Antidepressant response in patients with major depression exposed to NSAIDs: a pharmacovigilance study.

PubMed

Gallagher, Patience J; Castro, Victor; Fava, Maurizio; Weilburg, Jeffrey B; Murphy, Shawn N; Gainer, Vivian S; Churchill, Susanne E; Kohane, Isaac S; Iosifescu, Dan V; Smoller, Jordan W; Perlis, Roy H

2012-10-01

OBJECTIVE It has been suggested that there is a mechanism by which nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) may interfere with antidepressant response, and poorer outcomes among NSAID-treated patients were reported in the Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression (STAR*D) study. To attempt to confirm this association in an independent population-based treatment cohort and explore potential confounding variables, the authors examined use of NSAIDs and related medications among 1,528 outpatients in a New England health care system. METHOD Treatment outcomes were classified using a validated machine learning tool applied to electronic medical records. Logistic regression was used to examine the association between medication exposure and treatment outcomes, adjusted for potential confounding variables. To further elucidate confounding and treatment specificity of the observed effects, data from the STAR*D study were reanalyzed. RESULTS NSAID exposure was associated with a greater likelihood of depression classified as treatment resistant compared with depression classified as responsive to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (odds ratio=1.55, 95% CI=1.21-2.00). This association was apparent in the NSAIDs-only group but not in those using other agents with NSAID-like mechanisms (cyclooxygenase-2 inhibitors and salicylates). Inclusion of age, sex, ethnicity, and measures of comorbidity and health care utilization in regression models indicated confounding; association with outcome was no longer significant in fully adjusted models. Reanalysis of STAR*D results likewise identified an association in NSAIDs but not NSAID-like drugs, with more modest effects persisting after adjustment for potential confounding variables. CONCLUSIONS These results support an association between NSAID use and poorer antidepressant outcomes in major depressive disorder but indicate that some of the observed effect may be a result of confounding.

Cellular GFP Toxicity and Immunogenicity: Potential Confounders in in Vivo Cell Tracking Experiments.

PubMed

Ansari, Amir Mehdi; Ahmed, A Karim; Matsangos, Aerielle E; Lay, Frank; Born, Louis J; Marti, Guy; Harmon, John W; Sun, Zhaoli

2016-10-01

Green Fluorescent protein (GFP), used as a cellular tag, provides researchers with a valuable method of measuring gene expression and cell tracking. However, there is evidence to suggest that the immunogenicity and cytotoxicity of GFP potentially confounds the interpretation of in vivo experimental data. Studies have shown that GFP expression can deteriorate over time as GFP tagged cells are prone to death. Therefore, the cells that were originally marked with GFP do not survive and cannot be accurately traced over time. This review will present current evidence for the immunogenicity and cytotoxicity of GFP in in vivo studies by characterizing these responses.

Controlling for seasonal patterns and time varying confounders in time-series epidemiological models: a simulation study.

PubMed

Perrakis, Konstantinos; Gryparis, Alexandros; Schwartz, Joel; Le Tertre, Alain; Katsouyanni, Klea; Forastiere, Francesco; Stafoggia, Massimo; Samoli, Evangelia

2014-12-10

An important topic when estimating the effect of air pollutants on human health is choosing the best method to control for seasonal patterns and time varying confounders, such as temperature and humidity. Semi-parametric Poisson time-series models include smooth functions of calendar time and weather effects to control for potential confounders. Case-crossover (CC) approaches are considered efficient alternatives that control seasonal confounding by design and allow inclusion of smooth functions of weather confounders through their equivalent Poisson representations. We evaluate both methodological designs with respect to seasonal control and compare spline-based approaches, using natural splines and penalized splines, and two time-stratified CC approaches. For the spline-based methods, we consider fixed degrees of freedom, minimization of the partial autocorrelation function, and general cross-validation as smoothing criteria. Issues of model misspecification with respect to weather confounding are investigated under simulation scenarios, which allow quantifying omitted, misspecified, and irrelevant-variable bias. The simulations are based on fully parametric mechanisms designed to replicate two datasets with different mortality and atmospheric patterns. Overall, minimum partial autocorrelation function approaches provide more stable results for high mortality counts and strong seasonal trends, whereas natural splines with fixed degrees of freedom perform better for low mortality counts and weak seasonal trends followed by the time-season-stratified CC model, which performs equally well in terms of bias but yields higher standard errors. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Refining adverse drug reaction signals by incorporating interaction variables identified using emergent pattern mining.

PubMed

Reps, Jenna M; Aickelin, Uwe; Hubbard, Richard B

2016-02-01

To develop a framework for identifying and incorporating candidate confounding interaction terms into a regularised cox regression analysis to refine adverse drug reaction signals obtained via longitudinal observational data. We considered six drug families that are commonly associated with myocardial infarction in observational healthcare data, but where the causal relationship ground truth is known (adverse drug reaction or not). We applied emergent pattern mining to find itemsets of drugs and medical events that are associated with the development of myocardial infarction. These are the candidate confounding interaction terms. We then implemented a cohort study design using regularised cox regression that incorporated and accounted for the candidate confounding interaction terms. The methodology was able to account for signals generated due to confounding and a cox regression with elastic net regularisation correctly ranking the drug families known to be true adverse drug reactions above those that are not. This was not the case without the inclusion of the candidate confounding interaction terms, where confounding leads to a non-adverse drug reaction being ranked highest. The methodology is efficient, can identify high-order confounding interactions and does not require expert input to specify outcome specific confounders, so it can be applied for any outcome of interest to quickly refine its signals. The proposed method shows excellent potential to overcome some forms of confounding and therefore reduce the false positive rate for signal analysis using longitudinal data. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Telomere length and telomerase in a well-characterized sample of individuals with major depressive disorder compared to controls.

PubMed

Simon, Naomi M; Walton, Zandra E; Bui, Eric; Prescott, Jennifer; Hoge, Elizabeth; Keshaviah, Aparna; Schwarz, Noah; Dryman, Taylor; Ojserkis, Rebecca A; Kovachy, Benjamin; Mischoulon, David; Worthington, John; De Vivo, Immaculata; Fava, Maurizio; Wong, Kwok-Kin

2015-08-01

Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) is a marker of cellular turnover and oxidative stress. Studies suggest major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with oxidative stress, but examinations of MDD and LTL have yielded mixed results, likely because of differences in measurement methods and unmeasured confounding. This study examined LTL and telomerase activity in 166 individuals with MDD compared to 166 age- and gender-matched matched controls free of any psychiatric disorder, using well-validated assays and clinical assessment methods, and controlling for a range of potential confounders. Subjects aged 18 to 70 were evaluated by trained raters and provided blood for LTL and telomerase activity measurement. LTL was assayed using Southern blot and replicated with qPCR, and telomerase activity was assayed with a repeat amplification protocol using a commercial kit. There was no significant difference in telomere length for individuals with MDD [mean (SD)=9.1 (3.0)kbp] compared to controls [mean(SD)=8.9(2.5)kbp] measured by Southern blot (p=0.65) or by confirmatory qPCR (p=0.91) assays. Controlling for potential confounders did not alter the results. Telomerase activity did not differ by MDD diagnosis overall (p=0.40), but the effect of MDD was significantly modified by gender (t(299)=2.67, p=0.0079) even after controlling for potential confounders, with telomerase activity significantly greater only in males with MDD versus controls. Our well-characterized, well-powered examination of concurrently assessed telomere length and telomerase activity in individuals with clinically significant, chronic MDD and matched controls failed to provide strong evidence of an association of MDD with shorter LTL, while telomerase activity was higher in men with MDD [corrected]. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive design of visual perception experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

O'Connor, John D.; Hixson, Jonathan; Thomas, James M., Jr.; Peterson, Matthew S.; Parasuraman, Raja

2010-04-01

Meticulous experimental design may not always prevent confounds from affecting experimental data acquired during visual perception experiments. Although experimental controls reduce the potential effects of foreseen sources of interference, interaction, or noise, they are not always adequate for preventing the confounding effects of unforeseen forces. Visual perception experimentation is vulnerable to unforeseen confounds because of the nature of the associated cognitive processes involved in the decision task. Some confounds are beyond the control of experimentation, such as what a participant does immediately prior to experimental participation, or the participant's attitude or emotional state. Other confounds may occur through ignorance of practical control methods on the part of the experiment's designer. The authors conducted experiments related to experimental fatigue and initially achieved significant results that were, upon re-examination, attributable to a lack of adequate controls. Re-examination of the original results and the processes and events that led to them yielded a second experimental design with more experimental controls and significantly different results. The authors propose that designers of visual perception experiments can benefit from planning to use a test-fix-test or adaptive experimental design cycle, so that unforeseen confounds in the initial design can be remedied.

Methods to control for unmeasured confounding in pharmacoepidemiology: an overview.

PubMed

Uddin, Md Jamal; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Ali, Mohammed Sanni; de Boer, Anthonius; Roes, Kit C B; Chowdhury, Muhammad A B; Klungel, Olaf H

2016-06-01

Background Unmeasured confounding is one of the principal problems in pharmacoepidemiologic studies. Several methods have been proposed to detect or control for unmeasured confounding either at the study design phase or the data analysis phase. Aim of the Review To provide an overview of commonly used methods to detect or control for unmeasured confounding and to provide recommendations for proper application in pharmacoepidemiology. Methods/Results Methods to control for unmeasured confounding in the design phase of a study are case only designs (e.g., case-crossover, case-time control, self-controlled case series) and the prior event rate ratio adjustment method. Methods that can be applied in the data analysis phase include, negative control method, perturbation variable method, instrumental variable methods, sensitivity analysis, and ecological analysis. A separate group of methods are those in which additional information on confounders is collected from a substudy. The latter group includes external adjustment, propensity score calibration, two-stage sampling, and multiple imputation. Conclusion As the performance and application of the methods to handle unmeasured confounding may differ across studies and across databases, we stress the importance of using both statistical evidence and substantial clinical knowledge for interpretation of the study results.

Coping with confounds in multivoxel pattern analysis: what should we do about reaction time differences? A comment on Todd, Nystrom & Cohen 2013.

PubMed

Woolgar, Alexandra; Golland, Polina; Bode, Stefan

2014-09-01

Multivoxel pattern analysis (MVPA) is a sensitive and increasingly popular method for examining differences between neural activation patterns that cannot be detected using classical mass-univariate analysis. Recently, Todd et al. ("Confounds in multivariate pattern analysis: Theory and rule representation case study", 2013, NeuroImage 77: 157-165) highlighted a potential problem for these methods: high sensitivity to confounds at the level of individual participants due to the use of directionless summary statistics. Unlike traditional mass-univariate analyses where confounding activation differences in opposite directions tend to approximately average out at group level, group level MVPA results may be driven by any activation differences that can be discriminated in individual participants. In Todd et al.'s empirical data, factoring out differences in reaction time (RT) reduced a classifier's ability to distinguish patterns of activation pertaining to two task rules. This raises two significant questions for the field: to what extent have previous multivoxel discriminations in the literature been driven by RT differences, and by what methods should future studies take RT and other confounds into account? We build on the work of Todd et al. and compare two different approaches to remove the effect of RT in MVPA. We show that in our empirical data, in contrast to that of Todd et al., the effect of RT on rule decoding is negligible, and results were not affected by the specific details of RT modelling. We discuss the meaning of and sensitivity for confounds in traditional and multivoxel approaches to fMRI analysis. We observe that the increased sensitivity of MVPA comes at a price of reduced specificity, meaning that these methods in particular call for careful consideration of what differs between our conditions of interest. We conclude that the additional complexity of the experimental design, analysis and interpretation needed for MVPA is still not a reason to favour a less sensitive approach. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effects of categorization method, regression type, and variable distribution on the inflation of Type-I error rate when categorizing a confounding variable.

PubMed

Barnwell-Ménard, Jean-Louis; Li, Qing; Cohen, Alan A

2015-03-15

The loss of signal associated with categorizing a continuous variable is well known, and previous studies have demonstrated that this can lead to an inflation of Type-I error when the categorized variable is a confounder in a regression analysis estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome. However, it is not known how the Type-I error may vary under different circumstances, including logistic versus linear regression, different distributions of the confounder, and different categorization methods. Here, we analytically quantified the effect of categorization and then performed a series of 9600 Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the Type-I error inflation associated with categorization of a confounder under different regression scenarios. We show that Type-I error is unacceptably high (>10% in most scenarios and often 100%). The only exception was when the variable categorized was a continuous mixture proxy for a genuinely dichotomous latent variable, where both the continuous proxy and the categorized variable are error-ridden proxies for the dichotomous latent variable. As expected, error inflation was also higher with larger sample size, fewer categories, and stronger associations between the confounder and the exposure or outcome. We provide online tools that can help researchers estimate the potential error inflation and understand how serious a problem this is. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Comparison of methods for the analysis of relatively simple mediation models.

PubMed

Rijnhart, Judith J M; Twisk, Jos W R; Chinapaw, Mai J M; de Boer, Michiel R; Heymans, Martijn W

2017-09-01

Statistical mediation analysis is an often used method in trials, to unravel the pathways underlying the effect of an intervention on a particular outcome variable. Throughout the years, several methods have been proposed, such as ordinary least square (OLS) regression, structural equation modeling (SEM), and the potential outcomes framework. Most applied researchers do not know that these methods are mathematically equivalent when applied to mediation models with a continuous mediator and outcome variable. Therefore, the aim of this paper was to demonstrate the similarities between OLS regression, SEM, and the potential outcomes framework in three mediation models: 1) a crude model, 2) a confounder-adjusted model, and 3) a model with an interaction term for exposure-mediator interaction. Secondary data analysis of a randomized controlled trial that included 546 schoolchildren. In our data example, the mediator and outcome variable were both continuous. We compared the estimates of the total, direct and indirect effects, proportion mediated, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the indirect effect across OLS regression, SEM, and the potential outcomes framework. OLS regression, SEM, and the potential outcomes framework yielded the same effect estimates in the crude mediation model, the confounder-adjusted mediation model, and the mediation model with an interaction term for exposure-mediator interaction. Since OLS regression, SEM, and the potential outcomes framework yield the same results in three mediation models with a continuous mediator and outcome variable, researchers can continue using the method that is most convenient to them.

Diagnostics for Confounding of Time-varying and Other Joint Exposures.

PubMed

Jackson, John W

2016-11-01

The effects of joint exposures (or exposure regimes) include those of adhering to assigned treatment versus placebo in a randomized controlled trial, duration of exposure in a cohort study, interactions between exposures, and direct effects of exposure, among others. Unlike the setting of a single point exposure (e.g., propensity score matching), there are few tools to describe confounding for joint exposures or how well a method resolves it. Investigators need tools that describe confounding in ways that are conceptually grounded and intuitive for those who read, review, and use applied research to guide policy. We revisit the implications of exchangeability conditions that hold in sequentially randomized trials, and the bias structure that motivates the use of g-methods, such as marginal structural models. From these, we develop covariate balance diagnostics for joint exposures that can (1) describe time-varying confounding, (2) assess whether covariates are predicted by prior exposures given their past, the indication for g-methods, and (3) describe residual confounding after inverse probability weighting. For each diagnostic, we present time-specific metrics that encompass a wide class of joint exposures, including regimes of multivariate time-varying exposures in censored data, with multivariate point exposures as a special case. We outline how to estimate these directly or with regression and how to average them over person-time. Using a simulated example, we show how these metrics can be presented graphically. This conceptually grounded framework can potentially aid the transparent design, analysis, and reporting of studies that examine joint exposures. We provide easy-to-use tools to implement it.

Can We Train Machine Learning Methods to Outperform the High-dimensional Propensity Score Algorithm?

PubMed

Karim, Mohammad Ehsanul; Pang, Menglan; Platt, Robert W

2018-03-01

The use of retrospective health care claims datasets is frequently criticized for the lack of complete information on potential confounders. Utilizing patient's health status-related information from claims datasets as surrogates or proxies for mismeasured and unobserved confounders, the high-dimensional propensity score algorithm enables us to reduce bias. Using a previously published cohort study of postmyocardial infarction statin use (1998-2012), we compare the performance of the algorithm with a number of popular machine learning approaches for confounder selection in high-dimensional covariate spaces: random forest, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, and elastic net. Our results suggest that, when the data analysis is done with epidemiologic principles in mind, machine learning methods perform as well as the high-dimensional propensity score algorithm. Using a plasmode framework that mimicked the empirical data, we also showed that a hybrid of machine learning and high-dimensional propensity score algorithms generally perform slightly better than both in terms of mean squared error, when a bias-based analysis is used.

Robustness of meta-analyses in finding gene × environment interactions

PubMed Central

Shi, Gang; Nehorai, Arye

2017-01-01

Meta-analyses that synthesize statistical evidence across studies have become important analytical tools for genetic studies. Inspired by the success of genome-wide association studies of the genetic main effect, researchers are searching for gene × environment interactions. Confounders are routinely included in the genome-wide gene × environment interaction analysis as covariates; however, this does not control for any confounding effects on the results if covariate × environment interactions are present. We carried out simulation studies to evaluate the robustness to the covariate × environment confounder for meta-regression and joint meta-analysis, which are two commonly used meta-analysis methods for testing the gene × environment interaction or the genetic main effect and interaction jointly. Here we show that meta-regression is robust to the covariate × environment confounder while joint meta-analysis is subject to the confounding effect with inflated type I error rates. Given vast sample sizes employed in genome-wide gene × environment interaction studies, non-significant covariate × environment interactions at the study level could substantially elevate the type I error rate at the consortium level. When covariate × environment confounders are present, type I errors can be controlled in joint meta-analysis by including the covariate × environment terms in the analysis at the study level. Alternatively, meta-regression can be applied, which is robust to potential covariate × environment confounders. PMID:28362796

Social desirability bias in self-reported dietary, physical activity and weight concerns measures in 8- to 10-year-old African-American girls: results from the Girls Health Enrichment Multisite Studies (GEMS).

PubMed

Klesges, Lisa M; Baranowski, Tom; Beech, Bettina; Cullen, Karen; Murray, David M; Rochon, Jim; Pratt, Charlotte

2004-05-01

Social desirability (SocD) may bias children's self-reported health behaviors and attitudes and confound relationships with health outcome measures. Ninety-five, 8- to 10-year-old African-American girls completed dietary recalls, a physical activity checklist, psychosocial questionnaires related to diet, and physical activity; and 3 days of physical activity monitoring. Potential SocD construct bias was investigated by comparing designated criterion measures of physical activity, beverage intake, and body mass index (BMI) with respective self-reported measures related to activity, beverage preferences, and body image and weight concerns in cross-sectional regression models. Potential confounding by SocD of associations between self-reported behaviors with BMI was assessed using change-in-coefficient regression analyses. Controlling for age and BMI, overestimates of self-reported activity (P = 0.02), underestimates of sweetened beverage preferences (P = 0.02), and lower ratings of weight concerns and dieting behaviors (P's < 0.05) were related to SocD. Confounding by SocD of associations between self-reported physical activity and energy intake with BMI was found. In 8- to 10-year-old African-American girls, SocD was found to bias self-reports of diet and physical activity and confound associations between BMI and self-reported physical activity and energy intake. Methods to measure and control SocD bias are needed to reduce potential distortion of relationships between diet and physical activity and health outcomes.

Resting-state FMRI confounds and cleanup

PubMed Central

Murphy, Kevin; Birn, Rasmus M.; Bandettini, Peter A.

2013-01-01

The goal of resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) is to investigate the brain’s functional connections by using the temporal similarity between blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) signals in different regions of the brain “at rest” as an indicator of synchronous neural activity. Since this measure relies on the temporal correlation of FMRI signal changes between different parts of the brain, any non-neural activity-related process that affects the signals will influence the measure of functional connectivity, yielding spurious results. To understand the sources of these resting-state FMRI confounds, this article describes the origins of the BOLD signal in terms of MR physics and cerebral physiology. Potential confounds arising from motion, cardiac and respiratory cycles, arterial CO2 concentration, blood pressure/cerebral autoregulation, and vasomotion are discussed. Two classes of techniques to remove confounds from resting-state BOLD time series are reviewed: 1) those utilising external recordings of physiology and 2) data-based cleanup methods that only use the resting-state FMRI data itself. Further methods that remove noise from functional connectivity measures at a group level are also discussed. For successful interpretation of resting-state FMRI comparisons and results, noise cleanup is an often over-looked but essential step in the analysis pipeline. PMID:23571418

A comparison of propensity score-based approaches to health service evaluation: a case study of a preoperative physician-led clinic for high-risk surgical patients.

PubMed

Pham, Clarabelle T; Gibb, Catherine L; Mittinty, Murthy N; Fitridge, Robert A; Marshall, Villis R; Karnon, Jonathan D

2016-10-01

A physician-led clinic for the preoperative optimization and management of high-risk surgical patients was implemented in a South Australian public hospital in 2008. This study aimed to estimate the costs and effects of the clinic using a mixed retrospective and prospective observational study design. Alternative propensity score estimation methods were applied to retrospective routinely collected administrative and clinical data, using weighted and matched cohorts. Supplementary survey-based prospective data were collected to inform the analysis of the retrospective data and reduce potential unmeasured confounding. Using weighted cohorts, clinic patients had a significantly longer mean length of stay and higher mean cost. With the matched cohorts, reducing the calliper width resulted in a shorter mean length of stay in the clinic group, but the costs remained significantly higher. The prospective data indicated potential unmeasured confounding in all analyses other than in the most tightly matched cohorts. The application of alternative propensity-based approaches to a large sample of retrospective data, supplemented with a smaller sample of prospective data, informed a pragmatic approach to reducing potential observed and unmeasured confounding in an evaluation of a physician-led preoperative clinic. The need to generate tightly matched cohorts to reduce the potential for unmeasured confounding indicates that significant uncertainty remains around the effects of the clinic. This study illustrates the value of mixed retrospective and prospective observational study designs but also underlines the need to prospectively plan for the evaluation of costs and effects alongside the implementation of significant service innovations. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Appropriate and inappropriate methods for investigating the "gateway" hypothesis, with a review of the evidence linking prior snus use to later cigarette smoking.

PubMed

Lee, Peter N

2015-03-20

The "gateway hypothesis" usually refers to the possibility that the taking up of habit A, which is considered harmless (or less harmful), may lead to the subsequent taking up of another habit, B, which is considered harmful (or more harmful). Possible approaches to designing and analysing studies to test the hypothesis are discussed. Evidence relating to the use of snus (A) as a gateway for smoking (B) is then evaluated in detail. The importance of having appropriate data available on the sequence of use of A and B and on other potential confounding factors that may lead to the taking up of B is emphasised. Where randomised trials are impractical, the preferred designs include the prospective cohort study in which ever use of A and of B is recorded at regular intervals, and the cross-sectional survey in which time of starting to use A and B is recorded. Both approaches allow time-stratified analytical methods to be used, in which, in each time period, risk of initiating B among never users of B at the start of the interval is compared according to prior use of A. Adjustment in analysis for the potential confounding factors is essential. Of 11 studies of possible relevance conducted in Sweden, Finland or Norway, only one seriously addresses potential confounding by those other factors involved in the initiation of smoking. Furthermore, 5 of the 11 studies are of a design that does not allow proper testing of the gateway hypothesis for various reasons, and the analysis is unsatisfactory, sometimes seriously, in all the remaining six. While better analyses could be attempted for some of the six studies identified as having appropriate design, the issues of confounding remain, and more studies are clearly needed. To obtain a rapid answer, a properly designed cross-sectional survey is recommended.

Statistical primer: propensity score matching and its alternatives.

PubMed

Benedetto, Umberto; Head, Stuart J; Angelini, Gianni D; Blackstone, Eugene H

2018-06-01

Propensity score (PS) methods offer certain advantages over more traditional regression methods to control for confounding by indication in observational studies. Although multivariable regression models adjust for confounders by modelling the relationship between covariates and outcome, the PS methods estimate the treatment effect by modelling the relationship between confounders and treatment assignment. Therefore, methods based on the PS are not limited by the number of events, and their use may be warranted when the number of confounders is large, or the number of outcomes is small. The PS is the probability for a subject to receive a treatment conditional on a set of baseline characteristics (confounders). The PS is commonly estimated using logistic regression, and it is used to match patients with similar distribution of confounders so that difference in outcomes gives unbiased estimate of treatment effect. This review summarizes basic concepts of the PS matching and provides guidance in implementing matching and other methods based on the PS, such as stratification, weighting and covariate adjustment.

A New Method for Partial Correction of Residual Confounding in Time-Series and Other Observational Studies.

PubMed

Flanders, W Dana; Strickland, Matthew J; Klein, Mitchel

2017-05-15

Methods exist to detect residual confounding in epidemiologic studies. One requires a negative control exposure with 2 key properties: 1) conditional independence of the negative control and the outcome (given modeled variables) absent confounding and other model misspecification, and 2) associations of the negative control with uncontrolled confounders and the outcome. We present a new method to partially correct for residual confounding: When confounding is present and our assumptions hold, we argue that estimators from models that include a negative control exposure with these 2 properties tend to be less biased than those from models without it. Using regression theory, we provide theoretical arguments that support our claims. In simulations, we empirically evaluated the approach using a time-series study of ozone effects on asthma emergency department visits. In simulations, effect estimators from models that included the negative control exposure (ozone concentrations 1 day after the emergency department visit) had slightly or modestly less residual confounding than those from models without it. Theory and simulations show that including the negative control can reduce residual confounding, if our assumptions hold. Our method differs from available methods because it uses a regression approach involving an exposure-based indicator rather than a negative control outcome to partially correct for confounding. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Factors influencing tests of auditory processing: a perspective on current issues and relevant concerns.

PubMed

Cacace, Anthony T; McFarland, Dennis J

2013-01-01

Tests of auditory perception, such as those used in the assessment of central auditory processing disorders ([C]APDs), represent a domain in audiological assessment where measurement of this theoretical construct is often confounded by nonauditory abilities due to methodological shortcomings. These confounds include the effects of cognitive variables such as memory and attention and suboptimal testing paradigms, including the use of verbal reproduction as a form of response selection. We argue that these factors need to be controlled more carefully and/or modified so that their impact on tests of auditory and visual perception is only minimal. To advocate for a stronger theoretical framework than currently exists and to suggest better methodological strategies to improve assessment of auditory processing disorders (APDs). Emphasis is placed on adaptive forced-choice psychophysical methods and the use of matched tasks in multiple sensory modalities to achieve these goals. Together, this approach has potential to improve the construct validity of the diagnosis, enhance and develop theory, and evolve into a preferred method of testing. Examination of methods commonly used in studies of APDs. Where possible, currently used methodology is compared to contemporary psychophysical methods that emphasize computer-controlled forced-choice paradigms. In many cases, the procedures used in studies of APD introduce confounding factors that could be minimized if computer-controlled forced-choice psychophysical methods were utilized. Ambiguities of interpretation, indeterminate diagnoses, and unwanted confounds can be avoided by minimizing memory and attentional demands on the input end and precluding the use of response-selection strategies that use complex motor processes on the output end. Advocated are the use of computer-controlled forced-choice psychophysical paradigms in combination with matched tasks in multiple sensory modalities to enhance the prospect of obtaining a valid diagnosis. American Academy of Audiology.

An assessment of the possible extent of confounding in epidemiological studies of lung cancer risk among roofers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mundt, D.J.; van Wijngaarden, E.; Mundt, K.A.

2007-07-01

We evaluated the likelihood and extent to which the observed increased risk of lung cancer may be due to confounding (a mixing of effects of multiple exposures) by co-exposure to other potential carcinogens present in roofing or to lifestyle variables. We conducted a review of the epidemiological and industrial hygiene literature of asphalt-exposed workers. Peer-reviewed epidemiological studies of asphalt fumes, related occupational exposures, and confounding factors were identified from MEDLINE (1966 early 2004). Industrial hygiene studies of asphalt workers were identified through MEDLINE, publicly available government documents, and asphalt industry documents. Using well established statistical methods, we quantified the extentmore » to which lung cancer relative risk estimates among roofers reflect confounding from other exposures, using different prevalence and risk scenarios. The relative risk of lung cancer varied from 1.2 to 5.0 in 13 epidemiological studies of roofers; most studies reported a relative risk between 1.2 and 1.4. Smoking, asbestos and coal tar were the most likely confounders, but the prevalence of these factors varied over time. The results of the study indicate that much of the observed risk reported in epidemiological studies of cancer among roofers is well within the range of what may have resulted from confounding by reasonable and expected levels of smoking, asbestos or coal tar. This may be particularly true for those studies that did not adjust for these confounders and where the exposure was defined as employment in the roofing industry. In addition to poorly defined asphalt exposure, uncontrolled confounding cannot reliably be ruled out in studies of lung cancer among asphalt-exposed roofers. Therefore, it is not possible to conclude whether roofers are at increased risk of lung cancer due to asphalt exposure.« less

Epidemiologic methods in clinical trials.

PubMed

Rothman, K J

1977-04-01

Epidemiologic methods developed to control confounding in non-experimental studies are equally applicable for experiments. In experiments, most confounding is usually controlled by random allocation of subjects to treatment groups, but randomization does not preclude confounding except for extremely large studies, the degree of confounding expected being inversely related to the size of the treatment groups. In experiments, as in non-experimental studies, the extent of confounding for each risk indicator should be assessed, and if sufficiently large, controlled. Confounding is properly assessed by comparing the unconfounded effect estimate to the crude effect estimate; a common error is to assess confounding by statistical tests of significance. Assessment of confounding involves its control as a prerequisite. Control is most readily and cogently achieved by stratification of the data, though with many factors to control simultaneously, multivariate analysis or a combination of multivariate analysis and stratification might be necessary.

Selecting Evaluation Comparison Groups: A Cluster Analytic Approach.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Todd Mclin; McLean, James E.

A persistent problem in the evaluation of field-based projects is the lack of no-treatment comparison groups. Frequently, potential comparison groups are confounded by socioeconomic, racial, or other factors. Among the possible methods for dealing with this problem are various matching procedures, but they are cumbersome to use with multiple…

Examining the Intergenerational Transmission of Violence in a New Zealand Birth Cohort

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fergusson, David M.; Boden, Joseph M.; Horwood, L. John

2006-01-01

Objective: This paper examines whether exposure to interparental violence in childhood predicts subsequent involvement in interpartner violence and violent crime after controlling for potentially confounding factors. Method: The investigation analyses data from the Christchurch Health and Development Study, a prospective, longitudinal study of a…

Adjusting for geographic variation in observational comparative effectiveness studies: a case study of antipsychotics using state Medicaid data.

PubMed

Root, Elisabeth Dowling; Thomas, Deborah S K; Campagna, Elizabeth J; Morrato, Elaine H

2014-08-27

Area-level variation in treatment and outcomes may be a potential source of confounding bias in observational comparative effectiveness studies. This paper demonstrates how to use exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) and spatial statistical methods to investigate and control for these potential biases. The case presented compares the effectiveness of two antipsychotic treatment strategies: oral second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs) vs. long-acting paliperiodone palmitate (PP). A new-start cohort study was conducted analyzing patient-level administrative claims data (8/1/2008-4/30/2011) from Missouri Medicaid. ESDA techniques were used to examine spatial patterns of antipsychotic prescriptions and outcomes (hospitalization and emergency department (ED) visits). Likelihood of mental health-related outcomes were compared between patients starting PP (N = 295) and oral SGAs (N = 8,626) using multilevel logistic regression models adjusting for patient composition (demographic and clinical factors) and geographic region. ESDA indicated significant spatial variation in antipsychotic prescription patterns and moderate variation in hospitalization and ED visits thereby indicating possible confounding by geography. In the multilevel models for this antipsychotic case example, patient composition represented a stronger source of confounding than geographic context. Because geographic variation in health care delivery is ubiquitous, it could be a comparative effectiveness research (CER) best practice to test for possible geographic confounding in observational data. Though the magnitude of the area-level geography effects were small in this case, they were still statistically significant and should therefore be examined as part of this observational CER study. More research is needed to better estimate the range of confounding due to geography across different types of observational comparative effectiveness studies and healthcare utilization outcomes.

Bayesian propensity scores for high-dimensional causal inference: A comparison of drug-eluting to bare-metal coronary stents.

PubMed

Spertus, Jacob V; Normand, Sharon-Lise T

2018-04-23

High-dimensional data provide many potential confounders that may bolster the plausibility of the ignorability assumption in causal inference problems. Propensity score methods are powerful causal inference tools, which are popular in health care research and are particularly useful for high-dimensional data. Recent interest has surrounded a Bayesian treatment of propensity scores in order to flexibly model the treatment assignment mechanism and summarize posterior quantities while incorporating variance from the treatment model. We discuss methods for Bayesian propensity score analysis of binary treatments, focusing on modern methods for high-dimensional Bayesian regression and the propagation of uncertainty. We introduce a novel and simple estimator for the average treatment effect that capitalizes on conjugacy of the beta and binomial distributions. Through simulations, we show the utility of horseshoe priors and Bayesian additive regression trees paired with our new estimator, while demonstrating the importance of including variance from the treatment regression model. An application to cardiac stent data with almost 500 confounders and 9000 patients illustrates approaches and facilitates comparison with existing alternatives. As measured by a falsifiability endpoint, we improved confounder adjustment compared with past observational research of the same problem. © 2018 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Confounding by dietary pattern of the inverse association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes risk

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Epidemiology of dietary components and disease risk limits interpretability due to potential residual confounding by correlated dietary components. Dietary pattern analyses by factor analysis or partial least squares may overcome the limitation. To examine confounding by dietary pattern as well as ...

Confounding by dietary patterns of the inverse association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes risk

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Epidemiology of dietary components and disease risk limits interpretability due to potential residual confounding by correlated dietary components. Dietary pattern analyses by factor analysis or partial least squares may overcome this limitation. To examine confounding by dietary pattern as well as ...

Limitations of a metabolic network-based reverse ecology method for inferring host-pathogen interactions.

PubMed

Takemoto, Kazuhiro; Aie, Kazuki

2017-05-25

Host-pathogen interactions are important in a wide range of research fields. Given the importance of metabolic crosstalk between hosts and pathogens, a metabolic network-based reverse ecology method was proposed to infer these interactions. However, the validity of this method remains unclear because of the various explanations presented and the influence of potentially confounding factors that have thus far been neglected. We re-evaluated the importance of the reverse ecology method for evaluating host-pathogen interactions while statistically controlling for confounding effects using oxygen requirement, genome, metabolic network, and phylogeny data. Our data analyses showed that host-pathogen interactions were more strongly influenced by genome size, primary network parameters (e.g., number of edges), oxygen requirement, and phylogeny than the reserve ecology-based measures. These results indicate the limitations of the reverse ecology method; however, they do not discount the importance of adopting reverse ecology approaches altogether. Rather, we highlight the need for developing more suitable methods for inferring host-pathogen interactions and conducting more careful examinations of the relationships between metabolic networks and host-pathogen interactions.

The Relationship between Frequency of Family Dinner and Adolescent Problem Behaviors after Adjusting for Other Family Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sen, Bisakha

2010-01-01

Objective: To examine the association between frequency of family dinners (FFD) and selected problem behaviors for adolescents after adjusting for family connectedness, parental awareness, other family activities, and other potentially confounding factors. Methods: Data are drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997. The primary…

The impact of confounder selection in propensity scores when applied to prospective cohort studies in pregnancy.

PubMed

Xu, Ronghui; Hou, Jue; Chambers, Christina D

2018-06-01

Our work was motivated by small cohort studies on the risk of birth defects in infants born to pregnant women exposed to medications. We controlled for confounding using propensity scores (PS). The extremely rare events setting renders the matching or stratification infeasible. In addition, the PS itself may be formed via different approaches to select confounders from a relatively long list of potential confounders. We carried out simulation experiments to compare different combinations of approaches: IPW or regression adjustment, with 1) including all potential confounders without selection, 2) selection based on univariate association between the candidate variable and the outcome, 3) selection based on change in effects (CIE). The simulation showed that IPW without selection leads to extremely large variances in the estimated odds ratio, which help to explain the empirical data analysis results that we had observed. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation sampling can reduce bias in health care database studies: an illustration using influenza vaccination effectiveness.

PubMed

Nelson, Jennifer Clark; Marsh, Tracey; Lumley, Thomas; Larson, Eric B; Jackson, Lisa A; Jackson, Michael L

2013-08-01

Estimates of treatment effectiveness in epidemiologic studies using large observational health care databases may be biased owing to inaccurate or incomplete information on important confounders. Study methods that collect and incorporate more comprehensive confounder data on a validation cohort may reduce confounding bias. We applied two such methods, namely imputation and reweighting, to Group Health administrative data (full sample) supplemented by more detailed confounder data from the Adult Changes in Thought study (validation sample). We used influenza vaccination effectiveness (with an unexposed comparator group) as an example and evaluated each method's ability to reduce bias using the control time period before influenza circulation. Both methods reduced, but did not completely eliminate, the bias compared with traditional effectiveness estimates that do not use the validation sample confounders. Although these results support the use of validation sampling methods to improve the accuracy of comparative effectiveness findings from health care database studies, they also illustrate that the success of such methods depends on many factors, including the ability to measure important confounders in a representative and large enough validation sample, the comparability of the full sample and validation sample, and the accuracy with which the data can be imputed or reweighted using the additional validation sample information. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Spatial variation in mortality risk for haematological malignancies near a petrochemical refinery: a population-based case-control study

PubMed Central

Di Salvo, Francesca; Meneghini, Elisabetta; Vieira, Veronica; Baili, Paolo; Mariottini, Mauro; Baldini, Marco; Micheli, Andrea; Sant, Milena

2015-01-01

Introduction The study investigated the geographic variation of mortality risk for hematological malignancies (HMs) in order to identify potential high-risk areas near an Italian petrochemical refinery. Material and methods A population-based case-control study was conducted and residential histories for 171 cases and 338 sex- and age-matched controls were collected. Confounding factors were obtained from interviews with consenting relatives for 109 HM deaths and 267 controls. To produce risk mortality maps, two different approaches were applied. We mapped (1) adptive kernel density relative risk estimation (KDE) for case-control studies which estimates a spatial relative risk function using the ratio between cases and controls’ densities, and (2) estimated odds ratios for case-control study data using generalized additive models (GAMs) to smooth the effect of location, a proxy for exposure, while adjusting for confounding variables. Results No high-risk areas for HM mortality were identified among all subjects (men and women combined), by applying both approaches. Using the adaptive KDE approach, we found a significant increase in death risk only among women in a large area 2–6 km southeast of the refinery and the application of GAMs also identified a similarly-located significant high-risk area among women only (global p-value<0.025). Potential confounding risk factors we considered in the GAM did not alter the results. Conclusion Both approaches identified a high-risk area close to the refinery among women only. Those spatial methods are useful tools for public policy management to determine priority areas for intervention. Our findings suggest several directions for further research in order to identify other potential environmental exposures that may be assessed in forthcoming studies based on detailed exposure modeling. PMID:26073202

A comparison of estimators from self-controlled case series, case-crossover design, and sequence symmetry analysis for pharmacoepidemiological studies.

PubMed

Takeuchi, Yoshinori; Shinozaki, Tomohiro; Matsuyama, Yutaka

2018-01-08

Despite the frequent use of self-controlled methods in pharmacoepidemiological studies, the factors that may bias the estimates from these methods have not been adequately compared in real-world settings. Here, we comparatively examined the impact of a time-varying confounder and its interactions with time-invariant confounders, time trends in exposures and events, restrictions, and misspecification of risk period durations on the estimators from three self-controlled methods. This study analyzed self-controlled case series (SCCS), case-crossover (CCO) design, and sequence symmetry analysis (SSA) using simulated and actual electronic medical records datasets. We evaluated the performance of the three self-controlled methods in simulated cohorts for the following scenarios: 1) time-invariant confounding with interactions between the confounders, 2) time-invariant and time-varying confounding without interactions, 3) time-invariant and time-varying confounding with interactions among the confounders, 4) time trends in exposures and events, 5) restricted follow-up time based on event occurrence, and 6) patient restriction based on event history. The sensitivity of the estimators to misspecified risk period durations was also evaluated. As a case study, we applied these methods to evaluate the risk of macrolides on liver injury using electronic medical records. In the simulation analysis, time-varying confounding produced bias in the SCCS and CCO design estimates, which aggravated in the presence of interactions between the time-invariant and time-varying confounders. The SCCS estimates were biased by time trends in both exposures and events. Erroneously short risk periods introduced bias to the CCO design estimate, whereas erroneously long risk periods introduced bias to the estimates of all three methods. Restricting the follow-up time led to severe bias in the SSA estimates. The SCCS estimates were sensitive to patient restriction. The case study showed that although macrolide use was significantly associated with increased liver injury occurrence in all methods, the value of the estimates varied. The estimations of the three self-controlled methods depended on various underlying assumptions, and the violation of these assumptions may cause non-negligible bias in the resulting estimates. Pharmacoepidemiologists should select the appropriate self-controlled method based on how well the relevant key assumptions are satisfied with respect to the available data.

Validation sampling can reduce bias in healthcare database studies: an illustration using influenza vaccination effectiveness

PubMed Central

Nelson, Jennifer C.; Marsh, Tracey; Lumley, Thomas; Larson, Eric B.; Jackson, Lisa A.; Jackson, Michael

2014-01-01

Objective Estimates of treatment effectiveness in epidemiologic studies using large observational health care databases may be biased due to inaccurate or incomplete information on important confounders. Study methods that collect and incorporate more comprehensive confounder data on a validation cohort may reduce confounding bias. Study Design and Setting We applied two such methods, imputation and reweighting, to Group Health administrative data (full sample) supplemented by more detailed confounder data from the Adult Changes in Thought study (validation sample). We used influenza vaccination effectiveness (with an unexposed comparator group) as an example and evaluated each method’s ability to reduce bias using the control time period prior to influenza circulation. Results Both methods reduced, but did not completely eliminate, the bias compared with traditional effectiveness estimates that do not utilize the validation sample confounders. Conclusion Although these results support the use of validation sampling methods to improve the accuracy of comparative effectiveness findings from healthcare database studies, they also illustrate that the success of such methods depends on many factors, including the ability to measure important confounders in a representative and large enough validation sample, the comparability of the full sample and validation sample, and the accuracy with which data can be imputed or reweighted using the additional validation sample information. PMID:23849144

Sensitivity analysis for direct and indirect effects in the presence of exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounders

PubMed Central

Chiba, Yasutaka

2014-01-01

Questions of mediation are often of interest in reasoning about mechanisms, and methods have been developed to address these questions. However, these methods make strong assumptions about the absence of confounding. Even if exposure is randomized, there may be mediator-outcome confounding variables. Inference about direct and indirect effects is particularly challenging if these mediator-outcome confounders are affected by the exposure because in this case these effects are not identified irrespective of whether data is available on these exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounders. In this paper, we provide a sensitivity analysis technique for natural direct and indirect effects that is applicable even if there are mediator-outcome confounders affected by the exposure. We give techniques for both the difference and risk ratio scales and compare the technique to other possible approaches. PMID:25580387

A flexible, interpretable framework for assessing sensitivity to unmeasured confounding.

PubMed

Dorie, Vincent; Harada, Masataka; Carnegie, Nicole Bohme; Hill, Jennifer

2016-09-10

When estimating causal effects, unmeasured confounding and model misspecification are both potential sources of bias. We propose a method to simultaneously address both issues in the form of a semi-parametric sensitivity analysis. In particular, our approach incorporates Bayesian Additive Regression Trees into a two-parameter sensitivity analysis strategy that assesses sensitivity of posterior distributions of treatment effects to choices of sensitivity parameters. This results in an easily interpretable framework for testing for the impact of an unmeasured confounder that also limits the number of modeling assumptions. We evaluate our approach in a large-scale simulation setting and with high blood pressure data taken from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The model is implemented as open-source software, integrated into the treatSens package for the R statistical programming language. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. © 2016 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Using instrumental variables to estimate a Cox's proportional hazards regression subject to additive confounding

PubMed Central

Tosteson, Tor D.; Morden, Nancy E.; Stukel, Therese A.; O'Malley, A. James

2014-01-01

The estimation of treatment effects is one of the primary goals of statistics in medicine. Estimation based on observational studies is subject to confounding. Statistical methods for controlling bias due to confounding include regression adjustment, propensity scores and inverse probability weighted estimators. These methods require that all confounders are recorded in the data. The method of instrumental variables (IVs) can eliminate bias in observational studies even in the absence of information on confounders. We propose a method for integrating IVs within the framework of Cox's proportional hazards model and demonstrate the conditions under which it recovers the causal effect of treatment. The methodology is based on the approximate orthogonality of an instrument with unobserved confounders among those at risk. We derive an estimator as the solution to an estimating equation that resembles the score equation of the partial likelihood in much the same way as the traditional IV estimator resembles the normal equations. To justify this IV estimator for a Cox model we perform simulations to evaluate its operating characteristics. Finally, we apply the estimator to an observational study of the effect of coronary catheterization on survival. PMID:25506259

Using instrumental variables to estimate a Cox's proportional hazards regression subject to additive confounding.

PubMed

MacKenzie, Todd A; Tosteson, Tor D; Morden, Nancy E; Stukel, Therese A; O'Malley, A James

2014-06-01

The estimation of treatment effects is one of the primary goals of statistics in medicine. Estimation based on observational studies is subject to confounding. Statistical methods for controlling bias due to confounding include regression adjustment, propensity scores and inverse probability weighted estimators. These methods require that all confounders are recorded in the data. The method of instrumental variables (IVs) can eliminate bias in observational studies even in the absence of information on confounders. We propose a method for integrating IVs within the framework of Cox's proportional hazards model and demonstrate the conditions under which it recovers the causal effect of treatment. The methodology is based on the approximate orthogonality of an instrument with unobserved confounders among those at risk. We derive an estimator as the solution to an estimating equation that resembles the score equation of the partial likelihood in much the same way as the traditional IV estimator resembles the normal equations. To justify this IV estimator for a Cox model we perform simulations to evaluate its operating characteristics. Finally, we apply the estimator to an observational study of the effect of coronary catheterization on survival.

An overview of confounding. Part 1: the concept and how to address it.

PubMed

Howards, Penelope P

2018-04-01

Confounding is an important source of bias, but it is often misunderstood. We consider how confounding occurs and how to address confounding using examples. Study results are confounded when the effect of the exposure on the outcome, mixes with the effects of other risk and protective factors for the outcome. This problem arises when these factors are present to different degrees among the exposed and unexposed study participants, but not all differences between the groups result in confounding. Thinking about an ideal study where all of the population of interest is exposed in one universe and is unexposed in a parallel universe helps to distinguish confounders from other differences. In an actual study, an observed unexposed population is chosen to stand in for the unobserved parallel universe. Differences between this substitute population and the parallel universe result in confounding. Confounding by identified factors can be addressed analytically and through study design, but only randomization has the potential to address confounding by unmeasured factors. Nevertheless, a given randomized study may still be confounded. Confounded study results can lead to incorrect conclusions about the effect of the exposure of interest on the outcome. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Duration perception of emotional stimuli: Using evaluative conditioning to avoid sensory confounds.

PubMed

Kliegl, Katrin M; Watrin, Luc; Huckauf, Anke

2015-01-01

It has been found that emotional pictures are estimated to last longer than neutral ones. However, emotional and neutral stimuli often differ in their physical characteristics, too. Since this might also affect time perception, we present a method disentangling a possible confounding regarding the processing of physically different stimulus material. In the evaluative condition paradigm, participants, at first, learnt the association of neutral images with a certain Landolt ring and of emotional images with another Landolt ring with a different gap position. The conditioned Landolt rings were subsequently used in a temporal bisection task. In two experiments, the results revealed a temporal overestimation of Landolt rings conditioned with emotional pictures compared to neutral pictures showing that the temporal overestimation of emotional stimuli cannot be attributed to perceptual differences between neutral and emotional stimuli. The method provides the potential for investigating emotional effects on various perceptual processes.

Using Ensemble-Based Methods for Directly Estimating Causal Effects: An Investigation of Tree-Based G-Computation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Austin, Peter C.

2012-01-01

Researchers are increasingly using observational or nonrandomized data to estimate causal treatment effects. Essential to the production of high-quality evidence is the ability to reduce or minimize the confounding that frequently occurs in observational studies. When using the potential outcome framework to define causal treatment effects, one…

Dorsal Stream Deficits Suggest Hidden Dyslexia among Deaf Poor Readers: Correlated Evidence from Reduced Perceptual Speed and Elevated Coherent Motion Detection Thresholds

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samar, V.J.; Parasnis, I.

2005-01-01

Prelingual deafness and developmental dyslexia have confounding developmental effects on reading acquisition. Therefore, standard reading assessment methods for diagnosing dyslexia in hearing people are ineffective for use with deaf people. Recently, Samar, Parasnis, and Berent (2002) reported visual evoked potential evidence that deaf poor…

Assessing Sensitivity to Unmeasured Confounding Using a Simulated Potential Confounder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carnegie, Nicole Bohme; Harada, Masataka; Hill, Jennifer L.

2016-01-01

A major obstacle to developing evidenced-based policy is the difficulty of implementing randomized experiments to answer all causal questions of interest. When using a nonexperimental study, it is critical to assess how much the results could be affected by unmeasured confounding. We present a set of graphical and numeric tools to explore the…

A method for sensitivity analysis to assess the effects of measurement error in multiple exposure variables using external validation data.

PubMed

Agogo, George O; van der Voet, Hilko; van 't Veer, Pieter; Ferrari, Pietro; Muller, David C; Sánchez-Cantalejo, Emilio; Bamia, Christina; Braaten, Tonje; Knüppel, Sven; Johansson, Ingegerd; van Eeuwijk, Fred A; Boshuizen, Hendriek C

2016-10-13

Measurement error in self-reported dietary intakes is known to bias the association between dietary intake and a health outcome of interest such as risk of a disease. The association can be distorted further by mismeasured confounders, leading to invalid results and conclusions. It is, however, difficult to adjust for the bias in the association when there is no internal validation data. We proposed a method to adjust for the bias in the diet-disease association (hereafter, association), due to measurement error in dietary intake and a mismeasured confounder, when there is no internal validation data. The method combines prior information on the validity of the self-report instrument with the observed data to adjust for the bias in the association. We compared the proposed method with the method that ignores the confounder effect, and with the method that ignores measurement errors completely. We assessed the sensitivity of the estimates to various magnitudes of measurement error, error correlations and uncertainty in the literature-reported validation data. We applied the methods to fruits and vegetables (FV) intakes, cigarette smoking (confounder) and all-cause mortality data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. Using the proposed method resulted in about four times increase in the strength of association between FV intake and mortality. For weakly correlated errors, measurement error in the confounder minimally affected the hazard ratio estimate for FV intake. The effect was more pronounced for strong error correlations. The proposed method permits sensitivity analysis on measurement error structures and accounts for uncertainties in the reported validity coefficients. The method is useful in assessing the direction and quantifying the magnitude of bias in the association due to measurement errors in the confounders.

Examining the Error of Mis-Specifying Nonlinear Confounding Effect with Application on Accelerometer-Measured Physical Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Paul H.

2017-01-01

Purpose: Some confounders are nonlinearly associated with dependent variables, but they are often adjusted using a linear term. The purpose of this study was to examine the error of mis-specifying the nonlinear confounding effect. Methods: We carried out a simulation study to investigate the effect of adjusting for a nonlinear confounder in the…

Causal Methods for Observational Research: A Primer.

PubMed

Almasi-Hashiani, Amir; Nedjat, Saharnaz; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali

2018-04-01

The goal of many observational studies is to estimate the causal effect of an exposure on an outcome after adjustment for confounders, but there are still some serious errors in adjusting confounders in clinical journals. Standard regression modeling (e.g., ordinary logistic regression) fails to estimate the average effect of exposure in total population in the presence of interaction between exposure and covariates, and also cannot adjust for time-varying confounding appropriately. Moreover, stepwise algorithms of the selection of confounders based on P values may miss important confounders and lead to bias in effect estimates. Causal methods overcome these limitations. We illustrate three causal methods including inverse-probability-of-treatment-weighting (IPTW) and parametric g-formula, with an emphasis on a clever combination of these 2 methods: targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE) which enjoys a double-robust property against bias. © 2018 The Author(s). This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Correction of odds ratios in case-control studies for exposure misclassification with partial knowledge of the degree of agreement among experts who assessed exposures.

PubMed

Burstyn, Igor; Gustafson, Paul; Pintos, Javier; Lavoué, Jérôme; Siemiatycki, Jack

2018-02-01

Estimates of association between exposures and diseases are often distorted by error in exposure classification. When the validity of exposure assessment is known, this can be used to adjust these estimates. When exposure is assessed by experts, even if validity is not known, we sometimes have information about interrater reliability. We present a Bayesian method for translating the knowledge of interrater reliability, which is often available, into knowledge about validity, which is often needed but not directly available, and applying this to correct odds ratios (OR). The method allows for inclusion of observed potential confounders in the analysis, as is common in regression-based control for confounding. Our method uses a novel type of prior on sensitivity and specificity. The approach is illustrated with data from a case-control study of lung cancer risk and occupational exposure to diesel engine emissions, in which exposure assessment was made by detailed job history interviews with study subjects followed by expert judgement. Using interrater agreement measured by kappas (κ), we estimate sensitivity and specificity of exposure assessment and derive misclassification-corrected confounder-adjusted OR. Misclassification-corrected and confounder-adjusted OR obtained with the most defensible prior had a posterior distribution centre of 1.6 with 95% credible interval (Crl) 1.1 to 2.6. This was on average greater in magnitude than frequentist point estimate of 1.3 (95% Crl 1.0 to 1.7). The method yields insights into the degree of exposure misclassification and appears to reduce attenuation bias due to misclassification of exposure while the estimated uncertainty increased. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Evaluating Public Health Interventions: 3. The Two-Stage Design for Confounding Bias Reduction-Having Your Cake and Eating It Two.

PubMed

Spiegelman, Donna; Rivera-Rodriguez, Claudia L; Haneuse, Sebastien

2016-07-01

In public health evaluations, confounding bias in the estimate of the intervention effect will typically threaten the validity of the findings. It is a common misperception that the only way to avoid this bias is to measure detailed, high-quality data on potential confounders for every intervention participant, but this strategy for adjusting for confounding bias is often infeasible. Rather than ignoring confounding altogether, the two-phase design and analysis-in which detailed high-quality confounding data are obtained among a small subsample-can be considered. We describe the two-stage design and analysis approach, and illustrate its use in the evaluation of an intervention conducted in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, of an enhanced community health worker program to improve antenatal care uptake.

The Problem of Confounding in Studies of the Effect of Maternal Drug Use on Pregnancy Outcome

PubMed Central

Källén, Bengt

2012-01-01

In most epidemilogical studies, the problem of confounding adds to the uncertainty in conclusions drawn. This is also true for studies on the effect of maternal drug use on birth defect risks. This paper describes various types of such confounders and discusses methods to identify and adjust for them. Such confounders can be found in maternal characteristics like age, parity, smoking, use of alcohol, and body mass index, subfertility, and previous pregnancies including previous birth of a malformed child, socioeconomy, race/ethnicity, or country of birth. Confounding by concomitant maternal drug use may occur. A geographical or seasonal confounding can exist. In rare instances, infant sex and multiple birth can appear as confounders. The most difficult problem to solve is often confounding by indication. The problem of confounding is less important for congenital malformations than for many other pregnancy outcomes. PMID:22190949

An overview of confounding. Part 2: how to identify it and special situations.

PubMed

Howards, Penelope P

2018-04-01

Confounding biases study results when the effect of the exposure on the outcome mixes with the effects of other risk and protective factors for the outcome that are present differentially by exposure status. However, not all differences between the exposed and unexposed group cause confounding. Thus, sources of confounding must be identified before they can be addressed. Confounding is absent in an ideal study where all of the population of interest is exposed in one universe and is unexposed in a parallel universe. In an actual study, an observed unexposed population represents the unobserved parallel universe. Thinking about differences between this substitute population and the unexposed parallel universe helps identify sources of confounding. These differences can then be represented in a diagram that shows how risk and protective factors for the outcome are related to the exposure. Sources of confounding identified in the diagram should be addressed analytically and through study design. However, treating all factors that differ by exposure status as confounders without considering the structure of their relation to the exposure can introduce bias. For example, conditions affected by the exposure are not confounders. There are also special types of confounding, such as time-varying confounding and unfixable confounding. It is important to evaluate carefully whether factors of interest contribute to confounding because bias can be introduced both by ignoring potential confounders and by adjusting for factors that are not confounders. The resulting bias can result in misleading conclusions about the effect of the exposure of interest on the outcome. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Can statistic adjustment of OR minimize the potential confounding bias for meta-analysis of case-control study? A secondary data analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Tianyi; Nie, Xiaolu; Wu, Zehao; Zhang, Ying; Feng, Guoshuang; Cai, Siyu; Lv, Yaqi; Peng, Xiaoxia

2017-12-29

Different confounder adjustment strategies were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) in case-control study, i.e. how many confounders original studies adjusted and what the variables are. This secondary data analysis is aimed to detect whether there are potential biases caused by difference of confounding factor adjustment strategies in case-control study, and whether such bias would impact the summary effect size of meta-analysis. We included all meta-analyses that focused on the association between breast cancer and passive smoking among non-smoking women, as well as each original case-control studies included in these meta-analyses. The relative deviations (RDs) of each original study were calculated to detect how magnitude the adjustment would impact the estimation of ORs, compared with crude ORs. At the same time, a scatter diagram was sketched to describe the distribution of adjusted ORs with different number of adjusted confounders. Substantial inconsistency existed in meta-analysis of case-control studies, which would influence the precision of the summary effect size. First, mixed unadjusted and adjusted ORs were used to combine individual OR in majority of meta-analysis. Second, original studies with different adjustment strategies of confounders were combined, i.e. the number of adjusted confounders and different factors being adjusted in each original study. Third, adjustment did not make the effect size of original studies trend to constringency, which suggested that model fitting might have failed to correct the systematic error caused by confounding. The heterogeneity of confounder adjustment strategies in case-control studies may lead to further bias for summary effect size in meta-analyses, especially for weak or medium associations so that the direction of causal inference would be even reversed. Therefore, further methodological researches are needed, referring to the assessment of confounder adjustment strategies, as well as how to take this kind of bias into consideration when drawing conclusion based on summary estimation of meta-analyses.

Cannabis and Anxiety and Depression in Young Adults: A Large Prospective Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hayatbakhsh, Mohammad R.; Najman, Jake M.; Jamrozik, Konrad; Mamun, Abdullah A.; Alati, Rosa; Bor, William

2007-01-01

Objective: To examine whether age of first use or frequency of use of cannabis is associated with anxiety and depression (AD) in young adults, independent of known potential confounders, including the use of other illicit drugs. Method: A cohort of 3,239 Australian young adults was followed from birth to the age of 21 when data on AD were obtained…

Leveraging Hierarchical Population Structure in Discrete Association Studies

PubMed Central

Carlson, Jonathan; Kadie, Carl; Mallal, Simon; Heckerman, David

2007-01-01

Population structure can confound the identification of correlations in biological data. Such confounding has been recognized in multiple biological disciplines, resulting in a disparate collection of proposed solutions. We examine several methods that correct for confounding on discrete data with hierarchical population structure and identify two distinct confounding processes, which we call coevolution and conditional influence. We describe these processes in terms of generative models and show that these generative models can be used to correct for the confounding effects. Finally, we apply the models to three applications: identification of escape mutations in HIV-1 in response to specific HLA-mediated immune pressure, prediction of coevolving residues in an HIV-1 peptide, and a search for genotypes that are associated with bacterial resistance traits in Arabidopsis thaliana. We show that coevolution is a better description of confounding in some applications and conditional influence is better in others. That is, we show that no single method is best for addressing all forms of confounding. Analysis tools based on these models are available on the internet as both web based applications and downloadable source code at http://atom.research.microsoft.com/bio/phylod.aspx. PMID:17611623

Conditional Random Fields for Fast, Large-Scale Genome-Wide Association Studies

PubMed Central

Huang, Jim C.; Meek, Christopher; Kadie, Carl; Heckerman, David

2011-01-01

Understanding the role of genetic variation in human diseases remains an important problem to be solved in genomics. An important component of such variation consist of variations at single sites in DNA, or single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Typically, the problem of associating particular SNPs to phenotypes has been confounded by hidden factors such as the presence of population structure, family structure or cryptic relatedness in the sample of individuals being analyzed. Such confounding factors lead to a large number of spurious associations and missed associations. Various statistical methods have been proposed to account for such confounding factors such as linear mixed-effect models (LMMs) or methods that adjust data based on a principal components analysis (PCA), but these methods either suffer from low power or cease to be tractable for larger numbers of individuals in the sample. Here we present a statistical model for conducting genome-wide association studies (GWAS) that accounts for such confounding factors. Our method scales in runtime quadratic in the number of individuals being studied with only a modest loss in statistical power as compared to LMM-based and PCA-based methods when testing on synthetic data that was generated from a generalized LMM. Applying our method to both real and synthetic human genotype/phenotype data, we demonstrate the ability of our model to correct for confounding factors while requiring significantly less runtime relative to LMMs. We have implemented methods for fitting these models, which are available at http://www.microsoft.com/science. PMID:21765897

Using expert opinion to quantify unmeasured confounding bias parameters.

PubMed

Navadeh, Soodabeh; Mirzazadeh, Ali; McFarland, Willi; Woolf-King, Sarah; Mansournia, Mohammad Ali

2016-06-27

To develop and apply a method to quantify bias parameters in the case example of the association between alcohol use and HIV-serodiscordant condomless anal sex with potential confounding by sensation seeking among men who have sex with men (MSM), using expert opinion as an external data source. Through an online survey, we sought the input of 41 epidemiologist and behavioural scientists to quantify six parameters in the population of MSM: the proportion of high sensation seeking among heavy-drinking MSM, the proportion of sensation seeking among low-level drinking MSM, and the risk ratio (RR) of the association between sensation seeking and condomless anal sex, for HIV-positive and HIV-negative MSM. Eleven experts responded. For HIV-positive heavy drinkers, the proportion of high sensation seeking was 53.6% (beta distribution [α=5.50, β=4.78]), and 41.1% (beta distribution [α=3.10, β=4.46]) in HIV-negative heavy drinkers. In HIV-positive low-level alcohol drinkers, high sensation seeking was 26.9% (beta distribution [α=1.81, β=4.92]), similar to high sensation seeking among HIV-negative low-level alcohol drinkers (25.3%) (beta distribution [α=2.00, β=5.89]). The lnRR for the association between sensation seeking and condomless anal sex was ln(2.4) (normal distribution [μ=0.889, σ=0.438]) in HIV-positive and ln(1.5) (normal distribution [μ=0.625, σ=0.391]) in HIV-negative MSM. Expert opinion can be a simple and efficient method for deriving bias parameters to quantify and adjust for hypothesized confounding. In this test case, expert opinion confirmed sensation seeking as a confounder for the effect of alcohol on condomless anal sex and provided the parameters necessary for probabilistic bias analysis.

Effect decomposition in the presence of an exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounder

PubMed Central

VanderWeele, Tyler J.; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Robins, James M.

2014-01-01

Methods from causal mediation analysis have generalized the traditional approach to direct and indirect effects in the epidemiologic and social science literature by allowing for interaction and non-linearities. However, the methods from the causal inference literature have themselves been subject to a major limitation in that the so-called natural direct and indirect effects that are employed are not identified from data whenever there is a variable that is affected by the exposure, which also confounds the relationship between the mediator and the outcome. In this paper we describe three alternative approaches to effect decomposition that give quantities that can be interpreted as direct and indirect effects, and that can be identified from data even in the presence of an exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounder. We describe a simple weighting-based estimation method for each of these three approaches, illustrated with data from perinatal epidemiology. The methods described here can shed insight into pathways and questions of mediation even when an exposure-induced mediator-outcome confounder is present. PMID:24487213

Physical Activity and Bone Health in Schoolchildren: The Mediating Role of Fitness and Body Fat

PubMed Central

Torres-Costoso, Ana; Gracia-Marco, Luis; Sánchez-López, Mairena; Notario-Pacheco, Blanca; Arias-Palencia, Natalia; Martínez-Vizcaíno, Vicente

2015-01-01

Background The relationship between physical activity (PA) and bone health is well known, although the role of percent body fat (%BF) and fitness as confounders or mediators in this relationship remains uncertain. Objective To examine whether the association between PA and bone mineral content (BMC) is mediated by %BF and cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF). Methods In this cross sectional study, BMC, total %BF (by DXA), vigorous PA (VPA), CRF, age and height were measured in 132 schoolchildren (62 boys, aged 8–11 years). ANCOVA was used to test differences in BMC by %BF, CRF and VPA, controlling for different sets of confounders. Simple mediation analyses and serial multiple mediation analyses were fitted to examine whether the relationship between PA and BMC is mediated by %BF and fitness. Results Children with high %BF had higher total body BMC than their peers after controlling for all sets of confounders. Children with good CRF or VPA had significantly less total body BMC after controlling for age and sex but in children with good CRF this inverse relation disappeared after adjusting by %BF. %BF and CRF both act as a full mediator in the association between VPA and BMC, after inclusion of the potential confounders in the models. Conclusion Fitness and %BF seem to have a mediator role on the relationship between physical activity and bone mass. PMID:25915941

Major Depressive Disorder and Impulsive Reactivity to Emotion: Toward a Dual Process View of Depression

PubMed Central

Carver, Charles S.; Johnson, Sheri L.; Joormann, Jutta

2012-01-01

Objective Dual process theories of behavior have been used to suggest that vulnerability to depression involves elevated reactivity to emotions. This study tests that idea, examining self-reported reactivity. Design Comparison between persons with at least one lifetime episode of major depressive disorder (lifetime MDD) and those without this diagnosis, controlling for symptoms of alcohol use (a potential externalizing confound) and current symptoms of depression (a potential state-dependent confound). Methods Undergraduates (N = 120) completed a clinical interview to diagnose lifetime MDD and a series of self-reports bearing on diverse aspects of self-control, including reactivity to emotion. Thirty-four were diagnosed with lifetime MDD; 86 did not meet criteria for MDD. The groups were then compared on three factors underlying the scales assessing self-control. Results The MDD group had higher scores than controls on the two factors that reflect impulsive reactivity to diverse emotions, including emotions that are positive in valence. These effects were not explained by associations with either externalizing symptoms or current depressive symptoms. Conclusions Reflexive reactivity to emotions characterizes depression, in addition to some externalizing problems, and it may deserve study as a potential transdiagnostic feature. PMID:23865405

Assessing Hospital Performance After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Using Big Data.

PubMed

Spertus, Jacob V; T Normand, Sharon-Lise; Wolf, Robert; Cioffi, Matt; Lovett, Ann; Rose, Sherri

2016-11-01

Although risk adjustment remains a cornerstone for comparing outcomes across hospitals, optimal strategies continue to evolve in the presence of many confounders. We compared conventional regression-based model to approaches particularly suited to leveraging big data. We assessed hospital all-cause 30-day excess mortality risk among 8952 adults undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention between October 1, 2011, and September 30, 2012, in 24 Massachusetts hospitals using clinical registry data linked with billing data. We compared conventional logistic regression models with augmented inverse probability weighted estimators and targeted maximum likelihood estimators to generate more efficient and unbiased estimates of hospital effects. We also compared a clinically informed and a machine-learning approach to confounder selection, using elastic net penalized regression in the latter case. Hospital excess risk estimates range from -1.4% to 2.0% across methods and confounder sets. Some hospitals were consistently classified as low or as high excess mortality outliers; others changed classification depending on the method and confounder set used. Switching from the clinically selected list of 11 confounders to a full set of 225 confounders increased the estimation uncertainty by an average of 62% across methods as measured by confidence interval length. Agreement among methods ranged from fair, with a κ statistic of 0.39 (SE: 0.16), to perfect, with a κ of 1 (SE: 0.0). Modern causal inference techniques should be more frequently adopted to leverage big data while minimizing bias in hospital performance assessments. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

Why Do Thin People Have Elevated All-Cause Mortality? Evidence on Confounding and Reverse Causality in the Association of Adiposity and COPD from the British Women’s Heart and Health Study

PubMed Central

Dale, Caroline; Nüesch, Eveline; Prieto-Merino, David; Choi, Minkyoung; Amuzu, Antoinette; Ebrahim, Shah; Casas, Juan P.; Davey-Smith, George

2015-01-01

Low adiposity has been linked to elevated mortality from several causes including respiratory disease. However, this could arise from confounding or reverse causality. We explore the association between two measures of adiposity (BMI and WHR) with COPD in the British Women’s Heart and Health Study including a detailed assessment of the potential for confounding and reverse causality for each adiposity measure. Low BMI was found to be associated with increased COPD risk while low WHR was not (OR = 2.2; 95% CI 1.3 – 3.1 versus OR = 1.2; 95% CI 0.7 – 1.6). Potential confounding variables (e.g. smoking) and markers of ill-health (e.g. unintentional weight loss) were found to be higher in low BMI but not in low WHR. Women with low BMI have a detrimental profile across a broad range of health markers compared to women with low WHR, and women with low WHR do not appear to have an elevated COPD risk, lending support to the hypothesis that WHR is a less confounded measure of adiposity than BMI. Low adiposity does not in itself appear to increase the risk of respiratory disease, and the apparent adverse consequences of low BMI may be due to reverse causation and confounding. PMID:25884834

Considerations for automated machine learning in clinical metabolic profiling: Altered homocysteine plasma concentration associated with metformin exposure.

PubMed

Orlenko, Alena; Moore, Jason H; Orzechowski, Patryk; Olson, Randal S; Cairns, Junmei; Caraballo, Pedro J; Weinshilboum, Richard M; Wang, Liewei; Breitenstein, Matthew K

2018-01-01

With the maturation of metabolomics science and proliferation of biobanks, clinical metabolic profiling is an increasingly opportunistic frontier for advancing translational clinical research. Automated Machine Learning (AutoML) approaches provide exciting opportunity to guide feature selection in agnostic metabolic profiling endeavors, where potentially thousands of independent data points must be evaluated. In previous research, AutoML using high-dimensional data of varying types has been demonstrably robust, outperforming traditional approaches. However, considerations for application in clinical metabolic profiling remain to be evaluated. Particularly, regarding the robustness of AutoML to identify and adjust for common clinical confounders. In this study, we present a focused case study regarding AutoML considerations for using the Tree-Based Optimization Tool (TPOT) in metabolic profiling of exposure to metformin in a biobank cohort. First, we propose a tandem rank-accuracy measure to guide agnostic feature selection and corresponding threshold determination in clinical metabolic profiling endeavors. Second, while AutoML, using default parameters, demonstrated potential to lack sensitivity to low-effect confounding clinical covariates, we demonstrated residual training and adjustment of metabolite features as an easily applicable approach to ensure AutoML adjustment for potential confounding characteristics. Finally, we present increased homocysteine with long-term exposure to metformin as a potentially novel, non-replicated metabolite association suggested by TPOT; an association not identified in parallel clinical metabolic profiling endeavors. While warranting independent replication, our tandem rank-accuracy measure suggests homocysteine to be the metabolite feature with largest effect, and corresponding priority for further translational clinical research. Residual training and adjustment for a potential confounding effect by BMI only slightly modified the suggested association. Increased homocysteine is thought to be associated with vitamin B12 deficiency - evaluation for potential clinical relevance is suggested. While considerations for clinical metabolic profiling are recommended, including adjustment approaches for clinical confounders, AutoML presents an exciting tool to enhance clinical metabolic profiling and advance translational research endeavors.

The relationship between urinary tract infection during pregnancy and preeclampsia: causal, confounded or spurious?

PubMed

Karmon, Anatte; Sheiner, Eyal

2008-06-01

Preeclampsia is a major cause of maternal morbidity, although its precise etiology remains elusive. A number of studies suggest that urinary tract infection (UTI) during the course of gestation is associated with elevated risk for preeclampsia, while others have failed to prove such an association. In our medical center, pregnant women who were exposed to at least one UTI episode during pregnancy were 1.3 times more likely to have mild preeclampsia and 1.8 times more likely to have severe preeclampsia as compared to unexposed women. Our results are based on univariate analyses and are not adjusted for potential confounders. This editorial aims to discuss the relationship between urinary tract infection and preeclampsia, as well as examine the current problems regarding the interpretation of this association. Although the relationship between UTI and preeclampsia has been demonstrated in studies with various designs, carried-out in a variety of settings, the nature of this association is unclear. By taking into account timeline, dose-response effects, treatment influences, and potential confounders, as well as by neutralizing potential biases, future studies may be able to clarify the relationship between UTI and preeclampsia by determining if it is causal, confounded, or spurious.

Accounting for genetic and environmental confounds in associations between parent and child characteristics: a systematic review of children-of-twins studies.

PubMed

McAdams, Tom A; Neiderhiser, Jenae M; Rijsdijk, Fruhling V; Narusyte, Jurgita; Lichtenstein, Paul; Eley, Thalia C

2014-07-01

Parental psychopathology, parenting style, and the quality of intrafamilial relationships are all associated with child mental health outcomes. However, most research can say little about the causal pathways underlying these associations. This is because most studies are not genetically informative and are therefore not able to account for the possibility that associations are confounded by gene-environment correlation. That is, biological parents not only provide a rearing environment for their child, but also contribute 50% of their genes. Any associations between parental phenotype and child phenotype are therefore potentially confounded. One technique for disentangling genetic from environmental effects is the children-of-twins (COT) method. This involves using data sets comprising twin parents and their children to distinguish genetic from environmental associations between parent and child phenotypes. The COT technique has grown in popularity in the last decade, and we predict that this surge in popularity will continue. In the present article we explain the COT method for those unfamiliar with its use. We present the logic underlying this approach, discuss strengths and weaknesses, and highlight important methodological considerations for researchers interested in the COT method. We also cover variations on basic COT approaches, including the extended-COT method, capable of distinguishing forms of gene-environment correlation. We then present a systematic review of all the behavioral COT studies published to date. These studies cover such diverse phenotypes as psychosis, substance abuse, internalizing, externalizing, parenting, and marital difficulties. In reviewing this literature, we highlight past applications, identify emergent patterns, and suggest avenues for future research. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2014 APA, all rights reserved.

Online market research panel members as controls in case-control studies to investigate gastrointestinal disease outbreaks: early experiences and lessons learnt from the UK.

PubMed

Mook, P; McCormick, J; Kanagarajah, S; Adak, G K; Cleary, P; Elson, R; Gobin, M; Hawker, J; Inns, T; Sinclair, C; Trienekens, S C M; Vivancos, R; McCarthy, N D

2018-03-01

Established methods of recruiting population controls for case-control studies to investigate gastrointestinal disease outbreaks can be time consuming, resulting in delays in identifying the source or vehicle of infection. After an initial evaluation of using online market research panel members as controls in a case-control study to investigate a Salmonella outbreak in 2013, this method was applied in four further studies in the UK between 2014 and 2016. We used data from all five studies and interviews with members of each outbreak control team and market research panel provider to review operational issues, evaluate risk of bias in this approach and consider methods to reduce confounding and bias. The investigators of each outbreak reported likely time and cost savings from using market research controls. There were systematic differences between case and control groups in some studies but no evidence that conclusions on the likely source or vehicle of infection were incorrect. Potential selection biases introduced by using this sampling frame and the low response rate are unclear. Methods that might reduce confounding and some bias should be balanced with concerns for overmatching. Further evaluation of this approach using comparisons with traditional methods and population-based exposure survey data is recommended.

The exposure-crossover design is a new method for studying sustained changes in recurrent events.

PubMed

Redelmeier, Donald A

2013-09-01

To introduce a new design that explores how an acute exposure might lead to a sustained change in the risk of a recurrent outcome. The exposure-crossover design uses self-matching to control within-person confounding due to genetics, personality, and all other stable patient characteristics. The design is demonstrated using population-based individual-level health data from Ontario, Canada, for three separate medical conditions (n > 100,000 for each) related to the risk of a motor vehicle crash (total outcomes, >2,000 for each). The exposure-crossover design yields numerical risk estimates during the baseline interval before an intervention, the induction interval immediately ahead of the intervention, and the subsequent interval after the intervention. Accompanying graphs summarize results, provide an intuitive display to readers, and show risk comparisons (absolute and relative). Self-matching increases statistical efficiency, reduces selection bias, and yields quantitative analyses. The design has potential limitations related to confounding, artifacts, pragmatics, survivor bias, statistical models, potential misunderstandings, and serendipity. The exposure-crossover design may help in exploring selected questions in epidemiology science. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

THE LINK BETWEEN EARLY ONSET DRINKING AND EARLY ONSET ALCOHOL-IMPAIRED DRIVING IN YOUNG MALES

PubMed Central

Zhang, Lening; Wieczorek, William F.; Welte, John W.

2014-01-01

Background Young drivers represent a disproportionate number of the individuals involved in alcohol-impaired driving. Although there is a known association between drinking and alcohol-impaired driving in young drivers, the link between early onset drinking and early onset alcohol-impaired driving has not been explored. Objectives The present study aimed to assess this link along with potentially confounding factors. Methods The assessment used a proportional hazards model with data collected from the Buffalo Longitudinal Study of Young Men, a population based sample of 625 males at ages of 16–19 years old. Results Controlling for the effects of potentially relevant confounds, the early onset of drinking was the most influential factor in predicting the early onset of alcohol-impaired driving. Race and the early onset of other forms of delinquency also played a significant role in the early onset of alcohol-impaired driving. Conclusion Preventing an early start of drinking among adolescents may be the most critical factor to address in preventing an early start of alcohol-impaired driving. PMID:24766089

Examining the role of unmeasured confounding in mediation analysis with genetic and genomic applications.

PubMed

Lutz, Sharon M; Thwing, Annie; Schmiege, Sarah; Kroehl, Miranda; Baker, Christopher D; Starling, Anne P; Hokanson, John E; Ghosh, Debashis

2017-07-19

In mediation analysis if unmeasured confounding is present, the estimates for the direct and mediated effects may be over or under estimated. Most methods for the sensitivity analysis of unmeasured confounding in mediation have focused on the mediator-outcome relationship. The Umediation R package enables the user to simulate unmeasured confounding of the exposure-mediator, exposure-outcome, and mediator-outcome relationships in order to see how the results of the mediation analysis would change in the presence of unmeasured confounding. We apply the Umediation package to the Genetic Epidemiology of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPDGene) study to examine the role of unmeasured confounding due to population stratification on the effect of a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) in the CHRNA5/3/B4 locus on pulmonary function decline as mediated by cigarette smoking. Umediation is a flexible R package that examines the role of unmeasured confounding in mediation analysis allowing for normally distributed or Bernoulli distributed exposures, outcomes, mediators, measured confounders, and unmeasured confounders. Umediation also accommodates multiple measured confounders, multiple unmeasured confounders, and allows for a mediator-exposure interaction on the outcome. Umediation is available as an R package at https://github.com/SharonLutz/Umediation A tutorial on how to install and use the Umediation package is available in the Additional file 1.

