Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options.

PubMed

Reed, M S; Podesta, G; Fazey, I; Geeson, N; Hessel, R; Hubacek, K; Letson, D; Nainggolan, D; Prell, C; Rickenbach, M G; Ritsema, C; Schwilch, G; Stringer, L C; Thomas, A D

2013-10-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change.

Q-BIC3 - A Québec-Bavarian international collaboration for adapting regional watershed management to climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ludwig, Ralf

2010-05-01

Adapting to the impacts of climate change is certainly one of the major challenges in water resources management over the next decades. Adaptation to climate change risks is most crucial in this domain, since projected increase in mean air temperature in combination with an expected increase in the temporal variability of precipitation patterns will contribute to pressure on current water availability, allocation and management practices. The latter often involve the utilization of valuable infrastructure, such as dams, reservoirs and water intakes, for which adaptation options must by developed over long-term and often dynamic planning horizons. Research to establish novel methodologies for improved adaptation to climate change is thus very important and only beginning to emerge in regional watershed management. The presented project Q-BIC³, funded by the Bavarian Minstry for the Environment and the Québec Ministère du Développement économique, de l'Innovation et de l'Exportation, aims to develop and apply a newly designed spectrum of tools to support the improved assessment of adaptation options to climate change in regional watershed management. It addresses in particular selected study sites in Québec and Bavaria. The following key issues have been prioritized within Q-BIC³: i) The definition of potential adaptation options in the context of climate change for pre-targeted water management key issues using a subsequent and logical chain of modelling tools (climate, hydrological and water management modeling tools) ii) The definition of an approach that accounts for hydrological projection uncertainties in the search for potential adaptation options in the context of climate change iii) The investigation of the required complexity in hydrological models to estimate climate change impacts and to develop specific adaptation options for Québec and Bavaria watersheds. iv) The development and prototyping of a regionally transferable and modular modelling system for integrated watershed management under climate change conditions. The study sites under investigation, namely the Haut-Saint Francois and Gatineau watersheds in Québec and the Isar and Regnitz catchments in Bavaria, are under heavy anthropogenic use. Intense dam and reservoir operations and even water transfer systems are in place to satisfy multi-purpose demands on available water resources. These are imposing extreme modifications to the natural flow regimes. In the first phase of the project, climatic forcing, stemming from an ensemble of selected GCM and RCM runs, is applied to a variety of hydrological models with different complexity. The derived projections of future hydrological conditions serve to investigate, whether current operation rules and/or existing infrastructure needs to be adapted to a changing environment. First findings demonstrate the large uncertainties associated to the model chain outputs, but also indicate that related adaptation is indispensable to meet the challenges of the rapidly changing man-environment systems.

Monitoring protocols: options, approaches, implementation, benefits

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Monitoring and adaptive management are fundamental concepts to rangeland management across land management agencies and embodied as best management practices for private landowners. Historically, rangeland monitoring was limited to determining impacts or maximizing the potential of specific land use...

Ensemble yield simulations: Using heat-tolerant and later-maturing varieties to adapt to climate warming.

PubMed

Zhang, Yi; Zhao, Yanxia

2017-01-01

The use of modern crop varieties is a dominant method of obtaining high yields in crop production. Efforts to identify suitable varieties, with characteristics that would increase crop yield under future climate conditions, remain essential to developing sustainable agriculture and food security. This work aims to evaluate potential genotypic adaptations (i.e., using varieties with increased ability to produce desirable grain numbers under high temperatures and with enhanced thermal time requirements during the grain-filling period) to cope with the negative impacts of climate change on maize yield. The contributions of different options were investigated at six sites in the North China Plain using the APSIM model and the outputs of 8 GCMs under RCP4.5 scenarios. It was found that without considering adaptation options, mean maize yield would decrease by 7~18% during 2010-2039 relative to 1976-2005. A large decrease in grain number relative to stabilized grain weight decreased maize yield under future climate scenarios. Using heat-tolerant varieties, maize yield could increase on average by 6% to 10%. Using later maturing varieties, e.g., enhanced thermal time requirements during the grain-filling period, maize yield could increase by 7% to 10%. The optimal adaptation options were site specific.

Ensemble yield simulations: Using heat-tolerant and later-maturing varieties to adapt to climate warming

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yi

2017-01-01

The use of modern crop varieties is a dominant method of obtaining high yields in crop production. Efforts to identify suitable varieties, with characteristics that would increase crop yield under future climate conditions, remain essential to developing sustainable agriculture and food security. This work aims to evaluate potential genotypic adaptations (i.e., using varieties with increased ability to produce desirable grain numbers under high temperatures and with enhanced thermal time requirements during the grain-filling period) to cope with the negative impacts of climate change on maize yield. The contributions of different options were investigated at six sites in the North China Plain using the APSIM model and the outputs of 8 GCMs under RCP4.5 scenarios. It was found that without considering adaptation options, mean maize yield would decrease by 7~18% during 2010–2039 relative to 1976–2005. A large decrease in grain number relative to stabilized grain weight decreased maize yield under future climate scenarios. Using heat-tolerant varieties, maize yield could increase on average by 6% to 10%. Using later maturing varieties, e.g., enhanced thermal time requirements during the grain-filling period, maize yield could increase by 7% to 10%. The optimal adaptation options were site specific. PMID:28459880

Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture.

PubMed

Vermeulen, Sonja J; Challinor, Andrew J; Thornton, Philip K; Campbell, Bruce M; Eriyagama, Nishadi; Vervoort, Joost M; Kinyangi, James; Jarvis, Andy; Läderach, Peter; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Nicklin, Kathryn J; Hawkins, Ed; Smith, Daniel R

2013-05-21

We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop-climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.

Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture

PubMed Central

Vermeulen, Sonja J.; Challinor, Andrew J.; Thornton, Philip K.; Campbell, Bruce M.; Eriyagama, Nishadi; Vervoort, Joost M.; Kinyangi, James; Jarvis, Andy; Läderach, Peter; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Nicklin, Kathryn J.; Hawkins, Ed; Smith, Daniel R.

2013-01-01

We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop–climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty. PMID:23674681

Biodiversity Hotspots, Climate Change, and Agricultural Development: Global Limits of Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schneider, U. A.; Rasche, L.; Schmid, E.; Habel, J. C.

2017-12-01

Terrestrial ecosystems are threatened by climate and land management change. These changes result from complex and heterogeneous interactions of human activities and natural processes. Here, we study the potential change in pristine area in 33 global biodiversity hotspots within this century under four climate projections (representative concentration pathways) and associated population and income developments (shared socio-economic pathways). A coupled modelling framework computes the regional net expansion of crop and pasture lands as result of changes in food production and consumption. We use a biophysical crop simulation model to quantify climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, water, and nutrient emissions for alternative crop management systems in more than 100 thousand agricultural land polygons (homogeneous response units) and for each climate projection. The crop simulation model depicts detailed soil, weather, and management information and operates with a daily time step. We use time series of livestock statistics to link livestock production to feed and pasture requirements. On the food consumption side, we estimate national demand shifts in all countries by processing population and income growth projections through econometrically estimated Engel curves. Finally, we use a global agricultural sector optimization model to quantify the net change in pristine area in all biodiversity hotspots under different adaptation options. These options include full-scale global implementation of i) crop yield maximizing management without additional irrigation, ii) crop yield maximizing management with additional irrigation, iii) food yield maximizing crop mix adjustments, iv) food supply maximizing trade flow adjustments, v) healthy diets, and vi) combinations of the individual options above. Results quantify the regional potentials and limits of major agricultural producer and consumer adaptation options for the preservation of pristine areas in biodiversity hotspots. Results also quantify the conflicts between food and water security, biodiversity protection, and climate change mitigation.

Empirically Estimating the Potential for Farm-Level Adaptation to Climate Change in Western European Agriculture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, F. C.; Lobell, D. B.

2013-12-01

Agriculture is one of the economic sectors most exposed to climate change and estimating the sensitivity of food production to these changes is critical for determining the severity of climate change impacts and for informing both adaptation and mitigation policy. While climate change might have adverse effects in many areas, it has long been recognized that farmers have a suite of adaptation options at their disposal including, inter alia, changing planting date, varieties, crops, or the mix and quantity of inputs applied. These adaptations may significantly reduce the adverse impacts of climate change but the potential effectiveness of these options and the speed with which farmers will adopt them remain uncertain. We estimate the sensitivity of crop yields and farm profits in western Europe to climate change with and without the adoption of on-farm adaptations. We use cross-sectional variation across farms to define the long-run response function that includes adaptation and inter-annual variation within farms to define the short-run response function without adaptation. The difference between these can be interpreted as the potential for adaptation. We find that future warming will have a large adverse impact on wheat and barley yields and that adaptation will only be able to mitigate a small fraction of this. Maize, oilseed and sugarbeet yields are more modestly affected and adaptation is more effective for these crops. Farm profits could increase slightly under moderate amounts of warming if adaptations are adopted but will decline in the absence of adaptation. A decomposition of variance gives the relative importance of different sources of uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts. We find that in most cases uncertainty over future adaptation pathways (whether farmers will or will not adopt beneficial adaptations) is the most important source of uncertainty in projecting the effect of temperature changes on crop yields and farm profits. This source of uncertainty dominates both uncertainty over temperature projections (climate uncertainty) and uncertainty over how sensitive crops or profits are to changes in temperature (response uncertainty). Therefore, constraining how quickly farmers are likely to adapt will be essential for improving our understanding of how climate change will affect food production over the next few decades.

Synthesis of Adaptation Options for Coastal Areas

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Adaptation can help reduce the long-term costs associated with climate change. This document provides an introduction to climate change impacts and adaptation options for estuaries, beaches and coastal areas.

Adaptation Pathway of Low Impact Development Planning under Climate Change for a Sustainable Rural Community

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, P. Y.; Tung, C. P.

2016-12-01

The study focuses on developing the methodology of adaptation pathway for storm water management in a community scale. Following previous results on adaptation procedures including problem and goal setup, current risk assessment and analysis, future risk assessment and analysis, and adaptation options identification and evaluation, the study aims at analyzing adaptation pathway planning and implementation, namely the fifth step, for applying low impact development (LID). Based on the efficacy analyses of the feasible adaptation options, an adaptation pathway map can be build. Each pathway is a combination of the adaptation measures arranged in certain order. The developed adaptation pathway map visualizes the relative effectiveness and the connection of the adaptation measures. In addition, the tipping points of the system can be clearly identified and the triggers can be defined accordingly. There are multiple choices of pathways in an adaptation pathway map, which can be referred as pathway candidates. To ensure the applicability and operability, the methodology of adaptation pathway analysis is applied to a case study. Required information for developing an adaptation pathway map includes the scores of the adaptation options on the criteria, namely the effects, costs, immediacy, and side effect. Feasible adaptation options for the design case are dredging, pipeline expansion, pumping station, LID and detention pond. By ranking the options according to the criteria, LID is found dominating dredging and pumping station in this case. The information of the pathway candidates can be further used by the stakeholders to select the most suitable and promising pathway.

A coupled human-natural systems analysis of irrigated agriculture under changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giuliani, M.; Li, Y.; Castelletti, A.; Gandolfi, C.

2016-09-01

Exponentially growing water demands and increasingly uncertain hydrologic regimes due to changes in climate and land use are challenging the sustainability of agricultural water systems. Farmers must adapt their management strategies in order to secure food production and avoid crop failures. Investigating the potential for adaptation policies in agricultural systems requires accounting for their natural and human components, along with their reciprocal interactions. Yet this feedback is generally overlooked in the water resources systems literature. In this work, we contribute a novel modeling approach to study the coevolution of irrigated agriculture under changing climate, advancing the representation of the human component within agricultural systems by using normative meta-models to describe the behaviors of groups of farmers or institutional decisions. These behavioral models, validated against observational data, are then integrated into a coupled human-natural system simulation model to better represent both systems and their coevolution under future changing climate conditions, assuming the adoption of different policy adaptation options, such as cultivating less water demanding crops. The application to the pilot study of the Adda River basin in northern Italy shows that the dynamic coadaptation of water supply and demand allows farmers to avoid estimated potential losses of more than 10 M€/yr under projected climate changes, while unilateral adaptation of either the water supply or the demand are both demonstrated to be less effective. Results also show that the impact of the different policy options varies as function of drought intensity, with water demand adaptation outperforming water supply adaptation when drought conditions become more severe.

Economic assessment of climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in Odense, Denmark.

PubMed

Zhou, Q; Halsnæs, K; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, K

2012-01-01

Climate change is likely to influence the water cycle by changing the precipitation patterns, in some cases leading to increased occurrences of precipitation extremes. Urban landscapes are vulnerable to such changes due to the concentrated population and socio-economic values in cities. Feasible adaptation requires better flood risk quantification and assessment of appropriate adaptation actions in term of costs and benefits. This paper presents an economic assessment of three prevailing climate adaptation options for urban drainage design in a Danish case study, Odense. A risk-based evaluation framework is used to give detailed insights of the physical and economic feasibilities of each option. Estimation of marginal benefits of adaptation options are carried out through a step-by-step cost-benefit analysis. The results are aimed at providing important information for decision making on how best to adapt to urban pluvial flooding due to climate impacts in cities.

The economics of abrupt climate change.

PubMed

Perrings, Charles

2003-09-15

The US National Research Council defines abrupt climate change as a change of state that is sufficiently rapid and sufficiently widespread in its effects that economies are unprepared or incapable of adapting. This may be too restrictive a definition, but abrupt climate change does have implications for the choice between the main response options: mitigation (which reduces the risks of climate change) and adaptation (which reduces the costs of climate change). The paper argues that by (i) increasing the costs of change and the potential growth of consumption, and (ii) reducing the time to change, abrupt climate change favours mitigation over adaptation. Furthermore, because the implications of change are fundamentally uncertain and potentially very high, it favours a precautionary approach in which mitigation buys time for learning. Adaptation-oriented decision tools, such as scenario planning, are inappropriate in these circumstances. Hence learning implies the use of probabilistic models that include socioeconomic feedbacks.

Adaptive introgression as a resource for management and genetic conservation in a changing climate.

PubMed

Hamilton, Jill A; Miller, Joshua M

2016-02-01

Current rates of climate change require organisms to respond through migration, phenotypic plasticity, or genetic changes via adaptation. We focused on questions regarding species' and populations' ability to respond to climate change through adaptation. Specifically, the role adaptive introgression, movement of genetic material from the genome of 1 species into the genome of another through repeated interbreeding, may play in increasing species' ability to respond to a changing climate. Such interspecific gene flow may mediate extinction risk or consequences of limited adaptive potential that result from standing genetic variation and mutation alone, enabling a quicker demographic recovery in response to changing environments. Despite the near dismissal of the potential benefits of hybridization by conservation practitioners, we examined a number of case studies across different taxa that suggest gene flow between sympatric or parapatric sister species or within species that exhibit strong ecotypic differentiation may represent an underutilized management option to conserve evolutionary potential in a changing environment. This will be particularly true where advanced-generation hybrids exhibit adaptive traits outside the parental phenotypic range, a phenomenon known as transgressive segregation. The ideas presented in this essay are meant to provoke discussion regarding how we maintain evolutionary potential, the conservation value of natural hybrid zones, and consideration of their important role in adaptation to climate. © 2015 Society for Conservation Biology.

Assessing climate adaptation options and uncertainties for cereal systems in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Biasutti, M.; Lobell, D. B.

2015-12-01

The already fragile agriculture production system in West Africa faces further challenges in meeting food security in the coming decades, primarily due to a fast increasing population and risks of climate change. Successful adaptation of agriculture should not only benefit in the current climate but should also reduce negative (or enhance positive) impacts for climate change. Assessment of various possible adaptation options and their uncertainties provides key information for prioritizing adaptation investments. Here, based on the several robust aspects of climate projections in this region (i.e. temperature increases and rainfall pattern shifts), we use two well-validated crop models (i.e. APSIM and SARRA-H) and an ensemble of downscaled climate forcing to assess five possible and realistic adaptation options (late sowing, intensification, thermal time increase, water harvesting and increased resilience to heat stress) in West Africa for the staple crop production of sorghum. We adopt a new assessment framework to account for both the impacts of adaptation options in current climate and their ability to reduce impacts of future climate change, and also consider changes in both mean yield and its variability. Our results reveal that most proposed "adaptation options" are not more beneficial in the future than in the current climate, i.e. not really reduce the climate change impacts. Increased temperature resilience during grain number formation period is the main adaptation that emerges. We also find that changing from the traditional to modern cultivar, and later sowing in West Sahel appear to be robust adaptations.

43 CFR 46.145 - Using adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... implementation decisions. The NEPA analysis conducted in the context of an adaptive management approach should identify the range of management options that may be taken in response to the results of monitoring and should analyze the effects of such options. The environmental effects of any adaptive management strategy...

43 CFR 46.145 - Using adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... implementation decisions. The NEPA analysis conducted in the context of an adaptive management approach should identify the range of management options that may be taken in response to the results of monitoring and should analyze the effects of such options. The environmental effects of any adaptive management strategy...

Combining analytical frameworks to assess livelihood vulnerability to climate change and analyse adaptation options☆

PubMed Central

Reed, M.S.; Podesta, G.; Fazey, I.; Geeson, N.; Hessel, R.; Hubacek, K.; Letson, D.; Nainggolan, D.; Prell, C.; Rickenbach, M.G.; Ritsema, C.; Schwilch, G.; Stringer, L.C.; Thomas, A.D.

2013-01-01

Experts working on behalf of international development organisations need better tools to assist land managers in developing countries maintain their livelihoods, as climate change puts pressure on the ecosystem services that they depend upon. However, current understanding of livelihood vulnerability to climate change is based on a fractured and disparate set of theories and methods. This review therefore combines theoretical insights from sustainable livelihoods analysis with other analytical frameworks (including the ecosystem services framework, diffusion theory, social learning, adaptive management and transitions management) to assess the vulnerability of rural livelihoods to climate change. This integrated analytical framework helps diagnose vulnerability to climate change, whilst identifying and comparing adaptation options that could reduce vulnerability, following four broad steps: i) determine likely level of exposure to climate change, and how climate change might interact with existing stresses and other future drivers of change; ii) determine the sensitivity of stocks of capital assets and flows of ecosystem services to climate change; iii) identify factors influencing decisions to develop and/or adopt different adaptation strategies, based on innovation or the use/substitution of existing assets; and iv) identify and evaluate potential trade-offs between adaptation options. The paper concludes by identifying interdisciplinary research needs for assessing the vulnerability of livelihoods to climate change. PMID:25844020

Management for adaptation

Treesearch

John Innes; Linda A. Joyce; Seppo Kellomaki; Bastiaan Louman; Aynslie Ogden; Ian Thompson; Matthew Ayres; Chin Ong; Heru Santoso; Brent Sohngen; Anita Wreford

2009-01-01

This chapter develops a framework to explore examples of adaptation options that could be used to ensure that the ecosystem services provided by forests are maintained under future climates. The services are divided into broad areas within which managers can identify specific management goals for individual forests or landscapes. Adaptation options exist for the major...

Resolving Multi-Stakeholder Robustness Asymmetries in Coupled Agricultural and Urban Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yu; Giuliani, Matteo; Castelletti, Andrea; Reed, Patrick

2016-04-01

The evolving pressures from a changing climate and society are increasingly motivating decision support frameworks that consider the robustness of management actions across many possible futures. Focusing on robustness is helpful for investigating key vulnerabilities within current water systems and for identifying potential tradeoffs across candidate adaptation responses. To date, most robustness studies assume a social planner perspective by evaluating highly aggregated measures of system performance. This aggregate treatment of stakeholders does not explore the equity or intrinsic multi-stakeholder conflicts implicit to the system-wide measures of performance benefits and costs. The commonly present heterogeneity across complex management interests, however, may produce strong asymmetries for alternative adaptation options, designed to satisfy system-level targets. In this work, we advance traditional robustness decision frameworks by replacing the centralized social planner with a bottom-up, agent-based approach, where stakeholders are modeled as individuals, and represented as potentially self-interested agents. This agent-based model enables a more explicit exploration of the potential inequities and asymmetries in the distribution of the system-wide benefit. The approach is demonstrated by exploring the potential conflicts between urban flooding and agricultural production in the Lake Como system (Italy). Lake Como is a regulated lake that is operated to supply water to the downstream agricultural district (Muzza as the pilot study area in this work) composed of a set of farmers with heterogeneous characteristics in terms of water allocation, cropping patterns, and land properties. Supplying water to farmers increases the risk of floods along the lakeshore and therefore the system is operated based on the tradeoff between these two objectives. We generated an ensemble of co-varying climate and socio-economic conditions and evaluated the robustness of the current Lake Como system management as well as of possible adaptation options (e.g., improved irrigation efficiency or changes in the dam operating rules). Numerical results show that crops prices and costs are the main drivers of the simulated system failures when evaluated in terms of system-level expected profitability. Analysis conducted at the farmer-agent scale highlights alternatively that temperature and inflows are the critical drivers leading to failures. Finally, we show that the robustness of the considered adaptation options varies spatially, strongly influenced by stakeholders' context, the metrics used to define success, and the assumed preferences for reservoir operations in balancing urban flooding and agricultural productivity.

Assessment of Human Health Vulnerability to Climate Variability and Change in Cuba

PubMed Central

Bultó, Paulo Lázaro Ortíz; Rodríguez, Antonio Pérez; Valencia, Alina Rivero; Vega, Nicolás León; Gonzalez, Manuel Díaz; Carrera, Alina Pérez

2006-01-01

In this study we assessed the potential effects of climate variability and change on population health in Cuba. We describe the climate of Cuba as well as the patterns of climate-sensitive diseases of primary concern, particularly dengue fever. Analyses of the associations between climatic anomalies and disease patterns highlight current vulnerability to climate variability. We describe current adaptations, including the application of climate predictions to prevent disease outbreaks. Finally, we present the potential economic costs associated with future impacts due to climate change. The tools used in this study can be useful in the development of appropriate and effective adaptation options to address the increased climate variability associated with climate change. PMID:17185289

What to expect from teleconferencing.

PubMed

Johansen, R; Bullen, C

1984-01-01

Like other marvels of the electronic age, teleconferencing has been both oversold and underused. Though it has many potential uses, what managers know, or think they know, about it is generally based on misconceptions. Rather than relying only on vendors of teleconferencing, potential purchasers should first decide what their communication needs are, then choose the system that suits them best. These authors explain the new teleconferencing options and give guidelines for adapting them to a particular company.

A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

2013-12-01

Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more frequent replenishment with that of implementation cost. We determine that a business as usual scenario, where no adaptation is implemented, would lead to an average beach recession of 12.02 meters and a maximum beach recession of 33.23 meters during the period of 2010-2100. The best adaptation option modeled was a fixed replenishment of 5 meters every 20 years leading to 4 replenishment events with an average beach recession of 2.99 meters and a maximum beach recession of 15.02 meters during the period of 2010-2100. The presented simulations explicitly address the uncertainty of future impacts due to sea level rise and storm surge and show a range of options that could be considered by a local council to meet their policy objectives. The simulation runs provide managers the ability to consider the utility of various adaptation options and the timing and costs of implementation. Such information provides an evidence-based practice to decision-making and allows policy makers to transparently make decisions based on best estimates of modeled climate change.

Animal health aspects of adaptation to climate change: beating the heat and parasites in a warming Europe.

PubMed

Skuce, P J; Morgan, E R; van Dijk, J; Mitchell, M

2013-06-01

Weather patterns in northern European regions have changed noticeably over the past several decades, featuring warmer, wetter weather with more extreme events. The climate is projected to continue on this trajectory for the foreseeable future, even under the most modest warming scenarios. Such changes will have a significant impact on livestock farming, both directly through effects on the animals themselves, and indirectly through changing exposure to pests and pathogens. Adaptation options aimed at taking advantage of new opportunities and/or minimising the risks of negative impacts will, in themselves, have implications for animal health and welfare. In this review, we consider the potential consequences of future intensification of animal production, challenges associated with indoor and outdoor rearing of animals and aspects of animal transportation as key examples. We investigate the direct and indirect effects of climate change on the epidemiology of important livestock pathogens, with a particular focus on parasitic infections, and the likely animal health consequences associated with selected adaptation options. Finally, we attempt to identify key gaps in our knowledge and suggest future research priorities.

Climate Change Communication by a Research Institute: Experiences, Successes, and Challenges from a North European Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lyytimäki, Jari; Nygrén, Nina A.; Ala-Ketola, Ulla; Pellinen, Sirpa; Ruohomäki, Virpi; Inkinen, Aino

2013-01-01

Communicating about climate change is challenging not only because of the multidisciplinary and complex nature of the issue itself and multiple policy options related to mitigation and adaptation, but also because of the plenitude of potential communication methods coupled with limited resources for communication. This article explores climate…

Adapting to climate change at Olympic National Forest and Olympic National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Halofsky, Jessica E.; Peterson, David L.; O'Halloran, Kathy A.; Hoffman, Catherine H.

2011-01-01

Climate change presents a major challenge to natural resource managers both because of the magnitude of potential effects of climate change on ecosystem structure, processes, and function, and because of the uncertainty associated with those potential ecological effects. Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to counteract the negative effects of climate change. We began a climate change adaptation case study at Olympic National Forest (ONF) in partnership with Olympic National Park (ONP) to determine how to adapt management of federal lands on the Olympic Peninsula, Washington, to climate change. The case study began in the summer of 2008 and continued for 1½ years. The case study process involved science-based sensitivity assessments, review of management activities and constraints, and adaptation workshops in each of four focus areas (hydrology and roads, fish, vegetation, and wildlife). The process produced adaptation options for ONF and ONP, and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessment and science-management workshops in adapting to climate change. The case study process provides an example for other national forests, national parks, and natural resource agencies of how federal land management units can collaborate in the initial stages of climate change adaptation. Many of the ideas generated through this process can potentially be applied in other locations and in other agencies

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

A robust impact assessment that informs actionable climate change adaptation: future sunburn browning risk in apple.

PubMed

Webb, Leanne; Darbyshire, Rebecca; Erwin, Tim; Goodwin, Ian

2017-05-01

Climate change impact assessments are predominantly undertaken for the purpose of informing future adaptation decisions. Often, the complexity of the methodology hinders the actionable outcomes. The approach used here illustrates the importance of considering uncertainty in future climate projections, at the same time providing robust and simple to interpret information for decision-makers. By quantifying current and future exposure of Royal Gala apple to damaging temperature extremes across ten important pome fruit-growing locations in Australia, differences in impact to ripening fruit are highlighted, with, by the end of the twenty-first century, some locations maintaining no sunburn browning risk, while others potentially experiencing the risk for the majority of the January ripening period. Installation of over-tree netting can reduce the impact of sunburn browning. The benefits from employing this management option varied across the ten study locations. The two approaches explored to assist decision-makers assess this information (a) using sunburn browning risk analogues and (b) through identifying hypothetical sunburn browning risk thresholds, resulted in varying recommendations for introducing over-tree netting. These recommendations were location and future time period dependent with some sites showing no benefit for sunburn protection from nets even by the end of the twenty-first century and others already deriving benefits from employing this adaptation option. Potential best and worst cases of sunburn browning risk and its potential reduction through introduction of over-tree nets were explored. The range of results presented highlights the importance of addressing uncertainty in climate projections that result from different global climate models and possible future emission pathways.

ELICITED EXPERT PERCEPTIONS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISKS AND ADAPTATION IN AGRICULTURE AND FOOD PRODUCTION THROUGH MENTAL MODELS APPROACH

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suda, Eiko; Kubota, Hiromi; Baba, Kenshi; Hijioka, Yasuaki; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Hanasaki, Naota

Impacts of climate change have become obvious in agriculture and food production in Japan these days, and researches to adapt to their risks have been conducted as a key effort to cope with the climate change. Numerous scientific findings on climate change impacts have been presented so far; however, prospective risks to be adapted to and their management in the context of individual on-site situations have not been investigated in detail. The structure of climate change risks and their management vary depending on geographical and social features in the regions where the adaptation options should be applied; therefore, a practical adaptation strategy should consider actual on-site situations. This study intended to clarify climate change risks to be adapted to in the Japanese agricultural sector, and factors to be considered in adaptation options, for encouragement of decision-making on adaptation implementation in the field. Semi-structured individual interviews have been conducted with 9 multidisciplinary experts engaging in climate change impacts research in agricultural production, economics, engineering, policy, and so on. Based on the results of the interviews, and the latest literatures available for risk assessment and adaptation, an expert mental model including their perceptions which cover the process from climate change impacts assessment to adaptation has been developed. The prospective risks, adaptation options, and issues to be examined to progress the development of practical and effective adaptation options and to support individual or social decision-making, have been shown on the developed expert mental model. It is the basic information for developing social communication and stakeholders cooperations in climate change adaptation strategies in agriculture and food production in Japan.

Lessons and challenges from adaptation pathways planning applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haasnoot, M.; Lawrence, J.; Kwakkel, J. H.; Walker, W.; Timmermans, J.; Bloemen, P.; Thissen, W.

2015-12-01

Planning for adaptation to dynamic risks (e.g., because of climate change) is a critical need. The concept of 'adaptive policies' is receiving increasing attention as a way of performing strategic planning that is able to address many of the inherent challenges of uncertainty and dynamic change. Several approaches for developing adaptive policies are available in the literature. One approach, for which several applications already exist, is Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). Pathway maps enable policy analysts, decision makers, and stakeholders to recognize potential 'locked-in' situations and to assess the flexibility, robustness, and efficacy of decision alternatives. Most of the applications of DAPP have been in deltas, coastal cities, or floodplains, often within the context of climate change adaptation. In this talk, we describe the DAPP approach and present a framework for designing signposts as adaptation signals, together with an illustrative application for the Rhine River in the Netherlands. We also draw lessons and challenges from pathways applications that differ in environment, culture, and institutional context. For example, the Dutch Delta Programme has used pathways to identify short-term decisions and long-term policy options. In Bangladesh, an application is in its early phase. Steps before generating pathways - such as long- term thinking in multiple possible futures and acknowledging uncertainties - are already a big challenge there. In New Zealand, the 'Sustainable Delta Game' has been used as the catalyst for pathways thinking by two local councils. This has led to its application in decision making for coastal and flood risk management and economic analysis of policy options.

Ecosystem service provision in a changing Europe: adapting to the impacts of combined climate and socio-economic change.

PubMed

Dunford, Robert W; Smith, Alison C; Harrison, Paula A; Hanganu, Diana

Future patterns of European ecosystem services provision are likely to vary significantly as a result of climatic and socio-economic change and the implementation of adaptation strategies. However, there is little research in mapping future ecosystem services and no integrated assessment approach to map the combined impacts of these drivers. Map changing patterns in ecosystem services for different European futures and (a) identify the role of driving forces; (b) explore the potential influence of different adaptation options. The CLIMSAVE integrated assessment platform is used to map spatial patterns in services (food, water and timber provision, atmospheric regulation, biodiversity existence/bequest, landscape experience and land use diversity) for a number of combined climatic and socio-economic scenarios. Eight adaptation strategies are explored within each scenario. Future service provision (particularly water provision) will be significantly impacted by climate change. Socio-economic changes shift patterns of service provision: more dystopian societies focus on food provision at the expense of other services. Adaptation options offer significant opportunities, but may necessitate trade-offs between services, particularly between agriculture- and forestry-related services. Unavoidable trade-offs between regions (particularly South-North) are also identified in some scenarios. Coordinating adaptation across regions and sectors will be essential to ensure that all needs are met: a factor that will become increasingly pressing under dystopian futures where inter-regional cooperation breaks down. Integrated assessment enables exploration of interactions and trade-offs between ecosystem services, highlighting the importance of taking account of complex cross-sectoral interactions under different future scenarios of planning adaptation responses.

Table of Policy Options for Smart Growth Fixes for Climate Adaptation and Resilience

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Sortable table of policy options discussed in the publication Smart Growth Fixes for Climate Adaptation and Resilience, which can help local governments prepare for climate change while gaining other environmental, economic, health, and social benefits

The potential role for management of U.S. public lands in greenhouse gas mitigation and climate policy.

PubMed

Olander, Lydia P; Cooley, David M; Galik, Christopher S

2012-03-01

Management of forests, rangelands, and wetlands on public lands, including the restoration of degraded lands, has the potential to increase carbon sequestration or reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions beyond what is occurring today. In this paper we discuss several policy options for increasing GHG mitigation on public lands. These range from an extension of current policy by generating supplemental mitigation on public lands in an effort to meet national emissions reduction goals, to full participation in an offsets market by allowing GHG mitigation on public lands to be sold as offsets either by the overseeing agency or by private contractors. To help place these policy options in context, we briefly review the literature on GHG mitigation and public lands to examine the potential for enhanced mitigation on federal and state public lands in the United States. This potential will be tempered by consideration of the tradeoffs with other uses of public lands, the needs for climate change adaptation, and the effects on other ecosystem services.

Adaptive [theta]-methods for pricing American options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khaliq, Abdul Q. M.; Voss, David A.; Kazmi, Kamran

2008-12-01

We develop adaptive [theta]-methods for solving the Black-Scholes PDE for American options. By adding a small, continuous term, the Black-Scholes PDE becomes an advection-diffusion-reaction equation on a fixed spatial domain. Standard implementation of [theta]-methods would require a Newton-type iterative procedure at each time step thereby increasing the computational complexity of the methods. Our linearly implicit approach avoids such complications. We establish a general framework under which [theta]-methods satisfy a discrete version of the positivity constraint characteristic of American options, and numerically demonstrate the sensitivity of the constraint. The positivity results are established for the single-asset and independent two-asset models. In addition, we have incorporated and analyzed an adaptive time-step control strategy to increase the computational efficiency. Numerical experiments are presented for one- and two-asset American options, using adaptive exponential splitting for two-asset problems. The approach is compared with an iterative solution of the two-asset problem in terms of computational efficiency.

Preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Baron, Jill S.; Griffith, Brad; Joyce, Linda A.; Kareiva, Peter; Keller, Brian D.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Peterson, Charles H.; Scott, J. Michael; Julius, Susan Herrod; West, Jordan M.

2008-01-01

Climate variables are key determinants of geographic distributions and biophysical characteristics of ecosystems, communities, and species. Climate change is therefore affecting many species attributes, ecological interactions, and ecosystem processes. Because changes in the climate system will continue into the future regardless of emissions mitigation, strategies for protecting climate-sensitive ecosystems through management will be increasingly important. While there will always be uncertainties associated with the future path of climate change, the response of ecosystems to climate impacts, and the effects of management, it is both possible and essential for adaptation to proceed using the best available science. This report provides a preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources in the United States. The term “adaptation” in this document refers to adjustments in human social systems (e.g., management) in response to climate stimuli and their effects. Since management always occurs in the context of desired ecosystem conditions or natural resource management goals, it is instructive to examine particular goals and processes used by different organizations to fulfill their objectives. Such an examination allows for discussion of specific adaptation options as well as potential barriers and opportunities for implementation. Using this approach, this report presents a series of chapters on the following selected management systems: National Forests, National Parks, National Wildlife Refuges, Wild and Scenic Rivers, National Estuaries, and Marine Protected Areas. For these chapters, the authors draw on the literature, their own expert opinion, and expert workshops composed of resource management scientists and representatives of managing agencies. The information drawn from across these chapters is then analyzed to develop the key synthetic messages presented below.

Progress in modelling agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change.

PubMed

Rötter, R P; Hoffmann, M P; Koch, M; Müller, C

2018-06-01

Modelling is a key tool to explore agricultural impacts of and adaptations to climate change. Here we report recent progress made especially referring to the large project initiatives MACSUR and AgMIP; in particular, in modelling potential crop impacts from field to global using multi-model ensembles. We identify two main fields where further progress is necessary: a more mechanistic understanding of climate impacts and management options for adaptation and mitigation; and focusing on cropping systems and integrative multi-scale assessments instead of single season and crops, especially in complex tropical and neglected but important cropping systems. Stronger linking of experimentation with statistical and eco-physiological crop modelling could facilitate the necessary methodological advances. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

On the maintenance of genetic variation and adaptation to environmental change: considerations from population genomics in fishes.

PubMed

Bernatchez, L

2016-12-01

The first goal of this paper was to overview modern approaches to local adaptation, with a focus on the use of population genomics data to detect signals of natural selection in fishes. Several mechanisms are discussed that may enhance the maintenance of genetic variation and evolutionary potential, which have been overlooked and should be considered in future theoretical development and predictive models: the prevalence of soft sweeps, polygenic basis of adaptation, balancing selection and transient polymorphisms, parallel evolution, as well as epigenetic variation. Research on fish population genomics has provided ample evidence for local adaptation at the genome level. Pervasive adaptive evolution, however, seems to almost never involve the fixation of beneficial alleles. Instead, adaptation apparently proceeds most commonly by soft sweeps entailing shifts in frequencies of alleles being shared between differentially adapted populations. One obvious factor contributing to the maintenance of standing genetic variation in the face of selective pressures is that adaptive phenotypic traits are most often highly polygenic, and consequently the response to selection should derive mostly from allelic co-variances among causative loci rather than pronounced allele frequency changes. Balancing selection in its various forms may also play an important role in maintaining adaptive genetic variation and the evolutionary potential of species to cope with environmental change. A large body of literature on fishes also shows that repeated evolution of adaptive phenotypes is a ubiquitous evolutionary phenomenon that seems to occur most often via different genetic solutions, further adding to the potential options of species to cope with a changing environment. Moreover, a paradox is emerging from recent fish studies whereby populations of highly reduced effective population sizes and impoverished genetic diversity can apparently retain their adaptive potential in some circumstances. Although more empirical support is needed, several recent studies suggest that epigenetic variation could account for this apparent paradox. Therefore, epigenetic variation should be fully integrated with considerations pertaining to role of soft sweeps, polygenic and balancing selection, as well as repeated adaptation involving different genetic basis towards improving models predicting the evolutionary potential of species to cope with a changing world. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Land use and climate change: A global perspective on mitigation options: discussion

Treesearch

R. J. Alig

2010-01-01

Land use change can play a very significant role in climate change mitigation and adaptation, as part of efficient portfolios of many land-related activities. Questions involving forestry’s and agriculture’s potential contributions to climate change mitigation are framed within a national context of increased demands for cropland, forage, and wood products to help feed...

Modeling the influence of climate change on watershed systems: Adaptation through targeted practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dudula, John; Randhir, Timothy O.

2016-10-01

Climate change may influence hydrologic processes of watersheds (IPCC, 2013) and increased runoff may cause flooding, eroded stream banks, widening of stream channels, increased pollutant loading, and consequently impairment of aquatic life. The goal of this study was to quantify the potential impacts of climate change on watershed hydrologic processes and to evaluate scale and effectiveness of management practices for adaptation. We simulate baseline watershed conditions using the Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) simulation model to examine the possible effects of changing climate on watershed processes. We also simulate the effects of adaptation and mitigation through specific best management strategies for various climatic scenarios. With continuing low-flow conditions and vulnerability to climate change, the Ipswich watershed is the focus of this study. We quantify fluxes in runoff, evapotranspiration, infiltration, sediment load, and nutrient concentrations under baseline and climate change scenarios (near and far future). We model adaptation options for mitigating climate effects on watershed processes using bioretention/raingarden Best Management Practices (BMPs). It was observed that climate change has a significant impact on watershed runoff and carefully designed and maintained BMPs at subwatershed scale can be effective in mitigating some of the problems related to stormwater runoff. Policy options include implementation of BMPs through education and incentives for scale-dependent and site specific bioretention units/raingardens to increase the resilience of the watershed system to current and future climate change.

Adapting mudharabah principle in Islamic option

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suhaimi, Siti Noor Aini binti; Salleh, Hassilah binti

2013-04-01

Most of the options today use the Black-Scholes model as the basis in valuing their price. This conventional model involves the elements that are strictly prohibited in Islam namely riba, gharar and maisir. Hence, this paper introduces a new mathematical model that has been adapted with mudharabah principle to replace the Black-Scholes model. This new model which is more compatible with Islamic values produces a new Islamic option which avoids any form of oppression and injustice to all parties involved.

Taking action against ocean acidification: a review of management and policy options.

PubMed

Billé, Raphaël; Kelly, Ryan; Biastoch, Arne; Harrould-Kolieb, Ellycia; Herr, Dorothée; Joos, Fortunat; Kroeker, Kristy; Laffoley, Dan; Oschlies, Andreas; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre

2013-10-01

Ocean acidification has emerged over the last two decades as one of the largest threats to marine organisms and ecosystems. However, most research efforts on ocean acidification have so far neglected management and related policy issues to focus instead on understanding its ecological and biogeochemical implications. This shortfall is addressed here with a systematic, international and critical review of management and policy options. In particular, we investigate the assumption that fighting acidification is mainly, but not only, about reducing CO2 emissions, and explore the leeway that this emerging problem may open in old environmental issues. We review nine types of management responses, initially grouped under four categories: preventing ocean acidification; strengthening ecosystem resilience; adapting human activities; and repairing damages. Connecting and comparing options leads to classifying them, in a qualitative way, according to their potential and feasibility. While reducing CO2 emissions is confirmed as the key action that must be taken against acidification, some of the other options appear to have the potential to buy time, e.g. by relieving the pressure of other stressors, and help marine life face unavoidable acidification. Although the existing legal basis to take action shows few gaps, policy challenges are significant: tackling them will mean succeeding in various areas of environmental management where we failed to a large extent so far.

Taking Action Against Ocean Acidification: A Review of Management and Policy Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Billé, Raphaël; Kelly, Ryan; Biastoch, Arne; Harrould-Kolieb, Ellycia; Herr, Dorothée; Joos, Fortunat; Kroeker, Kristy; Laffoley, Dan; Oschlies, Andreas; Gattuso, Jean-Pierre

2013-10-01

Ocean acidification has emerged over the last two decades as one of the largest threats to marine organisms and ecosystems. However, most research efforts on ocean acidification have so far neglected management and related policy issues to focus instead on understanding its ecological and biogeochemical implications. This shortfall is addressed here with a systematic, international and critical review of management and policy options. In particular, we investigate the assumption that fighting acidification is mainly, but not only, about reducing CO2 emissions, and explore the leeway that this emerging problem may open in old environmental issues. We review nine types of management responses, initially grouped under four categories: preventing ocean acidification; strengthening ecosystem resilience; adapting human activities; and repairing damages. Connecting and comparing options leads to classifying them, in a qualitative way, according to their potential and feasibility. While reducing CO2 emissions is confirmed as the key action that must be taken against acidification, some of the other options appear to have the potential to buy time, e.g. by relieving the pressure of other stressors, and help marine life face unavoidable acidification. Although the existing legal basis to take action shows few gaps, policy challenges are significant: tackling them will mean succeeding in various areas of environmental management where we failed to a large extent so far.

Preliminary Review of Adaption Options for Climate Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources (Sap 4.4) (External Review Draft)

EPA Science Inventory

EPA is announcing the final (third) review draft report entitled Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.4: Preliminary Review of Adaptation Options for Climate Sensitive Ecosystems and Resources. This Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.4 (SAP 4.4) analyzes information on the ...

Food security and climate change: on the potential to adapt global crop production by active selection to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide

PubMed Central

Ziska, Lewis H.; Bunce, James A.; Shimono, Hiroyuki; Gealy, David R.; Baker, Jeffrey T.; Newton, Paul C. D.; Reynolds, Matthew P.; Jagadish, Krishna S. V.; Zhu, Chunwu; Howden, Mark; Wilson, Lloyd T.

2012-01-01

Agricultural production is under increasing pressure by global anthropogenic changes, including rising population, diversion of cereals to biofuels, increased protein demands and climatic extremes. Because of the immediate and dynamic nature of these changes, adaptation measures are urgently needed to ensure both the stability and continued increase of the global food supply. Although potential adaption options often consider regional or sectoral variations of existing risk management (e.g. earlier planting dates, choice of crop), there may be a global-centric strategy for increasing productivity. In spite of the recognition that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) is an essential plant resource that has increased globally by approximately 25 per cent since 1959, efforts to increase the biological conversion of atmospheric CO2 to stimulate seed yield through crop selection is not generally recognized as an effective adaptation measure. In this review, we challenge that viewpoint through an assessment of existing studies on CO2 and intraspecific variability to illustrate the potential biological basis for differential plant response among crop lines and demonstrate that while technical hurdles remain, active selection and breeding for CO2 responsiveness among cereal varieties may provide one of the simplest and direct strategies for increasing global yields and maintaining food security with anthropogenic change. PMID:22874755

Food security and climate change: on the potential to adapt global crop production by active selection to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide.

PubMed

Ziska, Lewis H; Bunce, James A; Shimono, Hiroyuki; Gealy, David R; Baker, Jeffrey T; Newton, Paul C D; Reynolds, Matthew P; Jagadish, Krishna S V; Zhu, Chunwu; Howden, Mark; Wilson, Lloyd T

2012-10-22

Agricultural production is under increasing pressure by global anthropogenic changes, including rising population, diversion of cereals to biofuels, increased protein demands and climatic extremes. Because of the immediate and dynamic nature of these changes, adaptation measures are urgently needed to ensure both the stability and continued increase of the global food supply. Although potential adaption options often consider regional or sectoral variations of existing risk management (e.g. earlier planting dates, choice of crop), there may be a global-centric strategy for increasing productivity. In spite of the recognition that atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO(2)) is an essential plant resource that has increased globally by approximately 25 per cent since 1959, efforts to increase the biological conversion of atmospheric CO(2) to stimulate seed yield through crop selection is not generally recognized as an effective adaptation measure. In this review, we challenge that viewpoint through an assessment of existing studies on CO(2) and intraspecific variability to illustrate the potential biological basis for differential plant response among crop lines and demonstrate that while technical hurdles remain, active selection and breeding for CO(2) responsiveness among cereal varieties may provide one of the simplest and direct strategies for increasing global yields and maintaining food security with anthropogenic change.

Retroviruses facilitate the rapid evolution of the mammalian placenta

PubMed Central

Chuong, Edward B.

2015-01-01

The mammalian placenta exhibits elevated expression of endogenous retroviruses (ERVs), but the evolutionary significance of this feature remains unclear. I propose that ERV-mediated regulatory evolution was, and continues to be, an important mechanism underlying the evolution of placenta development. Many recent studies have focused on the co-option of ERV-derived genes for specific functional adaptations in the placenta. However, the co-option of ERV-derived regulatory elements has the potential to co-opt entire gene regulatory networks, which, I argue, would facilitate relatively rapid developmental evolution of the placenta. I suggest a model in which an ancient retroviral infection led to the establishment of the ancestral placental developmental gene network through the co-option of ERV-derived regulatory elements. Consequently, placenta development would require elevated tolerance to ERV activity, which in turn would expose a continuous stream of novel ERV mutations that may have catalyzed the developmental diversification of the mammalian placenta. PMID:23873343

A case study for online plan adaptation using helical tomotherapy

PubMed Central

Neilson, Christopher E.; Yartsev, Slav

2012-01-01

Helical tomotherapy's ability to provide daily megavoltage (MV) computed tomography (CT) images for patient set-up verification allows for the creation of adapted plans. As plans become more complex by introducing sharper dose gradients in an effort to spare healthy tissue, inter-fraction changes of organ position with respect to plan become a limiting factor in the correct dose delivery to the target. Tomotherapy's planned adaptive option provides the possibility to evaluate the dose distribution for each fraction and subsequently adapt the original plan to the current anatomy. In this study, 30 adapted plans were created using new contours based on the daily MVCT studies of a bladder cancer patient with considerable anatomical variations. Dose to the rectum and two planning target volumes (PTVs) were compared between the original plan, the dose that was actually delivered to the patient, and the theoretical dose from the 30 adapted plans. The adaptation simulation displayed a lower dose to 35% and 50% of the rectum compared to no adaptation at all, while maintaining an equivalent dose to the PTVs. Although online adaptation is currently too time-consuming, it has the potential to improve the effectiveness of radiotherapy. PMID:22557799

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Marathe, Aniruddha P.; Harris, Rachel A.; Lowenthal, David K.

The use of clouds to execute high-performance computing (HPC) applications has greatly increased recently. Clouds provide several potential advantages over traditional supercomputers and in-house clusters. The most popular cloud is currently Amazon EC2, which provides fixed-cost and variable-cost, auction-based options. The auction market trades lower cost for potential interruptions that necessitate checkpointing; if the market price exceeds the bid price, a node is taken away from the user without warning. We explore techniques to maximize performance per dollar given a time constraint within which an application must complete. Specifically, we design and implement multiple techniques to reduce expected cost bymore » exploiting redundancy in the EC2 auction market. We then design an adaptive algorithm that selects a scheduling algorithm and determines the bid price. We show that our adaptive algorithm executes programs up to seven times cheaper than using the on-demand market and up to 44 percent cheaper than the best non-redundant, auction-market algorithm. We extend our adaptive algorithm to incorporate application scalability characteristics for further cost savings. In conclusion, we show that the adaptive algorithm informed with scalability characteristics of applications achieves up to 56 percent cost savings compared to the expected cost for the base adaptive algorithm run at a fixed, user-defined scale.« less

Adaptive Flood Risk Management Under Climate Change Uncertainty Using Real Options and Optimization.

PubMed

Woodward, Michelle; Kapelan, Zoran; Gouldby, Ben

2014-01-01

It is well recognized that adaptive and flexible flood risk strategies are required to account for future uncertainties. Development of such strategies is, however, a challenge. Climate change alone is a significant complication, but, in addition, complexities exist trying to identify the most appropriate set of mitigation measures, or interventions. There are a range of economic and environmental performance measures that require consideration, and the spatial and temporal aspects of evaluating the performance of these is complex. All these elements pose severe difficulties to decisionmakers. This article describes a decision support methodology that has the capability to assess the most appropriate set of interventions to make in a flood system and the opportune time to make these interventions, given the future uncertainties. The flood risk strategies have been explicitly designed to allow for flexible adaptive measures by capturing the concepts of real options and multiobjective optimization to evaluate potential flood risk management opportunities. A state-of-the-art flood risk analysis tool is employed to evaluate the risk associated to each strategy over future points in time and a multiobjective genetic algorithm is utilized to search for the optimal adaptive strategies. The modeling system has been applied to a reach on the Thames Estuary (London, England), and initial results show the inclusion of flexibility is advantageous, while the outputs provide decisionmakers with supplementary knowledge that previously has not been considered. © 2013 HR Wallingford Ltd.

Within-host evolution of bacterial pathogens

PubMed Central

Didelot, Xavier; Walker, A. Sarah; Peto, Tim E.; Crook, Derrick W.; Wilson, Daniel J.

2016-01-01

Whole genome sequencing has opened the way to investigating the dynamics and genomic evolution of bacterial pathogens during colonization and infection of humans. The application of this technology to the longitudinal study of adaptation in the infected host — in particular, the evolution of drug resistance and host adaptation in patients chronically infected with opportunistic pathogens — has revealed remarkable patterns of convergent evolution, pointing to an inherent repeatability of evolution. In this Review, we describe how these studies have advanced our understanding of the mechanisms and principles of within-host genome evolution, and we consider the consequences of findings such as a potent adaptive potential for pathogenicity. Finally, we discuss the possibility that genomics may be used in the future to predict the clinical progression of bacterial infections, and to suggest the best treatment option. PMID:26806595

Within-host evolution of bacterial pathogens.

PubMed

Didelot, Xavier; Walker, A Sarah; Peto, Tim E; Crook, Derrick W; Wilson, Daniel J

2016-03-01

Whole-genome sequencing has opened the way for investigating the dynamics and genomic evolution of bacterial pathogens during the colonization and infection of humans. The application of this technology to the longitudinal study of adaptation in an infected host--in particular, the evolution of drug resistance and host adaptation in patients who are chronically infected with opportunistic pathogens--has revealed remarkable patterns of convergent evolution, suggestive of an inherent repeatability of evolution. In this Review, we describe how these studies have advanced our understanding of the mechanisms and principles of within-host genome evolution, and we consider the consequences of findings such as a potent adaptive potential for pathogenicity. Finally, we discuss the possibility that genomics may be used in the future to predict the clinical progression of bacterial infections and to suggest the best option for treatment.

Whole-farm models to quantify greenhouse gas emissions and their potential use for linking climate change mitigation and adaptation in temperate grassland ruminant-based farming systems.

PubMed

Del Prado, A; Crosson, P; Olesen, J E; Rotz, C A

2013-06-01

The farm level is the most appropriate scale for evaluating options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, because the farm represents the unit at which management decisions in livestock production are made. To date, a number of whole farm modelling approaches have been developed to quantify GHG emissions and explore climate change mitigation strategies for livestock systems. This paper analyses the limitations and strengths of the different existing approaches for modelling GHG mitigation by considering basic model structures, approaches for simulating GHG emissions from various farm components and the sensitivity of GHG outputs and mitigation measures to different approaches. Potential challenges for linking existing models with the simulation of impacts and adaptation measures under climate change are explored along with a brief discussion of the effects on other ecosystem services.

Complex adaptive systems and game theory: An unlikely union

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hadzikadic, M.; Carmichael, T.; Curtin, C.

2010-01-01

A Complex Adaptive System is a collection of autonomous, heterogeneous agents, whose behavior is defined with a limited number of rules. A Game Theory is a mathematical construct that assumes a small number of rational players who have a limited number of actions or strategies available to them. The CAS method has the potential to alleviate some of the shortcomings of GT. On the other hand, CAS researchers are always looking for a realistic way to define interactions among agents. GT offers an attractive option for defining the rules of such interactions in a way that is both potentially consistent with observed real-world behavior and subject to mathematical interpretation. This article reports on the results of an effort to build a CAS system that utilizes GT for determining the actions of individual agents. ?? 2009 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Complexity, 16,24-42, 2010.

Coupling Adaptation Tipping Points and Engineering Options: New Insights for Resilient Water Infrastructure Replacement Planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smet, K.; de Neufville, R.; van der Vlist, M.

2017-12-01

This work presents an innovative approach for replacement planning for aging water infrastructure given uncertain future conditions. We draw upon two existing methodologies to develop an integrated long-term replacement planning framework. We first expand the concept of Adaptation Tipping Points to generate long-term planning timelines that incorporate drivers of investment related to both internal structural processes as well as changes in external operating conditions. Then, we use Engineering Options to explore different actions taken at key moments in this timeline. Contrasting to the traditionally more static approach to infrastructure design, designing the next generation of infrastructure so it can be changed incrementally is a promising method to safeguard current investments given future uncertainty. This up-front inclusion of structural options in the system actively facilitates future adaptation, transforming uncertainty management in infrastructure planning from reactive to more proactive. A two-part model underpins this approach. A simulation model generates diverse future conditions, allowing development of timelines of intervention moments in the structure's life. This feeds into an economic model, evaluating the lifetime performance of different replacement strategies, making explicit the value of different designs and their flexibility. A proof of concept study demonstrates this approach for a pumping station. The strategic planning timelines for this structure demonstrate that moments when capital interventions become necessary due to reduced functionality from structural degradation or changed operating conditions are widely spread over the structure's life. The disparate timing of these necessary interventions supports an incremental, adaptive mindset when considering end-of-life and replacement decisions. The analysis then explores different replacement decisions, varying the size and specific options included in the proposed new structure. Results show that incremental adaptive designs and incorporating options can improve economic performance, as compared to traditional, "build it once & build it big" designs. The benefit from incorporating flexibility varies with structural functionality, future conditions and the specific options examined.

LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

PubMed

Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

2013-09-01

Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously developed, updated and used in different research projects and as a learning and knowledge-sharing tool for students. The main objective of LandCaRe DSS is to provide information on the complex long-term impacts of climate change and on potential management options for adaptation by answering "what-if" type questions. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

State Wildlife Action Plans as Tools for Adapting to a Continuously Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Metivier, D. W.; Yocum, H.; Ray, A. J.

2015-12-01

Public land management plans are potentially powerful policies for building sustainability and adaptive capacity. Land managers are recognizing the need to respond to numerous climate change impacts on natural and human systems. For the first time, in 2015, the federal government required each state to incorporate climate change into their State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAP) as a condition for funding. As important land management tools, SWAPs have the potential to guide state agencies in shaping and implementing practices for climate change adaptation. Intended to be revised every ten years, SWAPs can change as conditions and understanding of climate change evolves. This study asks what practices are states using to integrate climate change, and how does this vary between states? To answer this question, we conducted a broad analysis among seven states (CO, MT, NE, ND, SD, UT, WY) and a more in-depth analysis of four states (CO, ND, SD, WY). We use seven key factors that represent best practices for incorporating climate change identified in the literature. These best practices are species prioritization, key habitats, threats, monitoring, partnerships and participation, identification of management options, and implementation of management options. The in-depth analysis focuses on how states are using climate change information for specific habitats addressed in the plans. We find that states are integrating climate change in many different ways, showing varying degrees of sophistication and preparedness. We summarize different practices and highlight opportunities to improve the effectiveness of plans through: communication tools across state lines and stakeholders, explicit targeting of key habitats, enforcement and monitoring progress and success, and conducting vulnerability analyses that incorporate topics beyond climate and include other drivers, trajectories, and implications of historic and future land-use change.

In Brief: Geoengineering draft statement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

2009-04-01

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) has prepared a draft policy statement on geoengineering the climate system, which the AMS Council is considering for approval. The statement notes, “Geoengineering will not substitute for either aggressive mitigation or proactive adaptation. It could contribute to a comprehensive risk management strategy to slow climate change and alleviate its negative impacts, but the potential for adverse and unintended consequences implies a need for adequate research, appropriate regulation, and transparent consideration.” The statement, if adopted, indicates that AMS recommends enhanced research on the scientific and technological potential for geoengineering the climate system; additional study of the historical, ethical, legal, political, and societal aspects of the geoengineering issues; and the development and analysis of policy options to promote transparency and international cooperation in exploring geoengineering options along with restrictions on reckless efforts to manipulate the climate system. AMS is accepting comments on the draft statement until 23 April. For more information, visit http://ametsoc.org/policy/draftstatements/index.html#draft.

Climate change and mosquito-borne diseases in China: a review.

PubMed

Bai, Li; Morton, Lindsay Carol; Liu, Qiyong

2013-03-09

China has experienced noticeable changes in climate over the past 100 years and the potential impact climate change has on transmission of mosquito-borne infectious diseases poses a risk to Chinese populations. The aims of this paper are to summarize what is known about the impact of climate change on the incidence and prevalence of malaria, dengue fever and Japanese encephalitis in China and to provide important information and direction for adaptation policy making. Fifty-five papers met the inclusion criteria for this study. Examination of these studies indicates that variability in temperature, precipitation, wind, and extreme weather events is linked to transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in some regions of China. However, study findings are inconsistent across geographical locations and this requires strengthening current evidence for timely development of adaptive options. After synthesis of available information we make several key adaptation recommendations including: improving current surveillance and monitoring systems; concentrating adaptation strategies and policies on vulnerable communities; strengthening adaptive capacity of public health systems; developing multidisciplinary approaches sustained by an new mechanism of inter-sectional coordination; and increasing awareness and mobilization of the general public.

Climate change and mosquito-borne diseases in China: a review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

China has experienced noticeable changes in climate over the past 100 years and the potential impact climate change has on transmission of mosquito-borne infectious diseases poses a risk to Chinese populations. The aims of this paper are to summarize what is known about the impact of climate change on the incidence and prevalence of malaria, dengue fever and Japanese encephalitis in China and to provide important information and direction for adaptation policy making. Fifty-five papers met the inclusion criteria for this study. Examination of these studies indicates that variability in temperature, precipitation, wind, and extreme weather events is linked to transmission of mosquito-borne diseases in some regions of China. However, study findings are inconsistent across geographical locations and this requires strengthening current evidence for timely development of adaptive options. After synthesis of available information we make several key adaptation recommendations including: improving current surveillance and monitoring systems; concentrating adaptation strategies and policies on vulnerable communities; strengthening adaptive capacity of public health systems; developing multidisciplinary approaches sustained by an new mechanism of inter-sectional coordination; and increasing awareness and mobilization of the general public. PMID:23497420

Exploiting Redundancy and Application Scalability for Cost-Effective, Time-Constrained Execution of HPC Applications on Amazon EC2

DOE PAGES

Marathe, Aniruddha P.; Harris, Rachel A.; Lowenthal, David K.; ...

2015-12-17

The use of clouds to execute high-performance computing (HPC) applications has greatly increased recently. Clouds provide several potential advantages over traditional supercomputers and in-house clusters. The most popular cloud is currently Amazon EC2, which provides fixed-cost and variable-cost, auction-based options. The auction market trades lower cost for potential interruptions that necessitate checkpointing; if the market price exceeds the bid price, a node is taken away from the user without warning. We explore techniques to maximize performance per dollar given a time constraint within which an application must complete. Specifically, we design and implement multiple techniques to reduce expected cost bymore » exploiting redundancy in the EC2 auction market. We then design an adaptive algorithm that selects a scheduling algorithm and determines the bid price. We show that our adaptive algorithm executes programs up to seven times cheaper than using the on-demand market and up to 44 percent cheaper than the best non-redundant, auction-market algorithm. We extend our adaptive algorithm to incorporate application scalability characteristics for further cost savings. In conclusion, we show that the adaptive algorithm informed with scalability characteristics of applications achieves up to 56 percent cost savings compared to the expected cost for the base adaptive algorithm run at a fixed, user-defined scale.« less

Real options analysis for land use management: Methods, application, and implications for policy.

PubMed

Regan, Courtney M; Bryan, Brett A; Connor, Jeffery D; Meyer, Wayne S; Ostendorf, Bertram; Zhu, Zili; Bao, Chenming

2015-09-15

Discounted cash flow analysis, including net present value is an established way to value land use and management investments which accounts for the time-value of money. However, it provides a static view and assumes passive commitment to an investment strategy when real world land use and management investment decisions are characterised by uncertainty, irreversibility, change, and adaptation. Real options analysis has been proposed as a better valuation method under uncertainty and where the opportunity exists to delay investment decisions, pending more information. We briefly review the use of discounted cash flow methods in land use and management and discuss their benefits and limitations. We then provide an overview of real options analysis, describe the main analytical methods, and summarize its application to land use investment decisions. Real options analysis is largely underutilized in evaluating land use decisions, despite uncertainty in policy and economic drivers, the irreversibility and sunk costs involved. New simulation methods offer the potential for overcoming current technical challenges to implementation as demonstrated with a real options simulation model used to evaluate an agricultural land use decision in South Australia. We conclude that considering option values in future policy design will provide a more realistic assessment of landholder investment decision making and provide insights for improved policy performance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Diversity and adaptation of shelters in transitional settlements for IDPs in Afghanistan.

PubMed

Ashmore, Joseph; Babister, Elizabeth; Corsellis, Tom; Fowler, Jon; Kelman, Ilan; McRobie, Allan; Manfield, Peter; Spence, Robin; Vitale, Antonella; Battilana, Rachel; Crawford, Kate

2003-12-01

The diversity of shelters used in transitional settlements for internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Herat, Afghanistan is described. The information is based on a field survey undertaken in March 2002 and highlights the adaptation techniques, which IDPs undertake to improve any provided shelter. Potential areas for improvement are indicated; for example, the possibility for using insulated, demountable liners to prevent cold-related deaths without sacrificing shelter flexibility along with the likely need for better agency coordination of the shelter responses they provide. The wider context in which the technical recommendations would be implemented must also be considered. Such issues include agency resources, political impediments to providing the desired option, and the preference of many IDPs that the best shelter would be their home.

