E-Portfolios: Concepts, Designs, and Integration within Student Affairs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garis, Jeff W.

2007-01-01

This chapter provides an overview of e-portfolio concepts and designs. It describes a model that outlines an array of dimensions for the categorization of e-portfolio systems, reviews selected systems, and makes observations regarding the importance for student affairs units to understand, collaborate, and include e-portfolio systems within their…

Deformed exponentials and portfolio selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodrigues, Ana Flávia P.; Guerreiro, Igor M.; Cavalcante, Charles Casimiro

In this paper, we present a method for portfolio selection based on the consideration on deformed exponentials in order to generalize the methods based on the gaussianity of the returns in portfolio, such as the Markowitz model. The proposed method generalizes the idea of optimizing mean-variance and mean-divergence models and allows a more accurate behavior for situations where heavy-tails distributions are necessary to describe the returns in a given time instant, such as those observed in economic crises. Numerical results show the proposed method outperforms the Markowitz portfolio for the cumulated returns with a good convergence rate of the weights for the assets which are searched by means of a natural gradient algorithm.

Portfolios with fuzzy returns: Selection strategies based on semi-infinite programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vercher, Enriqueta

2008-08-01

This paper provides new models for portfolio selection in which the returns on securities are considered fuzzy numbers rather than random variables. The investor's problem is to find the portfolio that minimizes the risk of achieving a return that is not less than the return of a riskless asset. The corresponding optimal portfolio is derived using semi-infinite programming in a soft framework. The return on each asset and their membership functions are described using historical data. The investment risk is approximated by mean intervals which evaluate the downside risk for a given fuzzy portfolio. This approach is illustrated with a numerical example.

A hybrid intelligent algorithm for portfolio selection problem with fuzzy returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xiang; Zhang, Yang; Wong, Hau-San; Qin, Zhongfeng

2009-11-01

Portfolio selection theory with fuzzy returns has been well developed and widely applied. Within the framework of credibility theory, several fuzzy portfolio selection models have been proposed such as mean-variance model, entropy optimization model, chance constrained programming model and so on. In order to solve these nonlinear optimization models, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed by integrating simulated annealing algorithm, neural network and fuzzy simulation techniques, where the neural network is used to approximate the expected value and variance for fuzzy returns and the fuzzy simulation is used to generate the training data for neural network. Since these models are used to be solved by genetic algorithm, some comparisons between the hybrid intelligent algorithm and genetic algorithm are given in terms of numerical examples, which imply that the hybrid intelligent algorithm is robust and more effective. In particular, it reduces the running time significantly for large size problems.

Uncertain programming models for portfolio selection with uncertain returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Bo; Peng, Jin; Li, Shengguo

2015-10-01

In an indeterminacy economic environment, experts' knowledge about the returns of securities consists of much uncertainty instead of randomness. This paper discusses portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment in which security returns cannot be well reflected by historical data, but can be evaluated by the experts. In the paper, returns of securities are assumed to be given by uncertain variables. According to various decision criteria, the portfolio selection problem in uncertain environment is formulated as expected-variance-chance model and chance-expected-variance model by using the uncertainty programming. Within the framework of uncertainty theory, for the convenience of solving the models, some crisp equivalents are discussed under different conditions. In addition, a hybrid intelligent algorithm is designed in the paper to provide a general method for solving the new models in general cases. At last, two numerical examples are provided to show the performance and applications of the models and algorithm.

Noise sensitivity of portfolio selection in constant conditional correlation GARCH models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varga-Haszonits, I.; Kondor, I.

2007-11-01

This paper investigates the efficiency of minimum variance portfolio optimization for stock price movements following the Constant Conditional Correlation GARCH process proposed by Bollerslev. Simulations show that the quality of portfolio selection can be improved substantially by computing optimal portfolio weights from conditional covariances instead of unconditional ones. Measurement noise can be further reduced by applying some filtering method on the conditional correlation matrix (such as Random Matrix Theory based filtering). As an empirical support for the simulation results, the analysis is also carried out for a time series of S&P500 stock prices.

Application and project portfolio valuation using enterprise architecture and business requirements modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quartel, Dick; Steen, Maarten W. A.; Lankhorst, Marc M.

2012-05-01

This article describes an architecture-based approach to IT valuation. This approach offers organisations an instrument to valuate their application and project portfolios and to make well-balanced decisions about IT investments. The value of a software application is assessed in terms of its contribution to a selection of business goals. Based on such assessments, the value of different applications can be compared, and requirements for innovation, development, maintenance and phasing out can be identified. IT projects are proposed to realise the requirements. The value of each project is assessed in terms of the value it adds to one or more applications. This value can be obtained by relating the 'as-is' application portfolio to the 'to-be' portfolio that is being proposed by the project portfolio. In this way, projects can be ranked according to their added value, given a certain selection of business goals. The approach uses ArchiMate to model the relationship between software applications, business processes, services and products. In addition, two language extensions are used to model the relationship of these elements to business goals and requirements and to projects and project portfolios. The approach is illustrated using the portfolio method of Bedell and has been implemented in BiZZdesign Architect.

On the Endogeneity of the Mean-Variance Efficient Frontier.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Somerville, R. A.; O'Connell, Paul G. J.

2002-01-01

Explains that the endogeneity of the efficient frontier in the mean-variance model of portfolio selection is commonly obscured in portfolio selection literature and in widely used textbooks. Demonstrates endogeneity and discusses the impact of parameter changes on the mean-variance efficient frontier and on the beta coefficients of individual…

Applying the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM) to portfolio selection.

PubMed

Reyes Santos, Joost; Haimes, Yacov Y

2004-06-01

The analysis of risk-return tradeoffs and their practical applications to portfolio analysis paved the way for Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT), which won Harry Markowitz a 1992 Nobel Prize in Economics. A typical approach in measuring a portfolio's expected return is based on the historical returns of the assets included in a portfolio. On the other hand, portfolio risk is usually measured using volatility, which is derived from the historical variance-covariance relationships among the portfolio assets. This article focuses on assessing portfolio risk, with emphasis on extreme risks. To date, volatility is a major measure of risk owing to its simplicity and validity for relatively small asset price fluctuations. Volatility is a justified measure for stable market performance, but it is weak in addressing portfolio risk under aberrant market fluctuations. Extreme market crashes such as that on October 19, 1987 ("Black Monday") and catastrophic events such as the terrorist attack of September 11, 2001 that led to a four-day suspension of trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are a few examples where measuring risk via volatility can lead to inaccurate predictions. Thus, there is a need for a more robust metric of risk. By invoking the principles of the extreme-risk-analysis method through the partitioned multiobjective risk method (PMRM), this article contributes to the modeling of extreme risks in portfolio performance. A measure of an extreme portfolio risk, denoted by f(4), is defined as the conditional expectation for a lower-tail region of the distribution of the possible portfolio returns. This article presents a multiobjective problem formulation consisting of optimizing expected return and f(4), whose solution is determined using Evolver-a software that implements a genetic algorithm. Under business-as-usual market scenarios, the results of the proposed PMRM portfolio selection model are found to be compatible with those of the volatility-based model. However, under extremely unfavorable market conditions, results indicate that f(4) can be a more valid measure of risk than volatility.

Mathematical model of the loan portfolio dynamics in the form of Markov chain considering the process of new customers attraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozhalkina, Yana

2017-12-01

Mathematical model of the loan portfolio structure change in the form of Markov chain is explored. This model considers in one scheme both the process of customers attraction, their selection based on the credit score, and loans repayment. The model describes the structure and volume of the loan portfolio dynamics, which allows to make medium-term forecasts of profitability and risk. Within the model corrective actions of bank management in order to increase lending volumes or to reduce the risk are formalized.

Solving multistage stochastic programming models of portfolio selection with outstanding liabilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Edirisinghe, C.

1994-12-31

Models for portfolio selection in the presence of an outstanding liability have received significant attention, for example, models for pricing options. The problem may be described briefly as follows: given a set of risky securities (and a riskless security such as a bond), and given a set of cash flows, i.e., outstanding liability, to be met at some future date, determine an initial portfolio and a dynamic trading strategy for the underlying securities such that the initial cost of the portfolio is within a prescribed wealth level and the expected cash surpluses arising from trading is maximized. While the tradingmore » strategy should be self-financing, there may also be other restrictions such as leverage and short-sale constraints. Usually the treatment is limited to binomial evolution of uncertainty (of stock price), with possible extensions for developing computational bounds for multinomial generalizations. Posing as stochastic programming models of decision making, we investigate alternative efficient solution procedures under continuous evolution of uncertainty, for discrete time economies. We point out an important moment problem arising in the portfolio selection problem, the solution (or bounds) on which provides the basis for developing efficient computational algorithms. While the underlying stochastic program may be computationally tedious even for a modest number of trading opportunities (i.e., time periods), the derived algorithms may used to solve problems whose sizes are beyond those considered within stochastic optimization.« less

Enhanced index tracking modeling in portfolio optimization with mixed-integer programming z approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Ismail, Hamizun bin

2014-09-01

Enhanced index tracking is a popular form of portfolio management in stock market investment. Enhanced index tracking aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate excess return over the return achieved by the stock market index without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using mixed-integer programming model which adopts regression approach in order to generate higher portfolio mean return than stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of 24 component stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2012. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio of mixed-integer programming model is able to generate higher mean return than FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index return with only selecting 30% out of the total stock market index components.

Volatility forecasting for low-volatility portfolio selection in the US and the Korean equity markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Saejoon

2018-01-01

We consider the problem of low-volatility portfolio selection which has been the subject of extensive research in the field of portfolio selection. To improve the currently existing techniques that rely purely on past information to select low-volatility portfolios, this paper investigates the use of time series regression techniques that make forecasts of future volatility to select the portfolios. In particular, for the first time, the utility of support vector regression and its enhancements as portfolio selection techniques is provided. It is shown that our regression-based portfolio selection provides attractive outperformances compared to the benchmark index and the portfolio defined by a well-known strategy on the data-sets of the S&P 500 and the KOSPI 200.

Linear versus quadratic portfolio optimization model with transaction cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razak, Norhidayah Bt Ab; Kamil, Karmila Hanim; Elias, Siti Masitah

2014-06-01

Optimization model is introduced to become one of the decision making tools in investment. Hence, it is always a big challenge for investors to select the best model that could fulfill their goal in investment with respect to risk and return. In this paper we aims to discuss and compare the portfolio allocation and performance generated by quadratic and linear portfolio optimization models namely of Markowitz and Maximin model respectively. The application of these models has been proven to be significant and popular among others. However transaction cost has been debated as one of the important aspects that should be considered for portfolio reallocation as portfolio return could be significantly reduced when transaction cost is taken into consideration. Therefore, recognizing the importance to consider transaction cost value when calculating portfolio' return, we formulate this paper by using data from Shariah compliant securities listed in Bursa Malaysia. It is expected that, results from this paper will effectively justify the advantage of one model to another and shed some lights in quest to find the best decision making tools in investment for individual investors.

A comparison of portfolio selection models via application on ISE 100 index data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Altun, Emrah; Tatlidil, Hüseyin

2013-10-01

Markowitz Model, a classical approach to portfolio optimization problem, relies on two important assumptions: the expected return is multivariate normally distributed and the investor is risk averter. But this model has not been extensively used in finance. Empirical results show that it is very hard to solve large scale portfolio optimization problems with Mean-Variance (M-V)model. Alternative model, Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) model which is proposed by Konno and Yamazaki [7] has been used to remove most of difficulties of Markowitz Mean-Variance model. MAD model don't need to assume that the probability of the rates of return is normally distributed and based on Linear Programming. Another alternative portfolio model is Mean-Lower Semi Absolute Deviation (M-LSAD), which is proposed by Speranza [3]. We will compare these models to determine which model gives more appropriate solution to investors.

Continuous-time mean-variance portfolio selection with value-at-risk and no-shorting constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Wei

2012-01-01

An investment problem is considered with dynamic mean-variance(M-V) portfolio criterion under discontinuous prices which follow jump-diffusion processes according to the actual prices of stocks and the normality and stability of the financial market. The short-selling of stocks is prohibited in this mathematical model. Then, the corresponding stochastic Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB) equation of the problem is presented and the solution of the stochastic HJB equation based on the theory of stochastic LQ control and viscosity solution is obtained. The efficient frontier and optimal strategies of the original dynamic M-V portfolio selection problem are also provided. And then, the effects on efficient frontier under the value-at-risk constraint are illustrated. Finally, an example illustrating the discontinuous prices based on M-V portfolio selection is presented.

Portfolio Optimization of Nanomaterial Use in Clean Energy Technologies.

PubMed

Moore, Elizabeth A; Babbitt, Callie W; Gaustad, Gabrielle; Moore, Sean T

2018-04-03

While engineered nanomaterials (ENMs) are increasingly incorporated in diverse applications, risks of ENM adoption remain difficult to predict and mitigate proactively. Current decision-making tools do not adequately account for ENM uncertainties including varying functional forms, unique environmental behavior, economic costs, unknown supply and demand, and upstream emissions. The complexity of the ENM system necessitates a novel approach: in this study, the adaptation of an investment portfolio optimization model is demonstrated for optimization of ENM use in renewable energy technologies. Where a traditional investment portfolio optimization model maximizes return on investment through optimal selection of stock, ENM portfolio optimization maximizes the performance of energy technology systems by optimizing selective use of ENMs. Cumulative impacts of multiple ENM material portfolios are evaluated in two case studies: organic photovoltaic cells (OPVs) for renewable energy and lithium-ion batteries (LIBs) for electric vehicles. Results indicate ENM adoption is dependent on overall performance and variance of the material, resource use, environmental impact, and economic trade-offs. From a sustainability perspective, improved clean energy applications can help extend product lifespans, reduce fossil energy consumption, and substitute ENMs for scarce incumbent materials.

Optimal portfolio strategy with cross-correlation matrix composed by DCCA coefficients: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xuelian; Liu, Zixian

2016-02-01

In this paper, a new estimator of correlation matrix is proposed, which is composed of the detrended cross-correlation coefficients (DCCA coefficients), to improve portfolio optimization. In contrast to Pearson's correlation coefficients (PCC), DCCA coefficients acquired by the detrended cross-correlation analysis (DCCA) method can describe the nonlinear correlation between assets, and can be decomposed in different time scales. These properties of DCCA make it possible to improve the investment effect and more valuable to investigate the scale behaviors of portfolios. The minimum variance portfolio (MVP) model and the Mean-Variance (MV) model are used to evaluate the effectiveness of this improvement. Stability analysis shows the effect of two kinds of correlation matrices on the estimation error of portfolio weights. The observed scale behaviors are significant to risk management and could be used to optimize the portfolio selection.

Dynamic Portfolio Strategy Using Clustering Approach

PubMed Central

Lu, Ya-Nan; Li, Sai-Ping; Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Zhong, Li-Xin; Qiu, Tian

2017-01-01

The problem of portfolio optimization is one of the most important issues in asset management. We here propose a new dynamic portfolio strategy based on the time-varying structures of MST networks in Chinese stock markets, where the market condition is further considered when using the optimal portfolios for investment. A portfolio strategy comprises two stages: First, select the portfolios by choosing central and peripheral stocks in the selection horizon using five topological parameters, namely degree, betweenness centrality, distance on degree criterion, distance on correlation criterion and distance on distance criterion. Second, use the portfolios for investment in the investment horizon. The optimal portfolio is chosen by comparing central and peripheral portfolios under different combinations of market conditions in the selection and investment horizons. Market conditions in our paper are identified by the ratios of the number of trading days with rising index to the total number of trading days, or the sum of the amplitudes of the trading days with rising index to the sum of the amplitudes of the total trading days. We find that central portfolios outperform peripheral portfolios when the market is under a drawup condition, or when the market is stable or drawup in the selection horizon and is under a stable condition in the investment horizon. We also find that peripheral portfolios gain more than central portfolios when the market is stable in the selection horizon and is drawdown in the investment horizon. Empirical tests are carried out based on the optimal portfolio strategy. Among all possible optimal portfolio strategies based on different parameters to select portfolios and different criteria to identify market conditions, 65% of our optimal portfolio strategies outperform the random strategy for the Shanghai A-Share market while the proportion is 70% for the Shenzhen A-Share market. PMID:28129333

Dynamic Portfolio Strategy Using Clustering Approach.

PubMed

Ren, Fei; Lu, Ya-Nan; Li, Sai-Ping; Jiang, Xiong-Fei; Zhong, Li-Xin; Qiu, Tian

2017-01-01

The problem of portfolio optimization is one of the most important issues in asset management. We here propose a new dynamic portfolio strategy based on the time-varying structures of MST networks in Chinese stock markets, where the market condition is further considered when using the optimal portfolios for investment. A portfolio strategy comprises two stages: First, select the portfolios by choosing central and peripheral stocks in the selection horizon using five topological parameters, namely degree, betweenness centrality, distance on degree criterion, distance on correlation criterion and distance on distance criterion. Second, use the portfolios for investment in the investment horizon. The optimal portfolio is chosen by comparing central and peripheral portfolios under different combinations of market conditions in the selection and investment horizons. Market conditions in our paper are identified by the ratios of the number of trading days with rising index to the total number of trading days, or the sum of the amplitudes of the trading days with rising index to the sum of the amplitudes of the total trading days. We find that central portfolios outperform peripheral portfolios when the market is under a drawup condition, or when the market is stable or drawup in the selection horizon and is under a stable condition in the investment horizon. We also find that peripheral portfolios gain more than central portfolios when the market is stable in the selection horizon and is drawdown in the investment horizon. Empirical tests are carried out based on the optimal portfolio strategy. Among all possible optimal portfolio strategies based on different parameters to select portfolios and different criteria to identify market conditions, 65% of our optimal portfolio strategies outperform the random strategy for the Shanghai A-Share market while the proportion is 70% for the Shenzhen A-Share market.

Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0

USGS Publications Warehouse

Taketa, Richard; Hong, Makiko

2010-01-01

Natural hazards pose significant threats to the public safety and economic health of many communities throughout the world. Community leaders and decision-makers continually face the challenges of planning and allocating limited resources to invest in protecting their communities against catastrophic losses from natural-hazard events. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage loss-reduction measures through mitigation often focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. The site-specific method usually provided the most accurate estimates, but was prohibitively expensive, whereas regional risk assessments were often too general to be of practical use. Policy makers lacked a systematic and quantitative method for conducting a regional-scale risk assessment of natural hazards. In response, Bernknopf and others developed the portfolio model, an intermediate-scale approach to assessing natural-hazard risks and mitigation policy alternatives. The basis for the portfolio-model approach was inspired by financial portfolio theory, which prescribes a method of optimizing return on investment while reducing risk by diversifying investments in different security types. In this context, a security type represents a unique combination of features and hazard-risk level, while financial return is defined as the reduction in losses resulting from an investment in mitigation of chosen securities. Features are selected for mitigation and are modeled like investment portfolios. Earth-science and economic data for the features are combined and processed in order to analyze each of the portfolios, which are then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in selected locations. Ultimately, the decision maker seeks to choose a portfolio representing a mitigation policy that maximizes the expected return-on-investment, while minimizing the uncertainty associated with that return-on-investment. The portfolio model, now known as the Land-Use Portfolio Model (LUPM), provided the framework for the development of the Land-Use Portfolio Modeler, Version 1.0 software (LUPM v1.0). The software provides a geographic information system (GIS)-based modeling tool for evaluating alternative risk-reduction mitigation strategies for specific natural-hazard events. The modeler uses information about a specific natural-hazard event and the features exposed to that event within the targeted study region to derive a measure of a given mitigation strategy`s effectiveness. Harnessing the spatial capabilities of a GIS enables the tool to provide a rich, interactive mapping environment in which users can create, analyze, visualize, and compare different

Managing the Public Sector Research and Development Portfolio Selection Process: A Case Study of Quantitative Selection and Optimization

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-01

PUBLIC SECTOR RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT PORTFOLIO SELECTION PROCESS: A CASE STUDY OF QUANTITATIVE SELECTION AND OPTIMIZATION by Jason A. Schwartz...PUBLIC SECTOR RESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT PORTFOLIO SELECTION PROCESS: A CASE STUDY OF QUANTITATIVE SELECTION AND OPTIMIZATION 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6...describing how public sector organizations can implement a research and development (R&D) portfolio optimization strategy to maximize the cost

An efficient heuristic method for dynamic portfolio selection problem under transaction costs and uncertain conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Najafi, Amir Abbas; Pourahmadi, Zahra

2016-04-01

Selecting the optimal combination of assets in a portfolio is one of the most important decisions in investment management. As investment is a long term concept, looking into a portfolio optimization problem just in a single period may cause loss of some opportunities that could be exploited in a long term view. Hence, it is tried to extend the problem from single to multi-period model. We include trading costs and uncertain conditions to this model which made it more realistic and complex. Hence, we propose an efficient heuristic method to tackle this problem. The efficiency of the method is examined and compared with the results of the rolling single-period optimization and the buy and hold method which shows the superiority of the proposed method.

Vast Portfolio Selection with Gross-exposure Constraints*

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Zhang, Jingjin; Yu, Ke

2012-01-01

We introduce the large portfolio selection using gross-exposure constraints. We show that with gross-exposure constraint the empirically selected optimal portfolios based on estimated covariance matrices have similar performance to the theoretical optimal ones and there is no error accumulation effect from estimation of vast covariance matrices. This gives theoretical justification to the empirical results in Jagannathan and Ma (2003). We also show that the no-short-sale portfolio can be improved by allowing some short positions. The applications to portfolio selection, tracking, and improvements are also addressed. The utility of our new approach is illustrated by simulation and empirical studies on the 100 Fama-French industrial portfolios and the 600 stocks randomly selected from Russell 3000. PMID:23293404

Environment and economic risk: An analysis of carbon emission market and portfolio management.

PubMed

Luo, Cuicui; Wu, Desheng

2016-08-01

Climate change has been one of the biggest and most controversial environmental issues of our times. It affects the global economy, environment and human health. Many researchers find that carbon dioxide (CO2) has contributed the most to climate change between 1750 and 2005. In this study, the orthogonal GARCH (OGARCH) model is applied to examine the time-varying correlations in European CO2 allowance, crude oil and stock markets in US, Europe and China during the Protocol's first commitment period. The results show that the correlations between EUA carbon spot price and the equity markets are higher and more volatile in US and Europe than in China. Then the optimal portfolios consisting these five time series are selected by Mean-Variance and Mean-CVAR models. It shows that the optimal portfolio selected by MV-OGARCH model has the best performance. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Portfolio optimization using median-variance approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wan Mohd, Wan Rosanisah; Mohamad, Daud; Mohamed, Zulkifli

2013-04-01

Optimization models have been applied in many decision-making problems particularly in portfolio selection. Since the introduction of Markowitz's theory of portfolio selection, various approaches based on mathematical programming have been introduced such as mean-variance, mean-absolute deviation, mean-variance-skewness and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) mainly to maximize return and minimize risk. However most of the approaches assume that the distribution of data is normal and this is not generally true. As an alternative, in this paper, we employ the median-variance approach to improve the portfolio optimization. This approach has successfully catered both types of normal and non-normal distribution of data. With this actual representation, we analyze and compare the rate of return and risk between the mean-variance and the median-variance based portfolio which consist of 30 stocks from Bursa Malaysia. The results in this study show that the median-variance approach is capable to produce a lower risk for each return earning as compared to the mean-variance approach.

Credibilistic multi-period portfolio optimization based on scenario tree

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohebbi, Negin; Najafi, Amir Abbas

2018-02-01

In this paper, we consider a multi-period fuzzy portfolio optimization model with considering transaction costs and the possibility of risk-free investment. We formulate a bi-objective mean-VaR portfolio selection model based on the integration of fuzzy credibility theory and scenario tree in order to dealing with the markets uncertainty. The scenario tree is also a proper method for modeling multi-period portfolio problems since the length and continuity of their horizon. We take the return and risk as well cardinality, threshold, class, and liquidity constraints into consideration for further compliance of the model with reality. Then, an interactive dynamic programming method, which is based on a two-phase fuzzy interactive approach, is employed to solve the proposed model. In order to verify the proposed model, we present an empirical application in NYSE under different circumstances. The results show that the consideration of data uncertainty and other real-world assumptions lead to more practical and efficient solutions.

Switching portfolios.

PubMed

Singer, Y

1997-08-01

A constant rebalanced portfolio is an asset allocation algorithm which keeps the same distribution of wealth among a set of assets along a period of time. Recently, there has been work on on-line portfolio selection algorithms which are competitive with the best constant rebalanced portfolio determined in hindsight (Cover, 1991; Helmbold et al., 1996; Cover and Ordentlich, 1996). By their nature, these algorithms employ the assumption that high returns can be achieved using a fixed asset allocation strategy. However, stock markets are far from being stationary and in many cases the wealth achieved by a constant rebalanced portfolio is much smaller than the wealth achieved by an ad hoc investment strategy that adapts to changes in the market. In this paper we present an efficient portfolio selection algorithm that is able to track a changing market. We also describe a simple extension of the algorithm for the case of a general transaction cost, including the transactions cost models recently investigated in (Blum and Kalai, 1997). We provide a simple analysis of the competitiveness of the algorithm and check its performance on real stock data from the New York Stock Exchange accumulated during a 22-year period. On this data, our algorithm outperforms all the algorithms referenced above, with and without transaction costs.

Optimal Investment Under Transaction Costs: A Threshold Rebalanced Portfolio Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tunc, Sait; Donmez, Mehmet Ali; Kozat, Suleyman Serdar

2013-06-01

We study optimal investment in a financial market having a finite number of assets from a signal processing perspective. We investigate how an investor should distribute capital over these assets and when he should reallocate the distribution of the funds over these assets to maximize the cumulative wealth over any investment period. In particular, we introduce a portfolio selection algorithm that maximizes the expected cumulative wealth in i.i.d. two-asset discrete-time markets where the market levies proportional transaction costs in buying and selling stocks. We achieve this using "threshold rebalanced portfolios", where trading occurs only if the portfolio breaches certain thresholds. Under the assumption that the relative price sequences have log-normal distribution from the Black-Scholes model, we evaluate the expected wealth under proportional transaction costs and find the threshold rebalanced portfolio that achieves the maximal expected cumulative wealth over any investment period. Our derivations can be readily extended to markets having more than two stocks, where these extensions are pointed out in the paper. As predicted from our derivations, we significantly improve the achieved wealth over portfolio selection algorithms from the literature on historical data sets.

Perceptions of a continuing professional development portfolio model to enhance the scholarship of teaching and learning.

PubMed

Tofade, Toyin; Abate, Marie; Fu, Yunting

2014-04-01

To obtain feedback about the potential usefulness of a continuing professional development (CPD) portfolio for enhancing a faculty or practitioner's scholarship of teaching and learning (SoTL). A CPD portfolio approach to the SoTL was distributed in advance to registrants of the 2011 Annual AACP Teacher's Seminar. In an interactive workshop, faculty facilitators described a model for a CPD process applied to the development of an individual's SoTL. During the workshop, participants were asked to complete the initial sections of the portfolio to develop a personal plan for success in the SoTL. Post workshop, an evaluation form was distributed to the participants to obtain feedback about the CPD approach. Completed evaluation forms were collected, collated, and summarized. A total of 53 (14.1%) workshop participants completed the evaluation form of the 375 attendees. In all, 25 assistant professors, 14 associate professors, 4 full professors, 10 residents/students, 22 clinical, and 2 research faculty submitted evaluations. The proposed uses for the portfolio model selected most often by the responders were for personal development, faculty evaluation, increasing the SoTL, new faculty development, preceptor development, and residency training. A structured CPD portfolio model might be useful for the professional development of the SoTL.

Asset Allocation and Optimal Contract for Delegated Portfolio Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Jingjun; Liang, Jianfeng

This article studies the portfolio selection and the contracting problems between an individual investor and a professional portfolio manager in a discrete-time principal-agent framework. Portfolio selection and optimal contracts are obtained in closed form. The optimal contract was composed with the fixed fee, the cost, and the fraction of excess expected return. The optimal portfolio is similar to the classical two-fund separation theorem.

Sharing the cost of river basin adaptation portfolios to climate change: Insights from social justice and cooperative game theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girard, Corentin; Rinaudo, Jean-Daniel; Pulido-Velazquez, Manuel

2016-10-01

The adaptation of water resource systems to the potential impacts of climate change requires mixed portfolios of supply and demand adaptation measures. The issue is not only to select efficient, robust, and flexible adaptation portfolios but also to find equitable strategies of cost allocation among the stakeholders. Our work addresses such cost allocation problems by applying two different theoretical approaches: social justice and cooperative game theory in a real case study. First of all, a cost-effective portfolio of adaptation measures at the basin scale is selected using a least-cost optimization model. Cost allocation solutions are then defined based on economic rationality concepts from cooperative game theory (the Core). Second, interviews are conducted to characterize stakeholders' perceptions of social justice principles associated with the definition of alternatives cost allocation rules. The comparison of the cost allocation scenarios leads to contrasted insights in order to inform the decision-making process at the river basin scale and potentially reap the efficiency gains from cooperation in the design of river basin adaptation portfolios.

Optimization of investment portfolio weight of stocks affected by market index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azizah, E.; Rusyaman, E.; Supian, S.

2017-01-01

Stock price assessment, selection of optimum combination, and measure the risk of a portfolio investment is one important issue for investors. In this paper single index model used for the assessment of the stock price, and formulation optimization model developed using Lagrange multiplier technique to determine the proportion of assets to be invested. The level of risk is estimated by using variance. These models are used to analyse the stock price data Lippo Bank and Bumi Putera.

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics

PubMed Central

Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel’s Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species’ available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to ‘errors’ (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario. PMID:29621330

Conservation planning under uncertainty in urban development and vegetation dynamics.

PubMed

Troupin, David; Carmel, Yohay

2018-01-01

Systematic conservation planning is a framework for optimally locating and prioritizing areas for conservation. An often-noted shortcoming of most conservation planning studies is that they do not address future uncertainty. The selection of protected areas that are intended to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity is often based on a snapshot of the current situation, ignoring processes such as climate change. Scenarios, in the sense of being accounts of plausible futures, can be utilized to identify conservation area portfolios that are robust to future uncertainty. We compared three approaches for utilizing scenarios in conservation area selection: considering a full set of scenarios (all-scenarios portfolio), assuming the realization of specific scenarios, and a reference strategy based on the current situation (current distributions portfolio). Our objective was to compare the robustness of these approaches in terms of their relative performance across future scenarios. We focused on breeding bird species in Israel's Mediterranean region. We simulated urban development and vegetation dynamics scenarios 60 years into the future using DINAMICA-EGO, a cellular-automata simulation model. For each scenario, we mapped the target species' available habitat distribution, identified conservation priority areas using the site-selection software MARXAN, and constructed conservation area portfolios using the three aforementioned strategies. We then assessed portfolio performance based on the number of species for which representation targets were met in each scenario. The all-scenarios portfolio consistently outperformed the other portfolios, and was more robust to 'errors' (e.g., when an assumed specific scenario did not occur). On average, the all-scenarios portfolio achieved representation targets for five additional species compared with the current distributions portfolio (approximately 33 versus 28 species). Our findings highlight the importance of considering a broad and meaningful set of scenarios, rather than relying on the current situation, the expected occurrence of specific scenarios, or the worst-case scenario.

Modelling on optimal portfolio with exchange rate based on discontinuous stochastic process

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Wei; Chang, Yuwen

2016-12-01

Considering the stochastic exchange rate, this paper is concerned with the dynamic portfolio selection in financial market. The optimal investment problem is formulated as a continuous-time mathematical model under mean-variance criterion. These processes follow jump-diffusion processes (Weiner process and Poisson process). Then the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman(HJB) equation of the problem is presented and its efferent frontier is obtained. Moreover, the optimal strategy is also derived under safety-first criterion.

Optimization Of Mean-Semivariance-Skewness Portfolio Selection Model In Fuzzy Random Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, Amitava; Bhattacharyya, Rupak; Mukherjee, Supratim; Kar, Samarjit

2010-10-01

The purpose of the paper is to construct a mean-semivariance-skewness portfolio selection model in fuzzy random environment. The objective is to maximize the skewness with predefined maximum risk tolerance and minimum expected return. Here the security returns in the objectives and constraints are assumed to be fuzzy random variables in nature and then the vagueness of the fuzzy random variables in the objectives and constraints are transformed into fuzzy variables which are similar to trapezoidal numbers. The newly formed fuzzy model is then converted into a deterministic optimization model. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by numerical example extracted from Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The exact parameters of fuzzy membership function and probability density function are obtained through fuzzy random simulating the past dates.

Empirical performance of the multivariate normal universal portfolio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Choon Peng; Pang, Sook Theng

2013-09-01

Universal portfolios generated by the multivariate normal distribution are studied with emphasis on the case where variables are dependent, namely, the covariance matrix is not diagonal. The moving-order multivariate normal universal portfolio requires very long implementation time and large computer memory in its implementation. With the objective of reducing memory and implementation time, the finite-order universal portfolio is introduced. Some stock-price data sets are selected from the local stock exchange and the finite-order universal portfolio is run on the data sets, for small finite order. Empirically, it is shown that the portfolio can outperform the moving-order Dirichlet universal portfolio of Cover and Ordentlich[2] for certain parameters in the selected data sets.

Developing a decision support system for R&D project portfolio selection with interdependencies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashrafi, Maryam; Davoudpour, Hamid; Abbassi, Mohammad

2012-11-01

Although investment in research and technology is a promising tool for technology centered organizations through obtaining their objectives, resource constraints make organizations select between their pool of research and technology projects through means of R&D project portfolio selection techniques mitigating corresponding risks and enhancing the overall value of project portfolio.

Portfolio Purchasing Decision for Mobile Power Equipment of B2C E-Commerce Export Retailer Based on CVaR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yanchun, Wan; Qiucen, Chen

2017-11-01

Purchasing is an important part of export e-commerce of B2C, which plays an important role on risk and cost control in supply management. From the perspective of risk control, the paper construct a CVaR model for portfolio purchase. We select a heavy sales mobile power equipment from a typical B2C e-commerce export retailer as study sample. This study optimizes the purchasing strategy of this type of mobile power equipment. The research has some reference for similar enterprises in purchasing portfolio decision.

Risk modelling in portfolio optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, W. H.; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi

2013-09-01

Risk management is very important in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model has been used in portfolio optimization to minimize the investment risk. The objective of the mean-variance model is to minimize the portfolio risk and achieve the target rate of return. Variance is used as risk measure in the mean-variance model. The purpose of this study is to compare the portfolio composition as well as performance between the optimal portfolio of mean-variance model and equally weighted portfolio. Equally weighted portfolio means the proportions that are invested in each asset are equal. The results show that the portfolio composition of the mean-variance optimal portfolio and equally weighted portfolio are different. Besides that, the mean-variance optimal portfolio gives better performance because it gives higher performance ratio than the equally weighted portfolio.

IT Portfolio Selection and IT Synergy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cho, Woo Je

2010-01-01

This dissertation consists of three chapters. The primary objectives of this dissertation are: (1) to provide a methodological framework of IT (Information Technology) portfolio management, and (2) to identify the effect of IT synergy on IT portfolio selection of a firm. The first chapter presents a methodological framework for IT project…

Big Data Challenges of High-Dimensional Continuous-Time Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection and a Remedy.

PubMed

Chiu, Mei Choi; Pun, Chi Seng; Wong, Hoi Ying

2017-08-01

Investors interested in the global financial market must analyze financial securities internationally. Making an optimal global investment decision involves processing a huge amount of data for a high-dimensional portfolio. This article investigates the big data challenges of two mean-variance optimal portfolios: continuous-time precommitment and constant-rebalancing strategies. We show that both optimized portfolios implemented with the traditional sample estimates converge to the worst performing portfolio when the portfolio size becomes large. The crux of the problem is the estimation error accumulated from the huge dimension of stock data. We then propose a linear programming optimal (LPO) portfolio framework, which applies a constrained ℓ 1 minimization to the theoretical optimal control to mitigate the risk associated with the dimensionality issue. The resulting portfolio becomes a sparse portfolio that selects stocks with a data-driven procedure and hence offers a stable mean-variance portfolio in practice. When the number of observations becomes large, the LPO portfolio converges to the oracle optimal portfolio, which is free of estimation error, even though the number of stocks grows faster than the number of observations. Our numerical and empirical studies demonstrate the superiority of the proposed approach. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Interdicting an Adversary’s Economy Viewed As a Trade Sanction Inoperability Input Output Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-01

set of sectors. The design of an economic sanction, in the context of this thesis, is the selection of the sector or set of sectors to sanction...We propose two optimization models. The first, the Trade Sanction Inoperability Input-output Model (TS-IIM), selects the sector or set of sectors that...Interdependency analysis: Extensions to demand reduction inoperability input-output modeling and portfolio selection . Unpublished doctoral dissertation

Firefly algorithm for cardinality constrained mean-variance portfolio optimization problem with entropy diversity constraint.

PubMed

Bacanin, Nebojsa; Tuba, Milan

2014-01-01

Portfolio optimization (selection) problem is an important and hard optimization problem that, with the addition of necessary realistic constraints, becomes computationally intractable. Nature-inspired metaheuristics are appropriate for solving such problems; however, literature review shows that there are very few applications of nature-inspired metaheuristics to portfolio optimization problem. This is especially true for swarm intelligence algorithms which represent the newer branch of nature-inspired algorithms. No application of any swarm intelligence metaheuristics to cardinality constrained mean-variance (CCMV) portfolio problem with entropy constraint was found in the literature. This paper introduces modified firefly algorithm (FA) for the CCMV portfolio model with entropy constraint. Firefly algorithm is one of the latest, very successful swarm intelligence algorithm; however, it exhibits some deficiencies when applied to constrained problems. To overcome lack of exploration power during early iterations, we modified the algorithm and tested it on standard portfolio benchmark data sets used in the literature. Our proposed modified firefly algorithm proved to be better than other state-of-the-art algorithms, while introduction of entropy diversity constraint further improved results.

Firefly Algorithm for Cardinality Constrained Mean-Variance Portfolio Optimization Problem with Entropy Diversity Constraint

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Portfolio optimization (selection) problem is an important and hard optimization problem that, with the addition of necessary realistic constraints, becomes computationally intractable. Nature-inspired metaheuristics are appropriate for solving such problems; however, literature review shows that there are very few applications of nature-inspired metaheuristics to portfolio optimization problem. This is especially true for swarm intelligence algorithms which represent the newer branch of nature-inspired algorithms. No application of any swarm intelligence metaheuristics to cardinality constrained mean-variance (CCMV) portfolio problem with entropy constraint was found in the literature. This paper introduces modified firefly algorithm (FA) for the CCMV portfolio model with entropy constraint. Firefly algorithm is one of the latest, very successful swarm intelligence algorithm; however, it exhibits some deficiencies when applied to constrained problems. To overcome lack of exploration power during early iterations, we modified the algorithm and tested it on standard portfolio benchmark data sets used in the literature. Our proposed modified firefly algorithm proved to be better than other state-of-the-art algorithms, while introduction of entropy diversity constraint further improved results. PMID:24991645

Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

2012-01-01

The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

Selected Papers from the Spring 1993 Breivogel Conference at the University of Florida on Alternative/Portfolio Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vernetson, Theresa, Ed.

1993-01-01

This edition of the "Research Bulletin" is a compilation of papers presented at the annual William F. Breivogel Conference in 1993. The conference theme was alternative and portfolio assessment. Papers were grouped into assessment in general, portfolio assessment, and alternative assessments and curriculum questions. The selected papers…

Risk-aware multi-armed bandit problem with application to portfolio selection

PubMed Central

Huo, Xiaoguang

2017-01-01

Sequential portfolio selection has attracted increasing interest in the machine learning and quantitative finance communities in recent years. As a mathematical framework for reinforcement learning policies, the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem addresses the primary difficulty in sequential decision-making under uncertainty, namely the exploration versus exploitation dilemma, and therefore provides a natural connection to portfolio selection. In this paper, we incorporate risk awareness into the classic multi-armed bandit setting and introduce an algorithm to construct portfolio. Through filtering assets based on the topological structure of the financial market and combining the optimal multi-armed bandit policy with the minimization of a coherent risk measure, we achieve a balance between risk and return. PMID:29291122

Risk-aware multi-armed bandit problem with application to portfolio selection.

PubMed

Huo, Xiaoguang; Fu, Feng

2017-11-01

Sequential portfolio selection has attracted increasing interest in the machine learning and quantitative finance communities in recent years. As a mathematical framework for reinforcement learning policies, the stochastic multi-armed bandit problem addresses the primary difficulty in sequential decision-making under uncertainty, namely the exploration versus exploitation dilemma, and therefore provides a natural connection to portfolio selection. In this paper, we incorporate risk awareness into the classic multi-armed bandit setting and introduce an algorithm to construct portfolio. Through filtering assets based on the topological structure of the financial market and combining the optimal multi-armed bandit policy with the minimization of a coherent risk measure, we achieve a balance between risk and return.

Flexibility and Project Value: Interactions and Multiple Real Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Čulík, Miroslav

2010-06-01

This paper is focused on a project valuation with embedded portfolio of real options including their interactions. Valuation is based on the criterion of Net Present Value on the simulation basis. Portfolio includes selected types of European-type real options: option to expand, contract, abandon and temporarily shut down and restart a project. Due to the fact, that in reality most of the managerial flexibility takes the form of portfolio of real options, selected types of options are valued not only individually, but also in combination. The paper is structured as follows: first, diffusion models for forecasting of output prices and variable costs are derived. Second, project value is estimated on the assumption, that no real options are present. Next, project value is calculated with the presence of selected European-type options; these options and their impact on project value are valued first in isolation and consequently in different combinations. Moreover, intrinsic value evolution of given real options with respect to the time of exercising is analysed. In the end, results are presented graphically; selected statistics and risk measures (Value at Risk, Expected Shortfall) of the NPV's distributions are calculated and commented.

Solving portfolio selection problems with minimum transaction lots based on conditional-value-at-risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiawan, E. P.; Rosadi, D.

2017-01-01

Portfolio selection problems conventionally means ‘minimizing the risk, given the certain level of returns’ from some financial assets. This problem is frequently solved with quadratic or linear programming methods, depending on the risk measure that used in the objective function. However, the solutions obtained by these method are in real numbers, which may give some problem in real application because each asset usually has its minimum transaction lots. In the classical approach considering minimum transaction lots were developed based on linear Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), variance (like Markowitz’s model), and semi-variance as risk measure. In this paper we investigated the portfolio selection methods with minimum transaction lots with conditional value at risk (CVaR) as risk measure. The mean-CVaR methodology only involves the part of the tail of the distribution that contributed to high losses. This approach looks better when we work with non-symmetric return probability distribution. Solution of this method can be found with Genetic Algorithm (GA) methods. We provide real examples using stocks from Indonesia stocks market.

Operationalizing the Student Electronic Portfolio for Doctoral Nursing Education.

PubMed

Willmarth-Stec, Melissa; Beery, Teresa

2015-01-01

There is an increasing trend toward use of the electronic portfolio (e-portfolio) in Doctor of Nursing Practice programs. E-portfolios can provide documentation of competencies and achievement of program outcomes while showcasing a holistic view of the student achievement. Implementation of the e-portfolio requires careful decision making concerning software selection, set-up, portfolio components, and evaluation. The purpose of this article is to describe the implementation of an e-portfolio in a Doctor of Nursing Practice program and provide lessons learned during the implementation stage.

Development of a web database portfolio system with PACS connectivity for undergraduate health education and continuing professional development.

PubMed

Ng, Curtise K C; White, Peter; McKay, Janice C

2009-04-01

Increasingly, the use of web database portfolio systems is noted in medical and health education, and for continuing professional development (CPD). However, the functions of existing systems are not always aligned with the corresponding pedagogy and hence reflection is often lost. This paper presents the development of a tailored web database portfolio system with Picture Archiving and Communication System (PACS) connectivity, which is based on the portfolio pedagogy. Following a pre-determined portfolio framework, a system model with the components of web, database and mail servers, server side scripts, and a Query/Retrieve (Q/R) broker for conversion between Hypertext Transfer Protocol (HTTP) requests and Q/R service class of Digital Imaging and Communication in Medicine (DICOM) standard, is proposed. The system was piloted with seventy-seven volunteers. A tailored web database portfolio system (http://radep.hti.polyu.edu.hk) was developed. Technological arrangements for reinforcing portfolio pedagogy include popup windows (reminders) with guidelines and probing questions of 'collect', 'select' and 'reflect' on evidence of development/experience, limitation in the number of files (evidence) to be uploaded, the 'Evidence Insertion' functionality to link the individual uploaded artifacts with reflective writing, capability to accommodate diversity of contents and convenient interfaces for reviewing portfolios and communication. Evidence to date suggests the system supports users to build their portfolios with sound hypertext reflection under a facilitator's guidance, and with reviewers to monitor students' progress providing feedback and comments online in a programme-wide situation.

Patent portfolio management: literature review and a proposed model.

PubMed

Conegundes De Jesus, Camila Kiyomi; Salerno, Mario Sergio

2018-05-09

Patents and patent portfolios are gaining attention in the last decades, from the called 'pro-patent era' to the recent billionaire transactions involving patent portfolios. The field is growing in importance, both theoretically and practically and despite having substantial literature on new product development portfolio management, we have not found an article relating this theory to patent portfolios. Areas covered: The paper develops a systematic literature review on patent portfolio management to organize the evolution and tendencies of patent portfolio management, highlighting distinctive features of patent portfolio management. Interview with IP manager of three life sciences companies, including a leading multinational group provided relevant information about patent portfolio management. Expert opinion: Based on the systematic literature review on portfolio management, more specifically, on new product development portfolio theory, and interview the paper proposes the paper proposes a reference model to manage patent portfolios. The model comprises four stages aligned with the three goals of the NPD portfolio management: 1 - Linking strategy of the Company's NPD Portfolio to Patent Portfolio; 2 - Balancing the portfolio in buckets; 3 - Patent Valuation (maximizing valuation); 4 - Regularly reviewing the patent portfolio.

Portfolio optimization with mean-variance model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoe, Lam Weng; Siew, Lam Weng

2016-06-01

Investors wish to achieve the target rate of return at the minimum level of risk in their investment. Portfolio optimization is an investment strategy that can be used to minimize the portfolio risk and can achieve the target rate of return. The mean-variance model has been proposed in portfolio optimization. The mean-variance model is an optimization model that aims to minimize the portfolio risk which is the portfolio variance. The objective of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using the mean-variance model. The data of this study consists of weekly returns of 20 component stocks of FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBMKLCI). The results of this study show that the portfolio composition of the stocks is different. Moreover, investors can get the return at minimum level of risk with the constructed optimal mean-variance portfolio.

Entropy-based financial asset pricing.

PubMed

Ormos, Mihály; Zibriczky, Dávid

2014-01-01

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return-entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy.

Entropy-Based Financial Asset Pricing

PubMed Central

Ormos, Mihály; Zibriczky, Dávid

2014-01-01

We investigate entropy as a financial risk measure. Entropy explains the equity premium of securities and portfolios in a simpler way and, at the same time, with higher explanatory power than the beta parameter of the capital asset pricing model. For asset pricing we define the continuous entropy as an alternative measure of risk. Our results show that entropy decreases in the function of the number of securities involved in a portfolio in a similar way to the standard deviation, and that efficient portfolios are situated on a hyperbola in the expected return – entropy system. For empirical investigation we use daily returns of 150 randomly selected securities for a period of 27 years. Our regression results show that entropy has a higher explanatory power for the expected return than the capital asset pricing model beta. Furthermore we show the time varying behavior of the beta along with entropy. PMID:25545668

Universal portfolios generated by the Bregman divergence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Choon Peng; Kuang, Kee Seng

2017-04-01

The Bregman divergence of two probability vectors is a stronger form of the f-divergence introduced by Csiszar. Two versions of the Bregman universal portfolio are presented by exploiting the mean-value theorem. The explicit form of the Bregman universal portfolio generated by a function of a convex polynomial is derived and studied empirically. This portfolio can be regarded as another generalized of the well-known Helmbold portfolio. By running the portfolios on selected stock-price data sets from the local stock exchange, it is shown that it is possible to increase the wealth of the investor by using the portfolios in investment.

Mean-variance portfolio selection for defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary.

PubMed

Zhang, Chubing

2014-01-01

This paper focuses on a continuous-time dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem of defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary, whose risk comes from both financial market and nonfinancial market. By constructing a special Riccati equation as a continuous (actually a viscosity) solution to the HJB equation, we obtain an explicit closed form solution for the optimal investment portfolio as well as the efficient frontier.

The Effect of Mobile Portfolio (M-Portfolio) Supported Mastery Learning Model on Students' Achievement and Their Attitudes towards Using Internet

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ozdemir, Oguzhan; Erdemci, Husamettin

2017-01-01

The term mobile portfolio refers to creating, evaluating and sharing portfolios in mobile environments. Many of the states that pose an obstacle for portfolio usage are now extinguished through mobile portfolios. The aim in this research is to determine the effect of mobile portfolio supported mastery learning model on students' success and…

E-Portfolios for Reflective Practice, Advocacy, and Professional Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keller, Cynthia

2013-01-01

An e-portfolio is an organized collection of professional work (artifacts), selected and reflected upon by the author, that represents a person's best efforts. Over time, an e-portfolio will reflect professional changes and growth. This article discusses some of the reasons for a school librarian to create an e-portfolio. Before creating an…

Development of an Electronic Portfolio System Success Model: An Information Systems Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Balaban, Igor; Mu, Enrique; Divjak, Blazenka

2013-01-01

This research has two main goals: to develop an instrument for assessing Electronic Portfolio (ePortfolio) success and to build a corresponding ePortfolio success model using DeLone and McLean's information systems success model as the theoretical framework. For this purpose, we developed an ePortfolio success measurement instrument and structural…

Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection for Defined-Contribution Pension Funds with Stochastic Salary

PubMed Central

Zhang, Chubing

2014-01-01

This paper focuses on a continuous-time dynamic mean-variance portfolio selection problem of defined-contribution pension funds with stochastic salary, whose risk comes from both financial market and nonfinancial market. By constructing a special Riccati equation as a continuous (actually a viscosity) solution to the HJB equation, we obtain an explicit closed form solution for the optimal investment portfolio as well as the efficient frontier. PMID:24782667

A new enhanced index tracking model in portfolio optimization with sum weighted approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Hoe, Lam Weng

2017-04-01

Index tracking is a portfolio management which aims to construct the optimal portfolio to achieve similar return with the benchmark index return at minimum tracking error without purchasing all the stocks that make up the index. Enhanced index tracking is an improved portfolio management which aims to generate higher portfolio return than the benchmark index return besides minimizing the tracking error. The objective of this paper is to propose a new enhanced index tracking model with sum weighted approach to improve the existing index tracking model for tracking the benchmark Technology Index in Malaysia. The optimal portfolio composition and performance of both models are determined and compared in terms of portfolio mean return, tracking error and information ratio. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio of the proposed model is able to generate higher mean return than the benchmark index at minimum tracking error. Besides that, the proposed model is able to outperform the existing model in tracking the benchmark index. The significance of this study is to propose a new enhanced index tracking model with sum weighted apporach which contributes 67% improvement on the portfolio mean return as compared to the existing model.

Effectiveness of bank credit activity evaluation with application of economic and mathematic modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galeeva, G. M.; Zagladina, E. N.; Kadeeva, E. N.

