Bahamian patch reefs over 18 months. We found that reducing lionfish below predicted threshold densities effectively protected native fish community biomass from predation-induced declines. Reductions in density of 25–92%, depending on the reef, were required to suppress lionfish below levels predicted to overconsume prey. On reefs where lionfish were kept below threshold densities, native prey fish biomass increased by 50–70%. Gains in small (<6 cm) size classes of native fishes translated into lagged increases in larger size classes over time. The biomass of larger individuals (>15 cm total length), including ecologically important grazers and economically important fisheries species, had increased by 10–65% by the end of the experiment. Crucially, similar gains in prey fish biomass were realized on reefs subjected to partial and full removal of lionfish, but partial removals took 30% less time to implement. By contrast, the biomass of small native fishes declined by >50% on all reefs with lionfish densities exceeding reef-specific thresholds. Large inter-reef variation in the biomass of prey fishes at the outset of the study, which influences the threshold density of lionfish, means that we could not identify a single rule of thumb for guiding control efforts. However, our model provides a method for setting reef-specific targets for population control using local monitoring data. Our work is the first to demonstrate that for ongoing invasions, suppressing invaders below densities that cause environmental harm can have a similar effect, in terms of protecting the native ecosystem on a local scale, to achieving complete eradication.

Fatal disease and demographic Allee effect: population persistence and extinction.

PubMed

Friedman, Avner; Yakubu, Abdul-Aziz

2012-01-01

If a healthy stable host population at the disease-free equilibrium is subject to the Allee effect, can a small number of infected individuals with a fatal disease cause the host population to go extinct? That is, does the Allee effect matter at high densities? To answer this question, we use a susceptible-infected epidemic model to obtain model parameters that lead to host population persistence (with or without infected individuals) and to host extinction. We prove that the presence of an Allee effect in host demographics matters even at large population densities. We show that a small perturbation to the disease-free equilibrium can eventually lead to host population extinction. In addition, we prove that additional deaths due to a fatal infectious disease effectively increase the Allee threshold of the host population demographics.

Threshold flux-controlled memristor model and its equivalent circuit implementation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Hua-Gan; Bao, Bo-Cheng; Chen, Mo

2014-11-01

Modeling a memristor is an effective way to explore the memristor properties due to the fact that the memristor devices are still not commercially available for common researchers. In this paper, a physical memristive device is assumed to exist whose ionic drift direction is perpendicular to the direction of the applied voltage, upon which, corresponding to the HP charge-controlled memristor model, a novel threshold flux-controlled memristor model with a window function is proposed. The fingerprints of the proposed model are analyzed. Especially, a practical equivalent circuit of the proposed model is realized, from which the corresponding experimental fingerprints are captured. The equivalent circuit of the threshold memristor model is appropriate for various memristors based breadboard experiments.

The scaling of contact rates with population density for the infectious disease models.

PubMed

Hu, Hao; Nigmatulina, Karima; Eckhoff, Philip

2013-08-01

Contact rates and patterns among individuals in a geographic area drive transmission of directly-transmitted pathogens, making it essential to understand and estimate contacts for simulation of disease dynamics. Under the uniform mixing assumption, one of two mechanisms is typically used to describe the relation between contact rate and population density: density-dependent or frequency-dependent. Based on existing evidence of population threshold and human mobility patterns, we formulated a spatial contact model to describe the appropriate form of transmission with initial growth at low density and saturation at higher density. We show that the two mechanisms are extreme cases that do not capture real population movement across all scales. Empirical data of human and wildlife diseases indicate that a nonlinear function may work better when looking at the full spectrum of densities. This estimation can be applied to large areas with population mixing in general activities. For crowds with unusually large densities (e.g., transportation terminals, stadiums, or mass gatherings), the lack of organized social contact structure deviates the physical contacts towards a special case of the spatial contact model - the dynamics of kinetic gas molecule collision. In this case, an ideal gas model with van der Waals correction fits well; existing movement observation data and the contact rate between individuals is estimated using kinetic theory. A complete picture of contact rate scaling with population density may help clarify the definition of transmission rates in heterogeneous, large-scale spatial systems. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A biometeorological model of an encephalitis vector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raddatz, R. L.

1986-01-01

Multiple linear regression techniques and seven years of data were used to build a biometeorological model of Winnipeg's mean daily levels of Culex tarsalis Coquillett. An eighth year of data was used to test the model. Hydrologic accounting of precipitation, evapotranspiration and runoff provided estimates of wetness while the warmness of the season was gauged in terms of the average temperature difference from normal and a threshold antecedent temperature regime. These factors were found to be highly correlated with the time-series of Cx. tarsalis counts. The impact of mosquito adulticiding measures was included in the model via a control effectiveness parameter. An activity-level adjustment, based on mean daily temperatures, was also made to the counts. This model can, by monitoring the weather, provide forecasts of Cx. tarsalis populations for Winnipeg with a lead-time of three weeks, thereby, contributing to an early warning of an impending Western Equine Encephalitis outbreak.

Definition of temperature thresholds: the example of the French heat wave warning system.

PubMed

Pascal, Mathilde; Wagner, Vérène; Le Tertre, Alain; Laaidi, Karine; Honoré, Cyrille; Bénichou, Françoise; Beaudeau, Pascal

2013-01-01

Heat-related deaths should be somewhat preventable. In France, some prevention measures are activated when minimum and maximum temperatures averaged over three days reach city-specific thresholds. The current thresholds were computed based on a descriptive analysis of past heat waves and on local expert judgement. We tested whether a different method would confirm these thresholds. The study was set in the six cities of Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Nantes, Strasbourg and Limoges between 1973 and 2003. For each city, we estimated the excess in mortality associated with different temperature thresholds, using a generalised additive model, controlling for long-time trends, seasons and days of the week. These models were used to compute the mortality predicted by different percentiles of temperatures. The thresholds were chosen as the percentiles associated with a significant excess mortality. In all cities, there was a good correlation between current thresholds and the thresholds derived from the models, with 0°C to 3°C differences for averaged maximum temperatures. Both set of thresholds were able to anticipate the main periods of excess mortality during the summers of 1973 to 2003. A simple method relying on descriptive analysis and expert judgement is sufficient to define protective temperature thresholds and to prevent heat wave mortality. As temperatures are increasing along with the climate change and adaptation is ongoing, more research is required to understand if and when thresholds should be modified.

The impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality in Sydney.

PubMed

Physick, William; Cope, Martin; Lee, Sunhee

2014-01-13

Coupled global, regional and chemical transport models are now being used with relative-risk functions to determine the impact of climate change on human health. Studies have been carried out for global and regional scales, and in our paper we examine the impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality at the local scale across an urban metropolis (Sydney, Australia). Using three coupled models, with a grid spacing of 3 km for the chemical transport model (CTM), and a mortality relative risk function of 1.0006 per 1 ppb increase in daily maximum 1-hour ozone concentration, we evaluated the change in ozone concentrations and mortality between decades 1996-2005 and 2051-2060. The global model was run with the A2 emissions scenario. As there is currently uncertainty regarding a threshold concentration below which ozone does not impact on mortality, we calculated mortality estimates for the three daily maximum 1-hr ozone concentration thresholds of 0, 25 and 40 ppb. The mortality increase for 2051-2060 ranges from 2.3% for a 0 ppb threshold to 27.3% for a 40 ppb threshold, although the numerical increases differ little. Our modeling approach is able to identify the variation in ozone-related mortality changes at a suburban scale, estimating that climate change could lead to an additional 55 to 65 deaths across Sydney in the decade 2051-2060. Interestingly, the largest increases do not correspond spatially to the largest ozone increases or the densest population centres. The distribution pattern of changes does not seem to vary with threshold value, while the magnitude only varies slightly.

A score-statistic approach for determining threshold values in QTL mapping.

PubMed

Kao, Chen-Hung; Ho, Hsiang-An

2012-06-01

Issues in determining the threshold values of QTL mapping are often investigated for the backcross and F2 populations with relatively simple genome structures so far. The investigations of these issues in the progeny populations after F2 (advanced populations) with relatively more complicated genomes are generally inadequate. As these advanced populations have been well implemented in QTL mapping, it is important to address these issues for them in more details. Due to an increasing number of meiosis cycle, the genomes of the advanced populations can be very different from the backcross and F2 genomes. Therefore, special devices that consider the specific genome structures present in the advanced populations are required to resolve these issues. By considering the differences in genome structure between populations, we formulate more general score test statistics and gaussian processes to evaluate their threshold values. In general, we found that, given a significance level and a genome size, threshold values for QTL detection are higher in the denser marker maps and in the more advanced populations. Simulations were performed to validate our approach.

A generalized methodology for identification of threshold for HRU delineation in SWAT model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

M, J.; Sudheer, K.; Chaubey, I.; Raj, C.

2016-12-01

The distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a comprehensive hydrologic model widely used for making various decisions. The simulation accuracy of the distributed hydrological model differs due to the mechanism involved in the subdivision of the watershed. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) considers sub-dividing the watershed and the sub-basins into small computing units known as 'hydrologic response units (HRU). The delineation of HRU is done based on unique combinations of land use, soil types, and slope within the sub-watersheds, which are not spatially defined. The computations in SWAT are done at HRU level and are then aggregated up to the sub-basin outlet, which is routed through the stream system. Generally, the HRUs are delineated by considering a threshold percentage of land use, soil and slope are to be given by the modeler to decrease the computation time of the model. The thresholds constrain the minimum area for constructing an HRU. In the current HRU delineation practice in SWAT, the land use, soil and slope of the watershed within a sub-basin, which is less than the predefined threshold, will be surpassed by the dominating land use, soil and slope, and introduce some level of ambiguity in the process simulations in terms of inappropriate representation of the area. But the loss of information due to variation in the threshold values depends highly on the purpose of the study. Therefore this research studies the effects of threshold values of HRU delineation on the hydrological modeling of SWAT on sediment simulations and suggests guidelines for selecting the appropriate threshold values considering the sediment simulation accuracy. The preliminary study was done on Illinois watershed by assigning different thresholds for land use and soil. A general methodology was proposed for identifying an appropriate threshold for HRU delineation in SWAT model that considered computational time and accuracy of the simulation. The methodology can be adopted for identifying an appropriate threshold for SWAT model simulation in any watershed with a single simulation of the model with a zero-zero threshold.

Population response to climate change: linear vs. non-linear modeling approaches.

PubMed

Ellis, Alicia M; Post, Eric

2004-03-31

Research on the ecological consequences of global climate change has elicited a growing interest in the use of time series analysis to investigate population dynamics in a changing climate. Here, we compare linear and non-linear models describing the contribution of climate to the density fluctuations of the population of wolves on Isle Royale, Michigan from 1959 to 1999. The non-linear self excitatory threshold autoregressive (SETAR) model revealed that, due to differences in the strength and nature of density dependence, relatively small and large populations may be differentially affected by future changes in climate. Both linear and non-linear models predict a decrease in the population of wolves with predicted changes in climate. Because specific predictions differed between linear and non-linear models, our study highlights the importance of using non-linear methods that allow the detection of non-linearity in the strength and nature of density dependence. Failure to adopt a non-linear approach to modelling population response to climate change, either exclusively or in addition to linear approaches, may compromise efforts to quantify ecological consequences of future warming.

Clinical Predictive Models for Chemotherapy-Induced Febrile Neutropenia in Breast Cancer Patients: A Validation Study

PubMed Central

Zhu, Liling; Su, Fengxi; Jia, Weijuan; Deng, Xiaogeng

2014-01-01

Background Predictive models for febrile neutropenia (FN) would be informative for physicians in clinical decision making. This study aims to validate a predictive model (Jenkin’s model) that comprises pretreatment hematological parameters in early-stage breast cancer patients. Patients and Methods A total of 428 breast cancer patients who received neoadjuvant/adjuvant chemotherapy without any prophylactic use of colony-stimulating factor were included. Pretreatment absolute neutrophil counts (ANC) and absolute lymphocyte counts (ALC) were used by the Jenkin’s model to assess the risk of FN. In addition, we modified the threshold of Jenkin’s model and generated Model-A and B. We also developed Model-C by incorporating the absolute monocyte count (AMC) as a predictor into Model-A. The rates of FN in the 1st chemotherapy cycle were calculated. A valid model should be able to significantly identify high-risk subgroup of patients with FN rate >20%. Results Jenkin’s model (Predicted as high-risk when ANC≦3.1*10∧9/L;ALC≦1.5*10∧9/L) did not identify any subgroups with significantly high risk (>20%) of FN in our population, even if we used different thresholds in Model-A(ANC≦4.4*10∧9/L;ALC≦2.1*10∧9/L) or B(ANC≦3.8*10∧9/L;ALC≦1.8*10∧9/L). However, with AMC added as an additional predictor, Model-C(ANC≦4.4*10∧9/L;ALC≦2.1*10∧9/L; AMC≦0.28*10∧9/L) identified a subgroup of patients with a significantly high risk of FN (23.1%). Conclusions In our population, Jenkin’s model, cannot accurately identify patients with a significant risk of FN. The threshold should be changed and the AMC should be incorporated as a predictor, to have excellent predictive ability. PMID:24945817

Evidence Accumulator or Decision Threshold – Which Cortical Mechanism are We Observing?

PubMed Central

Simen, Patrick

2012-01-01

Most psychological models of perceptual decision making are of the accumulation-to-threshold variety. The neural basis of accumulation in parietal and prefrontal cortex is therefore a topic of great interest in neuroscience. In contrast, threshold mechanisms have received less attention, and their neural basis has usually been sought in subcortical structures. Here I analyze a model of a decision threshold that can be implemented in the same cortical areas as evidence accumulators, and whose behavior bears on two open questions in decision neuroscience: (1) When ramping activity is observed in a brain region during decision making, does it reflect evidence accumulation? (2) Are changes in speed-accuracy tradeoffs and response biases more likely to be achieved by changes in thresholds, or in accumulation rates and starting points? The analysis suggests that task-modulated ramping activity, by itself, is weak evidence that a brain area mediates evidence accumulation as opposed to threshold readout; and that signs of modulated accumulation are as likely to indicate threshold adaptation as adaptation of starting points and accumulation rates. These conclusions imply that how thresholds are modeled can dramatically impact accumulator-based interpretations of this data. PMID:22737136

A mismatch between population health literacy and the complexity of health information: an observational study.

PubMed

Rowlands, Gillian; Protheroe, Joanne; Winkley, John; Richardson, Marty; Seed, Paul T; Rudd, Rima

2015-06-01

Low health literacy is associated with poorer health and higher mortality. Complex health materials are a barrier to health. To assess the literacy and numeracy skills required to understand and use commonly used English health information materials, and to describe population skills in relation to these. An English observational study comparing health materials with national working-age population skills. Health materials were sampled using a health literacy framework. Competency thresholds to understand and use the materials were identified. The proportion of the population above and below these thresholds, and the sociodemographic variables associated with a greater risk of being below the thresholds, were described. Sixty-four health materials were sampled. Two competency thresholds were identified: text (literacy) only, and text + numeracy; 2515/5795 participants (43%) were below the text-only threshold, while 2905/4767 (61%) were below the text + numeracy threshold. Univariable analyses of social determinants of health showed that those groups more at risk of socioeconomic deprivation had higher odds of being below the health literacy competency threshold than those at lower risk of deprivation. Multivariable analysis resulted in some variables becoming non-significant or reduced in effect. Levels of low health literacy mirror those found in other industrialised countries, with a mismatch between the complexity of health materials and the skills of the English adult working-age population. Those most in need of health information have the least access to it. Efficacious strategies are building population skills, improving health professionals' communication, and improving written health information. © British Journal of General Practice 2015.

Sarcopenic Obesity in Adults With Spinal Cord Injury: A Cross-Sectional Study.

PubMed

Pelletier, Chelsea A; Miyatani, Masae; Giangregorio, Lora; Craven, B Catharine

2016-11-01

To describe (1) the frequency and utility of clinically relevant spinal cord injury (SCI)-specific and general population thresholds for obesity and sarcopenic obesity; and (2) the fat and lean soft tissue distributions based on the neurologic level of injury and the American Spinal Injury Association Impairment Scale. Cross-sectional. Tertiary SCI rehabilitation hospital. Persons (N=136; men, n=100; women, n=36) with chronic (mean ± SD: 15.6±11.3y postinjury) tetraplegia (n=66) or paraplegia (n=70). Not applicable. Body composition was assessed with anthropometrics and whole-body dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry. Muscle atrophy was quantified using a sarcopenia threshold of appendicular lean mass index (ALMI) (men, ≤7.26kg/m 2 ; women, ≤5.5kg/m 2 ). Obesity was defined by percentage body fat (men, ≥25%; women, ≥35%), visceral adipose tissue (≥130cm 2 ), and SCI-specific obesity thresholds (body mass index [BMI] ≥22kg/m 2 ; waist circumference ≥94cm). Sarcopenic obesity was defined as the presence of both sarcopenia and obesity. Groups were compared based on impairment characteristics using an analysis of covariance. Sarcopenic obesity was prevalent in 41.9% of the sample. ALMI was lower among participants with motor-complete (6.2±1.3kg/m 2 ) versus motor-incomplete (7.5±1.6kg/m 2 ) injuries (P<.01). Whole-body fat was greater among participants with tetraplegia (28.8±11.2kg) versus paraplegia (24.1±8.7kg; P<.05). Compared with general population guidelines (20.6%), SCI-specific BMI thresholds identified all the participants with obesity (77.9%) based on percentage body fat (72.1%). The observed frequency of sarcopenic obesity in this sample of individuals with chronic SCI is very high, and identification of obesity is dissimilar when using SCI-specific versus general population criteria. Copyright © 2016 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dynamic complexities in a pest control model with birth pulse and harvesting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goel, A., E-mail: goelanju23@gmail.com; Gakkhar, S., E-mail: sungkfma@iitr.ernet.in

In this paper, an impulsive model is discussed for an integrated pest management approach comprising of chemical and mechanical controls. The pesticides and harvesting are used to control the stage-structured pest population. The mature pest give birth to immature pest in pulses at regular intervals. The pest is controlled by spraying chemical pesticides affecting immature as well as mature pest. The harvesting of both immature and mature pest further reduce the pest population. The discrete dynamical system obtained from stroboscopic map is analyzed. The threshold conditions for stability of pest-free state as well as non-trivial period-1 solution is obtained. Themore » effect of pesticide spray timing and harvesting on immature as well as mature pest are shown. Finally, by numerical simulation with MATLAB, the dynamical behaviors of the model is found to be complex. Above the threshold level there is a characteristic sequence of bifurcations leading to chaotic dynamics. Route to chaos is found to be period-doubling. Period halving bifurcations are also observed.« less

Prolonged recovery of sea otters from the Exxon Valdez oil spill? A re-examination of the evidence.

PubMed

Garshelis, David L; Johnson, Charles B

2013-06-15

Sea otters (Enhydra lutris) suffered major mortality after the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound, Alaska, 1989. We evaluate the contention that their recovery spanned over two decades. A model based on the otter age-at-death distribution suggested a large, spill-related population sink, but this has never been found, and other model predictions failed to match empirical data. Studies focused on a previously-oiled area where otter numbers (~80) stagnated post-spill; nevertheless, post-spill abundance exceeded the most recent pre-spill count, and population trends paralleled an adjacent, unoiled-lightly-oiled area. Some investigators posited that otters suffered chronic effects by digging up buried oil residues while foraging, but an ecological risk assessment indicated that exposure levels via this pathway were well below thresholds for toxicological effects. Significant confounding factors, including killer whale predation, subsistence harvests, human disturbances, and environmental regime shifts made it impossible to judge recovery at such a small scale. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Theory of Visual Attention (TVA) applied to mice in the 5-choice serial reaction time task.

PubMed

Fitzpatrick, C M; Caballero-Puntiverio, M; Gether, U; Habekost, T; Bundesen, C; Vangkilde, S; Woldbye, D P D; Andreasen, J T; Petersen, A

2017-03-01

The 5-choice serial reaction time task (5-CSRTT) is widely used to measure rodent attentional functions. In humans, many attention studies in healthy and clinical populations have used testing based on Bundesen's Theory of Visual Attention (TVA) to estimate visual processing speeds and other parameters of attentional capacity. We aimed to bridge these research fields by modifying the 5-CSRTT's design and by mathematically modelling data to derive attentional parameters analogous to human TVA-based measures. C57BL/6 mice were tested in two 1-h sessions on consecutive days with a version of the 5-CSRTT where stimulus duration (SD) probe length was varied based on information from previous TVA studies. Thereafter, a scopolamine hydrobromide (HBr; 0.125 or 0.25 mg/kg) pharmacological challenge was undertaken, using a Latin square design. Mean score values were modelled using a new three-parameter version of TVA to obtain estimates of visual processing speeds, visual thresholds and motor response baselines in each mouse. The parameter estimates for each animal were reliable across sessions, showing that the data were stable enough to support analysis on an individual level. Scopolamine HBr dose-dependently reduced 5-CSRTT attentional performance while also increasing reward collection latency at the highest dose. Upon TVA modelling, scopolamine HBr significantly reduced visual processing speed at both doses, while having less pronounced effects on visual thresholds and motor response baselines. This study shows for the first time how 5-CSRTT performance in mice can be mathematically modelled to yield estimates of attentional capacity that are directly comparable to estimates from human studies.

Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of potential responses to future high levels of transmitted HIV drug resistance in antiretroviral drug-naive populations beginning treatment: modelling study and economic analysis

PubMed Central

Phillips, Andrew N; Cambiano, Valentina; Miners, Alec; Revill, Paul; Pillay, Deenan; Lundgren, Jens D; Bennett, Diane; Raizes, Elliott; Nakagawa, Fumiyo; De Luca, Andrea; Vitoria, Marco; Barcarolo, Jhoney; Perriens, Joseph; Jordan, Michael R; Bertagnolio, Silvia

2016-01-01

Summary Background With continued roll-out of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings, evidence is emerging of increasing levels of transmitted drug-resistant HIV. We aimed to compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of different potential public health responses to substantial levels of transmitted drug resistance. Methods We created a model of HIV transmission, progression, and the effects of ART, which accounted for resistance generation, transmission, and disappearance of resistance from majority virus in the absence of drug pressure. We simulated 5000 ART programmatic scenarios with different prevalence levels of detectable resistance in people starting ART in 2017 (t0) who had not previously been exposed to antiretroviral drugs. We used the model to predict cost-effectiveness of various potential changes in policy triggered by different prevalence levels of resistance to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) measured in the population starting ART. Findings Individual-level resistance testing before ART initiation was not generally a cost-effective option, irrespective of the cost-effectiveness threshold. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of US$500 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY), no change in policy was cost effective (ie, no change in policy would involve paying less than $500 per QALY gained), irrespective of the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI resistance, because of the increased cost of the policy alternatives. At thresholds of $1000 or higher, and with the prevalence of pretreatment NNRTI resistance greater than 10%, a policy to measure viral load 6 months after ART initiation became cost effective. The policy option to change the standard first-line treatment to a boosted protease inhibitor regimen became cost effective at a prevalence of NNRTI resistance higher than 15%, for cost-effectiveness thresholds greater than $2000. Interpretation Cost-effectiveness of potential policies to adopt in response to different levels of pretreatment HIV drug resistance depends on competing budgetary claims, reflected in the cost-effectiveness threshold. Results from our model will help inform WHO recommendations on monitoring of HIV drug resistance in people starting ART. Funding WHO (with funds provided by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation), CHAIN (European Commission). PMID:26423990

A derivation of the stable cavitation threshold accounting for bubble-bubble interactions.

PubMed

Guédra, Matthieu; Cornu, Corentin; Inserra, Claude

2017-09-01

The subharmonic emission of sound coming from the nonlinear response of a bubble population is the most used indicator for stable cavitation. When driven at twice their resonance frequency, bubbles can exhibit subharmonic spherical oscillations if the acoustic pressure amplitude exceeds a threshold value. Although various theoretical derivations exist for the subharmonic emission by free or coated bubbles, they all rest on the single bubble model. In this paper, we propose an analytical expression of the subharmonic threshold for interacting bubbles in a homogeneous, monodisperse cloud. This theory predicts a shift of the subharmonic resonance frequency and a decrease of the corresponding pressure threshold due to the interactions. For a given sonication frequency, these results show that an optimal value of the interaction strength (i.e. the number density of bubbles) can be found for which the subharmonic threshold is minimum, which is consistent with recently published experiments conducted on ultrasound contrast agents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Drought survival is a threshold function of habitat size and population density in a fish metapopulation.

PubMed

White, Richard S A; McHugh, Peter A; McIntosh, Angus R

2016-10-01

Because smaller habitats dry more frequently and severely during droughts, habitat size is likely a key driver of survival in populations during climate change and associated increased extreme drought frequency. Here, we show that survival in populations during droughts is a threshold function of habitat size driven by an interaction with population density in metapopulations of the forest pool dwelling fish, Neochanna apoda. A mark-recapture study involving 830 N. apoda individuals during a one-in-seventy-year extreme drought revealed that survival during droughts was high for populations occupying pools deeper than 139 mm, but declined steeply in shallower pools. This threshold was caused by an interaction between increasing population density and drought magnitude associated with decreasing habitat size, which acted synergistically to increase physiological stress and mortality. This confirmed two long-held hypotheses, firstly concerning the interactive role of population density and physiological stress, herein driven by habitat size, and secondly, the occurrence of drought survival thresholds. Our results demonstrate how survival in populations during droughts will depend strongly on habitat size and highlight that minimum habitat size thresholds will likely be required to maximize survival as the frequency and intensity of droughts are projected to increase as a result of global climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Structured decision making as a conceptual framework to identify thresholds for conservation and management

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, J.; Runge, M.C.; Nichols, J.D.; Lubow, B.C.; Kendall, W.L.

