Education, Markets and the Pedagogy of Personalisation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hartley, David

2008-01-01

The marketisation of education in England began in the 1980s. It was facilitated by national testing (which gave objective and comparable information to parents), and by the New Public Management (which introduced a posteriori funding and competition among providers). Now a new complementary phase of marketisation is being introduced:…

Mind Your p's and Alphas.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stallings, William M.

In the educational research literature alpha, the a priori level of significance, and p, the a posteriori probability of obtaining a test statistic of at least a certain value when the null hypothesis is true, are often confused. Explanations for this confusion are offered. Paradoxically, alpha retains a prominent place in textbook discussions of…

Revisiting the “a posteriori” granddaughter design

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

An updated search for quantitative trait loci (QTLs) in the Holstein genome was conducted using the a posteriori granddaughter design. The number of Holstein sires with 100 or more genotyped and progeny-tested sons has increased from the previous 52 to 71 for a total of 14,246 sons. The bovine genom...

Seismic Discrimination of Earthquakes and Explosions, with Application to the Southwestern United States

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-03-22

multi-station discriminants than by those based on network averages. In spite of this situ - ation, average a posteriori probabilities were sometimes...Technology, Pasadena, California. Allen, C. R., L. T. Silver, and F. G. Stehi (1960). Agua Blanca fault - a major transverse structure of northern Baja

Using the Pearson Distribution for Synthesis of the Suboptimal Algorithms for Filtering Multi-Dimensional Markov Processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mit'kin, A. S.; Pogorelov, V. A.; Chub, E. G.

2015-08-01

We consider the method of constructing the suboptimal filter on the basis of approximating the a posteriori probability density of the multidimensional Markov process by the Pearson distributions. The proposed method can efficiently be used for approximating asymmetric, excessive, and finite densities.

Lexical Diversity in Writing and Speaking Task Performances

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yu, Guoxing

2010-01-01

In the rating scales of major international language tests, as well as in automated evaluation systems (e.g. e-rater), a positive relationship is often claimed between lexical diversity, holistic quality of written or spoken discourses, and language proficiency of candidates. This article reports a "posteriori" validation study that analysed a…

A Regional CO2 Observing System Simulation Experiment for the ASCENDS Satellite Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, J. S.; Kawa, S. R.; Eluszkiewicz, J.; Baker, D. F.; Mountain, M.; Henderson, J.; Nehrkorn, T.; Zaccheo, T. S.

2014-01-01

Top-down estimates of the spatiotemporal variations in emissions and uptake of CO2 will benefit from the increasing measurement density brought by recent and future additions to the suite of in situ and remote CO2 measurement platforms. In particular, the planned NASA Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) satellite mission will provide greater coverage in cloudy regions, at high latitudes, and at night than passive satellite systems, as well as high precision and accuracy. In a novel approach to quantifying the ability of satellite column measurements to constrain CO2 fluxes, we use a portable library of footprints (surface influence functions) generated by the WRF-STILT Lagrangian transport model in a regional Bayesian synthesis inversion. The regional Lagrangian framework is well suited to make use of ASCENDS observations to constrain fluxes at high resolution, in this case at 1 degree latitude x 1 degree longitude and weekly for North America. We consider random measurement errors only, modeled as a function of mission and instrument design specifications along with realistic atmospheric and surface conditions. We find that the ASCENDS observations could potentially reduce flux uncertainties substantially at biome and finer scales. At the 1 degree x 1 degree, weekly scale, the largest uncertainty reductions, on the order of 50 percent, occur where and when there is good coverage by observations with low measurement errors and the a priori uncertainties are large. Uncertainty reductions are smaller for a 1.57 micron candidate wavelength than for a 2.05 micron wavelength, and are smaller for the higher of the two measurement error levels that we consider (1.0 ppm vs. 0.5 ppm clear-sky error at Railroad Valley, Nevada). Uncertainty reductions at the annual, biome scale range from 40 percent to 75 percent across our four instrument design cases, and from 65 percent to 85 percent for the continent as a whole. Our uncertainty reductions at various scales are substantially smaller than those from a global ASCENDS inversion on a coarser grid, demonstrating how quantitative results can depend on inversion methodology. The a posteriori flux uncertainties we obtain, ranging from 0.01 to 0.06 Pg C yr-1 across the biomes, would meet requirements for improved understanding of long-term carbon sinks suggested by a previous study.

Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry applied to historical imagery: plug & play?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bakker, Maarten; Lane, Stuart N.

2017-04-01

The development of Structure from Motion (SfM) photogrammetry has led to a vast increase and expansion of geomorphological applications. Highly detailed Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) can be efficiently generated from a variety of platforms that cover a large range of spatial scales. For the application of DEMs in geomorphic change analysis, precision and spatial resolution are not of sole importance, but also their accuracy, temporal resolution and temporal coverage. The use of archival imagery may substantially lengthen temporal coverage, allowing quantification of annual to decadal scale landform change. Whilst archival photogrammetry is not new, a question arises as to how applicable SfM methods are as a more cost-effective and straightforward alternative to the conventional approach. Here, we studied a relatively extreme case where we applied SfM techniques to archival aerial imagery, to investigate the decadal evolution of a low relief braided river. The Borgne is an Alpine river in south-west Switzerland which is strongly affected by flow abstraction for hydropower, allowing the fairly straightforward application of photogrammetry on the near-dry river bed. For 8 sets of scanned historical aerial images in the period 1959-2005 we performed Ground Control Point (GCP) assisted bundle adjustment using both classical archival digital photogrammetry (used as a reference dataset) and SfM based photogrammetry. For the SfM method, no further data were used to constrain camera or exterior orientation parameters a priori, but instead we used these for a posteriori verification. The resulting densified point clouds were registered onto a reference surface based on stable areas, allowing the correction for any systematic error in DEMs that may arise from (random) error in the bundle adjustment. The obtained results show that the quality of the SfM based bundle adjustment is similar to that of the classical photogrammetric approach. Next to image scale, the quality is strongly driven by ability of computer vision techniques to extract tie-points, which is controlled by image texture (quantified here using entropy) and image overlap (redundancy). Depending on the used image set, these characteristics may therefore be effectively exploited or pose a limitation for application. The quality of the results aside, we found that the recovered bundle adjustment parameters were not necessarily correct and that there was the possibility for a trade-off, between estimated focal length and camera flying height for example, such that the right results were obtained if not for the right reasons. This highlights the need to assess camera and exterior orientation parameters, and to address systematic errors that may evolve from this. For the latter, we found that point cloud registration is crucial, particularly in a low relief environment such as a braided river, for accurate change quantification and geomorphic interpretation. We conclude that, given a suitable set of images and considering principles of classical photogrammetric analysis, SfM methods can be effectively applied for archival imagery analysis, but that this is by no means a plug and play methodology.

Techniques for the Enhancement of Linear Predictive Speech Coding in Adverse Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wrench, Alan A.

Available from UMI in association with The British Library. Requires signed TDF. The Linear Prediction model was first applied to speech two and a half decades ago. Since then it has been the subject of intense research and continues to be one of the principal tools in the analysis of speech. Its mathematical tractability makes it a suitable subject for study and its proven success in practical applications makes the study worthwhile. The model is known to be unsuited to speech corrupted by background noise. This has led many researchers to investigate ways of enhancing the speech signal prior to Linear Predictive analysis. In this thesis this body of work is extended. The chosen application is low bit-rate (2.4 kbits/sec) speech coding. For this task the performance of the Linear Prediction algorithm is crucial because there is insufficient bandwidth to encode the error between the modelled speech and the original input. A review of the fundamentals of Linear Prediction and an independent assessment of the relative performance of methods of Linear Prediction modelling are presented. A new method is proposed which is fast and facilitates stability checking, however, its stability is shown to be unacceptably poorer than existing methods. A novel supposition governing the positioning of the analysis frame relative to a voiced speech signal is proposed and supported by observation. The problem of coding noisy speech is examined. Four frequency domain speech processing techniques are developed and tested. These are: (i) Combined Order Linear Prediction Spectral Estimation; (ii) Frequency Scaling According to an Aural Model; (iii) Amplitude Weighting Based on Perceived Loudness; (iv) Power Spectrum Squaring. These methods are compared with the Recursive Linearised Maximum a Posteriori method. Following on from work done in the frequency domain, a time domain implementation of spectrum squaring is developed. In addition, a new method of power spectrum estimation is developed based on the Minimum Variance approach. This new algorithm is shown to be closely related to Linear Prediction but produces slightly broader spectral peaks. Spectrum squaring is applied to both the new algorithm and standard Linear Prediction and their relative performance is assessed. (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

Evaluation of two methods for using MR information in PET reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldeira, L.; Scheins, J.; Almeida, P.; Herzog, H.

2013-02-01

Using magnetic resonance (MR) information in maximum a posteriori (MAP) algorithms for positron emission tomography (PET) image reconstruction has been investigated in the last years. Recently, three methods to introduce this information have been evaluated and the Bowsher prior was considered the best. Its main advantage is that it does not require image segmentation. Another method that has been widely used for incorporating MR information is using boundaries obtained by segmentation. This method has also shown improvements in image quality. In this paper, two methods for incorporating MR information in PET reconstruction are compared. After a Bayes parameter optimization, the reconstructed images were compared using the mean squared error (MSE) and the coefficient of variation (CV). MSE values are 3% lower in Bowsher than using boundaries. CV values are 10% lower in Bowsher than using boundaries. Both methods performed better than using no prior, that is, maximum likelihood expectation maximization (MLEM) or MAP without anatomic information in terms of MSE and CV. Concluding, incorporating MR information using the Bowsher prior gives better results in terms of MSE and CV than boundaries. MAP algorithms showed again to be effective in noise reduction and convergence, specially when MR information is incorporated. The robustness of the priors in respect to noise and inhomogeneities in the MR image has however still to be performed.

Probabilistic models in human sensorimotor control

PubMed Central

Wolpert, Daniel M.

2009-01-01

Sensory and motor uncertainty form a fundamental constraint on human sensorimotor control. Bayesian decision theory (BDT) has emerged as a unifying framework to understand how the central nervous system performs optimal estimation and control in the face of such uncertainty. BDT has two components: Bayesian statistics and decision theory. Here we review Bayesian statistics and show how it applies to estimating the state of the world and our own body. Recent results suggest that when learning novel tasks we are able to learn the statistical properties of both the world and our own sensory apparatus so as to perform estimation using Bayesian statistics. We review studies which suggest that humans can combine multiple sources of information to form maximum likelihood estimates, can incorporate prior beliefs about possible states of the world so as to generate maximum a posteriori estimates and can use Kalman filter-based processes to estimate time-varying states. Finally, we review Bayesian decision theory in motor control and how the central nervous system processes errors to determine loss functions and optimal actions. We review results that suggest we plan movements based on statistics of our actions that result from signal-dependent noise on our motor outputs. Taken together these studies provide a statistical framework for how the motor system performs in the presence of uncertainty. PMID:17628731

Performance Enhancement of MC-CDMA System through Novel Sensitive Bit Algorithm Aided Turbo Multi User Detection

PubMed Central

Kumaravel, Rasadurai; Narayanaswamy, Kumaratharan

2015-01-01

Multi carrier code division multiple access (MC-CDMA) system is a promising multi carrier modulation (MCM) technique for high data rate wireless communication over frequency selective fading channels. MC-CDMA system is a combination of code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM). The OFDM parts reduce multipath fading and inter symbol interference (ISI) and the CDMA part increases spectrum utilization. Advantages of this technique are its robustness in case of multipath propagation and improve security with the minimize ISI. Nevertheless, due to the loss of orthogonality at the receiver in a mobile environment, the multiple access interference (MAI) appears. The MAI is one of the factors that degrade the bit error rate (BER) performance of MC-CDMA system. The multiuser detection (MUD) and turbo coding are the two dominant techniques for enhancing the performance of the MC-CDMA systems in terms of BER as a solution of overcome to MAI effects. In this paper a low complexity iterative soft sensitive bits algorithm (SBA) aided logarithmic-Maximum a-Posteriori algorithm (Log MAP) based turbo MUD is proposed. Simulation results show that the proposed method provides better BER performance with low complexity decoding, by mitigating the detrimental effects of MAI. PMID:25714917

Bayesian Recurrent Neural Network for Language Modeling.

PubMed

Chien, Jen-Tzung; Ku, Yuan-Chu

2016-02-01

A language model (LM) is calculated as the probability of a word sequence that provides the solution to word prediction for a variety of information systems. A recurrent neural network (RNN) is powerful to learn the large-span dynamics of a word sequence in the continuous space. However, the training of the RNN-LM is an ill-posed problem because of too many parameters from a large dictionary size and a high-dimensional hidden layer. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to regularize the RNN-LM and apply it for continuous speech recognition. We aim to penalize the too complicated RNN-LM by compensating for the uncertainty of the estimated model parameters, which is represented by a Gaussian prior. The objective function in a Bayesian classification network is formed as the regularized cross-entropy error function. The regularized model is constructed not only by calculating the regularized parameters according to the maximum a posteriori criterion but also by estimating the Gaussian hyperparameter by maximizing the marginal likelihood. A rapid approximation to a Hessian matrix is developed to implement the Bayesian RNN-LM (BRNN-LM) by selecting a small set of salient outer-products. The proposed BRNN-LM achieves a sparser model than the RNN-LM. Experiments on different corpora show the robustness of system performance by applying the rapid BRNN-LM under different conditions.

Multiple-hypothesis multiple-model line tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pace, Donald W.; Owen, Mark W.; Cox, Henry

2000-07-01

Passive sonar signal processing generally includes tracking of narrowband and/or broadband signature components observed on a Lofargram or on a Bearing-Time-Record (BTR) display. Fielded line tracking approaches to date have been recursive and single-hypthesis-oriented Kalman- or alpha-beta filters, with no mechanism for considering tracking alternatives beyond the most recent scan of measurements. While adaptivity is often built into the filter to handle changing track dynamics, these approaches are still extensions of single target tracking solutions to multiple target tracking environment. This paper describes an application of multiple-hypothesis, multiple target tracking technology to the sonar line tracking problem. A Multiple Hypothesis Line Tracker (MHLT) is developed which retains the recursive minimum-mean-square-error tracking behavior of a Kalman Filter in a maximum-a-posteriori delayed-decision multiple hypothesis context. Multiple line track filter states are developed and maintained using the interacting multiple model (IMM) state representation. Further, the data association and assignment problem is enhanced by considering line attribute information (line bandwidth and SNR) in addition to beam/bearing and frequency fit. MHLT results on real sonar data are presented to demonstrate the benefits of the multiple hypothesis approach. The utility of the system in cluttered environments and particularly in crossing line situations is shown.

Use of the ventricular propagated excitation model in the magnetocardiographic inverse problem for reconstruction of electrophysiological properties.

PubMed

Ohyu, Shigeharu; Okamoto, Yoshiwo; Kuriki, Shinya

2002-06-01

A novel magnetocardiographic inverse method for reconstructing the action potential amplitude (APA) and the activation time (AT) on the ventricular myocardium is proposed. This method is based on the propagated excitation model, in which the excitation is propagated through the ventricle with nonuniform height of action potential. Assumption of stepwise waveform on the transmembrane potential was introduced in the model. Spatial gradient of transmembrane potential, which is defined by APA and AT distributed in the ventricular wall, is used for the computation of a current source distribution. Based on this source model, the distributions of APA and AT are inversely reconstructed from the QRS interval of magnetocardiogram (MCG) utilizing a maximum a posteriori approach. The proposed reconstruction method was tested through computer simulations. Stability of the methods with respect to measurement noise was demonstrated. When reference APA was provided as a uniform distribution, root-mean-square errors of estimated APA were below 10 mV for MCG signal-to-noise ratios greater than, or equal to, 20 dB. Low-amplitude regions located at several sites in reference APA distributions were correctly reproduced in reconstructed APA distributions. The goal of our study is to develop a method for detecting myocardial ischemia through the depression of reconstructed APA distributions.

Jacobian projection reduced-order models for dynamic systems with contact nonlinearities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gastaldi, Chiara; Zucca, Stefano; Epureanu, Bogdan I.

2018-02-01

In structural dynamics, the prediction of the response of systems with localized nonlinearities, such as friction dampers, is of particular interest. This task becomes especially cumbersome when high-resolution finite element models are used. While state-of-the-art techniques such as Craig-Bampton component mode synthesis are employed to generate reduced order models, the interface (nonlinear) degrees of freedom must still be solved in-full. For this reason, a new generation of specialized techniques capable of reducing linear and nonlinear degrees of freedom alike is emerging. This paper proposes a new technique that exploits spatial correlations in the dynamics to compute a reduction basis. The basis is composed of a set of vectors obtained using the Jacobian of partial derivatives of the contact forces with respect to nodal displacements. These basis vectors correspond to specifically chosen boundary conditions at the contacts over one cycle of vibration. The technique is shown to be effective in the reduction of several models studied using multiple harmonics with a coupled static solution. In addition, this paper addresses another challenge common to all reduction techniques: it presents and validates a novel a posteriori error estimate capable of evaluating the quality of the reduced-order solution without involving a comparison with the full-order solution.

Comparison of Grouping Schemes for Exposure to Total Dust in Cement Factories in Korea.

PubMed

Koh, Dong-Hee; Kim, Tae-Woo; Jang, Seung Hee; Ryu, Hyang-Woo; Park, Donguk

2015-08-01

The purpose of this study was to evaluate grouping schemes for exposure to total dust in cement industry workers using non-repeated measurement data. In total, 2370 total dust measurements taken from nine Portland cement factories in 1995-2009 were analyzed. Various grouping schemes were generated based on work process, job, factory, or average exposure. To characterize variance components of each grouping scheme, we developed mixed-effects models with a B-spline time trend incorporated as fixed effects and a grouping variable incorporated as a random effect. Using the estimated variance components, elasticity was calculated. To compare the prediction performances of different grouping schemes, 10-fold cross-validation tests were conducted, and root mean squared errors and pooled correlation coefficients were calculated for each grouping scheme. The five exposure groups created a posteriori by ranking job and factory combinations according to average dust exposure showed the best prediction performance and highest elasticity among various grouping schemes. Our findings suggest a grouping method based on ranking of job, and factory combinations would be the optimal choice in this population. Our grouping method may aid exposure assessment efforts in similar occupational settings, minimizing the misclassification of exposures. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Occupational Hygiene Society.

Calibration methods influence quantitative material decomposition in photon-counting spectral CT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curtis, Tyler E.; Roeder, Ryan K.

2017-03-01

Photon-counting detectors and nanoparticle contrast agents can potentially enable molecular imaging and material decomposition in computed tomography (CT). Material decomposition has been investigated using both simulated and acquired data sets. However, the effect of calibration methods on material decomposition has not been systematically investigated. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate the influence of the range and number of contrast agent concentrations within a modular calibration phantom on quantitative material decomposition. A commerciallyavailable photon-counting spectral micro-CT (MARS Bioimaging) was used to acquire images with five energy bins selected to normalize photon counts and leverage the contrast agent k-edge. Material basis matrix values were determined using multiple linear regression models and material decomposition was performed using a maximum a posteriori estimator. The accuracy of quantitative material decomposition was evaluated by the root mean squared error (RMSE), specificity, sensitivity, and area under the curve (AUC). An increased maximum concentration (range) in the calibration significantly improved RMSE, specificity and AUC. The effects of an increased number of concentrations in the calibration were not statistically significant for the conditions in this study. The overall results demonstrated that the accuracy of quantitative material decomposition in spectral CT is significantly influenced by calibration methods, which must therefore be carefully considered for the intended diagnostic imaging application.

Reconstruction of signals with unknown spectra in information field theory with parameter uncertainty

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ensslin, Torsten A.; Frommert, Mona

2011-05-15

The optimal reconstruction of cosmic metric perturbations and other signals requires knowledge of their power spectra and other parameters. If these are not known a priori, they have to be measured simultaneously from the same data used for the signal reconstruction. We formulate the general problem of signal inference in the presence of unknown parameters within the framework of information field theory. To solve this, we develop a generic parameter-uncertainty renormalized estimation (PURE) technique. As a concrete application, we address the problem of reconstructing Gaussian signals with unknown power-spectrum with five different approaches: (i) separate maximum-a-posteriori power-spectrum measurement and subsequentmore » reconstruction, (ii) maximum-a-posteriori reconstruction with marginalized power-spectrum, (iii) maximizing the joint posterior of signal and spectrum, (iv) guessing the spectrum from the variance in the Wiener-filter map, and (v) renormalization flow analysis of the field-theoretical problem providing the PURE filter. In all cases, the reconstruction can be described or approximated as Wiener-filter operations with assumed signal spectra derived from the data according to the same recipe, but with differing coefficients. All of these filters, except the renormalized one, exhibit a perception threshold in case of a Jeffreys prior for the unknown spectrum. Data modes with variance below this threshold do not affect the signal reconstruction at all. Filter (iv) seems to be similar to the so-called Karhune-Loeve and Feldman-Kaiser-Peacock estimators for galaxy power spectra used in cosmology, which therefore should also exhibit a marginal perception threshold if correctly implemented. We present statistical performance tests and show that the PURE filter is superior to the others, especially if the post-Wiener-filter corrections are included or in case an additional scale-independent spectral smoothness prior can be adopted.« less

SAMSAN- MODERN NUMERICAL METHODS FOR CLASSICAL SAMPLED SYSTEM ANALYSIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Frisch, H. P.

1994-01-01

SAMSAN was developed to aid the control system analyst by providing a self consistent set of computer algorithms that support large order control system design and evaluation studies, with an emphasis placed on sampled system analysis. Control system analysts have access to a vast array of published algorithms to solve an equally large spectrum of controls related computational problems. The analyst usually spends considerable time and effort bringing these published algorithms to an integrated operational status and often finds them less general than desired. SAMSAN reduces the burden on the analyst by providing a set of algorithms that have been well tested and documented, and that can be readily integrated for solving control system problems. Algorithm selection for SAMSAN has been biased toward numerical accuracy for large order systems with computational speed and portability being considered important but not paramount. In addition to containing relevant subroutines from EISPAK for eigen-analysis and from LINPAK for the solution of linear systems and related problems, SAMSAN contains the following not so generally available capabilities: 1) Reduction of a real non-symmetric matrix to block diagonal form via a real similarity transformation matrix which is well conditioned with respect to inversion, 2) Solution of the generalized eigenvalue problem with balancing and grading, 3) Computation of all zeros of the determinant of a matrix of polynomials, 4) Matrix exponentiation and the evaluation of integrals involving the matrix exponential, with option to first block diagonalize, 5) Root locus and frequency response for single variable transfer functions in the S, Z, and W domains, 6) Several methods of computing zeros for linear systems, and 7) The ability to generate documentation "on demand". All matrix operations in the SAMSAN algorithms assume non-symmetric matrices with real double precision elements. There is no fixed size limit on any matrix in any SAMSAN algorithm; however, it is generally agreed by experienced users, and in the numerical error analysis literature, that computation with non-symmetric matrices of order greater than about 200 should be avoided or treated with extreme care. SAMSAN attempts to support the needs of application oriented analysis by providing: 1) a methodology with unlimited growth potential, 2) a methodology to insure that associated documentation is current and available "on demand", 3) a foundation of basic computational algorithms that most controls analysis procedures are based upon, 4) a set of check out and evaluation programs which demonstrate usage of the algorithms on a series of problems which are structured to expose the limits of each algorithm's applicability, and 5) capabilities which support both a priori and a posteriori error analysis for the computational algorithms provided. The SAMSAN algorithms are coded in FORTRAN 77 for batch or interactive execution and have been implemented on a DEC VAX computer under VMS 4.7. An effort was made to assure that the FORTRAN source code was portable and thus SAMSAN may be adaptable to other machine environments. The documentation is included on the distribution tape or can be purchased separately at the price below. SAMSAN version 2.0 was developed in 1982 and updated to version 3.0 in 1988.

Research on adaptive optics image restoration algorithm based on improved joint maximum a posteriori method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lijuan; Li, Yang; Wang, Junnan; Liu, Ying

2018-03-01

In this paper, we propose a point spread function (PSF) reconstruction method and joint maximum a posteriori (JMAP) estimation method for the adaptive optics image restoration. Using the JMAP method as the basic principle, we establish the joint log likelihood function of multi-frame adaptive optics (AO) images based on the image Gaussian noise models. To begin with, combining the observed conditions and AO system characteristics, a predicted PSF model for the wavefront phase effect is developed; then, we build up iterative solution formulas of the AO image based on our proposed algorithm, addressing the implementation process of multi-frame AO images joint deconvolution method. We conduct a series of experiments on simulated and real degraded AO images to evaluate our proposed algorithm. Compared with the Wiener iterative blind deconvolution (Wiener-IBD) algorithm and Richardson-Lucy IBD algorithm, our algorithm has better restoration effects including higher peak signal-to-noise ratio ( PSNR) and Laplacian sum ( LS) value than the others. The research results have a certain application values for actual AO image restoration.

Direct analysis of six antibiotics in wastewater samples using rapid high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with diode array detector: a chemometric study towards green analytical chemistry.

PubMed

Vosough, Maryam; Rashvand, Masoumeh; Esfahani, Hadi M; Kargosha, Kazem; Salemi, Amir

2015-04-01

In this work, a rapid HPLC-DAD method has been developed for the analysis of six antibiotics (amoxicillin, metronidazole, sulfamethoxazole, ofloxacine, sulfadiazine and sulfamerazine) in the sewage treatment plant influent and effluent samples. Decreasing the chromatographic run time to less than 4 min as well as lowering the cost per analysis, were achieved through direct injection of the samples into the HPLC system followed by chemometric analysis. The problem of the complete separation of the analytes from each other and/or from the matrix ingredients was resolved as a posteriori. The performance of MCR/ALS and U-PLS/RBL, as second-order algorithms, was studied and comparable results were obtained from implication of these modeling methods. It was demonstrated that the proposed methods could be used promisingly as green analytical strategies for detection and quantification of the targeted pollutants in wastewater samples while avoiding the more complicated high cost instrumentations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SU-F-J-23: Field-Of-View Expansion in Cone-Beam CT Reconstruction by Use of Prior Information

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haga, A; Magome, T; Nakano, M

Purpose: Cone-beam CT (CBCT) has become an integral part of online patient setup in an image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT). In addition, the utility of CBCT for dose calculation has actively been investigated. However, the limited size of field-of-view (FOV) and resulted CBCT image with a lack of peripheral area of patient body prevents the reliability of dose calculation. In this study, we aim to develop an FOV expanded CBCT in IGRT system to allow the dose calculation. Methods: Three lung cancer patients were selected in this study. We collected the cone-beam projection images in the CBCT-based IGRT system (X-ray volumemore » imaging unit, ELEKTA), where FOV size of the provided CBCT with these projections was 410 × 410 mm{sup 2} (normal FOV). Using these projections, CBCT with a size of 728 × 728 mm{sup 2} was reconstructed by a posteriori estimation algorithm including a prior image constrained compressed sensing (PICCS). The treatment planning CT was used as a prior image. To assess the effectiveness of FOV expansion, a dose calculation was performed on the expanded CBCT image with region-of-interest (ROI) density mapping method, and it was compared with that of treatment planning CT as well as that of CBCT reconstructed by filtered back projection (FBP) algorithm. Results: A posteriori estimation algorithm with PICCS clearly visualized an area outside normal FOV, whereas the FBP algorithm yielded severe streak artifacts outside normal FOV due to under-sampling. The dose calculation result using the expanded CBCT agreed with that using treatment planning CT very well; a maximum dose difference was 1.3% for gross tumor volumes. Conclusion: With a posteriori estimation algorithm, FOV in CBCT can be expanded. Dose comparison results suggested that the use of expanded CBCTs is acceptable for dose calculation in adaptive radiation therapy. This study has been supported by KAKENHI (15K08691).« less

Evaluating a 3-D transport model of atmospheric CO2 using ground-based, aircraft, and space-borne data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, L.; Palmer, P. I.; Yang, Y.; Yantosca, R. M.; Kawa, S. R.; Paris, J.-D.; Matsueda, H.; Machida, T.

2010-07-01

We evaluate the GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport model (v8-02-01) of CO2 over 2003-2006, driven by GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 meteorology from the NASA Goddard Global Modelling and Assimilation Office, using surface, aircraft and space-borne concentration measurements of CO2. We use an established ensemble Kalman filter to estimate a posteriori biospheric+biomass burning (BS+BB) and oceanic (OC) CO2 fluxes from 22 geographical regions, following the TransCom 3 protocol, using boundary layer CO2 data from a subset of GLOBALVIEW surface sites. Global annual net BS+BB+OC CO2 fluxes over 2004-2006 for GEOS-4 (GEOS-5) meteorology are -4.4±0.9 (-4.2±0.9), -3.9±0.9 (-4.5±0.9), and -5.2±0.9 (-4.9±0.9) Pg C yr-1 , respectively. The regional a posteriori fluxes are broadly consistent in the sign and magnitude of the TransCom-3 study for 1992-1996, but we find larger net sinks over northern and southern continents. We find large departures from our a priori over Europe during summer 2003, over temperate Eurasia during 2004, and over North America during 2005, reflecting an incomplete description of terrestrial carbon dynamics. We find GEOS-4 (GEOS-5) a posteriori CO2 concentrations reproduce the observed surface trend of 1.91-2.43 ppm yr-1, depending on latitude, within 0.15 ppm yr-1 (0.2 ppm yr-1) and the seasonal cycle within 0.2 ppm (0.2 ppm) at all latitudes. We find the a posteriori model reproduces the aircraft vertical profile measurements of CO2 over North America and Siberia generally within 1.5 ppm in the free and upper troposphere but can be biased by up to 4-5 ppm in the boundary layer at the start and end of the growing season. The model has a small negative bias in the free troposphere CO2 trend (1.95-2.19 ppm yr-1) compared to AIRS data which has a trend of 2.21-2.63 ppm yr-1 during 2004-2006, consistent with surface data. Model CO2 concentrations in the upper troposphere, evaluated using CONTRAIL (Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner) aircraft measurements, reproduce the magnitude and phase of the seasonal cycle of CO2 in both hemispheres. We generally find that the GEOS meteorology reproduces much of the observed tropospheric CO2 variability, suggesting that these meteorological fields will help make significant progress in understanding carbon fluxes as more data become available.

Measurement of residual chemical shift anisotropies in compressed polymethylmethacrylate gels. Automatic compensation of gel isotropic shift contribution.

PubMed

Hallwass, Fernando; Teles, Rubens R; Hellemann, Erich; Griesinger, Christian; Gil, Roberto R; Navarro-Vázquez, Armando

2018-05-01

Mechanical compression of polymer gels provides a simple way for the measurement of residual chemical shift anisotropies, which then can be employed, on its own, or in combination with residual dipolar couplings, for structural elucidation purposes. Residual chemical shift anisotropies measured using compression devices needed a posteriori correction to account for the increase of the polymer to solvent ratio inside the swollen gel. This correction has been cast before in terms of a single-free parameter which, as shown here, can be simultaneously optimized along with the components of the alignment tensor while still retaining discriminating power of the different relative configurations as illustrated in the stereochemical analysis of α-santonin and 10-epi-8-deoxycumambrin B. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effects of calibration methods on quantitative material decomposition in photon-counting spectral computed tomography using a maximum a posteriori estimator.

