Hidden Markov models for fault detection in dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smyth, Padhraic J. (Inventor)

1995-01-01

The invention is a system failure monitoring method and apparatus which learns the symptom-fault mapping directly from training data. The invention first estimates the state of the system at discrete intervals in time. A feature vector x of dimension k is estimated from sets of successive windows of sensor data. A pattern recognition component then models the instantaneous estimate of the posterior class probability given the features, p(w(sub i) (vertical bar)/x), 1 less than or equal to i isless than or equal to m. Finally, a hidden Markov model is used to take advantage of temporal context and estimate class probabilities conditioned on recent past history. In this hierarchical pattern of information flow, the time series data is transformed and mapped into a categorical representation (the fault classes) and integrated over time to enable robust decision-making.

Hidden Markov models for fault detection in dynamic systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smyth, Padhraic J. (Inventor)

1993-01-01

The invention is a system failure monitoring method and apparatus which learns the symptom-fault mapping directly from training data. The invention first estimates the state of the system at discrete intervals in time. A feature vector x of dimension k is estimated from sets of successive windows of sensor data. A pattern recognition component then models the instantaneous estimate of the posterior class probability given the features, p(w(sub i) perpendicular to x), 1 less than or equal to i is less than or equal to m. Finally, a hidden Markov model is used to take advantage of temporal context and estimate class probabilities conditioned on recent past history. In this hierarchical pattern of information flow, the time series data is transformed and mapped into a categorical representation (the fault classes) and integrated over time to enable robust decision-making.

The estimation of tree posterior probabilities using conditional clade probability distributions.

PubMed

Larget, Bret

2013-07-01

In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample.

Multiclass Posterior Probability Twin SVM for Motor Imagery EEG Classification.

PubMed

She, Qingshan; Ma, Yuliang; Meng, Ming; Luo, Zhizeng

2015-01-01

Motor imagery electroencephalography is widely used in the brain-computer interface systems. Due to inherent characteristics of electroencephalography signals, accurate and real-time multiclass classification is always challenging. In order to solve this problem, a multiclass posterior probability solution for twin SVM is proposed by the ranking continuous output and pairwise coupling in this paper. First, two-class posterior probability model is constructed to approximate the posterior probability by the ranking continuous output techniques and Platt's estimating method. Secondly, a solution of multiclass probabilistic outputs for twin SVM is provided by combining every pair of class probabilities according to the method of pairwise coupling. Finally, the proposed method is compared with multiclass SVM and twin SVM via voting, and multiclass posterior probability SVM using different coupling approaches. The efficacy on the classification accuracy and time complexity of the proposed method has been demonstrated by both the UCI benchmark datasets and real world EEG data from BCI Competition IV Dataset 2a, respectively.

On the accuracy and reproducibility of a novel probabilistic atlas-based generation for calculation of head attenuation maps on integrated PET/MR scanners.

PubMed

Chen, Kevin T; Izquierdo-Garcia, David; Poynton, Clare B; Chonde, Daniel B; Catana, Ciprian

2017-03-01

To propose an MR-based method for generating continuous-valued head attenuation maps and to assess its accuracy and reproducibility. Demonstrating that novel MR-based photon attenuation correction methods are both accurate and reproducible is essential prior to using them routinely in research and clinical studies on integrated PET/MR scanners. Continuous-valued linear attenuation coefficient maps ("μ-maps") were generated by combining atlases that provided the prior probability of voxel positions belonging to a certain tissue class (air, soft tissue, or bone) and an MR intensity-based likelihood classifier to produce posterior probability maps of tissue classes. These probabilities were used as weights to generate the μ-maps. The accuracy of this probabilistic atlas-based continuous-valued μ-map ("PAC-map") generation method was assessed by calculating the voxel-wise absolute relative change (RC) between the MR-based and scaled CT-based attenuation-corrected PET images. To assess reproducibility, we performed pair-wise comparisons of the RC values obtained from the PET images reconstructed using the μ-maps generated from the data acquired at three time points. The proposed method produced continuous-valued μ-maps that qualitatively reflected the variable anatomy in patients with brain tumor and agreed well with the scaled CT-based μ-maps. The absolute RC comparing the resulting PET volumes was 1.76 ± 2.33 %, quantitatively demonstrating that the method is accurate. Additionally, we also showed that the method is highly reproducible, the mean RC value for the PET images reconstructed using the μ-maps obtained at the three visits being 0.65 ± 0.95 %. Accurate and highly reproducible continuous-valued head μ-maps can be generated from MR data using a probabilistic atlas-based approach.

SU-G-JeP2-02: A Unifying Multi-Atlas Approach to Electron Density Mapping Using Multi-Parametric MRI for Radiation Treatment Planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ren, S; Tianjin University, Tianjin; Hara, W

Purpose: MRI has a number of advantages over CT as a primary modality for radiation treatment planning (RTP). However, one key bottleneck problem still remains, which is the lack of electron density information in MRI. In the work, a reliable method to map electron density is developed by leveraging the differential contrast of multi-parametric MRI. Methods: We propose a probabilistic Bayesian approach for electron density mapping based on T1 and T2-weighted MRI, using multiple patients as atlases. For each voxel, we compute two conditional probabilities: (1) electron density given its image intensity on T1 and T2-weighted MR images, and (2)more » electron density given its geometric location in a reference anatomy. The two sources of information (image intensity and spatial location) are combined into a unifying posterior probability density function using the Bayesian formalism. The mean value of the posterior probability density function provides the estimated electron density. Results: We evaluated the method on 10 head and neck patients and performed leave-one-out cross validation (9 patients as atlases and remaining 1 as test). The proposed method significantly reduced the errors in electron density estimation, with a mean absolute HU error of 138, compared with 193 for the T1-weighted intensity approach and 261 without density correction. For bone detection (HU>200), the proposed method had an accuracy of 84% and a sensitivity of 73% at specificity of 90% (AUC = 87%). In comparison, the AUC for bone detection is 73% and 50% using the intensity approach and without density correction, respectively. Conclusion: The proposed unifying method provides accurate electron density estimation and bone detection based on multi-parametric MRI of the head with highly heterogeneous anatomy. This could allow for accurate dose calculation and reference image generation for patient setup in MRI-based radiation treatment planning.« less

Potential fields on the ventricular surface of the exposed dog heart during normal excitation.

PubMed

Arisi, G; Macchi, E; Baruffi, S; Spaggiari, S; Taccardi, B

1983-06-01

We studied the normal spread of excitation on the anterior and posterior ventricular surface of open-chest dogs by recording unipolar electrograms from an array of 1124 electrodes spaced 2 mm apart. The array had the shape of the ventricular surface of the heart. The electrograms were processed by a computer and displayed as epicardial equipotential maps at 1-msec intervals. Isochrone maps also were drawn. Several new features of epicardial potential fields were identified: (1) a high number of breakthrough points; (2) the topography, apparent widths, velocities of the wavefronts and the related potential drop; (3) the topography of positive potential peaks in relation to the wavefronts. Fifteen to 24 breakthrough points were located on the anterior, and 10 to 13 on the posterior ventricular surface. Some were in previously described locations and many others in new locations. Specifically, 3 to 5 breakthrough points appeared close to the atrioventricular groove on the anterior right ventricle and 2 to 4 on the posterior heart aspect; these basal breakthrough points appeared when a large portion of ventricular surface was still unexcited. Due to the presence of numerous breakthrough points on the anterior and posterior aspect of the heart which had not previously been described, the spread of excitation on the ventricular surface was "mosaic-like," with activation wavefronts spreading in all directions, rather than radially from the two breakthrough points, as traditionally described. The positive potential peaks which lay ahead of the expanding wavefronts moved along preferential directions which were probably related to the myocardial fiber direction.

A Bayesian pick-the-winner design in a randomized phase II clinical trial.

PubMed

Chen, Dung-Tsa; Huang, Po-Yu; Lin, Hui-Yi; Chiappori, Alberto A; Gabrilovich, Dmitry I; Haura, Eric B; Antonia, Scott J; Gray, Jhanelle E

2017-10-24

Many phase II clinical trials evaluate unique experimental drugs/combinations through multi-arm design to expedite the screening process (early termination of ineffective drugs) and to identify the most effective drug (pick the winner) to warrant a phase III trial. Various statistical approaches have been developed for the pick-the-winner design but have been criticized for lack of objective comparison among the drug agents. We developed a Bayesian pick-the-winner design by integrating a Bayesian posterior probability with Simon two-stage design in a randomized two-arm clinical trial. The Bayesian posterior probability, as the rule to pick the winner, is defined as probability of the response rate in one arm higher than in the other arm. The posterior probability aims to determine the winner when both arms pass the second stage of the Simon two-stage design. When both arms are competitive (i.e., both passing the second stage), the Bayesian posterior probability performs better to correctly identify the winner compared with the Fisher exact test in the simulation study. In comparison to a standard two-arm randomized design, the Bayesian pick-the-winner design has a higher power to determine a clear winner. In application to two studies, the approach is able to perform statistical comparison of two treatment arms and provides a winner probability (Bayesian posterior probability) to statistically justify the winning arm. We developed an integrated design that utilizes Bayesian posterior probability, Simon two-stage design, and randomization into a unique setting. It gives objective comparisons between the arms to determine the winner.

Morphology, morphometry and probability mapping of the pars opercularis of the inferior frontal gyrus: an in vivo MRI analysis.

PubMed

Tomaiuolo, F; MacDonald, J D; Caramanos, Z; Posner, G; Chiavaras, M; Evans, A C; Petrides, M

1999-09-01

The pars opercularis occupies the posterior part of the inferior frontal gyrus. Electrical stimulation or damage of this region interferes with language production. The present study investigated the morphology and morphometry of the pars opercularis in 108 normal adult human cerebral hemispheres by means of magnetic resonance imaging. The brain images were transformed into a standardized proportional steoreotaxic space (i.e. that of Talairach and Tournoux) in order to minimize interindividual brain size variability. There was considerable variability in the shape and location of the pars opercularis across brains and between cerebral hemispheres. There was no significant difference or correlation between left and right hemisphere grey matter volumes. There was also no significant difference between sex and side of asymmetry of the pars opercularis. A probability map of the pars opercularis was constructed by averaging its location and extent in each individual normalized brain into Talairach space to aid in localization of activity changes in functional neuroimaging studies.

Pure E and B polarization maps via Wiener filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunn, Emory F.; Wandelt, Benjamin

2017-08-01

In order to draw scientific conclusions from observations of cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization, it is necessary to separate the contributions of the E and B components of the data. For data with incomplete sky coverage, there are ambiguous modes, which can be sourced by either E or B signals. Techniques exist for producing "pure" E and B maps, which are guaranteed to be free of cross-contamination, although the standard method, which involves constructing an eigenbasis, has a high computational cost. We show that such pure maps can be thought of as resulting from the application of a Wiener filter to the data. This perspective leads to far more efficient methods of producing pure maps. Moreover, by expressing the idea of purification in the general framework of Wiener filtering (i.e., maximization of a posterior probability), it leads to a variety of generalizations of the notion of pure E and B maps, e.g., accounting for noise or other contaminants in the data as well as correlations with temperature anisotropy.

A Probabilistic Strategy for Understanding Action Selection

PubMed Central

Kim, Byounghoon; Basso, Michele A.

2010-01-01

Brain regions involved in transforming sensory signals into movement commands are the likely sites where decisions are formed. Once formed, a decision must be read-out from the activity of populations of neurons to produce a choice of action. How this occurs remains unresolved. We recorded from four superior colliculus (SC) neurons simultaneously while monkeys performed a target selection task. We implemented three models to gain insight into the computational principles underlying population coding of action selection. We compared the population vector average (PVA), winner-takes-all (WTA) and a Bayesian model, maximum a posteriori estimate (MAP) to determine which predicted choices most often. The probabilistic model predicted more trials correctly than both the WTA and the PVA. The MAP model predicted 81.88% whereas WTA predicted 71.11% and PVA/OLE predicted the least number of trials at 55.71 and 69.47%. Recovering MAP estimates using simulated, non-uniform priors that correlated with monkeys’ choice performance, improved the accuracy of the model by 2.88%. A dynamic analysis revealed that the MAP estimate evolved over time and the posterior probability of the saccade choice reached a maximum at the time of the saccade. MAP estimates also scaled with choice performance accuracy. Although there was overlap in the prediction abilities of all the models, we conclude that movement choice from populations of neurons may be best understood by considering frameworks based on probability. PMID:20147560

MapReduce Based Parallel Bayesian Network for Manufacturing Quality Control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zheng, Mao-Kuan; Ming, Xin-Guo; Zhang, Xian-Yu; Li, Guo-Ming

2017-09-01

Increasing complexity of industrial products and manufacturing processes have challenged conventional statistics based quality management approaches in the circumstances of dynamic production. A Bayesian network and big data analytics integrated approach for manufacturing process quality analysis and control is proposed. Based on Hadoop distributed architecture and MapReduce parallel computing model, big volume and variety quality related data generated during the manufacturing process could be dealt with. Artificial intelligent algorithms, including Bayesian network learning, classification and reasoning, are embedded into the Reduce process. Relying on the ability of the Bayesian network in dealing with dynamic and uncertain problem and the parallel computing power of MapReduce, Bayesian network of impact factors on quality are built based on prior probability distribution and modified with posterior probability distribution. A case study on hull segment manufacturing precision management for ship and offshore platform building shows that computing speed accelerates almost directly proportionally to the increase of computing nodes. It is also proved that the proposed model is feasible for locating and reasoning of root causes, forecasting of manufacturing outcome, and intelligent decision for precision problem solving. The integration of bigdata analytics and BN method offers a whole new perspective in manufacturing quality control.

Nonlinear Demodulation and Channel Coding in EBPSK Scheme

PubMed Central

Chen, Xianqing; Wu, Lenan

2012-01-01

The extended binary phase shift keying (EBPSK) is an efficient modulation technique, and a special impacting filter (SIF) is used in its demodulator to improve the bit error rate (BER) performance. However, the conventional threshold decision cannot achieve the optimum performance, and the SIF brings more difficulty in obtaining the posterior probability for LDPC decoding. In this paper, we concentrate not only on reducing the BER of demodulation, but also on providing accurate posterior probability estimates (PPEs). A new approach for the nonlinear demodulation based on the support vector machine (SVM) classifier is introduced. The SVM method which selects only a few sampling points from the filter output was used for getting PPEs. The simulation results show that the accurate posterior probability can be obtained with this method and the BER performance can be improved significantly by applying LDPC codes. Moreover, we analyzed the effect of getting the posterior probability with different methods and different sampling rates. We show that there are more advantages of the SVM method under bad condition and it is less sensitive to the sampling rate than other methods. Thus, SVM is an effective method for EBPSK demodulation and getting posterior probability for LDPC decoding. PMID:23213281

Nonlinear demodulation and channel coding in EBPSK scheme.

PubMed

Chen, Xianqing; Wu, Lenan

2012-01-01

The extended binary phase shift keying (EBPSK) is an efficient modulation technique, and a special impacting filter (SIF) is used in its demodulator to improve the bit error rate (BER) performance. However, the conventional threshold decision cannot achieve the optimum performance, and the SIF brings more difficulty in obtaining the posterior probability for LDPC decoding. In this paper, we concentrate not only on reducing the BER of demodulation, but also on providing accurate posterior probability estimates (PPEs). A new approach for the nonlinear demodulation based on the support vector machine (SVM) classifier is introduced. The SVM method which selects only a few sampling points from the filter output was used for getting PPEs. The simulation results show that the accurate posterior probability can be obtained with this method and the BER performance can be improved significantly by applying LDPC codes. Moreover, we analyzed the effect of getting the posterior probability with different methods and different sampling rates. We show that there are more advantages of the SVM method under bad condition and it is less sensitive to the sampling rate than other methods. Thus, SVM is an effective method for EBPSK demodulation and getting posterior probability for LDPC decoding.

Gaussianization for fast and accurate inference from cosmological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuhmann, Robert L.; Joachimi, Benjamin; Peiris, Hiranya V.

2016-06-01

We present a method to transform multivariate unimodal non-Gaussian posterior probability densities into approximately Gaussian ones via non-linear mappings, such as Box-Cox transformations and generalizations thereof. This permits an analytical reconstruction of the posterior from a point sample, like a Markov chain, and simplifies the subsequent joint analysis with other experiments. This way, a multivariate posterior density can be reported efficiently, by compressing the information contained in Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples. Further, the model evidence integral (I.e. the marginal likelihood) can be computed analytically. This method is analogous to the search for normal parameters in the cosmic microwave background, but is more general. The search for the optimally Gaussianizing transformation is performed computationally through a maximum-likelihood formalism; its quality can be judged by how well the credible regions of the posterior are reproduced. We demonstrate that our method outperforms kernel density estimates in this objective. Further, we select marginal posterior samples from Planck data with several distinct strongly non-Gaussian features, and verify the reproduction of the marginal contours. To demonstrate evidence computation, we Gaussianize the joint distribution of data from weak lensing and baryon acoustic oscillations, for different cosmological models, and find a preference for flat Λcold dark matter. Comparing to values computed with the Savage-Dickey density ratio, and Population Monte Carlo, we find good agreement of our method within the spread of the other two.

Within-herd prevalence and clinical incidence distributions of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis infection on dairy herds in Chile.

PubMed

Verdugo, Cristobal; Valdes, Maria Francisca; Salgado, Miguel

2018-06-01

This study aimed to estimate the distributions of the within-herd true prevalence (TP) and the annual clinical incidence proportion (CIp) of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in dairy cattle herds in Chile. Forty two commercial herds with antecedents of MAP infection were randomly selected to participate in the study. In small herds (≤30 cows), serum samples were collected from all animals present. Whereas, in larger herds, milk or serum samples were collected from all milking cows with 2 or more parities. Samples were analysed using the Pourquier® ELISA PARATUBERCULOSIS (Insitute Pourquier, France) test. Moreover, a questionnaire gathering information on management practices and the frequency of clinical cases, compatible with paratuberculosis (in the previous 12 months), was applied on the sampling date. A Bayesian latent class analysis was used to obtain TP and clinical incidence posterior distributions. The model adjusts for uncertainty in test sensitivity (serum or milk) and specificity, and prior TP & CIp estimates. A total of 4963 animals were tested, with an average contribution of 124 samples per herd. A mean apparent prevalence of 6.3% (95% confidence interval: 4.0-8.0%) was observed. Model outputs indicated an overall TP posterior distribution, across herds, with a median of 13.1% (95% posterior probability interval (PPI); 3.2-38.1%). A high TP variability was observed between herds. CIp presented a posterior median of 1.1% (95% PPI; 0.2-4.6%). Model results complement information missing from previously conducted epidemiological studies in the sector, and they could be used for further assessment of the disease impact and planning of control programs. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clinical Correlations of Brain Lesion Location in Multiple Sclerosis: Voxel-Based Analysis of a Large Clinical Trial Dataset.

PubMed

Altermatt, Anna; Gaetano, Laura; Magon, Stefano; Häring, Dieter A; Tomic, Davorka; Wuerfel, Jens; Radue, Ernst-Wilhelm; Kappos, Ludwig; Sprenger, Till

2018-05-29

There is a limited correlation between white matter (WM) lesion load as determined by magnetic resonance imaging and disability in multiple sclerosis (MS). The reasons for this so-called clinico-radiological paradox are diverse and may, at least partly, relate to the fact that not just the overall lesion burden, but also the exact anatomical location of lesions predict the severity and type of disability. We aimed at studying the relationship between lesion distribution and disability using a voxel-based lesion probability mapping approach in a very large dataset of MS patients. T2-weighted lesion masks of 2348 relapsing-remitting MS patients were spatially normalized to standard stereotaxic space by non-linear registration. Relations between supratentorial WM lesion locations and disability measures were assessed using a non-parametric ANCOVA (Expanded Disability Status Scale [EDSS]; Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite, and subscores; Modified Fatigue Impact Scale) or multinomial ordinal logistic regression (EDSS functional subscores). Data from 1907 (81%) patients were included in the analysis because of successful registration. The lesion mapping showed similar areas to be associated with the different disability scales: periventricular regions in temporal, frontal, and limbic lobes were predictive, mainly affecting the posterior thalamic radiation, the anterior, posterior, and superior parts of the corona radiata. In summary, significant associations between lesion location and clinical scores were found in periventricular areas. Such lesion clusters appear to be associated with impairment of different physical and cognitive abilities, probably because they affect commissural and long projection fibers, which are relevant WM pathways supporting many different brain functions.

Bayes factor and posterior probability: Complementary statistical evidence to p-value.

PubMed

Lin, Ruitao; Yin, Guosheng

2015-09-01

As a convention, a p-value is often computed in hypothesis testing and compared with the nominal level of 0.05 to determine whether to reject the null hypothesis. Although the smaller the p-value, the more significant the statistical test, it is difficult to perceive the p-value in a probability scale and quantify it as the strength of the data against the null hypothesis. In contrast, the Bayesian posterior probability of the null hypothesis has an explicit interpretation of how strong the data support the null. We make a comparison of the p-value and the posterior probability by considering a recent clinical trial. The results show that even when we reject the null hypothesis, there is still a substantial probability (around 20%) that the null is true. Not only should we examine whether the data would have rarely occurred under the null hypothesis, but we also need to know whether the data would be rare under the alternative. As a result, the p-value only provides one side of the information, for which the Bayes factor and posterior probability may offer complementary evidence. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

QTL fine mapping with Bayes C(π): a simulation study.

PubMed

van den Berg, Irene; Fritz, Sébastien; Boichard, Didier

2013-06-19

Accurate QTL mapping is a prerequisite in the search for causative mutations. Bayesian genomic selection models that analyse many markers simultaneously should provide more accurate QTL detection results than single-marker models. Our objectives were to (a) evaluate by simulation the influence of heritability, number of QTL and number of records on the accuracy of QTL mapping with Bayes Cπ and Bayes C; (b) estimate the QTL status (homozygous vs. heterozygous) of the individuals analysed. This study focussed on the ten largest detected QTL, assuming they are candidates for further characterization. Our simulations were based on a true dairy cattle population genotyped for 38,277 phased markers. Some of these markers were considered biallelic QTL and used to generate corresponding phenotypes. Different numbers of records (4387 and 1500), heritability values (0.1, 0.4 and 0.7) and numbers of QTL (10, 100 and 1000) were studied. QTL detection was based on the posterior inclusion probability for individual markers, or on the sum of the posterior inclusion probabilities for consecutive markers, estimated using Bayes C or Bayes Cπ. The QTL status of the individuals was derived from the contrast between the sums of the SNP allelic effects of their chromosomal segments. The proportion of markers with null effect (π) frequently did not reach convergence, leading to poor results for Bayes Cπ in QTL detection. Fixing π led to better results. Detection of the largest QTL was most accurate for medium to high heritability, for low to moderate numbers of QTL, and with a large number of records. The QTL status was accurately inferred when the distribution of the contrast between chromosomal segment effects was bimodal. QTL detection is feasible with Bayes C. For QTL detection, it is recommended to use a large dataset and to focus on highly heritable traits and on the largest QTL. QTL statuses were inferred based on the distribution of the contrast between chromosomal segment effects.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

You, D; Aryal, M; Samuels, S

Purpose: A previous study showed that large sub-volumes of tumor with low blood volume (BV) (poorly perfused) in head-and-neck (HN) cancers are significantly associated with local-regional failure (LRF) after chemoradiation therapy, and could be targeted with intensified radiation doses. This study aimed to develop an automated and scalable model to extract voxel-wise contrast-enhanced temporal features of dynamic contrastenhanced (DCE) MRI in HN cancers for predicting LRF. Methods: Our model development consists of training and testing stages. The training stage includes preprocessing of individual-voxel DCE curves from tumors for intensity normalization and temporal alignment, temporal feature extraction from the curves, featuremore » selection, and training classifiers. For feature extraction, multiresolution Haar discrete wavelet transformation is applied to each DCE curve to capture temporal contrast-enhanced features. The wavelet coefficients as feature vectors are selected. Support vector machine classifiers are trained to classify tumor voxels having either low or high BV, for which a BV threshold of 7.6% is previously established and used as ground truth. The model is tested by a new dataset. The voxel-wise DCE curves for training and testing were from 14 and 8 patients, respectively. A posterior probability map of the low BV class was created to examine the tumor sub-volume classification. Voxel-wise classification accuracy was computed to evaluate performance of the model. Results: Average classification accuracies were 87.2% for training (10-fold crossvalidation) and 82.5% for testing. The lowest and highest accuracies (patient-wise) were 68.7% and 96.4%, respectively. Posterior probability maps of the low BV class showed the sub-volumes extracted by our model similar to ones defined by the BV maps with most misclassifications occurred near the sub-volume boundaries. Conclusion: This model could be valuable to support adaptive clinical trials with further validation. The framework could be extendable and scalable to extract temporal contrastenhanced features of DCE-MRI in other tumors. We would like to acknowledge NIH for funding support: UO1 CA183848.« less

Kullback-Leibler information function and the sequential selection of experiments to discriminate among several linear models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sidik, S. M.

1972-01-01

The error variance of the process prior multivariate normal distributions of the parameters of the models are assumed to be specified, prior probabilities of the models being correct. A rule for termination of sampling is proposed. Upon termination, the model with the largest posterior probability is chosen as correct. If sampling is not terminated, posterior probabilities of the models and posterior distributions of the parameters are computed. An experiment was chosen to maximize the expected Kullback-Leibler information function. Monte Carlo simulation experiments were performed to investigate large and small sample behavior of the sequential adaptive procedure.

Exoplanet Biosignatures: A Framework for Their Assessment.

PubMed

Catling, David C; Krissansen-Totton, Joshua; Kiang, Nancy Y; Crisp, David; Robinson, Tyler D; DasSarma, Shiladitya; Rushby, Andrew J; Del Genio, Anthony; Bains, William; Domagal-Goldman, Shawn

2018-04-20

Finding life on exoplanets from telescopic observations is an ultimate goal of exoplanet science. Life produces gases and other substances, such as pigments, which can have distinct spectral or photometric signatures. Whether or not life is found with future data must be expressed with probabilities, requiring a framework of biosignature assessment. We present a framework in which we advocate using biogeochemical "Exo-Earth System" models to simulate potential biosignatures in spectra or photometry. Given actual observations, simulations are used to find the Bayesian likelihoods of those data occurring for scenarios with and without life. The latter includes "false positives" wherein abiotic sources mimic biosignatures. Prior knowledge of factors influencing planetary inhabitation, including previous observations, is combined with the likelihoods to give the Bayesian posterior probability of life existing on a given exoplanet. Four components of observation and analysis are necessary. (1) Characterization of stellar (e.g., age and spectrum) and exoplanetary system properties, including "external" exoplanet parameters (e.g., mass and radius), to determine an exoplanet's suitability for life. (2) Characterization of "internal" exoplanet parameters (e.g., climate) to evaluate habitability. (3) Assessment of potential biosignatures within the environmental context (components 1-2), including corroborating evidence. (4) Exclusion of false positives. We propose that resulting posterior Bayesian probabilities of life's existence map to five confidence levels, ranging from "very likely" (90-100%) to "very unlikely" (<10%) inhabited. Key Words: Bayesian statistics-Biosignatures-Drake equation-Exoplanets-Habitability-Planetary science. Astrobiology 18, xxx-xxx.

Learning about Posterior Probability: Do Diagrams and Elaborative Interrogation Help?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clinton, Virginia; Alibali, Martha Wagner; Nathan, Mitchel J.

2016-01-01

To learn from a text, students must make meaningful connections among related ideas in that text. This study examined the effectiveness of two methods of improving connections--elaborative interrogation and diagrams--in written lessons about posterior probability. Undergraduate students (N = 198) read a lesson in one of three questioning…

A pitfall of piecewise-polytropic equation of state inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raaijmakers, Geert; Riley, Thomas E.; Watts, Anna L.

2018-05-01

The only messenger radiation in the Universe which one can use to statistically probe the Equation of State (EOS) of cold dense matter is that originating from the near-field vicinities of compact stars. Constraining gravitational masses and equatorial radii of rotating compact stars is a major goal for current and future telescope missions, with a primary purpose of constraining the EOS. From a Bayesian perspective it is necessary to carefully discuss prior definition; in this context a complicating issue is that in practice there exist pathologies in the general relativistic mapping between spaces of local (interior source matter) and global (exterior spacetime) parameters. In a companion paper, these issues were raised on a theoretical basis. In this study we reproduce a probability transformation procedure from the literature in order to map a joint posterior distribution of Schwarzschild gravitational masses and radii into a joint posterior distribution of EOS parameters. We demonstrate computationally that EOS parameter inferences are sensitive to the choice to define a prior on a joint space of these masses and radii, instead of on a joint space interior source matter parameters. We focus on the piecewise-polytropic EOS model, which is currently standard in the field of astrophysical dense matter study. We discuss the implications of this issue for the field.

An efficient algorithm to compute marginal posterior genotype probabilities for every member of a pedigree with loops

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Marginal posterior genotype probabilities need to be computed for genetic analyses such as geneticcounseling in humans and selective breeding in animal and plant species. Methods In this paper, we describe a peeling based, deterministic, exact algorithm to compute efficiently genotype probabilities for every member of a pedigree with loops without recourse to junction-tree methods from graph theory. The efficiency in computing the likelihood by peeling comes from storing intermediate results in multidimensional tables called cutsets. Computing marginal genotype probabilities for individual i requires recomputing the likelihood for each of the possible genotypes of individual i. This can be done efficiently by storing intermediate results in two types of cutsets called anterior and posterior cutsets and reusing these intermediate results to compute the likelihood. Examples A small example is used to illustrate the theoretical concepts discussed in this paper, and marginal genotype probabilities are computed at a monogenic disease locus for every member in a real cattle pedigree. PMID:19958551

Cumulative probability of neodymium: YAG laser posterior capsulotomy after phacoemulsification.

PubMed

Ando, Hiroshi; Ando, Nobuyo; Oshika, Tetsuro

2003-11-01

To retrospectively analyze the cumulative probability of neodymium:YAG (Nd:YAG) laser posterior capsulotomy after phacoemulsification and to evaluate the risk factors. Ando Eye Clinic, Kanagawa, Japan. In 3997 eyes that had phacoemulsification with an intact continuous curvilinear capsulorhexis, the cumulative probability of posterior capsulotomy was computed by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and risk factors were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazards regression model. The variables tested were sex; age; type of cataract; preoperative best corrected visual acuity (BCVA); presence of diabetes mellitus, diabetic retinopathy, or retinitis pigmentosa; type of intraocular lens (IOL); and the year the operation was performed. The IOLs were categorized as 3-piece poly(methyl methacrylate) (PMMA), 1-piece PMMA, 3-piece silicone, and acrylic foldable. The cumulative probability of capsulotomy after cataract surgery was 1.95%, 18.50%, and 32.70% at 1, 3, and 5 years, respectively. Positive risk factors included a better preoperative BCVA (P =.0005; risk ratio [RR], 1.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-2.5) and the presence of retinitis pigmentosa (P<.0001; RR, 6.6; 95% CI, 3.7-11.6). Women had a significantly greater probability of Nd:YAG laser posterior capsulotomy (P =.016; RR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.8). The type of IOL was significantly related to the probability of Nd:YAG laser capsulotomy, with the foldable acrylic IOL having a significantly lower probability of capsulotomy. The 1-piece PMMA IOL had a significantly higher risk than 3-piece PMMA and 3-piece silicone IOLs. The probability of Nd:YAG laser capsulotomy was higher in women, in eyes with a better preoperative BCVA, and in patients with retinitis pigmentosa. The foldable acrylic IOL had a significantly lower probability of capsulotomy.

optBINS: Optimal Binning for histograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knuth, Kevin H.

2018-03-01

optBINS (optimal binning) determines the optimal number of bins in a uniform bin-width histogram by deriving the posterior probability for the number of bins in a piecewise-constant density model after assigning a multinomial likelihood and a non-informative prior. The maximum of the posterior probability occurs at a point where the prior probability and the the joint likelihood are balanced. The interplay between these opposing factors effectively implements Occam's razor by selecting the most simple model that best describes the data.

Reweighting Data in the Spirit of Tukey: Using Bayesian Posterior Probabilities as Rasch Residuals for Studying Misfit

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dardick, William R.; Mislevy, Robert J.

2016-01-01

A new variant of the iterative "data = fit + residual" data-analytical approach described by Mosteller and Tukey is proposed and implemented in the context of item response theory psychometric models. Posterior probabilities from a Bayesian mixture model of a Rasch item response theory model and an unscalable latent class are expressed…

Learn-as-you-go acceleration of cosmological parameter estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aslanyan, Grigor; Easther, Richard; Price, Layne C.

2015-09-01

Cosmological analyses can be accelerated by approximating slow calculations using a training set, which is either precomputed or generated dynamically. However, this approach is only safe if the approximations are well understood and controlled. This paper surveys issues associated with the use of machine-learning based emulation strategies for accelerating cosmological parameter estimation. We describe a learn-as-you-go algorithm that is implemented in the Cosmo++ code and (1) trains the emulator while simultaneously estimating posterior probabilities; (2) identifies unreliable estimates, computing the exact numerical likelihoods if necessary; and (3) progressively learns and updates the error model as the calculation progresses. We explicitly describe and model the emulation error and show how this can be propagated into the posterior probabilities. We apply these techniques to the Planck likelihood and the calculation of ΛCDM posterior probabilities. The computation is significantly accelerated without a pre-defined training set and uncertainties in the posterior probabilities are subdominant to statistical fluctuations. We have obtained a speedup factor of 6.5 for Metropolis-Hastings and 3.5 for nested sampling. Finally, we discuss the general requirements for a credible error model and show how to update them on-the-fly.

Learn-as-you-go acceleration of cosmological parameter estimates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Aslanyan, Grigor; Easther, Richard; Price, Layne C., E-mail: g.aslanyan@auckland.ac.nz, E-mail: r.easther@auckland.ac.nz, E-mail: lpri691@aucklanduni.ac.nz

2015-09-01

Cosmological analyses can be accelerated by approximating slow calculations using a training set, which is either precomputed or generated dynamically. However, this approach is only safe if the approximations are well understood and controlled. This paper surveys issues associated with the use of machine-learning based emulation strategies for accelerating cosmological parameter estimation. We describe a learn-as-you-go algorithm that is implemented in the Cosmo++ code and (1) trains the emulator while simultaneously estimating posterior probabilities; (2) identifies unreliable estimates, computing the exact numerical likelihoods if necessary; and (3) progressively learns and updates the error model as the calculation progresses. We explicitlymore » describe and model the emulation error and show how this can be propagated into the posterior probabilities. We apply these techniques to the Planck likelihood and the calculation of ΛCDM posterior probabilities. The computation is significantly accelerated without a pre-defined training set and uncertainties in the posterior probabilities are subdominant to statistical fluctuations. We have obtained a speedup factor of 6.5 for Metropolis-Hastings and 3.5 for nested sampling. Finally, we discuss the general requirements for a credible error model and show how to update them on-the-fly.« less

Multiple model cardinalized probability hypothesis density filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgescu, Ramona; Willett, Peter

2011-09-01

The Probability Hypothesis Density (PHD) filter propagates the first-moment approximation to the multi-target Bayesian posterior distribution while the Cardinalized PHD (CPHD) filter propagates both the posterior likelihood of (an unlabeled) target state and the posterior probability mass function of the number of targets. Extensions of the PHD filter to the multiple model (MM) framework have been published and were implemented either with a Sequential Monte Carlo or a Gaussian Mixture approach. In this work, we introduce the multiple model version of the more elaborate CPHD filter. We present the derivation of the prediction and update steps of the MMCPHD particularized for the case of two target motion models and proceed to show that in the case of a single model, the new MMCPHD equations reduce to the original CPHD equations.

Efficient Bayesian parameter estimation with implicit sampling and surrogate modeling for a vadose zone hydrological problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Y.; Pau, G. S. H.; Finsterle, S.

2015-12-01

Parameter inversion involves inferring the model parameter values based on sparse observations of some observables. To infer the posterior probability distributions of the parameters, Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are typically used. However, the large number of forward simulations needed and limited computational resources limit the complexity of the hydrological model we can use in these methods. In view of this, we studied the implicit sampling (IS) method, an efficient importance sampling technique that generates samples in the high-probability region of the posterior distribution and thus reduces the number of forward simulations that we need to run. For a pilot-point inversion of a heterogeneous permeability field based on a synthetic ponded infiltration experiment simu­lated with TOUGH2 (a subsurface modeling code), we showed that IS with linear map provides an accurate Bayesian description of the parameterized permeability field at the pilot points with just approximately 500 forward simulations. We further studied the use of surrogate models to improve the computational efficiency of parameter inversion. We implemented two reduced-order models (ROMs) for the TOUGH2 forward model. One is based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), of which the coefficients are obtained using the sparse Bayesian learning technique to mitigate the "curse of dimensionality" of the PCE terms. The other model is Gaussian process regression (GPR) for which different covariance, likelihood and inference models are considered. Preliminary results indicate that ROMs constructed based on the prior parameter space perform poorly. It is thus impractical to replace this hydrological model by a ROM directly in a MCMC method. However, the IS method can work with a ROM constructed for parameters in the close vicinity of the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) estimate. We will discuss the accuracy and computational efficiency of using ROMs in the implicit sampling procedure for the hydrological problem considered. This work was supported, in part, by the U.S. Dept. of Energy under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231

Asking better questions: How presentation formats influence information search.

PubMed

Wu, Charley M; Meder, Björn; Filimon, Flavia; Nelson, Jonathan D

2017-08-01

While the influence of presentation formats have been widely studied in Bayesian reasoning tasks, we present the first systematic investigation of how presentation formats influence information search decisions. Four experiments were conducted across different probabilistic environments, where subjects (N = 2,858) chose between 2 possible search queries, each with binary probabilistic outcomes, with the goal of maximizing classification accuracy. We studied 14 different numerical and visual formats for presenting information about the search environment, constructed across 6 design features that have been prominently related to improvements in Bayesian reasoning accuracy (natural frequencies, posteriors, complement, spatial extent, countability, and part-to-whole information). The posterior variants of the icon array and bar graph formats led to the highest proportion of correct responses, and were substantially better than the standard probability format. Results suggest that presenting information in terms of posterior probabilities and visualizing natural frequencies using spatial extent (a perceptual feature) were especially helpful in guiding search decisions, although environments with a mixture of probabilistic and certain outcomes were challenging across all formats. Subjects who made more accurate probability judgments did not perform better on the search task, suggesting that simple decision heuristics may be used to make search decisions without explicitly applying Bayesian inference to compute probabilities. We propose a new take-the-difference (TTD) heuristic that identifies the accuracy-maximizing query without explicit computation of posterior probabilities. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Hepatitis disease detection using Bayesian theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maseleno, Andino; Hidayati, Rohmah Zahroh

2017-02-01

This paper presents hepatitis disease diagnosis using a Bayesian theory for better understanding of the theory. In this research, we used a Bayesian theory for detecting hepatitis disease and displaying the result of diagnosis process. Bayesian algorithm theory is rediscovered and perfected by Laplace, the basic idea is using of the known prior probability and conditional probability density parameter, based on Bayes theorem to calculate the corresponding posterior probability, and then obtained the posterior probability to infer and make decisions. Bayesian methods combine existing knowledge, prior probabilities, with additional knowledge derived from new data, the likelihood function. The initial symptoms of hepatitis which include malaise, fever and headache. The probability of hepatitis given the presence of malaise, fever, and headache. The result revealed that a Bayesian theory has successfully identified the existence of hepatitis disease.

Judging the Probability of Hypotheses Versus the Impact of Evidence: Which Form of Inductive Inference Is More Accurate and Time-Consistent?

PubMed

Tentori, Katya; Chater, Nick; Crupi, Vincenzo

2016-04-01

Inductive reasoning requires exploiting links between evidence and hypotheses. This can be done focusing either on the posterior probability of the hypothesis when updated on the new evidence or on the impact of the new evidence on the credibility of the hypothesis. But are these two cognitive representations equally reliable? This study investigates this question by comparing probability and impact judgments on the same experimental materials. The results indicate that impact judgments are more consistent in time and more accurate than probability judgments. Impact judgments also predict the direction of errors in probability judgments. These findings suggest that human inductive reasoning relies more on estimating evidential impact than on posterior probability. Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Lod scores for gene mapping in the presence of marker map uncertainty.

PubMed

Stringham, H M; Boehnke, M

2001-07-01

Multipoint lod scores are typically calculated for a grid of locus positions, moving the putative disease locus across a fixed map of genetic markers. Changing the order of a set of markers and/or the distances between the markers can make a substantial difference in the resulting lod score curve and the location and height of its maximum. The typical approach of using the best maximum likelihood marker map is not easily justified if other marker orders are nearly as likely and give substantially different lod score curves. To deal with this problem, we propose three weighted multipoint lod score statistics that make use of information from all plausible marker orders. In each of these statistics, the information conditional on a particular marker order is included in a weighted sum, with weight equal to the posterior probability of that order. We evaluate the type 1 error rate and power of these three statistics on the basis of results from simulated data, and compare these results to those obtained using the best maximum likelihood map and the map with the true marker order. We find that the lod score based on a weighted sum of maximum likelihoods improves on using only the best maximum likelihood map, having a type 1 error rate and power closest to that of using the true marker order in the simulation scenarios we considered. Copyright 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A note on the efficiencies of sampling strategies in two-stage Bayesian regional fine mapping of a quantitative trait.

PubMed

Chen, Zhijian; Craiu, Radu V; Bull, Shelley B

2014-11-01

In focused studies designed to follow up associations detected in a genome-wide association study (GWAS), investigators can proceed to fine-map a genomic region by targeted sequencing or dense genotyping of all variants in the region, aiming to identify a functional sequence variant. For the analysis of a quantitative trait, we consider a Bayesian approach to fine-mapping study design that incorporates stratification according to a promising GWAS tag SNP in the same region. Improved cost-efficiency can be achieved when the fine-mapping phase incorporates a two-stage design, with identification of a smaller set of more promising variants in a subsample taken in stage 1, followed by their evaluation in an independent stage 2 subsample. To avoid the potential negative impact of genetic model misspecification on inference we incorporate genetic model selection based on posterior probabilities for each competing model. Our simulation study shows that, compared to simple random sampling that ignores genetic information from GWAS, tag-SNP-based stratified sample allocation methods reduce the number of variants continuing to stage 2 and are more likely to promote the functional sequence variant into confirmation studies. © 2014 WILEY PERIODICALS, INC.

An object correlation and maneuver detection approach for space surveillance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, Jian; Hu, Wei-Dong; Xin, Qin; Du, Xiao-Yong

2012-10-01

Object correlation and maneuver detection are persistent problems in space surveillance and maintenance of a space object catalog. We integrate these two problems into one interrelated problem, and consider them simultaneously under a scenario where space objects only perform a single in-track orbital maneuver during the time intervals between observations. We mathematically formulate this integrated scenario as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation. In this work, we propose a novel approach to solve the MAP estimation. More precisely, the corresponding posterior probability of an orbital maneuver and a joint association event can be approximated by the Joint Probabilistic Data Association (JPDA) algorithm. Subsequently, the maneuvering parameters are estimated by optimally solving the constrained non-linear least squares iterative process based on the second-order cone programming (SOCP) algorithm. The desired solution is derived according to the MAP criterions. The performance and advantages of the proposed approach have been shown by both theoretical analysis and simulation results. We hope that our work will stimulate future work on space surveillance and maintenance of a space object catalog.

Estimating the Probability of Traditional Copying, Conditional on Answer-Copying Statistics.

PubMed

Allen, Jeff; Ghattas, Andrew

2016-06-01

Statistics for detecting copying on multiple-choice tests produce p values measuring the probability of a value at least as large as that observed, under the null hypothesis of no copying. The posterior probability of copying is arguably more relevant than the p value, but cannot be derived from Bayes' theorem unless the population probability of copying and probability distribution of the answer-copying statistic under copying are known. In this article, the authors develop an estimator for the posterior probability of copying that is based on estimable quantities and can be used with any answer-copying statistic. The performance of the estimator is evaluated via simulation, and the authors demonstrate how to apply the formula using actual data. Potential uses, generalizability to other types of cheating, and limitations of the approach are discussed.

Modeling Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced MRI Data with a Constrained Local AIF.

PubMed

Duan, Chong; Kallehauge, Jesper F; Pérez-Torres, Carlos J; Bretthorst, G Larry; Beeman, Scott C; Tanderup, Kari; Ackerman, Joseph J H; Garbow, Joel R

2018-02-01

This study aims to develop a constrained local arterial input function (cL-AIF) to improve quantitative analysis of dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE)-magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data by accounting for the contrast-agent bolus amplitude error in the voxel-specific AIF. Bayesian probability theory-based parameter estimation and model selection were used to compare tracer kinetic modeling employing either the measured remote-AIF (R-AIF, i.e., the traditional approach) or an inferred cL-AIF against both in silico DCE-MRI data and clinical, cervical cancer DCE-MRI data. When the data model included the cL-AIF, tracer kinetic parameters were correctly estimated from in silico data under contrast-to-noise conditions typical of clinical DCE-MRI experiments. Considering the clinical cervical cancer data, Bayesian model selection was performed for all tumor voxels of the 16 patients (35,602 voxels in total). Among those voxels, a tracer kinetic model that employed the voxel-specific cL-AIF was preferred (i.e., had a higher posterior probability) in 80 % of the voxels compared to the direct use of a single R-AIF. Maps of spatial variation in voxel-specific AIF bolus amplitude and arrival time for heterogeneous tissues, such as cervical cancer, are accessible with the cL-AIF approach. The cL-AIF method, which estimates unique local-AIF amplitude and arrival time for each voxel within the tissue of interest, provides better modeling of DCE-MRI data than the use of a single, measured R-AIF. The Bayesian-based data analysis described herein affords estimates of uncertainties for each model parameter, via posterior probability density functions, and voxel-wise comparison across methods/models, via model selection in data modeling.

Municipal mortality due to thyroid cancer in Spain

PubMed Central

Lope, Virginia; Pollán, Marina; Pérez-Gómez, Beatriz; Aragonés, Nuria; Ramis, Rebeca; Gómez-Barroso, Diana; López-Abente, Gonzalo

2006-01-01

Background Thyroid cancer is a tumor with a low but growing incidence in Spain. This study sought to depict its spatial municipal mortality pattern, using the classic model proposed by Besag, York and Mollié. Methods It was possible to compile and ascertain the posterior distribution of relative risk on the basis of a single Bayesian spatial model covering all of Spain's 8077 municipal areas. Maps were plotted depicting standardized mortality ratios, smoothed relative risk (RR) estimates, and the posterior probability that RR > 1. Results From 1989 to 1998 a total of 2,538 thyroid cancer deaths were registered in 1,041 municipalities. The highest relative risks were mostly situated in the Canary Islands, the province of Lugo, the east of La Coruña (Corunna) and western areas of Asturias and Orense. Conclusion The observed mortality pattern coincides with areas in Spain where goiter has been declared endemic. The higher frequency in these same areas of undifferentiated, more aggressive carcinomas could be reflected in the mortality figures. Other unknown genetic or environmental factors could also play a role in the etiology of this tumor. PMID:17173668

Incorporating prior knowledge induced from stochastic differential equations in the classification of stochastic observations.

PubMed

Zollanvari, Amin; Dougherty, Edward R

2016-12-01

In classification, prior knowledge is incorporated in a Bayesian framework by assuming that the feature-label distribution belongs to an uncertainty class of feature-label distributions governed by a prior distribution. A posterior distribution is then derived from the prior and the sample data. An optimal Bayesian classifier (OBC) minimizes the expected misclassification error relative to the posterior distribution. From an application perspective, prior construction is critical. The prior distribution is formed by mapping a set of mathematical relations among the features and labels, the prior knowledge, into a distribution governing the probability mass across the uncertainty class. In this paper, we consider prior knowledge in the form of stochastic differential equations (SDEs). We consider a vector SDE in integral form involving a drift vector and dispersion matrix. Having constructed the prior, we develop the optimal Bayesian classifier between two models and examine, via synthetic experiments, the effects of uncertainty in the drift vector and dispersion matrix. We apply the theory to a set of SDEs for the purpose of differentiating the evolutionary history between two species.

Naive Probability: A Mental Model Theory of Extensional Reasoning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson-Laird, P. N.; Legrenzi, Paolo; Girotto, Vittorio; Legrenzi, Maria Sonino; Caverni, Jean-Paul

1999-01-01

Outlines a theory of naive probability in which individuals who are unfamiliar with the probability calculus can infer the probabilities of events in an "extensional" way. The theory accommodates reasoning based on numerical premises, and explains how naive reasoners can infer posterior probabilities without relying on Bayes's theorem.…

Graded levels of FGF protein span the midbrain and can instruct graded induction and repression of neural mapping labels

PubMed Central

Chen, Yao; Mohammadi, Moosa; Flanagan, John G.

2009-01-01

Summary Graded guidance labels are widely used in neural map formation, but it is not well understood which potential strategy leads to their graded expression. In midbrain tectal map development, FGFs can induce an entire midbrain, but their protein distribution is unclear, nor is it known whether they may act instructively to produce graded gene expression. Using a receptor-alkaline phosphatase fusion probe, we find a long-range posterior>anterior FGF protein gradient spanning the midbrain. Heparan sulfate proteoglycan (HSPG) is required for this gradient. To test whether graded FGF concentrations can instruct graded gene expression, a quantitative tectal explant assay was developed. Engrailed-2 and ephrin-As, normally in posterior>anterior tectal gradients, showed graded upregulation. Moreover, EphAs, normally in anterior>posterior countergradients, showed coordinately graded downregulation. These results provide a mechanism to establish graded mapping labels, and more generally provide a developmental strategy to coordinately induce a structure and pattern its cell properties in gradients. PMID:19555646

Modeling stream fish distributions using interval-censored detection times.

PubMed

Ferreira, Mário; Filipe, Ana Filipa; Bardos, David C; Magalhães, Maria Filomena; Beja, Pedro

2016-08-01

Controlling for imperfect detection is important for developing species distribution models (SDMs). Occupancy-detection models based on the time needed to detect a species can be used to address this problem, but this is hindered when times to detection are not known precisely. Here, we extend the time-to-detection model to deal with detections recorded in time intervals and illustrate the method using a case study on stream fish distribution modeling. We collected electrofishing samples of six fish species across a Mediterranean watershed in Northeast Portugal. Based on a Bayesian hierarchical framework, we modeled the probability of water presence in stream channels, and the probability of species occupancy conditional on water presence, in relation to environmental and spatial variables. We also modeled time-to-first detection conditional on occupancy in relation to local factors, using modified interval-censored exponential survival models. Posterior distributions of occupancy probabilities derived from the models were used to produce species distribution maps. Simulations indicated that the modified time-to-detection model provided unbiased parameter estimates despite interval-censoring. There was a tendency for spatial variation in detection rates to be primarily influenced by depth and, to a lesser extent, stream width. Species occupancies were consistently affected by stream order, elevation, and annual precipitation. Bayesian P-values and AUCs indicated that all models had adequate fit and high discrimination ability, respectively. Mapping of predicted occupancy probabilities showed widespread distribution by most species, but uncertainty was generally higher in tributaries and upper reaches. The interval-censored time-to-detection model provides a practical solution to model occupancy-detection when detections are recorded in time intervals. This modeling framework is useful for developing SDMs while controlling for variation in detection rates, as it uses simple data that can be readily collected by field ecologists.

Generalized Wishart Mixtures for Unsupervised Classification of PolSAR Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Lan; Chen, Erxue; Li, Zengyuan

2013-01-01

This paper presents an unsupervised clustering algorithm based upon the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm for finite mixture modelling, using the complex wishart probability density function (PDF) for the probabilities. The mixture model enables to consider heterogeneous thematic classes which could not be better fitted by the unimodal wishart distribution. In order to make it fast and robust to calculate, we use the recently proposed generalized gamma distribution (GΓD) for the single polarization intensity data to make the initial partition. Then we use the wishart probability density function for the corresponding sample covariance matrix to calculate the posterior class probabilities for each pixel. The posterior class probabilities are used for the prior probability estimates of each class and weights for all class parameter updates. The proposed method is evaluated and compared with the wishart H-Alpha-A classification. Preliminary results show that the proposed method has better performance.

Calibration of micromechanical parameters for DEM simulations by using the particle filter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Hongyang; Shuku, Takayuki; Thoeni, Klaus; Yamamoto, Haruyuki

2017-06-01

The calibration of DEM models is typically accomplished by trail and error. However, the procedure lacks of objectivity and has several uncertainties. To deal with these issues, the particle filter is employed as a novel approach to calibrate DEM models of granular soils. The posterior probability distribution of the microparameters that give numerical results in good agreement with the experimental response of a Toyoura sand specimen is approximated by independent model trajectories, referred as `particles', based on Monte Carlo sampling. The soil specimen is modeled by polydisperse packings with different numbers of spherical grains. Prepared in `stress-free' states, the packings are subjected to triaxial quasistatic loading. Given the experimental data, the posterior probability distribution is incrementally updated, until convergence is reached. The resulting `particles' with higher weights are identified as the calibration results. The evolutions of the weighted averages and posterior probability distribution of the micro-parameters are plotted to show the advantage of using a particle filter, i.e., multiple solutions are identified for each parameter with known probabilities of reproducing the experimental response.

Paleogeodesy of the Southern Santa Cruz Mountains Frontal Thrusts, Silicon Valley, CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aron, F.; Johnstone, S. A.; Mavrommatis, A. P.; Sare, R.; Hilley, G. E.

2015-12-01

We present a method to infer long-term fault slip rate distributions using topography by coupling a three-dimensional elastic boundary element model with a geomorphic incision rule. In particular, we used a 10-m-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) to calculate channel steepness (ksn) throughout the actively deforming southern Santa Cruz Mountains in Central California. We then used these values with a power-law incision rule and the Poly3D code to estimate slip rates over seismogenic, kilometer-scale thrust faults accommodating differential uplift of the relief throughout geologic time. Implicit in such an analysis is the assumption that the topographic surface remains unchanged over time as rock is uplifted by slip on the underlying structures. The fault geometries within the area are defined based on surface mapping, as well as active and passive geophysical imaging. Fault elements are assumed to be traction-free in shear (i.e., frictionless), while opening along them is prohibited. The free parameters in the inversion include the components of the remote strain-rate tensor (ɛij) and the bedrock resistance to channel incision (K), which is allowed to vary according to the mapped distribution of geologic units exposed at the surface. The nonlinear components of the geomorphic model required the use of a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, which simulated the posterior density of the components of the remote strain-rate tensor and values of K for the different mapped geologic units. Interestingly, posterior probability distributions of ɛij and K fall well within the broad range of reported values, suggesting that the joint use of elastic boundary element and geomorphic models may have utility in estimating long-term fault slip-rate distributions. Given an adequate DEM, geologic mapping, and fault models, the proposed paleogeodetic method could be applied to other crustal faults with geological and morphological expressions of long-term uplift.

Analysis of immune-related loci identifies 48 new susceptibility variants for multiple sclerosis

PubMed Central

Beecham, Ashley H; Patsopoulos, Nikolaos A; Xifara, Dionysia K; Davis, Mary F; Kemppinen, Anu; Cotsapas, Chris; Shahi, Tejas S; Spencer, Chris; Booth, David; Goris, An; Oturai, Annette; Saarela, Janna; Fontaine, Bertrand; Hemmer, Bernhard; Martin, Claes; Zipp, Frauke; D’alfonso, Sandra; Martinelli-Boneschi, Filippo; Taylor, Bruce; Harbo, Hanne F; Kockum, Ingrid; Hillert, Jan; Olsson, Tomas; Ban, Maria; Oksenberg, Jorge R; Hintzen, Rogier; Barcellos, Lisa F; Agliardi, Cristina; Alfredsson, Lars; Alizadeh, Mehdi; Anderson, Carl; Andrews, Robert; Søndergaard, Helle Bach; Baker, Amie; Band, Gavin; Baranzini, Sergio E; Barizzone, Nadia; Barrett, Jeffrey; Bellenguez, Céline; Bergamaschi, Laura; Bernardinelli, Luisa; Berthele, Achim; Biberacher, Viola; Binder, Thomas M C; Blackburn, Hannah; Bomfim, Izaura L; Brambilla, Paola; Broadley, Simon; Brochet, Bruno; Brundin, Lou; Buck, Dorothea; Butzkueven, Helmut; Caillier, Stacy J; Camu, William; Carpentier, Wassila; Cavalla, Paola; Celius, Elisabeth G; Coman, Irène; Comi, Giancarlo; Corrado, Lucia; Cosemans, Leentje; Cournu-Rebeix, Isabelle; Cree, Bruce A C; Cusi, Daniele; Damotte, Vincent; Defer, Gilles; Delgado, Silvia R; Deloukas, Panos; di Sapio, Alessia; Dilthey, Alexander T; Donnelly, Peter; Dubois, Bénédicte; Duddy, Martin; Edkins, Sarah; Elovaara, Irina; Esposito, Federica; Evangelou, Nikos; Fiddes, Barnaby; Field, Judith; Franke, Andre; Freeman, Colin; Frohlich, Irene Y; Galimberti, Daniela; Gieger, Christian; Gourraud, Pierre-Antoine; Graetz, Christiane; Graham, Andrew; Grummel, Verena; Guaschino, Clara; Hadjixenofontos, Athena; Hakonarson, Hakon; Halfpenny, Christopher; Hall, Gillian; Hall, Per; Hamsten, Anders; Harley, James; Harrower, Timothy; Hawkins, Clive; Hellenthal, Garrett; Hillier, Charles; Hobart, Jeremy; Hoshi, Muni; Hunt, Sarah E; Jagodic, Maja; Jelčić, Ilijas; Jochim, Angela; Kendall, Brian; Kermode, Allan; Kilpatrick, Trevor; Koivisto, Keijo; Konidari, Ioanna; Korn, Thomas; Kronsbein, Helena; Langford, Cordelia; Larsson, Malin; Lathrop, Mark; Lebrun-Frenay, Christine; Lechner-Scott, Jeannette; Lee, Michelle H; Leone, Maurizio A; Leppä, Virpi; Liberatore, Giuseppe; Lie, Benedicte A; Lill, Christina M; Lindén, Magdalena; Link, Jenny; Luessi, Felix; Lycke, Jan; Macciardi, Fabio; Männistö, Satu; Manrique, Clara P; Martin, Roland; Martinelli, Vittorio; Mason, Deborah; Mazibrada, Gordon; McCabe, Cristin; Mero, Inger-Lise; Mescheriakova, Julia; Moutsianas, Loukas; Myhr, Kjell-Morten; Nagels, Guy; Nicholas, Richard; Nilsson, Petra; Piehl, Fredrik; Pirinen, Matti; Price, Siân E; Quach, Hong; Reunanen, Mauri; Robberecht, Wim; Robertson, Neil P; Rodegher, Mariaemma; Rog, David; Salvetti, Marco; Schnetz-Boutaud, Nathalie C; Sellebjerg, Finn; Selter, Rebecca C; Schaefer, Catherine; Shaunak, Sandip; Shen, Ling; Shields, Simon; Siffrin, Volker; Slee, Mark; Sorensen, Per Soelberg; Sorosina, Melissa; Sospedra, Mireia; Spurkland, Anne; Strange, Amy; Sundqvist, Emilie; Thijs, Vincent; Thorpe, John; Ticca, Anna; Tienari, Pentti; van Duijn, Cornelia; Visser, Elizabeth M; Vucic, Steve; Westerlind, Helga; Wiley, James S; Wilkins, Alastair; Wilson, James F; Winkelmann, Juliane; Zajicek, John; Zindler, Eva; Haines, Jonathan L; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A; Ivinson, Adrian J; Stewart, Graeme; Hafler, David; Hauser, Stephen L; Compston, Alastair; McVean, Gil; De Jager, Philip; Sawcer, Stephen; McCauley, Jacob L

2013-01-01

Using the ImmunoChip custom genotyping array, we analysed 14,498 multiple sclerosis subjects and 24,091 healthy controls for 161,311 autosomal variants and identified 135 potentially associated regions (p-value < 1.0 × 10-4). In a replication phase, we combined these data with previous genome-wide association study (GWAS) data from an independent 14,802 multiple sclerosis subjects and 26,703 healthy controls. In these 80,094 individuals of European ancestry we identified 48 new susceptibility variants (p-value < 5.0 × 10-8); three found after conditioning on previously identified variants. Thus, there are now 110 established multiple sclerosis risk variants in 103 discrete loci outside of the Major Histocompatibility Complex. With high resolution Bayesian fine-mapping, we identified five regions where one variant accounted for more than 50% of the posterior probability of association. This study enhances the catalogue of multiple sclerosis risk variants and illustrates the value of fine-mapping in the resolution of GWAS signals. PMID:24076602

Bayesian model checking: A comparison of tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lucy, L. B.

2018-06-01

Two procedures for checking Bayesian models are compared using a simple test problem based on the local Hubble expansion. Over four orders of magnitude, p-values derived from a global goodness-of-fit criterion for posterior probability density functions agree closely with posterior predictive p-values. The former can therefore serve as an effective proxy for the difficult-to-calculate posterior predictive p-values.

Effect of posterior crown margin placement on gingival health.

PubMed

Reitemeier, Bernd; Hänsel, Kristina; Walter, Michael H; Kastner, Christian; Toutenburg, Helge

2002-02-01

The clinical impact of posterior crown margin placement on gingival health has not been thoroughly quantified. This study evaluated the effect of posterior crown margin placement with multivariate analysis. Ten general dentists reviewed 240 patients with 480 metal-ceramic crowns in a prospective clinical trial. The alloy was randomly selected from 2 high gold, 1 low gold, and 1 palladium alloy. Variables were the alloy used, oral hygiene index score before treatment, location of crown margins at baseline, and plaque index and sulcus bleeding index scores recorded for restored and control teeth after 1 year. The effect of crown margin placement on sulcular bleeding and plaque accumulation was analyzed with regression models (P<.05). The probability of plaque at 1 year increased with increasing oral hygiene index score before treatment. The lingual surfaces demonstrated the highest probability of plaque. The risk of bleeding at intrasulcular posterior crown margins was approximately twice that at supragingival margins. Poor oral hygiene before treatment and plaque also were associated with sulcular bleeding. Facial sites exhibited a lower probability of sulcular bleeding than lingual surfaces. Type of alloy did not influence sulcular bleeding. In this study, placement of crown margins was one of several parameters that affected gingival health.

Pig Data and Bayesian Inference on Multinomial Probabilities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kern, John C.

2006-01-01

Bayesian inference on multinomial probabilities is conducted based on data collected from the game Pass the Pigs[R]. Prior information on these probabilities is readily available from the instruction manual, and is easily incorporated in a Dirichlet prior. Posterior analysis of the scoring probabilities quantifies the discrepancy between empirical…

Aggregation of Sentinel-2 time series classifications as a solution for multitemporal analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewiński, Stanislaw; Nowakowski, Artur; Malinowski, Radek; Rybicki, Marcin; Kukawska, Ewa; Krupiński, Michał

2017-10-01

The general aim of this work was to elaborate efficient and reliable aggregation method that could be used for creating a land cover map at a global scale from multitemporal satellite imagery. The study described in this paper presents methods for combining results of land cover/land use classifications performed on single-date Sentinel-2 images acquired at different time periods. For that purpose different aggregation methods were proposed and tested on study sites spread on different continents. The initial classifications were performed with Random Forest classifier on individual Sentinel-2 images from a time series. In the following step the resulting land cover maps were aggregated pixel by pixel using three different combinations of information on the number of occurrences of a certain land cover class within a time series and the posterior probability of particular classes resulting from the Random Forest classification. From the proposed methods two are shown superior and in most cases were able to reach or outperform the accuracy of the best individual classifications of single-date images. Moreover, the aggregations results are very stable when used on data with varying cloudiness. They also enable to reduce considerably the number of cloudy pixels in the resulting land cover map what is significant advantage for mapping areas with frequent cloud coverage.

National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants.

PubMed

Danaei, Goodarz; Finucane, Mariel M; Lin, John K; Singh, Gitanjali M; Paciorek, Christopher J; Cowan, Melanie J; Farzadfar, Farshad; Stevens, Gretchen A; Lim, Stephen S; Riley, Leanne M; Ezzati, Majid

2011-02-12

Data for trends in blood pressure are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. However, few worldwide analyses of trends in blood pressure have been done. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean systolic blood pressure (SBP). We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean SBP for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (786 country-years and 5·4 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean SBP by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. In 2008, age-standardised mean SBP worldwide was 128·1 mm Hg (95% uncertainty interval 126·7-129·4) in men and 124·4 mm Hg (123·0-125·9) in women. Globally, between 1980 and 2008, SBP decreased by 0·8 mm Hg per decade (-0·4 to 2·2, posterior probability of being a true decline=0·90) in men and 1·0 mm Hg per decade (-0·3 to 2·3, posterior probability=0·93) in women. Female SBP decreased by 3·5 mm Hg or more per decade in western Europe and Australasia (posterior probabilities ≥0·999). Male SBP fell most in high-income North America, by 2·8 mm Hg per decade (1·3-4·5, posterior probability >0·999), followed by Australasia and western Europe where it decreased by more than 2·0 mm Hg per decade (posterior probabilities >0·98). SBP rose in Oceania, east Africa, and south and southeast Asia for both sexes, and in west Africa for women, with the increases ranging 0·8-1·6 mm Hg per decade in men (posterior probabilities 0·72-0·91) and 1·0-2·7 mm Hg per decade for women (posterior probabilities 0·75-0·98). Female SBP was highest in some east and west African countries, with means of 135 mm Hg or greater. Male SBP was highest in Baltic and east and west African countries, where mean SBP reached 138 mm Hg or more. Men and women in western Europe had the highest SBP in high-income regions. On average, global population SBP decreased slightly since 1980, but trends varied significantly across regions and countries. SBP is currently highest in low-income and middle-income countries. Effective population-based and personal interventions should be targeted towards low-income and middle-income countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of Misalignment between Successive Corneal Videokeratography Maps on the Repeatability of Topography Data

PubMed Central

Bao, FangJun; Wang, JunJie; Huang, JinHai; Yu, Ye; Deng, ManLi; Li, LinNa; Yu, AYong; Wang, QinMei; Davey, Pinakin Gunvant; Elsheikh, Ahmed

2015-01-01

Purpose To improve the reliability of corneal topographic data through the development of a method to estimate the magnitude of misalignment between successive corneal videokeratography (VK) maps and eliminate the effect of misalignment on the repeatability of topography data. Methods Anterior and posterior topography maps were recorded twice for 124 healthy eyes of 124 participants using a Pentacam, and the repeatability of measurements was assessed by calculating the differences in elevation between each two sets of data. The repeatability of measurements was re-assessed following the determination of the magnitude of misalignment components (translational displacements: x0, y0 and z0, and rotational displacements: α, β and γ) between each two data sets and using them to modify the second data set within each pair based on an Iterative Closest Point (ICP) algorithm. The method simultaneously considered the anterior and posterior maps taken for the same eye since they were assumed to have the same set of misalignment components. A new parameter, named Combined Misalignment parameter (CM), has been developed to combine the effect of all six misalignment components on topography data and so enable study of the association between misalignment and the data repeatability test results. Results The repeatability tests resulted in average root mean square (RMS) differences in elevation data of 8.46±2.75 μm before ICP map matching when simultaneously considering anterior and posterior surfaces. With map matching and misalignment correction, the differences decreased to 7.28±2.58 μm (P = 0.00). When applied to only the anterior maps, misalignment correction led to a more pronounced reduction in elevation data differences from 4.58±1.84 μm to 2.97±1.29 μm (P = 0.00). CM was found to be associated with the repeatability error (P = 0.00), with posterior maps being responsible for most of the error due to their relatively lower accuracy compared to anterior maps. Conclusions The ICP algorithm can be used to estimate, and effectively correct for, the potential misalignment between successive corneal videokeratography maps. PMID:26599442

Conduction aphasia as a function of the dominant posterior perisylvian cortex. Report of two cases.

PubMed

Quigg, Mark; Geldmacher, David S; Elias, W Jeff

2006-05-01

Assessment of eloquent functions during brain mapping usually relies on testing reading, speech, and comprehension to uncover transient deficits during electrical stimulation. These tests stem from findings predicted by the Geschwind-Wernicke hypothesis of receptive and expressive cortices connected by white matter tracts. Later work, however, has emphasized cortical mechanisms of language function. The authors report two cases that demonstrate that conduction aphasia is cortically mediated and can be inadequately assessed if not specifically evaluated during brain mapping. To determine the distribution of language on the dominant cortex, electrical cortical stimulation was performed in two cases by using implanted subdural electrodes during brain mapping before epilepsy surgery. A transient isolated deficit in repetition of language was reported during stimulation of the posterior portion of the dominant superior temporal gyrus in one patient and during stimulation of the supramarginal gyrus in the other patient. These cases demonstrate a localization of language repetition to the posterior perisylvian cortex. Brain mapping of this region should include assessment of verbal repetition to avoid potential deficits resembling conduction aphasia.

Does T2 mapping of the posterior annulus fibrosus indicate the presence of lumbar intervertebral disc herniation? A 3.0 Tesla magnetic resonance study.

PubMed

Messner, Alina; Stelzeneder, David; Trattnig, Stefan; Welsch, Götz H; Schinhan, Martina; Apprich, Sebastian; Brix, Martin; Windhager, Reinhard; Trattnig, Siegfried

2017-03-01

Indicating lumbar disc herniation via magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) T2 mapping in the posterior annulus fibrosus (AF). Sagittal T2 maps of 313 lumbar discs of 64 patients with low back pain were acquired at 3.0 Tesla (3T). The discs were rated according to disc herniation and bulging. Region of interest (ROI) analysis was performed on median, sagittal T2 maps. T2 values of the AF, in the most posterior 10% (PAF-10) and 20% of the disc (PAF-20), were compared. A significant increase in the T2 values of discs with herniations affecting the imaged area, compared to bulging discs and discs with lateral herniation, was shown in the PAF-10, where no association to the NP was apparent. The PAF-20 exhibited a moderate correlation to the nucleus pulposus (NP). High T2 values in the PAF-10 suggest the presence of disc herniation (DH). The results indicate that T2 values in the PAF-20 correspond more to changes in the NP.

Some findings on zero-inflated and hurdle poisson models for disease mapping.

PubMed

Corpas-Burgos, Francisca; García-Donato, Gonzalo; Martinez-Beneito, Miguel A

2018-05-27

Zero excess in the study of geographically referenced mortality data sets has been the focus of considerable attention in the literature, with zero-inflation being the most common procedure to handle this lack of fit. Although hurdle models have also been used in disease mapping studies, their use is more rare. We show in this paper that models using particular treatments of zero excesses are often required for achieving appropriate fits in regular mortality studies since, otherwise, geographical units with low expected counts are oversmoothed. However, as also shown, an indiscriminate treatment of zero excess may be unnecessary and has a problematic implementation. In this regard, we find that naive zero-inflation and hurdle models, without an explicit modeling of the probabilities of zeroes, do not fix zero excesses problems well enough and are clearly unsatisfactory. Results sharply suggest the need for an explicit modeling of the probabilities that should vary across areal units. Unfortunately, these more flexible modeling strategies can easily lead to improper posterior distributions as we prove in several theoretical results. Those procedures have been repeatedly used in the disease mapping literature, and one should bear these issues in mind in order to propose valid models. We finally propose several valid modeling alternatives according to the results mentioned that are suitable for fitting zero excesses. We show that those proposals fix zero excesses problems and correct the mentioned oversmoothing of risks in low populated units depicting geographic patterns more suited to the data. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An Alternative Version of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of Probability Logic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Satake, Eiki; Amato, Philip P.

2008-01-01

This paper presents an alternative version of formulas of conditional probabilities and Bayes' rule that demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic applies to the derivations of the conditional probabilities of various complex, compound statements. This new approach is used to calculate the prior and posterior probabilities…

Medial meniscal posterior root/horn radial tears correlate with cartilage degeneration detected by T1ρ relaxation mapping.

PubMed

Takahashi, Kenji; Hashimoto, Sanshiro; Nakamura, Hiroshi; Mori, Atsushi; Sato, Akiko; Majima, Tokifumi; Takai, Shinro

2015-06-01

This study aimed to identify factors on routine pulse sequence MRI associated with cartilage degeneration observed on T1ρ relaxation mapping. This study included 137 subjects with knee pain. T1ρ values were measured in the regions of interest on the surface layer of the cartilage on mid-coronal images of the femorotibial joint. Assessment of cartilage, subchondral bone, meniscus and ligaments was performed using routine pulse sequence MRI. Radiographic evaluation for osteoarthritis was also performed. Multiple regression analysis revealed posterior root/horn tears to be independent factors increasing the T1ρ values of the cartilage in the medial compartment of the femorotibial joint. Even when adjusted for radiographically defined early-stage osteoarthritis, medial posterior meniscal radial tears significantly increased the T1ρ values. This study showed that posterior root/horn radial tears in the medial meniscus are particularly important MRI findings associated with cartilage degeneration observed on T1ρ relaxation mapping. Morphological factors of the medial meniscus on MRI provide findings useful for screening early-stage osteoarthritis. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maximum Entropy Approach in Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging.

PubMed

Farsani, Zahra Amini; Schmid, Volker J

2017-01-01

In the estimation of physiological kinetic parameters from Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging (DCE-MRI) data, the determination of the arterial input function (AIF) plays a key role. This paper proposes a Bayesian method to estimate the physiological parameters of DCE-MRI along with the AIF in situations, where no measurement of the AIF is available. In the proposed algorithm, the maximum entropy method (MEM) is combined with the maximum a posterior approach (MAP). To this end, MEM is used to specify a prior probability distribution of the unknown AIF. The ability of this method to estimate the AIF is validated using the Kullback-Leibler divergence. Subsequently, the kinetic parameters can be estimated with MAP. The proposed algorithm is evaluated with a data set from a breast cancer MRI study. The application shows that the AIF can reliably be determined from the DCE-MRI data using MEM. Kinetic parameters can be estimated subsequently. The maximum entropy method is a powerful tool to reconstructing images from many types of data. This method is useful for generating the probability distribution based on given information. The proposed method gives an alternative way to assess the input function from the existing data. The proposed method allows a good fit of the data and therefore a better estimation of the kinetic parameters. In the end, this allows for a more reliable use of DCE-MRI. Schattauer GmbH.

Forward and inverse uncertainty quantification using multilevel Monte Carlo algorithms for an elliptic non-local equation

DOE PAGES

Jasra, Ajay; Law, Kody J. H.; Zhou, Yan

2016-01-01

Our paper considers uncertainty quantification for an elliptic nonlocal equation. In particular, it is assumed that the parameters which define the kernel in the nonlocal operator are uncertain and a priori distributed according to a probability measure. It is shown that the induced probability measure on some quantities of interest arising from functionals of the solution to the equation with random inputs is well-defined,s as is the posterior distribution on parameters given observations. As the elliptic nonlocal equation cannot be solved approximate posteriors are constructed. The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) and multilevel sequential Monte Carlo (MLSMC) sampling algorithms are usedmore » for a priori and a posteriori estimation, respectively, of quantities of interest. Furthermore, these algorithms reduce the amount of work to estimate posterior expectations, for a given level of error, relative to Monte Carlo and i.i.d. sampling from the posterior at a given level of approximation of the solution of the elliptic nonlocal equation.« less

Forward and inverse uncertainty quantification using multilevel Monte Carlo algorithms for an elliptic non-local equation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jasra, Ajay; Law, Kody J. H.; Zhou, Yan

Our paper considers uncertainty quantification for an elliptic nonlocal equation. In particular, it is assumed that the parameters which define the kernel in the nonlocal operator are uncertain and a priori distributed according to a probability measure. It is shown that the induced probability measure on some quantities of interest arising from functionals of the solution to the equation with random inputs is well-defined,s as is the posterior distribution on parameters given observations. As the elliptic nonlocal equation cannot be solved approximate posteriors are constructed. The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) and multilevel sequential Monte Carlo (MLSMC) sampling algorithms are usedmore » for a priori and a posteriori estimation, respectively, of quantities of interest. Furthermore, these algorithms reduce the amount of work to estimate posterior expectations, for a given level of error, relative to Monte Carlo and i.i.d. sampling from the posterior at a given level of approximation of the solution of the elliptic nonlocal equation.« less

Coupling Self-Organizing Maps with a Naïve Bayesian classifier: A case study for classifying Vermont streams using geomorphic, habitat and biological assessment data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fytilis, N.; Rizzo, D. M.

2012-12-01

Environmental managers are increasingly required to forecast the long-term effects and the resilience or vulnerability of biophysical systems to human-generated stresses. Mitigation strategies for hydrological and environmental systems need to be assessed in the presence of uncertainty. An important aspect of such complex systems is the assessment of variable uncertainty on the model response outputs. We develop a new classification tool that couples a Naïve Bayesian Classifier with a modified Kohonen Self-Organizing Map to tackle this challenge. For proof-of-concept, we use rapid geomorphic and reach-scale habitat assessments data from over 2500 Vermont stream reaches (~1371 stream miles) assessed by the Vermont Agency of Natural Resources (VTANR). In addition, the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation (VTDEC) estimates stream habitat biodiversity indices (macro-invertebrates and fish) and a variety of water quality data. Our approach fully utilizes the existing VTANR and VTDEC data sets to improve classification of stream-reach habitat and biological integrity. The combined SOM-Naïve Bayesian architecture is sufficiently flexible to allow for continual updates and increased accuracy associated with acquiring new data. The Kohonen Self-Organizing Map (SOM) is an unsupervised artificial neural network that autonomously analyzes properties inherent in a given a set of data. It is typically used to cluster data vectors into similar categories when a priori classes do not exist. The ability of the SOM to convert nonlinear, high dimensional data to some user-defined lower dimension and mine large amounts of data types (i.e., discrete or continuous, biological or geomorphic data) makes it ideal for characterizing the sensitivity of river networks in a variety of contexts. The procedure is data-driven, and therefore does not require the development of site-specific, process-based classification stream models, or sets of if-then-else rules associated with expert systems. This has the potential to save time and resources, while enabling a truly adaptive management approach using existing knowledge (expressed as prior probabilities) and new information (expressed as likelihood functions) to update estimates (i.e., in this case, improved stream classifications expressed as posterior probabilities). The distribution parameters of these posterior probabilities are used to quantify uncertainty associated with environmental data. Since classification plays a leading role in the future development of data-enabled science and engineering, such a computational tool is applicable to a variety of engineering applications. The ability of the new classification neural network to characterize streams with high environmental risk is essential for a proactive adaptive watershed management approach.

Bayesian approach to inverse statistical mechanics.

PubMed

Habeck, Michael

2014-05-01

Inverse statistical mechanics aims to determine particle interactions from ensemble properties. This article looks at this inverse problem from a Bayesian perspective and discusses several statistical estimators to solve it. In addition, a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed that draws the interaction parameters from their posterior probability distribution. The posterior probability involves an intractable partition function that is estimated along with the interactions. The method is illustrated for inverse problems of varying complexity, including the estimation of a temperature, the inverse Ising problem, maximum entropy fitting, and the reconstruction of molecular interaction potentials.