Association between Exposure to Electromagnetic Fields from High Voltage Transmission Lines and Neurobehavioral Function in Children

PubMed Central

Huang, Jiongli; Tang, Tiantong; Hu, Guocheng; Zheng, Jing; Wang, Yuyu; Wang, Qiang; Su, Jing; Zou, Yunfeng; Peng, Xiaowu

2013-01-01

Background Evidence for a possible causal relationship between exposure to electromagnetic fields (EMF) emitted by high voltage transmission (HVT) lines and neurobehavioral dysfunction in children is insufficient. The present study aims to investigate the association between EMF exposure from HVT lines and neurobehavioral function in children. Methods Two primary schools were chosen based on monitoring data of ambient electromagnetic radiation. A cross-sectional study with 437 children (9 to 13 years old) was conducted. Exposure to EMF from HVT lines was monitored at each school. Information was collected on possible confounders and relevant exposure predictors using standardized questionnaires. Neurobehavioral function in children was evaluated using established computerized neurobehavioral tests. Data was analyzed using multivariable regression models adjusted for relevant confounders. Results After controlling for potential confounding factors, multivariable regression revealed that children attending a school near 500 kV HVT lines had poorer performance on the computerized neurobehavioral tests for Visual Retention and Pursuit Aiming compared to children attending a school that was not in close proximity to HVT lines. Conclusions The results suggest long-term low-level exposure to EMF from HVT lines might have a negative impact on neurobehavioral function in children. However, because of differences in results only for two of four tests achieved statistical significance and potential limitations, more studies are needed to explore the effects of exposure to extremely low frequency EMF on neurobehavioral function and development in children. PMID:23843999

The Impact of HIV Status, HIV Disease Progression and Post-Traumatic Stress Symptoms on the Health-Related Quality of Life of Rwandan Women Genocide Survivors

PubMed Central

Gard, Tracy L.; Hoover, Donald R.; Shi, Qiuhu; Cohen, Mardge H.; Mutimura, Eugene; Adedimeji, Adebola A.; Anastos, Kathryn

2014-01-01

Purpose We examined whether established associations between HIV disease and HIV disease progression on worse health-related quality of life (HQOL) were applicable to women with severe trauma histories, in this case Rwandan women genocide survivors, the majority of whom were HIV infected. Additionally, this study attempted to clarify whether post-traumatic stress symptoms were uniquely associated with HQOL or confounded with depression. Methods The Rwandan Women’s Interassociation Study and Assessment (RWISA) was a longitudinal prospective study of HIV-infected and uninfected women. At study entry 922 women (705 HIV+ and 217 HIV−) completed measures of symptoms of post-traumatic stress and HQOL as well as other demographic, clinical and behavioral characteristics. Results Even after controlling for potential confounders and mediators, HIV+ women, in particular those with the lowest CD4 counts, scored significantly worse on HQOL and overall QOL than did HIV− women. Even after controlling for depression and HIV disease progression, women with more post-traumatic stress symptoms scored worse on HQOL and overall QOL than women with fewer post-traumatic stress symptoms. Conclusions This study demonstrated that post-traumatic stress symptoms were independently associated with HQOL and overall QOL, independent of depression and other confounders or potential mediators. Future research should examine whether the long term impact of treatment on physical and psychological symptoms of HIV and post-traumatic stress symptoms would generate improvement in HQOL. PMID:23271207

Identifying cis-mediators for trans-eQTLs across many human tissues using genomic mediation analysis

PubMed Central

Yang, Fan; Wang, Jiebiao; Pierce, Brandon L.; Chen, Lin S.

2017-01-01

The impact of inherited genetic variation on gene expression in humans is well-established. The majority of known expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) impact expression of local genes (cis-eQTLs). More research is needed to identify effects of genetic variation on distant genes (trans-eQTLs) and understand their biological mechanisms. One common trans-eQTLs mechanism is “mediation” by a local (cis) transcript. Thus, mediation analysis can be applied to genome-wide SNP and expression data in order to identify transcripts that are “cis-mediators” of trans-eQTLs, including those “cis-hubs” involved in regulation of many trans-genes. Identifying such mediators helps us understand regulatory networks and suggests biological mechanisms underlying trans-eQTLs, both of which are relevant for understanding susceptibility to complex diseases. The multitissue expression data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) program provides a unique opportunity to study cis-mediation across human tissue types. However, the presence of complex hidden confounding effects in biological systems can make mediation analyses challenging and prone to confounding bias, particularly when conducted among diverse samples. To address this problem, we propose a new method: Genomic Mediation analysis with Adaptive Confounding adjustment (GMAC). It enables the search of a very large pool of variables, and adaptively selects potential confounding variables for each mediation test. Analyses of simulated data and GTEx data demonstrate that the adaptive selection of confounders by GMAC improves the power and precision of mediation analysis. Application of GMAC to GTEx data provides new insights into the observed patterns of cis-hubs and trans-eQTL regulation across tissue types. PMID:29021290

Identifying cis-mediators for trans-eQTLs across many human tissues using genomic mediation analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Fan; Wang, Jiebiao; Pierce, Brandon L; Chen, Lin S

2017-11-01

The impact of inherited genetic variation on gene expression in humans is well-established. The majority of known expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) impact expression of local genes ( cis -eQTLs). More research is needed to identify effects of genetic variation on distant genes ( trans -eQTLs) and understand their biological mechanisms. One common trans -eQTLs mechanism is "mediation" by a local ( cis ) transcript. Thus, mediation analysis can be applied to genome-wide SNP and expression data in order to identify transcripts that are " cis -mediators" of trans -eQTLs, including those " cis -hubs" involved in regulation of many trans -genes. Identifying such mediators helps us understand regulatory networks and suggests biological mechanisms underlying trans -eQTLs, both of which are relevant for understanding susceptibility to complex diseases. The multitissue expression data from the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) program provides a unique opportunity to study cis -mediation across human tissue types. However, the presence of complex hidden confounding effects in biological systems can make mediation analyses challenging and prone to confounding bias, particularly when conducted among diverse samples. To address this problem, we propose a new method: Genomic Mediation analysis with Adaptive Confounding adjustment (GMAC). It enables the search of a very large pool of variables, and adaptively selects potential confounding variables for each mediation test. Analyses of simulated data and GTEx data demonstrate that the adaptive selection of confounders by GMAC improves the power and precision of mediation analysis. Application of GMAC to GTEx data provides new insights into the observed patterns of cis -hubs and trans -eQTL regulation across tissue types. © 2017 Yang et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Generalizability of dietary patterns of the inverse association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes risk

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Epidemiology of dietary components and disease risk limits interpretability due to potential residual confounding by correlated dietary components. Dietary pattern analyses by factor analysis or partial least squares may overcome this limitation. To examine confounding by dietary pattern as well as ...

Instrumental Variable Methods for Continuous Outcomes That Accommodate Nonignorable Missing Baseline Values.

PubMed

Ertefaie, Ashkan; Flory, James H; Hennessy, Sean; Small, Dylan S

2017-06-15

Instrumental variable (IV) methods provide unbiased treatment effect estimation in the presence of unmeasured confounders under certain assumptions. To provide valid estimates of treatment effect, treatment effect confounders that are associated with the IV (IV-confounders) must be included in the analysis, and not including observations with missing values may lead to bias. Missing covariate data are particularly problematic when the probability that a value is missing is related to the value itself, which is known as nonignorable missingness. In such cases, imputation-based methods are biased. Using health-care provider preference as an IV method, we propose a 2-step procedure with which to estimate a valid treatment effect in the presence of baseline variables with nonignorable missing values. First, the provider preference IV value is estimated by performing a complete-case analysis using a random-effects model that includes IV-confounders. Second, the treatment effect is estimated using a 2-stage least squares IV approach that excludes IV-confounders with missing values. Simulation results are presented, and the method is applied to an analysis comparing the effects of sulfonylureas versus metformin on body mass index, where the variables baseline body mass index and glycosylated hemoglobin have missing values. Our result supports the association of sulfonylureas with weight gain. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Using propensity scores to estimate the effects of insecticides on stream invertebrates from observational data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lester L. Yuan,; Amina I. Pollard,; Carlisle, Daren M.

2009-01-01

Analyses of observational data can provide insights into relationships between environmental conditions and biological responses across a broader range of natural conditions than experimental studies, potentially complementing insights gained from experiments. However, observational data must be analyzed carefully to minimize the likelihood that confounding variables bias observed relationships. Propensity scores provide a robust approach for controlling for the effects of measured confounding variables when analyzing observational data. Here, we use propensity scores to estimate changes in mean invertebrate taxon richness in streams that have experienced insecticide concentrations that exceed aquatic life use benchmark concentrations. A simple comparison of richness in sites exposed to elevated insecticides with those that were not exposed suggests that exposed sites had on average 6.8 fewer taxa compared to unexposed sites. The presence of potential confounding variables makes it difficult to assert a causal relationship from this simple comparison. After controlling for confounding factors using propensity scores, the difference in richness between exposed and unexposed sites was reduced to 4.1 taxa, a difference that was still statistically significant. Because the propensity score analysis controlled for the effects of a wide variety of possible confounding variables, we infer that the change in richness observed in the propensity score analysis was likely caused by insecticide exposure.

Using propensity scores to estimate the effects of insecticides on stream invertebrates from observational data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yuan, L.L.; Pollard, A.I.; Carlisle, D.M.

2009-01-01

Analyses of observational data can provide insights into relationships between environmental conditions and biological responses across a broader range of natural conditions than experimental studies, potentially complementing insights gained from experiments. However, observational data must be analyzed carefully to minimize the likelihood that confounding variables bias observed relationships. Propensity scores provide a robust approach for controlling for the effects of measured confounding variables when analyzing observational data. Here, we use propensity scores to estimate changes in mean invertebrate taxon richness in streams that have experienced insecticide concentrations that exceed aquatic life use benchmark concentrations. A simple comparison of richness in sites exposed to elevated insecticides with those that were not exposed suggests that exposed sites had on average 6.8 fewer taxa compared to unexposed sites. The presence of potential confounding variables makes it difficult to assert a causal relationship from this simple comparison. After controlling for confounding factors using propensity scores, the difference in richness between exposed and unexposed sites was reduced to 4.1 taxa, a difference that was still statistically significant. Because the propensity score analysis controlled for the effects of a wide variety of possible confounding variables, we infer that the change in richness observed in the propensity score analysis was likely caused by insecticide exposure. ?? 2009 SETAC.

Supervisor Autonomy and Considerate Leadership Style are Associated with Supervisors’ Likelihood to Accommodate Back Injured Workers

PubMed Central

McGuire, Connor; Kristman, Vicki L; Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Reguly, Paula; Shaw, William; Soklaridis, Sophie

2015-01-01

PURPOSE To determine the association between supervisors’ leadership style and autonomy and supervisors’ likelihood of supporting job accommodations for back-injured workers. METHODS A cross-sectional study of supervisors from Canadian and US employers was conducted using a web-based, self-report questionnaire that included a case vignette of a back-injured worker. Autonomy and two dimensions of leadership style (considerate and initiating structure) were included as exposures. The outcome, supervisors’ likeliness to support job accommodation, was measured with the Job Accommodation Scale. We conducted univariate analyses of all variables and bivariate analyses of the JAS score with each exposure and potential confounding factor. We used multivariable generalized linear models to control for confounding factors. RESULTS A total of 796 supervisors participated. Considerate leadership style (β= .012; 95% CI: .009–.016) and autonomy (β= .066; 95% CI: .025–.11) were positively associated with supervisors’ likelihood to accommodate after adjusting for appropriate confounding factors. An initiating structure leadership style was not significantly associated with supervisors’ likelihood to accommodate (β = .0018; 95% CI: −.0026–.0061) after adjusting for appropriate confounders. CONCLUSIONS Autonomy and a considerate leadership style were positively associated with supervisors’ likelihood to accommodate a back-injured worker. Providing supervisors with more autonomy over decisions of accommodation and developing their considerate leadership style may aid in increasing work accommodation for back-injured workers and preventing prolonged work disability. PMID:25595332

Mismeasurement and the resonance of strong confounders: correlated errors.

PubMed

Marshall, J R; Hastrup, J L; Ross, J S

1999-07-01

Confounding in epidemiology, and the limits of standard methods of control for an imperfectly measured confounder, have been understood for some time. However, most treatments of this problem are based on the assumption that errors of measurement in confounding and confounded variables are independent. This paper considers the situation in which a strong risk factor (confounder) and an inconsequential but suspected risk factor (confounded) are each measured with errors that are correlated; the situation appears especially likely to occur in the field of nutritional epidemiology. Error correlation appears to add little to measurement error as a source of bias in estimating the impact of a strong risk factor: it can add to, diminish, or reverse the bias induced by measurement error in estimating the impact of the inconsequential risk factor. Correlation of measurement errors can add to the difficulty involved in evaluating structures in which confounding and measurement error are present. In its presence, observed correlations among risk factors can be greater than, less than, or even opposite to the true correlations. Interpretation of multivariate epidemiologic structures in which confounding is likely requires evaluation of measurement error structures, including correlations among measurement errors.

Invited Commentary: Beware the Test-Negative Design.

PubMed

Westreich, Daniel; Hudgens, Michael G

2016-09-01

In this issue of the Journal, Sullivan et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2016;184(5):345-353) carefully examine the theoretical justification for use of the test-negative design, a common observational study design, in assessing the effectiveness of influenza vaccination. Using modern causal inference methods (in particular, directed acyclic graphs), they describe different threats to the validity of inferences drawn about the effect of vaccination from test-negative design studies. These threats include confounding, selection bias, and measurement error in either the exposure or the outcome. While confounding and measurement error are common in observational studies, the potential for selection bias inherent in the test-negative design brings into question the validity of inferences drawn from such studies. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Mediation Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide.

PubMed

VanderWeele, Tyler J

2016-01-01

This article provides an overview of recent developments in mediation analysis, that is, analyses used to assess the relative magnitude of different pathways and mechanisms by which an exposure may affect an outcome. Traditional approaches to mediation in the biomedical and social sciences are described. Attention is given to the confounding assumptions required for a causal interpretation of direct and indirect effect estimates. Methods from the causal inference literature to conduct mediation in the presence of exposure-mediator interactions, binary outcomes, binary mediators, and case-control study designs are presented. Sensitivity analysis techniques for unmeasured confounding and measurement error are introduced. Discussion is given to extensions to time-to-event outcomes and multiple mediators. Further flexible modeling strategies arising from the precise counterfactual definitions of direct and indirect effects are also described. The focus throughout is on methodology that is easily implementable in practice across a broad range of potential applications.

On the equivalence of case-crossover and time series methods in environmental epidemiology.

PubMed

Lu, Yun; Zeger, Scott L

2007-04-01

The case-crossover design was introduced in epidemiology 15 years ago as a method for studying the effects of a risk factor on a health event using only cases. The idea is to compare a case's exposure immediately prior to or during the case-defining event with that same person's exposure at otherwise similar "reference" times. An alternative approach to the analysis of daily exposure and case-only data is time series analysis. Here, log-linear regression models express the expected total number of events on each day as a function of the exposure level and potential confounding variables. In time series analyses of air pollution, smooth functions of time and weather are the main confounders. Time series and case-crossover methods are often viewed as competing methods. In this paper, we show that case-crossover using conditional logistic regression is a special case of time series analysis when there is a common exposure such as in air pollution studies. This equivalence provides computational convenience for case-crossover analyses and a better understanding of time series models. Time series log-linear regression accounts for overdispersion of the Poisson variance, while case-crossover analyses typically do not. This equivalence also permits model checking for case-crossover data using standard log-linear model diagnostics.

Interpretational confounding is due to misspecification, not to type of indicator: comment on Howell, Breivik, and Wilcox (2007).

PubMed

Bollen, Kenneth A

2007-06-01

R. D. Howell, E. Breivik, and J. B. Wilcox (2007) have argued that causal (formative) indicators are inherently subject to interpretational confounding. That is, they have argued that using causal (formative) indicators leads the empirical meaning of a latent variable to be other than that assigned to it by a researcher. Their critique of causal (formative) indicators rests on several claims: (a) A latent variable exists apart from the model when there are effect (reflective) indicators but not when there are causal (formative) indicators, (b) causal (formative) indicators need not have the same consequences, (c) causal (formative) indicators are inherently subject to interpretational confounding, and (d) a researcher cannot detect interpretational confounding when using causal (formative) indicators. This article shows that each claim is false. Rather, interpretational confounding is more a problem of structural misspecification of a model combined with an underidentified model that leaves these misspecifications undetected. Interpretational confounding does not occur if the model is correctly specified whether a researcher has causal (formative) or effect (reflective) indicators. It is the validity of a model not the type of indicator that determines the potential for interpretational confounding. Copyright 2007 APA, all rights reserved.

A systematic literature review on the efficacy–effectiveness gap: comparison of randomized controlled trials and observational studies of glucose-lowering drugs

PubMed Central

Ankarfeldt, Mikkel Z; Adalsteinsson, Erpur; Groenwold, Rolf HH; Ali, M Sanni; Klungel, Olaf H

2017-01-01

Aim To identify a potential efficacy–effectiveness gap and possible explanations (drivers of effectiveness) for differences between results of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies investigating glucose-lowering drugs. Methods A systematic literature review was conducted in English language articles published between 1 January, 2000 and 31 January, 2015 describing either RCTs or observational studies comparing glucagon-like peptide-1 analogs (GLP-1) with insulin or comparing dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) with sulfonylurea, all with change in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) as outcome. Medline, Embase, Current Content, and Biosis were searched. Information on effect estimates, baseline characteristics of the study population, publication year, study duration, and number of patients, and for observational studies, characteristics related to confounding adjustment and selection- and information bias were extracted. Results From 312 hits, 11 RCTs and 7 observational studies comparing GLP-1 with insulin, and from 474 hits, 16 RCTs and 4 observational studies comparing DPP-4i with sulfonylurea were finally included. No differences were observed in baseline characteristics of the study populations (age, sex, body mass index, time since diagnosis of type 2 diabetes mellitus, and HbA1c) or effect sizes across study designs. Mean effect sizes ranged from −0.43 to 0.91 and from −0.80 to 1.13 in RCTs and observational studies, respectively, comparing GLP-1 with insulin, and from −0.13 to 2.70 and −0.20 to 0.30 in RCTs and observational studies, respectively, comparing DPP-4i and sulfonylurea. Generally, the identified observational studies held potential flaws with regard to confounding adjustment and selection- and information bias. Conclusions Neither potential drivers of effectiveness nor an efficacy–effectiveness gap were identified. However, the limited number of studies and potential problems with confounding adjustment, selection- and information bias in the observational studies, may have hidden a true efficacy-effectiveness gap. PMID:28176959

An operant-based detection method for inferring tinnitus in mice.

PubMed

Zuo, Hongyan; Lei, Debin; Sivaramakrishnan, Shobhana; Howie, Benjamin; Mulvany, Jessica; Bao, Jianxin

2017-11-01

Subjective tinnitus is a hearing disorder in which a person perceives sound when no external sound is present. It can be acute or chronic. Because our current understanding of its pathology is incomplete, no effective cures have yet been established. Mouse models are useful for studying the pathophysiology of tinnitus as well as for developing therapeutic treatments. We have developed a new method for determining acute and chronic tinnitus in mice, called sound-based avoidance detection (SBAD). The SBAD method utilizes one paradigm to detect tinnitus and another paradigm to monitor possible confounding factors, such as motor impairment, loss of motivation, and deficits in learning and memory. The SBAD method has succeeded in monitoring both acute and chronic tinnitus in mice. Its detection ability is further validated by functional studies demonstrating an abnormal increase in neuronal activity in the inferior colliculus of mice that had previously been identified as having tinnitus by the SBAD method. The SBAD method provides a new means by which investigators can detect tinnitus in a single mouse accurately and with more control over potential confounding factors than existing methods. This work establishes a new behavioral method for detecting tinnitus in mice. The detection outcome is consistent with functional validation. One key advantage of mouse models is they provide researchers the opportunity to utilize an extensive array of genetic tools. This new method could lead to a deeper understanding of the molecular pathways underlying tinnitus pathology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Framework for Estimating Causal Effects in Latent Class Analysis: Is There a Causal Link Between Early Sex and Subsequent Profiles of Delinquency?

PubMed Central

Lanza, Stephanie T.; Coffman, Donna L.

2013-01-01

Prevention scientists use latent class analysis (LCA) with increasing frequency to characterize complex behavior patterns and profiles of risk. Often, the most important research questions in these studies involve establishing characteristics that predict membership in the latent classes, thus describing the composition of the subgroups and suggesting possible points of intervention. More recently, prevention scientists have begun to adopt modern methods for drawing causal inference from observational data because of the bias that can be introduced by confounders. This same issue of confounding exists in any analysis of observational data, including prediction of latent class membership. This study demonstrates a straightforward approach to causal inference in LCA that builds on propensity score methods. We demonstrate this approach by examining the causal effect of early sex on subsequent delinquency latent classes using data from 1,890 adolescents in 11th and 12th grade from wave I of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Prior to the statistical adjustment for potential confounders, early sex was significantly associated with delinquency latent class membership for both genders (p=0.02). However, the propensity score adjusted analysis indicated no evidence for a causal effect of early sex on delinquency class membership (p=0.76) for either gender. Sample R and SAS code is included in an Appendix in the ESM so that prevention scientists may adopt this approach to causal inference in LCA in their own work. PMID:23839479

A framework for estimating causal effects in latent class analysis: is there a causal link between early sex and subsequent profiles of delinquency?

PubMed

Butera, Nicole M; Lanza, Stephanie T; Coffman, Donna L

2014-06-01

Prevention scientists use latent class analysis (LCA) with increasing frequency to characterize complex behavior patterns and profiles of risk. Often, the most important research questions in these studies involve establishing characteristics that predict membership in the latent classes, thus describing the composition of the subgroups and suggesting possible points of intervention. More recently, prevention scientists have begun to adopt modern methods for drawing causal inference from observational data because of the bias that can be introduced by confounders. This same issue of confounding exists in any analysis of observational data, including prediction of latent class membership. This study demonstrates a straightforward approach to causal inference in LCA that builds on propensity score methods. We demonstrate this approach by examining the causal effect of early sex on subsequent delinquency latent classes using data from 1,890 adolescents in 11th and 12th grade from wave I of the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health. Prior to the statistical adjustment for potential confounders, early sex was significantly associated with delinquency latent class membership for both genders (p = 0.02). However, the propensity score adjusted analysis indicated no evidence for a causal effect of early sex on delinquency class membership (p = 0.76) for either gender. Sample R and SAS code is included in an Appendix in the ESM so that prevention scientists may adopt this approach to causal inference in LCA in their own work.

Inhibitory Control in Siblings Discordant for Exposure to Maternal Smoking during Pregnancy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Micalizzi, Lauren; Marceau, Kristine; Brick, Leslie A.; Palmer, Rohan H.; Todorov, Alexandre A.; Heath, Andrew C.; Evans, Allison; Knopik, Valerie S.

2018-01-01

Maternal smoking during pregnancy (SDP) has been linked to poorer offspring executive function across development, but SDP does not occur independent of other familial risk factors. As such, poor and inconsistent control for potential confounds, notably shared familial (i.e., genetic and environmental) confounds, preclude concluding causal effects…

Analyzing partially missing confounder information in comparative effectiveness and safety research of therapeutics.

PubMed

Toh, Sengwee; García Rodríguez, Luis A; Hernán, Miguel A

2012-05-01

Electronic healthcare databases are commonly used in comparative effectiveness and safety research of therapeutics. Many databases now include additional confounder information in a subset of the study population through data linkage or data collection. We described and compared existing methods for analyzing such datasets. Using data from The Health Improvement Network and the relation between non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs and upper gastrointestinal bleeding as an example, we employed several methods to handle partially missing confounder information. The crude odds ratio (OR) of upper gastrointestinal bleeding was 1.50 (95% confidence interval: 0.98, 2.28) among selective cyclo-oxygenase-2 inhibitor initiators (n = 43 569) compared with traditional non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug initiators (n = 411 616). The OR dropped to 0.81 (0.52, 1.27) upon adjustment for confounders recorded for all patients. When further considering three additional variables missing in 22% of the study population (smoking, alcohol consumption, body mass index), the OR was between 0.80 and 0.83 for the missing-category approach, the missing-indicator approach, single imputation by the most common category, multiple imputation by chained equations, and propensity score calibration. The OR was 0.65 (0.39, 1.09) and 0.67 (0.38, 1.16) for the unweighted and the inverse probability weighted complete-case analysis, respectively. Existing methods for handling partially missing confounder data require different assumptions and may produce different results. The unweighted complete-case analysis, the missing-category/indicator approach, and single imputation require often unrealistic assumptions and should be avoided. In this study, differences across methods were not substantial, likely due to relatively low proportion of missingness and weak confounding effect by the three additional variables upon adjustment for other variables. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bias, Confounding, and Interaction: Lions and Tigers, and Bears, Oh My!

PubMed

Vetter, Thomas R; Mascha, Edward J

2017-09-01

Epidemiologists seek to make a valid inference about the causal effect between an exposure and a disease in a specific population, using representative sample data from a specific population. Clinical researchers likewise seek to make a valid inference about the association between an intervention and outcome(s) in a specific population, based upon their randomly collected, representative sample data. Both do so by using the available data about the sample variable to make a valid estimate about its corresponding or underlying, but unknown population parameter. Random error in an experiment can be due to the natural, periodic fluctuation or variation in the accuracy or precision of virtually any data sampling technique or health measurement tool or scale. In a clinical research study, random error can be due to not only innate human variability but also purely chance. Systematic error in an experiment arises from an innate flaw in the data sampling technique or measurement instrument. In the clinical research setting, systematic error is more commonly referred to as systematic bias. The most commonly encountered types of bias in anesthesia, perioperative, critical care, and pain medicine research include recall bias, observational bias (Hawthorne effect), attrition bias, misclassification or informational bias, and selection bias. A confounding variable is a factor associated with both the exposure of interest and the outcome of interest. A confounding variable (confounding factor or confounder) is a variable that correlates (positively or negatively) with both the exposure and outcome. Confounding is typically not an issue in a randomized trial because the randomized groups are sufficiently balanced on all potential confounding variables, both observed and nonobserved. However, confounding can be a major problem with any observational (nonrandomized) study. Ignoring confounding in an observational study will often result in a "distorted" or incorrect estimate of the association or treatment effect. Interaction among variables, also known as effect modification, exists when the effect of 1 explanatory variable on the outcome depends on the particular level or value of another explanatory variable. Bias and confounding are common potential explanations for statistically significant associations between exposure and outcome when the true relationship is noncausal. Understanding interactions is vital to proper interpretation of treatment effects. These complex concepts should be consistently and appropriately considered whenever one is not only designing but also analyzing and interpreting data from a randomized trial or observational study.

A Comprehensive Analysis of the SRS-Schwab Adult Spinal Deformity Classification and Confounding Variables: A Prospective, Non-US Cross-sectional Study in 292 Patients.

PubMed

Hallager, Dennis Winge; Hansen, Lars Valentin; Dragsted, Casper Rokkjær; Peytz, Nina; Gehrchen, Martin; Dahl, Benny

2016-05-01

Cross-sectional analyses on a consecutive, prospective cohort. To evaluate the ability of the Scoliosis Research Society (SRS)-Schwab Adult Spinal Deformity Classification to group patients by widely used health-related quality-of-life (HRQOL) scores and examine possible confounding variables. The SRS-Schwab Adult Spinal Deformity Classification includes sagittal modifiers considered important for HRQOL and the clinical impact of the classification has been validated in patients from the International Spine Study Group database; however, equivocal results were reported for the Pelvic Tilt modifier and potential confounding variables were not evaluated. Between March 2013 and May 2014, all adult spinal deformity patients from our outpatient clinic with sufficient radiographs were prospectively enrolled. Analyses of HRQOL variance and post hoc analyses were performed for each SRS-Schwab modifier. Age, history of spine surgery, and aetiology of spinal deformity were considered potential confounders and their influence on the association between SRS-Schwab modifiers and aggregated Oswestry Disability Index (ODI) scores was evaluated with multivariate proportional odds regressions. P values were adjusted for multiple testing. Two hundred ninety-two of 460 eligible patients were included for analyses. The SRS-Schwab Classification significantly discriminated HRQOL scores between normal and abnormal sagittal modifier classifications. Individual grade comparisons showed equivocal results; however, Pelvic Tilt grade + versus +  + did not discriminate patients according to any HRQOL score. All modifiers showed significant proportional odds for worse aggregated ODI scores with increasing grade levels and the effects were robust to confounding. However, age group and aetiology had individual significant effects. The SRS-Schwab sagittal modifiers reliably grouped patients graded 0 versus + / +  + according to the most widely used HRQOL scores and the effects of increasing grade level on odds for worse ODI scores remained significant after adjusting for potential confounders. However, effects of age group and aetiology should not be neglected. 3.

Animal Models of Depression and Drug Delivery with Food as an Effective Dosing Method: Evidences from Studies with Celecoxib and Dicholine Succinate.

PubMed

Costa-Nunes, João P; Cline, Brandon H; Araújo-Correia, Margarida; Valença, Andreia; Markova, Natalyia; Dolgov, Oleg; Kubatiev, Aslan; Yeritsyan, Naira; Steinbusch, Harry W M; Strekalova, Tatyana

2015-01-01

Multiple models of human neuropsychiatric pathologies have been generated during the last decades which frequently use chronic dosing. Unfortunately, some drug administration methods may result in undesirable effects creating analysis confounds hampering model validity and preclinical assay outcomes. Here, automated analysis of floating behaviour, a sign of a depressive-like state, revealed that mice, subjected to a three-week intraperitoneal injection regimen, had increased floating. In order to probe an alternative dosing design that would preclude this effect, we studied the efficacy of a low dose of the antidepressant imipramine (7 mg/kg/day) delivered via food pellets. Antidepressant action for this treatment was found while no other behavioural effects were observed. We further investigated the potential efficacy of chronic dosing via food pellets by testing the antidepressant activity of new drug candidates, celecoxib (30 mg/kg/day) and dicholine succinate (50 mg/kg/day), against standard antidepressants, imipramine (7 mg/kg/day) and citalopram (15 mg/kg/day), utilizing the forced swim and tail suspension tests. Antidepressant effects of these compounds were found in both assays. Thus, chronic dosing via food pellets is efficacious in small rodents, even with a low drug dose design, and can prevail against potential confounds in translational research within depression models applicable to adverse chronic invasive pharmacotherapies.

Animal Models of Depression and Drug Delivery with Food as an Effective Dosing Method: Evidences from Studies with Celecoxib and Dicholine Succinate

PubMed Central

Costa-Nunes, João P.; Cline, Brandon H.; Araújo-Correia, Margarida; Valença, Andreia; Markova, Natalyia; Dolgov, Oleg; Kubatiev, Aslan; Yeritsyan, Naira; Steinbusch, Harry W. M.

2015-01-01

Multiple models of human neuropsychiatric pathologies have been generated during the last decades which frequently use chronic dosing. Unfortunately, some drug administration methods may result in undesirable effects creating analysis confounds hampering model validity and preclinical assay outcomes. Here, automated analysis of floating behaviour, a sign of a depressive-like state, revealed that mice, subjected to a three-week intraperitoneal injection regimen, had increased floating. In order to probe an alternative dosing design that would preclude this effect, we studied the efficacy of a low dose of the antidepressant imipramine (7 mg/kg/day) delivered via food pellets. Antidepressant action for this treatment was found while no other behavioural effects were observed. We further investigated the potential efficacy of chronic dosing via food pellets by testing the antidepressant activity of new drug candidates, celecoxib (30 mg/kg/day) and dicholine succinate (50 mg/kg/day), against standard antidepressants, imipramine (7 mg/kg/day) and citalopram (15 mg/kg/day), utilizing the forced swim and tail suspension tests. Antidepressant effects of these compounds were found in both assays. Thus, chronic dosing via food pellets is efficacious in small rodents, even with a low drug dose design, and can prevail against potential confounds in translational research within depression models applicable to adverse chronic invasive pharmacotherapies. PMID:26064929

Adjusting for Confounding in Early Postlaunch Settings: Going Beyond Logistic Regression Models.

PubMed

Schmidt, Amand F; Klungel, Olaf H; Groenwold, Rolf H H

2016-01-01

Postlaunch data on medical treatments can be analyzed to explore adverse events or relative effectiveness in real-life settings. These analyses are often complicated by the number of potential confounders and the possibility of model misspecification. We conducted a simulation study to compare the performance of logistic regression, propensity score, disease risk score, and stabilized inverse probability weighting methods to adjust for confounding. Model misspecification was induced in the independent derivation dataset. We evaluated performance using relative bias confidence interval coverage of the true effect, among other metrics. At low events per coefficient (1.0 and 0.5), the logistic regression estimates had a large relative bias (greater than -100%). Bias of the disease risk score estimates was at most 13.48% and 18.83%. For the propensity score model, this was 8.74% and >100%, respectively. At events per coefficient of 1.0 and 0.5, inverse probability weighting frequently failed or reduced to a crude regression, resulting in biases of -8.49% and 24.55%. Coverage of logistic regression estimates became less than the nominal level at events per coefficient ≤5. For the disease risk score, inverse probability weighting, and propensity score, coverage became less than nominal at events per coefficient ≤2.5, ≤1.0, and ≤1.0, respectively. Bias of misspecified disease risk score models was 16.55%. In settings with low events/exposed subjects per coefficient, disease risk score methods can be useful alternatives to logistic regression models, especially when propensity score models cannot be used. Despite better performance of disease risk score methods than logistic regression and propensity score models in small events per coefficient settings, bias, and coverage still deviated from nominal.

Towards non-conventional methods of designing register-based epidemiological studies: An application to pediatric research.

PubMed

Gong, Tong; Brew, Bronwyn; Sjölander, Arvid; Almqvist, Catarina

2017-07-01

Various epidemiological designs have been applied to investigate the causes and consequences of fetal growth restriction in register-based observational studies. This review seeks to provide an overview of several conventional designs, including cohort, case-control and more recently applied non-conventional designs such as family-based designs. We also discuss some practical points regarding the application and interpretation of family-based designs. Definitions of each design, the study population, the exposure and the outcome measures are briefly summarised. Examples of study designs are taken from the field of low birth-weight research for illustrative purposes. Also examined are relative advantages and disadvantages of each design in terms of assumptions, potential selection and information bias, confounding and generalisability. Kinship data linkage, statistical models and result interpretation are discussed specific to family-based designs. When all information is retrieved from registers, there is no evident preference of the case-control design over the cohort design to estimate odds ratios. All conventional designs included in the review are prone to bias, particularly due to residual confounding. Family-based designs are able to reduce such bias and strengthen causal inference. In the field of low birth-weight research, family-based designs have been able to confirm a negative association not confounded by genetic or shared environmental factors between low birth weight and the risk of asthma. We conclude that there is a broader need for family-based design in observational research as evidenced by the meaningful contributions to the understanding of the potential causal association between low birth weight and subsequent outcomes.

Parkinson’s Disease and PD Medications Have Distinct Signatures of the Gut Microbiome

PubMed Central

Hill-Burns, Erin M.; Debelius, Justine W.; Morton, James T.; Wissemann, William T.; Lewis, Matthew R.; Wallen, Zachary D.; Peddada, Shyamal D.; Factor, Stewart A.; Molho, Eric; Zabetian, Cyrus P.; Knight, Rob; Payami, Haydeh

2017-01-01

Background There is mounting evidence for a connection between the gut and Parkinson’s disease (PD). Dysbiosis of gut microbiota could explain several features of PD. Objective To determine if PD involves dysbiosis of gut microbiome, disentangle effects of confounders, and identify candidate taxa and functional pathways to guide research. Methods 197 PD cases and 130 controls were studied. Microbial composition was determined by 16S rRNA gene sequencing of DNA extracted from stool. Metadata were collected on 39 potential confounders including medications, diet, gastrointestinal symptoms, and demographics. Statistical analyses were conducted while controlling for potential confounders and correcting for multiple testing. We tested differences in the overall microbial composition, taxa abundance, and functional pathways. Results Independent microbial signatures were detected for PD (P=4E-5), subjects’ region of residence within the United States (P=3E-3), age (P=0.03), sex (P=1E-3) and dietary fruits/vegetables (P=0.01). Among patients, independent signals were detected for catechol-O-methyltransferase-inhibitors (P=4E-4), anticholinergics (P=5E-3), and possibly carbidopa/levodopa (P=0.05). We found significantly altered abundance of Bifidobacteriaceae, Christensenellaceae, [Tissierellaceae], Lachnospiraceae, Lactobacillaceae, Pasteurellaceae and Verrucomicrobiaceae families. Functional predictions revealed changes in numerous pathways including metabolism of plant-derived compounds and xenobiotics degradation. Conclusion PD is accompanied by dysbiosis of gut microbiome. Results coalesce divergent findings of prior studies, reveal altered abundance of several taxa, nominate functional pathways, and demonstrate independent effects of PD medications on the microbiome. The findings provide new leads and testable hypotheses on the pathophysiology and treatment of PD. PMID:28195358

Intra-Aortic Balloon Pump Counterpulsation during Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction and Cardiogenic Shock: Insights from the British Columbia Cardiac Registry

PubMed Central

Iqbal, M. Bilal; Robinson, Simon D.; Ding, Lillian; Fung, Anthony; Aymong, Eve; Chan, Albert W.; Hodge, Steven; Della Siega, Anthony; Nadra, Imad J.

2016-01-01

Background Cardiogenic shock complicating ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. In the primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI) era, randomized trials have not shown a survival benefit with intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) therapy. This differs to observational data which show a detrimental effect, potentially reflecting bias and confounding. Without robust and valid risk adjustment, findings from non-randomized studies may remain biased. Methods We compared long-term mortality following IABP therapy in patients with cardiogenic shock undergoing PPCI during 2008–2013 from the British Columbia Cardiac Registry. We addressed measured and unmeasured confounding using propensity score and instrumental variable methods. Results A total of 12,105 patients with STEMI were treated with PPCI during the study period. Of these, 700 patients (5.8%) had cardiogenic shock. Of the patients with cardiogenic shock, 255 patients (36%) received IABP therapy. Multivariable analyses identified IABP therapy to be associated with increased mortality up to 3 years (HR = 1.67, 95% CI:1.20–2.67, p<0.001). This association was lost in propensity-matched analyses (HR = 1.23, 95% CI: 0.84–1.80, p = 0.288). When addressing measured and unmeasured confounders, instrumental variable analyses demonstrated that IABP therapy was not associated with mortality at 3 years (Δ = 16.7%, 95% CI: -12.7%, 46.1%, p = 0.281). Subgroup analyses demonstrated IABP was associated with increased mortality in non-diabetics; patients not undergoing multivessel intervention; patients without renal disease and patients not having received prior thrombolysis. Conclusions In this observational analysis of patients with STEMI and cardiogenic shock, when adjusting for confounding, IABP therapy had a neutral effect with no association with long-term mortality. These findings differ to previously reported observational studies, but are in keeping with randomized trial data. PMID:26870950

Impact of Coal Mining on Self-Rated Health among Appalachian Residents

PubMed Central

Woolley, Shannon M.; Bear, Todd M.; Balmert, Lauren C.; Talbott, Evelyn O.; Buchanich, Jeanine M.

2015-01-01

Objective. To determine the impact of coal mining, measured as the number of coal mining-related facilities nearby one's residence or employment in an occupation directly related to coal mining, on self-rated health in Appalachia. Methods. Unadjusted and adjusted ordinal logistic regression models calculated odds ratio estimates and associated 95% confidence intervals for the probability of having an excellent self-rated health response versus another response. Covariates considered in the analyses included number of coal mining-related facilities nearby one's residence and employment in an occupation directly related to coal mining, as well as potential confounders age, sex, BMI, smoking status, income, and education. Results. The number of coal mining facilities near the respondent's residence was not a statistically significant predictor of self-rated health. Employment in a coal-related occupation was a statistically significant predictor of self-rated health univariably; however, after adjusting for potential confounders, it was no longer a significant predictor. Conclusions. Self-rated health does not seem to be associated with residential proximity to coal mining facilities or employment in the coal industry. Future research should consider additional measures for the impact of coal mining. PMID:26240577

Delayed Ego Strength Development in Opioid Dependent Adolescents and Young Adults.

PubMed

Abramoff, Benjamin A; Lange, Hannah L H; Matson, Steven C; Cottrill, Casey B; Bridge, Jeffrey A; Abdel-Rasoul, Mahmoud; Bonny, Andrea E

2015-01-01

Objective. To evaluate ego strengths, in the context of Erikson's framework, among adolescents and young adults diagnosed with opioid dependence as compared to non-drug using youth. Methods. Opioid dependent (n = 51) and non-drug using control (n = 31) youth completed the self-administered Psychosocial Inventory of Ego Strengths (PIES). The PIES assesses development in the framework of Erikson's ego strength stages. Multivariate linear regression modeling assessed the independent association of the primary covariate (opioid dependent versus control) as well as potential confounding variables (e.g., psychiatric comorbidities, intelligence) with total PIES score. Results. Mean total PIES score was significantly lower in opioid dependent youth (231.65 ± 30.39 opioid dependent versus 270.67 ± 30.06 control; p < 0.01). Evaluation of the PIES subscores found significant (p < 0.05) delays in all ego strength areas (hope, will, purpose, competence, fidelity, love, care, and wisdom). When adjusting for potential confounders, opioid dependence remained a significant (p < 0.001) independent predictor of total PIES score. Conclusion. Adolescents with opioid dependence demonstrated significant delays in ego strength development. A treatment approach acknowledging this delay may be needed in the counseling and treatment of adolescents with opioid dependence.

Associations among Obesity, Eating Speed, and Oral Health

PubMed Central

Sonoda, Chikanobu; Fukuda, Hideki; Kitamura, Masayasu; Hayashida, Hideaki; Kawashita, Yumiko; Furugen, Reiko; Koyama, Zenya; Saito, Toshiyuki

2018-01-01

Objective This study was conducted to understand how eating speed and oral health condition are associated with obesity in Japanese working men. Methods We studied a total of 863 men attending an annual medical checkup of the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force in Sasebo City, Japan. Participants answered a questionnaire about their eating speed, and we examined their anthropometric status in terms of BMI, waist circumference, and oral health condition, especially periodontal disease and number of functional teeth. Multivariate logistic regression analyses adjusting for potential confounding variables were performed. Results The multivariate-adjusted odds ratio for waist circumference greater than 90 cm of the ‘very fast’ group compared to the ‘slow, very slow’ group was 5.22 (95% confidence interval 1.81–15.06) after adjusting for potential confounding factors. Individuals were more likely to have waist circumference greater than 90 cm if they had a larger ‘number of missing functional teeth’ (odds ratio 1.14; 95% confidence interval 1.01–1.28) and severe periodontal disease (odds ratio 2.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.46–5.13). Conclusion Eating speed, the number of missing functional teeth, and severe periodontal disease are associated independently with larger waist circumference. PMID:29669358

The influence of depression on personality traits in patients with fibromyalgia: a case-control study.

PubMed

Santos, Daniela M; Lage, Laís V; Jabur, Eleonora K; Kaziyama, Helena H S; Iosifescu, Dan V; De Lucia, Mara Cristina S; Fráguas, Renério

2017-01-01

We developed this study to investigate the association of fibromyalgia with personality traits, controlling for depression and other potential confounders. We assessed personality traits using the Cloninger's Temperament and Character Inventory (TCI) in 78 female patients with fibromyalgia and in a control group of 78 subjects without fibromyalgia. The Mini-International Neuropsychiatric Interview was used to assess depression and anxiety diagnoses. To investigate the association between fibromyalgia and the Cloninger's Temperament and Character Inventory we performed unadjusted and adjusted analyses of covariance, using the TCI score as dependent variable and adjusting the model for depression, anxiety and for clinical and socio-demographic variables. We used a backward selection method to choose the final model. In the unadjusted analysis, fibromyalgia was associated with all personality traits, except persistency. After adjusting for depression and anxiety, patients with fibromyalgia presented decreased novelty seeking compared to controls; the differences in other personality traits were no longer significant. Novelty seeking was also correlated with the length of history of fibromyalgia and pain intensity. Decreased novelty seeking may be a personality trait associated with fibromyalgia. Depression and anxiety should be considered potential confounders in the evaluation of personality traits in this population.

Delayed Ego Strength Development in Opioid Dependent Adolescents and Young Adults

PubMed Central

Abramoff, Benjamin A.; Lange, Hannah L. H.; Matson, Steven C.; Cottrill, Casey B.; Bridge, Jeffrey A.; Abdel-Rasoul, Mahmoud; Bonny, Andrea E.

2015-01-01

Objective. To evaluate ego strengths, in the context of Erikson's framework, among adolescents and young adults diagnosed with opioid dependence as compared to non-drug using youth. Methods. Opioid dependent (n = 51) and non-drug using control (n = 31) youth completed the self-administered Psychosocial Inventory of Ego Strengths (PIES). The PIES assesses development in the framework of Erikson's ego strength stages. Multivariate linear regression modeling assessed the independent association of the primary covariate (opioid dependent versus control) as well as potential confounding variables (e.g., psychiatric comorbidities, intelligence) with total PIES score. Results. Mean total PIES score was significantly lower in opioid dependent youth (231.65 ± 30.39 opioid dependent versus 270.67 ± 30.06 control; p < 0.01). Evaluation of the PIES subscores found significant (p < 0.05) delays in all ego strength areas (hope, will, purpose, competence, fidelity, love, care, and wisdom). When adjusting for potential confounders, opioid dependence remained a significant (p < 0.001) independent predictor of total PIES score. Conclusion. Adolescents with opioid dependence demonstrated significant delays in ego strength development. A treatment approach acknowledging this delay may be needed in the counseling and treatment of adolescents with opioid dependence. PMID:26664819

Flooding and Mental Health: A Systematic Mapping Review

PubMed Central

Fernandez, Ana; Black, John; Jones, Mairwen; Wilson, Leigh; Salvador-Carulla, Luis; Astell-Burt, Thomas; Black, Deborah

2015-01-01

Background Floods are the most common type of global natural disaster. Floods have a negative impact on mental health. Comprehensive evaluation and review of the literature are lacking. Objective To systematically map and review available scientific evidence on mental health impacts of floods caused by extended periods of heavy rain in river catchments. Methods We performed a systematic mapping review of published scientific literature in five languages for mixed studies on floods and mental health. PUBMED and Web of Science were searched to identify all relevant articles from 1994 to May 2014 (no restrictions). Results The electronic search strategy identified 1331 potentially relevant papers. Finally, 83 papers met the inclusion criteria. Four broad areas are identified: i) the main mental health disorders—post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and anxiety; ii] the factors associated with mental health among those affected by floods; iii) the narratives associated with flooding, which focuses on the long-term impacts of flooding on mental health as a consequence of the secondary stressors; and iv) the management actions identified. The quantitative and qualitative studies have consistent findings. However, very few studies have used mixed methods to quantify the size of the mental health burden as well as exploration of in-depth narratives. Methodological limitations include control of potential confounders and short-term follow up. Limitations Floods following extreme events were excluded from our review. Conclusions Although the level of exposure to floods has been systematically associated with mental health problems, the paucity of longitudinal studies and lack of confounding controls precludes strong conclusions. Implications We recommend that future research in this area include mixed-method studies that are purposefully designed, using more rigorous methods. Studies should also focus on vulnerable groups and include analyses of policy and practical responses. PMID:25860572

The statistical pitfalls of the partially randomized preference design in non-blinded trials of psychological interventions.

PubMed

Gemmell, Isla; Dunn, Graham

2011-03-01

In a partially randomized preference trial (PRPT) patients with no treatment preference are allocated to groups at random, but those who express a preference receive the treatment of their choice. It has been suggested that the design can improve the external and internal validity of trials. We used computer simulation to illustrate the impact that an unmeasured confounder could have on the results and conclusions drawn from a PRPT. We generated 4000 observations ("patients") that reflected the distribution of the Beck Depression Index (DBI) in trials of depression. Half were randomly assigned to a randomized controlled trial (RCT) design and half were assigned to a PRPT design. In the RCT, "patients" were evenly split between treatment and control groups; whereas in the preference arm, to reflect patient choice, 87.5% of patients were allocated to the experimental treatment and 12.5% to the control. Unadjusted analyses of the PRPT data consistently overestimated the treatment effect and its standard error. This lead to Type I errors when the true treatment effect was small and Type II errors when the confounder effect was large. The PRPT design is not recommended as a method of establishing an unbiased estimate of treatment effect due to the potential influence of unmeasured confounders. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Nonword Repetition Task for Speakers with Misarticulations: The Syllable Repetition Task (SRT)

PubMed Central

Shriberg, Lawrence D.; Lohmeier, Heather L.; Campbell, Thomas F.; Dollaghan, Christine A.; Green, Jordan R.; Moore, Christopher A.

2010-01-01

Purpose Conceptual and methodological confounds occur when non(sense) repetition tasks are administered to speakers who do not have the target speech sounds in their phonetic inventories or who habitually misarticulate targeted speech sounds. We describe a nonword repetition task, the Syllable Repetiton Task (SRT) that eliminates this confound and report findings from three validity studies. Method Ninety-five preschool children with Speech Delay and 63 with Typical Speech, completed an assessment battery that included the Nonword Repetition Task (NRT: Dollaghan & Campbell, 1998) and the SRT. SRT stimuli include only four of the earliest occurring consonants and one early occurring vowel. Results Study 1 findings indicated that the SRT eliminated the speech confound in nonword testing with speakers who misarticulate. Study 2 findings indicated that the accuracy of the SRT to identify expressive language impairment was comparable to findings for the NRT. Study 3 findings illustrated the SRT’s potential to interrogate speech processing constraints underlying poor nonword repetition accuracy. Results supported both memorial and auditory-perceptual encoding constraints underlying nonword repetition errors in children with speech-language impairment. Conclusion The SRT appears to be a psychometrically stable and substantively informative nonword repetition task for emerging genetic and other research with speakers who misarticulate. PMID:19635944

An introduction to instrumental variables analysis: part 1.

PubMed

Bennett, Derrick A

2010-01-01

There are several examples in the medical literature where the associations of treatment effects predicted by observational studies have been refuted by evidence from subsequent large-scale randomised trials. This is because of the fact that non-experimental studies are subject to confounding - and confounding cannot be entirely eliminated even if all known confounders have been measured in the study as there may be unknown confounders. The aim of this 2-part methodological primer is to introduce an emerging methodology for estimating treatment effects using observational data in the absence of good randomised evidence known as the method of instrumental variables. Copyright © 2010 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Cardiovascular health, traffic-related air pollution and noise: are associations mutually confounded? A systematic review.

PubMed

Tétreault, Louis-François; Perron, Stéphane; Smargiassi, Audrey

2013-10-01

This review assessed the confounding effect of one traffic-related exposure (noise or air pollutants) on the association between the other exposure and cardiovascular outcomes. A systematic review was conducted with the databases Medline and Embase. The confounding effects in studies were assessed by using change in the estimate with a 10 % cutoff point. The influence on the change in the estimate of the quality of the studies, the exposure assessment methods and the correlation between road noise and air pollutions were also assessed. Nine publications were identified. For most studies, the specified confounders produced changes in estimates <10 %. The correlation between noise and pollutants, the quality of the study and of the exposure assessment do not seem to influence the confounding effects. Results from this review suggest that confounding of cardiovascular effects by noise or air pollutants is low, though with further improvements in exposure assessment, the situation may change. More studies using pollution indicators specific to road traffic are needed to properly assess if noise and air pollution are subjected to confounding.

Propensity score models in observational comparative effectiveness studies: cornerstone of design or statistical afterthought?

PubMed

Robinson, John W

2012-03-01

Propensity score models are increasingly used in observational comparative effectiveness studies to reduce confounding by covariates that are associated with both a study outcome and treatment choice. Any such potentially confounding covariate will bias estimation of the effect of treatment on the outcome, unless the distribution of that covariate is well-balanced between treatment and control groups. Constructing a subsample of treated and control subjects who are matched on estimated propensity scores is a means of achieving such balance for covariates that are included in the propensity score model. If, during study design, investigators assemble a comprehensive inventory of known and suspected potentially confounding covariates, examination of how well this inventory is covered by the chosen dataset yields an assessment of the extent of bias reduction that is possible by matching on estimated propensity scores. These considerations are explored by examining the designs of three recently published comparative effectiveness studies.

An independent component analysis confounding factor correction framework for identifying broad impact expression quantitative trait loci

PubMed Central

Ju, Jin Hyun; Crystal, Ronald G.

2017-01-01

Genome-wide expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) studies in humans have provided numerous insights into the genetics of both gene expression and complex diseases. While the majority of eQTL identified in genome-wide analyses impact a single gene, eQTL that impact many genes are particularly valuable for network modeling and disease analysis. To enable the identification of such broad impact eQTL, we introduce CONFETI: Confounding Factor Estimation Through Independent component analysis. CONFETI is designed to address two conflicting issues when searching for broad impact eQTL: the need to account for non-genetic confounding factors that can lower the power of the analysis or produce broad impact eQTL false positives, and the tendency of methods that account for confounding factors to model broad impact eQTL as non-genetic variation. The key advance of the CONFETI framework is the use of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to identify variation likely caused by broad impact eQTL when constructing the sample covariance matrix used for the random effect in a mixed model. We show that CONFETI has better performance than other mixed model confounding factor methods when considering broad impact eQTL recovery from synthetic data. We also used the CONFETI framework and these same confounding factor methods to identify eQTL that replicate between matched twin pair datasets in the Multiple Tissue Human Expression Resource (MuTHER), the Depression Genes Networks study (DGN), the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA), and multiple tissue types in the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) consortium. These analyses identified both cis-eQTL and trans-eQTL impacting individual genes, and CONFETI had better or comparable performance to other mixed model confounding factor analysis methods when identifying such eQTL. In these analyses, we were able to identify and replicate a few broad impact eQTL although the overall number was small even when applying CONFETI. In light of these results, we discuss the broad impact eQTL that have been previously reported from the analysis of human data and suggest that considerable caution should be exercised when making biological inferences based on these reported eQTL. PMID:28505156

An independent component analysis confounding factor correction framework for identifying broad impact expression quantitative trait loci.

PubMed

Ju, Jin Hyun; Shenoy, Sushila A; Crystal, Ronald G; Mezey, Jason G

2017-05-01

Genome-wide expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) studies in humans have provided numerous insights into the genetics of both gene expression and complex diseases. While the majority of eQTL identified in genome-wide analyses impact a single gene, eQTL that impact many genes are particularly valuable for network modeling and disease analysis. To enable the identification of such broad impact eQTL, we introduce CONFETI: Confounding Factor Estimation Through Independent component analysis. CONFETI is designed to address two conflicting issues when searching for broad impact eQTL: the need to account for non-genetic confounding factors that can lower the power of the analysis or produce broad impact eQTL false positives, and the tendency of methods that account for confounding factors to model broad impact eQTL as non-genetic variation. The key advance of the CONFETI framework is the use of Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to identify variation likely caused by broad impact eQTL when constructing the sample covariance matrix used for the random effect in a mixed model. We show that CONFETI has better performance than other mixed model confounding factor methods when considering broad impact eQTL recovery from synthetic data. We also used the CONFETI framework and these same confounding factor methods to identify eQTL that replicate between matched twin pair datasets in the Multiple Tissue Human Expression Resource (MuTHER), the Depression Genes Networks study (DGN), the Netherlands Study of Depression and Anxiety (NESDA), and multiple tissue types in the Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) consortium. These analyses identified both cis-eQTL and trans-eQTL impacting individual genes, and CONFETI had better or comparable performance to other mixed model confounding factor analysis methods when identifying such eQTL. In these analyses, we were able to identify and replicate a few broad impact eQTL although the overall number was small even when applying CONFETI. In light of these results, we discuss the broad impact eQTL that have been previously reported from the analysis of human data and suggest that considerable caution should be exercised when making biological inferences based on these reported eQTL.

Is the association between posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms and poor health due to a common familial or genetic factor?

PubMed Central

Roy-Byrne, Peter P.; Noonan, Carolyn; Afari, Niloofar; Buchwald, Dedra; Goldberg, Jack

2010-01-01

Objective The objective of this study was to identify genetic, familial and environmental contributions to the association between posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms and poor health. Methods A community sample of 1852 twin pairs was assessed for symptoms of PTSD [with the Impact of Events Scale (IES)] and self-reported global health status using a single five-level question. An ordinal logistic regression model estimated odds ratio/s (OR) for the association between PTSD and health status. Within-pair analysis assessed confounding by familial and genetic factors and adjusted for the possible confounding influence of age, sex, race, education and self-reported physician diagnosis of depression. Results The IES was strongly and significantly associated with self-reported health [OR = 1.8; 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.5–2.2; highest quartile vs. lowest quartile]. This association remained significant in within-pair analysis (OR = 1.3; 95% CI=1.0–1.7), but after further adjustment for sociodemographics and depression, it was no longer significant (Ptrend=.17). Separate analysis by zygosity did not show differential effect in monozygotic or dizygotic pairs. Conclusion These findings suggest that the association between PTSD symptoms and poor health is, in part, due to familial confounding and sociodemographic factors. Little evidence of confounding by genetic factors was found. These findings suggest that early prevention efforts would have the greatest potential for improving poor health in PTSD-prone patients, whereas later intervention efforts directed at treating PTSD may have a more limited impact on improving poor health. PMID:16950376

Terminal illness and the increased mortality risk of conventional antipsychotics in observational studies: a systematic review.

PubMed

Luijendijk, Hendrika J; de Bruin, Niels C; Hulshof, Tessa A; Koolman, Xander

2016-02-01

Numerous large observational studies have shown an increased risk of mortality in elderly users of conventional antipsychotics. Health authorities have warned against use of these drugs. However, terminal illness is a potentially strong confounder of the observational findings. So, the objective of this study was to systematically assess whether terminal illness may have biased the observational association between conventional antipsychotics and risk of mortality in elderly patients. Studies were searched in PubMed, CINAHL, Embase, the references of selected studies and articles referring to selected studies (Web of Science). Inclusion criteria were (i) observational studies that estimated (ii) the risk of all-cause mortality in (iii) new elderly users of (iv) conventional antipsychotics compared with atypical antipsychotics or no use. Two investigators assessed the characteristics of the exposure and reference groups, main results, measured confounders and methods used to adjust for unmeasured confounders. We identified 21 studies. All studies were based on administrative medical and pharmaceutical databases. Sicker and older patients received conventional antipsychotics more often than new antipsychotics. The risk of dying was especially high in the first month of use, and when haloperidol was administered per injection or in high doses. Terminal illness was not measured in any study. Instrumental variables that were used were also confounded by terminal illness. We conclude that terminal illness has not been adjusted for in observational studies that reported an increased risk of mortality risk in elderly users of conventional antipsychotics. As the validity of the evidence is questionable, so is the warning based on it. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Measuring the surgical 'learning curve': methods, variables and competency.

PubMed

Khan, Nuzhath; Abboudi, Hamid; Khan, Mohammed Shamim; Dasgupta, Prokar; Ahmed, Kamran

2014-03-01

To describe how learning curves are measured and what procedural variables are used to establish a 'learning curve' (LC). To assess whether LCs are a valuable measure of competency. A review of the surgical literature pertaining to LCs was conducted using the Medline and OVID databases. Variables should be fully defined and when possible, patient-specific variables should be used. Trainee's prior experience and level of supervision should be quantified; the case mix and complexity should ideally be constant. Logistic regression may be used to control for confounding variables. Ideally, a learning plateau should reach a predefined/expert-derived competency level, which should be fully defined. When the group splitting method is used, smaller cohorts should be used in order to narrow the range of the LC. Simulation technology and competence-based objective assessments may be used in training and assessment in LC studies. Measuring the surgical LC has potential benefits for patient safety and surgical education. However, standardisation in the methods and variables used to measure LCs is required. Confounding variables, such as participant's prior experience, case mix, difficulty of procedures and level of supervision, should be controlled. Competency and expert performance should be fully defined. © 2013 The Authors. BJU International © 2013 BJU International.

Does consideration of larger study areas yield more accurate estimates of air pollution health effects? An illustration of the bias-variance trade-off in air pollution epidemiology.

PubMed

Pedersen, Marie; Siroux, Valérie; Pin, Isabelle; Charles, Marie Aline; Forhan, Anne; Hulin, Agnés; Galineau, Julien; Lepeule, Johanna; Giorgis-Allemand, Lise; Sunyer, Jordi; Annesi-Maesano, Isabella; Slama, Rémy

2013-10-01

Spatially-resolved air pollution models can be developed in large areas. The resulting increased exposure contrasts and population size offer opportunities to better characterize the effect of atmospheric pollutants on respiratory health. However the heterogeneity of these areas may also enhance the potential for confounding. We aimed to discuss some analytical approaches to handle this trade-off. We modeled NO2 and PM10 concentrations at the home addresses of 1082 pregnant mothers from EDEN cohort living in and around urban areas, using ADMS dispersion model. Simulations were performed to identify the best strategy to limit confounding by unmeasured factors varying with area type. We examined the relation between modeled concentrations and respiratory health in infants using regression models with and without adjustment or interaction terms with area type. Simulations indicated that adjustment for area limited the bias due to unmeasured confounders varying with area at the costs of a slight decrease in statistical power. In our cohort, rural and urban areas differed for air pollution levels and for many factors associated with respiratory health and exposure. Area tended to modify effect measures of air pollution on respiratory health. Increasing the size of the study area also increases the potential for residual confounding. Our simulations suggest that adjusting for type of area is a good option to limit residual confounding due to area-associated factors without restricting the area size. Other statistical approaches developed in the field of spatial epidemiology are an alternative to control for poorly-measured spatially-varying confounders. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential confounding in the association between short birth intervals and increased neonatal, infant, and child mortality

PubMed Central

Perin, Jamie; Walker, Neff

2015-01-01

Background Recent steep declines in child mortality have been attributed in part to increased use of contraceptives and the resulting change in fertility behaviour, including an increase in the time between births. Previous observational studies have documented strong associations between short birth spacing and an increase in the risk of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality, compared to births with longer preceding birth intervals. In this analysis, we compare two methods to estimate the association between short birth intervals and mortality risk to better inform modelling efforts linking family planning and mortality in children. Objectives Our goal was to estimate the mortality risk for neonates, infants, and young children by preceding birth space using household survey data, controlling for mother-level factors and to compare the results to those from previous analyses with survey data. Design We assessed the potential for confounding when estimating the relative mortality risk by preceding birth interval and estimated mortality risk by birth interval in four categories: less than 18 months, 18–23 months, 24–35 months, and 36 months or longer. We estimated the relative risks among women who were 35 and older at the time of the survey with two methods: in a Cox proportional hazards regression adjusting for potential confounders and also by stratifying Cox regression by mother, to control for all factors that remain constant over a woman's childbearing years. We estimated the overall effects for birth spacing in a meta-analysis with random survey effects. Results We identified several factors known for their associations with neonatal, infant, and child mortality that are also associated with preceding birth interval. When estimating the effect of birth spacing on mortality, we found that regression adjustment for these factors does not substantially change the risk ratio for short birth intervals compared to an unadjusted mortality ratio. For birth intervals less than 18 months, standard regression adjustment for confounding factors estimated a risk ratio for neonatal mortality of 2.28 (95% confidence interval: 2.18–2.37). This same effect estimated within mother is 1.57 (95% confidence interval: 1.52–1.63), a decline of almost one-third in the effect on neonatal mortality. Conclusions Neonatal, infant, and child mortality are strongly and significantly related to preceding birth interval, where births within a short interval of time after the previous birth have increased mortality. Previous analyses have demonstrated this relationship on average across all births; however, women who have short spaces between births are different from women with long spaces. Among women 35 years and older where a comparison of birth spaces within mother is possible, we find a much reduced although still significant effect of short birth spaces on child mortality. PMID:26562139

Potential confounding in the association between short birth intervals and increased neonatal, infant, and child mortality.

PubMed

Perin, Jamie; Walker, Neff

2015-01-01

Recent steep declines in child mortality have been attributed in part to increased use of contraceptives and the resulting change in fertility behaviour, including an increase in the time between births. Previous observational studies have documented strong associations between short birth spacing and an increase in the risk of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality, compared to births with longer preceding birth intervals. In this analysis, we compare two methods to estimate the association between short birth intervals and mortality risk to better inform modelling efforts linking family planning and mortality in children. Our goal was to estimate the mortality risk for neonates, infants, and young children by preceding birth space using household survey data, controlling for mother-level factors and to compare the results to those from previous analyses with survey data. We assessed the potential for confounding when estimating the relative mortality risk by preceding birth interval and estimated mortality risk by birth interval in four categories: less than 18 months, 18-23 months, 24-35 months, and 36 months or longer. We estimated the relative risks among women who were 35 and older at the time of the survey with two methods: in a Cox proportional hazards regression adjusting for potential confounders and also by stratifying Cox regression by mother, to control for all factors that remain constant over a woman's childbearing years. We estimated the overall effects for birth spacing in a meta-analysis with random survey effects. We identified several factors known for their associations with neonatal, infant, and child mortality that are also associated with preceding birth interval. When estimating the effect of birth spacing on mortality, we found that regression adjustment for these factors does not substantially change the risk ratio for short birth intervals compared to an unadjusted mortality ratio. For birth intervals less than 18 months, standard regression adjustment for confounding factors estimated a risk ratio for neonatal mortality of 2.28 (95% confidence interval: 2.18-2.37). This same effect estimated within mother is 1.57 (95% confidence interval: 1.52-1.63), a decline of almost one-third in the effect on neonatal mortality. Neonatal, infant, and child mortality are strongly and significantly related to preceding birth interval, where births within a short interval of time after the previous birth have increased mortality. Previous analyses have demonstrated this relationship on average across all births; however, women who have short spaces between births are different from women with long spaces. Among women 35 years and older where a comparison of birth spaces within mother is possible, we find a much reduced although still significant effect of short birth spaces on child mortality.

Enhancing the estimation of blood pressure using pulse arrival time and two confounding factors.

PubMed

Baek, Hyun Jae; Kim, Ko Keun; Kim, Jung Soo; Lee, Boreom; Park, Kwang Suk

2010-02-01

A new method of blood pressure (BP) estimation using multiple regression with pulse arrival time (PAT) and two confounding factors was evaluated in clinical and unconstrained monitoring situations. For the first analysis with clinical data, electrocardiogram (ECG), photoplethysmogram (PPG) and invasive BP signals were obtained by a conventional patient monitoring device during surgery. In the second analysis, ECG, PPG and non-invasive BP were measured using systems developed to obtain data under conditions in which the subject was not constrained. To enhance the performance of BP estimation methods, heart rate (HR) and arterial stiffness were considered as confounding factors in regression analysis. The PAT and HR were easily extracted from ECG and PPG signals. For arterial stiffness, the duration from the maximum derivative point to the maximum of the dicrotic notch in the PPG signal, a parameter called TDB, was employed. In two experiments that normally cause BP variation, the correlation between measured BP and the estimated BP was investigated. Multiple-regression analysis with the two confounding factors improved correlation coefficients for diastolic blood pressure and systolic blood pressure to acceptable confidence levels, compared to existing methods that consider PAT only. In addition, reproducibility for the proposed method was determined using constructed test sets. Our results demonstrate that non-invasive, non-intrusive BP estimation can be obtained using methods that can be applied in both clinical and daily healthcare situations.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies comparing mortality rates of private for-profit and private not-for-profit hospitals

PubMed Central

Devereaux, P.J.; Choi, Peter T.L.; Lacchetti, Christina; Weaver, Bruce; Schünemann, Holger J.; Haines, Ted; Lavis, John N.; Grant, Brydon J.B.; Haslam, David R.S.; Bhandari, Mohit; Sullivan, Terrence; Cook, Deborah J.; Walter, Stephen D.; Meade, Maureen; Khan, Humaira; Bhatnagar, Neera; Guyatt, Gordon H.

2002-01-01

Background Canadians are engaged in an intense debate about the relative merits of private for-profit versus private not-for-profit health care delivery. To inform this debate, we undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies comparing the mortality rates of private for-profit hospitals and those of private not-for-profit hospitals. Methods We identified studies through an electronic search of 11 bibliographical databases, our own files, consultation with experts, reference lists, PubMed and SciSearch. We masked the study results before determining study eligibility. Our eligibility criteria included observational studies or randomized controlled trials that compared private for-profit and private not-for-profit hospitals. We excluded studies that evaluated mortality rates in hospitals with a particular profit status that subsequently converted to the other profit status. For each study, we calculated a relative risk of mortality for private for-profit hospitals relative to private not-for-profit hospitals and pooled the studies of adult populations that included adjustment for potential confounders (e.g., teaching status, severity of illness) using a random effects model. Results Fifteen observational studies, involving more than 26 000 hospitals and 38 million patients, fulfilled the eligibility criteria. In the studies of adult populations, with adjustment for potential confounders, private for-profit hospitals were associated with an increased risk of death (relative risk [RR] 1.020, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.003–1.038; p = 0.02). The one perinatal study with adjustment for potential confounders also showed an increased risk of death in private for-profit hospitals (RR 1.095, 95% CI 1.050–1.141; p < 0.0001). Interpretation Our meta-analysis suggests that private for-profit ownership of hospitals, in comparison with private not-for-profit ownership, results in a higher risk of death for patients. PMID:12054406

Hepatic fat quantification: a prospective comparison of magnetic resonance spectroscopy and analysis methods for chemical-shift gradient echo magnetic resonance imaging with histologic assessment as the reference standard.

PubMed

Kang, Bo-Kyeong; Yu, Eun Sil; Lee, Seung Soo; Lee, Youngjoo; Kim, Namkug; Sirlin, Claude B; Cho, Eun Yoon; Yeom, Suk Keu; Byun, Jae Ho; Park, Seong Ho; Lee, Moon-Gyu

2012-06-01

The aims of this study were to assess the confounding effects of hepatic iron deposition, inflammation, and fibrosis on hepatic steatosis (HS) evaluation by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) and to assess the accuracies of MRI and MRS for HS evaluation, using histology as the reference standard. In this institutional review board-approved prospective study, 56 patients gave informed consents and underwent chemical-shift MRI and MRS of the liver on a 1.5-T magnetic resonance scanner. To estimate MRI fat fraction (FF), 4 analysis methods were used (dual-echo, triple-echo, multiecho, and multi-interference), and MRS FF was calculated with T2 correction. Degrees of HS, iron deposition, inflammation, and fibrosis were analyzed in liver resection (n = 37) and biopsy (n = 19) specimens. The confounding effects of histology on fat quantification were assessed by multiple linear regression analysis. Using the histologic degree of HS as the reference standard, the accuracies of each method in estimating HS and diagnosing an HS of 5% or greater were determined by linear regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses. Iron deposition significantly confounded estimations of FF by the dual-echo (P < 0.001) and triple-echo (P = 0.033) methods, whereas no histologic feature confounded the multiecho and multi-interference methods or MRS. The MRS (r = 0.95) showed the strongest correlation with histologic degree of HS, followed by the multiecho (r = 0.92), multi-interference (r = 0.91), triple-echo (r = 0.90), and dual-echo (r = 0.85) methods. For diagnosing HS, the areas under the curve tended to be higher for MRS (0.96) and the multiecho (0.95), multi-interference (0.95), and triple-echo (0.95) methods than for the dual-echo method (0.88) (P ≥ 0.13). The multiecho and multi-interference MRI methods and MRS can accurately quantify hepatic fat, with coexisting histologic abnormalities having no confounding effects.

Phenotype definition and development--contributions from Group 7.

PubMed

Wilcox, Marsha A; Paterson, Andrew D

2009-01-01

The papers in Genetic Analysis Workshop 16 Group 7 covered a wide range of topics. The effects of confounder misclassification and selection bias on association results were examined by one group. Another focused on bias introduced by various methods of accounting for treatment effects. Two groups used related methods to derive phenotypic traits. They used different analytic strategies for genetic associations with non-overlapping results (but because they used different sets of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and significance criteria, this is not surprising). Another group relied on the well-characterized definition of type 2 diabetes to show benefits of a novel predictive test. Transmission-ratio distortion was the focus of another paper. The results were extended to show a potential secondary benefit of the test to identify potentially mis-called SNPs. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Non-alcoholic beverage and caffeine consumption and mortality: the Leisure World Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Paganini-Hill, Annlia; Kawas, Claudia H; Corrada, María M

2007-01-01

Objective To examine the effects of non-alcoholic beverage and caffeine consumption on all-cause mortality in older adults. Methods The Leisure World Cohort Study is a prospective study of residents of a California retirement community. A baseline postal health survey included details on coffee, tea, milk, soft drink, and chocolate consumption. Participants were followed for 23 years (1981–2004). Risk ratios (RRs) of death were calculated using Cox regression for 8644 women and 4980 men (median age at entry, 74 years) and adjusted for age, gender and multiple potential confounders. Results Caffeine consumption exhibited a U-shaped mortality curve. Moderate caffeine consumers had a significantly reduced risk of death (multivariable-adjusted RR=0.94, 95% CI: 0.90, 0.99 for 100–199 mg/day and RR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.85, 0.94 for 200–399 mg/day compared with those consuming <50 mg/day). Individuals who drank more than 1 can/week of artificially sweetened (but not sugar-sweetened) soft drink (cola and other) had a 8% increased risk (95% CI: 1.01–1.16). Neither milk nor tea had a significant effect on mortality after multivariable adjustment. Conclusions Moderate caffeine consumption appeared beneficial in risking risk of death. Attenuation in the observed associations between mortality and intake of tea and milk with adjustment for potential confounders suggests that such consumption identifies those with other mortality-associated lifestyle and health risks. The increased death risk with consumption of artificially sweetened, but not sugar-sweetened, soft drinks suggests an effect of the sweetener rather than other components of the soft drinks, although residual confounding remains a possibility. PMID:17275898

Investigation of pH and temperature on optical rotatory dispersion for noninvasive glucose monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baba, Justin S.; Meledeo, Adam; Cameron, B. D.; Cote, Gerard L.

2001-06-01

The widespread occurrence of diabetes mellitus and the severity of its associated complications necessitate the development of non-invasive blood glucose measurement devices in an attempt to improve treatment regimens and curb the complications associated with this disease. One method showing promise in this endeavor utilizes optical polarimetry to monitor blood glucose levels indirectly by measuring glucose rotation of polarized light, which is a direct indication of glucose concentration, in the aqueous humor of the eye. The presence of other optically active (chiral) components in the aqueous humor of the eye have the potential to confound the glucose measurement of optical rotation when using a single wavelength polarimeter. Thus, this has led to the recent investigation of multispectral polarimetric systems which have the potential to enable the removal of confounder contributions to the net observed optical rotation, therefore, increasing glucose specificity and reducing glucose prediction errors. Such polarimetric systems take advantage of the uniqueness in the rotation of polarized light, as a function of wavelength, by the chiral molecule of interest. This is commonly referred to as the optical rotatory dispersion (ORD) spectra of the chiral molecule. ORD characterization of the chiral molecules within the aqueous humor is necessary for determining the optimum number of wavelengths needed to reduce glucose prediction errors; however, this information is often only given at the sodium-D line (589 nm) in the literature. This report describes the system we designed and built to measure ORD spectra for glucose and for albumin, the main optical confounder within the aqueous humor, as well as our investigation of the effects of temperature and pH on these ORD spectra.

Alcohol Use in Adolescence and Later Working Memory: Findings From a Large Population-Based Birth Cohort

PubMed Central

Field, Matt; Gage, Suzanne; Hammerton, Gemma; Heron, Jon; Hickman, Matt; Munafò, Marcus R

2018-01-01

Abstract Aims The study aimed to examine the association between adolescent alcohol use and working memory (WM) using a large population sample. Methods Data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children were used to investigate the association between alcohol use at age 15 years and WM 3 years later, assessed using the N-back task (N ~ 3300). A three-category ordinal variable captured mutually exclusive alcohol groupings ranging in order of severity (i.e. low alcohol users, frequent drinkers and frequent/binge drinkers). Differential dropout was accounted for using multiple imputation and inverse probability weighting. Adjustment was made for potential confounders. Results There was evidence of an association between frequent/binge drinking (compared to the low alcohol group) and poorer performance on the 3-back task after adjusting for sociodemographic confounding variables, WM at age 11 years, and experience of a head injury/unconsciousness before age 11 years (β = −0.23, 95% CI = −0.37 to −0.09, P = 0.001). However, this association was attenuated (β = −0.12, 95% CI = −0.27 to 0.03, P = 0.11) when further adjusted for baseline measures of weekly cigarette tobacco and cannabis use. Weaker associations were found for the less demanding 2-back task. We found no evidence to suggest frequent drinking was associated with performance on either task. Conclusions We found weak evidence of an association between sustained heavy alcohol use in mid-adolescence and impaired WM 3 years later. Although we cannot fully rule out the possibility of reverse causation, several potential confounding variables were included to address the directionality of the relationship between WM and alcohol use problems. PMID:29329371

Potentially inappropriate prescribing according to STOPP and START and adverse outcomes in community‐dwelling older people: a prospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Bennett, Kathleen; Cahir, Caitriona; Kenny, Rose Anne; Fahey, Tom

2016-01-01

Aims This study aims to determine if potentially inappropriate prescribing (PIP) is associated with increased healthcare utilization, functional decline and reduced quality of life (QoL) in a community‐dwelling older cohort. Method This prospective cohort study included participants aged ≥65 years from The Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA) with linked administrative pharmacy claims data who were followed up after 2 years. PIP was defined by the Screening Tool for Older Persons Prescriptions (STOPP) and Screening Tool to Alert doctors to Right Treatment (START). The association with number of emergency department (ED) visits and GP visits reported over 12 months was analyzed using multivariate negative binomial regression adjusting for confounders. Marginal structural models investigated the presence of time‐dependent confounding. Results Of participants followed up (n = 1753), PIP was detected in 57% by STOPP and 41.8% by START, 21.7% reported an ED visit and 96.1% visited a GP (median 4, IQR 2.5–6). Those with any STOPP criterion had higher rates of ED visits (adjusted incident rate ratio (IRR) 1.30, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02, 1.66) and GP visits (IRR 1.15, 95%CI 1.06, 1.24). Patients with two or more START criteria had significantly more ED visits (IRR 1.45, 95%CI 1.03, 2.04) and GP visits (IRR 1.13, 95%CI 1.01, 1.27) than people with no criteria. Adjusting for time‐dependent confounding did not affect the findings. Conclusions Both STOPP and START were independently associated with increased healthcare utilization and START was also related to functional decline and QoL. Optimizing prescribing to reduce PIP may provide an improvement in patient outcomes. PMID:27136457

Real-world effectiveness of 8 weeks treatment with ledipasvir/sofosbuvir in chronic hepatitis C.