PubMed

Curtis, Tyler E; Roeder, Ryan K

2017-10-01

Advances in photon-counting detectors have enabled quantitative material decomposition using multi-energy or spectral computed tomography (CT). Supervised methods for material decomposition utilize an estimated attenuation for each material of interest at each photon energy level, which must be calibrated based upon calculated or measured values for known compositions. Measurements using a calibration phantom can advantageously account for system-specific noise, but the effect of calibration methods on the material basis matrix and subsequent quantitative material decomposition has not been experimentally investigated. Therefore, the objective of this study was to investigate the influence of the range and number of contrast agent concentrations within a modular calibration phantom on the accuracy of quantitative material decomposition in the image domain. Gadolinium was chosen as a model contrast agent in imaging phantoms, which also contained bone tissue and water as negative controls. The maximum gadolinium concentration (30, 60, and 90 mM) and total number of concentrations (2, 4, and 7) were independently varied to systematically investigate effects of the material basis matrix and scaling factor calibration on the quantitative (root mean squared error, RMSE) and spatial (sensitivity and specificity) accuracy of material decomposition. Images of calibration and sample phantoms were acquired using a commercially available photon-counting spectral micro-CT system with five energy bins selected to normalize photon counts and leverage the contrast agent k-edge. Material decomposition of gadolinium, calcium, and water was performed for each calibration method using a maximum a posteriori estimator. Both the quantitative and spatial accuracy of material decomposition were most improved by using an increased maximum gadolinium concentration (range) in the basis matrix calibration; the effects of using a greater number of concentrations were relatively small in magnitude by comparison. The material basis matrix calibration was more sensitive to changes in the calibration methods than the scaling factor calibration. The material basis matrix calibration significantly influenced both the quantitative and spatial accuracy of material decomposition, while the scaling factor calibration influenced quantitative but not spatial accuracy. Importantly, the median RMSE of material decomposition was as low as ~1.5 mM (~0.24 mg/mL gadolinium), which was similar in magnitude to that measured by optical spectroscopy on the same samples. The accuracy of quantitative material decomposition in photon-counting spectral CT was significantly influenced by calibration methods which must therefore be carefully considered for the intended diagnostic imaging application. © 2017 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

Methods and Issues for the Combined Use of Integral Experiments and Covariance Data: Results of a NEA International Collaborative Study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Palmiotti, Giuseppe; Salvatores, Massimo

2014-04-01

The Working Party on International Nuclear Data Evaluation Cooperation (WPEC) of the Nuclear Science Committee under the Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA/OECD) established a Subgroup (called “Subgroup 33”) in 2009 on “Methods and issues for the combined use of integral experiments and covariance data.” The first stage was devoted to producing the description of different adjustment methodologies and assessing their merits. A detailed document related to this first stage has been issued. Nine leading organizations (often with a long and recognized expertise in the field) have contributed: ANL, CEA, INL, IPPE, JAEA, JSI, NRG, IRSN and ORNL. In the second stagemore » a practical benchmark exercise was defined in order to test the reliability of the nuclear data adjustment methodology. A comparison of the results obtained by the participants and major lessons learned in the exercise are discussed in the present paper that summarizes individual contributions which often include several original developments not reported separately. The paper provides the analysis of the most important results of the adjustment of the main nuclear data of 11 major isotopes in a 33-group energy structure. This benchmark exercise was based on a set of 20 well defined integral parameters from 7 fast assembly experiments. The exercise showed that using a common shared set of integral experiments but different starting evaluated libraries and/or different covariance matrices, there is a good convergence of trends for adjustments. Moreover, a significant reduction of the original uncertainties is often observed. Using the a–posteriori covariance data, there is a strong reduction of the uncertainties of integral parameters for reference reactor designs, mainly due to the new correlations in the a–posteriori covariance matrix. Furthermore, criteria have been proposed and applied to verify the consistency of differential and integral data used in the adjustment. Finally, recommendations are given for an appropriate use of sensitivity analysis methods and indications for future work are provided.« less

A Wearable Inertial Measurement Unit for Long-Term Monitoring in the Dependency Care Area

PubMed Central

Rodríguez-Martín, Daniel; Pérez-López, Carlos; Samà, Albert; Cabestany, Joan; Català, Andreu

2013-01-01

Human movement analysis is a field of wide interest since it enables the assessment of a large variety of variables related to quality of life. Human movement can be accurately evaluated through Inertial Measurement Units (IMU), which are wearable and comfortable devices with long battery life. The IMU's movement signals might be, on the one hand, stored in a digital support, in which an analysis is performed a posteriori. On the other hand, the signal analysis might take place in the same IMU at the same time as the signal acquisition through online classifiers. The new sensor system presented in this paper is designed for both collecting movement signals and analyzing them in real-time. This system is a flexible platform useful for collecting data via a triaxial accelerometer, a gyroscope and a magnetometer, with the possibility to incorporate other information sources in real-time. A μSD card can store all inertial data and a Bluetooth module is able to send information to other external devices and receive data from other sources. The system presented is being used in the real-time detection and analysis of Parkinson's disease symptoms, in gait analysis, and in a fall detection system. PMID:24145917

A wearable inertial measurement unit for long-term monitoring in the dependency care area.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Martín, Daniel; Pérez-López, Carlos; Samà, Albert; Cabestany, Joan; Català, Andreu

2013-10-18

Human movement analysis is a field of wide interest since it enables the assessment of a large variety of variables related to quality of life. Human movement can be accurately evaluated through Inertial Measurement Units (IMU), which are wearable and comfortable devices with long battery life. The IMU's movement signals might be, on the one hand, stored in a digital support, in which an analysis is performed a posteriori. On the other hand, the signal analysis might take place in the same IMU at the same time as the signal acquisition through online classifiers. The new sensor system presented in this paper is designed for both collecting movement signals and analyzing them in real-time. This system is a flexible platform useful for collecting data via a triaxial accelerometer, a gyroscope and a magnetometer, with the possibility to incorporate other information sources in real-time. A µSD card can store all inertial data and a Bluetooth module is able to send information to other external devices and receive data from other sources. The system presented is being used in the real-time detection and analysis of Parkinson's disease symptoms, in gait analysis, and in a fall detection system.

Probabilistic Common Spatial Patterns for Multichannel EEG Analysis

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhe; Gao, Xiaorong; Li, Yuanqing; Brown, Emery N.; Gao, Shangkai

2015-01-01

Common spatial patterns (CSP) is a well-known spatial filtering algorithm for multichannel electroencephalogram (EEG) analysis. In this paper, we cast the CSP algorithm in a probabilistic modeling setting. Specifically, probabilistic CSP (P-CSP) is proposed as a generic EEG spatio-temporal modeling framework that subsumes the CSP and regularized CSP algorithms. The proposed framework enables us to resolve the overfitting issue of CSP in a principled manner. We derive statistical inference algorithms that can alleviate the issue of local optima. In particular, an efficient algorithm based on eigendecomposition is developed for maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation in the case of isotropic noise. For more general cases, a variational algorithm is developed for group-wise sparse Bayesian learning for the P-CSP model and for automatically determining the model size. The two proposed algorithms are validated on a simulated data set. Their practical efficacy is also demonstrated by successful applications to single-trial classifications of three motor imagery EEG data sets and by the spatio-temporal pattern analysis of one EEG data set recorded in a Stroop color naming task. PMID:26005228

Using the Coefficient of Confidence to Make the Philosophical Switch from a Posteriori to a Priori Inferential Statistics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trafimow, David

2017-01-01

There has been much controversy over the null hypothesis significance testing procedure, with much of the criticism centered on the problem of inverse inference. Specifically, p gives the probability of the finding (or one more extreme) given the null hypothesis, whereas the null hypothesis significance testing procedure involves drawing a…

Accuracy and Variability of Item Parameter Estimates from Marginal Maximum a Posteriori Estimation and Bayesian Inference via Gibbs Samplers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wu, Yi-Fang

2015-01-01

Item response theory (IRT) uses a family of statistical models for estimating stable characteristics of items and examinees and defining how these characteristics interact in describing item and test performance. With a focus on the three-parameter logistic IRT (Birnbaum, 1968; Lord, 1980) model, the current study examines the accuracy and…

Software requirements for the study of contextual classifiers and label imperfections

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chittineni, C. B.

1979-01-01

The software requirements for the study of contextual classifiers and imperfections in the labels are presented. In particular, the requirements are described for updating the posteriori probability of the picture element under consideration using information from its local neighborhood, designing the Fisher classifier, and other required routines. Only the necessary equations are given for the development of software.

Graph edit distance from spectral seriation.

PubMed

Robles-Kelly, Antonio; Hancock, Edwin R

2005-03-01

This paper is concerned with computing graph edit distance. One of the criticisms that can be leveled at existing methods for computing graph edit distance is that they lack some of the formality and rigor of the computation of string edit distance. Hence, our aim is to convert graphs to string sequences so that string matching techniques can be used. To do this, we use a graph spectral seriation method to convert the adjacency matrix into a string or sequence order. We show how the serial ordering can be established using the leading eigenvector of the graph adjacency matrix. We pose the problem of graph-matching as a maximum a posteriori probability (MAP) alignment of the seriation sequences for pairs of graphs. This treatment leads to an expression in which the edit cost is the negative logarithm of the a posteriori sequence alignment probability. We compute the edit distance by finding the sequence of string edit operations which minimizes the cost of the path traversing the edit lattice. The edit costs are determined by the components of the leading eigenvectors of the adjacency matrix and by the edge densities of the graphs being matched. We demonstrate the utility of the edit distance on a number of graph clustering problems.

Maximum a posteriori classification of multifrequency, multilook, synthetic aperture radar intensity data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rignot, E.; Chellappa, R.

1993-01-01

We present a maximum a posteriori (MAP) classifier for classifying multifrequency, multilook, single polarization SAR intensity data into regions or ensembles of pixels of homogeneous and similar radar backscatter characteristics. A model for the prior joint distribution of the multifrequency SAR intensity data is combined with a Markov random field for representing the interactions between region labels to obtain an expression for the posterior distribution of the region labels given the multifrequency SAR observations. The maximization of the posterior distribution yields Bayes's optimum region labeling or classification of the SAR data or its MAP estimate. The performance of the MAP classifier is evaluated by using computer-simulated multilook SAR intensity data as a function of the parameters in the classification process. Multilook SAR intensity data are shown to yield higher classification accuracies than one-look SAR complex amplitude data. The MAP classifier is extended to the case in which the radar backscatter from the remotely sensed surface varies within the SAR image because of incidence angle effects. The results obtained illustrate the practicality of the method for combining SAR intensity observations acquired at two different frequencies and for improving classification accuracy of SAR data.

Person authentication using brainwaves (EEG) and maximum a posteriori model adaptation.

PubMed

Marcel, Sébastien; Millán, José Del R

2007-04-01

In this paper, we investigate the use of brain activity for person authentication. It has been shown in previous studies that the brain-wave pattern of every individual is unique and that the electroencephalogram (EEG) can be used for biometric identification. EEG-based biometry is an emerging research topic and we believe that it may open new research directions and applications in the future. However, very little work has been done in this area and was focusing mainly on person identification but not on person authentication. Person authentication aims to accept or to reject a person claiming an identity, i.e., comparing a biometric data to one template, while the goal of person identification is to match the biometric data against all the records in a database. We propose the use of a statistical framework based on Gaussian Mixture Models and Maximum A Posteriori model adaptation, successfully applied to speaker and face authentication, which can deal with only one training session. We perform intensive experimental simulations using several strict train/test protocols to show the potential of our method. We also show that there are some mental tasks that are more appropriate for person authentication than others.

Information criteria for quantifying loss of reversibility in parallelized KMC

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gourgoulias, Konstantinos, E-mail: gourgoul@math.umass.edu; Katsoulakis, Markos A., E-mail: markos@math.umass.edu; Rey-Bellet, Luc, E-mail: luc@math.umass.edu

Parallel Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) is a potent tool to simulate stochastic particle systems efficiently. However, despite literature on quantifying domain decomposition errors of the particle system for this class of algorithms in the short and in the long time regime, no study yet explores and quantifies the loss of time-reversibility in Parallel KMC. Inspired by concepts from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, we propose the entropy production per unit time, or entropy production rate, given in terms of an observable and a corresponding estimator, as a metric that quantifies the loss of reversibility. Typically, this is a quantity that cannot bemore » computed explicitly for Parallel KMC, which is why we develop a posteriori estimators that have good scaling properties with respect to the size of the system. Through these estimators, we can connect the different parameters of the scheme, such as the communication time step of the parallelization, the choice of the domain decomposition, and the computational schedule, with its performance in controlling the loss of reversibility. From this point of view, the entropy production rate can be seen both as an information criterion to compare the reversibility of different parallel schemes and as a tool to diagnose reversibility issues with a particular scheme. As a demonstration, we use Sandia Lab's SPPARKS software to compare different parallelization schemes and different domain (lattice) decompositions.« less

Sensor Selection for Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Rinehart, Aidan W.

2015-01-01

This paper presents analytical techniques for aiding system designers in making aircraft engine health management sensor selection decisions. The presented techniques, which are based on linear estimation and probability theory, are tailored for gas turbine engine performance estimation and gas path fault diagnostics applications. They enable quantification of the performance estimation and diagnostic accuracy offered by different candidate sensor suites. For performance estimation, sensor selection metrics are presented for two types of estimators including a Kalman filter and a maximum a posteriori estimator. For each type of performance estimator, sensor selection is based on minimizing the theoretical sum of squared estimation errors in health parameters representing performance deterioration in the major rotating modules of the engine. For gas path fault diagnostics, the sensor selection metric is set up to maximize correct classification rate for a diagnostic strategy that performs fault classification by identifying the fault type that most closely matches the observed measurement signature in a weighted least squares sense. Results from the application of the sensor selection metrics to a linear engine model are presented and discussed. Given a baseline sensor suite and a candidate list of optional sensors, an exhaustive search is performed to determine the optimal sensor suites for performance estimation and fault diagnostics. For any given sensor suite, Monte Carlo simulation results are found to exhibit good agreement with theoretical predictions of estimation and diagnostic accuracies.

Sensor Selection for Aircraft Engine Performance Estimation and Gas Path Fault Diagnostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Rinehart, Aidan W.

2016-01-01

This paper presents analytical techniques for aiding system designers in making aircraft engine health management sensor selection decisions. The presented techniques, which are based on linear estimation and probability theory, are tailored for gas turbine engine performance estimation and gas path fault diagnostics applications. They enable quantification of the performance estimation and diagnostic accuracy offered by different candidate sensor suites. For performance estimation, sensor selection metrics are presented for two types of estimators including a Kalman filter and a maximum a posteriori estimator. For each type of performance estimator, sensor selection is based on minimizing the theoretical sum of squared estimation errors in health parameters representing performance deterioration in the major rotating modules of the engine. For gas path fault diagnostics, the sensor selection metric is set up to maximize correct classification rate for a diagnostic strategy that performs fault classification by identifying the fault type that most closely matches the observed measurement signature in a weighted least squares sense. Results from the application of the sensor selection metrics to a linear engine model are presented and discussed. Given a baseline sensor suite and a candidate list of optional sensors, an exhaustive search is performed to determine the optimal sensor suites for performance estimation and fault diagnostics. For any given sensor suite, Monte Carlo simulation results are found to exhibit good agreement with theoretical predictions of estimation and diagnostic accuracies.

Protein-ligand binding free energy estimation using molecular mechanics and continuum electrostatics. Application to HIV-1 protease inhibitors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zoete, V.; Michielin, O.; Karplus, M.

2003-12-01

A method is proposed for the estimation of absolute binding free energy of interaction between proteins and ligands. Conformational sampling of the protein-ligand complex is performed by molecular dynamics (MD) in vacuo and the solvent effect is calculated a posteriori by solving the Poisson or the Poisson-Boltzmann equation for selected frames of the trajectory. The binding free energy is written as a linear combination of the buried surface upon complexation, SAS bur, the electrostatic interaction energy between the ligand and the protein, Eelec, and the difference of the solvation free energies of the complex and the isolated ligand and protein, ΔGsolv. The method uses the buried surface upon complexation to account for the non-polar contribution to the binding free energy because it is less sensitive to the details of the structure than the van der Waals interaction energy. The parameters of the method are developed for a training set of 16 HIV-1 protease-inhibitor complexes of known 3D structure. A correlation coefficient of 0.91 was obtained with an unsigned mean error of 0.8 kcal/mol. When applied to a set of 25 HIV-1 protease-inhibitor complexes of unknown 3D structures, the method provides a satisfactory correlation between the calculated binding free energy and the experimental pIC 50 without reparametrization.

Information criteria for quantifying loss of reversibility in parallelized KMC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gourgoulias, Konstantinos; Katsoulakis, Markos A.; Rey-Bellet, Luc

2017-01-01

Parallel Kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) is a potent tool to simulate stochastic particle systems efficiently. However, despite literature on quantifying domain decomposition errors of the particle system for this class of algorithms in the short and in the long time regime, no study yet explores and quantifies the loss of time-reversibility in Parallel KMC. Inspired by concepts from non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, we propose the entropy production per unit time, or entropy production rate, given in terms of an observable and a corresponding estimator, as a metric that quantifies the loss of reversibility. Typically, this is a quantity that cannot be computed explicitly for Parallel KMC, which is why we develop a posteriori estimators that have good scaling properties with respect to the size of the system. Through these estimators, we can connect the different parameters of the scheme, such as the communication time step of the parallelization, the choice of the domain decomposition, and the computational schedule, with its performance in controlling the loss of reversibility. From this point of view, the entropy production rate can be seen both as an information criterion to compare the reversibility of different parallel schemes and as a tool to diagnose reversibility issues with a particular scheme. As a demonstration, we use Sandia Lab's SPPARKS software to compare different parallelization schemes and different domain (lattice) decompositions.

On the design of turbo codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Divsalar, D.; Pollara, F.

1995-01-01

In this article, we design new turbo codes that can achieve near-Shannon-limit performance. The design criterion for random interleavers is based on maximizing the effective free distance of the turbo code, i.e., the minimum output weight of codewords due to weight-2 input sequences. An upper bound on the effective free distance of a turbo code is derived. This upper bound can be achieved if the feedback connection of convolutional codes uses primitive polynomials. We review multiple turbo codes (parallel concatenation of q convolutional codes), which increase the so-called 'interleaving gain' as q and the interleaver size increase, and a suitable decoder structure derived from an approximation to the maximum a posteriori probability decision rule. We develop new rate 1/3, 2/3, 3/4, and 4/5 constituent codes to be used in the turbo encoder structure. These codes, for from 2 to 32 states, are designed by using primitive polynomials. The resulting turbo codes have rates b/n (b = 1, 2, 3, 4 and n = 2, 3, 4, 5, 6), and include random interleavers for better asymptotic performance. These codes are suitable for deep-space communications with low throughput and for near-Earth communications where high throughput is desirable. The performance of these codes is within 1 dB of the Shannon limit at a bit-error rate of 10(exp -6) for throughputs from 1/15 up to 4 bits/s/Hz.

Characterizing the Retrieval of Cloud Optical Thickness and Droplet Effective Radius to Overlying Aerosols Using a General Inverse Theory Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coddington, O.; Pilewskie, P.; Schmidt, S.

2013-12-01

The upwelling shortwave irradiance measured by the airborne Solar Spectral Flux Radiometer (SSFR) flying above a cloud and aerosol layer is influenced by the properties of the cloud and aerosol particles below, just as would the radiance measured from satellite. Unlike satellite measurements, those from aircraft provide the unique capability to fly a lower-level leg above the cloud, yet below the aerosol layer, to characterize the extinction of the aerosol layer and account for its impact on the measured cloud albedo. Previous work [Coddington et al., 2010] capitalized on this opportunity to test the effects of aerosol particles (or more appropriately, the effects of neglecting aerosols in forward modeling calculations) on cloud retrievals using data obtained during the Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment/Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation of anthropogenic pollution (INTEX-A/ITCT) study. This work showed aerosols can cause a systematic bias in the cloud retrieval and that such a bias would need to be distinguished from a true aerosol indirect effect (i.e. the brightening of a cloud due to aerosol effects on cloud microphysics) as theorized by Haywood et al., [2004]. The effects of aerosols on clouds are typically neglected in forward modeling calculations because their pervasiveness, variable microphysical properties, loading, and lifetimes makes forward modeling calculations under all possible combinations completely impractical. Using a general inverse theory technique, which propagates separate contributions from measurement and forward modeling errors into probability distributions of retrieved cloud optical thickness and droplet effective radius, we have demonstrated how the aerosol presence can be introduced as a spectral systematic error in the distributions of the forward modeling solutions. The resultant uncertainty and bias in cloud properties induced by the aerosols is identified by the shape and peak of the posteriori retrieval distributions. In this work, we apply this general inverse theory approach to extend our analysis of the spectrally-dependent impacts of overlying aerosols on cloud properties over a broad range in cloud optical thickness and droplet effective radius. We investigate the relative impacts of this error source and compare and contrast results to biases and uncertainties in cloud properties induced by varying surface conditions (ocean, land, snow). We perform the analysis for two different measurement accuracies (3% and 0.3%) that are typical of current passive imagers, such as the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) [Platnick et al., 2003], and that are expected for future passive imagers, such as the HyperSpectral Imager for Climate Science (HySICS) [Kopp et al., 2010]. Coddington, O., P. Pilewskie, et al., 2010, J. Geophys. Res., 115, doi: 10.1029/2009JD012829. Haywood, J. M., S. R. Osborne, and S. J. Abel, 2004, Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 130, 779-800. Kopp, G., et al., 2010, Hyperspectral Imagery Radiometry Improvements for Visible and Near-Infrared Climate Studies, paper presented at 2010 Earth Science Technology Forum, Arlington, VA, USA. Platnick, S., et al., 2003, IEEE Trans. Geosci. Remote Sens., 41(2), 459- 473.

Analysis of Highly-Resolved Simulations of 2-D Humps Toward Improvement of Second-Moment Closures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jeyapaul, Elbert; Rumsey Christopher

2013-01-01

Fully resolved simulation data of flow separation over 2-D humps has been used to analyze the modeling terms in second-moment closures of the Reynolds-averaged Navier- Stokes equations. Existing models for the pressure-strain and dissipation terms have been analyzed using a priori calculations. All pressure-strain models are incorrect in the high-strain region near separation, although a better match is observed downstream, well into the separated-flow region. Near-wall inhomogeneity causes pressure-strain models to predict incorrect signs for the normal components close to the wall. In a posteriori computations, full Reynolds stress and explicit algebraic Reynolds stress models predict the separation point with varying degrees of success. However, as with one- and two-equation models, the separation bubble size is invariably over-predicted.

Technical Note: Introduction of variance component analysis to setup error analysis in radiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matsuo, Yukinori, E-mail: ymatsuo@kuhp.kyoto-u.ac.

Purpose: The purpose of this technical note is to introduce variance component analysis to the estimation of systematic and random components in setup error of radiotherapy. Methods: Balanced data according to the one-factor random effect model were assumed. Results: Analysis-of-variance (ANOVA)-based computation was applied to estimate the values and their confidence intervals (CIs) for systematic and random errors and the population mean of setup errors. The conventional method overestimates systematic error, especially in hypofractionated settings. The CI for systematic error becomes much wider than that for random error. The ANOVA-based estimation can be extended to a multifactor model considering multiplemore » causes of setup errors (e.g., interpatient, interfraction, and intrafraction). Conclusions: Variance component analysis may lead to novel applications to setup error analysis in radiotherapy.« less

Adaptive Mesh Refinement for Microelectronic Device Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cwik, Tom; Lou, John; Norton, Charles

1999-01-01

Finite element and finite volume methods are used in a variety of design simulations when it is necessary to compute fields throughout regions that contain varying materials or geometry. Convergence of the simulation can be assessed by uniformly increasing the mesh density until an observable quantity stabilizes. Depending on the electrical size of the problem, uniform refinement of the mesh may be computationally infeasible due to memory limitations. Similarly, depending on the geometric complexity of the object being modeled, uniform refinement can be inefficient since regions that do not need refinement add to the computational expense. In either case, convergence to the correct (measured) solution is not guaranteed. Adaptive mesh refinement methods attempt to selectively refine the region of the mesh that is estimated to contain proportionally higher solution errors. The refinement may be obtained by decreasing the element size (h-refinement), by increasing the order of the element (p-refinement) or by a combination of the two (h-p refinement). A successful adaptive strategy refines the mesh to produce an accurate solution measured against the correct fields without undue computational expense. This is accomplished by the use of a) reliable a posteriori error estimates, b) hierarchal elements, and c) automatic adaptive mesh generation. Adaptive methods are also useful when problems with multi-scale field variations are encountered. These occur in active electronic devices that have thin doped layers and also when mixed physics is used in the calculation. The mesh needs to be fine at and near the thin layer to capture rapid field or charge variations, but can coarsen away from these layers where field variations smoothen and charge densities are uniform. This poster will present an adaptive mesh refinement package that runs on parallel computers and is applied to specific microelectronic device simulations. Passive sensors that operate in the infrared portion of the spectrum as well as active device simulations that model charge transport and Maxwell's equations will be presented.

Mass-conservative reconstruction of Galerkin velocity fields for transport simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scudeler, C.; Putti, M.; Paniconi, C.

2016-08-01

Accurate calculation of mass-conservative velocity fields from numerical solutions of Richards' equation is central to reliable surface-subsurface flow and transport modeling, for example in long-term tracer simulations to determine catchment residence time distributions. In this study we assess the performance of a local Larson-Niklasson (LN) post-processing procedure for reconstructing mass-conservative velocities from a linear (P1) Galerkin finite element solution of Richards' equation. This approach, originally proposed for a-posteriori error estimation, modifies the standard finite element velocities by imposing local conservation on element patches. The resulting reconstructed flow field is characterized by continuous fluxes on element edges that can be efficiently used to drive a second order finite volume advective transport model. Through a series of tests of increasing complexity that compare results from the LN scheme to those using velocity fields derived directly from the P1 Galerkin solution, we show that a locally mass-conservative velocity field is necessary to obtain accurate transport results. We also show that the accuracy of the LN reconstruction procedure is comparable to that of the inherently conservative mixed finite element approach, taken as a reference solution, but that the LN scheme has much lower computational costs. The numerical tests examine steady and unsteady, saturated and variably saturated, and homogeneous and heterogeneous cases along with initial and boundary conditions that include dry soil infiltration, alternating solute and water injection, and seepage face outflow. Typical problems that arise with velocities derived from P1 Galerkin solutions include outgoing solute flux from no-flow boundaries, solute entrapment in zones of low hydraulic conductivity, and occurrences of anomalous sources and sinks. In addition to inducing significant mass balance errors, such manifestations often lead to oscillations in concentration values that can moreover cause the numerical solution to explode. These problems do not occur when using LN post-processed velocities.

Bayesian inversion of a CRN depth profile to infer Quaternary erosion of the northwestern Campine Plateau (NE Belgium)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laloy, Eric; Beerten, Koen; Vanacker, Veerle; Christl, Marcus; Rogiers, Bart; Wouters, Laurent

2017-07-01

The rate at which low-lying sandy areas in temperate regions, such as the Campine Plateau (NE Belgium), have been eroding during the Quaternary is a matter of debate. Current knowledge on the average pace of landscape evolution in the Campine area is largely based on geological inferences and modern analogies. We performed a Bayesian inversion of an in situ-produced 10Be concentration depth profile to infer the average long-term erosion rate together with two other parameters: the surface exposure age and the inherited 10Be concentration. Compared to the latest advances in probabilistic inversion of cosmogenic radionuclide (CRN) data, our approach has the following two innovative components: it (1) uses Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling and (2) accounts (under certain assumptions) for the contribution of model errors to posterior uncertainty. To investigate to what extent our approach differs from the state of the art in practice, a comparison against the Bayesian inversion method implemented in the CRONUScalc program is made. Both approaches identify similar maximum a posteriori (MAP) parameter values, but posterior parameter and predictive uncertainty derived using the method taken in CRONUScalc is moderately underestimated. A simple way for producing more consistent uncertainty estimates with the CRONUScalc-like method in the presence of model errors is therefore suggested. Our inferred erosion rate of 39 ± 8. 9 mm kyr-1 (1σ) is relatively large in comparison with landforms that erode under comparable (paleo-)climates elsewhere in the world. We evaluate this value in the light of the erodibility of the substrate and sudden base level lowering during the Middle Pleistocene. A denser sampling scheme of a two-nuclide concentration depth profile would allow for better inferred erosion rate resolution, and including more uncertain parameters in the MCMC inversion.

Variationally consistent discretization schemes and numerical algorithms for contact problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wohlmuth, Barbara

We consider variationally consistent discretization schemes for mechanical contact problems. Most of the results can also be applied to other variational inequalities, such as those for phase transition problems in porous media, for plasticity or for option pricing applications from finance. The starting point is to weakly incorporate the constraint into the setting and to reformulate the inequality in the displacement in terms of a saddle-point problem. Here, the Lagrange multiplier represents the surface forces, and the constraints are restricted to the boundary of the simulation domain. Having a uniform inf-sup bound, one can then establish optimal low-order a priori convergence rates for the discretization error in the primal and dual variables. In addition to the abstract framework of linear saddle-point theory, complementarity terms have to be taken into account. The resulting inequality system is solved by rewriting it equivalently by means of the non-linear complementarity function as a system of equations. Although it is not differentiable in the classical sense, semi-smooth Newton methods, yielding super-linear convergence rates, can be applied and easily implemented in terms of a primal-dual active set strategy. Quite often the solution of contact problems has a low regularity, and the efficiency of the approach can be improved by using adaptive refinement techniques. Different standard types, such as residual- and equilibrated-based a posteriori error estimators, can be designed based on the interpretation of the dual variable as Neumann boundary condition. For the fully dynamic setting it is of interest to apply energy-preserving time-integration schemes. However, the differential algebraic character of the system can result in high oscillations if standard methods are applied. A possible remedy is to modify the fully discretized system by a local redistribution of the mass. Numerical results in two and three dimensions illustrate the wide range of possible applications and show the performance of the space discretization scheme, non-linear solver, adaptive refinement process and time integration.

Spectroscopic properties of Arx-Zn and Arx-Ag+ (x = 1,2) van der Waals complexes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oyedepo, Gbenga A.; Peterson, Charles; Schoendorff, George; Wilson, Angela K.

2013-03-01

Potential energy curves have been constructed using coupled cluster with singles, doubles, and perturbative triple excitations (CCSD(T)) in combination with all-electron and pseudopotential-based multiply augmented correlation consistent basis sets [m-aug-cc-pV(n + d)Z; m = singly, doubly, triply, n = D,T,Q,5]. The effect of basis set superposition error on the spectroscopic properties of Ar-Zn, Ar2-Zn, Ar-Ag+, and Ar2-Ag+ van der Waals complexes was examined. The diffuse functions of the doubly and triply augmented basis sets have been constructed using the even-tempered expansion. The a posteriori counterpoise scheme of Boys and Bernardi and its generalized variant by Valiron and Mayer has been utilized to correct for basis set superposition error (BSSE) in the calculated spectroscopic properties for diatomic and triatomic species. It is found that even at the extrapolated complete basis set limit for the energetic properties, the pseudopotential-based calculations still suffer from significant BSSE effects unlike the all-electron basis sets. This indicates that the quality of the approximations used in the design of pseudopotentials could have major impact on a seemingly valence-exclusive effect like BSSE. We confirm the experimentally determined equilibrium internuclear distance (re), binding energy (De), harmonic vibrational frequency (ωe), and C1Π ← X1Σ transition energy for ArZn and also predict the spectroscopic properties for the low-lying excited states of linear Ar2-Zn (X1Σg, 3Πg, 1Πg), Ar-Ag+ (X1Σ, 3Σ, 3Π, 3Δ, 1Σ, 1Π, 1Δ), and Ar2-Ag+ (X1Σg, 3Σg, 3Πg, 3Δg, 1Σg, 1Πg, 1Δg) complexes, using the CCSD(T) and MR-CISD + Q methods, to aid in their experimental characterizations.

The Influence of Observation Errors on Analysis Error and Forecast Skill Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prive, N. C.; Errico, R. M.; Tai, K.-S.

2013-01-01

The Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework is used to explore the response of analysis error and forecast skill to observation quality. In an OSSE, synthetic observations may be created that have much smaller error than real observations, and precisely quantified error may be applied to these synthetic observations. Three experiments are performed in which synthetic observations with magnitudes of applied observation error that vary from zero to twice the estimated realistic error are ingested into the Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation for a one-month period representing July. The analysis increment and observation innovation are strongly impacted by observation error, with much larger variances for increased observation error. The analysis quality is degraded by increased observation error, but the change in root-mean-square error of the analysis state is small relative to the total analysis error. Surprisingly, in the 120 hour forecast increased observation error only yields a slight decline in forecast skill in the extratropics, and no discernable degradation of forecast skill in the tropics.

Improved identification of the solution space of aerosol microphysical properties derived from the inversion of profiles of lidar optical data, part 1: theory.

PubMed

Kolgotin, Alexei; Müller, Detlef; Chemyakin, Eduard; Romanov, Anton

2016-12-01

Multiwavelength Raman/high spectral resolution lidars that measure backscatter coefficients at 355, 532, and 1064 nm and extinction coefficients at 355 and 532 nm can be used for the retrieval of particle microphysical parameters, such as effective and mean radius, number, surface-area and volume concentrations, and complex refractive index, from inversion algorithms. In this study, we carry out a correlation analysis in order to investigate the degree of dependence that may exist between the optical data taken with lidar and the underlying microphysical parameters. We also investigate if the correlation properties identified in our study can be used as a priori or a posteriori constraints for our inversion scheme so that the inversion results can be improved. We made the simplifying assumption of error-free optical data in order to find out what correlations exist in the best case situation. Clearly, for practical applications, erroneous data need to be considered too. On the basis of simulations with synthetic optical data, we find the following results, which hold true for arbitrary particle size distributions, i.e., regardless of the modality or the shape of the size distribution function: surface-area concentrations and extinction coefficients are linearly correlated with a correlation coefficient above 0.99. We also find a correlation coefficient above 0.99 for the extinction coefficient versus (1) the ratio of the volume concentration to effective radius and (2) the product of the number concentration times the sum of the squares of the mean radius and standard deviation of the investigated particle size distributions. Besides that, we find that for particles of any mode fraction of the particle size distribution, the complex refractive index is uniquely defined by extinction- and backscatter-related Ångström exponents, lidar ratios at two wavelengths, and an effective radius.