2009-01-01

Thresholds and their relevance to conservation have become a major topic of discussion in the ecological literature. Unfortunately, in many cases the lack of a clear conceptual framework for thinking about thresholds may have led to confusion in attempts to apply the concept of thresholds to conservation decisions. Here, we advocate a framework for thinking about thresholds in terms of a structured decision making process. The purpose of this framework is to promote a logical and transparent process for making informed decisions for conservation. Specification of such a framework leads naturally to consideration of definitions and roles of different kinds of thresholds in the process. We distinguish among three categories of thresholds. Ecological thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes bring about substantial changes in system dynamics. Utility thresholds are components of management objectives (determined by human values) and are values of state or performance variables at which small changes yield substantial changes in the value of the management outcome. Decision thresholds are values of system state variables at which small changes prompt changes in management actions in order to reach specified management objectives. The approach that we present focuses directly on the objectives of management, with an aim to providing decisions that are optimal with respect to those objectives. This approach clearly distinguishes the components of the decision process that are inherently subjective (management objectives, potential management actions) from those that are more objective (system models, estimates of system state). Optimization based on these components then leads to decision matrices specifying optimal actions to be taken at various values of system state variables. Values of state variables separating different actions in such matrices are viewed as decision thresholds. Utility thresholds are included in the objectives component, and ecological thresholds may be embedded in models projecting consequences of management actions. Decision thresholds are determined by the above-listed components of a structured decision process. These components may themselves vary over time, inducing variation in the decision thresholds inherited from them. These dynamic decision thresholds can then be determined using adaptive management. We provide numerical examples (that are based on patch occupancy models) of structured decision processes that include all three kinds of thresholds. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Establishing endangered species recovery criteria using predictive simulation modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

McGowan, Conor P.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Gratto-Trevor, Cheri L.; Aron, Carol

2014-01-01

Listing a species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and developing a recovery plan requires U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to establish specific and measurable criteria for delisting. Generally, species are listed because they face (or are perceived to face) elevated risk of extinction due to issues such as habitat loss, invasive species, or other factors. Recovery plans identify recovery criteria that reduce extinction risk to an acceptable level. It logically follows that the recovery criteria, the defined conditions for removing a species from ESA protections, need to be closely related to extinction risk. Extinction probability is a population parameter estimated with a model that uses current demographic information to project the population into the future over a number of replicates, calculating the proportion of replicated populations that go extinct. We simulated extinction probabilities of piping plovers in the Great Plains and estimated the relationship between extinction probability and various demographic parameters. We tested the fit of regression models linking initial abundance, productivity, or population growth rate to extinction risk, and then, using the regression parameter estimates, determined the conditions required to reduce extinction probability to some pre-defined acceptable threshold. Binomial regression models with mean population growth rate and the natural log of initial abundance were the best predictors of extinction probability 50 years into the future. For example, based on our regression models, an initial abundance of approximately 2400 females with an expected mean population growth rate of 1.0 will limit extinction risk for piping plovers in the Great Plains to less than 0.048. Our method provides a straightforward way of developing specific and measurable recovery criteria linked directly to the core issue of extinction risk. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Modeling vaccination in a heterogeneous metapopulation system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lachiany, Menachem

2016-09-01

We present here a multicity SIS epidemic model with vaccination. The model describes the dynamics of heterogeneous metapopulations that contain imperfectly vaccinated individuals. The effect of vaccination on heterogeneous multicity models has not been previously studied. We show that under very generic conditions, the epidemic threshold does not depend on the diffusion coefficient of the vaccinated individuals, but it does depend on the diffusion coefficient of the infected population. We then show, using a novel methodology, that the reproduction number is determined by the homogeneous model parameters and by the maximal number of neighbors a city can have, when the diffusion coefficient of the infected population is low. Finally, we present numerical simulations to support the analytical results.

Video time encoding machines.

PubMed

Lazar, Aurel A; Pnevmatikakis, Eftychios A

2011-03-01

We investigate architectures for time encoding and time decoding of visual stimuli such as natural and synthetic video streams (movies, animation). The architecture for time encoding is akin to models of the early visual system. It consists of a bank of filters in cascade with single-input multi-output neural circuits. Neuron firing is based on either a threshold-and-fire or an integrate-and-fire spiking mechanism with feedback. We show that analog information is represented by the neural circuits as projections on a set of band-limited functions determined by the spike sequence. Under Nyquist-type and frame conditions, the encoded signal can be recovered from these projections with arbitrary precision. For the video time encoding machine architecture, we demonstrate that band-limited video streams of finite energy can be faithfully recovered from the spike trains and provide a stable algorithm for perfect recovery. The key condition for recovery calls for the number of neurons in the population to be above a threshold value.

Video Time Encoding Machines

PubMed Central

Lazar, Aurel A.; Pnevmatikakis, Eftychios A.

2013-01-01

We investigate architectures for time encoding and time decoding of visual stimuli such as natural and synthetic video streams (movies, animation). The architecture for time encoding is akin to models of the early visual system. It consists of a bank of filters in cascade with single-input multi-output neural circuits. Neuron firing is based on either a threshold-and-fire or an integrate-and-fire spiking mechanism with feedback. We show that analog information is represented by the neural circuits as projections on a set of band-limited functions determined by the spike sequence. Under Nyquist-type and frame conditions, the encoded signal can be recovered from these projections with arbitrary precision. For the video time encoding machine architecture, we demonstrate that band-limited video streams of finite energy can be faithfully recovered from the spike trains and provide a stable algorithm for perfect recovery. The key condition for recovery calls for the number of neurons in the population to be above a threshold value. PMID:21296708

Excitation-based and informational masking of a tonal signal in a four-tone masker.

PubMed

Leibold, Lori J; Hitchens, Jack J; Buss, Emily; Neff, Donna L

2010-04-01

This study examined contributions of peripheral excitation and informational masking to the variability in masking effectiveness observed across samples of multi-tonal maskers. Detection thresholds were measured for a 1000-Hz signal presented simultaneously with each of 25, four-tone masker samples. Using a two-interval, forced-choice adaptive task, thresholds were measured with each sample fixed throughout trial blocks for ten listeners. Average thresholds differed by as much as 26 dB across samples. An excitation-based model of partial loudness [Moore, B. C. J. et al. (1997). J. Audio Eng. Soc. 45, 224-237] was used to predict thresholds. These predictions accounted for a significant portion of variance in the data of several listeners, but no relation between the model and data was observed for many listeners. Moreover, substantial individual differences, on the order of 41 dB, were observed for some maskers. The largest individual differences were found for maskers predicted to produce minimal excitation-based masking. In subsequent conditions, one of five maskers was randomly presented in each interval. The difference in performance for samples with low versus high predicted thresholds was reduced in random compared to fixed conditions. These findings are consistent with a trading relation whereby informational masking is largest for conditions in which excitation-based masking is smallest.

Size and stochasticity in irrigated social-ecological systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puy, Arnald; Muneepeerakul, Rachata; Balbo, Andrea L.

2017-03-01

This paper presents a systematic study of the relation between the size of irrigation systems and the management of uncertainty. We specifically focus on studying, through a stylized theoretical model, how stochasticity in water availability and taxation interacts with the stochastic behavior of the population within irrigation systems. Our results indicate the existence of two key population thresholds for the sustainability of any irrigation system: or the critical population size required to keep the irrigation system operative, and N* or the population threshold at which the incentive to work inside the irrigation system equals the incentives to work elsewhere. Crossing irretrievably leads to system collapse. N* is the population level with a sub-optimal per capita payoff towards which irrigation systems tend to gravitate. When subjected to strong stochasticity in water availability or taxation, irrigation systems might suffer sharp population drops and irreversibly disintegrate into a system collapse, via a mechanism we dub ‘collapse trap’. Our conceptual study establishes the basis for further work aiming at appraising the dynamics between size and stochasticity in irrigation systems, whose understanding is key for devising mitigation and adaptation measures to ensure their sustainability in the face of increasing and inevitable uncertainty.

Codimension-1 Sliding Bifurcations of a Filippov Pest Growth Model with Threshold Policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tang, Sanyi; Tang, Guangyao; Qin, Wenjie

A Filippov system is proposed to describe the stage structured nonsmooth pest growth with threshold policy control (TPC). The TPC measure is represented by the total density of both juveniles and adults being chosen as an index for decisions on when to implement chemical control strategies. The proposed Filippov system can have three pieces of sliding segments and three pseudo-equilibria, which result in rich sliding mode bifurcations and local sliding bifurcations including boundary node (boundary focus, or boundary saddle) and tangency bifurcations. As the threshold density varies the model exhibits the interesting global sliding bifurcations sequentially: touching → buckling → crossing → sliding homoclinic orbit to a pseudo-saddle → crossing → touching bifurcations. In particular, bifurcation of a homoclinic orbit to a pseudo-saddle with a figure of eight shape, to a pseudo-saddle-node or to a standard saddle-node have been observed for some parameter sets. This implies that control outcomes are sensitive to the threshold level, and hence it is crucial to choose the threshold level to initiate control strategy. One more sliding segment (or pseudo-equilibrium) is induced by the total density of a population guided switching policy, compared to only the juvenile density guided policy, implying that this control policy is more effective in terms of preventing multiple pest outbreaks or causing the density of pests to stabilize at a desired level such as an economic threshold.

Five challenges for spatial epidemic models.

PubMed

Riley, Steven; Eames, Ken; Isham, Valerie; Mollison, Denis; Trapman, Pieter

2015-03-01

Infectious disease incidence data are increasingly available at the level of the individual and include high-resolution spatial components. Therefore, we are now better able to challenge models that explicitly represent space. Here, we consider five topics within spatial disease dynamics: the construction of network models; characterising threshold behaviour; modelling long-distance interactions; the appropriate scale for interventions; and the representation of population heterogeneity. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Theories of Lethal Mutagenesis: From Error Catastrophe to Lethal Defection.

PubMed

Tejero, Héctor; Montero, Francisco; Nuño, Juan Carlos

2016-01-01

RNA viruses get extinct in a process called lethal mutagenesis when subjected to an increase in their mutation rate, for instance, by the action of mutagenic drugs. Several approaches have been proposed to understand this phenomenon. The extinction of RNA viruses by increased mutational pressure was inspired by the concept of the error threshold. The now classic quasispecies model predicts the existence of a limit to the mutation rate beyond which the genetic information of the wild type could not be efficiently transmitted to the next generation. This limit was called the error threshold, and for mutation rates larger than this threshold, the quasispecies was said to enter into error catastrophe. This transition has been assumed to foster the extinction of the whole population. Alternative explanations of lethal mutagenesis have been proposed recently. In the first place, a distinction is made between the error threshold and the extinction threshold, the mutation rate beyond which a population gets extinct. Extinction is explained from the effect the mutation rate has, throughout the mutational load, on the reproductive ability of the whole population. Secondly, lethal defection takes also into account the effect of interactions within mutant spectra, which have been shown to be determinant for the understanding the extinction of RNA virus due to an augmented mutational pressure. Nonetheless, some relevant issues concerning lethal mutagenesis are not completely understood yet, as so survival of the flattest, i.e. the development of resistance to lethal mutagenesis by evolving towards mutationally more robust regions of sequence space, or sublethal mutagenesis, i.e., the increase of the mutation rate below the extinction threshold which may boost the adaptability of RNA virus, increasing their ability to develop resistance to drugs (including mutagens). A better design of antiviral therapies will still require an improvement of our knowledge about lethal mutagenesis.

Use of the FDA nozzle model to illustrate validation techniques in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations

PubMed Central

Hariharan, Prasanna; D’Souza, Gavin A.; Horner, Marc; Morrison, Tina M.; Malinauskas, Richard A.; Myers, Matthew R.

2017-01-01

A “credible” computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model has the potential to provide a meaningful evaluation of safety in medical devices. One major challenge in establishing “model credibility” is to determine the required degree of similarity between the model and experimental results for the model to be considered sufficiently validated. This study proposes a “threshold-based” validation approach that provides a well-defined acceptance criteria, which is a function of how close the simulation and experimental results are to the safety threshold, for establishing the model validity. The validation criteria developed following the threshold approach is not only a function of Comparison Error, E (which is the difference between experiments and simulations) but also takes in to account the risk to patient safety because of E. The method is applicable for scenarios in which a safety threshold can be clearly defined (e.g., the viscous shear-stress threshold for hemolysis in blood contacting devices). The applicability of the new validation approach was tested on the FDA nozzle geometry. The context of use (COU) was to evaluate if the instantaneous viscous shear stress in the nozzle geometry at Reynolds numbers (Re) of 3500 and 6500 was below the commonly accepted threshold for hemolysis. The CFD results (“S”) of velocity and viscous shear stress were compared with inter-laboratory experimental measurements (“D”). The uncertainties in the CFD and experimental results due to input parameter uncertainties were quantified following the ASME V&V 20 standard. The CFD models for both Re = 3500 and 6500 could not be sufficiently validated by performing a direct comparison between CFD and experimental results using the Student’s t-test. However, following the threshold-based approach, a Student’s t-test comparing |S-D| and |Threshold-S| showed that relative to the threshold, the CFD and experimental datasets for Re = 3500 were statistically similar and the model could be considered sufficiently validated for the COU. However, for Re = 6500, at certain locations where the shear stress is close the hemolysis threshold, the CFD model could not be considered sufficiently validated for the COU. Our analysis showed that the model could be sufficiently validated either by reducing the uncertainties in experiments, simulations, and the threshold or by increasing the sample size for the experiments and simulations. The threshold approach can be applied to all types of computational models and provides an objective way of determining model credibility and for evaluating medical devices. PMID:28594889

Re-assess Vector Indices Threshold as an Early Warning Tool for Predicting Dengue Epidemic in a Dengue Non-endemic Country

PubMed Central

Hsu, Pi-Shan; Chen, Chaur-Dong; Lian, Ie-Bin; Chao, Day-Yu

2015-01-01

Background Despite dengue dynamics being driven by complex interactions between human hosts, mosquito vectors and viruses that are influenced by climate factors, an operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the outbreak risk in a dengue non-endemic area has not been developed. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the temporal relationship between meteorological variables, entomological surveillance indices and confirmed dengue cases; and to establish the threshold for entomological surveillance indices including three mosquito larval indices [Breteau (BI), Container (CI) and House indices (HI)] and one adult index (AI) as an early warning tool for dengue epidemic. Methodology/Principal Findings Epidemiological, entomological and meteorological data were analyzed from 2005 to 2012 in Kaohsiung City, Taiwan. The successive waves of dengue outbreaks with different magnitudes were recorded in Kaohsiung City, and involved a dominant serotype during each epidemic. The annual indigenous dengue cases usually started from May to June and reached a peak in October to November. Vector data from 2005–2012 showed that the peak of the adult mosquito population was followed by a peak in the corresponding dengue activity with a lag period of 1–2 months. Therefore, we focused the analysis on the data from May to December and the high risk district, where the inspection of the immature and mature mosquitoes was carried out on a weekly basis and about 97.9% dengue cases occurred. The two-stage model was utilized here to estimate the risk and time-lag effect of annual dengue outbreaks in Taiwan. First, Poisson regression was used to select the optimal subset of variables and time-lags for predicting the number of dengue cases, and the final results of the multivariate analysis were selected based on the smallest AIC value. Next, each vector index models with selected variables were subjected to multiple logistic regression models to examine the accuracy of predicting the occurrence of dengue cases. The results suggested that Model-AI, BI, CI and HI predicted the occurrence of dengue cases with 83.8, 87.8, 88.3 and 88.4% accuracy, respectively. The predicting threshold based on individual Model-AI, BI, CI and HI was 0.97, 1.16, 1.79 and 0.997, respectively. Conclusion/Significance There was little evidence of quantifiable association among vector indices, meteorological factors and dengue transmission that could reliably be used for outbreak prediction. Our study here provided the proof-of-concept of how to search for the optimal model and determine the threshold for dengue epidemics. Since those factors used for prediction varied, depending on the ecology and herd immunity level under different geological areas, different thresholds may be developed for different countries using a similar structure of the two-stage model. PMID:26366874

PREDICTION OF PEROMYSCUS MANICULATUS (DEER MOUSE) POPULATION DYNAMICS IN MONTANA, USA, USING SATELLITE-DRIVEN VEGETATION PRODUCTIVITY AND WEATHER DATA

PubMed Central

Loehman, Rachel A.; Elias, Joran; Douglass, Richard J.; Kuenzi, Amy J.; Mills, James N.; Wagoner, Kent

2013-01-01

Deer mice (Peromyscus maniculatus) are the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus, the primary etiologic agent of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome in North America. Sequential changes in weather and plant productivity (trophic cascades) have been noted as likely catalysts of deer mouse population irruptions, and monitoring and modeling of these phenomena may allow for development of early-warning systems for disease risk. Relationships among weather variables, satellite-derived vegetation productivity, and deer mouse populations were examined for a grassland site east of the Continental Divide and a sage-steppe site west of the Continental Divide in Montana, USA. We acquired monthly deer mouse population data for mid-1994 through 2007 from long-term study sites maintained for monitoring changes in hantavirus reservoir populations, and we compared these with monthly bioclimatology data from the same period and gross primary productivity data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor for 2000–06. We used the Random Forests statistical learning technique to fit a series of predictive models based on temperature, precipitation, and vegetation productivity variables. Although we attempted several iterations of models, including incorporating lag effects and classifying rodent density by seasonal thresholds, our results showed no ability to predict rodent populations using vegetation productivity or weather data. We concluded that trophic cascade connections to rodent population levels may be weaker than originally supposed, may be specific to only certain climatic regions, or may not be detectable using remotely sensed vegetation productivity measures, although weather patterns and vegetation dynamics were positively correlated. PMID:22493110

Unipolar Terminal-Attractor Based Neural Associative Memory with Adaptive Threshold

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Hua-Kuang (Inventor); Barhen, Jacob (Inventor); Farhat, Nabil H. (Inventor); Wu, Chwan-Hwa (Inventor)

1996-01-01

A unipolar terminal-attractor based neural associative memory (TABAM) system with adaptive threshold for perfect convergence is presented. By adaptively setting the threshold values for the dynamic iteration for the unipolar binary neuron states with terminal-attractors for the purpose of reducing the spurious states in a Hopfield neural network for associative memory and using the inner-product approach, perfect convergence and correct retrieval is achieved. Simulation is completed with a small number of stored states (M) and a small number of neurons (N) but a large M/N ratio. An experiment with optical exclusive-OR logic operation using LCTV SLMs shows the feasibility of optoelectronic implementation of the models. A complete inner-product TABAM is implemented using a PC for calculation of adaptive threshold values to achieve a unipolar TABAM (UIT) in the case where there is no crosstalk, and a crosstalk model (CRIT) in the case where crosstalk corrupts the desired state.

Unipolar terminal-attractor based neural associative memory with adaptive threshold

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Hua-Kuang (Inventor); Barhen, Jacob (Inventor); Farhat, Nabil H. (Inventor); Wu, Chwan-Hwa (Inventor)

1993-01-01

A unipolar terminal-attractor based neural associative memory (TABAM) system with adaptive threshold for perfect convergence is presented. By adaptively setting the threshold values for the dynamic iteration for the unipolar binary neuron states with terminal-attractors for the purpose of reducing the spurious states in a Hopfield neural network for associative memory and using the inner product approach, perfect convergence and correct retrieval is achieved. Simulation is completed with a small number of stored states (M) and a small number of neurons (N) but a large M/N ratio. An experiment with optical exclusive-OR logic operation using LCTV SLMs shows the feasibility of optoelectronic implementation of the models. A complete inner-product TABAM is implemented using a PC for calculation of adaptive threshold values to achieve a unipolar TABAM (UIT) in the case where there is no crosstalk, and a crosstalk model (CRIT) in the case where crosstalk corrupts the desired state.

On the Spatial Spread of Rabies among Foxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murray, J. D.; Stanley, E. A.; Brown, D. L.

1986-11-01

We present a simple model for the spatial spread of rabies among foxes and use it to quantify its progress in England if rabies were introduced. The model is based on the known ecology of fox behaviour and on the assumption that the main vector for the spread of the disease is the rabid fox. Known data and facts are used to determine real parameter values involved in the model. We calculate the speed of propagation of the epizootic front, the threshold for the existence of an epidemic, the period and distance apart of the subsequent cyclical epidemics which follow the main front, and finally we quantify a means for control of the spatial spread of the disease. By way of illustration we use the model to determine the progress of rabies up through the southern part of England if it were introduced near Southampton. Estimates for the current fox density in England were used in the simulations. These suggest that the disease would reach Manchester within about 3.5 years, moving at speeds as high as 100 km per year in the central region. The model further indicates that although it might seem that the disease had disappeared after the wave had passed it would reappear in the south of England after just over 6 years and at periodic times after that. We consider the possibility of stopping the spread of the disease by creating a rabies `break' ahead of the front through vaccination to reduce the population to a level below the threshold for an epidemic to exist. Based on parameter values relevant to England, we estimate its minimum width to be about 15 km. The model suggests that vaccination has considerable advantages over severe culling.

Physiology-Based Modeling May Predict Surgical Treatment Outcome for Obstructive Sleep Apnea

PubMed Central

Li, Yanru; Ye, Jingying; Han, Demin; Cao, Xin; Ding, Xiu; Zhang, Yuhuan; Xu, Wen; Orr, Jeremy; Jen, Rachel; Sands, Scott; Malhotra, Atul; Owens, Robert

2017-01-01

Study Objectives: To test whether the integration of both anatomical and nonanatomical parameters (ventilatory control, arousal threshold, muscle responsiveness) in a physiology-based model will improve the ability to predict outcomes after upper airway surgery for obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Methods: In 31 patients who underwent upper airway surgery for OSA, loop gain and arousal threshold were calculated from preoperative polysomnography (PSG). Three models were compared: (1) a multiple regression based on an extensive list of PSG parameters alone; (2) a multivariate regression using PSG parameters plus PSG-derived estimates of loop gain, arousal threshold, and other trait surrogates; (3) a physiological model incorporating selected variables as surrogates of anatomical and nonanatomical traits important for OSA pathogenesis. Results: Although preoperative loop gain was positively correlated with postoperative apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) (P = .008) and arousal threshold was negatively correlated (P = .011), in both model 1 and 2, the only significant variable was preoperative AHI, which explained 42% of the variance in postoperative AHI. In contrast, the physiological model (model 3), which included AHIREM (anatomy term), fraction of events that were hypopnea (arousal term), the ratio of AHIREM and AHINREM (muscle responsiveness term), loop gain, and central/mixed apnea index (control of breathing terms), was able to explain 61% of the variance in postoperative AHI. Conclusions: Although loop gain and arousal threshold are associated with residual AHI after surgery, only preoperative AHI was predictive using multivariate regression modeling. Instead, incorporating selected surrogates of physiological traits on the basis of OSA pathophysiology created a model that has more association with actual residual AHI. Commentary: A commentary on this article appears in this issue on page 1023. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.Gov; Title: The Impact of Sleep Apnea Treatment on Physiology Traits in Chinese Patients With Obstructive Sleep Apnea; Identifier: NCT02696629; URL: https://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT02696629 Citation: Li Y, Ye J, Han D, Cao X, Ding X, Zhang Y, Xu W, Orr J, Jen R, Sands S, Malhotra A, Owens R. Physiology-based modeling may predict surgical treatment outcome for obstructive sleep apnea. J Clin Sleep Med. 2017;13(9):1029–1037. PMID:28818154

Effect of lethality on the extinction and on the error threshold of quasispecies.

PubMed

Tejero, Hector; Marín, Arturo; Montero, Francisco

2010-02-21

In this paper the effect of lethality on error threshold and extinction has been studied in a population of error-prone self-replicating molecules. For given lethality and a simple fitness landscape, three dynamic regimes can be obtained: quasispecies, error catastrophe, and extinction. Using a simple model in which molecules are classified as master, lethal and non-lethal mutants, it is possible to obtain the mutation rates of the transitions between the three regimes analytically. The numerical resolution of the extended model, in which molecules are classified depending on their Hamming distance to the master sequence, confirms the results obtained in the simple model and shows how an error catastrophe regime changes when lethality is taken in account. (c) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Percolation threshold determines the optimal population density for public cooperation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhen; Szolnoki, Attila; Perc, Matjaž

2012-03-01

While worldwide census data provide statistical evidence that firmly link the population density with several indicators of social welfare, the precise mechanisms underlying these observations are largely unknown. Here we study the impact of population density on the evolution of public cooperation in structured populations and find that the optimal density is uniquely related to the percolation threshold of the host graph irrespective of its topological details. We explain our observations by showing that spatial reciprocity peaks in the vicinity of the percolation threshold, when the emergence of a giant cooperative cluster is hindered neither by vacancy nor by invading defectors, thus discovering an intuitive yet universal law that links the population density with social prosperity.

Strategic behavior and governance challenges in self-organized coupled natural-human systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muneepeerakul, R.; Anderies, J. M.

2017-12-01

Successful and sustainable coupling of human societies and natural systems requires effective governance, which depends on the existence of proper infrastructure (both hard and soft). In recent decades, much attention has been paid to what has allowed many small-scale self-organized coupled natural-human systems around the world to persist for centuries, thanks to a large part to the work by Elinor Ostrom and colleagues. In this work, we mathematically operationalize a conceptual framework that is developed based on this body of work by way of a stylized model. The model captures the interplay between replicator dynamics within the population, dynamics of natural resources, and threshold characteristics of public infrastructure. The model analysis reveals conditions for long-term sustainability and collapse of the coupled systems as well as other tradeoffs and potential pitfalls in governing these systems.

Effects of noise and confidence thresholds in nominal and metric Axelrod dynamics of social influence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Sanctis, Luca; Galla, Tobias

2009-04-01

We study the effects of bounded confidence thresholds and of interaction and external noise on Axelrod’s model of social influence. Our study is based on a combination of numerical simulations and an integration of the mean-field master equation describing the system in the thermodynamic limit. We find that interaction thresholds affect the system only quantitatively, but that they do not alter the basic phase structure. The known crossover between an ordered and a disordered state in finite systems subject to external noise persists in models with general confidence threshold. Interaction noise here facilitates the dynamics and reduces relaxation times. We also study Axelrod systems with metric features and point out similarities and differences compared to models with nominal features.