Adapting land management to emergence of novel site conditions on the continental lowlands of SE Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mátyás, Csaba; Berki, Imre; Bidlo, Andras; Czimber, Kornel.; Gálos, Borbala; Gribovszki, Zoltan; Lakatos, Ferenc; Borovics, Attila; Csóka, György; Führer, Ernő; Illés, Gábor; Rasztovits, Ervin; Somogyi, Zoltán; Bartholy, Judit

2017-04-01

The rapid progress of site potential change, caused by the shift of climate zones is a serious problem of lowland management in Southeast Europe. In forestry, the resilience potential of main, climate-dependent tree species (e.g. spruce, beech, sessile oak) and ecosystems is limited at their lower (xeric) limits of distribution. A conventional mitigation measure for adaptive forest management is the return to nature-close management. Severe drought- and biotic impacts in forests indicate however the urgency of fundamental changes in forest policy. To provide assistance in selecting climate-tolerant provenances, species and adaptive technologies for future site conditions is therefore critical. A simplified Decision Support System has been developed for Hungary, keeping conventional elements of site potential assessment. Projections are specified for discrete site types. Processing forest inventory, landcover and geodata, the System provides GIS-supported site information and projections for individual forest compartments, options for tree species better tolerating future climate scenarios as well as their expected yield and risks. Data respectively projections are available for recent and current conditions, and for future reference periods until 2100. Also non-forest site conditions in the novel grassland (steppe) climate zone appear in projections. Experiences for proper management on these sites are however scarce.

Situating adaptation: How governance challenges and perceptions of uncertainty influence adaptation in the Rocky Mountains

Treesearch

Carina Wyborn; Laurie Yung; Daniel Murphy; Daniel R. Williams

2015-01-01

Adaptation is situated within multiple, interacting social, political, and economic forces. Adaptation pathways envision adaptation as a continual pathway of change and response embedded within this broader sociopolitical context. Pathways emphasize that current decisions are both informed by past actions and shape the landscape of future options. This research...

The Differences among Three-, Four-, and Five-Option-Item Formats in the Context of a High-Stakes English-Language Listening Test

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, HyeSun; Winke, Paula

2013-01-01

We adapted three practice College Scholastic Ability Tests (CSAT) of English listening, each with five-option items, to create four- and three-option versions by asking 73 Korean speakers or learners of English to eliminate the least plausible options in two rounds. Two hundred and sixty-four Korean high school English-language learners formed…

Regional-scale yield simulations using crop and climate models: assessing uncertainties, sensitivity to temperature and adaptation options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Challinor, A. J.

2010-12-01

Recent progress in assessing the impacts of climate variability and change on crops using multiple regional-scale simulations of crop and climate (i.e. ensembles) is presented. Simulations for India and China used perturbed responses to elevated carbon dioxide constrained using observations from FACE studies and controlled environments. Simulations with crop parameter sets representing existing and potential future adapted varieties were also carried out. The results for India are compared to sensitivity tests on two other crop models. For China, a parallel approach used socio-economic data to account for autonomous farmer adaptation. Results for the USA analysed cardinal temperatures under a range of local warming scenarios for 2711 varieties of spring wheat. The results are as follows: 1. Quantifying and reducing uncertainty. The relative contribution of uncertainty in crop and climate simulation to the total uncertainty in projected yield changes is examined. The observational constraints from FACE and controlled environment studies are shown to be the likely critical factor in maintaining relatively low crop parameter uncertainty. Without these constraints, crop simulation uncertainty in a doubled CO2 environment would likely be greater than uncertainty in simulating climate. However, consensus across crop models in India varied across different biophysical processes. 2. The response of yield to changes in local mean temperature was examined and compared to that found in the literature. No consistent response to temperature change was found across studies. 3. Implications for adaptation. China. The simulations of spring wheat in China show the relative importance of tolerance to water and heat stress in avoiding future crop failures. The greatest potential for reducing the number of harvests less than one standard deviation below the baseline mean yield value comes from alleviating water stress; the greatest potential for reducing harvests less than two standard deviations below the mean comes from alleviation of heat stress. The socio-economic analysis suggests that adaptation is also possible through measures such as greater investment. India. The simulations of groundnut in India identified regions where heat stress will play an increasing role in limiting crop yields, and other regions where crops with greater thermal time requirement will be needed. The simulations were used, together with an observed dataset and a simple analysis of crop cardinal temperatures and thermal time, to estimate the potential for adaptation using existing cultivars. USA. Analysis of spring wheat in the USA showed that at +2oC of local warming, 87% of the 2711 varieties examined, and all of the five most common varieties, could be used to maintain the crop duration of the current climate (i.e. successful adaptation to mean warming). At +4o this fell to 54% of all varieties, and two of the top five. 4. Future research. The results, and the limitations of the study, suggest directions for research to link climate and crop models, socio-economic analyses and crop variety trial data in order to prioritise adaptation options such as capacity building, plant breeding and biotechnology.

HyCAW: Hydrological Climate change Adaptation Wizard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bagli, Stefano; Mazzoli, Paolo; Broccoli, Davide; Luzzi, Valerio

2016-04-01

Changes in temporal and total water availability due to hydrologic and climate change requires an efficient use of resources through the selection of the best adaptation options. HyCAW provides a novel service to users willing or needing to adapt to hydrological change, by turning available scientific information into a user friendly online wizard that lets to: • Evaluate the monthly reduction of water availability induced by climate change; • Select the best adaptation options and visualize the benefits in terms of water balance and cost reduction; • Quantify potential of water saving by improving of water use efficiency. The tool entails knowledge of the intra-annual distribution of available surface and groundwater flows at a site under present and future (climate change) scenarios. This information is extracted from long term scenario simulation by E-HYPE (European hydrological predictions for the environment) model from Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, to quantify the expected evolution in water availability (e.g. percent reduction of soil infiltration and aquifer recharge; relative seasonal shift of runoff from summer to winter in mountain areas; etc.). Users are requested to provide in input their actual water supply on a monthly basis, both from surface and groundwater sources. Appropriate decision trees and an embedded precompiled database of Water saving technology for different sectors (household, agriculture, industrial, tourisms) lead them to interactively identify good practices for water saving/recycling/harvesting that they may implement in their specific context. Thanks to this service, users are not required to have a detailed understanding neither of data nor of hydrological processes, but may benefit of scientific analysis directly for practical adaptation in a simple and user friendly way, effectively improving their adaptation capacity. The tool is being developed under a collaborative FP7 funded project called SWITCH-ON (EU FP7 project No 603587) coordinated by SMHI (http://water-switch-on.eu/) and online demo is available at www.gecosistema.com/switchon

Towards a tipping point in responding to change: rising costs, fewer options for Arctic and global societies.

PubMed

Huntington, Henry P; Goodstein, Eban; Euskirchen, Eugénie

2012-02-01

Climate change incurs costs, but government adaptation budgets are limited. Beyond a certain point, individuals must bear the costs or adapt to new circumstances, creating political-economic tipping points that we explore in three examples. First, many Alaska Native villages are threatened by erosion, but relocation is expensive. To date, critically threatened villages have not yet been relocated, suggesting that we may already have reached a political-economic tipping point. Second, forest fires shape landscape and ecological characteristics in interior Alaska. Climate-driven changes in fire regime require increased fire-fighting resources to maintain current patterns of vegetation and land use, but these resources appear to be less and less available, indicating an approaching tipping point. Third, rapid sea level rise, for example from accelerated melting of the Greenland ice sheet, will create a choice between protection and abandonment for coastal regions throughout the world, a potential global tipping point comparable to those now faced by Arctic communities. The examples illustrate the basic idea that if costs of response increase more quickly than available resources, then society has fewer and fewer options as time passes.

The visual and functional impacts of astigmatism and its clinical management.

PubMed

Read, Scott A; Vincent, Stephen J; Collins, Michael J

2014-05-01

To provide a comprehensive overview of research examining the impact of astigmatism on clinical and functional measures of vision, the short and longer term adaptations to astigmatism that occur in the visual system, and the currently available clinical options for the management of patients with astigmatism. The presence of astigmatism can lead to substantial reductions in visual performance in a variety of clinical vision measures and functional visual tasks. Recent evidence demonstrates that astigmatic blur results in short-term adaptations in the visual system that appear to reduce the perceived impact of astigmatism on vision. In the longer term, uncorrected astigmatism in childhood can also significantly impact on visual development, resulting in amblyopia. Astigmatism is also associated with the development of spherical refractive errors. Although the clinical correction of small magnitudes of astigmatism is relatively straightforward, the precise, reliable correction of astigmatism (particularly high astigmatism) can be challenging. A wide variety of refractive corrections are now available for the patient with astigmatism, including spectacle, contact lens and surgical options. Astigmatism is one of the most common refractive errors managed in clinical ophthalmic practice. The significant visual and functional impacts of astigmatism emphasise the importance of its reliable clinical management. With continued improvements in ocular measurement techniques and developments in a range of different refractive correction technologies, the future promises the potential for more precise and comprehensive correction options for astigmatic patients. © 2014 The Authors Ophthalmic & Physiological Optics © 2014 The College of Optometrists.

A Many-Objective Approach to Developing Adaptive Water Supply Portfolios in the 'Research Triangle' Region of North Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeff, H. B.; Kasprzyk, J. R.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

2012-12-01

This study uses many-objective evolutionary optimization to quantify the tradeoffs water utilities face when developing flexible water shortage response plans. Alternatives to infrastructure development, such as temporary demand management programs and inter-utility water transfer agreements, allow local water providers to develop portfolios of water supply options capable of adapting to changing hydrologic conditions and growing water demand. The extent to which these options are implemented will be determined by a number of conflicting operational and financial considerations. An integrated reservoir simulation model including four large water utilities in the 'Research Triangle' region of North Carolina is used to evaluate the potential tradeoffs resulting from regional demands on shared infrastructure, customer concerns, and the financial uncertainty caused by the intermittent and irregular nature of drought. Instead of providing one optimal solution, multi-objective evolutionary algorithms (MOEAs) use the concept of non-dominations to discover a set of portfolio options in which no solution is inferior to any other solution in all objectives. Interactive visual analytics enable water providers to explore these tradeoffs and develop water shortage response plans tailored to their individual circumstances. The simulation model is evaluated under a number of different formulations to help identify and visualize the impacts of water efficiency, revenue/cost variability, consumer effects, and inter-utility cooperation. The different problems are formulated by adding portfolio options and objectives in such a way that the lower dimensional problem formulations are sub-sets of the full formulation. The full formulation considers reservoir reliability, water use restriction frequency, total water transfer allotment, total costs, revenue/cost variability, and additional consumer losses during restrictions. The simulation results highlight the inadequacy of lower order, cost-benefit type analyses to evaluate water management techniques as they move beyond the construction of large storage infrastructure. This work can help water providers develop the analytical tools to evaluate complex, adaptive techniques that are becoming more attractive in an era of growing municipal demand, risking infrastructure costs, and uncertain hydrology.

Development of a Bayesian response-adaptive trial design for the Dexamethasone for Excessive Menstruation study.

PubMed

Holm Hansen, Christian; Warner, Pamela; Parker, Richard A; Walker, Brian R; Critchley, Hilary Od; Weir, Christopher J

2017-12-01

It is often unclear what specific adaptive trial design features lead to an efficient design which is also feasible to implement. This article describes the preparatory simulation study for a Bayesian response-adaptive dose-finding trial design. Dexamethasone for Excessive Menstruation aims to assess the efficacy of Dexamethasone in reducing excessive menstrual bleeding and to determine the best dose for further study. To maximise learning about the dose response, patients receive placebo or an active dose with randomisation probabilities adapting based on evidence from patients already recruited. The dose-response relationship is estimated using a flexible Bayesian Normal Dynamic Linear Model. Several competing design options were considered including: number of doses, proportion assigned to placebo, adaptation criterion, and number and timing of adaptations. We performed a fractional factorial study using SAS software to simulate virtual trial data for candidate adaptive designs under a variety of scenarios and to invoke WinBUGS for Bayesian model estimation. We analysed the simulated trial results using Normal linear models to estimate the effects of each design feature on empirical type I error and statistical power. Our readily-implemented approach using widely available statistical software identified a final design which performed robustly across a range of potential trial scenarios.

Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on the Mediterranean islands' Agriculture (ADAPT2CLIMA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi

2016-04-01

Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that will likely be hit hardest by climate change, since it directly depends on climatic factors such as temperature, sunlight, and precipitation. The EU LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA (http://adapt2clima.eu/en/) project aims to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture by deploying and demonstrating an innovative decision support tool. The ADAPT2CLIMA tool will make it possible to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop production and the effectiveness of selected adaptation options in decreasing vulnerability to climate change in three Mediterranean islands, namely Crete (Greece), Sicily (Italy), and Cyprus. The islands were selected for two reasons: firstly, they figure among the most important cultivation areas at national level. Secondly, they exhibit similarities in terms of location (climate), size, climate change threats faced (coastal agriculture, own water resources), agricultural practices, and policy relevance. In particular, the tool will provide: i) climate change projections; ii) hydrological conditions related to agriculture: iii) a vulnerability assessment of selected crops; iv) an evaluation of the adaptation options identified. The project is expected to contribute significantly to increasing climate resilience of agriculture areas in Sicily, Cyprus and Crete as well as at EU and international level by: • Developing, implementing and demonstrating an innovative and interactive decision support tool (ADAPT2CLIMA tool) for adaptation planning in agriculture that estimates future climate change impacts on local water resources, as well as the climate change vulnerability of the agricultural crop production in the project areas; • Evaluating the technical and economic viability of the implementation of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool; • Developing climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture (including a monitoring plan) for the three project areas and presenting them to the competent authorities for adoption; • Simulating the effectiveness of the implementation of certain adaptation measures to address climate change impacts on agriculture; • Developing a stakeholder engagement strategy; • Increasing the knowledge of the impacts of climate change on the agricultural areas covered by the project, thus enabling well informed decision-making and enhancing readiness for early action in order to address the potential damages and minimize threats posed by climate change; • Developing a framework for mainstreaming agricultural adaptation measures into relevant national and regional policies; • Promoting the replication of the proposed methodology in order to ensure proper coordination of national and regional policies and between authorities.

Adaptation of water resource systems to an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, C. L.; Blenkinsop, S.; Fowler, H. J.; Burton, A.; Dawson, R. J.; Glenis, V.; Manning, L. J.; Kilsby, C. G.

2015-09-01

Globally, water resources management faces significant challenges from changing climate and growing populations. At local scales, the information provided by climate models is insufficient to support the water sector in making future adaptation decisions. Furthermore, projections of change in local water resources are wrought with uncertainties surrounding natural variability, future greenhouse gas emissions, model structure, population growth and water consumption habits. To analyse the magnitude of these uncertainties, and their implications for local scale water resource planning, we present a top-down approach for testing climate change adaptation options using probabilistic climate scenarios and demand projections. An integrated modelling framework is developed which implements a new, gridded spatial weather generator, coupled with a rainfall-runoff model and water resource management simulation model. We use this to provide projections of the number of days, and associated uncertainty that will require implementation of demand saving measures such as hose pipe bans and drought orders. Results, which are demonstrated for the Thames basin, UK, indicate existing water supplies are sensitive to a changing climate and an increasing population, and that the frequency of severe demand saving measures are projected to increase. Considering both climate projections and population growth the median number of drought order occurrences may increase five-fold. The effectiveness of a range of demand management and supply options have been tested and shown to provide significant benefits in terms of reducing the number of demand saving days. We found that increased supply arising from various adaptation options may compensate for increasingly variable flows; however, without reductions in overall demand for water resources such options will be insufficient on their own to adapt to uncertainties in the projected changes in climate and population. For example, a 30 % reduction in overall demand by 2050 has a greater impact on reducing the frequency of drought orders than any of the individual or combinations of supply options; hence a portfolio of measures are required.

Proso Millet (Panicum miliaceum L.) and Its Potential for Cultivation in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.: A Review

PubMed Central

Habiyaremye, Cedric; Matanguihan, Janet B.; D’Alpoim Guedes, Jade; Ganjyal, Girish M.; Whiteman, Michael R.; Kidwell, Kimberlee K.; Murphy, Kevin M.

2017-01-01

Proso millet (Panicum miliaceum L.) is a warm season grass with a growing season of 60–100 days. It is a highly nutritious cereal grain used for human consumption, bird seed, and/or ethanol production. Unique characteristics, such as drought and heat tolerance, make proso millet a promising alternative cash crop for the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the United States. Development of proso millet varieties adapted to dryland farming regions of the PNW could give growers a much-needed option for diversifying their predominantly wheat-based cropping systems. In this review, the agronomic characteristics of proso millet are discussed, with emphasis on growth habits and environmental requirements, place in prevailing crop rotations in the PNW, and nutritional and health benefits. The genetics of proso millet and the genomic resources available for breeding adapted varieties are also discussed. Last, challenges and opportunities of proso millet cultivation in the PNW are explored, including the potential for entering novel and regional markets. PMID:28119699

Proso Millet (Panicum miliaceum L.) and Its Potential for Cultivation in the Pacific Northwest, U.S.: A Review.

PubMed

Habiyaremye, Cedric; Matanguihan, Janet B; D'Alpoim Guedes, Jade; Ganjyal, Girish M; Whiteman, Michael R; Kidwell, Kimberlee K; Murphy, Kevin M

2016-01-01

Proso millet (Panicum miliaceum L. ) is a warm season grass with a growing season of 60-100 days. It is a highly nutritious cereal grain used for human consumption, bird seed, and/or ethanol production. Unique characteristics, such as drought and heat tolerance, make proso millet a promising alternative cash crop for the Pacific Northwest (PNW) region of the United States. Development of proso millet varieties adapted to dryland farming regions of the PNW could give growers a much-needed option for diversifying their predominantly wheat-based cropping systems. In this review, the agronomic characteristics of proso millet are discussed, with emphasis on growth habits and environmental requirements, place in prevailing crop rotations in the PNW, and nutritional and health benefits. The genetics of proso millet and the genomic resources available for breeding adapted varieties are also discussed. Last, challenges and opportunities of proso millet cultivation in the PNW are explored, including the potential for entering novel and regional markets.

Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

2014-05-01

There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation to increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from basic assumptions in the economic analysis and the hydrological model, but also from the projection of future societies to local climate change impacts and suitable adaptation options. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. We present an integrated uncertainty analysis, which can assess and quantify the overall uncertainty in relation to climate change adaptation to urban flash floods. The analysis is based on an uncertainty cascade that by means of Monte Carlo simulations of flood risk assessments incorporates climate change impacts as a key driver of risk changes over time. The overall uncertainty is then attributed to six bulk processes: climate change impact, urban rainfall-runoff processes, stage-depth functions, unit cost of repair, cost of adaptation measures, and discount rate. We apply the approach on an urban hydrological catchment in Odense, Denmark, and find that the uncertainty on the climate change impact appears to have the least influence on the net present value of the studied adaptation measures-. This does not imply that the climate change impact is not important, but that the uncertainties are not dominating when deciding on action or in-action. We then consider the uncertainty related to choosing between adaptation options given that a decision of action has been taken. In this case the major part of the uncertainty on the estimated net present values is identical for all adaptation options and will therefore not affect a comparison between adaptation measures. This makes the chose among the options easier. Furthermore, the explicit attribution of uncertainty also enables a reduction of the overall uncertainty by identifying the processes which contributes the most. This knowledge can then be used to further reduce the uncertainty related to decision making, as a substantial part of the remaining uncertainty is epistemic.

Adaptation strategies and approaches: Chapter 2

Treesearch

Patricia Butler; Chris Swanston; Maria Janowiak; Linda Parker; Matt St. Pierre; Leslie Brandt

2012-01-01

A wealth of information is available on climate change adaptation, but much of it is very broad and of limited use at the finer spatial scales most relevant to land managers. This chapter contains a "menu" of adaptation actions and provides land managers in northern Wisconsin with a range of options to help forest ecosystems adapt to climate change impacts....

Adaptation to Chronic Nutritional Stress Leads to Reduced Dependence on Microbiota in Drosophila melanogaster

PubMed Central

Kolly, Sylvain; van der Meer, Jan R.; Kawecki, Tadeusz J.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Numerous studies have shown that animal nutrition is tightly linked to gut microbiota, especially under nutritional stress. In Drosophila melanogaster, microbiota are known to promote juvenile growth, development, and survival on poor diets, mainly through enhanced digestion leading to changes in hormonal signaling. Here, we show that this reliance on microbiota is greatly reduced in replicated Drosophila populations that became genetically adapted to a poor larval diet in the course of over 170 generations of experimental evolution. Protein and polysaccharide digestion in these poor-diet-adapted populations became much less dependent on colonization with microbiota. This was accompanied by changes in expression levels of dFOXO transcription factor, a key regulator of cell growth and survival, and many of its targets. These evolutionary changes in the expression of dFOXO targets to a large degree mimic the response of the same genes to microbiota, suggesting that the evolutionary adaptation to poor diet acted on mechanisms that normally mediate the response to microbiota. Our study suggests that some metazoans have retained the evolutionary potential to adapt their physiology such that association with microbiota may become optional rather than essential. PMID:29066546

Developing the evidence base for mainstreaming adaptation of stormwater systems to climate change.

PubMed

Gersonius, B; Nasruddin, F; Ashley, R; Jeuken, A; Pathirana, A; Zevenbergen, C

2012-12-15

In a context of high uncertainty about hydro-climatic variables, the development of updated methods for climate impact and adaptation assessment is as important, if not more important than the provision of improved climate change data. In this paper, we introduce a hybrid method to facilitate mainstreaming adaptation of stormwater systems to climate change: i.e., the Mainstreaming method. The Mainstreaming method starts with an analysis of adaptation tipping points (ATPs), which is effect-based. These are points of reference where the magnitude of climate change is such that acceptable technical, environmental, societal or economic standards may be compromised. It extends the ATP analysis to include aspects from a bottom-up approach. The extension concerns the analysis of adaptation opportunities in the stormwater system. The results from both analyses are then used in combination to identify and exploit Adaptation Mainstreaming Moments (AMMs). Use of this method will enhance the understanding of the adaptive potential of stormwater systems. We have applied the proposed hybrid method to the management of flood risk for an urban stormwater system in Dordrecht (the Netherlands). The main finding of this case study is that the application of the Mainstreaming method helps to increase the no-/low-regret character of adaptation for several reasons: it focuses the attention on the most urgent effects of climate change; it is expected to lead to potential cost reductions, since adaptation options can be integrated into infrastructure and building design at an early stage instead of being applied separately; it will lead to the development of area-specific responses, which could not have been developed on a higher scale level; it makes it possible to take account of local values and sensibilities, which contributes to increased public and political support for the adaptive strategies. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Agreed but not preferred: expert views on taboo options for biodiversity conservation, given climate change.

PubMed

Hagerman, Shannon M; Satterfield, Terre

2014-04-01

Recent research indicates increasing openness among conservation experts toward a set of previously controversial proposals for biodiversity protection. These include actions such as assisted migration, and the application of climate-change-informed triage principles for decision-making (e.g., forgoing attention to target species deemed no longer viable). Little is known however, about the levels of expert agreement across different conservation adaptation actions, or the preferences that may come to shape policy recommendations. In this paper, we report findings from a web-based survey of biodiversity experts that assessed: (1) perceived risks of climate change (and other drivers) to biodiversity, (2) relative importance of different conservation goals, (3) levels of agreement/disagreement with the potential necessity of unconventional-taboo actions and approaches including affective evaluations of these, (4) preferences regarding the most important adaptation action for biodiversity, and (5) perceived barriers and strategic considerations regarding implementing adaptation initiatives. We found widespread agreement with a set of previously contentious approaches and actions, including the need for frameworks for prioritization and decision-making that take expected losses and emerging novel ecosystems into consideration. Simultaneously, this survey found enduring preferences for conventional actions (such as protected areas) as the most important policy action, and negative affective responses toward more interventionist proposals. We argue that expert views are converging on agreement across a set of taboo components in ways that differ from earlier published positions, and that these views are tempered by preferences for existing conventional actions and discomfort toward interventionist options. We discuss these findings in the context of anticipating some of the likely contours of future conservation debates. Lastly, we underscore the critical need for interdisciplinary, comparative, place-based adaptation research.

Paradoxical choice in rats: Subjective valuation and mechanism of choice.

PubMed

Ojeda, Andrés; Murphy, Robin A; Kacelnik, Alex

2018-07-01

Decision-makers benefit from information only when they can use it to guide behavior. However, recent experiments found that pigeons and starlings value information that they cannot use. Here we show that this paradox is also present in rats, and explore the underlying decision process. Subjects chose between two options that delivered food probabilistically after a fixed delay. In one option ("info"), outcomes (food/no-food) were signaled immediately after choice, whereas in the alternative ("non-info") the outcome was uncertain until the delay lapsed. Rats sacrificed up to 20% potential rewards by preferring the info option, but reversed preference when the cost was 60%. This reversal contrasts with the results found with pigeons and starlings and may reflect species' differences worth of further investigation. Results are consistent with predictions of the Sequential Choice Model (SCM), that proposes that choices are driven by the mechanisms that control action in sequential encounters. As expected from the SCM, latencies to respond in single-option trials predicted preferences in choice trials, and latencies in choice trials were the same or shorter than in single-option trials. We argue that the congruence of results in distant vertebrates probably reflects evolved adaptations to shared fundamental challenges in nature, and that the apparently paradoxical overvaluing of information is not sub-optimal as has been claimed, even though its functional significance is not yet understood. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Science-management collaborations: Developing adaptation options for National Forests

Treesearch

Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

2010-01-01

Climate is constantly changing, prompting natural and managed ecosystems to adjust. As a natural process, adaptation refers to the reactive changes that species and ecosystems make in response to environmental changes. With human intervention, adaptation refers to management actions and decisions that help ecological, social, and economic systems accommodate challenges...

MERINOVA: Meteorological risks as drivers of environmental innovation in agro-ecosystem management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, Anne; Oger, Robert; Marlier, Catherine; Van De Vijver, Hans; Vandermeulen, Valerie; Van Huylenbroeck, Guido; Zamani, Sepideh; Curnel, Yannick; Mettepenningen, Evi

2013-04-01

The BELSPO funded project 'MERINOVA' deals with risks associated with extreme weather phenomena and with risks of biological origin such as pests and diseases. The major objectives of the proposed project are to characterise extreme meteorological events, assess the impact on Belgian agro-ecosystems, characterise their vulnerability and resilience to these events, and explore innovative adaptation options to agricultural risk management. The project comprises of five major parts that reflect the chain of risks: (i) Hazard: Assessing the likely frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological events by means of probability density functions; (ii) Impact: Analysing the potential bio-physical and socio-economic impact of extreme weather events on agro-ecosystems in Belgium using process-based modelling techniques commensurate with the regional scale; (iii) Vulnerability: Identifying the most vulnerable agro-ecosystems using fuzzy multi-criteria and spatial analysis; (iv) Risk Management: Uncovering innovative risk management and adaptation options using actor-network theory and fuzzy cognitive mapping techniques; and, (v) Communication: Communicating to research, policy and practitioner communities using web-based techniques. The different tasks of the MERINOVA project require expertise in several scientific disciplines: meteorology, statistics, spatial database management, agronomy, bio-physical impact modelling, socio-economic modelling, actor-network theory, fuzzy cognitive mapping techniques. These expertises are shared by the four scientific partners who each lead one work package. The MERINOVA project will concentrate on promoting a robust and flexible framework by demonstrating its performance across Belgian agro-ecosystems, and by ensuring its relevance to policy makers and practitioners. Impacts developed from physically based models will not only provide information on the state of the damage at any given time, but also assist in understanding the links between different factors causing damage and determining bio-physical vulnerability. Socio-economic impacts will enlarge the basis for vulnerability mapping, risk management and adaptation options. A strong expert and end-user network will be established to help disseminating and exploiting project results to meet user needs.

Climate adaptation planning in practice: an evaluation of adaptation plans from three developed nations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Preston, Benjamin L; Westaway, Richard M.; Yuen, Emma J.

2011-04-01

Formal planning for climate change adaptation is emerging rapidly at a range of geo-political scales. This first generation of adaptation plans provides useful information regarding how institutions are framing the issue of adaptation and the range of processes that are recognized as being part of an adaptation response. To better understand adaptation planning among developed nations, a set of 57 adaptation plans from Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States was evaluated against a suite of 19 planning processes identified from existing guidance instruments for adaptation planning. Total scores among evaluated plans ranged from 16% of the maximum possiblemore » score to 61%, with an average of 37%. These results suggest adaptation plans are largely under-developed. Critical weaknesses in adaptation planning are related to limited consideration for non-climatic factors as well as neglect for issues of adaptive capacity including entitlements to various forms of capital needed for effective adaptation. Such gaps in planning suggest there are opportunities for institutions to make better use of existing guidance for adaptation planning and the need to consider the broader governance context in which adaptation will occur. In addition, the adaptation options prescribed by adaptation plans reflect a preferential bias toward low-risk capacity-building (72% of identified options) over the delivery of specific actions to reduce vulnerability. To the extent these findings are representative of the state of developed nation adaptation planning, there appear to be significant deficiencies in climate change preparedness, even among those nations often assumed to have the greatest adaptive capacity.« less

Climate change and forests of the future: Managing in the face of uncertainty

USGS Publications Warehouse

Millar, C.I.; Stephenson, N.L.; Stephens, S.L.

2007-01-01

We offer a conceptual framework for managing forested ecosystems under an assumption that future environments will be different from present but that we cannot be certain about the specifics of change. We encourage flexible approaches that promote reversible and incremental steps, and that favor ongoing learning and capacity to modify direction as situations change. We suggest that no single solution fits all future challenges, especially in the context of changing climates, and that the best strategy is to mix different approaches for different situations. Resources managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies (actions that help ecosystems accommodate changes adaptively) and mitigation strategies (actions that enable ecosystems to reduce anthropogenic influences on global climate) into overall plans. Adaptive strategies include resistance options (forestall impacts and protect highly valued resources), resilience options (improve the capacity of ecosystems to return to desired conditions after disturbance), and response options (facilitate transition of ecosystems from current to new conditions). Mitigation strategies include options to sequester carbon and reduce overall greenhouse gas emissions. Priority-setting approaches (e.g., triage), appropriate for rapidly changing conditions and for situations where needs are greater than available capacity to respond, will become increasingly important in the future. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

A "Rearrangement Procedure" for Scoring Adaptive Tests with Review Options.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Papanastasiou, Elena C.

Due to the increased popularity of computerized adaptive testing (CAT), many admissions tests, as well as certification and licensure examinations, have been transformed from their paper-and-pencil versions to computerized adaptive versions. A major difference between paper-and-pencil tests and CAT, from an examinees point of view, is that in many…

A "Rearrangement Procedure" for Scoring Adaptive Tests with Review Options

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Papanastasiou, Elena C.; Reckase, Mark D.

2007-01-01

Because of the increased popularity of computerized adaptive testing (CAT), many admissions tests, as well as certification and licensure examinations, have been transformed from their paper-and-pencil versions to computerized adaptive versions. A major difference between paper-and-pencil tests and CAT from an examinee's point of view is that in…

Normalized value coding explains dynamic adaptation in the human valuation process.

PubMed

Khaw, Mel W; Glimcher, Paul W; Louie, Kenway

2017-11-28

The notion of subjective value is central to choice theories in ecology, economics, and psychology, serving as an integrated decision variable by which options are compared. Subjective value is often assumed to be an absolute quantity, determined in a static manner by the properties of an individual option. Recent neurobiological studies, however, have shown that neural value coding dynamically adapts to the statistics of the recent reward environment, introducing an intrinsic temporal context dependence into the neural representation of value. Whether valuation exhibits this kind of dynamic adaptation at the behavioral level is unknown. Here, we show that the valuation process in human subjects adapts to the history of previous values, with current valuations varying inversely with the average value of recently observed items. The dynamics of this adaptive valuation are captured by divisive normalization, linking these temporal context effects to spatial context effects in decision making as well as spatial and temporal context effects in perception. These findings suggest that adaptation is a universal feature of neural information processing and offer a unifying explanation for contextual phenomena in fields ranging from visual psychophysics to economic choice.

Energy efficiency business options for industrial end users in Latin American competitive energy markets: The case of Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Botero, Sergio

2002-01-01

Energy markets today in Latin America and worldwide are being restructured from monopolies, either state-owned or privately-owned, to be more openly competitive and incorporate more participation from the private sector. Thus, the schemes that were formerly developed to foster end use energy efficiency are no longer applicable because they were based on mandatory regulations made with political decisions, without sufficiently considering economic feasibility. A consensus exists that the only way energy efficiency could survive in this new paradigm is by being market oriented, giving better services, and additional options to users. However; there is very little information on what end users prefer, and which options would most satisfy customers. Using Colombia as a case study, this research determines and categorizes the energy efficiency business options for large energy end users that can freely participate in the competitive energy market. The energy efficiency market is understood as a market of services aiming to increase efficiency in energy use. These services can be grouped into seven business options. A survey, following the descriptive method, was sent to energy end users in order to determine their preferences for specific energy efficiency business options, as well as the decision-making criteria taken into account for such options. This data was categorized in ten industry groups. As a conclusion, energy efficiency providers should adapt not only to the economic activity or processes of each customer, but also to the potential business options. It was also found that not all industries consider performance contracting as their most preferred option, as a matter of fact, some industries show much higher preference for conventional business options. Among end users, the divergence in option preferences contrasted with the convergence in decision-making criteria. The decision-making criteria "cost-benefit ratio" overwhelmed all other criterion. End users appear to chose a specific energy efficiency option based mostly on obtaining better economic returns, giving low consideration to other criterion that feature differences among the energy efficiency options.

U.S. Global Climate Change Impacts Report, Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R.

2009-12-01

Adaptation measures improve our ability to cope with or avoid harmful climate impacts and take advantage of beneficial ones, now and as climate varies and changes. Adaptation and mitigation are necessary elements of an effective response to climate change. Adaptation options also have the potential to moderate harmful impacts of current and future climate variability and change. The Global Climate Change Impacts Report identifies examples of adaptation-related actions currently being pursued in various sectors and regions to address climate change, as well as other environmental problems that could be exacerbated by climate change such as urban air pollution and heat waves. Some adaptation options that are currently being pursued in various regions and sectors to deal with climate change and/or other environmental issues are identified in this report. A range of adaptation responses can be employed to reduce risks through redesign or relocation of infrastructure, sustainability of ecosystem services, increased redundancy of critical social services, and operational improvements. Adapting to climate change is an evolutionary process and requires both analytic and deliberative decision support. Many of the climate change impacts described in the report have economic consequences. A significant part of these consequences flow through public and private insurance markets, which essentially aggregate and distribute society's risk. However, in most cases, there is currently insufficient robust information to evaluate the practicality, efficiency, effectiveness, costs, or benefits of adaptation measures, highlighting a need for research. Adaptation planning efforts such as that being conducted in New York City and the Colorado River will be described. Climate will be continually changing, moving at a relatively rapid rate, outside the range to which society has adapted in the past. The precise amounts and timing of these changes will not be known with certainty. The disaster research and emergency management communities have shown over that early warnings of impending hazards need to be complemented by information on the risks actually posed by the hazards (including those resulting from low levels of preparedness), existing strategies on the ground, and likely pathways to mitigate the loss and damage in the particular context in which they arise. Effective adaptations require information for long-term infrastructural planning and as critically deliberative mechanisms to structure learning and redesign in the face of emergent problems. Adaptation tends to be reactive, unevenly distributed, and focused on coping rather than preventing problems. Reduction in vulnerability will require anticipatory deliberative processes focused on incorporating adaptation into long-term municipal and public service planning, including energy, water, and health services, in the face of changing climate-related risks combined with ongoing changes in population, land use and development patterns.

Adaptation of water resource systems to an uncertain future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walsh, Claire L.; Blenkinsop, Stephen; Fowler, Hayley J.; Burton, Aidan; Dawson, Richard J.; Glenis, Vassilis; Manning, Lucy J.; Jahanshahi, Golnaz; Kilsby, Chris G.

2016-05-01

Globally, water resources management faces significant challenges from changing climate and growing populations. At local scales, the information provided by climate models is insufficient to support the water sector in making future adaptation decisions. Furthermore, projections of change in local water resources are wrought with uncertainties surrounding natural variability, future greenhouse gas emissions, model structure, population growth, and water consumption habits. To analyse the magnitude of these uncertainties, and their implications for local-scale water resource planning, we present a top-down approach for testing climate change adaptation options using probabilistic climate scenarios and demand projections. An integrated modelling framework is developed which implements a new, gridded spatial weather generator, coupled with a rainfall-runoff model and water resource management simulation model. We use this to provide projections of the number of days and associated uncertainty that will require implementation of demand saving measures such as hose pipe bans and drought orders. Results, which are demonstrated for the Thames Basin, UK, indicate existing water supplies are sensitive to a changing climate and an increasing population, and that the frequency of severe demand saving measures are projected to increase. Considering both climate projections and population growth, the median number of drought order occurrences may increase 5-fold by the 2050s. The effectiveness of a range of demand management and supply options have been tested and shown to provide significant benefits in terms of reducing the number of demand saving days. A decrease in per capita demand of 3.75 % reduces the median frequency of drought order measures by 50 % by the 2020s. We found that increased supply arising from various adaptation options may compensate for increasingly variable flows; however, without reductions in overall demand for water resources such options will be insufficient on their own to adapt to uncertainties in the projected changes in climate and population. For example, a 30 % reduction in overall demand by 2050 has a greater impact on reducing the frequency of drought orders than any of the individual or combinations of supply options; hence, a portfolio of measures is required.

Development of adaptive IWRM options for climate change mitigation and adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Flügel, W.-A.

2011-04-01

Adaptive Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) options related to the impacts of climate change in the twinning basins of the Upper Danube River Basin (UDRB) and the Upper Brahmaputra River Basin (UBRB) are developed based on the results obtained in the different work packages of the BRAHMATWINN project. They have been described and discussed in Chapter 2 till Chapter 9 and the paper is referring to and is integrating these findings with respect to their application and interpretation for the development of adaptive IWRM options addressing impacts of climate change in river basins. The data and information related to the results discussed in Chapter 2 till 8 have been input to the RBIS as a central component of the IWRMS (Chapter 9). Meanwhile the UDRB has been analysed with respect to IWRM and climate change impacts by various projects, i.e. the GLOWA-Danube BMBF funded project (GLOWA Danube, 2009; Mauser and Ludwig, 2002) the UBRB has not been studied so far in a similar way as it was done in the BRAHMATWINN project. Therefore the IWRM option development is focussing on the UBRB but the methodology presented can be applied for the UDRB and other river basins as well. Data presented and analysed in this chapter have been elaborated by the BRAHMATWINN project partners and are published in the project deliverable reports available from the project homepage http://www.brahmatwinn.uni-jena.de/index.php?id=5311&L=2.

Adapting to climate change : the public policy response - public infrastructure

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-06-01

This paper assesses the threats and needs that multidimensional climate change imposes for : public infrastructure, reviews the existing adaptive capacity that could be applied to respond : to these threats and needs, and presents options for enhanci...

Assessment of urban pluvial flood risk and efficiency of adaptation options through simulations - A new generation of urban planning tools

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Löwe, Roland; Urich, Christian; Sto. Domingo, Nina; Mark, Ole; Deletic, Ana; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2017-07-01

We present a new framework for flexible testing of flood risk adaptation strategies in a variety of urban development and climate scenarios. This framework couples the 1D-2D hydrodynamic simulation package MIKE FLOOD with the agent-based urban development model DAnCE4Water and provides the possibility to systematically test various flood risk adaptation measures ranging from large infrastructure changes over decentralised water management to urban planning policies. We have tested the framework in a case study in Melbourne, Australia considering 9 scenarios for urban development and climate and 32 potential combinations of flood adaptation measures. We found that the performance of adaptation measures strongly depended on the considered climate and urban development scenario and the other implementation measures implemented, suggesting that adaptive strategies are preferable over one-off investments. Urban planning policies proved to be an efficient means for the reduction of flood risk, while implementing property buyback and pipe increases in a guideline-oriented manner was too costly. Random variations in location and time point of urban development could have significant impact on flood risk and would in some cases outweigh the benefits of less efficient adaptation strategies. The results of our setup can serve as an input for robust decision making frameworks and thus support the identification of flood risk adaptation measures that are economically efficient and robust to variations of climate and urban layout.

Climate project screening tool: an aid for climate change adaptation

Treesearch

Toni Lyn Morelli; Sharon Yeh; Nikola M. Smith; Mary Beth Hennessy; Constance I. Millar

2012-01-01

To address the impacts of climate change, land managers need techniques for incorporating adaptation into ongoing or impending projects. We present a new tool, the Climate Project Screening Tool (CPST), for integrating climate change considerations into project planning as well as for developing concrete adaptation options for land managers. We designed CPST as part of...

Wildfire risk adaptation: propensity of forestland owners to purchase wildfire insurance in the southern United States

Treesearch

Jianbang Gan; Adam Jarrett; Cassandra Johnson Gaither

2014-01-01

Economic and ecological damages caused by wildfire are alarming, and such damages are expected to rise with changes in wildfire regimes, calling for more effective wildfire mitigation and adaptation strategies. Among wildfire adaptation options for forestland owners is purchasing wildfire insurance, which provides compensation to those insured if a wildfire damages...

Adaptations to climate change: Colville and Okanogan-Wenatchee National Forests

Treesearch

William L. Gaines; David W. Peterson; Cameron A. Thomas; Richy J. Harrod

2012-01-01

Forest managers are seeking practical guidance on how to adapt their current practices and, if necessary, their management goals, in response to climate change. Science-management collaboration was initiated on national forests in eastern Washington where resource managers showed a keen interest in science-based options for adapting to climate change at a 2-day...

The nature of the beast: examining climate adaptation options in forests with stand-replacing fire regimes

Treesearch

Joshua S. Halofsky; Daniel C. Donato; Jerry F. Franklin; Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson; Brian J. Harvey

2018-01-01

Building resilience to natural disturbances is a key to managing forests for adaptation to climate change. To date, most climate adaptation guidance has focused on recommendations for frequent-fire forests, leaving few published guidelines for forests that naturally experience infrequent, stand-replacing wildfires. Because most such forests are inherently resilient to...

An integrated framework to assess adaptation options to climate change impacts in an irrigated basin in Central North Chile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vicuna, S.; Melo, O.; Meza, F. J.; Alvarez, P.; Maureira, F.; Sanchez, A.; Tapia, A.; Cortes, M.; Dale, L. L.

2013-12-01

Future climate conditions could potentially affect water supply and demand on water basins throughout the world but especially on snowmelt-driven agriculture oriented basins that can be found throughout central Chile. Increasing temperature and reducing precipitation will affect both the magnitude and timing of water supply this part of the world. Different adaptation strategies could be implemented to reduce the impacts of such scenarios. Some could be incorporated as planned policies decided at the basin or Water Use Organization levels. Examples include changing large scale irrigation infrastructure (reservoirs and main channels) either physically or its operation. Complementing these strategies it is reasonable to think that at a disaggregated level, farmers would also react (adapt) to these new conditions using a mix of options to either modify their patterns of consumption (irrigation efficiency, crop mix, crop area reduction), increase their ability to access new sources of water (groundwater, water markets) or finally compensate their expected losses (insurance). We present a modeling framework developed to represent these issues using as a case study the Limarí basin located in Central Chile. This basin is a renowned example of how the development of reservoirs and irrigation infrastructure can reduce climate vulnerabilities allowing the economic development of a basin. Farmers in this basin tackle climate variability by adopting different strategies that depend first on the reservoir water volume allocation rule, on the type and size of investment they have at their farms and finally their potential access to water markets and other water supplies options. The framework developed can be used to study these strategies under current and future climate scenarios. The cornerstone of the framework is an hydrology and water resources model developed on the WEAP platform. This model is able to reproduce the large scale hydrologic features of the basin such as snowmelt hydrology, reservoir operation and groundwater dynamics. Crop yield under different water irrigation patterns have been inferred using a calibrated Cropsyst model. These crop yields together with user association irrigation constraints are used in a GAMS optimization model embedded dynamically in WEAP in order to obtain every year decisions on crop mix (including fallow land), irrigation patterns and participation in the spot water market. The GAMS optimization model has been calibrated using annual crop mix time series derived using a combination of sources of information ranging from different type of census plus satellite images. The resulting modeling platform is able to simulate under historic and future climate scenarios water availability in different locations of the basin with associated crop yield and economic consequences. The platform also allows the implementation of autonomous and planned adaptation strategies that could reduce the impacts of climate variability and climate change.

Universal Design: A Step toward Successful Aging

PubMed Central

Carr, Kelly; Weir, Patricia L.; Azar, Dory; Azar, Nadia R.

2013-01-01

The concept of aging successfully has become increasingly important as demographics shift towards an aging population. Successful aging has been defined to include (1) a low probability of disease and disease-related disability; (2) a high level of physical and cognitive functioning; and (3) an active engagement in life. The built environment can create opportunities or constraints for seniors to participate in social and productive activities. Universally designed spaces are more easily accessed and used by a spectrum of people without specialized adaptations. Thus, a universally designed environment creates opportunities for older adults to participate in these activities without the stigmatization associated with adapted or accessible designs. Providing older adults with specific universal design options (e.g., lever handle faucets) has the potential to increase the ease of completing activities of daily living, which promotes a continual engagement in life. Literature regarding universal design is promising; however, its theory requires further attention from professionals designing the built environment, evidence of the significance of its application from academics, and the embracement of its core principles from society. Overall, universal design has the potential to provide a stepping stone toward successful aging. PMID:23431446

How to deal with climate change uncertainty in the planning of engineering systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spackova, Olga; Dittes, Beatrice; Straub, Daniel

2016-04-01

The effect of extreme events such as floods on the infrastructure and built environment is associated with significant uncertainties: These include the uncertain effect of climate change, uncertainty on extreme event frequency estimation due to limited historic data and imperfect models, and, not least, uncertainty on future socio-economic developments, which determine the damage potential. One option for dealing with these uncertainties is the use of adaptable (flexible) infrastructure that can easily be adjusted in the future without excessive costs. The challenge is in quantifying the value of adaptability and in finding the optimal sequence of decision. Is it worth to build a (potentially more expensive) adaptable system that can be adjusted in the future depending on the future conditions? Or is it more cost-effective to make a conservative design without counting with the possible future changes to the system? What is the optimal timing of the decision to build/adjust the system? We develop a quantitative decision-support framework for evaluation of alternative infrastructure designs under uncertainties, which: • probabilistically models the uncertain future (trough a Bayesian approach) • includes the adaptability of the systems (the costs of future changes) • takes into account the fact that future decisions will be made under uncertainty as well (using pre-posterior decision analysis) • allows to identify the optimal capacity and optimal timing to build/adjust the infrastructure. Application of the decision framework will be demonstrated on an example of flood mitigation planning in Bavaria.

Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events.

PubMed

Green, Manfred S; Pri-Or, Noemie Groag; Capeluto, Guedi; Epstein, Yoram; Paz, Shlomit

2013-06-27

Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority.

Adaptation response surfaces from an ensemble of wheat projections under climate change in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Ramos, Margarita; Ferrise, Roberto

2016-04-01

The uncertainty about climate change (CC) complicates impact adaptation and risk management evaluation at the regional level. Approaches for managing this uncertainty and for simulating and communicating climate change impacts and adaptation opportunities are required. Here we apply an ensemble of crop models for adapting rainfed winter wheat at Lleida (NE Spain), constructing adaptation response surfaces (ARS). Our methodology has been adapted from Pirttioja et al. (2015). Impact response surfaces (IRS) are plotted surfaces showing the response of an impact variable (here crop yield Y) to changes in two explanatory variables (here precipitation P and temperature T). By analyzing adaptation variables such as changes in crop yield (ΔY) when an adaptation option is simulated, these can be interpreted as the adaptation response to potential changes of P and T, i.e. ARS. To build these ARS, we explore the sensitivity of an ensemble of wheat models to changes in T and P. Baseline (1981-2010) T and P were modified using a delta change approach with changes in the seasonal patterns. Three levels of CO2 (representing future conditions until 2050) and two actual soil profiles are considered. Crop models were calibrated with field data from Abeledo et al. (2008) and Cartelle et al. (2006). Most promising adaptation options to be analyzed by the ARS approach are identified in a pilot stage with the models DSSAT4.5 and SiriusQuality v.2, subsequently simulating the selected adaptation combinations by the whole ensemble of 11 crop models. The adaptation options identified from pilot stage were: a cultivar with no vernalisation requirements, shortening or extending a 10 % the crop cycle of the standard cultivar, sowing 15 days earlier and 30 days later than the standard date, supplementary irrigation with 40 mm at flowering and full irrigation. These options and those of the standard cultivar and management resulted in 54 combinations and 450.000 runs per crop model. Our preliminary ARSs show some adaptation options allow recover up to ca. 2000 kg/ha. Compared to the historical yields recorded at Lleida province (2550 kg/ha in 1981-2010) our results indicate that adaptation is feasible and may help to reduce detrimental effects of CC. Our analysis evaluates if the explored adaptations fulfill the biophysical requirements to become a practical adaptive solution. This study exemplifies how adaptation options and their impacts can be analyzed, evaluated and communicated in a context of high regional uncertainty for current and future conditions and for short to long-term perspective. This work was funded by MACSUR project within FACCE-JPI. References Abeledo, L.G., R. Savin and G.A. Slafer (2008). European Journal of Agronomy 28:541-550. Cartelle, J., A. Pedró, R. Savin, G.A. Slafer (2006) European Journal of Agronomy 25:365-371. Pirttioja, N., T. Carter, S. Fronzek, M. Bindi, H. Hoffmann, T. Palosuo, M. Ruiz-Ramos, F. Tao, M. Acutis, S. Asseng, P. Baranowski, B. Basso, P. Bodin, S. Buis, D. Cammarano, P. Deligios, M.-F. Destain, B. Dumont, R. Ewert, R. Ferrise, L. François, T. Gaiser, P. Hlavinka, I. Jacquemin, K.C. Kersebaum, C. Kollas, J. Krzyszczak, I.J. Lorite, J. Minet, M.I. Minguez, M. Montesino, M. Moriondo, C. Müller, C. Nendel, I. Öztürk, A. Perego, A. Rodríguez, A.C. Ruane, F. Ruget, M. Sanna, M.A. Semenov, C. Slawinski, P. Stratonovitch, I. Supit, K. Waha, E. Wang, L. Wu, Z. Zhao, and R.P. Rötter, 2015: A crop model ensemble analysis of temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect using impact response surfaces. Clim. Res., 65, 87-105, doi:10.3354/cr01322. IRS2 TEAM: Alfredo Rodríguez(1), Ignacio J. Lorite(3), Fulu Tao(4), Nina Pirttioja(5), Stefan Fronzek(5), Taru Palosuo(4), Timothy R. Carter(5), Marco Bindi(2), Jukka G Höhn(4), Kurt Christian Kersebaum(6), Miroslav Trnka(7,8), Holger Hoffmann(9), Piotr Baranowski(10), Samuel Buis(11), Davide Cammarano(12), Yi Chen(13,4), Paola Deligios(14), Petr Hlavinka(7,8), Frantisek Jurecka(7,8), Jaromir Krzyszczak(10), Marcos Lana(6), Julien Minet(15), Manuel Montesino(16), Claas Nendel(6), John Porter(16), Jaime Recio(1), Françoise Ruget(11), Alberto Sanz(1), Zacharias Steinmetz(17,18), Pierre Stratonovitch(19), Iwan Supit(20), Domenico Ventrella(21), Allard de Wit(20) and Reimund P. Rötter(4). 1 Universidad Politecnica de Madrid, ETSIAgrónomos,28040 Madrid, Spain, margarita.ruiz.ramos@upm.es 2 University of Florence, 50144 Florence, Italy 3 IFAPA Junta de Andalucia, 14004 Córdoba, Spain 4 Natural Resources Institute (LUKE), 01370 Vantaa, Finland 5 Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), 00250 Helsinki, Finland 6 Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), 15374 Müncheberg, Germany 7 Institute of Agrosystems and Bioclimatology, Mendel University in Brno, Brno 613 00, Czech Republic 8 Global Change Research Institute CAS, 603 00 Brno, Czech Republic 9 INRES, University of Bonn, 53115 Bonn, Germany 10 Institute of Agrophysics Polish Academy of Sciences, Lublin, Poland 11 INRA, UMR 1114 EMMAH, F-84914 Avignon, France 12 James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee, DD2 5DA, Scotland 13 State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China 14 University of Sassari, 07100 Sassari, Italy 15 Université de Liège, 4000 Liège, Belgium 16 University of Copenhagen, 2630 Taastrup, Denmark 17 RIFCON GmbH, 69493 Hirschberg, Germany 18 Group of Environmental and Soil Chemistry, Institute for Environmental Sciences, University of Koblenz-Landau, 76829 Landau, Germany 19 Rothamsted Research, Harpenden, Herts, AL5 2JQ, UK 20 Wageningen University, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands 21 Consiglio per la ricerca in agricoltura e l'analisi dell'economia agraria. CRA-SCA

Using linear polarization for LWIR hyperspectral sensing of liquid contaminants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thériault, Jean-Marc; Fortin, Gilles; Lacasse, Paul; Bouffard, François; Lavoie, Hugo

2013-09-01

We report and analyze recent results obtained with the MoDDIFS sensor (Multi-option Differential Detection and Imaging Fourier Spectrometer) for the passive polarization sensing of liquid contaminants in the long wave infrared (LWIR). Field measurements of polarized spectral radiance done on ethylene glycol and SF96 probed at distances of 6.5 and 450 meters, respectively, have been used to develop and test a GLRT-type detection algorithm adapted for liquid contaminants. The GLRT detection results serve to establish the potential and advantage of probing the vertical and horizontal linear hyperspectral polarization components for improving liquid contaminants detection.

Expanding Educational Services for Adults. OPTIONS. Publicity Kit.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ohio State Univ., Columbus. National Center for Research in Vocational Education.

This publicity kit is intended to provide adult educators with materials for promoting and recruiting students into an adult education program designed according to the OPTIONS model (i.e., programs geared toward teaching the literacy, technical, and entrepreneurship skills that are necessary to adapt to changing labor market conditions resulting…

Conclusions [Chapter 13

Treesearch

S. Karen Dante-Wood; Linh Hoang

2018-01-01

The Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnership (NRAP) provided significant contributions to assist climate change response in national forests and national parks of the Northern Rockies region. The effort synthesized the best available scientific information to assess climate change vulnerability, develop adaptation options, and catalyze a collaboration of land management...

Conclusions [Chapter 15

Treesearch

Joanne J. Ho; David L. Peterson; Natalie J. Little

2018-01-01

The Intermountain Adaptation Partnership (IAP) provided significant contributions to assist climate change response in national forests and national parks of the region. The effort synthesized the best available scientific information to assess climate change vulnerability, develop adaptation options, and catalyze a collaboration of land management agencies and...

Digital adaptive controllers for VTOL vehicles. Volume 2: Software documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hartmann, G. L.; Stein, G.; Pratt, S. G.

1979-01-01

The VTOL approach and landing test (VALT) adaptive software is documented. Two self-adaptive algorithms, one based on an implicit model reference design and the other on an explicit parameter estimation technique were evaluated. The organization of the software, user options, and a nominal set of input data are presented along with a flow chart and program listing of each algorithm.

Options of system integrated environment modelling in the predicated dynamic cyberspace

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Janková, Martina; Dvořák, Jiří

In this article there are briefly mentioned some selected options of contemporary conception of cybernetic system models in the corresponding and possible integratable environment with modern system dynamics thinking and all this in the cyberspace of possible projecting of predicted system characteristics. The key to new capabilities of system integration modelling in the considered cyberspace is mainly the ability to improve the environment and the system integration options, all this with the aim of modern control in the hierarchically arranged dynamic cyberspace, e.g. in the currently desired electronic business with information. The aim of this article is to assess generallymore » the trends in the use of modern modelling methods considering the cybernetics applications verified in practice, modern concept of project management and also the potential integration of artificial intelligence in the new projecting and project management of integratable and intelligent models, e.g. with the optimal structures and adaptable behaviour.The article results from the solution of a specific research partial task at the faculty; especially the moments proving that the new economics will be based more and more on information, knowledge system defined cyberspace of modern management, are stressed in the text.« less

The multidimensional Self-Adaptive Grid code, SAGE, version 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davies, Carol B.; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj

1995-01-01

This new report on Version 2 of the SAGE code includes all the information in the original publication plus all upgrades and changes to the SAGE code since that time. The two most significant upgrades are the inclusion of a finite-volume option and the ability to adapt and manipulate zonal-matching multiple-grid files. In addition, the original SAGE code has been upgraded to Version 1.1 and includes all options mentioned in this report, with the exception of the multiple grid option and its associated features. Since Version 2 is a larger and more complex code, it is suggested (but not required) that Version 1.1 be used for single-grid applications. This document contains all the information required to run both versions of SAGE. The formulation of the adaption method is described in the first section of this document. The second section is presented in the form of a user guide that explains the input and execution of the code. The third section provides many examples. Successful application of the SAGE code in both two and three dimensions for the solution of various flow problems has proven the code to be robust, portable, and simple to use. Although the basic formulation follows the method of Nakahashi and Deiwert, many modifications have been made to facilitate the use of the self-adaptive grid method for complex grid structures. Modifications to the method and the simple but extensive input options make this a flexible and user-friendly code. The SAGE code can accommodate two-dimensional and three-dimensional, finite-difference and finite-volume, single grid, and zonal-matching multiple grid flow problems.

Mate choice in fruit flies is rational and adaptive.

PubMed

Arbuthnott, Devin; Fedina, Tatyana Y; Pletcher, Scott D; Promislow, Daniel E L

2017-01-17

According to rational choice theory, beneficial preferences should lead individuals to sort available options into linear, transitive hierarchies, although the extent to which non-human animals behave rationally is unclear. Here we demonstrate that mate choice in the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster results in the linear sorting of a set of diverse isogenic female lines, unambiguously demonstrating the hallmark of rational behaviour, transitivity. These rational choices are associated with direct benefits, enabling males to maximize offspring production. Furthermore, we demonstrate that female behaviours and cues act redundantly in mate detection and assessment, as rational mate choice largely persists when visual or chemical sensory modalities are impaired, but not when both are impaired. Transitivity in mate choice demonstrates that the quality of potential mates varies significantly among genotypes, and that males and females behave in such a way as to facilitate adaptive mate choice.

Fast and flexible selection with a single switch.

PubMed

Broderick, Tamara; MacKay, David J C

2009-10-22

Selection methods that require only a single-switch input, such as a button click or blink, are potentially useful for individuals with motor impairments, mobile technology users, and individuals wishing to transmit information securely. We present a single-switch selection method, "Nomon," that is general and efficient. Existing single-switch selection methods require selectable options to be arranged in ways that limit potential applications. By contrast, traditional operating systems, web browsers, and free-form applications (such as drawing) place options at arbitrary points on the screen. Nomon, however, has the flexibility to select any point on a screen. Nomon adapts automatically to an individual's clicking ability; it allows a person who clicks precisely to make a selection quickly and allows a person who clicks imprecisely more time to make a selection without error. Nomon reaps gains in information rate by allowing the specification of beliefs (priors) about option selection probabilities and by avoiding tree-based selection schemes in favor of direct (posterior) inference. We have developed both a Nomon-based writing application and a drawing application. To evaluate Nomon's performance, we compared the writing application with a popular existing method for single-switch writing (row-column scanning). Novice users wrote 35% faster with the Nomon interface than with the scanning interface. An experienced user (author TB, with 10 hours practice) wrote at speeds of 9.3 words per minute with Nomon, using 1.2 clicks per character and making no errors in the final text.

Realities of weather extremes on daily life in urban India - How quantified impacts infer sensible adaptation options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reckien, D.

2012-12-01

Emerging and developing economies are currently undergoing one of the profoundest socio-spatial transitions in their history, with strong urbanization and weather extremes bringing about changes in the economy, forms of living and living conditions, but also increasing risks and altered social divides. The impacts of heat waves and strong rain events are therefore differently perceived among urban residents. Addressing the social differences of climate change impacts1 and expanding targeted adaptation options have emerged as urgent policy priorities, particularly for developing and emerging economies2. This paper discusses the perceived impacts of weather-related extreme events on different social groups in New Delhi and Hyderabad, India. Using network statistics and scenario analysis on Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCMs) as part of a vulnerability analysis, the investigation provides quantitative and qualitative measures to compare impacts and adaptation strategies for different social groups. Impacts of rain events are stronger than those of heat in both cities and affect the lower income classes particularly. Interestingly, the scenario analysis (comparing altered networks in which the alteration represents a possible adaptation measure) shows that investments in the water infrastructure would be most meaningful and more effective than investments in, e.g., the traffic infrastructure, despite the stronger burden from traffic disruptions and the resulting concentration of planning and policy on traffic ease and investments. The method of Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping offers a link between perception and modeling, and the possibility to aggregate and analyze the views of a large number of stakeholders. Our research has shown that planners and politicians often know about many of the problems, but are often overwhelmed by the problems in their respective cities and look for a prioritization of adaptation options. FCM provides this need and identifies priority adaptation options when resources are scarce. 1 Parry ML, Canziani OF, Palutikof JP, van der Linden PJ, Hanson CE (eds) (2007) Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge New York. 2 TERI (2007) Adaptation to Climate Change in the context of Sustainable Development. Background Paper to the conference ''Climate Change and Sustainable Development: An international workshop to strengthen research and understanding'', 7-8 April 2006, The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi.

Urban drainage system planning and design--challenges with climate change and urbanization: a review.

PubMed

Yazdanfar, Zeinab; Sharma, Ashok

2015-01-01

Urban drainage systems are in general failing in their functions mainly due to non-stationary climate and rapid urbanization. As these systems are becoming less efficient, issues such as sewer overflows and increase in urban flooding leading to surge in pollutant loads to receiving water bodies are becoming pervasive rapidly. A comprehensive investigation is required to understand these factors impacting the functioning of urban drainage, which vary spatially and temporally and are more complex when weaving together. It is necessary to establish a cost-effective, integrated planning and design framework for every local area by incorporating fit for purpose alternatives. Carefully selected adaptive measures are required for the provision of sustainable drainage systems to meet combined challenges of climate change and urbanization. This paper reviews challenges associated with urban drainage systems and explores limitations and potentials of different adaptation alternatives. It is hoped that the paper would provide drainage engineers, water planners, and decision makers with the state of the art information and technologies regarding adaptation options to increase drainage systems efficiency under changing climate and urbanization.

Critical role for the mediodorsal thalamus in permitting rapid reward-guided updating in stochastic reward environments

PubMed Central

Chakraborty, Subhojit; Kolling, Nils; Walton, Mark E; Mitchell, Anna S

2016-01-01

Adaptive decision-making uses information gained when exploring alternative options to decide whether to update the current choice strategy. Magnocellular mediodorsal thalamus (MDmc) supports adaptive decision-making, but its causal contribution is not well understood. Monkeys with excitotoxic MDmc damage were tested on probabilistic three-choice decision-making tasks. They could learn and track the changing values in object-reward associations, but they were severely impaired at updating choices after reversals in reward contingencies or when there were multiple options associated with reward. These deficits were not caused by perseveration or insensitivity to negative feedback though. Instead, monkeys with MDmc lesions exhibited an inability to use reward to promote choice repetition after switching to an alternative option due to a diminished influence of recent past choices and the last outcome to guide future behavior. Together, these data suggest MDmc allows for the rapid discovery and persistence with rewarding options, particularly in uncertain or changing environments. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.13588.001 PMID:27136677

Secure transport and adaptation of MC-EZBC video utilizing H.264-based transport protocols☆

PubMed Central

Hellwagner, Hermann; Hofbauer, Heinz; Kuschnig, Robert; Stütz, Thomas; Uhl, Andreas

2012-01-01

Universal Multimedia Access (UMA) calls for solutions where content is created once and subsequently adapted to given requirements. With regard to UMA and scalability, which is required often due to a wide variety of end clients, the best suited codecs are wavelet based (like the MC-EZBC) due to their inherent high number of scaling options. However, most transport technologies for delivering videos to end clients are targeted toward the H.264/AVC standard or, if scalability is required, the H.264/SVC. In this paper we will introduce a mapping of the MC-EZBC bitstream to existing H.264/SVC based streaming and scaling protocols. This enables the use of highly scalable wavelet based codecs on the one hand and the utilization of already existing network technologies without accruing high implementation costs on the other hand. Furthermore, we will evaluate different scaling options in order to choose the best option for given requirements. Additionally, we will evaluate different encryption options based on transport and bitstream encryption for use cases where digital rights management is required. PMID:26869746

Climate change adaptation strategies for resource management and conservation planning.