Bayesian approach to inverse statistical mechanics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Habeck, Michael

2014-05-01

Inverse statistical mechanics aims to determine particle interactions from ensemble properties. This article looks at this inverse problem from a Bayesian perspective and discusses several statistical estimators to solve it. In addition, a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed that draws the interaction parameters from their posterior probability distribution. The posterior probability involves an intractable partition function that is estimated along with the interactions. The method is illustrated for inverse problems of varying complexity, including the estimation of a temperature, the inverse Ising problem, maximum entropy fitting, and the reconstruction of molecular interaction potentials.

Minimization for conditional simulation: Relationship to optimal transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oliver, Dean S.

2014-05-01

In this paper, we consider the problem of generating independent samples from a conditional distribution when independent samples from the prior distribution are available. Although there are exact methods for sampling from the posterior (e.g. Markov chain Monte Carlo or acceptance/rejection), these methods tend to be computationally demanding when evaluation of the likelihood function is expensive, as it is for most geoscience applications. As an alternative, in this paper we discuss deterministic mappings of variables distributed according to the prior to variables distributed according to the posterior. Although any deterministic mappings might be equally useful, we will focus our discussion on a class of algorithms that obtain implicit mappings by minimization of a cost function that includes measures of data mismatch and model variable mismatch. Algorithms of this type include quasi-linear estimation, randomized maximum likelihood, perturbed observation ensemble Kalman filter, and ensemble of perturbed analyses (4D-Var). When the prior pdf is Gaussian and the observation operators are linear, we show that these minimization-based simulation methods solve an optimal transport problem with a nonstandard cost function. When the observation operators are nonlinear, however, the mapping of variables from the prior to the posterior obtained from those methods is only approximate. Errors arise from neglect of the Jacobian determinant of the transformation and from the possibility of discontinuous mappings.

Effect of brain shift on the creation of functional atlases for deep brain stimulation surgery

PubMed Central

Pallavaram, Srivatsan; Remple, Michael S.; Neimat, Joseph S.; Kao, Chris; Konrad, Peter E.; D’Haese, Pierre-François

2011-01-01

Purpose In the recent past many groups have tried to build functional atlases of the deep brain using intra-operatively acquired information such as stimulation responses or micro-electrode recordings. An underlying assumption in building such atlases is that anatomical structures do not move between pre-operative imaging and intra-operative recording. In this study, we present evidences that this assumption is not valid. We quantify the effect of brain shift between pre-operative imaging and intra-operative recording on the creation of functional atlases using intra-operative somatotopy recordings and stimulation response data. Methods A total of 73 somatotopy points from 24 bilateral subthalamic nucleus (STN) implantations and 52 eye deviation stimulation response points from 17 bilateral STN implantations were used. These points were spatially normalized on a magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) atlas using a fully automatic non-rigid registration algorithm. Each implantation was categorized as having low, medium or large brain shift based on the amount of pneumocephalus visible on post-operative CT. The locations of somatotopy clusters and stimulation maps were analyzed for each category. Results The centroid of the large brain shift cluster of the somatotopy data (posterior, lateral, inferior: 3.06, 11.27, 5.36 mm) was found posterior, medial and inferior to that of the medium cluster (2.90, 13.57, 4.53 mm) which was posterior, medial and inferior to that of the low shift cluster (1.94, 13.92, 3.20 mm). The coordinates are referenced with respect to the mid-commissural point. Euclidean distances between the centroids were 1.68, 2.44 and 3.59 mm, respectively for low-medium, medium-large and low-large shift clusters. We found similar trends for the positions of the stimulation maps. The Euclidian distance between the highest probability locations on the low and medium-large shift maps was 4.06 mm. Conclusion The effect of brain shift in deep brain stimulation (DBS) surgery has been demonstrated using intra-operative somatotopy recordings as well as stimulation response data. The results not only indicate that considerable brain shift happens before micro-electrode recordings in DBS but also that brain shift affects the creation of accurate functional atlases. Therefore, care must be taken when building and using such atlases of intra-operative data and also when using intra-operative data to validate anatomical atlases. PMID:20033503

Per-field crop classification in irrigated agricultural regions in middle Asia using random forest and support vector machine ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löw, Fabian; Schorcht, Gunther; Michel, Ulrich; Dech, Stefan; Conrad, Christopher

2012-10-01

Accurate crop identification and crop area estimation are important for studies on irrigated agricultural systems, yield and water demand modeling, and agrarian policy development. In this study a novel combination of Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers is presented that (i) enhances crop classification accuracy and (ii) provides spatial information on map uncertainty. The methodology was implemented over four distinct irrigated sites in Middle Asia using RapidEye time series data. The RF feature importance statistics was used as feature-selection strategy for the SVM to assess possible negative effects on classification accuracy caused by an oversized feature space. The results of the individual RF and SVM classifications were combined with rules based on posterior classification probability and estimates of classification probability entropy. SVM classification performance was increased by feature selection through RF. Further experimental results indicate that the hybrid classifier improves overall classification accuracy in comparison to the single classifiers as well as useŕs and produceŕs accuracy.

Uncertainty quantification of crustal scale thermo-chemical properties in Southeast Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mather, B.; Moresi, L. N.; Rayner, P. J.

2017-12-01

The thermo-chemical properties of the crust are essential to understanding the mechanical and thermal state of the lithosphere. The uncertainties associated with these parameters are connected to the available geophysical observations and a priori information to constrain the objective function. Often, it is computationally efficient to reduce the parameter space by mapping large portions of the crust into lithologies that have assumed homogeneity. However, the boundaries of these lithologies are, in themselves, uncertain and should also be included in the inverse problem. We assimilate geological uncertainties from an a priori geological model of Southeast Australia with geophysical uncertainties from S-wave tomography and 174 heat flow observations within an adjoint inversion framework. This reduces the computational cost of inverting high dimensional probability spaces, compared to probabilistic inversion techniques that operate in the `forward' mode, but at the sacrifice of uncertainty and covariance information. We overcome this restriction using a sensitivity analysis, that perturbs our observations and a priori information within their probability distributions, to estimate the posterior uncertainty of thermo-chemical parameters in the crust.

Screening for SNPs with Allele-Specific Methylation based on Next-Generation Sequencing Data.

PubMed

Hu, Bo; Ji, Yuan; Xu, Yaomin; Ting, Angela H

2013-05-01

Allele-specific methylation (ASM) has long been studied but mainly documented in the context of genomic imprinting and X chromosome inactivation. Taking advantage of the next-generation sequencing technology, we conduct a high-throughput sequencing experiment with four prostate cell lines to survey the whole genome and identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with ASM. A Bayesian approach is proposed to model the counts of short reads for each SNP conditional on its genotypes of multiple subjects, leading to a posterior probability of ASM. We flag SNPs with high posterior probabilities of ASM by accounting for multiple comparisons based on posterior false discovery rates. Applying the Bayesian approach to the in-house prostate cell line data, we identify 269 SNPs as candidates of ASM. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the quantitative performance of the proposed approach.

Posterior probability of linkage and maximal lod score.

PubMed

Génin, E; Martinez, M; Clerget-Darpoux, F

1995-01-01

To detect linkage between a trait and a marker, Morton (1955) proposed to calculate the lod score z(theta 1) at a given value theta 1 of the recombination fraction. If z(theta 1) reaches +3 then linkage is concluded. However, in practice, lod scores are calculated for different values of the recombination fraction between 0 and 0.5 and the test is based on the maximum value of the lod score Zmax. The impact of this deviation of the test on the probability that in fact linkage does not exist, when linkage was concluded, is documented here. This posterior probability of no linkage can be derived by using Bayes' theorem. It is less than 5% when the lod score at a predetermined theta 1 is used for the test. But, for a Zmax of +3, we showed that it can reach 16.4%. Thus, considering a composite alternative hypothesis instead of a single one decreases the reliability of the test. The reliability decreases rapidly when Zmax is less than +3. Given a Zmax of +2.5, there is a 33% chance that linkage does not exist. Moreover, the posterior probability depends not only on the value of Zmax but also jointly on the family structures and on the genetic model. For a given Zmax, the chance that linkage exists may then vary.

Estimation of flock/herd-level true Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis prevalence on sheep, beef cattle and deer farms in New Zealand using a novel Bayesian model.

PubMed

Verdugo, Cristobal; Jones, Geoff; Johnson, Wes; Wilson, Peter; Stringer, Lesley; Heuer, Cord

2014-12-01

The study aimed to estimate the national- and island-level flock/herd true prevalence (HTP) of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in pastoral farmed sheep, beef cattle and deer in New Zealand. A random sample of 238 single- or multi-species farms was selected from a postal surveyed population of 1940 farms. The sample included 162 sheep flocks, 116 beef cattle and 99 deer herds from seven of 16 geographical regions. Twenty animals from each species present on farm were randomly selected for blood and faecal sampling. Pooled faecal culture testing was conducted using a single pool (sheep flocks) or two pools (beef cattle/deer herds) of 20 and 10 samples per pool, respectively. To increase flock/herd-level sensitivity, sera from all 20 animals from culture negative flocks/herds were individually tested by Pourquier(®) ELISA (sheep and cattle) or Paralisa™ (deer). Results were adjusted for sensitivity and specificity of diagnostic tests using a novel Bayesian latent class model. Outcomes were adjusted by their sampling fractions to obtain HTP estimates at national level. For each species, the posterior probability (POPR) of HTP differences between New Zealand North (NI) and South (SI) Islands was obtained. Across all species, 69% of farms had at least one species test positive. Sheep flocks had the highest HTP estimate (76%, posterior probability interval (PPI) 70-81%), followed by deer (46%, PPI 38-55%) and beef herds (42%, PPI 35-50%). Differences were observed between the two main islands of New Zealand, with higher HTP in sheep and beef cattle flocks/herds in the NI. Sheep flock HTP was 80% in the NI compared with 70% (POPR=0.96) in the SI, while the HTP for beef cattle was 44% in the NI and 38% in the SI (POPR=0.80). Conversely, deer HTP was higher in the SI (54%) than the NI (33%, POPR=0.99). Infection with MAP is endemic at high prevalence in sheep, beef cattle and deer flocks/herds across New Zealand. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Short communication: Evaluation of sampling socks for detection of Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis on dairy farms.

PubMed

Wolf, R; Orsel, K; De Buck, J; Kanevets, U; Barkema, H W

2016-04-01

Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) causes Johne's disease, a production-limiting disease in cattle. Detection of infected herds is often done using environmental samples (ES) of manure, which are collected in cattle pens and manure storage areas. Disadvantages of the method are that sample accuracy is affected by cattle housing and type of manure storage area. Furthermore, some sampling locations (e.g., manure lagoons) are frequently not readily accessible. However, sampling socks (SO), as used for Salmonella spp. testing in chicken flocks, might be an easy to use and accurate alternative to ES. The objective of the study was to assess accuracy of SO for detection of MAP in dairy herds. At each of 102 participating herds, 6 ES and 2 SO were collected. In total, 45 herds had only negative samples in both methods and 29 herds had ≥1 positive ES and ≥1 positive SO. Furthermore, 27 herds with ≥1 positive ES had no positive SO, and 1 herd with no positive ES had 1 positive SO. Bayesian simulation with informative priors on sensitivity of ES and MAP herd prevalence provided a posterior sensitivity for SO of 43.5% (95% probability interval=33-58), and 78.5% (95% probability interval=62-93) for ES. Although SO were easy to use, accuracy was lower than for ES. Therefore, with improvements in the sampling protocol (e.g., more SO per farm and more frequent herd visits), as well as improvements in the laboratory protocol, perhaps SO would be a useful alternative for ES. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

POSTERIOR PREDICTIVE MODEL CHECKS FOR DISEASE MAPPING MODELS. (R827257)

EPA Science Inventory

Disease incidence or disease mortality rates for small areas are often displayed on maps. Maps of raw rates, disease counts divided by the total population at risk, have been criticized as unreliable due to non-constant variance associated with heterogeneity in base population si...

Surface feature-guided mapping of cerebral metabolic changes in cognitively normal and mildly impaired elderly.

PubMed

Apostolova, Liana G; Thompson, Paul M; Rogers, Steve A; Dinov, Ivo D; Zoumalan, Charleen; Steiner, Calen A; Siu, Erin; Green, Amity E; Small, Gary W; Toga, Arthur W; Cummings, Jeffrey L; Phelps, Michael E; Silverman, Daniel H

2010-04-01

The aim of this study was to investigate the longitudinal positron emission tomography (PET) metabolic changes in the elderly. Nineteen nondemented subjects (mean Mini-Mental Status Examination 29.4 +/- 0.7 SD) underwent two detailed neuropsychological evaluations and resting 2-deoxy-2-[F-18]fluoro-D: -glucose (FDG)-PET scan (interval 21.7 +/- 3.7 months), baseline structural 3T magnetic resonance (MR) imaging, and apolipoprotein E4 genotyping. Cortical PET metabolic changes were analyzed in 3-D using the cortical pattern matching technique. Baseline vs. follow-up whole-group comparison revealed significant metabolic decline bilaterally in the posterior temporal, parietal, and occipital lobes and the left lateral frontal cortex. The declining group demonstrated 10-15% decline in bilateral posterior cingulate/precuneus, posterior temporal, parietal, and occipital cortices. The cognitively stable group showed 2.5-5% similarly distributed decline. ApoE4-positive individuals underwent 5-15% metabolic decline in the posterior association cortices. Using 3-D surface-based MR-guided FDG-PET mapping, significant metabolic changes were seen in five posterior and the left lateral frontal regions. The changes were more pronounced for the declining relative to the cognitively stable group.

On Probability Domains IV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frič, Roman; Papčo, Martin

2017-12-01

Stressing a categorical approach, we continue our study of fuzzified domains of probability, in which classical random events are replaced by measurable fuzzy random events. In operational probability theory (S. Bugajski) classical random variables are replaced by statistical maps (generalized distribution maps induced by random variables) and in fuzzy probability theory (S. Gudder) the central role is played by observables (maps between probability domains). We show that to each of the two generalized probability theories there corresponds a suitable category and the two resulting categories are dually equivalent. Statistical maps and observables become morphisms. A statistical map can send a degenerated (pure) state to a non-degenerated one —a quantum phenomenon and, dually, an observable can map a crisp random event to a genuine fuzzy random event —a fuzzy phenomenon. The dual equivalence means that the operational probability theory and the fuzzy probability theory coincide and the resulting generalized probability theory has two dual aspects: quantum and fuzzy. We close with some notes on products and coproducts in the dual categories.

Variations in the surface anatomy of the spinal accessory nerve in the posterior triangle.

PubMed

Symes, A; Ellis, H

2005-12-01

Iatrogenic injury to the spinal accessory nerve has been widely documented and can have medico-legal implications. The resulting syndrome of pain, paralysis and winging of the scapula are often the source of considerable morbidity. This paper researches the degree of accuracy achievable in mapping the surface anatomy of the spinal accessory nerve in the region of the posterior triangle with a view to creating a cartographical aid to surgical procedures. The necks of 25 adult cadavers were dissected bilaterally to expose the spinal accessory nerve. Variations in the course and distribution of the spinal accessory nerve in the posterior triangle were recorded along with its relationship to the borders of sternocleidomastoid and trapezius. Considerable variation was seen in the surface and regional anatomy of the nerve and in the contribution of the cervical plexus to the spinal accessory nerve in the posterior triangle. Measurements of the running course and exit point of the nerve into and from the posterior triangle differed significantly from those previously recorded. Delineation of an accurate surface anatomy was not possible. Creating a map to define the surface anatomy of the spinal accessory nerve in the posterior triangle is an unrealistic goal given its wide variations in man. Avoidance of damage to the spinal accessory nerve cannot be achieved by slavishly adhering to surface markings given in textbooks, but only by cautious dissection during operations on the posterior triangle.

An agglomerative hierarchical clustering approach to visualisation in Bayesian clustering problems

PubMed Central

Dawson, Kevin J.; Belkhir, Khalid

2009-01-01

Clustering problems (including the clustering of individuals into outcrossing populations, hybrid generations, full-sib families and selfing lines) have recently received much attention in population genetics. In these clustering problems, the parameter of interest is a partition of the set of sampled individuals, - the sample partition. In a fully Bayesian approach to clustering problems of this type, our knowledge about the sample partition is represented by a probability distribution on the space of possible sample partitions. Since the number of possible partitions grows very rapidly with the sample size, we can not visualise this probability distribution in its entirety, unless the sample is very small. As a solution to this visualisation problem, we recommend using an agglomerative hierarchical clustering algorithm, which we call the exact linkage algorithm. This algorithm is a special case of the maximin clustering algorithm that we introduced previously. The exact linkage algorithm is now implemented in our software package Partition View. The exact linkage algorithm takes the posterior co-assignment probabilities as input, and yields as output a rooted binary tree, - or more generally, a forest of such trees. Each node of this forest defines a set of individuals, and the node height is the posterior co-assignment probability of this set. This provides a useful visual representation of the uncertainty associated with the assignment of individuals to categories. It is also a useful starting point for a more detailed exploration of the posterior distribution in terms of the co-assignment probabilities. PMID:19337306

Central posterior capsule pigmentation in a patient with pigment dispersion and previous ocular trauma: a case report.

PubMed

Al-Mezaine, Hani S

2010-01-01

We report a 55-year-old man with unusually dense, unilateral central posterior capsule pigmentation associated with the characteristic clinical features of pigment dispersion syndrome, including a Krukenberg's spindle and dense trabecular pigmentation in both eyes. A history of an old blunt ocular trauma probably caused separation of the anterior hyaloid from the back of the lens, thereby creating an avenue by which pigment could reach the potential space of Berger's from the posterior chamber.

Central posterior capsule pigmentation in a patient with pigment dispersion and previous ocular trauma: A case report

PubMed Central

Al-Mezaine, Hani S

2010-01-01

We report a 55-year-old man with unusually dense, unilateral central posterior capsule pigmentation associated with the characteristic clinical features of pigment dispersion syndrome, including a Krukenberg's spindle and dense trabecular pigmentation in both eyes. A history of an old blunt ocular trauma probably caused separation of the anterior hyaloid from the back of the lens, thereby creating an avenue by which pigment could reach the potential space of Berger's from the posterior chamber. PMID:20534930

Speech processing using conditional observable maximum likelihood continuity mapping

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hogden, John; Nix, David

A computer implemented method enables the recognition of speech and speech characteristics. Parameters are initialized of first probability density functions that map between the symbols in the vocabulary of one or more sequences of speech codes that represent speech sounds and a continuity map. Parameters are also initialized of second probability density functions that map between the elements in the vocabulary of one or more desired sequences of speech transcription symbols and the continuity map. The parameters of the probability density functions are then trained to maximize the probabilities of the desired sequences of speech-transcription symbols. A new sequence ofmore » speech codes is then input to the continuity map having the trained first and second probability function parameters. A smooth path is identified on the continuity map that has the maximum probability for the new sequence of speech codes. The probability of each speech transcription symbol for each input speech code can then be output.« less

Screening for SNPs with Allele-Specific Methylation based on Next-Generation Sequencing Data

PubMed Central

Hu, Bo; Xu, Yaomin

2013-01-01

Allele-specific methylation (ASM) has long been studied but mainly documented in the context of genomic imprinting and X chromosome inactivation. Taking advantage of the next-generation sequencing technology, we conduct a high-throughput sequencing experiment with four prostate cell lines to survey the whole genome and identify single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with ASM. A Bayesian approach is proposed to model the counts of short reads for each SNP conditional on its genotypes of multiple subjects, leading to a posterior probability of ASM. We flag SNPs with high posterior probabilities of ASM by accounting for multiple comparisons based on posterior false discovery rates. Applying the Bayesian approach to the in-house prostate cell line data, we identify 269 SNPs as candidates of ASM. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the quantitative performance of the proposed approach. PMID:23710259

Can Probability Maps of Swept-Source Optical Coherence Tomography Predict Visual Field Changes in Preperimetric Glaucoma?

PubMed

Lee, Won June; Kim, Young Kook; Jeoung, Jin Wook; Park, Ki Ho

2017-12-01

To determine the usefulness of swept-source optical coherence tomography (SS-OCT) probability maps in detecting locations with significant reduction in visual field (VF) sensitivity or predicting future VF changes, in patients with classically defined preperimetric glaucoma (PPG). Of 43 PPG patients, 43 eyes were followed-up on every 6 months for at least 2 years were analyzed in this longitudinal study. The patients underwent wide-field SS-OCT scanning and standard automated perimetry (SAP) at the time of enrollment. With this wide-scan protocol, probability maps originating from the corresponding thickness map and overlapped with SAP VF test points could be generated. We evaluated the vulnerable VF points with SS-OCT probability maps as well as the prevalence of locations with significant VF reduction or subsequent VF changes observed in the corresponding damaged areas of the probability maps. The vulnerable VF points were shown in superior and inferior arcuate patterns near the central fixation. In 19 of 43 PPG eyes (44.2%), significant reduction in baseline VF was detected within the areas of structural change on the SS-OCT probability maps. In 16 of 43 PPG eyes (37.2%), subsequent VF changes within the areas of SS-OCT probability map change were observed over the course of the follow-up. Structural changes on SS-OCT probability maps could detect or predict VF changes using SAP, in a considerable number of PPG eyes. Careful comparison of probability maps with SAP results could be useful in diagnosing and monitoring PPG patients in the clinical setting.

Sea Ice Concentration Estimation Using Active and Passive Remote Sensing Data Fusion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Y.; Li, F.; Zhang, S.; Zhu, T.

2017-12-01

In this abstract, a decision-level fusion method by utilizing SAR and passive microwave remote sensing data for sea ice concentration estimation is investigated. Sea ice concentration product from passive microwave concentration retrieval methods has large uncertainty within thin ice zone. Passive microwave data including SSM/I, AMSR-E, and AMSR-2 provide daily and long time series observations covering whole polar sea ice scene, and SAR images provide rich sea ice details with high spatial resolution including deformation and polarimetric features. In the proposed method, the merits from passive microwave data and SAR data are considered. Sea ice concentration products from ASI and sea ice category label derived from CRF framework in SAR imagery are calibrated under least distance protocol. For SAR imagery, incident angle and azimuth angle were used to correct backscattering values from slant range to ground range in order to improve geocoding accuracy. The posterior probability distribution between category label from SAR imagery and passive microwave sea ice concentration product is modeled and integrated under Bayesian network, where Gaussian statistical distribution from ASI sea ice concentration products serves as the prior term, which represented as an uncertainty of sea ice concentration. Empirical model based likelihood term is constructed under Bernoulli theory, which meets the non-negative and monotonically increasing conditions. In the posterior probability estimation procedure, final sea ice concentration is obtained using MAP criterion, which equals to minimize the cost function and it can be calculated with nonlinear iteration method. The proposed algorithm is tested on multiple satellite SAR data sets including GF-3, Sentinel-1A, RADARSAT-2 and Envisat ASAR. Results show that the proposed algorithm can improve the accuracy of ASI sea ice concentration products and reduce the uncertainty along the ice edge.

Generative adversarial networks for brain lesion detection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alex, Varghese; Safwan, K. P. Mohammed; Chennamsetty, Sai Saketh; Krishnamurthi, Ganapathy

2017-02-01

Manual segmentation of brain lesions from Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) is cumbersome and introduces errors due to inter-rater variability. This paper introduces a semi-supervised technique for detection of brain lesion from MRI using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). GANs comprises of a Generator network and a Discriminator network which are trained simultaneously with the objective of one bettering the other. The networks were trained using non lesion patches (n=13,000) from 4 different MR sequences. The network was trained on BraTS dataset and patches were extracted from regions excluding tumor region. The Generator network generates data by modeling the underlying probability distribution of the training data, (PData). The Discriminator learns the posterior probability P (Label Data) by classifying training data and generated data as "Real" or "Fake" respectively. The Generator upon learning the joint distribution, produces images/patches such that the performance of the Discriminator on them are random, i.e. P (Label Data = GeneratedData) = 0.5. During testing, the Discriminator assigns posterior probability values close to 0.5 for patches from non lesion regions, while patches centered on lesion arise from a different distribution (PLesion) and hence are assigned lower posterior probability value by the Discriminator. On the test set (n=14), the proposed technique achieves whole tumor dice score of 0.69, sensitivity of 91% and specificity of 59%. Additionally the generator network was capable of generating non lesion patches from various MR sequences.

Graphical methods for the sensitivity analysis in discriminant analysis

DOE PAGES

Kim, Youngil; Anderson-Cook, Christine M.; Dae-Heung, Jang

2015-09-30

Similar to regression, many measures to detect influential data points in discriminant analysis have been developed. Many follow similar principles as the diagnostic measures used in linear regression in the context of discriminant analysis. Here we focus on the impact on the predicted classification posterior probability when a data point is omitted. The new method is intuitive and easily interpretative compared to existing methods. We also propose a graphical display to show the individual movement of the posterior probability of other data points when a specific data point is omitted. This enables the summaries to capture the overall pattern ofmore » the change.« less

Bayesian selection of misspecified models is overconfident and may cause spurious posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees.

PubMed

Yang, Ziheng; Zhu, Tianqi

2018-02-20

The Bayesian method is noted to produce spuriously high posterior probabilities for phylogenetic trees in analysis of large datasets, but the precise reasons for this overconfidence are unknown. In general, the performance of Bayesian selection of misspecified models is poorly understood, even though this is of great scientific interest since models are never true in real data analysis. Here we characterize the asymptotic behavior of Bayesian model selection and show that when the competing models are equally wrong, Bayesian model selection exhibits surprising and polarized behaviors in large datasets, supporting one model with full force while rejecting the others. If one model is slightly less wrong than the other, the less wrong model will eventually win when the amount of data increases, but the method may become overconfident before it becomes reliable. We suggest that this extreme behavior may be a major factor for the spuriously high posterior probabilities for evolutionary trees. The philosophical implications of our results to the application of Bayesian model selection to evaluate opposing scientific hypotheses are yet to be explored, as are the behaviors of non-Bayesian methods in similar situations.

A Bayesian Approach to Evaluating Consistency between Climate Model Output and Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Braverman, A. J.; Cressie, N.; Teixeira, J.

2010-12-01

Like other scientific and engineering problems that involve physical modeling of complex systems, climate models can be evaluated and diagnosed by comparing their output to observations of similar quantities. Though the global remote sensing data record is relatively short by climate research standards, these data offer opportunities to evaluate model predictions in new ways. For example, remote sensing data are spatially and temporally dense enough to provide distributional information that goes beyond simple moments to allow quantification of temporal and spatial dependence structures. In this talk, we propose a new method for exploiting these rich data sets using a Bayesian paradigm. For a collection of climate models, we calculate posterior probabilities its members best represent the physical system each seeks to reproduce. The posterior probability is based on the likelihood that a chosen summary statistic, computed from observations, would be obtained when the model's output is considered as a realization from a stochastic process. By exploring how posterior probabilities change with different statistics, we may paint a more quantitative and complete picture of the strengths and weaknesses of the models relative to the observations. We demonstrate our method using model output from the CMIP archive, and observations from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder.

Topics in inference and decision-making with partial knowledge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Safavian, S. Rasoul; Landgrebe, David

1990-01-01

Two essential elements needed in the process of inference and decision-making are prior probabilities and likelihood functions. When both of these components are known accurately and precisely, the Bayesian approach provides a consistent and coherent solution to the problems of inference and decision-making. In many situations, however, either one or both of the above components may not be known, or at least may not be known precisely. This problem of partial knowledge about prior probabilities and likelihood functions is addressed. There are at least two ways to cope with this lack of precise knowledge: robust methods, and interval-valued methods. First, ways of modeling imprecision and indeterminacies in prior probabilities and likelihood functions are examined; then how imprecision in the above components carries over to the posterior probabilities is examined. Finally, the problem of decision making with imprecise posterior probabilities and the consequences of such actions are addressed. Application areas where the above problems may occur are in statistical pattern recognition problems, for example, the problem of classification of high-dimensional multispectral remote sensing image data.

A Bayesian predictive two-stage design for phase II clinical trials.

PubMed

Sambucini, Valeria

2008-04-15

In this paper, we propose a Bayesian two-stage design for phase II clinical trials, which represents a predictive version of the single threshold design (STD) recently introduced by Tan and Machin. The STD two-stage sample sizes are determined specifying a minimum threshold for the posterior probability that the true response rate exceeds a pre-specified target value and assuming that the observed response rate is slightly higher than the target. Unlike the STD, we do not refer to a fixed experimental outcome, but take into account the uncertainty about future data. In both stages, the design aims to control the probability of getting a large posterior probability that the true response rate exceeds the target value. Such a probability is expressed in terms of prior predictive distributions of the data. The performance of the design is based on the distinction between analysis and design priors, recently introduced in the literature. The properties of the method are studied when all the design parameters vary.

[Successful transcatheter ablation of fascicular potential in pediatric patients with left posterior fascicular tachycardia].

PubMed

Zeng, Shao-ying; Shi, Ji-jun; Li, Hong; Zhang, Zhi-wei; Li, Yu-fen

2010-08-01

To simplify the methods of transcatheter mapping and ablation in the pediatric patients with left posterior fascicular tachycardia. While in sinus rhythm, the fascicular potential can be mapped at the posterior septal region (1 - 2 cm below inferior margin of orifice of coronary sinus vein), which display a biphasic wave before ventricular wave, and exist equipotential lines between them. When the fascicular potential occurs 20 ms later than the bundle of His' potential, radiofrequency was applied. Before applying radiofrequency, catheter position must be observed using double angle viewing (LAO 45°RAO 30°), and it should be made sure that the catheter is not at His' bundle. If the electrocardiogram displays left posterior fascicular block, the correct region is identified and ablation can continue for 60 s. Electrocardiogram monitoring should continue for 24 - 48 hours after operation, and notice abnormal repolarization after termination of ventricular tachycardia. Aspirin [2 - 3 mg/(kg·d)] was used for 3 months, and antiarrhythmic drug was discontinued. Surface electrocardiogram, chest X-ray and ultrasound cardiography were rechecked 1 d after operation. Follow-up was made at 1 month and 3 months post-discharge. Recheck was made half-yearly or follow-up was done by phone from then on. Fifteen pediatric patients were ablated successfully, and their electrocardiograms all displayed left posterior fascicular block after ablation. None of the patients had recurrences during the 3 to 12 months follow-up period. In one case, the electrocardiogram did not change after applying radiofrequency ablation and the ventricular tachycardia remained; however, on second attempt after remapping, the electrocardiogram did change. The radiofrequency lasted for 90 seconds and ablation was successful. This case had no recurrences at 6 months follow-up. Transcatheter ablation of the fascicular potential in pediatric patients with left posterior fascicular tachycardia can simplify mapping, reduce operative difficulty and produce a distinct endpoint for ablation.

Bayesian operational modal analysis with asynchronous data, Part II: Posterior uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Yi-Chen; Au, Siu-Kui

2018-01-01

A Bayesian modal identification method has been proposed in the companion paper that allows the most probable values of modal parameters to be determined using asynchronous ambient vibration data. This paper investigates the identification uncertainty of modal parameters in terms of their posterior covariance matrix. Computational issues are addressed. Analytical expressions are derived to allow the posterior covariance matrix to be evaluated accurately and efficiently. Synthetic, laboratory and field data examples are presented to verify the consistency, investigate potential modelling error and demonstrate practical applications.

Simultaneous anterior and posterior serosal mapping of gastric slow-wave dysrhythmias induced by vasopressin.

PubMed

Du, Peng; O'Grady, Gregory; Paskaranandavadivel, Niranchan; Tang, Shou-Jiang; Abell, Thomas; Cheng, Leo K

2016-06-06

What is the central question of this study? This study aimed to provide the first comparison of simultaneous high-resolution mapping of anterior and posterior gastric serosa over sustained periods. What is the main finding and its importance? Episodes of spontaneous gastric slow-wave dysrhythmias increased significantly following intravenous infusion of vasopressin compared with the baseline state. A number of persistent dysrhythmias were defined, including ectopic activation, conduction block, rotor, retrograde and collision/merger of wavefronts. Slow-wave dysrhythmias could occur either simultaneously or independently on the anterior and posterior gastric serosa, and interacted depending on activation-repolarization and frequency dynamics. High-resolution mapping enables mechanistic insights into gastric slow-wave dysrhythmias and is now achieving clinical translation. However, previous studies have focused mainly on dysrhythmias occurring on the anterior gastric wall. The present study simultaneously mapped the anterior and posterior gastric serosa during episodes of dysrhythmias induced by vasopressin to aid understanding of dysrhythmia initiation, maintenance and termination. High-resolution mapping (8 × 16 electrodes on each serosa; 20-74 cm 2 ) was performed in anaesthetized dogs. Baseline recordings (21 ± 8 min) were followed by intravenous infusion of vasopressin (0.1-0.5 IU ml -1 at 60-190 ml h -1 ) and further recordings (22 ± 13 min). Slow-wave activation maps, amplitudes, velocity, interval and frequency were calculated, and differences compared between baseline and postinfusion. All dogs demonstrated an increased prevalence of dysrhythmic events following infusion of vasopressin (17 versus 51%). Both amplitude and velocity demonstrated significant differences (baseline versus postinfusion: 3.6 versus 2.2 mV; 7.7 versus 6.5 mm s -1 ; P < 0.05 for both). Dysrhythmias occurred simultaneously or independently on the anterior and posterior serosa, and then interacted according to frequency dynamics. A number of persistent dysrhythmias were compared, including the following: ectopic activation (n = 2 animals), conduction block (n = 1), rotor (n = 2), retrograde (n = 3) and collision/merger of wavefronts (n = 2). We conclude that infusion of vasopressin induces gastric dysrhythmias, which occur across a heterogeneous range of frequencies and patterns. The results demonstrate that different classes of gastric dysrhythmias may arise simultaneously or independently in one or both surfaces of the serosa, then interact according to their relative frequencies. These results will help to inform interpretation of clinical dysrhythmia. © 2016 The Authors. Experimental Physiology © 2016 The Physiological Society.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

La Russa, D

Purpose: The purpose of this project is to develop a robust method of parameter estimation for a Poisson-based TCP model using Bayesian inference. Methods: Bayesian inference was performed using the PyMC3 probabilistic programming framework written in Python. A Poisson-based TCP regression model that accounts for clonogen proliferation was fit to observed rates of local relapse as a function of equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions for a population of 623 stage-I non-small-cell lung cancer patients. The Slice Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm was used to sample the posterior distributions, and was initiated using the maximum of the posterior distributionsmore » found by optimization. The calculation of TCP with each sample step required integration over the free parameter α, which was performed using an adaptive 24-point Gauss-Legendre quadrature. Convergence was verified via inspection of the trace plot and posterior distribution for each of the fit parameters, as well as with comparisons of the most probable parameter values with their respective maximum likelihood estimates. Results: Posterior distributions for α, the standard deviation of α (σ), the average tumour cell-doubling time (Td), and the repopulation delay time (Tk), were generated assuming α/β = 10 Gy, and a fixed clonogen density of 10{sup 7} cm−{sup 3}. Posterior predictive plots generated from samples from these posterior distributions are in excellent agreement with the observed rates of local relapse used in the Bayesian inference. The most probable values of the model parameters also agree well with maximum likelihood estimates. Conclusion: A robust method of performing Bayesian inference of TCP data using a complex TCP model has been established.« less

An attachment-based description of the medial collateral and spring ligament complexes.

PubMed

Cromeens, Barrett P; Kirchhoff, Claire A; Patterson, Rita M; Motley, Travis; Stewart, Donald; Fisher, Cara; Reeves, Rustin E

2015-06-01

Anatomy of the medial collateral and spring ligament complexes has been the cause of confusion. The anatomic description is highly dependent on the source studied and little agreement exists between texts. In addition, inconsistent nomenclature has been used to describe the components. This study attempted to clarify confusion through the creation of a 3D ligament map using attachment-based dissection. Nine fresh foot and ankle specimens were observed. The medial collateral ligament and spring ligament complexes were dissected using their attachment sites as a guide to define individual components. Each component's perimeter and thickness was measured and each bony attachment was mapped using a microscribe 3D digitizer. Five components were identified contributing to the ligament complexes of interest: the tibiocalcaneonavicular, superficial posterior tibiotalar, deep posterior tibiotalar, deep anterior tibiotalar, and inferoplantar longitudinal ligaments. The largest component by total attachment area was the tibiocalcaneonavicular ligament followed by the deep posterior tibiotalar ligament. The largest ligament surface area of attachment to the tibia and talus was the deep posterior tibiotalar ligament. The largest attachment to the navicular and calcaneus was the tibiocalcaneonavicular ligament, which appeared to function in holding these bones in proximity while supporting the head of the talus. By defining complex components by their attachment sites, a novel, more functional and reproducible description of the medial collateral and spring ligament complexes was created. The linear measurements and 3D maps may prove useful when attempting more anatomically accurate reconstructions. © The Author(s) 2015.

Elastic K-means using posterior probability.

PubMed

Zheng, Aihua; Jiang, Bo; Li, Yan; Zhang, Xuehan; Ding, Chris

2017-01-01

The widely used K-means clustering is a hard clustering algorithm. Here we propose a Elastic K-means clustering model (EKM) using posterior probability with soft capability where each data point can belong to multiple clusters fractionally and show the benefit of proposed Elastic K-means. Furthermore, in many applications, besides vector attributes information, pairwise relations (graph information) are also available. Thus we integrate EKM with Normalized Cut graph clustering into a single clustering formulation. Finally, we provide several useful matrix inequalities which are useful for matrix formulations of learning models. Based on these results, we prove the correctness and the convergence of EKM algorithms. Experimental results on six benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed EKM and its integrated model.

Use of Bayesian Inference in Crystallographic Structure Refinement via Full Diffraction Profile Analysis

PubMed Central

Fancher, Chris M.; Han, Zhen; Levin, Igor; Page, Katharine; Reich, Brian J.; Smith, Ralph C.; Wilson, Alyson G.; Jones, Jacob L.

2016-01-01

A Bayesian inference method for refining crystallographic structures is presented. The distribution of model parameters is stochastically sampled using Markov chain Monte Carlo. Posterior probability distributions are constructed for all model parameters to properly quantify uncertainty by appropriately modeling the heteroskedasticity and correlation of the error structure. The proposed method is demonstrated by analyzing a National Institute of Standards and Technology silicon standard reference material. The results obtained by Bayesian inference are compared with those determined by Rietveld refinement. Posterior probability distributions of model parameters provide both estimates and uncertainties. The new method better estimates the true uncertainties in the model as compared to the Rietveld method. PMID:27550221

Lateral Asymmetry and Spatial Difference of Iron Deposition in the Substantia Nigra of Patients with Parkinson Disease Measured with Quantitative Susceptibility Mapping.

PubMed

Azuma, M; Hirai, T; Yamada, K; Yamashita, S; Ando, Y; Tateishi, M; Iryo, Y; Yoneda, T; Kitajima, M; Wang, Y; Yamashita, Y

2016-05-01

Quantitative susceptibility mapping is useful for assessing iron deposition in the substantia nigra of patients with Parkinson disease. We aimed to determine whether quantitative susceptibility mapping is useful for assessing the lateral asymmetry and spatial difference in iron deposits in the substantia nigra of patients with Parkinson disease. Our study population comprised 24 patients with Parkinson disease and 24 age- and sex-matched healthy controls. They underwent 3T MR imaging by using a 3D multiecho gradient-echo sequence. On reconstructed quantitative susceptibility mapping, we measured the susceptibility values in the anterior, middle, and posterior parts of the substantia nigra, the whole substantia nigra, and other deep gray matter structures in both hemibrains. To identify the more and less affected hemibrains in patients with Parkinson disease, we assessed the severity of movement symptoms for each hemibrain by using the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale. In the posterior substantia nigra of patients with Parkinson disease, the mean susceptibility value was significantly higher in the more than the less affected hemibrain substantia nigra (P < .05). This value was significantly higher in both the more and less affected hemibrains of patients with Parkinson disease than in controls (P < .05). Asymmetry of the mean susceptibility values was significantly greater for patients than controls (P < .05). Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that quantitative susceptibility mapping of the posterior substantia nigra in the more affected hemibrain provided the highest power for discriminating patients with Parkinson disease from the controls. Quantitative susceptibility mapping is useful for assessing the lateral asymmetry and spatial difference of iron deposition in the substantia nigra of patients with Parkinson disease. © 2016 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

Bayesian Mapping Reveals That Attention Boosts Neural Responses to Predicted and Unpredicted Stimuli.

PubMed

Garrido, Marta I; Rowe, Elise G; Halász, Veronika; Mattingley, Jason B

2018-05-01

Predictive coding posits that the human brain continually monitors the environment for regularities and detects inconsistencies. It is unclear, however, what effect attention has on expectation processes, as there have been relatively few studies and the results of these have yielded contradictory findings. Here, we employed Bayesian model comparison to adjudicate between 2 alternative computational models. The "Opposition" model states that attention boosts neural responses equally to predicted and unpredicted stimuli, whereas the "Interaction" model assumes that attentional boosting of neural signals depends on the level of predictability. We designed a novel, audiospatial attention task that orthogonally manipulated attention and prediction by playing oddball sequences in either the attended or unattended ear. We observed sensory prediction error responses, with electroencephalography, across all attentional manipulations. Crucially, posterior probability maps revealed that, overall, the Opposition model better explained scalp and source data, suggesting that attention boosts responses to predicted and unpredicted stimuli equally. Furthermore, Dynamic Causal Modeling showed that these Opposition effects were expressed in plastic changes within the mismatch negativity network. Our findings provide empirical evidence for a computational model of the opposing interplay of attention and expectation in the brain.

Simple summation rule for optimal fixation selection in visual search.

PubMed

Najemnik, Jiri; Geisler, Wilson S

2009-06-01

When searching for a known target in a natural texture, practiced humans achieve near-optimal performance compared to a Bayesian ideal searcher constrained with the human map of target detectability across the visual field [Najemnik, J., & Geisler, W. S. (2005). Optimal eye movement strategies in visual search. Nature, 434, 387-391]. To do so, humans must be good at choosing where to fixate during the search [Najemnik, J., & Geisler, W.S. (2008). Eye movement statistics in humans are consistent with an optimal strategy. Journal of Vision, 8(3), 1-14. 4]; however, it seems unlikely that a biological nervous system would implement the computations for the Bayesian ideal fixation selection because of their complexity. Here we derive and test a simple heuristic for optimal fixation selection that appears to be a much better candidate for implementation within a biological nervous system. Specifically, we show that the near-optimal fixation location is the maximum of the current posterior probability distribution for target location after the distribution is filtered by (convolved with) the square of the retinotopic target detectability map. We term the model that uses this strategy the entropy limit minimization (ELM) searcher. We show that when constrained with human-like retinotopic map of target detectability and human search error rates, the ELM searcher performs as well as the Bayesian ideal searcher, and produces fixation statistics similar to human.

Insights into bird wing evolution and digit specification from polarizing region fate maps.

PubMed

Towers, Matthew; Signolet, Jason; Sherman, Adrian; Sang, Helen; Tickle, Cheryll

2011-08-09

The proposal that birds descended from theropod dinosaurs with digits 2, 3 and 4 was recently given support by short-term fate maps, suggesting that the chick wing polarizing region-a group that Sonic hedgehog-expressing cells-gives rise to digit 4. Here we show using long-term fate maps that Green fluorescent protein-expressing chick wing polarizing region grafts contribute only to soft tissues along the posterior margin of digit 4, supporting fossil data that birds descended from theropods that had digits 1, 2 and 3. In contrast, digit IV of the chick leg with four digits (I-IV) arises from the polarizing region. To determine how digit identity is specified over time, we inhibited Sonic hedgehog signalling. Fate maps show that polarizing region and adjacent cells are specified in parallel through a series of anterior to posterior digit fates-a process of digit specification that we suggest is involved in patterning all vertebrate limbs with more than three digits.

On the use of Bayesian Monte-Carlo in evaluation of nuclear data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

De Saint Jean, Cyrille; Archier, Pascal; Privas, Edwin; Noguere, Gilles

2017-09-01

As model parameters, necessary ingredients of theoretical models, are not always predicted by theory, a formal mathematical framework associated to the evaluation work is needed to obtain the best set of parameters (resonance parameters, optical models, fission barrier, average width, multigroup cross sections) with Bayesian statistical inference by comparing theory to experiment. The formal rule related to this methodology is to estimate the posterior density probability function of a set of parameters by solving an equation of the following type: pdf(posterior) ˜ pdf(prior) × a likelihood function. A fitting procedure can be seen as an estimation of the posterior density probability of a set of parameters (referred as x→?) knowing a prior information on these parameters and a likelihood which gives the probability density function of observing a data set knowing x→?. To solve this problem, two major paths could be taken: add approximations and hypothesis and obtain an equation to be solved numerically (minimum of a cost function or Generalized least Square method, referred as GLS) or use Monte-Carlo sampling of all prior distributions and estimate the final posterior distribution. Monte Carlo methods are natural solution for Bayesian inference problems. They avoid approximations (existing in traditional adjustment procedure based on chi-square minimization) and propose alternative in the choice of probability density distribution for priors and likelihoods. This paper will propose the use of what we are calling Bayesian Monte Carlo (referred as BMC in the rest of the manuscript) in the whole energy range from thermal, resonance and continuum range for all nuclear reaction models at these energies. Algorithms will be presented based on Monte-Carlo sampling and Markov chain. The objectives of BMC are to propose a reference calculation for validating the GLS calculations and approximations, to test probability density distributions effects and to provide the framework of finding global minimum if several local minimums exist. Application to resolved resonance, unresolved resonance and continuum evaluation as well as multigroup cross section data assimilation will be presented.

MAP Estimators for Piecewise Continuous Inversion

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-08-08

MAP estimators for piecewise continuous inversion M M Dunlop1 and A M Stuart Mathematics Institute, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, UK E...Published 8 August 2016 Abstract We study the inverse problem of estimating a field ua from data comprising a finite set of nonlinear functionals of ua...then natural to study maximum a posterior (MAP) estimators. Recently (Dashti et al 2013 Inverse Problems 29 095017) it has been shown that MAP

Bayesian statistical inference enhances the interpretation of contemporary randomized controlled trials.

PubMed

Wijeysundera, Duminda N; Austin, Peter C; Hux, Janet E; Beattie, W Scott; Laupacis, Andreas

2009-01-01

Randomized trials generally use "frequentist" statistics based on P-values and 95% confidence intervals. Frequentist methods have limitations that might be overcome, in part, by Bayesian inference. To illustrate these advantages, we re-analyzed randomized trials published in four general medical journals during 2004. We used Medline to identify randomized superiority trials with two parallel arms, individual-level randomization and dichotomous or time-to-event primary outcomes. Studies with P<0.05 in favor of the intervention were deemed "positive"; otherwise, they were "negative." We used several prior distributions and exact conjugate analyses to calculate Bayesian posterior probabilities for clinically relevant effects. Of 88 included studies, 39 were positive using a frequentist analysis. Although the Bayesian posterior probabilities of any benefit (relative risk or hazard ratio<1) were high in positive studies, these probabilities were lower and variable for larger benefits. The positive studies had only moderate probabilities for exceeding the effects that were assumed for calculating the sample size. By comparison, there were moderate probabilities of any benefit in negative studies. Bayesian and frequentist analyses complement each other when interpreting the results of randomized trials. Future reports of randomized trials should include both.

Assessment of accident severity in the construction industry using the Bayesian theorem.

PubMed

Alizadeh, Seyed Shamseddin; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Mehdi Sepehri, Mohammad

2015-01-01

Construction is a major source of employment in many countries. In construction, workers perform a great diversity of activities, each one with a specific associated risk. The aim of this paper is to identify workers who are at risk of accidents with severe consequences and classify these workers to determine appropriate control measures. We defined 48 groups of workers and used the Bayesian theorem to estimate posterior probabilities about the severity of accidents at the level of individuals in construction sector. First, the posterior probabilities of injuries based on four variables were provided. Then the probabilities of injury for 48 groups of workers were determined. With regard to marginal frequency of injury, slight injury (0.856), fatal injury (0.086) and severe injury (0.058) had the highest probability of occurrence. It was observed that workers with <1 year's work experience (0.168) had the highest probability of injury occurrence. The first group of workers, who were extensively exposed to risk of severe and fatal accidents, involved workers ≥ 50 years old, married, with 1-5 years' work experience, who had no past accident experience. The findings provide a direction for more effective safety strategies and occupational accident prevention and emergency programmes.

Detection of mastitis in dairy cattle by use of mixture models for repeated somatic cell scores: a Bayesian approach via Gibbs sampling.

PubMed

Odegård, J; Jensen, J; Madsen, P; Gianola, D; Klemetsdal, G; Heringstad, B

2003-11-01

The distribution of somatic cell scores could be regarded as a mixture of at least two components depending on a cow's udder health status. A heteroscedastic two-component Bayesian normal mixture model with random effects was developed and implemented via Gibbs sampling. The model was evaluated using datasets consisting of simulated somatic cell score records. Somatic cell score was simulated as a mixture representing two alternative udder health statuses ("healthy" or "diseased"). Animals were assigned randomly to the two components according to the probability of group membership (Pm). Random effects (additive genetic and permanent environment), when included, had identical distributions across mixture components. Posterior probabilities of putative mastitis were estimated for all observations, and model adequacy was evaluated using measures of sensitivity, specificity, and posterior probability of misclassification. Fitting different residual variances in the two mixture components caused some bias in estimation of parameters. When the components were difficult to disentangle, so were their residual variances, causing bias in estimation of Pm and of location parameters of the two underlying distributions. When all variance components were identical across mixture components, the mixture model analyses returned parameter estimates essentially without bias and with a high degree of precision. Including random effects in the model increased the probability of correct classification substantially. No sizable differences in probability of correct classification were found between models in which a single cow effect (ignoring relationships) was fitted and models where this effect was split into genetic and permanent environmental components, utilizing relationship information. When genetic and permanent environmental effects were fitted, the between-replicate variance of estimates of posterior means was smaller because the model accounted for random genetic drift.

On the use of posterior predictive probabilities and prediction uncertainty to tailor informative sampling for parasitological surveillance in livestock.

PubMed

Musella, Vincenzo; Rinaldi, Laura; Lagazio, Corrado; Cringoli, Giuseppe; Biggeri, Annibale; Catelan, Dolores

2014-09-15

Model-based geostatistics and Bayesian approaches are appropriate in the context of Veterinary Epidemiology when point data have been collected by valid study designs. The aim is to predict a continuous infection risk surface. Little work has been done on the use of predictive infection probabilities at farm unit level. In this paper we show how to use predictive infection probability and related uncertainty from a Bayesian kriging model to draw a informative samples from the 8794 geo-referenced sheep farms of the Campania region (southern Italy). Parasitological data come from a first cross-sectional survey carried out to study the spatial distribution of selected helminths in sheep farms. A grid sampling was performed to select the farms for coprological examinations. Faecal samples were collected for 121 sheep farms and the presence of 21 different helminths were investigated using the FLOTAC technique. The 21 responses are very different in terms of geographical distribution and prevalence of infection. The observed prevalence range is from 0.83% to 96.69%. The distributions of the posterior predictive probabilities for all the 21 parasites are very heterogeneous. We show how the results of the Bayesian kriging model can be used to plan a second wave survey. Several alternatives can be chosen depending on the purposes of the second survey: weight by posterior predictive probabilities, their uncertainty or combining both information. The proposed Bayesian kriging model is simple, and the proposed samping strategy represents a useful tool to address targeted infection control treatments and surbveillance campaigns. It is easily extendable to other fields of research. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Compositional cokriging for mapping the probability risk of groundwater contamination by nitrates.

PubMed

Pardo-Igúzquiza, Eulogio; Chica-Olmo, Mario; Luque-Espinar, Juan A; Rodríguez-Galiano, Víctor

2015-11-01

Contamination by nitrates is an important cause of groundwater pollution and represents a potential risk to human health. Management decisions must be made using probability maps that assess the nitrate concentration potential of exceeding regulatory thresholds. However these maps are obtained with only a small number of sparse monitoring locations where the nitrate concentrations have been measured. It is therefore of great interest to have an efficient methodology for obtaining those probability maps. In this paper, we make use of the fact that the discrete probability density function is a compositional variable. The spatial discrete probability density function is estimated by compositional cokriging. There are several advantages in using this approach: (i) problems of classical indicator cokriging, like estimates outside the interval (0,1) and order relations, are avoided; (ii) secondary variables (e.g. aquifer parameters) can be included in the estimation of the probability maps; (iii) uncertainty maps of the probability maps can be obtained; (iv) finally there are modelling advantages because the variograms and cross-variograms of real variables that do not have the restrictions of indicator variograms and indicator cross-variograms. The methodology was applied to the Vega de Granada aquifer in Southern Spain and the advantages of the compositional cokriging approach were demonstrated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phylogenetic relationships of Malaysia’s long-tailed macaques, Macaca fascicularis, based on cytochrome b sequences

PubMed Central

Abdul-Latiff, Muhammad Abu Bakar; Ruslin, Farhani; Fui, Vun Vui; Abu, Mohd-Hashim; Rovie-Ryan, Jeffrine Japning; Abdul-Patah, Pazil; Lakim, Maklarin; Roos, Christian; Yaakop, Salmah; Md-Zain, Badrul Munir

2014-01-01

Abstract Phylogenetic relationships among Malaysia’s long-tailed macaques have yet to be established, despite abundant genetic studies of the species worldwide. The aims of this study are to examine the phylogenetic relationships of Macaca fascicularis in Malaysia and to test its classification as a morphological subspecies. A total of 25 genetic samples of M. fascicularis yielding 383 bp of Cytochrome b (Cyt b) sequences were used in phylogenetic analysis along with one sample each of M. nemestrina and M. arctoides used as outgroups. Sequence character analysis reveals that Cyt b locus is a highly conserved region with only 23% parsimony informative character detected among ingroups. Further analysis indicates a clear separation between populations originating from different regions; the Malay Peninsula versus Borneo Insular, the East Coast versus West Coast of the Malay Peninsula, and the island versus mainland Malay Peninsula populations. Phylogenetic trees (NJ, MP and Bayesian) portray a consistent clustering paradigm as Borneo’s population was distinguished from Peninsula’s population (99% and 100% bootstrap value in NJ and MP respectively and 1.00 posterior probability in Bayesian trees). The East coast population was separated from other Peninsula populations (64% in NJ, 66% in MP and 0.53 posterior probability in Bayesian). West coast populations were divided into 2 clades: the North-South (47%/54% in NJ, 26/26% in MP and 1.00/0.80 posterior probability in Bayesian) and Island-Mainland (93% in NJ, 90% in MP and 1.00 posterior probability in Bayesian). The results confirm the previous morphological assignment of 2 subspecies, M. f. fascicularis and M. f. argentimembris, in the Malay Peninsula. These populations should be treated as separate genetic entities in order to conserve the genetic diversity of Malaysia’s M. fascicularis. These findings are crucial in aiding the conservation management and translocation process of M. fascicularis populations in Malaysia. PMID:24899832

Phylogenetic relationships of Malaysia's long-tailed macaques, Macaca fascicularis, based on cytochrome b sequences.

PubMed

Abdul-Latiff, Muhammad Abu Bakar; Ruslin, Farhani; Fui, Vun Vui; Abu, Mohd-Hashim; Rovie-Ryan, Jeffrine Japning; Abdul-Patah, Pazil; Lakim, Maklarin; Roos, Christian; Yaakop, Salmah; Md-Zain, Badrul Munir

2014-01-01

Phylogenetic relationships among Malaysia's long-tailed macaques have yet to be established, despite abundant genetic studies of the species worldwide. The aims of this study are to examine the phylogenetic relationships of Macaca fascicularis in Malaysia and to test its classification as a morphological subspecies. A total of 25 genetic samples of M. fascicularis yielding 383 bp of Cytochrome b (Cyt b) sequences were used in phylogenetic analysis along with one sample each of M. nemestrina and M. arctoides used as outgroups. Sequence character analysis reveals that Cyt b locus is a highly conserved region with only 23% parsimony informative character detected among ingroups. Further analysis indicates a clear separation between populations originating from different regions; the Malay Peninsula versus Borneo Insular, the East Coast versus West Coast of the Malay Peninsula, and the island versus mainland Malay Peninsula populations. Phylogenetic trees (NJ, MP and Bayesian) portray a consistent clustering paradigm as Borneo's population was distinguished from Peninsula's population (99% and 100% bootstrap value in NJ and MP respectively and 1.00 posterior probability in Bayesian trees). The East coast population was separated from other Peninsula populations (64% in NJ, 66% in MP and 0.53 posterior probability in Bayesian). West coast populations were divided into 2 clades: the North-South (47%/54% in NJ, 26/26% in MP and 1.00/0.80 posterior probability in Bayesian) and Island-Mainland (93% in NJ, 90% in MP and 1.00 posterior probability in Bayesian). The results confirm the previous morphological assignment of 2 subspecies, M. f. fascicularis and M. f. argentimembris, in the Malay Peninsula. These populations should be treated as separate genetic entities in order to conserve the genetic diversity of Malaysia's M. fascicularis. These findings are crucial in aiding the conservation management and translocation process of M. fascicularis populations in Malaysia.

A Bayesian Method for Evaluating and Discovering Disease Loci Associations

PubMed Central

Jiang, Xia; Barmada, M. Michael; Cooper, Gregory F.; Becich, Michael J.

2011-01-01

Background A genome-wide association study (GWAS) typically involves examining representative SNPs in individuals from some population. A GWAS data set can concern a million SNPs and may soon concern billions. Researchers investigate the association of each SNP individually with a disease, and it is becoming increasingly commonplace to also analyze multi-SNP associations. Techniques for handling so many hypotheses include the Bonferroni correction and recently developed Bayesian methods. These methods can encounter problems. Most importantly, they are not applicable to a complex multi-locus hypothesis which has several competing hypotheses rather than only a null hypothesis. A method that computes the posterior probability of complex hypotheses is a pressing need. Methodology/Findings We introduce the Bayesian network posterior probability (BNPP) method which addresses the difficulties. The method represents the relationship between a disease and SNPs using a directed acyclic graph (DAG) model, and computes the likelihood of such models using a Bayesian network scoring criterion. The posterior probability of a hypothesis is computed based on the likelihoods of all competing hypotheses. The BNPP can not only be used to evaluate a hypothesis that has previously been discovered or suspected, but also to discover new disease loci associations. The results of experiments using simulated and real data sets are presented. Our results concerning simulated data sets indicate that the BNPP exhibits both better evaluation and discovery performance than does a p-value based method. For the real data sets, previous findings in the literature are confirmed and additional findings are found. Conclusions/Significance We conclude that the BNPP resolves a pressing problem by providing a way to compute the posterior probability of complex multi-locus hypotheses. A researcher can use the BNPP to determine the expected utility of investigating a hypothesis further. Furthermore, we conclude that the BNPP is a promising method for discovering disease loci associations. PMID:21853025

Understanding seasonal variability of uncertainty in hydrological prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, M.; Wang, Q. J.

2012-04-01

Understanding uncertainty in hydrological prediction can be highly valuable for improving the reliability of streamflow prediction. In this study, a monthly water balance model, WAPABA, in a Bayesian joint probability with error models are presented to investigate the seasonal dependency of prediction error structure. A seasonal invariant error model, analogous to traditional time series analysis, uses constant parameters for model error and account for no seasonal variations. In contrast, a seasonal variant error model uses a different set of parameters for bias, variance and autocorrelation for each individual calendar month. Potential connection amongst model parameters from similar months is not considered within the seasonal variant model and could result in over-fitting and over-parameterization. A hierarchical error model further applies some distributional restrictions on model parameters within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. An iterative algorithm is implemented to expedite the maximum a posterior (MAP) estimation of a hierarchical error model. Three error models are applied to forecasting streamflow at a catchment in southeast Australia in a cross-validation analysis. This study also presents a number of statistical measures and graphical tools to compare the predictive skills of different error models. From probability integral transform histograms and other diagnostic graphs, the hierarchical error model conforms better to reliability when compared to the seasonal invariant error model. The hierarchical error model also generally provides the most accurate mean prediction in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient and the best probabilistic prediction in terms of the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS). The model parameters of the seasonal variant error model are very sensitive to each cross validation, while the hierarchical error model produces much more robust and reliable model parameters. Furthermore, the result of the hierarchical error model shows that most of model parameters are not seasonal variant except for error bias. The seasonal variant error model is likely to use more parameters than necessary to maximize the posterior likelihood. The model flexibility and robustness indicates that the hierarchical error model has great potential for future streamflow predictions.

Supernova Cosmology Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts (SCIPPR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peters, Christina; Malz, Alex; Hlozek, Renée

2018-01-01

The Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species (BEAMS) framework employs probabilistic supernova type classifications to do photometric SN cosmology. This work extends BEAMS to replace high-confidence spectroscopic redshifts with photometric redshift probability density functions, a capability that will be essential in the era the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope and other next-generation photometric surveys where it will not be possible to perform spectroscopic follow up on every SN. We present the Supernova Cosmology Inference with Probabilistic Photometric Redshifts (SCIPPR) Bayesian hierarchical model for constraining the cosmological parameters from photometric lightcurves and host galaxy photometry, which includes selection effects and is extensible to uncertainty in the redshift-dependent supernova type proportions. We create a pair of realistic mock catalogs of joint posteriors over supernova type, redshift, and distance modulus informed by photometric supernova lightcurves and over redshift from simulated host galaxy photometry. We perform inference under our model to obtain a joint posterior probability distribution over the cosmological parameters and compare our results with other methods, namely: a spectroscopic subset, a subset of high probability photometrically classified supernovae, and reducing the photometric redshift probability to a single measurement and error bar.

Assessing Goodness of Fit in Item Response Theory with Nonparametric Models: A Comparison of Posterior Probabilities and Kernel-Smoothing Approaches

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sueiro, Manuel J.; Abad, Francisco J.

2011-01-01

The distance between nonparametric and parametric item characteristic curves has been proposed as an index of goodness of fit in item response theory in the form of a root integrated squared error index. This article proposes to use the posterior distribution of the latent trait as the nonparametric model and compares the performance of an index…

Nested Sampling for Bayesian Model Comparison in the Context of Salmonella Disease Dynamics

PubMed Central

Dybowski, Richard; McKinley, Trevelyan J.; Mastroeni, Pietro; Restif, Olivier

2013-01-01

Understanding the mechanisms underlying the observed dynamics of complex biological systems requires the statistical assessment and comparison of multiple alternative models. Although this has traditionally been done using maximum likelihood-based methods such as Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian methods have gained in popularity because they provide more informative output in the form of posterior probability distributions. However, comparison between multiple models in a Bayesian framework is made difficult by the computational cost of numerical integration over large parameter spaces. A new, efficient method for the computation of posterior probabilities has recently been proposed and applied to complex problems from the physical sciences. Here we demonstrate how nested sampling can be used for inference and model comparison in biological sciences. We present a reanalysis of data from experimental infection of mice with Salmonella enterica showing the distribution of bacteria in liver cells. In addition to confirming the main finding of the original analysis, which relied on AIC, our approach provides: (a) integration across the parameter space, (b) estimation of the posterior parameter distributions (with visualisations of parameter correlations), and (c) estimation of the posterior predictive distributions for goodness-of-fit assessments of the models. The goodness-of-fit results suggest that alternative mechanistic models and a relaxation of the quasi-stationary assumption should be considered. PMID:24376528

Bayesian inference of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics from aeroelastic limit cycle oscillations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sandhu, Rimple; Poirel, Dominique; Pettit, Chris; Khalil, Mohammad; Sarkar, Abhijit

2016-07-01

A Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation algorithm is applied to investigate the influence of nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamic loads on the limit cycle oscillation (LCO) of a pitching airfoil in the transitional Reynolds number regime. At small angles of attack, laminar boundary layer trailing edge separation causes negative aerodynamic damping leading to the LCO. The fluid-structure interaction of the rigid, but elastically mounted, airfoil and nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics is represented by two coupled nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equations containing uncertain parameters and model approximation errors. Several plausible aerodynamic models with increasing complexity are proposed to describe the aeroelastic system leading to LCO. The likelihood in the posterior parameter probability density function (pdf) is available semi-analytically using the extended Kalman filter for the state estimation of the coupled nonlinear structural and unsteady aerodynamic model. The posterior parameter pdf is sampled using a parallel and adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior probability of each model is estimated using the Chib-Jeliazkov method that directly uses the posterior MCMC samples for evidence (marginal likelihood) computation. The Bayesian algorithm is validated through a numerical study and then applied to model the nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic loads using wind-tunnel test data at various Reynolds numbers.

Bayesian inference of nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics from aeroelastic limit cycle oscillations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sandhu, Rimple; Poirel, Dominique; Pettit, Chris

2016-07-01

A Bayesian model selection and parameter estimation algorithm is applied to investigate the influence of nonlinear and unsteady aerodynamic loads on the limit cycle oscillation (LCO) of a pitching airfoil in the transitional Reynolds number regime. At small angles of attack, laminar boundary layer trailing edge separation causes negative aerodynamic damping leading to the LCO. The fluid–structure interaction of the rigid, but elastically mounted, airfoil and nonlinear unsteady aerodynamics is represented by two coupled nonlinear stochastic ordinary differential equations containing uncertain parameters and model approximation errors. Several plausible aerodynamic models with increasing complexity are proposed to describe the aeroelastic systemmore » leading to LCO. The likelihood in the posterior parameter probability density function (pdf) is available semi-analytically using the extended Kalman filter for the state estimation of the coupled nonlinear structural and unsteady aerodynamic model. The posterior parameter pdf is sampled using a parallel and adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The posterior probability of each model is estimated using the Chib–Jeliazkov method that directly uses the posterior MCMC samples for evidence (marginal likelihood) computation. The Bayesian algorithm is validated through a numerical study and then applied to model the nonlinear unsteady aerodynamic loads using wind-tunnel test data at various Reynolds numbers.« less

A Bayesian approach to tracking patients having changing pharmacokinetic parameters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bayard, David S.; Jelliffe, Roger W.

2004-01-01

This paper considers the updating of Bayesian posterior densities for pharmacokinetic models associated with patients having changing parameter values. For estimation purposes it is proposed to use the Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) estimation algorithm, which is currently a popular algorithm in the aerospace community for tracking maneuvering targets. The IMM algorithm is described, and compared to the multiple model (MM) and Maximum A-Posteriori (MAP) Bayesian estimation methods, which are presently used for posterior updating when pharmacokinetic parameters do not change. Both the MM and MAP Bayesian estimation methods are used in their sequential forms, to facilitate tracking of changing parameters. Results indicate that the IMM algorithm is well suited for tracking time-varying pharmacokinetic parameters in acutely ill and unstable patients, incurring only about half of the integrated error compared to the sequential MM and MAP methods on the same example.

Development and implementation of a Bayesian-based aquifer vulnerability assessment in Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arthur, J.D.; Wood, H.A.R.; Baker, A.E.; Cichon, J.R.; Raines, G.L.

2007-01-01

The Florida Aquifer Vulnerability Assessment (FAVA) was designed to provide a tool for environmental, regulatory, resource management, and planning professionals to facilitate protection of groundwater resources from surface sources of contamination. The FAVA project implements weights-of-evidence (WofE), a data-driven, Bayesian-probabilistic model to generate a series of maps reflecting relative aquifer vulnerability of Florida's principal aquifer systems. The vulnerability assessment process, from project design to map implementation is described herein in reference to the Floridan aquifer system (FAS). The WofE model calculates weighted relationships between hydrogeologic data layers that influence aquifer vulnerability and ambient groundwater parameters in wells that reflect relative degrees of vulnerability. Statewide model input data layers (evidential themes) include soil hydraulic conductivity, density of karst features, thickness of aquifer confinement, and hydraulic head difference between the FAS and the watertable. Wells with median dissolved nitrogen concentrations exceeding statistically established thresholds serve as training points in the WofE model. The resulting vulnerability map (response theme) reflects classified posterior probabilities based on spatial relationships between the evidential themes and training points. The response theme is subjected to extensive sensitivity and validation testing. Among the model validation techniques is calculation of a response theme based on a different water-quality indicator of relative recharge or vulnerability: dissolved oxygen. Successful implementation of the FAVA maps was facilitated by the overall project design, which included a needs assessment and iterative technical advisory committee input and review. Ongoing programs to protect Florida's springsheds have led to development of larger-scale WofE-based vulnerability assessments. Additional applications of the maps include land-use planning amendments and prioritization of land purchases to protect groundwater resources. ?? International Association for Mathematical Geology 2007.

Elastic K-means using posterior probability

PubMed Central

Zheng, Aihua; Jiang, Bo; Li, Yan; Zhang, Xuehan; Ding, Chris

2017-01-01

The widely used K-means clustering is a hard clustering algorithm. Here we propose a Elastic K-means clustering model (EKM) using posterior probability with soft capability where each data point can belong to multiple clusters fractionally and show the benefit of proposed Elastic K-means. Furthermore, in many applications, besides vector attributes information, pairwise relations (graph information) are also available. Thus we integrate EKM with Normalized Cut graph clustering into a single clustering formulation. Finally, we provide several useful matrix inequalities which are useful for matrix formulations of learning models. Based on these results, we prove the correctness and the convergence of EKM algorithms. Experimental results on six benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of proposed EKM and its integrated model. PMID:29240756

The efficacy and hemodynamic response to Dexmedetomidine as a hypotensive agent in posterior fixation surgery following traumatic spine injury

PubMed Central

Jamaliya, Ramila H; Chinnachamy, Rajesh; Maliwad, Jyotsna; Deshmukh, Varun P; Shah, Bharat J; Chadha, Indu A

2014-01-01

Aim: This study was designed to evaluate the efficacy of dexmedetomidine (DEX) as a hypotensive agent in comparison to nitroglycerin (NTG) in posterior fixation surgery for traumatic spine injury. Materials and Methods: Forty patients ASA I or II aged 18-65 years scheduled for posterior fixation surgery were randomly assigned to receive either DEX 1 μg/kg over 10 min before induction of anesthesia followed by 0.2-0.7 μg/kg/h infusion during maintenance in DEX group or NTG 3-5 μg/kg/min infusion after induction of anesthesia in NTG group to maintain mean arterial blood pressure (MAP) between 65 and 70 mmHg. The two groups were compared for achievement of target MAP, intraoperative blood loss, and reversibility of hypotensive state. Student's t-test was used for continuous variables and chi-square test for categorical variables. P-value < 0.05 was considered significant. Results: Patients in DEX group achieved the target MAP with better heart rate (HR) control, as compared to NTG group during the period of observation. The blood loss was significantly lesser in the DEX group (422.11 ± 149.34 ml) than the NTG group (564.51 ± 160.88 ml), P = 0.01. The time to hypotension reversal in NTG group (5.63 ± 1.93 min) was lesser compared to DEX group (9.15 ± 2.16 min), P = 0.65. Conclusion: DEX is an effective and safe agent in achieving controlled hypotension in adults undergoing posterior fixation spine surgery. PMID:24803758

Planning spatial sampling of the soil from an uncertain reconnaissance variogram

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lark, R. Murray; Hamilton, Elliott M.; Kaninga, Belinda; Maseka, Kakoma K.; Mutondo, Moola; Sakala, Godfrey M.; Watts, Michael J.

2017-12-01

An estimated variogram of a soil property can be used to support a rational choice of sampling intensity for geostatistical mapping. However, it is known that estimated variograms are subject to uncertainty. In this paper we address two practical questions. First, how can we make a robust decision on sampling intensity, given the uncertainty in the variogram? Second, what are the costs incurred in terms of oversampling because of uncertainty in the variogram model used to plan sampling? To achieve this we show how samples of the posterior distribution of variogram parameters, from a computational Bayesian analysis, can be used to characterize the effects of variogram parameter uncertainty on sampling decisions. We show how one can select a sample intensity so that a target value of the kriging variance is not exceeded with some specified probability. This will lead to oversampling, relative to the sampling intensity that would be specified if there were no uncertainty in the variogram parameters. One can estimate the magnitude of this oversampling by treating the tolerable grid spacing for the final sample as a random variable, given the target kriging variance and the posterior sample values. We illustrate these concepts with some data on total uranium content in a relatively sparse sample of soil from agricultural land near mine tailings in the Copperbelt Province of Zambia.

Spatial and temporal patterns of chronic wasting disease: Fine-scale mapping of a wildlife epidemic in Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Osnas, E.E.; Heisey, D.M.; Rolley, R.E.; Samuel, M.D.

2009-01-01

Emerging infectious diseases threaten wildlife populations and human health. Understanding the spatial distributions of these new diseases is important for disease management and policy makers; however, the data are complicated by heterogeneities across host classes, sampling variance, sampling biases, and the space-time epidemic process. Ignoring these issues can lead to false conclusions or obscure important patterns in the data, such as spatial variation in disease prevalence. Here, we applied hierarchical Bayesian disease mapping methods to account for risk factors and to estimate spatial and temporal patterns of infection by chronic wasting disease (CWD) in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) of Wisconsin, USA. We found significant heterogeneities for infection due to age, sex, and spatial location. Infection probability increased with age for all young deer, increased with age faster for young males, and then declined for some older animals, as expected from disease-associated mortality and age-related changes in infection risk. We found that disease prevalence was clustered in a central location, as expected under a simple spatial epidemic process where disease prevalence should increase with time and expand spatially. However, we could not detect any consistent temporal or spatiotemporal trends in CWD prevalence. Estimates of the temporal trend indicated that prevalence may have decreased or increased with nearly equal posterior probability, and the model without temporal or spatiotemporal effects was nearly equivalent to models with these effects based on deviance information criteria. For maximum interpretability of the role of location as a disease risk factor, we used the technique of direct standardization for prevalence mapping, which we develop and describe. These mapping results allow disease management actions to be employed with reference to the estimated spatial distribution of the disease and to those host classes most at risk. Future wildlife epidemiology studies should employ hierarchical Bayesian methods to smooth estimated quantities across space and time, account for heterogeneities, and then report disease rates based on an appropriate standardization. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Large Scale Crop Classification in Ukraine using Multi-temporal Landsat-8 Images with Missing Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kussul, N.; Skakun, S.; Shelestov, A.; Lavreniuk, M. S.

2014-12-01

At present, there are no globally available Earth observation (EO) derived products on crop maps. This issue is being addressed within the Sentinel-2 for Agriculture initiative where a number of test sites (including from JECAM) participate to provide coherent protocols and best practices for various global agriculture systems, and subsequently crop maps from Sentinel-2. One of the problems in dealing with optical images for large territories (more than 10,000 sq. km) is the presence of clouds and shadows that result in having missing values in data sets. In this abstract, a new approach to classification of multi-temporal optical satellite imagery with missing data due to clouds and shadows is proposed. First, self-organizing Kohonen maps (SOMs) are used to restore missing pixel values in a time series of satellite imagery. SOMs are trained for each spectral band separately using non-missing values. Missing values are restored through a special procedure that substitutes input sample's missing components with neuron's weight coefficients. After missing data restoration, a supervised classification is performed for multi-temporal satellite images. For this, an ensemble of neural networks, in particular multilayer perceptrons (MLPs), is proposed. Ensembling of neural networks is done by the technique of average committee, i.e. to calculate the average class probability over classifiers and select the class with the highest average posterior probability for the given input sample. The proposed approach is applied for large scale crop classification using multi temporal Landsat-8 images for the JECAM test site in Ukraine [1-2]. It is shown that ensemble of MLPs provides better performance than a single neural network in terms of overall classification accuracy and kappa coefficient. The obtained classification map is also validated through estimated crop and forest areas and comparison to official statistics. 1. A.Yu. Shelestov et al., "Geospatial information system for agricultural monitoring," Cybernetics Syst. Anal., vol. 49, no. 1, pp. 124-132, 2013. 2. J. Gallego et al., "Efficiency Assessment of Different Approaches to Crop Classification Based on Satellite and Ground Observations," J. Autom. Inform. Scie., vol. 44, no. 5, pp. 67-80, 2012.

Probability hazard map for future vent opening at Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy).

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brancato, Alfonso; Tusa, Giuseppina; Coltelli, Mauro; Proietti, Cristina

2014-05-01

Mount Etna is a composite stratovolcano located along the Ionian coast of eastern Sicily. The frequent flank eruptions occurrence (at an interval of years, mostly concentrated along the NE, S and W rift zones) lead to a high volcanic hazard that, linked with intense urbanization, poses a high volcanic risk. A long-term volcanic hazard assessment, mainly based on the past behaviour of the Etna volcano, is the basic tool for the evaluation of this risk. Then, a reliable forecast where the next eruption will occur is needed. A computer-assisted analysis and probabilistic evaluations will provide the relative map, thus allowing identification of the areas prone to the highest hazard. Based on these grounds, the use of a code such BET_EF (Bayesian Event Tree_Eruption Forecasting) showed that a suitable analysis can be explored (Selva et al., 2012). Following an analysis we are performing, a total of 6886 point-vents referring to the last 4.0 ka of Etna flank activity, and spread over an area of 744 km2 (divided into N=2976 squared cell, with side of 500 m), allowed us to estimate a pdf by applying a Gaussian kernel. The probability values represent a complete set of outcomes mutually exclusive and the relative sum is normalized to one over the investigated area; then, the basic assumptions of a Dirichlet distribution (the prior distribution set in the BET_EF code (Marzocchi et al., 2004, 2008)) still hold. One fundamental parameter is the the equivalent number of data, that depicts our confidence on the best guess probability. The BET_EF code also works with a likelihood function. This is modelled by a Multinomial distribution, with parameters representing the number of vents in each cell and the total number of past data (i.e. the 6886 point-vents). Given the grid of N cells, the final posterior distribution will be evaluated by multiplying the a priori Dirichlet probability distribution with the past data in each cell through the likelihood. The probability hazard map shows a tendency to concentrate along the NE and S rifts, as well as Valle del Bove, increasing the difference in probability between these areas and the rest of the volcano edifice. It is worthy notice that a higher significance is still evident along the W rift, even if not comparable with the ones of the above mentioned areas. References Marzocchi W., Sandri L., Gasparini P., Newhall C. and Boschi E.; 2004: Quantifying probabilities of volcanic events: The example of volcanic hazard at Mount Vesuvius, J. Geophys. Res., 109, B11201, doi:10.1029/2004JB00315U. Marzocchi W., Sandri, L. and Selva, J.; 2008: BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and short-term eruption forecasting, Bull. Volcanol., 70, 623 - 632, doi: 10.1007/s00445-007-0157-y. Selva J., Orsi G., Di Vito M.A., Marzocchi W. And Sandri L.; 2012: Probability hazard mapfor future vent opening atthe Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy, Bull. Volcanol., 74, 497 - 510, doi: 10.1007/s00445-011-0528-2.

Mapping multisensory parietal face and body areas in humans.

PubMed

Huang, Ruey-Song; Chen, Ching-fu; Tran, Alyssa T; Holstein, Katie L; Sereno, Martin I

2012-10-30

Detection and avoidance of impending obstacles is crucial to preventing head and body injuries in daily life. To safely avoid obstacles, locations of objects approaching the body surface are usually detected via the visual system and then used by the motor system to guide defensive movements. Mediating between visual input and motor output, the posterior parietal cortex plays an important role in integrating multisensory information in peripersonal space. We used functional MRI to map parietal areas that see and feel multisensory stimuli near or on the face and body. Tactile experiments using full-body air-puff stimulation suits revealed somatotopic areas of the face and multiple body parts forming a higher-level homunculus in the superior posterior parietal cortex. Visual experiments using wide-field looming stimuli revealed retinotopic maps that overlap with the parietal face and body areas in the postcentral sulcus at the most anterior border of the dorsal visual pathway. Starting at the parietal face area and moving medially and posteriorly into the lower-body areas, the median of visual polar-angle representations in these somatotopic areas gradually shifts from near the horizontal meridian into the lower visual field. These results suggest the parietal face and body areas fuse multisensory information in peripersonal space to guard an individual from head to toe.