PubMed

Buggisch, Peter; Zeuzem, Stefan

2018-05-11

We thank Ojha and Steyerberg for making a good point. Indeed, defining analyses populations of real-life observational studies as ITT or PP is problematic as this wording may suggest a higher comparability to clinical trials as is adequate. In principle, even refined methods for adjusting confounders and minimizing bias cannot fully resolve the inherent problem of confounders in such trials. In our paper the wording (ITT and PP) was chosen for comparability with similar previous observational studies (e.g. Zeng et al) and a lot of effort was made to make the definitions transparent by illustrating them in a Figure and mentioning them several times in the article. Furthermore, the results were carefully discussed and, overall, highly comparable with those from clinical trials. Therefore, potential overestimation of sustained response rates as illustrated and discussed in the letter by Ojha and Steyerberg seems to be a limited problem in our article about this real world data. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Association between age associated cognitive decline and health related quality of life among Iranian older individuals.

PubMed

Kazazi, Leila; Foroughan, Mahshid; Nejati, Vahid; Shati, Mohsen

2018-04-01

Age associated cognitive decline or normal cognitive aging is related with lower levels of functioning in real life, and may interfere with maintaining independence and health related quality of life (HRQL). In this study, health related quality of life and cognitive function in community-dwelling older adults were evaluated with the aim of exploring the association between them by adjusting for potential confounders. This cross-sectional study, was implemented on 425 community-dwelling older adults aged 60 and over, between August 2016 and October 2016 in health centers of the municipality of Tehran, Iran, using Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) to assess cognitive function and Short Form-36 scales (SF-36) to assess HRQL. The relation between HRQL and cognitive function was evaluated by Pearson's correlation coefficient, and the impact of cognitive function on HRQL adjusted for potential confounders was estimated by linear regression model. All analyses were done using SPSS, version 22.0. A positive significant correlation between cognitive function and quality of life (r=0.434; p<0.001) and its dimensions was observed. Two variables of educational level (B=2.704; 95% CI: 2.09 to 3.30; p<0.001) and depression (B=2.554; 95% CI: 2.00 to 3.10; p<0.001) were assumed as potential confounder by changing effect measure after entering the model. After adjusting for potential confounders in regression model, the association between MMSE scores and quality of life persisted (B=2.417; 95% CI: 1.86 to 2.96; p<0.001). The results indicate that cognitive function was associated with HRQL in older adults with age associated cognitive function. Two variables of educational level and depression can affect the relation between cognitive decline and HRQL.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

PubMed

Hefley, Trevor J; Hooten, Mevin B; Drake, John M; Russell, Robin E; Walsh, Daniel P

2016-11-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Drake, John M.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.

2016-01-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time.

Mitochondrial genetic haplogroups and incident obesity: a longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Veronese, Nicola; Stubbs, Brendon; Koyanagi, Ai; Vaona, Alberto; Demurtas, Jacopo; Schofield, Patricia; Thompson, Trevor; Maggi, Stefania

2018-04-01

A small number of case-control studies have suggested that mitochondrial haplogroups could be associated with obesity. We examined whether obesity risk was influenced by mitochondrial haplogroup in a large North American cohort across an 8-year period. We conducted a longitudinal cohort study including individuals from the Osteoarthritis Initiative. Mitochondrial haplogroups were determined by sequencing and PCR-RFLP techniques using this nomenclature: HV, JT, KU, IWX, and super HV/others. The strength of the association between mitochondrial haplogroups and incident obesity was quantified with hazard ratios (HRs), adjusted for potential confounders using a Cox's regression analysis. Overall, 2342 non-obese Caucasian participants (56.7% women) with a mean ± SD age of 62.0 ± 9.5 years at baseline were included. During a median follow-up of 8 years, 334 individuals ( = 14.3% of baseline population) became obese. After adjusting for nine potential confounders, the haplogroups IWX carried a significant 48% higher risk of obesity (HR = 1.48; 95% CI: 1.02-2.39) compared to the HV haplotype (the most frequent type). Only the presence of the IWX haplogroups appears to be linked to increased obesity risk, independent of potential baseline confounders. Future cohort studies are needed to confirm these findings and to determine potential underlying mechanisms.

Single passive leg movement-induced hyperemia: a simple vascular function assessment without a chronotropic response.

PubMed

Venturelli, Massimo; Layec, Gwenael; Trinity, Joel; Hart, Corey R; Broxterman, Ryan M; Richardson, Russell S

2017-01-01

Passive leg movement (PLM)-induced hyperemia is a novel approach to assess vascular function, with a potential clinical role. However, in some instances, the varying chronotropic response induced by PLM has been proposed to be a potentially confounding factor. Therefore, we simplified and modified the PLM model to require just a single PLM (sPLM), an approach that may evoke a peripheral hemodynamic response, allowing a vascular function assessment, but at the same time minimizing central responses. To both characterize and assess the utility of sPLM, in 12 healthy subjects, we measured heart rate (HR), stroke volume, cardiac output (CO), mean arterial pressure (MAP), leg blood flow (LBF), and calculated leg vascular conductance (LVC) during both standard PLM, consisting of passive knee flexion and extension performed at 1 Hz for 60 s, and sPLM, consisting of only a single passive knee flexion and extension over 1 s. During PLM, MAP transiently decreased (5 ± 1 mmHg), whereas both HR and CO increased from baseline (6.0 ± 1.1 beats/min, and 0.8 ± 0.01 l/min, respectively). Following sPLM, MAP fell similarly (5 ± 2 mmHg; P = 0.8), but neither HR nor CO responses were identifiable. The peak LBF and LVC response was similar for PLM (993 ± 189 ml/min; 11.9 ± 1.5 ml·min -1 ·mmHg -1 , respectively) and sPLM (878 ± 119 ml/min; 10.9 ± 1.6 ml·min -1 ·mmHg -1 , respectively). Thus sPLM represents a variant of the PLM approach to assess vascular function that is more easily performed and evokes a peripheral stimulus that induces a significant hyperemia, but does not generate a potentially confounding, chronotropic response, which may make sPLM more useful clinically. Using the single passive leg movement (PLM) technique, a variant of the vascular function assessment PLM, we have identified a novel peripheral vascular assessment method that is more easily performed than PLM, which, by not evoking potentially confounding central hemodynamic responses, may be more useful clinically.

Gene × environment interaction studies have not properly controlled for potential confounders: the problem and the (simple) solution.

PubMed

Keller, Matthew C

2014-01-01

Candidate gene × environment (G × E) interaction research tests the hypothesis that the effects of some environmental variable (e.g., childhood maltreatment) on some outcome measure (e.g., depression) depend on a particular genetic polymorphism. Because this research is inherently nonexperimental, investigators have been rightly concerned that detected interactions could be driven by confounders (e.g., ethnicity, gender, age, socioeconomic status) rather than by the specified genetic or environmental variables per se. In an attempt to eliminate such alternative explanations for detected G × E interactions, investigators routinely enter the potential confounders as covariates in general linear models. However, this practice does not control for the effects these variables might have on the G × E interaction. Rather, to properly control for confounders, researchers need to enter the covariate × environment and the covariate × gene interaction terms in the same model that tests the G × E term. In this manuscript, I demonstrate this point analytically and show that the practice of improperly controlling for covariates is the norm in the G × E interaction literature to date. Thus, many alternative explanations for G × E findings that investigators had thought were eliminated have not been. © 2013 Society of Biological Psychiatry Published by Society of Biological Psychiatry All rights reserved.

Flooding and mental health: a systematic mapping review.

PubMed

Fernandez, Ana; Black, John; Jones, Mairwen; Wilson, Leigh; Salvador-Carulla, Luis; Astell-Burt, Thomas; Black, Deborah

2015-01-01

Floods are the most common type of global natural disaster. Floods have a negative impact on mental health. Comprehensive evaluation and review of the literature are lacking. To systematically map and review available scientific evidence on mental health impacts of floods caused by extended periods of heavy rain in river catchments. We performed a systematic mapping review of published scientific literature in five languages for mixed studies on floods and mental health. PUBMED and Web of Science were searched to identify all relevant articles from 1994 to May 2014 (no restrictions). The electronic search strategy identified 1331 potentially relevant papers. Finally, 83 papers met the inclusion criteria. Four broad areas are identified: i) the main mental health disorders-post-traumatic stress disorder, depression and anxiety; ii] the factors associated with mental health among those affected by floods; iii) the narratives associated with flooding, which focuses on the long-term impacts of flooding on mental health as a consequence of the secondary stressors; and iv) the management actions identified. The quantitative and qualitative studies have consistent findings. However, very few studies have used mixed methods to quantify the size of the mental health burden as well as exploration of in-depth narratives. Methodological limitations include control of potential confounders and short-term follow up. Floods following extreme events were excluded from our review. Although the level of exposure to floods has been systematically associated with mental health problems, the paucity of longitudinal studies and lack of confounding controls precludes strong conclusions. We recommend that future research in this area include mixed-method studies that are purposefully designed, using more rigorous methods. Studies should also focus on vulnerable groups and include analyses of policy and practical responses.

Food preparation methods, drinking water source, and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in the high-risk area of Golestan, Northeast Iran.

PubMed

Golozar, Asieh; Etemadi, Arash; Kamangar, Farin; Fazeltabar Malekshah, Akbar; Islami, Farhad; Nasrollahzadeh, Dariush; Abedi-Ardekani, Behnoosh; Khoshnia, Masoud; Pourshams, Akram; Semnani, Shahriar; Marjani, Haji Amin; Shakeri, Ramin; Sotoudeh, Masoud; Brennan, Paul; Taylor, Philip; Boffetta, Paolo; Abnet, Christian; Dawsey, Sanford; Malekzadeh, Reza

2016-03-01

Cooking practices and water sources have been associated with an increased risk of cancer, mainly through exposure to carcinogens such as heterocyclic amines, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and nitrates. Using data from the Golestan case-control study, carried out between 2003 and 2007 in a high-risk region for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), we sought to investigate the association between food preparation and drinking water sources and ESCC. Information on food preparation methods, sources of drinking water, and dietary habits was gathered from 300 cases and 571 controls matched individually for age, sex, and neighborhood using a structured questionnaire and a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. Multivariate conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for potential confounders and other known risk factors including socioeconomic status and smoking. More than 95% of the participants reported eating meat, mostly red meat. Red meat consumption above the 75th percentile increased the odds of ESCC by 2.82-fold (95% CI: 1.21-6.57). Fish intake was associated with a significant 68% decrease in ESCC odds (26%, 86%). Among meat eaters, ORs (95% CI) for frying meat (red or white) and fish were 3.34 (1.32-8.45) and 2.62 (1.24-5.5). Drinking unpiped water increased ESCC odds by 4.25 times (2.23-8.11). The OR for each 10-year increase in the duration of drinking unpiped water was 1.47 (1.22-1.78). Our results suggest roles for red meat intake, drinking water source, and food preparation methods in ESCC, even after adjusting for a large number of potential confounders.

Why does early sexual intercourse predict subsequent maladjustment? Exploring potential familial confounds.

PubMed

Donahue, Kelly L; Lichtenstein, Paul; Långström, Niklas; D'Onofrio, Brian M

2013-02-01

Previous studies have found an association between early age at first sexual intercourse and subsequent psychosocial maladjustment. Using a quasi-experimental approach, we examined the extent to which this observed association may be due to familial confounds not explored in prior research. Using a population-based cohort of Swedish adult twins (ages 19-47; N = 12,126), we examined the nature of the association between early sexual intercourse (i.e., first intercourse occurring before age 16) and various outcomes reflecting psychosocial health, including substance use, depression, criminal convictions, and adolescent childbearing. We used two methods--discordant-twin analyses and bivariate twin modeling--to estimate the extent to which genetic and environmental confounds explained observed associations. Individuals who engaged in early intercourse were at greater risk for most of the adverse psychosocial health outcomes measured in this study. However, twin pairs discordant for engaging in early intercourse did not differ significantly in their risk for psychosocial maladjustment. Our results indicated that early age at first sexual intercourse and subsequent psychosocial maladjustment may be associated because of familial factors shared by twins. Early intercourse may be associated with poor psychosocial health largely due to shared familial influences rather than through a direct causal connection. Therefore, effective and efficient interventions should address other risk factors common to early intercourse and poor psychosocial health.

HEAVY MANUAL WORK THROUGHOUT THE WORKING LIFETIME AND MUSCLE STRENGTH AMONG MEN AT RETIREMENT AGE

PubMed Central

Walker-Bone, K; D’Angelo, S; Syddall, HE; Palmer, KT; Cooper, C; Coggon, D; Sayer, AA

2016-01-01

Introduction Reductions in heavy manual work as a consequence of mechanisation might impact adversely on muscle strength at older ages. We investigated the association between grip strength at retirement age and lifetime occupational exposure to physically demanding activities. Grip strength is an important predictor of long-term health and physical function in older people. Methods Grip strength (maximum of three readings in each hand) was measured in men from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study at a single examination when their mean age was 65.8 (SD 2.9) years. Associations with lifetime occupational exposure (ascertained by questionnaire) to three activities (standing/walking ≥4 hours/day; lifting ≥25 kg; and energetic work sufficient to induce sweating) were assessed by multivariable linear regression with adjustment for various potential confounders. Results Complete data were available from 1,418 men who had worked for at least 20 years. After adjustment for age, height and weight, those with longer exposures to walking/standing and heavy lifting had lower grip strength, but the relationship disappeared after further adjustment for confounders. Working at physical intensity sufficient to induce sweating was not significantly associated with grip strength. Conclusions We found no evidence that physically demanding occupational activities increase hand grip strength at normal retirement age. Any advantages of regular physical occupational activity may have been obscured by unmeasured socio-economic confounders. PMID:26896253

Interviewer effects on non-response propensity in longitudinal surveys: a multilevel modelling approach

PubMed Central

Vassallo, Rebecca; Durrant, Gabriele B; Smith, Peter W F; Goldstein, Harvey

2015-01-01

The paper investigates two different multilevel approaches, the multilevel cross-classified and the multiple-membership models, for the analysis of interviewer effects on wave non-response in longitudinal surveys. The models proposed incorporate both interviewer and area effects to account for the non-hierarchical structure, the influence of potentially more than one interviewer across waves and possible confounding of area and interviewer effects arising from the non-random allocation of interviewers across areas. The methods are compared by using a data set: the UK Family and Children Survey. PMID:25598587

"A Bayesian sensitivity analysis to evaluate the impact of unmeasured confounding with external data: a real world comparative effectiveness study in osteoporosis".

PubMed

Zhang, Xiang; Faries, Douglas E; Boytsov, Natalie; Stamey, James D; Seaman, John W

2016-09-01

Observational studies are frequently used to assess the effectiveness of medical interventions in routine clinical practice. However, the use of observational data for comparative effectiveness is challenged by selection bias and the potential of unmeasured confounding. This is especially problematic for analyses using a health care administrative database, in which key clinical measures are often not available. This paper provides an approach to conducting a sensitivity analyses to investigate the impact of unmeasured confounding in observational studies. In a real world osteoporosis comparative effectiveness study, the bone mineral density (BMD) score, an important predictor of fracture risk and a factor in the selection of osteoporosis treatments, is unavailable in the data base and lack of baseline BMD could potentially lead to significant selection bias. We implemented Bayesian twin-regression models, which simultaneously model both the observed outcome and the unobserved unmeasured confounder, using information from external sources. A sensitivity analysis was also conducted to assess the robustness of our conclusions to changes in such external data. The use of Bayesian modeling in this study suggests that the lack of baseline BMD did have a strong impact on the analysis, reversing the direction of the estimated effect (odds ratio of fracture incidence at 24 months: 0.40 vs. 1.36, with/without adjusting for unmeasured baseline BMD). The Bayesian twin-regression models provide a flexible sensitivity analysis tool to quantitatively assess the impact of unmeasured confounding in observational studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Methods for the correction of vascular artifacts in PET O-15 water brain-mapping studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Kewei; Reiman, E. M.; Lawson, M.; Yun, Lang-sheng; Bandy, D.; Palant, A.

1996-12-01

While positron emission tomographic (PET) measurements of regional cerebral blood flow (rCBF) can be used to map brain regions that are involved in normal and pathological human behaviors, measurements in the anteromedial temporal lobe can be confounded by the combined effects of radiotracer activity in neighboring arteries and partial-volume averaging. The authors now describe two simple methods to address this vascular artifact. One method utilizes the early frames of a dynamic PET study, while the other method utilizes a coregistered magnetic resonance image (MRI) to characterize the vascular region of interest (VROI). Both methods subsequently assign a common value to each pixel in the VROI for the control (baseline) scan and the activation scan. To study the vascular artifact and to demonstrate the ability of the proposed methods correcting the vascular artifact, four dynamic PET scans were performed in a single subject during the same behavioral state. For each of the four scans, a vascular scan containing vascular activity was computed as the summation of the images acquired 0-60 s after radiotracer administration, and a control scan containing minimal vascular activity was computed as the summation of the images acquired 20-80 s after radiotracer administration. t-score maps calculated from the four pairs of vascular and control scans were used to characterize regional blood flow differences related to vascular activity before and after the application of each vascular artifact correction method. Both methods eliminated the observed differences in vascular activity, as well as the vascular artifact observed in the anteromedial temporal lobes. Using PET data from a study of normal human emotion, these methods permitted the authors to identify rCBF increases in the anteromedial temporal lobe free from the potentially confounding, combined effects of vascular activity and partial-volume averaging.

Early Childhood Lead Exposure and Academic Achievement: Evidence From Detroit Public Schools, 2008–2010

PubMed Central

Baker, Harolyn W.; Tufts, Margaret; Raymond, Randall E.; Salihu, Hamisu; Elliott, Michael R.

2013-01-01

Objectives. We assessed the long-term effect of early childhood lead exposure on academic achievement in mathematics, science, and reading among elementary and junior high school children. Methods. We linked early childhood blood lead testing surveillance data from the Detroit Department of Health and Wellness Promotion to educational testing data from the Detroit, Michigan, public schools. We used the linked data to investigate the effect of early childhood lead exposure on academic achievement among school-aged children, both marginally and adjusted for grade level, gender, race, language, maternal education, and socioeconomic status. Results. High blood lead levels before age 6 years were strongly associated with poor academic achievement in grades 3, 5, and 8. The odds of scoring less than proficient for those whose blood lead levels were greater than 10 micrograms per deciliter were more than twice the odds for those whose blood lead levels were less than 1 micrograms per deciliter after adjustment for potential confounders. Conclusions. Early childhood lead exposure was negatively associated with academic achievement in elementary and junior high school, after adjusting for key potential confounders. The control of lead poisoning should focus on primary prevention of lead exposure in children and development of special education programs for students with lead poisoning. PMID:23327265

Association between periodontal flap surgery for periodontitis and vasculogenic erectile dysfunction in Koreans

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Purpose The National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort and medical checkup data from 2002 to 2013 were used to evaluate the association between periodontal surgery for the treatment of periodontitis (PSTP) and vasculogenic erectile dysfunction (VED). Methods Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were applied to a longitudinal retrospective database to assess the association between PSTP and VED while adjusting for the potential confounding effects of sociodemographic factors (age, household income, insurance status, health status, residence area, and smoking status) and comorbidities (diabetes mellitus, angina pectoris, cerebral infarction, and myocardial infarction). Results Among the 7,148 PSTP within the 268,296 recruited subjects, the overall prevalence of VED in PSTP was 1.43% (n=102). The bivariate analysis showed that VED was significantly related to PSTP (odds ratio [OR], 1.99; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.38–2.06; P<0.001), and this was confirmed in the multivariate analysis after adjusting for sociodemographic factors and comorbidities (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.06–1.58; P=0.002). Conclusions Subjects with a history of periodontal flap surgery had a significantly higher risk of VED, after adjusting for potential confounding factors. Further studies are required to identify the key mechanisms underlying the association between severe periodontal disease and VED. PMID:28462008

Coffee Consumption and Risk of Biliary Tract Cancers and Liver Cancer: A Dose–Response Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies

PubMed Central

Micek, Agnieszka; Marranzano, Marina; Ray, Sumantra

2017-01-01

Background: A meta-analysis was conducted to summarize the evidence from prospective cohort and case-control studies regarding the association between coffee intake and biliary tract cancer (BTC) and liver cancer risk. Methods: Eligible studies were identified by searches of PubMed and EMBASE databases from the earliest available online indexing year to March 2017. The dose–response relationship was assessed by a restricted cubic spline model and multivariate random-effect meta-regression. A stratified and subgroup analysis by smoking status and hepatitis was performed to identify potential confounding factors. Results: We identified five studies on BTC risk and 13 on liver cancer risk eligible for meta-analysis. A linear dose–response meta-analysis did not show a significant association between coffee consumption and BTC risk. However, there was evidence of inverse correlation between coffee consumption and liver cancer risk. The association was consistent throughout the various potential confounding factors explored including smoking status, hepatitis, etc. Increasing coffee consumption by one cup per day was associated with a 15% reduction in liver cancer risk (RR 0.85; 95% CI 0.82 to 0.88). Conclusions: The findings suggest that increased coffee consumption is associated with decreased risk of liver cancer, but not BTC. PMID:28846640

Evaluating statistical approaches to leverage large clinical datasets for uncovering therapeutic and adverse medication effects.

PubMed

Choi, Leena; Carroll, Robert J; Beck, Cole; Mosley, Jonathan D; Roden, Dan M; Denny, Joshua C; Van Driest, Sara L

2018-04-18

Phenome-wide association studies (PheWAS) have been used to discover many genotype-phenotype relationships and have the potential to identify therapeutic and adverse drug outcomes using longitudinal data within electronic health records (EHRs). However, the statistical methods for PheWAS applied to longitudinal EHR medication data have not been established. In this study, we developed methods to address two challenges faced with reuse of EHR for this purpose: confounding by indication, and low exposure and event rates. We used Monte Carlo simulation to assess propensity score (PS) methods, focusing on two of the most commonly used methods, PS matching and PS adjustment, to address confounding by indication. We also compared two logistic regression approaches (the default of Wald vs. Firth's penalized maximum likelihood, PML) to address complete separation due to sparse data with low exposure and event rates. PS adjustment resulted in greater power than propensity score matching, while controlling Type I error at 0.05. The PML method provided reasonable p-values, even in cases with complete separation, with well controlled Type I error rates. Using PS adjustment and the PML method, we identify novel latent drug effects in pediatric patients exposed to two common antibiotic drugs, ampicillin and gentamicin. R packages PheWAS and EHR are available at https://github.com/PheWAS/PheWAS and at CRAN (https://www.r-project.org/), respectively. The R script for data processing and the main analysis is available at https://github.com/choileena/EHR. leena.choi@vanderbilt.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and the Risk of Congenital Malformations

PubMed Central

Bateman, Brian T; Patorno, Elisabetta; Desai, Rishi J; Seely, Ellen W; Mogun, Helen; Dejene, Sara Z; Fischer, Michael A; Friedman, Alexander M; Hernandez-Diaz, Sonia; Huybrechts, Krista F

2016-01-01

Objective To examine the association between first-trimester angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor exposure and the risk for overall major congenital, cardiac, and central nervous system (CNS) malformations. Methods We used a cohort of completed pregnancies linked to liveborn infants derived from Medicaid claims from 2000 to 2010. We examined the risk of malformations associated with first-trimester exposure to an ACE inhibitor. Propensity score based methods were used to control for potential confounders including maternal demographics, medical conditions, exposure to other medications, and measures of health care utilization. Results The cohort included 1,333,624 pregnancies, of which 4,107 (0.31%) were exposed to ACE inhibitors during the first trimester. The prevalence of overall malformations in the ACE inhibitor–exposed was 5.9% versus 3.3% in the unexposed (unadjusted relative risk (RR), 1.82; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61 to 2.06), of cardiac malformations was 3.4% versus 1.2% (RR 2.95; 95% CI 2.50 to 3.47), and of CNS malformations was 0.27% versus 0.18% (RR 1.46; 95% CI 0.81 to 2.64). After restricting the cohort to pregnancies complicated by chronic hypertension (both exposed and unexposed) and accounting for other confounding factors, there was no significant increase in the risk for any of the outcomes assessed. Relative risks associated with first-trimester ACE inhibitor exposure were 0.89 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.06) for overall malformations, 0.95 (95% CI 0.75 to 1.21) for cardiac malformations, and 0.54 (95% CI 0.26 to 1.11) for CNS malformations. Conclusions After accounting for confounders, among women with hypertension, exposure to ACE inhibitors during the first trimester was not associated with an increased risk of major congenital malformations. PMID:27926639

Alcohol Use at Time of Injury and Survival Following Traumatic Brain Injury: Results From the National Trauma Data Bank

PubMed Central

Chen, Chiung M.; Yi, Hsiao-Ye; Yoon, Young-Hee; Dong, Chuanhui

2012-01-01

Objective: Premised on biological evidence from animal research, recent clinical studies have, for the most part, concluded that elevated blood alcohol concentration levels are independently associated with higher survival or decreased mortality in patients with moderate to severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). This study aims to provide some counterevidence to this claim and to further future investigations. Method: Incident data were drawn from the largest U.S. trauma registry, the National Trauma Data Bank, for emergency department admission years 2002–2006. TBI was identified according to the National Trauma Data Bank’s definition using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM), codes. To eliminate confounding, the exact matching method was used to match alcohol-positive with alcohol-negative incidents on sex, age, race/ethnicity, and facility. Logistic regression compared in-hospital mortality between 44,043 alcohol-positive and 59,817 matched alcohol-negative TBI incidents, with and without causes and intents of TBI and Injury Severity Score as covariates. A sensitivity analysis was performed within a subsample of isolated moderate to severe TBI incidents. Results: Alcohol use at the time of injury was found to be significantly associated with an increased risk for TBI. Including varied causes and intents of TBI and Injury Severity Score as potential confounders in the regression model explained away the statistical significance of the seemingly protective effect of alcohol against TBI mortality for all TBIs and for isolated moderate to severe TBIs. Conclusions: The null finding shows that the purported reduction in TBI mortality attributed to positive blood alcohol likely is attributable to residual confounding. Accordingly, the risk of TBI associated with alcohol use should not be overlooked. PMID:22630791

Using ecological propensity score to adjust for missing confounders in small area studies.

PubMed

Wang, Yingbo; Pirani, Monica; Hansell, Anna L; Richardson, Sylvia; Blangiardo, Marta

2017-11-09

Small area ecological studies are commonly used in epidemiology to assess the impact of area level risk factors on health outcomes when data are only available in an aggregated form. However, the resulting estimates are often biased due to unmeasured confounders, which typically are not available from the standard administrative registries used for these studies. Extra information on confounders can be provided through external data sets such as surveys or cohorts, where the data are available at the individual level rather than at the area level; however, such data typically lack the geographical coverage of administrative registries. We develop a framework of analysis which combines ecological and individual level data from different sources to provide an adjusted estimate of area level risk factors which is less biased. Our method (i) summarizes all available individual level confounders into an area level scalar variable, which we call ecological propensity score (EPS), (ii) implements a hierarchical structured approach to impute the values of EPS whenever they are missing, and (iii) includes the estimated and imputed EPS into the ecological regression linking the risk factors to the health outcome. Through a simulation study, we show that integrating individual level data into small area analyses via EPS is a promising method to reduce the bias intrinsic in ecological studies due to unmeasured confounders; we also apply the method to a real case study to evaluate the effect of air pollution on coronary heart disease hospital admissions in Greater London. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press.

Fat Quantification in the Abdomen.

PubMed

Hong, Cheng William; Fazeli Dehkordy, Soudabeh; Hooker, Jonathan C; Hamilton, Gavin; Sirlin, Claude B

2017-12-01

Fatty liver disease is characterized histologically by hepatic steatosis, the abnormal accumulation of lipid in hepatocytes. It is classified into alcoholic fatty liver disease and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, and is an increasingly important cause of chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. Assessing the severity of hepatic steatosis in these conditions is important for diagnostic and prognostic purposes, as hepatic steatosis is potentially reversible if diagnosed early. The criterion standard for assessing hepatic steatosis is liver biopsy, which is limited by sampling error, its invasive nature, and associated morbidity. As such, noninvasive imaging-based methods of assessing hepatic steatosis are needed. Ultrasound and computed tomography are able to suggest the presence of hepatic steatosis based on imaging features, but are unable to accurately quantify hepatic fat content. Since Dixon's seminal work in 1984, magnetic resonance imaging has been used to compute the signal fat fraction from chemical shift-encoded imaging, commonly implemented as out-of-phase and in-phase imaging. However, signal fat fraction is confounded by several factors that limit its accuracy and reproducibility. Recently, advanced chemical shift-encoded magnetic resonance imaging methods have been developed that address these confounders and are able to measure the proton density fat fraction, a standardized, accurate, and reproducible biomarker of fat content. The use of these methods in the liver, as well as in other abdominal organs such as the pancreas, adrenal glands, and adipose tissue will be discussed in this review.

Rhythmic entrainment source separation: Optimizing analyses of neural responses to rhythmic sensory stimulation.

PubMed

Cohen, Michael X; Gulbinaite, Rasa

2017-02-15

Steady-state evoked potentials (SSEPs) are rhythmic brain responses to rhythmic sensory stimulation, and are often used to study perceptual and attentional processes. We present a data analysis method for maximizing the signal-to-noise ratio of the narrow-band steady-state response in the frequency and time-frequency domains. The method, termed rhythmic entrainment source separation (RESS), is based on denoising source separation approaches that take advantage of the simultaneous but differential projection of neural activity to multiple electrodes or sensors. Our approach is a combination and extension of existing multivariate source separation methods. We demonstrate that RESS performs well on both simulated and empirical data, and outperforms conventional SSEP analysis methods based on selecting electrodes with the strongest SSEP response, as well as several other linear spatial filters. We also discuss the potential confound of overfitting, whereby the filter captures noise in absence of a signal. Matlab scripts are available to replicate and extend our simulations and methods. We conclude with some practical advice for optimizing SSEP data analyses and interpreting the results. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The role of self-defined race/ethnicity in population structure control.

PubMed

Liu, X-Q; Paterson, A D; John, E M; Knight, J A

2006-07-01

Population-based association studies are powerful tools for the genetic mapping of complex diseases. However, this method is sensitive to potential confounding by population structure. While statistical methods that use genetic markers to detect and control for population structure have been the focus of current literature, the utility of self-defined race/ethnicity in controlling for population structure has been controversial. In this study of 1334 individuals, who self-identified as either African American, European American or Hispanic, we demonstrated that when the true underlying genetic structure and the self-defined racial/ethnic groups were roughly in agreement with each other, the self-defined race/ethnicity information was useful in the control of population structure.

A Tutorial in Bayesian Potential Outcomes Mediation Analysis.

PubMed

Miočević, Milica; Gonzalez, Oscar; Valente, Matthew J; MacKinnon, David P

2018-01-01

Statistical mediation analysis is used to investigate intermediate variables in the relation between independent and dependent variables. Causal interpretation of mediation analyses is challenging because randomization of subjects to levels of the independent variable does not rule out the possibility of unmeasured confounders of the mediator to outcome relation. Furthermore, commonly used frequentist methods for mediation analysis compute the probability of the data given the null hypothesis, which is not the probability of a hypothesis given the data as in Bayesian analysis. Under certain assumptions, applying the potential outcomes framework to mediation analysis allows for the computation of causal effects, and statistical mediation in the Bayesian framework gives indirect effects probabilistic interpretations. This tutorial combines causal inference and Bayesian methods for mediation analysis so the indirect and direct effects have both causal and probabilistic interpretations. Steps in Bayesian causal mediation analysis are shown in the application to an empirical example.

Who really gets strep sore throat? Confounding and effect modification of a time-varying exposure on recurrent events.

PubMed

Follmann, Dean; Huang, Chiung-Yu; Gabriel, Erin

2016-10-30

Unmeasured confounding is the fundamental obstacle to drawing causal conclusions about the impact of an intervention from observational data. Typically, covariates are measured to eliminate or ameliorate confounding, but they may be insufficient or unavailable. In the special setting where a transient intervention or exposure varies over time within each individual and confounding is time constant, a different tack is possible. The key idea is to condition on either the overall outcome or the proportion of time in the intervention. These measures can eliminate the unmeasured confounding either by conditioning or by use of a proxy covariate. We evaluate existing methods and develop new models from which causal conclusions can be drawn from such observational data even if no baseline covariates are measured. Our motivation for this work was to determine the causal effect of Streptococcus bacteria in the throat on pharyngitis (sore throat) in Indian schoolchildren. Using our models, we show that existing methods can be badly biased and that sick children who are rarely colonized have a high probability that the Streptococcus bacteria are causing their disease. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2016. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Quasi-experimental study designs series-paper 10: synthesizing evidence for effects collected from quasi-experimental studies presents surmountable challenges.

PubMed

Becker, Betsy Jane; Aloe, Ariel M; Duvendack, Maren; Stanley, T D; Valentine, Jeffrey C; Fretheim, Atle; Tugwell, Peter

2017-09-01

To outline issues of importance to analytic approaches to the synthesis of quasi-experiments (QEs) and to provide a statistical model for use in analysis. We drew on studies of statistics, epidemiology, and social-science methodology to outline methods for synthesis of QE studies. The design and conduct of QEs, effect sizes from QEs, and moderator variables for the analysis of those effect sizes were discussed. Biases, confounding, design complexities, and comparisons across designs offer serious challenges to syntheses of QEs. Key components of meta-analyses of QEs were identified, including the aspects of QE study design to be coded and analyzed. Of utmost importance are the design and statistical controls implemented in the QEs. Such controls and any potential sources of bias and confounding must be modeled in analyses, along with aspects of the interventions and populations studied. Because of such controls, effect sizes from QEs are more complex than those from randomized experiments. A statistical meta-regression model that incorporates important features of the QEs under review was presented. Meta-analyses of QEs provide particular challenges, but thorough coding of intervention characteristics and study methods, along with careful analysis, should allow for sound inferences. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Direct-on-Filter α-Quartz Estimation in Respirable Coal Mine Dust Using Transmission Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometry and Partial Least Squares Regression

PubMed Central

Miller, Arthur L.; Weakley, Andrew Todd; Griffiths, Peter R.; Cauda, Emanuele G.; Bayman, Sean

2017-01-01

In order to help reduce silicosis in miners, the National Institute for Occupational Health and Safety (NIOSH) is developing field-portable methods for measuring airborne respirable crystalline silica (RCS), specifically the polymorph α-quartz, in mine dusts. In this study we demonstrate the feasibility of end-of-shift measurement of α-quartz using a direct-on-filter (DoF) method to analyze coal mine dust samples deposited onto polyvinyl chloride filters. The DoF method is potentially amenable for on-site analyses, but deviates from the current regulatory determination of RCS for coal mines by eliminating two sample preparation steps: ashing the sampling filter and redepositing the ash prior to quantification by Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectrometry. In this study, the FT-IR spectra of 66 coal dust samples from active mines were used, and the RCS was quantified by using: (1) an ordinary least squares (OLS) calibration approach that utilizes standard silica material as done in the Mine Safety and Health Administration's P7 method; and (2) a partial least squares (PLS) regression approach. Both were capable of accounting for kaolinite, which can confound the IR analysis of silica. The OLS method utilized analytical standards for silica calibration and kaolin correction, resulting in a good linear correlation with P7 results and minimal bias but with the accuracy limited by the presence of kaolinite. The PLS approach also produced predictions well-correlated to the P7 method, as well as better accuracy in RCS prediction, and no bias due to variable kaolinite mass. Besides decreased sensitivity to mineral or substrate confounders, PLS has the advantage that the analyst is not required to correct for the presence of kaolinite or background interferences related to the substrate, making the method potentially viable for automated RCS prediction in the field. This study demonstrated the efficacy of FT-IR transmission spectrometry for silica determination in coal mine dusts, using both OLS and PLS analyses, when kaolinite was present. PMID:27645724

Direct-on-Filter α-Quartz Estimation in Respirable Coal Mine Dust Using Transmission Fourier Transform Infrared Spectrometry and Partial Least Squares Regression.

PubMed

Miller, Arthur L; Weakley, Andrew Todd; Griffiths, Peter R; Cauda, Emanuele G; Bayman, Sean

2017-05-01

In order to help reduce silicosis in miners, the National Institute for Occupational Health and Safety (NIOSH) is developing field-portable methods for measuring airborne respirable crystalline silica (RCS), specifically the polymorph α-quartz, in mine dusts. In this study we demonstrate the feasibility of end-of-shift measurement of α-quartz using a direct-on-filter (DoF) method to analyze coal mine dust samples deposited onto polyvinyl chloride filters. The DoF method is potentially amenable for on-site analyses, but deviates from the current regulatory determination of RCS for coal mines by eliminating two sample preparation steps: ashing the sampling filter and redepositing the ash prior to quantification by Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectrometry. In this study, the FT-IR spectra of 66 coal dust samples from active mines were used, and the RCS was quantified by using: (1) an ordinary least squares (OLS) calibration approach that utilizes standard silica material as done in the Mine Safety and Health Administration's P7 method; and (2) a partial least squares (PLS) regression approach. Both were capable of accounting for kaolinite, which can confound the IR analysis of silica. The OLS method utilized analytical standards for silica calibration and kaolin correction, resulting in a good linear correlation with P7 results and minimal bias but with the accuracy limited by the presence of kaolinite. The PLS approach also produced predictions well-correlated to the P7 method, as well as better accuracy in RCS prediction, and no bias due to variable kaolinite mass. Besides decreased sensitivity to mineral or substrate confounders, PLS has the advantage that the analyst is not required to correct for the presence of kaolinite or background interferences related to the substrate, making the method potentially viable for automated RCS prediction in the field. This study demonstrated the efficacy of FT-IR transmission spectrometry for silica determination in coal mine dusts, using both OLS and PLS analyses, when kaolinite was present.

Improving Causal Inferences in Meta-analyses of Longitudinal Studies: Spanking as an Illustration.

PubMed

Larzelere, Robert E; Gunnoe, Marjorie Lindner; Ferguson, Christopher J

2018-05-24

To evaluate and improve the validity of causal inferences from meta-analyses of longitudinal studies, two adjustments for Time-1 outcome scores and a temporally backwards test are demonstrated. Causal inferences would be supported by robust results across both adjustment methods, distinct from results run backwards. A systematic strategy for evaluating potential confounds is also introduced. The methods are illustrated by assessing the impact of spanking on subsequent externalizing problems (child age: 18 months to 11 years). Significant results indicated a small risk or a small benefit of spanking, depending on the adjustment method. These meta-analytic methods are applicable for research on alternatives to spanking and other developmental science topics. The underlying principles can also improve causal inferences in individual studies. © 2018 Society for Research in Child Development.

Doubly robust matching estimators for high dimensional confounding adjustment.

PubMed

Antonelli, Joseph; Cefalu, Matthew; Palmer, Nathan; Agniel, Denis

2018-05-11

Valid estimation of treatment effects from observational data requires proper control of confounding. If the number of covariates is large relative to the number of observations, then controlling for all available covariates is infeasible. In cases where a sparsity condition holds, variable selection or penalization can reduce the dimension of the covariate space in a manner that allows for valid estimation of treatment effects. In this article, we propose matching on both the estimated propensity score and the estimated prognostic scores when the number of covariates is large relative to the number of observations. We derive asymptotic results for the matching estimator and show that it is doubly robust in the sense that only one of the two score models need be correct to obtain a consistent estimator. We show via simulation its effectiveness in controlling for confounding and highlight its potential to address nonlinear confounding. Finally, we apply the proposed procedure to analyze the effect of gender on prescription opioid use using insurance claims data. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Restricted spatial regression in practice: Geostatistical models, confounding, and robustness under model misspecification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hanks, Ephraim M.; Schliep, Erin M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Hoeting, Jennifer A.

2015-01-01

In spatial generalized linear mixed models (SGLMMs), covariates that are spatially smooth are often collinear with spatially smooth random effects. This phenomenon is known as spatial confounding and has been studied primarily in the case where the spatial support of the process being studied is discrete (e.g., areal spatial data). In this case, the most common approach suggested is restricted spatial regression (RSR) in which the spatial random effects are constrained to be orthogonal to the fixed effects. We consider spatial confounding and RSR in the geostatistical (continuous spatial support) setting. We show that RSR provides computational benefits relative to the confounded SGLMM, but that Bayesian credible intervals under RSR can be inappropriately narrow under model misspecification. We propose a posterior predictive approach to alleviating this potential problem and discuss the appropriateness of RSR in a variety of situations. We illustrate RSR and SGLMM approaches through simulation studies and an analysis of malaria frequencies in The Gambia, Africa.

The Role of Body Adiposity Index in Determining Body Fat Percentage in Colombian Adults with Overweight or Obesity.

PubMed

Ramírez-Vélez, Robinson; Correa-Bautista, Jorge Enrique; González-Ruíz, Katherine; Tordecilla-Sanders, Alejandra; García-Hermoso, Antonio; Schmidt-RioValle, Jacqueline; González-Jiménez, Emilio

2017-09-21

The aim of this study is to investigate the accuracy of body adiposity index (BAI) as a convenient tool for assessing body fat percentage (BF%) in a sample of adults with overweight/obesity using bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA). The study population was composed of 96 volunteers (60% female, mean age 40.6 ± 7.5 years old). Anthropometric characteristics (body mass index, height, waist-to-height ratio, hip and waist circumference), socioeconomic status, and diet were assessed, and BF% was measured by BIA-BF% and by BAI-BF%. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the correlation between BAI-BF% and BF% assessed by BIA-BF%, while controlling for potential confounders. The concordance between the BF% measured by both methods was obtained with a paired sample t -test, Lin's concordance correlation coefficient, and Bland-Altman plot analysis. Overall, the correlation between BF% obtained by BIA-BF% and estimated by BAI-BF% was r = 0.885, p < 0.001, after adjusting for potential confounders (age, socioeconomic status, and diet). Lin's concordance correlation coefficient was moderate in both sexes. In the men, the paired t-test showed a significant mean difference in BF% between the methods (-5.6 (95%CI -6.4 to -4.8); p < 0.001). In the women, these differences were (-3.6 (95%CI -4.7 to -2.5); p < 0.001). Overall, the bias of the BAI-BF% was -4.8 ± 3.2 BF%; p < 0.001), indicating that the BAI-BF% method significantly underestimated the BF% in comparison with the reference method. In adults with overweight/obesity, the BAI presents low agreement with BF% measured by BIA-BF%; therefore, we conclude that BIA-BF% is not accurate in either sex when body fat percentage levels are low or high. Further studies are necessary to confirm our findings in different ethnic groups.

The Role of Body Adiposity Index in Determining Body Fat Percentage in Colombian Adults with Overweight or Obesity

PubMed Central

González-Ruíz, Katherine; Schmidt-RioValle, Jacqueline

2017-01-01

The aim of this study is to investigate the accuracy of body adiposity index (BAI) as a convenient tool for assessing body fat percentage (BF%) in a sample of adults with overweight/obesity using bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA). The study population was composed of 96 volunteers (60% female, mean age 40.6 ± 7.5 years old). Anthropometric characteristics (body mass index, height, waist-to-height ratio, hip and waist circumference), socioeconomic status, and diet were assessed, and BF% was measured by BIA-BF% and by BAI-BF%. Pearson’s correlation coefficient was used to evaluate the correlation between BAI-BF% and BF% assessed by BIA-BF%, while controlling for potential confounders. The concordance between the BF% measured by both methods was obtained with a paired sample t-test, Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient, and Bland-Altman plot analysis. Overall, the correlation between BF% obtained by BIA-BF% and estimated by BAI-BF% was r = 0.885, p < 0.001, after adjusting for potential confounders (age, socioeconomic status, and diet). Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient was moderate in both sexes. In the men, the paired t-test showed a significant mean difference in BF% between the methods (−5.6 (95% CI −6.4 to −4.8); p < 0.001). In the women, these differences were (−3.6 (95% CI −4.7 to −2.5); p < 0.001). Overall, the bias of the BAI-BF% was −4.8 ± 3.2 BF%; p < 0.001), indicating that the BAI-BF% method significantly underestimated the BF% in comparison with the reference method. In adults with overweight/obesity, the BAI presents low agreement with BF% measured by BIA-BF%; therefore, we conclude that BIA-BF% is not accurate in either sex when body fat percentage levels are low or high. Further studies are necessary to confirm our findings in different ethnic groups. PMID:28934175

Examining confounding by diet in the association between perfluoroalkyl acids and serum cholesterol in pregnancy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skuladottir, Margret; Ramel, Alfons; Unit for Nutrition Research, Landspitali National University Hospital, Reykjavik

Background: Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) have consistently been associated with higher cholesterol levels in cross sectional studies. Concerns have, however, been raised about potential confounding by diet and clinical relevance. Objective: To examine the association between concentrations of PFOS and PFOA and total cholesterol in serum during pregnancy taking into considerations confounding by diet. Methods: 854 Danish women who gave birth in 1988–89 and provided a blood sample and reported their diet in week 30 of gestation. Results: Mean serum PFOS, PFOA and total cholesterol concentrations were 22.3 ng/mL, 4.1 ng/mL and 7.3 mmol/L, respectively. Maternal dietmore » was a significant predictor of serum PFOS and PFOA concentrations. In particular intake of meat and meat products was positively associated while intake of vegetables was inversely associated (P for trend <0.01) with relative difference between the highest and lowest quartile in PFOS and PFOA concentrations ranging between 6% and 25% of mean values. After adjustment for dietary factors both PFOA and PFOS were positively and similarly associated with serum cholesterol (P for trend ≤0.01). For example, the mean increase in serum cholesterol was 0.39 mmol/L (95%CI: 0.09, 0.68) when comparing women in the highest to lowest quintile of PFOA concentrations. In comparison the mean increase in serum cholesterol was 0.61 mmol/L (95%CI: 0.17, 1.05) when comparing women in the highest to lowest quintile of saturated fat intake. Conclusion: In this study associations between PFOS and PFOA with serum cholesterol appeared unrelated to dietary intake and were similar in magnitude as the associations between saturated fat intake and serum cholesterol. - Highlights: • PFOS and PFOA have consistently been linked with raised serum cholesterol • Clinical relevance remains uncertain and confounding by diet has been suggested • The aim of this study was to address these issues in a cohort of 854 pregnant women • With detailed dietary information we found no indication of such confounding • As predictors cholesterol PFOSA and PFOA were similar to other known risk factors.« less

Clinical Research Methodology 2: Observational Clinical Research.

PubMed

Sessler, Daniel I; Imrey, Peter B

2015-10-01

Case-control and cohort studies are invaluable research tools and provide the strongest feasible research designs for addressing some questions. Case-control studies usually involve retrospective data collection. Cohort studies can involve retrospective, ambidirectional, or prospective data collection. Observational studies are subject to errors attributable to selection bias, confounding, measurement bias, and reverse causation-in addition to errors of chance. Confounding can be statistically controlled to the extent that potential factors are known and accurately measured, but, in practice, bias and unknown confounders usually remain additional potential sources of error, often of unknown magnitude and clinical impact. Causality-the most clinically useful relation between exposure and outcome-can rarely be definitively determined from observational studies because intentional, controlled manipulations of exposures are not involved. In this article, we review several types of observational clinical research: case series, comparative case-control and cohort studies, and hybrid designs in which case-control analyses are performed on selected members of cohorts. We also discuss the analytic issues that arise when groups to be compared in an observational study, such as patients receiving different therapies, are not comparable in other respects.

Edge and area effects on the occurrence of migrant forest songbirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Parker, T.H.; Stansberry, B.M.; Becker, C.D.; Gipson, P.S.

2005-01-01

Concerns about forest fragmentation and its conservation implications have motivated numerous studies that investigate the influence of forest patch area and forest edge on songbird distribution patterns. The generalized effects of forest patch size and forest edge on animal distributions is still debatable because forest patch size and forest edge are often confounded and because of an incomplete synthesis of available data. To fill a portion of this gap, we incorporated all available published data (33 papers) in meta-analyses of forest edge and area effects on site occupancy patterns for 26 Neotropical migrant forest-nesting songbirds in eastern North America. All reported area effects are confounded or potentially confounded by edge effects, and we refer to these as "confounded" studies. The converse, however, is not true and most reported edge effects are independent of patch area. When considering only nonconfounded studies of edge effects, only 1 of 17 species showed significant edge avoidance and 3 had significant affinity for edges. In confounded studies, 12 of 22 species showed significant avoidance of small patches and edges, and 1 had an affinity for small patches and edges. Furthermore, average effect sizes averaged across studies or species tended to be higher for confounded studies than for edge studies. We discuss three possible reasons for differences in results between these two groups of studies. First, studies of edge effects tended to be carried out in landscapes with greater forest cover than studies of confounded effects; among confounded effects studies, as forest cover increased, we observed a nonsignificant trend towards decreasing strength of small patch or edge avoidance effects. Thus, the weaker effects in edge studies may be due to the fact that these studies were conducted in forest-dominated landscapes. Second, we may have detected strong effects only in confounded studies because area effects are much stronger than edge effects on bird occurrence, and area effects drive the results in confounded studies. Third, edge and area effects may interact in such a way that edge effects become more important as forest patch size decreases; thus, both edge and area effects are responsible for results in confounded studies. These three explanations cannot be adequately separated with existing data. Regardless, it is clear that fragmentation of forests into small patches is detrimental to many migrant songbird species. ??2005 Society for Conservation Biology.

Association between borderline dysnatremia and mortality insight into a new data mining approach.

PubMed

Girardeau, Yannick; Jannot, Anne-Sophie; Chatellier, Gilles; Saint-Jean, Olivier

2017-11-22

Even small variations of serum sodium concentration may be associated with mortality. Our objective was to confirm the impact of borderline dysnatremia for patients admitted to hospital on in-hospital mortality using real life care data from our electronic health record (EHR) and a phenome-wide association analysis (PheWAS). Retrospective observational study based on patient data admitted to Hôpital Européen George Pompidou, between 01/01/2008 and 31/06/2014; including 45,834 patients with serum sodium determinations on admission. We analyzed the association between dysnatremia and in-hospital mortality, using a multivariate logistic regression model to adjust for classical potential confounders. We performed a PheWAS to identify new potential confounders. Hyponatremia and hypernatremia were recorded for 12.0% and 1.0% of hospital stays, respectively. Adjusted odds ratios (ORa) for severe, moderate and borderline hyponatremia were 3.44 (95% CI, 2.41-4.86), 2.48 (95% CI, 1.96-3.13) and 1.98 (95% CI, 1.73-2.28), respectively. ORa for severe, moderate and borderline hypernatremia were 4.07 (95% CI, 2.92-5.62), 4.42 (95% CI, 2.04-9.20) and 3.72 (95% CI, 1.53-8.45), respectively. Borderline hyponatremia (ORa = 1.57 95% CI, 1.35-1.81) and borderline hypernatremia (ORa = 3.47 95% CI, 2.43-4.90) were still associated with in-hospital mortality after adjustment for classical and new confounding factors identified through the PheWAS analysis. Borderline dysnatremia on admission are independently associated with a higher risk of in-hospital mortality. By using medical data automatically collected in EHR and a new data mining approach, we identified new potential confounding factors that were highly associated with both mortality and dysnatremia.

Risk of Breast Cancer Associated with Reproductive and Fertility Factors According to a Family History of Breast Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

1999-10-01

also ruled out as confounders. Polycystic ovaries and endometriosis, possible indications for using OCs, were evaluated as potential confounders, but...Cn polymorphism In the MTHFR gone with breast and/or A irne genomic deletion of hMLHI in a family with Muir-Torre syndrome . J.J.P.canoer risk In...reduion I te,1Teth-A Muir-Torre syndrome (MTS) is an autosomal dominant condition characterized by se- Miylonetetrathydrofoiate reductase (MTHFR

A Doubly Stochastic Change Point Detection Algorithm for Noisy Biological Signals.

PubMed

Gold, Nathan; Frasch, Martin G; Herry, Christophe L; Richardson, Bryan S; Wang, Xiaogang

2017-01-01

Experimentally and clinically collected time series data are often contaminated with significant confounding noise, creating short, noisy time series. This noise, due to natural variability and measurement error, poses a challenge to conventional change point detection methods. We propose a novel and robust statistical method for change point detection for noisy biological time sequences. Our method is a significant improvement over traditional change point detection methods, which only examine a potential anomaly at a single time point. In contrast, our method considers all suspected anomaly points and considers the joint probability distribution of the number of change points and the elapsed time between two consecutive anomalies. We validate our method with three simulated time series, a widely accepted benchmark data set, two geological time series, a data set of ECG recordings, and a physiological data set of heart rate variability measurements of fetal sheep model of human labor, comparing it to three existing methods. Our method demonstrates significantly improved performance over the existing point-wise detection methods.

Occupational exposure and ovarian cancer risk.

PubMed

Le, Nhu D; Leung, Andy; Brooks-Wilson, Angela; Gallagher, Richard P; Swenerton, Kenneth D; Demers, Paul A; Cook, Linda S

2014-07-01

Relatively little work has been done concerning occupational risk factors in ovarian cancer. Although studies conducted in occupational settings have reported positive associations, their usefulness is generally limited by the lack of information on important confounders. In a population-based case-control study, we assessed risk for developing epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) associated with occupational exposure while accounting for important confounders. Participants were identified through provincial population-based registries. Lifetime occupational history and information on potential confounding factors were obtained through a self-administered questionnaire. Unconditional logistic regression and the likelihood ratio test were used to assess EOC risk with each occupation (or industry), relative to all other occupations (or industries), adjusting for potential confounders including body mass index, oral contraceptive use, menopausal hormone therapy, parity, age at first childbirth, age at menarche, age at menopause, family history of breast and ovarian cancer in mother and sister(s), tubal ligation, partial oophorectomy, and hysterectomy. Occupations and industries were coded according to the Canadian Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) and Standard Industrial Classification (SIC). Significant excess risk was observed for several groups of teaching occupations, including SOC 27, teaching and related (adjusted OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.15-2.81) and SOC 279, other teaching and related (adjusted OR 3.11, 95% CI 1.35-8.49). Significant excess was also seen for a four-digit occupational group SOC 4131, bookkeepers and accounting clerks (adjusted OR 2.80, 95% CI 1.30-6.80). Industrial sub-groups showing significant excess risk included SIC 65, other retail stores (adjusted OR 2.19, 95 % CI 1.16-4.38); SIC 85, educational service (adjusted OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.00-2.13); and SIC 863, non-institutional health services (adjusted OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.13-6.52). Our study found an elevated EOC risk for teaching occupations and is the first study to observe such an increased risk after adjustment for potential confounders. Further studies with more detailed assessment of the work environment and unique lifestyle characteristics may be fruitful in elucidating this etiology.

P300 Source Localization Contrasts in Body-Focused Repetitive Behaviors and Tic Disorders

PubMed Central

Sauvé, Geneviève; O’Connor, Kieron P.; Blanchet, Pierre J.

2017-01-01

Tic disorders (TD) and body-focused repetitive behaviors (BFRB) have similar phenotypes that can be challenging to distinguish in clinical settings. Both disorders show high rates of comorbid psychiatric conditions, dysfunctional basal ganglia activity, atypical cortical functioning in the prefrontal and motor cortical regions, and cognitive deficits. Clinicians frequently confound the two disorders and it is important to find reliable objective methods to discriminate TD and BFRB. Neuropsychological tests and event-related potential (ERP) studies have yielded inconsistent results regarding a possible context updating deficit in TD and BFRB patients. However, most previous studies did not control for the presence of comorbid psychiatric condition and medication status, which might have confounded the findings reported to date. Hence, we aimed to investigate the psychophysiology of working memory using ERP in carefully screened TD and BFRB patients excluding those with psychiatric comorbidity and those taking psychoactive medication. The current study compared 12 TD patients, 12 BRFB patients, and 15 healthy control participants using a motor oddball task (button press). The P300 component was analyzed as an index of working memory functioning. Results showed that BFRB patients had decreased P300 oddball effect amplitudes over the right hemisphere compared to the TD and control groups. Clinical groups presented different scalp distributions compared to controls, which could represent a potential endophenotype candidate of BFRB and TD. PMID:28671557

Disconcordance in Statistical Models of Bisphenol A and Chronic Disease Outcomes in NHANES 2003-08

PubMed Central

Casey, Martin F.; Neidell, Matthew

2013-01-01

Background Bisphenol A (BPA), a high production chemical commonly found in plastics, has drawn great attention from researchers due to the substance’s potential toxicity. Using data from three National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) cycles, we explored the consistency and robustness of BPA’s reported effects on coronary heart disease and diabetes. Methods And Findings We report the use of three different statistical models in the analysis of BPA: (1) logistic regression, (2) log-linear regression, and (3) dose-response logistic regression. In each variation, confounders were added in six blocks to account for demographics, urinary creatinine, source of BPA exposure, healthy behaviours, and phthalate exposure. Results were sensitive to the variations in functional form of our statistical models, but no single model yielded consistent results across NHANES cycles. Reported ORs were also found to be sensitive to inclusion/exclusion criteria. Further, observed effects, which were most pronounced in NHANES 2003-04, could not be explained away by confounding. Conclusions Limitations in the NHANES data and a poor understanding of the mode of action of BPA have made it difficult to develop informative statistical models. Given the sensitivity of effect estimates to functional form, researchers should report results using multiple specifications with different assumptions about BPA measurement, thus allowing for the identification of potential discrepancies in the data. PMID:24223205

Association of Personality Traits with Elder Self-Neglect in a Community Dwelling Population

PubMed Central

Dong, XinQi; Simon, Melissa; Wilson, Robert; Beck, Todd; McKinell, Kelly; Evans, Denis

2010-01-01

Objective Elder self-neglect is an important public health issue. However, little is known about the association between personality traits and risk of elder self-neglect among community-dwelling populations. The objectives of this study are: 1) to examine the association of personality traits with elder self-neglect and 2) to examine the association of personality traits with elder self-neglect severity. Methods Population-based study conducted from 1993–2005 of community-dwelling older adults (N=9,056) participating in the Chicago Health Aging Project (CHAP). Subsets of the CHAP participants (N=1,820) were identified for suspected self-neglect by social services agency, which assessed the severity. Personality traits assessed included neuroticism, extraversion, rigidity and information processing. Logistic and linear regressions were used to assess these associations. Results In the bivariate analyses, personality traits (neuroticism, extraversion, information processing, and rigidity) were significantly associated with increased risk of elder self-neglect. However, after adjusting for potential confounders, the above associations were no longer statistically significant. In addition, personality traits were not associated with increased risk of greater self-neglect severity. Furthermore, interaction term analyses of personality traits with health and psychosocial factors were not statistically significant with elder self-neglect outcomes. Conclusion Neuroticism, extraversion, rigidity and information processing were not associated with significantly increased risk of elder self-neglect after consideration of potential confounders. PMID:21788924

Embryo transfer by reproductive endocrinology fellows vs attending physicians: are live birth rates comparable?

PubMed

Eaton, Jennifer L; Zhang, Xingqi; Barnes, Randall B

2014-11-01

To compare live birth rates following ultrasound-guided embryo transfer (ET) by reproductive endocrinology and infertility fellows versus attending physicians. Women who underwent their first day-3, fresh, nondonor ET between Oct. 1, 2005, and April 1, 2011, at our academic center were included in this retrospective cohort study. Embryos were designated high quality if they had 8 cells, less than 10% fragmentation, and no asymmetry. ET was performed with the afterload technique under ultrasound guidance. Categorical variables were evaluated with the χ(2) test and continuous variables with the Student t test. Logistic regression was performed to assess the relationship between ET physician and live birth rate while adjusting for potential confounders. Seven hundred sixty women underwent ET by an attending physician, and 104 by a fellow. Baseline characteristics were similar between the groups. The live birth rate was 31% following ET by an attending physician, compared with 34% following ET by a fellow (P = .65). Logistic regression adjusting for potential confounders demonstrated no significant association between ET physician and live birth rate. This retrospective study demonstrated no significant difference in live birth rates following ultrasound-guided ET by fellows vs attending physicians at our institution. These data suggest that academic practices using the afterload method and ultrasound guidance can train fellows to perform ET without compromising success rates. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Burden of potentially pathologic copy number variants is higher in children with isolated congenital heart disease and significantly impairs covariate-adjusted transplant-free survival.

PubMed

Kim, Daniel Seung; Kim, Jerry H; Burt, Amber A; Crosslin, David R; Burnham, Nancy; Kim, Cecilia E; McDonald-McGinn, Donna M; Zackai, Elaine H; Nicolson, Susan C; Spray, Thomas L; Stanaway, Ian B; Nickerson, Deborah A; Heagerty, Patrick J; Hakonarson, Hakon; Gaynor, J William; Jarvik, Gail P

2016-04-01

Copy number variants (CNVs) are duplications or deletions of genomic regions. Large CNVs are potentially pathogenic and are overrepresented in children with congenital heart disease (CHD). We sought to determine the frequency of large CNVs in children with isolated CHD, and to evaluate the relationship of these potentially pathogenic CNVs with transplant-free survival. These cases are derived from a prospective cohort of patients with nonsyndromic CHD (n = 422) identified before first surgery. Healthy pediatric controls (n = 500) were obtained from the electronic Medical Records and Genetic Epidemiology Network, and CNV frequency was contrasted for CHD cases and controls. CNVs were determined algorithmically; subsequently screened for >95% overlap between 2 methods, size (>300 kb), quality score, overlap with a gene, and novelty (absent from databases of known, benign CNVs); and separately validated by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. Survival likelihoods for cases were calculated using Cox proportional hazards modeling to evaluate the joint effect of CNV burden and known confounders on transplant-free survival. Children with nonsyndromic CHD had a higher burden of potentially pathogenic CNVs compared with pediatric controls (12.1% vs 5.0%; P = .00016). Presence of a CNV was associated with significantly decreased transplant-free survival after surgery (hazard ratio, 3.42; 95% confidence interval, 1.66-7.09; P = .00090) with confounder adjustment. We confirm that children with isolated CHD have a greater burden of rare/large CNVs. We report a novel finding that these CNVs are associated with an adjusted 2.55-fold increased risk of death or transplant. These data suggest that CNV burden is an important modifier of survival after surgery for CHD. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Efficient estimation of the attributable fraction when there are monotonicity constraints and interactions.

PubMed

Traskin, Mikhail; Wang, Wei; Ten Have, Thomas R; Small, Dylan S

2013-01-01

The PAF for an exposure is the fraction of disease cases in a population that can be attributed to that exposure. One method of estimating the PAF involves estimating the probability of having the disease given the exposure and confounding variables. In many settings, the exposure will interact with the confounders and the confounders will interact with each other. Also, in many settings, the probability of having the disease is thought, based on subject matter knowledge, to be a monotone increasing function of the exposure and possibly of some of the confounders. We develop an efficient approach for estimating logistic regression models with interactions and monotonicity constraints, and apply this approach to estimating the population attributable fraction (PAF). Our approach produces substantially more accurate estimates of the PAF in some settings than the usual approach which uses logistic regression without monotonicity constraints.

Network Mendelian randomization: using genetic variants as instrumental variables to investigate mediation in causal pathways

PubMed Central

Burgess, Stephen; Daniel, Rhian M; Butterworth, Adam S; Thompson, Simon G

2015-01-01

Background: Mendelian randomization uses genetic variants, assumed to be instrumental variables for a particular exposure, to estimate the causal effect of that exposure on an outcome. If the instrumental variable criteria are satisfied, the resulting estimator is consistent even in the presence of unmeasured confounding and reverse causation. Methods: We extend the Mendelian randomization paradigm to investigate more complex networks of relationships between variables, in particular where some of the effect of an exposure on the outcome may operate through an intermediate variable (a mediator). If instrumental variables for the exposure and mediator are available, direct and indirect effects of the exposure on the outcome can be estimated, for example using either a regression-based method or structural equation models. The direction of effect between the exposure and a possible mediator can also be assessed. Methods are illustrated in an applied example considering causal relationships between body mass index, C-reactive protein and uric acid. Results: These estimators are consistent in the presence of unmeasured confounding if, in addition to the instrumental variable assumptions, the effects of both the exposure on the mediator and the mediator on the outcome are homogeneous across individuals and linear without interactions. Nevertheless, a simulation study demonstrates that even considerable heterogeneity in these effects does not lead to bias in the estimates. Conclusions: These methods can be used to estimate direct and indirect causal effects in a mediation setting, and have potential for the investigation of more complex networks between multiple interrelated exposures and disease outcomes. PMID:25150977

Double propensity-score adjustment: A solution to design bias or bias due to incomplete matching.

PubMed

Austin, Peter C

2017-02-01

Propensity-score matching is frequently used to reduce the effects of confounding when using observational data to estimate the effects of treatments. Matching allows one to estimate the average effect of treatment in the treated. Rosenbaum and Rubin coined the term "bias due to incomplete matching" to describe the bias that can occur when some treated subjects are excluded from the matched sample because no appropriate control subject was available. The presence of incomplete matching raises important questions around the generalizability of estimated treatment effects to the entire population of treated subjects. We describe an analytic solution to address the bias due to incomplete matching. Our method is based on using optimal or nearest neighbor matching, rather than caliper matching (which frequently results in the exclusion of some treated subjects). Within the sample matched on the propensity score, covariate adjustment using the propensity score is then employed to impute missing potential outcomes under lack of treatment for each treated subject. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we found that the proposed method resulted in estimates of treatment effect that were essentially unbiased. This method resulted in decreased bias compared to caliper matching alone and compared to either optimal matching or nearest neighbor matching alone. Caliper matching alone resulted in design bias or bias due to incomplete matching, while optimal matching or nearest neighbor matching alone resulted in bias due to residual confounding. The proposed method also tended to result in estimates with decreased mean squared error compared to when caliper matching was used.

Double propensity-score adjustment: A solution to design bias or bias due to incomplete matching

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Propensity-score matching is frequently used to reduce the effects of confounding when using observational data to estimate the effects of treatments. Matching allows one to estimate the average effect of treatment in the treated. Rosenbaum and Rubin coined the term “bias due to incomplete matching” to describe the bias that can occur when some treated subjects are excluded from the matched sample because no appropriate control subject was available. The presence of incomplete matching raises important questions around the generalizability of estimated treatment effects to the entire population of treated subjects. We describe an analytic solution to address the bias due to incomplete matching. Our method is based on using optimal or nearest neighbor matching, rather than caliper matching (which frequently results in the exclusion of some treated subjects). Within the sample matched on the propensity score, covariate adjustment using the propensity score is then employed to impute missing potential outcomes under lack of treatment for each treated subject. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we found that the proposed method resulted in estimates of treatment effect that were essentially unbiased. This method resulted in decreased bias compared to caliper matching alone and compared to either optimal matching or nearest neighbor matching alone. Caliper matching alone resulted in design bias or bias due to incomplete matching, while optimal matching or nearest neighbor matching alone resulted in bias due to residual confounding. The proposed method also tended to result in estimates with decreased mean squared error compared to when caliper matching was used. PMID:25038071

Analysis of Longitudinal Studies With Repeated Outcome Measures: Adjusting for Time-Dependent Confounding Using Conventional Methods.

PubMed

Keogh, Ruth H; Daniel, Rhian M; VanderWeele, Tyler J; Vansteelandt, Stijn

2018-05-01

Estimation of causal effects of time-varying exposures using longitudinal data is a common problem in epidemiology. When there are time-varying confounders, which may include past outcomes, affected by prior exposure, standard regression methods can lead to bias. Methods such as inverse probability weighted estimation of marginal structural models have been developed to address this problem. However, in this paper we show how standard regression methods can be used, even in the presence of time-dependent confounding, to estimate the total effect of an exposure on a subsequent outcome by controlling appropriately for prior exposures, outcomes, and time-varying covariates. We refer to the resulting estimation approach as sequential conditional mean models (SCMMs), which can be fitted using generalized estimating equations. We outline this approach and describe how including propensity score adjustment is advantageous. We compare the causal effects being estimated using SCMMs and marginal structural models, and we compare the two approaches using simulations. SCMMs enable more precise inferences, with greater robustness against model misspecification via propensity score adjustment, and easily accommodate continuous exposures and interactions. A new test for direct effects of past exposures on a subsequent outcome is described.

A review of the application of propensity score methods yielded increasing use, advantages in specific settings, but not substantially different estimates compared with conventional multivariable methods

PubMed Central

Stürmer, Til; Joshi, Manisha; Glynn, Robert J.; Avorn, Jerry; Rothman, Kenneth J.; Schneeweiss, Sebastian

2006-01-01

Objective Propensity score analyses attempt to control for confounding in non-experimental studies by adjusting for the likelihood that a given patient is exposed. Such analyses have been proposed to address confounding by indication, but there is little empirical evidence that they achieve better control than conventional multivariate outcome modeling. Study design and methods Using PubMed and Science Citation Index, we assessed the use of propensity scores over time and critically evaluated studies published through 2003. Results Use of propensity scores increased from a total of 8 papers before 1998 to 71 in 2003. Most of the 177 published studies abstracted assessed medications (N=60) or surgical interventions (N=51), mainly in cardiology and cardiac surgery (N=90). Whether PS methods or conventional outcome models were used to control for confounding had little effect on results in those studies in which such comparison was possible. Only 9 out of 69 studies (13%) had an effect estimate that differed by more than 20% from that obtained with a conventional outcome model in all PS analyses presented. Conclusions Publication of results based on propensity score methods has increased dramatically, but there is little evidence that these methods yield substantially different estimates compared with conventional multivariable methods. PMID:16632131

Longitudinal Monitoring of Patients With Chronic Low Back Pain During Physical Therapy Treatment Using the STarT Back Screening Tool.

PubMed

Medeiros, Flávia Cordeiro; Costa, Leonardo Oliveira Pena; Added, Marco Aurélio Nemitalla; Salomão, Evelyn Cassia; Costa, Lucíola da Cunha Menezes

2017-05-01

Study Design Preplanned secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial. Background The STarT Back Screening Tool (SBST) was developed to screen and to classify patients with low back pain into subgroups for the risk of having a poor prognosis. However, this classification at baseline does not take into account variables that can influence the prognosis during treatment or over time. Objectives (1) To investigate the changes in risk subgroup measured by the SBST over a period of 6 months, and (2) to assess the long-term predictive ability of the SBST when administered at different time points. Methods Patients with chronic nonspecific low back pain (n = 148) receiving physical therapy care as part of a randomized trial were analyzed. Pain intensity, disability, global perceived effect, and the SBST were collected at baseline, 5 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months. Changes in SBST risk classification were calculated. Hierarchical linear regression models adjusted for potential confounders were built to analyze the predictive capabilities of the SBST when administered at different time points. Results A large proportion of patients (60.8%) changed their risk subgroup after receiving physical therapy care. The SBST improved the prediction for all 6-month outcomes when using the 5-week risk subgroup and the difference between baseline and 5-week subgroup, after controlling for potential confounders. The SBST at baseline did not improve the predictive ability of the models after adjusting for confounders. Conclusion This study shows that many patients change SBST risk subgroup after receiving physical therapy care, and that the predictive ability of the SBST in patients with chronic low back pain increases when administered at different time points. Level of Evidence Prognosis, 2b. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2017;47(5):314-323. Epub 29 Mar 2017. doi:10.2519/jospt.2017.7199.

Reanalysis of mortality from lung cancer among diatomaceous earth industry workers, with consideration of potential confounding by asbestos exposure.

PubMed Central

Checkoway, H; Heyer, N J; Demers, P A; Gibbs, G W

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential for confounding from asbestos exposure, primarily chrysotile, on the relation between crystalline silica and mortality from lung cancer among diatomaceous earth (diatomite) workers. METHODS: A reanalysis of a cohort mortality study of diatomite workers was performed to take into account quantitative estimates of asbestos exposure. The reanalysis was limited to a subset of the original cohort, comprising 2266 white men for whom asbestos exposure could be reconstructed with greatest confidence. Comparisons between mortality from lung cancer (standardised mortality ratios (SMR)) were made between rates for 1942-87 for United States white men, and workers cross classified according to cumulative exposures to crystalline silica and asbestos. Comparisons of internal rates, involving Poisson regression modeling, were conducted for exposure to crystalline silica, with and without adjustment for asbestos exposure. Exposures were lagged by 15 years to take into account disease latency. RESULTS: There was an overall excess of lung cancer (SMR 1.41; 52 observed). The SMRs for four categories of increasing crystalline silica among the workers not exposed to asbestos were 1.13, 0.87, 2.14, 2.00. An SMR of 8.31 (three observed) was found for workers with the highest cumulative exposure to both dusts. Internal analysis, after adjustment for asbestos exposure, yielded rate ratios for categories of exposure to crystalline silica: 1.00 (reference), 1.37, 1.80, and 1.79. CONCLUSIONS: Asbestos exposure was not an important confounder of the association between crystalline silica and mortality from lung cancer in this cohort. Although based on a small number of deaths from lung cancer, the data suggest possible synergy between these exposures. An extended follow up of this cohort is in progress and should enable better assessments of independent and combined effects on risk of lung cancer. PMID:8882123

Type A personality, hostility, time urgency and unintentional injuries among Chinese undergraduates: a matched case–control study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Associations between type A behaviour pattern (TABP) and injuries are inconsistent. These inconsistencies may be due to different effects of various components of TABP, namely time urgency/impatience, hostility and competitive drive. It is important to examine the relationship between the global TABP, its two components, and unintentional injuries, among undergraduates in China. Methods On the basis of a previous cross-sectional study, we conducted a matched case–control study. 253 cases and an equal number of age-, gender-, and major-matched controls were included. The questionnaire solicited socio-demographic information, the experience of injuries, the scale of TABP, and other potential confounding factors. Besides the correlation between the global TABP and injuries, the influences of the two components of TABP on injuries were also evaluated. Conditional logistic regression was used to determine the crude odds ratios (ORs) and adjusted ORs of injury events. Results A dose–response relationship was apparent among students who rated themselves higher on the TABP scale (P-value for trend, 0.002), with a crude OR of 2.93 (95% CI: 0.93–9.19) for injuries comparing those with TABP to those with type B behaviour pattern (TBBP). After adjustment for potential confounding factors, TABP remained statistically significant, and the adjusted OR was 5.52 (95% CI: 1.43–21.27); from a comparison of students with TABP to those with TBBP. A dose–response relationship was also apparent between the hostility component and nonfatal injuries, both in crude analysis and after adjusting for other confounders. The relationship between time-hurry and injuries was not statistically significant, based on univariate and multivariate analyses. Conclusions Both the global TABP and the hostility component were associated with a dose response increase in the risk of non-fatal unintentional injuries among Chinese undergraduates. Further studies need to be conducted to confirm or reject this correlation. PMID:24219492

Adherence to the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet in relation to obesity among Iranian female nurses.

PubMed

Barak, Farzaneh; Falahi, Ebrahim; Keshteli, Ammar Hassanzadeh; Yazdannik, Ahmadreza; Esmaillzadeh, Ahmad

2015-03-01

Limited observational studies have considered habitual consumption of the general population to examine the relationship between the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) diet and obesity. The aim of the present study was to investigate adherence to the DASH diet in relation to general and central obesity among female nurses in Isfahan, Iran. Cross-sectional study carried out among 293 female nurses aged >30 years who were selected by a multistage, cluster random sampling method. Usual dietary intakes were assessed using a validated FFQ. We constructed the DASH score based on foods and nutrients emphasized or minimized in the DASH diet, focusing on eight components: high intake of fruits, vegetables, nuts and legumes, low-fat dairy products and whole grains and low intakes of sodium, sweetened beverages, and red and processed meats. General and abdominal obesity were defined as BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2 and waist circumference ≥ 88 cm, respectively. Isfahan, Iran. Female nurses (n 293) aged >30 years. Increased adherence to the DASH diet was associated with older age (P<0.01) and lower waist circumference (P=0.04). There was no statistically significant difference in the prevalence of general obesity between extreme quartiles of the DASH diet score. After adjustment for age, energy intake and other confounding factors, DASH diet score was not significantly associated with obesity. However, with further controlling for other dietary factors, those in the highest quartile of DASH diet score were 71 % less likely to have general obesity compared with those in the lowest quartile. In addition, following a DASH diet was inversely associated with central obesity after adjustment for potential confounders (OR=0.37; 95 % CI 0.14, 0.96). We found that adherence to the DASH diet was inversely related to central obesity among Iranian adult females. This association remained significant even after adjustment for potential confounders.

Risk of autism spectrum disorder in offspring following paternal use of selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors before conception: a population-based cohort study

PubMed Central

Yang, Fen; Chen, Jianping; Miao, Mao-Hua; Yuan, Wei; Li, Lin; Liang, Hong; Ehrenstein, Vera; Li, Jiong

2017-01-01

Objective The present study aimed to examine the association between paternal selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI) use before conception and the risk of autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in offspring. Design A population-based cohort study. Methods We conducted a cohort study of 669 922 children born from 1998 to 2008, with follow-up throughout 2013. Based on Danish national registers, we linked information on paternal use of SSRIs, ASD diagnosed in children and a range of potential confounders. The children whose fathers used SSRIs during the last 3 months prior to conception were identified as the exposed. Cox regression model was used to estimate the HR for ASD in children. Results Compared with unexposed children, the exposed had a 1.62-fold higher risk of ASD (95% CI 1.33 to 1.96) and the risk attenuated after adjusting for potential confounders, especially fathers’ psychiatric conditions (HR=1.43, 95% CI 1.18 to 1.74). When extending the exposure window to 1 year before conception, the increased risk persisted in children of fathers using SSRIs only from the last year until the last 3 months prior to conception (HR=1.54, 95% CI 1.21 to 1.94) but not in children of fathers using SSRIs only during the last 3 months prior to conception (HR=1.17, 95% CI 0.75 to 1.82). We also performed stratified analyses according to paternal history of affective disorders and observed no increased ASD risk among children whose father had affective disorders. Besides, the sibling analysis showed that the ASD risk did not increase among exposed children compared with their unexposed siblings. Conclusions The mildly increased risk of ASD in the offspring associated with paternal SSRI use before conception may be attributable to paternal underlying psychiatric indications related to SSRI use or other unmeasured confounding factors. PMID:29275337

Tutorial in Biostatistics: Instrumental Variable Methods for Causal Inference*

PubMed Central

Baiocchi, Michael; Cheng, Jing; Small, Dylan S.