PubMed

Lawler, Joshua J

2009-04-01

Recent rapid changes in the Earth's climate have altered ecological systems around the globe. Global warming has been linked to changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, interspecific interactions, and disturbance regimes. Projected future climate change will undoubtedly result in even more dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. These shifts will provide one of the largest challenges to natural resource managers and conservation planners. Managing natural resources and ecosystems in the face of uncertain climate requires new approaches. Here, the many adaptation strategies that have been proposed for managing natural systems in a changing climate are reviewed. Most of the recommended approaches are general principles and many are tools that managers are already using. What is new is a turning toward a more agile management perspective. To address climate change, managers will need to act over different spatial and temporal scales. The focus of restoration will need to shift from historic species assemblages to potential future ecosystem services. Active adaptive management based on potential future climate impact scenarios will need to be a part of everyday operations. And triage will likely become a critical option. Although many concepts and tools for addressing climate change have been proposed, key pieces of information are still missing. To successfully manage for climate change, a better understanding will be needed of which species and systems will likely be most affected by climate change, how to preserve and enhance the evolutionary capacity of species, how to implement effective adaptive management in new systems, and perhaps most importantly, in which situations and systems will the general adaptation strategies that have been proposed work and how can they be effectively applied.

Constructing Temporally Extended Actions through Incremental Community Detection

PubMed Central

Li, Ge

2018-01-01

Hierarchical reinforcement learning works on temporally extended actions or skills to facilitate learning. How to automatically form such abstraction is challenging, and many efforts tackle this issue in the options framework. While various approaches exist to construct options from different perspectives, few of them concentrate on options' adaptability during learning. This paper presents an algorithm to create options and enhance their quality online. Both aspects operate on detected communities of the learning environment's state transition graph. We first construct options from initial samples as the basis of online learning. Then a rule-based community revision algorithm is proposed to update graph partitions, based on which existing options can be continuously tuned. Experimental results in two problems indicate that options from initial samples may perform poorly in more complex environments, and our presented strategy can effectively improve options and get better results compared with flat reinforcement learning. PMID:29849543

Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation

PubMed Central

Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

2016-01-01

West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such changes and in the potential for adaptation. PMID:27625660

Agriculture in West Africa in the Twenty-First Century: Climate Change and Impacts Scenarios, and Potential for Adaptation.

PubMed

Sultan, Benjamin; Gaetani, Marco

2016-01-01

West Africa is known to be particularly vulnerable to climate change due to high climate variability, high reliance on rain-fed agriculture, and limited economic and institutional capacity to respond to climate variability and change. In this context, better knowledge of how climate will change in West Africa and how such changes will impact crop productivity is crucial to inform policies that may counteract the adverse effects. This review paper provides a comprehensive overview of climate change impacts on agriculture in West Africa based on the recent scientific literature. West Africa is nowadays experiencing a rapid climate change, characterized by a widespread warming, a recovery of the monsoonal precipitation, and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The observed climate tendencies are also projected to continue in the twenty-first century under moderate and high emission scenarios, although large uncertainties still affect simulations of the future West African climate, especially regarding the summer precipitation. However, despite diverging future projections of the monsoonal rainfall, which is essential for rain-fed agriculture, a robust evidence of yield loss in West Africa emerges. This yield loss is mainly driven by increased mean temperature while potential wetter or drier conditions as well as elevated CO2 concentrations can modulate this effect. Potential for adaptation is illustrated for major crops in West Africa through a selection of studies based on process-based crop models to adjust cropping systems (change in varieties, sowing dates and density, irrigation, fertilizer management) to future climate. Results of the cited studies are crop and region specific and no clear conclusions can be made regarding the most effective adaptation options. Further efforts are needed to improve modeling of the monsoon system and to better quantify the uncertainty in its changes under a warmer climate, in the response of the crops to such changes and in the potential for adaptation.

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India

PubMed Central

Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A.

2018-01-01

Abstract Decision‐Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi‐method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder‐identified decision‐critical metrics are examined: a basin‐wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade‐offs emerge between intrabasin and basin‐wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long‐term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision‐making under deep uncertainty. PMID:29706676

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India.

PubMed

Bhave, Ajay Gajanan; Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A

2018-02-01

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi-method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder-identified decision-critical metrics are examined: a basin-wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade-offs emerge between intrabasin and basin-wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long-term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision-making under deep uncertainty.

Water Resource Planning Under Future Climate and Socioeconomic Uncertainty in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhave, Ajay Gajanan; Conway, Declan; Dessai, Suraje; Stainforth, David A.

2018-02-01

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty (DMUU) approaches have been less utilized in developing countries than developed countries for water resources contexts. High climate vulnerability and rapid socioeconomic change often characterize developing country contexts, making DMUU approaches relevant. We develop an iterative multi-method DMUU approach, including scenario generation, coproduction with stakeholders and water resources modeling. We apply this approach to explore the robustness of adaptation options and pathways against future climate and socioeconomic uncertainties in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka, India. A water resources model is calibrated and validated satisfactorily using observed streamflow. Plausible future changes in Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) precipitation and water demand are used to drive simulations of water resources from 2021 to 2055. Two stakeholder-identified decision-critical metrics are examined: a basin-wide metric comprising legal instream flow requirements for the downstream state of Tamil Nadu, and a local metric comprising water supply reliability to Bangalore city. In model simulations, the ability to satisfy these performance metrics without adaptation is reduced under almost all scenarios. Implementing adaptation options can partially offset the negative impacts of change. Sequencing of options according to stakeholder priorities into Adaptation Pathways affects metric satisfaction. Early focus on agricultural demand management improves the robustness of pathways but trade-offs emerge between intrabasin and basin-wide water availability. We demonstrate that the fine balance between water availability and demand is vulnerable to future changes and uncertainty. Despite current and long-term planning challenges, stakeholders in developing countries may engage meaningfully in coproduction approaches for adaptation decision-making under deep uncertainty.

76 FR 7614 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; Chicago Board Options Exchange, Incorporated; Notice of Filing and...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-02-10

... of orderly markets by helping to mitigate the potential risks associated with legging stock option... orderly markets by helping to mitigate the potential risks associated with legging stock option orders, e... markets by helping to mitigate potential risks associated with the legging of stock-option orders...

Preparing the Dutch delta for future droughts: model based support in the national Delta Programme

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ter Maat, Judith; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; van der Vat, Marnix; Hunink, Joachim; Prinsen, Geert; Visser, Martijn

2014-05-01

Keywords: uncertainty, policymaking, adaptive policies, fresh water management, droughts, Netherlands, Dutch Deltaprogramme, physically-based complex model, theory-motivated meta-model To prepare the Dutch Delta for future droughts and water scarcity, a nation-wide 4-year project, called Delta Programme, is established to assess impacts of climate scenarios and socio-economic developments and to explore policy options. The results should contribute to a national adaptive plan that is able to adapt to future uncertain conditions, if necessary. For this purpose, we followed a model-based step-wise approach, wherein both physically-based complex models and theory-motivated meta-models were used. First step (2010-2011) was to make a quantitative problem description. This involved a sensitivity analysis of the water system for drought situations under current and future conditions. The comprehensive Dutch national hydrological instrument was used for this purpose and further developed. Secondly (2011-2012) our main focus was on making an inventory of potential actions together with stakeholders. We assessed efficacy, sell-by date of actions, and reassessed vulnerabilities and opportunities for the future water supply system if actions were (not) taken. A rapid assessment meta-model was made based on the complex model. The effects of all potential measures were included in the tool. Thirdly (2012-2013), with support of the rapid assessment model, we assessed the efficacy of policy actions over time for an ensemble of possible futures including sea level rise and climate and land use change. Last step (2013-2014) involves the selection of preferred actions from a set of promising actions that meet the defined objectives. These actions are all modeled and evaluated using the complex model. The outcome of the process will be an adaptive management plan. The adaptive plan describes a set of preferred policy pathways - sequences of policy actions - to achieve targets under changing conditions. The plan commits to short term actions, and identifies signpost indicators and trigger values to assess if next actions of the identified policy pathways need to be implemented or if reassessment of the plan is needed. For example, river discharges could be measured to monitor changes in low discharges as a result of climate change, and assess whether policy options such as diverting more water the main fresh water lake (IJsselmeer) need to be implemented sooner or later or not at all. The adaptive plan of the Delta Programme will be presented in 2014. First lessons of this part of the Delta Programme can already be drawn: Both the complex and meta-model had its own purpose in each phase. The meta-model was particularly useful for identifying promising policy options and for consultation of stakeholders due to the instant response. The complex model had much more opportunities to assess impacts of regional policy actions, and was supported by regional stakeholders that recognized their areas better in this model. Different sector impact assessment modules are also included in the workflow of the complex model. However, the complex model has a long runtime (i.e. three days for 1 year simulation or more than 100 days for 35 year time series simulation), which makes it less suitable to support the dynamic policy process on instant demand and interactively.

Impacts of climate change on rice production in Africa and causes of simulated yield changes.

PubMed

van Oort, Pepijn A J; Zwart, Sander J

2018-03-01

This study is the first of its kind to quantify possible effects of climate change on rice production in Africa. We simulated impacts on rice in irrigated systems (dry season and wet season) and rainfed systems (upland and lowland). We simulated the use of rice varieties with a higher temperature sum as adaptation option. We simulated rice yields for 4 RCP climate change scenarios and identified causes of yield declines. Without adaptation, shortening of the growing period due to higher temperatures had a negative impact on yields (-24% in RCP 8.5 in 2070 compared with the baseline year 2000). With varieties that have a high temperature sum, the length of the growing period would remain the same as under the baseline conditions. With this adaptation option rainfed rice yields would increase slightly (+8%) but they remain subject to water availability constraints. Irrigated rice yields in East Africa would increase (+25%) due to more favourable temperatures and due to CO2 fertilization. Wet season irrigated rice yields in West Africa were projected to change by -21% or +7% (without/with adaptation). Without adaptation irrigated rice yields in West Africa in the dry season would decrease by -45% with adaptation they would decrease significantly less (-15%). The main cause of this decline was reduced photosynthesis at extremely high temperatures. Simulated heat sterility hardly increased and was not found a major cause for yield decline. The implications for these findings are as follows. For East Africa to benefit from climate change, improved water and nutrient management will be needed to benefit fully from the more favourable temperatures and increased CO2 concentrations. For West Africa, more research is needed on photosynthesis processes at extreme temperatures and on adaptation options such as shifting sowing dates. © 2017 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Laser-driven beam lines for delivering intensity modulated radiation therapy with particle beams

PubMed Central

Hofmann, Kerstin M; Schell, Stefan; Wilkens, Jan J

2012-01-01

Abstract Laser-accelerated particles are a promising option for radiation therapy of cancer by potentially combining a compact, cost-efficient treatment unit with the physical advantages of charged particle beams. To design such a treatment unit we consider different dose delivery schemes and analyze the necessary devices in the required particle beam line for each case. Furthermore, we point out that laser-driven treatment units may be ideal tools for motion adaptation during radiotherapy. Reasons for this are the potential of a flexible gantry and the time structure of the beam with high particle numbers in ultrashort bunches. One challenge that needs to be addressed is the secondary radiation produced in several beam line elements. (© 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim) PMID:22930653

Percept User Manual.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Carnes, Brian; Kennon, Stephen Ray

2017-05-01

This document is the main user guide for the Sierra/Percept capabilities including the mesh_adapt and mesh_transfer tools. Basic capabilities for uniform mesh refinement (UMR) and mesh transfers are discussed. Examples are used to provide illustration. Future versions of this manual will include more advanced features such as geometry and mesh smoothing. Additionally, all the options for the mesh_adapt code will be described in detail. Capabilities for local adaptivity in the context of offline adaptivity will also be included. This page intentionally left blank.

Moving towards ecosystem-based fisheries management: Options for parameterizing multi-species biological reference points

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moffitt, Elizabeth A.; Punt, André E.; Holsman, Kirstin; Aydin, Kerim Y.; Ianelli, James N.; Ortiz, Ivonne

2016-12-01

Multi-species models can improve our understanding of the effects of fishing so that it is possible to make informed and transparent decisions regarding fishery impacts. Broad application of multi-species assessment models to support ecosystem-based fisheries management (EBFM) requires the development and testing of multi-species biological reference points (MBRPs) for use in harvest-control rules. We outline and contrast several possible MBRPs that range from those that can be readily used in current frameworks to those belonging to a broader EBFM context. We demonstrate each of the possible MBRPs using a simple two species model, motivated by walleye pollock (Gadus chalcogrammus) and Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) in the eastern Bering Sea, to illustrate differences among methods. The MBRPs we outline each differ in how they approach the multiple, potentially conflicting management objectives and trade-offs of EBFM. These options for MBRPs allow multi-species models to be readily adapted for EBFM across a diversity of management mandates and approaches.

Changes in Ecosystem Services and related Livelihoods in the Mekong Delta: vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebesvari, Z.; Renaud, F. G.

2014-12-01

The Mekong Delta (Vietnam) is highly vulnerable to the many impacts of global environmental change as well as to the accelerating anthropogenic changes in the catchment and in the delta itself. Today the delta is an agricultural landscape controlled by engineering structures such as channels, dykes, embankments, and sluice gates. These structures have been constructed gradually over the last 200 years mainly for irrigation and flood control in the upper part of the delta and to control saline intrusion in the coastal areas. Recent changes in the hydrology mainly driven by upstream hydropower development on the mainstream and the tributaries of the Mekong will likely have far reaching impacts on the delta´s social-ecological systems through changes in e.g. sedimentation processes, nutrient transport as well as the health of aquatic ecosystems. Further threats to the delta include sea level rise and an increase in seasonal rainfall variability leading to an increase in flood variability. These changes affect the lives of millions of low-income inhabitants who depend on the ecosystem services provided by the Mekong for their livelihoods and sustenance. Since the changes in ecosystem service provision are occurring relatively fast while the resource dependency of the delta population is very high, adaptation becomes a challenge. An assessment of livelihood dependencies on ecosystem services requires an understanding of ecosystem services affected by different drivers of change, as well as of the types of livelihoods likely to be jeopardized as a result of these changes. We will present main ecosystem services supporting specific livelihoods, discuss how they are threatened, and analyse the merits of potential solutions. Options based solely on grey infrastructure might be problematic on the long term while an integration of ecosystem based solution such as a (re)adaptation of agricultural production systems to floods in the upper delta might be a more sustainable option. As the importance of policy interventions was demonstrated for the region, we argue that adaptation to climate change needs to be facilitated by policies embedded in a more flexible and adaptive agricultural development plan for the delta also considering no regret ecosystem based solutions with additional benefits for livelihoods.

43 CFR 46.145 - Using adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... 46.145 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NATIONAL... implementation decisions. The NEPA analysis conducted in the context of an adaptive management approach should identify the range of management options that may be taken in response to the results of monitoring and...

43 CFR 46.145 - Using adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... 46.145 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NATIONAL... implementation decisions. The NEPA analysis conducted in the context of an adaptive management approach should identify the range of management options that may be taken in response to the results of monitoring and...

43 CFR 46.145 - Using adaptive management.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... 46.145 Public Lands: Interior Office of the Secretary of the Interior IMPLEMENTATION OF THE NATIONAL... implementation decisions. The NEPA analysis conducted in the context of an adaptive management approach should identify the range of management options that may be taken in response to the results of monitoring and...

Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: An Introduction to Psychosocial and Behavioral Adaptations.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoffman, R. Leigh; Decker, Thomas W.

1993-01-01

Defines amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) as motor-neuron disease that is terminal. Discusses symptoms associated with ALS and identifies treatment options. Reviews psychological and behavioral adaptations in regard to ALS clients, their families, and professionals who work with them. Discusses support groups as method of reducing stress for ALS…

Climate change adaptation and mitigation options a guide for natural resource managers in southern forest ecosystems

Treesearch

James M. Vose; Kier D. Klepzig

2014-01-01

The rapid pace of climate change and its direct and indirect effects on forest ecosystems present a pressing need for better scientific understanding and the development of new science-management partnerships. Understanding the effects of stressors and disturbances (including climatic variability), and developing and testing science-based management options to deal...

National Forest management options in response to climate change

Treesearch

Forest Service U.S. Department of Agriculture

2009-01-01

The effect of climate change on ecosystem structure, function, and services will depend on the ecosystem's degree of sensitivity to climate change, the natural ability of plants and animals to adapt, and the availability of effective management options. Sensitivity to climate change is a function of ecosystem health and environmental stresses such as air pollution...

Adaptive management for a turbulent future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig R.; Fontaine, J.J.; Pope, K.L.; Garmestani, A.S.

2011-01-01

The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate learning into management. ?? 2010 .

Adaptive Management for a Turbulent Future

USGS Publications Warehouse

Allen, Craig R.; Fontaine, Joseph J.; Pope, Kevin L.; Garmestani, Ahjond S.

2011-01-01

The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate learning into management. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

PubMed

Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

2017-12-15

Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adapting the coping in deliberation (CODE) framework: a multi-method approach in the context of familial ovarian cancer risk management.

PubMed

Witt, Jana; Elwyn, Glyn; Wood, Fiona; Rogers, Mark T; Menon, Usha; Brain, Kate

2014-11-01

To test whether the coping in deliberation (CODE) framework can be adapted to a specific preference-sensitive medical decision: risk-reducing bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) in women at increased risk of ovarian cancer. We performed a systematic literature search to identify issues important to women during deliberations about RRSO. Three focus groups with patients (most were pre-menopausal and untested for genetic mutations) and 11 interviews with health professionals were conducted to determine which issues mattered in the UK context. Data were used to adapt the generic CODE framework. The literature search yielded 49 relevant studies, which highlighted various issues and coping options important during deliberations, including mutation status, risks of surgery, family obligations, physician recommendation, peer support and reliable information sources. Consultations with UK stakeholders confirmed most of these factors as pertinent influences on deliberations. Questions in the generic framework were adapted to reflect the issues and coping options identified. The generic CODE framework was readily adapted to a specific preference-sensitive medical decision, showing that deliberations and coping are linked during deliberations about RRSO. Adapted versions of the CODE framework may be used to develop tailored decision support methods and materials in order to improve patient-centred care. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adapting to the impacts of climate change on food security among Inuit in the Western Canadian Arctic.

PubMed

Wesche, Sonia D; Chan, Hing Man

2010-09-01

This study examined critical impacts of climate change on Inuit diet and nutritional health in four Inuit communities in the Inuvialuit Settlement Region, Western Arctic, Canada. The first objective was to combine data from community observation studies and dietary interview studies to determine potential climate change impacts on nutritional quality. The second objective was to address the scale of data collection and/or availability to compare local versus regional trends, and identify implications for adaptation planning. Information was compiled from 5 reports (4 community reports and 1 synthesis report) of climate change observations, impacts and adaptations in 12 Inuit communities (2005-2006), and from a dietary report of food use from 18 Inuit communities (1997-2000). Changing access to, availability of, quality of, and ability to use traditional food resources has implications for quality of diet. Nutritional implications of lower traditional food use include likely reductions in iron, zinc, protein, vitamin D, and omega-3 fatty acids, among others. The vulnerability of each community to changing food security is differentially influenced by a range of factors, including current harvesting trends, levels of reliance on individual species, opportunities for access to other traditional food species, and exposure to climate change hazards. Understanding linkages between climate change and traditional food security provides a basis for strengthening adaptive capacity and determining effective adaptation options to respond to future change.

Gender and occupational perspectives on adaptation to climate extremes in the Afram Plains of Ghana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Codjoe, Samuel N.A.; Atidoh, Lucy K.; Burkett, Virginia

2012-01-01

Although sub-Saharan Africa does not contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, significant adverse impacts of climate change are anticipated in this region. Countries in West Africa, which are heavily dependent on rain-fed agriculture, are projected to experience more frequent and intense droughts, altered rainfall patterns and increases in temperature through the end of this century. Changes in hydrology and temperature are likely to affect crop yields, thereby placing pressure on scarce resources in a region that is characterised by limited social, political, technical and financial resources. The success with which communities cope with the impacts of climate change is influenced by existing conditions, forces and characteristics which are peculiar to each of these communities. This paper assesses the preferred adaptation strategies during floods and droughts of males and females in three different occupations (farming, fishing, and charcoal production). Findings are based upon an analysis of focus group discussions and a ranking of preferred adaptation options in three communities in the Afram Plains of Ghana. Assessments of this nature should aid in the selection and implementation of adaptation options for communities and households, which is the level at which climate change adaptation is likely to occur in West Africa.

Climate change and health in Israel: adaptation policies for extreme weather events

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Climatic changes have increased the world-wide frequency of extreme weather events such as heat waves, cold spells, floods, storms and droughts. These extreme events potentially affect the health status of millions of people, increasing disease and death. Since mitigation of climate change is a long and complex process, emphasis has recently been placed on the measures required for adaptation. Although the principles underlying these measures are universal, preparedness plans and policies need to be tailored to local conditions. In this paper, we conducted a review of the literature on the possible health consequences of extreme weather events in Israel, where the conditions are characteristic of the Mediterranean region. Strong evidence indicates that the frequency and duration of several types of extreme weather events are increasing in the Mediterranean Basin, including Israel. We examined the public health policy implications for adaptation to climate change in the region, and proposed public health adaptation policy options. Preparedness for the public health impact of increased extreme weather events is still relatively limited and clear public health policies are urgently needed. These include improved early warning and monitoring systems, preparedness of the health system, educational programs and the living environment. Regional collaboration should be a priority. PMID:23805950

Flexibility in Flood Management Design: Proactive Planning Under Climate Change Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smet, K.; de Neufville, R.; van der Vlist, M.

2015-12-01

This paper presents an innovative, value-enhancing procedure for effective planning and design of long-lived flood management infrastructure given uncertain future flooding threats due to climate change. Designing infrastructure that can be adapted over time is a method to safeguard the efficacy of current design decisions given uncertainty about rates and future impacts of climate change. This paper explores the value of embedding "options" in a physical structure, where an option is the right but not the obligation to do something at a later date (e.g. over-dimensioning a floodwall foundation now facilitates a future height addition in response to observed increases in sea level; building of extra pump bays in a pumping station now enables the addition of pumping capacity whenever increased precipitation warrants an expansion.) The proposed procedure couples a simulation model that captures future climate induced changes to the hydrologic operating environment of a structure, with an economic model that estimates the lifetime economic performance of alternative investments. The economic model uses Real "In" Options analysis, a type of cash flow analysis that quantifies the implicit value of options and the flexibility they provide. This procedure is demonstrated using replacement planning for the multi-functional pumping station IJmuiden on the North Sea Canal in the Netherlands. Flexibility in design decisions is modelled, varying the size and specific options included in the new structure. Results indicate that the incorporation of options within the structural design has the potential to improve its economic performance, as compared to more traditional, "build it once and build it big" designs where flexibility is not an explicit design criterion. The added value resulting from the incorporation of flexibility varies with the range of future conditions considered, as well as the options examined. This procedure could be applied more broadly to explore investment strategies for the design of other flood management structures.

Flexibility in flood management design: proactive planning under uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smet, K.; de Neufville, R.; van der Vlist, M.

2016-12-01

This paper presents a value-enhancing approach for proactive planning and design of long-lived flood management infrastructure given uncertain future flooding threats. Designing infrastructure that can be adapted over time is a method to safeguard the efficacy of current design decisions given future uncertainties. We explore the value of embedding "options" in a physical structure, where an option is the right but not the obligation to do something at a later date (e.g. over-dimensioning a floodwall foundation now facilitates a future height addition in response to observed increases in sea level; building extra pump bays in a drainage pumping station enables the easy addition of pumping capacity whenever increased precipitation warrants an expansion.) The proposed approach couples a simulation model that captures future climate induced changes to the hydrologic operating environment of a structure, with an economic model that estimates the lifetime economic performance of alternative investment strategies. The economic model uses Real "In" Options analysis, a type of cash flow analysis that quantifies the implicit value of options and the flexibility they provide. We demonstrate the approach using replacement planning for the multi-functional pumping station IJmuiden on the North Sea Canal in the Netherlands. The analysis models flexibility in design decisions, varying the size and specific options included in the new structure. Results indicate that the incorporation of options within the structural design has the potential to improve its economic performance, as compared to more traditional, "build it once and build it big" designs where flexibility is not an explicit design criterion. The added value resulting from the incorporation of flexibility varies with the range of future conditions considered, and the specific options examined. This approach could be applied to explore investment strategies for the design of other flood management structures, as well as be expanded to look more at flexibility within an infrastructure network rather than a single structure. Flexibility in flood management design:proactive planning under uncertainty

Executive summary

Treesearch

Susan H. Julius; Jordan M. West; Geoffrey M. Blate; Jill S. Baron; Brad Griffith; Linda A. Joyce; Peter Kareiva; Brian D. Keller; Margaret A. Palmer; Charles H. Peterson; J. Michael Scott

2008-01-01

This report provides a preliminary review of adaptation options for climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources in the United States. The term “adaptation” in this document refers to adjustments in human social systems (e.g., management) in response to climate stimuli and their effects. Since management always occurs in the context of desired ecosystem conditions or...

U.S. National forests adapt to climate change through science-management partnerships

Treesearch

Jeremy S. Littell; David L. Peterson; Constance I. Millar; Kathy A. O' Halloran

2011-01-01

Developing appropriate management options for adapting to climate change is a new challenge for land managers, and integration of climate change concepts into operational management and planning on United States national forests is just starting. We established science-management partnerships on the Olympic National Forest (Washington) and Tahoe National Forest (...

Item Pocket Method to Allow Response Review and Change in Computerized Adaptive Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Han, Kyung T.

2013-01-01

Most computerized adaptive testing (CAT) programs do not allow test takers to review and change their responses because it could seriously deteriorate the efficiency of measurement and make tests vulnerable to manipulative test-taking strategies. Several modified testing methods have been developed that provide restricted review options while…

Operational approaches to managing forests of the future in Mediterranean regions within a context of changing climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephens, Scott L.; Millar, Constance I.; Collins, Brandon M.

2010-04-01

Many US forest managers have used historical ecology information to assist in the development of desired conditions. While there are many important lessons to learn from the past, we believe that we cannot rely on past forest conditions to provide us with blueprints for future management. To respond to this uncertainty, managers will be challenged to integrate adaptation strategies into plans in response to changing climates. Adaptive strategies include resistance options, resilience options, response options, and realignment options. Our objectives are to present ideas that could be useful in developing plans under changing climates that could be applicable to forests with Mediterranean climates. We believe that managing for species persistence at the broad ecoregion scale is the most appropriate goal when considering the effects of changing climates. Such a goal relaxes expectations that current species ranges will remain constant, or that population abundances, distribution, species compositions and dominances should remain stable. Allowing fundamental ecosystem processes to operate within forested landscapes will be critical. Management and political institutions will have to acknowledge and embrace uncertainty in the future since we are moving into a time period with few analogs and inevitably, there will be surprises.

Ventromedial prefrontal and anterior cingulate cortex adopt choice and default reference frames during sequential multialternative choice

PubMed Central

Boorman, Erie D; Rushworth, Matthew F; Behrens, Tim E

2013-01-01

Although damage to medial frontal cortex causes profound decision-making impairments, it has been difficult to pinpoint the relative contributions of key anatomical subdivisions. Here we use fMRI to examine the contributions of human ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) and dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) during sequential choices between multiple alternatives – two key features of choices made in ecological settings. By carefully constructing options whose current value at any given decision was dissociable from their longer-term value, we were able to examine choices in current and long-term frames of reference. We present evidence showing that activity at choice and feedback in vmPFC and dACC was tied to the current choice and the best long-term option, respectively. vmPFC, mid-cingulate, and PCC encoded the relative value between the chosen and next-best option at each sequential decision, whereas dACC encoded the relative value of adapting choices from the option with the highest value in the longer-term. Furthermore, at feedback we identify temporally dissociable effects that predict repetition of the current choice and adaptation away from the long-term best option in vmPFC and dACC, respectively. These functional dissociations at choice and feedback suggest that sequential choices are subject to competing cortical mechanisms. PMID:23392656

Enhancing protection for vulnerable waters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Creed, Irena F.; Lane, Charles R.; Serran, Jacqueline N.; Alexander, Laurie C.; Basu, Nandita B.; Calhoun, Aram J. K.; Christensen, Jay R.; Cohen, Matthew J.; Craft, Christopher; D'Amico, Ellen; Dekeyser, Edward; Fowler, Laurie; Golden, Heather E.; Jawitz, James W.; Kalla, Peter; Kirkman, L. Katherine; Lang, Megan; Leibowitz, Scott G.; Lewis, David B.; Marton, John; McLaughlin, Daniel L.; Raanan-Kiperwas, Hadas; Rains, Mark C.; Rains, Kai C.; Smith, Lora

2017-11-01

Governments worldwide do not adequately protect their limited freshwater systems and therefore place freshwater functions and attendant ecosystem services at risk. The best available scientific evidence compels enhanced protections for freshwater systems, especially for impermanent streams and wetlands outside of floodplains that are particularly vulnerable to alteration or destruction. New approaches to freshwater sustainability -- implemented through scientifically informed adaptive management -- are required to protect freshwater systems through periods of changing societal needs. One such approach introduced in the US in 2015 is the Clean Water Rule, which clarified the jurisdictional scope for federally protected waters. However, within hours of its implementation litigants convinced the US Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit to stay the rule, and the subsequently elected administration has now placed it under review for potential revision or rescission. Regardless of its outcome at the federal level, policy and management discussions initiated by the propagation of this rare rulemaking event have potential far-reaching implications at all levels of government across the US and worldwide. At this timely juncture, we provide a scientific rationale and three policy options for all levels of government to meaningfully enhance protection of these vulnerable waters. A fourth option, a 'do-nothing' approach, is wholly inconsistent with the well-established scientific evidence of the importance of these vulnerable waters.

Prevalence and potential pathogenicity of Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Chinese mitten crabs (Eriocheir sinensis) harvested from the River Thames estuary, England.

PubMed

Wagley, Sariqa; Koofhethile, Kegakilwe; Rangdale, Rachel

2009-01-01

Chinese mitten crabs (Eriocheir sinensis) have been described as an alien invasive species in the River Thames, United Kingdom, and elsewhere in Europe. The crabs can cause considerable physical damage to the riverbeds and threaten native ecosystems. Trapping has been considered an option, but such attempts to control mitten crab populations in Germany in the 1930s failed. In the United Kingdom, it has been suggested that commercial exploitation of the species could be employed as a control option. This study was conducted as part of a larger program to assess the suitability of a commercial Chinese mitten crab fishery in the River Thames. Crabs and water samples from the River Thames between 2003 and 2006 were examined for the human pathogenic bacterium Vibrio parahaemolyticus. All samples throughout this testing period were positive for V. parahaemolyticus. The putative pathogenicity markers, thermostable direct hemolysin and thermostable direct-related hemolysin, were detected in one sample, indicating that the crabs possessed the potential to cause V. parahaemolyticus-associated illness if consumed without further processing. Levels of V. parahaemolyticus were higher during the summer than in the winter. This is the first study of V. parahaemolyticus prevalence in European-adapted Chinese mitten crabs.

Assessment of adaptation measures to high-mountain risks in Switzerland under climate uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muccione, Veruska; Lontzek, Thomas; Huggel, Christian; Ott, Philipp; Salzmann, Nadine

2015-04-01

The economic evaluation of different adaptation options is important to support policy-makers that need to set priorities in the decision-making process. However, the decision-making process faces considerable uncertainties regarding current and projected climate impacts. First, physical climate and related impact systems are highly complex and not fully understood. Second, the further we look into the future, the more important the emission pathways become, with effects on the frequency and severity of climate impacts. Decision on adaptation measures taken today and in the future must be able to adequately consider the uncertainties originating from the different sources. Decisions are not taken in a vacuum but always in the context of specific social, economic, institutional and political conditions. Decision finding processes strongly depend on the socio-political system and usually have evolved over some time. Finding and taking decisions in the respective socio-political and economic context multiplies the uncertainty challenge. Our presumption is that a sound assessment of the different adaptation options in Switzerland under uncertainty necessitates formulating and solving a dynamic, stochastic optimization problem. Economic optimization models in the field of climate change are not new. Typically, such models are applied for global-scale studies but barely for local-scale problems. In this analysis, we considered the case of the Guttannen-Grimsel Valley, situated in the Swiss Bernese Alps. The alpine community has been affected by high-magnitude, high-frequency debris flows that started in 2009 and were historically unprecendented. They were related to thaw of permafrost in the rock slopes of Ritzlihorn and repeated rock fall events that accumulated at the debris fan and formed a sediment source for debris flows and were transported downvalley. An important transit road, a trans-European gas pipeline and settlements were severely affected and partly destroyed. Several adaptation measures were discussed by the responsible authorities but decision making is particularly challenging under multiple uncertainties. For this area, we developed a stochastic optimization model for concrete and real-case adaptation options and measures and use dynamic programming to explore the optimal adaptation decisions under uncertainty in face of uncertain impacts from climate change of debris flows and flooding. Even though simplification needed to be made the results produced were concrete and tangible, indicating that excavation is a preferable adaptation option based on our assumption and modeling in comparison to building a dam or relocation, which is not necessarily intuitive and adds an additional perspective to what has so far been sketched and evaluated by cantonal and communal authorities for Guttannen. Moreover, the building of an alternative cantonal road appears to be more expensive than costs incurring due to road closure.

The order of information processing alters economic gain-loss framing effects.

PubMed

Kwak, Youngbin; Huettel, Scott

2018-01-01

Adaptive decision making requires analysis of available information during the process of choice. In many decisions that information is presented visually - which means that variations in visual properties (e.g., salience, complexity) can potentially influence the process of choice. In the current study, we demonstrate that variation in the left-right positioning of risky and safe decision options can influence the canonical gain-loss framing effect. Two experiments were conducted using an economic framing task in which participants chose between gambles and certain outcomes. The first experiment demonstrated that the magnitude of the gain-loss framing effect was greater when the certain option signaling the current frame was presented on the left side of the visual display. Eye-tracking data during task performance showed a left-gaze bias for initial fixations, suggesting that the option presented on the left side was processed first. Combination of eye-tracking and choice data revealed that there was a significant effect of direction of first gaze (i.e. left vs. right) as well as an interaction between gaze direction and identity of the first fixated information (i.e. certain vs. gamble) regardless of frame. A second experiment presented the gamble and certain options in a random order, with a temporal delay between their presentations. We found that the magnitude of gain-loss framing was larger when the certain option was presented first, regardless of left and right positioning, only in individuals with lower risk-taking tendencies. The effect of presentation order on framing was not present in high risk-takers. These results suggest that the sequence of visual information processing as well as their left-right positioning can bias choices by changing the impact of the presented information during risky decision making. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An adaptive community-based participatory approach to formative assessment with high schools for obesity intervention*.

PubMed

Kong, Alberta S; Farnsworth, Seth; Canaca, Jose A; Harris, Amanda; Palley, Gabriel; Sussman, Andrew L

2012-03-01

In the emerging debate around obesity intervention in schools, recent calls have been made for researchers to include local community opinions in the design of interventions. Community-based participatory research (CBPR) is an effective approach for forming community partnerships and integrating local opinions. We used CBPR principles to conduct formative research in identifying acceptable and potentially sustainable obesity intervention strategies in 8 New Mexico school communities. We collected formative data from 8 high schools on areas of community interest for school health improvement through collaboration with local School Health Advisory Councils (SHACs) and interviews with students and parents. A survey based on formative results was created to assess acceptability of specific intervention strategies and was provided to SHACs. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics while qualitative data were evaluated using an iterative analytic process for thematic identification. Key themes identified through the formative process included lack of healthy food options, infrequent curricular/extracurricular physical activity opportunities, and inadequate exposure to health/nutritional information. Key strategies identified as most acceptable by SHAC members included healthier food options and preparation, a healthy foods marketing campaign, yearly taste tests, an after-school noncompetitive physical activity program, and community linkages to physical activity opportunities. An adaptive CBPR approach for formative assessment can be used to identify obesity intervention strategies that address community school health concerns. Eight high school SHACs identified 6 school-based strategies to address parental and student concerns related to obesity. © 2012, American School Health Association.

Effectiveness of a confinement strategy for reducing campsite impacts in Shenandoah National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reid, S.E.; Marion, J.L.

2004-01-01

The expansion and proliferation of backcountry campsites is a persistent problem in many parks and protected areas. Shenandoah National Park (SNP) has one of the highest backcountry overnight use densities in the USA national parks system. SNP managers implemented a multi-option backcountry camping policy in 2000 that included camping containment with established campsites. These actions were intended to reduce the number of campsites and the area of camping disturbance at each site. This paper describes a longitudinal adaptive management assessment of the new campsite policies, applying quantitative measures of campsite conditions to evaluate the efficacy of management interventions. Physical campsite measurements combined with qualitative visitor interviews indicated SNP had successfully reduced the number of campsites and aggregate measures of camping-related disturbance in the Park, while minimizing the use of regulations, site facilities and staff resources. Implications for managers of other protected areas are that an established site camping policy can minimize camping disturbance, including the number and size of campsites, provided managers can sustain rehabilitation efforts to close and restore unneeded campsites. Experiential attributes, such as the potential for solitude, can also be manipulated through control over the selection of established campsites. Integrating resource and social science methods also provided a more holistic perspective on management policy assessments. Adaptive management research provided a timely evaluation of management success while facilitating effective modifications in response to unforeseen challenges. Conclusions regarding the effectiveness of a visitor impact containment strategy involving an established site camping option are offered.

An Adaptive Community-Based Participatory Approach to Formative Assessment With High Schools for Obesity Intervention*

PubMed Central

Kong, Alberta S.; Farnsworth, Seth; Canaca, Jose A.; Harris, Amanda; Palley, Gabriel; Sussman, Andrew L.

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND In the emerging debate around obesity intervention in schools, recent calls have been made for researchers to include local community opinions in the design of interventions. Community-based participatory research (CBPR) is an effective approach for forming community partnerships and integrating local opinions. We used CBPR principles to conduct formative research in identifying acceptable and potentially sustainable obesity intervention strategies in 8 New Mexico school communities. METHODS We collected formative data from 8 high schools on areas of community interest for school health improvement through collaboration with local School Health Advisory Councils (SHACs) and interviews with students and parents. A survey based on formative results was created to assess acceptability of specific intervention strategies and was provided to SHACs. Quantitative data were analyzed using descriptive statistics while qualitative data were evaluated using an iterative analytic process for thematic identification. RESULTS Key themes identified through the formative process included lack of healthy food options, infrequent curricular/extracurricular physical activity opportunities, and inadequate exposure to health/nutritional information. Key strategies identified as most acceptable by SHAC members included healthier food options and preparation, a healthy foods marketing campaign, yearly taste tests, an after-school noncompetitive physical activity program, and community linkages to physical activity opportunities. CONCLUSION An adaptive CBPR approach for formative assessment can be used to identify obesity intervention strategies that address community school health concerns. Eight high school SHACs identified 6 school-based strategies to address parental and student concerns related to obesity. PMID:22320339

The Application of the Real Options Method for the Evaluation of High-Rise Construction Projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Izotov, Aleksandr; Rostova, Olga; Dubgorn, Alissa

2018-03-01

The paper is devoted to the problem of evaluation of high-rise construction projects in a rapidly changing environment. The authors proposed an algorithm for constructing and embedding real options in high-rise construction projects, which makes it possible to increase the flexibility of managing multi-stage projects that have the ability to adapt to changing conditions of implementation.

Zap 'Em with Assistive Technology: Notetaking, Modified Materials, Assistive Writing Tools, References, Organizational Tools, Cognitive Assistance, Adapted Access.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lahm, Elizabeth A.; Morrissette, Sandra K.

This collection of materials describes different types of computer applications and software that can help students with disabilities. It contains information on: (1) Easy Access, a feature of the systems software on every Macintosh computer that allows use of the keypad instead of the mouse, options for slow keys, and options for sticky keys; (2)…

Project Proposals Evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Encheva, Sylvia; Tumin, Sharil

2009-08-01

Collaboration among various firms has been traditionally used trough single project joint ventures for bonding purposes. Eventhough the performed work is usually beneficial to some extend to all participants, the type of collaboration option to be adapted is strongly influenced by overall purposes and goals that can be achieved. In order to facilitate a choice of collaboration option best suited to a firm's need a computer based model is proposed.

Dangerous climate change and the importance of adaptation for the Arctic's Inuit population

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ford, James D.

2009-04-01

The Arctic's climate is changing rapidly, to the extent that 'dangerous' climate change as defined by the United Nations Framework on Climate Change might already be occurring. These changes are having implications for the Arctic's Inuit population and are being exacerbated by the dependence of Inuit on biophysical resources for livelihoods and the low socio-economic-health status of many northern communities. Given the nature of current climate change and projections of a rapidly warming Arctic, climate policy assumes a particular importance for Inuit regions. This paper argues that efforts to stabilize and reduce greenhouse gas emissions are urgent if we are to avoid runaway climate change in the Arctic, but unlikely to prevent changes which will be dangerous for Inuit. In this context, a new policy discourse on climate change is required for Arctic regions—one that focuses on adaptation. The paper demonstrates that states with Inuit populations and the international community in general has obligations to assist Inuit to adapt to climate change through international human rights and climate change treaties. However, the adaptation deficit, in terms of what we know and what we need to know to facilitate successful adaptation, is particularly large in an Arctic context and limiting the ability to develop response options. Moreover, adaptation as an option of response to climate change is still marginal in policy negotiations and Inuit political actors have been slow to argue the need for adaptation assistance. A new focus on adaptation in both policy negotiations and scientific research is needed to enhance Inuit resilience and reduce vulnerability in a rapidly changing climate.

Autotransplantation of a maxillary third molar to replace a maxillary premolar with vertical root fracture.

PubMed

Tsurumachi, T; Kakehashi, Y

2007-12-01

To report the successful autotransplantation of a fully developed third molar that required nonsurgical and surgical interventions for tooth adaptation. This case report describes the autotransplantation of a third molar with complete root development after the loss of a fractured premolar in a 47-year-old male. To allow better adaptation of the donor tooth, the buccal roots of the third molar were removed using a diamond bur and the canal entrances were filled. Recall examination 6 years after completion of root-canal treatment showed normal periodontal healing with absence of infection, ankylosis or progressive resorption. The transplantation of a third molar is seen as a promising method to replace a lost permanent tooth, and to restore aesthetics and function. *Autotransplantation is a viable option for the treatment of a missing tooth or for replacement of traumatized tooth when there is a donor tooth available. *Fully developed third molars are potentially reliable candidates in the absence of other suitable donor teeth.

New trends in articular cartilage repair.

PubMed

Cucchiarini, Magali; Henrionnet, Christel; Mainard, Didier; Pinzano, Astrid; Madry, Henning

2015-12-01

Damage to the articular cartilage is an important, prevalent, and unsolved clinical issue for the orthopaedic surgeon. This review summarizes innovative basic research approaches that may improve the current understanding of cartilage repair processes and lead to novel therapeutic options. In this regard, new aspects of cartilage tissue engineering with a focus on the choice of the best-suited cell source are presented. The importance of non-destructive cartilage imaging is highlighted with the recent availability of adapted experimental tools such as Second Harmonic Generation (SHG) imaging. Novel insights into cartilage pathophysiology based on the involvement of the infrapatellar fat pad in osteoarthritis are also described. Also, recombinant adeno-associated viral vectors are discussed as clinically adapted, efficient tools for potential gene-based medicines in a variety of articular cartilage disorders. Taken as a whole, such advances in basic research in diverse fields of articular cartilage repair may lead to the development of improved therapies in the clinics for an improved, effective treatment of cartilage lesions in a close future.

Exploitation of manipulators: 'hitch-hiking' as a parasite transmission strategy.

PubMed

Thomas; Renaud; Poulin

1998-07-01

For many parasites with complex life cycles, manipulation of host behaviour is an adaptation to increase the probability of successful transmission. Since manipulation is likely to be costly, other parasites may exploit hosts already manipulated so as to ensure their transmission without investing in manipulation. Such a cheating strategy, called 'hitch-hiking', could be adaptive in a range of situations. We first propose and discuss criteria that should be met by any parasite to be considered a hitch-hiker. Then, to understand the evolution of the hitch-hiking strategy, we use simple mathematical models to analyse the influence of several variables on the potential benefits for a nonmanipulative parasite of actively seeking a ride to the definitive host with a manipulative parasite. The models suggest that the prevalence or abundance of manipulative parasites will be a key determinant of whether hitch-hiking can be an advantageous option for other parasites. Copyright 1998 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour.

Disturbance and productivity interactions mediate stability of forest composition and structure.

PubMed

O'Connor, Christopher D; Falk, Donald A; Lynch, Ann M; Swetnam, Thomas W; Wilcox, Craig P

2017-04-01

Fire is returning to many conifer-dominated forests where species composition and structure have been altered by fire exclusion. Ecological effects of these fires are influenced strongly by the degree of forest change during the fire-free period. Response of fire-adapted species assemblages to extended fire-free intervals is highly variable, even in communities with similar historical fire regimes. This variability in plant community response to fire exclusion is not well understood; however, ecological mechanisms such as individual species' adaptations to disturbance or competition and underlying site characteristics that facilitate or impede establishment and growth have been proposed as potential drivers of assemblage response. We used spatially explicit dendrochronological reconstruction of tree population dynamics and fire regimes to examine the influence of historical disturbance frequency (a proxy for adaptation to disturbance or competition), and potential site productivity (a proxy for underlying site characteristics) on the stability of forest composition and structure along a continuous ecological gradient of pine, dry mixed-conifer, mesic mixed-conifer, and spruce-fir forests following fire exclusion. While average structural density increased in all forests, species composition was relatively stable in the lowest productivity pine-dominated and highest productivity spruce-fir-dominated sites immediately following fire exclusion and for the next 100 years, suggesting site productivity as a primary control on species composition and structure in forests with very different historical fire regimes. Species composition was least stable on intermediate productivity sites dominated by mixed-conifer forests, shifting from primarily fire-adapted species to competition-adapted, fire-sensitive species within 20 years of fire exclusion. Rapid changes to species composition and stand densities have been interpreted by some as evidence of high-severity fire. We demonstrate that the very different ecological process of fire exclusion can produce similar changes by shifting selective pressures from disturbance-mediated to productivity-mediated controls. Restoring disturbance-adapted species composition and structure to intermediate productivity forests may help to buffer them against projected increasing temperatures, lengthening fire seasons, and more frequent and prolonged moisture stress. Fewer management options are available to promote adaptation in forest assemblages historically constrained by underlying site productivity. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

An adaptive environmental effects monitoring framework for assessing the influences of liquid effluents on benthos, water and sediments in aquatic receiving environments.

PubMed

Somers, Keith M; Kilgour, Bruce W; Munkittrick, Kelly R; Arciszewski, Tim J

2018-05-16

Environmental effects monitoring (EEM) has been traditionally used to evaluate the effects of existing facilities discharging liquid effluents into natural receiving waters in Canada. EEM also has the potential to provide feedback to an ongoing project in an adaptive management context, and can inform the design of future projects. EEM, consequently, can and should also be used to test the predictions of effects related to new projects. Despite EEM's potential for widespread applicability, challenges related to the effective implementation of EEM include the use of appropriate study designs, as well as to the adoption of tiers for increasing or decreasing monitoring intensity. Herein we describe a template for designing and implementing a six-tiered EEM program that utilizes information from the project-planning and pre-development baseline data collection stages to build on forecasts from the initial environmental impact assessment project-design stage, and feeds into an adaptive management process. Movement between the six EEM tiers is based on the exceedance of Baseline Monitoring Triggers, Forecast Triggers and Management Triggers at various stages in the EEM process. To distinguish these types of triggers, we review the historical development of numeric and narrative triggers as applied to chemical (water and sediment) and biological (plankton, benthos, fish) endpoints. We also provide an overview of historical study design issues and discuss how the six EEM tiers and associated triggers influence the temporal-spatial experimental design options and how the information gained through EEM could be used in an adaptive management context. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Beyond cool: adapting upland streams for climate change using riparian woodlands.

PubMed

Thomas, Stephen M; Griffiths, Siân W; Ormerod, Steve J

2016-01-01

Managed adaptation could reduce the risks of climate change to the world's ecosystems, but there have been surprisingly few practical evaluations of the options available. For example, riparian woodland is advocated widely as shade to reduce warming in temperate streams, but few studies have considered collateral effects on species composition or ecosystem functions. Here, we use cross-sectional analyses at two scales (region and within streams) to investigate whether four types of riparian management, including those proposed to reduce potential climate change impacts, might also affect the composition, functional character, dynamics and energetic resourcing of macroinvertebrates in upland Welsh streams (UK). Riparian land use across the region had only small effects on invertebrate taxonomic composition, while stable isotope data showed how energetic resources assimilated by macroinvertebrates in all functional guilds were split roughly 50:50 between terrestrial and aquatic origins irrespective of riparian management. Nevertheless, streams draining the most extensive deciduous woodland had the greatest stocks of coarse particulate matter (CPOM) and greater numbers of 'shredding' detritivores. Stream-scale investigations showed that macroinvertebrate biomass in deciduous woodland streams was around twice that in moorland streams, and lowest of all in streams draining non-native conifers. The unexpected absence of contrasting terrestrial signals in the isotopic data implies that factors other than local land use affect the relative incorporation of allochthonous subsidies into riverine food webs. Nevertheless, our results reveal how planting deciduous riparian trees along temperate headwaters as an adaptation to climate change can modify macroinvertebrate function, increase biomass and potentially enhance resilience by increasing basal resources where cover is extensive (>60 m riparian width). We advocate greater urgency in efforts to understand the ecosystem consequences of climate change adaptation to guide future actions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ecosystem and Food Security in a Changing Climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Field, C. B.

2011-12-01

Observed and projected impacts of climate change for ecosystem and food security tend to appear as changes in the risk of both desirable and undesirable outcomes. As a consequence, it is useful to frame the challenge of adaptation to a changing climate as a problem in risk management. For some kinds of impacts, the risks are relatively well characterized. For others, they are poorly known. Especially for the cases where the risks are poorly known, effective adaptation will need to consider approaches that build dynamic portfolios of options, based on learning from experience. Effective adaptation approaches also need to consider the risks of threshold-type responses, where opportunities for gradual adaptation based on learning may be limited. Finally, effective adaptation should build on the understanding that negative impacts on ecosystems and food security often result from extreme events, where a link to climate change may be unclear now and far into the future. Ecosystem and food security impacts that potentially require adaptation to a changing climate vary from region to region and interact strongly with actions not related to climate. In many ecosystems, climate change shifts the risk profile to increase risks of wildfire and biological invasions. Higher order risks from factors like pests and pathogens remain difficult to quantify. For food security, observational evidence highlights threshold-like behavior to high temperature in yields of a number of crops. But the risks to food security may be much broader, encompassing risks to availability of irrigation, degradation of topsoil, and challenges of storage and distribution. A risk management approach facilitates consideration of all these challenges with a unified framework.

An Integrated Framework to Analyze Local Decision Making and Adaptation to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Regions in Santos-Brazil, Broward County-USA and Selsey-UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marengo, J. A.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Pelling, M.; Reynolds, C. J.; Merril, S. B.; Nunes, L. H.; Paterson, S.; Gray, A.; Lockman, J. T.; Kartez, J.; Moreira, F.; Greco, R.; Harari, J.; Souza, C. G.; Alves, L. M.; Hosokawa, E.; Tabuchi, E.

2016-12-01

One of the clear signals of present climate change is sea level rise (SLR). There is mounting evidence of other changes, including warmer temperatures in many localities, and changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme meteorological events, including wind, rain, and waves. A rising sea level combined with these factors and tides is expected to affect coastal communities through a number of processes, including increased risk of flooding and contamination of water sources. An international collaboration between Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United States was designed to evaluate local decision making processes and to open convening space for local urban managers to reflect on possible actions toward adaption to SLR and the constraints imposed by framing administrative and institutional structures. The overall goal of the project is to help coastal communities better understand factors that facilitate or hinder their intrinsic, local decision-making processes related to planning for adaptation to risk. The project carried out these tests in 2014 and 2015 in one coastal city in each partnering nation. The framework was designed by an interdisciplinary team that incorporated social and natural scientists from these three nations, and which included local government officials. To support the overall goal, this paper 1) discusses some aspects of adaptive capacity and participant survey research conducted through the project, 2) presents technical modelling results for adaptation options that may reduce the potential damages of SLR and storm surge in each location, and 3) identifies project design considerations for similar transnational adaptation projects.

[Orophagyngeal Dysphagia in Older Persons - Evaluation and Therapeutic Options].

PubMed

Wirth, Rainer; Lueg, Gero; Dziewas, Rainer

2018-02-01

The prevalence of oropharyngeal dysphagia in older persons is high. Because it is frequently undetected, screening tests should be applied in risk groups. If the screening test is positive or typical risk factors are present, an instrumental assessment should be utilized. Objective diagnostic tools such as endoscopic evaluation and videofluoroscopy allow the description of the individual dysphagia pattern, which is the basis for an individualized treatment. The endoscopic evaluation of swallowing is increasingly used because it includes several advantages. Potential therapeutic strategies are multifaceted. The evidence for the effectiveness of adaptive, compensatory and rehabilitative strategies is growing, supporting the evolution of dysphagia therapy to an evidence based treatment. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Post-hospital medical respite care and hospital readmission of homeless persons.

PubMed

Kertesz, Stefan G; Posner, Michael A; O'Connell, James J; Swain, Stacy; Mullins, Ashley N; Shwartz, Michael; Ash, Arlene S

2009-01-01

Medical respite programs offer medical, nursing, and other care as well as accommodation for homeless persons discharged from acute hospital stays. They represent a community-based adaptation of urban health systems to the specific needs of homeless persons. This article examines whether post-hospital discharge to a homeless medical respite program was associated with a reduced chance of 90-day readmission compared to other disposition options. Adjusting for imbalances in patient characteristics using propensity scores, respite patients were the only group that was significantly less likely to be readmitted within 90 days compared to those released to Own Care. Respite programs merit attention as a potentially efficacious service for homeless persons leaving the hospital.

Post-Hospital Medical Respite Care and Hospital Readmission of Homeless Persons

PubMed Central

Kertesz, Stefan G.; Posner, Michael A.; O’Connell, James J.; Swain, Stacy; Mullins, Ashley N.; Michael, Shwartz; Ash, Arlene S.

2009-01-01

Medical respite programs offer medical, nursing, and other care as well as accommodation for homeless persons discharged from acute hospital stays. They represent a community-based adaptation of urban health systems to the specific needs of homeless persons. This paper examines whether post-hospital discharge to a homeless medical respite program was associated with a reduced chance of 90-day readmission compared to other disposition options. Adjusting for imbalances in patient characteristics using propensity scores, Respite patients were the only group that was significantly less likely to be readmitted within 90 days compared to those released to Own Care. Respite programs merit attention as a potentially efficacious service for homeless persons leaving the hospital. PMID:19363773

Reflective baffle for BepiColombo mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rugi-Grond, E.; Weigel, T.; Herren, A.; Dominguez Calvo, M.; Krähenbühl, U.; Mouricaud, D.; Vayssade, H.

2017-11-01

The BepiColombo Spacecraft can't tolerate to absorb a major fraction of the off-axis sunlight through larger payload apertures. Fortunately, there are solutions to design baffles such that they reflect the incoming radiation back through the front aperture rather than absorbing it. A Design Study, sponsored by ESA and performed by Contraves Space together with SAGEM Défense Securité, has analysed the potential of various solutions and assessed the options to manufacture them. The selected configuration has been analysed in detail for the optical, mechanical and thermal performance as well as the impact on mass and power dissipation. The size of the baffle was adapted to the needs of the BepiColombo Laser Altimeter (BELA) payload.

Maximizing effectiveness of adaptation action in Pacific Island communities using coastal wave attenuation models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, H.; Carruthers, T.; Allison, M. A.; Weathers, D.; Moss, L.; Timmermans, H.

2017-12-01

Pacific Island communities are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change, specifically accelerating rates of sea level rise, changes to storm intensity and associated rainfall patterns resulting in flooding and shoreline erosion. Nature-based adaptation is being planned not only to reduce the risk from shoreline erosion, but also to support benefits of a healthy ecosystem (e.g., supporting fisheries or coral reefs). In order to assess potential effectiveness of the nature-based actions to dissipate wave energy, two-dimensional X-Beach models were developed to predict the wave attenuation effect of coastal adaptation actions at the pilot sites—the villages of Naselesele and Somosomo on Taveuni island, Fiji. Both sites are experiencing serious shoreline erosion due to sea level rise and storm wave. The water depth (single-beam bathymetry), land elevation (truck-based LiDAR), and vegetation data including stem density and height were collected in both locations in a June 2017 field experiment. Wave height and water velocity were also measured for the model setup and calibration using a series of bottom-mounted instruments deployed in the 0-15 m water depth portions of the study grid. The calibrated model will be used to evaluate a range of possible adaptation actions identified by the community members of Naselesele and Somosomo. Particularly, multiple storm scenario runs with management-relevant shoreline restoration/adaptation options will be implemented to evaluate efficiencies of each adaptation action (e.g., no action, with additional planted trees, with sand mining, with seawalls constructed with natural materials, etc.). These model results will help to better understand how proposed adaption actions may influence future shoreline change and maximize benefits to communities in island nations across the SW Pacific.

Real options valuation in the design of Future surface combatants

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

VALUATION IN THE DESIGN OF FUTURE SURFACE COMBATANTS by Lauren B. Majchrzak June 2017 Thesis Advisor: Johnathan Mun Second Reader: Tom...thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE REAL OPTIONS VALUATION IN THE DESIGN OF FUTURE SURFACE COMBATANTS 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Lauren B. Majchrzak...meeting their service-life expectancy of 40 years. Modular Adaptable Ship (MAS) designs that include flexibility, decoupled payloads from the platform

An Overview of Intervention Options for Promoting Adaptive Behavior of Persons with Acquired Brain Injury and Minimally Conscious State

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lancioni, Giulio E.; Bosco, Andrea; Belardinelli, Marta Olivetti; Singh, Nirbhay N.; O'Reilly, Mark F.; Sigafoos, Jeff

2010-01-01

This paper presents an overview of the studies directed at helping post-coma persons with minimally conscious state improve their adaptive behavior. Twenty-one studies were identified for the 2000-2010 period (i.e., a period in which an intense debate has occurred about diagnostic, rehabilitative, prognostic, and ethical issues concerning people…

An adaptive tracker for ShipIR/NTCS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswamy, Srinivasan; Vaitekunas, David A.

2015-05-01

A key component in any image-based tracking system is the adaptive tracking algorithm used to segment the image into potential targets, rank-and-select the best candidate target, and the gating of the selected target to further improve tracker performance. This paper will describe a new adaptive tracker algorithm added to the naval threat countermeasure simulator (NTCS) of the NATO-standard ship signature model (ShipIR). The new adaptive tracking algorithm is an optional feature used with any of the existing internal NTCS or user-defined seeker algorithms (e.g., binary centroid, intensity centroid, and threshold intensity centroid). The algorithm segments the detected pixels into clusters, and the smallest set of clusters that meet the detection criterion is obtained by using a knapsack algorithm to identify the set of clusters that should not be used. The rectangular area containing the chosen clusters defines an inner boundary, from which a weighted centroid is calculated as the aim-point. A track-gate is then positioned around the clusters, taking into account the rate of change of the bounding area and compensating for any gimbal displacement. A sequence of scenarios is used to test the new tracking algorithm on a generic unclassified DDG ShipIR model, with and without flares, and demonstrate how some of the key seeker signals are impacted by both the ship and flare intrinsic signatures.

Design of telehealth trials--introducing adaptive approaches.

PubMed

Law, Lisa M; Wason, James M S

2014-12-01

The field of telehealth and telemedicine is expanding as the need to improve efficiency of health care becomes more pressing. The decision to implement a telehealth system is generally an expensive undertaking that impacts a large number of patients and other stakeholders. It is therefore extremely important that the decision is fully supported by accurate evaluation of telehealth interventions. Numerous reviews of telehealth have described the evidence base as inconsistent. In response they call for larger, more rigorously controlled trials, and trials which go beyond evaluation of clinical effectiveness alone. The aim of this paper is to discuss various ways in which evaluation of telehealth could be improved by the use of adaptive trial designs. We discuss various adaptive design options, such as sample size reviews and changing the study hypothesis to address uncertain parameters, group sequential trials and multi-arm multi-stage trials to improve efficiency, and enrichment designs to maximise the chances of obtaining clear evidence about the telehealth intervention. There is potential to address the flaws discussed in the telehealth literature through the adoption of adaptive approaches to trial design. Such designs could lead to improvements in efficiency, allow the evaluation of multiple telehealth interventions in a cost-effective way, or accurately assess a range of endpoints that are important in the overall success of a telehealth programme. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Land use and desertification in the Binh Thuan Province of Southeastern Vietnam: mitigation and adaptation options now and under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gobin, A.; Le Trinh, H.; Pham Ha, L.; Hens, L.

2012-04-01

Desertification and drought affects approximately 300,000 ha of land in the southeastern provinces of Vietnam, much of which is located on agricultural land and forest in the Binh Thuan Province. The methodology for analysing mitigation and adaptation options follows a chain of risk approach that includes a spatio-temporal characterisation of (1) the hazard, (2) the bio-physical and socio-economic impact, (3) the vulnerability to different activities as related to land uses, and (4) risk management options. The present forms of land degradation include sand dune formation and severe erosion (63%), degradation due to laterisation (14%), salinisation (13%), and rock outcrops (10%). The climate is characterized by a distinct dry season with high temperatures, a lot of sunshine and a warm land wind resulting in high evapotranspiration rates. Delays in the onset of the rainy season, e.g. with 20 days in 2010, cause a shift in the growing season. Damages due to drought are estimated at hundreds billion VND (US 1 = VND 20,8900) and contribute to poverty in the rural areas. The current risk-exposure is exacerbated further by climate change. Combined effects of desertification and climate change cause increased degradation of natural resources including land cover. At the same time land use changes are crucial in influencing responses to climate change and desertification. A further SWOT analysis combined with spatio-temporal analysis for each of the major sectors (agriculture, forestry and nature protection, urban and rural development, water resources and fisheries, industry) demonstrates a series of adaptation and mitigation options. Land is a valuable and limited resource. An integrated approach to land use and management is therefore essential to combat environmental hazards such as desertification and climate change.

Adaptation and Validation of a Nutrition Environment Measures Survey for University Grab-and-Go Establishments.

PubMed

Lo, Brian K C; Minaker, Leia; Chan, Alicia N T; Hrgetic, Jessica; Mah, Catherine L

2016-03-01

To adapt and validate a survey instrument to assess the nutrition environment of grab-and-go establishments at a university campus. A version of the Nutrition Environment Measures Survey for grab-and-go establishments (NEMS-GG) was adapted from existing NEMS instruments and tested for reliability and validity through a cross-sectional assessment of the grab-and-go establishments at the University of Toronto. Product availability, price, and presence of nutrition information were evaluated. Cohen's kappa coefficient and intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) were assessed for inter-rater reliability, and construct validity was assessed using the known-groups comparison method (via store scores). Fifteen grab-and-go establishments were assessed. Inter-rater reliability was high with an almost perfect agreement for availability (mean κ = 0.995) and store scores (ICC = 0.999). The tool demonstrated good face and construct validity. About half of the venues carried fruit and vegetables (46.7% and 53.3%, respectively). Regular and healthier entrée items were generally the same price. Healthier grains were cheaper than regular options. Six establishments displayed nutrition information. Establishments operated by the university's Food Services consistently scored the highest across all food premise types for nutrition signage, availability, and cost of healthier options. Health promotion strategies are needed to address availability and variety of healthier grab-and-go options in university settings.

