Projecting potential distribution of Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus Motschulsky and E. brandti (Harold) under historical climate and RCP 8.5 scenario.

PubMed

Ji, Yingchao; Luo, Wen; Zhang, Ganyu; Wen, Junbao

2017-08-22

Ailanthus altissima (Mill.) Swingle and its variant A. altissima var. Qiantouchun are notorious invasive weeds. Two weevils, Eucryptorrhynchus scrobiculatus (ESC) and E. brandti (EBR) are considered as candidates for biological control of A. altissima. The aim of this study was to model the potential distributions of ESC and EBR using CLIMEX 4.0. The projected potential distributions of ESC and EBR included almost all current distribution areas of A. altissima, except Southeast Asia. Under historical climate, potential distribution area of EBR is larger than that of ESC, 46.67 × 10 6  km 2 and 35.65 × 10 6  km 2 , respectively. For both ESC and EBR, climate change expanded the northern boundary of potential distributions northward approximately 600 km by the middle of 21st century, and 1000 km by the end of 21st century under RCP 8.5. However, the suitable range decreased to the south in the Southern Hemisphere because of heat stress. The modelled potential distributions of ESC and EBR in the United States demonstrated that the climate was suitable for both weevils. Therefore, considering only climate suitability, both ESC and EBR can be considered as potential biological control agents against A. altissima with some confidence that climatic conditions are likely suitable.

Habitat-Forming Bryozoans in New Zealand: Their Known and Predicted Distribution in Relation to Broad-Scale Environmental Variables and Fishing Effort

PubMed Central

Wood, Anna C. L.; Rowden, Ashley A.; Compton, Tanya J.; Gordon, Dennis P.; Probert, P. Keith

2013-01-01

Frame-building bryozoans occasionally occur in sufficient densities in New Zealand waters to generate habitat for other macrofauna. The environmental conditions necessary for bryozoans to generate such habitat, and the distributions of these species, are poorly known. Bryozoan-generated habitats are vulnerable to bottom fishing, so knowledge of species’ distributions is essential for management purposes. To better understand these distributions, presence records were collated and mapped, and habitat suitability models were generated (Maxent, 1 km2 grid) for the 11 most common habitat-forming bryozoan species: Arachnopusia unicornis , Cellaria immersa , Cellaria tenuirostris , Celleporariaagglutinans , Celleporinagrandis , Cinctipora elegans , Diaperoecia purpurascens , Galeopsis porcellanicus , Hippomenella vellicata , Hornerafoliacea , and Smittoideamaunganuiensis . The models confirmed known areas of habitat, and indicated other areas as potentially suitable. Water depth, vertical water mixing, tidal currents, and water temperature were useful for describing the distribution of the bryozoan species at broad scales. Areas predicted as suitable for multiple species were identified, and these ‘hotspots’ were compared to fishing effort data. This showed a potential conflict between fishing and the conservation of bryozoan-generated habitat. Fishing impacts are known from some sites, but damage to large areas of habitat-forming bryozoans is likely to have occurred throughout the study area. In the present study, spatial error associated with the use of historic records and the coarse native resolution of the environmental variables limited both the resolution at which the models could be interpreted and our understanding of the ecological requirements of the study species. However, these models show species distribution modelling has potential to further our understanding of habitat-forming bryozoan ecology and distribution. Importantly, comparisons between hotspots of suitable habitat and the distribution of bottom fishing in the study area highlight the need for management measures designed to mitigate the impact of seafloor disturbance on bryozoan-generated habitat in New Zealand waters. PMID:24086460

Habitat-forming bryozoans in New Zealand: their known and predicted distribution in relation to broad-scale environmental variables and fishing effort.

PubMed

Wood, Anna C L; Rowden, Ashley A; Compton, Tanya J; Gordon, Dennis P; Probert, P Keith

2013-01-01

Frame-building bryozoans occasionally occur in sufficient densities in New Zealand waters to generate habitat for other macrofauna. The environmental conditions necessary for bryozoans to generate such habitat, and the distributions of these species, are poorly known. Bryozoan-generated habitats are vulnerable to bottom fishing, so knowledge of species' distributions is essential for management purposes. To better understand these distributions, presence records were collated and mapped, and habitat suitability models were generated (Maxent, 1 km(2) grid) for the 11 most common habitat-forming bryozoan species: Arachnopusia unicornis, Cellaria immersa, Cellaria tenuirostris, Celleporaria agglutinans, Celleporina grandis, Cinctipora elegans, Diaperoecia purpurascens, Galeopsis porcellanicus, Hippomenella vellicata, Hornera foliacea, and Smittoidea maunganuiensis. The models confirmed known areas of habitat, and indicated other areas as potentially suitable. Water depth, vertical water mixing, tidal currents, and water temperature were useful for describing the distribution of the bryozoan species at broad scales. Areas predicted as suitable for multiple species were identified, and these 'hotspots' were compared to fishing effort data. This showed a potential conflict between fishing and the conservation of bryozoan-generated habitat. Fishing impacts are known from some sites, but damage to large areas of habitat-forming bryozoans is likely to have occurred throughout the study area. In the present study, spatial error associated with the use of historic records and the coarse native resolution of the environmental variables limited both the resolution at which the models could be interpreted and our understanding of the ecological requirements of the study species. However, these models show species distribution modelling has potential to further our understanding of habitat-forming bryozoan ecology and distribution. Importantly, comparisons between hotspots of suitable habitat and the distribution of bottom fishing in the study area highlight the need for management measures designed to mitigate the impact of seafloor disturbance on bryozoan-generated habitat in New Zealand waters.

Distributional potential of the Triatoma brasiliensis species complex at present and under scenarios of future climate conditions

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The Triatoma brasiliensis complex is a monophyletic group, comprising three species, one of which includes two subspecific taxa, distributed across 12 Brazilian states, in the caatinga and cerrado biomes. Members of the complex are diverse in terms of epidemiological importance, morphology, biology, ecology, and genetics. Triatoma b. brasiliensis is the most disease-relevant member of the complex in terms of epidemiology, extensive distribution, broad feeding preferences, broad ecological distribution, and high rates of infection with Trypanosoma cruzi; consequently, it is considered the principal vector of Chagas disease in northeastern Brazil. Methods We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distributions of all members of the complex, and evaluated the potential for suitable adjacent areas to be colonized; we also present first evaluations of potential for climate change-mediated distributional shifts. Models were developed using the GARP and Maxent algorithms. Results Models for three members of the complex (T. b. brasiliensis, N = 332; T. b. macromelasoma, N = 35; and T. juazeirensis, N = 78) had significant distributional predictivity; however, models for T. sherlocki and T. melanica, both with very small sample sizes (N = 7), did not yield predictions that performed better than random. Model projections onto future-climate scenarios indicated little broad-scale potential for change in the potential distribution of the complex through 2050. Conclusions This study suggests that T. b. brasiliensis is the member of the complex with the greatest distributional potential to colonize new areas: overall; however, the distribution of the complex appears relatively stable. These analyses offer key information to guide proactive monitoring and remediation activities to reduce risk of Chagas disease transmission. PMID:24886587

Lowland tapir distribution and habitat loss in South America.

PubMed

Cordeiro, Jose Luis Passos; Fragoso, José M V; Crawshaw, Danielle; Oliveira, Luiz Flamarion B

2016-01-01

The development of species distribution models (SDMs) can help conservation efforts by generating potential distributions and identifying areas of high environmental suitability for protection. Our study presents a distribution and habitat map for lowland tapir in South America. We also describe the potential habitat suitability of various geographical regions and habitat loss, inside and outside of protected areas network. Two different SDM approaches, MAXENT and ENFA, produced relative different Habitat Suitability Maps for the lowland tapir. While MAXENT was efficient at identifying areas as suitable or unsuitable, it was less efficient (when compared to the results by ENFA) at identifying the gradient of habitat suitability. MAXENT is a more multifaceted technique that establishes more complex relationships between dependent and independent variables. Our results demonstrate that for at least one species, the lowland tapir, the use of a simple consensual approach (average of ENFA and MAXENT models outputs) better reflected its current distribution patterns. The Brazilian ecoregions have the highest habitat loss for the tapir. Cerrado and Atlantic Forest account for nearly half (48.19%) of the total area lost. The Amazon region contains the largest area under protection, and the most extensive remaining habitat for the tapir, but also showed high levels of habitat loss outside protected areas, which increases the importance of support for proper management.

Lowland tapir distribution and habitat loss in South America

PubMed Central

Fragoso, José M.V.; Crawshaw, Danielle; Oliveira, Luiz Flamarion B.

2016-01-01

The development of species distribution models (SDMs) can help conservation efforts by generating potential distributions and identifying areas of high environmental suitability for protection. Our study presents a distribution and habitat map for lowland tapir in South America. We also describe the potential habitat suitability of various geographical regions and habitat loss, inside and outside of protected areas network. Two different SDM approaches, MAXENT and ENFA, produced relative different Habitat Suitability Maps for the lowland tapir. While MAXENT was efficient at identifying areas as suitable or unsuitable, it was less efficient (when compared to the results by ENFA) at identifying the gradient of habitat suitability. MAXENT is a more multifaceted technique that establishes more complex relationships between dependent and independent variables. Our results demonstrate that for at least one species, the lowland tapir, the use of a simple consensual approach (average of ENFA and MAXENT models outputs) better reflected its current distribution patterns. The Brazilian ecoregions have the highest habitat loss for the tapir. Cerrado and Atlantic Forest account for nearly half (48.19%) of the total area lost. The Amazon region contains the largest area under protection, and the most extensive remaining habitat for the tapir, but also showed high levels of habitat loss outside protected areas, which increases the importance of support for proper management. PMID:27672509

Predicting the potential distribution of the amphibian pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in East and Southeast Asia.

PubMed

Moriguchi, Sachiko; Tominaga, Atsushi; Irwin, Kelly J; Freake, Michael J; Suzuki, Kazutaka; Goka, Koichi

2015-04-08

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is the pathogen responsible for chytridiomycosis, a disease that is associated with a worldwide amphibian population decline. In this study, we predicted the potential distribution of Bd in East and Southeast Asia based on limited occurrence data. Our goal was to design an effective survey area where efforts to detect the pathogen can be focused. We generated ecological niche models using the maximum-entropy approach, with alleviation of multicollinearity and spatial autocorrelation. We applied eigenvector-based spatial filters as independent variables, in addition to environmental variables, to resolve spatial autocorrelation, and compared the model's accuracy and the degree of spatial autocorrelation with those of a model estimated using only environmental variables. We were able to identify areas of high suitability for Bd with accuracy. Among the environmental variables, factors related to temperature and precipitation were more effective in predicting the potential distribution of Bd than factors related to land use and cover type. Our study successfully predicted the potential distribution of Bd in East and Southeast Asia. This information should now be used to prioritize survey areas and generate a surveillance program to detect the pathogen.

TESTING INDICATOR GROUPS FOR RESERVE SELECTION: ARE RARE SPECIES AT RISK OF BEING LEFT OUT?

EPA Science Inventory

Indicators of biodiversity are potential tools for selecting areas for conservation when information about species' distributions is scarce. The concept involves selecting areas based on groups of conservation targets whose distributions represent more broadly defined patterns o...

The Distributional Ecology of the Maned Sloth: Environmental Influences on Its Distribution and Gaps in Knowledge

PubMed Central

Coutinho, Bruno Rocha; Zanon, Mariana Santos; Mendes, Sérgio Lucena

2014-01-01

The maned sloth Bradypus torquatus (Pilosa, Bradypodidae) is endemic to a small area in the Atlantic Forest of coastal Brazil. It has been listed as a threatened species because of its restricted geographic range, habitat loss and fragmentation, and declining populations. The major objectives of this study were to estimate its potential geographic distribution, the climatic conditions across its distributional range, and to identify suitable areas and potential species strongholds. We developed a model of habitat suitability for the maned sloth using two methods, Maxent and Mahalanobis Distance, based on 42 occurrence points. We evaluated environmental variable importance and the predictive ability of the generated distribution models. Our results suggest that the species distribution could be strongly influenced by environmental factors, mainly temperature seasonality. The modeled distribution of the maned sloth included known areas of occurrence in the Atlantic Forest (Sergipe, Bahia, Espírito Santo, and Rio de Janeiro), but did not match the observed distributional gaps in northern Rio de Janeiro, northern Espírito Santo or southern Bahia. Rather, the model showed that these areas are climatically suitable for the maned sloth, and thus suggests that factors other than climate might be responsible for the absence of species. Suitable areas for maned sloth were located mainly in the mountainous region of central Rio de Janeiro throughout Espírito Santo and to the coastal region of southern Bahia. We indicate 17 stronghold areas and recommended survey areas for the maned sloth. In addition, we highlight specific areas for conservation, including the current network protected areas. Our results can be applied for novel surveys and discovery of unknown populations, and help the selection of priority areas for management and conservation planning, especially of rare and relatively cryptic species directed associated with forested habitats. PMID:25338139

OhioView: Distribution of Remote Sensing Data Across Geographically Distributed Environments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramos, Calvin T.

1998-01-01

Various issues associated with the distribution of remote sensing data across geographically distributed environments are presented in viewgraph form. Specific topics include: 1) NASA education program background; 2) High level architectures, technologies and applications; 3) LeRC internal architecture and role; 4) Potential GIBN interconnect; 5) Potential areas of network investigation and research; 6) Draft of OhioView data model; and 7) the LeRC strategy and roadmap.

Predicting potential global distributions of two Miscanthus grasses: implications for horticulture, biofuel production, and biological invasions.

PubMed

Hager, Heather A; Sinasac, Sarah E; Gedalof, Ze'ev; Newman, Jonathan A

2014-01-01

In many regions, large proportions of the naturalized and invasive non-native floras were originally introduced deliberately by humans. Pest risk assessments are now used in many jurisdictions to regulate the importation of species and usually include an estimation of the potential distribution in the import area. Two species of Asian grass (Miscanthus sacchariflorus and M. sinensis) that were originally introduced to North America as ornamental plants have since escaped cultivation. These species and their hybrid offspring are now receiving attention for large-scale production as biofuel crops in North America and elsewhere. We evaluated their potential global climate suitability for cultivation and potential invasion using the niche model CLIMEX and evaluated the models' sensitivity to the parameter values. We then compared the sensitivity of projections of future climatically suitable area under two climate models and two emissions scenarios. The models indicate that the species have been introduced to most of the potential global climatically suitable areas in the northern but not the southern hemisphere. The more narrowly distributed species (M. sacchariflorus) is more sensitive to changes in model parameters, which could have implications for modelling species of conservation concern. Climate projections indicate likely contractions in potential range in the south, but expansions in the north, particularly in introduced areas where biomass production trials are under way. Climate sensitivity analysis shows that projections differ more between the selected climate change models than between the selected emissions scenarios. Local-scale assessments are required to overlay suitable habitat with climate projections to estimate areas of cultivation potential and invasion risk.

The pattern of spatial flood disaster region in DKI Jakarta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tambunan, M. P.

2017-02-01

The study of disaster flood area was conducted in DKI Jakarta Province, Indonesia. The aim of this research is: to study the spatial distribution of potential and actual of flood area The flood was studied from the geographic point of view using spatial approach, while the study of the location, the distribution, the depth and the duration of flooding was conducted using geomorphologic approach and emphasize on the detailed landform unit as analysis unit. In this study the landforms in DKI Jakarta have been a diversity, as well as spatial and temporal pattern of the actual and potential flood area. Landform at DKI Jakarta has been largely used as built up area for settlement and it facilities, thus affecting the distribution pattern of flooding area. The collection of the physical condition of landform in DKI Jakarta data prone were conducted through interpretation of the topographic map / RBI map and geological map. The flood data were obtained by survey and secondary data from Kimpraswil (Public Work) of DKI Jakarta Province for 3 years (1996, 2002, and 2007). Data of rainfall were obtained from BMKG and land use data were obtained from BPN DKI Jakarta. The analysis of the causal factors and distribution of flooding was made spatially and temporally using geographic information system. This study used survey method with a pragmatic approach. In this study landform as result from the analytical survey was settlement land use as result the synthetic survey. The primary data consist of landform, and the flood characteristic obtained by survey. The samples were using purposive sampling. Landform map was composed by relief, structure and material stone, and process data Landform map was overlay with flood map the flood prone area in DKI Jakarta Province in scale 1:50,000 to show. Descriptive analysis was used the spatial distribute of the flood prone area. The result of the study show that actual of flood prone area in the north, west and east of Jakarta lowland both in beach ridge, coastal alluvial plain, and alluvial plain; while the flood potential area on the slope is found flat and steep at alluvial fan, alluvial plain, beach ridge, and coastal alluvial plain in DKI Jakarta. Based on the result can be concluded that actual flood prone is not distributed on potential flood prone

A GIS model predicting potential distributions of a lineage: a test case on hermit spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys).

PubMed

Năpăruş, Magdalena; Kuntner, Matjaž

2012-01-01

Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics. Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive potential may be tested in foreseeing species distribution shifts due to habitat destruction and global climate change.

A GIS Model Predicting Potential Distributions of a Lineage: A Test Case on Hermit Spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys)

PubMed Central

Năpăruş, Magdalena; Kuntner, Matjaž

2012-01-01

Background Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters. Methodology/Principal Findings We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics. Conclusions Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive potential may be tested in foreseeing species distribution shifts due to habitat destruction and global climate change. PMID:22238692

Evaluating wilderness recreational opportunities: application of an impact matrix

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Parsons, David J.

1992-01-01

An inventory of the severity and spatial distribution of wilderness campsite impacts in Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks identified a total of 273 distinct nodes of campsites or “management areas.” A campsite impact matrix was developed to evaluate management areas based on total impacts (correlated to the total area of campsite development) and the density, or concentration, of impacts relative to each area's potentially campable area. The matrix is used to quantify potential recreational opportunities for wilderness visitors in a spectrum from areas offering low impact-dispersed camping to those areas offering high impact-concentrated camping. Wilderness managers can use this type of information to evaluate use distribution patterns, identify areas to increase or decrease use, and to identify areas needing site-specific regulations (e.g., one-night camping limits) to preserve wilderness resources and guarantee outstanding opportunities for solitude.

The potential impact of invasive woody oil plants on protected areas in China under future climate conditions.

PubMed

Dai, Guanghui; Yang, Jun; Lu, Siran; Huang, Conghong; Jin, Jing; Jiang, Peng; Yan, Pengbo

2018-01-18

Biodiesel produced from woody oil plants is considered a green substitute for fossil fuels. However, a potential negative impact of growing woody oil plants on a large scale is the introduction of highly invasive species into susceptible regions. In this study, we examined the potential invasion risk of woody oil plants in China's protected areas under future climate conditions. We simulated the current and future potential distributions of three invasive woody oil plants, Jatropha curcas, Ricinus communis, and Aleurites moluccana, under two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) up to 2050 using species distribution models. Protected areas in China that will become susceptible to these species were then identified using a spatial overlay analysis. Our results showed that by 2050, 26 and 41 protected areas would be threatened by these invasive woody oil plants under scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. A total of 10 unique forest ecosystems and 17 rare plant species could be potentially affected. We recommend that the invasive potential of woody oil plants be fully accounted for when developing forest-based biodiesel, especially around protected areas.

Climate Change and the Distribution of Neotropical Red-Bellied Toads (Melanophryniscus, Anura, Amphibia): How to Prioritize Species and Populations?

PubMed Central

Zank, Caroline; Becker, Fernando Gertum; Abadie, Michelle; Baldo, Diego; Maneyro, Raúl; Borges-Martins, Márcio

2014-01-01

We used species distribution modeling to investigate the potential effects of climate change on 24 species of Neotropical anurans of the genus Melanophryniscus. These toads are small, have limited mobility, and a high percentage are endangered or present restricted geographical distributions. We looked at the changes in the size of suitable climatic regions and in the numbers of known occurrence sites within the distribution limits of all species. We used the MaxEnt algorithm to project current and future suitable climatic areas (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a and B2a for 2020 and 2080) for each species. 40% of the species may lose over 50% of their potential distribution area by 2080, whereas 28% of species may lose less than 10%. Four species had over 40% of the currently known occurrence sites outside the predicted 2080 areas. The effect of climate change (decrease in climatic suitable areas) did not differ according to the present distribution area, major habitat type or phylogenetic group of the studied species. We used the estimated decrease in specific suitable climatic range to set a conservation priority rank for Melanophryniscus species. Four species were set to high conservation priority: M. montevidensis, (100% of its original suitable range and all known occurrence points potentially lost by 2080), M. sp.2, M. cambaraensis, and M. tumifrons. Three species (M. spectabilis, M. stelzneri, and M. sp.3) were set between high to intermediate priority (more than 60% decrease in area predicted by 2080); nine species were ranked as intermediate priority, while eight species were ranked as low conservation priority. We suggest that monitoring and conservation actions should be focused primarily on those species and populations that are likely to lose the largest area of suitable climate and the largest number of known populations in the short-term. PMID:24755937

Potential distribution of Mexican primates: modeling the ecological niche with the maximum entropy algorithm.

PubMed

Vidal-García, Francisca; Serio-Silva, Juan Carlos

2011-07-01

We developed a potential distribution model for the tropical rain forest species of primates of southern Mexico: the black howler monkey (Alouatta pigra), the mantled howler monkey (Alouatta palliata), and the spider monkey (Ateles geoffroyi). To do so, we applied the maximum entropy algorithm from the ecological niche modeling program MaxEnt. For each species, we used occurrence records from scientific collections, and published and unpublished sources, and we also used the 19 environmental coverage variables related to precipitation and temperature from WorldClim to develop the models. The predicted distribution of A. pigra was strongly associated with the mean temperature of the warmest quarter (23.6%), whereas the potential distributions of A. palliata and A. geoffroyi were strongly associated with precipitation during the coldest quarter (52.2 and 34.3% respectively). The potential distribution of A. geoffroyi is broader than that of the Alouatta spp. The areas with the greatest probability of presence of A. pigra and A. palliata are strongly associated with riparian vegetation, whereas the presence of A. geoffroyi is more strongly associated with the presence of rain forest. Our most significant contribution is the identification of areas with a high probability of the presence of these primate species, which is information that can be applied to planning future studies and then establishing criteria for the creation of areas to primate conservation in Mexico.

Potential distribution and conservation of the Colobosauroides carvalhoi Soares and Caramaschi, 1998: a rare and endemic lizard of Northeast Brazil.

PubMed

Magalhães-Júnior, A J C; Moura, G J B; Ribeiro, L B; Azevedo-Júnior, S M

2017-11-01

Ecological niche modeling has contributed to the investigation of the geographical distribution and conservation of rare or little recorded species. Therefore, we studied the known and potential distributions of Colobosauroides carvalhoi Soares and Caramaschi 1998 and discuss the implications for its conservation. Data were obtained by manual collections made in quarterly samplings in three different regions, considering the regions with occurrence records and surrounding areas. The known distribution was determined by occurrence records and literature data, and potential distribution was estimated with an ecological niche model by the MaxEnt algorithm. Twenty-five specimens were collected exclusively in forest formations of Caatinga and Caatinga-Cerrado. Our data corroborated the relative rarity of C. carvalhoi and reflected the biogeographical history of the group, where it is restricted to forest formations with milder environmental conditions. The occurrence records indicated new records of C. carvalhoi, but the known distribution value is compatible with a restricted distribution. The ecological niche model estimated few areas with environmental suitability for the species and corroborated the restricted and relict distribution patterns. Finally, the known and potential distribution values ​​were compatible with criteria for threatened species. These results suggest a worrisome scenario for C. carvalhoi conservation. However, the limited data about the species population do not allow the proper definition of its conservation status. Therefore, we suggest using potential distribution values with alternative criteria for redefining the conservation status of C. carvalhoi and the development of new studies that support a better assessment of its conservation aspects.

Crayfishes (Decapoda : Cambaridae) of Oklahoma: identification, distributions, and natural history.

PubMed

Morehouse, Reid L; Tobler, Michael

2013-01-01

We furnish an updated crayfish species list for the state of Oklahoma (United States of America), including an updated and illustrated dichotomous key. In addition, we include species accounts that summarize general characteristics, life coloration, similar species, distribution and habitat, life history, and syntopic species. Current and potential distributions were analyzed using ecological niche models to provide a critical resource for the identification of areas with conservation priorities and potential susceptibility to invasive species. Currently, Oklahoma harbors 30 species of crayfish, two of which were recently discovered. Eastern Oklahoma has the highest species diversity, as this area represents the western distribution extent for several species. The work herein provides baseline data for future work on crayfish biology and conservation in Oklahoma and surrounding states.

A Study on Grid-Square Statistics Based Estimation of Regional Electricity Demand and Regional Potential Capacity of Distributed Generators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kato, Takeyoshi; Sugimoto, Hiroyuki; Suzuoki, Yasuo

We established a procedure for estimating regional electricity demand and regional potential capacity of distributed generators (DGs) by using a grid square statistics data set. A photovoltaic power system (PV system) for residential use and a co-generation system (CGS) for both residential and commercial use were taken into account. As an example, the result regarding Aichi prefecture was presented in this paper. The statistical data of the number of households by family-type and the number of employees by business category for about 4000 grid-square with 1km × 1km area was used to estimate the floor space or the electricity demand distribution. The rooftop area available for installing PV systems was also estimated with the grid-square statistics data set. Considering the relation between a capacity of existing CGS and a scale-index of building where CGS is installed, the potential capacity of CGS was estimated for three business categories, i.e. hotel, hospital, store. In some regions, the potential capacity of PV systems was estimated to be about 10,000kW/km2, which corresponds to the density of the existing area with intensive installation of PV systems. Finally, we discussed the ratio of regional potential capacity of DGs to regional maximum electricity demand for deducing the appropriate capacity of DGs in the model of future electricity distribution system.

Overlooked habitat of a vulnerable gorgonian revealed in the Mediterranean and Eastern Atlantic by ecological niche modelling

PubMed Central

Boavida, Joana; Assis, Jorge; Silva, Inga; Serrão, Ester A.

2016-01-01

Factors shaping the distribution of mesophotic octocorals (30–200 m depth) remain poorly understood, potentially leaving overlooked coral areas, particularly near their bathymetric and geographic distributional limits. Yet, detailed knowledge about habitat requirements is crucial for conservation of sensitive gorgonians. Here we use Ecological Niche Modelling (ENM) relating thirteen environmental predictors and a highly comprehensive presence dataset, enhanced by SCUBA diving surveys, to investigate the suitable habitat of an important structuring species, Paramuricea clavata, throughout its distribution (Mediterranean and adjacent Atlantic). Models showed that temperature (11.5–25.5 °C) and slope are the most important predictors carving the niche of P. clavata. Prediction throughout the full distribution (TSS 0.9) included known locations of P. clavata alongside with previously unknown or unreported sites along the coast of Portugal and Africa, including seamounts. These predictions increase the understanding of the potential distribution for the northern Mediterranean and indicate suitable hard bottom areas down to >150 m depth. Poorly sampled habitats with predicted presence along Algeria, Alboran Sea and adjacent Atlantic coasts encourage further investigation. We propose that surveys of target areas from the predicted distribution map, together with local expert knowledge, may lead to discoveries of new P. clavata sites and identify priority conservation areas. PMID:27841263

Hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus spatial distribution sensitivity to climate change scenarios in Argentine Patagonia

PubMed Central

Carbajo, Aníbal E; Vera, Carolina; González, Paula LM

2009-01-01

Background Oligoryzomys longicaudatus (colilargo) is the rodent responsible for hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in Argentine Patagonia. In past decades (1967–1998), trends of precipitation reduction and surface air temperature increase have been observed in western Patagonia. We explore how the potential distribution of the hantavirus reservoir would change under different climate change scenarios based on the observed trends. Methods Four scenarios of potential climate change were constructed using temperature and precipitation changes observed in Argentine Patagonia between 1967 and 1998: Scenario 1 assumed no change in precipitation but a temperature trend as observed; scenario 2 assumed no changes in temperature but a precipitation trend as observed; Scenario 3 included changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed; Scenario 4 assumed changes in both temperature and precipitation trends as observed but doubled. We used a validated spatial distribution model of O. longicaudatus as a function of temperature and precipitation. From the model probability of the rodent presence was calculated for each scenario. Results If changes in precipitation follow previous trends, the probability of the colilargo presence would fall in the HPS transmission zone of northern Patagonia. If temperature and precipitation trends remain at current levels for 60 years or double in the future 30 years, the probability of the rodent presence and the associated total area of potential distribution would diminish throughout Patagonia; the areas of potential distribution for colilargos would shift eastwards. These results suggest that future changes in Patagonia climate may lower transmission risk through a reduction in the potential distribution of the rodent reservoir. Conclusion According to our model the rates of temperature and precipitation changes observed between 1967 and 1998 may produce significant changes in the rodent distribution in an equivalent period of time only in certain areas. Given that changes maintain for 60 years or double in 30 years, the hantavirus reservoir Oligoryzomys longicaudatus may contract its distribution in Argentine Patagonia extensively. PMID:19607707

Distribution of Hydrocarbon-Utilizing Microorganisms and Hydrocarbon Biodegradation Potentials in Alaskan Continental Shelf Areas

PubMed Central

Roubal, George; Atlas, Ronald M.

1978-01-01

Hydrocarbon-utilizing microorganisms were enumerated from Alaskan continental shelf areas by using plate counts and a new most-probable-number procedure based on mineralization of 14C-labeled hydrocarbons. Hydrocarbon utilizers were ubiquitously distributed, with no significant overall concentration differences between sampling regions or between surface water and sediment samples. There were, however, significant seasonal differences in numbers of hydrocarbon utilizers. Distribution of hydrocarbon utilizers within Cook Inlet was positively correlated with occurrence of hydrocarbons in the environment. Hydrocarbon biodegradation potentials were measured by using 14C-radiolabeled hydrocarbon-spiked crude oil. There was no significant correlation between numbers of hydrocarbon utilizers and hydrocarbon biodegradation potentials. The biodegradation potentials showed large seasonal variations in the Beaufort Sea, probably due to seasonal depletion of available nutrients. Non-nutrient-limited biodegradation potentials followed the order hexadecane > naphthalene ≫ pristane > benzanthracene. In Cook Inlet, biodegradation potentials for hexadecane and naphthalene were dependent on availability of inorganic nutrients. Biodegradation potentials for pristane and benzanthracene were restricted, probably by resistance to attack by available enzymes in the indigenous population. PMID:655706

Environmental, land cover and land use constraints on the distributional patterns of anurans: Leptodacylus species (Anura, Leptodactylidae) from Dry Chaco

PubMed Central

Medina, Regina Gabriela; Aráoz, Ezequiel

2016-01-01

Subtropical dry forests are among the most vulnerable biomes to land transformation at a global scale. Among them, the Dry Chaco suffers an accelerated change due to agriculture expansion and intensification. The Dry Chaco ecoregion is characterized by high levels of endemisms and species diversity, which are the result of a variety of climates and reliefs, allowing a wide variety of environments. The amphibian group exhibits a high richness in the Dry Chaco, which has been barely studied in relation to land cover changes. We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the potential geographic distribution of 10 Leptodactylus species (Anura, Leptodactylidae), which are mainly distributed within the Dry Chaco. We characterized these distributions environmentally, analyzed their overlap with land cover classes, and assessed their diversity of ecoregions. Also, we evaluated how these species potential distribution is affected by the transformation of land, and quantified the proportional area of the potential distribution in protected areas. We found that temperature seasonality is the main constraint to the occurrence of the species studied, whose main habitats are savannas, grasslands and croplands. The main threats to these species are the effects of climate change over spatial patterns of seasonality, which could affect their breeding and reproduction mode; the loss of their natural habitat; the exposure to contaminants used by intensive agriculture and their underrepresentation in protected areas. PMID:27833796

Environmental, land cover and land use constraints on the distributional patterns of anurans: Leptodacylus species (Anura, Leptodactylidae) from Dry Chaco.

PubMed

Medina, Regina Gabriela; Ponssa, Maria Laura; Aráoz, Ezequiel

2016-01-01

Subtropical dry forests are among the most vulnerable biomes to land transformation at a global scale. Among them, the Dry Chaco suffers an accelerated change due to agriculture expansion and intensification. The Dry Chaco ecoregion is characterized by high levels of endemisms and species diversity, which are the result of a variety of climates and reliefs, allowing a wide variety of environments. The amphibian group exhibits a high richness in the Dry Chaco, which has been barely studied in relation to land cover changes. We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the potential geographic distribution of 10 Leptodactylus species (Anura, Leptodactylidae), which are mainly distributed within the Dry Chaco. We characterized these distributions environmentally, analyzed their overlap with land cover classes, and assessed their diversity of ecoregions. Also, we evaluated how these species potential distribution is affected by the transformation of land, and quantified the proportional area of the potential distribution in protected areas. We found that temperature seasonality is the main constraint to the occurrence of the species studied, whose main habitats are savannas, grasslands and croplands. The main threats to these species are the effects of climate change over spatial patterns of seasonality, which could affect their breeding and reproduction mode; the loss of their natural habitat; the exposure to contaminants used by intensive agriculture and their underrepresentation in protected areas.

Climate Change Impacts on the Potential Distribution of Eogystia hippophaecolus in China.

PubMed

Li, Xue; Ge, Xuezhen; Chen, Linghong; Zhang, Linjing; Wang, Tao; Shixiang, Zong

2018-05-28

Seabuckthorn carpenter moth, Eogystia hippophaecolus (Hua, Chou, Fang, & Chen, 1990), is the most important boring pest of sea buckthorn (Hippophae rhamnoides L.) in the northwest of China. It is responsible for the death of large areas of H. rhamnoides forest, seriously affecting the ecological environment and economic development in northwestern China. To clarify the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus in China, the present study used the CLIMEX 4.0.0 model to project the potential distribution of the pest using historical climate data (1981-2010) and simulated future climate data (2011-2100) for China. Under historical climate condition, E. hippophaecolus would be found to be distributed mainly between 27° N - 51° N and 74° E - 134° E, with favorable and highly favorable habitats accounting for 35.2% of the total potential distribution. Under future climate conditions, E. hippophaecolus would be distributed mainly between 27° N - 53° N and 74° E - 134° E, with the possibility of moving in a northwest direction. Under these conditions, the proportion of the total area providing a favorable and highly favorable habitat may decrease to about 33%. These results will help to identify the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of E. hippophaecolus, thereby providing a theoretical basis for monitoring and early forecasting of pest outbreaks. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Incorporating abundance information and guiding variable selection for climate-based ensemble forecasting of species' distributional shifts.

PubMed

Tanner, Evan P; Papeş, Monica; Elmore, R Dwayne; Fuhlendorf, Samuel D; Davis, Craig A

2017-01-01

Ecological niche models (ENMs) have increasingly been used to estimate the potential effects of climate change on species' distributions worldwide. Recently, predictions of species abundance have also been obtained with such models, though knowledge about the climatic variables affecting species abundance is often lacking. To address this, we used a well-studied guild (temperate North American quail) and the Maxent modeling algorithm to compare model performance of three variable selection approaches: correlation/variable contribution (CVC), biological (i.e., variables known to affect species abundance), and random. We then applied the best approach to forecast potential distributions, under future climatic conditions, and analyze future potential distributions in light of available abundance data and presence-only occurrence data. To estimate species' distributional shifts we generated ensemble forecasts using four global circulation models, four representative concentration pathways, and two time periods (2050 and 2070). Furthermore, we present distributional shifts where 75%, 90%, and 100% of our ensemble models agreed. The CVC variable selection approach outperformed our biological approach for four of the six species. Model projections indicated species-specific effects of climate change on future distributions of temperate North American quail. The Gambel's quail (Callipepla gambelii) was the only species predicted to gain area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Conversely, the scaled quail (Callipepla squamata) was the only species predicted to lose area in climatic suitability across all three scenarios of ensemble model agreement. Our models projected future loss of areas for the northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) and scaled quail in portions of their distributions which are currently areas of high abundance. Climatic variables that influence local abundance may not always scale up to influence species' distributions. Special attention should be given to selecting variables for ENMs, and tests of model performance should be used to validate the choice of variables.

Factors affecting the distribution and abundance of exotic earthworms in the Huron Mountain Club, Upper Peninsula, Michigan

Treesearch

Lindsey M. Shartell; Erik A. Lilleskov; Andrew J. Storer; Lynette R. Potvin; Karl J. Romanowicz

2011-01-01

Exotic earthworms are becoming established in previously earthworm-free areas of the Great Lakes region with the potential to alter forest ecosystems. Understanding the factors controlling their distribution and abundance across the landscape will aid in efforts to determine their consequences and potential forest management solutions.

[Spatial distribution and potential ecological risk assessment of heavy metals in sediments of Yalu River estuary wetland mudflat.

PubMed

Zhang, Chun Peng; Li, Fu Xiang

2016-09-01

Kriging interpolation analysis was conducted with ArcGIS to find out the distribution characteristics of heavy metals concentrations in the surface sediments of the coastal wetland mudflat on the Yalu River estuary, environmental risk index and Hakanson potential ecological risk index were used to assess their extents of pollution in this area.The concentrations of heavy metals in the surface sediments of the study area were at a relatively high level compared with the typical estuarine wetland. The concentration of heavy metals in the east was higher than that in the west, and in the human activity area, the concentration was higher. Cu was found to contribute the most to the pollution status based on environmental risk index method, while Hg and Cd produced the greatest potential ecological harm according to Hankanson Potential ecological risk index method. The average potential ecological risk index (RI) of the Yalu River estuary wetland was 189.30 (ranged from 93.65-507.20), suggesting a moderate ecological risk. However, the potential ecological risk was highest in the east and should be treated as the major heavy metal pollution prevention area in the future.

Identification of potential rockfall source areas at a regional scale using a DEM-based geomorphometric analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loye, A.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Pedrazzini, A.

2009-10-01

The availability of high resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEM) at a regional scale enables the analysis of topography with high levels of detail. Hence, a DEM-based geomorphometric approach becomes more accurate for detecting potential rockfall sources. Potential rockfall source areas are identified according to the slope angle distribution deduced from high resolution DEM crossed with other information extracted from geological and topographic maps in GIS format. The slope angle distribution can be decomposed in several Gaussian distributions that can be considered as characteristic of morphological units: rock cliffs, steep slopes, footslopes and plains. A terrain is considered as potential rockfall sources when their slope angles lie over an angle threshold, which is defined where the Gaussian distribution of the morphological unit "Rock cliffs" become dominant over the one of "Steep slopes". In addition to this analysis, the cliff outcrops indicated by the topographic maps were added. They contain however "flat areas", so that only the slope angles values above the mode of the Gaussian distribution of the morphological unit "Steep slopes" were considered. An application of this method is presented over the entire Canton of Vaud (3200 km2), Switzerland. The results were compared with rockfall sources observed on the field and orthophotos analysis in order to validate the method. Finally, the influence of the cell size of the DEM is inspected by applying the methodology over six different DEM resolutions.

The Effects of Governmental Protected Areas and Social Initiatives for Land Protection on the Conservation of Mexican Amphibians

PubMed Central

Ochoa-Ochoa, Leticia; Urbina-Cardona, J. Nicolás; Vázquez, Luis-Bernardo; Flores-Villela, Oscar; Bezaury-Creel, Juan

2009-01-01

Traditionally, biodiversity conservation gap analyses have been focused on governmental protected areas (PAs). However, an increasing number of social initiatives in conservation (SICs) are promoting a new perspective for analysis. SICs include all of the efforts that society implements to conserve biodiversity, such as land protection, from private reserves to community zoning plans some of which have generated community-protected areas. This is the first attempt to analyze the status of conservation in Latin America when some of these social initiatives are included. The analyses were focused on amphibians because they are one of the most threatened groups worldwide. Mexico is not an exception, where more than 60% of its amphibians are endemic. We used a niche model approach to map the potential and real geographical distribution (extracting the transformed areas) of the endemic amphibians. Based on remnant distribution, all the species have suffered some degree of loss, but 36 species have lost more than 50% of their potential distribution. For 50 micro-endemic species we could not model their potential distribution range due to the small number of records per species, therefore the analyses were performed using these records directly. We then evaluated the efficiency of the existing set of governmental protected areas and established the contribution of social initiatives (private and community) for land protection for amphibian conservation. We found that most of the species have some proportion of their potential ecological niche distribution protected, but 20% are not protected at all within governmental PAs. 73% of endemic and 26% of micro-endemic amphibians are represented within SICs. However, 30 micro-endemic species are not represented within either governmental PAs or SICs. This study shows how the role of land conservation through social initiatives is therefore becoming a crucial element for an important number of species not protected by governmental PAs. PMID:19721719

Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike

PubMed Central

Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R.

2016-01-01

Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species. PMID:27732622

Current and Future Distribution of the Tropical Tree Cedrela odorata L. in Mexico under Climate Change Scenarios Using MaxLike.

PubMed

Estrada-Contreras, Israel; Equihua, Miguel; Laborde, Javier; Martínez Meyer, Enrique; Sánchez-Velásquez, Lázaro R

2016-01-01

Climate change is recognized as an important threat to global biodiversity because it increases the risk of extinction of many species on the planet. Mexico is a megadiverse country and native tree species such as red cedar (Cedrela odorata) can be used to maintain forests while helping mitigate climate change, because it is considered a fast growing pioneer species with great economic potential in the forestry industry. In order to assess possible shifts in areas suitable for C. odorata plantations in Mexico with ecological niche models, we used the MaxLike algorithm, climate variables, the geo-referenced records of this species, three general circulation models and three scenarios of future emissions. Results show a current potential distribution of 573,079 km2 with an average probability of occurrence of 0.93 (± 0.13). The potential distribution area could increase up to 650,356 km2 by 2060 according to the general circulation model HADCM3 B2, with an average probability of occurrence of 0.86 (± 0.14). Finally, we delimited an area of 35,377 km2 that has a high potential for the establishment of C. odorata plantations, by selecting those sites with optimal conditions for its growth that are outside protected areas and are currently devoid of trees. C. odorata has a significant potential to help in the mitigation of the effects of climate change. Using MaxLike we identified extense areas in Mexico suitable to increase carbon sequestration through plantations of this highly valued native tree species.

Spatial Distribution of Sand Fly Vectors and Eco-Epidemiology of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Transmission in Colombia.

PubMed

Ferro, Cristina; López, Marla; Fuya, Patricia; Lugo, Ligia; Cordovez, Juan Manuel; González, Camila

2015-01-01

Leishmania is transmitted by Phlebotominae insects that maintain the enzootic cycle by circulating between sylvatic and domestic mammals; humans enter the cycles as accidental hosts due to the vector's search for blood source. In Colombia, leishmaniasis is an endemic disease and 95% of all cases are cutaneous (CL), these cases have been reported in several regions of the country where the intervention of sylvatic areas by the introduction of agriculture seem to have an impact on the rearrangement of new transmission cycles. Our study aimed to update vector species distribution in the country and to analyze the relationship between vectors' distribution, climate, land use and CL prevalence. A database with geographic information was assembled, and ecological niche modeling was performed to explore the potential distribution of each of the 21 species of medical importance in Colombia, using thirteen bioclimatic variables, three topographic and three principal components derived from NDVI. Binary models for each species were obtained and related to both land use coverage, and a CL prevalence map with available epidemiological data. Finally, maps of species potential distribution were summed to define potential species richness in the country. In total, 673 single records were obtained with Lutzomyia gomezi, Lutzomyia longipalpis, Psychodopygus panamensis, Psathyromyia shannoni and Pintomyia evansi the species with the highest number of records. Eighteen species had significant models, considering the area under the curve and the jackknife results: L. gomezi and P. panamensis had the widest potential distribution. All sand fly species except for Nyssomyia antunesi are mainly distributed in regions with rates of prevalence between 0.33 to 101.35 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and 76% of collection data points fall into transformed ecosystems. Distribution ranges of sand flies with medical importance in Colombia correspond predominantly to disturbed areas, where the original land coverage is missing therefore increasing the domiciliation potential. We highlight the importance of the use of distribution maps as a tool for the development of strategies for prevention and control of diseases.

Spatial Distribution of Sand Fly Vectors and Eco-Epidemiology of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Transmission in Colombia

PubMed Central

Ferro, Cristina; López, Marla; Fuya, Patricia; Lugo, Ligia; Cordovez, Juan Manuel; González, Camila

2015-01-01

Background Leishmania is transmitted by Phlebotominae insects that maintain the enzootic cycle by circulating between sylvatic and domestic mammals; humans enter the cycles as accidental hosts due to the vector’s search for blood source. In Colombia, leishmaniasis is an endemic disease and 95% of all cases are cutaneous (CL), these cases have been reported in several regions of the country where the intervention of sylvatic areas by the introduction of agriculture seem to have an impact on the rearrangement of new transmission cycles. Our study aimed to update vector species distribution in the country and to analyze the relationship between vectors’ distribution, climate, land use and CL prevalence. Methods A database with geographic information was assembled, and ecological niche modeling was performed to explore the potential distribution of each of the 21 species of medical importance in Colombia, using thirteen bioclimatic variables, three topographic and three principal components derived from NDVI. Binary models for each species were obtained and related to both land use coverage, and a CL prevalence map with available epidemiological data. Finally, maps of species potential distribution were summed to define potential species richness in the country. Results In total, 673 single records were obtained with Lutzomyia gomezi, Lutzomyia longipalpis, Psychodopygus panamensis, Psathyromyia shannoni and Pintomyia evansi the species with the highest number of records. Eighteen species had significant models, considering the area under the curve and the jackknife results: L. gomezi and P. panamensis had the widest potential distribution. All sand fly species except for Nyssomyia antunesi are mainly distributed in regions with rates of prevalence between 0.33 to 101.35 cases per 100,000 inhabitants and 76% of collection data points fall into transformed ecosystems. Discussion Distribution ranges of sand flies with medical importance in Colombia correspond predominantly to disturbed areas, where the original land coverage is missing therefore increasing the domiciliation potential. We highlight the importance of the use of distribution maps as a tool for the development of strategies for prevention and control of diseases. PMID:26431546

Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus

PubMed Central

Peterson, A. Townsend; Samy, Abdallah M.

2017-01-01

Background Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades. Method We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070. Result The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions. PMID:29206879

Climate change influences on the potential geographic distribution of the disease vector tick Ixodes ricinus.

PubMed

Alkishe, Abdelghafar A; Peterson, A Townsend; Samy, Abdallah M

2017-01-01

Ixodes ricinus is a species of hard tick that transmits several important diseases in Europe and North Africa, including Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change is affecting the geographic distributions and abundances of arthropod vectors, which in turn influence the geographic distribution and epidemiology of associated vector-borne diseases. To date, few studies have investigated effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of I. ricinus at continental extents. Here, we assessed the potential distribution of I. ricinus under current and future climate conditions to understand how climate change will influence the geographic distribution of this important tick vector in coming decades. We used ecological niche modeling to estimate the geographic distribution of I. ricinus with respect to current climate, and then assessed its future potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. This approach integrates occurrence records of I. ricinus with six relevant environmental variables over a continental extent that includes Europe, North Africa, and the Middle East. Future projections were based on climate data from 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under 2 representative concentration pathway emissions scenarios (RCPs), for the years 2050 and 2070. The present and future potential distributions of I. ricinus showed broad overlap across most of western and central Europe, and in more narrow zones in eastern and northern Europe, and North Africa. Potential expansions were observed in northern and eastern Europe. These results indicate that I. ricinus populations could emerge in areas in which they are currently lacking, posing increased risks to human health in those areas. However, the future of I. ricinus ticks in some important regions such the Mediterranean was unclear owing to high uncertainty in model predictions.

Sexual differentiation in the distribution potential of northern jaguars (Panthera onca)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Boydston, Erin E.; Lopez Gonzalez, Carlos A.

2005-01-01

We estimated the potential geographic distribution of jaguars in the southwestern United States and northwestern Mexico by modeling the jaguar ecological niche from occurrence records. We modeled separately the distribution of males and females, assuming records of females probably represented established home ranges while male records likely included dispersal movements. The predicted distribution for males was larger than that for females. Eastern Sonora appeared capable for supporting male and female jaguars with potential range expansion into southeastern Arizona. New Mexico and Chihuahua contained environmental characteristics primarily limited to the male niche and thus may be areas into which males occasionally disperse.

Terra and Aqua satellites track tiger mosquito invasion: modelling the potential distribution of Aedes albopictus in north-eastern Italy

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The continuing spread of the Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in Europe is of increasing public health concern due to the potential risk of new outbreaks of exotic vector-borne diseases that this species can transmit as competent vector. We predicted the most favorable areas for a short term invasion of Ae. albopictus in north-eastern Italy using reconstructed daily satellite data time series (MODIS Land Surface Temperature maps, LST). We reconstructed more than 11,000 daily MODIS LST maps for the period 2001-09 (i.e. performed spatial and temporal gap-filling) in an Open Source GIS framework. We aggregated these LST maps over time and identified the potential distribution areas of Ae. albopictus by adapting published temperature threshold values using three variables as predictors (0°C for mean January temperatures, 11°C for annual mean temperatures and 1350 growing degree days filtered for areas with autumnal mean temperatures > 11°C). The resulting maps were integrated into the final potential distribution map and this was compared with the known current distribution of Ae. albopictus in north-eastern Italy. Results LST maps show the microclimatic characteristics peculiar to complex terrains, which would not be visible in maps commonly derived from interpolated meteorological station data. The patterns of the three indicator variables partially differ from each other, while winter temperature is the determining limiting factor for the distribution of Ae. albopictus. All three variables show a similar spatial pattern with some local differences, in particular in the northern part of the study area (upper Adige valley). Conclusions Reconstructed daily land surface temperature data from satellites can be used to predict areas of short term invasion of the tiger mosquito with sufficient accuracy (200 m pixel resolution size). Furthermore, they may be applied to other species of arthropod of medical interest for which temperature is a relevant limiting factor. The results indicate that, during the next few years, the tiger mosquito will probably spread toward northern latitudes and higher altitudes in north-eastern Italy, which will considerably expand the range of the current distribution of this species. PMID:21812983

Species-free species distribution models describe macroecological properties of protected area networks.

PubMed

Robinson, Jason L; Fordyce, James A

2017-01-01

Among the greatest challenges facing the conservation of plants and animal species in protected areas are threats from a rapidly changing climate. An altered climate creates both challenges and opportunities for improving the management of protected areas in networks. Increasingly, quantitative tools like species distribution modeling are used to assess the performance of protected areas and predict potential responses to changing climates for groups of species, within a predictive framework. At larger geographic domains and scales, protected area network units have spatial geoclimatic properties that can be described in the gap analysis typically used to measure or aggregate the geographic distributions of species (stacked species distribution models, or S-SDM). We extend the use of species distribution modeling techniques in order to model the climate envelope (or "footprint") of individual protected areas within a network of protected areas distributed across the 48 conterminous United States and managed by the US National Park System. In our approach we treat each protected area as the geographic range of a hypothetical endemic species, then use MaxEnt and 5 uncorrelated BioClim variables to model the geographic distribution of the climatic envelope associated with each protected area unit (modeling the geographic area of park units as the range of a species). We describe the individual and aggregated climate envelopes predicted by a large network of 163 protected areas and briefly illustrate how macroecological measures of geodiversity can be derived from our analysis of the landscape ecological context of protected areas. To estimate trajectories of change in the temporal distribution of climatic features within a protected area network, we projected the climate envelopes of protected areas in current conditions onto a dataset of predicted future climatic conditions. Our results suggest that the climate envelopes of some parks may be locally unique or have narrow geographic distributions, and are thus prone to future shifts away from the climatic conditions in these parks in current climates. In other cases, some parks are broadly similar to large geographic regions surrounding the park or have climatic envelopes that may persist into near-term climate change. Larger parks predict larger climatic envelopes, in current conditions, but on average the predicted area of climate envelopes are smaller in our single future conditions scenario. Individual units in a protected area network may vary in the potential for climate adaptation, and adaptive management strategies for the network should account for the landscape contexts of the geodiversity or climate diversity within individual units. Conservation strategies, including maintaining connectivity, assessing the feasibility of assisted migration and other landscape restoration or enhancements can be optimized using analysis methods to assess the spatial properties of protected area networks in biogeographic and macroecological contexts.

Optimal placement and sizing of wind / solar based DG sources in distribution system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guan, Wanlin; Guo, Niao; Yu, Chunlai; Chen, Xiaoguang; Yu, Haiyang; Liu, Zhipeng; Cui, Jiapeng

2017-06-01

Proper placement and sizing of Distributed Generation (DG) in distribution system can obtain maximum potential benefits. This paper proposes quantum particle swarm algorithm (QPSO) based wind turbine generation unit (WTGU) and photovoltaic (PV) array placement and sizing approach for real power loss reduction and voltage stability improvement of distribution system. Performance modeling of wind and solar generation system are described and classified into PQ\\PQ (V)\\PI type models in power flow. Considering the WTGU and PV based DGs in distribution system is geographical restrictive, the optimal area and DG capacity limits of each bus in the setting area need to be set before optimization, the area optimization method is proposed . The method has been tested on IEEE 33-bus radial distribution systems to demonstrate the performance and effectiveness of the proposed method.

Forecasting climate change impacts on the distribution of wetland habitat in the Midwestern United states.

PubMed

Garris, Heath W; Mitchell, Randall J; Fraser, Lauchlan H; Barrett, Linda R

2015-02-01

Shifting precipitation patterns brought on by climate change threaten to alter the future distribution of wetlands. We developed a set of models to understand the role climate plays in determining wetland formation on a landscape scale and to forecast changes in wetland distribution for the Midwestern United States. These models combined 35 climate variables with 21 geographic and anthropogenic factors thought to encapsulate other major drivers of wetland distribution for the Midwest. All models successfully recreated a majority of the variation in current wetland area within the Midwest, and showed that wetland area was significantly associated with climate, even when controlling for landscape context. Inferential (linear) models identified a consistent negative association between wetland area and isothermality. This is likely the result of regular inundation in areas where precipitation accumulates as snow, then melts faster than drainage capacity. Moisture index seasonality was identified as a key factor distinguishing between emergent and forested wetland types, where forested wetland area at the landscape scale is associated with a greater seasonal variation in water table depth. Forecasting models (neural networks) predicted an increase in potential wetland area in the coming century, with areas conducive to forested wetland formation expanding more rapidly than areas conducive to emergent wetlands. Local cluster analyses identified Iowa and Northeastern Missouri as areas of anticipated wetland expansion, indicating both a risk to crop production within the Midwest Corn Belt and an opportunity for wetland conservation, while Northern Minnesota and Michigan are potentially at risk of wetland losses under a future climate. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.

PubMed

Wang, Rulin; Li, Qing; He, Shisong; Liu, Yuan; Wang, Mingtian; Jiang, Gan

2018-01-01

Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China. Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa. The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

Motion/imagery secure cloud enterprise architecture analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeLay, John L.

2012-06-01

Cloud computing with storage virtualization and new service-oriented architectures brings a new perspective to the aspect of a distributed motion imagery and persistent surveillance enterprise. Our existing research is focused mainly on content management, distributed analytics, WAN distributed cloud networking performance issues of cloud based technologies. The potential of leveraging cloud based technologies for hosting motion imagery, imagery and analytics workflows for DOD and security applications is relatively unexplored. This paper will examine technologies for managing, storing, processing and disseminating motion imagery and imagery within a distributed network environment. Finally, we propose areas for future research in the area of distributed cloud content management enterprises.

Pet snakes illegally marketed in Brazil: Climatic viability and establishment risk.

PubMed

Fonseca, Érica; Solé, Mirco; Rödder, Dennis; de Marco, Paulo

2017-01-01

Invasive species are one among many threats to biodiversity. Brazil has been spared, generically, of several destructive invasive species. Reports of invasive snakes' populations are nonexistent, but the illegal pet trade might change this scenario. Despite the Brazilian laws forbid to import most animals, illegal trade is frequently observed and propagules are found in the wild. The high species richness within Brazilian biomes and accelerated fragmentation of natural reserves are a critical factors facilitating successful invasion. An efficient way to ease damages caused by invasive species is identifying potential invaders and consequent prevention of introductions. For the identification of potential invaders many factors need to be considered, including estimates of climate matching between areas (native vs. invaded). Ecological niche modelling has been widely used to predict potential areas for invasion and is an important tool for conservation biology. This study evaluates the potential geographical distribution and establishment risk of Lampropeltis getula (Linnaeus, 1766), Lampropeltis triangulum (Lacépède, 1789), Pantherophis guttatus (Linnaeus, 1766), Python bivittatus Kuhl, 1820 and Python regius (Shaw, 1802) through the Maximum Entropy modelling approach to estimate the potential distribution of the species within Brazil and qualitative evaluation of specific biological attributes. Our results suggest that the North and Midwest regions harbor major suitable areas. Furthermore, P. bivittatus and P. guttatus were suggested to have the highest invasive potential among the analyzed species. Potentially suitable areas for these species were predicted within areas which are highly relevant for Brazilian biodiversity, including several conservation units. Therefore, these areas require special attention and preventive measures should be adopted.

Pet snakes illegally marketed in Brazil: Climatic viability and establishment risk

PubMed Central

Rödder, Dennis; de Marco, Paulo

2017-01-01

Invasive species are one among many threats to biodiversity. Brazil has been spared, generically, of several destructive invasive species. Reports of invasive snakes’ populations are nonexistent, but the illegal pet trade might change this scenario. Despite the Brazilian laws forbid to import most animals, illegal trade is frequently observed and propagules are found in the wild. The high species richness within Brazilian biomes and accelerated fragmentation of natural reserves are a critical factors facilitating successful invasion. An efficient way to ease damages caused by invasive species is identifying potential invaders and consequent prevention of introductions. For the identification of potential invaders many factors need to be considered, including estimates of climate matching between areas (native vs. invaded). Ecological niche modelling has been widely used to predict potential areas for invasion and is an important tool for conservation biology. This study evaluates the potential geographical distribution and establishment risk of Lampropeltis getula (Linnaeus, 1766), Lampropeltis triangulum (Lacépède, 1789), Pantherophis guttatus (Linnaeus, 1766), Python bivittatus Kuhl, 1820 and Python regius (Shaw, 1802) through the Maximum Entropy modelling approach to estimate the potential distribution of the species within Brazil and qualitative evaluation of specific biological attributes. Our results suggest that the North and Midwest regions harbor major suitable areas. Furthermore, P. bivittatus and P. guttatus were suggested to have the highest invasive potential among the analyzed species. Potentially suitable areas for these species were predicted within areas which are highly relevant for Brazilian biodiversity, including several conservation units. Therefore, these areas require special attention and preventive measures should be adopted. PMID:28817630

Spatial quantification of the world population potentially exposed to Zika virus.

PubMed

Alaniz, Alberto J; Bacigalupo, Antonella; Cattan, Pedro E

2017-06-01

Zika virus is an emerging Flaviviridae virus, which has spread rapidly in the last few years. It has raised concern because it has been associated with fetus microcephaly when pregnant women are infected. The main vector is the mosquito Aedes aegypti , distributed in tropical areas. Niche modelling techniques were used to estimate the potential distribution area of A. aegypti. This was overlapped with human population density, determining areas of potential transmission risk worldwide. Afterwards, we quantified the population at risk according to risk level. The vector transmission risk is distributed mainly in Asia and Oceania on the shores of the Indian Ocean. In America, the risk concentrates in the Atlantic coast of South America and in the Caribbean Sea shores in Central and North America. In Africa, the major risk is concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic coasts of Central and South Africa. The world population under high and very high risk levels includes 2.261 billion people. These results illustrate Zika virus risk at the global level and provide maps to target the prevention and control measures especially in areas with higher risk, in countries with less sanitation and poorer resources. Many countries without previous vector reports could become active transmission zones in the future, so vector surveillance should be implemented or reinforced in these areas. © The Author 2017; all rights reserved. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association

Detecting latitudinal and altitudinal expansion of invasive bamboo Phyllostachys edulis and Phyllostachys bambusoides (Poaceae) in Japan to project potential habitats under 1.5°C-4.0°C global warming.

PubMed

Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Hibino, Kenshi; Numata, Ayaka; Oguro, Michio; Aiba, Masahiro; Shiogama, Hideo; Takayabu, Izuru; Nakashizuka, Tohru

2017-12-01

Rapid expansion of exotic bamboos has lowered species diversity in Japan's ecosystems by hampering native plant growth. The invasive potential of bamboo, facilitated by global warming, may also affect other countries with developing bamboo industries. We examined past (1975-1980) and recent (2012) distributions of major exotic bamboos ( Phyllostachys edulis and P. bambusoides ) in areas adjacent to 145 weather stations in central and northern Japan. Bamboo stands have been established at 17 sites along the latitudinal and altitudinal distributional limit during the last three decades. Ecological niche modeling indicated that temperature had a strong influence on bamboo distribution. Using mean annual temperature and sun radiation data, we reproduced bamboo distribution (accuracy = 0.93 and AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) = 0.92). These results infer that exotic bamboo distribution has shifted northward and upslope, in association with recent climate warming. Then, we simulated future climate data and projected the climate change impact on the potential habitat distribution of invasive bamboos under different temperature increases (i.e., 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C) relative to the preindustrial period. Potential habitats in central and northern Japan were estimated to increase from 35% under the current climate (1980-2000) to 46%-48%, 51%-54%, 61%-67%, and 77%-83% under 1.5°C, 2.0°C, 3.0°C, and 4.0°C warming levels, respectively. These infer that the risk areas can increase by 1.3 times even under a 1.5°C scenario and expand by 2.3 times under a 4.0°C scenario. For sustainable ecosystem management, both mitigation and adaptation are necessary: bamboo planting must be carefully monitored in predicted potential habitats, which covers most of Japan.

Shifts in the potential distribution of Sky Island plant communities in response to climate change

Treesearch

John A. Kupfer; Jeff Balmat; Jacqueline L. Smith

2005-01-01

To examine potential responses of sky island ecosystem pattern to projected climate changes, we used topographic and climatic data to develop a predictive model of plant community distribution in Saguaro National Park East, AZ. Increasing temperatures led to an upslope movement of communities and increased the area of desert scrub at the expense of montane conifer...

Tracking a Medically Important Spider: Climate Change, Ecological Niche Modeling, and the Brown Recluse (Loxosceles reclusa)

PubMed Central

Saupe, Erin E.; Papes, Monica; Selden, Paul A.; Vetter, Richard S.

2011-01-01

Most spiders use venom to paralyze their prey and are commonly feared for their potential to cause injury to humans. In North America, one species in particular, Loxosceles reclusa (brown recluse spider, Sicariidae), causes the majority of necrotic wounds induced by the Araneae. However, its distributional limitations are poorly understood and, as a result, medical professionals routinely misdiagnose brown recluse bites outside endemic areas, confusing putative spider bites for other serious conditions. To address the issue of brown recluse distribution, we employ ecological niche modeling to investigate the present and future distributional potential of this species. We delineate range boundaries and demonstrate that under future climate change scenarios, the spider's distribution may expand northward, invading previously unaffected regions of the USA. At present, the spider's range is centered in the USA, from Kansas east to Kentucky and from southern Iowa south to Louisiana. Newly influenced areas may include parts of Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, South Dakota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. These results illustrate a potential negative consequence of climate change on humans and will aid medical professionals in proper bite identification/treatment, potentially reducing bite misdiagnoses. PMID:21464985

Geographical limits to species-range shifts are suggested by climate velocity.

PubMed

Burrows, Michael T; Schoeman, David S; Richardson, Anthony J; Molinos, Jorge García; Hoffmann, Ary; Buckley, Lauren B; Moore, Pippa J; Brown, Christopher J; Bruno, John F; Duarte, Carlos M; Halpern, Benjamin S; Hoegh-Guldberg, Ove; Kappel, Carrie V; Kiessling, Wolfgang; O'Connor, Mary I; Pandolfi, John M; Parmesan, Camille; Sydeman, William J; Ferrier, Simon; Williams, Kristen J; Poloczanska, Elvira S

2014-03-27

The reorganization of patterns of species diversity driven by anthropogenic climate change, and the consequences for humans, are not yet fully understood or appreciated. Nevertheless, changes in climate conditions are useful for predicting shifts in species distributions at global and local scales. Here we use the velocity of climate change to derive spatial trajectories for climatic niches from 1960 to 2009 (ref. 7) and from 2006 to 2100, and use the properties of these trajectories to infer changes in species distributions. Coastlines act as barriers and locally cooler areas act as attractors for trajectories, creating source and sink areas for local climatic conditions. Climate source areas indicate where locally novel conditions are not connected to areas where similar climates previously occurred, and are thereby inaccessible to climate migrants tracking isotherms: 16% of global surface area for 1960 to 2009, and 34% of ocean for the 'business as usual' climate scenario (representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5) representing continued use of fossil fuels without mitigation. Climate sink areas are where climate conditions locally disappear, potentially blocking the movement of climate migrants. Sink areas comprise 1.0% of ocean area and 3.6% of land and are prevalent on coasts and high ground. Using this approach to infer shifts in species distributions gives global and regional maps of the expected direction and rate of shifts of climate migrants, and suggests areas of potential loss of species richness.

Potential effects of climate change on geographic distribution of the Tertiary relict tree species Davidia involucrata in China

PubMed Central

Tang, Cindy Q.; Dong, Yi-Fei; Herrando-Moraira, Sonia; Matsui, Tetsuya; Ohashi, Haruka; He, Long-Yuan; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Tomita, Mizuki; Li, Xiao-Shuang; Yan, Hai-Zhong; Peng, Ming-Chun; Hu, Jun; Yang, Ruo-Han; Li, Wang-Jun; Yan, Kai; Hou, Xiuli; Zhang, Zhi-Ying; López-Pujol, Jordi

2017-01-01

This study, using species distribution modeling (involving a new approach that allows for uncertainty), predicts the distribution of climatically suitable areas prevailing during the mid-Holocene, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and at present, and estimates the potential formation of new habitats in 2070 of the endangered and rare Tertiary relict tree Davidia involucrata Baill. The results regarding the mid-Holocene and the LGM demonstrate that south-central and southwestern China have been long-term stable refugia, and that the current distribution is limited to the prehistoric refugia. Given future distribution under six possible climate scenarios, only some parts of the current range of D. involucrata in the mid-high mountains of south-central and southwestern China would be maintained, while some shift west into higher mountains would occur. Our results show that the predicted suitable area offering high probability (0.5‒1) accounts for an average of only 29.2% among the models predicted for the future (2070), making D. involucrata highly vulnerable. We assess and propose priority protected areas in light of climate change. The information provided will also be relevant in planning conservation of other paleoendemic species having ecological traits and distribution ranges comparable to those of D. involucrata. PMID:28272437

Disentangling the major source areas for an intense aerosol advection in the Central Mediterranean on the basis of Potential Source Contribution Function modeling of chemical and size distribution measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petroselli, Chiara; Crocchianti, Stefano; Moroni, Beatrice; Castellini, Silvia; Selvaggi, Roberta; Nava, Silvia; Calzolai, Giulia; Lucarelli, Franco; Cappelletti, David

2018-05-01

In this paper, we combined a Potential Source Contribution Function (PSCF) analysis of daily chemical aerosol composition data with hourly aerosol size distributions with the aim to disentangle the major source areas during a complex and fast modulating advection event impacting on Central Italy in 2013. Chemical data include an ample set of metals obtained by Proton Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE), main soluble ions from ionic chromatography and elemental and organic carbon (EC, OC) obtained by thermo-optical measurements. Size distributions have been recorded with an optical particle counter for eight calibrated size classes in the 0.27-10 μm range. We demonstrated the usefulness of the approach by the positive identification of two very different source areas impacting during the transport event. In particular, biomass burning from Eastern Europe and desert dust from Sahara sources have been discriminated based on both chemistry and size distribution time evolution. Hourly BT provided the best results in comparison to 6 h or 24 h based calculations.

A Current Perspective on the Historical Geographic Distribution of the Endangered Muriquis (Brachyteles spp.): Implications for Conservation

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The muriqui (Brachyteles spp.), endemic to the Atlantic Forest of Brazil, is the largest primate in South America and is endangered, mainly due to habitat loss. Its distribution limits are still uncertain and need to be resolved in order to determine their true conservation status. Species distribution modeling (SDM) has been used to estimate potential species distributions, even when information is incomplete. Here, we developed an environmental suitability model for the two endangered species of muriqui (Brachyteles hypoxanthus and B. arachnoides) using Maxent software. Due to historical absence of muriquis, areas with predicted high habitat suitability yet historically never occupied, were excluded from the predicted historical distribution. Combining that information with the model, it is evident that rivers are potential dispersal barriers for the muriquis. Moreover, although the two species are environmentally separated in a large part of its distribution, there is a potential contact zone where the species apparently do not overlap. This separation might be due to either a physical (i.e., Serra da Mantiqueira mountains) or a biotic barrier (the species exclude one another). Therefore, in addition to environmental characteristics, physical and biotic barriers potentially shaped the limits of the muriqui historical range. Based on these considerations, we proposed the adjustment of their historical distributional limits. Currently only 7.6% of the predicted historical distribution of B. hypoxanthus and 12.9% of B. arachnoides remains forested and able to sustain viable muriqui populations. In addition to measurement of habitat loss we also identified areas for conservation concern where new muriqui populations might be found. PMID:26943910

Potential for spread of the white-nose fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) in the Americas: use of Maxent and NicheA to assure strict model transference.

PubMed

Escobar, Luis E; Lira-Noriega, Andrés; Medina-Vogel, Gonzalo; Townsend Peterson, A

2014-11-01

Emerging infectious diseases can present serious threats to wildlife, even to the point of causing extinction. Whitenose fungus (Pseudogymnoascus destructans) is causing an epizootic in bats that is expanding rapidly, both geographically and taxonomically. Little is known of the ecology and distributional potential of this intercontinental pathogen. We address this gap via ecological niche models that characterise coarse resolution niche differences between fungus populations on different continents, identifying areas potentially vulnerable to infection in South America. Here we explore a novel approach to identifying areas of potential distribution across novel geographic regions that avoids perilious extrapolation into novel environments. European and North American fungus populations show differential use of environmental space, but rather than niche differentiation, we find that changes are best attributed to climatic differences between the two continents. Suitable areas for spread of the pathogen were identified across southern South America; however caution should be taken to avoid underestimating the potential for spread of this pathogen in South America.

SELWAY-BITTERROOT WILDERNESS, IDAHO AND MONTANA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Toth, Margo I.; Zilka, Nicholas T.

1984-01-01

Mineral-resource studies of the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness in Idaho County, Idaho, and Missoula and Ravalli Counties, Montana, were carried out. Four areas with probable and one small area of substantiated mineral-resource potential were recognized. The areas of the Running Creek, Painted Rocks, and Whistling Pig plutons of Tertiary age have probable resource potential for molybdenum, although detailed geochemical sampling and surface investigations failed to recognize mineralized systems at the surface. Randomly distributed breccia zones along a fault in the vicinity of the Cliff mine have a substantiated potential for small silver-copper-lead resources.

Mineral potential modelling of gold and silver mineralization in the Nevada Great Basin - a GIS-based analysis using weights of evidence

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mihalasky, Mark J.

2001-01-01

The distribution of 2,690 gold-silver-bearing occurrences in the Nevada Great Basin was examined in terms of spatial association with various geological phenomena. Analysis of these relationships, using GIS and weights of evidence modelling techniques, has predicted areas of high mineral potential where little or no mining activity exists. Mineral potential maps for sedimentary (?disseminated?) and volcanic (?epithermal?) rock-hosted gold-silver mineralization revealed two distinct patterns that highlight two sets of crustal-scale geologic features that likely control the regional distribution of these deposit types. The weights of evidence method is a probability-based technique for mapping mineral potential using the spatial distribution of known mineral occurrences. Mineral potential maps predicting the distribution of gold-silver-bearing occurrences were generated from structural, geochemical, geomagnetic, gravimetric, lithologic, and lithotectonic-related deposit-indicator factors. The maps successfully predicted nearly 70% of the total number of known occurrences, including ~83% of sedimentary and ~60% of volcanic rock-hosted types. Sedimentary and volcanic rockhosted mineral potential maps showed high spatial correlation (an area cross-tabulation agreement of 85% and 73%, respectively) with expert-delineated mineral permissive tracts. In blind tests, the sedimentary and volcanic rock-hosted mineral potential maps predicted 10 out of 12 and 5 out of 5 occurrences, respectively. The key mineral predictor factors, in order of importance, were determined to be: geology (including lithology, structure, and lithotectonic terrane), geochemistry (indication of alteration), and geophysics. Areas of elevated sedimentary rock-hosted mineral potential are generally confined to central, north-central, and north-eastern Nevada. These areas form a conspicuous ?V?-shape pattern that is coincident with the Battle Mountain-Eureka (Cortez) and Carlin mineral trends and a segment of the Roberts Mountain thrust front, which bridges the southern ends of the trends. This pattern appears to delineate two well-defined, sub-parallel, northwest?southeast-trending crustal-scale structural zones. These features, here termed the ?Carlin? and ?Cortez? structural zones, are believed to control the regional-scale distribution of the sedimentary rock-hosted occurrences. Mineralizing processes were focused along these structural zones and significant ore deposits exist where they intersect other tectonic zones, favorable host rock-types, and (or) where appropriate physio-chemical conditions were present. The origin and age of the Carlin and Cortez structural zones are not well constrained, however, they are considered to be transcurrent features representing a long-lived, deep-crustal or mantle-rooted zone of weakness. Areas of elevated volcanic rock-hosted mineral potential are principally distributed along two broad and diffuse belts that trend (1) northwest-southeast across southwestern Nevada, parallel to the Sierra Nevada, and (2) northeast-southwest across northern Nevada, extending diagonally from the Sierra Nevada to southern Idaho. The first belt corresponds to the Walker Lane shear zone, a wide region of complex strike-slip faulting. The second, here termed the ?Humboldt shear(?) zone?, may represent a structural zone of transcurrent movement. Together, the Walker Lane and Humboldt shear(?) zones are believed to control the regional-scale distribution of volcanic rock-hosted occurrences. Volcanic rock-hosted mineralization was closely tied to the southward and westward migration of Tertiary magmatism across the region (which may have been mantle plume-driven). Both magmatic and mineralizing processes were localized and concentrated along these structural zones. The Humboldt shear(?) zone may have also affected the distribution of sedimentary rock-hosted mineralization along the Battle Mountain?Eureka (C

SANTA LUCIA WILDERNESS, AND GARCIA MOUNTAIN, BLACK MOUNTAIN, LA PANZA, MACHESNA MOUNTAIN, LOS MACHOS HILLS, BIG ROCKS, AND STANLEY MOUNTAIN ROADLESS AREAS, CALIFORNIA.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frizzell, Virgil A.; Kuizon, Lucia

1984-01-01

The Santa Lucia Wilderness Area and Garcia Mountain, Black Mountain, La Panza, Machesna Mountain, Los Machos Hills, Big Rocks, and Stanley Mountain Roadless Areas together occupy an area of about 218 sq mi in the Los Padres National Forest, California. On the basis of a mineral-resource evaluation a small area in the Black Mountain Roadless Area has a probable mineral-resource potential for uranium, and a small area in the Stanley Mountain Roadless Area has probable potential for low-grade mercury resources. Although petroleum resources occur in rocks similar to those found in the study area, no potential for petroleum resources was identified in the wilderness or any of the roadless areas. No resource potential for other mineral resources was identified in any of the areas. Detailed geologic mapping and geochemical sampling probably would increase knowledge about distribution and modes of occurrence of uranium and cinnabar in those areas, respectively.