Inverse Modeling Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Aided by Adaptive Stochastic Collocation Method with Transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, D.; Liao, Q.

2016-12-01

The Bayesian inference provides a convenient framework to solve statistical inverse problems. In this method, the parameters to be identified are treated as random variables. The prior knowledge, the system nonlinearity, and the measurement errors can be directly incorporated in the posterior probability density function (PDF) of the parameters. The Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is a powerful tool to generate samples from the posterior PDF. However, since the MCMC usually requires thousands or even millions of forward simulations, it can be a computationally intensive endeavor, particularly when faced with large-scale flow and transport models. To address this issue, we construct a surrogate system for the model responses in the form of polynomials by the stochastic collocation method. In addition, we employ interpolation based on the nested sparse grids and takes into account the different importance of the parameters, under the condition of high random dimensions in the stochastic space. Furthermore, in case of low regularity such as discontinuous or unsmooth relation between the input parameters and the output responses, we introduce an additional transform process to improve the accuracy of the surrogate model. Once we build the surrogate system, we may evaluate the likelihood with very little computational cost. We analyzed the convergence rate of the forward solution and the surrogate posterior by Kullback-Leibler divergence, which quantifies the difference between probability distributions. The fast convergence of the forward solution implies fast convergence of the surrogate posterior to the true posterior. We also tested the proposed algorithm on water-flooding two-phase flow reservoir examples. The posterior PDF calculated from a very long chain with direct forward simulation is assumed to be accurate. The posterior PDF calculated using the surrogate model is in reasonable agreement with the reference, revealing a great improvement in terms of computational efficiency.

Probability mapping of scarred myocardium using texture and intensity features in CMR images

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The myocardium exhibits heterogeneous nature due to scarring after Myocardial Infarction (MI). In Cardiac Magnetic Resonance (CMR) imaging, Late Gadolinium (LG) contrast agent enhances the intensity of scarred area in the myocardium. Methods In this paper, we propose a probability mapping technique using Texture and Intensity features to describe heterogeneous nature of the scarred myocardium in Cardiac Magnetic Resonance (CMR) images after Myocardial Infarction (MI). Scarred tissue and non-scarred tissue are represented with high and low probabilities, respectively. Intermediate values possibly indicate areas where the scarred and healthy tissues are interwoven. The probability map of scarred myocardium is calculated by using a probability function based on Bayes rule. Any set of features can be used in the probability function. Results In the present study, we demonstrate the use of two different types of features. One is based on the mean intensity of pixel and the other on underlying texture information of the scarred and non-scarred myocardium. Examples of probability maps computed using the mean intensity of pixel and the underlying texture information are presented. We hypothesize that the probability mapping of myocardium offers alternate visualization, possibly showing the details with physiological significance difficult to detect visually in the original CMR image. Conclusion The probability mapping obtained from the two features provides a way to define different cardiac segments which offer a way to identify areas in the myocardium of diagnostic importance (like core and border areas in scarred myocardium). PMID:24053280

Neuronal substrates of Corsi Block span: Lesion symptom mapping analyses in relation to attentional competition and spatial bias.

PubMed

Chechlacz, Magdalena; Rotshtein, Pia; Humphreys, Glyn W

2014-11-01

Spatial working memory problems are frequently reported following brain damage within both left and right hemispheres but with the severity often being grater in individuals with right hemisphere lesions. Clinically, deficits in spatial working memory have also been noted in patients with visuospatial disorders such as unilateral neglect. Here, we examined neural substrates of short-term memory for spatial locations based on the Corsi Block tapping task and the relationship with the visuospatial deficits of neglect and extinction in a group of chronic neuropsychological patients. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to distinguish shared and dissociate functional components. The neural substrates of spatial short-term memory deficits and the components identified by PCA were examined using whole brain voxel-based morphometry and tract-wise lesion deficits analyses. We found that bilateral lesions within occipital cortex (middle occipital gyrus) and right posterior parietal cortex, along with disconnection of the right parieto-temporal segment of arcuate fasciculus, were associated with low spatial memory span. A single component revealed by PCA accounted for over half of the variance and was linked to damage to right posterior brain regions (temporo-parietal junction, the inferior parietal lobule and middle temporal gyrus extending into middle occipital gyrus). We also found link to disconnections within several association pathways including the superior longitudinal fasciculus, arcuate fasciculus, inferior fronto-occipital fasciculus and inferior longitudinal fasciculus. These results indicate that different visuospatial deficits converge into a single component mapped within posterior parietal areas and fronto-parietal white matter pathways. Furthermore, the data presented here fit with the role of posterior parietal cortex/temporo-parietal junction in maintaining a map of salient locations in space, with Corsi Block performance being impaired when the spatial map is damaged. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Simultaneous Anterior and Posterior Serosal Mapping of Gastric Slow Wave Dysrhythmias Induced by Vasopressin

PubMed Central

Du, Peng; O'Grady, Greg; Paskaranandavadivel, Niranchan; Tang, Shou-jiang; Abell, Thomas; Cheng, Leo K

2016-01-01

Background High-resolution (HR) mapping enables mechanistic insights into gastric slow wave dysrhythmias and is now achieving clinical translation. However, previous studies have focused mainly on dysrhythmias occurring on the anterior gastric wall. The present study simultaneously mapped the anterior and posterior gastric serosa during episodes of dysrhythmias induced by vasopressin to aid understanding of dysrhythmia initiation, maintenance and termination.. Methods HR mapping (8×16 electrodes on each serosa; 20-74 cm2) was performed in anesthetized subjects. Baseline recordings (21±8 min) were followed by intravenous vasopressin infusion (0.1-0.5 IU/mL at 60-190 mL/hour) and further recordings (22±13 min). Slow wave activation maps, amplitudes, velocity, interval, and frequency were calculated, and differences compared between baseline and post-infusion. Results All subjects demonstrated and increased prevalence of dysrhythmic events following infusion of vasopressin (17% vs 51%).Both amplitude and velocity demonstrated significant differences (baseline vs. post-infusion: 3.6 vs. 2.2 mV; 7.7 vs. 6.5 mm s−1; P < 0.05 for both). Dysrhythmias occurred simultaneously or independently on anterior and posterior serosa, and then interacted according to frequency dynamics. A number of persistent dysrhythmias were compared, including: ectopic activation (n=2 subjects), conduction block (n=1), rotor (n=2), retrograde (n=3), collision/merge of wavefronts (n=2). Conclusions Infusion of vasopressin induces gastric dysrhythmias, which occurred across a heterogeneous range of frequencies and patterns. The results demonstrated that different classes of gastric dysrhythmias may arise simultaneously or independently in one or both surfaces of the serosa, then interact according to their relative frequencies. These results will help inform clinical dysrhythmia interpretations. PMID:27265885

Estimation from incomplete multinomial data. Ph.D. Thesis - Harvard Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Credeur, K. R.

1978-01-01

The vector of multinomial cell probabilities was estimated from incomplete data, incomplete in that it contains partially classified observations. Each such partially classified observation was observed to fall in one of two or more selected categories but was not classified further into a single category. The data were assumed to be incomplete at random. The estimation criterion was minimization of risk for quadratic loss. The estimators were the classical maximum likelihood estimate, the Bayesian posterior mode, and the posterior mean. An approximation was developed for the posterior mean. The Dirichlet, the conjugate prior for the multinomial distribution, was assumed for the prior distribution.

REGULATION OF EPHRIN-A EXPRESSION IN COMPRESSED RETINOCOLLICULAR MAPS

PubMed Central

Tadesse, T.; Cheng, Q.; Xu, M.; Baro, D.J.; Young, L.J.; Pallas, S.L.

2012-01-01

Retinotopic maps can undergo compression and expansion in response to changes in target size, but the mechanism underlying this compensatory process has remained a mystery. The discovery of ephrins as molecular mediators of Sperry’s chemoaffinity process allows a mechanistic approach to this important issue. In Syrian hamsters, neonatal, partial (PT) ablation of posterior superior colliculus (SC) leads to compression of the retinotopic map, independent of neural activity. Graded, repulsive EphA receptor/ephrin-A ligand interactions direct the formation of the retinocollicular map, but whether ephrins might also be involved in map compression is unknown. To examine whether map compression might be directed by changes in the ephrin expression pattern, we compared ephrin-A2 and ephrin-A5 mRNA expression between normal SC and PT SC using in situ hybridization and quantitative real-time PCR. We found that ephrin-A ligand expression in the compressed maps was low anteriorly and high posteriorly, as in normal animals. Consistent with our hypothesis, the steepness of the ephrin gradient increased in the lesioned colliculi. Interestingly, overall levels of ephrin-A2 and -A5 expression declined immediately after neonatal target damage, perhaps promoting axon outgrowth. These data establish a correlation between changes in ephrin-A gradients and map compression, and suggest that ephrin-A expression gradients may be regulated by target size. This in turn could lead to compression of the retinocollicular map onto the reduced target. These findings have important implications for mechanisms of recovery from traumatic brain injury. PMID:23008269

Little Bayesians or Little Einsteins? Probability and Explanatory Virtue in Children's Inferences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnston, Angie M.; Johnson, Samuel G. B.; Koven, Marissa L.; Keil, Frank C.

2017-01-01

Like scientists, children seek ways to explain causal systems in the world. But are children scientists in the strict Bayesian tradition of maximizing posterior probability? Or do they attend to other explanatory considerations, as laypeople and scientists--such as Einstein--do? Four experiments support the latter possibility. In particular, we…

Studying the effects of fuel treatment based on burn probability on a boreal forest landscape.

PubMed

Liu, Zhihua; Yang, Jian; He, Hong S

2013-01-30

Fuel treatment is assumed to be a primary tactic to mitigate intense and damaging wildfires. However, how to place treatment units across a landscape and assess its effectiveness is difficult for landscape-scale fuel management planning. In this study, we used a spatially explicit simulation model (LANDIS) to conduct wildfire risk assessments and optimize the placement of fuel treatments at the landscape scale. We first calculated a baseline burn probability map from empirical data (fuel, topography, weather, and fire ignition and size data) to assess fire risk. We then prioritized landscape-scale fuel treatment based on maps of burn probability and fuel loads (calculated from the interactions among tree composition, stand age, and disturbance history), and compared their effects on reducing fire risk. The burn probability map described the likelihood of burning on a given location; the fuel load map described the probability that a high fuel load will accumulate on a given location. Fuel treatment based on the burn probability map specified that stands with high burn probability be treated first, while fuel treatment based on the fuel load map specified that stands with high fuel loads be treated first. Our results indicated that fuel treatment based on burn probability greatly reduced the burned area and number of fires of different intensities. Fuel treatment based on burn probability also produced more dispersed and smaller high-risk fire patches and therefore can improve efficiency of subsequent fire suppression. The strength of our approach is that more model components (e.g., succession, fuel, and harvest) can be linked into LANDIS to map the spatially explicit wildfire risk and its dynamics to fuel management, vegetation dynamics, and harvesting. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gray matter abnormalities of the dorsal posterior cingulate in sleep walking.

PubMed

Heidbreder, Anna; Stefani, Ambra; Brandauer, Elisabeth; Steiger, Ruth; Kremser, Christian; Gizewski, Elke R; Young, Peter; Poewe, Werner; Högl, Birgit; Scherfler, Christoph

2017-08-01

This study aimed to determine whether voxel-based analysis of T1 weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and diffusion tensor imaging is able to detect alterations of gray and white matter morphometry as well as measures of mean diffusivity and fractional anisotropy in patients with non-rapid eye movement parasomnia. 3 Tesla MRI was performed in 14 drug-free, polysomnography-confirmed adult patients with non-rapid eye movement parasomnia (age: 29 ± 4.2 years; disease duration 19.2 ± 7.7 years) and 14 healthy subjects, matched for age and gender. Statistical parametric mapping was applied to objectively identify focal changes of MRI parameters throughout the entire brain volume. Statistical parametric mapping localized significant decreases of gray matter volume in the left dorsal posterior cingulate cortex (BA23) and posterior midcingulate cortex (BA24) in patients with non-rapid eye movement parasomnias compared to the control group (p < 0.001, corrected for multiple comparisons). No significant differences of mean diffusivity and fractional anisotropy measures were found between the non-rapid eye movement parasomnia group and the healthy control group. Recently, the simultaneous co-existence of arousal or wakefulness originating from the motor and cingulate cortices and persistent sleep in associative cortical regions was suggested as a functional framework of somnambulism. Gray matter volume decline in the dorsal posterior and posterior midcingulate cortex reported in this study might represent the neuroanatomical substrate for this condition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Creation of the BMA ensemble for SST using a parallel processing technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Kwangjin; Lee, Yang Won

2013-10-01

Despite the same purpose, each satellite product has different value because of its inescapable uncertainty. Also the satellite products have been calculated for a long time, and the kinds of the products are various and enormous. So the efforts for reducing the uncertainty and dealing with enormous data will be necessary. In this paper, we create an ensemble Sea Surface Temperature (SST) using MODIS Aqua, MODIS Terra and COMS (Communication Ocean and Meteorological Satellite). We used Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) as ensemble method. The principle of the BMA is synthesizing the conditional probability density function (PDF) using posterior probability as weight. The posterior probability is estimated using EM algorithm. The BMA PDF is obtained by weighted average. As the result, the ensemble SST showed the lowest RMSE and MAE, which proves the applicability of BMA for satellite data ensemble. As future work, parallel processing techniques using Hadoop framework will be adopted for more efficient computation of very big satellite data.

Comparison of sampling techniques for Bayesian parameter estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allison, Rupert; Dunkley, Joanna

2014-02-01

The posterior probability distribution for a set of model parameters encodes all that the data have to tell us in the context of a given model; it is the fundamental quantity for Bayesian parameter estimation. In order to infer the posterior probability distribution we have to decide how to explore parameter space. Here we compare three prescriptions for how parameter space is navigated, discussing their relative merits. We consider Metropolis-Hasting sampling, nested sampling and affine-invariant ensemble Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. We focus on their performance on toy-model Gaussian likelihoods and on a real-world cosmological data set. We outline the sampling algorithms themselves and elaborate on performance diagnostics such as convergence time, scope for parallelization, dimensional scaling, requisite tunings and suitability for non-Gaussian distributions. We find that nested sampling delivers high-fidelity estimates for posterior statistics at low computational cost, and should be adopted in favour of Metropolis-Hastings in many cases. Affine-invariant MCMC is competitive when computing clusters can be utilized for massive parallelization. Affine-invariant MCMC and existing extensions to nested sampling naturally probe multimodal and curving distributions.

Estimation of Model's Marginal likelihood Using Adaptive Sparse Grid Surrogates in Bayesian Model Averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeng, X.

2015-12-01

A large number of model executions are required to obtain alternative conceptual models' predictions and their posterior probabilities in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The posterior model probability is estimated through models' marginal likelihood and prior probability. The heavy computation burden hinders the implementation of BMA prediction, especially for the elaborated marginal likelihood estimator. For overcoming the computation burden of BMA, an adaptive sparse grid (SG) stochastic collocation method is used to build surrogates for alternative conceptual models through the numerical experiment of a synthetical groundwater model. BMA predictions depend on model posterior weights (or marginal likelihoods), and this study also evaluated four marginal likelihood estimators, including arithmetic mean estimator (AME), harmonic mean estimator (HME), stabilized harmonic mean estimator (SHME), and thermodynamic integration estimator (TIE). The results demonstrate that TIE is accurate in estimating conceptual models' marginal likelihoods. The BMA-TIE has better predictive performance than other BMA predictions. TIE has high stability for estimating conceptual model's marginal likelihood. The repeated estimated conceptual model's marginal likelihoods by TIE have significant less variability than that estimated by other estimators. In addition, the SG surrogates are efficient to facilitate BMA predictions, especially for BMA-TIE. The number of model executions needed for building surrogates is 4.13%, 6.89%, 3.44%, and 0.43% of the required model executions of BMA-AME, BMA-HME, BMA-SHME, and BMA-TIE, respectively.

a Novel Discrete Optimal Transport Method for Bayesian Inverse Problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bui-Thanh, T.; Myers, A.; Wang, K.; Thiery, A.

2017-12-01

We present the Augmented Ensemble Transform (AET) method for generating approximate samples from a high-dimensional posterior distribution as a solution to Bayesian inverse problems. Solving large-scale inverse problems is critical for some of the most relevant and impactful scientific endeavors of our time. Therefore, constructing novel methods for solving the Bayesian inverse problem in more computationally efficient ways can have a profound impact on the science community. This research derives the novel AET method for exploring a posterior by solving a sequence of linear programming problems, resulting in a series of transport maps which map prior samples to posterior samples, allowing for the computation of moments of the posterior. We show both theoretical and numerical results, indicating this method can offer superior computational efficiency when compared to other SMC methods. Most of this efficiency is derived from matrix scaling methods to solve the linear programming problem and derivative-free optimization for particle movement. We use this method to determine inter-well connectivity in a reservoir and the associated uncertainty related to certain parameters. The attached file shows the difference between the true parameter and the AET parameter in an example 3D reservoir problem. The error is within the Morozov discrepancy allowance with lower computational cost than other particle methods.

Bayesian analysis of the astrobiological implications of life’s early emergence on Earth

PubMed Central

Spiegel, David S.; Turner, Edwin L.

2012-01-01

Life arose on Earth sometime in the first few hundred million years after the young planet had cooled to the point that it could support water-based organisms on its surface. The early emergence of life on Earth has been taken as evidence that the probability of abiogenesis is high, if starting from young Earth-like conditions. We revisit this argument quantitatively in a Bayesian statistical framework. By constructing a simple model of the probability of abiogenesis, we calculate a Bayesian estimate of its posterior probability, given the data that life emerged fairly early in Earth’s history and that, billions of years later, curious creatures noted this fact and considered its implications. We find that, given only this very limited empirical information, the choice of Bayesian prior for the abiogenesis probability parameter has a dominant influence on the computed posterior probability. Although terrestrial life's early emergence provides evidence that life might be abundant in the universe if early-Earth-like conditions are common, the evidence is inconclusive and indeed is consistent with an arbitrarily low intrinsic probability of abiogenesis for plausible uninformative priors. Finding a single case of life arising independently of our lineage (on Earth, elsewhere in the solar system, or on an extrasolar planet) would provide much stronger evidence that abiogenesis is not extremely rare in the universe. PMID:22198766

Bayesian analysis of the astrobiological implications of life's early emergence on Earth.

PubMed

Spiegel, David S; Turner, Edwin L

2012-01-10

Life arose on Earth sometime in the first few hundred million years after the young planet had cooled to the point that it could support water-based organisms on its surface. The early emergence of life on Earth has been taken as evidence that the probability of abiogenesis is high, if starting from young Earth-like conditions. We revisit this argument quantitatively in a bayesian statistical framework. By constructing a simple model of the probability of abiogenesis, we calculate a bayesian estimate of its posterior probability, given the data that life emerged fairly early in Earth's history and that, billions of years later, curious creatures noted this fact and considered its implications. We find that, given only this very limited empirical information, the choice of bayesian prior for the abiogenesis probability parameter has a dominant influence on the computed posterior probability. Although terrestrial life's early emergence provides evidence that life might be abundant in the universe if early-Earth-like conditions are common, the evidence is inconclusive and indeed is consistent with an arbitrarily low intrinsic probability of abiogenesis for plausible uninformative priors. Finding a single case of life arising independently of our lineage (on Earth, elsewhere in the solar system, or on an extrasolar planet) would provide much stronger evidence that abiogenesis is not extremely rare in the universe.

Data integration in physiology using Bayes’ rule and minimum Bayes’ factors: deubiquitylating enzymes in the renal collecting duct

PubMed Central

Xue, Zhe; Chen, Jia-Xu; Zhao, Yue; Medvar, Barbara

2017-01-01

A major challenge in physiology is to exploit the many large-scale data sets available from “-omic” studies to seek answers to key physiological questions. In previous studies, Bayes’ theorem has been used for this purpose. This approach requires a means to map continuously distributed experimental data to probabilities (likelihood values) to derive posterior probabilities from the combination of prior probabilities and new data. Here, we introduce the use of minimum Bayes’ factors for this purpose and illustrate the approach by addressing a physiological question, “Which deubiquitylating enzymes (DUBs) encoded by mammalian genomes are most likely to regulate plasma membrane transport processes in renal cortical collecting duct principal cells?” To do this, we have created a comprehensive online database of 110 DUBs present in the mammalian genome (https://hpcwebapps.cit.nih.gov/ESBL/Database/DUBs/). We used Bayes’ theorem to integrate available information from large-scale data sets derived from proteomic and transcriptomic studies of renal collecting duct cells to rank the 110 known DUBs with regard to likelihood of interacting with and regulating transport processes. The top-ranked DUBs were OTUB1, USP14, PSMD7, PSMD14, USP7, USP9X, OTUD4, USP10, and UCHL5. Among these USP7, USP9X, OTUD4, and USP10 are known to be involved in endosomal trafficking and have potential roles in endosomal recycling of plasma membrane proteins in the mammalian cortical collecting duct. PMID:28039431

Data integration in physiology using Bayes' rule and minimum Bayes' factors: deubiquitylating enzymes in the renal collecting duct.

PubMed

Xue, Zhe; Chen, Jia-Xu; Zhao, Yue; Medvar, Barbara; Knepper, Mark A

2017-03-01

A major challenge in physiology is to exploit the many large-scale data sets available from "-omic" studies to seek answers to key physiological questions. In previous studies, Bayes' theorem has been used for this purpose. This approach requires a means to map continuously distributed experimental data to probabilities (likelihood values) to derive posterior probabilities from the combination of prior probabilities and new data. Here, we introduce the use of minimum Bayes' factors for this purpose and illustrate the approach by addressing a physiological question, "Which deubiquitylating enzymes (DUBs) encoded by mammalian genomes are most likely to regulate plasma membrane transport processes in renal cortical collecting duct principal cells?" To do this, we have created a comprehensive online database of 110 DUBs present in the mammalian genome (https://hpcwebapps.cit.nih.gov/ESBL/Database/DUBs/). We used Bayes' theorem to integrate available information from large-scale data sets derived from proteomic and transcriptomic studies of renal collecting duct cells to rank the 110 known DUBs with regard to likelihood of interacting with and regulating transport processes. The top-ranked DUBs were OTUB1, USP14, PSMD7, PSMD14, USP7, USP9X, OTUD4, USP10, and UCHL5. Among these USP7, USP9X, OTUD4, and USP10 are known to be involved in endosomal trafficking and have potential roles in endosomal recycling of plasma membrane proteins in the mammalian cortical collecting duct. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Time-dependent landslide probability mapping

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Russell H.; Bernknopf, Richard L.; ,

1993-01-01

Case studies where time of failure is known for rainfall-triggered debris flows can be used to estimate the parameters of a hazard model in which the probability of failure is a function of time. As an example, a time-dependent function for the conditional probability of a soil slip is estimated from independent variables representing hillside morphology, approximations of material properties, and the duration and rate of rainfall. If probabilities are calculated in a GIS (geomorphic information system ) environment, the spatial distribution of the result for any given hour can be displayed on a map. Although the probability levels in this example are uncalibrated, the method offers a potential for evaluating different physical models and different earth-science variables by comparing the map distribution of predicted probabilities with inventory maps for different areas and different storms. If linked with spatial and temporal socio-economic variables, this method could be used for short-term risk assessment.

Oregon Cascades Play Fairway Analysis: Faults and Heat Flow maps

DOE Data Explorer

Adam Brandt

2015-11-15

This submission includes a fault map of the Oregon Cascades and backarc, a probability map of heat flow, and a fault density probability layer. More extensive metadata can be found within each zip file.

A Fast and Scalable Method for A-Optimal Design of Experiments for Infinite-dimensional Bayesian Nonlinear Inverse Problems with Application to Porous Medium Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petra, N.; Alexanderian, A.; Stadler, G.; Ghattas, O.

2015-12-01

We address the problem of optimal experimental design (OED) for Bayesian nonlinear inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). The inverse problem seeks to infer a parameter field (e.g., the log permeability field in a porous medium flow model problem) from synthetic observations at a set of sensor locations and from the governing PDEs. The goal of the OED problem is to find an optimal placement of sensors so as to minimize the uncertainty in the inferred parameter field. We formulate the OED objective function by generalizing the classical A-optimal experimental design criterion using the expected value of the trace of the posterior covariance. This expected value is computed through sample averaging over the set of likely experimental data. Due to the infinite-dimensional character of the parameter field, we seek an optimization method that solves the OED problem at a cost (measured in the number of forward PDE solves) that is independent of both the parameter and the sensor dimension. To facilitate this goal, we construct a Gaussian approximation to the posterior at the maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) point, and use the resulting covariance operator to define the OED objective function. We use randomized trace estimation to compute the trace of this covariance operator. The resulting OED problem includes as constraints the system of PDEs characterizing the MAP point, and the PDEs describing the action of the covariance (of the Gaussian approximation to the posterior) to vectors. We control the sparsity of the sensor configurations using sparsifying penalty functions, and solve the resulting penalized bilevel optimization problem via an interior-point quasi-Newton method, where gradient information is computed via adjoints. We elaborate our OED method for the problem of determining the optimal sensor configuration to best infer the log permeability field in a porous medium flow problem. Numerical results show that the number of PDE solves required for the evaluation of the OED objective function and its gradient is essentially independent of both the parameter dimension and the sensor dimension (i.e., the number of candidate sensor locations). The number of quasi-Newton iterations for computing an OED also exhibits the same dimension invariance properties.

Variable selection models for genomic selection using whole-genome sequence data and singular value decomposition.

PubMed

Meuwissen, Theo H E; Indahl, Ulf G; Ødegård, Jørgen

2017-12-27

Non-linear Bayesian genomic prediction models such as BayesA/B/C/R involve iteration and mostly Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, which are computationally expensive, especially when whole-genome sequence (WGS) data are analyzed. Singular value decomposition (SVD) of the genotype matrix can facilitate genomic prediction in large datasets, and can be used to estimate marker effects and their prediction error variances (PEV) in a computationally efficient manner. Here, we developed, implemented, and evaluated a direct, non-iterative method for the estimation of marker effects for the BayesC genomic prediction model. The BayesC model assumes a priori that markers have normally distributed effects with probability [Formula: see text] and no effect with probability (1 - [Formula: see text]). Marker effects and their PEV are estimated by using SVD and the posterior probability of the marker having a non-zero effect is calculated. These posterior probabilities are used to obtain marker-specific effect variances, which are subsequently used to approximate BayesC estimates of marker effects in a linear model. A computer simulation study was conducted to compare alternative genomic prediction methods, where a single reference generation was used to estimate marker effects, which were subsequently used for 10 generations of forward prediction, for which accuracies were evaluated. SVD-based posterior probabilities of markers having non-zero effects were generally lower than MCMC-based posterior probabilities, but for some regions the opposite occurred, resulting in clear signals for QTL-rich regions. The accuracies of breeding values estimated using SVD- and MCMC-based BayesC analyses were similar across the 10 generations of forward prediction. For an intermediate number of generations (2 to 5) of forward prediction, accuracies obtained with the BayesC model tended to be slightly higher than accuracies obtained using the best linear unbiased prediction of SNP effects (SNP-BLUP model). When reducing marker density from WGS data to 30 K, SNP-BLUP tended to yield the highest accuracies, at least in the short term. Based on SVD of the genotype matrix, we developed a direct method for the calculation of BayesC estimates of marker effects. Although SVD- and MCMC-based marker effects differed slightly, their prediction accuracies were similar. Assuming that the SVD of the marker genotype matrix is already performed for other reasons (e.g. for SNP-BLUP), computation times for the BayesC predictions were comparable to those of SNP-BLUP.

The Influence of Phonotactic Probability on Nonword Repetition and Fast Mapping in 3-Year-Olds With a History of Expressive Language Delay.

PubMed

MacRoy-Higgins, Michelle; Dalton, Kevin Patrick

2015-12-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of phonotactic probability on sublexical (phonological) and lexical representations in 3-year-olds who had a history of being late talkers in comparison with their peers with typical language development. Ten 3-year-olds who were late talkers and 10 age-matched typically developing controls completed nonword repetition and fast mapping tasks; stimuli for both experimental procedures differed in phonotactic probability. Both participant groups repeated nonwords containing high phonotactic probability sequences more accurately than nonwords containing low phonotactic probability sequences. Participants with typical language showed an early advantage for fast mapping high phonotactic probability words; children who were late talkers required more exposures to the novel words to show the same advantage for fast mapping high phonotactic probability words. Children who were late talkers showed similar sensitivities to phonotactic probability in nonword repetition and word learning when compared with their peers with no history of language delay. However, word learning in children who were late talkers appeared to be slower when compared with their peers.

M3RSM: Many-to-Many Multi-Resolution Scan Matching

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-05-01

a localization problem), or may be derived from a LIDAR scan earlier in the robot’s trajectory (a SLAM problem). The reference map is generally...Mapping ( SLAM ) systems prevent the unbounded accumulation of error. A typical approach with laser range-finder data is to compute the posterior...even greater bottleneck than the SLAM optimiza- tion itself. In our multi-robot mapping system, over a dozen robots explored an area simultaneously [14

Impact of Voltage Mapping to Guide Whether to Perform Ablation of the Posterior Wall in Patients With Persistent Atrial Fibrillation.

PubMed

Cutler, Michael J; Johnson, Jeremy; Abozguia, Khalid; Rowan, Shane; Lewis, William; Costantini, Otto; Natale, Andrea; Ziv, Ohad

2016-01-01

Fibrosis as a substrate for atrial fibrillation (AF) has been shown in numerous preclinical models. Voltage mapping enables in vivo assessment of scar in the left atrium (LA), which can be targeted with catheter ablation. We hypothesized that using the presence or absence of low voltage to guide ablation beyond pulmonary vein antral isolation (PVAI) will improve atrial arrhythmia (AF/AT)-free survival in persistent AF. Single-center retrospective analysis of 2 AF ablation strategies: (1) standard ablation (SA) versus (2) voltage-guided ablation (VGA). PVAI was performed in both groups. With SA, additional lesions beyond PVAI were performed at the discretion of the operator. With VGA, additional lesions to isolate the LA posterior wall were performed if voltage mapping of this region in sinus rhythm showed scar (LA voltage < 0.5 mV). AF-/AT-free endpoint was defined as no sustained AF/AT seen off antiarrhythmic medications after a 2-month postablation blanking period. Seventy-six patients underwent SA and 65 underwent VGA. Patients were well matched for comorbidities, LVEF, and left atrial size. Posterior wall ablation was performed in 57% of patient with SA compared to 42% with VGA. VGA ablation increased 1-year AF-/AT-free survival in patients when compared to SA (80% vs. 57%; P = 0.005). In a multivariate analysis, VGA was the only independent predictor of AF-/AT-free survival (hazard ratio of 0.30; P = 0.002). The presence of LA posterior wall scar may be an important ablation target in persistent AF. A prospective randomized trial is needed to confirm these data. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The known unknowns: neural representation of second-order uncertainty, and ambiguity

PubMed Central

Bach, Dominik R.; Hulme, Oliver; Penny, William D.; Dolan, Raymond J.

2011-01-01

Predictions provided by action-outcome probabilities entail a degree of (first-order) uncertainty. However, these probabilities themselves can be imprecise and embody second-order uncertainty. Tracking second-order uncertainty is important for optimal decision making and reinforcement learning. Previous functional magnetic resonance imaging investigations of second-order uncertainty in humans have drawn on an economic concept of ambiguity, where action-outcome associations in a gamble are either known (unambiguous) or completely unknown (ambiguous). Here, we relaxed the constraints associated with a purely categorical concept of ambiguity and varied the second-order uncertainty of gambles continuously, quantified as entropy over second-order probabilities. We show that second-order uncertainty influences decisions in a pessimistic way by biasing second-order probabilities, and that second-order uncertainty is negatively correlated with posterior cingulate cortex activity. The category of ambiguous (compared to non-ambiguous) gambles also biased choice in a similar direction, but was associated with distinct activation of a posterior parietal cortical area; an activation that we show reflects a different computational mechanism. Our findings indicate that behavioural and neural responses to second-order uncertainty are distinct from those associated with ambiguity and may call for a reappraisal of previous data. PMID:21451019

Fractional Gaussian model in global optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dimri, V. P.; Srivastava, R. P.

2009-12-01

Earth system is inherently non-linear and it can be characterized well if we incorporate no-linearity in the formulation and solution of the problem. General tool often used for characterization of the earth system is inversion. Traditionally inverse problems are solved using least-square based inversion by linearizing the formulation. The initial model in such inversion schemes is often assumed to follow posterior Gaussian probability distribution. It is now well established that most of the physical properties of the earth follow power law (fractal distribution). Thus, the selection of initial model based on power law probability distribution will provide more realistic solution. We present a new method which can draw samples of posterior probability density function very efficiently using fractal based statistics. The application of the method has been demonstrated to invert band limited seismic data with well control. We used fractal based probability density function which uses mean, variance and Hurst coefficient of the model space to draw initial model. Further this initial model is used in global optimization inversion scheme. Inversion results using initial models generated by our method gives high resolution estimates of the model parameters than the hitherto used gradient based liner inversion method.

Inverse Problems in Complex Models and Applications to Earth Sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosch, M. E.

2015-12-01

The inference of the subsurface earth structure and properties requires the integration of different types of data, information and knowledge, by combined processes of analysis and synthesis. To support the process of integrating information, the regular concept of data inversion is evolving to expand its application to models with multiple inner components (properties, scales, structural parameters) that explain multiple data (geophysical survey data, well-logs, core data). The probabilistic inference methods provide the natural framework for the formulation of these problems, considering a posterior probability density function (PDF) that combines the information from a prior information PDF and the new sets of observations. To formulate the posterior PDF in the context of multiple datasets, the data likelihood functions are factorized assuming independence of uncertainties for data originating across different surveys. A realistic description of the earth medium requires modeling several properties and structural parameters, which relate to each other according to dependency and independency notions. Thus, conditional probabilities across model components also factorize. A common setting proceeds by structuring the model parameter space in hierarchical layers. A primary layer (e.g. lithology) conditions a secondary layer (e.g. physical medium properties), which conditions a third layer (e.g. geophysical data). In general, less structured relations within model components and data emerge from the analysis of other inverse problems. They can be described with flexibility via direct acyclic graphs, which are graphs that map dependency relations between the model components. Examples of inverse problems in complex models can be shown at various scales. At local scale, for example, the distribution of gas saturation is inferred from pre-stack seismic data and a calibrated rock-physics model. At regional scale, joint inversion of gravity and magnetic data is applied for the estimation of lithological structure of the crust, with the lithotype body regions conditioning the mass density and magnetic susceptibility fields. At planetary scale, the Earth mantle temperature and element composition is inferred from seismic travel-time and geodetic data.

Revision of Time-Independent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, Robert L.; Boyd, Oliver S.; Mueller, Charles S.; Bufe, Charles G.; Frankel, Arthur D.; Petersen, Mark D.

2007-01-01

We present here time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404), 5 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.001026) and 10 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.0021). These maps represent a revision of existing maps based on newly obtained data and assumptions reflecting best current judgments about methodology and approach. These maps have been prepared following the procedures and assumptions made in the preparation of the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the lower 48 States. A significant improvement relative to the 2002 methodology is the ability to include variable slip rate along a fault where appropriate. These maps incorporate new data, the responses to comments received at workshops held in Fairbanks and Anchorage, Alaska, in May, 2005, and comments received after draft maps were posted on the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Web Site. These maps will be proposed for adoption in future revisions to the International Building Code. In this documentation we describe the maps and in particular explain and justify changes that have been made relative to the 1999 maps. We are also preparing a series of experimental maps of time-dependent hazard that will be described in future documents.

Estimators of The Magnitude-Squared Spectrum and Methods for Incorporating SNR Uncertainty

PubMed Central

Lu, Yang; Loizou, Philipos C.

2011-01-01

Statistical estimators of the magnitude-squared spectrum are derived based on the assumption that the magnitude-squared spectrum of the noisy speech signal can be computed as the sum of the (clean) signal and noise magnitude-squared spectra. Maximum a posterior (MAP) and minimum mean square error (MMSE) estimators are derived based on a Gaussian statistical model. The gain function of the MAP estimator was found to be identical to the gain function used in the ideal binary mask (IdBM) that is widely used in computational auditory scene analysis (CASA). As such, it was binary and assumed the value of 1 if the local SNR exceeded 0 dB, and assumed the value of 0 otherwise. By modeling the local instantaneous SNR as an F-distributed random variable, soft masking methods were derived incorporating SNR uncertainty. The soft masking method, in particular, which weighted the noisy magnitude-squared spectrum by the a priori probability that the local SNR exceeds 0 dB was shown to be identical to the Wiener gain function. Results indicated that the proposed estimators yielded significantly better speech quality than the conventional MMSE spectral power estimators, in terms of yielding lower residual noise and lower speech distortion. PMID:21886543

Aerosol-type retrieval and uncertainty quantification from OMI data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauppi, Anu; Kolmonen, Pekka; Laine, Marko; Tamminen, Johanna

2017-11-01

We discuss uncertainty quantification for aerosol-type selection in satellite-based atmospheric aerosol retrieval. The retrieval procedure uses precalculated aerosol microphysical models stored in look-up tables (LUTs) and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) spectral reflectance measurements to solve the aerosol characteristics. The forward model approximations cause systematic differences between the modelled and observed reflectance. Acknowledging this model discrepancy as a source of uncertainty allows us to produce more realistic uncertainty estimates and assists the selection of the most appropriate LUTs for each individual retrieval.This paper focuses on the aerosol microphysical model selection and characterisation of uncertainty in the retrieved aerosol type and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The concept of model evidence is used as a tool for model comparison. The method is based on Bayesian inference approach, in which all uncertainties are described as a posterior probability distribution. When there is no single best-matching aerosol microphysical model, we use a statistical technique based on Bayesian model averaging to combine AOD posterior probability densities of the best-fitting models to obtain an averaged AOD estimate. We also determine the shared evidence of the best-matching models of a certain main aerosol type in order to quantify how plausible it is that it represents the underlying atmospheric aerosol conditions.The developed method is applied to Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) measurements using a multiwavelength approach for retrieving the aerosol type and AOD estimate with uncertainty quantification for cloud-free over-land pixels. Several larger pixel set areas were studied in order to investigate the robustness of the developed method. We evaluated the retrieved AOD by comparison with ground-based measurements at example sites. We found that the uncertainty of AOD expressed by posterior probability distribution reflects the difficulty in model selection. The posterior probability distribution can provide a comprehensive characterisation of the uncertainty in this kind of problem for aerosol-type selection. As a result, the proposed method can account for the model error and also include the model selection uncertainty in the total uncertainty budget.

Seismic imaging of Q structures by a trans-dimensional coda-wave analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takahashi, Tsutomu

2017-04-01

Wave scattering and intrinsic attenuation are important processes to describe incoherent and complex wave trains of high frequency seismic wave (>1Hz). The multiple lapse time window analysis (MLTWA) has been used to estimate scattering and intrinsic Q values by assuming constant Q in a study area (e.g., Hoshiba 1993). This study generalizes this MLTWA to estimate lateral variations of Q values under the Bayesian framework in dimension variable space. Study area is partitioned into small areas by means of the Voronoi tessellation. Scattering and intrinsic Q in each small area are constant. We define a misfit function for spatiotemporal variations of wave energy as with the original MLTWA, and maximize the posterior probability with changing not only Q values but the number and spatial layout of the Voronoi cells. This maximization is conducted by means of the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (rjMCMC) (Green 1995) since the number of unknown parameters (i.e., dimension of posterior probability) is variable. After a convergence to the maximum posterior, we estimate Q structures from the ensemble averages of MCMC samples around the maximum posterior probability. Synthetic tests showed stable reconstructions of input structures with reasonable error distributions. We applied this method for seismic waveform data recorded by ocean bottom seismograms at the outer-rise area off Tohoku, and estimated Q values at 4-8Hz, 8-16Hz and 16-32Hz. Intrinsic Q are nearly constant at all frequency bands, and scattering Q shows two distinct strong scattering regions at petit spot area and high seismicity area. These strong scattering are probably related to magma inclusions and fractured structure, respectively. Difference between these two areas becomes clear at high frequencies. It means that scale dependences of inhomogeneities or smaller scale inhomogeneity is important to discuss medium property and origins of structural variations. While the generalized MLTWA is based on a classical waveform modeling in constant Q medium, this method can be a fundamental basis for Q structure imaging in the crust.

Fast Bayesian approach for modal identification using free vibration data, Part I - Most probable value

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Feng-Liang; Ni, Yan-Chun; Au, Siu-Kui; Lam, Heung-Fai

2016-03-01

The identification of modal properties from field testing of civil engineering structures is becoming economically viable, thanks to the advent of modern sensor and data acquisition technology. Its demand is driven by innovative structural designs and increased performance requirements of dynamic-prone structures that call for a close cross-checking or monitoring of their dynamic properties and responses. Existing instrumentation capabilities and modal identification techniques allow structures to be tested under free vibration, forced vibration (known input) or ambient vibration (unknown broadband loading). These tests can be considered complementary rather than competing as they are based on different modeling assumptions in the identification model and have different implications on costs and benefits. Uncertainty arises naturally in the dynamic testing of structures due to measurement noise, sensor alignment error, modeling error, etc. This is especially relevant in field vibration tests because the test condition in the field environment can hardly be controlled. In this work, a Bayesian statistical approach is developed for modal identification using the free vibration response of structures. A frequency domain formulation is proposed that makes statistical inference based on the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of the data in a selected frequency band. This significantly simplifies the identification model because only the modes dominating the frequency band need to be included. It also legitimately ignores the information in the excluded frequency bands that are either irrelevant or difficult to model, thereby significantly reducing modeling error risk. The posterior probability density function (PDF) of the modal parameters is derived rigorously from modeling assumptions and Bayesian probability logic. Computational difficulties associated with calculating the posterior statistics, including the most probable value (MPV) and the posterior covariance matrix, are addressed. Fast computational algorithms for determining the MPV are proposed so that the method can be practically implemented. In the companion paper (Part II), analytical formulae are derived for the posterior covariance matrix so that it can be evaluated without resorting to finite difference method. The proposed method is verified using synthetic data. It is also applied to modal identification of full-scale field structures.

Efficient pairwise RNA structure prediction using probabilistic alignment constraints in Dynalign

PubMed Central

2007-01-01

Background Joint alignment and secondary structure prediction of two RNA sequences can significantly improve the accuracy of the structural predictions. Methods addressing this problem, however, are forced to employ constraints that reduce computation by restricting the alignments and/or structures (i.e. folds) that are permissible. In this paper, a new methodology is presented for the purpose of establishing alignment constraints based on nucleotide alignment and insertion posterior probabilities. Using a hidden Markov model, posterior probabilities of alignment and insertion are computed for all possible pairings of nucleotide positions from the two sequences. These alignment and insertion posterior probabilities are additively combined to obtain probabilities of co-incidence for nucleotide position pairs. A suitable alignment constraint is obtained by thresholding the co-incidence probabilities. The constraint is integrated with Dynalign, a free energy minimization algorithm for joint alignment and secondary structure prediction. The resulting method is benchmarked against the previous version of Dynalign and against other programs for pairwise RNA structure prediction. Results The proposed technique eliminates manual parameter selection in Dynalign and provides significant computational time savings in comparison to prior constraints in Dynalign while simultaneously providing a small improvement in the structural prediction accuracy. Savings are also realized in memory. In experiments over a 5S RNA dataset with average sequence length of approximately 120 nucleotides, the method reduces computation by a factor of 2. The method performs favorably in comparison to other programs for pairwise RNA structure prediction: yielding better accuracy, on average, and requiring significantly lesser computational resources. Conclusion Probabilistic analysis can be utilized in order to automate the determination of alignment constraints for pairwise RNA structure prediction methods in a principled fashion. These constraints can reduce the computational and memory requirements of these methods while maintaining or improving their accuracy of structural prediction. This extends the practical reach of these methods to longer length sequences. The revised Dynalign code is freely available for download. PMID:17445273

O5.01STANDARDS AND ADVANCED TESTING FOR INTRAOPERATIVE LANGUAGE AND COGNITIVE MAPPING

PubMed Central

Comi, A.; Riva, M.; Casarotti, A.; Fava, E.; Pessina, F.; Papagno, C.; Bello, L.

2014-01-01

Resection of tumors involving language pathways requires the intraoperative identification of cortical and subcortical sites mediating the various language components, which determines the extent of resection (EOR). One of the critical point is which test(s) has to be performed during subcortical mapping. Object naming is the most used one, but it may have the limit to miss other components of language such as verb naming and generation, or comprehension of words or sentences, potentially resulting in permanent post operative deficits. Patients can be submitted intraoperatively to complex batteries of tests, resulting in limited performance and high chance of intraoperative fatigue, resulting in poor mapping. We revised our experience on subcortical language mapping in a series of patients with language pathways gliomas, in which two strategies for subcortical mapping were applied: in a first group only naming was used; in the second group, object naming was prevalently used but integrated with other tests (verb naming and generation, comprehension of words or sentences, number recognition and calculation). Results were evaluated as immediate and permanent deficits by applying a large neuropsychological testing, and as EOR (on volumetric FLAIR or post Gd T1 images). The first group was composed of 221 gliomas (168 LGGs, 53 HGGs); 130 were frontal, 21 in the insula, 58 temporal, and 12 parietal. Object naming was applied for subcortical mapping in all cases; 198 patients had immediate post operative deficits. Neuropsychological evaluation at 1 months showed complete recovery in 199 patients, a mild impairment was documented in 22 patients (12 posterior temporal tumors, 6 parietal tumors, and 4 posterior insular tumors); at 3 months evaluation, 15 patients still showed a mild impairment, mainly those whose tumors were located in the posterior temporal and parietal location. EOR was total and subtotal in 48.9% and 41.5% of cases. Fatigue was observed in 12% of patients with large volume tumors. The second group was composed of 179 gliomas (155 LGGs, 24 HGGs); 61 were frontal, 38 insular, 45 temporal and 11 parietal. Object naming was used for initial mapping and for locating main subcortical tracts (IFOF, ARC, UNC); in addition, when the initial portion of these tracts was identified, other tests were applied during subcortical mapping. 165 patients had immediate post operative deficits, only 2 patients had a mild impairment at 1 and 3 months evaluation. EOR was total and subtotal in 49.6% and 47.4% of cases. Patient fatigue was shown in 9% of patients. Object naming can be safely used during subcortical mapping for resection of tumors in frontal lobe; resection of tumors in posterior temporal, insular and parietal areas requires the use of a larger battery of tests, which did not influence the chance to reach a total or subtotal resection, nor results in a higher chance of patient fatigue.

Epicardial mapping of ventricular fibrillation over the posterior descending artery and left posterior papillary muscle of the swine heart.

PubMed

Nielsen, Thomas D; Huang, Jian; Rogers, Jack M; Killingsworth, Cheryl R; Ideker, Raymond E

2009-01-01

Recent studies suggest that during ventricular fibrillation (VF) epicardial vessels may be a site of conduction block and the posterior papillary muscle (PPM) in the left ventricle (LV) may be the location of a "mother rotor." The goal of this study was to obtain evidence to support or refute these possibilities. Epicardial activation over the posterior LV and right ventricle (RV) was mapped during the first 20 s of electrically induced VF in six open-chest pigs with a 504 electrode plaque covering a 20 cm(2) area centered over the posterior descending artery (PDA). The locations of epicardial breakthrough as well as reentry clustered in time and space during VF. Spatially, reentry occurred significantly more frequently over the LV than the RV in all 48 episodes, and breakthrough clustered near the PPM (p < 0.001). Significant temporal clustering occurred in 79% of breakthrough episodes and 100% of reentry episodes. These temporal clusters occurred at different times so that there was significantly less breakthrough when reentry was present (p < 0.0001). Conduction block occurred significantly more frequently near the PDA than elsewhere. The PDA is a site of epicardial block which may contribute to VF maintenance. Epicardial breakthrough clusters near the PPM. Reentry also clusters in space but at a separate site. The fact that breakthrough and reentry cluster at different locations and at different times supports the possibility of a drifting filament at the PPM so that at times reentry is present on the surface but at other times the reentrant wavefront breaks through to the epicardium.

Evidence Accumulation and Change Rate Inference in Dynamic Environments.

PubMed

Radillo, Adrian E; Veliz-Cuba, Alan; Josić, Krešimir; Kilpatrick, Zachary P

2017-06-01

In a constantly changing world, animals must account for environmental volatility when making decisions. To appropriately discount older, irrelevant information, they need to learn the rate at which the environment changes. We develop an ideal observer model capable of inferring the present state of the environment along with its rate of change. Key to this computation is an update of the posterior probability of all possible change point counts. This computation can be challenging, as the number of possibilities grows rapidly with time. However, we show how the computations can be simplified in the continuum limit by a moment closure approximation. The resulting low-dimensional system can be used to infer the environmental state and change rate with accuracy comparable to the ideal observer. The approximate computations can be performed by a neural network model via a rate-correlation-based plasticity rule. We thus show how optimal observers accumulate evidence in changing environments and map this computation to reduced models that perform inference using plausible neural mechanisms.

Inferring probabilistic stellar rotation periods using Gaussian processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Angus, Ruth; Morton, Timothy; Aigrain, Suzanne; Foreman-Mackey, Daniel; Rajpaul, Vinesh

2018-02-01

Variability in the light curves of spotted, rotating stars is often non-sinusoidal and quasi-periodic - spots move on the stellar surface and have finite lifetimes, causing stellar flux variations to slowly shift in phase. A strictly periodic sinusoid therefore cannot accurately model a rotationally modulated stellar light curve. Physical models of stellar surfaces have many drawbacks preventing effective inference, such as highly degenerate or high-dimensional parameter spaces. In this work, we test an appropriate effective model: a Gaussian Process with a quasi-periodic covariance kernel function. This highly flexible model allows sampling of the posterior probability density function of the periodic parameter, marginalizing over the other kernel hyperparameters using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach. To test the effectiveness of this method, we infer rotation periods from 333 simulated stellar light curves, demonstrating that the Gaussian process method produces periods that are more accurate than both a sine-fitting periodogram and an autocorrelation function method. We also demonstrate that it works well on real data, by inferring rotation periods for 275 Kepler stars with previously measured periods. We provide a table of rotation periods for these and many more, altogether 1102 Kepler objects of interest, and their posterior probability density function samples. Because this method delivers posterior probability density functions, it will enable hierarchical studies involving stellar rotation, particularly those involving population modelling, such as inferring stellar ages, obliquities in exoplanet systems, or characterizing star-planet interactions. The code used to implement this method is available online.

A Bayesian Framework of Uncertainties Integration in 3D Geological Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, D.; Liu, X.

2017-12-01

3D geological model can describe complicated geological phenomena in an intuitive way while its application may be limited by uncertain factors. Great progress has been made over the years, lots of studies decompose the uncertainties of geological model to analyze separately, while ignored the comprehensive impacts of multi-source uncertainties. Great progress has been made over the years, while lots of studies ignored the comprehensive impacts of multi-source uncertainties when analyzed them item by item from each source. To evaluate the synthetical uncertainty, we choose probability distribution to quantify uncertainty, and propose a bayesian framework of uncertainties integration. With this framework, we integrated data errors, spatial randomness, and cognitive information into posterior distribution to evaluate synthetical uncertainty of geological model. Uncertainties propagate and cumulate in modeling process, the gradual integration of multi-source uncertainty is a kind of simulation of the uncertainty propagation. Bayesian inference accomplishes uncertainty updating in modeling process. Maximum entropy principle makes a good effect on estimating prior probability distribution, which ensures the prior probability distribution subjecting to constraints supplied by the given information with minimum prejudice. In the end, we obtained a posterior distribution to evaluate synthetical uncertainty of geological model. This posterior distribution represents the synthetical impact of all the uncertain factors on the spatial structure of geological model. The framework provides a solution to evaluate synthetical impact on geological model of multi-source uncertainties and a thought to study uncertainty propagation mechanism in geological modeling.

Bayesian enhancement two-stage design for single-arm phase II clinical trials with binary and time-to-event endpoints.

PubMed

Shi, Haolun; Yin, Guosheng

2018-02-21

Simon's two-stage design is one of the most commonly used methods in phase II clinical trials with binary endpoints. The design tests the null hypothesis that the response rate is less than an uninteresting level, versus the alternative hypothesis that the response rate is greater than a desirable target level. From a Bayesian perspective, we compute the posterior probabilities of the null and alternative hypotheses given that a promising result is declared in Simon's design. Our study reveals that because the frequentist hypothesis testing framework places its focus on the null hypothesis, a potentially efficacious treatment identified by rejecting the null under Simon's design could have only less than 10% posterior probability of attaining the desirable target level. Due to the indifference region between the null and alternative, rejecting the null does not necessarily mean that the drug achieves the desirable response level. To clarify such ambiguity, we propose a Bayesian enhancement two-stage (BET) design, which guarantees a high posterior probability of the response rate reaching the target level, while allowing for early termination and sample size saving in case that the drug's response rate is smaller than the clinically uninteresting level. Moreover, the BET design can be naturally adapted to accommodate survival endpoints. We conduct extensive simulation studies to examine the empirical performance of our design and present two trial examples as applications. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Reversible posterior leucoencephalopathy syndrome associated with bone marrow transplantation.

PubMed

Teive, H A; Brandi, I V; Camargo, C H; Bittencourt, M A; Bonfim, C M; Friedrich, M L; de Medeiros, C R; Werneck, L C; Pasquini, R

2001-09-01

Reversible posterior leucoencephalopathy syndrome (RPLS) has previously been described in patients who have renal insufficiency, eclampsia, hypertensive encephalopathy and patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy. The mechanism by which immunosuppressive agents can cause this syndrome is not clear, but it is probably related with cytotoxic effects of these agents on the vascular endothelium. We report eight patients who received cyclosporine A (CSA) after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation or as treatment for severe aplastic anemia (SSA) who developed posterior leucoencephalopathy. The most common signs and symptoms were seizures and headache. Neurological dysfunction occurred preceded by or concomitant with high blood pressure and some degree of acute renal failure in six patients. Computerized tomography studies showed low-density white matter lesions involving the posterior areas of cerebral hemispheres. Symptoms and neuroimaging abnormalities were reversible and improvement occurred in all patients when given lower doses of CSA or when the drug was withdrawn. RPLS may be considered an expression of CSA neurotoxicity.

Posterior semicircular canal dehiscence: value of VEMP and multidetector CT.

PubMed

Vanspauwen, R; Salembier, L; Van den Hauwe, L; Parizel, P; Wuyts, F L; Van de Heyning, P H

2006-01-01

To illustrate that posterior semicircular canal dehiscence can present similarly to superior semicircular canal dehiscence. The symptomatology initially presented as probable Menière's disease evolving into a mixed conductive hearing loss with a Carhart notch-type perceptive component suggestive of otosclerosis-type stapes fixation. A small hole stapedotomy resulted in a dead ear and a horizontal semicircular canal hypofunction. Recurrent incapacitating vertigo attacks developed. Vestibular evoked myogenic potential (VEMP) testing demonstrated intact vestibulocollic reflexes. Additional evaluation with high resolution multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) of the temporal bone showed a dehiscence of the left posterior semicircular canal. Besides superior semicircular canal dehiscence, posterior semicircular canal dehiscence has to be included in the differential diagnosis of atypical Menière's disease and/or low tone conductive hearing loss. The value of performing MDCT before otosclerosis-type surgery is stressed. VEMP might contribute to establishing the differential diagnosis.

Reliability-based design optimization using a generalized subset simulation method and posterior approximation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Yuan-Zhuo; Li, Hong-Shuang; Yao, Wei-Xing

2018-05-01

The evaluation of the probabilistic constraints in reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) problems has always been significant and challenging work, which strongly affects the performance of RBDO methods. This article deals with RBDO problems using a recently developed generalized subset simulation (GSS) method and a posterior approximation approach. The posterior approximation approach is used to transform all the probabilistic constraints into ordinary constraints as in deterministic optimization. The assessment of multiple failure probabilities required by the posterior approximation approach is achieved by GSS in a single run at all supporting points, which are selected by a proper experimental design scheme combining Sobol' sequences and Bucher's design. Sequentially, the transformed deterministic design optimization problem can be solved by optimization algorithms, for example, the sequential quadratic programming method. Three optimization problems are used to demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed method.

Cerebellar contribution to motor and cognitive performance in multiple sclerosis: An MRI sub-regional volumetric analysis.

PubMed

D'Ambrosio, Alessandro; Pagani, Elisabetta; Riccitelli, Gianna C; Colombo, Bruno; Rodegher, Mariaemma; Falini, Andrea; Comi, Giancarlo; Filippi, Massimo; Rocca, Maria A

2017-08-01

To investigate the role of cerebellar sub-regions on motor and cognitive performance in multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. Whole and sub-regional cerebellar volumes, brain volumes, T2 hyperintense lesion volumes (LV), and motor performance scores were obtained from 95 relapse-onset MS patients and 32 healthy controls (HC). MS patients also underwent an evaluation of working memory and processing speed functions. Cerebellar anterior and posterior lobes were segmented using the Spatially Unbiased Infratentorial Toolbox (SUIT) from Statistical Parametric Mapping (SPM12). Multivariate linear regression models assessed the relationship between magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures and motor/cognitive scores. Compared to HC, only secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) patients had lower cerebellar volumes (total and posterior cerebellum). In MS patients, lower anterior cerebellar volume and brain T2 LV predicted worse motor performance, whereas lower posterior cerebellar volume and brain T2 LV predicted poor cognitive performance. Global measures of brain volume and infratentorial T2 LV were not selected by the final multivariate models. Cerebellar volumetric abnormalities are likely to play an important contribution to explain motor and cognitive performance in MS patients. Consistently with functional mapping studies, cerebellar posterior-inferior volume accounted for variance in cognitive measures, whereas anterior cerebellar volume accounted for variance in motor performance, supporting the assessment of cerebellar damage at sub-regional level.

Linking stroke mortality with air pollution, income, and greenness in northwest Florida: an ecological geographical study

PubMed Central

Hu, Zhiyong; Liebens, Johan; Rao, K Ranga

2008-01-01

Background Relatively few studies have examined the association between air pollution and stroke mortality. Inconsistent and inclusive results from existing studies on air pollution and stroke justify the need to continue to investigate the linkage between stroke and air pollution. No studies have been done to investigate the association between stroke and greenness. The objective of this study was to examine if there is association of stroke with air pollution, income and greenness in northwest Florida. Results Our study used an ecological geographical approach and dasymetric mapping technique. We adopted a Bayesian hierarchical model with a convolution prior considering five census tract specific covariates. A 95% credible set which defines an interval having a 0.95 posterior probability of containing the parameter for each covariate was calculated from Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations. The 95% credible sets are (-0.286, -0.097) for household income, (0.034, 0.144) for traffic air pollution effect, (0.419, 1.495) for emission density of monitored point source polluters, (0.413, 1.522) for simple point density of point source polluters without emission data, and (-0.289,-0.031) for greenness. Household income and greenness show negative effects (the posterior densities primarily cover negative values). Air pollution covariates have positive effects (the 95% credible sets cover positive values). Conclusion High risk of stroke mortality was found in areas with low income level, high air pollution level, and low level of exposure to green space. PMID:18452609

Model-based decoding, information estimation, and change-point detection techniques for multineuron spike trains.

PubMed

Pillow, Jonathan W; Ahmadian, Yashar; Paninski, Liam

2011-01-01

One of the central problems in systems neuroscience is to understand how neural spike trains convey sensory information. Decoding methods, which provide an explicit means for reading out the information contained in neural spike responses, offer a powerful set of tools for studying the neural coding problem. Here we develop several decoding methods based on point-process neural encoding models, or forward models that predict spike responses to stimuli. These models have concave log-likelihood functions, which allow efficient maximum-likelihood model fitting and stimulus decoding. We present several applications of the encoding model framework to the problem of decoding stimulus information from population spike responses: (1) a tractable algorithm for computing the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of the stimulus, the most probable stimulus to have generated an observed single- or multiple-neuron spike train response, given some prior distribution over the stimulus; (2) a gaussian approximation to the posterior stimulus distribution that can be used to quantify the fidelity with which various stimulus features are encoded; (3) an efficient method for estimating the mutual information between the stimulus and the spike trains emitted by a neural population; and (4) a framework for the detection of change-point times (the time at which the stimulus undergoes a change in mean or variance) by marginalizing over the posterior stimulus distribution. We provide several examples illustrating the performance of these estimators with simulated and real neural data.

Modulation of cognitive control levels via manipulation of saccade trial-type probability assessed with event-related BOLD fMRI.

PubMed

Pierce, Jordan E; McDowell, Jennifer E

2016-02-01

Cognitive control supports flexible behavior adapted to meet current goals and can be modeled through investigation of saccade tasks with varying cognitive demands. Basic prosaccades (rapid glances toward a newly appearing stimulus) are supported by neural circuitry, including occipital and posterior parietal cortex, frontal and supplementary eye fields, and basal ganglia. These trials can be contrasted with complex antisaccades (glances toward the mirror image location of a stimulus), which are characterized by greater functional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) signal in the aforementioned regions and recruitment of additional regions such as dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. The current study manipulated the cognitive demands of these saccade tasks by presenting three rapid event-related runs of mixed saccades with a varying probability of antisaccade vs. prosaccade trials (25, 50, or 75%). Behavioral results showed an effect of trial-type probability on reaction time, with slower responses in runs with a high antisaccade probability. Imaging results exhibited an effect of probability in bilateral pre- and postcentral gyrus, bilateral superior temporal gyrus, and medial frontal gyrus. Additionally, the interaction between saccade trial type and probability revealed a strong probability effect for prosaccade trials, showing a linear increase in activation parallel to antisaccade probability in bilateral temporal/occipital, posterior parietal, medial frontal, and lateral prefrontal cortex. In contrast, antisaccade trials showed elevated activation across all runs. Overall, this study demonstrated that improbable performance of a typically simple prosaccade task led to augmented BOLD signal to support changing cognitive control demands, resulting in activation levels similar to the more complex antisaccade task. Copyright © 2016 the American Physiological Society.

Maximum a posteriori classification of multifrequency, multilook, synthetic aperture radar intensity data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rignot, E.; Chellappa, R.

1993-01-01

We present a maximum a posteriori (MAP) classifier for classifying multifrequency, multilook, single polarization SAR intensity data into regions or ensembles of pixels of homogeneous and similar radar backscatter characteristics. A model for the prior joint distribution of the multifrequency SAR intensity data is combined with a Markov random field for representing the interactions between region labels to obtain an expression for the posterior distribution of the region labels given the multifrequency SAR observations. The maximization of the posterior distribution yields Bayes's optimum region labeling or classification of the SAR data or its MAP estimate. The performance of the MAP classifier is evaluated by using computer-simulated multilook SAR intensity data as a function of the parameters in the classification process. Multilook SAR intensity data are shown to yield higher classification accuracies than one-look SAR complex amplitude data. The MAP classifier is extended to the case in which the radar backscatter from the remotely sensed surface varies within the SAR image because of incidence angle effects. The results obtained illustrate the practicality of the method for combining SAR intensity observations acquired at two different frequencies and for improving classification accuracy of SAR data.

The estimation of lower refractivity uncertainty from radar sea clutter using the Bayesian—MCMC method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheng, Zheng

2013-02-01

The estimation of lower atmospheric refractivity from radar sea clutter (RFC) is a complicated nonlinear optimization problem. This paper deals with the RFC problem in a Bayesian framework. It uses the unbiased Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling technique, which can provide accurate posterior probability distributions of the estimated refractivity parameters by using an electromagnetic split-step fast Fourier transform terrain parabolic equation propagation model within a Bayesian inversion framework. In contrast to the global optimization algorithm, the Bayesian—MCMC can obtain not only the approximate solutions, but also the probability distributions of the solutions, that is, uncertainty analyses of solutions. The Bayesian—MCMC algorithm is implemented on the simulation radar sea-clutter data and the real radar sea-clutter data. Reference data are assumed to be simulation data and refractivity profiles are obtained using a helicopter. The inversion algorithm is assessed (i) by comparing the estimated refractivity profiles from the assumed simulation and the helicopter sounding data; (ii) the one-dimensional (1D) and two-dimensional (2D) posterior probability distribution of solutions.

Quantitative evaluation of lumbar intervertebral disc degeneration by axial T2* mapping.

PubMed

Huang, Leitao; Liu, Yuan; Ding, Yi; Wu, Xia; Zhang, Ning; Lai, Qi; Zeng, Xianjun; Wan, Zongmiao; Dai, Min; Zhang, Bin

2017-12-01

To quantitatively evaluate the clinical value and demonstrate the potential benefits of biochemical axial T2* mapping-based grading of early stages of degenerative disc disease (DDD) using 3.0-T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in a clinical setting.Fifty patients with low back pain and 20 healthy volunteers (control) underwent standard MRI protocols including axial T2* mapping. All the intervertebral discs (IVDs) were classified morphologically. Lumbar IVDs were graded using Pfirrmann score (I to IV). The T2* values of the anterior annulus fibrosus (AF), posterior AF, and nucleus pulposus (NP) of each lumbar IVD were measured. The differences between groups were analyzed regarding specific T2* pattern at different regions of interest.The T2* values of the NP and posterior AF in the patient group were significantly lower than those in the control group (P < .01). The T2* value of the anterior AF was not significantly different between the patients and the controls (P > .05). The mean T2*values of the lumbar IVD in the patient group were significantly lower, especially the posterior AF, followed by the NP, and finally, the anterior AF. In the anterior AF, comparison of grade I with grade III and grade I with grade IV showed statistically significant differences (P = .07 and P = .08, respectively). Similarly, in the NP, comparison of grade I with grade III, grade I with grade IV, grade II with grade III, and grade II with grade IV showed statistically significant differences (P < .001). In the posterior AF, comparison of grade II with grade IV showed a statistically significant difference (P = .032). T2 values decreased linearly with increasing degeneration based on the Pfirrmann scoring system (ρ < -0.5, P < .001).Changes in the T2* value can signify early degenerative IVD diseases. Hence, T2* mapping can be used as a diagnostic tool for quantitative assessment of IVD degeneration. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.

Quantitative evaluation of lumbar intervertebral disc degeneration by axial T2∗ mapping

PubMed Central

Huang, Leitao; Liu, Yuan; Ding, Yi; Wu, Xia; Zhang, Ning; Lai, Qi; Zeng, Xianjun; Wan, Zongmiao; Dai, Min; Zhang, Bin

2017-01-01

Abstract To quantitatively evaluate the clinical value and demonstrate the potential benefits of biochemical axial T2∗ mapping-based grading of early stages of degenerative disc disease (DDD) using 3.0-T magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in a clinical setting. Fifty patients with low back pain and 20 healthy volunteers (control) underwent standard MRI protocols including axial T2∗ mapping. All the intervertebral discs (IVDs) were classified morphologically. Lumbar IVDs were graded using Pfirrmann score (I to IV). The T2∗ values of the anterior annulus fibrosus (AF), posterior AF, and nucleus pulposus (NP) of each lumbar IVD were measured. The differences between groups were analyzed regarding specific T2∗ pattern at different regions of interest. The T2∗ values of the NP and posterior AF in the patient group were significantly lower than those in the control group (P < .01). The T2∗ value of the anterior AF was not significantly different between the patients and the controls (P > .05). The mean T2∗values of the lumbar IVD in the patient group were significantly lower, especially the posterior AF, followed by the NP, and finally, the anterior AF. In the anterior AF, comparison of grade I with grade III and grade I with grade IV showed statistically significant differences (P = .07 and P = .08, respectively). Similarly, in the NP, comparison of grade I with grade III, grade I with grade IV, grade II with grade III, and grade II with grade IV showed statistically significant differences (P < .001). In the posterior AF, comparison of grade II with grade IV showed a statistically significant difference (P = .032). T2∗ values decreased linearly with increasing degeneration based on the Pfirrmann scoring system (ρ < −0.5, P < .001). Changes in the T2∗ value can signify early degenerative IVD diseases. Hence, T2∗ mapping can be used as a diagnostic tool for quantitative assessment of IVD degeneration. PMID:29390547

How Visual Is the Visual Cortex? Comparing Connectional and Functional Fingerprints between Congenitally Blind and Sighted Individuals.

PubMed

Wang, Xiaoying; Peelen, Marius V; Han, Zaizhu; He, Chenxi; Caramazza, Alfonso; Bi, Yanchao

2015-09-09

Classical animal visual deprivation studies and human neuroimaging studies have shown that visual experience plays a critical role in shaping the functionality and connectivity of the visual cortex. Interestingly, recent studies have additionally reported circumscribed regions in the visual cortex in which functional selectivity was remarkably similar in individuals with and without visual experience. Here, by directly comparing resting-state and task-based fMRI data in congenitally blind and sighted human subjects, we obtained large-scale continuous maps of the degree to which connectional and functional "fingerprints" of ventral visual cortex depend on visual experience. We found a close agreement between connectional and functional maps, pointing to a strong interdependence of connectivity and function. Visual experience (or the absence thereof) had a pronounced effect on the resting-state connectivity and functional response profile of occipital cortex and the posterior lateral fusiform gyrus. By contrast, connectional and functional fingerprints in the anterior medial and posterior lateral parts of the ventral visual cortex were statistically indistinguishable between blind and sighted individuals. These results provide a large-scale mapping of the influence of visual experience on the development of both functional and connectivity properties of visual cortex, which serves as a basis for the formulation of new hypotheses regarding the functionality and plasticity of specific subregions. Significance statement: How is the functionality and connectivity of the visual cortex shaped by visual experience? By directly comparing resting-state and task-based fMRI data in congenitally blind and sighted subjects, we obtained large-scale continuous maps of the degree to which connectional and functional "fingerprints" of ventral visual cortex depend on visual experience. In addition to revealing regions that are strongly dependent on visual experience (early visual cortex and posterior fusiform gyrus), our results showed regions in which connectional and functional patterns are highly similar in blind and sighted individuals (anterior medial and posterior lateral ventral occipital temporal cortex). These results serve as a basis for the formulation of new hypotheses regarding the functionality and plasticity of specific subregions of the visual cortex. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/3512545-15$15.00/0.

Topographic Organization for Delayed Saccades in Human Posterior Parietal Cortex

PubMed Central

Schluppeck, Denis; Glimcher, Paul; Heeger, David J.

2008-01-01

Posterior parietal cortex (PPC) is thought to play a critical role in decision making, sensory attention, motor intention, and/or working memory. Research on the PPC in non-human primates has focused on the lateral intraparietal area (LIP) in the intraparietal sulcus (IPS). Neurons in LIP respond after the onset of visual targets, just before saccades to those targets, and during the delay period in between. To study the function of posterior parietal cortex in humans, it will be crucial to have a routine and reliable method for localizing specific parietal areas in individual subjects. Here, we show that human PPC contains at least two topographically organized regions, which are candidates for the human homologue of LIP. We mapped the topographic organization of human PPC for delayed (memory guided) saccades using fMRI. Subjects were instructed to fixate centrally while a peripheral target was briefly presented. After a further 3-s delay, subjects made a saccade to the remembered target location followed by a saccade back to fixation and a 1-s inter-trial interval. Targets appeared at successive locations “around the clock” (same eccentricity, ≈30° angular steps), to produce a traveling wave of activity in areas that are topographically organized. PPC exhibited topographic organization for delayed saccades. We defined two areas in each hemisphere that contained topographic maps of the contralateral visual field. These two areas were immediately rostral to V7 as defined by standard retinotopic mapping. The two areas were separated from each other and from V7 by reversals in visual field orientation. However, we leave open the possibility that these two areas will be further subdivided in future studies. Our results demonstrate that topographic maps tile the cortex continuously from V1 well into PPC. PMID:15817644

Downregulation of the posterior medial frontal cortex prevents social conformity.

PubMed

Klucharev, Vasily; Munneke, Moniek A M; Smidts, Ale; Fernández, Guillén

2011-08-17

We often change our behavior to conform to real or imagined group pressure. Social influence on our behavior has been extensively studied in social psychology, but its neural mechanisms have remained largely unknown. Here we demonstrate that the transient downregulation of the posterior medial frontal cortex by theta-burst transcranial magnetic stimulation reduces conformity, as indicated by reduced conformal adjustments in line with group opinion. Both the extent and probability of conformal behavioral adjustments decreased significantly relative to a sham and a control stimulation over another brain area. The posterior part of the medial frontal cortex has previously been implicated in behavioral and attitudinal adjustments. Here, we provide the first interventional evidence of its critical role in social influence on human behavior.

Spectral likelihood expansions for Bayesian inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagel, Joseph B.; Sudret, Bruno

2016-03-01

A spectral approach to Bayesian inference is presented. It pursues the emulation of the posterior probability density. The starting point is a series expansion of the likelihood function in terms of orthogonal polynomials. From this spectral likelihood expansion all statistical quantities of interest can be calculated semi-analytically. The posterior is formally represented as the product of a reference density and a linear combination of polynomial basis functions. Both the model evidence and the posterior moments are related to the expansion coefficients. This formulation avoids Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation and allows one to make use of linear least squares instead. The pros and cons of spectral Bayesian inference are discussed and demonstrated on the basis of simple applications from classical statistics and inverse modeling.

Sparse-grid, reduced-basis Bayesian inversion: Nonaffine-parametric nonlinear equations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Peng, E-mail: peng@ices.utexas.edu; Schwab, Christoph, E-mail: christoph.schwab@sam.math.ethz.ch

2016-07-01

We extend the reduced basis (RB) accelerated Bayesian inversion methods for affine-parametric, linear operator equations which are considered in [16,17] to non-affine, nonlinear parametric operator equations. We generalize the analysis of sparsity of parametric forward solution maps in [20] and of Bayesian inversion in [48,49] to the fully discrete setting, including Petrov–Galerkin high-fidelity (“HiFi”) discretization of the forward maps. We develop adaptive, stochastic collocation based reduction methods for the efficient computation of reduced bases on the parametric solution manifold. The nonaffinity and nonlinearity with respect to (w.r.t.) the distributed, uncertain parameters and the unknown solution is collocated; specifically, by themore » so-called Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM). For the corresponding Bayesian inversion problems, computational efficiency is enhanced in two ways: first, expectations w.r.t. the posterior are computed by adaptive quadratures with dimension-independent convergence rates proposed in [49]; the present work generalizes [49] to account for the impact of the PG discretization in the forward maps on the convergence rates of the Quantities of Interest (QoI for short). Second, we propose to perform the Bayesian estimation only w.r.t. a parsimonious, RB approximation of the posterior density. Based on the approximation results in [49], the infinite-dimensional parametric, deterministic forward map and operator admit N-term RB and EIM approximations which converge at rates which depend only on the sparsity of the parametric forward map. In several numerical experiments, the proposed algorithms exhibit dimension-independent convergence rates which equal, at least, the currently known rate estimates for N-term approximation. We propose to accelerate Bayesian estimation by first offline construction of reduced basis surrogates of the Bayesian posterior density. The parsimonious surrogates can then be employed for online data assimilation and for Bayesian estimation. They also open a perspective for optimal experimental design.« less

Neural Mechanisms for Integrating Prior Knowledge and Likelihood in Value-Based Probabilistic Inference

PubMed Central

Ting, Chih-Chung; Yu, Chia-Chen; Maloney, Laurence T.

2015-01-01

In Bayesian decision theory, knowledge about the probabilities of possible outcomes is captured by a prior distribution and a likelihood function. The prior reflects past knowledge and the likelihood summarizes current sensory information. The two combined (integrated) form a posterior distribution that allows estimation of the probability of different possible outcomes. In this study, we investigated the neural mechanisms underlying Bayesian integration using a novel lottery decision task in which both prior knowledge and likelihood information about reward probability were systematically manipulated on a trial-by-trial basis. Consistent with Bayesian integration, as sample size increased, subjects tended to weigh likelihood information more compared with prior information. Using fMRI in humans, we found that the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) correlated with the mean of the posterior distribution, a statistic that reflects the integration of prior knowledge and likelihood of reward probability. Subsequent analysis revealed that both prior and likelihood information were represented in mPFC and that the neural representations of prior and likelihood in mPFC reflected changes in the behaviorally estimated weights assigned to these different sources of information in response to changes in the environment. Together, these results establish the role of mPFC in prior-likelihood integration and highlight its involvement in representing and integrating these distinct sources of information. PMID:25632152

Refinement of a Method for Identifying Probable Archaeological Sites from Remotely Sensed Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tilton, James C.; Comer, Douglas C.; Priebe, Carey E.; Sussman, Daniel; Chen, Li

2012-01-01

To facilitate locating archaeological sites before they are compromised or destroyed, we are developing approaches for generating maps of probable archaeological sites, through detecting subtle anomalies in vegetative cover, soil chemistry, and soil moisture by analyzing remotely sensed data from multiple sources. We previously reported some success in this effort with a statistical analysis of slope, radar, and Ikonos data (including tasseled cap and NDVI transforms) with Student's t-test. We report here on new developments in our work, performing an analysis of 8-band multispectral Worldview-2 data. The Worldview-2 analysis begins by computing medians and median absolute deviations for the pixels in various annuli around each site of interest on the 28 band difference ratios. We then use principle components analysis followed by linear discriminant analysis to train a classifier which assigns a posterior probability that a location is an archaeological site. We tested the procedure using leave-one-out cross validation with a second leave-one-out step to choose parameters on a 9,859x23,000 subset of the WorldView-2 data over the western portion of Ft. Irwin, CA, USA. We used 100 known non-sites and trained one classifier for lithic sites (n=33) and one classifier for habitation sites (n=16). We then analyzed convex combinations of scores from the Archaeological Predictive Model (APM) and our scores. We found that that the combined scores had a higher area under the ROC curve than either individual method, indicating that including WorldView-2 data in analysis improved the predictive power of the provided APM.

Retinoic acid signaling acts via Hox1 to establish the posterior limit of the pharynx in the chordate amphioxus.

PubMed

Schubert, Michael; Yu, Jr-Kai; Holland, Nicholas D; Escriva, Hector; Laudet, Vincent; Holland, Linda Z

2005-01-01

In the invertebrate chordate amphioxus, as in vertebrates, retinoic acid (RA) specifies position along the anterior/posterior axis with elevated RA signaling in the middle third of the endoderm setting the posterior limit of the pharynx. Here we show that AmphiHox1 is also expressed in the middle third of the developing amphioxus endoderm and is activated by RA signaling. Knockdown of AmphiHox1 function with an antisense morpholino oligonucleotide shows that AmphiHox1 mediates the role of RA signaling in setting the posterior limit of the pharynx by repressing expression of pharyngeal markers in the posterior foregut/midgut endoderm. The spatiotemporal expression of these endodermal genes in embryos treated with RA or the RA antagonist BMS009 indicates that Pax1/9, Pitx and Notch are probably more upstream than Otx and Nodal in the hierarchy of genes repressed by RA signaling. This work highlights the potential of amphioxus, a genomically simple, vertebrate-like invertebrate chordate, as a paradigm for understanding gene hierarchies similar to the more complex ones of vertebrates.