Adapting to the Effects of Climate Change on Inuit Health

PubMed Central

Ford, James D.; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Chatwood, Susan; Furgal, Christopher; Harper, Sherilee; Mauro, Ian; Pearce, Tristan

2014-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching implications for Inuit health. Focusing on adaptation offers a proactive approach for managing climate-related health risks—one that views Inuit populations as active agents in planning and responding at household, community, and regional levels. Adaptation can direct attention to the root causes of climate vulnerability and emphasize the importance of traditional knowledge regarding environmental change and adaptive strategies. An evidence base on adaptation options and processes for Inuit regions is currently lacking, however, thus constraining climate policy development. In this article, we tackled this deficit, drawing upon our understanding of the determinants of health vulnerability to climate change in Canada to propose key considerations for adaptation decision-making in an Inuit context. PMID:24754615

Adapting to the effects of climate change on Inuit health.

PubMed

Ford, James D; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Chatwood, Susan; Furgal, Christopher; Harper, Sherilee; Mauro, Ian; Pearce, Tristan

2014-06-01

Climate change will have far-reaching implications for Inuit health. Focusing on adaptation offers a proactive approach for managing climate-related health risks-one that views Inuit populations as active agents in planning and responding at household, community, and regional levels. Adaptation can direct attention to the root causes of climate vulnerability and emphasize the importance of traditional knowledge regarding environmental change and adaptive strategies. An evidence base on adaptation options and processes for Inuit regions is currently lacking, however, thus constraining climate policy development. In this article, we tackled this deficit, drawing upon our understanding of the determinants of health vulnerability to climate change in Canada to propose key considerations for adaptation decision-making in an Inuit context.

Unlocking the potential of smart grid technologies with behavioral science

PubMed Central

Sintov, Nicole D.; Schultz, P. Wesley

2015-01-01

Smart grid systems aim to provide a more stable and adaptable electricity infrastructure, and to maximize energy efficiency. Grid-linked technologies vary widely in form and function, but generally share common potentials: to reduce energy consumption via efficiency and/or curtailment, to shift use to off-peak times of day, and to enable distributed storage and generation options. Although end users are central players in these systems, they are sometimes not central considerations in technology or program design, and in some cases, their motivations for participating in such systems are not fully appreciated. Behavioral science can be instrumental in engaging end-users and maximizing the impact of smart grid technologies. In this paper, we present emerging technologies made possible by a smart grid infrastructure, and for each we highlight ways in which behavioral science can be applied to enhance their impact on energy savings. PMID:25914666

Unlocking the potential of smart grid technologies with behavioral science.

PubMed

Sintov, Nicole D; Schultz, P Wesley

2015-01-01

Smart grid systems aim to provide a more stable and adaptable electricity infrastructure, and to maximize energy efficiency. Grid-linked technologies vary widely in form and function, but generally share common potentials: to reduce energy consumption via efficiency and/or curtailment, to shift use to off-peak times of day, and to enable distributed storage and generation options. Although end users are central players in these systems, they are sometimes not central considerations in technology or program design, and in some cases, their motivations for participating in such systems are not fully appreciated. Behavioral science can be instrumental in engaging end-users and maximizing the impact of smart grid technologies. In this paper, we present emerging technologies made possible by a smart grid infrastructure, and for each we highlight ways in which behavioral science can be applied to enhance their impact on energy savings.

Unlocking the potential of smart grid technologies with behavioral science

DOE PAGES

Sintov, Nicole D.; Schultz, P. Wesley

2015-04-09

Smart grid systems aim to provide a more stable and adaptable electricity infrastructure, and to maximize energy efficiency. Grid-linked technologies vary widely in form and function, but generally share common potentials: to reduce energy consumption via efficiency and/or curtailment, to shift use to off-peak times of day, and to enable distributed storage and generation options. Although end users are central players in these systems, they are sometimes not central considerations in technology or program design, and in some cases, their motivations for participating in such systems are not fully appreciated. Behavioral science can be instrumental in engaging end-users and maximizingmore » the impact of smart grid technologies. In this study, we present emerging technologies made possible by a smart grid infrastructure, and for each we highlight ways in which behavioral science can be applied to enhance their impact on energy savings.« less

Unlocking the potential of smart grid technologies with behavioral science

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sintov, Nicole D.; Schultz, P. Wesley

Smart grid systems aim to provide a more stable and adaptable electricity infrastructure, and to maximize energy efficiency. Grid-linked technologies vary widely in form and function, but generally share common potentials: to reduce energy consumption via efficiency and/or curtailment, to shift use to off-peak times of day, and to enable distributed storage and generation options. Although end users are central players in these systems, they are sometimes not central considerations in technology or program design, and in some cases, their motivations for participating in such systems are not fully appreciated. Behavioral science can be instrumental in engaging end-users and maximizingmore » the impact of smart grid technologies. In this study, we present emerging technologies made possible by a smart grid infrastructure, and for each we highlight ways in which behavioral science can be applied to enhance their impact on energy savings.« less

Perspectives on Active Video Gaming as a New Frontier in Accessible Physical Activity for Youth With Physical Disabilities

PubMed Central

Malone, Laurie A.; Fidopiastis, Cali M.; Padalabalanarayanan, Sangeetha; Thirumalai, Mohanraj; Rimmer, James H.

2016-01-01

This perspective article explores the utility of active video gaming as a means of reducing sedentary behavior and increasing physical activity among youth with physical disabilities and limitations in lower extremity function who typically are excluded from mainstream exercise options. Youth with physical disabilities are disproportionately affected by health problems that result from sedentary behavior, lack of physical activity, and low fitness levels. Physical, programmatic, and attitudinal barriers have a synergistic and compounded impact on youths' ability to participate in physical activity. A recent health and wellness task force recommendation from the American Physical Therapy Association's Section on Pediatrics supports analyzing individualized health behaviors and preferences that are designed to improve fitness, physical activity, and participation in pediatric rehabilitation. This recommendation represents an opportunity to explore nontraditional options to maximize effectiveness and sustainability of pediatric rehabilitation techniques for youth with disabilities who could best benefit from customized programming. One new frontier in promoting physical activity and addressing common physical activity barriers for youth with physical disabilities is active video games (AVGs), which have received growing attention as a promising strategy for promoting health and fitness in children with and without disabilities. The purpose of this article is to discuss the potential for AVGs as an accessible option to increase physical activity participation for youth with physical disabilities and limitations in lower extremity function. A conceptual model on the use of AVGs to increase physical activity participation for youth with physical disabilities is introduced, and future research potential is discussed, including a development project for game controller adaptations within the Rehabilitation Engineering Research Center on Interactive Exercise Technologies and Exercise Physiology for People With Disabilities (RERC RecTech) at the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB)/Lakeshore Foundation Research Collaborative. PMID:26316530

Placing the power of real options analysis into the hands of natural resource managers - taking the next step.

PubMed

Nelson, Rohan; Howden, Mark; Hayman, Peter

2013-07-30

This paper explores heuristic methods with potential to place the analytical power of real options analysis into the hands of natural resource managers. The complexity of real options analysis has led to patchy or ephemeral adoption even by corporate managers familiar with the financial-market origins of valuation methods. Intuitively accessible methods for estimating the value of real options have begun to evolve, but their evaluation has mostly been limited to researcher-driven applications. In this paper we work closely with Bush Heritage Australia to evaluate the potential of real options analysis to support the intuitive judgement of conservation estate managers in covenanting land with uncertain future conservation value due to climate change. The results show that modified decision trees have potential to estimate the option value of covenanting individual properties while time and ongoing research resolves their future conservation value. Complementing this, Luehrman's option space has potential to assist managers with limited budgets to increase the portfolio value of multiple properties with different conservation attributes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of different signal-processing options on speech-in-noise recognition for cochlear implant recipients with the cochlear CP810 speech processor.

PubMed

Potts, Lisa G; Kolb, Kelly A

2014-04-01

Difficulty understanding speech in the presence of background noise is a common report among cochlear implant (CI) recipients. Several speech-processing options designed to improve speech recognition, especially in noise, are currently available in the Cochlear Nucleus CP810 speech processor. These include adaptive dynamic range optimization (ADRO), autosensitivity control (ASC), Beam, and Zoom. The purpose of this study was to evaluate CI recipients' speech-in-noise recognition to determine which currently available processing option or options resulted in best performance in a simulated restaurant environment. Experimental study with one study group. The independent variable was speech-processing option, and the dependent variable was the reception threshold for sentences score. Thirty-two adult CI recipients. Eight processing options were tested: Beam, Beam + ASC, Beam + ADRO, Beam + ASC + ADRO, Zoom, Zoom + ASC, Zoom + ADRO, and Zoom + ASC + ADRO. Participants repeated Hearing in Noise Test sentences presented at a 0° azimuth, with R-Space restaurant noise presented from a 360° eight-loudspeaker array at 70 dB sound pressure level. A one-way repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to analyze differences in Beam options, Zoom options, and Beam versus Zoom options. Among the Beam options, Beam + ADRO was significantly poorer than Beam only, Beam + ASC, and Beam + ASC + ADRO. A 1.6-dB difference was observed between the best (Beam only) and poorest (Beam + ADRO) options. Among the Zoom options, Zoom only and Zoom + ADRO were significantly poorer than Zoom + ASC. A 2.2-dB difference was observed between the best (Zoom + ASC) and poorest (Zoom only) options. The comparison between Beam and Zoom options showed one significant difference, with Zoom only significantly poorer than Beam only. No significant difference was found between the other Beam and Zoom options (Beam + ASC vs Zoom + ASC, Beam + ADRO vs Zoom + ADRO, and Beam + ASC + ADRO vs Zoom + ASC + ADRO). The best processing option varied across subjects, with an almost equal number of participants performing best with a Beam option (n = 15) compared with a Zoom option (n = 17). There were no significant demographic or audiological moderating variables for any option. The results showed no significant differences between adaptive directionality (Beam) and fixed directionality (Zoom) when ASC was active in the R-Space environment. This finding suggests that noise-reduction processing is extremely valuable in loud semidiffuse environments in which the effectiveness of directional filtering might be diminished. However, there was no significant difference between the Beam-only and Beam + ASC options, which is most likely related to the additional noise cancellation performed by the Beam option (i.e., two-stage directional filtering and noise cancellation). In addition, the processing options with ADRO resulted in the poorest performances. This could be related to how the CI recipients were programmed or the loud noise level used in this study. The best processing option varied across subjects, but the majority performed best with directional filtering (Beam or Zoom) in combination with ASC. Therefore in a loud semidiffuse environment, the use of either Beam + ASC or Zoom + ASC is recommended. American Academy of Audiology.

Adaptive function allocation reduces performance costs of static automation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parasuraman, Raja; Mouloua, Mustapha; Molloy, Robert; Hilburn, Brian

1993-01-01

Adaptive automation offers the option of flexible function allocation between the pilot and on-board computer systems. One of the important claims for the superiority of adaptive over static automation is that such systems do not suffer from some of the drawbacks associated with conventional function allocation. Several experiments designed to test this claim are reported in this article. The efficacy of adaptive function allocation was examined using a laboratory flight-simulation task involving multiple functions of tracking, fuel-management, and systems monitoring. The results show that monitoring inefficiency represents one of the performance costs of static automation. Adaptive function allocation can reduce the performance cost associated with long-term static automation.

Translating Knowledge into Action: Supporting Adaptation in Australia's Coastal Zone through Information Provision and Decision Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palutikof, J. P.; Rissik, D.; Tonmoy, F. N.; Boulter, S.

2015-12-01

Adaptation to risks from climate change and sea-level rise is particularly important in Australia, where 70% of the population live in major coastal cities and 85% within 50km of the coast. Adaptation activity focuses at local government level and, in the absence of strong leadership from central government, the extent to which local councils have taken action to adapt is highly variable across the nation. Also, although a number of councils have proceeded as far as identifying their exposure to risk and considering adaptation options, this fails to translate into action. A principal reason for this is concern over the response from coastal residents to actions which may affect property values, and fear of litigation. A project is underway to support councils to understand their risks, evaluate adaptation options and proceed to action. This support will consist of a three-pronged framework: provision of information, a tool to support decision-making, and a community forum. Delivery involves research to understand the barriers to adaptation and how these may be overcome, optimal methods for delivery of information, and the information needs of organizations, action-takers and communities. The presentation will focus on the results of consultation undertaken to understand users' information needs around content and delivery, and how understanding of these needs has translated into design of the framework. A strongly preference was expressed to learn from peers, and a challenge for the framework is to understand how to inject adaptation knowledge which is up-to-date and accurate into peer-to-peer conversations. The community forum is one mechanism to achieve this. The basic structure and delivery mechanisms of the framework are shown in the attached.

Adaptation or Resistance: a classification of responses to sea-level rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, J. A.

2016-02-01

Societal responses to sea level rise and associated coastal change are apparently diverse in nature and motivation. Most are commonly referred to as 'adaptation'. Based on a review of current practice, however, it is argued that many of these responses do not involve adaptation, but are rather resisting change. There are several instances where formerly adaptive initiatives involving human adaptability are being replaced by initiatives that resist change. A classification is presented that recognises a continuum of responses ranging from adaptation to resistance, depending upon the willingness to change human activities to accommodate environmental change. In many cases climate change adaptation resources are being used for projects that are purely resistant and which foreclose future adaptation options. It is argued that a more concise definition of adaptation is needed if coastal management is to move beyond the current position of holding the shoreline, other tah n in a few showcase examples.

Silencing the roadblocks to effective triple-negative breast cancer treatments by siRNA nanoparticles.

PubMed

Parvani, Jenny G; Jackson, Mark W

2017-04-01

Over the past decade, RNA interference (RNAi) has been ubiquitously utilized to study biological function in vitro ; however, limitations were associated with its utility in vivo More recently, small interfering RNA (siRNA) nanoparticles with improved biocompatibility have gained prevalence as a potential therapeutic option for the treatment of various diseases. The adaptability of siRNA nanoparticles enables the delivery of virtually any siRNA, which is especially advantageous for therapeutic applications in heterogeneous diseases that lack unifying molecular features, such as triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). TNBC is an aggressive subtype of breast cancer that is stratified by the lack of estrogen receptor/progesterone receptor expression and HER2 amplification. There are currently no FDA-approved targeted therapies for the treatment of TNBCs, making cytotoxic chemotherapy the only treatment option available to these patients. In this review, we outline the current status of siRNA nanoparticles in clinical trials for cancer treatment and discuss the promising preclinical approaches that have utilized siRNA nanoparticles for TNBC treatment. Next, we address TNBC subtype-specific therapeutic interventions and highlight where and how siRNA nanoparticles fit into these strategies. Lastly, we point out ongoing challenges in the field of siRNA nanoparticle research that, if addressed, would significantly improve the efficacy of siRNA nanoparticles as a therapeutic option for cancer treatment. © 2017 Society for Endocrinology.

An approach to quantify the heat wave strength and price a heat derivative for risk hedging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Samuel S. P.; Kramps, Benedikt; Sun, Shirley X.; Bailey, Barbara

2012-01-01

Mitigating the heat stress via a derivative policy is a vital financial option for agricultural producers and other business sectors to strategically adapt to the climate change scenario. This study has provided an approach to identifying heat stress events and pricing the heat stress weather derivative due to persistent days of high surface air temperature (SAT). Cooling degree days (CDD) are used as the weather index for trade. In this study, a call-option model was used as an example for calculating the price of the index. Two heat stress indices were developed to describe the severity and physical impact of heat waves. The daily Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-D) SAT data from 1901 to 2007 from the southern California, USA, were used. A major California heat wave that occurred 20-25 October 1965 was studied. The derivative price was calculated based on the call-option model for both long-term station data and the interpolated grid point data at a regular 0.1°×0.1° latitude-longitude grid. The resulting comparison indicates that (a) the interpolated data can be used as reliable proxy to price the CDD and (b) a normal distribution model cannot always be used to reliably calculate the CDD price. In conclusion, the data, models, and procedures described in this study have potential application in hedging agricultural and other risks.

Age-related changes in decision making: comparing informed and noninformed situations.

PubMed

Van Duijvenvoorde, Anna C K; Jansen, Brenda R J; Bredman, Joren C; Huizenga, Hilde M

2012-01-01

Advantageous decision making progressively develops into early adulthood, most specifically in complex and motivationally salient decision situations in which direct feedback on gains and losses is provided (Figner & Weber, 2011). However, the factors that underlie this developmental improvement in decision making are still not well understood. The current study therefore investigates 2 potential factors, long-term memory and working memory, by assigning a large developmental sample (7-29 years of age) to a condition with either high or low demands on long-term and working memory. The first condition featured an age-adapted version of the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT; Bechara, Damasio, Damasio, & Anderson, 1994; i.e., a noninformed situation), whereas the second condition provided an external store where explicit information on gains, losses, and probabilities per choice option was presented (i.e., an informed situation). Consistent with previous developmental IGT studies, children up to age 12 did not learn to prefer advantageous options in the noninformed condition. In contrast, all age groups learned to prefer the advantageous options in the informed conditions, although a slight developmental increase in advantageous decision making remained. These results indicate that lowering dependence on long-term and working memory improves children's advantageous decision making. The results additionally suggest that other factors, like inhibitory control processes, may play an additional role in the development of advantageous decision making.

Feasibility and acceptability of shared decision-making to promote alcohol behavior change among women Veterans: Results from focus groups.

PubMed

Abraham, Traci H; Wright, Patricia; White, Penny; Booth, Brenda M; Cucciare, Michael A

2017-01-01

Although rates of unhealthy drinking are high among women Veterans with mental health comorbidities, most women Veterans with mental comorbidities who present to primary care with unhealthy drinking do not receive alcohol-related care. Barriers to alcohol-related treatment could be reduced through patient-centered approaches to care, such as shared decision-making. We assessed the feasibility and acceptability of a telephone-delivered shared decision-making intervention for promoting alcohol behavior change in women Veterans with unhealthy drinking and co-morbid depression and/or probable post-traumatic stress disorder. We used 3, 2-hour focus group discussions with 19 women Veterans to identify barriers and solicit recommendations for using the intervention with women Veterans who present to primary care with unhealthy drinking and mental health comorbidities. Transcripts from the focus groups were qualitatively analyzed using template analysis. Although participants perceived that the intervention was feasible and acceptable for the targeted patient population, they identified the treatment delivery modality, length of telephone sessions, and some of the option grid content as potential barriers. Facilitators included strategies for enhancing the telephone-delivered shared decision-making sessions and diversifying the treatment options contained in the option grids. Focus group feedback resulted in preliminary adaptations to the intervention that are mindful of women Veterans' individual preferences for care and realistic in the everyday context of their busy lives.

Climate change, variability and extreme events : risk assessment and management strategies in a Peach cultivated area in Italy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alfieri, Silvia Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Missere, Daniele; Menenti, Massimo

2014-05-01

Climate change in Mediterranean area is likely to reduce precipitation amounts and to increase temperature thus affecting the timing of development stages and the productivity of crops. Further, extreme weather events are expected to increase in the future leading to significant increase in agricultural risk. Some strategies for effectively managing risks and adapting to climate change involve adjustments to irrigation management and use of different varieties. We quantified the risk on Peach production in an irrigated area of "Emilia Romagna" region ( Italy) taking into account the impact on crop yield due to climate change and variability and to extreme weather events as well as the ability of the agricultural system to modulate this impact (adaptive capacity) through changes in water and crop management. We have focused on climatic events causing insufficient water supply to crops, while taking into account the effect of climate on the duration and timing of phenological stages. Further, extreme maximum and minimum temperature events causing significant reduction of crop yield have been considered using phase-specific critical temperatures. In our study risk was assessed as the product of the probability of a damaging event (hazard), such as drought or extreme temperatures, and the estimated impact of such an event (vulnerability). To estimate vulnerability we took into account the possible options to reduce risk, by combining estimates of the sensitivity of the system (negative impact on crop yield) and its adaptive capacity. The latter was evaluated as the relative improvement due to alternate management options: the use of alternate varieties or the changes in irrigation management. Vulnerability was quantified using cultivar-specific thermal and hydrologic requirements of a set of cultivars determined by experimental data and from scientific literature. Critical temperatures determining a certain reduction of crop yield have been estimated and used to assess thermal hazard and vulnerability in sensitive phenological stages. Cultivar-specific yield response functions to water availability were used to assess the reduction of yield for a determinate management option. Downscaled climate scenarios have been used to calculate indicators of soil water availability and thermal times and to evaluate the variability of crop phenology in combination with critical temperatures. Two climate scenarios were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050) climate, the former from climatic statistics on observed variables, and the latter from statistical downscaling of general circulation models (AOGCM). Management options were defined by combinations of irrigation strategies (optimal, rainfed and deficit) with use of alternate varieties. As regards hydrologic conditions, risk assessment has been done at landscape scale in all soil units within each study area. The mechanistic model SWAP (Soil-Water-Atmosphere-Plant model) of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system was used to describe the hydrological conditions in response to climate and irrigation. Different farm management options were evaluated. In a moderate water shortage scenario, deficit irrigation was an effective strategy to cope with climate change risks. In a severe water shortage scenario, the study showed the potentiality of intra-specific biodiversity to reduce risk of yield losses, although costs should be evaluated against the benefits of each specific management option. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Adaptation to climate change in industry: improving resource efficiency through sustainable production applications.

PubMed

Alkayal, Emrah; Bogurcu, Merve; Ulutas, Ferda; Demirer, Göksel Niyazi

2015-01-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the climate change adaptation opportunities of six companies from different sectors through resource efficiency and sustainable production. A total of 77 sustainable production options were developed for the companies based on the audits conducted. After screening these opportunities with each company's staff, 19 options were selected and implemented. Significant water savings (849,668 m3/year) were achieved as a result of the applications that targeted reduction of water use. In addition to water savings, the energy consumption was reduced by 3,607 MWh, which decreased the CO2 emissions by 904.1 tons/year. Moreover, the consumption of 278.4 tons/year of chemicals (e.g., NaCl, CdO, NaCN) was avoided, thus the corresponding pollution load to the wastewater treatment plant was reduced. Besides the tangible improvements, other gains were achieved, such as improved product quality, improved health and safety conditions, reduced maintenance requirements, and ensured compliance with national and EU regulations. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first ever activity in Turkey devoted to climate change adaptation in the private sector. This study may serve as a building block in Turkey for the integration of climate change adaptation and mitigation approach in the industry, since water efficiency (adaptation) and carbon reduction (mitigation) are achieved simultaneously.

Adaptive locomotor training on an end-effector gait robot: evaluation of the ground reaction forces in different training conditions.

PubMed

Tomelleri, Christopher; Waldner, Andreas; Werner, Cordula; Hesse, Stefan

2011-01-01

The main goal of robotic gait rehabilitation is the restoration of independent gait. To achieve this goal different and specific patterns have to be practiced intensively in order to stimulate the learning process of the central nervous system. The gait robot G-EO Systems was designed to allow the repetitive practice of floor walking, stair climbing and stair descending. A novel control strategy allows training in adaptive mode. The force interactions between the foot and the ground were analyzed on 8 healthy volunteers in three different conditions: real floor walking on a treadmill, floor walking on the gait robot in passive mode, floor walking on the gait robot in adaptive mode. The ground reaction forces were measured by a Computer Dyno Graphy (CDG) analysis system. The results show different intensities of the ground reaction force across all of the three conditions. The intensities of force interactions during the adaptive training mode are comparable to the real walking on the treadmill. Slight deviations still occur in regard to the timing pattern of the forces. The adaptive control strategy comes closer to the physiological swing phase than the passive mode and seems to be a promising option for the treatment of gait disorders. Clinical trials will validate the efficacy of this new option in locomotor therapy on the patients. © 2011 IEEE

Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Years 2004 and 2005

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-07-01

physical, biological, social, and economic sciences. In February 2003, this committee reported its recommendations, which provided invaluable assistance...related environmental systems, and the options proposed to adapt to or mitigate these changes, may have substantial environmental, economic , and societal...adaptive management, and policymaking.The program also will encourage development of new methods, models, and other resources that facilitate economic

Defining Victory: Three Case Studies of Strategic Guidance and Decision Making

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-06-18

options to formulate guidance? Finally, did the decision makers adequately revisit their decisions in order to adapt to changing situations? The U.S...to leave guidance unchanged in the face of changing political circumstances. Both military and civilian leaders generally discounted the...unpredictable impact of military actions themselves on the strategic goals and therefore failed to adapt to changing situations. iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS This

Adaptive Structures Programs for the Strategic Defense Initiative Organization

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-01-01

Advanced Control Technology Experiment ( ACTEX ) Modular Control Patch High Frequency Passive Damping Strut Development Optional PZT Passive...on this space test bed in FY95. The Advanced Control Technology Experiment ( ACTEX ) will demonstrate many of the adaptive structures technologies...Accelerometer Bi-ax Accelerometer Smart Strut Figure 7. Schematic of Advanced Control Technology Experiment ( ACTEX ) 6-28-91-2M 1-6-92-5M PZ Stack

An infrared modular panoramic imaging objective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Palmer, Troy A.; Alexay, Christopher C.

2004-08-01

We describe the optical and mechanical design of an athermal infrared objective lens with an afocal anamorphic adapter. The lens presented consists of two modules: an athermal 25mm F/2.3 mid-wave IR objective lens and an optional panoramic adapter. The adapter utilizes anamorphic lenses to create unique image control. The result of which enables an independent horizontal wide field of view, while preserving the original narrow vertical field. We have designed, fabricated and tested two such lenses. A summary of the assembly and testing process is also presented.

Financial options methodology for analyzing investments in new technology

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wenning, B.D.

1994-12-31

The evaluation of investments in longer term research and development in emerging technologies, because of the nature of such subjects, must address inherent uncertainties. Most notably, future cash flow forecasts include substantial uncertainties. Conventional present value methodology, when applied to emerging technologies severely penalizes cash flow forecasts, and strategic investment opportunities are at risk of being neglected. Use of options valuation methodology adapted from the financial arena has been introduced as having applicability in such technology evaluations. Indeed, characteristics of superconducting magnetic energy storage technology suggest that it is a candidate for the use of options methodology when investment decisionsmore » are being contemplated.« less

Financial options methodology for analyzing investments in new technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wenning, B. D.

1995-01-01

The evaluation of investments in longer term research and development in emerging technologies, because of the nature of such subjects, must address inherent uncertainties. Most notably, future cash flow forecasts include substantial uncertainties. Conventional present value methodology, when applied to emerging technologies severely penalizes cash flow forecasts, and strategic investment opportunities are at risk of being neglected. Use of options evaluation methodology adapted from the financial arena has been introduced as having applicability in such technology evaluations. Indeed, characteristics of superconducting magnetic energy storage technology suggest that it is a candidate for the use of options methodology when investment decisions are being contemplated.

Neural signatures of economic parameters during decision-making: a functional MRI (FMRI), electroencephalography (EEG) and autonomic monitoring study.

PubMed

Minati, Ludovico; Grisoli, Marina; Franceschetti, Silvana; Epifani, Francesca; Granvillano, Alice; Medford, Nick; Harrison, Neil A; Piacentini, Sylvie; Critchley, Hugo D

2012-01-01

Adaptive behaviour requires an ability to obtain rewards by choosing between different risky options. Financial gambles can be used to study effective decision-making experimentally, and to distinguish processes involved in choice option evaluation from outcome feedback and other contextual factors. Here, we used a paradigm where participants evaluated 'mixed' gambles, each presenting a potential gain and a potential loss and an associated variable outcome probability. We recorded neural responses using autonomic monitoring, electroencephalography (EEG) and functional neuroimaging (fMRI), and used a univariate, parametric design to test for correlations with the eleven economic parameters that varied across gambles, including expected value (EV) and amount magnitude. Consistent with behavioural economic theory, participants were risk-averse. Gamble evaluation generated detectable autonomic responses, but only weak correlations with outcome uncertainty were found, suggesting that peripheral autonomic feedback does not play a major role in this task. Long-latency stimulus-evoked EEG potentials were sensitive to expected gain and expected value, while alpha-band power reflected expected loss and amount magnitude, suggesting parallel representations of distinct economic qualities in cortical activation and central arousal. Neural correlates of expected value representation were localized using fMRI to ventromedial prefrontal cortex, while the processing of other economic parameters was associated with distinct patterns across lateral prefrontal, cingulate, insula and occipital cortices including default-mode network and early visual areas. These multimodal data provide complementary evidence for distributed substrates of choice evaluation across multiple, predominantly cortical, brain systems wherein distinct regions are preferentially attuned to specific economic features. Our findings extend biologically-plausible models of risky decision-making while providing potential biomarkers of economic representations that can be applied to the study of deficits in motivational behaviour in neurological and psychiatric patients.

Preventing recurrence of endometriosis by means of long-acting progestogen therapy (PRE-EMPT): report of an internal pilot, multi-arm, randomised controlled trial incorporating flexible entry design and adaption of design based on feasibility of recruitment.

PubMed

Middleton, Lee J; Daniels, Jane P; Weckesser, Annalise; Bhattacharya, Siladitya

2017-03-11

Endometriosis is associated with the growth of endometrium in ectopic sites mainly within the pelvis. This results in inflammation and scarring, causing pain and impaired quality of life. Endometriotic lesions can be excised or ablated surgically, but the risk of recurrence is high. A Heath Technology Assessment commissioning call in 2011 sought applications for trials aimed at evaluating long-term effectiveness of postoperative, long-acting, reversible contraceptives (LARCs) in preventing recurrence of endometriosis. A survey of gynaecologists indicated that there was no consensus about which LARC (Levonorgestrel Intrauterine System (LNG-IUS) or depot medroxyprogesterone acetate injection (DMPA)) or comparator (combined oral contraceptive pill (COCP) or no treatment) should be evaluated. Hence, we designed a 'flexible-entry' internal pilot to assess whether a four-arm trial was feasible including a possible design adaption based on pilot findings. In this pilot, women could be randomised to two, three or four treatment options provided that one was a LARC and one was a non-LARC. An assessment of feasibility based on recruitment to these options and a revised substantive trial design was considered by an independent oversight committee. The study ran for 1 year from April 2014 and 77 women were randomised. Only 5 (6%) women accepted randomisation to all groups, with 63 (82%) having a LARC preference and 55 (71%) a non-LARC preference. Four-way and three-way designs were ruled out with a two-way LARC versus COCP design, stratified by prerandomisation choice of LARC and optional subrandomisation to LNG-IUS versus DMPA considered a feasible substantive study. Multi-arm studies are potentially efficient as they can answer multiple questions simultaneously but are difficult to recruit to if there are strong patient or clinician preferences. A flexible approach to randomisation in a pilot phase can be used to assess feasibility of such studies and modify a trial design based on chosen recruitment options, but trialists should consider carefully any practical arrangements should groups need to be dropped during a study. International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number, ISRCTN97865475 . Registered on 20 March 2014.

Adaptive reuse in the healthcare industry: repurposing abandoned buildings to serve medical missions.

PubMed

Elrod, James K; Fortenberry, John L

2017-07-11

Adaptive reuse-the practice of identifying, acquiring, renovating, and placing back into service a building or similar structure for a purpose different than that for which it was originally designed-offers great potential for addressing the spatial expansion needs of healthcare establishments in a unique and mutually beneficial manner. This repurposing approach, however, has received very little attention in the health sciences literature, diminishing the opportunities of those serving in hospitals, medical clinics, and related care providing institutions to acquire an understanding of the practice. The delivery of healthcare services primarily is site based, requiring physical space for physicians, nurses, administrators, and others to carry out the many duties associated with the provision of medical care and attention. But this space often represents a significant expenditure, consuming financial resources which otherwise could be directed toward patient care. Economies on this front are possible through adaptive reuse, permitting more resources to be directed toward mission fulfillment activities. This article directs attention toward adaptive reuse by profiling Willis-Knighton Health System's associated experiences and implementation strategies. Among other things, opportunities and obstacles are discussed, detailed cases are presented, and an operational framework is provided, permitting healthcare providers to understand and make use of this novel practice for addressing spatial expansion needs more affordably. Since space considerations exist throughout the lives of healthcare establishments, providers must ensure an awareness of methods for productively attending to these requirements. Evidenced by Willis-Knighton Health System's associated experiences and outcomes, adaptive reuse presents an option for more economically addressing spatial requirements, fostering opportunities to expand the delivery of health and medical services.

Experiences with an adaptive design for a dose-finding study in patients with osteoarthritis.

PubMed

Miller, Frank; Björnsson, Marcus; Svensson, Ola; Karlsten, Rolf

2014-03-01

Dose-finding studies in non-oncology areas are usually conducted in Phase II of the development process of a new potential medicine and it is key to choose a good design for such a study, as the results will decide if and how to proceed to Phase III. The present article has focus on the design of a dose-finding study for pain in osteoarthritis patients treated with the TRPV1 antagonist AZD1386. We describe different design alternatives in the planning of this study, the reasoning for choosing the adaptive design and experiences with conduct and interim analysis. Three alternatives were proposed: one single dose-finding study with parallel design, a programme with a smaller Phase IIa study followed by a Phase IIb dose-finding study, and an adaptive dose-finding study. We describe these alternatives in detail and explain why the adaptive design was chosen for the study. We give insights in design aspects of the adaptive study, which need to be pre-planned, like interim decision criteria, statistical analysis method and setup of a Data Monitoring Committee. Based on the interim analysis it was recommended to stop the study for futility since AZD1386 showed no significant pain decrease based on the primary variable. We discuss results and experiences from the conduct of the study with the novel design approach. Huge cost savings have been done compared to if the option with one dose-finding design for Phase II had been chosen. However, we point out several challenges with this approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Systems Approach to Manage Drinking Water Quality ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Drinking water supplies can be vulnerable to impacts from short-term weather events, long-term changes in land-use and climate, and water quality controls in treatment and distribution. Disinfection by-product (DBP) formation in drinking water is a prominent example to illustrate the water supply vulnerability and examine technological options in adaptation. Total organic carbon (TOC) in surface water can vary significantly due to changes or a combination of changes in watershed land use, climate variability, and extreme meteorological events (e.g., hurricanes). On the other hand, water demand is known to vary temporarily and spatially leading to changes in water ages and hence DBP formation potential. Typically a drinking water facility is designed to operate within a projected range of influent water quality and water demand. When the variations exceed the design range, water supply becomes vulnerable in the compliance to Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) Stage-II disinfection by-product (DBP) rules. This paper describes a framework of systems-level modeling, monitoring and control in adaptive planning and system operation. The framework, built upon the integration of model projections, adaptive monitoring and systems control, has three primary functions. Its advantages and limitations will be discussed with the application examples in Cincinnati (Ohio, USA) and Las Vegas (Nevada, USA). At a conceptual level, an integrated land use and hydrological model

Adaptive cultural transmission biases in children and nonhuman primates.

PubMed

Price, Elizabeth E; Wood, Lara A; Whiten, Andrew

2017-08-01

Comparative and evolutionary developmental analyses seek to discover the similarities and differences between humans and non-human species that might illuminate both the evolutionary foundations of our nature that we share with other animals, and the distinctive characteristics that make human development unique. As our closest animal relatives, with whom we last shared common ancestry, non-human primates have been particularly important in this endeavour. Such studies have focused on social learning, traditions, and culture, and have discovered much about the 'how' of social learning, concerned with key underlying processes such as imitation and emulation. One of the core discoveries is that the adaptive adjustment of social learning options to different contexts is not unique to human, therefore multiple new strands of research have begun to focus on more subtle questions about when, from whom, and why such learning occurs. Here we review illustrative studies on both human infants and young children and on non-human primates to identify the similarities shared more broadly across the primate order, and the apparent specialisms that distinguish human development. Adaptive biases in social learning discussed include those modulated by task comprehension, experience, conformity to majorities, and the age, skill, proficiency and familiarity of potential alternative cultural models. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Endurance Sport Activity and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation – Epidemiology, Proposed Mechanisms and Management

PubMed Central

Vicedomini, Gabriele; Pappone, Carlo

2014-01-01

There is evidence for a higher prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) in athletes engaged in long-term endurance sports training compared with the general population. Although atrial anatomic adaptations, alterations in autonomic nervous system, chronic systemic inflammation and fibrosis have been proposed as potential mechanisms, they remain speculative. Medical therapy with long-term antiarrhythmic agents or ‘pill in the pocket’ medications is hampered by limitations, such as sports eligibility and interference with exercise tolerance. AF ablation represents a valid therapeutic option with results similar to these achieved in other patients. Nevertheless, further clinical trials are needed to confirm whether endurance sport practice affects the maintenance of sinus rhythm following catheter ablation of AF. PMID:26835059

Developing a climate adaptation strategy for vulnerable seabirds based on prioritisation of intervention options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alderman, Rachael; Hobday, Alistair J.

2017-06-01

Conservation of marine species typically focuses on monitoring and mitigating demonstrated stressors where possible. Evidence is accumulating that some species will be negatively affected in the future by climate change and that reduction of existing stressors may not be sufficient to offset these impacts. Recent work suggests the shy albatross (Thalassarche cauta) will be adversely affected by projected changes in environmental conditions under plausible climate change scenarios. Furthermore, modelling shows that elimination of the principal present-day threat to albatrosses, fisheries bycatch, an achievable and critical priority, may not be sufficient to reverse projected population declines due to climate impacts, which cannot be directly eliminated. Here, a case study is presented in which a range of intervention options, in preparation for predicted climate change impacts, are identified and evaluated. A suite of 24 plausible climate adaptation options is first assessed using a semi-quantitative cost-benefit-risk tool, leading to a relative ranking of actions. Of these options, increasing chick survival via reduction of disease prevalence through control of vectors, was selected for field trials. Avian insecticide was applied to chicks' mid-way through their development and the effect on subsequent survival was evaluated. Survival of treated chicks after six weeks was significantly higher (92.7%) than those in control areas (82.1%). This approach shows that options to enhance albatross populations exist and we argue that testing interventions prior to serious impacts can formalise institutional processes and allow refinement of actions that offer some chance of mitigating the impacts of climate change on iconic marine species.

Computer program for calculation of oxygen uptake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Castle, B. L.; Castle, G.; Greenleaf, J. E.

1979-01-01

A description and operational precedures are presented for a computer program, written in Super Basic, that calculates oxygen uptake, carbon dioxide production, and related ventilation parameters. Program features include: (1) the option of entering slope and intercept values of calibration curves for the O2 and CO2 and analyzers; (2) calculation of expired water vapor pressure; and (3) the option of entering inspured O2 and CO2 concentrations. The program is easily adaptable for programmable laboratory calculators.

Immunology.

PubMed

Toskala, Elina

2014-09-01

Knowledge of our immune system functions is critical for understanding allergic airway disease development as well as for selection of appropriate diagnostic and therapeutic options for patients with respiratory allergies. This review explains the current understanding of the basic immunology of the upper airways and the pathophysiology of allergic responses, including the mechanisms behind allergic rhinitis. The immune system can be divided to 2 main defense systems that function differently-innate immunity and adaptive immunity. Innate immunity includes several defensive mechanisms such as anatomic or physical barriers, physiological barriers, phagocytosis, and inflammation. The adaptive immune response is activated in an antigen-specific way to provide for the elimination of antigen and induce lasting protection. Hypersensitivity reactions occur when an exaggerated adaptive immune response is activated. Allergic rhinitis is an example of a type I, immunoglobulin E, mediated hypersensitivity reaction. Today we have several immunomodulatory treatment options for patients with allergic airway diseases, such as subcutaneous and sublingual immunotherapy. An understanding of the basics of our immune system and its method of functions is key for using these therapies appropriately. © 2014 ARS-AAOA, LLC.

Active transport and heat.

PubMed

Tait, Peter W

2011-07-01

Increasing heat may impede peoples' ability to be active outdoors thus limiting active transport options. Co-benefits from mitigation of and adaptation to global warming should not be assumed but need to be actively designed into strategies.

Neural Mechanisms for Adaptive Learned Avoidance of Mental Effort.

PubMed

Mitsuto Nagase, Asako; Onoda, Keiichi; Clifford Foo, Jerome; Haji, Tomoki; Akaishi, Rei; Yamaguchi, Shuhei; Sakai, Katsuyuki; Morita, Kenji

2018-02-05

Humans tend to avoid mental effort. Previous studies have demonstrated this tendency using various demand-selection tasks; participants generally avoid options associated with higher cognitive demand. However, it remains unclear whether humans avoid mental effort adaptively in uncertain and non-stationary environments, and if so, what neural mechanisms underlie this learned avoidance and whether they remain the same irrespective of cognitive-demand types. We addressed these issues by developing novel demand-selection tasks where associations between choice options and cognitive-demand levels change over time, with two variations using mental arithmetic and spatial reasoning problems (29:4 and 18:2 males:females). Most participants showed avoidance, and their choices depended on the demand experienced on multiple preceding trials. We assumed that participants updated the expected cost of mental effort through experience, and fitted their choices by reinforcement learning models, comparing several possibilities. Model-based fMRI analyses revealed that activity in the dorsomedial and lateral frontal cortices was positively correlated with the trial-by-trial expected cost for the chosen option commonly across the different types of cognitive demand, and also revealed a trend of negative correlation in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex. We further identified correlates of cost-prediction-error at time of problem-presentation or answering the problem, the latter of which partially overlapped with or were proximal to the correlates of expected cost at time of choice-cue in the dorsomedial frontal cortex. These results suggest that humans adaptively learn to avoid mental effort, having neural mechanisms to represent expected cost and cost-prediction-error, and the same mechanisms operate for various types of cognitive demand. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT In daily life, humans encounter various cognitive demands, and tend to avoid high-demand options. However, it remains unclear whether humans avoid mental effort adaptively under dynamically changing environments, and if so, what are the underlying neural mechanisms and whether they operate irrespective of cognitive-demand types. To address these issues, we developed novel tasks, where participants could learn to avoid high-demand options under uncertain and non-stationary environments. Through model-based fMRI analyses, we found regions whose activity was correlated with the expected mental effort cost, or cost-prediction-error, regardless of demand-type, with overlap or adjacence in the dorsomedial frontal cortex. This finding contributes to clarifying the mechanisms for cognitive-demand avoidance, and provides empirical building blocks for the emerging computational theory of mental effort. Copyright © 2018 the authors.

A Model for Climate Change Adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pasqualini, D.; Keating, G. N.

2009-12-01

Climate models predict serious impacts on the western U.S. in the next few decades, including increased temperatures and reduced precipitation. In combination, these changes are linked to profound impacts on fundamental systems, such as water and energy supplies, agriculture, population stability, and the economy. Global and national imperatives for climate change mitigation and adaptation are made actionable at the state level, for instance through greenhouse gas (GHG) emission regulations and incentives for renewable energy sources. However, adaptation occurs at the local level, where energy and water usage can be understood relative to local patterns of agriculture, industry, and culture. In response to the greenhouse gas emission reductions required by California’s Assembly Bill 32 (2006), Sonoma County has committed to sharp emissions reductions across several sectors, including water, energy, and transportation. To assist Sonoma County develop a renewable energy (RE) portfolio to achieve this goal we have developed an integrated assessment model, CLEAR (CLimate-Energy Assessment for Resiliency) model. Building on Sonoma County’s existing baseline studies of energy use, carbon emissions and potential RE sources, the CLEAR model simulates the complex interactions among technology deployment, economics and social behavior. This model enables assessment of these and other components with specific analysis of their coupling and feedbacks because, due to the complex nature of the problem, the interrelated sectors cannot be studied independently. The goal is an approach to climate change mitigation and adaptation that is replicable for use by other interested communities. The model user interfaces helps stakeholders and policymakers understand options for technology implementation.

Technical note: DIRART--A software suite for deformable image registration and adaptive radiotherapy research.

PubMed

Yang, Deshan; Brame, Scott; El Naqa, Issam; Aditya, Apte; Wu, Yu; Goddu, S Murty; Mutic, Sasa; Deasy, Joseph O; Low, Daniel A

2011-01-01

Recent years have witnessed tremendous progress in image guide radiotherapy technology and a growing interest in the possibilities for adapting treatment planning and delivery over the course of treatment. One obstacle faced by the research community has been the lack of a comprehensive open-source software toolkit dedicated for adaptive radiotherapy (ART). To address this need, the authors have developed a software suite called the Deformable Image Registration and Adaptive Radiotherapy Toolkit (DIRART). DIRART is an open-source toolkit developed in MATLAB. It is designed in an object-oriented style with focus on user-friendliness, features, and flexibility. It contains four classes of DIR algorithms, including the newer inverse consistency algorithms to provide consistent displacement vector field in both directions. It also contains common ART functions, an integrated graphical user interface, a variety of visualization and image-processing features, dose metric analysis functions, and interface routines. These interface routines make DIRART a powerful complement to the Computational Environment for Radiotherapy Research (CERR) and popular image-processing toolkits such as ITK. DIRART provides a set of image processing/registration algorithms and postprocessing functions to facilitate the development and testing of DIR algorithms. It also offers a good amount of options for DIR results visualization, evaluation, and validation. By exchanging data with treatment planning systems via DICOM-RT files and CERR, and by bringing image registration algorithms closer to radiotherapy applications, DIRART is potentially a convenient and flexible platform that may facilitate ART and DIR research. 0 2011 Ameri-

Is the bitter rejection response always adaptive?

PubMed

Glendinning, J I

1994-12-01

The bitter rejection response consists of a suite of withdrawal reflexes and negative affective responses. It is generally assumed to have evolved as a way to facilitate avoidance of foods that are poisonous because they usually taste bitter to humans. Using previously published studies, the present paper examines the relationship between bitterness and toxicity in mammals, and then assesses the ecological costs and benefits of the bitter rejection response in carnivorous, omnivorous, and herbivorous (grazing and browsing) mammals. If the bitter rejection response accurately predicts the potential toxicity of foods, then one would expect the threshold for the response to be lower for highly toxic compounds than for nontoxic compounds. The data revealed no such relationship. Bitter taste thresholds varied independently of toxicity thresholds, indicating that the bitter rejection response is just as likely to be elicited by a harmless bitter food as it is by a harmful one. Thus, it is not necessarily in an animal's best interest to have an extremely high or low bitter threshold. Based on this observation, it was hypothesized that the adaptiveness of the bitter rejection response depends upon the relative occurrence of bitter and potentially toxic compounds in an animal's diet. Animals with a relatively high occurrence of bitter and potentially toxic compounds in their diet (e.g., browsing herbivores) were predicted to have evolved a high bitter taste threshold and tolerance to dietary poisons. Such an adaptation would be necessary because a browser cannot "afford" to reject all foods that are bitter and potentially toxic without unduly restricting its dietary options. At the other extreme, animals that rarely encounter bitter and potentially toxic compounds in their diet (e.g., carnivores) were predicted to have evolved a low bitter threshold. Carnivores could "afford" to utilize such a stringent rejection mechanism because foods containing bitter and potentially toxic compounds constitute a small portion of their diet. Since the low bitter threshold would reduce substantially the risk of ingesting anything poisonous, carnivores were also expected to have a relatively low tolerance to dietary poisons. This hypothesis was supported by a comparison involving 30 mammal species, in which a suggestive relationship was found between quinine hydrochloride sensitivity and trophic group, with carnivores > omnivores > grazers > browsers. Further support for the hypothesis was provided by a comparison across browsers and grazers in terms of the production of tannin-binding salivary proteins, which probably represent an adaptation for reducing the bitterness and astringency of tannins.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Rivals in the dark: how competition influences search in decisions under uncertainty.

PubMed

Phillips, Nathaniel D; Hertwig, Ralph; Kareev, Yaakov; Avrahami, Judith

2014-10-01

In choices between uncertain options, information search can increase the chances of distinguishing good from bad options. However, many choices are made in the presence of other choosers who may seize the better option while one is still engaged in search. How long do (and should) people search before choosing between uncertain options in the presence of such competition? To address this question, we introduce a new experimental paradigm called the competitive sampling game. We use both simulation and empirical data to compare search and choice between competitive and solitary environments. Simulation results show that minimal search is adaptive when one expects competitors to choose quickly or is uncertain about how long competitors will search. Descriptively, we observe that competition drastically reduces information search prior to choice. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Objective criteria ranking framework for renewable energy policy decisions in Nigeria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

K, Nwofor O.; N, Dike V.

2016-08-01

We present a framework that seeks to improve the objectivity of renewable energy policy decisions in Nigeria. It consists of expert ranking of resource abundance, resource efficiency and resource environmental comfort in the choice of renewable energy options for large scale power generation. The rankings are converted to a more objective function called Resource Appraisal Function (RAF) using dependence operators derived from logical relationships amongst the various criteria. The preferred option is that with the highest average RAF coupled with the least RAF variance. The method can be extended to more options, more criteria, and more opinions and can be adapted for similar decisions in education, environment and health sectors.

Technical draft study report for TOPEX satellite options study, volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

The use of two spacecraft for adaptation to the TOPEX mission, namely the P80-1 and the GPS phase 2 are considered. The mission involved three mission options, each option varying in payload definition, payload weight, orbital altitude and payload power requirements. The P80-1 spacecraft is an Air Force Space Test Program satellite which carries a number of payloads to an orbital altitude of 400 n.mi. at a minimum inclination of 72.5 deg, and which has an orbital life capability of three years. The GPS phase 2 spacecraft is the operational satellite for the Global Positioning NAVSTAR navigation constellation provided for all service (and commercial) use.

The precautionary principle and emerging biological risks: lessons from swine flu and HIV in blood products.

PubMed Central

Stoto, Michael A.

2002-01-01

Two examples-the "swine flu affair" in 1976 and the emergence of HIV in the blood supply in the early 1980s-illustrate the difficulties of decision-making in public health. Both cases illustrate trade-offs between product risks and public health benefits, especially with regard to uncertainty in estimates of product risks, public health risks, and the benefits of prevention. The cases also illustrate the tendency of public health policy makers to go all the way or do nothing at all, rather than consider intermediate options that can be adapted as new information emerges. This review suggests three lessons for public health policy makers: (1) be open and honest about scientific uncertainty; (2) communicate with the public, even when the facts are not clear; and (3) consider intermediate, adaptable policy options, such as obtaining more information, thus reducing uncertainty, and building in decision points to reconsider initial policies. Underlying all of these lessons is the need to commission studies to resolve important uncertainties and increase the information base for public communication, and to review regulations and other policy options in the light of the new data that emerge. PMID:12576534

The precautionary principle and emerging biological risks: lessons from swine flu and HIV in blood products.

PubMed

Stoto, Michael A

2002-01-01

Two examples-the "swine flu affair" in 1976 and the emergence of HIV in the blood supply in the early 1980s-illustrate the difficulties of decision-making in public health. Both cases illustrate trade-offs between product risks and public health benefits, especially with regard to uncertainty in estimates of product risks, public health risks, and the benefits of prevention. The cases also illustrate the tendency of public health policy makers to go all the way or do nothing at all, rather than consider intermediate options that can be adapted as new information emerges. This review suggests three lessons for public health policy makers: (1) be open and honest about scientific uncertainty; (2) communicate with the public, even when the facts are not clear; and (3) consider intermediate, adaptable policy options, such as obtaining more information, thus reducing uncertainty, and building in decision points to reconsider initial policies. Underlying all of these lessons is the need to commission studies to resolve important uncertainties and increase the information base for public communication, and to review regulations and other policy options in the light of the new data that emerge.

Adaptive Flight Control Research at NASA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Motter, Mark A.

2008-01-01

A broad overview of current adaptive flight control research efforts at NASA is presented, as well as some more detailed discussion of selected specific approaches. The stated objective of the Integrated Resilient Aircraft Control Project, one of NASA s Aviation Safety programs, is to advance the state-of-the-art of adaptive controls as a design option to provide enhanced stability and maneuverability margins for safe landing in the presence of adverse conditions such as actuator or sensor failures. Under this project, a number of adaptive control approaches are being pursued, including neural networks and multiple models. Validation of all the adaptive control approaches will use not only traditional methods such as simulation, wind tunnel testing and manned flight tests, but will be augmented with recently developed capabilities in unmanned flight testing.

Intense laser beams; Proceedings of the Meeting, Los Angeles, CA, Jan. 23, 24, 1992

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wade, Richard C. (Editor); Ulrich, Peter B. (Editor)

1992-01-01

Various papers on intense laser beams are presented. Individual topics addressed include: novel methods of copper vapor laser excitation, UCLA IR FEL, lasing characteristics of a large-bore copper vapor laser (CVL), copper density measurement of a large-bore CVL, high-power XeCl excimer laser, solid state direct-drive circuit for pumping gas lasers, united energy model for FELs, intensity and frequency instabilities in double-mode CO2 lasers, comparison of output power stabilities of CO and CO2 lasers, increasing efficiency of sealed-off CO lasers, thermal effects in singlet delta oxygen generation, optical extraction from the chemical oxygen-iodine laser medium, generation and laser diagnostic analysis of bismuth fluoride. Also discussed are: high-Q resonator design for an HF overtone chemical lasers, improved coatings for HF overtone lasers, scaled atmospheric blooming experiment, simulation on producing conjugate field using deformable mirrors, paraxial theory of amplitude correction, potential capabilities of adaptive optical systems in the atmosphere, power beaming research at NASA, system evaluations of laser power beaming options, performance projections for laser beam power to space, independent assessment of laser power beaming options, removal of atmospheric CFCs by lasers, efficiency of vaporization cutting by CVL.

Life Cycle Assessment of Solar Photovoltaic Microgrid Systems in Off-Grid Communities.

PubMed

Bilich, Andrew; Langham, Kevin; Geyer, Roland; Goyal, Love; Hansen, James; Krishnan, Anjana; Bergesen, Joseph; Sinha, Parikhit

2017-01-17

Access to a reliable source of electricity creates significant benefits for developing communities. Smaller versions of electricity grids, known as microgrids, have been developed as a solution to energy access problems. Using attributional life cycle assessment, this project evaluates the environmental and energy impacts of three photovoltiac (PV) microgrids compared to other energy options for a model village in Kenya. When normalized per kilowatt hour of electricity consumed, PV microgrids, particularly PV-battery systems, have lower impacts than other energy access solutions in climate change, particulate matter, photochemical oxidants, and terrestrial acidification. When compared to small-scale diesel generators, PV-battery systems save 94-99% in the above categories. When compared to the marginal electricity grid in Kenya, PV-battery systems save 80-88%. Contribution analysis suggests that electricity and primary metal use during component, particularly battery, manufacturing are the largest contributors to overall PV-battery microgrid impacts. Accordingly, additional savings could be seen from changing battery manufacturing location and ensuring end of life recycling. Overall, this project highlights the potential for PV microgrids to be feasible, adaptable, long-term energy access solutions, with health and environmental advantages compared to traditional electrification options.

Adjuvant Endocrine Therapy in Breast Cancer: Evolving Paradigms in Premenopausal Women.

PubMed

Rossi, Lorenzo; Pagani, Olivia

2017-05-01

In the last few years, new adjuvant endocrine treatment options have become available in young women with early breast cancer, such as the addition of ovarian function suppression to tamoxifen or aromatase inhibitors. Treatment duration has been also adapted in the latest guidelines based on the individual risk of recurrence. The oncologist is therefore challenged to precisely assess the risk of recurrence according to currently available predictive and prognostic factors in order to offer the most appropriate therapeutic option to the individual patient, considering also potential side effects, quality of life, pregnancy planning and patients' preferences. The adjuvant treatment planning should always be discussed and agreed in a multidisciplinary context. Tamoxifen remains the standard of care in low-risk patients or in case of intolerance to combined treatment with pharmacological ovarian function suppression or aromatase inhibitors. Combination treatment is indicated in intermediate high-risk disease. The patient should always be considered an active partner in the treatment decision process, to improve treatment motivation and adherence. Finally, the therapeutic choice should take into account drug availability and pharmacoeconomic issues, which unfortunately may prevent, in many low-income countries, the provision of such effective treatments.

Model risk for European-style stock index options.

PubMed

Gençay, Ramazan; Gibson, Rajna

2007-01-01

In empirical modeling, there have been two strands for pricing in the options literature, namely the parametric and nonparametric models. Often, the support for the nonparametric methods is based on a benchmark such as the Black-Scholes (BS) model with constant volatility. In this paper, we study the stochastic volatility (SV) and stochastic volatility random jump (SVJ) models as parametric benchmarks against feedforward neural network (FNN) models, a class of neural network models. Our choice for FNN models is due to their well-studied universal approximation properties of an unknown function and its partial derivatives. Since the partial derivatives of an option pricing formula are risk pricing tools, an accurate estimation of the unknown option pricing function is essential for pricing and hedging. Our findings indicate that FNN models offer themselves as robust option pricing tools, over their sophisticated parametric counterparts in predictive settings. There are two routes to explain the superiority of FNN models over the parametric models in forecast settings. These are nonnormality of return distributions and adaptive learning.

COMOC 2: Two-dimensional aerodynamics sequence, computer program user's guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Manhardt, P. D.; Orzechowski, J. A.; Baker, A. J.

1977-01-01

The COMOC finite element fluid mechanics computer program system is applicable to diverse problem classes. The two dimensional aerodynamics sequence was established for solution of the potential and/or viscous and turbulent flowfields associated with subsonic flight of elementary two dimensional isolated airfoils. The sequence is constituted of three specific flowfield options in COMOC for two dimensional flows. These include the potential flow option, the boundary layer option, and the parabolic Navier-Stokes option. By sequencing through these options, it is possible to computationally construct a weak-interaction model of the aerodynamic flowfield. This report is the user's guide to operation of COMOC for the aerodynamics sequence.

Intersection management using in-vehicle speed advisory/adaptation : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2016-08-30

In recent years, connected vehicles (CVs) and automated vehicles (AVs) have emerged as a : realistic and viable transportation option. Research centers and companies have dedicated : substantial efforts to the technology, motivated largely by the pot...

Impacts of sea-level rise on the Moroccan coastal zone: Quantifying coastal erosion and flooding in the Tangier Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Snoussi, Maria; Ouchani, Tachfine; Khouakhi, Abdou; Niang-Diop, Isabelle

2009-06-01

As part of a broad assessment of climate change impacts in Morocco, an assessment of vulnerability and adaptation of coastal zones to sea-level rise was conducted. Tangier Bay which is the most important socio-economic pole in Northern Morocco represents one of the cases studies. Using a GIS-based inundation analysis and an erosion modelling approach, the potential physical vulnerability to accelerated sea-level rise was investigated, and the most vulnerable socio-economic sectors were assessed. Results indicate that 10% and 24% of the area will be at risk of flooding respectively for minimum (4 m) and maximum (11 m) inundation levels. The most severely impacted sectors are expected to be the coastal defences and the port, the urban area, tourist coastal infrastructures, the railway, and the industrial area. Shoreline erosion would affect nearly 20% and 45% of the total beach areas respectively in 2050 and 2100. Potential response strategies and adaptation options identified include: sand dune fixation, beach nourishment and building of seawalls to protect the urban and industrial areas of high value. It was also recommended that an Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan for the region, including upgrading awareness, building regulation and urban growth planning should be the most appropriate tool to ensure a long-term sustainable development, while addressing the vulnerability of the coast to future sea-level rise.

Cerebral metabolic adaptation and ketone metabolism after brain injury

PubMed Central

Prins, Mayumi L

2010-01-01

The developing central nervous system has the capacity to metabolize ketone bodies. It was once accepted that on weaning, the ‘post-weaned/adult’ brain was limited solely to glucose metabolism. However, increasing evidence from conditions of inadequate glucose availability or increased energy demands has shown that the adult brain is not static in its fuel options. The objective of this review is to summarize the body of literature specifically regarding cerebral ketone metabolism at different ages, under conditions of starvation and after various pathologic conditions. The evidence presented supports the following findings: (1) there is an inverse relationship between age and the brain’s capacity for ketone metabolism that continues well after weaning; (2) neuroprotective potentials of ketone administration have been shown for neurodegenerative conditions, epilepsy, hypoxia/ischemia, and traumatic brain injury; and (3) there is an age-related therapeutic potential for ketone as an alternative substrate. The concept of cerebral metabolic adaptation under various physiologic and pathologic conditions is not new, but it has taken the contribution of numerous studies over many years to break the previously accepted dogma of cerebral metabolism. Our emerging understanding of cerebral metabolism is far more complex than could have been imagined. It is clear that in addition to glucose, other substrates must be considered along with fuel interactions, metabolic challenges, and cerebral maturation. PMID:17684514

Adaptation of farming practices could buffer effects of climate change on northern prairie wetlands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Voldseth, R.A.; Johnson, W.C.; Guntenspergen, G.R.; Gilmanov, T.; Millett, B.V.

2009-01-01

Wetlands of the Prairie Pothole Region of North America are vulnerable to climate change. Adaptation of farming practices to mitigate adverse impacts of climate change on wetland water levels is a potential watershed management option. We chose a modeling approach (WETSIM 3.2) to examine the effects of changes in climate and watershed cover on the water levels of a semi-permanent wetland in eastern South Dakota. Land-use practices simulated were unmanaged grassland, grassland managed with moderately heavy grazing, and cultivated crops. Climate scenarios were developed by adjusting the historical climate in combinations of 2??C and 4??C air temperature and ??10% precipitation. For these climate change scenarios, simulations of land use that produced water levels equal to or greater than unmanaged grassland under historical climate were judged to have mitigative potential against a drier climate. Water levels in wetlands surrounded by managed grasslands were significantly greater than those surrounded by unmanaged grassland. Management reduced both the proportion of years the wetland went dry and the frequency of dry periods, producing the most dynamic vegetation cycle for this modeled wetland. Both cultivated crops and managed grassland achieved water levels that were equal or greater than unmanaged grassland under historical climate for the 2??C rise in air temperature, and the 2??C rise plus 10% increase in precipitation scenarios. Managed grassland also produced water levels that were equal or greater than unmanaged grassland under historical climate for the 4??C rise plus 10% increase in precipitation scenario. Although these modeling results stand as hypotheses, they indicate that amelioration potential exists for a change in climate up to an increase of 2??C or 4??C with a concomitant 10% increase in precipitation. Few empirical data exist to verify the results of such land-use simulations; however, adaptation of farming practices is one possible mitigation avenue available for prairie wetlands. ?? 2009, The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Some practical universal noiseless coding techniques, part 3, module PSl14,K+

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rice, Robert F.

1991-01-01

The algorithmic definitions, performance characterizations, and application notes for a high-performance adaptive noiseless coding module are provided. Subsets of these algorithms are currently under development in custom very large scale integration (VLSI) at three NASA centers. The generality of coding algorithms recently reported is extended. The module incorporates a powerful adaptive noiseless coder for Standard Data Sources (i.e., sources whose symbols can be represented by uncorrelated non-negative integers, where smaller integers are more likely than the larger ones). Coders can be specified to provide performance close to the data entropy over any desired dynamic range (of entropy) above 0.75 bit/sample. This is accomplished by adaptively choosing the best of many efficient variable-length coding options to use on each short block of data (e.g., 16 samples) All code options used for entropies above 1.5 bits/sample are 'Huffman Equivalent', but they require no table lookups to implement. The coding can be performed directly on data that have been preprocessed to exhibit the characteristics of a standard source. Alternatively, a built-in predictive preprocessor can be used where applicable. This built-in preprocessor includes the familiar 1-D predictor followed by a function that maps the prediction error sequences into the desired standard form. Additionally, an external prediction can be substituted if desired. A broad range of issues dealing with the interface between the coding module and the data systems it might serve are further addressed. These issues include: multidimensional prediction, archival access, sensor noise, rate control, code rate improvements outside the module, and the optimality of certain internal code options.

Global learning for local solutions: Reducing vulnerability of marine-dependent coastal communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salim, S. S.; Paytan, A.