An adaptive sparse-grid high-order stochastic collocation method for Bayesian inference in groundwater reactive transport modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Guannan; Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Gunzburger, Max; Webster, Clayton

2013-10-01

Bayesian analysis has become vital to uncertainty quantification in groundwater modeling, but its application has been hindered by the computational cost associated with numerous model executions required by exploring the posterior probability density function (PPDF) of model parameters. This is particularly the case when the PPDF is estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. In this study, a new approach is developed to improve the computational efficiency of Bayesian inference by constructing a surrogate of the PPDF, using an adaptive sparse-grid high-order stochastic collocation (aSG-hSC) method. Unlike previous works using first-order hierarchical basis, this paper utilizes a compactly supported higher-order hierarchical basis to construct the surrogate system, resulting in a significant reduction in the number of required model executions. In addition, using the hierarchical surplus as an error indicator allows locally adaptive refinement of sparse grids in the parameter space, which further improves computational efficiency. To efficiently build the surrogate system for the PPDF with multiple significant modes, optimization techniques are used to identify the modes, for which high-probability regions are defined and components of the aSG-hSC approximation are constructed. After the surrogate is determined, the PPDF can be evaluated by sampling the surrogate system directly without model execution, resulting in improved efficiency of the surrogate-based MCMC compared with conventional MCMC. The developed method is evaluated using two synthetic groundwater reactive transport models. The first example involves coupled linear reactions and demonstrates the accuracy of our high-order hierarchical basis approach in approximating high-dimensional posteriori distribution. The second example is highly nonlinear because of the reactions of uranium surface complexation, and demonstrates how the iterative aSG-hSC method is able to capture multimodal and non-Gaussian features of PPDF caused by model nonlinearity. Both experiments show that aSG-hSC is an effective and efficient tool for Bayesian inference.

On Building an A-Posteriori Index from Survey Data: A Case for Educational Planners' Assessment of Attitudes towards an Educational Innovation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vazquez-Abad, Jesus; DePauw, Karen

To simplify data from a large survey, it is desirable to classify subjects according to their attitudes toward certain issues, as measured by questions in the survey. Responses to 12 questions were identified as indicative of attitudes toward deschooling education. These attitudes were explained by means of patterns exhibited within the responses…

At the origins of the Trojan Horse Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lattuada, Marcello

2018-01-01

During the seventies and eighties a long experimental research program on the quasi-free reactions at low energy was carried out by a small group of nuclear physicists, where Claudio Spitaleri was one of the main protagonists. Nowadays, a posteriori, the results of these studies can be considered an essential step preparatory to the application of the Trojan Horse Method (THM) in Nuclear Astrophysics.

A MAP blind image deconvolution algorithm with bandwidth over-constrained

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Zhilei; Liu, Jin; Liang, Yonghui; He, Yulong

2018-03-01

We demonstrate a maximum a posteriori (MAP) blind image deconvolution algorithm with bandwidth over-constrained and total variation (TV) regularization to recover a clear image from the AO corrected images. The point spread functions (PSFs) are estimated by bandwidth limited less than the cutoff frequency of the optical system. Our algorithm performs well in avoiding noise magnification. The performance is demonstrated on simulated data.

Leukocyte Recognition Using EM-Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colunga, Mario Chirinos; Siordia, Oscar Sánchez; Maybank, Stephen J.

This document describes a method for classifying images of blood cells. Three different classes of cells are used: Band Neutrophils, Eosinophils and Lymphocytes. The image pattern is projected down to a lower dimensional sub space using PCA; the probability density function for each class is modeled with a Gaussian mixture using the EM-Algorithm. A new cell image is classified using the maximum a posteriori decision rule.

A full-mission data set of H2O and HDO columns from SCIAMACHY 2.3 µm reflectance measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, Andreas; Borsdorff, Tobias; aan de Brugh, Joost; Hu, Haili; Landgraf, Jochen

2018-06-01

A new data set of vertical column densities of the water vapour isotopologues H2O and HDO from the SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) instrument for the whole of the mission period from January 2003 to April 2012 is presented. The data are retrieved from reflectance measurements in the spectral range 2339 to 2383 nm with the Shortwave Infrared CO Retrieval (SICOR) algorithm, ignoring atmospheric light scattering in the measurement simulation. The retrievals are validated with ground-based Fourier transform infrared measurements obtained within the Multi-platform remote Sensing of Isotopologues for investigating the Cycle of Atmospheric water (MUSICA) project. A good agreement for low-altitude stations is found with an average bias of -3.6×1021 for H2O and -1.0×1018 molec cm-2 for HDO. The a posteriori computed δD shows an average bias of -8 ‰, even though polar stations have a larger negative bias. The latter is due to the large amount of sensor noise in SCIAMACHY in combination with low albedo and high solar zenith angles. To demonstrate the benefit of accounting for light scattering in the retrieval, the quality of the data product fitting effective cloud parameters simultaneously with trace gas columns is evaluated in a dedicated case study for measurements round high-altitude stations. Due to a large altitude difference between the satellite ground pixel and the mountain station, clear-sky scenes yield a large bias, resulting in a δD bias of 125 ‰. When selecting scenes with optically thick clouds within 1000 m above or below the station altitude, the bias in a posteriori δD is reduced from 125 to 44 ‰. The insights from the present study will also benefit the analysis of the data from the new Sentinel-5 Precursor mission.

Identifying uniformly mutated segments within repeats.

PubMed

Sahinalp, S Cenk; Eichler, Evan; Goldberg, Paul; Berenbrink, Petra; Friedetzky, Tom; Ergun, Funda

2004-12-01

Given a long string of characters from a constant size alphabet we present an algorithm to determine whether its characters have been generated by a single i.i.d. random source. More specifically, consider all possible n-coin models for generating a binary string S, where each bit of S is generated via an independent toss of one of the n coins in the model. The choice of which coin to toss is decided by a random walk on the set of coins where the probability of a coin change is much lower than the probability of using the same coin repeatedly. We present a procedure to evaluate the likelihood of a n-coin model for given S, subject a uniform prior distribution over the parameters of the model (that represent mutation rates and probabilities of copying events). In the absence of detailed prior knowledge of these parameters, the algorithm can be used to determine whether the a posteriori probability for n=1 is higher than for any other n>1. Our algorithm runs in time O(l4logl), where l is the length of S, through a dynamic programming approach which exploits the assumed convexity of the a posteriori probability for n. Our test can be used in the analysis of long alignments between pairs of genomic sequences in a number of ways. For example, functional regions in genome sequences exhibit much lower mutation rates than non-functional regions. Because our test provides means for determining variations in the mutation rate, it may be used to distinguish functional regions from non-functional ones. Another application is in determining whether two highly similar, thus evolutionarily related, genome segments are the result of a single copy event or of a complex series of copy events. This is particularly an issue in evolutionary studies of genome regions rich with repeat segments (especially tandemly repeated segments).

Image-based topology for sensor gridlocking and association

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanek, Clay J.; Javidi, Bahram; Yanni, Philip

2002-07-01

Correlation engines have been evolving since the implementation of radar. In modern sensor fusion architectures, correlation and gridlock filtering are required to produce common, continuous, and unambiguous tracks of all objects in the surveillance area. The objective is to provide a unified picture of the theatre or area of interest to battlefield decision makers, ultimately enabling them to make better inferences for future action and eliminate fratricide by reducing ambiguities. Here, correlation refers to association, which in this context is track-to-track association. A related process, gridlock filtering or gridlocking, refers to the reduction in navigation errors and sensor misalignment errors so that one sensor's track data can be accurately transformed into another sensor's coordinate system. As platforms gain multiple sensors, the correlation and gridlocking of tracks become significantly more difficult. Much of the existing correlation technology revolves around various interpretations of the generalized Bayesian decision rule: choose the action that minimizes conditional risk. One implementation of this principle equates the risk minimization statement to the comparison of ratios of a priori probability distributions to thresholds. The binary decision problem phrased in terms of likelihood ratios is also known as the famed Neyman-Pearson hypothesis test. Using another restatement of the principle for a symmetric loss function, risk minimization leads to a decision that maximizes the a posteriori probability distribution. Even for deterministic decision rules, situations can arise in correlation where there are ambiguities. For these situations, a common algorithm used is a sparse assignment technique such as the Munkres or JVC algorithm. Furthermore, associated tracks may be combined with the hope of reducing the positional uncertainty of a target or object identified by an existing track from the information of several fused/correlated tracks. Gridlocking is typically accomplished with some type of least-squares algorithm, such as the Kalman filtering technique, which attempts to locate the best bias error vector estimate from a set of correlated/fused track pairs. Here, we will introduce a new approach to this longstanding problem by adapting many of the familiar concepts from pattern recognition, ones certainly familiar to target recognition applications. Furthermore, we will show how this technique can lend itself to specialized processing, such as that available through an optical or hybrid correlator.

Error analysis of mathematical problems on TIMSS: A case of Indonesian secondary students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Priyani, H. A.; Ekawati, R.

2018-01-01

Indonesian students’ competence in solving mathematical problems is still considered as weak. It was pointed out by the results of international assessment such as TIMSS. This might be caused by various types of errors made. Hence, this study aimed at identifying students’ errors in solving mathematical problems in TIMSS in the topic of numbers that considered as the fundamental concept in Mathematics. This study applied descriptive qualitative analysis. The subject was three students with most errors in the test indicators who were taken from 34 students of 8th graders. Data was obtained through paper and pencil test and student’s’ interview. The error analysis indicated that in solving Applying level problem, the type of error that students made was operational errors. In addition, for reasoning level problem, there are three types of errors made such as conceptual errors, operational errors and principal errors. Meanwhile, analysis of the causes of students’ errors showed that students did not comprehend the mathematical problems given.

Error Propagation Analysis in the SAE Architecture Analysis and Design Language (AADL) and the EDICT Tool Framework

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

LaValley, Brian W.; Little, Phillip D.; Walter, Chris J.

2011-01-01

This report documents the capabilities of the EDICT tools for error modeling and error propagation analysis when operating with models defined in the Architecture Analysis & Design Language (AADL). We discuss our experience using the EDICT error analysis capabilities on a model of the Scalable Processor-Independent Design for Enhanced Reliability (SPIDER) architecture that uses the Reliable Optical Bus (ROBUS). Based on these experiences we draw some initial conclusions about model based design techniques for error modeling and analysis of highly reliable computing architectures.

A Posteriori Study of a DNS Database Describing Super critical Binary-Species Mixing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bellan, Josette; Taskinoglu, Ezgi

2012-01-01

Currently, the modeling of supercritical-pressure flows through Large Eddy Simulation (LES) uses models derived for atmospheric-pressure flows. Those atmospheric-pressure flows do not exhibit the particularities of high densitygradient magnitude features observed both in experiments and simulations of supercritical-pressure flows in the case of two species mixing. To assess whether the current LES modeling is appropriate and if found not appropriate to propose higher-fidelity models, a LES a posteriori study has been conducted for a mixing layer that initially contains different species in the lower and upper streams, and where the initial pressure is larger than the critical pressure of either species. An initially-imposed vorticity perturbation promotes roll-up and a double pairing of four initial span-wise vortices into an ultimate vortex that reaches a transitional state. The LES equations consist of the differential conservation equations coupled with a real-gas equation of state, and the equation set uses transport properties depending on the thermodynamic variables. Unlike all LES models to date, the differential equations contain, additional to the subgrid scale (SGS) fluxes, a new SGS term that is a pressure correction in the momentum equation. This additional term results from filtering of Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) equations, and represents the gradient of the difference between the filtered pressure and the pressure computed from the filtered flow field. A previous a priori analysis, using a DNS database for the same configuration, found this term to be of leading order in the momentum equation, a fact traced to the existence of high-densitygradient magnitude regions that populated the entire flow; in the study, models were proposed for the SGS fluxes as well as this new term. In the present study, the previously proposed constantcoefficient SGS-flux models of the a priori investigation are tested a posteriori in LES, devoid of or including, the SGS pressure correction term. The present pressure-correction model is different from, and more accurate as well as less computationally intensive than that of the a priori study. The constant-coefficient SGS-flux models encompass the Smagorinsky (SMC), in conjunction with the Yoshizawa (YO) model for the trace, the Gradient (GRC) and the Scale Similarity (SSC) models, all exercised with the a priori study constant coefficients calibrated at the transitional state. The LES comparison is performed with the filtered- and-coarsened (FC) DNS, which represents an ideal LES solution. Expectably, an LES model devoid of SGS terms is shown to be considerably inferior to models containing SGS effects. Among models containing SGS effects, those including the pressure-correction term are substantially superior to those devoid of it. The sensitivity of the predictions to the initial conditions and grid size are also investigated. Thus, it has been discovered that, additional to the atmospheric-pressure models currently used, a new model is necessary to simulate supercritical-pressure flows. This model depends on the thermodynamic characteristics of the chemical species involved.

Monitoring tropical vegetation succession with LANDSAT data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robinson, V. B. (Principal Investigator)

1983-01-01

The shadowing problem, which is endemic to the use of LANDSAT in tropical areas, and the ability to model changes over space and through time are problems to be addressed when monitoring tropical vegetation succession. Application of a trend surface analysis model to major land cover classes in a mountainous region of the Phillipines shows that the spatial modeling of radiance values can provide a useful approach to tropical rain forest succession monitoring. Results indicate shadowing effects may be due primarily to local variations in the spectral responses. These variations can be compensated for through the decomposition of the spatial variation in both elevation and MSS data. Using the model to estimate both elevation and spectral terrain surface as a posteriori inputs in the classification process leads to improved classification accuracy for vegetation of cover of this type. Spatial patterns depicted by the MSS data reflect the measurement of responses to spatial processes acting at several scales.

Reconstruction of regional climate and climate change in past decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

von Storch, H.; Feser, F.; Weisse, R.; Zahn, M.

2009-12-01

Regional climate models, which are constrained by large scale information (spectral nudging) provided by re-analyses, allow for the construction of a mostly homogeneous description of regional weather statistics since about 1950. The potential of this approach has been demonstrated for Northern Europe. That data set, named CoastDat, does not only contain hourly data on atmospheric variables, in particular wind, but also on marine weather, i.e., short term water level, current and sea state variations. Another example is the multi-decadal variability of Polar Lows in the subarctic waters. The utility of such data sets is broad, from risk assessments related to coastal wind and wave conditions, assessment of determining the causes for regional climate change, a-posteriori analysis of the efficiency of environmental legislation (example: lead). In the paper, the methodology is outlined, examples are provided and the utility of the product discussed.

Large scale anomalies in the microwave background: causation and correlation.

PubMed

Aslanyan, Grigor; Easther, Richard

2013-12-27

Most treatments of large scale anomalies in the microwave sky are a posteriori, with unquantified look-elsewhere effects. We contrast these with physical models of specific inhomogeneities in the early Universe which can generate these apparent anomalies. Physical models predict correlations between candidate anomalies and the corresponding signals in polarization and large scale structure, reducing the impact of cosmic variance. We compute the apparent spatial curvature associated with large-scale inhomogeneities and show that it is typically small, allowing for a self-consistent analysis. As an illustrative example we show that a single large plane wave inhomogeneity can contribute to low-l mode alignment and odd-even asymmetry in the power spectra and the best-fit model accounts for a significant part of the claimed odd-even asymmetry. We argue that this approach can be generalized to provide a more quantitative assessment of potential large scale anomalies in the Universe.

Search for Cross-Correlations of Ultrahigh-Energy Cosmic Rays with BL Lacertae Objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abbasi, R. U.; Abu-Zayyad, T.; Amann, J. F.; Archbold, G.; Belov, K.; Belz, J. W.; BenZvi, S.; Bergman, D. R.; Blake, S. A.; Boyer, J. H.; Burt, G. W.; Cao, Z.; Connolly, B. M.; Deng, W.; Fedorova, Y.; Findlay, J.; Finley, C. B.; Hanlon, W. F.; Hoffman, C. M.; Holzscheiter, M. H.; Hughes, G. A.; Hüntemeyer, P.; Jui, C. C. H.; Kim, K.; Kirn, M. A.; Knapp, B. C.; Loh, E. C.; Maestas, M. M.; Manago, N.; Mannel, E. J.; Marek, L. J.; Martens, K.; Matthews, J. A. J.; Matthews, J. N.; O'Neill, A.; Painter, C. A.; Perera, L.; Reil, K.; Riehle, R.; Roberts, M. D.; Rodriguez, D.; Sasaki, M.; Schnetzer, S. R.; Seman, M.; Sinnis, G.; Smith, J. D.; Snow, R.; Sokolsky, P.; Springer, R. W.; Stokes, B. T.; Thomas, J. R.; Thomas, S. B.; Thomson, G. B.; Tupa, D.; Westerhoff, S.; Wiencke, L. R.; Zech, A.; HIRES Collaboration

2006-01-01

Data taken in stereo mode by the High Resolution Fly's Eye (HiRes) air fluorescence experiment are analyzed to search for correlations between the arrival directions of ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays with the positions of BL Lacertae objects. Several previous claims of significant correlations between BL Lac objects and cosmic rays observed by other experiments are tested. These claims are not supported by the HiRes data. However, we verify a recent analysis of correlations between HiRes events and a subset of confirmed BL Lac objects from the 10th Veron Catalog, and we study this correlation in detail. Due to the a posteriori nature of the search, the significance level cannot be reliably estimated and the correlation must be tested independently before any claim can be made. We identify the precise hypotheses that will be tested with statistically independent data.

Geophysical approaches to inverse problems: A methodological comparison. Part 1: A Posteriori approach

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seidman, T. I.; Munteanu, M. J.

1979-01-01

The relationships of a variety of general computational methods (and variances) for treating illposed problems such as geophysical inverse problems are considered. Differences in approach and interpretation based on varying assumptions as to, e.g., the nature of measurement uncertainties are discussed along with the factors to be considered in selecting an approach. The reliability of the results of such computation is addressed.

Practical Considerations about Expected A Posteriori Estimation in Adaptive Testing: Adaptive A Priori, Adaptive Correction for Bias, and Adaptive Integration Interval.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raiche, Gilles; Blais, Jean-Guy

In a computerized adaptive test (CAT), it would be desirable to obtain an acceptable precision of the proficiency level estimate using an optimal number of items. Decreasing the number of items is accompanied, however, by a certain degree of bias when the true proficiency level differs significantly from the a priori estimate. G. Raiche (2000) has…

On the Least-Squares Fitting of Correlated Data: a Priorivs a PosterioriWeighting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tellinghuisen, Joel

1996-10-01

One of the methods in common use for analyzing large data sets is a two-step procedure, in which subsets of the full data are first least-squares fitted to a preliminary set of parameters, and the latter are subsequently merged to yield the final parameters. The second step of this procedure is properly a correlated least-squares fit and requires the variance-covariance matrices from the first step to construct the weight matrix for the merge. There is, however, an ambiguity concerning the manner in which the first-step variance-covariance matrices are assessed, which leads to different statistical properties for the quantities determined in the merge. The issue is one ofa priorivsa posterioriassessment of weights, which is an application of what was originally calledinternalvsexternal consistencyby Birge [Phys. Rev.40,207-227 (1932)] and Deming ("Statistical Adjustment of Data." Dover, New York, 1964). In the present work the simplest case of a merge fit-that of an average as obtained from a global fit vs a two-step fit of partitioned data-is used to illustrate that only in the case of a priori weighting do the results have the usually expected and desired statistical properties: normal distributions for residuals,tdistributions for parameters assessed a posteriori, and χ2distributions for variances.

Top-down Estimates of Biomass Burning Emissions of Black Carbon in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Y.; Li, Q.; Randerson, J. T.; Liou, K.

2011-12-01

We apply a Bayesian linear inversion to derive top-down estimates of biomass burning emissions of black carbon (BC) in the western United States (WUS) for May-November 2006 by inverting surface BC concentrations from the IMPROVE network using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. Model simulations are conducted at both 2°×2.5° (globally) and 0.55°×0.66° (nested over North America) horizontal resolutions. We first improve the spatial distributions and seasonal and interannual variations of the BC emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv2) using MODIS 8-day active fire counts from 2005-2007. The GFEDv2 emissions in N. America are adjusted for three zones: boreal N. America, temperate N. America, and Mexico plus Central America. The resulting emissions are then used as a priori for the inversion. The a posteriori emissions are 2-5 times higher than the a priori in California and the Rockies. Model surface BC concentrations using the a posteriori estimate provide better agreement with IMPROVE observations (~20% increase in the Taylor skill score), including improved ability to capture the observed variability especially during June-July. However, model surface BC concentrations are still biased low by ~30%. Comparisons with the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) are included.

Top-down Estimates of Biomass Burning Emissions of Black Carbon in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Y.; Li, Q.; Randerson, J. T.; CHEN, D.; Zhang, L.; Liou, K.

2012-12-01

We apply a Bayesian linear inversion to derive top-down estimates of biomass burning emissions of black carbon (BC) in the western United States (WUS) for May-November 2006 by inverting surface BC concentrations from the IMPROVE network using the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. Model simulations are conducted at both 2°×2.5° (globally) and 0.5°×0.667° (nested over North America) horizontal resolutions. We first improve the spatial distributions and seasonal and interannual variations of the BC emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFEDv2) using MODIS 8-day active fire counts from 2005-2007. The GFEDv2 emissions in N. America are adjusted for three zones: boreal N. America, temperate N. America, and Mexico plus Central America. The resulting emissions are then used as a priori for the inversion. The a posteriori emissions are 2-5 times higher than the a priori in California and the Rockies. Model surface BC concentrations using the a posteriori estimate provide better agreement with IMPROVE observations (~50% increase in the Taylor skill score), including improved ability to capture the observed variability especially during June-September. However, model surface BC concentrations are still biased low by ~30%. Comparisons with the Fire Locating and Modeling of Burning Emissions (FLAMBE) are included.

A meta-learning system based on genetic algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pellerin, Eric; Pigeon, Luc; Delisle, Sylvain

2004-04-01

The design of an efficient machine learning process through self-adaptation is a great challenge. The goal of meta-learning is to build a self-adaptive learning system that is constantly adapting to its specific (and dynamic) environment. To that end, the meta-learning mechanism must improve its bias dynamically by updating the current learning strategy in accordance with its available experiences or meta-knowledge. We suggest using genetic algorithms as the basis of an adaptive system. In this work, we propose a meta-learning system based on a combination of the a priori and a posteriori concepts. A priori refers to input information and knowledge available at the beginning in order to built and evolve one or more sets of parameters by exploiting the context of the system"s information. The self-learning component is based on genetic algorithms and neural Darwinism. A posteriori refers to the implicit knowledge discovered by estimation of the future states of parameters and is also applied to the finding of optimal parameters values. The in-progress research presented here suggests a framework for the discovery of knowledge that can support human experts in their intelligence information assessment tasks. The conclusion presents avenues for further research in genetic algorithms and their capability to learn to learn.

Sparsity-promoting and edge-preserving maximum a posteriori estimators in non-parametric Bayesian inverse problems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agapiou, Sergios; Burger, Martin; Dashti, Masoumeh; Helin, Tapio

2018-04-01

We consider the inverse problem of recovering an unknown functional parameter u in a separable Banach space, from a noisy observation vector y of its image through a known possibly non-linear map {{\\mathcal G}} . We adopt a Bayesian approach to the problem and consider Besov space priors (see Lassas et al (2009 Inverse Problems Imaging 3 87-122)), which are well-known for their edge-preserving and sparsity-promoting properties and have recently attracted wide attention especially in the medical imaging community. Our key result is to show that in this non-parametric setup the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimates are characterized by the minimizers of a generalized Onsager-Machlup functional of the posterior. This is done independently for the so-called weak and strong MAP estimates, which as we show coincide in our context. In addition, we prove a form of weak consistency for the MAP estimators in the infinitely informative data limit. Our results are remarkable for two reasons: first, the prior distribution is non-Gaussian and does not meet the smoothness conditions required in previous research on non-parametric MAP estimates. Second, the result analytically justifies existing uses of the MAP estimate in finite but high dimensional discretizations of Bayesian inverse problems with the considered Besov priors.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

JOHNSON, A.R.

Biological control is any activity taken to prevent, limit, clean up, or remediate potential environmental, health and safety, or workplace quality impacts from plants, animals, or microorganisms. At Hanford the principal emphasis of biological control is to prevent the transport of radioactive contamination by biological vectors (plants, animals, or microorganisms), and where necessary, control and clean up resulting contamination. Other aspects of biological control at Hanford include industrial weed control (e.g.; tumbleweeds), noxious weed control (invasive, non-native plant species), and pest control (undesirable animals such as rodents and stinging insects, and microorganisms such as molds that adversely affect the qualitymore » of the workplace environment). Biological control activities may be either preventive (a priori) or in response to existing contamination spread (a posteriori). Surveillance activities, including ground, vegetation, flying insect, and other surveys, and a priori control actions, such as herbicide spraying and placing biological barriers, are important in preventing radioactive contamination spread. If surveillance discovers that biological vectors have spread radioactive contamination, a posteriori control measures, such as fixing contamination, followed by cleanup and removal of the contamination to an approved disposal location are typical response functions. In some cases remediation following the contamination cleanup and removal is necessary. Biological control activities for industrial weeds, noxious weeds and pests have similar modes of prevention and response.« less

Pattern recognition for passive polarimetric data using nonparametric classifiers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thilak, Vimal; Saini, Jatinder; Voelz, David G.; Creusere, Charles D.

2005-08-01

Passive polarization based imaging is a useful tool in computer vision and pattern recognition. A passive polarization imaging system forms a polarimetric image from the reflection of ambient light that contains useful information for computer vision tasks such as object detection (classification) and recognition. Applications of polarization based pattern recognition include material classification and automatic shape recognition. In this paper, we present two target detection algorithms for images captured by a passive polarimetric imaging system. The proposed detection algorithms are based on Bayesian decision theory. In these approaches, an object can belong to one of any given number classes and classification involves making decisions that minimize the average probability of making incorrect decisions. This minimum is achieved by assigning an object to the class that maximizes the a posteriori probability. Computing a posteriori probabilities requires estimates of class conditional probability density functions (likelihoods) and prior probabilities. A Probabilistic neural network (PNN), which is a nonparametric method that can compute Bayes optimal boundaries, and a -nearest neighbor (KNN) classifier, is used for density estimation and classification. The proposed algorithms are applied to polarimetric image data gathered in the laboratory with a liquid crystal-based system. The experimental results validate the effectiveness of the above algorithms for target detection from polarimetric data.

42 CFR 431.992 - Corrective action plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... CMS, designed to reduce improper payments in each program based on its analysis of the error causes in... State must take the following actions: (1) Data analysis. States must conduct data analysis such as reviewing clusters of errors, general error causes, characteristics, and frequency of errors that are...

42 CFR 431.992 - Corrective action plan.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... CMS, designed to reduce improper payments in each program based on its analysis of the error causes in... State must take the following actions: (1) Data analysis. States must conduct data analysis such as reviewing clusters of errors, general error causes, characteristics, and frequency of errors that are...

Low-dimensional Representation of Error Covariance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Cohn, Stephen E.; Todling, Ricardo; Marchesin, Dan

2000-01-01

Ensemble and reduced-rank approaches to prediction and assimilation rely on low-dimensional approximations of the estimation error covariances. Here stability properties of the forecast/analysis cycle for linear, time-independent systems are used to identify factors that cause the steady-state analysis error covariance to admit a low-dimensional representation. A useful measure of forecast/analysis cycle stability is the bound matrix, a function of the dynamics, observation operator and assimilation method. Upper and lower estimates for the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix eigenvalues are derived from the bound matrix. The estimates generalize to time-dependent systems. If much of the steady-state analysis error variance is due to a few dominant modes, the leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix approximate those of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix. The analytical results are illustrated in two numerical examples where the Kalman filter is carried to steady state. The first example uses the dynamics of a generalized advection equation exhibiting nonmodal transient growth. Failure to observe growing modes leads to increased steady-state analysis error variances. Leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix are well approximated by leading eigenvectors of the bound matrix. The second example uses the dynamics of a damped baroclinic wave model. The leading eigenvectors of a lowest-order approximation of the bound matrix are shown to approximate well the leading eigenvectors of the steady-state analysis error covariance matrix.

Consistent regional fluxes of CH4 and CO2 inferred from GOSAT proxy XCH4 : XCO2 retrievals, 2010-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Liang; Palmer, Paul I.; Bösch, Hartmut; Parker, Robert J.; Webb, Alex J.; Correia, Caio S. C.; Deutscher, Nicholas M.; Domingues, Lucas G.; Feist, Dietrich G.; Gatti, Luciana V.; Gloor, Emanuel; Hase, Frank; Kivi, Rigel; Liu, Yi; Miller, John B.; Morino, Isamu; Sussmann, Ralf; Strong, Kimberly; Uchino, Osamu; Wang, Jing; Zahn, Andreas

2017-04-01

We use the GEOS-Chem global 3-D model of atmospheric chemistry and transport and an ensemble Kalman filter to simultaneously infer regional fluxes of methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) directly from GOSAT retrievals of XCH4 : XCO2, using sparse ground-based CH4 and CO2 mole fraction data to anchor the ratio. This work builds on the previously reported theory that takes into account that (1) these ratios are less prone to systematic error than either the full-physics data products or the proxy CH4 data products; and (2) the resulting CH4 and CO2 fluxes are self-consistent. We show that a posteriori fluxes inferred from the GOSAT data generally outperform the fluxes inferred only from in situ data, as expected. GOSAT CH4 and CO2 fluxes are consistent with global growth rates for CO2 and CH4 reported by NOAA and have a range of independent data including new profile measurements (0-7 km) over the Amazon Basin that were collected specifically to help validate GOSAT over this geographical region. We find that large-scale multi-year annual a posteriori CO2 fluxes inferred from GOSAT data are similar to those inferred from the in situ surface data but with smaller uncertainties, particularly over the tropics. GOSAT data are consistent with smaller peak-to-peak seasonal amplitudes of CO2 than either the a priori or in situ inversion, particularly over the tropics and the southern extratropics. Over the northern extratropics, GOSAT data show larger uptake than the a priori but less than the in situ inversion, resulting in small net emissions over the year. We also find evidence that the carbon balance of tropical South America was perturbed following the droughts of 2010 and 2012 with net annual fluxes not returning to an approximate annual balance until 2013. In contrast, GOSAT data significantly changed the a priori spatial distribution of CH4 emission with a 40 % increase over tropical South America and tropical Asia and a smaller decrease over Eurasia and temperate South America. We find no evidence from GOSAT that tropical South American CH4 fluxes were dramatically affected by the two large-scale Amazon droughts. However, we find that GOSAT data are consistent with double seasonal peaks in Amazonian fluxes that are reproduced over the 5 years we studied: a small peak from January to April and a larger peak from June to October, which are likely due to superimposed emissions from different geographical regions.

Post-processing of auditory steady-state responses to correct spectral leakage.

PubMed

Felix, Leonardo Bonato; de Sá, Antonio Mauricio Ferreira Leite Miranda; Mendes, Eduardo Mazoni Andrade Marçal; Moraes, Márcio Flávio Dutra

2009-06-30

Auditory steady-state responses (ASSRs) are electrical manifestations of brain due to high rate sound stimulation. These evoked responses can be used to assess the hearing capabilities of a subject in an objective, automatic fashion. Usually, the detection protocol is accomplished by frequency-domain techniques, such as magnitude-squared coherence, whose estimation is based on the fast Fourier transform (FFT) of several data segments. In practice, the FFT-based spectrum may spread out the energy of a given frequency to its side bins and this escape of energy in the spectrum is called spectral leakage. The distortion of the spectrum due to leakage may severely compromise statistical significance of objective detection. This work presents an offline, a posteriori method for spectral leakage minimization in the frequency-domain analysis of ASSRs using coherent sampling criterion and interpolation in time. The technique was applied to the local field potentials of 10 Wistar rats and the results, together with those from simulated data, indicate that a leakage-free analysis of ASSRs is possible for any dataset if the methods showed in this paper were followed.

System Biology Approach: Gene Network Analysis for Muscular Dystrophy.

PubMed

Censi, Federica; Calcagnini, Giovanni; Mattei, Eugenio; Giuliani, Alessandro

2018-01-01

Phenotypic changes at different organization levels from cell to entire organism are associated to changes in the pattern of gene expression. These changes involve the entire genome expression pattern and heavily rely upon correlation patterns among genes. The classical approach used to analyze gene expression data builds upon the application of supervised statistical techniques to detect genes differentially expressed among two or more phenotypes (e.g., normal vs. disease). The use of an a posteriori, unsupervised approach based on principal component analysis (PCA) and the subsequent construction of gene correlation networks can shed a light on unexpected behaviour of gene regulation system while maintaining a more naturalistic view on the studied system.In this chapter we applied an unsupervised method to discriminate DMD patient and controls. The genes having the highest absolute scores in the discrimination between the groups were then analyzed in terms of gene expression networks, on the basis of their mutual correlation in the two groups. The correlation network structures suggest two different modes of gene regulation in the two groups, reminiscent of important aspects of DMD pathogenesis.

Error-Analysis for Correctness, Effectiveness, and Composing Procedure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ewald, Helen Rothschild

The assumptions underpinning grammatical mistakes can often be detected by looking for patterns of errors in a student's work. Assumptions that negatively influence rhetorical effectiveness can similarly be detected through error analysis. On a smaller scale, error analysis can also reveal assumptions affecting rhetorical choice. Snags in the…

Automatic Error Analysis Using Intervals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rothwell, E. J.; Cloud, M. J.

2012-01-01

A technique for automatic error analysis using interval mathematics is introduced. A comparison to standard error propagation methods shows that in cases involving complicated formulas, the interval approach gives comparable error estimates with much less effort. Several examples are considered, and numerical errors are computed using the INTLAB…

Uncertainty Quantification of GEOS-5 L-band Radiative Transfer Model Parameters Using Bayesian Inference and SMOS Observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

DeLannoy, Gabrielle J. M.; Reichle, Rolf H.; Vrugt, Jasper A.