Annular and central heavy pigment deposition on the posterior lens capsule in the pigment dispersion syndrome: pigment deposition on the posterior lens capsule in the pigment dispersion syndrome.

PubMed

Turgut, Burak; Türkçüoğlu, Peykan; Deniz, Nurettin; Catak, Onur

2008-12-01

To report annular and central heavy pigment deposition on the posterior lens capsule in a case of pigment dispersion syndrome. Case report. A 36-year-old female with bilateral pigment dispersion syndrome presented with progressive decrease in visual acuity in the right eye over the past 1-2 years. Clinical examination revealed the typical findings of pigment dispersion syndrome including bilateral Krunkenberg spindles, iris transillumination defects, and dense trabecular meshwork pigmentation. Remarkably, annular and central dense pigmentation of the posterior lens capsule was noted in the right eye. Annular pigment deposition on the posterior lens capsule may be a rare finding associated with pigment dispersion syndrome. Such a finding suggests that there may be aqueous flow into the retrolental space in some patients with this condition. The way of central pigmentation is the entrance of aqueous to Berger's space. In our case, it is probable that spontaneous detachment of the anterior hyaloid membrane aided this entrance.

Quantitative evaluation of hyaline articular cartilage T2 maps of knee and determine the relationship of cartilage T2 values with age, gender, articular changes.

PubMed

Cağlar, E; Şahin, G; Oğur, T; Aktaş, E

2014-11-01

To identify changes in knee joint cartilage transverse relaxation values depending on the patient's age and gender and to investigate the relationship between knee joint pathologies and the transverse relaxation time. Knee MRI images of 107 symptomatic patients with various pathologic knee conditions were analyzed retrospectively. T2 values were measured at patellar cartilage, posteromedial and posterolateral femoral cartilage adjacent to the central horn of posterior meniscus. 963 measurements were done for 107 knees MRI. Relationship of T2 values with seven features including subarticular bone marrow edema, subarticular cysts, marginal osteophytes, anterior-posterior cruciate and collateral ligament tears, posterior medial and posterior lateral meniscal tears, synovial thickening and effusion were analyzed. T2 values in all three compartments were evaluated according to age and gender. A T2 value increase correlated with age was present in all three compartments measured in the subgroup with no knee joint pathology and in all patient groups. According to the ROC curve, an increase showing a statistically significant difference was present in the patient group aged over 40 compared to the patient group aged 40 and below in all patient groups. There is a statistically difference at T2 values with and without subarticular cysts, marginal osteophytes, synovial thickening and effusion. T2 relaxation time showed a statistically significant increase in the patients with a medial meniscus tear compared to those without a tear and no statistically significant difference was found in T2 relaxation times of patients with and without a posterior lateral meniscus tear. T2 cartilage mapping on MRI provides opportunity to exhibit biochemical and structural changes related with cartilage extracellular matrix without using invasive diagnostic methods.

The role of the right temporoparietal junction in attention and social interaction as revealed by ALE meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Rottschy, C.; Oberwelland, E.; Bzdok, D.; Fox, P. T.; Eickhoff, S. B.; Fink, G. R.; Konrad, K.

2016-01-01

The right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ) is frequently associated with different capacities that to shift attention to unexpected stimuli (reorienting of attention) and to understand others’ (false) mental state [theory of mind (ToM), typically represented by false belief tasks]. Competing hypotheses either suggest the rTPJ representing a unitary region involved in separate cognitive functions or consisting of subregions subserving distinct processes. We conducted activation likelihood estimation (ALE) meta-analyses to test these hypotheses. A conjunction analysis across ALE meta-analyses delineating regions consistently recruited by reorienting of attention and false belief studies revealed the anterior rTPJ, suggesting an overarching role of this specific region. Moreover, the anatomical difference analysis unravelled the posterior rTPJ as higher converging in false belief compared with reorienting of attention tasks. This supports the concept of an exclusive role of the posterior rTPJ in the social domain. These results were complemented by meta-analytic connectivity mapping (MACM) and resting-state functional connectivity (RSFC) analysis to investigate whole-brain connectivity patterns in task-constrained and task-free brain states. This allowed for detailing the functional separation of the anterior and posterior rTPJ. The combination of MACM and RSFC mapping showed that the posterior rTPJ has connectivity patterns with typical ToM regions, whereas the anterior part of rTPJ co-activates with the attentional network. Taken together, our data suggest that rTPJ contains two functionally fractionated subregions: while posterior rTPJ seems exclusively involved in the social domain, anterior rTPJ is involved in both, attention and ToM, conceivably indicating an attentional shifting role of this region. PMID:24915964

Epicardial mapping of ventricular fibrillation over the posterior descending artery and left posterior papillary muscle of the swine heart

PubMed Central

Nielsen, Thomas D.; Huang, Jian; Rogers, Jack M.; Killingsworth, Cheryl R.

2008-01-01

Background Recent studies suggest that during ventricular fibrillation (VF) epicardial vessels may be a site of conduction block and the posterior papillary muscle (PPM) in the left ventricle (LV) may be the location of a “mother rotor.” The goal of this study was to obtain evidence to support or refute these possibilities. Methods Epicardial activation over the posterior LV and right ventricle (RV) was mapped during the first 20 s of electrically induced VF in six open-chest pigs with a 504 electrode plaque covering a 20 cm2 area centered over the posterior descending artery (PDA). Results The locations of epicardial breakthrough as well as reentry clustered in time and space during VF. Spatially, reentry occurred significantly more frequently over the LV than the RV in all 48 episodes, and breakthrough clustered near the PPM (p<0.001). Significant temporal clustering occurred in 79% of breakthrough episodes and 100% of reentry episodes. These temporal clusters occurred at different times so that there was significantly less breakthrough when reentry was present (p<0.0001). Conduction block occurred significantly more frequently near the PDA than elsewhere. Conclusions The PDA is a site of epicardial block which may contribute to VF maintenance. Epicardial breakthrough clusters near the PPM. Reentry also clusters in space but at a separate site. The fact that breakthrough and reentry cluster at different locations and at different times supports the possibility of a drifting filament at the PPM so that at times reentry is present on the surface but at other times the reentrant wavefront breaks through to the epicardium. PMID:18839296

Reconciling a geophysical model to data using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm: An application to the Yellow Sea-Korean Peninsula region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasyanos, Michael E.; Franz, Gregory A.; Ramirez, Abelardo L.

2006-03-01

In an effort to build seismic models that are the most consistent with multiple data sets we have applied a new probabilistic inverse technique. This method uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to sample models from a prior distribution and test them against multiple data types to generate a posterior distribution. While computationally expensive, this approach has several advantages over deterministic models, notably the seamless reconciliation of different data types that constrain the model, the proper handling of both data and model uncertainties, and the ability to easily incorporate a variety of prior information, all in a straightforward, natural fashion. A real advantage of the technique is that it provides a more complete picture of the solution space. By mapping out the posterior probability density function, we can avoid simplistic assumptions about the model space and allow alternative solutions to be identified, compared, and ranked. Here we use this method to determine the crust and upper mantle structure of the Yellow Sea and Korean Peninsula region. The model is parameterized as a series of seven layers in a regular latitude-longitude grid, each of which is characterized by thickness and seismic parameters (Vp, Vs, and density). We use surface wave dispersion and body wave traveltime data to drive the model. We find that when properly tuned (i.e., the Markov chains have had adequate time to fully sample the model space and the inversion has converged), the technique behaves as expected. The posterior model reflects the prior information at the edge of the model where there is little or no data to constrain adjustments, but the range of acceptable models is significantly reduced in data-rich regions, producing values of sediment thickness, crustal thickness, and upper mantle velocities consistent with expectations based on knowledge of the regional tectonic setting.

Estimating cross-validatory predictive p-values with integrated importance sampling for disease mapping models.

PubMed

Li, Longhai; Feng, Cindy X; Qiu, Shi

2017-06-30

An important statistical task in disease mapping problems is to identify divergent regions with unusually high or low risk of disease. Leave-one-out cross-validatory (LOOCV) model assessment is the gold standard for estimating predictive p-values that can flag such divergent regions. However, actual LOOCV is time-consuming because one needs to rerun a Markov chain Monte Carlo analysis for each posterior distribution in which an observation is held out as a test case. This paper introduces a new method, called integrated importance sampling (iIS), for estimating LOOCV predictive p-values with only Markov chain samples drawn from the posterior based on a full data set. The key step in iIS is that we integrate away the latent variables associated the test observation with respect to their conditional distribution without reference to the actual observation. By following the general theory for importance sampling, the formula used by iIS can be proved to be equivalent to the LOOCV predictive p-value. We compare iIS and other three existing methods in the literature with two disease mapping datasets. Our empirical results show that the predictive p-values estimated with iIS are almost identical to the predictive p-values estimated with actual LOOCV and outperform those given by the existing three methods, namely, the posterior predictive checking, the ordinary importance sampling, and the ghosting method by Marshall and Spiegelhalter (2003). Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Joint Segmentation and Deformable Registration of Brain Scans Guided by a Tumor Growth Model

PubMed Central

Gooya, Ali; Pohl, Kilian M.; Bilello, Michel; Biros, George; Davatzikos, Christos

2011-01-01

This paper presents an approach for joint segmentation and deformable registration of brain scans of glioma patients to a normal atlas. The proposed method is based on the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm that incorporates a glioma growth model for atlas seeding, a process which modifies the normal atlas into one with a tumor and edema. The modified atlas is registered into the patient space and utilized for the posterior probability estimation of various tissue labels. EM iteratively refines the estimates of the registration parameters, the posterior probabilities of tissue labels and the tumor growth model parameters. We have applied this approach to 10 glioma scans acquired with four Magnetic Resonance (MR) modalities (T1, T1-CE, T2 and FLAIR ) and validated the result by comparing them to manual segmentations by clinical experts. The resulting segmentations look promising and quantitatively match well with the expert provided ground truth. PMID:21995070

Joint segmentation and deformable registration of brain scans guided by a tumor growth model.

PubMed

Gooya, Ali; Pohl, Kilian M; Bilello, Michel; Biros, George; Davatzikos, Christos

2011-01-01

This paper presents an approach for joint segmentation and deformable registration of brain scans of glioma patients to a normal atlas. The proposed method is based on the Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm that incorporates a glioma growth model for atlas seeding, a process which modifies the normal atlas into one with a tumor and edema. The modified atlas is registered into the patient space and utilized for the posterior probability estimation of various tissue labels. EM iteratively refines the estimates of the registration parameters, the posterior probabilities of tissue labels and the tumor growth model parameters. We have applied this approach to 10 glioma scans acquired with four Magnetic Resonance (MR) modalities (T1, T1-CE, T2 and FLAIR) and validated the result by comparing them to manual segmentations by clinical experts. The resulting segmentations look promising and quantitatively match well with the expert provided ground truth.

Empty sella syndrome secondary to intrasellar cyst in adolescence.

PubMed

Raiti, S; Albrink, M J; Maclaren, N K; Chadduck, W M; Gabriele, O F; Chou, S M

1976-09-01

A 15-year-old boy had growth failure and failure of sexual development. The probable onset was at age 10. Endocrine studies showed hypopituitarism with deficiency of growth hormone and follicle-stimulating hormone, an abnormal response to metyrapone, and deficiency of thyroid function. Luteinizing hormone level was in the low-normal range. Posterior pituitary function was normal. Roentgenogram showed a large sella with some destruction of the posterior clinoids. Transsphenoidal exploration was carried out. The sella was empty except for a whitish membrane; no pituitary tissue was seen. The sella was packed with muscle. Recovery was uneventful, and the patient was given replacement therapy. On histologic examination,the cyst wall showed low pseudostratified cuboidal epithelium and occasional squamous metaplasia. Hemosiderin-filled phagocytes and acinar structures were also seen. The diagnosis was probable rupture of an intrasellar epithelial cyst, leading to empty sella syndrome.

Log-Linear Models for Gene Association

PubMed Central

Hu, Jianhua; Joshi, Adarsh; Johnson, Valen E.

2009-01-01

We describe a class of log-linear models for the detection of interactions in high-dimensional genomic data. This class of models leads to a Bayesian model selection algorithm that can be applied to data that have been reduced to contingency tables using ranks of observations within subjects, and discretization of these ranks within gene/network components. Many normalization issues associated with the analysis of genomic data are thereby avoided. A prior density based on Ewens’ sampling distribution is used to restrict the number of interacting components assigned high posterior probability, and the calculation of posterior model probabilities is expedited by approximations based on the likelihood ratio statistic. Simulation studies are used to evaluate the efficiency of the resulting algorithm for known interaction structures. Finally, the algorithm is validated in a microarray study for which it was possible to obtain biological confirmation of detected interactions. PMID:19655032

Discovery and fine-mapping of adiposity loci using high density imputation of genome-wide association studies in individuals of African ancestry: African Ancestry Anthropometry Genetics Consortium.

PubMed

Ng, Maggie C Y; Graff, Mariaelisa; Lu, Yingchang; Justice, Anne E; Mudgal, Poorva; Liu, Ching-Ti; Young, Kristin; Yanek, Lisa R; Feitosa, Mary F; Wojczynski, Mary K; Rand, Kristin; Brody, Jennifer A; Cade, Brian E; Dimitrov, Latchezar; Duan, Qing; Guo, Xiuqing; Lange, Leslie A; Nalls, Michael A; Okut, Hayrettin; Tajuddin, Salman M; Tayo, Bamidele O; Vedantam, Sailaja; Bradfield, Jonathan P; Chen, Guanjie; Chen, Wei-Min; Chesi, Alessandra; Irvin, Marguerite R; Padhukasahasram, Badri; Smith, Jennifer A; Zheng, Wei; Allison, Matthew A; Ambrosone, Christine B; Bandera, Elisa V; Bartz, Traci M; Berndt, Sonja I; Bernstein, Leslie; Blot, William J; Bottinger, Erwin P; Carpten, John; Chanock, Stephen J; Chen, Yii-Der Ida; Conti, David V; Cooper, Richard S; Fornage, Myriam; Freedman, Barry I; Garcia, Melissa; Goodman, Phyllis J; Hsu, Yu-Han H; Hu, Jennifer; Huff, Chad D; Ingles, Sue A; John, Esther M; Kittles, Rick; Klein, Eric; Li, Jin; McKnight, Barbara; Nayak, Uma; Nemesure, Barbara; Ogunniyi, Adesola; Olshan, Andrew; Press, Michael F; Rohde, Rebecca; Rybicki, Benjamin A; Salako, Babatunde; Sanderson, Maureen; Shao, Yaming; Siscovick, David S; Stanford, Janet L; Stevens, Victoria L; Stram, Alex; Strom, Sara S; Vaidya, Dhananjay; Witte, John S; Yao, Jie; Zhu, Xiaofeng; Ziegler, Regina G; Zonderman, Alan B; Adeyemo, Adebowale; Ambs, Stefan; Cushman, Mary; Faul, Jessica D; Hakonarson, Hakon; Levin, Albert M; Nathanson, Katherine L; Ware, Erin B; Weir, David R; Zhao, Wei; Zhi, Degui; Arnett, Donna K; Grant, Struan F A; Kardia, Sharon L R; Oloapde, Olufunmilayo I; Rao, D C; Rotimi, Charles N; Sale, Michele M; Williams, L Keoki; Zemel, Babette S; Becker, Diane M; Borecki, Ingrid B; Evans, Michele K; Harris, Tamara B; Hirschhorn, Joel N; Li, Yun; Patel, Sanjay R; Psaty, Bruce M; Rotter, Jerome I; Wilson, James G; Bowden, Donald W; Cupples, L Adrienne; Haiman, Christopher A; Loos, Ruth J F; North, Kari E

2017-04-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified >300 loci associated with measures of adiposity including body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (adjusted for BMI, WHRadjBMI), but few have been identified through screening of the African ancestry genomes. We performed large scale meta-analyses and replications in up to 52,895 individuals for BMI and up to 23,095 individuals for WHRadjBMI from the African Ancestry Anthropometry Genetics Consortium (AAAGC) using 1000 Genomes phase 1 imputed GWAS to improve coverage of both common and low frequency variants in the low linkage disequilibrium African ancestry genomes. In the sex-combined analyses, we identified one novel locus (TCF7L2/HABP2) for WHRadjBMI and eight previously established loci at P < 5×10-8: seven for BMI, and one for WHRadjBMI in African ancestry individuals. An additional novel locus (SPRYD7/DLEU2) was identified for WHRadjBMI when combined with European GWAS. In the sex-stratified analyses, we identified three novel loci for BMI (INTS10/LPL and MLC1 in men, IRX4/IRX2 in women) and four for WHRadjBMI (SSX2IP, CASC8, PDE3B and ZDHHC1/HSD11B2 in women) in individuals of African ancestry or both African and European ancestry. For four of the novel variants, the minor allele frequency was low (<5%). In the trans-ethnic fine mapping of 47 BMI loci and 27 WHRadjBMI loci that were locus-wide significant (P < 0.05 adjusted for effective number of variants per locus) from the African ancestry sex-combined and sex-stratified analyses, 26 BMI loci and 17 WHRadjBMI loci contained ≤ 20 variants in the credible sets that jointly account for 99% posterior probability of driving the associations. The lead variants in 13 of these loci had a high probability of being causal. As compared to our previous HapMap imputed GWAS for BMI and WHRadjBMI including up to 71,412 and 27,350 African ancestry individuals, respectively, our results suggest that 1000 Genomes imputation showed modest improvement in identifying GWAS loci including low frequency variants. Trans-ethnic meta-analyses further improved fine mapping of putative causal variants in loci shared between the African and European ancestry populations.

IMAGING AND MEASUREMENT OF THE PRERETINAL SPACE IN VITREOMACULAR ADHESION AND VITREOMACULAR TRACTION BY A NEW SPECTRAL DOMAIN OPTICAL COHERENCE TOMOGRAPHY ANALYSIS.

PubMed

Stopa, Marcin; Marciniak, Elżbieta; Rakowicz, Piotr; Stankiewicz, Agnieszka; Marciniak, Tomasz; Dąbrowski, Adam

2017-10-01

To evaluate a new method for volumetric imaging of the preretinal space (also known as the subhyaloid, subcortical, or retrocortical space) and investigate differences in preretinal space volume in vitreomacular adhesion (VMA) and vitreomacular traction (VMT). Nine patients with VMA and 13 with VMT were prospectively evaluated. Automatic inner limiting membrane line segmentation, which exploits graph search theory implementation, and posterior cortical vitreous line segmentation were performed on 141 horizontal spectral domain optical coherence tomography B-scans per patient. Vertical distances (depths) between the posterior cortical vitreous and inner limiting membrane lines were calculated for each optical coherence tomography B-scan acquired. The derived distances were merged and visualized as a color depth map that represented the preretinal space between the posterior surface of the hyaloid and the anterior surface of the retina. The early treatment d retinopathy study macular map was overlaid onto final virtual maps, and preretinal space volumes were calculated for each early treatment diabetic retinopathy study map sector. Volumetric maps representing preretinal space volumes were created for each patient in the VMA and VMT groups. Preretinal space volumes were larger in all early treatment diabetic retinopathy study map macular regions in the VMT group compared with those in the VMA group. The differences reached statistical significance in all early treatment diabetic retinopathy study sectors, except for the superior outer macula and temporal outer macula where significance values were P = 0.05 and P = 0.08, respectively. Overall, the relative differences in preretinal space volumes between the VMT and VMA groups varied from 2.7 to 4.3 in inner regions and 1.8 to 2.9 in outer regions. Our study provides evidence of significant differences in preretinal space volume between eyes with VMA and those with VMT. This may be useful not only in the investigation of preretinal space properties in VMA and VMT, but also in other conditions, such as age-related macular degeneration, diabetic retinopathy, and central retinal vein occlusion.

Epicardial-endocardial breakthrough during stable atrial macroreentry: Evidence from ultra-high-resolution 3-dimensional mapping.

PubMed

Pathik, Bhupesh; Lee, Geoffrey; Sacher, Frédéric; Haïssaguerre, Michel; Jaïs, Pierre; Massoullié, Grégoire; Derval, Nicolas; Sanders, Prashanthan; Kistler, Peter; Kalman, Jonathan M

2017-08-01

Evidence for epicardial-endocardial breakthrough (EEB) is derived from mapping inferences in patients with atrial fibrillation who may also have focal activations. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether EEB could be discerned during stable right atrial (RA) macroreentry using high-density high-spatial resolution 3-dimensional mapping. Macroreentry was diagnosed using 3-dimensional mapping and entrainment. Bipolar maps were reviewed for EEB defined as (1) presence of focal endocardial activation with radial spread unaccounted for by an endocardial wavefront and (2) present with the same timing on every tachycardia cycle. The EEB site was always in proximity to a line of endocardial conduction slowing or block. Distance and conduction velocity from the line of block to the EEB site was calculated. Electrograms at EEB sites were individually analyzed for morphology and to confirm direction of activation. Entrainment was performed at EEB sites. Twenty-six patients were studied. Fourteen examples of EEB were seen: 11 at the posterior RA (4 at the superior portion of the posterior wall and 7 at the inferior section) and 1 each at the cavotricuspid isthmus postablation, RA septum, and inferolateral RA. The mean area of the EEB site was 0.6 ± 0.2 cm 2 . A mean of 79.5% ± 18.6% of unipolar electrograms at the EEB site demonstrated an rS morphology. The mean distance and conduction velocity from the line of endocardial block to the EEB site at the posterior RA was 13.6 ± 2.3 mm and 59.3 ± 12.3 cm/s, respectively. In 4 patients, entrainment demonstrated that EEB sites were within the circuit and in 1 of these patients critical to arrhythmia maintenance. Activation maps during tachycardia and coronary sinus pacing demonstrated EEB at the same anatomic site. EEB sites were demonstrated in stable atrial macroreentry supported by systematic entrainment confirmation and demonstration of the same phenomenon during pacing. Copyright © 2017 Heart Rhythm Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Topography of acute stroke in a sample of 439 right brain damaged patients.

PubMed

Sperber, Christoph; Karnath, Hans-Otto

2016-01-01

Knowledge of the typical lesion topography and volumetry is important for clinical stroke diagnosis as well as for anatomo-behavioral lesion mapping analyses. Here we used modern lesion analysis techniques to examine the naturally occurring lesion patterns caused by ischemic and by hemorrhagic infarcts in a large, representative acute stroke patient sample. Acute MR and CT imaging of 439 consecutively admitted right-hemispheric stroke patients from a well-defined catchment area suffering from ischemia (n = 367) or hemorrhage (n = 72) were normalized and mapped in reference to stereotaxic anatomical atlases. For ischemic infarcts, highest frequencies of stroke were observed in the insula, putamen, operculum and superior temporal cortex, as well as the inferior and superior occipito-frontal fascicles, superior longitudinal fascicle, uncinate fascicle, and the acoustic radiation. The maximum overlay of hemorrhages was located more posteriorly and more medially, involving posterior areas of the insula, Heschl's gyrus, and putamen. Lesion size was largest in frontal and anterior areas and lowest in subcortical and posterior areas. The large and unbiased sample of stroke patients used in the present study accumulated the different sub-patterns to identify the global topographic and volumetric pattern of right hemisphere stroke in humans.

Sparse graph regularization for robust crop mapping using hyperspectral remotely sensed imagery with very few in situ data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xue, Zhaohui; Du, Peijun; Li, Jun; Su, Hongjun

2017-02-01

The generally limited availability of training data relative to the usually high data dimension pose a great challenge to accurate classification of hyperspectral imagery, especially for identifying crops characterized with highly correlated spectra. However, traditional parametric classification models are problematic due to the need of non-singular class-specific covariance matrices. In this research, a novel sparse graph regularization (SGR) method is presented, aiming at robust crop mapping using hyperspectral imagery with very few in situ data. The core of SGR lies in propagating labels from known data to unknown, which is triggered by: (1) the fraction matrix generated for the large unknown data by using an effective sparse representation algorithm with respect to the few training data serving as the dictionary; (2) the prediction function estimated for the few training data by formulating a regularization model based on sparse graph. Then, the labels of large unknown data can be obtained by maximizing the posterior probability distribution based on the two ingredients. SGR is more discriminative, data-adaptive, robust to noise, and efficient, which is unique with regard to previously proposed approaches and has high potentials in discriminating crops, especially when facing insufficient training data and high-dimensional spectral space. The study area is located at Zhangye basin in the middle reaches of Heihe watershed, Gansu, China, where eight crop types were mapped with Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager (CASI) and Shortwave Infrared Airborne Spectrogrpahic Imager (SASI) hyperspectral data. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method significantly outperforms other traditional and state-of-the-art methods.

Voxel-wise mapping of cervical cord damage in multiple sclerosis patients with different clinical phenotypes.

PubMed

Rocca, Maria A; Valsasina, Paola; Damjanovic, Dusan; Horsfield, Mark A; Mesaros, Sarlota; Stosic-Opincal, Tatjana; Drulovic, Jelena; Filippi, Massimo

2013-01-01

To apply voxel-based methods to map the regional distribution of atrophy and T2 hyperintense lesions in the cervical cord of multiple sclerosis (MS) patients with different clinical phenotypes. Brain and cervical cord 3D T1-weighted and T2-weighted scans were acquired from 31 healthy controls (HC) and 77 MS patients (15 clinically isolated syndromes (CIS), 15 relapsing-remitting (RR), 19 benign (B), 15 primary progressive (PP) and 13 secondary progressive (SP) MS). Hyperintense cord lesions were outlined on T2-weighted scans. The T2- and 3D T1-weighted cord images were then analysed using an active surface method which created output images reformatted in planes perpendicular to the estimated cord centre line. These unfolded cervical cord images were co-registered into a common space; then smoothed binary cord masks and lesion masks underwent spatial statistic analysis (SPM8). No cord atrophy was found in CIS patients versus HC, while PPMS had significant cord atrophy. Clusters of cord atrophy were found in BMS versus RRMS, and in SPMS versus RRMS, BMS and PPMS patients, mainly involving the posterior and lateral cord segments. Cord lesion probability maps showed a significantly greater likelihood of abnormalities in RRMS, PPMS and SPMS than in CIS and BMS patients. The spatial distributions of cord atrophy and cord lesions were not correlated. In progressive MS, regional cord atrophy was correlated with clinical disability and impairment in the pyramidal system. Voxel-based assessment of cervical cord damage is feasible and may contribute to a better characterisation of the clinical heterogeneity of MS patients.

Combining Human and Machine Learning to Map Cropland in the 21st Century's Major Agricultural Frontier

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Estes, L. D.; Debats, S. R.; Caylor, K. K.; Evans, T. P.; Gower, D.; McRitchie, D.; Searchinger, T.; Thompson, D. R.; Wood, E. F.; Zeng, L.

2016-12-01

In the coming decades, large areas of new cropland will be created to meet the world's rapidly growing food demands. Much of this new cropland will be in sub-Saharan Africa, where food needs will increase most and the area of remaining potential farmland is greatest. If we are to understand the impacts of global change, it is critical to accurately identify Africa's existing croplands and how they are changing. Yet the continent's smallholder-dominated agricultural systems are unusually challenging for remote sensing analyses, making accurate area estimates difficult to obtain, let alone important details related to field size and geometry. Fortunately, the rapidly growing archives of moderate to high-resolution satellite imagery hosted on open servers now offer an unprecedented opportunity to improve landcover maps. We present a system that integrates two critical components needed to capitalize on this opportunity: 1) human image interpretation and 2) machine learning (ML). Human judgment is needed to accurately delineate training sites within noisy imagery and a highly variable cover type, while ML provides the ability to scale and to interpret large feature spaces that defy human comprehension. Because large amounts of training data are needed (a major impediment for analysts), we use a crowdsourcing platform that connects amazon.com's Mechanical Turk service to satellite imagery hosted on open image servers. Workers map visible fields at pre-assigned sites, and are paid according to their mapping accuracy. Initial tests show overall high map accuracy and mapping rates >1800 km2/hour. The ML classifier uses random forests and randomized quasi-exhaustive feature selection, and is highly effective in classifying diverse agricultural types in southern Africa (AUC > 0.9). We connect the ML and crowdsourcing components to make an interactive learning framework. The ML algorithm performs an initial classification using a first batch of crowd-sourced maps, using thresholds of posterior probabilities to segregate sub-images classified with high or low confidence. Workers are then directed to collect new training data in low confidence sub-images, after which classification is repeated and re-assessed, and the entire process iterated until maximum possible accuracy is realized.

Occurrence of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis and Neospora caninum in Alberta cow-calf operations.

PubMed

Pruvot, M; Kutz, S; Barkema, H W; De Buck, J; Orsel, K

2014-11-01

Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) and Neospora caninum (NC) are two pathogens causing important production limiting diseases in the cattle industry. Significant impacts of MAP and NC have been reported on dairy cattle herds, but little is known about the importance, risk factors and transmission patterns in western Canadian cow-calf herds. In this cross-sectional study, the prevalence of MAP and NC infection in southwest Alberta cow-calf herds was estimated, risk factors for NC were identified, and the reproductive impacts of the two pathogens were assessed. Blood and fecal samples were collected from 840 cows on 28 cow-calf operations. Individual cow and herd management information was collected by self-administered questionnaires and one-on-one interviews. Bayesian estimates of the true prevalence of MAP and NC were computed, and bivariable and multivariable statistical analysis were done to assess the association between the NC serological status and ranch management risk factors, and the clinical effects of the two pathogens. Bayesian estimates of true prevalence indicated that 20% (95% probability interval: 8-38%) of herds had at least one MAP-positive cow, with a within-herd prevalence in positive herds of 22% (8-45%). From the Bayesian posterior distributions of NC prevalence, the median herd-level prevalence was 66% (33-95%) with 10% (4-21%) cow-level prevalence in positive herds. Multivariable analysis indicated that introducing purchased animals in the herd might increase the risk of NC. The negative association of NC with proper carcass disposal and presence of horses on ranch (possibly in relation to herd monitoring and guarding activities), may suggest the importance of wild carnivores in the dynamics of this pathogen in the study area. We also observed an association between MAP and NC serological status and the number of abortions. Additional studies should be done to further examine specific risk factors for MAP and NC, assess the consequences on the reproductive performances in cow-calf herds, and evaluate the overall impact of these pathogens on cow-calf operations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The organization of the human cerebellum estimated by intrinsic functional connectivity

PubMed Central

Krienen, Fenna M.; Castellanos, Angela; Diaz, Julio C.; Yeo, B. T. Thomas

2011-01-01

The cerebral cortex communicates with the cerebellum via polysynaptic circuits. Separate regions of the cerebellum are connected to distinct cerebral areas, forming a complex topography. In this study we explored the organization of cerebrocerebellar circuits in the human using resting-state functional connectivity MRI (fcMRI). Data from 1,000 subjects were registered using nonlinear deformation of the cerebellum in combination with surface-based alignment of the cerebral cortex. The foot, hand, and tongue representations were localized in subjects performing movements. fcMRI maps derived from seed regions placed in different parts of the motor body representation yielded the expected inverted map of somatomotor topography in the anterior lobe and the upright map in the posterior lobe. Next, we mapped the complete topography of the cerebellum by estimating the principal cerebral target for each point in the cerebellum in a discovery sample of 500 subjects and replicated the topography in 500 independent subjects. The majority of the human cerebellum maps to association areas. Quantitative analysis of 17 distinct cerebral networks revealed that the extent of the cerebellum dedicated to each network is proportional to the network's extent in the cerebrum with a few exceptions, including primary visual cortex, which is not represented in the cerebellum. Like somatomotor representations, cerebellar regions linked to association cortex have separate anterior and posterior representations that are oriented as mirror images of one another. The orderly topography of the representations suggests that the cerebellum possesses at least two large, homotopic maps of the full cerebrum and possibly a smaller third map. PMID:21795627

Assessing future vent opening locations at the Somma-Vesuvio volcanic complex: 2. Probability maps of the caldera for a future Plinian/sub-Plinian event with uncertainty quantification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadini, A.; Bevilacqua, A.; Neri, A.; Cioni, R.; Aspinall, W. P.; Bisson, M.; Isaia, R.; Mazzarini, F.; Valentine, G. A.; Vitale, S.; Baxter, P. J.; Bertagnini, A.; Cerminara, M.; de Michieli Vitturi, M.; Di Roberto, A.; Engwell, S.; Esposti Ongaro, T.; Flandoli, F.; Pistolesi, M.

2017-06-01

In this study, we combine reconstructions of volcanological data sets and inputs from a structured expert judgment to produce a first long-term probability map for vent opening location for the next Plinian or sub-Plinian eruption of Somma-Vesuvio. In the past, the volcano has exhibited significant spatial variability in vent location; this can exert a significant control on where hazards materialize (particularly of pyroclastic density currents). The new vent opening probability mapping has been performed through (i) development of spatial probability density maps with Gaussian kernel functions for different data sets and (ii) weighted linear combination of these spatial density maps. The epistemic uncertainties affecting these data sets were quantified explicitly with expert judgments and implemented following a doubly stochastic approach. Various elicitation pooling metrics and subgroupings of experts and target questions were tested to evaluate the robustness of outcomes. Our findings indicate that (a) Somma-Vesuvio vent opening probabilities are distributed inside the whole caldera, with a peak corresponding to the area of the present crater, but with more than 50% probability that the next vent could open elsewhere within the caldera; (b) there is a mean probability of about 30% that the next vent will open west of the present edifice; (c) there is a mean probability of about 9.5% that the next medium-large eruption will enlarge the present Somma-Vesuvio caldera, and (d) there is a nonnegligible probability (mean value of 6-10%) that the next Plinian or sub-Plinian eruption will have its initial vent opening outside the present Somma-Vesuvio caldera.

United States Geological Survey fire science: fire danger monitoring and forecasting

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eidenshink, Jeff C.; Howard, Stephen M.

2012-01-01

Each day, the U.S. Geological Survey produces 7-day forecasts for all Federal lands of the distributions of number of ignitions, number of fires above a given size, and conditional probabilities of fires growing larger than a specified size. The large fire probability map is an estimate of the likelihood that ignitions will become large fires. The large fire forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on federal lands exceeding 100 acres in the forthcoming week. The ignition forecast map is a probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land greater than 1 acre in the forthcoming week. The extreme event forecast is the probability estimate of the number of fires on Federal land that may exceed 5,000 acres in the forthcoming week.

Tsunami probability in the Caribbean Region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parsons, T.; Geist, E.L.

2008-01-01

We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ???500-year empirical record compiled by O'Loughlin and Lander (2003) was used to calculate an empirical tsunami probability map, the first of three constructed for this study. However, it is unclear whether the 500-year record is complete, so we conducted a seismic moment-balance exercise using a finite-element model of the Caribbean-North American plate boundaries and the earthquake catalog, and found that moment could be balanced if the seismic coupling coefficient is c = 0.32. Modeled moment release was therefore used to generate synthetic earthquake sequences to calculate 50 tsunami runup scenarios for 500-year periods. We made a second probability map from numerically-calculated runup rates in each cell. Differences between the first two probability maps based on empirical and numerical-modeled rates suggest that each captured different aspects of tsunami generation; the empirical model may be deficient in primary plate-boundary events, whereas numerical model rates lack backarc fault and landslide sources. We thus prepared a third probability map using Bayesian likelihood functions derived from the empirical and numerical rate models and their attendant uncertainty to weight a range of rates at each 20 km by 20 km coastal cell. Our best-estimate map gives a range of 30-year runup probability from 0 - 30% regionally. ?? irkhaueser 2008.

Validation and reliability of the sex estimation of the human os coxae using freely available DSP2 software for bioarchaeology and forensic anthropology.

PubMed

Brůžek, Jaroslav; Santos, Frédéric; Dutailly, Bruno; Murail, Pascal; Cunha, Eugenia

2017-10-01

A new tool for skeletal sex estimation based on measurements of the human os coxae is presented using skeletons from a metapopulation of identified adult individuals from twelve independent population samples. For reliable sex estimation, a posterior probability greater than 0.95 was considered to be the classification threshold: below this value, estimates are considered indeterminate. By providing free software, we aim to develop an even more disseminated method for sex estimation. Ten metric variables collected from 2,040 ossa coxa of adult subjects of known sex were recorded between 1986 and 2002 (reference sample). To test both the validity and reliability, a target sample consisting of two series of adult ossa coxa of known sex (n = 623) was used. The DSP2 software (Diagnose Sexuelle Probabiliste v2) is based on Linear Discriminant Analysis, and the posterior probabilities are calculated using an R script. For the reference sample, any combination of four dimensions provides a correct sex estimate in at least 99% of cases. The percentage of individuals for whom sex can be estimated depends on the number of dimensions; for all ten variables it is higher than 90%. Those results are confirmed in the target sample. Our posterior probability threshold of 0.95 for sex estimate corresponds to the traditional sectioning point used in osteological studies. DSP2 software is replacing the former version that should not be used anymore. DSP2 is a robust and reliable technique for sexing adult os coxae, and is also user friendly. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Bayesian feature selection for high-dimensional linear regression via the Ising approximation with applications to genomics.

PubMed

Fisher, Charles K; Mehta, Pankaj

2015-06-01

Feature selection, identifying a subset of variables that are relevant for predicting a response, is an important and challenging component of many methods in statistics and machine learning. Feature selection is especially difficult and computationally intensive when the number of variables approaches or exceeds the number of samples, as is often the case for many genomic datasets. Here, we introduce a new approach--the Bayesian Ising Approximation (BIA)-to rapidly calculate posterior probabilities for feature relevance in L2 penalized linear regression. In the regime where the regression problem is strongly regularized by the prior, we show that computing the marginal posterior probabilities for features is equivalent to computing the magnetizations of an Ising model with weak couplings. Using a mean field approximation, we show it is possible to rapidly compute the feature selection path described by the posterior probabilities as a function of the L2 penalty. We present simulations and analytical results illustrating the accuracy of the BIA on some simple regression problems. Finally, we demonstrate the applicability of the BIA to high-dimensional regression by analyzing a gene expression dataset with nearly 30 000 features. These results also highlight the impact of correlations between features on Bayesian feature selection. An implementation of the BIA in C++, along with data for reproducing our gene expression analyses, are freely available at http://physics.bu.edu/∼pankajm/BIACode. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Probability of detecting atrazine/desethyl-atrazine and elevated concentrations of nitrate plus nitrate as nitrogen in ground water in the Idaho part of the western Snake River Plain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donato, Mary M.

2000-01-01

As ground water continues to provide an ever-growing proportion of Idaho?s drinking water, concerns about the quality of that resource are increasing. Pesticides (most commonly, atrazine/desethyl-atrazine, hereafter referred to as atrazine) and nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen (hereafter referred to as nitrate) have been detected in many aquifers in the State. To provide a sound hydrogeologic basis for atrazine and nitrate management in southern Idaho—the largest region of land and water use in the State—the U.S. Geological Survey produced maps showing the probability of detecting these contaminants in ground water in the upper Snake River Basin (published in a 1998 report) and the western Snake River Plain (published in this report). The atrazine probability map for the western Snake River Plain was constructed by overlaying ground-water quality data with hydrogeologic and anthropogenic data in a geographic information system (GIS). A data set was produced in which each well had corresponding information on land use, geology, precipitation, soil characteristics, regional depth to ground water, well depth, water level, and atrazine use. These data were analyzed by logistic regression using a statistical software package. Several preliminary multivariate models were developed and those that best predicted the detection of atrazine were selected. The multivariate models then were entered into a GIS and the probability maps were produced. Land use, precipitation, soil hydrologic group, and well depth were significantly correlated with atrazine detections in the western Snake River Plain. These variables also were important in the 1998 probability study of the upper Snake River Basin. The effectiveness of the probability models for atrazine might be improved if more detailed data were available for atrazine application. A preliminary atrazine probability map for the entire Snake River Plain in Idaho, based on a data set representing that region, also was produced. In areas where this map overlaps the 1998 map of the upper Snake River Basin, the two maps show broadly similar probabilities of detecting atrazine. Logistic regression also was used to develop a preliminary statistical model that predicts the probability of detecting elevated nitrate in the western Snake River Plain. A nitrate probability map was produced from this model. Results showed that elevated nitrate concentrations were correlated with land use, soil organic content, well depth, and water level. Detailed information on nitrate input, specifically fertilizer application, might have improved the effectiveness of this model.

3D reconstruction and heat map of porcine recurrent laryngeal nerve anatomy: branching and spatial location.

PubMed

Mason, Nena Lundgreen; Christiansen, Marc; Wisco, Jonathan J

2015-01-01

Recurrent laryngeal nerve palsy is a common post-operative complication of many head and neck surgeries. Theoretically, the best treatment to restore partial function to a damaged recurrent laryngeal nerve would be reinnervation of the posterior cricoarytenoid muscle via anastomosis of the recurrent laryngeal and phrenic nerves. The pig is an excellent model of human laryngeal anatomy and physiology but a more thorough knowledge of porcine laryngeal anatomy is necessary before the pig can be used to improve existing surgical strategies, and develop new ones. This study first identifies the three most common recurrent laryngeal nerve branching patterns in the pig. Secondly, this study presents three-dimensional renderings of the porcine larynx onto which the recurrent laryngeal nerve patterns are accurately mapped. Lastly, heat maps are presented to display the spatial variability of recurrent laryngeal nerve trunks and primary branches on each side of 15 subjects (28 specimens). We intend for this study to be useful to groups using a porcine model to study posterior cricoarytenoid muscle reinnervation techniques.

Selective Vulnerability of Cortical Border Zone to Microembolic Infarct.

PubMed

Bergui, Mauro; Castagno, Davide; D'Agata, Federico; Cicerale, Alessandro; Anselmino, Matteo; Maria Ferrio, Federica; Giustetto, Carla; Halimi, Franck; Scaglione, Marco; Gaita, Fiorenzo

2015-07-01

Endovascular procedures, including atrial fibrillation transcatheter ablation, may cause microembolization of brain arteries. Microemboli often cause small sized and clinically silent cerebral ischemias (SCI). These lesions are clearly visible on early postoperative magnetic resonance diffusion-weighted images. We analyzed SCI distribution in a population of patients submitted to atrial fibrillation transcatheter ablation. Seventy-eight of 927 consecutive patients submitted to atrial fibrillation transcatheter ablation were found positive for acute SCI on a postoperative magnetic resonance. SCI were identified and marked, and their coordinates were transformed from native space into the International Consortium for Brain Mapping/Montreal Neurological Institute space. We then computed the voxel-wise probability distribution map of the SCI using the activation likelihood estimation approach. SCI were more commonly found in the cortex. In supratentorial regions, SCI selectively involved cortical border zone between anterior, middle, and posterior cerebral arteries; in infratentorial regions, distal territory of posteroinferior cerebellar artery. Possible explanations include selective embolization, linked to the vascular anatomy of pial arteries supplying those territories, reduced clearance of emboli in a relatively hypoperfused zone, or a combination of both. This particular distribution of lesions has been reported in both animal models and in patients with microemboli of different sources. A selective vulnerability of cortical border zone to microemboli occurring during atrial fibrillation transcatheter ablation was observed. We hypothesize that such selectivity may apply to microemboli of different sources. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

[Spatial analysis of mortality from cardiovascular diseases in Madrid City, Spain].

PubMed

Gómez-Barroso, Diana; Prieto-Flores, María-Eugenia; Mellado San Gabino, Ana; Moreno Jiménez, Antonio

2015-01-01

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death worldwide, but its spatial distribution is not homogeneous. The objective of this study is to analyze the spatial pattern of mortality from these diseases for men and women, in the populated urban area (AUP) of the municipality of Madrid, and to identify spatial aggregations. An ecological study was carried out by census tract, for men and women in 2010. Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR), Relative Risk Smoothing (RRS) and Posterior Probability (PP) were calculated to consider the spatial pattern of the disease. To identify spatial clusters the Moran index (Moran I) and the Local Index of Spatial Autocorrelation (LISA) were used. The results were mapped. SMR higher than 1.1 was observed mainly in central areas among men and in peripheral areas among women. The PP that RRS was higher than 1 surpassed 0.8 in the center and in the periphery, in both men and women. Moran's I was 0.04 for men and 0.03 for women (p <0.05 in both cases). Sex differences were observed in the spatial distribution of mortality cases. RME RRS and PP maps showed a heterogeneous pattern in men, whereas in women a clearer pattern was detected, with a relatively higher risk in peripheral areas of the AUP. The LISA method showed similar patterns to those previously observed.

Surgical options for lumbosacral fusion: biomechanical stability, advantage, disadvantage and affecting factors in selecting options.

PubMed

Yoshihara, Hiroyuki

2014-07-01

Numerous surgical procedures and instrumentation techniques for lumbosacral fusion (LSF) have been developed. This is probably because of its high mechanical demand and unique anatomy. Surgical options include anterior column support (ACS) and posterior stabilization procedures. Biomechanical studies have been performed to verify the stability of those options. The options have their own advantage but also disadvantage aspects. This review article reports the surgical options for lumbosacral fusion, their biomechanical stability, advantages/disadvantages, and affecting factors in option selection. Review of literature. LSF has lots of options both for ACS and posterior stabilization procedures. Combination of posterior stabilization procedures is an option. Furthermore, combinations of ACS and posterior stabilization procedures are other options. It is difficult to make a recommendation or treatment algorithm of LSF from the current literature. However, it is important to know all aspects of the options and decision-making of surgical options for LSF needs to be tailored for each patient, considering factors such as biomechanical stress and osteoporosis.

Segmentation and automated measurement of chronic wound images: probability map approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmad Fauzi, Mohammad Faizal; Khansa, Ibrahim; Catignani, Karen; Gordillo, Gayle; Sen, Chandan K.; Gurcan, Metin N.

2014-03-01

estimated 6.5 million patients in the United States are affected by chronic wounds, with more than 25 billion US dollars and countless hours spent annually for all aspects of chronic wound care. There is need to develop software tools to analyze wound images that characterize wound tissue composition, measure their size, and monitor changes over time. This process, when done manually, is time-consuming and subject to intra- and inter-reader variability. In this paper, we propose a method that can characterize chronic wounds containing granulation, slough and eschar tissues. First, we generate a Red-Yellow-Black-White (RYKW) probability map, which then guides the region growing segmentation process. The red, yellow and black probability maps are designed to handle the granulation, slough and eschar tissues, respectively found in wound tissues, while the white probability map is designed to detect the white label card for measurement calibration purpose. The innovative aspects of this work include: 1) Definition of a wound characteristics specific probability map for segmentation, 2) Computationally efficient regions growing on 4D map; 3) Auto-calibration of measurements with the content of the image. The method was applied on 30 wound images provided by the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center, with the ground truth independently generated by the consensus of two clinicians. While the inter-reader agreement between the readers is 85.5%, the computer achieves an accuracy of 80%.

Quantitative in vivo MRI evaluation of lumbar facet joints and intervertebral discs using axial T2 mapping.

PubMed

Stelzeneder, David; Messner, Alina; Vlychou, Marianna; Welsch, Goetz H; Scheurecker, Georg; Goed, Sabine; Pieber, Karin; Pflueger, Verena; Friedrich, Klaus M; Trattnig, Siegfried

2011-11-01

To assess the feasibility of T2 mapping of lumbar facet joints and intervertebral discs in a single imaging slab and to compare the findings with morphological grading. Sixty lumbar spine segments from 10 low back pain patients and 5 healthy volunteers were examined by axial T2 mapping and morphological MRI at 3.0 Tesla. Regions of interest were drawn on a single slice for the facet joints and the intervertebral discs (nucleus pulposus, anterior and posterior annulus fibrosus). The Weishaupt grading was used for facet joints and the Pfirrmann score was used for morphological disc grading ("normal" vs. "abnormal" discs). The inter-rater agreement was excellent for the facet joint T2 evaluation (r = 0.85), but poor for the morphological Weishaupt grading (kappa = 0.15). The preliminary results show similar facet joint T2 values in segments with normal and abnormal Pfirrmann scores. There was no difference in mean T2 values between facet joints in different Weishaupt grading groups. Facet joint T2 values showed a weak correlation with T2 values of the posterior annulus (r = 0.32) This study demonstrates the feasibility of a combined T2 mapping approach for the facet joints and intervertebral discs using a single axial slab.

Poster error probability in the Mu-11 Sequential Ranging System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coyle, C. W.

1981-01-01

An expression is derived for the posterior error probability in the Mu-2 Sequential Ranging System. An algorithm is developed which closely bounds the exact answer and can be implemented in the machine software. A computer simulation is provided to illustrate the improved level of confidence in a ranging acquisition using this figure of merit as compared to that using only the prior probabilities. In a simulation of 20,000 acquisitions with an experimentally determined threshold setting, the algorithm detected 90% of the actual errors and made false indication of errors on 0.2% of the acquisitions.

Vertebral artery ostium atherosclerotic plaque as a potential source of posterior circulation ischemic stroke: result from borgess medical center vertebral artery ostium stenting registry.

PubMed

Al-Ali, Firas; Barrow, Tom; Duan, Li; Jefferson, Anne; Louis, Susan; Luke, Kim; Major, Kevin; Smoker, Sandy; Walker, Sarah; Yacobozzi, Margaret

2011-09-01

Although atherosclerotic plaque in the carotid and coronary arteries is accepted as a cause of ischemia, vertebral artery ostium (VAO) atherosclerotic plaque is not widely recognized as a source of ischemic stroke. We seek to demonstrate its implication in some posterior circulation ischemia. This is a nonrandomized, prospective, single-center registry on consecutive patients presenting with posterior circulation ischemia who underwent VAO stenting for significant atherosclerotic stenosis. Diagnostic evaluation and imaging studies determined the likelihood of this lesion as the symptom source (highly likely, probable, or highly unlikely). Patients were divided into 4 groups in decreasing order of severity of clinical presentation (ischemic stroke, TIA then stroke, TIA, asymptomatic), which were compared with the morphological and hemodynamic characteristics of the VAO plaque. Clinical follow-up 1 year after stenting assessed symptom recurrence. One hundred fourteen patients underwent stenting of 127 lesions; 35% of the lesions were highly likely the source of symptoms, 53% were probable, and 12% were highly unlikely. Clinical presentation correlated directly with plaque irregularity and presence of clot at the VAO, as did bilateral lesions and presence of tandem lesions. Symptom recurrence at 1 year was 2%. Thirty-five percent of the lesions were highly likely the source of the symptoms. A direct relationship between some morphological/hemodynamic characteristics and the severity of clinical presentation was also found. Finally, patients had a very low rate of symptom recurrence after treatment. These 3 observations point strongly to VAO plaque as a potential source of some posterior circulation stroke.

Resolving response, decision, and strategic control: evidence for a functional topography in dorsomedial prefrontal cortex.

PubMed

Venkatraman, Vinod; Rosati, Alexandra G; Taren, Adrienne A; Huettel, Scott A

2009-10-21

The dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC) plays a central role in aspects of cognitive control and decision making. Here, we provide evidence for an anterior-to-posterior topography within the DMPFC using tasks that evoke three distinct forms of control demands--response, decision, and strategic--each of which could be mapped onto independent behavioral data. Specifically, we identify three spatially distinct regions within the DMPFC: a posterior region associated with control demands evoked by multiple incompatible responses, a middle region associated with control demands evoked by the relative desirability of decision options, and an anterior region that predicts control demands related to deviations from an individual's preferred decision-making strategy. These results provide new insight into the functional organization of DMPFC and suggest how recent controversies about its role in complex decision making and response mapping can be reconciled.

Resolving Response, Decision, and Strategic Control: Evidence for a Functional Topography in Dorsomedial Prefrontal Cortex

PubMed Central

Venkatraman, Vinod; Rosati, Alexandra G.; Taren, Adrienne A.; Huettel, Scott A.

2009-01-01

The dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC) plays a central role in aspects of cognitive control and decision making. Here, we provide evidence for an anterior-to-posterior topography within the DMPFC using tasks that evoke three distinct forms of control demands – response, decision, and strategic – each of which could be mapped on to independent behavioral data. Specifically, we identify three spatially distinct regions within the DMPFC: a posterior region associated with control demands evoked by multiple incompatible responses, a middle region associated with control demands evoked by the relative desirability of decision options, and an anterior region that predicts control demands related to deviations from an individual's preferred decision-making strategy. These results provide new insight into the functional organization of DMPFC, and suggest how recent controversies about its role in complex decision making and response mapping can be reconciled. PMID:19846703

Bayesian structural inference for hidden processes.

PubMed

Strelioff, Christopher C; Crutchfield, James P

2014-04-01

We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian structural inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar hidden Markov model (uHMM) topologies for inference of process structure from a data series. We employ a recently developed exact enumeration of topological ε-machines. (A sequel then removes the topological restriction.) This subset of the uHMM topologies has the added benefit that inferred models are guaranteed to be ε-machines, irrespective of estimated transition probabilities. Properties of ε-machines and uHMMs allow for the derivation of analytic expressions for estimating transition probabilities, inferring start states, and comparing the posterior probability of candidate model topologies, despite process internal structure being only indirectly present in data. We demonstrate BSI's effectiveness in estimating a process's randomness, as reflected by the Shannon entropy rate, and its structure, as quantified by the statistical complexity. We also compare using the posterior distribution over candidate models and the single, maximum a posteriori model for point estimation and show that the former more accurately reflects uncertainty in estimated values. We apply BSI to in-class examples of finite- and infinite-order Markov processes, as well to an out-of-class, infinite-state hidden process.

Bayesian structural inference for hidden processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strelioff, Christopher C.; Crutchfield, James P.

2014-04-01

We introduce a Bayesian approach to discovering patterns in structurally complex processes. The proposed method of Bayesian structural inference (BSI) relies on a set of candidate unifilar hidden Markov model (uHMM) topologies for inference of process structure from a data series. We employ a recently developed exact enumeration of topological ɛ-machines. (A sequel then removes the topological restriction.) This subset of the uHMM topologies has the added benefit that inferred models are guaranteed to be ɛ-machines, irrespective of estimated transition probabilities. Properties of ɛ-machines and uHMMs allow for the derivation of analytic expressions for estimating transition probabilities, inferring start states, and comparing the posterior probability of candidate model topologies, despite process internal structure being only indirectly present in data. We demonstrate BSI's effectiveness in estimating a process's randomness, as reflected by the Shannon entropy rate, and its structure, as quantified by the statistical complexity. We also compare using the posterior distribution over candidate models and the single, maximum a posteriori model for point estimation and show that the former more accurately reflects uncertainty in estimated values. We apply BSI to in-class examples of finite- and infinite-order Markov processes, as well to an out-of-class, infinite-state hidden process.

Calibration of the DRASTIC ground water vulnerability mapping method

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupert, M.G.

2001-01-01

Ground water vulnerability maps developed using the DRASTIC method have been produced in many parts of the world. Comparisons of those maps with actual ground water quality data have shown that the DRASTIC method is typically a poor predictor of ground water contamination. This study significantly improved the effectiveness of a modified DRASTIC ground water vulnerability map by calibrating the point rating schemes to actual ground water quality data by using nonparametric statistical techniques and a geographic information system. Calibration was performed by comparing data on nitrite plus nitrate as nitrogen (NO2 + NO3-N) concentrations in ground water to land-use, soils, and depth to first-encountered ground water data. These comparisons showed clear statistical differences between NO2 + NO3-N concentrations and the various categories. Ground water probability point ratings for NO2 + NO3-N contamination were developed from the results of these comparisons, and a probability map was produced. This ground water probability map was then correlated with an independent set of NO2 + NO3-N data to demonstrate its effectiveness in predicting elevated NO2 + NO3-N concentrations in ground water. This correlation demonstrated that the probability map was effective, but a vulnerability map produced with the uncalibrated DRASTIC method in the same area and using the same data layers was not effective. Considerable time and expense have been outlaid to develop ground water vulnerability maps with the DRASTIC method. This study demonstrates a cost-effective method to improve and verify the effectiveness of ground water vulnerability maps.

Assessment of modifications in thickness, curvatures, and volume upon the cornea caused by disposable soft contact lens wear.

PubMed

Del Águila-Carrasco, Antonio J; Domínguez-Vicent, Alberto; Pérez-Vives, Cari; Ferrer-Blasco, Teresa; Montés-Micó, Robert

2015-01-01

To assess the effect of different disposable soft contact lenses on several corneal parameters-thickness, anterior and posterior curvature, and volume-by means of a Scheimpflug imaging-based device (Pentacam HR). Diurnal variations of these parameters were taken into account. Twenty-one young, healthy subjects wore 4 different types of daily disposable soft contact lenses on 4 different days: Dailies AquaComfort Plus, SofLens, Dailies Total1, and Acuvue TruEye. The lenses had different material and water content. Pachymetry and curvature maps and corneal volume values were obtained using the Pentacam HR twice a day: one before putting the lens on and one after an 8-hour period of contact lens wear. Measurements were also taken without any contact lenses being worn. Regarding corneal thickness, the lens with the most similar behavior to the naked eye scenario was the Dailies Total1, causing a thickening of 0.2 ± 0.1% in the central zone and 0.6 ± 0.2% in the periphery. All 4 lenses caused a slight but not significant flattening in the anterior corneal curvature, whereas the posterior corneal curvature only experienced a significant but small steepening with the SofLens. The use of these lenses increased corneal volume slightly. Variations in corneal parameters seem to depend on the type of contact lens used (material, oxygen transmissibility, water content). However, the magnitude of the changes introduced by the use of soft contact lenses over the 8-hour period was small and probably not large enough to influence either visual acuity or comfort.

Development of a program for toric intraocular lens calculation considering posterior corneal astigmatism, incision-induced posterior corneal astigmatism, and effective lens position.

PubMed

Eom, Youngsub; Ryu, Dongok; Kim, Dae Wook; Yang, Seul Ki; Song, Jong Suk; Kim, Sug-Whan; Kim, Hyo Myung

2016-10-01

To evaluate the toric intraocular lens (IOL) calculation considering posterior corneal astigmatism, incision-induced posterior corneal astigmatism, and effective lens position (ELP). Two thousand samples of corneal parameters with keratometric astigmatism ≥ 1.0 D were obtained using bootstrap methods. The probability distributions for incision-induced keratometric and posterior corneal astigmatisms, as well as ELP were estimated from the literature review. The predicted residual astigmatism error using method D with an IOL add power calculator (IAPC) was compared with those derived using methods A, B, and C through Monte-Carlo simulation. Method A considered the keratometric astigmatism and incision-induced keratometric astigmatism, method B considered posterior corneal astigmatism in addition to the A method, method C considered incision-induced posterior corneal astigmatism in addition to the B method, and method D considered ELP in addition to the C method. To verify the IAPC used in this study, the predicted toric IOL cylinder power and its axis using the IAPC were compared with ray-tracing simulation results. The median magnitude of the predicted residual astigmatism error using method D (0.25 diopters [D]) was smaller than that derived using methods A (0.42 D), B (0.38 D), and C (0.28 D) respectively. Linear regression analysis indicated that the predicted toric IOL cylinder power and its axis had excellent goodness-of-fit between the IAPC and ray-tracing simulation. The IAPC is a simple but accurate method for predicting the toric IOL cylinder power and its axis considering posterior corneal astigmatism, incision-induced posterior corneal astigmatism, and ELP.

SE Great Basin Play Fairway Analysis

DOE Data Explorer

Adam Brandt

2015-11-15

This submission includes a Na/K geothermometer probability greater than 200 deg C map, as well as two play fairway analysis (PFA) models. The probability map acts as a composite risk segment for the PFA models. The PFA models differ in their application of magnetotelluric conductors as composite risk segments. These PFA models map out the geothermal potential in the region of SE Great Basin, Utah.

Evidence for an expansion-based temporal Shh gradient in specifying vertebrate digit identities.

PubMed

Harfe, Brian D; Scherz, Paul J; Nissim, Sahar; Tian, Hua; McMahon, Andrew P; Tabin, Clifford J

2004-08-20

The zone of polarizing activity (ZPA) in the posterior limb bud produces Sonic Hedgehog (Shh) protein, which plays a critical role in establishing distinct fates along the anterior-posterior axis. This activity has been modeled as a concentration-dependent response to a diffusible morphogen. Using recombinase base mapping in the mouse, we determine the ultimate fate of the Shh-producing cells. Strikingly, the descendants of the Shh-producing cells encompass all cells in the two most posterior digits and also contribute to the middle digit. Our analysis suggests that, while specification of the anterior digits depends upon differential concentrations of Shh, the length of time of exposure to Shh is critical in the specification of the differences between the most posterior digits. Genetic studies of the effects of limiting accessibility of Shh within the limb support this model, in which the effect of the Shh morphogen is dictated by a temporal as well as a spatial gradient.

Applied Mathematics in EM Studies with Special Emphasis on an Uncertainty Quantification and 3-D Integral Equation Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pankratov, Oleg; Kuvshinov, Alexey

2016-01-01

Despite impressive progress in the development and application of electromagnetic (EM) deterministic inverse schemes to map the 3-D distribution of electrical conductivity within the Earth, there is one question which remains poorly addressed—uncertainty quantification of the recovered conductivity models. Apparently, only an inversion based on a statistical approach provides a systematic framework to quantify such uncertainties. The Metropolis-Hastings (M-H) algorithm is the most popular technique for sampling the posterior probability distribution that describes the solution of the statistical inverse problem. However, all statistical inverse schemes require an enormous amount of forward simulations and thus appear to be extremely demanding computationally, if not prohibitive, if a 3-D set up is invoked. This urges development of fast and scalable 3-D modelling codes which can run large-scale 3-D models of practical interest for fractions of a second on high-performance multi-core platforms. But, even with these codes, the challenge for M-H methods is to construct proposal functions that simultaneously provide a good approximation of the target density function while being inexpensive to be sampled. In this paper we address both of these issues. First we introduce a variant of the M-H method which uses information about the local gradient and Hessian of the penalty function. This, in particular, allows us to exploit adjoint-based machinery that has been instrumental for the fast solution of deterministic inverse problems. We explain why this modification of M-H significantly accelerates sampling of the posterior probability distribution. In addition we show how Hessian handling (inverse, square root) can be made practicable by a low-rank approximation using the Lanczos algorithm. Ultimately we discuss uncertainty analysis based on stochastic inversion results. In addition, we demonstrate how this analysis can be performed within a deterministic approach. In the second part, we summarize modern trends in the development of efficient 3-D EM forward modelling schemes with special emphasis on recent advances in the integral equation approach.

A three-step maximum a posteriori probability method for InSAR data inversion of coseismic rupture with application to the 14 April 2010 Mw 6.9 Yushu, China, earthquake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Jianbao; Shen, Zheng-Kang; Bürgmann, Roland; Wang, Min; Chen, Lichun; Xu, Xiwei

2013-08-01

develop a three-step maximum a posteriori probability method for coseismic rupture inversion, which aims at maximizing the a posterior probability density function (PDF) of elastic deformation solutions of earthquake rupture. The method originates from the fully Bayesian inversion and mixed linear-nonlinear Bayesian inversion methods and shares the same posterior PDF with them, while overcoming difficulties with convergence when large numbers of low-quality data are used and greatly improving the convergence rate using optimization procedures. A highly efficient global optimization algorithm, adaptive simulated annealing, is used to search for the maximum of a posterior PDF ("mode" in statistics) in the first step. The second step inversion approaches the "true" solution further using the Monte Carlo inversion technique with positivity constraints, with all parameters obtained from the first step as the initial solution. Then slip artifacts are eliminated from slip models in the third step using the same procedure of the second step, with fixed fault geometry parameters. We first design a fault model with 45° dip angle and oblique slip, and produce corresponding synthetic interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data sets to validate the reliability and efficiency of the new method. We then apply this method to InSAR data inversion for the coseismic slip distribution of the 14 April 2010 Mw 6.9 Yushu, China earthquake. Our preferred slip model is composed of three segments with most of the slip occurring within 15 km depth and the maximum slip reaches 1.38 m at the surface. The seismic moment released is estimated to be 2.32e+19 Nm, consistent with the seismic estimate of 2.50e+19 Nm.

Bayesian seismic inversion based on rock-physics prior modeling for the joint estimation of acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Passos de Figueiredo, Leandro, E-mail: leandrop.fgr@gmail.com; Grana, Dario; Santos, Marcio

We propose a Bayesian approach for seismic inversion to estimate acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies within the reservoir conditioned to post-stack seismic and well data. The link between elastic and petrophysical properties is given by a joint prior distribution for the logarithm of impedance and porosity, based on a rock-physics model. The well conditioning is performed through a background model obtained by well log interpolation. Two different approaches are presented: in the first approach, the prior is defined by a single Gaussian distribution, whereas in the second approach it is defined by a Gaussian mixture to represent the well datamore » multimodal distribution and link the Gaussian components to different geological lithofacies. The forward model is based on a linearized convolutional model. For the single Gaussian case, we obtain an analytical expression for the posterior distribution, resulting in a fast algorithm to compute the solution of the inverse problem, i.e. the posterior distribution of acoustic impedance and porosity as well as the facies probability given the observed data. For the Gaussian mixture prior, it is not possible to obtain the distributions analytically, hence we propose a Gibbs algorithm to perform the posterior sampling and obtain several reservoir model realizations, allowing an uncertainty analysis of the estimated properties and lithofacies. Both methodologies are applied to a real seismic dataset with three wells to obtain 3D models of acoustic impedance, porosity and lithofacies. The methodologies are validated through a blind well test and compared to a standard Bayesian inversion approach. Using the probability of the reservoir lithofacies, we also compute a 3D isosurface probability model of the main oil reservoir in the studied field.« less

Functional magnetic resonance imaging and transcranial magnetic stimulation: effects of motor imagery, movement and coil orientation.

PubMed

Niyazov, D M; Butler, A J; Kadah, Y M; Epstein, C M; Hu, X P

2005-07-01

To compare fMRI activations during movement and motor imagery to corresponding motor evoked potential (MEP) maps obtained with the TMS coil in three different orientations. fMRI activations during executed (EM) and imagined (IM) movements of the index finger were compared to MEP maps of the first dorsal interosseus (FDI) muscle obtained with the TMS coil in anterior, posterior and lateral handle positions. To ensure spatial registration of fMRI and MEP maps, a special grid was used in both experiments. No statistically significant difference was found between the TMS centers of gravity (TMS CoG) obtained with the three coil orientations. There was a significant difference between fMRI centers of gravity during IMs (IM CoG) and EMs (EM CoG), with IM CoGs localized on average 10.3mm anterior to those of EMs in the precentral gyrus. Most importantly, the IM CoGs closely matched cortical projections of the TMS CoGs while the EM CoGs were on average 9.5mm posterior to the projected TMS CoGs. TMS motor maps are more congruent with fMRI activations during motor imagery than those during EMs. These findings are not significantly affected by changing orientation of the TMS coil. Our results suggest that the discrepancy between fMRI and TMS motor maps may be largely due to involvement of the somatosensory component in the EM task.

An agent-based model identifies MRI regions of probable tumor invasion in a patient with glioblastoma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L. Leon; Ulmer, Stephan; Deisboeck, Thomas S.

2010-01-01

We present an application of a previously developed agent-based glioma model (Chen et al 2009 Biosystems 95 234-42) for predicting spatio-temporal tumor progression using a patient-specific MRI lattice derived from apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) data. Agents representing collections of migrating glioma cells are initialized based upon voxels at the outer border of the tumor identified on T1-weighted (Gd+) MRI at an initial time point. These simulated migratory cells exhibit a specific biologically inspired spatial search paradigm, representing a weighting of the differential contribution from haptotactic permission and biomechanical resistance on the migration decision process. ADC data from 9 months after the initial tumor resection were used to select the best search paradigm for the simulation, which was initiated using data from 6 months after the initial operation. Using this search paradigm, 100 simulations were performed to derive a probabilistic map of tumor invasion locations. The simulation was able to successfully predict a recurrence in the dorsal/posterior aspect long before it was depicted on T1-weighted MRI, 18 months after the initial operation.

An agent-based model identifies MRI regions of probable tumor invasion in a patient with glioblastoma.

PubMed

Chen, L Leon; Ulmer, Stephan; Deisboeck, Thomas S

2010-01-21

We present an application of a previously developed agent-based glioma model (Chen et al 2009 Biosystems 95 234-42) for predicting spatio-temporal tumor progression using a patient-specific MRI lattice derived from apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) data. Agents representing collections of migrating glioma cells are initialized based upon voxels at the outer border of the tumor identified on T1-weighted (Gd+) MRI at an initial time point. These simulated migratory cells exhibit a specific biologically inspired spatial search paradigm, representing a weighting of the differential contribution from haptotactic permission and biomechanical resistance on the migration decision process. ADC data from 9 months after the initial tumor resection were used to select the best search paradigm for the simulation, which was initiated using data from 6 months after the initial operation. Using this search paradigm, 100 simulations were performed to derive a probabilistic map of tumor invasion locations. The simulation was able to successfully predict a recurrence in the dorsal/posterior aspect long before it was depicted on T1-weighted MRI, 18 months after the initial operation.

Overview of refinement procedures within REFMAC5: utilizing data from different sources.

PubMed

Kovalevskiy, Oleg; Nicholls, Robert A; Long, Fei; Carlon, Azzurra; Murshudov, Garib N

2018-03-01

Refinement is a process that involves bringing into agreement the structural model, available prior knowledge and experimental data. To achieve this, the refinement procedure optimizes a posterior conditional probability distribution of model parameters, including atomic coordinates, atomic displacement parameters (B factors), scale factors, parameters of the solvent model and twin fractions in the case of twinned crystals, given observed data such as observed amplitudes or intensities of structure factors. A library of chemical restraints is typically used to ensure consistency between the model and the prior knowledge of stereochemistry. If the observation-to-parameter ratio is small, for example when diffraction data only extend to low resolution, the Bayesian framework implemented in REFMAC5 uses external restraints to inject additional information extracted from structures of homologous proteins, prior knowledge about secondary-structure formation and even data obtained using different experimental methods, for example NMR. The refinement procedure also generates the `best' weighted electron-density maps, which are useful for further model (re)building. Here, the refinement of macromolecular structures using REFMAC5 and related tools distributed as part of the CCP4 suite is discussed.

Genetic effect of MTHFR C677T polymorphism on the structural covariance network and white-matter integrity in Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Chang, Yu-Tzu; Hsu, Shih-Wei; Tsai, Shih-Jen; Chang, Ya-Ting; Huang, Chi-Wei; Liu, Mu-En; Chen, Nai-Ching; Chang, Wen-Neng; Hsu, Jung-Lung; Lee, Chen-Chang; Chang, Chiung-Chih

2017-06-01

The 677 C to T transition in the MTHFR gene is a genetic determinant for hyperhomocysteinemia. We investigated whether this polymorphism modulates gray matter (GM) structural covariance networks independently of white-matter integrity in patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD). GM structural covariance networks were constructed by 3D T1-magnetic resonance imaging and seed-based analysis. The patients were divided into two genotype groups: C homozygotes (n = 73) and T carriers (n = 62). Using diffusion tensor imaging and white-matter parcellation, 11 fiber bundle integrities were compared between the two genotype groups. Cognitive test scores were the major outcome factors. The T carriers had higher homocysteine levels, lower posterior cingulate cortex GM volume, and more clusters in the dorsal medial lobe subsystem showing stronger covariance strength. Both posterior cingulate cortex seed and interconnected peak cluster volumes predicted cognitive test scores, especially in the T carriers. There were no between-group differences in fiber tract diffusion parameters. The MTHFR 677T polymorphism modulates posterior cingulate cortex-anchored structural covariance strength independently of white matter integrities. Hum Brain Mapp 38:3039-3051, 2017. © 2017 The Authors Human Brain Mapping Published Wiley by Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 The Authors Human Brain Mapping Published Wiley by Periodicals, Inc.

Screening for previous refractive surgery in eye bank corneas by using optical coherence tomography.

PubMed

Lin, Roger C; Li, Yan; Tang, Maolong; McLain, Marcy; Rollins, Andrew M; Izatt, Joseph A; Huang, David

2007-06-01

To use optical coherence tomography (OCT) to detect previous refractive surgery in donor corneas. We constructed a tabletop OCT scanner operating at 1310-nm wavelength. Donor corneas at the Cleveland Eye Bank were scanned while sealed within the sterile container immersed in Optisol GS. OCT scanning was performed with 7.6-mm-long lines (512 axial scans) along 8 meridians. Anterior and posterior corneal surfaces were automatically mapped using image processing software that we developed. Curvature was computed from the best parabolic fit in the central 5-mm diameter. Layered analysis of the stromal reflectivity was also performed. Twenty-nine corneas from 19 donors were examined. Five had a history of laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK). The flap interfaces could not be visualized on slit-lamp or OCT images but were confirmed by histology. The death-to-scan time was 22.1 +/- 11.4 (SD) hours for normal corneas and 100.6 +/- 57.5 hours for LASIK corneas. The anterior surface power was 67.5 +/- 2.5 D in control corneas and 64.5 +/- 2.4 D in LASIK corneas (P = 0.023). There was no significance between the 2 groups in terms of posterior curvature and thickness parameters. The anterior/posterior reflectivity ratio in the central 4-mm diameter was significantly lower in post-LASIK corneas than in control (P < 0.05). OCT provides thickness, topography, and reflectivity maps of donor corneas without taking them out of preservation medium and container. The anterior curvature and the anterior/posterior stromal reflectivity ratio may be useful for detecting previous LASIK.

In-Vivo Animation of Auditory-Language-Induced Gamma-Oscillations in Children with Intractable Focal Epilepsy

PubMed Central

Brown, Erik C.; Rothermel, Robert; Nishida, Masaaki; Juhász, Csaba; Muzik, Otto; Hoechstetter, Karsten; Sood, Sandeep; Chugani, Harry T.; Asano, Eishi

2008-01-01

We determined if high-frequency gamma-oscillations (50- to 150-Hz) were induced by simple auditory communication over the language network areas in children with focal epilepsy. Four children (ages: 7, 9, 10 and 16 years) with intractable left-hemispheric focal epilepsy underwent extraoperative electrocorticography (ECoG) as well as language mapping using neurostimulation and auditory-language-induced gamma-oscillations on ECoG. The audible communication was recorded concurrently and integrated with ECoG recording to allow for accurate time-lock upon ECoG analysis. In three children, who successfully completed the auditory-language task, high-frequency gamma-augmentation sequentially involved: i) the posterior superior temporal gyrus when listening to the question, ii) the posterior lateral temporal region and the posterior frontal region in the time interval between question completion and the patient’s vocalization, and iii) the pre- and post-central gyri immediately preceding and during the patient’s vocalization. The youngest child, with attention deficits, failed to cooperate during the auditory-language task, and high-frequency gamma-augmentation was noted only in the posterior superior temporal gyrus when audible questions were given. The size of language areas suggested by statistically-significant high-frequency gamma-augmentation was larger than that defined by neurostimulation. The present method can provide in-vivo imaging of electrophysiological activities over the language network areas during language processes. Further studies are warranted to determine whether recording of language-induced gamma-oscillations can supplement language mapping using neurostimulation in presurgical evaluation of children with focal epilepsy. PMID:18455440

Reliability in the location of hindlimb motor representations in Fischer-344 rats: laboratory investigation.

PubMed

Frost, Shawn B; Iliakova, Maria; Dunham, Caleb; Barbay, Scott; Arnold, Paul; Nudo, Randolph J

2013-08-01

The purpose of the present study was to determine the feasibility of using a common laboratory rat strain for reliably locating cortical motor representations of the hindlimb. Intracortical microstimulation techniques were used to derive detailed maps of the hindlimb motor representations in 6 adult Fischer-344 rats. The organization of the hindlimb movement representation, while variable across individual rats in topographic detail, displayed several commonalities. The hindlimb representation was positioned posterior to the forelimb motor representation and posterolateral to the motor trunk representation. The areal extent of the hindlimb representation across the cortical surface averaged 2.00 ± 0.50 mm(2). Superimposing individual maps revealed an overlapping area measuring 0.35 mm(2), indicating that the location of the hindlimb representation can be predicted reliably based on stereotactic coordinates. Across the sample of rats, the hindlimb representation was found 1.25-3.75 mm posterior to the bregma, with an average center location approximately 2.6 mm posterior to the bregma. Likewise, the hindlimb representation was found 1-3.25 mm lateral to the midline, with an average center location approximately 2 mm lateral to the midline. The location of the cortical hindlimb motor representation in Fischer-344 rats can be reliably located based on its stereotactic position posterior to the bregma and lateral to the longitudinal skull suture at midline. The ability to accurately predict the cortical localization of functional hindlimb territories in a rodent model is important, as such animal models are being increasingly used in the development of brain-computer interfaces for restoration of function after spinal cord injury.

Reliability in the Location of Hindlimb Motor Representations in Fischer-344 Rats

PubMed Central

Frost, Shawn B.; Iliakova, Maria; Dunham, Caleb; Barbay, Scott; Arnold, Paul; Nudo, Randolph J.

2014-01-01

Object The purpose of the present study was to determine the feasibility of using a common laboratory rat strain for locating cortical motor representations of the hindlimb reliably. Methods Intracortical Microstimulation (ICMS) techniques were used to derive detailed maps of the hindlimb motor representations in six adult Fischer-344 rats. Results The organization of the hindlimb movement representation, while variable across individuals in topographic detail, displayed several commonalities. The hindlimb representation was positioned posterior to the forelimb motor representation and postero-lateral to the motor trunk representation. The areal extent of the hindlimb representation across the cortical surface averaged 2.00 +/− 0.50 mm2. Superimposing individual maps revealed an overlapping area measuring 0.35 mm2, indicating that the location of the hindlimb representation can be predicted reliably based on stereotactic coordinates. Across the sample of rats, the hindlimb representation was found 1.25–3.75 mm posterior to Bregma, with an average center location ~ 2.6 mm posterior to Bregma. Likewise, the hindlimb representation was found 1–3.25 mm lateral to the midline, with an average center location ~ 2 mm lateral to midline. Conclusions The location of the cortical hindlimb motor representation in Fischer-344 rats can be reliably located based on its stereotactic position posterior to Bregma and lateral to the longitudinal skull suture at midline. The ability to accurately predict the cortical localization of functional hindlimb territories in a rodent model is important, as such animal models are being used increasingly in the development of brain-computer interfaces for restoration of function after spinal cord injury. PMID:23725395

Excessive disgust caused by brain lesions or temporary inactivations: Mapping hotspots of nucleus accumbens and ventral pallidum

PubMed Central

Ho, Chao-Yi; Berridge, Kent C.