Areas of high conservation value at risk by plant invaders in Georgia under climate change.

PubMed

Slodowicz, Daniel; Descombes, Patrice; Kikodze, David; Broennimann, Olivier; Müller-Schärer, Heinz

2018-05-01

Invasive alien plants (IAP) are a threat to biodiversity worldwide. Understanding and anticipating invasions allow for more efficient management. In this regard, predicting potential invasion risks by IAPs is essential to support conservation planning into areas of high conservation value (AHCV) such as sites exhibiting exceptional botanical richness, assemblage of rare, and threatened and/or endemic plant species. Here, we identified AHCV in Georgia, a country showing high plant richness, and assessed the susceptibility of these areas to colonization by IAPs under present and future climatic conditions. We used actual protected areas and areas of high plant endemism (identified using occurrences of 114 Georgian endemic plant species) as proxies for AHCV. Then, we assessed present and future potential distribution of 27 IAPs using species distribution models under four climate change scenarios and stacked single-species potential distribution into a consensus map representing IAPs richness. We evaluated present and future invasion risks in AHCV using IAPs richness as a metric of susceptibility. We show that the actual protected areas cover only 9.4% of the areas of high plant endemism in Georgia. IAPs are presently located at lower elevations around the large urban centers and in western Georgia. We predict a shift of IAPs toward eastern Georgia and higher altitudes and an increased susceptibility of AHCV to IAPs under future climate change. Our study provides a good baseline for decision makers and stakeholders on where and how resources should be invested in the most efficient way to protect Georgia's high plant richness from IAPs.

The potential distribution of the Russian wheat aphid (Diuraphis noxia): an updated distribution model including irrigation improves model fit for predicting potential spread.

PubMed

Avila, G A; Davidson, M; van Helden, M; Fagan, L

2018-04-18

Diuraphis noxia (Kurdjumov), Russian wheat aphid, is one of the world's most invasive and economically important agricultural pests of wheat and barley. In May 2016, it was found for the first time in Australia, with further sampling confirming it was widespread throughout south-eastern regions. Russian wheat aphid is not yet present in New Zealand. The impacts of this pest if it establishes in New Zealand, could result in serious control problems in wheat- and barley-growing regions. To evaluate whether D. noxia could establish populations in New Zealand we used the climate modelling software CLIMEX to locate where potential viable populations might occur. We re-parameterised the existing CLIMEX model by Hughes and Maywald (1990) by improving the model fit using currently known distribution records of D. noxia, and we also considered the role of irrigation into the potential spread of this invasive insect. The updated model now fits the current known distribution better than the previous Hughes and Maywald CLIMEX model, particularly in temperate and Mediterranean areas in Australia and Europe; and in more semi-arid areas in north-western China and Middle Eastern countries. Our model also highlights new climatically suitable areas for the establishment of D. noxia, not previously reported, including parts of France, the UK and New Zealand. Our results suggest that, when suitable host plants are present, Russian wheat aphid could establish in these regions. The new CLIMEX projections in the present study are useful tools to inform risk assessments and target surveillance and monitoring efforts for identifying susceptible areas to invasion by Russian wheat aphid.

Modelling the current and potential future distributions of the sunn pest Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae) using CLIMEX.

PubMed

Aljaryian, Rasha; Kumar, Lalit; Taylor, Subhashni

2016-10-01

The sunn pest, Eurygaster integriceps (Hemiptera: Scutelleridae), is an economically significant pest throughout Western Asia and Eastern Europe. This study was conducted to examine the possible risk posed by the influence of climate change on its spread. CLIMEX software was used to model its current global distribution. Future invasion potential was investigated using two global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR), under A1B and A2 emission scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Dry to temperate climatic areas favour sunn pests. The potential global range for E. integriceps is expected to extend further polewards between latitudes 60° N and 70° N. Northern Europe and Canada will be at risk of sunn pest invasion as cold stress boundaries recede under the emission scenarios of these models. However, current highly suitable areas, such as South Africa and central Australia, will contract where precipitation is projected to decrease substantially with increased heat stress. Estimating the sunn pest's potential geographic distribution and detecting its climatic limits can provide useful information for management strategies and allow biosecurity authorities to plan ahead and reduce the expected harmful economic consequences by identifying the new areas for pest invasion. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2016 Society of Chemical Industry.

Potential effects of climate change on the risk of accidents with poisonous species of the genus Tityus (Scorpiones, Buthidae) in Argentina.

PubMed

Martinez, Pablo Ariel; Andrade, Mayane Alves; Bidau, Claudio Juan

2018-06-01

The temporal pattern of co-occurrence of human beings and venomous species (scorpions, spiders, snakes) is changing. Thus, the temporal pattern of areas with risk of accidents with such species tends to become dynamic in time. We analyze the areas of occurrence of species of Tityus in Argentina and assess the impact of global climate change on their area of distribution by the construction of risk maps. Using data of occurrence of the species and climatic variables, we constructed models of species distribution (SMDs) under current and future climatic conditions. We also created maps that allow the detection of temporal shifts in the distribution patterns of each Tityus species. Finally, we developed risk maps for the analyzed species. Our results predict that climate change will have an impact on the distribution of Tityus species which will clearly expand to more southern latitudes, with the exception of T. argentinus. T. bahiensis, widely distributed in Brazil, showed a considerable increase of its potential area (ca. 37%) with future climate change. The species T. confluens and T. trivittatus that cause the highest number of accidents in Argentina are expected to show significant changes of their distributions in future scenarios. The former fact is worrying because Buenos Aires province is the more densely populated district in Argentina thus iable to become the most affected by T. trivittatus. These alterations of distributional patterns can lead to amplify the accident risk zones of venomous species, becoming an important subject of concern for public health policies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Validation of a Numerical Program for Analyzing Kinetic Energy Potential in the Bangka Strait, North Sulawesi, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rompas, P. T. D.; Taunaumang, H.; Sangari, F. J.

2018-02-01

The paper presents validation of the numerical program that computes the distribution of marine current velocities in the Bangka strait and the kinetic energy potential in the form the distributions of available power per area in the Bangka strait. The numerical program used the RANS model where the pressure distribution in the vertical assumed to be hydrostatic. The 2D and 3D numerical program results compared with the measurement results that are observation results to the moment conditions of low and high tide currents. It found no different significant between the numerical results and the measurement results. There are 0.97-2.2 kW/m2 the kinetic energy potential in the form the distributions of available power per area in the Bangka strait when low tide currents, whereas when high tide currents of 1.02-2.1 kW/m2. The results show that to be enabling the installation of marine current turbines for construction of power plant in the Bangka strait, North Sulawesi, Indonesia.

Estimation of potential distribution of gas hydrate in the northern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chunjuan; Du, Dewen; Zhu, Zhiwei; Liu, Yonggang; Yan, Shijuan; Yang, Gang

2010-05-01

Gas hydrate research has significant importance for securing world energy resources, and has the potential to produce considerable economic benefits. Previous studies have shown that the South China Sea is an area that harbors gas hydrates. However, there is a lack of systematic investigations and understanding on the distribution of gas hydrate throughout the region. In this paper, we applied mineral resource quantitative assessment techniques to forecast and estimate the potential distribution of gas hydrate resources in the northern South China Sea. However, current hydrate samples from the South China Sea are too few to produce models of occurrences. Thus, according to similarity and contrast principles of mineral outputs, we can use a similar hydrate-mining environment with sufficient gas hydrate data as a testing ground for modeling northern South China Sea gas hydrate conditions. We selected the Gulf of Mexico, which has extensively studied gas hydrates, to develop predictive models of gas hydrate distributions, and to test errors in the model. Then, we compared the existing northern South China Sea hydrate-mining data with the Gulf of Mexico characteristics, and collated the relevant data into the model. Subsequently, we applied the model to the northern South China Sea to obtain the potential gas hydrate distribution of the area, and to identify significant exploration targets. Finally, we evaluated the reliability of the predicted results. The south seabed area of Taiwan Bank is recommended as a priority exploration target. The Zhujiang Mouth, Southeast Hainan, and Southwest Taiwan Basins, including the South Bijia Basin, also are recommended as exploration target areas. In addition, the method in this paper can provide a useful predictive approach for gas hydrate resource assessment, which gives a scientific basis for construction and implementation of long-term planning for gas hydrate exploration and general exploitation of the seabed of China.

Spatio-temporal patterns of key exploited marine species in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea.

PubMed

Morfin, Marie; Fromentin, Jean-Marc; Jadaud, Angélique; Bez, Nicolas

2012-01-01

This study analyzes the temporal variability/stability of the spatial distributions of key exploited species in the Gulf of Lions (Northwestern Mediterranean Sea). To do so, we analyzed data from the MEDITS bottom-trawl scientific surveys from 1994 to 2010 at 66 fixed stations and selected 12 key exploited species. We proposed a geostatistical approach to handle zero-inflated and non-stationary distributions and to test for the temporal stability of the spatial structures. Empirical Orthogonal Functions and other descriptors were then applied to investigate the temporal persistence and the characteristics of the spatial patterns. The spatial structure of the distribution (i.e. the pattern of spatial autocorrelation) of the 12 key species studied remained highly stable over the time period sampled. The spatial distributions of all species obtained through kriging also appeared to be stable over time, while each species displayed a specific spatial distribution. Furthermore, adults were generally more densely concentrated than juveniles and occupied areas included in the distribution of juveniles. Despite the strong persistence of spatial distributions, we also observed that the area occupied by each species was correlated to its abundance: the more abundant the species, the larger the occupation area. Such a result tends to support MacCall's basin theory, according to which density-dependence responses would drive the expansion of those 12 key species in the Gulf of Lions. Further analyses showed that these species never saturated their habitats, suggesting that they are below their carrying capacity; an assumption in agreement with the overexploitation of several of these species. Finally, the stability of their spatial distributions over time and their potential ability to diffuse outside their main habitats give support to Marine Protected Areas as a potential pertinent management tool.

Distribution and infestation rate of cyst nematodes (Tylenchida: Heteroderidae) in cabbage growing areas in Samsun

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Information concerning the occurrence and distribution of cyst nematodes (Heterodera spp.) in Samsun, Turkey is needed to assess their potential to cause economic damage on many crop plants. Surveys on the distribution and infestation rates of cyst nematodes in cabbage fields in Samsun were conducte...

Hydrocarbon prospectivity assessment of the Southern Pattani Trough, Gulf of Thailand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mountford, N.

The Pattani Trough is an elongate north to south basin in the Gulf of Thailand offshore area that developed from Oligocene times onward. Numerous hydrocarbon discoveries, mainly gas, have been made within the Tertiary stratigraphic section in areas adjacent to the depocenter of the basin, but only dry holes have been drilled on the extreme basin margins and flanking platform areas. The southern Pattani Trough represents a [open quotes]transition zone[close quotes] in terms of potential hydrocarbon prospectivity between the low potential/high exploration risk basin marginal areas, and the high potential/low exploration risk basin marginal area. The development of hydrocarbon accumulationmore » potential within the southern Pattani Trough can be related to a number of major controlling factors. These include structure, which on a regional scale shows a marked influence of tectonic regime on depositional system development, and on a more local scale determines trap development; stratigraphy, which determines reservoir geometry and potential hydrocarbon source rock facies distribution; petrology, which exerts a major control on depth related reservoir quality; overpressure development, which controls local migration pathways for generated hydrocarbons, and locally provides very efficient trap seals; geochemical factors, related to potential source facies distribution, hydrocarbon type; and thermal maturation of the section. The above factors have been combined to define low-, medium-, and high-risk exploration [open quotes]play fairways[close quotes] within the prospectivity transition zone of the southern Pattani Trough.« less

Phosphorus fractionation and distribution in sediments from wetlands and canals of a water conservation area in the Florida Everglades

Treesearch

Qingren Wang; Yuncong Li; Ying Ouyang

2011-01-01

Phosphorus (P) fractionation and distribution in sediments are of great concern in the Florida Everglades ecosystem because potential eutrophication of surface waters usually results from P external loading and stability. Intact core sediment samples were collected to a depth of 35 cm from wetlands and canals across Water Conservation Area 3 (WCA‐3) of the Florida...

Present and Potential Future Distribution of Common Vampire Bats in the Americas and the Associated Risk to Cattle

PubMed Central

Lee, Dana N.; Papeş, Monica; Van Den Bussche, Ronald A.

2012-01-01

Success of the cattle industry in Latin America is impeded by the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus, through decreases in milk production and mass gain and increased risk of secondary infection and rabies. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the current potential distribution of D. rotundus and the future distribution of the species for the years 2030, 2050, and 2080 based on the A2, A1B, and B1 climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We then combined the present day potential distribution with cattle density estimates to identify areas where cattle are at higher risk for the negative impacts due to D. rotundus. We evaluated our risk prediction by plotting 17 documented outbreaks of cattle rabies. Our results indicated highly suitable habitat for D. rotundus occurs throughout most of Mexico and Central America as well as portions of Venezuela, Guyana, the Brazilian highlands, western Ecuador, northern Argentina, and east of the Andes in Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay. With future climate projections suitable habitat for D. rotundus is predicted in these same areas and additional areas in French Guyana, Suriname, Venezuela and Columbia; however D. rotundus are not likely to expand into the U.S. because of inadequate ‘temperature seasonality.’ Areas with large portions of cattle at risk include Mexico, Central America, Paraguay, and Brazil. Twelve of 17 documented cattle rabies outbreaks were represented in regions predicted at risk. Our present day and future predictions can help authorities focus rabies prevention efforts and inform cattle ranchers which areas are at an increased risk of cattle rabies because it has suitable habitat for D. rotundus. PMID:22900023

Present and potential future distribution of common vampire bats in the Americas and the associated risk to cattle.

PubMed

Lee, Dana N; Papeş, Monica; Van den Bussche, Ronald A

2012-01-01

Success of the cattle industry in Latin America is impeded by the common vampire bat, Desmodus rotundus, through decreases in milk production and mass gain and increased risk of secondary infection and rabies. We used ecological niche modeling to predict the current potential distribution of D. rotundus and the future distribution of the species for the years 2030, 2050, and 2080 based on the A2, A1B, and B1 climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. We then combined the present day potential distribution with cattle density estimates to identify areas where cattle are at higher risk for the negative impacts due to D. rotundus. We evaluated our risk prediction by plotting 17 documented outbreaks of cattle rabies. Our results indicated highly suitable habitat for D. rotundus occurs throughout most of Mexico and Central America as well as portions of Venezuela, Guyana, the Brazilian highlands, western Ecuador, northern Argentina, and east of the Andes in Peru, Bolivia, and Paraguay. With future climate projections suitable habitat for D. rotundus is predicted in these same areas and additional areas in French Guyana, Suriname, Venezuela and Columbia; however D. rotundus are not likely to expand into the U.S. because of inadequate 'temperature seasonality.' Areas with large portions of cattle at risk include Mexico, Central America, Paraguay, and Brazil. Twelve of 17 documented cattle rabies outbreaks were represented in regions predicted at risk. Our present day and future predictions can help authorities focus rabies prevention efforts and inform cattle ranchers which areas are at an increased risk of cattle rabies because it has suitable habitat for D. rotundus.

Impact of particles on sediment accumulation in a drinking water distribution system.

PubMed

Vreeburg, J H G; Schippers, D; Verberk, J Q J C; van Dijk, J C

2008-10-01

Discolouration of drinking water is one of the main reasons customers complain to their water company. Though corrosion of cast iron is often seen as the main source for this problem, the particles originating from the treatment plant play an important and potentially dominant role in the generation of a discolouration risk in drinking water distribution systems. To investigate this thesis a study was performed in a drinking water distribution system. In two similar isolated network areas the effect of particles on discolouration risk was studied with particle counting, the Resuspension Potential Method (RPM) and assessment of the total accumulated sediment. In the 'Control Area', supplied with normal drinking water, the discolouration risk was regenerated within 1.5 year. In the 'Research Area', supplied with particle-free water, this will take 10-15 years. An obvious remedy for controlling the discolouration risk is to improve the treatment with respect to the short peaks that are caused by particle breakthrough.

GIS Based Distributed Runoff Predictions in Variable Source Area Watersheds Employing the SCS-Curve Number

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steenhuis, T. S.; Mendoza, G.; Lyon, S. W.; Gerard Marchant, P.; Walter, M. T.; Schneiderman, E.

2003-04-01

Because the traditional Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) approach continues to be ubiquitously used in GIS-BASED water quality models, new application methods are needed that are consistent with variable source area (VSA) hydrological processes in the landscape. We developed within an integrated GIS modeling environment a distributed approach for applying the traditional SCS-CN equation to watersheds where VSA hydrology is a dominant process. Spatial representation of hydrologic processes is important for watershed planning because restricting potentially polluting activities from runoff source areas is fundamental to controlling non-point source pollution. The methodology presented here uses the traditional SCS-CN method to predict runoff volume and spatial extent of saturated areas and uses a topographic index to distribute runoff source areas through watersheds. The resulting distributed CN-VSA method was incorporated in an existing GWLF water quality model and applied to sub-watersheds of the Delaware basin in the Catskill Mountains region of New York State. We found that the distributed CN-VSA approach provided a physically-based method that gives realistic results for watersheds with VSA hydrology.

Refining climate change projections for organisms with low dispersal abilities: a case study of the Caspian whip snake.

PubMed

Sahlean, Tiberiu C; Gherghel, Iulian; Papeş, Monica; Strugariu, Alexandru; Zamfirescu, Ştefan R

2014-01-01

Climate warming is one of the most important threats to biodiversity. Ectothermic organisms such as amphibians and reptiles are especially vulnerable as climatic conditions affect them directly. Ecological niche models (ENMs) are increasingly popular in ecological studies, but several drawbacks exist, including the limited ability to account for the dispersal potential of the species. In this study, we use ENMs to explore the impact of global climate change on the Caspian whip snake (Dolichophis caspius) as model for organisms with low dispersal abilities and to quantify dispersal to novel areas using GIS techniques. Models generated using Maxent 3.3.3 k and GARP for current distribution were projected on future climatic scenarios. A cost-distance analysis was run in ArcGIS 10 using geomorphological features, ecological conditions, and human footprint as "costs" to dispersal of the species to obtain a Maximum Dispersal Range (MDR) estimate. All models developed were statistically significant (P<0.05) and recovered the currently known distribution of D. caspius. Models projected on future climatic conditions using Maxent predicted a doubling of suitable climatic area, while GARP predicted a more conservative expansion. Both models agreed on an expansion of suitable area northwards, with minor decreases at the southern distribution limit. The MDR area calculated using the Maxent model represented a third of the total area of the projected model. The MDR based on GARP models recovered only about 20% of the total area of the projected model. Thus, incorporating measures of species' dispersal abilities greatly reduced estimated area of potential future distributions.

Distribution of ectomycorrhizal and pathogenic fungi in soil along a vegetational change from Japanese black pine (Pinus thunbergii) to black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia).

PubMed

Taniguchi, Takeshi; Kataoka, Ryota; Tamai, Shigenobu; Yamanaka, Norikazu; Futai, Kazuyoshi

2009-04-01

The nitrogen-fixing tree black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia L.) seems to affect ectomycorrhizal (ECM) colonization and disease severity of Japanese black pine (Pinus thunbergii Parl.) seedlings. We examined the effect of black locust on the distribution of ECM and pathogenic fungi in soil. DNA was extracted from soil at depths of 0-5 and 5-10 cm, collected from the border between a Japanese black pine- and a black locust-dominated forest, and the distribution of these fungi was investigated by denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis. The effect of soil nutrition and pH on fungal distribution was also examined. Tomentella sp. 1 and Tomentella sp. 2 were not detected from some subplots in the Japanese black pine-dominated forest. Ectomycorrhizas formed by Tomentella spp. were dominant in black locust-dominated subplots and very little in the Japanese black pine-dominated forest. Therefore, the distribution may be influenced by the distribution of inoculum potential, although we could not detect significant relationships between the distribution of Tomentella spp. on pine seedlings and in soils. The other ECM fungi were detected in soils in subplots where the ECM fungi was not detected on pine seedlings, and there was no significant correlation between the distribution of the ECM fungi on pine seedlings and in soils. Therefore, inoculum potential seemed to not always influence the ECM community on roots. The distribution of Lactarius quieticolor and Tomentella sp. 2 in soil at a depth of 0-5 cm positively correlated with soil phosphate (soil P) and that of Tomentella sp. 2 also positively correlated with soil nitrogen (soil N). These results suggest the possibility that the distribution of inoculum potential of the ECM fungi was affected by soil N and soil P. Although the mortality of the pine seedlings was higher in the black locust-dominated area than in the Japanese black pine-dominated area, a pathogenic fungus of pine seedlings, Cylindrocladium pacificum, was detected in soil at depths of 0-5 and 5-10 cm from both these areas. This indicates that the disease severity of pine seedlings in this study was influenced by environmental conditions rather than the distribution of inoculum potential.

A global map of suitability for coastal Vibrio cholerae under current and future climate conditions.

PubMed

Escobar, Luis E; Ryan, Sadie J; Stewart-Ibarra, Anna M; Finkelstein, Julia L; King, Christine A; Qiao, Huijie; Polhemus, Mark E

2015-09-01

Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in water and sediment from Zhoushan coastal area, China].

PubMed

Jiang, Min; Tuan, Le Huy; Mei, Wei-Ping; Ruan, Hui-Hui; Wu, Hao

2014-07-01

The spatial and temporal distribution of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) has been investigated in water and sediments of Zhoushan coastal area every two months in 2012. The concentrations of total PAHs ranged from 382.3 to 816.9 ng x L(-1), with the mean value of 552.5 ng x L(-1) in water; whereas it ranged from 1017.9 to 3047.1 ng x g(-1), with the mean value of 2 022.4 ng x g(-1) in sediment. Spatial distribution showed that Yangshan and Yanwoshan offshore area had the maximum and minimum of total PAHs contents in water, while the maximum and minimum occurred at Yangshan and Zhujiajian Nansha offshore area in sediment. Temporal distribution revealed that total PAHs contents in water reached the maximum and minimum values in October and June, however in sediments these values were found in August and June, respectively. The PAHs pollution was affected by oil emission, charcoal and coal combustion. Using the biological threshold and exceeded coefficient method to assess the ecological risk of PAHs in Zhoushan coastal area, the result showed that sigma PAHs had a lower probability of potential risk, while there was a higher probability of potential risk for acenaphthylene monomer, and there might be ecological risk for acenaphthene and fluorene. Distribution of PAHs between sediment and water showed that Zhoushan coastal sediment enriched a lot of PAHs, meanwhile the enrichment coefficient (K(d) value) of sediment in Daishan island was larger than that in Zhoushan main island.

Evaluating simplistic methods to understand current distributions and forecast distribution changes under climate change scenarios: An example with coypu (Myocastor coypus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Young, Nicholas E; Sheffels, Trevor R.; Carter, Jacoby; Systma, Mark D.; Talbert, Colin

2017-01-01

Invasive species provide a unique opportunity to evaluate factors controlling biogeographic distributions; we can consider introduction success as an experiment testing suitability of environmental conditions. Predicting potential distributions of spreading species is not easy, and forecasting potential distributions with changing climate is even more difficult. Using the globally invasive coypu (Myocastor coypus [Molina, 1782]), we evaluate and compare the utility of a simplistic ecophysiological based model and a correlative model to predict current and future distribution. The ecophysiological model was based on winter temperature relationships with nutria survival. We developed correlative statistical models using the Software for Assisted Habitat Modeling and biologically relevant climate data with a global extent. We applied the ecophysiological based model to several global circulation model (GCM) predictions for mid-century. We used global coypu introduction data to evaluate these models and to explore a hypothesized physiological limitation, finding general agreement with known coypu distribution locally and globally and support for an upper thermal tolerance threshold. Global circulation model based model results showed variability in coypu predicted distribution among GCMs, but had general agreement of increasing suitable area in the USA. Our methods highlighted the dynamic nature of the edges of the coypu distribution due to climate non-equilibrium, and uncertainty associated with forecasting future distributions. Areas deemed suitable habitat, especially those on the edge of the current known range, could be used for early detection of the spread of coypu populations for management purposes. Combining approaches can be beneficial to predicting potential distributions of invasive species now and in the future and in exploring hypotheses of factors controlling distributions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Long, Philip E.; Wurstner, Signe K.; Sullivan, E. C.

Ice coverage of the Arctic Ocean is predicted to become thinner and to cover less area with time. The combination of more ice-free waters for exploration and navigation, along with increasing demand for hydrocarbons and improvements in technologies for the discovery and exploitation of new hydrocarbon resources have focused attention on the hydrocarbon potential of the Arctic Basin and its margins. The purpose of this document is to 1) summarize results of a review of published hydrocarbon resources in the Arctic, including both conventional oil and gas and methane hydrates and 2) develop a set of digital maps of themore » hydrocarbon potential of the Arctic Ocean. These maps can be combined with predictions of ice-free areas to enable estimates of the likely regions and sequence of hydrocarbon production development in the Arctic. In this report, conventional oil and gas resources are explicitly linked with potential gas hydrate resources. This has not been attempted previously and is particularly powerful as the likelihood of gas production from marine gas hydrates increases. Available or planned infrastructure, such as pipelines, combined with the geospatial distribution of hydrocarbons is a very strong determinant of the temporal-spatial development of Arctic hydrocarbon resources. Significant unknowns decrease the certainty of predictions for development of hydrocarbon resources. These include: 1) Areas in the Russian Arctic that are poorly mapped, 2) Disputed ownership: primarily the Lomonosov Ridge, 3) Lack of detailed information on gas hydrate distribution, and 4) Technical risk associated with the ability to extract methane gas from gas hydrates. Logistics may control areas of exploration more than hydrocarbon potential. Accessibility, established ownership, and leasing of exploration blocks may trump quality of source rock, reservoir, and size of target. With this in mind, the main areas that are likely to be explored first are the Bering Strait and Chukchi Sea, in spite of the fact that these areas do not have highest potential for future hydrocarbon reserves. Opportunities for improving the mapping and assessment of Arctic hydrocarbon resources include: 1) Refining hydrocarbon potential on a basin-by-basin basis, 2) Developing more realistic and detailed distribution of gas hydrate, and 3) Assessing the likely future scenarios for development of infrastructure and their interaction with hydrocarbon potential. It would also be useful to develop a more sophisticated approach to merging conventional and gas hydrate resource potential that considers the technical uncertainty associated with exploitation of gas hydrate resources. Taken together, additional work in these areas could significantly improve our understanding of the exploitation of Arctic hydrocarbons as ice-free areas increase in the future.« less

Increase in quantity and quality of suitable areas for invasive species as climate changes.

PubMed

Bertelsmeier, Cleo; Luque, Gloria M; Courchamp, Franck

2013-12-01

As climatically suitable range projections become increasingly used to assess distributions of species, we recommend systematic assessments of the quality of habitat in addition to the classical binary classification of habitat. We devised a method to assess occurrence probability, captured by a climatic suitability index, through which we could determine variations in the quality of potential habitat. This relative risk assessment circumvents the use of an arbitrary suitability threshold. We illustrated our method with 2 case studies on invasive ant species. We estimated invasion potential of the destroyer ant (Monomorium destructor) and the European fire ant (Myrmica rubra) on a global scale currently and by 2080 with climate change. We found that 21.1% of the world's landmass currently has a suitable climate for the destroyer ant and 16% has a suitable climate for European fire ant. Our climatic suitability index showed that both ant species would benefit from climate change, but in different ways. The size of the potential distribution increased by 35.8% for the destroyer ant. Meanwhile, the total area of potential distribution remained the same for the European fire ant (>0.05%), but the level of climatic suitability within this range increased greatly and led to an improvement in habitat quality (i.e., of invasive species' establishment likelihood). Either through quantity or quality of suitable areas, both invasive ant species are likely to increase the extent of their invasion in the future, following global climate change. Our results show that species may increase their range if either more areas become suitable or if the available areas present improved suitability. Studies in which an arbitrary suitability threshold was used may overlook changes in area quality within climatically suitable areas and as a result reach incorrect predictions. Incremento de la Cantidad y Calidad de Áreas Idóneas para Especies Invasoras a Medida que Cambia el Clima. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Maximizing species conservation in continental Ecuador: a case of systematic conservation planning for biodiverse regions

PubMed Central

Lessmann, Janeth; Muñoz, Jesús; Bonaccorso, Elisa

2014-01-01

Ecuador has the largest number of species by area worldwide, but also a low representation of species within its protected areas. Here, we applied systematic conservation planning to identify potential areas for conservation in continental Ecuador, with the aim of increasing the representation of terrestrial species diversity in the protected area network. We selected 809 terrestrial species (amphibians, birds, mammals, and plants), for which distributions were estimated via species distribution models (SDMs), using Maxent. For each species we established conservation goals based on conservation priorities, and estimated new potential protected areas using Marxan conservation planning software. For each selected area, we determined their conservation priority and feasibility of establishment, two important aspects in the decision-making processes. We found that according to our conservation goals, the current protected area network contains large conservation gaps. Potential areas for conservation almost double the surface area of currently protected areas. Most of the newly proposed areas are located in the Coast, a region with large conservation gaps and irreversible changes in land use. The most feasible areas for conservation were found in the Amazon and Andes regions, which encompass more undisturbed habitats, and already harbor most of the current reserves. Our study allows defining a viable strategy for preserving Ecuador's biodiversity, by combining SDMs, GIS-based decision-support software, and priority and feasibility assessments of the selected areas. This approach is useful for complementing protected area networks in countries with great biodiversity, insufficient biological information, and limited resources for conservation. PMID:25360277

Hazardous air pollutants in industrial area of Mumbai - India.

PubMed

Srivastava, Anjali; Som, Dipanjali

2007-09-01

Hazardous Air Pollutants (HAPs) have a potential to be distributed into different component of environment with varying persistence. In the current study fourteen HAPs have been quantified in the air using TO-17 method in an industrial area of Mumbai. The distribution of these HAPs in different environmental compartments have been calculated using multi media mass balance model, TaPL3, along with long range transport potential and persistence. Results show that most of the target compounds partition mostly in air. Phenol and trifluralin, partition predominantly into soil while ethyl benzene and xylene partition predominantly into vegetation compartment. Naphthalene has the highest persistence followed by ethyl benzene, xylene and 1,1,1 trihloro ethane. Long range transport potential is maximum for 1,1,1 trichloroethane. Assessment of human health risk in terms of non-carcinogenic hazard and carcinogenic risk due to exposure to HAPs. have been estimated for industrial workers and residents in the study area considering all possible exposure routes using the output from TaPL3 model. The overall carcinogenic risk for residents and workers are estimated as high as unity along with very high hazard potential.

Radon soil gas measurements in a geological versatile region as basis to improve the prediction of areas with a high radon potential.

PubMed

Kabrt, Franz; Seidel, Claudia; Baumgartner, Andreas; Friedmann, Harry; Rechberger, Fabian; Schuff, Michael; Maringer, Franz Josef

2014-07-01

With the aim to predict the radon potential by geological data, radon soil gas measurements were made in a selected region in Styria, Austria. This region is characterised by mean indoor radon potentials of 130-280 Bq m(-3) and a high geological diversity. The distribution of the individual measuring sites was selected on the basis of geological aspects and the distribution of area settlements. In this work, the radon soil gas activity concentration and the soil permeability were measured at 100 sites, each with three single measurements. Furthermore, the local dose rate was determined and soil samples were taken at each site to determine the activity concentration of natural radionuclides. During two investigation periods, long-term soil gas radon measurements were made to study the time dependency of the radon activity concentration. All the results will be compared and investigated for correlation among each other to improve the prediction of areas with high radon potential. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Integrating Paleodistribution Models and Phylogeography in the Grass-Cutting Ant Acromyrmex striatus (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) in Southern Lowlands of South America

PubMed Central

Cristiano, Maykon Passos; Clemes Cardoso, Danon; Fernandes-Salomão, Tânia Maria; Heinze, Jürgen

2016-01-01

Past climate changes often have influenced the present distribution and intraspecific genetic diversity of organisms. The objective of this study was to investigate the phylogeography and historical demography of populations of Acromyrmex striatus (Roger, 1863), a leaf-cutting ant species restricted to the open plains of South America. Additionally, we modeled the distribution of this species to predict its contemporary and historic habitat. From the partial sequences of the mitochondrial gene cytochrome oxidase I of 128 A. striatus workers from 38 locations we estimated genetic diversity and inferred historical demography, divergence time, and population structure. The potential distribution areas of A. striatus for current and quaternary weather conditions were modeled using the maximum entropy algorithm. We identified a total of 58 haplotypes, divided into five main haplogroups. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) revealed that the largest proportion of genetic variation is found among the groups of populations. Paleodistribution models suggest that the potential habitat of A. striatus may have decreased during the Last Interglacial Period (LIG) and expanded during the Last Maximum Glacial (LGM). Overall, the past potential distribution recovered by the model comprises the current potential distribution of the species. The general structuring pattern observed was consistent with isolation by distance, suggesting a balance between gene flow and drift. Analysis of historical demography showed that populations of A. striatus had remained constant throughout its evolutionary history. Although fluctuations in the area of their potential historic habitat occurred during quaternary climate changes, populations of A. striatus are strongly structured geographically. However, explicit barriers to gene flow have not been identified. These findings closely match those in Mycetophylax simplex, another ant species that in some areas occurs in sympatry with A. striatus. Ecophysiological traits of this species and isolation by distance may together have shaped the phylogeographic pattern. PMID:26734939

Delineating generalized species boundaries from species distribution data and a species distribution model

Treesearch

Matthew P. Peters; Stephen N. Matthews; Louis R. Iverson; Anantha M. Prasad

2013-01-01

Species distribution models (SDM) are commonly used to provide information about species ranges or extents, and often are intended to represent the entire area of potential occupancy or suitable habitat in which individuals occur. While SDMs can provide results over various geographic extents, they normally operate within a grid and cannot delimit distinct, smooth...

Predicting potential distribution of poorly known species with small database: the case of four-horned antelope Tetracerus quadricornis on the Indian subcontinent.

PubMed

Pokharel, Krishna Prasad; Ludwig, Tobias; Storch, Ilse

2016-04-01

Information gaps on the distribution of data deficient and rare species such as four-horned antelope (FHA) in Nepal may impair their conservation. We aimed to empirically predict the distribution of FHA in Nepal with the help of data from the Indian subcontinent. Additionally, we wanted to identify core areas and gaps within the reported range limits and to assess the degree of isolation of known Nepalese populations from the main distribution areas in India. The tropical part of the Indian subcontinent (65°-90° eastern longitude, 5°-30° northern latitude), that is, the areas south of the Himalayan Mountains. Using MaxEnt and accounting for sampling bias, we developed predictive distribution models from environmental and topographical variables, and known presence locations of the study species in India and Nepal. We address and discuss the use of target group vs. random background. The prediction map reveals a disjunct distribution of FHA with core areas in the tropical parts of central to southern-western India. At the scale of the Indian subcontinent, suitable FHA habitat area in Nepal was small. The Indo-Gangetic Plain isolates Nepalese from the Indian FHA populations, but the distribution area extends further south than proposed by the current IUCN map. A low to intermediate temperature seasonality as well as low precipitation during the dry and warm season contributed most to the prediction of FHA distribution. The predicted distribution maps confirm other FHA range maps but also indicate that suitable areas exist south of the known range. Results further highlight that small populations in the Nepalese Terai Arc are isolated from the Indian core distribution and therefore might be under high extinction risk.

Climate-driven geographic distribution of the desert locust during recession periods: Subspecies' niche differentiation and relative risks under scenarios of climate change.

PubMed

Meynard, Christine N; Gay, Pierre-Emmanuel; Lecoq, Michel; Foucart, Antoine; Piou, Cyril; Chapuis, Marie-Pierre

2017-11-01

The desert locust is an agricultural pest that is able to switch from a harmless solitarious stage, during recession periods, to swarms of gregarious individuals that disperse long distances and affect areas from western Africa to India during outbreak periods. Large outbreaks have been recorded through centuries, and the Food and Agriculture Organization keeps a long-term, large-scale monitoring survey database in the area. However, there is also a much less known subspecies that occupies a limited area in Southern Africa. We used large-scale climatic and occurrence data of the solitarious phase of each subspecies during recession periods to understand whether both subspecies climatic niches differ from each other, what is the current potential geographical distribution of each subspecies, and how climate change is likely to shift their potential distribution with respect to current conditions. We evaluated whether subspecies are significantly specialized along available climate gradients by using null models of background climatic differences within and between southern and northern ranges and applying niche similarity and niche equivalency tests. The results point to climatic niche conservatism between the two clades. We complemented this analysis with species distribution modeling to characterize current solitarious distributions and forecast potential recession range shifts under two extreme climate change scenarios at the 2050 and 2090 time horizon. Projections suggest that, at a global scale, the northern clade could contract its solitarious recession range, while the southern clade is likely to expand its recession range. However, local expansions were also predicted in the northern clade, in particular in southern and northern margins of the current geographical distribution. In conclusion, monitoring and management practices should remain in place in northern Africa, while in Southern Africa the potential for the subspecies to pose a threat in the future should be investigated more closely. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Impact of Climate Change on Potential Distribution of Chinese Caterpillar Fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya

PubMed Central

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S.

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11–4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species. PMID:25180515

Impact of climate change on potential distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus (Ophiocordyceps sinensis) in Nepal Himalaya.

PubMed

Shrestha, Uttam Babu; Bawa, Kamaljit S

2014-01-01

Climate change has already impacted ecosystems and species and substantial impacts of climate change in the future are expected. Species distribution modeling is widely used to map the current potential distribution of species as well as to model the impact of future climate change on distribution of species. Mapping current distribution is useful for conservation planning and understanding the change in distribution impacted by climate change is important for mitigation of future biodiversity losses. However, the current distribution of Chinese caterpillar fungus, a flagship species of the Himalaya with very high economic value, is unknown. Nor do we know the potential changes in suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus caused by future climate change. We used MaxEnt modeling to predict current distribution and changes in the future distributions of Chinese caterpillar fungus in three future climate change trajectories based on representative concentration pathways (RCPs: RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 6.0) in three different time periods (2030, 2050, and 2070) using species occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, and altitude. About 6.02% (8,989 km2) area of the Nepal Himalaya is suitable for Chinese caterpillar fungus habitat. Our model showed that across all future climate change trajectories over three different time periods, the area of predicted suitable habitat of Chinese caterpillar fungus would expand, with 0.11-4.87% expansion over current suitable habitat. Depending upon the representative concentration pathways, we observed both increase and decrease in average elevation of the suitable habitat range of the species.

A method for evaluating photovoltaic potential in China based on GIS platform

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L. Z.; Tan, H. W.; Ji, L.; Wang, D.

2017-11-01

Solar photovoltaic systems are commonly utilized in China. However, the associated research is still lack of its resource potential analysis in all regions in China. Based on the existed data about solar radiation and system conversion efficiency data, a new method for distributed photovoltaic potential assessment has been presented. The experiment of three kinds of solar photovoltaic system has been set up for the purpose of analyzing the relationship between conversion efficiency and environmental parameters. This paper fits the relationship between conversion efficiency and solar radiation intensity. This method takes into account the amount of solar radiation that is effectively generated and drives away the weak values. With the spatial analysis function of geographic information system (GIS) platform, frequency distribution of solar radiation intensity and PV potential in China can be derived. Furthermore, analytical results show that monocrystalline-silicon PV generation in the north-western and northern areas have reached a level of more than 200 kWh/(m2.a), making those areas be suitable for the development of PV system. However, the potential for southwest areas reaches a level of only 130 kWh/(m2.a). This paper can provide the baseline reference for solar energy development planning.

Combined Use of Systematic Conservation Planning, Species Distribution Modelling, and Connectivity Analysis Reveals Severe Conservation Gaps in a Megadiverse Country (Peru)

PubMed Central

Fajardo, Javier; Lessmann, Janeth; Bonaccorso, Elisa; Devenish, Christian; Muñoz, Jesús

2014-01-01

Conservation planning is crucial for megadiverse countries where biodiversity is coupled with incomplete reserve systems and limited resources to invest in conservation. Using Peru as an example of a megadiverse country, we asked whether the national system of protected areas satisfies biodiversity conservation needs. Further, to complement the existing reserve system, we identified and prioritized potential conservation areas using a combination of species distribution modeling, conservation planning and connectivity analysis. Based on a set of 2,869 species, including mammals, birds, amphibians, reptiles, butterflies, and plants, we used species distribution models to represent species' geographic ranges to reduce the effect of biased sampling and partial knowledge about species' distributions. A site-selection algorithm then searched for efficient and complementary proposals, based on the above distributions, for a more representative system of protection. Finally, we incorporated connectivity among areas in an innovative post-hoc analysis to prioritize those areas maximizing connectivity within the system. Our results highlight severe conservation gaps in the Coastal and Andean regions, and we propose several areas, which are not currently covered by the existing network of protected areas. Our approach helps to find areas that contribute to creating a more representative, connected and efficient network. PMID:25479411

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Kominami, Yuji; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Ohashi, Haruka; Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Takeuchi, Wataru; Matsui, Tetsuya

2017-01-01

Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD. PMID:28797067

Potential distribution of pine wilt disease under future climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Hirata, Akiko; Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakao, Katsuhiro; Kominami, Yuji; Tanaka, Nobuyuki; Ohashi, Haruka; Takano, Kohei Takenaka; Takeuchi, Wataru; Matsui, Tetsuya

2017-01-01

Pine wilt disease (PWD) constitutes a serious threat to pine forests. Since development depends on temperature and drought, there is a concern that future climate change could lead to the spread of PWD infections. We evaluated the risk of PWD in 21 susceptible Pinus species on a global scale. The MB index, which represents the sum of the difference between the mean monthly temperature and 15 when the mean monthly temperatures exceeds 15°C, was used to determine current and future regions vulnerable to PWD (MB ≥ 22). For future climate conditions, we compared the difference in PWD risks among four different representative concentration pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) and two time periods (2050s and 2070s). We also evaluated the impact of climate change on habitat suitability for each Pinus species using species distribution models. The findings were then integrated and the potential risk of PWD spread under climate change was discussed. Within the natural Pinus distribution area, southern parts of North America, Europe, and Asia were categorized as vulnerable regions (MB ≥ 22; 16% of the total Pinus distribution area). Representative provinces in which PWD has been reported at least once overlapped with the vulnerable regions. All RCP scenarios showed expansion of vulnerable regions in northern parts of Europe, Asia, and North America under future climate conditions. By the 2070s, under RCP 8.5, an estimated increase in the area of vulnerable regions to approximately 50% of the total Pinus distribution area was revealed. In addition, the habitat conditions of a large portion of the Pinus distribution areas in Europe and Asia were deemed unsuitable by the 2070s under RCP 8.5. Approximately 40% of these regions overlapped with regions deemed vulnerable to PWD, suggesting that Pinus forests in these areas are at risk of serious damage due to habitat shifts and spread of PWD.

Potential distribution of the invasive freshwater dinoflagellate Ceratium furcoides (Levander) Langhans (Dinophyta) in South America.

PubMed

Meichtry de Zaburlín, Norma; Vogler, Roberto E; Molina, María J; Llano, Víctor M

2016-04-01

Dinoflagellates of the genus Ceratium are predominantly found in marine environments, with a few species in inland waters. Over the last decades, the freshwater species Ceratium hirundinella and Ceratium furcoides have colonized and invaded several South American basins. The purpose of this study was to create a distribution model for the invasive dinoflagellate C. furcoides in South America in order to further investigate the basins at potential risk, as well as the environmental conditions that influence its expansion. This species is known to develop blooms due to its mobility, resistance to sedimentation, and optimized use of resources. Although nontoxic, blooms of the species cause many problems to both the natural ecosystems and water users. Potential distribution was predicted by using a maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt). Model was run with 101 occurrences obtained from the scientific literature, and climatic, hydrological and topographic variables. The developed model had a very good performance for the study area. The most susceptible areas identified were mainly concentrated in the basins between southeastern Brazil and northeastern Argentina. Besides already affected regions, new potentially suitable areas were identified in temperate regions of South America. The information generated here will be useful for authorities responsible for water and watershed management to monitor the spread of this species and address problems related to its establishment in new environments. © 2015 Phycological Society of America.

Inter-annual variability of North Sea plaice spawning habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loots, C.; Vaz, S.; Koubbi, P.; Planque, B.; Coppin, F.; Verin, Y.

2010-11-01

Potential spawning habitat is defined as the area where environmental conditions are suitable for spawning to occur. Spawning adult data from the first quarter (January-March) of the International Bottom Trawl Survey have been used to study the inter-annual variability of the potential spawning habitat of North Sea plaice from 1980 to 2007. Generalised additive models (GAM) were used to create a model that related five environmental variables (depth, bottom temperature and salinity, seabed stress and sediment type) to presence-absence and abundance of spawning adults. Then, the habitat model was applied each year from 1970 to 2007 to predict inter-annual variability of the potential spawning habitat. Predicted responses obtained by GAM for each year were mapped using kriging. A hierarchical classification associated with a correspondence analysis was performed to cluster spawning suitable areas and to determine how they evolved across years. The potential spawning habitat was consistent with historical spawning ground locations described in the literature from eggs surveys. It was also found that the potential spawning habitat varied across years. Suitable areas were located in the southern part of the North Sea and along the eastern coast of England and Scotland in the eighties; they expanded further north from the nineties. Annual survey distributions did not show such northward expansion and remained located in the southern North Sea. This suggests that this species' actual spatial distribution remains stable against changing environmental conditions, and that the potential spawning habitat is not fully occupied. Changes in environmental conditions appear to remain within plaice environmental ranges, meaning that other factors may control the spatial distribution of plaice spawning habitat.

Distributed watershed modeling of design storms to identify nonpoint source loading areas

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Endreny, T.A.; Wood, E.F.

1999-03-01

Watershed areas that generate nonpoint source (NPS) polluted runoff need to be identified prior to the design of basin-wide water quality projects. Current watershed-scale NPS models lack a variable source area (VSA) hydrology routine, and are therefore unable to identify spatially dynamic runoff zones. The TOPLATS model used a watertable-driven VSA hydrology routine to identify runoff zones in a 17.5 km{sup 2} agricultural watershed in central Oklahoma. Runoff areas were identified in a static modeling framework as a function of prestorm watertable depth and also in a dynamic modeling framework by simulating basin response to 2, 10, and 25 yrmore » return period 6 h design storms. Variable source area expansion occurred throughout the duration of each 6 h storm and total runoff area increased with design storm intensity. Basin-average runoff rates of 1 mm h{sup {minus}1} provided little insight into runoff extremes while the spatially distributed analysis identified saturation excess zones with runoff rates equaling effective precipitation. The intersection of agricultural landcover areas with these saturation excess runoff zones targeted the priority potential NPS runoff zones that should be validated with field visits. These intersected areas, labeled as potential NPS runoff zones, were mapped within the watershed to demonstrate spatial analysis options available in TOPLATS for managing complex distributions of watershed runoff. TOPLATS concepts in spatial saturation excess runoff modelling should be incorporated into NPS management models.« less

DISPAQ: Distributed Profitable-Area Query from Big Taxi Trip Data.

PubMed

Putri, Fadhilah Kurnia; Song, Giltae; Kwon, Joonho; Rao, Praveen

2017-09-25

One of the crucial problems for taxi drivers is to efficiently locate passengers in order to increase profits. The rapid advancement and ubiquitous penetration of Internet of Things (IoT) technology into transportation industries enables us to provide taxi drivers with locations that have more potential passengers (more profitable areas) by analyzing and querying taxi trip data. In this paper, we propose a query processing system, called Distributed Profitable-Area Query ( DISPAQ ) which efficiently identifies profitable areas by exploiting the Apache Software Foundation's Spark framework and a MongoDB database. DISPAQ first maintains a profitable-area query index (PQ-index) by extracting area summaries and route summaries from raw taxi trip data. It then identifies candidate profitable areas by searching the PQ-index during query processing. Then, it exploits a Z-Skyline algorithm, which is an extension of skyline processing with a Z-order space filling curve, to quickly refine the candidate profitable areas. To improve the performance of distributed query processing, we also propose local Z-Skyline optimization, which reduces the number of dominant tests by distributing killer profitable areas to each cluster node. Through extensive evaluation with real datasets, we demonstrate that our DISPAQ system provides a scalable and efficient solution for processing profitable-area queries from huge amounts of big taxi trip data.

DISPAQ: Distributed Profitable-Area Query from Big Taxi Trip Data †

PubMed Central

Putri, Fadhilah Kurnia; Song, Giltae; Rao, Praveen

2017-01-01

One of the crucial problems for taxi drivers is to efficiently locate passengers in order to increase profits. The rapid advancement and ubiquitous penetration of Internet of Things (IoT) technology into transportation industries enables us to provide taxi drivers with locations that have more potential passengers (more profitable areas) by analyzing and querying taxi trip data. In this paper, we propose a query processing system, called Distributed Profitable-Area Query (DISPAQ) which efficiently identifies profitable areas by exploiting the Apache Software Foundation’s Spark framework and a MongoDB database. DISPAQ first maintains a profitable-area query index (PQ-index) by extracting area summaries and route summaries from raw taxi trip data. It then identifies candidate profitable areas by searching the PQ-index during query processing. Then, it exploits a Z-Skyline algorithm, which is an extension of skyline processing with a Z-order space filling curve, to quickly refine the candidate profitable areas. To improve the performance of distributed query processing, we also propose local Z-Skyline optimization, which reduces the number of dominant tests by distributing killer profitable areas to each cluster node. Through extensive evaluation with real datasets, we demonstrate that our DISPAQ system provides a scalable and efficient solution for processing profitable-area queries from huge amounts of big taxi trip data. PMID:28946679

Potential for downward leakage to the Floridan Aquifer, Green Swamp area, central Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grubb, H.F.

1977-01-01

A qualitative evaluation of the potential for downward leakage from the surficial sand aquifer to the underlying Floridan aquifer was made for the Green Swamp area (about 870 sq mi) in central Florida. Downward leakage, or recharge, is limited under natural conditions owing to the nearness to land surface of the potentiometric surface of both the sand aquifer and the underlying Floridan aquifer. Continuous cores of the unconsolidated section were obtained at 74 sites in the study area and were evaluated for downward leakage potential based on grain-size distribution. Sand percentage was estimated for each interval or bed from microscopic examination of the core samples. The four maps prepared from this data show sand thickness, clay thickness, relative vertical hydraulic conductivity of the confining beds and the relative potential for downward leakage. About 20 percent (178 sq mi) of the area classified has a relatively good potential for downward leakage; almost 50 percent of the area has a relatively poor potential. (Woodard-USGS)

Predicting the Global Potential Distribution of Four Endangered Panax Species in Middle-and Low-Latitude Regions of China by the Geographic Information System for Global Medicinal Plants (GMPGIS).

PubMed

Du, Zhixia; Wu, Jie; Meng, Xiangxiao; Li, Jinhua; Huang, Linfang

2017-09-28

Global biodiversity is strongly influenced by the decrease in endangered biological species. Predicting the distribution of endangered medicinal plants is necessary for resource conservation. A spatial distribution model-geographic information system for global medicinal plants (GMPGIS)-is used to predict the global potential suitable distribution of four endangered Panax species, including Panax japonicas (T. Nees) C. A. Meyer and Panax japonicas var. major (Burkill) C. Y. Wu & K. M. Feng distributed in low- and middle-latitude, Panax zingiberensis C. Y. Wu & K. M. Feng and Panax stipuleanatus C. T. Tsai & K. M. Feng in low-latitude regions of China based on seven bioclimatic variables and 600 occurrence points. Results indicate that areas of P. japonicus and P. japonicus var. major are 266.29 × 10⁵ and 77.5 × 10⁵ km², respectively, which are mainly distributed in China and America. By contrast, the areas of P. zingiberensis and P. stipuleanatus are 5.09 × 10⁵ and 2.05 × 10⁵ km², respectively, which are mainly distributed in Brazil and China. P. japonicus has the widest distribution among the four species. The data also indicate that the mean temperature of coldest quarter is the most critical factor. This scientific prediction can be used as reference for resource conservation of endangered plants and as a guide to search for endangered species in previously unknown areas.

Near term climate projections for invasive species distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, C.S.; Stohlgren, T.J.

2009-01-01

Climate change and invasive species pose important conservation issues separately, and should be examined together. We used existing long term climate datasets for the US to project potential climate change into the future at a finer spatial and temporal resolution than the climate change scenarios generally available. These fine scale projections, along with new species distribution modeling techniques to forecast the potential extent of invasive species, can provide useful information to aide conservation and invasive species management efforts. We created habitat suitability maps for Pueraria montana (kudzu) under current climatic conditions and potential average conditions up to 30 years in the future. We examined how the potential distribution of this species will be affected by changing climate, and the management implications associated with these changes. Our models indicated that P. montana may increase its distribution particularly in the Northeast with climate change and may decrease in other areas. ?? 2008 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Re-Shuffling of Species with Climate Disruption: A No-Analog Future for California Birds?

PubMed Central

Stralberg, Diana; Jongsomjit, Dennis; Howell, Christine A.; Snyder, Mark A.; Alexander, John D.; Wiens, John A.; Root, Terry L.

2009-01-01

By facilitating independent shifts in species' distributions, climate disruption may result in the rapid development of novel species assemblages that challenge the capacity of species to co-exist and adapt. We used a multivariate approach borrowed from paleoecology to quantify the potential change in California terrestrial breeding bird communities based on current and future species-distribution models for 60 focal species. Projections of future no-analog communities based on two climate models and two species-distribution-model algorithms indicate that by 2070 over half of California could be occupied by novel assemblages of bird species, implying the potential for dramatic community reshuffling and altered patterns of species interactions. The expected percentage of no-analog bird communities was dependent on the community scale examined, but consistent geographic patterns indicated several locations that are particularly likely to host novel bird communities in the future. These no-analog areas did not always coincide with areas of greatest projected species turnover. Efforts to conserve and manage biodiversity could be substantially improved by considering not just future changes in the distribution of individual species, but including the potential for unprecedented changes in community composition and unanticipated consequences of novel species assemblages. PMID:19724641

Areas of potential suitability and survival of Dendroctonus valens in China under extreme climate warming scenario.

PubMed

He, S Y; Ge, X Z; Wang, T; Wen, J B; Zong, S X

2015-08-01

The areas in China with climates suitable for the potential distribution of the pest species red turpentine beetle (RTB) Dendroctonus valens LeConte (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were predicted by CLIMEX based on historical climate data and future climate data with warming estimated. The model used a historical climate data set (1971-2000) and a simulated climate data set (2010-2039) provided by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change (TYN SC 2.0). Based on the historical climate data, a wide area was available in China with a suitable climate for the beetle in which every province might contain suitable habitats for this pest, particularly all of the southern provinces. The northern limit of the distribution of the beetle was predicted to reach Yakeshi and Elunchun in Inner Mongolia, and the western boundary would reach to Keerkezi in Xinjiang Province. Based on a global-warming scenario, the area with a potential climate suited to RTB in the next 30 years (2010-2039) may extend further to the northeast. The northern limit of the distribution could reach most parts of south Heilongjiang Province, whereas the western limit would remain unchanged. Combined with the tendency for RTB to spread, the variation in suitable habitats within the scenario of extreme climate warming and the multiple geographical elements of China led us to assume that, within the next 30 years, RTB would spread towards the northeast, northwest, and central regions of China and could be a potentially serious problem for the forests of China.

Hierarchical species distribution models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.

2016-01-01

Determining the distribution pattern of a species is important to increase scientific knowledge, inform management decisions, and conserve biodiversity. To infer spatial and temporal patterns, species distribution models have been developed for use with many sampling designs and types of data. Recently, it has been shown that count, presence-absence, and presence-only data can be conceptualized as arising from a point process distribution. Therefore, it is important to understand properties of the point process distribution. We examine how the hierarchical species distribution modeling framework has been used to incorporate a wide array of regression and theory-based components while accounting for the data collection process and making use of auxiliary information. The hierarchical modeling framework allows us to demonstrate how several commonly used species distribution models can be derived from the point process distribution, highlight areas of potential overlap between different models, and suggest areas where further research is needed.

Little pigeons can carry great messages: potential distribution and ecology of Uranotaenia (Pseudoficalbia) unguiculata Edwards, 1913 (Diptera: Culicidae), a lesser-known mosquito species from the Western Palaearctic.

PubMed

Filatov, Serhii

2017-10-10

Uranotaenia unguiculata is a Palaearctic mosquito species with poorly known distribution and ecology. This study is aimed at filling the gap in our understanding of the species potential distribution and its environmental requirements through a species distribution modelling (SDM) exercise. Furthermore, aspects of the mosquito ecology that may be relevant to the epidemiology of certain zoonotic vector-borne diseases in Europe are discussed. A maximum entropy (Maxent) modelling approach has been applied to predict the potential distribution of Ur. unguiculata in the Western Palaearctic. Along with the high accuracy and predictive power, the model reflects well the known species distribution and predicts as highly suitable some areas where the occurrence of the species is hitherto unknown. To our knowledge, the potential distribution of a mosquito species from the genus Uranotaenia is modelled for the first time. Provided that Ur. unguiculata is a widely-distributed species, and some pathogens of zoonotic concern have been detected in this mosquito on several occasions, the question regarding its host associations and possible epidemiological role warrants further investigation.

Geographic Distribution and Ecology of Potential Malaria Vectors in the Republic of Korea

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-05-01

species . Figure 4 shows a minimal spanning tree of the non- metric multidimensional scaling analysis of the means of the Þrst 15 principal components...to develop ecological niche models (ENMs) of the potential geographic distribution for eight anopheline species known to occur there. The areas...predicted suitable for the Hyrcanus Group species were the most extensive for Anopheles sinensis Wiedemann, An. kleini Rueda, An. belenrae Rueda, and An

Why inputs matter: Selection of climatic variables for species distribution modelling in the Himalayan region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bobrowski, Maria; Schickhoff, Udo

2017-04-01

Betula utilis is a major constituent of alpine treeline ecotones in the western and central Himalayan region. The objective of this study is to provide first time analysis of the potential distribution of Betula utilis in the subalpine and alpine belts of the Himalayan region using species distribution modelling. Using Generalized Linear Models (GLM) we aim at examining climatic factors controlling the species distribution under current climate conditions. Furthermore we evaluate the prediction ability of climate data derived from different statistical methods. GLMs were created using least correlated bioclimatic variables derived from two different climate models: 1) interpolated climate data (i.e. Worldclim, Hijmans et al., 2005) and 2) quasi-mechanistical statistical downscaling (i.e. Chelsa; Karger et al., 2016). Model accuracy was evaluated by the ability to predict the potential species distribution range. We found that models based on variables of Chelsa climate data had higher predictive power, whereas models using Worldclim climate data consistently overpredicted the potential suitable habitat for Betula utilis. Although climatic variables of Worldclim are widely used in modelling species distribution, our results suggest to treat them with caution when remote regions like the Himalayan mountains are in focus. Unmindful usage of climatic variables for species distribution models potentially cause misleading projections and may lead to wrong implications and recommendations for nature conservation. References: Hijmans, R.J., Cameron, S.E., Parra, J.L., Jones, P.G. & Jarvis, A. (2005) Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 25, 1965-1978. Karger, D.N., Conrad, O., Böhner, J., Kawohl, T., Kreft, H., Soria-Auza, R.W., Zimmermann, N., Linder, H.P. & Kessler, M. (2016) Climatologies at high resolution for the earth land surface areas. arXiv:1607.00217 [physics].

[Potential distribution of jaguar, Panthera onca (Carnivora: Felidae) in Guerrero, Mexico: persistence of areas for its conservation].

PubMed

Cuervo-Robayo, Angela P; Monroy-Vilchis, Octavio

2012-09-01

Studies about the permanence of natural protected areas are important, because they contribute to the promotion of the conservation target and to optimize economical and human resources of specific areas. Although there are no natural protected areas in Guerrero, it has suitable habitat for the jaguar, a common species used for planning and management of conservation areas. Since, there is actual evidence that environmental and anthropogenic variables may modify vertebrate species distribution with time, in this study we predicted the potential distribution of Panthera onca using MaxEnt for this Southeastern region. In addition, we made a projection considering the effect of a moderate climate change scenario, to evaluate the stability of the conservation area for a period of 24 years. Furthermore, we applied three threat scenarios for the actual prediction to define conservation priorities areas. In our results, we have found that 18 361Km2 (29%) of this state has a permanent suitable habitat for jaguar conservation in the Sierra Madre del Sur and Pacific coast, with a possible loss of 2 000km2 in 24 years. This habitat is characterized by a 56% of temperate forest (mainly conifers and hardwoods 34%), and 35% of tropical deciduous forest. With the projections, the Southeastern region resulted with the higher anthropogenic impacts, while at the same time, an area of 7 900km2 in the Central-Western state was determined as a priority for conservation. To assure jaguar conservation, we propose the inclusion of this new conservation area, which is located in the Sierra Madre del Sur, with which we may potentially preserve other 250 species of threatened vertebrates. This way, the suggested habitat conservation may represent a local effort in Guerrero and will strengthen the biological corridor network for P. onca protection in Latin America.

MODELING THE POTENTIAL SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF BEEF CATTLE GRAZING USING A GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEM

EPA Science Inventory

Data regarding grazing utilization in the western United States are typically compiled within administrative boundaries(e.g. allotment,pasture). For large areas, an assumption of uniform distribution is seldom valid. Previous studies show that vegetation type, degree of slope, an...

Mapping lacustrine syn-rift reservoir distribution using spectral attributes: A case study of the Pematang Brownshale Central Sumatra Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haris, A.; Yustiawan, R.; Riyanto, A.; Ramadian, R.

2017-07-01

Pematang Brownshale is the lake sediment, which is proven as the main source rock in Malacca Strait Area. So far Brownshale is only considered as source rock, but the well data show intercalated sand layers encountered within the Pematang Brownshale, where several downhole tests proved this series as a potential hydrocarbon reservoir. Pematang formation is a syn-rift sequent deposited in Malacca Strait following the opening of central Sumatra basin during a late cretaceous to early Oligocene, which is proven as potential source rock and reservoir. The aim of the study is to identify the distribution of sandstone reservoir in Pematang Brownshale using spectral attributes. These works were carried out by integrating log data analysis and frequency maps extracted from spectral attributes Continuous Wavelet Transform (CWT). All these data are used to delineate reservoir distribution in Pematang Brownshale. Based on CWT analysis the anomalies are only visible on the frequency of I5 and I0 Hz maps, which are categorized as low frequencies. Low-frequency shadow anomaly is commonly used as an indication of the presence of hydrocarbons. The distribution of these anomalies is covering an area of approximately 3840.66 acres or equal to I554.25 sq. km, where the low-frequency pattern is interpreted as a deltaic lacustrine feature. By considering the Pematang Brown Shale of Malacca Strait area as a potential reservoir, it would open new play to another basin that has similar characteristics.

Impacts of urbanization on the distribution of heavy metals in soils along the Huangpu River, the drinking water source for Shanghai.

PubMed

Bai, Yang; Wang, Min; Peng, Chi; Alatalo, Juha M

2016-03-01

We investigated the horizontal and vertical distribution of heavy metals (Hg, Pb, Zn, Cu, Cd, As, Ni, and Cr) in soils in the water source protection zone for Shanghai to study the origins of these metals, their connections with urbanization, and their potential risk posed on the ecosystem. Determination of metal concentrations in 50 topsoil samples and nine soil profiles indicated that Hg, Pb, Zn, and Cu were present in significantly higher concentrations in topsoil than in deep soil layers. The spatial distributions of Hg, Pb, Zn, and Cu and contamination hotspots for these metals in the study area were similar to those near heavy industries and urban built-up areas. Emissions from automobiles resulted in increased soil concentrations of Cu, Pb, and Zn along roadsides, while high concentrations of Hg in the soil resulted from recent atmospheric deposition. Calculation of the potential ecological risk indicated that the integrative risk of these heavy metals in most areas was low, but a few sites surrounding high density of factories showed moderate risks.

Distribution and mobility of arsenic in soils of a mining area (Western Spain).

PubMed

García-Sánchez, A; Alonso-Rojo, P; Santos-Francés, F

2010-09-01

High levels of total and bioavailable As in soils in mining areas may lead to the potential contamination of surface water and groundwater, being toxic to human, plants, and animals. The soils in the studied area (Province of Salamanca, Spain) recorded a total As concentration that varied from 5.5mg/kg to 150mg/kg, and water-soluble As ranged from 0.004mg/kg to 0.107mg/kg, often exceeding the guideline limits for agricultural soil (50mg/kg total As, 0.04mg/kg water-soluble As). The range of As concentration in pond water was <0.001microg/l-60microg/l, with 40% of samples exceeding the maximum permissible level (10microg/l) for drinking water. Estimated bioavailable As in soil varied from 0.045mg/kg to 0.760mg/kg, around six times higher than water-soluble As fraction, which may pose a high potential risk in regard to its entry into food chain. Soil column leaching tests show an As potential mobility constant threatening water contamination by continuous leaching. The vertical distribution of As through soil profiles suggests a deposition mechanism of this element on the top-soils that involves the wind or water transport of mine tailings. A similar vertical distribution of As and organic matter (OM) contents in soil profiles, as well as, significant correlations between As concentrations and OM and N contents, suggests that type and content of soil OM are major factors for determining the content, distribution, and mobilization of As in the soil. Due to the low supergenic mobility of this element in mining environments, the soil pollution degree in the studied area is moderate, in spite of the elevated As contents in mine tailings. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distribution and habitat use of red panda in the Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape of Nepal

PubMed Central

Sherpa, Peema; Thapa, Gokarna Jung; Kokh, Manish; Lama, Sonam Tashi; Khanal, Kapil; Thapa, Arjun; Jnawali, Shant Raj

2017-01-01

In Nepal, the red panda (Ailurus fulgens) has been sparsely studied, although its range covers a wide area. The present study was carried out in the previously untapped Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in central Nepal with an aim to explore current distributional status and identify key habitat use. Extensive field surveys conducted in 10 red panda range districts were used to estimate species distribution by presence-absence occupancy modeling and to predict distribution by presence-only modeling. The presence of red pandas was recorded in five districts: Rasuwa, Nuwakot, Myagdi, Baglung and Dhading. The predictive distribution model indicated that 1,904.44 km2 of potential red panda habitat is available in CHAL with the protected area covering nearly 41% of the total habitat. The habitat suitability analysis based on the probability of occurrence showed only 16.58% (A = 315.81 km2) of the total potential habitat is highly suitable. Red Panda occupancy was estimated to be around 0.0667, indicating nearly 7% (218 km2) of the total habitat is occupied with an average detection probability of 0.4482±0.377. Based on the habitat use analysis, altogether eight variables including elevation, slope, aspect, proximity to water sources, bamboo abundance, height, cover, and seasonal precipitation were observed to have significant roles in the distribution of red pandas. In addition, 25 tree species were documented from red panda sign plots out of 165 species recorded in the survey area. Most common was Betula utilis followed by Rhododendron spp. and Abies spectabilis. The extirpation of red pandas in previously reported areas indicates a need for immediate action for the long-term conservation of this species in CHAL. PMID:29020020

Distribution and habitat use of red panda in the Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape of Nepal.

PubMed

Bista, Damber; Shrestha, Saroj; Sherpa, Peema; Thapa, Gokarna Jung; Kokh, Manish; Lama, Sonam Tashi; Khanal, Kapil; Thapa, Arjun; Jnawali, Shant Raj

2017-01-01

In Nepal, the red panda (Ailurus fulgens) has been sparsely studied, although its range covers a wide area. The present study was carried out in the previously untapped Chitwan-Annapurna Landscape (CHAL) situated in central Nepal with an aim to explore current distributional status and identify key habitat use. Extensive field surveys conducted in 10 red panda range districts were used to estimate species distribution by presence-absence occupancy modeling and to predict distribution by presence-only modeling. The presence of red pandas was recorded in five districts: Rasuwa, Nuwakot, Myagdi, Baglung and Dhading. The predictive distribution model indicated that 1,904.44 km2 of potential red panda habitat is available in CHAL with the protected area covering nearly 41% of the total habitat. The habitat suitability analysis based on the probability of occurrence showed only 16.58% (A = 315.81 km2) of the total potential habitat is highly suitable. Red Panda occupancy was estimated to be around 0.0667, indicating nearly 7% (218 km2) of the total habitat is occupied with an average detection probability of 0.4482±0.377. Based on the habitat use analysis, altogether eight variables including elevation, slope, aspect, proximity to water sources, bamboo abundance, height, cover, and seasonal precipitation were observed to have significant roles in the distribution of red pandas. In addition, 25 tree species were documented from red panda sign plots out of 165 species recorded in the survey area. Most common was Betula utilis followed by Rhododendron spp. and Abies spectabilis. The extirpation of red pandas in previously reported areas indicates a need for immediate action for the long-term conservation of this species in CHAL.

Designing optimized multi-species monitoring networks to detect range shifts driven by climate change: a case study with bats in the North of Portugal.

PubMed

Amorim, Francisco; Carvalho, Sílvia B; Honrado, João; Rebelo, Hugo

2014-01-01

Here we develop a framework to design multi-species monitoring networks using species distribution models and conservation planning tools to optimize the location of monitoring stations to detect potential range shifts driven by climate change. For this study, we focused on seven bat species in Northern Portugal (Western Europe). Maximum entropy modelling was used to predict the likely occurrence of those species under present and future climatic conditions. By comparing present and future predicted distributions, we identified areas where each species is likely to gain, lose or maintain suitable climatic space. We then used a decision support tool (the Marxan software) to design three optimized monitoring networks considering: a) changes in species likely occurrence, b) species conservation status, and c) level of volunteer commitment. For present climatic conditions, species distribution models revealed that areas suitable for most species occur in the north-eastern part of the region. However, areas predicted to become climatically suitable in the future shifted towards west. The three simulated monitoring networks, adaptable for an unpredictable volunteer commitment, included 28, 54 and 110 sampling locations respectively, distributed across the study area and covering the potential full range of conditions where species range shifts may occur. Our results show that our framework outperforms the traditional approach that only considers current species ranges, in allocating monitoring stations distributed across different categories of predicted shifts in species distributions. This study presents a straightforward framework to design monitoring schemes aimed specifically at testing hypotheses about where and when species ranges may shift with climatic changes, while also ensuring surveillance of general population trends.

[Geographical distribution and habitat of Trochilidae (Aves) in the state of Guerrero, Mexico].

PubMed

Sierra-Morales, Pablo; Almazán-Núñez, Carlos; Beltrán-Sánchez, Elizabeth; Ríos-Muñoz, César A; Coro Arizmendi, María del

2016-03-01

The distribution and abundance of species of Trochillidae family is usually influenced by the flowering and phenology of plants used as a feeding source, mainly in primary forest, so that changes in vegetation cover could impact their populations. We analyzed and characterized the geographical distribution and habitat for 22 species of resident hummingbirds in the state of Guerrero using the vegetation and the land use map of INEGI Series IV (2007-2010). Distribution models were generated with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule Set Production (GARP), using historical records of scientific collections and fieldwork (2001-2009), in combination with climatic and topographic variables. Of the 22 modeled species, six are endemic to Mexico, the same number of species found in a risk category. The highest concentration with regards to richness (14-20 species), endemism (5-6 species) and number of threatened species of hummingbirds (5-6 species) occurred in the biotic province of Sierra Madre del Sur. However, the potential distribution of most of the hummingbirds occurred in disturbed sites or agroecosystems, as a result of changes in land-use. For Campylopterus hemileucurus, Lamprolaima rhami and Heliomaster longisrostris, their potential distribution was highest in areas of primary vegetation. Areas of high hummingbirds presence do not coincide with the Important Bird Areas proposed for bird conservation in Guerrero, considering that, despite its diversity and its extreme popularity, from the conservation perspective hummingbirds have received relatively little attention.

Using a topographic index to distribute variable source area runoff predicted with the SCS curve-number equation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyon, Steve W.; Walter, M. Todd; Gérard-Marchant, Pierre; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

2004-10-01

Because the traditional Soil Conservation Service curve-number (SCS-CN) approach continues to be used ubiquitously in water quality models, new application methods are needed that are consistent with variable source area (VSA) hydrological processes in the landscape. We developed and tested a distributed approach for applying the traditional SCS-CN equation to watersheds where VSA hydrology is a dominant process. Predicting the location of source areas is important for watershed planning because restricting potentially polluting activities from runoff source areas is fundamental to controlling non-point-source pollution. The method presented here used the traditional SCS-CN approach to predict runoff volume and spatial extent of saturated areas and a topographic index, like that used in TOPMODEL, to distribute runoff source areas through watersheds. The resulting distributed CN-VSA method was applied to two subwatersheds of the Delaware basin in the Catskill Mountains region of New York State and one watershed in south-eastern Australia to produce runoff-probability maps. Observed saturated area locations in the watersheds agreed with the distributed CN-VSA method. Results showed good agreement with those obtained from the previously validated soil moisture routing (SMR) model. When compared with the traditional SCS-CN method, the distributed CN-VSA method predicted a similar total volume of runoff, but vastly different locations of runoff generation. Thus, the distributed CN-VSA approach provides a physically based method that is simple enough to be incorporated into water quality models, and other tools that currently use the traditional SCS-CN method, while still adhering to the principles of VSA hydrology.

Spatial-temporal distribution and risk assessment of mercury in different fractions in surface sediments from the Yangtze River estuary.

PubMed

Wang, Qingrui; Liu, Ruimin; Men, Cong; Xu, Fei; Guo, Lijia; Shen, Zhenyao

2017-11-15

The temporal and spatial distributions of mercury in different fractions and its potential ecological risk were investigated in sediments from the Yangtze River estuary (YRE) by analyzing data collected from the study area. The results showed that mercury in the organic and residual fractions had dominant proportions, from 15.2% to 48.52% and from 45.96% to 81.59%, respectively. The fractions were more susceptible to seasonal changes than other fractions. Higher proportions of mercury in organic fraction were found in wet seasons; the opposite was true for mercury in residual fraction. With respect to the spatial distribution, the concentration mercury in exchangeable, carbonate and Fe-Mn oxide fractions showed a decreasing trend from the inner estuary to the outer estuary, but no obvious trends were found in the distributions of mercury in the organic and residual fractions. The risk assessment code (RAC) was used to evaluate the potential ecological risk in the study area based on the proportions of exchangeable and carbonate fractions. The average RAC values during the four periods were 6.00%, 2.20%, 2.83%, and 0.61%. Although these values show that the risk in the study area is generally low, the distribution of RAC values indicates that the inner estuary has a medium risk, with a value up to 10%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Full-Potential Modeling of Blade-Vortex Interactions

DTIC Science & Technology

1997-12-01

modeled by any arbitrary distribution. Stremel (ref. 23) uses a method in which the vortex is modeled with an area-weighted distribution of vorticity. A...Helicopter Rotor. Ph.D. Thesis, StanfordUniv., 1978. 23. Stremel , P. M.: Computational Methods for Non-Planar Vortex Wake Flow Fields. M.S. Thesis

Exploiting Dragon Envisat Times Series and Other Earth Observation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marie, Tiphanie; Lai, Xijun; Huber, Claire; Chen, Xiaoling; Uribe, Carlos; Huang, Shifeng; Lafaye, Murielle; Yesou, Herve

2010-10-01

Earth Observation data were used for mapping potential Schistosomiasis japonica distribution, within Poyang Lake (Jiangxi Province, PR China). In the first of two steps, areas suitable for the development of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host snail of Schistosoma japonicum, were derived from submersion time parameters and vegetation community indicators. Y early maps from 2003 to 2008 indicate five principally potential endemic areas: Poyang Lake National Nature Reserve, Dalianzi Hu, Gan Delta, Po Jiang and Xi He. Monthly maps showing the annual dynamic of potential O. hupensis presence areas were obtained from December 2005 to December 2008. In a second step human potential transmission risk was handled through the mapping of settlements and the identification of some human activities. The urban areas and settlements were mapped all around the lake and fishing net locations in the central part of Poyang Lake were identified. Finally, data crossing of the different parameters highlight the potential risk of transmission in most of the fishing nets areas.