2016-12-01

The project `Global learning for local solutions: Reducing vulnerability of marine-dependent coastal communities' (GULLS) falls within the Belmont Forum and G8 Research Councils Initiative on Multilateral Research Funding. Participants include teams from nine countries: Australia, Brazil, India, Madagascar, Mozambique, New Zealand, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The project focuses on five regional `hotspots' of climate and social change, defined as fast-warming marine areas and areas experiencing social tensions as a result of change: south-east Australia, Brazil, India, South Africa, and the Mozambique Channel and adjacent countries of Mozambique and Madagascar. These areas require most urgent attention and serve as valuable case studies for wider applications. The project aims to assist coastal communities and other stakeholders dependent on marine resources to adapt to climate change and variability through an integrated and trans-disciplinary approach. Combining best available global knowledge with local knowledge and conditions, it is exploring adaptation options and approaches to strengthen resilience at local and community levels, with a focus on options for reconciling the needs for food security with long-term sustainability and conservation. The project will also contribute to capacity development and empowering fishing communities and other fisheries-dependent stakeholders.A standardized vulnerability assessment framework is being developed that will be used to integrate results from natural, social and economic studies in order to identify needs and options for strengthening management and existing policies. Structured comparisons between the hot-spots will assist global efforts for adaptation and strengthening resilience in marine and coastal social-ecological systems.

On valuing information in adaptive-management models.

PubMed

Moore, Alana L; McCarthy, Michael A

2010-08-01

Active adaptive management looks at the benefit of using strategies that may be suboptimal in the near term but may provide additional information that will facilitate better management in the future. In many adaptive-management problems that have been studied, the optimal active and passive policies (accounting for learning when designing policies and designing policy on the basis of current best information, respectively) are very similar. This seems paradoxical; when faced with uncertainty about the best course of action, managers should spend very little effort on actively designing programs to learn about the system they are managing. We considered two possible reasons why active and passive adaptive solutions are often similar. First, the benefits of learning are often confined to the particular case study in the modeled scenario, whereas in reality information gained from local studies is often applied more broadly. Second, management objectives that incorporate the variance of an estimate may place greater emphasis on learning than more commonly used objectives that aim to maximize an expected value. We explored these issues in a case study of Merri Creek, Melbourne, Australia, in which the aim was to choose between two options for revegetation. We explicitly incorporated monitoring costs in the model. The value of the terminal rewards and the choice of objective both influenced the difference between active and passive adaptive solutions. Explicitly considering the cost of monitoring provided a different perspective on how the terminal reward and management objective affected learning. The states for which it was optimal to monitor did not always coincide with the states in which active and passive adaptive management differed. Our results emphasize that spending resources on monitoring is only optimal when the expected benefits of the options being considered are similar and when the pay-off for learning about their benefits is large.

Screening, Assessment, and Care of Anxiety and Depressive Symptoms in Adults With Cancer: An American Society of Clinical Oncology Guideline Adaptation

PubMed Central

Andersen, Barbara L.; DeRubeis, Robert J.; Berman, Barry S.; Gruman, Jessie; Champion, Victoria L.; Massie, Mary Jane; Holland, Jimmie C.; Partridge, Ann H.; Bak, Kate; Somerfield, Mark R.; Rowland, Julia H.

2014-01-01

Purpose A Pan-Canadian Practice Guideline on Screening, Assessment, and Care of Psychosocial Distress (Depression, Anxiety) in Adults With Cancer was identified for adaptation. Methods American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) has a policy and set of procedures for adapting clinical practice guidelines developed by other organizations. The guideline was reviewed for developmental rigor and content applicability. Results On the basis of content review of the pan-Canadian guideline, the ASCO panel agreed that, in general, the recommendations were clear, thorough, based on the most relevant scientific evidence, and presented options that will be acceptable to patients. However, for some topics addressed in the pan-Canadian guideline, the ASCO panel formulated a set of adapted recommendations based on local context and practice beliefs of the ad hoc panel members. It is recommended that all patients with cancer be evaluated for symptoms of depression and anxiety at periodic times across the trajectory of care. Assessment should be performed using validated, published measures and procedures. Depending on levels of symptoms and supplementary information, differing treatment pathways are recommended. Failure to identify and treat anxiety and depression increases the risk for poor quality of life and potential disease-related morbidity and mortality. This guideline adaptation is part of a larger survivorship guideline series. Conclusion Although clinicians may not be able to prevent some of the chronic or late medical effects of cancer, they have a vital role in mitigating the negative emotional and behavioral sequelae. Recognizing and treating effectively those who manifest symptoms of anxiety or depression will reduce the human cost of cancer. PMID:24733793

Advancing indigent healthcare services through adaptive reuse: repurposing abandoned buildings as medical clinics for disadvantaged populations.

PubMed

Elrod, James K; Fortenberry, John L

2017-12-13

Challenges abound for healthcare providers engaged in initiatives directed toward disadvantaged populations, with financial constraints representing one of the most prominent hardships. Society's less fortunate typically lack the means to pay for healthcare services and even when they are covered by government health insurance programs, reimbursement shortcomings often occur, placing funding burdens on the shoulders of establishments dedicated to serving those of limited means. For such charitably-minded organizations, efficiencies are required on all fronts, including one which involves significant operational costs: the physical space required for care provision. Newly constructed buildings, whether owned or leased, are expensive, consuming a significant percentage of funds that otherwise could be directed toward patient care. Such costs can even prohibit the delivery of services to indigent populations altogether. But through adaptive reuse-the practice of repurposing existing, abandoned buildings, placing them back into service in pursuit of new missions-opportunities exist to economize on this front, allowing healthcare providers to acquire operational space at a discount. In an effort to shore up related knowledge, this article profiles Willis-Knighton Health System's development of Project NeighborHealth, an indigent clinic network which was significantly bolstered by the economies associated with adaptive reuse. Despite its potential to bolster healthcare initiatives directed toward the medically underserved by presenting more affordable options for acquiring operational space, adaptive reuse remains relatively obscure, diminishing opportunities for providers to take advantage of its many benefits. By shedding light on this repurposing approach, healthcare providers will have a better understanding of adaptive reuse, enabling them to make use of the practice to improve the depth and breadth of healthcare services available to disadvantaged populations.

[A study of the process by which a school-age child adapted to body image changes following open-heart surgery].

PubMed

Lin, Heng-Ching; Tsai, Jia-Ling

2006-10-01

This case report attempts to explore the adaptive process of body image changes in school-age children suffering from congenital ventricular septal defect (VSD) following open-heart surgery. After establishing trust relationship, we applied atraumatic care, projective communication techniques, interviews, behavioral observation, storytelling and play in our interaction with that child. We found the child experienced "body image disturbance" after open-heart surgery and underwent a four stage adaptive process as follows: (1) Impact (questioning, perception of punishment for wrongdoing, loss, anger); (2) Retreat (denial, anxiety, withdrawal, escaping social contact, inferiority); (3) Acknowledgment (cognitive change, active participation, future-oriented concerns); and (4) Reconstruction (positive self-image, reconstructing body image). Nursing intervention provided the case with more opportunities for sensory feedback and positive reinforcement and also assisted the patient to adopt a positive view of the situation and then to reconstruct and realize the meaning of such surgery. We reinforced the social supporting system to promote self-confidence, self-esteem, and self-value. The child finally accepted the wounds resulting from the operation as a symbol of "bravery"; a breakthrough likely to help in the child's re-entrance to school and normalization of life. Study findings both enhanced pediatric nurse understanding of the adaptive process involved in body image change and provided knowledge essential to designing flexible-option nursing interventions tailored to meet the demands of different adaptation stages. Obviously, such a caring model designed to meet the differing needs of different body image changes has the potential to benefit of body image integration greatly and can provide the pediatric nursing framework in the future.

Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change.

PubMed

Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, Mikhail A

2015-11-06

Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions. © 2015 The Authors.

Adaptation options for wheat in Europe will be limited by increased adverse weather events under climate change

PubMed Central

Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Semenov, Mikhail A.

2015-01-01

Ways of increasing the production of wheat, the most widely grown cereal crop, will need to be found to meet the increasing demand caused by human population growth in the coming decades. This increase must occur despite the decrease in yield gains now being reported in some regions, increased price volatility and the expected increase in the frequency of adverse weather events that can reduce yields. However, if and how the frequency of adverse weather events will change over Europe, the most important wheat-growing area, has not yet been analysed. Here, we show that the accumulated probability of 11 adverse weather events with the potential to significantly reduce yield will increase markedly across all of Europe. We found that by the end of the century, the exposure of the key European wheat-growing areas, where most wheat production is currently concentrated, may increase more than twofold. However, if we consider the entire arable land area of Europe, a greater than threefold increase in risk was predicted. Therefore, shifting wheat production to new producing regions to reduce the risk might not be possible as the risk of adverse events beyond the key wheat-growing areas increases even more. Furthermore, we found a marked increase in wheat exposure to high temperatures, severe droughts and field inaccessibility compared with other types of adverse events. Our results also showed the limitations of some of the presently debated adaptation options and demonstrated the need for development of region-specific strategies. Other regions of the world could be affected by adverse weather events in the future in a way different from that considered here for Europe. This observation emphasizes the importance of conducting similar analyses for other major wheat regions. PMID:26577595

Rainfall Patterns and U.S. Migration from Rural Mexico

PubMed Central

Hunter, Lori M.; Murray, Sheena; Riosmena, Fernando

2014-01-01

In many rural regions of developing countries, natural resource dependency means changes in climate patterns hold tremendous potential to impact livelihoods. When environmentally-based livelihood options are constrained, migration can become an important adaptive strategy. Using data from the Mexican Migration Project, we model U.S. emigration from rural communities as related to community, household and climate factors. The results suggest that households subjected to recent drought conditions are far more likely to send a U.S. migrant, but only in communities with strong migration histories. In regions lacking such social networks, rainfall deficits actually reduce migration propensities, perhaps reflecting constraints in the ability to engage in migration as a coping strategy. Policy implications emphasize diversification of rural Mexican livelihoods in the face of contemporary climate change. PMID:25473143

Compression of surface myoelectric signals using MP3 encoding.

PubMed

Chan, Adrian D C

2011-01-01

The potential of MP3 compression of surface myoelectric signals is explored in this paper. MP3 compression is a perceptual-based encoder scheme, used traditionally to compress audio signals. The ubiquity of MP3 compression (e.g., portable consumer electronics and internet applications) makes it an attractive option for remote monitoring and telemedicine applications. The effects of muscle site and contraction type are examined at different MP3 encoding bitrates. Results demonstrate that MP3 compression is sensitive to the myoelectric signal bandwidth, with larger signal distortion associated with myoelectric signals that have higher bandwidths. Compared to other myoelectric signal compression techniques reported previously (embedded zero-tree wavelet compression and adaptive differential pulse code modulation), MP3 compression demonstrates superior performance (i.e., lower percent residual differences for the same compression ratios).

Predicting and mapping malaria under climate change scenarios: the potential redistribution of malaria vectors in Africa.

PubMed

Tonnang, Henri E Z; Kangalawe, Richard Y M; Yanda, Pius Z

2010-04-23

Malaria is rampant in Africa and causes untold mortality and morbidity. Vector-borne diseases are climate sensitive and this has raised considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease risk. The problem of malaria vectors (Anopheles mosquitoes) shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is an important concern. The vision of this study was to exploit the sets of information previously generated by entomologists, e.g. on geographical range of vectors and malaria distribution, to build models that will enable prediction and mapping the potential redistribution of Anopheles mosquitoes in Africa. The development of the modelling tool was carried out through calibration of CLIMEX parameters. The model helped estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of the species in relation to climatic factors. These included temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, which characterized the living environment for Anopheles mosquitoes. The same parameters were used in determining the ecoclimatic index (EI). The EI values were exported to a GIS package for special analysis and proper mapping of the potential future distribution of Anopheles gambiae and Anophles arabiensis within the African continent under three climate change scenarios. These results have shown that shifts in these species boundaries southward and eastward of Africa may occur rather than jumps into quite different climatic environments. In the absence of adequate control, these predictions are crucial in understanding the possible future geographical range of the vectors and the disease, which could facilitate planning for various adaptation options. Thus, the outputs from this study will be helpful at various levels of decision making, for example, in setting up of an early warning and sustainable strategies for climate change and climate change adaptation for malaria vectors control programmes in Africa.

Metabolic Capabilities of the Members of the Order Halanaerobiales and Their Potential Biotechnological Applications

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Roush, Daniel W; Elias, Dwayne A; Mormile, Dr. Melanie R.

The order Halanaerobiales contains a number of well-studied halophiles that possess great potential for biotechnological applications. The unique halophilic adaptations that these organisms utilize, such as salting-in mechanisms to increase their intercellular concentration of KCl, combined with their ability to ferment simple sugars, provides an excellent platform for biotechnological development over a wide range of salt levels and possible other extreme conditions, such as alkaline conditions. From fermented foods to oil reservoirs, members of Halanaerobiales are found in many environments. The environmental conditions many of these organisms grow are similar to industrially important processes, such as alkaline pre-treated biomass stocks,more » treatment of crude glycerol from biodiesel production, salty fermented foods, as well as bioremediation of contaminants under extreme conditions of salinity and in some cases, alkalinity. From salt stable enzymes to waste fermentations, bioremediation options, bioenergy, and microbially enhanced oil recovery (MEOR), Halanaerobiales can provide a wide spectrum of environmentally friendly solutions to current problems.« less

Climate impacts on European agriculture and water management in the context of adaptation and mitigation--the importance of an integrated approach.

PubMed

Falloon, Pete; Betts, Richard

2010-11-01

We review and qualitatively assess the importance of interactions and feedbacks in assessing climate change impacts on water and agriculture in Europe. We focus particularly on the impact of future hydrological changes on agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and adaptation options. Future projected trends in European agriculture include northward movement of crop suitability zones and increasing crop productivity in Northern Europe, but declining productivity and suitability in Southern Europe. This may be accompanied by a widening of water resource differences between the North and South, and an increase in extreme rainfall events and droughts. Changes in future hydrology and water management practices will influence agricultural adaptation measures and alter the effectiveness of agricultural mitigation strategies. These interactions are often highly complex and influenced by a number of factors which are themselves influenced by climate. Mainly positive impacts may be anticipated for Northern Europe, where agricultural adaptation may be shaped by reduced vulnerability of production, increased water supply and reduced water demand. However, increasing flood hazards may present challenges for agriculture, and summer irrigation shortages may result from earlier spring runoff peaks in some regions. Conversely, the need for effective adaptation will be greatest in Southern Europe as a result of increased production vulnerability, reduced water supply and increased demands for irrigation. Increasing flood and drought risks will further contribute to the need for robust management practices. The impacts of future hydrological changes on agricultural mitigation in Europe will depend on the balance between changes in productivity and rates of decomposition and GHG emission, both of which depend on climatic, land and management factors. Small increases in European soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks per unit land area are anticipated considering changes in climate, management and land use, although an overall reduction in the total stock may result from a smaller agricultural land area. Adaptation in the water sector could potentially provide additional benefits to agricultural production such as reduced flood risk and increased drought resilience. The two main sources of uncertainty in climate impacts on European agriculture and water management are projections of future climate and their resulting impacts on water and agriculture. Since changes in climate, agricultural ecosystems and hydrometeorology depend on complex interactions between the atmosphere, biosphere and hydrological cycle there is a need for more integrated approaches to climate impacts assessments. Methods for assessing options which "moderate" the impact of agriculture in the wider sense will also need to consider cross-sectoral impacts and socio-economic aspects. Crown Copyright © 2009. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Robotics, assistive technology, and occupational therapy management to improve upper limb function in pediatric neuromuscular diseases.

PubMed

Rahman, Tariq; Basante, Joseph; Alexander, Michael

2012-08-01

This article presents an overview of occupational therapy assessments and treatment options for individuals with neuromuscular disabilities, with a particular focus on children with neuromuscular disorders. The discussion includes descriptions of standard treatments, commercial adaptive equipment, and homemade adaptive solutions. The state of the art in therapeutic and assistive robots and orthoses for the upper and lower extremity is also provided. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Results of a paired catchment analysis of forest thinning in Turkey in relation to forest management options.

PubMed

Yurtseven, Ibrahim; Serengil, Yusuf; Gökbulak, Ferhat; Şengönül, Kamil; Ozhan, Süleyman; Kılıç, Umit; Uygur, Betül; Ozçelik, Mehmet Said

2018-03-15

Adaptation to climate change has become a more serious concern as IPCC assessment reports estimate a rise of up to 2°C in average global temperatures by the end of the century. Several recently published studies have underlined the importance of forest management in mitigating the impacts of climate change and in supporting the adaptation capacity of the ecosystem. This study focuses on the role of water-related forest services in this adaptation process. The effects of forestry practices on streamflow can best be determined by paired watershed analysis. The impact of two cutting treatments on runoff was analyzed by a paired experimental watershed study in the Belgrade Forest and the results were evaluated in relation to similar experiments conducted around the world. Forest thinning treatments at 11% and 18% were carried out in a mature oak-beech forest ecosystem over different time periods. Although the thinning increased the runoff statistically, the amount of surplus water remained <5% of the annual water yield. Evidently, the hydrologic response of the watersheds was low due to the reduced intensity of the timber harvest. Finally, the results were combined with those of global studies on thinning, clearcutting and species conversion with the aim of formulating management options for adaptation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Reducing the ecological consequences of night-time light pollution: options and developments

PubMed Central

Gaston, Kevin J; Davies, Thomas W; Bennie, Jonathan; Hopkins, John

2012-01-01

1. Much concern has been expressed about the ecological consequences of night-time light pollution. This concern is most often focused on the encroachment of artificial light into previously unlit areas of the night-time environment, but changes in the spectral composition, duration and spatial pattern of light are also recognized as having ecological effects. 2. Here, we examine the potential consequences for organisms of five management options to reduce night-time light pollution. These are to (i) prevent areas from being artificially lit; (ii) limit the duration of lighting; (iii) reduce the ‘trespass’ of lighting into areas that are not intended to be lit (including the night sky); (iv) change the intensity of lighting; and (v) change the spectral composition of lighting. 3. Maintaining and increasing natural unlit areas is likely to be the most effective option for reducing the ecological effects of lighting. However, this will often conflict with other social and economic objectives. Decreasing the duration of lighting will reduce energy costs and carbon emissions, but is unlikely to alleviate many impacts on nocturnal and crepuscular animals, as peak times of demand for lighting frequently coincide with those in the activities of these species. Reducing the trespass of lighting will maintain heterogeneity even in otherwise well-lit areas, providing dark refuges that mobile animals can exploit. Decreasing the intensity of lighting will reduce energy consumption and limit both skyglow and the area impacted by high-intensity direct light. Shifts towards ‘whiter’ light are likely to increase the potential range of environmental impacts as light is emitted across a broader range of wavelengths. 4. Synthesis and applications. The artificial lightscape will change considerably over coming decades with the drive for more cost-effective low-carbon street lighting solutions and growth in the artificially lit area. Developing lighting strategies that minimize adverse ecological impacts while balancing the often conflicting requirements of light for human utility, comfort and safety, aesthetic concerns, energy consumption and carbon emission reduction constitute significant future challenges. However, as both lighting technology and understanding of its ecological effects develop, there is potential to identify adaptive solutions that resolve these conflicts. PMID:23335816

Reducing the ecological consequences of night-time light pollution: options and developments.

PubMed

Gaston, Kevin J; Davies, Thomas W; Bennie, Jonathan; Hopkins, John

2012-12-01

1. Much concern has been expressed about the ecological consequences of night-time light pollution. This concern is most often focused on the encroachment of artificial light into previously unlit areas of the night-time environment, but changes in the spectral composition, duration and spatial pattern of light are also recognized as having ecological effects.2. Here, we examine the potential consequences for organisms of five management options to reduce night-time light pollution. These are to (i) prevent areas from being artificially lit; (ii) limit the duration of lighting; (iii) reduce the 'trespass' of lighting into areas that are not intended to be lit (including the night sky); (iv) change the intensity of lighting; and (v) change the spectral composition of lighting.3. Maintaining and increasing natural unlit areas is likely to be the most effective option for reducing the ecological effects of lighting. However, this will often conflict with other social and economic objectives. Decreasing the duration of lighting will reduce energy costs and carbon emissions, but is unlikely to alleviate many impacts on nocturnal and crepuscular animals, as peak times of demand for lighting frequently coincide with those in the activities of these species. Reducing the trespass of lighting will maintain heterogeneity even in otherwise well-lit areas, providing dark refuges that mobile animals can exploit. Decreasing the intensity of lighting will reduce energy consumption and limit both skyglow and the area impacted by high-intensity direct light. Shifts towards 'whiter' light are likely to increase the potential range of environmental impacts as light is emitted across a broader range of wavelengths.4.Synthesis and applications. The artificial lightscape will change considerably over coming decades with the drive for more cost-effective low-carbon street lighting solutions and growth in the artificially lit area. Developing lighting strategies that minimize adverse ecological impacts while balancing the often conflicting requirements of light for human utility, comfort and safety, aesthetic concerns, energy consumption and carbon emission reduction constitute significant future challenges. However, as both lighting technology and understanding of its ecological effects develop, there is potential to identify adaptive solutions that resolve these conflicts.

Cultural adaptation and translation of measures: an integrated method.

PubMed

Sidani, Souraya; Guruge, Sepali; Miranda, Joyal; Ford-Gilboe, Marilyn; Varcoe, Colleen

2010-04-01

Differences in the conceptualization and operationalization of health-related concepts may exist across cultures. Such differences underscore the importance of examining conceptual equivalence when adapting and translating instruments. In this article, we describe an integrated method for exploring conceptual equivalence within the process of adapting and translating measures. The integrated method involves five phases including selection of instruments for cultural adaptation and translation; assessment of conceptual equivalence, leading to the generation of a set of items deemed to be culturally and linguistically appropriate to assess the concept of interest in the target community; forward translation; back translation (optional); and pre-testing of the set of items. Strengths and limitations of the proposed integrated method are discussed. (c) 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Adaptive designs for subpopulation analysis optimizing utility functions.

PubMed

Graf, Alexandra C; Posch, Martin; Koenig, Franz

2015-01-01

If the response to treatment depends on genetic biomarkers, it is important to identify predictive biomarkers that define (sub-)populations where the treatment has a positive benefit risk balance. One approach to determine relevant subpopulations are subgroup analyses where the treatment effect is estimated in biomarker positive and biomarker negative groups. Subgroup analyses are challenging because several types of risks are associated with inference on subgroups. On the one hand, by disregarding a relevant subpopulation a treatment option may be missed due to a dilution of the treatment effect in the full population. Furthermore, even if the diluted treatment effect can be demonstrated in an overall population, it is not ethical to treat patients that do not benefit from the treatment when they can be identified in advance. On the other hand, selecting a spurious subpopulation increases the risk to restrict an efficacious treatment to a too narrow fraction of a potential benefiting population. We propose to quantify these risks with utility functions and investigate nonadaptive study designs that allow for inference on subgroups using multiple testing procedures as well as adaptive designs, where subgroups may be selected in an interim analysis. The characteristics of such adaptive and nonadaptive designs are compared for a range of scenarios. © 2014 The Authors. Biometrical Journal published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

The Fremont complex: A behavioral perspective

USGS Publications Warehouse

Madsen, D.B.; Simms, S.R.

1998-01-01

The Fremont complex is composed of farmers and foragers who occupied the Colorado Plateau and Great Basin region of western North America from about 2100 to 500 years ago. These people included both immigrants and indigenes who shared some material culture and symbolic attributes, but also varied in ways not captured by definitions of the Fremont as a shared cultural tradition. The complex reflects a mosaic of behaviors including full-time farmers, full-time foragers, part-time farmer/foragers who seasonally switched modes of production, farmers who switched to full-time foraging, and foragers who switched to full-time farming. Farming defines the Fremont, but only in the sense that it altered the matrix in which both farmers and foragers lived, a matrix which provided a variety of behavioral options to people pursuing an array of adaptive strategies. The mix of symbiotic and competitive relationships among farmers and between farmers and foragers presents challenges to detection in the archaeological record. Greater clarity results from use of a behavioral model which recognizes differing contexts of selection favoring one adaptive strategy over another. The Fremont is a case where the transition from foraging to farming is followed by a millennium of adaptive diversity and terminates with the abandonment of farming. As such, it serves as a potential comparison to other cases in the world during the early phases of the food producing transition.

Low acid producing solid propellants

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bennett, Robert R.

1995-01-01

The potential environmental effects of the exhaust products of conventional rocket propellants have been assessed by various groups. Areas of concern have included stratospheric ozone, acid rain, toxicity, air quality and global warming. Some of the studies which have been performed on this subject have concluded that while the impacts of rocket use are extremely small, there are propellant development options which have the potential to reduce those impacts even further. This paper discusses the various solid propellant options which have been proposed as being more environmentally benign than current systems by reducing HCI emissions. These options include acid neutralized, acid scavenged, and nonchlorine propellants. An assessment of the acid reducing potential and the viability of each of these options is made, based on current information. Such an assessment is needed in order to judge whether the potential improvements justify the expenditures of developing the new propellant systems.

Speckle imaging through turbulent atmosphere based on adaptable pupil segmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loktev, Mikhail; Soloviev, Oleg; Savenko, Svyatoslav; Vdovin, Gleb

2011-07-01

We report on the first results to our knowledge obtained with adaptable multiaperture imaging through turbulence on a horizontal atmospheric path. We show that the resolution can be improved by adaptively matching the size of the subaperture to the characteristic size of the turbulence. Further improvement is achieved by the deconvolution of a number of subimages registered simultaneously through multiple subapertures. Different implementations of multiaperture geometry, including pupil multiplication, pupil image sampling, and a plenoptic telescope, are considered. Resolution improvement has been demonstrated on a ˜550m horizontal turbulent path, using a combination of aperture sampling, speckle image processing, and, optionally, frame selection.

Perspectives on Active Video Gaming as a New Frontier in Accessible Physical Activity for Youth With Physical Disabilities.

PubMed

Rowland, Jennifer L; Malone, Laurie A; Fidopiastis, Cali M; Padalabalanarayanan, Sangeetha; Thirumalai, Mohanraj; Rimmer, James H

2016-04-01

This perspective article explores the utility of active video gaming as a means of reducing sedentary behavior and increasing physical activity among youth with physical disabilities and limitations in lower extremity function who typically are excluded from mainstream exercise options. Youth with physical disabilities are disproportionately affected by health problems that result from sedentary behavior, lack of physical activity, and low fitness levels. Physical, programmatic, and attitudinal barriers have a synergistic and compounded impact on youths' ability to participate in physical activity. A recent health and wellness task force recommendation from the American Physical Therapy Association's Section on Pediatrics supports analyzing individualized health behaviors and preferences that are designed to improve fitness, physical activity, and participation in pediatric rehabilitation. This recommendation represents an opportunity to explore nontraditional options to maximize effectiveness and sustainability of pediatric rehabilitation techniques for youth with disabilities who could best benefit from customized programming. One new frontier in promoting physical activity and addressing common physical activity barriers for youth with physical disabilities is active video games (AVGs), which have received growing attention as a promising strategy for promoting health and fitness in children with and without disabilities. The purpose of this article is to discuss the potential for AVGs as an accessible option to increase physical activity participation for youth with physical disabilities and limitations in lower extremity function. A conceptual model on the use of AVGs to increase physical activity participation for youth with physical disabilities is introduced, and future research potential is discussed, including a development project for game controller adaptations within the Rehabilitation Engineering Research Center on Interactive Exercise Technologies and Exercise Physiology for People With Disabilities (RERC RecTech) at the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB)/Lakeshore Foundation Research Collaborative. © 2016 American Physical Therapy Association.

Applying Customized Climate Advisory Information to Translate Extreme Rainfall Events into Farming Options in the Sudan-Sahel of West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Salack, S.; Worou, N. O.; Sanfo, S.; Nikiema, M. P.; Boubacar, I.; Paturel, J. E.; Tondoh, E. J.

2017-12-01

In West Africa, the risk of food insecurity linked to the low productivity of small holder farming increases as a result of rainfall extremes. In its recent evolution, the rainy season in the Sudan-Sahel zone presents mixed patterns of extreme climatic events. In addition to intense rain events, the distribution of events is associated with pockets of intra-seasonal long dry spells. The negative consequences of these mixed patterns are obvious on the farm: soil water logging, erosion of arable land, dwartness and dessication of crops, and loss in production. The capacity of local farming communities to respond accordingly to rainfall extreme events is often constrained by lack of access to climate information and advisory on smart crop management practices that can help translate extreme rainfall events into farming options. The objective of this work is to expose the framework and the pre-liminary results of a scheme that customizes climate-advisory information package delivery to subsistence farmers in Bakel (Senegal), Ouahigouya & Dano (Burkina Faso) and Bolgatanga (Ghana) for sustainable family agriculture. The package is based on the provision of timely climate information (48-hours, dekadal & seasonal) embedded with smart crop management practices to explore and exploite the potential advantage of intense rainfall and extreme dry spells in millet, maize, sorghum and cowpea farming communities. It is sent via mobile phones and used on selected farms (i.e agro-climatic farm schools) on which some small on-farm infrastructure were built to alleviate negative impacts of weather. Results provide prominent insight on how co-production of weather/climate information, customized access and guidiance on its use can induce fast learning (capacity building of actors), motivation for adaptation, sustainability, potential changes in cropping system, yields and family income in the face of a rainfall extremes at local scales of Sudan-Sahel of West Africa. Keywords: Climate Information, Smart Practices, Farming Options, Agro-Climatic Farm Schools, Sudan-Sahel

Technical Note: DIRART – A software suite for deformable image registration and adaptive radiotherapy research

PubMed Central

Yang, Deshan; Brame, Scott; El Naqa, Issam; Aditya, Apte; Wu, Yu; Murty Goddu, S.; Mutic, Sasa; Deasy, Joseph O.; Low, Daniel A.

2011-01-01

Purpose: Recent years have witnessed tremendous progress in image guide radiotherapy technology and a growing interest in the possibilities for adapting treatment planning and delivery over the course of treatment. One obstacle faced by the research community has been the lack of a comprehensive open-source software toolkit dedicated for adaptive radiotherapy (ART). To address this need, the authors have developed a software suite called the Deformable Image Registration and Adaptive Radiotherapy Toolkit (DIRART). Methods:DIRART is an open-source toolkit developed in MATLAB. It is designed in an object-oriented style with focus on user-friendliness, features, and flexibility. It contains four classes of DIR algorithms, including the newer inverse consistency algorithms to provide consistent displacement vector field in both directions. It also contains common ART functions, an integrated graphical user interface, a variety of visualization and image-processing features, dose metric analysis functions, and interface routines. These interface routines make DIRART a powerful complement to the Computational Environment for Radiotherapy Research (CERR) and popular image-processing toolkits such as ITK. Results: DIRART provides a set of image processing∕registration algorithms and postprocessing functions to facilitate the development and testing of DIR algorithms. It also offers a good amount of options for DIR results visualization, evaluation, and validation. Conclusions: By exchanging data with treatment planning systems via DICOM-RT files and CERR, and by bringing image registration algorithms closer to radiotherapy applications, DIRART is potentially a convenient and flexible platform that may facilitate ART and DIR research. PMID:21361176

Working memory training in survivors of pediatric cancer: a randomized pilot study.

PubMed

Hardy, Kristina K; Willard, Victoria W; Allen, Taryn M; Bonner, Melanie J

2013-08-01

Survivors of pediatric brain tumors and acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) are at increased risk for neurocognitive deficits, but few empirically supported treatment options exist. We examined the feasibility and preliminary efficacy of a home-based, computerized working memory training program, CogmedRM, with survivors of childhood cancer. Survivors of brain tumors or ALL (n = 20) with identified deficits in attention and/or working memory were randomized to either the success-adapted computer intervention or a non-adaptive, active control condition. Specifically, children in the adaptive condition completed exercises that became more challenging with each correct trial, whereas those in the non-adaptive version trained with exercises that never increased in difficulty. All participants were asked to complete 25 training sessions at home, with weekly, phone-based coaching support. Brief assessments were completed pre-intervention and post-intervention; outcome measures included both performance-based and parent-report measures of working memory and attention. Eighty-five percent of survivors were compliant with the intervention, with no adverse events reported. After controlling for baseline intellectual functioning, survivors who completed the intervention program evidenced significant post-training improvements in their visual working memory and in parent-rated learning problems compared with those in the active control group. No differences in verbal working memory functioning were evident between groups, however. Home-based, computerized cognitive training demonstrates good feasibility and acceptability in our sample. Children with higher intellectual functioning at baseline appeared to benefit more from the training, although further study is needed to clarify the strength, scope, and particularly the generalizability of potential treatment effects. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Fitness consequences of northward dispersal as possible adaptation to climate change, using experimental translocation of a migratory passerine.

PubMed

Burger, Claudia; Nord, Andreas; Nilsson, Jan-Åke; Gilot-Fromont, Emmanuelle; Both, Christiaan

2013-01-01

Climate change leads to rapid, differential changes in phenology across trophic levels, often resulting in temporal mismatches between predators and their prey. If a species cannot easily adjust its timing, it can adapt by choosing a new breeding location with a later phenology of its prey. In this study, we experimentally investigated whether long-distance dispersal to northern breeding grounds with a later phenology could be a feasible process to restore the match between timing of breeding and peak food abundance and thus improve reproductive success. Here, we report the successful translocation of pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) to natural breeding sites 560 km to the Northeast. We expected translocated birds to have a fitness advantage with respect to environmental phenology, but to potentially pay costs through the lack of other locally adapted traits. Translocated individuals started egg laying 11 days earlier than northern control birds, which were translocated only within the northern site. The number of fledglings produced was somewhat lower in translocated birds, compared to northern controls, and fledglings were in lower body condition. Translocated individuals were performing not significantly different to control birds that remained at the original southern site. The lack of advantage of the translocated individuals most likely resulted from the exceptionally cold spring in which the experiment was carried out. Our results, however, suggest that pied flycatchers can successfully introduce their early breeding phenotype after dispersing to more northern areas, and thus that adaptation through dispersal is a viable option for populations that get locally maladapted through climate change.

Effects of ecological and conventional agricultural intensification practices on maize yields in sub-Saharan Africa under potential climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Folberth, Christian; Yang, Hong; Gaiser, Thomas; Liu, Junguo; Wang, Xiuying; Williams, Jimmy; Schulin, Rainer

2014-04-01

Much of Africa is among the world’s regions with lowest yields in staple food crops, and climate change is expected to make it more difficult to catch up in crop production in particular in the long run. Various agronomic measures have been proposed for lifting agricultural production in Africa and to adapt it to climate change. Here, we present a projection of potential climate change impacts on maize yields under different intensification options in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using an agronomic model, GIS-based EPIC (GEPIC). Fallow and nutrient management options taken into account are (a) conventional intensification with high mineral N supply and a bare fallow, (b) moderate mineral N supply and cowpea rotation, and (c) moderate mineral N supply and rotation with a fast growing N fixing tree Sesbania sesban. The simulations suggest that until the 2040s rotation with Sesbania will lead to an increase in yields due to increasing N supply besides improving water infiltration and soils’ water holding capacity. Intensive cultivation with a bare fallow or an herbaceous crop like cowpea in the rotation is predicted to result in lower yields and increased soil erosion during the same time span. However, yields are projected to decrease in all management scenarios towards the end of the century, should temperature increase beyond critical thresholds. The results suggest that the effect of eco-intensification as a sole means of adapting agriculture to climate change is limited in Sub-Saharan Africa. Highly adverse temperatures would rather have to be faced by improved heat tolerant cultivars, while strongly adverse decreases in precipitation would have to be faced by expanding irrigation where feasible. While the evaluation of changes in agro-environmental variables like soil organic carbon, erosion, and soil humidity hints that these are major factors influencing climate change resilience of the field crop, no direct relationship between these factors, crop yields, and changes in climate variables could be identified. This will need further detailed studies at the field and regional scale.

Bacteriophages for treating urinary tract infections in patients undergoing transurethral resection of the prostate: a randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trial.

PubMed

Leitner, Lorenz; Sybesma, Wilbert; Chanishvili, Nina; Goderdzishvili, Marina; Chkhotua, Archil; Ujmajuridze, Aleksandre; Schneider, Marc P; Sartori, Andrea; Mehnert, Ulrich; Bachmann, Lucas M; Kessler, Thomas M

2017-09-26

Urinary tract infections (UTI) are among the most prevalent microbial diseases and their financial burden on society is substantial. The continuing increase of antibiotic resistance worldwide is alarming. Thus, well-tolerated, highly effective therapeutic alternatives are urgently needed. Although there is evidence indicating that bacteriophage therapy may be effective and safe for treating UTIs, the number of investigated patients is low and there is a lack of randomized controlled trials. This study is the first randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial investigating bacteriophages in UTI treatment. Patients planned for transurethral resection of the prostate are screened for UTIs and enrolled if in urine culture eligible microorganisms ≥10 4 colony forming units/mL are found. Patients are randomized in a double-blind fashion to the 3 study treatment arms in a 1:1:1 ratio to receive either: a) bacteriophage (i.e. commercially available Pyo bacteriophage) solution, b) placebo solution, or c) antibiotic treatment according to the antibiotic sensitivity pattern. All treatments are intended for 7 days. No antibiotic prophylaxes will be given to the double-blinded treatment arms a) and b). As common practice, the Pyo bacteriophage cocktail is subjected to periodic adaptation cycles during the study. Urinalysis, urine culture, bladder and pain diary, and IPSS questionnaire will be completed prior to and at the end of treatment (i.e. after 7 days) or at withdrawal/drop out from the study. Patients with persistent UTIs will undergo antibiotic treatment according to antibiotic sensitivity pattern. Based on the high lytic activity and the potential of resistance optimization by direct adaptation of bacteriophages, and considering the continuing increase of antibiotic resistance worldwide, bacteriophage therapy is a very promising treatment option for UTIs. Thus, our randomized controlled trial investigating bacteriophages for treating UTIs will provide essential insights into this potentially revolutionizing treatment option. This study has been registered at clinicaltrials.gov ( www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT03140085 ). April 27, 2017.

Face Adaptation Effects: Reviewing the Impact of Adapting Information, Time, and Transfer

PubMed Central

Strobach, Tilo; Carbon, Claus-Christian

2013-01-01

The ability to adapt is essential to live and survive in an ever-changing environment such as the human ecosystem. Here we review the literature on adaptation effects of face stimuli to give an overview of existing findings in this area, highlight gaps in its research literature, initiate new directions in face adaptation research, and help to design future adaptation studies. Furthermore, this review should lead to better understanding of the processing characteristics as well as the mental representations of face-relevant information. The review systematizes studies at a behavioral level in respect of a framework which includes three dimensions representing the major characteristics of studies in this field of research. These dimensions comprise (1) the specificity of adapting face information, e.g., identity, gender, or age aspects of the material to be adapted to (2) aspects of timing (e.g., the sustainability of adaptation effects) and (3) transfer relations between face images presented during adaptation and adaptation tests (e.g., images of the same or different identities). The review concludes with options for how to combine findings across different dimensions to demonstrate the relevance of our framework for future studies. PMID:23760550

Adaptation for Planting and Irrigation Decisions to Changing Monsoon Regime in Northeast India: Risk-based Hydro-economic Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, T.; Cai, X.

2013-12-01

Delay in onset of Indian summer monsoon becomes increasingly frequent. Delayed monsoon and occasional monsoon failures seriously affect agricultural production in the northeast as well as other parts of India. In the Vaishali district of the Bihar State, Monsoon rainfall is very skewed and erratic, often concentrating in shorter durations. Farmers in Vaishali reported that delayed Monsoon affected paddy planting and, consequently delayed cropping cycle, putting crops under the risks of 'terminal heat.' Canal system in the district does not function due to lack of maintenance; irrigation relies almost entirely on groundwater. Many small farmers choose not to irrigate when monsoon onset is delayed due to high diesel price, leading to reduced production or even crop failure. Some farmers adapt to delayed onset of Monsoon by planting short-duration rice, which gives the flexibility for planting the next season crops. Other sporadic autonomous adaptation activities were observed as well, with various levels of success. Adaptation recommendations and effective policy interventions are much needed. To explore robust options to adapt to the changing Monsoon regime, we build a stochastic programming model to optimize revenues of farmer groups categorized by landholding size, subject to stochastic Monsoon onset and rainfall amount. Imperfect probabilistic long-range forecast is used to inform the model onset and rainfall amount probabilities; the 'skill' of the forecasting is measured using probabilities of correctly predicting events in the past derived through hindcasting. Crop production functions are determined using self-calibrating Positive Mathematical Programming approach. The stochastic programming model aims to emulate decision-making behaviors of representative farmer agents through making choices in adaptation, including crop mix, planting dates, irrigation, and use of weather information. A set of technological and policy intervention scenarios are tested, including irrigation subsidies, drought and heat-tolerant crop varieties, and enhancing agricultural extension. A portfolio of prioritized adaption options are recommended for the study area.

Research options for controlling zoonotic disease in India, 2010-2015.

PubMed

Sekar, Nitin; Shah, Naman K; Abbas, Syed Shahid; Kakkar, Manish

2011-02-25

Zoonotic infections pose a significant public health challenge for low- and middle-income countries and have traditionally been a neglected area of research. The Roadmap to Combat Zoonoses in India (RCZI) initiative conducted an exercise to systematically identify and prioritize research options needed to control zoonoses in India. Priority setting methods developed by the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative were adapted for the diversity of sectors, disciplines, diseases and populations relevant for zoonoses in India. A multidisciplinary group of experts identified priority zoonotic diseases and knowledge gaps and proposed research options to address key knowledge gaps within the next five years. Each option was scored using predefined criteria by another group of experts. The scores were weighted using relative ranks among the criteria based upon the feedback of a larger reference group. We categorized each research option by type of research, disease targeted, factorials, and level of collaboration required. We analysed the research options by tabulating them along these categories. Seventeen experts generated four universal research themes and 103 specific research options, the majority of which required a high to medium level of collaboration across sectors. Research options designated as pertaining to 'social, political and economic' factorials predominated and scored higher than options focussing on ecological, genetic and biological, or environmental factors. Research options related to 'health policy and systems' scored highest while those related to 'research for development of new interventions' scored the lowest. We methodically identified research themes and specific research options incorporating perspectives of a diverse group of stakeholders. These outputs reflect the diverse nature of challenges posed by zoonoses and should be acceptable across diseases, disciplines, and sectors. The identified research options capture the need for 'actionable research' for advancing the prevention and control of zoonoses in India.

Climate Change 2014: Technical Summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Chrisopher B.; Barros, Vicente; Mach, Katherine; Mastrandrea, Michael; van Aalst, Maarten; Adger, Niel; Arent, Douglas J; Barnett, Jonathan; Betts, Richard; Bilir, Eren; Birkmann, Joern; Carmin, Joann; Chadee, Dave; Challinor, Andrew; Chaterjee, Monalisa; Cramer, Wolfgang; Davidson, Debra; Estrada, Yuka; Gatusso, Jean-Pierre; Hijioka, Yasuakai; Yohe, Gary; Hiza, Margaret; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Huang, He-Qing; Insarov, Gregory; Jones, Roger; Kovats, Sari; Lankao, Patricia Romero; Larsen, Joan Nymand; Losada, Iñigo; Marengo, José; McLean, Roger; Mearns, Linda; Mechler, Reinhard; Morton, John; Niang, Isabelle; Oki, Taikan; Olwoch, Jane Mukarugwiza; Opondo, Maggie; Poloczanska, Elvira; Pörtner, Hans -O.; Reisinger, Andy; Revi, Aromar; Schmidt, Daniela; Shaw, Rebecca; Solecki, William; Stone, Dáithí; Stone, John; Strzepek, Ken; Suarez, Avelino G.; Tschakert, Petra; Valentini, Riccardo; Vicuna, Sebastian; Villamizar, Alicia; Vincent, Katharine; Warren, Rachel; White, Leslie; Wilbanks, Thomas; Wong, Poh Poh

2014-01-01

Human interference with the climate system is occurring (WGI AR5 SPM Section D.3; WGI AR5 Sections 2.2, 6.3, 10.3 to 10.6, 10.9). Climate change poses risks for human and natural systems. The assessment of impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability in the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (WGII AR5) evaluates how patterns of risks and potential benefits are shifting due to climate change. It considers how impacts and risks related to climate change can be reduced and managed through adaptation and mitigation. The report assesses needs, options, opportunities, constraints, resilience, limits, and other aspects associated with adaptation. It recognizes that risks of climate change will vary across regions and populations, through space and time, dependent on myriad factors including the extent of adaptation and mitigation. For the past 2 decades, IPCC’s Working Group II has developed assessments of climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. The WGII AR5 builds from the WGII contribution to the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report (WGII AR4), published in 2007, and the Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), published in 2012. It follows the Working Group I contribution to the AR5. The WGII AR5 is presented in two parts (Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects, and Part B: Regional Aspects), reflecting the expanded literature basis and multidisciplinary approach, increased focus on societal impacts and responses, and continued regionally comprehensive coverage. [1.1 to 1.3] The number of scientific publications available for assessing climate change impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability more than doubled between 2005 and 2010, with especially rapid increases in publications related to adaptation, allowing for a more robust assessment that supports policymaking (high confidence). The diversity of the topics and regions covered has similarly expanded, as has the geographic distribution of authors contributing to the knowledge base for climate change assessments. Authorship of climate change publications from developing countries has increased, although it still represents a small fraction of the total. The unequal distribution of publications presents a challenge to the production of a comprehensive and balanced global assessment.

A qualitative study of implementation and adaptations to Progressive Tinnitus Management (PTM) delivery.

PubMed

Tuepker, Anaïs; Elnitsky, Christine; Newell, Summer; Zaugg, Tara; Henry, James A

2018-01-01

Tinnitus is a common condition, especially prevalent among military Veterans. Progressive Tinnitus Management (PTM) is an interdisciplinary, structured, stepped-care approach to providing clinical services, including teaching coping skills, to people bothered by tinnitus. PTM has been shown to be effective at reducing functional distress, but implementation of the intervention outside of a research setting has not been studied, even though dissemination is underway within the Veterans Health Administration (VHA) system in the United States. This study was designed to address a gap in knowledge of PTM clinical implementation to date, with a focus on factors facilitating or hindering implementation in VHA audiology and mental health clinic contexts, and whether implementing sites had developed intervention adaptations. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 21 audiology and mental health clinicians and service chiefs across a regional service network. Interviews were transcribed and coded using a hybrid inductive-deductive analytic approach guided by existing implementation research frameworks and then iteratively developed for emergent themes. PTM prioritization was rare overall, with providers across disciplines challenged by lack of capacity for implementation, but with differences by discipline in challenges to prioritization. Where PTM was prioritized and delivered, this was facilitated by perception of unique value, provider's own experience of tinnitus, observation/experience with PTM delivery, intervention fit with provider's skills, and an environment with supportive leadership and adaptive reserve. PTM was frequently adapted to local contexts to address delivery challenges and diversify patient options. Adaptations included shifting from group to individual formats, reducing or combining sessions, and employing novel therapeutic approaches. Existing adaptations highlight the need to better understand mechanisms underlying PTM's effectiveness, and research on the impact of adaptations on patient outcomes is an important next step. Prioritization of PTM is a key barrier to the scale up and spread of this evidence-based intervention. Developing clinician champions may facilitate dissemination, especially if accompanied by signals of systemic prioritization. Novel approaches exposing clinicians and administrators to PTM may identify and develop clinical champions. Acknowledging the potential for PTM adaptations may make delivery more feasible in the context of existing system constraints and priorities.

Land degradation and climate change: building climate resilience in agriculture

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Land degradation and climate change pose enormous risks to global food security. Land degradation increases the vulnerability of agroecological systems to climate change and reduces the effectiveness of adaptation options. Yet these interactions have largely been omitted from climate impact assessme...

Panarchy, Adaptive Management and Governance: Policy Options for Building Resilience

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental law plays a key role in shaping policy for sustainability. In particular, the types of legal instruments, institutions, and the response of law to the inherent variability in socio-ecological systems is critical. Environmental protection has typically involved a com...

Prehospital control of life-threatening truncal and junctional haemorrhage is the ultimate challenge in optimizing trauma care; a review of treatment options and their applicability in the civilian trauma setting.

PubMed

van Oostendorp, S E; Tan, E C T H; Geeraedts, L M G

2016-09-13

Exsanguination following trauma is potentially preventable. Extremity tourniquets have been successfully implemented in military and civilian prehospital care. Prehospital control of bleeding from the torso and junctional area's remains challenging but offers a great potential to improve survival rates. This review aims to provide an overview of potential treatment options in both clinical as preclinical state of research on truncal and junctional bleeding. Since many options have been developed for application in the military primarily, translation to the civilian situation is discussed. Medline (via Pubmed) and Embase were searched to identify known and potential prehospital treatment options. Search terms were|: haemorrhage/hemorrhage, exsanguination, junctional, truncal, intra-abdominal, intrathoracic, intervention, haemostasis/hemostasis, prehospital, en route, junctional tourniquet, REBOA, resuscitative thoracotomy, emergency thoracotomy, pelvic binder, pelvic sheet, circumferential. Treatment options were listed per anatomical site: axilla, groin, thorax, abdomen and pelvis Also, the available evidence was graded in (pre) clinical stadia of research. Identified treatment options were wound clamps, injectable haemostatic sponges, pelvic circumferential stabilizers, resuscitative thoracotomy, resuscitative endovascular balloon occlusion of the aorta (REBOA), intra-abdominal gas insufflation, intra-abdominal self-expanding foam, junctional and truncal tourniquets. A total of 70 papers on these aforementioned options was retrieved. No clinical reports on injectable haemostatic sponges, intra-abdominal insufflation or self-expanding foam injections and one type of junctional tourniquets were available. Options to stop truncal and junctional traumatic haemorrhage in the prehospital arena are evolving and may offer a potentially great survival advantage. Because of differences in injury pattern, time to definitive care, different prehospital scenario's and level of proficiency of care providers; successful translation of various military applications to the civilian situation has to be awaited. Overall, the level of evidence on the retrieved adjuncts is extremely low.

Adaptation to Chronic Nutritional Stress Leads to Reduced Dependence on Microbiota in Drosophila melanogaster.

PubMed

Erkosar, Berra; Kolly, Sylvain; van der Meer, Jan R; Kawecki, Tadeusz J

2017-10-24

Numerous studies have shown that animal nutrition is tightly linked to gut microbiota, especially under nutritional stress. In Drosophila melanogaster , microbiota are known to promote juvenile growth, development, and survival on poor diets, mainly through enhanced digestion leading to changes in hormonal signaling. Here, we show that this reliance on microbiota is greatly reduced in replicated Drosophila populations that became genetically adapted to a poor larval diet in the course of over 170 generations of experimental evolution. Protein and polysaccharide digestion in these poor-diet-adapted populations became much less dependent on colonization with microbiota. This was accompanied by changes in expression levels of dFOXO transcription factor, a key regulator of cell growth and survival, and many of its targets. These evolutionary changes in the expression of dFOXO targets to a large degree mimic the response of the same genes to microbiota, suggesting that the evolutionary adaptation to poor diet acted on mechanisms that normally mediate the response to microbiota. Our study suggests that some metazoans have retained the evolutionary potential to adapt their physiology such that association with microbiota may become optional rather than essential. IMPORTANCE Animals depend on gut microbiota for various metabolic tasks, particularly under conditions of nutritional stress, a relationship usually regarded as an inherent aspect of animal physiology. Here, we use experimental evolution in fly populations to show that the degree of host dependence on microbiota can substantially and rapidly change as the host population evolves in response to poor diet. Our results suggest that, although microbiota may initially greatly facilitate coping with suboptimal diets, chronic nutritional stress experienced over multiple generations leads to evolutionary adaptation in physiology and gut digestive properties that reduces dependence on the microbiota for growth and survival. Thus, despite its ancient evolutionary history, the reliance of animal hosts on their microbial partners can be surprisingly flexible and may be relaxed by short-term evolution. Copyright © 2017 Erkosar et al.

Airport Analyses Informing New Mobility Shifts: Opportunities to Adapt Energy-Efficient Mobility Services and Infrastructure: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Henao, Alejandro; Sperling, Joshua; Young, Stanley E

An airport is one of the most important assets for a region's economic development and connectivity with the rest of the nation and world. Key aspects for investigation of energy efficient mobility at airports is ground transportation including factors ranging from the infrastructure, mobility services, and associated revenues. Data is critical to understand the maturity of new mobility services that can inform both cities and airports on how to respond, approach, manage, and adapt to the challenges, opportunities, and uncertainties associated with shifts in new mobility that influence human behavior, energy-efficiency and sustainability strategies. One key question identified in thismore » article is how quickly we are adapting to new mobility options - such as app-based ride-hailing and 'pooling' services - that may provide an opportunity to influence energy efficiency of ground transportation to and from airports. By starting with airports in the regions of four smart city finalists in the U.S. DOT Smart City Challenge, this paper focuses on key observability aspects of new modes and the rate of shifts in mobility patterns across San Francisco, Portland, Denver, and Kansas City. With the emerging megatrend of rising urbanization and rising air travel demand (a predicted doubling in demand by 2035), airports are expected to increasingly be on the front lines of adaptation to new transportation technology and services in terms of infrastructure investments, policies, and revenues. As airports have demonstrated the most potential and capability of any public institution to implement fees for new ride-hailing services, they are also a prime resource for collecting important data to help understand smart mobility transitions. Results focused on the shifts in revenues for ground transportation at airports offer one vantage point into the pace of transitions and adaptations in the new emerging mobility landscape, and present an opportunity to analyze how future adaptations could support more energy-efficient scenarios.« less

Monte Carlo methods for multidimensional integration for European option pricing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Todorov, V.; Dimov, I. T.

2016-10-01

In this paper, we illustrate examples of highly accurate Monte Carlo and quasi-Monte Carlo methods for multiple integrals related to the evaluation of European style options. The idea is that the value of the option is formulated in terms of the expectation of some random variable; then the average of independent samples of this random variable is used to estimate the value of the option. First we obtain an integral representation for the value of the option using the risk neutral valuation formula. Then with an appropriations change of the constants we obtain a multidimensional integral over the unit hypercube of the corresponding dimensionality. Then we compare a specific type of lattice rules over one of the best low discrepancy sequence of Sobol for numerical integration. Quasi-Monte Carlo methods are compared with Adaptive and Crude Monte Carlo techniques for solving the problem. The four approaches are completely different thus it is a question of interest to know which one of them outperforms the other for evaluation multidimensional integrals in finance. Some of the advantages and disadvantages of the developed algorithms are discussed.

78 FR 17738 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-22

... customer bases of potential product users have indicated a preference that premium pricing for Mini Options... market participants clarity as to the minimum pricing increments for Mini Options, the filing would harmonize penny pricing between Mini Options and standard options on the same security. \\4\\ See Securities...

Guaranteed Student Loans: Potential Default and Cost Reduction Options. Briefing Report to Congressional Requesters.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

General Accounting Office, Washington, DC. Div. of Human Resources.

Thirty options for reducing guaranteed student loan defaults and related federal costs are provided by the General Accounting Office (GAO). The options are presented by groups of program participants: students, schools, lenders, guaranty agencies, and the Department of Education. These options include: adopt GAO's past recommendation to increase…

Potential Use of Halophytes to Remediate Saline Soils

PubMed Central

Hasanuzzaman, Mirza; Nahar, Kamrun; Alam, Md. Mahabub; Bhowmik, Prasanta C.; Hossain, Md. Amzad; Rahman, Motior M.; Prasad, Majeti Narasimha Vara; Ozturk, Munir; Fujita, Masayuki

2014-01-01

Salinity is one of the rising problems causing tremendous yield losses in many regions of the world especially in arid and semiarid regions. To maximize crop productivity, these areas should be brought under utilization where there are options for removing salinity or using the salt-tolerant crops. Use of salt-tolerant crops does not remove the salt and hence halophytes that have capacity to accumulate and exclude the salt can be an effective way. Methods for salt removal include agronomic practices or phytoremediation. The first is cost- and labor-intensive and needs some developmental strategies for implication; on the contrary, the phytoremediation by halophyte is more suitable as it can be executed very easily without those problems. Several halophyte species including grasses, shrubs, and trees can remove the salt from different kinds of salt-affected problematic soils through salt excluding, excreting, or accumulating by their morphological, anatomical, physiological adaptation in their organelle level and cellular level. Exploiting halophytes for reducing salinity can be good sources for meeting the basic needs of people in salt-affected areas as well. This review focuses on the special adaptive features of halophytic plants under saline condition and the possible ways to utilize these plants to remediate salinity. PMID:25110683

Current warming will reduce yields unless maize breeding and seed systems adapt immediately

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Challinor, A. J.; Koehler, A.-K.; Ramirez-Villegas, J.; Whitfield, S.; Das, B.

2016-10-01

The development of crop varieties that are better suited to new climatic conditions is vital for future food production. Increases in mean temperature accelerate crop development, resulting in shorter crop durations and reduced time to accumulate biomass and yield. The process of breeding, delivery and adoption (BDA) of new maize varieties can take up to 30 years. Here, we assess for the first time the implications of warming during the BDA process by using five bias-corrected global climate models and four representative concentration pathways with realistic scenarios of maize BDA times in Africa. The results show that the projected difference in temperature between the start and end of the maize BDA cycle results in shorter crop durations that are outside current variability. Both adaptation and mitigation can reduce duration loss. In particular, climate projections have the potential to provide target elevated temperatures for breeding. Whilst options for reducing BDA time are highly context dependent, common threads include improved recording and sharing of data across regions for the whole BDA cycle, streamlining of regulation, and capacity building. Finally, we show that the results have implications for maize across the tropics, where similar shortening of duration is projected.

Modular photovoltaic stand-alone systems: Phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Naff, G. J.; Marshall, N. A.

1983-01-01

A family of modular stand-alone power systems that covered the range in power level from 1 kw to 14 kw was developed. Products within this family were required to be easily adaptable to different environments and applications, and were to be both reliable and cost effective. Additionally, true commonality in hardware was to be exploited, and unnecessary recurrence of design and development costs were to be minimized; thus improving hardware availability. Assurance of compatibility with large production runs, was also an underlying program goal. A secondary objective was to compile, evaluate, and determine the economic and technical status of available, and potentially available, technology options associated with the balance of systems (BOS) for stand-along photovoltaic (PV) power systems. The secondary objective not only directly supported the primary but additionally contributed to the definition and implementation of the BOS cost reduction plan.

Hybridization and adaptive evolution of diverse Saccharomyces species for cellulosic biofuel production

DOE PAGES

Peris, David; Moriarty, Ryan V.; Alexander, William G.; ...

2017-03-27

Here, lignocellulosic biomass is a common resource across the globe, and its fermentation offers a promising option for generating renewable liquid transportation fuels. The deconstruction of lignocellulosic biomass releases sugars that can be fermented by microbes, but these processes also produce fermentation inhibitors, such as aromatic acids and aldehydes. Several research projects have investigated lignocellulosic biomass fermentation by the baker’s yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Most projects have taken synthetic biological approaches or have explored naturally occurring diversity in S. cerevisiae to enhance stress tolerance, xylose consumption, or ethanol production. Despite these efforts, improved strains with new properties are needed. In othermore » industrial processes, such as wine and beer fermentation, interspecies hybrids have combined important traits from multiple species, suggesting that interspecies hybridization may also offer potential for biofuel research.« less

An alternate approach to assessing climate risks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Casey; Wilby, Robert L.

2012-10-01

U.S. federal agencies are now required to review the potential impacts of climate change on their assets and missions. Similar arrangements are also in place in the United Kingdom under reporting powers for key infrastructure providers (http://www.defra.gov.uk/environment/climate/sectors/reporting-authorities/reporting-authorities-reports/). These requirements reflect growing concern about climate resilience and the management of long-lived assets. At one level, analyzing climate risks is a matter of due diligence, given mounting scientific evidence. However, there is no consensus about the means for doing so nor about whether climate models are even ft for the purpose; in addition, several important issues are often overlooked when incorporating climate information into adaptation decisions. An alternative to the scenarioled strategy, such as an approach based on a vulnerability analysis ("stress test"), may identify practical options for resource managers.

Hybridization and adaptive evolution of diverse Saccharomyces species for cellulosic biofuel production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Peris, David; Moriarty, Ryan V.; Alexander, William G.

Here, lignocellulosic biomass is a common resource across the globe, and its fermentation offers a promising option for generating renewable liquid transportation fuels. The deconstruction of lignocellulosic biomass releases sugars that can be fermented by microbes, but these processes also produce fermentation inhibitors, such as aromatic acids and aldehydes. Several research projects have investigated lignocellulosic biomass fermentation by the baker’s yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Most projects have taken synthetic biological approaches or have explored naturally occurring diversity in S. cerevisiae to enhance stress tolerance, xylose consumption, or ethanol production. Despite these efforts, improved strains with new properties are needed. In othermore » industrial processes, such as wine and beer fermentation, interspecies hybrids have combined important traits from multiple species, suggesting that interspecies hybridization may also offer potential for biofuel research.« less

Detection of water contamination from hydraulic fracturing wastewater: a μPAD for bromide analysis in natural waters.

PubMed

Loh, Leslie J; Bandara, Gayan C; Weber, Genevieve L; Remcho, Vincent T

2015-08-21

Due to the rapid expansion in hydraulic fracturing (fracking), there is a need for robust, portable and specific water analysis techniques. Early detection of contamination is crucial for the prevention of lasting environmental damage. Bromide can potentially function as an early indicator of water contamination by fracking waste, because there is a high concentration of bromide ions in fracking wastewaters. To facilitate this, a microfluidic paper-based analytical device (μPAD) has been developed and optimized for the quantitative colorimetric detection of bromide in water using a smartphone. A paper microfluidic platform offers the advantages of inexpensive fabrication, elimination of unstable wet reagents, portability and high adaptability for widespread distribution. These features make this assay an attractive option for a new field test for on-site determination of bromide.

Panarchy, adaptive management and governance: policy options for building resilience

EPA Science Inventory

Environmental law plays a key role in shaping policy for sus­tainability. In particular, the types of legal instruments, institutions, and the response of law to the inherent variability in socio-ecological systems are critical. Environmental protection has typically involved a c...

Science Guide for Secondary Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Georgia State Dept. of Education, Atlanta. Office of Instructional Services.

This six-chapter guide is designed to help Georgia teachers adopt or adapt various options into the local school's science curriculum. Major areas addressed in the chapters are: (1) secondary school curriculum development (focusing on performance objectives, sequencing the curriculum, evaluation, and scientific literacy); (2) teaching methods…

Longleaf pine

Treesearch

William D. Boyer; Donald W. Patterson

1983-01-01

Abstract:This report describes the longleaf pine forest type and the characteristics of both tree and forest that can affect management decisions.Longleaf pine is highly adaptable to a range of management goals and silvicultural systems.Management options and appropriate silvicultural methods for the regeneration and management of this species are...

75 FR 22673 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Order Granting Approval of a...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-04-29

... remove any potential cloud on the jurisdictional status of options or security futures on ETFS Palladium... that are affected by this approval order are essentially the same as the options and security futures... securities transactions and derivative transactions.\\6\\ By amending its By-Laws to help clarify that options...

Identify potential lock treatment options to prevent movement of aquatic invasive species through the Chicago Area Waterways System (CAWS)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hubert, Terrance D.; Boogaard, Michael A.; Fredricks, Kim T.

2016-01-14

Compatibility of the various options was also evaluated to assess the possibility that options could be combined to enhance efficacy. Engineering requirements were not considered as part of this evaluation. The available information suggests that hot water at 43 °C and ozone are the most feasible options.

Speckle imaging through turbulent atmosphere based on adaptable pupil segmentation.