2014-01-01

A goal of many health studies is to determine the causal effect of a treatment or intervention on health outcomes. Often, it is not ethically or practically possible to conduct a perfectly randomized experiment and instead an observational study must be used. A major challenge to the validity of observational studies is the possibility of unmeasured confounding (i.e., unmeasured ways in which the treatment and control groups differ before treatment administration which also affect the outcome). Instrumental variables analysis is a method for controlling for unmeasured confounding. This type of analysis requires the measurement of a valid instrumental variable, which is a variable that (i) is independent of the unmeasured confounding; (ii) affects the treatment; and (iii) affects the outcome only indirectly through its effect on the treatment. This tutorial discusses the types of causal effects that can be estimated by instrumental variables analysis; the assumptions needed for instrumental variables analysis to provide valid estimates of causal effects and sensitivity analysis for those assumptions; methods of estimation of causal effects using instrumental variables; and sources of instrumental variables in health studies. PMID:24599889

Factors Influencing Observed Tillage Impacts on Herbicide Transport

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The widespread use and potential human health effects of the herbicides atrazine and glyphosate have generated interest in establishing how no-tillage impacts loading of these herbicides to runoff water in comparison to other tillage practices. In this study, potentially confounding factors such as ...

Catchment-wide wetland assessment and prioritization using the multi-criteria decision-making method TOPSIS.

PubMed

Liu, Canran; Frazier, Paul; Kumar, Lalit; Macgregor, Catherine; Blake, Nigel

2006-08-01

It is widely accepted that wetland ecosystems are under threat worldwide. Many communities are now trying to establish wetland rehabilitation programs, but are confounded by a lack of objective information on wetland condition or significance. In this study, a multi-criteria decision-making method, TOPSIS (the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), was adapted to assist in the role of assessing wetland condition and rehabilitation priority in the Clarence River Catchment (New South Wales, Australia). Using 13 GIS data layers that described wetland character, wetland protection, and wetland threats, the wetlands were ranked in terms of condition. Through manipulation of the original model, the wetlands were prioritized for rehabilitation. The method offered a screening tool for the managers in choosing potential candidate wetlands for rehabilitation in a region.

The effect of ambient lighting on Laser Doppler Imaging of a standardized cutaneous injury model

PubMed Central

Pham, Alan Chuong Q; Hei, Erik La; Harvey, John G; Holland, Andrew JA

2017-01-01

Objective: The aim of this study was to investigate the potential confounding effects of four different types of ambient lighting on the results of Laser Doppler Imaging (LDI) of a standardized cutaneous injury model. Methods: After applying a mechanical stimulus to the anterior forearm of a healthy volunteer and inducing a wheal and arteriolar flare (the Triple response), we used a Laser Doppler Line Scanner (LDLS) to image the forearm under four different types of ambient lighting: light-emitting-diode (LED), compact fluorescent lighting (CFL), halogen, daylight, and darkness as a control. A spectrometer was used to measure the intensity of light energy at 785 nm, the wavelength used by the scanner for measurement under each type of ambient lighting. Results: Neither the LED nor CFL bulbs emitted detectable light energy at a wavelength of 785 nm. The color-based representation of arbitrary perfusion unit (APU) values of the Triple response measured by the scanner was similar between darkness, LED, and CFL light. Daylight emitted 2 mW at 785 nm, with a slight variation tending more towards lower APU values compared to darkness. Halogen lighting emitted 6 mW of light energy at 785 nm rendering the color-based representation impossible to interpret. Conclusions: Halogen lighting and daylight have the potential to confound results of LDI of cutaneous injuries whereas LED and CFL lighting did not. Any potential sources of daylight should be reduced and halogen lighting completely covered or turned off prior to wound imaging. PMID:29348978

Depressive Symptoms and Salivary Telomere Length in a Probability Sample of Middle-Aged and Older Adults

PubMed Central

Whisman, Mark A.; Richardson, Emily D.

2016-01-01

Objective To examine the association between depressive symptoms and salivary telomere length in a probability sample of middle-aged and older adults, evaluate age and sex as potential moderators of this association, and test whether this association was incremental to potential confounds. Methods Participants were 3,609 individuals from the 2008 wave of the Health and Retirement Study. Telomere length assays were performed using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) on DNA extracted from saliva samples. Depressive symptoms were assessed via interview, and health and lifestyle factors, traumatic life events, and neuroticism were assessed via self-report. Regression analyses were conducted to examine the associations between predictor variables and salivary telomere length. Results After adjusting for demographics, depressive symptoms were negatively associated with salivary telomere length (b = −.003, p = .014). Furthermore, this association was moderated by sex (b = .005, p = .011), such that depressive symptoms were significantly and negatively associated with salivary telomere length for men (b = −.006, p < .001) but not for women (b = −.001, p = .644). The negative association between depressive symptoms and salivary telomere length in men remained statistically significant after additionally adjusting for cigarette smoking, body mass index, chronic health conditions, childhood and lifetime exposure to traumatic life events, and neuroticism. Conclusions Higher levels of depressive symptoms were associated with shorter salivary telomeres in men and this association was incremental to several potential confounds. Shortened telomeres may help account for the association between depression and poor physical health and mortality. PMID:28029664

A framework for a critical assessment of the quality of epidemiological studies of driver health and accident risk.

PubMed

Elvik, Rune

2011-11-01

A large number of studies have tried to assess how various aspects of driver health influence driver involvement in accidents. The objective of this paper is to provide a framework for a critical assessment of the quality these studies from a methodological point of view. Examples are given of how various sources of bias and confounding can produce study findings that are highly misleading. Ten potential sources of error and bias in epidemiological studies of the contribution of driver health impairments to road accidents are discussed: (1) Poor description of the medical conditions whose effects are studied (measurement error). (2) Inadequate control for the effects of exposure on accident rate. (3) Sampling endogeneity with respect to assessment for fitness to drive (outcome-based sampling; self-selection bias). (4) Combined exposure to several risk factors. (5) Poor control for potentially confounding factors. (6) Failure to specify potentially moderating factors (interaction effects). (7) Failure to consider a severity gradient with respect to the effect of health impairments. (8) Failure to specify the compliance of drivers with medical treatments or treatment effectiveness. (9) No data on the population prevalence of various health conditions. (10) The use of multiple study approaches and methods making the comparison and synthesis of findings difficult. Examples are given of how all these items may influence the findings of a single study or make synthesising findings from multiple studies difficult. A checklist for assessing study quality is provided. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Association between depression and glycemic control among type 2 diabetes patients in Lima, Peru

PubMed Central

Crispín‐Trebejo, Brenda; Bernabé‐Ortiz, Antonio

2015-01-01

Abstract Introduction There is limited and controversial information regarding the potential impact of depression on glycemic control. This study aims to evaluate the association between depression and poor glycemic control. In addition, the prevalence of depression and rates of poor glycemic control were determined. Methods Cross‐sectional study performed in the endocrinology unit of two hospitals of ESSALUD in Peru. The outcome of interest was poor glycemic control, evaluated by glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c: < 7% versus ≥ 7%), whereas the exposure of interest was depression defined as 15 or more points in the Patient Health Questionnaire‐9 tool. The association of interest was evaluated using Poisson regression models with robust standard errors reporting prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) adjusting for potential confounders. Results A total of 277 participants, 184 (66.4%) males, mean age 59.0 (SD: 4.8), and 7.1 (SD: 6.8) years of disease were analyzed. Only 31 participants (11.2%; 95% CI: 7.5%–14.9%) had moderately severe or severe depression, whereas 70 (25.3%; 95% CI 20.3%–30.8%) had good glycemic control. Depression increased the probability of having poor glycemic control (PR = 1.32; 95% CI 1.15–1.51) after adjusting for several potential confounders. Conclusions There is an association between depression and poor glycemic control among type 2 diabetes patients. Our results suggest that early detection of depression might be important to facilitate appropriate glycemic control and avoid further metabolic complications. PMID:26037488

The epidemiology of bovine respiratory disease: What is the evidence for preventive measures?

PubMed Central

Taylor, Jared D.; Fulton, Robert W.; Lehenbauer, Terry W.; Step, Douglas L.; Confer, Anthony W.

2010-01-01

Bovine respiratory disease (BRD) is the most common and costly disease of beef cattle in North America. Despite extensive research, industry practices are often more informed by dogma than by fact. Frequently advocated interventions, including vaccination, various processing procedures, and nutritional manipulation, have limited impact on morbidity and mortality. Evidence for use of oral antimicrobials, either in feed or water, appears to be equivocal. In contrast, preconditioning and metaphylaxis have significant scientific evidence of efficacy, with weaning prior to sale potentially being the most important component of preconditioning. The inability to reach more definitive conclusions in preventing BRD may be attributable to difficulties in investigating the disease. Study challenges include potential for extensive confounding, tremendous variability, the multi-factorial nature of the disease, and inadequate methods for diagnosis. PMID:21358927

Two Clinical Phenotypes in Polycythemia Vera

PubMed Central

Spivak, Jerry L.; Considine, Michael; Williams, Donna M.; Talbot, Conover C.; Rogers, Ophelia; Moliterno, Alison R.; Jie, Chunfa; Ochs, Michael F.

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND Polycythemia vera is the ultimate phenotypic consequence of the V617F mutation in Janus kinase 2 (encoded by JAK2), but the extent to which this mutation influences the behavior of the involved CD34+ hematopoietic stem cells is unknown. METHODS We analyzed gene expression in CD34+ peripheral-blood cells from 19 patients with polycythemia vera, using oligonucleotide microarray technology after correcting for potential confounding by sex, since the phenotypic features of the disease differ between men and women. RESULTS Men with polycythemia vera had twice as many up-regulated or down-regulated genes as women with polycythemia vera, in a comparison of gene expression in the patients and in healthy persons of the same sex, but there were 102 genes with differential regulation that was concordant in men and women. When these genes were used for class discovery by means of unsupervised hierarchical clustering, the 19 patients could be divided into two groups that did not differ significantly with respect to age, neutrophil JAK2 V617F allele burden, white-cell count, platelet count, or clonal dominance. However, they did differ significantly with respect to disease duration; hemoglobin level; frequency of thromboembolic events, palpable splenomegaly, and splenectomy; chemotherapy exposure; leukemic transformation; and survival. The unsupervised clustering was confirmed by a supervised approach with the use of a top-scoring-pair classifier that segregated the 19 patients into the same two phenotypic groups with 100% accuracy. CONCLUSIONS Removing sex as a potential confounder, we identified an accurate molecular method for classifying patients with polycythemia vera according to disease behavior, independently of their JAK2 V617F allele burden, and identified previously unrecognized molecular pathways in polycythemia vera outside the canonical JAK2 pathway that may be amenable to targeted therapy. PMID:25162887

Exposure to aircraft and road traffic noise and associations with heart disease and stroke in six European countries: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Although a number of studies have found an association between aircraft noise and hypertension, there is a lack of evidence on associations with other cardiovascular disease. For road traffic noise, more studies are available but the extent of possible confounding by air pollution has not been established. Methods This study used data from the Hypertension and Environmental Noise near Airports (HYENA) study. Cross-sectional associations between self-reported ‘heart disease and stroke’ and aircraft noise and road traffic noise were examined using data collected between 2004 and 2006 on 4712 participants (276 cases), who lived near airports in six European countries (UK, Germany, Netherlands, Sweden, Greece, Italy). Data were available to assess potential confounding by NO2 air pollution in a subsample of three countries (UK, Netherlands, Sweden). Results An association between night-time average aircraft noise and ‘heart disease and stroke’ was found after adjustment for socio-demographic confounders for participants who had lived in the same place for ≥ 20 years (odds ratio (OR): 1.25 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03, 1.51) per 10 dB (A)); this association was robust to adjustment for exposure to air pollution in the subsample. 24 hour average road traffic noise exposure was associated with ‘heart disease and stroke’ (OR: 1.19 (95% CI 1.00, 1.41), but adjustment for air pollution in the subsample suggested this may have been due to confounding by air pollution. Statistical assessment (correlations and variance inflation factor) suggested only modest collinearity between noise and NO2 exposures. Conclusions Exposure to aircraft noise over many years may increase risks of heart disease and stroke, although more studies are needed to establish how much the risks associated with road traffic noise may be explained by air pollution. PMID:24131577

A Novel, Ecologically Relevant, Highly Preferred, and Non-invasive Means of Oral Substance Administration for Rodents

PubMed Central

Sobolewski, Marissa; Allen, Joshua L.; Morris-Schaffer, Keith; Klocke, Carolyn; Conrad, Katherine; Cory-Slechta, Deborah A.

2017-01-01

Prenatal stress and nutrition are well-known to alter a broad range of physiological systems, notably metabolic, endocrine and neurobehavioral function. Commonly used methods for oral administration of xenobiotics can, by acting as a stressor or altering normal nutrition intake, alter these physiological systems as well. Taken together, oral administration methods may unintentionally introduce confounding physiological effects that can mask or enhance toxicity of xenobiotics, particularly if they share biological targets. Consequently, it should be preferable to develop alternative methods without these potential confounds. The aim of this study was to determine the suitability of mealworms as an alternative treat-based method to deliver xenobiotics via the orogastric route. Accurate oral administration is contingent on motivation and preference; mice reliably preferred mealworms over wafer cookie treats. Further, ingestion of wafer cookies significantly increased mouse blood glucose levels, whereas unaltered mealworms produced no such change. Mealworms functioned effectively to orally administer glucose, as glucose-spiked mealworms produced a rise in blood glucose equivalent to the ingestion of the wafer cookie. Mealworms did not interfere with the physiological function of orally administered d-amphetamine, as both mealworm and oral gavage administered d-amphetamine showed similar alterations in locomotor behavior (mice did not fully consume d-amphetamine-dosed cookies and thus could not be compared). Collectively, the findings indicate that mealworms are a preferred and readily consumed treat, which importantly mimics environmental-relevant nutritional intake, and mealworms per se do not alter glucose metabolic pathways. Additionally, mealworms accurately delivered xenobiotics into blood circulation and did not interfere with the physiological function of administered xenobiotics. Thus mealworm-based oral administration may be a preferable and accurate route of xenobiotic administration that eliminates physiological alterations associated with other methods of delivery. PMID:27094606

A novel, ecologically relevant, highly preferred, and non-invasive means of oral substance administration for rodents.

PubMed

Sobolewski, Marissa; Allen, Joshua L; Morris-Schaffer, Keith; Klocke, Carolyn; Conrad, Katherine; Cory-Slechta, Deborah A

2016-01-01

Prenatal stress and nutrition are well-known to alter a broad range of physiological systems, notably metabolic, endocrine and neurobehavioral function. Commonly used methods for oral administration of xenobiotics can, by acting as a stressor or altering normal nutrition intake, alter these physiological systems as well. Taken together, oral administration methods may unintentionally introduce confounding physiological effects that can mask or enhance toxicity of xenobiotics, particularly if they share biological targets. Consequently, it should be preferable to develop alternative methods without these potential confounds. The aim of this study was to determine the suitability of mealworms as an alternative treat-based method to deliver xenobiotics via the orogastric route. Accurate oral administration is contingent on motivation and preference; mice reliably preferred mealworms over wafer cookie treats. Further, ingestion of wafer cookies significantly increased mouse blood glucose levels, whereas unaltered mealworms produced no such change. Mealworms functioned effectively to orally administer glucose, as glucose-spiked mealworms produced a rise in blood glucose equivalent to the ingestion of the wafer cookie. Mealworms did not interfere with the physiological function of orally administered d-amphetamine, as both mealworm and oral gavage administered d-amphetamine showed similar alterations in locomotor behavior (mice did not fully consume d-amphetamine-dosed cookies and thus could not be compared). Collectively, the findings indicate that mealworms are a preferred and readily consumed treat, which importantly mimics environmental-relevant nutritional intake, and mealworms per se do not alter glucose metabolic pathways. Additionally, mealworms accurately delivered xenobiotics into blood circulation and did not interfere with the physiological function of administered xenobiotics. Thus mealworm-based oral administration may be a preferable and accurate route of xenobiotic administration that eliminates physiological alterations associated with other methods of delivery. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Efficient and accurate causal inference with hidden confounders from genome-transcriptome variation data

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Mapping gene expression as a quantitative trait using whole genome-sequencing and transcriptome analysis allows to discover the functional consequences of genetic variation. We developed a novel method and ultra-fast software Findr for higly accurate causal inference between gene expression traits using cis-regulatory DNA variations as causal anchors, which improves current methods by taking into consideration hidden confounders and weak regulations. Findr outperformed existing methods on the DREAM5 Systems Genetics challenge and on the prediction of microRNA and transcription factor targets in human lymphoblastoid cells, while being nearly a million times faster. Findr is publicly available at https://github.com/lingfeiwang/findr. PMID:28821014

Breast milk and cognitive development—the role of confounders: a systematic review

PubMed Central

Walfisch, Asnat; Sermer, Corey; Cressman, Alex; Koren, Gideon

2013-01-01

Objectives The association between breastfeeding and child cognitive development is conflicted by studies reporting positive and null effects. This relationship may be confounded by factors associated with breastfeeding, specifically maternal socioeconomic class and IQ. Design Systematic review of the literature. Setting and participants Any prospective or retrospective study, in any language, evaluating the association between breastfeeding and cognitive development using a validated method in healthy term infants, children or adults, was included. Primary and secondary outcome measures Extracted data included the study design, target population and sample size, breastfeeding exposure, cognitive development assessment tool used and participants’ age, summary of the results prior to, and following, adjustment for confounders, and all confounders adjusted for. Study quality was assessed as well. Results 84 studies met our inclusion criteria (34 rated as high quality, 26 moderate and 24 low quality). Critical assessment of accepted studies revealed the following associations: 21 null, 28 positive, 18 null after adjusting for confounders and 17 positive—diminished after adjusting for confounders. Directionality of effect did not correlate with study quality; however, studies showing a decreased effect after multivariate analysis were of superior quality compared with other study groupings (14/17 high quality, 82%). Further, studies that showed null or diminished effect after multivariate analysis corrected for significantly more confounders (7.7±3.4) as compared with those that found no change following adjustment (5.6±4.5, p=0.04). The majority of included studies were carried out during childhood (75%) and set in high-income countries (85.5%). Conclusions Much of the reported effect of breastfeeding on child neurodevelopment is due to confounding. It is unlikely that additional work will change the current synthesis. Future studies should attempt to rigorously control for all important confounders. Alternatively, study designs using sibling cohorts discordant for breastfeeding may yield more robust conclusions. PMID:23975102

Case-control studies of the efficacy of cancer screening: overcoming bias from nonrandom patterns of screening.

PubMed

Weiss, Noel S; Dhillon, Preet K; Etzioni, Ruth

2004-07-01

A case-control study of the efficacy of cancer screening, like any other case-control study, must deal with potential confounding. There are 2 categories of confounding variables that pose special problems for studies of screening: (1) age and calendar time resulting from different temporal distributions of screening between cases and controls irrespective of whether the screening test leads to a reduction in mortality; and (2) the administration of other screening tests for the cancer in question when it is not clear whether the result of the other test had a bearing on the decision to order the test under study. We describe circumstances in which confounding from these sources can be dealt with satisfactorily by means of restriction or adjustment, and other circumstances in which it cannot. Copyright 2004 Lippincott Williams and Wilkins

Ultrasound Elastography and MR Elastography for Assessing Liver Fibrosis: Part 2, Diagnostic Performance, Confounders, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Tang, An; Cloutier, Guy; Szeverenyi, Nikolaus M.; Sirlin, Claude B.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE The purpose of the article is to review the diagnostic performance of ultrasound and MR elastography techniques for detection and staging of liver fibrosis, the main current clinical applications of elastography in the abdomen. CONCLUSION Technical and instrument-related factors and biologic and patient-related factors may constitute potential confounders of stiffness measurements for assessment of liver fibrosis. Future developments may expand the scope of elastography for monitoring liver fibrosis and predict complications of chronic liver disease. PMID:25905762

Association analysis using next-generation sequence data from publicly available control groups: the robust variance score statistic

PubMed Central

Derkach, Andriy; Chiang, Theodore; Gong, Jiafen; Addis, Laura; Dobbins, Sara; Tomlinson, Ian; Houlston, Richard; Pal, Deb K.; Strug, Lisa J.

2014-01-01

Motivation: Sufficiently powered case–control studies with next-generation sequence (NGS) data remain prohibitively expensive for many investigators. If feasible, a more efficient strategy would be to include publicly available sequenced controls. However, these studies can be confounded by differences in sequencing platform; alignment, single nucleotide polymorphism and variant calling algorithms; read depth; and selection thresholds. Assuming one can match cases and controls on the basis of ethnicity and other potential confounding factors, and one has access to the aligned reads in both groups, we investigate the effect of systematic differences in read depth and selection threshold when comparing allele frequencies between cases and controls. We propose a novel likelihood-based method, the robust variance score (RVS), that substitutes genotype calls by their expected values given observed sequence data. Results: We show theoretically that the RVS eliminates read depth bias in the estimation of minor allele frequency. We also demonstrate that, using simulated and real NGS data, the RVS method controls Type I error and has comparable power to the ‘gold standard’ analysis with the true underlying genotypes for both common and rare variants. Availability and implementation: An RVS R script and instructions can be found at strug.research.sickkids.ca, and at https://github.com/strug-lab/RVS. Contact: lisa.strug@utoronto.ca Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:24733292

Party package travel: alcohol use and related problems in a holiday resort: a mixed methods study

PubMed Central

Hesse, Morten; Tutenges, Sébastien; Schliewe, Sanna; Reinholdt, Tine

2008-01-01

Background People travelling abroad tend to increase their use of alcohol and other drugs. In the present study we describe organized party activities in connection with young tourists' drinking, and the differences between young people travelling with and without organized party activities. Methods We conducted ethnographic observations and a cross-sectional survey in Sunny Beach, Bulgaria. Results The behaviour of the guides from two travel agencies strongly promoted heavy drinking, but discouraged illicit drug use. Even after controlling for several potential confounders, young people who travelled with such "party package travel agencies" were more likely to drink 12 or more units when going out. In univariate analyses, they were also more likely to get into fights, but were not more likely to seek medical assistance or medical assistance for an accident or an alcohol-related problem. After controlling for confounders, the association between type of travel agency and getting into fights was no longer significant. Short-term consequences of drinking in the holiday resort did not differ between party package travellers and ordinary package travellers. Conclusion There may be a small impact of party package travels on young people's drinking. Strategies could be developed used to minimise the harm associated with both party package travel and other kinds of travel where heavy substance use is likely to occur. PMID:18840273

Effectiveness and confounding factors of penetrating astigmatic keratotomy in clinical practice

PubMed Central

Yen, Chu-Yu; Tseng, Gow-Lieng

2018-01-01

Abstract Rationale: Penetrating astigmatic keratotomy (penetrating AK) is a well-known method to correct corneal astigmatism but rarely be performed nowadays. This article reevaluated the clinical effectiveness and confounding factors of penetrating AK. Patient concerns: Penetrating AK has been introduced to serve as one alternative operation for astigmatism correction, and is thought to have the potential advantage of being more affordable and easy to perform. The purpose of our study is to evaluate the effectiveness and confounding factors of penetrating AK. Diagnoses: The chart of 95 patients with corneal astigmatism (range: 0.75–3.25 diopters [D]) who received penetrating AK from January 2014 to December 2016 was collected. The corneal astigmatism were measured by an autokeratometer (Topcon KR8100PA topographer-autorefractor), and repeated with manual keratometer in low reproducibility cases. Interventions: All patients received penetrating AK by an experienced ophthalmologist (Dr. Gow-Lieng Tseng, MD, PHD) in the operation room. Among which, 66 patients received penetrating AK with phacoemulsification simultaneously (group A), whereas 29 patients received penetrating AK at least 3 months after phacoemulsification (group B). After excluding the patients combined with other procedures or lost followed up, 79 patients are remaining for analysis. The outcome was evaluated by net correction, the difference between preoperative corneal astigmatism (PCA) and residual corneal astigmatism (RCA). Two sample t tests and Pearson test were used for effectiveness evaluation. For confounding factors, multivariate linear regression was used for statistical analysis. Outcomes: The mean preoperative and postoperative refractive cylinders were 1.97 ± 0.77 and 1.08 ± 0.64 D, respectively, in group A and 2.62 ± 1.05 and 1.51 ± 0.89 D in group B. There were no statistically significant differences in net correction between these two groups (0.9 ± 0.66 vs. 1.1 ± 0.69, P = .214). Higher PCA were associated with higher net correction in both group A (P = .002) and group B (P = .019). Compound myopic astigmatism caused less net correction than others only in group A (P = 0.031). Lessons: Penetrating AK is an accessible, affordable, and effective way to correct corneal astigmatism. The results of this procedure are comparable to modern methods in patients with low to moderate corneal astigmatism. PMID:29369200

Correction of confounding bias in non-randomized studies by appropriate weighting.

PubMed

Schmoor, Claudia; Gall, Christine; Stampf, Susanne; Graf, Erika

2011-03-01

In non-randomized studies, the assessment of a causal effect of treatment or exposure on outcome is hampered by possible confounding. Applying multiple regression models including the effects of treatment and covariates on outcome is the well-known classical approach to adjust for confounding. In recent years other approaches have been promoted. One of them is based on the propensity score and considers the effect of possible confounders on treatment as a relevant criterion for adjustment. Another proposal is based on using an instrumental variable. Here inference relies on a factor, the instrument, which affects treatment but is thought to be otherwise unrelated to outcome, so that it mimics randomization. Each of these approaches can basically be interpreted as a simple reweighting scheme, designed to address confounding. The procedures will be compared with respect to their fundamental properties, namely, which bias they aim to eliminate, which effect they aim to estimate, and which parameter is modelled. We will expand our overview of methods for analysis of non-randomized studies to methods for analysis of randomized controlled trials and show that analyses of both study types may target different effects and different parameters. The considerations will be illustrated using a breast cancer study with a so-called Comprehensive Cohort Study design, including a randomized controlled trial and a non-randomized study in the same patient population as sub-cohorts. This design offers ideal opportunities to discuss and illustrate the properties of the different approaches. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Causal mediation analysis with a binary outcome and multiple continuous or ordinal mediators: Simulations and application to an alcohol intervention.

PubMed

Nguyen, Trang Quynh; Webb-Vargas, Yenny; Koning, Ina M; Stuart, Elizabeth A

We investigate a method to estimate the combined effect of multiple continuous/ordinal mediators on a binary outcome: 1) fit a structural equation model with probit link for the outcome and identity/probit link for continuous/ordinal mediators, 2) predict potential outcome probabilities, and 3) compute natural direct and indirect effects. Step 2 involves rescaling the latent continuous variable underlying the outcome to address residual mediator variance/covariance. We evaluate the estimation of risk-difference- and risk-ratio-based effects (RDs, RRs) using the ML, WLSMV and Bayes estimators in Mplus. Across most variations in path-coefficient and mediator-residual-correlation signs and strengths, and confounding situations investigated, the method performs well with all estimators, but favors ML/WLSMV for RDs with continuous mediators, and Bayes for RRs with ordinal mediators. Bayes outperforms WLSMV/ML regardless of mediator type when estimating RRs with small potential outcome probabilities and in two other special cases. An adolescent alcohol prevention study is used for illustration.

The “Dry-Run” Analysis: A Method for Evaluating Risk Scores for Confounding Control

PubMed Central

Wyss, Richard; Hansen, Ben B.; Ellis, Alan R.; Gagne, Joshua J.; Desai, Rishi J.; Glynn, Robert J.; Stürmer, Til

2017-01-01

Abstract A propensity score (PS) model's ability to control confounding can be assessed by evaluating covariate balance across exposure groups after PS adjustment. The optimal strategy for evaluating a disease risk score (DRS) model's ability to control confounding is less clear. DRS models cannot be evaluated through balance checks within the full population, and they are usually assessed through prediction diagnostics and goodness-of-fit tests. A proposed alternative is the “dry-run” analysis, which divides the unexposed population into “pseudo-exposed” and “pseudo-unexposed” groups so that differences on observed covariates resemble differences between the actual exposed and unexposed populations. With no exposure effect separating the pseudo-exposed and pseudo-unexposed groups, a DRS model is evaluated by its ability to retrieve an unconfounded null estimate after adjustment in this pseudo-population. We used simulations and an empirical example to compare traditional DRS performance metrics with the dry-run validation. In simulations, the dry run often improved assessment of confounding control, compared with the C statistic and goodness-of-fit tests. In the empirical example, PS and DRS matching gave similar results and showed good performance in terms of covariate balance (PS matching) and controlling confounding in the dry-run analysis (DRS matching). The dry-run analysis may prove useful in evaluating confounding control through DRS models. PMID:28338910

External adjustment sensitivity analysis for unmeasured confounding: an application to coronary stent outcomes, Pennsylvania 2004-2008.

PubMed

Huesch, Marco D

2013-06-01

Assessing the real-world comparative effectiveness of common interventions is challenged by unmeasured confounding. To determine whether the mortality benefit shown for drug-eluting stents (DES) over bare metal stents (BMS) in observational studies persists after controls for/tests for confounding. Retrospective observational study involving 38,019 patients, 65 years or older admitted for an index percutaneous coronary intervention receiving DES or BMS in Pennsylvania in 2004-2005 followed up for death through 3 years. Analysis was at the patient level. Mortality was analyzed with Cox proportional hazards models allowing for stratification by disease severity or DES use propensity, accounting for clustering of patients. Instrumental variables analysis used lagged physician stent usage to proxy for the focal stent type decision. A method originating in work by Cornfield and others in 1954 and popularized by Greenland in 1996 was used to assess robustness to confounding. DES was associated with a significantly lower adjusted risk of death at 3 years in Cox and in instrumented analyses. An implausibly strong hypothetical unobserved confounder would be required to fully explain these results. Confounding by indication can bias observational studies. No strong evidence of such selection biases was found in the reduced risk of death among elderly patients receiving DES instead of BMS in a Pennsylvanian state-wide population. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Conceptualizing and measuring personality vulnerability to depression: comment on Coyne and Whiffen (1995).

PubMed

Zuroff, David C; Mongrain, Myriam; Santor, Darcy A

2004-05-01

J. C. Coyne and V. E. Whiffen (1995) reviewed research on personality vulnerability to depression, focusing on S. J. Blatt's (1974, 1990) concepts of dependency and self-criticism and A. T. Beck's (1983) concepts of sociotropy and autonomy. The authors discuss 6 issues raised in that review: (a) the typological or dimensional nature of vulnerability, (b) the theoretical implications of "mixed" vulnerability, (c) the relations of vulnerability to Neuroticism. (d) the potential confounding of vulnerability with concurrent depression, (e) the potential confounding of vulnerability with social context, and (f) the differentiation of dependency from relatedness. The authors conclude that Blatt's and Beck's concepts are continuous, nearly orthogonal dimensions that can be identified and measured independently from Neuroticism, depression, and social context. ((c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved)

Reproductive history and post-reproductive mortality: A sibling comparison analysis using Swedish register data.

PubMed

Barclay, Kieron; Keenan, Katherine; Grundy, Emily; Kolk, Martin; Myrskylä, Mikko

2016-04-01

A growing body of evidence suggests that reproductive history influences post-reproductive mortality. A potential explanation for this association is confounding by socioeconomic status in the family of origin, as socioeconomic status is related to both fertility behaviours and to long-term health. We examine the relationship between age at first birth, completed parity, and post-reproductive mortality and address the potential confounding role of family of origin. We use Swedish population register data for men and women born 1932-1960, and examine both all-cause and cause-specific mortality. The contributions of our study are the use of a sibling comparison design that minimizes residual confounding from shared family background characteristics and assessment of cause-specific mortality that can shed light on the mechanisms linking reproductive history to mortality. Our results were entirely consistent with previous research on this topic, with teenage first time parents having higher mortality, and the relationship between parity and mortality following a U-shaped pattern where childless men and women and those with five or more children had the highest mortality. These results indicate that selection into specific fertility behaviours based upon socioeconomic status and experiences within the family of origin does not explain the relationship between reproductive history and post-reproductive mortality. Additional analyses where we adjust for other lifecourse factors such as educational attainment, attained socioeconomic status, and post-reproductive marital history do not change the results. Our results add an important new level of robustness to the findings on reproductive history and mortality by showing that the association is robust to confounding by factors shared by siblings. However it is still uncertain whether reproductive history causally influences health, or whether other confounding factors such as childhood health or risk-taking propensity could explain the association. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Ethical considerations in adherence research.

PubMed

Patel, Nupur U; Moore, Blake A; Craver, Rebekah F; Feldman, Steven R

2016-01-01

Poor adherence to treatment is a common cause of medical treatment failure. Studying adherence is complicated by the potential for the study environment to impact adherence behavior. Studies performed without informing patients about adherence monitoring must balance the risks of deception against the potential benefits of the knowledge to be gained. Ethically monitoring a patient's adherence to a treatment plan without full disclosure of the monitoring plan requires protecting the patient's rights and upholding the fiduciary obligations of the investigator. Adherence monitoring can utilize different levels of deception varying from stealth monitoring, debriefing after the study while informing the subject that some information had been withheld in regard to the use of adherence monitoring (withholding), informed consent that discloses some form of adherence monitoring is being used and will be disclosed at the end of the study (authorized deception), and full disclosure. Different approaches offer different benefits and potential pitfalls. The approach used must balance the risk of nondisclosure against the potential for confounding the adherence monitoring data and the potential benefits that adherence monitoring data will have for the research subjects and/or other populations. This commentary aims to define various methods of adherence monitoring and to provide a discussion of the ethical considerations that accompany the use of each method and adherence monitoring in general as it is used in clinical research.

Divergent marijuana trajectories among men: Socioeconomic, relationship, and life satisfaction outcomes in the mid-30s

PubMed Central

White, Helene R.; Bechtold, Jordan; Loeber, Rolf; Pardini, Dustin

2016-01-01

Background Given recent changes in marijuana policy in the United States, it is important to understand the long-term effects of marijuana use on adult functioning. We examined whether men who displayed different trajectories of marijuana use from adolescence through emerging adulthood (age ~15–26) differed in terms of socioeconomic, social, and life satisfaction outcomes in their mid-30s. Methods Data came from a longitudinal sample of men who were recruited in early adolescence (N = 506) and followed into adulthood. Four trajectory groups based on patterns of marijuana use from adolescence into emerging adulthood were compared on adult outcomes (age ~36) before and after controlling for co-occurring use of other substances and several pre-existing confounding factors in early adolescence. The potential moderating effect of race was also examined. Results Although there were initially group differences across all domains, once pre-existing confounds and co-occurring other substance use were included in the model, groups only differed in terms of partner and friend marijuana use. Chronic marijuana users reported the highest proportions of both. Frequent and persistent marijuana use was associated with lower socioeconomic status (SES) for Black men only. Conclusions After statistically accounting for confounding variables, chronic marijuana users were not at a heightened risk for maladjustment in adulthood except for lower SES among Black men. Chronic users were more likely to have friends and partners who also used marijuana. Future studies should take into account pre-existing differences when examining outcomes of marijuana use. PMID:26365837

Parental History of Type 2 Diabetes in Patients with Nonaffective Psychosis

PubMed Central

Fernandez-Egea, Emilio; Miller, Brian; Bernardo, Miguel; Donner, Thomas; Kirkpatrick, Brian

2009-01-01

Introduction We attempted to replicate two previous studies which found an increased risk of diabetes in the relatives of schizophrenia probands. Methods N=34 patients with newly-diagnosed nonaffective psychosis and N=52 non-psychiatric controls were interviewed for parental history of Type 2 diabetes. Results In a logistic regression model that included multiple potential confounders, psychosis was a significant predictor of Type 2 diabetes in either parent (p<0.04). Discussion We found an increased prevalence of Type 2 diabetes in the parents of nonaffective psychosis subjects. This association may be due to shared environmental or genetic risk factors, or both. PMID:18031995

Confounding by dietary patterns of the inverse association between alcohol consumption and type 2 diabetes risk.

PubMed

Imamura, Fumiaki; Lichtenstein, Alice H; Dallal, Gerard E; Meigs, James B; Jacques, Paul F

2009-07-01

The ability to interpret epidemiologic observations is limited because of potential residual confounding by correlated dietary components. Dietary pattern analyses by factor analysis or partial least squares may overcome the limitation. To examine confounding by dietary pattern as well as standard risk factors and selected nutrients, the authors modeled the longitudinal association between alcohol consumption and 7-year risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in 2,879 healthy adults enrolled in the Framingham Offspring Study (1991-2001) by Cox proportional hazard models. After adjustment for standard risk factors, consumers of > or =9.0 drinks/week had a significantly lower risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus compared with abstainers (hazard ratio = 0.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.27, 0.81). Adjustment for selected nutrients had little effect on the hazard ratio, whereas adjustment for dietary pattern variables by factor analysis significantly shifted the hazard ratio away from null (hazard ratio = 0.33, 95% CI: 0.17, 0.64) by 40.0% (95% CI: 16.8, 57.0; P = 0.002). Dietary pattern variables by partial least squares showed similar results. Therefore, the observed inverse association, consistent with past studies, was confounded by dietary patterns, and this confounding was not captured by individual nutrient adjustment. The data suggest that alcohol intake, not dietary patterns associated with alcohol intake, is responsible for the observed inverse association with type 2 diabetes mellitus risk.

Evaluation in medical education: A topical review of target parameters, data collection tools and confounding factors.

PubMed

Schiekirka, Sarah; Feufel, Markus A; Herrmann-Lingen, Christoph; Raupach, Tobias

2015-01-01

Evaluation is an integral part of education in German medical schools. According to the quality standards set by the German Society for Evaluation, evaluation tools must provide an accurate and fair appraisal of teaching quality. Thus, data collection tools must be highly reliable and valid. This review summarises the current literature on evaluation of medical education with regard to the possible dimensions of teaching quality, the psychometric properties of survey instruments and potential confounding factors. We searched Pubmed, PsycINFO and PSYNDEX for literature on evaluation in medical education and included studies published up until June 30, 2011 as well as articles identified in the "grey literature". RESULTS are presented as a narrative review. We identified four dimensions of teaching quality: structure, process, teacher characteristics, and outcome. Student ratings are predominantly used to address the first three dimensions, and a number of reliable tools are available for this purpose. However, potential confounders of student ratings pose a threat to the validity of these instruments. Outcome is usually operationalised in terms of student performance on examinations, but methodological problems may limit the usability of these data for evaluation purposes. In addition, not all examinations at German medical schools meet current quality standards. The choice of tools for evaluating medical education should be guided by the dimension that is targeted by the evaluation. Likewise, evaluation results can only be interpreted within the context of the construct addressed by the data collection tool that was used as well as its specific confounding factors.

Association Between Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Carpal Tunnel Syndrome in Pooled Occupational Cohorts.

PubMed

Hegmann, Kurt T; Thiese, Matthew Steven; Kapellusch, Jay; Merryweather, Andrew S; Bao, Stephen; Silverstein, Barbara; Wood, Eric M; Kendall, Richard; Wertsch, Jacqueline; Foster, James; Garg, Arun; Drury, David L

2016-01-01

The aim of the study was to ascertain if cardiovascular (CVD) risk factors are carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) risk factors. Analysis of pooled baseline data from two large prospective cohort studies (n = 1824) assessed the relationships between a modified Framingham Heart Study CVD risk score both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study prevalence. Quantified job exposures, personal and psychosocial confounders were statistically controlled. Odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for individual risk scores. There was a strong relationship between CVD risk score and both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study after adjustment for confounders, with odds ratios as high as 4.16 and 7.35, respectively. Dose responses were also observed. In this workplace population, there is a strong association between CVD risk scores and both CTS and abnormal nerve conduction study that persisted after controlling for confounders. These data suggest a potentially modifiable disease mechanism.

If it is published in the peer-reviewed literature, it must be true?

PubMed

Wagner, Louis K

2014-10-01

Epidemiological research correlating cancer rates in a population of patients with radiation doses from medical X-rays is fraught with confounding factors that obfuscate the likelihood that any positive relationship is causal. This is a review of four studies involving some of those confounding factors. Comparisons of findings with other studies not encumbered by similar confounding factors can enhance assertions of causation between medical X-rays and cancer rates. Even so, such assertions rest significantly on opinions of researchers regarding the degree of consistency between findings among various studies. The question as to what degree any findings truly represent cause and effect will likely still meet with controversy. The importance of these findings to medicine should therefore not lie in any controversy regarding causation, but in what the findings potentially mean with regard to benefit and risk for patients and the professional practice of medicine.

Are attractive men's faces masculine or feminine? The importance of controlling confounds in face stimuli.

PubMed

DeBruine, Lisa M; Jones, Benedict C; Smith, Finlay G; Little, Anthony C

2010-06-01

Women's preferences for male masculinity are highly variable. Although many researchers explain this variability as reflecting systematic individual differences in how women resolve the tradeoff between the costs and benefits of choosing a masculine partner, others suggest that methodological differences between studies are responsible. A recent study found general femininity preferences for judgments of faces that were manipulated in sexual dimorphism of shape but general masculinity preferences for judgments of faces that were based on perceived masculinity. Using the original stimuli, we replicated these previous results but found equivalent general femininity preferences for both types of faces when nonface confounds in the stimuli (e.g. hairstyle) were eliminated through masking. We conclude that care must be taken to control potential confounds in stimuli and that the influence of nonface cues on preferences for facial masculinity deserves further study.

Quantifying the causal effects of 20mph zones on road casualties in London via doubly robust estimation.

PubMed

Li, Haojie; Graham, Daniel J

2016-08-01

This paper estimates the causal effect of 20mph zones on road casualties in London. Potential confounders in the key relationship of interest are included within outcome regression and propensity score models, and the models are then combined to form a doubly robust estimator. A total of 234 treated zones and 2844 potential control zones are included in the data sample. The propensity score model is used to select a viable control group which has common support in the covariate distributions. We compare the doubly robust estimates with those obtained using three other methods: inverse probability weighting, regression adjustment, and propensity score matching. The results indicate that 20mph zones have had a significant causal impact on road casualty reduction in both absolute and proportional terms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Voluntary psychiatric emergencies in Los Angeles County after funding of California's Mental Health Services Act.

PubMed

Bruckner, Tim A; Yonsu, Kim; Chakravarthy, Bharath; Brown, Timothy Tyler

2012-08-01

Since 2006, California's Mental Health Services Act (MHSA) has distributed an estimated $6 billion in new tax revenues to county mental health systems. Although evaluations of MHSA's effectiveness find favorable outcomes among high-risk individuals that represent 6% of all mental health clients, scant research has tested whether MHSA funds improve the overall functioning of the public mental health system. The authors analyzed whether the incidence of voluntary emergency psychiatric visits, a key gauge of the functioning of the mental health system, fell below expected levels after the disbursement of MHSA funds. Los Angeles County, the most populous county in California, was examined. The authors obtained the monthly incidence of emergency psychiatric visits among Medi-Cal patients for 96 months spanning July 2000 to June 2008 (5.9 million overall admissions, of which 47,328 were emergency visits). Time-series methods controlled for temporal patterns in emergency visits as well as other potential confounders (unemployment, for example) that could induce spurious associations. The incidence of voluntary psychiatric emergencies fell below expected levels eight to 12 months after the disbursement of MHSA funds. After one year, emergency visits returned to their long-term mean level. Results remained robust after analyses controlled for outliers and potential confounders. In the short term, an infusion of public funds devoted to mental health services appeared to reduce psychiatric emergency visits. Explanations for the transient nature of the decline in emergency visits in Los Angeles County are discussed.

Associations of Cannabis and Cigarette Use with Depression and Anxiety at Age 18: Findings from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children

PubMed Central

Gage, Suzanne H.; Hickman, Matthew; Heron, Jon; Munafò, Marcus R.; Lewis, Glyn; Macleod, John; Zammit, Stanley

2015-01-01

Introduction Substance use is associated with common mental health disorders, but the causal effect of specific substances is uncertain. We investigate whether adolescent cannabis and cigarette use is associated with incident depression and anxiety, while attempting to account for confounding and reverse causation. Methods We used data from ALSPAC, a UK birth cohort study, to investigate associations between cannabis or cigarettes (measured at age 16) and depression or anxiety (measured at age 18), before and after adjustment for pre-birth, childhood and adolescent confounders. Our imputed sample size was 4561 participants. Results Both cannabis (unadjusted OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.26, 1.80) and cigarette use (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.16, 1.61) increased the odds of developing depression. Adjustment for pre-birth and childhood confounders partly attenuated these relationships though strong evidence of association persisted for cannabis use. There was weak evidence of association for cannabis (fully adjusted OR 1.30, 95% CI 0.98, 1.72) and insufficient evidence for association for cigarette use (fully adjusted OR = 0.97, 95% CI 0.75, 1.24) after mutually adjusting for each other, or for alcohol or other substance use. Neither cannabis nor cigarette use were associated with anxiety after adjustment for pre-birth and childhood confounders. Conclusions Whilst evidence of association between cannabis use and depression persisted after adjusting for pre-term and childhood confounders, our results highlight the difficulties in trying to estimate and interpret independent effects of cannabis and tobacco on psychopathology. Complementary methods are required to robustly examine effects of cannabis and tobacco on psychopathology. PMID:25875443

Cryptic confounding compounds: A brief consideration of the influences of anthropogenic contaminants on courtship and mating behavior

PubMed Central

Blocker, Tomica D.; Ophir, Alexander G.

2012-01-01

Contaminants, like pesticides, polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), dioxins and metals, are persistent and ubiquitous and are known to threaten the environment. Traditionally, scientists have considered the direct physiological risks that these contaminants pose. However, scientists have just begun to integrate ethology and toxicology to investigate the effects that contaminants have on behavior. This review considers the potential for contaminant effects on mating behavior. Here we assess the growing body of research concerning disruptions in sexual differentiation, courtship, sexual receptivity, arousal, and mating. We discuss the implications of these disruptions on conservation efforts and highlight the importance of recognizing the potential for environmental stressors to affect behavioral experimentation. More specifically, we consider the negative implications for anthropogenic contaminants to affect the immediate behavior of animals, and their potential to have cascading and/or long-term effects on the behavioral ecology and evolution of populations. Overall, we aim to raise awareness of the confounding influence that contaminants can have, and promote caution when interpreting results where the potential for cryptic affects are possible. PMID:24244068

Packet Randomized Experiments for Eliminating Classes of Confounders

PubMed Central

Pavela, Greg; Wiener, Howard; Fontaine, Kevin R.; Fields, David A.; Voss, Jameson D.; Allison, David B.

2014-01-01

Background Although randomization is considered essential for causal inference, it is often not possible to randomize in nutrition and obesity research. To address this, we develop a framework for an experimental design—packet randomized experiments (PREs), which improves causal inferences when randomization on a single treatment variable is not possible. This situation arises when subjects are randomly assigned to a condition (such as a new roommate) which varies in one characteristic of interest (such as weight), but also varies across many others. There has been no general discussion of this experimental design, including its strengths, limitations, and statistical properties. As such, researchers are left to develop and apply PREs on an ad hoc basis, limiting its potential to improve causal inferences among nutrition and obesity researchers. Methods We introduce PREs as an intermediary design between randomized controlled trials and observational studies. We review previous research that used the PRE design and describe its application in obesity-related research, including random roommate assignments, heterochronic parabiosis, and the quasi-random assignment of subjects to geographic areas. We then provide a statistical framework to control for potential packet-level confounders not accounted for by randomization. Results PREs have successfully been used to improve causal estimates of the effect of roommates, altitude, and breastfeeding on weight outcomes. When certain assumptions are met, PREs can asymptotically control for packet-level characteristics. This has the potential to statistically estimate the effect of a single treatment even when randomization to a single treatment did not occur. Conclusions Applying PREs to obesity-related research will improve decisions about clinical, public health, and policy actions insofar as it offers researchers new insight into cause and effect relationships among variables. PMID:25444088

Restless legs syndrome status as a predictor for lower physical function

PubMed Central

Zhang, Chunbai; Li, Yanping; Malhotra, Atul; Ning, Yi

2014-01-01

Objective: To examine the potential long-term impact of restless legs syndrome (RLS) and other common sleep complaints on subsequent physical function (PF), we conducted a longitudinal analysis of 12,556 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study. Methods: We used a set of questions recommended by the International RLS Study Group to assess RLS in 2002. We asked questions regarding other sleep complaints—insomnia, sleep fragmentation, and excessive daytime sleepiness—in 2004. We used the Physical Function (PF-10) survey of the Short Form–36 Health Survey to characterize PF in 1996 and 2008. We examined the 2008 PF-10 scores across categories of baseline RLS (2002), adjusted for age, 1996 PF-10 score, and other potential confounders. Results: The participants with RLS at baseline had significantly lower PF-10 score 6 years later than those without RLS (mean difference = −2.32, p = 0.01), after adjusting for potential confounders. The magnitude of difference in PF-10 score for RLS symptoms ≥15 times/month vs no RLS was more than that of a 5-year increase of age or moderate amount of smoking. Having daily daytime sleepiness and sleep duration ≥9 hours/day were associated with lower mean PF value than not having these symptoms (p < 0.05 for both). Conclusions: RLS and other sleep complaints are associated with lower PF. Our findings need to be replicated by more longitudinal studies including women and populations of other social and cultural backgrounds. It is important to understand whether RLS is an independent risk factor or a marker for other unknown risk factors for disability. PMID:24598708

The development of a modified spectral ripple test.

PubMed

Aronoff, Justin M; Landsberger, David M

2013-08-01

Poor spectral resolution can be a limiting factor for hearing impaired listeners, particularly for complex listening tasks such as speech understanding in noise. Spectral ripple tests are commonly used to measure spectral resolution, but these tests contain a number of potential confounds that can make interpretation of the results difficult. To measure spectral resolution while avoiding those confounds, a modified spectral ripple test with dynamically changing ripples was created, referred to as the spectral-temporally modulated ripple test (SMRT). This paper describes the SMRT and provides evidence that it is sensitive to changes in spectral resolution.

Gang membership and substance use: guilt as a gendered causal pathway

PubMed Central

Coffman, Donna L.; Melde, Chris; Esbensen, Finn-Aage

2014-01-01

Objectives We examine whether anticipated guilt for substance use is a gendered mechanism underlying the noted enhancement effect of gang membership on illegal drug use. We also demonstrate a method for making stronger causal inferences when assessing mediation in the presence of moderation and time-varying confounding. Methods We estimate a series of inverse propensity weighted models to obtain unbiased estimates of mediation in the presence of confounding of the exposure (i.e., gang membership) and mediator (i.e., anticipated guilt) using three waves of data from a multi-site panel study of a law-related education program for youth (N=1,113). Results The onset of gang membership significantly decreased anticipated substance use guilt among both male and female respondents. This reduction was significantly associated with increased frequency of substance use only for female respondents, however, suggesting that gender moderates the mechanism through which gang membership influences substance use. Conclusions Criminologists are often concerned with identifying causal pathways for antisocial and/or delinquent behavior, but confounders of the exposure, mediator, and outcome often interfere with efforts to assess mediation. Many new approaches have been proposed for strengthening causal inference for mediation effects. After controlling for confounding using inverse propensity weighting, our results suggest that interventions aimed at reducing substance use by current and former female gang members should focus on the normative aspects of these behaviors. PMID:26190954

Associations of Perfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) with Lower Birth Weight: An Evaluation of Potential Confounding by Glomerular Filtration Rate Using a Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Model (PBPK)

PubMed Central

Loccisano, Anne E.; Morken, Nils-Halvdan; Yoon, Miyoung; Wu, Huali; McDougall, Robin; Maisonet, Mildred; Marcus, Michele; Kishi, Reiko; Miyashita, Chihiro; Chen, Mei-Huei; Hsieh, Wu-Shiun; Andersen, Melvin E.; Clewell, Harvey J.; Longnecker, Matthew P.

2015-01-01

Background Prenatal exposure to perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) has been associated with lower birth weight in epidemiologic studies. This association could be attributable to glomerular filtration rate (GFR), which is related to PFAS concentration and birth weight. Objectives We used a physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model of pregnancy to assess how much of the PFAS–birth weight association observed in epidemiologic studies might be attributable to GFR. Methods We modified a PBPK model to reflect the association of GFR with birth weight (estimated from three studies of GFR and birth weight) and used it to simulate PFAS concentrations in maternal and cord plasma. The model was run 250,000 times, with variation in parameters, to simulate a population. Simulated data were analyzed to evaluate the association between PFAS levels and birth weight due to GFR. We compared simulated estimates with those from a meta-analysis of epidemiologic data. Results The reduction in birth weight for each 1-ng/mL increase in simulated cord plasma for perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was 2.72 g (95% CI: –3.40, –2.04), and for perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) was 7.13 g (95% CI: –8.46, –5.80); results based on maternal plasma at term were similar. Results were sensitive to variations in PFAS level distributions and the strength of the GFR–birth weight association. In comparison, our meta-analysis of epidemiologic studies suggested that each 1-ng/mL increase in prenatal PFOS and PFOA levels was associated with 5.00 g (95% CI: –21.66, –7.78) and 14.72 g (95% CI: –8.92, –1.09) reductions in birth weight, respectively. Conclusion Results of our simulations suggest that a substantial proportion of the association between prenatal PFAS and birth weight may be attributable to confounding by GFR and that confounding by GFR may be more important in studies with sample collection later in pregnancy. Citation Verner MA, Loccisano AE, Morken NH, Yoon M, Wu H, McDougall R, Maisonet M, Marcus M, Kishi R, Miyashita C, Chen MH, Hsieh WS, Andersen ME, Clewell HJ III, Longnecker MP. 2015. Associations of perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) with lower birth weight: an evaluation of potential confounding by glomerular filtration rate using a physiologically based pharmacokinetic model (PBPK). Environ Health Perspect 123:1317–1324; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408837 PMID:26008903

Vehicle year and the risk of car crash injury

PubMed Central

Blows, S; Ivers, R; Woodward, M; Connor, J; Ameratunga, S; Norton, R

2003-01-01

Objective: To quantify the association between vehicle age and risk of car crash injury. Design and setting: Data from a population based case-control study conducted in the Auckland region in 1998/99 was used to examine the adjusted risk of car crash injury or death due to vehicle age, after controlling for a range of known confounders. Cases were all cars involved in crashes in which at least one occupant was hospitalized or killed anywhere in the Auckland region, and controls were randomly selected cars on Auckland roads. The drivers of the 571 case vehicles and 588 control vehicles completed a structured interview. Main outcome measure: Hospitalisation or death of a vehicle occupant due to car crash injury. Results: Vehicles constructed before 1984 had significantly greater chance of being involved in an injury crash than those constructed after 1994 (odds ratio 2.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20 to 6.91), after adjustment for potential confounders. There was also a trend for increasing crash risk with each one year increase in vehicle age after adjustment for potential confounders (odds ratio 1.05, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.11; p = 0.09). Conclusion: This study quantifies the increased risk of car crash injury associated with older vehicle year and confirms this as an important public health issue. PMID:14693899

Vehicle year and the risk of car crash injury.

PubMed

Blows, S; Ivers, R Q; Woodward, M; Connor, J; Ameratunga, S; Norton, R

2003-12-01

To quantify the association between vehicle age and risk of car crash injury. Data from a population based case-control study conducted in the Auckland region in 1998/99 was used to examine the adjusted risk of car crash injury or death due to vehicle age, after controlling for a range of known confounders. Cases were all cars involved in crashes in which at least one occupant was hospitalized or killed anywhere in the Auckland region, and controls were randomly selected cars on Auckland roads. The drivers of the 571 case vehicles and 588 control vehicles completed a structured interview. Hospitalisation or death of a vehicle occupant due to car crash injury. Vehicles constructed before 1984 had significantly greater chance of being involved in an injury crash than those constructed after 1994 (odds ratio 2.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20 to 6.91), after adjustment for potential confounders. There was also a trend for increasing crash risk with each one year increase in vehicle age after adjustment for potential confounders (odds ratio 1.05, 95% CI 0.99 to 1.11; p = 0.09). This study quantifies the increased risk of car crash injury associated with older vehicle year and confirms this as an important public health issue.

A propensity score approach to correction for bias due to population stratification using genetic and non-genetic factors.

PubMed

Zhao, Huaqing; Rebbeck, Timothy R; Mitra, Nandita

2009-12-01

Confounding due to population stratification (PS) arises when differences in both allele and disease frequencies exist in a population of mixed racial/ethnic subpopulations. Genomic control, structured association, principal components analysis (PCA), and multidimensional scaling (MDS) approaches have been proposed to address this bias using genetic markers. However, confounding due to PS can also be due to non-genetic factors. Propensity scores are widely used to address confounding in observational studies but have not been adapted to deal with PS in genetic association studies. We propose a genomic propensity score (GPS) approach to correct for bias due to PS that considers both genetic and non-genetic factors. We compare the GPS method with PCA and MDS using simulation studies. Our results show that GPS can adequately adjust and consistently correct for bias due to PS. Under no/mild, moderate, and severe PS, GPS yielded estimated with bias close to 0 (mean=-0.0044, standard error=0.0087). Under moderate or severe PS, the GPS method consistently outperforms the PCA method in terms of bias, coverage probability (CP), and type I error. Under moderate PS, the GPS method consistently outperforms the MDS method in terms of CP. PCA maintains relatively high power compared to both MDS and GPS methods under the simulated situations. GPS and MDS are comparable in terms of statistical properties such as bias, type I error, and power. The GPS method provides a novel and robust tool for obtaining less-biased estimates of genetic associations that can consider both genetic and non-genetic factors. 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Potential sources of bias in the use of Escherichia coli to measure waterborne diarrhoea risk in low-income settings.

PubMed

Ercumen, Ayse; Arnold, Benjamin F; Naser, Abu Mohd; Unicomb, Leanne; Colford, John M; Luby, Stephen P

2017-01-01

Escherichia coli is the standard water quality indicator for diarrhoea risk. Yet, the association between E. coli and diarrhoea is inconsistent across studies without a systematic assessment of methodological differences behind this variation. Most studies measure water quality cross-sectionally with diarrhoea, risking exposure misclassification and reverse causation. Studies use different recall windows for self-reported diarrhoea; longer periods increase potential outcome misclassification through misrecall. Control of confounding is inconsistent across studies. Additionally, diarrhoea measured in unblinded intervention trials can present courtesy bias. We utilised measurements from a randomised trial of water interventions in Bangladesh to assess how these factors affect the E. coli-diarrhoea association. We compared cross-sectional versus prospective measurements of water quality and diarrhoea, 2-versus 7-day symptom recall periods, estimates with and without controlling for confounding and using measurements from control versus intervention arms of the trial. In the control arm, 2-day diarrhoea prevalence, measured prospectively 1 month after water quality, significantly increased with log 10 E. coli (PR = 1.50, 1.02-2.20). This association weakened when we used 7-day recall (PR = 1.18, 0.88-1.57), cross-sectional measurements of E. coli and diarrhoea (PR = 1.11, 0.79-1.56) or did not control for confounding (PR = 1.20, 0.88-1.62). Including data from intervention arms led to less interpretable associations, potentially due to courtesy bias, effect modification and/or reverse causation. By systematically addressing potential sources of bias, our analysis demonstrates a clear relationship between E. coli in drinking water and diarrhoea, suggesting that the continued use of E. coli as an indicator of waterborne diarrhoea risk is justified. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Differential Covariance: A New Class of Methods to Estimate Sparse Connectivity from Neural Recordings

PubMed Central

Lin, Tiger W.; Das, Anup; Krishnan, Giri P.; Bazhenov, Maxim; Sejnowski, Terrence J.

2017-01-01

With our ability to record more neurons simultaneously, making sense of these data is a challenge. Functional connectivity is one popular way to study the relationship of multiple neural signals. Correlation-based methods are a set of currently well-used techniques for functional connectivity estimation. However, due to explaining away and unobserved common inputs (Stevenson, Rebesco, Miller, & Körding, 2008), they produce spurious connections. The general linear model (GLM), which models spike trains as Poisson processes (Okatan, Wilson, & Brown, 2005; Truccolo, Eden, Fellows, Donoghue, & Brown, 2005; Pillow et al., 2008), avoids these confounds. We develop here a new class of methods by using differential signals based on simulated intracellular voltage recordings. It is equivalent to a regularized AR(2) model. We also expand the method to simulated local field potential recordings and calcium imaging. In all of our simulated data, the differential covariance-based methods achieved performance better than or similar to the GLM method and required fewer data samples. This new class of methods provides alternative ways to analyze neural signals. PMID:28777719

Differential Covariance: A New Class of Methods to Estimate Sparse Connectivity from Neural Recordings.

PubMed

Lin, Tiger W; Das, Anup; Krishnan, Giri P; Bazhenov, Maxim; Sejnowski, Terrence J

2017-10-01

With our ability to record more neurons simultaneously, making sense of these data is a challenge. Functional connectivity is one popular way to study the relationship of multiple neural signals. Correlation-based methods are a set of currently well-used techniques for functional connectivity estimation. However, due to explaining away and unobserved common inputs (Stevenson, Rebesco, Miller, & Körding, 2008 ), they produce spurious connections. The general linear model (GLM), which models spike trains as Poisson processes (Okatan, Wilson, & Brown, 2005 ; Truccolo, Eden, Fellows, Donoghue, & Brown, 2005 ; Pillow et al., 2008 ), avoids these confounds. We develop here a new class of methods by using differential signals based on simulated intracellular voltage recordings. It is equivalent to a regularized AR(2) model. We also expand the method to simulated local field potential recordings and calcium imaging. In all of our simulated data, the differential covariance-based methods achieved performance better than or similar to the GLM method and required fewer data samples. This new class of methods provides alternative ways to analyze neural signals.

Segmentation of Vasculature from Fluorescently Labeled Endothelial Cells in Multi-Photon Microscopy Images.

PubMed

Bates, Russell; Irving, Benjamin; Markelc, Bostjan; Kaeppler, Jakob; Brown, Graham; Muschel, Ruth J; Brady, Sir Michael; Grau, Vicente; Schnabel, Julia A

2017-08-09

Vasculature is known to be of key biological significance, especially in the study of tumors. As such, considerable effort has been focused on the automated segmentation of vasculature in medical and pre-clinical images. The majority of vascular segmentation methods focus on bloodpool labeling methods, however, particularly in the study of tumors it is of particular interest to be able to visualize both perfused and non-perfused vasculature. Imaging vasculature by highlighting the endothelium provides a way to separate the morphology of vasculature from the potentially confounding factor of perfusion. Here we present a method for the segmentation of tumor vasculature in 3D fluorescence microscopy images using signals from the endothelial and surrounding cells. We show that our method can provide complete and semantically meaningful segmentations of complex vasculature using a supervoxel-Markov Random Field approach. We show that in terms of extracting meaningful segmentations of the vasculature, our method out-performs both a state-ofthe- art method, specific to these data, as well as more classical vasculature segmentation methods.

Assessing the independent contribution of maternal educational expectations to children's educational attainment in early adulthood: a propensity score matching analysis.

PubMed

Pingault, Jean Baptiste; Côté, Sylvana M; Petitclerc, Amélie; Vitaro, Frank; Tremblay, Richard E

2015-01-01

Parental educational expectations have been associated with children's educational attainment in a number of long-term longitudinal studies, but whether this relationship is causal has long been debated. The aims of this prospective study were twofold: 1) test whether low maternal educational expectations contributed to failure to graduate from high school; and 2) compare the results obtained using different strategies for accounting for confounding variables (i.e. multivariate regression and propensity score matching). The study sample included 1,279 participants from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Kindergarten Children. Maternal educational expectations were assessed when the participants were aged 12 years. High school graduation—measuring educational attainment—was determined through the Quebec Ministry of Education when the participants were aged 22-23 years. Findings show that when using the most common statistical approach (i.e. multivariate regressions to adjust for a restricted set of potential confounders) the contribution of low maternal educational expectations to failure to graduate from high school was statistically significant. However, when using propensity score matching, the contribution of maternal expectations was reduced and remained statistically significant only for males. The results of this study are consistent with the possibility that the contribution of parental expectations to educational attainment is overestimated in the available literature. This may be explained by the use of a restricted range of potential confounding variables as well as the dearth of studies using appropriate statistical techniques and study designs in order to minimize confounding. Each of these techniques and designs, including propensity score matching, has its strengths and limitations: A more comprehensive understanding of the causal role of parental expectations will stem from a convergence of findings from studies using different techniques and designs.

Control selection and confounding factors: A lesson from a Japanese case-control study to examine acellular pertussis vaccine effectiveness.

PubMed

Ohfuji, Satoko; Okada, Kenji; Nakano, Takashi; Ito, Hiroaki; Hara, Megumi; Kuroki, Haruo; Hirota, Yoshio

2017-08-24

When using a case-control study design to examine vaccine effectiveness, both the selection of control subjects and the consideration of potential confounders must be the important issues to ensure accurate results. In this report, we described our experience from a case-control study conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of acellular pertussis vaccine combined with diphtheria-tetanus toxoids (DTaP vaccine). Newly diagnosed pertussis cases and age- and sex-matched friend-controls were enrolled, and the history of DTaP vaccination was compared between groups. Logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of vaccination for development of pertussis. After adjustment for potential confounders, four doses of DTaP vaccination showed a lower OR for pediatrician-diagnosed pertussis (OR=0.11, 95% CI, 0.01-0.99). In addition, the decreasing OR of four doses vaccination was more pronounced for laboratory-confirmed pertussis (OR=0.07, 95%CI, 0.01-0.82). Besides, positive association with pertussis was observed in subjects with a history of steroid treatment (OR=5.67) and those with a recent contact with a lasting cough (OR=4.12). When using a case-control study to evaluate the effectiveness of vaccines, particularly those for uncommon infectious diseases such as pertussis, the use of friend-controls may be optimal due to the fact that they shared a similar experience for exposure to the pathogen as the cases. In addition, to assess vaccine effectiveness as accurately as possible, the effects of confounding should be adequately controlled with a matching or analysis technique. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A case study of nurse practitioner care compared to general practitioner care for children with respiratory tract infections.

PubMed

van Vugt, Saskia F; van de Pol, Alma C; Cleveringa, Frits G W; Stellato, Rebecca K; Kappers, Marieke P; de Wit, Niek J; Damoiseaux, Roger A M J

2018-05-13

To compare quality of care provided by nurse practitioners with care provided by general practitioners for children with respiratory tract infections in the Netherlands. Nurse practitioners increasingly manage acute conditions in general practice, with opportunities for more protocolled care. Studies on quality of nurse practitioners' care for children with respiratory tract infections are limited to the US health care system and do not take into account baseline differences in illness severity. Retrospective observational cohort study. Data were extracted from electronic healthcare records of children 0-6 years presenting with respiratory tract infection between January-December 2013. Primary outcomes were antibiotic prescriptions and early return visits. Generalized estimating equations were used to correct for potential confounders. A total of 899 respiratory tract infection consultations were assessed (168 seen by nurse practitioner; 731 by general practitioners). Baseline characteristics differed between these groups. Overall antibiotic prescription and early return visit rates were 21% and 24%, respectively. Adjusted odds ratio for antibiotic prescription after nurse practitioner vs. general practitioner delivered care was 1.40 (95% confidence interval 0.89-2.22) and for early return visits 1.53 (95% confidence interval 1.01-2.31). Important confounder for antibiotic prescription was illness severity. Presence of wheezing was a confounder for return visits. Complication and referral rates did not differ. Antibiotic prescription, complication and referral rates for paediatric respiratory tract infection consultations did not differ significantly between nurse practitioner and general practitioner consultations, after correction for potential confounders. General practitioners, however, see more severely ill children and have a lower return visit rate. A randomised controlled study is needed to determine whether nurse practitioner care quality is truly non-inferior. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The effects of socioeconomic status and indices of physical environment on reduced birth weight and preterm births in Eastern Massachusetts

PubMed Central

Zeka, Ariana; Melly, Steve J; Schwartz, Joel

2008-01-01

Background Air pollution and social characteristics have been shown to affect indicators of health. While use of spatial methods to estimate exposure to air pollution has increased the power to detect effects, questions have been raised about potential for confounding by social factors. Methods A study of singleton births in Eastern Massachusetts was conducted between 1996 and 2002 to examine the association between indicators of traffic, land use, individual and area-based socioeconomic measures (SEM), and birth outcomes (birth weight, small for gestational age and preterm births), in a two-level hierarchical model. Results We found effects of both individual (education, race, prenatal care index) and area-based (median household income) SEM with all birth outcomes. The associations for traffic and land use variables were mainly seen with birth weight, with an exception for an effect of cumulative traffic density on small for gestational age. Race/ethnicity of mother was an important predictor of birth outcomes and a strong confounder for both area-based SEM and indices of physical environment. The effects of traffic and land use differed by level of education and median household income. Conclusion Overall, the findings of the study suggested greater likelihood of reduced birth weight and preterm births among the more socially disadvantaged, and a greater risk of reduced birth weight associated with traffic exposures. Results revealed the importance of controlling simultaneously for SEM and environmental exposures as the way to better understand determinants of health. PMID:19032747

Association analysis using next-generation sequence data from publicly available control groups: the robust variance score statistic.

PubMed

Derkach, Andriy; Chiang, Theodore; Gong, Jiafen; Addis, Laura; Dobbins, Sara; Tomlinson, Ian; Houlston, Richard; Pal, Deb K; Strug, Lisa J

2014-08-01

Sufficiently powered case-control studies with next-generation sequence (NGS) data remain prohibitively expensive for many investigators. If feasible, a more efficient strategy would be to include publicly available sequenced controls. However, these studies can be confounded by differences in sequencing platform; alignment, single nucleotide polymorphism and variant calling algorithms; read depth; and selection thresholds. Assuming one can match cases and controls on the basis of ethnicity and other potential confounding factors, and one has access to the aligned reads in both groups, we investigate the effect of systematic differences in read depth and selection threshold when comparing allele frequencies between cases and controls. We propose a novel likelihood-based method, the robust variance score (RVS), that substitutes genotype calls by their expected values given observed sequence data. We show theoretically that the RVS eliminates read depth bias in the estimation of minor allele frequency. We also demonstrate that, using simulated and real NGS data, the RVS method controls Type I error and has comparable power to the 'gold standard' analysis with the true underlying genotypes for both common and rare variants. An RVS R script and instructions can be found at strug.research.sickkids.ca, and at https://github.com/strug-lab/RVS. lisa.strug@utoronto.ca Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Arylesterase Phenotype-Specific Positive Association Between Arylesterase Activity and Cholinesterase Specific Activity in Human Serum

PubMed Central

Aoki, Yutaka; Helzlsouer, Kathy J.; Strickland, Paul T.

2014-01-01

Context: Cholinesterase (ChE) specific activity is the ratio of ChE activity to ChE mass and, as a biomarker of exposure to cholinesterase inhibitors, has a potential advantage over simple ChE activity. Objective: To examine the association of several potential correlates (serum arylesterase/paraoxonase activity, serum albumin, sex, age, month of blood collection, and smoking) with plasma ChE specific activity. Methods: We analyzed data from 195 cancer-free controls from a nested case-control study, accounting for potential confounding. Results: Arylesterase activity had an independent, statistically significant positive association with ChE specific activity, and its magnitude was the greatest for the arylesterase phenotype corresponding to the QQ PON1192 genotype followed by phenotypes corresponding to QR and RR genotypes. Serum albumin was positively associated with ChE specific activity. Conclusions: Plasma arylesterase activity was positively associated with plasma ChE specific activity. This observation is consistent with protection conferred by a metabolic phenotype resulting in reduced internal dose. PMID:24473115

Associations between Responsible Beverage Service Laws and Binge Drinking and Alcohol-Impaired Driving

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Linde, Ann C.; Toomey, Traci L.; Wolfson, Julian; Lenk, Kathleen M.; Jones-Webb, Rhonda; Erickson, Darin J.

2016-01-01

We explored potential associations between the strength of state Responsible Beverage Service (RBS) laws and self-reported binge drinking and alcohol-impaired driving in the U.S. A multi-level logistic mixed-effects model was used, adjusting for potential confounders. Analyses were conducted on the overall BRFSS sample and drinkers only. Seven…

Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme Inhibitors and the Risk of Congenital Malformations.

PubMed

Bateman, Brian T; Patorno, Elisabetta; Desai, Rishi J; Seely, Ellen W; Mogun, Helen; Dejene, Sara Z; Fischer, Michael A; Friedman, Alexander M; Hernandez-Diaz, Sonia; Huybrechts, Krista F

2017-01-01

To examine the association between first-trimester angiotensin-converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitor exposure and the risk of overall major congenital, cardiac, and central nervous system malformations. We used a cohort of completed pregnancies linked to liveborn neonates derived from Medicaid claims from 2000 to 2010. We examined the risk of malformations associated with first-trimester exposure to an ACE inhibitor. Propensity score-based methods were used to control for potential confounders including maternal demographics, medical conditions, exposure to other medications, and measures of health care utilization. The cohort included 1,333,624 pregnancies, of which 4,107 (0.31%) were exposed to ACE inhibitors during the first trimester. The prevalence of overall malformations in the ACE inhibitor-exposed pregnancies was 5.9% compared with 3.3% in the unexposed (unadjusted relative risk, 1.82; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.61-2.06), of cardiac malformations was 3.4% compared with 1.2% (relative risk 2.95, 95% CI 2.50-3.47), and of central nervous system malformations was 0.27% compared with 0.18% (relative risk 1.46, 95% CI 0.81-2.64). After restricting the cohort to pregnancies complicated by chronic hypertension (both exposed and unexposed) and accounting for other confounding factors, there was no significant increase in the risk of any of the outcomes assessed. Relative risks associated with first-trimester ACE inhibitor exposure were 0.89 (95% CI 0.75-1.06) for overall malformations, 0.95 (95% CI 0.75-1.21) for cardiac malformations, and 0.54 (95% CI 0.26-1.11) for CNS malformations. After accounting for confounders, among women with hypertension, exposure to ACE inhibitors during the first trimester was not associated with an increased risk of major congenital malformations.

Alcohol use at time of injury and survival following traumatic brain injury: results from the National Trauma Data Bank.

PubMed

Chen, Chiung M; Yi, Hsiao-Ye; Yoon, Young-Hee; Dong, Chuanhui

2012-07-01

Premised on biological evidence from animal research, recent clinical studies have, for the most part, concluded that elevated blood alcohol concentration levels are independently associated with higher survival or decreased mortality in patients with moderate to severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). This study aims to provide some counterevidence to this claim and to further future investigations. Incident data were drawn from the largest U.S. trauma registry, the National Trauma Data Bank, for emergency department admission years 2002-2006. TBI was identified according to the National Trauma Data Bank's definition using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM), codes. To eliminate confounding, the exact matching method was used to match alcohol-positive with alcohol-negative incidents on sex, age, race/ethnicity, and facility. Logistic regression compared in-hospital mortality between 44,043 alcohol-positive and 59,817 matched alcohol-negative TBI incidents, with and without causes and intents of TBI and Injury Severity Score as covariates. A sensitivity analysis was performed within a subsample of isolated moderate to severe TBI incidents. Alcohol use at the time of injury was found to be significantly associated with an increased risk for TBI. Including varied causes and intents of TBI and Injury Severity Score as potential confounders in the regression model explained away the statistical significance of the seemingly protective effect of alcohol against TBI mortality for all TBIs and for isolated moderate to severe TBIs. The null finding shows that the purported reduction in TBI mortality attributed to positive blood alcohol likely is attributable to residual confounding. Accordingly, the risk of TBI associated with alcohol use should not be overlooked.

Treatment effect heterogeneity for univariate subgroups in clinical trials: Shrinkage, standardization, or else

PubMed Central

Varadhan, Ravi; Wang, Sue-Jane

2016-01-01

Treatment effect heterogeneity is a well-recognized phenomenon in randomized controlled clinical trials. In this paper, we discuss subgroup analyses with prespecified subgroups of clinical or biological importance. We explore various alternatives to the naive (the traditional univariate) subgroup analyses to address the issues of multiplicity and confounding. Specifically, we consider a model-based Bayesian shrinkage (Bayes-DS) and a nonparametric, empirical Bayes shrinkage approach (Emp-Bayes) to temper the optimism of traditional univariate subgroup analyses; a standardization approach (standardization) that accounts for correlation between baseline covariates; and a model-based maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approach. The Bayes-DS and Emp-Bayes methods model the variation in subgroup-specific treatment effect rather than testing the null hypothesis of no difference between subgroups. The standardization approach addresses the issue of confounding in subgroup analyses. The MLE approach is considered only for comparison in simulation studies as the “truth” since the data were generated from the same model. Using the characteristics of a hypothetical large outcome trial, we perform simulation studies and articulate the utilities and potential limitations of these estimators. Simulation results indicate that Bayes-DS and Emp-Bayes can protect against optimism present in the naïve approach. Due to its simplicity, the naïve approach should be the reference for reporting univariate subgroup-specific treatment effect estimates from exploratory subgroup analyses. Standardization, although it tends to have a larger variance, is suggested when it is important to address the confounding of univariate subgroup effects due to correlation between baseline covariates. The Bayes-DS approach is available as an R package (DSBayes). PMID:26485117

[Methodological aspects in the evaluation of turn-over and up/down sizing as indicators of work-related stress].

PubMed

Veronesi, G; Bertù, L; Mombelli, S; Cimmino, L; Caravati, G; Conti, M; Abate, T; Ferrario, M M

2011-01-01

We discuss the methodological aspects related to the evaluation of turn-over and up-down sizing as indicators of work-related stress, in complex organizations like a university hospital. To estimate the active workers population we developed an algorithm which integrated several administrative databases. The indicators were standardized to take into account some potential confounders (age, sex, work seniority) when considering different hospital structures and job mansions. Main advantages of our method include flexibility in the choice of the analysis detail (hospital units, job mansions, a combination of both) and the possibility to describe over-time trends to measure the success of preventive strategies.

Diabetes in Relation to Serum Levels of Polychlorinated Biphenyls and Chlorinated Pesticides in Adult Native Americans

PubMed Central

Codru, Neculai; Schymura, Maria J.; Negoita, Serban; Rej, Robert; Carpenter, David O.

2007-01-01

Background Recent research suggests that diabetes, a condition whose incidence is increasing, is associated with exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and chlorinated pesticides. Objectives We investigated the potential association between diabetes and serum levels of PCBs, dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), and mirex in a cross-sectional study of an adult Native-American (Mohawk) population. Methods Through a standardized questionnaire we collected demographic, medical, and lifestyle information from 352 adults, ≥30 years of age. We collected fasting serum samples that were analyzed for 101 PCB congeners, DDE, HCB, and mirex along with fasting glucose, triglycerides, and cholesterol. Participants who had fasting-glucose values > 125 mg/dL and/or who were taking antidiabetic medication were defined as persons with diabetes. We conducted logistic regression to assess the potential association between organochlorine serum levels and diabetes, while controlling for the potential confounding variables of age, body mass index (BMI), smoking, sex, and serum lipid levels. Organochlorine serum levels were categorized in tertiles, and the lowest tertile was used as the reference category. Results The prevalence of diabetes was 20.2%. The odds ratio (OR) of having diabetes for participants in the highest tertile of total PCB concentration compared with the lowest tertile was 3.9 (95% confidence interval, 1.5–10.6). The corresponding ORs for DDE and HCB were even higher. Elevated serum mirex was not associated with diabetes. After adjustment for other analytes, the OR for HCB remained significant, whereas ORs for PCBs and DDE remained elevated but not statistically significant. In contrast, after adjustment for other analytes, the OR for mirex became statistically significant and indicated an inverse association. Conclusions In this study of adult Native Americans, elevated serum PCBs, DDE, and HCB were positively associated with diabetes after controlling for potential confounders, whereas a negative association was observed for mirex. PMID:17938733

Risk of bias and confounding of observational studies of Zika virus infection: A scoping review of research protocols

PubMed Central

Haby, Michelle M.; Martínez-Vega, Ruth; Pinzón-Flores, Carlos E.; Smith, Emma; Pinart, Mariona; Broutet, Nathalie; Becerra-Posada, Francisco; Aldighieri, Sylvain; Van Kerkhove, Maria D.