Monitoring Temporal Evolution of the Presence Intermediate Host of the Schistosomiasis and its Risk Transmission Based on Dragon Times Series in Poyang Lake Area Jiangxi Province, P.R. China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marie, Tiphanie; Lai, Xijun; Huber, Claire; Chen, Xiaoling; Uribe, Carlos; Huang, Shifeng; LaCaux, Jean-Pierre; LaFaye, Murielle; Yesou, Herve

2010-12-01

Earth Observation data were used for mapping potential Schistosomiasis japonica distribution, within Poyang Lake (Jiangxi Province, PR China), as well as transmission risk associated with fishing activities. Areas suitable for the development of Oncomelania hupensis, the intermediate host snail of Schistosoma japonicum, were derived from submersion time parameters and vegetation community indicators. Monthly maps showing the annual dynamic of potential O. hupensis presence areas were obtained from December 2005 to December 2008. Human potential transmission risk was handled through the mapping of settlements and the identification of the principal human activity sensitive to transmission: fishing in the central part of Poyang Lake. Finally, data crossing of the different parameters highlight the potential risk of transmission in most of the fishing nets areas.

Climatic Factors Driving Invasion of the Tiger Mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into New Areas of Trentino, Northern Italy

PubMed Central

Castellani, Cristina; Arnoldi, Daniele; Rizzoli, Annapaola

2011-01-01

Background The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies. Methodology/Principal Findings To identify the areas currently most suitable for the occurrence of the tiger mosquito in the Province of Trento, we combined field entomological observations with analyses of satellite temperature data (MODIS Land Surface Temperature: LST) and human population data. We determine threshold conditions for the survival of overwintering eggs and for adult survival using both January mean temperatures and annual mean temperatures. We show that the 0°C LST threshold for January mean temperatures and the 11°C threshold for annual mean temperatures provide the best predictors for identifying the areas that could potentially support populations of this mosquito. In fact, human population density and distance to human settlements appear to be less important variables affecting mosquito distribution in this area. Finally, we evaluated the future establishment and spread of this species in relation to predicted climate warming by considering the A2 scenario for 2050 statistically downscaled at regional level in which winter and annual temperatures increase by 1.5 and 1°C, respectively. Conclusions/Significance MODIS satellite LST data are useful for accurately predicting potential areas of tiger mosquito distribution and for revealing the range limits of this species in mountainous areas, predictions which could be extended to an European scale. We show that the observed trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change could facilitate further invasion of Ae. albopictus into new areas. PMID:21525991

[Distribution and pollution assessment of heavy metals in soil of relocation areas from the Danjiangkou Reservoir].

PubMed

Zhang, Lei; Qin, Yan-Wen; Zheng, Bing-Hui; Shi, Yao; Han, Chao-Nan

2013-01-01

The aim of this article is to explore the pollution level and potential ecological risk of heavy metals in soil of the relocation areas from the Danjiangkou Reservoir. The contents and spatial distribution of Cd, Pb, Cu, Zn, Cr and As in soil of the relocation areas from the Danjiangkou Reservoir were analyzed. The integrated pollution index and potential ecological risk index were used to evaluate the contamination degree and potential ecological risk of these elements. The results indicated that the average contents of Cd, Pb, Cu, Zn, Cr and As in the samples were 0.61, 23.11, 58.25, 22.65, 58.99 and 16.95 mg x kg(-1), respectively. Compared with the background value of soils from Henan province, all these 6 elements except Zn were enriched to some extent, especially Cd. Similar patterns were observed for the spatial distribution of Cu, Zn, and Pb. Compared with the contents of heavy metals in surface sediments of the typical domestic reservoirs, Cd and As in soil of the relocation areas from the Danjiangkou Reservoir were heavily accumulated. The correlation analysis showed that there were significant positive correlations among Pb, Cu, and Zn. And there was also significant positive correlation between Cr and Pb. In contrast, negative correlation was found between Cr and As. To sum up, the comprehensive assessment results showed that Cd was the primary element with high ecological risk.

Oil spill contamination probability in the southeastern Levantine basin.

PubMed

Goldman, Ron; Biton, Eli; Brokovich, Eran; Kark, Salit; Levin, Noam

2015-02-15

Recent gas discoveries in the eastern Mediterranean Sea led to multiple operations with substantial economic interest, and with them there is a risk of oil spills and their potential environmental impacts. To examine the potential spatial distribution of this threat, we created seasonal maps of the probability of oil spill pollution reaching an area in the Israeli coastal and exclusive economic zones, given knowledge of its initial sources. We performed simulations of virtual oil spills using realistic atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The resulting maps show dominance of the alongshore northerly current, which causes the high probability areas to be stretched parallel to the coast, increasing contamination probability downstream of source points. The seasonal westerly wind forcing determines how wide the high probability areas are, and may also restrict these to a small coastal region near source points. Seasonal variability in probability distribution, oil state, and pollution time is also discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Benchmarking U.S. Small Wind Costs with the Distributed Wind Taxonomy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Orrell, Alice C.; Poehlman, Eric A.

The objective of this report is to benchmark costs for small wind projects installed in the United States using a distributed wind taxonomy. Consequently, this report is a starting point to help expand the U.S. distributed wind market by informing potential areas for small wind cost-reduction opportunities and providing a benchmark to track future small wind cost-reduction progress.

Potential distribution of the viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus in the Great Lakes region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Escobar, Luis E.; Kurath, Gael; Escobar-Dodero, Joaquim; Craft, Meggan E.; Phelps, Nicholas B.D.

2017-01-01

Viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV) genotype IVb has been responsible for large-scale fish mortality events in the Great Lakes of North America. Anticipating the areas of potential VHSV occurrence is key to designing epidemiological surveillance and disease prevention strategies in the Great Lakes basin. We explored the environmental features that could shape the distribution of VHSV, based on remote sensing and climate data via ecological niche modelling. Variables included temperature measured during the day and night, precipitation, vegetation, bathymetry, solar radiation and topographic wetness. VHSV occurrences were obtained from available reports of virus confirmation in laboratory facilities. We fit a Maxent model using VHSV-IVb reports and environmental variables under different parameterizations to identify the best model to determine potential VHSV occurrence based on environmental suitability. VHSV reports were generated from both passive and active surveillance. VHSV occurrences were most abundant near shore sites. We were, however, able to capture the environmental signature of VHSV based on the environmental variables employed in our model, allowing us to identify patterns of VHSV potential occurrence. Our findings suggest that VHSV is not at an ecological equilibrium and more areas could be affected, including areas not in close geographic proximity to past VHSV reports.

Ecological and geographical analysis of the distribution of the mountain tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Ecuador: importance of protected areas in future scenarios of global warming.

PubMed

Ortega-Andrade, H Mauricio; Prieto-Torres, David A; Gómez-Lora, Ignacio; Lizcano, Diego J

2015-01-01

In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km2 in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque's potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador.

Ecological and Geographical Analysis of the Distribution of the Mountain Tapir (Tapirus pinchaque) in Ecuador: Importance of Protected Areas in Future Scenarios of Global Warming

PubMed Central

Ortega-Andrade, H. Mauricio; Prieto-Torres, David A.; Gómez-Lora, Ignacio; Lizcano, Diego J.

2015-01-01

In Ecuador, Tapirus pinchaque is considered to be critically endangered. Although the species has been registered in several localities, its geographic distribution remains unclear, and the effects of climate change and current land uses on this species are largely unknown. We modeled the ecological niche of T. pinchaque using MaxEnt, in order to assess its potential adaptation to present and future climate change scenarios. We evaluated the effects of habitat loss due by current land use, the ecosystem availability and importance of Ecuadorian System of Protected Areas into the models. The model of environmental suitability estimated an extent of occurrence for species of 21,729 km2 in all of Ecuador, mainly occurring along the corridor of the eastern Ecuadorian Andes. A total of 10 Andean ecosystems encompassed ~98% of the area defined by the model, with herbaceous paramo, northeastern Andean montane evergreen forest and northeastern Andes upper montane evergreen forest being the most representative. When considering the effect of habitat loss, a significant reduction in model area (~17%) occurred, and the effect of climate change represented a net reduction up to 37.86%. However, the synergistic effect of both climate change and habitat loss, given current land use practices, could represent a greater risk in the short-term, leading to a net reduction of 19.90 to 44.65% in T. pinchaque’s potential distribution. Even under such a scenarios, several Protected Areas harbor a portion (~36 to 48%) of the potential distribution defined by the models. However, the central and southern populations are highly threatened by habitat loss and climate change. Based on these results and due to the restricted home range of T. pinchaque, its preference for upland forests and paramos, and its small estimated population size in the Andes, we suggest to maintaining its current status as Critically Endangered in Ecuador. PMID:25798851

Modelization of the Current and Future Habitat Suitability of Rhododendron ferrugineum Using Potential Snow Accumulation

PubMed Central

Komac, Benjamin; Esteban, Pere; Trapero, Laura; Caritg, Roger

2016-01-01

Mountain areas are particularly sensitive to climate change. Species distribution models predict important extinctions in these areas whose magnitude will depend on a number of different factors. Here we examine the possible impact of climate change on the Rhododendron ferrugineum (alpenrose) niche in Andorra (Pyrenees). This species currently occupies 14.6 km2 of this country and relies on the protection afforded by snow cover in winter. We used high-resolution climatic data, potential snow accumulation and a combined forecasting method to obtain the realized niche model of this species. Subsequently, we used data from the high-resolution Scampei project climate change projection for the A2, A1B and B1 scenarios to model its future realized niche model. The modelization performed well when predicting the species’s distribution, which improved when we considered the potential snow accumulation, the most important variable influencing its distribution. We thus obtained a potential extent of about 70.7 km2 or 15.1% of the country. We observed an elevation lag distribution between the current and potential distribution of the species, probably due to its slow colonization rate and the small-scale survey of seedlings. Under the three climatic scenarios, the realized niche model of the species will be reduced by 37.9–70.1 km2 by the end of the century and it will become confined to what are today screes and rocky hillside habitats. The particular effects of climate change on seedling establishment, as well as on the species’ plasticity and sensitivity in the event of a reduction of the snow cover, could worsen these predictions. PMID:26824847

Leptospirosis in Mexico: Epidemiology and Potential Distribution of Human Cases

PubMed Central

Sánchez-Montes, Sokani; Espinosa-Martínez, Deborah V.; Ríos-Muñoz, César A.; Berzunza-Cruz, Miriam; Becker, Ingeborg

2015-01-01

Background Leptospirosis is widespread in Mexico, yet the potential distribution and risk of the disease remain unknown. Methodology/Principal Findings We analysed morbidity and mortality according to age and gender based on three sources of data reported by the Ministry of Health and the National Institute of Geography and Statics of Mexico, for the decade 2000–2010. A total of 1,547 cases were reported in 27 states, the majority of which were registered during the rainy season, and the most affected age group was 25–44 years old. Although leptospirosis has been reported as an occupational disease of males, analysis of morbidity in Mexico showed no male preference. A total number of 198 deaths were registered in 21 states, mainly in urban settings. Mortality was higher in males (61.1%) as compared to females (38.9%), and the case fatality ratio was also increased in males. The overall case fatality ratio in Mexico was elevated (12.8%), as compared to other countries. We additionally determined the potential disease distribution by examining the spatial epidemiology combined with spatial modeling using ecological niche modeling techniques. We identified regions where leptospirosis could be present and created a potential distribution map using bioclimatic variables derived from temperature and precipitation. Our data show that the distribution of the cases was more related to temperature (75%) than to precipitation variables. Ecological niche modeling showed predictive areas that were widely distributed in central and southern Mexico, excluding areas characterized by extreme climates. Conclusions/Significance In conclusion, an epidemiological surveillance of leptospirosis is recommended in Mexico, since 55.7% of the country has environmental conditions fulfilling the criteria that favor the presence of the disease. PMID:26207827

Leptospirosis in Mexico: Epidemiology and Potential Distribution of Human Cases.

PubMed

Sánchez-Montes, Sokani; Espinosa-Martínez, Deborah V; Ríos-Muñoz, César A; Berzunza-Cruz, Miriam; Becker, Ingeborg

2015-01-01

Leptospirosis is widespread in Mexico, yet the potential distribution and risk of the disease remain unknown. We analysed morbidity and mortality according to age and gender based on three sources of data reported by the Ministry of Health and the National Institute of Geography and Statics of Mexico, for the decade 2000-2010. A total of 1,547 cases were reported in 27 states, the majority of which were registered during the rainy season, and the most affected age group was 25-44 years old. Although leptospirosis has been reported as an occupational disease of males, analysis of morbidity in Mexico showed no male preference. A total number of 198 deaths were registered in 21 states, mainly in urban settings. Mortality was higher in males (61.1%) as compared to females (38.9%), and the case fatality ratio was also increased in males. The overall case fatality ratio in Mexico was elevated (12.8%), as compared to other countries. We additionally determined the potential disease distribution by examining the spatial epidemiology combined with spatial modeling using ecological niche modeling techniques. We identified regions where leptospirosis could be present and created a potential distribution map using bioclimatic variables derived from temperature and precipitation. Our data show that the distribution of the cases was more related to temperature (75%) than to precipitation variables. Ecological niche modeling showed predictive areas that were widely distributed in central and southern Mexico, excluding areas characterized by extreme climates. In conclusion, an epidemiological surveillance of leptospirosis is recommended in Mexico, since 55.7% of the country has environmental conditions fulfilling the criteria that favor the presence of the disease.

Zonation of High Disaster Potential Communities for Remote Mountainous Areas in Southern Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Yie-Ruey; Tsai, Kuang-Jung; Chang, Chwen-Ming; Chen, Jing-Wen; Chiang, Jie-Lun; Lu, Yi-Ching; Tsai, Hui-Wen

2017-04-01

About three-quarters of Taiwan are covered by hillside areas. Most of the hillside regions in Taiwan are sedimentary and metamorphic rocks which are fragile and highly weathered. In recent years, human development coupled with the global impact of extreme weather, typhoons and heavy rains have caused the landslide disasters and leaded to human causalities and properties loss. The landslides also endanger the major public works and almost make the overall industrial economic development and transport path overshadowed by disasters. Therefore, this research assesses the exploration of landslide potential analysis and zonation of high disaster potential communities for remote mountainous areas in southern Taiwan. In this study, the time series of disaster records and land change of remote mountainous areas in southern Taiwan are collected using techniques of interpretation from satellite images corresponding to multi-year and multi-rainfall events. To quantify the slope hazards, we adopt statistical analysis model to analyze massive data of slope disasters and explore the variance, difference and trend of influence factors of hillside disaster; establish the disaster potential analysis model under the climate change and construct the threshold of disaster. Through analysis results of disaster potential assessment, the settlement distribution with high-risk hazard potential of study area is drawn with geographic information system. Results of image classification show that the values of coefficient of agreement for different time periods are at high level. Compared with the historical disaster records of research areas, the accuracy of predicted landslide potential is in reasonable confidence level. The spatial distribution of landslide depends on the interaction of rainfall patterns, slope and elevation of the research area. The results also show that the number and scale of secondary landslide sites are much larger than those of new landslide sites after rainfall. The greater the slope land disturbance, the more likely the scale of secondary landslide uprises. The results of the map for the zonation of high-disaster potential communities can be a useful reference for the government to plan strategies on adaptation to climate change for remote mountainous communities in southern Taiwan.

Establishment of Groundwater Arsenic Potential Distribution and Discrimination in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Kuo Sheng; Chen, Yu Ying; Chung Liu, Chih; Lin, Chien Wen

2016-04-01

According to the last 10 years groundwater monitoring data in Taiwan, Arsenic concentration increase rapidly in some areas, similar to Bengal and India, the main source of Arsenic-polluted groundwater is geological sediments, through reducing reactions. There are many researches indicate that high concentration of Arsenic in groundwater poses the risk to water safety, for example, the farm lands irrigation water contains Arsenic cause the concentration of Arsenic increase in soil and crops. Based on the management of water usage instead of remediation in the situation of insufficient water. Taiwan EPA has been developed the procedures of Arsenic contamination potential area establishment and source discriminated process. Taiwan EPA use the procedures to determine the management of using groundwater, and the proposing usage of Arsenic groundwater accordance with different objects. Agencies could cooperate with the water quality standard or water needs, studying appropriate water purification methods and the groundwater depth, water consumption, thus achieve the goal of water safety and environmental protection, as a reference of policy to control total Arsenic concentration in groundwater. Keywords: Arsenic; Distribution; Discrimination; Pollution potential area of Arsenic; Origin evaluation of groundwater Arsenic

Is Switzerland Suitable for the Invasion of Aedes albopictus?

PubMed Central

Neteler, Markus; Metz, Markus; Rocchini, Duccio; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Flacio, Eleonora; Engeler, Luca; Guidi, Valeria; Lüthy, Peter; Tonolla, Mauro

2013-01-01

Background Over the last 30 years, the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, has rapidly spread around the world. The European distribution comprises the Mediterranean basin with a first appearance in Switzerland in 2003. Early identification of the most suitable areas in Switzerland allowing progressive invasion by this species is considered crucial to suggest adequate surveillance and control plans. Methodology/Principal Findings We identified the most suitable areas for invasion and establishment of Ae. albopictus in Switzerland. The potential distribution areas linked to the current climatic suitability were assessed using remotely sensed land surface temperature data recorded by the MODIS satellite sensors. Suitable areas for adult survival and overwintering of diapausing eggs were also identified for future climatic conditions, considering two different climate change scenarios (A1B, A2) for the periods 2020–2049 and 2045–2074. At present, the areas around Lake Geneva in western Switzerland provide suitable climatic conditions for Ae. albopictus. In northern Switzerland, parts of the Rhine valley, around Lake Constance, as well as the surroundings of Lake Neuchâtel, appear to be suitable for the survival at least of adult Ae. albopictus. However, these areas are characterized by winters currently being too cold for survival and development of diapausing eggs. In southern Switzerland, Ae. albopictus is already well-established, especially in the Canton of Ticino. For the years 2020–2049, the predicted possible spread of the tiger mosquito does not differ significantly from its potential current distribution. However, important expansions are obtained if the period is extended to the years 2045–2074, when Ae. albopictus may invade large new areas. Conclusions/Significance Several parts of Switzerland provide suitable climatic conditions for invasion and establishment of Ae. albopictus. The current distribution and rapid spread in other European countries suggest that the tiger mosquito will colonize new areas in Switzerland in the near future. PMID:24349190

Is Switzerland suitable for the invasion of Aedes albopictus [corrected]?

PubMed

Neteler, Markus; Metz, Markus; Rocchini, Duccio; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Flacio, Eleonora; Engeler, Luca; Guidi, Valeria; Lüthy, Peter; Tonolla, Mauro

2013-01-01

Over the last 30 years, the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, has rapidly spread around the world. The European distribution comprises the Mediterranean basin with a first appearance in Switzerland in 2003. Early identification of the most suitable areas in Switzerland allowing progressive invasion by this species is considered crucial to suggest adequate surveillance and control plans. We identified the most suitable areas for invasion and establishment of Ae. albopictus in Switzerland. The potential distribution areas linked to the current climatic suitability were assessed using remotely sensed land surface temperature data recorded by the MODIS satellite sensors. Suitable areas for adult survival and overwintering of diapausing eggs were also identified for future climatic conditions, considering two different climate change scenarios (A1B, A2) for the periods 2020-2049 and 2045-2074. At present, the areas around Lake Geneva in western Switzerland provide suitable climatic conditions for Ae. albopictus. In northern Switzerland, parts of the Rhine valley, around Lake Constance, as well as the surroundings of Lake Neuchâtel, appear to be suitable for the survival at least of adult Ae. albopictus. However, these areas are characterized by winters currently being too cold for survival and development of diapausing eggs. In southern Switzerland, Ae. albopictus is already well-established, especially in the Canton of Ticino. For the years 2020-2049, the predicted possible spread of the tiger mosquito does not differ significantly from its potential current distribution. However, important expansions are obtained if the period is extended to the years 2045-2074, when Ae. albopictus may invade large new areas. Several parts of Switzerland provide suitable climatic conditions for invasion and establishment of Ae. albopictus. The current distribution and rapid spread in other European countries suggest that the tiger mosquito will colonize new areas in Switzerland in the near future.

Modeling Hawaiian Ecosystem Degradation due to Invasive Plants under Current and Future Climates

PubMed Central

Vorsino, Adam E.; Fortini, Lucas B.; Amidon, Fred A.; Miller, Stephen E.; Jacobi, James D.; Price, Jonathan P.; Gon, Sam 'Ohukani'ohi'a; Koob, Gregory A.

2014-01-01

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions. PMID:24805254

Modeling Hawaiian ecosystem degradation due to invasive plants under current and future climates.

PubMed

Vorsino, Adam E; Fortini, Lucas B; Amidon, Fred A; Miller, Stephen E; Jacobi, James D; Price, Jonathan P; Gon, Sam 'ohukani'ohi'a; Koob, Gregory A

2014-01-01

Occupation of native ecosystems by invasive plant species alters their structure and/or function. In Hawaii, a subset of introduced plants is regarded as extremely harmful due to competitive ability, ecosystem modification, and biogeochemical habitat degradation. By controlling this subset of highly invasive ecosystem modifiers, conservation managers could significantly reduce native ecosystem degradation. To assess the invasibility of vulnerable native ecosystems, we selected a proxy subset of these invasive plants and developed robust ensemble species distribution models to define their respective potential distributions. The combinations of all species models using both binary and continuous habitat suitability projections resulted in estimates of species richness and diversity that were subsequently used to define an invasibility metric. The invasibility metric was defined from species distribution models with <0.7 niche overlap (Warrens I) and relatively discriminative distributions (Area Under the Curve >0.8; True Skill Statistic >0.75) as evaluated per species. Invasibility was further projected onto a 2100 Hawaii regional climate change scenario to assess the change in potential habitat degradation. The distribution defined by the invasibility metric delineates areas of known and potential invasibility under current climate conditions and, when projected into the future, estimates potential reductions in native ecosystem extent due to climate-driven invasive incursion. We have provided the code used to develop these metrics to facilitate their wider use (Code S1). This work will help determine the vulnerability of native-dominated ecosystems to the combined threats of climate change and invasive species, and thus help prioritize ecosystem and species management actions.

Climate effects on the distribution of wetland habitats and connectivity in networks of migratory waterbirds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bellisario, Bruno; Cerfolli, Fulvio; Nascetti, Giuseppe

2014-07-01

The establishment and maintenance of conservation areas are among the most common measures to mitigate the loss of biodiversity. However, recent advances in conservation biology have challenged the reliability of such areas to cope with variation in climate conditions. Climate change can reshuffle the geographic distribution of species, but in many cases suitable habitats become scarce or unavailable, limiting the ability to migrate or adapt in response to modified environments. In this respect, the extent to which existing protected areas are able to compensate changes in habitat conditions to ensure the persistence of species still remains unclear. We used a spatially explicit model to measure the effects of climate change on the potential distribution of wetland habitats and connectivity of Natura 2000 sites in Italy. The effects of climate change were measured on the potential for water accumulation in a given site, as a surrogate measure for the persistence of aquatic ecosystems and their associated migratory waterbirds. Climate impacts followed a geographic trend, changing the distribution of suitable habitats for migrants and highlighting a latitudinal threshold beyond which the connectivity reaches a sudden collapse. Our findings show the relative poor reliability of most sites in dealing with changing habitat conditions and ensure the long-term connectivity, with possible consequences for the persistence of species. Although alterations of climate suitability and habitat destruction could impact critical areas for migratory waterbirds, more research is needed to evaluate all possible long-term effects on the connectivity of migratory networks.

Spatiotemporal electrochemical measurements across an electric double layer capacitor electrode with application to aqueous sodium hybrid batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tully, Katherine C.; Whitacre, Jay F.; Litster, Shawn

2014-02-01

This paper presents in-situ spatiotemporal measurements of the electrolyte phase potential within an electric double layer capacitor (EDLC) negative electrode as envisaged for use in an aqueous hybrid battery for grid-scale energy storage. The ultra-thick electrodes used in these batteries to reduce non-functional material costs require sufficiently fast through-plane mass and charge transport to attain suitable charging and discharging rates. To better evaluate the through-plane transport, we have developed an electrode scaffold (ES) for making in situ electrolyte potential distribution measurements at discrete known distances across the thickness of an uninterrupted EDLC negative electrode. Using finite difference methods, we calculate local current, volumetric charging current and charge storage distributions from the spatiotemporal electrolyte potential measurements. These potential distributions provide insight into complex phenomena that cannot be directly observed using other existing methods. Herein, we use the distributions to identify areas of the electrode that are underutilized, assess the effects of various parameters on the cumulative charge storage distribution, and evaluate an effectiveness factor for charge storage in EDLC electrodes.

Dairy Farm Worker Training at Tompkins Cortland Community College 1989-1990.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maloney, Thomas R.; San Jule, Timothy F.

Tompkins Cortland Community College (New York) developed a procedure to recruit and train potential dairy farm workers. A number of marketing efforts were undertaken: distribution of 150 recruitment posters, distribution of public service announcements to 27 area news agencies, 76 paid radio spots broadcast by 4 stations, and staff member…

Modeling and Spatially Distributing Forest Net Primary Production at the Regional Scale

Treesearch

R.A. Mickler; T.S. Earnhardt; J.A. Moore

2002-01-01

Abstract - Forest, agricultural, rangeland, wetland, and urban landscapes have different rates of carbon sequestration and total carbon sequestration potential under alternative management options. Changes in the proportion and spatial distribution of land use could enhance or degrade that area’s ability to sequester carbon in terrestrial ecosystems...

Predicting the distributions of Egypt's medicinal plants and their potential shifts under future climate change.

PubMed

Kaky, Emad; Gilbert, Francis

2017-01-01

Climate change is one of the most difficult of challenges to conserving biodiversity, especially for countries with few data on the distributions of their taxa. Species distribution modelling is a modern approach to the assessment of the potential effects of climate change on biodiversity, with the great advantage of being robust to small amounts of data. Taking advantage of a recently validated dataset, we use the medicinal plants of Egypt to identify hotspots of diversity now and in the future by predicting the effect of climate change on the pattern of species richness using species distribution modelling. Then we assess how Egypt's current Protected Area network is likely to perform in protecting plants under climate change. The patterns of species richness show that in most cases the A2a 'business as usual' scenario was more harmful than the B2a 'moderate mitigation' scenario. Predicted species richness inside Protected Areas was higher than outside under all scenarios, indicating that Egypt's PAs are well placed to help conserve medicinal plants.

Ecological niche modeling of coastal dune plants and future potential distribution in response to climate change and sea level rise.

PubMed

Mendoza-González, Gabriela; Martínez, M Luisa; Rojas-Soto, Octavio R; Vázquez, Gabriela; Gallego-Fernández, Juan B

2013-08-01

Climate change (CC) and sea level rise (SLR) are phenomena that could have severe impacts on the distribution of coastal dune vegetation. To explore this we modeled the climatic niches of six coastal dunes plant species that grow along the shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan Peninsula, and projected climatic niches to future potential distributions based on two CC scenarios and SLR projections. Our analyses suggest that distribution of coastal plants will be severely limited, and more so in the case of local endemics (Chamaecrista chamaecristoides, Palafoxia lindenii, Cakile edentula). The possibilities of inland migration to the potential 'new shoreline' will be limited by human infrastructure and ecosystem alteration that will lead to a 'coastal squeeze' of the coastal habitats. Finally, we identified areas as future potential refuges for the six species in central Gulf of Mexico, and northern Yucatán Peninsula especially under CC and SLR scenarios. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global decline in suitable habitat for Angiostrongylus ( = Parastrongylus) cantonensis: the role of climate change.

PubMed

York, Emily M; Butler, Christopher J; Lord, Wayne D

2014-01-01

Climate change is implicated in the alteration of the ranges of species worldwide. Such shifts in species distributions may introduce parasites/pathogens, hosts, and vectors associated with disease to new areas. The parasite Angiostrongylus ( = Parastrongylus) cantonensis is an invasive species that causes eosinophilic meningitis in humans and neurological abnormalities in domestic/wild animals. Although native to southeastern Asia, A. cantonensis has now been reported from more than 30 countries worldwide. Given the health risks, it is important to describe areas with potentially favorable climate for the establishment of A. cantonensis, as well as areas where this pathogen might become established in the future. We used the program Maxent to develop an ecological niche model for A. cantonensis based on 86 localities obtained from published literature. We then modeled areas of potential A. cantonensis distribution as well as areas projected to have suitable climatic conditions under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios by the 2050s and the 2070s. The best model contained three bioclimatic variables: mean diurnal temperature range, minimum temperature of coldest month and precipitation of warmest quarter. Potentially suitable habitat for A. cantonensis was located worldwide in tropical and subtropical regions. Under all climate change RCP scenarios, the center of the projected distribution shifted away from the equator at a rate of 68-152 km per decade. However, the extent of areas with highly suitable habitat (>50%) declined by 10.66-15.66% by the 2050s and 13.11-16.11% by the 2070s. These results conflict with previous studies, which have generally found that the prevalence of tropical pathogens will increase during the 21st century. Moreover, it is likely that A. cantonensis will continue to expand its current range in the near future due to introductions and host expansion, whereas climate change will reduce the total geographic area of most suitable climatic conditions during the coming decades.

The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Agricultural Pests: The Case of the Coffee White Stem Borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Kutywayo, Dumisani; Chemura, Abel; Kusena, Winmore; Chidoko, Pardon; Mahoya, Caleb

2013-01-01

The production of agricultural commodities faces increased risk of pests, diseases and other stresses due to climate change and variability. This study assesses the potential distribution of agricultural pests under projected climatic scenarios using evidence from the African coffee white stem borer (CWB), Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), an important pest of coffee in Zimbabwe. A species distribution modeling approach utilising Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) was applied on current and projected climate data obtained from the WorldClim database and occurrence data (presence and absence) collected through on-farm biological surveys in Chipinge, Chimanimani, Mutare and Mutasa districts in Zimbabwe. Results from both the BRT and GLM indicate that precipitation-related variables are more important in determining species range for the CWB than temperature related variables. The CWB has extensive potential habitats in all coffee areas with Mutasa district having the largest model average area suitable for CWB under current and projected climatic conditions. Habitat ranges for CWB will increase under future climate scenarios for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutare districts while it will decrease in Mutasa district. The highest percentage change in area suitable for the CWB was for Chimanimani district with a model average of 49.1% (3 906 ha) increase in CWB range by 2080. The BRT and GLM predictions gave similar predicted ranges for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutasa districts compared to the high variation in current and projected habitat area for CWB in Mutare district. The study concludes that suitable area for CWB will increase significantly in Zimbabwe due to climate change and there is need to develop adaptation mechanisms. PMID:24014222

Influences of climate change on the potential distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis sensu lato (Psychodidae: Phlebotominae).

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Campbell, Lindsay P; Moo-Llanes, David A; Travi, Bruno; González, Camila; Ferro, María Cristina; Ferreira, Gabriel Eduardo Melim; Brandão-Filho, Sinval P; Cupolillo, Elisa; Ramsey, Janine; Leffer, Andreia Mauruto Chernaki; Pech-May, Angélica; Shaw, Jeffrey J

2017-09-01

This study explores the present day distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in relation to climate, and transfers the knowledge gained to likely future climatic conditions to predict changes in the species' potential distribution. We used ecological niche models calibrated based on occurrences of the species complex from across its known geographic range. Anticipated distributional changes varied by region, from stability to expansion or decline. Overall, models indicated no significant north-south expansion beyond present boundaries. However, some areas suitable both at present and in the future (e.g., Pacific coast of Ecuador and Peru) may offer opportunities for distributional expansion. Our models anticipated potential range expansion in southern Brazil and Argentina, but were variably successful in anticipating specific cases. The most significant climate-related change anticipated in the species' range was with regard to range continuity in the Amazon Basin, which is likely to increase in coming decades. Rather than making detailed forecasts of actual locations where Lu. longipalpis will appear in coming years, our models make interesting and potentially important predictions of broader-scale distributional tendencies that can inform heath policy and mitigation efforts. Copyright © 2017 Australian Society for Parasitology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GIS habitat analysis for lesser prairie-chickens in southeastern New Mexico.

PubMed

Johnson, Kristine; Neville, Teri B; Neville, Paul

2006-12-04

We conducted Geographic Information System (GIS) habitat analyses for lesser prairie-chicken (LPCH, Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) conservation planning. The 876,799 ha study area included most of the occupied habitat for the LPCH in New Mexico. The objectives were to identify and quantify: 1. suitable LPCH habitat in New Mexico, 2. conversion of native habitats, 3. potential for habitat restoration, and 4. unsuitable habitat available for oil and gas activities. We found 16% of suitable habitat (6% of the study area) distributed in 13 patches of at least 3,200 ha and 11% of suitable habitat (4% of the study area) distributed in four patches over 7,238 ha. The area converted from native vegetation types comprised 17% of the study area. Ninety-five percent of agricultural conversion occurred on private lands in the northeastern corner of the study area. Most known herbicide-related conversions (82%) occurred in rangelands in the western part of the study area, on lands managed primarily by the US Bureau of Land Management (BLM). We identified 88,190 ha (10% of the study area) of habitats with reasonable restoration potential. Sixty-two percent of the primary population area (PPA) contained occupied, suitable, or potentially suitable habitat, leaving 38% that could be considered for oil and gas development. Although suitable LPCH habitat appears at first glance to be abundant in southeastern New Mexico, only a fraction of apparently suitable vegetation types constitute quality habitat. However, we identified habitat patches that could be restored through mesquite control or shin-oak reintroduction. The analysis also identified areas of unsuitable habitat with low restoration potential that could be targeted for oil and gas exploration, in lieu of occupied, high-quality habitats. Used in combination with GIS analysis and current LPCH population data, the habitat map represents a powerful conservation and management tool.

GIS habitat analysis for lesser prairie-chickens in southeastern New Mexico

PubMed Central

Johnson, Kristine; Neville, Teri B; Neville, Paul

2006-01-01

Background We conducted Geographic Information System (GIS) habitat analyses for lesser prairie-chicken (LPCH, Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) conservation planning. The 876,799 ha study area included most of the occupied habitat for the LPCH in New Mexico. The objectives were to identify and quantify: 1. suitable LPCH habitat in New Mexico, 2. conversion of native habitats, 3. potential for habitat restoration, and 4. unsuitable habitat available for oil and gas activities. Results We found 16% of suitable habitat (6% of the study area) distributed in 13 patches of at least 3,200 ha and 11% of suitable habitat (4% of the study area) distributed in four patches over 7,238 ha. The area converted from native vegetation types comprised 17% of the study area. Ninety-five percent of agricultural conversion occurred on private lands in the northeastern corner of the study area. Most known herbicide-related conversions (82%) occurred in rangelands in the western part of the study area, on lands managed primarily by the US Bureau of Land Management (BLM). We identified 88,190 ha (10% of the study area) of habitats with reasonable restoration potential. Sixty-two percent of the primary population area (PPA) contained occupied, suitable, or potentially suitable habitat, leaving 38% that could be considered for oil and gas development. Conclusion Although suitable LPCH habitat appears at first glance to be abundant in southeastern New Mexico, only a fraction of apparently suitable vegetation types constitute quality habitat. However, we identified habitat patches that could be restored through mesquite control or shin-oak reintroduction. The analysis also identified areas of unsuitable habitat with low restoration potential that could be targeted for oil and gas exploration, in lieu of occupied, high-quality habitats. Used in combination with GIS analysis and current LPCH population data, the habitat map represents a powerful conservation and management tool. PMID:17144922

A systemic ecological risk assessment based on spatial distribution and source apportionment in the abandoned lead acid battery plant zone, China.

PubMed

Zhang, Yimei; Li, Shuai; Chen, Zhuang; Wang, Fei; Chen, Jie; Wang, Liqun

2018-07-15

In China, potential heavy metal hazard around abandoned lead-acid battery plant (ALBP) area has been a great concern but without detailed report. The distribution and sources of heavy metals in soils and so by risk assessment associated with ALBP are conducted in this contribution, based on geographies and statistics. Pb and Zn are quantitively identified to be still emitted from ALBP soil, and Cd as well As are from agricultural activity. We investigate vertical metal distribution, and fortunately find that metals migrate within limit of 40 cm below topsoil, which is higher than groundwater table. The visualized stable depths are Zn 40 cm, Pb, As 20 cm, and Cd 40 cm. The mapped pollution load index (PLI) suggests a high pollution level exists in ALBP soil. The estimation of potential ecological risk index (PERI) indicates a light ecological risk in studied area, while As and Cd mainly from agricultural activity possess 54% of total E ri . Health risk index (THI) is 0.178 for children, indicating non-cancer risks may be ignored in observed area. Though calculated risk is temporarily affordable, soil remediation and reduction of agricultural chemical reagents are recommended for preventing potential cumulative risk from further bioconcentration of heavy metals. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of climate change and renewable energy development on habitat of an endemic squirrel, Xerospermophilus mohavensis, in the Mojave Desert, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Richard D.; Esque, Todd C.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Dilts, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

Predicting changes in species distributions under a changing climate is becoming widespread with the use of species distribution models (SDMs). The resulting predictions of future potential habitat can be cast in light of planned land use changes, such as urban expansion and energy development to identify areas with potential conflict. However, SDMs rarely incorporate an understanding of dispersal capacity, and therefore assume unlimited dispersal in potential range shifts under uncertain climate futures. We use SDMs to predict future distributions of the Mojave ground squirrel, Xerospermophilus mohavensis Merriam, and incorporate partial dispersal models informed by field data on juvenile dispersal to assess projected impact of climate change and energy development on future distributions of X. mohavensis. Our models predict loss of extant habitat, but also concurrent gains of new habitat under two scenarios of future climate change. Under the B1 emissions scenario- a storyline describing a convergent world with emphasis on curbing greenhouse gas emissions- our models predicted losses of up to 64% of extant habitat by 2080, while under the increased greenhouse gas emissions of the A2 scenario, we suggest losses of 56%. New potential habitat may become available to X. mohavensis, thereby offsetting as much as 6330 km2 (50%) of the current habitat lost. Habitat lost due to planned energy development was marginal compared to habitat lost from changing climates, but disproportionately affected current habitat. Future areas of overlap in potential habitat between the two climate change scenarios are identified and discussed in context of proposed energy development.

Using geographic distribution of well-screen depths and hydrogeologic conditions to identify areas of concern for contaminant migration through inactive supply wells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gailey, Robert M.

2018-02-01

Contaminant migration through inactive supply wells can negatively affect groundwater quality and the combined effects from groups of such wells may cause greater impacts. Because the number of wells in many basins is often large and the geographic areas involved can be vast, approaches are needed to estimate potential impacts and focus limited resources for investigation and corrective measures on the most important areas. One possibility is to evaluate the geographic distribution of well-screen depths relative to hydrogeologic conditions and assess where contaminant migration through wells may be impacting groundwater quality. This approach is demonstrated for a geographically extensive area in the southern Central Valley of California, USA. The conditions that lead to wells acting as conduits for contaminant migration are evaluated and areas where the problem likely occurs are identified. Although only a small fraction of all wells appear to act as conduits, potential impacts may be significant considering needs to control nonpoint-source pollution and improve drinking water quality for rural residents. Addressing a limited number of areas where contaminant migration rates are expected to be high may cost-effectively accomplish the most beneficial groundwater quality protection and improvement. While this work focuses on a specific region, the results indicate that impacts from groups of wells may occur in other areas with similar conditions. Analyses similar to that demonstrated here may guide efficient investigation and corrective action in such areas with benefits occurring for groundwater quality. Potential benefits may justify expenditures to develop the necessary data for performing the analyses.

Modeling Habitat of the Desert Tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) in the Mojave and Parts of the Sonoran Deserts of California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nussear, Kenneth E.; Esque, Todd C.; Inman, Richard D.; Gass, Leila; Thomas, Kathryn A.; Wallace, Cynthia S.A.; Blainey, Joan B.; Miller, David M.; Webb, Robert H.

2009-01-01

Habitat modeling is an important tool used to simulate the potential distribution of a species for a variety of basic and applied questions. The desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) is a federally listed threatened species in the Mojave Desert and parts of the Sonoran Desert of California, Nevada, Utah, and Arizona. Land managers in this region require reliable information about the potential distribution of desert tortoise habitat to plan conservation efforts, guide monitoring activities, monitor changes in the amount and quality of habitat available, minimize and mitigate disturbances, and ultimately to assess the status of the tortoise and its habitat toward recovery of the species. By applying information from the literature and our knowledge or assumptions of environmental variables that could potentially explain variability in the quality of desert tortoise habitat, we developed a quantitative habitat model for the desert tortoise using an extensive set of field-collected presence data. Sixteen environmental data layers were converted into a grid covering the study area and merged with the desert tortoise presence data that we gathered for input into the Maxent habitat-modeling algorithm. This model provides output of the statistical probability of habitat potential that can be used to map potential areas of desert tortoise habitat. This type of analysis, while robust in its predictions of habitat, does not account for anthropogenic changes that may have altered habitat with relatively high potential into areas with lower potential.

[Ecological suitability regionalization for Gastrodia elata in Zhaotong based on Maxent and ArcGIS].

PubMed

Shi, Zi-Wei; Ma, Cong-Ji; Kang, Chuan-Zhi; Wang, Li; Zhang, Zhi-Hui; Chen, Jun-Fei; Zhang, Xiao-Bo; Liu, Da-Hui

2016-09-01

In this paper, the potential distribution information and ecological suitability regionalization for Gastrodia elata in Zhaotong were studied based on the climate, terrain, soil and vegetation factors analysis by Maxent and ArcGIS. The results showed that the highly potential distribution (suitability index>0.6) mainly located in Zhaotong, Yunnan province（Zhenxiong,Yiliang and Daguan county, with an area of 2 872 km²）, and Bijie, Guizhou province （Hezhang,Bijie,Weining county, 1 251 km²）. The AUC of ROC curve was above 0.99, indicating that the predictive results with the Maxent model were highly precise. The main ecological factors determining the potential distribution were the altitude, average rainfall in November, average rainfall in October, vegetation types, average rainfall in March, average rainfall in April,soil types,isothermal characteristic and average rainfall in June. The environmental variables in the highly potential areas were determined as altitude around 1 450-2 200 m,annual average temperature around 18.0-20.4 ℃,annual average precipitation around 900 mm,yellow soil or yellow brown soil,and acid sandy loam or slightly acidic sandy loam.The results will provide valuable references for plantation regionalization and the siting for imitation wild planting of G. elata in Zhaotong. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Application of the Basin Characterization Model to Estimate In-Place Recharge and Runoff Potential in the Basin and Range Carbonate-Rock Aquifer System, White Pine County, Nevada, and Adjacent Areas in Nevada and Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.

2007-01-01

A regional-scale water-balance model was used to estimate recharge and runoff potential and support U.S. Geological Survey efforts to develop a better understanding of water availability for the Basin and Range carbonate-rock aquifer system (BARCAS) study in White Pine County, Nevada, and adjacent areas in Nevada and Utah. The water-balance model, or Basin Characterization Model (BCM), was used to estimate regional ground-water recharge for the 13 hydrographic areas in the study area. The BCM calculates recharge by using a distributed-parameter, water-balance method and monthly climatic boundary conditions. The BCM requires geographic information system coverages of soil, geology, and topographic information with monthly time-varying climatic conditions of air temperature and precipitation. Potential evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, and snowmelt are distributed spatially with process models. When combined with surface properties of soil-water storage and saturated hydraulic conductivity of bedrock and alluvium, the potential water available for in-place recharge and runoff is calculated using monthly time steps using a grid scale of 866 feet (270 meters). The BCM was used with monthly climatic inputs from 1970 to 2004, and results were averaged to provide an estimate of the average annual recharge for the BARCAS study area. The model estimates 526,000 acre-feet of potential in-place recharge and approximately 398,000 acre-feet of potential runoff. Assuming 15 percent of the runoff becomes recharge, the model estimates average annual ground-water recharge for the BARCAS area of about 586,000 acre-feet. When precipitation is extrapolated to the long-term climatic record (1895-2006), average annual recharge is estimated to be 530,000 acre-feet, or about 9 percent less than the recharge estimated for 1970-2004.

Floating macro-litter along the Mediterranean French coast: Composition, density, distribution and overlap with cetacean range.

PubMed

Di-Méglio, Nathalie; Campana, Ilaria

2017-05-15

This study investigated the composition, density and distribution of floating macro-litter along the Liguro-Provençal basin with respect to cetaceans presence. Survey transects were performed in summer between 2006 and 2015 from sailing vessels with simultaneous cetaceans observations. During 5171km travelled, 1993 floating items were recorded, widespread in the whole study area. Plastics was the predominant category, with bags/packaging always representing >45% of total items. Overall mean density (14.98 items/km 2 ) was stable with significant increase reported only in 2010-2011; monthly analysis showed lower litter densities in July-September, suggesting possible seasonal patterns. Kernel density estimation for plastics revealed ubiquitous distribution rather than high accumulation areas, mainly due to the circulation dynamics of this area. The presence range of cetaceans (259 sightings, 6 species) corresponded by ~50% with plastic distribution, indicating high potential of interaction, especially in the eastern part of the area, but effective risks for marine species might be underrepresented. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Rainfall-induced Landslide Potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Y. R.; Tsai, K. J.; Chen, J. W.; Chue, Y. S.; Lu, Y. C.; Lin, C. W.

2016-12-01

Due to Taiwan's steep terrain, rainfall-induced landslides often occur and lead to human causalities and properties loss. Taiwan's government has invested huge reconstruction funds to the affected areas. However, after rehabilitation they still face the risk of secondary sediment disasters. Therefore, this study assessed rainfall-induced landslide potential and spatial distribution in some watersheds of Southern Taiwan to configure reasonable assessment process and methods for landslide potential. This study focused on the multi-year multi-phase heavy rainfall events after 2009 Typhoon Morakot and applied the analysis techniques for the classification of satellite images of research region before and after rainfall to obtain surface information and hazard log data. GIS and DEM were employed to obtain the ridge and water system and to explore characteristics of landslide distribution. A multivariate hazards evaluation method was applied to quantitatively analyze the weights of various hazard factors. Furthermore, the interaction between rainfall characteristic, slope disturbance and landslide mechanism was analyzed. The results of image classification show that the values of coefficient of agreement are at medium-high level. The agreement of landslide potential map is at around 80% level compared with historical disaster sites. The relations between landslide potential level, slope disturbance degree, and the ratio of number and area of landslide increment corresponding heavy rainfall events are positive. The ratio of landslide occurrence is proportional to the value of instability index. Moreover, for each rainfall event, the number and scale of secondary landslide sites are much more than those of new landslide sites. The greater the slope land disturbance, the more likely it is that the scale of secondary landslide become greater. The spatial distribution of landslide depends on the interaction of rainfall patterns, slope, and elevation of the research area.

How climate change might influence the potential distribution of weed, bushmint (Hyptis suaveolens)?

PubMed

Padalia, Hitendra; Srivastava, Vivek; Kushwaha, S P S

2015-04-01

Invasive species and climate change are considered as the most serious global environmental threats. In this study, we investigated the influence of projected global climate change on the potential distribution of one of the world's most successful invader weed, bushmint (Hyptis suaveolens (L.) Poit.). We used spatial data on 20 environmental variables at a grid resolution of 5 km, and 564 presence records of bushmint from its native and introduced range. The climatic profiles of the native and invaded sites were analyzed in a multi-variate space in order to examine the differences in the position of climatic niches. Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model was used to predict the potential distribution of bushmint using presence records from entire range (invaded and native) along with 14 eco-physiologically relevant predictor variables. Subsequently, the trained MaxEnt model was fed with Hadley Centre Coupled Model (HadCM3) climate projections to predict potential distribution of bushmint by the year 2050 under A2a and B2a emission scenarios. MaxEnt predictions were very accurate with an Area Under Curve (AUC) value of 0.95. The results of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) indicated that climatic niche of bushmint on the invaded sites is not entirely similar to its climatic niche in the native range. A vast area spread between 34 ° 02' north and 28 ° 18' south latitudes in tropics was predicted climatically suitable for bushmint. West and middle Africa, tropical southeast Asia, and northern Australia were predicted at high invasion risk. Study indicates enlargement, retreat, or shift across bushmint's invasion range under the influence of climate change. Globally, bushmint's potential distribution might shrink in future with more shrinkage for A2a scenario than B2a. The study outcome has immense potential for undertaking effective preventive/control measures and long-term management strategies for regions/countries, which are at higher risk of bushmint's invasion.

Summary of northern Atlantic coastal plain hydrology and its relation to disposal of high-level radioactive waste in buried crystalline rock; a preliminary appraisal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lloyd, O.B.; Larson, J.D.; Davis, R.W.

1985-01-01

Interpretation of available hydrologic data suggests that some areas beneath the Coastal Plain in the States of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, North Carolina, and Virginia might have some potential for the disposal of nuclear waste in crystalline rock that is buried beneath the Coastal Plain sediments. The areas of major interest occur where the top of the basement rock lies between 1,000 and 4,000 feet below sea level, the aquifer(s) immediately above the basement rock are saturated with saline water, confining material overlies the saline water bearing aquifer(s), and groundwater flow in the saline water aquifer(s) can be established. Preliminary data on (1) the distribution and thickness of the lowermost aquifers and confining beds, (2) the distribution of hydraulic conductivity in the lowermost aquifers, (3) estimated hydraulic heads and inferred direction of lateral groundwater flow for 1980, and (4) the distribution of saline water and brine, indicate eastern parts of the study area relatively best meet most of the criteria proposed for sediments that would overlie any potential buried crystalline-rock disposal site.

Genetic analysis of potential postglacial watershed crossings in Central Europe by the bullhead (Cottus gobio L.).

PubMed

Vonlanthen, P; Excoffier, L; Bittner, D; Persat, H; Neuenschwander, S; Largiadèr, C R

2007-11-01

Natural colonizations across watersheds have been frequently proposed to explain the present distributions of many freshwater fish species. However, detailed studies of such potential watershed crossings are still missing. Here, we investigated potential postglacial watershed crossings of the widely distributed European bullhead (Cottus gobio L.) in two different areas along the Rhine-Rhône watershed using detailed genetic analysis. The main advantage of studying bullheads vs. other freshwater fish species is that their distribution has been lightly influenced by human activities and as such, interpretations of colonization history are not confounded by artificial transplantations. The genetic analyses of eight microsatellite loci revealed strong genetic similarities between populations of both sides of the Rhine-Rhône watershed in the Lake Geneva area, giving strong evidence for a natural watershed crossing of bullheads from the upper Rhine drainage into the Rhône drainage in the Lake Geneva area likely facilitated by the retreat of the glaciers after the last glacial maximum some 20,000 years ago. Populations from the Lake Geneva basin were genetically more similar to populations from across the watershed in the upper Rhine drainage than to populations further downstream in the lower Rhône. In contrast, populations from Belfort, an area, which was not covered by ice during the last glacial maximum, showed strong genetic differentiation between populations of the upper Rhine and Rhône drainages. Based on our results on the bullhead, we propose that glacial retreat may have eased the dispersal of numerous European freshwater fish species across several geological boundaries.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

PubMed

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

2015-01-01

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios

PubMed Central

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

2015-01-01

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981–2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011–2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas. PMID:26496438

Local multiplicity adjustment for the spatial scan statistic using the Gumbel distribution.

PubMed

Gangnon, Ronald E

2012-03-01

The spatial scan statistic is an important and widely used tool for cluster detection. It is based on the simultaneous evaluation of the statistical significance of the maximum likelihood ratio test statistic over a large collection of potential clusters. In most cluster detection problems, there is variation in the extent of local multiplicity across the study region. For example, using a fixed maximum geographic radius for clusters, urban areas typically have many overlapping potential clusters, whereas rural areas have relatively few. The spatial scan statistic does not account for local multiplicity variation. We describe a previously proposed local multiplicity adjustment based on a nested Bonferroni correction and propose a novel adjustment based on a Gumbel distribution approximation to the distribution of a local scan statistic. We compare the performance of all three statistics in terms of power and a novel unbiased cluster detection criterion. These methods are then applied to the well-known New York leukemia dataset and a Wisconsin breast cancer incidence dataset. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Local multiplicity adjustment for the spatial scan statistic using the Gumbel distribution

PubMed Central

Gangnon, Ronald E.

2011-01-01

Summary The spatial scan statistic is an important and widely used tool for cluster detection. It is based on the simultaneous evaluation of the statistical significance of the maximum likelihood ratio test statistic over a large collection of potential clusters. In most cluster detection problems, there is variation in the extent of local multiplicity across the study region. For example, using a fixed maximum geographic radius for clusters, urban areas typically have many overlapping potential clusters, while rural areas have relatively few. The spatial scan statistic does not account for local multiplicity variation. We describe a previously proposed local multiplicity adjustment based on a nested Bonferroni correction and propose a novel adjustment based on a Gumbel distribution approximation to the distribution of a local scan statistic. We compare the performance of all three statistics in terms of power and a novel unbiased cluster detection criterion. These methods are then applied to the well-known New York leukemia dataset and a Wisconsin breast cancer incidence dataset. PMID:21762118

Spatial and temporal changes in Lutzomyia longipalpis abundance, a Leishmania infantum vector in an urban area in northeastern Argentina

PubMed Central

Fernández, María Soledad; Santini, María Soledad; Cavia, Regino; Sandoval, Adolfo Enrique; Pérez, Adriana Alicia; Acardi, Soraya; Salomón, Oscar Daniel

2013-01-01

This study aimed to analyse changes in the spatial distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis in Posadas, an urban area located in northeastern Argentina. Data were obtained during the summer of 2007 and 2009 through two entomological surveys of peridomiciles distributed around the city. The abundance distribution pattern for 2009 was computed and compared with the previous pattern obtained in 2007, when the first human visceral leishmaniasis cases were reported in the city. Vector abundance was also examined in relation to micro and macrohabitat characteristics. In 2007 and 2009, Lu. longipalpis was distributed among 41.5% and 31% of the households in the study area, respectively. In both years, the abundance rates at most of the trapping sites were below 30 Lu. longipalpis per trap per night; however, for areas exhibiting 30-60 Lu. longipalpis and more than 60 Lu. longipalpis, the areas increased in both size and number from 2007-2009. Lu. longipalpis was more abundant in areas with a higher tree and bush cover (a macrohabitat characteristic) and in peridomiciles with accumulated unused material (a microhabitat characteristic). These results will help to prioritise and focus control efforts by defining which peridomiciles display a potentially high abundance of Lu. longipalpis. PMID:24271040

Parks and people: An environmental justice inquiry in Baltimore, Maryland

Treesearch

Christopher G. Boone; Geoffrey L. Buckley; J. Morgan Grove; Chona Sister

2009-01-01

This article examines the distribution of parks in Baltimore, Maryland, as an environmental justice issue. In addition to established methods for measuring distribution of and access to parks, we employ a novel park service area approach that uses Thiessen polygons and dasymetric reapportioning of census data to measure potential park congestion as an equity outcome...

Do container volume, site preparation, and field fertilization affect restoration potential of Wyoming big sagebrush?

Treesearch

Kayla R. Herriman; Anthony S. Davis; Kent G. Apostol; Olga. A. Kildisheva; Amy L. Ross-Davis; Kas Dumroese

2016-01-01

Land management practices, invasive species expansion, and changes in the fire regime greatly impact the distribution of native plants in natural areas. Wyoming big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata ssp. wyomingensis), a keystone species in the Great Basin, has seen a 50% reduction in its distribution. For many dryland species, reestablishment efforts have...

Cd pollution and ecological risk assessment for mining activity zone in Karst Area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, B.; He, J. L.; Wen, X. M.; Tan, H.

2017-08-01

The monitored soil samples were collected from farmland in the area with mining activity in Karst area in Liupanshui. In this article, moss bag technology and TSP were used simultaneously for Cd transportation and deposition in the study area. Geostatistics and GIS were then used for the spatial distribution of Cd in the soil. Afterwards, Cd pollution to the soil environment and human health was studied by using the geo-accumulation index and potential ecological risk index methods. The results indicated that atmospheric deposition is the major route of Cd pollution. A moderate to strong pollution of Cd in the area and the degree of potential ecological risk was in a high level in the study area. Furthermore, Cd pollution in Liupanshui may originate from mining activity and atmospheric deposition.

Simulated big sagebrush regeneration supports predicted changes at the trailing and leading edges of distribution shifts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Taylor, Kyle A.; Pennington, Victoria E.; Nelson, Kellen N.; Martin, Trace E.; Rottler, Caitlin M.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

2015-01-01

Many semi-arid plant communities in western North America are dominated by big sagebrush. These ecosystems are being reduced in extent and quality due to economic development, invasive species, and climate change. These pervasive modifications have generated concern about the long-term viability of sagebrush habitat and sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (notably greater sage-grouse), highlighting the need for better understanding of the future big sagebrush distribution, particularly at the species' range margins. These leading and trailing edges of potential climate-driven sagebrush distribution shifts are likely to be areas most sensitive to climate change. We used a process-based regeneration model for big sagebrush, which simulates potential germination and seedling survival in response to climatic and edaphic conditions and tested expectations about current and future regeneration responses at trailing and leading edges that were previously identified using traditional species distribution models. Our results confirmed expectations of increased probability of regeneration at the leading edge and decreased probability of regeneration at the trailing edge below current levels. Our simulations indicated that soil water dynamics at the leading edge became more similar to the typical seasonal ecohydrological conditions observed within the current range of big sagebrush ecosystems. At the trailing edge, an increased winter and spring dryness represented a departure from conditions typically supportive of big sagebrush. Our results highlighted that minimum and maximum daily temperatures as well as soil water recharge and summer dry periods are important constraints for big sagebrush regeneration. Overall, our results confirmed previous predictions, i.e., we see consistent changes in areas identified as trailing and leading edges; however, we also identified potential local refugia within the trailing edge, mostly at sites at higher elevation. Decreasing regeneration probability at the trailing edge underscores the Schlaepfer et al. Future regeneration potential of big sagebrush potential futility of efforts to preserve and/or restore big sagebrush in these areas. Conversely, increasing regeneration probability at the leading edge suggest a growing potential for conflicts in management goals between maintaining existing grasslands by preventing sagebrush expansion versus accepting a shift in plant community composition to sagebrush dominance.

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in soils from urban to rural areas in Nanjing: Concentration, source, spatial distribution, and potential human health risk.

PubMed

Wang, Chunhui; Wu, Shaohua; Zhou, Sheng Lu; Wang, Hui; Li, Baojie; Chen, Hao; Yu, Yanna; Shi, Yaxing

2015-09-15

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have become a major type of pollutant in urban areas and their degree of pollution and characteristics of spatial distribution differ between various regions. We conducted a comprehensive study about the concentration, source, spatial distribution, and health risk of 16 PAHs from urban to rural soils in Nanjing. The mean total concentrations of 16 PAHs (∑16PAHs) were 3330 ng g(-1) for urban soils, 1680 ng g(-1) for suburban soils, and 1060 ng g(-1) for rural soils. Five sources in urban, suburban, and rural areas of Nanjing were identified by positive matrix factorization. Their relative contributions of sources to the total soil PAH burden in descending order was coal combustion, vehicle emissions, biomass burning, coke tar, and oil in urban areas; in suburban areas the main sources of soil PAHs were gasoline engine and diesel engine, whereas in rural areas the main sources were creosote and biomass burning. The spatial distribution of soil PAH concentrations shows that old urban districts and commercial centers were the most contaminated of all areas in Nanjing. The distribution pattern of heavier PAHs was in accordance with ∑16PAHs, whereas lighter PAHs show some special characteristics. Health risk assessment based on toxic equivalency factors of benzo[a]pyrene indicated a low concentration of PAHs in most areas in Nanjing, but some sensitive sites should draw considerable attention. We conclude that urbanization has accelerated the accumulation of soil PAHs and increased the environmental risk for urban residents. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

The influence of urban heat islands and socioeconomic factors on the spatial distribution of Aedes aegypti larval habitats.

PubMed

De Azevedo, Thiago S; Bourke, Brian Patrick; Piovezan, Rafael; Sallum, Maria Anice M

2018-05-08

We addressed the potential associations among the temporal and spatial distribution of larval habitats of Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti, the presence of urban heat islands and socioeconomic factors. Data on larval habitats were collected in Santa Bárbara d'Oeste, São Paulo, Brazil, from 2004 to 2006, and spatial and temporal variations were analysed using a wavelet-based approach. We quantified urban heat islands by calculating surface temperatures using the results of wavelet analyses and grey level transformation from Thematic Mapper images (Landsat 5). Ae. aegypti larval habitats were geo-referenced corresponding to the wavelet analyses to test the potential association between geographical distribution of habitats and surface temperature. In an inhomogeneous spatial point process, we estimated the frequency of occurrence of larval habitats in relation to temperature. The São Paulo State Social Vulnerability Index in the municipality of Santa Barbára d'Oeste was used to test the potential association between presence of larval habitats and social vulnerability. We found abundant Ae. aegypti larval habitats in areas of higher surface temperature and social vulnerability and fewer larval habitats in areas with lower surface temperature and social vulnerability.

Ecological niche modelling of potential West Nile virus vector mosquito species and their geographical association with equine epizootics in Italy.

PubMed

Mughini-Gras, Lapo; Mulatti, Paolo; Severini, Francesco; Boccolini, Daniela; Romi, Roberto; Bongiorno, Gioia; Khoury, Cristina; Bianchi, Riccardo; Montarsi, Fabrizio; Patregnani, Tommaso; Bonfanti, Lebana; Rezza, Giovanni; Capelli, Gioia; Busani, Luca

2014-01-01

In Italy, West Nile virus (WNV) equine outbreaks have occurred annually since 2008. Characterizing WNV vector habitat requirements allows for the identification of areas at risk of viral amplification and transmission. Maxent-based ecological niche models were developed using literature records of 13 potential WNV Italian vector mosquito species to predict their habitat suitability range and to investigate possible geographical associations with WNV equine outbreak occurrence in Italy from 2008 to 2010. The contribution of different environmental variables to the niche models was also assessed. Suitable habitats for Culex pipiens, Aedes albopictus, and Anopheles maculipennis were widely distributed; Culex modestus, Ochlerotatus geniculatus, Ochlerotatus caspius, Coquillettidia richiardii, Aedes vexans, and Anopheles plumbeus were concentrated in north-central Italy; Aedes cinereus, Culex theileri, Ochlerotatus dorsalis, and Culiseta longiareolata were restricted to coastal/southern areas. Elevation, temperature, and precipitation variables showed the highest predictive power. Host population and landscape variables provided minor contributions. WNV equine outbreaks had a significantly higher probability to occur in habitats suitable for Cx. modestus and Cx. pipiens, providing circumstantial evidence that the potential distribution of these two species coincides geographically with the observed distribution of the disease in equines.

Determining the distribution loss of brown eared-pheasant (Crossoptilon mantchuricum) using historical data and potential distribution estimates

PubMed Central

Song, Zitan

2016-01-01

We analyzed the synchronous relationship between forest cover and species distribution to explain the contraction in the distribution range of the brown eared-pheasant (Crossoptilon mantchuricum) in China. Historical resources can provide effective records for reconstructing long-term distribution dynamics. The brown eared-pheasant’s historical distribution from 25 to 1947 CE, which included the three provinces of Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Hebei based on this species’ habitat selection criteria, the history of the forests, ancient climate change records, and fossil data. The current species distribution covers Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Hebei provinces, as well as Beijing city, while Shanxi remains the center of the distribution area. MaxEnt model indicated that the suitable conditions of the brown eared-pheasant had retreated to the western regions of Shanxi and that the historical distribution area had reduced synchronously with the disappearance of local forest cover in Shanxi. We built a correlative relationship between the presence/absence of brown eared-pheasants and forest coverage and found that forest coverage in the north, northeast, central, and southeast areas of the Shanxi province were all less than 10% in 1911. Wild brown eared-pheasants are stable in the Luliang Mountains, where forest coverage reached 13.2% in 2000. Consequently, we concluded that the distribution of this species is primarily determined by vegetation conditions and that forest cover was the most significant determining factor. PMID:27781161

Future distribution of tundra refugia in northern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, Andrew G.; Waltari, Eric; Payer, David C.; Cook, Joseph A.; Talbot, Sandra L.

2013-01-01

Climate change in the Arctic is a growing concern for natural resource conservation and management as a result of accelerated warming and associated shifts in the distribution and abundance of northern species. We introduce a predictive framework for assessing the future extent of Arctic tundra and boreal biomes in northern Alaska. We use geo-referenced museum specimens to predict the velocity of distributional change into the next century and compare predicted tundra refugial areas with current land-use. The reliability of predicted distributions, including differences between fundamental and realized niches, for two groups of species is strengthened by fossils and genetic signatures of demographic shifts. Evolutionary responses to environmental change through the late Quaternary are generally consistent with past distribution models. Predicted future refugia overlap managed areas and indicate potential hotspots for tundra diversity. To effectively assess future refugia, variable responses among closely related species to climate change warrants careful consideration of both evolutionary and ecological histories.

Potential distribution of mosquito vector species in a primary malaria endemic region of Colombia

PubMed Central

Altamiranda-Saavedra, Mariano; Arboleda, Sair; Parra, Juan L.; Peterson, A. Townsend

2017-01-01

Rapid transformation of natural ecosystems changes ecological conditions for important human disease vector species; therefore, an essential task is to identify and understand the variables that shape distributions of these species to optimize efforts toward control and mitigation. Ecological niche modeling was used to estimate the potential distribution and to assess hypotheses of niche similarity among the three main malaria vector species in northern Colombia: Anopheles nuneztovari, An. albimanus, and An. darlingi. Georeferenced point collection data and remotely sensed, fine-resolution satellite imagery were integrated across the Urabá –Bajo Cauca–Alto Sinú malaria endemic area using a maximum entropy algorithm. Results showed that An. nuneztovari has the widest geographic distribution, occupying almost the entire study region; this niche breadth is probably related to the ability of this species to colonize both, natural and disturbed environments. The model for An. darlingi showed that most suitable localities for this species in Bajo Cauca were along the Cauca and Nechí river. The riparian ecosystems in this region and the potential for rapid adaptation by this species to novel environments, may favor the establishment of populations of this species. Apparently, the three main Colombian Anopheles vector species in this endemic area do not occupy environments either with high seasonality, or with low seasonality and high NDVI values. Estimated overlap in geographic space between An. nuneztovari and An. albimanus indicated broad spatial and environmental similarity between these species. An. nuneztovari has a broader niche and potential distribution. Dispersal ability of these species and their ability to occupy diverse environmental situations may facilitate sympatry across many environmental and geographic contexts. These model results may be useful for the design and implementation of malaria species-specific vector control interventions optimized for this important malaria region. PMID:28594942

Ecological Niche Modeling for Filoviruses: A Risk Map for Ebola and Marburg Virus Disease Outbreaks in Uganda.

PubMed

Nyakarahuka, Luke; Ayebare, Samuel; Mosomtai, Gladys; Kankya, Clovice; Lutwama, Julius; Mwiine, Frank Norbert; Skjerve, Eystein

2017-09-05

Uganda has reported eight outbreaks caused by filoviruses between 2000 to 2016, more than any other country in the world. We used species distribution modeling to predict where filovirus outbreaks are likely to occur in Uganda to help in epidemic preparedness and surveillance. The MaxEnt software, a machine learning modeling approach that uses presence-only data was used to establish filovirus - environmental relationships. Presence-only data for filovirus outbreaks were collected from the field and online sources. Environmental covariates from Africlim that have been downscaled to a nominal resolution of 1km x 1km were used. The final model gave the relative probability of the presence of filoviruses in the study area obtained from an average of 100 bootstrap runs. Model evaluation was carried out using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) plots. Maps were created using ArcGIS 10.3 mapping software. We showed that bats as potential reservoirs of filoviruses are distributed all over Uganda. Potential outbreak areas for Ebola and Marburg virus disease were predicted in West, Southwest and Central parts of Uganda, which corresponds to bat distribution and previous filovirus outbreaks areas. Additionally, the models predicted the Eastern Uganda region and other areas that have not reported outbreaks before to be potential outbreak hotspots. Rainfall variables were the most important in influencing model prediction compared to temperature variables. Despite the limitations in the prediction model due to lack of adequate sample records for outbreaks, especially for the Marburg cases, the models provided risk maps to the Uganda surveillance system on filovirus outbreaks. The risk maps will aid in identifying areas to focus the filovirus surveillance for early detection and responses hence curtailing a pandemic. The results from this study also confirm previous findings that suggest that filoviruses are mainly limited by the amount of rainfall received in an area.

Ecological Niche Modeling for Filoviruses: A Risk Map for Ebola and Marburg Virus Disease Outbreaks in Uganda

PubMed Central

Nyakarahuka, Luke; Ayebare, Samuel; Mosomtai, Gladys; Kankya, Clovice; Lutwama, Julius; Mwiine, Frank Norbert; Skjerve, Eystein

2017-01-01

Introduction: Uganda has reported eight outbreaks caused by filoviruses between 2000 to 2016, more than any other country in the world. We used species distribution modeling to predict where filovirus outbreaks are likely to occur in Uganda to help in epidemic preparedness and surveillance. Methods: The MaxEnt software, a machine learning modeling approach that uses presence-only data was used to establish filovirus – environmental relationships. Presence-only data for filovirus outbreaks were collected from the field and online sources. Environmental covariates from Africlim that have been downscaled to a nominal resolution of 1km x 1km were used. The final model gave the relative probability of the presence of filoviruses in the study area obtained from an average of 100 bootstrap runs. Model evaluation was carried out using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) plots. Maps were created using ArcGIS 10.3 mapping software. Results: We showed that bats as potential reservoirs of filoviruses are distributed all over Uganda. Potential outbreak areas for Ebola and Marburg virus disease were predicted in West, Southwest and Central parts of Uganda, which corresponds to bat distribution and previous filovirus outbreaks areas. Additionally, the models predicted the Eastern Uganda region and other areas that have not reported outbreaks before to be potential outbreak hotspots. Rainfall variables were the most important in influencing model prediction compared to temperature variables. Conclusions: Despite the limitations in the prediction model due to lack of adequate sample records for outbreaks, especially for the Marburg cases, the models provided risk maps to the Uganda surveillance system on filovirus outbreaks. The risk maps will aid in identifying areas to focus the filovirus surveillance for early detection and responses hence curtailing a pandemic. The results from this study also confirm previous findings that suggest that filoviruses are mainly limited by the amount of rainfall received in an area. PMID:29034123

Distribution of selected healthcare resources for influenza pandemic response in Cambodia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Human influenza infection poses a serious public health threat in Cambodia, a country at risk for the emergence and spread of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential. Prior pandemics demonstrated the adverse impact of influenza on poor communities in developing countries. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution can inform decisions regarding resource mobilization and investment for pandemic mitigation. Methods A health facility survey performed across Cambodia obtained data on availability of healthcare resources important for pandemic influenza response. Focusing on five key resources considered most necessary for treating severe influenza (inpatient beds, doctors, nurses, oseltamivir, and ventilators), resource distributions were analyzed at the Operational District (OD) and Province levels, refining data analysis from earlier studies. Resources were stratified by respondent type (hospital vs. District Health Office [DHO]). A summary index of distribution inequality was calculated using the Gini coefficient. Indices for local spatial autocorrelation were measured at the OD level using geographical information system (GIS) analysis. Finally, a potential link between socioeconomic status and resource distribution was explored by mapping resource densities against poverty rates. Results Gini coefficient calculation revealed variable inequality in distribution of the five key resources at the Province and OD levels. A greater percentage of the population resides in areas of relative under-supply (28.5%) than over-supply (21.3%). Areas with more resources per capita showed significant clustering in central Cambodia while areas with fewer resources clustered in the northern and western provinces. Hospital-based inpatient beds, doctors, and nurses were most heavily concentrated in areas of the country with the lowest poverty rates; however, beds and nurses in Non-Hospital Medical Facilities (NHMF) showed increasing concentrations at higher levels of poverty. Conclusions There is considerable heterogeneity in healthcare resource distribution across Cambodia. Distribution mapping at the local level can inform policy decisions on where to stockpile resources in advance of and for reallocation in the event of a pandemic. These findings will be useful in determining future health resource investment, both for pandemic preparedness and for general health system strengthening, and provide a foundation for future analyses of equity in health services provision for pandemic mitigation planning in Cambodia. PMID:24090286

Distribution of selected healthcare resources for influenza pandemic response in Cambodia.

PubMed

Schwanke Khilji, Sara U; Rudge, James W; Drake, Tom; Chavez, Irwin; Borin, Khieu; Touch, Sok; Coker, Richard

2013-10-04

Human influenza infection poses a serious public health threat in Cambodia, a country at risk for the emergence and spread of novel influenza viruses with pandemic potential. Prior pandemics demonstrated the adverse impact of influenza on poor communities in developing countries. Investigation of healthcare resource distribution can inform decisions regarding resource mobilization and investment for pandemic mitigation. A health facility survey performed across Cambodia obtained data on availability of healthcare resources important for pandemic influenza response. Focusing on five key resources considered most necessary for treating severe influenza (inpatient beds, doctors, nurses, oseltamivir, and ventilators), resource distributions were analyzed at the Operational District (OD) and Province levels, refining data analysis from earlier studies. Resources were stratified by respondent type (hospital vs. District Health Office [DHO]). A summary index of distribution inequality was calculated using the Gini coefficient. Indices for local spatial autocorrelation were measured at the OD level using geographical information system (GIS) analysis. Finally, a potential link between socioeconomic status and resource distribution was explored by mapping resource densities against poverty rates. Gini coefficient calculation revealed variable inequality in distribution of the five key resources at the Province and OD levels. A greater percentage of the population resides in areas of relative under-supply (28.5%) than over-supply (21.3%). Areas with more resources per capita showed significant clustering in central Cambodia while areas with fewer resources clustered in the northern and western provinces. Hospital-based inpatient beds, doctors, and nurses were most heavily concentrated in areas of the country with the lowest poverty rates; however, beds and nurses in Non-Hospital Medical Facilities (NHMF) showed increasing concentrations at higher levels of poverty. There is considerable heterogeneity in healthcare resource distribution across Cambodia. Distribution mapping at the local level can inform policy decisions on where to stockpile resources in advance of and for reallocation in the event of a pandemic. These findings will be useful in determining future health resource investment, both for pandemic preparedness and for general health system strengthening, and provide a foundation for future analyses of equity in health services provision for pandemic mitigation planning in Cambodia.

Modeling the Distribution of Migratory Bird Stopovers to Inform Landscape-Scale Siting of Wind Development

PubMed Central

Pocewicz, Amy; Estes-Zumpf, Wendy A.; Andersen, Mark D.; Copeland, Holly E.; Keinath, Douglas A.; Griscom, Hannah R.