PubMed

Loktev, Mikhail; Soloviev, Oleg; Savenko, Svyatoslav; Vdovin, Gleb

2011-07-15

We report on the first results to our knowledge obtained with adaptable multiaperture imaging through turbulence on a horizontal atmospheric path. We show that the resolution can be improved by adaptively matching the size of the subaperture to the characteristic size of the turbulence. Further improvement is achieved by the deconvolution of a number of subimages registered simultaneously through multiple subapertures. Different implementations of multiaperture geometry, including pupil multiplication, pupil image sampling, and a plenoptic telescope, are considered. Resolution improvement has been demonstrated on a ∼550 m horizontal turbulent path, using a combination of aperture sampling, speckle image processing, and, optionally, frame selection. © 2011 Optical Society of America

Bacteriophages as Potential Treatment for Urinary Tract Infections.

PubMed

Sybesma, Wilbert; Zbinden, Reinhard; Chanishvili, Nino; Kutateladze, Mzia; Chkhotua, Archil; Ujmajuridze, Aleksandre; Mehnert, Ulrich; Kessler, Thomas M

2016-01-01

Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are among the most prevalent microbial diseases and their financial burden on society is substantial. The continuing increase of antibiotic resistance worldwide is alarming so that well-tolerated, highly effective therapeutic alternatives are urgently needed. To investigate the effect of bacteriophages on Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae strains isolated from the urine of patients suffering from UTIs. Forty-one E. coli and 9 K. pneumoniae strains, isolated from the urine of patients suffering from UTIs, were tested in vitro for their susceptibility toward bacteriophages. The bacteriophages originated from either commercially available bacteriophage cocktails registered in Georgia or from the bacteriophage collection of the George Eliava Institute of Bacteriophage, Microbiology and Virology. In vitro screening of bacterial strains was performed by use of the spot-test method. The experiments were implemented three times by different groups of scientists. The lytic activity of the commercial bacteriophage cocktails on the 41 E. coli strains varied between 66% (Pyo bacteriophage) and 93% (Enko bacteriophage). After bacteriophage adaptation of the Pyo bacteriophage cocktail, its lytic activity was increased from 66 to 93% and only one E. coli strain remained resistant. One bacteriophage of the Eliava collection could lyse all 9 K. pneumoniae strains. Based on the high lytic activity and the potential of resistance optimization by direct adaption of bacteriophages as reported in this study, and in view of the continuing increase of antibiotic resistance worldwide, bacteriophage therapy is a promising treatment option for UTIs highly warranting randomized controlled trials.

Adaptation policies to increase terrestrial ecosystem resilience. Potential utility of a multicriteria approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

de Bremond, Ariane; Engle, Nathan L.

2014-01-30

Climate change is rapidly undermining terrestrial ecosystem resilience and capacity to continue providing their services to the benefit of humanity and nature. Because of the importance of terrestrial ecosystems to human well-being and supporting services, decision makers throughout the world are busy creating policy responses that secure multiple development and conservation objectives- including that of supporting terrestrial ecosystem resilience in the context of climate change. This article aims to advance analyses on climate policy evaluation and planning in the area of terrestrial ecosystem resilience by discussing adaptation policy options within the ecology-economy-social nexus. The paper evaluates these decisions in themore » realm of terrestrial ecosystem resilience and evaluates the utility of a set of criteria, indicators, and assessment methods, proposed by a new conceptual multi-criteria framework for pro-development climate policy and planning developed by the United Nations Environment Programme. Potential applications of a multicriteria approach to climate policy vis-A -vis terrestrial ecosystems are then explored through two hypothetical case study examples. The paper closes with a brief discussion of the utility of the multi-criteria approach in the context of other climate policy evaluation approaches, considers lessons learned as a result efforts to evaluate climate policy in the realm of terrestrial ecosystems, and reiterates the role of ecosystem resilience in creating sound policies and actions that support the integration of climate change and development goals.« less

Cocaine Addiction: Neurobiology and Related Current Research in Pharmacotherapy.

PubMed

Panikkar, Gopakumar P.

1999-09-01

In this article, recent research studies in the field of cocaine addiction are reviewed, with an eye toward emergent options for treatment innovation. Particular attention is paid to the neurobiology and specific neurotransmitter and receptor mechanisms involved in cocaine abuse, dependence, and other unique phenomena of addiction such as sensitization, craving, compulsive drug use, and withdrawal. The vicissitudes in the dopamine theory of brain reward mechanisms, dopaminergic effects of cocaine, and emerging roles of GABA, serotonin, glutamate, and nitric oxide in cocaine addiction and its sequelae are discussed. Neuroanatomic findings elicited with imaging studies using PET and functional MRI are summarized. These findings support the role of specific brain regions within the dopaminergic system such as the ventral tegmentum and nucleus accumbens in the induction of the cocaine "high" and craving, respectively. Research approaches to the problem of developing effective pharmacotherapeutic options to render cocaine ineffective and modalities under study, such as dopamine uptake inhibitors and immunotherapy, are also discussed in the context of a variety of practical problems faced by these experimental therapies. Pharmacotherapeutic strategies and new directions in this research, such as the adaptive changes of the opioid system in cocaine addiction, are reviewed. Potential areas for further study are brought forth for further debate and possible clinical evaluation.

Clinical research and the development of medical therapeutics.

PubMed

Antman, Elliott M

2014-01-01

Clinical research plays a central role in the development of medical therapeutics, but the current system is estimated to take 10-15 years from initial discovery to regulatory approval, at a cost of approximately US$1 billion. Contrast the paths by which 2 anticoagulant options for atrial fibrillation were discovered and ultimately established as treatment options in clinical medicine. Warfarin was discovered by serendipity and compared with placebo in relatively small trials; this was associated with a low cost of development. The new oral anticoagulants were synthesized to provide highly specific, targeted inhibition of critical steps in the coagulation system. They were compared with warfarin for prevention of stroke and systemic embolic events in large, phase 3 trials; this resulted in very expensive development programs. Neither of these paths is desirable for future development of therapeutics. We need to focus on innovative approaches at the preclinical level (systems approach, greater use of inducible pluripotent stem cells, use of novel bioengineering platforms) and clinical trial level (adaptive design, greater use of new and emerging technology). Focusing on disruptive innovations for development of medical therapeutics has the potential to bring us closer to the goal of precision medicine where safer, more effective treatments are discovered in a more efficient system.

Considerations on long-term immuno-intervention in the treatment of multiple sclerosis: an expert opinion.

PubMed

Grigoriadis, Nikolaos; Linnebank, Michael; Alexandri, Nektaria; Muehl, Sarah; Hofbauer, Günther F L

2016-10-01

As management of multiple sclerosis (MS) requires life-long treatment with disease-modifying agents, any risks associated with long-term use should be considered when evaluating therapeutic options. Immune cells of the innate and adaptive immune systems play various roles in the pathogenesis of MS. MS therapies affect the immune system, each with a unique mode of action, and consequently possess different long-term safety profiles. Rare, but serious safety concerns, including an increased risk of infection and cancer, have been associated with immunosuppressant use. The risks associated with newer immunosuppressive agents, which target specific elements of MS disease pathophysiology, are not yet fully established as the duration of clinical trials is relatively short and post-marketing experience is limited. Non-immunosuppressants used to treat MS have well-defined safety profiles established over a large number of patient-years demonstrating them to be well-tolerated long-term treatment options. When considering the long-term use of disease-modifying agents for treating MS, classification as immunosuppressants or non-immunosuppressants can be useful when evaluating potential risks associated with chronic use. A successful therapeutic strategy for any serious, chronic disease such as MS should weigh effectiveness versus long-term safety of available treatments.

Measuring impairments of functioning and health in patients with axial spondyloarthritis by using the ASAS Health Index and the Environmental Item Set: translation and cross-cultural adaptation into 15 languages.

PubMed

Kiltz, U; van der Heijde, D; Boonen, A; Bautista-Molano, W; Burgos-Vargas, R; Chiowchanwisawakit, P; Duruoz, T; El-Zorkany, B; Essers, I; Gaydukova, I; Géher, P; Gossec, L; Grazio, S; Gu, J; Khan, M A; Kim, T J; Maksymowych, W P; Marzo-Ortega, H; Navarro-Compán, V; Olivieri, I; Patrikos, D; Pimentel-Santos, F M; Schirmer, M; van den Bosch, F; Weber, U; Zochling, J; Braun, J

2016-01-01

The Assessments of SpondyloArthritis international society Health Index (ASAS HI) measures functioning and health in patients with spondyloarthritis (SpA) across 17 aspects of health and 9 environmental factors (EF). The objective was to translate and adapt the original English version of the ASAS HI, including the EF Item Set, cross-culturally into 15 languages. Translation and cross-cultural adaptation has been carried out following the forward-backward procedure. In the cognitive debriefing, 10 patients/country across a broad spectrum of sociodemographic background, were included. The ASAS HI and the EF Item Set were translated into Arabic, Chinese, Croatian, Dutch, French, German, Greek, Hungarian, Italian, Korean, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, Thai and Turkish. Some difficulties were experienced with translation of the contextual factors indicating that these concepts may be more culturally-dependent. A total of 215 patients with axial SpA across 23 countries (62.3% men, mean (SD) age 42.4 (13.9) years) participated in the field test. Cognitive debriefing showed that items of the ASAS HI and EF Item Set are clear, relevant and comprehensive. All versions were accepted with minor modifications with respect to item wording and response option. The wording of three items had to be adapted to improve clarity. As a result of cognitive debriefing, a new response option 'not applicable' was added to two items of the ASAS HI to improve appropriateness. This study showed that the items of the ASAS HI including the EFs were readily adaptable throughout all countries, indicating that the concepts covered were comprehensive, clear and meaningful in different cultures.

Measuring impairments of functioning and health in patients with axial spondyloarthritis by using the ASAS Health Index and the Environmental Item Set: translation and cross-cultural adaptation into 15 languages

PubMed Central

Kiltz, U; van der Heijde, D; Boonen, A; Bautista-Molano, W; Burgos-Vargas, R; Chiowchanwisawakit, P; Duruoz, T; El-Zorkany, B; Essers, I; Gaydukova, I; Géher, P; Gossec, L; Grazio, S; Gu, J; Khan, M A; Kim, T J; Maksymowych, W P; Marzo-Ortega, H; Navarro-Compán, V; Olivieri, I; Patrikos, D; Pimentel-Santos, F M; Schirmer, M; van den Bosch, F; Weber, U; Zochling, J; Braun, J

2016-01-01

Introduction The Assessments of SpondyloArthritis international society Health Index (ASAS HI) measures functioning and health in patients with spondyloarthritis (SpA) across 17 aspects of health and 9 environmental factors (EF). The objective was to translate and adapt the original English version of the ASAS HI, including the EF Item Set, cross-culturally into 15 languages. Methods Translation and cross-cultural adaptation has been carried out following the forward–backward procedure. In the cognitive debriefing, 10 patients/country across a broad spectrum of sociodemographic background, were included. Results The ASAS HI and the EF Item Set were translated into Arabic, Chinese, Croatian, Dutch, French, German, Greek, Hungarian, Italian, Korean, Portuguese, Russian, Spanish, Thai and Turkish. Some difficulties were experienced with translation of the contextual factors indicating that these concepts may be more culturally-dependent. A total of 215 patients with axial SpA across 23 countries (62.3% men, mean (SD) age 42.4 (13.9) years) participated in the field test. Cognitive debriefing showed that items of the ASAS HI and EF Item Set are clear, relevant and comprehensive. All versions were accepted with minor modifications with respect to item wording and response option. The wording of three items had to be adapted to improve clarity. As a result of cognitive debriefing, a new response option ‘not applicable’ was added to two items of the ASAS HI to improve appropriateness. Discussion This study showed that the items of the ASAS HI including the EFs were readily adaptable throughout all countries, indicating that the concepts covered were comprehensive, clear and meaningful in different cultures. PMID:27752358

Study flow diagrams in Cochrane systematic review updates: an adapted PRISMA flow diagram.

PubMed

Stovold, Elizabeth; Beecher, Deirdre; Foxlee, Ruth; Noel-Storr, Anna

2014-05-29

Cochrane systematic reviews are conducted and reported according to rigorous standards. A study flow diagram must be included in a new review, and there is clear guidance from the PRISMA statement on how to do this. However, for a review update, there is currently no guidance on how study flow diagrams should be presented. To address this, a working group was formed to find a solution and produce guidance on how to use these diagrams in review updates.A number of different options were devised for how these flow diagrams could be used in review updates, and also in cases where multiple searches for a review or review update have been conducted. These options were circulated to the Cochrane information specialist community for consultation and feedback. Following the consultation period, the working group refined the guidance and made the recommendation that for review updates an adapted PRISMA flow diagram should be used, which includes an additional box with the number of previously included studies feeding into the total. Where multiple searches have been conducted, the results should be added together and treated as one set of results.There is no existing guidance for using study flow diagrams in review updates. Our adapted diagram is a simple and pragmatic solution for showing the flow of studies in review updates.

Orion Powered Flight Guidance Burn Options for Near Term Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fill, Tom; Goodman, John; Robinson, Shane

2018-01-01

NASA's Orion exploration spacecraft will fly more demanding mission profiles than previous NASA human flight spacecraft. Missions currently under development are destined for cislunar space. The EM-1 mission will fly unmanned to a Distant Retrograde Orbit (DRO) around the Moon. EM-2 will fly astronauts on a mission to the lunar vicinity. To fly these missions, Orion requires powered flight guidance that is more sophisticated than the orbital guidance flown on Apollo and the Space Shuttle. Orion's powered flight guidance software contains five burn guidance options. These five options are integrated into an architecture based on a proven shuttle heritage design, with a simple closed-loop guidance strategy. The architecture provides modularity, simplicity, versatility, and adaptability to future, yet-to-be-defined, exploration mission profiles. This paper provides a summary of the executive guidance architecture and details the five burn options to support both the nominal and abort profiles for the EM-1 and EM-2 missions.

Orion's Powered Flight Guidance Burn Options for Near Term Exploration Missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fill, Thomas; Goodman, John; Robinson, Shane

2018-01-01

NASA's Orion exploration spacecraft will fly more demanding mission profiles than previous NASA human flight spacecraft. Missions currently under development are destined for cislunar space. The EM-1 mission will fly unmanned to a Distant Retrograde Orbit (DRO) around the Moon. EM-2 will fly astronauts on a mission to the lunar vicinity. To fly these missions, Orion requires powered flight guidance that is more sophisticated than the orbital guidance flown on Apollo and the Space Shuttle. Orion's powered flight guidance software contains five burn guidance options. These five options are integrated into an architecture based on a proven shuttle heritage design, with a simple closed-loop guidance strategy. The architecture provides modularity, simplicity, versatility, and adaptability to future, yet-to-be-defined, exploration mission profiles. This paper provides a summary of the executive guidance architecture and details the five burn options to support both the nominal and abort profiles for the EM-1 and EM-2 missions.

Developing COSHH Essentials: dermal exposure, personal protective equipment and first aid.

PubMed

Garrod, A N I; Rajan-Sithamparanadarajah, R

2003-10-01

The 'control banding' approach in COSHH Essentials combines the potential for harm with the potential for exposure by inhalation to band measures to control exposure at source, as generic strategies. These are simply adapted to specific tasks and circumstances to produce specific control advice. Where it is not possible or practical to use this control advice, the control bands can suggest adequate respiratory protective equipment using 'protection factors'. Proposals in the paper enable the user to identify the right level of respiratory protective equipment (RPE), and to begin selecting suitable RPE. Selection is made through a formatted questionnaire, enabling the user to give the right facts to the supplier. COSHH Essentials applies mainly to exposure by inhalation. However, skin exposure is very common and uptake via the skin can be an important contributor to body dose. This paper examines the factors concerning skin exposure, and the options for banding the potential for harm to the skin or via the skin. Proposals have then been made for dermal exposure control. Planning for emergencies is an important facet of risk control. Proposals are outlined to band chemical hazards for emergency planning according to a minimum of information, i.e. the danger symbol on a product label.

FUN3D Manual: 12.9

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biedron, Robert T.; Carlson, Jan-Renee; Derlaga, Joseph M.; Gnoffo, Peter A.; Hammond, Dana P.; Jones, William T.; Kleb, Bil; Lee-Rausch, Elizabeth M.; Nielsen, Eric J.; Park, Michael A.;

FUN3D Manual: 13.2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biedron, Robert T.; Carlson, Jan-Renee; Derlaga, Joseph M.; Gnoffo, Peter A.; Hammond, Dana P.; Jones, William T.; Kleb, William L.; Lee-Rausch, Elizabeth M.; Nielsen, Eric J.; Park, Michael A.;

FUN3D Manual: 12.6

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biedron, Robert T.; Derlaga, Joseph M.; Gnoffo, Peter A.; Hammond, Dana P.; Jones, William T.; Kleb, William L.; Lee-Rausch, Elizabeth M.; Nielsen, Eric J.; Park, Michael A.; Rumsey, Christopher L.;

FUN3D Manual: 12.7

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biedron, Robert T.; Carlson, Jan-Renee; Derlaga, Joseph M.; Gnoffo, Peter A.; Hammond, Dana P.; Jones, William T.; Kleb, Bil; Lee-Rausch, Elizabeth M.; Nielsen, Eric J.; Park, Michael A.;

FUN3D Manual: 12.5

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biedron, Robert T.; Derlaga, Joseph M.; Gnoffo, Peter A.; Hammond, Dana P.; Jones, William T.; Kleb, William L.; Lee-Rausch, Elizabeth M.; Nielsen, Eric J.; Park, Michael A.; Rumsey, Christopher L.;

FUN3D Manual: 12.8

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biedron, Robert T.; Carlson, Jan-Renee; Derlaga, Joseph M.; Gnoffo, Peter A.; Hammond, Dana P.; Jones, William T.; Kleb, Bil; Lee-Rausch, Elizabeth M.; Nielsen, Eric J.; Park, Michael A.;

FUN3D Manual: 12.4

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biedron, Robert T.; Derlaga, Joseph M.; Gnoffo, Peter A.; Hammond, Dana P.; Jones, William T.; Kleb, Bil; Lee-Rausch, Elizabeth M.; Nielsen, Eric J.; Park, Michael A.; Rumsey, Christopher L.;

FUN3D Manual: 13.1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biedron, Robert T.; Carlson, Jan-Renee; Derlaga, Joseph M.; Gnoffo, Peter A.; Hammond, Dana P.; Jones, William T.; Kleb, Bil; Lee-Rausch, Elizabeth M.; Nielsen, Eric J.; Park, Michael A.;

FUN3D Manual: 13.0

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biedron, Robert T.; Carlson, Jan-Renee; Derlaga, Joseph M.; Gnoffo, Peter A.; Hammond, Dana P.; Jones, William T.; Kleb, Bill; Lee-Rausch, Elizabeth M.; Nielsen, Eric J.; Park, Michael A.;

FUN3D Manual: 13.3

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Biedron, Robert T.; Carlson, Jan-Renee; Derlaga, Joseph M.; Gnoffo, Peter A.; Hammond, Dana P.; Jones, William T.; Kleb, Bil; Lee-Rausch, Elizabeth M.; Nielsen, Eric J.; Park, Michael A.;

A framework for the evidence base to support Health Impact Assessment

PubMed Central

Joffe, M; Mindell, J

2002-01-01

Background: HIA can be used to judge the potential health effects of a policy, programme or project on a population, and the distribution of those effects. Progress has been made in incorporating HIA into routine practice, especially (in the UK) at local level. However, these advances have mainly been restricted to process issues, including policy engagement and community involvement, while the evidence base has been relatively neglected. Relating policies to their impact on health: The key distinctive feature of HIA is that determinants of health are not taken as given, but rather as factors that themselves have determinants. Nine ways are distinguished in which evidence on health and its determinants can be related to policy, and examples are given from the literature. The most complete of these is an analysis of health effects in the context of a comparison of options. A simple model, the policy/risk assessment model (PRAM), is introduced as a framework that relates changes in levels of exposures or other risk factors to changes in health status. This approach allows a distinction to be made between the technical process of HIA and the political process of decision making, which involves lines of accountability. Extension of the PRAM model to complex policy areas and its adaptation to non-quantitative examples are discussed. Issues for the future: A sound evidence base is essential to the long term reputation of HIA. Research gaps are discussed, especially the need for evidence connecting policy options with changes in determinants of health. It is proposed that policy options could be considered as "exposure" variables in research. The methodology needs to be developed in the course of work on specific issues, concentrated in policy areas that are relatively tractable. Conclusions: A system of coordination needs to be established, at national or supranational level, building on existing initiatives. The framework suggested in this paper can be used to collate and evaluate what is already known, both to identify gaps where research is required and to enable an informed judgement to be made about the potential health impacts of policy options. These judgements should be made widely available for policy makers and for those undertaking health impact assessment. PMID:11812813

Hamiltonian and potentials in derivative pricing models: exact results and lattice simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baaquie, Belal E.; Corianò, Claudio; Srikant, Marakani

2004-03-01

The pricing of options, warrants and other derivative securities is one of the great success of financial economics. These financial products can be modeled and simulated using quantum mechanical instruments based on a Hamiltonian formulation. We show here some applications of these methods for various potentials, which we have simulated via lattice Langevin and Monte Carlo algorithms, to the pricing of options. We focus on barrier or path dependent options, showing in some detail the computational strategies involved.

Dopamine Modulates Option Generation for Behavior.

PubMed

Ang, Yuen-Siang; Manohar, Sanjay; Plant, Olivia; Kienast, Annika; Le Heron, Campbell; Muhammed, Kinan; Hu, Michele; Husain, Masud

2018-05-21

Animals make innumerable decisions every day, each of which involves evaluating potential options for action. But how are options generated? Although much is now known about decision making when a fixed set of potential options is provided, surprisingly little progress has been made on self-generated options. Some researchers have proposed that such abilities might be modulated by dopamine. Here, we used a new measure of option generation that is quantitative, objective, and culture fair to investigate how humans generate different behavioral options. Participants were asked to draw as many different paths (options) as they could between two points within a fixed time. Healthy individuals (n = 96) exhibited a trade-off between uniqueness (how individually different their options were) and fluency (number of options), generating either many similar or few unique options. To assess influence of dopamine, we first examined patients with Parkinson's disease (n = 35) ON and OFF their dopaminergic medication and compared them to elderly healthy controls (n = 34). Then we conducted a double-blind, placebo-controlled crossover study of the D2 agonist cabergoline in healthy older people (n = 29). Across both studies, dopamine increased fluency but diminished overall uniqueness of options generated, due to the effect of fluency trading off with uniqueness. Crucially, however, when this trade-off was corrected for, dopamine was found to increase uniqueness for any given fluency. Three carefully designed control studies showed that performance on our option-generation task was not related to executing movements, planning actions, or selecting between generated options. These findings show that dopamine plays an important role in modulating option generation. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Soil mapping and processes models to support climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz-Rojas, Miriam; Pereira, Paulo; Brevik, Eric; Cerda, Artemi; Jordan, Antonio

2017-04-01

As agreed in Paris in December 2015, global average temperature is to be limited to "well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels" and efforts will be made to "limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. Thus, reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in all sectors becomes critical and appropriate sustainable land management practices need to be taken (Pereira et al., 2017). Mitigation strategies focus on reducing the rate and magnitude of climate change by reducing its causes. Complementary to mitigation, adaptation strategies aim to minimise impacts and maximize the benefits of new opportunities. The adoption of both practices will require developing system models to integrate and extrapolate anticipated climate changes such as global climate models (GCMs) and regional climate models (RCMs). Furthermore, integrating climate models driven by socio-economic scenarios in soil process models has allowed the investigation of potential changes and threats in soil characteristics and functions in future climate scenarios. One of the options with largest potential for climate change mitigation is sequestering carbon in soils. Therefore, the development of new methods and the use of existing tools for soil carbon monitoring and accounting have therefore become critical in a global change context. For example, soil C maps can help identify potential areas where management practices that promote C sequestration will be productive and guide the formulation of policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. Despite extensive efforts to compile soil information and map soil C, many uncertainties remain in the determination of soil C stocks, and the reliability of these estimates depends upon the quality and resolution of the spatial datasets used for its calculation. Thus, better estimates of soil C pools and dynamics are needed to advance understanding of the C balance and the potential of soils for climate change mitigation. Here, we discuss the most recent advances on the application of soil mapping and modeling to support climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies; and These strategies are a key component of the implementation of sustainable land management policies need to be integrated are critical to. The objective of this work is to present a review about the advantages of soil mapping and process modeling for sustainable land management. Muñoz-Rojas, M., Pereira, P., Brevic, E., Cerda, A., Jordan, A. (2017) Soil mapping and processes models for sustainable land management applied to modern challenges. In: Pereira, P., Brevik, E., Munoz-Rojas, M., Miller, B. (Eds.) Soil mapping and process modelling for sustainable land use management (Elsevier Publishing House) ISBN: 9780128052006

The structure of recreation behavior

Treesearch

Thomas A. More; James R. Averill

2003-01-01

We present a meta-theoretical analysis of recreation concepts as an argument about organizing and explaining recreation behavior. Recreation activities are behavioral constructions that people build from both prototypic subsystems (those present in virtually all instances of the activity) and design subsystems (optional subsystems that adapt the activity to serve...

Agricultural management options for climate variability and change: conservation tillage

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Adapting to climate variability and change can be achieved through a broad range of management alternatives and technological advances. This publication is focused on the use of conservation tillage in crop production systems. The publication outlines ways that conservation tillage can reduce risk r...

Project MOVE Program Planning Kit.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farris, Charlotte J.

This program planning kit contains information and activities on evaluation, change, leadership, and sex stereotyping which provided the basis for planning Project MOVE (Maximizing Options in Vocational Education) programs but which can be generalized and adapted for use in planning other programs. Assumptions ano guidelines based upon theory and…

Chemistry without borders: An overview

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

As chemistry becomes more globalized, it is important for an organization to be interconnected and adaptable, and for an individual to keep up with changes and latest scientific findings and keep options open. Many of the challenges and the opportunities of globalization are in the areas of jobs, re...

Collimated proton pencil-beam scanning for superficial targets: impact of the order of range shifter and aperture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bäumer, C.; Janson, M.; Timmermann, B.; Wulff, J.

2018-04-01

To assess if apertures shall be mounted upstream or downstream of a range shifting block if these field-shaping devices are combined with the pencil-beam scanning delivery technique (PBS). The lateral dose fall-off served as a benchmark parameter. Both options realizing PBS-with-apertures were compared to the uniform scanning mode. We also evaluated the difference regarding the out-of-field dose caused by interactions of protons in beam-shaping devices. The potential benefit of the downstream configuration over the upstream configuration was estimated analytically. Guided by this theoretical evaluation a mechanical adapter was developed which transforms the upstream configuration provided by the proton machine vendor to a downstream configuration. Transversal dose profiles were calculated with the Monte-Carlo based dose engine of the commercial treatment planning system RayStation 6. Two-dimensional dose planes were measured with an ionization chamber array and a scintillation detector at different depths and compared to the calculation. Additionally, a clinical example for the irradiation of the orbit was compared for both PBS options and a uniform scanning treatment plan. Assuming the same air gap the lateral dose fall-off at the field edge at a few centimeter depth is 20% smaller for the aperture-downstream configuration than for the upstream one. For both options of PBS-with-apertures the dose fall-off is larger than in uniform scanning delivery mode if the minimum accelerator energy is 100 MeV. The RayStation treatment planning system calculated the width of the lateral dose fall-off with an accuracy of typically 0.1 mm–0.3 mm. Although experiments and calculations indicate a ranking of the three delivery options regarding lateral dose fall-off, there seems to be a limited impact on a multi-field treatment plan.

The diversity of gendered adaptation strategies to climate change of Indian farmers: A feminist intersectional approach.

PubMed

Ravera, Federica; Martín-López, Berta; Pascual, Unai; Drucker, Adam

2016-12-01

This paper examines climate change adaptation and gender issues through an application of a feminist intersectional approach. This approach permits the identification of diverse adaptation responses arising from the existence of multiple and fragmented dimensions of identity (including gender) that intersect with power relations to shape situation-specific interactions between farmers and ecosystems. Based on results from contrasting research cases in Bihar and Uttarakhand, India, this paper demonstrates, inter alia, that there are geographically determined gendered preferences and adoption strategies regarding adaptation options and that these are influenced by the socio-ecological context and institutional dynamics. Intersecting identities, such as caste, wealth, age and gender, influence decisions and reveal power dynamics and negotiation within the household and the community, as well as barriers to adaptation among groups. Overall, the findings suggest that a feminist intersectional approach does appear to be useful and worth further exploration in the context of climate change adaptation. In particular, future research could benefit from more emphasis on a nuanced analysis of the intra-gender differences that shape adaptive capacity to climate change.

Evaluating options for balancing the water-electricity nexus in California: part 1--securing water availability.

PubMed

Tarroja, Brian; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sobhani, Reza; Feldman, David; Jiang, Sunny; Samuelsen, Scott

2014-11-01

The technical potential and effectiveness of different water supply options for securing water availability in a large-scale, interconnected water supply system under historical and climate-change augmented inflow and demand conditions were compared. Part 1 of the study focused on determining the scale of the options required to secure water availability and compared the effectiveness of different options. A spatially and temporally resolved model of California's major surface reservoirs was developed, and its sensitivity to urban water conservation, desalination, and water reuse was examined. Potential capacities of the different options were determined. Under historical (baseline) hydrology conditions, many individual options were found to be capable of securing water availability alone. Under climate change augment conditions, a portfolio approach was necessary. The water savings from many individual options other than desalination were insufficient in the latter, however, relying on seawater desalination alone requires extreme capacity installations which have energy, brine disposal, management, and cost implications. The importance of identifying and utilizing points of leverage in the system for choosing where to deploy different options is also demonstrated. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptive refinement tools for tetrahedral unstructured grids

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pao, S. Paul (Inventor); Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S. (Inventor)

2011-01-01

An exemplary embodiment providing one or more improvements includes software which is robust, efficient, and has a very fast run time for user directed grid enrichment and flow solution adaptive grid refinement. All user selectable options (e.g., the choice of functions, the choice of thresholds, etc.), other than a pre-marked cell list, can be entered on the command line. The ease of application is an asset for flow physics research and preliminary design CFD analysis where fast grid modification is often needed to deal with unanticipated development of flow details.

A-7 Aloft Demonstration Flight Test Plan

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-09-01

6095979 72A2130 Power Supply 12 VDC 6095681 72A29 NOC 72A30 ALOFT ASCU Adapter Set 72A3100 ALOFT ASCU Adapter L20-249-1 72A3110 Page assy L Bay and ASCU ...checks will also be performed for each of the following: 3.1.2.1.1 ASCU Codes. Verification will be made that all legal ASCU codes are recognized and...invalid codes inhibit attack mode. A check will also be made to verify that the ASCU codes for pilot-option weapons A-25 enable the retarded weapons

Climate change adaptation options in rainfed upland cropping systems in the wet tropics: A case study of smallholder farms in North-West Cambodia.

PubMed

Touch, Van; Martin, Robert John; Scott, Jeannette Fiona; Cowie, Annette; Liu, De Li

2016-11-01

While climate change is confirmed to have serious impacts on agricultural production in many regions worldwide, researchers have proposed various measures that farmers can apply to cope with and adapt to those changes. However, it is often the case that not every adaptation measure would be practical and adoptable in a specific region. Farmers may have their own ways of managing and adapting to climate change that need to be taken into account when considering interventions. This study aimed to engage with farmers to: (1) better understand small-holder knowledge, attitudes and practices in relation to perceived or expected climate change; and (2) document cropping practices, climate change perceptions, constraints to crop production, and coping and adaptation options with existing climate variability and expected climate change. This study was conducted in 2015 in Sala Krau village near Pailin (12°52'N, 102°45'E) and Samlout (12°39'N, 102°36'E) of North-West Cambodia. The methods used were a combination of focus group discussions and one-on-one interviews where 132 farming households were randomly selected. We found that farmers were conscious of changes in climate over recent years, and had a good understanding of likely future changes. While farmers are aware of some practices that can be modified to minimize risk and cope with anticipated changes, they are reluctant to apply them. Furthermore; there are no government agricultural extension services provided at the village level and farmers have relied on each other and other actors in the value chain network for information to support their decision-making. There is a lack of knowledge of the principles of conservation agriculture that urgently require agricultural extension services in the region to build farmer ability to better cope and adapt to climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Examination of commercial aviation operational energy conservation strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

Forty-seven fuel conservation strategies are identified for commercial aviation and the fuel saving potential, costs, constraints, and current implementation levels of these options are examined. This assessment is based on a comprehensive review of published data and discussions with representatives from industry and government. Analyses were performed to quantify the fuel saving potential of each option, and to assess the fuel savings achieved to date by the airline industry. Those options requiring further government support for option implementation were identified, rated, and ranked in accordance with a rating methodology developed in the study. Finally, recommendations are made for future governmentmore » efforts in the area of fuel conservation in commercial aviation.« less

Why Do Irrelevant Alternatives Matter? An fMRI-TMS Study of Context-Dependent Preferences.

PubMed

Chung, Hui-Kuan; Sjöström, Tomas; Lee, Hsin-Ju; Lu, Yi-Ta; Tsuo, Fu-Yun; Chen, Tzai-Shuen; Chang, Chi-Fu; Juan, Chi-Hung; Kuo, Wen-Jui; Huang, Chen-Ying

2017-11-29

Both humans and animals are known to exhibit a violation of rationality known as "decoy effect": introducing an irrelevant option (a decoy) can influence choices among other (relevant) options. Exactly how and why decoys trigger this effect is not known. It may be an example of fast heuristic decision-making, which is adaptive in natural environments, but may lead to biased choices in certain markets or experiments. We used fMRI and transcranial magnetic stimulation to investigate the neural underpinning of the decoy effect of both sexes. The left ventral striatum was more active when the chosen option dominated the decoy. This is consistent with the hypothesis that the presence of a decoy option influences the valuation of other options, making valuation context-dependent even when choices appear fully rational. Consistent with the idea that control is recruited to prevent heuristics from producing biased choices, the right inferior frontal gyrus, often implicated in inhibiting prepotent responses, connected more strongly with the striatum when subjects successfully overrode the decoy effect and made unbiased choices. This is further supported by our transcranial magnetic stimulation experiment: subjects whose right inferior frontal gyrus was temporarily disrupted made biased choices more often than a control group. Our results suggest that the neural basis of the decoy effect could be the context-dependent activation of the valuation area. But the differential connectivity from the frontal area may indicate how deliberate control monitors and corrects errors and biases in decision-making. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Standard theories of rational decision-making assume context-independent valuations of available options. Motivated by the importance of this basic assumption, we used fMRI to study how the human brain assigns values to available options. We found activity in the valuation area to be consistent with the hypothesis that values depend on irrelevant aspects of the environment, even for subjects whose choices appear fully rational. Such context-dependent valuations may lead to biased decision-making. We further found differential connectivity from the frontal area to the valuation area depending on whether biases were successfully overcome. This suggests a mechanism for making rational choices despite the potential bias. Further support was obtained by a transcranial magnetic stimulation experiment, where subjects whose frontal control was temporarily disrupted made biased choices more often than a control group. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/3711647-15$15.00/0.

Can we manage for biological diversity in the absence of science?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Trauger, D.L.; Hall, R.J.

1995-01-01

Conservation of biological diversity is dependent on sound scientific information about underlying ecological processes. Current knowledge of the composition, distribution, abundance and life cycles of most species of plants and animals is incomplete, insufficient, unreliable, or nonexistent. Contemporary managers are also confronted with additional levels of complexity related to varying degrees of knowledge and understanding about interactions of species and ecosystems. Consequently, traditional species-oriented management schemes may have unintended consequences and ecosystem-oriented management initiatives may fail in the face of inadequate or fragmentary information on the structure, function, and dynamics of biotic communities and ecological systems. Nevertheless, resource managers must make decisions and manage based on the best biological information currently available. Adaptive resource management may represent a management paradigm that allows managers to learn something about the species or systems that they are managing while they are managing, but potential pitfalls lurk for such approaches. In addition to lack of control over the primary physical, chemical, and ecological processes, managers also lack control over social, economic, and political parameters affecting resource management options. Moreover, appropriate goals may be difficult to identify and criteria for determining success may be elusive. Some management responsibilities do not lend themselves to adaptive strategies. Finally, the lessons learned from adaptive management are usually obtained from a highly situational context that may limit applicability in a wider range of situations or undermine confidence that problems and solutions were properly diagnosed and addressed. Several scenarios are critically examined where adaptive management approaches may be inappropriate or ineffective and where management for biological diversity may be infeasible or inefficient without a sound scientific basis. Whereas some level of management must exist to meet agency responsibilities, more research is needed to conserve biological diversity.

On the optimality of code options for a universal noiseless coder

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeh, Pen-Shu; Rice, Robert F.; Miller, Warner

1991-01-01

A universal noiseless coding structure was developed that provides efficient performance over an extremely broad range of source entropy. This is accomplished by adaptively selecting the best of several easily implemented variable length coding algorithms. Custom VLSI coder and decoder modules capable of processing over 20 million samples per second are currently under development. The first of the code options used in this module development is shown to be equivalent to a class of Huffman code under the Humblet condition, other options are shown to be equivalent to the Huffman codes of a modified Laplacian symbol set, at specified symbol entropy values. Simulation results are obtained on actual aerial imagery, and they confirm the optimality of the scheme. On sources having Gaussian or Poisson distributions, coder performance is also projected through analysis and simulation.

Evidence for the speed-value trade-off: human and monkey decision making is magnitude sensitive.

PubMed

Pirrone, Angelo; Azab, Habiba; Hayden, Benjamin Y; Stafford, Tom; Marshall, James A R

2018-04-01

Complex natural systems from brains to bee swarms have evolved to make adaptive multifactorial decisions. Recent theoretical and empirical work suggests that many evolved systems may take advantage of common motifs across multiple domains. We are particularly interested in value sensitivity (i.e., sensitivity to the magnitude or intensity of the stimuli or reward under consideration) as a mechanism to resolve deadlocks adaptively. This mechanism favours long-term reward maximization over accuracy in a simple manner, because it avoids costly delays associated with ambivalence between similar options; speed-value trade-offs have been proposed to be evolutionarily advantageous for many kinds of decision. A key prediction of the value-sensitivity hypothesis is that choices between equally-valued options will proceed faster when the options have a high value than when they have a low value. However, value-sensitivity is not part of idealised choice models such as diffusion to bound. Here we examine two different choice behaviours in two different species, perceptual decisions in humans and economic choices in rhesus monkeys, to test this hypothesis. We observe the same value sensitivity in both human perceptual decisions and monkey value-based decisions. These results endorse the idea that neural decision systems make use of the same basic principle of value-sensitivity in order to resolve costly deadlocks and thus improve long-term reward intake.

Evidence for the speed-value trade-off: human and monkey decision making is magnitude sensitive

PubMed Central

Pirrone, Angelo; Azab, Habiba; Hayden, Benjamin Y.; Stafford, Tom; Marshall, James A. R.

2017-01-01

Complex natural systems from brains to bee swarms have evolved to make adaptive multifactorial decisions. Recent theoretical and empirical work suggests that many evolved systems may take advantage of common motifs across multiple domains. We are particularly interested in value sensitivity (i.e., sensitivity to the magnitude or intensity of the stimuli or reward under consideration) as a mechanism to resolve deadlocks adaptively. This mechanism favours long-term reward maximization over accuracy in a simple manner, because it avoids costly delays associated with ambivalence between similar options; speed-value trade-offs have been proposed to be evolutionarily advantageous for many kinds of decision. A key prediction of the value-sensitivity hypothesis is that choices between equally-valued options will proceed faster when the options have a high value than when they have a low value. However, value-sensitivity is not part of idealised choice models such as diffusion to bound. Here we examine two different choice behaviours in two different species, perceptual decisions in humans and economic choices in rhesus monkeys, to test this hypothesis. We observe the same value sensitivity in both human perceptual decisions and monkey value-based decisions. These results endorse the idea that neural decision systems make use of the same basic principle of value-sensitivity in order to resolve costly deadlocks and thus improve long-term reward intake. PMID:29682592

Primary and Secondary Contamination Mechanisms in ASR Modeling and Design of Practical Management

EPA Science Inventory

Aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) is a useful water resource management option for water storage and reuse. Its increased use is recognized in adaptation to the ever increasing problem of water availability, both in timing and flow. Challenges in the ASR process may arise from...

Teachers on Teaching: In a Child's Kitchen

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schenkelberg, Elizabeth

2003-01-01

A new preschool teacher centers her class' curriculum on cooking. She is surprised to learn that not only are cooking options limited by children's health concerns, but young children do not embrace new foods and flavors. Respecting the children's preferences, the teacher adapts the cooking theme to the children's differences and needs.

Primary and Secondary Contamination Mechanisms for Consideration in ASR Modeling and Practical Management

EPA Science Inventory

Aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) is a useful water resource management option for water storage and reuse. Its increased use is recognized in adaptation to the ever increasing problem of water availability, both in timing and flow. Challenges in the ASR process may arise from...

Persons with Mental Retardation and Technology Use Patterns and Needs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Parette, Howard P., Jr.; VanBiervliet, Alan

A questionnaire examining consumer needs, spending, travel, credit options and utilization practices in adaptive/assistive and educational technology was answered by 2,201 Arkansans with disabilities of all ages. This paper emphasizes results relating to Arkansans with mental retardation. Results indicate Medicare/Medicaid as the single most…

Montessori Practices: Options for a Digital Age

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Powell, Mark

2016-01-01

Mark Powell's plea for an open-minded view on the full scope of technology that is compatible with Montessori education enriches Maria Montessori's clear modernism of welcoming science into her educational vision. Growing up digital can be intelligently managed so that "technology may offer an effective, adaptable, and easily available means…

Sea Level Rise National Coastal Property Model

EPA Science Inventory

The impact of sea level rise on coastal properties depends critically on the human response to the threat, which in turn depends on several factors, including the immediacy of the risk, the magnitude of property value at risk, options for adapting to the threat and the cost of th...

Options for Managing Student Behavior: Adaptations for Individual Needs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richardson, Rita C.; Evans, Elizabeth T.

This paper applies principles of situational leadership theory to the management of student behavior problems. First, it summarizes situational leadership, noting the theory's premise that leaders must consider two important factors to gain acceptance and compliance in managing people--the maturity level of the individuals and the nature of the…

Assessment of the Politico-Military Campaign to Counter ISIL and Options for Adaptation

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

on behalf of the Syrian regime starting September 30, 2015, which greatly strengthened the regime’s faltering hand against its armed opponents. The... minimalist approach to partnering will not likely yield sufficient results. The fundamental premise does seem sound: That the only way to gain

Spreadsheet WATERSHED modeling for nonpoint-source pollution management in a Wisconsin basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walker, J.F.; Pickard, S.A.; Sonzogni, W.C.

1989-01-01

Although several sophisticated nonpoint pollution models exist, few are available that are easy to use, cover a variety of conditions, and integrate a wide range of information to allow managers and planners to assess different control strategies. Here, a straightforward pollutant input accounting approach is presented in the form of an existing model (WATERSHED) that has been adapted to run on modern electronic spreadsheets. As an application, WATERSHED is used to assess options to improve the quality of highly eutrophic Delavan Lake in Wisconsin. WATERSHED is flexible in that several techniques, such as the Universal Soil Loss Equation or unit-area loadings, can be used to estimate nonpoint-source inputs. Once the model parameters are determined (and calibrated, if possible), the spreadsheet features can be used to conduct a sensitivity analysis of management options. In the case of Delavan Lake, it was concluded that, although some nonpoint controls were cost-effective, the overall reduction in phosphorus would be insufficient to measurably improve water quality.A straightforward pollutant input accounting approach is presented in the form of an existing model (WATERSHED) that has been adapted to run on modern electronic spreadsheets. As an application, WATERSHED is used to assess options to improve the quality of highly eutrophic Delavan Lake in Wisconsin. WATERSHED is flexible in that several techniques, such as the Universal Soil Loss Equation or unit-area loadings, can be used to estimate nonpoint-source inputs. Once the model parameters are determined (and calibrated, if possible), the spreadsheet features can be used to conduct a sensitivity analysis of management options. In the case of Delavan Lake, it was concluded that, although some nonpoint controls were cost-effective, the overall reduction in phosphorus would be insufficient to measurably improve water quality.

Tool for Ranking Research Options

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ortiz, James N.; Scott, Kelly; Smith, Harold

2005-01-01

Tool for Research Enhancement Decision Support (TREDS) is a computer program developed to assist managers in ranking options for research aboard the International Space Station (ISS). It could likely also be adapted to perform similar decision-support functions in industrial and academic settings. TREDS provides a ranking of the options, based on a quantifiable assessment of all the relevant programmatic decision factors of benefit, cost, and risk. The computation of the benefit for each option is based on a figure of merit (FOM) for ISS research capacity that incorporates both quantitative and qualitative inputs. Qualitative inputs are gathered and partly quantified by use of the time-tested analytical hierarchical process and used to set weighting factors in the FOM corresponding to priorities determined by the cognizant decision maker(s). Then by use of algorithms developed specifically for this application, TREDS adjusts the projected benefit for each option on the basis of levels of technical implementation, cost, and schedule risk. Based partly on Excel spreadsheets, TREDS provides screens for entering cost, benefit, and risk information. Drop-down boxes are provided for entry of qualitative information. TREDS produces graphical output in multiple formats that can be tailored by users.

Energy Savings Potential and RD&D Opportunities for Commercial Building HVAC Systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Goetzler, William; Shandross, Richard; Young, Jim

The Building Technologies Office (BTO) commissioned this characterization and technology assessment of heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems for commercial buildings. The main objectives of this study: Identify a wide range of technology options in varying stages of development that could reduce commercial HVAC energy consumption; Characterize these technology options based on their technical energy-savings potential, development status, non-energy benefits, and other factors affecting end-user acceptance and the ability to compete with conventional HVAC technologies; Make specific recommendations to DOE and other stakeholders on potential research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) activities that would support further development of the most promisingmore » technology options.« less

Active listening room compensation for massive multichannel sound reproduction systems using wave-domain adaptive filtering.

PubMed

Spors, Sascha; Buchner, Herbert; Rabenstein, Rudolf; Herbordt, Wolfgang

2007-07-01

The acoustic theory for multichannel sound reproduction systems usually assumes free-field conditions for the listening environment. However, their performance in real-world listening environments may be impaired by reflections at the walls. This impairment can be reduced by suitable compensation measures. For systems with many channels, active compensation is an option, since the compensating waves can be created by the reproduction loudspeakers. Due to the time-varying nature of room acoustics, the compensation signals have to be determined by an adaptive system. The problems associated with the successful operation of multichannel adaptive systems are addressed in this contribution. First, a method for decoupling the adaptation problem is introduced. It is based on a generalized singular value decomposition and is called eigenspace adaptive filtering. Unfortunately, it cannot be implemented in its pure form, since the continuous adaptation of the generalized singular value decomposition matrices to the variable room acoustics is numerically very demanding. However, a combination of this mathematical technique with the physical description of wave propagation yields a realizable multichannel adaptation method with good decoupling properties. It is called wave domain adaptive filtering and is discussed here in the context of wave field synthesis.

Research Options for Controlling Zoonotic Disease in India, 2010–2015

PubMed Central

Sekar, Nitin; Shah, Naman K.; Abbas, Syed Shahid; Kakkar, Manish

2011-01-01

Background Zoonotic infections pose a significant public health challenge for low- and middle-income countries and have traditionally been a neglected area of research. The Roadmap to Combat Zoonoses in India (RCZI) initiative conducted an exercise to systematically identify and prioritize research options needed to control zoonoses in India. Methods and Findings Priority setting methods developed by the Child Health and Nutrition Research Initiative were adapted for the diversity of sectors, disciplines, diseases and populations relevant for zoonoses in India. A multidisciplinary group of experts identified priority zoonotic diseases and knowledge gaps and proposed research options to address key knowledge gaps within the next five years. Each option was scored using predefined criteria by another group of experts. The scores were weighted using relative ranks among the criteria based upon the feedback of a larger reference group. We categorized each research option by type of research, disease targeted, factorials, and level of collaboration required. We analysed the research options by tabulating them along these categories. Seventeen experts generated four universal research themes and 103 specific research options, the majority of which required a high to medium level of collaboration across sectors. Research options designated as pertaining to ‘social, political and economic’ factorials predominated and scored higher than options focussing on ecological, genetic and biological, or environmental factors. Research options related to ‘health policy and systems’ scored highest while those related to ‘research for development of new interventions’ scored the lowest. Conclusions We methodically identified research themes and specific research options incorporating perspectives of a diverse group of stakeholders. These outputs reflect the diverse nature of challenges posed by zoonoses and should be acceptable across diseases, disciplines, and sectors. The identified research options capture the need for ‘actionable research’ for advancing the prevention and control of zoonoses in India. PMID:21364879

Carbon mitigation potential and costs of forestry options in Brazil, China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines and Tanzania

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sathaye, J.; Makundi, W.; Andrasko, K.

2001-01-01

This paper summarizes studies of carbon (C) mitigation potential and costs of about 40 forestry options in seven developing countries. Each study uses the same methodological approach - Comprehensive Mitigation Assessment Process (COMAP) - to estimate the above parameters between 2000 and 2030. The approach requires the projection of baseline and mitigation land-use scenarios. Coupled with data on a per ha basis on C sequestration or avoidance, and costs and benefits, it allows the estimation of monetary benefit per Mg C, and the total costs and carbon potential. The results show that about half (3.0 Pg C) the cumulative mitigationmore » potential of 6.2 Petagram (Pg) C between 2000 and 2030 in the seven countries (about 200 x 106 Mg C yr-1) could be achieved at a negative cost and the remainder at costs ranging up to $100 Mg C-1. About 5 Pg C could be achieved, at a cost less than $20 per Mg C. Negative cost potential indicates that non-carbon revenue is sufficient to offset direct costs of these options. The achievable potential is likely to be smaller, however, due to market, institutional, and sociocultural barriers that can delay or prevent the implementation of the analyzed options.« less

The Impact of 3-Option Responses to Multiple-Choice Questions on Guessing Strategies and Cut Score Determinations

PubMed Central

ROYAL, KENNETH D.; STOCKDALE, MYRAH R.

2017-01-01

Introduction: Research has asserted MCQ items using three response options (one correct answer with two distractors) is comparable to, and possibly preferable over, traditional MCQ item formats consisting of four response options (e.g., one correct answer with three distractors), or five response options (e.g., one correct answer with four distractors). Some medical educators have also adopted the practice of using 3-option responses on MCQ exams as a response to the difficulty experienced in generating additional plausible distractors. To date, however, little work has explored how 3-option responses might impact validity threats stemming from random guessing strategies, and what impact 3-option responses might have on cut-score determinations, particularly in the context of medical education classroom assessments. The purpose of this work is to further explore these critically important considerations that largely have gone ignored in the medical education literature to this point. Methods: A cumulative binomial distribution formula was used to calculate the probability that an examinee will answer at random a given number of items correctly on any exam (of any length). By way of a demonstration, a variety of scenarios were presented to illustrate how examination length and the number of response options impact examinees’ chances of passing a given examination, and how subsequent cut-score decisions may be impacted by these factors. Results: As a general rule, classroom assessments containing fewer items should utilize traditional 4-option or 5-option responses, whereas assessments of greater length are afforded greater flexibility in potentially utilizing 3-option responses. Conclusions: More research on items with 3-option responses is needed to better understand what value, if any, 3-option responses truly add to classroom assessments, and in what contexts potential benefits might be discernible. PMID:28367465

The Impact of 3-Option Responses to Multiple-Choice Questions on Guessing Strategies and Cut Score Determinations.

PubMed

Royal, Kenneth D; Stockdale, Myrah R

2017-04-01

Research has asserted MCQ items using three response options (one correct answer with two distractors) is comparable to, and possibly preferable over, traditional MCQ item formats consisting of four response options (e.g., one correct answer with three distractors), or five response options (e.g., one correct answer with four distractors). Some medical educators have also adopted the practice of using 3-option responses on MCQ exams as a response to the difficulty experienced in generating additional plausible distractors. To date, however, little work has explored how 3-option responses might impact validity threats stemming from random guessing strategies, and what impact 3-option responses might have on cut-score determinations, particularly in the context of medical education classroom assessments. The purpose of this work is to further explore these critically important considerations that largely have gone ignored in the medical education literature to this point. A cumulative binomial distribution formula was used to calculate the probability that an examinee will answer at random a given number of items correctly on any exam (of any length). By way of a demonstration, a variety of scenarios were presented to illustrate how examination length and the number of response options impact examinees' chances of passing a given examination, and how subsequent cut-score decisions may be impacted by these factors. As a general rule, classroom assessments containing fewer items should utilize traditional 4-option or 5-option responses, whereas assessments of greater length are afforded greater flexibility in potentially utilizing 3-option responses. More research on items with 3-option responses is needed to better understand what value, if any, 3-option responses truly add to classroom assessments, and in what contexts potential benefits might be discernible.

Addressing Climate Change in Long-Term Water Planning Using Robust Decisionmaking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Groves, D. G.; Lempert, R.

2008-12-01

Addressing climate change in long-term natural resource planning is difficult because future management conditions are deeply uncertain and the range of possible adaptation options are so extensive. These conditions pose challenges to standard optimization decision-support techniques. This talk will describe a methodology called Robust Decisionmaking (RDM) that can complement more traditional analytic approaches by utilizing screening-level water management models to evaluate large numbers of strategies against a wide range of plausible future scenarios. The presentation will describe a recent application of the methodology to evaluate climate adaptation strategies for the Inland Empire Utilities Agency in Southern California. This project found that RDM can provide a useful way for addressing climate change uncertainty and identify robust adaptation strategies.

Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient

PubMed Central

Kates, Robert W.; Travis, William R.; Wilbanks, Thomas J.

2012-01-01

All human–environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations. PMID:22509036

Transformational adaptation when incremental adaptations to climate change are insufficient.

PubMed

Kates, Robert W; Travis, William R; Wilbanks, Thomas J

2012-05-08

All human-environment systems adapt to climate and its natural variation. Adaptation to human-induced change in climate has largely been envisioned as increments of these adaptations intended to avoid disruptions of systems at their current locations. In some places, for some systems, however, vulnerabilities and risks may be so sizeable that they require transformational rather than incremental adaptations. Three classes of transformational adaptations are those that are adopted at a much larger scale, that are truly new to a particular region or resource system, and that transform places and shift locations. We illustrate these with examples drawn from Africa, Europe, and North America. Two conditions set the stage for transformational adaptation to climate change: large vulnerability in certain regions, populations, or resource systems; and severe climate change that overwhelms even robust human use systems. However, anticipatory transformational adaptation may be difficult to implement because of uncertainties about climate change risks and adaptation benefits, the high costs of transformational actions, and institutional and behavioral actions that tend to maintain existing resource systems and policies. Implementing transformational adaptation requires effort to initiate it and then to sustain the effort over time. In initiating transformational adaptation focusing events and multiple stresses are important, combined with local leadership. In sustaining transformational adaptation, it seems likely that supportive social contexts and the availability of acceptable options and resources for actions are key enabling factors. Early steps would include incorporating transformation adaptation into risk management and initiating research to expand the menu of innovative transformational adaptations.

Cost, energy, global warming, eutrophication and local human health impacts of community water and sanitation service options.

PubMed

Schoen, Mary E; Xue, Xiaobo; Wood, Alison; Hawkins, Troy R; Garland, Jay; Ashbolt, Nicholas J

2017-02-01

We compared water and sanitation system options for a coastal community across selected sustainability metrics, including environmental impact (i.e., life cycle eutrophication potential, energy consumption, and global warming potential), equivalent annual cost, and local human health impact. We computed normalized metric scores, which we used to discuss the options' strengths and weaknesses, and conducted sensitivity analysis of the scores to changes in variable and uncertain input parameters. The alternative systems, which combined centralized drinking water with sanitation services based on the concepts of energy and nutrient recovery as well as on-site water reuse, had reduced environmental and local human health impacts and costs than the conventional, centralized option. Of the selected sustainability metrics, the greatest advantages of the alternative community water systems (compared to the conventional system) were in terms of local human health impact and eutrophication potential, despite large, outstanding uncertainties. Of the alternative options, the systems with on-site water reuse and energy recovery technologies had the least local human health impact; however, the cost of these options was highly variable and the energy consumption was comparable to on-site alternatives without water reuse or energy recovery, due to on-site reuse treatment. Future work should aim to reduce the uncertainty in the energy recovery process and explore the health risks associated with less costly, on-site water treatment options. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Global climate change: the quantifiable sustainability challenge.

PubMed

Princiotta, Frank T; Loughlin, Daniel H

2014-09-01

Population growth and the pressures spawned by increasing demands for energy and resource-intensive goods, foods, and services are driving unsustainable growth in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Recent GHG emission trends are consistent with worst-case scenarios of the previous decade. Dramatic and near-term emission reductions likely will be needed to ameliorate the potential deleterious impacts of climate change. To achieve such reductions, fundamental changes are required in the way that energy is generated and used. New technologies must be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear and transportation technologies are particularly important; however, global research and development efforts related to these technologies currently appear to fall short relative to needs. Even with a proactive and international mitigation effort, humanity will need to adapt to climate change, but the adaptation needs and damages will be far greater if mitigation activities are not pursued in earnest. In this review, research is highlighted that indicates increasing global and regional temperatures and ties climate changes to increasing GHG emissions. GHG mitigation targets necessary for limiting future global temperature increases are discussed, including how factors such as population growth and the growing energy intensity of the developing world will make these reduction targets more challenging. Potential technological pathways for meeting emission reduction targets are examined, barriers are discussed, and global and US. modeling results are presented that suggest that the necessary pathways will require radically transformed electric and mobile sectors. While geoengineering options have been proposed to allow more time for serious emission reductions, these measures are at the conceptual stage with many unanswered cost, environmental, and political issues. Implications: This paper lays out the case that mitigating the potential for catastrophic climate change will be a monumental challenge, requiring the global community to transform its energy system in an aggressive, coordinated, and timely manner. If this challenge is to be met, new technologies will have to be developed and deployed at a rapid rate. Advances in carbon capture and storage, renewable, nuclear, and transportation technologies are particularly important. Even with an aggressive international mitigation effort, humanity will still need to adapt to significant climate change.

32 CFR 1900.14 - Fee estimates (pre-request option).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Fee estimates (pre-request option). 1900.14 Section 1900.14 National Defense Other Regulations Relating to National Defense CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE... § 1900.14 Fee estimates (pre-request option). In order to avoid unanticipated or potentially large fees...

32 CFR 1800.14 - Fee estimates (pre-request option).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 32 National Defense 6 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Fee estimates (pre-request option). 1800.14 Section 1800.14 National Defense Other Regulations Relating to National Defense NATIONAL... Requests § 1800.14 Fee estimates (pre-request option). In order to avoid unanticipated or potentially large...

Flexible Reporting Options for Skilled Child Abuse Professionals.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finkelhor, David; Zellman, Gail L.

1991-01-01

Proposed is a system of flexible options for the mandated reporting of child abuse and neglect, to improve compliance with and reduce burdens on the child protective system. Potential benefits and drawbacks of the plan, which would identify and train "registered reporters" and offer the option of explicit deferred investigation, are…

Multiple ecosystem services in a working landscape

PubMed Central

Eastburn, Danny J.; O’Geen, Anthony T.; Tate, Kenneth W.; Roche, Leslie M.

2017-01-01

Policy makers and practitioners are in need of useful tools and models for assessing ecosystem service outcomes and the potential risks and opportunities of ecosystem management options. We utilize a state-and-transition model framework integrating dynamic soil and vegetation properties to examine multiple ecosystem services—specifically agricultural production, biodiversity and habitat, and soil health—across human created vegetation states in a managed oak woodland landscape in a Mediterranean climate. We found clear tradeoffs and synergies in management outcomes. Grassland states maximized agricultural productivity at a loss of soil health, biodiversity, and other ecosystem services. Synergies existed among multiple ecosystem services in savanna and woodland states with significantly larger nutrient pools, more diversity and native plant richness, and less invasive species. This integrative approach can be adapted to a diversity of working landscapes to provide useful information for science-based ecosystem service valuations, conservation decision making, and management effectiveness assessments. PMID:28301475

Multiple ecosystem services in a working landscape.

PubMed

Eastburn, Danny J; O'Geen, Anthony T; Tate, Kenneth W; Roche, Leslie M

2017-01-01

Policy makers and practitioners are in need of useful tools and models for assessing ecosystem service outcomes and the potential risks and opportunities of ecosystem management options. We utilize a state-and-transition model framework integrating dynamic soil and vegetation properties to examine multiple ecosystem services-specifically agricultural production, biodiversity and habitat, and soil health-across human created vegetation states in a managed oak woodland landscape in a Mediterranean climate. We found clear tradeoffs and synergies in management outcomes. Grassland states maximized agricultural productivity at a loss of soil health, biodiversity, and other ecosystem services. Synergies existed among multiple ecosystem services in savanna and woodland states with significantly larger nutrient pools, more diversity and native plant richness, and less invasive species. This integrative approach can be adapted to a diversity of working landscapes to provide useful information for science-based ecosystem service valuations, conservation decision making, and management effectiveness assessments.

Reward and decision processes in the brains of humans and nonhuman primates.

PubMed

Sirigu, Angela; Duhamel, Jean-René

2016-03-01

Choice behavior requires weighing multiple decision variables, such as utility, uncertainty, delay, or effort, that combine to define a subjective value for each considered option or course of action. This capacity is based on prior learning about potential rewards (and punishments) that result from prior actions. When made in a social context, decisions can involve strategic thinking about the intentions of others and about the impact of others' behavior on one's own outcome. Valuation is also influenced by different emotions that serve to adaptively regulate our choices in order to, for example, stay away from excessively risky gambles, prevent future regrets, or avoid personal rejection or conflicts. Drawing on economic theory and on advances in the study of neuronal mechanisms, we review relevant recent experiments in nonhuman primates and clinical observations made in neurologically impaired patients suffering from impaired decision-making capacities.

Coral bleaching pathways under the control of regional temperature variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Langlais, C. E.; Lenton, A.; Heron, S. F.; Evenhuis, C.; Sen Gupta, A.; Brown, J. N.; Kuchinke, M.

2017-11-01

Increasing sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are predicted to adversely impact coral populations worldwide through increasing thermal bleaching events. Future bleaching is unlikely to be spatially uniform. Therefore, understanding what determines regional differences will be critical for adaptation management. Here, using a cumulative heat stress metric, we show that characteristics of regional SST determine the future bleaching risk patterns. Incorporating observed information on SST variability, in assessing future bleaching risk, provides novel options for management strategies. As a consequence, the known biases in climate model variability and the uncertainties in regional warming rate across climate models are less detrimental than previously thought. We also show that the thresholds used to indicate reef viability can strongly influence a decision on what constitutes a potential refugia. Observing and understanding the drivers of regional variability, and the viability limits of coral reefs, is therefore critical for making meaningful projections of coral bleaching risk.

Reward and decision processes in the brains of humans and nonhuman primates

PubMed Central

Sirigu, Angela; Duhamel, Jean-René

2016-01-01

Choice behavior requires weighing multiple decision variables, such as utility, uncertainty, delay, or effort, that combine to define a subjective value for each considered option or course of action. This capacity is based on prior learning about potential rewards (and punishments) that result from prior actions. When made in a social context, decisions can involve strategic thinking about the intentions of others and about the impact of others' behavior on one's own outcome. Valuation is also influenced by different emotions that serve to adaptively regulate our choices in order to, for example, stay away from excessively risky gambles, prevent future regrets, or avoid personal rejection or conflicts. Drawing on economic theory and on advances in the study of neuronal mechanisms, we review relevant recent experiments in nonhuman primates and clinical observations made in neurologically impaired patients suffering from impaired decision-making capacities. PMID:27069379

Panarchy use in environmental science for risk and resilience ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Environmental sciences have an important role in informing sustainable management of built environments by providing insights about the drivers and potentially negative impacts of global environmental change. Here, we discuss panarchy theory, a multi-scale hierarchical concept that accounts for the dynamism of complex socio-ecological systems, especially for those systems with strong cross-scale feedbacks. The idea of panarchy underlies much of system resilience, focusing on how systems respond to known and unknown threats. Panarchy theory can provide a framework for qualitative and quantitative research and application in the environmental sciences, which can in turn inform the ongoing efforts in socio-technical resilience thinking and adaptive and transformative approaches to management. The environmental sciences strive for understanding, mitigating and reversing the negative impacts of global environmental change, including chemical pollution, to maintain sustainability options for the future, and therefore play an important role for informing management.