2013-01-01

Uncertainties in L-band (1.4 GHz) radiative transfer modeling (RTM) affect the simulation of brightness temperatures (Tb) over land and the inversion of satellite-observed Tb into soil moisture retrievals. In particular, accurate estimates of the microwave soil roughness, vegetation opacity and scattering albedo for large-scale applications are difficult to obtain from field studies and often lack an uncertainty estimate. Here, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method is used to determine satellite-scale estimates of RTM parameters and their posterior uncertainty by minimizing the misfit between long-term averages and standard deviations of simulated and observed Tb at a range of incidence angles, at horizontal and vertical polarization, and for morning and evening overpasses. Tb simulations are generated with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) and confronted with Tb observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. The MCMC algorithm suggests that the relative uncertainty of the RTM parameter estimates is typically less than 25 of the maximum a posteriori density (MAP) parameter value. Furthermore, the actual root-mean-square-differences in long-term Tb averages and standard deviations are found consistent with the respective estimated total simulation and observation error standard deviations of m3.1K and s2.4K. It is also shown that the MAP parameter values estimated through MCMC simulation are in close agreement with those obtained with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO).

The impact of response measurement error on the analysis of designed experiments

DOE PAGES

Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela; Hamada, Michael Scott; Burr, Thomas Lee

2016-11-01

This study considers the analysis of designed experiments when there is measurement error in the true response or so-called response measurement error. We consider both additive and multiplicative response measurement errors. Through a simulation study, we investigate the impact of ignoring the response measurement error in the analysis, that is, by using a standard analysis based on t-tests. In addition, we examine the role of repeat measurements in improving the quality of estimation and prediction in the presence of response measurement error. We also study a Bayesian approach that accounts for the response measurement error directly through the specification ofmore » the model, and allows including additional information about variability in the analysis. We consider the impact on power, prediction, and optimization. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.« less

The impact of response measurement error on the analysis of designed experiments

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anderson-Cook, Christine Michaela; Hamada, Michael Scott; Burr, Thomas Lee

This study considers the analysis of designed experiments when there is measurement error in the true response or so-called response measurement error. We consider both additive and multiplicative response measurement errors. Through a simulation study, we investigate the impact of ignoring the response measurement error in the analysis, that is, by using a standard analysis based on t-tests. In addition, we examine the role of repeat measurements in improving the quality of estimation and prediction in the presence of response measurement error. We also study a Bayesian approach that accounts for the response measurement error directly through the specification ofmore » the model, and allows including additional information about variability in the analysis. We consider the impact on power, prediction, and optimization. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.« less

RadVel: General toolkit for modeling Radial Velocities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fulton, Benjamin J.; Petigura, Erik A.; Blunt, Sarah; Sinukoff, Evan

2018-01-01

RadVel models Keplerian orbits in radial velocity (RV) time series. The code is written in Python with a fast Kepler's equation solver written in C. It provides a framework for fitting RVs using maximum a posteriori optimization and computing robust confidence intervals by sampling the posterior probability density via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). RadVel can perform Bayesian model comparison and produces publication quality plots and LaTeX tables.

Measurement Error and Equating Error in Power Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Gary W.; Jiang, Tao

2016-01-01

Power analysis is a fundamental prerequisite for conducting scientific research. Without power analysis the researcher has no way of knowing whether the sample size is large enough to detect the effect he or she is looking for. This paper demonstrates how psychometric factors such as measurement error and equating error affect the power of…

Latent human error analysis and efficient improvement strategies by fuzzy TOPSIS in aviation maintenance tasks.

PubMed

Chiu, Ming-Chuan; Hsieh, Min-Chih

2016-05-01

The purposes of this study were to develop a latent human error analysis process, to explore the factors of latent human error in aviation maintenance tasks, and to provide an efficient improvement strategy for addressing those errors. First, we used HFACS and RCA to define the error factors related to aviation maintenance tasks. Fuzzy TOPSIS with four criteria was applied to evaluate the error factors. Results show that 1) adverse physiological states, 2) physical/mental limitations, and 3) coordination, communication, and planning are the factors related to airline maintenance tasks that could be addressed easily and efficiently. This research establishes a new analytic process for investigating latent human error and provides a strategy for analyzing human error using fuzzy TOPSIS. Our analysis process complements shortages in existing methodologies by incorporating improvement efficiency, and it enhances the depth and broadness of human error analysis methodology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

The Role of Model and Initial Condition Error in Numerical Weather Forecasting Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prive, Nikki C.; Errico, Ronald M.

2013-01-01

A series of experiments that explore the roles of model and initial condition error in numerical weather prediction are performed using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASA/GMAO). The use of an OSSE allows the analysis and forecast errors to be explicitly calculated, and different hypothetical observing networks can be tested with ease. In these experiments, both a full global OSSE framework and an 'identical twin' OSSE setup are utilized to compare the behavior of the data assimilation system and evolution of forecast skill with and without model error. The initial condition error is manipulated by varying the distribution and quality of the observing network and the magnitude of observation errors. The results show that model error has a strong impact on both the quality of the analysis field and the evolution of forecast skill, including both systematic and unsystematic model error components. With a realistic observing network, the analysis state retains a significant quantity of error due to systematic model error. If errors of the analysis state are minimized, model error acts to rapidly degrade forecast skill during the first 24-48 hours of forward integration. In the presence of model error, the impact of observation errors on forecast skill is small, but in the absence of model error, observation errors cause a substantial degradation of the skill of medium range forecasts.

Effects of Correlated Errors on the Analysis of Space Geodetic Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romero-Wolf, Andres; Jacobs, C. S.

2011-01-01

As thermal errors are reduced instrumental and troposphere correlated errors will increasingly become more important. Work in progress shows that troposphere covariance error models improve data analysis results. We expect to see stronger effects with higher data rates. Temperature modeling of delay errors may further reduce temporal correlations in the data.

Skylab water balance error analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leonard, J. I.

1977-01-01

Estimates of the precision of the net water balance were obtained for the entire Skylab preflight and inflight phases as well as for the first two weeks of flight. Quantitative estimates of both total sampling errors and instrumentation errors were obtained. It was shown that measurement error is minimal in comparison to biological variability and little can be gained from improvement in analytical accuracy. In addition, a propagation of error analysis demonstrated that total water balance error could be accounted for almost entirely by the errors associated with body mass changes. Errors due to interaction between terms in the water balance equation (covariances) represented less than 10% of the total error. Overall, the analysis provides evidence that daily measurements of body water changes obtained from the indirect balance technique are reasonable, precise, and relaible. The method is not biased toward net retention or loss.

Spectral Analysis of Forecast Error Investigated with an Observing System Simulation Experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Prive, N. C.; Errico, Ronald M.

2015-01-01

The spectra of analysis and forecast error are examined using the observing system simulation experiment (OSSE) framework developed at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (NASAGMAO). A global numerical weather prediction model, the Global Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) with Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation, is cycled for two months with once-daily forecasts to 336 hours to generate a control case. Verification of forecast errors using the Nature Run as truth is compared with verification of forecast errors using self-analysis; significant underestimation of forecast errors is seen using self-analysis verification for up to 48 hours. Likewise, self analysis verification significantly overestimates the error growth rates of the early forecast, as well as mischaracterizing the spatial scales at which the strongest growth occurs. The Nature Run-verified error variances exhibit a complicated progression of growth, particularly for low wave number errors. In a second experiment, cycling of the model and data assimilation over the same period is repeated, but using synthetic observations with different explicitly added observation errors having the same error variances as the control experiment, thus creating a different realization of the control. The forecast errors of the two experiments become more correlated during the early forecast period, with correlations increasing for up to 72 hours before beginning to decrease.

Human Factors Process Task Analysis: Liquid Oxygen Pump Acceptance Test Procedure at the Advanced Technology Development Center

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diorio, Kimberly A.; Voska, Ned (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

This viewgraph presentation provides information on Human Factors Process Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (HF PFMEA). HF PFMEA includes the following 10 steps: Describe mission; Define System; Identify human-machine; List human actions; Identify potential errors; Identify factors that effect error; Determine likelihood of error; Determine potential effects of errors; Evaluate risk; Generate solutions (manage error). The presentation also describes how this analysis was applied to a liquid oxygen pump acceptance test.

The cosmological analysis of X-ray cluster surveys. IV. Testing ASpiX with template-based cosmological simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valotti, A.; Pierre, M.; Farahi, A.; Evrard, A.; Faccioli, L.; Sauvageot, J.-L.; Clerc, N.; Pacaud, F.

2018-06-01

Context. This paper is the fourth of a series evaluating the ASpiX cosmological method, based on X-ray diagrams, which are constructed from simple cluster observable quantities, namely: count rate (CR), hardness ratio (HR), core radius (rc), and redshift. Aims: Following extensive tests on analytical toy catalogues (Paper III), we present the results of a more realistic study over a 711 deg2 template-based maps derived from a cosmological simulation. Methods: Dark matter haloes from the Aardvark simulation have been ascribed luminosities, temperatures, and core radii, using local scaling relations and assuming self-similar evolution. The predicted X-ray sky-maps were converted into XMM event lists, using a detailed instrumental simulator. The XXL pipeline runs on the resulting sky images, produces an observed cluster catalogue over which the tests have been performed. This allowed us to investigate the relative power of various combinations of the CR, HR, rc, and redshift information. Two fitting methods were used: a traditional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach and a simple minimisation procedure (Amoeba) whose mean uncertainties are a posteriori evaluated by means of synthetic catalogues. The results were analysed and compared to the predictions from the Fisher analysis (FA). Results: For this particular catalogue realisation, assuming that the scaling relations are perfectly known, the CR-HR combination gives σ8 and Ωm at the 10% level, while CR-HR-rc-z improves this to ≤3%. Adding a second HR improves the results from the CR-HR1-rc combination, but to a lesser extent than when adding the redshift information. When all coefficients of the mass-temperature relation (M-T, including scatter) are also fitted, the cosmological parameters are constrained to within 5-10% and larger for the M-T coefficients (up to a factor of two for the scatter). The errors returned by the MCMC, those by Amoeba and the FA predictions are in most cases in excellent agreement and always within a factor of two. We also study the impact of the scatter of the mass-size relation (M-Rc) on the number of detected clusters: for the cluster typical sizes usually assumed, the larger the scatter, the lower the number of detected objects. Conclusions: The present study confirms and extends the trends outlined in our previous analyses, namely the power of X-ray observable diagrams to successfully and easily fit at the same time, the cosmological parameters, cluster physics, and the survey selection, by involving all detected clusters. The accuracy levels quoted should not be considered as definitive. A number of simplifying hypotheses were made for the testing purpose, but this should affect any method in the same way. The next publication will consider in greater detail the impact of cluster shapes (selection and measurements) and of cluster physics on the final error budget by means of hydrodynamical simulations.

Application of the quantum spin glass theory to image restoration.

PubMed

Inoue, J I

2001-04-01

Quantum fluctuation is introduced into the Markov random-field model for image restoration in the context of a Bayesian approach. We investigate the dependence of the quantum fluctuation on the quality of a black and white image restoration by making use of statistical mechanics. We find that the maximum posterior marginal (MPM) estimate based on the quantum fluctuation gives a fine restoration in comparison with the maximum a posteriori estimate or the thermal fluctuation based MPM estimate.

Covariation bias for food-related control is associated with eating disorders symptoms in normal adolescents.

PubMed

Mayer, Birgit; Muris, Peter; Kramer Freher, Nancy; Stout, Janne; Polak, Marike

2012-12-01

Covariation bias refers to the phenomenon of overestimating the contingency between certain stimuli and negative outcomes, which is considered as a heuristic playing a role in the maintenance of certain types of psychopathology. In the present study, covariation bias was investigated within the context of eating pathology. In a sample of 148 adolescents (101 girls, 47 boys; mean age 15.3 years), a priori and a posteriori contingencies were measured between words referring to control and loss of control over eating behavior, on the one hand, and fear, disgust, positive and neutral outcomes, on the other hand. Results indicated that all adolescents displayed an a priori covariation bias reflecting an overestimation of the contingency of words referring to loss of control over eating behavior and fear- and disgust-relevant outcomes, while words referring to control over eating behavior were more often associated with positive and neutral outcomes. This bias was unrelated to level of eating disorder symptoms. In the case of a posteriori contingency estimates no overall bias could be observed, but some evidence was found indicating that girls with higher levels of eating disorder symptoms displayed a stronger covariation bias. These findings provide further support for the notion that covariation bias is involved in eating pathology, and also demonstrate that this type of cognitive distortion is already present in adolescents. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Population pharmacokinetics applied to optimising cisplatin doses in cancer patients].

PubMed

Ramón-López, A; Escudero-Ortiz, V; Carbonell, V; Pérez-Ruixo, J J; Valenzuela, B

2012-01-01

To develop and internally validate a population pharmacokinetics model for cisplatin and assess its prediction capacity for personalising doses in cancer patients. Cisplatin plasma concentrations in forty-six cancer patients were used to determine the pharmacokinetic parameters of a two-compartment pharmacokinetic model implemented in NONMEN VI software. Pharmacokinetic parameter identification capacity was assessed using the parametric bootstrap method and the model was validated using the nonparametric bootstrap method and standardised visual and numerical predictive checks. The final model's prediction capacity was evaluated in terms of accuracy and precision during the first (a priori) and second (a posteriori) chemotherapy cycles. Mean population cisplatin clearance is 1.03 L/h with an interpatient variability of 78.0%. Estimated distribution volume at steady state was 48.3 L, with inter- and intrapatient variabilities of 31,3% and 11,7%, respectively. Internal validation confirmed that the population pharmacokinetics model is appropriate to describe changes over time in cisplatin plasma concentrations, as well as its variability in the study population. The accuracy and precision of a posteriori prediction of cisplatin concentrations improved by 21% and 54% compared to a priori prediction. The population pharmacokinetic model developed adequately described the changes in cisplatin plasma concentrations in cancer patients and can be used to optimise cisplatin dosing regimes accurately and precisely. Copyright © 2011 SEFH. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Slow Learner Errors Analysis in Solving Fractions Problems in Inclusive Junior High School Class

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Novitasari, N.; Lukito, A.; Ekawati, R.

2018-01-01

A slow learner whose IQ is between 71 and 89 will have difficulties in solving mathematics problems that often lead to errors. The errors could be analyzed to where the errors may occur and its type. This research is qualitative descriptive which aims to describe the locations, types, and causes of slow learner errors in the inclusive junior high school class in solving the fraction problem. The subject of this research is one slow learner of seventh-grade student which was selected through direct observation by the researcher and through discussion with mathematics teacher and special tutor which handles the slow learner students. Data collection methods used in this study are written tasks and semistructured interviews. The collected data was analyzed by Newman’s Error Analysis (NEA). Results show that there are four locations of errors, namely comprehension, transformation, process skills, and encoding errors. There are four types of errors, such as concept, principle, algorithm, and counting errors. The results of this error analysis will help teachers to identify the causes of the errors made by the slow learner.

New dimension analyses with error analysis for quaking aspen and black spruce

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woods, K. D.; Botkin, D. B.; Feiveson, A. H.

1987-01-01

Dimension analysis for black spruce in wetland stands and trembling aspen are reported, including new approaches in error analysis. Biomass estimates for sacrificed trees have standard errors of 1 to 3%; standard errors for leaf areas are 10 to 20%. Bole biomass estimation accounts for most of the error for biomass, while estimation of branch characteristics and area/weight ratios accounts for the leaf area error. Error analysis provides insight for cost effective design of future analyses. Predictive equations for biomass and leaf area, with empirically derived estimators of prediction error, are given. Systematic prediction errors for small aspen trees and for leaf area of spruce from different site-types suggest a need for different predictive models within species. Predictive equations are compared with published equations; significant differences may be due to species responses to regional or site differences. Proportional contributions of component biomass in aspen change in ways related to tree size and stand development. Spruce maintains comparatively constant proportions with size, but shows changes corresponding to site. This suggests greater morphological plasticity of aspen and significance for spruce of nutrient conditions.

Addressing the unit of analysis in medical care studies: a systematic review.

PubMed

Calhoun, Aaron W; Guyatt, Gordon H; Cabana, Michael D; Lu, Downing; Turner, David A; Valentine, Stacey; Randolph, Adrienne G

2008-06-01

We assessed the frequency that patients are incorrectly used as the unit of analysis among studies of physicians' patient care behavior in articles published in high impact journals. We surveyed 30 high-impact journals across 6 medical fields for articles susceptible to unit of analysis errors published from 1994 to 2005. Three reviewers independently abstracted articles using previously published criteria to determine the presence of analytic errors. One hundred fourteen susceptible articles were found published in 15 journals, 4 journals published the majority (71 of 114 or 62.3%) of studies, 40 were intervention studies, and 74 were noninterventional studies. The unit of analysis error was present in 19 (48%) of the intervention studies and 31 (42%) of the noninterventional studies (overall error rate 44%). The frequency of the error decreased between 1994-1999 (N = 38; 65% error) and 2000-2005 (N = 76; 33% error) (P = 0.001). Although the frequency of the error in published studies is decreasing, further improvement remains desirable.

First-order approximation error analysis of Risley-prism-based beam directing system.

PubMed

Zhao, Yanyan; Yuan, Yan

2014-12-01

To improve the performance of a Risley-prism system for optical detection and measuring applications, it is necessary to be able to determine the direction of the outgoing beam with high accuracy. In previous works, error sources and their impact on the performance of the Risley-prism system have been analyzed, but their numerical approximation accuracy was not high. Besides, pointing error analysis of the Risley-prism system has provided results for the case when the component errors, prism orientation errors, and assembly errors are certain. In this work, the prototype of a Risley-prism system was designed. The first-order approximations of the error analysis were derived and compared with the exact results. The directing errors of a Risley-prism system associated with wedge-angle errors, prism mounting errors, and bearing assembly errors were analyzed based on the exact formula and the first-order approximation. The comparisons indicated that our first-order approximation is accurate. In addition, the combined errors produced by the wedge-angle errors and mounting errors of the two prisms together were derived and in both cases were proved to be the sum of errors caused by the first and the second prism separately. Based on these results, the system error of our prototype was estimated. The derived formulas can be implemented to evaluate beam directing errors of any Risley-prism beam directing system with a similar configuration.

Influence of Tooth Spacing Error on Gears With and Without Profile Modifications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Padmasolala, Giri; Lin, Hsiang H.; Oswald, Fred B.

2000-01-01

A computer simulation was conducted to investigate the effectiveness of profile modification for reducing dynamic loads in gears with different tooth spacing errors. The simulation examined varying amplitudes of spacing error and differences in the span of teeth over which the error occurs. The modification considered included both linear and parabolic tip relief. The analysis considered spacing error that varies around most of the gear circumference (similar to a typical sinusoidal error pattern) as well as a shorter span of spacing errors that occurs on only a few teeth. The dynamic analysis was performed using a revised version of a NASA gear dynamics code, modified to add tooth spacing errors to the analysis. Results obtained from the investigation show that linear tip relief is more effective in reducing dynamic loads on gears with small spacing errors but parabolic tip relief becomes more effective as the amplitude of spacing error increases. In addition, the parabolic modification is more effective for the more severe error case where the error is spread over a longer span of teeth. The findings of this study can be used to design robust tooth profile modification for improving dynamic performance of gear sets with different tooth spacing errors.

Evaluating a 3-D transport model of atmospheric CO2 using ground-based, aircraft, and space-borne data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, L.; Palmer, P. I.; Yang, Y.; Yantosca, R. M.; Kawa, S. R.; Paris, J.-D.; Matsueda, H.; Machida, T.

2011-03-01

We evaluate the GEOS-Chem atmospheric transport model (v8-02-01) of CO2 over 2003-2006, driven by GEOS-4 and GEOS-5 meteorology from the NASA Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office, using surface, aircraft and space-borne concentration measurements of CO2. We use an established ensemble Kalman Filter to estimate a posteriori biospheric+biomass burning (BS + BB) and oceanic (OC) CO2 fluxes from 22 geographical regions, following the TransCom-3 protocol, using boundary layer CO2 data from a subset of GLOBALVIEW surface sites. Global annual net BS + BB + OC CO2 fluxes over 2004-2006 for GEOS-4 (GEOS-5) meteorology are -4.4 ± 0.9 (-4.2 ± 0.9), -3.9 ± 0.9 (-4.5 ± 0.9), and -5.2 ± 0.9 (-4.9 ± 0.9) PgC yr-1, respectively. After taking into account anthropogenic fossil fuel and bio-fuel emissions, the global annual net CO2 emissions for 2004-2006 are estimated to be 4.0 ± 0.9 (4.2 ± 0.9), 4.8 ± 0.9 (4.2 ± 0.9), and 3.8 ± 0.9 (4.1 ± 0.9) PgC yr-1, respectively. The estimated 3-yr total net emission for GEOS-4 (GEOS-5) meteorology is equal to 12.5 (12.4) PgC, agreeing with other recent top-down estimates (12-13 PgC). The regional a posteriori fluxes are broadly consistent in the sign and magnitude of the TransCom-3 study for 1992-1996, but we find larger net sinks over northern and southern continents. We find large departures from our a priori over Europe during summer 2003, over temperate Eurasia during 2004, and over North America during 2005, reflecting an incomplete description of terrestrial carbon dynamics. We find GEOS-4 (GEOS-5) a posteriori CO2 concentrations reproduce the observed surface trend of 1.91-2.43 ppm yr-1 (parts per million per year), depending on latitude, within 0.15 ppm yr-1 (0.2 ppm yr-1) and the seasonal cycle within 0.2 ppm (0.2 ppm) at all latitudes. We find the a posteriori model reproduces the aircraft vertical profile measurements of CO2 over North America and Siberia generally within 1.5 ppm in the free and upper troposphere but can be biased by up to 4-5 ppm in the boundary layer at the start and end of the growing season. The model has a small negative bias in the free troposphere CO2 trend (1.95-2.19 ppm yr-1) compared to AIRS data which has a trend of 2.21-2.63 ppm yr-1 during 2004-2006, consistent with surface data. Model CO2 concentrations in the upper troposphere, evaluated using CONTRAIL (Comprehensive Observation Network for TRace gases by AIrLiner) aircraft measurements, reproduce the magnitude and phase of the seasonal cycle of CO2 in both hemispheres. We generally find that the GEOS meteorology reproduces much of the observed tropospheric CO2 variability, suggesting that these meteorological fields will help make significant progress in understanding carbon fluxes as more data become available.

Exploring the impact of forcing error characteristics on physically based snow simulations within a global sensitivity analysis framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Raleigh, M. S.; Lundquist, J. D.; Clark, M. P.

2015-07-01

Physically based models provide insights into key hydrologic processes but are associated with uncertainties due to deficiencies in forcing data, model parameters, and model structure. Forcing uncertainty is enhanced in snow-affected catchments, where weather stations are scarce and prone to measurement errors, and meteorological variables exhibit high variability. Hence, there is limited understanding of how forcing error characteristics affect simulations of cold region hydrology and which error characteristics are most important. Here we employ global sensitivity analysis to explore how (1) different error types (i.e., bias, random errors), (2) different error probability distributions, and (3) different error magnitudes influence physically based simulations of four snow variables (snow water equivalent, ablation rates, snow disappearance, and sublimation). We use the Sobol' global sensitivity analysis, which is typically used for model parameters but adapted here for testing model sensitivity to coexisting errors in all forcings. We quantify the Utah Energy Balance model's sensitivity to forcing errors with 1 840 000 Monte Carlo simulations across four sites and five different scenarios. Model outputs were (1) consistently more sensitive to forcing biases than random errors, (2) generally less sensitive to forcing error distributions, and (3) critically sensitive to different forcings depending on the relative magnitude of errors. For typical error magnitudes found in areas with drifting snow, precipitation bias was the most important factor for snow water equivalent, ablation rates, and snow disappearance timing, but other forcings had a more dominant impact when precipitation uncertainty was due solely to gauge undercatch. Additionally, the relative importance of forcing errors depended on the model output of interest. Sensitivity analysis can reveal which forcing error characteristics matter most for hydrologic modeling.

Shape-intensity prior level set combining probabilistic atlas and probability map constrains for automatic liver segmentation from abdominal CT images.

PubMed

Wang, Jinke; Cheng, Yuanzhi; Guo, Changyong; Wang, Yadong; Tamura, Shinichi

2016-05-01

Propose a fully automatic 3D segmentation framework to segment liver on challenging cases that contain the low contrast of adjacent organs and the presence of pathologies from abdominal CT images. First, all of the atlases are weighted in the selected training datasets by calculating the similarities between the atlases and the test image to dynamically generate a subject-specific probabilistic atlas for the test image. The most likely liver region of the test image is further determined based on the generated atlas. A rough segmentation is obtained by a maximum a posteriori classification of probability map, and the final liver segmentation is produced by a shape-intensity prior level set in the most likely liver region. Our method is evaluated and demonstrated on 25 test CT datasets from our partner site, and its results are compared with two state-of-the-art liver segmentation methods. Moreover, our performance results on 10 MICCAI test datasets are submitted to the organizers for comparison with the other automatic algorithms. Using the 25 test CT datasets, average symmetric surface distance is [Formula: see text] mm (range 0.62-2.12 mm), root mean square symmetric surface distance error is [Formula: see text] mm (range 0.97-3.01 mm), and maximum symmetric surface distance error is [Formula: see text] mm (range 12.73-26.67 mm) by our method. Our method on 10 MICCAI test data sets ranks 10th in all the 47 automatic algorithms on the site as of July 2015. Quantitative results, as well as qualitative comparisons of segmentations, indicate that our method is a promising tool to improve the efficiency of both techniques. The applicability of the proposed method to some challenging clinical problems and the segmentation of the liver are demonstrated with good results on both quantitative and qualitative experimentations. This study suggests that the proposed framework can be good enough to replace the time-consuming and tedious slice-by-slice manual segmentation approach.

Trellises and Trellis-Based Decoding Algorithms for Linear Block Codes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lin, Shu

1998-01-01

A code trellis is a graphical representation of a code, block or convolutional, in which every path represents a codeword (or a code sequence for a convolutional code). This representation makes it possible to implement Maximum Likelihood Decoding (MLD) of a code with reduced decoding complexity. The most well known trellis-based MLD algorithm is the Viterbi algorithm. The trellis representation was first introduced and used for convolutional codes [23]. This representation, together with the Viterbi decoding algorithm, has resulted in a wide range of applications of convolutional codes for error control in digital communications over the last two decades. There are two major reasons for this inactive period of research in this area. First, most coding theorists at that time believed that block codes did not have simple trellis structure like convolutional codes and maximum likelihood decoding of linear block codes using the Viterbi algorithm was practically impossible, except for very short block codes. Second, since almost all of the linear block codes are constructed algebraically or based on finite geometries, it was the belief of many coding theorists that algebraic decoding was the only way to decode these codes. These two reasons seriously hindered the development of efficient soft-decision decoding methods for linear block codes and their applications to error control in digital communications. This led to a general belief that block codes are inferior to convolutional codes and hence, that they were not useful. Chapter 2 gives a brief review of linear block codes. The goal is to provide the essential background material for the development of trellis structure and trellis-based decoding algorithms for linear block codes in the later chapters. Chapters 3 through 6 present the fundamental concepts, finite-state machine model, state space formulation, basic structural properties, state labeling, construction procedures, complexity, minimality, and sectionalization of trellises. Chapter 7 discusses trellis decomposition and subtrellises for low-weight codewords. Chapter 8 first presents well known methods for constructing long powerful codes from short component codes or component codes of smaller dimensions, and then provides methods for constructing their trellises which include Shannon and Cartesian product techniques. Chapter 9 deals with convolutional codes, puncturing, zero-tail termination and tail-biting.Chapters 10 through 13 present various trellis-based decoding algorithms, old and new. Chapter 10 first discusses the application of the well known Viterbi decoding algorithm to linear block codes, optimum sectionalization of a code trellis to minimize computation complexity, and design issues for IC (integrated circuit) implementation of a Viterbi decoder. Then it presents a new decoding algorithm for convolutional codes, named Differential Trellis Decoding (DTD) algorithm. Chapter 12 presents a suboptimum reliability-based iterative decoding algorithm with a low-weight trellis search for the most likely codeword. This decoding algorithm provides a good trade-off between error performance and decoding complexity. All the decoding algorithms presented in Chapters 10 through 12 are devised to minimize word error probability. Chapter 13 presents decoding algorithms that minimize bit error probability and provide the corresponding soft (reliability) information at the output of the decoder. Decoding algorithms presented are the MAP (maximum a posteriori probability) decoding algorithm and the Soft-Output Viterbi Algorithm (SOVA) algorithm. Finally, the minimization of bit error probability in trellis-based MLD is discussed.

On the thresholds in modeling of high flows via artificial neural networks - A bootstrapping analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Panagoulia, D.; Trichakis, I.

2012-04-01

Considering the growing interest in simulating hydrological phenomena with artificial neural networks (ANNs), it is useful to figure out the potential and limits of these models. In this study, the main objective is to examine how to improve the ability of an ANN model to simulate extreme values of flow utilizing a priori knowledge of threshold values. A three-layer feedforward ANN was trained by using the back propagation algorithm and the logistic function as activation function. By using the thresholds, the flow was partitioned in low (x < μ), medium (μ ≤ x ≤ μ + 2σ) and high (x > μ + 2σ) values. The employed ANN model was trained for high flow partition and all flow data too. The developed methodology was implemented over a mountainous river catchment (the Mesochora catchment in northwestern Greece). The ANN model received as inputs pseudo-precipitation (rain plus melt) and previous observed flow data. After the training was completed the bootstrapping methodology was applied to calculate the ANN confidence intervals (CIs) for a 95% nominal coverage. The calculated CIs included only the uncertainty, which comes from the calibration procedure. The results showed that an ANN model trained specifically for high flows, with a priori knowledge of the thresholds, can simulate these extreme values much better (RMSE is 31.4% less) than an ANN model trained with all data of the available time series and using a posteriori threshold values. On the other hand the width of CIs increases by 54.9% with a simultaneous increase by 64.4% of the actual coverage for the high flows (a priori partition). The narrower CIs of the high flows trained with all data may be attributed to the smoothing effect produced from the use of the full data sets. Overall, the results suggest that an ANN model trained with a priori knowledge of the threshold values has an increased ability in simulating extreme values compared with an ANN model trained with all the data and a posteriori knowledge of the thresholds.

Effects of measurement errors on psychometric measurements in ergonomics studies: Implications for correlations, ANOVA, linear regression, factor analysis, and linear discriminant analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Yan; Salvendy, Gavriel

2009-05-01

This paper aims to demonstrate the effects of measurement errors on psychometric measurements in ergonomics studies. A variety of sources can cause random measurement errors in ergonomics studies and these errors can distort virtually every statistic computed and lead investigators to erroneous conclusions. The effects of measurement errors on five most widely used statistical analysis tools have been discussed and illustrated: correlation; ANOVA; linear regression; factor analysis; linear discriminant analysis. It has been shown that measurement errors can greatly attenuate correlations between variables, reduce statistical power of ANOVA, distort (overestimate, underestimate or even change the sign of) regression coefficients, underrate the explanation contributions of the most important factors in factor analysis and depreciate the significance of discriminant function and discrimination abilities of individual variables in discrimination analysis. The discussions will be restricted to subjective scales and survey methods and their reliability estimates. Other methods applied in ergonomics research, such as physical and electrophysiological measurements and chemical and biomedical analysis methods, also have issues of measurement errors, but they are beyond the scope of this paper. As there has been increasing interest in the development and testing of theories in ergonomics research, it has become very important for ergonomics researchers to understand the effects of measurement errors on their experiment results, which the authors believe is very critical to research progress in theory development and cumulative knowledge in the ergonomics field.

The Infinitesimal Jackknife with Exploratory Factor Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Guangjian; Preacher, Kristopher J.; Jennrich, Robert I.

2012-01-01

The infinitesimal jackknife, a nonparametric method for estimating standard errors, has been used to obtain standard error estimates in covariance structure analysis. In this article, we adapt it for obtaining standard errors for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations in exploratory factor analysis with sample correlation matrices. Both…

Color lensless digital holographic microscopy with micrometer resolution.

PubMed

Garcia-Sucerquia, Jorge

2012-05-15

Color digital lensless holographic microscopy with micrometer resolution is presented. Multiwavelength illumination of a biological sample and a posteriori color composition of the amplitude images individually reconstructed are used to obtain full-color representation of the microscopic specimen. To match the sizes of the reconstructed holograms for each wavelength, a reconstruction algorithm that allows for choosing the pixel size at the reconstruction plane independently of the wavelength and the reconstruction distance is used. The method is illustrated with experimental results.

Wealth dynamics in a sentiment-driven market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goykhman, Mikhail

2017-12-01

We study dynamics of a simulated world with stock and money, driven by the externally given processes which we refer to as sentiments. The considered sentiments influence the buy/sell stock trading attitude, the perceived price uncertainty, and the trading intensity of all or a part of the market participants. We study how the wealth of market participants evolves in time in such an environment. We discuss the opposite perspective in which the parameters of the sentiment processes can be inferred a posteriori from the observed market behavior.

Eulerian Time-Domain Filtering for Spatial LES

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pruett, C. David

1997-01-01

Eulerian time-domain filtering seems to be appropriate for LES (large eddy simulation) of flows whose large coherent structures convect approximately at a common characteristic velocity; e.g., mixing layers, jets, and wakes. For these flows, we develop an approach to LES based on an explicit second-order digital Butterworth filter, which is applied in,the time domain in an Eulerian context. The approach is validated through a priori and a posteriori analyses of the simulated flow of a heated, subsonic, axisymmetric jet.