Options to Improve Rain Snow Parameterization in Surface Based Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feiccabrino, J. M.

2017-12-01

Precipitation phase determination is of upmost importance in a number of surface based hydrological, ecological, and safety models. However, precipitation phase at Earth's surface is a result of cloud and atmospheric properties not measured by surface weather stations. Nonetheless, they can be inferred from the available surface datum. This study uses 681,620 weather observations with air temperatures between -3 and 5°C and identified precipitation occurring at the time of the observation to determine simple, yet accurate, thresholds for precipitation phase determination schemes (PPDS). This dataset represents 38% and 42% of precipitation observations over a 16 year period for 85 Swedish, and 84 Norwegian weather stations. The misclassified precipitation (error) from PPDS using AT, dew-point temperature (DT) and wet-bulb temperature (WB) thresholds were compared using a single threshold PPDS. The Norwegian observations between -3 and 5°C resulted in 11.64%, 11.21%, and 8.42% error for DT (-0.2°C), AT (1.2°C), and WB (0.3°C) thresholds respectively. Individual station thresholds had a range of -0.7 to 1.2°C, -1.2 to 0.9°C, and -0.1 to 2.5°C for WB, DP, and AT respectively. To address threshold variance while decreasing error, weather stations were grouped into nine landscape categories; windward (WW) ocean, WW coast, WW fjord, WW hill, WW mountain, leeward (LW) mountain, LW hill, LW rolling hills, and LW coast. Landscape classification was based on location relative to the Scandinavian Mountains, and the % water or range of elevation within 15KM. Within landscapes, stations share similar land atmosphere exchanges which differ from other landscapes. These differences change optimal thresholds for PPDS between landscapes. Also tested were threshold temperature affects based on assumed atmospheric differences for the following observation groups; 1.) occurring before and after an air mass boundary, 2.) with different water temperatures and/or NAO phases, 3.) with snow cover, 4.) coupled with higher elevation stations and 5.) with different cloud heights. For example, in Norway, as the unsaturated layer depth beneath clouds increased, AT thresholds warmed. Cloud height adjusted AT thresholds reduced error by 5% before threshold adjustments for landscapes.

Economic Evaluation of Dupilumab for the Treatment of Moderate-to-Severe Atopic Dermatitis in Adults.

PubMed

Kuznik, Andreas; Bégo-Le-Bagousse, Gaëlle; Eckert, Laurent; Gadkari, Abhijit; Simpson, Eric; Graham, Christopher N; Miles, LaStella; Mastey, Vera; Mahajan, Puneet; Sullivan, Sean D

2017-12-01

Dupilumab significantly improves signs and symptoms of atopic dermatitis (AD), including pruritus, symptoms of anxiety and depression, and health-related quality of life versus placebo in adults with moderate-to-severe AD. Since the cost-effectiveness of dupilumab has not been evaluated, the objective of this analysis was to estimate a value-based price range in which dupilumab would be considered cost-effective compared with supportive care (SC) for treatment of moderate-to-severe AD in an adult population. A health economic model was developed to evaluate from the US payer perspective the long-term costs and benefits of dupilumab treatment administered every other week (q2w). Dupilumab q2w was compared with SC; robustness of assumptions and results were tested using sensitivity and scenario analyses. Clinical data were derived from the dupilumab LIBERTY AD SOLO trials; healthcare use and cost data were from health insurance claims histories of adult patients with AD. The annual price of maintenance therapy with dupilumab to be considered cost-effective was estimated for decision thresholds of US$100,000 and $150,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. In the base case, the annual maintenance price for dupilumab therapy to be considered cost-effective would be $28,770 at a $100,000 per QALY gained threshold, and $39,940 at a $150,000 threshold. Results were generally robust to parameter variations in one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Dupilumab q2w compared with SC is cost-effective for the treatment of moderate-to-severe AD in US adults at an annual price of maintenance therapy in the range of $29,000-$40,000 at the $100,000-$150,000 per QALY thresholds. Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc.

Simulated effects of recruitment variability, exploitation, and reduced habitat area on the muskellunge population in Shoepack Lake, Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frohnauer, N.K.; Pierce, C.L.; Kallemeyn, L.W.

2007-01-01

The genetically unique population of muskellunge Esox masquinongy inhabiting Shoepack Lake in Voyageurs National Park, Minnesota, is potentially at risk for loss of genetic variability and long-term viability. Shoepack Lake has been subject to dramatic surface area changes from the construction of an outlet dam by beavers Castor canadensis and its subsequent failure. We simulated the long-term dynamics of this population in response to recruitment variation, increased exploitation, and reduced habitat area. We then estimated the effective population size of the simulated population and evaluated potential threats to long-term viability, based on which we recommend management actions to help preserve the long-term viability of the population. Simulations based on the population size and habitat area at the beginning of a companion study resulted in an effective population size that was generally above the threshold level for risk of loss of genetic variability, except when fishing mortality was increased. Simulations based on the reduced habitat area after the beaver dam failure and our assumption of a proportional reduction in population size resulted in an effective population size that was generally below the threshold level for risk of loss of genetic variability. Our results identified two potential threats to the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population, reduction in habitat area and exploitation. Increased exploitation can be prevented through traditional fishery management approaches such as the adoption of no-kill, barbless hook, and limited entry regulations. Maintenance of the greatest possible habitat area and prevention of future habitat area reductions will require maintenance of the outlet dam built by beavers. Our study should enhance the long-term viability of the Shoepack Lake muskellunge population and illustrates a useful approach for other unique populations. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

Cost-effectiveness simulation and analysis of colorectal cancer screening in Hong Kong Chinese population: comparison amongst colonoscopy, guaiac and immunologic fecal occult blood testing.

PubMed

Wong, Carlos K H; Lam, Cindy L K; Wan, Y F; Fong, Daniel Y T

2015-10-15

The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of CRC screening strategies from the healthcare service provider perspective based on Chinese population. A Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of recommended screening strategies including annual/biennial guaiac fecal occult blood testing (G-FOBT), annual/biennial immunologic FOBT (I-FOBT), and colonoscopy every 10 years in Chinese aged 50 year over a 25-year period. External validity of model was tested against data retrieved from published randomized controlled trials of G-FOBT. Recourse use data collected from Chinese subjects among staging of colorectal neoplasm were combined with published unit cost data ($USD in 2009 price values) to estimate a stage-specific cost per patient. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were quantified based on the stage duration and SF-6D preference-based value of each stage. The cost-effectiveness outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) represented by costs per life-years (LY) and costs per QALYs gained. In base-case scenario, the non-dominated strategies were annual and biennial I-FOBT. Compared with no screening, the ICER presented $20,542/LYs and $3155/QALYs gained for annual I-FOBT, and $19,838/LYs gained and $2976/QALYs gained for biennial I-FOBT. The optimal screening strategy was annual I-FOBT that attained the highest ICER at the threshold of $50,000 per LYs or QALYs gained. The Markov model informed the health policymakers that I-FOBT every year may be the most effective and cost-effective CRC screening strategy among recommended screening strategies, depending on the willingness-to-pay of mass screening for Chinese population. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT02038283.

The economic feasibility of price discounts to improve diet in Australian Aboriginal remote communities.

PubMed

Magnus, Anne; Moodie, Marj L; Ferguson, Megan; Cobiac, Linda J; Liberato, Selma C; Brimblecombe, Julie

2016-04-01

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of fiscal measures applied in remote community food stores for Aboriginal Australians. Six price discount strategies on fruit, vegetables, diet drinks and water were modelled. Baseline diet was measured as 12 months' actual food sales data in three remote Aboriginal communities. Discount-induced changes in food purchases were based on published price elasticity data while the weight of the daily diet was assumed constant. Dietary change was converted to change in sodium and energy intake, and body mass index (BMI) over a 12-month period. Improved lifetime health outcomes, modelled for the remote population of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders, were converted to disability adjusted life years (DALYs) saved using a proportional multistate lifetable model populated with diet-related disease risks and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander rates of disease. While dietary change was small, five of the six price discount strategies were estimated as cost-effective, below a $50,000/DALY threshold. Stakeholders are committed to finding ways to reduce important inequalities in health status between Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders and non-Indigenous Australians. Price discounts offer potential to improve Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander health. Verification of these results by trial-based research coupled with consideration of factors important to all stakeholders is needed. © 2015 The Authors.

Ambient high temperature and mortality in Jinan, China: A study of heat thresholds and vulnerable populations.

PubMed

Li, Jing; Xu, Xin; Yang, Jun; Liu, Zhidong; Xu, Lei; Gao, Jinghong; Liu, Xiaobo; Wu, Haixia; Wang, Jun; Yu, Jieqiong; Jiang, Baofa; Liu, Qiyong

2017-07-01

Understanding the health consequences of continuously rising temperatures-as is projected for China-is important in terms of developing heat-health adaptation and intervention programs. This study aimed to examine the association between mortality and daily maximum (T max ), mean (T mean ), and minimum (T min ) temperatures in warmer months; to explore threshold temperatures; and to identify optimal heat indicators and vulnerable populations. Daily data on temperature and mortality were obtained for the period 2007-2013. Heat thresholds for condition-specific mortality were estimated using an observed/expected analysis. We used a generalised additive model with a quasi-Poisson distribution to examine the association between mortality and T max /T min /T mean values higher than the threshold values, after adjustment for covariates. T max /T mean /T min thresholds were 32/28/24°C for non-accidental deaths; 32/28/24°C for cardiovascular deaths; 35/31/26°C for respiratory deaths; and 34/31/28°C for diabetes-related deaths. For each 1°C increase in T max /T mean /T min above the threshold, the mortality risk of non-accidental-, cardiovascular-, respiratory, and diabetes-related death increased by 2.8/5.3/4.8%, 4.1/7.2/6.6%, 6.6/25.3/14.7%, and 13.3/30.5/47.6%, respectively. Thresholds for mortality differed according to health condition when stratified by sex, age, and education level. For non-accidental deaths, effects were significant in individuals aged ≥65 years (relative risk=1.038, 95% confidence interval: 1.026-1.050), but not for those ≤64 years. For most outcomes, women and people ≥65 years were more vulnerable. High temperature significantly increases the risk of mortality in the population of Jinan, China. Climate change with rising temperatures may bring about the situation worse. Public health programs should be improved and implemented to prevent and reduce health risks during hot days, especially for the identified vulnerable groups. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Demographic and Component Allee Effects in Southern Lake Superior Gray Wolves

PubMed Central

Stenglein, Jennifer L.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.

2016-01-01

Recovering populations of carnivores suffering Allee effects risk extinction because positive population growth requires a minimum number of cooperating individuals. Conservationists seldom consider these issues in planning for carnivore recovery because of data limitations, but ignoring Allee effects could lead to overly optimistic predictions for growth and underestimates of extinction risk. We used Bayesian splines to document a demographic Allee effect in the time series of gray wolf (Canis lupus) population counts (1980–2011) in the southern Lake Superior region (SLS, Wisconsin and the upper peninsula of Michigan, USA) in each of four measures of population growth. We estimated that the population crossed the Allee threshold at roughly 20 wolves in four to five packs. Maximum per-capita population growth occurred in the mid-1990s when there were approximately 135 wolves in the SLS population. To infer mechanisms behind the demographic Allee effect, we evaluated a potential component Allee effect using an individual-based spatially explicit model for gray wolves in the SLS region. Our simulations varied the perception neighborhoods for mate-finding and the mean dispersal distances of wolves. Simulation of wolves with long-distance dispersals and reduced perception neighborhoods were most likely to go extinct or experience Allee effects. These phenomena likely restricted population growth in early years of SLS wolf population recovery. PMID:26930665

Demographic and Component Allee Effects in Southern Lake Superior Gray Wolves.

PubMed

Stenglein, Jennifer L; Van Deelen, Timothy R

2016-01-01

Recovering populations of carnivores suffering Allee effects risk extinction because positive population growth requires a minimum number of cooperating individuals. Conservationists seldom consider these issues in planning for carnivore recovery because of data limitations, but ignoring Allee effects could lead to overly optimistic predictions for growth and underestimates of extinction risk. We used Bayesian splines to document a demographic Allee effect in the time series of gray wolf (Canis lupus) population counts (1980-2011) in the southern Lake Superior region (SLS, Wisconsin and the upper peninsula of Michigan, USA) in each of four measures of population growth. We estimated that the population crossed the Allee threshold at roughly 20 wolves in four to five packs. Maximum per-capita population growth occurred in the mid-1990s when there were approximately 135 wolves in the SLS population. To infer mechanisms behind the demographic Allee effect, we evaluated a potential component Allee effect using an individual-based spatially explicit model for gray wolves in the SLS region. Our simulations varied the perception neighborhoods for mate-finding and the mean dispersal distances of wolves. Simulation of wolves with long-distance dispersals and reduced perception neighborhoods were most likely to go extinct or experience Allee effects. These phenomena likely restricted population growth in early years of SLS wolf population recovery.

Determining median urinary iodine concentration that indicates adequate iodine intake at population level.

PubMed Central

Delange, François; de Benoist, Bruno; Burgi, Hans

2002-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Urinary iodine concentration is the prime indicator of nutritional iodine status and is used to evaluate population-based iodine supplementation. In 1994, WHO, UNICEF and ICCIDD recommended median urinary iodine concentrations for populations of 100- 200 micro g/l, assuming the 100 micro g/l threshold would limit concentrations <50 micro g/l to 100 micro g/l. The total population was 55 892, including 35 661 (64%) schoolchildren. Median urinary iodine concentrations were 111-540 (median 201) micro g/l for all populations, 100-199 micro g/l in 23 (48%) populations and >/=200 micro g/l in 25 (52%). The frequencies of values <50 micro g/l were 0-20.8 (mean 4.8%) overall and 7.2% and 2.5% in populations with medians of 100-199 micro g/l and >200 micro g/l, respectively. The frequency reached 20% only in two places where iodine had been supplemented for <2 years. CONCLUSION: The frequency of urinary iodine concentrations <50 micro g/l in populations with median urinary iodine concentrations >/=100 micro g/l has been overestimated. The threshold of 100 micro g/l does not need to be increased. In populations, median urinary iodine concentrations of 100-200 micro g/l indicate adequate iodine intake and optimal iodine nutrition. PMID:12219154

Hierarchical population monitoring of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Nevada and California—Identifying populations for management at the appropriate spatial scale

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Ricca, Mark A.; Wann, Gregory T.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Hanser, Steven E.; Doherty, Kevin E.; O'Donnell, Michael S.; Edmunds, David R.; Espinosa, Shawn P.

2017-08-10

Population ecologists have long recognized the importance of ecological scale in understanding processes that guide observed demographic patterns for wildlife species. However, directly incorporating spatial and temporal scale into monitoring strategies that detect whether trajectories are driven by local or regional factors is challenging and rarely implemented. Identifying the appropriate scale is critical to the development of management actions that can attenuate or reverse population declines. We describe a novel example of a monitoring framework for estimating annual rates of population change for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) within a hierarchical and spatially nested structure. Specifically, we conducted Bayesian analyses on a 17-year dataset (2000–2016) of lek counts in Nevada and northeastern California to estimate annual rates of population change, and compared trends across nested spatial scales. We identified leks and larger scale populations in immediate need of management, based on the occurrence of two criteria: (1) crossing of a destabilizing threshold designed to identify significant rates of population decline at a particular nested scale; and (2) crossing of decoupling thresholds designed to identify rates of population decline at smaller scales that decouple from rates of population change at a larger spatial scale. This approach establishes how declines affected by local disturbances can be separated from those operating at larger scales (for example, broad-scale wildfire and region-wide drought). Given the threshold output from our analysis, this adaptive management framework can be implemented readily and annually to facilitate responsive and effective actions for sage-grouse populations in the Great Basin. The rules of the framework can also be modified to identify populations responding positively to management action or demonstrating strong resilience to disturbance. Similar hierarchical approaches might be beneficial for other species occupying landscapes with heterogeneous disturbance and climatic regimes.

What is a food and what is a medicinal product in the European Union? Use of the benchmark dose (BMD) methodology to define a threshold for "pharmacological action".

PubMed

Lachenmeier, Dirk W; Steffen, Christian; el-Atma, Oliver; Maixner, Sibylle; Löbell-Behrends, Sigrid; Kohl-Himmelseher, Matthias

2012-11-01

The decision criterion for the demarcation between foods and medicinal products in the EU is the significant "pharmacological action". Based on six examples of substances with ambivalent status, the benchmark dose (BMD) method is evaluated to provide a threshold for pharmacological action. Using significant dose-response models from literature clinical trial data or epidemiology, the BMD values were 63mg/day for caffeine, 5g/day for alcohol, 6mg/day for lovastatin, 769mg/day for glucosamine sulfate, 151mg/day for Ginkgo biloba extract, and 0.4mg/day for melatonin. The examples for caffeine and alcohol validate the approach because intake above BMD clearly exhibits pharmacological action. Nevertheless, due to uncertainties in dose-response modelling as well as the need for additional uncertainty factors to consider differences in sensitivity within the human population, a "borderline range" on the dose-response curve remains. "Pharmacological action" has proven to be not very well suited as binary decision criterion between foods and medicinal product. The European legislator should rethink the definition of medicinal products, as the current situation based on complicated case-by-case decisions on pharmacological action leads to an unregulated market flooded with potentially illegal food supplements. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vehicle lift-off modelling and a new rollover detection criterion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mashadi, Behrooz; Mostaghimi, Hamid

2017-05-01

The modelling and development of a general criterion for the prediction of rollover threshold is the main purpose of this work. Vehicle dynamics models after the wheels lift-off and when the vehicle moves on the two wheels are derived and the governing equations are used to develop the rollover threshold. These models include the properties of the suspension and steering systems. In order to study the stability of motion, the steady-state solutions of the equations of motion are carried out. Based on the stability analyses, a new relation is obtained for the rollover threshold in terms of measurable response parameters. The presented criterion predicts the best time for the prevention of the vehicle rollover by applying a correcting moment. It is shown that the introduced threshold of vehicle rollover is a proper state of vehicle motion that is best for stabilising the vehicle with a low energy requirement.

Modeling Environmental Influences in the Psyllaephagus bliteus (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae)-Glycaspis brimblecombei (Hemiptera: Aphalaridae) Parasitoid-Host System.

PubMed

Margiotta, M; Bella, S; Buffa, F; Caleca, V; Floris, I; Giorno, V; Lo Verde, G; Rapisarda, C; Sasso, R; Suma, P; Tortorici, F; Laudonia, S

2017-04-01

Glycaspis brimblecombei Moore (Hemiptera: Aphalaridae) is an invasive psyllid introduced into the Mediterranean area, where it affects several species of Eucalyptus. Psyllaephagus bliteus Riek (Hymenoptera: Encyrtidae) is a specialized parasitoid of this psyllid that was accidentally introduced into Italy in 2011. We developed a model of this host-parasitoid system that accounts for the influence of environmental conditions on the G. brimblecombei population dynamics and P. bliteus parasitism rates in the natural ecosystem. The Lotka-Volterra-based model predicts non-constant host growth and parasitoid mortality rates in association with variation in environmental conditions. The model was tested by analyzing sampling data collected in Naples in 2011 (before the parasitoid was present) and defining several environmental patterns, termed Temperature-Rain or T-R patterns, which correspond to the host growth rate. A mean value of the host growth rate was assigned to each T-R pattern, as well as a variation of the parasitoid mortality rate based on temperature thresholds. The proposed model was applied in simulation tests related to T-R patterns carried out with a data series sampled between June 2014 and July 2015 in five Italian sites located in Campania, Lazio, Sicily, and Sardinia regions. The simulation results showed that the proposed model provides an accurate approximation of population trends, although oscillation details may not be apparent. Results predict a 64% reduction in G. brimblecombei population density owing to P. bliteus parasitoid activity. Our results are discussed with respect to features of the host-parasitoid interaction that could be exploited in future biological control programs. © The Authors 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dressler, Gunnar; Müller, Birgit; Frank, Karin; Kuhlicke, Christian

2016-10-01

Effective disaster management is a core feature for the protection of communities against natural disasters such as floods. Disaster management organizations (DMOs) are expected to contribute to ensuring this protection. However, what happens when their resources to cope with a flood are at stake or the intensity and frequency of the event exceeds their capacities? Many cities in the Free State of Saxony, Germany, were strongly hit by several floods in the last years and are additionally challenged by demographic change, with an ageing society and out-migration leading to population shrinkage in many parts of Saxony. Disaster management, which is mostly volunteer-based in Germany, is particularly affected by this change, leading to a loss of members. We propose an agent-based simulation model that acts as a "virtual lab" to explore the impact of various changes on disaster management performance. Using different scenarios we examine the impact of changes in personal resources of DMOs, their access to operation relevant information, flood characteristics as well as differences between geographic regions. A loss of DMOs and associated manpower caused by demographic change has the most profound impact on the performance. Especially in rural, upstream regions population decline in combination with very short lead times can put disaster management performance at risk.

On what basis are medical cost-effectiveness thresholds set? Clashing opinions and an absence of data: a systematic review.

PubMed

Cameron, David; Ubels, Jasper; Norström, Fredrik

2018-01-01

The amount a government should be willing to invest in adopting new medical treatments has long been under debate. With many countries using formal cost-effectiveness (C/E) thresholds when examining potential new treatments and ever-growing medical costs, accurately setting the level of a C/E threshold can be essential for an efficient healthcare system. The aim of this systematic review is to describe the prominent approaches to setting a C/E threshold, compile available national-level C/E threshold data and willingness-to-pay (WTP) data, and to discern whether associations exist between these values, gross domestic product (GDP) and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE). This review further examines current obstacles faced with the presently available data. A systematic review was performed to collect articles which have studied national C/E thresholds and willingness-to-pay (WTP) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in the general population. Associations between GDP, HALE, WTP, and C/E thresholds were analyzed with correlations. Seventeen countries were identified from nine unique sources to have formal C/E thresholds within our inclusion criteria. Thirteen countries from nine sources were identified to have WTP per QALY data within our inclusion criteria. Two possible associations were identified: C/E thresholds with HALE (quadratic correlation of 0.63), and C/E thresholds with GDP per capita (polynomial correlation of 0.84). However, these results are based on few observations and therefore firm conclusions cannot be made. Most national C/E thresholds identified in our review fall within the WHO's recommended range of one-to-three times GDP per capita. However, the quality and quantity of data available regarding national average WTP per QALY, opportunity costs, and C/E thresholds is poor in comparison to the importance of adequate investment in healthcare. There exists an obvious risk that countries might either over- or underinvest in healthcare if they base their decision-making process on erroneous presumptions or non-evidence-based methodologies. The commonly referred to value of 100,000$ USD per QALY may potentially have some basis.

On what basis are medical cost-effectiveness thresholds set? Clashing opinions and an absence of data: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Cameron, David; Ubels, Jasper; Norström, Fredrik

2018-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: The amount a government should be willing to invest in adopting new medical treatments has long been under debate. With many countries using formal cost-effectiveness (C/E) thresholds when examining potential new treatments and ever-growing medical costs, accurately setting the level of a C/E threshold can be essential for an efficient healthcare system. Objectives: The aim of this systematic review is to describe the prominent approaches to setting a C/E threshold, compile available national-level C/E threshold data and willingness-to-pay (WTP) data, and to discern whether associations exist between these values, gross domestic product (GDP) and health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE). This review further examines current obstacles faced with the presently available data. Methods: A systematic review was performed to collect articles which have studied national C/E thresholds and willingness-to-pay (WTP) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) in the general population. Associations between GDP, HALE, WTP, and C/E thresholds were analyzed with correlations. Results: Seventeen countries were identified from nine unique sources to have formal C/E thresholds within our inclusion criteria. Thirteen countries from nine sources were identified to have WTP per QALY data within our inclusion criteria. Two possible associations were identified: C/E thresholds with HALE (quadratic correlation of 0.63), and C/E thresholds with GDP per capita (polynomial correlation of 0.84). However, these results are based on few observations and therefore firm conclusions cannot be made. Conclusions: Most national C/E thresholds identified in our review fall within the WHO’s recommended range of one-to-three times GDP per capita. However, the quality and quantity of data available regarding national average WTP per QALY, opportunity costs, and C/E thresholds is poor in comparison to the importance of adequate investment in healthcare. There exists an obvious risk that countries might either over- or underinvest in healthcare if they base their decision-making process on erroneous presumptions or non-evidence-based methodologies. The commonly referred to value of 100,000$ USD per QALY may potentially have some basis. PMID:29564962

Habitat use and growth of the western painted crayfish Orconectes palmeri longimanus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dyer, Joseph J.; Mouser, Joshua; Brewer, Shannon K.

2016-01-01

Identifying ontogenetic shifts in habitat use by aquatic organisms is necessary for improving conservation strategies; however, our ability to designate life stages based on surrogate metrics (i.e., length) is questionable without validation. This study identified growth patterns of age-0 western painted crayfish Orconectes palmeri longimanus (Faxon, 1898) reared in the laboratory, provided support for field-based designations of age-0 lengths, and identified microhabitat factors important to adult and juvenile presence from field collections. Two growth periods of a laboratory crayfish population were described using a broken line model: a rapid, early-growth period (weeks 2-20, slope = 0.81 ± 0.03SE), and a slower, late-growth period (weeks 22-50, slope = 0.13 ± 0.03SE). A smoothed curve was generated to represent the size distribution of juveniles from our laboratory population to determine the probability that an age-0 crayfish from our laboratory population had a carapace length (CL) similar to that found in previous field studies using onset of maturity (22.4 mm CL). We determined that the probability of the age-0 crayfish in our summer laboratory population exceeding 22.4 mm CL was 0.06. The threshold between the lower 0.95 and upper 0.05 probabilities was 22.9 mm CL, confirming previous field observations of onset at maturity. We used this threshold to identify juveniles and adults from our field collections, and found that both life stages were positively associated with coarse substrate and negatively associated with water depth. Adults, however, were negatively related to gravel, whereas juveniles showed a positive relationship. This result is reflective of the relationship between crayfish body size and refuge use within the interstitial spaces of substrates, whereby adult crayfish are unable to seek refuge in the small interstitial spaces of gravel.