2014-01-01

Disgust is a prototypical type of negative affect. In animal models of excessive disgust, only a few brain sites are known in which localized dysfunction (lesions or neural inactivations) can induce intense ‘disgust reactions’ (e.g., gapes) to a normally pleasant sensation such as sweetness. Here we aimed to map forebrain candidates more precisely to identify where either local neuronal damage (excitotoxin lesions) or local pharmacological inactivation (muscimol-baclofen microinjections) caused rats to emit excessive sensory disgust reactions to sucrose. Our study compared subregions of nucleus accumbens shell, ventral pallidum, lateral hypothalamus and adjacent extended amygdala. Results indicated the posterior half of ventral pallidum to be the only forebrain site where intense sensory disgust gapes to sucrose were induced by both lesions and temporary inactivations (this site was previously identified as a hedonic hotspot for enhancements of sweetness ‘liking’). By comparison, for the nucleus accumbens, temporary GABA inactivations in the caudal half of the medial shell also generated sensory disgust but lesions never did at any site. Further, even inactivations failed to induce disgust in the rostral half of accumbens shell (which also contains a hedonic hotspot). In other structures, neither lesions nor inactivations induced disgust as long as the posterior ventral pallidum remained spared. We conclude that the posterior ventral pallidum is an especially crucial hotspot for producing excessive sensory disgust by local pharmacological/lesion dysfunction. By comparison, the nucleus accumbens appears to segregate sites for pharmacological disgust induction and hedonic enhancement into separate posterior versus rostral halves of medial shell. PMID:25229197

Lymphoscintigraphy mapping of truncal malignant melanoma: A study of 212 patients at the Christie NHS Foundation Trust.

PubMed

El Muntasar, Ahmed; Oudit, Deems

2017-01-01

Malignant melanoma (MM) on the trunk, because of its anatomical location, has multiple potential lymphatic basins to which to drain. The aim of this study is to map the location of the sentinel lymph node (SLN) on the basis of the anatomical location of the primary malignant melanoma on the trunk. Patients diagnosed with MM on the trunk who had undergone a SLN biopsy from January 2006 to March 2015 were identified in the Christie NHS Foundation Trust through a computer database search. The anterior and posterior surfaces of the trunk were divided into four sections each. A total of 212 patients were evaluated. MM was more common on the posterior trunk, accounting for 73% of cases, and 57% of melanomas were on the right side of the trunk. The axillary basins were involved in drainage in 91.5% of all truncal melanomas. Drainage was to a single lymphatic basin in 68.3% of cases. The incidence of drainage to multiple lymphatic basins was not uniform for the anterior and posterior surfaces of the trunks. One-third of MM on the posterior surface of the trunk will drain to multiple basins. Around 50% of the melanomas of the upper back drain to a contralateral basin. Independent of the location of the MM, the axillary basins were the most common location of drainage, with a total of 91% of the cohort. Therefore, the location of the SLN could be predicted, depending on the location of the MM on the trunk. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Apparent diffusion coefficient mapping in medulloblastoma predicts non-infiltrative surgical planes.

PubMed

Marupudi, Neena I; Altinok, Deniz; Goncalves, Luis; Ham, Steven D; Sood, Sandeep

2016-11-01

An appropriate surgical approach for posterior fossa lesions is to start tumor removal from areas with a defined plane to where tumor is infiltrating the brainstem or peduncles. This surgical approach minimizes risk of damage to eloquent areas. Although magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the current standard preoperative imaging obtained for diagnosis and surgical planning of pediatric posterior fossa tumors, it offers limited information on the infiltrative planes between tumor and normal structures in patients with medulloblastomas. Because medulloblastomas demonstrate diffusion restriction on apparent diffusion coefficient map (ADC map) sequences, we investigated the role of ADC map in predicting infiltrative and non-infiltrative planes along the brain stem and/or cerebellar peduncles by medulloblastomas prior to surgery. Thirty-four pediatric patients with pathologically confirmed medulloblastomas underwent surgical resection at our facility from 2004 to 2012. An experienced pediatric neuroradiologist reviewed the brain MRIs/ADC map, assessing the planes between the tumor and cerebellar peduncles/brain stem. An independent evaluator documented surgical findings from operative reports for comparison to the radiographic findings. The radiographic findings were statistically compared to the documented intraoperative findings to determine predictive value of the test in identifying tumor infiltration of the brain stem cerebellar peduncles. Twenty-six patients had preoperative ADC mapping completed and thereby, met inclusion criteria. Mean age at time of surgery was 8.3 ± 4.6 years. Positive predictive value of ADC maps to predict tumor invasion of the brain stem and cerebellar peduncles ranged from 69 to 88 %; negative predictive values ranged from 70 to 89 %. Sensitivity approached 93 % while specificity approached 78 %. ADC maps are valuable in predicting the infiltrative and non-infiltrative planes along the tumor and brain stem interface in medulloblastomas. Inclusion and evaluation of ADC maps in preoperative evaluation can assist in surgical resection planning in patients with medulloblastoma.

Vector flow mapping in obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy to assess the relationship of early systolic left ventricular flow and the mitral valve.

PubMed

Ro, Richard; Halpern, Dan; Sahn, David J; Homel, Peter; Arabadjian, Milla; Lopresto, Charles; Sherrid, Mark V

2014-11-11

The hydrodynamic cause of systolic anterior motion of the mitral valve (SAM) is unresolved. This study hypothesized that echocardiographic vector flow mapping, a new echocardiographic technique, would provide insights into the cause of early SAM in obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM). We analyzed the spatial relationship of left ventricular (LV) flow and the mitral valve leaflets (MVL) on 3-chamber vector flow mapping frames, and performed mitral valve measurements on 2-dimensional frames in patients with obstructive and nonobstructive HCM and in normal patients. We compared 82 patients (22 obstructive HCM, 23 nonobstructive HCM, and 37 normal) by measuring 164 LV pre- and post-SAM velocity vector flow maps, 82 maximum isovolumic vortices, and 328 2-dimensional frames. We observed color flow and velocity vector flow posterior to the MVL impacting them in the early systolic frames of 95% of obstructive HCM, 22% of nonobstructive HCM, and 11% of normal patients (p < 0.001). In both pre- and post-SAM frames, we measured a high angle of attack >60° of local vector flow onto the posterior surface of the leaflets whether the flow was ejection (59%) or the early systolic isovolumic vortex (41%). Ricochet of vector flow, rebounding off the leaflet into the cul-de-sac, was noted in 82% of the obstructed HCM, 9% of nonobstructive HCM, and none (0%) of the control patients (p < 0.001). Flow velocities in the LV outflow tract on the pre-SAM frame 1 and 2 mm from the tip of the anterior leaflet were low: 39 and 43 cm/s, respectively. Early systolic flow impacts the posterior surfaces of protruding MVL initiating SAM in obstructive HCM. Copyright © 2014 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The effect of business improvement districts on the incidence of violent crimes

PubMed Central

Golinelli, Daniela; Stokes, Robert J; Bluthenthal, Ricky

2010-01-01

Objective To examine whether business improvement districts (BID) contributed to greater than expected declines in the incidence of violent crimes in affected neighbourhoods. Method A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to assess the changes in the incidence of violent crimes between 1994 and 2005 and the implementation of 30 BID in Los Angeles neighbourhoods. Results The implementation of BID was associated with a 12% reduction in the incidence of robbery (95% posterior probability interval −2 to 24) and an 8% reduction in the total incidence of violent crimes (95% posterior probability interval −5 to 21). The strength of the effect of BID on robbery crimes varied by location. Conclusion These findings indicate that the implementation of BID can reduce the incidence of violent crimes likely to result in injury to individuals. The findings also indicate that the establishment of a BID by itself is not a panacea, and highlight the importance of targeting BID efforts to crime prevention interventions that reduce violence exposure associated with criminal behaviours. PMID:20587814

The effect of business improvement districts on the incidence of violent crimes.

PubMed

MacDonald, John; Golinelli, Daniela; Stokes, Robert J; Bluthenthal, Ricky

2010-10-01

To examine whether business improvement districts (BID) contributed to greater than expected declines in the incidence of violent crimes in affected neighbourhoods. A Bayesian hierarchical model was used to assess the changes in the incidence of violent crimes between 1994 and 2005 and the implementation of 30 BID in Los Angeles neighbourhoods. The implementation of BID was associated with a 12% reduction in the incidence of robbery (95% posterior probability interval -2 to 24) and an 8% reduction in the total incidence of violent crimes (95% posterior probability interval -5 to 21). The strength of the effect of BID on robbery crimes varied by location. These findings indicate that the implementation of BID can reduce the incidence of violent crimes likely to result in injury to individuals. The findings also indicate that the establishment of a BID by itself is not a panacea, and highlight the importance of targeting BID efforts to crime prevention interventions that reduce violence exposure associated with criminal behaviours.

The dorsal stream contribution to phonological retrieval in object naming

PubMed Central

Faseyitan, Olufunsho; Kim, Junghoon; Coslett, H. Branch

2012-01-01

Meaningful speech, as exemplified in object naming, calls on knowledge of the mappings between word meanings and phonological forms. Phonological errors in naming (e.g. GHOST named as ‘goath’) are commonly seen in persisting post-stroke aphasia and are thought to signal impairment in retrieval of phonological form information. We performed a voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping analysis of 1718 phonological naming errors collected from 106 individuals with diverse profiles of aphasia. Voxels in which lesion status correlated with phonological error rates localized to dorsal stream areas, in keeping with classical and contemporary brain-language models. Within the dorsal stream, the critical voxels were concentrated in premotor cortex, pre- and postcentral gyri and supramarginal gyrus with minimal extension into auditory-related posterior temporal and temporo-parietal cortices. This challenges the popular notion that error-free phonological retrieval requires guidance from sensory traces stored in posterior auditory regions and points instead to sensory-motor processes located further anterior in the dorsal stream. In a separate analysis, we compared the lesion maps for phonological and semantic errors and determined that there was no spatial overlap, demonstrating that the brain segregates phonological and semantic retrieval operations in word production. PMID:23171662

Multinomial mixture model with heterogeneous classification probabilities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, M.D.; Gray, B.R.

2011-01-01

Royle and Link (Ecology 86(9):2505-2512, 2005) proposed an analytical method that allowed estimation of multinomial distribution parameters and classification probabilities from categorical data measured with error. While useful, we demonstrate algebraically and by simulations that this method yields biased multinomial parameter estimates when the probabilities of correct category classifications vary among sampling units. We address this shortcoming by treating these probabilities as logit-normal random variables within a Bayesian framework. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to compute Bayes estimates from a simulated sample from the posterior distribution. Based on simulations, this elaborated Royle-Link model yields nearly unbiased estimates of multinomial and correct classification probability estimates when classification probabilities are allowed to vary according to the normal distribution on the logit scale or according to the Beta distribution. The method is illustrated using categorical submersed aquatic vegetation data. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

The utility of Bayesian predictive probabilities for interim monitoring of clinical trials

PubMed Central

Connor, Jason T.; Ayers, Gregory D; Alvarez, JoAnn

2014-01-01

Background Bayesian predictive probabilities can be used for interim monitoring of clinical trials to estimate the probability of observing a statistically significant treatment effect if the trial were to continue to its predefined maximum sample size. Purpose We explore settings in which Bayesian predictive probabilities are advantageous for interim monitoring compared to Bayesian posterior probabilities, p-values, conditional power, or group sequential methods. Results For interim analyses that address prediction hypotheses, such as futility monitoring and efficacy monitoring with lagged outcomes, only predictive probabilities properly account for the amount of data remaining to be observed in a clinical trial and have the flexibility to incorporate additional information via auxiliary variables. Limitations Computational burdens limit the feasibility of predictive probabilities in many clinical trial settings. The specification of prior distributions brings additional challenges for regulatory approval. Conclusions The use of Bayesian predictive probabilities enables the choice of logical interim stopping rules that closely align with the clinical decision making process. PMID:24872363

Integrating probabilistic models of perception and interactive neural networks: a historical and tutorial review

PubMed Central

McClelland, James L.

2013-01-01

This article seeks to establish a rapprochement between explicitly Bayesian models of contextual effects in perception and neural network models of such effects, particularly the connectionist interactive activation (IA) model of perception. The article is in part an historical review and in part a tutorial, reviewing the probabilistic Bayesian approach to understanding perception and how it may be shaped by context, and also reviewing ideas about how such probabilistic computations may be carried out in neural networks, focusing on the role of context in interactive neural networks, in which both bottom-up and top-down signals affect the interpretation of sensory inputs. It is pointed out that connectionist units that use the logistic or softmax activation functions can exactly compute Bayesian posterior probabilities when the bias terms and connection weights affecting such units are set to the logarithms of appropriate probabilistic quantities. Bayesian concepts such the prior, likelihood, (joint and marginal) posterior, probability matching and maximizing, and calculating vs. sampling from the posterior are all reviewed and linked to neural network computations. Probabilistic and neural network models are explicitly linked to the concept of a probabilistic generative model that describes the relationship between the underlying target of perception (e.g., the word intended by a speaker or other source of sensory stimuli) and the sensory input that reaches the perceiver for use in inferring the underlying target. It is shown how a new version of the IA model called the multinomial interactive activation (MIA) model can sample correctly from the joint posterior of a proposed generative model for perception of letters in words, indicating that interactive processing is fully consistent with principled probabilistic computation. Ways in which these computations might be realized in real neural systems are also considered. PMID:23970868

Integrating probabilistic models of perception and interactive neural networks: a historical and tutorial review.

PubMed

McClelland, James L

2013-01-01

This article seeks to establish a rapprochement between explicitly Bayesian models of contextual effects in perception and neural network models of such effects, particularly the connectionist interactive activation (IA) model of perception. The article is in part an historical review and in part a tutorial, reviewing the probabilistic Bayesian approach to understanding perception and how it may be shaped by context, and also reviewing ideas about how such probabilistic computations may be carried out in neural networks, focusing on the role of context in interactive neural networks, in which both bottom-up and top-down signals affect the interpretation of sensory inputs. It is pointed out that connectionist units that use the logistic or softmax activation functions can exactly compute Bayesian posterior probabilities when the bias terms and connection weights affecting such units are set to the logarithms of appropriate probabilistic quantities. Bayesian concepts such the prior, likelihood, (joint and marginal) posterior, probability matching and maximizing, and calculating vs. sampling from the posterior are all reviewed and linked to neural network computations. Probabilistic and neural network models are explicitly linked to the concept of a probabilistic generative model that describes the relationship between the underlying target of perception (e.g., the word intended by a speaker or other source of sensory stimuli) and the sensory input that reaches the perceiver for use in inferring the underlying target. It is shown how a new version of the IA model called the multinomial interactive activation (MIA) model can sample correctly from the joint posterior of a proposed generative model for perception of letters in words, indicating that interactive processing is fully consistent with principled probabilistic computation. Ways in which these computations might be realized in real neural systems are also considered.

A Longitudinal Magnetic Resonance Imaging Study of the Apparent Diffusion Coefficient Values in Corpus Callosum during the First Year after Traumatic Brain Injury

PubMed Central

Håberg, Asta Kristine; Skandsen, Toril; Finnanger, Torun Gangaune; Vik, Anne

2014-01-01

Abstract The objective of this study was to explore the evolution of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) values in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in normal-appearing tissue of the corpus callosum during the 1st year after traumatic brain injury (TBI), and relate findings to outcome. Fifty-seven patients (mean age 34 [range 11–63] years) with moderate to severe TBI were examined with diffusion weighted MRI at three time points (median 7 days, 3 and 12 months), and a sex- and age-matched control group of 47 healthy individuals, were examined once. The corpus callosum was subdivided and the mean ADC values computed blinded in 10 regions of interests without any visible lesions in the ADC map. Outcome measures were Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) and neuropsychological domain scores at 12 months. We found a gradual increase of the mean ADC values during the 12 month follow-up, most evident in the posterior truncus (r=0.19, p<0.001). Compared with the healthy control group, we found higher mean ADC values in posterior truncus both at 3 months (p=0.021) and 12 months (p=0.003) post-injury. Patients with fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) lesions in the corpus callosum in the early MRI, and patients with disability (GOSE score ≤6) showed evidence of increased mean ADC values in the genu and posterior truncus at 12 months. Mean ADC values in posterior parts of the corpus callosum at 3 months predicted the sensory-motor function domain score (p=0.010–0.028). During the 1st year after moderate and severe TBI, we demonstrated a slowly evolving disruption of the microstructure in normal appearing corpus callosum in the ADC map, most evident in the posterior truncus. The mean ADC values were associated with both outcome and ability to perform speeded, complex sensory-motor action. PMID:23837731

Atlas-Independent, Electrophysiological Mapping of the Optimal Locus of Subthalamic Deep Brain Stimulation for the Motor Symptoms of Parkinson Disease.

PubMed

Conrad, Erin C; Mossner, James M; Chou, Kelvin L; Patil, Parag G

2018-05-23

Deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the subthalamic nucleus (STN) improves motor symptoms of Parkinson disease (PD). However, motor outcomes can be variable, perhaps due to inconsistent positioning of the active contact relative to an unknown optimal locus of stimulation. Here, we determine the optimal locus of STN stimulation in a geometrically unconstrained, mathematically precise, and atlas-independent manner, using Unified Parkinson Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) motor outcomes and an electrophysiological neuronal stimulation model. In 20 patients with PD, we mapped motor improvement to active electrode location, relative to the individual, directly MRI-visualized STN. Our analysis included a novel, unconstrained and computational electrical-field model of neuronal activation to estimate the optimal locus of DBS. We mapped the optimal locus to a tightly defined ovoid region 0.49 mm lateral, 0.88 mm posterior, and 2.63 mm dorsal to the anatomical midpoint of the STN. On average, this locus is 11.75 lateral, 1.84 mm posterior, and 1.08 mm ventral to the mid-commissural point. Our novel, atlas-independent method reveals a single, ovoid optimal locus of stimulation in STN DBS for PD. The methodology, here applied to UPDRS and PD, is generalizable to atlas-independent mapping of other motor and non-motor effects of DBS. © 2018 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Intraoperative Hypoglossal Nerve Mapping During Carotid Endarterectomy: Technical Note.

PubMed

Kojima, Atsuhiro; Saga, Isako; Ishikawa, Mami

2018-05-01

Hypoglossal nerve deficit is a possible complication caused by carotid endarterectomy (CEA). The accidental injury of the hypoglossal nerve during surgery is one of the major reasons for permanent hypoglossal nerve palsy. In this study, we investigated the usefulness of intraoperative mapping of the hypoglossal nerve to identify this nerve during CEA. Five consecutive patients who underwent CEA for the treatment of symptomatic or asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis were studied. A hand-held probe was used to detect the hypoglossal nerve in the operative field, and the tongue motor evoked potentials (MEPs) were recorded. The tongue MEPs were obtained in all the patients. The invisible hypoglossal nerve was successfully identified without any difficulty when the internal carotid artery was exposed. Intraoperative mapping was particularly useful for identifying the hypoglossal nerve when the hypoglossal nerve passed beneath the posterior belly of the digastric muscle. In 1 of 2 cases, MEP was also elicited when the ansa cervicalis was stimulated, although the resulting amplitude was much smaller than that obtained by direct stimulation of the hypoglossal nerve. Postoperatively, none of the patients presented with hypoglossal nerve palsy. Intraoperative hypoglossal nerve mapping enabled us to locate the invisible hypoglossal nerve during the exposure of the internal carotid artery accurately without retracting the posterior belly of the digastric muscle and other tissues in the vicinity of the internal carotid artery. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nanoscale characterization of the biomechanical properties of collagen fibrils in the sclera

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Papi, M.; Paoletti, P.; Geraghty, B.

We apply the PeakForce Quantitative Nanomechanical Property Mapping (PFQNM) atomic force microscopy mode for the investigation of regional variations in the nanomechanical properties of porcine sclera. We examine variations in the collagen fibril diameter, adhesion, elastic modulus and dissipation in the posterior, equatorial and anterior regions of the sclera. The mean fibril diameter, elastic modulus and dissipation increased from the posterior to the anterior region. Collagen fibril diameter correlated linearly with elastic modulus. Our data matches the known macroscopic mechanical behavior of the sclera. We propose that PFQNM has significant potential in ocular biomechanics and biophysics research.

Progression of Brain Network Alterations in Cerebral Amyloid Angiopathy.

PubMed

Reijmer, Yael D; Fotiadis, Panagiotis; Riley, Grace A; Xiong, Li; Charidimou, Andreas; Boulouis, Gregoire; Ayres, Alison M; Schwab, Kristin; Rosand, Jonathan; Gurol, M Edip; Viswanathan, Anand; Greenberg, Steven M

2016-10-01

We recently showed that cerebral amyloid angiopathy (CAA) is associated with functionally relevant brain network impairments, in particular affecting posterior white matter connections. Here we examined how these brain network impairments progress over time. Thirty-three patients with probable CAA underwent multimodal brain magnetic resonance imaging at 2 time points (mean follow-up time: 1.3±0.4 years). Brain networks of the hemisphere free of intracerebral hemorrhages were reconstructed using fiber tractography and graph theory. The global efficiency of the network and mean fractional anisotropies of posterior-posterior, frontal-frontal, and posterior-frontal network connections were calculated. Patients with moderate versus severe CAA were defined based on microbleed count, dichotomized at the median (median=35). Global efficiency of the intracerebral hemorrhage-free hemispheric network declined from baseline to follow-up (-0.008±0.003; P=0.029). The decline in global efficiency was most pronounced for patients with severe CAA (group×time interaction P=0.03). The decline in global network efficiency was associated with worse executive functioning (β=0.46; P=0.03). Examination of subgroups of network connections revealed a decline in fractional anisotropies of posterior-posterior connections at both levels of CAA severity (-0.006±0.002; P=0.017; group×time interaction P=0.16). The fractional anisotropies of posterior-frontal and frontal-frontal connections declined in patients with severe but not moderate CAA (group×time interaction P=0.007 and P=0.005). Associations were independent of change in white matter hyperintensity volume. Brain network impairment in patients with CAA worsens measurably over just 1.3-year follow-up and seem to progress from posterior to frontal connections with increasing disease severity. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Differential alpha coherence hemispheric patterns in men and women during pleasant and unpleasant musical emotions.

PubMed

Flores-Gutiérrez, Enrique O; Díaz, José-Luis; Barrios, Fernando A; Guevara, Miguel Angel; Del Río-Portilla, Yolanda; Corsi-Cabrera, María; Del Flores-Gutiérrez, Enrique O

2009-01-01

Potential sex differences in EEG coherent activity during pleasant and unpleasant musical emotions were investigated. Musical excerpts by Mahler, Bach, and Prodromidès were played to seven men and seven women and their subjective emotions were evaluated in relation to alpha band intracortical coherence. Different brain links in specific frequencies were associated to pleasant and unpleasant emotions. Pleasant emotions (Mahler, Bach) increased upper alpha couplings linking left anterior and posterior regions. Unpleasant emotions (Prodromidès) were sustained by posterior midline coherence exclusively in the right hemisphere in men and bilateral in women. Combined music induced bilateral oscillations among posterior sensory and predominantly left association areas in women. Consistent with their greater positive attributions to music, the coherent network is larger in women, both for musical emotion and for unspecific musical effects. Musical emotion entails specific coupling among cortical regions and involves coherent upper alpha activity between posterior association areas and frontal regions probably mediating emotional and perceptual integration. Linked regions by combined music suggest more working memory contribution in women and attention in men.

VizieR Online Data Catalog: Wide binaries in Tycho-Gaia: search method (Andrews+, 2017)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, J. J.; Chaname, J.; Agueros, M. A.

2017-11-01

Our catalogue of wide binaries identified in the Tycho-Gaia Astrometric Solution catalogue. The Gaia source IDs, Tycho IDs, astrometry, posterior probabilities for both the log-flat prior and power-law prior models, and angular separation are presented. (1 data file).

Accurate and quantitative polarization-sensitive OCT by unbiased birefringence estimator with noise-stochastic correction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kasaragod, Deepa; Sugiyama, Satoshi; Ikuno, Yasushi; Alonso-Caneiro, David; Yamanari, Masahiro; Fukuda, Shinichi; Oshika, Tetsuro; Hong, Young-Joo; Li, En; Makita, Shuichi; Miura, Masahiro; Yasuno, Yoshiaki

2016-03-01

Polarization sensitive optical coherence tomography (PS-OCT) is a functional extension of OCT that contrasts the polarization properties of tissues. It has been applied to ophthalmology, cardiology, etc. Proper quantitative imaging is required for a widespread clinical utility. However, the conventional method of averaging to improve the signal to noise ratio (SNR) and the contrast of the phase retardation (or birefringence) images introduce a noise bias offset from the true value. This bias reduces the effectiveness of birefringence contrast for a quantitative study. Although coherent averaging of Jones matrix tomography has been widely utilized and has improved the image quality, the fundamental limitation of nonlinear dependency of phase retardation and birefringence to the SNR was not overcome. So the birefringence obtained by PS-OCT was still not accurate for a quantitative imaging. The nonlinear effect of SNR to phase retardation and birefringence measurement was previously formulated in detail for a Jones matrix OCT (JM-OCT) [1]. Based on this, we had developed a maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimator and quantitative birefringence imaging was demonstrated [2]. However, this first version of estimator had a theoretical shortcoming. It did not take into account the stochastic nature of SNR of OCT signal. In this paper, we present an improved version of the MAP estimator which takes into account the stochastic property of SNR. This estimator uses a probability distribution function (PDF) of true local retardation, which is proportional to birefringence, under a specific set of measurements of the birefringence and SNR. The PDF was pre-computed by a Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation based on the mathematical model of JM-OCT before the measurement. A comparison between this new MAP estimator, our previous MAP estimator [2], and the standard mean estimator is presented. The comparisons are performed both by numerical simulation and in vivo measurements of anterior and posterior eye segment as well as in skin imaging. The new estimator shows superior performance and also shows clearer image contrast.

The effect of deacetylated gellan gum on aesculin distribution in the posterior segment of the eye after topical administration.

PubMed

Chen, Qiuhong; Zheng, Yu; Li, Ye; Zeng, Ying; Kuang, Jianchao; Hou, Shixiang; Li, Xiaohui

2012-05-01

The aim of the present work was to evaluate the effect of deacetylated gellan gum on delivering hydrophilic drug to the posterior segment of the eye. An aesculin-containing in situ gel based on deacetylated gellan gum (AG) was prepared and characterized. In vitro corneal permeation across isolated rabbit cornea of aesculin between AG and aesculin solution (AS) was compared. The results showed that deacetylated gellan gum promotes corneal penetration of aesculin. Pharmacokinetics and ocular tissue distribution of aesculin after topical administration in rabbit eye showed that AG greatly improved aesculin accumulation in posterior segmentsrelative to AS, which was probably attributed to conjunctivital/sclera pathway. The area-under-the-curve (AUC) for AG in aqueous humor, choroid-retina, sclera and iris-ciliary body were significantly larger than those of AS. AG can be used as a potential carrier for broading the application of aesculin.

CKS knee prosthesis: biomechanics and clinical results in 42 cases.

PubMed

Martucci, E; Verni, E; Del Prete, G; Stulberg, S D

1996-01-01

From 1991 to 1993 a total of 42 CKS prostheses were implanted for the following reasons: osteoarthrosis (34 cases), rheumatoid arthritis (7 cases) tibial necrosis (1 case). At follow-up obtained after 17 to 41 months the results were: excellent or good: 41; the only poor result was probably related to excessive tension of the posterior cruciate ligament. 94% of the patients reported complete regression of pain, 85% was capable of going up and down stairs without support. Mean joint flexion was 105 degrees. Radiologically the anatomical axis of the knee had a mean valgus of anatomical axis of the knee had a mean valgus of 6 degrees. The prosthetic components were always cemented. The posterior cruciate ligament was removed in 7 knees, so that the prosthesis with "posterior stability" was used. The patella was never prosthetized. One patient complained of peri-patellar pain two months after surgery which then regressed completely.

Hierarchical Bayes approach for subgroup analysis.

PubMed

Hsu, Yu-Yi; Zalkikar, Jyoti; Tiwari, Ram C

2017-01-01

In clinical data analysis, both treatment effect estimation and consistency assessment are important for a better understanding of the drug efficacy for the benefit of subjects in individual subgroups. The linear mixed-effects model has been used for subgroup analysis to describe treatment differences among subgroups with great flexibility. The hierarchical Bayes approach has been applied to linear mixed-effects model to derive the posterior distributions of overall and subgroup treatment effects. In this article, we discuss the prior selection for variance components in hierarchical Bayes, estimation and decision making of the overall treatment effect, as well as consistency assessment of the treatment effects across the subgroups based on the posterior predictive p-value. Decision procedures are suggested using either the posterior probability or the Bayes factor. These decision procedures and their properties are illustrated using a simulated example with normally distributed response and repeated measurements.

T2 values of articular cartilage in clinically relevant subregions of the asymptomatic knee.

PubMed

Surowiec, Rachel K; Lucas, Erin P; Fitzcharles, Eric K; Petre, Benjamin M; Dornan, Grant J; Giphart, J Erik; LaPrade, Robert F; Ho, Charles P

2014-06-01

In order for T2 mapping to become more clinically applicable, reproducible subregions and standardized T2 parameters must be defined. This study sought to: (1) define clinically relevant subregions of knee cartilage using bone landmarks identifiable on both MR images and during arthroscopy and (2) determine healthy T2 values and T2 texture parameters within these subregions. Twenty-five asymptomatic volunteers (age 18-35) were evaluated with a sagittal T2 mapping sequence. Manual segmentation was performed by three raters, and cartilage was divided into twenty-one subregions modified from the International Cartilage Repair Society Articular Cartilage Mapping System. Mean T2 values and texture parameters (entropy, variance, contrast, homogeneity) were recorded for each subregion, and inter-rater and intra-rater reliability was assessed. The central regions of the condyles had significantly higher T2 values than the posterior regions (P < 0.05) and higher variance than the posterior region on the medial side (P < 0.001). The central trochlea had significantly greater T2 values than the anterior and posterior condyles. The central lateral plateau had lower T2 values, lower variance, higher homogeneity, and lower contrast than nearly all subregions in the tibia. The central patellar regions had higher entropy than the superior and inferior regions (each P ≤ 0.001). Repeatability was good to excellent for all subregions. Significant differences in mean T2 values and texture parameters were found between subregions in this carefully selected asymptomatic population, which suggest that there is normal variation of T2 values within the knee joint. The clinically relevant subregions were found to be robust as demonstrated by the overall high repeatability.

An improved image non-blind image deblurring method based on FoEs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Qidan; Sun, Lei

2013-03-01

Traditional non-blind image deblurring algorithms always use maximum a posterior(MAP). MAP estimates involving natural image priors can reduce the ripples effectively in contrast to maximum likelihood(ML). However, they have been found lacking in terms of restoration performance. Based on this issue, we utilize MAP with KL penalty to replace traditional MAP. We develop an image reconstruction algorithm that minimizes the KL divergence between the reference distribution and the prior distribution. The approximate KL penalty can restrain over-smooth caused by MAP. We use three groups of images and Harris corner detection to prove our method. The experimental results show that our algorithm of non-blind image restoration can effectively reduce the ringing effect and exhibit the state-of-the-art deblurring results.

Star Cluster Properties in Two LEGUS Galaxies Computed with Stochastic Stellar Population Synthesis Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krumholz, Mark R.; Adamo, Angela; Fumagalli, Michele; Wofford, Aida; Calzetti, Daniela; Lee, Janice C.; Whitmore, Bradley C.; Bright, Stacey N.; Grasha, Kathryn; Gouliermis, Dimitrios A.; Kim, Hwihyun; Nair, Preethi; Ryon, Jenna E.; Smith, Linda J.; Thilker, David; Ubeda, Leonardo; Zackrisson, Erik

2015-10-01

We investigate a novel Bayesian analysis method, based on the Stochastically Lighting Up Galaxies (slug) code, to derive the masses, ages, and extinctions of star clusters from integrated light photometry. Unlike many analysis methods, slug correctly accounts for incomplete initial mass function (IMF) sampling, and returns full posterior probability distributions rather than simply probability maxima. We apply our technique to 621 visually confirmed clusters in two nearby galaxies, NGC 628 and NGC 7793, that are part of the Legacy Extragalactic UV Survey (LEGUS). LEGUS provides Hubble Space Telescope photometry in the NUV, U, B, V, and I bands. We analyze the sensitivity of the derived cluster properties to choices of prior probability distribution, evolutionary tracks, IMF, metallicity, treatment of nebular emission, and extinction curve. We find that slug's results for individual clusters are insensitive to most of these choices, but that the posterior probability distributions we derive are often quite broad, and sometimes multi-peaked and quite sensitive to the choice of priors. In contrast, the properties of the cluster population as a whole are relatively robust against all of these choices. We also compare our results from slug to those derived with a conventional non-stochastic fitting code, Yggdrasil. We show that slug's stochastic models are generally a better fit to the observations than the deterministic ones used by Yggdrasil. However, the overall properties of the cluster populations recovered by both codes are qualitatively similar.

Probability modeling of the number of positive cores in a prostate cancer biopsy session, with applications.

PubMed

Serfling, Robert; Ogola, Gerald

2016-02-10

Among men, prostate cancer (CaP) is the most common newly diagnosed cancer and the second leading cause of death from cancer. A major issue of very large scale is avoiding both over-treatment and under-treatment of CaP cases. The central challenge is deciding clinical significance or insignificance when the CaP biopsy results are positive but only marginally so. A related concern is deciding how to increase the number of biopsy cores for larger prostates. As a foundation for improved choice of number of cores and improved interpretation of biopsy results, we develop a probability model for the number of positive cores found in a biopsy, given the total number of cores, the volumes of the tumor nodules, and - very importantly - the prostate volume. Also, three applications are carried out: guidelines for the number of cores as a function of prostate volume, decision rules for insignificant versus significant CaP using number of positive cores, and, using prior distributions on total tumor size, Bayesian posterior probabilities for insignificant CaP and posterior median CaP. The model-based results have generality of application, take prostate volume into account, and provide attractive tradeoffs of specificity versus sensitivity. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Robust Bayesian Experimental Design for Conceptual Model Discrimination

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pham, H. V.; Tsai, F. T. C.

2015-12-01

A robust Bayesian optimal experimental design under uncertainty is presented to provide firm information for model discrimination, given the least number of pumping wells and observation wells. Firm information is the maximum information of a system can be guaranteed from an experimental design. The design is based on the Box-Hill expected entropy decrease (EED) before and after the experiment design and the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) framework. A max-min programming is introduced to choose the robust design that maximizes the minimal Box-Hill EED subject to that the highest expected posterior model probability satisfies a desired probability threshold. The EED is calculated by the Gauss-Hermite quadrature. The BMA method is used to predict future observations and to quantify future observation uncertainty arising from conceptual and parametric uncertainties in calculating EED. Monte Carlo approach is adopted to quantify the uncertainty in the posterior model probabilities. The optimal experimental design is tested by a synthetic 5-layer anisotropic confined aquifer. Nine conceptual groundwater models are constructed due to uncertain geological architecture and boundary condition. High-performance computing is used to enumerate all possible design solutions in order to identify the most plausible groundwater model. Results highlight the impacts of scedasticity in future observation data as well as uncertainty sources on potential pumping and observation locations.

Neural substrates of the impaired effort expenditure decision making in schizophrenia.

PubMed

Huang, Jia; Yang, Xin-Hua; Lan, Yong; Zhu, Cui-Ying; Liu, Xiao-Qun; Wang, Ye-Fei; Cheung, Eric F C; Xie, Guang-Rong; Chan, Raymond C K

2016-09-01

Unwillingness to expend more effort to pursue high value rewards has been associated with motivational anhedonia in schizophrenia (SCZ) and abnormal dopamine activity in the nucleus accumbens (NAcc). The authors hypothesized that dysfunction of the NAcc and the associated forebrain regions are involved in the impaired effort expenditure decision-making of SCZ. A 2 (reward magnitude: low vs. high) × 3 (probability: 20% vs. 50% vs. 80%) event-related fMRI design in the effort-expenditure for reward task (EEfRT) was used to examine the neural response of 23 SCZ patients and 23 demographically matched control participants when the participants made effort expenditure decisions to pursue uncertain rewards. SCZ patients were significantly less likely to expend high level of effort in the medium (50%) and high (80%) probability conditions than healthy controls. The neural response in the NAcc, the posterior cingulate gyrus and the left medial frontal gyrus in SCZ patients were weaker than healthy controls and did not linearly increase with an increase in reward magnitude and probability. Moreover, NAcc activity was positively correlated with the willingness to expend high-level effort and concrete consummatory pleasure experience. NAcc and posterior cingulate dysfunctions in SCZ patients may be involved in their impaired effort expenditure decision-making. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

The digestive system of the "stick bug" Cladomorphus phyllinus (Phasmida, Phasmatidae): a morphological, physiological and biochemical analysis.

PubMed

Monteiro, Emiliano C; Tamaki, Fábio K; Terra, Walter R; Ribeiro, Alberto F

2014-03-01

This work presents a detailed morphofunctional study of the digestive system of a phasmid representative, Cladomorphus phyllinus. Cells from anterior midgut exhibit a merocrine secretion, whereas posterior midgut cells show a microapocrine secretion. A complex system of midgut tubules is observed in the posterior midgut which is probably related to the luminal alkalization of this region. Amaranth dye injection into the haemolymph and orally feeding insects with dye indicated that the anterior midgut is water-absorbing, whereas the Malpighian tubules are the main site of water secretion. Thus, a putative counter-current flux of fluid from posterior to anterior midgut may propel enzyme digestive recycling, confirmed by the low rate of enzyme excretion. The foregut and anterior midgut present an acidic pH (5.3 and 5.6, respectively), whereas the posterior midgut is highly alkaline (9.1) which may be related to the digestion of hemicelluloses. Most amylase, trypsin and chymotrypsin activities occur in the foregut and anterior midgut. Maltase is found along the midgut associated with the microvillar glycocalix, while aminopeptidase occurs in the middle and posterior midgut in membrane bound forms. Both amylase and trypsin are secreted mainly by the anterior midgut through an exocytic process as revealed by immunocytochemical data. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Probabilistic Model of Illegal Drug Trafficking Operations in the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean Sea

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-09-01

partner agencies and nations, detects, tracks, and interdicts illegal drug-trafficking in this region. In this thesis, we develop a probability model based...trafficking in this region. In this thesis, we develop a probability model based on intelligence inputs to generate a spatial temporal heat map specifying the...complement and vet such complicated simulation by developing more analytically tractable models. We develop probability models to generate a heat map

Spalled, aerodynamically modified moldavite from Slavice, Moravia, Czechoslovakia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chao, E.C.T.

1964-01-01

A Czechoslovakian tektite or moldavite shows clear, indirect evidence of aerodynamic ablation. This large tektite has the shape of a teardrop, with a strongly convex, deeply corroded, but clearly identifiable front and a planoconvex, relatively smooth, posterior surface. In spite of much erosion and corrosion, demarcation of the posterior and the anterior part of the specimen (the keel) is clearly preserved locally. This specimen provides the first tangible evidence that moldavites entered the atmosphere cold, probably at a velocity exceeding 5 kilometers per second; the result was selective heating of the anterior face and perhaps ablation during the second melting. This provides evidence of the extraterrestial origin of moldavites.

Some Simple Formulas for Posterior Convergence Rates

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

We derive some simple relations that demonstrate how the posterior convergence rate is related to two driving factors: a “penalized divergence” of the prior, which measures the ability of the prior distribution to propose a nonnegligible set of working models to approximate the true model and a “norm complexity” of the prior, which measures the complexity of the prior support, weighted by the prior probability masses. These formulas are explicit and involve no essential assumptions and are easy to apply. We apply this approach to the case with model averaging and derive some useful oracle inequalities that can optimize the performance adaptively without knowing the true model. PMID:27379278

Discovery and fine-mapping of adiposity loci using high density imputation of genome-wide association studies in individuals of African ancestry: African Ancestry Anthropometry Genetics Consortium

PubMed Central

Lu, Yingchang; Justice, Anne E.; Mudgal, Poorva; Liu, Ching-Ti; Young, Kristin; Feitosa, Mary F.; Rand, Kristin; Dimitrov, Latchezar; Duan, Qing; Guo, Xiuqing; Lange, Leslie A.; Nalls, Michael A.; Okut, Hayrettin; Tayo, Bamidele O.; Vedantam, Sailaja; Bradfield, Jonathan P.; Chen, Guanjie; Chesi, Alessandra; Irvin, Marguerite R.; Padhukasahasram, Badri; Zheng, Wei; Allison, Matthew A.; Ambrosone, Christine B.; Bandera, Elisa V.; Berndt, Sonja I.; Blot, William J.; Bottinger, Erwin P.; Carpten, John; Chanock, Stephen J.; Chen, Yii-Der Ida; Conti, David V.; Cooper, Richard S.; Fornage, Myriam; Freedman, Barry I.; Garcia, Melissa; Goodman, Phyllis J.; Hsu, Yu-Han H.; Hu, Jennifer; Huff, Chad D.; Ingles, Sue A.; John, Esther M.; Kittles, Rick; Klein, Eric; Li, Jin; McKnight, Barbara; Nayak, Uma; Nemesure, Barbara; Olshan, Andrew; Salako, Babatunde; Sanderson, Maureen; Shao, Yaming; Siscovick, David S.; Stanford, Janet L.; Strom, Sara S.; Witte, John S.; Yao, Jie; Zhu, Xiaofeng; Ziegler, Regina G.; Zonderman, Alan B.; Ambs, Stefan; Cushman, Mary; Faul, Jessica D.; Hakonarson, Hakon; Levin, Albert M.; Nathanson, Katherine L.; Weir, David R.; Zhi, Degui; Arnett, Donna K.; Kardia, Sharon L. R.; Oloapde, Olufunmilayo I.; Rao, D. C.; Williams, L. Keoki; Becker, Diane M.; Borecki, Ingrid B.; Evans, Michele K.; Harris, Tamara B.; Hirschhorn, Joel N.; Psaty, Bruce M.; Wilson, James G.; Bowden, Donald W.; Cupples, L. Adrienne; Haiman, Christopher A.; Loos, Ruth J. F.; North, Kari E.

2017-01-01

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified >300 loci associated with measures of adiposity including body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (adjusted for BMI, WHRadjBMI), but few have been identified through screening of the African ancestry genomes. We performed large scale meta-analyses and replications in up to 52,895 individuals for BMI and up to 23,095 individuals for WHRadjBMI from the African Ancestry Anthropometry Genetics Consortium (AAAGC) using 1000 Genomes phase 1 imputed GWAS to improve coverage of both common and low frequency variants in the low linkage disequilibrium African ancestry genomes. In the sex-combined analyses, we identified one novel locus (TCF7L2/HABP2) for WHRadjBMI and eight previously established loci at P < 5×10−8: seven for BMI, and one for WHRadjBMI in African ancestry individuals. An additional novel locus (SPRYD7/DLEU2) was identified for WHRadjBMI when combined with European GWAS. In the sex-stratified analyses, we identified three novel loci for BMI (INTS10/LPL and MLC1 in men, IRX4/IRX2 in women) and four for WHRadjBMI (SSX2IP, CASC8, PDE3B and ZDHHC1/HSD11B2 in women) in individuals of African ancestry or both African and European ancestry. For four of the novel variants, the minor allele frequency was low (<5%). In the trans-ethnic fine mapping of 47 BMI loci and 27 WHRadjBMI loci that were locus-wide significant (P < 0.05 adjusted for effective number of variants per locus) from the African ancestry sex-combined and sex-stratified analyses, 26 BMI loci and 17 WHRadjBMI loci contained ≤ 20 variants in the credible sets that jointly account for 99% posterior probability of driving the associations. The lead variants in 13 of these loci had a high probability of being causal. As compared to our previous HapMap imputed GWAS for BMI and WHRadjBMI including up to 71,412 and 27,350 African ancestry individuals, respectively, our results suggest that 1000 Genomes imputation showed modest improvement in identifying GWAS loci including low frequency variants. Trans-ethnic meta-analyses further improved fine mapping of putative causal variants in loci shared between the African and European ancestry populations. PMID:28430825

A new prior for bayesian anomaly detection: application to biosurveillance.

PubMed

Shen, Y; Cooper, G F

2010-01-01

Bayesian anomaly detection computes posterior probabilities of anomalous events by combining prior beliefs and evidence from data. However, the specification of prior probabilities can be challenging. This paper describes a Bayesian prior in the context of disease outbreak detection. The goal is to provide a meaningful, easy-to-use prior that yields a posterior probability of an outbreak that performs at least as well as a standard frequentist approach. If this goal is achieved, the resulting posterior could be usefully incorporated into a decision analysis about how to act in light of a possible disease outbreak. This paper describes a Bayesian method for anomaly detection that combines learning from data with a semi-informative prior probability over patterns of anomalous events. A univariate version of the algorithm is presented here for ease of illustration of the essential ideas. The paper describes the algorithm in the context of disease-outbreak detection, but it is general and can be used in other anomaly detection applications. For this application, the semi-informative prior specifies that an increased count over baseline is expected for the variable being monitored, such as the number of respiratory chief complaints per day at a given emergency department. The semi-informative prior is derived based on the baseline prior, which is estimated from using historical data. The evaluation reported here used semi-synthetic data to evaluate the detection performance of the proposed Bayesian method and a control chart method, which is a standard frequentist algorithm that is closest to the Bayesian method in terms of the type of data it uses. The disease-outbreak detection performance of the Bayesian method was statistically significantly better than that of the control chart method when proper baseline periods were used to estimate the baseline behavior to avoid seasonal effects. When using longer baseline periods, the Bayesian method performed as well as the control chart method. The time complexity of the Bayesian algorithm is linear in the number of the observed events being monitored, due to a novel, closed-form derivation that is introduced in the paper. This paper introduces a novel prior probability for Bayesian outbreak detection that is expressive, easy-to-apply, computationally efficient, and performs as well or better than a standard frequentist method.

Evaluation of carrier collection probability in bifacial interdigitated-back-contact crystalline silicon solar cells by the internal quantum efficiency mapping method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tachibana, Tomihisa; Tanahashi, Katsuto; Mochizuki, Toshimitsu; Shirasawa, Katsuhiko; Takato, Hidetaka

2018-04-01

Bifacial interdigitated-back-contact (IBC) silicon solar cells with a high bifaciality of 0.91 were fabricated. Screen printing and firing technology were used to reduce the production cost. For the first time, the relationship between the rear side structure and carrier collection probability was evaluated using internal quantum efficiency (IQE) mapping. The measurement results showed that the screen-printed electrode and back surface field (BSF) area led to low IQE. The low carrier collection probability by BSF area can be explained by electrical shading effects. Thus, it is clear that the IQE mapping system is useful to evaluate the IBC cell.

Crisp clustering of airborne geophysical data from the Alto Ligonha pegmatite field, northeastern Mozambique, to predict zones of increased rare earth element potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eberle, Detlef G.; Daudi, Elias X. F.; Muiuane, Elônio A.; Nyabeze, Peter; Pontavida, Alfredo M.

2012-01-01

The National Geology Directorate of Mozambique (DNG) and Maputo-based Eduardo-Mondlane University (UEM) entered a joint venture with the South African Council for Geoscience (CGS) to conduct a case study over the meso-Proterozoic Alto Ligonha pegmatite field in the Zambézia Province of northeastern Mozambique to support the local exploration and mining sectors. Rare-metal minerals, i.e. tantalum and niobium, as well as rare-earth minerals have been mined in the Alto Ligonha pegmatite field since decades, but due to the civil war (1977-1992) production nearly ceased. The Government now strives to promote mining in the region as contribution to poverty alleviation. This study was undertaken to facilitate the extraction of geological information from the high resolution airborne magnetic and radiometric data sets recently acquired through a World Bank funded survey and mapping project. The aim was to generate a value-added map from the airborne geophysical data that is easier to read and use by the exploration and mining industries than mere airborne geophysical grid data or maps. As a first step towards clustering, thorium (Th) and potassium (K) concentrations were determined from the airborne geophysical data as well as apparent magnetic susceptibility and first vertical magnetic gradient data. These four datasets were projected onto a 100 m spaced regular grid to assemble 850,000 four-element (multivariate) sample vectors over the study area. Classification of the sample vectors using crisp clustering based upon the Euclidian distance between sample and class centre provided a (pseudo-) geology map or value-added map, respectively, displaying the spatial distribution of six different classes in the study area. To learn the quality of sample allocation, the degree of membership of each sample vector was determined using a-posterior discriminant analysis. Geophysical ground truth control was essential to allocate geology/geophysical attributes to the six classes. The highest probability to meet pegmatite bodies is in close vicinity to (magnetic) amphibole schist occurring in areas where depletion of potassium as indication of metasomatic processes is evident from the airborne radiometric data. Clustering has proven to be a fast and effective method to compile value-added maps from multivariate geophysical datasets. Experience made in the Alto Ligonha pegmatite field encourages adopting this new methodology for mapping other parts of the Mozambique Fold Belt.

Value of Weather Information in Cranberry Marketing Decisions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morzuch, Bernard J.; Willis, Cleve E.

1982-04-01

Econometric techniques are used to establish a functional relationship between cranberry yields and important precipitation, temperature, and sunshine variables. Crop forecasts are derived from the model and are used to establish posterior probabilities to be used in a Bayesian decision context pertaining to leasing space for the storage of the berries.

Bayesian Estimation of the DINA Model with Gibbs Sampling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Culpepper, Steven Andrew

2015-01-01

A Bayesian model formulation of the deterministic inputs, noisy "and" gate (DINA) model is presented. Gibbs sampling is employed to simulate from the joint posterior distribution of item guessing and slipping parameters, subject attribute parameters, and latent class probabilities. The procedure extends concepts in Béguin and Glas,…

BAT - The Bayesian analysis toolkit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, Allen; Kollár, Daniel; Kröninger, Kevin

2009-11-01

We describe the development of a new toolkit for data analysis. The analysis package is based on Bayes' Theorem, and is realized with the use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo. This gives access to the full posterior probability distribution. Parameter estimation, limit setting and uncertainty propagation are implemented in a straightforward manner.

Bayesian Posterior Odds Ratios: Statistical Tools for Collaborative Evaluations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hicks, Tyler; Rodríguez-Campos, Liliana; Choi, Jeong Hoon

2018-01-01

To begin statistical analysis, Bayesians quantify their confidence in modeling hypotheses with priors. A prior describes the probability of a certain modeling hypothesis apart from the data. Bayesians should be able to defend their choice of prior to a skeptical audience. Collaboration between evaluators and stakeholders could make their choices…

Functional organization of human intraparietal and frontal cortex for attending, looking, and pointing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Astafiev, Serguei V.; Shulman, Gordon L.; Stanley, Christine M.; Snyder, Abraham Z.; Van Essen, David C.; Corbetta, Maurizio

2003-01-01

We studied the functional organization of human posterior parietal and frontal cortex using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to map preparatory signals for attending, looking, and pointing to a peripheral visual location. The human frontal eye field and two separate regions in the intraparietal sulcus were similarly recruited in all conditions, suggesting an attentional role that generalizes across response effectors. However, the preparation of a pointing movement selectively activated a different group of regions, suggesting a stronger role in motor planning. These regions were lateralized to the left hemisphere, activated by preparation of movements of either hand, and included the inferior and superior parietal lobule, precuneus, and posterior superior temporal sulcus, plus the dorsal premotor and anterior cingulate cortex anteriorly. Surface-based registration of macaque cortical areas onto the map of fMRI responses suggests a relatively good spatial correspondence between human and macaque parietal areas. In contrast, large interspecies differences were noted in the topography of frontal areas.

Metrics and textural features of MRI diffusion to improve classification of pediatric posterior fossa tumors.

PubMed

Rodriguez Gutierrez, D; Awwad, A; Meijer, L; Manita, M; Jaspan, T; Dineen, R A; Grundy, R G; Auer, D P

2014-05-01

Qualitative radiologic MR imaging review affords limited differentiation among types of pediatric posterior fossa brain tumors and cannot detect histologic or molecular subtypes, which could help to stratify treatment. This study aimed to improve current posterior fossa discrimination of histologic tumor type by using support vector machine classifiers on quantitative MR imaging features. This retrospective study included preoperative MRI in 40 children with posterior fossa tumors (17 medulloblastomas, 16 pilocytic astrocytomas, and 7 ependymomas). Shape, histogram, and textural features were computed from contrast-enhanced T2WI and T1WI and diffusivity (ADC) maps. Combinations of features were used to train tumor-type-specific classifiers for medulloblastoma, pilocytic astrocytoma, and ependymoma types in separation and as a joint posterior fossa classifier. A tumor-subtype classifier was also produced for classic medulloblastoma. The performance of different classifiers was assessed and compared by using randomly selected subsets of training and test data. ADC histogram features (25th and 75th percentiles and skewness) yielded the best classification of tumor type (on average >95.8% of medulloblastomas, >96.9% of pilocytic astrocytomas, and >94.3% of ependymomas by using 8 training samples). The resulting joint posterior fossa classifier correctly assigned >91.4% of the posterior fossa tumors. For subtype classification, 89.4% of classic medulloblastomas were correctly classified on the basis of ADC texture features extracted from the Gray-Level Co-Occurence Matrix. Support vector machine-based classifiers using ADC histogram features yielded very good discrimination among pediatric posterior fossa tumor types, and ADC textural features show promise for further subtype discrimination. These findings suggest an added diagnostic value of quantitative feature analysis of diffusion MR imaging in pediatric neuro-oncology. © 2014 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

Spatiotemporal Patterns of Tumor Occurrence in Children with Intraocular Retinoblastoma.

PubMed

King, Benjamin A; Parra, Carlos; Li, Yimei; Helton, Kathleen J; Qaddoumi, Ibrahim; Wilson, Matthew W; Ogg, Robert J

2015-01-01

To accurately map the retinal area covered by tumor in a prospectively enrolled cohort of children diagnosed with retinoblastoma. Orbital MRI in 106 consecutive retinoblastoma patients (44 bilateral) was analyzed. For MRI-visible tumors, the polar angle and angle of eccentricity of points defining tumor perimeter on the retina were determined by triangulation from images in three orthogonal planes. The centroid of the mapped area was calculated to approximate tumor origin, and the location and cumulative tumor burden were analyzed in relation to mutation type (germline vs. somatic), tumor area, and patient age at diagnosis. Location of small tumors undetected by MRI was approximated with fundoscopic images. Mapping was successful for 129 tumors in 91 eyes from 67 patients (39 bilateral, 43 germline mutation). Cumulative tumor burden was highest within the macula and posterior pole and was asymmetrically higher within the inferonasal periphery. Tumor incidence was lowest in the superotemporal periphery. Tumor location varied with age at diagnosis in a complex pattern. Tumor location was concentrated in the macula and superonasal periphery in patients <5.6 months, in the inferotemporal quadrant of the posterior pole in patients 5.6-8.8 months, in the inferonasal quadrant in patients 8.8-13.2 months, and in the nasal and superotemporal periphery in patients >13.2 months. The distribution of MRI-invisible tumors was consistent with the asymmetry of mapped tumors. MRI-based mapping revealed a previously unrecognized pattern of retinoblastoma localization that evolves with age at diagnosis. The structured spatiotemporal distribution of tumors may provide valuable clues about cellular or molecular events associated with tumorigenesis in the developing retina.

Excessive disgust caused by brain lesions or temporary inactivations: mapping hotspots of the nucleus accumbens and ventral pallidum.

PubMed

Ho, Chao-Yi; Berridge, Kent C

2014-11-01

Disgust is a prototypical type of negative affect. In animal models of excessive disgust, only a few brain sites are known in which localized dysfunction (lesions or neural inactivations) can induce intense 'disgust reactions' (e.g. gapes) to a normally pleasant sensation such as sweetness. Here, we aimed to map forebrain candidates more precisely, to identify where either local neuronal damage (excitotoxin lesions) or local pharmacological inactivation (muscimol/baclofen microinjections) caused rats to show excessive sensory disgust reactions to sucrose. Our study compared subregions of the nucleus accumbens shell, ventral pallidum, lateral hypothalamus, and adjacent extended amygdala. The results indicated that the posterior half of the ventral pallidum was the only forebrain site where intense sensory disgust gapes in response to sucrose were induced by both lesions and temporary inactivations (this site was previously identified as a hedonic hotspot for enhancements of sweetness 'liking'). By comparison, for the nucleus accumbens, temporary GABA inactivations in the caudal half of the medial shell also generated sensory disgust, but lesions never did at any site. Furthermore, even inactivations failed to induce disgust in the rostral half of the accumbens shell (which also contains a hedonic hotspot). In other structures, neither lesions nor inactivations induced disgust as long as the posterior ventral pallidum remained spared. We conclude that the posterior ventral pallidum is an especially crucial hotspot for producing excessive sensory disgust by local pharmacological/lesion dysfunction. By comparison, the nucleus accumbens appears to segregate sites for pharmacological disgust induction and hedonic enhancement into separate posterior and rostral halves of the medial shell. © 2014 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparing fuel reduction treatments for reducing wildfire size and intensity in a boreal forest landscape of northeastern China.

PubMed

Wu, Zhiwei; He, Hong S; Liu, Zhihua; Liang, Yu

2013-06-01

Fuel load is often used to prioritize stands for fuel reduction treatments. However, wildfire size and intensity are not only related to fuel loads but also to a wide range of other spatially related factors such as topography, weather and human activity. In prioritizing fuel reduction treatments, we propose using burn probability to account for the effects of spatially related factors that can affect wildfire size and intensity. Our burn probability incorporated fuel load, ignition probability, and spread probability (spatial controls to wildfire) at a particular location across a landscape. Our goal was to assess differences in reducing wildfire size and intensity using fuel-load and burn-probability based treatment prioritization approaches. Our study was conducted in a boreal forest in northeastern China. We derived a fuel load map from a stand map and a burn probability map based on historical fire records and potential wildfire spread pattern. The burn probability map was validated using historical records of burned patches. We then simulated 100 ignitions and six fuel reduction treatments to compare fire size and intensity under two approaches of fuel treatment prioritization. We calibrated and validated simulated wildfires against historical wildfire data. Our results showed that fuel reduction treatments based on burn probability were more effective at reducing simulated wildfire size, mean and maximum rate of spread, and mean fire intensity, but less effective at reducing maximum fire intensity across the burned landscape than treatments based on fuel load. Thus, contributions from both fuels and spatially related factors should be considered for each fuel reduction treatment. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Evolutionary characterization of the emerging porcine epidemic diarrhea virus worldwide and 2014 epidemic in Taiwan.

PubMed

Sung, Ming-Hua; Deng, Ming-Chung; Chung, Yi-Hsuan; Huang, Yu-Liang; Chang, Chia-Yi; Lan, Yu-Ching; Chou, Hsin-Lin; Chao, Day-Yu

2015-12-01

Since 2010, a new variant of PEDV belonging to Genogroup 2 has been transmitting in China and further spreading to the Unites States and other Asian countries including Taiwan. In order to characterize in detail the temporal and geographic relationships among PEDV strains, the present study systematically evaluated the evolutionary patterns and phylogenetic resolution in each gene of the whole PEDV genome in order to determine which regions provided the maximal interpretative power. The result was further applied to identify the origin of PEDV that caused the 2014 epidemic in Taiwan. Thirty-four full genome sequences were downloaded from GenBank and divided into three non-mutually exclusive groups, namely, worldwide, Genogroup 2 and China, to cover different ranges of secular and spatial trends. Each dataset was then divided into different alignments by different genes for likelihood mapping and phylogenetic analysis. Our study suggested that both nsp3 and S genes contained the highest phylogenetic signal with substitution rate and phylogenetic topology similar to those obtained from the complete genome. Furthermore, the proportion of nodes with high posterior support (posterior probability >0.8) was similar between nsp3 and S genes. The nsp3 gene sequences from three clinical samples of swine with PEDV infections were aligned with other strains available from GenBank and the results suggested that the virus responsible for the 2014 PEDV outbreak in Taiwan clustered together with Clade I from the US within Genogroup 2. In conclusion, the current study identified the nsp3 gene as an alternative marker for a rapid and unequivocal classification of the circulating PEDV strains which provides complementary information to the S gene in identifying the emergence of epidemic strain resulting from recombination. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A mesostate-space model for EEG and MEG.

PubMed

Daunizeau, Jean; Friston, Karl J

2007-10-15

We present a multi-scale generative model for EEG, that entails a minimum number of assumptions about evoked brain responses, namely: (1) bioelectric activity is generated by a set of distributed sources, (2) the dynamics of these sources can be modelled as random fluctuations about a small number of mesostates, (3) mesostates evolve in a temporal structured way and are functionally connected (i.e. influence each other), and (4) the number of mesostates engaged by a cognitive task is small (e.g. between one and a few). A Variational Bayesian learning scheme is described that furnishes the posterior density on the models parameters and its evidence. Since the number of meso-sources specifies the model, the model evidence can be used to compare models and find the optimum number of meso-sources. In addition to estimating the dynamics at each cortical dipole, the mesostate-space model and its inversion provide a description of brain activity at the level of the mesostates (i.e. in terms of the dynamics of meso-sources that are distributed over dipoles). The inclusion of a mesostate level allows one to compute posterior probability maps of each dipole being active (i.e. belonging to an active mesostate). Critically, this model accommodates constraints on the number of meso-sources, while retaining the flexibility of distributed source models in explaining data. In short, it bridges the gap between standard distributed and equivalent current dipole models. Furthermore, because it is explicitly spatiotemporal, the model can embed any stochastic dynamical causal model (e.g. a neural mass model) as a Markov process prior on the mesostate dynamics. The approach is evaluated and compared to standard inverse EEG techniques, using synthetic data and real data. The results demonstrate the added-value of the mesostate-space model and its variational inversion.

Topographical characteristics and principal component structure of the hypnagogic EEG.

PubMed

Tanaka, H; Hayashi, M; Hori, T

1997-07-01

The purpose of the present study was to identify the dominant topographic components of electroencephalographs (EEG) and their behavior during the waking-sleeping transition period. Somnography of nocturnal sleep was recorded on 10 male subjects. Each recording, from "lights-off" to 5 minutes after the appearance of the first sleep spindle, was analyzed. The typical EEG patterns during hypnagogic period were classified into nine EEG stages. Topographic maps demonstrated that the dominant areas of alpha-band activity moved from the posterior areas to anterior areas along the midline of the scalp. In delta-, theta-, and sigma-band activities, the differences of EEG amplitude between the focus areas (the dominant areas) and the surrounding areas increased as a function of EEG stage. To identify the dominant topographic components, a principal component analysis was carried out on a 12-channel EEG data set for each of six frequency bands. The dominant areas of alpha 2- (9.6-11.4 Hz) and alpha 3- (11.6-13.4 Hz) band activities moved from the posterior to anterior areas, respectively. The distribution of alpha 2-band activity on the scalp clearly changed just after EEG stage 3 (alpha intermittent, < 50%). On the other hand, alpha 3-band activity became dominant in anterior areas after the appearance of vertex sharp-wave bursts (EEG stage 7). For the sigma band, the amplitude of extensive areas from the frontal pole to the parietal showed a rapid rise after the onset of stage 7 (the appearance of vertex sharp-wave bursts). Based on the results, sleep onset process probably started before the onset of sleep stage 1 in standard criteria. On the other hand, the basic sleep process may start before the onset of sleep stage 2 or the manually scored spindles.

Nitrate probability mapping in the northern aquifer alluvial system of the river Tagus (Portugal) using Disjunctive Kriging.

PubMed

Mendes, Maria Paula; Ribeiro, Luís

2010-02-01

The Water Framework Directive and its daughter directives recognize the urgent need to adopt specific measures against the contamination of water by individual pollutants or a group of pollutants that present a significant risk to the quality of water. Probability maps showing that the nitrate concentrations exceed a legal threshold value in any location of the aquifer are used to assess risk of groundwater quality degradation from intensive agricultural activity in aquifers. In this paper we use Disjunctive Kriging to map the probability that the Nitrates Directive limit (91/676/EEC) is exceeded for the Nitrate Vulnerable Zone of the River Tagus alluvium aquifer. The Tagus alluvial aquifer system belongs to one of the most productive hydrogeological unit of continental Portugal and it is used to irrigate crops. Several groundwater monitoring campaigns were carried out from 2004 to 2006 according to the summer crops cycle. The study reveals more areas on the west bank with higher probabilities of contamination by nitrates (nitrate concentration values above 50mg/L) than on the east bank. The analysis of synthetic temporal probability map shows the areas where there is an increase of nitrates concentration during the summers. Copyright 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The right intercostobronchial trunk: anatomical study in respect of posterior intercostal artery origin and its clinical application.

PubMed

Kocbek, Lidija; Rakuša, Mateja

2018-01-01

The right bronchial artery usually arises from the descending thoracic aorta as a common trunk with the right intercostal artery and forms the right intercostobronchial trunk. Both, the third right posterior intercostal artery and the right intercostobronchial trunk, are described as the most constant vessels. The focus of the study was to determine the characteristics of the right intercostobronchial trunk regarding the origins of the posterior intercostal arteries from the thoracic aorta. Posterior intercostal arteries and the right bronchial arteries were dissected in 43 human cadavers, preserved after Thiel's embalming method with intraarterial infusion of red colored latex. Postmortem examination gave valued information on the right intercostobronchial trunk present in 58% of cases. The right intercostobronchial trunk was mapped and new classification regarding the origin of the posterior intercostal arteries from the thoracic aorta suggested type A, B and C, the latter ones into subtypes 1 and 2. Type A was proportional to the origin level of the PIA and its corresponding intercostal space. Size of outer diameter at the origin did not indicate the right bronchial artery branch. In subtype 2 of type B the proximal posterior intercostal artery diameter that gave off right bronchial artery was thicker than distal one. The right bronchial artery originates from the second to the fifth posterior intercostal artery forming the right intercostobronchial trunk. Various origin and types of origin, diameter and course of the right intercostobronchial trunk described and analyzed in the study offer valuable information on the procedures involving the right intercostobronchial trunk.

Ockham's razor and Bayesian analysis. [statistical theory for systems evaluation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jefferys, William H.; Berger, James O.

1992-01-01

'Ockham's razor', the ad hoc principle enjoining the greatest possible simplicity in theoretical explanations, is presently shown to be justifiable as a consequence of Bayesian inference; Bayesian analysis can, moreover, clarify the nature of the 'simplest' hypothesis consistent with the given data. By choosing the prior probabilities of hypotheses, it becomes possible to quantify the scientific judgment that simpler hypotheses are more likely to be correct. Bayesian analysis also shows that a hypothesis with fewer adjustable parameters intrinsically possesses an enhanced posterior probability, due to the clarity of its predictions.

Subspecialization in the human posterior medial cortex

PubMed Central

Bzdok, Danilo; Heeger, Adrian; Langner, Robert; Laird, Angela R.; Fox, Peter T.; Palomero-Gallagher, Nicola; Vogt, Brent A.; Zilles, Karl; Eickhoff, Simon B.

2014-01-01

The posterior medial cortex (PMC) is particularly poorly understood. Its neural activity changes have been related to highly disparate mental processes. We therefore investigated PMC properties with a data-driven exploratory approach. First, we subdivided the PMC by whole-brain coactivation profiles. Second, functional connectivity of the ensuing PMC regions was compared by task-constrained meta-analytic coactivation mapping (MACM) and task-unconstrained resting-state correlations (RSFC). Third, PMC regions were functionally described by forward/reverse functional inference. A precuneal cluster was mostly connected to the intraparietal sulcus, frontal eye fields, and right temporo-parietal junction; associated with attention and motor tasks. A ventral posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) cluster was mostly connected to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex and middle left inferior parietal cortex (IPC); associated with facial appraisal and language tasks. A dorsal PCC cluster was mostly connected to the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, anterior/posterior IPC, posterior midcingulate cortex, and left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex; associated with delay discounting. A cluster in the retrosplenial cortex was mostly connected to the anterior thalamus and hippocampus. Furthermore, all PMC clusters were congruently coupled with the default mode network according to task-constrained but not task-unconstrained connectivity. We thus identified distinct regions in the PMC and characterized their neural networks and functional implications. PMID:25462801

Ablation of post-surgical intra-atrial reentrant tachycardia. Predilection target sites and mapping approach.

PubMed

Anné, W; van Rensburg, H; Adams, J; Ector, H; Van de Werf, F; Heidbüchel, H

2002-10-01

Atrial arrhythmias are a frequent complication of atrial surgery. The location of these tachycardias is very diverse due to the individual difference in the original anatomy, surgical corrections, and effects of atrial fibrosis. Nevertheless some recurrent patterns are emerging. Forty-five patients underwent 51 ablation procedures between September 1995 and March 2001 using conventional mapping and temperature-controlled ablation. A duadecapolar catheter was swept from anterior to posterior in the right (and/or left) atrium, allowing for rapid mapping followed by entrainment confirmation. Twenty-eight patients had corrected congenital heart disease, 17 surgery for acquired heart disease. One hundred and sixteen arrhythmias were found, 86 circuits were targeted, 81 with success (94%). Despite the heterogeneous anatomy, the same targets were often encountered: the posterior isthmus between the inferior vena cava and the tricuspid ring (62%), the gap between the inferior vena cava and the atriotomy scar (49%), and the region around the atriopulmonary connection in Fontans (two out of four patients). After a mean follow-up of 24 months, 13 patients had a recurrent arrhythmia (29%) after their last procedure. There was a significant association between the number of circuits found during the initial procedure and the likelihood of recurrent arrhythmias. Knowledge of anatomical predilection sites and mapping the right (and/or left) atrium with a 'sweeping Halo technique' allow for effective ablation of most post-surgical atrial tachycardias. Severely damaged atria with multiple arrhythmias may require 'preventive' ablation of all recognizable channels.

International comparative evaluation of knee replacement with fixed or mobile-bearing posterior-stabilized prostheses.

PubMed

Graves, Stephen; Sedrakyan, Art; Baste, Valborg; Gioe, Terence J; Namba, Robert; Martínez Cruz, Olga; Stea, Susanna; Paxton, Elizabeth; Banerjee, Samprit; Isaacs, Abby J; Robertsson, Otto

2014-12-17

Posterior-stabilized total knee prostheses were introduced to address instability secondary to loss of posterior cruciate ligament function, and they have either fixed or mobile bearings. Mobile bearings were developed to improve the function and longevity of total knee prostheses. In this study, the International Consortium of Orthopaedic Registries used a distributed health data network to study a large cohort of posterior-stabilized prostheses to determine if the outcome of a posterior-stabilized total knee prosthesis differs depending on whether it has a fixed or mobile-bearing design. Aggregated registry data were collected with a distributed health data network that was developed by the International Consortium of Orthopaedic Registries to reduce barriers to participation (e.g., security, proprietary, legal, and privacy issues) that have the potential to occur with the alternate centralized data warehouse approach. A distributed health data network is a decentralized model that allows secure storage and analysis of data from different registries. Each registry provided data on mobile and fixed-bearing posterior-stabilized prostheses implanted between 2001 and 2010. Only prostheses associated with primary total knee arthroplasties performed for the treatment of osteoarthritis were included. Prostheses with all types of fixation were included except for those with the rarely used reverse hybrid (cementless tibial and cemented femoral components) fixation. The use of patellar resurfacing was reported. The outcome of interest was time to first revision (for any reason). Multivariate meta-analysis was performed with linear mixed models with survival probability as the unit of analysis. This study includes 137,616 posterior-stabilized knee prostheses; 62% were in female patients, and 17.6% had a mobile bearing. The results of the fixed-effects model indicate that in the first year the mobile-bearing posterior-stabilized prostheses had a significantly higher hazard ratio (1.86) than did the fixed-bearing posterior-stabilized prostheses (95% confidence interval, 1.28 to 2.7; p = 0.001). For all other time intervals, the mobile-bearing posterior-stabilized prostheses had higher hazard ratios; however, these differences were not significant. Mobile-bearing posterior-stabilized prostheses had an increased rate of revision compared with fixed-bearing posterior-stabilized prostheses. This difference was evident in the first year. Copyright © 2014 by The Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery, Incorporated.

Differences in Clinical Features of Methamphetamine Users with Persistent Psychosis and Patients with Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Wang, Liang-Jen; Lin, Shih-Ku; Chen, Yi-Chih; Huang, Ming-Chyi; Chen, Tzu-Ting; Ree, Shao-Chun; Chen, Chih-Ken

Methamphetamine exerts neurotoxic effects and elicits psychotic symptoms. This study attempted to compare clinical differences between methamphetamine users with persistent psychosis (MAP) and patients with schizophrenia. In addition, we examined the discrimination validity by using symptom clusters to differentiate between MAP and schizophrenia. We enrolled 53 MAP patients and 53 patients with schizophrenia. The psychopathology of participants was assessed using the Chinese version of the Diagnostic Interview for Genetic Studies and the 18-item Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale. Logistic regression was used to examine the predicted probability scores of different symptom combinations on discriminating between MAP and schizophrenia. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses and area under the curve (AUC) were further applied to examine the discrimination validity of the predicted probability scores on differentiating between MAP and schizophrenia. We found that MAP and schizophrenia demonstrated similar patterns of delusions. Compared to patients with schizophrenia, MAP experienced significantly higher proportions of visual hallucinations and of somatic or tactile hallucinations. However, MAP exhibited significantly lower severity in conceptual disorganization, mannerism/posturing, blunted affect, emotional withdrawal, and motor retardation compared to patients with schizophrenia. The ROC analysis showed that a predicted probability score combining the aforementioned 7 items of symptoms could significantly differentiate between MAP and schizophrenia (AUC = 0.77). Findings in the current study suggest that nuanced differences might exist in the clinical presentation of secondary psychosis (MAP) and primary psychosis (schizophrenia). Combining the symptoms as a whole may help with differential diagnosis for MAP and schizophrenia. © 2016 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Defecatory dysfunction and fecal incontinence in women with or without posterior vaginal wall prolapse as measured by pelvic organ prolapse quantification (POP-Q).

PubMed

Augusto, Kathiane Lustosa; Bezerra, Leonardo Robson Pinheiro Sobreira; Murad-Regadas, Sthela Maria; Vasconcelos Neto, José Ananias; Vasconcelos, Camila Teixeira Moreira; Karbage, Sara Arcanjo Lino; Bilhar, Andreisa Paiva Monteiro; Regadas, Francisco Sérgio Pinheiro

2017-07-01

Pelvic Floor Dysfunction is a complex condition that may be asymptomatic or may involve a loto f symptoms. This study evaluates defecatory dysfunction, fecal incontinence, and quality of life in relation to presence of posterior vaginal prolapse. 265 patients were divided into two groups according to posterior POP-Q stage: posterior POP-Q stage ≥2 and posterior POP-Q stage <2. The two groups were compared regarding demographic and clinical data; overall POP-Q stage, percentage of patients with defecatory dysfunction, percentage of patients with fecal incontinence, pelvic floor muscle strength, and quality of life scores. The correlation between severity of the prolapse and severity of constipation was calculated using ρ de Spearman (rho). Women with Bp stage ≥2 were significantly older and had significantly higher BMI, numbers of pregnancies and births, and overall POP-Q stage than women with stage <2. No significant differences between the groups were observed regarding proportion of patients with defecatory dysfunction or incontinence, pelvic floor muscle strength, quality of life (ICIQ-SF), or sexual impact (PISQ-12). POP-Q stage did not correlate with severity of constipation and incontinence. General quality of life perception on the SF-36 was significantly worse in patients with POP-Q stage ≥2 than in those with POP-Q stage <2. The lack of a clinically important association between the presence of posterior vaginal prolapse and symptoms of constipation or anal incontinence leads us to agree with the conclusion that posterior vaginal prolapse probably is not an independent cause defecatory dysfunction or fecal incontinence. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Eulerian Mapping Closure Approach for Probability Density Function of Concentration in Shear Flows

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, Guowei; Bushnell, Dennis M. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Eulerian mapping closure approach is developed for uncertainty propagation in computational fluid mechanics. The approach is used to study the Probability Density Function (PDF) for the concentration of species advected by a random shear flow. An analytical argument shows that fluctuation of the concentration field at one point in space is non-Gaussian and exhibits stretched exponential form. An Eulerian mapping approach provides an appropriate approximation to both convection and diffusion terms and leads to a closed mapping equation. The results obtained describe the evolution of the initial Gaussian field, which is in agreement with direct numerical simulations.

Collapse susceptibility mapping in karstified gypsum terrain (Sivas basin - Turkey) by conditional probability, logistic regression, artificial neural network models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yilmaz, Isik; Keskin, Inan; Marschalko, Marian; Bednarik, Martin

2010-05-01

This study compares the GIS based collapse susceptibility mapping methods such as; conditional probability (CP), logistic regression (LR) and artificial neural networks (ANN) applied in gypsum rock masses in Sivas basin (Turkey). Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was first constructed using GIS software. Collapse-related factors, directly or indirectly related to the causes of collapse occurrence, such as distance from faults, slope angle and aspect, topographical elevation, distance from drainage, topographic wetness index- TWI, stream power index- SPI, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) by means of vegetation cover, distance from roads and settlements were used in the collapse susceptibility analyses. In the last stage of the analyses, collapse susceptibility maps were produced from CP, LR and ANN models, and they were then compared by means of their validations. Area Under Curve (AUC) values obtained from all three methodologies showed that the map obtained from ANN model looks like more accurate than the other models, and the results also showed that the artificial neural networks is a usefull tool in preparation of collapse susceptibility map and highly compatible with GIS operating features. Key words: Collapse; doline; susceptibility map; gypsum; GIS; conditional probability; logistic regression; artificial neural networks.

Probabilistic mapping of flood-induced backscatter changes in SAR time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schlaffer, Stefan; Chini, Marco; Giustarini, Laura; Matgen, Patrick

2017-04-01

The information content of flood extent maps can be increased considerably by including information on the uncertainty of the flood area delineation. This additional information can be of benefit in flood forecasting and monitoring. Furthermore, flood probability maps can be converted to binary maps showing flooded and non-flooded areas by applying a threshold probability value pF = 0.5. In this study, a probabilistic change detection approach for flood mapping based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) time series is proposed. For this purpose, conditional probability density functions (PDFs) for land and open water surfaces were estimated from ENVISAT ASAR Wide Swath (WS) time series containing >600 images using a reference mask of permanent water bodies. A pixel-wise harmonic model was used to account for seasonality in backscatter from land areas caused by soil moisture and vegetation dynamics. The approach was evaluated for a large-scale flood event along the River Severn, United Kingdom. The retrieved flood probability maps were compared to a reference flood mask derived from high-resolution aerial imagery by means of reliability diagrams. The obtained performance measures indicate both high reliability and confidence although there was a slight under-estimation of the flood extent, which may in part be attributed to topographically induced radar shadows along the edges of the floodplain. Furthermore, the results highlight the importance of local incidence angle for the separability between flooded and non-flooded areas as specular reflection properties of open water surfaces increase with a more oblique viewing geometry.

Using known map category marginal frequencies to improve estimates of thematic map accuracy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Card, D. H.

1982-01-01

By means of two simple sampling plans suggested in the accuracy-assessment literature, it is shown how one can use knowledge of map-category relative sizes to improve estimates of various probabilities. The fact that maximum likelihood estimates of cell probabilities for the simple random sampling and map category-stratified sampling were identical has permitted a unified treatment of the contingency-table analysis. A rigorous analysis of the effect of sampling independently within map categories is made possible by results for the stratified case. It is noted that such matters as optimal sample size selection for the achievement of a desired level of precision in various estimators are irrelevant, since the estimators derived are valid irrespective of how sample sizes are chosen.

Bayesian Retrieval of Complete Posterior PDFs of Oceanic Rain Rate From Microwave Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chiu, J. Christine; Petty, Grant W.