A Posteriori Quantification of Rate-Controlling Effects from High-Intensity Turbulence-Flame Interactions Using 4D Measurements

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-11-22

Unclassified REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form ApprovedOMB No. 0704-0188 The public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1...compact at all conditions tested, as indicated by the overlap of OH and CH2O distributions. 5. We developed analytical techniques for pseudo- Lagrangian ...condition in a constant density flow requires that the flow divergence is zero, ∇ · ~u = 0. Three smoothing schemes were examined, a moving average (i.e

Effects of Tropospheric Spatio-Temporal Correlated Noise on the Analysis of Space Geodetic Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Romero-Wolf, A. F.; Jacobs, C. S.

2011-01-01

The standard VLBI analysis models measurement noise as purely thermal errors modeled according to uncorrelated Gaussian distributions. As the price of recording bits steadily decreases, thermal errors will soon no longer dominate. It is therefore expected that troposphere and instrumentation/clock errors will increasingly become more dominant. Given that both of these errors have correlated spectra, properly modeling the error distributions will become more relevant for optimal analysis. This paper will discuss the advantages of including the correlations between tropospheric delays using a Kolmogorov spectrum and the frozen ow model pioneered by Treuhaft and Lanyi. We will show examples of applying these correlated noise spectra to the weighting of VLBI data analysis.

Quantitative Analysis Tools and Digital Phantoms for Deformable Image Registration Quality Assurance.

PubMed

Kim, Haksoo; Park, Samuel B; Monroe, James I; Traughber, Bryan J; Zheng, Yiran; Lo, Simon S; Yao, Min; Mansur, David; Ellis, Rodney; Machtay, Mitchell; Sohn, Jason W

2015-08-01

This article proposes quantitative analysis tools and digital phantoms to quantify intrinsic errors of deformable image registration (DIR) systems and establish quality assurance (QA) procedures for clinical use of DIR systems utilizing local and global error analysis methods with clinically realistic digital image phantoms. Landmark-based image registration verifications are suitable only for images with significant feature points. To address this shortfall, we adapted a deformation vector field (DVF) comparison approach with new analysis techniques to quantify the results. Digital image phantoms are derived from data sets of actual patient images (a reference image set, R, a test image set, T). Image sets from the same patient taken at different times are registered with deformable methods producing a reference DVFref. Applying DVFref to the original reference image deforms T into a new image R'. The data set, R', T, and DVFref, is from a realistic truth set and therefore can be used to analyze any DIR system and expose intrinsic errors by comparing DVFref and DVFtest. For quantitative error analysis, calculating and delineating differences between DVFs, 2 methods were used, (1) a local error analysis tool that displays deformation error magnitudes with color mapping on each image slice and (2) a global error analysis tool that calculates a deformation error histogram, which describes a cumulative probability function of errors for each anatomical structure. Three digital image phantoms were generated from three patients with a head and neck, a lung and a liver cancer. The DIR QA was evaluated using the case with head and neck. © The Author(s) 2014.

Analysis of measured data of human body based on error correcting frequency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jin, Aiyan; Peipei, Gao; Shang, Xiaomei

2014-04-01

Anthropometry is to measure all parts of human body surface, and the measured data is the basis of analysis and study of the human body, establishment and modification of garment size and formulation and implementation of online clothing store. In this paper, several groups of the measured data are gained, and analysis of data error is gotten by analyzing the error frequency and using analysis of variance method in mathematical statistics method. Determination of the measured data accuracy and the difficulty of measured parts of human body, further studies of the causes of data errors, and summarization of the key points to minimize errors possibly are also mentioned in the paper. This paper analyses the measured data based on error frequency, and in a way , it provides certain reference elements to promote the garment industry development.

Error Analysis in Mathematics. Technical Report #1012

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lai, Cheng-Fei

2012-01-01

Error analysis is a method commonly used to identify the cause of student errors when they make consistent mistakes. It is a process of reviewing a student's work and then looking for patterns of misunderstanding. Errors in mathematics can be factual, procedural, or conceptual, and may occur for a number of reasons. Reasons why students make…

Error analysis in stereo vision for location measurement of 3D point

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yunting; Zhang, Jun; Tian, Jinwen

2015-12-01

Location measurement of 3D point in stereo vision is subjected to different sources of uncertainty that propagate to the final result. For current methods of error analysis, most of them are based on ideal intersection model to calculate the uncertainty region of point location via intersecting two fields of view of pixel that may produce loose bounds. Besides, only a few of sources of error such as pixel error or camera position are taken into account in the process of analysis. In this paper we present a straightforward and available method to estimate the location error that is taken most of source of error into account. We summed up and simplified all the input errors to five parameters by rotation transformation. Then we use the fast algorithm of midpoint method to deduce the mathematical relationships between target point and the parameters. Thus, the expectations and covariance matrix of 3D point location would be obtained, which can constitute the uncertainty region of point location. Afterwards, we turned back to the error propagation of the primitive input errors in the stereo system and throughout the whole analysis process from primitive input errors to localization error. Our method has the same level of computational complexity as the state-of-the-art method. Finally, extensive experiments are performed to verify the performance of our methods.

Multi-frame super-resolution with quality self-assessment for retinal fundus videos.

PubMed

Köhler, Thomas; Brost, Alexander; Mogalle, Katja; Zhang, Qianyi; Köhler, Christiane; Michelson, Georg; Hornegger, Joachim; Tornow, Ralf P

2014-01-01

This paper proposes a novel super-resolution framework to reconstruct high-resolution fundus images from multiple low-resolution video frames in retinal fundus imaging. Natural eye movements during an examination are used as a cue for super-resolution in a robust maximum a-posteriori scheme. In order to compensate heterogeneous illumination on the fundus, we integrate retrospective illumination correction for photometric registration to the underlying imaging model. Our method utilizes quality self-assessment to provide objective quality scores for reconstructed images as well as to select regularization parameters automatically. In our evaluation on real data acquired from six human subjects with a low-cost video camera, the proposed method achieved considerable enhancements of low-resolution frames and improved noise and sharpness characteristics by 74%. In terms of image analysis, we demonstrate the importance of our method for the improvement of automatic blood vessel segmentation as an example application, where the sensitivity was increased by 13% using super-resolution reconstruction.

Ecoregions and ecodistricts: Ecological regionalizations for the Netherlands' environmental policy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klijn, Frans; de Waal, Rein W.; Oude Voshaar, Jan H.

1995-11-01

For communicating data on the state of the environment to policy makers, various integrative frameworks are used, including regional integration. For this kind of integration we have developed two related ecological regionalizations, ecoregions and ecodistricts, which are two levels in a series of classifications for hierarchically nested ecosystems at different spatial scale levels. We explain the compilation of the maps from existing geographical data, demonstrating the relatively holistic, a priori integrated approach. The resulting maps are submitted to discriminant analysis to test the consistancy of the use of mapping characteristics, using data on individual abiotic ecosystem components from a national database on a 1-km2 grid. This reveals that the spatial patterns of soil, groundwater, and geomorphology correspond with the ecoregion and ecodistrict maps. Differences between the original maps and maps formed by automatically reclassifying 1-km2 cells with these discriminant components are found to be few. These differences are discussed against the background of the principal dilemma between deductive, a priori integrated, and inductive, a posteriori, classification.

Improved Topographic Mapping Through Multi-Baseline SAR Interferometry with MAP Estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Yuting; Jiang, Houjun; Zhang, Lu; Liao, Mingsheng; Shi, Xuguo

2015-05-01

There is an inherent contradiction between the sensitivity of height measurement and the accuracy of phase unwrapping for SAR interferometry (InSAR) over rough terrain. This contradiction can be resolved by multi-baseline InSAR analysis, which exploits multiple phase observations with different normal baselines to improve phase unwrapping accuracy, or even avoid phase unwrapping. In this paper we propose a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation method assisted by SRTM DEM data for multi-baseline InSAR topographic mapping. Based on our method, a data processing flow is established and applied in processing multi-baseline ALOS/PALSAR dataset. The accuracy of resultant DEMs is evaluated by using a standard Chinese national DEM of scale 1:10,000 as reference. The results show that multi-baseline InSAR can improve DEM accuracy compared with single-baseline case. It is noteworthy that phase unwrapping is avoided and the quality of multi-baseline InSAR DEM can meet the DTED-2 standard.

Estimating clinical chemistry reference values based on an existing data set of unselected animals.

PubMed

Dimauro, Corrado; Bonelli, Piero; Nicolussi, Paola; Rassu, Salvatore P G; Cappio-Borlino, Aldo; Pulina, Giuseppe

2008-11-01

In an attempt to standardise the determination of biological reference values, the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry (IFCC) has published a series of recommendations on developing reference intervals. The IFCC recommends the use of an a priori sampling of at least 120 healthy individuals. However, such a high number of samples and laboratory analysis is expensive, time-consuming and not always feasible, especially in veterinary medicine. In this paper, an alternative (a posteriori) method is described and is used to determine reference intervals for biochemical parameters of farm animals using an existing laboratory data set. The method used was based on the detection and removal of outliers to obtain a large sample of animals likely to be healthy from the existing data set. This allowed the estimation of reliable reference intervals for biochemical parameters in Sarda dairy sheep. This method may also be useful for the determination of reference intervals for different species, ages and gender.

Back to Normal! Gaussianizing posterior distributions for cosmological probes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuhmann, Robert L.; Joachimi, Benjamin; Peiris, Hiranya V.

2014-05-01

We present a method to map multivariate non-Gaussian posterior probability densities into Gaussian ones via nonlinear Box-Cox transformations, and generalizations thereof. This is analogous to the search for normal parameters in the CMB, but can in principle be applied to any probability density that is continuous and unimodal. The search for the optimally Gaussianizing transformation amongst the Box-Cox family is performed via a maximum likelihood formalism. We can judge the quality of the found transformation a posteriori: qualitatively via statistical tests of Gaussianity, and more illustratively by how well it reproduces the credible regions. The method permits an analytical reconstruction of the posterior from a sample, e.g. a Markov chain, and simplifies the subsequent joint analysis with other experiments. Furthermore, it permits the characterization of a non-Gaussian posterior in a compact and efficient way. The expression for the non-Gaussian posterior can be employed to find analytic formulae for the Bayesian evidence, and consequently be used for model comparison.

Prediction possibilities of Arosa total ozone

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kane, R. P.

1987-01-01

Using the periodicities obtained by a Maximum Entropy Spectral Analysis (MESA) of the Arosa total ozone data ( CC') series for 1932 1971, the values predicted for 1972 onwards were compared with the observed values of the ( AD) series. A change of level was noticed, with the observed ( AD) values lower by about 7 D.U. Also, the matching was poor in 1980, 1981, 1982. In the monthly values, the most prominent periodicity was the annual wave, comprising some 80% variance. In the 12 month running averages, the annual wave was eliminated and the most prominent periodicity was T=3.7 years, encompassing roundly 20% variance. This and other periodicities at T=4.7, 5.4, 6.2, 10 and 16 years were all statistically significant at a 3.5δ a priori i.e., 2δ a posteriori level. However, the predictions from these were unsatisfactory, probably because some of these periodicities may be transient i.e., changing amplitudes and/or phases with time. Thus, no meaningful prediction seem possible for Arosa total ozone.

The rural-urban effect on spatial genetic structure of type II Toxoplasma gondii strains involved in human congenital toxoplasmosis, France, 2002-2009.

PubMed

Ajzenberg, Daniel; Collinet, Frédéric; Aubert, Dominique; Villena, Isabelle; Dardé, Marie-Laure; Devillard, Sébastien

2015-12-01

Congenital toxoplasmosis involves Toxoplasma gondii type II strains in 95% of cases in France. We used spatial principal component analysis (sPCA) and 15 microsatellite markers to investigate the spatial genetic structure of type II strains involved in 240 cases of congenital toxoplasmosis in France from 2002 through 2009. Mailing addresses of patients were geo-referenced a posteriori in decimal degrees and categorized into urban or rural areas of residence. No spatial genetic structure was found for type II strains that infected mothers who were living in urban areas, but a global spatial genetic structure was found for those that infected mothers who were living in a rural environment. Our results suggest that sources of infection by T. gondii are different in rural and urban areas in France, and advocate for targeted messages in the prevention of toxoplasmosis according to the type of residence of susceptible people. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Social support, stress, health, and academic success in Ghanaian adolescents: a path analysis.

PubMed

Glozah, Franklin N; Pevalin, David J

2014-06-01

The aim of this study is to gain a better understanding of the role psychosocial factors play in promoting the health and academic success of adolescents. A total of 770 adolescent boys and girls in Senior High Schools were randomly selected to complete a self-report questionnaire. School reported latest terminal examination grades were used as the measure of academic success. Structural equation modelling indicated a relatively good fit to the posteriori model with four of the hypothesised paths fully supported and two partially supported. Perceived social support was negatively related to stress and predictive of health and wellbeing but not academic success. Stress was predictive of health but not academic success. Finally, health and wellbeing was able to predict academic success. These findings have policy implications regarding efforts aimed at promoting the health and wellbeing as well as the academic success of adolescents in Ghana. Copyright © 2014 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Joint deconvolution and classification with applications to passive acoustic underwater multipath.

PubMed

Anderson, Hyrum S; Gupta, Maya R

2008-11-01

This paper addresses the problem of classifying signals that have been corrupted by noise and unknown linear time-invariant (LTI) filtering such as multipath, given labeled uncorrupted training signals. A maximum a posteriori approach to the deconvolution and classification is considered, which produces estimates of the desired signal, the unknown channel, and the class label. For cases in which only a class label is needed, the classification accuracy can be improved by not committing to an estimate of the channel or signal. A variant of the quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA) classifier is proposed that probabilistically accounts for the unknown LTI filtering, and which avoids deconvolution. The proposed QDA classifier can work either directly on the signal or on features whose transformation by LTI filtering can be analyzed; as an example a classifier for subband-power features is derived. Results on simulated data and real Bowhead whale vocalizations show that jointly considering deconvolution with classification can dramatically improve classification performance over traditional methods over a range of signal-to-noise ratios.

Biophysical functionality in polysaccharides: from Lego-blocks to nano-particles.

PubMed

Cesàro, Attilio; Bellich, Barbara; Borgogna, Massimiliano

2012-04-01

The objective of the paper is to show the very important biophysical concepts that have been developed with polysaccharides. In particular, an attempt will be made to relate "a posteriori" the fundamental aspects, both experimental and theoretical, with some industrial applications of polysaccharide-based materials. The overview of chain conformational aspects includes relationships between topological features and local dynamics, exemplified for some naturally occurring carbohydrate polymers. Thus, by using simulation techniques and computational studies, the physicochemical properties of aqueous solutions of polysaccharides are interpreted. The relevance of conformational disorder-order transitions, chain aggregation, and phase separation to the underlying role of the ionic contribution to these processes is discussed. We stress the importance of combining information from analysis of experimental data with that from statistical-thermodynamic models for understanding the conformation, size, and functional stability of industrially important polysaccharides. The peculiar properties of polysaccharides in industrial applications are summarized for the particularly important example of nanoparticles production, a field of growing relevance and scientific interest.

Characterization of cumulus cloud fields using trajectories in the center of gravity versus water mass phase space: 1. Cloud tracking and phase space description: CENTER OF GRAVITY VERSUS WATER MASS 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Heiblum, Reuven H.; Altaratz, Orit; Koren, Ilan

We study the evolution of warm convective cloud fields using large eddy simulations of continental and trade cumulus. Individual clouds are tracked a posteriori from formation to dissipation using a 3D cloud tracking algorithm and results are presented in the phase- space of center of gravity altitude versus cloud liquid water mass (CvM space). The CvM space is shown to contain rich information on cloud field characteristics, cloud morphology, and common cloud development pathways, together facilitating a comprehensive understanding of the cloud field. In this part we show how the meteorological (thermodynamic) conditions that determine the cloud properties are projectedmore » on the CvM phase space and how changes in the initial conditions affect the clouds' trajectories in this space. This part sets the stage for a detailed microphysical analysis that will be shown in part II.« less

Cost-effectiveness evaluation of vaccination against Haemophilus influenzae invasive diseases in France.

PubMed

Livartowski, A; Boucher, J; Detournay, B; Reinert, P

1996-04-01

A cost-effectiveness analysis of a vaccination program against Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) was conducted using French epidemiological data. The vaccine would be added as a fifth valence to the tetravalent vaccines (DTCP) widely used in France. The permanent sequelae of the Hib invasive diseases which might be avoided by vaccination were weighted to determine Quality Adjusted Life Years gained. In a stable French population of 3,746,000 children aged < 5 years old (1990), and for a followup period of ten years, the cost-effectiveness ratio of such a program for the French national health insurance system would equal 54,084 FF per year of life added or 34,050 FF per QALY. The net cost of the program during that period would be 1.02 billion FF for the French national health insurance system and 920 million FF for patients' families. Comparison of these projections with available information supports, a posteriori, the decision of the French government to authorize the licensing of the pentavalent vaccine.

Interpreting Epidemiological Evidence in the Presence of Multiple Endpoints: An Alternative Analytic Approach using the 9-Year Follow-up of the Seychelles Child Development Study

PubMed Central

van Wijngaarden, Edwin; Myers, Gary J.; Thurston, Sally W.; Shamlaye, Conrad F.; Davidson, Philip W.

2012-01-01

Purpose The potential for ill-informed causal inference is a major concern in published longitudinal studies evaluating impaired neurological function in children prenatally exposed to background levels of methyl mercury (MeHg). These studies evaluate a large number of developmental tests. We propose an alternative analysis strategy that reduces the number of comparisons tested in these studies. Methods Using data from the 9-year follow-up of 643 children in the Seychelles Child Development Study (SCDS), we grouped 18 individual endpoints into one overall ordinal outcome variable as well as by developmental domains. Subsequently, ordinal logistic regression analyses were performed. Results We did not find an association between prenatal MeHg exposure and developmental outcomes at 9 years of age. Conclusion Our proposed framework is more likely to result in a balanced interpretation of a posteriori associations. In addition, this new strategy should facilitate the use of complex epidemiological data in quantitative risk assessment. PMID:19205720

Interpreting epidemiological evidence in the presence of multiple endpoints: an alternative analytic approach using the 9-year follow-up of the Seychelles child development study.

PubMed

van Wijngaarden, Edwin; Myers, Gary J; Thurston, Sally W; Shamlaye, Conrad F; Davidson, Philip W

2009-08-01

The potential for ill-informed causal inference is a major concern in published longitudinal studies evaluating impaired neurological function in children prenatally exposed to background levels of methyl mercury (MeHg). These studies evaluate a large number of developmental tests. We propose an alternative analysis strategy that reduces the number of comparisons tested in these studies. Using data from the 9-year follow-up of 643 children in the Seychelles child development study, we grouped 18 individual endpoints into one overall ordinal outcome variable as well as by developmental domains. Subsequently, ordinal logistic regression analyses were performed. We did not find an association between prenatal MeHg exposure and developmental outcomes at 9 years of age. Our proposed framework is more likely to result in a balanced interpretation of a posteriori associations. In addition, this new strategy should facilitate the use of complex epidemiological data in quantitative risk assessment.

High-order polygonal discontinuous Petrov-Galerkin (PolyDPG) methods using ultraweak formulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaziri Astaneh, Ali; Fuentes, Federico; Mora, Jaime; Demkowicz, Leszek

2018-04-01

This work represents the first endeavor in using ultraweak formulations to implement high-order polygonal finite element methods via the discontinuous Petrov-Galerkin (DPG) methodology. Ultraweak variational formulations are nonstandard in that all the weight of the derivatives lies in the test space, while most of the trial space can be chosen as copies of $L^2$-discretizations that have no need to be continuous across adjacent elements. Additionally, the test spaces are broken along the mesh interfaces. This allows one to construct conforming polygonal finite element methods, termed here as PolyDPG methods, by defining most spaces by restriction of a bounding triangle or box to the polygonal element. The only variables that require nontrivial compatibility across elements are the so-called interface or skeleton variables, which can be defined directly on the element boundaries. Unlike other high-order polygonal methods, PolyDPG methods do not require ad hoc stabilization terms thanks to the crafted stability of the DPG methodology. A proof of convergence of the form $h^p$ is provided and corroborated through several illustrative numerical examples. These include polygonal meshes with $n$-sided convex elements and with highly distorted concave elements, as well as the modeling of discontinuous material properties along an arbitrary interface that cuts a uniform grid. Since PolyDPG methods have a natural a posteriori error estimator a polygonal adaptive strategy is developed and compared to standard adaptivity schemes based on constrained hanging nodes. This work is also accompanied by an open-source $\\texttt{PolyDPG}$ software supporting polygonal and conventional elements.

An improved multilevel Monte Carlo method for estimating probability distribution functions in stochastic oil reservoir simulations

DOE PAGES

Lu, Dan; Zhang, Guannan; Webster, Clayton G.; ...

2016-12-30

In this paper, we develop an improved multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method for estimating cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) of a quantity of interest, coming from numerical approximation of large-scale stochastic subsurface simulations. Compared with Monte Carlo (MC) methods, that require a significantly large number of high-fidelity model executions to achieve a prescribed accuracy when computing statistical expectations, MLMC methods were originally proposed to significantly reduce the computational cost with the use of multifidelity approximations. The improved performance of the MLMC methods depends strongly on the decay of the variance of the integrand as the level increases. However, the main challengemore » in estimating CDFs is that the integrand is a discontinuous indicator function whose variance decays slowly. To address this difficult task, we approximate the integrand using a smoothing function that accelerates the decay of the variance. In addition, we design a novel a posteriori optimization strategy to calibrate the smoothing function, so as to balance the computational gain and the approximation error. The combined proposed techniques are integrated into a very general and practical algorithm that can be applied to a wide range of subsurface problems for high-dimensional uncertainty quantification, such as a fine-grid oil reservoir model considered in this effort. The numerical results reveal that with the use of the calibrated smoothing function, the improved MLMC technique significantly reduces the computational complexity compared to the standard MC approach. Finally, we discuss several factors that affect the performance of the MLMC method and provide guidance for effective and efficient usage in practice.« less

Robust Statistical Fusion of Image Labels

PubMed Central

Landman, Bennett A.; Asman, Andrew J.; Scoggins, Andrew G.; Bogovic, John A.; Xing, Fangxu; Prince, Jerry L.

2011-01-01

Image labeling and parcellation (i.e. assigning structure to a collection of voxels) are critical tasks for the assessment of volumetric and morphometric features in medical imaging data. The process of image labeling is inherently error prone as images are corrupted by noise and artifacts. Even expert interpretations are subject to subjectivity and the precision of the individual raters. Hence, all labels must be considered imperfect with some degree of inherent variability. One may seek multiple independent assessments to both reduce this variability and quantify the degree of uncertainty. Existing techniques have exploited maximum a posteriori statistics to combine data from multiple raters and simultaneously estimate rater reliabilities. Although quite successful, wide-scale application has been hampered by unstable estimation with practical datasets, for example, with label sets with small or thin objects to be labeled or with partial or limited datasets. As well, these approaches have required each rater to generate a complete dataset, which is often impossible given both human foibles and the typical turnover rate of raters in a research or clinical environment. Herein, we propose a robust approach to improve estimation performance with small anatomical structures, allow for missing data, account for repeated label sets, and utilize training/catch trial data. With this approach, numerous raters can label small, overlapping portions of a large dataset, and rater heterogeneity can be robustly controlled while simultaneously estimating a single, reliable label set and characterizing uncertainty. The proposed approach enables many individuals to collaborate in the construction of large datasets for labeling tasks (e.g., human parallel processing) and reduces the otherwise detrimental impact of rater unavailability. PMID:22010145

Controlling the Rate of GWAS False Discoveries

PubMed Central

Brzyski, Damian; Peterson, Christine B.; Sobczyk, Piotr; Candès, Emmanuel J.; Bogdan, Malgorzata; Sabatti, Chiara

2017-01-01

With the rise of both the number and the complexity of traits of interest, control of the false discovery rate (FDR) in genetic association studies has become an increasingly appealing and accepted target for multiple comparison adjustment. While a number of robust FDR-controlling strategies exist, the nature of this error rate is intimately tied to the precise way in which discoveries are counted, and the performance of FDR-controlling procedures is satisfactory only if there is a one-to-one correspondence between what scientists describe as unique discoveries and the number of rejected hypotheses. The presence of linkage disequilibrium between markers in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) often leads researchers to consider the signal associated to multiple neighboring SNPs as indicating the existence of a single genomic locus with possible influence on the phenotype. This a posteriori aggregation of rejected hypotheses results in inflation of the relevant FDR. We propose a novel approach to FDR control that is based on prescreening to identify the level of resolution of distinct hypotheses. We show how FDR-controlling strategies can be adapted to account for this initial selection both with theoretical results and simulations that mimic the dependence structure to be expected in GWAS. We demonstrate that our approach is versatile and useful when the data are analyzed using both tests based on single markers and multiple regression. We provide an R package that allows practitioners to apply our procedure on standard GWAS format data, and illustrate its performance on lipid traits in the North Finland Birth Cohort 66 cohort study. PMID:27784720

Controlling the Rate of GWAS False Discoveries.

PubMed

Brzyski, Damian; Peterson, Christine B; Sobczyk, Piotr; Candès, Emmanuel J; Bogdan, Malgorzata; Sabatti, Chiara

2017-01-01

With the rise of both the number and the complexity of traits of interest, control of the false discovery rate (FDR) in genetic association studies has become an increasingly appealing and accepted target for multiple comparison adjustment. While a number of robust FDR-controlling strategies exist, the nature of this error rate is intimately tied to the precise way in which discoveries are counted, and the performance of FDR-controlling procedures is satisfactory only if there is a one-to-one correspondence between what scientists describe as unique discoveries and the number of rejected hypotheses. The presence of linkage disequilibrium between markers in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) often leads researchers to consider the signal associated to multiple neighboring SNPs as indicating the existence of a single genomic locus with possible influence on the phenotype. This a posteriori aggregation of rejected hypotheses results in inflation of the relevant FDR. We propose a novel approach to FDR control that is based on prescreening to identify the level of resolution of distinct hypotheses. We show how FDR-controlling strategies can be adapted to account for this initial selection both with theoretical results and simulations that mimic the dependence structure to be expected in GWAS. We demonstrate that our approach is versatile and useful when the data are analyzed using both tests based on single markers and multiple regression. We provide an R package that allows practitioners to apply our procedure on standard GWAS format data, and illustrate its performance on lipid traits in the North Finland Birth Cohort 66 cohort study. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Calibration of a subcutaneous amperometric glucose sensor implanted for 7 days in diabetic patients. Part 2. Superiority of the one-point calibration method.

PubMed

Choleau, C; Klein, J C; Reach, G; Aussedat, B; Demaria-Pesce, V; Wilson, G S; Gifford, R; Ward, W K

2002-08-01

Calibration, i.e. the transformation in real time of the signal I(t) generated by the glucose sensor at time t into an estimation of glucose concentration G(t), represents a key issue for the development of a continuous glucose monitoring system. To compare two calibration procedures. In the one-point calibration, which assumes that I(o) is negligible, S is simply determined as the ratio I/G, and G(t) = I(t)/S. The two-point calibration consists in the determination of a sensor sensitivity S and of a background current I(o) by plotting two values of the sensor signal versus the concomitant blood glucose concentrations. The subsequent estimation of G(t) is given by G(t) = (I(t)-I(o))/S. A glucose sensor was implanted in the abdominal subcutaneous tissue of nine type 1 diabetic patients during 3 (n = 2) and 7 days (n = 7). The one-point calibration was performed a posteriori either once per day before breakfast, or twice per day before breakfast and dinner, or three times per day before each meal. The two-point calibration was performed each morning during breakfast. The percentages of points present in zones A and B of the Clarke Error Grid were significantly higher when the system was calibrated using the one-point calibration. Use of two one-point calibrations per day before meals was virtually as accurate as three one-point calibrations. This study demonstrates the feasibility of a simple method for calibrating a continuous glucose monitoring system.

Median network analysis of defectively sequenced entire mitochondrial genomes from early and contemporary disease studies.

PubMed

Bandelt, Hans-Jürgen; Yao, Yong-Gang; Bravi, Claudio M; Salas, Antonio; Kivisild, Toomas

2009-03-01

Sequence analysis of the mitochondrial genome has become a routine method in the study of mitochondrial diseases. Quite often, the sequencing efforts in the search of pathogenic or disease-associated mutations are affected by technical and interpretive problems, caused by sample mix-up, contamination, biochemical problems, incomplete sequencing, misdocumentation and insufficient reference to previously published data. To assess data quality in case studies of mitochondrial diseases, it is recommended to compare any mtDNA sequence under consideration to their phylogenetically closest lineages available in the Web. The median network method has proven useful for visualizing potential problems with the data. We contrast some early reports of complete mtDNA sequences to more recent total mtDNA sequencing efforts in studies of various mitochondrial diseases. We conclude that the quality of complete mtDNA sequences generated in the medical field in the past few years is somewhat unsatisfactory and may even fall behind that of pioneer manual sequencing in the early nineties. Our study provides a paradigm for an a posteriori evaluation of sequence quality and for detection of potential problems with inferring a pathogenic status of a particular mutation.

Restoration and analysis of amateur movies from the Kennedy assassination

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Breedlove, J.R.; Cannon, T.M.; Janney, D.H.

1980-01-01

Much of the evidence concerning the assassination of President Kennedy comes from amateur movies of the presidential motorcade. Two of the most revealing movies are those taken by the photographers Zapruder and Nix. Approximately 180 frames of the Zapruder film clearly show the general relation of persons in the presidential limousine. Many of the frames of interest were blurred by focus problems or by linear motion. The method of cepstral analysis was used to quantitatively measure the blur, followed by maximum a posteriori (MAP) restoration. Descriptions of these methods, complete with before-and-after examples from selected frames are given. The framesmore » were then available for studies of facial expressions, hand motions, etc. Numerous allegations charge that multiple gunmen played a role in an assassination plot. Multispectral analyses, adapted from studies of satellite imagery, show no evidence of an alleged rifle in the Zapruder film. Lastly, frame-averaging is used to reduce the noise in the Nix movie prior to MAP restoration. The restoration of the reduced-noise average frame more clearly shows that at least one of the alleged gunmen is only the light-and-shadow pattern beneath the trees.« less

Reconstructing the free-energy landscape of Met-enkephalin using dihedral principal component analysis and well-tempered metadynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sicard, François; Senet, Patrick

2013-06-01

Well-Tempered Metadynamics (WTmetaD) is an efficient method to enhance the reconstruction of the free-energy surface of proteins. WTmetaD guarantees a faster convergence in the long time limit in comparison with the standard metadynamics. It still suffers, however, from the same limitation, i.e., the non-trivial choice of pertinent collective variables (CVs). To circumvent this problem, we couple WTmetaD with a set of CVs generated from a dihedral Principal Component Analysis (dPCA) on the Ramachandran dihedral angles describing the backbone structure of the protein. The dPCA provides a generic method to extract relevant CVs built from internal coordinates, and does not depend on the alignment to an arbitrarily chosen reference structure as usual in Cartesian PCA. We illustrate the robustness of this method in the case of a reference model protein, the small and very diffusive Met-enkephalin pentapeptide. We propose a justification a posteriori of the considered number of CVs necessary to bias the metadynamics simulation in terms of the one-dimensional free-energy profiles associated with Ramachandran dihedral angles along the amino-acid sequence.

Reconstructing the free-energy landscape of Met-enkephalin using dihedral principal component analysis and well-tempered metadynamics.

PubMed

Sicard, François; Senet, Patrick

2013-06-21

Well-Tempered Metadynamics (WTmetaD) is an efficient method to enhance the reconstruction of the free-energy surface of proteins. WTmetaD guarantees a faster convergence in the long time limit in comparison with the standard metadynamics. It still suffers, however, from the same limitation, i.e., the non-trivial choice of pertinent collective variables (CVs). To circumvent this problem, we couple WTmetaD with a set of CVs generated from a dihedral Principal Component Analysis (dPCA) on the Ramachandran dihedral angles describing the backbone structure of the protein. The dPCA provides a generic method to extract relevant CVs built from internal coordinates, and does not depend on the alignment to an arbitrarily chosen reference structure as usual in Cartesian PCA. We illustrate the robustness of this method in the case of a reference model protein, the small and very diffusive Met-enkephalin pentapeptide. We propose a justification a posteriori of the considered number of CVs necessary to bias the metadynamics simulation in terms of the one-dimensional free-energy profiles associated with Ramachandran dihedral angles along the amino-acid sequence.

Particle Swarm Optimization algorithms for geophysical inversion, practical hints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia Gonzalo, E.; Fernandez Martinez, J.; Fernandez Alvarez, J.; Kuzma, H.; Menendez Perez, C.