Infection Spread and Virus Release in Vitro in Cell Populations as a System with Percolation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ochoa, Juan G. Diaz

The comprehension of the innate immune system of cell populations is not only of interest to understand systems in vivo but also in vitro, for example, in the control of the release of viral particles for the production of vaccines. In this report I introduce a model, based on dynamical networks, that simulates the cell signaling responsible for this innate immune response and its effect on the infection spread and virus production. The central motivation is to represent a cell population that is constantly mixed in a bio-reactor where there is a cell-to-cell signaling of cytokines (which are proteins responsible for the activation of the antiviral response inside the cell). Such signaling allows the definition of clusters of linked immune cells. Additionally, depending on the density of links, it is possible to identify critical threshold parameters associated to a percolation phase transition. I show that the control of this antiviral response is equivalent to a percolation process.

The Impact of Community Based Health Insurance in Enhancing Better Accessibility and Lowering the Chance of Having Financial Catastrophe Due to Health Service Utilization: A Case Study of Savannakhet Province, Laos.

PubMed

Bodhisane, Somdeth; Pongpanich, Sathirakorn

2017-07-01

The Lao population mostly relies on out-of-pocket expenditures for health care services. This study aims to determine the role of community-based health insurance in making health care services accessible and in preventing financial catastrophe resulting from personal payment for inpatient services. A cross-sectional study design was applied. Data collection involved 126 insured and 126 uninsured households in identical study sites. Two logistic regression models were used to predict and compare the probability of hospitalization and financial catastrophe that occurred in both insured and uninsured households within the previous year. The findings show that insurance status does not significantly improve accessibility and financial protection against catastrophic expenditure. The reason is relatively simple, as catastrophic health expenditure refers to a total out-of-pocket payment equal to or more than 40% of household income minus subsistence. When household income declines as a result of inability to work due to illness, the 40% threshold is quickly reached. Despite this, results suggest that insured households are not significantly better off under community-based health insurance. However, compared to uninsured households, insured households do have better accessibility and a lower probability of reaching the financial catastrophe threshold.

A cost-effectiveness evaluation of hospital discharge counseling by pharmacists.

PubMed

Chinthammit, Chanadda; Armstrong, Edward P; Warholak, Terri L

2012-04-01

This study estimated the cost-effectiveness of pharmacist discharge counseling on medication-related morbidity in both the high-risk elderly and general US population. A cost-effectiveness decision analytic model was developed using a health care system perspective based on published clinical trials. Costs included direct medical costs, and the effectiveness unit was patients discharged without suffering a subsequent adverse drug event. A systematic review of published studies was conducted to estimate variable probabilities in the cost-effectiveness model. To test the robustness of the results, a second-order probabilistic sensitivity analysis (Monte Carlo simulation) was used to run 10 000 cases through the model sampling across all distributions simultaneously. Pharmacist counseling at hospital discharge provided a small, but statistically significant, clinical improvement at a similar overall cost. Pharmacist counseling was cost saving in approximately 48% of scenarios and in the remaining scenarios had a low willingness-to-pay threshold for all scenarios being cost-effective. In addition, discharge counseling was more cost-effective in the high-risk elderly population compared to the general population. This cost-effectiveness analysis suggests that discharge counseling by pharmacists is quite cost-effective and estimated to be cost saving in over 48% of cases. High-risk elderly patients appear to especially benefit from these pharmacist services.

The Impact of Climate Change on Ozone-Related Mortality in Sydney

PubMed Central

Physick, William; Cope, Martin; Lee, Sunhee

2014-01-01

Coupled global, regional and chemical transport models are now being used with relative-risk functions to determine the impact of climate change on human health. Studies have been carried out for global and regional scales, and in our paper we examine the impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality at the local scale across an urban metropolis (Sydney, Australia). Using three coupled models, with a grid spacing of 3 km for the chemical transport model (CTM), and a mortality relative risk function of 1.0006 per 1 ppb increase in daily maximum 1-hour ozone concentration, we evaluated the change in ozone concentrations and mortality between decades 1996–2005 and 2051–2060. The global model was run with the A2 emissions scenario. As there is currently uncertainty regarding a threshold concentration below which ozone does not impact on mortality, we calculated mortality estimates for the three daily maximum 1-hr ozone concentration thresholds of 0, 25 and 40 ppb. The mortality increase for 2051–2060 ranges from 2.3% for a 0 ppb threshold to 27.3% for a 40 ppb threshold, although the numerical increases differ little. Our modeling approach is able to identify the variation in ozone-related mortality changes at a suburban scale, estimating that climate change could lead to an additional 55 to 65 deaths across Sydney in the decade 2051–2060. Interestingly, the largest increases do not correspond spatially to the largest ozone increases or the densest population centres. The distribution pattern of changes does not seem to vary with threshold value, while the magnitude only varies slightly. PMID:24419047

Public Release of Estimated Impact-Based Earthquake Alerts - An Update to the U.S. Geological Survey PAGER System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wald, D. J.; Jaiswal, K. S.; Marano, K.; Hearne, M.; Earle, P. S.; So, E.; Garcia, D.; Hayes, G. P.; Mathias, S.; Applegate, D.; Bausch, D.

2010-12-01

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has begun publicly releasing earthquake alerts for significant earthquakes around the globe based on estimates of potential casualties and economic losses. These estimates should significantly enhance the utility of the USGS Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system that has been providing estimated ShakeMaps and computing population exposures to specific shaking intensities since 2007. Quantifying earthquake impacts and communicating loss estimates (and their uncertainties) to the public has been the culmination of several important new and evolving components of the system. First, the operational PAGER system now relies on empirically-based loss models that account for estimated shaking hazard, population exposure, and employ country-specific fatality and economic loss functions derived using analyses of losses due to recent and past earthquakes. In some countries, our empirical loss models are informed in part by PAGER’s semi-empirical and analytical loss models, and building exposure and vulnerability data sets, all of which are being developed in parallel to the empirical approach. Second, human and economic loss information is now portrayed as a supplement to existing intensity/exposure content on both PAGER summary alert (available via cell phone/email) messages and web pages. Loss calculations also include estimates of the economic impact with respect to the country’s gross domestic product. Third, in order to facilitate rapid and appropriate earthquake responses based on our probable loss estimates, in early 2010 we proposed a four-level Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS). Instead of simply issuing median estimates for losses—which can be easily misunderstood and misused—this scale provides ranges of losses from which potential responders can gauge expected overall impact from strong shaking. EIS is based on two complementary criteria: the estimated cost of damage, which is most suitable for U.S. domestic events; and estimated ranges of fatalities, which are generally more appropriate for global events, particularly in earthquake-vulnerable countries. Alert levels are characterized by alerts of green (little or no impact), yellow (regional impact and response), orange (national-scale impact and response), and red (international response). Corresponding fatality thresholds for yellow, orange, and red alert levels are 1, 100, and 1000, respectively. For damage impact, yellow, orange, and red thresholds are triggered when estimated US dollar losses reach 1 million, 100 million, and 1 billion+ levels, respectively. Finally, alerting protocols now explicitly support EIS-based alerts. Critical users can receive PAGER alerts i) based on the EIS-based alert level, in addition to or as an alternative to magnitude and population/intensity exposure-based alerts, and ii) optionally, based on user-selected regions of the world. The essence of PAGER’s impact-based alerting is that actionable loss information is now available in the immediate aftermath of significant earthquakes worldwide based on quantifiable, albeit uncertain, loss estimates provided by the USGS.

Fundamental properties of cooperative contagion processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Li; Ghanbarnejad, Fakhteh; Brockmann, Dirk

2017-10-01

We investigate the effects of cooperativity between contagion processes that spread and persist in a host population. We propose and analyze a dynamical model in which individuals that are affected by one transmissible agent A exhibit a higher than baseline propensity of being affected by a second agent B and vice versa. The model is a natural extension of the traditional susceptible-infected-susceptible model used for modeling single contagion processes. We show that cooperativity changes the dynamics of the system considerably when cooperativity is strong. The system exhibits discontinuous phase transitions not observed in single agent contagion, multi-stability, a separation of the traditional epidemic threshold into different thresholds for inception and extinction as well as hysteresis. These properties are robust and are corroborated by stochastic simulations on lattices and generic network topologies. Finally, we investigate wave propagation and transients in a spatially extended version of the model and show that especially for intermediate values of baseline reproduction ratios the system is characterized by various types of wave-front speeds. The system can exhibit spatially heterogeneous stationary states for some parameters and negative front speeds (receding wave fronts). The two agent model can be employed as a starting point for more complex contagion processes, involving several interacting agents, a model framework particularly suitable for modeling the spread and dynamics of microbiological ecosystems in host populations.

Testing the hypothesis that treatment can eliminate HIV: a nationwide, population-based study of the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men.

PubMed

Okano, Justin T; Robbins, Danielle; Palk, Laurence; Gerstoft, Jan; Obel, Niels; Blower, Sally

2016-07-01

Worldwide, approximately 35 million individuals are infected with HIV; about 25 million of these live in sub-Saharan Africa. WHO proposes using treatment as prevention (TasP) to eliminate HIV. Treatment suppresses viral load, decreasing the probability an individual transmits HIV. The elimination threshold is one new HIV infection per 1000 individuals. Here, we test the hypothesis that TasP can substantially reduce epidemics and eliminate HIV. We estimate the impact of TasP, between 1996 and 2013, on the Danish HIV epidemic in men who have sex with men (MSM), an epidemic UNAIDS has identified as a priority for elimination. We use a CD4-staged Bayesian back-calculation approach to estimate incidence, and the hidden epidemic (the number of HIV-infected undiagnosed MSM). To develop the back-calculation model, we use data from an ongoing nationwide population-based study: the Danish HIV Cohort Study. Incidence, and the hidden epidemic, decreased substantially after treatment was introduced in 1996. By 2013, incidence was close to the elimination threshold: 1·4 (median, 95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI] 0·4-2·1) new HIV infections per 1000 MSM and there were only 617 (264-858) undiagnosed MSM. Decreasing incidence and increasing treatment coverage were highly correlated; a treatment threshold effect was apparent. Our study is the first to show that TasP can substantially reduce a country's HIV epidemic, and bring it close to elimination. However, we have shown the effectiveness of TasP under optimal conditions: very high treatment coverage, and exceptionally high (98%) viral suppression rate. Unless these extremely challenging conditions can be met in sub-Saharan Africa, the WHO's global elimination strategy is unlikely to succeed. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Space-time analysis of Down syndrome: results consistent with transient pre-disposing contagious agent.

PubMed

McNally, Richard J Q; Rankin, Judith; Shirley, Mark D F; Rushton, Stephen P; Pless-Mulloli, Tanja

2008-10-01

Whilst maternal age is an established risk factor for Patau syndrome (trisomy 13), Edwards syndrome (trisomy 18) and Down syndrome (trisomy 21), the aetiology and contribution of genetic and environmental factors remains unclear. We analysed for space-time clustering using high quality fully population-based data from a geographically defined region. The study included all cases of Patau, Edwards and Down syndrome, delivered during 1985-2003 and resident in the former Northern Region of England, including terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. We applied the K-function test for space-time clustering with fixed thresholds of close in space and time using residential addresses at time of delivery. The Knox test was used to indicate the range over which the clustering effect occurred. Tests were repeated using nearest neighbour (NN) thresholds to adjust for variable population density. The study analysed 116 cases of Patau syndrome, 240 cases of Edwards syndrome and 1084 cases of Down syndrome. There was evidence of space-time clustering for Down syndrome (fixed threshold of close in space: P = 0.01, NN threshold: P = 0.02), but little or no clustering for Patau (P = 0.57, P = 0.19) or Edwards (P = 0.37, P = 0.06) syndromes. Clustering of Down syndrome was associated with cases from more densely populated areas and evidence of clustering persisted when cases were restricted to maternal age <40 years. The highly novel space-time clustering for Down syndrome suggests an aetiological role for transient environmental factors, such as infections.

A probabilistic Poisson-based model accounts for an extensive set of absolute auditory threshold measurements.

PubMed

Heil, Peter; Matysiak, Artur; Neubauer, Heinrich

2017-09-01

Thresholds for detecting sounds in quiet decrease with increasing sound duration in every species studied. The neural mechanisms underlying this trade-off, often referred to as temporal integration, are not fully understood. Here, we probe the human auditory system with a large set of tone stimuli differing in duration, shape of the temporal amplitude envelope, duration of silent gaps between bursts, and frequency. Duration was varied by varying the plateau duration of plateau-burst (PB) stimuli, the duration of the onsets and offsets of onset-offset (OO) stimuli, and the number of identical bursts of multiple-burst (MB) stimuli. Absolute thresholds for a large number of ears (>230) were measured using a 3-interval-3-alternative forced choice (3I-3AFC) procedure. Thresholds decreased with increasing sound duration in a manner that depended on the temporal envelope. Most commonly, thresholds for MB stimuli were highest followed by thresholds for OO and PB stimuli of corresponding durations. Differences in the thresholds for MB and OO stimuli and in the thresholds for MB and PB stimuli, however, varied widely across ears, were negative in some ears, and were tightly correlated. We show that the variation and correlation of MB-OO and MB-PB threshold differences are linked to threshold microstructure, which affects the relative detectability of the sidebands of the MB stimuli and affects estimates of the bandwidth of auditory filters. We also found that thresholds for MB stimuli increased with increasing duration of the silent gaps between bursts. We propose a new model and show that it accurately accounts for our results and does so considerably better than a leaky-integrator-of-intensity model and a probabilistic model proposed by others. Our model is based on the assumption that sensory events are generated by a Poisson point process with a low rate in the absence of stimulation and higher, time-varying rates in the presence of stimulation. A subject in a 3I-3AFC task is assumed to choose the interval in which the greatest number of events occurred or randomly chooses among intervals which are tied for the greatest number of events. The subject is further assumed to count events over the duration of an evaluation interval that has the same timing and duration as the expected stimulus. The increase in the rate of the events caused by stimulation is proportional to the time-varying amplitude envelope of the bandpass-filtered signal raised to an exponent. We find the exponent to be about 3, consistent with our previous studies. This challenges models that are based on the assumption of the integration of a neural response that is directly proportional to the stimulus amplitude or proportional to its square (i.e., proportional to the stimulus intensity or power). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adding bevacizumab to single agent chemotherapy for the treatment of platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer: A cost effectiveness analysis of the AURELIA trial.

PubMed

Wysham, Weiya Z; Schaffer, Elisabeth M; Coles, Theresa; Roque, Dario R; Wheeler, Stephanie B; Kim, Kenneth H

2017-05-01

AURELIA, a randomized phase III trial of adding bevacizumab (B) to single agent chemotherapy (CT) for the treatment of platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer, demonstrated improved progression free survival (PFS) in the B+CT arm compared to CT alone. We aimed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of adding B to CT in the treatment of platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer. A decision tree model was constructed to evaluate the cost effectiveness of adding bevacizumab (B) to single agent chemotherapy (CT) based on the arms of the AURELIA trial. Costs, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and progression free survival (PFS) were modeled over fifteen months. Model inputs were extracted from published literature and public sources. Incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per QALY gained and ICERs per progression free life year saved (PF-LYS) were calculated. One-way sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the robustness of results. The ICER associated with B+CT is $410,455 per QALY gained and $217,080 per PF-LYS. At a willingness to pay (WTP) threshold of $50,000/QALY, adding B to single agent CT is not cost effective for this patient population. Even at a WTP threshold of $100,000/QALY, B+CT is not cost effective. These findings are robust to sensitivity analyses. Despite gains in QALY and PFS, the addition of B to single agent CT for treatment of platinum-resistant recurrent ovarian cancer is not cost effective. Benefits, risks, and costs associated with treatment should be taken into consideration when prescribing chemotherapy for this patient population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The population cost-effectiveness of delivering universal and indicated school-based interventions to prevent the onset of major depression among youth in Australia.

PubMed

Lee, Y Y; Barendregt, J J; Stockings, E A; Ferrari, A J; Whiteford, H A; Patton, G A; Mihalopoulos, C

2017-10-01

School-based psychological interventions encompass: universal interventions targeting youth in the general population; and indicated interventions targeting youth with subthreshold depression. This study aimed to: (1) examine the population cost-effectiveness of delivering universal and indicated prevention interventions to youth in the population aged 11-17 years via primary and secondary schools in Australia; and (2) compare the comparative cost-effectiveness of delivering these interventions using face-to-face and internet-based delivery mechanisms. We reviewed literature on the prevention of depression to identify all interventions targeting youth that would be suitable for implementation in Australia and had evidence of efficacy to support analysis. From this, we found evidence of effectiveness for the following intervention types: universal prevention involving group-based psychological interventions delivered to all participating school students; and indicated prevention involving group-based psychological interventions delivered to students with subthreshold depression. We constructed a Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of delivering universal and indicated interventions in the population relative to a 'no intervention' comparator over a 10-year time horizon. A disease model was used to simulate epidemiological transitions between three health states (i.e., healthy, diseased and dead). Intervention effect sizes were based on meta-analyses of randomised control trial data identified in the aforementioned review; while health benefits were measured as Disability-adjusted Life Years (DALYs) averted attributable to reductions in depression incidence. Net costs of delivering interventions were calculated using relevant Australian data. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted to test model assumptions. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were measured in 2013 Australian dollars per DALY averted; with costs and benefits discounted at 3%. Universal and indicated psychological interventions delivered through face-to-face modalities had ICERs below a threshold of $50 000 per DALY averted. That is, $7350 per DALY averted (95% uncertainty interval (UI): dominates - 23 070) for universal prevention, and $19 550 per DALY averted (95% UI: 3081-56 713) for indicated prevention. Baseline ICERs were generally robust to changes in model assumptions. We conducted a sensitivity analysis which found that internet-delivered prevention interventions were highly cost-effective when assuming intervention effect sizes of 100 and 50% relative to effect sizes observed for face-to-face delivered interventions. These results should, however, be interpreted with caution due to the paucity of data. School-based psychological interventions appear to be cost-effective. However, realising efficiency gains in the population is ultimately dependent on ensuring successful system-level implementation.

The growth threshold conjecture: a theoretical framework for understanding T-cell tolerance.

PubMed

Arias, Clemente F; Herrero, Miguel A; Cuesta, José A; Acosta, Francisco J; Fernández-Arias, Cristina

2015-07-01

Adaptive immune responses depend on the capacity of T cells to target specific antigens. As similar antigens can be expressed by pathogens and host cells, the question naturally arises of how can T cells discriminate friends from foes. In this work, we suggest that T cells tolerate cells whose proliferation rates remain below a permitted threshold. Our proposal relies on well-established facts about T-cell dynamics during acute infections: T-cell populations are elastic (they expand and contract) and they display inertia (contraction is delayed relative to antigen removal). By modelling inertia and elasticity, we show that tolerance to slow-growing populations can emerge as a population-scale feature of T cells. This result suggests a theoretical framework to understand immune tolerance that goes beyond the self versus non-self dichotomy. It also accounts for currently unexplained observations, such as the paradoxical tolerance to slow-growing pathogens or the presence of self-reactive T cells in the organism.

Pathways to extinction: beyond the error threshold.

PubMed

Manrubia, Susanna C; Domingo, Esteban; Lázaro, Ester

2010-06-27

Since the introduction of the quasispecies and the error catastrophe concepts for molecular evolution by Eigen and their subsequent application to viral populations, increased mutagenesis has become a common strategy to cause the extinction of viral infectivity. Nevertheless, the high complexity of virus populations has shown that viral extinction can occur through several other pathways apart from crossing an error threshold. Increases in the mutation rate enhance the appearance of defective forms and promote the selection of mechanisms that are able to counteract the accelerated appearance of mutations. Current models of viral evolution take into account more realistic scenarios that consider compensatory and lethal mutations, a highly redundant genotype-to-phenotype map, rough fitness landscapes relating phenotype and fitness, and where phenotype is described as a set of interdependent traits. Further, viral populations cannot be understood without specifying the characteristics of the environment where they evolve and adapt. Altogether, it turns out that the pathways through which viral quasispecies go extinct are multiple and diverse.

Evaluation of a threshold-based model of fatigue in gamma titanium aluminide following impact damage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, Trevor Scott

2000-10-01

Recent interest in gamma titanium aluminide (gamma-TiAl) for use in gas turbine engine applications has centered on the low density and good elevated temperature strength retention of gamma-TiAl compared to current materials. However, the relatively low ductility and fracture toughness of gamma-TiAl leads to serious concerns regarding its ability to resist impact damage. Furthermore, the limited fatigue crack growth resistance of gamma-TiAl means that the potential for fatigue failures resulting from impact damage is real if a damage tolerant design approach is used. A threshold-based design approach may be required if fatigue crack growth from potential impact sites is to be avoided. The objective of the present research is to examine the feasibility of a threshold-based approach for the design of a gamma-TiAl low-pressure turbine blade subjected to both assembly-related impact damage and foreign object damage. Specimens of three different gamma-TiAl alloys were damaged in such a way as to simulate anticipated impact damage for a turbine blade. Step-loading fatigue tests were conducted at both room temperature and 600°C. In terms of the assembly-related impact damage, the results indicate that there is reasonably good agreement between the threshold-based predictions of the fatigue strength of damaged specimens and the measured data. However, some discrepancies do exist. In the case of very lightly damaged specimens, prediction of the resulting fatigue strength requires that a very conservative small-crack fatigue threshold be used. Consequently, the allowable design conditions are significantly reduced. For severely damaged specimens, an analytical approach found that the potential effects of residual stresses may be related to the discrepancies observed between the threshold-based model and measured fatigue strength data. In the case of foreign object damage, a good correlation was observed between impacts resulting in large cracks and a long-crack threshold-based approximation of the fatigue strength. However, in the case of smaller impact sites, a lower small-crack threshold appears to be more appropriate. In some cases, a complete perforation of the material, or blowout, would result from the impact. Prediction of the reduction in fatigue strength resulting from this form of damage required the use of a stress concentration factor, rather than a threshold-based prediction.

Enhanced Sensitivity to Rapid Input Fluctuations by Nonlinear Threshold Dynamics in Neocortical Pyramidal Neurons.

PubMed

Mensi, Skander; Hagens, Olivier; Gerstner, Wulfram; Pozzorini, Christian

2016-02-01

The way in which single neurons transform input into output spike trains has fundamental consequences for network coding. Theories and modeling studies based on standard Integrate-and-Fire models implicitly assume that, in response to increasingly strong inputs, neurons modify their coding strategy by progressively reducing their selective sensitivity to rapid input fluctuations. Combining mathematical modeling with in vitro experiments, we demonstrate that, in L5 pyramidal neurons, the firing threshold dynamics adaptively adjust the effective timescale of somatic integration in order to preserve sensitivity to rapid signals over a broad range of input statistics. For that, a new Generalized Integrate-and-Fire model featuring nonlinear firing threshold dynamics and conductance-based adaptation is introduced that outperforms state-of-the-art neuron models in predicting the spiking activity of neurons responding to a variety of in vivo-like fluctuating currents. Our model allows for efficient parameter extraction and can be analytically mapped to a Generalized Linear Model in which both the input filter--describing somatic integration--and the spike-history filter--accounting for spike-frequency adaptation--dynamically adapt to the input statistics, as experimentally observed. Overall, our results provide new insights on the computational role of different biophysical processes known to underlie adaptive coding in single neurons and support previous theoretical findings indicating that the nonlinear dynamics of the firing threshold due to Na+-channel inactivation regulate the sensitivity to rapid input fluctuations.

Network-level reproduction number and extinction threshold for vector-borne diseases.

PubMed

Xue, Ling; Scoglio, Caterina

2015-06-01

The basic reproduction number of deterministic models is an essential quantity to predict whether an epidemic will spread or not. Thresholds for disease extinction contribute crucial knowledge of disease control, elimination, and mitigation of infectious diseases. Relationships between basic reproduction numbers of two deterministic network-based ordinary differential equation vector-host models, and extinction thresholds of corresponding stochastic continuous-time Markov chain models are derived under some assumptions. Numerical simulation results for malaria and Rift Valley fever transmission on heterogeneous networks are in agreement with analytical results without any assumptions, reinforcing that the relationships may always exist and proposing a mathematical problem for proving existence of the relationships in general. Moreover, numerical simulations show that the basic reproduction number does not monotonically increase or decrease with the extinction threshold. Consistent trends of extinction probability observed through numerical simulations provide novel insights into mitigation strategies to increase the disease extinction probability. Research findings may improve understandings of thresholds for disease persistence in order to control vector-borne diseases.

Survival of translocated sharp-tailed grouse: Temporal threshold and age effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mathews, Steven; Coates, Peter S.; Delehanty, David J.