2018-05-01

The paper presents data on the influence of the most significant factors having impact on the credit portfolio volume, as well as conducts correlation and regression analysis with the subsequent construction of the trend for a short period. Credit activity is understood as the bank activity in the formation of a credit portfolio. Considering the structure of the bank credit portfolio, it can be observed that it consists of credits granted by the bank particularly for legal entities, individuals and other banks. Herewith, it is necessary to understand that any decrease in the credit portfolio will adversely affect the financial stability and effectiveness of any commercial bank. Moreover, during crisis periods, the policy and practice of banks have been determined as quite aggressive and conducted as such with regard to interest rates. The dynamics of credit portfolio volume has been selected as an independent factor due to the reason that it can fully explain the current development situation and the effectiveness of the bank credit policy. Considering the dependent factors, their influence will be assessed by the credit portfolio volume indicator. The authors have distinguished the following ones among them: the volume of credits granted to individuals; the volume of credits granted to legal entities; the amount of overdue credits in the credit portfolio; bank investments in the securities; inflation; key rate.

Portfolio optimization by using linear programing models based on genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukono; Hidayat, Y.; Lesmana, E.; Putra, A. S.; Napitupulu, H.; Supian, S.

2018-01-01

In this paper, we discussed the investment portfolio optimization using linear programming model based on genetic algorithms. It is assumed that the portfolio risk is measured by absolute standard deviation, and each investor has a risk tolerance on the investment portfolio. To complete the investment portfolio optimization problem, the issue is arranged into a linear programming model. Furthermore, determination of the optimum solution for linear programming is done by using a genetic algorithm. As a numerical illustration, we analyze some of the stocks traded on the capital market in Indonesia. Based on the analysis, it is shown that the portfolio optimization performed by genetic algorithm approach produces more optimal efficient portfolio, compared to the portfolio optimization performed by a linear programming algorithm approach. Therefore, genetic algorithms can be considered as an alternative on determining the investment portfolio optimization, particularly using linear programming models.

Application’s Method of Quadratic Programming for Optimization of Portfolio Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kawamoto, Shigeru; Takamoto, Masanori; Kobayashi, Yasuhiro

Investors or fund-managers face with optimization of portfolio selection, which means that determine the kind and the quantity of investment among several brands. We have developed a method to obtain optimal stock’s portfolio more rapidly from twice to three times than conventional method with efficient universal optimization. The method is characterized by quadratic matrix of utility function and constrained matrices divided into several sub-matrices by focusing on structure of these matrices.

Performance of finite order distribution-generated universal portfolios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pang, Sook Theng; Liew, How Hui; Chang, Yun Fah

2017-04-01

A Constant Rebalanced Portfolio (CRP) is an investment strategy which reinvests by redistributing wealth equally among a set of stocks. The empirical performance of the distribution-generated universal portfolio strategies are analysed experimentally concerning 10 higher volume stocks from different categories in Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. The time interval of study is from January 2000 to December 2015, which includes the credit crisis from September 2008 to March 2009. The performance of the finite-order universal portfolio strategies has been shown to be better than Constant Rebalanced Portfolio with some selected parameters of proposed universal portfolios.

Joint Planning and Development Office Work Plan FY10

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

IPSA ) Division will make refinements to the NextGen Portfolio Analysis. In addition, IPSA will work with the Department of Defense (DoD) to define and...Submitted Interagency Portfolio and Systems Analysis ( IPSA ) DRAFT DoD Portfolio Analysis Criteria BASELINE DoD Portfolio Analysis Criteria DRAFT...WG Work Plan Review Prototype Capability Selected and Defined CHAs Complete Safety Metrics for IPSA Complete FINAL Prototype Report FINAL

Can One Portfolio Measure the Six ACGME General Competencies?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jarvis, Robert M.; O'Sullivan, Patricia S.; McClain, Tina; Clardy, James A.

2004-01-01

Objective: To determine that portfolios, useable by any program, can provide needed evidence of resident performance within the ACGME general competencies. Methods: Eighteen residents constructed portfolios with selected entries from thirteen psychiatric skills. Two raters assessed whether entries reflected resident performance within the general…

Reflection during Portfolio-Based Conversations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oosterbaan, Anne E.; van der Schaaf, Marieke F.; Baartman, Liesbeth K. J.; Stokking, Karel M.

2010-01-01

This study aims to explore the relationship between the occurrence of reflection (and non-reflection) and thinking activities (e.g., orientating, selecting, analysing) during portfolio-based conversations. Analysis of 21 transcripts of portfolio-based conversations revealed that 20% of the segments were made up of reflection (content reflection…

Evaluation of portfolio credit risk based on survival analysis for progressive censored data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jaber, Jamil J.; Ismail, Noriszura; Ramli, Siti Norafidah Mohd

2017-04-01

In credit risk management, the Basel committee provides a choice of three approaches to the financial institutions for calculating the required capital: the standardized approach, the Internal Ratings-Based (IRB) approach, and the Advanced IRB approach. The IRB approach is usually preferred compared to the standard approach due to its higher accuracy and lower capital charges. This paper use several parametric models (Exponential, log-normal, Gamma, Weibull, Log-logistic, Gompertz) to evaluate the credit risk of the corporate portfolio in the Jordanian banks based on the monthly sample collected from January 2010 to December 2015. The best model is selected using several goodness-of-fit criteria (MSE, AIC, BIC). The results indicate that the Gompertz distribution is the best model parametric model for the data.

Sparse and stable Markowitz portfolios.

PubMed

Brodie, Joshua; Daubechies, Ingrid; De Mol, Christine; Giannone, Domenico; Loris, Ignace

2009-07-28

We consider the problem of portfolio selection within the classical Markowitz mean-variance framework, reformulated as a constrained least-squares regression problem. We propose to add to the objective function a penalty proportional to the sum of the absolute values of the portfolio weights. This penalty regularizes (stabilizes) the optimization problem, encourages sparse portfolios (i.e., portfolios with only few active positions), and allows accounting for transaction costs. Our approach recovers as special cases the no-short-positions portfolios, but does allow for short positions in limited number. We implement this methodology on two benchmark data sets constructed by Fama and French. Using only a modest amount of training data, we construct portfolios whose out-of-sample performance, as measured by Sharpe ratio, is consistently and significantly better than that of the naïve evenly weighted portfolio.

The returns and risks of investment portfolio in a financial market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Mei, Dong-Cheng

2014-07-01

The returns and risks of investment portfolio in a financial system was investigated by constructing a theoretical model based on the Heston model. After the theoretical model and analysis of portfolio were calculated and analyzed, we find the following: (i) The statistical properties (i.e., the probability distribution, the variance and loss rate of equity portfolio return) between simulation results of the theoretical model and the real financial data obtained from Dow Jones Industrial Average are in good agreement; (ii) The maximum dispersion of the investment portfolio is associated with the maximum stability of the equity portfolio return and minimal investment risks; (iii) An increase of the investment period and a worst investment period are associated with a decrease of stability of the equity portfolio return and a maximum investment risk, respectively.

Using an Online Portfolio Course in Assessing Students' Work

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yilmaz, Harun; Cetinkaya, Bulent

2007-01-01

New developments and advancements in informational technology bring about several alternative avenues for educators to select in supporting and evaluating their students' learning. Online portfolio is a fairly new technique in this regard. As the online education grows, use of online portfolio becomes more vital for educational programs. At…

Experimental Studies on Electronic Portfolios in Turkey: A Literature Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Alan, Selahattin; Sünbül, Ali Murat

2015-01-01

In this study, a literature review was conducted about an individual's selected efforts, products stored in electronic format, and electronic portfolios that reflect the development and capacity of multimedia systems. In this context, relevant experimental studies performed in Turkey are collected to show e-portfolio application forms, their…

Asset Attribution Stability and Portfolio Construction: An Educational Example

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chong, James T.; Jennings, William P.; Phillips, G. Michael

2014-01-01

This paper illustrates how a third statistic from asset pricing models, the R-squared statistic, may have information that can help in portfolio construction. Using a traditional CAPM model in comparison to an 18-factor Arbitrage Pricing Style Model, a portfolio separation test is conducted. Portfolio returns and risk metrics are compared using…

Vast Volatility Matrix Estimation using High Frequency Data for Portfolio Selection*

PubMed Central

Fan, Jianqing; Li, Yingying; Yu, Ke

2012-01-01

Portfolio allocation with gross-exposure constraint is an effective method to increase the efficiency and stability of portfolios selection among a vast pool of assets, as demonstrated in Fan et al. (2011). The required high-dimensional volatility matrix can be estimated by using high frequency financial data. This enables us to better adapt to the local volatilities and local correlations among vast number of assets and to increase significantly the sample size for estimating the volatility matrix. This paper studies the volatility matrix estimation using high-dimensional high-frequency data from the perspective of portfolio selection. Specifically, we propose the use of “pairwise-refresh time” and “all-refresh time” methods based on the concept of “refresh time” proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen et al. (2008) for estimation of vast covariance matrix and compare their merits in the portfolio selection. We establish the concentration inequalities of the estimates, which guarantee desirable properties of the estimated volatility matrix in vast asset allocation with gross exposure constraints. Extensive numerical studies are made via carefully designed simulations. Comparing with the methods based on low frequency daily data, our methods can capture the most recent trend of the time varying volatility and correlation, hence provide more accurate guidance for the portfolio allocation in the next time period. The advantage of using high-frequency data is significant in our simulation and empirical studies, which consist of 50 simulated assets and 30 constituent stocks of Dow Jones Industrial Average index. PMID:23264708

Sparse and stable Markowitz portfolios

PubMed Central

Brodie, Joshua; Daubechies, Ingrid; De Mol, Christine; Giannone, Domenico; Loris, Ignace

2009-01-01

We consider the problem of portfolio selection within the classical Markowitz mean-variance framework, reformulated as a constrained least-squares regression problem. We propose to add to the objective function a penalty proportional to the sum of the absolute values of the portfolio weights. This penalty regularizes (stabilizes) the optimization problem, encourages sparse portfolios (i.e., portfolios with only few active positions), and allows accounting for transaction costs. Our approach recovers as special cases the no-short-positions portfolios, but does allow for short positions in limited number. We implement this methodology on two benchmark data sets constructed by Fama and French. Using only a modest amount of training data, we construct portfolios whose out-of-sample performance, as measured by Sharpe ratio, is consistently and significantly better than that of the naïve evenly weighted portfolio. PMID:19617537

Portfolio optimization with skewness and kurtosis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, Weng Hoe; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah Hj.; Isa, Zaidi

2013-04-01

Mean and variance of return distributions are two important parameters of the mean-variance model in portfolio optimization. However, the mean-variance model will become inadequate if the returns of assets are not normally distributed. Therefore, higher moments such as skewness and kurtosis cannot be ignored. Risk averse investors prefer portfolios with high skewness and low kurtosis so that the probability of getting negative rates of return will be reduced. The objective of this study is to compare the portfolio compositions as well as performances between the mean-variance model and mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model by using the polynomial goal programming approach. The results show that the incorporation of skewness and kurtosis will change the optimal portfolio compositions. The mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model outperforms the mean-variance model because the mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model takes skewness and kurtosis into consideration. Therefore, the mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis model is more appropriate for the investors of Malaysia in portfolio optimization.

Robust portfolio selection based on asymmetric measures of variability of stock returns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wei; Tan, Shaohua

2009-10-01

This paper addresses a new uncertainty set--interval random uncertainty set for robust optimization. The form of interval random uncertainty set makes it suitable for capturing the downside and upside deviations of real-world data. These deviation measures capture distributional asymmetry and lead to better optimization results. We also apply our interval random chance-constrained programming to robust mean-variance portfolio selection under interval random uncertainty sets in the elements of mean vector and covariance matrix. Numerical experiments with real market data indicate that our approach results in better portfolio performance.

The Effects of Portfolio Assessment on Writing of EFL Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nezakatgoo, Behzad

2011-01-01

The primary focus of this study was to determine the effect of portfolio assessment on final examination scores of EFL students' writing skill. To determine the impact of portfolio-based writing assessment 40 university students who enrolled in composition course were initially selected and divided randomly into two experimental and control…

Professional Development Portfolio: Perceptions of Nutrition and Dietetics Current Students and Recent Graduates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vouchilas, Gus; George, Gretchen

2016-01-01

The Professional Development Portfolio (PDP) in family and consumer sciences nutrition and dietetics programs is a tool that can help students in their transition to professionals. Significant issues in the portfolio development process are: content selection, decision to create paper or online formatting, determination of proper timing to begin…

Multi-period project portfolio selection under risk considerations and stochastic income

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tofighian, Ali Asghar; Moezzi, Hamid; Khakzar Barfuei, Morteza; Shafiee, Mahmood

2018-02-01

This paper deals with multi-period project portfolio selection problem. In this problem, the available budget is invested on the best portfolio of projects in each period such that the net profit is maximized. We also consider more realistic assumptions to cover wider range of applications than those reported in previous studies. A novel mathematical model is presented to solve the problem, considering risks, stochastic incomes, and possibility of investing extra budget in each time period. Due to the complexity of the problem, an effective meta-heuristic method hybridized with a local search procedure is presented to solve the problem. The algorithm is based on genetic algorithm (GA), which is a prominent method to solve this type of problems. The GA is enhanced by a new solution representation and well selected operators. It also is hybridized with a local search mechanism to gain better solution in shorter time. The performance of the proposed algorithm is then compared with well-known algorithms, like basic genetic algorithm (GA), particle swarm optimization (PSO), and electromagnetism-like algorithm (EM-like) by means of some prominent indicators. The computation results show the superiority of the proposed algorithm in terms of accuracy, robustness and computation time. At last, the proposed algorithm is wisely combined with PSO to improve the computing time considerably.

A class of stochastic optimization problems with one quadratic & several linear objective functions and extended portfolio selection model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Jiuping; Li, Jun

2002-09-01

In this paper a class of stochastic multiple-objective programming problems with one quadratic, several linear objective functions and linear constraints has been introduced. The former model is transformed into a deterministic multiple-objective nonlinear programming model by means of the introduction of random variables' expectation. The reference direction approach is used to deal with linear objectives and results in a linear parametric optimization formula with a single linear objective function. This objective function is combined with the quadratic function using the weighted sums. The quadratic problem is transformed into a linear (parametric) complementary problem, the basic formula for the proposed approach. The sufficient and necessary conditions for (properly, weakly) efficient solutions and some construction characteristics of (weakly) efficient solution sets are obtained. An interactive algorithm is proposed based on reference direction and weighted sums. Varying the parameter vector on the right-hand side of the model, the DM can freely search the efficient frontier with the model. An extended portfolio selection model is formed when liquidity is considered as another objective to be optimized besides expectation and risk. The interactive approach is illustrated with a practical example.

Linking Portfolio Development to Clinical Supervision: A Case Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zepeda, Sally J.

2002-01-01

Describes a model for portfolio supervision based on the results of a 2-year study of one elementary school's experience in implementing portfolio supervision. Includes four propositions that guided the development of the model. Describes the skills inherent in portfolio supervision. Provides general guidelines for implementation of the portfolio…

Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model.

PubMed

Tang, Jiechen; Zhou, Chao; Yuan, Xinyu; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

2015-01-01

This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT) is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels.

Estimating Risk of Natural Gas Portfolios by Using GARCH-EVT-Copula Model

PubMed Central

Tang, Jiechen; Zhou, Chao; Yuan, Xinyu; Sriboonchitta, Songsak

2015-01-01

This paper concentrates on estimating the risk of Title Transfer Facility (TTF) Hub natural gas portfolios by using the GARCH-EVT-copula model. We first use the univariate ARMA-GARCH model to model each natural gas return series. Second, the extreme value distribution (EVT) is fitted to the tails of the residuals to model marginal residual distributions. Third, multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula are employed to describe the natural gas portfolio risk dependence structure. Finally, we simulate N portfolios and estimate value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR). Our empirical results show that, for an equally weighted portfolio of five natural gases, the VaR and CVaR values obtained from the Student t-copula are larger than those obtained from the Gaussian copula. Moreover, when minimizing the portfolio risk, the optimal natural gas portfolio weights are found to be similar across the multivariate Gaussian copula and Student t-copula and different confidence levels. PMID:26351652

78 FR 65407 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change To List...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-31

... selling investments for the Portfolio. Investments are selected based on fundamental and quantitative... Equity Portfolio. Investments are selected based on fundamental and quantitative analysis. MFS uses... trust and is registered with the Commission as an open-end management investment company.\\5\\ SSgA Funds...

e-Portfolios Enhancing Students' Self-Directed Learning: A Systematic Review of Influencing Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beckers, Jorrick; Dolmans, Diana; Van Merriënboer, Jeroen

2016-01-01

e-Portfolios have become increasingly popular among educators as learning tools. Some research even shows that e-portfolios can be utilised to facilitate the development of skills for self-directed learning. Such skills include self-assessment of performance, formulation of learning goals, and selection of future tasks. However, it is not yet…

Shaping the Portfolio Course: The Uses of Direct Assessment and the Portfolio as a Critical Thinking Tool.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gruber, Loren C.

A composition teacher at Northwest Missouri State University completely redesigned the freshman composition course to include writing portfolios while meeting state requirements for direct assessment and allaying departmental fears. A unit on language history and a half-dozen literature selections were dropped in favor of timed, in-class essay…

Strategic Technology Investment Analysis: An Integrated System Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adumitroaie, V.; Weisbin, C. R.

2010-01-01

Complex technology investment decisions within NASA are increasingly difficult to make such that the end results are satisfying the technical objectives and all the organizational constraints. Due to a restricted science budget environment and numerous required technology developments, the investment decisions need to take into account not only the functional impact on the program goals, but also development uncertainties and cost variations along with maintaining a healthy workforce. This paper describes an approach for optimizing and qualifying technology investment portfolios from the perspective of an integrated system model. The methodology encompasses multi-attribute decision theory elements and sensitivity analysis. The evaluation of the degree of robustness of the recommended portfolio provides the decision-maker with an array of viable selection alternatives, which take into account input uncertainties and possibly satisfy nontechnical constraints. The methodology is presented in the context of assessing capability development portfolios for NASA technology programs.

From aggregation to interpretation: how assessors judge complex data in a competency-based portfolio.

PubMed

Oudkerk Pool, Andrea; Govaerts, Marjan J B; Jaarsma, Debbie A D C; Driessen, Erik W

2018-05-01

While portfolios are increasingly used to assess competence, the validity of such portfolio-based assessments has hitherto remained unconfirmed. The purpose of the present research is therefore to further our understanding of how assessors form judgments when interpreting the complex data included in a competency-based portfolio. Eighteen assessors appraised one of three competency-based mock portfolios while thinking aloud, before taking part in semi-structured interviews. A thematic analysis of the think-aloud protocols and interviews revealed that assessors reached judgments through a 3-phase cyclical cognitive process of acquiring, organizing, and integrating evidence. Upon conclusion of the first cycle, assessors reviewed the remaining portfolio evidence to look for confirming or disconfirming evidence. Assessors were inclined to stick to their initial judgments even when confronted with seemingly disconfirming evidence. Although assessors reached similar final (pass-fail) judgments of students' professional competence, they differed in their information-processing approaches and the reasoning behind their judgments. Differences sprung from assessors' divergent assessment beliefs, performance theories, and inferences about the student. Assessment beliefs refer to assessors' opinions about what kind of evidence gives the most valuable and trustworthy information about the student's competence, whereas assessors' performance theories concern their conceptualizations of what constitutes professional competence and competent performance. Even when using the same pieces of information, assessors furthermore differed with respect to inferences about the student as a person as well as a (future) professional. Our findings support the notion that assessors' reasoning in judgment and decision-making varies and is guided by their mental models of performance assessment, potentially impacting feedback and the credibility of decisions. Our findings also lend further credence to the assertion that portfolios should be judged by multiple assessors who should, moreover, thoroughly substantiate their judgments. Finally, it is suggested that portfolios be designed in such a way that they facilitate the selection of and navigation through the portfolio evidence.

Postoptimality analysis in the selection of technology portfolios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adumitroaie, Virgil; Shelton, Kacie; Elfes, Alberto; Weisbin, Charles R.

2006-01-01

This paper describes an approach for qualifying optimal technology portfolios obtained with a multi-attribute decision support system. The goal is twofold: to gauge the degree of confidence in the optimal solution and to provide the decision-maker with an array of viable selection alternatives, which take into account input uncertainties and possibly satisfy non-technical constraints.

Risk analytics for hedge funds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pareek, Ankur

2005-05-01

The rapid growth of the hedge fund industry presents significant business opportunity for the institutional investors particularly in the form of portfolio diversification. To facilitate this, there is a need to develop a new set of risk analytics for investments consisting of hedge funds, with the ultimate aim to create transparency in risk measurement without compromising the proprietary investment strategies of hedge funds. As well documented in the literature, use of dynamic options like strategies by most of the hedge funds make their returns highly non-normal with fat tails and high kurtosis, thus rendering Value at Risk (VaR) and other mean-variance analysis methods unsuitable for hedge fund risk quantification. This paper looks at some unique concerns for hedge fund risk management and will particularly concentrate on two approaches from physical world to model the non-linearities and dynamic correlations in hedge fund portfolio returns: Self Organizing Criticality (SOC) and Random Matrix Theory (RMT).Random Matrix Theory analyzes correlation matrix between different hedge fund styles and filters random noise from genuine correlations arising from interactions within the system. As seen in the results of portfolio risk analysis, it leads to a better portfolio risk forecastability and thus to optimum allocation of resources to different hedge fund styles. The results also prove the efficacy of self-organized criticality and implied portfolio correlation as a tool for risk management and style selection for portfolios of hedge funds, being particularly effective during non-linear market crashes.

A comparison of linear and nonlinear statistical techniques in performance attribution.

PubMed

Chan, N H; Genovese, C R

2001-01-01

Performance attribution is usually conducted under the linear framework of multifactor models. Although commonly used by practitioners in finance, linear multifactor models are known to be less than satisfactory in many situations. After a brief survey of nonlinear methods, nonlinear statistical techniques are applied to performance attribution of a portfolio constructed from a fixed universe of stocks using factors derived from some commonly used cross sectional linear multifactor models. By rebalancing this portfolio monthly, the cumulative returns for procedures based on standard linear multifactor model and three nonlinear techniques-model selection, additive models, and neural networks-are calculated and compared. It is found that the first two nonlinear techniques, especially in combination, outperform the standard linear model. The results in the neural-network case are inconclusive because of the great variety of possible models. Although these methods are more complicated and may require some tuning, toolboxes are developed and suggestions on calibration are proposed. This paper demonstrates the usefulness of modern nonlinear statistical techniques in performance attribution.

Modeling of Mean-VaR portfolio optimization by risk tolerance when the utility function is quadratic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukono, Sidi, Pramono; Bon, Abdul Talib bin; Supian, Sudradjat

2017-03-01

The problems of investing in financial assets are to choose a combination of weighting a portfolio can be maximized return expectations and minimizing the risk. This paper discusses the modeling of Mean-VaR portfolio optimization by risk tolerance, when square-shaped utility functions. It is assumed that the asset return has a certain distribution, and the risk of the portfolio is measured using the Value-at-Risk (VaR). So, the process of optimization of the portfolio is done based on the model of Mean-VaR portfolio optimization model for the Mean-VaR done using matrix algebra approach, and the Lagrange multiplier method, as well as Khun-Tucker. The results of the modeling portfolio optimization is in the form of a weighting vector equations depends on the vector mean return vector assets, identities, and matrix covariance between return of assets, as well as a factor in risk tolerance. As an illustration of numeric, analyzed five shares traded on the stock market in Indonesia. Based on analysis of five stocks return data gained the vector of weight composition and graphics of efficient surface of portfolio. Vector composition weighting weights and efficient surface charts can be used as a guide for investors in decisions to invest.

Universal portfolios generated by weakly stationary processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Choon Peng; Pang, Sook Theng

2014-12-01

Recently, a universal portfolio generated by a set of independent Brownian motions where a finite number of past stock prices are weighted by the moments of the multivariate normal distribution is introduced and studied. The multivariate normal moments as polynomials in time consequently lead to a constant rebalanced portfolio depending on the drift coefficients of the Brownian motions. For a weakly stationary process, a different type of universal portfolio is proposed where the weights on the stock prices depend only on the time differences of the stock prices. An empirical study is conducted on the returns achieved by the universal portfolios generated by the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process on selected stock-price data sets. Promising results are demonstrated for increasing the wealth of the investor by using the weakly-stationary-process-generated universal portfolios.

Continuous-time safety-first portfolio selection with jump-diffusion processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yan, Wei

2012-04-01

This article is concerned with continuous-time portfolio selection based on a safety-first criterion under discontinuous price processes (jump-diffusion processes). The solution of the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation of the problem is demonstrated. The analytical solutions are presented when there does not exist any riskless asset. Moreover, the problem is also discussed while there exists one riskless asset.

Learning Portfolio Analysis and Mining for SCORM Compliant Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Su, Jun-Ming; Tseng, Shian-Shyong; Wang, Wei; Weng, Jui-Feng; Yang, Jin Tan David; Tsai, Wen-Nung

2006-01-01

With vigorous development of the Internet, e-learning system has become more and more popular. Sharable Content Object Reference Model (SCORM) 2004 provides the Sequencing and Navigation (SN) Specification to define the course sequencing behavior, control the sequencing, selecting and delivering of course, and organize the content into a…

Correlations and risk contagion between mixed assets and mixed-asset portfolio VaR measurements in a dynamic view: An application based on time varying copula models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Yingying; Gong, Pu; Zhou, Xiang

2016-02-01

In this paper, we apply time varying Gaussian and SJC copula models to study the correlations and risk contagion between mixed assets: financial (stock), real estate and commodity (gold) assets in China firstly. Then we study the dynamic mixed-asset portfolio risk through VaR measurement based on the correlations computed by the time varying copulas. This dynamic VaR-copula measurement analysis has never been used on mixed-asset portfolios. The results show the time varying estimations fit much better than the static models, not only for the correlations and risk contagion based on time varying copulas, but also for the VaR-copula measurement. The time varying VaR-SJC copula models are more accurate than VaR-Gaussian copula models when measuring more risky portfolios with higher confidence levels. The major findings suggest that real estate and gold play a role on portfolio risk diversification and there exist risk contagion and flight to quality between mixed-assets when extreme cases happen, but if we take different mixed-asset portfolio strategies with the varying of time and environment, the portfolio risk will be reduced.

ECLIPPx: an innovative model for reflective portfolios in life-long learning.

PubMed

Cheung, C Ronny

2011-03-01

For healthcare professionals, the educational portfolio is the most widely used component of lifelong learning - a vital aspect of modern medical practice. When used effectively, portfolios provide evidence of continuous learning and promote reflective practice. But traditional portfolio models are in danger of becoming outmoded, in the face of changing expectations of healthcare provider competences today. Portfolios in health care have generally focused on competencies in clinical skills. However, many other domains of professional development, such as professionalism and leadership skills, are increasingly important for doctors and health care professionals, and must be addressed in amassing evidence for training and revalidation. There is a need for modern health care learning portfolios to reflect this sea change. A new model for categorising the health care portfolios of professionals is proposed. The ECLIPPx model is based on personal practice, and divides the evidence of ongoing professional learning into four categories: educational development; clinical practice; leadership, innovation and professionalism; and personal experience. The ECLIPPx model offers a new approach for personal reflection and longitudinal learning, one that gives flexibility to the user whilst simultaneously encompassing the many relatively new areas of competence and expertise that are now required of a modern doctor. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2011.

Potential barriers to the application of multi-factor portfolio analysis in public hospitals: evidence from a pilot study in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Pavlova, Milena; Tsiachristas, Apostolos; Vermaeten, Gerhard; Groot, Wim

2009-01-01

Portfolio analysis is a business management tool that can assist health care managers to develop new organizational strategies. The application of portfolio analysis to US hospital settings has been frequently reported. In Europe however, the application of this technique has received little attention, especially concerning public hospitals. Therefore, this paper examines the peculiarities of portfolio analysis and its applicability to the strategic management of European public hospitals. The analysis is based on a pilot application of a multi-factor portfolio analysis in a Dutch university hospital. The nature of portfolio analysis and the steps in a multi-factor portfolio analysis are reviewed along with the characteristics of the research setting. Based on these data, a multi-factor portfolio model is developed and operationalized. The portfolio model is applied in a pilot investigation to analyze the market attractiveness and hospital strengths with regard to the provision of three orthopedic services: knee surgery, hip surgery, and arthroscopy. The pilot portfolio analysis is discussed to draw conclusions about potential barriers to the overall adoption of portfolio analysis in the management of a public hospital. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A diversified portfolio model of adaptability.

PubMed

Chandra, Siddharth; Leong, Frederick T L

2016-12-01

A new model of adaptability, the diversified portfolio model (DPM) of adaptability, is introduced. In the 1950s, Markowitz developed the financial portfolio model by demonstrating that investors could optimize the ratio of risk and return on their portfolios through risk diversification. The DPM integrates attractive features of a variety of models of adaptability, including Linville's self-complexity model, the risk and resilience model, and Bandura's social cognitive theory. The DPM draws on the concept of portfolio diversification, positing that diversified investment in multiple life experiences, life roles, and relationships promotes positive adaptation to life's challenges. The DPM provides a new integrative model of adaptability across the biopsychosocial levels of functioning. More importantly, the DPM addresses a gap in the literature by illuminating the antecedents of adaptive processes studied in a broad array of psychological models. The DPM is described in relation to the biopsychosocial model and propositions are offered regarding its utility in increasing adaptiveness. Recommendations for future research are also offered. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Optimal Portfolio Selection Under Concave Price Impact

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ma Jin, E-mail: jinma@usc.edu; Song Qingshuo, E-mail: songe.qingshuo@cityu.edu.hk; Xu Jing, E-mail: xujing8023@yahoo.com.cn

2013-06-15

In this paper we study an optimal portfolio selection problem under instantaneous price impact. Based on some empirical analysis in the literature, we model such impact as a concave function of the trading size when the trading size is small. The price impact can be thought of as either a liquidity cost or a transaction cost, but the concavity nature of the cost leads to some fundamental difference from those in the existing literature. We show that the problem can be reduced to an impulse control problem, but without fixed cost, and that the value function is a viscosity solutionmore » to a special type of Quasi-Variational Inequality (QVI). We also prove directly (without using the solution to the QVI) that the optimal strategy exists and more importantly, despite the absence of a fixed cost, it is still in a 'piecewise constant' form, reflecting a more practical perspective.« less

Long-range Ising model for credit portfolios with heterogeneous credit exposures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, Kensuke

2016-11-01

We propose the finite-size long-range Ising model as a model for heterogeneous credit portfolios held by a financial institution in the view of econophysics. The model expresses the heterogeneity of the default probability and the default correlation by dividing a credit portfolio into multiple sectors characterized by credit rating and industry. The model also expresses the heterogeneity of the credit exposure, which is difficult to evaluate analytically, by applying the replica exchange Monte Carlo method to numerically calculate the loss distribution. To analyze the characteristics of the loss distribution for credit portfolios with heterogeneous credit exposures, we apply this model to various credit portfolios and evaluate credit risk. As a result, we show that the tail of the loss distribution calculated by this model has characteristics that are different from the tail of the loss distribution of the standard models used in credit risk modeling. We also show that there is a possibility of different evaluations of credit risk according to the pattern of heterogeneity.

Managing the vitamin A program portfolio: a case study of Zambia, 2013-2042.

PubMed

Fiedler, John L; Lividini, Keith

2014-03-01

Micronutrient deficiencies continue to constitute a major burden of disease, particularly in Africa and South Asia. Programs to address micronutrient deficiencies have been increasing in number, type, and scale in recent years, creating an ever-growing need to understand their combined coverage levels, costs, and impacts so as to more effectively combat deficiencies, avoid putting individuals at risk for excess intakes, and ensure the efficient use of public health resources. To analyze combinations of the two current programs--sugar fortification and Child Health Week (CHW)--together with four prospective programs--vegetable oil fortification, wheat flour fortification, maize meal fortification, and biofortified vitamin A maize--to identify Zambia's optimal vitamin A portfolio. Combining program cost estimates and 30-year Zambian food demand projections, together with the Zambian 2005 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey, the annual costs, coverage, impact, and cost-effectiveness of 62 Zambian portfolios were modeled for the period from 2013 to 2042. Optimal portfolios are identified for each of five alternative criteria: average cost-effectiveness, incremental cost-effectiveness, coverage maximization, health impact maximization, and affordability. The most likely scenario is identified to be one that starts with the current portfolio and takes into account all five criteria. Starting with CHW and sugar fortification, it phases in vitamin A maize, oil, wheat flour, and maize meal (in that order) to eventually include all six individual interventions. Combining cost and Household Consumption and Expenditure Survey (HCES) data provides a powerful evidence-generating tool with which to understand how individual micronutrient programs interact and to quantify the tradeoffs involved in selecting alternative program portfolios.

Portfolio evaluation of health programs: a reply to Sendi et al.

PubMed

Bridges, John F P; Terris, Darcey D

2004-05-01

Sendi et al. (Soc. Sci. Med. 57 (2003) 2207) extend previous research on cost-effectiveness analysis to the evaluation of a portfolio of interventions with risky outcomes using a "second best" approach that can identify improvements in efficiency in the allocation of resources. This method, however, cannot be used to directly identify the optimal solution to the resource allocation problem. Theoretically, a stricter adherence to the foundations of portfolio theory would permit direct optimization in portfolio selection, however, when we include uncertainty in our analysis in addition to the traditional concept of risk (which is often mislabelled uncertainty) complexities are introduced that create significant hurdles in the development of practical applications of portfolio theory for health care policy decision making.

Dynamics of Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.

2009-09-01

Preface; 1. Econophysics: why and what; 2. Neo-classical economic theory; 3. Probability and stochastic processes; 4. Introduction to financial economics; 5. Introduction to portfolio selection theory; 6. Scaling, pair correlations, and conditional densities; 7. Statistical ensembles: deducing dynamics from time series; 8. Martingale option pricing; 9. FX market globalization: evolution of the dollar to worldwide reserve currency; 10. Macroeconomics and econometrics: regression models vs. empirically based modeling; 11. Complexity; Index.

A method for minimum risk portfolio optimization under hybrid uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Egorova, Yu E.; Yazenin, A. V.

2018-03-01

In this paper, we investigate a minimum risk portfolio model under hybrid uncertainty when the profitability of financial assets is described by fuzzy random variables. According to Feng, the variance of a portfolio is defined as a crisp value. To aggregate fuzzy information the weakest (drastic) t-norm is used. We construct an equivalent stochastic problem of the minimum risk portfolio model and specify the stochastic penalty method for solving it.

The Teaching Portfolio: Capturing the Scholarship in Teaching.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edgerton, Russell; And Others

This report argues a case for the use of professional teaching portfolios by educators in higher education, advances a point of view about portfolio issues, and offers examples of portfolio entries. A work-sample-plus-reflection model is presented as a guide for what might be included in a portfolio and why it might be used at a particular campus.…

Portfolio Management Best Practices: Observations from Industry

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-05-15

Andreas and Ortwin Renn , “A New Approach to Risk Evaluation and Management: Risk-Based, Precaution-Based, and Discourse-Based Strategies”, Risk...Research and Development, RAND Corporation (2004). Stummer, Christian , and Kurt Heidenberger, “Interactive R&D Portfolio Selection Considering Multiple

Influence of credit scoring on the dynamics of Markov chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galina, Timofeeva

2015-11-01

Markov processes are widely used to model the dynamics of a credit portfolio and forecast the portfolio risk and profitability. In the Markov chain model the loan portfolio is divided into several groups with different quality, which determined by presence of indebtedness and its terms. It is proposed that dynamics of portfolio shares is described by a multistage controlled system. The article outlines mathematical formalization of controls which reflect the actions of the bank's management in order to improve the loan portfolio quality. The most important control is the organization of approval procedure of loan applications. The credit scoring is studied as a control affecting to the dynamic system. Different formalizations of "good" and "bad" consumers are proposed in connection with the Markov chain model.

Validity of portfolio assessment: which qualities determine ratings?

PubMed

Driessen, Erik W; Overeem, Karlijn; van Tartwijk, Jan; van der Vleuten, Cees P M; Muijtjens, Arno M M

2006-09-01

The portfolio is becoming increasingly accepted as a valuable tool for learning and assessment. The validity of portfolio assessment, however, may suffer from bias due to irrelevant qualities, such as lay-out and writing style. We examined the possible effects of such qualities in a portfolio programme aimed at stimulating Year 1 medical students to reflect on their professional and personal development. In later curricular years, this portfolio is also used to judge clinical competence. We developed an instrument, the Portfolio Analysis Scoring Inventory, to examine the impact of form and content aspects on portfolio assessment. The Inventory consists of 15 items derived from interviews with experienced mentors, the literature, and the criteria for reflective competence used in the regular portfolio assessment procedure. Forty portfolios, selected from 231 portfolios for which ratings from the regular assessment procedure were available, were rated by 2 researchers, independently, using the Inventory. Regression analysis was used to estimate the correlation between the ratings from the regular assessment and those resulting from the Inventory items. Inter-rater agreement ranged from 0.46 to 0.87. The strongest predictor of the variance in the regular ratings was 'quality of reflection' (R 0.80; R2 66%). No further items accounted for a significant proportion of variance. Irrelevant items, such as writing style and lay-out, had negligible effects. The absence of an impact of irrelevant criteria appears to support the validity of the portfolio assessment procedure. Further studies should examine the portfolio's validity for the assessment of clinical competence.

A web-based portfolio model as the students' final assignment: Dealing with the development of higher education trend

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Utanto, Yuli; Widhanarto, Ghanis Putra; Maretta, Yoris Adi

2017-03-01

This study aims to develop a web-based portfolio model. The model developed in this study could reveal the effectiveness of the new model in experiments conducted at research respondents in the department of curriculum and educational technology FIP Unnes. In particular, the further research objectives to be achieved through this development of research, namely: (1) Describing the process of implementing a portfolio in a web-based model; (2) Assessing the effectiveness of web-based portfolio model for the final task, especially in Web-Based Learning courses. This type of research is the development of research Borg and Gall (2008: 589) says "educational research and development (R & D) is a process used to develop and validate educational production". The series of research and development carried out starting with exploration and conceptual studies, followed by testing and evaluation, and also implementation. For the data analysis, the technique used is simple descriptive analysis, analysis of learning completeness, which then followed by prerequisite test for normality and homogeneity to do T - test. Based on the data analysis, it was concluded that: (1) a web-based portfolio model can be applied to learning process in higher education; (2) The effectiveness of web-based portfolio model with field data from the respondents of large group trial participants (field trial), the number of respondents who reached mastery learning (a score of 60 and above) were 24 people (92.3%) in which it indicates that the web-based portfolio model is effective. The conclusion of this study is that a web-based portfolio model is effective. The implications of the research development of this model, the next researcher is expected to be able to use the guideline of the development model based on the research that has already been conducted to be developed on other subjects.

Measuring Treasury Bond Portfolio Risk and Portfolio Optimization with a Non-Gaussian Multivariate Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Yijun

The research about measuring the risk of a bond portfolio and the portfolio optimization was relatively rare previously, because the risk factors of bond portfolios are not very volatile. However, this condition has changed recently. The 2008 financial crisis brought high volatility to the risk factors and the related bond securities, even if the highly rated U.S. treasury bonds. Moreover, the risk factors of bond portfolios show properties of fat-tailness and asymmetry like risk factors of equity portfolios. Therefore, we need to use advanced techniques to measure and manage risk of bond portfolios. In our paper, we first apply autoregressive moving average generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARMA-GARCH) model with multivariate normal tempered stable (MNTS) distribution innovations to predict risk factors of U.S. treasury bonds and statistically demonstrate that MNTS distribution has the ability to capture the properties of risk factors based on the goodness-of-fit tests. Then based on empirical evidence, we find that the VaR and AVaR estimated by assuming normal tempered stable distribution are more realistic and reliable than those estimated by assuming normal distribution, especially for the financial crisis period. Finally, we use the mean-risk portfolio optimization to minimize portfolios' potential risks. The empirical study indicates that the optimized bond portfolios have better risk-adjusted performances than the benchmark portfolios for some periods. Moreover, the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal tempered stable distribution have improved performances in comparison to the optimized bond portfolios obtained by assuming normal distribution.

Extreme Unconditional Dependence Vs. Multivariate GARCH Effect in the Analysis of Dependence Between High Losses on Polish and German Stock Indexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rokita, Pawel

Classical portfolio diversification methods do not take account of any dependence between extreme returns (losses). Many researchers provide, however, some empirical evidence for various assets that extreme-losses co-occur. If the co-occurrence is frequent enough to be statistically significant, it may seriously influence portfolio risk. Such effects may result from a few different properties of financial time series, like for instance: (1) extreme dependence in a (long-term) unconditional distribution, (2) extreme dependence in subsequent conditional distributions, (3) time-varying conditional covariance, (4) time-varying (long-term) unconditional covariance, (5) market contagion. Moreover, a mix of these properties may be present in return time series. Modeling each of them requires different approaches. It seams reasonable to investigate whether distinguishing between the properties is highly significant for portfolio risk measurement. If it is, identifying the effect responsible for high loss co-occurrence would be of a great importance. If it is not, the best solution would be selecting the easiest-to-apply model. This article concentrates on two of the aforementioned properties: extreme dependence (in a long-term unconditional distribution) and time-varying conditional covariance.

Purpose and Pedagogy: A Conceptual Model for an ePortfolio

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buyarski, Catherine A.; Aaron, Robert W.; Hansen, Michele J.; Hollingsworth, Cynthia D.; Johnson, Charles A.; Kahn, Susan; Landis, Cynthia M.; Pedersen, Joan S.; Powell, Amy A.

2015-01-01

This conceptual model emerged from the need to balance multiple purposes and perspectives associated with developing an ePortfolio designed to promote student development and success. A comprehensive review of literature from various disciplines, theoretical frameworks, and scholarship, including self-authorship, reflection, ePortfolio pedagogy,…

Multivariate Markov chain modeling for stock markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maskawa, Jun-ichi

2003-06-01

We study a multivariate Markov chain model as a stochastic model of the price changes of portfolios in the framework of the mean field approximation. The time series of price changes are coded into the sequences of up and down spins according to their signs. We start with the discussion for small portfolios consisting of two stock issues. The generalization of our model to arbitrary size of portfolio is constructed by a recurrence relation. The resultant form of the joint probability of the stationary state coincides with Gibbs measure assigned to each configuration of spin glass model. Through the analysis of actual portfolios, it has been shown that the synchronization of the direction of the price changes is well described by the model.

Contract portfolio optimization for a gasoline supply chain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Shanshan

Major oil companies sell gasoline through three channels of trade: branded (associated with long-term contracts), unbranded (associated with short-term contracts), and spot market. The branded channel provides them with a long-term secured and sustainable demand source, but requires an inflexible long-term commitment with demand and price risks. The unbranded channel provides a medium level of allocation flexibility. The spot market provides them with the greatest allocation flexibility to the changing market conditions, but the spot market's illiquidity mitigates this benefit. In order to sell the product in a profitable and sustainable way, they need an optimal contract portfolio. This dissertation addresses the contract portfolio optimization problem from different perspectives (retrospective view and forward-looking view) at different levels (strategic level, tactical level and operational level). The objective of the retrospective operational model is to develop a financial case to estimate the business value of having a dynamic optimization model and quantify the opportunity values missed in the past. This model proves the financial significance of the problem and provides top management valuable insights into the business. BP has applied the insights and principles gained from this work and implemented the model to the entire Midwest gasoline supply chain to retrospectively review optimization opportunities. The strategic model is the most parsimonious model that captures the essential economic tradeoffs among different contract types, to demonstrate the need for a contract portfolio and what drives the portfolio. We examine the properties of the optimal contract portfolio and provide a comparative statics analysis by changing the model parameters. As the strategic model encapsulates the business problem at the macroscopic level, the tactical model resolves lower level issues. It considers the time dynamics, the information flow and contracting flow. Using this model, we characterize a simple and easily implementable dynamic contract portfolio policy that would enable the company to dynamically rebalance its supply contract portfolio over time in anticipation of the future market conditions in each individual channel while satisfying the contractual obligations. The optimal policy is a state-dependent base-share contract portfolio policy characterized by a branded base-share level and an unbranded contract commitment combination, given as a function of the initial information state. Using real-world market data, we estimate the model parameters. We also apply an efficient modified policy iteration method to compute the optimal contract portfolio strategies and corresponding profit value. We present computational results in order to obtain insights into the structure of optimal policies, capture the value of the dynamic contract portfolio policy by comparing it with static policies, and illustrate the sensitivity of the optimal contract portfolio and corresponding profit value in terms of the different parameters. Considering the geographic dispersion of different market areas and the pipeline network together with the dynamic contract portfolio optimization problem, we formulate a forward-looking operational model, which could be used by gasoline suppliers for lower-level planning. Finally, we discuss the generalization of the framework to other problems and applications, as well as further research.

Managing risk and expected financial return from selective expansion of operating room capacity: mean-variance analysis of a hospital's portfolio of surgeons.

PubMed

Dexter, Franklin; Ledolter, Johannes

2003-07-01

Surgeons using the same amount of operating room (OR) time differ in their achieved hospital contribution margins (revenue minus variable costs) by >1000%. Thus, to improve the financial return from perioperative facilities, OR strategic decisions should selectively focus additional OR capacity and capital purchasing on a few surgeons or subspecialties. These decisions use estimates of each surgeon's and/or subspecialty's contribution margin per OR hour. The estimates are subject to uncertainty (e.g., from outliers). We account for the uncertainties by using mean-variance portfolio analysis (i.e., quadratic programming). This method characterizes the problem of selectively expanding OR capacity based on the expected financial return and risk of different portfolios of surgeons. The assessment reveals whether the choices, of which surgeons have their OR capacity expanded, are sensitive to the uncertainties in the surgeons' contribution margins per OR hour. Thus, mean-variance analysis reduces the chance of making strategic decisions based on spurious information. We also assess the financial benefit of using mean-variance portfolio analysis when the planned expansion of OR capacity is well diversified over at least several surgeons or subspecialties. Our results show that, in such circumstances, there may be little benefit from further changing the portfolio to reduce its financial risk. Surgeon and subspecialty specific hospital financial data are uncertain, a fact that should be taken into account when making decisions about expanding operating room capacity. We show that mean-variance portfolio analysis can incorporate this uncertainty, thereby guiding operating room management decision-making and reducing the chance of a strategic decision being made based on spurious information.

A methodology for the valuation and selection of adaptable technology portfolios and its application to small and medium airports

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinon, Olivia J.

The increase in the types of airspace users (large aircraft, small and regional jets, very light jets, unmanned aerial vehicles, etc.), as well as the very limited number of future new airport development projects are some of the factors that will characterize the next decades in air transportation. These factors, associated with a persistent growth in air traffic will worsen the current gridlock situation experienced at some major airports. As airports are becoming the major capacity bottleneck to continued growth in air traffic, it is therefore primordial to make the most efficient use of the current, and very often, underutilized airport infrastructure. This research thus proposes to address the increase in air traffic demand and resulting capacity issues by considering the implementation of operational concepts and technologies at underutilized airports. However, there are many challenges associated with sustaining the development of this type of airports. First, the need to synchronize evolving technologies with airports’ needs and investment capabilities is paramount. Additionally, it was observed that the evolution of secondary airports, and their needs, is tightly linked to the environment in which they operate. In particular, sensitivity of airports to changes in the dynamics of their environment is important, therefore requiring that the factors that drive the need for technology acquisition be identified and characterized. Finally, the difficulty to evaluate risk and make financially viable decisions, particularly when investing in new technologies, cannot be ignored. This research provides a methodology that addresses these challenges and ensures the sustainability of airport capacity-enhancement investments in a continuously changing environment. In particular, it is articulated around the need to provide decision makers with the capability to valuate and select adaptable technology portfolios to ensure airport financial viability. Hence, the four-step process developed in this research leverages the benefits yielded by impact assessment techniques, system dynamics modeling, and real options analysis to 1) provide the decision maker with a rigorous, structured, and traceable process for technology selection, 2) assess the combined impact of interrelated technologies, 3) support the translation of technology impact factors into airport performance indicators, and help identify the factors that drive the need for capacity expansion, and finally 4) enable the quantitative assessment of the strategic value of embedding flexibility in the formulation of technology portfolios and investment options. In particular, the development of this methodology highlights the successful implementation of relevance tree analysis, morphological analysis, filters and dependency tables to support the aforementioned process for technology selection. Further, it illustrates the limited capability of Cross Impact Analysis to identify technology relationships for the problem at hand. Finally, this methodology demonstrates, through a change in demand at the airport modeled, the importance of being able to weigh both the technological and strategic performance of the technology portfolios considered. In particular, it illustrates the impact that the level of traffic, the presence of congestion, the timing and sequence of investments, and the number of technologies included, have on the strategic value of a portfolio. Hence, by capturing the time dimension and technology causality impacts in technology portfolio selection, this work helps identify key technologies or technology groupings, and assess their performance on airport metrics. By embedding flexibility in the formulation of investment scenarios, it provides the decision maker with a more accurate picture of the options available to him, as well as the time and sequence under which these should be exercised.

The returns and risks of investment portfolio in stock market crashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiang-Cheng; Long, Chao; Chen, Xiao-Dan

2015-06-01

The returns and risks of investment portfolio in stock market crashes are investigated by considering a theoretical model, based on a modified Heston model with a cubic nonlinearity, proposed by Spagnolo and Valenti. Through numerically simulating probability density function of returns and the mean escape time of the model, the results indicate that: (i) the maximum stability of returns is associated with the maximum dispersion of investment portfolio and an optimal stop-loss position; (ii) the maximum risks are related with a worst dispersion of investment portfolio and the risks of investment portfolio are enhanced by increasing stop-loss position. In addition, the good agreements between the theoretical result and real market data are found in the behaviors of the probability density function and the mean escape time.

Robust Active Portfolio Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-11-27

the Markowitz mean-variance model led to development of the Capital Asset Pricing Model ( CAPM ) for asset pricing [35, 29, 23] which remains one of the...active portfolio management. Our model uses historical returns and equilibrium expected returns predicted by the CAPM to identify assets that are...incorrectly priced in the market. There is a fundamental inconsistency between the CAPM and active portfolio management. The CAPM assumes that markets are

Between Public and Private: Politics, Governance, and the New Portfolio Models for Urban School Reform

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bulkley, Katrina E., Ed.; Henig, Jeffrey R., Ed.; Levin, Henry M., Ed.