2008-12-01

PSO is a stochastic optimization technique that has been successfully used in many different engineering fields. PSO algorithm can be physically interpreted as a stochastic damped mass-spring system (Fernandez Martinez and Garcia Gonzalo 2008). Based on this analogy we present a whole family of PSO algorithms and their respective first order and second order stability regions. Their performance is also checked using synthetic functions (Rosenbrock and Griewank) showing a degree of ill-posedness similar to that found in many geophysical inverse problems. Finally, we present the application of these algorithms to the analysis of a Vertical Electrical Sounding inverse problem associated to a seawater intrusion in a coastal aquifer in South Spain. We analyze the role of PSO parameters (inertia, local and global accelerations and discretization step), both in convergence curves and in the a posteriori sampling of the depth of an intrusion. Comparison is made with binary genetic algorithms and simulated annealing. As result of this analysis, practical hints are given to select the correct algorithm and to tune the corresponding PSO parameters. Fernandez Martinez, J.L., Garcia Gonzalo, E., 2008a. The generalized PSO: a new door to PSO evolution. Journal of Artificial Evolution and Applications. DOI:10.1155/2008/861275.

Pose determination of a blade implant in three dimensions from a single two-dimensional radiograph.

PubMed

Toti, Paolo; Barone, Antonio; Marconcini, Simone; Menchini-Fabris, Giovanni Battista; Martuscelli, Ranieri; Covani, Ugo

2018-05-01

The aim of the study was to introduce a mathematical method to estimate the correct pose of a blade by evaluating the radiographic features obtained from a single two-dimensional image. Blade-form implant bed preparation was performed using the piezosurgery device, and placement was attained with the use of magnetic mallet. The pose determination of the blade was described by means of three consecutive rotations defined by three angles of orientation (triplet φ, θ and ψ). Retrospective analysis on periapical radiographs was performed. This method was used to compare implant (axial length along the marker, i.e. the implant structure) vs angular correction factor (a trigonometric function of the triplet). The accuracy of the method was tested by generating two-dimensional radiographic simulations of the blades, which were then compared with the images of the implants as appearing on the real radiographs. Two patients had to be excluded from further evaluation because the values of the estimated pose angles showed a too-wide range to be effective for a good standardization of serial radiographs: intrapatient range from baseline to 1-year survey was > of a threshold determined by the clinicians (30°). The linear dependence between implant (CF°) and angular correction factor (CF^) was estimated by a robust linear regression, yielding the following coefficients: slope, 0.908; intercept, -0.092; and coefficient of determination, 0.924. The absolute error in accuracy was -0.29 ± 4.35, 0.23 ± 3.81 and 0.64 ± 1.18°, respectively, for the angles φ, θ and ψ. The present theoretical and experimental study established the possibility of determining, a posteriori, a unique triplet of angles (φ, θ and ψ) which described the pose of a blade upon a single two-dimensional radiograph, and of suggesting a method to detect cases in which the standardized geometric projection failed. The angular correction of the bone level yielded results very close to those obtained with an internal marker related to the implant length.

Safety and Performance Analysis of the Non-Radar Oceanic/Remote Airspace In-Trail Procedure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carreno, Victor A.; Munoz, Cesar A.

2007-01-01

This document presents a safety and performance analysis of the nominal case for the In-Trail Procedure (ITP) in a non-radar oceanic/remote airspace. The analysis estimates the risk of collision between the aircraft performing the ITP and a reference aircraft. The risk of collision is only estimated for the ITP maneuver and it is based on nominal operating conditions. The analysis does not consider human error, communication error conditions, or the normal risk of flight present in current operations. The hazards associated with human error and communication errors are evaluated in an Operational Hazards Analysis presented elsewhere.

Error Analysis of Brailled Instructional Materials Produced by Public School Personnel in Texas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Herzberg, Tina

2010-01-01

In this study, a detailed error analysis was performed to determine if patterns of errors existed in braille transcriptions. The most frequently occurring errors were the insertion of letters or words that were not contained in the original print material; the incorrect usage of the emphasis indicator; and the incorrect formatting of titles,…

Integrated analysis of error detection and recovery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shin, K. G.; Lee, Y. H.

1985-01-01

An integrated modeling and analysis of error detection and recovery is presented. When fault latency and/or error latency exist, the system may suffer from multiple faults or error propagations which seriously deteriorate the fault-tolerant capability. Several detection models that enable analysis of the effect of detection mechanisms on the subsequent error handling operations and the overall system reliability were developed. Following detection of the faulty unit and reconfiguration of the system, the contaminated processes or tasks have to be recovered. The strategies of error recovery employed depend on the detection mechanisms and the available redundancy. Several recovery methods including the rollback recovery are considered. The recovery overhead is evaluated as an index of the capabilities of the detection and reconfiguration mechanisms.

A Simple Exact Error Rate Analysis for DS-CDMA with Arbitrary Pulse Shape in Flat Nakagami Fading

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Mohammad Azizur; Sasaki, Shigenobu; Kikuchi, Hisakazu; Harada, Hiroshi; Kato, Shuzo

A simple exact error rate analysis is presented for random binary direct sequence code division multiple access (DS-CDMA) considering a general pulse shape and flat Nakagami fading channel. First of all, a simple model is developed for the multiple access interference (MAI). Based on this, a simple exact expression of the characteristic function (CF) of MAI is developed in a straight forward manner. Finally, an exact expression of error rate is obtained following the CF method of error rate analysis. The exact error rate so obtained can be much easily evaluated as compared to the only reliable approximate error rate expression currently available, which is based on the Improved Gaussian Approximation (IGA).

Error Analysis: Past, Present, and Future

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McCloskey, George

2017-01-01

This commentary will take an historical perspective on the Kaufman Test of Educational Achievement (KTEA) error analysis, discussing where it started, where it is today, and where it may be headed in the future. In addition, the commentary will compare and contrast the KTEA error analysis procedures that are rooted in psychometric methodology and…

Page layout analysis and classification for complex scanned documents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Erkilinc, M. Sezer; Jaber, Mustafa; Saber, Eli; Bauer, Peter; Depalov, Dejan

2011-09-01

A framework for region/zone classification in color and gray-scale scanned documents is proposed in this paper. The algorithm includes modules for extracting text, photo, and strong edge/line regions. Firstly, a text detection module which is based on wavelet analysis and Run Length Encoding (RLE) technique is employed. Local and global energy maps in high frequency bands of the wavelet domain are generated and used as initial text maps. Further analysis using RLE yields a final text map. The second module is developed to detect image/photo and pictorial regions in the input document. A block-based classifier using basis vector projections is employed to identify photo candidate regions. Then, a final photo map is obtained by applying probabilistic model based on Markov random field (MRF) based maximum a posteriori (MAP) optimization with iterated conditional mode (ICM). The final module detects lines and strong edges using Hough transform and edge-linkages analysis, respectively. The text, photo, and strong edge/line maps are combined to generate a page layout classification of the scanned target document. Experimental results and objective evaluation show that the proposed technique has a very effective performance on variety of simple and complex scanned document types obtained from MediaTeam Oulu document database. The proposed page layout classifier can be used in systems for efficient document storage, content based document retrieval, optical character recognition, mobile phone imagery, and augmented reality.

Optical System Error Analysis and Calibration Method of High-Accuracy Star Trackers

PubMed Central

Sun, Ting; Xing, Fei; You, Zheng

2013-01-01

The star tracker is a high-accuracy attitude measurement device widely used in spacecraft. Its performance depends largely on the precision of the optical system parameters. Therefore, the analysis of the optical system parameter errors and a precise calibration model are crucial to the accuracy of the star tracker. Research in this field is relatively lacking a systematic and universal analysis up to now. This paper proposes in detail an approach for the synthetic error analysis of the star tracker, without the complicated theoretical derivation. This approach can determine the error propagation relationship of the star tracker, and can build intuitively and systematically an error model. The analysis results can be used as a foundation and a guide for the optical design, calibration, and compensation of the star tracker. A calibration experiment is designed and conducted. Excellent calibration results are achieved based on the calibration model. To summarize, the error analysis approach and the calibration method are proved to be adequate and precise, and could provide an important guarantee for the design, manufacture, and measurement of high-accuracy star trackers. PMID:23567527

A simple, objective analysis scheme for scatterometer data. [Seasat A satellite observation of wind over ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Levy, G.; Brown, R. A.

1986-01-01

A simple economical objective analysis scheme is devised and tested on real scatterometer data. It is designed to treat dense data such as those of the Seasat A Satellite Scatterometer (SASS) for individual or multiple passes, and preserves subsynoptic scale features. Errors are evaluated with the aid of sampling ('bootstrap') statistical methods. In addition, sensitivity tests have been performed which establish qualitative confidence in calculated fields of divergence and vorticity. The SASS wind algorithm could be improved; however, the data at this point are limited by instrument errors rather than analysis errors. The analysis error is typically negligible in comparison with the instrument error, but amounts to 30 percent of the instrument error in areas of strong wind shear. The scheme is very economical, and thus suitable for large volumes of dense data such as SASS data.

Associations of Mediterranean Diet and a Posteriori Derived Dietary Patterns with Breast and Lung Cancer Risk: A Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Krusinska, Beata; Hawrysz, Iwona; Wadolowska, Lidia; Slowinska, Malgorzata Anna; Biernacki, Maciej; Czerwinska, Anna; Golota, Janusz Jacek

2018-04-11

Lung cancer in men and breast cancer in women are the most commonly diagnosed cancers in Poland and worldwide. Results of studies involving dietary patterns (DPs) and breast or lung cancer risk in European countries outside the Mediterranean Sea region are limited and inconclusive. This study aimed to develop a 'Polish-adapted Mediterranean Diet' ('Polish-aMED') score, and then study the associations between the 'Polish-aMED' score and a posteriori -derived dietary patterns with breast or lung cancer risk in adult Poles. This pooled analysis of two case-control studies involved 560 subjects (280 men, 280 women) aged 40-75 years from Northeastern Poland. Diagnoses of breast cancer in 140 women and lung cancer in 140 men were found. The food frequency consumption of 21 selected food groups was collected using a 62-item Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ)-6. The 'Polish-adapted Mediterranean Diet' score which included eight items-vegetables, fruit, whole grain, fish, legumes, nuts and seeds-as well as the ratio of vegetable oils to animal fat and red and processed meat was developed (range: 0-8 points). Three DPs were identified in a Principal Component Analysis: 'Prudent', 'Non-healthy', 'Dressings and sweetened-low-fat dairy'. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, two models were created: crude, and adjusted for age, sex, type of cancer, Body Mass Index (BMI), socioeconomic status (SES) index, overall physical activity, smoking status and alcohol abuse. The risk of breast or lung cancer was lower in the average (3-5 points) and high (6-8 points) levels of the 'Polish-aMED' score compared to the low (0-2 points) level by 51% (odds ratio (OR): 0.49; 95% confidence interval (Cl): 0.30-0.80; p < 0.01; adjusted) and 63% (OR: 0.37; 95% Cl: 0.21-0.64; p < 0.001; adjusted), respectively. In the middle and upper tertiles compared to the bottom tertile of the 'Prudent' DP, the risk of cancer was lower by 38-43% (crude) but was not significant after adjustment for confounders. In the upper compared to the bottom tertile of the 'Non-healthy' DP, the risk of cancer was higher by 65% (OR: 1.65; 95% Cl: 1.05-2.59; p < 0.05; adjusted). In conclusion, the Polish adaptation of the Mediterranean diet could be considered for adults living in non-Mediterranean countries for the prevention of the breast or lung cancers. Future studies should explore the role of a traditional Mediterranean diet fitted to local dietary patterns of non-Mediterranean Europeans in cancer prevention.

Associations of Mediterranean Diet and a Posteriori Derived Dietary Patterns with Breast and Lung Cancer Risk: A Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Krusinska, Beata; Hawrysz, Iwona; Wadolowska, Lidia; Slowinska, Malgorzata Anna; Biernacki, Maciej; Czerwinska, Anna; Golota, Janusz Jacek

2018-01-01

Lung cancer in men and breast cancer in women are the most commonly diagnosed cancers in Poland and worldwide. Results of studies involving dietary patterns (DPs) and breast or lung cancer risk in European countries outside the Mediterranean Sea region are limited and inconclusive. This study aimed to develop a ‘Polish-adapted Mediterranean Diet’ (‘Polish-aMED’) score, and then study the associations between the ‘Polish-aMED’ score and a posteriori-derived dietary patterns with breast or lung cancer risk in adult Poles. This pooled analysis of two case-control studies involved 560 subjects (280 men, 280 women) aged 40–75 years from Northeastern Poland. Diagnoses of breast cancer in 140 women and lung cancer in 140 men were found. The food frequency consumption of 21 selected food groups was collected using a 62-item Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ)-6. The ‘Polish-adapted Mediterranean Diet’ score which included eight items—vegetables, fruit, whole grain, fish, legumes, nuts and seeds—as well as the ratio of vegetable oils to animal fat and red and processed meat was developed (range: 0–8 points). Three DPs were identified in a Principal Component Analysis: ‘Prudent’, ‘Non-healthy’, ‘Dressings and sweetened-low-fat dairy’. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, two models were created: crude, and adjusted for age, sex, type of cancer, Body Mass Index (BMI), socioeconomic status (SES) index, overall physical activity, smoking status and alcohol abuse. The risk of breast or lung cancer was lower in the average (3–5 points) and high (6–8 points) levels of the ‘Polish-aMED’ score compared to the low (0–2 points) level by 51% (odds ratio (OR): 0.49; 95% confidence interval (Cl): 0.30–0.80; p < 0.01; adjusted) and 63% (OR: 0.37; 95% Cl: 0.21–0.64; p < 0.001; adjusted), respectively. In the middle and upper tertiles compared to the bottom tertile of the ‘Prudent’ DP, the risk of cancer was lower by 38–43% (crude) but was not significant after adjustment for confounders. In the upper compared to the bottom tertile of the ‘Non-healthy’ DP, the risk of cancer was higher by 65% (OR: 1.65; 95% Cl: 1.05–2.59; p < 0.05; adjusted). In conclusion, the Polish adaptation of the Mediterranean diet could be considered for adults living in non-Mediterranean countries for the prevention of the breast or lung cancers. Future studies should explore the role of a traditional Mediterranean diet fitted to local dietary patterns of non-Mediterranean Europeans in cancer prevention. PMID:29641468

Operational Hydrological Forecasting During the Iphex-iop Campaign - Meet the Challenge

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tao, Jing; Wu, Di; Gourley, Jonathan; Zhang, Sara Q.; Crow, Wade; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Barros, Ana P.

2016-01-01

An operational streamflow forecasting testbed was implemented during the Intense Observing Period (IOP) of the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx-IOP) in May-June 2014 to characterize flood predictability in complex terrain. Specifically, hydrological forecasts were issued daily for 12 headwater catchments in the Southern Appalachians using the Duke Coupled surface-groundwater Hydrology Model (DCHM) forced by hourly atmospheric fields and QPFs (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts) produced by the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model. Previous day hindcasts forced by radar-based QPEs (Quantitative Precipitation Estimates) were used to provide initial conditions for present day forecasts. This manuscript first describes the operational testbed framework and workflow during the IPHEx-IOP including a synthesis of results. Second, various data assimilation approaches are explored a posteriori (post-IOP) to improve operational (flash) flood forecasting. Although all flood events during the IOP were predicted by the IPHEx operational testbed with lead times of up to 6 h, significant errors of over- and, or under-prediction were identified that could be traced back to the QPFs and subgrid-scale variability of radar QPEs. To improve operational flood prediction, three data-merging strategies were pursued post-IOP: (1) the spatial patterns of QPFs were improved through assimilation of satellite-based microwave radiances into NU-WRF; (2) QPEs were improved by merging raingauge observations with ground-based radar observations using bias-correction methods to produce streamflow hindcasts and associated uncertainty envelope capturing the streamflow observations, and (3) river discharge observations were assimilated into the DCHM to improve streamflow forecasts using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), the fixed-lag Ensemble Kalman Smoother (EnKS), and the Asynchronous EnKF (i.e. AEnKF) methods. Both flood hindcasts and forecasts were significantly improved by assimilating discharge observations into the DCHM. Specifically, Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) values as high as 0.98, 0.71 and 0.99 at 15-min time-scales were attained for three headwater catchments in the inner mountain region demonstrating that the assimilation of discharge observations at the basins outlet can reduce the errors and uncertainties in soil moisture at very small scales. Success in operational flood forecasting at lead times of 6, 9, 12 and 15 h was also achieved through discharge assimilation with NSEs of 0.87, 0.78, 0.72 and 0.51, respectively. Analysis of experiments using various data assimilation system configurations indicates that the optimal assimilation time window depends both on basin properties and storm-specific space-time-structure of rainfall, and therefore adaptive, context-aware configurations of the data assimilation system are recommended to address the challenges of flood prediction in headwater basins.

Operational hydrological forecasting during the IPHEx-IOP campaign - Meet the challenge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tao, Jing; Wu, Di; Gourley, Jonathan; Zhang, Sara Q.; Crow, Wade; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Barros, Ana P.

2016-10-01

An operational streamflow forecasting testbed was implemented during the Intense Observing Period (IOP) of the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx-IOP) in May-June 2014 to characterize flood predictability in complex terrain. Specifically, hydrological forecasts were issued daily for 12 headwater catchments in the Southern Appalachians using the Duke Coupled surface-groundwater Hydrology Model (DCHM) forced by hourly atmospheric fields and QPFs (Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts) produced by the NASA-Unified Weather Research and Forecasting (NU-WRF) model. Previous day hindcasts forced by radar-based QPEs (Quantitative Precipitation Estimates) were used to provide initial conditions for present day forecasts. This manuscript first describes the operational testbed framework and workflow during the IPHEx-IOP including a synthesis of results. Second, various data assimilation approaches are explored a posteriori (post-IOP) to improve operational (flash) flood forecasting. Although all flood events during the IOP were predicted by the IPHEx operational testbed with lead times of up to 6 h, significant errors of over- and, or under-prediction were identified that could be traced back to the QPFs and subgrid-scale variability of radar QPEs. To improve operational flood prediction, three data-merging strategies were pursued post-IOP: (1) the spatial patterns of QPFs were improved through assimilation of satellite-based microwave radiances into NU-WRF; (2) QPEs were improved by merging raingauge observations with ground-based radar observations using bias-correction methods to produce streamflow hindcasts and associated uncertainty envelope capturing the streamflow observations, and (3) river discharge observations were assimilated into the DCHM to improve streamflow forecasts using the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), the fixed-lag Ensemble Kalman Smoother (EnKS), and the Asynchronous EnKF (i.e. AEnKF) methods. Both flood hindcasts and forecasts were significantly improved by assimilating discharge observations into the DCHM. Specifically, Nash-Sutcliff Efficiency (NSE) values as high as 0.98, 0.71 and 0.99 at 15-min time-scales were attained for three headwater catchments in the inner mountain region demonstrating that the assimilation of discharge observations at the basin's outlet can reduce the errors and uncertainties in soil moisture at very small scales. Success in operational flood forecasting at lead times of 6, 9, 12 and 15 h was also achieved through discharge assimilation with NSEs of 0.87, 0.78, 0.72 and 0.51, respectively. Analysis of experiments using various data assimilation system configurations indicates that the optimal assimilation time window depends both on basin properties and storm-specific space-time-structure of rainfall, and therefore adaptive, context-aware configurations of the data assimilation system are recommended to address the challenges of flood prediction in headwater basins.

Wavelet and adaptive methods for time dependent problems and applications in aerosol dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Qiang

Time dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) are widely used as mathematical models of environmental problems. Aerosols are now clearly identified as an important factor in many environmental aspects of climate and radiative forcing processes, as well as in the health effects of air quality. The mathematical models for the aerosol dynamics with respect to size distribution are nonlinear partial differential and integral equations, which describe processes of condensation, coagulation and deposition. Simulating the general aerosol dynamic equations on time, particle size and space exhibits serious difficulties because the size dimension ranges from a few nanometer to several micrometer while the spatial dimension is usually described with kilometers. Therefore, it is an important and challenging task to develop efficient techniques for solving time dependent dynamic equations. In this thesis, we develop and analyze efficient wavelet and adaptive methods for the time dependent dynamic equations on particle size and further apply them to the spatial aerosol dynamic systems. Wavelet Galerkin method is proposed to solve the aerosol dynamic equations on time and particle size due to the fact that aerosol distribution changes strongly along size direction and the wavelet technique can solve it very efficiently. Daubechies' wavelets are considered in the study due to the fact that they possess useful properties like orthogonality, compact support, exact representation of polynomials to a certain degree. Another problem encountered in the solution of the aerosol dynamic equations results from the hyperbolic form due to the condensation growth term. We propose a new characteristic-based fully adaptive multiresolution numerical scheme for solving the aerosol dynamic equation, which combines the attractive advantages of adaptive multiresolution technique and the characteristics method. On the aspect of theoretical analysis, the global existence and uniqueness of solutions of continuous time wavelet numerical methods for the nonlinear aerosol dynamics are proved by using Schauder's fixed point theorem and the variational technique. Optimal error estimates are derived for both continuous and discrete time wavelet Galerkin schemes. We further derive reliable and efficient a posteriori error estimate which is based on stable multiresolution wavelet bases and an adaptive space-time algorithm for efficient solution of linear parabolic differential equations. The adaptive space refinement strategies based on the locality of corresponding multiresolution processes are proved to converge. At last, we develop efficient numerical methods by combining the wavelet methods proposed in previous parts and the splitting technique to solve the spatial aerosol dynamic equations. Wavelet methods along the particle size direction and the upstream finite difference method along the spatial direction are alternately used in each time interval. Numerical experiments are taken to show the effectiveness of our developed methods.

Distortion Representation of Forecast Errors for Model Skill Assessment and Objective Analysis. Revision 1.12

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hoffman, Ross N.; Nehrkorn, Thomas; Grassotti, Christopher

1997-01-01

We proposed a novel characterization of errors for numerical weather predictions. In its simplest form we decompose the error into a part attributable to phase errors and a remainder. The phase error is represented in the same fashion as a velocity field and is required to vary slowly and smoothly with position. A general distortion representation allows for the displacement and amplification or bias correction of forecast anomalies. Characterizing and decomposing forecast error in this way has two important applications, which we term the assessment application and the objective analysis application. For the assessment application, our approach results in new objective measures of forecast skill which are more in line with subjective measures of forecast skill and which are useful in validating models and diagnosing their shortcomings. With regard to the objective analysis application, meteorological analysis schemes balance forecast error and observational error to obtain an optimal analysis. Presently, representations of the error covariance matrix used to measure the forecast error are severely limited. For the objective analysis application our approach will improve analyses by providing a more realistic measure of the forecast error. We expect, a priori, that our approach should greatly improve the utility of remotely sensed data which have relatively high horizontal resolution, but which are indirectly related to the conventional atmospheric variables. In this project, we are initially focusing on the assessment application, restricted to a realistic but univariate 2-dimensional situation. Specifically, we study the forecast errors of the sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa geopotential height fields for forecasts of the short and medium range. Since the forecasts are generated by the GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system with and without ERS 1 scatterometer data, these preliminary studies serve several purposes. They (1) provide a testbed for the use of the distortion representation of forecast errors, (2) act as one means of validating the GEOS data assimilation system and (3) help to describe the impact of the ERS 1 scatterometer data.

Failure analysis and modeling of a multicomputer system. M.S. Thesis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Subramani, Sujatha Srinivasan

1990-01-01

This thesis describes the results of an extensive measurement-based analysis of real error data collected from a 7-machine DEC VaxCluster multicomputer system. In addition to evaluating basic system error and failure characteristics, we develop reward models to analyze the impact of failures and errors on the system. The results show that, although 98 percent of errors in the shared resources recover, they result in 48 percent of all system failures. The analysis of rewards shows that the expected reward rate for the VaxCluster decreases to 0.5 in 100 days for a 3 out of 7 model, which is well over a 100 times that for a 7-out-of-7 model. A comparison of the reward rates for a range of k-out-of-n models indicates that the maximum increase in reward rate (0.25) occurs in going from the 6-out-of-7 model to the 5-out-of-7 model. The analysis also shows that software errors have the lowest reward (0.2 vs. 0.91 for network errors). The large loss in reward rate for software errors is due to the fact that a large proportion (94 percent) of software errors lead to failure. In comparison, the high reward rate for network errors is due to fast recovery from a majority of these errors (median recovery duration is 0 seconds).

Simultaneous Control of Error Rates in fMRI Data Analysis

PubMed Central

Kang, Hakmook; Blume, Jeffrey; Ombao, Hernando; Badre, David

2015-01-01

The key idea of statistical hypothesis testing is to fix, and thereby control, the Type I error (false positive) rate across samples of any size. Multiple comparisons inflate the global (family-wise) Type I error rate and the traditional solution to maintaining control of the error rate is to increase the local (comparison-wise) Type II error (false negative) rates. However, in the analysis of human brain imaging data, the number of comparisons is so large that this solution breaks down: the local Type II error rate ends up being so large that scientifically meaningful analysis is precluded. Here we propose a novel solution to this problem: allow the Type I error rate to converge to zero along with the Type II error rate. It works because when the Type I error rate per comparison is very small, the accumulation (or global) Type I error rate is also small. This solution is achieved by employing the Likelihood paradigm, which uses likelihood ratios to measure the strength of evidence on a voxel-by-voxel basis. In this paper, we provide theoretical and empirical justification for a likelihood approach to the analysis of human brain imaging data. In addition, we present extensive simulations that show the likelihood approach is viable, leading to ‘cleaner’ looking brain maps and operationally superiority (lower average error rate). Finally, we include a case study on cognitive control related activation in the prefrontal cortex of the human brain. PMID:26272730

Methods of automatic nucleotide-sequence analysis. Multicomponent spectrophotometric analysis of mixtures of nucleic acid components by a least-squares procedure

PubMed Central

Lee, Sheila; McMullen, D.; Brown, G. L.; Stokes, A. R.

1965-01-01

1. A theoretical analysis of the errors in multicomponent spectrophotometric analysis of nucleoside mixtures, by a least-squares procedure, has been made to obtain an expression for the error coefficient, relating the error in calculated concentration to the error in extinction measurements. 2. The error coefficients, which depend only on the `library' of spectra used to fit the experimental curves, have been computed for a number of `libraries' containing the following nucleosides found in s-RNA: adenosine, guanosine, cytidine, uridine, 5-ribosyluracil, 7-methylguanosine, 6-dimethylaminopurine riboside, 6-methylaminopurine riboside and thymine riboside. 3. The error coefficients have been used to determine the best conditions for maximum accuracy in the determination of the compositions of nucleoside mixtures. 4. Experimental determinations of the compositions of nucleoside mixtures have been made and the errors found to be consistent with those predicted by the theoretical analysis. 5. It has been demonstrated that, with certain precautions, the multicomponent spectrophotometric method described is suitable as a basis for automatic nucleotide-composition analysis of oligonucleotides containing nine nucleotides. Used in conjunction with continuous chromatography and flow chemical techniques, this method can be applied to the study of the sequence of s-RNA. PMID:14346087

Automatic Estimation of Verified Floating-Point Round-Off Errors via Static Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moscato, Mariano; Titolo, Laura; Dutle, Aaron; Munoz, Cesar A.

2017-01-01

This paper introduces a static analysis technique for computing formally verified round-off error bounds of floating-point functional expressions. The technique is based on a denotational semantics that computes a symbolic estimation of floating-point round-o errors along with a proof certificate that ensures its correctness. The symbolic estimation can be evaluated on concrete inputs using rigorous enclosure methods to produce formally verified numerical error bounds. The proposed technique is implemented in the prototype research tool PRECiSA (Program Round-o Error Certifier via Static Analysis) and used in the verification of floating-point programs of interest to NASA.

Preconditioned Alternating Projection Algorithms for Maximum a Posteriori ECT Reconstruction

PubMed Central

Krol, Andrzej; Li, Si; Shen, Lixin; Xu, Yuesheng

2012-01-01

We propose a preconditioned alternating projection algorithm (PAPA) for solving the maximum a posteriori (MAP) emission computed tomography (ECT) reconstruction problem. Specifically, we formulate the reconstruction problem as a constrained convex optimization problem with the total variation (TV) regularization. We then characterize the solution of the constrained convex optimization problem and show that it satisfies a system of fixed-point equations defined in terms of two proximity operators raised from the convex functions that define the TV-norm and the constrain involved in the problem. The characterization (of the solution) via the proximity operators that define two projection operators naturally leads to an alternating projection algorithm for finding the solution. For efficient numerical computation, we introduce to the alternating projection algorithm a preconditioning matrix (the EM-preconditioner) for the dense system matrix involved in the optimization problem. We prove theoretically convergence of the preconditioned alternating projection algorithm. In numerical experiments, performance of our algorithms, with an appropriately selected preconditioning matrix, is compared with performance of the conventional MAP expectation-maximization (MAP-EM) algorithm with TV regularizer (EM-TV) and that of the recently developed nested EM-TV algorithm for ECT reconstruction. Based on the numerical experiments performed in this work, we observe that the alternating projection algorithm with the EM-preconditioner outperforms significantly the EM-TV in all aspects including the convergence speed, the noise in the reconstructed images and the image quality. It also outperforms the nested EM-TV in the convergence speed while providing comparable image quality. PMID:23271835

Using the in-line component for fixed-wing EM 1D inversion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smiarowski, Adam

2015-09-01

Numerous authors have discussed the utility of multicomponent measurements. Generally speaking, for a vertical-oriented dipole source, the measured vertical component couples to horizontal planar bodies while the horizontal in-line component couples best to vertical planar targets. For layered-earth cases, helicopter EM systems have little or no in-line component response and as a result much of the in-line signal is due to receiver coil rotation and appears as noise. In contrast to this, the in-line component of a fixed-wing airborne electromagnetic (AEM) system with large transmitter-receiver offset can be substantial, exceeding the vertical component in conductive areas. This paper compares the in-line and vertical response of a fixed-wing airborne electromagnetic (AEM) system using a half-space model and calculates sensitivity functions. The a posteriori inversion model parameter uncertainty matrix is calculated for a bathymetry model (conductive layer over more resistive half-space) for two inversion cases; use of vertical component alone is compared to joint inversion of vertical and in-line components. The joint inversion is able to better resolve model parameters. An example is then provided using field data from a bathymetry survey to compare the joint inversion to vertical component only inversion. For each inversion set, the difference between the inverted water depth and ship-measured bathymetry is calculated. The result is in general agreement with that expected from the a posteriori inversion model parameter uncertainty calculation.

Preconditioned alternating projection algorithms for maximum a posteriori ECT reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krol, Andrzej; Li, Si; Shen, Lixin; Xu, Yuesheng

2012-11-01

We propose a preconditioned alternating projection algorithm (PAPA) for solving the maximum a posteriori (MAP) emission computed tomography (ECT) reconstruction problem. Specifically, we formulate the reconstruction problem as a constrained convex optimization problem with the total variation (TV) regularization. We then characterize the solution of the constrained convex optimization problem and show that it satisfies a system of fixed-point equations defined in terms of two proximity operators raised from the convex functions that define the TV-norm and the constraint involved in the problem. The characterization (of the solution) via the proximity operators that define two projection operators naturally leads to an alternating projection algorithm for finding the solution. For efficient numerical computation, we introduce to the alternating projection algorithm a preconditioning matrix (the EM-preconditioner) for the dense system matrix involved in the optimization problem. We prove theoretically convergence of the PAPA. In numerical experiments, performance of our algorithms, with an appropriately selected preconditioning matrix, is compared with performance of the conventional MAP expectation-maximization (MAP-EM) algorithm with TV regularizer (EM-TV) and that of the recently developed nested EM-TV algorithm for ECT reconstruction. Based on the numerical experiments performed in this work, we observe that the alternating projection algorithm with the EM-preconditioner outperforms significantly the EM-TV in all aspects including the convergence speed, the noise in the reconstructed images and the image quality. It also outperforms the nested EM-TV in the convergence speed while providing comparable image quality.

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Tiffaney Miller

2017-01-01

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Safety within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and/or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error. This research provides a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Tiffaney Miller

2017-01-01

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps/incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Safety within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and/or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error. This research provides a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Alexander, Tiffaney Miller

2017-01-01

Research results have shown that more than half of aviation, aerospace and aeronautics mishaps incidents are attributed to human error. As a part of Quality within space exploration ground processing operations, the identification and or classification of underlying contributors and causes of human error must be identified, in order to manage human error.This presentation will provide a framework and methodology using the Human Error Assessment and Reduction Technique (HEART) and Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), as an analysis tool to identify contributing factors, their impact on human error events, and predict the Human Error probabilities (HEPs) of future occurrences. This research methodology was applied (retrospectively) to six (6) NASA ground processing operations scenarios and thirty (30) years of Launch Vehicle related mishap data. This modifiable framework can be used and followed by other space and similar complex operations.

Error Analysis and Validation for Insar Height Measurement Induced by Slant Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Li, T.; Fan, W.; Geng, X.

2018-04-01

InSAR technique is an important method for large area DEM extraction. Several factors have significant influence on the accuracy of height measurement. In this research, the effect of slant range measurement for InSAR height measurement was analysis and discussed. Based on the theory of InSAR height measurement, the error propagation model was derived assuming no coupling among different factors, which directly characterise the relationship between slant range error and height measurement error. Then the theoretical-based analysis in combination with TanDEM-X parameters was implemented to quantitatively evaluate the influence of slant range error to height measurement. In addition, the simulation validation of InSAR error model induced by slant range was performed on the basis of SRTM DEM and TanDEM-X parameters. The spatial distribution characteristics and error propagation rule of InSAR height measurement were further discussed and evaluated.