2013-01-01

Conservation of migratory birds requires understanding the distribution of and potential threats to their migratory habitats. However, although migratory birds are protected under international treaties, few maps have been available to represent migration at a landscape scale useful to target conservation efforts or inform the siting of wind energy developments that may affect migratory birds. To fill this gap, we developed models that predict where four groups of birds concentrate or stopover during their migration through the state of Wyoming, USA: raptors, wetland, riparian and sparse grassland birds. The models were based on existing literature and expert knowledge concerning bird migration behavior and ecology and validated using expert ratings and known occurrences. There was significant agreement between migratory occurrence data and migration models for all groups except raptors, and all models ranked well with experts. We measured the overlap between the migration concentration models and a predictive model of wind energy development to assess the potential exposure of migratory birds to wind development and illustrate the utility of migratory concentration models for landscape-scale planning. Wind development potential is high across 15% of Wyoming, and 73% of this high potential area intersects important migration concentration areas. From 5.2% to 18.8% of each group’s important migration areas was represented within this high wind potential area, with the highest exposures for sparse grassland birds and the lowest for riparian birds. Our approach could be replicated elsewhere to fill critical data gaps and better inform conservation priorities and landscape-scale planning for migratory birds. PMID:24098379

Does lake size matter? Combining morphology and process modeling to examine the contribution of lake classes to population-scale processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winslow, Luke A.; Read, Jordan S.; Hanson, Paul C.; Stanley, Emily H.

2014-01-01

With lake abundances in the thousands to millions, creating an intuitive understanding of the distribution of morphology and processes in lakes is challenging. To improve researchers’ understanding of large-scale lake processes, we developed a parsimonious mathematical model based on the Pareto distribution to describe the distribution of lake morphology (area, perimeter and volume). While debate continues over which mathematical representation best fits any one distribution of lake morphometric characteristics, we recognize the need for a simple, flexible model to advance understanding of how the interaction between morphometry and function dictates scaling across large populations of lakes. These models make clear the relative contribution of lakes to the total amount of lake surface area, volume, and perimeter. They also highlight the critical thresholds at which total perimeter, area and volume would be evenly distributed across lake size-classes have Pareto slopes of 0.63, 1 and 1.12, respectively. These models of morphology can be used in combination with models of process to create overarching “lake population” level models of process. To illustrate this potential, we combine the model of surface area distribution with a model of carbon mass accumulation rate. We found that even if smaller lakes contribute relatively less to total surface area than larger lakes, the increasing carbon accumulation rate with decreasing lake size is strong enough to bias the distribution of carbon mass accumulation towards smaller lakes. This analytical framework provides a relatively simple approach to upscaling morphology and process that is easily generalizable to other ecosystem processes.

A Multi-Scale Distribution Model for Non-Equilibrium Populations Suggests Resource Limitation in an Endangered Rodent

PubMed Central

Bean, William T.; Stafford, Robert; Butterfield, H. Scott; Brashares, Justin S.

2014-01-01

Species distributions are known to be limited by biotic and abiotic factors at multiple temporal and spatial scales. Species distribution models, however, frequently assume a population at equilibrium in both time and space. Studies of habitat selection have repeatedly shown the difficulty of estimating resource selection if the scale or extent of analysis is incorrect. Here, we present a multi-step approach to estimate the realized and potential distribution of the endangered giant kangaroo rat. First, we estimate the potential distribution by modeling suitability at a range-wide scale using static bioclimatic variables. We then examine annual changes in extent at a population-level. We define “available” habitat based on the total suitable potential distribution at the range-wide scale. Then, within the available habitat, model changes in population extent driven by multiple measures of resource availability. By modeling distributions for a population with robust estimates of population extent through time, and ecologically relevant predictor variables, we improved the predictive ability of SDMs, as well as revealed an unanticipated relationship between population extent and precipitation at multiple scales. At a range-wide scale, the best model indicated the giant kangaroo rat was limited to areas that received little to no precipitation in the summer months. In contrast, the best model for shorter time scales showed a positive relation with resource abundance, driven by precipitation, in the current and previous year. These results suggest that the distribution of the giant kangaroo rat was limited to the wettest parts of the drier areas within the study region. This multi-step approach reinforces the differing relationship species may have with environmental variables at different scales, provides a novel method for defining “available” habitat in habitat selection studies, and suggests a way to create distribution models at spatial and temporal scales relevant to theoretical and applied ecologists. PMID:25237807

A relational data-knowledge base system and its potential in developing a distributed data-knowledge system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rahimian, Eric N.; Graves, Sara J.

1988-01-01

A new approach used in constructing a rational data knowledge base system is described. The relational database is well suited for distribution due to its property of allowing data fragmentation and fragmentation transparency. An example is formulated of a simple relational data knowledge base which may be generalized for use in developing a relational distributed data knowledge base system. The efficiency and ease of application of such a data knowledge base management system is briefly discussed. Also discussed are the potentials of the developed model for sharing the data knowledge base as well as the possible areas of difficulty in implementing the relational data knowledge base management system.

Modelling the spatial distribution of the nuisance mosquito species Anopheles plumbeus (Diptera: Culicidae) in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Ibañez-Justicia, Adolfo; Cianci, Daniela

2015-05-01

Landscape modifications, urbanization or changes of use of rural-agricultural areas can create more favourable conditions for certain mosquito species and therefore indirectly cause nuisance problems for humans. This could potentially result in mosquito-borne disease outbreaks when the nuisance is caused by mosquito species that can transmit pathogens. Anopheles plumbeus is a nuisance mosquito species and a potential malaria vector. It is one of the most frequently observed species in the Netherlands. Information on the distribution of this species is essential for risk assessments. The purpose of the study was to investigate the potential spatial distribution of An. plumbeus in the Netherlands. Random forest models were used to link the occurrence and the abundance of An. plumbeus with environmental features and to produce distribution maps in the Netherlands. Mosquito data were collected using a cross-sectional study design in the Netherlands, from April to October 2010-2013. The environmental data were obtained from satellite imagery and weather stations. Statistical measures (accuracy for the occurrence model and mean squared error for the abundance model) were used to evaluate the models performance. The models were externally validated. The maps show that forested areas (centre of the Netherlands) and the east of the country were predicted as suitable for An. plumbeus. In particular high suitability and high abundance was predicted in the south-eastern provinces Limburg and North Brabant. Elevation, precipitation, day and night temperature and vegetation indices were important predictors for calculating the probability of occurrence for An. plumbeus. The probability of occurrence, vegetation indices and precipitation were important for predicting its abundance. The AUC value was 0.73 and the error in the validation was 0.29; the mean squared error value was 0.12. The areas identified by the model as suitable and with high abundance of An. plumbeus, are consistent with the areas from which nuisance was reported. Our results can be helpful in the assessment of vector-borne disease risk.

Bisphenol analogues in surface water and sediment from the shallow Chinese freshwater lakes: Occurrence, distribution, source apportionment, and ecological and human health risk.

PubMed

Yan, Zhengyu; Liu, Yanhua; Yan, Kun; Wu, Shengmin; Han, Zhihua; Guo, Ruixin; Chen, Meihong; Yang, Qiulian; Zhang, Shenghu; Chen, Jianqiu

2017-10-01

Compared to Bisphenol A (BPA), current knowledge on the spatial distribution, potential sources and environmental risk assessment of other bisphenol analogues (BPs) remains limited. The occurrence, distribution and sources of seven BPs were investigated in the surface water and sediment from Taihu Lake and Luoma Lake, which are the Chinese shallow freshwater lakes. Because there are many industries and living areas around Taihu Lake, the total concentrations of ∑BPs were much higher than that in Luoma Lake, which is away from the industry-intensive areas. For the two lakes, BPA was still the dominant BPs in both surface water and sediment, followed by BPF and BPS. The spatial distribution and principal component analysis showed that BPs in Luoma Lake was relatively homogeneous and the potential sources were relatively simple than that in Taihu Lake. The spatial distribution of BPs in sediment of Taihu Lake indicated that ∑BPs positively correlated with the TOC content. For both Taihu Lake and Luoma Lake, the risk assessment at the sampling sites showed that no high risk in surface water and sediment (RQ t  < 1.0, and EEQ t  < 1.0 ng E 2 /L). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Relative availability of natural prey versus livestock predicts landscape suitability for cheetahs Acinonyx jubatus in Botswana

PubMed Central

Winterbach, Christiaan W.; Boast, Lorraine K.; Klein, Rebecca; Somers, Michael J.

2015-01-01

Prey availability and human-carnivore conflict are strong determinants that govern the spatial distribution and abundance of large carnivore species and determine the suitability of areas for their conservation. For wide-ranging large carnivores such as cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus), additional conservation areas beyond protected area boundaries are crucial to effectively conserve them both inside and outside protected areas. Although cheetahs prefer preying on wild prey, they also cause conflict with people by predating on especially small livestock. We investigated whether the distribution of cheetahs’ preferred prey and small livestock biomass could be used to explore the potential suitability of agricultural areas in Botswana for the long-term persistence of its cheetah population. We found it gave a good point of departure for identifying priority areas for land management, the threat to connectivity between cheetah populations, and areas where the reduction and mitigation of human-cheetah conflict is critical. Our analysis showed the existence of a wide prey base for cheetahs across large parts of Botswana’s agricultural areas, which provide additional large areas with high conservation potential. Twenty percent of wild prey biomass appears to be the critical point to distinguish between high and low probable levels of human-cheetah conflict. We identified focal areas in the agricultural zones where restoring wild prey numbers in concurrence with effective human-cheetah conflict mitigation efforts are the most immediate conservation strategies needed to maintain Botswana’s still large and contiguous cheetah population. PMID:26213646

Relative availability of natural prey versus livestock predicts landscape suitability for cheetahs Acinonyx jubatus in Botswana.

PubMed

Winterbach, Hanlie E K; Winterbach, Christiaan W; Boast, Lorraine K; Klein, Rebecca; Somers, Michael J

2015-01-01

Prey availability and human-carnivore conflict are strong determinants that govern the spatial distribution and abundance of large carnivore species and determine the suitability of areas for their conservation. For wide-ranging large carnivores such as cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus), additional conservation areas beyond protected area boundaries are crucial to effectively conserve them both inside and outside protected areas. Although cheetahs prefer preying on wild prey, they also cause conflict with people by predating on especially small livestock. We investigated whether the distribution of cheetahs' preferred prey and small livestock biomass could be used to explore the potential suitability of agricultural areas in Botswana for the long-term persistence of its cheetah population. We found it gave a good point of departure for identifying priority areas for land management, the threat to connectivity between cheetah populations, and areas where the reduction and mitigation of human-cheetah conflict is critical. Our analysis showed the existence of a wide prey base for cheetahs across large parts of Botswana's agricultural areas, which provide additional large areas with high conservation potential. Twenty percent of wild prey biomass appears to be the critical point to distinguish between high and low probable levels of human-cheetah conflict. We identified focal areas in the agricultural zones where restoring wild prey numbers in concurrence with effective human-cheetah conflict mitigation efforts are the most immediate conservation strategies needed to maintain Botswana's still large and contiguous cheetah population.

Increased tornado hazard in large metropolitan areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cusack, Stephen

2014-11-01

The tornado climate was compared between large metropolitan areas and neighbouring non-metro cities using modern tornado reports in the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) archives. Twenty large metro areas in the higher-risk region of the U.S. were used to boost sample sizes hence robustness of results. Observational biases were minimised by using the most densely populated zips. The analysis found 50% greater tornado frequency and a thicker-tailed severity distribution in metro areas compared to the non-metro cities. These differences are significant at the 1% level. Regarding tornado frequency, the primary question is whether the raised occurrence rates in metro areas are due to observation biases or real differences in tornado climate. Past studies found no relative biases at the population densities used here, whereas there are two potential urban drivers of tornadogenesis. First, the urban heat island raises the storm severity above and downwind of main urban areas, as recorded in precipitation and lightning datasets. Second, the increased surface roughness over metro areas raises low-level shear which in turn has been found to be favourable for tornadogenesis. Modification of convective storms over large metro areas is the more plausible explanation of raised tornado frequency. The drivers of a thicker-tailed tornado severity distribution in metro areas are less certain. Potential causes include: increased debris-loading in metro tornadoes; modification of storms' lower boundary layer by increased surface roughness in metro areas; the reduced density of damage indicators in non-metro cities.

Historical range, extirpation and prospects for reintroduction of saigas in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Shaopeng; Milner-Gulland, E. J.; Singh, Navinder J.; Chu, Hongjun; Li, Chunwang; Chen, Jing; Jiang, Zhigang

2017-03-01

An assessment of historical distribution patterns and potential reintroduction sites is important for reducing the risk of reintroduction failure of endangered species. The saiga antelope, Saiga tatarica, was extirpated in the mid-20th century in China. A captive population was established in the Wuwei Endangered Wildlife Breeding Centre (WEWBC) in the 1980s. Reintroduction is planned, but so far, no action has been taken. In this study, we delineated the historical distribution and potential reintroduction areas of saigas in China, using a literature review, interviews and predictive modelling. Results suggest that most of the seasonally suitable areas are non-overlapping, and China may have been a peripheral part of the main saiga range. WEWBC is not an ideal reintroduction site due to its low habitat suitability. Furthermore, we infer that two different movement patterns existed historically (regular migration and nomadic wandering). Our results demonstrate the challenges of restoring a free-ranging, self-sustaining saiga population in China. We recommend the setting up of additional breeding centres in protected areas within the potential saiga range in Xinjiang, and the development of a national action plan to provide a framework for the future recovery of the species.

Historical range, extirpation and prospects for reintroduction of saigas in China

PubMed Central

Cui, Shaopeng; Milner-Gulland, E. J.; Singh, Navinder J.; Chu, Hongjun; Li, Chunwang; Chen, Jing; Jiang, Zhigang

2017-01-01

An assessment of historical distribution patterns and potential reintroduction sites is important for reducing the risk of reintroduction failure of endangered species. The saiga antelope, Saiga tatarica, was extirpated in the mid-20th century in China. A captive population was established in the Wuwei Endangered Wildlife Breeding Centre (WEWBC) in the 1980s. Reintroduction is planned, but so far, no action has been taken. In this study, we delineated the historical distribution and potential reintroduction areas of saigas in China, using a literature review, interviews and predictive modelling. Results suggest that most of the seasonally suitable areas are non-overlapping, and China may have been a peripheral part of the main saiga range. WEWBC is not an ideal reintroduction site due to its low habitat suitability. Furthermore, we infer that two different movement patterns existed historically (regular migration and nomadic wandering). Our results demonstrate the challenges of restoring a free-ranging, self-sustaining saiga population in China. We recommend the setting up of additional breeding centres in protected areas within the potential saiga range in Xinjiang, and the development of a national action plan to provide a framework for the future recovery of the species. PMID:28276473

Movement and effects of spilled oil over the outer continental shelf; inadequacy of existent data for the Baltimore Canyon Trough area

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knebel, Harley J.

1974-01-01

A deductive approach to the problem of determining the movement and effects of spilled oil over the Outer Continental Shelf requires that the potential paths of oil be determined first, in order that critical subareas may be defined for later studies. The paths of spilled oil, in turn, depend primarily on the temporal and spatial variability of four factors: the thermohaline structure of the waters, the circulation of the water, the winds, and the distribution of suspended matter. A review of the existent data concerning these factors for the Baltimore Canyon Trough area (a relatively well studied segment of the Continental Shelf) reveals that the movement and dispersal of potential oil spills cannot be reliably predicted. Variations in the thermohaline structure of waters and in the distribution of suspended matter are adequately known; the uncertainty is due to insufficient wind and storm statistics and to the lack of quantitative understanding of the relationship between the nontidal drift and its basic driving mechanisms. Similar inadequacies should be anticipated for other potentially leasable areas of the shelf because an understanding of the movement of spilled oil has not been the underlying aim of most previous studies.

A distributed parallel storage architecture and its potential application within EOSDIS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, William E.; Tierney, Brian; Feuquay, Jay; Butzer, Tony

1994-01-01

We describe the architecture, implementation, use of a scalable, high performance, distributed-parallel data storage system developed in the ARPA funded MAGIC gigabit testbed. A collection of wide area distributed disk servers operate in parallel to provide logical block level access to large data sets. Operated primarily as a network-based cache, the architecture supports cooperation among independently owned resources to provide fast, large-scale, on-demand storage to support data handling, simulation, and computation.

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects

PubMed Central

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping

2018-01-01

Background The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth’s biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. Methods In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a ‘Vulnerable’ species, Pseudolarix amabilis, in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Results Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. Discussion In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time. PMID:29362700

Distributional dynamics of a vulnerable species in response to past and future climate change: a window for conservation prospects.

PubMed

Bai, Yunjun; Wei, Xueping; Li, Xiaoqiang

2018-01-01

The ongoing change in climate is predicted to exert unprecedented effects on Earth's biodiversity at all levels of organization. Biological conservation is important to prevent biodiversity loss, especially for species facing a high risk of extinction. Understanding the past responses of species to climate change is helpful for revealing response mechanisms, which will contribute to the development of effective conservation strategies in the future. In this study, we modelled the distributional dynamics of a 'Vulnerable' species, Pseudolarix amabilis , in response to late Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and future 2080 climate change using an ecological niche model (MaxEnt). We also performed migration vector analysis to reveal the potential migration of the population over time. Historical modelling indicates that the range dynamics of P. amabilis is highly sensitive to climate change and that its long-distance dispersal ability and potential for evolutionary adaption are limited. Compared to the current climatically suitable areas for this species, future modelling showed significant migration northward towards future potential climatically suitable areas. In combination with the predicted future distribution, the mechanism revealed by the historical response suggests that this species will not be able to fully occupy the future expanded areas of suitable climate or adapt to the unsuitable climate across the future contraction regions. As a result, we suggest assisted migration as an effective supplementary means of conserving this vulnerable species in the face of the unprecedentedly rapid climate change of the 21st century. As a study case, this work highlights the significance of introducing historical perspectives while researching species conservation, especially for currently vulnerable or endangered taxa that once had a wider distribution in geological time.

Potential effects of climate change on the distribution of waterbirds in the Prairie Pothole Region, U.S.A.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Steen, Valerie; Powell, Abby N.

2012-01-01

Wetland-dependent birds are considered to be at particularly high risk for negative climate change effects. Current and future distributions of American Bittern (Botaurus lentiginosus), American Coot (Fulica americana), Black Tern (Chlidonias niger), Pied-billed Grebe (Podilymbus podiceps) and Sora (Porzana carolina), five waterbird species common in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR), were predicted using species distribution models (SDMs) in combination with climate data that projected a drier future for the PPR. Regional-scale SDMs were created for the U.S. PPR using breeding bird survey occurrence records for 1971-2000 and wetland and climate parameters. For each waterbird species, current distribution and four potential future distributions were predicted: all combinations of two Global Circulation Models and two emissions scenarios. Averaged for all five species, the ensemble range reduction was 64%. However, projected range losses for individual species varied widely with Sora and Black Tern projected to lose close to 100% and American Bittern 29% of their current range. Future distributions were also projected to a hypothetical landscape where wetlands were numerous and constant to highlight areas suitable as conservation reserves under a drier future climate. The ensemble model indicated that northeastern North Dakota and northern Minnesota would be the best areas for conservation reserves within the U.S. PPR under the modeled conditions.

Climate change and the distribution and conservation of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuyckens, G. A. E.; Christie, D. A.; Domic, A. I.; Malizia, L. R.; Renison, D.

2016-02-01

Climate change is becoming an increasing threat to biodiversity. Consequently, methods for delineation, establishment and management of protected areas must consider the species' future distribution in response to future climate conditions. Biodiversity in high altitude semiarid regions may be particularly threatened by future climate change. In this study we assess the main environmental variables that best explain present day presence of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano, and model how climate change may affect the future distribution of this unique ecosystem under different climate change scenarios. These woodlands are dominated by Polylepis tarapacana (Rosaceae), a species that forms unique biological communities with important conservation value. Our results indicate that five environmental variables are responsible for 91% and 90.3% of the present and future P. tarapacana distribution models respectively, and suggest that at the end of the 21st century, there will be a significant reduction (56%) in the potential habitat for this species due to more arid conditions. Since it is predicted that P. tarapacana's potential distribution will be severely reduced in the future, we propose a new network of national protected areas across this species distribution range in order to insure the future conservation of this unique ecosystem. Based on an extensive literature review we identify research topics and recommendations for on-ground conservation and management of P. tarapacana woodlands.

Distributed Power Allocation for Wireless Sensor Network Localization: A Potential Game Approach.

PubMed

Ke, Mingxing; Li, Ding; Tian, Shiwei; Zhang, Yuli; Tong, Kaixiang; Xu, Yuhua

2018-05-08

The problem of distributed power allocation in wireless sensor network (WSN) localization systems is investigated in this paper, using the game theoretic approach. Existing research focuses on the minimization of the localization errors of individual agent nodes over all anchor nodes subject to power budgets. When the service area and the distribution of target nodes are considered, finding the optimal trade-off between localization accuracy and power consumption is a new critical task. To cope with this issue, we propose a power allocation game where each anchor node minimizes the square position error bound (SPEB) of the service area penalized by its individual power. Meanwhile, it is proven that the power allocation game is an exact potential game which has one pure Nash equilibrium (NE) at least. In addition, we also prove the existence of an ϵ -equilibrium point, which is a refinement of NE and the better response dynamic approach can reach the end solution. Analytical and simulation results demonstrate that: (i) when prior distribution information is available, the proposed strategies have better localization accuracy than the uniform strategies; (ii) when prior distribution information is unknown, the performance of the proposed strategies outperforms power management strategies based on the second-order cone program (SOCP) for particular agent nodes after obtaining the estimated distribution of agent nodes. In addition, proposed strategies also provide an instructional trade-off between power consumption and localization accuracy.

Resolution and contrast in Kelvin probe force microscopy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jacobs, H. O.; Leuchtmann, P.; Homan, O. J.; Stemmer, A.

1998-08-01

The combination of atomic force microscopy and Kelvin probe technology is a powerful tool to obtain high-resolution maps of the surface potential distribution on conducting and nonconducting samples. However, resolution and contrast transfer of this method have not been fully understood, so far. To obtain a better quantitative understanding, we introduce a model which correlates the measured potential with the actual surface potential distribution, and we compare numerical simulations of the three-dimensional tip-specimen model with experimental data from test structures. The observed potential is a locally weighted average over all potentials present on the sample surface. The model allows us to calculate these weighting factors and, furthermore, leads to the conclusion that good resolution in potential maps is obtained by long and slender but slightly blunt tips on cantilevers of minimal width and surface area.

Codling Moth (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) Establishment in China: Stages of Invasion and Potential Future Distribution.

PubMed

Zhu, Hongyu; Kumar, Sunil; Neven, Lisa G

2017-07-01

Codling moth (Cydia pomonella L.) is an internal feeding pest of apples and can cause substantial economic losses to fruit growers due to larval feeding which in turn degrades fruit quality and can result in complete crop loss if left uncontrolled. Although this pest originally developed in central Asia, it was not known to occur in China until 1953. For the first three decades the spread of codling moth within China was slow. Within the last three decades, addition of new commercial apple orchards and improved transportation, this pest has spread to over 131 counties in seven provinces in China. We developed regional (China) and global ecological niche models using MaxEnt to identify areas at highest potential risk of codling moth establishment and spread. Our objectives were to 1) predict the potential distribution of codling moth in China, 2) identify the important environmental factors associated with codling moth distribution in China, and 3) identify the different stages of invasion of codling moth in China. Human footprint, annual temperature range, precipitation of wettest quarter, and degree days ≥10 °C were the most important predictors associated with codling moth distribution. Our analysis identified areas where codling moth has the potential to establish, and mapped the different stages of invasion (i.e., potential for population stabilization, colonization, adaptation, and sink) of codling moth in China. Our results can be used in effective monitoring and management to stem the spread of codling moth in China. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Entomological Society of America 2017. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Habitat productivity constrains the distribution of social spiders across continents – case study of the genus Stegodyphus

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction Sociality has evolved independently multiple times across the spider phylogeny, and despite wide taxonomic and geographical breadth the social species are characterized by a common geographical constrain to tropical and subtropical areas. Here we investigate the environmental factors that drive macro-ecological patterns in social and solitary species in a genus that shows a Mediterranean–Afro-Oriental distribution (Stegodyphus). Both selected drivers (productivity and seasonality) may affect the abundance of potential prey insects, but seasonality may further directly affect survival due to mortality caused by extreme climatic events. Based on a comprehensive dataset including information about the distribution of three independently derived social species and 13 solitary congeners we tested the hypotheses that the distribution of social Stegodyphus species relative to solitary congeners is: (1) restricted to habitats of high vegetation productivity and (2) constrained to areas with a stable climate (low precipitation seasonality). Results Using spatial logistic regression modelling and information-theoretic model selection, we show that social species occur at higher vegetation productivity than solitary, while precipitation seasonality received limited support as a predictor of social spider occurrence. An analysis of insect biomass data across the Stegodyphus distribution range confirmed that vegetation productivity is positively correlated to potential insect prey biomass. Conclusions Habitat productivity constrains the distribution of social spiders across continents compared to their solitary congeners, with group-living in spiders being restricted to areas with relatively high vegetation productivity and insect prey biomass. As known for other taxa, permanent sociality likely evolves in response to high predation pressure and imposes within-group competition for resources. Our results suggest that group living is contingent upon productive environmental conditions where elevated prey abundance meet the increased demand for food of social groups. PMID:23433065

[Potential distribution of Panax ginseng and its predicted responses to climate change.

PubMed

Zhao, Ze Fang; Wei, Hai Yan; Guo, Yan Long; Gu, Wei

2016-11-18

This study utilized Panax ginseng as the research object. Based on BioMod2 platform, with species presence data and 22 climatic variables, the potential geographic distribution of P. ginseng under the current conditions in northeast China was simulated with ten species distribution model. And then with the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC) as weights, we build an ensemble model, which integrated the results of 10 models, using the ensemble model, the future distributions of P. ginseng were also projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under the climate change scenarios of RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that for the entire region of study area, under the present climatic conditions, 10.4% of the areas were identified as suitable habitats, which were mainly located in northeast Changbai Mountains area and the southeastern region of the Xiaoxing'an Mountains. The model simulations indicated that the suitable habitats would have a relatively significant change under the different climate change scenarios, and generally the range of suitable habitats would be a certain degree of decrease. Meanwhile, the goodness-of-fit, predicted ranges, and weights of explanatory variables was various for each model. And according to the goodness-of-fit, Maxent had the highest model performance, and GAM, RF and ANN were followed, while SRE had the lowest prediction accuracy. In this study we established an ensemble model, which could improve the accuracy of the existing species distribution models, and optimization of species distribution prediction results.

[Prediction of the suitable distribution and responses to climate change of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province, China].

PubMed

Zhang, Yin Bo; Gao, Chen Hong; Qin, Hao

2018-04-01

Understanding the responses of the habitats of endangered species to climate change is of great significance for biodiversity conservation and the maintenance of the integrity of ecosystem function. In this study, the potential suitable distribution habitats of Elaeagnus mollis in Shanxi Province was simulated by the maximum entropy model, based on 73 occurrence field records and 35 environmental factors under the current climate condition. Moreover, with the Fifth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the dynamics of distribution pattern was analyzed for E. mollis under different climate scenarios. The results showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) value was 0.987, indicating that the data fitted the model very well and that the prediction was highly reliable. Results from the Jackknife test showed that the main environmental variables affecting the E. mollis distribution were the precipitation seasonality, the range of annual temperature, annual mean temperature, isothermality, annual precipitation, and pH of topsoil, with the cumulative contribution reaching 94.8%. At present, the potential suitable habitats of E. mollis are mainly located in two regions, the southern of Lyuliang Mountain and Zhongtiao Mountain in Shanxi Province. Under different climate scenarios, the total suitable area of E. mollis would shrink in 2070s. In RCP 2.6 the suitable area would firstly increase and then decrease, while in RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 it would response sensitively and first decrease and then increase. Its spatial distribution in two suitable regions would show divergent responses to climate change. The distribution in southern Lyuliang Mountain would fluctuate slightly in latitudinal direction, while that in Zhongtiao Mountain would migrate along elevation.

Enhancement in ion adsorption rate and desalination efficiency in a capacitive deionization cell through improved electric field distribution using electrodes composed of activated carbon cloth coated with zinc oxide nanorods.

PubMed

Laxman, Karthik; Myint, Myo Tay Zar; Bourdoucen, Hadj; Dutta, Joydeep

2014-07-09

Electrodes composed of activated carbon cloth (ACC) coated with zinc oxide (ZnO) nanorods are compared with plain ACC electrodes, with respect to their desalination efficiency of a 17 mM NaCl solution at different applied potentials. Polarization of the ZnO nanorods increased the penetration depth and strength of the electric field between the electrodes, leading to an increase in the capacitance and charge efficiency at reduced input charge ratios. Uniform distribution of the electric field lines between two electrodes coated with ZnO nanorods led to faster ion adsorption rates, reduced the electrode saturation time, and increased the average desalination efficiency by ∼45% for all applied potentials. The electrodes were characterized for active surface area, capacitance from cyclic voltammetry, theoretical assessment of surface area utilization, and the magnitude of electric field force acting on an ion of unit charge for each potential.

Developing a methodology to predict oak wilt distribution using classification tree analysis

Treesearch

Marla C. Downing; Vernon L. Thomas; Robin M. Reich

2006-01-01

Oak wilt (Ceratocystis fagacearum), a fungal disease that causes some species of oak trees to wilt and die rapidly, is a threat to oak forested resources in 22 states in the United States. We developed a methodology for predicting the Potential Distribution of Oak Wilt (PDOW) using Anoka County, Minnesota as our study area. The PDOW utilizes GIS; the...

Climate-based species distribution models for Armillaria solidipes in Wyoming: A preliminary assessment

Treesearch

John W. Hanna; James T. Blodgett; Eric W. I. Pitman; Sarah M. Ashiglar; John E. Lundquist; Mee-Sook Kim; Amy L. Ross-Davis; Ned B. Klopfenstein

2014-01-01

As part of an ongoing project to predict Armillaria root disease in the Rocky Mountain zone, this project predicts suitable climate space (potential distribution) for A. solidipes in Wyoming and associated forest areas at risk to disease caused by this pathogen. Two bioclimatic models are being developed. One model is based solely on verified locations of A. solidipes...

Geographical Environment Factors and Risk Assessment of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Hulunbuir, Northeastern China.

PubMed

Li, Yifan; Wang, Juanle; Gao, Mengxu; Fang, Liqun; Liu, Changhua; Lyu, Xin; Bai, Yongqing; Zhao, Qiang; Li, Hairong; Yu, Hongjie; Cao, Wuchun; Feng, Liqiang; Wang, Yanjun; Zhang, Bin

2017-05-26

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is one of natural foci diseases transmitted by ticks. Its distribution and transmission are closely related to geographic and environmental factors. Identification of environmental determinates of TBE is of great importance to understanding the general distribution of existing and potential TBE natural foci. Hulunbuir, one of the most severe endemic areas of the disease, is selected as the study area. Statistical analysis, global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis, and regression methods were applied to detect the spatiotemporal characteristics, compare the impact degree of associated factors, and model the risk distribution using the heterogeneity. The statistical analysis of gridded geographic and environmental factors and TBE incidence show that the TBE patients mainly occurred during spring and summer and that there is a significant positive spatial autocorrelation between the distribution of TBE cases and environmental characteristics. The impact degree of these factors on TBE risks has the following descending order: temperature, relative humidity, vegetation coverage, precipitation and topography. A high-risk area with a triangle shape was determined in the central part of Hulunbuir; the low-risk area is located in the two belts next to the outside edge of the central triangle. The TBE risk distribution revealed that the impact of the geographic factors changed depending on the heterogeneity.

METHODOLOGY FOR PROJECTION OF OCCUPATIONAL TRENDS IN THE DENVER STANDARD METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

FISHMAN, LESLIE; AND OTHERS

THE FINAL STAGE OF A PROGRAM FOR ACHIEVING A BALANCE BETWEEN THE AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND FOR LABOR IS THE DISTRIBUTION OF THE INDUSTRY EMPLOYMENT ESTIMATES INTO OCCUPATIONAL REQUIREMENTS BASED ON PROJECTIONS OF OCCUPATIONAL PATTERNS BY INDUSTRY. THIS CAN BE USED TO EVALUATE POTENTIAL AREAS OF SUBSTANTIAL SURPLUS OR SHORTAGE, AND PROVIDE THE…

Where to Dig for Fossils: Combining Climate-Envelope, Taphonomy and Discovery Models

PubMed Central

Block, Sebastián; Saltré, Frédérik; Rodríguez-Rey, Marta; Fordham, Damien A.; Unkel, Ingmar; Bradshaw, Corey J. A.

2016-01-01

Fossils represent invaluable data to reconstruct the past history of life, yet fossil-rich sites are often rare and difficult to find. The traditional fossil-hunting approach focuses on small areas and has not yet taken advantage of modelling techniques commonly used in ecology to account for an organism’s past distributions. We propose a new method to assist finding fossils at continental scales based on modelling the past distribution of species, the geological suitability of fossil preservation and the likelihood of fossil discovery in the field, and apply it to several genera of Australian megafauna that went extinct in the Late Quaternary. Our models predicted higher fossil potentials for independent sites than for randomly selected locations (mean Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic = 0.66). We demonstrate the utility of accounting for the distribution history of fossil taxa when trying to find the most suitable areas to look for fossils. For some genera, the probability of finding fossils based on simple climate-envelope models was higher than the probability based on models incorporating current conditions associated with fossil preservation and discovery as predictors. However, combining the outputs from climate-envelope, preservation, and discovery models resulted in the most accurate predictions of potential fossil sites at a continental scale. We proposed potential areas to discover new fossils of Diprotodon, Zygomaturus, Protemnodon, Thylacoleo, and Genyornis, and provide guidelines on how to apply our approach to assist fossil hunting in other continents and geological settings. PMID:27027874

Where to Dig for Fossils: Combining Climate-Envelope, Taphonomy and Discovery Models.

PubMed

Block, Sebastián; Saltré, Frédérik; Rodríguez-Rey, Marta; Fordham, Damien A; Unkel, Ingmar; Bradshaw, Corey J A

2016-01-01

Fossils represent invaluable data to reconstruct the past history of life, yet fossil-rich sites are often rare and difficult to find. The traditional fossil-hunting approach focuses on small areas and has not yet taken advantage of modelling techniques commonly used in ecology to account for an organism's past distributions. We propose a new method to assist finding fossils at continental scales based on modelling the past distribution of species, the geological suitability of fossil preservation and the likelihood of fossil discovery in the field, and apply it to several genera of Australian megafauna that went extinct in the Late Quaternary. Our models predicted higher fossil potentials for independent sites than for randomly selected locations (mean Kolmogorov-Smirnov statistic = 0.66). We demonstrate the utility of accounting for the distribution history of fossil taxa when trying to find the most suitable areas to look for fossils. For some genera, the probability of finding fossils based on simple climate-envelope models was higher than the probability based on models incorporating current conditions associated with fossil preservation and discovery as predictors. However, combining the outputs from climate-envelope, preservation, and discovery models resulted in the most accurate predictions of potential fossil sites at a continental scale. We proposed potential areas to discover new fossils of Diprotodon, Zygomaturus, Protemnodon, Thylacoleo, and Genyornis, and provide guidelines on how to apply our approach to assist fossil hunting in other continents and geological settings.

Alien plant invasions--incorporating emerging invaders in regional prioritization: a pragmatic approach for Southern Africa.

PubMed

Mgidi, Theresa N; Le Maitre, David C; Schonegevel, Lucille; Nel, Jeanne L; Rouget, Mathieu; Richardson, David M

2007-07-01

Plant invasions are a serious threat to natural and semi-natural ecosystems worldwide. Most management-orientated research on invasions focuses on invaders that are already widespread and often have major impacts. This paper deals with "emerging" invaders-those alien species with the potential to become important problems without timely intervention. A climate matching procedure was developed to define areas of South Africa, Lesotho and Swaziland that could be invaded by 28 plant species that had previously been classified as emerging invaders. Information on the location of populations of these species in the study area was combined with information on their distributions (as native or alien) in parts of Australia and the United States of America. These two countries had the best available distribution data for this study. They also share many invasive alien plant species with South Africa. Climatic data obtained for weather stations near points of known occurrence in these countries were used to define the climatically suitable areas for each species in the study area. Almost 80% of the remaining natural environment in southern Africa was found to be vulnerable to invasion by at least one of these species, 50% by six or more and 24% by 16 or more species. The most vulnerable areas are the highveld grasslands and the eastern escarpment. The emerging invaders with the greatest potential range included Acacia podalyriifolia and Cortaderia selloana. The globally important invaders Ulex europaeus and Lythrum salicaria had a more limited invasion potential but could still become major invaders. There was no relationship between the extent of the climatically suitable areas for the different species and an expert ranking of their invasion potential, emphasising the uncertainties inherent in making expert assessments based on very little information. The methods used in this analysis establish a protocol for future modelling exercises to assess the invasion potential of other emerging invaders.

Distribution of ground-nesting marine birds along shorelines in Glacier Bay, southeastern Alaska: An assessment related to potential disturbance by back-country users

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arimitsu, Mayumi L.; Piatt, John F.; Romano, Marc D.

2007-01-01

With the exception of a few large colonies, the distribution of ground-nesting marine birds in Glacier Bay National Park in southeastern Alaska is largely unknown. As visitor use increases in back-country areas of the park, there is growing concern over the potential impact of human activities on breeding birds. During the 2003–05 breeding seasons, the shoreline of Glacier Bay was surveyed to locate ground-nesting marine birds and their nesting areas, including wildlife closures and historical sites for egg collection by Alaska Native peoples. The nesting distribution of four common ground-nesting marine bird species was determined: Arctic Tern (Sterna paradisaea), Black Oystercatcher (Haematopus bachmani), Mew Gull (Larus canus), and Glaucous-winged Gull (Larus glaucescens). Observations of less abundant species also were recorded, including Herring Gull (Larus argentatus), Red-throated Loon (Gavia stellata), Canada Goose (Branta canadensis), Willow Ptarmigan (Lagopus lagopus), Semipalmated Plover (Charadrius semipalmatus), Spotted Sandpiper (Actitis macularia), Least Sandpiper (Calidris minutilla), Parasitic Jaeger (Stercorarius parasiticus), and Aleutian Tern (Sterna aleutica). Nesting distribution for Arctic Terns was largely restricted to the upper arms of the bay and a few treeless islets in the lower bay, whereas Black Oystercatchers were more widely distributed along shorelines in the park. Mew Gulls nested throughout the upper bay in Geikie Inlet and in Fingers and Berg Bays, and most Glaucous-winged Gull nests were found at wildlife closures in the central and lower bays. Several areas were identified where human disturbance could affect breeding birds. This study comprises the first bay-wide survey for the breeding distribution of ground-nesting marine birds in Glacier Bay National Park, providing a minimum estimate of their numbers and distribution within the park. This information can be used to assess future human disturbance and track natural changes in nesting bird distribution over time.

Assessment of potentially harmful elements pollution in the Calore River basin (Southern Italy).

PubMed

Zuzolo, Daniela; Cicchella, Domenico; Catani, Vittorio; Giaccio, Lucia; Guagliardi, Ilaria; Esposito, Libera; De Vivo, Benedetto

2017-06-01

The geographical distribution of concentration values for harmful elements was determined in the Campania region, Italy. The study area consists of the drainage basin of the River Calore, a tributary of the river Volturno, the largest Southern Italian river. The results provide reliable analytical data allowing a quantitative assessment of the trace element pollution threat to the ecosystem and human health. Altogether 562 stream sediment samples were collected at a sampling density of 1 site per 5 km 2 . All samples were air-dried, sieved to <100 mesh fraction and analyzed for 37 elements after an aqua regia extraction by a combination of ICP-AES and ICP-MS. In addition to elemental analysis, gamma-ray spectrometry data were collected (a total of 562 measurements) using a hand-held Scintrex GRS-500 spectrometer. Statistical analyses were performed to show the single-element distribution and the distribution of elemental association factor scores resulting from R-mode factor analyses. Maps showing element distributions were made using GeoDAS and ArcGIS software. Our study showed that, despite evidence from concentrations of many elements for enrichment over natural background values, the spatial distribution of major and trace elements in Calore River basin is determined mostly by geogenic factors. The southwestern area of the basin highlighted an enrichment of many elements potentially harmful for human health and other living organisms (Al, Fe, K, Na, As, Cd, La, Pb, Th, Tl, U); however, these anomalies are due to the presence of pyroclastic and alkaline volcanic lithologies. Even where sedimentary lithologies occur, many harmful elements (Co, Cr, Mn, Ni) showed high concentration levels due to natural origins. Conversely, a strong heavy metal contamination (Pb, Zn, Cu, Sb, Ag, Au, Hg), due to an anthropogenic contribution, is highlighted in many areas characterized by the presence of road junctions, urban settlements and industrial areas. The enrichment factor of these elements is 3-4 times higher than the background values. The southwestern area of the basin is characterized by a moderate/high degree of contamination, just where the two busiest roads of the area run and the highest concentration of industries occurs.

Large-scale determinants of intestinal schistosomiasis and intermediate host snail distribution across Africa: does climate matter?

PubMed

Stensgaard, Anna-Sofie; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope; Hürlimann, Eveline; Schur, Nadine; Saarnak, Christopher F L; Simoonga, Christopher; Mubita, Patricia; Kabatereine, Narcis B; Tchuem Tchuenté, Louis-Albert; Rahbek, Carsten; Kristensen, Thomas K

2013-11-01

The geographical ranges of most species, including many infectious disease agents and their vectors and intermediate hosts, are assumed to be constrained by climatic tolerances, mainly temperature. It has been suggested that global warming will cause an expansion of the areas potentially suitable for infectious disease transmission. However, the transmission of infectious diseases is governed by a myriad of ecological, economic, evolutionary and social factors. Hence, a deeper understanding of the total disease system (pathogens, vectors and hosts) and its drivers is important for predicting responses to climate change. Here, we combine a growing degree day model for Schistosoma mansoni with species distribution models for the intermediate host snail (Biomphalaria spp.) to investigate large-scale environmental determinants of the distribution of the African S. mansoni-Biomphalaria system and potential impacts of climatic changes. Snail species distribution models included several combinations of climatic and habitat-related predictors; the latter divided into "natural" and "human-impacted" habitat variables to measure anthropogenic influence. The predictive performance of the combined snail-parasite model was evaluated against a comprehensive compilation of historical S. mansoni parasitological survey records, and then examined for two climate change scenarios of increasing severity for 2080. Future projections indicate that while the potential S. mansoni transmission area expands, the snail ranges are more likely to contract and/or move into cooler areas in the south and east. Importantly, we also note that even though climate per se matters, the impact of humans on habitat play a crucial role in determining the distribution of the intermediate host snails in Africa. Thus, a future contraction in the geographical range size of the intermediate host snails caused by climatic changes does not necessarily translate into a decrease or zero-sum change in human schistosomiasis prevalence. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Potential for Spatial Distribution Indices to Signal Thresholds in Marine Fish Biomass

PubMed Central

Reuchlin-Hugenholtz, Emilie

2015-01-01

The frequently observed positive relationship between fish population abundance and spatial distribution suggests that changes in distribution can be indicative of trends in abundance. If contractions in spatial distribution precede declines in spawning stock biomass (SSB), spatial distribution reference points could complement the SSB reference points that are commonly used in marine conservation biology and fisheries management. When relevant spatial distribution information is integrated into fisheries management and recovery plans, risks and uncertainties associated with a plan based solely on the SSB criterion would be reduced. To assess the added value of spatial distribution data, we examine the relationship between SSB and four metrics of spatial distribution intended to reflect changes in population range, concentration, and density for 10 demersal populations (9 species) inhabiting the Scotian Shelf, Northwest Atlantic. Our primary purpose is to assess their potential to serve as indices of SSB, using fisheries independent survey data. We find that metrics of density offer the best correlate of spawner biomass. A decline in the frequency of encountering high density areas is associated with, and in a few cases preceded by, rapid declines in SSB in 6 of 10 populations. Density-based indices have considerable potential to serve both as an indicator of SSB and as spatially based reference points in fisheries management. PMID:25789624

Cetacean response to environmental and anthropogenic drivers of change: Results of a 25-year distribution study in the northwestern Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Azzellino, Arianna; Airoldi, Sabina; Lanfredi, Caterina; Podestà, Michela; Zanardelli, Margherita

2017-12-01

Marine mammals are in many situations one of the most studied component of marine ecosystems. Their habitat requirements may be used to detect and describe the impacts of changes in the environmental conditions or in the human-induced pressures affecting the area where they live. The aim of this study is to investigate the distribution patterns of the most frequent cetacean species occurring in the area of the Pelagos Sanctuary (Northwestern Mediterranean Sea) and their potential correlations with both environmental and anthropogenic drivers of changes. Two different types of data were used: sighting data from ship-board surveys and strandings data collected along the Ligurian coast by the Italian Stranding Network, spanning from 1986 to 2014. Sighting data were collected during summer surveys conducted from June to September, between 1990 and 2014 in an area of approximately 29,000 km2, within the Pelagos Sanctuary for over 115,000 km surveyed under favorable conditions. A total of 4,683 sightings of the five most common cetacean species were collected: 3,305 (70.5%) striped dolphins, 814 (17.3%) fin whales, 169 (3.6%) Risso's dolphins, 347 (7.4%) sperm whales and 48 (1.02%) Cuvier's beaked whales. The species time series of both encounter and stranding rates have been investigated in the light of potential drivers of changes. The results suggest that the area may be suffering from some ecosystem change which is causing the observed changes in the distribution pattern of the five species. Potential disturbance from human activities, namely fishery and maritime traffic, could not be excluded.

Distribution, fate and risk assessment of PAHs in water and sediments from an aquaculture- and shipping-impacted subtropical lake, China.

PubMed

Zeng, Qingfei; Jeppesen, Erik; Gu, Xiaohong; Mao, Zhigang; Chen, Huihui

2018-06-01

The spatial-temporal distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), their source, and potential health risks were determined in overlying water and surface sediments from Chinese Lake Guchenghu, adjacent commercial mitten crab ponds and the connected Wushen Canal to assess the contamination profile of the area. The total PAHs concentrations in sediment and water were 86.7-1790 ng g -1 dry weight (dw) and 184-365 ng L -1 in summer and 184-3140 ng g -1 dw and 410-1160 ng L -1 in winter. Two- and 3-ring PAHs were the predominant compounds in water, while PAHs with 4-6 rings dominated in the sediment at both upstream and downstream sites. PAHs concentrations in water and sediment correlated significantly. Diagnostic ratios and positive matrix factorization (PMF) analyses indicated a strong influence of pyrogenic sources, principally biomass combustion and vehicle emission, on the concentrations of PAHs. The distribution, source identification, and mean effects range median quotients (mERMQ) analyses suggested that the most contaminated area was located downstream and upstream of the Wushen Canal, followed by Lake Guchenghu and a commercial crab pond area. From an ecological point of view, PAHs posed a potential risk to drinking water sources as the concentrations exceeded the guideline value of 0.05 μg L -1 . The risk posed by sediment PAHs appeared to be low except for the downstream sites, which showed a low to medium ecotoxicological risk. The total incremental lifetime cancer risks ranged between 10 -7 and 10 -5 , indicating a potential health risk for the local population when exposed to sediment from the area. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extremely high data-rate, reliable network systems research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Foudriat, E. C.; Maly, Kurt J.; Mukkamala, R.; Murray, Nicholas D.; Overstreet, C. Michael

1990-01-01

Significant progress was made over the year in the four focus areas of this research group: gigabit protocols, extensions of metropolitan protocols, parallel protocols, and distributed simulations. Two activities, a network management tool and the Carrier Sensed Multiple Access Collision Detection (CSMA/CD) protocol, have developed to the point that a patent is being applied for in the next year; a tool set for distributed simulation using the language SIMSCRIPT also has commercial potential and is to be further refined. The year's results for each of these areas are summarized and next year's activities are described.

Modelling potential/current distribution in microbial electrochemical systems shows how the optimal bioanode architecture depends on electrolyte conductivity.

PubMed

Lacroix, Rémy; Da Silva, Serge; Gaig, Monica Viaplana; Rousseau, Raphael; Délia, Marie-Line; Bergel, Alain

2014-11-07

The theoretical bases for modelling the distribution of the electrostatic potential in microbial electrochemical systems are described. The secondary potential distribution (i.e. without mass transport limitation of the substrate) is shown to be sufficient to validly address microbial electrolysis cells (MECs). MECs are modelled with two different ionic conductivities of the solution (1 and 5.3 S m(-1)) and two bioanode kinetics (jmax = 5.8 or 34 A m(-2)). A conventional reactor configuration, with the anode and the cathode face to face, is compared with a configuration where the bioanode perpendicular to the cathode implements the electrochemical reaction on its two sides. The low solution conductivity is shown to have a crucial impact, which cancels out the advantages obtained by setting the bioanode perpendicular to the cathode. For the same reason, when the surface area of the anode is increased by multiplying the number of plates, care must be taken not to create too dense anode architecture. Actually, the advantages of increasing the surface area by multiplying the number of plates can be lost through worsening of the electrochemical conditions in the multi-layered anode, because of the increase of the electrostatic potential of the solution inside the anode structure. The model gives the first theoretical bases for scaling up MECs in a rather simple but rigorous way.

Determination of Landslide and Driftwood Potentials by Fixed-wing UAV-Borne RGB and NIR images: A Case Study of Shenmu Area in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Su-Chin; Hsiao, Yu-Shen; Chung, Ta-Hsien

2015-04-01

This study is aimed at determining the landslide and driftwood potentials at Shenmu area in Taiwan by Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV). High-resolution orthomosaics and digital surface models (DSMs) are both obtained from several UAV practical surveys by using a red-green-blue(RGB) camera and a near-infrared(NIR) one, respectively. Couples of artificial aerial survey targets are used for ground control in photogrammtry. The algorithm for this study is based on Logistic regression. 8 main factors, which are elevations, terrain slopes, terrain aspects, terrain reliefs, terrain roughness, distances to roads, distances to rivers, land utilizations, are taken into consideration in our Logistic regression model. The related results from UAV are compared with those from traditional photogrammetry. Overall, the study is focusing on monitoring the distribution of the areas with high-risk landslide and driftwood potentials in Shenmu area by Fixed-wing UAV-Borne RGB and NIR images. We also further analyze the relationship between forests, landslides, disaster potentials and upper river areas.

Assessing the self-development potential of a pharmacy management practitioner through self-assessment survey.

PubMed

Granko, Robert P; Wolfe, Adam S; Kelley, Lindsey R; Morton, Carolyn S; Delgado, Osmel

2015-01-15

The self-development potential of pharmacy management practitioners related to self-management, team development, and network management was assessed. A survey instrument consisting of 12 self-assessment questions and 11 questions about demographics was distributed to pharmacy management practitioners to assess their abilities to manage themselves, their teams, and their networks. The tool was distributed by e-mail hyperlink to 190 potential respondents. Only surveys from respondents who had a pharmacy degree and direct supervisory capacity were analyzed. Respondents rated their progress toward meeting the three imperatives on a scale of 1-5. Responses to the questions were analyzed as ordinal data, with median responses used for assessment. A total of 160 responses were received via e-mail, 149 (93%) of which met the inclusion criteria. About half of all respondents were practicing at institutions of 600 beds or more and supervised at least five employees. The majority of respondents identified their abilities to manage themselves, their teams, and their networks as areas of strength but also acknowledged that using all three of these skills on a daily basis was an area of opportunity. Respondents generally identified management of their network as an area needing work. The majority of survey respondents identified their skills in self-, team, and network management as areas of strength. Respondents generally identified management of their network as an area needing work. Respondents also identified the use of all three imperatives on a daily basis as an area of opportunity for improvement. Copyright © 2015 by the American Society of Health-System Pharmacists, Inc. All rights reserved.

Understanding the Impacts of Land-Use Policies on a Threatened Species: Is There a Future for the Bornean Orang-utan?

PubMed Central

Wich, Serge A.; Gaveau, David; Abram, Nicola; Ancrenaz, Marc; Baccini, Alessandro; Brend, Stephen; Curran, Lisa; Delgado, Roberto A.; Erman, Andi; Fredriksson, Gabriella M.; Goossens, Benoit; Husson, Simon J.; Lackman, Isabelle; Marshall, Andrew J.; Naomi, Anita; Molidena, Elis; Nardiyono; Nurcahyo, Anton; Odom, Kisar; Panda, Adventus; Purnomo; Rafiastanto, Andjar; Ratnasari, Dessy; Santana, Adi H.; Sapari, Imam; van Schaik, Carel P.; Sihite, Jamartin; Spehar, Stephanie; Santoso, Eddy; Suyoko, Amat; Tiju, Albertus; Usher, Graham; Atmoko, Sri Suci Utami; Willems, Erik P.; Meijaard, Erik

2012-01-01

The geographic distribution of Bornean orang-utans and its overlap with existing land-use categories (protected areas, logging and plantation concessions) is a necessary foundation to prioritize conservation planning. Based on an extensive orang-utan survey dataset and a number of environmental variables, we modelled an orang-utan distribution map. The modelled orang-utan distribution map covers 155,106 km2 (21% of Borneo's landmass) and reveals four distinct distribution areas. The most important environmental predictors are annual rainfall and land cover. The overlap of the orang-utan distribution with land-use categories reveals that only 22% of the distribution lies in protected areas, but that 29% lies in natural forest concessions. A further 19% and 6% occurs in largely undeveloped oil palm and tree plantation concessions, respectively. The remaining 24% of the orang-utan distribution range occurs outside of protected areas and outside of concessions. An estimated 49% of the orang-utan distribution will be lost if all forest outside of protected areas and logging concessions is lost. To avoid this potential decline plantation development in orang-utan habitats must be halted because it infringes on national laws of species protection. Further growth of the plantation sector should be achieved through increasing yields in existing plantations and expansion of new plantations into areas that have already been deforested. To reach this goal a large scale island-wide land-use masterplan is needed that clarifies which possible land uses and managements are allowed in the landscape and provides new standardized strategic conservation policies. Such a process should make much better use of non-market values of ecosystem services of forests such as water provision, flood control, carbon sequestration, and sources of livelihood for rural communities. Presently land use planning is more driven by vested interests and direct and immediate economic gains, rather than by approaches that take into consideration social equity and environmental sustainability. PMID:23145100

At-sea distribution of satellite-tracked grey-faced petrels, Pterodroma macroptera gouldi, captured on the Ruamaahua (Aldermen) Islands, New Zealand

USGS Publications Warehouse

MacLeod, Catriona; Adams, Josh; Lyver, Phil

2008-01-01

We used satellite telemetry to determine the at-sea distribution of 32 adult (non-breeders and failed breeders) Grey-faced Petrels, Pterodroma macroptera gouldi, during July-October in 2006 and 2007. Adults captured at breeding colonies on the Ruamaahua (Aldermen) Islands ranged across the southwestern Pacific Ocean and Tasman Sea between 20-49°S and 142°E and 1300 W Petrels were located almost exclusively over offshore waters> 1000 m depth. The extent oftheir distributions was similar across years, but petrels ranged farther south and west in 2006. Individuals displayed a high degree ofspatial overlap (48-620/0 among individuals) and area use revealed three general "hotspots" within their overall range: waters near the Ruamaahua Islands; the central Tasman Sea; and the area surrounding the Chatham Rise. In July-August 2006, most petrels congregated over the Tasman Sea, but for the same period in 2007 were predominantly associated with Chatham Rise. The home ranges of petrels tended to overlap disproportionately more than expected with the Australian Exclusive Economic Zone and less than expected with High Seas, relative to the area available in each zone, in July-August 2006. Accordingly, multiple nations are responsible for determining potential impacts resulting from fisheries bycatch and potential resource competition with Grey-faced Petrels.

The effect of climate change on the distribution of a tropical zoanthid (Palythoa caribaeorum) and its ecological implications.

PubMed

Durante, Leonardo M; Cruz, Igor C S; Lotufo, Tito M C

2018-01-01

Palythoa caribaeorum is a zoanthid often dominant in shallow rocky environments along the west coast of the Atlantic Ocean, from the tropics to the subtropics. This species has high environmental tolerance and is a good space competitor in reef environments. Considering current and future scenarios in the global climate regime, this study aimed to model and analyze the distribution of P. caribaeorum , generating maps of potential distribution for the present and the year 2100. The distribution was modeled using maximum entropy (Maxent) based on 327 occurrence sites retrieved from the literature. Calcite concentration, maximum chlorophyll- a concentration, salinity, pH, and temperature range yielded a model with the smallest Akaike information criterion (2649.8), and were used in the present and future distribution model. Data from the HadGEM2-ES climate model were used to generate the projections for the year 2100. The present distribution of P. caribaeorum shows that parts of the Brazilian coast, Caribbean Sea, and Florida are suitable regions for the species, as they are characterized by high salinity and pH and small temperature variation. An expansion of the species' distribution was forecast northward under mild climate scenarios, while a decrease of suitable areas was forecast in the south. In the climate scenario with the most intense changes, P. caribaeorum would lose one-half of its suitable habitats, including the northernmost and southernmost areas of its distribution. The Caribbean Sea and northeastern Brazil, as well as other places under the influence of coastal upwellings, may serve as potential havens for this species.

The effect of climate change on the distribution of a tropical zoanthid (Palythoa caribaeorum) and its ecological implications

PubMed Central

Cruz, Igor C.S.

2018-01-01

Palythoa caribaeorum is a zoanthid often dominant in shallow rocky environments along the west coast of the Atlantic Ocean, from the tropics to the subtropics. This species has high environmental tolerance and is a good space competitor in reef environments. Considering current and future scenarios in the global climate regime, this study aimed to model and analyze the distribution of P. caribaeorum, generating maps of potential distribution for the present and the year 2100. The distribution was modeled using maximum entropy (Maxent) based on 327 occurrence sites retrieved from the literature. Calcite concentration, maximum chlorophyll-a concentration, salinity, pH, and temperature range yielded a model with the smallest Akaike information criterion (2649.8), and were used in the present and future distribution model. Data from the HadGEM2-ES climate model were used to generate the projections for the year 2100. The present distribution of P. caribaeorum shows that parts of the Brazilian coast, Caribbean Sea, and Florida are suitable regions for the species, as they are characterized by high salinity and pH and small temperature variation. An expansion of the species’ distribution was forecast northward under mild climate scenarios, while a decrease of suitable areas was forecast in the south. In the climate scenario with the most intense changes, P. caribaeorum would lose one-half of its suitable habitats, including the northernmost and southernmost areas of its distribution. The Caribbean Sea and northeastern Brazil, as well as other places under the influence of coastal upwellings, may serve as potential havens for this species. PMID:29785350

The time course of syntactic activation during language processing: a model based on neuropsychological and neurophysiological data.

PubMed

Friederici, A D

1995-09-01

This paper presents a model describing the temporal and neurotopological structure of syntactic processes during comprehension. It postulates three distinct phases of language comprehension, two of which are primarily syntactic in nature. During the first phase the parser assigns the initial syntactic structure on the basis of word category information. These early structural processes are assumed to be subserved by the anterior parts of the left hemisphere, as event-related brain potentials show this area to be maximally activated when phrase structure violations are processed and as circumscribed lesions in this area lead to an impairment of the on-line structural assignment. During the second phase lexical-semantic and verb-argument structure information is processed. This phase is neurophysiologically manifest in a negative component in the event-related brain potential around 400 ms after stimulus onset which is distributed over the left and right temporo-parietal areas when lexical-semantic information is processed and over left anterior areas when verb-argument structure information is processed. During the third phase the parser tries to map the initial syntactic structure onto the available lexical-semantic and verb-argument structure information. In case of an unsuccessful match between the two types of information reanalyses may become necessary. These processes of structural reanalysis are correlated with a centroparietally distributed late positive component in the event-related brain potential.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Occurrence, Distribution, Sources, and Trends of Elevated Chloride Concentrations in the Mississippi River Valley Alluvial Aquifer in Southeastern Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kresse, Timothy M.; Clark, Brian R.

2008-01-01

Water-quality data from approximately 2,500 sites were used to investigate the distribution of chloride concentrations in the Mississippi River Valley alluvial aquifer in southeastern Arkansas. The large volume and areal distribution of the data used for the investigation proved useful in delineating areas of elevated (greater than 100 milligrams per liter) chloride concentrations, assessing potential sources of saline water, and evaluating trends in chloride distribution and concentration over time. Irrigation water containing elevated chloride concentrations is associated with negative effects to rice and soybeans, two of the major crops in Arkansas, and a groundwater chloride concentration of 100 milligrams per liter is recommended as the upper limit for use on rice. As such, accurately delineating areas with high salinity ground water, defining potential sources of chloride, and documenting trends over time is important in assisting the agricultural community in water management. The distribution and range of chloride concentrations in the study area revealed distinct areas of elevated chloride concentrations. Area I includes an elongated, generally northwest-southeast trending band of moderately elevated chloride concentrations in the northern part of the study area. This band of elevated chloride concentrations is approximately 40 miles in length and varies from approximately 2 to 9 miles in width, with a maximum chloride concentration of 360 milligrams per liter. Area II is a narrow, north-south trending band of elevated chloride concentrations in the southern part of the study area, with a maximum chloride concentration of 1,639 milligrams per liter. A zone of chloride concentrations exceeding 200 milligrams per liter is approximately 25 miles in length and 5 to 6 miles in width. In Area I, low chloride concentrations in samples from wells completed in the alluvial aquifer next to the Arkansas River and in samples from the upper Claiborne aquifer, which underlies the alluvial aquifer, indicate that leakage from the river and upward flow of saline water in underlying aquifers are not likely sources for the saline water in the alluvial aquifer in Area I. A good comparison was noted for chloride concentrations in Area I and surface geomorphology. In the majority of cases, elevated chloride concentrations occurred in backswamp deposits, with low concentrations (less than 50 milligrams per liter) in areas of active or abandoned channel deposits. The fine-grained, clay-rich deposits associated with backswamp areas likely restrict recharge, induce increased ratios between evapotranspiration and recharge, and experience minimal flushing of salts concentrated during evapotranspiration. In Area II, chloride isoconcentration maps of the underlying upper Claiborne aquifer, in addition to samples from wells completed in the middle and lower Claiborne aquifers, showed a similar chloride distribution to that of the alluvial aquifer with decreasing chloride concentrations to the east of the zone of elevated chloride concentrations, which suggests a deeper source of saline water that affects Tertiary and Quaternary aquifer systems. Mixing curves developed from bromide/chloride ratios in water samples from the alluvial aquifer, Tertiary aquifers, and samples of brine water from the Jurrasic Smackover Formation additionally discounted upward flow of saline water from underlying Tertiary formations as a potential mechanism for salinity in the alluvial aquifer in Area II. A review of information on oil exploration wells in Chicot County revealed that most of these wells were drilled from 1960 to 1980, after the elevated chloride concentrations were detected in the early 1950s. The elongated nature of the zone of elevated chloride concentrations in Area II suggests a line source or linear conduit connection with the source. Maps of a fractured limestone in the Smackover Formation in Arkansas, Mississippi, and Louisiana for purpose

Identifying potential impact of lead contamination using a geographic information system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bocco, G.; Sanchez, R.

1997-01-01

The main objective of this research was to identify the potential hazards associated with lead contamination from fixed sources in the city of Tijuana. An exploratory model is presented that describes the potential polluting sources as well as the exposed universe. The results of the analysis provide a clear picture of the geographic distribution of hazards areas for potential lead pollution in Tijuana. The findings are indicative of the dramatic consequences of rapid industrialization and urbanization in a city where there have not been significant planning efforts to mitigate the negative effects of this growth. The approach followed helps tomore » narrow the universe of potential pollution sources, which can help to direct attention, research priorities, and resources to the most critical areas. 16 refs.« less

Assessing potential spatial accessibility of health services in rural China: a case study of Donghai county

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Introduction There is a great health services disparity between urban and rural areas in China. The percentage of people who are unable to access health services due to long travel times increases. This paper takes Donghai County as the study unit to analyse areas with physician shortages and characteristics of the potential spatial accessibility of health services. We analyse how the unequal health services resources distribution and the New Cooperative Medical Scheme affect the potential spatial accessibility of health services in Donghai County. We also give some advice on how to alleviate the unequal spatial accessibility of health services in areas that are more remote and isolated. Methods The shortest traffic times of from hospitals to villages are calculated with an O-D matrix of GIS extension model. This paper applies an enhanced two-step floating catchment area (E2SFCA) method to study the spatial accessibility of health services and to determine areas with physician shortages in Donghai County. The sensitivity of the E2SFCA for assessing variation in the spatial accessibility of health services is checked using different impedance coefficient valuesa. Geostatistical Analyst model and spatial analyst method is used to analyse the spatial pattern and the edge effect of potential spatial accessibility of health services. Results The results show that 69% of villages have access to lower potential spatial accessibility of health services than the average for Donghai County, and 79% of the village scores are lower than the average for Jiangsu Province. The potential spatial accessibility of health services diminishes greatly from the centre of the county to outlying areas. Using a smaller impedance coefficient leads to greater disparity among the villages. The spatial accessibility of health services is greater along highway in the county. Conclusions Most of villages are in underserved health services areas. An unequal distribution of health service resources and the reimbursement policies of the New Cooperative Medical Scheme have led to an edge effect regarding spatial accessibility of health services in Donghai County, whereby people living on the edge of the county have less access to health services. Comprehensive measures should be considered to alleviate the unequal spatial accessibility of health services in areas that are more remote and isolated. PMID:23688278

Modeling potential distribution of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus, the Andes virus (Genus: Hantavirus) reservoir, in Argentina.

PubMed

Andreo, Verónica; Glass, Gregory; Shields, Timothy; Provensal, Cecilia; Polop, Jaime

2011-09-01

We constructed a model to predict the potential distribution of Oligoryzomys longicaudatus, the reservoir of Andes virus (Genus: Hantavirus), in Argentina. We developed an extensive database of occurrence records from published studies and our own surveys and compared two methods to model the probability of O. longicaudatus presence; logistic regression and MaxEnt algorithm. The environmental variables used were tree, grass and bare soil cover from MODIS imagery and, altitude and 19 bioclimatic variables from WorldClim database. The models performances were evaluated and compared both by threshold dependent and independent measures. The best models included tree and grass cover, mean diurnal temperature range, and precipitation of the warmest and coldest seasons. The potential distribution maps for O. longicaudatus predicted the highest occurrence probabilities along the Andes range, from 32°S and narrowing southwards. They also predicted high probabilities for the south-central area of Argentina, reaching the Atlantic coast. The Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome cases coincided with mean occurrence probabilities of 95 and 77% for logistic and MaxEnt models, respectively. HPS transmission zones in Argentine Patagonia matched the areas with the highest probability of presence. Therefore, colilargos presence probability may provide an approximate risk of transmission and act as an early tool to guide control and prevention plans.

Including irrigation in niche modelling of the invasive wasp Vespula germanica (Fabricius) improves model fit to predict potential for further spread

PubMed Central

Kriticos, Darren J.; Veldtman, Ruan

2017-01-01

The European wasp, Vespula germanica (Fabricius) (Hymenoptera: Vespidae), is of Palaearctic origin, being native to Europe, northern Africa and Asia, and introduced into North America, Chile, Argentina, Iceland, Ascension Island, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand. Due to its polyphagous nature and scavenging behaviour, V. germanica threatens agriculture and silviculture, and negatively affects biodiversity, while its aggressive nature and venomous sting pose a health risk to humans. In areas with warmer winters and longer summers, queens and workers can survive the winter months, leading to the build-up of large nests during the following season; thereby increasing the risk posed by this species. To prevent or prepare for such unwanted impacts it is important to know where the wasp may be able to establish, either through natural spread or through introduction as a result of human transport. Distribution data from Argentina and Australia, and seasonal phenology data from Argentina were used to determine the potential distribution of V. germanica using CLIMEX modelling. In contrast to previous models, the influence of irrigation on its distribution was also investigated. Under a natural rainfall scenario, the model showed similarities to previous models. When irrigation is applied, dry stress is alleviated, leading to larger areas modelled climatically suitable compared with previous models, which provided a better fit with the actual distribution of the species. The main areas at risk of invasion by V. germanica include western USA, Mexico, small areas in Central America and in the north-western region of South America, eastern Brazil, western Russia, north-western China, Japan, the Mediterranean coastal regions of North Africa, and parts of southern and eastern Africa. PMID:28715452

Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change.

PubMed

Imbach, Pablo; Fung, Emily; Hannah, Lee; Navarro-Racines, Carlos E; Roubik, David W; Ricketts, Taylor H; Harvey, Celia A; Donatti, Camila I; Läderach, Peter; Locatelli, Bruno; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

2017-09-26

Climate change will cause geographic range shifts for pollinators and major crops, with global implications for food security and rural livelihoods. However, little is known about the potential for coupled impacts of climate change on pollinators and crops. Coffee production exemplifies this issue, because large losses in areas suitable for coffee production have been projected due to climate change and because coffee production is dependent on bee pollination. We modeled the potential distributions of coffee and coffee pollinators under current and future climates in Latin America to understand whether future coffee-suitable areas will also be suitable for pollinators. Our results suggest that coffee-suitable areas will be reduced 73-88% by 2050 across warming scenarios, a decline 46-76% greater than estimated by global assessments. Mean bee richness will decline 8-18% within future coffee-suitable areas, but all are predicted to contain at least 5 bee species, and 46-59% of future coffee-suitable areas will contain 10 or more species. In our models, coffee suitability and bee richness each increase (i.e., positive coupling) in 10-22% of future coffee-suitable areas. Diminished coffee suitability and bee richness (i.e., negative coupling), however, occur in 34-51% of other areas. Finally, in 31-33% of the future coffee distribution areas, bee richness decreases and coffee suitability increases. Assessing coupled effects of climate change on crop suitability and pollination can help target appropriate management practices, including forest conservation, shade adjustment, crop rotation, or status quo, in different regions.

Geographic potential of disease caused by Ebola and Marburg viruses in Africa.

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Samy, Abdallah M

2016-10-01

Filoviruses represent a significant public health threat worldwide. West Africa recently experienced the largest-scale and most complex filovirus outbreak yet known, which underlines the need for a predictive understanding of the geographic distribution and potential for transmission to humans of these viruses. Here, we used ecological niche modeling techniques to understand the relationship between known filovirus occurrences and environmental characteristics. Our study derived a picture of the potential transmission geography of Ebola virus species and Marburg, paired with views of the spatial uncertainty associated with model-to-model variation in our predictions. We found that filovirus species have diverged ecologically, but only three species are sufficiently well known that models could be developed with significant predictive power. We quantified uncertainty in predictions, assessed potential for outbreaks outside of known transmission areas, and highlighted the Ethiopian Highlands and scattered areas across East Africa as additional potentially unrecognized transmission areas. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Integrated Warfighter Biodefense Program (IWBP)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-08-01

Distribution. Sincerely, Frank T. Abbott VP of Administration & Finance fta @quantumleap.us cc: Dr. Ganesh Vaidyanathan, Project Manager, Code 34...goals of IWBP. Areas of potential application include health care administration, clinical data analysis and health care research applications

Some aspects of resource uncertainty and their economic consequences in assessment of the 1002 area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Attanasi, E.D.; Schuenemeyer, J.H.

2002-01-01

Exploration ventures in frontier areas have high risks. Before committing to them, firms prepare regional resource assessments to evaluate the potential payoffs. With no historical basis for directly estimating size distribution of undiscovered accumulations, reservoir attribute probability distributions can be assessed subjectively and used to project undiscovered accumulation sizes. Three questions considered here are: (1) what distributions should be used to characterize the subjective assessments of reservoir attributes, (2) how parsimonious can the analyst be when eliciting subjective information from the assessment geologist, and (3) what are consequences of ignoring dependencies among reservoir attributes? The standard or norm used for comparing outcomes is the computed cost function describing costs of finding, developing, and producing undiscovered oil accumulations. These questions are examined in the context of the US Geological Survey's recently published regional assessment of the 1002 Area of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, Alaska. We study effects of using the various common distributions to characterize the geologist's subjective distributions representing reservoir attributes. Specific findings show that triangular distributions result in substantial bias in economic forecasts when used to characterize skewed distributions. Moreover, some forms of the lognormal distribution also result in biased economic inferences. Alternatively, we generally determined four fractiles (100, 50, 5, 0) to be sufficient to capture essential economic characteristics of the underlying attribute distributions. Ignoring actual dependencies among reservoir attributes biases the economic evaluation. ?? 2002 International Association for Mathematical Geology.

Wide area methane emissions mapping with airborne IPDA lidar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartholomew, Jarett; Lyman, Philip; Weimer, Carl; Tandy, William

2017-08-01

Methane emissions from natural gas production, storage, and transportation are potential sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Methane leaks also constitute revenue loss potential from operations. Since 2013, Ball Aerospace has been developing advanced airborne sensors using integrated path differential absorption (IPDA) LIDAR instrumentation to identify methane, propane, and longer-chain alkanes in the lowest region of the atmosphere. Additional funding has come from the U.S. Department of Transportation, Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Administration (PHMSA) to upgrade instrumentation to a broader swath coverage of up to 400 meters while maintaining high spatial sampling resolution and geolocation accuracy. Wide area coverage allows efficient mapping of emissions from gathering and distribution networks, processing facilities, landfills, natural seeps, and other distributed methane sources. This paper summarizes the benefits of advanced instrumentation for aerial methane emission mapping, describes the operating characteristics and design of this upgraded IPDA instrumentation, and reviews technical challenges encountered during development and deployment.

Using Ecological Niche Models and Niche Analyses to Understand Speciation Patterns: The Case of Sister Neotropical Orchid Bees

PubMed Central

Silva, Daniel P.; Vilela, Bruno; De Marco, Paulo; Nemésio, André

2014-01-01

The role of past connections between the two major South American forested biomes on current species distribution has been recognized a long time ago. Climatic oscillations that further separated these biomes have promoted parapatric speciation, in which many species had their continuous distribution split, giving rise to different but related species (i.e., different potential distributions and realized niche features). The distribution of many sister species of orchid bees follow this pattern. Here, using ecological niche models and niche analyses, we (1) tested the role of ecological niche differentiation on the divergence between sister orchid-bees (genera Eulaema and Eufriesea) from the Amazon and Atlantic forests, and (2) highlighted interesting areas for new surveys. Amazonian species occupied different realized niches than their Atlantic sister species. Conversely, species of sympatric but distantly related Eulaema bees occupied similar realized niches. Amazonian species had a wide potential distribution in South America, whereas Atlantic Forest species were more limited to the eastern coast of the continent. Additionally, we identified several areas in need of future surveys. Our results show that the realized niche of Atlantic-Amazonian sister species of orchid bees, which have been previously treated as allopatric populations of three species, had limited niche overlap and similarity. These findings agree with their current taxonomy, which treats each of those populations as distinct valid species. PMID:25422941

Distribution, genetic diversity and potential spatiotemporal scale of alien gene flow in crop wild relatives of rice (Oryza spp.) in Colombia.