2010-01-01

"Between Public and Private" examines an innovative approach to school district management that has been adopted by a number of urban districts in recent years: a portfolio management model, in which "a central office oversees a portfolio of schools offering diverse organizational and curricular themes, including traditional public…

The Rise of Student Growth Portfolio Models in Tennessee

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stone, Zachary

2017-01-01

Over the last several years, Tennessee has rapidly expanded the use of student growth portfolio models for the purpose of teacher evaluation. Participation, both in the number of districts and teachers, has increased steadily since portfolios were first introduced during the 2011-12 school year, and we expect that participation will continue to…

Towards resiliency with micro-grids: Portfolio optimization and investment under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gharieh, Kaveh

Energy security and sustained supply of power are critical for community welfare and economic growth. In the face of the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions which can result in power grid outage, the value of micro-grids to improve the communities' power reliability and resiliency is becoming more important. Micro-grids capability to operate in islanded mode in stressed-out conditions, dramatically decreases the economic loss of critical infrastructure in power shortage occasions. More wide-spread participation of micro-grids in the wholesale energy market in near future, makes the development of new investment models necessary. However, market and price risks in short term and long term along with risk factors' impacts shall be taken into consideration in development of new investment models. This work proposes a set of models and tools to address different problems associated with micro-grid assets including optimal portfolio selection, investment and financing in both community and a sample critical infrastructure (i.e. wastewater treatment plant) levels. The models account for short-term operational volatilities and long-term market uncertainties. A number of analytical methodologies and financial concepts have been adopted to develop the aforementioned models as follows. (1) Capital budgeting planning and portfolio optimization models with Monte Carlo stochastic scenario generation are applied to derive the optimal investment decision for a portfolio of micro-grid assets considering risk factors and multiple sources of uncertainties. (2) Real Option theory, Monte Carlo simulation and stochastic optimization techniques are applied to obtain optimal modularized investment decisions for hydrogen tri-generation systems in wastewater treatment facilities, considering multiple sources of uncertainty. (3) Public Private Partnership (PPP) financing concept coupled with investment horizon approach are applied to estimate public and private parties' revenue shares from a community-level micro-grid project over the course of assets' lifetime considering their optimal operation under uncertainty.

Modeling stock prices in a portfolio using multidimensional geometric brownian motion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maruddani, Di Asih I.; Trimono

2018-05-01

Modeling and forecasting stock prices of public corporates are important studies in financial analysis, due to their stock price characteristics. Stocks investments give a wide variety of risks. Taking a portfolio of several stocks is one way to minimize risk. Stochastic process of single stock price movements model can be formulated in Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model. But for a portfolio that consist more than one corporate stock, we need an expansion of GBM Model. In this paper, we use multidimensional Geometric Brownian Motion model. This paper aims to model and forecast two stock prices in a portfolio. These are PT. Matahari Department Store Tbk and PT. Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk on period January 4, 2016 until April 21, 2017. The goodness of stock price forecast value is based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). As the results, we conclude that forecast two stock prices in a portfolio using multidimensional GBM give less MAPE than using GBM for single stock price respectively. We conclude that multidimensional GBM is more appropriate for modeling stock prices, because the price of each stock affects each other.

Inverse Statistics and Asset Allocation Efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bolgorian, Meysam

In this paper using inverse statistics analysis, the effect of investment horizon on the efficiency of portfolio selection is examined. Inverse statistics analysis is a general tool also known as probability distribution of exit time that is used for detecting the distribution of the time in which a stochastic process exits from a zone. This analysis was used in Refs. 1 and 2 for studying the financial returns time series. This distribution provides an optimal investment horizon which determines the most likely horizon for gaining a specific return. Using samples of stocks from Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) as an emerging market and S&P 500 as a developed market, effect of optimal investment horizon in asset allocation is assessed. It is found that taking into account the optimal investment horizon in TSE leads to more efficiency for large size portfolios while for stocks selected from S&P 500, regardless of portfolio size, this strategy does not only not produce more efficient portfolios, but also longer investment horizons provides more efficiency.

A mathematical model for maximizing the value of phase 3 drug development portfolios incorporating budget constraints and risk.

PubMed

Patel, Nitin R; Ankolekar, Suresh; Antonijevic, Zoran; Rajicic, Natasa

2013-05-10

We describe a value-driven approach to optimizing pharmaceutical portfolios. Our approach incorporates inputs from research and development and commercial functions by simultaneously addressing internal and external factors. This approach differentiates itself from current practices in that it recognizes the impact of study design parameters, sample size in particular, on the portfolio value. We develop an integer programming (IP) model as the basis for Bayesian decision analysis to optimize phase 3 development portfolios using expected net present value as the criterion. We show how this framework can be used to determine optimal sample sizes and trial schedules to maximize the value of a portfolio under budget constraints. We then illustrate the remarkable flexibility of the IP model to answer a variety of 'what-if' questions that reflect situations that arise in practice. We extend the IP model to a stochastic IP model to incorporate uncertainty in the availability of drugs from earlier development phases for phase 3 development in the future. We show how to use stochastic IP to re-optimize the portfolio development strategy over time as new information accumulates and budget changes occur. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Portfolio optimization for index tracking modelling in Malaysia stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siew, Lam Weng; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun

2016-06-01

Index tracking is an investment strategy in portfolio management which aims to construct an optimal portfolio to generate similar mean return with the stock market index mean return without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index. The objective of this paper is to construct an optimal portfolio using the optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the benchmark stock market index return. In this study, the data consists of weekly price of stocks in Malaysia market index which is FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index from January 2010 until December 2013. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio is able to track FBMKLCI Index at minimum tracking error of 1.0027% with 0.0290% excess mean return over the mean return of FBMKLCI Index. The significance of this study is to construct the optimal portfolio using optimization model which adopts regression approach in tracking the stock market index without purchasing all index components.

Two Portfolio Systems: EFL Students' Perceptions of Writing Ability, Text Improvement, and Feedback

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lam, Ricky

2013-01-01

Research into portfolio assessment ("PA") typically describes teachers' development and implementation of different portfolio models in their respective teaching contexts, however, not much attention is paid to student perceptions of the portfolio approach or its impact on the learning of writing. To this end, this study aims to…

System Architecture Modeling for Technology Portfolio Management using ATLAS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thompson, Robert W.; O'Neil, Daniel A.

2006-01-01

Strategic planners and technology portfolio managers have traditionally relied on consensus-based tools, such as Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Quality Function Deployment (QFD) in planning the funding of technology development. While useful to a certain extent, these tools are limited in the ability to fully quantify the impact of a technology choice on system mass, system reliability, project schedule, and lifecycle cost. The Advanced Technology Lifecycle Analysis System (ATLAS) aims to provide strategic planners a decision support tool for analyzing technology selections within a Space Exploration Architecture (SEA). Using ATLAS, strategic planners can select physics-based system models from a library, configure the systems with technologies and performance parameters, and plan the deployment of a SEA. Key parameters for current and future technologies have been collected from subject-matter experts and other documented sources in the Technology Tool Box (TTB). ATLAS can be used to compare the technical feasibility and economic viability of a set of technology choices for one SEA, and compare it against another set of technology choices or another SEA. System architecture modeling in ATLAS is a multi-step process. First, the modeler defines the system level requirements. Second, the modeler identifies technologies of interest whose impact on an SEA. Third, the system modeling team creates models of architecture elements (e.g. launch vehicles, in-space transfer vehicles, crew vehicles) if they are not already in the model library. Finally, the architecture modeler develops a script for the ATLAS tool to run, and the results for comparison are generated.

Does asymmetric correlation affect portfolio optimization?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fryd, Lukas

2017-07-01

The classical portfolio optimization problem does not assume asymmetric behavior of relationship among asset returns. The existence of asymmetric response in correlation on the bad news could be important information in portfolio optimization. The paper applies Dynamic conditional correlation model (DCC) and his asymmetric version (ADCC) to propose asymmetric behavior of conditional correlation. We analyse asymmetric correlation among S&P index, bonds index and spot gold price before mortgage crisis in 2008. We evaluate forecast ability of the models during and after mortgage crisis and demonstrate the impact of asymmetric correlation on the reduction of portfolio variance.

Responding to Gangs: Evaluation and Research.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reed, Winifred L., Ed.; Decker, Scott H., Ed.

This collection of papers presents a representative selection of the National Institute of Justice's portfolio of gang-related research. The 10 papers are: (1) "A Decade of Gang Research: Findings of the National Institute of Justice Gang Portfolio" (Scott H. Decker); (2) "The Evolution of Street Gangs: An Examination of Form and…

Portfolio as a Teaching Method: A Capstone Project to Promote Recognition of Professional Growth

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolffe, Robert; Crowe, Helja Antola; Evens, Wayne; McConnaughay, Kelly

2013-01-01

A reflective portfolio as a capstone assignment was selected to accomplish recognition by teachers completing a science, technology, mathematics, engineering master's program for elementary teachers about their professional and personal changes and to provide program evaluators additional qualitative data regarding attainment of program goals. As…

Using the ELP as a Basis for Self- and Peer Assessment When Selecting "Best" Work in Modern-Language Degree Programmes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dalziel, Fiona; Davies, Gillian; Han, Amy

2016-01-01

The European Language Portfolio (ELP) was designed as a tool that "supports reflective learning and fosters the development of learner autonomy" (Little 2009, "The European Language Portfolio: Where pedagogy and assessment meet". Strasbourg: Council of Europe.…

Performance of the reverse Helmbold universal portfolio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Choon Peng; Kuang, Kee Seng; Lee, Yap Jia

2017-04-01

The universal portfolio is an important investment strategy in a stock market where no stochastic model is assumed for the stock prices. The zero-gradient set of the objective function estimating the next-day portfolio which contains the reverse Kullback-Leibler order-alpha divergence is considered. From the zero-gradient set, the explicit, reverse Helmbold universal portfolio is obtained. The performance of the explicit, reverse Helmbold universal portfolio is studied by running them on some stock-price data sets from the local stock exchange. It is possible to increase the wealth of the investor by using these portfolios in investment.

Efficient Location Uncertainty Treatment for Probabilistic Modelling of Portfolio Loss from Earthquake Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheingraber, Christoph; Käser, Martin; Allmann, Alexander

2017-04-01

Probabilistic seismic risk analysis (PSRA) is a well-established method for modelling loss from earthquake events. In the insurance industry, it is widely employed for probabilistic modelling of loss to a distributed portfolio. In this context, precise exposure locations are often unknown, which results in considerable loss uncertainty. The treatment of exposure uncertainty has already been identified as an area where PSRA would benefit from increased research attention. However, so far, epistemic location uncertainty has not been in the focus of a large amount of research. We propose a new framework for efficient treatment of location uncertainty. To demonstrate the usefulness of this novel method, a large number of synthetic portfolios resembling real-world portfolios is systematically analyzed. We investigate the effect of portfolio characteristics such as value distribution, portfolio size, or proportion of risk items with unknown coordinates on loss variability. Several sampling criteria to increase the computational efficiency of the framework are proposed and put into the wider context of well-established Monte-Carlo variance reduction techniques. The performance of each of the proposed criteria is analyzed.

A semiparametric graphical modelling approach for large-scale equity selection.

PubMed

Liu, Han; Mulvey, John; Zhao, Tianqi

2016-01-01

We propose a new stock selection strategy that exploits rebalancing returns and improves portfolio performance. To effectively harvest rebalancing gains, we apply ideas from elliptical-copula graphical modelling and stability inference to select stocks that are as independent as possible. The proposed elliptical-copula graphical model has a latent Gaussian representation; its structure can be effectively inferred using the regularized rank-based estimators. The resulting algorithm is computationally efficient and scales to large data-sets. To show the efficacy of the proposed method, we apply it to conduct equity selection based on a 16-year health care stock data-set and a large 34-year stock data-set. Empirical tests show that the proposed method is superior to alternative strategies including a principal component analysis-based approach and the classical Markowitz strategy based on the traditional buy-and-hold assumption.

Analysis of optoelectronic strategic planning in Taiwan by artificial intelligence portfolio tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Rang-Seng

1992-05-01

Taiwan ROC has achieved significant advances in the optoelectronic industry with some Taiwan products ranked high in the world market and technology. Six segmentations of optoelectronic were planned. Each one was divided into several strategic items, design artificial intelligent portfolio tool (AIPT) to analyze the optoelectronic strategic planning in Taiwan. The portfolio is designed to provoke strategic thinking intelligently. This computer- generated strategy should be selected and modified by the individual. Some strategies for the development of the Taiwan optoelectronic industry also are discussed in this paper.

Portfolio Preparation Tips for Teachers, Part 2

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hunter-Lombardi, Brooke

2009-01-01

In the August/September 2008 issue of "SchoolArts," the author talked about strategies for helping students develop content and good working habits to support making portfolio-quality pieces. In this article, she offers some tips which focus on the importance of critique, presentation, and selection of images to end up with a polished,…

Rank-based methods for modeling dependence between loss triangles.

PubMed

Côté, Marie-Pier; Genest, Christian; Abdallah, Anas

2016-01-01

In order to determine the risk capital for their aggregate portfolio, property and casualty insurance companies must fit a multivariate model to the loss triangle data relating to each of their lines of business. As an inadequate choice of dependence structure may have an undesirable effect on reserve estimation, a two-stage inference strategy is proposed in this paper to assist with model selection and validation. Generalized linear models are first fitted to the margins. Standardized residuals from these models are then linked through a copula selected and validated using rank-based methods. The approach is illustrated with data from six lines of business of a large Canadian insurance company for which two hierarchical dependence models are considered, i.e., a fully nested Archimedean copula structure and a copula-based risk aggregation model.

Acquisition Management for System of Systems: Requirement Evolution and Acquisition Strategy Planning

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-29

of modern portfolio and control theory . The reformulation allows for possible changes in estimated quantities (e.g., due to market shifts in... Portfolio Theory (MPT). Final Report: NPS award N00244-11-1-0003 5 Extending CEM and Markov: Agent-Based Modeling Approach Research conducted in the...integration and acquisition from a robust portfolio theory standpoint. Robust portfolio management methodologies have been widely used by financial

Capability and Development Risk Management in System-of-Systems Architectures: A Portfolio Approach to Decision-Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-04-30

tool that provides a means of balancing capability development against cost and interdependent risks through the use of modern portfolio theory ...Focardi, 2007; Tutuncu & Cornuejols, 2007) that are extensions of modern portfolio and control theory . The reformulation allows for possible changes...Acquisition: Wave Model context • An Investment Portfolio Approach – Mean Variance Approach – Mean - Variance : A Robust Version • Concept

Portfolio careers for medical graduates: implications for postgraduate training and workforce planning.

PubMed

Eyre, Harris A; Mitchell, Rob D; Milford, Will; Vaswani, Nitin; Moylan, Steven

2014-06-01

Portfolio careers in medicine can be defined as significant involvement in one or more portfolios of activity beyond a practitioner's primary clinical role, either concurrently or in sequence. Portfolio occupations may include medical education, research, administration, legal medicine, the arts, engineering, business and consulting, leadership, politics and entrepreneurship. Despite significant interest among junior doctors, portfolios are poorly integrated with prevocational and speciality training programs in Australia. The present paper seeks to explore this issue. More formal systems for portfolio careers in Australia have the potential to increase job satisfaction, flexibility and retention, as well as diversify trainee skill sets. Although there are numerous benefits from involvement in portfolio careers, there are also risks to the trainee, employing health service and workforce modelling. Formalising pathways to portfolio careers relies on assessing stakeholder interest, enhancing flexibility in training programs, developing support programs, mentorship and coaching schemes and improving support structures in health services.

Room 109's Portfolios and Our High School Writing Center

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kent, Richard

2006-01-01

In this article, the author describes how he had revised his course expectations and English teaching methods in Room 109 at Mountain Valley High School in Rumford, Maine, with support from the writing center staff. He instituted thematic portfolios, self-selected reading with a wide range of projects in response to that reading, periodic student…

Portion Size Labeling and Intended Soft Drink Consumption: The Impact of Labeling Format and Size Portfolio

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vermeer, Willemijn M.; Steenhuis, Ingrid H. M.; Leeuwis, Franca H.; Bos, Arjan E. R.; de Boer, Michiel; Seidell, Jacob C.

2010-01-01

Objective: To assess what portion size labeling "format" is most promising in helping consumers selecting appropriate soft drink sizes, and whether labeling impact depends on the size portfolio. Methods: An experimental study was conducted in fast-food restaurants in which 2 labeling formats (ie, reference portion size and small/medium/large…

Practitioners' Evaluation on the Procedural Aspects of an English Language Portfolio

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Karababa, Canan; Suzer, Sezgi Sarac

2010-01-01

This study aims to share English language practitioners' reflections on the adaptation of teaching methods and materials during the pre-validation period of the European Language Portfolio (ELP). In order to achieve this aim, a high school was selected as the scope of research, since it has started to adapt the English language teaching…

The Effects of Techniques of Vocabulary Portfolio on L2 Vocabulary Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zarei, Abbas Ali; Baftani, Fahimeh Nasiri

2014-01-01

To investigate the effects of different techniques of vocabulary portfolio including word map, word wizard, concept wheel, visual thesaurus, and word rose on L2 vocabulary comprehension and production, a sample of 75 female EFL learners of Kish Day Language Institute in Karaj, Iran were selected. They were in five groups and each group received…

Static vs stochastic optimization: A case study of FTSE Bursa Malaysia sectorial indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mamat, Nur Jumaadzan Zaleha; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ahmad, Rokiah@Rozita

2014-06-01

Traditional portfolio optimization methods in the likes of Markowitz' mean-variance model and semi-variance model utilize static expected return and volatility risk from historical data to generate an optimal portfolio. The optimal portfolio may not truly be optimal in reality due to the fact that maximum and minimum values from the data may largely influence the expected return and volatility risk values. This paper considers distributions of assets' return and volatility risk to determine a more realistic optimized portfolio. For illustration purposes, the sectorial indices data in FTSE Bursa Malaysia is employed. The results show that stochastic optimization provides more stable information ratio.

System-of-Systems Technology-Portfolio-Analysis Tool

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

O'Neil, Daniel; Mankins, John; Feingold, Harvey; Johnson, Wayne

2012-01-01

Advanced Technology Life-cycle Analysis System (ATLAS) is a system-of-systems technology-portfolio-analysis software tool. ATLAS affords capabilities to (1) compare estimates of the mass and cost of an engineering system based on competing technological concepts; (2) estimate life-cycle costs of an outer-space-exploration architecture for a specified technology portfolio; (3) collect data on state-of-the-art and forecasted technology performance, and on operations and programs; and (4) calculate an index of the relative programmatic value of a technology portfolio. ATLAS facilitates analysis by providing a library of analytical spreadsheet models for a variety of systems. A single analyst can assemble a representation of a system of systems from the models and build a technology portfolio. Each system model estimates mass, and life-cycle costs are estimated by a common set of cost models. Other components of ATLAS include graphical-user-interface (GUI) software, algorithms for calculating the aforementioned index, a technology database, a report generator, and a form generator for creating the GUI for the system models. At the time of this reporting, ATLAS is a prototype, embodied in Microsoft Excel and several thousand lines of Visual Basic for Applications that run on both Windows and Macintosh computers.

Postoptimality Analysis in the Selection of Technology Portfolios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Adumitroaie, Virgil; Shelton, Kacie; Elfes, Alberto; Weisbin, Charles R.

2006-01-01

This slide presentation reviews a process of postoptimally analysing the selection of technology portfolios. The rationale for the analysis stems from the need for consistent, transparent and auditable decision making processes and tools. The methodology is used to assure that project investments are selected through an optimization of net mission value. The main intent of the analysis is to gauge the degree of confidence in the optimal solution and to provide the decision maker with an array of viable selection alternatives which take into account input uncertainties and possibly satisfy non-technical constraints. A few examples of the analysis are reviewed. The goal of the postoptimality study is to enhance and improve the decision-making process by providing additional qualifications and substitutes to the optimal solution.

A semiparametric graphical modelling approach for large-scale equity selection

PubMed Central

Liu, Han; Mulvey, John; Zhao, Tianqi

2016-01-01

We propose a new stock selection strategy that exploits rebalancing returns and improves portfolio performance. To effectively harvest rebalancing gains, we apply ideas from elliptical-copula graphical modelling and stability inference to select stocks that are as independent as possible. The proposed elliptical-copula graphical model has a latent Gaussian representation; its structure can be effectively inferred using the regularized rank-based estimators. The resulting algorithm is computationally efficient and scales to large data-sets. To show the efficacy of the proposed method, we apply it to conduct equity selection based on a 16-year health care stock data-set and a large 34-year stock data-set. Empirical tests show that the proposed method is superior to alternative strategies including a principal component analysis-based approach and the classical Markowitz strategy based on the traditional buy-and-hold assumption. PMID:28316507

Measure for Measure: Using Portfolios in K-8 Mathematics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kuhs, Therese M.

This book attempts to portray the reality that teachers face when trying to use portfolios. It uses anecdotes and examples that help carry important messages about portfolio use and contains model conversations and interactions. The conversations between teachers and students demonstrate strategies for involving children in the assessment process…

Complex Moving Parts: Assessment Systems and Electronic Portfolios

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larkin, Martha J.; Robertson, Royce L.

2013-01-01

The largest college within an online university of over 50,000 students invested significant resources in translating a complex assessment system focused on continuous improvement and national accreditation into an effective and efficient electronic portfolio (ePortfolio). The team building the system needed a model to address problems met…

The Career Advancement Portfolio. Advancement for Low-Wage Workers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jobs for the Future, 2006

2006-01-01

Jobs for the Future created the "Career Advancement Portfolio" as central to its commitment to developing, implementing, and advocating for models, strategies, and policies that enable adults to advance toward economic self-sufficiency for themselves and their families. The "Portfolio" brings together the most innovative workforce development…

Enhanced index tracking modelling in portfolio optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lam, W. S.; Hj. Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ismail, Hamizun bin

2013-09-01

Enhanced index tracking is a popular form of passive fund management in stock market. It is a dual-objective optimization problem, a trade-off between maximizing the mean return and minimizing the risk. Enhanced index tracking aims to generate excess return over the return achieved by the index without purchasing all of the stocks that make up the index by establishing an optimal portfolio. The objective of this study is to determine the optimal portfolio composition and performance by using weighted model in enhanced index tracking. Weighted model focuses on the trade-off between the excess return and the risk. The results of this study show that the optimal portfolio for the weighted model is able to outperform the Malaysia market index which is Kuala Lumpur Composite Index because of higher mean return and lower risk without purchasing all the stocks in the market index.

The national portfolio of learning for postgraduate family medicine training in South Africa: experiences of registrars and supervisors in clinical practice.

PubMed

Jenkins, Louis; Mash, Bob; Derese, Anselme

2013-11-08

In South Africa the submission of a portfolio of learning has become a national requirement for assessment of family medicine training. A national portfolio has been developed, validated and implemented. The aim of this study was to explore registrars' and supervisors' experience regarding the portfolio's educational impact, acceptability, and perceived usefulness for assessment of competence. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 purposively selected registrars and supervisors from all eight South African training programmes. The portfolio primarily had an educational impact through making explicit the expectations of registrars and supervisors in the workplace. This impact was tempered by a lack of engagement in the process by registrars and supervisors who also lacked essential skills in reflection, feedback and assessment. The acceptability of the portfolio was limited by service delivery demands, incongruence between the clinical context and educational requirements, design of the logbook and easy availability of the associated tools. The use of the portfolio for formative assessment was strongly supported and appreciated, but was not always happening and in some cases registrars had even organised peer assessment. Respondents were unclear as to how the portfolio would be used for summative assessment. The learning portfolio had a significant educational impact in shaping work-place based supervision and training and providing formative assessment. Its acceptability and usefulness as a learning tool should increase over time as supervisors and registrars become more competent in its use. There is a need to clarify how it will be used in summative assessment.

Exploring Student Teachers' Views on ePortfolios as an Empowering Tool to Enhance Self-Directed Learning in an Online Teacher Education Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van Wyk, Micheal M.

2017-01-01

This paper explores Economics student teachers' views on ePortfolios as an empowering tool to enhance self-directed learning in an online teacher education course. An interpretive phenomenological research approach was employed for data collection and a purposive convenient sampling technique was selected to collect data. Only Postgraduate…

Using a Portfolio of Algorithms for Planning and Scheduling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sherwood, Robert; Knight, Russell; Rabideau, Gregg; Chien, Steve; Tran, Daniel; Engelhardt, Barbara

2003-01-01

The Automated Scheduling and Planning Environment (ASPEN) software system, aspects of which have been reported in several previous NASA Tech Briefs articles, includes a subsystem that utilizes a portfolio of heuristic algorithms that work synergistically to solve problems. The nature of the synergy of the specific algorithms is that their likelihoods of success are negatively correlated: that is, when a combination of them is used to solve a problem, the probability that at least one of them will succeed is greater than the sum of probabilities of success of the individual algorithms operating independently of each other. In ASPEN, the portfolio of algorithms is used in a planning process of the iterative repair type, in which conflicts are detected and addressed one at a time until either no conflicts exist or a user-defined time limit has been exceeded. At each choice point (e.g., selection of conflict; selection of method of resolution of conflict; or choice of move, addition, or deletion) ASPEN makes a stochastic choice of a combination of algorithms from the portfolio. This approach makes it possible for the search to escape from looping and from solutions that are locally but not globally optimum.

Black-Litterman model on non-normal stock return (Case study four banks at LQ-45 stock index)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahrivandi, Rizki; Noviyanti, Lienda; Setyanto, Gatot Riwi

2017-03-01

The formation of the optimal portfolio is a method that can help investors to minimize risks and optimize profitability. One model for the optimal portfolio is a Black-Litterman (BL) model. BL model can incorporate an element of historical data and the views of investors to form a new prediction about the return of the portfolio as a basis for preparing the asset weighting models. BL model has two fundamental problems, the assumption of normality and estimation parameters on the market Bayesian prior framework that does not from a normal distribution. This study provides an alternative solution where the modelling of the BL model stock returns and investor views from non-normal distribution.

Static vs stochastic optimization: A case study of FTSE Bursa Malaysia sectorial indices

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mamat, Nur Jumaadzan Zaleha; Jaaman, Saiful Hafizah; Ahmad, Rokiah Rozita

2014-06-19

Traditional portfolio optimization methods in the likes of Markowitz' mean-variance model and semi-variance model utilize static expected return and volatility risk from historical data to generate an optimal portfolio. The optimal portfolio may not truly be optimal in reality due to the fact that maximum and minimum values from the data may largely influence the expected return and volatility risk values. This paper considers distributions of assets' return and volatility risk to determine a more realistic optimized portfolio. For illustration purposes, the sectorial indices data in FTSE Bursa Malaysia is employed. The results show that stochastic optimization provides more stablemore » information ratio.« less

A Balanced Portfolio Model For Improving Health: Concept And Vermont's Experience.

PubMed

Hester, James

2018-04-01

A successful strategy for improving population health requires acting in several sectors by implementing a portfolio of interventions. The mix of interventions should be both tailored to meet the community's needs and balanced in several dimensions-for example, time frame, level of risk, and target population. One obstacle is finding sustainable financing for both the interventions and the community infrastructure needed. This article first summarizes Vermont's experience as a laboratory for health reform. It then presents a conceptual model for a community-based population health strategy, using a balanced portfolio and diversified funding approaches. The article then reviews Vermont's population health initiative, including an example of a balanced portfolio and lessons learned from the state's experience.

Robust Portfolio Optimization Using Pseudodistances.

PubMed

Toma, Aida; Leoni-Aubin, Samuela

2015-01-01

The presence of outliers in financial asset returns is a frequently occurring phenomenon which may lead to unreliable mean-variance optimized portfolios. This fact is due to the unbounded influence that outliers can have on the mean returns and covariance estimators that are inputs in the optimization procedure. In this paper we present robust estimators of mean and covariance matrix obtained by minimizing an empirical version of a pseudodistance between the assumed model and the true model underlying the data. We prove and discuss theoretical properties of these estimators, such as affine equivariance, B-robustness, asymptotic normality and asymptotic relative efficiency. These estimators can be easily used in place of the classical estimators, thereby providing robust optimized portfolios. A Monte Carlo simulation study and applications to real data show the advantages of the proposed approach. We study both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of the proposed robust portfolios comparing them with some other portfolios known in literature.

Robust Portfolio Optimization Using Pseudodistances

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The presence of outliers in financial asset returns is a frequently occurring phenomenon which may lead to unreliable mean-variance optimized portfolios. This fact is due to the unbounded influence that outliers can have on the mean returns and covariance estimators that are inputs in the optimization procedure. In this paper we present robust estimators of mean and covariance matrix obtained by minimizing an empirical version of a pseudodistance between the assumed model and the true model underlying the data. We prove and discuss theoretical properties of these estimators, such as affine equivariance, B-robustness, asymptotic normality and asymptotic relative efficiency. These estimators can be easily used in place of the classical estimators, thereby providing robust optimized portfolios. A Monte Carlo simulation study and applications to real data show the advantages of the proposed approach. We study both in-sample and out-of-sample performance of the proposed robust portfolios comparing them with some other portfolios known in literature. PMID:26468948

Mean-variance portfolio optimization by using time series approaches based on logarithmic utility function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soeryana, E.; Fadhlina, N.; Sukono; Rusyaman, E.; Supian, S.

2017-01-01

Investments in stocks investors are also faced with the issue of risk, due to daily price of stock also fluctuate. For minimize the level of risk, investors usually forming an investment portfolio. Establishment of a portfolio consisting of several stocks are intended to get the optimal composition of the investment portfolio. This paper discussed about optimizing investment portfolio of Mean-Variance to stocks by using mean and volatility is not constant based on logarithmic utility function. Non constant mean analysed using models Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), while non constant volatility models are analysed using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH). Optimization process is performed by using the Lagrangian multiplier technique. As a numerical illustration, the method is used to analyse some Islamic stocks in Indonesia. The expected result is to get the proportion of investment in each Islamic stock analysed.

Mean-Variance portfolio optimization by using non constant mean and volatility based on the negative exponential utility function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soeryana, Endang; Halim, Nurfadhlina Bt Abdul; Sukono, Rusyaman, Endang; Supian, Sudradjat

2017-03-01

Investments in stocks investors are also faced with the issue of risk, due to daily price of stock also fluctuate. For minimize the level of risk, investors usually forming an investment portfolio. Establishment of a portfolio consisting of several stocks are intended to get the optimal composition of the investment portfolio. This paper discussed about optimizing investment portfolio of Mean-Variance to stocks by using mean and volatility is not constant based on the Negative Exponential Utility Function. Non constant mean analyzed using models Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), while non constant volatility models are analyzed using the Generalized Autoregressive Conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH). Optimization process is performed by using the Lagrangian multiplier technique. As a numerical illustration, the method is used to analyze some stocks in Indonesia. The expected result is to get the proportion of investment in each stock analyzed

A One-Layer Recurrent Neural Network for Real-Time Portfolio Optimization With Probability Criterion.

PubMed

Liu, Qingshan; Dang, Chuangyin; Huang, Tingwen

2013-02-01

This paper presents a decision-making model described by a recurrent neural network for dynamic portfolio optimization. The portfolio-optimization problem is first converted into a constrained fractional programming problem. Since the objective function in the programming problem is not convex, the traditional optimization techniques are no longer applicable for solving this problem. Fortunately, the objective function in the fractional programming is pseudoconvex on the feasible region. It leads to a one-layer recurrent neural network modeled by means of a discontinuous dynamic system. To ensure the optimal solutions for portfolio optimization, the convergence of the proposed neural network is analyzed and proved. In fact, the neural network guarantees to get the optimal solutions for portfolio-investment advice if some mild conditions are satisfied. A numerical example with simulation results substantiates the effectiveness and illustrates the characteristics of the proposed neural network.

For Portfolio Supporters, Skeptics, and Would-Be Adopters: Some Thoughts from CRPE

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lake, Robin; Jochim, Ashley

2017-01-01

The Center on Reinventing Public Education (CRPE) designed the portfolio model based on the idea that we should move away from a "school system" to, instead, "a system of schools." In essence: school boards should focus on overseeing a "portfolio" of distinctive schools rather than directly running a set of…

Parent-Child Portfolios: "Look--This Book Is All about Us!"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Appl, Dolores J.; Leavitt, Jessica E.; Ryan, Melissa A.

2014-01-01

A team of facilitators describe the process and content of portfolios they create for families attending weekly playgroup sessions based on the philosophy and practices of the Parents Interacting with Infants (PIWI) model. The parent-child portfolios are a form of authentic assessment and highlight children's development within the context of…

Optimization of the bank's operating portfolio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borodachev, S. M.; Medvedev, M. A.

2016-06-01

The theory of efficient portfolios developed by Markowitz is used to optimize the structure of the types of financial operations of a bank (bank portfolio) in order to increase the profit and reduce the risk. The focus of this paper is to check the stability of the model to errors in the original data.

Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management

PubMed Central

Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L. James

2013-01-01

Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of threatened and endangered species. The PDA approach demonstrates the advantages of integrated, top-down management, versus bottom-up management approaches. PMID:23823331

Portfolio Decision Analysis Framework for Value-Focused Ecosystem Management.

PubMed

Convertino, Matteo; Valverde, L James

2013-01-01

Management of natural resources in coastal ecosystems is a complex process that is made more challenging by the need for stakeholders to confront the prospect of sea level rise and a host of other environmental stressors. This situation is especially true for coastal military installations, where resource managers need to balance conflicting objectives of environmental conservation against military mission. The development of restoration plans will necessitate incorporating stakeholder preferences, and will, moreover, require compliance with applicable federal/state laws and regulations. To promote the efficient allocation of scarce resources in space and time, we develop a portfolio decision analytic (PDA) framework that integrates models yielding policy-dependent predictions for changes in land cover and species metapopulations in response to restoration plans, under different climate change scenarios. In a manner that is somewhat analogous to financial portfolios, infrastructure and natural resources are classified as human and natural assets requiring management. The predictions serve as inputs to a Multi Criteria Decision Analysis model (MCDA) that is used to measure the benefits of restoration plans, as well as to construct Pareto frontiers that represent optimal portfolio allocations of restoration actions and resources. Optimal plans allow managers to maintain or increase asset values by contrasting the overall degradation of the habitat and possible increased risk of species decline against the benefits of mission success. The optimal combination of restoration actions that emerge from the PDA framework allows decision-makers to achieve higher environmental benefits, with equal or lower costs, than those achievable by adopting the myopic prescriptions of the MCDA model. The analytic framework presented here is generalizable for the selection of optimal management plans in any ecosystem where human use of the environment conflicts with the needs of threatened and endangered species. The PDA approach demonstrates the advantages of integrated, top-down management, versus bottom-up management approaches.

The Critical Infrastructure Portfolio Selection Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-06-13

equal to zero (0.0). In terms of what a DMU might represent in reality, consider a restaurant owner who owns a set of restaurant franchises . That...that is described within this thesis, the DMUs are CI reconstruction projects. Just like the aforementioned restaurant franchise owner, a leader...owner is justifiably interested in knowing which restaurants turn a profit or provide quality service, both necessary benefits (outputs), based on the

A nonlinear bi-level programming approach for product portfolio management.

PubMed

Ma, Shuang

2016-01-01

Product portfolio management (PPM) is a critical decision-making for companies across various industries in today's competitive environment. Traditional studies on PPM problem have been motivated toward engineering feasibilities and marketing which relatively pay less attention to other competitors' actions and the competitive relations, especially in mathematical optimization domain. The key challenge lies in that how to construct a mathematical optimization model to describe this Stackelberg game-based leader-follower PPM problem and the competitive relations between them. The primary work of this paper is the representation of a decision framework and the optimization model to leverage the PPM problem of leader and follower. A nonlinear, integer bi-level programming model is developed based on the decision framework. Furthermore, a bi-level nested genetic algorithm is put forward to solve this nonlinear bi-level programming model for leader-follower PPM problem. A case study of notebook computer product portfolio optimization is reported. Results and analyses reveal that the leader-follower bi-level optimization model is robust and can empower product portfolio optimization.

Belief Propagation Algorithm for Portfolio Optimization Problems

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti et al. [Eur. Phys. B. 57, 175 (2007)]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation method for finding the optimal portfolio with respect to a given return set. In this study, an approximation algorithm based on belief propagation for the portfolio optimization problem is presented using the Bethe free energy formalism, and the consistency of the numerical experimental results of the proposed algorithm with those of replica analysis is confirmed. Furthermore, the conjecture of H. Konno and H. Yamazaki, that the optimal solutions with the absolute deviation model and with the mean-variance model have the same typical behavior, is verified using replica analysis and the belief propagation algorithm. PMID:26305462

Belief Propagation Algorithm for Portfolio Optimization Problems.

PubMed

Shinzato, Takashi; Yasuda, Muneki

2015-01-01

The typical behavior of optimal solutions to portfolio optimization problems with absolute deviation and expected shortfall models using replica analysis was pioneeringly estimated by S. Ciliberti et al. [Eur. Phys. B. 57, 175 (2007)]; however, they have not yet developed an approximate derivation method for finding the optimal portfolio with respect to a given return set. In this study, an approximation algorithm based on belief propagation for the portfolio optimization problem is presented using the Bethe free energy formalism, and the consistency of the numerical experimental results of the proposed algorithm with those of replica analysis is confirmed. Furthermore, the conjecture of H. Konno and H. Yamazaki, that the optimal solutions with the absolute deviation model and with the mean-variance model have the same typical behavior, is verified using replica analysis and the belief propagation algorithm.

Report Carding: A Model for Foundation Portfolio Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schmitz, Connie C.; Schillo, Barbara A.

2005-01-01

This article reviews changes in the accountability landscape that have occurred for foundations in recent years and several precedents for foundation performance assessment. The authors then present a model of portfolio assessment that is used for organizational accountability and learning. This model, which was piloted in 2002 and 2003 for the…

Portfolios: An Alternative Method of Student and Program Assessment

PubMed Central

Hannam, Susan E.

1995-01-01

The use of performance-based evaluation and alternative assessment techniques has become essential for curriculum programs seeking Commission of Accreditation of Allied Health Education Programs (CAAHEP) accreditation. In athletic training education, few assessment models exist to assess student performance over the entire course of their educational program. This article describes a model of assessment-a student athletic training portfolio of “best works.” The portfolio can serve as a method to assess student development and to assess program effectiveness. The goals of the program include purposes specific to the five NATA performance domains. In addition, four types of portfolio evidence are described: artifacts, attestations, productions, and reproductions. Quality assignments and projects completed by students as they progress through a six-semester program are identified relative to the type of evidence and the domain(s) they represent. The portfolio assists with student development, provides feedback for curriculum planning, allows for student/faculty collaboration and “coaching” of the student, and assists with job searching. This information will serve as a useful model for those athletic training programs looking for an alternative method of assessing student and program outcomes. PMID:16558359

Replica Approach for Minimal Investment Risk with Cost

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinzato, Takashi

2018-06-01

In the present work, the optimal portfolio minimizing the investment risk with cost is discussed analytically, where an objective function is constructed in terms of two negative aspects of investment, the risk and cost. We note the mathematical similarity between the Hamiltonian in the mean-variance model and the Hamiltonians in the Hopfield model and the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model, show that we can analyze this portfolio optimization problem by using replica analysis, and derive the minimal investment risk with cost and the investment concentration of the optimal portfolio. Furthermore, we validate our proposed method through numerical simulations.

Development and Implementation of a Curricular-wide Electronic Portfolio System in a School of Pharmacy

PubMed Central

Lopez, Tina C.; Trang, David D.; Farrell, Nicole C.; De Leon, Melissa A.; Villarreal, Cynthia C.; Maize, David F.

2011-01-01

The Feik School of Pharmacy collaborated with a commercial software development company to create a Web-based e-portfolio system to document student achievement of curricular outcomes and performance in pharmacy practice experiences. The multi-functional system also could be used for experiential site selection and assignment and continuing pharmacy education. The pharmacy school trained students, faculty members, and pharmacist preceptors to use the e-portfolio system. All pharmacy students uploaded the required number of documents and assessments to the program as evidence of achievement of each of the school's curricular outcomes and completion of pharmacy practice experiences. PMID:21829263

Use of Portfolio Assessment Technique in Teaching Map Sketching and Location in Secondary School Geography in Jos, Nigeria

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ugodulunwa, Christiana; Wakjissa, Sayita

2015-01-01

This study investigated the use of portfolio assessment technique in teaching map sketching and location in geography in Jos, Nigeria. It adopted a quasi-experimental design. Two schools were selected using a table of random numbers from a population of 51 schools in Jos South and assigned to each of experimental and control group. The…

Portfolio Development and the Assessment of Prior Learning: Perspectives, Models and Practices. Second Edition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michelson, Elana; Mandell, Alan

2004-01-01

For over thirty years, portfolios have been used to help adult learners gain recognition for their prior learning and take greater control of their educational experiences. The portfolio has become a distinctive means of assessing such learning, serving as a meaningful alternative to conventional papers and standardized testing. This book provides…

Local Politics and Portfolio Management Models: National Reform Ideas and Local Control

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bulkley, Katrina E.; Henig, Jeffrey R.

2015-01-01

Amid the growth of charter schools, autonomous schools, and private management organizations, an increasing number of urban districts are moving toward a portfolio management model (PMM). In a PMM, the district central office oversees schools that operate under a variety of governance models. The expansion of PMMs raises questions about local…

Critical asset and portfolio risk analysis: an all-hazards framework.

PubMed

Ayyub, Bilal M; McGill, William L; Kaminskiy, Mark

2007-08-01

This article develops a quantitative all-hazards framework for critical asset and portfolio risk analysis (CAPRA) that considers both natural and human-caused hazards. Following a discussion on the nature of security threats, the need for actionable risk assessments, and the distinction between asset and portfolio-level analysis, a general formula for all-hazards risk analysis is obtained that resembles the traditional model based on the notional product of consequence, vulnerability, and threat, though with clear meanings assigned to each parameter. Furthermore, a simple portfolio consequence model is presented that yields first-order estimates of interdependency effects following a successful attack on an asset. Moreover, depending on the needs of the decisions being made and available analytical resources, values for the parameters in this model can be obtained at a high level or through detailed systems analysis. Several illustrative examples of the CAPRA methodology are provided.

Optimal Decision-making Model of Integrated Water Resources Management - A Case of Hsinchu Water Resources Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, S. Y.; Ho, C. C.; Chang, L. C.

2017-12-01

The public use water in Hsinchu are mainly supplied from Baoshan Reservoir, Second Baoshan Reservoir, Yongheshan Reservoir and Longen Weir. However, the increasing water demand, caused by development of the Hsinchu Science and Industrial Park, results in supply stable water getting more difficult. For stabilize water supply in Hsinchu, the study applies long-term and short-term plans to fulfill the water shortage. Developing an efficient methodology to define a cost-effective action portfolio is an important task. Hence, the study develops a novel decision model, the Stochastic Programming with Recourse Decision Model (SPRDM), to estimate a cost-effective action portfolio. The first-stage of SPRDM determine the long-term action portfolio and the portfolio accompany recourse information (the probability for water shortage event). The second-stage of SPRDM optimize the cost-effective action portfolio in response to the recourse information. In order to consider the uncertainty of reservoir sediment and demand growth, the study set 9 scenarios comprise optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic reservoir sediment and demand growth. The results show the optimal action portfolio consist of FengTain Lake and Panlon Weir, Hsinchu Desalination Plant, Domestic and Industrial Water long-term plans, and Emergency Backup Well, Irrigation Water Transference, Preliminary Water Rationing, Advanced Water Rationing and Water Transport from Other Districts short-term plans. The minimum expected cost of optimal action portfolio is NT$1.1002 billion. The results can be used as a reference for decision making because the results have considered the uncertainty of varied hydrology, reservoir sediment, and water demand growth.

The national portfolio of learning for postgraduate family medicine training in South Africa: experiences of registrars and supervisors in clinical practice

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background In South Africa the submission of a portfolio of learning has become a national requirement for assessment of family medicine training. A national portfolio has been developed, validated and implemented. The aim of this study was to explore registrars’ and supervisors’ experience regarding the portfolio’s educational impact, acceptability, and perceived usefulness for assessment of competence. Methods Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 17 purposively selected registrars and supervisors from all eight South African training programmes. Results The portfolio primarily had an educational impact through making explicit the expectations of registrars and supervisors in the workplace. This impact was tempered by a lack of engagement in the process by registrars and supervisors who also lacked essential skills in reflection, feedback and assessment. The acceptability of the portfolio was limited by service delivery demands, incongruence between the clinical context and educational requirements, design of the logbook and easy availability of the associated tools. The use of the portfolio for formative assessment was strongly supported and appreciated, but was not always happening and in some cases registrars had even organised peer assessment. Respondents were unclear as to how the portfolio would be used for summative assessment. Conclusions The learning portfolio had a significant educational impact in shaping work-place based supervision and training and providing formative assessment. Its acceptability and usefulness as a learning tool should increase over time as supervisors and registrars become more competent in its use. There is a need to clarify how it will be used in summative assessment. PMID:24207009

Making practice transparent through e-portfolio.

PubMed

Stewart, Sarah M

2013-12-01

Midwives are required to maintain a professional portfolio as part of their statutory requirements. Some midwives are using open social networking tools and processes to develop an e-portfolio. However, confidentiality of patient and client data and professional reputation have to be taken into consideration when using online public spaces for reflection. There is little evidence about how midwives use social networking tools for ongoing learning. It is uncertain how reflecting in an e-portfolio with an audience impacts on learning outcomes. This paper investigates ways in which reflective midwifery practice be carried out using e-portfolio in open, social networking platforms using collaborative processes. Using an auto-ethnographic approach I explored my e-portfolio and selected posts that had attracted six or more comments. I used thematic analysis to identify themes within the textual conversations in the posts and responses posted by readers. The analysis identified that my collaborative e-portfolio had four themes: to provide commentary and discuss issues; to reflect and process learning; to seek advice, brainstorm and process ideas for practice, projects and research, and provide evidence of professional development. E-portfolio using open social networking tools and processes is a viable option for midwives because it facilitates collaborative reflection and shared learning. However, my experience shows that concerns about what people think, and client confidentiality does impact on the nature of open reflection and learning outcomes. I conclude this paper with a framework for managing midwifery statutory obligations using online public spaces and social networking tools. Copyright © 2013 Australian College of Midwives. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Feasibility and Outcomes of Implementing a Portfolio Assessment System Alongside a Traditional Grading System.

PubMed

O'Brien, Celia Laird; Sanguino, Sandra M; Thomas, John X; Green, Marianne M

2016-11-01

Portfolios are a powerful tool to collect and evaluate evidence of medical students' competence across time. However, comprehensive portfolio assessment systems that are implemented alongside traditional graded curricula at medical schools in the United States have not been described in the literature. This study describes the development and implementation of a longitudinal competency-based electronic portfolio system alongside a graded curriculum at a relatively large U.S. medical school. In 2009, the authors developed a portfolio system that served as a repository for all student assessments organized by competency domain. Five competencies were selected for a preclerkship summative portfolio review. Students submitted reflections on their performance. In 2014, four clinical faculty members participated in standard-setting activities and used expert judgment and holistic review to rate students' competency achievement as "progressing toward competence," "progressing toward competence with some concern," or "progressing toward competence pending remediation." Follow-up surveys measured students' and faculty members' perceptions of the process. Faculty evaluated 156 portfolios and showed high levels of agreement in their ratings. The majority of students achieved the "progressing toward competence" benchmark in all competency areas. However, 31 students received at least one concerning rating, which was not reflected in their course grades. Students' perceptions of the system's ability to foster self-assessment were mixed. The portfolio review process allowed faculty to identify students with a concerning rating in a behavioral competency who would not have been identified in a traditional grading system. Identification of these students allows for intervention and early remediation.

Effect of a dietary portfolio of cholesterol-lowering foods given at 2 levels of intensity of dietary advice on serum lipids in hyperlipidemia: a randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Jenkins, David J A; Jones, Peter J H; Lamarche, Benoit; Kendall, Cyril W C; Faulkner, Dorothea; Cermakova, Luba; Gigleux, Iris; Ramprasath, Vanu; de Souza, Russell; Ireland, Chris; Patel, Darshna; Srichaikul, Korbua; Abdulnour, Shahad; Bashyam, Balachandran; Collier, Cheryl; Hoshizaki, Sandy; Josse, Robert G; Leiter, Lawrence A; Connelly, Philip W; Frohlich, Jiri

2011-08-24

Combining foods with recognized cholesterol-lowering properties (dietary portfolio) has proven highly effective in lowering serum cholesterol under metabolically controlled conditions. To assess the effect of a dietary portfolio administered at 2 levels of intensity on percentage change in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) among participants following self-selected diets. A parallel-design study of 351 participants with hyperlipidemia from 4 participating academic centers across Canada (Quebec City, Toronto, Winnipeg, and Vancouver) randomized between June 25, 2007, and February 19, 2009, to 1 of 3 treatments lasting 6 months. Participants received dietary advice for 6 months on either a low-saturated fat therapeutic diet (control) or a dietary portfolio, for which counseling was delivered at different frequencies, that emphasized dietary incorporation of plant sterols, soy protein, viscous fibers, and nuts. Routine dietary portfolio involved 2 clinic visits over 6 months and intensive dietary portfolio involved 7 clinic visits over 6 months. Percentage change in serum LDL-C. In the modified intention-to-treat analysis of 345 participants, the overall attrition rate was not significantly different between treatments (18% for intensive dietary portfolio, 23% for routine dietary portfolio, and 26% for control; Fisher exact test, P = .33). The LDL-C reductions from an overall mean of 171 mg/dL (95% confidence interval [CI], 168-174 mg/dL) were -13.8% (95% CI, -17.2% to -10.3%; P < .001) or -26 mg/dL (95% CI, -31 to -21 mg/dL; P < .001) for the intensive dietary portfolio; -13.1% (95% CI, -16.7% to -9.5%; P < .001) or -24 mg/dL (95% CI, -30 to -19 mg/dL; P < .001) for the routine dietary portfolio; and -3.0% (95% CI, -6.1% to 0.1%; P = .06) or -8 mg/dL (95% CI, -13 to -3 mg/dL; P = .002) for the control diet. Percentage LDL-C reductions for each dietary portfolio were significantly more than the control diet (P < .001, respectively). The 2 dietary portfolio interventions did not differ significantly (P = .66). Among participants randomized to one of the dietary portfolio interventions, percentage reduction in LDL-C on the dietary portfolio was associated with dietary adherence (r = -0.34, n = 157, P < .001). Use of a dietary portfolio compared with the low-saturated fat dietary advice resulted in greater LDL-C lowering during 6 months of follow-up. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00438425.

Myopia management: multihospital portfolio planning.

PubMed

Irish, G G

1987-10-01

The acquisition and divestiture of organizational business units demonstrate management's strategy in response to an evolving marketplace. From a strategic perspective, the most significant danger to a corporation is not having the "right" portfolio of businesses or products to respond to the marketplace. This article describes a conceptual model that a multihospital system executive might use to determine the growth and diversification of the organization's portfolio of businesses. The model involves the application of market, financial, and microeconomic theories in a logical sequence to assist management in making business acquisition and divestiture decisions.

Transitioning from Students to Professionals: Using a Writing across the Curriculum Model to Scaffold Portfolio Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elliott, Lori; Daily, Nancy Lee; Fredricks, Lori; Graham, Meadow Sherrill

2008-01-01

Teacher educators have found portfolios to be a valuable way to judge readiness for student-teaching and initial certification as well as an effective means of examining and validating teacher preparation programs. Tension exists between using the portfolio as a product for evaluation and maintaining its focus as a personal examination, synthesis,…

Portfolio Practices in Higher Education in Norway in an International Perspective: Macro-, Meso- and Micro-Level Influences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dysthe, Olga; Engelsen, Knut Steinar

2011-01-01

The point of departure for this article is the "chameleon" aspect of portfolios and the diversity of portfolio models and practices in higher education on the international arena today. Our aim is to investigate the contextual character of this diversity by using Norwegian higher education as an example and to show how macro-level…

Are Integrated Portfolio Systems the Answer? An Evaluation of a Web-Based Portfolio System to Improve Preservice Teachers' Reflective Thinking Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oner, Diler; Adadan, Emine

2016-01-01

This study investigated the effectiveness of an integrated web-based portfolio system, namely the BOUNCE System, which primarily focuses on improving preservice teachers' reflective thinking skills. BOUNCE©, the software component of the system, was designed and developed to support a teaching practice model including a cycle of activities to be…

Reflective Practice: The Scholarship of Teaching and Learning. The CEET Faculty Development Program on Teaching and Learning. Second Edition: 2009 College Portfolio. Volumes I-IV

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scarborough, Jule Dee

2009-01-01

"2009 Portfolio: The Second Edition of the College of Engineering's Portfolio" presents the 2009 Faculty Development Program on Teaching & Learning (TL) new content, modified models, new process and procedures, especially the new Instructional Analysis and Design Process Map, new PowerPoint presentations, modified teaching and…

Markov model of the loan portfolio dynamics considering influence of management and external economic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bozhalkina, Yana; Timofeeva, Galina

2016-12-01

Mathematical model of loan portfolio in the form of a controlled Markov chain with discrete time is considered. It is assumed that coefficients of migration matrix depend on corrective actions and external factors. Corrective actions include process of receiving applications, interaction with existing solvent and insolvent clients. External factors are macroeconomic indicators, such as inflation and unemployment rates, exchange rates, consumer price indices, etc. Changes in corrective actions adjust the intensity of transitions in the migration matrix. The mathematical model for forecasting the credit portfolio structure taking into account a cumulative impact of internal and external changes is obtained.