2005-01-01

This paper presents a new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measurements Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes Theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance our understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, we have conducted sensitivity analyses based on two synthetic datasets for which the true conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak, due to saturation effects. It is also suggested that the choice of the estimators and the prior information are both crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of our Bayesian algorithm is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

Challenges in making a seismic hazard map for Alaska and the Aleutians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wesson, R.L.; Boyd, O.S.; Mueller, C.S.; Frankel, A.D.; Freymueller, J.T.

2008-01-01

We present a summary of the data and analyses leading to the revision of the time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Alaska and the Aleutians. These maps represent a revision of existing maps based on newly obtained data, and reflect best current judgments about methodology and approach. They have been prepared following the procedures and assumptions made in the preparation of the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the lower 48 States, and will be proposed for adoption in future revisions to the International Building Code. We present example maps for peak ground acceleration, 0.2 s spectral amplitude (SA), and 1.0 s SA at a probability level of 2% in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404). In this summary, we emphasize issues encountered in preparation of the maps that motivate or require future investigation and research.

Using Discrete Loss Functions and Weighted Kappa for Classification: An Illustration Based on Bayesian Network Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zwick, Rebecca; Lenaburg, Lubella

2009-01-01

In certain data analyses (e.g., multiple discriminant analysis and multinomial log-linear modeling), classification decisions are made based on the estimated posterior probabilities that individuals belong to each of several distinct categories. In the Bayesian network literature, this type of classification is often accomplished by assigning…

New KF-PP-SVM classification method for EEG in brain-computer interfaces.

PubMed

Yang, Banghua; Han, Zhijun; Zan, Peng; Wang, Qian

2014-01-01

Classification methods are a crucial direction in the current study of brain-computer interfaces (BCIs). To improve the classification accuracy for electroencephalogram (EEG) signals, a novel KF-PP-SVM (kernel fisher, posterior probability, and support vector machine) classification method is developed. Its detailed process entails the use of common spatial patterns to obtain features, based on which the within-class scatter is calculated. Then the scatter is added into the kernel function of a radial basis function to construct a new kernel function. This new kernel is integrated into the SVM to obtain a new classification model. Finally, the output of SVM is calculated based on posterior probability and the final recognition result is obtained. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed KF-PP-SVM method, EEG data collected from laboratory are processed with four different classification schemes (KF-PP-SVM, KF-SVM, PP-SVM, and SVM). The results showed that the overall average improvements arising from the use of the KF-PP-SVM scheme as opposed to KF-SVM, PP-SVM and SVM schemes are 2.49%, 5.83 % and 6.49 % respectively.

Laser Raman detection for oral cancer based on an adaptive Gaussian process classification method with posterior probabilities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Zhanwei; Yang, Yongjian; Bai, Yuan; Wang, Lijun; Su, Le; Chen, Yong; Li, Xianchang; Zhou, Xiaodong; Jia, Jun; Shen, Aiguo; Hu, Jiming

2013-03-01

The existing methods for early and differential diagnosis of oral cancer are limited due to the unapparent early symptoms and the imperfect imaging examination methods. In this paper, the classification models of oral adenocarcinoma, carcinoma tissues and a control group with just four features are established by utilizing the hybrid Gaussian process (HGP) classification algorithm, with the introduction of the mechanisms of noise reduction and posterior probability. HGP shows much better performance in the experimental results. During the experimental process, oral tissues were divided into three groups, adenocarcinoma (n = 87), carcinoma (n = 100) and the control group (n = 134). The spectral data for these groups were collected. The prospective application of the proposed HGP classification method improved the diagnostic sensitivity to 56.35% and the specificity to about 70.00%, and resulted in a Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.36. It is proved that the utilization of HGP in LRS detection analysis for the diagnosis of oral cancer gives accurate results. The prospect of application is also satisfactory.

Bayesian inference for the genetic control of water deficit tolerance in spring wheat by stochastic search variable selection.

PubMed

Safari, Parviz; Danyali, Syyedeh Fatemeh; Rahimi, Mehdi

2018-06-02

Drought is the main abiotic stress seriously influencing wheat production. Information about the inheritance of drought tolerance is necessary to determine the most appropriate strategy to develop tolerant cultivars and populations. In this study, generation means analysis to identify the genetic effects controlling grain yield inheritance in water deficit and normal conditions was considered as a model selection problem in a Bayesian framework. Stochastic search variable selection (SSVS) was applied to identify the most important genetic effects and the best fitted models using different generations obtained from two crosses applying two water regimes in two growing seasons. The SSVS is used to evaluate the effect of each variable on the dependent variable via posterior variable inclusion probabilities. The model with the highest posterior probability is selected as the best model. In this study, the grain yield was controlled by the main effects (additive and non-additive effects) and epistatic. The results demonstrate that breeding methods such as recurrent selection and subsequent pedigree method and hybrid production can be useful to improve grain yield.

Data analysis in emission tomography using emission-count posteriors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sitek, Arkadiusz

2012-11-01

A novel approach to the analysis of emission tomography data using the posterior probability of the number of emissions per voxel (emission count) conditioned on acquired tomographic data is explored. The posterior is derived from the prior and the Poisson likelihood of the emission-count data by marginalizing voxel activities. Based on emission-count posteriors, examples of Bayesian analysis including estimation and classification tasks in emission tomography are provided. The application of the method to computer simulations of 2D tomography is demonstrated. In particular, the minimum-mean-square-error point estimator of the emission count is demonstrated. The process of finding this estimator can be considered as a tomographic image reconstruction technique since the estimates of the number of emissions per voxel divided by voxel sensitivities and acquisition time are the estimates of the voxel activities. As an example of a classification task, a hypothesis stating that some region of interest (ROI) emitted at least or at most r-times the number of events in some other ROI is tested. The ROIs are specified by the user. The analysis described in this work provides new quantitative statistical measures that can be used in decision making in diagnostic imaging using emission tomography.

General Metropolis-Hastings jump diffusions for automatic target recognition in infrared scenes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lanterman, Aaron D.; Miller, Michael I.; Snyder, Donald L.

1997-04-01

To locate and recognize ground-based targets in forward- looking IR (FLIR) images, 3D faceted models with associated pose parameters are formulated to accommodate the variability found in FLIR imagery. Taking a Bayesian approach, scenes are simulated from the emissive characteristics of the CAD models and compared with the collected data by a likelihood function based on sensor statistics. This likelihood is combined with a prior distribution defined over the set of possible scenes to form a posterior distribution. To accommodate scenes with variable numbers of targets, the posterior distribution is defined over parameter vectors of varying dimension. An inference algorithm based on Metropolis-Hastings jump- diffusion processes empirically samples from the posterior distribution, generating configurations of templates and transformations that match the collected sensor data with high probability. The jumps accommodate the addition and deletion of targets and the estimation of target identities; diffusions refine the hypotheses by drifting along the gradient of the posterior distribution with respect to the orientation and position parameters. Previous results on jumps strategies analogous to the Metropolis acceptance/rejection algorithm, with proposals drawn from the prior and accepted based on the likelihood, are extended to encompass general Metropolis-Hastings proposal densities. In particular, the algorithm proposes moves by drawing from the posterior distribution over computationally tractible subsets of the parameter space. The algorithm is illustrated by an implementation on a Silicon Graphics Onyx/Reality Engine.

Topographical relations between the posterior cricothyroid ligament and the inferior laryngeal nerve.

PubMed

Reidenbach, M M

1995-01-01

The posterior cricothyroid ligament and its topographic relation to the inferior laryngeal nerve were studied in 54 human adult male and female larynges. Fourteen specimens were impregnated with curable polymers and cut into 600-800 microns sections along different planes. Forty formalin-fixed hemi-larynges were dissected and various measurements were made. The posterior cricothyroid ligament provides a dorsal strengthening for the joint capsule of the cricothyroid joint. Its fibers spread in a fan-like manner from a small area of origin at the cricoid cartilage to a more extended area of attachment at the inferior thyroid cornu. The ligament consists of one (7.5%) to four (12.5%), in most cases of three (45.0%) or two (35.0%), individual parts oriented from mediocranial to latero-caudal. The inferior laryngeal nerve courses immediately dorsal to the ligament. In 60% it is covered by fibers of the posterior cricoarytenoid muscle, in the remaining 40% it is not. In this latter topographic situation there is almost no soft tissue interposed between the nerve and the hypopharynx. Therefore, the nerve may be exposed to pressure forces exerted from dorsally. It may be pushed against the unyielding posterior cricothyroid ligament and suffer functional or structural impairment. Probably, this mechanism may explain some of the laryngeal nerve lesions described in the literature after insertion of gastric tubes.

Multiple active myofascial trigger points and pressure pain sensitivity maps in the temporalis muscle are related in women with chronic tension type headache.

PubMed

Fernández-de-las-Peñas, César; Caminero, Ana B; Madeleine, Pascal; Guillem-Mesado, Amparo; Ge, Hong-You; Arendt-Nielsen, Lars; Pareja, Juan A

2009-01-01

To describe the common locations of active trigger points (TrPs) in the temporalis muscle and their referred pain patterns in chronic tension type headache (CTTH), and to determine if pressure sensitivity maps of this muscle can be used to describe the spatial distribution of active TrPs. Forty women with CTTH were included. An electronic pressure algometer was used to assess pressure pain thresholds (PPT) from 9 points over each temporalis muscle: 3 points in the anterior, medial and posterior part, respectively. Both muscles were examined for the presence of active TrPs over each of the 9 points. The referred pain pattern of each active TrP was assessed. Two-way analysis of variance detected significant differences in mean PPT levels between the measurement points (F=30.3; P<0.001), but not between sides (F=2.1; P=0.2). PPT scores decreased from the posterior to the anterior column (P<0.001). No differences were found in the number of active TrPs (F=0.3; P=0.9) between the dominant side the nondominant side. Significant differences were found in the distribution of the active TrPs (chi2=12.2; P<0.001): active TrPs were mostly found in the anterior column and in the middle of the muscle belly. The analysis of variance did not detect significant differences in the referred pain pattern between active TrPs (F=1.1, P=0.4). The topographical pressure pain sensitivity maps showed the distinct distribution of the TrPs indicated by locations with low PPTs. Multiple active TrPs in the temporalis muscle were found, particularly in the anterior column and in the middle of the muscle belly. Bilateral posterior to anterior decreased distribution of PPTs in the temporalis muscle in women with CTTH was found. The locations of active TrPs in the temporalis muscle corresponded well to the muscle areas with lower PPT, supporting the relationship between multiple active muscle TrPs and topographical pressure sensitivity maps in the temporalis muscle in women with CTTH.

Elemental mapping of biofortified wheat grains using micro X-ray fluorescence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramos, I.; Pataco, I. M.; Mourinho, M. P.; Lidon, F.; Reboredo, F.; Pessoa, M. F.; Carvalho, M. L.; Santos, J. P.; Guerra, M.

2016-06-01

Micro X-ray fluorescence has been used to obtain elemental maps of biofortified wheat grains. Two varieties of wheat were used in the study, Triticum aestivum L. and Triticum durum desf. Two treatments, with different nutrient concentration, were applied to the plants during the whole plant growth cycle. From the obtained elemental maps it was possible to extract information regarding the plant's physiological processes under the biofortification procedures. Both macro and micronutrients were mapped, providing useful insight into the posterior food processing mechanisms of this biofortified staple food. We have also shown that these kind of studies can now be performed with laboratory benchtop apparatus, rather than using synchrotron radiation, increasing the overall attractiveness of micro X-ray fluorescence in the study of highly heterogeneous biological samples.

Meta-analysis: how does posterior parietal cortex contribute to reasoning?

PubMed Central

Wendelken, Carter

2015-01-01

Reasoning depends on the contribution of posterior parietal cortex (PPC). But PPC is involved in many basic operations—including spatial attention, mathematical cognition, working memory, long-term memory, and language—and the nature of its contribution to reasoning is unclear. Psychological theories of the processes underlying reasoning make divergent claims about the neural systems that are likely to be involved, and better understanding the specific contribution of PPC can help to inform these theories. We set out to address several competing hypotheses, concerning the role of PPC in reasoning: (1) reasoning involves application of formal logic and is dependent on language, with PPC activation for reasoning mainly reflective of linguistic processing; (2) reasoning involves probabilistic computation and is thus dependent on numerical processing mechanisms in PPC; and (3) reasoning is built upon the representation and processing of spatial relations, and PPC activation associated with reasoning reflects spatial processing. We conducted two separate meta-analyses. First, we pooled data from our own studies of reasoning in adults, and examined activation in PPC regions of interest (ROI). Second, we conducted an automated meta-analysis using Neurosynth, in which we examined overlap between activation maps associated with reasoning and maps associated with other key functions of PPC. In both analyses, we observed reasoning-related activation concentrated in the left Inferior Parietal Lobe (IPL). Reasoning maps demonstrated the greatest overlap with mathematical cognition. Maintenance, visuospatial, and phonological processing also demonstrated some overlap with reasoning, but a large portion of the reasoning map did not overlap with the map for any other function. This evidence suggests that the PPC’s contribution to reasoning may be most closely related to its role in mathematical cognition, but that a core component of this contribution may be specific to reasoning. PMID:25653604

Spatial attention improves reliability of fMRI retinotopic mapping signals in occipital and parietal cortex

PubMed Central

Bressler, David W.; Silver, Michael A.

2010-01-01

Spatial attention improves visual perception and increases the amplitude of neural responses in visual cortex. In addition, spatial attention tasks and fMRI have been used to discover topographic visual field representations in regions outside visual cortex. We therefore hypothesized that requiring subjects to attend to a retinotopic mapping stimulus would facilitate the characterization of visual field representations in a number of cortical areas. In our study, subjects attended either a central fixation point or a wedge-shaped stimulus that rotated about the fixation point. Response reliability was assessed by computing coherence between the fMRI time series and a sinusoid with the same frequency as the rotating wedge stimulus. When subjects attended to the rotating wedge instead of ignoring it, the reliability of retinotopic mapping signals increased by approximately 50% in early visual cortical areas (V1, V2, V3, V3A/B, V4) and ventral occipital cortex (VO1) and by approximately 75% in lateral occipital (LO1, LO2) and posterior parietal (IPS0, IPS1 and IPS2) cortical areas. Additionally, one 5-minute run of retinotopic mapping in the attention-to-wedge condition produced responses as reliable as the average of three to five (early visual cortex) or more than five (lateral occipital, ventral occipital, and posterior parietal cortex) attention-to-fixation runs. These results demonstrate that allocating attention to the retinotopic mapping stimulus substantially reduces the amount of scanning time needed to determine the visual field representations in occipital and parietal topographic cortical areas. Attention significantly increased response reliability in every cortical area we examined and may therefore be a general mechanism for improving the fidelity of neural representations of sensory stimuli at multiple levels of the cortical processing hierarchy. PMID:20600961

Analysis of Fundus Shape in Highly Myopic Eyes by Using Curvature Maps Constructed from Optical Coherence Tomography

PubMed Central

Miyake, Masahiro; Yamashiro, Kenji; Akagi-Kurashige, Yumiko; Oishi, Akio; Tsujikawa, Akitaka; Hangai, Masanori; Yoshimura, Nagahisa

2014-01-01

Purpose To evaluate fundus shape in highly myopic eyes using color maps created through optical coherence tomography (OCT) image analysis. Methods We retrospectively evaluated 182 highly myopic eyes from 113 patients. After obtaining 12 lines of 9-mm radial OCT scans with the fovea at the center, the Bruch’s membrane line was plotted and its curvature was measured at 1-µm intervals in each image, which was reflected as a color topography map. For the quantitative analysis of the eye shape, mean absolute curvature and variance of curvature were calculated. Results The color maps allowed staphyloma visualization as a ring of green color at the edge and as that of orange-red color at the bottom. Analyses of mean and variance of curvature revealed that eyes with myopic choroidal neovascularization tended to have relatively flat posterior poles with smooth surfaces, while eyes with chorioretinal atrophy exhibited a steep, curved shape with an undulated surface (P<0.001). Furthermore, eyes with staphylomas and those without clearly differed in terms of mean curvature and the variance of curvature: 98.4% of eyes with staphylomas had mean curvature ≥7.8×10−5 [1/µm] and variance of curvature ≥0.26×10−8 [1/µm]. Conclusions We established a novel method to analyze posterior pole shape by using OCT images to construct curvature maps. Our quantitative analysis revealed that fundus shape is associated with myopic complications. These values were also effective in distinguishing eyes with staphylomas from those without. This tool for the quantitative evaluation of eye shape should facilitate future research of myopic complications. PMID:25259853

Effects of dorzolamide on choroidal blood flow, ciliary blood flow, and aqueous production in rabbits.

PubMed

Reitsamer, Herbert A; Bogner, Barbara; Tockner, Birgit; Kiel, Jeffrey W

2009-05-01

To determine the effects of topical dorzolamide (a carbonic anhydrase inhibitor) on choroidal and ciliary blood flow and the relationship between ciliary blood flow and aqueous flow. The experiments were performed in four groups of pentobarbital-anesthetized rabbits treated with topical dorzolamide (2%, 50 microL). In all groups, intraocular pressure (IOP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) at the eye level were measured continuously by direct cannulation. In group 1, aqueous flow was measured by fluorophotometry before and after dorzolamide treatment. In group 2, aqueous flow was measured after dorzolamide at normal MAP and while MAP was held constant at 80, 55, or 40 mm Hg with occluders on the aorta and vena cava. In group 3, the same MAP levels were used, and ciliary blood flow was measured transsclerally by laser Doppler flowmetry (LDF). In group 4, choroidal blood flow was measured by LDF with the probe tip positioned in the vitreous over the posterior pole during ramp increases and decreases in MAP before and after dorzolamide. Dorzolamide lowered IOP by 19% (P < 0.01) and aqueous flow by 17% (P < 0.01), and increased ciliary blood flow by 18% (P < 0.01), which was associated with a significant reduction in ciliary vasculature resistance (-7%, P < 0.01). Dorzolamide shifted the relationship between ciliary blood flow and aqueous flow downward relative to the previously determined control relationship in the rabbit. Dorzolamide did not alter choroidal blood flow, choroidal vascular resistance, or the choroidal pressure flow relationship. Acute topical dorzolamide is a ciliary vasodilator and has a direct inhibitory effect on aqueous production, but it does not have a detectable effect on choroidal hemodynamics at the posterior pole in the rabbit.

A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, R.W.; Harp, E.L.; Michael, J.A.

2000-01-01

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include: (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24 000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10 m grid spacing using ARC/INFO GIS software on a UNIX computer. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure. ?? 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps; an example from the Los Angeles, California, area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jibson, Randall W.; Harp, Edwin L.; Michael, John A.

1998-01-01

The 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake is the first earthquake for which we have all of the data sets needed to conduct a rigorous regional analysis of seismic slope instability. These data sets include (1) a comprehensive inventory of triggered landslides, (2) about 200 strong-motion records of the mainshock, (3) 1:24,000-scale geologic mapping of the region, (4) extensive data on engineering properties of geologic units, and (5) high-resolution digital elevation models of the topography. All of these data sets have been digitized and rasterized at 10-m grid spacing in the ARC/INFO GIS platform. Combining these data sets in a dynamic model based on Newmark's permanent-deformation (sliding-block) analysis yields estimates of coseismic landslide displacement in each grid cell from the Northridge earthquake. The modeled displacements are then compared with the digital inventory of landslides triggered by the Northridge earthquake to construct a probability curve relating predicted displacement to probability of failure. This probability function can be applied to predict and map the spatial variability in failure probability in any ground-shaking conditions of interest. We anticipate that this mapping procedure will be used to construct seismic landslide hazard maps that will assist in emergency preparedness planning and in making rational decisions regarding development and construction in areas susceptible to seismic slope failure.

Utility-based designs for randomized comparative trials with categorical outcomes

PubMed Central

Murray, Thomas A.; Thall, Peter F.; Yuan, Ying

2016-01-01

A general utility-based testing methodology for design and conduct of randomized comparative clinical trials with categorical outcomes is presented. Numerical utilities of all elementary events are elicited to quantify their desirabilities. These numerical values are used to map the categorical outcome probability vector of each treatment to a mean utility, which is used as a one-dimensional criterion for constructing comparative tests. Bayesian tests are presented, including fixed sample and group sequential procedures, assuming Dirichlet-multinomial models for the priors and likelihoods. Guidelines are provided for establishing priors, eliciting utilities, and specifying hypotheses. Efficient posterior computation is discussed, and algorithms are provided for jointly calibrating test cutoffs and sample size to control overall type I error and achieve specified power. Asymptotic approximations for the power curve are used to initialize the algorithms. The methodology is applied to re-design a completed trial that compared two chemotherapy regimens for chronic lymphocytic leukemia, in which an ordinal efficacy outcome was dichotomized and toxicity was ignored to construct the trial’s design. The Bayesian tests also are illustrated by several types of categorical outcomes arising in common clinical settings. Freely available computer software for implementation is provided. PMID:27189672

Quantitative trait nucleotide analysis using Bayesian model selection.

PubMed

Blangero, John; Goring, Harald H H; Kent, Jack W; Williams, Jeff T; Peterson, Charles P; Almasy, Laura; Dyer, Thomas D

2005-10-01

Although much attention has been given to statistical genetic methods for the initial localization and fine mapping of quantitative trait loci (QTLs), little methodological work has been done to date on the problem of statistically identifying the most likely functional polymorphisms using sequence data. In this paper we provide a general statistical genetic framework, called Bayesian quantitative trait nucleotide (BQTN) analysis, for assessing the likely functional status of genetic variants. The approach requires the initial enumeration of all genetic variants in a set of resequenced individuals. These polymorphisms are then typed in a large number of individuals (potentially in families), and marker variation is related to quantitative phenotypic variation using Bayesian model selection and averaging. For each sequence variant a posterior probability of effect is obtained and can be used to prioritize additional molecular functional experiments. An example of this quantitative nucleotide analysis is provided using the GAW12 simulated data. The results show that the BQTN method may be useful for choosing the most likely functional variants within a gene (or set of genes). We also include instructions on how to use our computer program, SOLAR, for association analysis and BQTN analysis.

Automatic segmentation of the liver using multi-planar anatomy and deformable surface model in abdominal contrast-enhanced CT images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jang, Yujin; Hong, Helen; Chung, Jin Wook; Yoon, Young Ho

2012-02-01

We propose an effective technique for the extraction of liver boundary based on multi-planar anatomy and deformable surface model in abdominal contrast-enhanced CT images. Our method is composed of four main steps. First, for extracting an optimal volume circumscribing a liver, lower and side boundaries are defined by positional information of pelvis and rib. An upper boundary is defined by separating the lungs and heart from CT images. Second, for extracting an initial liver volume, optimal liver volume is smoothed by anisotropic diffusion filtering and is segmented using adaptively selected threshold value. Third, for removing neighbor organs from initial liver volume, morphological opening and connected component labeling are applied to multiple planes. Finally, for refining the liver boundaries, deformable surface model is applied to a posterior liver surface and missing left robe in previous step. Then, probability summation map is generated by calculating regional information of the segmented liver in coronal plane, which is used for restoring the inaccurate liver boundaries. Experimental results show that our segmentation method can accurately extract liver boundaries without leakage to neighbor organs in spite of various liver shape and ambiguous boundary.

The neural correlates of subjective utility of monetary outcome and probability weight in economic and in motor decision under risk

PubMed Central

Wu, Shih-Wei; Delgado, Mauricio R.; Maloney, Laurence T.

2011-01-01

In decision under risk, people choose between lotteries that contain a list of potential outcomes paired with their probabilities of occurrence. We previously developed a method for translating such lotteries to mathematically equivalent motor lotteries. The probability of each outcome in a motor lottery is determined by the subject’s noise in executing a movement. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging in humans to compare the neural correlates of monetary outcome and probability in classical lottery tasks where information about probability was explicitly communicated to the subjects and in mathematically equivalent motor lottery tasks where probability was implicit in the subjects’ own motor noise. We found that activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) quantitatively represent the subjective utility of monetary outcome in both tasks. For probability, we found that the mPFC significantly tracked the distortion of such information in both tasks. Specifically, activity in mPFC represents probability information but not the physical properties of the stimuli correlated with this information. Together, the results demonstrate that mPFC represents probability from two distinct forms of decision under risk. PMID:21677166

The neural correlates of subjective utility of monetary outcome and probability weight in economic and in motor decision under risk.

PubMed

Wu, Shih-Wei; Delgado, Mauricio R; Maloney, Laurence T

2011-06-15

In decision under risk, people choose between lotteries that contain a list of potential outcomes paired with their probabilities of occurrence. We previously developed a method for translating such lotteries to mathematically equivalent "motor lotteries." The probability of each outcome in a motor lottery is determined by the subject's noise in executing a movement. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging in humans to compare the neural correlates of monetary outcome and probability in classical lottery tasks in which information about probability was explicitly communicated to the subjects and in mathematically equivalent motor lottery tasks in which probability was implicit in the subjects' own motor noise. We found that activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and the posterior cingulate cortex quantitatively represent the subjective utility of monetary outcome in both tasks. For probability, we found that the mPFC significantly tracked the distortion of such information in both tasks. Specifically, activity in mPFC represents probability information but not the physical properties of the stimuli correlated with this information. Together, the results demonstrate that mPFC represents probability from two distinct forms of decision under risk.

Determine precipitation rates from visible and infrared satellite images of clouds by pattern recognition technique. Progress Report, 1 Jul. 1985 - 31 Mar. 1987 Ph.D. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weinman, James A.; Garan, Louis

1987-01-01

A more advanced cloud pattern analysis algorithm was subsequently developed to take the shape and brightness of the various clouds into account in a manner that is more consistent with the human analyst's perception of GOES cloud imagery. The results of that classification scheme were compared with precipitation probabilities observed from ships of opportunity off the U.S. east coast to derive empirical regressions between cloud types and precipitation probability. The cloud morphology was then quantitatively and objectively used to map precipitation probabilities during two winter months during which severe cold air outbreaks were observed over the northwest Atlantic. Precipitation probabilities associated with various cloud types are summarized. Maps of precipitation probability derived from the cloud morphology analysis program for two months and the precipitation probability derived from thirty years of ship observation were observed.

Oil spill contamination probability in the southeastern Levantine basin.

PubMed

Goldman, Ron; Biton, Eli; Brokovich, Eran; Kark, Salit; Levin, Noam

2015-02-15

Recent gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean Sea led to multiple operations with substantial economic interest, and with them there is a risk of oil spills and their potential environmental impacts. To examine the potential spatial distribution of this threat, we created seasonal maps of the probability of oil spill pollution reaching an area in the Israeli coastal and exclusive economic zones, given knowledge of its initial sources. We performed simulations of virtual oil spills using realistic atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The resulting maps show dominance of the alongshore northerly current, which causes the high probability areas to be stretched parallel to the coast, increasing contamination probability downstream of source points. The seasonal westerly wind forcing determines how wide the high probability areas are, and may also restrict these to a small coastal region near source points. Seasonal variability in probability distribution, oil state, and pollution time is also discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trellises and Trellis-Based Decoding Algorithms for Linear Block Codes. Part 3; The Map and Related Decoding Algirithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu; Fossorier, Marc

1998-01-01

In a coded communication system with equiprobable signaling, MLD minimizes the word error probability and delivers the most likely codeword associated with the corresponding received sequence. This decoding has two drawbacks. First, minimization of the word error probability is not equivalent to minimization of the bit error probability. Therefore, MLD becomes suboptimum with respect to the bit error probability. Second, MLD delivers a hard-decision estimate of the received sequence, so that information is lost between the input and output of the ML decoder. This information is important in coded schemes where the decoded sequence is further processed, such as concatenated coding schemes, multi-stage and iterative decoding schemes. In this chapter, we first present a decoding algorithm which both minimizes bit error probability, and provides the corresponding soft information at the output of the decoder. This algorithm is referred to as the MAP (maximum aposteriori probability) decoding algorithm.

Detection of the nipple in automated 3D breast ultrasound using coronal slab-average-projection and cumulative probability map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Hannah; Hong, Helen

2014-03-01

We propose an automatic method for nipple detection on 3D automated breast ultrasound (3D ABUS) images using coronal slab-average-projection and cumulative probability map. First, to identify coronal images that appeared remarkable distinction between nipple-areola region and skin, skewness of each coronal image is measured and the negatively skewed images are selected. Then, coronal slab-average-projection image is reformatted from selected images. Second, to localize nipple-areola region, elliptical ROI covering nipple-areola region is detected using Hough ellipse transform in coronal slab-average-projection image. Finally, to separate the nipple from areola region, 3D Otsu's thresholding is applied to the elliptical ROI and cumulative probability map in the elliptical ROI is generated by assigning high probability to low intensity region. False detected small components are eliminated using morphological opening and the center point of detected nipple region is calculated. Experimental results show that our method provides 94.4% nipple detection rate.

Distinct cortical circuit mechanisms for complex forelimb movement and motor map topography.

PubMed

Harrison, Thomas C; Ayling, Oliver G S; Murphy, Timothy H

2012-04-26

Cortical motor maps are the basis of voluntary movement, but they have proven difficult to understand in the context of their underlying neuronal circuits. We applied light-based motor mapping of Channelrhodopsin-2 mice to reveal a functional subdivision of the forelimb motor cortex based on the direction of movement evoked by brief (10 ms) pulses. Prolonged trains of electrical or optogenetic stimulation (100-500 ms) targeted to anterior or posterior subregions of motor cortex evoked reproducible complex movements of the forelimb to distinct positions in space. Blocking excitatory cortical synaptic transmission did not abolish basic motor map topography, but the site-specific expression of complex movements was lost. Our data suggest that the topography of movement maps arises from their segregated output projections, whereas complex movements evoked by prolonged stimulation require intracortical synaptic transmission. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Probability of Elevated Volatile Organic Compound (VOC) Concentrations in Groundwater in the Eagle River Watershed Valley-Fill Aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupert, Michael G.; Plummer, Niel

2009-01-01

This raster data set delineates the predicted probability of elevated volatile organic compound (VOC) concentrations in groundwater in the Eagle River watershed valley-fill aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007. This data set was developed by a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey, Eagle County, the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, the Town of Eagle, the Town of Gypsum, and the Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority. This project was designed to evaluate potential land-development effects on groundwater and surface-water resources so that informed land-use and water management decisions can be made. This groundwater probability map and its associated probability maps was developed as follows: (1) A point data set of wells with groundwater quality and groundwater age data was overlaid with thematic layers of anthropogenic (related to human activities) and hydrogeologic data by using a geographic information system to assign each well values for depth to groundwater, distance to major streams and canals, distance to gypsum beds, precipitation, soils, and well depth. These data then were downloaded to a statistical software package for analysis by logistic regression. (2) Statistical models predicting the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations, the probability of unmixed young water (using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities), and the probability of elevated volatile organic compound concentrations were developed using logistic regression techniques. (3) The statistical models were entered into a GIS and the probability map was constructed.

Probability of Elevated Nitrate Concentrations in Groundwater in the Eagle River Watershed Valley-Fill Aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupert, Michael G.; Plummer, Niel

2009-01-01

This raster data set delineates the predicted probability of elevated nitrate concentrations in groundwater in the Eagle River watershed valley-fill aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007. This data set was developed by a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey, Eagle County, the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, the Town of Eagle, the Town of Gypsum, and the Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority. This project was designed to evaluate potential land-development effects on groundwater and surface-water resources so that informed land-use and water management decisions can be made. This groundwater probability map and its associated probability maps was developed as follows: (1) A point data set of wells with groundwater quality and groundwater age data was overlaid with thematic layers of anthropogenic (related to human activities) and hydrogeologic data by using a geographic information system to assign each well values for depth to groundwater, distance to major streams and canals, distance to gypsum beds, precipitation, soils, and well depth. These data then were downloaded to a statistical software package for analysis by logistic regression. (2) Statistical models predicting the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations, the probability of unmixed young water (using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities), and the probability of elevated volatile organic compound concentrations were developed using logistic regression techniques. (3) The statistical models were entered into a GIS and the probability map was constructed.

Automatic mapping of event landslides at basin scale in Taiwan using a Montecarlo approach and synthetic land cover fingerprints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondini, Alessandro C.; Chang, Kang-Tsung; Chiang, Shou-Hao; Schlögel, Romy; Notarnicola, Claudia; Saito, Hitoshi

2017-12-01

We propose a framework to systematically generate event landslide inventory maps from satellite images in southern Taiwan, where landslides are frequent and abundant. The spectral information is used to assess the pixel land cover class membership probability through a Maximum Likelihood classifier trained with randomly generated synthetic land cover spectral fingerprints, which are obtained from an independent training images dataset. Pixels are classified as landslides when the calculated landslide class membership probability, weighted by a susceptibility model, is higher than membership probabilities of other classes. We generated synthetic fingerprints from two FORMOSAT-2 images acquired in 2009 and tested the procedure on two other images, one in 2005 and the other in 2009. We also obtained two landslide maps through manual interpretation. The agreement between the two sets of inventories is given by the Cohen's k coefficients of 0.62 and 0.64, respectively. This procedure can now classify a new FORMOSAT-2 image automatically facilitating the production of landslide inventory maps.

White Matter Integrity Linked To Functional Impairments in Aging and Early Alzheimer’s Disease

PubMed Central

Kavcic, Voyko; Ni, Hongyan; Zhu, Tong; Zhong, Jianhui; Duffy, Charles J.

2008-01-01

Background Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is associated with changes in cerebral white matter (WM) but the functional significance of such findings is not yet established. We hypothesized that diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) might reveal links between regional WM changes and specific neuropsychologically and psychophysically defined impairments in early AD. Methods Older adult control subjects (OA, n=18) and mildly impaired AD patients (n=14) underwent neuropsychological and visual perceptual testing along with DTI of cerebral WM. DTI yielded factional anisotropy (FA) and mean diffusivity () maps for nine ROIs in three brain regions that were then compared to the performance measures. Results AD patients showed non-significant trends toward lower FAs in the posterior region’s callosal and sub-cortical ROIs. However, posterior callosal FA was significantly correlated with verbal fluency and figural memory impairments, whereas posterior subcortical FA was correlated with delayed verbal memory, figural memory, and optic flow perceptual impairments. Conclusions WM changes in early AD are concentrated in posterior cerebral areas with distributions that correspond to specific functional impairments. DTI can be used to assess regional pathology related to individual’s deficits in early AD. PMID:19012862

The recovery of damaged paraspinal muscles by posterior surgical treatment for patients with lumbar degenerative diseases and its clinical consequence.

PubMed

Cha, Jae-Ryong; Kim, Yong-Chan; Yoon, Wan-Keun; Lee, Won-Gyu; Kim, Tae-Hwan; Oh, Jae-Keun; Kim, Seok-Woo; Ohn, Suk Hoon; Cui, Ji Hao

2017-01-01

Posterior lumbar surgery can lead to damage on paraspinal muscles. Our study aimed to examine the recovery in the denervated paraspinal muscles by posterior lumbar surgery and to determine that of improvement in the lower back pain (LBP). Depending on surgical treatments, the patients were divided into two groups: The group I (interspinous implantation with decompression) and II (posterior lumbar interbody fusion with decompression). The paraspinal mapping score was recorded for individual muscle. In the group I, there was reinnervation in the denervated multifidus and erector spinae at the upper, surgical and lower levels at 12 months. In the group II, there was reinnervation in the denervated erector spinae at the upper, surgical and lower levels at 12 months. There was significant aggravation in the LBP in both groups at immediate postoperative. But there was significant improvement in it at 6 months in the group I and at 12 months in the group II. There was reinnervation in not only denervated multifidus and erector spinae at 12 months following interspinous ligament stabilization but also in denervated erector spinae at 12 months following pedicle screw fixation with fusion.

Decreased Metabolism in the Posterior Medial Network with Concomitantly Increased Metabolism in the Anterior Temporal Network During Transient Global Amnesia.

PubMed

Yi, SangHak; Park, Young Ho; Jang, Jae-Won; Lim, Jae-Sung; Chun, In Kook; Kim, SangYun

2018-05-01

Perturbation of corticohippocampal circuits is a key step in the pathogenesis of transient global amnesia. We evaluated the spatial distribution of altered cerebral metabolism to determine the location of the corticohippocampal circuits perturbed during the acute stage of transient global amnesia. A consecutive series of 12 patients with transient global amnesia who underwent 18 F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography within 3 days after symptom onset was identified. We used statistical parametric mapping with two contrasts to identify regions of decreased and increased brain metabolism in transient global amnesia patients compared with 25 age-matched controls. Transient global amnesia patients showed hypometabolic clusters in the left temporal and bilateral parieto-occipital regions that belong to the posterior medial network as well as, hypermetabolic clusters in the bilateral inferior frontal regions that belong to the anterior temporal network. The posterior medial and anterior temporal networks are the two main corticohippocampal circuits involved in memory-guided behavior. Decreased metabolism in the posterior medial network might explain the impairment of episodic memory observed during the acute stage of transient global amnesia. Concomitant increased metabolism within the anterior temporal network might occur as a compensatory mechanism.

Predictive coarse-graining

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schöberl, Markus; Zabaras, Nicholas; Koutsourelakis, Phaedon-Stelios

2017-03-01

We propose a data-driven, coarse-graining formulation in the context of equilibrium statistical mechanics. In contrast to existing techniques which are based on a fine-to-coarse map, we adopt the opposite strategy by prescribing a probabilistic coarse-to-fine map. This corresponds to a directed probabilistic model where the coarse variables play the role of latent generators of the fine scale (all-atom) data. From an information-theoretic perspective, the framework proposed provides an improvement upon the relative entropy method [1] and is capable of quantifying the uncertainty due to the information loss that unavoidably takes place during the coarse-graining process. Furthermore, it can be readily extended to a fully Bayesian model where various sources of uncertainties are reflected in the posterior of the model parameters. The latter can be used to produce not only point estimates of fine-scale reconstructions or macroscopic observables, but more importantly, predictive posterior distributions on these quantities. Predictive posterior distributions reflect the confidence of the model as a function of the amount of data and the level of coarse-graining. The issues of model complexity and model selection are seamlessly addressed by employing a hierarchical prior that favors the discovery of sparse solutions, revealing the most prominent features in the coarse-grained model. A flexible and parallelizable Monte Carlo - Expectation-Maximization (MC-EM) scheme is proposed for carrying out inference and learning tasks. A comparative assessment of the proposed methodology is presented for a lattice spin system and the SPC/E water model.

Predictive coarse-graining

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schöberl, Markus, E-mail: m.schoeberl@tum.de; Zabaras, Nicholas; Department of Aerospace and Mechanical Engineering, University of Notre Dame, 365 Fitzpatrick Hall, Notre Dame, IN 46556

We propose a data-driven, coarse-graining formulation in the context of equilibrium statistical mechanics. In contrast to existing techniques which are based on a fine-to-coarse map, we adopt the opposite strategy by prescribing a probabilistic coarse-to-fine map. This corresponds to a directed probabilistic model where the coarse variables play the role of latent generators of the fine scale (all-atom) data. From an information-theoretic perspective, the framework proposed provides an improvement upon the relative entropy method and is capable of quantifying the uncertainty due to the information loss that unavoidably takes place during the coarse-graining process. Furthermore, it can be readily extendedmore » to a fully Bayesian model where various sources of uncertainties are reflected in the posterior of the model parameters. The latter can be used to produce not only point estimates of fine-scale reconstructions or macroscopic observables, but more importantly, predictive posterior distributions on these quantities. Predictive posterior distributions reflect the confidence of the model as a function of the amount of data and the level of coarse-graining. The issues of model complexity and model selection are seamlessly addressed by employing a hierarchical prior that favors the discovery of sparse solutions, revealing the most prominent features in the coarse-grained model. A flexible and parallelizable Monte Carlo – Expectation–Maximization (MC-EM) scheme is proposed for carrying out inference and learning tasks. A comparative assessment of the proposed methodology is presented for a lattice spin system and the SPC/E water model.« less

Functional Characterization and Differential Coactivation Patterns of Two Cytoarchitectonic Visual Areas on the Human Posterior Fusiform Gyrus

PubMed Central

Caspers, Julian; Zilles, Karl; Amunts, Katrin; Laird, Angela R.; Fox, Peter T.; Eickhoff, Simon B.

2016-01-01

The ventral stream of the human extrastriate visual cortex shows a considerable functional heterogeneity from early visual processing (posterior) to higher, domain-specific processing (anterior). The fusiform gyrus hosts several of those “high-level” functional areas. We recently found a subdivision of the posterior fusiform gyrus on the microstructural level, that is, two distinct cytoarchitectonic areas, FG1 and FG2 (Caspers et al., Brain Structure & Function, 2013). To gain a first insight in the function of these two areas, here we studied their behavioral involvement and coactivation patterns by means of meta-analytic connectivity modeling based on the BrainMap database (www.brainmap.org), using probabilistic maps of these areas as seed regions. The coactivation patterns of the areas support the concept of a common involvement in a core network subserving different cognitive tasks, that is, object recognition, visual language perception, or visual attention. In addition, the analysis supports the previous cytoarchitectonic parcellation, indicating that FG1 appears as a transitional area between early and higher visual cortex and FG2 as a higher-order one. The latter area is furthermore lateralized, as it shows strong relations to the visual language processing system in the left hemisphere, while its right side is stronger associated with face selective regions. These findings indicate that functional lateralization of area FG2 relies on a different pattern of connectivity rather than side-specific cytoarchitectonic features. PMID:24038902

NIMROD: a program for inference via a normal approximation of the posterior in models with random effects based on ordinary differential equations.

PubMed

Prague, Mélanie; Commenges, Daniel; Guedj, Jérémie; Drylewicz, Julia; Thiébaut, Rodolphe

2013-08-01

Models based on ordinary differential equations (ODE) are widespread tools for describing dynamical systems. In biomedical sciences, data from each subject can be sparse making difficult to precisely estimate individual parameters by standard non-linear regression but information can often be gained from between-subjects variability. This makes natural the use of mixed-effects models to estimate population parameters. Although the maximum likelihood approach is a valuable option, identifiability issues favour Bayesian approaches which can incorporate prior knowledge in a flexible way. However, the combination of difficulties coming from the ODE system and from the presence of random effects raises a major numerical challenge. Computations can be simplified by making a normal approximation of the posterior to find the maximum of the posterior distribution (MAP). Here we present the NIMROD program (normal approximation inference in models with random effects based on ordinary differential equations) devoted to the MAP estimation in ODE models. We describe the specific implemented features such as convergence criteria and an approximation of the leave-one-out cross-validation to assess the model quality of fit. In pharmacokinetics models, first, we evaluate the properties of this algorithm and compare it with FOCE and MCMC algorithms in simulations. Then, we illustrate NIMROD use on Amprenavir pharmacokinetics data from the PUZZLE clinical trial in HIV infected patients. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Hybrid Hierarchical Approach for Brain Tissue Segmentation by Combining Brain Atlas and Least Square Support Vector Machine

PubMed Central

Kasiri, Keyvan; Kazemi, Kamran; Dehghani, Mohammad Javad; Helfroush, Mohammad Sadegh

2013-01-01

In this paper, we present a new semi-automatic brain tissue segmentation method based on a hybrid hierarchical approach that combines a brain atlas as a priori information and a least-square support vector machine (LS-SVM). The method consists of three steps. In the first two steps, the skull is removed and the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) is extracted. These two steps are performed using the toolbox FMRIB's automated segmentation tool integrated in the FSL software (FSL-FAST) developed in Oxford Centre for functional MRI of the brain (FMRIB). Then, in the third step, the LS-SVM is used to segment grey matter (GM) and white matter (WM). The training samples for LS-SVM are selected from the registered brain atlas. The voxel intensities and spatial positions are selected as the two feature groups for training and test. SVM as a powerful discriminator is able to handle nonlinear classification problems; however, it cannot provide posterior probability. Thus, we use a sigmoid function to map the SVM output into probabilities. The proposed method is used to segment CSF, GM and WM from the simulated magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) using Brainweb MRI simulator and real data provided by Internet Brain Segmentation Repository. The semi-automatically segmented brain tissues were evaluated by comparing to the corresponding ground truth. The Dice and Jaccard similarity coefficients, sensitivity and specificity were calculated for the quantitative validation of the results. The quantitative results show that the proposed method segments brain tissues accurately with respect to corresponding ground truth. PMID:24696800

Chemical Source Localization Fusing Concentration Information in the Presence of Chemical Background Noise.

PubMed

Pomareda, Víctor; Magrans, Rudys; Jiménez-Soto, Juan M; Martínez, Dani; Tresánchez, Marcel; Burgués, Javier; Palacín, Jordi; Marco, Santiago

2017-04-20

We present the estimation of a likelihood map for the location of the source of a chemical plume dispersed under atmospheric turbulence under uniform wind conditions. The main contribution of this work is to extend previous proposals based on Bayesian inference with binary detections to the use of concentration information while at the same time being robust against the presence of background chemical noise. For that, the algorithm builds a background model with robust statistics measurements to assess the posterior probability that a given chemical concentration reading comes from the background or from a source emitting at a distance with a specific release rate. In addition, our algorithm allows multiple mobile gas sensors to be used. Ten realistic simulations and ten real data experiments are used for evaluation purposes. For the simulations, we have supposed that sensors are mounted on cars which do not have among its main tasks navigating toward the source. To collect the real dataset, a special arena with induced wind is built, and an autonomous vehicle equipped with several sensors, including a photo ionization detector (PID) for sensing chemical concentration, is used. Simulation results show that our algorithm, provides a better estimation of the source location even for a low background level that benefits the performance of binary version. The improvement is clear for the synthetic data while for real data the estimation is only slightly better, probably because our exploration arena is not able to provide uniform wind conditions. Finally, an estimation of the computational cost of the algorithmic proposal is presented.

An Empirical Bayes Approach to Spatial Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, C. N.; Kostal, H.

1983-01-01

Multi-channel LANDSAT data are collected in several passes over agricultural areas during the growing season. How empirical Bayes modeling can be used to develop crop identification and discrimination techniques that account for spatial correlation in such data is considered. The approach models the unobservable parameters and the data separately, hoping to take advantage of the fact that the bulk of spatial correlation lies in the parameter process. The problem is then framed in terms of estimating posterior probabilities of crop types for each spatial area. Some empirical Bayes spatial estimation methods are used to estimate the logits of these probabilities.

Method for removing atomic-model bias in macromolecular crystallography

DOEpatents

Terwilliger, Thomas C [Santa Fe, NM

2006-08-01

Structure factor bias in an electron density map for an unknown crystallographic structure is minimized by using information in a first electron density map to elicit expected structure factor information. Observed structure factor amplitudes are combined with a starting set of crystallographic phases to form a first set of structure factors. A first electron density map is then derived and features of the first electron density map are identified to obtain expected distributions of electron density. Crystallographic phase probability distributions are established for possible crystallographic phases of reflection k, and the process is repeated as k is indexed through all of the plurality of reflections. An updated electron density map is derived from the crystallographic phase probability distributions for each one of the reflections. The entire process is then iterated to obtain a final set of crystallographic phases with minimum bias from known electron density maps.

Lesion localization of speech comprehension deficits in chronic aphasia

PubMed Central

Binder, Jeffrey R.; Humphries, Colin; Gross, William L.; Book, Diane S.

2017-01-01

Objective: Voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping (VLSM) was used to localize impairments specific to multiword (phrase and sentence) spoken language comprehension. Methods: Participants were 51 right-handed patients with chronic left hemisphere stroke. They performed an auditory description naming (ADN) task requiring comprehension of a verbal description, an auditory sentence comprehension (ASC) task, and a picture naming (PN) task. Lesions were mapped using high-resolution MRI. VLSM analyses identified the lesion correlates of ADN and ASC impairment, first with no control measures, then adding PN impairment as a covariate to control for cognitive and language processes not specific to spoken language. Results: ADN and ASC deficits were associated with lesions in a distributed frontal-temporal parietal language network. When PN impairment was included as a covariate, both ADN and ASC deficits were specifically correlated with damage localized to the mid-to-posterior portion of the middle temporal gyrus (MTG). Conclusions: Damage to the mid-to-posterior MTG is associated with an inability to integrate multiword utterances during comprehension of spoken language. Impairment of this integration process likely underlies the speech comprehension deficits characteristic of Wernicke aphasia. PMID:28179469

Lesion localization of speech comprehension deficits in chronic aphasia.

PubMed

Pillay, Sara B; Binder, Jeffrey R; Humphries, Colin; Gross, William L; Book, Diane S

2017-03-07

Voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping (VLSM) was used to localize impairments specific to multiword (phrase and sentence) spoken language comprehension. Participants were 51 right-handed patients with chronic left hemisphere stroke. They performed an auditory description naming (ADN) task requiring comprehension of a verbal description, an auditory sentence comprehension (ASC) task, and a picture naming (PN) task. Lesions were mapped using high-resolution MRI. VLSM analyses identified the lesion correlates of ADN and ASC impairment, first with no control measures, then adding PN impairment as a covariate to control for cognitive and language processes not specific to spoken language. ADN and ASC deficits were associated with lesions in a distributed frontal-temporal parietal language network. When PN impairment was included as a covariate, both ADN and ASC deficits were specifically correlated with damage localized to the mid-to-posterior portion of the middle temporal gyrus (MTG). Damage to the mid-to-posterior MTG is associated with an inability to integrate multiword utterances during comprehension of spoken language. Impairment of this integration process likely underlies the speech comprehension deficits characteristic of Wernicke aphasia. © 2017 American Academy of Neurology.

Automated reliability assessment for spectroscopic redshift measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jamal, S.; Le Brun, V.; Le Fèvre, O.; Vibert, D.; Schmitt, A.; Surace, C.; Copin, Y.; Garilli, B.; Moresco, M.; Pozzetti, L.

2018-03-01

Context. Future large-scale surveys, such as the ESA Euclid mission, will produce a large set of galaxy redshifts (≥106) that will require fully automated data-processing pipelines to analyze the data, extract crucial information and ensure that all requirements are met. A fundamental element in these pipelines is to associate to each galaxy redshift measurement a quality, or reliability, estimate. Aim. In this work, we introduce a new approach to automate the spectroscopic redshift reliability assessment based on machine learning (ML) and characteristics of the redshift probability density function. Methods: We propose to rephrase the spectroscopic redshift estimation into a Bayesian framework, in order to incorporate all sources of information and uncertainties related to the redshift estimation process and produce a redshift posterior probability density function (PDF). To automate the assessment of a reliability flag, we exploit key features in the redshift posterior PDF and machine learning algorithms. Results: As a working example, public data from the VIMOS VLT Deep Survey is exploited to present and test this new methodology. We first tried to reproduce the existing reliability flags using supervised classification in order to describe different types of redshift PDFs, but due to the subjective definition of these flags (classification accuracy 58%), we soon opted for a new homogeneous partitioning of the data into distinct clusters via unsupervised classification. After assessing the accuracy of the new clusters via resubstitution and test predictions (classification accuracy 98%), we projected unlabeled data from preliminary mock simulations for the Euclid space mission into this mapping to predict their redshift reliability labels. Conclusions: Through the development of a methodology in which a system can build its own experience to assess the quality of a parameter, we are able to set a preliminary basis of an automated reliability assessment for spectroscopic redshift measurements. This newly-defined method is very promising for next-generation large spectroscopic surveys from the ground and in space, such as Euclid and WFIRST. A table of the reclassified VVDS redshifts and reliability is only available at the CDS via anonymous ftp to http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr (http://130.79.128.5) or via http://cdsarc.u-strasbg.fr/viz-bin/qcat?J/A+A/611/A53

Spatial vent opening probability map of El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becerril, Laura; Cappello, Annalisa; Galindo, Inés; Neri, Marco; Del Negro, Ciro

2013-04-01

The assessment of the probable spatial distribution of new eruptions is useful to manage and reduce the volcanic risk. It can be achieved in different ways, but it becomes especially hard when dealing with volcanic areas less studied, poorly monitored and characterized by a low frequent activity, as El Hierro. Even though it is the youngest of the Canary Islands, before the 2011 eruption in the "Las Calmas Sea", El Hierro had been the least studied volcanic Island of the Canaries, with more historically devoted attention to La Palma, Tenerife and Lanzarote. We propose a probabilistic method to build the susceptibility map of El Hierro, i.e. the spatial distribution of vent opening for future eruptions, based on the mathematical analysis of the volcano-structural data collected mostly on the Island and, secondly, on the submerged part of the volcano, up to a distance of ~10-20 km from the coast. The volcano-structural data were collected through new fieldwork measurements, bathymetric information, and analysis of geological maps, orthophotos and aerial photographs. They have been divided in different datasets and converted into separate and weighted probability density functions, which were then included in a non-homogeneous Poisson process to produce the volcanic susceptibility map. Future eruptive events on El Hierro is mainly concentrated on the rifts zones, extending also beyond the shoreline. The major probabilities to host new eruptions are located on the distal parts of the South and West rifts, with the highest probability reached in the south-western area of the West rift. High probabilities are also observed in the Northeast and South rifts, and the submarine parts of the rifts. This map represents the first effort to deal with the volcanic hazard at El Hierro and can be a support tool for decision makers in land planning, emergency plans and civil defence actions.

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River drainage basin, southeast Minnesota, and the St. Louis River drainage basin, northeast Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Erik A.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Lorenz, David L.; Jacobsen, Katrin E.

2017-12-27

Streamflow distribution maps for the Cannon River and St. Louis River drainage basins were developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Legislative-Citizen Commission on Minnesota Resources, to illustrate relative and cumulative streamflow distributions. The Cannon River was selected to provide baseline data to assess the effects of potential surficial sand mining, and the St. Louis River was selected to determine the effects of ongoing Mesabi Iron Range mining. Each drainage basin (Cannon, St. Louis) was subdivided into nested drainage basins: the Cannon River was subdivided into 152 nested drainage basins, and the St. Louis River was subdivided into 353 nested drainage basins. For each smaller drainage basin, the estimated volumes of groundwater discharge (as base flow) and surface runoff flowing into all surface-water features were displayed under the following conditions: (1) extreme low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.95; (2) low-flow conditions, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.90; (3) a median condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.50; and (4) a high-flow condition, comparable to an exceedance-probability quantile of 0.02.Streamflow distribution maps were developed using flow-duration curve exceedance-probability quantiles in conjunction with Soil-Water-Balance model outputs; both the flow-duration curve and Soil-Water-Balance models were built upon previously published U.S. Geological Survey reports. The selected streamflow distribution maps provide a proactive water management tool for State cooperators by illustrating flow rates during a range of hydraulic conditions. Furthermore, after the nested drainage basins are highlighted in terms of surface-water flows, the streamflows can be evaluated in the context of meeting specific ecological flows under different flow regimes and potentially assist with decisions regarding groundwater and surface-water appropriations. Presented streamflow distribution maps are foundational work intended to support the development of additional streamflow distribution maps that include statistical constraints on the selected flow conditions.

Application of Posterior Thigh Three-Dimensional Profunda Artery Perforator Perforasomes in Refining Next-Generation Flap Designs: Transverse, Vertical, and S-Shaped Profunda Artery Perforator Flaps.

PubMed

Mohan, Anita T; Zhu, Lin; Sur, Yoo Joon; Morsy, Mohamed; Michalak, Gregory J; Lachman, Nirusha; Rammos, Charalambos K; Saint-Cyr, Michel

2017-04-01

This study aimed to delineate and compare the hot spots and three-dimensional vascular territories of dominant profunda artery perforators in the posterior thigh region, and modifications in flap design are discussed. Twenty-nine posterior thigh flaps were raised in fresh cadaveric specimens, and profunda artery perforators were documented. Dominant perforators were injected with iodinated contrast to assess perforasomes using computed tomographic angiography. Analysis with three-dimensional rendering and volume calculations of perfusion patterns was performed. In total, 316 perforators were mapped and 33 perforators were injected for analysis. The hot spot for dominant perforators was the proximal medial quadrant, 5 to 10 cm from the inferior gluteal crease, with two smaller hot spots in the upper lateral and distal posterior midline. Although 69 percent were musculocutaneous, distal perforators were predominantly septocutaneous in the posterior midline, 5 to 8 cm from the popliteal crease. Proximal perforators were classified into first (most proximal) and second perforators, and their median perforasome was 233 and 286.4 cm, respectively (p = 0.86). There were no significant differences between proximal and distal perforators in perforasome surface areas, percentage areas perfused, and perforasome volumes. Large linking vessel networks were attributed to a broader perforasome and greater overlap between adjacent or distal perforators. Dominant linking vessels and recurrent flow through the subdermal plexus contribute to the robust vascular supply of profunda artery perforator flaps. Posterior thigh region perforator hot spots and their perfusion characteristics can inform the potential limits, orientation, and modifications of flap or skin paddle designs.

To P or Not to P: Backing Bayesian Statistics.

PubMed

Buchinsky, Farrel J; Chadha, Neil K

2017-12-01

In biomedical research, it is imperative to differentiate chance variation from truth before we generalize what we see in a sample of subjects to the wider population. For decades, we have relied on null hypothesis significance testing, where we calculate P values for our data to decide whether to reject a null hypothesis. This methodology is subject to substantial misinterpretation and errant conclusions. Instead of working backward by calculating the probability of our data if the null hypothesis were true, Bayesian statistics allow us instead to work forward, calculating the probability of our hypothesis given the available data. This methodology gives us a mathematical means of incorporating our "prior probabilities" from previous study data (if any) to produce new "posterior probabilities." Bayesian statistics tell us how confidently we should believe what we believe. It is time to embrace and encourage their use in our otolaryngology research.

Cosmological parameters, shear maps and power spectra from CFHTLenS using Bayesian hierarchical inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alsing, Justin; Heavens, Alan; Jaffe, Andrew H.

2017-04-01

We apply two Bayesian hierarchical inference schemes to infer shear power spectra, shear maps and cosmological parameters from the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHTLenS) weak lensing survey - the first application of this method to data. In the first approach, we sample the joint posterior distribution of the shear maps and power spectra by Gibbs sampling, with minimal model assumptions. In the second approach, we sample the joint posterior of the shear maps and cosmological parameters, providing a new, accurate and principled approach to cosmological parameter inference from cosmic shear data. As a first demonstration on data, we perform a two-bin tomographic analysis to constrain cosmological parameters and investigate the possibility of photometric redshift bias in the CFHTLenS data. Under the baseline ΛCDM (Λ cold dark matter) model, we constrain S_8 = σ _8(Ω _m/0.3)^{0.5} = 0.67+0.03-0.03 (68 per cent), consistent with previous CFHTLenS analyses but in tension with Planck. Adding neutrino mass as a free parameter, we are able to constrain ∑mν < 4.6 eV (95 per cent) using CFHTLenS data alone. Including a linear redshift-dependent photo-z bias Δz = p2(z - p1), we find p_1=-0.25+0.53-0.60 and p_2 = -0.15+0.17-0.15, and tension with Planck is only alleviated under very conservative prior assumptions. Neither the non-minimal neutrino mass nor photo-z bias models are significantly preferred by the CFHTLenS (two-bin tomography) data.

Robust isotropic super-resolution by maximizing a Laplace posterior for MRI volumes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Xian-Hua; Iwamoto, Yutaro; Shiino, Akihiko; Chen, Yen-Wei

2014-03-01

Magnetic resonance imaging can only acquire volume data with finite resolution due to various factors. In particular, the resolution in one direction (such as the slice direction) is much lower than others (such as the in-plane direction), yielding un-realistic visualizations. This study explores to reconstruct MRI isotropic resolution volumes from three orthogonal scans. This proposed super- resolution reconstruction is formulated as a maximum a posterior (MAP) problem, which relies on the generation model of the acquired scans from the unknown high-resolution volumes. Generally, the deviation ensemble of the reconstructed high-resolution (HR) volume from the available LR ones in the MAP is represented as a Gaussian distribution, which usually results in some noise and artifacts in the reconstructed HR volume. Therefore, this paper investigates a robust super-resolution by formulating the deviation set as a Laplace distribution, which assumes sparsity in the deviation ensemble based on the possible insight of the appeared large values only around some unexpected regions. In addition, in order to achieve reliable HR MRI volume, we integrates the priors such as bilateral total variation (BTV) and non-local mean (NLM) into the proposed MAP framework for suppressing artifacts and enriching visual detail. We validate the proposed robust SR strategy using MRI mouse data with high-definition resolution in two direction and low-resolution in one direction, which are imaged in three orthogonal scans: axial, coronal and sagittal planes. Experiments verifies that the proposed strategy can achieve much better HR MRI volumes than the conventional MAP method even with very high-magnification factor: 10.

Investigation of an Optimum Detection Scheme for a Star-Field Mapping System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Aldridge, M. D.; Credeur, L.

1970-01-01

An investigation was made to determine the optimum detection scheme for a star-field mapping system that uses coded detection resulting from starlight shining through specially arranged multiple slits of a reticle. The computer solution of equations derived from a theoretical model showed that the greatest probability of detection for a given star and background intensity occurred with the use of a single transparent slit. However, use of multiple slits improved the system's ability to reject the detection of undesirable lower intensity stars, but only by decreasing the probability of detection for lower intensity stars to be mapped. Also, it was found that the coding arrangement affected the root-mean-square star-position error and that detection is possible with error in the system's detected spin rate, though at a reduced probability.

Probabilistic Inference: Task Dependency and Individual Differences of Probability Weighting Revealed by Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling

PubMed Central

Boos, Moritz; Seer, Caroline; Lange, Florian; Kopp, Bruno

2016-01-01

Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities) by two (likelihoods) design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behavior. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted) S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model's success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modeling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision. PMID:27303323

Intervals for posttest probabilities: a comparison of 5 methods.

PubMed

Mossman, D; Berger, J O

2001-01-01

Several medical articles discuss methods of constructing confidence intervals for single proportions and the likelihood ratio, but scant attention has been given to the systematic study of intervals for the posterior odds, or the positive predictive value, of a test. The authors describe 5 methods of constructing confidence intervals for posttest probabilities when estimates of sensitivity, specificity, and the pretest probability of a disorder are derived from empirical data. They then evaluate each method to determine how well the intervals' coverage properties correspond to their nominal value. When the estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivity, and specificity are derived from more than 80 subjects and are not close to 0 or 1, all methods generate intervals with appropriate coverage properties. When these conditions are not met, however, the best-performing method is an objective Bayesian approach implemented by a simple simulation using a spreadsheet. Physicians and investigators can generate accurate confidence intervals for posttest probabilities in small-sample situations using the objective Bayesian approach.

Higher-dimensional attractors with absolutely continuous invariant probability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bocker, Carlos; Bortolotti, Ricardo

2018-05-01

Consider a dynamical system given by , where E is a linear expanding map of , C is a linear contracting map of and f is in . We provide sufficient conditions for E that imply the existence of an open set of pairs for which the corresponding dynamic T admits a unique absolutely continuous invariant probability. A geometrical characteristic of transversality between self-intersections of images of is present in the dynamic of the maps in . In addition, we give a condition between E and C under which it is possible to perturb f to obtain a pair in .

Functional connectivity in the developing brain: A longitudinal study from 4 to 9 months of age

PubMed Central

Damaraju, E.; Caprihan, A.; Lowe, J.R.; Allen, E.A.; Calhoun, V.D.; Phillips, J.P.

2013-01-01

We characterize the development of intrinsic connectivity networks (ICNs) from 4 to 9 months of age with resting state magnetic resonance imaging performed on sleeping infants without sedative medication. Data is analyzed with independent component analysis (ICA). Using both low (30 components) and high (100 components) ICA model order decompositions, we find that the functional network connectivity (FNC) map is largely similar at both 4 and 9 months. However at 9 months the connectivity strength decreases within local networks and increases between more distant networks. The connectivity within the default-mode network, which contains both local and more distant nodes, also increases in strength with age. The low frequency power spectrum increases with age only in the posterior cingulate cortex and posterior default mode network. These findings are consistent with a general developmental pattern of increasing longer distance functional connectivity over the first year of life and raise questions regarding the developmental importance of the posterior cingulate at this age. PMID:23994454

Functional connectivity in the developing brain: a longitudinal study from 4 to 9months of age.

PubMed

Damaraju, E; Caprihan, A; Lowe, J R; Allen, E A; Calhoun, V D; Phillips, J P

2014-01-01

We characterize the development of intrinsic connectivity networks (ICNs) from 4 to 9months of age with resting state magnetic resonance imaging performed on sleeping infants without sedative medication. Data is analyzed with independent component analysis (ICA). Using both low (30 components) and high (100 components) ICA model order decompositions, we find that the functional network connectivity (FNC) map is largely similar at both 4 and 9months. However at 9months the connectivity strength decreases within local networks and increases between more distant networks. The connectivity within the default-mode network, which contains both local and more distant nodes, also increases in strength with age. The low frequency power spectrum increases with age only in the posterior cingulate cortex and posterior default mode network. These findings are consistent with a general developmental pattern of increasing longer distance functional connectivity over the first year of life and raise questions regarding the developmental importance of the posterior cingulate at this age. © 2013.

Mapping fire probability and severity in a Mediterranean area using different weather and fuel moisture scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arca, B.; Salis, M.; Bacciu, V.; Duce, P.; Pellizzaro, G.; Ventura, A.; Spano, D.

2009-04-01

Although in many countries lightning is the main cause of ignition, in the Mediterranean Basin the forest fires are predominantly ignited by arson, or by human negligence. The fire season peaks coincide with extreme weather conditions (mainly strong winds, hot temperatures, low atmospheric water vapour content) and high tourist presence. Many works reported that in the Mediterranean Basin the projected impacts of climate change will cause greater weather variability and extreme weather conditions, with drier and hotter summers and heat waves. At long-term scale, climate changes could affect the fuel load and the dead/live fuel ratio, and therefore could change the vegetation flammability. At short-time scale, the increase of extreme weather events could directly affect fuel water status, and it could increase large fire occurrence. In this context, detecting the areas characterized by both high probability of large fire occurrence and high fire severity could represent an important component of the fire management planning. In this work we compared several fire probability and severity maps (fire occurrence, rate of spread, fireline intensity, flame length) obtained for a study area located in North Sardinia, Italy, using FlamMap simulator (USDA Forest Service, Missoula). FlamMap computes the potential fire behaviour characteristics over a defined landscape for given weather, wind and fuel moisture data. Different weather and fuel moisture scenarios were tested to predict the potential impact of climate changes on fire parameters. The study area, characterized by a mosaic of urban areas, protected areas, and other areas subject to anthropogenic disturbances, is mainly composed by fire-prone Mediterranean maquis. The input themes needed to run FlamMap were input as grid of 10 meters; the wind data, obtained using a computational fluid-dynamic model, were inserted as gridded file, with a resolution of 50 m. The analysis revealed high fire probability and severity in most of the areas, and therefore a high potential danger. The FlamMap outputs and the derived fire probability maps can be used in decision support systems for fire spread and behaviour and for fire danger assessment with actual and future fire regimes.

[Isolated severe neurologic disorders in post-partum: posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome].

PubMed

Wernet, A; Benayoun, L; Yver, C; Bruno, O; Mantz, J

2007-01-01

Just after Caesarean section for twin pregnancy and feto-pelvic dysproportion, a woman presented severe headaches and arterial hypertension, then blurred vision, then generalised seizures. There were no oedematous syndrome, proteinuria was negative, ASAT were 1.5 N and platelet count was 120,000/mm(3). Cerebral CT-scan was normal. Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES) was diagnosed on MRI. A second MRI performed at day 9 showed complete regression of cerebral lesions, while patient was taking anti-hypertensive and antiepileptic drugs. PRES has to be evoked in post-partum central neurological symptoms, even in absence of classical sign of pre-eclampsia, like proteinuria. PRES and eclampsia share probably common physiopathological pathways. There management and prognosis seems identical.

Measurement of an Elasticity Map in the Human Cornea

PubMed Central

Mikula, Eric R.; Jester, James V.; Juhasz, Tibor

2016-01-01

Purpose The biomechanical properties of the cornea have an important role in determining the shape of the cornea and visual acuity. Since the cornea is a nonhomogeneous tissue, it is thought that the elastic properties vary throughout the cornea. We aim to measure a map of corneal elasticity across the cornea. Methods An acoustic radiation force elasticity microscope (ARFEM) was used to create a map of corneal elasticity in the human cornea. This ARFEM uses a low frequency, high intensity acoustic force to displace a femtosecond laser-generated microbubble, while using a high frequency, low intensity ultrasound to monitor the position of the microbubble within the cornea. From the displacement of the bubble and the magnitude of the acoustic radiation force, the local value of corneal elasticity is calculated in the direction of the displacement. Measurements were conducted at 6 locations, ranging from the central to peripheral cornea at anterior and posterior depths. Results The mean anterior elastic moduli were 4.2 ± 1.2, 3.4 ± 0.7, and 1.9 ± 0.7 kPa in the central, mid, and peripheral regions, respectively, while the posterior elastic moduli were 2.3 ± 0.7, 1.6 ± 0.3, and 2.9 ± 1.2 kPa in the same radial locations. Conclusions We found that there is a unique distribution of elasticity axially and radially throughout the cornea. PMID:27327584

Effective connectivity between superior temporal gyrus and Heschl's gyrus during white noise listening: linear versus non-linear models.

PubMed

Hamid, Ka; Yusoff, An; Rahman, Mza; Mohamad, M; Hamid, Aia

2012-04-01

This fMRI study is about modelling the effective connectivity between Heschl's gyrus (HG) and the superior temporal gyrus (STG) in human primary auditory cortices. MATERIALS #ENTITYSTARTX00026; Ten healthy male participants were required to listen to white noise stimuli during functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) scans. Statistical parametric mapping (SPM) was used to generate individual and group brain activation maps. For input region determination, two intrinsic connectivity models comprising bilateral HG and STG were constructed using dynamic causal modelling (DCM). The models were estimated and inferred using DCM while Bayesian Model Selection (BMS) for group studies was used for model comparison and selection. Based on the winning model, six linear and six non-linear causal models were derived and were again estimated, inferred, and compared to obtain a model that best represents the effective connectivity between HG and the STG, balancing accuracy and complexity. Group results indicated significant asymmetrical activation (p(uncorr) < 0.001) in bilateral HG and STG. Model comparison results showed strong evidence of STG as the input centre. The winning model is preferred by 6 out of 10 participants. The results were supported by BMS results for group studies with the expected posterior probability, r = 0.7830 and exceedance probability, ϕ = 0.9823. One-sample t-tests performed on connection values obtained from the winning model indicated that the valid connections for the winning model are the unidirectional parallel connections from STG to bilateral HG (p < 0.05). Subsequent model comparison between linear and non-linear models using BMS prefers non-linear connection (r = 0.9160, ϕ = 1.000) from which the connectivity between STG and the ipsi- and contralateral HG is gated by the activity in STG itself. We are able to demonstrate that the effective connectivity between HG and STG while listening to white noise for the respective participants can be explained by a non-linear dynamic causal model with the activity in STG influencing the STG-HG connectivity non-linearly.

Using widely spaced observations of land use, forest attributes, and intrusions to map resource potential and human impact probability

Treesearch

Victor A. Rudis

2000-01-01

Scant information exists about the spatial extent of human impact on forest resource supplies, i.e., depreciative and nonforest uses. I used observations of ground-sampled land use and intrusions on forest land to map the probability of resource use and human impact for broad areas. Data came from a seven-state survey region (Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi,...

Using widely spaced observations of land use, forest attributes, and intrusions to map resource potential and human impact probability

Treesearch

Victor A. Rudis

2000-01-01

Scant information exists about the spatial extent of human impact on forest resource supplies, i.e., depreciative and nonforest uses. I used observations of ground-sampled land use and intrusions on forest land to map the probability of resource use and human impact for broad areas. Data came from a seven State survey region (Alabama, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi,...

Using spatiotemporal models and distance sampling to map the space use and abundance of newly metamorphosed Western Toads (Anaxyrus boreas)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Chelgren, Nathan D.; Samora, Barbara; Adams, Michael J.; McCreary, Brome

2011-01-01

High variability in abundance, cryptic coloration, and small body size of newly metamorphosed anurans have limited demographic studies of this life-history stage. We used line-transect distance sampling and Bayesian methods to estimate the abundance and spatial distribution of newly metamorphosed Western Toads (Anaxyrus boreas) in terrestrial habitat surrounding a montane lake in central Washington, USA. We completed 154 line-transect surveys from the commencement of metamorphosis (15 September 2009) to the date of first snow accumulation in fall (1 October 2009), and located 543 newly metamorphosed toads. After accounting for variable detection probability associated with the extent of barren habitats, estimates of total surface abundance ranged from a posterior median of 3,880 (95% credible intervals from 2,235 to 12,600) in the first week of sampling to 12,150 (5,543 to 51,670) during the second week of sampling. Numbers of newly metamorphosed toads dropped quickly with increasing distance from the lakeshore in a pattern that differed over the three weeks of the study and contradicted our original hypotheses. Though we hypothesized that the spatial distribution of toads would initially be concentrated near the lake shore and then spread outward from the lake over time, we observed the opposite. Ninety-five percent of individuals occurred within 20, 16, and 15 m of shore during weeks one, two, and three respectively, probably reflecting continued emergence of newly metamorphosed toads from the lake and mortality or burrow use of dispersed individuals. Numbers of toads were highest near the inlet stream of the lake. Distance sampling may provide a useful method for estimating the surface abundance of newly metamorphosed toads and relating their space use to landscape variables despite uncertain and variable probability of detection. We discuss means of improving the precision of estimates of total abundance.

Evidence that multiple genetic variants of MC4R play a functional role in the regulation of energy expenditure and appetite in Hispanic children1234

PubMed Central

Cole, Shelley A; Voruganti, V Saroja; Cai, Guowen; Haack, Karin; Kent, Jack W; Blangero, John; Comuzzie, Anthony G; McPherson, John D; Gibbs, Richard A

2010-01-01

Background: Melanocortin-4-receptor (MC4R) haploinsufficiency is the most common form of monogenic obesity; however, the frequency of MC4R variants and their functional effects in general populations remain uncertain. Objective: The aim was to identify and characterize the effects of MC4R variants in Hispanic children. Design: MC4R was resequenced in 376 parents, and the identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped in 613 parents and 1016 children from the Viva la Familia cohort. Measured genotype analysis (MGA) tested associations between SNPs and phenotypes. Bayesian quantitative trait nucleotide (BQTN) analysis was used to infer the most likely functional polymorphisms influencing obesity-related traits. Results: Seven rare SNPs in coding and 18 SNPs in flanking regions of MC4R were identified. MGA showed suggestive associations between MC4R variants and body size, adiposity, glucose, insulin, leptin, ghrelin, energy expenditure, physical activity, and food intake. BQTN analysis identified SNP 1704 in a predicted micro-RNA target sequence in the downstream flanking region of MC4R as a strong, probable functional variant influencing total, sedentary, and moderate activities with posterior probabilities of 1.0. SNP 2132 was identified as a variant with a high probability (1.0) of exerting a functional effect on total energy expenditure and sleeping metabolic rate. SNP rs34114122 was selected as having likely functional effects on the appetite hormone ghrelin, with a posterior probability of 0.81. Conclusion: This comprehensive investigation provides strong evidence that MC4R genetic variants are likely to play a functional role in the regulation of weight, not only through energy intake but through energy expenditure. PMID:19889825

Retinoic acid and Wnt/beta-catenin have complementary roles in anterior/posterior patterning embryos of the basal chordate amphioxus.

PubMed

Onai, Takayuki; Lin, Hsiu-Chin; Schubert, Michael; Koop, Demian; Osborne, Peter W; Alvarez, Susana; Alvarez, Rosana; Holland, Nicholas D; Holland, Linda Z

2009-08-15

A role for Wnt/beta-catenin signaling in axial patterning has been demonstrated in animals as basal as cnidarians, while roles in axial patterning for retinoic acid (RA) probably evolved in the deuterostomes and may be chordate-specific. In vertebrates, these two pathways interact both directly and indirectly. To investigate the evolutionary origins of interactions between these two pathways, we manipulated Wnt/beta-catenin and RA signaling in the basal chordate amphioxus during the gastrula stage, which is the RA-sensitive period for anterior/posterior (A/P) patterning. The results show that Wnt/beta-catenin and RA signaling have distinctly different roles in patterning the A/P axis of the amphioxus gastrula. Wnt/beta-catenin specifies the identity of the ends of the embryo (high Wnt = posterior; low Wnt = anterior) but not intervening positions. Thus, upregulation of Wnt/beta-catenin signaling induces ectopic expression of posterior markers at the anterior tip of the embryo. In contrast, RA specifies position along the A/P axis, but not the identity of the ends of the embryo-increased RA signaling strongly affects the domains of Hox expression along the A/P axis but has little or no effect on the expression of either anterior or posterior markers. Although the two pathways may both influence such things as specification of neuronal identity, interactions between them in A/P patterning appear to be minimal.

Large-scale brain networks are distinctly affected in right and left mesial temporal lobe epilepsy.

PubMed

de Campos, Brunno Machado; Coan, Ana Carolina; Lin Yasuda, Clarissa; Casseb, Raphael Fernandes; Cendes, Fernando

2016-09-01

Mesial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE) with hippocampus sclerosis (HS) is associated with functional and structural alterations extending beyond the temporal regions and abnormal pattern of brain resting state networks (RSNs) connectivity. We hypothesized that the interaction of large-scale RSNs is differently affected in patients with right- and left-MTLE with HS compared to controls. We aimed to determine and characterize these alterations through the analysis of 12 RSNs, functionally parceled in 70 regions of interest (ROIs), from resting-state functional-MRIs of 99 subjects (52 controls, 26 right- and 21 left-MTLE patients with HS). Image preprocessing and statistical analysis were performed using UF(2) C-toolbox, which provided ROI-wise results for intranetwork and internetwork connectivity. Intranetwork abnormalities were observed in the dorsal default mode network (DMN) in both groups of patients and in the posterior salience network in right-MTLE. Both groups showed abnormal correlation between the dorsal-DMN and the posterior salience, as well as between the dorsal-DMN and the executive-control network. Patients with left-MTLE also showed reduced correlation between the dorsal-DMN and visuospatial network and increased correlation between bilateral thalamus and the posterior salience network. The ipsilateral hippocampus stood out as a central area of abnormalities. Alterations on left-MTLE expressed a low cluster coefficient, whereas the altered connections on right-MTLE showed low cluster coefficient in the DMN but high in the posterior salience regions. Both right- and left-MTLE patients with HS have widespread abnormal interactions of large-scale brain networks; however, all parameters evaluated indicate that left-MTLE has a more intricate bihemispheric dysfunction compared to right-MTLE. Hum Brain Mapp 37:3137-3152, 2016. © 2016 The Authors Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 The Authors Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Probability of Unmixed Young Groundwater (defined using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities) in the Eagle River Watershed Valley-Fill Aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rupert, Michael G.; Plummer, Niel

2009-01-01

This raster data set delineates the predicted probability of unmixed young groundwater (defined using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities) in groundwater in the Eagle River watershed valley-fill aquifer, Eagle County, North-Central Colorado, 2006-2007. This data set was developed by a cooperative project between the U.S. Geological Survey, Eagle County, the Eagle River Water and Sanitation District, the Town of Eagle, the Town of Gypsum, and the Upper Eagle Regional Water Authority. This project was designed to evaluate potential land-development effects on groundwater and surface-water resources so that informed land-use and water management decisions can be made. This groundwater probability map and its associated probability maps were developed as follows: (1) A point data set of wells with groundwater quality and groundwater age data was overlaid with thematic layers of anthropogenic (related to human activities) and hydrogeologic data by using a geographic information system to assign each well values for depth to groundwater, distance to major streams and canals, distance to gypsum beds, precipitation, soils, and well depth. These data then were downloaded to a statistical software package for analysis by logistic regression. (2) Statistical models predicting the probability of elevated nitrate concentrations, the probability of unmixed young water (using chlorofluorocarbon-11 concentrations and tritium activities), and the probability of elevated volatile organic compound concentrations were developed using logistic regression techniques. (3) The statistical models were entered into a GIS and the probability map was constructed.