PubMed

Thomas, Evert; Tovar, Eduardo; Villafañe, Carolina; Bocanegra, José Leonardo; Moreno, Rodrigo

2017-12-01

Crop wild relatives (CWRs) of rice hold important traits that can contribute to enhancing the ability of cultivated rice (Oryza sativa and O. glaberrima) to produce higher yields, cope with the effects of climate change, and resist attacks of pests and diseases, among others. However, the genetic resources of these species remain dramatically understudied, putting at risk their future availability from in situ and ex situ sources. Here we assess the distribution of genetic diversity of the four rice CWRs known to occur in Colombia (O. glumaepatula, O. alta, O. grandiglumis, and O. latifolia). Furthermore, we estimated the degree of overlap between areas with suitable habitat for cultivated and wild rice, both under current and predicted future climate conditions to assess the potential spatiotemporal scale of potential gene flow from GM rice to its CWRs. Our findings suggest that part of the observed genetic diversity and structure, at least of the most exhaustively sampled species, may be explained by their glacial and post-glacial range dynamics. Furthermore, in assessing the expected impact of climate change and the potential spatiotemporal scale of gene flow between populations of CWRs and GM rice we find significant overlap between present and future suitable areas for cultivated rice and its four CWRs. Climate change is expected to have relatively limited negative effects on the rice CWRs, with three species showing opportunities to expand their distribution ranges in the future. Given (i) the sparse presence of CWR populations in protected areas (ii) the strong suitability overlap between cultivated rice and its four CWRs; and (iii) the complexity of managing and regulating areas to prevent alien gene flow, the first priority should be to establish representative ex situ collections for all CWR species, which currently do not exist. In the absence of studies under field conditions on the scale and extent of gene flow between cultivated rice and its Colombian CWRs, effective in situ conservation might best be achieved through tailor-made management plans and exclusion of GM rice cultivation in areas holding the most genetically diverse CWR populations. This may be combined with assisted migration of populations to suitable areas where rice is unlikely to be cultivated under current and future climate conditions.

Distribution limits of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis: a case study in the Rocky Mountains, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hossack, Blake R.; Muths, Erin L.; Anderson, Chauncey W.; Kirshtein, Julie D.; Corn, P. Stephen

2009-01-01

Knowledge of the environmental constraints on a pathogen is critical to predicting its dynamics and effects on populations. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), an aquatic fungus that has been linked with widespread amphibian declines, is ubiquitous in the Rocky Mountains. As part of assessing the distribution limits of Bd in our study area, we sampled the water column and sediments for Bd zoospores in 30 high-elevation water bodies that lacked amphibians. All water bodies were in areas where Bd has been documented from neighboring, lower-elevation areas. We targeted areas lacking amphibians because existence of Bd independent of amphibians would have both ecologic and management implications. We did not detect Bd, which supports the hypothesis that it does not live independently of amphibians. However, assuming a detection sensitivity of 59.5% (based on sampling of water where amphibians tested positive for Bd), we only had 95% confidence of detecting Bd if it was in > or =16% of our sites. Further investigation into potential abiotic reservoirs is needed, but our results provide a strategic step in determining the distributional and environmental limitations of Bd in our study region.

Some properties of a 5-parameter bivariate probability distribution

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tubbs, J. D.; Brewer, D. W.; Smith, O. E.

1983-01-01

A five-parameter bivariate gamma distribution having two shape parameters, two location parameters and a correlation parameter was developed. This more general bivariate gamma distribution reduces to the known four-parameter distribution. The five-parameter distribution gives a better fit to the gust data. The statistical properties of this general bivariate gamma distribution and a hypothesis test were investigated. Although these developments have come too late in the Shuttle program to be used directly as design criteria for ascent wind gust loads, the new wind gust model has helped to explain the wind profile conditions which cause large dynamic loads. Other potential applications of the newly developed five-parameter bivariate gamma distribution are in the areas of reliability theory, signal noise, and vibration mechanics.

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile.

PubMed

Castillo, Andrea G; Alò, Dominique; González, Benito A; Samaniego, Horacio

2018-01-01

The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco ( Lama guanicoe ), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species ( L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe ). We used maximum entropy to model lineage's climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics.

Change of niche in guanaco (Lama guanicoe): the effects of climate change on habitat suitability and lineage conservatism in Chile

PubMed Central

Castillo, Andrea G.; González, Benito A.

2018-01-01

Background The main goal of this contribution was to define the ecological niche of the guanaco (Lama guanicoe), to describe potential distributional changes, and to assess the relative importance of niche conservatism and divergence processes between the two lineages described for the species (L.g. cacsilensis and L.g. guanicoe). Methods We used maximum entropy to model lineage’s climate niche from 3,321 locations throughout continental Chile, and developed future niche models under climate change for two extreme greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). We evaluated changes of the environmental niche and future distribution of the largest mammal in the Southern Cone of South America. Evaluation of niche conservatism and divergence were based on identity and background similarity tests. Results We show that: (a) the current geographic distribution of lineages is associated with different climatic requirements that are related to the geographic areas where these lineages are located; (b) future distribution models predict a decrease in the distribution surface under both scenarios; (c) a 3% decrease of areal protection is expected if the current distribution of protected areas is maintained, and this is expected to occur at the expense of a large reduction of high quality habitats under the best scenario; (d) current and future distribution ranges of guanaco mostly adhere to phylogenetic niche divergence hypotheses between lineages. Discussion Associating environmental variables with species ecological niche seems to be an important aspect of unveiling the particularities of, both evolutionary patterns and ecological features that species face in a changing environment. We report specific descriptions of how these patterns may play out under the most extreme climate change predictions and provide a grim outlook of the future potential distribution of guanaco in Chile. From an ecological perspective, while a slightly smaller distribution area is expected, this may come with an important reduction of available quality habitats. From the evolutionary perspective, we describe the limitations of this taxon as it experiences forces imposed by climate change dynamics. PMID:29868293

The global distribution of deep-water Antipatharia habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yesson, Chris; Bedford, Faye; Rogers, Alex D.; Taylor, Michelle L.

2017-11-01

Antipatharia are a diverse group of corals with many species found in deep water. Many Antipatharia are habitat for associates, have extreme longevity and some species can occur beyond 8500 m depth. As they are major constituents of'coral gardens', which are Vulnerable Marine Ecosystems (VMEs), knowledge of their distribution and environmental requirements is an important pre-requisite for informed conservation planning particularly where the expense and difficulty of deep-sea sampling prohibits comprehensive surveys. This study uses a global database of Antipatharia distribution data to perform habitat suitability modelling using the Maxent methodology to estimate the global extent of black coral habitat suitability. The model of habitat suitability is driven by temperature but there is notable influence from other variables of topography, surface productivity and oxygen levels. This model can be used to predict areas of suitable habitat, which can be useful for conservation planning. The global distribution of Antipatharia habitat suitability shows a marked contrast with the distribution of specimen observations, indicating that many potentially suitable areas have not been sampled, and that sampling effort has been disproportionate to shallow, accessible areas inside marine protected areas (MPAs). Although 25% of Antipatharia observations are located in MPAs, only 7-8% of predicted suitable habitat is protected, which is short of the Convention on Biological Diversity target to protect 10% of ocean habitats by 2020.

Spatial distribution of Salpa thompsoni in the high Antarctic area off Adélie Land, East Antarctica during the austral summer 2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ono, Atsushi; Moteki, Masato

2017-06-01

The salp Salpa thompsoni has the potential to alter the Southern Ocean ecosystem through competition with krill Euphausia superba. Information on the reproductive status of S. thompsoni in the high Southern Ocean is thus essential to understanding salp population growth and predicting changes in the Southern Ocean ecosystem. We carried out stratified and quantitative sampling from the surface to a depth of 2000 m during the austral summer of 2008 to determine the spatial distribution and population structure of S. thompsoni in the Southern Ocean off Adélie Land. We found two salp species, S. thompsoni and Ihlea racovitzai, with the former being dominant. S. thompsoni was distributed north of the continental slope area, while I. racovitzai was observed in the neritic zone. Mature aggregates and solitary specimens of S. thompsoni were found south of the Southern Boundary of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, suggesting that S. thompsoni is able to complete its life cycle in high Antarctic waters during the austral summer. However, S. thompsoni was sparsely distributed in the continental slope area, and absent south of the Antarctic Slope Front, suggesting that it is less competitive with krill for food in the slope area off Adélie Land, where krill is densely distributed during the austral summer.

Soil Fertility Map for Food Legumes Production Areas in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Ling; Yang, Tao; Redden, Robert; He, Weifeng; Zong, Xuxiao

2016-05-01

Given the limited resources of fossil energy, and the environmental risks of excess fertilizer on crops, it is time to reappraise the potential role of food legume biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) as sources of nitrogen for cropping systems in China. 150 soil samples across 17 provinces and 2 municipalities of China were collected and analyzed. A distribution map of the soil fertilities and their patterns of distribution was constructed. The pH results indicated that soils were neutral to slightly alkaline overall. The soil organic matter (SOM) and the available nitrogen (AN) content were relatively low, while the available phosphorus (AP) and available potassium (AK) contents were from moderate to high. Production areas of food legumes (faba bean, pea, adzuki bean, mung bean and common bean) were clearly separated into 4 soil fertility type clusters. In addition, regions with SOM, AN, AP and AK deficiency, high acidity and high alkalinity were listed as target areas for further soil improvement. The potential was considered for biological nitrogen fixation to substitute for the application of mineral nitrogen fertiliser.

Soil Fertility Map for Food Legumes Production Areas in China

PubMed Central

Li, Ling; Yang, Tao; Redden, Robert; He, Weifeng; Zong, Xuxiao

2016-01-01

Given the limited resources of fossil energy, and the environmental risks of excess fertilizer on crops, it is time to reappraise the potential role of food legume biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) as sources of nitrogen for cropping systems in China. 150 soil samples across 17 provinces and 2 municipalities of China were collected and analyzed. A distribution map of the soil fertilities and their patterns of distribution was constructed. The pH results indicated that soils were neutral to slightly alkaline overall. The soil organic matter (SOM) and the available nitrogen (AN) content were relatively low, while the available phosphorus (AP) and available potassium (AK) contents were from moderate to high. Production areas of food legumes (faba bean, pea, adzuki bean, mung bean and common bean) were clearly separated into 4 soil fertility type clusters. In addition, regions with SOM, AN, AP and AK deficiency, high acidity and high alkalinity were listed as target areas for further soil improvement. The potential was considered for biological nitrogen fixation to substitute for the application of mineral nitrogen fertiliser. PMID:27212262

Regional hydrological models for distributed flash-floods forecasting: towards an estimation of potential impacts and damages

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Le Bihan, Guillaume; Payrastre, Olivier; Gaume, Eric; Pons, Frederic; Moncoulon, David

2016-04-01

Hydrometeorological forecasting is an essential component of real-time flood management. The information it provides is of great help for crisis managers to anticipate the inundations and the associated risks. In the particular case of flash-floods, which may affect a large amount of small watersheds spread over the territory (up to 300 000 km of waterways considering a drained area of 5 km² minimum in France), appropriate flood forecasting systems are still under development. In France, highly distributed hydrological models have been implemented, enabling a real-time assessment of the potential intensity of flash-floods from the records of weather radars: AIGA-hydro system (Lavabre et al., 2005; Javelle et al., 2014), PreDiFlood project (Naulin et al., 2013). The approach presented here aims to go one step further by offering a direct assessment of the potential impacts of the simulated floods on inhabited areas. This approach is based on an a priori analysis of the study area in order (1) to evaluate with a simplified hydraulic approach (DTM treatment) the potentially flooded areas for different discharge levels, and (2) to identify the associated buildings and/or population at risk from geographic databases. This preliminary analysis enables to build an impact model (discharge-impact curve) on each river reach, which is then used to directly estimate the potentially affected assets based on a distributed rainfall runoff model. The overall principle of this approach was already presented at the 8th Hymex workshop. Therefore, the presentation will be here focused on the first validation results in terms of (1) accuracy of flooded areas simulated from DTM treatments, and (2) relevance of estimated impacts. The inundated areas simulated were compared to the European Directive cartography results (where available), showing an overall good correspondence in a large majority of cases, but also very significant errors for approximatively 10% of the river reaches incorporated in the model. The stage/discharge relations obtained at gauging stations were also compared to the real rating curves, showing a very different behavior of the method depending on the local configuration of the considered site. Some developments are now in progress in order to evaluate and validate, as far as possible, the results of the entire simulation chain at the event scale. This work relies on the comparison of simulation results (estimated flood impacts) with insurance losses data (provided by CCR) for several significant past flood events. The first results of this work will be presented.

Distribution of larval fishes related to potential navigation impacts on the upper Mississippi River, pool 7

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holland, L.E.; Sylvester, J.R.

1983-01-01

Ichthyoplankton samples were collected twice monthly during spring and summer 1981 from a variety of habitats in Navigation Pool 7 of the upper Mississippi River. Larval-fish distributions in the pool and variations in those distributions were analyzed relative to potential impacts of increased commercial navigation. Although as many as 66 species of adults have been found in the area (33 considered common), only 17 taxa were identified from our collections. In April and May, most larvae were collected in main-channel and main-channel-border areas next to major expanses of shallow backwaters. White bass Morone chrysops, yellow perch Perca flavescens, and crappies Pomoxis spp. were predominant. Numerous catostomids also were taken. In June and July, most larvae were taken in the lower pool. Freshwater drum Aplodinotus grunniens and gizzard shad Dorosoma cepedianum predominated in these samples, which also included many cyprinids and centrarchids. Diel patterns of abundance varied with species and sampling location. Freshwater drums were more abundant near the surface at midnight than during the day. Common carp Cyprinus carpio were most abundant in collections at dusk, whereas all other cyprinids were most abundant at dusk and dawn. Numbers of gizzard shad also increased slightly at dusk. Total numbers of larvae collected were greatest at dusk in main-channel and main-channel-border samples; backwater areas produced the greatest catches at midnight and dawn. Seasonal, spatial, diel, and species-specific variations in larval fish abundances significantly influenced the proportion of the community potentially vulnerable to increased boat traffic through Pool 7.

Critical metals in manganese nodules from the Cook Islands EEZ, abundances and distributions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hein, James R.; Spinardi, Francesca; Okamoto, Nobuyuki; Mizell, Kira; Thorburn, Darryl; Tawake, Akuila

2015-01-01

Compiled data from a series of four cruises by the Japan International Cooperation Agency and the Mining agency of Japan from 1985 to 2000 were used to generate a map that defines the statistical distribution of nodule abundance throughout the EEZ, except the Manihiki Plateau. The abundance distribution map shows a belt of high nodule abundance (19–45 kg/m2) that starts in the southeast corner of the EEZ, runs northwest, and also bifurcates into a SW trending branch. Small, isolated areas contain abundances of nodules of up to 58 kg/m2. Six ~ 20,000 km2 areas of particularly high abundance were chosen to represent potential exploration areas, and maps for metal concentration were generated to visualize metal distribution and to extrapolate estimated metal tonnages within the six sites and the EEZ as a whole. Grades for Mn, Cu, and Ni are low in CIs nodules in areas of high abundance; however, Ti, Co, and REY show high contents where nodule abundances are high. Of the six areas identified to represent a range of metal contents, one at the northern end of the N-S abundance main belt optimizes the most metals and would yield the highest dry metric tons for Mn (61,002,292), Ni (1,247,834), Mo (186,166), V (356,247), W (30,215), and Zr (195,323). When compared with the Clarion–Clipperton Zone, the CIs nodules show higher nodule abundances (> 25 kg/m2 over ~ 123,844 km2), and are more enriched in the green-tech, high-tech, and energy metals Co, Ti, Te, Nb, REY, Pt, and Zr. The CIs EEZ shows a significant resource potential for these critical metals due to their high prices, high demand, and the high nodule abundance, which will allow for a smaller footprint for a 20-year mine site and therefore smaller environmental impact.

Combining a Climatic Niche Model of an Invasive Fungus with Its Host Species Distributions to Identify Risks to Natural Assets: Puccinia psidii Sensu Lato in Australia

PubMed Central

Kriticos, Darren J.; Morin, Louise; Leriche, Agathe; Anderson, Robert C.; Caley, Peter

2013-01-01

Puccinia psidii sensu lato (s.l.) is an invasive rust fungus threatening a wide range of plant species in the family Myrtaceae. Originating from Central and South America, it has invaded mainland USA and Hawai'i, parts of Asia and Australia. We used CLIMEX to develop a semi-mechanistic global climatic niche model based on new data on the distribution and biology of P. psidii s.l. The model was validated using independent distribution data from recently invaded areas in Australia, China and Japan. We combined this model with distribution data of its potential Myrtaceae host plant species present in Australia to identify areas and ecosystems most at risk. Myrtaceaeous species richness, threatened Myrtaceae and eucalypt plantations within the climatically suitable envelope for P. psidii s.l in Australia were mapped. Globally the model identifies climatically suitable areas for P. psidii s.l. throughout the wet tropics and sub-tropics where moist conditions with moderate temperatures prevail, and also into some cool regions with a mild Mediterranean climate. In Australia, the map of species richness of Myrtaceae within the P. psidii s.l. climatic envelope shows areas where epidemics are hypothetically more likely to be frequent and severe. These hotspots for epidemics are along the eastern coast of New South Wales, including the Sydney Basin, in the Brisbane and Cairns areas in Queensland, and in the coastal region from the south of Bunbury to Esperance in Western Australia. This new climatic niche model for P. psidii s.l. indicates a higher degree of cold tolerance; and hence a potential range that extends into higher altitudes and latitudes than has been indicated previously. The methods demonstrated here provide some insight into the impacts an invasive species might have within its climatically suited range, and can help inform biosecurity policies regarding the management of its spread and protection of valued threatened assets. PMID:23704988

Climate change, humidity, and mortality in the United States

PubMed Central

Barreca, Alan I.

2014-01-01

This paper estimates the effects of humidity and temperature on mortality rates in the United States (c. 1973–2002) in order to provide an insight into the potential health impacts of climate change. I find that humidity, like temperature, is an important determinant of mortality. Coupled with Hadley CM3 climate-change predictions, I project that mortality rates are likely to change little on the aggregate for the United States. However, distributional impacts matter: mortality rates are likely to decline in cold and dry areas, but increase in hot and humid areas. Further, accounting for humidity has important implications for evaluating these distributional effects. PMID:25328254

Niche modeling predictions of the potential distribution of Marmota himalayana, the host animal of plague in Yushu County of Qinghai.

PubMed

Lu, Liang; Ren, Zhoupeng; Yue, Yujuan; Yu, Xiaotao; Lu, Shan; Li, Guichang; Li, Hailong; Wei, Jianchun; Liu, Jingli; Mu, You; Hai, Rong; Yang, Yonghai; Wei, Rongjie; Kan, Biao; Wang, Hu; Wang, Jinfeng; Wang, Zuyun; Liu, Qiyong; Xu, Jianguo

2016-02-24

After the earthquake on 14, April 2010 at Yushu in China, a plague epidemic hosted by Himalayan marmot (Marmota himalayana) became a major public health concern during the reconstruction period. A rapid assessment of the distribution of Himalayan marmot in the area was urgent. The aims of this study were to analyze the relationship between environmental factors and the distribution of burrow systems of the marmot and to predict the distribution of marmots. Two types of marmot burrows (hibernation and temporary) in Yushu County were investigated from June to September in 2011. The location of every burrow was recorded with a global positioning system receiver. An ecological niche model was used to determine the relationship between the burrow occurrence data and environmental variables, such as land surface temperature (LST) in winter and summer, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in winter and summer, elevation, and soil type. The predictive accuracies of the models were assessed by the area under the curve of the receiving operator curve. The models for hibernation and temporary burrows both performed well. The contribution orders of the variables were LST in winter and soil type, NDVI in winter and elevation for the hibernation burrow model, and LST in summer, NDVI in summer, soil type and elevation in the temporary burrow model. There were non-linear relationships between the probability of burrow presence and LST, NDVI and elevation. LST of 14 and 23 °C, NDVI of 0.22 and 0.60, and 4100 m were inflection points. A substantially higher probability of burrow presence was observed in swamp soil and dark felty soil than in other soil types. The potential area for hibernation burrows was 5696 km(2) (37.7% of Yushu County), and the area for temporary burrows was 7711 km(2) (51.0% of Yushu County). The results suggested that marmots preferred warm areas with relatively low altitudes and good vegetation conditions in Yushu County. Based on these results, the present research is useful in understanding the niche selection and distribution pattern of marmots in this region.

Joint Sensing/Sampling Optimization for Surface Drifting Mine Detection with High-Resolution Drift Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

as potential tools for large area detection coverage while being moderately inexpensive (Wettergren, Performance of Search via Track - Before - Detect for...via Track - Before - Detect for Distribute 34 Sensor Networks, 2008). These statements highlight three specific needs to further sensor network research...Bay hydrography. Journal of Marine Systems, 12, 221–236. Wettergren, T. A. (2008). Performance of search via track - before - detect for distributed

Canopy architecture of a walnut orchard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ustin, Susan L.; Martens, Scott N.; Vanderbilt, Vern C.

1991-01-01

A detailed dataset describing the canopy geometry of a walnut orchard was acquired to support testing and comparison of the predictions of canopy microwave and optical inversion models. Measured canopy properties included the quantity, size, and orientation of stems, leaves, and fruit. Eight trees receiving 100 percent of estimated potential evapotranspiration water use and eight trees receiving 33 percent of potential water use were measured. The vertical distributions of stem, leaf, and fruit properties are presented with respect to irrigation treatment. Zenith and probability distributions for stems and leaf normals are presented. These data show that, after two years of reduced irrigation, the trees receiving only 33 percent of their potential water requirement had reduced fruit yields, lower leaf area index, and altered allocation of biomass within the canopy.

Hypsometry and the distribution of high-alpine lakes in the European Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasicek, Günther; Otto, Jan-Christoph; Buckel, Johannes; Keuschnig, Markus

2017-04-01

Climate change strongly affects alpine landscapes. Cold-climate processes shape the terrain in a typical way and ice-free overdeepenings in cirques and glacial valleys as well as different types of moraines favor the formation of lakes. These water bodies act as sediment sinks and high-alpine water storage but may also favor outburst and flooding events. Glacier retreat worldwide is associated with an increasing number and size of high-alpine lakes which implies a concurrent expansion of sediment retention and natural hazard potential. Rising temperatures are regarded to be the major cause for this development, but other factors such as the distribution of area over elevation and glacier erosional and depositional dynamics may play an important role as well. While models of ice flow and glacial erosion are employed to understand the impact of glaciers on mountain landscapes, comprehensive datasets and analyses on the distribution of existing high-alpine lakes are lacking. In this study we present an exhaustive database of natural lakes in the European Alps and analyze lake distribution with respect to hypsometry. We find that the distribution of lake number and lake area over elevation only weakly coincides with hypsometry. Unsurprisingly, largest lakes are often tectonically influenced and located at the fringe of the mountain range and in prominent inter-montane basins. With increasing elevation, however, the number of lakes, lake area and total area decrease until a local minimum is reached around the equilibrium line latitude (ELA) of the last glacial maximum (LGM). Above the LGM ELA, total area further decreases, but lake number and area increase again. A local maximum in lake area coincides with an absolute maximum in lake number between the ELAs of the LGM and the little ice age around 2500 m. We conclude that glacial erosional and depositional dynamics control the distribution and size of high-alpine lakes and thus demand for exceptional attention when predicting future lake development.

Impact Assessment of Mikania Micrantha on Land Cover and Maxent Modeling to Predict its Potential Invasion Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baidar, T.; Shrestha, A. B.; Ranjit, R.; Adhikari, R.; Ghimire, S.; Shrestha, N.

2017-05-01

Mikania micrantha is one of the major invasive alien plant species in tropical moist forest regions of Asia including Nepal. Recently, this weed is spreading at an alarming rate in Chitwan National Park (CNP) and threatening biodiversity. This paper aims to assess the impacts of Mikania micrantha on different land cover and to predict potential invasion sites in CNP using Maxent model. Primary data for this were presence point coordinates and perceived Mikania micrantha cover collected through systematic random sampling technique. Rapideye image, Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission data and bioclimatic variables were acquired as secondary data. Mikania micrantha distribution maps were prepared by overlaying the presence points on image classified by object based image analysis. The overall accuracy of classification was 90 % with Kappa coefficient 0.848. A table depicting the number of sample points in each land cover with respective Mikania micrantha coverage was extracted from the distribution maps to show the impact. The riverine forest was found to be the most affected land cover with 85.98 % presence points and sal forest was found to be very less affected with only 17.02 % presence points. Maxent modeling predicted the areas near the river valley as the potential invasion sites with statistically significant Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUC) value of 0.969. Maximum temperature of warmest month and annual precipitation were identified as the predictor variables that contribute the most to Mikania micrantha's potential distribution.

Use of the Beaufort Sea by king eiders breeding on the North Slope of Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Phillips, Laura M.; Powell, A.N.; Taylor, E.J.; Rexstad, E.A.

2007-01-01

We estimated areas used by king eiders (Somateria spectabilis) in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea, how distributions of used areas varied, and characteristics that explained variation in the number of days spent at sea, to provide regulatory agencies with baseline data needed to minimize impacts of potential offshore oil development. We implanted sixty king eiders with satellite transmitters at nesting areas on the North Slope of Alaska, USA, in 2002-2004. More than 80% of marked eiders spent >2 weeks staging offshore prior to beginning a postbreeding molt migration. During postbreeding staging and migration, male king eiders had much broader distributions in the Alaskan Beaufort Sea than female eiders, which were concentrated in Harrison and Smith Bays. Distribution did not vary by sex during spring migration in the year after marking. Shorter residence times of eiders and deeper water at locations used during spring migration suggest the Alaskan Beaufort Sea might not be as critical a staging area for king eiders during prebreeding as it is postbreeding. Residence time in the Beaufort Sea varied by sex, with female king eiders spending more days at sea than males in spring and during postbreeding. We conclude the Alaskan Beaufort Sea is an important staging area for king eiders during postbreeding, and eider distribution should be considered by managers when mitigating for future offshore development. We recommend future studies examine the importance of spring staging areas outside the Alaskan Beaufort Sea.

Projected future distribution of date palm and its potential use in alleviating micronutrient deficiency.

PubMed

Shabani, Farzin; Kumar, Lalit; Nojoumian, Amir Hadi; Esmaeili, Atefeh; Toghyani, Mehdi

2016-03-15

Micronutrient deficiency develops when nutrient intake does not match nutritional requirements for maintaining healthy tissue and organ functions which may have long-ranging effects on health, learning ability and productivity. Inadequacy of iron, zinc and vitamin A are the most important micronutrient deficiencies. Consumption of a 100 g portion of date flesh from date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) has been reported to meet approximately half the daily dietary recommended intake of these micronutrients. This study investigated the potential distribution of P. dactylifera under future climates to address its potential long-term use as a food commodity to tackle micronutrient deficiencies in some developing countries. Modelling outputs indicated large shifts in areas conducive to date palm cultivation, based on global-scale alteration over the next 60 years. Most of the regions suffering from micronutrient deficiencies were projected to become highly conducive for date palm cultivation. These results could inform strategic planning by government and agricultural organizations by identifying areas to cultivate this nutritionally important crop in the future to support the alleviation of micronutrient deficiencies. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry.

Climate and pH predict the potential range of the invasive apple snail (Pomacea insularum) in the southeastern United States.

PubMed

Byers, James E; McDowell, William G; Dodd, Shelley R; Haynie, Rebecca S; Pintor, Lauren M; Wilde, Susan B

2013-01-01

Predicting the potential range of invasive species is essential for risk assessment, monitoring, and management, and it can also inform us about a species' overall potential invasiveness. However, modeling the distribution of invasive species that have not reached their equilibrium distribution can be problematic for many predictive approaches. We apply the modeling approach of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) that is effective with incomplete, presence-only datasets to predict the distribution of the invasive island apple snail, Pomacea insularum. This freshwater snail is native to South America and has been spreading in the USA over the last decade from its initial introductions in Texas and Florida. It has now been documented throughout eight southeastern states. The snail's extensive consumption of aquatic vegetation and ability to accumulate and transmit algal toxins through the food web heighten concerns about its spread. Our model shows that under current climate conditions the snail should remain mostly confined to the coastal plain of the southeastern USA where it is limited by minimum temperature in the coldest month and precipitation in the warmest quarter. Furthermore, low pH waters (pH <5.5) are detrimental to the snail's survival and persistence. Of particular note are low-pH blackwater swamps, especially Okefenokee Swamp in southern Georgia (with a pH below 4 in many areas), which are predicted to preclude the snail's establishment even though many of these areas are well matched climatically. Our results elucidate the factors that affect the regional distribution of P. insularum, while simultaneously presenting a spatial basis for the prediction of its future spread. Furthermore, the model for this species exemplifies that combining climatic and habitat variables is a powerful way to model distributions of invasive species.

Simulating the effects of climate change on the distribution of an invasive plant, using a high resolution, local scale, mechanistic approach: challenges and insights.

PubMed

Fennell, Mark; Murphy, James E; Gallagher, Tommy; Osborne, Bruce

2013-04-01

The growing economic and ecological damage associated with biological invasions, which will likely be exacerbated by climate change, necessitates improved projections of invasive spread. Generally, potential changes in species distribution are investigated using climate envelope models; however, the reliability of such models has been questioned and they are not suitable for use at local scales. At this scale, mechanistic models are more appropriate. This paper discusses some key requirements for mechanistic models and utilises a newly developed model (PSS[gt]) that incorporates the influence of habitat type and related features (e.g., roads and rivers), as well as demographic processes and propagule dispersal dynamics, to model climate induced changes in the distribution of an invasive plant (Gunnera tinctoria) at a local scale. A new methodology is introduced, dynamic baseline benchmarking, which distinguishes climate-induced alterations in species distributions from other potential drivers of change. Using this approach, it was concluded that climate change, based on IPCC and C4i projections, has the potential to increase the spread-rate and intensity of G. tinctoria invasions. Increases in the number of individuals were primarily due to intensification of invasion in areas already invaded or in areas projected to be invaded in the dynamic baseline scenario. Temperature had the largest influence on changes in plant distributions. Water availability also had a large influence and introduced the most uncertainty in the projections. Additionally, due to the difficulties of parameterising models such as this, the process has been streamlined by utilising methods for estimating unknown variables and selecting only essential parameters. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Impact assessment of a high-speed railway line on species distribution: application to the European tree frog (Hyla arborea) in Franche-Comté.

PubMed

Clauzel, Céline; Girardet, Xavier; Foltête, Jean-Christophe

2013-09-30

The aim of the present work is to assess the potential long-distance effect of a high-speed railway line on the distribution of the European tree frog (Hyla arborea) in eastern France by combining graph-based analysis and species distribution models. This combination is a way to integrate patch-level connectivity metrics on different scales into a predictive model. The approach used is put in place before the construction of the infrastructure and allows areas potentially affected by isolation to be mapped. Through a diachronic analysis, comparing species distribution before and after the construction of the infrastructure, we identify changes in the probability of species presence and we determine the maximum distance of impact. The results show that the potential impact decreases with distance from the high-speed railway line and the largest disturbances occur within the first 500 m. Between 500 m and 3500 m, the infrastructure generates a moderate decrease in the probability of presence with maximum values close to -40%. Beyond 3500 m the average disturbance is less than -10%. The spatial extent of the impact is greater than the dispersal distance of the tree frog, confirming the assumption of the long-distance effect of the infrastructure. This predictive modelling approach appears to be a useful tool for environmental impact assessment and strategic environmental assessment. The results of the species distribution assessment may provide guidance for field surveys and support for conservation decisions by identifying the areas most affected. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating multiple distribution models to guide conservation efforts of an endangered toad

USGS Publications Warehouse

Treglia, Michael L.; Fisher, Robert N.; Fitzgerald, Lee A.

2015-01-01

Species distribution models are used for numerous purposes such as predicting changes in species’ ranges and identifying biodiversity hotspots. Although implications of distribution models for conservation are often implicit, few studies use these tools explicitly to inform conservation efforts. Herein, we illustrate how multiple distribution models developed using distinct sets of environmental variables can be integrated to aid in identification sites for use in conservation. We focus on the endangered arroyo toad (Anaxyrus californicus), which relies on open, sandy streams and surrounding floodplains in southern California, USA, and northern Baja California, Mexico. Declines of the species are largely attributed to habitat degradation associated with vegetation encroachment, invasive predators, and altered hydrologic regimes. We had three main goals: 1) develop a model of potential habitat for arroyo toads, based on long-term environmental variables and all available locality data; 2) develop a model of the species’ current habitat by incorporating recent remotely-sensed variables and only using recent locality data; and 3) integrate results of both models to identify sites that may be employed in conservation efforts. We used a machine learning technique, Random Forests, to develop the models, focused on riparian zones in southern California. We identified 14.37% and 10.50% of our study area as potential and current habitat for the arroyo toad, respectively. Generally, inclusion of remotely-sensed variables reduced modeled suitability of sites, thus many areas modeled as potential habitat were not modeled as current habitat. We propose such sites could be made suitable for arroyo toads through active management, increasing current habitat by up to 67.02%. Our general approach can be employed to guide conservation efforts of virtually any species with sufficient data necessary to develop appropriate distribution models.

Heavy Metal Contamination Assessment and Partition for Industrial and Mining Gathering Areas

PubMed Central

Guan, Yang; Shao, Chaofeng; Ju, Meiting

2014-01-01

Industrial and mining activities have been recognized as the major sources of soil heavy metal contamination. This study introduced an improved Nemerow index method based on the Nemerow and geo-accumulation index. Taking a typical industrial and mining gathering area in Tianjin (China) as example, this study then analyzed the contamination sources as well as the ecological and integrated risks. The spatial distribution of the contamination level and ecological risk were determined using Geographic Information Systems. The results are as follows: (1) Zinc showed the highest contaminant level in the study area; the contamination levels of the other seven heavy metals assessed were relatively lower. (2) The combustion of fossil fuels and emissions from industrial and mining activities were the main sources of contamination in the study area. (3) The overall contamination level of heavy metals in the study area ranged from heavily contaminated to extremely contaminated and showed an uneven distribution. (4) The potential ecological risk showed an uneven distribution, and the overall ecological risk level ranged from low to moderate. This study also emphasized the importance of partition in industrial and mining areas, the extensive application of spatial analysis methods, and the consideration of human health risks in future studies. PMID:25032743

Sleeping sickness in Uganda: revisiting current and historical distributions.

PubMed

Berrang-Ford, Lea; Odiit, Martin; Maiso, Faustin; Waltner-Toews, David; McDermott, John

2006-12-01

Sleeping sickness is a parasitic, vector-borne disease, carried by the tsetse fly and prevalent in sub-Saharan Africa. The disease continues to pose a public health burden in Uganda, which experienced a widespread outbreak in 1900-1920, and a more recent outbreak in 1976-1989. The disease continues to spread to uninfected districts. This paper compares the spatial distributions of sleeping in Uganda for the 1900-1920 outbreak period with current disease foci, and discusses information gaps and implications arising for future research, prevention and control. Population census records for 1911 and sleeping sickness records from Medical and Sanitary Reports of the Ugandan Protectorate for 1905-1936 were extracted from the Uganda Archives. Current sleeping sickness distribution data were provided by the Ministry of Health, Uganda. These were used to develop sleeping sickness distribution maps for comparison between the early 1900s and the early 2000s. The distribution of sleeping sickness from 1905-1920 shows notable differences compared to the current distribution of disease. In particular, archival cases were recorded in south-west and central Uganda, areas currently free of disease. The disease focus has moved from lakeshore Buganda (1905-1920) to the Busoga and south-east districts. Archival sleeping sickness distributions indicate the potential for a much wider area of disease risk than indicated by current disease foci. This is compounded by an absence of tsetse distribution data, continued political instability in north-central Uganda, continued spread of disease into new districts, and evidence of the role of livestock movements in spreading the parasite. These results support concerns as to the potential mergence of the two disease foci in the south-east and north-west of the country.

Determining fine-scale use and movement patterns of diving bird species in federal waters of the Mid-Atlantic United States using satellite telemetry

USGS Publications Warehouse

Spiegel, Caleb; Berlin, Alicia; Gilbert, Andrew; Gray, Carrie E.; Montevecchi, William; Stenhouse, Iain; Ford, Scott; Olsen, Glenn H.; Fiely, Jonathan; Savoy, Lucas; Goodale, M. Wing; Burke, Chantelle

2017-01-01

Offshore wind energy development in the United States is projected to expand in the upcoming decades to meet growing energy demands and reduce fossil fuel emissions. There is particular interest in commercial offshore wind development within Federal waters (i.e., > 3 nautical miles from shore) of the mid-Atlantic. In order to understand the potential for adverse effects on marine birds in this area, information on distribution and behavior (e.g., flight pathways, timing, etc.) is required for a broad suite of species. In areas where offshore wind development is likely to occur, such information can be used to identify high use areas during critical life stages, which can inform the siting of offshore facilities. It can also be used to provide baseline data for understanding broad changes in distributions that occur after offshore wind developments are constructed in a specific area.

Plastic litter in sediments from a marine area likely to become protected (Aeolian Archipelago's islands, Tyrrhenian sea).

PubMed

Fastelli, Paolo; Blašković, Andrea; Bernardi, Giulia; Romeo, Teresa; Čižmek, Hrvoje; Andaloro, Franco; Russo, Giovanni F; Guerranti, Cristiana; Renzi, Monia

2016-12-15

This research aims to define for the first time levels and patterns of different litter groups (macro, meso and microplastics) in sediments from a marine area designed for the institution of a new marine protected area (Aeolian Archipelago, Italy). Microplastics resulted the principal group and found in all samples analyzed, with shape and colours variable between different sampling sites. MPs levels measured in this study are similar to values recorded in harbour sites and lower than reported in Adriatic Sea, while macroplastics levels are notably lower than in harbor sites. Sediment grain-size and island extent resulted not significant in determining levels and distribution of plastic debris among islands. In the future, following the establishment of the MPA in the study area, these basic data will be useful to check for potential protective effects on the levels and distribution of plastic debris. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A geographical information system-based multicriteria evaluation to map areas at risk for Rift Valley fever vector-borne transmission in Italy.

PubMed

Tran, A; Ippoliti, C; Balenghien, T; Conte, A; Gely, M; Calistri, P; Goffredo, M; Baldet, T; Chevalier, V

2013-11-01

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a severe mosquito-borne disease that is caused by a Phlebovirus (Bunyaviridae) and affects domestic ruminants and humans. Recently, its distribution widened, threatening Europe. The probability of the introduction and large-scale spread of Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) in Europe is low, but localized RVF outbreaks may occur in areas where populations of ruminants and potential vectors are present. In this study, we assumed the introduction of the virus into Italy and focused on the risk of vector-borne transmission of RVFV to three main European potential hosts (cattle, sheep and goats). Five main potential mosquito vectors belonging to the Culex and Aedes genera that are present in Italy were identified in a literature review. We first modelled the geographical distribution of these five species based on expert knowledge and using land cover as a proxy of mosquito presence. The mosquito distribution maps were compared with field mosquito collections from Italy to validate the model. Next, the risk of RVFV transmission was modelled using a multicriteria evaluation (MCE) approach, integrating expert knowledge and the results of a literature review on host sensitivity and vector competence, feeding behaviour and abundance. A sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the robustness of the results with respect to expert choices. The resulting maps include (i) five maps of the vector distribution, (ii) a map of suitable areas for vector-borne transmission of RVFV and (iii) a map of the risk of RVFV vector-borne transmission to sensitive hosts given a viral introduction. Good agreement was found between the modelled presence probability and the observed presence or absence of each vector species. The resulting RVF risk map highlighted strong spatial heterogeneity and could be used to target surveillance. In conclusion, the geographical information system (GIS)-based MCE served as a valuable framework and a flexible tool for mapping the areas at risk of a pathogen that is currently absent from a region. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

The phytogeography and ecotourism potential of the eastern province of lower part of the "Köprü river" basin.

PubMed

Kaya, Bastürk; Akis, Ayhan

2012-04-01

Köprü River Basin is located in the western Taurus mountains in south-western Turkey. The area is in the Mediterranean phytogeographical region. The climate in the area is typically Mediterranean: mild and rainy in winter, hot and dry in summer. Xerophytic plants can easily grow in this climate. Pinus brutia forests are common in the study area. Maquis and garique elements with sclerophyll character also occur in the region. The study aims to determine the distribution of the vegetation in the eastern province of lower part of the "Köprü River" Basin. The factors which affect the distribution of vegetation are climate, landforms and soils. In order to determine the plant growth and climate relationship, the climatic data were analyzed. As well as the geological and geomorphological conditions, the soils were investigated and the effects of these factors on vegetation cover were analyzed. The region also has various attributes for the development of ecotourism, including canyons, forests and historical places. The region has a great potential for many different social, cultural, and scientific activities related to ecotourism. These are highland tourism, rafting, botanic tourism, trekking, and climbing. In order to make ecotourism available for local people to benefit, ecotourism should be developed and introduced to the world. Moreover, plans for the sustainability of the resources should be made. The study highlights the ecotourism potential of the area which is of social, economic, and ecological importance for the region.

A continental scale trophic cascade from wolves through coyotes to foxes.

PubMed

Newsome, Thomas M; Ripple, William J

2015-01-01

Top-down processes, via the direct and indirect effects of interspecific competitive killing (no consumption of the kill) or intraguild predation (consumption of the kill), can potentially influence the spatial distribution of terrestrial predators, but few studies have demonstrated the phenomenon at a continental scale. For example, in North America, grey wolves Canis lupus are known to kill coyotes Canis latrans, and coyotes, in turn, may kill foxes Vulpes spp., but the spatial effects of these competitive interactions at large scales are unknown. Here, we analyse fur return data across eight jurisdictions in North America to test whether the presence or absence of wolves has caused a continent-wide shift in coyote and red fox Vulpes vulpes density. Our results support the existence of a continental scale cascade whereby coyotes outnumber red foxes in areas where wolves have been extirpated by humans, whereas red foxes outnumber coyotes in areas where wolves are present. However, for a distance of up to 200 km on the edge of wolf distribution, there is a transition zone where the effects of top-down control are weakened, possibly due to the rapid dispersal and reinvasion capabilities of coyotes into areas where wolves are sporadically distributed or at low densities. Our results have implications for understanding how the restoration of wolf populations across North America could potentially affect co-occurring predators and prey. We conclude that large carnivores may need to occupy large continuous areas to facilitate among-carnivore cascades and that studies of small areas may not be indicative of the effects of top-down mesopredator control. © 2014 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2014 British Ecological Society.

Total and settling velocity-fractionated pollution potential of sewer sediments in Jiaxing, China.

PubMed

Zhou, Yongchao; Zhang, Ping; Zhang, Yiping; Li, Jin; Zhang, Tuqiao; Yu, Tingchao

2017-10-01

Sewer sediments and their associated contaminant released along with wet-weather discharges pose potential pollution risks to environment. This paper presents total characteristics of sediments collected from Jiaxing, China. Size distribution and concentrations of volatile solids (VS) and four metals (Pb, Cu, Zn, Cr) of sediment samples from seven land use categories were analyzed. Then, the sediment samples were graded five fractions according to its settling velocity through the custom-built settling velocity-grading device. Sediment mass and pollution load distribution based on settling velocity were also assessed. The results show that there are relatively high level of heavy metal load in the sediment of separated storm drainage systems in Jiaxing, especially for the catchment of residential area (RA), road of developed area (RDA), and industrial area (IA). Although grain size follows a trend of increasing along with settling velocity, the methods of settling velocity grading are meaningful for stormwater treatment facilities with precipitation. For all land use categories, the pollution concentrations of the three lower settling velocity-fractionated sediment are relatively consistent and higher than others. Combined with mass distribution, the pollution percentage of fraction with different velocities for seven land use categories were also evaluated. Based on it, the statistical conclusion of design target settling velocity to different pollution load removal rates are drawn, which is helpful to guide design of on-site precipitation separation facilities.

SPECIES RICHNESS AND BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION PRIORITIES IN BRITISH COLUMBIA

EPA Science Inventory

Patterns in the geographic distribution of seven species groups were used to identify important areas for conservation in British Columbia, Canada. Potential priority sites for conservation were determined using an integer programming algorithm that maximized the number of speci...

Distribution and diversity of twelve Curcuma species in China.

PubMed

Zhang, Lanyue; Wei, Jingwen; Yang, Zhiwen; Chen, Feng; Xian, Qiqiu; Su, Ping; Pan, Wanyi; Zhang, Kun; Zheng, Xi; Du, Zhiyun

2018-02-01

Genus Curcuma a wild species presents an important source of valuable characters for improving the cultivated Curcuma varieties. Based on the collected germplasms, herbariums, field surveys and other literatures, the ecogeographical diversity of Genus Curcuma and its potential distributions under the present and future climate are analysed by DIVA-GIS. The results indicate Genus Curcuma is distributed over 17 provinces in China, and particularly abundant in Guangxi and Guangdong provinces. The simulated current distributions are close to the actual distribution regions. In the future climate, the suitable areas for four Curcuma species will be extended, while for other three species the regions will be significantly decreased, and thus these valuable resources need protecting.

Effect of temperature on the phenology of Chilo partellus (Swinhoe) (Lepidoptera, Crambidae); simulation and visualization of the potential future distribution of C. partellus in Africa under warmer temperatures through the development of life-table parameters.

PubMed

Khadioli, N; Tonnang, Z E H; Muchugu, E; Ong'amo, G; Achia, T; Kipchirchir, I; Kroschel, J; Le Ru, B

2014-12-01

Maize (Zea mays) is a major staple food in Africa. However, maize production is severely reduced by damage caused by feeding lepidopteran pests. In East and Southern Africa, Chilo partellus is one of the most damaging cereal stem borers mainly found in the warmer lowland areas. In this study, it was hypothesized that the future distribution and abundance of C. partellus may be affected greatly by the current global warming. The temperature-dependent population growth potential of C. partellus was studied on artificial diet under laboratory conditions at six constant temperatures (15, 18, 20, 25, 28, 30, 32 and 35 °C), relative humidity of 75±5% and a photoperiod of L12:L12 h. Several non-linear models were fitted to the data to model development time, mortality and reproduction of the insect species. Cohort updating algorithm and rate summation approach were stochastically used for simulating age and stage structure populations and generate life-table parameters. For spatial analysis of the pest risk, three generic risk indices (index of establishment, generation number and activity index) were visualized in the geographical information system component of the advanced Insect Life Cycle modeling (ILCYM) software. To predict the future distribution of C. partellus we used the climate change scenario A1B obtained from WorldClim and CCAFS databases. The maps were compared with available data on the current distribution of C. partellus in Kenya. The results show that the development times of the different stages decreased with increasing temperatures ranging from 18 to 35 °C; at the extreme temperatures, 15 and 38 °C, no egg could hatch and no larvae completed development. The study concludes that C. partellus may potentially expands its range into higher altitude areas, highland tropics and moist transitional regions, with the highest maize potential where the species has not been recorded yet. This has serious implication in terms of food security since these areas produce approximately 80% of the total maize in East Africa.

Distribution and transfer of potentially toxic metal(loid)s in Juncus effusus from the indigenous zinc smelting area, northwest region of Guizhou Province, China.

PubMed

Peng, Yishu; Chen, Jun; Wei, Huairui; Li, Shibin; Jin, Tao; Yang, Ruidong

2018-05-15

We collected samples (i.e., the aerial parts and roots of Juncus effusus and their growth media) in the indigenous zinc smelting area in the northwest region of Guizhou Province, China, and we measured and analyzed potentially toxic metal(loid)s (arsenic, As; cadmium, Cd; chromium, Cr; copper, Cu; mercury, Hg; lead, Pb and zinc, Zn) in these samples. The results include the following: First, there is a high concentration of one or more potentially toxic metal(loid)s in the slag and surrounding soil in the research area. This situation might be caused by metal(loid) damage or contamination due to the circumstances. Additionally, Juncus effusus in the indigenous zinc smelting area are contaminated by some potentially toxic metal(loid)s; since they are used for Chinese medical materials, it is especially significant that their As, Cd and Pb concentrations are greater than their limited standard values. Finally, both the bioconcentration factors and transfer factors for most potentially toxic metal(loid)s in Juncus effusus are less than 1 in the study area. Therefore, we suggest that Juncus effusus could be used for phytostabilization or as a pioneer plant for phytoremediation of potentially toxic metal(loid)s because it has a tolerance and exclusion mechanism for these metal(loid)s in the research district. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determining accessibility to dermatologists and teledermatology locations in Kentucky: demonstration of an innovative geographic information systems approach.

PubMed

Shannon, Gary William; Buker, Carol Marie

2010-01-01

Teledermatology provides a partial solution to the problem of accessibility to dermatology services in underserved areas, yet methodologies to determine the locations and geographic dimensions of these areas and the locational efficiency of remote teledermatology sites have been found wanting. This article illustrates an innovative Geographic Information Systems approach using dermatologists' addresses, U.S. Census population data, and the Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing System. Travel-time-based service areas were calculated and mapped for each dermatologist in the state of Kentucky and for possible locations of several remote teledermatology sites. Populations within the current and possible remote service areas were determined. These populations and associated maps permit assessment of the locational efficiency of the current distribution of dermatologists, location of underserved areas, and the potential contribution of proposed hypothetical teledermatology sites. This approach is a valuable and practical tool for evaluating access to current distributions of dermatologists as well as planning for and implementing teledermatology.

Hot spot analysis applied to identify ecosystem services potential in Lithuania

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pereira, Paulo; Depellegrin, Daniel; Misiune, Ieva

2016-04-01

Hot spot analysis are very useful to identify areas with similar characteristics. This is important for a sustainable use of the territory, since we can identify areas that need to be protected, or restored. This is a great advantage in terms of land use planning and management, since we can allocate resources, reduce the economical costs and do a better intervention in the landscape. Ecosystem services (ES) are different according land use. Since landscape is very heterogeneous, it is of major importance understand their spatial pattern and where are located the areas that provide better ES and the others that provide less services. The objective of this work is to use hot-spot analysis to identify areas with the most valuable ES in Lithuania. CORINE land-cover (CLC) of 2006 was used as the main spatial information. This classification uses a grid of 100 m resolution and extracted a total of 31 land use types. ES ranking was carried out based on expert knowledge. They were asked to evaluate the ES potential of each different CLC from 0 (no potential) to 5 (very high potential). Hot spot analysis were evaluated using the Getis-ord test, which identifies cluster analysis available in ArcGIS toolbox. This tool identifies areas with significantly high low values and significant high values at a p level of 0.05. In this work we used hot spot analysis to assess the distribution of providing, regulating cultural and total (sum of the previous 3) ES. The Z value calculated from Getis-ord was used to statistical analysis to access the clusters of providing, regulating cultural and total ES. ES with high Z value show that they have a high number of cluster areas with high potential of ES. The results showed that the Z-score was significantly different among services (Kruskal Wallis ANOVA =834. 607, p<0.001). The Z score of providing services (0.096±2.239) were significantly higher than the total (0.093±2.045), cultural (0.080±1.979) and regulating (0.076±1.961). These results suggested that providing services are more clustered than the remaining. Ecosystem Services Z score were significantly correlated, regulating vs total (0.98, p<0.0001), regulating vs cultural (0.97, p<0.0001), cultural vs total (0.96, p<0.0001), providing vs total (0.69, p<0.0001), regulating vs providing (0.56, p<0.0001) and providing vs cultural (0.56, p<0.0001). According to these results, ES distribution potential showed a similar pattern, especially regulating, cultural and total. This an evidence that the the areas that showed high and low significant regulating and cultural ES clusters are similar. The spatial distribution of these clusters is very high, which may be attributed to the landscape diversity and fragmentation.

Integrating species distribution models (SDMs) and phylogeography for two species of Alpine Primula

PubMed Central

Schorr, G; Holstein, N; Pearman, P B; Guisan, A; Kadereit, J W

2012-01-01

The major intention of the present study was to investigate whether an approach combining the use of niche-based palaeodistribution modeling and phylo-geography would support or modify hypotheses about the Quaternary distributional history derived from phylogeographic methods alone. Our study system comprised two closely related species of Alpine Primula. We used species distribution models based on the extant distribution of the species and last glacial maximum (LGM) climate models to predict the distribution of the two species during the LGM. Phylogeographic data were generated using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). In Primula hirsuta, models of past distribution and phylogeographic data are partly congruent and support the hypothesis of widespread nunatak survival in the Central Alps. Species distribution models (SDMs) allowed us to differentiate between alpine regions that harbor potential nunatak areas and regions that have been colonized from other areas. SDMs revealed that diversity is a good indicator for nunataks, while rarity is a good indicator for peripheral relict populations that were not source for the recolonization of the inner Alps. In P. daonensis, palaeo-distribution models and phylogeographic data are incongruent. Besides the uncertainty inherent to this type of modeling approach (e.g., relatively coarse 1-km grain size), disagreement of models and data may partly be caused by shifts of ecological niche in both species. Nevertheless, we demonstrate that the combination of palaeo-distribution modeling with phylogeographical approaches provides a more differentiated picture of the distributional history of species and partly supports (P. hirsuta) and partly modifies (P. daonensis and P. hirsuta) hypotheses of Quaternary distributional history. Some of the refugial area indicated by palaeodistribution models could not have been identified with phylogeographic data. PMID:22833799

Projected range contractions of European protected oceanic montane plant communities: focus on climate change impacts is essential for their future conservation.

PubMed

Hodd, Rory L; Bourke, David; Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

2014-01-01

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities' long-term survival.

Projected Range Contractions of European Protected Oceanic Montane Plant Communities: Focus on Climate Change Impacts Is Essential for Their Future Conservation

PubMed Central

Skeffington, Micheline Sheehy

2014-01-01

Global climate is rapidly changing and while many studies have investigated the potential impacts of this on the distribution of montane plant species and communities, few have focused on those with oceanic montane affinities. In Europe, highly sensitive bryophyte species reach their optimum occurrence, highest diversity and abundance in the north-west hyperoceanic regions, while a number of montane vascular plant species occur here at the edge of their range. This study evaluates the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of these species and assesses the implications for EU Habitats Directive-protected oceanic montane plant communities. We applied an ensemble of species distribution modelling techniques, using atlas data of 30 vascular plant and bryophyte species, to calculate range changes under projected future climate change. The future effectiveness of the protected area network to conserve these species was evaluated using gap analysis. We found that the majority of these montane species are projected to lose suitable climate space, primarily at lower altitudes, or that areas of suitable climate will principally shift northwards. In particular, rare oceanic montane bryophytes have poor dispersal capacity and are likely to be especially vulnerable to contractions in their current climate space. Significantly different projected range change responses were found between 1) oceanic montane bryophytes and vascular plants; 2) species belonging to different montane plant communities; 3) species categorised according to different biomes and eastern limit classifications. The inclusion of topographical variables in addition to climate, significantly improved the statistical and spatial performance of models. The current protected area network is projected to become less effective, especially for specialised arctic-montane species, posing a challenge to conserving oceanic montane plant communities. Conservation management plans need significantly greater focus on potential climate change impacts, including models with higher-resolution species distribution and environmental data, to aid these communities' long-term survival. PMID:24752011

A Winter Distribution Model for Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli), a Conservation Tool for a Threatened Migratory Songbird

PubMed Central

McFarland, Kent P.; Rimmer, Christopher C.; Goetz, James E.; Aubry, Yves; Wunderle, Joseph M.; Sutton, Anne; Townsend, Jason M.; Sosa, Alejandro Llanes; Kirkconnell, Arturo

2013-01-01

Conservation planning and implementation require identifying pertinent habitats and locations where protection and management may improve viability of targeted species. The winter range of Bicknell’s Thrush (Catharus bicknelli), a threatened Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird, is restricted to the Greater Antilles. We analyzed winter records from the mid-1970s to 2009 to quantitatively evaluate winter distribution and habitat selection. Additionally, we conducted targeted surveys in Jamaica (n = 433), Cuba (n = 363), Dominican Republic (n = 1,000), Haiti (n = 131) and Puerto Rico (n = 242) yielding 179 sites with thrush presence. We modeled Bicknell’s Thrush winter habitat selection and distribution in the Greater Antilles in Maxent version 3.3.1. using environmental predictors represented in 30 arc second study area rasters. These included nine landform, land cover and climatic variables that were thought a priori to have potentially high predictive power. We used the average training gain from ten model runs to select the best subset of predictors. Total winter precipitation, aspect and land cover, particularly broadleaf forests, emerged as important variables. A five-variable model that contained land cover, winter precipitation, aspect, slope, and elevation was the most parsimonious and not significantly different than the models with more variables. We used the best fitting model to depict potential winter habitat. Using the 10 percentile threshold (>0.25), we estimated winter habitat to cover 33,170 km2, nearly 10% of the study area. The Dominican Republic contained half of all potential habitat (51%), followed by Cuba (15.1%), Jamaica (13.5%), Haiti (10.6%), and Puerto Rico (9.9%). Nearly one-third of the range was found to be in protected areas. By providing the first detailed predictive map of Bicknell’s Thrush winter distribution, our study provides a useful tool to prioritize and direct conservation planning for this and other wet, broadleaf forest specialists in the Greater Antilles. PMID:23326554

New insights into the distribution and conservation status of the Golden-White Tassel-Ear Marmoset Mico chrysoleucos (Primates, Callitrichidae).

PubMed

Silva, Felipe Ennes; Endo, Whaldener; de Sousa E Silva Júnior, José; Dos Santos Junior, Marcelo A; Sampaio, Ricardo; Röhe, Fabio

2018-05-04

Among the 13 Mico species recognized by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, six are listed as "Data Deficient". The geographic range of most of the Mico species has been estimated from only a few records. We report new localities and the geographic extension of Mico chrysoleucos. In addition, we confirmed the presence of the species in two distinct protected areas. We modeled the habitat suitability of M. chrysoleucos using the maximum entropy method and including new records obtained by the authors in the state of Amazonas, Brazil. From the total area of occurrence calculated for the species, 22.8% is covered by protected areas and indigenous lands. The annual mean deforestation rate estimated between 2000 and 2015 was 2.95%, and the total area deforested by 2015 was 3354 km 2 or 8.6% of the total distribution limits of the species. The habitat lost between 2000 and 2015 was 3.2% (1131 km 2 ) of the total potential distribution, while the habitat loss area legally protected was 31 km 2 , and the habitat loss in settlements was equal to 691 km 2 . Our results extend the geographic distribution of the species about 100 km farther south, with the Maracanã River being a possible geographic barrier for the species. The significantly low rate of habitat loss inside protected areas and indigenous land, when compared to unprotected areas, points out the importance of these areas to M. chrysoleucos conservation. The species is relatively wide-ranging, legally protected, and resilient to regional anthropic threats. However, the hydroelectric schemes and the improvement of the road system in southern Amazonia pose an imminent threat to the species.

Changes in distributional patterns of plaice Pleuronectes platessa in the central and eastern North Sea; do declining nutrient loadings play a role?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Støttrup, Josianne G.; Munk, Peter; Kodama, Masashi; Stedmon, Colin

2017-09-01

Since the beginning of the 1990s, there has been a change in the relative distribution of smaller age-classes of plaice Pleuronectes platessa (age 1-3) in the North Sea. The abundances have increased in deeper, more offshore areas, while coastal abundances have been stagnant or declining. For the same time period available time series data on nutrient conditions in the coastal North Sea area show that the freshwater nitrogen loading has decreased by about 50%. While nutrient concentrations in the ambient environment have been shown to influence growth in juvenile plaice through influence on their prey, we here inspect the potential linkage between distributional changes in plaice and the decline in nutrient loading. We compare plaice observations in coastal areas in the eastern North Sea, which have experienced large changes in eutrophication, with observations for the Dogger Bank, a large sandbank in a shallow offshore area of the North Sea. The Dogger Bank, was used as a reference location assuming this area has been less influenced from coastal eutrophication but similar regional climate conditions, and here we found no changes in the abundances of juvenile plaice. The increase in the use of offshore habitats as nursery areas by juvenile plaice in the North Sea appears not related to water depth per se but driven by specific processes dominating in near-shore areas and may be related to changes in nutrient loadings. This point to the importance of separating more general depth-related factors from conditions specific for near-shore areas, such as nutrient loadings in coastal waters and export offshore. The concurrent changes in environment and in distribution of juvenile plaice may have implications for environmental and fisheries management.

Draft Environmental Impact Statement. MX Deployment Area Selection and Land Withdrawal/Acquisition DEIS. Volume IV. Part II. Environmental Consequences to the Study Regions and Operating Base Vicinities.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-12-01

desert tortoise distribution at Coyote Spring OB and vicinity. 4-179 4.3.1.9-3 Utah Prairie Dog distribution and Proposed Action conceptual project...layout. 4-185 4.3.1.9-4 Distribution of Utah prairie dog in the vicinity of the Milford OB. 4-187 4.3.1.9-5 Distribution of Utah prairie dog in the...Coyote Spring. 4-180 4.3.1.9-2 Potential impact to the Utah prairie dog around operating bases (OBs) for the Proposed Action and Alternatives 1-8. 4-188

Interacting Social and Environmental Predictors for the Spatial Distribution of Conservation Lands

PubMed Central

Baldwin, Robert F.; Leonard, Paul B.

2015-01-01

Conservation decisions should be evaluated for how they meet conservation goals at multiple spatial extents. Conservation easements are land use decisions resulting from a combination of social and environmental conditions. An emerging area of research is the evaluation of spatial distribution of easements and their spatial correlates. We tested the relative influence of interacting social and environmental variables on the spatial distribution of conservation easements by ownership category and conservation status. For the Appalachian region of the United States, an area with a long history of human occupation and complex land uses including public-private conservation, we found that settlement, economic, topographic, and environmental data associated with spatial distribution of easements (N = 4813). Compared to random locations, easements were more likely to be found in lower elevations, in areas of greater agricultural productivity, farther from public protected areas, and nearer other human features. Analysis of ownership and conservation status revealed sources of variation, with important differences between local and state government ownerships relative to non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and among U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) GAP program status levels. NGOs were more likely to have easements nearer protected areas, and higher conservation status, while local governments held easements closer to settlement, and on lands of greater agricultural potential. Logistic interactions revealed environmental variables having effects modified by social correlates, and the strongest predictors overall were social (distance to urban area, median household income, housing density, distance to land trust office). Spatial distribution of conservation lands may be affected by geographic area of influence of conservation groups, suggesting that multi-scale conservation planning strategies may be necessary to satisfy local and regional needs for reserve networks. Our results support previous findings and provide an ecoregion-scale view that conservation easements may provide, at local scales, conservation functions on productive, more developable lands. Conservation easements may complement functions of public protected areas but more research should examine relative landscape-level ecological functions of both forms of protection. PMID:26465155

Novel Data on the Ecology of Cochranella mache (Anura: Centrolenidae) and the Importance of Protected Areas for This Critically Endangered Glassfrog in the Neotropics

PubMed Central

Ortega-Andrade, H. Mauricio; Rojas-Soto, Octavio; Paucar, Christian

2013-01-01

We studied a population of the endangered glassfrog, Cochranella mache, at Bilsa Biological Station, northwestern Ecuador, from 2008 and 2009. We present information on annual abundance patterns, behavioral ecology, habitat use and a species distribution model performed with MaxEnt. We evaluate the importance of the National System of Protected Areas (SNAP) in Colombia and Ecuador, under scenarios of climate change and habitat loss. We predicted a restricted environmental suitability area from 48,509 Km2 to 65,147 Km2 along western Ecuador and adjacent Colombia; ∼8% of the potential distribution occurs within SNAP. We examined four aspects of C. mache ecology: (1) ecological data suggests a strong correlation between relative abundance and rainfall, with a high probability to observe frogs through rainy months (February–May); (2) habitat use and the species distribution model suggest that this canopy dweller is restricted to small streams and rivulets in primary and old secondary forest in evergreen lowland and piedmont forest of western Ecuador, with predictions of suitability areas in adjacent southern Colombia; (3) the SNAP of Colombia and Ecuador harbor a minimum portion of the predicted model of distribution (<10%); and (4) synergetic effects of habitat loss and climate change reduces in about 95% the suitability areas for this endangered frog along its distributional range in Protected Areas. The resulting model allows the recognition of areas to undertake conservation efforts and plan future field surveys, as well as forecasting regions with high probability of C. mache occurrence in western Ecuador and southern Colombia. Further research is required to assess population tendencies, habitat fragmentation and target survey zones to accelerate the discovery of unknown populations in unexplored areas with high probability of suitability. We recommend that Cochranella mache must be re-categorized as “Critically Endangered” species in national and global status, according with criteria and sub-criteria A4, B1ab(i,ii,iii,iv),E. PMID:24339973

Interacting Social and Environmental Predictors for the Spatial Distribution of Conservation Lands.

PubMed

Baldwin, Robert F; Leonard, Paul B

2015-01-01

Conservation decisions should be evaluated for how they meet conservation goals at multiple spatial extents. Conservation easements are land use decisions resulting from a combination of social and environmental conditions. An emerging area of research is the evaluation of spatial distribution of easements and their spatial correlates. We tested the relative influence of interacting social and environmental variables on the spatial distribution of conservation easements by ownership category and conservation status. For the Appalachian region of the United States, an area with a long history of human occupation and complex land uses including public-private conservation, we found that settlement, economic, topographic, and environmental data associated with spatial distribution of easements (N = 4813). Compared to random locations, easements were more likely to be found in lower elevations, in areas of greater agricultural productivity, farther from public protected areas, and nearer other human features. Analysis of ownership and conservation status revealed sources of variation, with important differences between local and state government ownerships relative to non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and among U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) GAP program status levels. NGOs were more likely to have easements nearer protected areas, and higher conservation status, while local governments held easements closer to settlement, and on lands of greater agricultural potential. Logistic interactions revealed environmental variables having effects modified by social correlates, and the strongest predictors overall were social (distance to urban area, median household income, housing density, distance to land trust office). Spatial distribution of conservation lands may be affected by geographic area of influence of conservation groups, suggesting that multi-scale conservation planning strategies may be necessary to satisfy local and regional needs for reserve networks. Our results support previous findings and provide an ecoregion-scale view that conservation easements may provide, at local scales, conservation functions on productive, more developable lands. Conservation easements may complement functions of public protected areas but more research should examine relative landscape-level ecological functions of both forms of protection.

Flaviviruses, an expanding threat in public health: focus on Dengue, West Nile, and Japanese encephalitis virus

PubMed Central

Daep, Carlo Amorin; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L.; Eugenin, Eliseo Alberto

2014-01-01

The flaviviruses Dengue, West Nile, and Japanese encephalitis represent three major mosquito-borne viruses worldwide. These pathogens impact the lives of millions of individuals and potentially could affect non-endemic areas already colonized by mosquito vectors. Unintentional transport of infected vectors (Aedes and Culex sp), traveling within endemic areas, rapid adaptation of the insects into new geographic locations, climate change, and lack of medical surveillance have greatly contributed to the increase in flaviviral infections worldwide. The mechanisms by which flaviviruses alter the immune and the central nervous system have only recently been examined despite the alarming number of infections, related deaths, and increasing global distribution. In this review, we will discuss the expansion of the geographic areas affected by flaviviruses, the potential threats to previously unaffected countries, the mechanisms of pathogenesis, and the potential therapeutic interventions to limit the devastating consequences of these viruses. PMID:25287260

Flaviviruses, an expanding threat in public health: focus on dengue, West Nile, and Japanese encephalitis virus.

PubMed

Daep, Carlo Amorin; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L; Eugenin, Eliseo Alberto

2014-12-01

The flaviviruses dengue, West Nile, and Japanese encephalitis represent three major mosquito-borne viruses worldwide. These pathogens impact the lives of millions of individuals and potentially could affect non-endemic areas already colonized by mosquito vectors. Unintentional transport of infected vectors (Aedes and Culex spp.), traveling within endemic areas, rapid adaptation of the insects into new geographic locations, climate change, and lack of medical surveillance have greatly contributed to the increase in flaviviral infections worldwide. The mechanisms by which flaviviruses alter the immune and the central nervous system have only recently been examined despite the alarming number of infections, related deaths, and increasing global distribution. In this review, we will discuss the expansion of the geographic areas affected by flaviviruses, the potential threats to previously unaffected countries, the mechanisms of pathogenesis, and the potential therapeutic interventions to limit the devastating consequences of these viruses.

Indicator Development for Potential Presence of Schistosomiasis Japonicum's Vector in Lake and Marshland Regions- A Case Study of Poyang Lake, Jiangxi Province, P.R. China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marie, Tiphanie; Yesou, Herve; Huber, Claire; De Fraipont, Paul; Uribe, Carlos; Lacaux, Jean-Pierre; Lafaye, Murielle; Lai, Xijun; Desnos, Yves-Louis

2013-01-01

Earth observation data and bibliography on environmental parameters were used for mapping Oncomelania hupensis distribution, the Schistosomiasis japonicum’s intermediate host snail, within Poyang Lake (Jiangxi Province, P.R. China). Areas suitable for the development of O. hupensis, the vector of schistosomiasis, were derived from submersion time parameters and vegetation community indicators. ENVISAT time series data acquired from 2000 to 2009 were used for submersion times mapping, and 5 Beijing-1 data acquired during the dry season between 2006 and 2008 were used to map suitable vegetation for vector development. Yearly maps obtained indicate four principally potential endemic areas: the Gan Delta, the bank of the Fu He River, the Dalianzi Hu sector and the Poyang Lake Nature Reserve. Monthly maps from December 2005 to December 2008 show the dynamic of potential O. hupensis presence areas.

Probablistic Analyses of Waste Package Quantities Impacted by Potential Igneous Disruption at Yucca Mountain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wallace, M. G.; Iuzzolina, H.

2005-12-01

A probabilistic analysis was conducted to estimate ranges for the numbers of waste packages that could be damaged in a potential future igneous event through a repository at Yucca Mountain. The analysis includes disruption from an intrusive igneous event and from an extrusive volcanic event. This analysis supports the evaluation of the potential consequences of future igneous activity as part of the total system performance assessment for the license application for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP). The first scenario, igneous intrusion, investigated the case where one or more igneous dikes intersect the repository. A swarm of dikes was characterized by distributions of length, width, azimuth, and number of dikes and the spacings between them. Through the use in part of a latin hypercube simulator and a modified video game engine, mathematical relationships were built between those parameters and the number of waste packages hit. Corresponding cumulative distribution function curves (CDFs) for the number of waste packages hit under several different scenarios were calculated. Variations in dike thickness ranges, as well as in repository magma bulkhead positions were examined through sensitivity studies. It was assumed that all waste packages in an emplacement drift would be impacted if that drift was intersected by a dike. Over 10,000 individual simulations were performed. Based on these calculations, out of a total of over 11,000 planned waste packages distributed over an area of approximately 5.5 km2 , the median number of waste packages impacted was roughly 1/10 of the total. Individual cases ranged from 0 waste packages to the entire inventory being impacted. The igneous intrusion analysis involved an explicit characterization of dike-drift intersections, built upon various distributions that reflect the uncertainties associated with the inputs. The second igneous scenario, volcanic eruption (eruptive conduits), considered the effects of conduits formed in association with a volcanic eruption through the repository. Mathematical relations were built between the resulting conduit areas and the fraction of the repository area occupied by waste packages. This relation was used in conjunction with a joint distribution incorporating variability in eruptive conduit diameters and in the number of eruptive conduits that could intersect the repository.

Ecogeography of teosinte

PubMed Central

Sánchez González, José de Jesús; García, Guillermo Medina; Ojeda, Gabriela Ramírez; Larios, Lino De la Cruz; Holland, James Brendan; Medrano, Roberto Miranda; García Romero, Giovanni Emmanuel

2018-01-01

Adaptation of crops to climate change has motivated an increasing interest in the potential value of novel traits from wild species; maize wild relatives, the teosintes, harbor traits that may be useful to maize breeding. To study the ecogeographic distribution of teosinte we constructed a robust database of 2363 teosinte occurrences from published sources for the period 1842–2016. A geographical information system integrating 216 environmental variables was created for Mexico and Central America and was used to characterize the environment of each teosinte occurrence site. The natural geographic distribution of teosinte extends from the Western Sierra Madre of the State of Chihuahua, Mexico to the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica, including practically the entire western part of Mesoamerica. The Mexican annuals Zea mays ssp. parviglumis and Zea mays ssp. mexicana show a wide distribution in Mexico, while Zea diploperennis, Zea luxurians, Zea perennis, Zea mays ssp. huehuetenangensis, Zea vespertilio and Zea nicaraguensis had more restricted and distinct ranges, representing less than 20% of the total occurrences. Only 11.2% of teosinte populations are found in Protected Natural Areas in Mexico and Central America. Ecogeographical analysis showed that teosinte can cope with extreme levels of precipitation and temperatures during growing season. Modelling teosinte geographic distribution demonstrated congruence between actual and potential distributions; however, some areas with no occurrences appear to be within the range of adaptation of teosintes. Field surveys should be prioritized to such regions to accelerate the discovery of unknown populations. Potential areas for teosintes Zea mays ssp. mexicana races Chalco, Nobogame, and Durango, Zea mays ssp. huehuetenangensis, Zea luxurians, Zea diploperennis and Zea nicaraguensis are geographically separated; however, partial overlapping occurs between Zea mays ssp. parviglumis and Zea perennis, between Zea mays ssp. parviglumis and Zea diploperennis, and between Zea mays ssp. mexicana race Chalco and Zea mays ssp. mexicana race Central Plateau. Assessing priority of collecting for conservation showed that permanent monitoring programs and in-situ conservation projects with participation of local farmer communities are critically needed; Zea mays ssp. mexicana (races Durango and Nobogame), Zea luxurians, Zea diploperennis, Zea perennis and Zea vespertilio should be considered as the highest priority taxa. PMID:29451888

Mapping soil erosion hotspots and assessing the potential impacts of land management practices in the highlands of Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamene, Lulseged; Adimassu, Zenebe; Ellison, James; Yaekob, Tesfaye; Woldearegay, Kifle; Mekonnen, Kindu; Thorne, Peter; Le, Quang Bao

2017-09-01

An enormous effort is underway in Ethiopia to address soil erosion and restore overall land productivity. Modelling and participatory approaches can be used to delineate erosion hotspots, plan site- and context-specific interventions and assess their impacts. In this study, we employed a modelling interface developed based on the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation adjusted by the sediment delivery ratio to map the spatial distribution of net soil loss and identify priority areas of intervention. Using the modelling interface, we also simulated the potential impacts of different soil and water conservation measures in reducing net soil loss. Model predictions showed that net soil loss in the study area ranges between 0.4 and 88 t ha- 1 yr- 1 with an average of 12 t ha- 1 yr- 1. The dominant soil erosion hotspots were associated with steep slopes, gullies, communal grazing and cultivated areas. The average soil loss observed in this study is higher than the tolerable soil loss rate estimated for the highland of Ethiopia. The scenario analysis results showed that targeting hotspot areas where soil loss exceeds 10 t ha- 1 yr- 1 could reduce net soil loss to the tolerable limit (< 2 t ha- 1 yr- 1). The spatial distribution of soil loss and the sediment yield reduction potential of different options provided essential information to guide prioritization and targeting. In addition, the results can help promoting awareness within the local community of the severity of the soil erosion problem and the potential of management interventions. Future work should include cost-benefit and tradeoff analyses of the various management options for achieving a given level of erosion reduction.