2017-01-01

Introduction Given the severity and impact of the current Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreak in the Americas, numerous countries have rushed to develop research studies to assess ZIKV and its potential health consequences. In an effort to ensure that studies are comprehensive, both internally and externally valid, and with reliable results, the World Health Organization, the Pan American Health Organization, Institut Pasteur, the networks of Fiocruz, the Consortia for the Standardization of Influenza Seroepidemiology (CONSISE) and the International Severe Acute Respiratory and Emerging Infection Consortium (ISARIC) have generated six standardized clinical and epidemiological research protocols and questionnaires to address key public health questions on ZIKV. Methods We conducted a systematic search of ongoing study protocols related to ZIKV research. We analyzed the content of protocols of 32 cohort studies and 13 case control studies for systematic bias that could produce erroneous results. Additionally we aimed to characterize the risks of bias and confounding in observational studies related to ZIKV and to propose ways to minimize them, including the use of six newly standardized research protocols. Results Observational studies of ZIKV face an array of challenges, including measurement of exposure and outcomes (microcephaly and Guillain-Barré Syndrome). Potential confounders need to be measured where known and controlled for in the analysis. Selection bias due to non-random selection is a significant issue, particularly in the case-control design, and losses to follow-up is equally important for the cohort design. Conclusion Observational research seeking to answer key questions on the ZIKV should consider these restrictions and take precautions to minimize bias in an effort to provide reliable and valid results. Utilization of the standardized research protocols developed by the WHO, PAHO, Institut Pasteur, and CONSISE will harmonize the key methodological aspects of each study design to minimize bias at different stages of the study. Biases need to be considered by researchers implementing the standardized protocols as well as by users of observational epidemiological studies of ZIKV. PMID:28686621

Relative importance of climatic, geographic and socio-economic determinants of malaria in Malawi

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Malaria transmission is influenced by variations in meteorological conditions, which impact the biology of the parasite and its vector, but also socio-economic conditions, such as levels of urbanization, poverty and education, which impact human vulnerability and vector habitat. The many potential drivers of malaria, both extrinsic, such as climate, and intrinsic, such as population immunity are often difficult to disentangle. This presents a challenge for the modelling of malaria risk in space and time. Methods A statistical mixed model framework is proposed to model malaria risk at the district level in Malawi, using an age-stratified spatio-temporal dataset of malaria cases from July 2004 to June 2011. Several climatic, geographic and socio-economic factors thought to influence malaria incidence were tested in an exploratory model. In order to account for the unobserved confounding factors that influence malaria, which are not accounted for using measured covariates, a generalized linear mixed model was adopted, which included structured and unstructured spatial and temporal random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation was used for model fitting and prediction. Results Using a stepwise model selection procedure, several explanatory variables were identified to have significant associations with malaria including climatic, cartographic and socio-economic data. Once intervention variations, unobserved confounding factors and spatial correlation were considered in a Bayesian framework, a final model emerged with statistically significant predictor variables limited to average precipitation (quadratic relation) and average temperature during the three months previous to the month of interest. Conclusions When modelling malaria risk in Malawi it is important to account for spatial and temporal heterogeneity and correlation between districts. Once observed and unobserved confounding factors are allowed for, precipitation and temperature in the months prior to the malaria season of interest are found to significantly determine spatial and temporal variations of malaria incidence. Climate information was found to improve the estimation of malaria relative risk in 41% of the districts in Malawi, particularly at higher altitudes where transmission is irregular. This highlights the potential value of climate-driven seasonal malaria forecasts. PMID:24228784

Not only body weight perception but also body mass index is relevant to suicidal ideation and self-harming behavior in Japanese adolescents.

PubMed

Kinoshita, Kuni; Kinoshita, Yoshihiro; Shimodera, Shinji; Nishida, Atsushi; Inoue, Ken; Watanabe, Norio; Oshima, Norihito; Akechi, Tatsuo; Sasaki, Tsukasa; Inoue, Shimpei; Furukawa, Toshiaki A; Okazaki, Yuji

2012-04-01

Whether a low body mass index (BMI) is directly associated with a high risk of suicidal ideation or self-harming behavior in adolescents is still inconclusive. This study has, therefore, evaluated the relevance of BMI to suicidal ideation and self-harming behavior after controlling for body weight perception (BWP) and other potential confounding factors. BMI, BWP, suicidal ideation, and self-harming behavior were all assessed using a self-report questionnaire administered to 18,104 Japanese adolescents. Potential confounding factors were also evaluated. The data were then analyzed using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression. Low BMI was associated with suicidal ideation and deliberate self-harm when controlling for sex, age, drug use, emotional distress, and BWP. Low BMI may be an independent risk factor for suicidal ideation and deliberate self-harming behavior in Japanese adolescents.

Maternal obesity and childhood wheezing and asthma.

PubMed

Rusconi, Franca; Popovic, Maja

2017-03-01

Obesity represents one of the major public health problems worldwide, with an increased prevalence also among women of reproductive age. Maternal pre-pregnancy overweight and obesity are important risk factors for a number of maternal and foetal/neonatal complications. The objective of this review is to provide an overview of the most recent evidence regarding the associations between pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity and wheezing and asthma in childhood. Potential mechanisms, mediators and confounding factors involved in these associations are also discussed. Despite the relatively large body of studies examining these associations and taking into account main confounders and potential mediators, the causal relationship between maternal obesity and wheezing and asthma in childhood is still uncertain. This uncertainty is not trivial, as any prevention strategy aimed at reducing the burden of these conditions would necessarily imply better understanding of the factors that are in the causal chain. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Parent-based diagnosis of ADHD is as accurate as a teacher-based diagnosis of ADHD.

PubMed

Bied, Adam; Biederman, Joseph; Faraone, Stephen

2017-04-01

To review the literature evaluating the psychometric properties of parent and teacher informants relative to a gold-standard ADHD diagnosis in pediatric populations. We included studies that included both a parent and teacher informant, a gold-standard diagnosis, and diagnostic accuracy metrics. Potential confounds were evaluated. We also assessed the 'OR' and the 'AND' rules for combining informant reports. Eight articles met inclusion criteria. The diagnostic accuracy for predicting gold standard ADHD diagnoses did not differ between parents and teachers. Sample size, sample type, participant drop-out, participant age, participant gender, geographic area of the study, and date of study publication were assessed as potential confounds. Parent and teachers both yielded moderate to good diagnostic accuracy for ADHD diagnoses. Parent reports were statistically indistinguishable from those of teachers. The predictive features of the 'OR' and 'AND' rules are useful in evaluating approaches to better integrating information from these informants.

Methodological comparison of marginal structural model, time-varying Cox regression, and propensity score methods: the example of antidepressant use and the risk of hip fracture.

PubMed

Ali, M Sanni; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Belitser, Svetlana V; Souverein, Patrick C; Martín, Elisa; Gatto, Nicolle M; Huerta, Consuelo; Gardarsdottir, Helga; Roes, Kit C B; Hoes, Arno W; de Boer, Antonius; Klungel, Olaf H

2016-03-01

Observational studies including time-varying treatments are prone to confounding. We compared time-varying Cox regression analysis, propensity score (PS) methods, and marginal structural models (MSMs) in a study of antidepressant [selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs)] use and the risk of hip fracture. A cohort of patients with a first prescription for antidepressants (SSRI or tricyclic antidepressants) was extracted from the Dutch Mondriaan and Spanish Base de datos para la Investigación Farmacoepidemiológica en Atención Primaria (BIFAP) general practice databases for the period 2001-2009. The net (total) effect of SSRI versus no SSRI on the risk of hip fracture was estimated using time-varying Cox regression, stratification and covariate adjustment using the PS, and MSM. In MSM, censoring was accounted for by inverse probability of censoring weights. The crude hazard ratio (HR) of SSRI use versus no SSRI use on hip fracture was 1.75 (95%CI: 1.12, 2.72) in Mondriaan and 2.09 (1.89, 2.32) in BIFAP. After confounding adjustment using time-varying Cox regression, stratification, and covariate adjustment using the PS, HRs increased in Mondriaan [2.59 (1.63, 4.12), 2.64 (1.63, 4.25), and 2.82 (1.63, 4.25), respectively] and decreased in BIFAP [1.56 (1.40, 1.73), 1.54 (1.39, 1.71), and 1.61 (1.45, 1.78), respectively]. MSMs with stabilized weights yielded HR 2.15 (1.30, 3.55) in Mondriaan and 1.63 (1.28, 2.07) in BIFAP when accounting for censoring and 2.13 (1.32, 3.45) in Mondriaan and 1.66 (1.30, 2.12) in BIFAP without accounting for censoring. In this empirical study, differences between the different methods to control for time-dependent confounding were small. The observed differences in treatment effect estimates between the databases are likely attributable to different confounding information in the datasets, illustrating that adequate information on (time-varying) confounding is crucial to prevent bias. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Integrative assessment of multiple pesticides as risk factors for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma among men

PubMed Central

De Roos, A J; Zahm, S; Cantor, K; Weisenburger, D; Holmes, F; Burmeister, L; Blair, A

2003-01-01

Methods: During the 1980s, the National Cancer Institute conducted three case-control studies of NHL in the midwestern United States. These pooled data were used to examine pesticide exposures in farming as risk factors for NHL in men. The large sample size (n = 3417) allowed analysis of 47 pesticides simultaneously, controlling for potential confounding by other pesticides in the model, and adjusting the estimates based on a prespecified variance to make them more stable. Results: Reported use of several individual pesticides was associated with increased NHL incidence, including organophosphate insecticides coumaphos, diazinon, and fonofos, insecticides chlordane, dieldrin, and copper acetoarsenite, and herbicides atrazine, glyphosate, and sodium chlorate. A subanalysis of these "potentially carcinogenic" pesticides suggested a positive trend of risk with exposure to increasing numbers. Conclusion: Consideration of multiple exposures is important in accurately estimating specific effects and in evaluating realistic exposure scenarios. PMID:12937207

Statin adherence and risk of acute cardiovascular events among women: a cohort study accounting for time-dependent confounding affected by previous adherence.

PubMed

Lavikainen, Piia; Helin-Salmivaara, Arja; Eerola, Mervi; Fang, Gang; Hartikainen, Juha; Huupponen, Risto; Korhonen, Maarit Jaana

2016-06-03

Previous studies on the effect of statin adherence on cardiovascular events in the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease have adjusted for time-dependent confounding, but potentially introduced bias into their estimates as adherence and confounders were measured simultaneously. We aimed to evaluate the effect when accounting for time-dependent confounding affected by previous adherence as well as time sequence between factors. Retrospective cohort study. Finnish healthcare registers. Women aged 45-64 years initiating statin use for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in 2001-2004 (n=42 807). Acute cardiovascular event defined as a composite of acute coronary syndrome and acute ischaemic stroke was our primary outcome. Low-energy fractures were used as a negative control outcome to evaluate the healthy-adherer effect. During the 3-year follow-up, 474 women experienced the primary outcome event and 557 suffered a low-energy fracture. The causal HR estimated with marginal structural model for acute cardiovascular events for all the women who remained adherent (proportion of days covered ≥80%) to statin therapy during the previous adherence assessment year was 0.78 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.94) when compared with everybody remaining non-adherent (proportion of days covered <80%). The result was robust against alternative model specifications. Statin adherers had a potentially reduced risk of experiencing low-energy fractures compared with non-adherers (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.07). Our study, which took into account the time dependence of adherence and confounders, as well as temporal order between these factors, is support for the concept that adherence to statins in women in primary prevention decreases the risk of acute cardiovascular events by about one-fifth in comparison to non-adherence. However, part of the observed effect of statin adherence on acute cardiovascular events may be due to the healthy-adherer effect. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Childhood Medical and Behavioral Consequences of Maternal Cocaine Use1

PubMed Central

Singer, Lynn; Farkas, Kathleen; Kliegman, Robert

2014-01-01

Reviewed available studies of the impact of fetal cocaine exposure on child medical and developmental outcome, as well as the current status of clinical psychological interventions and research strategies. Current studies are inconclusive but suggest that prenatal exposure to crack-cocaine can have significant effects on the growth and neurological development of the infant, with the potential of later learning and behavioral disabilities. Social-environmental correlates of maternal cocaine use are confounding factors with known negative effects on child outcome. Large, population-based studies using multivariate analyses are needed to determine the independent effects of cocaine on child outcome relative to other confounding variables. PMID:1382125

Exploring New Zealand prescription data using sequence symmetry analyses for predicting adverse drug reactions.

PubMed

Nishtala, P S; Chyou, T-Y

2017-04-01

Prescription sequence symmetry analyses (PSSA) is a ubiquitous tool employed in pharmacoepidemiological research to predict adverse drug reactions (ADRs). Several studies have reported the advantage of PSSA as a method that can be applied to a large prescription database with computational ease. The objective of this study was to validate New Zealand (NZ) prescription database as a potential source for identifying ADRs using the PSSA method. We analysed de-identified individual-level prescription data for people aged 65 years and above for the period 2005 to 2014 from the pharmaceutical collections supplied by the NZ Ministry of Health. We selected six positive controls that have been previously investigated and reported for causing ADRs. The six positive controls identified were amiodarone (repeated twice), frusemide, simvastatin, lithium and fluticasone. Amiodarone and lithium have been reported to induce thyroid dysfunction. Simvastatin reported to cause muscle cramps while fluticasone is well documented to cause oral candidiasis. Thyroxine was identified as a marker drug to treat hypothyroidism associated with amiodarone and lithium. Carbimazole was identified as a marker drug to treat hyperthyroidism associated with amiodarone use. Quinine sulphate was identified as a marker drug to treat muscle cramps associated with statins. In addition, we also analysed six negative controls that are unlikely to be associated with ADRs. The main outcome measure is to determine associations with ADRs using adjusted sequence ratios (ASR), and 95% confidence intervals RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: Our analyses confirmed a significant signal for all six positive controls. Significant positive associations were noted for amiodarone [ASR = 3·57, 95% CI (3·17-4·02)], and lithium chloride induced hypothyroidism [ASR = 3·43, 95% CI (2·55-4·70)]. Amiodarone was also strongly associated with hyperthyroidism [ASR = 8·81 95% CI (5·86-13·77)]. Simvastatin was associated with muscle cramps [ASR = 1·69, 95% CI (1·61-1·77)]. Fluticasone was positively associated with oral candidiasis [ASR = 2·34, 95% CI (2·19-2·50)]. Frusemide was associated with hypokalaemia [ASR = 2·94, 95% CI (2·83-3·05]). No strong associations were noted for the negative pairs. It is important to highlight that PSSA automatically controls for all confounding factors including unknown and unmeasured confounding variables, plus the effect of temporal trend in prescriptions, and hence allows a more robust ADR detection especially when confounding factors are difficult to determine or measure. New Zealand prescription database can be a potential source to identify ADRs engaging the PSSA method, and this could complement pharmacovigilance surveillance in NZ. The PSSA can be an important method for post-marketing surveillance and monitoring of ADRs which have relatively short latency. However, the predictive validity of PSSA will be compromised in certain scenarios, particularly when sample size is small, when new drugs are in the market and data are sparse. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Detecting and correcting the bias of unmeasured factors using perturbation analysis: a data-mining approach.

PubMed

Lee, Wen-Chung

2014-02-05

The randomized controlled study is the gold-standard research method in biomedicine. In contrast, the validity of a (nonrandomized) observational study is often questioned because of unknown/unmeasured factors, which may have confounding and/or effect-modifying potential. In this paper, the author proposes a perturbation test to detect the bias of unmeasured factors and a perturbation adjustment to correct for such bias. The proposed method circumvents the problem of measuring unknowns by collecting the perturbations of unmeasured factors instead. Specifically, a perturbation is a variable that is readily available (or can be measured easily) and is potentially associated, though perhaps only very weakly, with unmeasured factors. The author conducted extensive computer simulations to provide a proof of concept. Computer simulations show that, as the number of perturbation variables increases from data mining, the power of the perturbation test increased progressively, up to nearly 100%. In addition, after the perturbation adjustment, the bias decreased progressively, down to nearly 0%. The data-mining perturbation analysis described here is recommended for use in detecting and correcting the bias of unmeasured factors in observational studies.

Causal mediation analysis with a binary outcome and multiple continuous or ordinal mediators: Simulations and application to an alcohol intervention

PubMed Central

Nguyen, Trang Quynh; Webb-Vargas, Yenny; Koning, Ina M.; Stuart, Elizabeth A.

2016-01-01

We investigate a method to estimate the combined effect of multiple continuous/ordinal mediators on a binary outcome: 1) fit a structural equation model with probit link for the outcome and identity/probit link for continuous/ordinal mediators, 2) predict potential outcome probabilities, and 3) compute natural direct and indirect effects. Step 2 involves rescaling the latent continuous variable underlying the outcome to address residual mediator variance/covariance. We evaluate the estimation of risk-difference- and risk-ratio-based effects (RDs, RRs) using the ML, WLSMV and Bayes estimators in Mplus. Across most variations in path-coefficient and mediator-residual-correlation signs and strengths, and confounding situations investigated, the method performs well with all estimators, but favors ML/WLSMV for RDs with continuous mediators, and Bayes for RRs with ordinal mediators. Bayes outperforms WLSMV/ML regardless of mediator type when estimating RRs with small potential outcome probabilities and in two other special cases. An adolescent alcohol prevention study is used for illustration. PMID:27158217

Inferring Demographic History Using Two-Locus Statistics.

PubMed

Ragsdale, Aaron P; Gutenkunst, Ryan N

2017-06-01

Population demographic history may be learned from contemporary genetic variation data. Methods based on aggregating the statistics of many single loci into an allele frequency spectrum (AFS) have proven powerful, but such methods ignore potentially informative patterns of linkage disequilibrium (LD) between neighboring loci. To leverage such patterns, we developed a composite-likelihood framework for inferring demographic history from aggregated statistics of pairs of loci. Using this framework, we show that two-locus statistics are more sensitive to demographic history than single-locus statistics such as the AFS. In particular, two-locus statistics escape the notorious confounding of depth and duration of a bottleneck, and they provide a means to estimate effective population size based on the recombination rather than mutation rate. We applied our approach to a Zambian population of Drosophila melanogaster Notably, using both single- and two-locus statistics, we inferred a substantially lower ancestral effective population size than previous works and did not infer a bottleneck history. Together, our results demonstrate the broad potential for two-locus statistics to enable powerful population genetic inference. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Confounder summary scores when comparing the effects of multiple drug exposures.

PubMed

Cadarette, Suzanne M; Gagne, Joshua J; Solomon, Daniel H; Katz, Jeffrey N; Stürmer, Til

2010-01-01

Little information is available comparing methods to adjust for confounding when considering multiple drug exposures. We compared three analytic strategies to control for confounding based on measured variables: conventional multivariable, exposure propensity score (EPS), and disease risk score (DRS). Each method was applied to a dataset (2000-2006) recently used to examine the comparative effectiveness of four drugs. The relative effectiveness of risedronate, nasal calcitonin, and raloxifene in preventing non-vertebral fracture, were each compared to alendronate. EPSs were derived both by using multinomial logistic regression (single model EPS) and by three separate logistic regression models (separate model EPS). DRSs were derived and event rates compared using Cox proportional hazard models. DRSs derived among the entire cohort (full cohort DRS) was compared to DRSs derived only among the referent alendronate (unexposed cohort DRS). Less than 8% deviation from the base estimate (conventional multivariable) was observed applying single model EPS, separate model EPS or full cohort DRS. Applying the unexposed cohort DRS when background risk for fracture differed between comparison drug exposure cohorts resulted in -7 to + 13% deviation from our base estimate. With sufficient numbers of exposed and outcomes, either conventional multivariable, EPS or full cohort DRS may be used to adjust for confounding to compare the effects of multiple drug exposures. However, our data also suggest that unexposed cohort DRS may be problematic when background risks differ between referent and exposed groups. Further empirical and simulation studies will help to clarify the generalizability of our findings.

Peer influence as a potential magnifier of ADHD diagnosis.

PubMed

Aronson, Brian

2016-11-01

The prevalence of Attention Deficit and Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) is growing in America, but its cause is unclear. Scholars have identified many environmental factors that can cause or confound ADHD diagnosis, but epidemiological studies that try to control for confounding factors still find evidence that rates of ADHD diagnosis are increasing. As a preliminary explanation to ADHD's increasing prevalence, this article examines whether core ADHD diagnostic traits are subject to peer influence. If ADHD diagnosis can be confounded by peer influence, there are several mechanisms that could have caused increased rates of diagnosis. With data drawn from two schools across three waves in the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health (n = 2193), the author uses a stochastic actor oriented model to estimate the effect of peer influence on inattention, controlling for alternative network and behavioral causes. Results indicate that respondents have a strong likelihood to modify their self-reports of inattention, a core ADHD trait, to resemble that of their friends. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metabolic syndrome and shift work: a systematic review.

PubMed

Canuto, Raquel; Garcez, Anderson S; Olinto, Maria T A

2013-12-01

The aim of this systematic review was to examine the association between shift work and metabolic syndrome (MetS) as well as the potential confounders investigated. A systematic search was conducted with the aim of finding original articles on the association between shift work and MetS. The included articles were chosen based on established inclusion criteria; their methodological quality was assessed using a validated quality checklist. A total of 10 articles were included in this review. The majority of the studies were classified as having a low risk of bias. The definitions of MetS and shift work varied between studies. Among the ten studies, eight found a positive association between shift work and MetS after controlling for socio-demographic and behavioral factors. Only three studies included sleep duration as a confounder, and these studies presented discordant results. We conclude that there was insufficient evidence regarding the association between shift work and prevalent MetS when the confounders are taken into account. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Genetic variation of loci potentially under selection confounds species-genetic diversity correlations in a fragmented habitat.

PubMed

Bertin, Angeline; Gouin, Nicolas; Baumel, Alex; Gianoli, Ernesto; Serratosa, Juan; Osorio, Rodomiro; Manel, Stephanie

2017-01-01

Positive species-genetic diversity correlations (SGDCs) are often thought to result from the parallel influence of neutral processes on genetic and species diversity. Yet, confounding effects of non-neutral mechanisms have not been explored. Here, we investigate the impact of non-neutral genetic diversity on SGDCs in high Andean wetlands. We compare correlations between plant species diversity and genetic diversity (GD) calculated with and without loci potentially under selection (outlier loci). The study system includes 2188 specimens from five species (three common aquatic macroinvertebrate and two dominant plant species) that were genotyped for 396 amplified fragment length polymorphism loci. We also appraise the importance of neutral processes on SGDCs by investigating the influence of habitat fragmentation features. Significant positive SGDCs were detected for all five species (mean SGDC = 0.52 ± 0.05). While only a few outlier loci were detected in each species, they resulted in significant decreases in GD and in SGDCs. This supports the hypothesis that neutral processes drive species-genetic diversity relationships in high Andean wetlands. Unexpectedly, the effects on genetic diversity GD of the habitat fragmentation characteristics in this study increased with the presence of outlier loci in two species. Overall, our results reveal pitfalls in using habitat features to infer processes driving SGDCs and show that a few loci potentially under selection are enough to cause a significant downward bias in SGDC. Investigating confounding effects of outlier loci thus represents a useful approach to evidence the contribution of neutral processes on species-genetic diversity relationships. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Discriminatory Ability of the Fibromyalgia Rapid Screening Tool (FiRST): An International Study in Spain and Four Latin American Countries.

PubMed

Collado, Antonio; Torres, Xavier; Messina, Osvaldo D; Vidal, Luis F; Clark, Patricia; Ríos, Carlos; Solé, Emília; Arias, Anna; Perrot, Serge; Salomon, Patricia A

2016-05-01

To assess the transcultural equivalency of the Spanish version of the Fibromyalgia Rapid Screening Tool (FiRST) and its discriminatory ability in different Latin American samples. Validation study. Departments of Rheumatology in general hospitals and private centers; fibromyalgia unit in a university hospital. 350 chronic pain patients from Spain, Argentina, Mexico, Peru, and Ecuador. The cultural relevance of the Spanish version of the FiRST was evaluated. The ability of the FiRST as a screening tool for fibromyalgia was assessed by logistic regression analysis. To determine the degree to which potential confounders, such as differences in demographics, pain, affective distress, catastrophizing, and disability, might affect the discriminatory ability, the tool was reassessed by hierarchical multivariate logistic regression. Slightly different versions of the FiRST were recommended for use in each Latin American subsample. The FiRST showed acceptable criterion validity and was able to discriminate between fibromyalgia and non-fibromyalgia patients even after controlling for the effect of potential confounders. However, low specificities were observed in samples from Spain and Mexico. The Spanish version of the FiRST may be used as a screening tool for fibromyalgia in several Latin American subsamples, even in those patients with high scores on potential confounders. In Spain and Mexico, the low specificity of the FiRST suggests, however, that it would be best used to support a suspected diagnosis of fibromyalgia, rather than to exclude the diagnosis. © 2015 American Academy of Pain Medicine. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Increased popliteal circumferential wall tension induced by orthostatic body posture is associated with local atherosclerotic plaques.

PubMed

Gemignani, Tiago; Azevedo, Renata C; Higa, Celina M; Coelho, Otávio R; Matos-Souza, José R; Nadruz, Wilson

2012-09-01

Lower limb arteries are exposed to higher hemodynamic burden in erectile posture. This study evaluated the effects of body posture on popliteal, carotid and brachial circumferential wall tension (CWT) and investigated the relationship between local CWT and atherosclerotic plaques in subjects with cardiovascular risk factors. Two hundred and three subjects (118 women and 85 men) with cardiovascular risk factors (smoking, hypertension or diabetes mellitus) underwent clinical and laboratory analysis and had their blood pressure measured in the arm and calf in supine and orthostatic positions. Arteries were evaluated by ultrasound analysis, while CWT was calculated according to Laplace's law. Among the enrolled participants, 47%, 29% and none presented popliteal, carotid and brachial plaques, respectively. Carotid CWT measurements were not associated with local plaques after adjustment for potential confounders. Conversely, general linear model and logistic regression analyses adjusted for potential confounders demonstrated that peak orthostatic CWT was the only local hemodynamic parameter showing significant relationship with popliteal plaques in the whole sample. In gender-specific analyses, although positively correlated with popliteal plaques in both genders, local peak orthostatic CWT exhibited an independent association with popliteal plaques after adjustment for potential confounders only in women. Popliteal CWT measured in orthostatic posture, rather than in supine position, is associated with popliteal atherosclerotic plaques, particularly in women. These findings suggest that erectile posture might play a role in the atherogenesis of leg arteries by modifying local hemodynamic forces and that there may be gender differences in this regard. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Wavelet-based functional linear mixed models: an application to measurement error-corrected distributed lag models.

PubMed

Malloy, Elizabeth J; Morris, Jeffrey S; Adar, Sara D; Suh, Helen; Gold, Diane R; Coull, Brent A

2010-07-01

Frequently, exposure data are measured over time on a grid of discrete values that collectively define a functional observation. In many applications, researchers are interested in using these measurements as covariates to predict a scalar response in a regression setting, with interest focusing on the most biologically relevant time window of exposure. One example is in panel studies of the health effects of particulate matter (PM), where particle levels are measured over time. In such studies, there are many more values of the functional data than observations in the data set so that regularization of the corresponding functional regression coefficient is necessary for estimation. Additional issues in this setting are the possibility of exposure measurement error and the need to incorporate additional potential confounders, such as meteorological or co-pollutant measures, that themselves may have effects that vary over time. To accommodate all these features, we develop wavelet-based linear mixed distributed lag models that incorporate repeated measures of functional data as covariates into a linear mixed model. A Bayesian approach to model fitting uses wavelet shrinkage to regularize functional coefficients. We show that, as long as the exposure error induces fine-scale variability in the functional exposure profile and the distributed lag function representing the exposure effect varies smoothly in time, the model corrects for the exposure measurement error without further adjustment. Both these conditions are likely to hold in the environmental applications we consider. We examine properties of the method using simulations and apply the method to data from a study examining the association between PM, measured as hourly averages for 1-7 days, and markers of acute systemic inflammation. We use the method to fully control for the effects of confounding by other time-varying predictors, such as temperature and co-pollutants.

Occupational Stress and Physical Symptoms among Family Medicine Residents

PubMed Central

Choi, So-Myung; Park, Yong Soon; Kim, Go-Young

2013-01-01

Background The purpose of this study was to examine the levels of occupational stress and physical symptoms among family medicine residents and investigate the effect of subscales of occupational stress on physical symptoms. Methods A self-administered questionnaire survey of 1,152 family medicine residents was carried out via e-mail from April 2010 to July 2010. The response rate was 13.1% and the R (ver. 2.9.1) was used for the analysis of completed data obtained from 150 subjects. The questionnaire included demographic factors, resident training related factors, 24-items of the Korean Occupational Stress Scales and Korean Versions of the Wahler Physical Symptom Inventory. Results The total score of occupational stress of family medicine residents was relatively low compared to that of average workers. The scores of 'high job demand', 'inadequate social support', 'organizational injustice', and 'discomfort in occupational climate' were within the top 50%. Parameters associated with higher occupational stress included level of training, on-duty time, daily patient load, critical patient assigned, total working days, night duty day, sleep duration, and sleep quality. The six subscales of occupational stress, except for 'Job insecurity', had a significant positive correlation with physical symptom scores after adjustment had been made for potential confounders (total score, r = 0.325 and P < 0.001; high job demand, r = 0.439 and P < 0.001). Conclusion After the adjustment had been made for potential confounders, the total score of occupational stress and six subscales in family medicine residents showed a significant positive correlation with physical symptom scores. PMID:23372906

Minimum Wage and Overweight and Obesity in Adult Women: A Multilevel Analysis of Low and Middle Income Countries

PubMed Central

Conklin, Annalijn I.; Ponce, Ninez A.; Frank, John; Nandi, Arijit; Heymann, Jody

2016-01-01

Objectives To describe the relationship between minimum wage and overweight and obesity across countries at different levels of development. Methods A cross-sectional analysis of 27 countries with data on the legislated minimum wage level linked to socio-demographic and anthropometry data of non-pregnant 190,892 adult women (24–49 y) from the Demographic and Health Survey. We used multilevel logistic regression models to condition on country- and individual-level potential confounders, and post-estimation of average marginal effects to calculate the adjusted prevalence difference. Results We found the association between minimum wage and overweight/obesity was independent of individual-level SES and confounders, and showed a reversed pattern by country development stage. The adjusted overweight/obesity prevalence difference in low-income countries was an average increase of about 0.1 percentage points (PD 0.075 [0.065, 0.084]), and an average decrease of 0.01 percentage points in middle-income countries (PD -0.014 [-0.019, -0.009]). The adjusted obesity prevalence difference in low-income countries was an average increase of 0.03 percentage points (PD 0.032 [0.021, 0.042]) and an average decrease of 0.03 percentage points in middle-income countries (PD -0.032 [-0.036, -0.027]). Conclusion This is among the first studies to examine the potential impact of improved wages on an important precursor of non-communicable diseases globally. Among countries with a modest level of economic development, higher minimum wage was associated with lower levels of obesity. PMID:26963247

Muscle thickness measurements of the lower trapezius with rehabilitative ultrasound imaging are confounded by scapular dyskinesis.

PubMed

Seitz, Amee L; Baxter, Caralyn J; Benya, Kristen

2015-08-01

Alterations in scapular muscle activity have been theorized to contribute to abnormal scapular motion and shoulder pain, but pose challenges to quantify in the clinic. Rehabilitative Ultrasound Imaging (RUSI) has proved useful identifying dysfunction of lumbar regional stabilizing muscle activity, specifically contractile behavior. Although, recent examinations of scapular stabilizing trapezius muscle function using RUSI did not detect alterations individuals with shoulder pain or differences in muscle thickness between varying external loads in asymptomatic individuals, a potential confounder to prior results, scapular dyskinesis has not been controlled. It is unknown if dyskinesis alters scapular muscle thickness during activation measured with RUSI. Thus, the purpose of this study was to compare change in scapular muscle thickness between individuals with and without scapular dyskinesis. Thirty-nine asymptomatic adults with (n = 19) and without (n = 20) scapular dyskinesis, defined with a reliable and validated method, participated. Two separate ultrasound images of the serratus anterior (SA) and lower trapezius (LT) were captured under two randomized conditions, rest and isometric contraction against gravity, and saved for blinded measurement. Change in thickness with contraction was calculated and expressed as a percentage. The dyskinesis group demonstrated a greater increase (p = 0.005) in LT thickness with the isometric contraction than the group without (mean difference = 31.6%; 95%CI = 10.3, 53.0). No differences in SA or resting thickness of either muscle were found between groups. The presence of scapular dyskinesis alters thickness changes of the lower trapezius during activation. Furthermore, potential underlying reasons beyond muscle contractile behavior must be considered. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Normal cognitive conflict resolution in psychosis patients with and without schizophrenia.

PubMed

Smid, Henderikus G O M; Bruggeman, Richard; Martens, Sander

2016-01-01

Schizophrenia is thought to be associated with impairments of executive functions, among which conflict control functions play an important role. The available evidence, however, suggests that conflict control is intact in schizophrenia, despite being based on methods that have successfully unveiled conflict control problems in other disorders. Differences between schizophrenia patients and healthy controls in stimulus perception, selective attention, alertness, processing speed and reaction time variability may have been previously overlooked. By controlling for these potential confounders, the present experiments were aimed to be more rigorous tests of the hypothesis that psychosis and schizophrenia are associated with impairments of conflict control. To that end, 27 healthy controls and 53 recent-onset psychosis patients with (n = 27) and without schizophrenia (n = 26) with comparable age, intelligence, and education level, performed three iconic conflict control tasks: the Simon task, the Eriksen flanker task, and the Stroop task, all equipped with neutral trials, and analyzed for various potential confounders. They further performed a battery of standard neuropsychological tests. Schizophrenia patients showed no increased conflict effects in any of the 3 tasks for any alternative measures used. Nonschizophrenia patients only showed abnormally increased response competition in the Simon task. All patients nevertheless demonstrated impaired control of attention and verbal memory. These findings indicate that the type of conflict control engaged by conflict tasks is intact in recent-onset schizophrenia, suggesting that a major component of executive function is spared in schizophrenia. We discuss these findings in terms of proactive and reactive control. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved.

The ad-libitum alcohol 'taste test': secondary analyses of potential confounds and construct validity.

PubMed

Jones, Andrew; Button, Emily; Rose, Abigail K; Robinson, Eric; Christiansen, Paul; Di Lemma, Lisa; Field, Matt

2016-03-01

Motivation to drink alcohol can be measured in the laboratory using an ad-libitum 'taste test', in which participants rate the taste of alcoholic drinks whilst their intake is covertly monitored. Little is known about the construct validity of this paradigm. The objective of this study was to investigate variables that may compromise the validity of this paradigm and its construct validity. We re-analysed data from 12 studies from our laboratory that incorporated an ad-libitum taste test. We considered time of day and participants' awareness of the purpose of the taste test as potential confounding variables. We examined whether gender, typical alcohol consumption, subjective craving, scores on the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test and perceived pleasantness of the drinks predicted ad-libitum consumption (construct validity). We included 762 participants (462 female). Participant awareness and time of day were not related to ad-libitum alcohol consumption. Males drank significantly more alcohol than females (p < 0.001), and individual differences in typical alcohol consumption (p = 0.04), craving (p < 0.001) and perceived pleasantness of the drinks (p = 0.04) were all significant predictors of ad-libitum consumption. We found little evidence that time of day or participant awareness influenced alcohol consumption. The construct validity of the taste test was supported by relationships between ad-libitum consumption and typical alcohol consumption, craving and pleasantness ratings of the drinks. The ad-libitum taste test is a valid method for the assessment of alcohol intake in the laboratory.

Exposure to traffic noise and air pollution and risk for febrile seizure: a cohort study.

PubMed

Hjortebjerg, Dorrit; Nybo Andersen, Anne-Marie; Ketzel, Matthias; Raaschou-Nielsen, Ole; Sørensen, Mette

2018-03-25

Objectives Exposure to traffic noise and air pollution is suspected to increase susceptibility to viral infections - the main triggering factor for febrile seizures. No studies have examined these two exposures in relation to febrile seizures. We aimed to investigate whether exposure to road traffic noise and air pollution are associated with risk of febrile seizures in childhood. Methods From our study base of 51 465 singletons from a national birth cohort, we identified 2175 cases with febrile seizures using a nationwide registry. Residential address history from conception to six years of age were found in national registers, and road traffic noise (L den ) and air pollution (NO 2 ) were modeled for all addresses. Analyses were done using Cox proportional hazard model with adjustment for potential confounders, including mutual exposure adjustment. Results An interquartile range (IQR) increase in childhood exposure to road traffic noise and air pollution was associated with an 11% [incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.11, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.19) and 5% (IRR 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.07) higher risk for febrile seizures, respectively, after adjustment for potential confounders. Weaker tendencies were seen for pregnancy exposure. In models with mutual exposure adjustment, the estimates were slightly lower, with IRR of 1.08 (95% CI 1.00-1.16) and 1.03 (95% CI 0.99-1.06) per IQR increase in childhood exposure to road traffic noise and air pollution, respectively. Conclusions This study suggests that residential exposure to road traffic noise and air pollution is associated with higher risk for febrile seizures.

HOMA-IR Values are Associated With Glycemic Control in Japanese Subjects Without Diabetes or Obesity: The KOBE Study

PubMed Central

Hirata, Takumi; Higashiyama, Aya; Kubota, Yoshimi; Nishimura, Kunihiro; Sugiyama, Daisuke; Kadota, Aya; Nishida, Yoko; Imano, Hironori; Nishikawa, Tomofumi; Miyamatsu, Naomi; Miyamoto, Yoshihiro; Okamura, Tomonori

2015-01-01

Background Several studies have reported that insulin resistance was a major risk factor for the onset of type 2 diabetes mellitus in individuals without diabetes or obesity. We aimed to clarify the association between insulin resistance and glycemic control in Japanese subjects without diabetes or obesity. Methods We conducted a community-based cross-sectional study including 1083 healthy subjects (323 men and 760 women) in an urban area. We performed multivariate regression analyses to estimate the association between the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) values and markers of glycemic control, including glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), 1,5-anhydroglucitol (1,5-AG), and fasting plasma glucose (FPG) levels, after adjustment for potential confounders. Results Compared with the lowest tertile of HOMA-IR values, the highest tertile was significantly associated with HbA1c and FPG levels after adjustment for potential confounders, both in men (HbA1c: β = 1.83, P = 0.001; FPG: β = 0.49, P < 0.001) and women (HbA1c: β = 0.82, P = 0.008; FPG: β = 0.39, P < 0.001). The highest tertile of HOMA-IR values was inversely associated with 1,5-AG levels compared with the lowest tertile (β = −18.42, P = 0.009) only in men. Conclusions HOMA-IR values were associated with markers of glycemic control in Japanese subjects without diabetes or obesity. Insulin resistance may influence glycemic control even in a lean, non-diabetic Asian population. PMID:26005064

Design Issues in Small-Area Studies of Environment and Health

PubMed Central

Elliott, Paul; Savitz, David A.

2008-01-01

Background Small-area studies are part of the tradition of spatial epidemiology, which is concerned with the analysis of geographic patterns of disease with respect to environmental, demographic, socioeconomic, and other factors. We focus on etiologic research, where the aim is to make inferences about spatially varying environmental factors influencing the risk of disease. Methods and results We illustrate the approach through three exemplars: a) magnetic fields from overhead electric power lines and the occurrence of childhood leukemia, which illustrates the use of geographic information systems to focus on areas with high exposure prevalence; b) drinking-water disinfection by-products and reproductive outcomes, taking advantage of large between- to within-area variability in exposures from the water supply; and c) chronic exposure to air pollutants and cardiorespiratory health, where issues of socioeconomic confounding are particularly important. Discussion The small-area epidemiologic approach assigns exposure estimates to individuals based on location of residence or other geographic variables such as workplace or school. In this way, large populations can be studied, increasing the ability to investigate rare exposures or rare diseases. The approach is most effective when there is well-defined exposure variation across geographic units, limited within-area variation, and good control for potential confounding across areas. Conclusions In conjunction with traditional individual-based approaches, small-area studies offer a valuable addition to the armamentarium of the environmental epidemiologist. Modeling of exposure patterns coupled with collection of individual-level data on subsamples of the population should lead to improved risk estimates (i.e., less potential for bias) and help strengthen etiologic inference. PMID:18709174

Entorhinal Cortex Volume in Antipsychotic-naïve Schizophrenia.

PubMed

Jose, Sam P; Sharma, Eesha; Narayanaswamy, Janardhanan C; Rajendran, Vishnurajan; Kalmady, Sunil V; Rao, Naren P; Venkatasubramanian, Ganesan; Gangadhar, Bangalore N

2012-04-01

Entorhinal cortex (ERC), a multimodal sensory relay station for the hippocampus, is critically involved in learning, emotion, and novelty detection. One of the pathogenetic mechanistic bases in schizophrenia is proposed to involve aberrant information processing in the ERC. Several studies have looked at cytoarchitectural and morphometric changes in the ERC, but results have been inconsistent possibly due to the potential confounding effects of antipsychotic treatment. In this study, we have examined the entorhinal cortex volume in antipsychotic-naïve schizophrenia patients (n=40; M:F=22:18) in comparison with age, sex, and handedness, matched (as a group) with healthy subjects (n=42; M:F=25:17) using a valid method. 3-Tesla MR images with 1-mm sections were used and the data was analyzed using the SPSS software. Female schizophrenia patients (1.25±0.22 mL) showed significant volume deficit in the right ERC in comparison with female healthy controls (1.45±0.34 mL) (F=4.9; P=0.03), after controlling for the potential confounding effects of intracranial volume. However, male patients did not differ from male controls. The left ERC volume did not differ between patients and controls. Consistent with the findings of a few earlier studies we found a reduction in the right ERC volume in patients. However, this was limited to women. Contextually, our study finding supports the role for ERC deficit in schizophrenia pathogenesis - perhaps mediated through aberrant novelty detection. Sex-differential observation of ERC volume deficit in schizophrenia needs further studies.

Does appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy modify intensive care unit-acquired Enterobacteriaceae bacteraemia mortality and discharge?

PubMed

Pouwels, K B; Van Kleef, E; Vansteelandt, S; Batra, R; Edgeworth, J D; Smieszek, T; Robotham, J V

2017-05-01

Conflicting results have been found regarding outcomes of intensive care unit (ICU)-acquired Enterobacteriaceae bacteraemia and the potentially modifying effect of appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy. To evaluate these associations while adjusting for potential time-varying confounding using methods from the causal inference literature. Patients who stayed more than two days in two general ICUs in England between 2002 and 2006 were included in this cohort study. Marginal structural models with inverse probability weighting were used to estimate the mortality and discharge associated with Enterobacteriaceae bacteraemia and the impact of appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy on these outcomes. Among 3411 ICU admissions, 195 (5.7%) ICU-acquired Enterobacteriaceae bacteraemia cases occurred. Enterobacteriaceae bacteraemia was associated with an increased daily risk of ICU death [cause-specific hazard ratio (HR): 1.48; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.10-1.99] and a reduced daily risk of ICU discharge (HR: 0.66; 95% CI: 0.54-0.80). Appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy did not significantly modify ICU mortality (HR: 1.08; 95% CI: 0.59-1.97) or discharge (HR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.63-1.32). ICU-acquired Enterobacteriaceae bacteraemia was associated with an increased daily risk of ICU mortality. Furthermore, the daily discharge rate was also lower after acquiring infection, even when adjusting for time-varying confounding using appropriate methodology. No evidence was found for a beneficial modifying effect of appropriate empiric antibiotic therapy on ICU mortality and discharge. Crown Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Type and Timing of Menopause and Later Life Mortality Among Women in the Iowa Established Populations for the Epidemiological Study of the Elderly Cohort

PubMed Central

Cooper, Rachel; Wallace, Robert B.; Guralnik, Jack M.

2012-01-01

Abstract Background The relationship between menopausal characteristics and later life mortality is unclear. We tested the hypotheses that women with surgical menopause would have increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality compared with women with natural menopause, and that women with earlier ages at natural or surgical menopause would have greater all-cause and cardiovascular mortality than women with later ages at menopause. Methods Women who participated in the Iowa cohort of the Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly (n=1684) reported menopausal characteristics and potential confounding variables at baseline and were followed up for up to 24 years. Participants were aged 65 years or older at baseline and lived in rural areas. We used survival analysis to examine the relationships between menopausal characteristics and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Results A total of 1477 women (87.7% of respondents) died during the study interval. Women with an age at natural menopause ≥55 years had increased all-cause and cardiovascular disease mortality compared with women who had natural menopause at younger ages. Type of menopause and age at surgical menopause were not related to mortality. These patterns persisted after adjustment for potential confounding variables. Conclusions Among an older group of women from a rural area of the United States, later age at natural menopause was related to increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. Monitoring the cardiovascular health of this group of older women may contribute to improved survival times. PMID:21970557

Absence of evidence for increase in risk for autism or attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder following antidepressant exposure during pregnancy: a replication study.

PubMed

Castro, V M; Kong, S W; Clements, C C; Brady, R; Kaimal, A J; Doyle, A E; Robinson, E B; Churchill, S E; Kohane, I S; Perlis, R H

2016-01-05

Multiple studies have examined the risk of prenatal antidepressant exposure and risk for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) or attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), with inconsistent results. Precisely estimating such risk, if any, is of great importance in light of the need to balance such risk with the benefit of depression and anxiety treatment. We developed a method to integrate data from multiple New England health systems, matching offspring and maternal health data in electronic health records to characterize diagnoses and medication exposure. Children with ASD or ADHD were matched 1:3 with children without neurodevelopmental disorders. Association between maternal antidepressant exposure and ASD or ADHD liability was examined using logistic regression, adjusting for potential sociodemographic and psychiatric confounding variables. In new cohorts of 1245 ASD cases and 1701 ADHD cases, along with age-, sex- and socioeconomic status matched controls, neither disorder was significantly associated with prenatal antidepressant exposure in crude or adjusted models (adjusted odds ratio 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.50-1.54 for ASD; 0.97, 95% confidence interval 0.53-1.69 for ADHD). Pre-pregnancy antidepressant exposure significantly increased risk for both disorders. These results suggest that prior reports of association between prenatal antidepressant exposure and neurodevelopmental disease are likely to represent a false-positive finding, which may arise in part through confounding by indication. They further demonstrate the potential to integrate data across electronic health records studies spanning multiple health systems to enable efficient pharmacovigilance investigation.

Psychosocial Assessment of Self-Harm Patients and Risk of Repeat Presentation: An Instrumental Variable Analysis Using Time of Hospital Presentation.

PubMed

Carroll, Robert; Metcalfe, Chris; Steeg, Sarah; Davies, Neil M; Cooper, Jayne; Kapur, Nav; Gunnell, David

2016-01-01

Clinical guidelines have recommended psychosocial assessment of self-harm patients for years, yet estimates of its impact on the risk of repeat self-harm vary. Assessing the association of psychosocial assessment with risk of repeat self-harm is challenging due to the effects of confounding by indication. We analysed data from a cohort study of 15,113 patients presenting to the emergency departments of three UK hospitals to investigate the association of psychosocial assessment with risk of repeat hospital presentation for self-harm. Time of day of hospital presentation was used as an instrument for psychosocial assessment, attempting to control for confounding by indication. Conventional regression analysis suggested psychosocial assessment was not associated with risk of repeat self-harm within 12 months (Risk Difference (RD) 0.00 95% confidence interval (95%CI) -0.01 to 0.02). In contrast, IV analysis suggested risk of repeat self-harm was reduced by 18% (RD -0.18, 95%CI -0.32 to -0.03) in those patients receiving a psychosocial assessment. However, the instrument of time of day did not remove all potential effects of confounding by indication, suggesting the IV effect estimate may be biased. We found that psychosocial assessments reduce risk of repeat self-harm. This is in-line with other non-randomised studies based on populations in which allocation to assessment was less subject to confounding by indication. However, as our instrument did not fully balance important confounders across time of day, the IV effect estimate should be interpreted with caution.

Myopia and cognitive dysfunction among elderly Chinese adults: a propensity score matching analysis.

PubMed

Sun, Hong-Peng; Liu, Hu; Xu, Yong; Pan, Chen-Wei

2016-03-01

The association between myopia and cognitive dysfunction among elderly adults was assessed by applying a Propensity Score Matching (PSM) approach. This is a statistical method which allows investigators to estimate causal treatment effects using observational or nonrandomised data. The study was designed as a community-based cross-sectional study based on a Chinese cohort aged 60 years or older in China. Objective refraction was measured using an autorefractor and subjective refraction was used to refine vision, using the results of the objective refraction as the starting point. Myopia was defined as a spherical equivalent value of less than -0.50 dioptre (D) in the right eye. The Abbreviated Mental Test (AMT) was used for cognitive assessment. The propensity scores for myopia were formulated using 13 potential confounders. We matched the propensity scores for subjects with and without myopia within a caliper of 0.01 of logit function of propensity scores. About 4123 elderly adults who successfully completed the AMT were included in this analysis. The odds ratio (OR) of cognitive dysfunction for myopia before matching was 1.98 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.61, 2.44; p < 0.001). There were significant covariate imbalances between comparison groups and after propensity score matching, covariate imbalance was significantly reduced. After propensity score matching, the OR of cognitive dysfunction was marginally significant and the magnitude of association was reduced (OR: 1.31 95% CI 1.00, 1.71; p = 0.05). Traditional multivariate logistic regression modelling found an OR of 1.52 (95% CI 1.23, 2.06; p < 0.001) after adjusting for the 13 potential confounders. Myopia was associated with a higher prevalence of cognitive dysfunction among elderly Chinese aged 60 years or older in China. The PSM approach may be a useful method to address selection bias in observational studies when randomised trials cannot ethically be conducted. © 2015 The Authors Ophthalmic & Physiological Optics © 2015 The College of Optometrists.

Iron Status Predicts Malaria Risk in Malawian Preschool Children

PubMed Central

Jonker, Femkje A. M.; Calis, Job C. J.; van Hensbroek, Michael Boele; Phiri, Kamija; Geskus, Ronald B.; Brabin, Bernard J.; Leenstra, Tjalling

2012-01-01

Introduction Iron deficiency is highly prevalent in pre-school children in developing countries and an important health problem in sub-Saharan Africa. A debate exists on the possible protective effect of iron deficiency against malaria and other infections; yet consensus is lacking due to limited data. Recent studies have focused on the risks of iron supplementation but the effect of an individual's iron status on malaria risk remains unclear. Studies of iron status in areas with a high burden of infections often are exposed to bias. The aim of this study was to assess the predictive value of baseline iron status for malaria risk explicitly taking potential biases into account. Methods and materials We prospectively assessed the relationship between baseline iron deficiency (serum ferritin <30 µg/L) and malaria risk in a cohort of 727 Malawian preschool children during a year of follow-up. Data were analyzed using marginal structural Cox regression models and confounders were selected using causal graph theory. Sensitivity of results to bias resulting from misclassification of iron status by concurrent inflammation and to bias from unmeasured confounding were assessed using modern causal inference methods. Results and Conclusions The overall incidence of malaria parasitemia and clinical malaria was 1.9 (95% CI 1.8–2.0) and 0.7 (95% CI 0.6–0.8) events per person-year, respectively. Children with iron deficiency at baseline had a lower incidence of malaria parasitemia and clinical malaria during a year of follow-up; adjusted hazard ratio's 0.55 (95%-CI:0.41–0.74) and 0.49 (95%-CI:0.33–0.73), respectively. Our results suggest that iron deficiency protects against malaria parasitemia and clinical malaria in young children. Therefore the clinical importance of treating iron deficiency in a pre-school child should be weighed carefully against potential harms. In malaria endemic areas treatment of iron deficiency in children requires sustained prevention of malaria. PMID:22916146

Party package travel: alcohol use and related problems in a holiday resort: a mixed methods study.

PubMed

Hesse, Morten; Tutenges, Sébastien; Schliewe, Sanna; Reinholdt, Tine

2008-10-07

People travelling abroad tend to increase their use of alcohol and other drugs. In the present study we describe organized party activities in connection with young tourists' drinking, and the differences between young people travelling with and without organized party activities. We conducted ethnographic observations and a cross-sectional survey in Sunny Beach, Bulgaria. The behaviour of the guides from two travel agencies strongly promoted heavy drinking, but discouraged illicit drug use. Even after controlling for several potential confounders, young people who travelled with such "party package travel agencies" were more likely to drink 12 or more units when going out. In univariate analyses, they were also more likely to get into fights, but were not more likely to seek medical assistance or medical assistance for an accident or an alcohol-related problem. After controlling for confounders, the association between type of travel agency and getting into fights was no longer significant. Short-term consequences of drinking in the holiday resort did not differ between party package travellers and ordinary package travellers. There may be a small impact of party package travels on young people's drinking. Strategies could be developed used to minimise the harm associated with both party package travel and other kinds of travel where heavy substance use is likely to occur.

Associations Between Divorce and Onset of Drug Abuse in a Swedish National Sample.

PubMed

Edwards, Alexis C; Larsson Lönn, Sara; Sundquist, Jan; Kendler, Kenneth S; Sundquist, Kristina

2018-05-01

Rates of drug abuse are higher among divorced individuals than among those who are married, but it is not clear whether divorce itself is a risk factor for drug abuse or whether the observed association is confounded by other factors. We examined the association between divorce and onset of drug abuse in a population-based Swedish cohort born during 1965-1975 (n = 651,092) using Cox proportional hazards methods, with marital status as a time-varying covariate. Potential confounders (e.g., demographics, adolescent deviance, and family history of drug abuse) were included as covariates. Parallel analyses were conducted for widowhood and drug-abuse onset. In models with adjustments, divorce was associated with a substantial increase in risk of drug-abuse onset in both sexes (hazard ratios > 5). Co-relative analyses (among biological relatives) were consistent with a partially causal role of divorce on drug-abuse onset. Widowhood also increased risk of drug-abuse onset, although to a lesser extent. Divorce is a potent risk factor for onset of drug abuse, even after adjusting for deviant behavior in adolescence and family history of drug abuse. The somewhat less-pronounced association with widowhood, particularly among men, suggests that the magnitude of association between divorce and drug abuse may not be generalizable to the end of a relationship.

Early school attainment in late-preterm infants.

PubMed

Peacock, Philip J; Henderson, John; Odd, David; Emond, Alan

2012-02-01

To investigate whether infants born late-preterm have poorer school attainment compared to those born at term. This study used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Key stage one (KS1) school assessment results were obtained from local education authorities. Logistic regression models were used to investigate the effect of gestation, that is, late-preterm (32-36 weeks) versus term (37-41 weeks), on success in KS1 teacher assessments. Regression models were adjusted for potential confounders, including maternal education and markers of socioeconomic status. There were 12 089 term infants and 734 late-preterm infants. 71% of late-preterm children were successful in KS1 assessments compared to 79% of those born at term (OR 0.64 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.78); p<0.001). This difference persisted on adjusting for potential confounders (OR 0.74 (95% CI 0.59 to 0.92); p=0.007). Children born late-preterm are less likely to be successful in early school assessments than those born at term. This group of vulnerable children warrants closer surveillance for early identification of potential educational failure.

The assessment of cortisol in human hair: associations with sociodemographic variables and potential confounders.

PubMed

Dettenborn, L; Tietze, A; Kirschbaum, C; Stalder, T

2012-11-01

To inform the future use of hair cortisol measurement, we have investigated influences of potential confounding variables (natural hair colour, frequency of hair washes, age, sex, oral contraceptive (OC) use and smoking status) on hair cortisol levels. The main study sample comprised 360 participants (172 women) covering a wide range of ages (1-91 years; mean = 25.95). In addition, to more closely examine influences of natural hair colour and young age on hair cortisol levels, two additional samples comprising 69 participants with natural blond or dark brown hair (hair colour sample) as well as 28 young children and 34 adults (young age sample) were recruited. Results revealed a lack of an effect for natural hair colour, OC use, and smoking status on hair cortisol levels (all p's >0.10). No influence of frequency of hair washes was seen for proximal hair segments (p = 0.335) but for the third hair segment indicating lower cortisol content (p = 0.008). We found elevated hair cortisol levels in young children and older adults (p < 0.001). Finally, men showed higher hair cortisol levels than women (p = 0.002). The present data indicate that hair cortisol measurement provides a useful tool in stress-related psychobiological research when applied with the consideration of possible confounders including age and sex.

An epidemiological and toxicological evaluation of the carcinogenicity of man-made vitreous fiber, with a consideration of coexposures.

PubMed

Wong, O; Musselman, R P

1994-01-01

Exposure to man-made mineral (or vitreous) fiber (MMMF or MMVF) is a potential health concern in both occupational and environmental settings. Previous epidemiologic studies have reported a small increase of lung cancer among workers exposed to MMVF. Most of these studies were cohort studies and lacked information on fiber concentration, occupational coexposures, and cigarette smoking. Some of the coexposures were known human lung carcinogens and could have accounted for the small lung cancer excess. In a recently completed epidemiologic case-control study of lung cancer in MMVF workers exposed to slag wool fibers, we analyzed lung cancer risk in relation to cumulative fiber exposure (concentration and duration) and smoking history and controlled for other coexposures such as asbestos contamination. No increased lung cancer risk with exposure to slag wool fibers was found. As expected, however, we detected a strong confounding effect of smoking. The findings from this epidemiologic study were consistent with the results of recently completed toxicologic studies, which found that slag wool fibers of dimension classically associated with tumor induction ("Stanton" fibers) do not stay in the lung in sufficient quantity or time to induce tumors in animals. In this paper we emphasize the importance of confounding effects due to coexposures and provide guidelines to estimate the magnitude of potential confounding effects of coexposures such as smoking.

Removing the effect of response time on brain activity reveals developmental differences in conflict processing in the posterior medial prefrontal cortex.

PubMed

Carp, Joshua; Fitzgerald, Kate Dimond; Taylor, Stephan F; Weissman, Daniel H

2012-01-02

In functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) studies, researchers often attempt to ensure that group differences in brain activity are not confounded with group differences in mean reaction time (RT). However, even when groups are matched for performance, they may differ in terms of the RT-BOLD relationship: the degree to which brain activity varies with RT on a trial-by-trial basis. Group activation differences might therefore be influenced by group differences in the relationship between brain activity and time on task. Here, we investigated whether correcting for this potential confound alters group differences in brain activity. Specifically, we reanalyzed data from a functional MRI study of response conflict in children and adults, in which conventional analyses indicated that conflict-related activity did not differ between groups. We found that the RT-BOLD relationship was weaker in children than in adults. Consequently, after removing the effect of RT on brain activity, children exhibited greater conflict-related activity than adults in both the posterior medial prefrontal cortex and the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. These results identify the RT-BOLD relationship as an important potential confound in fMRI studies of group differences. They also suggest that the magnitude of the RT-BOLD relationship may be a useful biomarker of brain maturity. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The impacts of speed cameras on road accidents: an application of propensity score matching methods.

PubMed

Li, Haojie; Graham, Daniel J; Majumdar, Arnab

2013-11-01

This paper aims to evaluate the impacts of speed limit enforcement cameras on reducing road accidents in the UK by accounting for both confounding factors and the selection of proper reference groups. The propensity score matching (PSM) method is employed to do this. A naïve before and after approach and the empirical Bayes (EB) method are compared with the PSM method. A total of 771 sites and 4787 sites for the treatment and the potential reference groups respectively are observed for a period of 9 years in England. Both the PSM and the EB methods show similar results that there are significant reductions in the number of accidents of all severities at speed camera sites. It is suggested that the propensity score can be used as the criteria for selecting the reference group in before-after control studies. Speed cameras were found to be most effective in reducing accidents up to 200 meters from camera sites and no evidence of accident migration was found. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Small intestinal permeability is increased in diarrhoea predominant IBS, while alterations in gastroduodenal permeability in all IBS subtypes are largely attributable to confounders.

PubMed

Mujagic, Z; Ludidi, S; Keszthelyi, D; Hesselink, M A M; Kruimel, J W; Lenaerts, K; Hanssen, N M J; Conchillo, J M; Jonkers, D M A E; Masclee, A A M

2014-08-01

Intestinal permeability has been studied in small groups of IBS patients with contrasting findings. To assess intestinal permeability at different sites of the GI tract in different subtypes of well-characterised IBS patients and healthy controls (HC), and to assess potential confounding factors. IBS patients and HC underwent a multi-sugar test to assess site-specific intestinal permeability. Sucrose excretion and lactulose/rhamnose ratio in 0-5 h urine indicated gastroduodenal and small intestinal permeability, respectively. Sucralose/erythritol ratio in 0-24 h and 5-24 h urine indicated whole gut and colonic permeability, respectively. Linear regression analysis was used to assess the association between IBS groups and intestinal permeability and to adjust for age, sex, BMI, anxiety or depression, smoking, alcohol intake and use of medication. Ninety-one IBS patients, i.e. 37% IBS-D, 23% IBS-C, 33% IBS-M and 7% IBS-U and 94 HC were enrolled. Urinary sucrose excretion was significantly increased in the total IBS group [μmol, median (Q1;Q3): 5.26 (1.82;11.03) vs. 2.44 (0.91;5.85), P < 0.05], as well as in IBS-C and IBS-D vs. HC. However, differences attenuated when adjusting for confounders. The lactulose/rhamnose ratio was increased in IBS-D vs. HC [0.023 (0.013;0.038) vs. 0.014 (0.008;0.025), P < 0.05], which remained significant after adjustment for confounders. No difference was found in 0-24 and 5-24 h sucralose/erythritol ratio between groups. Small intestinal permeability is increased in patients with IBS-D compared to healthy controls, irrespective of confounding factors. Adjustment for confounders is necessary when studying intestinal permeability, especially in a heterogeneous disorder such as IBS. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quantification of confounding factors in MRI-based dose calculations as applied to prostate IMRT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maspero, Matteo; Seevinck, Peter R.; Schubert, Gerald; Hoesl, Michaela A. U.; van Asselen, Bram; Viergever, Max A.; Lagendijk, Jan J. W.; Meijer, Gert J.; van den Berg, Cornelis A. T.

2017-02-01

Magnetic resonance (MR)-only radiotherapy treatment planning requires pseudo-CT (pCT) images to enable MR-based dose calculations. To verify the accuracy of MR-based dose calculations, institutions interested in introducing MR-only planning will have to compare pCT-based and computer tomography (CT)-based dose calculations. However, interpreting such comparison studies may be challenging, since potential differences arise from a range of confounding factors which are not necessarily specific to MR-only planning. Therefore, the aim of this study is to identify and quantify the contribution of factors confounding dosimetric accuracy estimation in comparison studies between CT and pCT. The following factors were distinguished: set-up and positioning differences between imaging sessions, MR-related geometric inaccuracy, pCT generation, use of specific calibration curves to convert pCT into electron density information, and registration errors. The study comprised fourteen prostate cancer patients who underwent CT/MRI-based treatment planning. To enable pCT generation, a commercial solution (MRCAT, Philips Healthcare, Vantaa, Finland) was adopted. IMRT plans were calculated on CT (gold standard) and pCTs. Dose difference maps in a high dose region (CTV) and in the body volume were evaluated, and the contribution to dose errors of possible confounding factors was individually quantified. We found that the largest confounding factor leading to dose difference was the use of different calibration curves to convert pCT and CT into electron density (0.7%). The second largest factor was the pCT generation which resulted in pCT stratified into a fixed number of tissue classes (0.16%). Inter-scan differences due to patient repositioning, MR-related geometric inaccuracy, and registration errors did not significantly contribute to dose differences (0.01%). The proposed approach successfully identified and quantified the factors confounding accurate MRI-based dose calculation in the prostate. This study will be valuable for institutions interested in introducing MR-only dose planning in their clinical practice.

Estimating Causal Effects in Observational Studies using Electronic Health Data: Challenges and (Some) Solutions

PubMed Central

Stuart, Elizabeth A.; DuGoff, Eva; Abrams, Michael; Salkever, David; Steinwachs, Donald

2013-01-01

Electronic health data sets, including electronic health records (EHR) and other administrative databases, are rich data sources that have the potential to help answer important questions about the effects of clinical interventions as well as policy changes. However, analyses using such data are almost always non-experimental, leading to concerns that those who receive a particular intervention are likely different from those who do not in ways that may confound the effects of interest. This paper outlines the challenges in estimating causal effects using electronic health data and offers some solutions, with particular attention paid to propensity score methods that help ensure comparisons between similar groups. The methods are illustrated with a case study describing the design of a study using Medicare and Medicaid administrative data to estimate the effect of the Medicare Part D prescription drug program on individuals with serious mental illness. PMID:24921064

Introduction to the use of regression models in epidemiology.

PubMed

Bender, Ralf

2009-01-01

Regression modeling is one of the most important statistical techniques used in analytical epidemiology. By means of regression models the effect of one or several explanatory variables (e.g., exposures, subject characteristics, risk factors) on a response variable such as mortality or cancer can be investigated. From multiple regression models, adjusted effect estimates can be obtained that take the effect of potential confounders into account. Regression methods can be applied in all epidemiologic study designs so that they represent a universal tool for data analysis in epidemiology. Different kinds of regression models have been developed in dependence on the measurement scale of the response variable and the study design. The most important methods are linear regression for continuous outcomes, logistic regression for binary outcomes, Cox regression for time-to-event data, and Poisson regression for frequencies and rates. This chapter provides a nontechnical introduction to these regression models with illustrating examples from cancer research.

Probe-based real-time PCR method for multilocus melt typing of Xylella fastidiosa strains.

PubMed

Brady, Jeff A; Faske, Jennifer B; Ator, Rebecca A; Castañeda-Gill, Jessica M; Mitchell, Forrest L

2012-04-01

Epidemiological studies of Pierce's disease (PD) can be confounded by a lack of taxonomic detail on the bacterial causative agent, Xylella fastidiosa (Xf). PD in grape is caused by strains of Xylella fastidiosa subsp. fastidiosa, but is not caused by other subspecies of Xf that typically colonize plants other than grape. Detection assays using ELISA and qPCR are effective at detecting and quantifying Xf presence or absence, but offer no information on Xf subspecies or strain identity. Surveying insects or host plants for Xf by current ELISA or qPCR methods provides only presence/absence and quantity information for any and all Xf subspecies, potentially leading to false assessments of disease threat. This study uses a series of adjacent-hybridizing DNA melt analysis probes that are capable of efficiently discriminating Xf subspecies and strain relationships in rapid real-time PCR reactions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Alternating treatments design: one strategy for comparing the effects of two treatments in a single subject.

PubMed Central

Barlow, D H; Hayes, S C

1979-01-01

A little used and often confused design, capable of comparing two treatments within a single subject, has been termed, variously, a multielement baseline design, a multiple schedule design, and a randomization design. The background of these terms is reviewed, and a new, more descriptive term, Alternating Treatments Design, is proposed. Critical differences between this design and a Simultaneous Treatment Design are outlined, and experimental questions answerable by each design are noted. Potential problems with multiple treatment interference in this procedure are divided into sequential confounding, carryover effects, and alternation effects and the importance of these issues vis-a-vis other single-case experimental designs is considered. Methods of minimizing multiple treatment interference as well as methods of studying these effects are outlined. Finally, appropriate uses of Alternating Treatments Designs are described and discussed in the context of recent examples. PMID:489478

Best (but oft-forgotten) practices: propensity score methods in clinical nutrition research.

PubMed

Ali, M Sanni; Groenwold, Rolf Hh; Klungel, Olaf H

2016-08-01

In observational studies, treatment assignment is a nonrandom process and treatment groups may not be comparable in their baseline characteristics, a phenomenon known as confounding. Propensity score (PS) methods can be used to achieve comparability of treated and nontreated groups in terms of their observed covariates and, as such, control for confounding in estimating treatment effects. In this article, we provide a step-by-step guidance on how to use PS methods. For illustrative purposes, we used simulated data based on an observational study of the relation between oral nutritional supplementation and hospital length of stay. We focused on the key aspects of PS analysis, including covariate selection, PS estimation, covariate balance assessment, treatment effect estimation, and reporting. PS matching, stratification, covariate adjustment, and weighting are discussed. R codes and example data are provided to show the different steps in a PS analysis. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

Understanding the Cycle

PubMed Central

Currie, Janet; Tekin, Erdal

2013-01-01

Child maltreatment is a major social problem. This paper focuses on measuring the relationship between child maltreatment and crime using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (Add Health). We focus on crime because it is one of the most costly potential outcomes of maltreatment. Our work addresses two main limitations of the existing literature on child maltreatment. First, we use a large national sample, and investigate different types of maltreatment in a unified framework. Second, we pay careful attention to controlling for possible confounders using a variety of statistical methods that make differing assumptions. The results suggest that maltreatment greatly increases the probability of engaging in crime and that the probability increases with the experience of multiple forms of maltreatment. PMID:24204082

A powerful and efficient set test for genetic markers that handles confounders

PubMed Central

Listgarten, Jennifer; Lippert, Christoph; Kang, Eun Yong; Xiang, Jing; Kadie, Carl M.; Heckerman, David

2013-01-01

Motivation: Approaches for testing sets of variants, such as a set of rare or common variants within a gene or pathway, for association with complex traits are important. In particular, set tests allow for aggregation of weak signal within a set, can capture interplay among variants and reduce the burden of multiple hypothesis testing. Until now, these approaches did not address confounding by family relatedness and population structure, a problem that is becoming more important as larger datasets are used to increase power. Results: We introduce a new approach for set tests that handles confounders. Our model is based on the linear mixed model and uses two random effects—one to capture the set association signal and one to capture confounders. We also introduce a computational speedup for two random-effects models that makes this approach feasible even for extremely large cohorts. Using this model with both the likelihood ratio test and score test, we find that the former yields more power while controlling type I error. Application of our approach to richly structured Genetic Analysis Workshop 14 data demonstrates that our method successfully corrects for population structure and family relatedness, whereas application of our method to a 15 000 individual Crohn’s disease case–control cohort demonstrates that it additionally recovers genes not recoverable by univariate analysis. Availability: A Python-based library implementing our approach is available at http://mscompbio.codeplex.com. Contact: jennl@microsoft.com or lippert@microsoft.com or heckerma@microsoft.com Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:23599503

Paternal and maternal alcohol abuse and offspring mental distress in the general population: the Nord-Trøndelag health study

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The degree to which parental alcohol abuse is a risk factor for offspring mental distress is unclear, due to conflicting results of previous research. The inconsistencies in previous findings may be related to sample characteristics and lack of control of confounding or moderating factors. One such factor may be the gender of the abusing parent. Also, other factors, such as parental mental health, divorce, adolescent social network, school functioning or self-esteem, may impact the outcome. This study examines the impact of maternal and paternal alcohol abuse on adolescent mental distress, including potentially confounding, mediating or moderating effects of various variables. Methods Data from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT), a Norwegian population based health survey, from 4012 offspring and their parents were analyzed. Parental alcohol abuse was measured by numerical consumption indicators and CAGE, whereas offspring mental distress was measured by SCL-5, an abbreviated instrument tapping symptoms of anxiety and depression. Statistical method was analysis of variance. Results Maternal alcohol abuse was related to offspring mental distress, whereas no effect could be shown of paternal alcohol abuse. Effects of maternal alcohol abuse was partly mediated by parental mental distress, offspring social network and school functioning. However, all effects were relatively small. Conclusions The results indicate graver consequences for offspring of alcohol abusing mothers compared to offspring of alcohol abusing fathers. However, small effect sizes suggest that adolescent offspring of alcohol abusing parents in general manage quite well. PMID:22708789

Lung dose and the potential risk of death in postoperative radiation therapy for non-small cell lung cancer: A study using the method of stratified grouping.

PubMed

Heo, Jaesung; Noh, O Kyu; Kim, Hwan-Ik; Chun, Mison; Cho, Oyeon; Park, Rae Woong; Yoon, Dukyong; Oh, Young-Taek

2018-04-19

Postoperative radiation therapy may have a detrimental effect on survival in patients with non-small cell lung cancer. We investigated the association of the lung radiation dose with the risk of death in patients treated with postoperative radiation therapy. We analyzed 178 patients with non-small cell lung cancer who received postoperative radiation therapy. The mean lung dose was calculated from dose-volume data, and we categorized patients into the high and low lung dose groups using 2 different methods; (1) simple grouping using the median lung dose of all patients, and (2) stratified grouping using the median lung dose of each subgroup sharing the same confounders. We compared clinical variables, and survival between the high and low lung dose groups. In the simple grouping, there were no significant differences in survivals between the high and low lung dose groups. After stratification, the overall survival of low lung dose group was significantly longer than that of high lung dose group (5-year survival, 60.1% vs. 35.3%, p = 0.039). On multivariable analyses, the lung dose remained a significant prognostic factor for overall survival (hazard ratio, HR = 2.08, p = 0.019). The lung dose was associated with the risk of death in patients with non-small cell lung cancer having the same confounders. Further studies evaluating the risk of death according to the lung dose will be helpful to administer more precise and individualized postoperative radiation therapy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adherence to a Mediterranean diet is associated with lower prevalence of osteoarthritis: Data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

PubMed

Veronese, Nicola; Stubbs, Brendon; Noale, Marianna; Solmi, Marco; Luchini, Claudio; Smith, Toby O; Cooper, Cyrus; Guglielmi, Giuseppe; Reginster, Jean-Yves; Rizzoli, Renè; Maggi, Stefania

2017-12-01

The Mediterranean diet appears to be beneficial for several medical conditions, but data regarding osteoarthritis (OA) are not available. The aim of this study was to investigate if adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with a lower prevalence of OA of the knee in a large cohort from North America. 4358 community-dwelling participants (2527 females; mean age: 61.2 years) from the Osteoarthritis Initiative were included. Adherence to the Mediterranean diet was evaluated through a validated Mediterranean diet score (aMED) categorized into quartiles (Q). Knee OA was diagnosed both clinically and radiologically. The strength of the association between aMED (divided in quartiles) and knee OA was investigated through a logistic regression analysis and reported as odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), adjusted for potential confounders. Participants with a higher adherence to Mediterranean diet had a significantly lower prevalence of knee OA compared to those with lower adherence (Q4: 25.2% vs. Q1: 33.8%; p < 0.0001). Using a logistic regression analysis, adjusting for 10 potential confounders with those in the lowest quartile of aMED as reference, participants with the highest aMED had a significant reduction in presence of knee OA (OR, 0.83; 95% CIs: 0.69-0.99, p = 0.04). Among the individual components of Mediterranean diet, only higher use of cereals was associated with lower odds of having knee OA (OR: 0.76; 95%CI: 0.60-0.98; p = 0.03). Higher adherence to a Mediterranean diet is associated with lower prevalence of knee OA. This remained when adjusting for potential confounders. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism. All rights reserved.

Unfazed or Dazed and Confused: Does Early Adolescent Marijuana Use Cause Sustained Impairments in Attention and Academic Functioning?

PubMed Central

Pardini, Dustin; White, Helene; Xiong, Shuangyan; Bechtold, Jordan; Chung, Tammy; Loeber, Rolf; Hipwell, Alison

2015-01-01

There is some suggestion that heavy marijuana use during early adolescence (prior to age 17) may cause significant impairments in attention and academic functioning that remain following sustained periods of abstinence. However, no longitudinal studies have examined whether both male and female adolescents who engage in low (less than once a month) to moderate (at least once a monthly) marijuana use experience increased problems with attention and academic performance, and whether these problems remain following sustained abstinence. The current study used within-individual change models to control for all potential pre-existing and time-stable confounds when examining this potential causal association in two gender-specific longitudinal samples assessed annually from ages 11 to 16 (Pittsburgh Youth Study N=479; Pittsburgh Girls Study N=2296). Analyses also controlled for the potential influence of several pertinent time-varying factors (e.g., other substance use, peer delinquency). Prior to controlling for time-varying confounds, analyses indicated that adolescents tended to experience an increase in parent-reported attention and academic problems, relative to their pre-onset levels, during years when they used marijuana. After controlling for several time-varying confounds, only the association between marijuana use and attention problems in the sample of girls remained statistically significant. There was no evidence indicating that adolescents who used marijuana experienced lingering attention and academic problems, relative to their pre-onset levels, after abstaining from use for at least a year. These results suggest that adolescents who engage in low to moderate marijuana use experience an increase in observable attention and academic problems, but these problems appear to be minimal and are eliminated following sustained abstinence. PMID:25862212

Associations between Nausea, Vomiting, Fatigue and Health-Related Quality of Life of Women in Early Pregnancy: The Generation R Study.

PubMed

Bai, Guannan; Korfage, Ida J; Groen, Esther Hafkamp-de; Jaddoe, Vincent W V; Mautner, Eva; Raat, Hein

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to evaluate the independent associations between nausea, vomiting, fatigue and health-related quality of life of women in early pregnancy in the Generation R study, which is a prospective mother and child cohort. Analyses were based on 5079 women in early pregnancy in the Rotterdam area, the Netherlands. The information on nausea, vomiting and fatigue in the previous three months was measured in the questionnaire at enrollment, as well as potential confounders (i.e., maternal/gestational age, ethnic background, educational level, parity, marital status, body mass index, tobacco and alcohol use, chronic/infectious conditions, uro-genital conditions/symptoms, sleep quality, headache, anxiety, and depression). Health-related quality of life was assessed by the 12-item Short Form Health Survey and physical and mental component summary scores were calculated. Multivariate regression models were performed to evaluate the independent associations of the presence of nausea, vomiting and fatigue with health-related quality of life, adjusting for potential confounders. 33.6% of women experienced daily presence of nausea, 9.6% for vomiting and 44.4% for fatigue. Comparing with women who never reported nausea, vomiting and fatigue, women with daily presence of at least one of these symptoms had significantly lower scores of physical component summary and mental component summary, after adjusting for potential confounders. Our study shows how common nausea, vomiting and fatigue are among women in early pregnancy and how much each of these symptoms negatively impact on health-related quality of life. We call for awareness of this issue from health care professionals, pregnant women and their families.