Mitigation potential and cost in tropical forestry - relative role for agroforestry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makundi, Willy R.; Sathaye, Jayant A.

2004-01-01

This paper summarizes studies of carbon mitigation potential (MP) and costs of forestry options in seven developing countries with a focus on the role of agroforestry. A common methodological approach known as comprehensive mitigation assessment process (COMAP) was used in each study to estimate the potential and costs between 2000 and 2030. The approach requires the projection of baseline and mitigation land-use scenarios derived from the demand for forest products and forestland for other uses such as agriculture and pasture. By using data on estimated carbon sequestration, emission avoidance, costs and benefits, the model enables one to estimate cost effectivenessmore » indicators based on monetary benefit per t C, as well as estimates of total mitigation costs and potential when the activities are implemented at equilibrium level. The results show that about half the MP of 6.9 Gt C (an average of 223 Mt C per year) between 2000 and 2030 in the seven countries could be achieved at a negative cost, and the other half at costs not exceeding $100 per t C. Negative cost indicates that non-carbon revenue is sufficient to offset direct costs of about half of the options. The agroforestry options analyzed bear a significant proportion of the potential at medium to low cost per t C when compared to other options. The role of agroforestry in these countries varied between 6% and 21% of the MP, though the options are much more cost effective than most due to the low wage or opportunity cost of rural labor. Agroforestry options are attractive due to the large number of people and potential area currently engaged in agriculture, but they pose unique challenges for carbon and cost accounting due to the dispersed nature of agricultural activities in the tropics, as well as specific difficulties arising from requirements for monitoring, verification, leakage assessment and the establishment of credible baselines.« less

Reconciling traditional knowledge, food security, and climate change: experience from Old Crow, YT, Canada.

PubMed

Douglas, Vasiliki; Chan, Hing Man; Wesche, Sonia; Dickson, Cindy; Kassi, Norma; Netro, Lorraine; Williams, Megan

2014-01-01

Because of a lack of transportation infrastructure, Old Crow has the highest food costs and greatest reliance on traditional food species for sustenance of any community in Canada's Yukon Territory. Environmental, cultural, and economic change are driving increased perception of food insecurity in Old Crow. To address community concerns regarding food security and supply in Old Crow and develop adaptation strategies to ameliorate their impact on the community. A community adaptation workshop was held on October 13, 2009, in which representatives of different stakeholders in the community discussed a variety of food security issues facing Old Crow and how they could be dealt with. Workshop data were analyzed using keyword, subject, and narrative analysis techniques to determine community priorities in food security and adaptation. Community concern is high and favored adaptation options include agriculture, improved food storage, and conservation through increased traditional education. These results were presented to the community for review and revision, after which the Vuntut Gwitchin Government will integrate them into its ongoing adaptation planning measures.

Agricultural Adaptations to Climate Changes in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, K.; Sultan, B.; Lobell, D. B.; Biasutti, M.; Piani, C.; Hammer, G. L.; McLean, G.

2014-12-01

Agricultural production in West Africa is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change and a fast growing demand for food adds yet another challenge. Assessing possible adaptation strategies of crop production in West Africa under climate change is thus critical for ensuring regional food security and improving human welfare. Our previous efforts have identified as the main features of climate change in West Africa a robust increase in temperature and a complex shift in the rainfall pattern (i.e. seasonality delay and total amount change). Unaddressed, these robust climate changes would reduce regional crop production by up to 20%. In the current work, we use two well-validated crop models (APSIM and SARRA-H) to comprehensively assess different crop adaptation options under future climate scenarios. Particularly, we assess adaptations in both the choice of crop types and management strategies. The expected outcome of this study is to provide West Africa with region-specific adaptation recommendations that take into account both climate variability and climate change.

Targeting multiple heterogeneous hardware platforms with OpenCL

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, Paul A.; Kozacik, Stephen T.; Humphrey, John R.; Paolini, Aaron; Kuller, Aryeh; Kelmelis, Eric J.

2014-06-01

The OpenCL API allows for the abstract expression of parallel, heterogeneous computing, but hardware implementations have substantial implementation differences. The abstractions provided by the OpenCL API are often insufficiently high-level to conceal differences in hardware architecture. Additionally, implementations often do not take advantage of potential performance gains from certain features due to hardware limitations and other factors. These factors make it challenging to produce code that is portable in practice, resulting in much OpenCL code being duplicated for each hardware platform being targeted. This duplication of effort offsets the principal advantage of OpenCL: portability. The use of certain coding practices can mitigate this problem, allowing a common code base to be adapted to perform well across a wide range of hardware platforms. To this end, we explore some general practices for producing performant code that are effective across platforms. Additionally, we explore some ways of modularizing code to enable optional optimizations that take advantage of hardware-specific characteristics. The minimum requirement for portability implies avoiding the use of OpenCL features that are optional, not widely implemented, poorly implemented, or missing in major implementations. Exposing multiple levels of parallelism allows hardware to take advantage of the types of parallelism it supports, from the task level down to explicit vector operations. Static optimizations and branch elimination in device code help the platform compiler to effectively optimize programs. Modularization of some code is important to allow operations to be chosen for performance on target hardware. Optional subroutines exploiting explicit memory locality allow for different memory hierarchies to be exploited for maximum performance. The C preprocessor and JIT compilation using the OpenCL runtime can be used to enable some of these techniques, as well as to factor in hardware-specific optimizations as necessary.

Los Alamos RAGE Simulations of the HAIV Mission Concept

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weaver, Robert P.; Barbee, Brent W.; Wie, Bong; Zimmerman, Ben

2015-01-01

The mitigation of potentially hazardous objects (PHOs) can be accomplished by a variety of methods including kinetic impactors, gravity tractors and several nuclear explosion options. Depending on the available lead time prior to Earth impact, non- nuclear options can be very effective at altering a PHOs orbit. However if the warning time is short nuclear options are generally deemed most effective at mitigating the hazard. The NIAC mission concept for a nuclear mission has been presented at several meetings, including the last PDC (2013).We use the adaptive mesh hydrocode RAGE to perform detailed simulations of this Hypervelocity Asteroid Intercept Vehicle (HAIV) mission concept. We use the RAGE code to simulate the crater formation by the kinetic impactor as well as the explosion and energy coupling from the follower nuclear explosive device (NED) timed to detonate below the original surface to enhance the energy coupling. The RAGE code has been well validated for a wide variety of applications. A parametric study will be shown of the energy and momentum transfer to the target 100 m diameter object: 1) the HAIV mission as planned; 2) a surface explosion and 3) a subsurface (contained) explosion; both 2) and 3) use the same source energy as 1).Preliminary RAGE simulations show that the kinetic impactor will carve out a surface crater on the object and the subsequent NED explosion at the bottom of the crater transfers energy and momentum to the target effectively moving it off its Earth crossing orbit. Figure 1 shows the initial (simplified) RAGE 2D setup geometry for this study. Figure 2 shows the crater created by the kinetic impactor and Figure 3 shows the time sequence of the energy transfer to the target by the NED.

Wavefront sensorless adaptive optics ophthalmoscopy in the human eye

PubMed Central

Hofer, Heidi; Sredar, Nripun; Queener, Hope; Li, Chaohong; Porter, Jason

2011-01-01

Wavefront sensor noise and fidelity place a fundamental limit on achievable image quality in current adaptive optics ophthalmoscopes. Additionally, the wavefront sensor ‘beacon’ can interfere with visual experiments. We demonstrate real-time (25 Hz), wavefront sensorless adaptive optics imaging in the living human eye with image quality rivaling that of wavefront sensor based control in the same system. A stochastic parallel gradient descent algorithm directly optimized the mean intensity in retinal image frames acquired with a confocal adaptive optics scanning laser ophthalmoscope (AOSLO). When imaging through natural, undilated pupils, both control methods resulted in comparable mean image intensities. However, when imaging through dilated pupils, image intensity was generally higher following wavefront sensor-based control. Despite the typically reduced intensity, image contrast was higher, on average, with sensorless control. Wavefront sensorless control is a viable option for imaging the living human eye and future refinements of this technique may result in even greater optical gains. PMID:21934779

Adapting a rapid assessment protocol to environmentally assess palm swamp (Veredas) springs in the Cerrado biome, Brazil.

PubMed

Guimarães, Ariane; de Lima Rodrigues, Aline Sueli; Malafaia, Guilherme

2017-10-30

The exploitation and degradation of natural environments exert intense pressure on important ecosystems worldwide. Thus, it is necessary developing or adapting assessment methods to monitor environmental changes and to generate results to be applied to environmental management programs. The Brazilian Veredas (phytophysiognomies typical to the Cerrado biome) are threatened by several human activities; thus, the aim of the present study is to adapt a rapid assessment protocol (RAP) to be applied to Veredas springs, by using the upper course of the Vai-e-Vem stream watershed (Ipameri County, Goiás State, Brazil). Therefore, several springs in the study site were visited and 11 of them were considered Veredas springs. After the RAP was adapted, the instrument was validated and used to environmentally assess the springs in order to demonstrate its applicability. The present study has provided an instrument of option to monitor Veredas springs.

Gender perspectives in resilience, vulnerability and adaptation to global environmental change.

PubMed

Ravera, Federica; Iniesta-Arandia, Irene; Martín-López, Berta; Pascual, Unai; Bose, Purabi

2016-12-01

The main goal of this special issue is to offer a room for interdisciplinary and engaged research in global environmental change (GEC), where gender plays a key role in building resilience and adaptation pathways. In this editorial paper, we explain the background setting, key questions and core approaches of gender and feminist research in vulnerability, resilience and adaptation to GEC. Highlighting the interlinkages between gender and GEC, we introduce the main contributions of the collection of 11 papers in this special issue. Nine empirical papers from around the globe allow to understand how gendered diversity in knowledge, institutions and everyday practices matters in producing barriers and options for achieving resilience and adaptive capacity in societies. Additionally, two papers contribute to the theoretical debate through a systematic review and an insight on the relevance of intersectional framings within GEC research and development programming.

Efficient numerical method for solving Cauchy problem for the Gamma equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koleva, Miglena N.

2011-12-01

In this work we consider Cauchy problem for the so called Gamma equation, derived by transforming the fully nonlinear Black-Scholes equation for option price into a quasilinear parabolic equation for the second derivative (Greek) Γ = VSS of the option price V. We develop an efficient numerical method for solving the model problem concerning different volatility terms. Using suitable change of variables the problem is transformed on finite interval, keeping original behavior of the solution at the infinity. Then we construct Picard-Newton algorithm with adaptive mesh step in time, which can be applied also in the case of non-differentiable functions. Results of numerical simulations are given.

Use of technology for educating melanoma patients.

PubMed

Marble, Nicole; Loescher, Lois J; Lim, Kyung Hee; Hiscox, Heather

2010-09-01

We evaluated the feasibility of using technology for melanoma patient education in a clinic setting. We assessed technology skill level and preferences for education. Data were collected using an adapted version of the Use of Technology Survey. Most participants owned a computer and DVD player and were skilled in the use of these devices, along with Internet and e-mail. Participants preferred the option of using in-clinic and at-home technology versus in-clinic only use. Computer and DVD applications were preferred because they were familiar and convenient. Using technology for patient education intervention is a viable option; however, patients' skill level and preferences for technology should be considered.

Adaption to Extreme Rainfall with Open Urban Drainage System: An Integrated Hydrological Cost-Benefit Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qianqian; Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2013-03-01

This paper presents a cross-disciplinary framework for assessment of climate change adaptation to increased precipitation extremes considering pluvial flood risk as well as additional environmental services provided by some of the adaptation options. The ability of adaptation alternatives to cope with extreme rainfalls is evaluated using a quantitative flood risk approach based on urban inundation modeling and socio-economic analysis of corresponding costs and benefits. A hedonic valuation model is applied to capture the local economic gains or losses from more water bodies in green areas. The framework was applied to the northern part of the city of Aarhus, Denmark. We investigated four adaptation strategies that encompassed laissez-faire, larger sewer pipes, local infiltration units, and open drainage system in the urban green structure. We found that when taking into account environmental amenity effects, an integration of open drainage basins in urban recreational areas is likely the best adaptation strategy, followed by pipe enlargement and local infiltration strategies. All three were improvements compared to the fourth strategy of no measures taken.

Adaption to extreme rainfall with open urban drainage system: an integrated hydrological cost-benefit analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, Qianqian; Panduro, Toke Emil; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2013-03-01

This paper presents a cross-disciplinary framework for assessment of climate change adaptation to increased precipitation extremes considering pluvial flood risk as well as additional environmental services provided by some of the adaptation options. The ability of adaptation alternatives to cope with extreme rainfalls is evaluated using a quantitative flood risk approach based on urban inundation modeling and socio-economic analysis of corresponding costs and benefits. A hedonic valuation model is applied to capture the local economic gains or losses from more water bodies in green areas. The framework was applied to the northern part of the city of Aarhus, Denmark. We investigated four adaptation strategies that encompassed laissez-faire, larger sewer pipes, local infiltration units, and open drainage system in the urban green structure. We found that when taking into account environmental amenity effects, an integration of open drainage basins in urban recreational areas is likely the best adaptation strategy, followed by pipe enlargement and local infiltration strategies. All three were improvements compared to the fourth strategy of no measures taken.

Collaboration in natural resource governance: reconciling stakeholder expectations in deer management in Scotland.

PubMed

Davies, Althea L; White, Rehema M

2012-12-15

The challenges of integrated, adaptive and ecosystem management are leading government agencies to adopt participatory modes of engagement. Collaborative governance is a form of participation in which stakeholders co-produce goals and strategies and share responsibilities and resources. We assess the potential and challenges of collaborative governance as a mechanism to provide an integrated, ecosystem approach to natural resource management, using red deer in Scotland as a case study. Collaborative Deer Management Groups offer a well-established example of a 'bridging organisation', intended to reduce costs and facilitate decision making and learning across institutions and scales. We examine who initiates collaborative processes and why, what roles different actors adopt and how these factors influence the outcomes, particularly at a time of changing values, management and legislative priorities. Our findings demonstrate the need for careful consideration of where and how shared responsibility might be best implemented and sustained as state agencies often remain key to the process, despite the partnership intention. Differing interpretations between agencies and landowners of the degree of autonomy and division of responsibilities involved in 'collaboration' can create tension, while the diversity of landowner priorities brings additional challenges for defining shared goals in red deer management and in other cases. Effective maintenance depends on appropriate role allocation and adoption of responsibilities, definition of convergent values and goals, and establishing communication and trust in institutional networks. Options that may help private stakeholders offset the costs of accepting responsibility for delivering public benefits need to be explicitly addressed to build capacity and support adaptation. This study indicates that collaborative governance has the potential to help reconcile statutory obligations with stakeholder empowerment. The potential of collaboration to reduce the costs of sustainable management remains contentious and, in times of increasing resource constraints, the potential mismatch between resource investment and anticipated goals is likely to become a critical issue, which may challenge the goals and capacity of the state and existing managers. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

2018-01-01

This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to climate change.

Using info-Gap Decision Theory for Water Resources Planning Under Severe Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Korteling, B.; Brazier, R.; Kapelan, Z.; Dessai, S.

2012-12-01

Water resource managers are required to develop comprehensive water resource plans based on severely uncertain information of the effects of climate change on local hydrology and future socio-economic changes on localised demand. In England and Wales, current water resource planning methodologies include a headroom estimation process that quantifies uncertainty based on only one point of an assumed range of deviations from the expected climate and projected demand 25 years into the future. There are many situations where there is not enough knowledge to be able to estimate a representative probability of occurrence, or to be confident that the tails of an assumed probability distribution will not exhibit unexpected skewness, or that the kurtosis of a distribution differs from the norm. These situations can be considered severely uncertain. Information-Gap decision theory offers a method to sample a wider range of uncertainty than with traditional methods, and as a result, compare the robustness of various water resource management options under conditions of severe uncertainty. A more robust management option is one that delivers the same level of performance as other options at higher levels of uncertainty. A case study is based on a Water Supply Area that encompasses the county of Cornwall in southwest England containing 17 reservoirs and 19 demand nodes. The performance success of management options are evaluated primarily by measures of water availability including a reservoir risk measure that tests the probability and magnitude that strategic reservoir storage levels fall below the drought management curve under adverse conditions and also a safety margin deficit that tests how quickly reservoir levels can return to optimum operating levels in favourable conditions. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) is used to test the effectiveness of different management options with different weightings for metrics other than water availability including; capital and operating costs, costs to customers, carbon emissions, environmental impact and social acceptability. Findings show that beyond the uncertainty range explored with the traditional headroom method, preference reversals can occur, i.e. some management options that underperform at lower uncertainties, outperform at higher levels of uncertainty. This study also shows that when 50% or more of the population adopts demand side management, efficiency related measures and innovative options such as rainwater collection can perform equally well or better than some supply side options. The additional use of MCDA shifts the focus away from reservoir expansion options that perform best with respect to water availability, to combined strategies that include innovative demand side management actions of rainwater collection and greywater reuse as well as efficiency measures and additional regional transfers. This research illustrates how an Info-Gap based approach can offer a comprehensive picture of potential supply/demand futures and a rich variety of information to support adaptive management of water systems under severe uncertainty.

Carbon dioxide removal and tradeable put options at scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lockley, Andrew; Coffman, D.’Maris

2018-05-01

Options are derivative contracts that give the purchaser the right to buy (call options) or sell (put options) a given underlying asset at a particular price at a future date. The purchaser of a put option may exercise the right to sell the asset to the issuer at any point in the future before the expiration of the contract. These rights may be contracted directly between two parties (i.e. over-the-counter), or may be sold publicly on formal exchanges, such as the Chicago Board Options Exchange. If the latter, they are called tradeable put options (TPOs) because they can be bought and sold by third-parties via a secondary market. The World Bank has a Pilot Auction Facility for methane and carbon mediation which uses TPOs in carbon-relevant markets, giving producers (of e.g. forest restoration) a floor price for their product [1]. This enables long-term producer planning. We discuss the potentially broader use of these options contracts in carbon dioxide removal (CDR) markets generally and at scale. We conclude that they can, if priced correctly, encourage rapid investment both in CDR technology and in operational capacity. TPOs could do this without creating the same type of systemic risk associated with other instruments (e.g. long-dated futures). Nevertheless, the widespread use of such instruments potentially creates novel risks. These include the political risk of premature closure [2] (conventionally rendered as ‘counting your chickens before they are hatched’) and the economic risk of overpaying for carbon removal services. These instruments require careful structuring, and do not inoculate the CDR market against regulatory disruption, or political pressure. Accordingly, we note the potential for the development of TPO markets in CDR, but we urge caution in respect of identified risks.

Potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for sunflower in Pakistan.

PubMed

Awais, Muhammad; Wajid, Aftab; Saleem, Muhammad Farrukh; Nasim, Wajid; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Raza, Muhammad Aown Sammar; Bashir, Muhammad Usman; Mubeen, Muhammad; Hammad, Hafiz Mohkum; Habib Ur Rahman, Muhammad; Saeed, Umer; Arshad, Muhammad Naveed; Hussain, Jamshad

2018-05-01

Growth, development, and economic yield of agricultural crops rely on moisture, temperature, light, and carbon dioxide concentration. However, the amount of these parameters is varying with time due to climate change. Climate change is factual and ongoing so, first principle of agronomy should be to identify climate change potential impacts and adaptation measures to manage the susceptibilities of agricultural sector. Crop models have ability to predict the crop's yield under changing climatic conditions. We used OILCROP-SUN model to simulate the influence of elevated temperature and CO 2 on crop growth duration, maximum leaf area index (LAI), total dry matter (TDM), and achene yield of sunflower under semi-arid conditions of Pakistan (Faisalabad, Punjab). The model was calibrated and validated with the experimental data of 2012 and 2013, respectively. The simulation results showed that phenological events of sunflower were not changed at higher concentration of CO 2 (430 and 550 ppm). However LAI, achene yield, and TDM increased by 0.24, 2.41, and 4.67% at 430 ppm and by 0.48, 3.09, and 9.87% at 550 ppm, respectively. Increased temperature (1 and 2 °C) reduced the sunflower duration to remain green that finally led to less LAI, achene yield, and TDM as compared to present conditions. However, the drastic effects of increased temperature on sunflower were reduced to some extent at 550 ppm CO 2 concentration. Evaluation of different adaptation options revealed that 21 days earlier (as compared to current sowing date) planting of sunflower crop with increased plant population (83,333 plants ha -1 ) could reduce the yield losses due to climate change. Flowering is the most critical stage of sunflower to water scarcity. We recommended skipping second irrigation or 10% (337.5 mm) less irrigation water application to conserve moisture under possible water scarce conditions of 2025 and 2050.

The value of seasonal forecasting and crop mix adaptation to climate variability for agriculture under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, H. S.; Schneider, U.; Schmid, E.; Held, H.

2012-04-01

Changes to climate variability and frequency of extreme weather events are expected to impose damages to the agricultural sector. Seasonal forecasting and long range prediction skills have received attention as an option to adapt to climate change because seasonal climate and yield predictions could improve farmers' management decisions. The value of seasonal forecasting skill is assessed with a crop mix adaptation option in Spain where drought conditions are prevalent. Yield impacts of climate are simulated for six crops (wheat, barely, cotton, potato, corn and rice) with the EPIC (Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) model. Daily weather data over the period 1961 to 1990 are used and are generated by the regional climate model REMO as reference period for climate projection. Climate information and its consequent yield variability information are given to the stochastic agricultural sector model to calculate the value of climate information in the agricultural market. Expected consumers' market surplus and producers' revenue is compared with and without employing climate forecast information. We find that seasonal forecasting benefits not only consumers but also producers if the latter adopt a strategic crop mix. This mix differs from historical crop mixes by having higher shares of crops which fare relatively well under climate change. The corresponding value of information is highly sensitive to farmers' crop mix choices.

What is the Value Added to Adaptation Planning by Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, R. L.

2008-12-01

Probabilistic projections of climate change offer new sources of risk information to support regional impacts assessment and adaptation options appraisal. However, questions continue to surround how best to apply these scenarios in a practical context, and whether the added complexity and computational burden leads to more robust decision-making. This paper provides an overview of recent efforts in the UK to 'bench-test' frameworks for employing probabilistic projections ahead of the release of the next generation, UKCIP08 projections (in November 2008). This is involving close collaboration between government agencies, research and stakeholder communities. Three examples will be cited to illustrate how probabilistic projections are already informing decisions about future flood risk management in London, water resource planning in trial river basins, and assessments of risks from rising water temperatures to Atlantic salmon stocks in southern England. When compared with conventional deterministic scenarios, ensemble projections allow exploration of a wider range of management options and highlight timescales for implementing adaptation measures. Users of probabilistic scenarios must keep in mind that other uncertainties (e.g., due to impacts model structure and parameterisation) should be handled in an equally rigorous way to those arising from climate models and emission scenarios. Finally, it is noted that a commitment to long-term monitoring is also critical for tracking environmental change, testing model projections, and for evaluating the success (or not) of any scenario-led interventions.

Study flow diagrams in Cochrane systematic review updates: an adapted PRISMA flow diagram

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Cochrane systematic reviews are conducted and reported according to rigorous standards. A study flow diagram must be included in a new review, and there is clear guidance from the PRISMA statement on how to do this. However, for a review update, there is currently no guidance on how study flow diagrams should be presented. To address this, a working group was formed to find a solution and produce guidance on how to use these diagrams in review updates. A number of different options were devised for how these flow diagrams could be used in review updates, and also in cases where multiple searches for a review or review update have been conducted. These options were circulated to the Cochrane information specialist community for consultation and feedback. Following the consultation period, the working group refined the guidance and made the recommendation that for review updates an adapted PRISMA flow diagram should be used, which includes an additional box with the number of previously included studies feeding into the total. Where multiple searches have been conducted, the results should be added together and treated as one set of results. There is no existing guidance for using study flow diagrams in review updates. Our adapted diagram is a simple and pragmatic solution for showing the flow of studies in review updates. PMID:24886533

An Agenda for Climate Impacts Science

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaye, J. A.

2009-12-01

The report Global Change Impacts in the United States released by the US Global Change Research Program in June 2009 identifies a number of areas in which inadequate information or understanding hampers our ability to estimate likely future climate change and its impacts. In this section of the report, the focus is on those areas of climate science that could contribute most towards advancing our knowledge of climate change impacts and those aspects of climate change responsible for these impacts in order to continue to guide decision making. The Report identifies the six most important gaps in knowledge and offers some thoughts on how to address those gaps: 1. Expand our understanding of climate change impacts. There is a clear need to increase understanding of how ecosystems, social and economic systems, human health, and the built environment will be affected by climate change in the context of other stresses. 2. Refine ability to project climate change, including extreme events, at local scales. While climate change is a global issue, it has a great deal of regional variability. There is an indisputable need to improve understanding of climate system effects at these smaller scales, because these are often the scales of decision-making in society. This includes advances in modeling capability and observations needed to address local scales and high-impact extreme events. 3. Expand capacity to provide decision makers and the public with relevant information on climate change and its impacts. Significant potential exists in the US to create more comprehensive measurement, archive, and data-access systems that could provide great benefit to society, which requires defining needed information, gathering it, expanding capacity to deliver it, and improving tools by which decision makers use it to best advantage. 4. Improve understanding of thresholds likely to lead to abrupt changes in climate or ecosystems. Potential areas of research include thresholds that could lead to rapid changes in ice-sheet dynamics that could impact future sea-level rise and tipping points in biological systems (including those that may be associated with ocean acidification). 5. Improve understanding of the most effective ways to reduce the rate and magnitude of climate change, as well as unintended consequences of such actions. Research will help to identify the desired mix of mitigation options necessary to control the rate and magnitude of climate change, and to examine possible unintended consequences of mitigation options. 6. Enhance understanding of how society can adapt to climate change. There is currently limited knowledge about the ability of communities, regions, and sectors to adapt to future climate change. It is important to improve understanding of how to enhance society’s capacity to adapt to a changing climate in the context of other environmental stresses.

Alternative skid trail retirement options for steep terrain logging

Treesearch

Mathew F. Smidt; Randall K. Kolka

2001-01-01

In winter 1999-2000 trials of deep tillage and recontouring of skid trails were implemented on three sites in northeastern Kentucky, USA to examine their potential as skid trail retirement options. While effective, current Best Management Practices (BMPs) for trail retirement do not address two potential benefits of retirement: recovery of normal hill slope hydrology...

Alternative skid trail retirement options for steep terrain logging

Treesearch

Mathew F. Smidt; Randall K. Kelka

2001-01-01

In winter 1999-2000 trials of deep tillage and recontouring of skid trails were implemented on three sites in northeastern Kentucky, USA to examine their potential as skid trail retirement options. While effective, current Best Management Practices (BMPs) for trail retirement do not address two potential benefits of retirement: recovery of normal hill slope\\r\\...

Gaining Options: A Mathematics Program for Potentially Talented At-Risk Adolescent Girls

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reid, Pamela Trotman; Roberts, Sally K.

2006-01-01

In response to indicators that a decline in interest in mathematics occurs among girls--particularly those from low-income and minority groups--during middle school, the GO-GIRL (Gaining Options: Girls Investigate Real Life) program was designed to help potentially talented at-risk girls. The program aimed to build mathematical confidence, skills,…

Managed relocation as an adaptation strategy for mitigating climate change threats to the persistence of an endangered lizard.

PubMed

Fordham, Damien A; Watts, Michael J; Delean, Steven; Brook, Brook W; Heard, Lee M B; Bull, C M

2012-09-01

The distributional ranges of many species are contracting with habitat conversion and climate change. For vertebrates, informed strategies for translocations are an essential option for decisions about their conservation management. The pygmy bluetongue lizard, Tiliqua adelaidensis, is an endangered reptile with a highly restricted distribution, known from only a small number of natural grassland fragments in South Australia. Land-use changes over the last century have converted perennial native grasslands into croplands, pastures and urban areas, causing substantial contraction of the species' range due to loss of essential habitat. Indeed, the species was thought to be extinct until its rediscovery in 1992. We develop coupled-models that link habitat suitability with stochastic demographic processes to estimate extinction risk and to explore the efficacy of potential climate adaptation options. These coupled-models offer improvements over simple bioclimatic envelope models for estimating the impacts of climate change on persistence probability. Applying this coupled-model approach to T. adelaidensis, we show that: (i) climate-driven changes will adversely impact the expected minimum abundance of populations and could cause extinction without management intervention, (ii) adding artificial burrows might enhance local population density, however, without targeted translocations this measure has a limited effect on extinction risk, (iii) managed relocations are critical for safeguarding lizard population persistence, as a sole or joint action and (iv) where to source and where to relocate animals in a program of translocations depends on the velocity, extent and nonlinearities in rates of climate-induced habitat change. These results underscore the need to consider managed relocations as part of any multifaceted plan to compensate the effects of habitat loss or shifting environmental conditions on species with low dispersal capacity. More broadly, we provide the first step towards a more comprehensive framework for integrating extinction risk, managed relocations and climate change information into range-wide conservation management. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Design of the helium cooled lithium lead breeding blanket in CEA: from TBM to DEMO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aiello, G.; Aubert, J.; Forest, L.; Jaboulay, J.-C.; Li Puma, A.; Boccaccini, L. V.

2017-04-01

The helium cooled lithium lead (HCLL) blanket concept was originally developed in CEA at the beginning of 2000: it is one of the two European blanket concepts to be tested in ITER in the form of a test blanket module (TBM) and one of the four blanket concepts currently being considered for the DEMOnstration reactor that will follow ITER. The TBM is a highly optimized component for the ITER environment that will provide crucial information for the development of the DEMO blanket, but its design needs to be adapted to the DEMO reactor. With respect to the TBM design, reduction of the steel content in the breeding zone (BZ) is sought in order to maximize tritium breeding reactions. Different options are being studied, with the potential of reaching tritium breeding ratio (TBR) values up to 1.21. At the same time, the design of the back supporting structure (BSS), which is a DEMO specific component that has to support the blanket modules inside the vacuum vessel (VV), is ongoing with the aim of maximizing the shielding power and minimizing pumping power. This implies a re-engineering of the modules’ attachment system. Design changes however, will have an impact on the manufacturing and assembly sequences that are being developed for the HCLL-TBM. Due to the differences in joint configurations, thicknesses to be welded, heat dissipation and the various technical constraints related to the accessibility of the welding tools and implementation of non-destructive examination (NDE), the manufacturing procedure should be adapted and optimized for DEMO design. Laser welding instead of TIG could be an option to reduce distortions. The time-of-flight diffraction (TOFD) technique is being investigated for NDE. Finally, essential information expected from the HCLL-TBM program that will be needed to finalize the DEMO design is discussed.

Brief Report: Avoidance Extinction as Treatment for Compulsive and Ritual Behavior in Autism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wolff, Jason J.; Hupp, Susan C.; Symons, Frank J.

2013-01-01

Treatment options for maladaptive repetitive behaviors associated with autism are limited. This is particularly so for ritual and compulsive forms of repetitive behavior, which commonly interfere with adaptive activities and may cause distress to individuals with autism and their families. The present study assessed an avoidance extinction…

Developing Computerized Tests for Classroom Teachers: A Pilot Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glowacki, Margaret L.; And Others

Two types of computerized testing have been defined: (1) computer-based testing, using a computer to administer conventional tests in which all examinees take the same set of items; and (2) adaptive tests, in which items are selected for administration by the computer, based on examinee's previous responses. This paper discusses an option for…

Expanding Opportunities and Building Competencies for Young People: A New Agenda for Secondary Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cuadra, Ernesto; Moreno, Juan Manuel

2005-01-01

The purpose of this report is to set forth policy options for supporting developing countries and transition economies in adapting their secondary education systems to demands arising from the successful expansion of primary education and the socioeconomic challenges presented by globalization and the knowledge-based economy. The report analyzes…

Educational Supports for High Functioning Youth with ASD: The Postsecondary Pathway to College

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zeedyk, Sasha M.; Tipton, Leigh Ann; Blacher, Jan

2016-01-01

This article provides direction for educational decision making specifically for individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD), who have the cognitive and adaptive capabilities required to pursue postsecondary college education. The purpose is to draw attention to the available postsecondary pathways, 2- and 4-year college options, by addressing…

Decisions from Experience: How Groups and Individuals Adapt to Change

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-01-01

1997). These learned solutions can be established at the level of options (Betsch et al., 2001) or of decision strategies (Bröder & Schiffer , 2006...the Combination of Advice and Individual Learning. Cognitive Science, 33, 206–242. doi: 10.1111/j.1551- 6709.2009.01010.x Bröder, A., & Schiffer , S

The Big, Bad Wolf Goes Trick-or-Treating.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Joy, Flora; And Others

1994-01-01

This adaptation of the "Three Little Pigs" story is suitable for performance in elementary grades, especially around Halloween. The story comes with step-by-step directions for how to dramatize the action for maximum audience participation and response and with suggestions for optional learning activities that can be used with the story.…

Defining Teachers' Technostress Levels: A Scale Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Çoklar, Ahmet Naci; Efilti, Erkan; Sahin, Levent

2017-01-01

With the integration of technology in recent years, use of technology has rapidly increased in educational system, and has become almost a must rather than an option. The use of technology in educational processes accompanies some adaptation issues due to the nature of technology (rapid development, cost, need for electricity, change of roles,…

The Need for High Speed in Next Generation Rotorcraft

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

ROTORCRAFT From the earliest thought of manned flight the helicopter was considered as a viable option to satisfy the requirement for flight. Leonardo Da... Vinci first dreamed of the helicopter flight concept in the year 1480. His adaption of the flying machine, named the "Helical Air Screw,” used the

Strategic interactions, affective reactions, and fast adaptations.

PubMed

Kareev, Yaakov; Avrahami, Judith; Fiedler, Klaus

2014-06-01

We studied repeated choices under uncertainty in situations in which the source of uncertainty is the choice of an interaction partner. In 1 experiment the participants engaged in repeated decisions in a mixed motive game; in another experiment the options and outcomes were identical to those in the 1st, but periods of the mixed-motive game alternated with periods of a coordination game, with the change in period not announced. We analyzed choice dynamics-the relationship between an outcome and the choice that followed-and aggregate choice probabilities to gauge the relative merit of reward-based or affect-based accounts (the affects considered being disappointment and regret). In both experiments choice dynamics were essentially identical and were compatible with only the regret-based account. This was true irrespective of the game played or the stage (early or late) of the game. Moreover, the same dynamics explained the very different aggregate probabilities with which the 2 options were chosen in the 2 games and the remarkably fast adaptations to unannounced changes in the game played. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Development and Preliminary Evaluation of the Resident Coordinated-Transitional Care (RC-TraC) Program: A Sustainable Option for Transitional Care Education

PubMed Central

Chapman, E.; Eastman, A.; Gilmore-Bykovskyi, A.; Vogelman, B.; Kind, A. J.

2016-01-01

Older adults often face poor outcomes when transitioning from hospital to home. Although physicians play a key role in overseeing transitions, there is a lack of practice-based educational programs that prepare resident physicians to manage care transitions of older adults. An educational intervention to provide residents with real-life transitional care practice was therefore developed – Resident-coordinated Transitional Care (RC-TraC). RC-TraC adapted the evidence-based Coordinated-Transitional Care (C-TraC) nurse role for residents, providing opportunities to follow patients during the peri-hospital period without additional costs to the residency program. Between July 2010 and June 2013, thirty-one Internal Medicine residents participated in RC-TraC, caring for 721 patients. RC-TraC has been a sustainable, low-cost, practice-based education experience that is recognized as transitional care education by residents and continues in operation to this day. RC-TraC is a promising option for geriatric-based transitional care education of resident physicians and could also be adapted for non-physician learners. PMID:27749162

Application of Remote Sensing for Forest Management in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajracharya, B.; Matin, M. A.

2016-12-01

Large area of the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region is covered by forest that is playing a vital role to address the challenges of climate change and livelihood options for a growing population. Effective management of forest cover needs establishment of regular monitoring system for forest. Supporting REDD assessment needs reliable baseline assessment of forest biomass and its monitoring at multiple scale. Adaptation of forest to climate change needs understanding vulnerability of forests and dependence of local communities on these forest. We present here different forest monitoring products developed under the SERVIR-Himalaya programme to address these issues. Landsat 30 meter images were used for decadal land cover change assessment and annual forest change hotspot monitoring. Methodology developed for biomass estimation at national and sub-national level biomass estimation. Decision support system was developed for analysis of forest vulnerability and dependence and selection of adaptation options based on resource availability. These products are forming the basis for development of an integrated system that will be very useful for comprehensive forest monitoring and long term strategy development for sustainable forest management.

Climate change and waterborne diarrhoea in northern India: impacts and adaptation strategies.

PubMed

Moors, Eddy; Singh, Tanya; Siderius, Christian; Balakrishnan, Sneha; Mishra, Arabinda

2013-12-01

Although several studies show the vulnerability of human health to climate change, a clear comprehensive quantification of the increased health risks attributable to climate change is lacking. Even more complicated are assessments of adaptation measures for this sector. We discuss the impact of climate change on diarrhoea as a representative of a waterborne infectious disease affecting human health in the Ganges basin of northern India. A conceptual framework is presented for climate exposure response relationships based on studies from different countries, as empirical studies and appropriate epidemiological data sets for India are lacking. Four climate variables are included: temperature, increased/extreme precipitation, decreased precipitation/droughts and relative humidity. Applying the conceptual framework to the latest regional climate projections for northern India shows increases between present and future (2040s), varying spatially from no change to an increase of 21% in diarrhoea incidences, with 13.1% increase on average for the Ganges basin. We discuss three types of measures against diarrhoeal disease: reactive actions, preventive actions and national policy options. Preventive actions have the potential to counterbalance this expected increase. However, given the limited progress in reducing incidences over the past decade consorted actions and effective implementation and integration of existing policies are needed. © 2013.

Emerging roles of innate lymphoid cells in inflammatory diseases: Clinical implications.

PubMed

Kortekaas Krohn, I; Shikhagaie, M M; Golebski, K; Bernink, J H; Breynaert, C; Creyns, B; Diamant, Z; Fokkens, W J; Gevaert, P; Hellings, P; Hendriks, R W; Klimek, L; Mjösberg, J; Morita, H; Ogg, G S; O'Mahony, L; Schwarze, J; Seys, S F; Shamji, M H; Bal, S M

2018-04-01

Innate lymphoid cells (ILC) represent a group of lymphocytes that lack specific antigen receptors and are relatively rare as compared to adaptive lymphocytes. ILCs play important roles in allergic and nonallergic inflammatory diseases due to their location at barrier surfaces within the airways, gut, and skin, and they respond to cytokines produced by activated cells in their local environment. Innate lymphoid cells contribute to the immune response by the release of cytokines and other mediators, forming a link between innate and adaptive immunity. In recent years, these cells have been extensively characterized and their role in animal models of disease has been investigated. Data to translate the relevance of ILCs in human pathology, and the potential role of ILCs in diagnosis, as biomarkers and/or as future treatment targets are also emerging. This review, produced by a task force of the Immunology Section of the European Academy of Allergy and Clinical Immunology (EAACI), encompassing clinicians and researchers, highlights the role of ILCs in human allergic and nonallergic diseases in the airways, gastrointestinal tract, and skin, with a focus on new insights into clinical implications, therapeutic options, and future research opportunities. © 2017 EAACI and John Wiley and Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd.

Innovations: clinical computing: an audio computer-assisted self-interviewing system for research and screening in public mental health settings.

PubMed

Bertollo, David N; Alexander, Mary Jane; Shinn, Marybeth; Aybar, Jalila B

2007-06-01

This column describes the nonproprietary software Talker, used to adapt screening instruments to audio computer-assisted self-interviewing (ACASI) systems for low-literacy populations and other populations. Talker supports ease of programming, multiple languages, on-site scoring, and the ability to update a central research database. Key features include highly readable text display, audio presentation of questions and audio prompting of answers, and optional touch screen input. The scripting language for adapting instruments is briefly described as well as two studies in which respondents provided positive feedback on its use.

78 FR 17985 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-03-25

... with customer bases of potential product users have indicated a preference that premium pricing for... options on the same security. In addition to giving market participants clarity as to the minimum pricing increments for Mini Options, the filing would harmonize penny pricing between Mini Options and standard...

Tracking Juvenile Recidivists: Three Options for Creating Statewide, Longitudinal Records of Juvenile Offenders.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rooney, Teresa L.

This document describes three options for a statewide statistical system for tracking recidivism of juvenile delinquents placed outside their homes in treatment programs. The information is intended for use by the state in allocating resources. The options described involve potential use of juvenile court records, placement data, and/or…

Adapting sustainable low-carbon techologies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, Peter Shyr-Jye

1997-09-01

The scientific community is deeply concerned about the effect of greenhouse-gases (GHGs) on global climate change. A major climate shift can result in tragic destruction to our world. Carbon dioxide (COsb2) emissions from coal-fired power plants are major anthropogenic sources that contribute to potential global warming. The People's Republic of China, with its rapidly growing economy and heavy dependence on coal-fired power plants for electricity, faces increasingly serious environmental challenges. This research project seeks to develop viable methodologies for reducing the potential global warming effects and serious air pollution arising from excessive coal burning. China serves as a case study for this research project. Major resolution strategies are developed through intensive literature reviews to identify sustainable technologies that can minimize adverse environmental impacts while meeting China's economic needs. The research thereby contributes technological knowledge to the field of Applied Sciences. The research also integrates modern power generation technologies with China's current and future energy requirements. With these objectives in mind, this project examines how China's environmental issues are related to China's power generation methods. This study then makes strategic recommendations that emphasize low-carbon technologies as sustainable energy generating options to be implemented in China. These low-carbon technologies consist of three options: (1) using cleaner fuels converted from China's plentiful domestic coal resources; (2) applying high-efficiency gas turbine systems for power generation; and (3) integrating coal gasification processes with energy saving combined cycle gas turbine systems. Each method can perform independently, but a combined strategy can achieve the greatest COsb2 reductions. To minimize economic impacts caused by technological changes, this study also addresses additional alternatives that can be implemented in parallel with the proposed technologies. Principal options include promoting wind, solar and biogas as alternative energies; encouraging reforestation; using economic incentives to change energy policies; and gradually replacing obsolete facilities with new power plants. This study finds that the limited capacity and associated costs of alternative energies are the main factors that prevent competition with coal-based energy in China today.

Ecological mechanisms underpinning climate adaptation services.

PubMed

Lavorel, Sandra; Colloff, Matthew J; McIntyre, Sue; Doherty, Michael D; Murphy, Helen T; Metcalfe, Daniel J; Dunlop, Michael; Williams, Richard J; Wise, Russell M; Williams, Kristen J

2015-01-01

Ecosystem services are typically valued for their immediate material or cultural benefits to human wellbeing, supported by regulating and supporting services. Under climate change, with more frequent stresses and novel shocks, 'climate adaptation services', are defined as the benefits to people from increased social ability to respond to change, provided by the capability of ecosystems to moderate and adapt to climate change and variability. They broaden the ecosystem services framework to assist decision makers in planning for an uncertain future with new choices and options. We present a generic framework for operationalising the adaptation services concept. Four steps guide the identification of intrinsic ecological mechanisms that facilitate the maintenance and emergence of ecosystem services during periods of change, and so materialise as adaptation services. We applied this framework for four contrasted Australian ecosystems. Comparative analyses enabled by the operational framework suggest that adaptation services that emerge during trajectories of ecological change are supported by common mechanisms: vegetation structural diversity, the role of keystone species or functional groups, response diversity and landscape connectivity, which underpin the persistence of function and the reassembly of ecological communities under severe climate change and variability. Such understanding should guide ecosystem management towards adaptation planning. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Bacteriophages as Potential Treatment for Urinary Tract Infections

PubMed Central

Sybesma, Wilbert; Zbinden, Reinhard; Chanishvili, Nino; Kutateladze, Mzia; Chkhotua, Archil; Ujmajuridze, Aleksandre; Mehnert, Ulrich; Kessler, Thomas M.

2016-01-01

Background: Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are among the most prevalent microbial diseases and their financial burden on society is substantial. The continuing increase of antibiotic resistance worldwide is alarming so that well-tolerated, highly effective therapeutic alternatives are urgently needed. Objective: To investigate the effect of bacteriophages on Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae strains isolated from the urine of patients suffering from UTIs. Material and methods: Forty-one E. coli and 9 K. pneumoniae strains, isolated from the urine of patients suffering from UTIs, were tested in vitro for their susceptibility toward bacteriophages. The bacteriophages originated from either commercially available bacteriophage cocktails registered in Georgia or from the bacteriophage collection of the George Eliava Institute of Bacteriophage, Microbiology and Virology. In vitro screening of bacterial strains was performed by use of the spot-test method. The experiments were implemented three times by different groups of scientists. Results: The lytic activity of the commercial bacteriophage cocktails on the 41 E. coli strains varied between 66% (Pyo bacteriophage) and 93% (Enko bacteriophage). After bacteriophage adaptation of the Pyo bacteriophage cocktail, its lytic activity was increased from 66 to 93% and only one E. coli strain remained resistant. One bacteriophage of the Eliava collection could lyse all 9 K. pneumoniae strains. Conclusions: Based on the high lytic activity and the potential of resistance optimization by direct adaption of bacteriophages as reported in this study, and in view of the continuing increase of antibiotic resistance worldwide, bacteriophage therapy is a promising treatment option for UTIs highly warranting randomized controlled trials. PMID:27148173

The applicability of chemical alternatives assessment for engineered nanomaterials.

PubMed

Hjorth, Rune; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Jacobs, Molly; Tickner, Joel; Ellenbecker, Michael; Baun, Anders

2017-01-01

The use of alternatives assessment to substitute hazardous chemicals with inherently safer options is gaining momentum worldwide as a legislative and corporate strategy to minimize consumer, occupational, and environmental risks. Engineered nanomaterials represent an interesting case for alternatives assessment approaches, because they can be considered both emerging "chemicals" of concern, as well as potentially safer alternatives to hazardous chemicals. However, comparing the hazards of nanomaterials to traditional chemicals or to other nanomaterials is challenging, and critical elements in chemical hazard and exposure assessment may have to be fundamentally altered to sufficiently address nanomaterials. The aim of this paper is to assess the overall applicability of alternatives assessment methods for nanomaterials and to outline recommendations to enhance their use in this context. The present paper focuses on the adaptability of existing hazard and exposure assessment approaches to engineered nanomaterials as well as strategies to design inherently safer nanomaterials. We argue that alternatives assessment for nanomaterials is complicated by the sheer number of nanomaterials possible. As a result, the inclusion of new data tools that can efficiently and effectively evaluate nanomaterials as substitutes is needed to strengthen the alternatives assessment process. However, we conclude that with additional tools to enhance traditional hazard and exposure assessment modules of alternatives assessment, such as the use of mechanistic toxicity screens and control banding tools, alternatives assessment can be adapted to evaluate engineered nanomaterials as potential substitutes for chemicals of concern and to ensure safer nanomaterials are incorporated in the design of new products. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2017;13:177-187. © 2016 SETAC. © 2016 SETAC.

Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes

PubMed Central

de Blois, Sylvie

2016-01-01

Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range) in Quebec (Canada) rather than opportunities (increase in suitability). Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5–21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies. PMID:27478706

Open data for water-related operational services, the SWITCH-ON approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mazzoli, Paolo; Bagli, Stefano; Valerio, Luzzi; Broccoli, Davide; Piccinini, Francesca

2017-04-01

Recently, a collaborative project started called SWITCH-ON (EU FP7 project No 603587) coordinated by SMHI (http://water-switch-on.eu/) as part of the contemporary European movement imposed by the INSPIRE directive and the Open Data Strategy. Among It's R&D activities GECOsistema develops and expands inside SWITCH-ON a set of online services to tackle major water related issues, from reservoir and irrigation supply, to hydrological change adaptation and hydropower potential mapping. Here we present major releases of APRIL, HyCAW and High-resolution European HydroPower Atlas; all of which make intense use of open data. APRIL is a tool for seasonal run-off forecasts, that takes advantage of open datasets or low-cost data and performs forecasts through calibrated machine learning algorithms. HyCAW is a wizard that supports the assessment of adaptation options to cope with change in the temporal distribution of water availability as well as in the total water quantity. EU HPA provides all relevant information necessary to appraise the feasibility of a micro-hydropower plant at a specific site, taking into account hydrological as well as technical and economic factors. All the tools share a common vision of the project to address water concerns and currently untapped potential of open data for improved water management across the EU. Users are guided through a Web GIS interface, created using open source Web Mapping Applications, Open-Layers and Map Server, to explore available hydrological information in the area of interest, plot available data, perform analysis, and get reports and statistics.

Dominant forest tree species are potentially vulnerable to climate change over large portions of their range even at high latitudes.

PubMed

Périé, Catherine; de Blois, Sylvie

2016-01-01

Projecting suitable conditions for a species as a function of future climate provides a reasonable, although admittedly imperfect, spatially explicit estimate of species vulnerability associated with climate change. Projections emphasizing range shifts at continental scale, however, can mask contrasting patterns at local or regional scale where management and policy decisions are made. Moreover, models usually show potential for areas to become climatically unsuitable, remain suitable, or become suitable for a particular species with climate change, but each of these outcomes raises markedly different ecological and management issues. Managing forest decline at sites where climatic stress is projected to increase is likely to be the most immediate challenge resulting from climate change. Here we assess habitat suitability with climate change for five dominant tree species of eastern North American forests, focusing on areas of greatest vulnerability (loss of suitability in the baseline range) in Quebec (Canada) rather than opportunities (increase in suitability). Results show that these species are at risk of maladaptation over a remarkably large proportion of their baseline range. Depending on species, 5-21% of currently climatically suitable habitats are projected to be at risk of becoming unsuitable. This suggests that species that have traditionally defined whole regional vegetation assemblages could become less adapted to these regions, with significant impact on ecosystems and forest economy. In spite of their well-recognised limitations and the uncertainty that remains, regionally-explicit risk assessment approaches remain one of the best options to convey that message and the need for climate policies and forest management adaptation strategies.

Incident Energy Focused Design and Validation for the Floating Potential Probe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fincannon, James

2002-01-01

Utilizing the spacecraft shadowing and incident energy analysis capabilities of the NASA Glenn Research Center Power and Propulsion Office's SPACE System Power Analysis for Capability Evaluation) computer code, this paper documents the analyses for various International Space Station (ISS) Floating Potential Probe (EPP) preliminary design options. These options include various solar panel orientations and configurations as well as deployment locations on the ISS. The incident energy for the final selected option is characterized. A good correlation between the predicted data and on-orbit operational telemetry is demonstrated. Minor deviations are postulated to be induced by degradation or sensor drift.

The effective mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from rice paddies without compromising yield by early-season drainage.

PubMed

Islam, Syed Faiz-Ul; van Groenigen, Jan Willem; Jensen, Lars Stoumann; Sander, Bjoern Ole; de Neergaard, Andreas

2018-01-15

Global rice production systems face two opposing challenges: the need to increase production to accommodate the world's growing population while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Adaptations to drainage regimes are one of the most promising options for methane mitigation in rice production. Whereas several studies have focused on mid-season drainage (MD) to mitigate GHG emissions, early-season drainage (ED) varying in timing and duration has not been extensively studied. However, such ED periods could potentially be very effective since initial available C levels (and thereby the potential for methanogenesis) can be very high in paddy systems with rice straw incorporation. This study tested the effectiveness of seven drainage regimes varying in their timing and duration (combinations of ED and MD) to mitigate CH 4 and N 2 O emissions in a 101-day growth chamber experiment. Emissions were considerably reduced by early-season drainage compared to both conventional continuous flooding (CF) and the MD drainage regime. The results suggest that ED+MD drainage may have the potential to reduce CH 4 emissions and yield-scaled GWP by 85-90% compared to CF and by 75-77% compared to MD only. A combination of (short or long) ED drainage and one MD drainage episode was found to be the most effective in mitigating CH 4 emissions without negatively affecting yield. In particular, compared with CF, the long early-season drainage treatments LE+SM and LE+LM significantly (p<0.01) decreased yield-scaled GWP by 85% and 87% respectively. This was associated with carbon being stabilised early in the season, thereby reducing available C for methanogenesis. Overall N 2 O emissions were small and not significantly affected by ED. It is concluded that ED+MD drainage might be an effective low-tech option for small-scale farmers to reduce GHG emissions and save water while maintaining yield. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Volvo drivers' experiences with advanced crash avoidance and related technologies.

PubMed

Eichelberger, Angela H; McCartt, Anne T

2014-01-01

Crash avoidance technologies can potentially prevent or mitigate many crashes, but their success depends in part on driver acceptance. Owners of 2010-2012 model Volvo vehicles with several technologies were interviewed about their experiences. Interviews were conducted in summer 2012 with 155 owners of vehicles with City Safety as a standard feature; 145 owners with an optional technology package that included adaptive cruise control, distance alert, collision warning with full auto brake (and pedestrian detection on certain models), driver alert control, and lane departure warning; and 172 owners with both City Safety and the technology package. The survey response rates were 21 percent for owners with City Safety, 30 percent for owners with the technology package, and 27 percent for owners with both. Ten percent of owners opted out before the telephone survey began, and 18 percent declined to participate when called. Despite some annoyance, most respondents always leave the systems on, although fewer do so for lane departure warning (59%). For each of the systems, at least 80 percent of respondents with the system would want it on their next vehicle. Many respondents reported safer driving habits with the systems (e.g., following less closely with adaptive cruise control, using turn signals more often with lane departure warning). Fewer respondents reported potentially unsafe behavior, such as allowing the vehicle to brake for them at least some of the time. About one third of respondents experienced autonomous braking when they believed they were at risk of crashing, and about one fifth of respondents thought it had prevented a crash. About one fifth of respondents with the technology package reported that they were confused or misunderstood which safety system had activated in their vehicle. Consistent with the results for early adopters in the previous survey of Volvo and Infiniti owners, the present survey found that driver acceptance of the technologies remains high, although less so for lane departure warning. This study is the first to report drivers' experiences with City Safety, a collision avoidance system provided as standard equipment on certain Volvo 2010-2012 models, and driver acceptance of this system was high, although not to the same extent as the optional forward collision avoidance system. Future research should continue to monitor drivers' experiences with these technologies as they become available in more vehicles.

The adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of Internet gaming disorder.

PubMed

Ko, C-H; Wang, P-W; Liu, T-L; Chen, C-S; Yen, C-F; Yen, J-Y

2017-07-01

Persistent gaming, despite acknowledgment of its negative consequences, is a major criterion for individuals with Internet gaming disorder (IGD). This study evaluated the adaptive decision-making, risky decision, and decision-making style of individuals with IGD. We recruited 87 individuals with IGD and 87 without IGD (matched controls). All participants underwent an interview based on the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (5th Edition) diagnostic criteria for IGD and completed an adaptive decision-making task; the Preference for Intuition and Deliberation Scale, Chen Internet Addiction Scale, and Barratt Impulsivity Scale were also assessed on the basis of the information from the diagnostic interviews. The results demonstrated that the participants in both groups tend to make more risky choices in advantage trials where their expected value (EV) was more favorable than those of the riskless choice. The tendency to make a risky choice in advantage trials was stronger among IGD group than that among controls. Participants of both groups made more risky choices in the loss domain, a risky option to loss more versus sure loss option, than they did in the gain domain, a risky option to gain more versus sure gain. Furthermore, the participants with IGD made more risky choices in the gain domain than did the controls. Participants with IGD showed higher and lower preferences for intuitive and deliberative decision-making styles, respectively, than controls and their preferences for intuition and deliberation were positively and negatively associated with IGD severity, respectively. These results suggested that individuals with IGD have elevated EV sensitivity for decision-making. However, they demonstrated risky preferences in the gain domain and preferred an intuitive rather than deliberative decision-making style. This might explain why they continue Internet gaming despite negative consequences. Thus, therapists should focus more on decision-making styles and promote deliberative thinking processes to mitigate the long-term negative consequences of IGD. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

From climate model ensembles to climate change impacts and adaptation: A case study of water resource management in the southwest of England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lopez, Ana; Fung, Fai; New, Mark; Watts, Glenn; Weston, Alan; Wilby, Robert L.

2009-08-01

The majority of climate change impacts and adaptation studies so far have been based on at most a few deterministic realizations of future climate, usually representing different emissions scenarios. Large ensembles of climate models are increasingly available either as ensembles of opportunity or perturbed physics ensembles, providing a wealth of additional data that is potentially useful for improving adaptation strategies to climate change. Because of the novelty of this ensemble information, there is little previous experience of practical applications or of the added value of this information for impacts and adaptation decision making. This paper evaluates the value of perturbed physics ensembles of climate models for understanding and planning public water supply under climate change. We deliberately select water resource models that are already used by water supply companies and regulators on the assumption that uptake of information from large ensembles of climate models will be more likely if it does not involve significant investment in new modeling tools and methods. We illustrate the methods with a case study on the Wimbleball water resource zone in the southwest of England. This zone is sufficiently simple to demonstrate the utility of the approach but with enough complexity to allow a variety of different decisions to be made. Our research shows that the additional information contained in the climate model ensemble provides a better understanding of the possible ranges of future conditions, compared to the use of single-model scenarios. Furthermore, with careful presentation, decision makers will find the results from large ensembles of models more accessible and be able to more easily compare the merits of different management options and the timing of different adaptation. The overhead in additional time and expertise for carrying out the impacts analysis will be justified by the increased quality of the decision-making process. We remark that even though we have focused our study on a water resource system in the United Kingdom, our conclusions about the added value of climate model ensembles in guiding adaptation decisions can be generalized to other sectors and geographical regions.

Medium Range Flood Forecasting for Agriculture Damage Reduction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fakhruddin, S. H. M.

2014-12-01

Early warning is a key element for disaster risk reduction. In recent decades, major advancements have been made in medium range and seasonal flood forecasting. This progress provides a great opportunity to reduce agriculture damage and improve advisories for early action and planning for flood hazards. This approach can facilitate proactive rather than reactive management of the adverse consequences of floods. In the agricultural sector, for instance, farmers can take a diversity of options such as changing cropping patterns, applying fertilizer, irrigating and changing planting timing. An experimental medium range (1-10 day) flood forecasting model has been developed for Bangladesh and Thailand. It provides 51 sets of discharge ensemble forecasts of 1-10 days with significant persistence and high certainty. This type of forecast could assist farmers and other stakeholders for differential preparedness activities. These ensembles probabilistic flood forecasts have been customized based on user-needs for community-level application focused on agriculture system. The vulnerabilities of agriculture system were calculated based on exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Indicators for risk and vulnerability assessment were conducted through community consultations. The forecast lead time requirement, user-needs, impacts and management options for crops were identified through focus group discussions, informal interviews and community surveys. This paper illustrates potential applications of such ensembles for probabilistic medium range flood forecasts in a way that is not commonly practiced globally today.

Nanomaterial interactions with biomembranes: Bridging the gap between soft matter models and biological context.

PubMed

Werner, Marco; Auth, Thorsten; Beales, Paul A; Fleury, Jean Baptiste; Höök, Fredrik; Kress, Holger; Van Lehn, Reid C; Müller, Marcus; Petrov, Eugene P; Sarkisov, Lev; Sommer, Jens-Uwe; Baulin, Vladimir A

2018-04-03

Synthetic polymers, nanoparticles, and carbon-based materials have great potential in applications including drug delivery, gene transfection, in vitro and in vivo imaging, and the alteration of biological function. Nature and humans use different design strategies to create nanomaterials: biological objects have emerged from billions of years of evolution and from adaptation to their environment resulting in high levels of structural complexity; in contrast, synthetic nanomaterials result from minimalistic but controlled design options limited by the authors' current understanding of the biological world. This conceptual mismatch makes it challenging to create synthetic nanomaterials that possess desired functions in biological media. In many biologically relevant applications, nanomaterials must enter the cell interior to perform their functions. An essential transport barrier is the cell-protecting plasma membrane and hence the understanding of its interaction with nanomaterials is a fundamental task in biotechnology. The authors present open questions in the field of nanomaterial interactions with biological membranes, including: how physical mechanisms and molecular forces acting at the nanoscale restrict or inspire design options; which levels of complexity to include next in computational and experimental models to describe how nanomaterials cross barriers via passive or active processes; and how the biological media and protein corona interfere with nanomaterial functionality. In this Perspective, the authors address these questions with the aim of offering guidelines for the development of next-generation nanomaterials that function in biological media.

Simulating the effectiveness of three potential management options to slow the spread of emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) populations in localized outlier sites

Treesearch

Rodrigo J. Mercader; Nathan W. Siegert; Andrew M. Liebhold; Deborah G. McCullough

2011-01-01

The emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), is a devastating, invasive insect pest of ash trees, Fraxinus spp., in North America. Using a simulation model, we evaluated three potential management options to slow the spread of A. planipennis in discrete outlier sites: (i)...

High-Frequency Percussive Ventilation Revisited

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-01-01

be implemented. ‡ Follow the reverse of the ventilation sequence if respiratory alkalosis develops—however, start at ventilation goal sequence 1 not at...High-frequency percussive ventilation (HFPV) has demonstrated a potential role as a rescue option for refractory acute respiratory distress syndrome...frequency percussive ventilation (HFPV) has demon- strated a potential role as a salvage option for refrac- tory acute respiratory distress syndrome

Forestry mitigation potential and costs in developing countries - Preface

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sathaye, Jayant A.; Makundi, Willy; Andrasko, Kenneth

2001-01-01

The forest sector in Tanzania offers ample opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and sequestered carbon (C) in terrestrial ecosystems. More than 90% of the country's demand for primary energy is obtained from biomass mostly procured unsustainably from natural forests. This study examines the potential to sequester C through expansion of forest plantations aimed at reducing the dependence on natural forest for wood fuel production, as well as increase the country's output of industrial wood from plantations. These were compared ton conservation options in the tropical and miombo ecosystems. Three sequestration options were analyzed, involving the establishment of shortmore » rotation and long rotation plantations on about 1.7 x 106 hectares. The short rotation community forest option has a potential to sequester an equilibrium amount of 197.4 x 106 Mg C by 2024 at a net benefit of $79.5 x 106, while yielding a NPV of $0.46 Mg-1 C. The long rotation options for softwood and hardwood plantations will reach an equilibrium sequestration of 5.6 and 11.8 x 106 Mg C at a negative NPV of $0.60 Mg-1 C and $0.32 Mg-1 C. The three options provide cost competitive opportunities for sequestering about 7.5 x 106 Mg C yr -1 while providing desired forest products and easing the pressure on the natural forests in Tanzania. The endowment costs of the sequestration options were all found to be cheaper than the emission avoidance cost for conservation options which had an average cost of $1.27 Mg-1 C, rising to $7.5 Mg-1 C under some assumptions on vulnerability to encroachment. The estimates shown here may represent the upper bound, because the actual potential will be influenced by market prices for inputs and forest products, land use policy constraints and the structure of global C transactions.« less

Potential and cost of carbon sequestration in the Tanzanian forest sector

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Makundi, Willy R.