Tolerance analysis of optical telescopes using coherent addition of wavefront errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davenport, J. W.

1982-01-01

A near diffraction-limited telescope requires that tolerance analysis be done on the basis of system wavefront error. One method of analyzing the wavefront error is to represent the wavefront error function in terms of its Zernike polynomial expansion. A Ramsey-Korsch ray trace package, a computer program that simulates the tracing of rays through an optical telescope system, was expanded to include the Zernike polynomial expansion up through the fifth-order spherical term. An option to determine a 3 dimensional plot of the wavefront error function was also included in the Ramsey-Korsch package. Several assimulation runs were analyzed to determine the particular set of coefficients in the Zernike expansion that are effected by various errors such as tilt, decenter and despace. A 3 dimensional plot of each error up through the fifth-order spherical term was also included in the study. Tolerance analysis data are presented.

Error Pattern Analysis Applied to Technical Writing: An Editor's Guide for Writers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Monagle, E. Brette

The use of error pattern analysis can reduce the time and money spent on editing and correcting manuscripts. What is required is noting, classifying, and keeping a frequency count of errors. First an editor should take a typical page of writing and circle each error. After the editor has done a sufficiently large number of pages to identify an…

A Study of Reading Errors Using Goodman's Miscue Analysis and Cloze Procedure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farren, Sean N.

A study of 11 boys, aged 12 to 14 with low reading ability, was conducted to discover what kinds of errors they made and whether or not differences might exist between error patterns in silent and oral reading. Miscue analysis was used to test oral reading while cloze procedures were used to test silent reading. Errors were categorized according…

Some Deep Structure Manifestations in Second Language Errors of English Voiced and Voiceless "th."

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moustafa, Margaret Heiss

Native speakers of Egyptian Arabic make errors in their pronunciation of English that cannot always be accounted for by a contrastive analysis of Egyptian analysis of Egyptain Arabic and English. This study focuses on three types of errors in the pronunciation of voiced and voiceless "th" made by fluent speakers of English. These errors were noted…

Analyzing human errors in flight mission operations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bruno, Kristin J.; Welz, Linda L.; Barnes, G. Michael; Sherif, Josef

1993-01-01

A long-term program is in progress at JPL to reduce cost and risk of flight mission operations through a defect prevention/error management program. The main thrust of this program is to create an environment in which the performance of the total system, both the human operator and the computer system, is optimized. To this end, 1580 Incident Surprise Anomaly reports (ISA's) from 1977-1991 were analyzed from the Voyager and Magellan projects. A Pareto analysis revealed that 38 percent of the errors were classified as human errors. A preliminary cluster analysis based on the Magellan human errors (204 ISA's) is presented here. The resulting clusters described the underlying relationships among the ISA's. Initial models of human error in flight mission operations are presented. Next, the Voyager ISA's will be scored and included in the analysis. Eventually, these relationships will be used to derive a theoretically motivated and empirically validated model of human error in flight mission operations. Ultimately, this analysis will be used to make continuous process improvements continuous process improvements to end-user applications and training requirements. This Total Quality Management approach will enable the management and prevention of errors in the future.

Data Analysis & Statistical Methods for Command File Errors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Meshkat, Leila; Waggoner, Bruce; Bryant, Larry

2014-01-01

This paper explains current work on modeling for managing the risk of command file errors. It is focused on analyzing actual data from a JPL spaceflight mission to build models for evaluating and predicting error rates as a function of several key variables. We constructed a rich dataset by considering the number of errors, the number of files radiated, including the number commands and blocks in each file, as well as subjective estimates of workload and operational novelty. We have assessed these data using different curve fitting and distribution fitting techniques, such as multiple regression analysis, and maximum likelihood estimation to see how much of the variability in the error rates can be explained with these. We have also used goodness of fit testing strategies and principal component analysis to further assess our data. Finally, we constructed a model of expected error rates based on the what these statistics bore out as critical drivers to the error rate. This model allows project management to evaluate the error rate against a theoretically expected rate as well as anticipate future error rates.

General model for the pointing error analysis of Risley-prism system based on ray direction deviation in light refraction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hao; Yuan, Yan; Su, Lijuan; Huang, Fengzhen; Bai, Qing

2016-09-01

The Risley-prism-based light beam steering apparatus delivers superior pointing accuracy and it is used in imaging LIDAR and imaging microscopes. A general model for pointing error analysis of the Risley prisms is proposed in this paper, based on ray direction deviation in light refraction. This model captures incident beam deviation, assembly deflections, and prism rotational error. We derive the transmission matrixes of the model firstly. Then, the independent and cumulative effects of different errors are analyzed through this model. Accuracy study of the model shows that the prediction deviation of pointing error for different error is less than 4.1×10-5° when the error amplitude is 0.1°. Detailed analyses of errors indicate that different error sources affect the pointing accuracy to varying degree, and the major error source is the incident beam deviation. The prism tilting has a relative big effect on the pointing accuracy when prism tilts in the principal section. The cumulative effect analyses of multiple errors represent that the pointing error can be reduced by tuning the bearing tilting in the same direction. The cumulative effect of rotational error is relative big when the difference of these two prism rotational angles equals 0 or π, while it is relative small when the difference equals π/2. The novelty of these results suggests that our analysis can help to uncover the error distribution and aid in measurement calibration of Risley-prism systems.

Spelling Errors of Dyslexic Children in Bosnian Language with Transparent Orthography

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duranovic, Mirela

2017-01-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the nature of spelling errors made by children with dyslexia in Bosnian language with transparent orthography. Three main error categories were distinguished: phonological, orthographic, and grammatical errors. An analysis of error type showed 86% of phonological errors, 10% of orthographic errors, and 4%…

Using integrated models to minimize environmentally induced wavefront error in optomechanical design and analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Genberg, Victor L.; Michels, Gregory J.

2017-08-01

The ultimate design goal of an optical system subjected to dynamic loads is to minimize system level wavefront error (WFE). In random response analysis, system WFE is difficult to predict from finite element results due to the loss of phase information. In the past, the use of ystem WFE was limited by the difficulty of obtaining a linear optics model. In this paper, an automated method for determining system level WFE using a linear optics model is presented. An error estimate is included in the analysis output based on fitting errors of mode shapes. The technique is demonstrated by example with SigFit, a commercially available tool integrating mechanical analysis with optical analysis.

[Character of refractive errors in population study performed by the Area Military Medical Commission in Lodz].

PubMed

Nowak, Michał S; Goś, Roman; Smigielski, Janusz

2008-01-01

To determine the prevalence of refractive errors in population. A retrospective review of medical examinations for entry to the military service from The Area Military Medical Commission in Lodz. Ophthalmic examinations were performed. We used statistic analysis to review the results. Statistic analysis revealed that refractive errors occurred in 21.68% of the population. The most commen refractive error was myopia. 1) The most commen ocular diseases are refractive errors, especially myopia (21.68% in total). 2) Refractive surgery and contact lenses should be allowed as the possible correction of refractive errors for military service.

Implementation of an experimental program to investigate the performance characteristics of OMEGA navigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baxa, E. G., Jr.

1974-01-01

A theoretical formulation of differential and composite OMEGA error is presented to establish hypotheses about the functional relationships between various parameters and OMEGA navigational errors. Computer software developed to provide for extensive statistical analysis of the phase data is described. Results from the regression analysis used to conduct parameter sensitivity studies on differential OMEGA error tend to validate the theoretically based hypothesis concerning the relationship between uncorrected differential OMEGA error and receiver separation range and azimuth. Limited results of measurement of receiver repeatability error and line of position measurement error are also presented.

Evaluation of errors in quantitative determination of asbestos in rock

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baietto, Oliviero; Marini, Paola; Vitaliti, Martina

2016-04-01

The quantitative determination of the content of asbestos in rock matrices is a complex operation which is susceptible to important errors. The principal methodologies for the analysis are Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM) and Phase Contrast Optical Microscopy (PCOM). Despite the PCOM resolution is inferior to that of SEM, PCOM analysis has several advantages, including more representativity of the analyzed sample, more effective recognition of chrysotile and a lower cost. The DIATI LAA internal methodology for the analysis in PCOM is based on a mild grinding of a rock sample, its subdivision in 5-6 grain size classes smaller than 2 mm and a subsequent microscopic analysis of a portion of each class. The PCOM is based on the optical properties of asbestos and of the liquids with note refractive index in which the particles in analysis are immersed. The error evaluation in the analysis of rock samples, contrary to the analysis of airborne filters, cannot be based on a statistical distribution. In fact for airborne filters a binomial distribution (Poisson), which theoretically defines the variation in the count of fibers resulting from the observation of analysis fields, chosen randomly on the filter, can be applied. The analysis in rock matrices instead cannot lean on any statistical distribution because the most important object of the analysis is the size of the of asbestiform fibers and bundles of fibers observed and the resulting relationship between the weights of the fibrous component compared to the one granular. The error evaluation generally provided by public and private institutions varies between 50 and 150 percent, but there are not, however, specific studies that discuss the origin of the error or that link it to the asbestos content. Our work aims to provide a reliable estimation of the error in relation to the applied methodologies and to the total content of asbestos, especially for the values close to the legal limits. The error assessments must be made through the repetition of the same analysis on the same sample to try to estimate the error on the representativeness of the sample and the error related to the sensitivity of the operator, in order to provide a sufficiently reliable uncertainty of the method. We used about 30 natural rock samples with different asbestos content, performing 3 analysis on each sample to obtain a trend sufficiently representative of the percentage. Furthermore we made on one chosen sample 10 repetition of the analysis to try to define more specifically the error of the methodology.

Exploring the Phenotype of Phonological Reading Disability as a Function of the Phonological Deficit Severity: Evidence from the Error Analysis Paradigm in Arabic

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taha, Haitham; Ibrahim, Raphiq; Khateb, Asaid

2014-01-01

The dominant error types were investigated as a function of phonological processing (PP) deficit severity in four groups of impaired readers. For this aim, an error analysis paradigm distinguishing between four error types was used. The findings revealed that the different types of impaired readers were characterized by differing predominant error…

Errors Analysis of Solving Linear Inequalities among the Preparatory Year Students at King Saud University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

El-khateeb, Mahmoud M. A.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study aims to investigate the errors classes occurred by the Preparatory year students at King Saud University, through analysis student responses to the items of the study test, and to identify the varieties of the common errors and ratios of common errors that occurred in solving inequalities. In the collection of the data,…

A Study on Mutil-Scale Background Error Covariances in 3D-Var Data Assimilation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xubin; Tan, Zhe-Min

2017-04-01

The construction of background error covariances is a key component of three-dimensional variational data assimilation. There are different scale background errors and interactions among them in the numerical weather Prediction. However, the influence of these errors and their interactions cannot be represented in the background error covariances statistics when estimated by the leading methods. So, it is necessary to construct background error covariances influenced by multi-scale interactions among errors. With the NMC method, this article firstly estimates the background error covariances at given model-resolution scales. And then the information of errors whose scales are larger and smaller than the given ones is introduced respectively, using different nesting techniques, to estimate the corresponding covariances. The comparisons of three background error covariances statistics influenced by information of errors at different scales reveal that, the background error variances enhance particularly at large scales and higher levels when introducing the information of larger-scale errors by the lateral boundary condition provided by a lower-resolution model. On the other hand, the variances reduce at medium scales at the higher levels, while those show slight improvement at lower levels in the nested domain, especially at medium and small scales, when introducing the information of smaller-scale errors by nesting a higher-resolution model. In addition, the introduction of information of larger- (smaller-) scale errors leads to larger (smaller) horizontal and vertical correlation scales of background errors. Considering the multivariate correlations, the Ekman coupling increases (decreases) with the information of larger- (smaller-) scale errors included, whereas the geostrophic coupling in free atmosphere weakens in both situations. The three covariances obtained in above work are used in a data assimilation and model forecast system respectively, and then the analysis-forecast cycles for a period of 1 month are conducted. Through the comparison of both analyses and forecasts from this system, it is found that the trends for variation in analysis increments with information of different scale errors introduced are consistent with those for variation in variances and correlations of background errors. In particular, introduction of smaller-scale errors leads to larger amplitude of analysis increments for winds at medium scales at the height of both high- and low- level jet. And analysis increments for both temperature and humidity are greater at the corresponding scales at middle and upper levels under this circumstance. These analysis increments improve the intensity of jet-convection system which includes jets at different levels and coupling between them associated with latent heat release, and these changes in analyses contribute to the better forecasts for winds and temperature in the corresponding areas. When smaller-scale errors are included, analysis increments for humidity enhance significantly at large scales at lower levels to moisten southern analyses. This humidification devotes to correcting dry bias there and eventually improves forecast skill of humidity. Moreover, inclusion of larger- (smaller-) scale errors is beneficial for forecast quality of heavy (light) precipitation at large (small) scales due to the amplification (diminution) of intensity and area in precipitation forecasts but tends to overestimate (underestimate) light (heavy) precipitation .

A Western Dietary Pattern Increases Prostate Cancer Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Fabiani, Roberto; Minelli, Liliana; Bertarelli, Gaia; Bacci, Silvia

2016-10-12

Dietary patterns were recently applied to examine the relationship between eating habits and prostate cancer (PC) risk. While the associations between PC risk with the glycemic index and Mediterranean score have been reviewed, no meta-analysis is currently available on dietary patterns defined by "a posteriori" methods. A literature search was carried out (PubMed, Web of Science) to identify studies reporting the relationship between dietary patterns and PC risk. Relevant dietary patterns were selected and the risks estimated were calculated by a random-effect model. Multivariable-adjusted odds ratios (ORs), for a first-percentile increase in dietary pattern score, were combined by a dose-response meta-analysis. Twelve observational studies were included in the meta-analysis which identified a "Healthy pattern" and a "Western pattern". The Healthy pattern was not related to PC risk (OR = 0.96; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88-1.04) while the Western pattern significantly increased it (OR = 1.34; 95% CI: 1.08-1.65). In addition, the "Carbohydrate pattern", which was analyzed in four articles, was positively associated with a higher PC risk (OR = 1.64; 95% CI: 1.35-2.00). A significant linear trend between the Western ( p = 0.011) pattern, the Carbohydrate ( p = 0.005) pattern, and the increment of PC risk was observed. The small number of studies included in the meta-analysis suggests that further investigation is necessary to support these findings.

Why Is Rainfall Error Analysis Requisite for Data Assimilation and Climate Modeling?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Arthur Y.; Zhang, Sara Q.

2004-01-01

Given the large temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes, errors in rainfall observations are difficult to quantify yet crucial to making effective use of rainfall data for improving atmospheric analysis, weather forecasting, and climate modeling. We highlight the need for developing a quantitative understanding of systematic and random errors in precipitation observations by examining explicit examples of how each type of errors can affect forecasts and analyses in global data assimilation. We characterize the error information needed from the precipitation measurement community and how it may be used to improve data usage within the general framework of analysis techniques, as well as accuracy requirements from the perspective of climate modeling and global data assimilation.

An Error Analysis for the Finite Element Method Applied to Convection Diffusion Problems.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-03-01

D TFhG-]NOLOGY k 4b 00 \\" ) ’b Technical Note BN-962 AN ERROR ANALYSIS FOR THE FINITE ELEMENT METHOD APPLIED TO CONVECTION DIFFUSION PROBLEM by I...Babu~ka and W. G. Szym’czak March 1981 V.. UNVI I Of- ’i -S AN ERROR ANALYSIS FOR THE FINITE ELEMENT METHOD P. - 0 w APPLIED TO CONVECTION DIFFUSION ...AOAO98 895 MARYLAND UNIVYCOLLEGE PARK INST FOR PHYSICAL SCIENCE--ETC F/G 12/I AN ERROR ANALYIS FOR THE FINITE ELEMENT METHOD APPLIED TO CONV..ETC (U

Defining near misses: towards a sharpened definition based on empirical data about error handling processes.

PubMed

Kessels-Habraken, Marieke; Van der Schaaf, Tjerk; De Jonge, Jan; Rutte, Christel

2010-05-01

Medical errors in health care still occur frequently. Unfortunately, errors cannot be completely prevented and 100% safety can never be achieved. Therefore, in addition to error reduction strategies, health care organisations could also implement strategies that promote timely error detection and correction. Reporting and analysis of so-called near misses - usually defined as incidents without adverse consequences for patients - are necessary to gather information about successful error recovery mechanisms. This study establishes the need for a clearer and more consistent definition of near misses to enable large-scale reporting and analysis in order to obtain such information. Qualitative incident reports and interviews were collected on four units of two Dutch general hospitals. Analysis of the 143 accompanying error handling processes demonstrated that different incident types each provide unique information about error handling. Specifically, error handling processes underlying incidents that did not reach the patient differed significantly from those of incidents that reached the patient, irrespective of harm, because of successful countermeasures that had been taken after error detection. We put forward two possible definitions of near misses and argue that, from a practical point of view, the optimal definition may be contingent on organisational context. Both proposed definitions could yield large-scale reporting of near misses. Subsequent analysis could enable health care organisations to improve the safety and quality of care proactively by (1) eliminating failure factors before real accidents occur, (2) enhancing their ability to intercept errors in time, and (3) improving their safety culture. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantitative evaluation of patient-specific quality assurance using online dosimetry system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Jae-Yong; Shin, Young-Ju; Sohn, Seung-Chang; Min, Jung-Whan; Kim, Yon-Lae; Kim, Dong-Su; Choe, Bo-Young; Suh, Tae-Suk

2018-01-01

In this study, we investigated the clinical performance of an online dosimetry system (Mobius FX system, MFX) by 1) dosimetric plan verification using gamma passing rates and dose volume metrics and 2) error-detection capability evaluation by deliberately introduced machine error. Eighteen volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) plans were studied. To evaluate the clinical performance of the MFX, we used gamma analysis and dose volume histogram (DVH) analysis. In addition, to evaluate the error-detection capability, we used gamma analysis and DVH analysis utilizing three types of deliberately introduced errors (Type 1: gantry angle-independent multi-leaf collimator (MLC) error, Type 2: gantry angle-dependent MLC error, and Type 3: gantry angle error). A dosimetric verification comparison of physical dosimetry system (Delt4PT) and online dosimetry system (MFX), gamma passing rates of the two dosimetry systems showed very good agreement with treatment planning system (TPS) calculation. For the average dose difference between the TPS calculation and the MFX measurement, most of the dose metrics showed good agreement within a tolerance of 3%. For the error-detection comparison of Delta4PT and MFX, the gamma passing rates of the two dosimetry systems did not meet the 90% acceptance criterion with the magnitude of error exceeding 2 mm and 1.5 ◦, respectively, for error plans of Types 1, 2, and 3. For delivery with all error types, the average dose difference of PTV due to error magnitude showed good agreement between calculated TPS and measured MFX within 1%. Overall, the results of the online dosimetry system showed very good agreement with those of the physical dosimetry system. Our results suggest that a log file-based online dosimetry system is a very suitable verification tool for accurate and efficient clinical routines for patient-specific quality assurance (QA).

Reevaluating Recovery: Perceived Violations and Preemptive Interventions on Emergency Psychiatry Rounds

PubMed Central

Cohen, Trevor; Blatter, Brett; Almeida, Carlos; Patel, Vimla L.

2007-01-01

Objective Contemporary error research suggests that the quest to eradicate error is misguided. Error commission, detection, and recovery are an integral part of cognitive work, even at the expert level. In collaborative workspaces, the perception of potential error is directly observable: workers discuss and respond to perceived violations of accepted practice norms. As perceived violations are captured and corrected preemptively, they do not fit Reason’s widely accepted definition of error as “failure to achieve an intended outcome.” However, perceived violations suggest the aversion of potential error, and consequently have implications for error prevention. This research aims to identify and describe perceived violations of the boundaries of accepted procedure in a psychiatric emergency department (PED), and how they are resolved in practice. Design Clinical discourse from fourteen PED patient rounds was audio-recorded. Excerpts from recordings suggesting perceived violations or incidents of miscommunication were extracted and analyzed using qualitative coding methods. The results are interpreted in relation to prior research on vulnerabilities to error in the PED. Results Thirty incidents of perceived violations or miscommunication are identified and analyzed. Of these, only one medication error was formally reported. Other incidents would not have been detected by a retrospective analysis. Conclusions The analysis of perceived violations expands the data available for error analysis beyond occasional reported adverse events. These data are prospective: responses are captured in real time. This analysis supports a set of recommendations to improve the quality of care in the PED and other critical care contexts. PMID:17329728

An investigation of error characteristics and coding performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ebel, William J.; Ingels, Frank M.

1993-01-01

The first year's effort on NASA Grant NAG5-2006 was an investigation to characterize typical errors resulting from the EOS dorn link. The analysis methods developed for this effort were used on test data from a March 1992 White Sands Terminal Test. The effectiveness of a concatenated coding scheme of a Reed Solomon outer code and a convolutional inner code versus a Reed Solomon only code scheme has been investigated as well as the effectiveness of a Periodic Convolutional Interleaver in dispersing errors of certain types. The work effort consisted of development of software that allows simulation studies with the appropriate coding schemes plus either simulated data with errors or actual data with errors. The software program is entitled Communication Link Error Analysis (CLEAN) and models downlink errors, forward error correcting schemes, and interleavers.

An error analysis perspective for patient alignment systems.

PubMed

Figl, Michael; Kaar, Marcus; Hoffman, Rainer; Kratochwil, Alfred; Hummel, Johann

2013-09-01

This paper analyses the effects of error sources which can be found in patient alignment systems. As an example, an ultrasound (US) repositioning system and its transformation chain are assessed. The findings of this concept can also be applied to any navigation system. In a first step, all error sources were identified and where applicable, corresponding target registration errors were computed. By applying error propagation calculations on these commonly used registration/calibration and tracking errors, we were able to analyse the components of the overall error. Furthermore, we defined a special situation where the whole registration chain reduces to the error caused by the tracking system. Additionally, we used a phantom to evaluate the errors arising from the image-to-image registration procedure, depending on the image metric used. We have also discussed how this analysis can be applied to other positioning systems such as Cone Beam CT-based systems or Brainlab's ExacTrac. The estimates found by our error propagation analysis are in good agreement with the numbers found in the phantom study but significantly smaller than results from patient evaluations. We probably underestimated human influences such as the US scan head positioning by the operator and tissue deformation. Rotational errors of the tracking system can multiply these errors, depending on the relative position of tracker and probe. We were able to analyse the components of the overall error of a typical patient positioning system. We consider this to be a contribution to the optimization of the positioning accuracy for computer guidance systems.

Human Error Analysis in a Permit to Work System: A Case Study in a Chemical Plant

PubMed Central

Jahangiri, Mehdi; Hoboubi, Naser; Rostamabadi, Akbar; Keshavarzi, Sareh; Hosseini, Ali Akbar

2015-01-01

Background A permit to work (PTW) is a formal written system to control certain types of work which are identified as potentially hazardous. However, human error in PTW processes can lead to an accident. Methods This cross-sectional, descriptive study was conducted to estimate the probability of human errors in PTW processes in a chemical plant in Iran. In the first stage, through interviewing the personnel and studying the procedure in the plant, the PTW process was analyzed using the hierarchical task analysis technique. In doing so, PTW was considered as a goal and detailed tasks to achieve the goal were analyzed. In the next step, the standardized plant analysis risk-human (SPAR-H) reliability analysis method was applied for estimation of human error probability. Results The mean probability of human error in the PTW system was estimated to be 0.11. The highest probability of human error in the PTW process was related to flammable gas testing (50.7%). Conclusion The SPAR-H method applied in this study could analyze and quantify the potential human errors and extract the required measures for reducing the error probabilities in PTW system. Some suggestions to reduce the likelihood of errors, especially in the field of modifying the performance shaping factors and dependencies among tasks are provided. PMID:27014485

Estimation for the Linear Model With Uncertain Covariance Matrices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zachariah, Dave; Shariati, Nafiseh; Bengtsson, Mats; Jansson, Magnus; Chatterjee, Saikat

2014-03-01

We derive a maximum a posteriori estimator for the linear observation model, where the signal and noise covariance matrices are both uncertain. The uncertainties are treated probabilistically by modeling the covariance matrices with prior inverse-Wishart distributions. The nonconvex problem of jointly estimating the signal of interest and the covariance matrices is tackled by a computationally efficient fixed-point iteration as well as an approximate variational Bayes solution. The statistical performance of estimators is compared numerically to state-of-the-art estimators from the literature and shown to perform favorably.

Selective Weighted Least Squares Method for Fourier Transform Infrared Quantitative Analysis.

PubMed

Wang, Xin; Li, Yan; Wei, Haoyun; Chen, Xia

2017-06-01

Classical least squares (CLS) regression is a popular multivariate statistical method used frequently for quantitative analysis using Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectrometry. Classical least squares provides the best unbiased estimator for uncorrelated residual errors with zero mean and equal variance. However, the noise in FT-IR spectra, which accounts for a large portion of the residual errors, is heteroscedastic. Thus, if this noise with zero mean dominates in the residual errors, the weighted least squares (WLS) regression method described in this paper is a better estimator than CLS. However, if bias errors, such as the residual baseline error, are significant, WLS may perform worse than CLS. In this paper, we compare the effect of noise and bias error in using CLS and WLS in quantitative analysis. Results indicated that for wavenumbers with low absorbance, the bias error significantly affected the error, such that the performance of CLS is better than that of WLS. However, for wavenumbers with high absorbance, the noise significantly affected the error, and WLS proves to be better than CLS. Thus, we propose a selective weighted least squares (SWLS) regression that processes data with different wavenumbers using either CLS or WLS based on a selection criterion, i.e., lower or higher than an absorbance threshold. The effects of various factors on the optimal threshold value (OTV) for SWLS have been studied through numerical simulations. These studies reported that: (1) the concentration and the analyte type had minimal effect on OTV; and (2) the major factor that influences OTV is the ratio between the bias error and the standard deviation of the noise. The last part of this paper is dedicated to quantitative analysis of methane gas spectra, and methane/toluene mixtures gas spectra as measured using FT-IR spectrometry and CLS, WLS, and SWLS. The standard error of prediction (SEP), bias of prediction (bias), and the residual sum of squares of the errors (RSS) from the three quantitative analyses were compared. In methane gas analysis, SWLS yielded the lowest SEP and RSS among the three methods. In methane/toluene mixture gas analysis, a modification of the SWLS has been presented to tackle the bias error from other components. The SWLS without modification presents the lowest SEP in all cases but not bias and RSS. The modification of SWLS reduced the bias, which showed a lower RSS than CLS, especially for small components.

Evaluation and error apportionment of an ensemble of ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Through the comparison of several regional-scale chemistry transport modelling systems that simulate meteorology and air quality over the European and American continents, this study aims at i) apportioning the error to the responsible processes using time-scale analysis, ii) helping to detect causes of models error, and iii) identifying the processes and scales most urgently requiring dedicated investigations. The analysis is conducted within the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and tackles model performance gauging through measurement-to-model comparison, error decomposition and time series analysis of the models biases for several fields (ozone, CO, SO2, NO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, wind speed, and temperature). The operational metrics (magnitude of the error, sign of the bias, associativity) provide an overall sense of model strengths and deficiencies, while apportioning the error to its constituent parts (bias, variance and covariance) can help to assess the nature and quality of the error. Each of the error components is analysed independently and apportioned to specific processes based on the corresponding timescale (long scale, synoptic, diurnal, and intra-day) using the error apportionment technique devised in the former phases of AQMEII.The application of the error apportionment method to the AQMEII Phase 3 simulations provides several key insights. In addition to reaffirming the strong impact

Attitude Determination Error Analysis System (ADEAS) mathematical specifications document

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicholson, Mark; Markley, F.; Seidewitz, E.

1988-01-01

The mathematical specifications of Release 4.0 of the Attitude Determination Error Analysis System (ADEAS), which provides a general-purpose linear error analysis capability for various spacecraft attitude geometries and determination processes, are presented. The analytical basis of the system is presented. The analytical basis of the system is presented, and detailed equations are provided for both three-axis-stabilized and spin-stabilized attitude sensor models.

A methodology for translating positional error into measures of attribute error, and combining the two error sources

Treesearch

Yohay Carmel; Curtis Flather; Denis Dean

2006-01-01

This paper summarizes our efforts to investigate the nature, behavior, and implications of positional error and attribute error in spatiotemporal datasets. Estimating the combined influence of these errors on map analysis has been hindered by the fact that these two error types are traditionally expressed in different units (distance units, and categorical units,...

Hartman Testing of X-Ray Telescopes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saha, Timo T.; Biskasch, Michael; Zhang, William W.

2013-01-01

Hartmann testing of x-ray telescopes is a simple test method to retrieve and analyze alignment errors and low-order circumferential errors of x-ray telescopes and their components. A narrow slit is scanned along the circumference of the telescope in front of the mirror and the centroids of the images are calculated. From the centroid data, alignment errors, radius variation errors, and cone-angle variation errors can be calculated. Mean cone angle, mean radial height (average radius), and the focal length of the telescope can also be estimated if the centroid data is measured at multiple focal plane locations. In this paper we present the basic equations that are used in the analysis process. These equations can be applied to full circumference or segmented x-ray telescopes. We use the Optical Surface Analysis Code (OSAC) to model a segmented x-ray telescope and show that the derived equations and accompanying analysis retrieves the alignment errors and low order circumferential errors accurately.

Nonlinear truncation error analysis of finite difference schemes for the Euler equations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Klopfer, G. H.; Mcrae, D. S.

1983-01-01

It is pointed out that, in general, dissipative finite difference integration schemes have been found to be quite robust when applied to the Euler equations of gas dynamics. The present investigation considers a modified equation analysis of both implicit and explicit finite difference techniques as applied to the Euler equations. The analysis is used to identify those error terms which contribute most to the observed solution errors. A technique for analytically removing the dominant error terms is demonstrated, resulting in a greatly improved solution for the explicit Lax-Wendroff schemes. It is shown that the nonlinear truncation errors are quite large and distributed quite differently for each of the three conservation equations as applied to a one-dimensional shock tube problem.

Nonparametric Estimation of Standard Errors in Covariance Analysis Using the Infinitesimal Jackknife

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jennrich, Robert I.

2008-01-01

The infinitesimal jackknife provides a simple general method for estimating standard errors in covariance structure analysis. Beyond its simplicity and generality what makes the infinitesimal jackknife method attractive is that essentially no assumptions are required to produce consistent standard error estimates, not even the requirement that the…

Mark-Up-Based Writing Error Analysis Model in an On-Line Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Feng, Cheng; Yano, Yoneo; Ogata, Hiroaki

2000-01-01

Describes a new component called "Writing Error Analysis Model" (WEAM) in the CoCoA system for teaching writing composition in Japanese as a foreign language. The Weam can be used for analyzing learners' morphological errors and selecting appropriate compositions for learners' revising exercises. (Author/VWL)

Exploratory Factor Analysis of Reading, Spelling, and Math Errors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Brien, Rebecca; Pan, Xingyu; Courville, Troy; Bray, Melissa A.; Breaux, Kristina; Avitia, Maria; Choi, Dowon

2017-01-01

Norm-referenced error analysis is useful for understanding individual differences in students' academic skill development and for identifying areas of skill strength and weakness. The purpose of the present study was to identify underlying connections between error categories across five language and math subtests of the Kaufman Test of…

Investigation on coupling error characteristics in angular rate matching based ship deformation measurement approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Shuai; Wu, Wei; Wang, Xingshu; Xu, Zhiguang

2018-01-01

The coupling error in the measurement of ship hull deformation can significantly influence the attitude accuracy of the shipborne weapons and equipments. It is therefore important to study the characteristics of the coupling error. In this paper, an comprehensive investigation on the coupling error is reported, which has a potential of deducting the coupling error in the future. Firstly, the causes and characteristics of the coupling error are analyzed theoretically based on the basic theory of measuring ship deformation. Then, simulations are conducted for verifying the correctness of the theoretical analysis. Simulation results show that the cross-correlation between dynamic flexure and ship angular motion leads to the coupling error in measuring ship deformation, and coupling error increases with the correlation value between them. All the simulation results coincide with the theoretical analysis.

Analysis technique for controlling system wavefront error with active/adaptive optics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Genberg, Victor L.; Michels, Gregory J.

2017-08-01

The ultimate goal of an active mirror system is to control system level wavefront error (WFE). In the past, the use of this technique was limited by the difficulty of obtaining a linear optics model. In this paper, an automated method for controlling system level WFE using a linear optics model is presented. An error estimate is included in the analysis output for both surface error disturbance fitting and actuator influence function fitting. To control adaptive optics, the technique has been extended to write system WFE in state space matrix form. The technique is demonstrated by example with SigFit, a commercially available tool integrating mechanical analysis with optical analysis.