A Comparison of the Effects of Reflective Learning Portfolios and Dialogue Journal Writing on Iranian EFL Learners' Accuracy in Writing Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hemmati, Fatemeh; Soltanpour, Fatemeh

2012-01-01

This study aimed at comparing the effects of reflective learning portfolio (RLP) and dialogue journal writing (DJW) on the Iranian EFL learners' grammatical accuracy in writing as well as their overall writing performance. 60 Iranian EFL learners between the ages of 17 to 30 who were studying at general English courses were selected based on their…

Risk-Based Sampling: I Don't Want to Weight in Vain.

PubMed

Powell, Mark R

2015-12-01

Recently, there has been considerable interest in developing risk-based sampling for food safety and animal and plant health for efficient allocation of inspection and surveillance resources. The problem of risk-based sampling allocation presents a challenge similar to financial portfolio analysis. Markowitz (1952) laid the foundation for modern portfolio theory based on mean-variance optimization. However, a persistent challenge in implementing portfolio optimization is the problem of estimation error, leading to false "optimal" portfolios and unstable asset weights. In some cases, portfolio diversification based on simple heuristics (e.g., equal allocation) has better out-of-sample performance than complex portfolio optimization methods due to estimation uncertainty. Even for portfolios with a modest number of assets, the estimation window required for true optimization may imply an implausibly long stationary period. The implications for risk-based sampling are illustrated by a simple simulation model of lot inspection for a small, heterogeneous group of producers. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Ergonomic evaluation of workload by milk production - a bibliometric analysis.

PubMed

de Oliveira, Claudilaine Caldas; Pereira Moro, Antônio Renato; Ulbricht, Leandra; Belinelli, Marjorie; de Souza, Gilberto F M; Gabriel, Michele; Zattar, Izabel Cristina

2017-09-21

The purpose of this study was to select in a structured manner the relevant articles with scientific recognition, and simultaneously identify the characteristics of these publications that may scientifically enrich the theme in a portfolio of papers. The theme involves ergonomics in milk production as a criterion for evaluating and improving organizational performance in the milking sector. The study used ProKnow-C as a theoretical instrument for intervention. The main results show: i) a bibliographic portfolio of 18 items aligned with the view adopted by researchers which served as a theoretical framework for this research; ii) The article entitled "Wrist positions and movements as possible risk factors during machine milking", by Marianne Stål, Gert-Åke Hansson and Ulrich Moritz in 1999 and published in the Journal of Applied Ergonomics presented the highest scientific recognition, iii) the authors highlighted in the bibliographic portfolio or in its references researching the subject are Gert-Åke Hansson, Marianne Stål and Stefan Pinzke, and iv) the International Journal of Industrial Ergonomics shows the highest number of scientific articles in the bibliographic portfolio. The studies selected using the methodology indicate research in ergonomics focused on the production of milk in rural areas, specifically in the milking sector, are generally related to the health and safety of the workers.

Estimating risk of foreign exchange portfolio: Using VaR and CVaR based on GARCH-EVT-Copula model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zong-Run; Chen, Xiao-Hong; Jin, Yan-Bo; Zhou, Yan-Ju

2010-11-01

This paper introduces GARCH-EVT-Copula model and applies it to study the risk of foreign exchange portfolio. Multivariate Copulas, including Gaussian, t and Clayton ones, were used to describe a portfolio risk structure, and to extend the analysis from a bivariate to an n-dimensional asset allocation problem. We apply this methodology to study the returns of a portfolio of four major foreign currencies in China, including USD, EUR, JPY and HKD. Our results suggest that the optimal investment allocations are similar across different Copulas and confidence levels. In addition, we find that the optimal investment concentrates on the USD investment. Generally speaking, t Copula and Clayton Copula better portray the correlation structure of multiple assets than Normal Copula.

Matching a Distribution by Matching Quantiles Estimation

PubMed Central

Sgouropoulos, Nikolaos; Yao, Qiwei; Yastremiz, Claudia

2015-01-01

Motivated by the problem of selecting representative portfolios for backtesting counterparty credit risks, we propose a matching quantiles estimation (MQE) method for matching a target distribution by that of a linear combination of a set of random variables. An iterative procedure based on the ordinary least-squares estimation (OLS) is proposed to compute MQE. MQE can be easily modified by adding a LASSO penalty term if a sparse representation is desired, or by restricting the matching within certain range of quantiles to match a part of the target distribution. The convergence of the algorithm and the asymptotic properties of the estimation, both with or without LASSO, are established. A measure and an associated statistical test are proposed to assess the goodness-of-match. The finite sample properties are illustrated by simulation. An application in selecting a counterparty representative portfolio with a real dataset is reported. The proposed MQE also finds applications in portfolio tracking, which demonstrates the usefulness of combining MQE with LASSO. PMID:26692592

Building uncertainty into cost-effectiveness rankings: portfolio risk-return tradeoffs and implications for decision rules.

PubMed

O'Brien, B J; Sculpher, M J

2000-05-01

Current principles of cost-effectiveness analysis emphasize the rank ordering of programs by expected economic return (eg, quality-adjusted life-years gained per dollar expended). This criterion ignores the variance associated with the cost-effectiveness of a program, yet variance is a common measure of risk when financial investment options are appraised. Variation in health care program return is likely to be a criterion of program selection for health care managers with fixed budgets and outcome performance targets. Characterizing health care resource allocation as a risky investment problem, we show how concepts of portfolio analysis from financial economics can be adopted as a conceptual framework for presenting cost-effectiveness data from multiple programs as mean-variance data. Two specific propositions emerge: (1) the current convention of ranking programs by expected return is a special case of the portfolio selection problem in which the decision maker is assumed to be indifferent to risk, and (2) for risk-averse decision makers, the degree of joint risk or covariation in cost-effectiveness between programs will create incentives to diversify an investment portfolio. The conventional normative assumption of risk neutrality for social-level public investment decisions does not apply to a large number of health care resource allocation decisions in which health care managers seek to maximize returns subject to budget constraints and performance targets. Portfolio theory offers a useful framework for studying mean-variance tradeoffs in cost-effectiveness and offers some positive predictions (and explanations) of actual decision making in the health care sector.

Application of Complex Adaptive Systems in Portfolio Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Su, Zheyuan

2017-01-01

Simulation-based methods are becoming a promising research tool in financial markets. A general Complex Adaptive System can be tailored to different application scenarios. Based on the current research, we built two models that would benefit portfolio management by utilizing Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) in Agent-based Modeling (ABM) approach.…

Developing a Model for ePortfolio Design: A Studio Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carpenter, Russell; Apostel, Shawn; Hyndman, June Overton

2012-01-01

After developing and testing a model for integrative collaboration at Eastern Kentucky University's Noel Studio for Academic Creativity, we offer results that highlight the potential for peer review to significantly and positively impact the ePortfolio design process for students. The results of this classroom/studio collaboration suggest that…

A Qualitative Approach to Portfolios: The Early Assessment for Exceptional Potential Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shaklee, Beverly D.; Viechnicki, Karen J.

1995-01-01

The Early Assessment for Exceptional Potential portfolio assessment model assesses children as exceptional learners, users, generators, and pursuers of knowledge. It is based on use of authentic learning opportunities; interaction of assessment, curriculum, and instruction; multiple criteria derived from multiple sources; and systematic teacher…

Flow of Funds Modeling for Localized Financial Markets: An Application of Spatial Price and Allocation Activity Analysis Models.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-01

on modeling the managerial aspects of the firm. The second has been the application to economic theory led by ...individual portfolio optimization problems which were embedded in a larger global optimization problem. In the global problem, portfolios were linked by market ...demand quantities or be given by linear demand relationships. As in~ the source markets , the model

The Role of Nuclear Power in Reducing Risk of the Fossil Fuel Prices and Diversity of Electricity Generation in Tunisia: A Portfolio Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdelhamid, Mohamed Ben; Aloui, Chaker; Chaton, Corinne; Souissi, Jomâa

2010-04-01

This paper applies real options and mean-variance portfolio theories to analyze the electricity generation planning into presence of nuclear power plant for the Tunisian case. First, we analyze the choice between fossil fuel and nuclear production. A dynamic model is presented to illustrate the impact of fossil fuel cost uncertainty on the optimal timing to switch from gas to nuclear. Next, we use the portfolio theory to manage risk of the electricity generation portfolio and to determine the optimal fuel mix with the nuclear alternative. Based on portfolio theory, the results show that there is other optimal mix than the mix fixed for the Tunisian mix for the horizon 2010-2020, with lower cost for the same risk degree. In the presence of nuclear technology, we found that the optimal generating portfolio must include 13% of nuclear power technology share.

Profiles and portfolios of adolescent school-based extracurricular activity participation.

PubMed

Feldman, A F; Matjasko, J L

2007-04-01

The current study presented a new description of adolescent school-based activity participation, in the form of mutually exclusive activity portfolios, and described the kinds of youth that participate in each portfolio. These portfolios included (1) Sports Only, (2) Academics Only, (3) School Only, (4) Performance Only, (5) Multiple Activities, and (6) Non-Participation. Findings indicated that youth demographic characteristics and school size differentiated between different kinds of activity participation as well as nonparticipation. More detailed activity portfolios were also identified that were complex and demonstrate the difficulty of examining participation beyond larger, more inclusive groupings. The Multiple Activity portfolio emerged as a unique group worthy of further examination. Characteristics of non-participators included: lower socioeconomic status, lower grades, and attended larger schools. Hispanic adolescents were also less likely to participate in school-based extracurricular activities. Findings from this study inform ecological models of adolescent development as well as school and social policy.

Studies on combined model based on functional objectives of large scale complex engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuting, Wang; Jingchun, Feng; Jiabao, Sun

2018-03-01

As various functions were included in large scale complex engineering, and each function would be conducted with completion of one or more projects, combined projects affecting their functions should be located. Based on the types of project portfolio, the relationship of projects and their functional objectives were analyzed. On that premise, portfolio projects-technics based on their functional objectives were introduced, then we studied and raised the principles of portfolio projects-technics based on the functional objectives of projects. In addition, The processes of combined projects were also constructed. With the help of portfolio projects-technics based on the functional objectives of projects, our research findings laid a good foundation for management of large scale complex engineering portfolio management.

A portfolio approach to evaluating natural hazard mitigation policies: An Application to lateral-spread ground failure in Coastal California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bernknopf, R.L.; Dinitz, L.B.; Rabinovici, S.J.M.; Evans, A.M.

2001-01-01

In the past, efforts to prevent catastrophic losses from natural hazards have largely been undertaken by individual property owners based on site-specific evaluations of risks to particular buildings. Public efforts to assess community vulnerability and encourage mitigation have focused on either aggregating site-specific estimates or adopting standards based upon broad assumptions about regional risks. This paper develops an alternative, intermediate-scale approach to regional risk assessment and the evaluation of community mitigation policies. Properties are grouped into types with similar land uses and levels of hazard, and hypothetical community mitigation strategies for protecting these properties are modeled like investment portfolios. The portfolios consist of investments in mitigation against the risk to a community posed by a specific natural hazard, and are defined by a community's mitigation budget and the proportion of the budget invested in locations of each type. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated through an integrated assessment of earthquake-induced lateral-spread ground failure risk in the Watsonville, California area. Data from the magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989 are used to model lateral-spread ground failure susceptibility. Earth science and economic data are combined and analyzed in a Geographic Information System (GIS). The portfolio model is then used to evaluate the benefits of mitigating the risk in different locations. Two mitigation policies, one that prioritizes mitigation by land use type and the other by hazard zone, are compared with a status quo policy of doing no further mitigation beyond that which already exists. The portfolio representing the hazard zone rule yields a higher expected return than the land use portfolio does: However, the hazard zone portfolio experiences a higher standard deviation. Therefore, neither portfolio is clearly preferred. The two mitigation policies both reduce expected losses and increase overall expected community wealth compared to the status quo policy.

Business Model Evaluation for an Advanced Multimedia Service Portfolio

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pisciella, Paolo; Zoric, Josip; Gaivoronski, Alexei A.

In this paper we analyze quantitatively a business model for the collaborative provision of an advanced mobile data service portfolio composed of three multimedia services: Video on Demand, Internet Protocol Television and User Generated Content. We provide a description of the provision system considering the relation occurring between tecnical aspects and business aspects for each agent providing the basic multimedia service. Such a techno-business analysis is then projected into a mathematical model dealing with the problem of the definition of incentives between the different agents involved in a collaborative service provision. Through the implementation of this model we aim at shaping the behaviour of each of the contributing agents modifying the level of profitability that the Service Portfolio yields to each of them.

Random matrix theory filters and currency portfolio optimisation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daly, J.; Crane, M.; Ruskin, H. J.

2010-04-01

Random matrix theory (RMT) filters have recently been shown to improve the optimisation of financial portfolios. This paper studies the effect of three RMT filters on realised portfolio risk, using bootstrap analysis and out-of-sample testing. We considered the case of a foreign exchange and commodity portfolio, weighted towards foreign exchange, and consisting of 39 assets. This was intended to test the limits of RMT filtering, which is more obviously applicable to portfolios with larger numbers of assets. We considered both equally and exponentially weighted covariance matrices, and observed that, despite the small number of assets involved, RMT filters reduced risk in a way that was consistent with a much larger S&P 500 portfolio. The exponential weightings indicated showed good consistency with the value suggested by Riskmetrics, in contrast to previous results involving stocks. This decay factor, along with the low number of past moves preferred in the filtered, equally weighted case, displayed a trend towards models which were reactive to recent market changes. On testing portfolios with fewer assets, RMT filtering provided less or no overall risk reduction. In particular, no long term out-of-sample risk reduction was observed for a portfolio consisting of 15 major currencies and commodities.

Analysis of portfolio optimization with lot of stocks amount constraint: case study index LQ45

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chin, Liem; Chendra, Erwinna; Sukmana, Agus

2018-01-01

To form an optimum portfolio (in the sense of minimizing risk and / or maximizing return), the commonly used model is the mean-variance model of Markowitz. However, there is no amount of lots of stocks constraint. And, retail investors in Indonesia cannot do short selling. So, in this study we will develop an existing model by adding an amount of lot of stocks and short-selling constraints to get the minimum risk of portfolio with and without any target return. We will analyse the stocks listed in the LQ45 index based on the stock market capitalization. To perform this analysis, we will use Solver that available in Microsoft Excel.

Students' reflections in a portfolio pilot: highlighting professional issues.

PubMed

Haffling, Ann-Christin; Beckman, Anders; Pahlmblad, Annika; Edgren, Gudrun

2010-01-01

Portfolios are highlighted as potential assessment tools for professional competence. Although students' self-reflections are considered to be central in the portfolio, the content of reflections in practice-based portfolios is seldom analysed. To investigate whether students' reflections include sufficient dimensions of professional competence, notwithstanding a standardized portfolio format, and to evaluate students' satisfaction with the portfolio. Thirty-five voluntary final-year medical students piloted a standardized portfolio in a general practice (GP) attachment at Lund University, Sweden. Students' portfolio reflections were based upon documentary evidence from practice, and aimed to demonstrate students' learning. The reflections were qualitatively analysed, using a framework approach. Students' evaluations of the portfolio were subjected to quantitative and qualitative analysis. Among professional issues, an integration of cognitive, affective and practical dimensions in clinical practice was provided by students' reflections. The findings suggested an emphasis on affective issues, particularly on self-awareness of feelings, attitudes and concerns. In addition, ethical problems, clinical reasoning strategies and future communication skills training were subjects of several reflective commentaries. Students' reflections on their consultation skills demonstrated their endeavour to achieve structure in the medical interview by negotiation of an agenda for the consultation, keeping the interview on track, and using internal summarizing. The importance of active listening and exploration of patient's perspective was also emphasized. In students' case summaries, illustrating characteristic attributes of GP, the dominating theme was 'patient-centred care', including the patient-doctor relationship, holistic modelling and longitudinal continuity. Students were satisfied with the portfolio, but improved instructions were needed. A standardized portfolio in a defined course with a limited timeframe provided ample opportunities for reflections on professional issues. Support by mentors and a final examiner interview contributed to the success of the portfolio with students. The interview also allowed students to deepen their reflections and to receive feedback.

Integrated wetland management for waterfowl and shorebirds at Mattamuskeet National Wildlife Refuge, North Carolina

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tavernia, Brian G.; Stanton, John D.; Lyons, James E.

2017-11-22

Mattamuskeet National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) offers a mix of open water, marsh, forest, and cropland habitats on 20,307 hectares in coastal North Carolina. In 1934, Federal legislation (Executive Order 6924) established MNWR to benefit wintering waterfowl and other migratory bird species. On an annual basis, the refuge staff decide how to manage 14 impoundments to benefit not only waterfowl during the nonbreeding season, but also shorebirds during fall and spring migration. In making these decisions, the challenge is to select a portfolio, or collection, of management actions for the impoundments that optimizes use by the three groups of birds while respecting budget constraints. In this study, a decision support tool was developed for these annual management decisions.Within the decision framework, there are three different management objectives: shorebird-use days during fall and spring migrations, and waterfowl-use days during the nonbreeding season. Sixteen potential management actions were identified for impoundments; each action represents a combination of hydroperiod and vegetation manipulation. Example hydroperiods include semi-permanent and seasonal drawdowns, and vegetation manipulations include mechanical-chemical treatment, burning, disking, and no action. Expert elicitation was used to build a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model that predicts shorebird- and waterfowl-use days for each potential management action. The BBN was parameterized for a representative impoundment, MI-9, and predictions were re-scaled for this impoundment to predict outcomes at other impoundments on the basis of size. Parameter estimates in the BBN model can be updated using observations from ongoing monitoring that is part of the Integrated Waterbird Management and Monitoring (IWMM) program.The optimal portfolio of management actions depends on the importance, that is, weights, assigned to the three objectives, as well as the budget. Five scenarios with a variety of objective weights and budgets were developed. Given the large number of possible portfolios (1614), a heuristic genetic algorithm was used to identify a management action portfolio that maximized use-day objectives while respecting budget constraints. The genetic algorithm identified a portfolio of management actions for each of the five scenarios, enabling refuge staff to explore the sensitivity of their management decisions to objective weights and budget constraints.The decision framework developed here provides a transparent, defensible, and testable foundation for decision making at MNWR. The BBN model explicitly structures and parameterizes a mental model previously used by an expert to assign management actions to the impoundments. With ongoing IWMM monitoring, predictions from the model can be tested, and model parameters updated, to reflect empirical observations. This framework is intended to be a living document that can be updated to reflect changes in the decision context (for example, new objectives or constraints, or new models to compete with the current BBN model). Rather than a mandate to refuge staff, this framework is intended to be a decision support tool; tool outputs can become part of the deliberations of refuge staff when making difficult management decisions for multiple objectives.

Portfolio Optimization with Stochastic Dividends and Stochastic Volatility

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Varga, Katherine Yvonne

2015-01-01

We consider an optimal investment-consumption portfolio optimization model in which an investor receives stochastic dividends. As a first problem, we allow the drift of stock price to be a bounded function. Next, we consider a stochastic volatility model. In each problem, we use the dynamic programming method to derive the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman…

Authentic assessment based showcase portfolio on learning of mathematical problem solving in senior high school

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukmawati, Zuhairoh, Faihatuz

2017-05-01

The purpose of this research was to develop authentic assessment model based on showcase portfolio on learning of mathematical problem solving. This research used research and development Method (R & D) which consists of four stages of development that: Phase I, conducting a preliminary study. Phase II, determining the purpose of developing and preparing the initial model. Phase III, trial test of instrument for the initial draft model and the initial product. The respondents of this research are the students of SMAN 8 and SMAN 20 Makassar. The collection of data was through observation, interviews, documentation, student questionnaire, and instrument tests mathematical solving abilities. The data were analyzed with descriptive and inferential statistics. The results of this research are authentic assessment model design based on showcase portfolio which involves: 1) Steps in implementing the authentic assessment based Showcase, assessment rubric of cognitive aspects, assessment rubric of affective aspects, and assessment rubric of skill aspect. 2) The average ability of the students' problem solving which is scored by using authentic assessment based on showcase portfolio was in high category and the students' response in good category.

Developing evaluation instrument based on CIPP models on the implementation of portfolio assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kurnia, Feni; Rosana, Dadan; Supahar

2017-08-01

This study aimed to develop an evaluation instrument constructed by CIPP model on the implementation of portfolio assessment in science learning. This study used research and development (R & D) method; adapting 4-D by the development of non-test instrument, and the evaluation instrument constructed by CIPP model. CIPP is the abbreviation of Context, Input, Process, and Product. The techniques of data collection were interviews, questionnaires, and observations. Data collection instruments were: 1) the interview guidelines for the analysis of the problems and the needs, 2) questionnaire to see level of accomplishment of portfolio assessment instrument, and 3) observation sheets for teacher and student to dig up responses to the portfolio assessment instrument. The data obtained was quantitative data obtained from several validators. The validators consist of two lecturers as the evaluation experts, two practitioners (science teachers), and three colleagues. This paper shows the results of content validity obtained from the validators and the analysis result of the data obtained by using Aikens' V formula. The results of this study shows that the evaluation instrument based on CIPP models is proper to evaluate the implementation of portfolio assessment instruments. Based on the experts' judgments, practitioners, and colleagues, the Aikens' V coefficient was between 0.86-1,00 which means that it is valid and can be used in the limited trial and operational field trial.

A Qualitative Analysis of Narrative Preclerkship Assessment Data to Evaluate Teamwork Skills.

PubMed

Dolan, Brigid M; O'Brien, Celia Laird; Cameron, Kenzie A; Green, Marianne M

2018-04-16

Construct: Students entering the health professions require competency in teamwork. Although many teamwork curricula and assessments exist, studies have not demonstrated robust longitudinal assessment of preclerkship students' teamwork skills and attitudes. Assessment portfolios may serve to fill this gap, but it is unknown how narrative comments within portfolios describe student teamwork behaviors. We performed a qualitative analysis of narrative data in 15 assessment portfolios. Student portfolios were randomly selected from 3 groups stratified by quantitative ratings of teamwork performance gathered from small-group and clinical preceptor assessment forms. Narrative data included peer and faculty feedback from these same forms. Data were coded for teamwork-related behaviors using a constant comparative approach combined with an identification of the valence of the coded statements as either "positive observation" or "suggestion for improvement." Eight codes related to teamwork emerged: attitude and demeanor, information facilitation, leadership, preparation and dependability, professionalism, team orientation, values team member contributions, and nonspecific teamwork comments. The frequency of codes and valence varied across the 3 performance groups, with students in the low-performing group receiving more suggestions for improvement across all teamwork codes. Narrative data from assessment portfolios included specific descriptions of teamwork behavior, with important contributions provided by both faculty and peers. A variety of teamwork domains were represented. Such feedback as collected in an assessment portfolio can be used for longitudinal assessment of preclerkship student teamwork skills and attitudes.

Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) Model for Safety Technology Portfolio Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ancel, Ersin; Shih, Ann T.

2014-01-01

NASA's Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) develops and advances methodologies and technologies to improve air transportation safety. The Safety Analysis and Integration Team (SAIT) conducts a safety technology portfolio assessment (PA) to analyze the program content, to examine the benefits and risks of products with respect to program goals, and to support programmatic decision making. The PA process includes systematic identification of current and future safety risks as well as tracking several quantitative and qualitative metrics to ensure the program goals are addressing prominent safety risks accurately and effectively. One of the metrics within the PA process involves using quantitative aviation safety models to gauge the impact of the safety products. This paper demonstrates the role of aviation safety modeling by providing model outputs and evaluating a sample of portfolio elements using the Flightdeck Automation Problems (FLAP) model. The model enables not only ranking of the quantitative relative risk reduction impact of all portfolio elements, but also highlighting the areas with high potential impact via sensitivity and gap analyses in support of the program office. Although the model outputs are preliminary and products are notional, the process shown in this paper is essential to a comprehensive PA of NASA's safety products in the current program and future programs/projects.

An optimal consumption and investment problem with quadratic utility and negative wealth constraints.

PubMed

Roh, Kum-Hwan; Kim, Ji Yeoun; Shin, Yong Hyun

2017-01-01

In this paper, we investigate the optimal consumption and portfolio selection problem with negative wealth constraints for an economic agent who has a quadratic utility function of consumption and receives a constant labor income. Due to the property of the quadratic utility function, we separate our problem into two cases and derive the closed-form solutions for each case. We also illustrate some numerical implications of the optimal consumption and portfolio.

NREL Multiphysics Modeling Tools and ISC Device for Designing Safer Li-Ion Batteries

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pesaran, Ahmad A.; Yang, Chuanbo

2016-03-24

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory has developed a portfolio of multiphysics modeling tools to aid battery designers better understand the response of lithium ion batteries to abusive conditions. We will discuss this portfolio, which includes coupled electrical, thermal, chemical, electrochemical, and mechanical modeling. These models can simulate the response of a cell to overheating, overcharge, mechanical deformation, nail penetration, and internal short circuit. Cell-to-cell thermal propagation modeling will be discussed.

Optimal portfolio selection in a Lévy market with uncontrolled cash flow and only risky assets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, Yan; Li, Zhongfei; Wu, Huiling

2013-03-01

This article considers an investor who has an exogenous cash flow evolving according to a Lévy process and invests in a financial market consisting of only risky assets, whose prices are governed by exponential Lévy processes. Two continuous-time portfolio selection problems are studied for the investor. One is a benchmark problem, and the other is a mean-variance problem. The first problem is solved by adopting the stochastic dynamic programming approach, and the obtained results are extended to the second problem by employing the duality theory. Closed-form solutions of these two problems are derived. Some existing results are found to be special cases of our results.

The surgical learning and instructional portfolio: what residents at a single institution are learning.

PubMed

Webb, Travis P; Merkley, Taylor R

2011-03-01

The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) Learning Portfolio is recommended as a tool to develop and document reflective, practice-based learning and improvement. There is no consensus regarding the appropriate content of a learning portfolio in medical education. Studying lessons selected for inclusion in their learning portfolios by surgical trainees could help identify useful subject matter for this purpose. Each month, all residents in our surgery residency program submit entries into their individual Surgical Learning and Instructional Portfolio (SLIP). The SLIP entries from July 2008 to 2009 (n = 420) were deidentified and randomized using a random number generator. We conducted a thematic content analysis of 50 random portfolio entries to identify lessons learned. Two independent raters analyzed the "3 lessons learned" portion of the portfolio entries and identified themes and subthemes using the constant comparative method used in grounded theory. The collaborative coding process resulted in theme saturation after the identification of 7 themes and their subthemes. Themes in decreasing order of frequency included complications, disease epidemiology, disease presentation, surgical management of disease, medical management of disease, operative techniques, and pathophysiology. Junior residents chose to focus on a broad array of foundational topics including disease presentation, epidemiology, and overall management of diseases, whereas postgraduate year-4 (PGY-4) and PGY-5 residents most frequently chose to focus on complications as learning points. Lessons learned reflect perceived needs of the trainees based on training year. When given a template to follow, junior and senior residents choose to reflect on different subject matter to meet their learning goals.

The Surgical Learning and Instructional Portfolio: What Residents at a Single Institution Are Learning

PubMed Central

Webb, Travis P; Merkley, Taylor R

2011-01-01

Background The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) Learning Portfolio is recommended as a tool to develop and document reflective, practice-based learning and improvement. There is no consensus regarding the appropriate content of a learning portfolio in medical education. Studying lessons selected for inclusion in their learning portfolios by surgical trainees could help identify useful subject matter for this purpose. Methods Each month, all residents in our surgery residency program submit entries into their individual Surgical Learning and Instructional Portfolio (SLIP). The SLIP entries from July 2008 to 2009 (n = 420) were deidentified and randomized using a random number generator. We conducted a thematic content analysis of 50 random portfolio entries to identify lessons learned. Two independent raters analyzed the “3 lessons learned” portion of the portfolio entries and identified themes and subthemes using the constant comparative method used in grounded theory. Results The collaborative coding process resulted in theme saturation after the identification of 7 themes and their subthemes. Themes in decreasing order of frequency included complications, disease epidemiology, disease presentation, surgical management of disease, medical management of disease, operative techniques, and pathophysiology. Junior residents chose to focus on a broad array of foundational topics including disease presentation, epidemiology, and overall management of diseases, whereas postgraduate year-4 (PGY-4) and PGY-5 residents most frequently chose to focus on complications as learning points. Conclusions Lessons learned reflect perceived needs of the trainees based on training year. When given a template to follow, junior and senior residents choose to reflect on different subject matter to meet their learning goals. PMID:22379531

A Review of NCI’s Extramural Grant Portfolio: Identifying Opportunities for Future Research in Genes and Environment in Cancer

PubMed Central

Ghazarian, Armen A.; Simonds, Naoko I.; Bennett, Kelly; Pimentel, Camilla B.; Ellison, Gary L.; Gillanders, Elizabeth M.; Schully, Sheri D.; Mechanic, Leah E.

2013-01-01

Background Genetic and environmental factors jointly influence cancer risk. The National Institutes of Health (NIH) has made the study of gene-environment (GxE) interactions a research priority since the year 2000. Methods To assess the current status of GxE research in cancer, we analyzed the extramural grant portfolio of the National Cancer Institute (NCI) from Fiscal Years 2007 to 2009. Publications attributed to selected grants were also evaluated. Results From the 1,106 research grants identified in our portfolio analysis, a random sample of 450 grants (40%) was selected for data abstraction; of these, 147 (33%) were considered relevant. The most common cancer type was breast (20%, n=29), followed by lymphoproliferative (10%, n=14), colorectal (9%, n=13), melanoma/other skin (9%, n=13), and lung/upper aero-digestive tract (8%, n=12) cancers. The majority of grants were studies of candidate genes (68%, n=100) compared to genome-wide association studies (GWAS) (8%, n=12). Approximately one third studied environmental exposures categorized as energy balance (37%, n=54) or drugs/treatment (29%, n=43). From the 147 relevant grants, 108 publications classified as GxE or pharmacogenomic were identified. These publications were linked to 37 of the 147 grant applications (25%). Conclusion The findings from our portfolio analysis suggest that GxE studies are concentrated in specific areas. There is room for investments in other aspects of GxE research, including, but not limited to developing alternative approaches to exposure assessment, broadening the spectrum of cancer types investigated, and performing GxE within GWAS. Impact This portfolio analysis provides a cross-sectional review of NCI support for GxE research in cancer. PMID:23462918

A review of NCI's extramural grant portfolio: identifying opportunities for future research in genes and environment in cancer.

PubMed

Ghazarian, Armen A; Simonds, Naoko I; Bennett, Kelly; Pimentel, Camilla B; Ellison, Gary L; Gillanders, Elizabeth M; Schully, Sheri D; Mechanic, Leah E

2013-04-01

Genetic and environmental factors jointly influence cancer risk. The NIH has made the study of gene-environment (GxE) interactions a research priority since the year 2000. To assess the current status of GxE research in cancer, we analyzed the extramural grant portfolio of the National Cancer Institute (NCI) from Fiscal Years 2007 to 2009. Publications attributed to selected grants were also evaluated. From the 1,106 research grants identified in our portfolio analysis, a random sample of 450 grants (40%) was selected for data abstraction; of these, 147 (33%) were considered relevant. The most common cancer type was breast (20%, n = 29), followed by lymphoproliferative (10%, n = 14), colorectal (9%, n = 13), melanoma/other skin (9%, n = 13), and lung/upper aerodigestive tract (8%, n = 12) cancers. The majority of grants were studies of candidate genes (68%, n = 100) compared with genome-wide association studies (GWAS) (8%, n = 12). Approximately one-third studied environmental exposures categorized as energy balance (37%, n = 54) or drugs/treatment (29%, n = 43). From the 147 relevant grants, 108 publications classified as GxE or pharmacogenomic were identified. These publications were linked to 37 of the 147 grant applications (25%). The findings from our portfolio analysis suggest that GxE studies are concentrated in specific areas. There is room for investments in other aspects of GxE research, including, but not limited to developing alternative approaches to exposure assessment, broadening the spectrum of cancer types investigated, and conducting GxE within GWAS. This portfolio analysis provides a cross-sectional review of NCI support for GxE research in cancer.

The difference between LSMC and replicating portfolio in insurance liability modeling.

PubMed

Pelsser, Antoon; Schweizer, Janina

2016-01-01

Solvency II requires insurers to calculate the 1-year value at risk of their balance sheet. This involves the valuation of the balance sheet in 1 year's time. As for insurance liabilities, closed-form solutions to their value are generally not available, insurers turn to estimation procedures. While pure Monte Carlo simulation set-ups are theoretically sound, they are often infeasible in practice. Therefore, approximation methods are exploited. Among these, least squares Monte Carlo (LSMC) and portfolio replication are prominent and widely applied in practice. In this paper, we show that, while both are variants of regression-based Monte Carlo methods, they differ in one significant aspect. While the replicating portfolio approach only contains an approximation error, which converges to zero in the limit, in LSMC a projection error is additionally present, which cannot be eliminated. It is revealed that the replicating portfolio technique enjoys numerous advantages and is therefore an attractive model choice.

An e-Portfolio-Based Model for the Application and Sharing of College English ESP MOOCs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Jinshi

2017-01-01

The informationalized knowledge sharing of MOOCs not only promotes the change of teaching concept and the reform of teaching methodology, but also provides a new opportunity for the teaching resource integration and sharing between different universities. The present study has constructed an e-Portfolio-based model for the application and sharing…

A predictive modeling approach to increasing the economic effectiveness of disease management programs.

PubMed

Bayerstadler, Andreas; Benstetter, Franz; Heumann, Christian; Winter, Fabian

2014-09-01

Predictive Modeling (PM) techniques are gaining importance in the worldwide health insurance business. Modern PM methods are used for customer relationship management, risk evaluation or medical management. This article illustrates a PM approach that enables the economic potential of (cost-) effective disease management programs (DMPs) to be fully exploited by optimized candidate selection as an example of successful data-driven business management. The approach is based on a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) that is easy to apply for health insurance companies. By means of a small portfolio from an emerging country, we show that our GLM approach is stable compared to more sophisticated regression techniques in spite of the difficult data environment. Additionally, we demonstrate for this example of a setting that our model can compete with the expensive solutions offered by professional PM vendors and outperforms non-predictive standard approaches for DMP selection commonly used in the market.

Adding MUFA to a dietary portfolio of cholesterol-lowering foods reduces apoAI fractional catabolic rate in subjects with dyslipidaemia.

PubMed

Labonté, Marie-Ève; Jenkins, David J A; Lewis, Gary F; Chiavaroli, Laura; Wong, Julia M W; Kendall, Cyril W C; Hogue, Jean-Charles; Couture, Patrick; Lamarche, Benoît

2013-08-28

The present randomised parallel study assessed the impact of adding MUFA to a dietary portfolio of cholesterol-lowering foods on the intravascular kinetics of apoAI- and apoB-containing lipoproteins in subjects with dyslipidaemia. A sample of sixteen men and postmenopausal women consumed a run-in stabilisation diet for 4 weeks. Subjects were then randomly assigned to an experimental dietary portfolio either high or low in MUFA for another 4 weeks. MUFA substituted 13·0% of total energy from carbohydrate (CHO) in the high-MUFA dietary portfolio. Lipoprotein kinetics were assessed after the run-in and portfolio diets using a primed, constant infusion of [2H3]leucine and multicompartmental modelling. The high-MUFA dietary portfolio resulted in higher apoAI pool size (PS) compared with the low-MUFA dietary portfolio (15·9% between-diet difference, P¼0·03). This difference appeared to be mainly attributable to a reduction in apoAI fractional catabolic rate (FCR) after the high-MUFA diet (25·6%, P¼0·02 v. pre-diet values), with no significant change in production rate. The high-MUFA dietary portfolio tended to reduce LDL apoB100 PS compared with the low-MUFA dietary portfolio (228·5% between-diet that adding MUFA to a dietary portfolio of cholesterol-lowering foods provides the added advantage of raising HDL primarily through a reduction in HDL clearance rate. Replacing CHO with MUFA in a dietary portfolio may also lead to reductions in LDL apoB100 concentrations primarily by increasing LDL clearance rate, thus potentiating further the well-known cholesterol-lowering effect of this diet.

Portfolio choice in retirement: Health risk and the demand for annuities, housing, and risky assets*

PubMed Central

Yogo, Motohiro

2016-01-01

In a life-cycle model, a retiree faces stochastic health depreciation and chooses consumption, health expenditure, and the allocation of wealth between bonds, stocks, and housing. The model explains key facts about asset allocation and health expenditure across health status and age. The portfolio share in stocks is low overall and is positively related to health, especially for younger retirees. The portfolio share in housing is negatively related to health for younger retirees and falls significantly in age. Finally, out-of-pocket health expenditure as a share of income is negatively related to health and rises in age. PMID:27766005

Portfolio choice in retirement: Health risk and the demand for annuities, housing, and risky assets.

PubMed

Yogo, Motohiro

2016-06-01

In a life-cycle model, a retiree faces stochastic health depreciation and chooses consumption, health expenditure, and the allocation of wealth between bonds, stocks, and housing. The model explains key facts about asset allocation and health expenditure across health status and age. The portfolio share in stocks is low overall and is positively related to health, especially for younger retirees. The portfolio share in housing is negatively related to health for younger retirees and falls significantly in age. Finally, out-of-pocket health expenditure as a share of income is negatively related to health and rises in age.

Data Mining for Financial Applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovalerchuk, Boris; Vityaev, Evgenii

This chapter describes Data Mining in finance by discussing financial tasks, specifics of methodologies and techniques in this Data Mining area. It includes time dependence, data selection, forecast horizon, measures of success, quality of patterns, hypothesis evaluation, problem ID, method profile, attribute-based and relational methodologies. The second part of the chapter discusses Data Mining models and practice in finance. It covers use of neural networks in portfolio management, design of interpretable trading rules and discovering money laundering schemes using decision rules and relational Data Mining methodology.

The Point of No Return? Interest Groups, School Board Elections and the Sustainment of the Portfolio Management Model in Post-Katrina New Orleans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Welsh, Richard; Hall, Michelle

2018-01-01

Context: Given the growing popularity of the portfolio management model (PMM) as a method of improving education, it is important to examine how these market-based reforms are sustained over time and how the politics of sustaining this model have substantial policy implications. Purpose of Study: The purpose of this article is to examine important…

Adding flexibility to the search for robust portfolios in non-linear water resource planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tomlinson, James; Harou, Julien

2017-04-01

To date robust optimisation of water supply systems has sought to find portfolios or strategies that are robust to a range of uncertainties or scenarios. The search for a single portfolio that is robust in all scenarios is necessarily suboptimal compared to portfolios optimised for a single scenario deterministic future. By contrast establishing a separate portfolio for each future scenario is unhelpful to the planner who must make a single decision today under deep uncertainty. In this work we show that a middle ground is possible by allowing a small number of different portfolios to be found that are each robust to a different subset of the global scenarios. We use evolutionary algorithms and a simple water resource system model to demonstrate this approach. The primary contribution is to demonstrate that flexibility can be added to the search for portfolios, in complex non-linear systems, at the expense of complete robustness across all future scenarios. In this context we define flexibility as the ability to design a portfolio in which some decisions are delayed, but those decisions that are not delayed are themselves shown to be robust to the future. We recognise that some decisions in our portfolio are more important than others. An adaptive portfolio is found by allowing no flexibility for these near-term "important" decisions, but maintaining flexibility in the remaining longer term decisions. In this sense we create an effective 2-stage decision process for a non-linear water resource supply system. We show how this reduces a measure of regret versus the inflexible robust solution for the same system.

Model Checking with Multi-Threaded IC3 Portfolios

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-15

different runs varies randomly depending on the thread interleaving. The use of a portfolio of solvers to maximize the likelihood of a quick solution is...empirically show (cf. Sec. 5.2) that the predictions based on this formula have high accuracy. Note that each solver in the portfolio potentially searches...speedup of over 300. We also show that widening the proof search of ic3 by randomizing its SAT solver is not as effective as paral- lelization

Investigation of Multi-Criteria Decision Consistency: A Triplex Approach to Optimal Oilfield Portfolio Investment Decisions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qaradaghi, Mohammed

Complexity of the capital intensive oil and gas portfolio investments is continuously growing. It is manifested in the constant increase in the type, number and degree of risks and uncertainties, which consequently lead to more challenging decision making problems. A typical complex decision making problem in petroleum exploration and production (E&P) is the selection and prioritization of oilfields/projects in a portfolio investment. Prioritizing oilfields maybe required for different purposes, including the achievement of a targeted production and allocation of limited available development resources. These resources cannot be distributed evenly nor can they be allocated based on the oilfield size or production capacity alone since various other factors need to be considered simultaneously. These factors may include subsurface complexity, size of reservoir, plateau production and needed infrastructure in addition to other issues of strategic concern, such as socio-economic, environmental and fiscal policies, particularly when the decision making involves governments or national oil companies. Therefore, it would be imperative to employ decision aiding tools that not only address these factors, but also incorporate the decision makers' preferences clearly and accurately. However, the tools commonly used in project portfolio selection and optimization, including intuitive approaches, vary in their focus and strength in addressing the different criteria involved in such decision problems. They are also disadvantaged by a number of drawbacks, which may include lacking the capacity to address multiple and interrelated criteria, uncertainty and risk, project relationship with regard to value contribution and optimum resource utilization, non-monetary attributes, decision maker's knowledge and expertise, in addition to varying levels of ease of use and other practical and theoretical drawbacks. These drawbacks have motivated researchers to investigate other tools and techniques that can provide more flexibility and inclusiveness in the decision making process, such as Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods. However, it can be observed that the MCDM literature: 1) is primarily focused on suggesting certain MCDM techniques to specific problems without providing sufficient evidence for their selection, 2) is inadequate in addressing MCDM in E&P portfolio selection and prioritization compared with other fields, and 3) does not address prioritizing brownfields (i.e., developed oilfields). This research study aims at addressing the above drawbacks through combining three MCDM methods (i.e., AHP, PROMETHEE and TOPSIS) into a single decision making tool that can support optimal oilfield portfolio investment decisions by helping determine the share of each oilfield of the total development resources allocated. Selecting these methods is reinforced by a pre-deployment and post-deployment validation framework. In addition, this study proposes a two-dimensional consistency test to verify the output coherence or prioritization stability of the MCDM methods in comparison with an intuitive approach. Nine scenarios representing all possible outcomes of the internal and external consistency tests are further proposed to reach a conclusion. The methodology is applied to a case study of six major oilfields in Iraq to generate percentage shares of each oilfield of a total production target that is in line with Iraq's aspiration to increase oil production. However, the methodology is intended to be applicable to other E&P portfolio investment prioritization scenarios by taking the specific contextual characteristics into consideration.

Averting HIV Infections in New York City: A Modeling Approach Estimating the Future Impact of Additional Behavioral and Biomedical HIV Prevention Strategies

PubMed Central

Kessler, Jason; Myers, Julie E.; Nucifora, Kimberly A.; Mensah, Nana; Kowalski, Alexis; Sweeney, Monica; Toohey, Christopher; Khademi, Amin; Shepard, Colin; Cutler, Blayne; Braithwaite, R. Scott

2013-01-01

Background New York City (NYC) remains an epicenter of the HIV epidemic in the United States. Given the variety of evidence-based HIV prevention strategies available and the significant resources required to implement each of them, comparative studies are needed to identify how to maximize the number of HIV cases prevented most economically. Methods A new model of HIV disease transmission was developed integrating information from a previously validated micro-simulation HIV disease progression model. Specification and parameterization of the model and its inputs, including the intervention portfolio, intervention effects and costs were conducted through a collaborative process between the academic modeling team and the NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. The model projects the impact of different prevention strategies, or portfolios of prevention strategies, on the HIV epidemic in NYC. Results Ten unique interventions were able to provide a prevention benefit at an annual program cost of less than $360,000, the threshold for consideration as a cost-saving intervention (because of offsets by future HIV treatment costs averted). An optimized portfolio of these specific interventions could result in up to a 34% reduction in new HIV infections over the next 20 years. The cost-per-infection averted of the portfolio was estimated to be $106,378; the total cost was in excess of $2 billion (over the 20 year period, or approximately $100 million per year, on average). The cost-savings of prevented infections was estimated at more than $5 billion (or approximately $250 million per year, on average). Conclusions Optimal implementation of a portfolio of evidence-based interventions can have a substantial, favorable impact on the ongoing HIV epidemic in NYC and provide future cost-saving despite significant initial costs. PMID:24058465

45 CFR 2522.415 - How does the grant selection process work?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... NATIONAL AND COMMUNITY SERVICE AMERICORPS PARTICIPANTS, PROGRAMS, AND APPLICANTS Selection of AmeriCorps... Notice of Funding Availability; and (d) Ensuring innovation and geographic, demographic, and programmatic diversity across the Corporation's national AmeriCorps portfolio. [70 FR 39600, July 8, 2005] ...

45 CFR 2522.415 - How does the grant selection process work?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... NATIONAL AND COMMUNITY SERVICE AMERICORPS PARTICIPANTS, PROGRAMS, AND APPLICANTS Selection of AmeriCorps... Notice of Funding Availability; and (d) Ensuring innovation and geographic, demographic, and programmatic diversity across the Corporation's national AmeriCorps portfolio. [70 FR 39600, July 8, 2005] ...

45 CFR 2522.415 - How does the grant selection process work?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... NATIONAL AND COMMUNITY SERVICE AMERICORPS PARTICIPANTS, PROGRAMS, AND APPLICANTS Selection of AmeriCorps... Notice of Funding Availability; and (d) Ensuring innovation and geographic, demographic, and programmatic diversity across the Corporation's national AmeriCorps portfolio. [70 FR 39600, July 8, 2005] ...

45 CFR 2522.415 - How does the grant selection process work?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... NATIONAL AND COMMUNITY SERVICE AMERICORPS PARTICIPANTS, PROGRAMS, AND APPLICANTS Selection of AmeriCorps... Notice of Funding Availability; and (d) Ensuring innovation and geographic, demographic, and programmatic diversity across the Corporation's national AmeriCorps portfolio. [70 FR 39600, July 8, 2005] ...

Does health affect portfolio choice?

PubMed

Love, David A; Smith, Paul A

2010-12-01

A number of recent studies find that poor health is empirically associated with a safer portfolio allocation. It is difficult to say, however, whether this relationship is truly causal. Both health status and portfolio choice are influenced by unobserved characteristics such as risk attitudes, impatience, information, and motivation, and these unobserved factors, if not adequately controlled for, can induce significant bias in the estimates of asset demand equations. Using the 1992-2006 waves of the Health and Retirement Study, we investigate how much of the connection between health and portfolio choice is causal and how much is due to the effects of unobserved heterogeneity. Accounting for unobserved heterogeneity with fixed effects and correlated random effects models, we find that health does not appear to significantly affect portfolio choice among single households. For married households, we find a small effect (about 2-3 percentage points) from being in the lowest of five self-reported health categories. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Stock Portfolio Structure of Individual Investors Infers Future Trading Behavior

PubMed Central

Bohlin, Ludvig; Rosvall, Martin

2014-01-01

Although the understanding of and motivation behind individual trading behavior is an important puzzle in finance, little is known about the connection between an investor's portfolio structure and her trading behavior in practice. In this paper, we investigate the relation between what stocks investors hold, and what stocks they buy, and show that investors with similar portfolio structures to a great extent trade in a similar way. With data from the central register of shareholdings in Sweden, we model the market in a similarity network, by considering investors as nodes, connected with links representing portfolio similarity. From the network, we find investor groups that not only identify different investment strategies, but also represent individual investors trading in a similar way. These findings suggest that the stock portfolios of investors hold meaningful information, which could be used to earn a better understanding of stock market dynamics. PMID:25068302

Stock portfolio structure of individual investors infers future trading behavior.

PubMed

Bohlin, Ludvig; Rosvall, Martin

2014-01-01

Although the understanding of and motivation behind individual trading behavior is an important puzzle in finance, little is known about the connection between an investor's portfolio structure and her trading behavior in practice. In this paper, we investigate the relation between what stocks investors hold, and what stocks they buy, and show that investors with similar portfolio structures to a great extent trade in a similar way. With data from the central register of shareholdings in Sweden, we model the market in a similarity network, by considering investors as nodes, connected with links representing portfolio similarity. From the network, we find investor groups that not only identify different investment strategies, but also represent individual investors trading in a similar way. These findings suggest that the stock portfolios of investors hold meaningful information, which could be used to earn a better understanding of stock market dynamics.

Automatic Trading Agent. RMT Based Portfolio Theory and Portfolio Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snarska, M.; Krzych, J.

2006-11-01

Portfolio theory is a very powerful tool in the modern investment theory. It is helpful in estimating risk of an investor's portfolio, arosen from lack of information, uncertainty and incomplete knowledge of reality, which forbids a perfect prediction of future price changes. Despite of many advantages this tool is not known and not widely used among investors on Warsaw Stock Exchange. The main reason for abandoning this method is a high level of complexity and immense calculations. The aim of this paper is to introduce an automatic decision-making system, which allows a single investor to use complex methods of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT). The key tool in MPT is an analysis of an empirical covariance matrix. This matrix, obtained from historical data, biased by such a high amount of statistical uncertainty, that it can be seen as random. By bringing into practice the ideas of Random Matrix Theory (RMT), the noise is removed or significantly reduced, so the future risk and return are better estimated and controlled. These concepts are applied to the Warsaw Stock Exchange Simulator {http://gra.onet.pl}. The result of the simulation is 18% level of gains in comparison with respective 10% loss of the Warsaw Stock Exchange main index WIG.

Portfolio optimization using fuzzy linear programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pandit, Purnima K.

2013-09-01

Portfolio Optimization (PO) is a problem in Finance, in which investor tries to maximize return and minimize risk by carefully choosing different assets. Expected return and risk are the most important parameters with regard to optimal portfolios. In the simple form PO can be modeled as quadratic programming problem which can be put into equivalent linear form. PO problems with the fuzzy parameters can be solved as multi-objective fuzzy linear programming problem. In this paper we give the solution to such problems with an illustrative example.

Linearly Adjustable International Portfolios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fonseca, R. J.; Kuhn, D.; Rustem, B.