Cancer incidence in Holocaust male survivors-An Israeli cohort study.

PubMed

Keinan-Boker, Lital; Goldbourt, Uri

2016-12-01

Previous studies, often using proxy exposure assessment and not controlling for individual risk factors, suggested higher cancer risk in Holocaust survivors. We have used individual-level data from a male cohort of Israeli civil servants recruited in 1963 to investigate cancer incidence in Holocaust survivors, controlling for potential confounders. The analysis included 4,669 Europe-born subjects; 689 exposed = E (immigrated to Israel after 1939 and reported of being in Nazi camps during World War II); 2,307 potentially exposed = PE (immigrated to Israel after 1939 and reported of not being in Nazi camps); and 1,673 non-exposed = NE (immigrated to Israel prior to 1939). Vital status and cancer incidence in the cohort were determined based on national registries. Socioeconomic level, health behaviors and cancer incidence were compared between the groups and Cox proportional hazards regression models adjusting for potential confounders assessed hazard risk ratios for cancer by exposure status. All-cause mortality was studied as a competing risk. In total, 241, 682, and 522 cancer cases were diagnosed in the E, PE, and NE, respectively. Compared with the NE, all-site cancer incidence was higher in the E (HR = 1.13, 95%CI 0.97-1.32) but not in the PE. All-cause mortality competed with all-site invasive cancer incidence in the E group (HR = 1.18, 95%CI 1.02-1.38). Colorectal and lung cancer seemed to be positively though non-significantly associated with the exposure while prostate cancer was not. Male Holocaust survivors may be at a weakly increased risk for all-site, colorectal and lung cancer. The role of age at exposure and residual confounding should be further investigated. © 2016 UICC.

Association of vitamin D status with metabolic syndrome and its components: A cross-sectional study in a population of high educated Iranian adults.

PubMed

Mansouri, Masoume; Abasi, Roshanak; Nasiri, Morteza; Sharifi, Farshad; Vesaly, Sedyghe; Sadeghi, Omid; Rahimi, Nayere; Sharif, Nasrin Akbary

2018-05-01

We aimed to assess the association of vitamin D status with metabolic syndrome and its components among high educated Iranian adults. In this cross-sectional study, 352 faculty members with age of 35 years or more, belong to Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Islamic Republic of Iran, were recruited during 2016 and 2017. Fasting blood samples were obtained to quantify serum 25(OH)D concentrations, glycemic indicators and lipid profile. Metabolic syndrome was defined based on the guidelines of the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP III). Multivariate logistic regression adjusted for potential confounders was used to evaluate the association between vitamin D status and metabolic syndrome. Metabolic syndrome and vitamin D insufficiency were prevalent among 26% and 60.2% of subjects, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference in the prevalence of metabolic syndrome across quartiles of 25(OH)D levels either before or after adjusting for potential confounders (OR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.43-1.95). In terms of metabolic syndrome components, subjects in the highest quartile of vitamin D levels had 59% decreased risk of abdominal obesity compared with those in the lowest quartile (OR: 0.41, 95% CI: 0.17-0.99), after adjusting for potential confounders. Such inverse relationship was also seen for elevated blood pressure (OR: 0.37, 95% CI: 0.14-0.99), and abnormal glucose homeostasis (OR: 0.40, 95% CI: 0.19-0.85). Serum levels of 25(OH)D was inversely associated with the risk of abdominal obesity, hypertension, and abnormal glucose homeostasis. However, no significant relationship was seen for metabolic syndrome. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A Genetic Test Predicts Providence Brace Success for Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis When Failure Is Defined as Progression to >45 Degrees.

PubMed

Bohl, Daniel D; Telles, Connor J; Ruiz, Ferrin K; Badrinath, Raghav; DeLuca, Peter A; Grauer, Jonathan N

2016-04-01

Retrospective cohort. To determine whether a genetic test is associated with successful Providence bracing for adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS). Genetic factors have been defined that predict the risk of progression of AIS in a polygenic fashion. From these data, a commercially available genetic test, ScoliScore, was developed. It is now used in clinical practice for counseling and to guide clinical management. Bracing is a mainstay of treatment for AIS. Large efforts have been made recently to reduce potential confounding across studies of different braces; however, none of these have considered genetics as a potential confounder. In particular, ScoliScore has not been evaluated in a population undergoing bracing. We conducted a retrospective cohort study in which we identified a population of AIS patients who were initiated with Providence bracing and followed over time. Although these patients did not necessarily fit the commercial indications for ScoliScore, we contacted the patients and obtained a saliva sample from each for genetic analysis. We then tested whether ScoliScore correlated with the outcome of their bracing therapy. We were able to contact and invite 25 eligible subjects, of whom 16 (64.0%) returned samples for laboratory analysis. Patients were followed for an average of 2.3 years (range, 1.1-4 y) after initiation of the Providence brace. Eight patients (50.0%) progressed to >45 degrees, whereas the other 8 patients (50.0%) did not. The mean ScoliScore among those who progressed to >45 degrees was higher than that among those who did not (176 vs. 112, P=0.030). We demonstrate that a genetic test correlates with bracing outcome. It may be appropriate for future bracing studies to include analysis of genetic predisposition to limit potential confounding.

Case-control vaccine effectiveness studies: Preparation, design, and enrollment of cases and controls.

PubMed

Verani, Jennifer R; Baqui, Abdullah H; Broome, Claire V; Cherian, Thomas; Cohen, Cheryl; Farrar, Jennifer L; Feikin, Daniel R; Groome, Michelle J; Hajjeh, Rana A; Johnson, Hope L; Madhi, Shabir A; Mulholland, Kim; O'Brien, Katherine L; Parashar, Umesh D; Patel, Manish M; Rodrigues, Laura C; Santosham, Mathuram; Scott, J Anthony; Smith, Peter G; Sommerfelt, Halvor; Tate, Jacqueline E; Victor, J Chris; Whitney, Cynthia G; Zaidi, Anita K; Zell, Elizabeth R

2017-06-05

Case-control studies are commonly used to evaluate effectiveness of licensed vaccines after deployment in public health programs. Such studies can provide policy-relevant data on vaccine performance under 'real world' conditions, contributing to the evidence base to support and sustain introduction of new vaccines. However, case-control studies do not measure the impact of vaccine introduction on disease at a population level, and are subject to bias and confounding, which may lead to inaccurate results that can misinform policy decisions. In 2012, a group of experts met to review recent experience with case-control studies evaluating the effectiveness of several vaccines; here we summarize the recommendations of that group regarding best practices for planning, design and enrollment of cases and controls. Rigorous planning and preparation should focus on understanding the study context including healthcare-seeking and vaccination practices. Case-control vaccine effectiveness studies are best carried out soon after vaccine introduction because high coverage creates strong potential for confounding. Endpoints specific to the vaccine target are preferable to non-specific clinical syndromes since the proportion of non-specific outcomes preventable through vaccination may vary over time and place, leading to potentially confusing results. Controls should be representative of the source population from which cases arise, and are generally recruited from the community or health facilities where cases are enrolled. Matching of controls to cases for potential confounding factors is commonly used, although should be reserved for a limited number of key variables believed to be linked to both vaccination and disease. Case-control vaccine effectiveness studies can provide information useful to guide policy decisions and vaccine development, however rigorous preparation and design is essential. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Unfazed or Dazed and Confused: Does Early Adolescent Marijuana Use Cause Sustained Impairments in Attention and Academic Functioning?

PubMed

Pardini, Dustin; White, Helene R; Xiong, Shuangyan; Bechtold, Jordan; Chung, Tammy; Loeber, Rolf; Hipwell, Alison

2015-10-01

There is some suggestion that heavy marijuana use during early adolescence (prior to age 17) may cause significant impairments in attention and academic functioning that remain despite sustained periods of abstinence. However, no longitudinal studies have examined whether both male and female adolescents who engage in low (less than once a month) to moderate (at least once a monthly) marijuana use experience increased problems with attention and academic performance, and whether these problems remain following sustained abstinence. The current study used within-individual change models to control for all potential pre-existing and time-stable confounds when examining this potential causal association in two gender-specific longitudinal samples assessed annually from ages 11 to 16 (Pittsburgh Youth Study N = 479; Pittsburgh Girls Study N = 2296). Analyses also controlled for the potential influence of several pertinent time-varying factors (e.g., other substance use, peer delinquency). Prior to controlling for time-varying confounds, analyses indicated that adolescents tended to experience an increase in parent-reported attention and academic problems, relative to their pre-onset levels, during years when they used marijuana. After controlling for several time-varying confounds, only the association between marijuana use and attention problems in the sample of girls remained statistically significant. There was no evidence indicating that adolescents who used marijuana experienced lingering attention and academic problems, relative to their pre-onset levels, after abstaining from use for at least a year. These results suggest that adolescents who engage in low to moderate marijuana use experience an increase in observable attention and academic problems, but these problems appear to be minimal and are eliminated following sustained abstinence.

Supervisor Autonomy and Considerate Leadership Style are Associated with Supervisors' Likelihood to Accommodate Back Injured Workers.

PubMed

McGuire, Connor; Kristman, Vicki L; Shaw, William; Williams-Whitt, Kelly; Reguly, Paula; Soklaridis, Sophie

2015-09-01

To determine the association between supervisors' leadership style and autonomy and supervisors' likelihood of supporting job accommodations for back-injured workers. A cross-sectional study of supervisors from Canadian and US employers was conducted using a web-based, self-report questionnaire that included a case vignette of a back-injured worker. Autonomy and two dimensions of leadership style (considerate and initiating structure) were included as exposures. The outcome, supervisors' likeliness to support job accommodation, was measured with the Job Accommodation Scale (JAS). We conducted univariate analyses of all variables and bivariate analyses of the JAS score with each exposure and potential confounding factor. We used multivariable generalized linear models to control for confounding factors. A total of 796 supervisors participated. Considerate leadership style (β = .012; 95% CI .009-.016) and autonomy (β = .066; 95% CI .025-.11) were positively associated with supervisors' likelihood to accommodate after adjusting for appropriate confounding factors. An initiating structure leadership style was not significantly associated with supervisors' likelihood to accommodate (β = .0018; 95% CI -.0026 to .0061) after adjusting for appropriate confounders. Autonomy and a considerate leadership style were positively associated with supervisors' likelihood to accommodate a back-injured worker. Providing supervisors with more autonomy over decisions of accommodation and developing their considerate leadership style may aid in increasing work accommodation for back-injured workers and preventing prolonged work disability.

Residential Road Traffic Noise and High Depressive Symptoms after Five Years of Follow-up: Results from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study

PubMed Central

Orban, Ester; McDonald, Kelsey; Sutcliffe, Robynne; Hoffmann, Barbara; Fuks, Kateryna B.; Dragano, Nico; Viehmann, Anja; Erbel, Raimund; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz; Pundt, Noreen; Moebus, Susanne

2015-01-01

Background: Traffic noise affects a large number of people, particularly in urbanized areas. Noise causes stress and annoyance, but less is known about the relationship between noise and depression. Objective: We investigated the association of residential road traffic noise with depressive symptoms using 5-year follow-up data from a German population-based study. Methods: We analyzed data from 3,300 participants in the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study who were between 45 and 75 years old and were without depressive symptoms at baseline (2000–2003). Depressive symptoms were defined based on the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale (CES-D) 15-item questionnaire (total score ≥ 17) and antidepressant medication intake. Road traffic noise was modeled according to European Parliament/Council Directive 2002/49/EC. High noise exposure was defined as annual mean 24-hr noise levels > 55 A-weighted decibels [dB(A)]. Poisson regression with robust variance was used to estimate relative risks (RRs) a) adjusting for the potential confounders age, sex, socioeconomic status (SES), neighborhood-level SES, and traffic proximity; b) additionally adjusting for body mass index and smoking; and c) additionally adjusting for the potential confounders/intermediates comorbidities and insomnia. Results: Overall, 35.7% of the participants were exposed to high residential road traffic noise levels. At follow-up (mean = 5.1 years after baseline), 302 participants were classified as having high depressive symptoms, corresponding to an adjusted RR of 1.29 (95% CI: 1.03, 1.62; Model 1) for exposure to > 55 versus ≤ 55 dB(A). Adjustment for potential confounders/intermediates did not substantially alter the results. Associations were stronger among those who reported insomnia at baseline (RR = 1.62; 95% CI: 1.10, 2.59 vs. RR = 1.21; 95% CI: 0.94, 1.57) and appeared to be limited to those with ≤ 13 years of education (RR = 1.43; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.85 vs. 0.92; 95% CI: 0.56, 1.53 for > 13 years). Conclusion: Our results suggest that exposure to residential road traffic noise increases the risk of depressive symptoms. Citation: Orban E, McDonald K, Sutcliffe R, Hoffmann B, Fuks KB, Dragano N, Viehmann A, Erbel R, Jöckel KH, Pundt N, Moebus S. 2016. Residential road traffic noise and high depressive symptoms after five years of follow-up: results from the Heinz Nixdorf Recall Study. Environ Health Perspect 124:578–585; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409400 PMID:26606640

Studying neuroanatomy using MRI.

PubMed

Lerch, Jason P; van der Kouwe, André J W; Raznahan, Armin; Paus, Tomáš; Johansen-Berg, Heidi; Miller, Karla L; Smith, Stephen M; Fischl, Bruce; Sotiropoulos, Stamatios N

2017-02-23

The study of neuroanatomy using imaging enables key insights into how our brains function, are shaped by genes and environment, and change with development, aging and disease. Developments in MRI acquisition, image processing and data modeling have been key to these advances. However, MRI provides an indirect measurement of the biological signals we aim to investigate. Thus, artifacts and key questions of correct interpretation can confound the readouts provided by anatomical MRI. In this review we provide an overview of the methods for measuring macro- and mesoscopic structure and for inferring microstructural properties; we also describe key artifacts and confounds that can lead to incorrect conclusions. Ultimately, we believe that, although methods need to improve and caution is required in interpretation, structural MRI continues to have great promise in furthering our understanding of how the brain works.

Residential proximity to electromagnetic field sources and birth weight: Minimizing residual confounding using multiple imputation and propensity score matching.

PubMed

de Vocht, Frank; Lee, Brian

2014-08-01

Studies have suggested that residential exposure to extremely low frequency (50 Hz) electromagnetic fields (ELF-EMF) from high voltage cables, overhead power lines, electricity substations or towers are associated with reduced birth weight and may be associated with adverse birth outcomes or even miscarriages. We previously conducted a study of 140,356 singleton live births between 2004 and 2008 in Northwest England, which suggested that close residential proximity (≤ 50 m) to ELF-EMF sources was associated with reduced average birth weight of 212 g (95%CI: -395 to -29 g) but not with statistically significant increased risks for other adverse perinatal outcomes. However, the cohort was limited by missing data for most potentially confounding variables including maternal smoking during pregnancy, which was only available for a small subgroup, while also residual confounding could not be excluded. This study, using the same cohort, was conducted to minimize the effects of these problems using multiple imputation to address missing data and propensity score matching to minimize residual confounding. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation using chained equations to generate five datasets. For each dataset 115 exposed women (residing ≤ 50 m from a residential ELF-EMF source) were propensity score matched to 1150 unexposed women. After doubly robust confounder adjustment, close proximity to a residential ELF-EMF source remained associated with a reduction in birth weight of -116 g (95% confidence interval: -224:-7 g). No effect was found for proximity ≤ 100 m compared to women living further away. These results indicate that although the effect size was about half of the effect previously reported, close maternal residential proximity to sources of ELF-EMF remained associated with suboptimal fetal growth. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

PubMed

Fowler, Mike S; Ruokolainen, Lasse

2013-01-01

The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies) dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies) in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate). Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental) series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback) models: autoregressive [AR(1)] and sinusoidal (1/f) models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1) models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing) populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1) methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We must let the characteristics of known natural environmental covariates (e.g., colour and distribution shape) guide us in our choice of how to best model the impact of coloured environmental variation on population dynamics.

Elevated C-reactive protein and posttraumatic stress pathology among survivors of the 9/11 World Trade Center attacks.

PubMed

Rosen, Rebecca L; Levy-Carrick, Nomi; Reibman, Joan; Xu, Ning; Shao, Yongzhao; Liu, Mengling; Ferri, Lucia; Kazeros, Angeliki; Caplan-Shaw, Caralee E; Pradhan, Deepak R; Marmor, Michael; Galatzer-Levy, Isaac R

2017-06-01

Systemic inflammation has emerged as a promising marker and potential mechanism underlying post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The relationship between posttraumatic stress pathology and systemic inflammation has not, however, been consistently replicated and is potentially confounded by comorbid illness or injury, common complications of trauma exposure. We analyzed a large naturalistic cohort sharing a discrete physical and mental health trauma from the destruction of the World Trade Center (WTC) towers on September 11, 2001 (n = 641). We evaluated the relationship between multiple physical and mental health related indices collected through routine evaluations at the WTC Environmental Health Center (WTC EHC), a treatment program for community members exposed to the disaster. C-Reactive Protein (CRP), a marker of systemic inflammation, was examined in relation to scores for PTSD, PTSD symptom clusters (re-experiencing, avoidance, negative cognitions/mood, arousal), depression and anxiety, while controlling for WTC exposures, lower respiratory symptoms, age, sex, BMI and smoking as potential risks or confounders. CRP was positively associated with PTSD severity (p < 0.001), trending toward association with depression (p = 0.06), but not with anxiety (p = 0.27). CRP was positively associated with re-experiencing (p < 0.001) and avoidance (p < 0.05) symptom clusters, and trended toward associations with negative cognitions/mood (p = 0.06) and arousal (p = 0.08). In this large study of the relationship between CRP and posttraumatic stress pathology, we demonstrated an association between systemic inflammation and stress pathology (PTSD; trending with depression), which remained after adjusting for potentially confounding variables. These results contribute to research findings suggesting a salient relationship between inflammation and posttraumatic stress pathology. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Minorities Are Disproportionately Underrepresented in Special Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morgan, Paul L.; Farkas, George; Hillemeier, Marianne M.; Mattison, Richard; Maczuga, Steve; Li, Hui; Cook, Michael

2015-01-01

We investigated whether minority children attending U.S. elementary and middle schools are disproportionately represented in special education. We did so using hazard modeling of multiyear longitudinal data and extensive covariate adjustment for potential child-, family-, and state-level confounds. Minority children were consistently less likely…

The link between early onset drinking and early onset alcohol-impaired driving in young males.

PubMed

Zhang, Lening; Wieczorek, William F; Welte, John W

2014-05-01

Young drivers represent a disproportionate number of the individuals involved in alcohol-impaired driving. Although there is a known association between drinking and alcohol-impaired driving in young drivers, the link between early onset drinking and early onset alcohol-impaired driving has not been explored. The present study aimed to assess this link along with potentially confounding factors. The assessment used a proportional hazards model with data collected from the Buffalo Longitudinal Study of Young Men, a population-based sample of 625 males at aged 16-19. Controlling for the effects of potentially relevant confounds, the early onset of drinking was the most influential factor in predicting the early onset of alcohol-impaired driving. Race and the early onset of other forms of delinquency also played a significant role in the early onset of alcohol-impaired driving. Preventing an early start of drinking among adolescents may be the most critical factor to address in preventing an early start of alcohol-impaired driving.

Dose-response relationships between internally-deposited uranium and select health outcomes in gaseous diffusion plant workers, 1948-2011.

PubMed

Yiin, James H; Anderson, Jeri L; Bertke, Stephen J; Tollerud, David J

2018-05-09

To examine dose-response relationships between internal uranium exposures and select outcomes among a cohort of uranium enrichment workers. Cox regression was conducted to examine associations between selected health outcomes and cumulative internal uranium with consideration for external ionizing radiation, work-related medical X-rays and contaminant radionuclides technetium ( 99 Tc) and plutonium ( 239 Pu) as potential confounders. Elevated and monotonically increasing mortality risks were observed for kidney cancer, chronic renal diseases, and multiple myeloma, and the association with internal uranium absorbed organ dose was statistically significant for multiple myeloma. Adjustment for potential confounders had minimal impact on the risk estimates. Kidney cancer, chronic renal disease, and multiple myeloma mortality risks were elevated with increasing internal uranium absorbed organ dose. The findings add to evidence of an association between internal exposure to uranium and cancer. Future investigation includes a study of cancer incidence in this cohort. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ultra-processed Food Intake and Obesity: What Really Matters for Health-Processing or Nutrient Content?

PubMed

Poti, Jennifer M; Braga, Bianca; Qin, Bo

2017-12-01

The aim of this narrative review was to summarize and critique recent evidence evaluating the association between ultra-processed food intake and obesity. Four of five studies found that higher purchases or consumption of ultra-processed food was associated with overweight/obesity. Additional studies reported relationships between ultra-processed food intake and higher fasting glucose, metabolic syndrome, increases in total and LDL cholesterol, and risk of hypertension. It remains unclear whether associations can be attributed to processing itself or the nutrient content of ultra-processed foods. Only three of nine studies used a prospective design, and the potential for residual confounding was high. Recent research provides fairly consistent support for the association of ultra-processed food intake with obesity and related cardiometabolic outcomes. There is a clear need for further studies, particularly those using longitudinal designs and with sufficient control for confounding, to potentially confirm these findings in different populations and to determine whether ultra-processed food consumption is associated with obesity independent of nutrient content.

Implantation and Recording of Wireless Electroretinogram and Visual Evoked Potential in Conscious Rats.

PubMed

Charng, Jason; He, Zheng; Bui, Bang; Vingrys, Algis; Ivarsson, Magnus; Fish, Rebecca; Gurrell, Rachel; Nguyen, Christine

2016-06-29

The full-field electroretinogram (ERG) and visual evoked potential (VEP) are useful tools to assess retinal and visual pathway integrity in both laboratory and clinical settings. Currently, preclinical ERG and VEP measurements are performed with anesthesia to ensure stable electrode placements. However, the very presence of anesthesia has been shown to contaminate normal physiological responses. To overcome these anesthesia confounds, we develop a novel platform to assay ERG and VEP in conscious rats. Electrodes are surgically implanted sub-conjunctivally on the eye to assay the ERG and epidurally over the visual cortex to measure the VEP. A range of amplitude and sensitivity/timing parameters are assayed for both the ERG and VEP at increasing luminous energies. The ERG and VEP signals are shown to be stable and repeatable for at least 4 weeks post surgical implantation. This ability to record ERG and VEP signals without anesthesia confounds in the preclinical setting should provide superior translation to clinical data.

Assessing the Independent Contribution of Maternal Educational Expectations to Children’s Educational Attainment in Early Adulthood: A Propensity Score Matching Analysis

PubMed Central

Pingault, Jean Baptiste; Côté, Sylvana M.; Petitclerc, Amélie; Vitaro, Frank; Tremblay, Richard E.

2015-01-01

Background Parental educational expectations have been associated with children’s educational attainment in a number of long-term longitudinal studies, but whether this relationship is causal has long been debated. The aims of this prospective study were twofold: 1) test whether low maternal educational expectations contributed to failure to graduate from high school; and 2) compare the results obtained using different strategies for accounting for confounding variables (i.e. multivariate regression and propensity score matching). Methodology/Principal Findings The study sample included 1,279 participants from the Quebec Longitudinal Study of Kindergarten Children. Maternal educational expectations were assessed when the participants were aged 12 years. High school graduation – measuring educational attainment – was determined through the Quebec Ministry of Education when the participants were aged 22–23 years. Findings show that when using the most common statistical approach (i.e. multivariate regressions to adjust for a restricted set of potential confounders) the contribution of low maternal educational expectations to failure to graduate from high school was statistically significant. However, when using propensity score matching, the contribution of maternal expectations was reduced and remained statistically significant only for males. Conclusions/Significance The results of this study are consistent with the possibility that the contribution of parental expectations to educational attainment is overestimated in the available literature. This may be explained by the use of a restricted range of potential confounding variables as well as the dearth of studies using appropriate statistical techniques and study designs in order to minimize confounding. Each of these techniques and designs, including propensity score matching, has its strengths and limitations: A more comprehensive understanding of the causal role of parental expectations will stem from a convergence of findings from studies using different techniques and designs. PMID:25803867

Oxidative stress in drug-naïve first episode patients with schizophrenia and major depression: effects of disease acuity and potential confounders.

PubMed

Jordan, Wolfgang; Dobrowolny, Henrik; Bahn, Sabine; Bernstein, Hans-Gert; Brigadski, Tanja; Frodl, Thomas; Isermann, Berend; Lessmann, Volkmar; Pilz, Jürgen; Rodenbeck, Andrea; Schiltz, Kolja; Schwedhelm, Edzard; Tumani, Hayrettin; Wiltfang, Jens; Guest, Paul C; Steiner, Johann

2018-03-01

Oxidative stress and immune dysregulation have been linked to schizophrenia and depression. However, it is unknown whether these factors are related to the pathophysiology or whether they are an epiphenomenon. Inconsistent oxidative stress-related findings in previous studies may have resulted from the use of different biomarkers which show disparate aspects of oxidative stress. Additionally, disease severity, medication, smoking, endocrine stress axis activation and obesity are potential confounders. In order to address some of these shortcomings, we have analyzed a broader set of oxidative stress biomarkers in our exploratory study, including urinary 8-iso-prostaglandin F2α (8-iso-PGF2α), 8-OH-2-deoyxguanosine (8-OH-2-dG), and blood levels of malondialdehyde (MDA), superoxide dismutase (SOD) and glutathione S-transferase (GST) in acutely ill drug-naïve first episode patients with schizophrenia (n = 22), major depression (n = 18), and controls (n = 43). Possible confounding factors were considered, and patients were followed-up after 6 weeks of treatment. No differences were observed regarding 8-OH-2-dG, MDA and GST. At baseline, 8-iso-PGF2α levels were higher in patients with schizophrenia (p = 0.004) and major depression (p = 0.037), with a trend toward higher SOD concentrations in schizophrenia (p = 0.053). After treatment, schizophrenia patients showed a further increase in 8-iso-PGF2α (p = 0.016). These results were not related to age, sex, disease severity, medication or adipose tissue mass. However, 8-iso-PGF2α was associated with smoking, endocrine stress axis activation, C-reactive protein levels and low plasma concentrations of brain-derived neurotrophic factor. This study suggests a role of lipid peroxidation particularly in drug-naïve acutely ill schizophrenia patients and highlights the importance of taking into account other confounding factors in biomarker studies.

Hypothyroidism and carpal tunnel syndrome: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Shiri, Rahman

2014-12-01

This study aimed to assess the magnitude of the association between hypothyroidism and carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS). Eighteen studies were included in a random-effects meta-analysis. A meta-analysis of the studies that did not control their estimates for any confounder showed an association between a thyroid disease (hypo- or hyperthyroidism) and CTS (N = 9,573, effect size [ES] = 1.32 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.04-1.68) and between hypothyroidism and CTS (N = 64,531, ES = 2.15 [95% CI, 1.64-2.83]). When a meta-analysis limited to the studies that controlled their estimates for some potential confounders, the association between a thyroid disease and CTS disappeared (N = 4,799, ES = 1.17 [95% CI, 0.71-1.92], I(2) = 0%), and the effect size for hypothyroidism largely attenuated (N = 71,133, ES = 1.44 [95% CI, 1.27-1.63], I(2) = 0%). Moreover, there was evidence of publication bias. This meta-analysis found only a modest association between hypothyroidism and CTS. Confounding and publication bias may still account for part of the remaining excess risk. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Does the frequency of anxiety and depressive disorders differ between diagnostic subtypes of anorexia nervosa and bulimia?

PubMed

Godart, Nathalie; Berthoz, Sylvie; Rein, Zoé; Perdereau, Fabienne; Lang, François; Venisse, Jean-Luc; Halfon, Olivier; Bizouard, Pierre; Loas, Gwénolé; Corcos, Maurice; Jeammet, Philippe; Flament, Martine; Curt, Florence

2006-12-01

The objective of the present work is to determine whether the prevalence of depressive and anxiety disorders varies in subgroups of eating disorders (ED) according to age, ED duration, mode of care provision, and body mass index (BMI). Using the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview (MINI), the frequency of anxiety and depressive disorders was evaluated in 271 ED participants. Their prevalence was compared in subgroups of anorexics (AN-R and AN-BN) and bulimics (BN), both before and after controlling for potential confounding variables. Current or lifetime comorbidity of anxiety and depressive disorders did not differ between AN-R and AN-BN groups. Social phobia, panic disorders, and obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) were significantly more frequent in AN-BN and AN-R groups. Panic disorder was more frequent in the BN group. Several confounding factors, in particular those identified in the present study, may explain previous conflicting results on the frequency of anxiety and depressive disorders in ED. Nevertheless, the study confirmed that OCD is more frequent in AN, even after controlling for confounding factors. Copyright 2006 by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Propensity Score-Based Methods versus MTE-Based Methods in Causal Inference: Identification, Estimation, and Application

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhou, Xiang; Xie, Yu

2016-01-01

Since the seminal introduction of the propensity score (PS) by Rosenbaum and Rubin, PS-based methods have been widely used for drawing causal inferences in the behavioral and social sciences. However, the PS approach depends on the ignorability assumption: there are no unobserved confounders once observed covariates are taken into account. For…

Drug-Induced Acute Myocardial Infarction: Identifying ‘Prime Suspects’ from Electronic Healthcare Records-Based Surveillance System

PubMed Central

Coloma, Preciosa M.; Schuemie, Martijn J.; Trifirò, Gianluca; Furlong, Laura; van Mulligen, Erik; Bauer-Mehren, Anna; Avillach, Paul; Kors, Jan; Sanz, Ferran; Mestres, Jordi; Oliveira, José Luis; Boyer, Scott; Helgee, Ernst Ahlberg; Molokhia, Mariam; Matthews, Justin; Prieto-Merino, David; Gini, Rosa; Herings, Ron; Mazzaglia, Giampiero; Picelli, Gino; Scotti, Lorenza; Pedersen, Lars; van der Lei, Johan; Sturkenboom, Miriam

2013-01-01

Background Drug-related adverse events remain an important cause of morbidity and mortality and impose huge burden on healthcare costs. Routinely collected electronic healthcare data give a good snapshot of how drugs are being used in ‘real-world’ settings. Objective To describe a strategy that identifies potentially drug-induced acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from a large international healthcare data network. Methods Post-marketing safety surveillance was conducted in seven population-based healthcare databases in three countries (Denmark, Italy, and the Netherlands) using anonymised demographic, clinical, and prescription/dispensing data representing 21,171,291 individuals with 154,474,063 person-years of follow-up in the period 1996–2010. Primary care physicians’ medical records and administrative claims containing reimbursements for filled prescriptions, laboratory tests, and hospitalisations were evaluated using a three-tier triage system of detection, filtering, and substantiation that generated a list of drugs potentially associated with AMI. Outcome of interest was statistically significant increased risk of AMI during drug exposure that has not been previously described in current literature and is biologically plausible. Results Overall, 163 drugs were identified to be associated with increased risk of AMI during preliminary screening. Of these, 124 drugs were eliminated after adjustment for possible bias and confounding. With subsequent application of criteria for novelty and biological plausibility, association with AMI remained for nine drugs (‘prime suspects’): azithromycin; erythromycin; roxithromycin; metoclopramide; cisapride; domperidone; betamethasone; fluconazole; and megestrol acetate. Limitations Although global health status, co-morbidities, and time-invariant factors were adjusted for, residual confounding cannot be ruled out. Conclusion A strategy to identify potentially drug-induced AMI from electronic healthcare data has been proposed that takes into account not only statistical association, but also public health relevance, novelty, and biological plausibility. Although this strategy needs to be further evaluated using other healthcare data sources, the list of ‘prime suspects’ makes a good starting point for further clinical, laboratory, and epidemiologic investigation. PMID:24015213

Does influenza vaccination improve pregnancy outcome? Methodological issues and research needs.

PubMed

Savitz, David A; Fell, Deshayne B; Ortiz, Justin R; Bhat, Niranjan

2015-11-25

Evidence that influenza vaccination during pregnancy is safe and effective at preventing influenza disease in women and their children through the first months of life is increasing. Several reports of reduced risk of adverse outcomes associated with influenza vaccination have generated interest in its potential for improving pregnancy outcome. Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, estimates maternal influenza immunization programs in low-income countries would have a relatively modest impact on mortality compared to other new or under-utilized vaccines, however the impact would be substantially greater if reported vaccine effects on improved pregnancy outcomes were accurate. Here, we examine the available evidence and methodological issues bearing on the relationship between influenza vaccination and pregnancy outcome, particularly preterm birth and fetal growth restriction, and summarize research needs. Evidence for absence of harm associated with vaccination at a point in time is not symmetric with evidence of benefit, given the scenario in which vaccination reduces risk of influenza disease and, in turn, risk of adverse pregnancy outcome. The empirical evidence for vaccination preventing influenza in pregnant women is strong, but the evidence that influenza itself causes adverse pregnancy outcomes is inconsistent and limited in quality. Studies of vaccination and pregnancy outcome have produced mixed evidence of potential benefit but are limited in terms of influenza disease assessment and control of confounding, and their analytic methods often fail to fully address the longitudinal nature of pregnancy and influenza prevalence. We recommend making full use of results of randomized trials, re-analysis of existing observational studies to account for confounding and time-related factors, and quantitative assessment of the potential benefits of vaccination in improving pregnancy outcome, all of which should be informed by the collective engagement of experts in influenza, vaccines, and perinatal health. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

CADDIS Volume 4. Data Analysis: Basic Principles & Issues

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Use of inferential statistics in causal analysis, introduction to data independence and autocorrelation, methods to identifying and control for confounding variables, references for the Basic Principles section of Data Analysis.

Perceptions of Socratic and non-Socratic presentation of information in cognitive behaviour therapy.

PubMed

Heiniger, Louise E; Clark, Gavin I; Egan, Sarah J

2018-03-01

Socratic Method is a style of inquiry used in cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) that encourages clients to reflect on their problems and draw conclusions from newly-gained insights. However, assumptions about the superior efficacy of Socratic Method over non-Socratic (didactic) approaches remain largely untested. The aim of this study was to compare the perceived helpfulness of therapists' questions, autonomy supportiveness, likelihood of engaging in therapeutic tasks and preference for Socratic Method versus a didactic approach using a video analogue and ratings of lay observers. The mediating effects of therapeutic alliance and empathy were also examined. Participants (N = 144, mean age = 37, SD = 13) completed an online survey where they rated two videoed therapy analogues. Socratic Method had higher mean scores on perceived helpfulness of therapists' questions, autonomy supportiveness, and likelihood of engaging in therapeutic tasks and preference than didactic presentation. Perceived helpfulness and preference ratings were higher for Socratic Method after accounting for potential confounders. Perceived therapeutic alliance and empathy both mediated the effect of therapy condition on autonomy and engagement. The findings support the use of Socratic Method in CBT. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mothers' spanking of 3-year-old children and subsequent risk of children's aggressive behavior.

PubMed

Taylor, Catherine A; Manganello, Jennifer A; Lee, Shawna J; Rice, Janet C

2010-05-01

The goal was to examine the association between the use of corporal punishment (CP) against 3-year-old children and subsequent aggressive behavior among those children. Respondents (N = 2461) participated in the Fragile Families and Child Well-being Study (1998-2005), a population-based, birth cohort study of children born in 20 large US cities. Maternal reports of CP, children's aggressive behaviors at 3 and 5 years of age, and a host of key demographic features and potential confounding factors, including maternal child physical maltreatment, psychological maltreatment, and neglect, intimate partner aggression victimization, stress, depression, substance use, and consideration of abortion, were assessed. Frequent use of CP (ie, mother's use of spanking more than twice in the previous month) when the child was 3 years of age was associated with increased risk for higher levels of child aggression when the child was 5 years of age (adjusted odds ratio: 1.49 [95% confidence interval: 1.2-1.8]; P < .0001), even with controlling for the child's level of aggression at age 3 and the aforementioned potential confounding factors and key demographic features. Despite American Academy of Pediatrics recommendations to the contrary, most parents in the United States approve of and have used CP as a form of child discipline. The current findings suggest that even minor forms of CP, such as spanking, increase risk for increased child aggressive behavior. Importantly, these findings cannot be attributed to possible confounding effects of a host of other maternal parenting risk factors.

The impact of HIV status, HIV disease progression, and post-traumatic stress symptoms on the health-related quality of life of Rwandan women genocide survivors.

PubMed

Gard, Tracy L; Hoover, Donald R; Shi, Qiuhu; Cohen, Mardge H; Mutimura, Eugene; Adedimeji, Adebola A; Anastos, Kathryn

2013-10-01

We examined whether established associations between HIV disease and HIV disease progression on worse health-related quality of life (HQOL) were applicable to women with severe trauma histories, in this case Rwandan women genocide survivors, the majority of whom were HIV-infected. Additionally, this study attempted to clarify whether post-traumatic stress symptoms were uniquely associated with HQOL or confounded with depression. The Rwandan Women's Interassociation Study and Assessment was a longitudinal prospective study of HIV-infected and uninfected women. At study entry, 922 women (705 HIV+ and 217 HIV-) completed measures of symptoms of post-traumatic stress and HQOL as well as other demographic, clinical, and behavioral characteristics. Even after controlling for potential confounders and mediators, HIV+ women, in particular those with the lowest CD4 counts, scored significantly worse on HQOL and overall quality of life (QOL) than did HIV- women. Even after controlling for depression and HIV disease progression, women with more post-traumatic stress symptoms scored worse on HQOL and overall QOL than women with fewer post-traumatic stress symptoms. This study demonstrated that post-traumatic stress symptoms were independently associated with HQOL and overall QOL, independent of depression and other confounders or potential mediators. Future research should examine whether the long-term impact of treatment on physical and psychological symptoms of HIV and post-traumatic stress symptoms would generate improvement in HQOL.

Chronic hypertension in pregnancy and the risk of congenital malformations: a cohort study.

PubMed

Bateman, Brian T; Huybrechts, Krista F; Fischer, Michael A; Seely, Ellen W; Ecker, Jeffrey L; Oberg, Anna S; Franklin, Jessica M; Mogun, Helen; Hernandez-Diaz, Sonia

2015-03-01

Chronic hypertension is a common medical condition in pregnancy. The purpose of the study was to examine the association between maternal chronic hypertension and the risk of congenital malformations in the offspring. We defined a cohort of 878,126 completed pregnancies linked to infant medical records using the Medicaid Analytic Extract. The risk of congenital malformations was compared between normotensive controls and those with treated and untreated chronic hypertension. Confounding was addressed using propensity score matching. After matching, compared with normotensive controls, pregnancies complicated by treated chronic hypertension were at increased risk of congenital malformations (odds ratio [OR], 1.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-1.5), as were pregnancies with untreated chronic hypertension (OR 1.2; 95% CI, 1.1-1.3). In our analysis of organ-specific malformations, both treated and untreated chronic hypertension was associated with a significant increase in the risk of cardiac malformations (OR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.4-1.9 and OR, 1.5; 95% CI, 1.3-1.7, respectively). These associations persisted across a range of sensitivity analyses. There is a similar increase in the risk of congenital malformations (particularly cardiac malformations) associated with treated and untreated chronic hypertension that is independent of measured confounders. Studies evaluating the teratogenic potential of antihypertensive medications must control for confounding by indication. Fetuses and neonates of mothers with chronic hypertension should be carefully evaluated for potential malformations, particularly cardiac defects. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Leiomyomas in Pregnancy and Spontaneous Abortion: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Sundermann, Alexandra C; Velez Edwards, Digna R; Bray, Michael J; Jones, Sarah H; Latham, Sanura M; Hartmann, Katherine E

2017-11-01

To systematically review studies reporting the risk of spontaneous abortion among pregnant women of typical reproductive potential with and without uterine leiomyomas. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and ClinicalTrials.gov for publications from January 1970 to December 2016. We excluded studies that did not use imaging to uniformly document leiomyoma status of all participants, did not have a comparison group without leiomyomas, or primarily included women seeking care for recurrent miscarriage, infertility care, or assisted reproductive technologies. Two authors independently reviewed eligibility, extracted data, and assigned overall quality ratings based on predetermined criteria. Of 1,469 articles identified, nine were eligible. Five enrolled general obstetric populations and four included women undergoing amniocentesis. In five studies in general obstetric populations that included 21,829 pregnancies (1,394 women with leiomyomas and 20,435 without), only one adjusted for potential confounders. This meta-analysis revealed no increase in risk of spontaneous abortion among those with leiomyomas compared with those without (11.5% compared with 8.0%; risk ratio 1.16, 95% CI 0.80-1.52). When bias from confounding was estimated for nonadjusted studies, the aggregate calculated risk ratio was 0.83 (95% CI 0.68-0.98). Leiomyoma presence was not associated with increased risk of spontaneous abortion in an analysis of more than 20,000 pregnant women. Failure of prior studies to adjust for confounders may have led to the common clinical belief that leiomyomas are a risk factor for spontaneous abortion.

Risk factors for recurrent gastroesophageal reflux disease after fundoplication in pediatric patients: a case-control study.

PubMed

Ngerncham, Monawat; Barnhart, Douglas C; Haricharan, Ramanath N; Roseman, Jeffrey M; Georgeson, Keith E; Harmon, Carroll M

2007-09-01

Recurrent gastroesophageal reflux disease (rGERD) is a common problem after fundoplication. Previous studies attempting to identify risk factors for rGERD have failed to control for confounding variables. The purpose of this study was to identify significant risk factors for rGERD after controlling for potential confounding variables. A retrospective, matched case-control study was conducted at a tertiary children's hospital. Cases (n = 116) met 1 of these criteria: reoperation for rGERD, symptomatic rGERD (confirmed by upper gastrointestinal series, esophagogastroduodenoscopy, or pH monitoring), or postoperative reinstitution of antireflux medication for more than 8 weeks. Controls (n = 209) were matched for surgeon, approach (laparoscopic/open), technique (partial/complete), and approximate operative date. Univariate and multivariable associations were analyzed by conditional logistic regression. Significant risk factors for rGERD were age of less than 6 years (odds ratio [OR], 3.6; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.7-7.5), preoperative hiatal hernia (OR, 3.2; 95% CI, 1.4-7.3), postoperative retching (OR, 5.1; 95% CI, 2.6-10.0), and postoperative esophageal dilatation (OR, 10.8; 95% CI, 1.8-65.4). Interestingly, significant association was not found between neurologic impairment and rGERD after controlling for potential confounding variables. Age of less than 6 years, preoperative hiatal hernia, postoperative retching, and postoperative esophageal dilatation are independently associated with increased risk of rGERD. Neurologic impairment alone does not increase the risk of developing rGERD.

Youth unemployment and functional somatic symptoms in adulthood: results from the Northern Swedish cohort.

PubMed

Brydsten, Anna; Hammarström, Anne; Strandh, Mattias; Johansson, Klara

2015-10-01

Little is known about the possible long-term health consequences of youth unemployment. Research indicates that unemployment may lead to socioeconomic downward mobility and mental health problems, but we still lack knowledge of the long-term health consequences of youth unemployment. This article examines the potential long-term association between youth unemployment and functional somatic symptoms in adulthood. The 'Northern Swedish cohort' was used with data from five data collections, from 1981 (age 16) until 2007 (age 42). Youth unemployment was measured as months in unemployment between age 16 and 21, and health outcome as functional somatic symptoms (an index of 10 items of self-reported symptoms). Linear regression was used to analyse the relationship between months in youth unemployment and functional somatic symptoms at age 21 and age 42, stratified for women and men and adjusted for potential confounders, such as time spent in education at age 21 and later unemployment between age 21 and 42. Youth unemployment was significantly related to functional somatic symptoms at age 21 for men after controlling for confounders, but not for women. Among men, the association remained for functional somatic symptoms at age 42, after controlling for confounders. Adolescence seems to be a sensitive period during which unemployment could have remaining health effects in adulthood, at least for men, though assumptions of causality are tentative and more research is needed. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Physical work load and psychological stress of daily activities as predictors of disability pension due to musculoskeletal disorders.

PubMed

Ropponen, Annina; Svedberg, Pia; Koskenvuo, Markku; Silventoinen, Karri; Kaprio, Jaakko

2014-06-01

Physical work loading and psychological stress commonly co-occur in working life, hence potentially having an interrelationship that may affect work incapacity. This prospective cohort study aimed to investigate the effect of stability and change in physical work loading and stress on the risk of disability pension (DP) due to musculoskeletal diagnoses (MSD), while accounting for familial confounding in these associations. Data on 12,455 twins born before 1958 were surveyed of their physical work loading and psychological stress of daily activities in 1975 and 1981. The follow-up data was collected from pension registers until 2004. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used. During the follow up, 893 participants were granted DP due to MSD. Stable high (hazard ratio, HR, 2.21), but also increased physical work loading (HR 2.05) and high psychological stress (HR 2.22) were associated with increased risk for DP, and had significant interaction (p=0.032). The associations were confirmed when accounting for several confounding factors. Stable high but also increased physical work loading and psychological stress of daily activities between two timepoints with 6 years apart confirms their predictive role for an increased risk of DP. Both physical work loading and psychological stress seem to be independent from various confounding factors hence suggesting direct effect on risk for DP providing potential for occupational health care to early identification of persons at risk. © 2014 the Nordic Societies of Public Health.

Periodontal diseases and risk of oral cancer in Southern India: Results from the HeNCe Life study.

PubMed

Laprise, Claudie; Shahul, Hameed Puthiyannal; Madathil, Sreenath Arekunnath; Thekkepurakkal, Akhil Soman; Castonguay, Geneviève; Varghese, Ipe; Shiraz, Shameena; Allison, Paul; Schlecht, Nicolas F; Rousseau, Marie-Claude; Franco, Eduardo L; Nicolau, Belinda

2016-10-01

Some studies suggest that periodontal diseases increase the risk of oral cancer, but contradictory results also exist. Inadequate control of confounders, including life course exposures, may have influenced prior findings. We estimate the extent to which high levels of periodontal diseases, measured by gingival inflammation and recession, are associated with oral cancer risk using a comprehensive subset of potential confounders and applying a stringent adjustment approach. In a hospital-based case-control study, incident oral cancer cases (N = 350) were recruited from two major referral hospitals in Kerala, South India, from 2008 to 2012. Controls (N = 371), frequency-matched by age and sex, were recruited from clinics at the same hospitals. Structured interviews collected information on several domains of exposure via a detailed life course questionnaire. Periodontal diseases, as measured by gingival inflammation and gingival recession, were evaluated visually by qualified dentists following a detailed protocol. The relationship between periodontal diseases and oral cancer risk was assessed by unconditional logistic regression using a stringent empirical selection of potential confounders corresponding to a 1% change-in-estimates. Generalized gingival recession was significantly associated with oral cancer risk (Odds Ratio = 1.83, 95% Confidence Interval: 1.10-3.04). No significant association was observed between gingival inflammation and oral cancer. Our findings support the hypothesis that high levels of periodontal diseases increase the risk of oral cancer. © 2016 UICC.

Formaldehyde Exposure and Lower Respiratory Infections in Infants: Findings from the PARIS Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Roda, Célina; Kousignian, Isabelle; Guihenneuc-Jouyaux, Chantal; Dassonville, Claire; Nicolis, Ioannis; Just, Jocelyne

2011-01-01

Background: Certain chemical pollutants can exacerbate lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs), a common childhood ailment. Although formaldehyde (FA) is one of the most common air pollutants found in indoor environments, its impact on infant health is uncertain. Objective: Our aim was to determine the impact of FA exposure on the LRI incidence during the first year of life of infants from the Pollution and Asthma Risk: an Infant Study (PARIS) birth cohort. Methods: FA was measured in a random sample of 196 infants’ dwellings, and exposure to this pollutant was estimated for 2,940 infants using predictive models based on measurements and data about potential determinants of FA levels. Health data were collected from parents by regular self-administered questionnaires. We used multivariate logistic regressions to estimate associations between FA exposure and the occurrence of LRI and wheezy LRI (wLRI), adjusting for potential confounders/risk factors. Results: During the first year of life, 45.8% of infants had at least one LRI, and LRI occurred simultaneously with wheezing in 48.7% of cases. The FA predictive models correctly classified 70% of dwellings as having high or low exposure, and we estimated that 43.3% of infants were exposed throughout the first year to levels of FA > 19.5 µg/m3. FA exposure was significantly associated with LRI and wLRI before and after adjustment for known LRI risk factors/confounders. For an interquartile increase in FA levels (12.4 μg/m3), we estimated a 32% [95% confidence interval (CI): 11, 55] and 41% (95% CI: 14, 74) increase in the incidence of LRI and wLRI, respectively. Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest that infants exposed to FA at an early age have an increased incidence of LRI. PMID:21810553

The effect of time on CPR and automated external defibrillator skills in the Public Access Defibrillation Trial

PubMed Central

Christenson, Jim; Nafziger, Sarah; Compton, Scott; Vijayaraghavan, Kris; Slater, Brian; Ledingham, Robert; Powell, Judy; McBurnie, Mary Ann

2009-01-01

Background The time to skill deterioration between primary training/retraining and further retraining in Cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) and automated external defibrillation (AED) for lay-persons is unclear. The Public Access Defibrillation (PAD) Trial was a multi-center randomized controlled trial evaluating survival after CPR-only vs. CPR+AED delivered by onsite non-medical volunteer responders in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Aims This sub-study evaluated the relationship of time between primary training/retraining and further retraining on volunteer performance during pretest AED and CPR skill evaluation. Methods Volunteers at 1260 facilities in 24 North American regions underwent training/retraining according to facility randomization, which included an initial session and a refresher session at approximately 6 months. Before the next retraining, a CPR and AED skill test was completed for 2729 volunteers. Primary outcome for the study was assessment of global competence of CPR or AED performance (adequate vs not adequate) using Chi-square tests for trends by time interval (3, 6, 9, and 12 months). Confirmatory (GEE) logistic regression analysis, adjusted for site and potential confounders. Results The proportion of volunteers judged to be competent did not diminish by interval (3,6,9,12 months) for either CPR or AED skills. After adjusting for site and potential confounders, longer intervals before to further retraining was associated with a slightly lower likelihood of performing adequate CPR but not with AED scores. Conclusions After primary training/retraining, the CPR skills of targeted lay responders deteriorate nominally but 80% remain competent up to one year. AED skills do not significantly deteriorate and 90% of volunteers remain competent up to one year. PMID:17303309

Witness of Intimate Partner Violence in Childhood and Perpetration of Intimate Partner Violence in Adulthood

PubMed Central

Roberts, Andrea L.; Gilman, Stephen E.; Fitzmaurice, Garrett; Decker, Michele R.; Koenen, Karestan C.

2011-01-01

Background At least half a million women are victims of intimate partner violence in the United States annually, resulting in substantial harm. However, the etiology of violence to intimate partners is not well understood. Witnessing such violence in childhood has been proposed as a principal cause of adulthood perpetration, yet it remains unknown whether the association between witnessing intimate partner violence and adulthood perpetration is causal. Method We conducted a propensity-score analysis of intimate partner violence perpetration to determine whether childhood witnessing is associated with perpetration in adulthood, independent of a wide range of potential confounding variables, and therefore might be a causal factor. We used data from 14,564 U.S. men ages 20 and older from the 2004–2005 wave of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions. Results Nearly 4% of men reported violent behavior toward an intimate partner in the past year. In unadjusted models, we found a strong association between childhood witnessing of intimate partner violence and adulthood perpetration (for witnessing any intimate partner violence, risk ratio [RR] = 2.6 [95% confidence interval = 2.1–3.2]; for witnessing frequent or serious violence, 3.0 [2.3–3.9]). In propensity-score models, the association was substantially attenuated (for witnessing any intimate partner violence, adjusted RR = 1.6 [1.2–2.0]; for witnessing frequent or serious violence, 1.6 [1.2–2.3]). Conclusions Men who witness intimate partner violence in childhood are more likely to commit such acts in adulthood, compared with men who are otherwise similar with respect to a large range of potential confounders. Etiological models of intimate partner violence perpetration should consider a constellation of childhood factors. PMID:20811285

Nut consumption and 5-y all-cause mortality in a Mediterranean cohort: the SUN project.

PubMed

Fernández-Montero, A; Bes-Rastrollo, M; Barrio-López, M T; Fuente-Arrillaga, C de la; Salas-Salvadó, J; Moreno-Galarraga, L; Martínez-González, M A

2014-09-01

The aim of this study was to assess the association between nut consumption and all-cause mortality after 5-y follow-up in a Spanish cohort. The SUN (Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra, University of Navarra Follow-up) project is a prospective cohort study, formed by Spanish university graduates. Information is gathered by mailed questionnaires collected biennially. In all, 17 184 participants were followed for up to 5 y. Baseline nut consumption was collected by self-reported data, using a validated 136-item semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Information on mortality was collected by permanent contact with the SUN participants and their families, postal authorities, and the National Death Index. The association between baseline nut consumption and all-cause mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards models to adjust for potential confounding. Baseline nut consumption was categorized in two ways. In a first analysis energy-adjusted quintiles of nut consumption (measured in g/d) were used. To adjust for total energy intake the residuals method was used. In a second analysis, participants were categorized into four groups according to pre-established categories of nut consumption (servings/d or servings/wk). Both analyses were adjusted for potential confounding factors. Participants who consumed nuts ≥2/wk had a 56% lower risk for all-cause mortality than those who never or almost never consumed nuts (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.44; 95% confidence intervals, 0.23-0.86). Nut consumption was significantly associated with a reduced risk for all-cause mortality after the first 5 y of follow-up in the SUN project. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Air Pollution Affects Lung Cancer Survival

PubMed Central

Eckel, Sandrah P; Cockburn, Myles; Shu, Yu-Hsiang; Deng, Huiyu; Lurmann, Frederick W.; Liu, Lihua; Gilliland, Frank D

2017-01-01

Rationale Exposure to ambient air pollutants has been associated with increased lung cancer incidence and mortality but, due to the high case fatality rate, little is known about the impacts of air pollution exposures on survival after diagnosis. This study aimed to determine whether ambient air pollutant exposures are associated with lung cancer patient survival. Methods Participants were 352,053 patients with newly diagnosed lung cancer during 1988–2009 in California, ascertained by the California Cancer Registry. Average residential ambient air pollutant concentrations were estimated for each participant’s follow-up period. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) relating air pollutant exposures to all-cause mortality overall and stratified by stage (localized only, regional, and distant site) and histology (squamous cell carcinoma, adenocarcinoma, small cell carcinoma, large cell carcinoma, and others) at diagnosis, adjusting for potential individual and area-level confounders. Results Adjusting for histology and other potential confounders, the HR associated with 1 standard deviation increases in NO2, O3, PM10, PM2.5 for patients with localized stage at diagnosis were 1.30 (95% CI: 1.28–1.32), 1.04 (95% CI: 1.02–1.05), 1.26 (95% CI: 1.25–1.28), and 1.38 (95% CI: 1.35–1.41), respectively. Adjusted HR were smaller in later stages, and varied by histological type within stage (p < 0.01, except O3). The largest associations were for patients with early stage non-small cell cancers, particularly adenocarcinomas. Conclusions These epidemiological findings support the hypothesis that air pollution exposures after lung cancer diagnosis shorten survival. Future studies should evaluate the impacts of exposure reduction. PMID:27491839

Anemia of inflammation is related to cognitive impairment among children in Leyte, the Philippines.

PubMed

Olson, Courtney L; Acosta, Luz P; Hochberg, Natasha S; Olveda, Remigio M; Jiz, Mario; McGarvey, Stephen T; Kurtis, Jonathan D; Bellinger, David C; Friedman, Jennifer F

2009-10-20

Many studies have addressed the relationship between iron deficiency anemia (IDA) and cognitive impairment, but none have evaluated the role of non-iron deficiency anemia (NIDA). One of the main causes of NIDA in developing countries is AI, largely due to infectious diseases, whereby iron is shunted away from bio-available forms to storage forms, making it less accessible for use by host tissues. The objective of this study was to determine the effect of NIDA, due largely to AI in this context, on cognitive function after adjustment for potential confounders. This cross-sectional study was conducted in Leyte, The Philippines among 322 children ages 7-18 years. Blood samples were collected and analyzed at the time of cognition testing. Three stool samples were collected and evaluated by the Kato Katz method for quantitative assessment for Schistosoma japonicum and geo-helminth infection. Socio-economic status (SES) was evaluated by survey. Linear regression models were used to quantify the adjusted relationship between performance in different cognitive domains and both IDA and NIDA. After adjusting for age, sex, SES and nutritional status, children in the NIDA had lower scores on the PNIT (P = <0.05) and the WRAML memory domain (P<0.05) compared to children in the non-anemic group. Children in the IDA had lower performance on the PNIT compared to the non-anemic group after controlling for potential confounders (P<0.05). NIDA, predominantly due to AI in this context, was related to lower performance on two tests of cognitive function. This is likely due to decreased delivery of iron to host tissues in this context, including the CNS.

Extravasation Risk Using Ultrasound Guided Peripheral Intravenous Catheters for Computed Tomography Contrast Administration

PubMed Central

Rupp, Jordan D.; Ferre, Robinson M.; Boyd, Jeremy S.; Dearing, Elizabeth; McNaughton, Candace D.; Liu, Dandan; Jarrell, Kelli L.; McWade, Conor M.; Self, Wesley H.

2016-01-01

Objective Ultrasound guided intravenous catheter (USGIV) insertion is increasingly being used for administration of intravenous contrast for computed tomography (CT) scans. The goal of this investigation was to evaluate the risk of contrast extravasation among patients receiving contrast through USGIV catheters. Methods A retrospective observational study of adult patients who underwent a contrast-enhanced CT scan at a tertiary-care emergency department during a recent 64-month period was conducted. The unadjusted prevalence of contrast extravasation was compared between patients with an USGIV and those with a standard peripheral IV inserted without ultrasound. Then, a two-stage sampling design was used to select a subset of the population for a multivariable logistic regression model evaluating USGIVs as a risk factor for extravasation while adjusting for potential confounders. Results In total, 40,143 patients underwent a contrasted CT scan, including 364 (0.9%) who had contrast administered through an USGIV. Unadjusted prevalence of extravasation was 3.6% for contrast administration through USGIVs and 0.3% for standard IVs (relative risk: 13.9, 95% CI: 7.7 to 24.6). After adjustment for potential confounders, CT contrast administered through USGIVs was associated with extravasation (adjusted odds ratio: 8.6; 95% CI: 4.6, 16.2). No patients required surgical management for contrast extravasation; one patient in the standard IV group was admitted for observation due to extravasation. Conclusions Patients who received contrast for a CT scan through an USGIV had a higher risk of extravasation than those who received contrast through a standard peripheral IV. Clinicians should consider this extravasation risk when weighing the risks and benefits of a contrast-enhanced CT scan in a patient with USGIV vascular access. PMID:27151898

Severity and duration of diabetic foot ulcer (DFU) before seeking care as predictors of healing time: A retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Iversen, Marjolein M.; Igland, Jannicke; Østbye, Truls; Graue, Marit; Skeie, Svein; Wu, Bei; Rokne, Berit

2017-01-01

Objectives To investigate whether A) duration of ulcer before start of treatment in specialist health care, and B) severity of ulcer according to University of Texas classification system (UT) at start of treatment (baseline), are independent predictors of healing time. Methods This retrospective cohort study, based on electronic medical record data, included 105 patients from two outpatient clinics in Western Norway with a new diabetic foot ulcer during 2009–2011. The associations of duration of ulcer and ulcer severity with healing time were assessed using cumulative incidence curves and subdistribution hazard ratio estimated using competing risk regression with adjustment for potential confounders. Results Of the 105 participants, 45.7% achieved ulcer healing, 36.2% underwent amputations, 9.5% died before ulcer healing and 8.5% were lost to follow-up. Patients who were referred to specialist health care by a general practitioner ≥ 52 days after ulcer onset had a 58% (SHR 0.42, CI 0.18–0.98) decreased healing rate compared to patients who were referred earlier, in the adjusted model. High severity (grade 2/3, stage C/D) according to the UT classification system was associated with a decreased healing rate compared to low severity (grade1, stage A/B or grade 2, stage A) with SHR (95% CI) equal to 0.14 (0.05–0.43) after adjustment for referral time and other potential confounders. Conclusion Early detection and referral by both the patient and general practitioner are crucial for optimal foot ulcer healing. Ulcer grade and severity are also important predictors for healing time, and early screening to assess the severity and initiation of prompt treatment is important. PMID:28498862

The Association of Albuminuria With Tubular Reabsorption of Uric Acid: Results From a General Population Cohort

PubMed Central

Scheven, Lieneke; Joosten, Michel M.; de Jong, Paul E.; Bakker, Stephan J. L.; Gansevoort, Ron T.

2014-01-01

Background Elevated albuminuria as well as an increased serum uric acid concentration is associated with poor cardiovascular outcome. We questioned whether these 2 variables (albuminuria and serum uric concentration) may be interrelated via tubular uric acid reabsorption. Methods and Results Included were 7688 participants of the PREVEND Study, an observational, general population‐based cohort study. Linear regression analyses were used to test associations of baseline albuminuria with baseline serum uric acid concentration and tubular uric acid reabsorption (calculated as [100−fractional uric acid excretion]%). Cox regression analyses were used to study the association of baseline serum uric acid and albuminuria with incident cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. In cross‐sectional analyses, albuminuria was associated positively with serum uric acid concentration, both crude and after adjustment for potential confounders (both P<0.001). Albuminuria was found to be associated positively with tubular uric acid reabsorption, again both crude and after adjustment for potential confounders (both P<0.001). In longitudinal analyses during a median follow‐up of 10.5 years, 702 cardiovascular events occurred. After adjusting for cardiovascular risk factors, both albuminuria and serum uric acid were associated with incident cardiovascular events (Hazard Ratios 1.09 [1.03 to 1.17], P=0.01 and 1.19 [1.09 to 1.30], P<0.001, respectively). A significant interaction between these variables was present (P<0.001), consistent with high serum uric acid being less predictive for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the presence of high albuminuria and vice versa. Conclusions Albuminuria is strongly associated with tubular uric acid reabsorption, and consequently with serum uric acid concentration. This phenomenon may explain in part why albuminuria is associated with cardiovascular outcome. PMID:24772520

Effect of Exposure to Air Pollution on Placental Weight in Isfahan-Iran.

PubMed

Ghasemi-Tehrani, Hatav; Fallah, Setare; Mozafarian, Nafiseh; Miranzadeh, Sareh; Sadeghi, Shokooh; Azidhak, Azam

2017-06-01

Objective: To determine the effect of Air Quality Index (AQI) in the first trimester of pregnancy on birth weight, placental weight, and the ratio of placental weight to the birth weight (pw-bw) in Isfahan. Materials and methods: This cross-sectional study was done on 312 consecutive pregnant women in Beheshti Hospital in Isfahan city in 2013. Information on air pollution was received from the Environmental department of Isfahan. Average exposure to air pollution in the first trimester of pregnancy was calculated for eachpregnant woman. In order to compare quantitative and qualitative variables, analysis of variance (ANOVA), and chi-square were applied. After that, the multiple linear regression analysis was used to assess the association the Air Quality Index (AQI) on birth weight, placental weight and the ratio of pw-bw. Potential confounders including age, baby gender, smoking of husband, maternal BMI, maternal occupation, and education and mother's residential area were considered. A statistical significant association were considered for P-value less than 0.05. Results: The findings showed that there is inverse relationship between exposure to air pollution and placental weight in the first trimester of pregnancy after controlling potential confounders (β = -2.57, p-value = 0.008). The inverse relationship between air pollution and the ratio of pw-bw was found. (β = -0.001, p-value = 0.002). Conclusion: The results of this study suggest that air pollution is associated with newborns' health which in turn is a warning alarm for considering some actions in both sides of reducing the air pollution and teaching the pregnant women about the adverse effects of air pollution on the pregnancy outcomes.

Postural control as a function of time-of-day: influence of a prior strenuous running exercise or demanding sustained-attention task

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The current experiment investigated the impact of two potential confounding variables on the postural balance in young participants: the induced-experimental activity prior to the static postural measurements and the well-documented time-of-day effects. We mainly hypothesized that an exhaustive exercise and a high attention-demanding task should result in alterations of postural control. Methods Ten participants performed three experimental sessions (differentiated by the activity – none, cognitive or physical – prior of the assessment of postural stability), separated by one day at least. Each session included postural balance assessments around 8 a.m., 12.00 p.m. and 5 p.m. ± 30 min. The physical and cognitive activities were performed only before the 12 o’clock assessment. The postural tests consisted of four conditions of quiet stance: stance on a firm surface with eyes open; stance on a firm surface with eyes closed; stance on a foam surface with eyes open and stance on a foam surface with eyes closed. Postural performance was assessed by various center of pressure (COP) parameters. Results Overall, the COP findings indicated activity-related postural impairment, with an increase in body sway in the most difficult conditions (with foam surface), especially when postural measurements are recorded just after the running exercise (physical session) or the psychomotor vigilance test (cognitive session). Conclusions Even if no specific influence of time-of-day on static postural control is demonstrated, our results clearly suggest that the activities prior to balance tests could be a potential confounding variable to be taken into account and controlled when assessing clinical postural balance. PMID:23452958

Evaluation of Alternative Difference-in-Differences Methods

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yu, Bing

2013-01-01

Difference-in-differences (DID) strategies are particularly useful for evaluating policy effects in natural experiments in which, for example, a policy affects some schools and students but not others. However, the standard DID method may produce biased estimation of the policy effect if the confounding effect of concurrent events varies by…

ANOVA with Rasch Measures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Linacre, John Michael

Various methods of estimating main effects from ordinal data are presented and contrasted. Problems discussed include: (1) at what level to accumulate ordinal data into linear measures; (2) how to maintain scaling across analyses; and (3) the inevitable confounding of within cell variance with measurement error. An example shows three methods of…

DIFFERENCES IN STEROID MEASUREMENTS FOLLOWING ADULT AND HATCHLING EXPOSURE TO THE PHYTOESTROGEN APIGENIN

EPA Science Inventory

Weak estrogens, such as those produced by plants, may comprise the majority of the total estrogen load in exposed populations. Because of
their potential to produce confounding estrogenic and anti-estrogenic effects in competition with endogenous estradiol, several questions

Effect of water potential and void ratio on erodibility for agricultural soils

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Soil erodibility has confounded researchers for decades. Difficulties arise with initiation of motion, pore-water status, physical, and perhaps biological, material properties and type of applied energy (i.e. rainfall, runoff, freeze/thaw, wind). Though specific tests have been developed to determin...

Brief Report: Life History and Neuropathology of a Gifted Man with Asperger Syndrome

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weidenheim, Karen, M.; Escobar, Alfonso; Rapin, Isabelle

2012-01-01

Despite recent interest in the pathogenesis of the autism spectrum disorders (pervasive developmental disorders), neuropathological descriptions of brains of individuals with well documented clinical information and without potentially confounding symptomatology are exceptionally rare. Asperger syndrome differs from classic autism by lack of…

Beyond total treatment effects in randomised controlled trials: Baseline measurement of intermediate outcomes needed to reduce confounding in mediation investigations.

PubMed

Landau, Sabine; Emsley, Richard; Dunn, Graham

2018-06-01

Random allocation avoids confounding bias when estimating the average treatment effect. For continuous outcomes measured at post-treatment as well as prior to randomisation (baseline), analyses based on (A) post-treatment outcome alone, (B) change scores over the treatment phase or (C) conditioning on baseline values (analysis of covariance) provide unbiased estimators of the average treatment effect. The decision to include baseline values of the clinical outcome in the analysis is based on precision arguments, with analysis of covariance known to be most precise. Investigators increasingly carry out explanatory analyses to decompose total treatment effects into components that are mediated by an intermediate continuous outcome and a non-mediated part. Traditional mediation analysis might be performed based on (A) post-treatment values of the intermediate and clinical outcomes alone, (B) respective change scores or (C) conditioning on baseline measures of both intermediate and clinical outcomes. Using causal diagrams and Monte Carlo simulation, we investigated the performance of the three competing mediation approaches. We considered a data generating model that included three possible confounding processes involving baseline variables: The first two processes modelled baseline measures of the clinical variable or the intermediate variable as common causes of post-treatment measures of these two variables. The third process allowed the two baseline variables themselves to be correlated due to past common causes. We compared the analysis models implied by the competing mediation approaches with this data generating model to hypothesise likely biases in estimators, and tested these in a simulation study. We applied the methods to a randomised trial of pragmatic rehabilitation in patients with chronic fatigue syndrome, which examined the role of limiting activities as a mediator. Estimates of causal mediation effects derived by approach (A) will be biased if one of the three processes involving baseline measures of intermediate or clinical outcomes is operating. Necessary assumptions for the change score approach (B) to provide unbiased estimates under either process include the independence of baseline measures and change scores of the intermediate variable. Finally, estimates provided by the analysis of covariance approach (C) were found to be unbiased under all the three processes considered here. When applied to the example, there was evidence of mediation under all methods but the estimate of the indirect effect depended on the approach used with the proportion mediated varying from 57% to 86%. Trialists planning mediation analyses should measure baseline values of putative mediators as well as of continuous clinical outcomes. An analysis of covariance approach is recommended to avoid potential biases due to confounding processes involving baseline measures of intermediate or clinical outcomes, and not simply for increased precision.

Lack of association between JAK3 gene polymorphisms and cardiovascular disease in Spanish patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

García-Bermúdez, Mercedes; López-Mejías, Raquel; Genre, Fernanda; Castañeda, Santos; Corrales, Alfonso; Llorca, Javier; González-Juanatey, Carlos; Ubilla, Begoña; Miranda-Filloy, José A; Pina, Trinitario; Gómez-Vaquero, Carmen; Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Luis; Fernández-Gutiérrez, Benjamín; Balsa, Alejandro; Pascual-Salcedo, Dora; López-Longo, Francisco J; Carreira, Patricia; Blanco, Ricardo; Martín, Javier; González-Gay, Miguel A

2015-01-01

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a polygenic disease associated with accelerated atherosclerosis and increased cardiovascular (CV) mortality. JAK/STAT signalling pathway is involved in autoimmune diseases and in the atherosclerotic process. JAK3 is a highly promising target for immunomodulatory drugs and polymorphisms in JAK3 gene have been associated with CV events in incident dialysis patients. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the potential role of JAK3 polymorphisms in the development of CV disease in patients with RA. 2136 Spanish RA patients were genotyped for the rs3212780 and rs3212752 JAK3 gene polymorphisms by TaqMan assays. Subclinical atherosclerosis was evaluated in 539 of these patients by carotid ultrasonography (US). No statistically significant differences were found when each polymorphism was assessed according to carotid intima-media thickness values and presence/absence of carotid plaques in RA, after adjusting the results for potential confounders. Moreover, no significant differences were obtained when RA patients were stratified according to the presence/absence of CV events after adjusting for potential confounders. In conclusion, our results do not confirm association between JAK3 polymorphisms and CV disease in RA.

Lack of Association between JAK3 Gene Polymorphisms and Cardiovascular Disease in Spanish Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis

PubMed Central

García-Bermúdez, Mercedes; López-Mejías, Raquel; Castañeda, Santos; Corrales, Alfonso; González-Juanatey, Carlos; Ubilla, Begoña; Miranda-Filloy, José A.; Pina, Trinitario; Gómez-Vaquero, Carmen; Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Luis; Fernández-Gutiérrez, Benjamín; Balsa, Alejandro; Pascual-Salcedo, Dora; López-Longo, Francisco J.; Carreira, Patricia; Blanco, Ricardo; Martín, Javier; González-Gay, Miguel A.

2015-01-01

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a polygenic disease associated with accelerated atherosclerosis and increased cardiovascular (CV) mortality. JAK/STAT signalling pathway is involved in autoimmune diseases and in the atherosclerotic process. JAK3 is a highly promising target for immunomodulatory drugs and polymorphisms in JAK3 gene have been associated with CV events in incident dialysis patients. Therefore, the aim of this study was to assess the potential role of JAK3 polymorphisms in the development of CV disease in patients with RA. 2136 Spanish RA patients were genotyped for the rs3212780 and rs3212752 JAK3 gene polymorphisms by TaqMan assays. Subclinical atherosclerosis was evaluated in 539 of these patients by carotid ultrasonography (US). No statistically significant differences were found when each polymorphism was assessed according to carotid intima-media thickness values and presence/absence of carotid plaques in RA, after adjusting the results for potential confounders. Moreover, no significant differences were obtained when RA patients were stratified according to the presence/absence of CV events after adjusting for potential confounders. In conclusion, our results do not confirm association between JAK3 polymorphisms and CV disease in RA. PMID:25815310

A quantitative approach to assessing the efficacy of occupant protection programs: A case study from Montana.

PubMed

Manlove, Kezia; Stanley, Laura; Peck, Alyssa

2015-10-01

Quantitative evaluation of vehicle occupant protection programs is critical for ensuring efficient government resource allocation, but few methods exist for conducting evaluation across multiple programs simultaneously. Here we present an analysis of occupant protection efficacy in the state of Montana. This approach relies on seat belt compliance rates as measured by the National Occupant Protection Usage Survey (NOPUS). A hierarchical logistic regression model is used to estimate the impacts of four Montana Department of Transportation (MDT)-funded occupant protection programs used in the state of Montana, following adjustment for a suite of potential confounders. Activity from two programs, Buckle Up coalitions and media campaigns, are associated with increased seat belt use in Montana, whereas the impact of another program, Selective Traffic Enforcement, is potentially masked by other program activity. A final program, Driver's Education, is not associated with any shift in seat belt use. This method allows for a preliminary quantitative estimation of program impacts without requiring states to obtain any new seat belt use data. This approach provides states a preliminary look at program impacts, and a means for carefully planning future program allocation and investigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Strange Words: Autistic Traits and the Processing of Non-Literal Language.

PubMed

McKenna, Peter E; Glass, Alexandra; Rajendran, Gnanathusharan; Corley, Martin

2015-11-01

Previous investigations into metonymy comprehension in ASD have confounded metonymy with anaphora, and outcome with process. Here we show how these confounds may be avoided, using data from non-diagnosed participants classified using Autism Quotient. Participants read sentences containing target words with novel or established metonymic senses (e.g., Finland, Vietnam) in literal- or figurative-supporting contexts. Participants took longer to read target words in figurative contexts, especially where the metonymic sense was novel. Importantly, participants with higher AQs took longer still to read novel metonyms. This suggests a focus for further exploration, in terms of potential differences between individuals diagnosed with ASD and their neurotypical counterparts, and more generally in terms of the processes by which comprehension is achieved.

Modeling Gene-Environment Interactions With Quasi-Natural Experiments.