Neural dynamics of reward probability coding: a Magnetoencephalographic study in humans

PubMed Central

Thomas, Julie; Vanni-Mercier, Giovanna; Dreher, Jean-Claude

2013-01-01

Prediction of future rewards and discrepancy between actual and expected outcomes (prediction error) are crucial signals for adaptive behavior. In humans, a number of fMRI studies demonstrated that reward probability modulates these two signals in a large brain network. Yet, the spatio-temporal dynamics underlying the neural coding of reward probability remains unknown. Here, using magnetoencephalography, we investigated the neural dynamics of prediction and reward prediction error computations while subjects learned to associate cues of slot machines with monetary rewards with different probabilities. We showed that event-related magnetic fields (ERFs) arising from the visual cortex coded the expected reward value 155 ms after the cue, demonstrating that reward value signals emerge early in the visual stream. Moreover, a prediction error was reflected in ERF peaking 300 ms after the rewarded outcome and showing decreasing amplitude with higher reward probability. This prediction error signal was generated in a network including the anterior and posterior cingulate cortex. These findings pinpoint the spatio-temporal characteristics underlying reward probability coding. Together, our results provide insights into the neural dynamics underlying the ability to learn probabilistic stimuli-reward contingencies. PMID:24302894

Emergency Assessment of Debris-Flow Hazards from Basins Burned by the Piru, Simi, and Verdale Fires of 2003, Southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cannon, Susan H.; Gartner, Joseph E.; Rupert, Michael G.; Michael, John A.

2003-01-01

These maps present preliminary assessments of the probability of debris-flow activity and estimates of peak discharges that can potentially be generated by debris-flows issuing from basins burned by the Piru, Simi and Verdale Fires of October 2003 in southern California in response to the 25-year, 10-year, and 2-year 1-hour rain storms. The probability maps are based on the application of a logistic multiple regression model that describes the percent chance of debris-flow production from an individual basin as a function of burned extent, soil properties, basin gradients and storm rainfall. The peak discharge maps are based on application of a multiple-regression model that can be used to estimate debris-flow peak discharge at a basin outlet as a function of basin gradient, burn extent, and storm rainfall. Probabilities of debris-flow occurrence for the Piru Fire range between 2 and 94% and estimates of debris flow peak discharges range between 1,200 and 6,640 ft3/s (34 to 188 m3/s). Basins burned by the Simi Fire show probabilities for debris-flow occurrence between 1 and 98%, and peak discharge estimates between 1,130 and 6,180 ft3/s (32 and 175 m3/s). The probabilities for debris-flow activity calculated for the Verdale Fire range from negligible values to 13%. Peak discharges were not estimated for this fire because of these low probabilities. These maps are intended to identify those basins that are most prone to the largest debris-flow events and provide information for the preliminary design of mitigation measures and for the planning of evacuation timing and routes.

Bayesian inference based on stationary Fokker-Planck sampling.

PubMed

Berrones, Arturo

2010-06-01

A novel formalism for bayesian learning in the context of complex inference models is proposed. The method is based on the use of the stationary Fokker-Planck (SFP) approach to sample from the posterior density. Stationary Fokker-Planck sampling generalizes the Gibbs sampler algorithm for arbitrary and unknown conditional densities. By the SFP procedure, approximate analytical expressions for the conditionals and marginals of the posterior can be constructed. At each stage of SFP, the approximate conditionals are used to define a Gibbs sampling process, which is convergent to the full joint posterior. By the analytical marginals efficient learning methods in the context of artificial neural networks are outlined. Offline and incremental bayesian inference and maximum likelihood estimation from the posterior are performed in classification and regression examples. A comparison of SFP with other Monte Carlo strategies in the general problem of sampling from arbitrary densities is also presented. It is shown that SFP is able to jump large low-probability regions without the need of a careful tuning of any step-size parameter. In fact, the SFP method requires only a small set of meaningful parameters that can be selected following clear, problem-independent guidelines. The computation cost of SFP, measured in terms of loss function evaluations, grows linearly with the given model's dimension.

Forecasts of non-Gaussian parameter spaces using Box-Cox transformations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joachimi, B.; Taylor, A. N.

2011-09-01

Forecasts of statistical constraints on model parameters using the Fisher matrix abound in many fields of astrophysics. The Fisher matrix formalism involves the assumption of Gaussianity in parameter space and hence fails to predict complex features of posterior probability distributions. Combining the standard Fisher matrix with Box-Cox transformations, we propose a novel method that accurately predicts arbitrary posterior shapes. The Box-Cox transformations are applied to parameter space to render it approximately multivariate Gaussian, performing the Fisher matrix calculation on the transformed parameters. We demonstrate that, after the Box-Cox parameters have been determined from an initial likelihood evaluation, the method correctly predicts changes in the posterior when varying various parameters of the experimental setup and the data analysis, with marginally higher computational cost than a standard Fisher matrix calculation. We apply the Box-Cox-Fisher formalism to forecast cosmological parameter constraints by future weak gravitational lensing surveys. The characteristic non-linear degeneracy between matter density parameter and normalization of matter density fluctuations is reproduced for several cases, and the capabilities of breaking this degeneracy by weak-lensing three-point statistics is investigated. Possible applications of Box-Cox transformations of posterior distributions are discussed, including the prospects for performing statistical data analysis steps in the transformed Gaussianized parameter space.

Estimating population size for Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus L.) with spatial capture-recapture models based on genotypes from one field sample

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mollet, Pierre; Kery, Marc; Gardner, Beth; Pasinelli, Gilberto; Royle, Andy

2015-01-01

We conducted a survey of an endangered and cryptic forest grouse, the capercaillie Tetrao urogallus, based on droppings collected on two sampling occasions in eight forest fragments in central Switzerland in early spring 2009. We used genetic analyses to sex and individually identify birds. We estimated sex-dependent detection probabilities and population size using a modern spatial capture-recapture (SCR) model for the data from pooled surveys. A total of 127 capercaillie genotypes were identified (77 males, 46 females, and 4 of unknown sex). The SCR model yielded atotal population size estimate (posterior mean) of 137.3 capercaillies (posterior sd 4.2, 95% CRI 130–147). The observed sex ratio was skewed towards males (0.63). The posterior mean of the sex ratio under the SCR model was 0.58 (posterior sd 0.02, 95% CRI 0.54–0.61), suggesting a male-biased sex ratio in our study area. A subsampling simulation study indicated that a reduced sampling effort representing 75% of the actual detections would still yield practically acceptable estimates of total size and sex ratio in our population. Hence, field work and financial effort could be reduced without compromising accuracy when the SCR model is used to estimate key population parameters of cryptic species.

Dimension-independent likelihood-informed MCMC

DOE PAGES

Cui, Tiangang; Law, Kody J. H.; Marzouk, Youssef M.

2015-10-08

Many Bayesian inference problems require exploring the posterior distribution of highdimensional parameters that represent the discretization of an underlying function. Our work introduces a family of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) samplers that can adapt to the particular structure of a posterior distribution over functions. There are two distinct lines of research that intersect in the methods we develop here. First, we introduce a general class of operator-weighted proposal distributions that are well defined on function space, such that the performance of the resulting MCMC samplers is independent of the discretization of the function. Second, by exploiting local Hessian informationmore » and any associated lowdimensional structure in the change from prior to posterior distributions, we develop an inhomogeneous discretization scheme for the Langevin stochastic differential equation that yields operator-weighted proposals adapted to the non-Gaussian structure of the posterior. The resulting dimension-independent and likelihood-informed (DILI) MCMC samplers may be useful for a large class of high-dimensional problems where the target probability measure has a density with respect to a Gaussian reference measure. Finally, we use two nonlinear inverse problems in order to demonstrate the efficiency of these DILI samplers: an elliptic PDE coefficient inverse problem and path reconstruction in a conditioned diffusion.« less

Bayesian Travel Time Inversion adopting Gaussian Process Regression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauerberger, S.; Holschneider, M.

2017-12-01

A major application in seismology is the determination of seismic velocity models. Travel time measurements are putting an integral constraint on the velocity between source and receiver. We provide insight into travel time inversion from a correlation-based Bayesian point of view. Therefore, the concept of Gaussian process regression is adopted to estimate a velocity model. The non-linear travel time integral is approximated by a 1st order Taylor expansion. A heuristic covariance describes correlations amongst observations and a priori model. That approach enables us to assess a proxy of the Bayesian posterior distribution at ordinary computational costs. No multi dimensional numeric integration nor excessive sampling is necessary. Instead of stacking the data, we suggest to progressively build the posterior distribution. Incorporating only a single evidence at a time accounts for the deficit of linearization. As a result, the most probable model is given by the posterior mean whereas uncertainties are described by the posterior covariance.As a proof of concept, a synthetic purely 1d model is addressed. Therefore a single source accompanied by multiple receivers is considered on top of a model comprising a discontinuity. We consider travel times of both phases - direct and reflected wave - corrupted by noise. Left and right of the interface are assumed independent where the squared exponential kernel serves as covariance.

A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities.

PubMed

Bobb, Jennifer F; Dominici, Francesca; Peng, Roger D

2011-12-01

Estimating the risks heat waves pose to human health is a critical part of assessing the future impact of climate change. In this article, we propose a flexible class of time series models to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves and conduct Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to account for the multiplicity of potential models. Applying these methods to data from 105 U.S. cities for the period 1987-2005, we identify those cities having a high posterior probability of increased mortality risk during heat waves, examine the heterogeneity of the posterior distributions of mortality risk across cities, assess sensitivity of the results to the selection of prior distributions, and compare our BMA results to a model selection approach. Our results show that no single model best predicts risk across the majority of cities, and that for some cities heat-wave risk estimation is sensitive to model choice. Although model averaging leads to posterior distributions with increased variance as compared to statistical inference conditional on a model obtained through model selection, we find that the posterior mean of heat wave mortality risk is robust to accounting for model uncertainty over a broad class of models. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Characteristics of Chinese-English bilingual dyslexia in right occipito-temporal lesion.

PubMed

Ting, Simon Kang Seng; Chia, Pei Shi; Chan, Yiong Huak; Kwek, Kevin Jun Hong; Tan, Wilnard; Hameed, Shahul; Tan, Eng-King

2017-11-01

Current literature suggests that right hemisphere lesions produce predominant spatial-related dyslexic error in English speakers. However, little is known regarding such lesions in Chinese speakers. In this paper, we describe the dyslexic characteristics of a Chinese-English bilingual patient with a right posterior cortical lesion. He was found to have profound spatial-related errors during his English word reading, in both real and non-words. During Chinese word reading, there was significantly less error compared to English, probably due to the ideographic nature of the Chinese language. He was also found to commit phonological-like visual errors in English, characterized by error responses that were visually similar to the actual word. There was no significant difference in visual errors during English word reading compared with Chinese. In general, our patient's performance in both languages appears to be consistent with the current literature on right posterior hemisphere lesions. Additionally, his performance also likely suggests that the right posterior cortical region participates in the visual analysis of orthographical word representation, both in ideographical and alphabetic languages, at least from a bilingual perspective. Future studies should further examine the role of the right posterior region in initial visual analysis of both languages. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three- and four-dimensional mapping of speech and language in patients with epilepsy.

PubMed

Nakai, Yasuo; Jeong, Jeong-Won; Brown, Erik C; Rothermel, Robert; Kojima, Katsuaki; Kambara, Toshimune; Shah, Aashit; Mittal, Sandeep; Sood, Sandeep; Asano, Eishi

2017-05-01

We have provided 3-D and 4D mapping of speech and language function based upon the results of direct cortical stimulation and event-related modulation of electrocorticography signals. Patients estimated to have right-hemispheric language dominance were excluded. Thus, 100 patients who underwent two-stage epilepsy surgery with chronic electrocorticography recording were studied. An older group consisted of 84 patients at least 10 years of age (7367 artefact-free non-epileptic electrodes), whereas a younger group included 16 children younger than age 10 (1438 electrodes). The probability of symptoms transiently induced by electrical stimulation was delineated on a 3D average surface image. The electrocorticography amplitude changes of high-gamma (70-110 Hz) and beta (15-30 Hz) activities during an auditory-naming task were animated on the average surface image in a 4D manner. Thereby, high-gamma augmentation and beta attenuation were treated as summary measures of cortical activation. Stimulation data indicated the causal relationship between (i) superior-temporal gyrus of either hemisphere and auditory hallucination; (ii) left superior-/middle-temporal gyri and receptive aphasia; (iii) widespread temporal/frontal lobe regions of the left hemisphere and expressive aphasia; and (iv) bilateral precentral/left posterior superior-frontal regions and speech arrest. On electrocorticography analysis, high-gamma augmentation involved the bilateral superior-temporal and precentral gyri immediately following question onset; at the same time, high-gamma activity was attenuated in the left orbitofrontal gyrus. High-gamma activity was augmented in the left temporal/frontal lobe regions, as well as left inferior-parietal and cingulate regions, maximally around question offset, with high-gamma augmentation in the left pars orbitalis inferior-frontal, middle-frontal, and inferior-parietal regions preceded by high-gamma attenuation in the contralateral homotopic regions. Immediately before verbal response, high-gamma augmentation involved the posterior superior-frontal and pre/postcentral regions, bilaterally. Beta-attenuation was spatially and temporally correlated with high-gamma augmentation in general but with exceptions. The younger and older groups shared similar spatial-temporal profiles of high-gamma and beta modulation; except, the younger group failed to show left-dominant activation in the rostral middle-frontal and pars orbitalis inferior-frontal regions around stimulus offset. The human brain may rapidly and alternately activate and deactivate cortical areas advantageous or obtrusive to function directed toward speech and language at a given moment. Increased left-dominant activation in the anterior frontal structures in the older age group may reflect developmental consolidation of the language system. The results of our functional mapping may be useful in predicting, across not only space but also time and patient age, sites specific to language function for presurgical evaluation of focal epilepsy. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain.

Three- and four-dimensional mapping of speech and language in patients with epilepsy

PubMed Central

Nakai, Yasuo; Jeong, Jeong-won; Brown, Erik C.; Rothermel, Robert; Kojima, Katsuaki; Kambara, Toshimune; Shah, Aashit; Mittal, Sandeep; Sood, Sandeep

2017-01-01

We have provided 3-D and 4D mapping of speech and language function based upon the results of direct cortical stimulation and event-related modulation of electrocorticography signals. Patients estimated to have right-hemispheric language dominance were excluded. Thus, 100 patients who underwent two-stage epilepsy surgery with chronic electrocorticography recording were studied. An older group consisted of 84 patients at least 10 years of age (7367 artefact-free non-epileptic electrodes), whereas a younger group included 16 children younger than age 10 (1438 electrodes). The probability of symptoms transiently induced by electrical stimulation was delineated on a 3D average surface image. The electrocorticography amplitude changes of high-gamma (70–110 Hz) and beta (15–30 Hz) activities during an auditory-naming task were animated on the average surface image in a 4D manner. Thereby, high-gamma augmentation and beta attenuation were treated as summary measures of cortical activation. Stimulation data indicated the causal relationship between (i) superior-temporal gyrus of either hemisphere and auditory hallucination; (ii) left superior-/middle-temporal gyri and receptive aphasia; (iii) widespread temporal/frontal lobe regions of the left hemisphere and expressive aphasia; and (iv) bilateral precentral/left posterior superior-frontal regions and speech arrest. On electrocorticography analysis, high-gamma augmentation involved the bilateral superior-temporal and precentral gyri immediately following question onset; at the same time, high-gamma activity was attenuated in the left orbitofrontal gyrus. High-gamma activity was augmented in the left temporal/frontal lobe regions, as well as left inferior-parietal and cingulate regions, maximally around question offset, with high-gamma augmentation in the left pars orbitalis inferior-frontal, middle-frontal, and inferior-parietal regions preceded by high-gamma attenuation in the contralateral homotopic regions. Immediately before verbal response, high-gamma augmentation involved the posterior superior-frontal and pre/postcentral regions, bilaterally. Beta-attenuation was spatially and temporally correlated with high-gamma augmentation in general but with exceptions. The younger and older groups shared similar spatial-temporal profiles of high-gamma and beta modulation; except, the younger group failed to show left-dominant activation in the rostral middle-frontal and pars orbitalis inferior-frontal regions around stimulus offset. The human brain may rapidly and alternately activate and deactivate cortical areas advantageous or obtrusive to function directed toward speech and language at a given moment. Increased left-dominant activation in the anterior frontal structures in the older age group may reflect developmental consolidation of the language system. The results of our functional mapping may be useful in predicting, across not only space but also time and patient age, sites specific to language function for presurgical evaluation of focal epilepsy. PMID:28334963

A bayesian analysis for identifying DNA copy number variations using a compound poisson process.

PubMed

Chen, Jie; Yiğiter, Ayten; Wang, Yu-Ping; Deng, Hong-Wen

2010-01-01

To study chromosomal aberrations that may lead to cancer formation or genetic diseases, the array-based Comparative Genomic Hybridization (aCGH) technique is often used for detecting DNA copy number variants (CNVs). Various methods have been developed for gaining CNVs information based on aCGH data. However, most of these methods make use of the log-intensity ratios in aCGH data without taking advantage of other information such as the DNA probe (e.g., biomarker) positions/distances contained in the data. Motivated by the specific features of aCGH data, we developed a novel method that takes into account the estimation of a change point or locus of the CNV in aCGH data with its associated biomarker position on the chromosome using a compound Poisson process. We used a Bayesian approach to derive the posterior probability for the estimation of the CNV locus. To detect loci of multiple CNVs in the data, a sliding window process combined with our derived Bayesian posterior probability was proposed. To evaluate the performance of the method in the estimation of the CNV locus, we first performed simulation studies. Finally, we applied our approach to real data from aCGH experiments, demonstrating its applicability.

Bayesian methods for outliers detection in GNSS time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qianqian, Zhang; Qingming, Gui

2013-07-01

This article is concerned with the problem of detecting outliers in GNSS time series based on Bayesian statistical theory. Firstly, a new model is proposed to simultaneously detect different types of outliers based on the conception of introducing different types of classification variables corresponding to the different types of outliers; the problem of outlier detection is converted into the computation of the corresponding posterior probabilities, and the algorithm for computing the posterior probabilities based on standard Gibbs sampler is designed. Secondly, we analyze the reasons of masking and swamping about detecting patches of additive outliers intensively; an unmasking Bayesian method for detecting additive outlier patches is proposed based on an adaptive Gibbs sampler. Thirdly, the correctness of the theories and methods proposed above is illustrated by simulated data and then by analyzing real GNSS observations, such as cycle slips detection in carrier phase data. Examples illustrate that the Bayesian methods for outliers detection in GNSS time series proposed by this paper are not only capable of detecting isolated outliers but also capable of detecting additive outlier patches. Furthermore, it can be successfully used to process cycle slips in phase data, which solves the problem of small cycle slips.

Probabilistic graphs as a conceptual and computational tool in hydrology and water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoups, Gerrit

2014-05-01

Originally developed in the fields of machine learning and artificial intelligence, probabilistic graphs constitute a general framework for modeling complex systems in the presence of uncertainty. The framework consists of three components: 1. Representation of the model as a graph (or network), with nodes depicting random variables in the model (e.g. parameters, states, etc), which are joined together by factors. Factors are local probabilistic or deterministic relations between subsets of variables, which, when multiplied together, yield the joint distribution over all variables. 2. Consistent use of probability theory for quantifying uncertainty, relying on basic rules of probability for assimilating data into the model and expressing unknown variables as a function of observations (via the posterior distribution). 3. Efficient, distributed approximation of the posterior distribution using general-purpose algorithms that exploit model structure encoded in the graph. These attributes make probabilistic graphs potentially useful as a conceptual and computational tool in hydrology and water management (and beyond). Conceptually, they can provide a common framework for existing and new probabilistic modeling approaches (e.g. by drawing inspiration from other fields of application), while computationally they can make probabilistic inference feasible in larger hydrological models. The presentation explores, via examples, some of these benefits.

Nonlinear detection for a high rate extended binary phase shift keying system.

PubMed

Chen, Xian-Qing; Wu, Le-Nan

2013-03-28

The algorithm and the results of a nonlinear detector using a machine learning technique called support vector machine (SVM) on an efficient modulation system with high data rate and low energy consumption is presented in this paper. Simulation results showed that the performance achieved by the SVM detector is comparable to that of a conventional threshold decision (TD) detector. The two detectors detect the received signals together with the special impacting filter (SIF) that can improve the energy utilization efficiency. However, unlike the TD detector, the SVM detector concentrates not only on reducing the BER of the detector, but also on providing accurate posterior probability estimates (PPEs), which can be used as soft-inputs of the LDPC decoder. The complexity of this detector is considered in this paper by using four features and simplifying the decision function. In addition, a bandwidth efficient transmission is analyzed with both SVM and TD detector. The SVM detector is more robust to sampling rate than TD detector. We find that the SVM is suitable for extended binary phase shift keying (EBPSK) signal detection and can provide accurate posterior probability for LDPC decoding.

Nonlinear Detection for a High Rate Extended Binary Phase Shift Keying System

PubMed Central

Chen, Xian-Qing; Wu, Le-Nan

2013-01-01

The algorithm and the results of a nonlinear detector using a machine learning technique called support vector machine (SVM) on an efficient modulation system with high data rate and low energy consumption is presented in this paper. Simulation results showed that the performance achieved by the SVM detector is comparable to that of a conventional threshold decision (TD) detector. The two detectors detect the received signals together with the special impacting filter (SIF) that can improve the energy utilization efficiency. However, unlike the TD detector, the SVM detector concentrates not only on reducing the BER of the detector, but also on providing accurate posterior probability estimates (PPEs), which can be used as soft-inputs of the LDPC decoder. The complexity of this detector is considered in this paper by using four features and simplifying the decision function. In addition, a bandwidth efficient transmission is analyzed with both SVM and TD detector. The SVM detector is more robust to sampling rate than TD detector. We find that the SVM is suitable for extended binary phase shift keying (EBPSK) signal detection and can provide accurate posterior probability for LDPC decoding. PMID:23539034

Relevance Vector Machine Learning for Neonate Pain Intensity Assessment Using Digital Imaging

PubMed Central

Gholami, Behnood; Tannenbaum, Allen R.

2011-01-01

Pain assessment in patients who are unable to verbally communicate is a challenging problem. The fundamental limitations in pain assessment in neonates stem from subjective assessment criteria, rather than quantifiable and measurable data. This often results in poor quality and inconsistent treatment of patient pain management. Recent advancements in pattern recognition techniques using relevance vector machine (RVM) learning techniques can assist medical staff in assessing pain by constantly monitoring the patient and providing the clinician with quantifiable data for pain management. The RVM classification technique is a Bayesian extension of the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm, which achieves comparable performance to SVM while providing posterior probabilities for class memberships and a sparser model. If classes represent “pure” facial expressions (i.e., extreme expressions that an observer can identify with a high degree of confidence), then the posterior probability of the membership of some intermediate facial expression to a class can provide an estimate of the intensity of such an expression. In this paper, we use the RVM classification technique to distinguish pain from nonpain in neonates as well as assess their pain intensity levels. We also correlate our results with the pain intensity assessed by expert and nonexpert human examiners. PMID:20172803

On the Empirical Importance of the Conditional Skewness Assumption in Modelling the Relationship between Risk and Return

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pipień, M.

2008-09-01

We present the results of an application of Bayesian inference in testing the relation between risk and return on the financial instruments. On the basis of the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model, proposed by Merton we built a general sampling distribution suitable in analysing this relationship. The most important feature of our assumptions is that the skewness of the conditional distribution of returns is used as an alternative source of relation between risk and return. This general specification relates to Skewed Generalized Autoregressive Conditionally Heteroscedastic-in-Mean model. In order to make conditional distribution of financial returns skewed we considered the unified approach based on the inverse probability integral transformation. In particular, we applied hidden truncation mechanism, inverse scale factors, order statistics concept, Beta and Bernstein distribution transformations and also a constructive method. Based on the daily excess returns on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Index we checked the empirical importance of the conditional skewness assumption on the relation between risk and return on the Warsaw Stock Market. We present posterior probabilities of all competing specifications as well as the posterior analysis of the positive sign of the tested relationship.

The hippocampal longitudinal axis-relevance for underlying tau and TDP-43 pathology.

PubMed

Lladó, Albert; Tort-Merino, Adrià; Sánchez-Valle, Raquel; Falgàs, Neus; Balasa, Mircea; Bosch, Beatriz; Castellví, Magda; Olives, Jaume; Antonell, Anna; Hornberger, Michael

2018-06-01

Recent studies suggest that hippocampus has different cortical connectivity and functionality along its longitudinal axis. We sought to elucidate the possible different pattern of atrophy in longitudinal axis of hippocampus between Amyloid/Tau pathology and TDP-43-pathies. Seventy-three presenile subjects were included: Amyloid/Tau group (33 Alzheimer's disease with confirmed cerebrospinal fluid [CSF] biomarkers), probable TDP-43 group (7 semantic variant progressive primary aphasia, 5 GRN and 2 C9orf72 mutation carriers) and 26 healthy controls. We conducted a region-of-interest voxel-based morphometry analysis on the hippocampal longitudinal axis, by contrasting the groups, covarying with CSF biomarkers (Aβ 42 , total tau, p-tau) and covarying with episodic memory scores. Amyloid/Tau pathology affected mainly posterior hippocampus while anterior left hippocampus was more atrophied in probable TDP-43-pathies. We also observed a significant correlation of posterior hippocampal atrophy with Alzheimer's disease CSF biomarkers and visual memory scores. Taken together, these data suggest that there is a potential differentiation along the hippocampal longitudinal axis based on the underlying pathology, which could be used as a potential biomarker to identify the underlying pathology in different neurodegenerative diseases. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Abnormalities of fixation, saccade and pursuit in posterior cortical atrophy

PubMed Central

Kaski, Diego; Yong, Keir X. X.; Paterson, Ross W.; Slattery, Catherine F.; Ryan, Natalie S.; Schott, Jonathan M.; Crutch, Sebastian J.

2015-01-01

The clinico-neuroradiological syndrome posterior cortical atrophy is the cardinal ‘visual dementia’ and most common atypical Alzheimer’s disease phenotype, offering insights into mechanisms underlying clinical heterogeneity, pathological propagation and basic visual phenomena (e.g. visual crowding). Given the extensive attention paid to patients’ (higher order) perceptual function, it is surprising that there have been no systematic analyses of basic oculomotor function in this population. Here 20 patients with posterior cortical atrophy, 17 patients with typical Alzheimer’s disease and 22 healthy controls completed tests of fixation, saccade (including fixation/target gap and overlap conditions) and smooth pursuit eye movements using an infrared pupil-tracking system. Participants underwent detailed neuropsychological and neurological examinations, with a proportion also undertaking brain imaging and analysis of molecular pathology. In contrast to informal clinical evaluations of oculomotor dysfunction frequency (previous studies: 38%, current clinical examination: 33%), detailed eyetracking investigations revealed eye movement abnormalities in 80% of patients with posterior cortical atrophy (compared to 17% typical Alzheimer’s disease, 5% controls). The greatest differences between posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer’s disease were seen in saccadic performance. Patients with posterior cortical atrophy made significantly shorter saccades especially for distant targets. They also exhibited a significant exacerbation of the normal gap/overlap effect, consistent with ‘sticky fixation’. Time to reach saccadic targets was significantly associated with parietal and occipital cortical thickness measures. On fixation stability tasks, patients with typical Alzheimer’s disease showed more square wave jerks whose frequency was associated with lower cerebellar grey matter volume, while patients with posterior cortical atrophy showed large saccadic intrusions whose frequency correlated significantly with generalized reductions in cortical thickness. Patients with both posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer’s disease showed lower gain in smooth pursuit compared to controls. The current study establishes that eye movement abnormalities are near-ubiquitous in posterior cortical atrophy, and highlights multiple aspects of saccadic performance which distinguish posterior cortical atrophy from typical Alzheimer’s disease. We suggest the posterior cortical atrophy oculomotor profile (e.g. exacerbation of the saccadic gap/overlap effect, preserved saccadic velocity) reflects weak input from degraded occipito-parietal spatial representations of stimulus location into a superior collicular spatial map for eye movement regulation. This may indicate greater impairment of identification of oculomotor targets rather than generation of oculomotor movements. The results highlight the critical role of spatial attention and object identification but also precise stimulus localization in explaining the complex real world perception deficits observed in posterior cortical atrophy and many other patients with dementia-related visual impairment. PMID:25895507

A two-level generative model for cloth representation and shape from shading.

PubMed

Han, Feng; Zhu, Song-Chun

2007-07-01

In this paper, we present a two-level generative model for representing the images and surface depth maps of drapery and clothes. The upper level consists of a number of folds which will generate the high contrast (ridge) areas with a dictionary of shading primitives (for 2D images) and fold primitives (for 3D depth maps). These primitives are represented in parametric forms and are learned in a supervised learning phase using 3D surfaces of clothes acquired through photometric stereo. The lower level consists of the remaining flat areas which fill between the folds with a smoothness prior (Markov random field). We show that the classical ill-posed problem-shape from shading (SFS) can be much improved by this two-level model for its reduced dimensionality and incorporation of middle-level visual knowledge, i.e., the dictionary of primitives. Given an input image, we first infer the folds and compute a sketch graph using a sketch pursuit algorithm as in the primal sketch [10], [11]. The 3D folds are estimated by parameter fitting using the fold dictionary and they form the "skeleton" of the drapery/cloth surfaces. Then, the lower level is computed by conventional SFS method using the fold areas as boundary conditions. The two levels interact at the final stage by optimizing a joint Bayesian posterior probability on the depth map. We show a number of experiments which demonstrate more robust results in comparison with state-of-the-art work. In a broader scope, our representation can be viewed as a two-level inhomogeneous MRF model which is applicable to general shape-from-X problems. Our study is an attempt to revisit Marr's idea [23] of computing the 2(1/2)D sketch from primal sketch. In a companion paper [2], we study shape from stereo based on a similar two-level generative sketch representation.

Assessment of exploration bias in data-driven predictive models and the estimation of undiscovered resources

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coolbaugh, M.F.; Raines, G.L.; Zehner, R.E.

2007-01-01

The spatial distribution of discovered resources may not fully mimic the distribution of all such resources, discovered and undiscovered, because the process of discovery is biased by accessibility factors (e.g., outcrops, roads, and lakes) and by exploration criteria. In data-driven predictive models, the use of training sites (resource occurrences) biased by exploration criteria and accessibility does not necessarily translate to a biased predictive map. However, problems occur when evidence layers correlate with these same exploration factors. These biases then can produce a data-driven model that predicts known occurrences well, but poorly predicts undiscovered resources. Statistical assessment of correlation between evidence layers and map-based exploration factors is difficult because it is difficult to quantify the "degree of exploration." However, if such a degree-of-exploration map can be produced, the benefits can be enormous. Not only does it become possible to assess this correlation, but it becomes possible to predict undiscovered, instead of discovered, resources. Using geothermal systems in Nevada, USA, as an example, a degree-of-exploration model is created, which then is resolved into purely explored and unexplored equivalents, each occurring within coextensive study areas. A weights-of-evidence (WofE) model is built first without regard to the degree of exploration, and then a revised WofE model is calculated for the "explored fraction" only. Differences in the weights between the two models provide a correlation measure between the evidence and the degree of exploration. The data used to build the geothermal evidence layers are perceived to be independent of degree of exploration. Nevertheless, the evidence layers correlate with exploration because exploration has preferred the same favorable areas identified by the evidence patterns. In this circumstance, however, the weights for the "explored" WofE model minimize this bias. Using these revised weights, posterior probability is extrapolated into unexplored areas to estimate undiscovered deposits. ?? International Association for Mathematical Geology 2007.

Spatial analysis of land use and shallow groundwater vulnerability in the watershed adjacent to Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

LaMotte, A.E.; Greene, E.A.

2007-01-01

Spatial relations between land use and groundwater quality in the watershed adjacent to Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia, USA were analyzed by the use of two spatial models. One model used a logit analysis and the other was based on geostatistics. The models were developed and compared on the basis of existing concentrations of nitrate as nitrogen in samples from 529 domestic wells. The models were applied to produce spatial probability maps that show areas in the watershed where concentrations of nitrate in groundwater are likely to exceed a predetermined management threshold value. Maps of the watershed generated by logistic regression and probability kriging analysis showing where the probability of nitrate concentrations would exceed 3 mg/L (>0.50) compared favorably. Logistic regression was less dependent on the spatial distribution of sampled wells, and identified an additional high probability area within the watershed that was missed by probability kriging. The spatial probability maps could be used to determine the natural or anthropogenic factors that best explain the occurrence and distribution of elevated concentrations of nitrate (or other constituents) in shallow groundwater. This information can be used by local land-use planners, ecologists, and managers to protect water supplies and identify land-use planning solutions and monitoring programs in vulnerable areas. ?? 2006 Springer-Verlag.

Parietal and superior frontal visuospatial maps activated by pointing and saccades

PubMed Central

Hagler, D.J.; Riecke, L.; Sereno, M.I.

2009-01-01

A recent study from our laboratory demonstrated that parietal cortex contains a map of visual space related to saccades and spatial attention and identified this area as the likely human homologue of the lateral intraparietal (LIP). A human homologue for the parietal reach region (PRR), thought to preferentially encode planned hand movements, has also been recently proposed. Both of these areas, originally identified in the macaque monkey, have been shown to encode space with eye-centered coordinates. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) of humans was used to test the hypothesis that the putative human PRR contains a retinotopic map recruited by finger pointing but not saccades and to test more generally for differences in the visuospatial maps recruited by pointing and saccades. We identified multiple maps in both posterior parietal cortex and superior frontal cortex recruited for eye and hand movements, including maps not observed in previous mapping studies. Pointing and saccade maps were generally consistent within single subjects. We have developed new group analysis methods for phase-encoded data, which revealed subtle differences between pointing and saccades, including hemispheric asymmetries, but we did not find evidence of pointing-specific maps of visual space. PMID:17376706

Bayesian soft X-ray tomography using non-stationary Gaussian Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Dong; Svensson, J.; Thomsen, H.; Medina, F.; Werner, A.; Wolf, R.

2013-08-01

In this study, a Bayesian based non-stationary Gaussian Process (GP) method for the inference of soft X-ray emissivity distribution along with its associated uncertainties has been developed. For the investigation of equilibrium condition and fast magnetohydrodynamic behaviors in nuclear fusion plasmas, it is of importance to infer, especially in the plasma center, spatially resolved soft X-ray profiles from a limited number of noisy line integral measurements. For this ill-posed inversion problem, Bayesian probability theory can provide a posterior probability distribution over all possible solutions under given model assumptions. Specifically, the use of a non-stationary GP to model the emission allows the model to adapt to the varying length scales of the underlying diffusion process. In contrast to other conventional methods, the prior regularization is realized in a probability form which enhances the capability of uncertainty analysis, in consequence, scientists who concern the reliability of their results will benefit from it. Under the assumption of normally distributed noise, the posterior distribution evaluated at a discrete number of points becomes a multivariate normal distribution whose mean and covariance are analytically available, making inversions and calculation of uncertainty fast. Additionally, the hyper-parameters embedded in the model assumption can be optimized through a Bayesian Occam's Razor formalism and thereby automatically adjust the model complexity. This method is shown to produce convincing reconstructions and good agreements with independently calculated results from the Maximum Entropy and Equilibrium-Based Iterative Tomography Algorithm methods.

Bayesian soft X-ray tomography using non-stationary Gaussian Processes.

PubMed

Li, Dong; Svensson, J; Thomsen, H; Medina, F; Werner, A; Wolf, R

2013-08-01

In this study, a Bayesian based non-stationary Gaussian Process (GP) method for the inference of soft X-ray emissivity distribution along with its associated uncertainties has been developed. For the investigation of equilibrium condition and fast magnetohydrodynamic behaviors in nuclear fusion plasmas, it is of importance to infer, especially in the plasma center, spatially resolved soft X-ray profiles from a limited number of noisy line integral measurements. For this ill-posed inversion problem, Bayesian probability theory can provide a posterior probability distribution over all possible solutions under given model assumptions. Specifically, the use of a non-stationary GP to model the emission allows the model to adapt to the varying length scales of the underlying diffusion process. In contrast to other conventional methods, the prior regularization is realized in a probability form which enhances the capability of uncertainty analysis, in consequence, scientists who concern the reliability of their results will benefit from it. Under the assumption of normally distributed noise, the posterior distribution evaluated at a discrete number of points becomes a multivariate normal distribution whose mean and covariance are analytically available, making inversions and calculation of uncertainty fast. Additionally, the hyper-parameters embedded in the model assumption can be optimized through a Bayesian Occam's Razor formalism and thereby automatically adjust the model complexity. This method is shown to produce convincing reconstructions and good agreements with independently calculated results from the Maximum Entropy and Equilibrium-Based Iterative Tomography Algorithm methods.

Clinical variables associated with recovery in patients with chronic tension-type headache after treatment with manual therapy.

PubMed

Castien, René F; van der Windt, Daniëlle A W M; Blankenstein, Annette H; Heymans, Martijn W; Dekker, Joost

2012-04-01

The aims of this study were to describe the course of chronic tension-type headache (CTTH) in participants receiving manual therapy (MT), and to develop a prognostic model for predicting recovery in participants receiving MT. Outcomes in 145 adults with CTTH who received MT as participants in a previously published randomised clinical trial (n=41) or in a prospective cohort study (n=104) were evaluated. Assessments were made at baseline and at 8 and 26 weeks of follow-up. Recovery was defined as a 50% reduction in headache days in combination with a score of 'much improved' or 'very much improved' for global perceived improvement. Potential prognostic factors were analyzed by univariable and multivariable regression analysis. After 8 weeks 78% of the participants reported recovery after MT, and after 26 weeks the frequency of recovered participants was 73%. Prognostic factors related to recovery were co-existing migraine, absence of multiple-site pain, greater cervical range of motion and higher headache intensity. In participants classified as being likely to be recovered, the posterior probability for recovery at 8 weeks was 92%, whereas for those being classified at low probability of recovery this posterior probability was 61%. It is concluded that the course of CTTH is favourable in primary care patients receiving MT. The prognostic models provide additional information to improve prediction of outcome. Copyright © 2012 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Optimal timing of pulse onset for language mapping with navigated repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation.

PubMed

Krieg, Sandro M; Tarapore, Phiroz E; Picht, Thomas; Tanigawa, Noriko; Houde, John; Sollmann, Nico; Meyer, Bernhard; Vajkoczy, Peter; Berger, Mitchel S; Ringel, Florian; Nagarajan, Srikantan

2014-10-15

Within the primary motor cortex, navigated transcranial magnetic stimulation (nTMS) has been shown to yield maps strongly correlated with those generated by direct cortical stimulation (DCS). However, the stimulation parameters for repetitive nTMS (rTMS)-based language mapping are still being refined. For this purpose, the present study compares two rTMS protocols, which differ in the timing of pulse train onset relative to picture presentation onset during object naming. Results were the correlated with DCS language mapping during awake surgery. Thirty-two patients with left-sided perisylvian tumors were examined by rTMS prior to awake surgery. Twenty patients underwent rTMS pulse trains starting at 300 ms after picture presentation onset (delayed TMS), whereas another 12 patients received rTMS pulse trains starting at the picture presentation onset (ONSET TMS). These rTMS results were then evaluated for correlation with intraoperative DCS results as gold standard in terms of differential consistencies in receiver operating characteristics (ROC) statistics. Logistic regression analysis by protocols and brain regions were conducted. Within and around Broca's area, there was no difference in sensitivity (onset TMS: 100%, delayed TMS: 100%), negative predictive value (NPV) (onset TMS: 100%, delayed TMS: 100%), and positive predictive value (PPV) (onset TMS: 55%, delayed TMS: 54%) between the two protocols compared to DCS. However, specificity differed significantly (onset TMS: 67%, delayed TMS: 28%). In contrast, for posterior language regions, such as supramarginal gyrus, angular gyrus, and posterior superior temporal gyrus, early pulse train onset stimulation showed greater specificity (onset TMS: 92%, delayed TMS: 20%), NPV (onset TMS: 92%, delayed TMS: 57%) and PPV (onset TMS: 75%, delayed TMS: 30%) with comparable sensitivity (onset TMS: 75%, delayed TMS: 70%). Logistic regression analysis also confirmed the greater fit of the predictions by rTMS that had the pulse train onset coincident with the picture presentation onset when compared to the delayed stimulation. Analyses of differential disruption patterns of mapped cortical regions were further able to distinguish clusters of cortical regions standardly associated with semantic and pre-vocalization phonological networks proposed in various models of word production. Repetitive nTMS predictions by both protocols correlate well with DCS outcomes especially in Broca's region, particularly with regard to TMS negative predictions. With this study, we have demonstrated that rTMS stimulation onset coincident with picture presentation onset improves the accuracy of preoperative language maps, particularly within posterior language areas. Moreover, immediate and delayed pulse train onsets may have complementary disruption patterns that could differentially capture cortical regions causally necessary for semantic and pre-vocalization phonological networks. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Probabilistic, Seismically-Induced Landslide Hazard Mapping of Western Oregon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olsen, M. J.; Sharifi Mood, M.; Gillins, D. T.; Mahalingam, R.

2015-12-01

Earthquake-induced landslides can generate significant damage within urban communities by damaging structures, obstructing lifeline connection routes and utilities, generating various environmental impacts, and possibly resulting in loss of life. Reliable hazard and risk maps are important to assist agencies in efficiently allocating and managing limited resources to prepare for such events. This research presents a new methodology in order to communicate site-specific landslide hazard assessments in a large-scale, regional map. Implementation of the proposed methodology results in seismic-induced landslide hazard maps that depict the probabilities of exceeding landslide displacement thresholds (e.g. 0.1, 0.3, 1.0 and 10 meters). These maps integrate a variety of data sources including: recent landslide inventories, LIDAR and photogrammetric topographic data, geology map, mapped NEHRP site classifications based on available shear wave velocity data in each geologic unit, and USGS probabilistic seismic hazard curves. Soil strength estimates were obtained by evaluating slopes present along landslide scarps and deposits for major geologic units. Code was then developed to integrate these layers to perform a rigid, sliding block analysis to determine the amount and associated probabilities of displacement based on each bin of peak ground acceleration in the seismic hazard curve at each pixel. The methodology was applied to western Oregon, which contains weak, weathered, and often wet soils at steep slopes. Such conditions have a high landslide hazard even without seismic events. A series of landslide hazard maps highlighting the probabilities of exceeding the aforementioned thresholds were generated for the study area. These output maps were then utilized in a performance based design framework enabling them to be analyzed in conjunction with other hazards for fully probabilistic-based hazard evaluation and risk assessment. a) School of Civil and Construction Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA

User’s guide for MapMark4—An R package for the probability calculations in three-part mineral resource assessments

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ellefsen, Karl J.

2017-06-27

MapMark4 is a software package that implements the probability calculations in three-part mineral resource assessments. Functions within the software package are written in the R statistical programming language. These functions, their documentation, and a copy of this user’s guide are bundled together in R’s unit of shareable code, which is called a “package.” This user’s guide includes step-by-step instructions showing how the functions are used to carry out the probability calculations. The calculations are demonstrated using test data, which are included in the package.

Assessment of the prevalence of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis in commercially pasteurized milk.

PubMed

Cerf, O; Griffiths, M; Aziza, F

2007-01-01

Conflicting laboratory-acquired data have been published about the heat resistance of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), the cause of the deadly paratuberculosis (Johne's disease) of ruminants. Results of surveys of the presence of MAP in industrially pasteurized milk from several countries are conflicting also. This paper critically reviews the available data on the heat resistance of MAP and, based on these studies, a quantitative model describing the probability of finding MAP in pasteurized milk under the conditions prevailing in industrialized countries was derived using Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation assesses the probability of detecting MAP in 50-mL samples of pasteurized milk as lower than 1%. Hypotheses are presented to explain why higher frequencies were found by some authors; these included improper pasteurization and cross-contamination in the analytical laboratory. Hypotheses implicating a high rate of inter- and intraherd prevalence of paratuberculosis or heavy contamination of raw milk by feces were rejected.

Mapping Wildfire Ignition Probability Using Sentinel 2 and LiDAR (Jerte Valley, Cáceres, Spain)

PubMed Central

Sánchez Sánchez, Yolanda; Mateos Picado, Marina

2018-01-01

Wildfire is a major threat to the environment, and this threat is aggravated by different climatic and socioeconomic factors. The availability of detailed, reliable mapping and periodic and immediate updates makes wildfire prevention and extinction work more effective. An analyst protocol has been generated that allows the precise updating of high-resolution thematic maps. For this protocol, images obtained through the Sentinel 2A satellite, with a return time of five days, have been merged with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with a density of 0.5 points/m2 in order to obtain vegetation mapping with an accuracy of 88% (kappa = 0.86), which is then extrapolated to fuel model mapping through a decision tree. This process, which is fast and reliable, serves as a cartographic base for the later calculation of ignition-probability mapping. The generated cartography is a fundamental tool to be used in the decision making involved in the planning of preventive silvicultural treatments, extinguishing media distribution, infrastructure construction, etc. PMID:29522460

Mapping Wildfire Ignition Probability Using Sentinel 2 and LiDAR (Jerte Valley, Cáceres, Spain).

PubMed

Sánchez Sánchez, Yolanda; Martínez-Graña, Antonio; Santos Francés, Fernando; Mateos Picado, Marina

2018-03-09

Wildfire is a major threat to the environment, and this threat is aggravated by different climatic and socioeconomic factors. The availability of detailed, reliable mapping and periodic and immediate updates makes wildfire prevention and extinction work more effective. An analyst protocol has been generated that allows the precise updating of high-resolution thematic maps. For this protocol, images obtained through the Sentinel 2A satellite, with a return time of five days, have been merged with Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with a density of 0.5 points/m² in order to obtain vegetation mapping with an accuracy of 88% (kappa = 0.86), which is then extrapolated to fuel model mapping through a decision tree. This process, which is fast and reliable, serves as a cartographic base for the later calculation of ignition-probability mapping. The generated cartography is a fundamental tool to be used in the decision making involved in the planning of preventive silvicultural treatments, extinguishing media distribution, infrastructure construction, etc.

Mean apparent propagator (MAP) MRI: a novel diffusion imaging method for mapping tissue microstructure.

PubMed

Özarslan, Evren; Koay, Cheng Guan; Shepherd, Timothy M; Komlosh, Michal E; İrfanoğlu, M Okan; Pierpaoli, Carlo; Basser, Peter J

2013-09-01

Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance (MR) signals reflect information about underlying tissue microstructure and cytoarchitecture. We propose a quantitative, efficient, and robust mathematical and physical framework for representing diffusion-weighted MR imaging (MRI) data obtained in "q-space," and the corresponding "mean apparent propagator (MAP)" describing molecular displacements in "r-space." We also define and map novel quantitative descriptors of diffusion that can be computed robustly using this MAP-MRI framework. We describe efficient analytical representation of the three-dimensional q-space MR signal in a series expansion of basis functions that accurately describes diffusion in many complex geometries. The lowest order term in this expansion contains a diffusion tensor that characterizes the Gaussian displacement distribution, equivalent to diffusion tensor MRI (DTI). Inclusion of higher order terms enables the reconstruction of the true average propagator whose projection onto the unit "displacement" sphere provides an orientational distribution function (ODF) that contains only the orientational dependence of the diffusion process. The representation characterizes novel features of diffusion anisotropy and the non-Gaussian character of the three-dimensional diffusion process. Other important measures this representation provides include the return-to-the-origin probability (RTOP), and its variants for diffusion in one- and two-dimensions-the return-to-the-plane probability (RTPP), and the return-to-the-axis probability (RTAP), respectively. These zero net displacement probabilities measure the mean compartment (pore) volume and cross-sectional area in distributions of isolated pores irrespective of the pore shape. MAP-MRI represents a new comprehensive framework to model the three-dimensional q-space signal and transform it into diffusion propagators. Experiments on an excised marmoset brain specimen demonstrate that MAP-MRI provides several novel, quantifiable parameters that capture previously obscured intrinsic features of nervous tissue microstructure. This should prove helpful for investigating the functional organization of normal and pathologic nervous tissue. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Verification of the WFAS Lightning Efficiency Map

Treesearch

Paul Sopko; Don Latham; Isaac Grenfell

2007-01-01

A Lightning Ignition Efficiency map was added to the suite of daily maps offered by the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) in 1999. This map computes a lightning probability of ignition (POI) based on the estimated fuel type, fuel depth, and 100-hour fuel moisture interpolated from the Remote Automated Weather Station (RAWS) network. An attempt to verify the...

State-space modeling to support management of brucellosis in the Yellowstone bison population

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Geremia, Chris; Treanor, John; Wallen, Rick; White, P.J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Rhyan, Jack C.

2015-01-01

The bison (Bison bison) of the Yellowstone ecosystem, USA, exemplify the difficulty of conserving large mammals that migrate across the boundaries of conservation areas. Bison are infected with brucellosis (Brucella abortus) and their seasonal movements can expose livestock to infection. Yellowstone National Park has embarked on a program of adaptive management of bison, which requires a model that assimilates data to support management decisions. We constructed a Bayesian state-space model to reveal the influence of brucellosis on the Yellowstone bison population. A frequency-dependent model of brucellosis transmission was superior to a density-dependent model in predicting out-of-sample observations of horizontal transmission probability. A mixture model including both transmission mechanisms converged on frequency dependence. Conditional on the frequency-dependent model, brucellosis median transmission rate was 1.87 yr−1. The median of the posterior distribution of the basic reproductive ratio (R0) was 1.75. Seroprevalence of adult females varied around 60% over two decades, but only 9.6 of 100 adult females were infectious. Brucellosis depressed recruitment; estimated population growth rate λ averaged 1.07 for an infected population and 1.11 for a healthy population. We used five-year forecasting to evaluate the ability of different actions to meet management goals relative to no action. Annually removing 200 seropositive female bison increased by 30-fold the probability of reducing seroprevalence below 40% and increased by a factor of 120 the probability of achieving a 50% reduction in transmission probability relative to no action. Annually vaccinating 200 seronegative animals increased the likelihood of a 50% reduction in transmission probability by fivefold over no action. However, including uncertainty in the ability to implement management by representing stochastic variation in the number of accessible bison dramatically reduced the probability of achieving goals using interventions relative to no action. Because the width of the posterior predictive distributions of future population states expands rapidly with increases in the forecast horizon, managers must accept high levels of uncertainty. These findings emphasize the necessity of iterative, adaptive management with relatively short-term commitment to action and frequent reevaluation in response to new data and model forecasts. We believe our approach has broad applications.

Altered functional MR imaging language activation in elderly individuals with cerebral leukoaraiosis.

PubMed

Welker, Kirk M; De Jesus, Reordan O; Watson, Robert E; Machulda, Mary M; Jack, Clifford R

2012-10-01

To test the hypothesis that leukoaraiosis alters functional activation during a semantic decision language task. With institutional review board approval and written informed consent, 18 right-handed, cognitively healthy elderly participants with an aggregate leukoaraiosis lesion volume of more than 25 cm(3) and 18 age-matched control participants with less than 5 cm(3) of leukoaraiosis underwent functional MR imaging to allow comparison of activation during semantic decisions with that during visual perceptual decisions. Brain statistical maps were derived from the general linear model. Spatially normalized group t maps were created from individual contrast images. A cluster extent threshold of 215 voxels was used to correct for multiple comparisons. Intergroup random effects analysis was performed. Language laterality indexes were calculated for each participant. In control participants, semantic decisions activated the bilateral visual cortex, left posteroinferior temporal lobe, left posterior cingulate gyrus, left frontal lobe expressive language regions, and left basal ganglia. Visual perceptual decisions activated the right parietal and posterior temporal lobes. Participants with leukoaraiosis showed reduced activation in all regions associated with semantic decisions; however, activation associated with visual perceptual decisions increased in extent. Intergroup analysis showed significant activation decreases in the left anterior occipital lobe (P=.016), right posterior temporal lobe (P=.048), and right basal ganglia (P=.009) in particpants with leukoariosis. Individual participant laterality indexes showed a strong trend (P=.059) toward greater left lateralization in the leukoaraiosis group. Moderate leukoaraiosis is associated with atypical functional activation during semantic decision tasks. Consequently, leukoaraiosis is an important confounding variable in functional MR imaging studies of elderly individuals. © RSNA, 2012.

Myocardium Segmentation From DE MRI Using Multicomponent Gaussian Mixture Model and Coupled Level Set.

PubMed

Liu, Jie; Zhuang, Xiahai; Wu, Lianming; An, Dongaolei; Xu, Jianrong; Peters, Terry; Gu, Lixu

2017-11-01

Objective: In this paper, we propose a fully automatic framework for myocardium segmentation of delayed-enhancement (DE) MRI images without relying on prior patient-specific information. Methods: We employ a multicomponent Gaussian mixture model to deal with the intensity heterogeneity of myocardium caused by the infarcts. To differentiate the myocardium from other tissues with similar intensities, while at the same time maintain spatial continuity, we introduce a coupled level set (CLS) to regularize the posterior probability. The CLS, as a spatial regularization, can be adapted to the image characteristics dynamically. We also introduce an image intensity gradient based term into the CLS, adding an extra force to the posterior probability based framework, to improve the accuracy of myocardium boundary delineation. The prebuilt atlases are propagated to the target image to initialize the framework. Results: The proposed method was tested on datasets of 22 clinical cases, and achieved Dice similarity coefficients of 87.43 ± 5.62% (endocardium), 90.53 ± 3.20% (epicardium) and 73.58 ± 5.58% (myocardium), which have outperformed three variants of the classic segmentation methods. Conclusion: The results can provide a benchmark for the myocardial segmentation in the literature. Significance: DE MRI provides an important tool to assess the viability of myocardium. The accurate segmentation of myocardium, which is a prerequisite for further quantitative analysis of myocardial infarction (MI) region, can provide important support for the diagnosis and treatment management for MI patients. Objective: In this paper, we propose a fully automatic framework for myocardium segmentation of delayed-enhancement (DE) MRI images without relying on prior patient-specific information. Methods: We employ a multicomponent Gaussian mixture model to deal with the intensity heterogeneity of myocardium caused by the infarcts. To differentiate the myocardium from other tissues with similar intensities, while at the same time maintain spatial continuity, we introduce a coupled level set (CLS) to regularize the posterior probability. The CLS, as a spatial regularization, can be adapted to the image characteristics dynamically. We also introduce an image intensity gradient based term into the CLS, adding an extra force to the posterior probability based framework, to improve the accuracy of myocardium boundary delineation. The prebuilt atlases are propagated to the target image to initialize the framework. Results: The proposed method was tested on datasets of 22 clinical cases, and achieved Dice similarity coefficients of 87.43 ± 5.62% (endocardium), 90.53 ± 3.20% (epicardium) and 73.58 ± 5.58% (myocardium), which have outperformed three variants of the classic segmentation methods. Conclusion: The results can provide a benchmark for the myocardial segmentation in the literature. Significance: DE MRI provides an important tool to assess the viability of myocardium. The accurate segmentation of myocardium, which is a prerequisite for further quantitative analysis of myocardial infarction (MI) region, can provide important support for the diagnosis and treatment management for MI patients.

Quantitative assessment and characterization of glenoid bone loss in a spectrum of patients with glenohumeral osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Lombardo, D J; Khan, J; Prey, B; Zhang, L; Petersen-Fitts, G R; Sabesan, V J

2016-12-01

Eccentric posterior bone loss and associated glenoid retroversion represent challenges to glenoid placement during total shoulder arthroplasty. This bone loss can lead to poor stability and perforation of the glenoid during arthroplasty. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the morphology of glenoid bone loss for a spectrum of osteoarthritis patients using 3D computed tomography imaging and simulation software. This study included 29 patients with glenohumeral osteoarthritis treated with shoulder arthroplasty. Three-dimensional reconstruction of preoperative CT images was performed. Glenoid bone loss was measured at ten, vertically equidistant axial planes along the glenoid surface at four distinct anterior-posterior points on each plane. The images were fitted with modeled pegged glenoid implants to predict glenoid perforation. The 3D maps demonstrated greatest average bone loss posteriorly in the AP plane at the central axis of the glenoid in the SI plane. The average amount of bone loss was 3.85 mm. Walch A2 and B1 shoulders showed more central bone loss, while Walch B2 shoulders displayed more posterior and inferior bone loss. Patients with predicted peg perforation displayed significantly greater bone loss than those without predicted peg perforation (p = 0.037). Peg perforation was most common in Walch B2 shoulders occurring in the posterior direction involving the central and posterior-inferior peg. These data demonstrate an anatomic pattern of glenoid bone loss for different classes of glenohumeral arthritis. These findings can be used to develop various models of glenoid bone loss to guide surgeons, predict failures, and develop better glenoid implants. This study has been approved by the Cleveland Clinic IRB: Number 6235.

Scleral Biomechanics in the Aging Monkey Eye

PubMed Central

Girard, Michaël J. A.; Suh, J-K. Francis; Bottlang, Michael; Burgoyne, Claude F.; Downs, J. Crawford

2010-01-01

Purpose To investigate the age-related differences in the inhomogeneous, anisotropic, nonlinear biomechanical properties of posterior sclera from old (22.9 ± 5.3 years) and young (1.5 ± 0.7 years) rhesus monkeys. Methods The posterior scleral shell of each eye was mounted on a custom-built pressurization apparatus, then intraocular pressure (IOP) was elevated from 5 to 45 mmHg while the 3D displacements of the scleral surface were measured using speckle interferometry. Each scleral shell geometry was digitally reconstructed from data generated by a 3D digitizer (topography) and 20 MHz ultrasounds (thickness). An inverse finite element (FE) method incorporating a fiber-reinforced constitutive model was used to extract a unique set of biomechanical properties for each eye. Displacements, thickness, stress, strain, tangent modulus, structural stiffness, and preferred collagen fiber orientation were mapped for each posterior sclera. Results The model yielded 3-D deformations of posterior sclera that matched well with those observed experimentally. The posterior sclera exhibited inhomogeneous, anisotropic, nonlinear mechanical behavior. The sclera was significantly thinner (p = 0.038), and tangent modulus and structural stiffness were significantly higher in old monkeys (p < 0.0001). On average, scleral collagen fibers were circumferentially oriented around the optic nerve head (ONH). We found no difference in the preferred collagen fiber orientation and fiber concentration factor between age groups. Conclusions Posterior sclera from old monkeys is significantly stiffer than that from young monkeys and is therefore subject to higher stresses but lower strains at all levels of IOP. Age-related stiffening of the sclera may significantly influence ONH biomechanics, and potentially contribute to age-related susceptibility to glaucomatous vision loss. PMID:19494203

A clear map of the lower cranial nerves at the superior carotid triangle.

PubMed

Cavalcanti, Daniel D; Garcia-Gonzalez, Ulises; Agrawal, Abhishek; Tavares, Paulo L M S; Spetzler, Robert F; Preul, Mark C

2010-07-01

The lower cranial nerves must be identified to avoid iatrogenic injury during skull base and high cervical approaches. Prompt recognition of these structures using basic landmarks could reduce surgical time and morbidity. The anterior triangle of the neck was dissected in 30 cadaveric head sides. The most superficial segments of the glossopharyngeal, vagus and its superior laryngeal nerves, accessory, and hypoglossal nerves were exposed and designated into smaller anatomic triangles. The midpoint of each nerve segment inside the triangles was correlated to the angle of the mandible (AM), mastoid tip (MT), and bifurcation of the common carotid artery. A triangle bounded by the styloglossus muscle, external carotid artery, and facial artery housed the glossopharyngeal nerve. This nerve segment was 0.06 ± 0.71 cm posterior to the AM and 2.50 ± 0.59 cm inferior to the MT. The vagus nerve ran inside the carotid sheath posterior to internal carotid artery and common carotid artery bifurcation in 48.3% of specimens. A triangle formed by the posterior belly of digastric muscle, sternocleidomastoid muscle, and internal jugular vein housed the accessory nerve, 1.90 ± 0.60 cm posterior to the AM and 2.30 ± 0.57 cm inferior to the MT. A triangle outlined by the posterior belly of digastric muscle, internal jugular vein, and common facial vein housed the hypoglossal nerve, which was 0.82 ± 0.84 cm posterior to the AM and 3.64 ± 0.70 cm inferior to the MT. Comprehensible landmarks can be defined to help expose the lower cranial nerves to avoid injury to this complex region. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sampling probability distributions of lesions in mammograms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Looney, P.; Warren, L. M.; Dance, D. R.; Young, K. C.

2015-03-01

One approach to image perception studies in mammography using virtual clinical trials involves the insertion of simulated lesions into normal mammograms. To facilitate this, a method has been developed that allows for sampling of lesion positions across the cranio-caudal and medio-lateral radiographic projections in accordance with measured distributions of real lesion locations. 6825 mammograms from our mammography image database were segmented to find the breast outline. The outlines were averaged and smoothed to produce an average outline for each laterality and radiographic projection. Lesions in 3304 mammograms with malignant findings were mapped on to a standardised breast image corresponding to the average breast outline using piecewise affine transforms. A four dimensional probability distribution function was found from the lesion locations in the cranio-caudal and medio-lateral radiographic projections for calcification and noncalcification lesions. Lesion locations sampled from this probability distribution function were mapped on to individual mammograms using a piecewise affine transform which transforms the average outline to the outline of the breast in the mammogram. The four dimensional probability distribution function was validated by comparing it to the two dimensional distributions found by considering each radiographic projection and laterality independently. The correlation of the location of the lesions sampled from the four dimensional probability distribution function across radiographic projections was shown to match the correlation of the locations of the original mapped lesion locations. The current system has been implemented as a web-service on a server using the Python Django framework. The server performs the sampling, performs the mapping and returns the results in a javascript object notation format.

Nonmuscle myosin IIA and IIB differentially contribute to intrinsic and directed migration of human embryonic lung fibroblasts.

PubMed

Kuragano, Masahiro; Murakami, Yota; Takahashi, Masayuki

2018-03-25

Nonmuscle myosin II (NMII) plays an essential role in directional cell migration. In this study, we investigated the roles of NMII isoforms (NMIIA and NMIIB) in the migration of human embryonic lung fibroblasts, which exhibit directionally persistent migration in an intrinsic manner. NMIIA-knockdown (KD) cells migrated unsteadily, but their direction of migration was approximately maintained. By contrast, NMIIB-KD cells occasionally reversed their direction of migration. Lamellipodium-like protrusions formed in the posterior region of NMIIB-KD cells prior to reversal of the migration direction. Moreover, NMIIB KD led to elongation of the posterior region in migrating cells, probably due to the lack of load-bearing stress fibers in this area. These results suggest that NMIIA plays a role in steering migration by maintaining stable protrusions in the anterior region, whereas NMIIB plays a role in maintenance of front-rear polarity by preventing aberrant protrusion formation in the posterior region. These distinct functions of NMIIA and NMIIB might promote intrinsic and directed migration of normal human fibroblasts. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inference with minimal Gibbs free energy in information field theory.

PubMed

Ensslin, Torsten A; Weig, Cornelius

2010-11-01

Non-linear and non-gaussian signal inference problems are difficult to tackle. Renormalization techniques permit us to construct good estimators for the posterior signal mean within information field theory (IFT), but the approximations and assumptions made are not very obvious. Here we introduce the simple concept of minimal Gibbs free energy to IFT, and show that previous renormalization results emerge naturally. They can be understood as being the gaussian approximation to the full posterior probability, which has maximal cross information with it. We derive optimized estimators for three applications, to illustrate the usage of the framework: (i) reconstruction of a log-normal signal from poissonian data with background counts and point spread function, as it is needed for gamma ray astronomy and for cosmography using photometric galaxy redshifts, (ii) inference of a gaussian signal with unknown spectrum, and (iii) inference of a poissonian log-normal signal with unknown spectrum, the combination of (i) and (ii). Finally we explain how gaussian knowledge states constructed by the minimal Gibbs free energy principle at different temperatures can be combined into a more accurate surrogate of the non-gaussian posterior.

Risk-targeted maps for Romania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vacareanu, Radu; Pavel, Florin; Craciun, Ionut; Coliba, Veronica; Arion, Cristian; Aldea, Alexandru; Neagu, Cristian

2018-03-01

Romania has one of the highest seismic hazard levels in Europe. The seismic hazard is due to a combination of local crustal seismic sources, situated mainly in the western part of the country and the Vrancea intermediate-depth seismic source, which can be found at the bend of the Carpathian Mountains. Recent seismic hazard studies have shown that there are consistent differences between the slopes of the seismic hazard curves for sites situated in the fore-arc and back-arc of the Carpathian Mountains. Consequently, in this study we extend this finding to the evaluation of the probability of collapse of buildings and finally to the development of uniform risk-targeted maps. The main advantage of uniform risk approach is that the target probability of collapse will be uniform throughout the country. Finally, the results obtained are discussed in the light of a recent study with the same focus performed at European level using the hazard data from SHARE project. The analyses performed in this study have pointed out to a dominant influence of the quantile of peak ground acceleration used for anchoring the fragility function. This parameter basically alters the shape of the risk-targeted maps shifting the areas which have higher collapse probabilities from eastern Romania to western Romania, as its exceedance probability increases. Consequently, a uniform procedure for deriving risk-targeted maps appears as more than necessary.

RadVel: The Radial Velocity Modeling Toolkit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulton, Benjamin J.; Petigura, Erik A.; Blunt, Sarah; Sinukoff, Evan

2018-04-01

RadVel is an open-source Python package for modeling Keplerian orbits in radial velocity (RV) timeseries. RadVel provides a convenient framework to fit RVs using maximum a posteriori optimization and to compute robust confidence intervals by sampling the posterior probability density via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). RadVel allows users to float or fix parameters, impose priors, and perform Bayesian model comparison. We have implemented real-time MCMC convergence tests to ensure adequate sampling of the posterior. RadVel can output a number of publication-quality plots and tables. Users may interface with RadVel through a convenient command-line interface or directly from Python. The code is object-oriented and thus naturally extensible. We encourage contributions from the community. Documentation is available at http://radvel.readthedocs.io.

Pippi — Painless parsing, post-processing and plotting of posterior and likelihood samples

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Pat

2012-11-01

Interpreting samples from likelihood or posterior probability density functions is rarely as straightforward as it seems it should be. Producing publication-quality graphics of these distributions is often similarly painful. In this short note I describe pippi, a simple, publicly available package for parsing and post-processing such samples, as well as generating high-quality PDF graphics of the results. Pippi is easily and extensively configurable and customisable, both in its options for parsing and post-processing samples, and in the visual aspects of the figures it produces. I illustrate some of these using an existing supersymmetric global fit, performed in the context of a gamma-ray search for dark matter. Pippi can be downloaded and followed at http://github.com/patscott/pippi.

Determining X-ray source intensity and confidence bounds in crowded fields

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Primini, F. A.; Kashyap, V. L., E-mail: fap@head.cfa.harvard.edu

We present a rigorous description of the general problem of aperture photometry in high-energy astrophysics photon-count images, in which the statistical noise model is Poisson, not Gaussian. We compute the full posterior probability density function for the expected source intensity for various cases of interest, including the important cases in which both source and background apertures contain contributions from the source, and when multiple source apertures partially overlap. A Bayesian approach offers the advantages of allowing one to (1) include explicit prior information on source intensities, (2) propagate posterior distributions as priors for future observations, and (3) use Poisson likelihoods,more » making the treatment valid in the low-counts regime. Elements of this approach have been implemented in the Chandra Source Catalog.« less

A study on cerebral hemodynamic analysis of moyamoya disease by using perfusion MRI

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Kyung-Rae; Goo, Eun-Hoe; Lee, Jae-Seung; Chung, Woon-Kwan

2013-10-01

This study examined the clinical applications of perfusion magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in patients with moyamoya disease (MMD). Twenty-two patients with moyamoya disease (9 men and 13 women) with a mean age of 9.3 years (range: 4-22 years) were enrolled in this study. Perfusion MRI was performed by scanning the patients7.5 cm upward from the base of the cerebellum before their being process for post-treatment. The scan led to the acquisition of the following four map images: the cerebral blood volume (CBV), the cerebral blood flow (CBF), the mean transit time (MTT) for the contrast medium, and the time to peak (TTP) for the contrast medium. The lesions were assessed using the CBV, the CBF, the MTT and the TTP maps of perfusion MRI; the MTT and the TTP were measured in the lesion areas, as well as in the normal and the symmetric areas. Perfusion defects were recognizable in all four perfusion MRI maps, and the MTT and the TTP showed a conspicuous delay in the parts where perfusion defects were recognized. The MTT and the TTP images of perfusion MRI reflected a significant correlation between the degrees of stenosis and occlusion in the posterior cerebral artery (PCA), as well as the development of collateral vessels. The four perfusion MRI maps could be used to predict the degrees of stenosis and occlusion in the posterior circulation, as well as the development of the collateral vessels, which enabled a hemodynamic evaluation of the parts with perfusion defects. Overall, perfusion MRI is useful for the diagnosis and the treatment of moyamoya disease and can be applied to clinical practice.

Estimation of Posterior Probabilities Using Multivariate Smoothing Splines and Generalized Cross-Validation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-09-01

Ciencia y Tecnologia -Mexico, by ONR under Contract No. N00014-77-C-0675, and by ARO under Contract No. DAAG29-80-K-0042. LUJ THE VIE~W, rTIJ. ’~v ’’~c...Department of Statis- tics. For financial support I thank the Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia - Mexico, and the Department of Statistics of the

Reading in the brain of children and adults: A meta‐analysis of 40 functional magnetic resonance imaging studies

PubMed Central

Martin, Anna; Schurz, Matthias; Kronbichler, Martin

2015-01-01

Abstract We used quantitative, coordinate‐based meta‐analysis to objectively synthesize age‐related commonalities and differences in brain activation patterns reported in 40 functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies of reading in children and adults. Twenty fMRI studies with adults (age means: 23–34 years) were matched to 20 studies with children (age means: 7–12 years). The separate meta‐analyses of these two sets showed a pattern of reading‐related brain activation common to children and adults in left ventral occipito‐temporal (OT), inferior frontal, and posterior parietal regions. The direct statistical comparison between the two meta‐analytic maps of children and adults revealed higher convergence in studies with children in left superior temporal and bilateral supplementary motor regions. In contrast, higher convergence in studies with adults was identified in bilateral posterior OT/cerebellar and left dorsal precentral regions. The results are discussed in relation to current neuroanatomical models of reading and tentative functional interpretations of reading‐related activation clusters in children and adults are provided. Hum Brain Mapp 36:1963–1981, 2015. © 2015 The Authors Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.. PMID:25628041

Finite element model updating using the shadow hybrid Monte Carlo technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boulkaibet, I.; Mthembu, L.; Marwala, T.; Friswell, M. I.; Adhikari, S.

2015-02-01

Recent research in the field of finite element model updating (FEM) advocates the adoption of Bayesian analysis techniques to dealing with the uncertainties associated with these models. However, Bayesian formulations require the evaluation of the Posterior Distribution Function which may not be available in analytical form. This is the case in FEM updating. In such cases sampling methods can provide good approximations of the Posterior distribution when implemented in the Bayesian context. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are the most popular sampling tools used to sample probability distributions. However, the efficiency of these algorithms is affected by the complexity of the systems (the size of the parameter space). The Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) offers a very important MCMC approach to dealing with higher-dimensional complex problems. The HMC uses the molecular dynamics (MD) steps as the global Monte Carlo (MC) moves to reach areas of high probability where the gradient of the log-density of the Posterior acts as a guide during the search process. However, the acceptance rate of HMC is sensitive to the system size as well as the time step used to evaluate the MD trajectory. To overcome this limitation we propose the use of the Shadow Hybrid Monte Carlo (SHMC) algorithm. The SHMC algorithm is a modified version of the Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) and designed to improve sampling for large-system sizes and time steps. This is done by sampling from a modified Hamiltonian function instead of the normal Hamiltonian function. In this paper, the efficiency and accuracy of the SHMC method is tested on the updating of two real structures; an unsymmetrical H-shaped beam structure and a GARTEUR SM-AG19 structure and is compared to the application of the HMC algorithm on the same structures.

Scanning electron microscopy of the trabecular meshwork: understanding the pathogenesis of primary angle closure glaucoma.

PubMed

Sihota, Ramanjit; Goyal, Amita; Kaur, Jasbir; Gupta, Viney; Nag, Tapas C

2012-01-01

To study ultrastructural changes of the trabecular meshwork in acute and chronic primary angle closure glaucoma (PACG) and primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) eyes by scanning electron microscopy. Twenty-one trabecular meshwork surgical specimens from consecutive glaucomatous eyes after a trabeculectomy and five postmortem corneoscleral specimens were fixed immediately in Karnovsky solution. The tissues were washed in 0.1 M phosphate buffer saline, post-fixed in 1% osmium tetraoxide, dehydrated in acetone series (30-100%), dried and mounted. Normal trabecular tissue showed well-defined, thin, cylindrical uveal trabecular beams with many large spaces, overlying flatter corneoscleral beams and numerous smaller spaces. In acute PACG eyes, the trabecular meshwork showed grossly swollen, irregular trabecular endothelial cells with intercellular and occasional basal separation with few spaces. Numerous activated macrophages, leucocytes and amorphous debris were present. Chronic PACG eyes had a few, thickened posterior uveal trabecular beams visible. A homogenous deposit covered the anterior uveal trabeculae and spaces. Converging, fan-shaped trabecular beam configuration corresponded to gonioscopic areas of peripheral anterior synechiae. In POAG eyes, anterior uveal trabecular beams were thin and strap-like, while those posteriorly were wide, with a homogenous deposit covering and bridging intertrabecular spaces, especially posteriorly. Underlying corneoscleral trabecular layers and spaces were visualized in some areas. In acute PACG a marked edema of the endothelium probably contributes for the acute and marked intraocular pressure (IOP) elevation. Chronically raised IOP in chronic PACG and POAG probably results, at least in part, from decreased aqueous outflow secondary to widening and fusion of adjacent trabecular beams, together with the homogenous deposit enmeshing trabecular beams and spaces.

Structural Information from Single-molecule FRET Experiments Using the Fast Nano-positioning System

PubMed Central

Röcker, Carlheinz; Nagy, Julia; Michaelis, Jens

2017-01-01

Single-molecule Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (smFRET) can be used to obtain structural information on biomolecular complexes in real-time. Thereby, multiple smFRET measurements are used to localize an unknown dye position inside a protein complex by means of trilateration. In order to obtain quantitative information, the Nano-Positioning System (NPS) uses probabilistic data analysis to combine structural information from X-ray crystallography with single-molecule fluorescence data to calculate not only the most probable position but the complete three-dimensional probability distribution, termed posterior, which indicates the experimental uncertainty. The concept was generalized for the analysis of smFRET networks containing numerous dye molecules. The latest version of NPS, Fast-NPS, features a new algorithm using Bayesian parameter estimation based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling and parallel tempering that allows for the analysis of large smFRET networks in a comparably short time. Moreover, Fast-NPS allows the calculation of the posterior by choosing one of five different models for each dye, that account for the different spatial and orientational behavior exhibited by the dye molecules due to their local environment. Here we present a detailed protocol for obtaining smFRET data and applying the Fast-NPS. We provide detailed instructions for the acquisition of the three input parameters of Fast-NPS: the smFRET values, as well as the quantum yield and anisotropy of the dye molecules. Recently, the NPS has been used to elucidate the architecture of an archaeal open promotor complex. This data is used to demonstrate the influence of the five different dye models on the posterior distribution. PMID:28287526

Structural Information from Single-molecule FRET Experiments Using the Fast Nano-positioning System.

PubMed

Dörfler, Thilo; Eilert, Tobias; Röcker, Carlheinz; Nagy, Julia; Michaelis, Jens

2017-02-09

Single-molecule Förster Resonance Energy Transfer (smFRET) can be used to obtain structural information on biomolecular complexes in real-time. Thereby, multiple smFRET measurements are used to localize an unknown dye position inside a protein complex by means of trilateration. In order to obtain quantitative information, the Nano-Positioning System (NPS) uses probabilistic data analysis to combine structural information from X-ray crystallography with single-molecule fluorescence data to calculate not only the most probable position but the complete three-dimensional probability distribution, termed posterior, which indicates the experimental uncertainty. The concept was generalized for the analysis of smFRET networks containing numerous dye molecules. The latest version of NPS, Fast-NPS, features a new algorithm using Bayesian parameter estimation based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling and parallel tempering that allows for the analysis of large smFRET networks in a comparably short time. Moreover, Fast-NPS allows the calculation of the posterior by choosing one of five different models for each dye, that account for the different spatial and orientational behavior exhibited by the dye molecules due to their local environment. Here we present a detailed protocol for obtaining smFRET data and applying the Fast-NPS. We provide detailed instructions for the acquisition of the three input parameters of Fast-NPS: the smFRET values, as well as the quantum yield and anisotropy of the dye molecules. Recently, the NPS has been used to elucidate the architecture of an archaeal open promotor complex. This data is used to demonstrate the influence of the five different dye models on the posterior distribution.

Approximate Bayesian estimation of extinction rate in the Finnish Daphnia magna metapopulation.