2010-09-01

We present an approach to multi-stage international portfolio optimization based on the imposition of a linear structure on the recourse decisions. Multiperiod decision problems are traditionally formulated as stochastic programs. Scenario tree based solutions however can become intractable as the number of stages increases. By restricting the space of decision policies to linear rules, we obtain a conservative tractable approximation to the original problem. Local asset prices and foreign exchange rates are modelled separately, which allows for a direct measure of their impact on the final portfolio value.

Integration of a Portfolio-based Approach to Evaluate Aerospace R and D Problem Formulation Into a Parametric Synthesis Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oza, Amit R.

The focus of this study is to improve R&D effectiveness towards aerospace and defense planning in the early stages of the product development lifecycle. Emphasis is on: correct formulation of a decision problem, with special attention to account for data relationships between the individual design problem and the system capability required to size the aircraft, understanding of the meaning of the acquisition strategy objective and subjective data requirements that are required to arrive at a balanced analysis and/or "correct" mix of technology projects, understanding the meaning of the outputs that can be created from the technology analysis, and methods the researcher can use at effectively support decisions at the acquisition and conceptual design levels through utilization of a research and development portfolio strategy. The primary objectives of this study are to: (1) determine what strategy should be used to initialize conceptual design parametric sizing processes during requirements analysis for the materiel solution analysis stage of the product development lifecycle when utilizing data already constructed in the latter phase when working with a generic database management system synthesis tool integration architecture for aircraft design , and (2) assess how these new data relationships can contribute for innovative decision-making when solving acquisition hardware/technology portfolio problems. As such, an automated composable problem formulation system is developed to consider data interactions for the system architecture that manages acquisition pre-design concept refinement portfolio management, and conceptual design parametric sizing requirements. The research includes a way to: • Formalize the data storage and implement the data relationship structure with a system architecture automated through a database management system. • Allow for composable modeling, in terms of level of hardware abstraction, for the product model, mission model, and operational constraint model data blocks in the pre-design stages. • Allow the product model, mission model, and operational constraint model to be cross referenced with a generic aircraft synthesis capability to identify disciplinary analysis methods and processes. • Allow for matching, comparison, and balancing of the aircraft hardware portfolio to the associated developmental and technology risk metrics. • Allow for visualization technology portfolio decision space. The problem formulation architecture is finally implemented and verified for a generic hypersonic vehicle research demonstrator where a portfolio of technology hardware are measured for developmental and technology risks, prioritized by the researcher risk constraints, and the data generated delivered to a novel aircraft synthesis tool to confirm vehicle feasibility.

Level shift two-components autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity modelling for WTI crude oil market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sin, Kuek Jia; Cheong, Chin Wen; Hooi, Tan Siow

2017-04-01

This study aims to investigate the crude oil volatility using a two components autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH) model with the inclusion of abrupt jump feature. The model is able to capture abrupt jumps, news impact, clustering volatility, long persistence volatility and heavy-tailed distributed error which are commonly observed in the crude oil time series. For the empirical study, we have selected the WTI crude oil index from year 2000 to 2016. The results found that by including the multiple-abrupt jumps in ARCH model, there are significant improvements of estimation evaluations as compared with the standard ARCH models. The outcomes of this study can provide useful information for risk management and portfolio analysis in the crude oil markets.

Evaluating options for balancing the water-electricity nexus in California: Part 2--greenhouse gas and renewable energy utilization impacts.

PubMed

Tarroja, Brian; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sobhani, Reza; Feldman, David; Jiang, Sunny; Samuelsen, Scott

2014-11-01

A study was conducted to compare the technical potential and effectiveness of different water supply options for securing water availability in a large-scale, interconnected water supply system under historical and climate-change augmented inflow and demand conditions. Part 2 of the study focused on determining the greenhouse gas and renewable energy utilization impacts of different pathways to stabilize major surface reservoir levels. Using a detailed electric grid model and taking into account impacts on the operation of the water supply infrastructure, the greenhouse gas emissions and effect on overall grid renewable penetration level was calculated for each water supply option portfolio that successfully secured water availability from Part 1. The effects on the energy signature of water supply infrastructure were found to be just as important as that of the fundamental processes for each option. Under historical (baseline) conditions, many option portfolios were capable of securing surface reservoir levels with a net neutral or negative effect on emissions and a benefit for renewable energy utilization. Under climate change augmented conditions, however, careful selection of the water supply option portfolio was required to prevent imposing major emissions increases for the system. Overall, this analysis provided quantitative insight into the tradeoffs associated with choosing different pathways for securing California's water supply. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Roy's safety-first portfolio principle in financial risk management of disastrous events.

PubMed

Chiu, Mei Choi; Wong, Hoi Ying; Li, Duan

2012-11-01

Roy pioneers the concept and practice of risk management of disastrous events via his safety-first principle for portfolio selection. More specifically, his safety-first principle advocates an optimal portfolio strategy generated from minimizing the disaster probability, while subject to the budget constraint and the mean constraint that the expected final wealth is not less than a preselected disaster level. This article studies the dynamic safety-first principle in continuous time and its application in asset and liability management. We reveal that the distortion resulting from dropping the mean constraint, as a common practice to approximate the original Roy's setting, either leads to a trivial case or changes the problem nature completely to a target-reaching problem, which produces a highly leveraged trading strategy. Recognizing the ill-posed nature of the corresponding Lagrangian method when retaining the mean constraint, we invoke a wisdom observed from a limited funding-level regulation of pension funds and modify the original safety-first formulation accordingly by imposing an upper bound on the funding level. This model revision enables us to solve completely the safety-first asset-liability problem by a martingale approach and to derive an optimal policy that follows faithfully the spirit of the safety-first principle and demonstrates a prominent nature of fighting for the best and preventing disaster from happening. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

More efficient optimization of long-term water supply portfolios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kirsch, Brian R.; Characklis, Gregory W.; Dillard, Karen E. M.; Kelley, C. T.

2009-03-01

The use of temporary transfers, such as options and leases, has grown as utilities attempt to meet increases in demand while reducing dependence on the expansion of costly infrastructure capacity (e.g., reservoirs). Earlier work has been done to construct optimal portfolios comprising firm capacity and transfers, using decision rules that determine the timing and volume of transfers. However, such work has only focused on the short-term (e.g., 1-year scenarios), which limits the utility of these planning efforts. Developing multiyear portfolios can lead to the exploration of a wider range of alternatives but also increases the computational burden. This work utilizes a coupled hydrologic-economic model to simulate the long-term performance of a city's water supply portfolio. This stochastic model is linked with an optimization search algorithm that is designed to handle the high-frequency, low-amplitude noise inherent in many simulations, particularly those involving expected values. This noise is detrimental to the accuracy and precision of the optimized solution and has traditionally been controlled by investing greater computational effort in the simulation. However, the increased computational effort can be substantial. This work describes the integration of a variance reduction technique (control variate method) within the simulation/optimization as a means of more efficiently identifying minimum cost portfolios. Random variation in model output (i.e., noise) is moderated using knowledge of random variations in stochastic input variables (e.g., reservoir inflows, demand), thereby reducing the computing time by 50% or more. Using these efficiency gains, water supply portfolios are evaluated over a 10-year period in order to assess their ability to reduce costs and adapt to demand growth, while still meeting reliability goals. As a part of the evaluation, several multiyear option contract structures are explored and compared.

Effects of correlations and fees in random multiplicative environments: Implications for portfolio management.

PubMed

Alper, Ofer; Somekh-Baruch, Anelia; Pirvandy, Oz; Schaps, Malka; Yaari, Gur

2017-08-01

Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is frequently used to model price dynamics of financial assets, and a weighted average of multiple GBMs is commonly used to model a financial portfolio. Diversified portfolios can lead to an increased exponential growth compared to a single asset by effectively reducing the effective noise. The sum of GBM processes is no longer a log-normal process and has a complex statistical properties. The nonergodicity of the weighted average process results in constant degradation of the exponential growth from the ensemble average toward the time average. One way to stay closer to the ensemble average is to maintain a balanced portfolio: keep the relative weights of the different assets constant over time. To keep these proportions constant, whenever assets values change, it is necessary to rebalance their relative weights, exposing this strategy to fees (transaction costs). Two strategies that were suggested in the past for cases that involve fees are rebalance the portfolio periodically and rebalance it in a partial way. In this paper, we study these two strategies in the presence of correlations and fees. We show that using periodic and partial rebalance strategies, it is possible to maintain a steady exponential growth while minimizing the losses due to fees. We also demonstrate how these redistribution strategies perform in a phenomenal way on real-world market data, despite the fact that not all assumptions of the model hold in these real-world systems. Our results have important implications for stochastic dynamics in general and to portfolio management in particular, as we show that there is a superior alternative to the common buy-and-hold strategy, even in the presence of correlations and fees.

Effects of correlations and fees in random multiplicative environments: Implications for portfolio management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alper, Ofer; Somekh-Baruch, Anelia; Pirvandy, Oz; Schaps, Malka; Yaari, Gur

2017-08-01

Geometric Brownian motion (GBM) is frequently used to model price dynamics of financial assets, and a weighted average of multiple GBMs is commonly used to model a financial portfolio. Diversified portfolios can lead to an increased exponential growth compared to a single asset by effectively reducing the effective noise. The sum of GBM processes is no longer a log-normal process and has a complex statistical properties. The nonergodicity of the weighted average process results in constant degradation of the exponential growth from the ensemble average toward the time average. One way to stay closer to the ensemble average is to maintain a balanced portfolio: keep the relative weights of the different assets constant over time. To keep these proportions constant, whenever assets values change, it is necessary to rebalance their relative weights, exposing this strategy to fees (transaction costs). Two strategies that were suggested in the past for cases that involve fees are rebalance the portfolio periodically and rebalance it in a partial way. In this paper, we study these two strategies in the presence of correlations and fees. We show that using periodic and partial rebalance strategies, it is possible to maintain a steady exponential growth while minimizing the losses due to fees. We also demonstrate how these redistribution strategies perform in a phenomenal way on real-world market data, despite the fact that not all assumptions of the model hold in these real-world systems. Our results have important implications for stochastic dynamics in general and to portfolio management in particular, as we show that there is a superior alternative to the common buy-and-hold strategy, even in the presence of correlations and fees.

Measuring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall of crude oil portfolio using extreme value theory and vine copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Wenhua; Yang, Kun; Wei, Yu; Lei, Likun

2018-01-01

Volatilities of crude oil price have important impacts on the steady and sustainable development of world real economy. Thus it is of great academic and practical significance to model and measure the volatility and risk of crude oil markets accurately. This paper aims to measure the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of a portfolio consists of four crude oil assets by using GARCH-type models, extreme value theory (EVT) and vine copulas. The backtesting results show that the combination of GARCH-type-EVT models and vine copula methods can produce accurate risk measures of the oil portfolio. Mixed R-vine copula is more flexible and superior to other vine copulas. Different GARCH-type models, which can depict the long-memory and/or leverage effect of oil price volatilities, however offer similar marginal distributions of the oil returns.

Power Grid Construction Project Portfolio Optimization Based on Bi-level programming model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Erdong; Li, Shangqi

2017-08-01

As the main body of power grid operation, county-level power supply enterprises undertake an important emission to guarantee the security of power grid operation and safeguard social power using order. The optimization of grid construction projects has been a key issue of power supply capacity and service level of grid enterprises. According to the actual situation of power grid construction project optimization of county-level power enterprises, on the basis of qualitative analysis of the projects, this paper builds a Bi-level programming model based on quantitative analysis. The upper layer of the model is the target restriction of the optimal portfolio; the lower layer of the model is enterprises’ financial restrictions on the size of the enterprise project portfolio. Finally, using a real example to illustrate operation proceeding and the optimization result of the model. Through qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis, the bi-level programming model improves the accuracy and normative standardization of power grid enterprises projects.

[Reflective portfolio: a proposal for teaching and learning geared on competencies].

PubMed

Cotta, Rosângela Minardi Mitre; da Costa, Glauce Dias; Mendonça, Erica Toledo

2013-06-01

This article seeks to analyze the experience of collective construction of portfolios as a teaching-learning method in the discipline of Health Policy, identifying the competencies developed by students. Qualitative research, whose collection and data processing were conducted by means of documental and thematic analysis of 34 portfolios. The "Learning to be" and "Learning to live and work together" competencies were considered according to the proposals of the UNESCO report for Education. The training of critical-reflexive individuals, provided by the portfolio, was particularly observed when students reported the transformation of the negative views that they had about the health care system - an inefficient and precarious policy - to a positive vision - policy which deals with the principles of equity, integrity and universality. This process of critical transformation is the result of the practice and use of communication skills, information management (search, selection, analysis and evaluation of information), leadership, cooperation and human relationships (teamwork, ethics and recognition of diversity), and personal competencies (time management, responsibility and planning), namely important skills in the training of professionals committed to the national health policy.

An integrated portfolio optimisation procedure based on data envelopment analysis, artificial bee colony algorithm and genetic programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Chih-Ming

2014-12-01

Portfolio optimisation is an important issue in the field of investment/financial decision-making and has received considerable attention from both researchers and practitioners. However, besides portfolio optimisation, a complete investment procedure should also include the selection of profitable investment targets and determine the optimal timing for buying/selling the investment targets. In this study, an integrated procedure using data envelopment analysis (DEA), artificial bee colony (ABC) and genetic programming (GP) is proposed to resolve a portfolio optimisation problem. The proposed procedure is evaluated through a case study on investing in stocks in the semiconductor sub-section of the Taiwan stock market for 4 years. The potential average 6-month return on investment of 9.31% from 1 November 2007 to 31 October 2011 indicates that the proposed procedure can be considered a feasible and effective tool for making outstanding investment plans, and thus making profits in the Taiwan stock market. Moreover, it is a strategy that can help investors to make profits even when the overall stock market suffers a loss.

The role of CSP in the electricity system of South Africa - technical operation, grid constraints, market structure and economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kost, Christoph; Friebertshäuser, Chris; Hartmann, Niklas; Fluri, Thomas; Nitz, Peter

2017-06-01

This paper analyses the role of solar technologies (CSP and PV) and their interaction in the South African electricity system by using a fundamental electricity system modelling (ENTIGRIS-SouthAfrica). The model is used to analyse the South African long-term electricity generation portfolio mix, optimized site selection and required transmission capacities until the year 2050. Hereby especially the location and grid integration of solar technology (PV and CSP) and wind power plants is analysed. This analysis is carried out by using detailed resource assessment of both technologies. A cluster approach is presented to reduce complexity by integrating the data in an optimization model.

Assessing the Development of Medical Students’ Personal and Professional Skills by Portfolio

PubMed Central

Yielder, Jill; Moir, Fiona

2016-01-01

The introduction of a new domain of learning for Personal and Professional Skills in the medical program at the University of Auckland in New Zealand has involved the compilation of a portfolio for assessment. This departure from the traditional assessment methods predominantly used in the past has been challenging to design, introduce, and maintain as a relevant and authentic assessment method. We present the portfolio format along with the process for its introduction and appraise the challenges, strengths, and limitations of the approach within the context of the current literature. We then outline a cyclical model of evaluation used to monitor and fine-tune the portfolio tasks and implementation process, in response to student and assessor feedback. The portfolios have illustrated the level of insight, maturity, and synthesis of personal and professional qualities that students are capable of achieving. The Auckland medical program strives to foster these qualities in its students, and the portfolio provides an opportunity for students to demonstrate their reflective abilities. Moreover, the creation of a Personal and Professional Skills domain with the portfolio as its key assessment emphasizes the importance of reflective practice and personal and professional development and gives a clear message that these are fundamental longitudinal elements of the program. PMID:29349315

Assessing the Development of Medical Students' Personal and Professional Skills by Portfolio.

PubMed

Yielder, Jill; Moir, Fiona

2016-01-01

The introduction of a new domain of learning for Personal and Professional Skills in the medical program at the University of Auckland in New Zealand has involved the compilation of a portfolio for assessment. This departure from the traditional assessment methods predominantly used in the past has been challenging to design, introduce, and maintain as a relevant and authentic assessment method. We present the portfolio format along with the process for its introduction and appraise the challenges, strengths, and limitations of the approach within the context of the current literature. We then outline a cyclical model of evaluation used to monitor and fine-tune the portfolio tasks and implementation process, in response to student and assessor feedback. The portfolios have illustrated the level of insight, maturity, and synthesis of personal and professional qualities that students are capable of achieving. The Auckland medical program strives to foster these qualities in its students, and the portfolio provides an opportunity for students to demonstrate their reflective abilities. Moreover, the creation of a Personal and Professional Skills domain with the portfolio as its key assessment emphasizes the importance of reflective practice and personal and professional development and gives a clear message that these are fundamental longitudinal elements of the program.

Divergent estimation error in portfolio optimization and in linear regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kondor, I.; Varga-Haszonits, I.

2008-08-01

The problem of estimation error in portfolio optimization is discussed, in the limit where the portfolio size N and the sample size T go to infinity such that their ratio is fixed. The estimation error strongly depends on the ratio N/T and diverges for a critical value of this parameter. This divergence is the manifestation of an algorithmic phase transition, it is accompanied by a number of critical phenomena, and displays universality. As the structure of a large number of multidimensional regression and modelling problems is very similar to portfolio optimization, the scope of the above observations extends far beyond finance, and covers a large number of problems in operations research, machine learning, bioinformatics, medical science, economics, and technology.

A Method for the Selection of Exploration Areas for Unconformity Uranium Deposits

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harris, DeVerle P.; Zaluski, Gerard; Marlatt, James

2009-06-15

The method we propose employs two analyses: (1) exploration simulation and risk valuation and (2) portfolio optimization. The first analysis, implemented by the investment worth system (IWS), uses Monte Carlo simulation to integrate a wide spectrum of uncertain and varied components to a relative frequency histogram for net present value of the exploration investment, which is converted to a risk-adjusted value (RAV). Iterative rerunning of the IWS enables the mapping of the relationship of RAV to magnitude of exploration expenditure, X. The second major analysis uses RAV vs. X maps to identify that subset (portfolio) of areas that maximizes themore » RAV of the firm's multiyear exploration budget. The IWS, which is demonstrated numerically, consists of six components based on the geologic description of a hypothetical basin and project area (PA) and a mix of hypothetical and actual conditions of an unidentified area. The geology is quantified and processed by Bayesian belief networks to produce the geology-based inputs required by the IWS. An exploration investment of $60 M produced a highly skewed distribution of net present value (NPV), having mean and median values of $4,160 M and $139 M, respectively. For hypothetical mining firm Minex, the RAV of the exploration investment of $60 M is only $110.7 M. An RAV that is less than 3% of mean NPV reflects the aversion by Minex to risk as well as the magnitude of risk implicit to the highly skewed NPV distribution and the probability of 0.45 for capital loss. Potential benefits of initiating exploration of a portfolio of areas, as contrasted with one area, include increased marginal productivity of exploration as well as reduced probability for nondiscovery. For an exogenously determined multiyear exploration budget, a conceptual framework for portfolio optimization is developed based on marginal RAV exploration products for candidate PAs. PORTFOLIO, a software developed to implement optimization, allocates exploration to PAs so that the RAV of the exploration budget is maximized. Moreover, PORTFOLIO provides a means to examine the impact of magnitude of budget on the composition of the exploration portfolio and the optimum allocation of exploration to PAs that comprise the portfolio. Using fictitious data for five PAs, a numerical demonstration is provided of the use of PORTFOLIO to identify those PAs that comprise the optimum exploration portfolio and to optimally allocate the multiyear budget across portfolio PAs.« less

Minimization of the root of a quadratic functional under a system of affine equality constraints with application to portfolio management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landsman, Zinoviy

2008-10-01

We present an explicit closed form solution of the problem of minimizing the root of a quadratic functional subject to a system of affine constraints. The result generalizes Z. Landsman, Minimization of the root of a quadratic functional under an affine equality constraint, J. Comput. Appl. Math. 2007, to appear, see , articles in press, where the optimization problem was solved under only one linear constraint. This is of interest for solving significant problems pertaining to financial economics as well as some classes of feasibility and optimization problems which frequently occur in tomography and other fields. The results are illustrated in the problem of optimal portfolio selection and the particular case when the expected return of finance portfolio is certain is discussed.

Managing the Facilities Portfolio: New Book Addresses Elimination of $60 Billion Problem.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rush, Sean; And Others

1991-01-01

This excerpt from "Managing the Facilities Portfolio: A Practical Approach to Institutional Renewal and Deferred Maintenance" offers higher education business officers a conceptual framework comprising four steps: (1) establish baseline; (2) estimate needs; (3) compare model alternatives; and (4) report to management. (DB)

Beginning science teachers' performances: Assessment in times of reform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Budzinsky, Fie K.

2000-10-01

The current reform in science education and the research on effective teaching and student learning have reinforced the importance of teacher competency. To better measure performances in the teaching of science, performance assessment has been added to Connecticut's licensure process for beginning science teachers. Teaching portfolios are used to document teaching and learning over time. Portfolios, however, are not without problems. One of the major concerns with the portfolio assessment process is its subjectivity. Assessors may not have opportunities to ask clarifying or follow-up questions to enhance the interpretation of a teacher's performance. In addition, portfolios often contain components based on self-documentation, which are subjective. Furthermore, the use of portfolios raises test equity issues. These concerns present challenges for persons in charge of establishing the validity of a portfolio-based licensure process. In high-stakes decision processes, such as teaching licensure, the validity of the assessment instruments must be studied. The primary purpose of this study was to explore the criterion-related validity of the Connecticut State Department of Education's Beginning Science Teaching Portfolio by comparing the interpretations of performances from science teaching portfolios to those derived from another assessment method, the Expert Science Teaching Educational and Evaluation Model, (ESTEEM). The analysis of correlations between the Beginning Science Teaching Portfolio and ESTEEM instrument scores was the primary method for establishing support for validity. The results indicated moderate correlations between all Beginning Science Teaching Portfolio and ESTEEM category and total variables. Multiple regression was used to examine whether differences existed in beginning science teachers' performances based on gender, poverty group, school level, and science discipline taught. None of these variables significantly contributed to the explanation of variance in the ESTEEM (p > .05), but poverty group and gender were significant predictors of portfolio performances, accounting for 21% of the total variance. Finally, data from interviews, written surveys, and beginning teacher attendance records at state-supported seminars were analyzed qualitatively and quantitatively. This information provided insight about the quality and quantity of support beginning science teachers received in their efforts to document, via the science teaching portfolio, their abilities to implement the Connecticut Professional Science Teaching Standards.

An indexing and price movement model for managing pension funds.

PubMed

Freeman, H R

1994-10-01

A model for the investment of pension funds has been created that combines passive and active portfolio management strategies. The model uses a passive index fund to reduce the amount spent in transaction costs. It applies a percentage band that identifies the portion of the portfolio that should be committed to equity investments at various stages of the market movement cycle. Finally, it uses price movement trigger points to dictate when pension funds should be moved into and withdrawn from stock market investments.

Renewable Energy used in State Renewable Portfolio Standards Yielded

Science.gov Websites

. Renewable Portfolio Standards also shows national water withdrawals and water consumption by fossil-fuel methodologies, while recognizing that states could perform their own more-detailed assessments," NREL's , respectively. Ranges are presented as the models and methodologies used are sensitive to multiple parameters

On the use of genetic algorithm to optimize industrial assets lifecycle management under safety and budget constraints

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lonchampt, J.; Fessart, K.

2013-07-01

The purpose of this paper is to describe the method and tool dedicated to optimize investments planning for industrial assets. These investments may either be preventive maintenance tasks, asset enhancements or logistic investments such as spare parts purchases. The two methodological points to investigate in such an issue are: 1. The measure of the profitability of a portfolio of investments 2. The selection and planning of an optimal set of investments 3. The measure of the risk of a portfolio of investments The measure of the profitability of a set of investments in the IPOP tool is synthesised in themore » Net Present Value indicator. The NPV is the sum of the differences of discounted cash flows (direct costs, forced outages...) between the situations with and without a given investment. These cash flows are calculated through a pseudo-Markov reliability model representing independently the components of the industrial asset and the spare parts inventories. The component model has been widely discussed over the years but the spare part model is a new one based on some approximations that will be discussed. This model, referred as the NPV function, takes for input an investments portfolio and gives its NPV. The second issue is to optimize the NPV. If all investments were independent, this optimization would be an easy calculation, unfortunately there are two sources of dependency. The first one is introduced by the spare part model, as if components are indeed independent in their reliability model, the fact that several components use the same inventory induces a dependency. The second dependency comes from economic, technical or logistic constraints, such as a global maintenance budget limit or a safety requirement limiting the residual risk of failure of a component or group of component, making the aggregation of individual optimum not necessary feasible. The algorithm used to solve such a difficult optimization problem is a genetic algorithm. After a description of the features of the software a test case is presented showing the influence of the optimization algorithm parameters on its efficiency to find an optimal investments planning. (authors)« less

Trimming a hazard logic tree with a new model-order-reduction technique

USGS Publications Warehouse

Porter, Keith; Field, Edward; Milner, Kevin R

2017-01-01

The size of the logic tree within the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast Version 3, Time-Dependent (UCERF3-TD) model can challenge risk analyses of large portfolios. An insurer or catastrophe risk modeler concerned with losses to a California portfolio might have to evaluate a portfolio 57,600 times to estimate risk in light of the hazard possibility space. Which branches of the logic tree matter most, and which can one ignore? We employed two model-order-reduction techniques to simplify the model. We sought a subset of parameters that must vary, and the specific fixed values for the remaining parameters, to produce approximately the same loss distribution as the original model. The techniques are (1) a tornado-diagram approach we employed previously for UCERF2, and (2) an apparently novel probabilistic sensitivity approach that seems better suited to functions of nominal random variables. The new approach produces a reduced-order model with only 60 of the original 57,600 leaves. One can use the results to reduce computational effort in loss analyses by orders of magnitude.

Tweaking Science Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andersen, Hans O.

2000-01-01

Discusses problems facing science education supervisors and suggests possible solutions. Comments on the experiences of beginning teachers, portfolio compilation, mentoring, and the evaluation and selection of curricular and technological innovations. (Contains 14 references.) (WRM)

Comprehensive Education Portfolio with a Career Focus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kruger, Evonne J.; Holtzman, Diane M.; Dagavarian, Debra A.

2013-01-01

There are many types of student portfolios used within academia: the prior learning portfolio, credentialing portfolio, developmental portfolio, capstone portfolio, individual course portfolio, and the comprehensive education portfolio. The comprehensive education portfolio (CEP), as used by the authors, is a student portfolio, developed over…

Mean-variance portfolio analysis data for optimizing community-based photovoltaic investment.

PubMed

Shakouri, Mahmoud; Lee, Hyun Woo

2016-03-01

The amount of electricity generated by Photovoltaic (PV) systems is affected by factors such as shading, building orientation and roof slope. To increase electricity generation and reduce volatility in generation of PV systems, a portfolio of PV systems can be made which takes advantages of the potential synergy among neighboring buildings. This paper contains data supporting the research article entitled: PACPIM: new decision-support model of optimized portfolio analysis for community-based photovoltaic investment [1]. We present a set of data relating to physical properties of 24 houses in Oregon, USA, along with simulated hourly electricity data for the installed PV systems. The developed Matlab code to construct optimized portfolios is also provided in . The application of these files can be generalized to variety of communities interested in investing on PV systems.

Getting the most out of your IP--patent management along its life cycle.

PubMed

Bader, Martin A; Gassmann, Oliver; Ziegler, Nicole; Ruether, Frauke

2012-04-01

Effectively managing and optimizing the value of the patent portfolio is a major challenge for many firms, especially those in knowledge intensive industries, such as the pharmaceutical, biotechnological and chemical industry. However, insights on effective patent portfolio strategies are rare. Therefore, in this article we investigate in detail how firms successfully manage and optimize their patent portfolios to increase their overall competitiveness. We discover that successful patent portfolio management is rooted in managing the patents along their life cycles. Based on the findings of ten case studies, we develop a holistic patent life cycle management model reflecting five distinctive phases of patent management: explore, generate, protect, optimize and decline. We conclude with how our findings can be used in practice. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Portfolio Creation Model Developed for the Capital Investment Program Plan Review (CIPPR)

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-11-12

Basinger, Director, DCI, CFD Scientific Letter The PORTFOLIO CREATION MODEL developed for the Capital Investment Program Plan Review (CIPPR) To inform...senior management about CIPPR decision support, this scientific letter has been prepared upon request [1] to clarify some of the key concepts about...delivery process as laid out in the Defence Project Approval Directive (PAD). 1 With respect to the list above, the subject of this scientific letter is

Practice and professional development plans (PPDPs): results of a feasibility study.

PubMed

Elwyn, G; Carlisle, S; Hocking, P; Smail, S

2001-01-01

Dissatisfaction with uniprofessional education structures as a means of improving the quality of healthcare has led to proposals to develop ways of integrating professional learning and organisational development. Test the feasibility of introducing practice and professional development plans using a centrally sponsored project in Wales. Qualitative observational study. All 541 practices in Wales were alerted to the project and invited to apply. A selection process was suggested to Health Authorities but not always efficiently conducted: 23 practices were selected and 18 participated in the process. Central funding was made available to health authorities. The project framework was designed by an educational department and conceptualised as the development of personal portfolios linked to one key organisation change in each practice, facilitated by external consultants who would typically hold workshops or other events. An independent researcher using non-participant observation techniques at workshops and practices undertook documentary analysis and fieldwork in four health authorities. Difficulties were encountered with the process of implementing the project: marketing and practice selection inconsistencies delayed the work and it was difficult to recruit practices into the project. The lack of experienced individuals to do the work and practitioner suspicion about perceived 'management' agendas were significant problems. After initial hesitancies most practices appreciated the value of developing wider ownership and commitment to proposed practice changes. Organisations found it difficult to support individual completion of the personal portfolio component of the plans. The ability to develop systems for clinical services was dependent on having already established a culture of effective teamwork in the organisation. This work supports the view that organisational development has considerable potential for bringing about effective change, and individual contributions could form a valuable component of personal portfolios. We believe that the existing structures in education and management in the health service are not yet able to support these processes. Evidence from the fields of risk management and quality improvement all point to the need to develop effective organisational systems and the results of this feasibility study indicate that alternative models of sustaining organisational development need careful evaluation.

Practice and professional development plans (PPDPs): results of a feasibility study

PubMed Central

Elwyn, Glyn; Carlisle, Sandra; Hocking, Paul; Smail, Simon

2001-01-01

Background Dissatisfaction with uniprofessional education structures as a means of improving the quality of healthcare has led to proposals to develop ways of integrating professional learning and organisational development. Aims Test the feasibility of introducing practice and professional development plans using a centrally sponsored project in Wales. Design Qualitative observational study. Study sample All 541 practices in Wales were alerted to the project and invited to apply. A selection process was suggested to Health Authorities but not always efficiently conducted: 23 practices were selected and 18 participated in the process. Method Central funding was made available to health authorities. The project framework was designed by an educational department and conceptualised as the development of personal portfolios linked to one key organisation change in each practice, facilitated by external consultants who would typically hold workshops or other events. An independent researcher using non-participant observation techniques at workshops and practices undertook documentary analysis and fieldwork in four health authorities. Results Difficulties were encountered with the process of implementing the project: marketing and practice selection inconsistencies delayed the work and it was difficult to recruit practices into the project. The lack of experienced individuals to do the work and practitioner suspicion about perceived 'management' agendas were significant problems. After initial hesitancies most practices appreciated the value of developing wider ownership and commitment to proposed practice changes. Organisations found it difficult to support individual completion of the personal portfolio component of the plans. The ability to develop systems for clinical services was dependent on having already established a culture of effective teamwork in the organisation. Conclusions This work supports the view that organisational development has considerable potential for bringing about effective change, and individual contributions could form a valuable component of personal portfolios. We believe that the existing structures in education and management in the health service are not yet able to support these processes. Evidence from the fields of risk management and quality improvement all point to the need to develop effective organisational systems and the results of this feasibility study indicate that alternative models of sustaining organisational development need careful evaluation. PMID:11299046

Inverse Optimization: A New Perspective on the Black-Litterman Model.

PubMed

Bertsimas, Dimitris; Gupta, Vishal; Paschalidis, Ioannis Ch

2012-12-11

The Black-Litterman (BL) model is a widely used asset allocation model in the financial industry. In this paper, we provide a new perspective. The key insight is to replace the statistical framework in the original approach with ideas from inverse optimization. This insight allows us to significantly expand the scope and applicability of the BL model. We provide a richer formulation that, unlike the original model, is flexible enough to incorporate investor information on volatility and market dynamics. Equally importantly, our approach allows us to move beyond the traditional mean-variance paradigm of the original model and construct "BL"-type estimators for more general notions of risk such as coherent risk measures. Computationally, we introduce and study two new "BL"-type estimators and their corresponding portfolios: a Mean Variance Inverse Optimization (MV-IO) portfolio and a Robust Mean Variance Inverse Optimization (RMV-IO) portfolio. These two approaches are motivated by ideas from arbitrage pricing theory and volatility uncertainty. Using numerical simulation and historical backtesting, we show that both methods often demonstrate a better risk-reward tradeoff than their BL counterparts and are more robust to incorrect investor views.

Forecasting VaR and ES of stock index portfolio: A Vine copula method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Bangzheng; Wei, Yu; Yu, Jiang; Lai, Xiaodong; Peng, Zhenfeng

2014-12-01

Risk measurement has both theoretical and practical significance in risk management. Using daily sample of 10 international stock indices, firstly this paper models the internal structures among different stock markets with C-Vine, D-Vine and R-Vine copula models. Secondly, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of the international stock markets portfolio are forecasted using Monte Carlo method based on the estimated dependence of different Vine copulas. Finally, the accuracy of VaR and ES measurements obtained from different statistical models are evaluated by UC, IND, CC and Posterior analysis. The empirical results show that the VaR forecasts at the quantile levels of 0.9, 0.95, 0.975 and 0.99 with three kinds of Vine copula models are sufficiently accurate. Several traditional methods, such as historical simulation, mean-variance and DCC-GARCH models, fail to pass the CC backtesting. The Vine copula methods can accurately forecast the ES of the portfolio on the base of VaR measurement, and D-Vine copula model is superior to other Vine copulas.

The Lesson Observation On-Line (Evidence Portfolio) Platform

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, David G.

2015-01-01

At a time when teacher training is being moved to school-based programmes it is important to engage in a research-informed dialogue about creating more distinctive, and cost-effective 21st century models of teacher training. Three years ago I began feasibility field testing the Lesson Observation On-line (Evidence Portfolio) Platform [LOOP]…

Implementing Curriculum-Based Learning Portfolio: A Case Study in Taiwan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Shu-Chin Susan; Cheng, Yu-Pay

2011-01-01

The main purpose of this descriptive research is to examine and document the development of a curriculum-based learning portfolio model for children in a preschool for three-six-year-olds in Taiwan. Data collection methods adopted include classroom observation, in-depth interviews, questionnaires and documentation. Participants include a preschool…

A Research Experience Using Portfolios for Assessing College Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cisneros-Cohernour, Edith J.; Stake, Robert E.

2014-01-01

In this article, we use the findings of a study conducted in a university in the southeast of Mexico to examine strengths and limitations of portfolios to assess formatively the quality of teaching. The research is part of the study: Model for the Development and Evaluation of Academic Competencies, involving researchers from six Mexican…

From ePortfolios to iPortfolios: The Find, Refine, Design, and Bind Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foti, Sebastian; Ring, Gail L.

2008-01-01

During the past two decades, educational institutions around the world began formalizing the process of collecting student work as a means of showcasing student accomplishments and ultimately providing students a forum for reflecting on their accomplishments. In this article, the authors propose a redefinition of the electronic portfolio…

Portfolio Based Faculty Development Conversations: A Model for Increasing Teaching Efficacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crawford, Sabrina

2017-01-01

A shift in higher education towards increasing accountability for teaching effectiveness has institutions reevaluating how they utilize faculty evaluation tools. The purpose of this case study was to probe perceptions on the value of using teaching portfolios, supported by PLC conversations between faculty and deans, as an evaluation strategy that…

Ant Colony Optimization for Markowitz Mean-Variance Portfolio Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Guang-Feng; Lin, Woo-Tsong

This work presents Ant Colony Optimization (ACO), which was initially developed to be a meta-heuristic for combinatorial optimization, for solving the cardinality constraints Markowitz mean-variance portfolio model (nonlinear mixed quadratic programming problem). To our knowledge, an efficient algorithmic solution for this problem has not been proposed until now. Using heuristic algorithms in this case is imperative. Numerical solutions are obtained for five analyses of weekly price data for the following indices for the period March, 1992 to September, 1997: Hang Seng 31 in Hong Kong, DAX 100 in Germany, FTSE 100 in UK, S&P 100 in USA and Nikkei 225 in Japan. The test results indicate that the ACO is much more robust and effective than Particle swarm optimization (PSO), especially for low-risk investment portfolios.

Hyperspectral remote sensing of plant biochemistry using Bayesian model averaging with variable and band selection

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhao, Kaiguang; Valle, Denis; Popescu, Sorin

2013-05-15

Model specification remains challenging in spectroscopy of plant biochemistry, as exemplified by the availability of various spectral indices or band combinations for estimating the same biochemical. This lack of consensus in model choice across applications argues for a paradigm shift in hyperspectral methods to address model uncertainty and misspecification. We demonstrated one such method using Bayesian model averaging (BMA), which performs variable/band selection and quantifies the relative merits of many candidate models to synthesize a weighted average model with improved predictive performances. The utility of BMA was examined using a portfolio of 27 foliage spectral–chemical datasets representing over 80 speciesmore » across the globe to estimate multiple biochemical properties, including nitrogen, hydrogen, carbon, cellulose, lignin, chlorophyll (a or b), carotenoid, polar and nonpolar extractives, leaf mass per area, and equivalent water thickness. We also compared BMA with partial least squares (PLS) and stepwise multiple regression (SMR). Results showed that all the biochemicals except carotenoid were accurately estimated from hyerspectral data with R2 values > 0.80.« less

Collective defence portfolios of ant hosts shift with social parasite pressure

PubMed Central

Jongepier, Evelien; Kleeberg, Isabelle; Job, Sylwester; Foitzik, Susanne

2014-01-01

Host defences become increasingly costly as parasites breach successive lines of defence. Because selection favours hosts that successfully resist parasitism at the lowest possible cost, escalating coevolutionary arms races are likely to drive host defence portfolios towards ever more expensive strategies. We investigated the interplay between host defence portfolios and social parasite pressure by comparing 17 populations of two Temnothorax ant species. When successful, collective aggression not only prevents parasitation but also spares host colonies the cost of searching for and moving to a new nest site. However, once parasites breach the host's nest defence, host colonies should resort to flight as the more beneficial resistance strategy. We show that under low parasite pressure, host colonies more likely responded to an intruding Protomognathus americanus slavemaker with collective aggression, which prevented the slavemaker from escaping and potentially recruiting nest-mates. However, as parasite pressure increased, ant colonies of both host species became more likely to flee rather than to fight. We conclude that host defence portfolios shift consistently with social parasite pressure, which is in accordance with the degeneration of frontline defences and the evolution of subsequent anti-parasite strategies often invoked in hosts of brood parasites. PMID:25100690

Application of Project Portfolio Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankowska, Malgorzata

The main goal of the chapter is the presentation of the application project portfolio management approach to support development of e-Municipality and public administration information systems. The models of how people publish and utilize information on the web have been transformed continually. Instead of simply viewing on static web pages, users publish their own content through blogs and photo- and video-sharing slides. Analysed in this chapter, ICT (Information Communication Technology) projects for municipalities cover the mixture of the static web pages, e-Government information systems, and Wikis. So, for the management of the ICT projects' mixtures the portfolio project management approach is proposed.

Portfolio optimization for seed selection in diverse weather scenarios.

PubMed

Marko, Oskar; Brdar, Sanja; Panić, Marko; Šašić, Isidora; Despotović, Danica; Knežević, Milivoje; Crnojević, Vladimir

2017-01-01

The aim of this work was to develop a method for selection of optimal soybean varieties for the American Midwest using data analytics. We extracted the knowledge about 174 varieties from the dataset, which contained information about weather, soil, yield and regional statistical parameters. Next, we predicted the yield of each variety in each of 6,490 observed subregions of the Midwest. Furthermore, yield was predicted for all the possible weather scenarios approximated by 15 historical weather instances contained in the dataset. Using predicted yields and covariance between varieties through different weather scenarios, we performed portfolio optimisation. In this way, for each subregion, we obtained a selection of varieties, that proved superior to others in terms of the amount and stability of yield. According to the rules of Syngenta Crop Challenge, for which this research was conducted, we aggregated the results across all subregions and selected up to five soybean varieties that should be distributed across the network of seed retailers. The work presented in this paper was the winning solution for Syngenta Crop Challenge 2017.

Portfolio optimization for seed selection in diverse weather scenarios

PubMed Central

Brdar, Sanja; Panić, Marko; Šašić, Isidora; Despotović, Danica; Knežević, Milivoje; Crnojević, Vladimir

2017-01-01

The aim of this work was to develop a method for selection of optimal soybean varieties for the American Midwest using data analytics. We extracted the knowledge about 174 varieties from the dataset, which contained information about weather, soil, yield and regional statistical parameters. Next, we predicted the yield of each variety in each of 6,490 observed subregions of the Midwest. Furthermore, yield was predicted for all the possible weather scenarios approximated by 15 historical weather instances contained in the dataset. Using predicted yields and covariance between varieties through different weather scenarios, we performed portfolio optimisation. In this way, for each subregion, we obtained a selection of varieties, that proved superior to others in terms of the amount and stability of yield. According to the rules of Syngenta Crop Challenge, for which this research was conducted, we aggregated the results across all subregions and selected up to five soybean varieties that should be distributed across the network of seed retailers. The work presented in this paper was the winning solution for Syngenta Crop Challenge 2017. PMID:28863173

Reliability of Portfolio: A Closer Look at Findings from Recent Publications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oskay, Ozge Ozyalcin; Schallies, Michael; Morgil, Inci

2008-01-01

In this review article, conventional portfolio assessment and new developments in portfolio assessment are investigated. The concept of portfolio, portfolio building steps, contents of portfolio, evaluation of portfolio, advantages, disadvantages and concerns in using portfolio as well as validity and reliability of portfolio assessment are…

Consumerism as a branding opportunity.

PubMed

Treash, M; Adams, R

1998-01-01

Managing a customer portfolio at the individual level is the most difficult and most promising endeavor. An individual level consumer portfolio does not mean creating marketing materials and advertising campaigns customized for every member of your health plan. What it does mean is developing segmentation models based on consumer preferences extracted directly from your members, not socioeconomic or other demographic models. The most important information to extract is perceptions on how much and what kind of value members want from the organization.

Land-use planning for nearshore ecosystem services—the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Byrd, Kristin

2011-01-01

The 2,500 miles of shoreline and nearshore areas of Puget Sound, Washington, provide multiple benefits to people—"ecosystem services"—including important fishing, shellfishing, and recreation industries. To help resource managers plan for expected growth in coming decades, the U.S. Geological Survey Western Geographic Science Center has developed the Puget Sound Ecosystem Portfolio Model (PSEPM). Scenarios of urban growth and shoreline modifications serve as model inputs to develop alternative futures of important nearshore features such as water quality and beach habitats. Model results will support regional long-term planning decisions for the Puget Sound region.

PID feedback controller used as a tactical asset allocation technique: The G.A.M. model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gandolfi, G.; Sabatini, A.; Rossolini, M.

2007-09-01

The objective of this paper is to illustrate a tactical asset allocation technique utilizing the PID controller. The proportional-integral-derivative (PID) controller is widely applied in most industrial processes; it has been successfully used for over 50 years and it is used by more than 95% of the plants processes. It is a robust and easily understood algorithm that can provide excellent control performance in spite of the diverse dynamic characteristics of the process plant. In finance, the process plant, controlled by the PID controller, can be represented by financial market assets forming a portfolio. More specifically, in the present work, the plant is represented by a risk-adjusted return variable. Money and portfolio managers’ main target is to achieve a relevant risk-adjusted return in their managing activities. In literature and in the financial industry business, numerous kinds of return/risk ratios are commonly studied and used. The aim of this work is to perform a tactical asset allocation technique consisting in the optimization of risk adjusted return by means of asset allocation methodologies based on the PID model-free feedback control modeling procedure. The process plant does not need to be mathematically modeled: the PID control action lies in altering the portfolio asset weights, according to the PID algorithm and its parameters, Ziegler-and-Nichols-tuned, in order to approach the desired portfolio risk-adjusted return efficiently.

Targeted selection of brownfields from portfolios for sustainable regeneration: User experiences from five cases testing the Timbre Brownfield Prioritization Tool.

PubMed

Bartke, Stephan; Martinát, Stanislav; Klusáček, Petr; Pizzol, Lisa; Alexandrescu, Filip; Frantál, Bohumil; Critto, Andrea; Zabeo, Alex

2016-12-15

Prioritizing brownfields for redevelopment in real estate portfolios can contribute to more sustainable regeneration and land management. Owners of large real estate and brownfield portfolios are challenged to allocate their limited resources to the development of the most critical or promising sites, in terms of time and cost efficiency. Authorities worried about the negative impacts of brownfields - in particular in the case of potential contamination - on the environment and society also need to prioritize their resources to those brownfields that most urgently deserve attention and intervention. Yet, numerous factors have to be considered for prioritizing actions, in particular when adhering to sustainability principles. Several multiple-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approaches and tools have been suggested in order to support these actors in managing their brownfield portfolios. Based on lessons learned from the literature on success factors, sustainability assessment and MCDA approaches, researchers from a recent EU project have developed the web-based Timbre Brownfield Prioritization Tool (TBPT). It facilitates assessment and prioritization of a portfolio of sites on the basis of the probability of successful and sustainable regeneration or according to individually specified objectives. This paper introduces the challenges of brownfield portfolio management in general and reports about the application of the TBPT in five cases: practical test-uses by two large institutional land owners from Germany, a local and a regional administrative body from the Czech Republic, and an expert from a national environmental authority from Romania. Based on literature requirements for sustainability assessment tools and on the end-users' feedbacks from the practical tests, we discuss the TBPT's strengths and weaknesses in order to inform and give recommendations for future development of prioritization tools. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Portfolio: a prototype workstation for development and evaluation of tools for analysis and management of digital portal images.

PubMed

Boxwala, A A; Chaney, E L; Fritsch, D S; Friedman, C P; Rosenman, J G

1998-09-01

The purpose of this investigation was to design and implement a prototype physician workstation, called PortFolio, as a platform for developing and evaluating, by means of controlled observer studies, user interfaces and interactive tools for analyzing and managing digital portal images. The first observer study was designed to measure physician acceptance of workstation technology, as an alternative to a view box, for inspection and analysis of portal images for detection of treatment setup errors. The observer study was conducted in a controlled experimental setting to evaluate physician acceptance of the prototype workstation technology exemplified by PortFolio. PortFolio incorporates a windows user interface, a compact kit of carefully selected image analysis tools, and an object-oriented data base infrastructure. The kit evaluated in the observer study included tools for contrast enhancement, registration, and multimodal image visualization. Acceptance was measured in the context of performing portal image analysis in a structured protocol designed to simulate clinical practice. The acceptability and usage patterns were measured from semistructured questionnaires and logs of user interactions. Radiation oncologists, the subjects for this study, perceived the tools in PortFolio to be acceptable clinical aids. Concerns were expressed regarding user efficiency, particularly with respect to the image registration tools. The results of our observer study indicate that workstation technology is acceptable to radiation oncologists as an alternative to a view box for clinical detection of setup errors from digital portal images. Improvements in implementation, including more tools and a greater degree of automation in the image analysis tasks, are needed to make PortFolio more clinically practical.

Investment strategy due to the minimization of portfolio noise level by observations of coarse-grained entropy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urbanowicz, Krzysztof; Hołyst, Janusz A.

2004-12-01

Using a recently developed method of noise level estimation that makes use of properties of the coarse-grained entropy, we have analyzed the noise level for the Dow Jones index and a few stocks from the New York Stock Exchange. We have found that the noise level ranges from 40% to 80% of the signal variance. The condition of a minimal noise level has been applied to construct optimal portfolios from selected shares. We show that the implementation of a corresponding threshold investment strategy leads to positive returns for historical data.

Evaluation of Hydrologic Simulations Developed Using Multi-Model Synthesis and Remotely-Sensed Data within a Portfolio of Calibration Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafontaine, J.; Hay, L.; Markstrom, S. L.

2016-12-01

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a National Hydrologic Model (NHM) to support coordinated, comprehensive and consistent hydrologic model development, and facilitate the application of hydrologic simulations within the conterminous United States (CONUS). As many stream reaches in the CONUS are either not gaged, or are substantially impacted by water use or flow regulation, ancillary information must be used to determine reasonable parameter estimations for streamflow simulations. Hydrologic models for 1,576 gaged watersheds across the CONUS were developed to test the feasibility of improving streamflow simulations linking physically-based hydrologic models with remotely-sensed data products (i.e. snow water equivalent). Initially, the physically-based models were calibrated to measured streamflow data to provide a baseline for comparison across multiple calibration strategy tests. In addition, not all ancillary datasets are appropriate for application to all parts of the CONUS (e.g. snow water equivalent in the southeastern U.S., where snow is a rarity). As it is not expected that any one data product or model simulation will be sufficient for representing hydrologic behavior across the entire CONUS, a systematic evaluation of which data products improve hydrologic simulations for various regions across the CONUS was performed. The resulting portfolio of calibration strategies can be used to guide selection of an appropriate combination of modeled and measured information for hydrologic model development and calibration. In addition, these calibration strategies have been developed to be flexible so that new data products can be assimilated. This analysis provides a foundation to understand how well models work when sufficient streamflow data are not available and could be used to further inform hydrologic model parameter development for ungaged areas.

Mean-variance portfolio analysis data for optimizing community-based photovoltaic investment

PubMed Central

Shakouri, Mahmoud; Lee, Hyun Woo

2016-01-01

The amount of electricity generated by Photovoltaic (PV) systems is affected by factors such as shading, building orientation and roof slope. To increase electricity generation and reduce volatility in generation of PV systems, a portfolio of PV systems can be made which takes advantages of the potential synergy among neighboring buildings. This paper contains data supporting the research article entitled: PACPIM: new decision-support model of optimized portfolio analysis for community-based photovoltaic investment [1]. We present a set of data relating to physical properties of 24 houses in Oregon, USA, along with simulated hourly electricity data for the installed PV systems. The developed Matlab code to construct optimized portfolios is also provided in Supplementary materials. The application of these files can be generalized to variety of communities interested in investing on PV systems. PMID:26937458

Neural network for solving convex quadratic bilevel programming problems.