PubMed

Schmitz, Lauren; Conley, Dalton

2017-02-01

This overview develops new empirical models that can effectively document Gene × Environment (G×E) interactions in observational data. Current G×E studies are often unable to support causal inference because they use endogenous measures of the environment or fail to adequately address the nonrandom distribution of genes across environments, confounding estimates. Comprehensive measures of genetic variation are incorporated into quasi-natural experimental designs to exploit exogenous environmental shocks or isolate variation in environmental exposure to avoid potential confounders. In addition, we offer insights from population genetics that improve upon extant approaches to address problems from population stratification. Together, these tools offer a powerful way forward for G×E research on the origin and development of social inequality across the life course. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A sequential Cox approach for estimating the causal effect of treatment in the presence of time-dependent confounding applied to data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

PubMed

Gran, Jon Michael; Røysland, Kjetil; Wolbers, Marcel; Didelez, Vanessa; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Ledergerber, Bruno; Furrer, Hansjakob; von Wyl, Viktor; Aalen, Odd O

2010-11-20

When estimating the effect of treatment on HIV using data from observational studies, standard methods may produce biased estimates due to the presence of time-dependent confounders. Such confounding can be present when a covariate, affected by past exposure, is both a predictor of the future exposure and the outcome. One example is the CD4 cell count, being a marker for disease progression for HIV patients, but also a marker for treatment initiation and influenced by treatment. Fitting a marginal structural model (MSM) using inverse probability weights is one way to give appropriate adjustment for this type of confounding. In this paper we study a simple and intuitive approach to estimate similar treatment effects, using observational data to mimic several randomized controlled trials. Each 'trial' is constructed based on individuals starting treatment in a certain time interval. An overall effect estimate for all such trials is found using composite likelihood inference. The method offers an alternative to the use of inverse probability of treatment weights, which is unstable in certain situations. The estimated parameter is not identical to the one of an MSM, it is conditioned on covariate values at the start of each mimicked trial. This allows the study of questions that are not that easily addressed fitting an MSM. The analysis can be performed as a stratified weighted Cox analysis on the joint data set of all the constructed trials, where each trial is one stratum. The model is applied to data from the Swiss HIV cohort study. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A Bayesian Framework to Account for Complex Non-Genetic Factors in Gene Expression Levels Greatly Increases Power in eQTL Studies

PubMed Central

Durbin, Richard; Winn, John

2010-01-01

Gene expression measurements are influenced by a wide range of factors, such as the state of the cell, experimental conditions and variants in the sequence of regulatory regions. To understand the effect of a variable of interest, such as the genotype of a locus, it is important to account for variation that is due to confounding causes. Here, we present VBQTL, a probabilistic approach for mapping expression quantitative trait loci (eQTLs) that jointly models contributions from genotype as well as known and hidden confounding factors. VBQTL is implemented within an efficient and flexible inference framework, making it fast and tractable on large-scale problems. We compare the performance of VBQTL with alternative methods for dealing with confounding variability on eQTL mapping datasets from simulations, yeast, mouse, and human. Employing Bayesian complexity control and joint modelling is shown to result in more precise estimates of the contribution of different confounding factors resulting in additional associations to measured transcript levels compared to alternative approaches. We present a threefold larger collection of cis eQTLs than previously found in a whole-genome eQTL scan of an outbred human population. Altogether, 27% of the tested probes show a significant genetic association in cis, and we validate that the additional eQTLs are likely to be real by replicating them in different sets of individuals. Our method is the next step in the analysis of high-dimensional phenotype data, and its application has revealed insights into genetic regulation of gene expression by demonstrating more abundant cis-acting eQTLs in human than previously shown. Our software is freely available online at http://www.sanger.ac.uk/resources/software/peer/. PMID:20463871

Prevalence of hypertension and noise-induced hearing loss in Chinese coal miners

PubMed Central

Liu, Jing; Xu, Ming; Ding, Lu; Zhang, Hengdong; Pan, Liping; Liu, Qingdong; Ding, Enming; Zhao, Qiuni; Wang, Boshen; Han, Lei

2016-01-01

Background Owing to inconsistent epidemiologic evidence and the presence of confounding factors, the relation between occupational noise exposure and hypertension still remained unclear. We aimed to assess whether Chinese coal miners were at risk of developing hypertension and noise induced hearing loss (NIHL), and whether occupational noise exposure was a risk factor of hypertension. Methods A questionnaire was designed to collect information from 738 study participants, all of whom were employees from the Datun Xuzhou Coal Company. The participants were divided into a noise-exposed group and a control group based on the noise level to which they were exposed in the workplace. The differences in the mean of systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) were compared between the noise-exposed and control groups. Also the prevalence and age-adjusted odds ratio (OR) [95% confidence intervals (CIs)] of audiometric deficit and hypertension was compared in the study. Binary logistic regression was used to assess the relation between occupational noise level and hypertension while controlling for potential confounding factors. Results Hypertension was more prevalent in noise-exposed group than the control group, 29.2% vs. 21.2% (P=0.012). The noise-exposed group faced an increased risk of hypertension (age-adjusted OR =1.52, 95% CI =1.07–2.15) when the control group was used as reference. The mean values of SBP and DBP of the noise-exposed groups were significantly higher than the control group (P=0.006 and P=0.002 respectively). Hearing loss at low frequencies was significantly more prevalent in the noise-exposed group than the control group, 12.8% vs. 7.4% (P=0.015), while the noise-exposed group faced the increased risk of hearing loss at low frequencies (age-adjusted OR =1.81, 95% CI =1.10–2.96). LEX, 8h (OR =1.036, 95% CI =1.012–1.060) was an independent risk of hypertension when controlling for potential confounding factors. Conclusions We found that the occupational noise had an effect on the hypertension and hearing loss of Chinese coal miners. And the occupational noise was an independent risk factor for hypertension and could increase the values of SBP and DBP. PMID:27076937

Gender-related mental health differences between refugees and non-refugee immigrants - a cross-sectional register-based study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Being an immigrant in a high-income country is a risk factor for severe mental ill health. Studies on mental ill health among immigrants have found significant differences in mental health outcome between immigrants from high income countries and low-income countries. Being an asylum seeker or a refugee is also associated with mental ill health. This study aimed to assess if there is a difference in mental ill health problems between male and female refugee and non-refugee immigrants from six low-income countries in Sweden. Methods A cross-sectional, population-based study design was used comparing refugees with non-refugees. The study size was determined by the number of persons in Sweden fulfilling the inclusion criteria at the time of the study during 2006. Outcome: Mental ill health, as measured with the proxy variable psychotropic drugs purchased. Refugee/Non-refugee: Sweden grants asylum to refugees according to the Geneva Convention and those with a well-grounded fear of death penalty, torture or who need protection due to an internal or external armed conflict or an environmental disaster. The non-refugees were all family members of those granted asylum in Sweden. Covariates: Gender and origin. Potential confounders: Age, marital status, education and duration of stay in Sweden. Background variables were analysed using chi square tests. The association between outcome, exposure and possible confounders was analysed using logistic regression analyses. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to adjust for potential confounders. Results The study population comprised 43,168 refugees and non-refugees, of whom 20,940 (48.5%) were women and 24,403 (56.5%) were refugees. Gender, age, origin, marital status and education were all associated with the outcome. For female, but not male, refugees there was a significantly higher likelihood of purchasing psychotropic drugs than non-refugees (OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.15 - 1.40). Conclusions Female refugees from low-income countries seem to be a risk group among immigrant women from low-income countries, whereas male refugees had the same risk patterns as non-refugee immigrants from low-income countries. This underlines the need for training of clinicians in order to focus on pre-migration stress and the asylum process, among female newcomers. PMID:21435212

Stability and change in health behaviours as predictors for disability pension: a prospective cohort study of Swedish twins

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Stability or changes of health behaviours have not been studied in association with incidence of disability pension (DP). The aims were to (1) investigate if stability or changes in health behaviours predict DP due to musculoskeletal diagnosis (MSD), (2) to evaluate if an association exists for DP in general, and (3) after taking familial confounding into account. Methods The study sample was 16,713 like-sexed twin individuals born in Sweden between 1935-1958 (6195 complete twin pairs) who had participated in two surveys 25 years apart, were alive, and not pensioned at the time of the latest survey. Cox proportional hazards analysis was used to assess the associations (hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI)) between stability and change in health behaviours (physical activity, tobacco and alcohol use, body mass index (BMI)), and number of pain locations collected at two time points 25 years apart and the incidence of DP until 2008. Results During the follow-up, 1843 (11%) individuals were granted DP with 747 of these due to MSD. A higher proportion of women were granted DP than men. Increase in BMI and stable use of tobacco products were predictors for DP due to MSD (HR 1.21-1.48) and DP in general (HR 1.10-1.41). The stability in the frequency of physical activity and increased frequency of physical activity were protective factors for DP due to MSD only when accounting for familial confounding. However, the number of pain locations (stability, increase, or decrease) was the strongest predictor for future DP due to MSD (HR 3.69, CI 2.99-4.56) and DP in general (HR 2.15, CI 1.92-2.42). In discordant pair analysis, the HRs for pain were lower, indicating potential familial confounding. Conclusions Health behaviours in adulthood, including an increase in pain locations were associated with the incidence of DP. The association between physical activity and DP was especially related to adulthood choices or habits, i.e., the individual decision about frequency of exercising. Thus, it is important to e.g. increase public awareness of the potential beneficial effects of exercise throughout life to avoid permanent exclusion from the labour market for medical reasons. PMID:21880151

Preconception Maternal Iodine Status Is Positively Associated with IQ but Not with Measures of Executive Function in Childhood

PubMed Central

Robinson, Sian M; Crozier, Sarah R; Miles, Elizabeth A; Gale, Catharine R; Calder, Philip C; Cooper, Cyrus; Inskip, Hazel M; Godfrey, Keith M

2018-01-01

Abstract Background Adverse effects of severe maternal iodine deficiency in pregnancy on fetal brain development are well-established, but the effects of milder deficiency are uncertain. Most studies examine iodine status in pregnancy; less is known about iodine nutrition before conception. Objective We examined relations between maternal preconception iodine status and offspring cognitive function, within a prospective mother-offspring cohort. Methods Maternal iodine status was assessed through the use of the ratio of iodine:creatinine concentrations (I/Cr) in spot urine samples [median (IQR) period before conception 3.3 y (2.2–4.7 y)]. Childhood cognitive function was assessed at age 6–7 y. Full-scale IQ was assessed via the Wechsler Abbreviated Scale of Intelligence, and executive function through the use of tests from the Cambridge Neuropsychological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB). Analyses (n = 654 mother-child dyads) were adjusted for potential confounders including maternal intelligence, education, and breastfeeding duration. Results The median (IQR) urinary iodine concentration was 108.4 µg/L (62.2–167.8 µg/L) and the I/Cr ratio 114 µg/g (76–164 µg/g). The preconception I/Cr ratio was positively associated with child IQ, before and after adjustment for potential confounding influences [β = 0.13 (95% CI: 0.04, 0.21)/SD, P = 0.003]. 8.9% of women had a preconception urinary I/Cr ratio <50 µg/g; compared with those with an I/Cr ratio ≥150 µg/g, the IQ of their offspring was 0.49 (95% CI: 0.79, 0.18) SD lower. There were no associations with the executive function outcomes assessed via CANTAB, before or after adjustment for confounders. Conclusion The positive association between iodine status before conception and child IQ provides some support for demonstrated links between low maternal iodine status in pregnancy and poorer cognitive function reported in other studies. However, given the negative effects on school performance previously observed in children born to iodine-deficient mothers, the lack of associations with measures of executive function in the present study was unexpected. Further data are needed to establish the public health importance of low preconception iodine status. PMID:29767745

Squeezing observational data for better causal inference: Methods and examples for prevention research.

PubMed

Garcia-Huidobro, Diego; Michael Oakes, J

2017-04-01

Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) are typically viewed as the gold standard for causal inference. This is because effects of interest can be identified with the fewest assumptions, especially imbalance in background characteristics. Yet because conducting RCTs are expensive, time consuming and sometimes unethical, observational studies are frequently used to study causal associations. In these studies, imbalance, or confounding, is usually controlled with multiple regression, which entails strong assumptions. The purpose of this manuscript is to describe strengths and weaknesses of several methods to control for confounding in observational studies, and to demonstrate their use in cross-sectional dataset that use patient registration data from the Juan Pablo II Primary Care Clinic in La Pintana-Chile. The dataset contains responses from 5855 families who provided complete information on family socio-demographics, family functioning and health problems among their family members. We employ regression adjustment, stratification, restriction, matching, propensity score matching, standardisation and inverse probability weighting to illustrate the approaches to better causal inference in non-experimental data and compare results. By applying study design and data analysis techniques that control for confounding in different ways than regression adjustment, researchers may strengthen the scientific relevance of observational studies. © 2016 International Union of Psychological Science.

Is the Association of Subjective SES and Self-Rated Health Confounded by Negative Mood? An Experimental Approach

PubMed Central

Kraus, Michael W.; Adler, Nancy; David Chen, Teh-Way

2012-01-01

Objective Lower subjective socioeconomic status (SSS) consistently shows associations with poorer health with the strongest relationships emerging with global self-rated health. Though often interpreted as reflecting the impact of low SSS on health, the association could also arise from confounding SSS with negative affect. In this research we sought to determine if negative affect confounds, or alternatively, is on the causal pathway linking SSS to self-rated health. Methods 300 adult participants—recruited from throughout the United States—were randomized to experience sadness, shame, or a neutral mood induction wherein they wrote about and visualized a particularly emotionally evocative event. Participants subsequently completed measures of SSS, self-rated health, depression, and negative mood. Results Consistent with predictions, neither SSS scores nor the association of SSS with self-rated health, depression, and chronic negative affect differed by mood induction condition, controlling for demographic factors that covary with SSS (e.g., age, gender, education, income). Moreover, chronic negative affect partially explained the relationship between SSS and self-rated health, independent of manipulated mood. Conclusions These findings support the utility of the measurement of SSS, and provide evidence suggesting that chronic negative affect is a likely mediator of the SSS association with global health rather than a confounder. PMID:22329426

Effects of Age at First Childbirth and Other Factors on Central Obesity in Postmenopausal Women: The 2013–2015 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

PubMed Central

Lee, Wang Jin; Lee, Joo Ha; Kwag, Byoung Gyu; Chang, Shin Hae; Choi, Yu Jin

2018-01-01

Background Waist circumference is one of the key components of metabolic syndrome. Recent studies demonstrated that the reproductive profile was associated with metabolic syndrome in postmenopausal women. This study focused on the association between central obesity and age at first childbirth. It also considered other factors associated with central obesity in postmenopausal women. Methods This study was based on the 2013–2015 Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and involved 3,143 naturally postmenopausal women. These women were divided into three groups according to their age at first childbirth: 19 years or younger (n=252), 20–29 years (n=2,695), and 30 years or older (n=196). Multivariate analysis using logistic regression was performed to evaluate the effects of various reproductive factors, including other confounding factors. Results During adjustment for confounding factors, in the early age at first childbirth group, odds ratios (95% confidence intervals) for central obesity decreased. In the final model, younger age at first childbirth was not significantly related to central obesity (waist circumference more than 85 cm) in naturally postmenopausal women after adjusting for other confounding factors. Conclusion Younger age at first childbirth was not significantly associated with central obesity after adjustment for confounding factors. PMID:29788703

Hospital ownership and financial performance: what explains the different findings in the empirical literature?

PubMed

Shen, Yu-Chu; Eggleston, Karen; Lau, Joseph; Schmid, Christopher H

2007-01-01

This study applies meta-analytic methods to conduct a quantitative review of the empirical literature on hospital ownership since 1990. We examine four financial outcomes across 40 studies: cost, revenue, profit margin, and efficiency. We find that variation in the magnitudes of ownership effects can be explained by a study's research focus and methodology. Studies using empirical methods that control for few confounding factors tend to find larger differences between for-profit and not-for-profit hospitals than studies that control for a wider range of confounding factors. Functional form and sample size also matter. Failure to apply log transformation to highly skewed expenditure data yields misleadingly large estimated differences between for-profits and not-for-profits. Studies with fewer than 200 observations also produce larger point estimates and wide confidence intervals.

Application of an In Vivo Hepatic Triacylglycerol Production Method in the Setting of a High-Fat Diet in Mice

PubMed Central

Ono-Moore, Kikumi D.; Ferguson, Matthew; Blackburn, Michael L.; Issafras, Hassan; Adams, Sean H.

2016-01-01

High-fat (HF) diets typically promote diet-induced obesity (DIO) and metabolic dysfunction (i.e., insulin resistance, hypertriglyceridemia, and hepatic steatosis). Dysfunction of triacylglycerol (TAG) metabolism may contribute to the development of hepatic steatosis, via increased de novo lipogenesis or repackaging of circulating nonesterified fatty acids (NEFAs). Hepatic TAG production (HTP) rate can be assessed through injecting mice with nonionic detergents that inhibit tissue lipoprotein lipase. Potential confounding effects of detergent-based HTP tests (HTPTs) used in longitudinal studies—including the impact on food intake, energy balance, and weight gain—have not been reported. To examine this, male C57BL/6J mice were fed a 10% or 60% kcal diet. After 4 weeks, the mice underwent an HTPT via poloxamer 407 intraperitoneal injections (1000 mg/kg). Weight gain, energy intake, and postabsorptive TAG levels normalized 7–10 days post-HTPT. The post-HTPT recovery of body weight and energy intake suggest that, in metabolic phenotyping studies, any additional sample collection should occur at least 7–10 days after the HTPT to reduce confounding effects. Diet-specific effects on HTP were also observed: HF-fed mice had reduced HTP, plasma TAG, and NEFA levels compared to controls. In conclusion, the current study highlights the procedural and physiological complexities associated with studying lipid metabolism using a HTPT in the DIO mouse model. PMID:28036028

Meat intake and reproductive parameters among young men

PubMed Central

Afeiche, Myriam C; Williams, Paige L; Gaskins, Audrey J; Mendiola, Jaime; Jørgensen, Niels; Swan, Shanna H

2014-01-01

Background In the United States, anabolic sex steroids are administered to cattle for growth promotion. There is concern regarding the reproductive consequences of this practice for men who eat beef. We investigated whether meat consumption was associated with semen quality parameters and reproductive hormone levels in young men. Methods Semen samples were obtained from 189 men aged 18-22 years. Diet was assessed with a previously validated food frequency questionnaire. We used linear regression to analyze the cross-sectional associations of meat intake with semen quality parameters and reproductive hormones, while adjusting for potential confounders. Results There was an inverse relation between processed red meat intake and total sperm count. The adjusted relative differences in total sperm counts for men in increasing quartiles of processed meat intake were 0 (ref), −3 (95% confidence interval = −67 to 37), −14 (−82 to 28), and −78 (−202 to −5) million (test for trend, P = 0.01). This association was strongest among men with abstinence time less than 2 days and was driven by a strong inverse relation between processed red meat intake and ejaculate volume (test for trend, P =0.003). Conclusions In our population of young men, processed meat intake was associated with lower total sperm count. We cannot distinguish whether this association is due to residual confounding by abstinence time or represents a true biological effect. PMID:24681577

Cigarettes and suicide: a prospective study of 50,000 men.

PubMed Central

Miller, M; Hemenway, D; Rimm, E

2000-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study examined the relation between smoking and suicide, controlling for various confounders. METHODS: More than 50,000 predominantly White, middle-aged and elderly male health professionals were followed up prospectively with biennial questionnaires from 1986 through 1994. The primary end point was suicide. Characteristics controlled for included age, marital status, body mass index, physical activity, alcohol intake, coffee consumption, and history of cancer. RESULTS: Eighty-two members of the cohort committed suicide during the 8-year follow-up period. In age-adjusted analyses with never smokers as the comparison group, the relative risk of suicide was 1.4 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.8, 2.3) among former smokers, 2.6 (95% CI = 0.9, 7.5) for light smokers (< 15 cigarettes/day), and 4.5 (95% CI = 2.3, 8.8) among heavier smokers. After adjustment for potential confounders, the relative risks were 1.4 (95% CI = 0.9, 2.4), 2.5 (95% CI = 0.9, 7.3), and 4.3 (95% CI = 2.2, 8.5), respectively. CONCLUSION: We found a positive, dose-related association between smoking and suicide among White men. Although inference about causality is not justified, our findings indicate that the smoking-suicide connection is not entirely due to the greater tendency among smokers to be unmarried, to be sedentary, to drink heavily, or to develop cancers. PMID:10800427

Impact of Differential Attrition on the Association of Education With Cognitive Change Over 20 Years of Follow-up

PubMed Central

Gottesman, Rebecca F.; Rawlings, Andreea M.; Sharrett, A. Richey; Albert, Marilyn; Alonso, Alvaro; Bandeen-Roche, Karen; Coker, Laura H.; Coresh, Josef; Couper, David J.; Griswold, Michael E.; Heiss, Gerardo; Knopman, David S.; Patel, Mehul D.; Penman, Alan D.; Power, Melinda C.; Selnes, Ola A.; Schneider, Andrea L. C.; Wagenknecht, Lynne E.; Windham, B. Gwen; Wruck, Lisa M.; Mosley, Thomas H.

2014-01-01

Studies of long-term cognitive change should account for the potential effects of education on the outcome, since some studies have demonstrated an association of education with dementia risk. Evaluating cognitive change is more ideal than evaluating cognitive performance at a single time point, because it should be less susceptible to confounding. In this analysis of 14,020 persons from a US cohort study, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, we measured change in performance on 3 cognitive tests over a 20-year period, from ages 48–67 years (1990–1992) through ages 70–89 years (2011–2013). Generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between education and cognitive change in unweighted adjusted models, in models incorporating inverse probability of attrition weighting, and in models using cognitive scores imputed from the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status for participants not examined in person. Education did not have a strong relationship with change in cognitive test performance, although the rate of decline was somewhat slower among persons with lower levels of education. Methods used to account for selective dropout only marginally changed these observed associations. Future studies of risk factors for cognitive impairment should focus on cognitive change, when possible, to allow for reduction of confounding by social or cultural factors. PMID:24627572

Impact of differential attrition on the association of education with cognitive change over 20 years of follow-up: the ARIC neurocognitive study.

PubMed

Gottesman, Rebecca F; Rawlings, Andreea M; Sharrett, A Richey; Albert, Marilyn; Alonso, Alvaro; Bandeen-Roche, Karen; Coker, Laura H; Coresh, Josef; Couper, David J; Griswold, Michael E; Heiss, Gerardo; Knopman, David S; Patel, Mehul D; Penman, Alan D; Power, Melinda C; Selnes, Ola A; Schneider, Andrea L C; Wagenknecht, Lynne E; Windham, B Gwen; Wruck, Lisa M; Mosley, Thomas H

2014-04-15

Studies of long-term cognitive change should account for the potential effects of education on the outcome, since some studies have demonstrated an association of education with dementia risk. Evaluating cognitive change is more ideal than evaluating cognitive performance at a single time point, because it should be less susceptible to confounding. In this analysis of 14,020 persons from a US cohort study, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study, we measured change in performance on 3 cognitive tests over a 20-year period, from ages 48-67 years (1990-1992) through ages 70-89 years (2011-2013). Generalized estimating equations were used to evaluate the association between education and cognitive change in unweighted adjusted models, in models incorporating inverse probability of attrition weighting, and in models using cognitive scores imputed from the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status for participants not examined in person. Education did not have a strong relationship with change in cognitive test performance, although the rate of decline was somewhat slower among persons with lower levels of education. Methods used to account for selective dropout only marginally changed these observed associations. Future studies of risk factors for cognitive impairment should focus on cognitive change, when possible, to allow for reduction of confounding by social or cultural factors.

Urinary Triclosan is Associated with Elevated Body Mass Index in NHANES

PubMed Central

Lankester, Joanna; Patel, Chirag; Cullen, Mark R.; Ley, Catherine; Parsonnet, Julie

2013-01-01

Background Triclosan—a ubiquitous chemical in toothpastes, soaps, and household cleaning supplies—has the potential to alter both gut microbiota and endocrine function and thereby affect body weight. Methods We investigated the relationship between triclosan and body mass index (BMI) using National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) from 2003–2008. BMI and spot urinary triclosan levels were obtained from adults. Using two different exposure measures—either presence vs. absence or quartiles of triclosan—we assessed the association between triclosan and BMI. We also screened all NHANES serum and urine biomarkers to identify correlated factors that might confound observed associations. Results Compared with undetectable triclosan, a detectable level was associated with a 0.9-point increase in BMI (p<0.001). In analysis by quartile, compared to the lowest quartile, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th quartiles of urinary triclosan were associated with BMI increases of 1.5 (p<0.001), 1.0 (p = 0.002), and 0.3 (p = 0.33) respectively. The one strong correlate of triclosan identified in NHANES was its metabolite, 2,4-dichlorophenol (ρ = 0.4); its association with BMI, however, was weaker than that of triclosan. No other likely confounder was identified. Conclusions Triclosan exposure is associated with increased BMI. Stronger effect at moderate than high levels suggests a complex mechanism of action. PMID:24278238

Challenges for the functional diffusion map in pediatric brain tumors

PubMed Central

Grech-Sollars, Matthew; Saunders, Dawn E.; Phipps, Kim P.; Kaur, Ramneek; Paine, Simon M.L.; Jacques, Thomas S.; Clayden, Jonathan D.; Clark, Chris A.

2014-01-01

Background The functional diffusion map (fDM) has been suggested as a tool for early detection of tumor treatment efficacy. We aim to study 3 factors that could act as potential confounders in the fDM: areas of necrosis, tumor grade, and change in tumor size. Methods Thirty-four pediatric patients with brain tumors were enrolled in a retrospective study, approved by the local ethics committee, to examine the fDM. Tumors were selected to encompass a range of types and grades. A qualitative analysis was carried out to compare how fDM findings may be affected by each of the 3 confounders by comparing fDM findings to clinical image reports. Results Results show that the fDM in areas of necrosis do not discriminate between treatment response and tumor progression. Furthermore, tumor grade alters the behavior of the fDM: a decrease in apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) is a sign of tumor progression in high-grade tumors and treatment response in low-grade tumors. Our results also suggest using only tumor area overlap between the 2 time points analyzed for the fDM in tumors of varying size. Conclusions Interpretation of fDM results needs to take into account the underlying biology of both tumor and healthy tissue. Careful interpretation of the results is required with due consideration to areas of necrosis, tumor grade, and change in tumor size. PMID:24305721

Dynamic changes in quality of life after three first-line therapies for EGFR mutation-positive advanced non-small-cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Yang, Szu-Chun; Lin, Chien-Chung; Lai, Wu-Wei; Chang, Sheng-Mao; Hwang, Jing-Shiang; Su, Wu-Chou; Wang, Jung-Der

2018-01-01

Three different tyrosine kinase inhibitors have been approved as first-line therapies for epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation-positive advanced non-small-cell lung cancer with similar overall survival. This study determined dynamic changes in quality of life (QoL) for patients using these therapies after controlling for potential confounders. From 2011 to 2016, we prospectively assessed the utility values and QoL scores of patients using the EuroQol five-dimension and World Health Organization Quality-of-Life - Brief questionnaires. QoL functions after initiation of treatment were estimated using a kernel-smoothing method. Dynamic changes in major determinants were repeatedly assessed for constructing mixed models. A total of 344 patients were enrolled, with 934 repeated assessments. After controlling for performance status, disease progression, EGFR mutation subtype and other confounders, the mixed models showed significantly lower QoL scores for afatinib versus gefitinib in the physical, psychological and social domains, and 10 facets. The differences seemed to appear 10 months after initiation of treatment. In contrast, there was no significant difference between erlotinib and gefitinib in the scores of all domains and facets. QoL in patients receiving afatinib seemed to be lower than in those receiving gefitinib. Since the sample sizes in this study were relatively small, more studies are warranted to corroborate these results.

Application of an In Vivo Hepatic Triacylglycerol Production Method in the Setting of a High-Fat Diet in Mice.

PubMed

Ono-Moore, Kikumi D; Ferguson, Matthew; Blackburn, Michael L; Issafras, Hassan; Adams, Sean H

2016-12-28

High-fat (HF) diets typically promote diet-induced obesity (DIO) and metabolic dysfunction (i.e., insulin resistance, hypertriglyceridemia, and hepatic steatosis). Dysfunction of triacylglycerol (TAG) metabolism may contribute to the development of hepatic steatosis, via increased de novo lipogenesis or repackaging of circulating nonesterified fatty acids (NEFAs). Hepatic TAG production (HTP) rate can be assessed through injecting mice with nonionic detergents that inhibit tissue lipoprotein lipase. Potential confounding effects of detergent-based HTP tests (HTPTs) used in longitudinal studies-including the impact on food intake, energy balance, and weight gain-have not been reported. To examine this, male C57BL/6J mice were fed a 10% or 60% kcal diet. After 4 weeks, the mice underwent an HTPT via poloxamer 407 intraperitoneal injections (1000 mg/kg). Weight gain, energy intake, and postabsorptive TAG levels normalized 7-10 days post-HTPT. The post-HTPT recovery of body weight and energy intake suggest that, in metabolic phenotyping studies, any additional sample collection should occur at least 7-10 days after the HTPT to reduce confounding effects. Diet-specific effects on HTP were also observed: HF-fed mice had reduced HTP, plasma TAG, and NEFA levels compared to controls. In conclusion, the current study highlights the procedural and physiological complexities associated with studying lipid metabolism using a HTPT in the DIO mouse model.

Dietary approaches to stop hypertension diet and obesity: A cross-sectional study of Iranian children and adolescents.

PubMed

Golpour-Hamedani, Sahar; Mohammadifard, Noushin; Khosravi, Alireza; Feizi, Awat; Safavi, Sayyed Morteza

2017-01-01

Few studies have investigated the effects of dietary approaches to stop hypertension (DASH) diet on obesity in children. The present study was conducted to examine adherence to the DASH diet in relation to obesity in children and adolescents, Isfahan, Iran. A cross-sectional study was carried out among 456 children aged 11-18 years who were selected by random cluster sampling method. Dietary intakes were assessed using a validated Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ). The DASH score was constructed based on food items emphasized or minimized in the DASH diet. Anthropometric measurements were conducted based on standard protocols. General and abdominal obesity were defined based on body mass index ≥ 95th percentiles and waist: height ratio of more than 0.5, respectively. Higher adherence to DASH diet was inversely associated with general obesity (odds ratioT1 vs. T3 3.34, 95% confidence interval 1.28-8.75); however, after controlling for confounding factors, this association disappeared. Furthermore, higher adherence to DASH diet was negatively associated with central obesity in children, but the relation was not statistically significant. We concluded that there was an inverse nonsignificant association between adherence to DASH diet and general obesity indices after adjustment for potential confounders. Further, well-designed randomized clinical trial studies are suggested to find out the effect of DASH diet on obesity obviously.

Poppers, Kaposi's sarcoma, and HIV infection: empirical example of a strong confounding effect?

PubMed

Morabia, A

1995-01-01

Are there empirical examples of strong confounding effects? Textbooks usually show examples of weak confounding or use hypothetical examples of strong confounding to illustrate the paradoxical consequences of not separating out the effect of the studied exposure from that of second factor acting as a confounder. HIV infection is a candidate strong confounder of the spuriously high association reported between consumption of poppers, a sexual stimulant, and risk of Kaposi's sarcoma in the early phase of the AIDS epidemic. To examine this hypothesis, assumptions must be made on the prevalence of HIV infection among cases of Kaposi's sarcoma and on the prevalence of heavy popper consumption according to HIV infection in cases and controls. Results show that HIV infection may have confounded the poppers-Kaposi's sarcoma association. However, it cannot be ruled out that HIV did not qualify as a confounder because it was either an intermediate variable or an effect modifier of the association between popper inhalation and Kaposi's sarcoma. This example provides a basis to discuss the mechanism by which confounding occurs as well as the practical importance of confounding in epidemiologic research.

Disease Risk Score (DRS) as a Confounder Summary Method: Systematic Review and Recommendations

PubMed Central

Tadrous, Mina; Gagne, Joshua J.; Stürmer, Til; Cadarette, Suzanne M.

2013-01-01

Purpose To systematically examine trends and applications of the disease risk score (DRS) as a confounder summary method. Methods We completed a systematic search of MEDLINE and Web of Science® to identify all English language articles that applied DRS methods. We tabulated the number of publications by year and type (empirical application, methodological contribution, or review paper) and summarized methods used in empirical applications overall and by publication year (<2000, ≥2000). Results Of 714 unique articles identified, 97 examined DRS methods and 86 were empirical applications. We observed a bimodal distribution in the number of publications over time, with a peak 1979-1980, and resurgence since 2000. The majority of applications with methodological detail derived DRS using logistic regression (47%), used DRS as a categorical variable in regression (93%), and applied DRS in a non-experimental cohort (47%) or case-control (42%) study. Few studies examined effect modification by outcome risk (23%). Conclusion Use of DRS methods has increased yet remains low. Comparative effectiveness research may benefit from more DRS applications, particularly to examine effect modification by outcome risk. Standardized terminology may facilitate identification, application, and comprehension of DRS methods. More research is needed to support the application of DRS methods, particularly in case-control studies. PMID:23172692

Maternal Use of Corporal Punishment for 3-year-old Children and Subsequent Risk for Child Aggressive Behavior

PubMed Central

Taylor, Catherine A.; Manganello, Jennifer A.; Lee, Shawna J.; Rice, Janet C.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE To examine the association between maternal use of corporal punishment (CP) against their 3-year-old children and subsequent aggressive behavior among those children two years later. METHODS Respondents participated in waves 1, 3, and 5 of the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (1998–2005), a population-based longitudinal birth cohort study of children (and their parents) born in one of 20 large U.S. cities (n=2,461), with oversampling of unmarried couples. Maternal reports of CP, children’s aggressive behaviors at 3 and 5 years of age, and a host of key demographics and potential confounding factors were assessed including: child physical maltreatment, psychological maltreatment, and neglect, intimate partner aggression and violence, and maternal stress, depression, substance use, and consideration of abortion. RESULTS Multiple logistic regression analyses revealed that frequent use of CP (i.e., maternal use of spanking more than twice in the prior month) when the child was 3 years-old was associated with increased risk for higher levels of child aggression when the child was 5 years-old (adjusted odds ratio = 1.49 [CI=1.2–1.8] p<0.0001), even after simultaneously controlling for the child’s level of aggression at 3 years of age as well as all of the aforementioned confounding factors and key demographics. CONCLUSIONS Despite American Academy of Pediatrics recommendations to the contrary, most parents in the U.S. approve of and have used CP as a form of child discipline. The current findings support a growing body of evidence that even minor forms of CP, such as spanking, raise risk for increased subsequent child aggressive behavior. Importantly, these findings cannot be attributed to the possible confounding effects of a host of other maternal parenting risk factors. Increased and improved efforts to reduce the use of CP and promote the use of alternative, effective non-physical forms of child discipline among U.S. parents are warranted. PMID:20385647

Evaluation of skeletal muscle DTI in patients with duchenne muscular dystrophy.

PubMed

Hooijmans, M T; Damon, B M; Froeling, M; Versluis, M J; Burakiewicz, J; Verschuuren, J J G M; Niks, E H; Webb, A G; Kan, H E

2015-11-01

Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is a popular method to assess differences in fiber organization in diseased and healthy muscle tissue. Previous work has shown that muscle DTI measurements depend on signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), %fat, and tissue T2. The goal of this study was to evaluate the potential biasing effects of these factors on skeletal muscle DTI data in patients with Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD). MR images were obtained of the right lower leg of 21 DMD patients and 12 healthy controls on a Philips 3T system. DTI measurements were combined with quantitative in-vivo measures of mean water T2, %fat and SNR to evaluate their effect on DTI parameter estimation. All outcome measures were determined within ROIs drawn for six lower leg muscles. Between group analysis, using all ROIs, revealed a significantly elevated FA in the GCL, SOL and PER muscles (p<0.05) and an increased mean diffusivity (p<0.05) and λ3 (p<0.05) in the TA muscle of DMD patients. In-vivo evaluation of the individual confounders showed behaviour in line with predictions from previous simulation work. To account for these confounders, subsequent analysis used only ROIs with SNR greater than 20. With this criterion we found significantly greater MD in the TA muscle of DMD patient (p<0.009) and λ3 in the TA and GCL muscles (p<0.001) of DMD patients, but no differences in FA. As both increased %fat and lower SNR are expected to reduce the apparent MD and λ3, these between-group differences are likely due to pathophysiology. However, the increased FA, observed when using all ROIs, likely reflects the effect of low SNR and %fat on the DTI parameter estimation. These findings suggest that measuring mean water T2, %fat and SNR is essential to ascribe changes in DTI measures to intrinsic diffusion changes or to confounding influences. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Protective Effect of Hydroxychloroquine on Renal Damage in Patients with Lupus Nephritis: Data from LUMINA, a Multiethnic U.S. Cohort

PubMed Central

Pons-Estel, Guillermo J.; Alarcón, Graciela S.; McGwin, Gerald; Danila, Maria I.; Zhang, Jie; Bastian, Holly M.; Reveille, John D.; Vilá, Luis M.

2010-01-01

Objective To assess if hydroxychloroquine can delay renal damage development in lupus nephritis patients. Methods Lupus nephritis patients (n=256) from LUMINA (n=635), a multiethnic cohort of African Americans, Hispanics and Caucasians, age ≥16 years, disease duration ≤5 years at baseline (T0) were studied. Renal damage was defined per the SLICC Damage Index (≥1 of the following lasting at least six months: estimated/measured glomerular filtration rate <50%, 24-hour proteinuria ≥3.5 g and/or end-stage renal disease, regardless of dialysis or transplantation). Patients with renal damage before T0 were excluded (n=53). The association between hydroxychloroquine use and renal damage (as defined, or omitting proteinuria) was estimated using Cox proportional regression analyses adjusting for potentially confounders. Kaplan-Meier survival curves based on hydroxychloroquine intake or World Health Organization (WHO) Class glomerulonephritis were also derived. Results Sixty-three (31.0%) of 203 patients developed renal damage over a mean (standard deviation) disease duration of 5.2 (3.5) years. The most frequent renal damage domain item was proteinuria. Hydroxychloroquine-takers (79.3%) exhibited a lower frequency of WHO Class IV glomerulonephritis, lower disease activity and received lower glucocorticoid doses than non-takers. After adjusting for confounders, hydroxychloroquine was protective of renal damage occurrence in full (HR=0.12; 95% CI 0.02-0.97; p=0.0464) and reduced (HR=0.29; 95%CI 0.13-0.68; p=0.0043) models. Omitting proteinuria provided comparable results. The cumulative probability of renal damage occurrence was higher in hydroxychloroquine non-takers and in WHO Class IV glomerulonephritis (p<0.0001). Conclusions After adjusting for possible confounding factors the protective effect of hydroxychloroquine in retarding renal damage occurrence in SLE is still evident. PMID:19479701

Insulin-Like Growth Factor 1 (IGF-1) in Parkinson's Disease: Potential as Trait-, Progression- and Prediction Marker and Confounding Factors

PubMed Central

Binder, Gerhard; Weber, Karin; Apel, Anja; Roeben, Benjamin; Deuschle, Christian; Maechtel, Mirjam; Heger, Tanja; Nussbaum, Susanne; Gasser, Thomas; Maetzler, Walter; Berg, Daniela

2016-01-01

Introduction Biomarkers indicating trait, progression and prediction of pathology and symptoms in Parkinson's disease (PD) often lack specificity or reliability. Investigating biomarker variance between individuals and over time and the effect of confounding factors is essential for the evaluation of biomarkers in PD, such as insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1). Materials and Methods IGF-1 serum levels were investigated in up to 8 biannual visits in 37 PD patients and 22 healthy controls (HC) in the longitudinal MODEP study. IGF-1 baseline levels and annual changes in IGF-1 were compared between PD patients and HC while accounting for baseline disease duration (19 early stage: ≤3.5 years; 18 moderate stage: >4 years), age, sex, body mass index (BMI) and common medical factors putatively modulating IGF-1. In addition, associations of baseline IGF-1 with annual changes of motor, cognitive and depressive symptoms and medication dose were investigated. Results PD patients in moderate (130±26 ng/mL; p = .004), but not early stages (115±19, p>.1), showed significantly increased baseline IGF-1 levels compared with HC (106±24 ng/mL; p = .017). Age had a significant negative correlation with IGF-1 levels in HC (r = -.47, p = .028) and no correlation in PD patients (r = -.06, p>.1). BMI was negatively correlated in the overall group (r = -.28, p = .034). The annual changes in IGF-1 did not differ significantly between groups and were not correlated with disease duration. Baseline IGF-1 levels were not associated with annual changes of clinical parameters. Discussion Elevated IGF-1 in serum might differentiate between patients in moderate PD stages and HC. However, the value of serum IGF-1 as a trait-, progression- and prediction marker in PD is limited as IGF-1 showed large inter- and intraindividual variability and may be modulated by several confounders. PMID:26967642

Serum Tocopherol Levels and Vitamin E Intake are Associated with Lung Function in the Normative Aging Study

PubMed Central

Hanson, Corrine; Lyden, Elizabeth; Furtado, Jeremy; Campos, Hannia; Sparrow, David; Vokonas, Pantel; Litonjua, Augusto A.

2015-01-01

Background and Aims The results of studies assessing relationships between vitamin E intake and status and lung function are conflicting. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of vitamin E intake and serum levels of tocopherol isoforms on lung function in a cross-sectional sample of 580 men from the Normative Aging Study, a longitudinal aging study. Methods Regression models were used to look at associations of serum tocopherol isoform levels and vitamin E intake with lung function parameters after adjustment for confounders. Vitamin E intake was measured using a food frequency questionnaire and serum levels of γ, α, and δ-tocopherol levels were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography. Results After adjustment for potential confounders, serum γ-tocopherol had a significant inverse association with forced vital capacity (β=-0.10, p=0.05). Alpha and δ-tocopherol were not associated with any lung function parameter. After classifying COPD status according to Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage criteria, serum levels of δ-tocopherol were lower in participants with more severe COPD (p=0.01). Serum levels of δ-tocopherol were also lower in participants with greater levels of smoking (p=0.02). Both vitamin E intake (β=0.03, p=0.02; β=0.03, p=0.01) and use of vitamin E supplements (β=0.05, p=0.03; β=0.06. p=0.02) were positively associated with FEV1 and FVC, after adjusting for confounders. Subjects who took vitamin E supplements had significantly higher α-tocopherol levels (p<0.0001) and lower γ-tocopherol levels (p<0.0001) than non-users. Conclusion In this study, there is a positive association between dietary vitamin E intake and lung function, and evidence of an inverse relationship between serum levels of γ-tocopherol and lung function. PMID:25715694

Being Forward Not Backward: Lexical Limits to Masked Priming

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Chris; Kim, Jeesun; Forster, Kenneth I.

2008-01-01

This study investigated whether masked priming is mediated by existing memory representations by determining whether nonwords targets would show repetition priming. To avoid the potential confound that nonword repetition priming would be obscured by a familiarity response bias, the standard lexical decision and naming tasks were modified to make…

Intergenerational Transmission of Neuropsychological Executive Functioning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jester, Jennifer M.; Nigg, Joel T.; Puttler, Leon I.; Long, Jeffrey C.; Fitzgerald, Hiram E.; Zucker, Robert A.

2009-01-01

Relationships between parent and child executive functioning were examined, controlling for the critical potential confound of IQ, in a family study involving 434 children (130 girls and 304 boys) and 376 parents from 204 community recruited families at high risk for the development of substance use disorder. Structural equation modeling found…

The Effects of Teacher Behaviors on Students' Inclination to Inquire and Lifelong Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loes, Chad N.; Saichaie, Kem; Padget, Ryan D.; Pascarella, Ernest T.

2012-01-01

This study estimated the effects of teacher organization, clarity, classroom challenge and faculty expectations, support, and prompt feedback on students' inclination to inquire and lifelong learning during the first year of college. Controlling for a battery of potential confounding influences, teacher organization was positively associated with…

The Conservative Corner of the Liberal Academy? Fraternity/Sorority Membership, Politics, and Activism

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hevel, Michael S.; Weeden, Dustin D.; Pasquesi, Kira; Pascarella, Ernest T.

2015-01-01

We use a longitudinal dataset to explore the effect of fraternity/sorority membership on political orientation and social/political activism. After controlling for a variety of potentially confounding variables, including pretests on the dependent variables, fraternity and sorority members were significantly less liberal that their unaffiliated…

APOC3, Coronary Disease, and Complexities of Mendelian Randomization

PubMed Central

Cohen, Jonathan C.; Stender, Stefan; Hobbs, Helen H.

2014-01-01

Two new studies report that triglyceride (TG)-lowering mutations in APOC3 reduce coronary heart disease (CHD) (Crosby et al., 2014; Jørgensen et al., 2014). Here, we explore limitations of using Mendelian randomization to evaluate CHD risk, including potential confounding by the widespread use of statin therapy. PMID:25185943

Reconsidering the Relationship between Alcohol and Lethal Violence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Scott; Matusko, Jacqueline; Tomasovic, Elizabeth

2007-01-01

Prior event-based research regarding the relationship between alcohol and violence suffers from important limitations, including the absence of a comparison group, an inappropriate comparison group, or a comparison group that could be considered appropriate but does not control for potential confounders. To overcome such limitations, we use a…

Sampling depth confounds soil acidification outcomes

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

In the northern Great Plains (NGP) of North America, surface sampling depths of 0-15 or 0-20 cm are suggested for testing soil characteristics such as pH. However, acidification is often most pronounced near the soil surface. Thus, sampling deeper can potentially dilute (increase) pH measurements an...

Measuring Systematic Long-Term Trajectories of School Effectiveness Improvement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Valenzuela, Juan Pablo; Bellei, Cristián; Allende, Claudio

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to identify trajectories of school improvement experienced by Chilean elementary schools over the last decade. Using econometric analysis and controlling for potential confounding factors, we created an index of school performance combining outcome indicators focused on different school dimensions, and estimated the…

Advances in computer simulation of genome evolution: toward more realistic evolutionary genomics analysis by approximate bayesian computation.

PubMed

Arenas, Miguel

2015-04-01

NGS technologies present a fast and cheap generation of genomic data. Nevertheless, ancestral genome inference is not so straightforward due to complex evolutionary processes acting on this material such as inversions, translocations, and other genome rearrangements that, in addition to their implicit complexity, can co-occur and confound ancestral inferences. Recently, models of genome evolution that accommodate such complex genomic events are emerging. This letter explores these novel evolutionary models and proposes their incorporation into robust statistical approaches based on computer simulations, such as approximate Bayesian computation, that may produce a more realistic evolutionary analysis of genomic data. Advantages and pitfalls in using these analytical methods are discussed. Potential applications of these ancestral genomic inferences are also pointed out.

Genetic Influences Can Protect Against Unresponsive Parenting in the Prediction of Child Social Competence

PubMed Central

Van Ryzin, Mark J.; Leve, Leslie D.; Neiderhiser, Jenae M.; Shaw, Daniel S.; Natsuaki, Misaki N.; Reiss, David

2014-01-01

Although social competence in children has been linked to the quality of parenting, prior research has typically not accounted for genetic similarities between parents and children, or for interactions between environmental (i.e., parental) and genetic influences. In this paper, we evaluate the possibility of a gene-by-environment (GxE) interaction in the prediction of social competence in school-age children. Using a longitudinal, multi-method dataset from a sample of children adopted at birth (N = 361), we found a significant interaction between birth parent sociability and sensitive, responsive adoptive parenting when predicting child social competence at school entry (age 6), even when controlling for potential confounds. An analysis of the interaction revealed that genetic strengths can buffer the effects of unresponsive parenting. PMID:25581124

Protected areas reduced poverty in Costa Rica and Thailand

PubMed Central

Andam, Kwaw S.; Ferraro, Paul J.; Sims, Katharine R. E.; Healy, Andrew; Holland, Margaret B.

2010-01-01

As global efforts to protect ecosystems expand, the socioeconomic impact of protected areas on neighboring human communities continues to be a source of intense debate. The debate persists because previous studies do not directly measure socioeconomic outcomes and do not use appropriate comparison groups to account for potential confounders. We illustrate an approach using comprehensive national datasets and quasi-experimental matching methods. We estimate impacts of protected area systems on poverty in Costa Rica and Thailand and find that although communities near protected areas are indeed substantially poorer than national averages, an analysis based on comparison with appropriate controls does not support the hypothesis that these differences can be attributed to protected areas. In contrast, the results indicate that the net impact of ecosystem protection was to alleviate poverty. PMID:20498058

Estimating the monetary value of willingness to pay for E-book reader's attributes using partially confounded factorial conjoint choice experiment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yong, Chin-Khian

2013-09-01

A partially confounded factorial conjoint choice experiments design was used to examine the monetary value of the willingness to pay for E-book Reader's attributes. Conjoint analysis is an efficient, cost-effective, and most widely used quantitative method in marketing research to understand consumer preferences and value trade-off. Value can be interpreted by customer or consumer as the received of multiple benefits from a price that was paid. The monetary value of willingness to pay for battery life, internal memory, external memory, screen size, text to Speech, touch screen, and converting handwriting to digital text of E-book reader were estimated in this study. Due to the significant interaction effect of the attributes with the price, the monetary values for the seven attributes were found to be different at different values of odds of purchasing versus not purchasing. The significant interactions effects were one of the main contribution of the partially confounded factorial conjoint choice experiment.

Variability and Correlations in Primary Visual Cortical Neurons Driven by Fixational Eye Movements

PubMed Central

McFarland, James M.; Cumming, Bruce G.

2016-01-01

The ability to distinguish between elements of a sensory neuron's activity that are stimulus independent versus driven by the stimulus is critical for addressing many questions in systems neuroscience. This is typically accomplished by measuring neural responses to repeated presentations of identical stimuli and identifying the trial-variable components of the response as noise. In awake primates, however, small “fixational” eye movements (FEMs) introduce uncontrolled trial-to-trial differences in the visual stimulus itself, potentially confounding this distinction. Here, we describe novel analytical methods that directly quantify the stimulus-driven and stimulus-independent components of visual neuron responses in the presence of FEMs. We apply this approach, combined with precise model-based eye tracking, to recordings from primary visual cortex (V1), finding that standard approaches that ignore FEMs typically miss more than half of the stimulus-driven neural response variance, creating substantial biases in measures of response reliability. We show that these effects are likely not isolated to the particular experimental conditions used here, such as the choice of visual stimulus or spike measurement time window, and thus will be a more general problem for V1 recordings in awake primates. We also demonstrate that measurements of the stimulus-driven and stimulus-independent correlations among pairs of V1 neurons can be greatly biased by FEMs. These results thus illustrate the potentially dramatic impact of FEMs on measures of signal and noise in visual neuron activity and also demonstrate a novel approach for controlling for these eye-movement-induced effects. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Distinguishing between the signal and noise in a sensory neuron's activity is typically accomplished by measuring neural responses to repeated presentations of an identical stimulus. For recordings from the visual cortex of awake animals, small “fixational” eye movements (FEMs) inevitably introduce trial-to-trial variability in the visual stimulus, potentially confounding such measures. Here, we show that FEMs often have a dramatic impact on several important measures of response variability for neurons in primary visual cortex. We also present an analytical approach for quantifying signal and noise in visual neuron activity in the presence of FEMs. These results thus highlight the importance of controlling for FEMs in studies of visual neuron function, and demonstrate novel methods for doing so. PMID:27277801

Disease risk score as a confounder summary method: systematic review and recommendations.

PubMed

Tadrous, Mina; Gagne, Joshua J; Stürmer, Til; Cadarette, Suzanne M

2013-02-01

To systematically examine trends and applications of the disease risk score (DRS) as a confounder summary method. We completed a systematic search of MEDLINE and Web of Science® to identify all English language articles that applied DRS methods. We tabulated the number of publications by year and type (empirical application, methodological contribution, or review paper) and summarized methods used in empirical applications overall and by publication year (<2000, ≥2000). Of 714 unique articles identified, 97 examined DRS methods and 86 were empirical applications. We observed a bimodal distribution in the number of publications over time, with a peak 1979-1980, and resurgence since 2000. The majority of applications with methodological detail derived DRS using logistic regression (47%), used DRS as a categorical variable in regression (93%), and applied DRS in a non-experimental cohort (47%) or case-control (42%) study. Few studies examined effect modification by outcome risk (23%). Use of DRS methods has increased yet remains low. Comparative effectiveness research may benefit from more DRS applications, particularly to examine effect modification by outcome risk. Standardized terminology may facilitate identification, application, and comprehension of DRS methods. More research is needed to support the application of DRS methods, particularly in case-control studies. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Voxel-wise motion artifacts in population-level whole-brain connectivity analysis of resting-state FMRI.

PubMed

Spisák, Tamás; Jakab, András; Kis, Sándor A; Opposits, Gábor; Aranyi, Csaba; Berényi, Ervin; Emri, Miklós

2014-01-01

Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) based brain connectivity analysis maps the functional networks of the brain by estimating the degree of synchronous neuronal activity between brain regions. Recent studies have demonstrated that "resting-state" fMRI-based brain connectivity conclusions may be erroneous when motion artifacts have a differential effect on fMRI BOLD signals for between group comparisons. A potential explanation could be that in-scanner displacement, due to rotational components, is not spatially constant in the whole brain. However, this localized nature of motion artifacts is poorly understood and is rarely considered in brain connectivity studies. In this study, we initially demonstrate the local correspondence between head displacement and the changes in the resting-state fMRI BOLD signal. Than, we investigate how connectivity strength is affected by the population-level variation in the spatial pattern of regional displacement. We introduce Regional Displacement Interaction (RDI), a new covariate parameter set for second-level connectivity analysis and demonstrate its effectiveness in reducing motion related confounds in comparisons of groups with different voxel-vise displacement pattern and preprocessed using various nuisance regression methods. The effect of using RDI as second-level covariate is than demonstrated in autism-related group comparisons. The relationship between the proposed method and some of the prevailing subject-level nuisance regression techniques is evaluated. Our results show that, depending on experimental design, treating in-scanner head motion as a global confound may not be appropriate. The degree of displacement is highly variable among various brain regions, both within and between subjects. These regional differences bias correlation-based measures of brain connectivity. The inclusion of the proposed second-level covariate into the analysis successfully reduces artifactual motion-related group differences and preserves real neuronal differences, as demonstrated by the autism-related comparisons.

Accuracy and the Effect of Possible Subject-Based Confounders of Magnitude-Based MRI for Estimating Hepatic Proton Density Fat Fraction in Adults, Using MR Spectroscopy as Reference

PubMed Central

Heba, Elhamy R.; Desai, Ajinkya; Zand, Kevin A.; Hamilton, Gavin; Wolfson, Tanya; Schlein, Alexandra N.; Gamst, Anthony; Loomba, Rohit; Sirlin, Claude B.; Middleton, Michael S.

2016-01-01

Purpose To determine the accuracy and the effect of possible subject-based confounders of magnitude-based magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for estimating hepatic proton density fat fraction (PDFF) for different numbers of echoes in adults with known or suspected nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, using MR spectroscopy (MRS) as a reference. Materials and Methods In this retrospective analysis of 506 adults, hepatic PDFF was estimated by unenhanced 3.0T MRI, using right-lobe MRS as reference. Regions of interest placed on source images and on six-echo parametric PDFF maps were colocalized to MRS voxel location. Accuracy using different numbers of echoes was assessed by regression and Bland–Altman analysis; slope, intercept, average bias, and R2 were calculated. The effect of age, sex, and body mass index (BMI) on hepatic PDFF accuracy was investigated using multivariate linear regression analyses. Results MRI closely agreed with MRS for all tested methods. For three- to six-echo methods, slope, regression intercept, average bias, and R2 were 1.01–0.99, 0.11–0.62%, 0.24–0.56%, and 0.981–0.982, respectively. Slope was closest to unity for the five-echo method. The two-echo method was least accurate, underestimating PDFF by an average of 2.93%, compared to an average of 0.23–0.69% for the other methods. Statistically significant but clinically nonmeaningful effects on PDFF error were found for subject BMI (P range: 0.0016 to 0.0783), male sex (P range: 0.015 to 0.037), and no statistically significant effect was found for subject age (P range: 0.18–0.24). Conclusion Hepatic magnitude-based MRI PDFF estimates using three, four, five, and six echoes, and six-echo parametric maps are accurate compared to reference MRS values, and that accuracy is not meaningfully confounded by age, sex, or BMI. PMID:26201284

Signal Detection and Monitoring Based on Longitudinal Healthcare Data

PubMed Central

Suling, Marc; Pigeot, Iris

2012-01-01

Post-marketing detection and surveillance of potential safety hazards are crucial tasks in pharmacovigilance. To uncover such safety risks, a wide set of techniques has been developed for spontaneous reporting data and, more recently, for longitudinal data. This paper gives a broad overview of the signal detection process and introduces some types of data sources typically used. The most commonly applied signal detection algorithms are presented, covering simple frequentistic methods like the proportional reporting rate or the reporting odds ratio, more advanced Bayesian techniques for spontaneous and longitudinal data, e.g., the Bayesian Confidence Propagation Neural Network or the Multi-item Gamma-Poisson Shrinker and methods developed for longitudinal data only, like the IC temporal pattern detection. Additionally, the problem of adjustment for underlying confounding is discussed and the most common strategies to automatically identify false-positive signals are addressed. A drug monitoring technique based on Wald’s sequential probability ratio test is presented. For each method, a real-life application is given, and a wide set of literature for further reading is referenced. PMID:24300373

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data.

PubMed

Spelman, Tim; Gray, Orla; Lucas, Robyn; Butzkueven, Helmut

2015-12-09

This report describes a novel Stata-based application of trigonometric regression modelling to 55 years of multiple sclerosis relapse data from 46 clinical centers across 20 countries located in both hemispheres. Central to the success of this method was the strategic use of plot analysis to guide and corroborate the statistical regression modelling. Initial plot analysis was necessary for establishing realistic hypotheses regarding the presence and structural form of seasonal and latitudinal influences on relapse probability and then testing the performance of the resultant models. Trigonometric regression was then necessary to quantify these relationships, adjust for important confounders and provide a measure of certainty as to how plausible these associations were. Synchronization of graphing techniques with regression modelling permitted a systematic refinement of models until best-fit convergence was achieved, enabling novel inferences to be made regarding the independent influence of both season and latitude in predicting relapse onset timing in MS. These methods have the potential for application across other complex disease and epidemiological phenomena suspected or known to vary systematically with season and/or geographic location.

An HMM model for coiled-coil domains and a comparison with PSSM-based predictions.

PubMed

Delorenzi, Mauro; Speed, Terry

2002-04-01

Large-scale sequence data require methods for the automated annotation of protein domains. Many of the predictive methods are based either on a Position Specific Scoring Matrix (PSSM) of fixed length or on a window-less Hidden Markov Model (HMM). The performance of the two approaches is tested for Coiled-Coil Domains (CCDs). The prediction of CCDs is used frequently, and its optimization seems worthwhile. We have conceived MARCOIL, an HMM for the recognition of proteins with a CCD on a genomic scale. A cross-validated study suggests that MARCOIL improves predictions compared to the traditional PSSM algorithm, especially for some protein families and for short CCDs. The study was designed to reveal differences inherent in the two methods. Potential confounding factors such as differences in the dimension of parameter space and in the parameter values were avoided by using the same amino acid propensities and by keeping the transition probabilities of the HMM constant during cross-validation. The prediction program and the databases are available at http://www.wehi.edu.au/bioweb/Mauro/Marcoil

Comparing two periphyton collection methods commonly used for stream bioassessment and the development of numeric nutrient standards.

PubMed

Rodman, Ashley R; Scott, J Thad

2017-07-01

Periphyton is an important component of stream bioassessment, yet methods for quantifying periphyton biomass can differ substantially. A case study within the Arkansas Ozarks is presented to demonstrate the potential for linking chlorophyll-a (chl-a) and ash-free dry mass (AFDM) data sets amassed using two frequently used periphyton sampling protocols. Method A involved collecting periphyton from a known area on the top surface of variably sized rocks gathered from relatively swift-velocity riffles without discerning canopy cover. Method B involved collecting periphyton from the entire top surface of cobbles systematically gathered from riffle-run habitat where canopy cover was intentionally avoided. Chl-a and AFDM measurements were not different between methods (p = 0.123 and p = 0.550, respectively), and there was no interaction between method and time in the repeated measures structure of the study. However, significantly different seasonal distinctions were observed for chl-a and AFDM from all streams when data from the methods were combined (p < 0.001 and p = 0.012, respectively), with greater mean biomass in the cooler sampling months. Seasonal trends were likely the indirect results of varying temperatures. Although the size and range of this study were small, results suggest data sets collected using different methods may effectively be used together with some minor considerations due to potential confounding factors. This study provides motivation for the continued investigation of combining data sets derived from multiple methods of data collection, which could be useful in stream bioassessment and particularly important for the development of regional stream nutrient criteria for the southern Ozarks.

Examination of changes in pathology tests ordered by Diagnosis-Related Group (DRGs) following CPOE introduction.

PubMed

Vecellio, Elia; Georgiou, Andrew; Toouli, George; Eigenstetter, Alex; Li, Ling; Wilson, Roger; Westbrook, Johanna I

2013-01-01

Electronic test ordering, via the Electronic Medical Record (EMR), which incorporates computerised provider order entry (CPOE), is widely considered as a useful tool to support appropriate pathology test ordering. Diagnosis-related groups (DRGs) are clinically meaningful categories that allow comparisons in pathology utilisation by patient groups by controlling for many potentially confounding variables. This study used DRG data linked to pathology test data to examine changes in rates of test ordering across four years coinciding with the introduction of an EMR in six hospitals in New South Wales, Australia. This method generated a list of high pathology utilisation DRGs. We investigated patients with a Chest pain DRG to examine whether tests rates changed for specific test groups by hospital emergency department (ED) pre- and post-EMR. There was little change in testing rates between EDs or between time periods pre- and post-EMR. This is a valuable method for monitoring the impact of EMR and clinical decision support on test order rates.

Natural CMT2 Variation Is Associated With Genome-Wide Methylation Changes and Temperature Seasonality

PubMed Central

Shen, Xia; De Jonge, Jennifer; Forsberg, Simon K. G.; Pettersson, Mats E.; Sheng, Zheya; Hennig, Lars; Carlborg, Örjan

2014-01-01

As Arabidopsis thaliana has colonized a wide range of habitats across the world it is an attractive model for studying the genetic mechanisms underlying environmental adaptation. Here, we used public data from two collections of A. thaliana accessions to associate genetic variability at individual loci with differences in climates at the sampling sites. We use a novel method to screen the genome for plastic alleles that tolerate a broader climate range than the major allele. This approach reduces confounding with population structure and increases power compared to standard genome-wide association methods. Sixteen novel loci were found, including an association between Chromomethylase 2 (CMT2) and temperature seasonality where the genome-wide CHH methylation was different for the group of accessions carrying the plastic allele. Cmt2 mutants were shown to be more tolerant to heat-stress, suggesting genetic regulation of epigenetic modifications as a likely mechanism underlying natural adaptation to variable temperatures, potentially through differential allelic plasticity to temperature-stress. PMID:25503602

Evaluating disease management program effectiveness: an introduction to survival analysis.

PubMed

Linden, Ariel; Adams, John L; Roberts, Nancy

2004-01-01

Currently, the most widely used method in the disease management industry for evaluating program effectiveness is the "total population approach." This model is a pretest-posttest design, with the most basic limitation being that without a control group, there may be sources of bias and/or competing extraneous confounding factors that offer plausible rationale explaining the change from baseline. Survival analysis allows for the inclusion of data from censored cases, those subjects who either "survived" the program without experiencing the event (e.g., achievement of target clinical levels, hospitalization) or left the program prematurely, due to disenrollement from the health plan or program, or were lost to follow-up. Additionally, independent variables may be included in the model to help explain the variability in the outcome measure. In order to maximize the potential of this statistical method, validity of the model and research design must be assured. This paper reviews survival analysis as an alternative, and more appropriate, approach to evaluating DM program effectiveness than the current total population approach.

Bacterial genomes in epidemiology—present and future

PubMed Central

Croucher, Nicholas J.; Harris, Simon R.; Grad, Yonatan H.; Hanage, William P.

2013-01-01

Sequence data are well established in the reconstruction of the phylogenetic and demographic scenarios that have given rise to outbreaks of viral pathogens. The application of similar methods to bacteria has been hindered in the main by the lack of high-resolution nucleotide sequence data from quality samples. Developing and already available genomic methods have greatly increased the amount of data that can be used to characterize an isolate and its relationship to others. However, differences in sequencing platforms and data analysis mean that these enhanced data come with a cost in terms of portability: results from one laboratory may not be directly comparable with those from another. Moreover, genomic data for many bacteria bear the mark of a history including extensive recombination, which has the potential to greatly confound phylogenetic and coalescent analyses. Here, we discuss the exacting requirements of genomic epidemiology, and means by which the distorting signal of recombination can be minimized to permit the leverage of growing datasets of genomic data from bacterial pathogens. PMID:23382424

Success Providing Postpartum Intrauterine Devices in Private-Sector Health Care Facilities in Nigeria: Factors Associated With Uptake

PubMed Central

Eluwa, George IE; Atamewalen, Ronke; Odogwu, Kingsley; Ahonsi, Babatunde

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Background: Use of modern contraceptive methods in Nigeria remained at 10% between 2008 and 2013 despite substantive investments in family planning services. Many women in their first postpartum year, in particular, have an unmet need for family planning. We evaluated use of postpartum intrauterine device (IUD) insertion and determined factors associated with its uptake in Nigeria. Methods: Data were collected between May 2014 and February 2015 from 11 private health care facilities in 6 southern Nigerian states. Women attending antenatal care in participating facilities were counseled on all available contraceptive methods including the postpartum IUD. Data were abstracted from participating facility records and evaluated using a cross-sectional analysis. Categorical variables were calculated as proportions while continuous variables were calculated as medians with the associated interquartile range (IQR). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with uptake of the postpartum IUD while controlling for potential confounding factors, including age, educational attainment, marital status, parity, number of living children, and previous use of contraception. Results: During the study period, 728 women delivered in the 11 facilities. The median age was 28 years, and most women were educated (73% had completed at least the secondary level). The majority (96%) of the women reported they were married, and the median number of living children was 3 (IQR, 2–4). Uptake of the postpartum IUD was 41% (n = 300), with 8% (n = 25) of the acceptors experiencing expulsion of the IUD within 6 weeks post-insertion. After controlling for potential confounding factors, several characteristics were associated with greater likelihood of choosing the postpartum IUD, including lower education, having a higher number of living children, and being single. Women who had used contraceptives previously were less likely to choose the postpartum IUD than women who had not previously used contraception (adjusted odds ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.55 to 0.84). Conclusion: A high percentage (41%) of women delivering in private health care facilities in southern Nigeria accepted immediate postpartum IUD insertion. Scale-up of postpartum IUD services is a promising approach to increasing uptake of long-acting reversible contraceptives among women in Nigeria. PMID:27353620

Case-control vaccine effectiveness studies: Data collection, analysis and reporting results.

PubMed

Verani, Jennifer R; Baqui, Abdullah H; Broome, Claire V; Cherian, Thomas; Cohen, Cheryl; Farrar, Jennifer L; Feikin, Daniel R; Groome, Michelle J; Hajjeh, Rana A; Johnson, Hope L; Madhi, Shabir A; Mulholland, Kim; O'Brien, Katherine L; Parashar, Umesh D; Patel, Manish M; Rodrigues, Laura C; Santosham, Mathuram; Scott, J Anthony; Smith, Peter G; Sommerfelt, Halvor; Tate, Jacqueline E; Victor, J Chris; Whitney, Cynthia G; Zaidi, Anita K; Zell, Elizabeth R

2017-06-05

The case-control methodology is frequently used to evaluate vaccine effectiveness post-licensure. The results of such studies provide important insight into the level of protection afforded by vaccines in a 'real world' context, and are commonly used to guide vaccine policy decisions. However, the potential for bias and confounding are important limitations to this method, and the results of a poorly conducted or incorrectly interpreted case-control study can mislead policies. In 2012, a group of experts met to review recent experience with case-control studies evaluating vaccine effectiveness; we summarize the recommendations of that group regarding best practices for data collection, analysis, and presentation of the results of case-control vaccine effectiveness studies. Vaccination status is the primary exposure of interest, but can be challenging to assess accurately and with minimal bias. Investigators should understand factors associated with vaccination as well as the availability of documented vaccination status in the study context; case-control studies may not be a valid method for evaluating vaccine effectiveness in settings where many children lack a documented immunization history. To avoid bias, it is essential to use the same methods and effort gathering vaccination data from cases and controls. Variables that may confound the association between illness and vaccination are also important to capture as completely as possible, and where relevant, adjust for in the analysis according to the analytic plan. In presenting results from case-control vaccine effectiveness studies, investigators should describe enrollment among eligible cases and controls as well as the proportion with no documented vaccine history. Emphasis should be placed on confidence intervals, rather than point estimates, of vaccine effectiveness. Case-control studies are a useful approach for evaluating vaccine effectiveness; however careful attention must be paid to the collection, analysis and presentation of the data in order to best inform evidence-based vaccine policies. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

CoAIMs: A Cost-Effective Panel of Ancestry Informative Markers for Determining Continental Origins

PubMed Central

Londin, Eric R.; Keller, Margaret A.; Maista, Cathleen; Smith, Gretchen; Mamounas, Laura A.; Zhang, Ran; Madore, Steven J.; Gwinn, Katrina; Corriveau, Roderick A.

2010-01-01

Background Genetic ancestry is known to impact outcomes of genotype-phenotype studies that are designed to identify risk for common diseases in human populations. Failure to control for population stratification due to genetic ancestry can significantly confound results of disease association studies. Moreover, ancestry is a critical factor in assessing lifetime risk of disease, and can play an important role in optimizing treatment. As modern medicine moves towards using personal genetic information for clinical applications, it is important to determine genetic ancestry in an accurate, cost-effective and efficient manner. Self-identified race is a common method used to track and control for population stratification; however, social constructs of race are not necessarily informative for genetic applications. The use of ancestry informative markers (AIMs) is a more accurate method for determining genetic ancestry for the purposes of population stratification. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we introduce a novel panel of 36 microsatellite (MSAT) AIMs that determines continental admixture proportions. This panel, which we have named Continental Ancestry Informative Markers or CoAIMs, consists of MSAT AIMs that were chosen based upon their measure of genetic variance (Fst), allele frequencies and their suitability for efficient genotyping. Genotype analysis using CoAIMs along with a Bayesian clustering method (STRUCTURE) is able to discern continental origins including Europe/Middle East (Caucasians), East Asia, Africa, Native America, and Oceania. In addition to determining continental ancestry for individuals without significant admixture, we applied CoAIMs to ascertain admixture proportions of individuals of self declared race. Conclusion/Significance CoAIMs can be used to efficiently and effectively determine continental admixture proportions in a sample set. The CoAIMs panel is a valuable resource for genetic researchers performing case-control genetic association studies, as it can control for the confounding effects of population stratification. The MSAT-based approach used here has potential for broad applicability as a cost effective tool toward determining admixture proportions. PMID:20976178

Effects of psychosocial work factors on lifestyle changes: a cohort study.

PubMed

Allard, Karin Olofsson; Thomsen, Jane Frølund; Mikkelsen, Sigurd; Rugulies, Reiner; Mors, Ole; Kærgaard, Anette; Kolstad, Henrik A; Kaerlev, Linda; Andersen, Johan Hviid; Hansen, Ase Marie; Bonde, Jens Peter

2011-12-01

To evaluate the effect of the demand-control-support model, the effort-reward imbalance model, and emotional demands on smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and body mass index. This is a 2-year prospective cohort study of 3224 public sector employees. Measures were assessed with questionnaires. Multiple regression analyses were used to predict changes in lifestyle factors. Low reward predicted smoking, low-decision latitude predicted being inactive, and high demands predicted high-alcohol consumption but only for men at follow-up even after controlling for potential confounders. There were no other significant findings in the expected direction except for some of the confounders. We found only limited and inconsistent support for the hypothesis that a poor psychosocial work environment is associated with an adverse lifestyle.

Perceived Discrimination among African American Adolescents and Allostatic Load: A Longitudinal Analysis with Buffering Effects

PubMed Central

Brody, Gene H.; Lei, Man-Kit; Chae, David H.; Yu, Tianyi; Kogan, Steven M.; Beach, Steven R. H.

2013-01-01

This study was designed to examine the prospective relations of perceived racial discrimination with allostatic load (AL), along with a possible buffer of the association. A sample of 331 African Americans in the rural South provided assessments of perceived discrimination from ages 16 to 18 years. When youths were 18, caregivers reported parental emotional support, and youths assessed peer emotional support. AL and potential confounder variables were assessed when youths were 20. Latent Growth Mixture Modeling identified two perceived discrimination classes: high and stable and low and increasing. Adolescents in the high and stable class evinced heightened AL even with confounder variables controlled. The racial discrimination to AL link was not significant for young adults who received high emotional support. PMID:24673162

The association between anthropometric measures and lung function in a population-based study of Canadian adults.

PubMed

Rowe, A; Hernandez, P; Kuhle, S; Kirkland, S

2017-10-01

Decreased lung function has health impacts beyond diagnosable lung disease. It is therefore important to understand the factors that may influence even small changes in lung function including obesity, physical fitness and physical activity. The aim of this study was to determine the anthropometric measure most useful in examining the association with lung function and to determine how physical activity and physical fitness influence this association. The current study used cross-sectional data on 4662 adults aged 40-79 years from the Canadian Health Measures Survey Cycles 1 and 2. Linear regression models were used to examine the association between the anthropometric and lung function measures (forced expiratory volume in 1 s [FEV 1 ] and forced vital capacity [FVC]); R 2 values were compared among models. Physical fitness and physical activity terms were added to the models and potential confounding was assessed. Models using sum of 5 skinfolds and waist circumference consistently had the highest R 2 values for FEV 1 and FVC, while models using body mass index consistently had among the lowest R 2 values for FEV 1 and FVC and for men and women. Physical activity and physical fitness were confounders of the relationships between waist circumference and the lung function measures. Waist circumference remained a significant predictor of FVC but not FEV 1 after adjustment for physical activity or physical fitness. Waist circumference is an important predictor of lung function. Physical activity and physical fitness should be considered as potential confounders of the relationship between anthropometric measures and lung function. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Keeping children safe at home: protocol for three matched case–control studies of modifiable risk factors for falls

PubMed Central

Kendrick, Denise; Stewart, Jane; Clacy, Rose; Coffey, Frank; Cooper, Nicola; Coupland, Carol; Hayes, Mike; McColl, Elaine; Reading, Richard; Sutton, Alex; M L Towner, Elizabeth; Craig Watson, Michael

2012-01-01

Background Childhood falls result in considerable morbidity, mortality and health service use. Despite this, little evidence exists on protective factors or effective falls prevention interventions in young children. Objectives To estimate ORs for three types of medically attended fall injuries in young children in relation to safety equipment, safety behaviours and hazard reduction and explore differential effects by child and family factors and injury severity. Design Three multicentre case–control studies in UK hospitals with validation of parental reported exposures using home observations. Cases are aged 0–4 years with a medically attended fall injury occurring at home, matched on age and sex with community controls. Children attending hospital for other types of injury will serve as unmatched hospital controls. Matched analyses will use conditional logistic regression to adjust for potential confounding variables. Unmatched analyses will use unconditional logistic regression, adjusted for age, sex, deprivation and distance from hospital in addition to other confounders. Each study requires 496 cases and 1984 controls to detect an OR of 0.7, with 80% power, 5% significance level, a correlation between cases and controls of 0.1 and a range of exposure prevalences. Main outcome measures Falls on stairs, on one level and from furniture. Discussion As the largest in the field to date, these case control studies will adjust for potential confounders, validate measures of exposure and investigate modifiable risk factors for specific falls injury mechanisms. Findings should enhance the evidence base for falls prevention for young children. PMID:22628151

Non-alcoholic beverage and caffeine consumption and mortality: the Leisure World Cohort Study.

PubMed

Paganini-Hill, Annlia; Kawas, Claudia H; Corrada, María M

2007-04-01

To examine the effects of non-alcoholic beverage and caffeine consumption on all-cause mortality in older adults. The Leisure World Cohort Study is a prospective study of residents of a California retirement community. A baseline postal health survey included details on coffee, tea, milk, soft drink, and chocolate consumption. Participants were followed for 23 years (1981-2004). Risk ratios (RRs) of death were calculated using Cox regression for 8644 women and 4980 men (median age at entry, 74 years) and adjusted for age, gender, and multiple potential confounders. Caffeine consumption exhibited a U-shaped mortality curve. Moderate caffeine consumers had a significantly reduced risk of death (multivariable-adjusted RR=0.94, 95% CI: 0.89, 0.99 for 100-199 mg/day and RR=0.90, 95% CI: 0.85, 0.94 for 200-399 mg/day compared with those consuming <50 mg/day). Individuals who drank more than 1 can/week of artificially sweetened (but not sugar-sweetened) soft drink (cola and other) had an 8% increased risk (95% CI: 1.01-1.16). Neither milk nor tea had a significant effect on mortality after multivariable adjustment. Moderate caffeine consumption appeared beneficial in reducing risk of death. Attenuation in the observed associations between mortality and intake of tea and milk with adjustment for potential confounders suggests that such consumption identifies those with other mortality-associated lifestyle and health risks. The increased death risk with consumption of artificially sweetened, but not sugar-sweetened, soft drinks suggests an effect of the sweetener rather than other components of the soft drinks, although residual confounding remains a possibility.

Accelerated cognitive decline in a rodent model for temporal lobe epilepsy.

PubMed

Schipper, Sandra; Aalbers, Marlien W; Rijkers, Kim; Lagiere, Melanie; Bogaarts, Jan G; Blokland, Arjan; Klinkenberg, Sylvia; Hoogland, Govert; Vles, Johan S H

2016-12-01

Cognitive impairment is frequently observed in patients with temporal lobe epilepsy. It is hypothesized that cumulative seizure exposure causes accelerated cognitive decline in patients with epilepsy. We investigated the influence of seizure frequency on cognitive decline in a rodent model for temporal lobe epilepsy. Neurobehavioral assessment was performed before and after surgery, after the induction of self-sustaining limbic status epilepticus (SSLSE), and in the chronic phase in which rats experienced recurrent seizures. Furthermore, we assessed potential confounders of memory performance. Rats showed a deficit in spatial working memory after the induction of the SSLSE, which endured in the chronic phase. A progressive decline in recognition memory developed in SSLSE rats. Confounding factors were absent. Seizure frequency and also the severity of the status epilepticus were not correlated with the severity of cognitive deficits. The effect of the seizure frequency on cognitive comorbidity in epilepsy has long been debated, possibly because of confounders such as antiepileptic medication and the heterogeneity of epileptic etiologies. In an animal model of temporal lobe epilepsy, we showed that a decrease in spatial working memory does not relate to the seizure frequency. This suggests for other mechanisms are responsible for memory decline and potentially a common pathophysiology of cognitive deterioration and the occurrence and development of epileptic seizures. Identifying this common denominator will allow development of more targeted interventions treating cognitive decline in patients with epilepsy. The treatment of interictal symptoms will increase the quality of life of many patients with epilepsy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Associations between poor sleep quality and psychosocial stress with obesity in reproductive-age women of lower socioeconomic status.

PubMed

Tom, Sarah E; Berenson, Abbey B

2013-01-01

Prior studies have not examined the role of psychosocial stress in the relationship between poor sleep quality and obesity among women of lower socioeconomic status (SES). We tested the following hypotheses in a sample of reproductive-age women of lower SES: 1) Poor sleep quality is related to increased risk of obesity, and 2) psychosocial stress confounds this association between poor sleep quality and obesity. A total of 927 women age 16 to 40 years attending public health clinics in Southeastern Texas provided information on the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index and sociodemographic and health characteristics, including the Perceived Stress Scale. Height, weight, and waist circumference (WC) were measured in clinic. A series of models examined the associations between sleep disturbance, perceived stress, and weight outcomes, accounting for potential confounding factors. Nearly 30% of women were overweight, and 35% were obese. Half of women had a WC of greater than 35 inches. Most women had poor sleep quality and high levels of stress. Sleep quality and perceived stress were not related to body mass index category or WC in models that adjusted for age and race/ethnicity. Adjusting for potential confounding factors did not alter results. Perceived stress did not modify the association between sleep quality and weight outcomes. Poor sleep quality and psychosocial stress were not related to weight in reproductive-aged women of lower SES. However, poor sleep quality, high stress, overweight, and obesity were common in this group. Copyright © 2013 Jacobs Institute of Women's Health. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigation of Chemical Exchange at Intermediate Exchange Rates using a Combination of Chemical Exchange Saturation Transfer (CEST) and Spin-Locking methods (CESTrho)

PubMed Central

Kogan, Feliks; Singh, Anup; Cai, Keija; Haris, Mohammad; Hariharan, Hari; Reddy, Ravinder

2011-01-01

Proton exchange imaging is important as it allows for visualization and quantification of the distribution of specific metabolites with conventional MRI. Current exchange mediated MRI methods suffer from poor contrast as well as confounding factors that influence exchange rates. In this study we developed a new method to measure proton exchange which combines chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) and T1ρ magnetization preparation methods (CESTrho). We demonstrated that this new CESTrho sequence can detect proton exchange in the slow to intermediate exchange regimes. It has a linear dependence on proton concentration which allows it to be used to quantitatively measure changes in metabolite concentration. Additionally, the magnetization scheme of this new method can be customized to make it insensitive to changes in exchange rate while retaining its dependency on solute concentration. Finally, we showed the feasibility of using CESTrho in vivo. This sequence is able to detect proton exchange at intermediate exchange rates and is unaffected by the confounding factors that influence proton exchange rates thus making it ideal for the measurement of metabolites with exchangeable protons in this exchange regime. PMID:22009759

Improving detection of copy-number variation by simultaneous bias correction and read-depth segmentation.

PubMed

Szatkiewicz, Jin P; Wang, WeiBo; Sullivan, Patrick F; Wang, Wei; Sun, Wei

2013-02-01

Structural variation is an important class of genetic variation in mammals. High-throughput sequencing (HTS) technologies promise to revolutionize copy-number variation (CNV) detection but present substantial analytic challenges. Converging evidence suggests that multiple types of CNV-informative data (e.g. read-depth, read-pair, split-read) need be considered, and that sophisticated methods are needed for more accurate CNV detection. We observed that various sources of experimental biases in HTS confound read-depth estimation, and note that bias correction has not been adequately addressed by existing methods. We present a novel read-depth-based method, GENSENG, which uses a hidden Markov model and negative binomial regression framework to identify regions of discrete copy-number changes while simultaneously accounting for the effects of multiple confounders. Based on extensive calibration using multiple HTS data sets, we conclude that our method outperforms existing read-depth-based CNV detection algorithms. The concept of simultaneous bias correction and CNV detection can serve as a basis for combining read-depth with other types of information such as read-pair or split-read in a single analysis. A user-friendly and computationally efficient implementation of our method is freely available.