2016-01-01

Context: The Columbian sharp-tailed grouse (Tympanuchus phasianellus columbianus) is a subspecies of conservation concern in the western United States, currently occupying ≤10% of its historic range. Land and management agencies are employing translocation techniques to restore Columbian sharp-tailed grouse (CSTG) populations. However, establishing self-sustaining populations by translocating grouse often is unsuccessful, owing, in part, to low survivorship of translocated grouse following release.Aims: We measured and modelled patterns of CSTG mortality for 150 days following translocation into historic range, to better understand patterns and causes of success or failure in conservation efforts to re-establish grouse populations.Methods: We conducted two independent multi-year translocations and evaluated individual and temporal factors associated with CSTG survival up to 150 days following their release. Both translocations were reintroduction attempts in Nevada, USA, to establish viable populations of CSTG into their historic range.Key results: We observed a clear temporal threshold in survival probability, with CSTG mortality substantially higher during the first 50 days following release than during the subsequent 100 days. Additionally, translocated yearling grouse exhibited higher overall survival (0.669 ± 0.062) than did adults (0.420 ± 0.052) across the 150-day period and higher survival than adults both before and after the 50-day temporal threshold.Conclusions: Translocated CSTG are especially vulnerable to mortality for 50 days following release, whereas translocated yearling grouse are more resistant to mortality than are adult grouse. On the basis of the likelihood of survival, yearling CSTG are better candidates for population restoration through translocation than are adult grouse.Implications: Management actions that ameliorate mortality factors for 50 days following translocation and translocations that employ yearling grouse will increase the likelihood of population establishment.

Epidemic thresholds for bipartite networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hernández, D. G.; Risau-Gusman, S.

2013-11-01

It is well known that sexually transmitted diseases (STD) spread across a network of human sexual contacts. This network is most often bipartite, as most STD are transmitted between men and women. Even though network models in epidemiology have quite a long history now, there are few general results about bipartite networks. One of them is the simple dependence, predicted using the mean field approximation, between the epidemic threshold and the average and variance of the degree distribution of the network. Here we show that going beyond this approximation can lead to qualitatively different results that are supported by numerical simulations. One of the new features, that can be relevant for applications, is the existence of a critical value for the infectivity of each population, below which no epidemics can arise, regardless of the value of the infectivity of the other population.

Competing for Attention in Social Media under Information Overload Conditions.

PubMed

Feng, Ling; Hu, Yanqing; Li, Baowen; Stanley, H Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo; Braunstein, Lidia A

2015-01-01

Modern social media are becoming overloaded with information because of the rapidly-expanding number of information feeds. We analyze the user-generated content in Sina Weibo, and find evidence that the spread of popular messages often follow a mechanism that differs from the spread of disease, in contrast to common belief. In this mechanism, an individual with more friends needs more repeated exposures to spread further the information. Moreover, our data suggest that for certain messages the chance of an individual to share the message is proportional to the fraction of its neighbours who shared it with him/her, which is a result of competition for attention. We model this process using a fractional susceptible infected recovered (FSIR) model, where the infection probability of a node is proportional to its fraction of infected neighbors. Our findings have dramatic implications for information contagion. For example, using the FSIR model we find that real-world social networks have a finite epidemic threshold in contrast to the zero threshold in disease epidemic models. This means that when individuals are overloaded with excess information feeds, the information either reaches out the population if it is above the critical epidemic threshold, or it would never be well received.

Competing for Attention in Social Media under Information Overload Conditions

PubMed Central

Feng, Ling; Hu, Yanqing; Li, Baowen; Stanley, H. Eugene; Havlin, Shlomo; Braunstein, Lidia A.

2015-01-01

Modern social media are becoming overloaded with information because of the rapidly-expanding number of information feeds. We analyze the user-generated content in Sina Weibo, and find evidence that the spread of popular messages often follow a mechanism that differs from the spread of disease, in contrast to common belief. In this mechanism, an individual with more friends needs more repeated exposures to spread further the information. Moreover, our data suggest that for certain messages the chance of an individual to share the message is proportional to the fraction of its neighbours who shared it with him/her, which is a result of competition for attention. We model this process using a fractional susceptible infected recovered (FSIR) model, where the infection probability of a node is proportional to its fraction of infected neighbors. Our findings have dramatic implications for information contagion. For example, using the FSIR model we find that real-world social networks have a finite epidemic threshold in contrast to the zero threshold in disease epidemic models. This means that when individuals are overloaded with excess information feeds, the information either reaches out the population if it is above the critical epidemic threshold, or it would never be well received. PMID:26161956

Effects of heterogeneous convergence rate on consensus in opinion dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Changwei; Dai, Qionglin; Han, Wenchen; Feng, Yuee; Cheng, Hongyan; Li, Haihong

2018-06-01

The Deffuant model has attracted much attention in the study of opinion dynamics. Here, we propose a modified version by introducing into the model a heterogeneous convergence rate which is dependent on the opinion difference between interacting agents and a tunable parameter κ. We study the effects of heterogeneous convergence rate on consensus by investigating the probability of complete consensus, the size of the largest opinion cluster, the number of opinion clusters, and the relaxation time. We find that the decrease of the convergence rate is favorable to decreasing the confidence threshold for the population to always reach complete consensus, and there exists optimal κ resulting in the minimal bounded confidence threshold. Moreover, we find that there exists a window before the threshold of confidence in which complete consensus may be reached with a nonzero probability when κ is not too large. We also find that, within a certain confidence range, decreasing the convergence rate will reduce the relaxation time, which is somewhat counterintuitive.

Combining the Finite Element Method with Structural Connectome-based Analysis for Modeling Neurotrauma:Connectome Neurotrauma Mechanics

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-16

death threshold. Using an injury threshold of 18% strain, 161 edges were removed. Watts and Strogatz [66] define the small-world network based on the...NeuroImage 52: 1059–1069. 65. Latora V, Marchiori M (2001) Efficient behavior of small-world networks. Phys Rev Lett 87: 198701. 66. Watts DJ, Strogatz SH

Sign language spotting with a threshold model based on conditional random fields.

PubMed

Yang, Hee-Deok; Sclaroff, Stan; Lee, Seong-Whan

2009-07-01

Sign language spotting is the task of detecting and recognizing signs in a signed utterance, in a set vocabulary. The difficulty of sign language spotting is that instances of signs vary in both motion and appearance. Moreover, signs appear within a continuous gesture stream, interspersed with transitional movements between signs in a vocabulary and nonsign patterns (which include out-of-vocabulary signs, epentheses, and other movements that do not correspond to signs). In this paper, a novel method for designing threshold models in a conditional random field (CRF) model is proposed which performs an adaptive threshold for distinguishing between signs in a vocabulary and nonsign patterns. A short-sign detector, a hand appearance-based sign verification method, and a subsign reasoning method are included to further improve sign language spotting accuracy. Experiments demonstrate that our system can spot signs from continuous data with an 87.0 percent spotting rate and can recognize signs from isolated data with a 93.5 percent recognition rate versus 73.5 percent and 85.4 percent, respectively, for CRFs without a threshold model, short-sign detection, subsign reasoning, and hand appearance-based sign verification. Our system can also achieve a 15.0 percent sign error rate (SER) from continuous data and a 6.4 percent SER from isolated data versus 76.2 percent and 14.5 percent, respectively, for conventional CRFs.

Vaccination intervention on epidemic dynamics in networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Zhou, Tao

2013-02-01

Vaccination is an important measure available for preventing or reducing the spread of infectious diseases. In this paper, an epidemic model including susceptible, infected, and imperfectly vaccinated compartments is studied on Watts-Strogatz small-world, Barabási-Albert scale-free, and random scale-free networks. The epidemic threshold and prevalence are analyzed. For small-world networks, the effective vaccination intervention is suggested and its influence on the threshold and prevalence is analyzed. For scale-free networks, the threshold is found to be strongly dependent both on the effective vaccination rate and on the connectivity distribution. Moreover, so long as vaccination is effective, it can linearly decrease the epidemic prevalence in small-world networks, whereas for scale-free networks it acts exponentially. These results can help in adopting pragmatic treatment upon diseases in structured populations.

Observation of Critical-Gradient Behavior in Alfvén-Eigenmode-Induced Fast-Ion Transport.

PubMed

Collins, C S; Heidbrink, W W; Austin, M E; Kramer, G J; Pace, D C; Petty, C C; Stagner, L; Van Zeeland, M A; White, R B; Zhu, Y B

2016-03-04

Experiments in the DIII-D tokamak show that fast-ion transport suddenly becomes stiff above a critical threshold in the presence of many overlapping small-amplitude Alfvén eigenmodes (AEs). The threshold is phase-space dependent and occurs when particle orbits become stochastic due to resonances with AEs. Above threshold, equilibrium fast-ion density profiles are unchanged despite increased drive, and intermittent fast-ion losses are observed. Fast-ion Dα spectroscopy indicates radially localized transport of the copassing population at radii that correspond to the location of midcore AEs. The observation of stiff fast-ion transport suggests that reduced models can be used to effectively predict alpha profiles, beam ion profiles, and losses to aid in the design of optimized scenarios for future burning plasma devices.

Neurocomputational account of memory and perception: Thresholded and graded signals in the hippocampus.

PubMed

Elfman, Kane W; Aly, Mariam; Yonelinas, Andrew P

2014-12-01

Recent evidence suggests that the hippocampus, a region critical for long-term memory, also supports certain forms of high-level visual perception. A seemingly paradoxical finding is that, unlike the thresholded hippocampal signals associated with memory, the hippocampus produces graded, strength-based signals in perception. This article tests a neurocomputational model of the hippocampus, based on the complementary learning systems framework, to determine if the same model can account for both memory and perception, and whether it produces the appropriate thresholded and strength-based signals in these two types of tasks. The simulations showed that the hippocampus, and most prominently the CA1 subfield, produced graded signals when required to discriminate between highly similar stimuli in a perception task, but generated thresholded patterns of activity in recognition memory. A threshold was observed in recognition memory because pattern completion occurred for only some trials and completely failed to occur for others; conversely, in perception, pattern completion always occurred because of the high degree of item similarity. These results offer a neurocomputational account of the distinct hippocampal signals associated with perception and memory, and are broadly consistent with proposals that CA1 functions as a comparator of expected versus perceived events. We conclude that the hippocampal computations required for high-level perceptual discrimination are congruous with current neurocomputational models that account for recognition memory, and fit neatly into a broader description of the role of the hippocampus for the processing of complex relational information. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The role of decision analytic modeling in the health economic assessment of spinal intervention.

PubMed

Edwards, Natalie C; Skelly, Andrea C; Ziewacz, John E; Cahill, Kevin; McGirt, Matthew J

2014-10-15

Narrative review. To review the common tenets, strengths, and weaknesses of decision modeling for health economic assessment and to review the use of decision modeling in the spine literature to date. For the majority of spinal interventions, well-designed prospective, randomized, pragmatic cost-effectiveness studies that address the specific decision-in-need are lacking. Decision analytic modeling allows for the estimation of cost-effectiveness based on data available to date. Given the rising demands for proven value in spine care, the use of decision analytic modeling is rapidly increasing by clinicians and policy makers. This narrative review discusses the general components of decision analytic models, how decision analytic models are populated and the trade-offs entailed, makes recommendations for how users of spine intervention decision models might go about appraising the models, and presents an overview of published spine economic models. A proper, integrated, clinical, and economic critical appraisal is necessary in the evaluation of the strength of evidence provided by a modeling evaluation. As is the case with clinical research, all options for collecting health economic or value data are not without their limitations and flaws. There is substantial heterogeneity across the 20 spine intervention health economic modeling studies summarized with respect to study design, models used, reporting, and general quality. There is sparse evidence for populating spine intervention models. Results mostly showed that interventions were cost-effective based on $100,000/quality-adjusted life-year threshold. Spine care providers, as partners with their health economic colleagues, have unique clinical expertise and perspectives that are critical to interpret the strengths and weaknesses of health economic models. Health economic models must be critically appraised for both clinical validity and economic quality before altering health care policy, payment strategies, or patient care decisions. 4.

Development of an anaerobic threshold (HRLT, HRVT) estimation equation using the heart rate threshold (HRT) during the treadmill incremental exercise test

PubMed Central

Ham, Joo-ho; Park, Hun-Young; Kim, Youn-ho; Bae, Sang-kon; Ko, Byung-hoon

2017-01-01

[Purpose] The purpose of this study was to develop a regression model to estimate the heart rate at the lactate threshold (HRLT) and the heart rate at the ventilatory threshold (HRVT) using the heart rate threshold (HRT), and to test the validity of the regression model. [Methods] We performed a graded exercise test with a treadmill in 220 normal individuals (men: 112, women: 108) aged 20–59 years. HRT, HRLT, and HRVT were measured in all subjects. A regression model was developed to estimate HRLT and HRVT using HRT with 70% of the data (men: 79, women: 76) through randomization (7:3), with the Bernoulli trial. The validity of the regression model developed with the remaining 30% of the data (men: 33, women: 32) was also examined. [Results] Based on the regression coefficient, we found that the independent variable HRT was a significant variable in all regression models. The adjusted R2 of the developed regression models averaged about 70%, and the standard error of estimation of the validity test results was 11 bpm, which is similar to that of the developed model. [Conclusion] These results suggest that HRT is a useful parameter for predicting HRLT and HRVT. PMID:29036765

Development of an anaerobic threshold (HRLT, HRVT) estimation equation using the heart rate threshold (HRT) during the treadmill incremental exercise test.

PubMed

Ham, Joo-Ho; Park, Hun-Young; Kim, Youn-Ho; Bae, Sang-Kon; Ko, Byung-Hoon; Nam, Sang-Seok

2017-09-30

The purpose of this study was to develop a regression model to estimate the heart rate at the lactate threshold (HRLT) and the heart rate at the ventilatory threshold (HRVT) using the heart rate threshold (HRT), and to test the validity of the regression model. We performed a graded exercise test with a treadmill in 220 normal individuals (men: 112, women: 108) aged 20-59 years. HRT, HRLT, and HRVT were measured in all subjects. A regression model was developed to estimate HRLT and HRVT using HRT with 70% of the data (men: 79, women: 76) through randomization (7:3), with the Bernoulli trial. The validity of the regression model developed with the remaining 30% of the data (men: 33, women: 32) was also examined. Based on the regression coefficient, we found that the independent variable HRT was a significant variable in all regression models. The adjusted R2 of the developed regression models averaged about 70%, and the standard error of estimation of the validity test results was 11 bpm, which is similar to that of the developed model. These results suggest that HRT is a useful parameter for predicting HRLT and HRVT. ©2017 The Korean Society for Exercise Nutrition

Galactic dual population models of gamma-ray bursts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Higdon, J. C.; Lingenfelter, R. E.

1994-01-01

We investigate in more detail the properties of two-population models for gamma-ray bursts in the galactic disk and halo. We calculate the gamma-ray burst statistical properties, mean value of (V/V(sub max)), mean value of cos Theta, and mean value of (sin(exp 2) b), as functions of the detection flux threshold for bursts coming from both Galactic disk and massive halo populations. We consider halo models inferred from the observational constraints on the large-scale Galactic structure and we compare the expected values of mean value of (V/V(sub max)), mean value of cos Theta, and mean value of (sin(exp 2) b), with those measured by Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) and other detectors. We find that the measured values are consistent with solely Galactic populations having a range of halo distributions, mixed with local disk distributions, which can account for as much as approximately 25% of the observed BATSE bursts. M31 does not contribute to these modeled bursts. We also demonstrate, contrary to recent arguments, that the size-frequency distributions of dual population models are quite consistent with the BATSE observations.

Threshold-driven optimization for reference-based auto-planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Long, Troy; Chen, Mingli; Jiang, Steve; Lu, Weiguo

2018-02-01

We study threshold-driven optimization methodology for automatically generating a treatment plan that is motivated by a reference DVH for IMRT treatment planning. We present a framework for threshold-driven optimization for reference-based auto-planning (TORA). Commonly used voxel-based quadratic penalties have two components for penalizing under- and over-dosing of voxels: a reference dose threshold and associated penalty weight. Conventional manual- and auto-planning using such a function involves iteratively updating the preference weights while keeping the thresholds constant, an unintuitive and often inconsistent method for planning toward some reference DVH. However, driving a dose distribution by threshold values instead of preference weights can achieve similar plans with less computational effort. The proposed methodology spatially assigns reference DVH information to threshold values, and iteratively improves the quality of that assignment. The methodology effectively handles both sub-optimal and infeasible DVHs. TORA was applied to a prostate case and a liver case as a proof-of-concept. Reference DVHs were generated using a conventional voxel-based objective, then altered to be either infeasible or easy-to-achieve. TORA was able to closely recreate reference DVHs in 5-15 iterations of solving a simple convex sub-problem. TORA has the potential to be effective for auto-planning based on reference DVHs. As dose prediction and knowledge-based planning becomes more prevalent in the clinical setting, incorporating such data into the treatment planning model in a clear, efficient way will be crucial for automated planning. A threshold-focused objective tuning should be explored over conventional methods of updating preference weights for DVH-guided treatment planning.

Contributions of adaptation currents to dynamic spike threshold on slow timescales: Biophysical insights from conductance-based models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, Guosheng; Wang, Jiang; Wei, Xile; Deng, Bin; Li, Huiyan; Che, Yanqiu

2017-06-01

Spike-frequency adaptation (SFA) mediated by various adaptation currents, such as voltage-gated K+ current (IM), Ca2+-gated K+ current (IAHP), or Na+-activated K+ current (IKNa), exists in many types of neurons, which has been shown to effectively shape their information transmission properties on slow timescales. Here we use conductance-based models to investigate how the activation of three adaptation currents regulates the threshold voltage for action potential (AP) initiation during the course of SFA. It is observed that the spike threshold gets depolarized and the rate of membrane depolarization (dV/dt) preceding AP is reduced as adaptation currents reduce firing rate. It is indicated that the presence of inhibitory adaptation currents enables the neuron to generate a dynamic threshold inversely correlated with preceding dV/dt on slower timescales than fast dynamics of AP generation. By analyzing the interactions of ionic currents at subthreshold potentials, we find that the activation of adaptation currents increase the outward level of net membrane current prior to AP initiation, which antagonizes inward Na+ to result in a depolarized threshold and lower dV/dt from one AP to the next. Our simulations demonstrate that the threshold dynamics on slow timescales is a secondary effect caused by the activation of adaptation currents. These findings have provided a biophysical interpretation of the relationship between adaptation currents and spike threshold.

Natural Human Mobility Patterns and Spatial Spread of Infectious Diseases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belik, Vitaly; Geisel, Theo; Brockmann, Dirk

2011-08-01

We investigate a model for spatial epidemics explicitly taking into account bidirectional movements between base and destination locations on individual mobility networks. We provide a systematic analysis of generic dynamical features of the model on regular and complex metapopulation network topologies and show that significant dynamical differences exist to ordinary reaction-diffusion and effective force of infection models. On a lattice we calculate an expression for the velocity of the propagating epidemic front and find that, in contrast to the diffusive systems, our model predicts a saturation of the velocity with an increasing traveling rate. Furthermore, we show that a fully stochastic system exhibits a novel threshold for the attack ratio of an outbreak that is absent in diffusion and force of infection models. These insights not only capture natural features of human mobility relevant for the geographical epidemic spread, they may serve as a starting point for modeling important dynamical processes in human and animal epidemiology, population ecology, biology, and evolution.

Pedestrians’ behavior in emergency evacuation: Modeling and simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Lei; Zheng, Jie-Hui; Zhang, Xiao-Shuang; Zhang, Jian-Lin; Wang, Qiu-Zhen; Zhang, Qian

2016-11-01

The social force model has been widely used to simulate pedestrian evacuation by analyzing attractive, repulsive, driving, and fluctuating forces among pedestrians. Many researchers have improved its limitations in simulating behaviors of large-scale population. This study modifies the well-accepted social force model by considering the impacts of interaction among companions and further develops a comprehensive model by combining that with a multi-exit utility function. Then numerical simulations of evacuations based on the comprehensive model are implemented in the waiting hall of the Wulin Square Subway Station in Hangzhou, China. The results provide safety thresholds of pedestrian density and panic levels in different operation situations. In spite of the operation situation and the panic level, a larger friend-group size results in lower evacuation efficiency. Our study makes important contributions to building a comprehensive multi-exit social force model and to applying it to actual scenarios, which produces data to facilitate decision making in contingency plans and emergency treatment. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 71471163).

Thresholds of probable problematic gambling involvement for the German population: Results of the Pathological Gambling and Epidemiology (PAGE) Study.

PubMed

Brosowski, Tim; Hayer, Tobias; Meyer, Gerhard; Rumpf, Hans-Jürgen; John, Ulrich; Bischof, Anja; Meyer, Christian

2015-09-01

Consumption measures in gambling research may help to establish thresholds of low-risk gambling as 1 part of evidence-based responsible gambling strategies. The aim of this study is to replicate existing Canadian thresholds of probable low-risk gambling (Currie et al., 2006) in a representative dataset of German gambling behavior (Pathological Gambling and Epidemiology [PAGE]; N = 15,023). Receiver-operating characteristic curves applied in a training dataset (60%) extracted robust thresholds of low-risk gambling across 4 nonexclusive definitions of gambling problems (1 + to 4 + Diagnostic and Statistical Manual for Mental Disorders-Fifth Edition [DSM-5] Composite International Diagnostic Interview [CIDI] symptoms), different indicators of gambling involvement (across all game types; form-specific) and different timeframes (lifetime; last year). Logistic regressions applied in a test dataset (40%) to cross-validate the heuristics of probable low-risk gambling incorporated confounding covariates (age, gender, education, migration, and unemployment) and confirmed the strong concurrent validity of the thresholds. Moreover, it was possible to establish robust form-specific thresholds of low-risk gambling (only for gaming machines and poker). Possible implications for early detection of problem gamblers in offline or online environments are discussed. Results substantiate international knowledge about problem gambling prevention and contribute to a German discussion about empirically based guidelines of low-risk gambling. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Ethnicity and the association between anthropometric indices of obesity and cardiovascular risk in women: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Goh, Louise G H; Dhaliwal, Satvinder S; Welborn, Timothy A; Lee, Andy H; Della, Phillip R

2014-01-01

Objectives The objectives of this study were to determine whether the cross-sectional associations between anthropometric obesity measures, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and calculated 10-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using the Framingham and general CVD risk score models, are the same for women of Australian, UK and Ireland, North European, South European and Asian descent. This study would investigate which anthropometric obesity measure is most predictive at identifying women at increased CVD risk in each ethnic group. Design Cross-sectional data from the National Heart Foundation Risk Factor Prevalence Study. Setting Population-based survey in Australia. Participants 4354 women aged 20–69 years with no history of heart disease, diabetes or stroke. Most participants were of Australian, UK and Ireland, North European, South European or Asian descent (97%). Outcome measures Anthropometric obesity measures that demonstrated stronger predictive ability of identifying women at increased CVD risk and likelihood of being above the promulgated treatment thresholds of various risk score models. Results Central obesity measures, WC and WHR, were better predictors of cardiovascular risk. WHR reported a stronger predictive ability than WC and BMI in Caucasian women. In Northern European women, BMI was a better indicator of risk using the general CVD (10% threshold) and Framingham (20% threshold) risk score models. WC was the most predictive of cardiovascular risk among Asian women. Conclusions Ethnicity should be incorporated into CVD assessment. The same anthropometric obesity measure cannot be used across all ethnic groups. Ethnic-specific CVD prevention and treatment strategies need to be further developed. PMID:24852299

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia

PubMed Central

Camarero, J. Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q.; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin

2017-01-01

Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950–2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells. PMID:29109266

Climate extremes and predicted warming threaten Mediterranean Holocene firs forests refugia.

PubMed

Sánchez-Salguero, Raúl; Camarero, J Julio; Carrer, Marco; Gutiérrez, Emilia; Alla, Arben Q; Andreu-Hayles, Laia; Hevia, Andrea; Koutavas, Athanasios; Martínez-Sancho, Elisabet; Nola, Paola; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Pasho, Edmond; Toromani, Ervin; Carreira, José A; Linares, Juan C

2017-11-21

Warmer and drier climatic conditions are projected for the 21st century; however, the role played by extreme climatic events on forest vulnerability is still little understood. For example, more severe droughts and heat waves could threaten quaternary relict tree refugia such as Circum-Mediterranean fir forests (CMFF). Using tree-ring data and a process-based model, we characterized the major climate constraints of recent (1950-2010) CMFF growth to project their vulnerability to 21st-century climate. Simulations predict a 30% growth reduction in some fir species with the 2050s business-as-usual emission scenario, whereas growth would increase in moist refugia due to a longer and warmer growing season. Fir populations currently subjected to warm and dry conditions will be the most vulnerable in the late 21st century when climatic conditions will be analogous to the most severe dry/heat spells causing dieback in the late 20th century. Quantification of growth trends based on climate scenarios could allow defining vulnerability thresholds in tree populations. The presented predictions call for conservation strategies to safeguard relict tree populations and anticipate how many refugia could be threatened by 21st-century dry spells.

A Three-Threshold Learning Rule Approaches the Maximal Capacity of Recurrent Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Alemi, Alireza; Baldassi, Carlo; Brunel, Nicolas; Zecchina, Riccardo

2015-01-01

Understanding the theoretical foundations of how memories are encoded and retrieved in neural populations is a central challenge in neuroscience. A popular theoretical scenario for modeling memory function is the attractor neural network scenario, whose prototype is the Hopfield model. The model simplicity and the locality of the synaptic update rules come at the cost of a poor storage capacity, compared with the capacity achieved with perceptron learning algorithms. Here, by transforming the perceptron learning rule, we present an online learning rule for a recurrent neural network that achieves near-maximal storage capacity without an explicit supervisory error signal, relying only upon locally accessible information. The fully-connected network consists of excitatory binary neurons with plastic recurrent connections and non-plastic inhibitory feedback stabilizing the network dynamics; the memory patterns to be memorized are presented online as strong afferent currents, producing a bimodal distribution for the neuron synaptic inputs. Synapses corresponding to active inputs are modified as a function of the value of the local fields with respect to three thresholds. Above the highest threshold, and below the lowest threshold, no plasticity occurs. In between these two thresholds, potentiation/depression occurs when the local field is above/below an intermediate threshold. We simulated and analyzed a network of binary neurons implementing this rule and measured its storage capacity for different sizes of the basins of attraction. The storage capacity obtained through numerical simulations is shown to be close to the value predicted by analytical calculations. We also measured the dependence of capacity on the strength of external inputs. Finally, we quantified the statistics of the resulting synaptic connectivity matrix, and found that both the fraction of zero weight synapses and the degree of symmetry of the weight matrix increase with the number of stored patterns. PMID:26291608

A Three-Threshold Learning Rule Approaches the Maximal Capacity of Recurrent Neural Networks.