PubMed

He, Xing; Li, Chuandong; Huang, Tingwen; Li, Chaojie

2014-03-01

In this paper, using the idea of successive approximation, we propose a neural network to solve convex quadratic bilevel programming problems (CQBPPs), which is modeled by a nonautonomous differential inclusion. Different from the existing neural network for CQBPP, the model has the least number of state variables and simple structure. Based on the theory of nonsmooth analysis, differential inclusions and Lyapunov-like method, the limit equilibrium points sequence of the proposed neural networks can approximately converge to an optimal solution of CQBPP under certain conditions. Finally, simulation results on two numerical examples and the portfolio selection problem show the effectiveness and performance of the proposed neural network. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enabling Systemic Change: Creating an ePortfolio Implementation Framework through Design and Development Research for Use by Higher Education Professionals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blevins, Samantha; Brill, Jennifer

2017-01-01

Drawing from a design and development research approach, specifically model research, this study investigated the perspectives of higher education faculty and administrators regarding their experiences with a university-wide electronic portfolio implementation initiative. Participants in the study were fifty-two faculty and administrators at a…

Evaluating Processes and Platforms for Potential ePortfolio Use: The Role of the Middle Agent

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Slade, Christine; Murfin, Keith; Readman, Kylie

2013-01-01

With the changing face of higher education comes a demand to include new technological tools. Universities need to build their capacity to respond to new technology-related challenges. The introduction of ePortfolios is a significant strategy in this response. A number of organizational change management models are used to analyze the…

Using Portfolios to Improve Teaching Quality: The Case of a Small Business School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stewart, Ian

2004-01-01

In this study, the author applies B. K. Curry's (1992) model of organizational institutionalization to a case study involving efforts to implement course and teaching portfolios in a small business school. This article is based on the personal observations of those involved and the published literature on the subject. Both teaching and course…

Analysis of the Technology Acceptance Model in Examining Students' Behavioural Intention to Use an e-Portfolio System

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shroff, Ronnie H.; Deneen, Christopher C.; Ng, Eugenia M. W.

2011-01-01

In recent years, instructors have had an increasing interest in integrating Internet based technologies into their classroom as part of the learning environment. Compared to studies on other information systems, student users' behaviour towards e-portfolios have not been assessed and thoroughly understood. This paper analyses the "Technology…

First Year Student Adjustment, Success, and Retention: Structural Models of Student Persistence Using Electronic Portfolios

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sandler, Martin E.

2010-01-01

This study explores the deployment of electronic portfolios to a university-wide cohort of freshman undergraduates that included a subgroup of at-risk and lower academically prepared learners. Five evaluative dimensions based on persistence and engagement theory were included in the development of four assessment rubrics exploring goal clarity,…

Successful healthcare programs and projects: organization portfolio management essentials.

PubMed

Pickens, Scott; Solak, Jamie

2005-01-01

Many healthcare organization projects take more time and resources than planned and fail to deliver desired business outcomes. Healthcare IT is a major component of many projects and often undeservedly receives the blame for failure. Poor results are often not a result of faulty healthcare IT or poor project management or poor project execution alone. Many projects fail because of poor portfolio management--poor planning and management of the portfolio of initiatives designed to meet an organization's strategic goals. Because resources are limited, portfolio management enables organizations to more strategically allocate and manage their resources so care delivery, service delivery, and initiatives that advance organizations toward their strategic goals, including healthcare IT initiatives, can be accomplished at the levels of quality and service desired by an organization. Proper portfolio management is the essential foundation for program and project success and supports overall organization success. Without portfolio management, even programs and projects that execute flawlessly may not meet desired objectives. This article discusses the essential requirements for porfolio management. These include opportunity identification, return on investment (ROI) forecast, project prioritization, capacity planning (inclusive of human, financial, capital, and facilities resources), work scheduling, program and project management and execution, and project performance and value assessment. Portfolio management is essential to successful healthcare project execution. Theories are drawn from the Organizational Project Management Maturity Model (OPM3) work of the Project Management Institute and other leading strategy, planning, and organization change management research institutes.

Risk of portfolio with simulated returns based on copula model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Razak, Ruzanna Ab; Ismail, Noriszura

2015-02-01

The commonly used tool for measuring risk of a portfolio with equally weighted stocks is variance-covariance method. Under extreme circumstances, this method leads to significant underestimation of actual risk due to its multivariate normality assumption of the joint distribution of stocks. The purpose of this research is to compare the actual risk of portfolio with the simulated risk of portfolio in which the joint distribution of two return series is predetermined. The data used is daily stock prices from the ASEAN market for the period January 2000 to December 2012. The copula approach is applied to capture the time varying dependence among the return series. The results shows that the chosen copula families are not suitable to present the dependence structures of each bivariate returns. Exception for the Philippines-Thailand pair where by t copula distribution appears to be the appropriate choice to depict its dependence. Assuming that the t copula distribution is the joint distribution of each paired series, simulated returns is generated and value-at-risk (VaR) is then applied to evaluate the risk of each portfolio consisting of two simulated return series. The VaR estimates was found to be symmetrical due to the simulation of returns via elliptical copula-GARCH approach. By comparison, it is found that the actual risks are underestimated for all pairs of portfolios except for Philippines-Thailand. This study was able to show that disregard of the non-normal dependence structure of two series will result underestimation of actual risk of the portfolio.

Dependence and risk assessment for oil prices and exchange rate portfolios: A wavelet based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aloui, Chaker; Jammazi, Rania

2015-10-01

In this article, we propose a wavelet-based approach to accommodate the stylized facts and complex structure of financial data, caused by frequent and abrupt changes of markets and noises. Specifically, we show how the combination of both continuous and discrete wavelet transforms with traditional financial models helps improve portfolio's market risk assessment. In the empirical stage, three wavelet-based models (wavelet-EGARCH with dynamic conditional correlations, wavelet-copula, and wavelet-extreme value) are considered and applied to crude oil price and US dollar exchange rate data. Our findings show that the wavelet-based approach provides an effective and powerful tool for detecting extreme moments and improving the accuracy of VaR and Expected Shortfall estimates of oil-exchange rate portfolios after noise is removed from the original data.

Modeling the impacts of two age-related portfolio effects on recruitment variability with and without a marine reserve.

PubMed

McGilliard, Carey R; Punt, André E; Hilborn, Ray; Essington, Tim

2017-10-01

Many rockfish species are long-lived and thought to be susceptible to being overfished. Hypotheses about the importance of older female rockfish to population persistence have led to arguments that marine reserves are needed to ensure the sustainability of rockfish populations. However, the implications of these hypotheses for rockfish population dynamics are still unclear. We modeled two mechanisms by which reducing the proportion of older fish in a population has been hypothesized to influence sustainability, and explored whether these mechanisms influenced mean population dynamics and recruitment variability. We explored whether populations with these mechanisms could be managed more sustainably with a marine reserve in addition to a constant fishing mortality rate (F) than with a constant F alone. Both hypotheses can be seen as portfolio effects whereby risk of recruitment failure is spread over a "portfolio" of maternal ages. First, we modeled a spawning window effect whereby mothers of different ages spawned in different times or locations (windows) with local environmental conditions. Second, we modeled an offspring size effect whereby older mothers produced larger offspring than younger mothers, where length of a starvation period over which offspring could survive increased with maternal age. Recruitment variability resulting from both models was 55-65% lower than for models without maternal age-related portfolio effects in the absence of fishing and increased with increases in Fs for both models. An offspring size effect caused lower output reproductive rates such that the specified reproductive rate input as a model parameter was no longer the realized rate measured as the reproductive rate observed in model results; this quirk is not addressed in previous analyses of offspring size effects. We conducted a standardization such that offspring size effect and control models had the same observed reproductive rates. A comparison of long-term catch, the probability of falling below a biomass threshold, and recruitment variability over a range of exploitation rates for models with an age-related portfolio effect showed no benefit of a marine reserve implemented in addition to a constant F (as compared to a constant F alone) for populations with sedentary adults and sedentary or mobile larvae. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Physical approach to price momentum and its application to momentum strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Jaehyung

2014-12-01

We introduce various quantitative and mathematical definitions for price momentum of financial instruments. The price momentum is quantified with velocity and mass concepts originated from the momentum in physics. By using the physical momentum of price as a selection criterion, the weekly contrarian strategies are implemented in South Korea KOSPI 200 and US S&P 500 universes. The alternative strategies constructed by the physical momentum achieve the better expected returns and reward-risk measures than those of the traditional contrarian strategy in weekly scale. The portfolio performance is not understood by the Fama-French three-factor model.

Selection of Additive Manufacturing (AM) Equipment

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-04-01

in the design , test, and fabrication of the systems within the AMRDEC portfolio. 14. SUBJECT TERMS Additive Manufacturing (AM), Fused Deposition...tools in the design and development of AMRDEC products .   Figure 1. Stratasys Objet Connex3 [1] While these machines and technologies have...TECHNICAL REPORT RDMR-WD-16-87 SELECTION OF ADDITIVE MANUFACTURING (AM) EQUIPMENT Lance E. Hall Weapons Development

Household portfolio choices, health status and health care systems: A cross-country analysis based on SHARE.

PubMed

Atella, Vincenzo; Brunetti, Marianna; Maestas, Nicole

2012-05-01

Health risk is increasingly viewed as an important form of background risk that affects household portfolio decisions. However, its role might be mediated by the presence of a protective full-coverage national health service that could reduce households' probability of incurring current and future out-of-pocket medical expenditures. We use SHARE data to study the influence of current health status and future health risk on the decision to hold risky assets, across ten European countries with different health systems, each offering a different degree of protection against out-of-pocket medical expenditures. We find robust empirical evidence that perceived health status matters more than objective health status and, consistent with the theory of background risk, health risk affects portfolio choices only in countries with less protective health care systems. Furthermore, portfolio decisions consistent with background risk models are observed only with respect to middle-aged and highly-educated investors.

The Development of Statistics Textbook Supported with ICT and Portfolio-Based Assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hendikawati, Putriaji; Yuni Arini, Florentina

2016-02-01

This research was development research that aimed to develop and produce a Statistics textbook model that supported with information and communication technology (ICT) and Portfolio-Based Assessment. This book was designed for students of mathematics at the college to improve students’ ability in mathematical connection and communication. There were three stages in this research i.e. define, design, and develop. The textbooks consisted of 10 chapters which each chapter contains introduction, core materials and include examples and exercises. The textbook developed phase begins with the early stages of designed the book (draft 1) which then validated by experts. Revision of draft 1 produced draft 2 which then limited test for readability test book. Furthermore, revision of draft 2 produced textbook draft 3 which simulated on a small sample to produce a valid model textbook. The data were analysed with descriptive statistics. The analysis showed that the Statistics textbook model that supported with ICT and Portfolio-Based Assessment valid and fill up the criteria of practicality.

Planning a Target Renewable Portfolio using Atmospheric Modeling and Stochastic Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, E.; Jacobson, M. Z.

2009-12-01

A number of organizations have suggested that an 80% reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 is a necessary step to mitigate climate change and that decarbonization of the electricity sector is a crucial component of any strategy to meet this target. Integration of large renewable and intermittent generators poses many new problems in power system planning. In this study, we attempt to determine an optimal portfolio of renewable resources to meet best the fluctuating California load while also meeting an 80% carbon emissions reduction requirement. A stochastic optimization scheme is proposed that is based on a simplified model of the California electricity grid. In this single-busbar power system model, the load is met with generation from wind, solar thermal, photovoltaic, hydroelectric, geothermal, and natural gas plants. Wind speeds and insolation are calculated using GATOR-GCMOM, a global-through-urban climate-weather-air pollution model. Fields were produced for California and Nevada at 21km SN by 14 km WE spatial resolution every 15 minutes for the year 2006. Load data for 2006 were obtained from the California ISO OASIS database. Maximum installed capacities for wind and solar thermal generation were determined using a GIS analysis of potential development sites throughout the state. The stochastic optimization scheme requires that power balance be achieved in a number of meteorological and load scenarios that deviate from the forecasted (or modeled) data. By adjusting the error distributions of the forecasts, the model describes how improvements in wind speed and insolation forecasting may affect the optimal renewable portfolio. Using a simple model, we describe the diversity, size, and sensitivities of a renewable portfolio that is best suited to the resources and needs of California and that contributes significantly to reduction of the state’s carbon emissions.

Inverse Optimization: A New Perspective on the Black-Litterman Model

PubMed Central

Bertsimas, Dimitris; Gupta, Vishal; Paschalidis, Ioannis Ch.

2014-01-01

The Black-Litterman (BL) model is a widely used asset allocation model in the financial industry. In this paper, we provide a new perspective. The key insight is to replace the statistical framework in the original approach with ideas from inverse optimization. This insight allows us to significantly expand the scope and applicability of the BL model. We provide a richer formulation that, unlike the original model, is flexible enough to incorporate investor information on volatility and market dynamics. Equally importantly, our approach allows us to move beyond the traditional mean-variance paradigm of the original model and construct “BL”-type estimators for more general notions of risk such as coherent risk measures. Computationally, we introduce and study two new “BL”-type estimators and their corresponding portfolios: a Mean Variance Inverse Optimization (MV-IO) portfolio and a Robust Mean Variance Inverse Optimization (RMV-IO) portfolio. These two approaches are motivated by ideas from arbitrage pricing theory and volatility uncertainty. Using numerical simulation and historical backtesting, we show that both methods often demonstrate a better risk-reward tradeoff than their BL counterparts and are more robust to incorrect investor views. PMID:25382873

Domestic Violence and Social Responsibility in Contemporary Spanish Cinema: A Portfolio View of Behavioral Dynamics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zanzana, Habib

2010-01-01

Domestic abuse continues to claim many lives in Spain despite a series of new laws to protect women and to punish abusers. This essay explores the cultural influences of contemporary Spanish cinema on domestic violence. Four films are assessed against a Portfolio Model of social responsibility that uses two basic dimensions: realism and human…

Building-to-Grid Integration through Commercial Building Portfolios Participating in Energy and Frequency Regulation Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pavlak, Gregory S.

Building energy use is a significant contributing factor to growing worldwide energy demands. In pursuit of a sustainable energy future, commercial building operations must be intelligently integrated with the electric system to increase efficiency and enable renewable generation. Toward this end, a model-based methodology was developed to estimate the capability of commercial buildings to participate in frequency regulation ancillary service markets. This methodology was integrated into a supervisory model predictive controller to optimize building operation in consideration of energy prices, demand charges, and ancillary service revenue. The supervisory control problem was extended to building portfolios to evaluate opportunities for synergistic effect among multiple, centrally-optimized buildings. Simulation studies performed showed that the multi-market optimization was able to determine appropriate opportunities for buildings to provide frequency regulation. Total savings were increased by up to thirteen percentage points, depending on the simulation case. Furthermore, optimizing buildings as a portfolio achieved up to seven additional percentage points of savings, depending on the case. Enhanced energy and cost savings opportunities were observed by taking the novel perspective of optimizing building portfolios in multiple grid markets, motivating future pursuits of advanced control paradigms that enable a more intelligent electric grid.

Status of portfolios in undergraduate medical education in the LCME accredited US medical school.

PubMed

Chertoff, Jason; Wright, Ashleigh; Novak, Maureen; Fantone, Joseph; Fleming, Amy; Ahmed, Toufeeq; Green, Marianne M; Kalet, Adina; Linsenmeyer, Machelle; Jacobs, Joshua; Dokter, Christina; Zaidi, Zareen

2016-09-01

We sought to investigate the number of US medical schools utilizing portfolios, the format of portfolios, information technology (IT) innovations, purpose of portfolios and their ability to engage faculty and students. A 21-question survey regarding portfolios was sent to the 141 LCME-accredited, US medical schools. The response rate was 50% (71/141); 47% of respondents (33/71) reported that their medical school used portfolios in some form. Of those, 7% reported the use of paper-based portfolios and 76% use electronic portfolios. Forty-five percent reported portfolio use for formative evaluation only; 48% for both formative and summative evaluation, and 3% for summative evaluation alone. Seventy-two percent developed a longitudinal, competency-based portfolio. The most common feature of portfolios was reflective writing (79%). Seventy-three percent allow access to the portfolio off-campus, 58% allow usage of tablets and mobile devices, and 9% involve social media within the portfolio. Eighty percent and 69% agreed that the portfolio engaged students and faculty, respectively. Ninety-seven percent reported that the portfolios used at their institution have room for improvement. While there is significant variation in the purpose and structure of portfolios in the medical schools surveyed, most schools using portfolios reported a high level of engagement with students and faculty.

Estimation of value at risk in currency exchange rate portfolio using asymmetric GJR-GARCH Copula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurrahmat, Mohamad Husein; Noviyanti, Lienda; Bachrudin, Achmad

2017-03-01

In this study, we discuss the problem in measuring the risk in a portfolio based on value at risk (VaR) using asymmetric GJR-GARCH Copula. The approach based on the consideration that the assumption of normality over time for the return can not be fulfilled, and there is non-linear correlation for dependent model structure among the variables that lead to the estimated VaR be inaccurate. Moreover, the leverage effect also causes the asymmetric effect of dynamic variance and shows the weakness of the GARCH models due to its symmetrical effect on conditional variance. Asymmetric GJR-GARCH models are used to filter the margins while the Copulas are used to link them together into a multivariate distribution. Then, we use copulas to construct flexible multivariate distributions with different marginal and dependence structure, which is led to portfolio joint distribution does not depend on the assumptions of normality and linear correlation. VaR obtained by the analysis with confidence level 95% is 0.005586. This VaR derived from the best Copula model, t-student Copula with marginal distribution of t distribution.

Financial Crisis: A New Measure for Risk of Pension Fund Portfolios

PubMed Central

Cadoni, Marinella; Melis, Roberta; Trudda, Alessandro

2015-01-01

It has been argued that pension funds should have limitations on their asset allocation, based on the risk profile of the different financial instruments available on the financial markets. This issue proves to be highly relevant at times of market crisis, when a regulation establishing limits to risk taking for pension funds could prevent defaults. In this paper we present a framework for evaluating the risk level of a single financial instrument or a portfolio. By assuming that the log asset returns can be described by a multifractional Brownian motion, we evaluate the risk using the time dependent Hurst parameter H(t) which models volatility. To provide a measure of the risk, we model the Hurst parameter with a random variable with mixture of beta distribution. We prove the efficacy of the methodology by implementing it on different risk level financial instruments and portfolios. PMID:26086529

Financial Crisis: A New Measure for Risk of Pension Fund Portfolios.

PubMed

Cadoni, Marinella; Melis, Roberta; Trudda, Alessandro

2015-01-01

It has been argued that pension funds should have limitations on their asset allocation, based on the risk profile of the different financial instruments available on the financial markets. This issue proves to be highly relevant at times of market crisis, when a regulation establishing limits to risk taking for pension funds could prevent defaults. In this paper we present a framework for evaluating the risk level of a single financial instrument or a portfolio. By assuming that the log asset returns can be described by a multifractional Brownian motion, we evaluate the risk using the time dependent Hurst parameter H(t) which models volatility. To provide a measure of the risk, we model the Hurst parameter with a random variable with mixture of beta distribution. We prove the efficacy of the methodology by implementing it on different risk level financial instruments and portfolios.

Turnover, account value and diversification of real traders: evidence of collective portfolio optimizing behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morton de Lachapelle, David; Challet, Damien

2010-07-01

Despite the availability of very detailed data on financial markets, agent-based modeling is hindered by the lack of information about real trader behavior. This makes it impossible to validate agent-based models, which are thus reverse-engineering attempts. This work is a contribution towards building a set of stylized facts about the traders themselves. Using the client database of Swissquote Bank SA, the largest online Swiss broker, we find empirical relationships between turnover, account values and the number of assets in which a trader is invested. A theory based on simple mean-variance portfolio optimization that crucially includes variable transaction costs is able to reproduce faithfully the observed behaviors. We finally argue that our results bring to light the collective ability of a population to construct a mean-variance portfolio that takes into account the structure of transaction costs.

Collective defence portfolios of ant hosts shift with social parasite pressure.

PubMed

Jongepier, Evelien; Kleeberg, Isabelle; Job, Sylwester; Foitzik, Susanne

2014-09-22

Host defences become increasingly costly as parasites breach successive lines of defence. Because selection favours hosts that successfully resist parasitism at the lowest possible cost, escalating coevolutionary arms races are likely to drive host defence portfolios towards ever more expensive strategies. We investigated the interplay between host defence portfolios and social parasite pressure by comparing 17 populations of two Temnothorax ant species. When successful, collective aggression not only prevents parasitation but also spares host colonies the cost of searching for and moving to a new nest site. However, once parasites breach the host's nest defence, host colonies should resort to flight as the more beneficial resistance strategy. We show that under low parasite pressure, host colonies more likely responded to an intruding Protomognathus americanus slavemaker with collective aggression, which prevented the slavemaker from escaping and potentially recruiting nest-mates. However, as parasite pressure increased, ant colonies of both host species became more likely to flee rather than to fight. We conclude that host defence portfolios shift consistently with social parasite pressure, which is in accordance with the degeneration of frontline defences and the evolution of subsequent anti-parasite strategies often invoked in hosts of brood parasites. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

A game-based decision support methodology for competitive systems design

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Briceno, Simon Ignacio

This dissertation describes the development of a game-based methodology that facilitates the exploration and selection of research and development (R&D) projects under uncertain competitive scenarios. The proposed method provides an approach that analyzes competitor positioning and formulates response strategies to forecast the impact of technical design choices on a project's market performance. A critical decision in the conceptual design phase of propulsion systems is the selection of the best architecture, centerline, core size, and technology portfolio. This selection can be challenging when considering evolving requirements from both the airframe manufacturing company and the airlines in the market. Furthermore, the exceedingly high cost of core architecture development and its associated risk makes this strategic architecture decision the most important one for an engine company. Traditional conceptual design processes emphasize performance and affordability as their main objectives. These areas alone however, do not provide decision-makers with enough information as to how successful their engine will be in a competitive market. A key objective of this research is to examine how firm characteristics such as their relative differences in completing R&D projects, differences in the degree of substitutability between different project types, and first/second-mover advantages affect their product development strategies. Several quantitative methods are investigated that analyze business and engineering strategies concurrently. In particular, formulations based on the well-established mathematical field of game theory are introduced to obtain insights into the project selection problem. The use of game theory is explored in this research as a method to assist the selection process of R&D projects in the presence of imperfect market information. The proposed methodology focuses on two influential factors: the schedule uncertainty of project completion times and the uncertainty associated with competitive reactions. A normal-form matrix is created to enumerate players, their moves and payoffs, and to formulate a process by which an optimal decision can be achieved. The non-cooperative model is tested using the concept of a Nash equilibrium to identify potential strategies that are robust to uncertain market fluctuations (e.g: uncertainty in airline demand, airframe requirements and competitor positioning). A first/second-mover advantage parameter is used as a scenario dial to adjust market rewards and firms' payoffs. The methodology is applied to a commercial aircraft engine selection study where engine firms must select an optimal engine project for development. An engine modeling and simulation framework is developed to generate a broad engine project portfolio. The creation of a customer value model enables designers to incorporate airline operation characteristics into the engine modeling and simulation process to improve the accuracy of engine/customer matching. Summary. Several key findings are made that provide recommendations on project selection strategies for firms uncertain as to when they will enter the market. The proposed study demonstrates that within a technical design environment, a rational and analytical means of modeling project development strategies is beneficial in high market risk situations.

Using logic models in a community-based agricultural injury prevention project.

PubMed

Helitzer, Deborah; Willging, Cathleen; Hathorn, Gary; Benally, Jeannie

2009-01-01

The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health has long promoted the logic model as a useful tool in an evaluator's portfolio. Because a logic model supports a systematic approach to designing interventions, it is equally useful for program planners. Undertaken with community stakeholders, a logic model process articulates the underlying foundations of a particular programmatic effort and enhances program design and evaluation. Most often presented as sequenced diagrams or flow charts, logic models demonstrate relationships among the following components: statement of a problem, various causal and mitigating factors related to that problem, available resources to address the problem, theoretical foundations of the selected intervention, intervention goals and planned activities, and anticipated short- and long-term outcomes. This article describes a case example of how a logic model process was used to help community stakeholders on the Navajo Nation conceive, design, implement, and evaluate agricultural injury prevention projects.

Has the Art College Entry Portfolio Outlived Its Usefulness as a Method of Selecting Students in an Age of Relational, Collective and Collaborative Art Practice?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Donoghue, Donal

2011-01-01

The purpose of this article is to invite focused discussion and critical debate about the instruments currently used to select students for art colleges in Europe and North America. At this time of significant expansion and diversification in practices of art making, we must ask if current selection instruments still work. What evidence is there…

Mathematical modelling of risk reduction in reinsurance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balashov, R. B.; Kryanev, A. V.; Sliva, D. E.

2017-01-01

The paper presents a mathematical model of efficient portfolio formation in the reinsurance markets. The presented approach provides the optimal ratio between the expected value of return and the risk of yield values below a certain level. The uncertainty in the return values is conditioned by use of expert evaluations and preliminary calculations, which result in expected return values and the corresponding risk levels. The proposed method allows for implementation of computationally simple schemes and algorithms for numerical calculation of the numerical structure of the efficient portfolios of reinsurance contracts of a given insurance company.

The effects of portfolio purchasing on a specialized subject collection.

PubMed

Murphy, Sarah Anne

2007-01-01

To examine the impact of portfolio purchasing on a small, highly specialized medical collection at The Ohio State University. In this citation analysis, cited references for articles published by faculty in the College of Veterinary Medicine between 2000 and 2004 were collected and analyzed to determine whether The Ohio State University Libraries provided print or electronic access to the publications cited or the publishers of the cited journals, and whether the university purchased a subscription to each journal or received the subscription through a consortium-sponsored portfolio purchasing agreement. Of the 419 journals veterinary faculty cited more than 10 times, only 13 (3.1%) were in Zone 1, and 63 (15.0%) were in Zone 2 of the Bradford distribution, a citation analysis model which demonstrates that a small number of journals account for the bulk of literature utilized in any established field. Of these, only 23 (5.5%) were procured through an OhioLINK or other consortium portfolio purchasing agreement. The costs of acquiring a publisher's portfolio, even through a consortium, should be balanced with the costs of purchasing content required to provide a balanced collection for all user populations.

The effects of portfolio purchasing on a specialized subject collection

PubMed Central

Murphy, Sarah Anne

2007-01-01

Objective: To examine the impact of portfolio purchasing on a small, highly specialized medical collection at The Ohio State University. Methodology: In this citation analysis, cited references for articles published by faculty in the College of Veterinary Medicine between 2000 and 2004 were collected and analyzed to determine whether The Ohio State University Libraries provided print or electronic access to the publications cited or the publishers of the cited journals, and whether the university purchased a subscription to each journal or received the subscription through a consortium-sponsored portfolio purchasing agreement. Results: Of the 419 journals veterinary faculty cited more than 10 times, only 13 (3.1%) were in Zone 1, and 63 (15.0%) were in Zone 2 of the Bradford distribution, a citation analysis model which demonstrates that a small number of journals account for the bulk of literature utilized in any established field. Of these, only 23 (5.5%) were procured through an OhioLINK or other consortium portfolio purchasing agreement. Discussion/Conclusion: The costs of acquiring a publisher's portfolio, even through a consortium, should be balanced with the costs of purchasing content required to provide a balanced collection for all user populations. PMID:17252061

Stochastic optimal control of ultradiffusion processes with application to dynamic portfolio management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marcozzi, Michael D.

2008-12-01

We consider theoretical and approximation aspects of the stochastic optimal control of ultradiffusion processes in the context of a prototype model for the selling price of a European call option. Within a continuous-time framework, the dynamic management of a portfolio of assets is effected through continuous or point control, activation costs, and phase delay. The performance index is derived from the unique weak variational solution to the ultraparabolic Hamilton-Jacobi equation; the value function is the optimal realization of the performance index relative to all feasible portfolios. An approximation procedure based upon a temporal box scheme/finite element method is analyzed; numerical examples are presented in order to demonstrate the viability of the approach.

Case studies of conservation plans that incorporate geodiversity.

PubMed

Anderson, M G; Comer, P J; Beier, P; Lawler, J J; Schloss, C A; Buttrick, S; Albano, C M; Faith, D P

2015-06-01

Geodiversity has been used as a surrogate for biodiversity when species locations are unknown, and this utility can be extended to situations where species locations are in flux. Recently, scientists have designed conservation networks that aim to explicitly represent the range of geophysical environments, identifying a network of physical stages that could sustain biodiversity while allowing for change in species composition in response to climate change. Because there is no standard approach to designing such networks, we compiled 8 case studies illustrating a variety of ways scientists have approached the challenge. These studies show how geodiversity has been partitioned and used to develop site portfolios and connectivity designs; how geodiversity-based portfolios compare with those derived from species and communities; and how the selection and combination of variables influences the results. Collectively, they suggest 4 key steps when using geodiversity to augment traditional biodiversity-based conservation planning: create land units from species-relevant variables combined in an ecologically meaningful way; represent land units in a logical spatial configuration and integrate with species locations when possible; apply selection criteria to individual sites to ensure they are appropriate for conservation; and develop connectivity among sites to maintain movements and processes. With these considerations, conservationists can design more effective site portfolios to ensure the lasting conservation of biodiversity under a changing climate. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Evaluating nursing administration instruments.

PubMed

Huber, D L; Maas, M; McCloskey, J; Scherb, C A; Goode, C J; Watson, C

2000-05-01

To identify and evaluate available measures that can be used to examine the effects of management innovations in five important areas: autonomy, conflict, job satisfaction, leadership, and organizational climate. Management interventions target the context in which care is delivered and through which evidence for practice diffuses. These innovations need to be evaluated for their effects on desired outcomes. However, busy nurses may not have the time to locate, evaluate, and select instruments to measure expected nursing administration outcomes without research-based guidance. Multiple and complex important contextual variables need psychometrically sound and easy-to-use measurement instruments identified for use in both practice and research. An expert focus group consensus methodology was used in this evaluation research to review available instruments in the five areas and evaluate which of these instruments are psychometrically sound and easy to use in the practice setting. The result is a portfolio of measures, clustered by concept and displayed on a spreadsheet. Retrieval information is provided. The portfolio includes the expert consensus judgment as well as useful descriptive information. The research reported here identifies psychometrically sound and easy-to-use instruments for measuring five key variables to be included in a portfolio. The results of this study can be used as a beginning for saving time in instrument selection and as an aid for determining the best instrument for measuring outcomes from a clinical or management intervention.

Airline Maintenance Manpower Optimization from the De Novo Perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liou, James J. H.; Tzeng, Gwo-Hshiung

Human resource management (HRM) is an important issue for today’s competitive airline marketing. In this paper, we discuss a multi-objective model designed from the De Novo perspective to help airlines optimize their maintenance manpower portfolio. The effectiveness of the model and solution algorithm is demonstrated in an empirical study of the optimization of the human resources needed for airline line maintenance. Both De Novo and traditional multiple objective programming (MOP) methods are analyzed. A comparison of the results with those of traditional MOP indicates that the proposed model and solution algorithm does provide better performance and an improved human resource portfolio.

Artificial bee colony algorithm for constrained possibilistic portfolio optimization problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Wei

2015-07-01

In this paper, we discuss the portfolio optimization problem with real-world constraints under the assumption that the returns of risky assets are fuzzy numbers. A new possibilistic mean-semiabsolute deviation model is proposed, in which transaction costs, cardinality and quantity constraints are considered. Due to such constraints the proposed model becomes a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem and traditional optimization methods fail to find the optimal solution efficiently. Thus, a modified artificial bee colony (MABC) algorithm is developed to solve the corresponding optimization problem. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and the corresponding algorithm.

How Family Status and Social Security Claiming Options Shape Optimal Life Cycle Portfolios

PubMed Central

Hubener, Andreas; Maurer, Raimond; Mitchell, Olivia S.

2017-01-01

We show how optimal household decisions regarding work, retirement, saving, portfolio allocations, and life insurance are shaped by the complex financial options embedded in U.S. Social Security rules and uncertain family transitions. Our life cycle model predicts sharp consumption drops on retirement, an age-62 peak in claiming rates, and earlier claiming by wives versus husbands and single women. Moreover, life insurance is mainly purchased on men’s lives. Our model, which takes Social Security rules seriously, generates wealth and retirement outcomes that are more consistent with the data, in contrast to earlier and less realistic models. PMID:28659659

The type k universal portfolio generated by the f-divergence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Choon Peng; Seng, Kuang Kee

2017-11-01

The logarithm of the estimated next-day wealth return is approximated by k terms of its Taylor series. The resulting Type k universal portfolio generated by the f -divergence is obtained. An implicit form of the portfolio is also obtained by exploiting the mean-value theorem. An empirical study of the performance of the portfolio is focused on the Type 2 Helmbold universal portfolio. A few generalizations of the Helmbold universal portfolio have recently been studied, namely the reverse Helmbold and the parametric Helmbold portfolios. This new type of portfolio can be regarded a contribution to the inventory of Helmbold related universal portfolios. It is verified experimentally that an investor's wealth can be significantly increased by using the Type 2 Helmbold portfolio in investment.

Curriculum-Referenced Test Development Workshop Series, Addendum to Workshops Two and Three: Using Portfolios in Instruction and Assessment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arter, Judith A.

An overview of the state of the art of using portfolios for assessment and instruction (AAI) and an annotated bibliography of articles focusing on portfolios are provided. Using portfolios for AAI has become a popular practice; however, portfolios are not always clearly defined. A working definition of portfolio is provided: a portfolio is a…

Business models and leadership styles in small medical device and bio-science businesses--examples in a region and their implications.

PubMed

Williams, D J; Hourd, P C

2004-01-01

This paper reviews the leadership styles and business models found in small technologically based businesses operating in the healthcare sector within one of the UK regions, the East Midlands. The most frequently encountered business model strands were 1) mixed economies: that fund development with service income; cross-sectoral product portfolios; and decoupled business portfolios led by a single entrepreneur and 2) scale sensitive "stay small" models including the avoidance of venture capital; "early exit"; and virtual business strands. There was found to be little correlation between leadership style and business model for the small number of businesses surveyed. The avoidance of venture capital is in direct contrast to adjacent regions.

Performance of salmon fishery portfolios across western North America.

PubMed

Griffiths, Jennifer R; Schindler, Daniel E; Armstrong, Jonathan B; Scheuerell, Mark D; Whited, Diane C; Clark, Robert A; Hilborn, Ray; Holt, Carrie A; Lindley, Steven T; Stanford, Jack A; Volk, Eric C

2014-12-01

Quantifying the variability in the delivery of ecosystem services across the landscape can be used to set appropriate management targets, evaluate resilience and target conservation efforts. Ecosystem functions and services may exhibit portfolio-type dynamics, whereby diversity within lower levels promotes stability at more aggregated levels. Portfolio theory provides a framework to characterize the relative performance among ecosystems and the processes that drive differences in performance. We assessed Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. portfolio performance across their native latitudinal range focusing on the reliability of salmon returns as a metric with which to assess the function of salmon ecosystems and their services to humans. We used the Sharpe ratio (e.g. the size of the total salmon return to the portfolio relative to its variability (risk)) to evaluate the performance of Chinook and sockeye salmon portfolios across the west coast of North America. We evaluated the effects on portfolio performance from the variance of and covariance among salmon returns within each portfolio, and the association between portfolio performance and watershed attributes. We found a positive latitudinal trend in the risk-adjusted performance of Chinook and sockeye salmon portfolios that also correlated negatively with anthropogenic impact on watersheds (e.g. dams and land-use change). High-latitude Chinook salmon portfolios were on average 2·5 times more reliable, and their portfolio risk was mainly due to low variance in the individual assets. Sockeye salmon portfolios were also more reliable at higher latitudes, but sources of risk varied among the highest performing portfolios. Synthesis and applications . Portfolio theory provides a straightforward method for characterizing the resilience of salmon ecosystems and their services. Natural variability in portfolio performance among undeveloped watersheds provides a benchmark for restoration efforts. Locally and regionally, assessing the sources of portfolio risk can guide actions to maintain existing resilience (protect habitat and disturbance regimes that maintain response diversity; employ harvest strategies sensitive to different portfolio components) or improve restoration activities. Improving our understanding of portfolio reliability may allow for management of natural resources that is robust to ongoing environmental change. Portfolio theory provides a straightforward method for characterizing the resilience of salmon ecosystems and their services. Natural variability in portfolio performance among undeveloped watersheds provides a benchmark for restoration efforts. Locally and regionally, assessing the sources of portfolio risk can guide actions to maintain existing resilience (protect habitat and disturbance regimes that maintain response diversity; employ harvest strategies sensitive to different portfolio components) or improve restoration activities. Improving our understanding of portfolio reliability may allow for management of natural resources that is robust to ongoing environmental change.

Performance of salmon fishery portfolios across western North America

PubMed Central

Griffiths, Jennifer R; Schindler, Daniel E; Armstrong, Jonathan B; Scheuerell, Mark D; Whited, Diane C; Clark, Robert A; Hilborn, Ray; Holt, Carrie A; Lindley, Steven T; Stanford, Jack A; Volk, Eric C

2014-01-01

Quantifying the variability in the delivery of ecosystem services across the landscape can be used to set appropriate management targets, evaluate resilience and target conservation efforts. Ecosystem functions and services may exhibit portfolio-type dynamics, whereby diversity within lower levels promotes stability at more aggregated levels. Portfolio theory provides a framework to characterize the relative performance among ecosystems and the processes that drive differences in performance. We assessed Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. portfolio performance across their native latitudinal range focusing on the reliability of salmon returns as a metric with which to assess the function of salmon ecosystems and their services to humans. We used the Sharpe ratio (e.g. the size of the total salmon return to the portfolio relative to its variability (risk)) to evaluate the performance of Chinook and sockeye salmon portfolios across the west coast of North America. We evaluated the effects on portfolio performance from the variance of and covariance among salmon returns within each portfolio, and the association between portfolio performance and watershed attributes. We found a positive latitudinal trend in the risk-adjusted performance of Chinook and sockeye salmon portfolios that also correlated negatively with anthropogenic impact on watersheds (e.g. dams and land-use change). High-latitude Chinook salmon portfolios were on average 2·5 times more reliable, and their portfolio risk was mainly due to low variance in the individual assets. Sockeye salmon portfolios were also more reliable at higher latitudes, but sources of risk varied among the highest performing portfolios. Synthesis and applications. Portfolio theory provides a straightforward method for characterizing the resilience of salmon ecosystems and their services. Natural variability in portfolio performance among undeveloped watersheds provides a benchmark for restoration efforts. Locally and regionally, assessing the sources of portfolio risk can guide actions to maintain existing resilience (protect habitat and disturbance regimes that maintain response diversity; employ harvest strategies sensitive to different portfolio components) or improve restoration activities. Improving our understanding of portfolio reliability may allow for management of natural resources that is robust to ongoing environmental change. Portfolio theory provides a straightforward method for characterizing the resilience of salmon ecosystems and their services. Natural variability in portfolio performance among undeveloped watersheds provides a benchmark for restoration efforts. Locally and regionally, assessing the sources of portfolio risk can guide actions to maintain existing resilience (protect habitat and disturbance regimes that maintain response diversity; employ harvest strategies sensitive to different portfolio components) or improve restoration activities. Improving our understanding of portfolio reliability may allow for management of natural resources that is robust to ongoing environmental change. PMID:25552746

Regionalized LCA-based optimization of building energy supply: method and case study for a Swiss municipality.

PubMed

Saner, Dominik; Vadenbo, Carl; Steubing, Bernhard; Hellweg, Stefanie

2014-07-01

This paper presents a regionalized LCA-based multiobjective optimization model of building energy demand and supply for the case of a Swiss municipality for the minimization of greenhouse gas emissions and particulate matter formation. The results show that the environmental improvement potential is very large: in the optimal case, greenhouse gas emissions from energy supply could be reduced by more than 75% and particulate emissions by over 50% in the municipality. This scenario supposes a drastic shift of heat supply systems from a fossil fuel dominated portfolio to a portfolio consisting of mainly heat pump and woodchip incineration systems. In addition to a change in heat supply technologies, roofs, windows and walls would need to be refurbished in more than 65% of the municipality's buildings. The full potential of the environmental impact reductions will hardly be achieved in reality, particularly in the short term, for example, because of financial constraints and social acceptance, which were not taken into account in this study. Nevertheless, the results of the optimization model can help policy makers to identify the most effective measures for improvement at the decision making level, for example, at the building level for refurbishment and selection of heating systems or at the municipal level for designing district heating networks. Therefore, this work represents a starting point for designing effective incentives to reduce the environmental impact of buildings. While the results of the optimization model are specific to the municipality studied, the model could readily be adapted to other regions.

Coupling Modern Portfolio Theory and Marxan enhances the efficiency of Lesser White-fronted Goose's (Anser erythropus) habitat conservation.

PubMed

Liang, Jie; Gao, Xiang; Zeng, Guangming; Hua, Shanshan; Zhong, Minzhou; Li, Xiaodong; Li, Xin

2018-01-09

Climate change and human activities cause uncertain changes to species biodiversity by altering their habitat. The uncertainty of climate change requires planners to balance the benefit and cost of making conservation plan. Here optimal protection approach for Lesser White-fronted Goose (LWfG) by coupling Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) and Marxan selection were proposed. MPT was used to provide suggested weights of investment for protected area (PA) and reduce the influence of climatic uncertainty, while Marxan was utilized to choose a series of specific locations for PA. We argued that through combining these two commonly used techniques with the conservation plan, including assets allocation and PA chosing, the efficiency of rare bird's protection would be enhanced. In MPT analyses, the uncertainty of conservation-outcome can be reduced while conservation effort was allocated in Hunan, Jiangxi and Yangtze River delta. In Marxan model, the optimal location for habitat restorations based on existing nature reserve was identified. Clear priorities for the location and allocation of assets could be provided based on this research, and it could help decision makers to build conservation strategy for LWfG.

Optimizing cropland cover for stable food production in Sub-Saharan Africa using simulated yield and Modern Portfolio Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bodin, P.; Olin, S.; Pugh, T. A. M.; Arneth, A.

2014-12-01

Food security can be defined as stable access to food of good nutritional quality. In Sub Saharan Africa access to food is strongly linked to local food production and the capacity to generate enough calories to sustain the local population. Therefore it is important in these regions to generate not only sufficiently high yields but also to reduce interannual variability in food production. Traditionally, climate impact simulation studies have focused on factors that underlie maximum productivity ignoring the variability in yield. By using Modern Portfolio Theory, a method stemming from economics, we here calculate optimum current and future crop selection that maintain current yield while minimizing variance, vs. maintaining variance while maximizing yield. Based on simulated yield using the LPJ-GUESS dynamic vegetation model, the results show that current cropland distribution for many crops is close to these optimum distributions. Even so, the optimizations displayed substantial potential to either increase food production and/or to decrease its variance regionally. Our approach can also be seen as a method to create future scenarios for the sown areas of crops in regions where local food production is important for food security.

Current status and perspectives of interventional clinical trials for glioblastoma - analysis of ClinicalTrials.gov.

PubMed

Cihoric, Nikola; Tsikkinis, Alexandros; Minniti, Giuseppe; Lagerwaard, Frank J; Herrlinger, Ulrich; Mathier, Etienne; Soldatovic, Ivan; Jeremic, Branislav; Ghadjar, Pirus; Elicin, Olgun; Lössl, Kristina; Aebersold, Daniel M; Belka, Claus; Herrmann, Evelyn; Niyazi, Maximilian

2017-01-03

The records of 208.777 (100%) clinical trials registered at ClinicalTrials.gov were downloaded on the 19th of February 2016. Phase II and III trials including patients with glioblastoma were selected for further classification and analysis. Based on the disease settings, trials were classified into three groups: newly diagnosed glioblastoma, recurrent disease and trials with no differentiation according to disease setting. Furthermore, we categorized trials according to the experimental interventions, the primary sponsor, the source of financial support and trial design elements. Trends were evaluated using the autoregressive integrated moving average model. Two hundred sixteen (0.1%) trials were selected for further analysis. Academic centers (investigator initiated trials) were recorded as primary sponsors in 56.9% of trials, followed by industry 25.9%. Industry was the leading source of monetary support for the selected trials in 44.4%, followed by 25% of trials with primarily academic financial support. The number of newly initiated trials between 2005 and 2015 shows a positive trend, mainly through an increase in phase II trials, whereas phase III trials show a negative trend. The vast majority of trials evaluate forms of different systemic treatments (91.2%). In total, one hundred different molecular entities or biologicals were identified. Of those, 60% were involving drugs specifically designed for central nervous system malignancies. Trials that specifically address radiotherapy, surgery, imaging and other therapeutic or diagnostic methods appear to be rare. Current research in glioblastoma is mainly driven or sponsored by industry, academic medical oncologists and neuro-oncologists, with the majority of trials evaluating forms of systemic therapies. Few trials reach phase III. Imaging, radiation therapy and surgical procedures are underrepresented in current trials portfolios. Optimization in research portfolio for glioblastoma is needed.

Assessing Zambia's industrial fortification options: getting beyond changes in prevalence and cost-effectiveness.

PubMed

Fiedler, John L; Lividini, Keith; Kabaghe, Gladys; Zulu, Rodah; Tehinse, John; Bermudez, Odilia I; Jallier, Vincent; Guyondet, Christophe

2013-12-01

Background. Since fortification of sugar with vitamin A was mandated in 1998, Zambia's fortification program has not changed, while the country remains plagued by high rates ofmicronutrient deficiencies. Objective. To provide evidence-based fortification options with the hope of reinvigorating the Zambian fortification program. Methods. Zambia's 2006 Living Conditions Monitoring Survey is used to estimate the apparent intakes of vitamin A, iron, and zinc, as well as the apparent consumption levels and coverage of four fortification vehicles. Fourteen alternativefoodfortification portfolios are modeled, and their costs, impacts, average cost-effectiveness, and incremental cost-effectiveness are calculated using three alternative impact measures. Results. Alternative impact measures result in different rank orderings of the portfolios. The most cost-effective portfolio is vegetable oil, which has a cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) saved ranging from 12% to 25% of that of sugar, depending on the impact measure used. The public health impact of fortified vegetable oil, however, is relatively modest. Additional criteria beyond cost-effectiveness are introduced and used to rank order the portfolios. The size of the public health impact, the total cost, and the incremental cost-effectiveness of phasing in multiple vehicle portfolios over time are analyzed. Conclusions. Assessing fortification portfolios by measuring changes in the prevalence of inadequate intakes underestimates impact. A more sensitive measure, which also takes into account change in the Estimated Average Requirement (EAR) gap, is provided by a dose-response-based approach to estimating the number ofDALYs saved. There exist highly cost-effective fortification intervention portfolios with substantial public health impacts and variable price tags that could help improve Zambians' nutrition status.

Numerical approach to optimal portfolio in a power utility regime-switching model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gyulov, Tihomir B.; Koleva, Miglena N.; Vulkov, Lubin G.

2017-12-01

We consider a system of weakly coupled degenerate semi-linear parabolic equations of optimal portfolio in a regime-switching with power utility function, derived by A.R. Valdez and T. Vargiolu [14]. First, we discuss some basic properties of the solution of this system. Then, we develop and analyze implicit-explicit, flux limited finite difference schemes for the differential problem. Numerical experiments are discussed.

Household portfolio choices, health status and health care systems: A cross-country analysis based on SHARE

PubMed Central

Atella, Vincenzo; Brunetti, Marianna; Maestas, Nicole

2013-01-01

Health risk is increasingly viewed as an important form of background risk that affects household portfolio decisions. However, its role might be mediated by the presence of a protective full-coverage national health service that could reduce households’ probability of incurring current and future out-of-pocket medical expenditures. We use SHARE data to study the influence of current health status and future health risk on the decision to hold risky assets, across ten European countries with different health systems, each offering a different degree of protection against out-of-pocket medical expenditures. We find robust empirical evidence that perceived health status matters more than objective health status and, consistent with the theory of background risk, health risk affects portfolio choices only in countries with less protective health care systems. Furthermore, portfolio decisions consistent with background risk models are observed only with respect to middle-aged and highly-educated investors. PMID:23885134

Modeling and using a web-based and tutored portfolio to support certification of professional competence in transfusion medicine

PubMed Central

Staccini, Pascal; Rouger, Philippe

2008-01-01

In order to manage a nationwide assessment program leading to certification of professional competence in blood transfusion throughout France, the National Institute of Blood Transfusion (INTS) and the University of Nice-Sophia Antipolis designed and developed a structured and tutored web-based portfolio. The entire process of certification has been approved by the national healthcare agency (HAS). Eleven assessment programs have been written. The structure of this e-portfolio is based on a matrix of actions defined according to standards of practice. For each action, elements of proof are uploaded by the physician and peer-reviewed by an expert (a tutor) before validation. The electronic portfolio stores all the history of the actions performed by users. This tracking feature generates alerts which are e-mailed to users (physicians and tutors) according to a list of monitored events. After one year of design and development, the application is now being used routinely. PMID:18999167

Learning through a portfolio of carbon capture and storage demonstration projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reiner, David M.

2016-01-01

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology is considered by many to be an essential route to meet climate mitigation targets in the power and industrial sectors. Deploying CCS technologies globally will first require a portfolio of large-scale demonstration projects. These first projects should assist learning by diversity, learning by replication, de-risking the technologies and developing viable business models. From 2005 to 2009, optimism about the pace of CCS rollout led to mutually independent efforts in the European Union, North America and Australia to assemble portfolios of projects. Since 2009, only a few of these many project proposals remain viable, but the initial rationales for demonstration have not been revisited in the face of changing circumstances. Here I argue that learning is now both more difficult and more important given the slow pace of deployment. Developing a more coordinated global portfolio will facilitate learning across projects and may determine whether CCS ever emerges from the demonstration phase.

Peer Review of Submissions to the Annual American Evaluation Association Conference by the Graduate Student & New Evaluators Topical Interest Group

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schroter, Daniela C.; Coryn, Chris L. S.; Montrosse, Bianca E.

2008-01-01

Peer review is an umbrella term that refers to a class of selection and oversight practices, including the familiar mechanisms of the review of proposals submitted for funding, of manuscripts for scholarly publications, and of personnel qualifications and portfolios for selection and promotion. Peer review has long been a cornerstone of modern…

System dynamic modelling to assess economic viability and risk trade-offs for ecological restoration in South Africa.

PubMed

Crookes, D J; Blignaut, J N; de Wit, M P; Esler, K J; Le Maitre, D C; Milton, S J; Mitchell, S A; Cloete, J; de Abreu, P; Fourie nee Vlok, H; Gull, K; Marx, D; Mugido, W; Ndhlovu, T; Nowell, M; Pauw, M; Rebelo, A

2013-05-15

Can markets assist by providing support for ecological restoration, and if so, under what conditions? The first step in addressing this question is to develop a consistent methodology for economic evaluation of ecological restoration projects. A risk analysis process was followed in which a system dynamics model was constructed for eight diverse case study sites where ecological restoration is currently being pursued. Restoration costs vary across each of these sites, as do the benefits associated with restored ecosystem functioning. The system dynamics model simulates the ecological, hydrological and economic benefits of ecological restoration and informs a portfolio mapping exercise where payoffs are matched against the likelihood of success of a project, as well as a number of other factors (such as project costs and risk measures). This is the first known application that couples ecological restoration with system dynamics and portfolio mapping. The results suggest an approach that is able to move beyond traditional indicators of project success, since the effect of discounting is virtually eliminated. We conclude that systems dynamic modelling with portfolio mapping can guide decisions on when markets for restoration activities may be feasible. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preparedness Portfolios and Portfolio Studios

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Turns, Jennifer; Sattler, Brook; Eliot, Matt; Kilgore, Deborah; Mobrand, Kathryn

2012-01-01

We live in a time of great enthusiasm for the role that e-Portfolios can play in education and a time of exploration in which educators and researchers are investigating different approaches to using ePortfolios to differentially support educational goals. In this paper, we focus on preparedness portfolios and portfolio studios as two key…

A stochastic model for optimizing composite predictors based on gene expression profiles.