Egg production patterns of two invertebrate species in rocky subtidal areas under different fishing regimes along the coast of central Chile

PubMed Central

Ospina-Álvarez, Andres; González, Catherine; Fernández, Miriam

2017-01-01

Fishing is a major source of human impact, reducing density and size of a wide range of exploited species in comparison to areas exhibiting strong regulations (no-take and partially protected areas, including Territorial Use Rights for Fisheries, TURFs). Since size and density might have important consequences on reproduction, and therefore natural re-seeding, we monitored adult size, density and potential fecundity of the keyhole limpet (Fissurella latimarginata) and the red sea urchin (Loxechinus albus) in areas under two fishing regimes (TURFs and Open Access Areas, OAAs). Analyzing the distribution of suitable habitats, we predict spatial patterns of potential egg production, to identify reproductive hotspots along the central coast of Chile. The current system of TURFs in central Chile showed higher potential egg production of F. latimarginata and of L. albus than expected under a complete OAAs scenario (67 and 52% respectively). Potential egg production showed more than a twofold reduction when the complete TURFs scenario was compared against complete OAAs condition in both species. Individual size and density explained between 60% and 100% of the variability in potential egg production, suggesting the importance of the enhancement of both biological variables in TURFs in Chile. Potential egg production for both species in the northern part of the studied domain was higher due to the combined effect of (a) suitable habitat and (b) concentration of TURFs. Our results suggest that partially protected areas, such as TURFs can significantly enhance the production of propagules that could seed exploited areas. PMID:28481886

Trans-Boundary Edge Effects in the Western Carpathians: The Influence of Hunting on Large Carnivore Occupancy.

PubMed

Kutal, Miroslav; Váňa, Martin; Suchomel, Josef; Chapron, Guillaume; López-Bao, José Vicente

2016-01-01

The conservation and management of wolves Canis lupus in the periphery of their distribution is challenging. Edges of wolf distribution are characterized by very few and intermittent occurrences of individuals, which are modulated by multiple factors affecting the overall population such as human-caused mortality, management targets and food availability. The knowledge of population dynamics in the edges becomes crucial when hunting takes place nearby the edges, which may preclude population expansion. Here, using as example the occurrence of wolves in the Beskydy Mountains (Czech-Slovak border), which are the edge distribution of the wolf and Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx populations in the West Carpathians, we explored how food availability and hunting in the Slovakian core area affected the dynamics of wolves in the edges of this population. During 2003-2012, we monitored large carnivore occurrence by snow-tracking surveys and tested potential differences in the occurrence of these species in Beskydy Mountains and potential mechanisms behind detected patterns. Despite the proximity to the core area, with several wolf reproductions being confirmed at least in recent years, the wolf was a very rare species in Beskydy and was recorded 14 times less often than the lynx. The expected abundance of wolves in the Beskydy Mountains was inversely related to prey availability in the Slovakian core area. Wolf hunting the year before influenced the expected abundance of wolves in Beskydy area. We discuss how different life histories and legal status of both species probably account for most of the observed difference of occurrence at range margins.

Trans-Boundary Edge Effects in the Western Carpathians: The Influence of Hunting on Large Carnivore Occupancy

PubMed Central

Váňa, Martin; Suchomel, Josef; Chapron, Guillaume; López-Bao, José Vicente

2016-01-01

The conservation and management of wolves Canis lupus in the periphery of their distribution is challenging. Edges of wolf distribution are characterized by very few and intermittent occurrences of individuals, which are modulated by multiple factors affecting the overall population such as human-caused mortality, management targets and food availability. The knowledge of population dynamics in the edges becomes crucial when hunting takes place nearby the edges, which may preclude population expansion. Here, using as example the occurrence of wolves in the Beskydy Mountains (Czech-Slovak border), which are the edge distribution of the wolf and Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx populations in the West Carpathians, we explored how food availability and hunting in the Slovakian core area affected the dynamics of wolves in the edges of this population. During 2003–2012, we monitored large carnivore occurrence by snow-tracking surveys and tested potential differences in the occurrence of these species in Beskydy Mountains and potential mechanisms behind detected patterns. Despite the proximity to the core area, with several wolf reproductions being confirmed at least in recent years, the wolf was a very rare species in Beskydy and was recorded 14 times less often than the lynx. The expected abundance of wolves in the Beskydy Mountains was inversely related to prey availability in the Slovakian core area. Wolf hunting the year before influenced the expected abundance of wolves in Beskydy area. We discuss how different life histories and legal status of both species probably account for most of the observed difference of occurrence at range margins. PMID:28002475

Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health.

PubMed

Rasmussen, Karen; Thyrring, Jakob; Muscarella, Robert; Borchsenius, Finn

2017-01-01

Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species ( Ambrosia spp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in 'high allergy risk' (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27-100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe.

Freight transportation and the potential for invasions of exotic insects in urban and periurban forests of the United States.

PubMed

Colunga-Garcia, Manuel; Haack, Robert A; Adelaja, Adesoji O

2009-02-01

Freight transportation is an important pathway for the introduction and dissemination of exotic forest insects (EFI). Identifying the final destination of imports is critical in determining the likelihood of EFI establishment. We analyzed the use of regional freight transport information to characterize risk of urban and periurban areas to EFI introductions. Specific objectives were to 1) approximate the final distribution of selected imports among urban areas of the United States, 2) characterize the final distribution of imports in terms of their spatial aggregation and dominant world region of origin, and 3) assess the effect of the final distribution of imports on the level of risk to urban and periurban forests from EFI. Freight pattern analyses were conducted for three categories of imports whose products or packaging materials are associated with EFI: wood products, nonmetallic mineral products, and machinery. The final distribution of wood products was the most evenly distributed of the three selected imports, whereas machinery was most spatially concentrated. We found that the type of import and the world region of origin greatly influence the final distribution of imported products. Risk assessment models were built based on the amount of forestland and imports for each urban area The model indicated that 84-88% of the imported tonnage went to only 4-6% of the urban areas in the contiguous United States. We concluded that freight movement information is critical for proper risk assessment of EFI. Implications of our findings and future research needs are discussed.

Limitations to the Use of Species-Distribution Models for Environmental-Impact Assessments in the Amazon.

PubMed

Carneiro, Lorena Ribeiro de A; Lima, Albertina P; Machado, Ricardo B; Magnusson, William E

2016-01-01

Species-distribution models (SDM) are tools with potential to inform environmental-impact studies (EIA). However, they are not always appropriate and may result in improper and expensive mitigation and compensation if their limitations are not understood by decision makers. Here, we examine the use of SDM for frogs that were used in impact assessment using data obtained from the EIA of a hydroelectric project located in the Amazon Basin in Brazil. The results show that lack of knowledge of species distributions limits the appropriate use of SDM in the Amazon region for most target species. Because most of these targets are newly described and their distributions poorly known, data about their distributions are insufficient to be effectively used in SDM. Surveys that are mandatory for the EIA are often conducted only near the area under assessment, and so models must extrapolate well beyond the sampled area to inform decisions made at much larger spatial scales, such as defining areas to be used to offset the negative effects of the projects. Using distributions of better-known species in simulations, we show that geographical-extrapolations based on limited information of species ranges often lead to spurious results. We conclude that the use of SDM as evidence to support project-licensing decisions in the Amazon requires much greater area sampling for impact studies, or, alternatively, integrated and comparative survey strategies, to improve biodiversity sampling. When more detailed distribution information is unavailable, SDM will produce results that generate uncertain and untestable decisions regarding impact assessment. In many cases, SDM is unlikely to be better than the use of expert opinion.

Limitations to the Use of Species-Distribution Models for Environmental-Impact Assessments in the Amazon

PubMed Central

Carneiro, Lorena Ribeiro de A.; Lima, Albertina P.; Machado, Ricardo B.; Magnusson, William E.

2016-01-01

Species-distribution models (SDM) are tools with potential to inform environmental-impact studies (EIA). However, they are not always appropriate and may result in improper and expensive mitigation and compensation if their limitations are not understood by decision makers. Here, we examine the use of SDM for frogs that were used in impact assessment using data obtained from the EIA of a hydroelectric project located in the Amazon Basin in Brazil. The results show that lack of knowledge of species distributions limits the appropriate use of SDM in the Amazon region for most target species. Because most of these targets are newly described and their distributions poorly known, data about their distributions are insufficient to be effectively used in SDM. Surveys that are mandatory for the EIA are often conducted only near the area under assessment, and so models must extrapolate well beyond the sampled area to inform decisions made at much larger spatial scales, such as defining areas to be used to offset the negative effects of the projects. Using distributions of better-known species in simulations, we show that geographical-extrapolations based on limited information of species ranges often lead to spurious results. We conclude that the use of SDM as evidence to support project-licensing decisions in the Amazon requires much greater area sampling for impact studies, or, alternatively, integrated and comparative survey strategies, to improve biodiversity sampling. When more detailed distribution information is unavailable, SDM will produce results that generate uncertain and untestable decisions regarding impact assessment. In many cases, SDM is unlikely to be better than the use of expert opinion. PMID:26784891

The South-American distribution and southernmost record of Biomphalaria peregrina—a potential intermediate host of schistosomiasis

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Schistosomiasis remains a major parasitic disease, endemic in large parts of South America. Five neotropical species of Biomphalaria have been found to act as intermediate hosts of Schistosoma mansoni in natural populations, while others have been shown to be susceptible in experimental infections, although not found infected in the field. Among these potential intermediate hosts, Biomphalaria peregrina represents the most widespread species in South America, with confirmed occurrence records from Venezuela to northern Patagonia. In this study, we report the southernmost record for the species at the Pinturas River, in southern Patagonia, which finding implies a southward reassessment of the limit for the known species of this genus. The identities of the individuals from this population were confirmed through morphological examination, and by means of two mitochondrial genes, cytochrome oxidase subunit I (COI) and 16S-rRNA. With both markers, phylogenetic analyses were conducted in order to compare the genetic background of individuals from the Pinturas River with previously genetically characterized strains of B. peregrina from various South-American locations. In addition, we produced a potential distribution model of B. peregrina in South America and identified the environmental variables that best predict that distribution. The model was estimated through a maximum entropy algorithm and run with occurrence points obtained from several sources, including the scientific literature and international databases, along with climatic and hydrographic variables. Different phylogenetic analyses with either the COI or 16S-rRNA sequences did not conflict, but rather gave very similar topological organizations. Two major groups were identified, with sequences from the Pinturas River grouping together with haplotypes from subtropical and temperate regions. The model developed had a satisfactory performance for the study area. We observed that the areas with higher habitat suitability were found to be mainly linked to subtropical and temperate regions of South America between 15° and 45° south latitude, with different moderate- and low-suitability areas outside this range. We also identified the coldest temperatures as the main predictors of the potential distribution of this snail. Susceptibility surveys would be required to evaluate if southern populations of B. peregrina still retain their potential as intermediate hosts of S. mansoni. PMID:28584726

Estimation and comparison of potential runoff-contributing areas in Kansas using topographic, soil, and land-use information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Juracek, Kyle E.

2000-01-01

Digital topographic, soil, and land-use information was used to estimate potential runoff-contributing areas in Kansas. The results were used to compare 91 selected subbasins representing slope, soil, land-use, and runoff variability across the State. Potential runoff-contributing areas were estimated collectively for the processes of infiltration-excess and saturation-excess overland flow using a set of environmental conditions that represented, in relative terms, very high, high, moderate, low, very low, and extremely low potential for runoff. Various rainfall-intensity and soil-permeability values were used to represent the threshold conditions at which infiltration-excess overland flow may occur. Antecedent soil-moisture conditions and a topographic wetness index (TWI) were used to represent the threshold conditions at which saturation-excess overland flow may occur. Land-use patterns were superimposed over the potential runoff-contributing areas for each set of environmental conditions. Results indicated that the very low potential-runoff conditions (soil permeability less than or equal to 1.14 inches per hour and TWI greater than or equal to 14.4) provided the best statewide ability to quantitatively distinguish subbasins as having relatively high, moderate, or low potential for runoff on the basis of the percentage of potential runoff-contributing areas within each subbasin. The very low and (or) extremely low potential-runoff conditions (soil permeability less than or equal to 0.57 inch per hour and TWI greater than or equal to 16.3) provided the best ability to qualitatively compare potential for runoff among areas within individual subbasins. The majority of subbasins with relatively high potential for runoff are located in the eastern half of the State where soil permeability is generally less and precipitation is typically greater. The ability to distinguish subbasins as having relatively high, moderate, or low potential for runoff was possible mostly due to the variability of soil permeability across the State. The spatial distribution of potential contributing areas, in combination with the superimposed land-use patterns, may be used to help identify and prioritize subbasin areas for the implementation of best-management practices to manage runoff and meet Federally mandated total maximum daily load requirements.

The oil and gas resource potential of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge 1002 area, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1999-01-01

In anticipation of the need for scientific support for policy decisions and in light of the decade-old perspective of a previous assessment, the USGS has completed a reassessment of the petroleum potential of the ANWR 1002 area. This was a comprehensive study by a team of USGS scientists in collaboration on technical issues (but not the assessment) with colleagues in other agencies and universities. The study incorporated all available public data and included new field and analytic work as well as the reevaluation of all previous work.Using a methodology similar to that used in previous USGS assessments in the ANWR and the NPRA, this study estimates that the total quantity of technically recoverable oil in the 1002 area is 7.7 BBO (mean value), which is distributed among 10 plays. Using a conservative estimate of 512 million barrels as a minimum commercially developable field size, then about 2.6 BBO of oil distributed in about three fields is expected to be economically recoverable in the undeformed part of the 1002 area. Using a similar estimated minimum field size, which may not be conservative considering the increased distance from infrastructure, the deformed area would be expected to have about 600 MMBO in one field.The amounts of in-place oil estimated for the 1002 area are larger than previous USGS estimates. The increase results in large part from improved resolution of reprocessed seismic data and geologic analogs provided by recent nearby oil discoveries.

Power-law distributions for the areas of the basins of attraction on a potential energy landscape.

PubMed

Massen, Claire P; Doye, Jonathan P K

2007-03-01

Energy landscape approaches have become increasingly popular for analyzing a wide variety of chemical physics phenomena. Basic to many of these applications has been the inherent structure mapping, which divides up the potential energy landscape into basins of attraction surrounding the minima. Here, we probe the nature of this division by introducing a method to compute the basin area distribution and applying it to some archetypal supercooled liquids. We find that this probability distribution is a power law over a large number of decades with the lower-energy minima having larger basins of attraction. Interestingly, the exponent for this power law is approximately the same as that for a high-dimensional Apollonian packing, providing further support for the suggestion that there is a strong analogy between the way the energy landscape is divided into basins, and the way that space is packed in self-similar, space-filling hypersphere packings, such as the Apollonian packing. These results suggest that the basins of attraction provide a fractal-like tiling of the energy landscape, and that a scale-free pattern of connections between the minima is a general property of energy landscapes.

The historical distribution of Gunnison Sage-Grouse in Colorado

USGS Publications Warehouse

Braun, Clait E.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Nehring, Jennifer A.; Commons, Michelle L.; Young, Jessica R.; Potter, Kim M.

2014-01-01

The historical distribution of Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) in Colorado is described based on published literature, observations, museum specimens, and the known distribution of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.). Historically, Gunnison Sage-Grouse were widely but patchily distributed in up to 22 counties in south-central and southwestern Colorado. The historical distribution of this species was south of the Colorado-Eagle river drainages primarily west of the Continental Divide. Potential contact areas with Greater Sage-Grouse (C. urophasianus) were along the Colorado-Eagle river system in Mesa, Garfield, and Eagle counties, west of the Continental Divide. Gunnison Sage-Grouse historically occupied habitats that were naturally highly fragmented by forested mountains and plateaus/mesas, intermountain basins without robust species of sagebrush, and river systems. This species adapted to use areas with more deciduous shrubs (i.e., Quercus spp., Amelanchier spp., Prunus spp.) in conjunction with sagebrush. Most areas historically occupied were small, linear, and patchily distributed within the overall landscape matrix. The exception was the large intermountain basin in Gunnison, Hinsdale, and Saguache counties. The documented distribution east of the Continental Divide within the large expanse of the San Luis Valley (Alamosa, Conejos, Costilla, and Rio Grande counties) was minimal and mostly on the eastern, northern, and southern fringes. Many formerly occupied habitat patches were vacant by the mid 1940s with extirpations continuing to the late 1990s. Counties from which populations were recently extirpated include Archuleta and Pitkin (1960s), and Eagle, Garfield, Montezuma, and Ouray (1990s).

Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges

PubMed Central

Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

2016-01-01

Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map’s coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions. PMID:27618445

Impacts of Climate Change on Native Landcover: Seeking Future Climatic Refuges.

PubMed

Zanin, Marina; Mangabeira Albernaz, Ana Luisa

2016-01-01

Climate change is a driver for diverse impacts on global biodiversity. We investigated its impacts on native landcover distribution in South America, seeking to predict its effect as a new force driving habitat loss and population isolation. Moreover, we mapped potential future climatic refuges, which are likely to be key areas for biodiversity conservation under climate change scenarios. Climatically similar native landcovers were aggregated using a decision tree, generating a reclassified landcover map, from which 25% of the map's coverage was randomly selected to fuel distribution models. We selected the best geographical distribution models among twelve techniques, validating the predicted distribution for current climate with the landcover map and used the best technique to predict the future distribution. All landcover categories showed changes in area and displacement of the latitudinal/longitudinal centroid. Closed vegetation was the only landcover type predicted to expand its distributional range. The range contractions predicted for other categories were intense, even suggesting extirpation of the sparse vegetation category. The landcover refuges under future climate change represent a small proportion of the South American area and they are disproportionately represented and unevenly distributed, predominantly occupying five of 26 South American countries. The predicted changes, regardless of their direction and intensity, can put biodiversity at risk because they are expected to occur in the near future in terms of the temporal scales of ecological and evolutionary processes. Recognition of the threat of climate change allows more efficient conservation actions.

Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change.

PubMed

Maguire, Kaitlin C; Shinneman, Douglas J; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D

2018-03-14

Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results demonstrate the utility in modeling intraspecific response to changing climate and they inform management and conservation strategies, by identifying haplotypes and geographic areas that may be most at risk, or most secure, under projected climate change.

Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Shinneman, Douglas; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

2018-01-01

Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results demonstrate the utility in modeling intraspecific response to changing climate and they inform management and conservation strategies, by identifying haplotypes and geographic areas that may be most at risk, or most secure, under projected climate change.

An integrated geophysical study on the Mesozoic strata distribution and hydrocarbon potential in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hu, Weijian; Hao, Tianyao; Jiang, Weiwei; Xu, Ya; Zhao, Baimin; Jiang, Didi

2015-11-01

A series of drilling, dredge, and seismic investigations indicate that Mesozoic sediments exist in the South China Sea (SCS) which shows a bright prospect for oil and gas exploration. In order to study the distribution of Mesozoic strata and their residual thicknesses in the SCS, we carried out an integrated geophysical study based mainly on gravity data, gravity basement depth and distribution of residual Mesozoic thickness in the SCS were obtained using gravity inversion constrained with high-precision drilling and seismic data. In addition, the fine deep crustal structures and distribution characteristics of Mesozoic thicknesses of three typical profiles were obtained by gravity fitting inversion. Mesozoic strata in the SCS are mainly distributed in the south and north continental margins, and have been reformed by the later tectonic activities. They extend in NE-trending stripes are macro-controlled by the deep and large NE-trending faults, and cut by the NW-trending faults which were active in later times. The offset in NW direction of Mesozoic strata in Nansha area of the southern margin are more obvious as compared to the north margin. In the Pearl River Mouth Basin and Southwest Taiwan Basin of the north continental margin the Mesozoic sediments are continuously distributed with a relatively large thickness. In the Nansha area of the south margin the Mesozoic strata are discontinuous and their thicknesses vary considerably. According to the characteristics of Mesozoic thickness distribution and hydrocarbon potential analyses from drilling and other data, Dongsha Uplift-Chaoshan Depression, Southwest Taiwan Basin-Peikang Uplift and Liyue Bank have large thickness of the Mesozoic residual strata, have good hydrocarbon genesis capability and complete source-reservoir-cap combinations, show a bright prospect of Mesozoic oil/gas resources.

Using Streamflow and Stream Temperature to Assess the Potential Responses of Freshwater Fish to Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

VanCompernolle, M.; Ficklin, D. L.; Knouft, J.

2017-12-01

Streamflow and stream temperature are key variables influencing growth, reproduction, and mortality of freshwater fish. Climate-induced changes in these variables are expected to alter the structure and function of aquatic ecosystems. Using Maxent, a species distribution model (SDM) based on the principal of maximum entropy, we predicted potential distributional responses of 100 fish species in the Mobile River Basin (MRB) to changes in climate based on contemporary and future streamflow and stream temperature estimates. Geologic, topographic, and landcover data were also included in each SDM to determine the contribution of these physical variables in defining areas of suitable habitat for each species. Using an ensemble of Global Climate Model (GCM) projections under a high emissions scenario, predicted distributions for each species across the MRB were produced for both a historical time period, 1975-1994, and a future time period, 2060-2079, and changes in total area and the percent change in historical suitable habitat for each species were calculated. Results indicate that flow (28%), temperature (29%), and geology (29%), on average, contribute evenly to determining areas of suitable habitat for fish species in the MRB, with landcover and slope playing more limited roles. Temperature contributed slightly more predictive ability to SDMs (31%) for the 77 species experiencing overall declines in areas of suitable habitat, but only 21% for the 23 species gaining habitat across all GCMs. Species are expected to lose between 15-24% of their historical suitable habitat, with threatened and endangered species losing 22-30% and those endemic to the MRB losing 19-28%. Sculpins (Cottidae) are expected to lose the largest amount of historical habitat (up to 84%), while pygmy sunfish (Elassomatidae) are expected to lose less than 1% of historical habitat. Understanding which species may be at risk of habitat loss under future projections of climate change can help fisheries managers better prepare for potential alterations in species composition not only within the MRB, but other watersheds throughout the world.

Worldwide distribution of subaquatic gas hydrates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kvenvolden, K.A.; Ginsburg, G.D.; Soloviev, V.A.

1993-01-01

Sediments containing natural gas hydrates occur worldwide on continental and insular slopes and rises of active and passive margins, on continental shelves of polar regions, and in deep-water (> 300 m) environments of inland lakes and seas. The potential amount of methane in natural gas hydrates is enormous, with current estimates at about 1019 g of methane carbon. Subaquatic gas hydrates have been recovered in 14 different areas of the world, and geophysical and geochemical evidence for them has been found in 33 other areas. The worldwide distribution of natural gas hydrates is updated here; their global importance to the chemical and physical properties of near-surface subaquatic sediments is affirmed. ?? 1993 Springer-Verlag.

The spatial optimism model research for the regional land use based on the ecological constraint

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

XU, K.; Lu, J.; Chi, Y.

2013-12-01

The study focuses on the Yunnan-Guizhou (i.e. Yunnan province and Guizhou province) Plateau in China. Since the Yunnan-Guizhou region consists of closed basins, the land resources suiting for development are in a shortage, and the ecological problems in the area are quite complicated. In such circumstance, in order to get the applicable basins area and distribution, certain spatial optimism model is needed. In this research, Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and land use data are used to get the boundary rules of the basins distribution. Furthermore, natural risks, ecological risks and human-made ecological risks are integrated to be analyzed. Finally, the spatial overlay analysis method is used to model the developable basins area and distribution for industries and urbanization. The study process can be divided into six steps. First, basins and their distribution need to be recognized. In this way, the DEM data is used to extract the geomorphology characteristics. The plaque regions with gradient under eight degrees are selected. Among these regions, the total area of the plaque with the area above 8 km2 is 54,000 km2, 10% of the total area. These regions are selected to the potential application of industries and urbanization. In the later five steps, analyses are aimed at these regions. Secondly, the natural risks are analyzed. The conditions of the earthquake, debris flow and rainstorm and flood are combined to classify the natural risks. Thirdly, the ecological risks are analyzed containing the ecological sensibility and ecosystem service function importance. According to the regional ecologic features, the sensibility containing the soil erosion, acid rain, stony desertification and survive condition factors is derived and classified according to the medium value to get the ecological sensibility partition. The ecosystem service function importance is classified and divided considering the biology variation protection and water conservation factors. The fourth step is the man-made ecological risks analysis. The mineral resources exploitation, forest resources developing, farming, tourism, industrialization and urbanization are integrated to derive the potential ecological risks made by human activities. The risks weight are given using the expert marking method, Then the man-made ecological risks are classified and divided among the regions. In the fifth step, the comprehensive ecological controlling divisions are obtained based on the above factors classification. At last, the applicable regions and distribution are derived using the spatial overlay analysis removing the higher ecological risks area and considering the land use status. In conclusion, based on the above comprehensive analyses, the applicable basins area are 2,575 km2 and 1,011 km2 respectively for the Yunnan province and Guizhou province. The amount is less than 1% of the perspective province total area focusing on the central part of the two provinces.

Tree range expansion may be enhanced by escape from negative plant-soil feedbacks.

PubMed

McCarthy-Neumann, Sarah; Ibáñez, Inés

2012-12-01

Many plant species are expected to shift their distributional ranges in response to global warming. As they arrive at new sites, migrant plant species may be released from their natural soil pathogens and/or deprived of key symbiotic organisms. Under such scenarios plant-soil feedbacks (PSF) will likely have an impact on plant species' ability to establish in new areas. In this study we evaluated the role that PSF may play on the migratory potential of dominant temperate tree species at the northern limit of their distributional range in the Great Lakes region of North America. To test their ability to expand their current range, we assessed seedling establishment, i.e., survival, of local and potential migrant tree species in a field transplant experiment. To test for the presence and strength of PSF, we also assessed seedling survival during establishment in a greenhouse experiment, where the potential migrant species were grown in soils collected within and beyond their distributional ranges. The combination of experiments provided us with a comprehensive understanding of the role of PSF in seedling establishment in new areas. In the field, we found that survival for most migrant species was similar to those of the local community, ensuring that these species could establish in areas beyond their current range. In the greenhouse, we found that the majority of species experienced strong negative conspecific feedbacks mediated by soil biota, but these responses occurred for most species only in low light conditions. Lastly, our combined results indicate that migrant tree species can colonize and may even have enhanced short-term recruitment beyond their ranges due to a lack of conspecific adults (and the resulting negative PSF from these adults).

A case study of liquefaction risk analysis based on the thickness and depth of the liquefaction layer using CPT and electric resistivity data in the Hinode area, Itako City, Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jinguuji, Motoharu; Toprak, Selcuk

2017-12-01

The Hinode area of Itako City in Ibaraki Prefecture, Japan, suffered some of the most severe liquefaction damage of any areas in the Great Eastern Japan Earthquake in 2011. This liquefaction damage has been investigated by Itako City, as well as by universities and research institutes in Japan. The National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST) has carried out numerous investigations along the Tone River, and in particular, intensive surveys were done in the Hinode area. We have conducted a risk analysis based on the thickness and depth of the liquefaction layer measured using cone penetration testing (CPT) data and electric resistivity data obtained in the Hinode area. The distribution of the risk estimated from CPT at 143 points, and that obtained from analysis of the resistivity survey data, agreed with the distribution of actual damage. We also carried out conventional risk analyses method using the liquefaction resistance factor (FL) and liquefaction potential index (PL) methods with CPT data. The results show high PL values over the entire area, but their distribution did not agree well with actual damage in some parts of the study area. Because the analysis of the thickness and depth of the liquefaction layer, using geophysical prospecting methods, can cover a widespread area, this method will be very useful in investigating liquefaction risk, especially for gas and water pipelines.

Spatial analysis to identify hotspots of prevalence of schizophrenia.

PubMed

Moreno, Berta; García-Alonso, Carlos R; Negrín Hernández, Miguel A; Torres-González, Francisco; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

2008-10-01

The geographical distribution of mental health disorders is useful information for epidemiological research and health services planning. To determine the existence of geographical hotspots with a high prevalence of schizophrenia in a mental health area in Spain. The study included 774 patients with schizophrenia who were users of the community mental health care service in the area of South Granada. Spatial analysis (Kernel estimation) and Bayesian relative risks were used to locate potential hotspots. Availability and accessibility were both rated in each zone and spatial algebra was applied to identify hotspots in a particular zone. The age-corrected prevalence rate of schizophrenia was 2.86 per 1,000 population in the South Granada area. Bayesian analysis showed a relative risk varying from 0.43 to 2.33. The area analysed had a non-uniform spatial distribution of schizophrenia, with one main hotspot (zone S2). This zone had poor accessibility to and availability of mental health services. A municipality-based variation exists in the prevalence of schizophrenia and related disorders in the study area. Spatial analysis techniques are useful tools to analyse the heterogeneous distribution of a variable and to explain genetic/environmental factors in hotspots related with a lack of easy availability of and accessibility to adequate health care services.

Gravel sediment routing from widespread, low-intensity landscape disturbance, Current River basin, Missouri

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jacobson, Robert B.; Gran, K.B.

1999-01-01

During the last 160 years, land-use changes in the Ozarks have had the potential to cause widespread, low-intensity delivery of excess amounts of gravel-sized sediment to stream channels. Previous studies have indicated that this excess gravel bedload is moving in wave-like forms through Ozarks drainage basins. The longitudinal, areal distribution of gravel bars along 160 km of the Current River, Missouri, was evaluated to determine the relative effects of valley-scale controls, tributary basin characteristics, and lagged sediment transport in creating areas of gravel accumulations. The longitudinal distribution of gravel-bar area shows a broad scale wave-like form with increases in gravel-bar area weakly associated with tributary junctions. Secondary peaks of gravel area with 1·8–4·1 km spacing (disturbance reaches) are superimposed on the broad form. Variations in valley width explain some, but not all, of the short-spacing variation in gravel-bar area. Among variables describing tributary drainage basin morphometry, present-day land use and geologic characteristics, only drainage area and road density relate even weakly to gravel-bar areal inventories. A simple, channel network-based sediment routing model shows that many of the features of the observed longitudinal gravel distribution can be replicated by uniform transport of sediment from widespread disturbances through a channel network. These results indicate that lagged sediment transport may have a dominant effect on the synoptic spatial distribution of gravel in Ozarks streams; present-day land uses are only weakly associated with present-day gravel inventories; and valley-scale characteristics have secondary controls on gravel accumulations in disturbance reaches.

Achilles heel of a powerful invader: restrictions on distribution and disappearance of feral pigs from a protected area in Northern Pantanal, Western Brazil

PubMed Central

Hofmann, Gabriel S.; Fonseca, Carlos; Oliveira, Luiz Flamarion B.

2018-01-01

This paper focuses on a rare case of natural disappearance of feral pigs (Sus scrofa) in an extensive area without using traditional methods of eradication programs. The study was conducted both in the Private Reserve of Natural Heritage (PRNH) Sesc Pantanal and in an adjacent traditional private cattle ranch. In 1998, feral pigs were abundant and widely distributed in the PRNH. However, the feral pigs gradually disappeared from the area and currently, the absence of pigs in the PRNH contrasts with the adjacent cattle ranch where the species is abundant. To understand the current distribution of the species in the region we partitioned the effects of variation of feral pigs’ presence considering the habitat structure (local), landscape composition and the occurrence of potential predators. Additionally, we modeled the distributions of the species in Northern Pantanal, projecting into the past using the classes of vegetation cover before the PRNH implementation (year 1988). Our results show areas with more suitability for feral pigs in regions where the landscape is dominated by pastures and permeated by patches of Seasonal Dry Forest. The species tends to avoid predominantly forested areas. Additionally, we recorded that the environmental suitability decreases exponentially as the distance from water bodies increases. The disappearance of feral pigs in the PRNH area seems to be associated with changes in the landscape and vegetation structure after the removal of the cattle. In the Brazilian Pantanal, the feral pigs’ occurrence seems strongly conditioned to environmental changes associated to livestock activity. PMID:29340234

Potential for Remotely Sensed Soil Moisture Data in Hydrologic Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Engman, Edwin T.

1997-01-01

Many hydrologic processes display a unique signature that is detectable with microwave remote sensing. These signatures are in the form of the spatial and temporal distributions of surface soil moisture and portray the spatial heterogeneity of hydrologic processes and properties that one encounters in drainage basins. The hydrologic processes that may be detected include ground water recharge and discharge zones, storm runoff contributing areas, regions of potential and less than potential ET, and information about the hydrologic properties of soils and heterogeneity of hydrologic parameters. Microwave remote sensing has the potential to detect these signatures within a basin in the form of volumetric soil moisture measurements in the top few cm. These signatures should provide information on how and where to apply soil physical parameters in distributed and lumped parameter models and how to subdivide drainage basins into hydrologically similar sub-basins.

Ecology and geography of human monkeypox case occurrences across Africa.

PubMed

Ellis, Christine K; Carroll, Darin S; Lash, Ryan R; Peterson, A Townsend; Damon, Inger K; Malekani, Jean; Formenty, Pierre

2012-04-01

As ecologic niche modeling (ENM) evolves as a tool in spatial epidemiology and public health, selection of the most appropriate and informative environmental data sets becomes increasingly important. Here, we build on a previous ENM analysis of the potential distribution of human monkeypox in Africa by refining georeferencing criteria and using more-diverse environmental data to identify environmental parameters contributing to monkeypox distributional ecology. Significant environmental variables include annual precipitation, several temperature-related variables, primary productivity, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and pH. The potential distribution identified with this set of variables was broader than that identified in previous analyses but does not include areas recently found to hold monkeypox in southern Sudan. Our results emphasize the importance of selecting the most appropriate and informative environmental data sets for ENM analyses in pathogen transmission mapping.

[Distribution of potentially nitrogen-fixing bacteria and its relationship with physicochemical parameters in soils with three vegetation types in the southern Colombian Amazon region].

PubMed

Mantilla-Paredes, Andrea J; Cardona, Gladys I; Peña-Venegas, Clara P; Murcia, Uriel; Rodríguez, Mariana; Zambrano, Maria M

2009-12-01

Potentially nitrogen-fixing microaerobic and aerobic bacteria were isolated from several Colombian Amazon soils (forest, pastures and chagras) and two landscapes (floodable and non floodable areas). The abundance and distribution of bacteria were evaluated, as well as their relationship with soil physical and chemical characteristics. Landscape had a direct influence on the abundance of the microaerobic bacteria, with higher numbers in forest and pasture soils in non-floodable zones. The aerobic isolates (N=51) were grouped into 19 morphologies, with the highest numbers found in forest soil in floodable zones. A higher number of aerobic morphologies was shared among forest sites (Nonmetric Multidimensional Scaling and Analysis of Similarity p<0.05), and 40% of the distribution was explained by lime percentage and Al concentration.

Long-Term Visuo-Gustatory Appetitive and Aversive Conditioning Potentiate Human Visual Evoked Potentials

PubMed Central

Christoffersen, Gert R. J.; Laugesen, Jakob L.; Møller, Per; Bredie, Wender L. P.; Schachtman, Todd R.; Liljendahl, Christina; Viemose, Ida

2017-01-01

Human recognition of foods and beverages are often based on visual cues associated with flavors. The dynamics of neurophysiological plasticity related to acquisition of such long-term associations has only recently become the target of investigation. In the present work, the effects of appetitive and aversive visuo-gustatory conditioning were studied with high density EEG-recordings focusing on late components in the visual evoked potentials (VEPs), specifically the N2-P3 waves. Unfamiliar images were paired with either a pleasant or an unpleasant juice and VEPs evoked by the images were compared before and 1 day after the pairings. In electrodes located over posterior visual cortex areas, the following changes were observed after conditioning: the amplitude from the N2-peak to the P3-peak increased and the N2 peak delay was reduced. The percentage increase of N2-to-P3 amplitudes was asymmetrically distributed over the posterior hemispheres despite the fact that the images were bilaterally symmetrical across the two visual hemifields. The percentage increases of N2-to-P3 amplitudes in each experimental subject correlated with the subject’s evaluation of positive or negative hedonic valences of the two juices. The results from 118 scalp electrodes gave surface maps of theta power distributions showing increased power over posterior visual areas after the pairings. Source current distributions calculated from swLORETA revealed that visual evoked currents rose as a result of conditioning in five cortical regions—from primary visual areas and into the inferior temporal gyrus (ITG). These learning-induced changes were seen after both appetitive and aversive training while a sham trained control group showed no changes. It is concluded that long-term visuo-gustatory conditioning potentiated the N2-P3 complex, and it is suggested that the changes are regulated by the perceived hedonic valence of the US. PMID:28983243

Response of Sierra Nevada forests to projected climate-wildfire interactions.

PubMed

Liang, Shuang; Hurteau, Matthew D; Westerling, Anthony LeRoy

2017-05-01

Climate influences forests directly and indirectly through disturbance. The interaction of climate change and increasing area burned has the potential to alter forest composition and community assembly. However, the overall forest response is likely to be influenced by species-specific responses to environmental change and the scale of change in overstory species cover. In this study, we sought to quantify how projected changes in climate and large wildfire size would alter forest communities and carbon (C) dynamics, irrespective of competition from nontree species and potential changes in other fire regimes, across the Sierra Nevada, USA. We used a species-specific, spatially explicit forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to evaluate forest response to climate-wildfire interactions under historical (baseline) climate and climate projections from three climate models (GFDL, CCSM3, and CNRM) forced by a medium-high emission scenario (A2) in combination with corresponding climate-specific large wildfire projections. By late century, we found modest changes in the spatial distribution of dominant species by biomass relative to baseline, but extensive changes in recruitment distribution. Although forest recruitment declined across much of the Sierra, we found that projected climate and wildfire favored the recruitment of more drought-tolerant species over less drought-tolerant species relative to baseline, and this change was greatest at mid-elevations. We also found that projected climate and wildfire decreased tree species richness across a large proportion of the study area and transitioned more area to a C source, which reduced landscape-level C sequestration potential. Our study, although a conservative estimate, suggests that by late century, forest community distributions may not change as intact units as predicted by biome-based modeling, but are likely to trend toward simplified community composition as communities gradually disaggregate and the least tolerant species are no longer able to establish. The potential exists for substantial community composition change and forest simplification beyond this century. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global potential distribution of Drosophila suzukii (Diptera, Drosophilidae)

PubMed Central

dos Santos, Luana A.; Mendes, Mayara F.; Krüger, Alexandra P.; Blauth, Monica L.; Gottschalk, Marco S.

2017-01-01

Drosophila suzukii (Matsumura) is a species native to Western Asia that is able to pierce intact fruit during egg laying, causing it to be considered a fruit crop pest in many countries. Drosophila suzukii have a rapid expansion worldwide; occurrences were recorded in North America and Europe in 2008, and South America in 2013. Due to this rapid expansion, we modeled the potential distribution of this species using the Maximum Entropy Modeling (MaxEnt) algorithm and the Genetic Algorithm for Ruleset Production (GARP) using 407 sites with known occurrences worldwide and 11 predictor variables. After 1000 replicates, the value of the average area under the curve (AUC) of the model predictions with 1000 replicates was 0.97 for MaxEnt and 0.87 for GARP, indicating that both models had optimal performances. The environmental variables that most influenced the prediction of the MaxEnt model were the annual mean temperature, the maximum temperature of the warmest month, the mean temperature of the coldest quarter and the annual precipitation. The models indicated high environmental suitability, mainly in temperate and subtropical areas in the continents of Asia, Europe and North and South America, where the species has already been recorded. The potential for further invasions of the African and Australian continents is predicted due to the environmental suitability of these areas for this species. PMID:28323903

Using Landsat ETM+ and ASTER Sensors to Aid the Mineral Assessment of the Desert National Wildlife Refuge, Clark and Lincoln Counties, Nevada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cramer, Timothy F.

The Desert National Wildlife Refuge in southern Nevada has been selected for remote sensing analysis as part of a mineral assessment required for renewal of mineral withdrawal. The area of interest is nearly 3,000 km2 and covers portions of 5 different ranges with little to no infrastructure. Assessing such a large area using traditional field methods is very time intensive and expensive. The study described here serves as a pilot study, testing the capability of Landsat ETM+ and ASTER satellite imagery to remotely identify areas of potentially mineralized lithologies. This is done by generating a number of band ratio, band index, and mineral likelihood maps identifying 5 key mineral classes (silica, clay, iron oxide, dolomite and calcite), which commonly have patterned zonation around ore deposits. When compiled with available geologic and geochemical data sets, these intermediate products can provide guidance for targeted field evaluation and exploration. Field observations and spectral data collected in the laboratory can then be integrated with ASTER imagery to guide a Spectral Angle Mapper algorithm to generate a distribution map of the five mineral classes. The methods presented found the ASTER platform to be capable of remotely assessing the distribution of various lithologies and the mineral potential of large, remote areas. Furthermore areas of both high and low potential for ore deposits can be identified and used to guide field evaluation and exploration. Remote sensing studies of this caliber can be performed relatively quickly and inexpensively resulting in datasets, which can result in more accurate mapping and the identification of both lithologic boundaries and previously unidentified alteration associated with mineralization. Future mineral assessments and exploration activity should consider similar studies prior to field work.

Identification of priority conservation areas and potential corridors for jaguars in the Caatinga biome, Brazil.

PubMed

Morato, Ronaldo Gonçalves; Ferraz, Katia Maria Paschoaletto Micchi de Barros; de Paula, Rogério Cunha; de Campos, Cláudia Bueno

2014-01-01

The jaguar, Panthera onca, is a top predator with the extant population found within the Brazilian Caatinga biome now known to be on the brink of extinction. Designing new conservation units and potential corridors are therefore crucial for the long-term survival of the species within the Caatinga biome. Thus, our aims were: 1) to recognize suitable areas for jaguar occurrence, 2) to delineate areas for jaguar conservation (PJCUs), 3) to design corridors among priority areas, and 4) to prioritize PJCUs. A total of 62 points records of jaguar occurrence and 10 potential predictors were analyzed in a GIS environment. A predictive distributional map was obtained using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) as performed by the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm. Areas equal to or higher than the median suitability value of 0.595 were selected as of high suitability for jaguar occurrence and named as Priority Jaguar Conservation Units (PJCU). Ten PJCUs with sizes varying from 23.6 km2 to 4,311.0 km2 were identified. Afterwards, we combined the response curve, as generated by SDM, and expert opinions to create a permeability matrix and to identify least cost corridors and buffer zones between each PJCU pair. Connectivity corridors and buffer zone for jaguar movement included an area of 8.884,26 km2 and the total corridor length is about 160.94 km. Prioritizing criteria indicated the PJCU representing c.a. 68.61% of the total PJCU area (PJCU # 1) as of high priority for conservation and connectivity with others PJCUs (PJCUs # 4, 5 and 7) desirable for the long term survival of the species. In conclusion, by using the jaguar as a focal species and combining SDM and expert opinion we were able to create a valid framework for practical conservation actions at the Caatinga biome. The same approach could be used for the conservation of other carnivores.

Identification of Priority Conservation Areas and Potential Corridors for Jaguars in the Caatinga Biome, Brazil

PubMed Central

Morato, Ronaldo Gonçalves; Ferraz, Katia Maria Paschoaletto Micchi de Barros; de Paula, Rogério Cunha; de Campos, Cláudia Bueno

2014-01-01

The jaguar, Panthera onca, is a top predator with the extant population found within the Brazilian Caatinga biome now known to be on the brink of extinction. Designing new conservation units and potential corridors are therefore crucial for the long-term survival of the species within the Caatinga biome. Thus, our aims were: 1) to recognize suitable areas for jaguar occurrence, 2) to delineate areas for jaguar conservation (PJCUs), 3) to design corridors among priority areas, and 4) to prioritize PJCUs. A total of 62 points records of jaguar occurrence and 10 potential predictors were analyzed in a GIS environment. A predictive distributional map was obtained using Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) as performed by the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm. Areas equal to or higher than the median suitability value of 0.595 were selected as of high suitability for jaguar occurrence and named as Priority Jaguar Conservation Units (PJCU). Ten PJCUs with sizes varying from 23.6 km2 to 4,311.0 km2 were identified. Afterwards, we combined the response curve, as generated by SDM, and expert opinions to create a permeability matrix and to identify least cost corridors and buffer zones between each PJCU pair. Connectivity corridors and buffer zone for jaguar movement included an area of 8.884,26 km2 and the total corridor length is about 160.94 km. Prioritizing criteria indicated the PJCU representing c.a. 68.61% of the total PJCU area (PJCU # 1) as of high priority for conservation and connectivity with others PJCUs (PJCUs # 4, 5 and 7) desirable for the long term survival of the species. In conclusion, by using the jaguar as a focal species and combining SDM and expert opinion we were able to create a valid framework for practical conservation actions at the Caatinga biome. The same approach could be used for the conservation of other carnivores. PMID:24709817

Increasing Potential Risk of a Global Aquatic Invader in Europe in Contrast to Other Continents under Future Climate Change

PubMed Central

Liu, Xuan; Guo, Zhongwei; Ke, Zunwei; Wang, Supen; Li, Yiming

2011-01-01

Background Anthropogenically-induced climate change can alter the current climatic habitat of non-native species and can have complex effects on potentially invasive species. Predictions of the potential distributions of invasive species under climate change will provide critical information for future conservation and management strategies. Aquatic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasive species and climate change, but the effect of climate change on invasive species distributions has been rather neglected, especially for notorious global invaders. Methodology/Principal Findings We used ecological niche models (ENMs) to assess the risks and opportunities that climate change presents for the red swamp crayfish (Procambarus clarkii), which is a worldwide aquatic invasive species. Linking the factors of climate, topography, habitat and human influence, we developed predictive models incorporating both native and non-native distribution data of the crayfish to identify present areas of potential distribution and project the effects of future climate change based on a consensus-forecast approach combining the CCCMA and HADCM3 climate models under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) by 2050. The minimum temperature from the coldest month, the human footprint and precipitation of the driest quarter contributed most to the species distribution models. Under both the A2a and B2a scenarios, P. clarkii shifted to higher latitudes in continents of both the northern and southern hemispheres. However, the effect of climate change varied considerately among continents with an expanding potential in Europe and contracting changes in others. Conclusions/Significance Our findings are the first to predict the impact of climate change on the future distribution of a globally invasive aquatic species. We confirmed the complexities of the likely effects of climate change on the potential distribution of globally invasive species, and it is extremely important to develop wide-ranging and effective control measures according to predicted geographical shifts and changes. PMID:21479188

An Internet Protocol-Based Software System for Real-Time, Closed-Loop, Multi-Spacecraft Mission Simulation Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burns, Richard D.; Davis, George; Cary, Everett; Higinbotham, John; Hogie, Keith

2003-01-01

A mission simulation prototype for Distributed Space Systems has been constructed using existing developmental hardware and software testbeds at NASA s Goddard Space Flight Center. A locally distributed ensemble of testbeds, connected through the local area network, operates in real time and demonstrates the potential to assess the impact of subsystem level modifications on system level performance and, ultimately, on the quality and quantity of the end product science data.

Co-evolution of electric and telecommunications networks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rivkin, S.R.

1998-05-01

There are potentially significant societal benefits in co-evolution between electricity and telecommunications in the areas of common infrastructure, accelerated deployment of distributed energy, tighter integration of information flow for energy management and distribution, and improved customer care. With due regard for natural processes that are more potent than any regulation and more real than any ideology, the gains from co-evolution would far outweigh the attenuated and speculative savings from restructuring of electricity that is too simplistic.

Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Guo, Yanlong; Li, Xin; Zhao, Zefang; Wei, Haiyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

2017-04-10

Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 10 6  km 2 , 0.14 × 10 6  km 2 , and 0.11 × 10 6  km 2 , respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species.

Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Yanlong; Li, Xin; Zhao, Zefang; Wei, Haiyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

2017-04-01

Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 106 km2, 0.14 × 106 km2, and 0.11 × 106 km2, respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species.

Prediction of the potential geographic distribution of the ectomycorrhizal mushroom Tricholoma matsutake under multiple climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Guo, Yanlong; Li, Xin; Zhao, Zefang; Wei, Haiyan; Gao, Bei; Gu, Wei

2017-01-01

Effective conservation and utilization strategies for natural biological resources require a clear understanding of the geographic distribution of the target species. Tricholoma matsutake is an ectomycorrhizal (ECM) mushroom with high ecological and economic value. In this study, the potential geographic distribution of T. matsutake under current conditions in China was simulated using MaxEnt software based on species presence data and 24 environmental variables. The future distributions of T. matsutake in the 2050s and 2070s were also projected under the RCP 8.5, RCP 6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6 climate change emission scenarios described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The areas of marginally suitable, suitable and highly suitable habitats for T. matsutake in China were approximately 0.22 × 106 km2, 0.14 × 106 km2, and 0.11 × 106 km2, respectively. The model simulations indicated that the area of marginally suitable habitats would undergo a relatively small change under all four climate change scenarios; however, suitable habitats would significantly decrease, and highly suitable habitat would nearly disappear. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of T. matsutake and can be used as a reference for studies on other ectomycorrhizal mushroom species. PMID:28393865

Influence of structures on drainage patterns in the Tushka region, SW Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, C. A.; El-Kaliouby, H.; Ghoneim, E.

2017-12-01

Remote sensing (radar, thermal and topographic) and geophysical (Vertical Electrical Sounding and Ground Penetrating Radar) data are used to understand areas with enhanced groundwater potential in deeper aquifer settings between 22°0‧-22°56‧N and 30°21-31°20‧E in the Tushka area of southwest Egypt. The premise is that areas with enhanced groundwater accumulations represent the best locations for agricultural development that is underway in this region and that deeper sources groundwater resources are the most sustainable. New fluvial and structural interpretations emphasize that the desert landscape was produced by fluvial action in the past. The correlation of high drainage and fault densities, coincident with gentle slope, guided sites for geophysical investigation that provides information about the aquifer depth and distribution, and the subsurface distribution of faults. Results confirm the presence of subsurface fault plains and fault zones and potential water aquifers at these locations. Surface environments further demonstrated an abundance of shrubs and cultivatable soils. The new approach therefore is a cost effective and noninvasive technique that can be applied throughout the eastern Sahara to assist in resource management decisions and support the planned agricultural expansion.

Assessing the potential impacts of a changing climate on the distribution of a rabies virus vector

PubMed Central

Piaggio, Antoinette J.

2018-01-01

Common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) occur throughout much of South America to northern México. Vampire bats have not been documented in recent history in the United States, but have been documented within about 50 km of the U.S. state of Texas. Vampire bats feed regularly on the blood of mammals and can transmit rabies virus to native species and livestock, causing impacts on the health of prey. Thus cattle producers, wildlife management agencies, and other stakeholders have expressed concerns about whether vampire bats might spread into the southern United States. On the other hand, concerns about vampire-borne rabies can also result in wanton destruction at bat roosts in areas occupied by vampire bats, but also in areas not known to be occupied by this species. This can in turn negatively affect some bat roosts, populations, and species that are of conservation concern, including vampire bats. To better understand the current and possible future distribution of vampire bats in North America and help mitigate future cattle management problems, we used 7,094 vampire bat occurrence records from North America and species distribution modeling (SDM) to map the potential distribution of vampire bats in North America under current and future climate change scenarios. We analysed and mapped the potential distribution of this species using 5 approaches to species distribution modeling: logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy. We then projected these models into 17 “worst-case” future climate scenarios for year 2070 to generate hypotheses about how the vampire bat distribution in North America might change in the future. Of the variables used in this analysis, minimum temperature of the coldest month had the highest variable importance using all 5 SDM approaches. These results suggest two potential near-future routes of vampire bat dispersal into the U.S., one via southern Texas, and a second into southern Florida. Some of our SDM models support the hypothesis that suitable habitat for vampire bats may currently exist in parts of the México–U.S. borderlands, including extreme southern portions of Texas, as well as in southern Florida. However, this analysis also suggests that extensive expansion into the south-eastern and south-western U.S. over the coming ~60 years appears unlikely. PMID:29466401

Assessing the potential impacts of a changing climate on the distribution of a rabies virus vector.

PubMed

Hayes, Mark A; Piaggio, Antoinette J

2018-01-01

Common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) occur throughout much of South America to northern México. Vampire bats have not been documented in recent history in the United States, but have been documented within about 50 km of the U.S. state of Texas. Vampire bats feed regularly on the blood of mammals and can transmit rabies virus to native species and livestock, causing impacts on the health of prey. Thus cattle producers, wildlife management agencies, and other stakeholders have expressed concerns about whether vampire bats might spread into the southern United States. On the other hand, concerns about vampire-borne rabies can also result in wanton destruction at bat roosts in areas occupied by vampire bats, but also in areas not known to be occupied by this species. This can in turn negatively affect some bat roosts, populations, and species that are of conservation concern, including vampire bats. To better understand the current and possible future distribution of vampire bats in North America and help mitigate future cattle management problems, we used 7,094 vampire bat occurrence records from North America and species distribution modeling (SDM) to map the potential distribution of vampire bats in North America under current and future climate change scenarios. We analysed and mapped the potential distribution of this species using 5 approaches to species distribution modeling: logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy. We then projected these models into 17 "worst-case" future climate scenarios for year 2070 to generate hypotheses about how the vampire bat distribution in North America might change in the future. Of the variables used in this analysis, minimum temperature of the coldest month had the highest variable importance using all 5 SDM approaches. These results suggest two potential near-future routes of vampire bat dispersal into the U.S., one via southern Texas, and a second into southern Florida. Some of our SDM models support the hypothesis that suitable habitat for vampire bats may currently exist in parts of the México-U.S. borderlands, including extreme southern portions of Texas, as well as in southern Florida. However, this analysis also suggests that extensive expansion into the south-eastern and south-western U.S. over the coming ~60 years appears unlikely.

Robust small area estimation of poverty indicators using M-quantile approach (Case study: Sub-district level in Bogor district)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Girinoto, Sadik, Kusman; Indahwati

2017-03-01

The National Socio-Economic Survey samples are designed to produce estimates of parameters of planned domains (provinces and districts). The estimation of unplanned domains (sub-districts and villages) has its limitation to obtain reliable direct estimates. One of the possible solutions to overcome this problem is employing small area estimation techniques. The popular choice of small area estimation is based on linear mixed models. However, such models need strong distributional assumptions and do not easy allow for outlier-robust estimation. As an alternative approach for this purpose, M-quantile regression approach to small area estimation based on modeling specific M-quantile coefficients of conditional distribution of study variable given auxiliary covariates. It obtained outlier-robust estimation from influence function of M-estimator type and also no need strong distributional assumptions. In this paper, the aim of study is to estimate the poverty indicator at sub-district level in Bogor District-West Java using M-quantile models for small area estimation. Using data taken from National Socioeconomic Survey and Villages Potential Statistics, the results provide a detailed description of pattern of incidence and intensity of poverty within Bogor district. We also compare the results with direct estimates. The results showed the framework may be preferable when direct estimate having no incidence of poverty at all in the small area.

Application of future remote sensing systems to irrigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Miller, L. D.

1982-01-01

Area estimates of irrigated crops and knowledge of crop type are required for modeling water consumption to assist farmers, rangers, and agricultural consultants in scheduling irrigation for distributed management of crop yields. Information on canopy physiology and soil moisture status on a spatial basis is potentially available from remote sensors, so the questions to be addressed relate to: (1) timing (data frequency, instantaneous and integrated measurement); and scheduling (widely distributed spatial demands); (2) spatial resolution; (3) radiometric and geometric accuracy and geoencoding; and (4) information/data distribution. This latter should be overnight, with no central storage, onsite capture, and low cost.

Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

PubMed Central

Holt, Ashley C; Salkeld, Daniel J; Fritz, Curtis L; Tucker, James R; Gong, Peng

2009-01-01

Background Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans) samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Results Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948) and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Conclusion Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources. In addition, Maxent model results were significantly correlated with coyote samples, indicating that carnivore surveillance programs will continue to be important for tracking the response of plague to future climate conditions. PMID:19558717

Glacial lake inventory and lake outburst potential in Uzbekistan.

PubMed

Petrov, Maxim A; Sabitov, Timur Y; Tomashevskaya, Irina G; Glazirin, Gleb E; Chernomorets, Sergey S; Savernyuk, Elena A; Tutubalina, Olga V; Petrakov, Dmitriy A; Sokolov, Leonid S; Dokukin, Mikhail D; Mountrakis, Giorgos; Ruiz-Villanueva, Virginia; Stoffel, Markus

2017-08-15

Climate change has been shown to increase the number of mountain lakes across various mountain ranges in the World. In Central Asia, and in particular on the territory of Uzbekistan, a detailed assessment of glacier lakes and their evolution over time is, however lacking. For this reason we created the first detailed inventory of mountain lakes of Uzbekistan based on recent (2002-2014) satellite observations using WorldView-2, SPOT5, and IKONOS imagery with a spatial resolution from 2 to 10m. This record was complemented with data from field studies of the last 50years. The previous data were mostly in the form of inventories of lakes, available in Soviet archives, and primarily included localized in-situ data. The inventory of mountain lakes presented here, by contrast, includes an overview of all lakes of the territory of Uzbekistan. Lakes were considered if they were located at altitudes above 1500m and if lakes had an area exceeding 100m 2 . As in other mountain regions of the World, the ongoing increase of air temperatures has led to an increase in lake number and area. Moreover, the frequency and overall number of lake outburst events have been on the rise as well. Therefore, we also present the first outburst assessment with an updated version of well-known approaches considering local climate features and event histories. As a result, out of the 242 lakes identified on the territory of Uzbekistan, 15% are considered prone to outburst, 10% of these lakes have been assigned low outburst potential and the remainder of the lakes have an average level of outburst potential. We conclude that the distribution of lakes by elevation shows a significant influence on lake area and hazard potential. No significant differences, by contrast, exist between the distribution of lake area, outburst potential, and lake location with respect to glaciers by regions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Simulation of net infiltration and potential recharge using a distributed-parameter watershed model of the Death Valley region, Nevada and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hevesi, Joseph A.; Flint, Alan L.; Flint, Lorraine E.

2003-01-01

This report presents the development and application of the distributed-parameter watershed model, INFILv3, for estimating the temporal and spatial distribution of net infiltration and potential recharge in the Death Valley region, Nevada and California. The estimates of net infiltration quantify the downward drainage of water across the lower boundary of the root zone and are used to indicate potential recharge under variable climate conditions and drainage basin characteristics. Spatial variability in recharge in the Death Valley region likely is high owing to large differences in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, bedrock permeability, soil thickness, vegetation characteristics, and contributions to recharge along active stream channels. The quantity and spatial distribution of recharge representing the effects of variable climatic conditions and drainage basin characteristics on recharge are needed to reduce uncertainty in modeling ground-water flow. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Department of Energy, developed a regional saturated-zone ground-water flow model of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system to help evaluate the current hydrogeologic system and the potential effects of natural or human-induced changes. Although previous estimates of recharge have been made for most areas of the Death Valley region, including the area defined by the boundary of the Death Valley regional ground-water flow system, the uncertainty of these estimates is high, and the spatial and temporal variability of the recharge in these basins has not been quantified. To estimate the magnitude and distribution of potential recharge in response to variable climate and spatially varying drainage basin characteristics, the INFILv3 model uses a daily water-balance model of the root zone with a primarily deterministic representation of the processes controlling net infiltration and potential recharge. The daily water balance includes precipitation (as either rain or snow), snow accumulation, sublimation, snowmelt, infiltration into the root zone, evapotranspiration, drainage, water content change throughout the root-zone profile (represented as a 6-layered system), runoff (defined as excess rainfall and snowmelt) and surface water run-on (defined as runoff that is routed downstream), and net infiltration (simulated as drainage from the bottom root-zone layer). Potential evapotranspiration is simulated using an hourly solar radiation model to simulate daily net radiation, and daily evapotranspiration is simulated as an empirical function of root zone water content and potential evapotranspiration. The model uses daily climate records of precipitation and air temperature from a regionally distributed network of 132 climate stations and a spatially distributed representation of drainage basin characteristics defined by topography, geology, soils, and vegetation to simulate daily net infiltration at all locations, including stream channels with intermittent streamflow in response to runoff from rain and snowmelt. The temporal distribution of daily, monthly, and annual net infiltration can be used to evaluate the potential effect of future climatic conditions on potential recharge. The INFILv3 model inputs representing drainage basin characteristics were developed using a geographic information system (GIS) to define a set of spatially distributed input parameters uniquely assigned to each grid cell of the INFILv3 model grid. The model grid, which was defined by a digital elevation model (DEM) of the Death Valley region, consists of 1,252,418 model grid cells with a uniform grid cell dimension of 278.5 meters in the north-south and east-west directions. The elevation values from the DEM were used with monthly regression models developed from the daily climate data to estimate the spatial distribution of daily precipitation and air temperature. The elevation values were also used to simulate atmosp

Habitat availability and gene flow influence diverging local population trajectories under scenarios of climate change: a place-based approach.

PubMed

Schwalm, Donelle; Epps, Clinton W; Rodhouse, Thomas J; Monahan, William B; Castillo, Jessica A; Ray, Chris; Jeffress, Mackenzie R

2016-04-01

Ecological niche theory holds that species distributions are shaped by a large and complex suite of interacting factors. Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to describe species' niches and predict the effects of future environmental change, including climate change. Currently, SDMs often fail to capture the complexity of species' niches, resulting in predictions that are generally limited to climate-occupancy interactions. Here, we explore the potential impact of climate change on the American pika using a replicated place-based approach that incorporates climate, gene flow, habitat configuration, and microhabitat complexity into SDMs. Using contemporary presence-absence data from occupancy surveys, genetic data to infer connectivity between habitat patches, and 21 environmental niche variables, we built separate SDMs for pika populations inhabiting eight US National Park Service units representing the habitat and climatic breadth of the species across the western United States. We then predicted occurrence probability under current (1981-2010) and three future time periods (out to 2100). Occurrence probabilities and the relative importance of predictor variables varied widely among study areas, revealing important local-scale differences in the realized niche of the American pika. This variation resulted in diverse and - in some cases - highly divergent future potential occupancy patterns for pikas, ranging from complete extirpation in some study areas to stable occupancy patterns in others. Habitat composition and connectivity, which are rarely incorporated in SDM projections, were influential in predicting pika occupancy in all study areas and frequently outranked climate variables. Our findings illustrate the importance of a place-based approach to species distribution modeling that includes fine-scale factors when assessing current and future climate impacts on species' distributions, especially when predictions are intended to manage and conserve species of concern within individual protected areas. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Influence of savanna fire on Australian monsoon season precipitation and circulation as simulated using a distributed computing environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lynch, Amanda H.; Abramson, David; Görgen, Klaus; Beringer, Jason; Uotila, Petteri

2007-10-01

Fires in the Australian savanna have been hypothesized to affect monsoon evolution, but the hypothesis is controversial and the effects have not been quantified. A distributed computing approach allows the development of a challenging experimental design that permits simultaneous variation of all fire attributes. The climate model simulations are distributed around multiple independent computer clusters in six countries, an approach that has potential for a range of other large simulation applications in the earth sciences. The experiment clarifies that savanna burning can shape the monsoon through two mechanisms. Boundary-layer circulation and large-scale convergence is intensified monotonically through increasing fire intensity and area burned. However, thresholds of fire timing and area are evident in the consequent influence on monsoon rainfall. In the optimal band of late, high intensity fires with a somewhat limited extent, it is possible for the wet season to be significantly enhanced.

[Ecology suitability study of Ephedra intermedia].

PubMed

Ma, Xiao-Hui; Lu, You-Yuan; Huang, De-Dong; Zhu, Tian-Tian; Lv, Pei-Lin; Jin, Ling

2017-06-01

The study aims at predicting ecological suitability of Ephedra intermedia in China by using maximum entropy Maxent model combined with GIS, and finding the main ecological factors affecting the distribution of E. intermedia suitability in appropriate growth area. Thirty-eight collected samples of E. intermedia and E. intermedia and 116 distribution information from CVH information using ArcGIS technology were analyzed. MaxEnt model was applied to forecast the E. intermedia in our country's ecology. E. intermedia MaxEnt ROC curve model training data and testing data sets the AUC value was 0.986 and 0.958, respectively, which were greater than 0.9, tending to be 1.The calculated E. intermedia habitat suitability by the model showed a high accuracy and credibility, which indicated that MaxEnt model could well predict the potential distribution area of E. intermedia in China. Copyright© by the Chinese Pharmaceutical Association.

Cetacean occurrence and spatial distribution: Habitat modelling for offshore waters in the Portuguese EEZ (NE Atlantic)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Correia, Ana M.; Tepsich, Paola; Rosso, Massimiliano; Caldeira, Rui; Sousa-Pinto, Isabel

2015-03-01

In the Portuguese Economic Exclusive Zone (EEZ) (NE Atlantic), little survey effort dedicated to cetacean species has been carried out in offshore waters. As a consequence, data on their occurrence, distribution and habitat preferences is scarce. In this area, 48 sea surveys along fixed transects within Continental Portugal and Madeira Island were performed in 2012 and 2013, from July to October, using platforms of opportunity. We used an environmental envelope approach and GAM habitat models to identify the role of oceanographic, topographic and geographical variables in shaping cetacean distribution. Results demonstrate the richness of offshore waters in this area as in 10,668 nmi sampled, we recorded 218 sightings from at least nine cetacean species, resulting in an overall ER of 2.04 sightings/100 nmi. The interaction of topographic and oceanographic features was shown to influence the distribution of the species/groups along the routes. Among the sighted species, only common dolphin showed a preference for coastal waters, while for all the other species high seas proved to be determinant. This result reinforces the need to address conservation issues in open ocean. This preliminary assessment showed the importance of the entire area for the distribution of different cetacean species and allowed the identification of several species/group specific potential suitable habitats. Considering the Habitats Directive resolutions, ACCOBAMS priorities, EEZ extension for the area and Maritime Spatial Planning Directive, and the urgent need for management plans, we suggest that the sampling strategy here presented is a cost-effective method to gather valuable data, to be used to improve cetacean habitat models in the area.

Identifying Distribution of Chlorophyll-a Concentration Using Landsat 8 OLI on Marine Waters Area of Cirebon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buditama, Gilang; Damayanti, Astrid; Giok Pin, Tjiong

2017-12-01

Phytoplankton is a microscopic plant that has a function to produces oxygen and organic substances. It also plays a role as a main producer in the food chain of a marine ecosystem. Chlorophyll-a is a colour pigment most common in phytoplankton species, so that the concentration level of chlorophyll-a can be used as an indicator of the abundance of phytoplankton cells, and as a reference for predicting organic potency in the aquatic area. This research discusses about the spatial and temporal distribution of chlorophyll-a and its correlation with salinity and total suspended solid (TSS), in the seawaters of Cirebon, West Java. The goal of this research is to be a source of information for fishermen, and other stakeholders whose related subjects in the field of marine and fisheries to predict fertile water regions and can also be used as an indicator in discovering potential areas to catch pelagic fish in Cirebon seawaters. Chlorophyll-a concentration, salinity, and TSS are identified using remote sensing data such as Landsat-8 OLI multi temporal images according to dry and wet month parameters in the 2014-2015. The results of the processed image are then validated between in-situ measurements in the field and remote sensing imagery at the same time. This research utilizes descriptive analysis, and statistics with spatial approach. The results of the research show that temporally, chlorophyll-a levels have a tendency to be higher in wet months compared to dry months, while chlorophyll-a is higher in areas near the coastline compared to open sea areas. The distribution of chlorophyll-a concentration is affected by salinity and TSS distribution, where salinity has the negative relationship and TSS has the positive relationship with chlorophyll-a distribution.

Estimating hantavirus risk in southern Argentina: a GIS-based approach combining human cases and host distribution.

PubMed

Andreo, Veronica; Neteler, Markus; Rocchini, Duccio; Provensal, Cecilia; Levis, Silvana; Porcasi, Ximena; Rizzoli, Annapaola; Lanfri, Mario; Scavuzzo, Marcelo; Pini, Noemi; Enria, Delia; Polop, Jaime

2014-01-14

We use a Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) approach along with Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques to examine the potential distribution of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) caused by Andes virus (ANDV) in southern Argentina and, more precisely, define and estimate the area with the highest infection probability for humans, through the combination with the distribution map for the competent rodent host (Oligoryzomys longicaudatus). Sites with confirmed cases of HPS in the period 1995-2009 were mostly concentrated in a narrow strip (~90 km × 900 km) along the Andes range from northern Neuquén to central Chubut province. This area is characterized by high mean annual precipitation (~1,000 mm on average), but dry summers (less than 100 mm), very low percentages of bare soil (~10% on average) and low temperatures in the coldest month (minimum average temperature -1.5 °C), as compared to the HPS-free areas, features that coincide with sub-Antarctic forests and shrublands (especially those dominated by the invasive plant Rosa rubiginosa), where rodent host abundances and ANDV prevalences are known to be the highest. Through the combination of predictive distribution maps of the reservoir host and disease cases, we found that the area with the highest probability for HPS to occur overlaps only 28% with the most suitable habitat for O. longicaudatus. With this approach, we made a step forward in the understanding of the risk factors that need to be considered in the forecasting and mapping of risk at the regional/national scale. We propose the implementation and use of thematic maps, such as the one built here, as a basic tool allowing public health authorities to focus surveillance efforts and normally scarce resources for prevention and control actions in vast areas like southern Argentina.

Cross-scale assessment of potential habitat shifts in a rapidly changing climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Bella, Elizabeth S.; Carlson, Matthew L.; Graziano, Gino; Lamb, Melinda; Seefeldt, Steven S.; Morisette, Jeffrey T.

2014-01-01

We assessed the ability of climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic variables to predict areas of high-risk for plant invasion and consider the relative importance and contribution of these predictor variables by considering two spatial scales in a region of rapidly changing climate. We created predictive distribution models, using Maxent, for three highly invasive plant species (Canada thistle, white sweetclover, and reed canarygrass) in Alaska at both a regional scale and a local scale. Regional scale models encompassed southern coastal Alaska and were developed from topographic and climatic data at a 2 km (1.2 mi) spatial resolution. Models were applied to future climate (2030). Local scale models were spatially nested within the regional area; these models incorporated physiographic and anthropogenic variables at a 30 m (98.4 ft) resolution. Regional and local models performed well (AUC values > 0.7), with the exception of one species at each spatial scale. Regional models predict an increase in area of suitable habitat for all species by 2030 with a general shift to higher elevation areas; however, the distribution of each species was driven by different climate and topographical variables. In contrast local models indicate that distance to right-of-ways and elevation are associated with habitat suitability for all three species at this spatial level. Combining results from regional models, capturing long-term distribution, and local models, capturing near-term establishment and distribution, offers a new and effective tool for highlighting at-risk areas and provides insight on how variables acting at different scales contribute to suitability predictions. The combinations also provides easy comparison, highlighting agreement between the two scales, where long-term distribution factors predict suitability while near-term do not and vice versa.

Distribution of two species of sea snakes, Aipysurus laevis and Emydocephalus annulatus, in the southern Great Barrier Reef: metapopulation dynamics, marine protected areas and conservation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukoschek, V.; Heatwole, H.; Grech, A.; Burns, G.; Marsh, H.

2007-06-01

Aipysurus laevis and Emydocephalus annulatus typically occur in spatially discrete populations, characteristic of metapopulations; however, little is known about the factors influencing the spatial and temporal stability of populations or whether specific conservation strategies, such as networks of marine protected areas, will ensure the persistence of species. Classification tree analyses of 35 years of distribution data (90 reefs, surveyed 1-11 times) in the southern Great Barrier Reef (GBR) revealed that longitude was a major factor determining the status of A. laevis on reefs (present = 38, absent = 38 and changed = 14). Reef exposure and reef area were also important; however, these factors did not specifically account for the population fluctuations and the recent local extinctions of A. laevis in this region. There were no relationships between the status of E. annulatus (present = 16, absent = 68 and changed = 6) and spatial or physical variables. Moreover, prior protection status of reefs did not account for the distribution of either species. Biotic factors, such as habitat and prey availability and the distribution of predators, which may account for the observed patterns of distribution, are discussed. The potential for inter-population exchange among sea snake populations is poorly understood, as is the degree of protection that will be afforded to sea snakes by the recently implemented network of No-take areas in the GBR. Data from this study provide a baseline for evaluating the responses of A. laevis and E. annulatus populations to changes in biotic factors and the degree of protection afforded on reefs within an ecosystem network of No-take marine protected areas in the southern GBR.

Estimation of the minimum permeability coefficient in rats for perfusion-limited tissue distribution in whole-body physiologically-based pharmacokinetics.

PubMed

Jeong, Yoo-Seong; Yim, Chang-Soon; Ryu, Heon-Min; Noh, Chi-Kyoung; Song, Yoo-Kyung; Chung, Suk-Jae

2017-06-01

The objective of the current study was to determine the minimum permeability coefficient, P, needed for perfusion-limited distribution in PBPK. Two expanded kinetic models, containing both permeability and perfusion terms for the rate of tissue distribution, were considered: The resulting equations could be simplified to perfusion-limited distribution depending on tissue permeability. Integration plot analyses were carried out with theophylline in 11 typical tissues to determine their apparent distributional clearances and the model-dependent permeabilities of the tissues. Effective surface areas were calculated for 11 tissues from the tissue permeabilities of theophylline and its PAMPA P. Tissue permeabilities of other drugs were then estimated from their PAMPA P and the effective surface area of the tissues. The differences between the observed and predicted concentrations, as expressed by the sum of squared log differences with the present models were at least comparable to or less than the values obtained using the traditional perfusion-limited distribution model for 24 compounds with diverse PAMPA P values. These observations suggest that the use of a combination of the proposed models, PAMPA P and the effective surface area can be used to reasonably predict the pharmacokinetics of 22 out of 24 model compounds, and is potentially applicable to calculating the kinetics for other drugs. Assuming that the fractional distribution parameter of 80% of the perfusion rate is a reasonable threshold for perfusion-limited distribution in PBPK, our theoretical prediction indicates that the pharmacokinetics of drugs having an apparent PAMPA P of 1×10 -6 cm/s or more will follow the traditional perfusion-limited distribution in PBPK for major tissues in the body. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial distribution of soil cadmium and its influencing factors in peri-urban farmland: a case study in the Jingyang District, Sichuan, China.

PubMed

Li, Bing; Xiao, Rui; Wang, Changquan; Cao, Linhai; Zhang, Yi; Zheng, Shunqiang; Yang, Lan; Guo, Yong

2017-01-01

Semi-agricultural ecosystems in peri-urban areas are susceptible to contamination. The spatial distribution and influencing factors of such pollution are unclear and poorly constrained in many areas worldwide. Therefore, studying the problems of soil pollution in peri-urban areas is critical for environmental management and agricultural production. In this paper, with cadmium (Cd) as the target pollutant, the spatiotemporal variations of soil cadmium pollution and the relative importance of the affecting factors were analyzed at a peri-urban area from the Jingyang District, Sichuan, China. Statistical results showed that the farmland in the study area could be considered moderately soil Cd-polluted, under the dual influence of natural factors and human activity. In particular, the soil Cd concentration in Tianyuan and Bajiaojing exceeded 0.5 mg kg -1 , for intensive industrial enterprises are distributed in these areas. Correspondingly, the geoaccumulation index also showed that the contamination of Cd in this area was moderately polluted. Moreover, the ecological risk index was 80% in the study area, indicating that the soil Cd pollution potential risk was moderate to high. High geological background values (soil Cd = 0.29 mg kg -1 ), river migration, industrial enterprises, and traffic significantly influenced soil Cd pollution, with natural geological factors playing greater roles. The significant horizontal-spatial effective distances away from Shiting River, Deyang-Aba Highway, and chemical plants were 200, 400, and 100 m, respectively. These results will be useful in guiding farmland cultivation and pollution remediation effectively in the peri-urban areas.

Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cole, Kenneth L.; Ironside, Kirsten; Eischeid, Jon K.; Garfin, Gregg; Duffy, Phil; Toney, Chris

2011-01-01

The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ;11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the populations near what had been its northernmost limit. Its ability to spread northward into new suitable habitats after this time may have been inhibited by the somewhat earlier extinction of megafaunal dispersers, especially the Shasta ground sloth. We applied a model of climate suitability for Joshua tree, developed from its 20th-century range and climates, to future climates modeled through a set of six individual general circulation models (GCM) and one suite of 22 models for the late 21st century. All distribution data, observed climate data, and future GCM results were scaled to spatial grids of ;1 km and ;4 km in order to facilitate application within this topographically complex region. All of the models project the future elimination of Joshua tree throughout most of the southern portions of its current range. Although estimates of future monthly precipitation differ between the models, these changes are outweighed by large increases in temperature common to all the models. Only a few populations within the current range are predicted to be sustainable. Several models project significant potential future expansion into new areas beyond the current range, but the species' Historical and current rates of dispersal would seem to prevent natural expansion into these new areas. Several areas are predicted to be potential sites for relocation/ assisted migration. This project demonstrates how information from paleoecology and modern ecology can be integrated in order to understand ongoing processes and future distributions.

An index for estimating the potential metal pollution contribution to atmospheric particulate matter from road dust in Beijing.

PubMed

Zhao, Hongtao; Shao, Yaping; Yin, Chengqing; Jiang, Yan; Li, Xuyong

2016-04-15

The resuspension of road dust from street surfaces could be a big contributor to atmospheric particulate pollution in the rapid urbanization context in the world. However, to date what its potential contribution to the spatial pattern is little known. Here we developed an innovative index model called the road dust index (RI<105μm) and it combines source and transport factors for road dust particles <105μm in diameter. It could quantify and differentiate the impact of the spatial distribution of the potential risks posed by metals associated with road dust on atmospheric suspended particles. The factors were ranked and weighted based on road dust characteristics (the amounts, grain sizes, and mobilities of the road dust, and the concentrations and toxicities of metals in the road dust). We then applied the RI<105μm in the Beijing region to assess the spatial distribution of the potential risks posed by metals associated with road dust on atmospheric suspended particles. The results demonstrated that the road dust in urban areas has higher potential risk of metal to atmospheric particles than that in rural areas. The RI<105μm method offers a new and useful tool for assessing the potential risks posed by metals associated with road dust on atmospheric suspended particles and for controlling atmospheric particulate pollution caused by road dust emissions. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Atlas of Relations Between Climatic Parameters and Distributions of Important Trees and Shrubs in North America - Ecoregions of North America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Robert S.; Anderson, Katherine H.; Pelltier, Richard T.; Shafer, Sarah L.; Bartlein, Patrick J.

2007-01-01

Climate is the primary factor controlling the continental-scale distribution of plant species, although the relations between climatic parameters and species' ranges are only now beginning to be quantified. This volume examines the relations between climate and the distributions of (1) Kuchler's 'potential natural vegetation' categories for the 48 contiguous States of the United States of America, (2) Bailey's ecoregions of North America, and (3) World Wildlife Fund's ecoregions of North America. For these analyses, we employed a 25-kilometer equal-area grid of modern climatic and bioclimatic parameters for North America, coupled with presence-absence data for the occurrence of each ecoregion under the three classification systems under consideration. The resulting relations between climate and ecoregion distributions are presented in graphical and tabular form. Presentation of ecoregion-climate relations here is intended to be useful for a greater understanding of ecosystem evolution, ecosystem dynamics, and potential effects of future climate change on ecoregions.

Shifts in the ecological niche of Lutzomyia peruensis under climate change scenarios in Peru.

PubMed

Moo-Llanes, D A; Arque-Chunga, W; Carmona-Castro, O; Yañez-Arenas, C; Yañez-Trujillano, H H; Cheverría-Pacheco, L; Baak-Baak, C M; Cáceres, A G

2017-06-01

The Peruvian Andes presents a climate suitable for many species of sandfly that are known vectors of leishmaniasis or bartonellosis, including Lutzomyia peruensis (Diptera: Psychodidae), among others. In the present study, occurrences data for Lu. peruensis were compiled from several items in the scientific literature from Peru published between 1927 and 2015. Based on these data, ecological niche models were constructed to predict spatial distributions using three algorithms [Support vector machine (SVM), the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)]. In addition, the environmental requirements of Lu. peruensis and three niche characteristics were modelled in the context of future climate change scenarios: (a) potential changes in niche breadth; (b) shifts in the direction and magnitude of niche centroids, and (c) shifts in elevation range. The model identified areas that included environments suitable for Lu. peruensis in most regions of Peru (45.77%) and an average altitude of 3289 m a.s.l. Under climate change scenarios, a decrease in the distribution areas of Lu. peruensis was observed for all representative concentration pathways. However, the centroid of the species' ecological niche showed a northwest direction in all climate change scenarios. The information generated in this study may help health authorities responsible for the supervision of strategies to control leishmaniasis to coordinate, plan and implement appropriate strategies for each area of risk, taking into account the geographic distribution and potential dispersal of Lu. peruensis. © 2017 The Royal Entomological Society.

Rockfall hazard and risk assessments along roads at a regional scale: example in Swiss Alps

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Michoud, C.; Derron, M.-H.; Horton, P.; Jaboyedoff, M.; Baillifard, F.-J.; Loye, A.; Nicolet, P.; Pedrazzini, A.; Queyrel, A.

2012-03-01

Unlike fragmental rockfall runout assessments, there are only few robust methods to quantify rock-mass-failure susceptibilities at regional scale. A detailed slope angle analysis of recent Digital Elevation Models (DEM) can be used to detect potential rockfall source areas, thanks to the Slope Angle Distribution procedure. However, this method does not provide any information on block-release frequencies inside identified areas. The present paper adds to the Slope Angle Distribution of cliffs unit its normalized cumulative distribution function. This improvement is assimilated to a quantitative weighting of slope angles, introducing rock-mass-failure susceptibilities inside rockfall source areas previously detected. Then rockfall runout assessment is performed using the GIS- and process-based software Flow-R, providing relative frequencies for runout. Thus, taking into consideration both susceptibility results, this approach can be used to establish, after calibration, hazard and risk maps at regional scale. As an example, a risk analysis of vehicle traffic exposed to rockfalls is performed along the main roads of the Swiss alpine valley of Bagnes.

Great gray owls (Strix nebulosa) in Yosemite National Park: on the importance of food, forest structure, and human disturbance

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Riper, Charles; Fontaine, Joseph J.; van Wagtendonk, Jan W.

2013-01-01

We studied great gray owls (Strix nebulosa Forster) in Yosemite National Park, California, measuring variables that could potentially influence patterns of occurrence and conservation of this stateendangered species. We found that owl presence was closely tied to habitat (red fir (Abies magnified A. Murray) and the abundance of meadows), prey, and snags across the landscape. We also found that indicators of human recreational activities negatively influenced owl distribution and habitat use. Great gray owls appear to prefer mid-elevation red fir forest with meadows that are drier and more productive in terms of small mammal populations. That these areas also have the highest human activity presents a paradox, both for individual owls and for the future conservation and management of this California endangered species. The extent to which human recreation in natural areas affects animal behavior, species distribution, and productivity is a growing issue in natural area management. We present information that will allow land managers to better understand how existing natural resources, coupled with human recreation, influence the distribution and habitat use of the great gray owl.

Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya

PubMed Central

Chitale, Vishwas; Rijal, Srijana Joshi; Bisht, Neha; Shrestha, Bharat Babu

2018-01-01

Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively. PMID:29664961

Understanding the dynamics in distribution of invasive alien plant species under predicted climate change in Western Himalaya.

PubMed

Thapa, Sunil; Chitale, Vishwas; Rijal, Srijana Joshi; Bisht, Neha; Shrestha, Bharat Babu

2018-01-01

Invasive alien plant species (IAPS) can pose severe threats to biodiversity and stability of native ecosystems, therefore, predicting the distribution of the IAPS plays a crucial role in effective planning and management of ecosystems. In the present study, we use Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) modelling approach to predict the potential of distribution of eleven IAPS under future climatic conditions under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 in part of Kailash sacred landscape region in Western Himalaya. Based on the model predictions, distribution of most of these invasive plants is expected to expand under future climatic scenarios, which might pose a serious threat to the native ecosystems through competition for resources in the study area. Native scrublands and subtropical needle-leaved forests will be the most affected ecosystems by the expansion of these IAPS. The present study is first of its kind in the Kailash Sacred Landscape in the field of invasive plants and the predictions of potential distribution under future climatic conditions from our study could help decision makers in planning and managing these forest ecosystems effectively.

Availability, usage and expected contribution of potential nursery habitats for the California halibut

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fodrie, F. Joel; Mendoza, Guillermo

2006-06-01

Coastal ecosystems have been identified as important nursery habitats for many of the world's fishery species. Beyond this, there remain many questions about what exactly constitutes high-value, even critical, habitat for juvenile fish. A first step in investigating nursery habitat value should be to catalogue the spatial coverage (availability) of all potential nursery habitats as well as the distribution (usage) of juvenile fish within those habitats. We conducted two years of fall surveys in the nearshore areas of San Diego County, CA, examining the spatial distribution of 0-group California halibut, Paralichthys californicus. The database generated by 527 otter trawls and block-net seine collections was used to produce a series of models employing regression trees to study the abiotic factors (water column and bottom features) that affect juvenile distributions. Along the exposed coast, highest 0-group densities (0.002-0.008 individuals/m 2 (indiv/m 2)) occurred where temperatures exceeded 21.5 °C (2003), and at depths between 3.3 and 5.2 m (2004). Within protected embayments, densities were higher at depths less than 1.5 m (0.054-0.430 indiv/m 2) and, in 2004, inside channeled marsh estuaries (0.156 indiv/m 2). The spatial coverage of potential nursery habitats was calculated using a Geographic Information System (GIS) database, and the total number of resident 0-group halibut within each site was estimated (habitat area × juvenile halibut density) as a proxy for expected contribution of halibut advancing to the adult stock from each nursery. Although 85% of the potential nursery habitat area occurred along the exposed coastline, 69% (2003) to 58% (2004) of 0-group halibut resided in protected embayments. Embayment contribution is much greater in the southern half of the study region, largely due to Mission and San Diego bays. We conclude that all nursery habitat types demonstrate the potential to contribute significantly to stock fitness, and that in general, shallow and better-protected habitats are highly utilized nurseries for 0-group halibut and deserve special attention in management or conservation efforts.

Spatially Distributed Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index and Potential Evapotranspiration for Hydrologic Modeling in Wetland Landscapes

EPA Science Inventory

Evapotranspiration (ET), a highly dynamic flux in wetland landscapes, regulates the accuracy of surface/sub-surface runoff simulation in a hydrologic model. However, considerable uncertainty in simulating ET-related processes remains, including our limited ability to incorporate ...

Assessing Landslide Mobility Using GIS: Application to Kosrae, Micronesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reid, M. E.; Brien, D. L.; Godt, J.; Schmitt, R. G.; Harp, E. L.

2015-12-01

Deadly landslides are often mobile landslides, as exemplified by the disastrous landslide that occurred near Oso, Washington in 2014 killing 43. Despite this association, many landslide susceptibility maps do not identify runout areas. We developed a simple, GIS-based method for identifying areas potentially overrun by mobile slides and debris flows. Our method links three processes within a DEM landscape: landslide initiation, transport, and debris-flow inundation (from very mobile slides). Given spatially distributed shear strengths, we first identify initiation areas using an infinite-slope stability analysis. We then delineate transport zones, or regions of potential entrainment and/or deposition, using a height/length runout envelope. Finally, where these transport zones intersect the channel network, we start debris-flow inundation zones. The extent of inundation is computed using the USGS model Laharz, modified to include many debris-flow locations throughout a DEM. Potential debris-flow volumes are computed from upslope initiation areas and typical slide thicknesses. We applied this approach to the main island of Kosrae State, Federated States of Micronesia (FSM). In 2002, typhoon Chata'an triggered numerous landslides on the neighboring islands of Chuuk State, FSM, resulting in 43 fatalities. Using an infinite-slope stability model calibrated to the Chuuk event, we identified potential landslide initiation areas on Kosrae. We then delineated potential transport zones using a 20º runout envelope, based on runout observations from Chuuk. Potential debris-flow inundation zones were then determined using Laharz. Field inspections on Kosrae revealed that our resulting susceptibility map correctly classified areas covered by previous debris-flow deposits and did not include areas covered by fluvial deposits. Our map has the advantage of providing a visual tool to portray initiation, transport, and runout zones from mobile landslides.

Potential for post-closure radionuclide redistribution due to biotic intrusion: aboveground biomass, litter production rates, and the distribution of root mass with depth at material disposal area G, Los Alamos National Laboratory

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

French, Sean B; Christensen, Candace; Jennings, Terry L

2008-01-01

Low-level radioactive waste (LLW) generated at the Los Alamos National Laboratories (LANL) is disposed of at LANL's Technical Area (T A) 54, Material Disposal Area (MDA) G. The ability of MDA G to safely contain radioactive waste during current and post-closure operations is evaluated as part of the facility's ongoing performance assessment (PA) and composite analysis (CA). Due to the potential for uptake and incorporation of radio nuclides into aboveground plant material, the PA and CA project that plant roots penetrating into buried waste may lead to releases of radionuclides into the accessible environment. The potential amount ofcontamination deposited onmore » the ground surface due to plant intrusion into buried waste is a function of the quantity of litter generated by plants, as well as radionuclide concentrations within the litter. Radionuclide concentrations in plant litter is dependent on the distribution of root mass with depth and the efficiency with which radionuclides are extracted from contaminated soils by the plant's roots. In order to reduce uncertainties associated with the PA and CA for MDA G, surveys are being conducted to assess aboveground biomass, plant litter production rates, and root mass with depth for the four prominent vegetation types (grasses, forbs, shrubs and trees). The collection of aboveground biomass for grasses and forbs began in 2007. Additional sampling was conducted in October 2008 to measure root mass with depth and to collect additional aboveground biomass data for the types of grasses, forbs, shrubs, and trees that may become established at MDA G after the facility undergoes final closure, Biomass data will be used to estimate the future potential mass of contaminated plant litter fall, which could act as a latent conduit for radionuclide transport from the closed disposal area. Data collected are expected to reduce uncertainties associated with the PA and CA for MDA G and ultimately aid in the assessment and subsequent prevention of radionuclide transport within the environment from the closed disposal area and potential exposure to site workers and the public.« less

Predicting the potential distributions of the invasive cycad scale Aulacaspis yasumatsui (Hemiptera: Diaspididae) under different climate change scenarios and the implications for management.

PubMed

Wei, Jiufeng; Zhao, Qing; Zhao, Wanqing; Zhang, Hufang

2018-01-01

Cycads are an ancient group of gymnosperms that are popular as landscaping plants, though nearly all of them are threatened or endangered in the wild. The cycad aulacaspis scale (CAS), Aulacaspis yasumatsui Takagi (Hemiptera: Diaspididae), has become one of the most serious pests of cycads in recent years; however, the potential distribution range and the management approach for this pest are unclear. A potential risk map of cycad aulacaspis scale was created based on occurrence data under different climatic conditions and topology factors in this study. Furthermore, the future potential distributions of CAS were projected for the periods 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (GFDL-CM3, HADGEM2-AO and MIROC5) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios of the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The model suggested high environmental suitability for the continents of Asia and North America, where the species has already been recorded. The potential distribution expansions or reductions were also predicted under different climate change conditions. Temperature of Driest Quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor, explaining 48.1% of the distribution of the species. The results also suggested that highly suitable habitat for CAS would exist in the study area if the mean temperature of 15-20 °C in the driest quarter and a mean temperature of 25-28 °C the wettest quarter. This research provides a theoretical reference framework for developing policy to manage and control this invasive pest.

Dengue and climate change in Australia: predictions for the future should incorporate knowledge from the past.

PubMed

Russell, Richard C; Currie, Bart J; Lindsay, Michael D; Mackenzie, John S; Ritchie, Scott A; Whelan, Peter I

2009-03-02

Dengue transmission in Australia is currently restricted to Queensland, where the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is established. Locally acquired infections have been reported only from urban areas in the north-east of the state, where the vector is most abundant. Considerable attention has been drawn to the potential impact of climate change on dengue distribution within Australia, with projections for substantial rises in incidence and distribution associated with increasing temperatures. However, historical data show that much of Australia has previously sustained both the vector mosquito and dengue viruses. Although current vector distribution is restricted to Queensland, the area inhabited by A. aegypti is larger than the disease-transmission areas, and is not restricted by temperature (or vector-control programs); thus, it is unlikely that rising temperatures alone will bring increased vector or virus distribution. Factors likely to be important to dengue and vector distribution in the future include increased dengue activity in Asian and Pacific nations that would raise rates of virus importation by travellers, importation of vectors via international ports to regions without A. aegypti, higher rates of domestic collection and storage of water that would provide habitat in urban areas, and growing human populations in northern Australia. Past and recent successful control initiatives in Australia lend support to the idea that well resourced and functioning surveillance programs, and effective public health intervention capabilities, are essential to counter threats from dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases. Models projecting future activity of dengue (or other vector-borne disease) with climate change should carefully consider the local historical and contemporary data on the ecology and distribution of the vector and local virus transmission.

2-D inversion of VES data in Saqqara archaeological area, Egypt

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Qady, Gad; Sakamoto, Chika; Ushijima, Keisuke

1999-10-01

The interpretation of actual geophysical field data still has a problem for obtaining a unique solution. In order to investigate the groundwater potentials in Saqqara archaeological area, vertical electrical soundings with Schlumberger array have been carried out. In the interpretation of VES data, 1D resistivity inversion has been performed based on a horizontally layered earth model by El-Qady (1995). However, some results of 1D inversion are not fully satisfied for actual 3D structures such as archaeological tombs. Therefore, we have carried out 2D inversion based on ABIC least squares method for Schlumberger VES data obtained in Saqqara area. Although the results of 2D cross sections were correlated with the previous interpretation, the 2D inversion still shows a rough spatial resistivity distribution, which is the abrupt change in resistivity between two neighboring blocks of the computed region. It is concluded that 3D interpretation is recommended for visualizing ground water distribution with depth in the Saqqara area.

Molluscan indicator species and their potential use in ecological status assessment using species distribution modeling.

PubMed

Moraitis, Manos L; Tsikopoulou, Irini; Geropoulos, Antonios; Dimitriou, Panagiotis D; Papageorgiou, Nafsika; Giannoulaki, Marianna; Valavanis, Vasilis D; Karakassis, Ioannis

2018-05-24

Marine habitat assessment using indicator species through Species Distribution Modeling (SDM) was investigated. The bivalves: Corbula gibba and Flexopecten hyalinus were the indicator species characterizing disturbed and undisturbed areas respectively in terms of chlorophyll a concentration in Greece. The habitat suitability maps of these species reflected the overall ecological status of the area. The C. gibba model successfully predicted the occurrence of this species in areas with increased physical disturbance driven by chlorophyll a concentration, whereas the habitat map for F. hyalinus showed an increased probability of occurrence in chlorophyll-poor areas, affected mainly by salinity. We advocate the use of C. gibba as a proxy for eutrophication and the incorporation of this species in monitoring studies through SDM methods. For the Mediterranean Sea we suggest the use of F. hyalinus in SDM as an indicator of environmental stability and a possible forecasting tool for salinity fluctuations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The effectiveness of surrogate taxa to conserve freshwater biodiversity

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stewart, David R.; Underwood, Zachary E.; Rahel, Frank J.; Walters, Annika W.

2018-01-01

Establishing protected areas has long been an effective conservation strategy, and is often based on more readily surveyed species. The potential of any freshwater taxa to be a surrogate of other aquatic groups has not been fully explored. We compiled occurrence data on 72 species of freshwater fish, amphibians, mussels, and aquatic reptiles for the Great Plains, Wyoming. We used hierarchical Bayesian multi-species mixture models and MaxEnt models to describe species distributions, and program Zonation to identify conservation priority areas for each aquatic group. The landscape-scale factors that best characterized aquatic species distributions differed among groups. There was low agreement and congruence among taxa-specific conservation priorities (<20%), meaning that no surrogate priority areas would include or protect the best habitats of other aquatic taxa. We found that common, wide-ranging aquatic species were included in taxa-specific priority areas, but rare freshwater species were not included. Thus, the development of conservation priorities based on a single freshwater aquatic group would not protect all species in the other aquatic groups.

Assessing the risk zones of Chagas' disease in Chile, in a world marked by global climatic change

PubMed Central

Tapia-Garay, Valentina; Figueroa, Daniela P; Maldonado, Ana; Frías-Laserre, Daniel; Gonzalez, Christian R; Parra, Alonso; Canals, Lucia; Apt, Werner; Alvarado, Sergio; Cáceres, Dante; Canals, Mauricio

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND Vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi appears to be interrupted in Chile; however, data show increasing incidence of Chagas' disease, raising concerns that there may be a reemerging problem. OBJECTIVE To estimate the actual risk in a changing world it is necessary to consider the historical vector distribution and correlate this distribution with the presence of cases and climate change. METHODS Potential distribution models of Triatoma infestans and Chagas disease were performed using Maxent, a machine-learning method. FINDINGS Climate change appears to play a major role in the reemergence of Chagas' disease and T. infestans in Chile. The distribution of both T. infestans and Chagas' disease correlated with maximum temperature, and the precipitation during the driest month. The overlap of Chagas' disease and T. infestans distribution areas was high. The distribution of T. infestans, under two global change scenarios, showed a minimal reduction tendency in suitable areas. MAIN CONCLUSION The impact of temperature and precipitation on the distribution of T. infestans, as shown by the models, indicates the need for aggressive control efforts; the current control measures, including T. infestans control campaigns, should be maintained with the same intensity as they have at present, avoiding sylvatic foci, intrusions, and recolonisation of human dwellings. PMID:29211105

Observations and Modelling of Alternative Tree Cover States of the Boreal Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abis, B.; Brovkin, V.

2017-12-01

Recently, multimodality of the tree cover distribution of the boreal forests has been detected, revealing the existence of three alternative vegetation modes. Identifying which are the regions with a potential for alternative tree cover states, and assessing which are the main factors underlying their existence, is important to project future change of natural vegetation cover and its effect on climate.Through the use of generalised additive models and phase-space analysis, we study the link between tree cover distribution and eight globally-observed environmental factors, such as rainfall, temperature, and permafrost distribution. Using a classification based on these factors, we show the location of areas with potentially alternative tree cover states under the same environmental conditions in the boreal region. Furthermore, to explain the multimodality found in the data and the asymmetry between North America and Eurasia, we study a conceptual model based on tree species competition, and use it to simulate the sensitivity of tree cover to changes in environmental factors.We find that the link between individual environmental variables and tree cover differs regionally. Nonetheless, environmental conditions uniquely determine the vegetation state among the three dominant modes in ˜95% of the cases. On the other hand, areas with potentially alternative tree cover states encompass ˜1.1 million km2, and correspond to possible transition zones with a reduced resilience to disturbances. Employing our conceptual model, we show that multimodality can be explained through competition between tree species with different adaptations to environmental factors and disturbances. Moreover, the model is able to reproduce the asymmetry in tree species distribution between Eurasia and North America. Finally, we find that changes in permafrost could be associated with bifurcation points of the model, corroborating the importance of permafrost in a changing climate.

Patterns of diversity in soft-bodied meiofauna: dispersal ability and body size matter.

PubMed

Curini-Galletti, Marco; Artois, Tom; Delogu, Valentina; De Smet, Willem H; Fontaneto, Diego; Jondelius, Ulf; Leasi, Francesca; Martínez, Alejandro; Meyer-Wachsmuth, Inga; Nilsson, Karin Sara; Tongiorgi, Paolo; Worsaae, Katrine; Todaro, M Antonio

2012-01-01

Biogeographical and macroecological principles are derived from patterns of distribution in large organisms, whereas microscopic ones have often been considered uninteresting, because of their supposed wide distribution. Here, after reporting the results of an intensive faunistic survey of marine microscopic animals (meiofauna) in Northern Sardinia, we test for the effect of body size, dispersal ability, and habitat features on the patterns of distribution of several groups. As a dataset we use the results of a workshop held at La Maddalena (Sardinia, Italy) in September 2010, aimed at studying selected taxa of soft-bodied meiofauna (Acoela, Annelida, Gastrotricha, Nemertodermatida, Platyhelminthes and Rotifera), in conjunction with data on the same taxa obtained during a previous workshop hosted at Tjärnö (Western Sweden) in September 2007. Using linear mixed effects models and model averaging while accounting for sampling bias and potential pseudoreplication, we found evidence that: (1) meiofaunal groups with more restricted distribution are the ones with low dispersal potential; (2) meiofaunal groups with higher probability of finding new species for science are the ones with low dispersal potential; (3) the proportion of the global species pool of each meiofaunal group present in each area at the regional scale is negatively related to body size, and positively related to their occurrence in the endobenthic habitat. Our macroecological analysis of meiofauna, in the framework of the ubiquity hypothesis for microscopic organisms, indicates that not only body size but mostly dispersal ability and also occurrence in the endobenthic habitat are important correlates of diversity for these understudied animals, with different importance at different spatial scales. Furthermore, since the Western Mediterranean is one of the best-studied areas in the world, the large number of undescribed species (37%) highlights that the census of marine meiofauna is still very far from being complete.

Mosquito control insecticides: a probabilistic ecological risk assessment on drift exposures of naled, dichlorvos (naled metabolite) and permethrin to adult butterflies.

PubMed

Hoang, T C; Rand, G M

2015-01-01

A comprehensive probabilistic terrestrial ecological risk assessment (ERA) was conducted to characterize the potential risk of mosquito control insecticide (i.e., naled, it's metabolite dichlorvos, and permethrin) usage to adult butterflies in south Florida by comparing the probability distributions of environmental exposure concentrations following actual mosquito control applications at labeled rates from ten field monitoring studies with the probability distributions of butterfly species response (effects) data from our laboratory acute toxicity studies. The overlap of these distributions was used as a measure of risk to butterflies. The long-term viability (survival) of adult butterflies, following topical (thorax/wings) exposures was the environmental value we wanted to protect. Laboratory acute toxicity studies (24-h LD50) included topical exposures (thorax and wings) to five adult butterfly species and preparation of species sensitivity distributions (SSDs). The ERA indicated that the assessment endpoint of protection, of at least 90% of the species, 90% of the time (or the 10th percentile from the acute SSDs) from acute naled and permethrin exposures, is most likely not occurring when considering topical exposures to adults. Although the surface areas for adulticide exposures are greater for the wings, exposures to the thorax provide the highest potential for risk (i.e., SSD 10th percentile is lowest) for adult butterflies. Dichlorvos appeared to present no risk. The results of this ERA can be applied to other areas of the world, where these insecticides are used and where butterflies may be exposed. Since there are other sources (e.g., agriculture) of pesticides in the environment, where butterfly exposures will occur, the ERA may under-estimate the potential risks under real-world conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate-change-induced range shifts of three allergenic ragweeds (Ambrosia L.) in Europe and their potential impact on human health

PubMed Central

Muscarella, Robert; Borchsenius, Finn

2017-01-01

Invasive allergenic plant species may have severe health-related impacts. In this study we aim to predict the effects of climate change on the distribution of three allergenic ragweed species (Ambrosia spp.) in Europe and discuss the potential associated health impact. We built species distribution models based on presence-only data for three ragweed species, using MAXENT software. Future climatic habitat suitability was modeled under two IPCC climate change scenarios (RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). We quantify the extent of the increase in ‘high allergy risk’ (HAR) areas, i.e., parts of Europe with climatic conditions corresponding to the highest quartile (25%) of present day habitat suitability for each of the three species. We estimate that by year 2100, the distribution range of all three ragweed species increases towards Northern and Eastern Europe under all climate scenarios. HAR areas will expand in Europe by 27–100%, depending on species and climate scenario. Novel HAR areas will occur mostly in Denmark, France, Germany, Russia and the Baltic countries, and overlap with densely populated cities such as Paris and St. Petersburg. We conclude that areas in Europe affected by severe ragweed associated allergy problems are likely to increase substantially by year 2100, affecting millions of people. To avoid this, management strategies must be developed that restrict ragweed dispersal and establishment of new populations. Precautionary efforts should limit the spread of ragweed seeds and reduce existing populations. Only by applying cross-countries management plans can managers mitigate future health risks and economical consequences of a ragweed expansion in Europe. PMID:28321366

Use of wild bird surveillance, human case data and GIS spatial analysis for predicting spatial distributions of West Nile virus in Greece.

PubMed

Valiakos, George; Papaspyropoulos, Konstantinos; Giannakopoulos, Alexios; Birtsas, Periklis; Tsiodras, Sotirios; Hutchings, Michael R; Spyrou, Vassiliki; Pervanidou, Danai; Athanasiou, Labrini V; Papadopoulos, Nikolaos; Tsokana, Constantina; Baka, Agoritsa; Manolakou, Katerina; Chatzopoulos, Dimitrios; Artois, Marc; Yon, Lisa; Hannant, Duncan; Petrovska, Liljana; Hadjichristodoulou, Christos; Billinis, Charalambos

2014-01-01

West Nile Virus (WNV) is the causative agent of a vector-borne, zoonotic disease with a worldwide distribution. Recent expansion and introduction of WNV into new areas, including southern Europe, has been associated with severe disease in humans and equids, and has increased concerns regarding the need to prevent and control future WNV outbreaks. Since 2010, 524 confirmed human cases of the disease have been reported in Greece with greater than 10% mortality. Infected mosquitoes, wild birds, equids, and chickens have been detected and associated with human disease. The aim of our study was to establish a monitoring system with wild birds and reported human cases data using Geographical Information System (GIS). Potential distribution of WNV was modelled by combining wild bird serological surveillance data with environmental factors (e.g. elevation, slope, land use, vegetation density, temperature, precipitation indices, and population density). Local factors including areas of low altitude and proximity to water were important predictors of appearance of both human and wild bird cases (Odds Ratio = 1,001 95%CI = 0,723-1,386). Using GIS analysis, the identified risk factors were applied across Greece identifying the northern part of Greece (Macedonia, Thrace) western Greece and a number of Greek islands as being at highest risk of future outbreaks. The results of the analysis were evaluated and confirmed using the 161 reported human cases of the 2012 outbreak predicting correctly (Odds = 130/31 = 4,194 95%CI = 2,841-6,189) and more areas were identified for potential dispersion in the following years. Our approach verified that WNV risk can be modelled in a fast cost-effective way indicating high risk areas where prevention measures should be implemented in order to reduce the disease incidence.

Extreme Precipitation and High-Impact Landslides

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirschbaum, Dalia; Adler, Robert; Huffman, George; Peters-Lidard, Christa

2012-01-01

It is well known that extreme or prolonged rainfall is the dominant trigger of landslides; however, there remain large uncertainties in characterizing the distribution of these hazards and meteorological triggers at the global scale. Researchers have evaluated the spatiotemporal distribution of extreme rainfall and landslides at local and regional scale primarily using in situ data, yet few studies have mapped rainfall-triggered landslide distribution globally due to the dearth of landslide data and consistent precipitation information. This research uses a newly developed Global Landslide Catalog (GLC) and a 13-year satellite-based precipitation record from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. For the first time, these two unique products provide the foundation to quantitatively evaluate the co-occurence of precipitation and rainfall-triggered landslides globally. The GLC, available from 2007 to the present, contains information on reported rainfall-triggered landslide events around the world using online media reports, disaster databases, etc. When evaluating this database, we observed that 2010 had a large number of high-impact landslide events relative to previous years. This study considers how variations in extreme and prolonged satellite-based rainfall are related to the distribution of landslides over the same time scales for three active landslide areas: Central America, the Himalayan Arc, and central-eastern China. Several test statistics confirm that TRMM rainfall generally scales with the observed increase in landslide reports and fatal events for 2010 and previous years over each region. These findings suggest that the co-occurrence of satellite precipitation and landslide reports may serve as a valuable indicator for characterizing the spatiotemporal distribution of landslide-prone areas in order to establish a global rainfall-triggered landslide climatology. This research also considers the sources for this extreme rainfall, citing teleconnections from ENSO as likely contributors to regional precipitation variability. This work demonstrates the potential for using satellite-based precipitation estimates to identify potentially active landslide areas at the global scale in order to improve landslide cataloging and quantify landslide triggering at daily, monthly and yearly time scales.

Measurement of Zeta-Potential at Microchannel Wall by a Nanoscale Laser Induced Fluorescence Imaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kazoe, Yutaka; Sato, Yohei

A nanoscale laser induced fluorescence imaging was proposed by using fluorescent dye and the evanescent wave with total internal reflection of a laser beam. The present study focused on the two-dimensional measurement of zeta-potential at the microchannel wall, which is an electrostatic potential at the wall surface and a dominant parameter of electroosmotic flow. The evanescent wave, which decays exponentially from the wall, was used as an excitation light of the fluorescent dye. The fluorescent intensity detected by a CCD camera is closely related to the zeta-potential. Two kinds of fluorescent dye solution at different ionic concentrations were injected into a T-shaped microchannel, and formed a mixing flow field in the junction area. The two-dimensional distribution of zeta-potential at the microchannel wall in the pressure-driven flow field was measured. The obtained zeta-potential distribution has a transverse gradient toward the mixing flow field and was changed by the difference in the averaged velocity of pressure-driven flow. To understand the ion motion in the mixing flow field, the three-dimensional flow structure was analyzed by the velocity measurement using micron-resolution particle image velocimetry and the numerical simulation. It is concluded that the two-dimensional distribution of zeta-potential at the microchannel wall was dependent on the ion motion in the flow field, which was governed by the convection and molecular diffusion.

Metal and Nutrient Distribution and Fractionation in Managed Urban Watersheds Across the US Southwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papelis, C.; Williams, A. C.; Boettcher, T. M.

2008-12-01

Metals, metalloids, and nutrients are common contaminants of concern in arid and semi-arid watersheds in the Southwestern U.S. Because of the dramatic population growth in this part of the U.S., the potential for contamination of urban watersheds has also increased over the last few decades. Streams in urban watersheds receive storm water, urban runoff, shallow groundwater, and treated wastewater, among other sources. In addition, urban watersheds are often heavily managed to mitigate flood events and sediment- related impacts. Sediment transport can have a profound effect on the water quality of affected bodies of water. However, differences in geology, hydrogeology, and land use may have dramatic effects on the distribution of nutrients and metals in different urban watersheds. To test these effects, aqueous and sediment samples were collected above and below erosion control and other structures along two heavily managed urban watersheds, namely the Las Vegas Wash in the Las Vegas Valley Watershed, Nevada, and the Rio Salado (Salt River) in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area, Arizona. The construction of such control structures has the potential to alter the distribution of metals and metalloids in bodies of water used by wildlife. In this study, all sediments were characterized by particle size distribution, specific surface area, mineralogical composition, and scanning electron microscopy. The results of total arsenic, boron, and phosphorus extractions will be discussed, as a function of sediment characteristics. Significant differences exist between the two U.S. Southwest watersheds studied, including land use, water sources, sediment characteristics, nutrient and metal distribution, and overall system complexity. These differences lead to significant variations in metalloid and nutrient distributions in the two watersheds. Differences and similarities in the two systems will be explained as a function of sediment characteristics and watershed properties.

Assessment of organochlorine pesticides residues in higher plants from oil exploration areas of Niger Delta, Nigeria.

PubMed

Sojinu, O Samuel; Sonibare, Oluwadayo O; Ekundayo, Olusegun O; Zeng, Eddy Y

2012-09-01

The concentrations and distributions of organochlorine pesticides (OCPs) in some higher plant samples collected from oil exploration areas of the Niger Delta, Nigeria were examined. The concentrations of Σ(25)OCP ranged from 82 to 424, 44 to 200 , 34 to 358, 33 to 106 and 16 to 75 ng/g in Olomoro, Oginni, Uzere, Irri and Calabar plants, respectively. The compositional profiles of the analysed OCPs in most of the plants showed no fresh inputs in the area. The OCPs detected in the samples could have resulted from pesticide usage for intense farming activities cum the use of pesticides to control household pests and insects in the area. Drilling fluids and corrosion inhibitors used in petroleum explorations also have chlorinated compounds as additives thereby serving as potential sources of OCPs. Among the studied plants, elephant grass showed high bioaccumulation and phytoremediation potentials of OCPs. The ΣHCH concentrations exceeded the allowable daily intake limit thereby serving as potential threat to humans. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bray, R.; Lawrence, S.; Swart, R.

Namibia`s territorial waters occupy a large portion of West Africa`s continental shelf. The area to the 1,000 m isobath is comparable in size to the combined offshore areas of Gabon, Congo, Zaire, and Angola. Around half as much again lies in 1,000--2,500 m of water. The whole unlicensed part of this area will be open for bidding when the Third Licensing Round starts Oct. 1, 1998. Offshore Namibia is underexplored by drilling with only seven exploration wells drilled. Shell`s Kudu field represents a considerable gas resource with reserves of around 3 tcf and is presently the only commercial discovery.Namibia`s offshoremore » area holds enormous exploration potential. Good quality sandstone reservoirs are likely to be distributed widely, and a number of prospective structural and stratigraphic traps have been identified. The recognition of Cretaceous marine oil-prone source rocks combined with the results of new thermal history reconstruction and maturity modeling studies are particularly significant in assessment of the oil potential. The paper discusses resource development and structures, oil source potential, maturity, and hydrocarbon generation.« less

Spatial assessment of the potential risk of avian influenza A virus infection in three raptor species in Japan

PubMed Central

MORIGUCHI, Sachiko; ONUMA, Manabu; GOKA, Koichi

2016-01-01

Avian influenza A, a highly pathogenic avian influenza, is a lethal infection in certain species of wild birds, including some endangered species. Raptors are susceptible to avian influenza, and spatial risk assessment of such species may be valuable for conservation planning. We used the maximum entropy approach to generate potential distribution models of three raptor species from presence-only data for the mountain hawk-eagle Nisaetus nipalensis, northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis and peregrine falcon Falco peregrinus, surveyed during the winter from 1996 to 2001. These potential distribution maps for raptors were superimposed on avian influenza A risk maps of Japan, created from data on incidence of the virus in wild birds throughout Japan from October 2010 to March 2011. The avian influenza A risk map for the mountain hawk-eagle showed that most regions of Japan had a low risk for avian influenza A. In contrast, the maps for the northern goshawk and peregrine falcon showed that their high-risk areas were distributed on the plains along the Sea of Japan and Pacific coast. We recommend enhanced surveillance for each raptor species in high-risk areas and immediate establishment of inspection systems. At the same time, ecological risk assessments that determine factors, such as the composition of prey species, and differential sensitivity of avian influenza A virus between bird species should provide multifaceted insights into the total risk assessment of endangered species. PMID:26972333

Pollution of the sediments of the coastal zone of the Sambia Peninsula and the Curonian Spit (Southeastern Baltic Sea).

PubMed

Krek, Alexander; Krechik, Viktor; Danchenkov, Aleksandr; Krek, Elena

2018-01-01

The detailed environmental survey of the coastal zone of the Kaliningrad Region northern coast was carried out. The pollutants distribution in the silty clay fraction and calculation of ecological indexes allowed the evaluation of distribution of potentially harmful elements (PHEs). The sources of pollution in the most intensively used areas were identified, and transit and accumulation zones were allocated. A large area of anomalous content of PHEs was revealed on the underwater coastal slope of the Curonian Spit National Park, which is situated far from the sources of pollution. The alongshore bed load transport provides the contamination of the underwater slope whereas the beaches are less exposed to pollution.

Ikh Turgen Mountain Glacier Change and 3d Surface Extents Prediction Using Long Term Landsat Image and Climate Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasanbat, Elbegjargal; Erdenebat, Erdenetogtokh; Chogsom, Bolorchuluun; Lkhamjav, Ochirkhuyag; Nanzad, Lkhagvadorj

2018-04-01

The glacier is most important the freshwater resources and indicator of the climate change. The researchers noted that during last decades the glacier is melting due to global warming. The study calculates a spatial distribution of protentional change of glacier coverage in the Ikh Turgen mountain of Western Mongolia, and it integrates long-term climate data and satellite datasets. Therefore, in this experiment has tried to estimation three-dimensional surface area of the glacier. For this purpose, Normalized difference snow index (NDSI) was applied to decision tree approach, using Landsat MSS, TM, ETM+ and LC8 imagery for 1975-2016, a surface and slope for digital elevation model, precipitation and air temperature historical data of meteorological station. The potential volume area significantly changed glacier cover of the Ikh Turgen Mountain, and the area affected by highly variable precipitation and air temperature regimes. Between 1972 and 2016, a potential area of glacier area has been decreased in Ikh Turgen mountain region.

Benthic habitat map of U.S. Coral Reef Task Force Faga‘alu Bay priority study area, Tutuila, American Samoa

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cochran, Susan A.; Gibbs, Ann E.; D'Antonio, Nicole L.; Storlazzi, Curt D.

2016-05-18

The coral reef in Faga‘alu Bay, Tutuila, American Samoa, has suffered numerous natural and anthropogenic stresses. Areas once dominated by live coral are now mostly rubble surfaces covered with turf or macroalgae. In an effort to improve the health and resilience of the coral reef system, the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force selected Faga‘alu Bay as a priority study area. To support these efforts, the U.S. Geological Survey mapped nearly 1 km2 of seafloor to depths of about 60 m. Unconsolidated sediment (predominantly sand) constitutes slightly greater than 50 percent of the seafloor in the mapped area; reef and other hardbottom potentially available for coral recruitment constitute nearly 50 percent of the mapped area. Of this potentially available hardbottom, only slightly greater than 37 percent is covered with at least 10 percent coral, which is fairly evenly distributed between the reef flat, fore reef, and offshore bank/shelf. 

Sensitivity Studies of 3D Reservoir Simulation at the I-Lan Geothermal Area in Taiwan Using TOUGH2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuo, C. W.; Song, S. R.

2014-12-01

A large scale geothermal project conducted by National Science Council is initiated recently in I-Lan south area, northeastern Taiwan. The goal of this national project is to generate at least 5 MW electricity from geothermal energy. To achieve this goal, an integrated team which consists of various specialties are held together to investigate I-Lan area comprehensively. For example, I-Lan geological data, petrophysical analysis, seismicity, temperature distribution, hydrology, geochemistry, heat source study etc. were performed to build a large scale 3D conceptual model of the geothermal potential sites. In addition, not only a well of 3000m deep but also several shallow wells are currently drilling to give us accurate information about the deep underground. According to the current conceptual model, the target area is bounded by two main faults, Jiaosi and Choshui faults. The geothermal gradient measured at one drilling well (1200m) is about 49.1˚C/km. The geothermal reservoir is expected to occur at a fractured geological formation, Siling sandstone layer. The preliminary results of this area from all the investigations are used as input parameters to create a realistic numerical reservoir model. This work is using numerical simulator TOUGH2/EOS1 to study the geothermal energy potential in I-Lan area. Once we can successfully predict the geothermal energy potential in this area and generate 5 MW electricity, we can apply the similar methodology to the other potential sites in Taiwan, and therefore increase the percentage of renewable energy in the generation of electricity. A large scale of three-dimensional subsurface geological model is built mainly based on the seismic exploration of the subsurface structure and well log data. The dimensions of the reservoir model in x, y, and z coordinates are 20x10x5 km, respectively. Once the conceptual model and the well locations are set up appropriately based on the field data, sensitivity studies on production and injection rates, heat source, fractures, and all the relevant parameters are performed to evaluate their effects on temperature distribution of reservoir for 30 years. Through these sensitivity studies, we can design the better geothermal system in I-Lan area and reduce the risk of exploitation.

Reconciling Biodiversity Conservation and Widespread Deployment of Renewable Energy Technologies in the UK

PubMed Central

Gove, Benedict; Williams, Leah J.; Beresford, Alison E.; Roddis, Philippa; Campbell, Colin; Teuten, Emma; Langston, Rowena H. W.; Bradbury, Richard B.

2016-01-01

Renewable energy will potentially make an important contribution towards the dual aims of meeting carbon emission reduction targets and future energy demand. However, some technologies have considerable potential to impact on the biodiversity of the environments in which they are placed. In this study, an assessment was undertaken of the realistic deployment potential of a range of renewable energy technologies in the UK, considering constraints imposed by biodiversity conservation priorities. We focused on those energy sources that have the potential to make important energy contributions but which might conflict with biodiversity conservation objectives. These included field-scale solar, bioenergy crops, wind energy (both onshore and offshore), wave and tidal stream energy. The spatially-explicit analysis considered the potential opportunity available for each technology, at various levels of ecological risk. The resultant maps highlight the energy resource available, physical and policy constraints to deployment, and ecological sensitivity (based on the distribution of protected areas and sensitive species). If the technologies are restricted to areas which currently appear not to have significant ecological constraints, the total potential energy output from these energy sources was estimated to be in the region of 5,547 TWh/yr. This would be sufficient to meet projected energy demand in the UK, and help to achieve carbon reduction targets. However, we highlight two important caveats. First, further ecological monitoring and surveillance is required to improve understanding of wildlife distributions and therefore potential impacts of utilising these energy sources. This is likely to reduce the total energy available, especially at sea. Second, some of the technologies under investigation are currently not deployed commercially. Consequently this potential energy will only be available if continued effort is put into developing these energy sources/technologies, to enable realisation of their full potential. PMID:27224050

Reconciling Biodiversity Conservation and Widespread Deployment of Renewable Energy Technologies in the UK.

PubMed

Gove, Benedict; Williams, Leah J; Beresford, Alison E; Roddis, Philippa; Campbell, Colin; Teuten, Emma; Langston, Rowena H W; Bradbury, Richard B

2016-01-01

Renewable energy will potentially make an important contribution towards the dual aims of meeting carbon emission reduction targets and future energy demand. However, some technologies have considerable potential to impact on the biodiversity of the environments in which they are placed. In this study, an assessment was undertaken of the realistic deployment potential of a range of renewable energy technologies in the UK, considering constraints imposed by biodiversity conservation priorities. We focused on those energy sources that have the potential to make important energy contributions but which might conflict with biodiversity conservation objectives. These included field-scale solar, bioenergy crops, wind energy (both onshore and offshore), wave and tidal stream energy. The spatially-explicit analysis considered the potential opportunity available for each technology, at various levels of ecological risk. The resultant maps highlight the energy resource available, physical and policy constraints to deployment, and ecological sensitivity (based on the distribution of protected areas and sensitive species). If the technologies are restricted to areas which currently appear not to have significant ecological constraints, the total potential energy output from these energy sources was estimated to be in the region of 5,547 TWh/yr. This would be sufficient to meet projected energy demand in the UK, and help to achieve carbon reduction targets. However, we highlight two important caveats. First, further ecological monitoring and surveillance is required to improve understanding of wildlife distributions and therefore potential impacts of utilising these energy sources. This is likely to reduce the total energy available, especially at sea. Second, some of the technologies under investigation are currently not deployed commercially. Consequently this potential energy will only be available if continued effort is put into developing these energy sources/technologies, to enable realisation of their full potential.

Selenium Distribution and Fractionation in a Managed Urban Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Papelis, C.; Boettcher, T. M.; Harris-Burr, R. D.

2006-12-01

Metals, and metalloids, are common contaminants of concern in arid and semi-arid watersheds in the Southwestern U.S. Because of the dramatic population growth in this part of the U.S., the potential for contamination of urban watersheds has also increased over the last few decades. Streams in urban watersheds receive storm water, urban runoff, shallow groundwater, and treated wastewater. In addition, urban watersheds are often heavily managed to mitigate flood events and sediment-related impacts. Clearly, sediment transport can have a profound effect on the water quality of affected bodies of water, not only by affecting water clarity, but also by facilitating the transport of chemical constituents, as well as microbiological components. The Las Vegas Wash (Wash) is the lowest point in the Las Vegas Valley Watershed and receives storm water, urban runoff, and treated wastewater from the entire Las Vegas Valley. To minimize erosion, caused by the dramatic wastewater flow increase during the last few decades, several erosion control structures are being built. In addition, wetlands being constructed in the Wash area receive most of the water from the Wash. The construction of these ponds has the potential to alter the distribution of metals and metalloids in bodies of water used by wildlife. An element of particular concern is selenium, a metalloid commonly found at elevated concentrations in soils of the U.S. Southwest. To assess the potential adverse impact on water quality, sediment samples were collected along the Wash, upstream and downstream of erosion control structures, and around current and future constructed wetlands. The sediments were characterized by particle size distribution, specific surface area, mineralogical composition, organic carbon content, and scanning electron microscopy. The total selenium, as well as the percentages associated with exchangeable, organic, carbonate, and oxide sediment fractions were determined. The distribution of selenium as a function of sediment properties and the potential of selenium availability in this environment will be discussed.

Differences in perceptions of communication, tourism benefits, and management issues in a protected area of rural Kenya.

PubMed

Bruyere, Brett L; Beh, Adam W; Lelengula, Geoffrey

2009-01-01

With record-breaking tourist visits in Kenya in 2005-2006, communities near the country's renowned protected areas must undertake or revisit planning efforts to conserve and enhance the region's natural, social, and economic resources. This article examines the differences between two stakeholder groups in the Samburu region of central Kenya: (1) protected area leadership and staff; and (2) members of the communities adjacent to the protected areas. Based on the results and analysis of 30 in-depth interviews, the authors identify differences between protected area staff and their community members regarding perceptions about communication between the two groups, and the economic benefits of tourism. The different stakeholders agreed, however, about challenges related to equitable distribution of tourism-based employment and revenue. The results indicate a need to reach consensus about what constitutes sufficient communication between national reserves and their community, and to what extent tourism-related revenue and employment should be distributed within the region. A discussion of the potential role of indicators and standards to make such decisions is presented.

Differences in Perceptions of Communication, Tourism Benefits, and Management Issues in a Protected Area of Rural Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bruyere, Brett L.; Beh, Adam W.; Lelengula, Geoffrey

2009-01-01

With record-breaking tourist visits in Kenya in 2005-2006, communities near the country’s renowned protected areas must undertake or revisit planning efforts to conserve and enhance the region’s natural, social, and economic resources. This article examines the differences between two stakeholder groups in the Samburu region of central Kenya: (1) protected area leadership and staff; and (2) members of the communities adjacent to the protected areas. Based on the results and analysis of 30 in-depth interviews, the authors identify differences between protected area staff and their community members regarding perceptions about communication between the two groups, and the economic benefits of tourism. The different stakeholders agreed, however, about challenges related to equitable distribution of tourism-based employment and revenue. The results indicate a need to reach consensus about what constitutes sufficient communication between national reserves and their community, and to what extent tourism-related revenue and employment should be distributed within the region. A discussion of the potential role of indicators and standards to make such decisions is presented.

ERP manifestations of processing printed words at different psycholinguistic levels: time course and scalp distribution.

PubMed

Bentin, S; Mouchetant-Rostaing, Y; Giard, M H; Echallier, J F; Pernier, J

1999-05-01

The aim of the present study was to examine the time course and scalp distribution of electrophysiological manifestations of the visual word recognition mechanism. Event-related potentials (ERPs) elicited by visually presented lists of words were recorded while subjects were involved in a series of oddball tasks. The distinction between the designated target and nontarget stimuli was manipulated to induce a different level of processing in each session (visual, phonological/phonetic, phonological/lexical, and semantic). The ERPs of main interest in this study were those elicited by nontarget stimuli. In the visual task the targets were twice as big as the nontargets. Words, pseudowords, strings of consonants, strings of alphanumeric symbols, and strings of forms elicited a sharp negative peak at 170 msec (N170); their distribution was limited to the occipito-temporal sites. For the left hemisphere electrode sites, the N170 was larger for orthographic than for nonorthographic stimuli and vice versa for the right hemisphere. The ERPs elicited by all orthographic stimuli formed a clearly distinct cluster that was different from the ERPs elicited by nonorthographic stimuli. In the phonological/phonetic decision task the targets were words and pseudowords rhyming with the French word vitrail, whereas the nontargets were words, pseudowords, and strings of consonants that did not rhyme with vitrail. The most conspicuous potential was a negative peak at 320 msec, which was similarly elicited by pronounceable stimuli but not by nonpronounceable stimuli. The N320 was bilaterally distributed over the middle temporal lobe and was significantly larger over the left than over the right hemisphere. In the phonological/lexical processing task we compared the ERPs elicited by strings of consonants (among which words were selected), pseudowords (among which words were selected), and by words (among which pseudowords were selected). The most conspicuous potential in these tasks was a negative potential peaking at 350 msec (N350) elicited by phonologically legal but not by phonologically illegal stimuli. The distribution of the N350 was similar to that of the N320, but it was broader and including temporo-parietal areas that were not activated in the "rhyme" task. Finally, in the semantic task the targets were abstract words, and the nontargets were concrete words, pseudowords, and strings of consonants. The negative potential in this task peaked at 450 msec. Unlike the lexical decision, the negative peak in this task significantly distinguished not only between phonologically legal and illegal words but also between meaningful (words) and meaningless (pseudowords) phonologically legal structures. The distribution of the N450 included the areas activated in the lexical decision task but also areas in the fronto-central regions. The present data corroborated the functional neuroanatomy of word recognition systems suggested by other neuroimaging methods and described their timecourse, supporting a cascade-type process that involves different but interconnected neural modules, each responsible for a different level of processing word-related information.

Geographical distribution of Culicoides (DIPTERA: CERATOPOGONIDAE) in mainland Portugal: Presence/absence modelling of vector and potential vector species.

PubMed

Ramilo, David W; Nunes, Telmo; Madeira, Sara; Boinas, Fernando; da Fonseca, Isabel Pereira

2017-01-01

Vector-borne diseases are not only accounted responsible for their burden on human health-care systems, but also known to cause economic constraints to livestock and animal production. Animals are affected directly by the transmitted pathogens and indirectly when animal movement is restricted. Distribution of such diseases depends on climatic and social factors, namely, environmental changes, globalization, trade and unplanned urbanization. Culicoides biting midges are responsible for the transmission of several pathogenic agents with relevant economic impact. Due to a fragmentary knowledge of their ecology, occurrence is difficult to predict consequently, limiting the control of these arthropod vectors. In order to understand the distribution of Culicoides species, in mainland Portugal, data collected during the National Entomologic Surveillance Program for Bluetongue disease (2005-2013), were used for statistical evaluation. Logistic regression analysis was preformed and prediction maps (per season) were obtained for vector and potentially vector species. The variables used at the present study were selected from WorldClim (two climatic variables) and CORINE databases (twenty-two land cover variables). This work points to an opposite distribution of C. imicola and species from the Obsoletus group within mainland Portugal. Such findings are evidenced in autumn, with the former appearing in Central and Southern regions. Although appearing northwards, on summer and autumn, C. newsteadi reveals a similar distribution to C. imicola. The species C. punctatus appears in all Portuguese territory throughout the year. Contrary, C. pulicaris is poorly caught in all areas of mainland Portugal, being paradoxical present near coastal areas and higher altitude regions.

Geographical distribution of Culicoides (DIPTERA: CERATOPOGONIDAE) in mainland Portugal: Presence/absence modelling of vector and potential vector species

PubMed Central

Madeira, Sara; Boinas, Fernando; da Fonseca, Isabel Pereira

2017-01-01

Vector-borne diseases are not only accounted responsible for their burden on human health-care systems, but also known to cause economic constraints to livestock and animal production. Animals are affected directly by the transmitted pathogens and indirectly when animal movement is restricted. Distribution of such diseases depends on climatic and social factors, namely, environmental changes, globalization, trade and unplanned urbanization. Culicoides biting midges are responsible for the transmission of several pathogenic agents with relevant economic impact. Due to a fragmentary knowledge of their ecology, occurrence is difficult to predict consequently, limiting the control of these arthropod vectors. In order to understand the distribution of Culicoides species, in mainland Portugal, data collected during the National Entomologic Surveillance Program for Bluetongue disease (2005–2013), were used for statistical evaluation. Logistic regression analysis was preformed and prediction maps (per season) were obtained for vector and potentially vector species. The variables used at the present study were selected from WorldClim (two climatic variables) and CORINE databases (twenty-two land cover variables). This work points to an opposite distribution of C. imicola and species from the Obsoletus group within mainland Portugal. Such findings are evidenced in autumn, with the former appearing in Central and Southern regions. Although appearing northwards, on summer and autumn, C. newsteadi reveals a similar distribution to C. imicola. The species C. punctatus appears in all Portuguese territory throughout the year. Contrary, C. pulicaris is poorly caught in all areas of mainland Portugal, being paradoxical present near coastal areas and higher altitude regions. PMID:28683145

Predicting the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of major native non-food bioenergy plants in China.

PubMed

Wang, Wenguo; Tang, Xiaoyu; Zhu, Qili; Pan, Ke; Hu, Qichun; He, Mingxiong; Li, Jiatang

2014-01-01

Planting non-food bioenergy crops on marginal lands is an alternative bioenergy development solution in China. Native non-food bioenergy plants are also considered to be a wise choice to reduce the threat of invasive plants. In this study, the impacts of climate change (a consensus of IPCC scenarios A2a for 2080) on the potential distribution of nine non-food bioenergy plants native to China (viz., Pistacia chinensis, Cornus wilsoniana, Xanthoceras sorbifolia, Vernicia fordii, Sapium sebiferum, Miscanthus sinensis, M. floridulus, M. sacchariflorus and Arundo donax) were analyzed using a MaxEnt species distribution model. The suitable habitats of the nine non-food plants were distributed in the regions east of the Mongolian Plateau and the Tibetan Plateau, where the arable land is primarily used for food production. Thus, the large-scale cultivation of those plants for energy production will have to rely on the marginal lands. The variables of "precipitation of the warmest quarter" and "annual mean temperature" were the most important bioclimatic variables for most of the nine plants according to the MaxEnt modeling results. Global warming in coming decades may result in a decrease in the extent of suitable habitat in the tropics but will have little effect on the total distribution area of each plant. The results indicated that it will be possible to grow these plants on marginal lands within these areas in the future. This work should be beneficial for the domestication and cultivation of those bioenergy plants and should facilitate land-use planning for bioenergy crops in China.

Understanding natural systems; a perspective for land-use planning in Appalachian Kentucky

USGS Publications Warehouse

Newell, Wayne L.

1978-01-01

An eight-county area at the headwaters of the Kentucky River has been designated the Kentucky River Area Development District (KRADD) by the Appalachian Regional Commission. The objective of the project described in this report has been to provide materials to KRADD planners in a format and containing terminology usable by local people untrained in earth science. Experimental maps (not included in this report) have been prepared largely from preexisting data. Time and cost limitations required a regional analysis as well as somewhat more detailed examples of selected localities. Most of the maps produced to meet these needs show the abundance and distribution of naturally occurring materials and the areas affected by various geomorphic processes. Three types of maps, showing current land use, slope, and flood-prone areas, present both basic and derived data directly applicable to specific land-use decisions. Basic map information on quality and quantity of surface and ground water, bedrock and surficial geology, and mineral fuels can be interpreted for a wide variety of current and potential uses. Texts accompanying the maps explain bedrock control of geomorphic processes, distribution and significance of surficial deposits, and hydrologic characteristics of the intricately dissected eastern Kentucky terrain. Within this conceptual framework, geomorphic processes and the landscape may be evaluated in humanly significant terms of low to high potential risk, thereby indicating both opportunities and limitations for land use.

A review of the palm genus Acrocomia: Neotropical green gold

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The genus Acrocomia, popularly known as macaw palm or macaúba, occurs in savanna areas and open forests of tropical America, with distribution from Central to southern South America. They are important oleaginous palm trees, due to their role in ecosystems, local economies, and their potential for b...

Distribution of Gull Specific Molecular Marker in Coastal Areas of Lake Ontario

EPA Science Inventory

Gulls have been implicated as primary sources of fecal contamination in the Great Lakes, a fact that may have health implications due to the potential spread of microbial pathogens by waterfowl. To better understand the spatial variability of gull fecal contamination, a gull-spe...

Distribution and abundance of Neotoma in western Oregon and Washington.

Treesearch

Andrew B. Carey; Christine C. Maguire; Brian L. Biswell; Todd M. Wilson

1999-01-01

Bushy-tailed woodrats (Neotoma cinerea) and dusky-footed woodrats (N. fuscipes) add substantially to the prey base of many avian and mammalian predators. High biomass of woodrats can reduce markedly area requirements of predators; thus, management for woodrats has potential in conservation. But patterns of abundance of woodrats...

Predicted Distribution of Visceral Leishmaniasis Vectors (Diptera: Psychodidae; Phlebotominae) in Iran: A Niche Model Study.

PubMed

Hanafi-Bojd, A A; Rassi, Y; Yaghoobi-Ershadi, M R; Haghdoost, A A; Akhavan, A A; Charrahy, Z; Karimi, A

2015-12-01

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is an important vector-borne disease in Iran. Till now, Leishmania infantum has been detected from five species of sand flies in the country including Phlebotomus kandelakii, Phlebotomus major s.l., Phlebotomus perfiliewi, Phlebotomus alexandri and Phlebotomus tobbi. Also, Phlebotomus keshishiani was found to be infected with Leishmania parasites. This study aimed at predicting the probable niches and distribution of vectors of visceral leishmaniasis in Iran. Data on spatial distribution studies of sand flies were obtained from Iranian database on sand flies. Sample points were included in data from faunistic studies on sand flies conducted during 1995-2013. MaxEnt software was used to predict the appropriate ecological niches for given species, using climatic and topographical data. Distribution maps were prepared and classified in ArcGIS to find main ecological niches of the vectors and hot spots for VL transmission in Iran. Phlebotomus kandelakii, Ph. major s.l. and Ph. alexandri seem to have played a more important role in VL transmission in Iran, so this study focuses on them. Representations of MaxEnt model for probability of distribution of the studied sand flies showed high contribution of climatological and topographical variables to predict the potential distribution of three vector species. Isothermality was found to be an environmental variable with the highest gain when used in isolation for Ph. kandelakii and Ph. major s.l., while for Ph. alexandri, the most effective variable was precipitation of the coldest quarter. The results of this study present the first prediction on distribution of sand fly vectors of VL in Iran. The predicted distributions were matched with the disease-endemic areas in the country, while it was found that there were some unaffected areas with the potential transmission. More comprehensive studies are recommended on the ecology and vector competence of VL vectors in the country. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Spatial distribution and potential sources of trace metals in insoluble particles of snow from Urumqi, China.

PubMed

Li, Xiaolan; Jiang, Fengqing; Wang, Shaoping; Turdi, Muyesser; Zhang, Zhaoyong

2015-01-01

The purpose of this work is to characterize trace elements in snow in urban-suburb gradient over Urumqi city, China. The spatial distribution patterns of 11 trace metals in insoluble particulate matters of snow were revealed by using 102 snow samples collected in and around urban areas of Urumqi, a city suffering from severe wintertime air pollution in China. Similar spatial distribution for Mn, Cu, Zn, Ni, and Pb was found and their two significant high-value areas located in the west and east, respectively, and a high-value area in the south, which were correlated with factory emissions, traffic activities, and construction fugitive dust. The high-value areas of Cr, Ni, and V occurred in the northeast corner and along main traffic paths, which were linked to oil refinery and vehicular emissions. High value of Be presented in the west of the city. The high-value area of Co in the northeast could be related to local soil. Cd and U displayed relatively even spatial patterns in the urban area. In view of distance from the urban center, e.g., from the first circular belt to the fourth circular belt, except Be, V, Cd, and U, the contents of other metals generally decreased from the first circular belt to the forth circular belt, implying the effect of human activity clearly. Additionally, prevailing northwesterly winds and occasionally southeasterly winds in winter were associated with decreased, generally, concentrations of trace metal in snow from the urban center to the southern suburb along a northwest and southeast transect. The information on concentrations and spatial distributions of these metals in insoluble particles of snow in winter will be valuable for further environmental protection and planning.

Observations of the distributions of five fish species in a small Appalachian stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larson, Gary L.; Hoffman, Robert L.; Moore, S.E.

2002-01-01

The notion has been growing that resident stream fishes exhibit a greater capacity for movement than was previously thought. In this study, we recorded the distributions of four resident fish species (longnose dace Rhinichthys cataractae, blacknose dace R. atratulus, mottled sculpin Cottus bairdi, and rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss) and one nonresident species (central stoneroller Campostoma anomalum) in Rock Creek, a small tributary of Cosby Creek in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, over the period 1979a??1995. During this study, 1,998 individuals of resident species were collected from stream sections considered to be within a common area of distribution for each species. Forty-five individuals of resident and nonresident species were captured upstream of these areas, and eight of these fish were considered to be larger than individuals considered typical for each species. Small mammal dispersal theory concepts were used to classify and describe fish movements outside of common areas of distribution. These movements were identified as important in maintaining population connectivity within stream drainages, contributing to reducing the potential for local extinctions of populations and to the recolonization of unoccupied habitats. This study highlights the need for continued study of fish movements in stream drainages and for development of appropriate resource management strategies based partly on the spatial dynamics of fish populations and communities.

Geology, hydrology, and ground-water quality at the Byron Superfund site near Byron, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kay, Robert T.; Yeskis, Douglas J.; Bolen, William J.; Rauman, James R.; Prinos, Scott T.

1997-01-01

A study was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency to define the geohydrology and contaminant distribution at a Superfund site near Byron, Illinois. Geologic units of interest beneath the site are the St. Peter Sandstone; the shale, dolomite and sandstone of the Glenwood Formation; the dolomite of the Platteville and Galena Groups; and sands, gravels, tills and loess of Quaternary age. The hydrologic units of interest are the unconsolidated aquifer, Galena-Platteville aquifer, Harmony Hill Shale semiconfining unit, and the St. Peter aquifer. Ground-water flow generally is from the upland areas northwest and southwest toward the Rock River. Water levels indicate the potential for downward ground-water flow in most of the area except near the Rock River. The Galena-Platteville aquifer can be subdivided into four zones characterized by differing water-table altitudes, hydraulic gradients, and vertical and horizontal permeabilities. Geophysical, hydraulic, and aquifer-test data indicate that lithology, stratigraphy, and tectonic structures affect the distribution of primary and secondary porosity of dolomite in the Galena and Platteville Groups, which affects the permeability distribution in the Galena-Platteville aquifer. The distribution of cyanide, chlorinated aliphatic hydrocarbons, and aromatic hydrocarbons in ground water indicates that these contaminants are derived from multiple sources in the study area. Contaminants in the northern part of this area migrate northwest to the Rock River. Contaminants in the central and southern parts of this area appear to migrate to the southwest in the general direction of the Rock River.

Ocean Color Products Supporting the Assessment of Good Environmental Status: Development of a Spatial Distribution Model for the Seagrass Posidonia Oceanica (L.) Delille, 1813

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zucchetta, M.; Taji, M. A.; Mangin, A.; Pastres, R.

2015-12-01

Posidonia oceanica (L.) Delile, 1813 is a seagrass species endemic to the Mediterranean Sea, which is considered as one of the key habitats of the coastal areas. This species forms large meadows sensitive to several anthropogenic pressures, that can be regarded as indicators of environment quality in coastal environments and its distributional patterns should be take into account when evaluating the Environmental Status following the Ecosystem approach promoted by the Mediterranean Action Plan of UNEP and the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive (2008/56/EC). The aim of this study was to develop a Species Distribution Model for P. oceanica, to be applied to the whole Mediterranean North African coast, in order to obtain an estimation of the potential distribution of this species in the region to be considered as an indicator for the assessment of good Environmental Status. As the study area is a data-poor zone with regard to seagrass distribution (i.e. only for some areas detailed distribution maps are available), the Species Distribution Model (SDM) was calibrated using high resolution data from 5 Mediterranean sites, located in Italy and Spain and validated using available data from the North African coast. Usually, when developing SDMs species occupancy data is available at coarser resolution than the information of environmental variables, and thus has to be downscaled at the appropriate grain to be coupled to the environmental conditions. Tackling the case of P. oceanica we had to face the opposite problem: the quality (in terms of resolution) of the information on seagrass distribution is generally very high compared to the environmental data available over large scale in marine domains (e.g. global bathymetry data). The high resolution application and the model transfer (from calibration areas to North African coast) was possible taking advantage of Ocean Color products: the probability of presence of the species in a given area was modelled using a binomial generalized linear model as a function of the bathymetry and some water characteristics mainly obtained from satellite data. Full resolution (c.a. 300m) Medium Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MERIS) sensor imagery have been processed in order to extract a set of environmental variables to be coupled to seagrass distribution in the areas used to calibrate the model and for the whole North Africa coast (i.e. model application area). For the period 2003-2011 we processed data of: 1) the diffuse attenuation coefficient 2) coloured dissolved organic matter 3) Particle backscatter at 443nm; 4) Euphotic depth, estimated considering the coefficient of extinction of light; 5) Euphotic depth/ depth ratio, combining the estimation of euphotic depth with the bathymetry. Other variables have been resampled at MERIS full resolution, like data obtained from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS; Sea Surface Temperature and Photosynthetically Available Radiation) or by model simulation (e.g. water salinity). The fitted model suggests that water transparency plays a major role, but also other variables, such as salinity and photosynthetically available radiation at surface, are important at larger spatial scales in explaining meadows distribution. The availability of high resolution time-series of input data allowed us to apply the validated model to the whole NA coast. Using model predictions to identify areas with suitable conditions for P. oceanica, it was possible to develop an indicator of potential habitat use and to define baseline reference conditions, necessary for the assessment of Good Environmental Status in Mediterranean coastal waters. This work shows how the Ocean and Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) within the Sentinel-3 mission can be exploited - thanks to the way opened by MERIS - to carry out the operational monitoring needed for the implementation of the UNEP MAP and EU MSFD Ecosystem Approach to the integrated management of land, water and living resources.

Spatial patterns of mesozooplankton communities in the Northwestern Iberian shelf during autumn shaped by key environmental factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domínguez, Rula; Garrido, Susana; Santos, A. Miguel P.; dos Santos, Antonina

2017-11-01

The autumn mesozooplankton community structure and spatial distribution was investigated in relation to the prevalent hydrographic conditions at the Northwestern Iberian shelf (38.5°-41.6°N), a major spawning ground for small pelagic fish species. Copepods clearly dominated the mesozooplankton community, followed by Cladocera, Appendicularia, Cirripedia, Bivalvia larvae and Chaetognata. Three different groups were identified according to their distribution: a northern coastal group (A), a southern coastal group with two stations in the northern area (B), and a shelf group (C), each delimited to areas with distinct oceanographic conditions. The boundary between the coastal groups A and B was coincident with areas of prominent geographic features, particularly a submarine canyon (Nazaré canyon) and a cape (Cabo Carvoeiro), both inducing abrupt changes in the local/regional patterns of water mass circulation. Group B includes a few northern stations that can be related to river discharges while the southern stations can be defined by upwelling conditions at that time. The distribution of some relevant species can be related to biophysical variables (temperature, salinity, Chlorophyll a). Some copepod taxa were generally coincident with high concentrations of chlorophyll a abundance (e.g. Temora spp., Oncaea spp.), while the distribution of other groups such as Cladocera or bivalve veliger larvae was correlated to temperature and/or salinity gradients caused by river discharges. Other important taxa as Paracalanus and Clausocalanus spp. or Oithona spp. showed no particular influence of any of the measured hydrological variables. This work is the first description of mesozooplankton assemblages and their distribution pattern in a broad area off Western Iberia during autumn. It contributes to understanding the dynamics of zooplankton in the area, increasing the knowledge of the drivers of plankton community variability and providing information about their potential as food for small pelagic fish species spawning in the area throughout the season.

Impact of ballistic body armour and load carriage on walking patterns and perceived comfort.

PubMed

Park, Huiju; Branson, Donna; Petrova, Adriana; Peksoz, Semra; Jacobson, Bert; Warren, Aric; Goad, Carla; Kamenidis, Panagiotis

2013-01-01

This study investigated the impact of weight magnitude and distribution of body armour and carrying loads on military personnel's walking patterns and comfort perceptions. Spatio-temporal parameters of walking, plantar pressure and contact area were measured while seven healthy male right-handed military students wore seven different garments of varying weight (0.06, 9, 18 and 27 kg) and load distribution (balanced and unbalanced, on the front and back torso). Higher weight increased the foot contact time with the floor. In particular, weight placement on the non-dominant side of the front torso resulted in the greatest stance phase and double support. Increased plantar pressure and contact area observed during heavier loads entail increased impact forces, which can cause overuse injuries and foot blisters. Participants reported increasingly disagreeable pressure and strain in the shoulder, neck and lower back during heavier weight conditions and unnatural walking while wearing unbalanced weight distributed loads. This study shows the potentially synergistic impact of wearing body armour vest with differential loads on body movement and comfort perception. This study found that soldiers should balance loads, avoiding load placement on the non-dominant side front torso, thus minimising mobility restriction and potential injury risk. Implications for armour vest design modifications can also be found in the results.

Separating the FN400 and N400 potentials across recognition memory experiments

PubMed Central

Stróżak, Paweł; Abedzadeh, Delora; Curran, Tim

2016-01-01

There is a growing debate as to whether frontally distributed FN400 potentials reflect familiarity-based recognition or are functionally identical to centro-parietal N400 reflecting semantic processing. We conducted two experiments in which event-related potentials (ERPs) associated with semantic priming and recognition were recorded, either when priming was embedded within a recognition test (Experiment 1), or when these two phases were separated (Experiment 2). In Experiment 1, we observed 300–500 ms differences between primed and unprimed old words as well as differences between old and new primed words, but these two effects did not differ topographically and both showed midline central maxima. In Experiment 2, the N400 for priming was recorded exclusively during encoding and again showed a midline central distribution. The ERP component of recognition was only found for unrelated words (not primed previously during encoding), and also showed a midline central maximum, but, in addition, was present in the left frontal area of the scalp. Conversely, the priming effect was absent in the left frontal cluster. This pattern of results indicate that FN400 and N400 potentials share similar neural generators; but when priming and recognition are not confounded, these potentials do not entirely overlap in terms of topographical distribution and presumably reflect functionally distinct processes. PMID:26776478

Water resources of the Marquette Iron Range area, Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wiitala, Sulo Werner; Newport, Thomas Gwyn; Skinner, Earl L.

1967-01-01

Large quantities of water are needed in the beneficiation and pelletizing processes by which the ore mined from low-grade iron-formations is upgraded into an excellent raw material for the iron and steel industry. Extensive reserves of low-grade iron-formation available for development herald an intensification of the demands upon the area's water supplies. This study was designed to provide water facts for public and private agencies in planning orderly development and in guiding the management of the water resources to meet existing and new requirements. Inland lakes and streams are the best potential sources of water for immediate development. The natural flow available for 90 percent of the time in the Middle and East Branches of the Escanaba River, the Carp River, and the Michigamme River is about 190 cubic feet per second. Potential storage sites are identified, and their complete development could increase the available supply from the above streams to about 450 cubic feet per second. Outwash deposits are the best potential sources of ground water. Large supplies could be developed from extensive outwash deposits in the eastern part of the area adjacent to Goose Lake Outlet and the East Branch Escanaba River. Other areas of outwash occur in the vicinity of Humboldt, West Branch Creek, and along the stream valleys. Streamflow data were used to make rough approximations of the ground-water potential in some areas. In general, however, the available data were not sufficient to permit quantitative evaluation of the potential ground-water supplies. Chemical quality of the surface and ground waters of the area is generally acceptable for most uses. Suspended sediment in the form of mineral tailings in effluents from ore-processing plants is a potential problem. Existing plants use settling basins to effectively remove most of the suspended material. Available records indicate that suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in the receiving waters have not been significantly increased by these operations. Present water use is about 60 cubic feet per second in the area. Thus, available water supplies are believed to be adequate for existing and foreseeable new uses. Water management, rather than water availability, is of prime consideration in this area. Time distribution of available water supplies, distribution of water to points of use, effect of surface-water development upon ground water and vice versa, and possible conflicts with competing uses are some of the management problems that are discussed. The presence of many inland lakes, favorable storage sites on streams, and several promising acquifers provide flexibility in possible water-management operations. A discussion of the interrelationships between surface and ground water and a ground-water budget are presented to render a better understanding of the hydrologic system with which water management will be concerned.