PubMed

Alemi, Alireza; Baldassi, Carlo; Brunel, Nicolas; Zecchina, Riccardo

2015-08-01

Understanding the theoretical foundations of how memories are encoded and retrieved in neural populations is a central challenge in neuroscience. A popular theoretical scenario for modeling memory function is the attractor neural network scenario, whose prototype is the Hopfield model. The model simplicity and the locality of the synaptic update rules come at the cost of a poor storage capacity, compared with the capacity achieved with perceptron learning algorithms. Here, by transforming the perceptron learning rule, we present an online learning rule for a recurrent neural network that achieves near-maximal storage capacity without an explicit supervisory error signal, relying only upon locally accessible information. The fully-connected network consists of excitatory binary neurons with plastic recurrent connections and non-plastic inhibitory feedback stabilizing the network dynamics; the memory patterns to be memorized are presented online as strong afferent currents, producing a bimodal distribution for the neuron synaptic inputs. Synapses corresponding to active inputs are modified as a function of the value of the local fields with respect to three thresholds. Above the highest threshold, and below the lowest threshold, no plasticity occurs. In between these two thresholds, potentiation/depression occurs when the local field is above/below an intermediate threshold. We simulated and analyzed a network of binary neurons implementing this rule and measured its storage capacity for different sizes of the basins of attraction. The storage capacity obtained through numerical simulations is shown to be close to the value predicted by analytical calculations. We also measured the dependence of capacity on the strength of external inputs. Finally, we quantified the statistics of the resulting synaptic connectivity matrix, and found that both the fraction of zero weight synapses and the degree of symmetry of the weight matrix increase with the number of stored patterns.

Concentration–Response Function for Ozone and Daily Mortality: Results from Five Urban and Five Rural U.K. Populations

PubMed Central

Yu, Dahai; Armstrong, Ben G.; Pattenden, Sam; Wilkinson, Paul; Doherty, Ruth M.; Heal, Mathew R.; Anderson, H. Ross

2012-01-01

Background: Short-term exposure to ozone has been associated with increased daily mortality. The shape of the concentration–response relationship—and, in particular, if there is a threshold—is critical for estimating public health impacts. Objective: We investigated the concentration–response relationship between daily ozone and mortality in five urban and five rural areas in the United Kingdom from 1993 to 2006. Methods: We used Poisson regression, controlling for seasonality, temperature, and influenza, to investigate associations between daily maximum 8-hr ozone and daily all-cause mortality, assuming linear, linear-threshold, and spline models for all-year and season-specific periods. We examined sensitivity to adjustment for particles (urban areas only) and alternative temperature metrics. Results: In all-year analyses, we found clear evidence for a threshold in the concentration–response relationship between ozone and all-cause mortality in London at 65 µg/m3 [95% confidence interval (CI): 58, 83] but little evidence of a threshold in other urban or rural areas. Combined linear effect estimates for all-cause mortality were comparable for urban and rural areas: 0.48% (95% CI: 0.35, 0.60) and 0.58% (95% CI: 0.36, 0.81) per 10-µg/m3 increase in ozone concentrations, respectively. Seasonal analyses suggested thresholds in both urban and rural areas for effects of ozone during summer months. Conclusions: Our results suggest that health impacts should be estimated across the whole ambient range of ozone using both threshold and nonthreshold models, and models stratified by season. Evidence of a threshold effect in London but not in other study areas requires further investigation. The public health impacts of exposure to ozone in rural areas should not be overlooked. PMID:22814173

Viability of the Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dunham, Kylee; Grand, James B.

2016-10-11

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is tasked with setting objective and measurable criteria for delisting species or populations listed under the Endangered Species Act. Determining the acceptable threshold for extinction risk for any species or population is a challenging task, particularly when facing marked uncertainty. The Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders (Polysticta stelleri) was listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1997 because of a perceived decline in abundance throughout their nesting range and geographic isolation from the Russian breeding population. Previous genetic studies and modeling efforts, however, suggest that there may be dispersal from the Russian breeding population. Additionally, evidence exists of population level nonbreeding events. Research was conducted to estimate population viability of the Alaskan breeding population of Steller’s eiders, using both an open and closed model of population process for this threatened population. Projections under a closed population model suggest this population has a 100 percent probability of extinction within 42 years. Projections under an open population model suggest that with immigration there is no probability of permanent extinction. Because of random immigration process and nonbreeding behavior, however, it is likely that this population will continue to be present in low and highly variable numbers on the breeding grounds in Alaska. Monitoring the winter population, which includes both Russian and Alaskan breeding birds, may offer a more comprehensive indication of population viability.

Coupling a regional warning system to a semantic engine on online news for enhancing landslide prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Battistini, Alessandro; Rosi, Ascanio; Segoni, Samuele; Catani, Filippo; Casagli, Nicola

2017-04-01

Landslide inventories are basic data for large scale landslide modelling, e.g. they are needed to calibrate and validate rainfall thresholds, physically based models and early warning systems. The setting up of landslide inventories with traditional methods (e.g. remote sensing, field surveys and manual retrieval of data from technical reports and local newspapers) is time consuming. The objective of this work is to automatically set up a landslide inventory using a state-of-the art semantic engine based on data mining on online news (Battistini et al., 2013) and to evaluate if the automatically generated inventory can be used to validate a regional scale landslide warning system based on rainfall-thresholds. The semantic engine scanned internet news in real time in a 50 months test period. At the end of the process, an inventory of approximately 900 landslides was set up for the Tuscany region (23,000 km2, Italy). The inventory was compared with the outputs of the regional landslide early warning system based on rainfall thresholds, and a good correspondence was found: e.g. 84% of the events reported in the news is correctly identified by the model. In addition, the cases of not correspondence were forwarded to the rainfall threshold developers, which used these inputs to update some of the thresholds. On the basis of the results obtained, we conclude that automatic validation of landslide models using geolocalized landslide events feedback is possible. The source of data for validation can be obtained directly from the internet channel using an appropriate semantic engine. We also automated the validation procedure, which is based on a comparison between forecasts and reported events. We verified that our approach can be automatically used for a near real time validation of the warning system and for a semi-automatic update of the rainfall thresholds, which could lead to an improvement of the forecasting effectiveness of the warning system. In the near future, the proposed procedure could operate in continuous time and could allow for a periodic update of landslide hazard models and landslide early warning systems with minimum human intervention. References: Battistini, A., Segoni, S., Manzo, G., Catani, F., Casagli, N. (2013). Web data mining for automatic inventory of geohazards at national scale. Applied Geography, 43, 147-158.

Genome-wide analysis of epistasis in body mass index using multiple human populations.

PubMed

Wei, Wen-Hua; Hemani, Gib; Gyenesei, Attila; Vitart, Veronique; Navarro, Pau; Hayward, Caroline; Cabrera, Claudia P; Huffman, Jennifer E; Knott, Sara A; Hicks, Andrew A; Rudan, Igor; Pramstaller, Peter P; Wild, Sarah H; Wilson, James F; Campbell, Harry; Hastie, Nicholas D; Wright, Alan F; Haley, Chris S

2012-08-01

We surveyed gene-gene interactions (epistasis) in human body mass index (BMI) in four European populations (n<1200) via exhaustive pair-wise genome scans where interactions were computed as F ratios by testing a linear regression model fitting two single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with interactions against the one without. Before the association tests, BMI was corrected for sex and age, normalised and adjusted for relatedness. Neither single SNPs nor SNP interactions were genome-wide significant in either cohort based on the consensus threshold (P=5.0E-08) and a Bonferroni corrected threshold (P=1.1E-12), respectively. Next we compared sub genome-wide significant SNP interactions (P<5.0E-08) across cohorts to identify common epistatic signals, where SNPs were annotated to genes to test for gene ontology (GO) enrichment. Among the epistatic genes contributing to the commonly enriched GO terms, 19 were shared across study cohorts of which 15 are previously published genome-wide association loci, including CDH13 (cadherin 13) associated with height and SORCS2 (sortilin-related VPS10 domain containing receptor 2) associated with circulating insulin-like growth factor 1 and binding protein 3. Interactions between the 19 shared epistatic genes and those involving BMI candidate loci (P<5.0E-08) were tested across cohorts and found eight replicated at the SNP level (P<0.05) in at least one cohort, which were further tested and showed limited replication in a separate European population (n>5000). We conclude that genome-wide analysis of epistasis in multiple populations is an effective approach to provide new insights into the genetic regulation of BMI but requires additional efforts to confirm the findings.

Killer whales (Orcinus orca) face protracted health risks associated with lifetime exposure to PCBs.

PubMed

Hickie, Brendan E; Ross, Peter S; Macdonald, Robie W; Ford, John K B

2007-09-15

Polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) concentrations declined rapidly in environmental compartments and most biota following implementation of regulations in the 1970s. However, the metabolic recalcitrance of PCBs may delay responses to such declines in large, long-lived species, such as the endangered and highly PCB-contaminated resident killer whales (Orcinus orca) of the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. To investigate the influence of life history on PCB-related health risks, we developed models to estimate PCB concentrations in killer whales during the period from 1930 forward to 2030, both within a lifetime (approximately 50 years) and across generations, and then evaluated these in the context of health effects thresholds established for marine mammals. Modeled PCB concentrations in killer whales responded slowly to changes in loadings to the environment as evidenced by slower accumulation and lower magnitude increases in PCB concentrations relative to prey, and a delayed decline that was particularly evident in adult males. Since PCBs attained peak levels well above the effects threshold (17 mg/kg lipid) in approximately 1969, estimated concentrations in both the northern and the more contaminated southern resident populations have declined gradually. Projections suggest that the northern resident population could largely fall below the threshold concentration by 2030 while the endangered southern residents may not do so until at least 2063. Long-lived aquatic mammals are therefore not protected from PCBs by current dietary residue guidelines.

Deriving flow directions for coarse-resolution (1-4 km) gridded hydrologic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reed, Seann M.

2003-09-01

The National Weather Service Hydrology Laboratory (NWS-HL) is currently testing a grid-based distributed hydrologic model at a resolution (4 km) commensurate with operational, radar-based precipitation products. To implement distributed routing algorithms in this framework, a flow direction must be assigned to each model cell. A new algorithm, referred to as cell outlet tracing with an area threshold (COTAT) has been developed to automatically, accurately, and efficiently assign flow directions to any coarse-resolution grid cells using information from any higher-resolution digital elevation model. Although similar to previously published algorithms, this approach offers some advantages. Use of an area threshold allows more control over the tendency for producing diagonal flow directions. Analyses of results at different output resolutions ranging from 300 m to 4000 m indicate that it is possible to choose an area threshold that will produce minimal differences in average network flow lengths across this range of scales. Flow direction grids at a 4 km resolution have been produced for the conterminous United States.

Spatially implicit approaches to understand the manipulation of mating success for insect invasion management

Treesearch

Takehiko Yamanaka; Andrew M. Liebhold

2009-01-01

Recent work indicates that Allee effects (the positive relationship between population size and per capita growth rate) are critical in determining the successful establishment of invading species. Allee effects may create population thresholds, and failure to establish is likely if invading populations fall below these thresholds. There are many mechanisms that may...

Value-at-risk estimation with wavelet-based extreme value theory: Evidence from emerging markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cifter, Atilla

2011-06-01

This paper introduces wavelet-based extreme value theory (EVT) for univariate value-at-risk estimation. Wavelets and EVT are combined for volatility forecasting to estimate a hybrid model. In the first stage, wavelets are used as a threshold in generalized Pareto distribution, and in the second stage, EVT is applied with a wavelet-based threshold. This new model is applied to two major emerging stock markets: the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) and the Budapest Stock Exchange (BUX). The relative performance of wavelet-based EVT is benchmarked against the Riskmetrics-EWMA, ARMA-GARCH, generalized Pareto distribution, and conditional generalized Pareto distribution models. The empirical results show that the wavelet-based extreme value theory increases predictive performance of financial forecasting according to number of violations and tail-loss tests. The superior forecasting performance of the wavelet-based EVT model is also consistent with Basel II requirements, and this new model can be used by financial institutions as well.

High Body Mass Index in Infancy May Predict Severe Obesity in Early Childhood.

PubMed

Smego, Allison; Woo, Jessica G; Klein, Jillian; Suh, Christina; Bansal, Danesh; Bliss, Sherri; Daniels, Stephen R; Bolling, Christopher; Crimmins, Nancy A

2017-04-01

To characterize growth trajectories of children who develop severe obesity by age 6 years and identify clinical thresholds for detection of high-risk children before the onset of obesity. Two lean (body mass index [BMI] 5th to ≤75th percentile) and 2 severely obese (BMI ≥99th percentile) groups were selected from populations treated at pediatric referral and primary care clinics. A population-based cohort was used to validate the utility of identified risk thresholds. Repeated-measures mixed modeling and logistic regression were used for analysis. A total of 783 participants of normal weight and 480 participants with severe obesity were included in the initial study. BMI differed significantly between the severely obese and normal-weight cohorts by age 4 months (P < .001), at 1 year before the median age at onset of obesity. A cutoff of the World Health Organization (WHO) 85th percentile for BMI at 6, 12, and 18 months was a strong predictor of severe obesity by age 6 years (sensitivity, 51%-95%; specificity, 95%). This BMI threshold was validated in a second independent cohort (n = 2649), with a sensitivity of 33%-77% and a specificity of 74%-87%. A BMI ≥85th percentile in infancy increases the risk of severe obesity by age 6 years by 2.5-fold and the risk of clinical obesity by age 6 years by 3-fold. BMI trajectories in children who develop severe obesity by age 6 years differ from those in children who remain at normal weight by age 4-6 months, before the onset of obesity. Infants with a WHO BMI ≥85th percentile are at increased risk for developing severe obesity by age 6 years. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Emergence of social cooperation in threshold public goods games with collective risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jing; Fu, Feng; Wu, Te; Wang, Long

2009-07-01

In real situations, people are often faced with the option of voluntary contribution to achieve a collective goal, for example, building a dam or a fence, in order to avoid an unfavorable loss. Those who do not donate, however, can free ride on others’ sacrifices. As a result, cooperation is difficult to maintain, leading to an enduring collective-risk social dilemma. To address this issue, here we propose a simple yet effective theoretical model of threshold public goods game with collective risk and focus on the effect of risk on the emergence of social cooperation. To do this, we consider the population dynamics represented by replicator equation for two simplifying scenarios, respectively: one with fair sharers, who contribute the minimum average amount versus defectors and the other with altruists contributing more than average versus defectors. For both cases, we find that the dilemma is relieved in high-risk situations where cooperation is likely to persist and dominate defection in the population. Large initial endowment to individuals also encourages the risk-averse action, which means that, as compared to poor players (with small initial endowment), wealthy individuals (with large initial endowment) are more likely to cooperate in order to protect their private accounts. In addition, we show that small donation amount and small threshold (collective target) can encourage and sustain cooperation. Furthermore, for other parameters fixed, the impacts of group size act differently on the two scenarios because of distinct mechanisms: in the former case where the cost of cooperation depends on the group size, large size of group readily results in defection, while easily maintains cooperation in the latter case where the cost of cooperation is fixed irrespective of the group size. Our theoretical results of the replicator dynamics are in excellent agreement with the individual based simulation results.

Modeling seasonal measles transmission in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bai, Zhenguo; Liu, Dan

2015-08-01

A discrete-time deterministic measles model with periodic transmission rate is formulated and studied. The basic reproduction number R0 is defined and used as the threshold parameter in determining the dynamics of the model. It is shown that the disease will die out if R0 < 1 , and the disease will persist in the population if R0 > 1 . Parameters in the model are estimated on the basis of demographic and epidemiological data. Numerical simulations are presented to describe the seasonal fluctuation of measles infection in China.

Strategy Guideline. Modeling Enclosure Design in Above-Grade Walls

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

J. Lstiburek; Ueno, K.; Musunuru, S.

2016-02-01

The Strategy Guideline, written by the U.S. Department of Energy's research team Building Science Corporation, 1) describes how to model and interpret results of models for above-grade walls, and 2) analyzes the failure thresholds and criteria for above-grade walls. A library of above-grade walls with historically successful performance was used to calibrate WUFI (Wärme und Feuchte instationär) software models. The information is generalized for application to a broad population of houses within the limits of existing experience.

Mercury concentrations in China's coastal waters and implications for fish consumption by vulnerable populations.

PubMed

Tong, Yindong; Wang, Mengzhu; Bu, Xiaoge; Guo, Xin; Lin, Yan; Lin, Huiming; Li, Jing; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Xuejun

2017-12-01

We assessed mercury (Hg) pollution in China's coastal waters, including the Bohai Sea, the Yellow Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea, based on a nationwide dataset from 301 sampling sites. A methylmercury (MeHg) intake model for humans based on the marine food chain and human fish consumption was established to determine the linkage between water pollutants and the pollutant intake by humans. The predicted MeHg concentration in fish from the Bohai Sea was the highest among the four seas included in the study. The MeHg intake through dietary ingestion was dominant for the fish and was considerably higher than the MeHg intake through water respiration. The predicted MeHg concentrations in human blood in the coastal regions of China ranged from 1.37 to 2.77 μg/L for pregnant woman and from 0.43 to 1.00 μg/L for infants, respectively, based on different diet sources. The carnivorous fish consumption advisory for pregnant women was estimated to be 288-654 g per week to maintain MeHg concentrations in human blood at levels below the threshold level (4.4 μg/L established by the US Environmental Protection Agency). With a 50% increase in Hg concentrations in water in the Bohai Sea, the bioaccumulated MeHg concentration (4.5 μg/L) in the fish consumers will be higher than the threshold level. This study demonstrates the importance in controlling Hg pollution in China's coastal waters. An official recommendation guideline for the fish consumption rate and its sources will be necessary for vulnerable populations in China. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Signal processing system for electrotherapy applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Płaza, Mirosław; Szcześniak, Zbigniew

2017-08-01

The system of signal processing for electrotherapeutic applications is proposed in the paper. The system makes it possible to model the curve of threshold human sensitivity to current (Dalziel's curve) in full medium frequency range (1kHz-100kHz). The tests based on the proposed solution were conducted and their results were compared with those obtained according to the assumptions of High Tone Power Therapy method and referred to optimum values. Proposed system has high dynamics and precision of mapping the curve of threshold human sensitivity to current and can be used in all methods where threshold curves are modelled.

Agronomic threshold of soil available phosphorus in grey desert soils in Xinjiang, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, B.; Liu, H.; Hao, X. Y.; Wang, X. H.; Sun, J. S.; Li, J. M.; Ma, Y. B.

2016-08-01

Based on 23 years of data, yields of maize, wheat and cotton were modelled under different fertilizer management practices and at different levels of available phosphorus (Olsen-P) in soil. Three types of threshold models were used, namely linear-linear (LL), linear- plateau (LP), and Mitscherlich type exponential (Exp). The agronomic thresholds of available phosphorus were 25.4 mgkg-1 for cotton, 14.8 mgkg-1 for wheat, 13.1 mgkg-1 for maize and 25.4 mgkg-1 for the grey desert soil regions of Xinjiang in China as a whole.

Evaluating the Performance of a Climate-Driven Mortality Model during Heat Waves and Cold Spells in Europe

PubMed Central

Lowe, Rachel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R.; Rodó, Xavier

2015-01-01

The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998–2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1–15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1–15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could potentially be made several months ahead of imminent heat waves and cold spells. PMID:25625407

Evaluating the performance of a climate-driven mortality model during heat waves and cold spells in Europe.

PubMed

Lowe, Rachel; Ballester, Joan; Creswick, James; Robine, Jean-Marie; Herrmann, François R; Rodó, Xavier

2015-01-23

The impact of climate change on human health is a serious concern. In particular, changes in the frequency and intensity of heat waves and cold spells are of high relevance in terms of mortality and morbidity. This demonstrates the urgent need for reliable early-warning systems to help authorities prepare and respond to emergency situations. In this study, we evaluate the performance of a climate-driven mortality model to provide probabilistic predictions of exceeding emergency mortality thresholds for heat wave and cold spell scenarios. Daily mortality data corresponding to 187 NUTS2 regions across 16 countries in Europe were obtained from 1998-2003. Data were aggregated to 54 larger regions in Europe, defined according to similarities in population structure and climate. Location-specific average mortality rates, at given temperature intervals over the time period, were modelled to account for the increased mortality observed during both high and low temperature extremes and differing comfort temperatures between regions. Model parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework, in order to generate probabilistic simulations of mortality across Europe for time periods of interest. For the heat wave scenario (1-15 August 2003), the model was successfully able to anticipate the occurrence or non-occurrence of mortality rates exceeding the emergency threshold (75th percentile of the mortality distribution) for 89% of the 54 regions, given a probability decision threshold of 70%. For the cold spell scenario (1-15 January 2003), mortality events in 69% of the regions were correctly anticipated with a probability decision threshold of 70%. By using a more conservative decision threshold of 30%, this proportion increased to 87%. Overall, the model performed better for the heat wave scenario. By replacing observed temperature data in the model with forecast temperature, from state-of-the-art European forecasting systems, probabilistic mortality predictions could potentially be made several months ahead of imminent heat waves and cold spells.

Olfactory Impairment in Chronic Rhinosinusitis Using Threshold, Discrimination, and Identification Scores

PubMed Central

Kohli, Preeti; Storck, Kristina A.; Schlosser, Rodney J.

2016-01-01

Differences in testing modalities and cut-points used to define olfactory dysfunction contribute to the wide variability in estimating the prevalence of olfactory dysfunction in chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS). The aim of this study is to report the prevalence of olfactory impairment using each component of the Sniffin’ Sticks test (threshold, discrimination, identification, and total score) with age-adjusted and ideal cut-points from normative populations. Patients meeting diagnostic criteria for CRS were enrolled from rhinology clinics at a tertiary academic center. Olfaction was assessed using the Sniffin’ Sticks test. The study population consisted of 110 patients. The prevalence of normosmia, hyposmia, and anosmia using total Sniffin’ Sticks score was 41.8%, 20.0%, and 38.2% using age-appropriate cut-points and 20.9%, 40.9%, and 38.2% using ideal cut-points. Olfactory impairment estimates for each dimension mirrored these findings, with threshold yielding the highest values. Threshold, discrimination, and identification were also found to be significantly correlated to each other (P < 0.001). In addition, computed tomography scores, asthma, allergy, and diabetes were found to be associated with olfactory dysfunction. In conclusion, the prevalence of olfactory dysfunction is dependent upon olfactory dimension and if age-adjusted cut-points are used. The method of olfactory testing should be chosen based upon specific clinical and research goals. PMID:27469973

Effects of temperature on Anoplophora glabripennis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) larvae and pupae.

PubMed

Keena, M A; Moore, P M

2010-08-01

Developmental thresholds, degree-days for development, larval weights, and head capsule widths for each larval instar and the pupal stage of Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) were studied at eight constant temperatures (5, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, and 40°C) for two source populations (Ravenswood, Chicago, IL [IL], and Bayside, Queens, NY [NY]). The estimated lower threshold temperature for development of instars 1-5 and the pupal stage was near 10°C and was near 12°C for the higher instars. Developmental rate was less temperature sensitive for instars 5-9 compared with instars 1-4. Development for all but the first instar was inhibited at constant temperatures >30°C, and all instars failed to develop at 40°C. Although the two source populations had similar responses to temperature, IL larvae were heavier than those from NY. Temperature and its influence on larval weight had profound impacts on whether a larva proceeded to pupation. Based on the temperature effects detailed here, larval development and pupation should be possible in most of the continental United States where suitable hosts are available. These data can be used to develop a degree-day model to estimate beetle phenology; however, at least 2°C should be added to air temperatures to adjust for the mediation of temperature by the wood. These data provide a basis for predicting the potential geographical range of this species and for developing phenological models to predict the timing of immature stages, both of which are important for management programs.

Discrete analysis of spatial-sensitivity models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nielsen, Kenneth R. K.; Wandell, Brian A.

1988-01-01

Procedures for reducing the computational burden of current models of spatial vision are described, the simplifications being consistent with the prediction of the complete model. A method for using pattern-sensitivity measurements to estimate the initial linear transformation is also proposed which is based on the assumption that detection performance is monotonic with the vector length of the sensor responses. It is shown how contrast-threshold data can be used to estimate the linear transformation needed to characterize threshold performance.

Social contact networks and disease eradicability under voluntary vaccination.

PubMed

Perisic, Ana; Bauch, Chris T

2009-02-01

Certain theories suggest that it should be difficult or impossible to eradicate a vaccine-preventable disease under voluntary vaccination: Herd immunity implies that the individual incentive to vaccinate disappears at high coverage levels. Historically, there have been examples of declining coverage for vaccines, such as MMR vaccine and whole-cell pertussis vaccine, that are consistent with this theory. On the other hand, smallpox was globally eradicated by 1980 despite voluntary vaccination policies in many jurisdictions. Previous modeling studies of the interplay between disease dynamics and individual vaccinating behavior have assumed that infection is transmitted in a homogeneously mixing population. By comparison, here we simulate transmission of a vaccine-preventable SEIR infection through a random, static contact network. Individuals choose whether to vaccinate based on infection risks from neighbors, and based on vaccine risks. When neighborhood size is small, rational vaccinating behavior results in rapid containment of the infection through voluntary ring vaccination. As neighborhood size increases (while the average force of infection is held constant), a threshold is reached beyond which the infection can break through partially vaccinated rings, percolating through the whole population and resulting in considerable epidemic final sizes and a large number vaccinated. The former outcome represents convergence between individually and socially optimal outcomes, whereas the latter represents their divergence, as observed in most models of individual vaccinating behavior that assume homogeneous mixing. Similar effects are observed in an extended model using smallpox-specific natural history and transmissibility assumptions. This work illustrates the significant qualitative differences between behavior-infection dynamics in discrete contact-structured populations versus continuous unstructured populations. This work also shows how disease eradicability in populations where voluntary vaccination is the primary control mechanism may depend partly on whether the disease is transmissible only to a few close social contacts or to a larger subset of the population.