PubMed

Ramanathan, Murali

2003-07-01

This project was done to develop a mathematical model for optimizing composite predictors based on gene expression profiles from DNA arrays and proteomics. The problem was amenable to a formulation and solution analogous to the portfolio optimization problem in mathematical finance: it requires the optimization of a quadratic function subject to linear constraints. The performance of the approach was compared to that of neighborhood analysis using a data set containing cDNA array-derived gene expression profiles from 14 multiple sclerosis patients receiving intramuscular inteferon-beta1a. The Markowitz portfolio model predicts that the covariance between genes can be exploited to construct an efficient composite. The model predicts that a composite is not needed for maximizing the mean value of a treatment effect: only a single gene is needed, but the usefulness of the effect measure may be compromised by high variability. The model optimized the composite to yield the highest mean for a given level of variability or the least variability for a given mean level. The choices that meet this optimization criteria lie on a curve of composite mean vs. composite variability plot referred to as the "efficient frontier." When a composite is constructed using the model, it outperforms the composite constructed using the neighborhood analysis method. The Markowitz portfolio model may find potential applications in constructing composite biomarkers and in the pharmacogenomic modeling of treatment effects derived from gene expression endpoints.

A ubiquitous reflective e-portfolio architecture.

PubMed

Forte, Marcos; de Souza, Wanderley L; da Silva, Roseli F; do Prado, Antonio F; Rodrigues, Jose F

2013-11-01

In nurse and in medicine courses, the use of reflective portfolios as a pedagogical tool is becoming a common practice; in the last years, this practice has gradually migrated from paper-based to electronic-based portfolios. Current approaches for reflective e-portfolios, however, do not widely operate at outdoor sites, where data networks are limited or nonexistent. Considering that many of the activities related to nurse and medicine courses relate to professional practices conducted in such conditions, these network shortcomings restrict the adoption of e-portfolios. The present study describes the requirements specification, design, implementation, and evaluation of the Ubiquitous Reflective E-Portfolio Architecture, a solution proposed to support the development of systems based on mobile and wired access for both online and offline operation. We have implemented a prototype named Professional Practice Module to evaluate the Ubiquitous Reflective E-Portfolio Architecture; the module was based on requirements observed during the professional practice, the paper-based portfolio in use, and related learning meetings in the Medicine Course of a Brazilian University. The evaluation of the system was carried out with a learning group of 2nd year students of the medicine course, who answered to extensive evaluation questionnaires. The prototype proved to be operational in the activities of the professional practice of the Medicine Course object of the study, including homework tasks, patient care, data sharing, and learning meetings. It also demonstrated to be versatile with respect to the availability of the computer network that, many times, was not accessible. Moreover, the students considered the module useful and easy to use, but pointed out difficulties about the keyboard and the display sizes of the netbook devices, and about their operational system. Lastly, most of the students declared preference for the electronic Professional Practice Module in internal and in group activities, and for the paper-based version while in patient attendance. There is evidence that the environment where the professional practice takes place influences the usage of the e-portfolio. Mobile devices were able to support students in their professional practice; however, these devices present characteristics that must be judiciously selected, otherwise, they may limit the execution of important tasks. The main shortcoming identified during the evaluation tests was about the use of the module, and of the access device, during patient attendance. For this reason, we have envisioned a new version of the Professional Practice Module that shall follow a twofold requisite: by one side, it will include all the features of the module, to be used at the university or in the students' homes; from the other side, it will include only the features that are essential for the practice of patient attendance. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An application of almost marginal conditional stochastic dominance (AMCSD) on forming efficient portfolios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slamet, Isnandar; Mardiana Putri Carissa, Siska; Pratiwi, Hasih

2017-10-01

Investors always seek an efficient portfolio which is a portfolio that has a maximum return on specific risk or minimal risk on specific return. Almost marginal conditional stochastic dominance (AMCSD) criteria can be used to form the efficient portfolio. The aim of this research is to apply the AMCSD criteria to form an efficient portfolio of bank shares listed in the LQ-45. This criteria is used when there are areas that do not meet the criteria of marginal conditional stochastic dominance (MCSD). On the other words, this criteria can be derived from quotient of areas that violate the MCSD criteria with the area that violate and not violate the MCSD criteria. Based on the data bank stocks listed on LQ-45, it can be stated that there are 38 efficient portfolios of 420 portfolios where each portfolio comprises of 4 stocks and 315 efficient portfolios of 1710 portfolios with each of portfolio has 3 stocks.

Structural Models that Manage IT Portfolio Affecting Business Value of Enterprise Architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamogawa, Takaaki

This paper examines the structural relationships between Information Technology (IT) governance and Enterprise Architecture (EA), with the objective of enhancing business value in the enterprise society. Structural models consisting of four related hypotheses reveal the relationship between IT governance and EA in the improvement of business values. We statistically examined the hypotheses by analyzing validated questionnaire items from respondents within firms listed on the Japanese stock exchange who were qualified to answer them. We concluded that firms which have organizational ability controlled by IT governance are more likely to deliver business value based on IT portfolio management.

Replica Analysis for Portfolio Optimization with Single-Factor Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shinzato, Takashi

2017-06-01

In this paper, we use replica analysis to investigate the influence of correlation among the return rates of assets on the solution of the portfolio optimization problem. We consider the behavior of an optimal solution for the case where the return rate is described with a single-factor model and compare the findings obtained from our proposed methods with correlated return rates with those obtained with independent return rates. We then analytically assess the increase in the investment risk when correlation is included. Furthermore, we also compare our approach with analytical procedures for minimizing the investment risk from operations research.

Portfolio use and practices in US colleges and schools of pharmacy.

PubMed

Skrabal, Maryann Z; Turner, Paul D; Jones, Rhonda M; Tilleman, Jennifer A; Coover, Kelli L

2012-04-10

To identify the prevalence of portfolio use in US pharmacy programs, common components of portfolios, and advantages of and limitations to using portfolios. A cross-sectional electronic survey instrument was sent to experiential coordinators at US colleges and schools of pharmacy to collect data on portfolio content, methods, training and resource requirements, and benefits and challenges of portfolio use. Most colleges and schools of pharmacy (61.8%) use portfolios in experiential courses and the majority (67.1%) formally assess them, but there is wide variation regarding content and assessment. The majority of respondents used student portfolios as a formative evaluation primarily in the experiential curriculum. Although most colleges and schools of pharmacy have a portfolio system in place, few are using them to fulfill accreditation requirements. Colleges and schools need to carefully examine the intended purpose of their portfolio system and follow-through with implementation and maintenance of a system that meets their goals.

BBN-Based Portfolio Risk Assessment for NASA Technology R&D Outcome

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geuther, Steven C.; Shih, Ann T.

2016-01-01

The NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) vision falls into six strategic thrusts that are aimed to support the challenges of the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). In order to achieve the goals of the ARMD vision, the Airspace Operations and Safety Program (AOSP) is committed to developing and delivering new technologies. To meet the dual challenges of constrained resources and timely technology delivery, program portfolio risk assessment is critical for communication and decision-making. This paper describes how Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) is applied to assess the probability of a technology meeting the expected outcome. The network takes into account the different risk factors of technology development and implementation phases. The use of BBNs allows for all technologies of projects in a program portfolio to be separately examined and compared. In addition, the technology interaction effects are modeled through the application of object-oriented BBNs. The paper discusses the development of simplified project risk BBNs and presents various risk results. The results presented include the probability of project risks not meeting success criteria, the risk drivers under uncertainty via sensitivity analysis, and what-if analysis. Finally, the paper shows how program portfolio risk can be assessed using risk results from BBNs of projects in the portfolio.

Using Continuing Professional Development with Portfolio in a Pharmaceutics Course.

PubMed

Schneider, Jennifer; O'Hara, Kate; Munro, Irene

2016-11-07

The introduction of Continuing Professional Development (CPD) to encourage individual life-long learning as a way of maintaining professional competency in pharmacy has faced resistance. To investigate ways to address this barrier we included CPD with portfolio in a university Pharmaceutics course. Underpinning knowledge for the course was delivered using a flipped classroom approach and students used the CPD model to address clinical scenarios presented in a simulated pharmacy setting. Students produced portfolio items for the different case scenarios and submitted these for assessment. This provided the opportunity for students to carry out repeated application of the CPD cycle and, in so doing, develop skills in critical thinking for self-reflection and self-evaluation. This course was designed to encourage the development of higher level learning skills for future self-directed learning. Thirty six students submitted a completed portfolio. Twenty nine students achieved a result of >70%, five students scored between 57%-69%, one student obtained a mark of 50% and one student failed. The end of course survey revealed that while students found portfolio development challenging (40%), they also reported that it was effective for self-learning (54%). Differentiating between the concepts "reflection" and "evaluation" in CPD was problematic for some students and the use of clearer, simpler language should be used to explain these processes in future CPD work.

The use of integer programming to select bulls across breeding companies with volume price discounts.

PubMed

McConnel, M B; Galligan, D T

2004-10-01

Optimization programs are currently used to aid in the selection of bulls to be used in herd breeding programs. While these programs offer a systematic approach to the problem of semen selection, they ignore the impact of volume discounts. Volume discounts are discounts that vary depending on the number of straws purchased. The dynamic nature of volume discounts means that, in order to be adequately accounted for, they must be considered in the optimization routine. Failing to do this creates a missed economic opportunity because the potential benefits of optimally selecting and combining breeding company discount opportunities are not captured. To address these issues, an integer program was created which used binary decision variables to incorporate the effects of quantity discounts into the optimization program. A consistent set of trait criteria was used to select a group of bulls from 3 sample breeding companies. Three different selection programs were used to select the bulls, 2 traditional methods and the integer method. After the discounts were applied using each method, the integer program resulted in the lowest cost portfolio of bulls. A sensitivity analysis showed that the integer program also resulted in a low cost portfolio when the genetic trait goals were changed to be more or less stringent. In the sample application, a net benefit of the new approach over the traditional approaches was a 12.3 to 20.0% savings in semen cost.

Interdependence between Greece and other European stock markets: A comparison of wavelet and VMD copula, and the portfolio implications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain; Kumar, Ronald Ravinesh; Ali, Sajid; Ameer, Saba

2016-09-01

The interdependence of Greece and other European stock markets and the subsequent portfolio implications are examined in wavelet and variational mode decomposition domain. In applying the decomposition techniques, we analyze the structural properties of data and distinguish between short and long term dynamics of stock market returns. First, the GARCH-type models are fitted to obtain the standardized residuals. Next, different copula functions are evaluated, and based on the conventional information criteria and time varying parameter, Joe-Clayton copula is chosen to model the tail dependence between the stock markets. The short-run lower tail dependence time paths show a sudden increase in comovement during the global financial crises. The results of the long-run dependence suggest that European stock markets have higher interdependence with Greece stock market. Individual country's Value at Risk (VaR) separates the countries into two distinct groups. Finally, the two-asset portfolio VaR measures provide potential markets for Greece stock market investment diversification.

Problems of Mathematical Finance by Stochastic Control Methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stettner, Łukasz

The purpose of this paper is to present main ideas of mathematics of finance using the stochastic control methods. There is an interplay between stochastic control and mathematics of finance. On the one hand stochastic control is a powerful tool to study financial problems. On the other hand financial applications have stimulated development in several research subareas of stochastic control in the last two decades. We start with pricing of financial derivatives and modeling of asset prices, studying the conditions for the absence of arbitrage. Then we consider pricing of defaultable contingent claims. Investments in bonds lead us to the term structure modeling problems. Special attention is devoted to historical static portfolio analysis called Markowitz theory. We also briefly sketch dynamic portfolio problems using viscosity solutions to Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, martingale-convex analysis method or stochastic maximum principle together with backward stochastic differential equation. Finally, long time portfolio analysis for both risk neutral and risk sensitive functionals is introduced.

Aspect-Oriented Model-Driven Software Product Line Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groher, Iris; Voelter, Markus

Software product line engineering aims to reduce development time, effort, cost, and complexity by taking advantage of the commonality within a portfolio of similar products. The effectiveness of a software product line approach directly depends on how well feature variability within the portfolio is implemented and managed throughout the development lifecycle, from early analysis through maintenance and evolution. This article presents an approach that facilitates variability implementation, management, and tracing by integrating model-driven and aspect-oriented software development. Features are separated in models and composed of aspect-oriented composition techniques on model level. Model transformations support the transition from problem to solution space models. Aspect-oriented techniques enable the explicit expression and modularization of variability on model, template, and code level. The presented concepts are illustrated with a case study of a home automation system.

Self-consistent asset pricing models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malevergne, Y.; Sornette, D.

2007-08-01

We discuss the foundations of factor or regression models in the light of the self-consistency condition that the market portfolio (and more generally the risk factors) is (are) constituted of the assets whose returns it is (they are) supposed to explain. As already reported in several articles, self-consistency implies correlations between the return disturbances. As a consequence, the alphas and betas of the factor model are unobservable. Self-consistency leads to renormalized betas with zero effective alphas, which are observable with standard OLS regressions. When the conditions derived from internal consistency are not met, the model is necessarily incomplete, which means that some sources of risk cannot be replicated (or hedged) by a portfolio of stocks traded on the market, even for infinite economies. Analytical derivations and numerical simulations show that, for arbitrary choices of the proxy which are different from the true market portfolio, a modified linear regression holds with a non-zero value αi at the origin between an asset i's return and the proxy's return. Self-consistency also introduces “orthogonality” and “normality” conditions linking the betas, alphas (as well as the residuals) and the weights of the proxy portfolio. Two diagnostics based on these orthogonality and normality conditions are implemented on a basket of 323 assets which have been components of the S&P500 in the period from January 1990 to February 2005. These two diagnostics show interesting departures from dynamical self-consistency starting about 2 years before the end of the Internet bubble. Assuming that the CAPM holds with the self-consistency condition, the OLS method automatically obeys the resulting orthogonality and normality conditions and therefore provides a simple way to self-consistently assess the parameters of the model by using proxy portfolios made only of the assets which are used in the CAPM regressions. Finally, the factor decomposition with the self-consistency condition derives a risk-factor decomposition in the multi-factor case which is identical to the principal component analysis (PCA), thus providing a direct link between model-driven and data-driven constructions of risk factors. This correspondence shows that PCA will therefore suffer from the same limitations as the CAPM and its multi-factor generalization, namely lack of out-of-sample explanatory power and predictability. In the multi-period context, the self-consistency conditions force the betas to be time-dependent with specific constraints.

The Application of Portfolios to Assess Progress in Writing of EFL Students at Secondary Schools in Banda Aceh

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eridafithri

2015-01-01

Portfolios are one of the alternatives that can be used for writing assessment. Portfolios are not common in the curriculum. The lack of dissemination to language teachers have made portfolios disregarded. In order to encourage teachers to use portfolios for assessment of writing, they need to have adequate information about portfolios, how they…

Strategic Planning and the Marketing Process: Library Applications.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wood, Elizabeth J.

1983-01-01

Illustrates how basic principles of marketing and strategic market planning can be applied to libraries and discusses some concepts of strategic planning (organization mission, objectives and goals, growth strategy, program portfolio plan) and marketing (opportunity analysis, target market selection, marketing mix strategy, marketing systems…

Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency: Key Factors Drive Transition of Technologies, but Better Training and Data Dissemination Can Increase Success

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-11-01

more detail. Table 1: Overview of DARPA Programs Selected for GAO Case Study Analyses Program name Program description Advanced Wireless Networks ...Selected DARPA Programs Program name According to DARPA portfolio-level database According to GAO analysis Advanced Wireless Networks for the Soldier...with potential transition partners Achievement of clearly defined technical goals Successful transition Advanced Wireless Networks for Soldier

Students' attitudes towards the introduction of a Personal and Professional Development portfolio: potential barriers and facilitators.

PubMed

Ross, Sarah; Maclachlan, Alison; Cleland, Jennifer

2009-12-01

Portfolios, widely used in undergraduate and postgraduate medicine, have variable purposes, formats and success. A recent systematic review summarised factors necessary for successful portfolio introduction but there are no studies investigating the views of students inexperienced in portfolio use towards portfolio learning. This study's aim was to survey student views about a prospective Professional and Personal Development (PPD) portfolio. This was a qualitative, focus group study. All focus groups were taped and transcribed verbatim, and anonymised. The transcripts were analysed inductively, using framework analysis. Four focus groups were carried out with 32 undergraduate medical students naïve in portfolio use. Three themes relevant to portfolio introduction emerged. The first theme was the need for clear information and support for portfolio introduction, and anxieties about how this could be supported effectively. The second was that students had negative views about reflective learning and whether this could be taught and assessed, believing formal assessment could foster socially acceptable content. The third was that participants revealed little understanding of reflective learning and its potential benefits. Rather portfolios were seen as useful for concrete purposes (e.g., job applications) not intrinsic benefits. Undergraduate medical students without experience of portfolios are anxious about portfolio introduction. They require support in developing reflective learning skills. Care must be taken to ensure students do not see portfolios as merely yet another assessment hurdle.

78 FR 21045 - Confirmation, Portfolio Reconciliation, Portfolio Compression, and Swap Trading Relationship...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-04-09

... COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION 17 CFR Part 23 RIN 3038-AC96 Confirmation, Portfolio Reconciliation, Portfolio Compression, and Swap Trading Relationship Documentation Requirements for Swap Dealers..., portfolio compression, and swap trading relationship documentation for Swap Dealers and Major Swap...

Evaluating Practice-Based Learning and Improvement: Efforts to Improve Acceptance of Portfolios

PubMed Central

Fragneto, Regina Y.; DiLorenzo, Amy Noel; Schell, Randall M.; Bowe, Edwin A.

2010-01-01

Introduction The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) recommends resident portfolios as 1 method for assessing competence in practice-based learning and improvement. In July 2005, when anesthesiology residents in our department were required to start a portfolio, the residents and their faculty advisors did not readily accept this new requirement. Intensive education efforts addressing the goals and importance of portfolios were undertaken. We hypothesized that these educational efforts improved acceptance of the portfolio and retrospectively audited the portfolio evaluation forms completed by faculty advisors. Methods Intensive education about the goals and importance of portfolios began in January 2006, including presentations at departmental conferences and one-on-one education sessions. Faculty advisors were instructed to evaluate each resident's portfolio and complete a review form. We retrospectively collected data to determine the percentage of review forms completed by faculty. The portfolio reviews also assessed the percentage of 10 required portfolio components residents had completed. Results Portfolio review forms were completed by faculty advisors for 13% (5/38) of residents during the first advisor-advisee meeting in December 2005. Initiation of intensive education efforts significantly improved compliance, with review forms completed for 68% (26/38) of residents in May 2006 (P < .0001) and 95% (36/38) in December 2006 (P < .0001). Residents also significantly improved the completeness of portfolios between May and December of 2006. Discussion Portfolios are considered a best methods technique by the ACGME for evaluation of practice-based learning and improvment. We have found that intensive education about the goals and importance of portfolios can enhance acceptance of this evaluation tool, resulting in improved compliance in completion and evaluation of portfolios. PMID:22132291

Evaluating practice-based learning and improvement: efforts to improve acceptance of portfolios.

PubMed

Fragneto, Regina Y; Dilorenzo, Amy Noel; Schell, Randall M; Bowe, Edwin A

2010-12-01

The Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education (ACGME) recommends resident portfolios as 1 method for assessing competence in practice-based learning and improvement. In July 2005, when anesthesiology residents in our department were required to start a portfolio, the residents and their faculty advisors did not readily accept this new requirement. Intensive education efforts addressing the goals and importance of portfolios were undertaken. We hypothesized that these educational efforts improved acceptance of the portfolio and retrospectively audited the portfolio evaluation forms completed by faculty advisors. Intensive education about the goals and importance of portfolios began in January 2006, including presentations at departmental conferences and one-on-one education sessions. Faculty advisors were instructed to evaluate each resident's portfolio and complete a review form. We retrospectively collected data to determine the percentage of review forms completed by faculty. The portfolio reviews also assessed the percentage of 10 required portfolio components residents had completed. Portfolio review forms were completed by faculty advisors for 13% (5/38) of residents during the first advisor-advisee meeting in December 2005. Initiation of intensive education efforts significantly improved compliance, with review forms completed for 68% (26/38) of residents in May 2006 (P < .0001) and 95% (36/38) in December 2006 (P < .0001). Residents also significantly improved the completeness of portfolios between May and December of 2006. Portfolios are considered a best methods technique by the ACGME for evaluation of practice-based learning and improvment. We have found that intensive education about the goals and importance of portfolios can enhance acceptance of this evaluation tool, resulting in improved compliance in completion and evaluation of portfolios.

Stochastic search, optimization and regression with energy applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hannah, Lauren A.

Designing clean energy systems will be an important task over the next few decades. One of the major roadblocks is a lack of mathematical tools to economically evaluate those energy systems. However, solutions to these mathematical problems are also of interest to the operations research and statistical communities in general. This thesis studies three problems that are of interest to the energy community itself or provide support for solution methods: R&D portfolio optimization, nonparametric regression and stochastic search with an observable state variable. First, we consider the one stage R&D portfolio optimization problem to avoid the sequential decision process associated with the multi-stage. The one stage problem is still difficult because of a non-convex, combinatorial decision space and a non-convex objective function. We propose a heuristic solution method that uses marginal project values---which depend on the selected portfolio---to create a linear objective function. In conjunction with the 0-1 decision space, this new problem can be solved as a knapsack linear program. This method scales well to large decision spaces. We also propose an alternate, provably convergent algorithm that does not exploit problem structure. These methods are compared on a solid oxide fuel cell R&D portfolio problem. Next, we propose Dirichlet Process mixtures of Generalized Linear Models (DPGLM), a new method of nonparametric regression that accommodates continuous and categorical inputs, and responses that can be modeled by a generalized linear model. We prove conditions for the asymptotic unbiasedness of the DP-GLM regression mean function estimate. We also give examples for when those conditions hold, including models for compactly supported continuous distributions and a model with continuous covariates and categorical response. We empirically analyze the properties of the DP-GLM and why it provides better results than existing Dirichlet process mixture regression models. We evaluate DP-GLM on several data sets, comparing it to modern methods of nonparametric regression like CART, Bayesian trees and Gaussian processes. Compared to existing techniques, the DP-GLM provides a single model (and corresponding inference algorithms) that performs well in many regression settings. Finally, we study convex stochastic search problems where a noisy objective function value is observed after a decision is made. There are many stochastic search problems whose behavior depends on an exogenous state variable which affects the shape of the objective function. Currently, there is no general purpose algorithm to solve this class of problems. We use nonparametric density estimation to take observations from the joint state-outcome distribution and use them to infer the optimal decision for a given query state. We propose two solution methods that depend on the problem characteristics: function-based and gradient-based optimization. We examine two weighting schemes, kernel-based weights and Dirichlet process-based weights, for use with the solution methods. The weights and solution methods are tested on a synthetic multi-product newsvendor problem and the hour-ahead wind commitment problem. Our results show that in some cases Dirichlet process weights offer substantial benefits over kernel based weights and more generally that nonparametric estimation methods provide good solutions to otherwise intractable problems.

Academic portfolio in the digital era: organizing and maintaining a portfolio using reference managers.

PubMed

Bhargava, Puneet; Patel, Vatsal B; Iyer, Ramesh S; Moshiri, Mariam; Robinson, Tracy J; Lall, Chandana; Heller, Matthew T

2015-02-01

The academic portfolio has become an integral part of the promotions process. Creating and maintaining an academic portfolio in paper-based or web-based formats can be a cumbersome and time-consuming task. In this article, we describe an alternative way to efficiently organize an academic portfolio using a reference manager software, and discuss some of the afforded advantages. The reference manager software Papers (Mekentosj, Amsterdam, The Netherlands) was used to create an academic portfolio. The article outlines the key steps in creating and maintaining a digital academic portfolio. Using reference manager software (Papers), we created an academic portfolio that allows the user to digitally organize clinical, teaching, and research accomplishments in an indexed library enabling efficient updating, rapid retrieval, and easy sharing. To our knowledge, this is the first digital portfolio of its kind.

Portfolio Use and Practices in US Colleges and Schools of Pharmacy

PubMed Central

Turner, Paul D.; Jones, Rhonda M.; Tilleman, Jennifer A.; Coover, Kelli L.

2012-01-01

Objectives. To identify the prevalence of portfolio use in US pharmacy programs, common components of portfolios, and advantages of and limitations to using portfolios. Methods. A cross-sectional electronic survey instrument was sent to experiential coordinators at US colleges and schools of pharmacy to collect data on portfolio content, methods, training and resource requirements, and benefits and challenges of portfolio use. Results. Most colleges and schools of pharmacy (61.8%) use portfolios in experiential courses and the majority (67.1%) formally assess them, but there is wide variation regarding content and assessment. The majority of respondents used student portfolios as a formative evaluation primarily in the experiential curriculum. Conclusions. Although most colleges and schools of pharmacy have a portfolio system in place, few are using them to fulfill accreditation requirements. Colleges and schools need to carefully examine the intended purpose of their portfolio system and follow-through with implementation and maintenance of a system that meets their goals. PMID:22544963

[Development of a portfolio for competency-based assessment in a clinical clerkship curriculum].

PubMed

Roh, HyeRin; Lee, Jong-Tae; Yoon, Yoo Sang; Rhee, Byoung Doo

2015-12-01

The purpose of this report was to describe our experience in planning and developing a portfolio for a clinical clerkship curriculum. We have developed a portfolio for assessing student competency since 2007. During an annual workshop on clinical clerkship curricula, clerkship directors from five Paik hospitals of Inje University met to improve the assessment of the portfolio. We generated templates for students to record their activities and reflection and receive feedback. We uploaded these templates to our school's website for students to download freely. Annually, we have held a faculty development seminar and a workshop for portfolio assessment and feedback. Also, we established an orientation program on how to construct a learning portfolio for students. Future actions include creating a ubiquitous portfolio system, extending the portfolio to the entire curriculum, setting up an advisor system, and managing the quality of the portfolio. This study could be helpful for medical schools that plan to improve their portfolio assessment with an outcome-based approach.

7 CFR 4290.760 - How a change in size or activity of a Portfolio Concern affects the RBIC and the Portfolio Concern.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 7 Agriculture 15 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false How a change in size or activity of a Portfolio Concern affects the RBIC and the Portfolio Concern. 4290.760 Section 4290.760 Agriculture Regulations of... size or activity of a Portfolio Concern affects the RBIC and the Portfolio Concern. (a) Effect on RBIC...

Qualitative study of the impact of an authentic electronic portfolio in undergraduate medical education.

PubMed

Belcher, Rosie; Jones, Anna; Smith, Laura-Jane; Vincent, Tim; Naidu, Sindhu Bhaarrati; Montgomery, Julia; Haq, Inam; Gill, Deborah

2014-12-17

Portfolios are increasingly used in undergraduate and postgraduate medical education. Four medical schools have collaborated with an established NHS electronic portfolio provider to develop and implement an authentic professional electronic portfolio for undergraduate students. We hypothesized that using an authentic portfolio would have significant advantages for students, particularly in familiarizing them with the tool many will continue to use for years after graduation. This paper describes the early evaluation of this undergraduate portfolio at two participating medical schools. To gather data, a questionnaire survey with extensive free text comments was used at School 1, and three focus groups were held at School 2. This paper reports thematic analysis of students' opinions expressed in the free text comments and focus groups. Five main themes, common across both schools were identified. These concerned the purpose, use and acceptability of the portfolio, advantages of and barriers to the use of the portfolio, and the impacts on both learning and professional identity. An authentic portfolio mitigated some of the negative aspects of using a portfolio, and had a positive effect on students' perception of themselves as becoming past of the profession. However, significant barriers to portfolio use remained, including a lack of understanding of the purpose of a portfolio and a perceived damaging effect on feedback.

75 FR 4062 - Peer Review Best Practices Workshop

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-01-26

...:15 a.m. Panel 2: Applied Research, Technology Development--NIST, ARPA-E, ONR, MIT 12:30 p.m. Lunch 1... Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) funds a diverse portfolio of research, development...-federal organizations have chosen to select research and development projects, and on ``best practices...

Eportfolios and Cognitive Storytelling: Making the Journey Personal

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brammer, Charlotte

2011-01-01

Authentic reflections are critical components of strong portfolios, and students often struggle with this important task. Students in our program have found success through carefully constructed steps of collecting, selecting, and reflecting on artifacts from their coursework, internships, and extracurricular activities. Working in peer groups as…

Student portfolios and the hidden curriculum on gender: mapping exclusion.

PubMed

Phillips, Christine B

2009-09-01

The hidden curriculum - the norms, values and practices that are transmitted to students through modelling by preceptors and teachers, and decisions about curricular exclusions and inclusions - can be profoundly important in the socialising of trainee doctors. However, tracking the hidden curriculum as it evolves can be challenging for medical schools. This study aimed to explore the content of student e-portfolios on gender issues, a key perspective often taught through a hidden curriculum. Online posts for a gender and medicine e-portfolio task completed by two cohorts of students in Year 3 of a 4-year medical course (n = 167, 66% female) were analysed using a grounded theory approach. A process of gendered 'othering' was applied to both men and women in the medical school using different pedagogical strategies. Curricular emphases on women's health and lack of support for male students to acquire gynaecological examination skills were seen as explicit ways of excluding males. For female medical students, exclusion tended to be implicit, operating through modelling and aphoristic comments about so-called 'female-friendly' career choices and the negative impact of motherhood on career. E-portfolios can be a useful way of tracking the hidden curriculum as it evolves. Responses to gendered exclusion may be developed more readily for the explicit processes impacting on male students than for the implicit processes impacting on female students, which often reflect structural issues related to training and employment.

Decision analysis and drug development portfolio management: uncovering the real options value of your projects.

PubMed

Rosati, Nicoletta

2002-04-01

Project selection and portfolio management are particularly challenging in the pharmaceutical industry due to the high risk - high stake nature of the drug development process. In the recent years, scholars and industry experts have agreed that traditional Net-Present-Value evaluation of the projects fails to capture the value of managerial flexibility, and encouraged adopting a real options approach to recover the missed value. In this paper, we take a closer look at the drug development process and at the indices currently used to rank projects. We discuss the economic value of information and of real options arising in drug development and present decision analysis as an ideal framework for the implementation of real options valuation.

The Use of Portfolios for Teacher Evaluation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lengeling, M. Martha

A discussion of the use of portfolios for teacher evaluation reviews common uses of portfolios in higher education and offers suggestions for portfolio construction. It is noted that portfolios are frequently used for evaluation of both learner and teacher performance, as a means of documenting an individual's capabilities and skills. Some…

Challenges in Producing a Portfolio for Assessment: In Search of Underpinning Educational Theories

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tisani, Nomathamsanqa

2008-01-01

The use of portfolios for assessment is gaining popularity in higher education. Despite acknowledged difficulties and flaws associated with this assessment method, portfolios have advantages over traditional methods. Handbooks on methods of constructing portfolios often emphasise the mechanics of the "process" of building portfolios.…

12 CFR 347.108 - Portfolio investments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Portfolio investments. 347.108 Section 347.108... INTERNATIONAL BANKING § 347.108 Portfolio investments. (a) Portfolio investments. If a bank, directly or indirectly, acquires or holds an equity interest in a foreign organization as a portfolio investment and the...

12 CFR 347.108 - Portfolio investments.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 4 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Portfolio investments. 347.108 Section 347.108... INTERNATIONAL BANKING § 347.108 Portfolio investments. (a) Portfolio investments. If a bank, directly or indirectly, acquires or holds an equity interest in a foreign organization as a portfolio investment and the...

Implementation of Portfolio Assessment in a Competency-based Dental Hygiene Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gadbury-Amyot, Cynthia C.; Holt, Lorie P.; Overman, Pamela R.; Schmidt, Colleen R.

2000-01-01

Describes the implementation of a portfolio assessment program in the dental hygiene program at the University of Missouri School of Dentistry. Tables provide examples of program competencies and related portfolio entries, the complete scoring rubric for portfolios, and the student portfolio evaluation survey. Concludes that although portfolio…

Assessment and Assurance of Learning Using E-Portfolios

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Papp, Raymond

2014-01-01

Traditional paper portfolios have been used to assess student work for performance and employment purposes for decades. The advent of electronic portfolios incorporating audio, video, hyperlinked documents and scanned images takes the use of portfolios to a new level. Evaluators can use these easily accessible portfolios to gauge student…

12 CFR 1252.1 - Enterprise portfolio holding criteria.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... 12 Banks and Banking 7 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Enterprise portfolio holding criteria. 1252.1 Section 1252.1 Banks and Banking FEDERAL HOUSING FINANCE AGENCY ENTERPRISES PORTFOLIO HOLDINGS § 1252.1 Enterprise portfolio holding criteria. The Enterprises are required to comply with the portfolio holdings...

A Mean variance analysis of arbitrage portfolios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Shuhong

2007-03-01

Based on the careful analysis of the definition of arbitrage portfolio and its return, the author presents a mean-variance analysis of the return of arbitrage portfolios, which implies that Korkie and Turtle's results ( B. Korkie, H.J. Turtle, A mean-variance analysis of self-financing portfolios, Manage. Sci. 48 (2002) 427-443) are misleading. A practical example is given to show the difference between the arbitrage portfolio frontier and the usual portfolio frontier.

Ant colony algorithm for clustering in portfolio optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Subekti, R.; Sari, E. R.; Kusumawati, R.

2018-03-01

This research aims to describe portfolio optimization using clustering methods with ant colony approach. Two stock portfolios of LQ45 Indonesia is proposed based on the cluster results obtained from ant colony optimization (ACO). The first portfolio consists of assets with ant colony displacement opportunities beyond the defined probability limits of the researcher, where the weight of each asset is determined by mean-variance method. The second portfolio consists of two assets with the assumption that each asset is a cluster formed from ACO. The first portfolio has a better performance compared to the second portfolio seen from the Sharpe index.

Implementing portfolio in postgraduate general practice training. Benefits and recommendations.

PubMed

Alotaibi, Fawaz S

2012-10-01

This paper presents a review to explore the literature focusing on portfolio in postgraduate general practice (GP) training, and to examine the impact of implementation of portfolio on learning process, as well as proposing recommendations for its implementation in postgraduate GP training. An electronic search was carried out on several databases for studies addressing portfolio in postgraduate GP training. Six articles were included to address specifically the effectiveness of portfolio in postgraduate GP training. Five of them described successful experiences of portfolio-based learning implementation. Only one article addressed portfolio-based assessment in postgraduate GP training. The existing evidence provides various benefits of professional portfolio-based learning. It does appear to have advantages of stimulating reflective learning, promoting proactive learning, and bridging the hospital experiences of the learners to GP. Moreover, the challenges to implementation of portfolio-based learning are often based on orientation and training of stakeholders.

Evaluation of an established learning portfolio.

PubMed

Vance, Gillian; Williamson, Alyson; Frearson, Richard; O'Connor, Nicole; Davison, John; Steele, Craig; Burford, Bryan

2013-02-01

The trainee-held learning portfolio is integral to the foundation programme in the UK. In the Northern Deanery, portfolio assessment is standardised through the Annual Review of Competence Progression (ARCP) process. In this study we aimed to establish how current trainees evaluate portfolio-based learning and ARCP, and how these attitudes may have changed since the foundation programme was first introduced. Deanery-wide trainee attitudes were surveyed by an electronic questionnaire in 2009 and compared with perceptions recorded during the pilot phase (2004-2005).  Many trainees continue to view the e-portfolio negatively. Indeed, significantly fewer trainees in 2009 thought that the e-portfolio was a 'good idea' or a 'worthwhile investment of time' than in 2005. Trainees remain unconvinced about the educational value of the e-portfolio: fewer trainees in 2009 regarded it as a tool that might help focus on training or recognise individual strengths and weaknesses. Issues around unnecessary bureaucracy persist. Current trainees tend to understand how to use the e-portfolio, but many did not know how much, or what evidence to collect. Few supervisors were reported to provide useful guidance on the portfolio. ARCP encouraged portfolio completion but did not give meaningful feedback to drive future learning.   Continued support is needed for both trainees and supervisors in portfolio-building skills and in using the e-portfolio as an educational tool. Trainee-tailored feedback is needed to ensure that portfolio-based assessment promotes lifelong, self-directed and reflective learners. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2013.

Lost opportunities and future avenues to reconcile hydropower and sediment transport in the Mekong Basin through optimal sequencing of dam portfolios.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castelletti, A.; Schmitt, R. J. P.; Bizzi, S.; Kondolf, G. M.

2017-12-01

Dams are essential to meet growing water and energy demands. While dams cumulatively impact downstream rivers on network-scales, dam development is mostly based on ad-hoc economic and environmental assessments of single dams. Here, we provide evidence that replacing this ad-hoc approach with early strategic planning of entire dam portfolios can greatly reduce conflicts between economic and environmental objectives of dams. In the Mekong Basin (800,000km2), 123 major dam sites (status-quo: 56 built and under construction) could generate 280,000 GWh/yr of hydropower. Cumulatively, dams risk interrupting the basin's sediment dynamics with severe impacts on livelihoods and eco-systems. To evaluate cumulative impacts and benefits of the ad-hoc planned status-quo portfolio, we combine the CASCADE sediment connectivity model with data on hydropower production and sediment trapping at each dam site. We couple CASCADE to a multi-objective genetic algorithm (BORG) identifying a) portfolios resulting in an optimal trade-off between cumulative sediment trapping and hydropower production and b) an optimal development sequence for each portfolio. We perform this analysis first for the pristine basin (i.e., without pre-existing dams) and then starting from the status-quo portfolio, deriving policy recommendations for which dams should be prioritized in the near future. The status-quo portfolio creates a sub-optimal trade-off between hydropower and sediment trapping, exploiting 50 % of the basin's hydro-electric potential and trapping 60 % of the sediment load. Alternative optimal portfolios could have produced equivalent hydropower for 30 % sediment trapping. Imminent development of mega-dams in the lower basin will increase hydropower production by 20 % but increase sediment trapping to >90 %. In contrast, following an optimal development sequence can still increase hydropower by 30 % with limited additional sediment trapping by prioritizing dams in upper parts of the basin. Our findings argue for reconsidering some imminent dam developments in the Mekong. With nearly 3000 dams awaiting development world-wide, results from the Mekong are of global importance, demonstrating that strategic planning and sequencing of dams is instrumental for sustainable development of dams and hydropower.

Not all that glitters is RMT in the forecasting of risk of portfolios in the Brazilian stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandoval, Leonidas; Bortoluzzo, Adriana Bruscato; Venezuela, Maria Kelly

2014-09-01

Using stocks of the Brazilian stock exchange (BM&F-Bovespa), we build portfolios of stocks based on Markowitz's theory and test the predicted and realized risks. This is done using the correlation matrices between stocks, and also using Random Matrix Theory in order to clean such correlation matrices from noise. We also calculate correlation matrices using a regression model in order to remove the effect of common market movements and their cleaned versions using Random Matrix Theory. This is done for years of both low and high volatility of the Brazilian stock market, from 2004 to 2012. The results show that the use of regression to subtract the market effect on returns greatly increases the accuracy of the prediction of risk, and that, although the cleaning of the correlation matrix often leads to portfolios that better predict risks, in periods of high volatility of the market this procedure may fail to do so. The results may be used in the assessment of the true risks when one builds a portfolio of stocks during periods of crisis.

Evaluating Portfolio Use as a Learning Tool for Professionals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, Kari; Tillema, Harm

1998-01-01

Studies of portfolio construction and compilation involving 35 Israeli principals and 14 Dutch managers show that high-quality portfolios can only be expected after sustained use, but that the use of portfolios has an immediate impact on views toward assessment. Portfolios are time-consuming, but can provide effective feedback to the learner. (SLD)

Exploring the Role of Assessment Criteria during Teachers' Collaborative Judgement Processes of Students' Portfolios

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van der Schaaf, Marieke; Baartman, Liesbeth; Prins, Frans

2012-01-01

Student portfolios are increasingly used for assessing student competences in higher education, but results about the construct validity of portfolio assessment are mixed. A prerequisite for construct validity is that the portfolio assessment is based on relevant portfolio content. Assessment criteria, are often used to enhance this condition.…

Portfolio Assessment: A Handbook for Educators. Assessment Bookshelf Series.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barton, James, Ed.; Collins, Angelo, Ed.

This guide contains practical steps for integrating portfolios into any K-12 classroom and tips for effective classroom management of portfolios. It also contains actual examples of portfolios in action in a variety of subject areas. The chapters are: (1) "Starting Out: Designing Your Portfolio" (James Barton and Angelo Collins); (2) "Preparing…

12 CFR 702.104 - Risk portfolios defined.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... CORRECTIVE ACTION Net Worth Classification § 702.104 Risk portfolios defined. A risk portfolio is a portfolio... 12 Banks and Banking 6 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Risk portfolios defined. 702.104 Section 702... or mature within the next five (5) years, and exclusive of all member business loans (as defined in...

Fellows' Perceptions of a Mandatory Reflective Electronic Portfolio in a Geriatric Medicine Fellowship Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ruiz, Jorge G.; Qadri, Syeda S.; Karides, Marina; Castillo, Carmen; Milanez, Marcos; Roos, Bernard A.

2009-01-01

Electronic portfolios (ePortfolios) can be useful for evaluating and documenting mastery of competencies. We investigated geriatric medicine fellows' perceptions of an ePortfolio. We conducted surveys and focus groups followed by quantitative and qualitative data analysis. Our study revealed that fellows considered the ePortfolio acceptable and…

The Bottomless File Box: Electronic Portfolios for Learning and Evaluation Purposes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jarrott, Shannon; Gambrel, Laura Eubanks

2011-01-01

Portfolios have been used for the past three decades in higher education for assessment of student competency and also as a reflection tool to assist student learning. Electronic portfolios, or ePortfolios, have additional benefits compared to paper portfolios in that they are easily accessible, portable, and sharable, and they are more…

Creating a Living Portfolio: Documenting Student Growth with Electronic Portfolios.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siegle, Del

2002-01-01

This article explains how teachers can use electronic portfolios of students' work to document learner progress. It considers different file formats for storing student work, describes steps to creating an electronic portfolio, and discusses an art and literature electronic magazine created by one school featuring work from student portfolios. (CR)

17 CFR 270.17a-6 - Exemption for transactions with portfolio affiliates.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... with portfolio affiliates. 270.17a-6 Section 270.17a-6 Commodity and Securities Exchanges SECURITIES... Exemption for transactions with portfolio affiliates. (a) Exemption for transactions with portfolio affiliates. A transaction to which a fund, or a company controlled by a fund, and a portfolio affiliate of...

Preparedness Portfolios and Portfolio Studios: Supporting Self-Authoring Engineers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sattler, Brook; Turns, Jennifer

2015-01-01

In this work, we engaged engineering undergraduate students in constructing an ePortfolio. The purpose of the research presented here was to explore the question, "If and in what ways do students report experiencing the construction of a preparedness portfolio in a portfolio studio as an opportunity to develop into self-authoring…

Portfolio assessment during medical internships: How to obtain a reliable and feasible assessment procedure?

PubMed

Michels, Nele R M; Driessen, Erik W; Muijtjens, Arno M M; Van Gaal, Luc F; Bossaert, Leo L; De Winter, Benedicte Y

2009-12-01

A portfolio is used to mentor and assess students' clinical performance at the workplace. However, students and raters often perceive the portfolio as a time-consuming instrument. In this study, we investigated whether assessment during medical internship by a portfolio can combine reliability and feasibility. The domain-oriented reliability of 61 double-rated portfolios was measured, using a generalisability analysis with portfolio tasks and raters as sources of variation in measuring the performance of a student. We obtained reliability (Phi coefficient) of 0.87 with this internship portfolio containing 15 double-rated tasks. The generalisability analysis showed that an acceptable level of reliability (Phi = 0.80) was maintained when the amount of portfolio tasks was decreased to 13 or 9 using one and two raters, respectively. Our study shows that a portfolio can be a reliable method for the assessment of workplace learning. The possibility of reducing the amount of tasks or raters while maintaining a sufficient level of reliability suggests an increase in feasibility of portfolio use for both students and raters.

Using portfolios for clinical practice learning and assessment: the pre-registration nursing student's perspective.

PubMed

McMullan, Miriam

2008-10-01

Portfolios have been introduced to help to integrate theory and practice and thereby address the issue of the theory-practice divide. Although there has been much theoretical discussion about portfolio use in clinical placements, few studies have focused on the students' perceptions regarding their use. To obtain adult branch pre-registration nursing students' perspectives on using portfolios for their clinical practice learning and assessment, postal questionnaires were sent to 253 diploma of nursing students with a reminder to all students three weeks later. The response rate was 69% (174/253). This paper reports on the qualitative findings of the study, which employed both quantitative and qualitative methods. Although students stated that portfolios helped them in their development of self-awareness and independent learning, they indicated that portfolios do not sufficiently address the assessment of their clinical skills and the integration of theory and practice. They considered that portfolios could be greatly improved in three areas, namely in the conflict between using portfolios for both assessment and learning, the amount of support and guidance students feel they receive with their portfolio use and the portfolio design.

Estimating Phenomenological Parameters in Multi-Assets Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raffaelli, Giacomo; Marsili, Matteo

Financial correlations exhibit a non-trivial dynamic behavior. This is reproduced by a simple phenomenological model of a multi-asset financial market, which takes into account the impact of portfolio investment on price dynamics. This captures the fact that correlations determine the optimal portfolio but are affected by investment based on it. Such a feedback on correlations gives rise to an instability when the volume of investment exceeds a critical value. Close to the critical point the model exhibits dynamical correlations very similar to those observed in real markets. We discuss how the model's parameter can be estimated in real market data with a maximum likelihood principle. This confirms the main conclusion that real markets operate close to a dynamically unstable point.

77 FR 48583 - Sunshine Act Meeting Notice; Meeting No. 12-03; August 16, 2012

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-14

... news media following the Board meeting. Status: Open. Agenda Chairman's Welcome. Old Business Approval... of the Finance, Rates, and Portfolio Committee A. FY 13 Financial Plan B. Financial Shelf C... Selection 6. Report of the External Relations Committee For more information: Please call TVA Media...

From SRI to ESG: The Changing World of Responsible Investing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caplan, Lauren; Griswold, John S.; Jarvis, William F.

2013-01-01

Thoughtful investment professionals continue to debate whether a portfolio's long-term performance can be enhanced by including environmental, social, and governance (ESG) considerations in the security selection process, but responsible investing is more than a passing trend. The terms socially-responsible investing, mission-related investing,…

Patterns of Strategies in Swiss Higher Education Institutions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fumasoli, Tatiana; Lepori, Benedetto

2011-01-01

This paper contributes to the debate on strategic capability of academic organizations by presenting three case studies of Swiss Higher Education Institutions. Strategies are conceived as instruments by which universities manage their organizational processes and deal with their environments in order to select a portfolio of activities and find an…

A Steady Hand in Uncertain Times

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Matthews, Frank

2009-01-01

TIAA-CREF, the financial services company that manages retirement portfolios for professionals in academia and other select fields, avoided the heavy losses other financial firms incurred during last fall's financial meltdown. Thus far, the indicators reflect TIAA-CREF's prudent, disciplined investment strategies. From Sept. 30 to Dec. 31, 2008,…

Jointness: A Selected Bibliography

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-08-01

AD-A431-767) http://handle.dtic.mil/100.2/ADA431767 Lamb , William L. Moving beyond Goldwater-Nichols: The Case for Continued Reform of the DoD...in Support of the Joint Force’." Army Aviation 55 (May 2006): 22-24. Magnuson, Stew . "Turf Battles: Strategic Command’s Expanded Portfolio

Modeling Flood Insurance Penetration in the European Non-Life Market: An Overview

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohan, P.; Thomson, M.-K.; Das, A.

2012-04-01

Non-life property insurance plays a significant role in assessing and managing economic risk. Understanding the exposure, or property at risk, helps insurers and reinsurers to better categorize and manage their portfolios. However, the nature of the flood peril, in particular adverse selection, has led to a complex system of different insurance covers and policies across Europe owing to its public and private distinctions based on premiums provided as ex ante or ex post, socio-economic characterization and various compensation schemes. To model this significant level of complexity within the European flood insurance market requires not only extensive data research, close understanding of insurance companies and associations as well as historic flood events, but also careful evaluation of the flood hazard in terms of return periods and flood extents, and the economic/ financial background of the geographies involved. This abstract explores different approaches for modeling the flood insurance penetration rates in Europe depending on the information available and complexity involved. For countries which have either a regulated market with mandatory or high penetration rate, as for example found in the UK, France and Switzerland, or indeed countries with negligible insurance cover such as Luxembourg, assumptions about the penetration rates can be made at country level. However, in countries with a private insurance market, the picture becomes inherently more complex. For example in both Austria and Germany, flood insurance is generally restricted, associated with high costs to the insured or not available at all in high risk areas. In order to better manage flood risk, the Austria and German government agencies produced the risk classification systems HORA and ZÜRS, respectively, which categorize risk into four risk zones based on the exceedance probability of a flood occurrence. Except for regions that have preserved mandatory flood inclusion from past policies, insurance cover is generally limited or not available in high risk zones due to high risk proximity. To estimate this relationship, flood extent maps, modeled return periods, socio- economic indicators and the spatial distribution of insured portfolios can be used to quantify the economic to insured exposure ratio. Adequately modeling these insurance conditions not only allows developing an industry view of the exposed property and values at risk from flood but also improves loss assessments. From an insurance perspective, such a model is beneficial for assessing insurance cover related to flood damage - especially due to differences in policies in high-exposure zones - the role of governments, and to assist insurers and reinsurers to make informed decision in allocating their portfolios.

Application of the ultrametric distance to portfolio taxonomy. Critical approach and comparison with other methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skórnik-Pokarowska, Urszula; Orłowski, Arkadiusz

2004-12-01

We calculate the ultrametric distance between the pairs of stocks that belong to the same portfolio. The ultrametric distance allows us to distinguish groups of shares that are related. In this way, we can construct a portfolio taxonomy that can be used for constructing an efficient portfolio. We also construct a portfolio taxonomy based not only on stock prices but also on economic indices such as liquidity ratio, debt ratio and sales profitability ratio. We show that a good investment strategy can be obtained by applying to the portfolio chosen by the taxonomy method the so-called Constant Rebalanced Portfolio.

Selection and optimization of hits from a high-throughput phenotypic screen against Trypanosoma cruzi.

PubMed

Keenan, Martine; Alexander, Paul W; Chaplin, Jason H; Abbott, Michael J; Diao, Hugo; Wang, Zhisen; Best, Wayne M; Perez, Catherine J; Cornwall, Scott M J; Keatley, Sarah K; Thompson, R C Andrew; Charman, Susan A; White, Karen L; Ryan, Eileen; Chen, Gong; Ioset, Jean-Robert; von Geldern, Thomas W; Chatelain, Eric

2013-10-01

Inhibitors of Trypanosoma cruzi with novel mechanisms of action are urgently required to diversify the current clinical and preclinical pipelines. Increasing the number and diversity of hits available for assessment at the beginning of the discovery process will help to achieve this aim. We report the evaluation of multiple hits generated from a high-throughput screen to identify inhibitors of T. cruzi and from these studies the discovery of two novel series currently in lead optimization. Lead compounds from these series potently and selectively inhibit growth of T. cruzi in vitro and the most advanced compound is orally active in a subchronic mouse model of T. cruzi infection. High-throughput screening of novel compound collections has an important role to play in diversifying the trypanosomatid drug discovery portfolio. A new T. cruzi inhibitor series with good drug-like properties and promising in vivo efficacy has been identified through this process.

Examiner perceptions of a portfolio assessment process.