2001-01-01

The forest sector in Tanzania offers ample opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and sequestered carbon (C) in terrestrial ecosystems. More than 90% of the country's demand for primary energy is obtained from biomass mostly procured unsustainably from natural forests. This study examines the potential to sequester C through expansion of forest plantations aimed at reducing the dependence on natural forest for wood fuel production, as well as increase the country's output of industrial wood from plantations. These were compared ton conservation options in the tropical and miombo ecosystems. Three sequestration options were analyzed, involving the establishment of shortmore » rotation and long rotation plantations on about 1.7 x 106 hectares. The short rotation community forest option has a potential to sequester an equilibrium amount of 197.4 x 106 Mg C by 2024 at a net benefit of $79.5 x 106, while yielding a NPV of $0.46 Mg-1 C. The long rotation options for softwood and hardwood plantations will reach an equilibrium sequestration of 5.6 and 11.8 x 106 Mg C at a negative NPV of $0.60 Mg-1 C and $0.32 Mg-1 C. The three options provide cost competitive opportunities for sequestering about 7.5 x 106 Mg C yr -1 while providing desired forest products and easing the pressure on the natural forests in Tanzania. The endowment costs of the sequestration options were all found to be cheaper than the emission avoidance cost for conservation options which had an average cost of $1.27 Mg-1 C, rising to $ 7.5 Mg-1 C under some assumptions on vulnerability to encroachment. The estimates shown here may represent the upper bound, because the actual potential will be influenced by market prices for inputs and forest products, land use policy constraints and the structure of global C transactions.« less

Study adaptation, design, and methods of a web-based PTSD intervention for women Veterans.

PubMed

Lehavot, Keren; Litz, Brett; Millard, Steven P; Hamilton, Alison B; Sadler, Anne; Simpson, Tracy

2017-02-01

Women Veterans are a rapidly growing population with high risk of exposure to potentially traumatizing events and PTSD diagnoses. Despite the dissemination of evidence-based treatments for PTSD in the VA, most women Veteran VA users underutilize these treatments. Web-based PTSD treatment has the potential to reach and engage women Veterans with PTSD who do not receive treatment in VA settings. Our objective is to modify and evaluate Delivery of Self Training and Education for Stressful Situations (DESTRESSS), a web-based cognitive-behavioral intervention for PTSD, to target PTSD symptoms among women Veterans. The specific aims are to: (1) obtain feedback about DESTRESS, particularly on its relevance and sensitivity to women, using semi-structured interviews with expert clinicians and women Veterans with PTSD, and make modifications based on this feedback; (2) conduct a pilot study to finalize study procedures and make further refinements to the intervention; and (3) conduct a randomized clinical trial (RCT) evaluating a revised, telephone-assisted DESTRESS compared to telephone monitoring only. We describe the results from the first two aims, and the study design and procedures for the ongoing RCT. This line of research has the potential to result in a gender-sensitive, empirically-based, online treatment option for women Veterans with PTSD. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Screening regional management options for their impact on climate resilience: an approach and case study in the Venen-Vechtstreek wetlands in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Wardekker, J A; Wildschut, D; Stemberger, S; van der Sluijs, J P

2016-01-01

Freshwater systems provide various resources and services. These are often vulnerable to climate change and other pressures. Therefore, enhancing resilience to climate change is important for their long term viability. This paper explores how management options can be evaluated on their resilience implications. The approach included five steps: (1) characterizing the system, (2) characterizing the impacts of climate change and other disturbances, (3) inventorying management options, (4) assessing the impacts of these on climate resilience, and (5) follow-up analysis. For the resilience assessment, we used a set of 'resilience principles': homeostasis, omnivory, high flux, flatness, buffering, and redundancy. We applied the approach in a case study in a Dutch wetlands region. Many options in the region's management plan contribute to resilience, however, the plan underutilised several principles, particularly flatness, but also redundancy and omnivory for agriculture, and high flux for nature. Co-benefits was identified as an important additional criterion to obtain support for adaptation from local stakeholders, such as farmers. The approach provided a relatively quick and participatory way to screen options. It allowed us to consider multiple impacts and sectors, multiple dimensions of resilience, and stakeholder perspectives. The results can be used to identify gaps or pitfalls, and set priorities for follow-up analyses.

Attraction Effect in Risky Choice Can Be Explained by Subjective Distance Between Choice Alternatives.

PubMed

Mohr, Peter N C; Heekeren, Hauke R; Rieskamp, Jörg

2017-08-21

Individuals make decisions under risk throughout daily life. Standard models of economic decision making typically assume that people evaluate choice options independently. There is, however, substantial evidence showing that this independence assumption is frequently violated in decision making without risk. The present study extends these findings to the domain of decision making under risk. To explain the independence violations, we adapted a sequential sampling model, namely Multialternative Decision Field Theory (MDFT), to decision making under risk and showed how this model can account for the observed preference shifts. MDFT not only better predicts choices compared with the standard Expected Utility Theory, but it also explains individual differences in the size of the observed context effect. Evidence in favor of the chosen option, as predicted by MDFT, was positively correlated with brain activity in the medial orbitofrontal cortex (mOFC) and negatively correlated with brain activity in the anterior insula (aINS). From a neuroscience perspective, the results of the present study show that specific brain regions, such as the mOFC and aINS, not only code the value or risk of a single choice option but also code the evidence in favor of the best option compared with other available choice options.

IPCC Working Group II: Impacts and Adaptation Part I

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2007-12-01

The IPCC (as opposed to the UN Framework Convention) defines climate change as" any change in climate over time, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity". The IPCC Working Group II (Impacts, Adaptation, Vulnerability) was charged with assessing the scientific, technical, environmental, economic, and social aspects of vulnerability to climate change, and, the negative and positive consequences for ecological systems, socio-economic sectors, and human health. The Working Group II report focused on the following issues for different sectors and regions (e.g. water, agriculture, biodiversity) and communities (coastal, island, etc.): · The role of adaptation in reducing vulnerability and impacts, · Assessment of adaptation capacity, options and constraints, and · Enhancing adaptation practice and operations. This presentation will address the following questions in the context of the results of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WG II: · What are the barriers, knowledge gaps, and opportunities for impacts assessments? · How are decisions about adaptation being made, and what types of adaptation strategies are being undertaken? · What are good adaptation practices and how are they learned over time? Examples will be drawn from the freshwater resources, small islands and adaptation chapters to which the presenter contributed. Many lessons have been identified but few have been implemented or evaluated over time. Adaptation occurs in the context of multiple stresses. Adaptation will be important in coping with early impacts in the near-term and continue to be important as our climate changes, regardless of how that change is derived. It is important to note that unmitigated climate change could, in the long term, exceed the capacity of different natural, managed and human systems to adapt. The assessment leads to the following conclusions: · Adaptation to climate change is already taking place, but on a limited basis · Adaptation measures are seldom undertaken in response to climate change alone · Many adaptations can be implemented at low cost, but comprehensive estimates of adaptation costs and benefits are currently lacking · Adaptive capacity is uneven across and within societies Adaptive capacity to manage as climate changes can be increased by introducing adaptation measures into development planning and operations (sometimes termed 'mainstreaming'). This can be achieved by including adaptation measures in land-use planning and infrastructure design, or by including measures to reduce vulnerability in existing disaster preparedness programs (such as introducing drought warning systems based on actual management needs). The major barriers to implementing adaptive management measures are that adaptation to climate change is not as yet a high priority, and the validity of local manifestations of global climate change remains in question. Coping with the uncertainties associated with estimates of future climate change and the impacts on economic and environmental resources means management measures must be robust enough to apply to a range of potential scenarios, some as yet undefined Greenhouse gas mitigation is not enough to reduce climatic risks, nor does identifying the need for adaptations translate into actions that reduce vulnerability. By implementing mainstreaming initiatives, adaptation to climate change will become part of, or will be consistent with, other well- established programs to increase societal resilience, particularly environmental impacts assessments, adaptive management

SDSM-DC: A smarter approach to downscaling for decision-making? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, R. L.; Dawson, C. W.

2011-12-01

General Circulation Model (GCM) output has been used for downscaling and impact assessments for at least 25 years. Downscaling methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to human and natural systems. However, there are relatively few instances where these analyses have translated into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that conventional ';top down' downscaling typically yields very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and local scales. Consequently, there are growing calls to use downscaling tools in smarter ways that refocus attention on the decision problem rather than on the climate modelling per se. The talk begins with an overview of various application of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) over the last decade. This sample offers insights to downscaling practice in terms of regions and sectors of interest, modes of application and adaptation outcomes. The decision-centred rationale and functionality of the latest version of SDSM is then explained. This new downscaling tool does not require GCM input but enables the user to generate plausible daily weather scenarios that may be informed by climate model and/or palaeoenvironmental information. Importantly, the tool is intended for stress-testing adaptation options rather than for exhaustive analysis of uncertainty components. The approach is demonstrated by downscaling multi-basin, multi-elevation temperature and precipitation scenarios for the Upper Colorado River Basin. These scenarios are used alongside other narratives of future conditions that might potential affect the security of water supplies, and for evaluating steps that can be taken to manage these risks.

SDSM-DC: A smarter approach to downscaling for decision-making? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilby, R. L.; Dawson, C. W.

2013-12-01

General Circulation Model (GCM) output has been used for downscaling and impact assessments for at least 25 years. Downscaling methods raise awareness about risks posed by climate variability and change to human and natural systems. However, there are relatively few instances where these analyses have translated into actionable information for adaptation. One reason is that conventional ';top down' downscaling typically yields very large uncertainty bounds in projected impacts at regional and local scales. Consequently, there are growing calls to use downscaling tools in smarter ways that refocus attention on the decision problem rather than on the climate modelling per se. The talk begins with an overview of various application of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) over the last decade. This sample offers insights to downscaling practice in terms of regions and sectors of interest, modes of application and adaptation outcomes. The decision-centred rationale and functionality of the latest version of SDSM is then explained. This new downscaling tool does not require GCM input but enables the user to generate plausible daily weather scenarios that may be informed by climate model and/or palaeoenvironmental information. Importantly, the tool is intended for stress-testing adaptation options rather than for exhaustive analysis of uncertainty components. The approach is demonstrated by downscaling multi-basin, multi-elevation temperature and precipitation scenarios for the Upper Colorado River Basin. These scenarios are used alongside other narratives of future conditions that might potential affect the security of water supplies, and for evaluating steps that can be taken to manage these risks.

CD4+ T Cells Mediate Aspergillosis Vaccine Protection.

PubMed

Diaz-Arevalo, Diana; Kalkum, Markus

2017-01-01

Adaptive effector CD4 + T cells play essential roles in the defense against fungal infections, especially against invasive aspergillosis (IA). Such protective CD4 + T cells can be generated through immunization with specialized antifungal vaccines, as has been demonstrated for pulmonary Aspergillus fumigatus infections in mouse experiments. Adaptive transfer of fungal antigen-specific CD4 + T cells conferred protection onto non-immunized naive mice, an experimental approach that could potentially become a future treatment option for immunosuppressed IA patients, focusing on the ultimate goal to improve their otherwise dim chances for survival. Here, we describe the different techniques to analyze CD4 + T cell immune responses after immunization with a recombinant fungal protein. We present three major methods that are used to analyze the role of CD4 + T cells in protection against A. fumigatus challenge. They include (1) transplantation of CD4 + T cells from vaccinated mice into immunosuppressed naive mice, observing increasing protection of the cell recipients, (2) depletion of CD4 + T cells from vaccinated mice, which abolishes vaccine protection, and (3) T cell proliferation studies following stimulation with overlapping synthetic peptides or an intact protein vaccine. The latter can be used to validate immunization status and to identify protective T cell epitopes in vaccine antigens. In the methods detailed here, we used versions of the well-studied Asp f3 protein expressed in a bacterial host, either as the intact full length protein or its N-terminally truncated version, comprised of residues 15-168. However, these methods are generally applicable and can well be adapted to study other protein-based subunit vaccines.

Modifying police department training programs to accommodate the use of less-than-lethal technologies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Overlin, Trudy K.; Marts, Donna J.

1995-05-01

The Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL), in response to the National Institute of Justice, less-than-lethal (LTL) technologies program, has proposed to help police departments modify their training programs to meet the challenge of training officers to use new LTL technologies. Work performed by the INEL in the development of an air bag restraint for patrol vehicles and in a technologies assessment for vehicle interdiction technologies has given laboratory researchers a better understanding of the law enforcement environment and has enabled them to evaluate potential training aids to help police departments use new technolgies and teach their officers to most efficiently and effectively use them. With the developemnt of LTL technologies as options in law enforcement comes the need for departments to adapt their current departmental training and refresher training programs to incorporate alternative weapons. This adaptation may include modifying decision making and skills training to teach officers when and how to effectively use new technologies. By assessing current programs and reviewing the training programs of other succesful agencies, a department may be able to easily adapt their current program to meet the needs of training officers in the use of LTL technologies. As litigation drove the need to develop new alternative weapons for law enforcement, it will also shape the application of the technologies when used in the field. If used incorrectly they may be ineffective, dangerous to the user, or cause more physical damage than intended. Because technology is rapidly changing, law enforcement training must keep up with the changes and meet their needs.

Understanding Migration as an Adaptation in Deltas Using a Bayesian Network Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lázár, A. N.; Adams, H.; de Campos, R. S.; Mortreux, C. C.; Clarke, D.; Nicholls, R. J.; Amisigo, B. A.

2016-12-01

Deltas are hotspots of high population density, fertile lands and dramatic environmental and anthropogenic pressures and changes. Amongst other environmental factors, sea level rise, soil salinization, water shortages and erosion threaten people's livelihoods and wellbeing. As a result, there is a growing concern that significant environmental change induced migration might occur from these areas. Migration, however, is already happening for economic, education and other reasons (e.g. livelihood change, marriage, planned relocation, etc.). Migration hence has multiple, interlinked drivers and depending on the perspective, can be considered as a positive or negative phenomenon. The DECCMA project (Deltas, Vulnerability & Climate Change: Migration & Adaptation) studies migration as part of a suite of adaptation options available to the coastal populations in the Ganges delta in Bangladesh, the Mahanadi delta in India and the Volta delta in Ghana. It aims to develop a holistic framework of analysis that assesses the impact of climate and environmental change on the migration patterns of these areas. This assessment framework will couple environmental, socio-economics and governance dimensions in an attempt to synthesise drivers and barriers and allow testing of plausible future scenarios. One of the integrative methods of DECCMA is a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model describing the decision-making of a coastal household. BBN models are built on qualitative and quantitative observations/expert knowledge and describe the probability of different events/responses etc. BBN models are especially useful to capture uncertainties of large systems and engaging with stakeholders. The DECCMA BBN model is based on household survey results from delta migrant sending areas. This presentation will describe model elements (livelihood sensitivity to climate change, local and national adaptation options, household characteristics/attitude, social networks, household decision) and initial outputs on migration and in-situ adaptation. In doing so we illustrate some key causal relationships between changes in the environment, livelihoods and migration decision.

[Adaptation and validation of the CCAENA(©) scale for the measurement of continuity of care between healthcare levels in Colombia and Brazil].

PubMed

Garcia-Subirats, Irene; Aller, Marta Beatriz; Vargas Lorenzo, Ingrid; Vázquez Navarrete, María Luisa

2015-01-01

To adapt and to validate the scale of the questionnaire Continuity of Care between Care Levels (CCAENA(©)) in the context of the Colombian and Brazilian health systems. The study consisted of two phases: 1) adaptation of the CCAENA(©) scale to the context of each country, which was tested by two pretests and a pilot test, and 2) validation by means of application of the scale in a population survey in Colombia and Brazil. The following psychometric properties were analyzed: construct validity (exploratory factor analysis), internal consistency (Cronbach's alpha and item-rest correlations), the multidimensionality of the scales (Spearman correlation coefficients), and known group validity (chi-square test). Of the 21 items of the original scale, 14 were selected and reformulated based on a statement with response options of agreement to a question with frequency response options. Factor analysis showed that items could be grouped into three factors: continuity across healthcare levels, the patient-primary care provider relationship, and the patient-secondary care provider relationship. Cronbach's alpha indicated good internal consistency (>0.80 in all the scales). The correlation coefficients suggest that the three factors could be interpreted as separated scales (<0.70) and had adequate ability to differentiate between groups. The adapted version of the CCAENA(©) shows adequate validity and reliability in both countries, maintaining a high equivalence with the original version. It is a useful and feasible tool to assess the continuity of care between healthcare levels from the users' perspective in both contexts. Copyright © 2014 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Assessment of Options for the Treatment of Nitrate Salt Wastes at Los Alamos National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robinson, Bruce Alan; Funk, David John; Stevens, Patrice Ann

2016-03-17

This paper summarizes the methodology used to evaluate options for treatment of the remediated nitrate salt waste containers at Los Alamos National Laboratory. The method selected must enable treatment of the waste drums, which consist of a mixture of complex nitrate salts (oxidizer) improperly mixed with sWheat Scoop®1, an organic kitty litter and absorbent (fuel), in a manner that renders the waste safe, meets the specifications of waste acceptance criteria, and is suitable for transport and final disposal in the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant located in Carlsbad, New Mexico. A Core Remediation Team was responsible for comprehensively reviewing the options,more » ensuring a robust, defensible treatment recommendation. The evaluation process consisted of two steps. First, a prescreening process was conducted to cull the list on the basis for a decision of feasibility of certain potential options with respect to the criteria. Then, the remaining potential options were evaluated and ranked against each of the criteria in a consistent methodology. Numerical scores were established by consensus of the review team. Finally, recommendations were developed based on current information and understanding of the scientific, technical, and regulatory situation. A discussion of the preferred options and documentation of the process used to reach the recommended treatment options are presented.« less

The Implementation of Gender-Neutral Housing: A Mixed-Methods Study across ACUHO-I Member Institutions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taub, Deborah J.; Johnson, R. Bradley; Reynolds, Torry

2016-01-01

Gender-neutral housing has recently become an option at colleges and universities across the U.S. Chief housing officers at Association of College and University Housing Officers-International member institutions were surveyed online about the status of gender-neutral housing at their respective campuses, using an instrument adapted by the…

Climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation options for forest vegetation management in the northwestern USA

Treesearch

Jessica Halofsky; David Peterson

2016-01-01

Recent vulnerability assessments, conducted in diverse regions in the northwestern United States, indicate that many commonalities exist with respect to projected vulnerabilities to climate change. Dry forests are projected to have significant changes in distribution and abundance of species, partially in response to higher temperature and lower soil moisture, but...

Field testing Northern U.S. adapted 2,4-D resistant red clover (Trifolium pratense L.)

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

2,4-Dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) resistant red clover (Trifolium pratense L.) varieties would offer producers more weed control options, particularly in mixed grass/red clover pastures. In the 1980s, work was initiated in Florida to select for 2,4-D tolerant red clover (Taylor, 1989). This Flo...

Understanding the Relation between Attitude Involvement and Response Latitude Using Item Response Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lake, Christopher J.; Withrow, Scott; Zickar, Michael J.; Wood, Nicole L.; Dalal, Dev K.; Bochinski, Joseph

2013-01-01

Adapting the original latitude of acceptance concept to Likert-type surveys, response latitudes are defined as the range of graded response options a person is willing to endorse. Response latitudes were expected to relate to attitude involvement such that high involvement was linked to narrow latitudes (the result of selective, careful…

Adaptive Flexibility and Maladaptive Routines in Selecting Fast and Frugal Decision Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Broder, Arndt; Schiffer, Stefanie

2006-01-01

Decision routines unburden the cognitive capacity of the decision maker. In changing environments, however, routines may become maladaptive. In 2 experiments with a hypothetical stock market game (n = 241), the authors tested whether decision routines tend to persist at the level of decision strategies rather than at the level of options in…

Evaluation of Two Instruction Methods to Increase Employment Options for Young Adults with Autism Spectrum Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Burke, Raymond V.; Andersen, Melissa N.; Bowen, Scott L.; Howard, Monica R.; Allen, Keith D.

2010-01-01

We evaluated the efficacy of a vocational training program including behavioral skills training, and a "performance cue system" (i.e., a proprietary iPhone application adapted for the study) to teach targeted social-vocational skills to six young adults with an Autism Spectrum Disorder. In two separate studies, participants were employed…

2007 Precision Strike Annual Programs Review

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-04-25

Adapting our methods • Remaining a flexible combined-arms force • Enabling a generation of combat- experienced decision-makers by distributing...Sustain Propulsion Network RadioMEMS IMU Flexible Engagement Options Requirements Capabilities Precision Attack Missile (PAM) 67” (with Canister...Aimpoint 6 PAM Seeker Modes PAM’s Multiple Targeting Modes Increase Flexibility , Improve Lethality PAM’s Multiple Targeting Modes Increase Flexibility

New-Concept Part-Time Employment as a Work-Family Adaptive Strategy for Women Professionals with Small Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hill, E. Jeffrey; Martinson, Vjollca; Ferris, Maria

2004-01-01

This study investigates how the option for new-concept part-time (NPT) employment influences the ability of mothers of preschool children working in professional occupations to successfully integrate work and family responsibilities. Female NPT professionals (n=279) and female full-time (FT) professionals (n=250) were compared. The NPT group…

Do we know how to reconcile preservation of landscapes with adaptation of agriculture to climate change? A case-study in a hilly area in Southern Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Menenti, Massimo; Alfieri, Silvia; Basile, Angelo; Bonfante, Antonello; Monaco, Eugenia; Riccardi, Maria; De Lorenzi, Francesca

2013-04-01

Limited impacts of climate change on agricultural yields are unlikely to induce any significant changes in current landscapes. Larger impacts, unacceptable on economic or social ground, are likely to trigger interventions towards adaptation of agricultural production systems by reducing or removing vulnerabilities to climate variability and change. Such interventions may require a transition to a different production system, i.e. complete substitution of current crops, or displacement of current crops at their current location towards other locations, e.g. at higher elevations within the landscape. We have assessed the impacts of climate change and evaluated options for adaptation of a valley in Southern Italy, dominated by vine and olive orchards with a significant presence of wheat. We have first estimated the climatic requirements of several varieties for each dominant species. Next, to identify options for adaptation we have evaluated the compatibility of such requirements with indicators of a reference (current) climate and of future climate. This climate - compatibility assessment was done for each soil unit within the valley, leading to maps of locations where each crop is expected to be compatible with climate. This leads to identify both potential crop substitutions within the entire valley and crop displacements from one location to another within the valley. Two climate scenarios were considered: reference (1961-90) and future (2021-2050) climate, the former from climatic statistics, and the latter from statistical downscaling of general circulation models (AOGCM). Climatic data consists of daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature, and daily rainfall on a grid with a spatial resolution of 35 km. We evaluated the adaptive capacity of the "Valle Telesina" (Campania Region, Southern Italy). A mechanistic model of water flow in the soil-plant-atmosphere system (SWAP) was used to describe the hydrological conditions in response to climate for each soil unit. Crop-specific input data and model parameters were estimated on the basis of local experiments and of scientific literature and assumed to be generically representative of the species. Time series of MODIS TIR data were used to downscale gridded climate data on air temperature for both the reference and the future climate. The results indicate that no complete crop substitution will be required within this time frame, i.e. the Valle Telesina will preserve its typical landscape features of a vine - olive orchards dominated production system, typical of many regions in Mediterranean Europe. On the other hand very significant crop displacements will be necessary to grow each variety under optimal hydrothermal conditions, from the point of view of both quantity and quality of yield. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Laser Ranging for Effective and Accurate Tracking of Space Debris in Low Earth Orbits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blanchet, Guillaume; Haag, Herve; Hennegrave, Laurent; Assemat, Francois; Vial, Sophie; Samain, Etienne

2013-08-01

The paper presents the results of preliminary design options for an operational laser ranging system adapted to the measurement of the distance of space debris. Thorough analysis of the operational parameters is provided with identification of performance drivers and assessment of enabling design options. Results from performance simulation demonstrate how the range measurement enables improvement of the orbit determination when combined with astrometry. Besides, experimental results on rocket-stage class debris in LEO were obtained by Astrium beginning of 2012, in collaboration with the Observatoire de la Côte d'Azur (OCA), by operating an experimental laser ranging system supported by the MéO (Métrologie Optique) telescope.

Adapting natural resource management to climate change: The South Central Oregon and Northern Rockies Adaptation Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halofsky, J.; Peterson, D. L.

2015-12-01

Concrete ways to adapt to climate change are needed to help natural resource managers take the first steps to incorporate climate change into management and take advantage of opportunities to balance the negative effects of climate change. We recently initiated two science-management climate change adaptation partnerships, one with three national forests and one national park in south central Oregon, and the other with 16 national forests, three national parks and other stakeholders in the northern Rockies region. Goals of both partnerships were to: (1) synthesize published information and data to assess the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of key resource areas, including water use, infrastructure, fisheries, and vegetation and disturbance; (2) develop science-based adaptation strategies and tactics that will help to mitigate the negative effects of climate change and assist the transition of biological systems and management to a warmer climate; (3) ensure adaptation strategies and tactics are incorporated into relevant planning documents; and (4) foster an enduring partnership to facilitate ongoing dialogue and activities related to climate change in the partnerships regions. After an initial vulnerability assessment by agency and university scientists and local resource specialists, adaptation strategies and tactics were developed in a series of scientist-manager workshops. The final vulnerability assessments and adaptation actions are incorporated in technical reports. The partnerships produced concrete adaptation options for national forest and other natural resource managers and illustrated the utility of place-based vulnerability assessments and scientist-manager workshops in adapting to climate change.

Key landscape ecology metrics for assessing climate change adaptation options: Rate of change and patchiness of impacts

USGS Publications Warehouse

López-Hoffman, Laura; Breshears, David D.; Allen, Craig D.; Miller, Marc L.

2013-01-01

Under a changing climate, devising strategies to help stakeholders adapt to alterations to ecosystems and their services is of utmost importance. In western North America, diminished snowpack and river flows are causing relatively gradual, homogeneous (system-wide) changes in ecosystems and services. In addition, increased climate variability is also accelerating the incidence of abrupt and patchy disturbances such as fires, floods and droughts. This paper posits that two key variables often considered in landscape ecology—the rate of change and the degree of patchiness of change—can aid in developing climate change adaptation strategies. We use two examples from the “borderland” region of the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico. In piñon-juniper woodland die-offs that occurred in the southwestern United States during the 2000s, ecosystem services suddenly crashed in some parts of the system while remaining unaffected in other locations. The precise timing and location of die-offs was uncertain. On the other hand, slower, homogeneous change, such as the expected declines in water supply to the Colorado River delta, will likely impact the entire ecosystem, with ecosystem services everywhere in the delta subject to alteration, and all users likely exposed. The rapidity and spatial heterogeneity of faster, patchy climate change exemplified by tree die-off suggests that decision-makers and local stakeholders would be wise to operate under a Rawlsian “veil of ignorance,” and implement adaptation strategies that allow ecosystem service users to equitably share the risk of sudden loss of ecosystem services before actual ecosystem changes occur. On the other hand, in the case of slower, homogeneous, system-wide impacts to ecosystem services as exemplified by the Colorado River delta, adaptation strategies can be implemented after the changes begin, but will require a fundamental rethinking of how ecosystems and services are used and valued. In sum, understanding how the rate of change and degree of patchiness of change will constrain adaptive options is a critical consideration in preparing for climate change.

Oily Skin: A review of Treatment Options

PubMed Central

Miller, Richard A.

2017-01-01

One of the most common dermatologic concerns is oily skin, and the demand for effective treatment options is ever apparent. This review article addresses numerous topical treatment options such as retinoids, olumacostat glasaretil, and various cosmeceutical agents. several systemic and procedural techniques that incorporate isotretinoin, spironolactone, oral contraceptives, botulinum toxin, photodynamic therapy, and lasers are reviewed as well. Each treatment option is analyzed in terms of the proposed mechanism of action, efficacy reported in the literature, and potential adverse effects. PMID:28979664

An initial evaluation of potential options for managing riparian reserves of the Aquatic Conservation Strategy of the Northwest Forest Plan

Treesearch

Gordon H. Reeves; Brian R. Pickard; K. Norman Johnson

2016-01-01

The Aquatic Conservation Strategy (ACS) of the Northwest Forest Plan guides management of riparian and aquatic ecosystems on federal lands in western Oregon, western Washington, and northern California. We applied new scientific findings and tools to evaluate two potential options, A and B, for refining interim riparian reserves to meet ACS goals and likely challenges...

Small Satellite Propulsion Options

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Myers, Roger M.; Oleson, Steven R.; Curran, Francis M.; Schneider, Steven J.

1994-01-01

Advanced chemical and low power electric propulsion offer attractive options for small satellite propulsion. Applications include orbit raising, orbit maintenance, attitude control, repositioning, and deorbit of both Earth-space and planetary spacecraft. Potential propulsion technologies for these functions include high pressure Ir/Re bipropellant engines, very low power arcjets, Hall thrusters, and pulsed plasma thrusters, all of which have been shown to operate in manners consistent with currently planned small satellites. Mission analyses show that insertion of advanced propulsion technologies enables and/or greatly enhances many planned small satellite missions. Examples of commercial, DoD, and NASA missions are provided to illustrate the potential benefits of using advanced propulsion options on small satellites.

Pawnee Nation Energy Option Analyses

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Matlock, M.; Kersey, K.; Riding In, C.

2009-07-31

In 2003, the Pawnee Nation leadership identified the need for the tribe to comprehensively address its energy issues. During a strategic energy planning workshop a general framework was laid out and the Pawnee Nation Energy Task Force was created to work toward further development of the tribe’s energy vision. The overarching goals of the “first steps” project were to identify the most appropriate focus for its strategic energy initiatives going forward, and to provide information necessary to take the next steps in pursuit of the “best fit” energy options. Based on the request of Pawnee Nation’s Energy Task Force themore » research team, consisting Tribal personnel and Summit Blue Consulting, focused on a review of renewable energy resource development potential, funding sources and utility organizational along with energy savings options. Elements of the energy demand forecasting and characterization and demand side options review remained in the scope of work, but were only addressed at a high level. Description of Activities Performed Renewable Energy Resource Development Potential The research team reviewed existing data pertaining to the availability of biomass (focusing on woody biomass, agricultural biomass/bio-energy crops, and methane capture), solar, wind and hydropower resources on the Pawnee-owned lands. Using these data, combined with assumptions about costs and revenue streams, the research team performed preliminary feasibility assessments for each resource category. The research team also reviewed available funding resources and made recommendations to Pawnee Nation highlighting those resources with the greatest potential for financially-viable development, both in the near-term and over a longer time horizon. Energy Efficiency Options While this was not a major focus of the project, the research team highlighted common strategies for reducing energy use in buildings. The team also discussed the benefits of adopting a building energy code and introduced two model energy codes Pawnee Nation should consider for adoption. Summary of Current and Expected Future Electricity Usage The research team provided a summary overview of electricity usage patterns in current buildings and included discussion of known plans for new construction. Utility Options Review Pawnee Nation electric utility options were analyzed through a four-phase process, which included: 1) summarizing the relevant utility background information; 2) gathering relevant utility assessment data; 3) developing a set of realistic Pawnee electric utility service options, and 4) analyzing the various Pawnee electric utility service options for the Pawnee Energy Team’s consideration. III. Findings and Recommendations Due to a lack of financial incentives for renewable energy, particularly at the state level, combined mediocre renewable energy resources, renewable energy development opportunities are limited for Pawnee Nation. However, near-term potential exists for development of solar hot water at the gym, and an exterior wood-fired boiler system at the tribe’s main administrative building. Pawnee Nation should also explore options for developing LFGTE resources in collaboration with the City of Pawnee. Significant potential may also exist for development of bio-energy resources within the next decade. Pawnee Nation representatives should closely monitor market developments in the bio-energy industry, establish contacts with research institutions with which the tribe could potentially partner in grant-funded research initiatives. In addition, a substantial effort by the Kaw and Cherokee tribes is underway to pursue wind development at the Chilocco School Site in northern Oklahoma where Pawnee is a joint landowner. Pawnee Nation representatives should become actively involved in these development discussions and should explore the potential for joint investment in wind development at the Chilocco site.« less

A System Dynamics Approach for the Selection of Contaminated Land Management Options

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKnight, U. S.; Kuebert, M.; Finkel, M.; Bieg, M.

2006-12-01

Large-scale contaminated land and groundwater is a widespread problem that can severely impact human health, the environment and the economy at many urban sites all over the world. Usually a considerable number of potential management solutions exist at each of these sites. A detailed investigation of all these options, however, is not economically feasible which makes streamlining of the planning and decision process a mandatory requirement. Decisions to be taken should be made as early as possible in order to reduce expenditures on site investigation. Therefore, a tiered decision-making procedure is required, including (i) identification and prioritization of focal areas of risks, (ii) feasibility screening of remediation targets and available management alternatives to narrow the range of possible options for (iii) subsequent detailed investigations of only a select group of preferable options. For each of these elements, tailored decision and investigation concepts are required. These concepts and applied methods should be specifically adapted to the type and scale of the particular decision to be taken- more target-oriented, cost-efficient investigation programs, as well as model-based assessment methods are needed (Ruegner et al. 2006). A gap exists within this framework with respect to preliminary assessment methodologies representing the first decision level. To fill this gap, a new system dynamics approach has been developed that represents the system of source- pathway-receptor sequences by means of a mass flux model. The dynamics are governed by the effects of possible remedial actions, which are described as mass flux change over time (Serapiglia et al. 2005). This approach has been implemented in the preliminary evaluation tool CARO-plus (Cost-efficiency Assessment of Remediation Options) that models the effects of potential remedial actions, including tackling the contaminant source and managing the groundwater plume. The model represents the causal relationships that exist between the state of the system, the effects of the technologies and their costs, and may considerably impact the outcome to be predicted. The tool enables a fast and effective "screening" of management scenarios using simplified approaches (analytical models). Replacing the concept of total cleanup of sites based on concentration standards, the evaluation tool contains risk modules that describe exposure pathways, i.e. transfer of contaminants from groundwater to the receptor "human being", in accordance to MEPAS (Strenge & Chamberlain 1995). As multiple lines of evidence may apply, the effects of remediation options can be analyzed on the basis of contaminant mass flux, concentrations, and/or risk indices (carcinogenic/noncarcinogenic). Costs are calculated in terms of net present values. Uncertainty is taken into account using Monte-Carlo sensitivity analyses. In the presentation, examples will be shown for how the proposed approach helps to pre-select compatible remediation options by giving an overview to the following set of questions: (i) what is the time scale for risks expected at a particular site, (ii) does the scenario reduce/control risk at the receptor, (iii) is the scenario compatible with cleanup objectives (e.g. in the case that concentration standards are still required for specific compounds present at a site), (iv) does the scenario satisfy cost objectives and can therefore be considered financially viable, (v) is the scenario acceptable to regulators and the community, and (vi) what factors are most critical to the decision-making process.

77 FR 62295 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; NASDAQ OMX PHLX LLC; Notice of Filing and Immediate Effectiveness...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-10-12

... dissuade investors from using SPY options when they can instead use an SPX option without the need for such... or for the account of a customer, shall report information as to whether such position is hedged, and... designed to address potential manipulative schemes and adverse market impact surrounding the use of options...

Will I Regret It? Anticipated Negative Emotions Modulate Choices in Moral Dilemmas

PubMed Central

Pletti, Carolina; Lotto, Lorella; Tasso, Alessandra; Sarlo, Michela

2016-01-01

We tested if post-decisional emotions of regret, guilt, shame, anger, and disgust can account for individuals’ choices in moral dilemmas depicting the choice of letting some people die (non-utilitarian option) or sacrificing one person to save them (utilitarian option). We collected participants’ choices and post-decisional emotional ratings for each option using Footbridge-type dilemmas, in which the sacrifice of one person is the means to save more people, and Trolley-type dilemmas, in which the sacrifice is only a side effect. Moreover, we computed the EEG Readiness Potential to test if the neural activity related to the last phase of decision-making was related to the emotional conflict. Participants reported generally stronger emotions for the utilitarian as compared to the non-utilitarian options, with the exception of anger and regret, which in Trolley-type dilemmas were stronger for the non-utilitarian option. Moreover, participants tended to choose the option that minimized the intensity of negative emotions, irrespective of dilemma type. No significant relationship between emotions and the amplitude of the Readiness Potential emerged. It is possible that anticipated post-decisional emotions play a role in earlier stages of decision-making. PMID:27999559

Potential for reduced methane and carbon dioxide emissions from livestock and pasture management in the tropics

PubMed Central

Thornton, Philip K.; Herrero, Mario

2010-01-01

We estimate the potential reductions in methane and carbon dioxide emissions from several livestock and pasture management options in the mixed and rangeland-based production systems in the tropics. The impacts of adoption of improved pastures, intensifying ruminant diets, changes in land-use practices, and changing breeds of large ruminants on the production of methane and carbon dioxide are calculated for two levels of adoption: complete adoption, to estimate the upper limit to reductions in these greenhouse gases (GHGs), and optimistic but plausible adoption rates taken from the literature, where these exist. Results are expressed both in GHG per ton of livestock product and in Gt CO2-eq. We estimate that the maximum mitigation potential of these options in the land-based livestock systems in the tropics amounts to approximately 7% of the global agricultural mitigation potential to 2030. Using historical adoption rates from the literature, the plausible mitigation potential of these options could contribute approximately 4% of global agricultural GHG mitigation. This could be worth on the order of $1.3 billion per year at a price of $20 per t CO2-eq. The household-level and sociocultural impacts of some of these options warrant further study, however, because livestock have multiple roles in tropical systems that often go far beyond their productive utility. PMID:20823225

Transportation pricing and finance options for California.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2006-06-01

The objective of this research project was to conduct research on the merits, costs and application potential of various transportation pricing approaches, to better inform decision makers and the public about transportation financing/pricing option ...

Analytical approach to an integrate-and-fire model with spike-triggered adaptation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwalger, Tilo; Lindner, Benjamin

2015-12-01

The calculation of the steady-state probability density for multidimensional stochastic systems that do not obey detailed balance is a difficult problem. Here we present the analytical derivation of the stationary joint and various marginal probability densities for a stochastic neuron model with adaptation current. Our approach assumes weak noise but is valid for arbitrary adaptation strength and time scale. The theory predicts several effects of adaptation on the statistics of the membrane potential of a tonically firing neuron: (i) a membrane potential distribution with a convex shape, (ii) a strongly increased probability of hyperpolarized membrane potentials induced by strong and fast adaptation, and (iii) a maximized variability associated with the adaptation current at a finite adaptation time scale.

Shuttle Hitchhiker Experiment Launcher System (SHELS)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daelemans, Gerry

1999-01-01

NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center Shuttle Small Payloads Project (SSPP), in partnership with the United States Air Force and NASA's Explorer Program, is developing a Shuttle based launch system called SHELS (Shuttle Hitchhiker Experiment Launcher System), which shall be capable of launching up to a 400 pound spacecraft from the Shuttle cargo bay. SHELS consists of a Marman band clamp push-plate ejection system mounted to a launch structure; the launch structure is mounted to one Orbiter sidewall adapter beam. Avionics mounted to the adapter beam will interface with Orbiter electrical services and provide optional umbilical services and ejection circuitry. SHELS provides an array of manifesting possibilities to a wide range of satellites.

Prospecting Rovers for Lunar Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Graham, Jerry B.; Vaughn, Jason A.; Farmer, Jeffery T.

2007-01-01

A study of lunar rover options for exploring the permanently shadowed regions of the lunar environment is presented. The potential for nearly continuous solar illumination coupled with the potential for water ice, focus exploration planner's attention on the polar regions of the moon. These regions feature craters that scientists have reason to believe may contain water ice. Water ice can be easily converted to fuel cell reactants, breathing oxygen, potable water, and rocket propellant. For these reasons, the NASA Robotic Lunar Exploration Program (RLEP) sponsored a study of potential prospecting rover concepts as one part of the RLEP-2 Pre-Phase A. Numerous vehicle configurations and power, thermal, and communication options are investigated. Rover options in the 400kg to 530kg class are developed which are capable of either confirming the presence of water ice at the poles, or conclusively demonstrating its absence.

Designing Forest Adaptation Experiments through Manager-Scientist Partnerships

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nagel, L. M.; Swanston, C.; Janowiak, M.

2014-12-01

Three common forest adaptation options discussed in the context of an uncertain future climate are: creating resistance, promoting resilience, and enabling forests to respond to change. Though there is consensus on the broad management goals addressed by each of these options, translating these concepts into management plans specific for individual forest types that vary in structure, composition, and function remains a challenge. We will describe a decision-making framework that we employed within a manager-scientist partnership to develop a suite of adaptation treatments for two contrasting forest types as part of a long-term forest management experiment. The first, in northern Minnesota, is a red pine-dominated forest with components of white pine, aspen, paper birch, and northern red oak, with a hazel understory. The second, in southwest Colorado, is a warm-dry mixed conifer forest dominated by ponderosa pine, white fir, and Douglas-fir, with scattered aspen and an understory of Gambel oak. The current conditions at both sites are characterized by overstocking with moderate-to-high fuel loading, vulnerability to numerous forest health threats, and are generally uncharacteristic of historic structure and composition. The desired future condition articulated by managers for each site included elements of historic structure and natural range of variability, but were greatly tempered by known vulnerabilities and projected changes to climate and disturbance patterns. The resultant range of treatments we developed are distinct for each forest type, and address a wide range of management objectives.

How can clinical practice guidelines be adapted to facilitate shared decision making? A qualitative key-informant study.

PubMed

van der Weijden, Trudy; Pieterse, Arwen H; Koelewijn-van Loon, Marije S; Knaapen, Loes; Légaré, France; Boivin, Antoine; Burgers, Jako S; Stiggelbout, Anne M; Faber, Marjan; Elwyn, Glyn

2013-10-01

To explore how clinical practice guidelines can be adapted to facilitate shared decision making. This was a qualitative key-informant study with group discussions and semi-structured interviews. First, 75 experts in guideline development or shared decision making participated in group discussions at two international conferences. Next, health professionals known as experts in depression or breast cancer, experts on clinical practice guidelines and/or shared decision making, and patient representatives were interviewed (N=20). Using illustrative treatment decisions on depression or breast cancer, we asked the interviewees to indicate as specifically as they could how guidelines could be used to facilitate shared decision making. Interviewees suggested some generic strategies, namely to include a separate chapter on the importance of shared decision making, to use language that encourages patient involvement, and to develop patient versions of guidelines. Recommendation-specific strategies, related to specific decision points in the guideline, were also suggested: These include structuring the presentation of healthcare options to increase professionals' option awareness; structuring the deliberation process between professionals and patients; and providing relevant patient support tools embedded at important decision points in the guideline. This study resulted in an overview of strategies to adapt clinical practice guidelines to facilitate shared decision making. Some strategies seemed more contentious than others. Future research should assess the feasibility and impact of these strategies to make clinical practice guidelines more conducive to facilitate shared decision making.

A vulnerability tool for adapting water and aquatic resources to climate change and extremes on the Shoshone National Forest, Wyoming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, J.; Joyce, L. A.; Armel, B.; Bevenger, G.; Zubic, R.

2011-12-01

Climate change introduces a significant challenge for land managers and decision makers managing the natural resources that provide many benefits from forests. These benefits include water for urban and agricultural uses, wildlife habitat, erosion and climate control, aquifer recharge, stream flows regulation, water temperature regulation, and cultural services such as outdoor recreation and aesthetic enjoyment. The Forest Service has responded to this challenge by developing a national strategy for responding to climate change (the National Roadmap for Responding to Climate Change, July 2010). In concert with this national strategy, the Forest Service's Westwide Climate Initiative has conducted 4 case studies on individual Forests in the western U.S to develop climate adaptation tools. Western National Forests are particularly vulnerable to climate change as they have high-mountain topography, diversity in climate and vegetation, large areas of water limited ecosystems, and increasing urbanization. Information about the vulnerability and capacity of resources to adapt to climate change and extremes is lacking. There is an urgent need to provide customized tools and synthesized local scale information about the impacts to resources from future climate change and extremes, as well as develop science based adaptation options and strategies in National Forest management and planning. The case study on the Shoshone National Forest has aligned its objectives with management needs by developing a climate extreme vulnerability tool that guides adaptation options development. The vulnerability tool determines the likely degree to which native Yellowstone cutthroat trout and water availability are susceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change extremes. We spatially categorize vulnerability for water and native trout resources using exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity indicators that use minimum and maximum climate and GIS data. Results show that the vulnerability of water availability may increase in areas that have less storage and become more dominated by rain instead of snow. Native trout habitat was found to improve in some areas from warmer temperatures suggesting future refugia habitat may need to be a focus of conservation efforts. The climate extreme vulnerability tool provides Forest Service resource managers science based information that guides adaptation strategy development; prioritize conservation projects; guides monitoring efforts, and helps promote more resilient ecosystems undergoing the effects of climate change.

Testing the pyramid truth wavefront sensor for NFIRAOS in the lab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mieda, Etsuko; Rosensteiner, Matthias; van Kooten, Maaike; Veran, Jean-Pierre; Lardiere, Olivier; Herriot, Glen

2016-07-01

For today and future adaptive optics observations, sodium laser guide stars (LGSs) are crucial; however, the LGS elongation problem due to the sodium layer has to be compensated, in particular for extremely large telescopes. In this paper, we describe the concept of truth wavefront sensing as a solution and present its design using a pyramid wavefront sensor (PWFS) to improve NFIRAOS (Narrow Field InfraRed Adaptive Optics System), the first light adaptive optics system for Thirty Meter Telescope. We simulate and test the truth wavefront sensor function under a controlled environment using the HeNOS (Herzberg NFIRAOS Optical Simulator) bench, a scaled-down NFIRAOS bench at NRC-Herzberg. We also touch on alternative pyramid component options because despite recent high demands for PWFSs, we suffer from the lack of pyramid supplies due to engineering difficulties.

The limits of adaptation: humans and the predator-prey arms race.

PubMed

Vermeij, Geerat J

2012-07-01

In the history of life, species have adapted to their consumers by evolving a wide variety of defenses. By contrast, animal species harvested in the wild by humans have not adapted structurally. Nonhuman predators have high failure rates at one or more stages of an attack, indicating that victim species have spatial refuges or phenotypic defenses that permit further functional improvement. A new compilation confirms that species in the wild cannot achieve immunity from human predation with structural defenses. The only remaining options are to become undesirable or to live in or escape to places where harvesting by people is curtailed. Escalation between prey defenses and predators' weapons may be restricted under human dominance to interactions involving those low-level predators that have benefited from human overexploitation of top consumers. © 2012 The Author.

Skin allograft and vascularized composite allograft: potential for long-term efficacy in the context of lymphatic modulation.

PubMed

Rinkinen, Jacob; Selley, Ryan; Agarwal, Shailesh; Loder, Shawn; Levi, Benjamin

2014-01-01

Tissue transplantation restores form and function in burn patients. The treatment of burn injuries is influenced by severity, location, and the percentage of total body surface area. There have been a number of different techniques developed to temporize and repair the destroyed tissue. However, in patients with large wound burden, sufficient donor site tissue may not be available for autograft harvesting. Such extensive burns necessitate other temporary and permanent options for wound coverage such as skin or vascularized composite allografts (VCA). Rejection of these tissues presents an ongoing problem which is currently managed using a host of systemic immunosuppressive medications. This article discusses the mechanism behind the innate and adaptive immune systems rejection of the allografts. By understanding these pathways, various techniques using immunomodulatory protocols have led to increased allograft survival. However, our primary interest lies in the initial recognition of the graft. We tailor this article to have a specific emphasis on lymphatic modulation as a potential adjunctive therapy. Reviews of the studies evaluating the effect of lymph node modulation on graft survival are described with future implications to allograft transplant research.

Barriers and Opportunities for Local-level Action on Climate ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This presentation will highlight findings from a soon-to-be-released report (Climate Change Impacts and Potential Stormwater Responses in the Chesapeake and Great Lakes Regions) that is being developed as a technical input to the National Climate Assessment. The report is the product of a collaborative effort involving the Environmental Protection Agency, the Great Lakes Adaptation Assessment for Cities Project of the Graham Sustainability Institute at the University of Michigan, ICF International, Lake Superior National Estuarine Research Reserve, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Office for Coastal Management, and Old Woman Creek National Estuarine Research Reserve. The report provides key takeaways from eight similar but locally-specific efforts to explore the potential impacts of changing precipitation patterns on stormwater management and consider options (e.g., green infrastructure, low impact development) to address those impacts. The presentation will highlight some of the lessons regarding: incorporating climate change into planning (including dealing with uncertainty); building local capacity; identifying and communicating costs and benefits of green infrastructure; and implementation within the current governance structure. Presentation about workshops held in the Chesapeake Bay and Great Lakes regions to discuss impacts of climate change on stormwater management.

Vulnerability of maize production under future climate change: possible adaptation strategies.

PubMed

Bannayan, Mohammad; Paymard, Parisa; Ashraf, Batool

2016-10-01

Climate change can affect the productivity and geographic distribution of crops. Therefore, evaluation of adaptive management options is crucial in dealing with negative impacts of climate change. The objectives of this study were to simulate the impacts of climate change on maize production in the north-east of Iran. Moreover, vulnerability index which indicated that how much of the crop yield loss is related to the drought was computed for each location to identify where adaptation and mitigation strategies are effective. Different sowing dates were also applied as an adaptation approach to decrease the negative impacts of climate change in study area. The results showed that the maize yield would decline during the 21st century from -2.6% to -82% at all study locations in comparison with the baseline. The result of vulnerability index also indicated that using the adaptation strategies could be effective in all of the study areas. Using different sowing dates as an adaptation approach showed that delaying the sowing date will be advantageous in order to obtain higher yield in all study locations in future. This study provided insight regarding the climate change impacts on maize production and the efficacy of adaptation strategies. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate change and pastoralism: impacts, consequences and adaptation.

PubMed

Herrero, M; Addison, J; Bedelian, C; Carabine, E; Havlík, P; Henderson, B; Van De Steeg, J; Thornton, P K

2016-11-01

The authors discuss the main climate change impacts on pastoralist societies, including those on rangelands, livestock and other natural resources, and their extended repercussions on food security, incomes and vulnerability. The impacts of climate change on the rangelands of the globe and on the vulnerability of the people who inhabit them will be severe and diverse, and will require multiple, simultaneous responses. In higher latitudes, the removal of temperature constraints might increase pasture production and livestock productivity, but in tropical arid lands, the impacts are highly location specific, but mostly negative. The authors outline several adaptation options, ranging from implementing new technical practices and diversifying income sources to finding institutional support and introducing new market mechanisms, all of which are pivotal for enhancing the capacity of pastoralists to adapt to climate variability and change. Due to the dynamism of all the changes affecting pastoral societies, strategies that lock pastoral societies into specified development pathways could be maladaptive. Flexible and evolving combinations of practices and policies are the key to successful pastoral adaptation.

Do people treat missing information adaptively when making inferences?

PubMed

Garcia-Retamero, Rocio; Rieskamp, Jörg

2009-10-01

When making inferences, people are often confronted with situations with incomplete information. Previous research has led to a mixed picture about how people react to missing information. Options include ignoring missing information, treating it as either positive or negative, using the average of past observations for replacement, or using the most frequent observation of the available information as a placeholder. The accuracy of these inference mechanisms depends on characteristics of the environment. When missing information is uniformly distributed, it is most accurate to treat it as the average, whereas when it is negatively correlated with the criterion to be judged, treating missing information as if it were negative is most accurate. Whether people treat missing information adaptively according to the environment was tested in two studies. The results show that participants were sensitive to how missing information was distributed in an environment and most frequently selected the mechanism that was most adaptive. From these results the authors conclude that reacting to missing information in different ways is an adaptive response to environmental characteristics.

CosmosDG: An hp -adaptive Discontinuous Galerkin Code for Hyper-resolved Relativistic MHD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Anninos, Peter; Lau, Cheuk; Bryant, Colton

We have extended Cosmos++, a multidimensional unstructured adaptive mesh code for solving the covariant Newtonian and general relativistic radiation magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations, to accommodate both discrete finite volume and arbitrarily high-order finite element structures. The new finite element implementation, called CosmosDG, is based on a discontinuous Galerkin (DG) formulation, using both entropy-based artificial viscosity and slope limiting procedures for the regularization of shocks. High-order multistage forward Euler and strong-stability preserving Runge–Kutta time integration options complement high-order spatial discretization. We have also added flexibility in the code infrastructure allowing for both adaptive mesh and adaptive basis order refinement to be performedmore » separately or simultaneously in a local (cell-by-cell) manner. We discuss in this report the DG formulation and present tests demonstrating the robustness, accuracy, and convergence of our numerical methods applied to special and general relativistic MHD, although we note that an equivalent capability currently also exists in CosmosDG for Newtonian systems.« less

CosmosDG: An hp-adaptive Discontinuous Galerkin Code for Hyper-resolved Relativistic MHD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anninos, Peter; Bryant, Colton; Fragile, P. Chris; Holgado, A. Miguel; Lau, Cheuk; Nemergut, Daniel

2017-08-01

We have extended Cosmos++, a multidimensional unstructured adaptive mesh code for solving the covariant Newtonian and general relativistic radiation magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations, to accommodate both discrete finite volume and arbitrarily high-order finite element structures. The new finite element implementation, called CosmosDG, is based on a discontinuous Galerkin (DG) formulation, using both entropy-based artificial viscosity and slope limiting procedures for the regularization of shocks. High-order multistage forward Euler and strong-stability preserving Runge-Kutta time integration options complement high-order spatial discretization. We have also added flexibility in the code infrastructure allowing for both adaptive mesh and adaptive basis order refinement to be performed separately or simultaneously in a local (cell-by-cell) manner. We discuss in this report the DG formulation and present tests demonstrating the robustness, accuracy, and convergence of our numerical methods applied to special and general relativistic MHD, although we note that an equivalent capability currently also exists in CosmosDG for Newtonian systems.

Adaptation as a political process: adjusting to drought and conflict in Kenya's drylands.

PubMed

Eriksen, Siri; Lind, Jeremy

2009-05-01

In this article, we argue that people's adjustments to multiple shocks and changes, such as conflict and drought, are intrinsically political processes that have uneven outcomes. Strengthening local adaptive capacity is a critical component of adapting to climate change. Based on fieldwork in two areas in Kenya, we investigate how people seek to access livelihood adjustment options and promote particular adaptation interests through forming social relations and political alliances to influence collective decision-making. First, we find that, in the face of drought and conflict, relations are formed among individuals, politicians, customary institutions, and government administration aimed at retaining or strengthening power bases in addition to securing material means of survival. Second, national economic and political structures and processes affect local adaptive capacity in fundamental ways, such as through the unequal allocation of resources across regions, development policy biased against pastoralism, and competition for elected political positions. Third, conflict is part and parcel of the adaptation process, not just an external factor inhibiting local adaptation strategies. Fourth, there are relative winners and losers of adaptation, but whether or not local adjustments to drought and conflict compound existing inequalities depends on power relations at multiple geographic scales that shape how conflicting interests are negotiated locally. Climate change adaptation policies are unlikely to be successful or minimize inequity unless the political dimensions of local adaptation are considered; however, existing power structures and conflicts of interests represent political obstacles to developing such policies.

Adaptation as a Political Process: Adjusting to Drought and Conflict in Kenya's Drylands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eriksen, Siri; Lind, Jeremy

2009-05-01

In this article, we argue that people’s adjustments to multiple shocks and changes, such as conflict and drought, are intrinsically political processes that have uneven outcomes. Strengthening local adaptive capacity is a critical component of adapting to climate change. Based on fieldwork in two areas in Kenya, we investigate how people seek to access livelihood adjustment options and promote particular adaptation interests through forming social relations and political alliances to influence collective decision-making. First, we find that, in the face of drought and conflict, relations are formed among individuals, politicians, customary institutions, and government administration aimed at retaining or strengthening power bases in addition to securing material means of survival. Second, national economic and political structures and processes affect local adaptive capacity in fundamental ways, such as through the unequal allocation of resources across regions, development policy biased against pastoralism, and competition for elected political positions. Third, conflict is part and parcel of the adaptation process, not just an external factor inhibiting local adaptation strategies. Fourth, there are relative winners and losers of adaptation, but whether or not local adjustments to drought and conflict compound existing inequalities depends on power relations at multiple geographic scales that shape how conflicting interests are negotiated locally. Climate change adaptation policies are unlikely to be successful or minimize inequity unless the political dimensions of local adaptation are considered; however, existing power structures and conflicts of interests represent political obstacles to developing such policies.

Adaptation options to future climate of maize crop in Southern Italy examined using thermal sums

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Di Tommasi, P.; Alfieri, S. M.; Bonfante, A.; Basile, A.; De Lorenzi, F.; Menenti, M.

2012-04-01

Future climate scenarios predict substantial changes in air temperature within a few decades and agriculture needs to increase the capacity of adaptation both by changing spatial distribution of crops and shifting timing of management. In this context the prediction of future behaviour of crops with respect to present climate could be useful for farm and landscape management. In this work, thermal sums were used to simulate a maize crop in a future scenario, in terms of length of the growing season and of intervals between the main phenological stages. The area under study is the Sele plain (Campania Region), a pedo-climatic homogeneous area, one of the most agriculturally advanced and relevant flatland in Southern Italy. Maize was selected for the present study since it is extensively grown in the Sele Plain for water buffalofeeding,. Daily time-series of climatic data of the area under study were generated within the Italian project AGROSCENARI, and include maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. The 1961-1990 and the 1998-2008 periods were compared to a future climate scenario (2021-2050). Future time series were generated using a statistical downscaling technique (Tomozeiu et al., 2007) from general circulation models (AOGCM). Differences in crop development length were calculated for different maize varieties under 3 management options for sowing time: custom date (typical for the area), before and after custom date. The interactions between future thermal regime and the length of growing season under the different management options were analyzed. Moreover, frequency of spells of high temperatures during the anthesis was examined. The feasibility of the early sowing option was discussed in relation with field trafficability at the beginning of the crop cycle. The work was carried out within the Italian national project AGROSCENARI funded by the Ministry for Agricultural, Food and Forest Policies (MIPAAF, D.M. 8608/7303/2008)

Strategic Planning and Energy Options Analysis for the Fort Peck Assiniboine and Sioux Tribes. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Williamson, Jim S; Greenwood Village, CO 80112

2007-03-31

Strategic Planning and Energy Options Analysis provides the Fort Peck Tribes with a tool to build analytical capabilities and local capacity to extract the natural and energy resource potential for the benefit of the tribal community. Each resource is identified irrespective of the development potential and is viewed as an absolute resulting in a comprehensive resource assessment for Tribal energy planning

Enhanced attention amplifies face adaptation.

PubMed

Rhodes, Gillian; Jeffery, Linda; Evangelista, Emma; Ewing, Louise; Peters, Marianne; Taylor, Libby

2011-08-15

Perceptual adaptation not only produces striking perceptual aftereffects, but also enhances coding efficiency and discrimination by calibrating coding mechanisms to prevailing inputs. Attention to simple stimuli increases adaptation, potentially enhancing its functional benefits. Here we show that attention also increases adaptation to faces. In Experiment 1, face identity aftereffects increased when attention to adapting faces was increased using a change detection task. In Experiment 2, figural (distortion) face aftereffects increased when attention was increased using a snap game (detecting immediate repeats) during adaptation. Both were large effects. Contributions of low-level adaptation were reduced using free viewing (both experiments) and a size change between adapt and test faces (Experiment 2). We suggest that attention may enhance adaptation throughout the entire cortical visual pathway, with functional benefits well beyond the immediate advantages of selective processing of potentially important stimuli. These results highlight the potential to facilitate adaptive updating of face-coding mechanisms by strategic deployment of attentional resources. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automobiles and global warming: Alternative fuels and other options for carbon dioxide emissions reduction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sagar, A.D.

Automobiles are a source of considerable pollution at the global level, including a significant fraction of the total greenhouse gas emissions. Alternative fuels have received some attention as potential options to curtail the carbon dioxide emissions from motor vehicles. This article discusses the feasibility and desirability (from a technical as well as a broader environmental perspective) of the large-scale production and use of alternative fuels as a strategy to mitigate automotive carbon dioxide emissions. Other options such as improving vehicle efficiency and switching to more efficient modes of passenger transportation are also discussed. These latter options offer an effective andmore » immediate way to tackle the greenhouse and other pollutant emission from automobiles, especially as the limitations of currently available alternative fuels and the technological and other constraints for potential future alternatives are revealed.« less

On the thermodynamic framework of generalized coupled thermoelastic-viscoplastic-damage modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arnold, S. M.; Saleeb, A. F.

1991-01-01

A complete potential based framework using internal state variables is put forth for the derivation of reversible and irreversible constitutive equations. In this framework, the existence of the total (integrated) form of either the (Helmholtz) free energy or the (Gibbs) complementary free energy are assumed a priori. Two options for describing the flow and evolutionary equations are described, wherein option one (the fully coupled form) is shown to be over restrictive while the second option (the decoupled form) provides significant flexibility. As a consequence of the decoupled form, a new operator, i.e., the Compliance operator, is defined which provides a link between the assumed Gibb's and complementary dissipation potential and ensures a number of desirable numerical features, for example the symmetry of the resulting consistent tangent stiffness matrix. An important conclusion reached, is that although many theories in the literature do not conform to the general potential framework outlined, it is still possible in some cases, by slight modifications of the used forms, to restore the complete potential structure.

H2@Scale Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ruth, Mark

2017-07-12

'H2@Scale' is a concept based on the opportunity for hydrogen to act as an intermediate between energy sources and uses. Hydrogen has the potential to be used like the primary intermediate in use today, electricity, because it too is fungible. This presentation summarizes the H2@Scale analysis efforts performed during the first third of 2017. Results of technical potential uses and supply options are summarized and show that the technical potential demand for hydrogen is 60 million metric tons per year and that the U.S. has sufficient domestic resources to meet that demand. A high level infrastructure analysis is also presentedmore » that shows an 85% increase in energy on the grid if all hydrogen is produced from grid electricity. However, a preliminary spatial assessment shows that supply is sufficient in most counties across the U.S. The presentation also shows plans for analysis of the economic potential for the H2@Scale concept. Those plans involve developing supply and demand curves for potential hydrogen generation options and as compared to other options for use of that hydrogen.« less

Spike-Threshold Adaptation Predicted by Membrane Potential Dynamics In Vivo

PubMed Central

Fontaine, Bertrand; Peña, José Luis; Brette, Romain

2014-01-01

Neurons encode information in sequences of spikes, which are triggered when their membrane potential crosses a threshold. In vivo, the spiking threshold displays large variability suggesting that threshold dynamics have a profound influence on how the combined input of a neuron is encoded in the spiking. Threshold variability could be explained by adaptation to the membrane potential. However, it could also be the case that most threshold variability reflects noise and processes other than threshold adaptation. Here, we investigated threshold variation in auditory neurons responses recorded in vivo in barn owls. We found that spike threshold is quantitatively predicted by a model in which the threshold adapts, tracking the membrane potential at a short timescale. As a result, in these neurons, slow voltage fluctuations do not contribute to spiking because they are filtered by threshold adaptation. More importantly, these neurons can only respond to input spikes arriving together on a millisecond timescale. These results demonstrate that fast adaptation to the membrane potential captures spike threshold variability in vivo. PMID:24722397

US strategy for forest management adaptation to climate change: building a framework for decision making

Treesearch

V. Alaric Sample; Jessica E. Halofsky; David L. Peterson

2014-01-01

This paper describes methods developed to (1) assess current risks, vulnerabilities, and gaps in knowledge; (2) engage internal agency resources and external partners in the development of options and solutions; and (3) manage forest resources for resilience, not just in terms of natural ecosystems but in affected human communities as well. We describe an approach...

Does Decision Quality (Always) Increase with the Size of Information Samples? Some Vicissitudes in Applying the Law of Large Numbers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fiedler, Klaus; Kareev, Yaakov

2006-01-01

Adaptive decision making requires that contingencies between decision options and their relative assets be assessed accurately and quickly. The present research addresses the challenging notion that contingencies may be more visible from small than from large samples of observations. An algorithmic account for such a seemingly paradoxical effect…