Precipitation Processes and their Modulation by Synoptic Conditions and Complex Terrain Observed during the GPM Ground Validation Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McMurdie, L. A.; Houze, R.; Zagrodnik, J.; Rowe, A.; DeHart, J.; Barnes, H.

2016-12-01

Successful and sustainable coupling of human societies and natural systems requires effective governance, which depends on the existence of proper infrastructure (both hard and soft). In recent decades, much attention has been paid to what has allowed many small-scale self-organized coupled natural-human systems around the world to persist for centuries, thanks to a large part to the work by Elinor Ostrom and colleagues. In this work, we mathematically operationalize a conceptual framework that is developed based on this body of work by way of a stylized model. The model captures the interplay between replicator dynamics within the population, dynamics of natural resources, and threshold characteristics of public infrastructure. The model analysis reveals conditions for long-term sustainability and collapse of the coupled systems as well as other tradeoffs and potential pitfalls in governing these systems.

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Stop Smoking Interventions in Substance Use Disorder Populations undergoing treatment.

PubMed

Healey, Andrew; Roberts, Sarah; Sevdalis, Nick; Goulding, Lucy; Wilson, Sophie; Shaw, Kate; Jolley, Caroline; Robson, Deborah

2018-05-04

Tobacco smoking is highly prevalent among people attending treatment for a substance use disorder (SUD). In the UK, specialist support to stop smoking is largely delivered by a national network of Stop Smoking Services, and typically comprises of behavioural support delivered by trained practitioners on an individual (one-to-one) or group basis combined with a pharmacological smoking cessation aid. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of these interventions, and compare cost-effectiveness for interventions using group- and individual-based support, in populations under treatment for SUD. Economic modelling was used to evaluate the incremental cost-per-quality adjusted life years (QALYs) gained for smoking cessation interventions compared to alternative methods of quitting for the SUD treatment population. Allowance was made for potentially lower abstinence rates in the SUD population. The incremental cost per QALY gained from quit attempts supported through more frequently provided interventions in England ranged from around £4,700 to £12,200. These values are below the maximum cost-effectiveness threshold adopted by policy makers in England for judging whether health programmes are a cost-effective use of resources. The estimated cost-per QALY gained for Interventions using group-based behavioural support were estimated to be at least half the magnitude of those using individual support due to lower intervention costs and higher reported quit rates. Conclusions reached regarding the cost-effectiveness of group-based interventions were also found to be more robust to changes in modelling assumptions. Smoking cessation interventions were found to be cost-effective when applied to the SUD population, particularly when grouped-based behavioural support is offered alongside pharmacological treatment. This analysis has shown that smoking cessation interventions combining pharmacological treatment with behavioural support can offer a cost-effective method for increasing rates of smoking cessation in populations being treated for a substance use disorder. This is despite evidence of lower comparative success rates in terms of smoking abstinence in populations with SUD. Our evaluation suggests that medication combined with group-based behavioural support may offer better value for money in this population compared to interventions using individual support, though further evidence on the comparative effectiveness and cost of interventions delivered to SUD treatment populations would facilitate a more robust comparison.

Validity of Models for Predicting BRCA1 and BRCA2 Mutations

PubMed Central

Parmigiani, Giovanni; Chen, Sining; Iversen, Edwin S.; Friebel, Tara M.; Finkelstein, Dianne M.; Anton-Culver, Hoda; Ziogas, Argyrios; Weber, Barbara L.; Eisen, Andrea; Malone, Kathleen E.; Daling, Janet R.; Hsu, Li; Ostrander, Elaine A.; Peterson, Leif E.; Schildkraut, Joellen M.; Isaacs, Claudine; Corio, Camille; Leondaridis, Leoni; Tomlinson, Gail; Amos, Christopher I.; Strong, Louise C.; Berry, Donald A.; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Sand, Sharon; Dutson, Debra; Kerber, Rich; Peshkin, Beth N.; Euhus, David M.

2008-01-01

Background Deleterious mutations of the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes confer susceptibility to breast and ovarian cancer. At least 7 models for estimating the probabilities of having a mutation are used widely in clinical and scientific activities; however, the merits and limitations of these models are not fully understood. Objective To systematically quantify the accuracy of the following publicly available models to predict mutation carrier status: BRCAPRO, family history assessment tool, Finnish, Myriad, National Cancer Institute, University of Pennsylvania, and Yale University. Design Cross-sectional validation study, using model predictions and BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation status of patients different from those used to develop the models. Setting Multicenter study across Cancer Genetics Network participating centers. Patients 3 population-based samples of participants in research studies and 8 samples from genetic counseling clinics. Measurements Discrimination between individuals testing positive for a mutation in BRCA1 or BRCA2 from those testing negative, as measured by the c-statistic, and sensitivity and specificity of model predictions. Results The 7 models differ in their predictions. The better-performing models have a c-statistic around 80%. BRCAPRO has the largest c-statistic overall and in all but 2 patient subgroups, although the margin over other models is narrow in many strata. Outside of high-risk populations, all models have high false-negative and false-positive rates across a range of probability thresholds used to refer for mutation testing. Limitation Three recently published models were not included. Conclusions All models identify women who probably carry a deleterious mutation of BRCA1 or BRCA2 with adequate discrimination to support individualized genetic counseling, although discrimination varies across models and populations. PMID:17909205

Cascades in the Threshold Model for varying system sizes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karampourniotis, Panagiotis; Sreenivasan, Sameet; Szymanski, Boleslaw; Korniss, Gyorgy

2015-03-01

A classical model in opinion dynamics is the Threshold Model (TM) aiming to model the spread of a new opinion based on the social drive of peer pressure. Under the TM a node adopts a new opinion only when the fraction of its first neighbors possessing that opinion exceeds a pre-assigned threshold. Cascades in the TM depend on multiple parameters, such as the number and selection strategy of the initially active nodes (initiators), and the threshold distribution of the nodes. For a uniform threshold in the network there is a critical fraction of initiators for which a transition from small to large cascades occurs, which for ER graphs is largerly independent of the system size. Here, we study the spread contribution of each newly assigned initiator under the TM for different initiator selection strategies for synthetic graphs of various sizes. We observe that for ER graphs when large cascades occur, the spread contribution of the added initiator on the transition point is independent of the system size, while the contribution of the rest of the initiators converges to zero at infinite system size. This property is used for the identification of large transitions for various threshold distributions. Supported in part by ARL NS-CTA, ARO, ONR, and DARPA.

Effect of risk perception on epidemic spreading in temporal networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moinet, Antoine; Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Barrat, Alain

2018-01-01

Many progresses in the understanding of epidemic spreading models have been obtained thanks to numerous modeling efforts and analytical and numerical studies, considering host populations with very different structures and properties, including complex and temporal interaction networks. Moreover, a number of recent studies have started to go beyond the assumption of an absence of coupling between the spread of a disease and the structure of the contacts on which it unfolds. Models including awareness of the spread have been proposed, to mimic possible precautionary measures taken by individuals that decrease their risk of infection, but have mostly considered static networks. Here, we adapt such a framework to the more realistic case of temporal networks of interactions between individuals. We study the resulting model by analytical and numerical means on both simple models of temporal networks and empirical time-resolved contact data. Analytical results show that the epidemic threshold is not affected by the awareness but that the prevalence can be significantly decreased. Numerical studies on synthetic temporal networks highlight, however, the presence of very strong finite-size effects, resulting in a significant shift of the effective epidemic threshold in the presence of risk awareness. For empirical contact networks, the awareness mechanism leads as well to a shift in the effective threshold and to a strong reduction of the epidemic prevalence.

Development of a paediatric population-based model of the pharmacokinetics of rivaroxaban.

PubMed

Willmann, Stefan; Becker, Corina; Burghaus, Rolf; Coboeken, Katrin; Edginton, Andrea; Lippert, Jörg; Siegmund, Hans-Ulrich; Thelen, Kirstin; Mück, Wolfgang

2014-01-01

Venous thromboembolism has been increasingly recognised as a clinical problem in the paediatric population. Guideline recommendations for antithrombotic therapy in paediatric patients are based mainly on extrapolation from adult clinical trial data, owing to the limited number of clinical trials in paediatric populations. The oral, direct Factor Xa inhibitor rivaroxaban has been approved in adult patients for several thromboembolic disorders, and its well-defined pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic characteristics and efficacy and safety profiles in adults warrant further investigation of this agent in the paediatric population. The objective of this study was to develop and qualify a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model for rivaroxaban doses of 10 and 20 mg in adults and to scale this model to the paediatric population (0-18 years) to inform the dosing regimen for a clinical study of rivaroxaban in paediatric patients. Experimental data sets from phase I studies supported the development and qualification of an adult PBPK model. This adult PBPK model was then scaled to the paediatric population by including anthropometric and physiological information, age-dependent clearance and age-dependent protein binding. The pharmacokinetic properties of rivaroxaban in virtual populations of children were simulated for two body weight-related dosing regimens equivalent to 10 and 20 mg once daily in adults. The quality of the model was judged by means of a visual predictive check. Subsequently, paediatric simulations of the area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC), maximum (peak) plasma drug concentration (C max) and concentration in plasma after 24 h (C 24h) were compared with the adult reference simulations. Simulations for AUC, C max and C 24h throughout the investigated age range largely overlapped with values obtained for the corresponding dose in the adult reference simulation for both body weight-related dosing regimens. However, pharmacokinetic values in infants and preschool children (body weight <40 kg) were lower than the 90 % confidence interval threshold of the adult reference model and, therefore, indicated that doses in these groups may need to be increased to achieve the same plasma levels as in adults. For children with body weight between 40 and 70 kg, simulated plasma pharmacokinetic parameters (C max, C 24h and AUC) overlapped with the values obtained in the corresponding adult reference simulation, indicating that body weight-related exposure was similar between these children and adults. In adolescents of >70 kg body weight, the simulated 90 % prediction interval values of AUC and C 24h were much higher than the 90 % confidence interval of the adult reference population, owing to the weight-based simulation approach, but for these patients rivaroxaban would be administered at adult fixed doses of 10 and 20 mg. The paediatric PBPK model developed here allowed an exploratory analysis of the pharmacokinetics of rivaroxaban in children to inform the dosing regimen for a clinical study in paediatric patients.

Phase synchronization motion and neural coding in dynamic transmission of neural information.

PubMed

Wang, Rubin; Zhang, Zhikang; Qu, Jingyi; Cao, Jianting

2011-07-01

In order to explore the dynamic characteristics of neural coding in the transmission of neural information in the brain, a model of neural network consisting of three neuronal populations is proposed in this paper using the theory of stochastic phase dynamics. Based on the model established, the neural phase synchronization motion and neural coding under spontaneous activity and stimulation are examined, for the case of varying network structure. Our analysis shows that, under the condition of spontaneous activity, the characteristics of phase neural coding are unrelated to the number of neurons participated in neural firing within the neuronal populations. The result of numerical simulation supports the existence of sparse coding within the brain, and verifies the crucial importance of the magnitudes of the coupling coefficients in neural information processing as well as the completely different information processing capability of neural information transmission in both serial and parallel couplings. The result also testifies that under external stimulation, the bigger the number of neurons in a neuronal population, the more the stimulation influences the phase synchronization motion and neural coding evolution in other neuronal populations. We verify numerically the experimental result in neurobiology that the reduction of the coupling coefficient between neuronal populations implies the enhancement of lateral inhibition function in neural networks, with the enhancement equivalent to depressing neuronal excitability threshold. Thus, the neuronal populations tend to have a stronger reaction under the same stimulation, and more neurons get excited, leading to more neurons participating in neural coding and phase synchronization motion.

Eating Disorders and Their Associated Risk Factors among Iranian Population – A Community Based Study

PubMed Central

Garrusi, Behshid; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza

2013-01-01

Backgrounds: Many socio cultural variables could be affect eating disorders in Asian countries. In Iran, there are few researches regarding eating disorders and their contributing factors. The aim of this study is to explore frequency of eating disorders and their risk factors in an Iranian population. Materials and Methods: About 1204 participants were selected aged between fourteen to 55 years. Frequency of eating disorders and effects of variables such as demographic characteristics, Body Mass Index (BMI), use of media, body dissatisfaction, self-esteem, social comparison and social pressure for thinness in individuals with and without eating disorders, were assessed. Findings: The prevalence of eating disorders was 11.5% that included 0.8% anorexia nervosa, 6.2% full threshold bulimia nervosa, 1.4% sub threshold anorexia nervosa and 30% sub threshold binge eating disorder. Symptoms of bulimic syndrome were greater in males. Conclusion: In Iran, eating disorders and related problems are new issue that could be mentioned seriously The identification of these disorders and their related contributing factors are necessity of management and preventive programs planning. PMID:23283053

Speed tuning of motion segmentation and discrimination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Masson, G. S.; Mestre, D. R.; Stone, L. S.

1999-01-01

Motion transparency requires that the visual system distinguish different motion vectors and selectively integrate similar motion vectors over space into the perception of multiple surfaces moving through or over each other. Using large-field (7 degrees x 7 degrees) displays containing two populations of random-dots moving in the same (horizontal) direction but at different speeds, we examined speed-based segmentation by measuring the speed difference above which observers can perceive two moving surfaces. We systematically investigated this 'speed-segmentation' threshold as a function of speed and stimulus duration, and found that it increases sharply for speeds above approximately 8 degrees/s. In addition, speed-segmentation thresholds decrease with stimulus duration out to approximately 200 ms. In contrast, under matched conditions, speed-discrimination thresholds stay low at least out to 16 degrees/s and decrease with increasing stimulus duration at a faster rate than for speed segmentation. Thus, motion segmentation and motion discrimination exhibit different speed selectivity and different temporal integration characteristics. Results are discussed in terms of the speed preferences of different neuronal populations within the primate visual cortex.

Threshold and resilience management of coupled urbanization and water environmental system in the rapidly changing coastal region.

PubMed

Li, Yangfan; Li, Yi; Wu, Wei

2016-01-01

The concept of thresholds shows important implications for environmental and resource management. Here we derived potential landscape thresholds which indicated abrupt changes in water quality or the dividing points between exceeding and failing to meet national surface water quality standards for a rapidly urbanizing city on the Eastern Coast in China. The analysis of landscape thresholds was based on regression models linking each of the seven water quality variables to each of the six landscape metrics for this coupled land-water system. We found substantial and accelerating urban sprawl at the suburban areas between 2000 and 2008, and detected significant nonlinear relations between water quality and landscape pattern. This research demonstrated that a simple modeling technique could provide insights on environmental thresholds to support more-informed decision making in land use, water environmental and resilience management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Dynamics of a plant-herbivore-predator system with plant-toxicity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Feng, Zhilan; Qiu, Zhipeng; Liu, Rongsong; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2011-01-01

A system of ordinary differential equations is considered that models the interactions of two plant species populations, an herbivore population, and a predator population. We use a toxin-determined functional response to describe the interactions between plant species and herbivores and use a Holling Type II functional response to model the interactions between herbivores and predators. In order to study how the predators impact the succession of vegetation, we derive invasion conditions under which a plant species can invade into an environment in which another plant species is co-existing with a herbivore population with or without a predator population. These conditions provide threshold quantities for several parameters that may play a key role in the dynamics of the system. Numerical simulations are conducted to reinforce the analytical results. This model can be applied to a boreal ecosystem trophic chain to examine the possible cascading effects of predator-control actions when plant species differ in their levels of toxic defense.

Dynamics of a plant-herbivore-predator system with plant-toxicity.

PubMed

Feng, Zhilan; Qiu, Zhipeng; Liu, Rongsong; DeAngelis, Donald L

2011-02-01

A system of ordinary differential equations is considered that models the interactions of two plant species populations, an herbivore population, and a predator population. We use a toxin-determined functional response to describe the interactions between plant species and herbivores and use a Holling Type II functional response to model the interactions between herbivores and predators. In order to study how the predators impact the succession of vegetation, we derive invasion conditions under which a plant species can invade into an environment in which another plant species is co-existing with a herbivore population with or without a predator population. These conditions provide threshold quantities for several parameters that may play a key role in the dynamics of the system. Numerical simulations are conducted to reinforce the analytical results. This model can be applied to a boreal ecosystem trophic chain to examine the possible cascading effects of predator-control actions when plant species differ in their levels of toxic defense. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove range limits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavanaugh, K. C.; Kellner, J.; Cook-Patton, S.; Williams, P.; Feller, I. C.; Parker, J.

2014-12-01

Due to limitations of purely correlative species distribution models, there is a need for more integration of experimental approaches when studying impacts of climate change on species distributions. Here we used controlled experiments to identify physiological thresholds that control poleward range limits of three species of mangroves found in North America. We found that all three species exhibited a threshold response to extreme cold, but freeze tolerance thresholds varied among species. From these experiments we developed a climate metric, freeze degree days (FDD), which incorporates both the intensity and frequency of freezes. When included in distribution models, FDD was a better predictor of mangrove presence/absence than other temperature-based metrics. Using 27 years of satellite imagery, we linked FDD to past changes in mangrove abundance in Florida, further supporting the relevance of FDD. We then used downscaled climate projections of FDD to project poleward migration of these range limits over the next 50 years.

Cooperation and charity in spatial public goods game under different strategy update rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yixiao; Jin, Xiaogang; Su, Xianchuang; Kong, Fansheng; Peng, Chengbin

2010-03-01

Human cooperation can be influenced by other human behaviors and recent years have witnessed the flourishing of studying the coevolution of cooperation and punishment, yet the common behavior of charity is seldom considered in game-theoretical models. In this article, we investigate the coevolution of altruistic cooperation and egalitarian charity in spatial public goods game, by considering charity as the behavior of reducing inter-individual payoff differences. Our model is that, in each generation of the evolution, individuals play games first and accumulate payoff benefits, and then each egalitarian makes a charity donation by payoff transfer in its neighborhood. To study the individual-level evolutionary dynamics, we adopt different strategy update rules and investigate their effects on charity and cooperation. These rules can be classified into two global rules: random selection rule in which individuals randomly update strategies, and threshold selection rule where only those with payoffs below a threshold update strategies. Simulation results show that random selection enhances the cooperation level, while threshold selection lowers the threshold of the multiplication factor to maintain cooperation. When charity is considered, it is incapable in promoting cooperation under random selection, whereas it promotes cooperation under threshold selection. Interestingly, the evolution of charity strongly depends on the dispersion of payoff acquisitions of the population, which agrees with previous results. Our work may shed light on understanding human egalitarianism.

Analysis of lethal and sublethal impacts of environmental disasters on sperm whales using stochastic modeling.

PubMed

Ackleh, Azmy S; Chiquet, Ross A; Ma, Baoling; Tang, Tingting; Caswell, Hal; Veprauskas, Amy; Sidorovskaia, Natalia

2017-08-01

Mathematical models are essential for combining data from multiple sources to quantify population endpoints. This is especially true for species, such as marine mammals, for which data on vital rates are difficult to obtain. Since the effects of an environmental disaster are not fixed, we develop time-varying (nonautonomous) matrix population models that account for the eventual recovery of the environment to the pre-disaster state. We use these models to investigate how lethal and sublethal impacts (in the form of reductions in the survival and fecundity, respectively) affect the population's recovery process. We explore two scenarios of the environmental recovery process and include the effect of demographic stochasticity. Our results provide insights into the relationship between the magnitude of the disaster, the duration of the disaster, and the probability that the population recovers to pre-disaster levels or a biologically relevant threshold level. To illustrate this modeling methodology, we provide an application to a sperm whale population. This application was motivated by the 2010 Deepwater Horizon oil rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico that has impacted a wide variety of species populations including oysters, fish, corals, and whales.

Predicting the threshold of pulse-train electrical stimuli using a stochastic auditory nerve model: the effects of stimulus noise.

PubMed

Xu, Yifang; Collins, Leslie M

2004-04-01

The incorporation of low levels of noise into an electrical stimulus has been shown to improve auditory thresholds in some human subjects (Zeng et al., 2000). In this paper, thresholds for noise-modulated pulse-train stimuli are predicted utilizing a stochastic neural-behavioral model of ensemble fiber responses to bi-phasic stimuli. The neural refractory effect is described using a Markov model for a noise-free pulse-train stimulus and a closed-form solution for the steady-state neural response is provided. For noise-modulated pulse-train stimuli, a recursive method using the conditional probability is utilized to track the neural responses to each successive pulse. A neural spike count rule has been presented for both threshold and intensity discrimination under the assumption that auditory perception occurs via integration over a relatively long time period (Bruce et al., 1999). An alternative approach originates from the hypothesis of the multilook model (Viemeister and Wakefield, 1991), which argues that auditory perception is based on several shorter time integrations and may suggest an NofM model for prediction of pulse-train threshold. This motivates analyzing the neural response to each individual pulse within a pulse train, which is considered to be the brief look. A logarithmic rule is hypothesized for pulse-train threshold. Predictions from the multilook model are shown to match trends in psychophysical data for noise-free stimuli that are not always matched by the long-time integration rule. Theoretical predictions indicate that threshold decreases as noise variance increases. Theoretical models of the neural response to pulse-train stimuli not only reduce calculational overhead but also facilitate utilization of signal detection theory and are easily extended to multichannel psychophysical tasks.

Predictive performance of rainfall thresholds for shallow landslides in Switzerland from gridded daily data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonarduzzi, Elena; Molnar, Peter; McArdell, Brian W.

2017-08-01

A high-resolution gridded daily precipitation data set was combined with a landslide inventory containing over 2000 events in the period 1972-2012 to analyze rainfall thresholds which lead to landsliding in Switzerland. We colocated triggering rainfall to landslides, developed distributions of triggering and nontriggering rainfall event properties, and determined rainfall thresholds and intensity-duration ID curves and validated their performance. The best predictive performance was obtained by the intensity-duration ID threshold curve, followed by peak daily intensity Imax and mean event intensity Imean. Event duration by itself had very low predictive power. A single country-wide threshold of Imax = 28 mm/d was extended into space by regionalization based on surface erodibility and local climate (mean daily precipitation). It was found that wetter local climate and lower erodibility led to significantly higher rainfall thresholds required to trigger landslides. However, we showed that the improvement in model performance due to regionalization was marginal and much lower than what can be achieved by having a high-quality landslide database. Reference cases in which the landslide locations and timing were randomized and the landslide sample size was reduced showed the sensitivity of the Imax rainfall threshold model. Jack-knife and cross-validation experiments demonstrated that the model was robust. The results reported here highlight the potential of using rainfall ID threshold curves and rainfall threshold values for predicting the occurrence of landslides on a country or regional scale with possible applications in landslide warning systems, even with daily data.

Statistical sex determination from craniometrics: Comparison of linear discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and support vector machines.

PubMed

Santos, Frédéric; Guyomarc'h, Pierre; Bruzek, Jaroslav

2014-12-01

Accuracy of identification tools in forensic anthropology primarily rely upon the variations inherent in the data upon which they are built. Sex determination methods based on craniometrics are widely used and known to be specific to several factors (e.g. sample distribution, population, age, secular trends, measurement technique, etc.). The goal of this study is to discuss the potential variations linked to the statistical treatment of the data. Traditional craniometrics of four samples extracted from documented osteological collections (from Portugal, France, the U.S.A., and Thailand) were used to test three different classification methods: linear discriminant analysis (LDA), logistic regression (LR), and support vector machines (SVM). The Portuguese sample was set as a training model on which the other samples were applied in order to assess the validity and reliability of the different models. The tests were performed using different parameters: some included the selection of the best predictors; some included a strict decision threshold (sex assessed only if the related posterior probability was high, including the notion of indeterminate result); and some used an unbalanced sex-ratio. Results indicated that LR tends to perform slightly better than the other techniques and offers a better selection of predictors. Also, the use of a decision threshold (i.e. p>0.95) is essential to ensure an acceptable reliability of sex determination methods based on craniometrics. Although the Portuguese, French, and American samples share a similar sexual dimorphism, application of Western models on the Thai sample (that displayed a lower degree of dimorphism) was unsuccessful. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stable target opinion through power-law bias in information exchange

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Datta, Amitava

2018-04-01

We study a model of binary decision making when a certain population of agents is initially seeded with two different opinions, "+" and "-," with fractions p1 and p2, respectively, p1+p2=1 . Individuals can reverse their initial opinion only once based on this information exchange. We study this model on a completely connected network, where any pair of agents can exchange information, and a two-dimensional square lattice with periodic boundary conditions, where information exchange is possible only between the nearest neighbors. We propose a model in which each agent maintains two counters of opposite opinions and accepts opinions of other agents with a power-law bias until a threshold is reached, when they fix their final opinion. Our model is inspired by the study of negativity bias and positive-negative asymmetry, which has been known in the psychology literature for a long time. Our model can achieve a stable intermediate mix of positive and negative opinions in a population. In particular, we show that it is possible to achieve close to any fraction p3, 0 ≤p3≤1 , of "-" opinion starting from an initial fraction p1 of "-" opinion by applying a bias through adjusting the power-law exponent of p3.

Stable target opinion through power-law bias in information exchange.