MO-FG-202-06: Improving the Performance of Gamma Analysis QA with Radiomics- Based Image Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wootton, L; Nyflot, M; Ford, E

2016-06-15

Purpose: The use of gamma analysis for IMRT quality assurance has well-known limitations. Traditionally, a simple thresholding technique is used to evaluated passing criteria. However, like any image the gamma distribution is rich in information which thresholding mostly discards. We therefore propose a novel method of analyzing gamma images that uses quantitative image features borrowed from radiomics, with the goal of improving error detection. Methods: 368 gamma images were generated from 184 clinical IMRT beams. For each beam the dose to a phantom was measured with EPID dosimetry and compared to the TPS dose calculated with and without normally distributedmore » (2mm sigma) errors in MLC positions. The magnitude of 17 intensity histogram and size-zone radiomic features were derived from each image. The features that differed most significantly between image sets were determined with ROC analysis. A linear machine-learning model was trained on these features to classify images as with or without errors on 180 gamma images.The model was then applied to an independent validation set of 188 additional gamma distributions, half with and half without errors. Results: The most significant features for detecting errors were histogram kurtosis (p=0.007) and three size-zone metrics (p<1e-6 for each). The sizezone metrics detected clusters of high gamma-value pixels under mispositioned MLCs. The model applied to the validation set had an AUC of 0.8, compared to 0.56 for traditional gamma analysis with the decision threshold restricted to 98% or less. Conclusion: A radiomics-based image analysis method was developed that is more effective in detecting error than traditional gamma analysis. Though the pilot study here considers only MLC position errors, radiomics-based methods for other error types are being developed, which may provide better error detection and useful information on the source of detected errors. This work was partially supported by a grant from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, grant number R18 HS022244-01.« less

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of an Automated Medication System Implemented in a Danish Hospital Setting.

PubMed

Risør, Bettina Wulff; Lisby, Marianne; Sørensen, Jan

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of an automated medication system (AMS) implemented in a Danish hospital setting. An economic evaluation was performed alongside a controlled before-and-after effectiveness study with one control ward and one intervention ward. The primary outcome measure was the number of errors in the medication administration process observed prospectively before and after implementation. To determine the difference in proportion of errors after implementation of the AMS, logistic regression was applied with the presence of error(s) as the dependent variable. Time, group, and interaction between time and group were the independent variables. The cost analysis used the hospital perspective with a short-term incremental costing approach. The total 6-month costs with and without the AMS were calculated as well as the incremental costs. The number of avoided administration errors was related to the incremental costs to obtain the cost-effectiveness ratio expressed as the cost per avoided administration error. The AMS resulted in a statistically significant reduction in the proportion of errors in the intervention ward compared with the control ward. The cost analysis showed that the AMS increased the ward's 6-month cost by €16,843. The cost-effectiveness ratio was estimated at €2.01 per avoided administration error, €2.91 per avoided procedural error, and €19.38 per avoided clinical error. The AMS was effective in reducing errors in the medication administration process at a higher overall cost. The cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the AMS was associated with affordable cost-effectiveness rates. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

FRamework Assessing Notorious Contributing Influences for Error (FRANCIE): Perspective on Taxonomy Development to Support Error Reporting and Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lon N. Haney; David I. Gertman

2003-04-01

Beginning in the 1980s a primary focus of human reliability analysis was estimation of human error probabilities. However, detailed qualitative modeling with comprehensive representation of contextual variables often was lacking. This was likely due to the lack of comprehensive error and performance shaping factor taxonomies, and the limited data available on observed error rates and their relationship to specific contextual variables. In the mid 90s Boeing, America West Airlines, NASA Ames Research Center and INEEL partnered in a NASA sponsored Advanced Concepts grant to: assess the state of the art in human error analysis, identify future needs for human errormore » analysis, and develop an approach addressing these needs. Identified needs included the need for a method to identify and prioritize task and contextual characteristics affecting human reliability. Other needs identified included developing comprehensive taxonomies to support detailed qualitative modeling and to structure meaningful data collection efforts across domains. A result was the development of the FRamework Assessing Notorious Contributing Influences for Error (FRANCIE) with a taxonomy for airline maintenance tasks. The assignment of performance shaping factors to generic errors by experts proved to be valuable to qualitative modeling. Performance shaping factors and error types from such detailed approaches can be used to structure error reporting schemes. In a recent NASA Advanced Human Support Technology grant FRANCIE was refined, and two new taxonomies for use on space missions were developed. The development, sharing, and use of error taxonomies, and the refinement of approaches for increased fidelity of qualitative modeling is offered as a means to help direct useful data collection strategies.« less

System review: a method for investigating medical errors in healthcare settings.

PubMed

Alexander, G L; Stone, T T

2000-01-01

System analysis is a process of evaluating objectives, resources, structure, and design of businesses. System analysis can be used by leaders to collaboratively identify breakthrough opportunities to improve system processes. In healthcare systems, system analysis can be used to review medical errors (system occurrences) that may place patients at risk for injury, disability, and/or death. This study utilizes a case management approach to identify medical errors. Utilizing an interdisciplinary approach, a System Review Team was developed to identify trends in system occurrences, facilitate communication, and enhance the quality of patient care by reducing medical errors.

Reliable absolute analog code retrieval approach for 3D measurement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Shuang; Zhang, Jing; Yu, Xiaoyang; Sun, Xiaoming; Wu, Haibin; Chen, Deyun

2017-11-01

The wrapped phase of phase-shifting approach can be unwrapped by using Gray code, but both the wrapped phase error and Gray code decoding error can result in period jump error, which will lead to gross measurement error. Therefore, this paper presents a reliable absolute analog code retrieval approach. The combination of unequal-period Gray code and phase shifting patterns at high frequencies are used to obtain high-frequency absolute analog code, and at low frequencies, the same unequal-period combination patterns are used to obtain the low-frequency absolute analog code. Next, the difference between the two absolute analog codes was employed to eliminate period jump errors, and a reliable unwrapped result can be obtained. Error analysis was used to determine the applicable conditions, and this approach was verified through theoretical analysis. The proposed approach was further verified experimentally. Theoretical analysis and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed approach can perform reliable analog code unwrapping.

Anatomic, clinical, and neuropsychological correlates of spelling errors in primary progressive aphasia.

PubMed

Shim, Hyungsub; Hurley, Robert S; Rogalski, Emily; Mesulam, M-Marsel

2012-07-01

This study evaluates spelling errors in the three subtypes of primary progressive aphasia (PPA): agrammatic (PPA-G), logopenic (PPA-L), and semantic (PPA-S). Forty-one PPA patients and 36 age-matched healthy controls were administered a test of spelling. The total number of errors and types of errors in spelling to dictation of regular words, exception words and nonwords, were recorded. Error types were classified based on phonetic plausibility. In the first analysis, scores were evaluated by clinical diagnosis. Errors in spelling exception words and phonetically plausible errors were seen in PPA-S. Conversely, PPA-G was associated with errors in nonword spelling and phonetically implausible errors. In the next analysis, spelling scores were correlated to other neuropsychological language test scores. Significant correlations were found between exception word spelling and measures of naming and single word comprehension. Nonword spelling correlated with tests of grammar and repetition. Global language measures did not correlate significantly with spelling scores, however. Cortical thickness analysis based on MRI showed that atrophy in several language regions of interest were correlated with spelling errors. Atrophy in the left supramarginal gyrus and inferior frontal gyrus (IFG) pars orbitalis correlated with errors in nonword spelling, while thinning in the left temporal pole and fusiform gyrus correlated with errors in exception word spelling. Additionally, phonetically implausible errors in regular word spelling correlated with thinning in the left IFG pars triangularis and pars opercularis. Together, these findings suggest two independent systems for spelling to dictation, one phonetic (phoneme to grapheme conversion), and one lexical (whole word retrieval). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Generalized Structured Component Analysis with Uniqueness Terms for Accommodating Measurement Error

PubMed Central

Hwang, Heungsun; Takane, Yoshio; Jung, Kwanghee

2017-01-01

Generalized structured component analysis (GSCA) is a component-based approach to structural equation modeling (SEM), where latent variables are approximated by weighted composites of indicators. It has no formal mechanism to incorporate errors in indicators, which in turn renders components prone to the errors as well. We propose to extend GSCA to account for errors in indicators explicitly. This extension, called GSCAM, considers both common and unique parts of indicators, as postulated in common factor analysis, and estimates a weighted composite of indicators with their unique parts removed. Adding such unique parts or uniqueness terms serves to account for measurement errors in indicators in a manner similar to common factor analysis. Simulation studies are conducted to compare parameter recovery of GSCAM and existing methods. These methods are also applied to fit a substantively well-established model to real data. PMID:29270146

Analyse des erreurs et grammaire generative: La syntaxe de l'interrogation en francais (Error Analysis and Generative Grammar: The Syntax of Interrogation in French).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Py, Bernard

A progress report is presented of a study which applies a system of generative grammar to error analysis. The objective of the study was to reconstruct the grammar of students' interlanguage, using a systematic analysis of errors. (Interlanguage refers to the linguistic competence of a student who possesses a relatively systematic body of rules,…

Behind Human Error: Cognitive Systems, Computers and Hindsight

DTIC Science & Technology

1994-12-01

evaluations • Organize and/or conduct workshops and conferences CSERIAC is a Department of Defense Information Analysis Cen- ter sponsored by the Defense...Process 185 Neutral Observer Criteria 191 Error Analysis as Causal Judgment 193 Error as Information 195 A Fundamental Surprise 195 What is Human...Kahnemann, 1974), and in risk analysis (Dougherty and Fragola, 1990). The discussions have continued in a wide variety of forums, includ- ing the

Wave analysis of a plenoptic system and its applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shroff, Sapna A.; Berkner, Kathrin

2013-03-01

Traditional imaging systems directly image a 2D object plane on to the sensor. Plenoptic imaging systems contain a lenslet array at the conventional image plane and a sensor at the back focal plane of the lenslet array. In this configuration the data captured at the sensor is not a direct image of the object. Each lenslet effectively images the aperture of the main imaging lens at the sensor. Therefore the sensor data retains angular light-field information which can be used for a posteriori digital computation of multi-angle images and axially refocused images. If a filter array, containing spectral filters or neutral density or polarization filters, is placed at the pupil aperture of the main imaging lens, then each lenslet images the filters on to the sensor. This enables the digital separation of multiple filter modalities giving single snapshot, multi-modal images. Due to the diversity of potential applications of plenoptic systems, their investigation is increasing. As the application space moves towards microscopes and other complex systems, and as pixel sizes become smaller, the consideration of diffraction effects in these systems becomes increasingly important. We discuss a plenoptic system and its wave propagation analysis for both coherent and incoherent imaging. We simulate a system response using our analysis and discuss various applications of the system response pertaining to plenoptic system design, implementation and calibration.

Ontology of gaps in content-based image retrieval.

PubMed

Deserno, Thomas M; Antani, Sameer; Long, Rodney

2009-04-01

Content-based image retrieval (CBIR) is a promising technology to enrich the core functionality of picture archiving and communication systems (PACS). CBIR has a potential for making a strong impact in diagnostics, research, and education. Research as reported in the scientific literature, however, has not made significant inroads as medical CBIR applications incorporated into routine clinical medicine or medical research. The cause is often attributed (without supporting analysis) to the inability of these applications in overcoming the "semantic gap." The semantic gap divides the high-level scene understanding and interpretation available with human cognitive capabilities from the low-level pixel analysis of computers, based on mathematical processing and artificial intelligence methods. In this paper, we suggest a more systematic and comprehensive view of the concept of "gaps" in medical CBIR research. In particular, we define an ontology of 14 gaps that addresses the image content and features, as well as system performance and usability. In addition to these gaps, we identify seven system characteristics that impact CBIR applicability and performance. The framework we have created can be used a posteriori to compare medical CBIR systems and approaches for specific biomedical image domains and goals and a priori during the design phase of a medical CBIR application, as the systematic analysis of gaps provides detailed insight in system comparison and helps to direct future research.

Accuracy improvement of the H-drive air-levitating wafer inspection stage based on error analysis and compensation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Fan; Liu, Pinkuan

2018-04-01

In order to improve the inspection precision of the H-drive air-bearing stage for wafer inspection, in this paper the geometric error of the stage is analyzed and compensated. The relationship between the positioning errors and error sources are initially modeled, and seven error components are identified that are closely related to the inspection accuracy. The most effective factor that affects the geometric error is identified by error sensitivity analysis. Then, the Spearman rank correlation method is applied to find the correlation between different error components, aiming at guiding the accuracy design and error compensation of the stage. Finally, different compensation methods, including the three-error curve interpolation method, the polynomial interpolation method, the Chebyshev polynomial interpolation method, and the B-spline interpolation method, are employed within the full range of the stage, and their results are compared. Simulation and experiment show that the B-spline interpolation method based on the error model has better compensation results. In addition, the research result is valuable for promoting wafer inspection accuracy and will greatly benefit the semiconductor industry.

Error rate information in attention allocation pilot models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Faulkner, W. H.; Onstott, E. D.

1977-01-01

The Northrop urgency decision pilot model was used in a command tracking task to compare the optimized performance of multiaxis attention allocation pilot models whose urgency functions were (1) based on tracking error alone, and (2) based on both tracking error and error rate. A matrix of system dynamics and command inputs was employed, to create both symmetric and asymmetric two axis compensatory tracking tasks. All tasks were single loop on each axis. Analysis showed that a model that allocates control attention through nonlinear urgency functions using only error information could not achieve performance of the full model whose attention shifting algorithm included both error and error rate terms. Subsequent to this analysis, tracking performance predictions for the full model were verified by piloted flight simulation. Complete model and simulation data are presented.

Functional analysis and classification of phytoplankton based on data from an automated flow cytometer.

PubMed

Malkassian, Anthony; Nerini, David; van Dijk, Mark A; Thyssen, Melilotus; Mante, Claude; Gregori, Gerald

2011-04-01

Analytical flow cytometry (FCM) is well suited for the analysis of phytoplankton communities in fresh and sea waters. The measurement of light scatter and autofluorescence properties of particles by FCM provides optical fingerprints, which enables different phytoplankton groups to be separated. A submersible version of the CytoSense flow cytometer (the CytoSub) has been designed for in situ autonomous sampling and analysis, making it possible to monitor phytoplankton at a short temporal scale and obtain accurate information about its dynamics. For data analysis, a manual clustering is usually performed a posteriori: data are displayed on histograms and scatterplots, and group discrimination is made by drawing and combining regions (gating). The purpose of this study is to provide greater objectivity in the data analysis by applying a nonmanual and consistent method to automatically discriminate clusters of particles. In other words, we seek for partitioning methods based on the optical fingerprints of each particle. As the CytoSense is able to record the full pulse shape for each variable, it quickly generates a large and complex dataset to analyze. The shape, length, and area of each curve were chosen as descriptors for the analysis. To test the developed method, numerical experiments were performed on simulated curves. Then, the method was applied and validated on phytoplankton cultures data. Promising results have been obtained with a mixture of various species whose optical fingerprints overlapped considerably and could not be accurately separated using manual gating. Copyright © 2011 International Society for Advancement of Cytometry.

High-frequency video capture and a computer program with frame-by-frame angle determination functionality as tools that support judging in artistic gymnastics.

PubMed

Omorczyk, Jarosław; Nosiadek, Leszek; Ambroży, Tadeusz; Nosiadek, Andrzej

2015-01-01

The main aim of this study was to verify the usefulness of selected simple methods of recording and fast biomechanical analysis performed by judges of artistic gymnastics in assessing a gymnast's movement technique. The study participants comprised six artistic gymnastics judges, who assessed back handsprings using two methods: a real-time observation method and a frame-by-frame video analysis method. They also determined flexion angles of knee and hip joints using the computer program. In the case of the real-time observation method, the judges gave a total of 5.8 error points with an arithmetic mean of 0.16 points for the flexion of the knee joints. In the high-speed video analysis method, the total amounted to 8.6 error points and the mean value amounted to 0.24 error points. For the excessive flexion of hip joints, the sum of the error values was 2.2 error points and the arithmetic mean was 0.06 error points during real-time observation. The sum obtained using frame-by-frame analysis method equaled 10.8 and the mean equaled 0.30 error points. Error values obtained through the frame-by-frame video analysis of movement technique were higher than those obtained through the real-time observation method. The judges were able to indicate the number of the frame in which the maximal joint flexion occurred with good accuracy. Using the real-time observation method as well as the high-speed video analysis performed without determining the exact angle for assessing movement technique were found to be insufficient tools for improving the quality of judging.

A study for systematic errors of the GLA forecast model in tropical regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Tsing-Chang; Baker, Wayman E.; Pfaendtner, James; Corrigan, Martin

1988-01-01

From the sensitivity studies performed with the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres (GLA) analysis/forecast system, it was revealed that the forecast errors in the tropics affect the ability to forecast midlatitude weather in some cases. Apparently, the forecast errors occurring in the tropics can propagate to midlatitudes. Therefore, the systematic error analysis of the GLA forecast system becomes a necessary step in improving the model's forecast performance. The major effort of this study is to examine the possible impact of the hydrological-cycle forecast error on dynamical fields in the GLA forecast system.

JPL-ANTOPT antenna structure optimization program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strain, D. M.

1994-01-01

New antenna path-length error and pointing-error structure optimization codes were recently added to the MSC/NASTRAN structural analysis computer program. Path-length and pointing errors are important measured of structure-related antenna performance. The path-length and pointing errors are treated as scalar displacements for statics loading cases. These scalar displacements can be subject to constraint during the optimization process. Path-length and pointing-error calculations supplement the other optimization and sensitivity capabilities of NASTRAN. The analysis and design functions were implemented as 'DMAP ALTERs' to the Design Optimization (SOL 200) Solution Sequence of MSC-NASTRAN, Version 67.5.

Implications of Error Analysis Studies for Academic Interventions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mather, Nancy; Wendling, Barbara J.

2017-01-01

We reviewed 13 studies that focused on analyzing student errors on achievement tests from the Kaufman Test of Educational Achievement-Third edition (KTEA-3). The intent was to determine what instructional implications could be derived from in-depth error analysis. As we reviewed these studies, several themes emerged. We explain how a careful…

A Conjoint Analysis Framework for Evaluating User Preferences in Machine Translation

PubMed Central

Kirchhoff, Katrin; Capurro, Daniel; Turner, Anne M.

2013-01-01

Despite much research on machine translation (MT) evaluation, there is surprisingly little work that directly measures users’ intuitive or emotional preferences regarding different types of MT errors. However, the elicitation and modeling of user preferences is an important prerequisite for research on user adaptation and customization of MT engines. In this paper we explore the use of conjoint analysis as a formal quantitative framework to assess users’ relative preferences for different types of translation errors. We apply our approach to the analysis of MT output from translating public health documents from English into Spanish. Our results indicate that word order errors are clearly the most dispreferred error type, followed by word sense, morphological, and function word errors. The conjoint analysis-based model is able to predict user preferences more accurately than a baseline model that chooses the translation with the fewest errors overall. Additionally we analyze the effect of using a crowd-sourced respondent population versus a sample of domain experts and observe that main preference effects are remarkably stable across the two samples. PMID:24683295

Analysis of Free-Space Coupling to Photonic Lanterns in the Presence of Tilt Errors

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-05-01

Analysis of Free- Space Coupling to Photonic Lanterns in the Presence of Tilt Errors Timothy M. Yarnall, David J. Geisler, Curt M. Schieler...Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02139, USA Abstract—Free space coupling to photonic lanterns is more tolerant to tilt errors and F -number mismatch than...these errors. I. INTRODUCTION Photonic lanterns provide a means for transitioning from the free space regime to the single-mode fiber (SMF) regime by

Quotation accuracy in medical journal articles-a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jergas, Hannah; Baethge, Christopher

2015-01-01

Background. Quotations and references are an indispensable element of scientific communication. They should support what authors claim or provide important background information for readers. Studies indicate, however, that quotations not serving their purpose-quotation errors-may be prevalent. Methods. We carried out a systematic review, meta-analysis and meta-regression of quotation errors, taking account of differences between studies in error ascertainment. Results. Out of 559 studies screened we included 28 in the main analysis, and estimated major, minor and total quotation error rates of 11,9%, 95% CI [8.4, 16.6] 11.5% [8.3, 15.7], and 25.4% [19.5, 32.4]. While heterogeneity was substantial, even the lowest estimate of total quotation errors was considerable (6.7%). Indirect references accounted for less than one sixth of all quotation problems. The findings remained robust in a number of sensitivity and subgroup analyses (including risk of bias analysis) and in meta-regression. There was no indication of publication bias. Conclusions. Readers of medical journal articles should be aware of the fact that quotation errors are common. Measures against quotation errors include spot checks by editors and reviewers, correct placement of citations in the text, and declarations by authors that they have checked cited material. Future research should elucidate if and to what degree quotation errors are detrimental to scientific progress.

ATC operational error analysis.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1972-01-01

The primary causes of operational errors are discussed and the effects of these errors on an ATC system's performance are described. No attempt is made to specify possible error models for the spectrum of blunders that can occur although previous res...

Kinematic Analysis of Speech Sound Sequencing Errors Induced by Delayed Auditory Feedback.

PubMed

Cler, Gabriel J; Lee, Jackson C; Mittelman, Talia; Stepp, Cara E; Bohland, Jason W

2017-06-22

Delayed auditory feedback (DAF) causes speakers to become disfluent and make phonological errors. Methods for assessing the kinematics of speech errors are lacking, with most DAF studies relying on auditory perceptual analyses, which may be problematic, as errors judged to be categorical may actually represent blends of sounds or articulatory errors. Eight typical speakers produced nonsense syllable sequences under normal and DAF (200 ms). Lip and tongue kinematics were captured with electromagnetic articulography. Time-locked acoustic recordings were transcribed, and the kinematics of utterances with and without perceived errors were analyzed with existing and novel quantitative methods. New multivariate measures showed that for 5 participants, kinematic variability for productions perceived to be error free was significantly increased under delay; these results were validated by using the spatiotemporal index measure. Analysis of error trials revealed both typical productions of a nontarget syllable and productions with articulatory kinematics that incorporated aspects of both the target and the perceived utterance. This study is among the first to characterize articulatory changes under DAF and provides evidence for different classes of speech errors, which may not be perceptually salient. New methods were developed that may aid visualization and analysis of large kinematic data sets. https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.5103067.

Comprehensive analysis of a medication dosing error related to CPOE.

PubMed

Horsky, Jan; Kuperman, Gilad J; Patel, Vimla L

2005-01-01

This case study of a serious medication error demonstrates the necessity of a comprehensive methodology for the analysis of failures in interaction between humans and information systems. The authors used a novel approach to analyze a dosing error related to computer-based ordering of potassium chloride (KCl). The method included a chronological reconstruction of events and their interdependencies from provider order entry usage logs, semistructured interviews with involved clinicians, and interface usability inspection of the ordering system. Information collected from all sources was compared and evaluated to understand how the error evolved and propagated through the system. In this case, the error was the product of faults in interaction among human and system agents that methods limited in scope to their distinct analytical domains would not identify. The authors characterized errors in several converging aspects of the drug ordering process: confusing on-screen laboratory results review, system usability difficulties, user training problems, and suboptimal clinical system safeguards that all contributed to a serious dosing error. The results of the authors' analysis were used to formulate specific recommendations for interface layout and functionality modifications, suggest new user alerts, propose changes to user training, and address error-prone steps of the KCl ordering process to reduce the risk of future medication dosing errors.

Kinematic Analysis of Speech Sound Sequencing Errors Induced by Delayed Auditory Feedback

PubMed Central

Lee, Jackson C.; Mittelman, Talia; Stepp, Cara E.; Bohland, Jason W.

2017-01-01

Purpose Delayed auditory feedback (DAF) causes speakers to become disfluent and make phonological errors. Methods for assessing the kinematics of speech errors are lacking, with most DAF studies relying on auditory perceptual analyses, which may be problematic, as errors judged to be categorical may actually represent blends of sounds or articulatory errors. Method Eight typical speakers produced nonsense syllable sequences under normal and DAF (200 ms). Lip and tongue kinematics were captured with electromagnetic articulography. Time-locked acoustic recordings were transcribed, and the kinematics of utterances with and without perceived errors were analyzed with existing and novel quantitative methods. Results New multivariate measures showed that for 5 participants, kinematic variability for productions perceived to be error free was significantly increased under delay; these results were validated by using the spatiotemporal index measure. Analysis of error trials revealed both typical productions of a nontarget syllable and productions with articulatory kinematics that incorporated aspects of both the target and the perceived utterance. Conclusions This study is among the first to characterize articulatory changes under DAF and provides evidence for different classes of speech errors, which may not be perceptually salient. New methods were developed that may aid visualization and analysis of large kinematic data sets. Supplemental Material https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.5103067 PMID:28655038

Impact and quantification of the sources of error in DNA pooling designs.

PubMed

Jawaid, A; Sham, P

2009-01-01

The analysis of genome wide variation offers the possibility of unravelling the genes involved in the pathogenesis of disease. Genome wide association studies are also particularly useful for identifying and validating targets for therapeutic intervention as well as for detecting markers for drug efficacy and side effects. The cost of such large-scale genetic association studies may be reduced substantially by the analysis of pooled DNA from multiple individuals. However, experimental errors inherent in pooling studies lead to a potential increase in the false positive rate and a loss in power compared to individual genotyping. Here we quantify various sources of experimental error using empirical data from typical pooling experiments and corresponding individual genotyping counts using two statistical methods. We provide analytical formulas for calculating these different errors in the absence of complete information, such as replicate pool formation, and for adjusting for the errors in the statistical analysis. We demonstrate that DNA pooling has the potential of estimating allele frequencies accurately, and adjusting the pooled allele frequency estimates for differential allelic amplification considerably improves accuracy. Estimates of the components of error show that differential allelic amplification is the most important contributor to the error variance in absolute allele frequency estimation, followed by allele frequency measurement and pool formation errors. Our results emphasise the importance of minimising experimental errors and obtaining correct error estimates in genetic association studies.

Error of semiclassical eigenvalues in the semiclassical limit - an asymptotic analysis of the Sinai billiard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahlqvist, Per

1999-10-01

We estimate the error in the semiclassical trace formula for the Sinai billiard under the assumption that the largest source of error is due to penumbra diffraction: namely, diffraction effects for trajectories passing within a distance Ricons/Journals/Common/cdot" ALT="cdot" ALIGN="TOP"/>O((kR)-2/3) to the disc and trajectories being scattered in very forward directions. Here k is the momentum and R the radius of the scatterer. The semiclassical error is estimated by perturbing the Berry-Keating formula. The analysis necessitates an asymptotic analysis of very long periodic orbits. This is obtained within an approximation originally due to Baladi, Eckmann and Ruelle. We find that the average error, for sufficiently large values of kR, will exceed the mean level spacing.

Study on Network Error Analysis and Locating based on Integrated Information Decision System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, F.; Dong, Z. H.

2017-10-01

Integrated information decision system (IIDS) integrates multiple sub-system developed by many facilities, including almost hundred kinds of software, which provides with various services, such as email, short messages, drawing and sharing. Because the under-layer protocols are different, user standards are not unified, many errors are occurred during the stages of setup, configuration, and operation, which seriously affect the usage. Because the errors are various, which may be happened in different operation phases, stages, TCP/IP communication protocol layers, sub-system software, it is necessary to design a network error analysis and locating tool for IIDS to solve the above problems. This paper studies on network error analysis and locating based on IIDS, which provides strong theory and technology supports for the running and communicating of IIDS.

Validation of Metrics as Error Predictors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mendling, Jan

In this chapter, we test the validity of metrics that were defined in the previous chapter for predicting errors in EPC business process models. In Section 5.1, we provide an overview of how the analysis data is generated. Section 5.2 describes the sample of EPCs from practice that we use for the analysis. Here we discuss a disaggregation by the EPC model group and by error as well as a correlation analysis between metrics and error. Based on this sample, we calculate a logistic regression model for predicting error probability with the metrics as input variables in Section 5.3. In Section 5.4, we then test the regression function for an independent sample of EPC models from textbooks as a cross-validation. Section 5.5 summarizes the findings.

Modelling of turbulent lifted jet flames using flamelets: a priori assessment and a posteriori validation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruan, Shaohong; Swaminathan, Nedunchezhian; Darbyshire, Oliver

2014-03-01

This study focuses on the modelling of turbulent lifted jet flames using flamelets and a presumed Probability Density Function (PDF) approach with interest in both flame lift-off height and flame brush structure. First, flamelet models used to capture contributions from premixed and non-premixed modes of the partially premixed combustion in the lifted jet flame are assessed using a Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) data for a turbulent lifted hydrogen jet flame. The joint PDFs of mixture fraction Z and progress variable c, including their statistical correlation, are obtained using a copula method, which is also validated using the DNS data. The statistically independent PDFs are found to be generally inadequate to represent the joint PDFs from the DNS data. The effects of Z-c correlation and the contribution from the non-premixed combustion mode on the flame lift-off height are studied systematically by including one effect at a time in the simulations used for a posteriori validation. A simple model including the effects of chemical kinetics and scalar dissipation rate is suggested and used for non-premixed combustion contributions. The results clearly show that both Z-c correlation and non-premixed combustion effects are required in the premixed flamelets approach to get good agreement with the measured flame lift-off heights as a function of jet velocity. The flame brush structure reported in earlier experimental studies is also captured reasonably well for various axial positions. It seems that flame stabilisation is influenced by both premixed and non-premixed combustion modes, and their mutual influences.

Incorporating priors on expert performance parameters for segmentation validation and label fusion: a maximum a posteriori STAPLE

PubMed Central

Commowick, Olivier; Warfield, Simon K

2010-01-01

In order to evaluate the quality of segmentations of an image and assess intra- and inter-expert variability in segmentation performance, an Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm for Simultaneous Truth And Performance Level Estimation (STAPLE) was recently developed. This algorithm, originally presented for segmentation validation, has since been used for many applications, such as atlas construction and decision fusion. However, the manual delineation of structures of interest is a very time consuming and burdensome task. Further, as the time required and burden of manual delineation increase, the accuracy of the delineation is decreased. Therefore, it may be desirable to ask the experts to delineate only a reduced number of structures or the segmentation of all structures by all experts may simply not be achieved. Fusion from data with some structures not segmented by each expert should be carried out in a manner that accounts for the missing information. In other applications, locally inconsistent segmentations may drive the STAPLE algorithm into an undesirable local optimum, leading to misclassifications or misleading experts performance parameters. We present a new algorithm that allows fusion with partial delineation and which can avoid convergence to undesirable local optima in the presence of strongly inconsistent segmentations. The algorithm extends STAPLE by incorporating prior probabilities for the expert performance parameters. This is achieved through a Maximum A Posteriori formulation, where the prior probabilities for the performance parameters are modeled by a beta distribution. We demonstrate that this new algorithm enables dramatically improved fusion from data with partial delineation by each expert in comparison to fusion with STAPLE. PMID:20879379

Nutrition and healthy ageing: the key ingredients.

PubMed

Kiefte-de Jong, Jessica C; Mathers, John C; Franco, Oscar H

2014-05-01

Healthy longevity is a tangible possibility for many individuals and populations, with nutritional and other lifestyle factors playing a key role in modulating the likelihood of healthy ageing. Nevertheless, studies of effects of nutrients or single foods on ageing often show inconsistent results and ignore the overall framework of dietary habits. Therefore, the use of dietary patterns (e.g. a Mediterranean dietary pattern) and the specific dietary recommendations (e.g. dietary approaches to stop hypertension, Polymeal and the American Healthy Eating Index) are becoming more widespread in promoting lifelong health. A posteriori defined dietary patterns are described frequently in relation to age-related diseases but their generalisability is often a challenge since these are developed specifically for the population under study. Conversely, the dietary guidelines are often developed based on prevention of disease or nutrient deficiency, but often less attention is paid to how well these dietary guidelines promote health outcomes. In the present paper, we provide an overview of the state of the art of dietary patterns and dietary recommendations in relation to life expectancy and the risk of age-related disorders (with emphasis on cardiometabolic diseases and cognitive outcomes). According to both a posteriori and a priori dietary patterns, some key 'ingredients' can be identified that are associated consistently with longevity and better cardiometabolic and cognitive health. These include high intake of fruit, vegetables, fish, (whole) grains and legumes/pulses and potatoes, whereas dietary patterns rich in red meat and sugar-rich foods have been associated with an increased risk of mortality and cardiometabolic outcomes.

Incorporating priors on expert performance parameters for segmentation validation and label fusion: a maximum a posteriori STAPLE.

PubMed

Commowick, Olivier; Warfield, Simon K

2010-01-01

In order to evaluate the quality of segmentations of an image and assess intra- and inter-expert variability in segmentation performance, an Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm for Simultaneous Truth And Performance Level Estimation (STAPLE) was recently developed. This algorithm, originally presented for segmentation validation, has since been used for many applications, such as atlas construction and decision fusion. However, the manual delineation of structures of interest is a very time consuming and burdensome task. Further, as the time required and burden of manual delineation increase, the accuracy of the delineation is decreased. Therefore, it may be desirable to ask the experts to delineate only a reduced number of structures or the segmentation of all structures by all experts may simply not be achieved. Fusion from data with some structures not segmented by each expert should be carried out in a manner that accounts for the missing information. In other applications, locally inconsistent segmentations may drive the STAPLE algorithm into an undesirable local optimum, leading to misclassifications or misleading experts performance parameters. We present a new algorithm that allows fusion with partial delineation and which can avoid convergence to undesirable local optima in the presence of strongly inconsistent segmentations. The algorithm extends STAPLE by incorporating prior probabilities for the expert performance parameters. This is achieved through a Maximum A Posteriori formulation, where the prior probabilities for the performance parameters are modeled by a beta distribution. We demonstrate that this new algorithm enables dramatically improved fusion from data with partial delineation by each expert in comparison to fusion with STAPLE.