The same analysis approach: Practical protection against the pitfalls of novel neuroimaging analysis methods.

PubMed

Görgen, Kai; Hebart, Martin N; Allefeld, Carsten; Haynes, John-Dylan

2017-12-27

Standard neuroimaging data analysis based on traditional principles of experimental design, modelling, and statistical inference is increasingly complemented by novel analysis methods, driven e.g. by machine learning methods. While these novel approaches provide new insights into neuroimaging data, they often have unexpected properties, generating a growing literature on possible pitfalls. We propose to meet this challenge by adopting a habit of systematic testing of experimental design, analysis procedures, and statistical inference. Specifically, we suggest to apply the analysis method used for experimental data also to aspects of the experimental design, simulated confounds, simulated null data, and control data. We stress the importance of keeping the analysis method the same in main and test analyses, because only this way possible confounds and unexpected properties can be reliably detected and avoided. We describe and discuss this Same Analysis Approach in detail, and demonstrate it in two worked examples using multivariate decoding. With these examples, we reveal two sources of error: A mismatch between counterbalancing (crossover designs) and cross-validation which leads to systematic below-chance accuracies, and linear decoding of a nonlinear effect, a difference in variance. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigation of chemical exchange at intermediate exchange rates using a combination of chemical exchange saturation transfer (CEST) and spin-locking methods (CESTrho).

PubMed

Kogan, Feliks; Singh, Anup; Cai, Keija; Haris, Mohammad; Hariharan, Hari; Reddy, Ravinder

2012-07-01

Proton exchange imaging is important as it allows for visualization and quantification of the distribution of specific metabolites with conventional MRI. Current exchange mediated MRI methods suffer from poor contrast as well as confounding factors that influence exchange rates. In this study we developed a new method to measure proton exchange which combines chemical exchange saturation transfer and T(1)(ρ) magnetization preparation methods (CESTrho). We demonstrated that this new CESTrho sequence can detect proton exchange in the slow to intermediate exchange regimes. It has a linear dependence on proton concentration which allows it to be used to quantitatively measure changes in metabolite concentration. Additionally, the magnetization scheme of this new method can be customized to make it insensitive to changes in exchange rate while retaining its dependency on solute concentration. Finally, we showed the feasibility of using CESTrho in vivo. This sequence is able to detect proton exchange at intermediate exchange rates and is unaffected by the confounding factors that influence proton exchange rates thus making it ideal for the measurement of metabolites with exchangeable protons in this exchange regime. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Cognitively-Impaired-Not-Demented Status Moderates the Time-Varying Association between Finger Tapping Inconsistency and Executive Performance.

PubMed

Halliday, Drew W R; Stawski, Robert S; MacDonald, Stuart W S

2017-02-01

Response time inconsistency (RTI) in cognitive performance predicts deleterious health outcomes in late-life; however, RTI estimates are often confounded by additional influences (e.g., individual differences in learning). Finger tapping is a basic sensorimotor measure largely independent of higher-order cognition that may circumvent such confounds of RTI estimates. We examined the within-person coupling of finger-tapping mean and RTI on working memory, and the moderation of these associations by cognitive status. A total of 262 older adults were recruited and classified as controls, cognitively-impaired-not-demented (CIND) unstable or CIND stable. Participants completed finger-tapping and working-memory tasks during multiple weekly assessments, repeated annually for 4 years. Within-person coupling estimates from multilevel models indicated that on occasions when RTI was greater, working-memory response latency was slower for the CIND-stable, but not for the CIND-unstable or control individuals. The finger-tapping task shows potential for minimizing confounds on RTI estimates, and for yielding RTI estimates sensitive to central nervous system function and cognitive status. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Success Providing Postpartum Intrauterine Devices in Private-Sector Health Care Facilities in Nigeria: Factors Associated With Uptake.

PubMed

Eluwa, George Ie; Atamewalen, Ronke; Odogwu, Kingsley; Ahonsi, Babatunde

2016-06-20

Use of modern contraceptive methods in Nigeria remained at 10% between 2008 and 2013 despite substantive investments in family planning services. Many women in their first postpartum year, in particular, have an unmet need for family planning. We evaluated use of postpartum intrauterine device (IUD) insertion and determined factors associated with its uptake in Nigeria. Data were collected between May 2014 and February 2015 from 11 private health care facilities in 6 southern Nigerian states. Women attending antenatal care in participating facilities were counseled on all available contraceptive methods including the postpartum IUD. Data were abstracted from participating facility records and evaluated using a cross-sectional analysis. Categorical variables were calculated as proportions while continuous variables were calculated as medians with the associated interquartile range (IQR). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with uptake of the postpartum IUD while controlling for potential confounding factors, including age, educational attainment, marital status, parity, number of living children, and previous use of contraception. During the study period, 728 women delivered in the 11 facilities. The median age was 28 years, and most women were educated (73% had completed at least the secondary level). The majority (96%) of the women reported they were married, and the median number of living children was 3 (IQR, 2-4). Uptake of the postpartum IUD was 41% (n = 300), with 8% (n = 25) of the acceptors experiencing expulsion of the IUD within 6 weeks post-insertion. After controlling for potential confounding factors, several characteristics were associated with greater likelihood of choosing the postpartum IUD, including lower education, having a higher number of living children, and being single. Women who had used contraceptives previously were less likely to choose the postpartum IUD than women who had not previously used contraception (adjusted odds ratio, 0.68; 95% confidence interval, 0.55 to 0.84). A high percentage (41%) of women delivering in private health care facilities in southern Nigeria accepted immediate postpartum IUD insertion. Scale-up of postpartum IUD services is a promising approach to increasing uptake of long-acting reversible contraceptives among women in Nigeria. © Eluwa et al.

The Mantel-Haenszel procedure revisited: models and generalizations.

PubMed

Fidler, Vaclav; Nagelkerke, Nico

2013-01-01

Several statistical methods have been developed for adjusting the Odds Ratio of the relation between two dichotomous variables X and Y for some confounders Z. With the exception of the Mantel-Haenszel method, commonly used methods, notably binary logistic regression, are not symmetrical in X and Y. The classical Mantel-Haenszel method however only works for confounders with a limited number of discrete strata, which limits its utility, and appears to have no basis in statistical models. Here we revisit the Mantel-Haenszel method and propose an extension to continuous and vector valued Z. The idea is to replace the observed cell entries in strata of the Mantel-Haenszel procedure by subject specific classification probabilities for the four possible values of (X,Y) predicted by a suitable statistical model. For situations where X and Y can be treated symmetrically we propose and explore the multinomial logistic model. Under the homogeneity hypothesis, which states that the odds ratio does not depend on Z, the logarithm of the odds ratio estimator can be expressed as a simple linear combination of three parameters of this model. Methods for testing the homogeneity hypothesis are proposed. The relationship between this method and binary logistic regression is explored. A numerical example using survey data is presented.

The Mantel-Haenszel Procedure Revisited: Models and Generalizations

PubMed Central

Fidler, Vaclav; Nagelkerke, Nico

2013-01-01

Several statistical methods have been developed for adjusting the Odds Ratio of the relation between two dichotomous variables X and Y for some confounders Z. With the exception of the Mantel-Haenszel method, commonly used methods, notably binary logistic regression, are not symmetrical in X and Y. The classical Mantel-Haenszel method however only works for confounders with a limited number of discrete strata, which limits its utility, and appears to have no basis in statistical models. Here we revisit the Mantel-Haenszel method and propose an extension to continuous and vector valued Z. The idea is to replace the observed cell entries in strata of the Mantel-Haenszel procedure by subject specific classification probabilities for the four possible values of (X,Y) predicted by a suitable statistical model. For situations where X and Y can be treated symmetrically we propose and explore the multinomial logistic model. Under the homogeneity hypothesis, which states that the odds ratio does not depend on Z, the logarithm of the odds ratio estimator can be expressed as a simple linear combination of three parameters of this model. Methods for testing the homogeneity hypothesis are proposed. The relationship between this method and binary logistic regression is explored. A numerical example using survey data is presented. PMID:23516463

Mentoring in Business and Industry: The Need for a Phenomenological Perspective

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gibson, Sharon K.

2004-01-01

Determining the potential benefits of mentoring is confounded by the lack of clarity surrounding the definition of mentoring in business and industry. Key dimensions of mentoring that are affected by the way in which mentoring is defined are explored, including prevalence, outcomes, gender and formal/informal relationships. This definitional…

Bias Reduction in Quasi-Experiments with Little Selection Theory but Many Covariates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Steiner, Peter M.; Cook, Thomas D.; Li, Wei; Clark, M. H.

2015-01-01

In observational studies, selection bias will be completely removed only if the selection mechanism is ignorable, namely, all confounders of treatment selection and potential outcomes are reliably measured. Ideally, well-grounded substantive theories about the selection process and outcome-generating model are used to generate the sample of…

Relationships between Substance Use and Depressive Symptoms: A Longitudinal Study of Australian Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scholes-Balog, Kirsty E.; Hemphill, Sheryl A.; Patton, George C.; Toumbourou, John W.

2015-01-01

This study examined longitudinal relationships between depressive symptoms and use of alcohol, cigarettes, and illicit substances among adolescents, addressing methodological limitations and potential confounding in the extant literature. The sample comprised adolescents who were surveyed in Grades 6 (n = 916), 9 (n = 804), and 11 (n = 791).…

Fortune Is Fickle: Null-Effects of Disfluency on Learning Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rummer, Ralf; Schweppe, Judith; Schwede, Annett

2016-01-01

Recently, Diemand-Yauman et al. "Cognition," 118, 114-118 (2011) demonstrated that learning with disfluent (hard-to-read) materials is more effective than learning with easy-to-read materials--a study that has since stipulated a number of follow-up studies (with mixed results). However, there is a potential confound in the original…

Long-Term Positive Associations between Music Lessons and IQ

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schellenberg, E. Glenn

2006-01-01

In Study 1 (N = 147), duration of music lessons was correlated positively with IQ and with academic ability among 6-to 11-year-olds, even when potential confounding variables (i.e., family income, parents' education, involvement in nonmusical activities) were held constant. In Study 2 (N = 150), similar but weaker associations between playing…

Is Childhood Physical Abuse Associated with Peptic Ulcer Disease? Findings from a Population-Based Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fuller-Thomson, Esme; Bottoms, Jennifer; Brennenstuhl, Sarah; Hurd, Marion

2011-01-01

This study investigated childhood physical abuse and ulcers in a regionally representative community sample. Age, race and sex were controlled for in addition to five clusters of potentially confounding factors: adverse childhood conditions, adult socioeconomic status, current health behaviors, current stress and marital status, and history of…

Effect of macronutrients and fiber on postprandial glycemic responses and meal glycemic index and glycemic load value determinations

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Introduction: Meal or dietary glycemic index (GI) and glycemic load (GL) values from dietary questionnaires are calculated using GI values of individual foods and for GL after adjusting for serving size. Partially unaddressed is the potential confounding effect of different amounts and proportions o...

Land surface controls on afternoon precipitation diagnosed from observational data: Uncertainties and confounding factors

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The feedback between soil moisture and precipitation has long been a topic of interest due to its potential for improving weather and seasonal forecasts. The generally proposed mechanism assumes a control of soil moisture on precipitation via the partitioning of the surface fluxes (the Evaporative F...

Later Start, Longer Sleep: Implications of Middle School Start Times

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Temkin, Deborah A.; Princiotta, Daniel; Ryberg, Renee; Lewin, Daniel S.

2018-01-01

Background: Although adolescents generally get less than the recommended 9 hours of sleep per night, research and effort to delay school start times have generally focused on high schools. This study assesses the relation between school start times and sleep in middle school students while accounting for potentially confounding demographic…

Teachers' Perceptions of Students' Mathematics Proficiency May Exacerbate Early Gender Gaps in Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Robinson-Cimpian, Joseph P.; Lubienski, Sarah Theule; Ganley, Colleen M.; Copur-Gencturk, Yasemin

2014-01-01

A recent wave of research suggests that teachers overrate the performance of girls relative to boys and hold more positive attitudes toward girls' mathematics abilities. However, these prior estimates of teachers' supposed female bias are potentially misleading because these estimates (and teachers themselves) confound achievement with teachers'…

Does Pollution Increase School Absences? NBER Working Paper No. 13252

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Currie, Janet; Hanushek, Eric; Kahn, E. Megan; Neidell, Matthew; Rivkin, Steven

2007-01-01

We examine the effect of air pollution on school absences using unique administrative data for elementary and middle school children in the 39 largest school districts in Texas. These data are merged with information from monitors maintained by the Environmental Protection Agency. To control for potentially confounding factors, we adopt a…

Adolescent Substance Use, Sleep, and Academic Achievement: Evidence of Harm Due to Caffeine

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

James, Jack E.; Kristjansson, Alfgeir Logi; Sigfusdottir, Inga Dora

2011-01-01

Using academic achievement as the key outcome variable, 7377 Icelandic adolescents were surveyed for cigarette smoking, alcohol use, daytime sleepiness, caffeine use, and potential confounders. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to examine direct and indirect effects of measured and latent variables in two models: the first with caffeine…

Case Report: Septicemic Plague in a Community Hospital in California

PubMed Central

Margolis, David A.; Burns, Joseph; Reed, Sharon L.; Ginsberg, Michele M.; O’Grady, Terrence C.; Vinetz, Joseph M.

2009-01-01

Diagnosis of a case of septicemic plague acquired in rural California was delayed because of a series of confounding events, resulting in concern about reliance on community hospitals as sentinels for detecting potential bioterrorism-related events. An epizootic study confirmed the peri-domestic source of Yersinia pestis infection. PMID:18541761

Cesarean section without medical indication and risk of childhood asthma, and attenuation by breastfeeding.

PubMed

Chu, Shuyuan; Chen, Qian; Chen, Yan; Bao, Yixiao; Wu, Min; Zhang, Jun

2017-01-01

Previous studies suggest that caesarean section (CS) may increase the risk of asthma in children, but none of them could preclude potential confounding effects of underlying medical indications for CS. We aim to assess the association between CS itself (without medical indications) and risk of childhood asthma. We conducted a hospital-based case-control study on childhood asthma with 573 cases and 812 controls in Shanghai. Unconditional logistic regression models in SAS were employed to control for potential confounders. Our study found that CS without medical indication was significantly associated with elevated asthma risk (adjusted OR = 1.58 [95% CI 1.17-2.13]). However, this risk was attenuated in children fed by exclusive breastfeeding in the first six months after birth (adjusted OR = 1.39 [95% CI 0.92-2.10]). In contrast, the risk was more prominent in children with non-exclusive breastfeeding or bottle feeding (adjusted OR = 1.91 [95% CI 1.22-2.99]). CS without medical indication was associated with an increased risk of childhood asthma. Exclusive breastfeeding in infancy may attenuate this risk.

The relationship between frequency of family dinner and adolescent problem behaviors after adjusting for other family characteristics.

PubMed

Sen, Bisakha

2010-02-01

To examine the association between frequency of family dinners (FFD) and selected problem behaviors for adolescents after adjusting for family connectedness, parental awareness, other family activities, and other potentially confounding factors. Data are drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997. The primary variable of interest is self-reported FFD in a typical week. Problem behaviors studied are substance-use, physical violence, property-destruction, stealing, running away from home, andgang membership. Multivariate logistic models are estimated for each behaviors. Linear regression models are estimated for behavior-frequency for the sub-samples engaging in them. Analysis is done separately by gender. FFD is negatively associated with substance-use and running away for females; drinking, physical violence, property-destruction, stealing and running away for males. Family meals are negatively associated to certain problem behaviors for adolescents even after controlling rigorously for potentially confounding factors. Thus, programs that promote family meals are beneficial. Copyright (c) 2009 The Association for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Assessing the impact of nano- and micro-scale zerovalent iron particles on soil microbial activities: particle reactivity interferes with assay conditions and interpretation of genuine microbial effects.

PubMed

Cullen, Laurence G; Tilston, Emma L; Mitchell, Geoff R; Collins, Chris D; Shaw, Liz J

2011-03-01

The effects of nano-scale and micro-scale zerovalent iron (nZVI and mZVI) particles on general (dehydrogenase and hydrolase) and specific (ammonia oxidation potential, AOP) activities mediated by the microbial community in an uncontaminated soil were examined. nZVI (diameter 12.5 nm; 10 mg g⁻¹ soil) apparently inhibited AOP and nZVI and mZVI apparently stimulated dehydrogenase activity but had minimal influence on hydrolase activity. Sterile experiments revealed that the apparent inhibition of AOP could not be interpreted as such due to the confounding action of the particles, whereas, the nZVI-enhanced dehydrogenase activity could represent the genuine response of a stimulated microbial population or an artifact of ZVI reactivity. Overall, there was no evidence for negative effects of nZVI or mZVI on the processes studied. When examining the impact of redox active particles such as ZVI on microbial oxidation-reduction reactions, potential confounding effects of the test particles on assay conditions should be considered. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Interrupted time-series analysis: studying trends in neurosurgery.

PubMed

Wong, Ricky H; Smieliauskas, Fabrice; Pan, I-Wen; Lam, Sandi K

2015-12-01

OBJECT Neurosurgery studies traditionally have evaluated the effects of interventions on health care outcomes by studying overall changes in measured outcomes over time. Yet, this type of linear analysis is limited due to lack of consideration of the trend's effects both pre- and postintervention and the potential for confounding influences. The aim of this study was to illustrate interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA) as applied to an example in the neurosurgical literature and highlight ITSA's potential for future applications. METHODS The methods used in previous neurosurgical studies were analyzed and then compared with the methodology of ITSA. RESULTS The ITSA method was identified in the neurosurgical literature as an important technique for isolating the effect of an intervention (such as a policy change or a quality and safety initiative) on a health outcome independent of other factors driving trends in the outcome. The authors determined that ITSA allows for analysis of the intervention's immediate impact on outcome level and on subsequent trends and enables a more careful measure of the causal effects of interventions on health care outcomes. CONCLUSIONS ITSA represents a significant improvement over traditional observational study designs in quantifying the impact of an intervention. ITSA is a useful statistical procedure to understand, consider, and implement as the field of neurosurgery evolves in sophistication in big-data analytics, economics, and health services research.

Gang membership and substance use: guilt as a gendered causal pathway.

PubMed

Coffman, Donna L; Melde, Chris; Esbensen, Finn-Aage

2015-03-01

We examine whether anticipated guilt for substance use is a gendered mechanism underlying the noted enhancement effect of gang membership on illegal drug use. We also demonstrate a method for making stronger causal inferences when assessing mediation in the presence of moderation and time-varying confounding. We estimate a series of inverse propensity weighted models to obtain unbiased estimates of mediation in the presence of confounding of the exposure (i.e., gang membership) and mediator (i.e., anticipated guilt) using three waves of data from a multi-site panel study of a law-related education program for youth ( N =1,113). The onset of gang membership significantly decreased anticipated substance use guilt among both male and female respondents. This reduction was significantly associated with increased frequency of substance use only for female respondents, however, suggesting that gender moderates the mechanism through which gang membership influences substance use. Criminologists are often concerned with identifying causal pathways for antisocial and/or delinquent behavior, but confounders of the exposure, mediator, and outcome often interfere with efforts to assess mediation. Many new approaches have been proposed for strengthening causal inference for mediation effects. After controlling for confounding using inverse propensity weighting, our results suggest that interventions aimed at reducing substance use by current and former female gang members should focus on the normative aspects of these behaviors.

Advanced statistical methods to study the effects of gastric tube and non-invasive ventilation on functional decline and survival in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

PubMed

Atassi, Nazem; Cudkowicz, Merit E; Schoenfeld, David A

2011-07-01

A few studies suggest that non-invasive ventilation (1) and gastric tube (G-tube) may have a positive impact on survival but the effect on functional decline is unclear. Confounding by indication may have produced biased estimates of the benefit seen in some of these retrospective studies. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of G-tube and NIV on survival and functional decline using advanced statistical models that adjust for confounding by indications. A database of 331 subjects enrolled in previous clinical trials in ALS was available for analysis. Marginal structural models (MSM) were used to compare the mortality hazards and ALSFRS-R slopes between treatment and non-treatment groups, after adjusting for confounding by indication. Results showed that the placement of a G-tube was associated with an additional 1.42 units/month decline in the ALSFRS-R slope (p < 0.0001) and increased mortality hazard of 0.28 (p = 0.02). The use of NIV had no significant effect on ALSFRS-R decline or mortality. In conclusion, marginal structural models can be used to adjust for confounding by indication in retrospective ALS studies. G-tube placement could be followed by a faster rate of functional decline and increased mortality. Our results may suffer from some of the limitations of retrospective analyses.

A comparison of two colorimetric assays, based upon Lowry and Bradford techniques, to estimate total protein in soil extracts.

PubMed

Redmile-Gordon, M A; Armenise, E; White, R P; Hirsch, P R; Goulding, K W T

2013-12-01

Soil extracts usually contain large quantities of dissolved humified organic material, typically reflected by high polyphenolic content. Since polyphenols seriously confound quantification of extracted protein, minimising this interference is important to ensure measurements are representative. Although the Bradford colorimetric assay is used routinely in soil science for rapid quantification protein in soil-extracts, it has several limitations. We therefore investigated an alternative colorimetric technique based on the Lowry assay (frequently used to measure protein and humic substances as distinct pools in microbial biofilms). The accuracies of both the Bradford assay and a modified Lowry microplate method were compared in factorial combination. Protein was quantified in soil-extracts (extracted with citrate), including standard additions of model protein (BSA) and polyphenol (Sigma H1675-2). Using the Lowry microplate assay described, no interfering effects of citrate were detected even with concentrations up to 5 times greater than are typically used to extract soil protein. Moreover, the Bradford assay was found to be highly susceptible to two simultaneous and confounding artefacts: 1) the colour development due to added protein was greatly inhibited by polyphenol concentration, and 2) substantial colour development was caused directly by the polyphenol addition. In contrast, the Lowry method enabled distinction between colour development from protein and non-protein origin, providing a more accurate quantitative analysis. These results suggest that the modified-Lowry method is a more suitable measure of extract protein (defined by standard equivalents) because it is less confounded by the high polyphenolic content which is so typical of soil extracts.

Whole Grain, Bran, and Germ Intake and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: A Prospective Cohort Study and Systematic Review

PubMed Central

de Munter, Jeroen S. L; Hu, Frank B; Spiegelman, Donna; Franz, Mary; van Dam, Rob M

2007-01-01

Background Control of body weight by balancing energy intake and energy expenditure is of major importance for the prevention of type 2 diabetes, but the role of specific dietary factors in the etiology of type 2 diabetes is less well established. We evaluated intakes of whole grain, bran, and germ in relation to risk of type 2 diabetes in prospective cohort studies. Methods and Findings We followed 161,737 US women of the Nurses' Health Studies (NHSs) I and II, without history of diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer at baseline. The age at baseline was 37–65 y for NHSI and 26–46 y for NHSII. Dietary intakes and potential confounders were assessed with regularly administered questionnaires. We documented 6,486 cases of type 2 diabetes during 12–18 y of follow-up. Other prospective cohort studies on whole grain intake and risk of type 2 diabetes were identified in searches of MEDLINE and EMBASE up to January 2007, and data were independently extracted by two reviewers. The median whole grain intake in the lowest and highest quintile of intake was, respectively, 3.7 and 31.2 g/d for NHSI and 6.2 and 39.9 g/d for NHSII. After adjustment for potential confounders, the relative risks (RRs) for the highest as compared with the lowest quintile of whole grain intake was 0.63 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.57–0.69) for NHSI and 0.68 (95% CI 0.57–0.81) for NHSII (both: p-value, test for trend <0.001). After further adjustment for body mass index (BMI), these RRs were 0.75 (95% CI 0.68–0.83; p-value, test for trend <0.001) and 0.86 (95% CI 0.72–1.02; p-value, test for trend 0.03) respectively. Associations for bran intake were similar to those for total whole grain intake, whereas no significant association was observed for germ intake after adjustment for bran. Based on pooled data for six cohort studies including 286,125 participants and 10,944 cases of type 2 diabetes, a two-serving-per-day increment in whole grain consumption was associated with a 21% (95% CI 13%–28%) decrease in risk of type 2 diabetes after adjustment for potential confounders and BMI. Conclusions Whole grain intake is inversely associated with risk of type 2 diabetes, and this association is stronger for bran than for germ. Findings from prospective cohort studies consistently support increasing whole grain consumption for the prevention of type 2 diabetes. PMID:17760498

On the Confounding Effect of Temperature on Chemical Shift-Encoded Fat Quantification

PubMed Central

Hernando, Diego; Sharma, Samir D.; Kramer, Harald; Reeder, Scott B.

2014-01-01

Purpose To characterize the confounding effect of temperature on chemical shift-encoded (CSE) fat quantification. Methods The proton resonance frequency of water, unlike triglycerides, depends on temperature. This leads to a temperature dependence of the spectral models of fat (relative to water) that are commonly used by CSE-MRI methods. Simulation analysis was performed for 1.5 Tesla CSE fat–water signals at various temperatures and echo time combinations. Oil–water phantoms were constructed and scanned at temperatures between 0 and 40°C using spectroscopy and CSE imaging at three echo time combinations. An explanted human liver, rejected for transplantation due to steatosis, was scanned using spectroscopy and CSE imaging. Fat–water reconstructions were performed using four different techniques: magnitude and complex fitting, with standard or temperature-corrected signal modeling. Results In all experiments, magnitude fitting with standard signal modeling resulted in large fat quantification errors. Errors were largest for echo time combinations near TEinit ≈ 1.3 ms, ΔTE ≈ 2.2 ms. Errors in fat quantification caused by temperature-related frequency shifts were smaller with complex fitting, and were avoided using a temperature-corrected signal model. Conclusion Temperature is a confounding factor for fat quantification. If not accounted for, it can result in large errors in fat quantifications in phantom and ex vivo acquisitions. PMID:24123362

Sick-building symptoms in office workers in northeastern France: a pilot study.

PubMed

Teculescu, D B; Sauleau, E A; Massin, N; Bohadana, A B; Buhler, O; Benamghar, L; Mur, J M

1998-07-01

To verify that sick building symptoms are present in north-eastern France office workers; to try to identify new confounding factors. The design was that of a cross-sectional study with control group. We studied with the same methods the personnel of an air-conditioned building (n=425), and of a naturally ventilated building (n=351). Air temperature and humidity, bacterial and fungal densities were measured by the same technical staff in the two buildings. A standard questionnaire on irritative and respiratory symptoms, personal and family history, and lifestyle was completed by the participants. In univariate analysis, exposure to air-conditioning was associated with an increased prevalence of symptoms (odds ratios-OR-between 1.54 and 2.84). A significant increase in sickness absence was also found among subjects working in air-conditioned offices. As a series of factors were suspected to interfere with these associations, logistic regression was applied. This method confirmed exposure to be an independent determinant of 7 symptoms, and also identified two determinants not previously described: a family history of respiratory diseases and "do-it-yourself' activities. we found the sick building symptoms to be present in a group of French office workers exposed to air-conditioning. We confirmed the influence of a number of confounding factors and described two further confounders - do-it-yourself activities at home and a history of familial respiratory disease.

Estimating influenza vaccine effectiveness: Evolution of methods to better understand effects of confounding in older adults.

PubMed

McElhaney, Janet E; Andrew, Melissa K; McNeil, Shelly A

2017-11-01

Older adults are at high risk for serious complications of influenza illness and loss of vaccine-mediated protection. It is increasingly recognized that in addition to age, multiple chronic conditions and associated frailty contribute to the decline in vaccine effectiveness in this population. However, observational studies have been fraught with issues of confounding related to the degree of frailty and functional decline, measures of which are not included in standard administrative health care databases that are used to calculate vaccine effectiveness. This issue has led to the identification of confounding by indication or from "healthy vaccinee" bias, which respectively lead to underestimates or overestimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness. In addition, the sensitivity and specificity of the criteria used to define influenza-like illness declines with increasing age due to atypical presentations of illness and the inability to distinguish between influenza and other respiratory viruses. The test-negative case:control design has emerged as a method to estimate influenza vaccine effectiveness by comparing vaccination rates in those with laboratory-confirmed influenza to those with other acute viral respiratory illnesses. This review provides a perspective on how test-negative case:control study designs and new insights into mechanisms of protection have considerably strengthened influenza vaccination policy decisions for older adults that have historically been undermined by the conclusions of observational studies. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evolution of epidemiologic methods and concepts in selected textbooks of the 20th century.

PubMed

Zhang, Fang F; Michaels, Desireé C; Mathema, Barun; Kauchali, Shuaib; Chatterjee, Anjan; Ferris, David C; James, Tamarra M; Knight, Jennifer; Dounel, Matthew; Tawfik, Hebatullah O; Frohlich, Janet A; Kuang, Li; Hoskin, Elena K; Veldman, Frederick J; Baldi, Giulia; Mlisana, Koleka P; Mametja, Lerole D; Diaz, Angela; Khan, Nealia L; Sternfels, Pamela; Sevigny, Jeffery J; Shamam, Asher; Morabia, Alfredo

2004-01-01

Textbooks are an expression of the state of development of a discipline at a given moment in time. By reviewing eight epidemiology textbooks published over the course of a century, we have attempted to trace the evolution of five epidemiologic concepts and methods: study design (cohort studies and case-control studies), confounding, bias, interaction and causal inference. Overall, these eight textbooks can be grouped into three generations. Greenwood (1935) and Hill (first edition 1937; version reviewed 1961)'s textbooks belong to the first generation, "early epidemiology", which comprise early definitions of bias and confounding. The second generation, "classic epidemiology", represented by the textbooks of Morris (first edition 1957; version reviewed 1964), MacMahon & Pugh (first edition 1960; version reviewed 1970), Susser (1973), and Lilienfeld & Lilienfeld (first edition 1976; version reviewed 1980), clarifies the properties of cohort and case-control study designs and the theory of disease causation. Miettinen (1985) and Rothman (1986)'s textbooks belong to a third generation, "modern epidemiology", presenting an integrated perspective on study designs and their measures of outcome, as well as distinguishing and formalizing the concepts of confounding and interaction. Our review demonstrates that epidemiology, as a scientific discipline, is in constant evolution and transformation. It is likely that new methodological tools, able to assess the complexity of the causes of human health, will be proposed in future generations of textbooks.

Overview of clinical research design.

PubMed

Hartung, Daniel M; Touchette, Daniel

2009-02-15

Basic concepts and terminology of clinical research design are presented for new clinical investigators. Clinical research, research involving human subjects, can be described as either observational or experimental. The findings of all clinical research can be threatened by issues of bias and confounding. Biases are systematic errors in how study subjects are selected or measured, which result in false inferences. Confounding is a distortion in findings that is attributable to mixing variable effects. Uncontrolled observation research is generally more prone to bias and confounding than experimental research. Observational research includes designs such as the cohort study, case-control study, and cross-sectional study, while experimental research typically involves a randomized controlled trial (RCT). The cohort study, which includes the RCT, defines subject allocation on the basis of exposure interest (e.g., drug, disease-management program) and follows the patients to assess the outcomes. The case-control study uses the primary outcome of interest (e.g., adverse event) to define subject allocation, and different exposures are assessed in a retrospective manner. Cross-sectional research evaluates both exposure and outcome concurrently. Each of these design methods possesses different strengths and weaknesses in answering research questions, as well as underlying many study subtypes. While experimental research is the strongest method for establishing causality, it can be difficult to accomplish under many scenarios. Observational clinical research offers many design alternatives that may be appropriate if planned and executed carefully.

Association between indoor and outdoor air pollution and adolescent asthma from 1995 to 1996 in Taiwan

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, T.N.; Ko, Y.C.; Chao, Y.Y.

The study aim was to estimate the contribution of indoor and outdoor air pollution to the 1-year prevalence of adolescent asthma after personal susceptibility and other potential risk factors were taken into account. A large-scaled cross-sectional study was conducted among 165,173 high school students aged 11 to 16 years in the different communities of Kaohsiung and Pintong in Taiwan, from October 1995 to June 1996. Each student and his/her parents participating in the study completed a video and a written International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood questionnaire about symptoms of wheezing and allergies, passive smoking, and demographic variables.more » After adjustment for potential confounders, adolescents exposed to cigarette smoking and environmental tobacco smoke were found to suffer from asthma at an increased frequency. The authors observed a statistically significant association between outdoor air pollution and asthma, after controlling for potential confound variables. Total suspended particulate, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, ozone, and airborne dust particles all displayed an independent association with asthma, respectively. There were no selection biases in this community-based study, which provides evidence that passive smoking and long-term, high average outdoor air pollution are independent risk factors of asthma.« less

Long-Term Coffee Consumption Is Associated with Decreased Incidence of New-Onset Hypertension: A Dose-Response Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Grosso, Giuseppe; Micek, Agnieszka; Godos, Justyna; Pajak, Andrzej; Sciacca, Salvatore; Bes-Rastrollo, Maira; Galvano, Fabio; Martinez-Gonzalez, Miguel A

2017-08-17

To perform a dose-response meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies investigating the association between long-term coffee intake and risk of hypertension. An online systematic search of studies published up to November 2016 was performed. Linear and non-linear dose-response meta-analyses were conducted; potential evidence of heterogeneity, publication bias, and confounding effect of selected variables were investigated through sensitivity and meta-regression analyses. Seven cohorts including 205,349 individuals and 44,120 cases of hypertension were included. In the non-linear analysis, there was a 9% significant decreased risk of hypertension per seven cups of coffee a day, while, in the linear dose-response association, there was a 1% decreased risk of hypertension for each additional cup of coffee per day. Among subgroups, there were significant inverse associations for females, caffeinated coffee, and studies conducted in the US with longer follow-up. Analysis of potential confounders revealed that smoking-related variables weakened the strength of association between coffee consumption and risk of hypertension. Increased coffee consumption is associated with a modest decrease in risk of hypertension in prospective cohort studies. Smoking status is a potential effect modifier on the association between coffee consumption and risk of hypertension.

Waist Circumference and Objectively Measured Sedentary Behavior in Rural School Adolescents.

PubMed

Machado-Rodrigues, Aristides M; Coelho E Silva, Manuel J; Ribeiro, Luís P; Fernandes, Romulo; Mota, Jorge; Malina, Robert M

2016-01-01

Research on relationships between lifestyle behaviors and adiposity in school youth is potentially important for identifying subgroups at risk. This study evaluates the associations between waist circumference (WC) and objective measures of sedentary behavior (SB) in a sample of rural school adolescents. The sample included 254 students (114 boys, 140 girls), 13-16 years of age, from rural regions of the Portuguese midlands. Height, weight, and WC were measured. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) was assessed with the 20-m shuttle-run test. An uniaxial GT1M accelerometer was used to obtain 5 consecutive days of physically activity (PA) and SB. Multiple linear regression was used to test associations between WC and SB, adjusted for several potential confounders (age, sex, PA, CRF, parental education). SB was not significantly associated with the WC, neither in the unadjusted model nor after adjustment for all potential confounders. In the final model, the unique significant predictor of the WC was cardiorespiratory fitness (β = -0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI], -1.02 to -0.62). WC was not independently associated with SB time in rural school adolescents. Future research is claimed among rural adolescents in different geographic contexts to try to clarify recent findings of less studied communities. © 2015, American School Health Association.

Twins' risk of childhood asthma mediated by gestational age and birthweight.

PubMed

Ullemar, V; Lundholm, C; Almqvist, C

2015-08-01

Children born with low gestational age (GA) or low birthweight (BW) are at increased risk of asthma. Twins as compared to singletons are on average more likely to be born with lower GA and BW and have been hypothesized to comprise a high-risk population for asthma. Many previous studies have not accounted for potential confounders or mediators. To investigate the association between twinship and childhood asthma or early life wheeze and identify potential mediators, such as GA/BW. The study population consisted of two cohorts including all children born in Sweden from 1 January 1993 to 1 June 2001 (n = 756,363 singletons, n = 22,478 twins) and 1 July 2005 to 31 December 2009 (n = 456,239 singletons, n = 12,872 twins). Asthma was defined using validated register-based outcomes of diagnosis or medication. The data were analysed using logistic (older cohort) and Cox regression (younger cohort). Adjusted models incorporated potential confounding or mediating factors including gestational age and birthweight. In the younger cohort, the crude hazard ratio (HR) of asthma medication after 1.5 years of age was 1.12 (95% CI 1.01-1.23), and fully adjusted HR was 0.80, 95% CI 0.72-0.89. Crude HR of asthma diagnosis in the same age group was 1.14 (95% CI 0.99-1.30), fully adjusted 0.78 (0.68-0.98). Adjusted analyses in the older group yielded similar results. Twins were at significantly higher unadjusted risk of asthma or early life wheeze compared to singletons in the younger, but not in the older cohort. Associations attenuated following adjustment for GA/BW, suggesting that GA/BW mediates the effect of twinship on asthma risk. After adjustments, twins were at lower risk of asthma outcomes, possibly due to unmeasured confounding. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The E-music box: an empirical method for exploring the universal capacity for musical production and for social interaction through music

PubMed Central

Novembre, Giacomo; Varlet, Manuel; Muawiyath, Shujau; Stevens, Catherine J.; Keller, Peter E.

2015-01-01

Humans are assumed to have a natural—universal—predisposition for making music and for musical interaction. Research in this domain is, however, typically conducted with musically trained individuals, and therefore confounded with expertise. Here, we present a rediscovered and updated invention—the E-music box—that we establish as an empirical method to investigate musical production and interaction in everyone. The E-music box transforms rotatory cyclical movements into pre-programmable digital musical output, with tempo varying according to rotation speed. The user’s movements are coded as continuous oscillatory data, which can be analysed using linear or nonlinear analytical tools. We conducted a proof-of-principle experiment to demonstrate that, using this method, pairs of non-musically trained individuals can interact according to conventional musical practices (leader/follower roles and lower-pitch dominance). The results suggest that the E-music box brings ‘active’ and ‘interactive’ musical capacities within everyone’s reach. We discuss the potential of this method for exploring the universal predisposition for music making and interaction in developmental and cross-cultural contexts, and for neurologic musical therapy and rehabilitation. PMID:26715993

Animal food intake and cooking methods in relation to endometrial cancer risk in Shanghai

PubMed Central

Xu, W-H; Dai, Q; Xiang, Y-B; Zhao, G-M; Zheng, W; Gao, Y-T; Ruan, Z-X; Cheng, J-R; Shu, X-O

2006-01-01

We evaluated animal food intake and cooking methods in relation to endometrial cancer risk in a population-based case–control study in Shanghai, China. A validated food frequency questionnaire was used to collect the usual dietary habits of 1204 cases and 1212 controls aged 30–69 years between 1997 and 2003. Statistical analyses were based on an unconditional logistic regression model adjusting for potential confounders. High intake of meat and fish was associated with an increased risk of endometrial cancer, with adjusted odds ratios for the highest vs the lowest quartile groups being 1.7 (95% confidence interval: 1.3–2.2) and 2.4 (1.8–3.1), respectively. The elevated risk was observed for all types of meat and fish intake. Intake of eggs and milk was not related to risk. Cooking methods and doneness levels for meat and fish were not associated with risk, nor did they modify the association with meat and fish consumption. Our study suggests that animal food consumption may play an important role in the aetiology of endometrial cancer, but cooking methods have minimal influence on risk among Chinese women. PMID:17060930

The E-music box: an empirical method for exploring the universal capacity for musical production and for social interaction through music.

PubMed

Novembre, Giacomo; Varlet, Manuel; Muawiyath, Shujau; Stevens, Catherine J; Keller, Peter E

2015-11-01

Humans are assumed to have a natural-universal-predisposition for making music and for musical interaction. Research in this domain is, however, typically conducted with musically trained individuals, and therefore confounded with expertise. Here, we present a rediscovered and updated invention-the E-music box-that we establish as an empirical method to investigate musical production and interaction in everyone. The E-music box transforms rotatory cyclical movements into pre-programmable digital musical output, with tempo varying according to rotation speed. The user's movements are coded as continuous oscillatory data, which can be analysed using linear or nonlinear analytical tools. We conducted a proof-of-principle experiment to demonstrate that, using this method, pairs of non-musically trained individuals can interact according to conventional musical practices (leader/follower roles and lower-pitch dominance). The results suggest that the E-music box brings 'active' and 'interactive' musical capacities within everyone's reach. We discuss the potential of this method for exploring the universal predisposition for music making and interaction in developmental and cross-cultural contexts, and for neurologic musical therapy and rehabilitation.

Spatio-temporal Event Classification using Time-series Kernel based Structured Sparsity

PubMed Central

Jeni, László A.; Lőrincz, András; Szabó, Zoltán; Cohn, Jeffrey F.; Kanade, Takeo

2016-01-01

In many behavioral domains, such as facial expression and gesture, sparse structure is prevalent. This sparsity would be well suited for event detection but for one problem. Features typically are confounded by alignment error in space and time. As a consequence, high-dimensional representations such as SIFT and Gabor features have been favored despite their much greater computational cost and potential loss of information. We propose a Kernel Structured Sparsity (KSS) method that can handle both the temporal alignment problem and the structured sparse reconstruction within a common framework, and it can rely on simple features. We characterize spatio-temporal events as time-series of motion patterns and by utilizing time-series kernels we apply standard structured-sparse coding techniques to tackle this important problem. We evaluated the KSS method using both gesture and facial expression datasets that include spontaneous behavior and differ in degree of difficulty and type of ground truth coding. KSS outperformed both sparse and non-sparse methods that utilize complex image features and their temporal extensions. In the case of early facial event classification KSS had 10% higher accuracy as measured by F1 score over kernel SVM methods1. PMID:27830214

Prognostic role and implications of mutation status of tumor suppressor gene ARID1A in cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Luchini, Claudio; Veronese, Nicola; Solmi, Marco; Cho, Hanbyoul; Kim, Jae-Hoon; Chou, Angela; Gill, Anthony J.; Faraj, Sheila F.; Chaux, Alcides; Netto, George J.; Nakayama, Kentaro; Kyo, Satoru; Lee, Soo Young; Kim, Duck-Woo; Yousef, George M.; Scorilas, Andreas; Nelson, Gregg S.; Köbel, Martin; Kalloger, Steve E.; Schaeffer, David F.; Yan, Hai-Bo; Liu, Feng; Yokoyama, Yoshihito; Zhang, Xianyu; Pang, Da; Lichner, Zsuzsanna; Sergi, Giuseppe; Manzato, Enzo; Capelli, Paola; Wood, Laura D.; Scarpa, Aldo; Correll, Christoph U.

2015-01-01

Loss of the tumor suppressor gene AT-rich interactive domain-containing protein 1A (ARID1A) has been demonstrated in several cancers, but its prognostic role is unknown. We aimed to investigate the risk associated with loss of ARID1A (ARID1A−) for all-cause mortality, cancer-specific mortality and recurrence of disease in subjects with cancer. PubMed and SCOPUS search from database inception until 01/31/2015 without language restriction was conducted, contacting authors for unpublished data. Eligible were prospective studies reporting data on prognostic parameters in subjects with cancer, comparing participants with presence of ARID1A (ARID1A+) vs. ARID1A−, assessed either via immunohistochemistry (loss of expression) or with genetic testing (presence of mutation). Data were summarized using risk ratios (RR) for number of deaths/recurrences and hazard ratios (HR) for time-dependent risk related to ARID1A− adjusted for potential confounders. Of 136 hits, 25 studies with 5,651 participants (28 cohorts; ARID1A−: n = 1,701; ARID1A+: n = 3,950), with a mean follow-up period of 4.7 ± 1.8 years, were meta-analyzed. Compared to ARID1A+, ARID1A− significantly increased cancer-specific mortality (studies = 3; RR = 1.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.19–2.00, I2 = 31%). Using HRs adjusted for potential confounders, ARID1A− was associated with a greater risk of cancer-specific mortality (studies = 2; HR = 2.55, 95%CI = 1.19–5.45, I2 = 19%) and cancer recurrence (studies = 10; HR = 1.93, 95%CI = 1.22–3.05, I2 = 76%). On the basis of these results, we have demonstrated that loss of ARID1A shortened time to cancer-specific mortality, and to recurrence of cancer when adjusting for potential confounders. For its role, this gene should be considered as an important potential target for personalized medicine in cancer treatment. PMID:26384299

Working on Sundays–effects on safety, health, and work-life balance.

PubMed

Wirtz, Anna; Nachreiner, Friedhelm; Rolfes, Katharina

2011-05-01

Several attributes of the work schedule can increase the risk of occupational injuries and accidents, health impairments, and reduced social participation. Although previous studies mainly focused on the effects of shiftwork and long working hours on employee health and safety, there is little evidence of a potential negative impact of working Sundays on the incidence of occupational accidents, health impairments, and work-life balance. A representative sample of employed workers in 31 member and associated states of the European Union (n = 23,934) served as the database for a cross-sectional analysis. The sample was collected via face-to-face interviews in the year 2005. The association of the risks of occupational accidents, health impairments, and decreases in work-life balance with working Sundays was calculated using logistic regression models, controlling for potential confounders, such as shiftwork, workload, and demographic characteristics. The results indicated that working one or more Sundays/month was associated with increase both in the risk of reporting one or more health impairments (odds ratio [OR]: 1.17, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.06-1.29) and poorer work-life balance (OR: 1.15, 95% CI: 1.02-1.28). These effects remained after controlling for potentially confounding factors, such as other work schedule attributes, intensity of physical and mental workload, and individual characteristics. Furthermore, working Sundays was also related to increased risk of occupational accidents within the last year (OR: 1.34, 95% CI: 1.03-1.73). Controlling again for individual, workload, and working-time characteristics, a significant association with accident risk, however, remained only in work sectors with low a priori risk of occupational accidents (OR: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.02-1.91), although the increased risk could be observed for both medium and high a priori risk sectors working Sundays (without controlling for additional confounders). The results thus indicate that the detrimental effects of working Sundays on safety, health, and social well-being should be taken into account when designing work schedules. The potential hazards to employees' safety, health, and work-life balance, in particular, should be considered in discussions concerning extending work on Sundays in certain sectors, e.g., retail.

Physical health-related quality of life in relation to metabolic health and obesity among men and women in Germany.

PubMed

Truthmann, Julia; Mensink, Gert B M; Bosy-Westphal, Anja; Hapke, Ulfert; Scheidt-Nave, Christa; Schienkiewitz, Anja

2017-06-10

This study examined sex-specific differences in physical health-related quality of life (HRQoL) across subgroups of metabolic health and obesity. We specifically asked whether (1) obesity is related to lower HRQoL independent of metabolic health status and potential confounders, and (2) whether associations are similar in men and women. We used cross-sectional data from the German Health Interview and Examination Survey 2008-11. Physical HRQoL was measured using the Short Form-36 version 2 physical component summary (PCS) score. Based on harmonized ATPIII criteria for the definition of the metabolic health and a body mass index ≥ 30 kg/m 2 to define obesity, individuals were classified as metabolically healthy non-obese (MHNO), metabolically unhealthy non-obese (MUNO), metabolically healthy obese (MHO), and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO). Sex-specific analyses including multivariable linear regression analyses were based on PCS as the dependent variable, metabolic health and obesity category as the independent variable with three categories and MHNO as the reference, and age, education, lifestyle and comorbidities as confounders. This study included 6860 participants (3298 men, 3562 women). Compared to MHNO, all other metabolic health and obesity categories had significantly lower PCS in both sexes. As reflected by the beta coefficients [95% confidence interval] from bivariable linear regression models, a significant inverse association with PCS was strongest for MUO (men: -7.0 [-8.2; -5.8]; women: -9.0 [-10.2; -7.9]), intermediate for MUNO (men: -4.2 [-5.3; -3.1]; women: -5.6 [-6.8; -4.4]) and least pronounced for MHO (men: -2.2 [-3.6; -0.8]; women -3.9 [-5.4; -2.5]). Differences in relation to MHNO remained statistically significant for all groups after adjusting for confounders, but decreased in particular for MUNO (men:-1.3 [-2.3; -0.3]; women: -1.5 [-2.7; -0.3]. Obesity was significantly related to lower physical HRQoL, independent of metabolic health status. Potential confounders including age, educational status, health-related behaviors, and comorbidities explained parts of the inverse relationship. Associations were evident in both sexes and consistently more pronounced among women than men.

Association of hormonal dysregulation with metabolic syndrome in older women: data from the InCHIANTI study

PubMed Central

Maggio, Marcello; Lauretani, Fulvio; Ceda, Gian Paolo; Bandinelli, Stefania; Basaria, Shehzad; Paolisso, Giuseppe; Ble, Alessandro; Egan, Josephine M.; Metter, E. Jeffrey; Abbatecola, Angela M.; Zuliani, Giovanni; Ruggiero, Carmelinda; Valenti, Giorgio; Guralnik, Jack M.; Ferrucci, Luigi

2009-01-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a strong risk factor for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Conditions associated with hyperandrogenism are often associated with glucose intolerance and other features of MetS in young women. As the prevalence of MetS increases with age and is probably multifactorial, it is reasonable to hypothesize that age-related changes in androgens and other hormones might contribute to the development of MetS in older persons. However, this hypothesis has never been tested in older women. We hypothesized that high levels of testosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEA-S), and cortisol and low levels of sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) and IGF-I would be associated with MetS in a representative cohort of older Italian women independently of confounders (including inflammatory markers). After exclusion of participants on hormone replacement therapy and those with a history of bilateral oophorectomy, 512 women (≥65 yr) had complete data on testosterone, cortisol, DHEA-S, SHBG, fasting insulin, total and free IGF-I, IL-6, and C-reactive protein (CRP). MetS was defined according to ATP-III criteria. Insulin resistance was calculated according to HOMA. MetS was found in 145 women (28.3%). Participants with vs. those without MetS had higher age-adjusted levels of bioavailable testosterone (P < 0.001), IL-6 (P < 0.001), CRP (P < 0.001), and HOMA (P < 0.001) and lower levels of SHBG (P < 0.001). After adjustment for potential confounders, participants with decreased SHBG had an increased risk of MetS (P < 0.0001) vs. those with low SHBG. In a further model including all hormones and confounders, log SHBG was the only independent factor associated with MetS (OR: 0.44, 95% CI 0.21–0.91, P = 0.027). In older women, SHBG is negatively associated with MetS independently of confounders, including inflammatory markers and insulin resistance. Further studies are needed to support the notion that raising SHBG is a potential therapeutic target for prevention and treatment of MetS. PMID:16968811

Association of hormonal dysregulation with metabolic syndrome in older women: data from the InCHIANTI study.

PubMed

Maggio, Marcello; Lauretani, Fulvio; Ceda, Gian Paolo; Bandinelli, Stefania; Basaria, Shehzad; Paolisso, Giuseppe; Ble, Alessandro; Egan, Josephine M; Metter, E Jeffrey; Abbatecola, Angela M; Zuliani, Giovanni; Ruggiero, Carmelinda; Valenti, Giorgio; Guralnik, Jack M; Ferrucci, Luigi

2007-01-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a strong risk factor for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Conditions associated with hyperandrogenism are often associated with glucose intolerance and other features of MetS in young women. As the prevalence of MetS increases with age and is probably multifactorial, it is reasonable to hypothesize that age-related changes in androgens and other hormones might contribute to the development of MetS in older persons. However, this hypothesis has never been tested in older women. We hypothesized that high levels of testosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate (DHEA-S), and cortisol and low levels of sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) and IGF-I would be associated with MetS in a representative cohort of older Italian women independently of confounders (including inflammatory markers). After exclusion of participants on hormone replacement therapy and those with a history of bilateral oophorectomy, 512 women (>/=65 yr) had complete data on testosterone, cortisol, DHEA-S, SHBG, fasting insulin, total and free IGF-I, IL-6, and C-reactive protein (CRP). MetS was defined according to ATP-III criteria. Insulin resistance was calculated according to HOMA. MetS was found in 145 women (28.3%). Participants with vs. those without MetS had higher age-adjusted levels of bioavailable testosterone (P < 0.001), IL-6 (P < 0.001), CRP (P < 0.001), and HOMA (P < 0.001) and lower levels of SHBG (P < 0.001). After adjustment for potential confounders, participants with decreased SHBG had an increased risk of MetS (P < 0.0001) vs. those with low SHBG. In a further model including all hormones and confounders, log SHBG was the only independent factor associated with MetS (OR: 0.44, 95% CI 0.21-0.91, P = 0.027). In older women, SHBG is negatively associated with MetS independently of confounders, including inflammatory markers and insulin resistance. Further studies are needed to support the notion that raising SHBG is a potential therapeutic target for prevention and treatment of MetS.

Summary of retrospective asbestos and welding fume exposure estimates for a nuclear naval shipyard and their correlation with radiation exposure estimates.

PubMed

Zaebst, D D; Seel, E A; Yiin, J H; Nowlin, S J; Chen, P

2009-07-01

In support of a nested case-control study at a U.S. naval shipyard, the results of the reconstruction of historical exposures were summarized, and an analysis was undertaken to determine the impact of historical exposures to potential chemical confounders. The nested case-control study (N = 4388) primarily assessed the relationship between lung cancer and external ionizing radiation. Chemical confounders considered important were asbestos and welding fume (as iron oxide fume), and the chromium and nickel content of welding fume. Exposures to the potential confounders were estimated by an expert panel based on a set of quantitatively defined categories of exposure. Distributions of the estimated exposures and trends in exposures over time were examined for the study population. Scatter plots and Spearman rank correlation coefficients were used to assess the degree of association between the estimates of exposure to asbestos, welding fume, and ionizing radiation. Correlation coefficients were calculated separately for 0-, 15-, 20-, and 25-year time-lagged cumulative exposures, total radiation dose (which included medical X-ray dose) and occupational radiation dose. Exposed workers' estimated cumulative exposures to asbestos ranged from 0.01 fiber-days/cm(3) to just under 20,000 fiber-days/cm(3), with a median of 29.0 fiber-days/cm(3). Estimated cumulative exposures to welding fume ranged from 0.16 mg-days/m(3) to just over 30,000 mg-days/m(3), with a median of 603 mg-days/m(3). Spearman correlation coefficients between cumulative radiation dose and cumulative asbestos exposures ranged from 0.09 (occupational dose) to 0.47 (total radiation dose), and those between radiation and welding fume from 0.14 to 0.47. The estimates of relative risk for ionizing radiation and lung cancer were unchanged when lowest and highest estimates of asbestos and welding fume were considered. These results suggest a fairly large proportion of study population workers were exposed to asbestos and welding fume, that the absolute level of confounding exposure did not affect the risk estimates, and that weak relationships existed between monitored lifetime cumulative occupational radiation dose and asbestos or welding fume.

Thawing as a critical pre-analytical step in the lipidomic profiling of plasma samples: New standardized protocol.

PubMed

Pizarro, Consuelo; Arenzana-Rámila, Irene; Pérez-del-Notario, Nuria; Pérez-Matute, Patricia; González-Sáiz, José María

2016-03-17

Lipid profiling is a promising tool for the discovery and subsequent identification of biomarkers associated with various diseases. However, data quality is quite dependent on the pre-analytical methods employed. To date, potential confounding factors that may affect lipid metabolite levels after the thawing of plasma for biomarker exploration studies have not been thoroughly evaluated. In this study, by means of experimental design methodology, we performed the first in-depth examination of the ways in which thawing conditions affect lipid metabolite levels. After the optimization stage, we concluded that temperature, sample volume and the thawing method were the determining factors that had to be exhaustively controlled in the thawing process to ensure the quality of biomarker discovery. Best thawing conditions were found to be: 4 °C, with 0.25 mL of human plasma and ultrasound (US) thawing. The new US proposed thawing method was quicker than the other methods we studied, allowed more features to be identified and increased the signal of the lipids. In view of its speed, efficiency and detectability, the US thawing method appears to be a simple, economical method for the thawing of plasma samples, which could easily be applied in clinical laboratories before lipid profiling studies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simpson's paradox: A statistician's case study.

PubMed

Chu, Kevin H; Brown, Nathan J; Pelecanos, Anita; Brown, Anthony Ft

2018-02-26

Gender equality and workforce diversity has recently been in the forefront of College discussions. Reasons for the difference between various groups may not be as they initially appeared. The results of comparing the outcome between two groups can sometimes be confounded and even reversed by an unrecognised third variable. This concept is known as Simpson's Paradox, and is illustrated here using a renowned case study on potential gender bias for acceptance to Graduate School at the University of California, Berkeley.  The investigation showed that males were 1.8 times more likely to be admitted to Graduate School than females in 1973. Initially it appeared that women were discriminated against in the selection process. However, when admissions were re-examined at individual Departments of the School, admission tended to be better for women than men in four of six Departments. This contradiction or paradox tells us that the association between admission and gender was dependent upon on Department.  The confounding effect of Department was defined by two characteristics. Firstly, a strong association between Department and admission: some Departments admitted much smaller percentages of applicants than others. Secondly, a strong association between Department and gender: females tended to apply to Departments with lower admission rates.  The explanation of differences between groups can be multifactorial. A search for possible confounders will assist in this understanding. This could apply whenever two groups initially appear to differ, but on closer analysis this difference is either unfounded, or even reversed by reference to a third, confounding variable. © 2018 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

Medication Use in Early-HD Participants in Track-HD: an Investigation of its Effects on Clinical Performance.

PubMed

Keogh, Ruth; Frost, Chris; Owen, Gail; Daniel, Rhian M; Langbehn, Doug R; Leavitt, Blair; Durr, Alexandra; Roos, Raymund A C; Landwehrmeyer, G Bernhard; Reilmann, Ralf; Borowsky, Beth; Stout, Julie; Craufurd, David; Tabrizi, Sarah J

2016-01-11

 Insufficient evidence exists to guide the long-term pharmacological management of Huntington's disease (HD) although most current interventions rely on symptomatic management. The effect of many frontline treatments on potential endpoints for HD clinical trials remains unknown. Our objective was to investigate how therapies widely used to manage HD affect the symptom for which they are prescribed and other endpoints using data from TRACK-HD. We used longitudinal models to estimate effects of medication use on performance on tests of motor, cognitive and neuropsychiatric function using data from 123 TRACK-HD stage 1/2 participants across four study visits. Adjustment for confounding by prior medication use, prior clinical performance, concomitant use of other medications, and baseline variables (sex, disease group, age, CAG, study site, education) enabled a closer-to-causal interpretation of the associations. Adjusting for baseline variables only, medication use was typically associated with worse clinical performance, reflecting greater medication use in more advanced patients. After additional adjustment for longitudinal confounders such "inverse" associations were generally eliminated and in the expected directions: participants taking neuroleptics tended to have better motor performance, improved affect and poorer cognitive performance, and those taking SSRI/SNRIs had less apathy, less affect and better total behaviour scores. However, we uncovered few statistically significant associations. Limitations include sample size and unmeasured confounding. In conclusion, adjustment for confounding by prior measurements largely eliminated associations between medication use and poorer clinical performance from simple analyses. However, there was little convincing evidence of causal effects of medication on clinical performance and larger cohorts or trials are needed.

Perceived fairness of pay among people with and without disabilities: a propensity score matched analysis of working Australians.

PubMed

Milner, Allison; Aitken, Zoe; Krnjacki, Lauren; Bentley, Rebecca; Blakely, Tony; LaMontagne, Anthony D; Kavanagh, Anne M

2015-09-01

Equity and fairness at work are associated with a range of organizational and health outcomes. Past research suggests that workers with disabilities experience inequity in the workplace. It is difficult to conclude whether the presence of disability is the reason for perceived unfair treatment due to the possible confounding of effect estimates by other demographic or socioeconomic factors. The data source was the Household, Income, and Labor Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey (2001-2012). Propensity for disability was calculated from logistic models including gender, age, education, country of birth, and father's occupational skill level as predictors. We then used nearest neighbor (on propensity score) matched analysis to match workers with disabilities to workers without disability. Results suggest that disability is independently associated with lower fairness of pay after controlling for confounding factors in the propensity score matched analysis; although results do suggest less than half a standard deviation difference, indicating small effects. Similar results were apparent in standard multivariable regression models and alternative propensity score analyses (stratification, covariate adjustment using the propensity score, and inverse probability of treatment weighting). Whilst neither multivariable regression nor propensity scores adjust for unmeasured confounding, and there remains the potential for other biases, similar results for the two methodological approaches to confounder adjustment provide some confidence of an independent association of disability with perceived unfairness of pay. Based on this, we suggest that the disparity in the perceived fairness of pay between people with and without disabilities may be explained by worse treatment of people with disabilities in the workplace.

Psychotic experiences and risk of self-injurious behaviour in the general population: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Honings, S; Drukker, M; Groen, R; van Os, J

2016-01-01

Recent studies suggest that psychotic experiences (PE) in the general population are associated with an increased risk of self-injurious behaviour. Both the magnitude of this association and the level of adjustment for confounders vary among studies. A meta-analysis was performed to integrate the available evidence. The influence of possible confounders, including variably defined depression, was assessed. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted including general population studies reporting on the risk of self-injurious behaviour in individuals with PE. Studies were identified by a systematic search strategy in Pubmed, PsycINFO and Embase. Reported effect sizes were extracted and meta-analytically pooled. The risk of self-injurious behaviour was 3.20 times higher in individuals with PE compared with those without. Subanalyses showed that PE were associated with self-harm, suicidal ideation as well as suicidal attempts. All studies had scope for considerable residual confounding; effect sizes adjusted for depression were significantly smaller than effect sizes unadjusted for depression. In the longitudinal studies, adjustment for psychopathology resulted in a 74% reduction in excess risk. PE are associated with self-injurious behaviour, suggesting they have potential as passive markers of suicidality. However, the association is confounded and several methodological issues remain, particularly how to separate PE from the full range of connected psychopathology in determining any specific association with self-injurious behaviour. Given evidence that PE represent an indicator of severity of non-psychotic psychopathology, the association between PE and self-injurious behaviour probably reflects a greater likelihood of self-injurious behaviour in more severe states of mental distress.

The contribution of fetal drug exposure to temperament: potential teratogenic effects on neuropsychiatric risk.

PubMed

Weiss, Sandra J; St Jonn-Seed, Mary; Harris-Muchell, Carolyn

2007-08-01

Preliminary evidence indicates that fetal drug exposure may be associated with alterations in temperament. However, studies often do not dissociate the potential effects of drug exposure from other perinatal or environmental factors that could influence temperament phenotypes. High risk children (n = 120) were followed from birth to 6 months of age to determine the effects of fetal drug exposure on temperament, after controlling for the child's gender, gestational age, medical morbidity, ethnicity, and maltreatment as well as the mother's stress, income adequacy, and quality of caregiving. Methods included medical chart review, questionnaires, and videotapes of mother-child interaction. Preliminary analyses indicated that fetal drug exposure was associated with both distractibility and intensity of children's responses to the environment at 6 months of age. After adjusting for potentially confounding variables, drug exposure accounted for 12% of the variance in distractibility but was not a significant predictor in the regression model for intensity. Findings suggest that drug-exposed children may experience difficulty sustaining their focus of attention and be more easily distracted by environmental stimuli than non-drug-exposed children. Results converge with previous research to implicate cortical hyperarousal, stemming from teratogenic effects on the dopaminergic system during fetal development.

Murine model of neuromuscular electrical stimulation on squamous cell carcinoma: Potential implications for dysphagia therapy

PubMed Central

Linkov, Gary; Branski, Ryan C.; Amin, Milan; Chernichenko, Natalya; Chen, Chun-Hao; Alon, Gad; Langmore, Susan; Wong, Richard J.; Kraus, Dennis H.

2013-01-01

Background Dysphagia is a potential consequence of treatment for head and neck cancer. Neuromuscular electrical stimulation (NMES) has evolved as a treatment option, with the goal of improved swallow function in patients with chronic dysphagia. However, the effects of NMES on tumorigenicity are unknown and often confound the initiation of this therapy, potentially limiting its efficacy in treating patients with head and neck cancer. Methods Squamous cell carcinoma was grown in the flank of athymic, nude mice. Mice were randomized into treatment and control groups; the experimental group received daily NMES directly to the flank for 8 days. Results Tumor volumes, recorded on days 0, 3, 7, and 10, demonstrated no significant differences between groups on each day of measurement. Immunohistochemical analysis of apoptosis, proliferation, and vascularization also failed to demonstrate statistically significant differences between treated and untreated groups. Conclusions NMES does not promote the growth of underlying tumor in our model. These data may provide preliminary evidence that applying electrical stimulation over the muscles of the anterior neck does not increase the risk of tumorigenicity. Early initiation of NMES in this challenging population may be feasible from an oncologic standpoint. PMID:22083666

Cancer biomarker discovery is improved by accounting for variability in general levels of drug sensitivity in pre-clinical models.

PubMed

Geeleher, Paul; Cox, Nancy J; Huang, R Stephanie

2016-09-21

We show that variability in general levels of drug sensitivity in pre-clinical cancer models confounds biomarker discovery. However, using a very large panel of cell lines, each treated with many drugs, we could estimate a general level of sensitivity to all drugs in each cell line. By conditioning on this variable, biomarkers were identified that were more likely to be effective in clinical trials than those identified using a conventional uncorrected approach. We find that differences in general levels of drug sensitivity are driven by biologically relevant processes. We developed a gene expression based method that can be used to correct for this confounder in future studies.

The prompted optional randomization trial: a new design for comparative effectiveness research.

PubMed

Flory, James; Karlawish, Jason

2012-12-01

Randomized controlled trials are the gold standard for medical evidence because randomization provides the best-known protection against confounding of results. Randomization has practical and ethical problems that limit the number of trials that can be conducted, however. A different method for collecting clinical data retains the statistically useful properties of randomization without incurring its practical and ethical challenges. A computerized prompt introduces a random element into clinical decision-making that can be instantly overridden if it conflicts with optimal patient care. This creates a weak form of randomization that still eliminates the effect of all confounders, can be carried out without disturbing routine clinical care, and arguably will not require research-grade informed consent.

LD Score Regression Distinguishes Confounding from Polygenicity in Genome-Wide Association Studies

PubMed Central

Bulik-Sullivan, Brendan K.; Loh, Po-Ru; Finucane, Hilary; Ripke, Stephan; Yang, Jian; Patterson, Nick; Daly, Mark J.; Price, Alkes L.; Neale, Benjamin M.

2015-01-01

Both polygenicity (i.e., many small genetic effects) and confounding biases, such as cryptic relatedness and population stratification, can yield an inflated distribution of test statistics in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). However, current methods cannot distinguish between inflation from true polygenic signal and bias. We have developed an approach, LD Score regression, that quantifies the contribution of each by examining the relationship between test statistics and linkage disequilibrium (LD). The LD Score regression intercept can be used to estimate a more powerful and accurate correction factor than genomic control. We find strong evidence that polygenicity accounts for the majority of test statistic inflation in many GWAS of large sample size. PMID:25642630

Correction for Metastability in the Quantification of PID in Thin-film Module Testing: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hacke, Peter L; Johnston, Steven; Spataru, Sergiu

A fundamental change in the analysis for the accelerated stress testing of thin-film modules is proposed, whereby power changes due to metastability and other effects that may occur due to the thermal history are removed from the power measurement that we obtain as a function of the applied stress factor. The power of reference modules normalized to an initial state - undergoing the same thermal and light- exposure history but without the applied stress factor such as humidity or voltage bias - is subtracted from that of the stressed modules. For better understanding and appropriate application in standardized tests, themore » method is demonstrated and discussed for potential-induced degradation testing in view of the parallel-occurring but unrelated physical mechanisms that can lead to confounding power changes in the module.« less

Depressed mood enhances anxiety to unpredictable threat

PubMed Central

Robinson, OJ; Overstreet, C; Letkiewicz, A; Grillon, C

2011-01-01

Background Depression and anxiety disorders (AD) are highly comorbid, but the reason for this comorbidity is unclear. One possibility is that they predispose one another. An informative way to examine interactions between disorders without the confounds present in patient populations is to manipulate the psychological processes thought to underlie the pathological states in healthy individuals. In this paper we therefore asked whether a model of the sad mood in depression can enhance psychophysiological responses (startle) to a model of the anxiety in AD. We predicted that sad mood would increase anxious anxiety-potentiated startle responses. Methods In a between-subjects design, participants (N=36) completed either a sad mood induction procedure (N=18) or neutral mood induction procedure (N=18). Startle responses were assessed during short duration predictable electric shock conditions (fear-potentiated startle) or long-duration unpredictable threat of shock conditions (anxiety-potentiated startle). Results Induced sadness enhanced anxiety-, but not fear- potentiated startle. Conclusions This study provides support for the hypothesis that sadness can increase anxious responding measured by the affective startle response. This, taken together with prior evidence that AD can contribute to depression, provides initial experimental support for the proposition that AD and depression are frequently comorbid because they may be mutually reinforcing. PMID:22088577

Concentrations of Water-Soluble Vitamins in Blood and Urinary Excretion in Patients with Diabetes Mellitus.

PubMed

Iwakawa, Hiromi; Nakamura, Yasuyuki; Fukui, Tomiho; Fukuwatari, Tsutomu; Ugi, Satoshi; Maegawa, Hiroshi; Doi, Yukio; Shibata, Katsumi

2016-01-01

We examined the concentrations of water-soluble vitamins in blood and urinary excretion of 22 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (type 2DM) and 20 healthy control participants. Macronutrient and vitamin intakes of type 2DM subjects were measured using a weighed food record method. Control participants consumed a semipurified diet for eight days. Multiple linear regression models were used to determine whether significant differences existed in vitamin concentrations in blood independent of age, sex, and other confounding factors. Concentrations of vitamins B2, B6, C, niacin, and folate in blood were significantly lower in type 2DM subjects than in controls, independent of confounding factors. Renal clearances of vitamins B6, C, niacin, and folate were significantly higher in type 2DM subjects than in controls. In conclusion, concentrations of vitamins B2, B6, C, niacin, and folate in blood were significantly lower in type 2DM subjects than in controls, independent of confounding factors; based on the evidence of increased urinary clearance of these vitamins, the lower levels were likely due to impaired reabsorption processes.

A Comparison of Agent-Based Models and the Parametric G-Formula for Causal Inference.

PubMed

Murray, Eleanor J; Robins, James M; Seage, George R; Freedberg, Kenneth A; Hernán, Miguel A

2017-07-15

Decision-making requires choosing from treatments on the basis of correctly estimated outcome distributions under each treatment. In the absence of randomized trials, 2 possible approaches are the parametric g-formula and agent-based models (ABMs). The g-formula has been used exclusively to estimate effects in the population from which data were collected, whereas ABMs are commonly used to estimate effects in multiple populations, necessitating stronger assumptions. Here, we describe potential biases that arise when ABM assumptions do not hold. To do so, we estimated 12-month mortality risk in simulated populations differing in prevalence of an unknown common cause of mortality and a time-varying confounder. The ABM and g-formula correctly estimated mortality and causal effects when all inputs were from the target population. However, whenever any inputs came from another population, the ABM gave biased estimates of mortality-and often of causal effects even when the true effect was null. In the absence of unmeasured confounding and model misspecification, both methods produce valid causal inferences for a given population when all inputs are from that population. However, ABMs may result in bias when extrapolated to populations that differ on the distribution of unmeasured outcome determinants, even when the causal network linking variables is identical. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Biomarkers for Uranium Risk Assessment for the Development of the CURE (Concerted Uranium Research in Europe) Molecular Epidemiological Protocol.

PubMed

Guéguen, Yann; Roy, Laurence; Hornhardt, Sabine; Badie, Christophe; Hall, Janet; Baatout, Sarah; Pernot, Eileen; Tomasek, Ladislav; Laurent, Olivier; Ebrahimian, Teni; Ibanez, Chrystelle; Grison, Stephane; Kabacik, Sylwia; Laurier, Dominique; Gomolka, Maria

2017-01-01

Despite substantial experimental and epidemiological research, there is limited knowledge of the uranium-induce health effects after chronic low-dose exposures in humans. Biological markers can objectively characterize pathological processes or environmental responses to uranium and confounding agents. The integration of such biological markers into a molecular epidemiological study would be a useful approach to improve and refine estimations of uranium-induced health risks. To initiate such a study, Concerted Uranium Research in Europe (CURE) was established, and involves biologists, epidemiologists and dosimetrists. The aims of the biological work package of CURE were: 1. To identify biomarkers and biological specimens relevant to uranium exposure; 2. To define standard operating procedures (SOPs); and 3. To set up a common protocol (logistic, questionnaire, ethical aspects) to perform a large-scale molecular epidemiologic study in uranium-exposed cohorts. An intensive literature review was performed and led to the identification of biomarkers related to: 1. retention organs (lungs, kidneys and bone); 2. other systems/organs with suspected effects (cardiovascular system, central nervous system and lympho-hematopoietic system); 3. target molecules (DNA damage, genomic instability); and 4. high-throughput methods for the identification of new biomarkers. To obtain high-quality biological materials, SOPs were established for the sampling and storage of different biospecimens. A questionnaire was developed to assess potential confounding factors. The proposed strategy can be adapted to other internal exposures and should improve the characterization of the biological and health effects that are relevant for risk assessment.

Association Between Zolpidem Use and Glaucoma Risk: A Taiwanese Population-Based Case-Control Study

PubMed Central

Ho, Yi-Hao; Chang, Yue-Cune; Huang, Wei-Cheng; Chen, Hsin-Yi; Lin, Che-Chen; Sung, Fung-Chang

2015-01-01

Background To date, the relationship between zolpidem use and subsequent risk of glaucoma in a Taiwanese population has not been assessed. Methods We used data from the National Health Insurance system to investigate whether zolpidem use was related to glaucoma risk. A 1:4 matched case-control study was conducted. The cases were patients newly diagnosed with glaucoma from 2001 to 2010. The controls were randomly selected non-glaucoma subjects matched by sex and age (±5 years). Zolpidem exposure and/or the average dosage of zolpidem used (mg/year) were evaluated. Medical comorbidities were considered as confounding factors. Multiple logistic regression models were used to evaluate the potential risk of zolpidem exposure on glaucoma with/without adjustment for the effects of confounding variables. Results The exposure rate of zolpidem use in the glaucoma group was significantly higher than that of the control group (2.8% vs. 2.0%, P < 0.0001). The adjusted odds ratio (OR) of the risk of glaucoma for those with zolpidem use vs. those without was 1.19 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02–1.38). Compared to non-zolpidem users, zolpidem users with an average dose of more than 200 mg/year had significantly increased risk of glaucoma (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.03–1.68). Conclusions This study suggests that the use of zolpidem might increase the risk of subsequent glaucoma. Further confirmatory studies are recommended to clarify this important issue. PMID:25720944

Association Between Zolpidem Use and Glaucoma Risk: A Taiwanese Population-Based Case-Control Study.

PubMed

Ho, Yi-Hao; Chang, Yue-Cune; Huang, Wei-Cheng; Chen, Hsin-Yi; Lin, Che-Chen; Sung, Fung-Chang

2014-08-23

Background: To date, the relationship between zolpidem use and subsequent risk of glaucoma in a Taiwanese population has not been assessed.Methods: We used data from the National Health Insurance system to investigate whether zolpidem use was related to glaucoma risk. A 1:4 matched case-control study was conducted. The cases were patients newly diagnosed with glaucoma from 2001 to 2010. The controls were randomly selected non-glaucoma subjects matched by sex and age (±5 years). Zolpidem exposure and/or the average dosage of zolpidem used (mg/year) were evaluated. Medical comorbidities were considered as confounding factors. Multiple logistic regression models were used to evaluate the potential risk of zolpidem exposure on glaucoma with/without adjustment for the effects of confounding variables.Results: The exposure rate of zolpidem use in the glaucoma group was significantly higher than that of the control group (2.8% vs. 2.0%, P < 0.0001). The adjusted odds ratio (OR) of the risk of glaucoma for those with zolpidem use vs. those without was 1.19 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.38). Compared to non-zolpidem users, zolpidem users with an average dose of more than 200 mg/year had significantly increased risk of glaucoma (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.03-1.68).Conclusions: This study suggests that the use of zolpidem might increase the risk of subsequent glaucoma. Further confirmatory studies are recommended to clarify this important issue.

Data-Driven Significance Estimation for Precise Spike Correlation

PubMed Central

Grün, Sonja

2009-01-01

The mechanisms underlying neuronal coding and, in particular, the role of temporal spike coordination are hotly debated. However, this debate is often confounded by an implicit discussion about the use of appropriate analysis methods. To avoid incorrect interpretation of data, the analysis of simultaneous spike trains for precise spike correlation needs to be properly adjusted to the features of the experimental spike trains. In particular, nonstationarity of the firing of individual neurons in time or across trials, a spike train structure deviating from Poisson, or a co-occurrence of such features in parallel spike trains are potent generators of false positives. Problems can be avoided by including these features in the null hypothesis of the significance test. In this context, the use of surrogate data becomes increasingly important, because the complexity of the data typically prevents analytical solutions. This review provides an overview of the potential obstacles in the correlation analysis of parallel spike data and possible routes to overcome them. The discussion is illustrated at every stage of the argument by referring to a specific analysis tool (the Unitary Events method). The conclusions, however, are of a general nature and hold for other analysis techniques. Thorough testing and calibration of analysis tools and the impact of potentially erroneous preprocessing stages are emphasized. PMID:19129298

Family functioning mediates adaptation in caregivers of individuals with Rett syndrome.

PubMed

Lamb, Amanda E; Biesecker, Barbara B; Umstead, Kendall L; Muratori, Michelle; Biesecker, Leslie G; Erby, Lori H

2016-11-01

The objective of this study was to investigate factors related to family functioning and adaptation in caregivers of individuals with Rett syndrome (RS). A cross-sectional quantitative survey explored the relationships between demographics, parental self-efficacy, coping methods, family functioning and adaptation. A forward-backward, step-wise model selection procedure was used to evaluate variables associated with both family functioning and adaptation. Analyses also explored family functioning as a mediator of the relationship between other variables and adaptation. Bivariate analyses (N=400) revealed that greater parental self-efficacy, a greater proportion of problem-focused coping, and a lesser proportion of emotion-focused coping were associated with more effective family functioning. In addition, these key variables were significantly associated with greater adaptation, as was family functioning, while controlling for confounders. Finally, regression analyses suggest family functioning as a mediator of the relationships between three variables (parental self-efficacy, problem-focused coping, and emotion-focused coping) with adaptation. This study demonstrates the potentially predictive roles of expectations and coping methods and the mediator role of family functioning in adaptation among caregivers of individuals with RS, a chronic developmental disorder. A potential target for intervention is strengthening of caregiver competence in the parenting role to enhance caregiver adaptation. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.