PubMed

Datta, Amitava

2018-04-01

We study a model of binary decision making when a certain population of agents is initially seeded with two different opinions, "+" and "-," with fractions p_{1} and p_{2}, respectively, p_{1}+p_{2}=1. Individuals can reverse their initial opinion only once based on this information exchange. We study this model on a completely connected network, where any pair of agents can exchange information, and a two-dimensional square lattice with periodic boundary conditions, where information exchange is possible only between the nearest neighbors. We propose a model in which each agent maintains two counters of opposite opinions and accepts opinions of other agents with a power-law bias until a threshold is reached, when they fix their final opinion. Our model is inspired by the study of negativity bias and positive-negative asymmetry, which has been known in the psychology literature for a long time. Our model can achieve a stable intermediate mix of positive and negative opinions in a population. In particular, we show that it is possible to achieve close to any fraction p_{3}, 0≤p_{3}≤1, of "-" opinion starting from an initial fraction p_{1} of "-" opinion by applying a bias through adjusting the power-law exponent of p_{3}.

Modeling the impact of impulsive stimuli on sleep-wake dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulcher, B. D.; Phillips, A. J. K.; Robinson, P. A.

2008-11-01

A neuronal population model of the sleep-wake switch is extended to incorporate impulsive external stimuli. The model includes the mutual inhibition of the sleep-active neurons in the hypothalamic ventrolateral preoptic area (VLPO) and the wake-active monoaminergic brainstem populations (MA), as well as circadian and homeostatic drives. Arbitrary stimuli are described in terms of their relative effects on the VLPO and MA nuclei and represent perturbations on the normal sleep-wake dynamics. By separating the model’s intrinsic time scales, an analytic characterization of the dynamics in a reduced model space is developed. Using this representation, the model’s response to stimuli is studied, including the latency to return to wake or sleep, or to elicit a transition between the two states. Since sensory stimuli are known to excite the MA, we correspondingly investigate the model’s response to auditory tones during sleep, as in clinical sleep fragmentation studies. The arousal threshold is found to vary approximately linearly with the model’s total sleep drive, which includes circadian and homeostatic components. This relationship is used to reproduce the clinically observed variation of the arousal threshold across the night, which rises to a maximum near the middle of the night and decreases thereafter. In a further application of the model, time-of-night arousal threshold and body temperature variations in an experimental sleep fragmentation study are replicated. It is proposed that the shift of the extrema of these curves to a greater magnitude later in the night is due to the homeostatic impact of the frequent nocturnal disturbances. By modeling the underlying neuronal interactions, the methods presented here allow the prediction of arousal state responses to external stimuli. This methodology is fundamentally different to previous approaches that model the clinical data within a phenomenological framework. As a result, a broader understanding of how impulsive external stimuli modulate arousal is gained.

Cumulative risk effects for the development of behaviour difficulties in children and adolescents with special educational needs and disabilities.

PubMed

Oldfield, Jeremy; Humphrey, Neil; Hebron, Judith

2015-01-01

Research has identified multiple risk factors for the development of behaviour difficulties. What have been less explored are the cumulative effects of exposure to multiple risks on behavioural outcomes, with no study specifically investigating these effects within a population of young people with special educational needs and disabilities (SEND). Furthermore, it is unclear whether a threshold or linear risk model better fits the data for this population. The sample included 2660 children and 1628 adolescents with SEND. Risk factors associated with increases in behaviour difficulties over an 18-month period were summed to create a cumulative risk score, with this explanatory variable being added into a multi-level model. A quadratic term was then added to test the threshold model. There was evidence of a cumulative risk effect, suggesting that exposure to higher numbers of risk factors, regardless of their exact nature, resulted in increased behaviour difficulties. The relationship between risk and behaviour difficulties was non-linear, with exposure to increasing risk having a disproportionate and detrimental impact on behaviour difficulties in child and adolescent models. Interventions aimed at reducing behaviour difficulties need to consider the impact of multiple risk variables. Tailoring interventions towards those exposed to large numbers of risks would be advantageous. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Transmission thresholds for dengue in terms of Aedes aegypti pupae per person with discussion of their utility in source reduction efforts.

PubMed

Focks, D A; Brenner, R J; Hayes, J; Daniels, E

2000-01-01

The expense and ineffectiveness of drift-based insecticide aerosols to control dengue epidemics has led to suppression strategies based on eliminating larval breeding sites. With the notable but short-lived exceptions of Cuba and Singapore, these source reduction efforts have met with little documented success; failure has chiefly been attributed to inadequate participation of the communities involved. The present work attempts to estimate transmission thresholds for dengue based on an easily-derived statistic, the standing crop of Aedes aegypti pupae per person in the environment. We have developed these thresholds for use in the assessment of risk of transmission and to provide targets for the actual degree of suppression required to prevent or eliminate transmission in source reduction programs. The notion of thresholds is based on 2 concepts: the mass action principal-the course of an epidemic is dependent on the rate of contact between susceptible hosts and infectious vectors, and threshold theory-the introduction of a few infectious individuals into a community of susceptible individuals will not give rise to an outbreak unless the density of vectors exceeds a certain critical level. We use validated transmission models to estimate thresholds as a function of levels of pre-existing antibody levels in human populations, ambient air temperatures, and size and frequency of viral introduction. Threshold levels were estimated to range between about 0.5 and 1.5 Ae. aegypti pupae per person for ambient air temperatures of 28 degrees C and initial seroprevalences ranging between 0% to 67%. Surprisingly, the size of the viral introduction used in these studies, ranging between 1 and 12 infectious individuals per year, was not seen to significantly influence the magnitude of the threshold. From a control perspective, these results are not particularly encouraging. The ratio of Ae. aegypti pupae to human density has been observed in limited field studies to range between 0.3 and >60 in 25 sites in dengue-endemic or dengue-susceptible areas in the Caribbean, Central America, and Southeast Asia. If, for purposes of illustration, we assume an initial seroprevalence of 33%, the degree of suppression required to essentially eliminate the possibility of summertime transmission in Puerto Rico, Honduras, and Bangkok, Thailand was estimated to range between 10% and 83%; however in Mexico and Trinidad, reductions of >90% would be required. A clearer picture of the actual magnitude of the reductions required to eliminate the threat of transmission is provided by the ratio of the observed standing crop of Ae. aegypti pupae per person and the threshold. For example, in a site in Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, the ratio of observed and threshold was 1.7, meaning roughly that about 7 of every 17 breeding containers would have to be eliminated. For Reynosa, Mexico, with a ratio of approximately 10, 9 of every 10 containers would have to be eliminated. For sites in Trinidad with ratios averaging approximately 25, the elimination of 24 of every 25 would be required. With the exceptions of Cuba and Singapore, no published reports of sustained source reduction efforts have achieved anything near these levels of reductions in breeding containers. Practical advice on the use of thresholds is provided for operational control projects.

Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes.

PubMed

Naujokaitis-Lewis, Ilona; Curtis, Janelle M R

2016-01-01

Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0) that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat attributes along with demographic parameters in sensitivity routines. GRIP 2.0 is an important decision-support tool that can be used to prioritize research, identify habitat-based thresholds and management intervention points to improve probability of species persistence, and evaluate trade-offs of alternative management options.

Advances in global sensitivity analyses of demographic-based species distribution models to address uncertainties in dynamic landscapes

PubMed Central

Curtis, Janelle M.R.

2016-01-01

Developing a rigorous understanding of multiple global threats to species persistence requires the use of integrated modeling methods that capture processes which influence species distributions. Species distribution models (SDMs) coupled with population dynamics models can incorporate relationships between changing environments and demographics and are increasingly used to quantify relative extinction risks associated with climate and land-use changes. Despite their appeal, uncertainties associated with complex models can undermine their usefulness for advancing predictive ecology and informing conservation management decisions. We developed a computationally-efficient and freely available tool (GRIP 2.0) that implements and automates a global sensitivity analysis of coupled SDM-population dynamics models for comparing the relative influence of demographic parameters and habitat attributes on predicted extinction risk. Advances over previous global sensitivity analyses include the ability to vary habitat suitability across gradients, as well as habitat amount and configuration of spatially-explicit suitability maps of real and simulated landscapes. Using GRIP 2.0, we carried out a multi-model global sensitivity analysis of a coupled SDM-population dynamics model of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in Mount Rainier National Park as a case study and quantified the relative influence of input parameters and their interactions on model predictions. Our results differed from the one-at-time analyses used in the original study, and we found that the most influential parameters included the total amount of suitable habitat within the landscape, survival rates, and effects of a prevalent disease, white pine blister rust. Strong interactions between habitat amount and survival rates of older trees suggests the importance of habitat in mediating the negative influences of white pine blister rust. Our results underscore the importance of considering habitat attributes along with demographic parameters in sensitivity routines. GRIP 2.0 is an important decision-support tool that can be used to prioritize research, identify habitat-based thresholds and management intervention points to improve probability of species persistence, and evaluate trade-offs of alternative management options. PMID:27547529

Improving of local ozone forecasting by integrated models.

PubMed

Gradišar, Dejan; Grašič, Boštjan; Božnar, Marija Zlata; Mlakar, Primož; Kocijan, Juš

2016-09-01

This paper discuss the problem of forecasting the maximum ozone concentrations in urban microlocations, where reliable alerting of the local population when thresholds have been surpassed is necessary. To improve the forecast, the methodology of integrated models is proposed. The model is based on multilayer perceptron neural networks that use as inputs all available information from QualeAria air-quality model, WRF numerical weather prediction model and onsite measurements of meteorology and air pollution. While air-quality and meteorological models cover large geographical 3-dimensional space, their local resolution is often not satisfactory. On the other hand, empirical methods have the advantage of good local forecasts. In this paper, integrated models are used for improved 1-day-ahead forecasting of the maximum hourly value of ozone within each day for representative locations in Slovenia. The WRF meteorological model is used for forecasting meteorological variables and the QualeAria air-quality model for gas concentrations. Their predictions, together with measurements from ground stations, are used as inputs to a neural network. The model validation results show that integrated models noticeably improve ozone forecasts and provide better alert systems.

Perl-speaks-NONMEM (PsN)--a Perl module for NONMEM related programming.

PubMed

Lindbom, Lars; Ribbing, Jakob; Jonsson, E Niclas

2004-08-01

The NONMEM program is the most widely used nonlinear regression software in population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) analyses. In this article we describe a programming library, Perl-speaks-NONMEM (PsN), intended for programmers that aim at using the computational capability of NONMEM in external applications. The library is object oriented and written in the programming language Perl. The classes of the library are built around NONMEM's data, model and output files. The specification of the NONMEM model is easily set or changed through the model and data file classes while the output from a model fit is accessed through the output file class. The classes have methods that help the programmer perform common repetitive tasks, e.g. summarising the output from a NONMEM run, setting the initial estimates of a model based on a previous run or truncating values over a certain threshold in the data file. PsN creates a basis for the development of high-level software using NONMEM as the regression tool.

Relation between fasting glucose and retinopathy for diagnosis of diabetes: three population-based cross-sectional studies.

PubMed

Wong, Tien Y; Liew, Gerald; Tapp, Robyn J; Schmidt, Maria Inês; Wang, Jie Jin; Mitchell, Paul; Klein, Ronald; Klein, Barbara E K; Zimmet, Paul; Shaw, Jonathan

2008-03-01

The WHO and American Diabetes Association criteria for diagnosing diabetes mellitus assume the presence of a glycaemic threshold with high sensitivity for identifying retinopathy. However, this assumption is based on data from three previous studies that had important limitations in detecting retinopathy. We aimed to provide updated data for the relation between fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and retinopathy, and to assess the diagnostic accuracy of current FPG thresholds in identifying both prevalent and incident retinopathy. We examined the data from three cross-sectional adult populations: those in the Blue Mountains Eye Study (BMES, Australia, n=3162), the Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab, Australia, n=2182), and the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA, USA, n=6079). Retinopathy was diagnosed from multiple retinal photographs of each eye, and graded according to the modified Airlie House Classification system. Plasma glucose concentrations were measured from fasting venous blood samples. The overall prevalence of retinopathy was 11.5% in BMES (95% CI 10.4-12.6%), 9.6% in AusDiab (8.4-10.9), and 15.8% in MESA (14.9-16.7). However, we found inconsistent evidence of a uniform glycaemic threshold for prevalent and incident retinopathy, with analyses suggesting a continuous relation. The widely used diabetes FPG cutoff of 7.0 mmol/L or higher had sensitivity less than 40% (range 14.8-39.1) for detecting retinopathy, with specificity between 80.8% and 95.8%. The area under receiver operating characteristic curves for FPG and retinopathy was low and ranged from 0.56 to 0.61. We saw no evidence of a clear and consistent glycaemic threshold for the presence or incidence of retinopathy across different populations. The current FPG cutoff of 7.0 mmol/L used to diagnose diabetes did not accurately identify people with and without retinopathy. These findings suggest that the criteria for diagnosing diabetes could need reassessment.

Using Mechanistic Studies to Model Riparian Tree Establishment Under Environmental Flow Scenarios on Regulated Rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stella, J. C.; Battles, J. J.; McBride, J. R.; Orr, B. K.

2007-12-01

In the Central Valley of California, pioneer cottonwood and willow species dominate the near-river forests. Historically, seedling recruitment for these disturbance-adapted species coincided with spring floods. Changes in flow timing and magnitude due to river regulation have decreased the success of seedling cohorts and contributed to the decline of these riparian tree populations. In order to address gaps in our understanding of these species and potential restoration strategies, we field-calibrated a conceptual model of seedling recruitment for the dominant pioneer woody species, Populus fremontii, Salix gooddingii, and S. exigua. We conducted experiments to identify seedling desiccation thresholds and seed longevity, used field studies to measure seedling competition and seasonal seed release patterns, and modeled interannual differences in dispersal timing using a degree-day model. These studies were integrated into a recruitment model that generates annual estimates of seedling density and bank elevation based on inputs of seasonal river discharge, seed dispersal timing, and seedling mortality from desiccation. The model predictions successfully captured interannual and species-level patterns in recruitment observed independently throughout a 20-km reach of the lower Tuolumne River from 2002-04. The model correctly predicted that seedling densities were highest in 2004 and lowest in 2003, and that S. exigua recruitment would be less extensive than for the two tree species. This work shows promise as both a quantitative approach linking hydrology, climate and plant community dynamics, and as a process-based framework for guiding flow releases and other management actions to restore riparian tree population along Central Valley rivers.

Cost-effectiveness of different strategies for selecting and treating individuals at increased risk of osteoporosis or osteopenia: a systematic review.

PubMed

Müller, Dirk; Pulm, Jannis; Gandjour, Afschin

2012-01-01

To compare cost-effectiveness modeling analyses of strategies to prevent osteoporotic and osteopenic fractures either based on fixed thresholds using bone mineral density or based on variable thresholds including bone mineral density and clinical risk factors. A systematic review was performed by using the MEDLINE database and reference lists from previous reviews. On the basis of predefined inclusion/exclusion criteria, we identified relevant studies published since January 2006. Articles included for the review were assessed for their methodological quality and results. The literature search resulted in 24 analyses, 14 of them using a fixed-threshold approach and 10 using a variable-threshold approach. On average, 70% of the criteria for methodological quality were fulfilled, but almost half of the analyses did not include medication adherence in the base case. The results of variable-threshold strategies were more homogeneous and showed more favorable incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared with those based on a fixed threshold with bone mineral density. For analyses with fixed thresholds, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios varied from €80,000 per quality-adjusted life-year in women aged 55 years to cost saving in women aged 80 years. For analyses with variable thresholds, the range was €47,000 to cost savings. Risk assessment using variable thresholds appears to be more cost-effective than selecting high-risk individuals by fixed thresholds. Although the overall quality of the studies was fairly good, future economic analyses should further improve their methods, particularly in terms of including more fracture types, incorporating medication adherence, and including or discussing unrelated costs during added life-years. Copyright © 2012 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Potential Population Consequences of Active Sonar Disturbance in Atlantic Herring: Estimating the Maximum Risk.

PubMed

Sivle, Lise Doksæter; Kvadsheim, Petter Helgevold; Ainslie, Michael

2016-01-01

Effects of noise on fish populations may be predicted by the population consequence of acoustic disturbance (PCAD) model. We have predicted the potential risk of population disturbance when the highest sound exposure level (SEL) at which adult herring do not respond to naval sonar (SEL(0)) is exceeded. When the population density is low (feeding), the risk is low even at high sonar source levels and long-duration exercises (>24 h). With densely packed populations (overwintering), a sonar exercise might expose the entire population to levels >SEL(0) within a 24-h exercise period. However, the disturbance will be short and the response threshold used here is highly conservative. It is therefore unlikely that naval sonar will significantly impact the herring population.

Optimal control strategy for a novel computer virus propagation model on scale-free networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Chunming; Huang, Haitao

2016-06-01

This paper aims to study the combined impact of reinstalling system and network topology on the spread of computer viruses over the Internet. Based on scale-free network, this paper proposes a novel computer viruses propagation model-SLBOSmodel. A systematic analysis of this new model shows that the virus-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when its spreading threshold is less than one; nevertheless, it is proved that the viral equilibrium is permanent if the spreading threshold is greater than one. Then, the impacts of different model parameters on spreading threshold are analyzed. Next, an optimally controlled SLBOS epidemic model on complex networks is also studied. We prove that there is an optimal control existing for the control problem. Some numerical simulations are finally given to illustrate the main results.

Cost-effectiveness of competing strategies for management of recurrent Clostridium difficile infection: a decision analysis.

PubMed

Konijeti, Gauree G; Sauk, Jenny; Shrime, Mark G; Gupta, Meera; Ananthakrishnan, Ashwin N

2014-06-01

Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is an important cause of morbidity and healthcare costs, and is characterized by high rates of disease recurrence. The cost-effectiveness of newer treatments for recurrent CDI has not been examined, yet would be important to inform clinical practice. The aim of this study was to analyze the cost effectiveness of competing strategies for recurrent CDI. We constructed a decision-analytic model comparing 4 treatment strategies for first-line treatment of recurrent CDI in a population with a median age of 65 years: metronidazole, vancomycin, fidaxomicin, and fecal microbiota transplant (FMT). We modeled up to 2 additional recurrences following the initial recurrence. We assumed FMT delivery via colonoscopy as our base case, but conducted sensitivity analyses based on different modes of delivery. Willingness-to-pay threshold was set at $50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year. At our base case estimates, initial treatment of recurrent CDI using FMT colonoscopy was the most cost-effective strategy, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $17 016 relative to oral vancomycin. Fidaxomicin and metronidazole were both dominated by FMT colonoscopy. On sensitivity analysis, FMT colonoscopy remained the most cost-effective strategy at cure rates >88.4% and CDI recurrence rates <14.9%. Fidaxomicin required a cost <$1359 to meet our cost-effectiveness threshold. In clinical settings where FMT is not available or applicable, the preferred strategy appears to be initial treatment with oral vancomycin. In this decision analysis examining treatment strategies for recurrent CDI, we demonstrate that FMT colonoscopy is the most cost-effective initial strategy for management of recurrent CDI.

Competitive exclusion: an ecological model demonstrates how research metrics can drive women out of science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Brien, K.; Hapgood, K.

2012-12-01

While universities are often perceived within the wider population as a flexible family-friendly work environment, continuous full-time employment remains the norm in tenure track roles. This traditional career path is strongly re-inforced by research metrics, which typically measure accumulated historical performance. There is a strong feedback between historical and future research output, and there is a minimum threshold of research output below which it becomes very difficult to attract funding, high quality students and collaborators. The competing timescales of female fertility and establishment of a research career mean that many women do not exceed this threshold before having children. Using a mathematical model taken from an ecological analogy, we demonstrate how these mechanisms create substantial barriers to pursuing a research career while working part-time or returning from extended parental leave. The model highlights a conundrum for research managers: metrics can promote research productivity and excellence within an organisation, but can classify highly capable scientists as poor performers simply because they have not followed the traditional career path of continuous full-time employment. Based on this analysis, we make concrete recommendations for researchers and managers seeking to retain the skills and training invested in female scientists. We also provide survival tactics for women and men who wish to pursue a career in science while also spending substantial time and energy raising their family.

Is cooperation viable in mobile organisms? Simple Walk Away rule favors the evolution of cooperation in groups

PubMed Central

Aktipis, C. Athena

2011-01-01

The evolution of cooperation through partner choice mechanisms is often thought to involve relatively complex cognitive abilities. Using agent-based simulations I model a simple partner choice rule, the ‘Walk Away’ rule, where individuals stay in groups that provide higher returns (by virtue of having more cooperators), and ‘Walk Away’ from groups providing low returns. Implementing this conditional movement rule in a public goods game leads to a number of interesting findings: 1) cooperators have a selective advantage when thresholds are high, corresponding to low tolerance for defectors, 2) high thresholds lead to high initial rates of movement and low final rates of movement (after selection), and 3) as cooperation is selected, the population undergoes a spatial transition from high migration (and a many small and ephemeral groups) to low migration (and large and stable groups). These results suggest that the very simple ‘Walk Away’ rule of leaving uncooperative groups can favor the evolution of cooperation, and that cooperation can evolve in populations in which individuals are able to move in response to local social conditions. A diverse array of organisms are able to leave degraded physical or social environments. The ubiquitous nature of conditional movement suggests that ‘Walk Away’ dynamics may play an important role in the evolution of social behavior in both cognitively complex and cognitively simple organisms. PMID:21666771

Learning dynamics in social dilemmas

PubMed Central

Macy, Michael W.; Flache, Andreas

2002-01-01

The Nash equilibrium, the main solution concept in analytical game theory, cannot make precise predictions about the outcome of repeated mixed-motive games. Nor can it tell us much about the dynamics by which a population of players moves from one equilibrium to another. These limitations, along with concerns about the cognitive demands of forward-looking rationality, have motivated efforts to explore backward-looking alternatives to analytical game theory. Most of the effort has been invested in evolutionary models of population dynamics. We shift attention to a learning-theoretic alternative. Computational experiments with adaptive agents identify a fundamental solution concept for social dilemmas–−stochastic collusion–−based on a random walk from a self-limiting noncooperative equilibrium into a self-reinforcing cooperative equilibrium. However, we show that this solution is viable only within a narrow range of aspiration levels. Below the lower threshold, agents are pulled into a deficient equilibrium that is a stronger attractor than mutual cooperation. Above the upper threshold, agents are dissatisfied with mutual cooperation. Aspirations that adapt with experience (producing habituation to stimuli) do not gravitate into the window of viability; rather, they are the worst of both worlds. Habituation destabilizes cooperation and stabilizes defection. Results from the two-person problem suggest that applications to multiplex and embedded relationships will yield unexpected insights into the global dynamics of cooperation in social dilemmas. PMID:12011402

Enhanced Sensitivity to Rapid Input Fluctuations by Nonlinear Threshold Dynamics in Neocortical Pyramidal Neurons

PubMed Central

Mensi, Skander; Hagens, Olivier; Gerstner, Wulfram; Pozzorini, Christian

2016-01-01

The way in which single neurons transform input into output spike trains has fundamental consequences for network coding. Theories and modeling studies based on standard Integrate-and-Fire models implicitly assume that, in response to increasingly strong inputs, neurons modify their coding strategy by progressively reducing their selective sensitivity to rapid input fluctuations. Combining mathematical modeling with in vitro experiments, we demonstrate that, in L5 pyramidal neurons, the firing threshold dynamics adaptively adjust the effective timescale of somatic integration in order to preserve sensitivity to rapid signals over a broad range of input statistics. For that, a new Generalized Integrate-and-Fire model featuring nonlinear firing threshold dynamics and conductance-based adaptation is introduced that outperforms state-of-the-art neuron models in predicting the spiking activity of neurons responding to a variety of in vivo-like fluctuating currents. Our model allows for efficient parameter extraction and can be analytically mapped to a Generalized Linear Model in which both the input filter—describing somatic integration—and the spike-history filter—accounting for spike-frequency adaptation—dynamically adapt to the input statistics, as experimentally observed. Overall, our results provide new insights on the computational role of different biophysical processes known to underlie adaptive coding in single neurons and support previous theoretical findings indicating that the nonlinear dynamics of the firing threshold due to Na+-channel inactivation regulate the sensitivity to rapid input fluctuations. PMID:26907675

Model of the final borehole geometry for helical laser drilling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kroschel, Alexander; Michalowski, Andreas; Graf, Thomas

2018-05-01

A model for predicting the borehole geometry for laser drilling is presented based on the calculation of a surface of constant absorbed fluence. It is applicable to helical drilling of through-holes with ultrashort laser pulses. The threshold fluence describing the borehole surface is fitted for best agreement with experimental data in the form of cross-sections of through-holes of different shapes and sizes in stainless steel samples. The fitted value is similar to ablation threshold fluence values reported for laser ablation models.

Ages and Stages Questionnaire at 3 Years for Predicting IQ at 5-6 Years.

PubMed

Charkaluk, Marie-Laure; Rousseau, Jessica; Calderon, Johanna; Bernard, Jonathan Y; Forhan, Anne; Heude, Barbara; Kaminski, Monique

2017-04-01

To assess the predictive value of the 36-month Ages & Stages Questionnaire (ASQ) score for IQ score at age 5 to 6 years in the general population and to identify factors associated with IQ <85 once the ASQ score is taken into account. Data were collected from 939 children enrolled in a population-based prospective cohort study. Developmental outcomes at 36 months were assessed via the ASQ and at 5 to 6 years via the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence. The ASQ threshold was identified via the receiver operating characteristic curve. Additional predictive factors to obtain an IQ <85 were investigated, and their interaction with ASQ score was studied. Sixty-nine children (7.3%) had an IQ <85. A 36-month ASQ score threshold of 270 was optimal to identify children with an IQ <85 at 5 to 6 years, with a 0.77 ± 0.11 sensitivity and 0.68 ± 0.03 specificity. Maternal educational level and occupational activity at the time of ASQ completion were associated with the risk of an IQ <85 at a given ASQ level. In the multivariate model, no interaction between the studied factors and ASQ score reached significance. In the general pediatric population, 36-month ASQ parental reports could be used to identify children at later risk of cognitive delay. Low maternal education level should also be considered as a major risk factor for lower IQ in preschool children regardless of ASQ score. Copyright © 2017 by the American Academy of Pediatrics.