PubMed

Robinson, John D; Hall, David W; Wares, John P

2013-05-01

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is useful for parameterizing complex models in population genetics. In this study, ABC was applied to simultaneously estimate parameter values for a model of metapopulation coalescence and test two alternatives to a strict metapopulation model in the well-studied network of Daphnia magna populations in Finland. The models shared four free parameters: the subpopulation genetic diversity (θS), the rate of gene flow among patches (4Nm), the founding population size (N0) and the metapopulation extinction rate (e) but differed in the distribution of extinction rates across habitat patches in the system. The three models had either a constant extinction rate in all populations (strict metapopulation), one population that was protected from local extinction (i.e. a persistent source), or habitat-specific extinction rates drawn from a distribution with specified mean and variance. Our model selection analysis favoured the model including a persistent source population over the two alternative models. Of the closest 750,000 data sets in Euclidean space, 78% were simulated under the persistent source model (estimated posterior probability = 0.769). This fraction increased to more than 85% when only the closest 150,000 data sets were considered (estimated posterior probability = 0.774). Approximate Bayesian computation was then used to estimate parameter values that might produce the observed set of summary statistics. Our analysis provided posterior distributions for e that included the point estimate obtained from previous data from the Finnish D. magna metapopulation. Our results support the use of ABC and population genetic data for testing the strict metapopulation model and parameterizing complex models of demography. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A multi-part matching strategy for mapping LOINC with laboratory terminologies

PubMed Central

Lee, Li-Hui; Groß, Anika; Hartung, Michael; Liou, Der-Ming; Rahm, Erhard

2014-01-01

Objective To address the problem of mapping local laboratory terminologies to Logical Observation Identifiers Names and Codes (LOINC). To study different ontology matching algorithms and investigate how the probability of term combinations in LOINC helps to increase match quality and reduce manual effort. Materials and methods We proposed two matching strategies: full name and multi-part. The multi-part approach also considers the occurrence probability of combined concept parts. It can further recommend possible combinations of concept parts to allow more local terms to be mapped. Three real-world laboratory databases from Taiwanese hospitals were used to validate the proposed strategies with respect to different quality measures and execution run time. A comparison with the commonly used tool, Regenstrief LOINC Mapping Assistant (RELMA) Lab Auto Mapper (LAM), was also carried out. Results The new multi-part strategy yields the best match quality, with F-measure values between 89% and 96%. It can automatically match 70–85% of the laboratory terminologies to LOINC. The recommendation step can further propose mapping to (proposed) LOINC concepts for 9–20% of the local terminology concepts. On average, 91% of the local terminology concepts can be correctly mapped to existing or newly proposed LOINC concepts. Conclusions The mapping quality of the multi-part strategy is significantly better than that of LAM. It enables domain experts to perform LOINC matching with little manual work. The probability of term combinations proved to be a valuable strategy for increasing the quality of match results, providing recommendations for proposed LOINC conepts, and decreasing the run time for match processing. PMID:24363318

Automated segmentation of dental CBCT image with prior-guided sequential random forests

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Li; Gao, Yaozong; Shi, Feng

Purpose: Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) is an increasingly utilized imaging modality for the diagnosis and treatment planning of the patients with craniomaxillofacial (CMF) deformities. Accurate segmentation of CBCT image is an essential step to generate 3D models for the diagnosis and treatment planning of the patients with CMF deformities. However, due to the image artifacts caused by beam hardening, imaging noise, inhomogeneity, truncation, and maximal intercuspation, it is difficult to segment the CBCT. Methods: In this paper, the authors present a new automatic segmentation method to address these problems. Specifically, the authors first employ a majority voting method to estimatemore » the initial segmentation probability maps of both mandible and maxilla based on multiple aligned expert-segmented CBCT images. These probability maps provide an important prior guidance for CBCT segmentation. The authors then extract both the appearance features from CBCTs and the context features from the initial probability maps to train the first-layer of random forest classifier that can select discriminative features for segmentation. Based on the first-layer of trained classifier, the probability maps are updated, which will be employed to further train the next layer of random forest classifier. By iteratively training the subsequent random forest classifier using both the original CBCT features and the updated segmentation probability maps, a sequence of classifiers can be derived for accurate segmentation of CBCT images. Results: Segmentation results on CBCTs of 30 subjects were both quantitatively and qualitatively validated based on manually labeled ground truth. The average Dice ratios of mandible and maxilla by the authors’ method were 0.94 and 0.91, respectively, which are significantly better than the state-of-the-art method based on sparse representation (p-value < 0.001). Conclusions: The authors have developed and validated a novel fully automated method for CBCT segmentation.« less

Probabilistically modeling lava flows with MOLASSES

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Richardson, J. A.; Connor, L.; Connor, C.; Gallant, E.

2017-12-01

Modeling lava flows through Cellular Automata methods enables a computationally inexpensive means to quickly forecast lava flow paths and ultimate areal extents. We have developed a lava flow simulator, MOLASSES, that forecasts lava flow inundation over an elevation model from a point source eruption. This modular code can be implemented in a deterministic fashion with given user inputs that will produce a single lava flow simulation. MOLASSES can also be implemented in a probabilistic fashion where given user inputs define parameter distributions that are randomly sampled to create many lava flow simulations. This probabilistic approach enables uncertainty in input data to be expressed in the model results and MOLASSES outputs a probability map of inundation instead of a determined lava flow extent. Since the code is comparatively fast, we use it probabilistically to investigate where potential vents are located that may impact specific sites and areas, as well as the unconditional probability of lava flow inundation of sites or areas from any vent. We have validated the MOLASSES code to community-defined benchmark tests and to the real world lava flows at Tolbachik (2012-2013) and Pico do Fogo (2014-2015). To determine the efficacy of the MOLASSES simulator at accurately and precisely mimicking the inundation area of real flows, we report goodness of fit using both model sensitivity and the Positive Predictive Value, the latter of which is a Bayesian posterior statistic. Model sensitivity is often used in evaluating lava flow simulators, as it describes how much of the lava flow was successfully modeled by the simulation. We argue that the positive predictive value is equally important in determining how good a simulator is, as it describes the percentage of the simulation space that was actually inundated by lava.

Liquefaction Hazard Maps for Three Earthquake Scenarios for the Communities of San Jose, Campbell, Cupertino, Los Altos, Los Gatos, Milpitas, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Santa Clara, Saratoga, and Sunnyvale, Northern Santa Clara County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holzer, Thomas L.; Noce, Thomas E.; Bennett, Michael J.

2008-01-01

Maps showing the probability of surface manifestations of liquefaction in the northern Santa Clara Valley were prepared with liquefaction probability curves. The area includes the communities of San Jose, Campbell, Cupertino, Los Altos, Los Gatos Milpitas, Mountain View, Palo Alto, Santa Clara, Saratoga, and Sunnyvale. The probability curves were based on complementary cumulative frequency distributions of the liquefaction potential index (LPI) for surficial geologic units in the study area. LPI values were computed with extensive cone penetration test soundings. Maps were developed for three earthquake scenarios, an M7.8 on the San Andreas Fault comparable to the 1906 event, an M6.7 on the Hayward Fault comparable to the 1868 event, and an M6.9 on the Calaveras Fault. Ground motions were estimated with the Boore and Atkinson (2008) attenuation relation. Liquefaction is predicted for all three events in young Holocene levee deposits along the major creeks. Liquefaction probabilities are highest for the M7.8 earthquake, ranging from 0.33 to 0.37 if a 1.5-m deep water table is assumed, and 0.10 to 0.14 if a 5-m deep water table is assumed. Liquefaction probabilities of the other surficial geologic units are less than 0.05. Probabilities for the scenario earthquakes are generally consistent with observations during historical earthquakes.

Optoacoustic mapping of cerebral blood oxygenation in humans

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrov, Yuriy; Prough, Donald S.; Petrov, Irene Y.; Richardson, C. Joan; Fonseca, Rafael A.; Robertson, Claudia S.; Esenaliev, Rinat O.

2017-03-01

Noninvasive, transcranial mapping, monitoring, and imaging are highly important for detection and management of cerebral abnormalities and neuroscience research. Mapping, imaging, and monitoring of cerebral blood oxygenation are necessary for diagnostics and management of patients with traumatic brain injury, stroke, and other neurological conditions. We proposed to use optoacoustic technology for noninvasive, transcranial monitoring and imaging. In this work, we developed optoacoustic systems for mapping of cerebral blood oxygenation in humans and tested them in adults and neonates. The systems provide noninvasive, transcranial optoacoustic measurements in the transmission (forward) and reflection (backward) modes in the near infrared spectral range. Novel, ultra-sensitive probes were built for detection of optoacoustic signals and measurement of blood oxygenation in neonates and adults. Cerebral oxygenation was measured at different lateral sites from the superior sagittal sinus (SSS), a large central cerebral vein, located immediately beneath the midline of the human skull. In neonates, cerebral oxygenation was measured through open anterior and posterior fontanelles. Optoacoustic signal detection at different locations allowed for mapping of cerebral blood oxygenation. Our future studies will be focused on 3D mapping of cerebral blood oxygenation.

Quantified elasticity mapping of ocular tissue using acoustic radiation force optical coherence elastography (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, Yueqiao; He, Youmin; Zhang, Yi; Ma, Teng; Zhu, Jiang; Miao, Yusi; Dai, Cuixia; Silverman, Ronald; Humayun, Mark S.; Zhou, Qifa; Chen, Zhongping

2017-02-01

Age-related macular degeneration and keratoconus are two ocular diseases occurring in the posterior and anterior eye, respectively. In both conditions, the mechanical elasticity of the respective tissues changes during the early onset of disease. It is necessary to detect these differences and treat the diseases in their early stages to provide proper treatment. Acoustic radiation force optical coherence elastography is a method of elasticity mapping using confocal ultrasound waves for excitation and Doppler optical coherence tomography for detection. We report on an ARF-OCE system that uses modulated compression wave based excitation signals, and detects the spatial and frequency responses of the tissue. First, all components of the system is synchronized and triggered such that the signal is consistent between frames. Next, phantom studies are performed to validate and calibrate the relationship between the resonance frequency and the Young's modulus. Then the frequency responses of the anterior and posterior eye are detected for porcine and rabbit eyes, and the results correlated to the elasticity. Finally, spatial elastograms are obtained for a porcine retina. Layer segmentation and analysis is performed and correlated to the histology of the retina, where five distinct layers are recognized. The elasticities of the tissue layers will be quantified according to the mean thickness and displacement response for the locations on the retina. This study is a stepping stone to future in-vivo animal studies, where the elastic modulus of the ocular tissue can be quantified and mapped out accordingly.

An empirical investigation into the role of subjective prior probability in searching for potentially missing items

PubMed Central

Fanshawe, T. R.

2015-01-01

There are many examples from the scientific literature of visual search tasks in which the length, scope and success rate of the search have been shown to vary according to the searcher's expectations of whether the search target is likely to be present. This phenomenon has major practical implications, for instance in cancer screening, when the prevalence of the condition is low and the consequences of a missed disease diagnosis are severe. We consider this problem from an empirical Bayesian perspective to explain how the effect of a low prior probability, subjectively assessed by the searcher, might impact on the extent of the search. We show how the searcher's posterior probability that the target is present depends on the prior probability and the proportion of possible target locations already searched, and also consider the implications of imperfect search, when the probability of false-positive and false-negative decisions is non-zero. The theoretical results are applied to two studies of radiologists' visual assessment of pulmonary lesions on chest radiographs. Further application areas in diagnostic medicine and airport security are also discussed. PMID:26587267

Bisous model-Detecting filamentary patterns in point processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tempel, E.; Stoica, R. S.; Kipper, R.; Saar, E.

2016-07-01

The cosmic web is a highly complex geometrical pattern, with galaxy clusters at the intersection of filaments and filaments at the intersection of walls. Identifying and describing the filamentary network is not a trivial task due to the overwhelming complexity of the structure, its connectivity and the intrinsic hierarchical nature. To detect and quantify galactic filaments we use the Bisous model, which is a marked point process built to model multi-dimensional patterns. The Bisous filament finder works directly with the galaxy distribution data and the model intrinsically takes into account the connectivity of the filamentary network. The Bisous model generates the visit map (the probability to find a filament at a given point) together with the filament orientation field. Using these two fields, we can extract filament spines from the data. Together with this paper we publish the computer code for the Bisous model that is made available in GitHub. The Bisous filament finder has been successfully used in several cosmological applications and further development of the model will allow to detect the filamentary network also in photometric redshift surveys, using the full redshift posterior. We also want to encourage the astro-statistical community to use the model and to connect it with all other existing methods for filamentary pattern detection and characterisation.

Calculating Higher-Order Moments of Phylogenetic Stochastic Mapping Summaries in Linear Time.

PubMed

Dhar, Amrit; Minin, Vladimir N

2017-05-01

Stochastic mapping is a simulation-based method for probabilistically mapping substitution histories onto phylogenies according to continuous-time Markov models of evolution. This technique can be used to infer properties of the evolutionary process on the phylogeny and, unlike parsimony-based mapping, conditions on the observed data to randomly draw substitution mappings that do not necessarily require the minimum number of events on a tree. Most stochastic mapping applications simulate substitution mappings only to estimate the mean and/or variance of two commonly used mapping summaries: the number of particular types of substitutions (labeled substitution counts) and the time spent in a particular group of states (labeled dwelling times) on the tree. Fast, simulation-free algorithms for calculating the mean of stochastic mapping summaries exist. Importantly, these algorithms scale linearly in the number of tips/leaves of the phylogenetic tree. However, to our knowledge, no such algorithm exists for calculating higher-order moments of stochastic mapping summaries. We present one such simulation-free dynamic programming algorithm that calculates prior and posterior mapping variances and scales linearly in the number of phylogeny tips. Our procedure suggests a general framework that can be used to efficiently compute higher-order moments of stochastic mapping summaries without simulations. We demonstrate the usefulness of our algorithm by extending previously developed statistical tests for rate variation across sites and for detecting evolutionarily conserved regions in genomic sequences.

Calculating Higher-Order Moments of Phylogenetic Stochastic Mapping Summaries in Linear Time

PubMed Central

Dhar, Amrit

2017-01-01

Abstract Stochastic mapping is a simulation-based method for probabilistically mapping substitution histories onto phylogenies according to continuous-time Markov models of evolution. This technique can be used to infer properties of the evolutionary process on the phylogeny and, unlike parsimony-based mapping, conditions on the observed data to randomly draw substitution mappings that do not necessarily require the minimum number of events on a tree. Most stochastic mapping applications simulate substitution mappings only to estimate the mean and/or variance of two commonly used mapping summaries: the number of particular types of substitutions (labeled substitution counts) and the time spent in a particular group of states (labeled dwelling times) on the tree. Fast, simulation-free algorithms for calculating the mean of stochastic mapping summaries exist. Importantly, these algorithms scale linearly in the number of tips/leaves of the phylogenetic tree. However, to our knowledge, no such algorithm exists for calculating higher-order moments of stochastic mapping summaries. We present one such simulation-free dynamic programming algorithm that calculates prior and posterior mapping variances and scales linearly in the number of phylogeny tips. Our procedure suggests a general framework that can be used to efficiently compute higher-order moments of stochastic mapping summaries without simulations. We demonstrate the usefulness of our algorithm by extending previously developed statistical tests for rate variation across sites and for detecting evolutionarily conserved regions in genomic sequences. PMID:28177780

Taxonomic classification of world map units in crop producing areas of Argentina and Brazil with representative US soil series and major land resource areas in which they occur

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huckle, H. F. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The most probable current U.S. taxonomic classification of the soils estimated to dominate world soil map units (WSM)) in selected crop producing states of Argentina and Brazil are presented. Representative U.S. soil series the units are given. The map units occurring in each state are listed with areal extent and major U.S. land resource areas in which similar soils most probably occur. Soil series sampled in LARS Technical Report 111579 and major land resource areas in which they occur with corresponding similar WSM units at the taxonomic subgroup levels are given.

On Voxel based Iso-Tumor Control Probabilty and Iso-Complication Maps for Selective Boosting and Selective Avoidance Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy.

PubMed

Kim, Yusung; Tomé, Wolfgang A

2008-01-01

Voxel based iso-Tumor Control Probability (TCP) maps and iso-Complication maps are proposed as a plan-review tool especially for functional image-guided intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) strategies such as selective boosting (dose painting) and conformal avoidance IMRT. The maps employ voxel-based phenomenological biological dose-response models for target volumes and normal organs. Two IMRT strategies for prostate cancer, namely conventional uniform IMRT delivering an EUD = 84 Gy (equivalent uniform dose) to the entire PTV and selective boosting delivering an EUD = 82 Gy to the entire PTV, are investigated, to illustrate the advantages of this approach over iso-dose maps. Conventional uniform IMRT did yield a more uniform isodose map to the entire PTV while selective boosting did result in a nonuniform isodose map. However, when employing voxel based iso-TCP maps selective boosting exhibited a more uniform tumor control probability map compared to what could be achieved using conventional uniform IMRT, which showed TCP cold spots in high-risk tumor subvolumes despite delivering a higher EUD to the entire PTV. Voxel based iso-Complication maps are presented for rectum and bladder, and their utilization for selective avoidance IMRT strategies are discussed. We believe as the need for functional image guided treatment planning grows, voxel based iso-TCP and iso-Complication maps will become an important tool to assess the integrity of such treatment plans.

Comparing the Performance of Japan's Earthquake Hazard Maps to Uniform and Randomized Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brooks, E. M.; Stein, S. A.; Spencer, B. D.

2015-12-01

The devastating 2011 magnitude 9.1 Tohoku earthquake and the resulting shaking and tsunami were much larger than anticipated in earthquake hazard maps. Because this and all other earthquakes that caused ten or more fatalities in Japan since 1979 occurred in places assigned a relatively low hazard, Geller (2011) argued that "all of Japan is at risk from earthquakes, and the present state of seismological science does not allow us to reliably differentiate the risk level in particular geographic areas," so a map showing uniform hazard would be preferable to the existing map. Defenders of the maps countered by arguing that these earthquakes are low-probability events allowed by the maps, which predict the levels of shaking that should expected with a certain probability over a given time. Although such maps are used worldwide in making costly policy decisions for earthquake-resistant construction, how well these maps actually perform is unknown. We explore this hotly-contested issue by comparing how well a 510-year-long record of earthquake shaking in Japan is described by the Japanese national hazard (JNH) maps, uniform maps, and randomized maps. Surprisingly, as measured by the metric implicit in the JNH maps, i.e. that during the chosen time interval the predicted ground motion should be exceeded only at a specific fraction of the sites, both uniform and randomized maps do better than the actual maps. However, using as a metric the squared misfit between maximum observed shaking and that predicted, the JNH maps do better than uniform or randomized maps. These results indicate that the JNH maps are not performing as well as expected, that what factors control map performance is complicated, and that learning more about how maps perform and why would be valuable in making more effective policy.

Multiple Neural Mechanisms of Decision Making and Their Competition under Changing Risk Pressure

PubMed Central

Kolling, Nils; Wittmann, Marco; Rushworth, Matthew F.S.

2014-01-01

Summary Sometimes when a choice is made, the outcome is not guaranteed and there is only a probability of its occurrence. Each individual’s attitude to probability, sometimes called risk proneness or aversion, has been assumed to be static. Behavioral ecological studies, however, suggest such attitudes are dynamically modulated by the context an organism finds itself in; in some cases, it may be optimal to pursue actions with a low probability of success but which are associated with potentially large gains. We show that human subjects rapidly adapt their use of probability as a function of current resources, goals, and opportunities for further foraging. We demonstrate that dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) carries signals indexing the pressure to pursue unlikely choices and signals related to the taking of such choices. We show that dACC exerts this control over behavior when it, rather than ventromedial prefrontal cortex, interacts with posterior cingulate cortex. PMID:24607236

Linking big models to big data: efficient ecosystem model calibration through Bayesian model emulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fer, I.; Kelly, R.; Andrews, T.; Dietze, M.; Richardson, A. D.

2016-12-01

Our ability to forecast ecosystems is limited by how well we parameterize ecosystem models. Direct measurements for all model parameters are not always possible and inverse estimation of these parameters through Bayesian methods is computationally costly. A solution to computational challenges of Bayesian calibration is to approximate the posterior probability surface using a Gaussian Process that emulates the complex process-based model. Here we report the integration of this method within an ecoinformatics toolbox, Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), and its application with two ecosystem models: SIPNET and ED2.1. SIPNET is a simple model, allowing application of MCMC methods both to the model itself and to its emulator. We used both approaches to assimilate flux (CO2 and latent heat), soil respiration, and soil carbon data from Bartlett Experimental Forest. This comparison showed that emulator is reliable in terms of convergence to the posterior distribution. A 10000-iteration MCMC analysis with SIPNET itself required more than two orders of magnitude greater computation time than an MCMC run of same length with its emulator. This difference would be greater for a more computationally demanding model. Validation of the emulator-calibrated SIPNET against both the assimilated data and out-of-sample data showed improved fit and reduced uncertainty around model predictions. We next applied the validated emulator method to the ED2, whose complexity precludes standard Bayesian data assimilation. We used the ED2 emulator to assimilate demographic data from a network of inventory plots. For validation of the calibrated ED2, we compared the model to results from Empirical Succession Mapping (ESM), a novel synthesis of successional patterns in Forest Inventory and Analysis data. Our results revealed that while the pre-assimilation ED2 formulation cannot capture the emergent demographic patterns from ESM analysis, constrained model parameters controlling demographic processes increased their agreement considerably.

SOMBI: Bayesian identification of parameter relations in unstructured cosmological data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frank, Philipp; Jasche, Jens; Enßlin, Torsten A.

2016-11-01

This work describes the implementation and application of a correlation determination method based on self organizing maps and Bayesian inference (SOMBI). SOMBI aims to automatically identify relations between different observed parameters in unstructured cosmological or astrophysical surveys by automatically identifying data clusters in high-dimensional datasets via the self organizing map neural network algorithm. Parameter relations are then revealed by means of a Bayesian inference within respective identified data clusters. Specifically such relations are assumed to be parametrized as a polynomial of unknown order. The Bayesian approach results in a posterior probability distribution function for respective polynomial coefficients. To decide which polynomial order suffices to describe correlation structures in data, we include a method for model selection, the Bayesian information criterion, to the analysis. The performance of the SOMBI algorithm is tested with mock data. As illustration we also provide applications of our method to cosmological data. In particular, we present results of a correlation analysis between galaxy and active galactic nucleus (AGN) properties provided by the SDSS catalog with the cosmic large-scale-structure (LSS). The results indicate that the combined galaxy and LSS dataset indeed is clustered into several sub-samples of data with different average properties (for example different stellar masses or web-type classifications). The majority of data clusters appear to have a similar correlation structure between galaxy properties and the LSS. In particular we revealed a positive and linear dependency between the stellar mass, the absolute magnitude and the color of a galaxy with the corresponding cosmic density field. A remaining subset of data shows inverted correlations, which might be an artifact of non-linear redshift distortions.

Anatomic Tumor Location Influences the Success of Contemporary Limb-Sparing Surgery and Radiation Among Adults With Soft Tissue Sarcomas of the Extremities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Korah, Mariam P., E-mail: mariam.philip@gmail.com; Deyrup, Andrea T.; Monson, David K.

2012-02-01

Purpose: To examine the influence of anatomic location in the upper extremity (UE) vs. lower extremity (LE) on the presentation and outcomes of adult soft tissue sarcomas (STS). Methods and Materials: From 2001 to 2008, 118 patients underwent limb-sparing surgery (LSS) and external beam radiotherapy (RT) with curative intent for nonrecurrent extremity STS. RT was delivered preoperatively in 96 and postoperatively in 22 patients. Lesions arose in the UE in 28 and in the LE in 90 patients. Patients with UE lesions had smaller tumors (4.5 vs. 9.0 cm, p < 0.01), were more likely to undergo a prior excisionmore » (43 vs. 22%, p = 0.03), to have close or positive margins after resection (71 vs. 49%, p = 0.04), and to undergo postoperative RT (32 vs. 14%, p = 0.04). Results: Five-year actuarial local recurrence-free and distant metastasis-free survival rates for the entire group were 85 and 74%, with no difference observed between the UE and LE cohorts. Five-year actuarial probability of wound reoperation rates were 4 vs. 29% (p < 0.01) in the UE and LE respectively. Thigh lesions accounted for 84% of the required wound reoperations. The distribution of tumors within the anterior, medial, and posterior thigh compartments was 51%, 26%, and 23%. Subset analysis by compartment showed no difference in the probability of wound reoperation between the anterior and medial/posterior compartments (29 vs. 30%, p = 0.68). Neurolysis was performed during resection in (15%, 5%, and 67%, p < 0.01) of tumors in the anterior, medial, and posterior compartments. Conclusions: Tumors in the UE and LE differ significantly with respect to size and management details. The anatomy of the UE poses technical impediments to an R0 resection. Thigh tumors are associated with higher wound reoperation rates. Tumor resection in the posterior thigh compartment is more likely to result in nerve injury. A better understanding of the inherent differences between tumors in various extremity sites will assist in individualizing treatment.« less

[A case of migraine presenting with thunderclap headache associated with posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome].

PubMed

Katoh, Hirotaka; Saito, Yu; Ohwan, Yoshiyuki; Kasai, Hideyo; Fujita, Kazuhisa; Kawamura, Mitsuru

2014-10-01

We report a 47-year-old woman who developed a thunderclap headache. Head axial, fluid-attenuated inversion recovery magnetic resonance imaging (FLAIR MRI) revealed high signal lesions in the left occipital and right parietal lobes. Apparent diffusion coefficient mapping showed a vasogenic edema pattern. Upon admission, the patient's blood pressure was normal and the neurological examination was unremarkable. As thunderclap headaches are associated with a repeated rise in blood pressure, we considered cerebral vasoconstriction and administered a calcium channel blocker. Thereafter, her headache with high blood pressure eased significantly and the high signal lesions on FLAIR MRI disappeared. We diagnosed the condition as posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES). In addition, head magnetic resonance angiogram showed vasoconstriction of the right anterior cerebral artery, left middle cerebral artery, and bilateral posterior cerebral artery. Calcium channel blocker use was continued and vasoconstriction improved by day 70. In this case, the presenting symptom was thunderclap headache, which is a characteristic feature of reversible cerebral vasoconstriction syndrome (RCVS). Therefore, PRES may be caused by RCVS.

Impact sites representing potential bruising locations associated with rearward falls in children.

PubMed

Dsouza, Raymond; Bertocci, Gina

2016-04-01

Children presenting multiple unexplained bruises can be an early sign of physical abuse. Bruising locations on the body can be an effective indicator of abusive versus accidental trauma. Additionally, childhood falls are often used as falsely reported events in child abuse, however, characterization of potential bruising locations associated with these falls does not exist. In our study we used a 12-month old pediatric anthropomorphic test device (ATD) adapted with a custom developed force sensing skin to predict potential bruising locations during rearward falls from standing. The surrogate bruising detection system measured and displayed recorded force data on a computerized body image mapping system when sensors were activated. Simulated rearward fall experiments were performed onto two different impact surfaces (padded carpet and linoleum tile over concrete) with two different initial positions (standing upright and posteriorly inclined) so that the ATD would fall rearward upon release. Findings indicated impact locations, and thus the potential for bruising in the posterior plane primarily within the occipital head and posterior torso regions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Myopic Macular Retinoschisis in Teenagers: Clinical Characteristics and Spectral Domain Optical Coherence Tomography Findings

PubMed Central

Sun, Chuan-bin; You, Yong-sheng; Liu, Zhe; Zheng, Lin-yan; Chen, Pei-qing; Yao, Ke; Xue, An-quan

2016-01-01

To investigate the morphological characteristics of myopic macular retinoschisis (MRS) in teenagers with high myopia, six male (9 eyes) and 3 female (4 eyes) teenagers with typical MRS identified from chart review were evaluated. All cases underwent complete ophthalmic examinations including best corrected visual acuity (BCVA), indirect ophthalmoscopy, colour fundus photography, B-type ultrasonography, axial length measurement, and spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). The average age was 17.8 ± 1.5 years, average refractive error was −17.04 ± 3.04D, average BCVA was 0.43 ± 0.61, and average axial length was 30.42 ± 1.71 mm. Myopic macular degenerative changes (MDC) by colour fundus photographs revealed Ohno-Matsui Category 1 in 4 eyes, and Category 2 in 9 eyes. Posterior staphyloma was found in 9 eyes. SD-OCT showed outer MRS in all 13 eyes, internal limiting membrane detachment in 7 eyes, vascular microfolds in 2 eyes, and inner MRS in 1 eye. No premacular structures such as macular epiretinal membrane or partially detached posterior hyaloids were found. Our results showed that MRS rarely occurred in highly myopic teenagers, and was not accompanied by premacular structures, severe MDC, or even obvious posterior staphyloma. This finding indicates that posterior scleral expansion is probably the main cause of MRS. PMID:27294332

Will it Blend? Visualization and Accuracy Evaluation of High-Resolution Fuzzy Vegetation Maps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zlinszky, A.; Kania, A.

2016-06-01

Instead of assigning every map pixel to a single class, fuzzy classification includes information on the class assigned to each pixel but also the certainty of this class and the alternative possible classes based on fuzzy set theory. The advantages of fuzzy classification for vegetation mapping are well recognized, but the accuracy and uncertainty of fuzzy maps cannot be directly quantified with indices developed for hard-boundary categorizations. The rich information in such a map is impossible to convey with a single map product or accuracy figure. Here we introduce a suite of evaluation indices and visualization products for fuzzy maps generated with ensemble classifiers. We also propose a way of evaluating classwise prediction certainty with "dominance profiles" visualizing the number of pixels in bins according to the probability of the dominant class, also showing the probability of all the other classes. Together, these data products allow a quantitative understanding of the rich information in a fuzzy raster map both for individual classes and in terms of variability in space, and also establish the connection between spatially explicit class certainty and traditional accuracy metrics. These map products are directly comparable to widely used hard boundary evaluation procedures, support active learning-based iterative classification and can be applied for operational use.

Abnormalities of fixation, saccade and pursuit in posterior cortical atrophy.

PubMed

Shakespeare, Timothy J; Kaski, Diego; Yong, Keir X X; Paterson, Ross W; Slattery, Catherine F; Ryan, Natalie S; Schott, Jonathan M; Crutch, Sebastian J

2015-07-01

The clinico-neuroradiological syndrome posterior cortical atrophy is the cardinal 'visual dementia' and most common atypical Alzheimer's disease phenotype, offering insights into mechanisms underlying clinical heterogeneity, pathological propagation and basic visual phenomena (e.g. visual crowding). Given the extensive attention paid to patients' (higher order) perceptual function, it is surprising that there have been no systematic analyses of basic oculomotor function in this population. Here 20 patients with posterior cortical atrophy, 17 patients with typical Alzheimer's disease and 22 healthy controls completed tests of fixation, saccade (including fixation/target gap and overlap conditions) and smooth pursuit eye movements using an infrared pupil-tracking system. Participants underwent detailed neuropsychological and neurological examinations, with a proportion also undertaking brain imaging and analysis of molecular pathology. In contrast to informal clinical evaluations of oculomotor dysfunction frequency (previous studies: 38%, current clinical examination: 33%), detailed eyetracking investigations revealed eye movement abnormalities in 80% of patients with posterior cortical atrophy (compared to 17% typical Alzheimer's disease, 5% controls). The greatest differences between posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer's disease were seen in saccadic performance. Patients with posterior cortical atrophy made significantly shorter saccades especially for distant targets. They also exhibited a significant exacerbation of the normal gap/overlap effect, consistent with 'sticky fixation'. Time to reach saccadic targets was significantly associated with parietal and occipital cortical thickness measures. On fixation stability tasks, patients with typical Alzheimer's disease showed more square wave jerks whose frequency was associated with lower cerebellar grey matter volume, while patients with posterior cortical atrophy showed large saccadic intrusions whose frequency correlated significantly with generalized reductions in cortical thickness. Patients with both posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer's disease showed lower gain in smooth pursuit compared to controls. The current study establishes that eye movement abnormalities are near-ubiquitous in posterior cortical atrophy, and highlights multiple aspects of saccadic performance which distinguish posterior cortical atrophy from typical Alzheimer's disease. We suggest the posterior cortical atrophy oculomotor profile (e.g. exacerbation of the saccadic gap/overlap effect, preserved saccadic velocity) reflects weak input from degraded occipito-parietal spatial representations of stimulus location into a superior collicular spatial map for eye movement regulation. This may indicate greater impairment of identification of oculomotor targets rather than generation of oculomotor movements. The results highlight the critical role of spatial attention and object identification but also precise stimulus localization in explaining the complex real world perception deficits observed in posterior cortical atrophy and many other patients with dementia-related visual impairment. © The Author (2015). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain.

Random Partition Distribution Indexed by Pairwise Information

PubMed Central

Dahl, David B.; Day, Ryan; Tsai, Jerry W.

2017-01-01

We propose a random partition distribution indexed by pairwise similarity information such that partitions compatible with the similarities are given more probability. The use of pairwise similarities, in the form of distances, is common in some clustering algorithms (e.g., hierarchical clustering), but we show how to use this type of information to define a prior partition distribution for flexible Bayesian modeling. A defining feature of the distribution is that it allocates probability among partitions within a given number of subsets, but it does not shift probability among sets of partitions with different numbers of subsets. Our distribution places more probability on partitions that group similar items yet keeps the total probability of partitions with a given number of subsets constant. The distribution of the number of subsets (and its moments) is available in closed-form and is not a function of the similarities. Our formulation has an explicit probability mass function (with a tractable normalizing constant) so the full suite of MCMC methods may be used for posterior inference. We compare our distribution with several existing partition distributions, showing that our formulation has attractive properties. We provide three demonstrations to highlight the features and relative performance of our distribution. PMID:29276318

Generalized Maximum Entropy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cheeseman, Peter; Stutz, John

2005-01-01

A long standing mystery in using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is how to deal with constraints whose values are uncertain. This situation arises when constraint values are estimated from data, because of finite sample sizes. One approach to this problem, advocated by E.T. Jaynes [1], is to ignore this uncertainty, and treat the empirically observed values as exact. We refer to this as the classic MaxEnt approach. Classic MaxEnt gives point probabilities (subject to the given constraints), rather than probability densities. We develop an alternative approach that assumes that the uncertain constraint values are represented by a probability density {e.g: a Gaussian), and this uncertainty yields a MaxEnt posterior probability density. That is, the classic MaxEnt point probabilities are regarded as a multidimensional function of the given constraint values, and uncertainty on these values is transmitted through the MaxEnt function to give uncertainty over the MaXEnt probabilities. We illustrate this approach by explicitly calculating the generalized MaxEnt density for a simple but common case, then show how this can be extended numerically to the general case. This paper expands the generalized MaxEnt concept introduced in a previous paper [3].

Probabilistic assessment of precipitation-triggered landslides using historical records of landslide occurence, Seattle, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coe, J.A.; Michael, J.A.; Crovelli, R.A.; Savage, W.Z.; Laprade, W.T.; Nashem, W.D.

2004-01-01

Ninety years of historical landslide records were used as input to the Poisson and binomial probability models. Results from these models show that, for precipitation-triggered landslides, approximately 9 percent of the area of Seattle has annual exceedance probabilities of 1 percent or greater. Application of the Poisson model for estimating the future occurrence of individual landslides results in a worst-case scenario map, with a maximum annual exceedance probability of 25 percent on a hillslope near Duwamish Head in West Seattle. Application of the binomial model for estimating the future occurrence of a year with one or more landslides results in a map with a maximum annual exceedance probability of 17 percent (also near Duwamish Head). Slope and geology both play a role in localizing the occurrence of landslides in Seattle. A positive correlation exists between slope and mean exceedance probability, with probability tending to increase as slope increases. Sixty-four percent of all historical landslide locations are within 150 m (500 ft, horizontal distance) of the Esperance Sand/Lawton Clay contact, but within this zone, no positive or negative correlation exists between exceedance probability and distance to the contact.

Not one extrastriate body area: Using anatomical landmarks, hMT+, and visual field maps to parcellate limb-selective activations in human lateral occipitotemporal cortex

PubMed Central

Weiner, Kevin S.; Grill-Spector, Kalanit

2011-01-01

The prevailing view of human lateral occipitotemporal cortex (LOTC) organization suggests a single area selective for images of the human body (extrastriate body area, EBA) that highly overlaps with the human motion-selective complex (hMT+). Using functional magnetic resonance imaging with higher resolution (1.5mm voxels) than past studies (3–4mm voxels), we examined the fine-scale spatial organization of these activations relative to each other, as well as to visual field maps in LOTC. Rather than one contiguous EBA highly overlapping hMT+, results indicate three limb-selective activations organized in a crescent surrounding hMT+: (1) an activation posterior to hMT+ on the lateral occipital sulcus/middle occipital gyrus (LOS/MOG) overlapping the lower vertical meridian shared between visual field maps LO-2 and TO-1, (2) an activation anterior to hMT+ on the middle temporal gyrus (MTG) consistently overlapping the lower vertical meridian of TO-2 and extending outside presently defined visual field maps, and (3) an activation inferior to hMT+ on the inferotemporal gyrus (ITG) overlapping the parafoveal representation of the TO cluster. This crescent organization of limb-selective activations surrounding hMT+ is reproducible over a span of three years and is consistent across different image types used for localization. Further, these regions exhibit differential position properties: preference for contralateral image presentation decreases and preference for foveal presentation increases from the limb-selective LOS to the MTG. Finally, the relationship between limb-selective activations and visual field maps extends to the dorsal stream where a posterior IPS activation overlaps V7. Overall, our measurements demonstrate a series of LOTC limb-selective activations that 1) have separate anatomical and functional boundaries, 2) overlap distinct visual field maps, and 3) illustrate differential position properties. These findings indicate that category selectivity alone is an insufficient organization principle for defining brain areas. Instead, multiple properties are necessary in order to parcellate and understand the functional organization of high-level visual cortex. PMID:21439386

Application of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method for snow water equivalent retrieval based on passive microwave measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pan, J.; Durand, M. T.; Vanderjagt, B. J.

2015-12-01

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is a retrieval algorithm based on Bayes' rule, which starts from an initial state of snow/soil parameters, and updates it to a series of new states by comparing the posterior probability of simulated snow microwave signals before and after each time of random walk. It is a realization of the Bayes' rule, which gives an approximation to the probability of the snow/soil parameters in condition of the measured microwave TB signals at different bands. Although this method could solve all snow parameters including depth, density, snow grain size and temperature at the same time, it still needs prior information of these parameters for posterior probability calculation. How the priors will influence the SWE retrieval is a big concern. Therefore, in this paper at first, a sensitivity test will be carried out to study how accurate the snow emission models and how explicit the snow priors need to be to maintain the SWE error within certain amount. The synthetic TB simulated from the measured snow properties plus a 2-K observation error will be used for this purpose. It aims to provide a guidance on the MCMC application under different circumstances. Later, the method will be used for the snowpits at different sites, including Sodankyla, Finland, Churchill, Canada and Colorado, USA, using the measured TB from ground-based radiometers at different bands. Based on the previous work, the error in these practical cases will be studied, and the error sources will be separated and quantified.

Multi-Agent Cooperative Target Search

PubMed Central

Hu, Jinwen; Xie, Lihua; Xu, Jun; Xu, Zhao

2014-01-01

This paper addresses a vision-based cooperative search for multiple mobile ground targets by a group of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) with limited sensing and communication capabilities. The airborne camera on each UAV has a limited field of view and its target discriminability varies as a function of altitude. First, by dividing the whole surveillance region into cells, a probability map can be formed for each UAV indicating the probability of target existence within each cell. Then, we propose a distributed probability map updating model which includes the fusion of measurement information, information sharing among neighboring agents, information decay and transmission due to environmental changes such as the target movement. Furthermore, we formulate the target search problem as a multi-agent cooperative coverage control problem by optimizing the collective coverage area and the detection performance. The proposed map updating model and the cooperative control scheme are distributed, i.e., assuming that each agent only communicates with its neighbors within its communication range. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms is illustrated by simulation. PMID:24865884

Probing the statistics of transport in the Hénon Map

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alus, O.; Fishman, S.; Meiss, J. D.

2016-09-01

The phase space of an area-preserving map typically contains infinitely many elliptic islands embedded in a chaotic sea. Orbits near the boundary of a chaotic region have been observed to stick for long times, strongly influencing their transport properties. The boundary is composed of invariant "boundary circles." We briefly report recent results of the distribution of rotation numbers of boundary circles for the Hénon quadratic map and show that the probability of occurrence of small integer entries of their continued fraction expansions is larger than would be expected for a number chosen at random. However, large integer entries occur with probabilities distributed proportionally to the random case. The probability distributions of ratios of fluxes through island chains is reported as well. These island chains are neighbours in the sense of the Meiss-Ott Markov-tree model. Two distinct universality families are found. The distributions of the ratio between the flux and orbital period are also presented. All of these results have implications for models of transport in mixed phase space.

Dissociating hippocampal and basal ganglia contributions to category learning using stimulus novelty and subjective judgments

PubMed Central

Seger, Carol A.; Dennison, Christina S.; Lopez-Paniagua, Dan; Peterson, Erik J.; Roark, Aubrey A.

2011-01-01

We identified factors leading to hippocampal and basal ganglia recruitment during categorization learning. Subjects alternated between blocks of a standard trial and error category learning task and a subjective judgment task. In the subjective judgments task subjects categorized the stimulus and then instead of receiving feedback they indicated the basis of their response using 4 options: Remember: Conscious episodic memory of previous trials. Know-Automatic: Automatic, rapid response accompanied by conscious awareness of category membership. Know-Intuition: A “gut feeling” without fully conscious knowledge of category membership. Guess: Guessing. In addition, new stimuli were introduced throughout the experiment to examine effects of novelty. Categorization overall recruited both the basal ganglia and posterior hippocampus. However, basal ganglia activity was found during Know judgments (both Automatic and Intuition), whereas posterior hippocampus activity was found during Remember judgments. Granger causality mapping indicated interactions between the basal ganglia and hippocampus, with the putamen exerting directed influence on the posterior hippocampus, which in turn exerted directed influence on the posterior caudate nucleus. We also found a region of anterior hippocampus that showed decreased activity relative to baseline during categorization overall, and showed a strong novelty effect. Our results indicate that subjective measures may be effective in dissociating basal ganglia from hippocampal dependent learning, and that the basal ganglia are involved in both conscious and unconscious learning. They also indicate a dissociation within the hippocampus, in which the anterior regions are sensitive to novelty, and the posterior regions are involved in memory based categorization learning. PMID:21255655

Evidence for an anterior-posterior differentiation in the human hippocampal formation revealed by meta-analytic parcellation of fMRI coordinate maps: focus on the subiculum.

PubMed

Chase, Henry W; Clos, Mareike; Dibble, Sofia; Fox, Peter; Grace, Anthony A; Phillips, Mary L; Eickhoff, Simon B

2015-06-01

Previous studies, predominantly in experimental animals, have suggested the presence of a differentiation of function across the hippocampal formation. In rodents, ventral regions are thought to be involved in emotional behavior while dorsal regions mediate cognitive or spatial processes. Using a combination of modeling the co-occurrence of significant activations across thousands of neuroimaging experiments and subsequent data-driven clustering of these data we were able to provide evidence of distinct subregions within a region corresponding to the human subiculum, a critical hub within the hippocampal formation. This connectivity-based model consists of a bilateral anterior region, as well as separate posterior and intermediate regions on each hemisphere. Functional connectivity assessed both by meta-analytic and resting fMRI approaches revealed that more anterior regions were more strongly connected to the default mode network, and more posterior regions were more strongly connected to 'task positive' regions. In addition, our analysis revealed that the anterior subregion was functionally connected to the ventral striatum, midbrain and amygdala, a circuit that is central to models of stress and motivated behavior. Analysis of a behavioral taxonomy provided evidence for a role for each subregion in mnemonic processing, as well as implication of the anterior subregion in emotional and visual processing and the right posterior subregion in reward processing. These findings lend support to models which posit anterior-posterior differentiation of function within the human hippocampal formation and complement other early steps toward a comparative (cross-species) model of the region. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation in the St. Louis River estuary: Maps and models

EPA Science Inventory

In late summer of 2011 and 2012 we used echo-sounding gear to map the distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) in the St. Louis River Estuary (SLRE). From these data we produced maps of SAV distribution and we created logistic models to predict the probability of occurr...

Models for loosely linked gene duplicates suggest lengthy persistence of both copies.

PubMed

O'Hely, Martin; Wockner, Leesa

2007-06-21

Consider the appearance of a duplicate copy of a gene at a locus linked loosely, if at all, to the locus at which the gene is usually found. If all copies of the gene are subject to non-functionalizing mutations, then two fates are possible: loss of functional copies at the duplicate locus (loss of duplicate expression), or loss of functional copies at the original locus (map change). This paper proposes a simple model to address the probability of map change, the time taken for a map change and/or loss of duplicate expression, and considers where in the spectrum between loss of duplicate expression and map change such a duplicate complex is likely to be found. The findings are: the probability of map change is always half the reciprocal of the population size N, the time for a map change to occur is order NlogN generations, and that there is a marked tendency for duplicates to remain near equi-frequency with the gene at the original locus for a large portion of that time. This is in excellent agreement with simulations.

Vehicle Detection for RCTA/ANS (Autonomous Navigation System)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brennan, Shane; Bajracharya, Max; Matthies, Larry H.; Howard, Andrew B.

2012-01-01

Using a stereo camera pair, imagery is acquired and processed through the JPLV stereo processing pipeline. From this stereo data, large 3D blobs are found. These blobs are then described and classified by their shape to determine which are vehicles and which are not. Prior vehicle detection algorithms are either targeted to specific domains, such as following lead cars, or are intensity- based methods that involve learning typical vehicle appearances from a large corpus of training data. In order to detect vehicles, the JPL Vehicle Detection (JVD) algorithm goes through the following steps: 1. Take as input a left disparity image and left rectified image from JPLV stereo. 2. Project the disparity data onto a two-dimensional Cartesian map. 3. Perform some post-processing of the map built in the previous step in order to clean it up. 4. Take the processed map and find peaks. For each peak, grow it out into a map blob. These map blobs represent large, roughly vehicle-sized objects in the scene. 5. Take these map blobs and reject those that do not meet certain criteria. Build descriptors for the ones that remain. Pass these descriptors onto a classifier, which determines if the blob is a vehicle or not. The probability of detection is the probability that if a vehicle is present in the image, is visible, and un-occluded, then it will be detected by the JVD algorithm. In order to estimate this probability, eight sequences were ground-truthed from the RCTA (Robotics Collaborative Technology Alliances) program, totaling over 4,000 frames with 15 unique vehicles. Since these vehicles were observed at varying ranges, one is able to find the probability of detection as a function of range. At the time of this reporting, the JVD algorithm was tuned to perform best at cars seen from the front, rear, or either side, and perform poorly on vehicles seen from oblique angles.

A tool for the estimation of the distribution of landslide area in R

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rossi, M.; Cardinali, M.; Fiorucci, F.; Marchesini, I.; Mondini, A. C.; Santangelo, M.; Ghosh, S.; Riguer, D. E. L.; Lahousse, T.; Chang, K. T.; Guzzetti, F.

2012-04-01

We have developed a tool in R (the free software environment for statistical computing, http://www.r-project.org/) to estimate the probability density and the frequency density of landslide area. The tool implements parametric and non-parametric approaches to the estimation of the probability density and the frequency density of landslide area, including: (i) Histogram Density Estimation (HDE), (ii) Kernel Density Estimation (KDE), and (iii) Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). The tool is available as a standard Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) Web Processing Service (WPS), and is accessible through the web using different GIS software clients. We tested the tool to compare Double Pareto and Inverse Gamma models for the probability density of landslide area in different geological, morphological and climatological settings, and to compare landslides shown in inventory maps prepared using different mapping techniques, including (i) field mapping, (ii) visual interpretation of monoscopic and stereoscopic aerial photographs, (iii) visual interpretation of monoscopic and stereoscopic VHR satellite images and (iv) semi-automatic detection and mapping from VHR satellite images. Results show that both models are applicable in different geomorphological settings. In most cases the two models provided very similar results. Non-parametric estimation methods (i.e., HDE and KDE) provided reasonable results for all the tested landslide datasets. For some of the datasets, MLE failed to provide a result, for convergence problems. The two tested models (Double Pareto and Inverse Gamma) resulted in very similar results for large and very large datasets (> 150 samples). Differences in the modeling results were observed for small datasets affected by systematic biases. A distinct rollover was observed in all analyzed landslide datasets, except for a few datasets obtained from landslide inventories prepared through field mapping or by semi-automatic mapping from VHR satellite imagery. The tool can also be used to evaluate the probability density and the frequency density of landslide volume.

Percutaneous left atrial appendage closure vs warfarin for atrial fibrillation: a randomized clinical trial.

PubMed

Reddy, Vivek Y; Sievert, Horst; Halperin, Jonathan; Doshi, Shephal K; Buchbinder, Maurice; Neuzil, Petr; Huber, Kenneth; Whisenant, Brian; Kar, Saibal; Swarup, Vijay; Gordon, Nicole; Holmes, David

2014-11-19

While effective in preventing stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF), warfarin is limited by a narrow therapeutic profile, a need for lifelong coagulation monitoring, and multiple drug and diet interactions. To determine whether a local strategy of mechanical left atrial appendage (LAA) closure was noninferior to warfarin. PROTECT AF was a multicenter, randomized (2:1), unblinded, Bayesian-designed study conducted at 59 hospitals of 707 patients with nonvalvular AF and at least 1 additional stroke risk factor (CHADS2 score ≥1). Enrollment occurred between February 2005 and June 2008 and included 4-year follow-up through October 2012. Noninferiority required a posterior probability greater than 97.5% and superiority a probability of 95% or greater; the noninferiority margin was a rate ratio of 2.0 comparing event rates between treatment groups. Left atrial appendage closure with the device (n = 463) or warfarin (n = 244; target international normalized ratio, 2-3). A composite efficacy end point including stroke, systemic embolism, and cardiovascular/unexplained death, analyzed by intention-to-treat. At a mean (SD) follow-up of 3.8 (1.7) years (2621 patient-years), there were 39 events among 463 patients (8.4%) in the device group for a primary event rate of 2.3 events per 100 patient-years, compared with 34 events among 244 patients (13.9%) for a primary event rate of 3.8 events per 100 patient-years with warfarin (rate ratio, 0.60; 95% credible interval, 0.41-1.05), meeting prespecified criteria for both noninferiority (posterior probability, >99.9%) and superiority (posterior probability, 96.0%). Patients in the device group demonstrated lower rates of both cardiovascular mortality (1.0 events per 100 patient-years for the device group [17/463 patients, 3.7%] vs 2.4 events per 100 patient-years with warfarin [22/244 patients, 9.0%]; hazard ratio [HR], 0.40; 95% CI, 0.21-0.75; P = .005) and all-cause mortality (3.2 events per 100 patient-years for the device group [57/466 patients, 12.3%] vs 4.8 events per 100 patient-years with warfarin [44/244 patients, 18.0%]; HR, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.45-0.98; P = .04). After 3.8 years of follow-up among patients with nonvalvular AF at elevated risk for stroke, percutaneous LAA closure met criteria for both noninferiority and superiority, compared with warfarin, for preventing the combined outcome of stroke, systemic embolism, and cardiovascular death, as well as superiority for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00129545.

MRI of the knee.

PubMed

Skinner, Sarah

2012-11-01

Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is the gold standard in noninvasive investigation of knee pain. It has a very high negative predictive value and may assist in avoiding unnecessary knee arthroscopy; its accuracy in the diagnosis of meniscal and anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) tears is greater than 89%; it has a greater than 90% sensitivity for the detection of medial meniscal tears; and it is probably better at assessing the posterior horn than arthroscopy.

A direct approach to estimating the number of potential fatalities from an eruption: Application to the Central Volcanic Complex of Tenerife Island

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marrero, J. M.; García, A.; Llinares, A.; Rodriguez-Losada, J. A.; Ortiz, R.

2012-03-01

One of the critical issues in managing volcanic crises is making the decision to evacuate a densely-populated region. In order to take a decision of such importance it is essential to estimate the cost in lives for each of the expected eruptive scenarios. One of the tools that assist in estimating the number of potential fatalities for such decision-making is the calculation of the FN-curves. In this case the FN-curve is a graphical representation that relates the frequency of the different hazards to be expected for a particular volcano or volcanic area, and the number of potential fatalities expected for each event if the zone of impact is not evacuated. In this study we propose a method for assessing the impact that a possible eruption from the Tenerife Central Volcanic Complex (CVC) would have on the population at risk. Factors taken into account include the spatial probability of the eruptive scenarios (susceptibility) and the temporal probability of the magnitudes of the eruptive scenarios. For each point or cell of the susceptibility map with greater probability, a series of probability-scaled hazard maps is constructed for the whole range of magnitudes expected. The number of potential fatalities is obtained from the intersection of the hazard maps with the spatial map of population distribution. The results show that the Emergency Plan for Tenerife must provide for the evacuation of more than 100,000 persons.

Probabilistic Damage Characterization Using the Computationally-Efficient Bayesian Approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Warner, James E.; Hochhalter, Jacob D.

2016-01-01

This work presents a computationally-ecient approach for damage determination that quanti es uncertainty in the provided diagnosis. Given strain sensor data that are polluted with measurement errors, Bayesian inference is used to estimate the location, size, and orientation of damage. This approach uses Bayes' Theorem to combine any prior knowledge an analyst may have about the nature of the damage with information provided implicitly by the strain sensor data to form a posterior probability distribution over possible damage states. The unknown damage parameters are then estimated based on samples drawn numerically from this distribution using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithm. Several modi cations are made to the traditional Bayesian inference approach to provide signi cant computational speedup. First, an ecient surrogate model is constructed using sparse grid interpolation to replace a costly nite element model that must otherwise be evaluated for each sample drawn with MCMC. Next, the standard Bayesian posterior distribution is modi ed using a weighted likelihood formulation, which is shown to improve the convergence of the sampling process. Finally, a robust MCMC algorithm, Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis (DRAM), is adopted to sample the probability distribution more eciently. Numerical examples demonstrate that the proposed framework e ectively provides damage estimates with uncertainty quanti cation and can yield orders of magnitude speedup over standard Bayesian approaches.

A novel Bayesian framework for discriminative feature extraction in Brain-Computer Interfaces.

PubMed

Suk, Heung-Il; Lee, Seong-Whan

2013-02-01

As there has been a paradigm shift in the learning load from a human subject to a computer, machine learning has been considered as a useful tool for Brain-Computer Interfaces (BCIs). In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian framework for discriminative feature extraction for motor imagery classification in an EEG-based BCI in which the class-discriminative frequency bands and the corresponding spatial filters are optimized by means of the probabilistic and information-theoretic approaches. In our framework, the problem of simultaneous spatiospectral filter optimization is formulated as the estimation of an unknown posterior probability density function (pdf) that represents the probability that a single-trial EEG of predefined mental tasks can be discriminated in a state. In order to estimate the posterior pdf, we propose a particle-based approximation method by extending a factored-sampling technique with a diffusion process. An information-theoretic observation model is also devised to measure discriminative power of features between classes. From the viewpoint of classifier design, the proposed method naturally allows us to construct a spectrally weighted label decision rule by linearly combining the outputs from multiple classifiers. We demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method by analyzing the results and its success on three public databases.

Application of the FINDER system to the search for epithermal vein gold-silver deposits : Kushikino, Japan, a case study

USGS Publications Warehouse

Singer, Donald A.; Kouda, Ryoichi

1991-01-01

The FINDER system employs geometric probability, Bayesian statistics, and the normal probability density function to integrate spatial and frequency information to produce a map of probabilities of target centers. Target centers can be mineral deposits, alteration associated with mineral deposits, or any other target that can be represented by a regular shape on a two dimensional map. The size, shape, mean, and standard deviation for each variable are characterized in a control area and the results applied by means of FINDER to the study area. The Kushikino deposit consists of groups of quartz-calcite-adularia veins that produced 55 tonnes of gold and 456 tonnes of silver since 1660. Part of a 6 by 10 km area near Kushikino served as a control area. Within the control area, data plotting, contouring, and cluster analysis were used to identify the barren and mineralized populations. Sodium was found to be depleted in an elliptically shaped area 3.1 by 1.6 km, potassium was both depleted and enriched locally in an elliptically shaped area 3.0 by 1.3 km, and sulfur was enriched in an elliptically shaped area 5.8 by 1.6 km. The potassium, sodium, and sulfur content from 233 surface rock samples were each used in FINDER to produce probability maps for the 12 by 30 km study area which includes Kushikino. High probability areas for each of the individual variables are over and offset up to 4 km eastward from the main Kushikino veins. In general, high probability areas identified by FINDER are displaced from the main veins and cover not only the host andesite and the dacite-andesite that is about the same age as the Kushikino mineralization, but also younger sedimentary rocks, andesite, and tuff units east and northeast of Kushikino. The maps also display the same patterns observed near Kushikino, but with somewhat lower probabilities, about 1.5 km east of the old gold prospect, Hajima, and in a broad zone 2.5 km east-west and 1 km north-south, centered 2 km west of the old gold prospect, Yaeyama.

Glaucoma-related Changes in the Mechanical Properties and Collagen Micro-architecture of the Human Sclera

PubMed Central

Coudrillier, Baptiste; Pijanka, Jacek K.; Jefferys, Joan L.; Goel, Adhiraj; Quigley, Harry A.; Boote, Craig; Nguyen, Thao D.

2015-01-01

Objective The biomechanical behavior of the sclera determines the level of mechanical insult from intraocular pressure to the axons and tissues of the optic nerve head, as is of interest in glaucoma. In this study, we measure the collagen fiber structure and the strain response, and estimate the material properties of glaucomatous and normal human donor scleras. Methods Twenty-two posterior scleras from normal and diagnosed glaucoma donors were obtained from an eyebank. Optic nerve cross-sections were graded to determine the presence of axon loss. The specimens were subjected to pressure-controlled inflation testing. Full-field displacement maps were measured by digital image correlation (DIC) and spatially differentiated to compute surface strains. Maps of the collagen fiber structure across the posterior sclera of each inflated specimen were obtained using synchrotron wide-angle X-ray scattering (WAXS). Finite element (FE) models of the posterior scleras, incorporating a specimen-specific representation of the collagen structure, were constructed from the DIC-measured geometry. An inverse finite element analysis was developed to estimate the stiffness of the collagen fiber and inter-fiber matrix. Results The differences between glaucoma and non-glaucoma eyes were small in magnitude. Sectorial variations of degree of fiber alignment and peripapillary scleral strain significantly differed between normal and diagnosed glaucoma specimens. Meridional strains were on average larger in diagnosed glaucoma eyes compared with normal specimens. Non-glaucoma specimens had on average the lowest matrix and fiber stiffness, followed by undamaged glaucoma eyes, and damaged glaucoma eyes but the differences in stiffness were not significant. Conclusion The observed biomechanical and microstructural changes could be the result of tissue remodeling occuring in glaucoma and are likely to alter the mechanical environment of the optic nerve head and contribute to axonal damage. PMID:26161963

Egg structure and ultrastructure of Paterdecolyus yanbarensis (Insecta, Orthoptera, Anostostomatidae, Anabropsinae).

PubMed

Mashimo, Yuta; Fukui, Makiko; Machida, Ryuichiro

2016-11-01

The egg structure of Paterdecolyus yanbarensis was examined using light, scanning electron and transmission electron microscopy. The egg surface shows a distinct honeycomb pattern formed by exochorionic ridges. Several micropyles are clustered on the ventral side of the egg. The egg membrane is composed of an exochorion penetrated with numerous aeropyles, an endochorion, and an extremely thin vitelline membrane. The endochorion is thickened at the posterior egg pole, probably associated with water absorption. A comparison of egg structure among Orthoptera revealed that the micropylar distribution pattern is conserved in Ensifera and Caelifera and might be regarded as a groundplan feature for each group; in Ensifera, multiple micropyles are clustered on the ventral side of the egg, whereas in Caelifera, micropyles are arranged circularly around the posterior pole of the egg. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structured filtering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granade, Christopher; Wiebe, Nathan

2017-08-01

A major challenge facing existing sequential Monte Carlo methods for parameter estimation in physics stems from the inability of existing approaches to robustly deal with experiments that have different mechanisms that yield the results with equivalent probability. We address this problem here by proposing a form of particle filtering that clusters the particles that comprise the sequential Monte Carlo approximation to the posterior before applying a resampler. Through a new graphical approach to thinking about such models, we are able to devise an artificial-intelligence based strategy that automatically learns the shape and number of the clusters in the support of the posterior. We demonstrate the power of our approach by applying it to randomized gap estimation and a form of low circuit-depth phase estimation where existing methods from the physics literature either exhibit much worse performance or even fail completely.

The right parietal cortex and time perception: back to Critchley and the Zeitraffer phenomenon.

PubMed

Alexander, Iona; Cowey, Alan; Walsh, Vincent

2005-05-01

We investigated the involvement of the posterior parietal cortex in time perception by temporarily disrupting normal functioning in this region, in subjects making prospective judgements of time or pitch. Disruption of the right posterior parietal cortex significantly slowed reaction times when making time, but not pitch, judgements. Similar interference with the left parietal cortex and control stimulation over the vertex did not significantly change performance on either pitch or time tasks. The results show that the information processing necessary for temporal judgements involves the parietal cortex, probably to optimise spatiotemporal accuracy in voluntary action. The results are in agreement with a recent neuroimaging study and are discussed with regard to a psychological model of temporal processing and a recent proposal that time is part of a parietal cortex system for encoding magnitude information relevant for action.

Pyroclastic density current hazard maps at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy): the effects of event scale, vent location and time forecasts.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bevilacqua, Andrea; Neri, Augusto; Esposti Ongaro, Tomaso; Isaia, Roberto; Flandoli, Franco; Bisson, Marina

2016-04-01

Today hundreds of thousands people live inside the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy) and in the adjacent part of the city of Naples making a future eruption of such volcano an event with huge consequences. Very high risks are associated with the occurrence of pyroclastic density currents (PDCs). Mapping of background or long-term PDC hazard in the area is a great challenge due to the unknown eruption time, scale and vent location of the next event as well as the complex dynamics of the flow over the caldera topography. This is additionally complicated by the remarkable epistemic uncertainty on the eruptive record, affecting the time of past events, the location of vents as well as the PDCs areal extent estimates. First probability maps of PDC invasion were produced combining a vent-opening probability map, statistical estimates concerning the eruptive scales and a Cox-type temporal model including self-excitement effects, based on the eruptive record of the last 15 kyr. Maps were produced by using a Monte Carlo approach and adopting a simplified inundation model based on the "box model" integral approximation tested with 2D transient numerical simulations of flow dynamics. In this presentation we illustrate the independent effects of eruption scale, vent location and time of forecast of the next event. Specific focus was given to the remarkable differences between the eastern and western sectors of the caldera and their effects on the hazard maps. The analysis allowed to identify areas with elevated probabilities of flow invasion as a function of the diverse assumptions made. With the quantification of some sources of uncertainty in relation to the system, we were also able to provide mean and percentile maps of PDC hazard levels.

Cell proliferation by silk gut incorporating FGF-2 protein microcrystals.

PubMed

Kotani, Eiji; Yamamoto, Naoto; Kobayashi, Isao; Uchino, Keiro; Muto, Sayaka; Ijiri, Hiroshi; Shimabukuro, Junji; Tamura, Toshiki; Sezutsu, Hideki; Mori, Hajime

2015-06-08

Silk gut processed from the silk glands of the silkworm could be an ideal biodegradable carrier for cell growth factors. We previously demonstrated that polyhedra, microcrystals of Cypovirus 1 polyhedrin, can serve as versatile carrier proteins. Here, we report the generation of a transgenic silkworm that expresses polyhedrin together with human basic fibroblast growth factor (FGF-2) in its posterior silk glands to utilize silk gut as a proteinaceous carrier to protect and slowly release active cell growth factors. In the posterior silk glands, polyhedrin formed polyhedral microcrystals, and FGF-2 became encapsulated within the polyhedra due to a polyhedron-immobilization signal. Silk gut powder prepared from posterior silk glands containing polyhedron-encapsulated FGF-2 stimulated the phosphorylation of p44/p42 MAP kinase and induced the proliferation of serum-starved NIH3T3 cells by releasing bioactive FGF-2. Even after a one-week incubation at 25 °C, significantly higher biological activity of FGF-2 was observed for silk gut powder incorporating polyhedron-encapsulated FGF-2 relative to silk gut powder with non-encapsulated FGF-2. Our results demonstrate that posterior silk glands incorporating polyhedron-encapsulated FGF-2 are applicable to the preparation of biodegradable silk gut, which can protect and release FGF-2 that is produced in a virus- and serum-free expression system with significant application potential.

Probabilistic self-organizing maps for continuous data.

PubMed

Lopez-Rubio, Ezequiel

2010-10-01

The original self-organizing feature map did not define any probability distribution on the input space. However, the advantages of introducing probabilistic methodologies into self-organizing map models were soon evident. This has led to a wide range of proposals which reflect the current emergence of probabilistic approaches to computational intelligence. The underlying estimation theories behind them derive from two main lines of thought: the expectation maximization methodology and stochastic approximation methods. Here, we present a comprehensive view of the state of the art, with a unifying perspective of the involved theoretical frameworks. In particular, we examine the most commonly used continuous probability distributions, self-organization mechanisms, and learning schemes. Special emphasis is given to the connections among them and their relative advantages depending on the characteristics of the problem at hand. Furthermore, we evaluate their performance in two typical applications of self-organizing maps: classification and visualization.

False Positive Probabilities for all Kepler Objects of Interest: 1284 Newly Validated Planets and 428 Likely False Positives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morton, Timothy D.; Bryson, Stephen T.; Coughlin, Jeffrey L.; Rowe, Jason F.; Ravichandran, Ganesh; Petigura, Erik A.; Haas, Michael R.; Batalha, Natalie M.

2016-05-01

We present astrophysical false positive probability calculations for every Kepler Object of Interest (KOI)—the first large-scale demonstration of a fully automated transiting planet validation procedure. Out of 7056 KOIs, we determine that 1935 have probabilities <1% of being astrophysical false positives, and thus may be considered validated planets. Of these, 1284 have not yet been validated or confirmed by other methods. In addition, we identify 428 KOIs that are likely to be false positives, but have not yet been identified as such, though some of these may be a result of unidentified transit timing variations. A side product of these calculations is full stellar property posterior samplings for every host star, modeled as single, binary, and triple systems. These calculations use vespa, a publicly available Python package that is able to be easily applied to any transiting exoplanet candidate.

Asymmetry and anisotropy of surface effects of mining induced seismic events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lasocki, Stanislaw; Orlecka-Sikora, Beata

2013-04-01

Long-lasting exploitation in underground mines and the complex system of goaf - unmined areas - excavation may cause the occurrence of seismic events, whose influence in the excavation and on the free surface is untypical. We present here the analysis of surface effects of a series of ten seismic events that occurred in one panel of a copper-ore mine. The analysis bases on a comparison of the observed ground motion due to the studied events with the estimates from Ground Motion Prediction Equations for peak horizontal (PHA) and vertical (PVA) acceleration of motion in the frequency band up to 10Hz, local for that mining area. The GMPE-s take into account also relative site amplification factors. The posterior probabilities that the observed PHA-s are not attained according to GMPE-s are calculated and mapped. Although all ten considered events had comparable magnitudes and were located close one to another their ground effects were very diverse. The analysis of anomalies of surface effects shows strong asymmetry of ground motion propagation and anisotropy of surface effects of the studied tremors. Based on similarities of surface effects anomalies, expressed in terms of the posterior probabilities, the events are split into distinct groups. In case of four events the actual PHA-s on most of the stations are greater than the respective estimated medians, especially in the sector N-SE. The PHA values of the second group are at short epicentral distances mostly on the same level as the predicted estimates from GMPE. The observed effects, however, become abnormally strong with the increase of epicentral distances in the sector NE-SE. The effects of events from next groups abnormally increase either in NE or NE - SE direction and the maximum anomalies appear about 3km from the epicenter. The extreme discrepancies can be attributed neither to local site effects nor to preferential propagation conditions along some wavepaths. Therefore it is concluded that the observed anomalies of ground motion result from sources properties. Integrated analysis of source mechanism of these events indicates that their untypical and diverse surface effects result from complexity of their sources expressed by tensile source mechanisms, finite sources, directivity of ruptures and nearly horizontal rupture planes. The above features seem to be implied by a superposition of coseismic alterations of stress field and stress changes due to mining. This work has been done in the framework of the research project No. NN525393539, financed by the National Science Centre of Poland for the period 2010-2013.

On Voxel based Iso-Tumor Control Probabilty and Iso-Complication Maps for Selective Boosting and Selective Avoidance Intensity Modulated Radiotherapy

PubMed Central

Kim, Yusung; Tomé, Wolfgang A.

2010-01-01

Summary Voxel based iso-Tumor Control Probability (TCP) maps and iso-Complication maps are proposed as a plan-review tool especially for functional image-guided intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) strategies such as selective boosting (dose painting) and conformal avoidance IMRT. The maps employ voxel-based phenomenological biological dose-response models for target volumes and normal organs. Two IMRT strategies for prostate cancer, namely conventional uniform IMRT delivering an EUD = 84 Gy (equivalent uniform dose) to the entire PTV and selective boosting delivering an EUD = 82 Gy to the entire PTV, are investigated, to illustrate the advantages of this approach over iso-dose maps. Conventional uniform IMRT did yield a more uniform isodose map to the entire PTV while selective boosting did result in a nonuniform isodose map. However, when employing voxel based iso-TCP maps selective boosting exhibited a more uniform tumor control probability map compared to what could be achieved using conventional uniform IMRT, which showed TCP cold spots in high-risk tumor subvolumes despite delivering a higher EUD to the entire PTV. Voxel based iso-Complication maps are presented for rectum and bladder, and their utilization for selective avoidance IMRT strategies are discussed. We believe as the need for functional image guided treatment planning grows, voxel based iso-TCP and iso-Complication maps will become an important tool to assess the integrity of such treatment plans. PMID:21151734

[Occiput posterior presentation at delivery: Materno-foetal outcomes and predictive factors of rotation].

PubMed

Othenin-Girard, V; Boulvain, M; Guittier, M-J

2018-02-01

To describe the maternal and foetal outcomes of an occiput posterior foetal position at delivery; to evaluate predictive factors of anterior rotation during labour. Descriptive retrospective analysis of a cohort of 439 women with foetuses in occiput posterior position during labour. Logistic regression analysis to quantify the effect of factors that may favour anterior rotation. Most of foetuses (64%) do an anterior rotation during labour and 13% during the expulsive phase. The consequences of a persistent foetal occiput posterior position during delivery are a significantly increased average time of second stage labour compared to others positions (65.19minutes vs. 43.29, P=0.001, respectively); a higher percentage of caesarean sections (72.0% versus 4.7%, P<0.001) and instrumental delivery (among low-birth deliveries, 60.7% versus 25.2%, P<0.001); more frequent third-degree perineal tears (14.3% vs. 0.6%, P<0.001) and more abundant blood loss (560mL versus 344mL, P<0.001). In a multi-variable model including nulliparity, station of the presenting part and degree of flexion of the foetal head at complete dilatation, the only predictive factor independent of rotation at delivery is a good flexion of the foetal head at complete dilatation, which multiplies the anterior rotation probability by six. A good flexion of the foetal head is significantly associated with anterior rotation. Other studies exploring ways to increase anterior rotation during labour are needed to reduce the very high risk of caesarean section and instrumentation associated with the foetal occiput posterior position. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Magnetic resonance spectroscopy and brain volumetry in mild cognitive impairment. A prospective study.

PubMed

Fayed, Nicolás; Modrego, Pedro J; García-Martí, Gracián; Sanz-Requena, Roberto; Marti-Bonmatí, Luis

2017-05-01

To assess the accuracy of magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) and brain volumetry in mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to predict conversion to probable Alzheimer's disease (AD). Forty-eight patients fulfilling the criteria of amnestic MCI who underwent a conventional magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) followed by MRS, and T1-3D on 1.5 Tesla MR unit. At baseline the patients underwent neuropsychological examination. 1H-MRS of the brain was carried out by exploring the left medial occipital lobe and ventral posterior cingulated cortex (vPCC) using the LCModel software. A high resolution T1-3D sequence was acquired to carry out the volumetric measurement. A cortical and subcortical parcellation strategy was used to obtain the volumes of each area within the brain. The patients were followed up to detect conversion to probable AD. After a 3-year follow-up, 15 (31.2%) patients converted to AD. The myo-inositol in the occipital cortex and glutamate+glutamine (Glx) in the posterior cingulate cortex predicted conversion to probable AD at 46.1% sensitivity and 90.6% specificity. The positive predictive value was 66.7%, and the negative predictive value was 80.6%, with an overall cross-validated classification accuracy of 77.8%. The volume of the third ventricle, the total white matter and entorhinal cortex predict conversion to probable AD at 46.7% sensitivity and 90.9% specificity. The positive predictive value was 70%, and the negative predictive value was 78.9%, with an overall cross-validated classification accuracy of 77.1%. Combining volumetric measures in addition to the MRS measures the prediction to probable AD has a 38.5% sensitivity and 87.5% specificity, with a positive predictive value of 55.6%, a negative predictive value of 77.8% and an overall accuracy of 73.3%. Either MRS or brain volumetric measures are markers separately of cognitive decline and may serve as a noninvasive tool to monitor cognitive changes and progression to dementia in patients with amnestic MCI, but the results do not support the routine use in the clinical settings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Inference of reaction rate parameters based on summary statistics from experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Khalil, Mohammad; Chowdhary, Kamaljit Singh; Safta, Cosmin

Here, we present the results of an application of Bayesian inference and maximum entropy methods for the estimation of the joint probability density for the Arrhenius rate para meters of the rate coefficient of the H 2/O 2-mechanism chain branching reaction H + O 2 → OH + O. Available published data is in the form of summary statistics in terms of nominal values and error bars of the rate coefficient of this reaction at a number of temperature values obtained from shock-tube experiments. Our approach relies on generating data, in this case OH concentration profiles, consistent with the givenmore » summary statistics, using Approximate Bayesian Computation methods and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure. The approach permits the forward propagation of parametric uncertainty through the computational model in a manner that is consistent with the published statistics. A consensus joint posterior on the parameters is obtained by pooling the posterior parameter densities given each consistent data set. To expedite this process, we construct efficient surrogates for the OH concentration using a combination of Pad'e and polynomial approximants. These surrogate models adequately represent forward model observables and their dependence on input parameters and are computationally efficient to allow their use in the Bayesian inference procedure. We also utilize Gauss-Hermite quadrature with Gaussian proposal probability density functions for moment computation resulting in orders of magnitude speedup in data likelihood evaluation. Despite the strong non-linearity in the model, the consistent data sets all res ult in nearly Gaussian conditional parameter probability density functions. The technique also accounts for nuisance parameters in the form of Arrhenius parameters of other rate coefficients with prescribed uncertainty. The resulting pooled parameter probability density function is propagated through stoichiometric hydrogen-air auto-ignition computations to illustrate the need to account for correlation among the Arrhenius rate parameters of one reaction and across rate parameters of different reactions.« less

Inference of reaction rate parameters based on summary statistics from experiments

DOE PAGES

Khalil, Mohammad; Chowdhary, Kamaljit Singh; Safta, Cosmin; ...

2016-10-15

Here, we present the results of an application of Bayesian inference and maximum entropy methods for the estimation of the joint probability density for the Arrhenius rate para meters of the rate coefficient of the H 2/O 2-mechanism chain branching reaction H + O 2 → OH + O. Available published data is in the form of summary statistics in terms of nominal values and error bars of the rate coefficient of this reaction at a number of temperature values obtained from shock-tube experiments. Our approach relies on generating data, in this case OH concentration profiles, consistent with the givenmore » summary statistics, using Approximate Bayesian Computation methods and a Markov Chain Monte Carlo procedure. The approach permits the forward propagation of parametric uncertainty through the computational model in a manner that is consistent with the published statistics. A consensus joint posterior on the parameters is obtained by pooling the posterior parameter densities given each consistent data set. To expedite this process, we construct efficient surrogates for the OH concentration using a combination of Pad'e and polynomial approximants. These surrogate models adequately represent forward model observables and their dependence on input parameters and are computationally efficient to allow their use in the Bayesian inference procedure. We also utilize Gauss-Hermite quadrature with Gaussian proposal probability density functions for moment computation resulting in orders of magnitude speedup in data likelihood evaluation. Despite the strong non-linearity in the model, the consistent data sets all res ult in nearly Gaussian conditional parameter probability density functions. The technique also accounts for nuisance parameters in the form of Arrhenius parameters of other rate coefficients with prescribed uncertainty. The resulting pooled parameter probability density function is propagated through stoichiometric hydrogen-air auto-ignition computations to illustrate the need to account for correlation among the Arrhenius rate parameters of one reaction and across rate parameters of different reactions.« less

Variational Gaussian approximation for Poisson data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arridge, Simon R.; Ito, Kazufumi; Jin, Bangti; Zhang, Chen

2018-02-01

The Poisson model is frequently employed to describe count data, but in a Bayesian context it leads to an analytically intractable posterior probability distribution. In this work, we analyze a variational Gaussian approximation to the posterior distribution arising from the Poisson model with a Gaussian prior. This is achieved by seeking an optimal Gaussian distribution minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence from the posterior distribution to the approximation, or equivalently maximizing the lower bound for the model evidence. We derive an explicit expression for the lower bound, and show the existence and uniqueness of the optimal Gaussian approximation. The lower bound functional can be viewed as a variant of classical Tikhonov regularization that penalizes also the covariance. Then we develop an efficient alternating direction maximization algorithm for solving the optimization problem, and analyze its convergence. We discuss strategies for reducing the computational complexity via low rank structure of the forward operator and the sparsity of the covariance. Further, as an application of the lower bound, we discuss hierarchical Bayesian modeling for selecting the hyperparameter in the prior distribution, and propose a monotonically convergent algorithm for determining the hyperparameter. We present extensive numerical experiments to illustrate the Gaussian approximation and the algorithms.

Head sensory organs of Dactylopodola baltica (Macrodasyida, Gastrotricha): a combination of transmission electron microscopical and immunocytochemical techniques.

PubMed

Liesenjohann, Thilo; Neuhaus, Birger; Schmidt-Rhaesa, Andreas

2006-08-01

The anterior and posterior head sensory organs of Dactylopodola baltica (Macrodasyida, Gastrotricha) were investigated by transmission electron microscopy (TEM). In addition, whole individuals were labeled with phalloidin to mark F-actin and with anti-alpha-tubulin antibodies to mark microtubuli and studied with confocal laser scanning microscopy. Immunocytochemistry reveals that the large number of ciliary processes in the anterior head sensory organ contain F-actin; no signal could be detected for alpha-tubulin. Labeling with anti-alpha-tubulin antibodies revealed that the anterior and posterior head sensory organs are innervated by a common stem of nerves from the lateral nerve cords just anterior of the dorsal brain commissure. TEM studies showed that the anterior head sensory organ is composed of one sheath cell and one sensory cell with a single branching cilium that possesses a basal inflated part and regularly arranged ciliary processes. Each ciliary process contains one central microtubule. The posterior head sensory organ consists of at least one pigmented sheath cell and several probably monociliary sensory cells. Each cilium branches into irregularly arranged ciliary processes. These characters are assumed to belong to the ground pattern of the Gastrotricha. Copyright 2006 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Probabilistic storm surge inundation maps for Metro Manila based on Philippine public storm warning signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

2015-03-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water over the astronomical tides, generated by an approaching storm. This event poses a major threat to the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013. This hydro-meteorological hazard is one of the main reasons for the high number of casualties due to the typhoon, with 6300 deaths. It became evident that the need to develop a storm surge inundation map is of utmost importance. To develop these maps, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate storm surge heights. The frequency distribution of the maximum storm surge heights was calculated using simulation results of tropical cyclones under a specific public storm warning signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of inundation for a specific PSWS using the probability of exceedance derived from the frequency distribution. Buildings and other structures were assigned a probability of exceedance depending on their occupancy category, i.e., 1% probability of exceedance for critical facilities, 10% probability of exceedance for special occupancy structures, and 25% for standard occupancy and miscellaneous structures. The maps produced show the storm-surge-vulnerable areas in Metro Manila, illustrated by the flood depth of up to 4 m and extent of up to 6.5 km from the coastline. This information can help local government units in developing early warning systems, disaster preparedness and mitigation plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. These maps can also determine the best areas to build critical structures, or at least determine the level of protection of these structures should they be built in hazard areas. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate countermeasures for a given PSWS.