PubMed

Davis, Margery H; Ponnamperuma, Gominda G

2010-01-01

The portfolio assessment process is important for assessing learner achievement. To study examiner perceptions of Dundee Medical School's portfolio assessment process, in years 4 and 5 of the 5-year curriculum, in relation to: outcomes as a framework for the portfolio assessment process; portfolio content; portfolio assessment process; end points of the portfolio assessment process; appropriateness of the two part final exam format and examiner training. A questionnaire containing statements and open questions was used to obtain examiner feedback. Responses to each statement were compared over 3 years: 1999, 2000 and 2003. Response rates were 100%, 88% and 61% in 1999, 2002 and 2003, respectively. Examiners were positive about the ability of institutionally set learning outcomes (Dundee 12 exit learning outcomes) to provide a framework for the portfolio assessment process. They found difficulties, however, with the volume of portfolio content and the time allocated to assess it. Agreeing a grade for each learning outcome for the candidate with their co-examiner did not present difficulties. The comprehensive, holistic picture of the candidate provided by the portfolio assessment process was perceived to be one of its strengths. Examiners were supportive of the final examination format, and were satisfied with their briefing about the process. The 12 exit learning outcomes of Dundee curriculum provide an appropriate framework for the portfolio assessment process, but the content of the portfolio requires fine-tuning particularly with regard to quantity. Time allocated to examiners for the portfolio assessment process needs to be balanced against practicability. The holistic picture of the candidate provided by the process was one of its strengths.

Electronic Portfolios as Living Portals: A Narrative Inquiry into College Student Learning, Identity, and Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nguyen, Celeste Fowles

2013-01-01

As universities increasingly utilize electronic portfolios, college students are asked more than ever to create ePortfolios for academics, assessment, or advising. This study shifts an analysis of ePortfolios from prior epistemological approaches, where ePortfolios have been explored as a tool to measure student progress, onto an ontological…

12 CFR 225.171 - What are the limitations on managing or operating a portfolio company held as a merchant banking...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... banking investment? (a) May a financial holding company routinely manage or operate a portfolio company... manage or operate any portfolio company. (b) When does a financial holding company routinely manage or... portfolio company. A financial holding company routinely manages or operates a portfolio company if any...

12 CFR 225.171 - What are the limitations on managing or operating a portfolio company held as a merchant banking...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... banking investment? (a) May a financial holding company routinely manage or operate a portfolio company... manage or operate any portfolio company. (b) When does a financial holding company routinely manage or... portfolio company. A financial holding company routinely manages or operates a portfolio company if any...

ePortfolios and Interdisciplinary Adult Degree Programs

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bryant, Layne Ray; Rust, Dianna Zeh; Fox-Horton, Julie; Johnson, Amy Denise

2017-01-01

This article discusses the use of ePortfolios in interdisciplinary online adult degree programs at two universities. Whereas one university uses the ePortfolio only in a capstone course, the other institution introduces the ePortfolio in an introductory course that focuses on goal setting and then has students add content to the ePortfolio in the…

E-Portfolio, a Valuable Job Search Tool for College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yu, Ti

2012-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to find answers to the following questions: How do employers think about e-portfolios? Do employers really see e-portfolios as a suitable hiring tool? Which factors in students' e-portfolios attract potential employers? Can e-portfolios be successfully used by students in their search for a job?…

Using Facebook-Based e-Portfolio in ESL Writing Classrooms: Impact and Challenges

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barrot, Jessie S.

2016-01-01

In English as a second language (ESL) writing pedagogy, much attention has been given to electronic portfolio (e-portfolio) assessment via social networking sites. However, little is known about how Facebook can be used as an e-portfolio platform. Hence, this paper describes the impact of Facebook-based e-portfolio on ESL students' writing…

Improving Water Resources Management on Global and Region Scales - Evaluating Strategies for Water Futures with the IIASA's Community Water Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burek, P.; Kahil, T.; Satoh, Y.; Greve, P.; Byers, E.; Langan, S.; Wada, Y.

2017-12-01

Half of the planet's population is severely impacted by severe water issues including absent or unreliable water supply, sanitation, poor water quality, unmitigated floods and droughts, and degraded water environments. In recent years, global water security has been highlighted not only by the science community but also by business leaders as one of the greatest threats to sustainable human development for different generations. How can we ensure the well-being of people and ecosystems with limited water, technology and financial resources? To evaluate this, IIASA's Water Futures and Solutions Initiative (WFaS) is identifying a portfolios of robust and cost-effective options across different economic sectors including agriculture, energy, manufacturing, households, and environment and ecosystems. Options to increase water supply and accessibility are evaluated together with water demand management and water governance options. To test these solution-portfolios in order to obtain a clear picture of the opportunities but also of the risks and the trade-offs we have developed the Community Water Model (CWATM) which joins IIASA's integrated assessment modeling framework, coupling hydrology with hydro-economics (ECHO model), energy (MESSAGE model) and land use (GLOBIOM model). CWATM has been developed to work flexibly with varying spatial resolutions from global to regional levels. The model is open source and community-driven to promote our work amongst the wider water and other science community worldwide, with flexibility to link to other models and integrate newly developed modules such as water quality. In order to identify the solution portfolios, we present a global hotspots assessment of water-related risks with the ability to zoom in at regional scale using the example of the Lake Victoria basin in E. Africa. We show how socio-economic and climate change will alter spatial patterns of the hydrological cycle and have regional impacts on water availability. At the same time, we assess water needs for humans and environment to identify the population and regions that are vulnerable to changes linked to extremes such as water scarcity, droughts and floods. Different solution-portfolios to facilitate regional water management planning will be further discussed.

Fifteen years of portfolio assessment of dental hygiene student competency: lessons learned.

PubMed

Gadbury-Amyot, Cynthia C; Bray, Kimberly Krust; Austin, Kylie J

2014-10-01

Adoption of portfolio assessment in the educational environment is gaining attention as a means to incorporate self-assessment into the curriculum and to use evidence to support learning outcomes and to demonstrate competency. Portfolios provide a medium for students to demonstrate and document their personal and professional growth across the curriculum. The purpose of this literature review is to discuss the drivers for portfolio education, the benefits to both students and program faculty/administrators, the barriers associated with portfolio use, and suggested solutions that have been determined through several years of "lessons learned." The University of Missouri Kansas City School of Dentistry, Division of Dental Hygiene department has been utilizing portfolio assessment for over 15 years and has collected data related to portfolio performance since 2001. Results from correlational statistics calculated on the 312 dental hygiene students that graduated from 2001 to 2013 demonstrate a positive and significant relationship between portfolio performance and overall GPA as well as portfolio performance and NBDHE scores. Copyright © 2014 The American Dental Hygienists’ Association.

Concurrent credit portfolio losses

PubMed Central

Sicking, Joachim; Schäfer, Rudi

2018-01-01

We consider the problem of concurrent portfolio losses in two non-overlapping credit portfolios. In order to explore the full statistical dependence structure of such portfolio losses, we estimate their empirical pairwise copulas. Instead of a Gaussian dependence, we typically find a strong asymmetry in the copulas. Concurrent large portfolio losses are much more likely than small ones. Studying the dependences of these losses as a function of portfolio size, we moreover reveal that not only large portfolios of thousands of contracts, but also medium-sized and small ones with only a few dozens of contracts exhibit notable portfolio loss correlations. Anticipated idiosyncratic effects turn out to be negligible. These are troublesome insights not only for investors in structured fixed-income products, but particularly for the stability of the financial sector. JEL codes: C32, F34, G21, G32, H81. PMID:29425246

Concurrent credit portfolio losses.

PubMed

Sicking, Joachim; Guhr, Thomas; Schäfer, Rudi

2018-01-01

We consider the problem of concurrent portfolio losses in two non-overlapping credit portfolios. In order to explore the full statistical dependence structure of such portfolio losses, we estimate their empirical pairwise copulas. Instead of a Gaussian dependence, we typically find a strong asymmetry in the copulas. Concurrent large portfolio losses are much more likely than small ones. Studying the dependences of these losses as a function of portfolio size, we moreover reveal that not only large portfolios of thousands of contracts, but also medium-sized and small ones with only a few dozens of contracts exhibit notable portfolio loss correlations. Anticipated idiosyncratic effects turn out to be negligible. These are troublesome insights not only for investors in structured fixed-income products, but particularly for the stability of the financial sector. JEL codes: C32, F34, G21, G32, H81.

Best evidence on the educational effects of undergraduate portfolios.

PubMed

Buckley, Sharon; Coleman, Jamie; Khan, Khalid

2010-09-01

The great variety of portfolio types and schemes used in the education of health professionals is reflected in the extensive and diverse educational literature relating to portfolio use. We have recently completed a Best Evidence Medical Education (BEME) systematic review of the literature relating to the use of portfolios in the undergraduate setting that offers clinical teachers insights into both their effects on learning and issues to consider in portfolio implementation. Using a methodology based on BEME recommendations, we searched the literature relating to a range of health professions, identifying evidence for the effects of portfolios on undergraduate student learning, and assessing the methodological quality of each study. The higher quality studies in our review report that, when implemented appropriately, portfolios can improve students' ability to integrate theory with practice, can encourage their self-awareness and reflection, and can offer support for students facing difficult emotional situations. Portfolios can also enhance student-tutor relationships and prepare students for the rigours of postgraduate training. However, the time required to complete a portfolio may detract from students' clinical learning. An analysis of methodological quality against year of publication suggests that, across a range of health professions, the quality of the literature relating to the educational effects of portfolios is improving. However, further work is still required to build the evidence base for the educational effects of portfolios, particularly comparative studies that assess effects on learning directly. Our findings have implications for the design and implementation of portfolios in the undergraduate setting. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2010.

See your brands through your customers' eyes.

PubMed

Lederer, C; Hill, S

2001-06-01

Subaru markets an L.L. Bean Outback station wagon. Dell stamps Microsoft and Intel logos on its computers. Such inter-weaving of different companies' brands is now commonplace. But one of the central tools of brand management-portfolio mapping--has not kept pace with changes in the marketplace. Most conventional brand maps include only those brands owned by a company, arranged along organizational lines with little regard for how the brands influence customer perceptions. In this article, the authors present a new mapping tool--the brand portfolio molecule--that reveals the way brands appear to customers. The brand portfolio molecule includes all the brands that factor into a consumer's decision to buy, whether or not the company owns them. The first step in creating a brand portfolio molecule is to determine which brands should or should not be included. The second step is to classify each brand by asking five key questions: 1) How important is this brand to customers' purchase decisions about the brand you're mapping? 2) Is its influence positive or negative? 3) What market position does this brand occupy relative to the other brands in the portfolio? 4) How does this brand connect to the other brands in the portfolio? 5) How much control do you have over this brand? The last step is to map the molecule using a 3-D modeling program or by hand with pen and paper. Individual brands take the form of atoms, and they're clustered in ways that reflect how customers see them. The usefulness of the tool lies in its ability to show the many forces that influence a customer's buying decision--and to provide a powerful new way to think about brand strategy.

Remake/Remodel: Using ePortfolios and a System of Gates to Improve Student Assessment and Program Evaluation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lowenthal, Patrick; White, John W.; Cooley, Karen

2011-01-01

Electronic portfolios have become increasingly popular. The value of a portfolio, though, depends on how, when, and why students create, submit, and have their portfolios evaluated. In the following paper, we describe how we redesigned a program's assessment and evaluation plan around the use of electronic portfolios and a system of gates focusing…

A model for partnering first-year student pharmacists with community-based older adults.

PubMed

Martin, Beth A; Porter, Andrea L; Shawl, Lauren; Motl Moroney, Susannah E

2012-06-18

To design, integrate, and assess the effectiveness of an introductory pharmacy practice experience intended to redefine first-year student pharmacists' views on aging and medication use through their work with a healthy, community-based older-adult population. All students (N = 273) completed live skills training in an 8-hour boot camp provided during orientation week. Teams were assigned an independently living senior partner, completed 10 visits and reflections, and documented health-related information using an electronic portfolio (e-portfolio). As determined by pre- and post-experience survey instruments, students gained significant confidence in 7 skill areas related to communication, medication interviews, involving the partner in health care, and applying patient-care skills. Student reflections, in-class presentations, and e-portfolios documented that personal attitudes toward seniors changed over time. Senior partners enjoyed mentoring and interacting with students and many experienced health improvements as a result of the interaction. The model for partnering first-year student pharmacists with community-based older adults improved students' skills and fostered their connections to pharmacist roles and growth as person-centered providers.

Students' perceptions of the use of eportfolios in nursing and midwifery education.

PubMed

Birks, Melanie; Hartin, Peter; Woods, Cindy; Emmanuel, Elizabeth; Hitchins, Marnie

2016-05-01

ePortfolios have been introduced into many higher education degrees in the past decade in an effort to help students to link theory, practice and personal experiences. This pilot study used a survey to examine ePortfolio use from the perspective of undergraduate nursing and postgraduate midwifery students. Fifty-seven students from a regional Australian university completed an online questionnaire which contained questions about the following areas of ePortfolio use: understanding of the tool; psychological perceptions; challenges around use; assessment; outcomes of use; benefits; maintenance of the ePortfolio; and enhanced learning. The majority of respondents were female, undergraduate students, aged 21-30 years. Results indicated that many students found ePortfolio use frustrating; in particular, technological and logistical challenges in using ePortfolios were highlighted. Most students, however, noted ePortfolios could be useful repositories for documents, reflections and learning experiences. Undergraduate students were more likely than postgraduate students to see the positive potential of ePortfolio use. The findings, coupled with the literature, raise questions about the effectiveness of ePortfolio use in nursing and midwifery education and, particularly, whether ePortfolios have been implemented with misguided and misinformed good intention. Further research is required to better understand the logistical and technological aspects of successful implementation of ePortfolios and fully capitalise on their benefits for nursing and midwifery education. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Portfolios to Engage Introductory Geoscience Students in Their Subject and to Develop Learning Skills.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boyle, A. P.; Prior, D. J.

2008-12-01

It is often difficult to deal with wide-ranging, exciting geoscience topics at introductory level when the background geoscience knowledge of the incoming students is limited. This means that new students can often be confronted by self-contained, subject-based topics (e.g. introductory mineralogy) and fail to see where the bigger pictures may be. Another issue, partly arising from massification and thus increasing diversity of student cohorts but also to changes in UK school education goals, is the realisation that incoming students have difficulties combining lecture note taking, reading and general organisation of paper-based materials into a learning package that can help them write structured essays. They need help with the transfer from school to university education. Two years ago, a curriculum review provided the opportunity to develop a new module that could address these issues. The module deals with current topics. Students attend a series of 8 lectures given by 8 different faculty staff covering topics like The Origin of the Moon, Earthquake Prediction, Mass Extinctions, Snowball Earth, and Geohazards spread over the introductory year. Each lecturer uses whatever delivery style they want (PowerPoint, chalk and talk), but the lecture must be an illustration of the scientific method dealing with evidence, models and uncertainty, and must direct students towards a range of associated reading. The students develop a portfolio with a section for each lecture topic. Each section contains their notes, annotated copies of the reading and a one page (A4) summary of the main points of the topic, derived from both the notes and reading. The students also develop a glossary of geological terms. In addition, the students must attend 6 extra talks given by guest speakers at either the student society meetings or the departmental seminar series. Assessment is by the portfolio (40%) and a final essay paper (60%). The portfolio is collected in at the end of the first semester and students are given formative feedback that includes an indicative mark not used for summative purposes. The portfolio is collected again before the end of the second semester so that it can be summatively assessed and returned to facilitate revision. Students who receive formative feedback at the end of the first semester typically improve their second semester performance as a result. A significant number of students, in both years this module has run, do not submit their portfolio for formative assessment and it is notable that their second semester performance is not as good. The final essay paper requires one essay to be answered in 60minutes from a choice of two, which themselves are selected from four essay titles given to the students 6 weeks before the examination. Students are informed that their essays must cover lecture material and reading; a key marking descriptor for a good grade at UK universities is 'shows evidence of reading beyond lecture notes'. Student assessment performance has been good and their feedback on the module has positive. Some are clearly transferring their portfolio skills into other modules. The requirement that students attend six extra talks has improved attendances at invited speaker sessions, especially for the student society, but has also had an affective effect by providing the spur for new students to engage more fully with the life of the department and to get stuck into some often challenging geology.

75 FR 81519 - Confirmation, Portfolio Reconciliation, and Portfolio Compression Requirements for Swap Dealers...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-12-28

... systemic risk, portfolio reconciliation should be a proactive process that delivers a consolidated view of... achieved by portfolio compression, in turn, may lessen systemic risk and enhance the overall stability of...

Portfolio Assessment of Multicultural Counseling Competency.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Coleman, Hardin L. K.

1996-01-01

Presents portfolio assessment as an alternate approach to the measurement of multicultural counseling competency, and evaluates the strengths and weaknesses of portfolio assessment. Identifies the effectiveness of portfolio assessment in stimulating the development of further counseling competence. (SNR)

Extended Information Ratio for Portfolio Optimization Using Simulated Annealing with Constrained Neighborhood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orito, Yukiko; Yamamoto, Hisashi; Tsujimura, Yasuhiro; Kambayashi, Yasushi

The portfolio optimizations are to determine the proportion-weighted combination in the portfolio in order to achieve investment targets. This optimization is one of the multi-dimensional combinatorial optimizations and it is difficult for the portfolio constructed in the past period to keep its performance in the future period. In order to keep the good performances of portfolios, we propose the extended information ratio as an objective function, using the information ratio, beta, prime beta, or correlation coefficient in this paper. We apply the simulated annealing (SA) to optimize the portfolio employing the proposed ratio. For the SA, we make the neighbor by the operation that changes the structure of the weights in the portfolio. In the numerical experiments, we show that our portfolios keep the good performances when the market trend of the future period becomes different from that of the past period.

Application of Post Modern Portfolio Theory to Mitigate Risk in International Shipping

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-03-24

The concept of portfolio optimization pioneered by Dr. Harry Markowitz and still used today for investment diversification is applied to the ...is currently referred to as “Post-Modern Portfolio Theory .” It begins with the foundations of portfolio optimization as created by Harry 14... Portfolio Theory ,” and is still considered to be one of the foundations of economic theory , garnering

The Development of E-Portfolio Evaluation Criteria and Application to the Blackboard LMS E-Portfolio

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McKenna, Gary F.; Stansfield, Mark H.

2012-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to develop e-portfolio evaluation criteria which will be used to review the Blackboard LMS e-portfolio being used at one Higher Education (HE) institution in the UK as evaluation criteria for reviewing e-portfolio provision does not exist in the literature. The approach taken was to initiate a wide literature search…

Large deviations and portfolio optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sornette, Didier

Risk control and optimal diversification constitute a major focus in the finance and insurance industries as well as, more or less consciously, in our everyday life. We present a discussion of the characterization of risks and of the optimization of portfolios that starts from a simple illustrative model and ends by a general functional integral formulation. A major item is that risk, usually thought of as one-dimensional in the conventional mean-variance approach, has to be addressed by the full distribution of losses. Furthermore, the time-horizon of the investment is shown to play a major role. We show the importance of accounting for large fluctuations and use the theory of Cramér for large deviations in this context. We first treat a simple model with a single risky asset that exemplifies the distinction between the average return and the typical return and the role of large deviations in multiplicative processes, and the different optimal strategies for the investors depending on their size. We then analyze the case of assets whose price variations are distributed according to exponential laws, a situation that is found to describe daily price variations reasonably well. Several portfolio optimization strategies are presented that aim at controlling large risks. We end by extending the standard mean-variance portfolio optimization theory, first within the quasi-Gaussian approximation and then using a general formulation for non-Gaussian correlated assets in terms of the formalism of functional integrals developed in the field theory of critical phenomena.

Department of Defense Birth and Infant Health Registry: Select Reproductive Health Outcomes, 2003-2014 (Open Access Publisher’s Version)

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-11-01

November 2017 Vol. 24 No. 11 MSMR Page 39 Established following a 1998 directive, the Department of Defense Birth and Infant Health Registry...Registry) team conducts surveillance of select repro- ductive health outcomes among military families. Data are compiled from the Military Health System...adverse reproductive health outcomes. The Regis- try’s diverse research portfolio demonstrates its unique capabilities to answer a wide range of

The extent and characteristics of United Kingdom hospital pharmacists keeping, or not keeping, a professional development portfolio.

PubMed

Kostrzewski, Andrzej J; Dhillon, Soraya; Goodsman, Danë; Taylor, Kevin M G; Weinman, John A

2009-10-01

The aim of this study was to examine the use of continuing professional development (CPD) portfolios by hospital pharmacists. The objectives were to assess the extent to which pharmacists use portfolios in CPD and to examine the attitudes/beliefs which differentiate those who do and do not keep a portfolio. Participants completed two questionnaires: (1) personality traits were examined using the Big-Five questionnaire and (2) a new Pharmacist Portfolio-Engaging Behaviour Questionnaire (PPEBQ) examined the attitudes and beliefs. What constitutes a portfolio was left to the interpretation of the participants, but it was specified that the survey was about participants' views of producing written records of their professional practice for CPD. The setting was hospital pharmacists based in the London area in December 2004. Overall, 134 pharmacists (78%) returned both questionnaires, and 80 stated that they kept a portfolio and 52 stated that they did not (two questionnaires were returned spoilt). There was no significant difference in the age or number of years qualified between those with and without a portfolio. Three personality traits were linked to keeping a portfolio (conscientiousness, agreeableness and emotional stability). Pharmacists with a portfolio scored highly on the perceived behavioural control and behavioural intention scales of the PPEBQ. The Big-Five personality questionnaire is a useful tool to investigate pharmacists' use of a portfolio. Results of the PPEBQ suggested that hospital pharmacists who had a portfolio were concerned with having control over its production. However, the PPEBQ requires further development to improve its reliability. These findings have implications for the educational support of CPD.

Developing the Maternity Portfolio to promote maternal role attainment in women who have undergone artificial reproductive treatment.

PubMed

Iwata, Hiroko; Mori, Emi; Maekawa, Tomoko; Maehara, Kunie; Sakajo, Akiko; Ozawa, Harumi; Morita, Akiko

2012-12-01

The purpose of this study was to develop the Maternity Portfolio to promote maternal role attainment in women who underwent artificial reproductive treatment. The following procedures were undertaken to develop the Maternity Portfolio: (i) a literature review was conducted to identify studies and articles related to maternal diary or portfolio usage; (ii) the research members discussed objectives and usages of the Maternity Portfolio; (iii) a trial product was developed in collaboration with two pregnant women (one following artificial reproductive treatment and one infertility patient) and seven nurses, and after feedback was completed, the product was revised; and (iv) the final product of the Maternity Portfolio was patented. The final Maternity Portfolio product consisted of a 40-page booklet; it contained an information section and a patient comments section. Following artificial reproductive treatment, this booklet can be provided to women during the first trimester. Women would then be instructed to bring the Maternity Portfolio to their prenatal checkups, where a nursing intervention program would be conducted by certified nurses. Through this program and the Maternity Portfolio, participating women are expected to obtain necessary information and maternal role attainment. The Maternity Portfolio was developed to promote maternal role attainment for women who have undergone artificial reproductive treatment. The intervention study with the Maternity Portfolio is a work in progress; therefore, a future evaluation of the study will clarify both positive and negative aspects, which should facilitate refinement of the functions and qualities of the Maternity Portfolio. © 2011 The Authors. Japan Journal of Nursing Science © 2011 Japan Academy of Nursing Science.

Predictive validity of a selection centre testing non-technical skills for recruitment to training in anaesthesia.

PubMed

Gale, T C E; Roberts, M J; Sice, P J; Langton, J A; Patterson, F C; Carr, A S; Anderson, I R; Lam, W H; Davies, P R F

2010-11-01

Assessment centres are an accepted method of recruitment in industry and are gaining popularity within medicine. We describe the development and validation of a selection centre for recruitment to speciality training in anaesthesia based on an assessment centre model incorporating the rating of candidate's non-technical skills. Expert consensus identified non-technical skills suitable for assessment at the point of selection. Four stations-structured interview, portfolio review, presentation, and simulation-were developed, the latter two being realistic scenarios of work-related tasks. Evaluation of the selection centre focused on applicant and assessor feedback ratings, inter-rater agreement, and internal consistency reliability coefficients. Predictive validity was sought via correlations of selection centre scores with subsequent workplace-based ratings of appointed trainees. Two hundred and twenty-four candidates were assessed over two consecutive annual recruitment rounds; 68 were appointed and followed up during training. Candidates and assessors demonstrated strong approval of the selection centre with more than 70% of ratings 'good' or 'excellent'. Mean inter-rater agreement coefficients ranged from 0.62 to 0.77 and internal consistency reliability of the selection centre score was high (Cronbach's α=0.88-0.91). The overall selection centre score was a good predictor of workplace performance during the first year of appointment. An assessment centre model based on the rating of non-technical skills can produce a reliable and valid selection tool for recruitment to speciality training in anaesthesia. Early results on predictive validity are encouraging and justify further development and evaluation.

Portfolios in Stochastic Local Search: Efficiently Computing Most Probable Explanations in Bayesian Networks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mengshoel, Ole J.; Roth, Dan; Wilkins, David C.

2001-01-01

Portfolio methods support the combination of different algorithms and heuristics, including stochastic local search (SLS) heuristics, and have been identified as a promising approach to solve computationally hard problems. While successful in experiments, theoretical foundations and analytical results for portfolio-based SLS heuristics are less developed. This article aims to improve the understanding of the role of portfolios of heuristics in SLS. We emphasize the problem of computing most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). Algorithmically, we discuss a portfolio-based SLS algorithm for MPE computation, Stochastic Greedy Search (SGS). SGS supports the integration of different initialization operators (or initialization heuristics) and different search operators (greedy and noisy heuristics), thereby enabling new analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we introduce a novel Markov chain model tailored to portfolio-based SLS algorithms including SGS, thereby enabling us to analytically form expected hitting time results that explain empirical run time results. For a specific BN, we show the benefit of using a homogenous initialization portfolio. To further illustrate the portfolio approach, we consider novel additive search heuristics for handling determinism in the form of zero entries in conditional probability tables in BNs. Our additive approach adds rather than multiplies probabilities when computing the utility of an explanation. We motivate the additive measure by studying the dramatic impact of zero entries in conditional probability tables on the number of zero-probability explanations, which again complicates the search process. We consider the relationship between MAXSAT and MPE, and show that additive utility (or gain) is a generalization, to the probabilistic setting, of MAXSAT utility (or gain) used in the celebrated GSAT and WalkSAT algorithms and their descendants. Utilizing our Markov chain framework, we show that expected hitting time is a rational function - i.e. a ratio of two polynomials - of the probability of applying an additive search operator. Experimentally, we report on synthetically generated BNs as well as BNs from applications, and compare SGSs performance to that of Hugin, which performs BN inference by compilation to and propagation in clique trees. On synthetic networks, SGS speeds up computation by approximately two orders of magnitude compared to Hugin. In application networks, our approach is highly competitive in Bayesian networks with a high degree of determinism. In addition to showing that stochastic local search can be competitive with clique tree clustering, our empirical results provide an improved understanding of the circumstances under which portfolio-based SLS outperforms clique tree clustering and vice versa.

Mentoring portfolio use in undergraduate and postgraduate medical education.

PubMed

Dekker, Hanke; Driessen, Erik; Ter Braak, Edith; Scheele, Fedde; Slaets, Joris; Van Der Molen, Thys; Cohen-Schotanus, Janke

2009-10-01

Mentoring is widely acknowledged as being crucial for portfolio learning. The aim of this study is to examine how mentoring portfolio use has been implemented in undergraduate and postgraduate settings. The results of interviews with six key persons involved in setting up portfolio use in medical education programmes were used to develop a questionnaire, which was administered to 30 coordinators of undergraduate and postgraduate portfolio programmes in the Netherlands and Flanders. The interviews yielded four main aspects of the portfolio mentoring process--educational aims, individual meetings, small group sessions and mentor characteristics. Based on the questionnaire data, 16 undergraduate and 14 postgraduate programmes were described. Providing feedback and stimulating reflection were the main objectives of the mentoring process. Individual meetings were the favourite method for mentoring (26 programmes). Small group sessions to support the use of portfolios were held in 16 programmes, mostly in the undergraduate setting. In general, portfolio mentors were clinically qualified academic staff trained for their mentoring tasks. This study provides a variety of practical insights into implementing mentoring processes in portfolio programmes.

Directional variance adjustment: bias reduction in covariance matrices based on factor analysis with an application to portfolio optimization.

PubMed

Bartz, Daniel; Hatrick, Kerr; Hesse, Christian W; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Lemm, Steven

2013-01-01

Robust and reliable covariance estimates play a decisive role in financial and many other applications. An important class of estimators is based on factor models. Here, we show by extensive Monte Carlo simulations that covariance matrices derived from the statistical Factor Analysis model exhibit a systematic error, which is similar to the well-known systematic error of the spectrum of the sample covariance matrix. Moreover, we introduce the Directional Variance Adjustment (DVA) algorithm, which diminishes the systematic error. In a thorough empirical study for the US, European, and Hong Kong stock market we show that our proposed method leads to improved portfolio allocation.

Fireworks algorithm for mean-VaR/CVaR models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Tingting; Liu, Zhifeng

2017-10-01

Intelligent algorithms have been widely applied to portfolio optimization problems. In this paper, we introduce a novel intelligent algorithm, named fireworks algorithm, to solve the mean-VaR/CVaR model for the first time. The results show that, compared with the classical genetic algorithm, fireworks algorithm not only improves the optimization accuracy and the optimization speed, but also makes the optimal solution more stable. We repeat our experiments at different confidence levels and different degrees of risk aversion, and the results are robust. It suggests that fireworks algorithm has more advantages than genetic algorithm in solving the portfolio optimization problem, and it is feasible and promising to apply it into this field.

Directional Variance Adjustment: Bias Reduction in Covariance Matrices Based on Factor Analysis with an Application to Portfolio Optimization

PubMed Central

Bartz, Daniel; Hatrick, Kerr; Hesse, Christian W.; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Lemm, Steven

2013-01-01

Robust and reliable covariance estimates play a decisive role in financial and many other applications. An important class of estimators is based on factor models. Here, we show by extensive Monte Carlo simulations that covariance matrices derived from the statistical Factor Analysis model exhibit a systematic error, which is similar to the well-known systematic error of the spectrum of the sample covariance matrix. Moreover, we introduce the Directional Variance Adjustment (DVA) algorithm, which diminishes the systematic error. In a thorough empirical study for the US, European, and Hong Kong stock market we show that our proposed method leads to improved portfolio allocation. PMID:23844016

78 FR 15381 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission to OMB for Reinstatement of a Previously...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-11

.../dealer selection criteria, and record credit decisions regarding deposits in financial institutions... complex investment portfolios need to address many areas of the rule. Depending on these and other factors... written report of investments; e. Obtaining price quotes on securities prior to purchase or sale; f...

School Administrators' Perceptions of a Principal Preparation Program after Participating in Portfolio Defenses

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Armenta, Tony; DeVaney, Thomas

2008-01-01

A major recommendation, or mandate in some cases, handed down to principal preparation programs from accrediting agencies, state certication departments, or other bodies, is to prominently include school districts in the program. This might include Advisory Councils that include public school administrators, involving districts in the selection of…

76 FR 51442 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NYSE Arca, Inc.; Notice of Filing of Proposed Rule Change To List...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-18

...-Adviser has designed the following quantitative stock selection rules to make allocation decisions and to..., the Sub-Adviser's investment process is quantitative. Based on extensive historical research, the Sub... open-end fund's portfolio composition must be subject to procedures designed to prevent the use and...

Magnet Schools, Innate Talent and Social Justice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vopat, Mark C.

2011-01-01

Beginning in the 1970s, many school US school districts reallocated their already scarce resources from local schools to specially created magnet schools. Many of these magnet schools have some sort of entrance exam, portfolio, or audition requirement that students must pass in order to gain admission. These selective magnet schools are predicated…

Crude oil price forecasting based on hybridizing wavelet multiple linear regression model, particle swarm optimization techniques, and principal component analysis.

PubMed

Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

2014-01-01

Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series.

Crude Oil Price Forecasting Based on Hybridizing Wavelet Multiple Linear Regression Model, Particle Swarm Optimization Techniques, and Principal Component Analysis

PubMed Central

Shabri, Ani; Samsudin, Ruhaidah

2014-01-01

Crude oil prices do play significant role in the global economy and are a key input into option pricing formulas, portfolio allocation, and risk measurement. In this paper, a hybrid model integrating wavelet and multiple linear regressions (MLR) is proposed for crude oil price forecasting. In this model, Mallat wavelet transform is first selected to decompose an original time series into several subseries with different scale. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) is used in processing subseries data in MLR for crude oil price forecasting. The particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to adopt the optimal parameters of the MLR model. To assess the effectiveness of this model, daily crude oil market, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), has been used as the case study. Time series prediction capability performance of the WMLR model is compared with the MLR, ARIMA, and GARCH models using various statistics measures. The experimental results show that the proposed model outperforms the individual models in forecasting of the crude oil prices series. PMID:24895666

Optimal allocation of trend following strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grebenkov, Denis S.; Serror, Jeremy

2015-09-01

We consider a portfolio allocation problem for trend following (TF) strategies on multiple correlated assets. Under simplifying assumptions of a Gaussian market and linear TF strategies, we derive analytical formulas for the mean and variance of the portfolio return. We construct then the optimal portfolio that maximizes risk-adjusted return by accounting for inter-asset correlations. The dynamic allocation problem for n assets is shown to be equivalent to the classical static allocation problem for n2 virtual assets that include lead-lag corrections in positions of TF strategies. The respective roles of asset auto-correlations and inter-asset correlations are investigated in depth for the two-asset case and a sector model. In contrast to the principle of diversification suggesting to treat uncorrelated assets, we show that inter-asset correlations allow one to estimate apparent trends more reliably and to adjust the TF positions more efficiently. If properly accounted for, inter-asset correlations are not deteriorative but beneficial for portfolio management that can open new profit opportunities for trend followers. These concepts are illustrated using daily returns of three highly correlated futures markets: the E-mini S&P 500, Euro Stoxx 50 index, and the US 10-year T-note futures.

Defense Portfolio Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

Valuation’s Risk Simulator..............................................46 viii 6. Palisade @RISK (http://www.palisade.com...71 APPENDIX B. PALISADE @RISK MODELING DATA AND ANALYSIS..................79 A. PALISADE @RISK...values ...81 3. @RISK Model Sorted by EMV ..............................................................82 4. Palisade @RISK Data Analysis

Electronic Portfolios. [SITE 2001 Section].

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Willis, Dee Anna, Ed.

This document contains the following papers on electronic portfolios from the SITE (Society for Information Technology & Teacher Education) 2001 conference: (1) "Portfolios: The Plan, the Purpose, a Preview" (Val Christensen and others); (2) "Electronic Portfolios (EP): A How To Guide" (Jerry P. Galloway); (3)…

Professionalism, Portfolios and the Development of School Leaders.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wildy, Helen; Wallace, John

1998-01-01

Describes how two reforms--portfolio culture and teacher professionalism--converge in a systemwide program for school leaders' professional development. Investigates use of portfolios to help (Australian) principals, deputy principals, and department heads improve their performance and accountability. Participants used portfolios as evidence of…

Portfolio effects, climate change, and the persistence of small populations: analyses on the rare plant Saussurea weberi.

PubMed

Abbott, Ronald E; Doak, Daniel F; Peterson, Megan L

2017-04-01

The mechanisms that stabilize small populations in the face of environmental variation are crucial to their long-term persistence. Building from diversity-stability concepts in community ecology, within-population diversity is gaining attention as an important component of population stability. Genetic and microhabitat variation within populations can generate diverse responses to common environmental fluctuations, dampening temporal variability across the population as a whole through portfolio effects. Yet, the potential for portfolio effects to operate at small scales within populations or to change with systematic environmental shifts, such as climate change, remain largely unexplored. We tracked the abundance of a rare alpine perennial plant, Saussurea weberi, in 49 1-m 2 plots within a single population over 20 yr. We estimated among-plot correlations in log annual growth rate to test for population-level synchrony and quantify portfolio effects across the 20-yr study period and also in 5-yr subsets based on June temperature quartiles. Asynchrony among plots, due to different plot-level responses to June temperature, reduced overall fluctuations in abundance and the probability of decline in population models, even when accounting for the effects of density dependence on dynamics. However, plots became more synchronous and portfolio effects decreased during the warmest years of the study, suggesting that future climate warming may erode stabilizing mechanisms in populations of this rare plant. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Assessment of current undergraduate anesthesia course in a Saudi University

PubMed Central

Shams, Tarek; El-Masry, Ragaa; al Wadani, Hamed; Amr, Mostafa

2013-01-01

Background: The assessment of the anesthesia course in our university comprises Objective Structured Clinical Examinations (OSCEs), in conjunction with portfolio and multiple-choice questions (MCQ). The objective of this study was to evaluate the outcome of different forms of anesthesia course assessment among 5th year medical students in our university, as well as study the influence of gender on student performance in anesthesia. Methods: We examined the performance of 154, 5th year medical students through OSCE, portfolios, and MCQ. Results: The score ranges in the portfolio, OSCE, and MCQs were 16-24, 4.2-28.9, and 15.5-44.5, respectively. There was highly significant difference in scores in relation to gender in all assessments other than the written one (P=0.000 for Portfolio, OSCE, and Total exam, whereas P=0.164 for written exam). In the generated linear regression model, OSCE alone could predict 86.4% of the total mark if used alone. In addition, if the score of the written examination is added, OSCE will drop to 57.2% and the written exam will be 56.8% of the total mark. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that different clinical methods used to assess medical students during their anesthesia course were consistent and integrated. The performance of female was superior to male in OSCE and portfolio. This information is the basis for improving educational and assessment standards in anesthesiology and for introducing a platform for developing modern learning media in countries with dearth of anesthesia personnel. PMID:23956708

Assessment of current undergraduate anesthesia course in a Saudi University.

PubMed

Shams, Tarek; El-Masry, Ragaa; Al Wadani, Hamed; Amr, Mostafa

2013-04-01

The assessment of the anesthesia course in our university comprises Objective Structured Clinical Examinations (OSCEs), in conjunction with portfolio and multiple-choice questions (MCQ). The objective of this study was to evaluate the outcome of different forms of anesthesia course assessment among 5(th) year medical students in our university, as well as study the influence of gender on student performance in anesthesia. We examined the performance of 154, 5(th) year medical students through OSCE, portfolios, and MCQ. The score ranges in the portfolio, OSCE, and MCQs were 16-24, 4.2-28.9, and 15.5-44.5, respectively. There was highly significant difference in scores in relation to gender in all assessments other than the written one (P=0.000 for Portfolio, OSCE, and Total exam, whereas P=0.164 for written exam). In the generated linear regression model, OSCE alone could predict 86.4% of the total mark if used alone. In addition, if the score of the written examination is added, OSCE will drop to 57.2% and the written exam will be 56.8% of the total mark. This study demonstrates that different clinical methods used to assess medical students during their anesthesia course were consistent and integrated. The performance of female was superior to male in OSCE and portfolio. This information is the basis for improving educational and assessment standards in anesthesiology and for introducing a platform for developing modern learning media in countries with dearth of anesthesia personnel.

Portfolio-Scale Optimization of Customer Energy Efficiency Incentive and Marketing: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-13-535

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brackney, Larry J.

North East utility National Grid (NGrid) is developing a portfolio-scale application of OpenStudio designed to optimize incentive and marketing expenditures for their energy efficiency (EE) programs. NGrid wishes to leverage a combination of geographic information systems (GIS), public records, customer data, and content from the Building Component Library (BCL) to form a JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) input file that is consumed by an OpenStudio-based expert system for automated model generation. A baseline model for each customer building will be automatically tuned using electricity and gas consumption data, and a set of energy conservation measures (ECMs) associated with each NGrid incentivemore » program will be applied to the model. The simulated energy performance and return on investment (ROI) will be compared with customer hurdle rates and available incentives to A) optimize the incentive required to overcome the customer hurdle rate and B) determine if marketing activity associated with the specific ECM is warranted for that particular customer. Repeated across their portfolio, this process will enable NGrid to substantially optimize their marketing and incentive expenditures, targeting those customers that will likely adopt and benefit from specific EE programs.« less

Cross-sectional test of the Fama-French three-factor model: Evidence from Bangladesh stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, Md. Zobaer; Kamil, Anton Abdulbasah

2014-09-01

Stock market is an important part of a country's economy. It supports the country's economic development and progress by encouraging the efficiency and profitability of firms. This research was designed to examine the risk-return association of companies in the Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) market of Bangladesh by using the Fama-French three-factor model structure. The model is based on three factors, which are stock beta, SMB (difference in returns of the portfolio with small market capitalisation minus that with big market capitalisation) and HML (difference in returns of the portfolio with high book-to-market ratio minus that with low book-to-market ratio). This study focused on the DSE market as it is one of the frontier emerging stock markets of South Asia. For this study, monthly stock returns from 71 non-financial companies were used for the period of January 2002 to December 2011. DSI Index was used as a proxy for the market portfolio and Bangladesh government 3-Month T-bill rate was used as the proxy for the risk-free asset. It was found that large capital stocks outperform small capital stocks and stocks with lower book-to-market ratios outperform stocks with higher book-to-market ratios in the context of Bangladesh stock market.

Student Teaching Portfolios: A Tool for Promoting Reflective Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borko, Hilda; Michalec, Paul; Timmons, Maria; Siddle, Jean

1997-01-01

Examines student teaching portfolios in action within preservice teacher education, describing how the University of Colorado mandated student teaching portfolios for preservice educators. A study examined whether portfolio construction would enhance student teachers' reflection on practice. Data from interviews and students' written reflections…

Assessing Pre-Service Candidates' Web-Based Electronic Portfolios.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lamson, Sharon; Thomas, Kelli R.; Aldrich, Jennifer; King, Andy

This paper describes processes undertaken by Central Missouri State University's Department of Curriculum and Instruction to prepare teacher candidates to create Web-based professional portfolios, Central's expectations for content coverage within the electronic portfolios, and evaluation procedures. It also presents data on portfolio construction…

Portfolio Assessment and Quality Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Youb; Yazdian, Lisa Sensale

2014-01-01

Our article focuses on using portfolio assessment to craft quality teaching. Extant research literature on portfolio assessment suggests that the primary purpose of assessment is to serve learning, and portfolio assessments facilitate the process of making linkages among assessment, curriculum, and student learning (Asp, 2000; Bergeron, Wermuth,…

Portfolio Analysis for Vector Calculus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kaplan, Samuel R.

2015-01-01

Classic stock portfolio analysis provides an applied context for Lagrange multipliers that undergraduate students appreciate. Although modern methods of portfolio analysis are beyond the scope of vector calculus, classic methods reinforce the utility of this material. This paper discusses how to introduce classic stock portfolio analysis in a…

The Use of Portfolios in US Pharmacy Schools

PubMed Central

Cumberland, Denise M.

2018-01-01

Objective. To conduct a review of the pharmacy literature on the use of portfolios in US pharmacy schools. Findings. This study provides examples of how pharmacy schools are using portfolios in various parts and across their curricula, however, assessment/outcome data is lacking. These examples can be used as a starting point for schools as they begin to design their own use of portfolios. Overall, students indicated that the use of portfolios is important in their professional development, but significant time is needed to complete. Summary. Things to consider when implementing a portfolio system include how it will be used, who will review it, and what resources will be needed to sustain the project. It is important for schools to consider these items at the start of the process to ensure the portfolio process that is created is useful for assessing the overall programmatic or course outcomes being proposed by their use. More scholarly work needs to be published on the use of portfolios. PMID:29692438

The Face of Wellness: aspirational vision of health, renewing health behavior change process and balanced portfolio approach to planning change strategies.

PubMed

O'Donnell, Michael P

2008-01-01

Health promotion needs to be made more practical and more memorable so that practitioners are not confused or overwhelmed by the theoretical and technical aspects of assuring the effectiveness of programming efforts. In this edition of The Art of Health Promotion the Editor-in-Chief of the American Journal of Health Promotion presents a planning strategy consisting of an aspirational model of health, a renewing behavior change process and a portfolio balancing approach to strategy planning.

An index for drought induced financial risk in the mining industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonnafous, L.; Lall, U.; Siegel, J.

2017-02-01

Water scarcity has emerged as a potential risk for mining operations. High capital spending for desalination and water conflicts leading to asset stranding have recently occurred. Investors in mining companies are interested in the exposure to such risks across portfolios of mining assets (whether the practical at-site consequences are foregone production, higher OPEX and CAPEX and ensuing lost revenues, or asset-stranding). In this paper, an index of the potential financial exposure of a portfolio is developed and its application is illustrated. Since the likely loss at each mine is hard to estimate a priori, one needs a proxy for potential loss. The index considers drought duration, severity and frequency (defined by a return-level in years) at each mining asset, and provides a measure of financial exposure through weighing of production or Net Asset Value. Changes in human needs are not considered, but are relevant, and could be incorporated if global data on mine and other water use were available at the appropriate resolution. Potential for contemporaneous drought incidence across sites in a portfolio is considered specifically. Through an appropriate choice of drought thresholds, an analyst can customize a scenario to assess potential losses in production value or profits, or whether conflicts could emerge that would lead to stranded assets or capital expenditure to secure alternate water supplies. Global climate data sets that allow a customized development of such an index are identified, and selected mining company portfolios are scored as to the risk associated with one publicly available drought index.

Making more of it! Medical students' motives for voluntarily keeping an extended portfolio.

PubMed

Deketelaere, Ann; Kelchtermans, Geert; Druine, Nathalie; Vandermeersch, Evelyn; Struyf, Elke; De Leyn, Paul

2007-10-01

Although medical students' use of portfolios has been studied from many angles, little is known about their motivations. This article explores medical students' motives for voluntarily compiling a learning portfolio that widely exceeded the assignments. Content analysis was performed on 22 (8%; n = 22/269) extensive portfolios, followed by a semi-structured interview with 11 medical students. Building on the theoretical work of Simons et al. (2004), interpretative analysis was used to reconstruct and understand the medical students' motives for the effort they put into the portfolios. Compiling an elaborate portfolio is mainly instigated by a personal instrumentality (internally regulated instrumental motivation). These medical students reflected on what they considered important and useful. The portfolio was a tool to achieve self-set goals, yet the specific goals turned out to be very different among the students, reflecting their particular needs and experiences during clerkship. Motivation theory shows that students who are internally regulated use more deep-level learning strategies and perform better. Internally regulated motivation mainly occurs when students use the portfolio to achieve their self-set goals. The formal portfolio assignments, enforced by the medical school, were more related with externally regulated motivation.

Problems, Pitfalls, and Benefits of Portfolios.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stone, Bernice A.

1998-01-01

Two groups of student teachers, one school-based and one university-based, were introduced to portfolio construction. School-based students received more guidance in and time for portfolio construction. Surveys and interviews indicated that the extra time and guidance helped school-based students, who benefited more from portfolios than…

Portfolio as Practice: The Narratives of Emerging Teachers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Darling, L. Farr

2001-01-01

Portfolio construction is a complex social practice with intentions, rules, and standards. This definition is not typically found in teacher education literature and has implications for evaluating students' portfolios. The paper examines teacher education students' recollections of creating portfolios in one Canadian program and argues that…

Linking Assessment to Undergraduate Student Capabilities through Portfolio Examination

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Sullivan, Anthony J.; Harris, Peter; Hughes, Chris S.; Toohey, Susan M.; Balasooriya, Chinthaka; Velan, Gary; Kumar, Rakesh K.; McNeil, H. Patrick

2012-01-01

Portfolios are an established method of assessment, although concerns do exist around their validity for capabilities such as reflection and self-direction. This article describes an e-portfolio which closely aligns learning and reflection to graduate capabilities, incorporating features that address concerns about portfolios. Students are…

Does a summative portfolio foster the development of capabilities such as reflective practice and understanding ethics? An evaluation from two medical schools.

PubMed

O'Sullivan, Anthony J; Howe, Amanda C; Miles, Susan; Harris, Peter; Hughes, Chris S; Jones, Philip; Scicluna, Helen; Leinster, Sam J

2012-01-01

Portfolios need to be evaluated to determine whether they encourage students to develop in capabilities such as reflective practice and ethical judgment. The aims of this study were (i) to determine whether preparing a portfolio helps promote students' development in a range of capabilities including understanding ethical and legal principles, reflective practice and effective communication, and (ii) to determine to what extent the format of the portfolio affected the outcome by comparing the experiences of students at two different medical schools. A questionnaire was designed to evaluate undergraduate medical students' experiences of completing a portfolio at two medical schools. A total of 526 (45% response rate) students answered the on-line questionnaire. Students from both medical schools gave the highest ranking for the portfolio as a trigger for reflective practice. 63% of students agreed their portfolio helped them develop reflective practice skills (p < 0.001), whereas only 22% disagreed. 48% of students agreed portfolios helped them understand ethical and legal principles whereas 29% disagreed (p < 0.001). In contrast, only 34% of students thought the portfolio helped them to develop effective communication. Students perceive portfolio preparation as an effective learning tool for the development of capabilities such as understanding ethical and legal principles and reflective practice, whereas other capabilities such as effective communication require complementary techniques and other modes of assessment.

Profitability of Contrarian Strategies in the Chinese Stock Market

PubMed Central

Shi, Huai-Long; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2015-01-01

This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or longer than 12 months and the annualized return of contrarian portfolios increases with the estimation and holding horizons. We perform subperiod analysis and find that the long-term contrarian effect is significant in both bullish and bearish states, while the short-term contrarian effect disappears in bullish states. We compare the performance of contrarian portfolios based on different grouping manners in the estimation period and unveil that decile grouping outperforms quintile grouping and tertile grouping, which is more evident and robust in the long run. Generally, loser portfolios and winner portfolios have positive returns and loser portfolios perform much better than winner portfolios. Both loser and winner portfolios in bullish states perform better than those in the whole sample period. In contrast, loser and winner portfolios have smaller returns in bearish states, in which loser portfolio returns are significant only in the long term and winner portfolio returns become insignificant. These results are robust to the one-month skipping between the estimation and holding periods and for the two stock exchanges. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market is not efficient in the weak form. These findings also have obvious practical implications for financial practitioners. PMID:26368537

Profitability of Contrarian Strategies in the Chinese Stock Market.

PubMed

Shi, Huai-Long; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing

2015-01-01

This paper reexamines the profitability of loser, winner and contrarian portfolios in the Chinese stock market using monthly data of all stocks traded on the Shanghai Stock Exchange and Shenzhen Stock Exchange covering the period from January 1997 to December 2012. We find evidence of short-term and long-term contrarian profitability in the whole sample period when the estimation and holding horizons are 1 month or longer than 12 months and the annualized return of contrarian portfolios increases with the estimation and holding horizons. We perform subperiod analysis and find that the long-term contrarian effect is significant in both bullish and bearish states, while the short-term contrarian effect disappears in bullish states. We compare the performance of contrarian portfolios based on different grouping manners in the estimation period and unveil that decile grouping outperforms quintile grouping and tertile grouping, which is more evident and robust in the long run. Generally, loser portfolios and winner portfolios have positive returns and loser portfolios perform much better than winner portfolios. Both loser and winner portfolios in bullish states perform better than those in the whole sample period. In contrast, loser and winner portfolios have smaller returns in bearish states, in which loser portfolio returns are significant only in the long term and winner portfolio returns become insignificant. These results are robust to the one-month skipping between the estimation and holding periods and for the two stock exchanges. Our findings show that the Chinese stock market is not efficient in the weak form. These findings also have obvious practical implications for financial practitioners.