Mapping current and potential distribution of non-native Prosopis juliflora in the Afar region of Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wakie, Tewodros; Evangelista, Paul H.; Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Laituri, Melinda

2014-01-01

We used correlative models with species occurrence points, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) vegetation indices, and topo-climatic predictors to map the current distribution and potential habitat of invasive Prosopis juliflora in Afar, Ethiopia. Time-series of MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Indices (EVI) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Indices (NDVI) with 250 m2 spatial resolution were selected as remote sensing predictors for mapping distributions, while WorldClim bioclimatic products and generated topographic variables from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission product (SRTM) were used to predict potential infestations. We ran Maxent models using non-correlated variables and the 143 species-occurrence points. Maxent generated probability surfaces were converted into binary maps using the 10-percentile logistic threshold values. Performances of models were evaluated using area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). Our results indicate that the extent of P. juliflora invasion is approximately 3,605 km2 in the Afar region (AUC = 0.94), while the potential habitat for future infestations is 5,024 km2 (AUC = 0.95). Our analyses demonstrate that time-series of MODIS vegetation indices and species occurrence points can be used with Maxent modeling software to map the current distribution of P. juliflora, while topo-climatic variables are good predictors of potential habitat in Ethiopia. Our results can quantify current and future infestations, and inform management and policy decisions for containing P. juliflora. Our methods can also be replicated for managing invasive species in other East African countries.

Resource Exploration Approaches on Mars Using Multidisciplinary Earth-based Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wyrick, D. Y.; Ferrill, D. A.; Morris, A. P.; Smart, K. J.

2005-12-01

Water is the most important Martian exploration target - key to finding evidence of past life and providing a crucial resource for future exploration. Water is thought to be present in vapor, liquid, and ice phases on Mars. Except for ice in polar regions, little direct evidence of current surface accumulation of water has been found. Existing research has addressed potential source areas, including meteoric water, glacial ice, and volcanic centers and areas of discharge such as large paleo-outflow channels. Missing from these analyses is characterization of migration pathways of water in the subsurface from sources to discharge areas, and the present distribution of water. It has been estimated that ~90% of the global inventory of water on Mars resides in the subsurface. Targeting potential subsurface accumulations has relied primarily on theoretical modeling and geomorphic analysis. While global scale thermal modeling and analysis of the stability of ground ice provide important constraints on potential locations of large deposits of ice or liquid water, these studies have not accounted for variations in stratigraphy and structure that may strongly influence local distribution. Depth to water or ice on Mars is thought to be controlled primarily by latitude and elevation. However, the distribution of outflow channels clearly indicates that structural, stratigraphic, and geomorphic features all play important roles in determining past and present distribution of water and ice on Mars as they do on Earth. Resource exploration and extraction is a multi-billion dollar industry on Earth that has developed into a highly sophisticated enterprise with constantly improving exploration technologies. Common to all successful exploration programs, whether for hydrocarbons or water, is detailed analysis and integration of all available geologic, geophysical and remotely sensed data. The primary issues for identification and characterization of water or hydrocarbon resource accumulations can be summarized by three factors: trap, reservoir and charge. This presentation focuses on a detailed characterization of the fundamental elements believed to control trap, reservoir, and charge with respect to the identification of locations for extractable resources on Mars, primarily water and ice, but also gas hydrates. This new approach to resource exploration will also provide guidance for future research and exploration activities, including movement of methane from the subsurface to the surface and potential habitat sites for past or current life on Mars.

MOVES-Matrix and distributed computing for microscale line source dispersion analysis.

PubMed

Liu, Haobing; Xu, Xiaodan; Rodgers, Michael O; Xu, Yanzhi Ann; Guensler, Randall L

2017-07-01

MOVES and AERMOD are the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended models for use in project-level transportation conformity and hot-spot analysis. However, the structure and algorithms involved in running MOVES make analyses cumbersome and time-consuming. Likewise, the modeling setup process, including extensive data requirements and required input formats, in AERMOD lead to a high potential for analysis error in dispersion modeling. This study presents a distributed computing method for line source dispersion modeling that integrates MOVES-Matrix, a high-performance emission modeling tool, with the microscale dispersion models CALINE4 and AERMOD. MOVES-Matrix was prepared by iteratively running MOVES across all possible iterations of vehicle source-type, fuel, operating conditions, and environmental parameters to create a huge multi-dimensional emission rate lookup matrix. AERMOD and CALINE4 are connected with MOVES-Matrix in a distributed computing cluster using a series of Python scripts. This streamlined system built on MOVES-Matrix generates exactly the same emission rates and concentration results as using MOVES with AERMOD and CALINE4, but the approach is more than 200 times faster than using the MOVES graphical user interface. Because AERMOD requires detailed meteorological input, which is difficult to obtain, this study also recommends using CALINE4 as a screening tool for identifying the potential area that may exceed air quality standards before using AERMOD (and identifying areas that are exceedingly unlikely to exceed air quality standards). CALINE4 worst case method yields consistently higher concentration results than AERMOD for all comparisons in this paper, as expected given the nature of the meteorological data employed. The paper demonstrates a distributed computing method for line source dispersion modeling that integrates MOVES-Matrix with the CALINE4 and AERMOD. This streamlined system generates exactly the same emission rates and concentration results as traditional way to use MOVES with AERMOD and CALINE4, which are regulatory models approved by the U.S. EPA for conformity analysis, but the approach is more than 200 times faster than implementing the MOVES model. We highlighted the potentially significant benefit of using CALINE4 as screening tool for identifying potential area that may exceeds air quality standards before using AERMOD, which requires much more meteorology input than CALINE4.

Polybrominated diphenyl ethers in residential and agricultural soils from an electronic waste polluted region in South China: distribution, compositional profile, and sources.

PubMed

Zhang, Shaohui; Xu, Xijin; Wu, Yousheng; Ge, Jingjing; Li, Weiqiu; Huo, Xia

2014-05-01

A detailed investigation was conducted to understand the concentration, distribution, profile and possible source of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) in residential and agricultural soils from Guiyu, Shantou, China, one of the largest electronic waste (e-waste) recycling and dismantling areas in the world. Ten PBDEs were analyzed in 46 surface soil samples in terms of individual and total concentrations, together with soil organic matter concentrations. Much higher concentrations of the total PBDEs were predicted in the residential areas (more than 2000 ng g(-1)), exhibiting a clear urban source, while in the agricultural areas, concentrations were lower than 1500 ng g(-1). PBDE-209 was the most dominant congener among the study sites, indicating the prevalence of commercial deca-PBDE. However signature congeners from commercial octa-PBDE were also found. The total PBDE concentrations were significantly correlated with each individual PBDE. Principal component analysis indicated that PBDEs were mainly distributed in three groups according to the number of bromine atoms on the phenyl rings, and potential source. This study showed that the informal e-waste recycling has already introduced PBDEs into surrounding areas as pollutant which thus warrants an urgent investigation into the transport of PBDEs in the soil-plant system of agricultural areas. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting species richness and distribution ranges of centipedes at the northern edge of Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Georgopoulou, Elisavet; Djursvoll, Per; Simaiakis, Stylianos M.

2016-07-01

In recent decades, interest in understanding species distributions and exploring processes that shape species diversity has increased, leading to the development of advanced methods for the exploitation of occurrence data for analytical and ecological purposes. Here, with the use of georeferenced centipede data, we explore the importance and contribution of bioclimatic variables and land cover, and predict distribution ranges and potential hotspots in Norway. We used a maximum entropy analysis (Maxent) to model species' distributions, aiming at exploring centres of distribution, latitudinal spans and northern range boundaries of centipedes in Norway. The performance of all Maxent models was better than random with average test area under the curve (AUC) values above 0.893 and True Skill Statistic (TSS) values above 0.593. Our results showed a highly significant latitudinal gradient of increased species richness in southern grid-cells. Mean temperatures of warmest and coldest quarters explained much of the potential distribution of species. Predictive modelling analyses revealed that south-eastern Norway and the Atlantic coast in the west (inclusive of the major fjord system of Sognefjord), are local biodiversity hotspots with regard to high predictive species co-occurrence. We conclude that our predicted northward shifts of centipedes' distributions in Norway are likely a result of post-glacial recolonization patterns, species' ecological requirements and dispersal abilities.

Landscape Suitability in Botswana for the Conservation of Its Six Large African Carnivores

PubMed Central

Winterbach, Hanlie E. K.; Winterbach, Christiaan W.; Somers, Michael J.

2014-01-01

Wide-ranging large carnivores often range beyond the boundaries of protected areas into human-dominated areas. Mapping out potentially suitable habitats on a country-wide scale and identifying areas with potentially high levels of threats to large carnivore survival is necessary to develop national conservation action plans. We used a novel approach to map and identify these areas in Botswana for its large carnivore guild consisting of lion (Panthera leo), leopard (Panthera pardus), spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta), brown hyaena (Hyaena brunnea), cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) and African wild dog (Lycaon pictus). The habitat suitability for large carnivores depends primarily on prey availability, interspecific competition, and conflict with humans. Prey availability is most likely the strongest natural determinant. We used the distribution of biomass of typical wild ungulate species occurring in Botswana which is preyed upon by the six large carnivores to evaluate the potential suitability of the different management zones in the country to sustain large carnivore populations. In areas where a high biomass of large prey species occurred, we assumed interspecific competition between dominant and subordinated competitors to be high. This reduced the suitability of these areas for conservation of subordinate competitors, and vice versa. We used the percentage of prey biomass of the total prey and livestock biomass to identify areas with potentially high levels of conflict in agricultural areas. High to medium biomass of large prey was mostly confined to conservation zones, while small prey biomass was more evenly spread across large parts of the country. This necessitates different conservation strategies for carnivores with a preference for large prey, and those that can persist in the agricultural areas. To ensure connectivity between populations inside Botswana and also with its neighbours, a number of critical areas for priority management actions exist in the agricultural zones. PMID:24949735

Landscape suitability in Botswana for the conservation of its six large African carnivores.

PubMed

Winterbach, Hanlie E K; Winterbach, Christiaan W; Somers, Michael J

2014-01-01

Wide-ranging large carnivores often range beyond the boundaries of protected areas into human-dominated areas. Mapping out potentially suitable habitats on a country-wide scale and identifying areas with potentially high levels of threats to large carnivore survival is necessary to develop national conservation action plans. We used a novel approach to map and identify these areas in Botswana for its large carnivore guild consisting of lion (Panthera leo), leopard (Panthera pardus), spotted hyaena (Crocuta crocuta), brown hyaena (Hyaena brunnea), cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) and African wild dog (Lycaon pictus). The habitat suitability for large carnivores depends primarily on prey availability, interspecific competition, and conflict with humans. Prey availability is most likely the strongest natural determinant. We used the distribution of biomass of typical wild ungulate species occurring in Botswana which is preyed upon by the six large carnivores to evaluate the potential suitability of the different management zones in the country to sustain large carnivore populations. In areas where a high biomass of large prey species occurred, we assumed interspecific competition between dominant and subordinated competitors to be high. This reduced the suitability of these areas for conservation of subordinate competitors, and vice versa. We used the percentage of prey biomass of the total prey and livestock biomass to identify areas with potentially high levels of conflict in agricultural areas. High to medium biomass of large prey was mostly confined to conservation zones, while small prey biomass was more evenly spread across large parts of the country. This necessitates different conservation strategies for carnivores with a preference for large prey, and those that can persist in the agricultural areas. To ensure connectivity between populations inside Botswana and also with its neighbours, a number of critical areas for priority management actions exist in the agricultural zones.

Convergence of tree water use within an arid-zone woodland.

PubMed

O'Grady, A P; Cook, P G; Eamus, D; Duguid, A; Wischusen, J D H; Fass, T; Worldege, D

2009-07-01

We examined spatial and temporal patterns of tree water use and aspects of hydraulic architecture in four common tree species of central Australia--Corymbia opaca, Eucalyptus victrix, E. camaldulensis and Acacia aneura--to better understand processes that constrain water use in these environments. These four widely distributed species occupy contrasting niches within arid environments including woodlands, floodplains and riparian environments. Measurements of tree water use and leaf water potential were made at two sites with contrasting water table depths during a period of high soil water availability following summer rainfall and during a period of low soil water availability following 7 months of very little rainfall during 2007. There were significant differences in specific leaf area (SLA), sapwood area to leaf area ratios and sapwood density between species. Sapwood to leaf area ratio increased in all species from April to November indicating a decline in leaf area per unit sapwood area. Despite very little rainfall in the intervening period three species, C. opaca, E. victrix and E. camaldulensis maintained high leaf water potentials and tree water use during both periods. In contrast, leaf water potential and water use in the A. aneura were significantly reduced in November compared to April. Despite contrasting morphology and water use strategies, we observed considerable convergence in water use among the four species. Wood density in particular was strongly related to SLA, sapwood area to leaf area ratios and soil to leaf conductance, with all four species converging on a common relationship. Identifying convergence in hydraulic traits can potentially provide powerful tools for scaling physiological processes in natural ecosystems.

Applying ecological criteria to marine reserve design: A case study from the California Channel Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Airame, S.; Dugan, J.E.; Lafferty, K.D.; Leslie, H.; McArdle, D.A.; Warner, R.R.

2003-01-01

Using ecological criteria as a theoretical framework, we describe the steps involved in designing a network of marine reserves for conservation and fisheries management. Although we describe the case study of the Channel Islands, the approach to marine reserve design may be effective in other regions where traditional management alone does not sustain marine resources. A group of agencies, organizations, and individuals established clear goals for marine reserves in the Channel Islands, including conservation of ecosystem biodiversity, sustainable fisheries, economic viability, natural and cultural heritage, and education. Given the constraints of risk management, experimental design, monitoring, and enforcement, scientists recommended at least one, but no more than four, reserves in each biogeographic region. In general, the percentage of an area to be included in a reserve network depends on the goals. In the Channel Islands, after consideration of both conservation goals and the risk from human threats and natural catastrophes, scientists recommended reserving an area of 30-50% of all representative habitats in each biogeographic region. For most species of concern, except pinnipeds and seabirds, information about distributions, dispersal, and population growth was limited. As an alternative to species distribution information, suitable habitats for species of concern were used to locate potential reserve sites. We used a simulated annealing algorithm to identify potential reserve network scenarios that would represent all habitats within the smallest area possible. The analysis produced an array of potential reserve network scenarios that all met the established goals.

Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon.

PubMed

Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Neves, Olívia Viana; De Marco, Paulo; Loyola, Rafael

2017-01-01

Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale-patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change-are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species.

Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon

PubMed Central

Sales, Lilian Patrícia; Neves, Olívia Viana; De Marco, Paulo

2017-01-01

Background Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale—patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change—are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution. Methods We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors. Results The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses. Conclusions From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species. PMID:29023503

Widespread presence of naturally occurring perchlorate in high plains of Texas and New Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rajagopalan, S.; Anderson, T.A.; Fahlquist, L.; Rainwater, Ken A.; Ridley, M.; Jackson, W.A.

2006-01-01

Perchlorate (ClO4-) occurrence in groundwater has previously been linked to industrial releases and the historic use of Chilean nitrate fertilizers. However, recently a number of occurrences have been identified for which there is no obvious anthropogenic source. Groundwater from an area of 155 000 km2 in 56 counties in northwest Texas and eastern New Mexico is impacted by the presence of ClO4-. Concentrations were generally low (<4 ppb), although some areas are impacted by concentrations up to 200 ppb. ClO4- distribution is not related to well type (public water system, domestic, agricultural, or water-table monitoring) or aquifer (Ogallala, Edward Trinity High Plains, Edwards Trinity Plateau, Seymour, or Cenozoic). Results from vertically nested wells strongly indicate a surface source. The source of ClO4- appears to most likely be atmospheric deposition. Evidence supporting this hypothesis primarily relates to the presence of ClO 4- in tritium-free older water, the lack of relation between land use and concentration distribution, the inability of potential anthropogenic sources to account for the estimated mass of ClO4-, and the positive relationship between conserved anions (e.g., IO3-, Cl-, SO4-2) and ClO4-. The ClO4- distribution appears to be mainly related to evaporative concentration and unsaturated transport. This process has led to higher ClO4- and other ion concentrations in groundwater where the water table is relatively shallow, and in areas with lower saturated thickness. Irrigation may have accelerated this process in some areas by increasing the transport of accumulated salts and by increasing the number of evaporative cycles. Results from this study highlight the potential for ClO4- to impact groundwater in arid and semiarid areas through long-term atmospheric deposition. ?? 2006 American Chemical Society.

Development of a Frost Risk Assessment Tool in Agriculture for a Mediterranean ecosystem Utilizing MODIS satellite observations Geomatics and Surface Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Louka, Panagiota; Papanikolaou, Ioannis; Petropoulos, George; Migiros, George; Tsiros, Ioannis

2014-05-01

Frost risk in Mediterranean countries is a critical factor in agricultural planning and management. Nowadays, the rapid technological developments in Earth Observation (EO) technology have improved dramatically our ability to map the spatiotemporal distribution of frost conditions over a given area and evaluate its impacts on the environment and society. In this study, a frost risk model for agricultural crops cultivated in a Mediterranean environment has been developed, based primarily on Earth Observation (EO) data from MODIS sensor and ancillary spatial and point data. The ability of the model to predict frost conditions has been validated for selected days on which frost conditions had been observed for a region in Northwestern Greece according to ground observations obtained by the Agricultural Insurance Organization (ELGA). An extensive evaluation of the frost risk model predictions has been performed herein to evaluate objectively its ability to predict the spatio-temporal distribution of frost risk in the studied region, including comparisons against physiographical factors of the study area. The topographical characteristics that were taken under consideration were latitude, altitude, slope steepness, topographic convergence and the extend of the areas influenced by water bodies (such as lake and sea) existing in the study area. Additional data were also used concerning land use data and vegetation classification (type and density). Our results showed that the model was able to produce reasonably the spatio-temporal distribution of the frost conditions in our study area, following largely explainable patterns in respect to the study site and local weather conditions characteristics. All in all, the methodology implemented herein proved capable in obtaining rapidly and cost-effectively cartography of the frost risk in a Mediterranean environment, making it potentially a very useful tool for agricultural management and planning. The model presented here has also a potential to enhance conventional field-based surveying for monitoring frost changes over long timescales. KEYWORDS: Earth Observation, MODIS, frost, risk assessment, Greece

Spatial distribution of psychotic disorders in an urban area of France: an ecological study.

PubMed

Pignon, Baptiste; Schürhoff, Franck; Baudin, Grégoire; Ferchiou, Aziz; Richard, Jean-Romain; Saba, Ghassen; Leboyer, Marion; Kirkbride, James B; Szöke, Andrei

2016-05-18

Previous analyses of neighbourhood variations of non-affective psychotic disorders (NAPD) have focused mainly on incidence. However, prevalence studies provide important insights on factors associated with disease evolution as well as for healthcare resource allocation. This study aimed to investigate the distribution of prevalent NAPD cases in an urban area in France. The number of cases in each neighbourhood was modelled as a function of potential confounders and ecological variables, namely: migrant density, economic deprivation and social fragmentation. This was modelled using statistical models of increasing complexity: frequentist models (using Poisson and negative binomial regressions), and several Bayesian models. For each model, assumptions validity were checked and compared as to how this fitted to the data, in order to test for possible spatial variation in prevalence. Data showed significant overdispersion (invalidating the Poisson regression model) and residual autocorrelation (suggesting the need to use Bayesian models). The best Bayesian model was Leroux's model (i.e. a model with both strong correlation between neighbouring areas and weaker correlation between areas further apart), with economic deprivation as an explanatory variable (OR = 1.13, 95% CI [1.02-1.25]). In comparison with frequentist methods, the Bayesian model showed a better fit. The number of cases showed non-random spatial distribution and was linked to economic deprivation.

Application of Species Distribution Modeling for Avian Influenza surveillance in the United States considering the North America Migratory Flyways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Belkhiria, Jaber; Alkhamis, Moh A.; Martínez-López, Beatriz

2016-09-01

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) has recently (2014-2015) re-emerged in the United States (US) causing the largest outbreak in US history with 232 outbreaks and an estimated economic impact of $950 million. This study proposes to use suitability maps for Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza (LPAI) to identify areas at high risk for HPAI outbreaks. LPAI suitability maps were based on wild bird demographics, LPAI surveillance, and poultry density in combination with environmental, climatic, and socio-economic risk factors. Species distribution modeling was used to produce high-resolution (cell size: 500m x 500m) maps for Avian Influenza (AI) suitability in each of the four North American migratory flyways (NAMF). Results reveal that AI suitability is heterogeneously distributed throughout the US with higher suitability in specific zones of the Midwest and coastal areas. The resultant suitability maps adequately predicted most of the HPAI outbreak areas during the 2014-2015 epidemic in the US (i.e. 89% of HPAI outbreaks were located in areas identified as highly suitable for LPAI). Results are potentially useful for poultry producers and stakeholders in designing risk-based surveillance, outreach and intervention strategies to better prevent and control future HPAI outbreaks in the US.

Lantana camara L. (Verbenaceae) invasion along streams in a heterogeneous landscape.

PubMed

Ramaswami, Geetha; Sukumar, Raman

2014-09-01

Streams are periodically disturbed due to flooding, act as edges between habitats and also facilitate the dispersal of propagules, thus being potentially more vulnerable to invasions than adjoining regions. We used a landscape-wide transect-based sampling strategy and a mixed effects modelling approach to understand the effects of distance from stream, a rainfall gradient, light availability and fire history on the distribution of the invasive shrub Lantana camara L.(lantana) in the tropical dry forests of Mudumalai in southern India. The area occupied by lantana thickets and lantana stem abundance were both found to be highest closest to streams across this landscape with a rainfall gradient. There was no advantage in terms of increased abundance or area occupied by lantana when it grew closer to streams in drier areas as compared to moister areas. On an average, the area covered by lantana increased with increasing annual rainfall. Areas that experienced greater number of fires during 1989-2010 had lower lantana stem abundance irrespective of distance from streams. In this landscape, total light availability did not affect lantana abundance. Understanding the spatially variable environmental factors in a heterogeneous landscape influencing the distribution of lantana would aid in making informed management decisions at this scale.

CHANGES IN BACTERIAL COMPOSITION OF BIOFILM IN A ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This study examined the development of bacterial biofilms within a metropolitan distribution system. The distribution system is fed with different source water (i.e., groundwater, GW and surface water, SW) and undergoes different treatment processes in separate facilities. The biofilm community was characterized using 16S rRNA gene clone libraries and functional potential analysis, generated from total DNA extracted from coupons in biofilm annular reactors fed with onsite drinking water for up to eighteen months. Significant differences in the bacterial community structure were observed between GW and SW. Representatives that explained the dissimilarity between service areas were associated with Betaproteobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, and Firmicutes. After nine months the biofilm bacterial community from both areas were dominated by Mycobacterium species. The distribution of the dominant OTU (Mycobacterium) positively correlated with the drinking water distribution system (DWDS) temperature, but no clear relationship was seen with free chlorine residual, pH, turbidity or total organic carbon (TOC). The results suggest that biofilm microbial communities harbor distinct and diverse bacterial communities, and that source water, treatment processes and environmental conditions may play an important role in shaping the bacterial community in the distribution system. On the other hand, several bacterial groups were present i

Driving factors behind the distribution of dinocyst composition and abundance in surface sediments in a western Mediterranean coastal lagoon: report from a high resolution mapping study.

PubMed

Fertouna-Bellakhal, Mouna; Dhib, Amel; Béjaoui, Béchir; Turki, Souad; Aleya, Lotfi

2014-07-15

Species composition and abundance of dinocysts in relation to environmental factors were studied at 123 stations of surface sediment in Bizerte Lagoon. Forty-eight dinocyst types were identified, mainly dominated by Brigantidinium simplex, Votadinum spinosum, Alexandrium pseudogonyaulax, Alexandrium catenella, and Lingulodinum machaerophorum along with many round brown cysts and spiny round brown cysts. Cysts ranged from 1276 to 20126 cysts g(-1)dry weight sediment. Significant differences in cyst distribution pattern were recorded among the zones, with a higher cyst abundance occurring in the lagoon's inner areas. Redundancy analyses showed two distinct associations of dinocysts according to location and environmental variables. Ballast water discharges are potential introducers of non-indigenous species, especially harmful ones such as A. catenella and Polysphaeridium zoharyi, with currents playing a pivotal role in cyst distribution. Findings concerning harmful cyst species indicate potential seedbeds for initiation of future blooms and outbreaks of potentially toxic species in the lagoon. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Three-Phase Time-Multiplexed Planar Power Transmission to Distributed Implants.

PubMed

Lee, Byunghun; Ahn, Dukju; Ghovanloo, Maysam

2016-03-01

A platform has been presented for wireless powering of receivers (Rx's) that are arbitrarily distributed over a large area. A potential application could be powering of small Rx implants, distributed over large areas of the brain. The transmitter (Tx) consists of three overlapping layers of hexagonal planar spiral coils (hex-PSC) that are horizontally shifted to provide the strongest and most homogeneous electromagnetic flux coverage. The three-layer hex-PSC array is driven by a three-phase time-division-multiplexed power Tx that takes the advantage of the carrier phase shift, coil geometries, and Rx time constant to homogeneously power the arbitrarily distributed Rx's regardless of their misalignments. The functionality of the proposed three-phase power transmission concept has been verified in a detailed scaled-up high-frequency structure simulator Advanced Design System simulation model and measurement setup, and compared with a conventional Tx. The new Tx delivers 5.4 mW to each Rx and achieves, on average, 5.8% power transfer efficiency to the Rx at the worst case 90° angular misalignment, compared with 1.4% by the conventional Tx.

Phylogeography of the ant Myrmica rubra and its inquiline social parasite

PubMed Central

Leppänen, Jenni; Vepsäläinen, Kari; Savolainen, Riitta

2011-01-01

Widely distributed Palearctic insects are ideal to study phylogeographic patterns owing to their high potential to survive in many Pleistocene refugia and—after the glaciation—to recolonize vast, continuous areas. Nevertheless, such species have received little phylogeographic attention. Here, we investigated the Pleistocene refugia and subsequent postglacial colonization of the common, abundant, and widely distributed ant Myrmica rubra over most of its Palearctic area, using mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). The western and eastern populations of M. rubra belonged predominantly to separate haplogroups, which formed a broad secondary contact zone in Central Europe. The distribution of genetic diversity and haplogroups implied that M. rubra survived the last glaciation in multiple refugia located over an extensive area from Iberia in the west to Siberia in the east, and colonized its present areas of distribution along several routes. The matrilineal genetic structure of M. rubra was probably formed during the last glaciation and subsequent postglacial expansion. Additionally, because M. rubra has two queen morphs, the obligately socially parasitic microgyne and its macrogyne host, we tested the suggested speciation of the parasite. Locally, the parasite and host usually belonged to the same haplogroup but differed in haplotype frequencies. This indicates that genetic differentiation between the morphs is a universal pattern and thus incipient, sympatric speciation of the parasite from its host is possible. If speciation is taking place, however, it is not yet visible as lineage sorting of the mtDNA between the morphs. PMID:22393482

Three-dimensional dynamic hip contact area and pressure distribution during activities of daily living.

PubMed

Yoshida, H; Faust, A; Wilckens, J; Kitagawa, M; Fetto, J; Chao, Edmund Y-S

2006-01-01

Estimation of the hip joint contact area and pressure distribution during activities of daily living is important in predicting joint degeneration mechanism, prosthetic implant wear, providing biomechanical rationales for preoperative planning and postoperative rehabilitation. These biomechanical data were estimated utilizing a generic hip model, the Discrete Element Analysis technique, and the in vivo hip joint contact force data. The three-dimensional joint potential contact area was obtained from the anteroposterior radiograph of a subject and the actual joint contact area and pressure distribution in eight activities of daily living were calculated. During fast, normal, and slow walking, the peak pressure of moderate magnitude was located at the lateral roof of the acetabulum during mid-stance. In standing up and sitting down, and during knee bending, the peak pressures were located at the edge of the posterior horn and the magnitude of the peak pressure during sitting down was 2.8 times that of normal walking. The peak pressure was found at the lateral roof in climbing up stairs which was higher than that in going down stairs. These results can be used to rationalize rehabilitation protocols, functional restrictions after complex acetabular reconstructions, and prosthetic component wear and fatigue test set up. The same model and analysis can provide further insight to soft tissue loading and pathology such as labral injury. When the pressure distribution on the acetabulum is inverted onto the femoral head, prediction of subchondral bone collapse associated with avascular necrosis can be achieved with improved accuracy.

Distribution and abundance of cetaceans in the north-central and western Gulf of Mexico. Final report. Volume 3. Appendix C. Part 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, R.W.; Fargion, G.S.

1996-05-24

The purpose of the study was to determine the distribution and abundance of cetaceans in areas potentially affected by future oil and gas activities along the continental slope of the north-central and western Gulf of Mexico. This 3.75 year project commenced 1 October 1991 and finished 15 July 1995. The study area was bounded by the Florida-Alabama border, the Texas-Mexico border, and the 100 m and 2,000 m isobaths. Cetacean distribution and abundance were determined from seasonal aerial and shipboard visual surveys and shipboard acoustic surveys. In addition, hydrographic data were collected in situ and by satellite remote sensing tomore » characterize cetacean habitat. Finally, tagging and tracking of sperm whales using satellite telemetry was attempted. Appendix C Part 2 contains the hydrogrpahic data collected during TIO Cruises 5-7. Cetaceans were observed throughout the study area during all four seasons. Nineteen species were identified, including two species (melon-headed whales and Fraser`s dolphins) previously thought to be rare in the Gulf. Pantropical spotted dolphins, bottlenose dolphins, clymene dolphins, striped dolphins, Atlantic spotted dolphins, and melon-headed whales were the most common small cetaceans and the sperm whale was the most common large cetacean. The mean annual abundance for all cetaceans was estimated to be 19,198. Although the study area had complex and dynamic oceanography, bottom depth was the only environmental variable which correlated to cetacean distribution.« less

Habitat modeling for cetacean management: Spatial distribution in the southern Pelagos Sanctuary (Mediterranean Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pennino, Maria Grazia; Mérigot, Bastien; Fonseca, Vinícius Prado; Monni, Virginia; Rotta, Andrea

2017-07-01

Effective management and conservation of wild populations requires knowledge of their habitats, especially by mean of quantitative analyses of their spatial distributions. The Pelagos Sanctuary is a dedicated marine protected area for Mediterranean marine mammals covering an area of 90,000 km2 in the north-western Mediterranean Sea between Italy, France and the Principate of Monaco. In the south of the Sanctuary, i.e. along the Sardinian coast, a range of diverse human activities (cities, industry, fishery, tourism) exerts several current ad potential threats to cetacean populations. In addition, marine mammals are recognized by the EU Marine Strategy Framework Directive as essential components of sustainable ecosystems. Yet, knowledge on the spatial distribution and ecology of cetaceans in this area is quite scarce. Here we modeled occurrence of the three most abundant species known in the Sanctuary, i.e. the striped dolphin (Stenella coeruleoalba), the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) and the fin whales (Balaenoptera physalus), using sighting data from scientific surveys collected from 2012 to 2014 during summer time. Bayesian site-occupancy models were used to model their spatial distribution in relation to habitat taking into account oceanographic (sea surface temperature, primary production, photosynthetically active radiation, chlorophyll-a concentration) and topographic (depth, slope, distance of the land) variables. Cetaceans responded differently to the habitat features, with higher occurrence predicted in the more productive areas on submarine canyons. These results provide ecological information useful to enhance management plans and establish baseline for future population trend studies.

Distribution and abundance of cetaceans in the north-central and western Gulf of Mexico. Final report. Volume 1. Executive summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, R.W.; Fargion, G.S.

1996-05-24

The purpose of the study was to determine the distribution and abundance of cetaceans in areas potentially affected by future oil and gas activities along the continental slope of the north-central and western Gulf of Mexico. This 3.75 year project commenced 1 October 1991 and finished 15 July 1995. The study area was bounded by the Florida-Alabama border, the Texas-Mexico border, and the 100 m and 2,000 m isobaths. Cetacean distribution and abundance were determined from seasonal aerial and shipboard visual surveys and shipboard acoustic surveys. In addition, hydrographic data were collected in situ and by satellite remote sensing tomore » characterize cetacean habitat. Finally, tagging and tracking of sperm whales using satellite telemetry was attempted. This volume summarizes the results of the study. Cetaceans were observed throughout the study area during all four seasons. Nineteen species were identified, including two species (melon-headed whales and Fraser`s dolphins) previously thought to be rare in the Gulf. Pantropical spotted dolphins, bottlenose dolphins, clymene dolphins, striped dolphins, Atlantic spotted dolphins, and melon-headed whales were the most common small cetaceans and the sperm whale was the most common large cetacean. The mean annual abundance for all cetaceans was estimated to be 19,198. Although the study area had complex and dynamic oceanography, bottom depth was the only environmental variable which correlated to cetacean distribution.« less

Distribution and abundance of cetaceans in the north-central and western Gulf of Mexico. Final report. Volume 3. Appendix B

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1996-05-24

The purpose of the study was to determine the distribution and abundance of cetaceans in areas potentially affected by future oil and gas activities along the continental slope of the north-central and western Gulf of Mexico. This 3.75 year project commenced 1 October 1991 and finished 15 July 1995. The study area was bounded by the Florida-Alabama border, the Texas-Mexico border, and the 100 m and 2,000 m isobaths. Cetacean distribution and abundance were determined from seasonal aerial and shipboard visual surveys and shipboard acoustic surveys. In addition, hydrographic data were collected in situ and by satellite remote sensing tomore » characterize cetacean habitat. Finally, tagging and tracking of sperm whales using satellite telemetry was attempted. Appendix B contains the hydrographic data collected during all four NMFS-SEFSC cruises. Cetaceans were observed throughout the study area during all four seasons. Nineteen species were identified, including two species (melon-headed whales and Fraser`s dolphins) previously thought to be rare in the Gulf. Pantropical spotted dolphins, bottlenose dolphins, clymene dolphins, striped dolphins, Atlantic spotted dolphins, and melon-headed whales were the most common small cetaceans and the sperm whale was the most common large cetacean. The mean annual abundance for all cetaceans was estimated to be 19,198. Although the study area had complex and dynamic oceanography, bottom depth was the only environmental variable which correlated to cetacean distribution.« less

Distribution and abundance of cetaceans in the north-central and western Gulf of Mexico. Final report. Volume 2. Technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, R.W.; Fargion, G.S.

1996-05-24

The purpose of the study was to determine the distribution and abundance of cetaceans in areas potentially affected by future oil and gas activities along the continental slope of the north-central and western Gulf of Mexico. This 3.75 year project commenced 1 October 1991 and finished 15 July 1995. The study area was bounded by the Florida-Alabama border, the Texas-Mexico border, and the 100 m and 2,000 m isobaths. Cetacean distribution and abundance were determined from seasonal aerial and shipboard visual surveys and shipboard acoustic surveys. In addition, hydrographic data were collected in situ and by satellite remote sensing tomore » characterize cetacean habitat. Finally, tagging and tracking of sperm whales using satellite telemetry was attempted. This volume summarizes the results of the study. Cetaceans were observed throughout the study area during all four seasons. Nineteen species were identified, including two species (melon-headed whales and Fraser`s dolphins) previously thought to be rare in the Gulf. Pantropical spotted dolphins, bottlenose dolphins, clymene dolphins, striped dolphins, Atlantic spotted dolphins, and melon-headed whales were the most common small cetaceans and the sperm whale was the most common large cetacean. The mean annual abundance for all cetaceans was estimated to be 19,198. Although the study area had complex and dynamic oceanography, bottom depth was the only environmental variable which correlated to cetacean distribution.« less

Distribution and abundance of cetaceans in the north-central and western Gulf of Mexico. Final report. Volume 3. Appendix C. Part 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Davis, R.W.; Fargion, G.S.

1996-05-24

The purpose of the study was to determine the distribution and abundance of cetaceans in areas potentially affected by future oil and gas activities along the continental slope of the north-central and western Gulf of Mexico. This 3.75 year project commenced 1 October 1991 and finished 15 July 1995. The study area was bounded by the Florida-Alabama border, the Texas-Mexico border, and the 100 m and 2,000 m isobaths. Cetacean distribution and abundance were determined from seasonal aerial and shipboard visual surveys and shipboard acoustic surveys. In addition, hydrographic data were collected in situ and by satellite remote sensing tomore » characterize cetacean habitat. Finally, tagging and tracking of sperm whales using satellite telemetry was attempted. Appendix C Part 1 contains the hydrographic data collected during TIO Cruises 1-4. Cetaceans were observed throughout the study area during all four seasons. Nineteen species were identified, including two species (melon-headed whales and Fraser`s dolphins) previously thought to be rare in the Gulf. Pantropical spotted dolphins, bottlenose dolphins, clymene dolphins, striped dolphins, Atlantic spotted dolphins, and melon-headed whales were the most common small cetaceans and the sperm whale was the most common large cetacean. The mean annual abundance for all cetaceans was estimated to be 19,198. Although the study area had complex and dynamic oceanography, bottom depth was the only environmental variable which correlated to cetacean distribution.« less

Storage, transmission and distribution of hydrogen

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kelley, J. H.; Hagler, R., Jr.

1979-01-01

Current practices and future requirements for the storage, transmission and distribution of hydrogen are reviewed in order to identify inadequacies to be corrected before hydrogen can achieve its full potential as a substitute for fossil fuels. Consideration is given to the storage of hydrogen in underground solution-mined salt caverns, portable high-pressure containers and dewars, pressure vessels and aquifers and as metal hydrides, hydrogen transmission in evacuated double-walled insulated containers and by pipeline, and distribution by truck and internal distribution networks. Areas for the improvement of these techniques are indicated, and these technological deficiencies, including materials development, low-cost storage and transmission methods, low-cost, long-life metal hydrides and novel methods for hydrogen storage, are presented as challenges for research and development.

Potential calculation of rural settlements consolidation: a case study of Tianchang City in Anhui Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Xiaofeng; Huang, Xianjin; Li, Li; Fan, Jing

2011-02-01

Rural settlements consolidation plays an important role for improving the rural residential habitation, and increasing the intensive land use. This paper aims to analyze the current situation, features and problems of rural settlements, and calculate the theoretical and realistic potential of rural settlements consolidation in Tianchang City, in order to provide references for new round of land use planning. Methods of field survey, hierarchy analysis, land targets per capita, modified coefficient on limited conditions and GIS is employed. The results indicate that: (1) The total area of rural settlements was 15,496.31hm2 in 2005, and the area of rural settlements per capita was 332.66m2, far more than standard of 150m2. (2) The comprehensive modified coefficient in 15 towns is from 0.47 to 0.96, which indicates the ability and possibility of the realization of theoretical potential. (3) The theoretical potential is 9,746.09 hm2 and the realistic potential is 7,124.94hm2 from 2005 to 2020. (4) The spatial distribution between rate of theoretical potential and realistic potential is incompletely consistent.

Fishery Household (FH) database and cultivation areas in Indramayu regency to develop Shrimp and Milkfish farming based on GIS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rostika, Rita; Purba, Noir P.; Iskandar; Paradhita Dewanti, Lantun; Mahdiana Apriliani, Izza

2018-05-01

With a coastline length of 114 km, the utilization of the coastline areas is potential for especially shrimp and milkfish cultivations, which have a higher economic value. However, appropriate development strategies are highly required. The purpose of this research is to examine the existing conditions and organize integrated information for fishery household as well as the areas utilized for shrimp and milkfish cultivations, especially in coastal areas. The methods used include an analysis from Landsat 8 imaginary, field survey, and interviews with various sources. This research conducted in June-November 2015. Data from remote sensing were digitized and utilized as mark point to survey area of cultivation. The results show that the distributions of RTP data cover Windu and Vaname shrimp polycultures by 1,727 RTP, milkfish by 1,551 RTP, Vaname shrimp by 2,953 RTP, and Windu Shrimp by 88 RTP. The area, which may be utilized as ponds, is 9,854.1 ha. The area for milkfish ponds is 12,065.08 ha, while the digitation result is 10,801.92 ha. It shows that Indramayu coastal areas still have numerous and various potentials, which may be utilized for shrimp and milkfish cultivations.

Determination of the rockfall source in an urban settlement area by using a rule-based fuzzy evaluation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aksoy, H.; Ercanoglu, M.

2006-10-01

The evaluation of the rockfall initiation mechanism and the simulation of the runout behavior is an important issue in the prevention and remedial measures for potential rockfall hazards in highway protection, in forest preservation, and especially in urban settlement areas. In most of the studies in the literature, the extent of the rockfall hazard was determined by various techniques basing on the selection of a rockfall source, generally defined as zones of rock bodies having slope angles higher than a certain value, proposed by general practice. In the present study, it was aimed to carry out a rule-based fuzzy analysis on the discontinuity data of andesites in the city of Ankara, Turkey, in order to bring a different and rather systematic approach to determine the source areas for rockfall hazard in an urban settlement, based on the discontinuity and natural slope features. First, to obtain rock source areas (RSAs), data obtained from the field studies were combined with a rule-based fuzzy evaluation, incorporating the altitude difference, the number of discontinuities, the number of wedges and the number of potential slides as the parameters of the fuzzy sets. After processing the outputs of the rule-based fuzzy system and producing the linguistic definitions, it could be possible to obtain potential RSAs. According to the RSA maps, 1.7% of the study area was found to have "high RSA", and 5.8% of the study area was assigned as "medium RSA". Then, potential rockfall hazard map was prepared. At the final stage, based upon the high and medium RSAs, 3.6% of the study area showed "high rockfall potential", while areal distribution of "medium rockfall potential" was found as 7.9%. Both RSA and potential rockfall hazard map were in accordance with the observations performed in the field.

Global Distribution of Alveolar and Cystic Echinococcosis.

PubMed

Deplazes, P; Rinaldi, L; Alvarez Rojas, C A; Torgerson, P R; Harandi, M F; Romig, T; Antolova, D; Schurer, J M; Lahmar, S; Cringoli, G; Magambo, J; Thompson, R C A; Jenkins, E J

2017-01-01

Alveolar echinococcosis (AE) and cystic echinococcosis (CE) are severe helminthic zoonoses. Echinococcus multilocularis (causative agent of AE) is widely distributed in the northern hemisphere where it is typically maintained in a wild animal cycle including canids as definitive hosts and rodents as intermediate hosts. The species Echinococcus granulosus, Echinococcus ortleppi, Echinococcus canadensis and Echinococcus intermedius are the causative agents of CE with a worldwide distribution and a highly variable human disease burden in the different endemic areas depending upon human behavioural risk factors, the diversity and ecology of animal host assemblages and the genetic diversity within Echinococcus species which differ in their zoonotic potential and pathogenicity. Both AE and CE are regarded as neglected zoonoses, with a higher overall burden of disease for CE due to its global distribution and high regional prevalence, but a higher pathogenicity and case fatality rate for AE, especially in Asia. Over the past two decades, numerous studies have addressed the epidemiology and distribution of these Echinococcus species worldwide, resulting in better-defined boundaries of the endemic areas. This chapter presents the global distribution of Echinococcus species and human AE and CE in maps and summarizes the global data on host assemblages, transmission, prevalence in animal definitive hosts, incidence in people and molecular epidemiology. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Identification of 18S ribosomal DNA genotype of Acanthamoeba from hot spring recreation areas in the central range, Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, Bing-Mu; Ma, Po-Hua; Liou, Tai-Sheng; Chen, Jung-Sheng; Shih, Feng-Cheng

2009-04-01

SummaryAcanthamoeba is a free-living amoebae ubiquitous to aquatic environments. Within the genus a few species are recognized as opportunistic potential human pathogens, which cause granulomatous amoebic encephalitis (GAE) and keratitis. Infections of keratitis are frequently reported through wearing lens while swimming in the non-disinfected aquatic environment. Contaminations in hot tubs, spas and public baths are also possible. As a result, in this study, we identified Acanthamoeba based on the PCR amplification with a genus-specific primer pair and investigated the distribution of Acanthamoeba at five hot spring recreation areas in central range, Taiwan. We gathered data on factors potentially associated with the pathogen's distribution, including various sampling sites, aquatic environment, physical and microbiological water quality parameters. Spring water was collected from 55 sites and Acanthamoeba was detected in 9 (16.4%). The most frequently detected was Acanthamoeba griffini, followed by Acanthamoeba jacobsi. Legionella were detected in 18 (32.7%) of the sites sampled in this study. The species of Legionella identified included Legionella pneumophila serotype 6, serotype 1, and Legionella erythra. Overall, 9.1% of the samples contained both Acanthamoeba and Legionella. The prevalence of Acanthamoeba was contrary to the levels of microbiological indicators recommended by Taiwan CDC, and no significant differences (Mann-Whitney U test, P < 0.05) were observed between the presence/absence of Acanthamoeba and water quality parameters. Results of this survey confirm the existence of Acanthamoeba in Taiwan spring recreation areas. Acanthamoeba, the organism responsible for the majority of Acanthamoeba keratitis and can serve as vehicles for facultative pathogens, should be considered a potential threat for health associated with human activities in spring recreation areas of Taiwan.

Using remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems for Rift Valley fever risk assessment in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tedrow, Christine Atkins

The primary goal in this study was to explore remote sensing, ecological niche modeling, and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) as aids in predicting candidate Rift Valley fever (RVF) competent vector abundance and distribution in Virginia, and as means of estimating where risk of establishment in mosquitoes and risk of transmission to human populations would be greatest in Virginia. A second goal in this study was to determine whether the remotely-sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can be used as a proxy variable of local conditions for the development of mosquitoes to predict mosquito species distribution and abundance in Virginia. As part of this study, a mosquito surveillance database was compiled to archive the historical patterns of mosquito species abundance in Virginia. In addition, linkages between mosquito density and local environmental and climatic patterns were spatially and temporally examined. The present study affirms the potential role of remote sensing imagery for species distribution prediction, and it demonstrates that ecological niche modeling is a valuable predictive tool to analyze the distributions of populations. The MaxEnt ecological niche modeling program was used to model predicted ranges for potential RVF competent vectors in Virginia. The MaxEnt model was shown to be robust, and the candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution map is presented. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was found to be the most useful environmental-climatic variable to predict mosquito species distribution and abundance in Virginia. However, these results indicate that a more robust prediction is obtained by including other environmental-climatic factors correlated to mosquito densities (e.g., temperature, precipitation, elevation) with NDVI. The present study demonstrates that remote sensing and GIS can be used with ecological niche and risk modeling methods to estimate risk of virus establishment in mosquitoes and transmission to humans. Maps delineating the geographic areas in Virginia with highest risk for RVF establishment in mosquito populations and RVF disease transmission to human populations were generated in a GIS using human, domestic animal, and white-tailed deer population estimates and the MaxEnt potential RVF competent vector species distribution prediction. The candidate RVF competent vector predicted distribution and RVF risk maps presented in this study can help vector control agencies and public health officials focus Rift Valley fever surveillance efforts in geographic areas with large co-located populations of potential RVF competent vectors and human, domestic animal, and wildlife hosts. Keywords. Rift Valley fever, risk assessment, Ecological Niche Modeling, MaxEnt, Geographic Information System, remote sensing, Pearson's Product-Moment Correlation Coefficient, vectors, mosquito distribution, mosquito density, mosquito surveillance, United States, Virginia, domestic animals, white-tailed deer, ArcGIS

Distribution of Potential Hydrothermally Altered Rocks in Central Colorado Derived From Landsat Thematic Mapper Data: A Geographic Information System Data Set

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knepper, Daniel H.

2010-01-01

As part of the Central Colorado Mineral Resource Assessment Project, the digital image data for four Landsat Thematic Mapper scenes covering central Colorado between Wyoming and New Mexico were acquired and band ratios were calculated after masking pixels dominated by vegetation, snow, and terrain shadows. Ratio values were visually enhanced by contrast stretching, revealing only those areas with strong responses (high ratio values). A color-ratio composite mosaic was prepared for the four scenes so that the distribution of potentially hydrothermally altered rocks could be visually evaluated. To provide a more useful input to a Geographic Information System-based mineral resource assessment, the information contained in the color-ratio composite raster image mosaic was converted to vector-based polygons after thresholding to isolate the strongest ratio responses and spatial filtering to reduce vector complexity and isolate the largest occurrences of potentially hydrothermally altered rocks.

Characterization, distribution, and risk assessment of heavy metals in agricultural soil and products around mining and smelting areas of Hezhang, China.

PubMed

Briki, Meryem; Ji, Hongbing; Li, Cai; Ding, Huaijian; Gao, Yang

2015-12-01

Mining and smelting have been releasing huge amount of toxic substances into the environment. In the present study, agricultural soil and different agricultural products (potato, Chinese cabbage, garlic bolt, corn) were analyzed to examine the source, spatial distribution, and risk of 12 elements (As, Be, Bi, Cd, Co, Cr, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Sb, and Zn) in agricultural soil near mine fields, smelting fields, and mountain field around Hezhang County, west of Guizhou Province, China. Multivariate statistical analysis indicated that in mining area, As, Bi, Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb, Sb, and Zn were generated from anthropogenic sources; in smelting area, As, Be, Cd, Co, Cu, Pb, Sb, and Zn were derived from anthropogenic sources through zinc smelting ceased in 2004. The enrichment factors (EFs) and ecological risk index (RI) of soil in mining area are the most harmful, showing extremely high enrichment and very high ecological risk of As, Bi, Cd, Cu, Hg, Pb, Sb, and Zn. Zinc is the most significant enriched in the smelting area; however, mountain area has a moderate enrichment and ecological risk and do not present any ecological risk. According to spatial distribution, the concentrations depend on the nearby mining and smelting activities. Transfer factors (TFs) in the smelting area and mountain are high, implying a threat for human consumption. Therefore, further studies should be carried out taking into account the harm of those heavy metals and potential negative health effects from the consumption of agricultural products in these circumstances.

Assessment of surface water chloride and conductivity trends in areas of unconventional oil and gas development-Why existing national data sets cannot tell us what we would like to know

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowen, Zachary H.; Oelsner, Gretchen P.; Cade, Brian S.; Gallegos, Tanya J.; Farag, Aïda M.; Mott, David N.; Potter, Christopher J.; Cinotto, Peter J.; Clark, Melanie L.; Kappel, William M.; Kresse, Timothy M.; Melcher, Cynthia P.; Paschke, Suzanne; Susong, David D.; Varela, Brian A.

2015-01-01

Heightened concern regarding the potential effects of unconventional oil and gas development on regional water quality has emerged, but the few studies on this topic are limited in geographic scope. Here we evaluate the potential utility of national and publicly available water-quality data sets for addressing questions regarding unconventional oil and gas development. We used existing U.S. Geological Survey and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data sets to increase understanding of the spatial distribution of unconventional oil and gas development in the U.S. and broadly assess surface water quality trends in these areas. Based on sample size limitations, we were able to estimate trends in specific conductance (SC) and chloride (Cl-) from 1970 to 2010 in 16% (n=155) of the watersheds with unconventional oil and gas resources. We assessed these trends relative to spatiotemporal distributions of hydraulically fractured wells. Results from this limited analysis suggest no consistent and widespread trends in surface water quality for SC and Cl- in areas with increasing unconventional oil and gas development and highlight limitations of existing national databases for addressing questions regarding unconventional oil and gas development and water quality.

Improving environmental assessments by integrating Species Sensitivity Distributions into environmental modeling: examples with two hypothetical oil spills.

PubMed

Bejarano, Adriana C; Mearns, Alan J

2015-04-15

A three dimensional (3D) trajectory model was used to simulate oil mass balance and environmental concentrations of two 795,000 L hypothetical oil spills modeled under physical and chemical dispersion scenarios. Species Sensitivity Distributions (SSD) for Total Hydrocarbon Concentrations (THCs) were developed, and Hazard Concentrations (HC) used as levels of concern. Potential consequences to entrained water column organisms were characterized by comparing model outputs with SSDs, and obtaining the proportion of species affected (PSA) and areas with oil concentrations exceeding HC5s (Area ⩾ HC5). Under the physically-dispersed oil scenario ⩽ 77% of the oil remains on the water surface and strands on shorelines, while with the chemically-dispersed oil scenario ⩽ 67% of the oil is entrained in the water column. For every 10% increase in chemical dispersion effectiveness, the average PSA and Area ⩾ HC5 increases (range: 0.01-0.06 and 0.50-2.9 km(2), respectively), while shoreline oiling decreases (⩽ 2919 L/km). Integrating SSDs into modeling may improve understanding of scales of potential impacts to water column organisms, while providing net environmental benefit comparison of oil spill response options. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Co-occurrence patterns of trees along macro-climatic gradients and their potential influence on the present and future distribution of Fagus sylvatica L.

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meier, E.S.; Edwards, T.C.; Kienast, Felix; Dobbertin, M.; Zimmermann, N.E.

2011-01-01

Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large-scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress-gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad-scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co-occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates.Location Europe.Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co-occurrence patterns.Results Correlation analyses supported the stress-gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co-occurrence patterns may play a major role.Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co-occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate-induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences. ?? 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Correspondence between the habitat of the threatened pudú (Cervidae) and the national protected-area system of Chile.

PubMed

Pavez-Fox, Melissa; Estay, Sergio A

2016-01-07

Currently, many species are facing serious conservation problems due to habitat loss. The impact of the potential loss of biodiversity associated with habitat loss is difficult to measure. This is particularly the case with inconspicuous species such as the threatened pudú (Pudu puda), an endemic Cervidae of temperate forests of Chile and Argentina. To evaluate the effectiveness of the Chilean protected-area system in protecting the habitat of the pudú, we measured the congruence between this specie's potential distribution and the geographical area occupied by the protected areas in central and southern Chile. The measurements of congruency were made using the Maxent modeling method. The potential habitat of the pudú was found to be poorly represented in the system (3-8%) and even the most suitable areas for the species are not currenly protected. According to these results, the protected area network cannot be considered as a key component of the conservation strategy for this species. The results presented here also serve as a guide for the reevaluation of current pudú conservation strategies, for the design of new field studies to detect the presence of this species in human-disturbed areas or remaining patches of native forest, and for the implementation of corridors to maximize the success of conservation efforts.

Modeling Inhalational Tularemia: Deliberate Release and Public Health Response

PubMed Central

Hall, Ian M.; Leach, Steve

2011-01-01

Two epidemic modeling studies of inhalational tularemia were identified in the published literature, both demonstrating the high number of potential casualties that could result from a deliberate aerosolized release of the causative agent in an urban setting. However, neither study analyzed the natural history of inhalational tularemia nor modeled the relative merits of different mitigation strategies. We first analyzed publicly available human/primate experimental data and reports of naturally acquired inhalational tularemia cases to better understand the epidemiology of the disease. We then simulated an aerosolized release of the causative agent, using airborne dispersion modeling to demonstrate the potential number of casualties and the extent of their spatial distribution. Finally, we developed a public health intervention model that compares 2 mitigation strategies: targeting antibiotics at symptomatic individuals with or without mass distribution of antibiotics to potentially infected individuals. An antibiotic stockpile that is sufficient to capture all areas where symptomatic individuals were infected is likely to save more lives than treating symptomatic individuals alone, providing antibiotics can be distributed rapidly and their uptake is high. However, with smaller stockpiles, a strategy of treating symptomatic individuals alone is likely to save many more lives than additional mass distribution of antibiotics to potentially infected individuals. The spatial distribution of symptomatic individuals is unlikely to coincide exactly with the path of the dispersion cloud if such individuals are infected near their work locations but then seek treatment close to their homes. The optimal mitigation strategy will depend critically on the size of the release relative to the stockpile level and the effectiveness of treatment relative to the speed at which antibiotics can be distributed. PMID:22044315

Potential changes in benthic macrofaunal distributions from the English Channel simulated under climate change scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rombouts, Isabelle; Beaugrand, Grégory; Dauvin, Jean-Claude

2012-03-01

Climate-induced changes in the distribution of species are likely to affect the functioning and diversity of marine ecosystems. Therefore, in economic and ecological important areas, such as the English Channel, projections of the future distributions of key species under changing environmental conditions are urgently needed. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) have been applied successfully to determine potential distributions of species based on the information of the environmental niche of a species (sensu Hutchinson). In this study, the niches of two commercially exploited benthic species, Pecten maximus and Glycymeris glycymeris, and two ecologically important species, Abra alba and Ophelia borealis were derived using four contemporary hydrographic variables, i.e. sea surface temperature, sea surface salinity, water depth and sediment type. Consequently, using these ecological envelopes, the Non-Parametric Probalistic Ecological Niche model (NPPEN) was applied to calculate contemporary probabilities of occurrence for each species in the North East Atlantic and to predict potential re-distributions under the climate change scenario A2 for two time periods 2050-2059 and 2090-2099. Results show general northern displacements of the four benthic species from the English Channel into the North Sea and southern Norwegian coast. The projections mostly indicate a reduction of suitable habitat for benthic species with a notable disappearance of their distributions in the English Channel, except for A. alba. However, interpretations should be treated with caution since many uncertainties and assumptions are attached to ecological niche models in general. Furthermore, opening up potential habitats for benthic species does not necessarily imply that the species will actually occupy these sites in the future. The displacement and colonisation success of species are a function of many other non-climatic factors such as species life histories, dispersal abilities, adaptability and community interactions.

Application of Snowfall and Wind Statistics to Snow Transport Modeling for Snowdrift Control in Minnesota.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shulski, Martha D.; Seeley, Mark W.

2004-11-01

Models were utilized to determine the snow accumulation season (SAS) and to quantify windblown snow for the purpose of snowdrift control for locations in Minnesota. The models require mean monthly temperature, snowfall, density of snow, and wind frequency distribution statistics. Temperature and precipitation data were obtained from local cooperative observing sites, and wind data came from Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS)/Automated Weather Observing System (AWOS) sites in the region. The temperature-based algorithm used to define the SAS reveals a geographic variability in the starting and ending dates of the season, which is determined by latitude and elevation. Mean seasonal snowfall shows a geographic distribution that is affected by topography and proximity to Lake Superior. Mean snowfall density also exhibits variability, with lower-density snow events displaced to higher-latitude positions. Seasonal wind frequencies show a strong bimodal distribution with peaks from the northwest and southeast vector direction, with an exception for locations in close proximity to the Lake Superior shoreline. In addition, for western and south-central Minnesota there is a considerably higher frequency of wind speeds above the mean snow transport threshold of 7 m s-1. As such, this area is more conducive to higher potential snow transport totals. Snow relocation coefficients in this area are in the range of 0.4 0.9, and, according to the empirical models used in this analysis, this range implies that actual snow transport is 40% 90% of the total potential in south-central and western areas of the state.

Modelling the Geographical Range of a Species with Variable Life-History

PubMed Central

Macfadyen, Sarina; Kriticos, Darren J.

2012-01-01

We show how a climatic niche model can be used to describe the potential geographic distribution of a pest species with variable life-history, and illustrate how to estimate biogeographic pest threats that vary across space. The models were used to explore factors that affect pest risk (irrigation and presences of host plant). A combination of current distribution records and published experimental data were used to construct separate models for the asexual and sexual lineages of Rhopalosiphum padi (Linnaeus) (Hemiptera: Aphididae). The two models were combined with knowledge of host plant presence to classify the global pest risk posed by R. padi. Whilst R. padi has a relatively limited area in which sexual lineages can persist year round, a much larger area is suitable for transient sexual and asexual lineages to exist. The greatest risk of establishment of persistent sexual and asexual populations is in areas with warm temperate climates. At the global scale the models show very little difference in risk patterns between natural rainfall and irrigation scenarios, but in Australia, the amount of land suitable for persistent asexual and transient sexual populations decreases (by 20%) if drought stress is no longer alleviated by irrigation. This approach proved useful for modelling the potential distribution of a species that has a variable life-history. We were able to use the model outputs to examine factors such as irrigation practices and host plant presence that altered the nature (transient or permanent) and extent of pest risk. The composite niche maps indicate pest risk in terms that are useful to both biosecurity agencies and pest managers. PMID:22808133

The spatial epidemiology of cocaine, methamphetamine and 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) use: a demonstration using a population measure of community drug load derived from municipal wastewater.

PubMed

Banta-Green, Caleb J; Field, Jennifer A; Chiaia, Aurea C; Sudakin, Daniel L; Power, Laura; de Montigny, Luc

2009-11-01

To determine the utility of community-wide drug testing with wastewater samples as a population measure of community drug use and to test the hypothesis that the association with urbanicity would vary for three different stimulant drugs of abuse. Single-day samples were obtained from a convenience sample of 96 municipalities representing 65% of the population of the State of Oregon. Chemical analysis of 24-hour composite influent samples for benzoylecgonine (BZE, a cocaine metabolite), methamphetamine and 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA). The distribution of community index drug loads accounting for total wastewater flow (i.e. dilution) and population are reported. The distribution of wastewater-derived drug index loads was found to correspond with expected epidemiological drug patterns. Index loads of BZE were significantly higher in urban areas and below detection in many rural areas. Conversely, methamphetamine was present in all municipalities, with no significant differences in index loads by urbanicity. MDMA was at quantifiable levels in fewer than half the communities, with a significant trend towards higher index loads in more urban areas. CONCLUSION; This demonstration provides the first evidence of the utility of wastewater-derived community drug loads for spatial analyses. Such data have the potential to improve dramatically the measurement of the true level and distribution of a range of drugs. Drug index load data provide information for all people in a community and are potentially applicable to a much larger proportion of the total population than existing measures.

Sugar maple: its characteristics and potentials

Treesearch

Ralph D. Nyland

1999-01-01

Sugar maple dominates the northern hardwood forest, but grows over a broader geographic area. Conditions of soil and climate largely limit its distribution, and account for its less continuous cover along fringes of the range. Sugar maple regenerates readily following a wide range of overstory treatments. Success depends upon its status as advance regeneration,...

Distributing stand inventory data and maps over a wide area network

Treesearch

Thomas E. Burk

2000-01-01

High-speed networks connecting multiple levels of management are becoming commonplace among forest resources organizations. Such networks can be used to deliver timely spatial and aspatial data relevant to the management of stands to field personnel. A network infrastructure allows maintenance of cost-effective, centralized databases with the potential for updating by...

A Quantitative Quality Control Model for Parallel and Distributed Crowdsourcing Tasks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhu, Shaojian

2014-01-01

Crowdsourcing is an emerging research area that has experienced rapid growth in the past few years. Although crowdsourcing has demonstrated its potential in numerous domains, several key challenges continue to hinder its application. One of the major challenges is quality control. How can crowdsourcing requesters effectively control the quality…

Current and Future Potential Risk of Establishment of Grapholita molesta (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae) in Washington State

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The oriental fruit moth, Grapholita molesta (Busck) (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is a primary pest of stone fruits in many countries, including the United States. The distribution of this pest is concentrated in areas receiving higher than lower rainfall. It prefers sites where stone fruits and apple...

Forest carbon trends in the Southern United States

Treesearch

Robert A. Mickler; James E. Smith; Linda S. Heath

2004-01-01

Forest, agricultural, rangeland, wetland, and urban landscapes have different rates of carbon (C) sequestration and total C sequestration potential under alternative management options. Future changes in the proportion and spatial distribution of land use could increase or decrease the capacity of areas to sequester C in terrestrial ecosystems. As the ecosystems within...

Landforms, Geology, and Soils of the MOFEP Study Area

Treesearch

Dennis Meinert; Tim Nigh; John Kabrick

1997-01-01

We summarize important landform, geological, and soil characteristics that affect the distribution of plants and animals at the MOFEP sites and that can potentially affect the observed response to MOFEP experimental treatments. The Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project (MOFEP) is located within the Current River Hills Subsection of the Ozark Highlands Section. The...

Could natural selection change the geographic range limits of light brown apple moth (Lepidoptera, Tortricidae) in North America?

Treesearch

Amy C. Morey; Robert C. Venette; William D. Hutchison

2013-01-01

We artificially selected for increased freeze tolerance in the invasive light brown apple moth. Our results suggest that, by not accounting for adaptation to cold, current models of potential geographic distributions could underestimate the areas at risk of exposure to this species.

[Assessment of heavy metal pollution and potential ecological risks of urban soils in Kaifeng City, China].

PubMed

Li, Yi-Meng; Ma, Jian-Hua; Liu, De-Xin; Sun, Yan-Li; Chen, Yan-Fang

2015-03-01

Ninety-nine topsoil (0-15 cm) samples were collected from Kaifeng City, China using the grid method, and then the concentrations of As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn in the samples were measured by standard methods. Soil pollution levels and potential ecological risks of the heavy metals were assessed using the pollution load index (PLI) and potential ecological risk index (RI), respectively. Ordinary Kriging interpolation technique was employed to investigate the spatial distribution of PLI and RI of the city. The results showed that high pollution of Cd occurred in Kaifeng urban soils, and there was moderate pollution of Zn, slight pollution of Pb and Cu, and no pollution of Ni, Cr and As. Very high ecological risk was posed by Cd and low risk by other metals. The mean PLI of the 7 metals from all sample points was 2.53, which was categorized as moderate pollution. The average RI was 344.58 which represented a considerable ecological risk. PLI and RI shared a similar spatial distribution with high values centralized in the old industrial area in the southeast and railway stations for passengers and goods in the south of the city, followed by the old town within the ancient city wall, and low values located in the north and west areas. Cadmium was the main factor for both soil pollution and potential ecological risk primarily due to farmland topsoil in the eastern suburb of Kaifeng City with high Cd concentrations resulted from sewage irrigation deposited in the urban area by wind, human activities such as soot discharged from the chemical fertilizer plant of Kaifeng, transportation and coal combustion.

Delineation of ground water potential zones using GIS and remote sensing - A case study from midland region of Vamanapuram river basin, Kerala, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prasad, Geena; Vinod P., G.; John, Shaleena Elizabeth

2018-04-01

In a highly rugged terrain, shielded by hard crystalline rocks like that of Kerala, locating potential zones of groundwater is found to be an unenviable task. Remote sensing and Geographical information system technologies have been attempted widely to delineate the potential regions in such terrain. Geographical information system tool has been used for delineation of groundwater prospect zones in midland physiographic zone (30-200m) of Vamanapuram river basin. The terrain variables are generated using satellite imageries, SRTM DEM data of 30m resolution and SOI toposheets. The groundwater prospect zones were delineated through the integration of the reclassified raster map layers of geomorphology, slope percent, geology, land use / land cover and soil texture using the weighted overlay analysis in the GIS platform. The groundwater prospects in the study area were grouped into five classes and their distribution are; `very high/high' (8.79%), `moderate' (39.08%), and `very low / low' (52.01%). The study result of the area has been validated with water level data of dug wells and bore wells of the area. The spatial distribution map of the water level of the region is overlaid on groundwater prospect map and shows a positive correlation i.e., the water level at shallow depth in higher prospect zones and at deeper depth in poor to very poor zones. The Groundwater prospect map of midland region of Vamanapuram river basin can be used as base level information which can be further investigated with geophysical methods to locate potential well sites for the execution of water supply schemes.

A tripolar current-steering stimulator ASIC for field shaping in deep brain stimulation.

PubMed

Valente, Virgilio; Demosthenous, Andreas; Bayford, Richard

2012-06-01

A significant problem with clinical deep brain stimulation (DBS) is the high variability of its efficacy and the frequency of side effects, related to the spreading of current beyond the anatomical target area. This is the result of the lack of control that current DBS systems offer on the shaping of the electric potential distribution around the electrode. This paper presents a stimulator ASIC with a tripolar current-steering output stage, aiming at achieving more selectivity and field shaping than current DBS systems. The ASIC was fabricated in a 0.35-μ m CMOS technology occupying a core area of 0.71 mm(2). It consists of three current sourcing/sinking channels. It is capable of generating square and exponential-decay biphasic current pulses with five different time constants up to 28 ms and delivering up to 1.85 mA of cathodic current, in steps of 4 μA, from a 12 V power supply. Field shaping was validated by mapping the potential distribution when injecting current pulses through a multicontact DBS electrode in saline.

Using modelling to predict impacts of sea level rise and increased turbidity on seagrass distributions in estuarine embayments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Davis, Tom R.; Harasti, David; Smith, Stephen D. A.; Kelaher, Brendan P.

2016-11-01

Climate change induced sea level rise will affect shallow estuarine habitats, which are already under threat from multiple anthropogenic stressors. Here, we present the results of modelling to predict potential impacts of climate change associated processes on seagrass distributions. We use a novel application of relative environmental suitability (RES) modelling to examine relationships between variables of physiological importance to seagrasses (light availability, wave exposure, and current flow) and seagrass distributions within 5 estuarine embayments. Models were constructed separately for Posidonia australis and Zostera muelleri subsp. capricorni using seagrass data from Port Stephens estuary, New South Wales, Australia. Subsequent testing of models used independent datasets from four other estuarine embayments (Wallis Lake, Lake Illawarra, Merimbula Lake, and Pambula Lake) distributed along 570 km of the east Australian coast. Relative environmental suitability models provided adequate predictions for seagrass distributions within Port Stephens and the other estuarine embayments, indicating that they may have broad regional application. Under the predictions of RES models, both sea level rise and increased turbidity are predicted to cause substantial seagrass losses in deeper estuarine areas, resulting in a net shoreward movement of seagrass beds. Seagrass species distribution models developed in this study provide a valuable tool to predict future shifts in estuarine seagrass distributions, allowing identification of areas for protection, monitoring and rehabilitation.

Predictions of potential geographical distribution and quality of Schisandra sphenanthera under climate change

PubMed Central

Guo, Yanlong; Lu, Chunyan; Gao, Bei

2016-01-01

Climate change will significantly affect plant distribution as well as the quality of medicinal plants. Although numerous studies have analyzed the effect of climate change on future habitats of plants through species distribution models (SDMs), few of them have incorporated the change of effective content of medicinal plants. Schisandra sphenanthera Rehd. et Wils. is an endangered traditional Chinese medical plant which is mainly located in the Qinling Mountains. Combining fuzzy theory and a maximum entropy model, we obtained current spatial distribution of quality assessment for S. spenanthera. Moreover, the future quality and distribution of S. spenanthera were also projected for the periods 2020s, 2050s and 2080s under three different climate change scenarios (SRES-A1B, SRES-A2 and SRES-B1 emission scenarios) described in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The results showed that the moderately suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera under all climate change scenarios remained relatively stable in the study area. The highly suitable habitat of S. sphenanthera would gradually decrease in the future and a higher decline rate of the highly suitable habitat area would occur under climate change scenarios SRES-A1B and SRES-A2. The result suggested that in the study area, there would be no more highly suitable habitat areas for S. sphenanthera when the annual mean temperature exceeds 20 °C or its annual precipitation exceeds 1,200 mm. Our results will be influential in the future ecological conservation and management of S. sphenanthera and can be taken as a reference for habitat suitability assessment research for other medicinal plants. PMID:27781160

Distribution of Virulence Markers among Vibrio vulnificus Isolates of Clinical and Environmental Origin and Regional Characteristics in Japan

PubMed Central

Yokochi, Nana; Tanaka, Shigemitsu; Matsumoto, Kouichi; Oishi, Hirotaka; Tashiro, Yukihiro; Yoshikane, Yu; Nakashima, Mikio; Kanda, Kohzo; Kobayashi, Genta

2013-01-01

Background Vibrio vulnificus is an opportunistic human pathogen that is widely distributed in estuarine environments and is capable of causing necrotizing fasciitis and sepsis. In Japan, based on epidemiological research, the incidences of V. vulnificus were concentrated in Kyusyu, mainly in coastal areas of the Ariake Sea. To examine the virulence potential, various genotyping methods have recently been developed. This study aimed to investigate the distribution of virulence markers among V. vulnificus isolates of clinical and environmental origin in three coastal areas with different infection incidences and to determine whether these isolates have the siderophore encoding gene viuB. Methodology/Principal Findings We examined the distribution of genotypes of the 16S ribosomal ribonucleic acid (rRNA) gene, vvhA, vcg, and capsular polysaccharide (CPS), and the presence of viuB in 156 isolates collected from patients and environmental samples in Japan. The environmental samples were collected from three coastal areas: the Ariake Sea, Ise & Mikawa Bay, and Karatsu Bay. The results showed disparity in the ratios of genotypes depending on the sample origins. V. vulnificus isolates obtained from patients were classified into the clinical type for all genotypes. In the environmental isolates, the ratios of the clinical type for genotypes of the 16S rRNA gene, vvhA, and vcg were in the order of the Ariake Sea>Ise & Mikawa Bay>Karatsu Bay. Meanwhile, CPS analysis showed no significant difference. Most isolates possessed viuB. Conclusions Many V. vulnificus belonging to the clinical type existed in the Ariake Sea. Three coastal areas with different infection incidences showed distinct ratios of genotypes. This may indicate that the distribution of clinical isolates correlates with the incidence of V. vulnificus infection. PMID:23383115

Using eco-physiological traits to understand the realized niche: the role of desiccation tolerance in Chagas disease vectors.

PubMed

de la Vega, Gerardo J; Schilman, Pablo E

2017-12-01

Small ectotherms, such as insects, with high surface area-to-volume ratios are usually at risk of dehydration in arid environments. We hypothesize that desiccation tolerance in insects could be reflected in their distribution, which is limited by areas with high relative values of water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) (e.g., hot and dry). The main goal of this study was to explore whether incorporation of eco-physiological traits such as desiccation tolerance in arid environments can improve our understanding of species distribution models (SDM). We use a novel eco-physiological approach to understand the distribution and the potential overlap with their fundamental niche in triatomine bugs, Chagas disease vectors. The desiccation dimension for T. infestans, T. delpontei, T. dimidiata, and T. sordida niches seems to extend to very dry areas. For T. vitticeps, xeric areas seem to limit the geographical range of their realized niche. The maximum VPD limits the western and southern distributions of T. vitticeps, T. delpontei, and T. patagonica. All species showed high tolerance to desiccation with survival times (35 °C-RH ~ 15%) ranging from 24 to 38 days, except for T. dimidiata (9 days), which can be explained by a higher water-loss rate, due to a higher cuticular permeability along with a higher critical water content. This approach indicates that most of these triatomine bugs could be exploiting the dryness dimension of their fundamental niche. Incorporating such species-specific traits in studies of distribution, range, and limits under scenarios of changing climate could enhance predictions of movement of disease-causing vectors into novel regions.

Fine-scale tracking and diet information of a marine predator reveals the origin and contrasting spatial distribution of prey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alonso, Hany; Granadeiro, José P.; Dias, Maria P.; Catry, Teresa; Catry, Paulo

2018-03-01

The distribution of many marine organisms is still poorly understood, particularly in oceanic regions. Seabirds, as aerial predators which cover extensive areas across the oceans, can potentially be used to enhance our knowledge on the distribution and abundance of their prey. In this study, we combined tracking data and dietary data from individual Cory's shearwaters Calonectris borealis (n = 68) breeding in Selvagens archipelago, Madeira, Portugal, during the chick-rearing periods of 2011 and 2016, in order to infer prey origin within shearwaters' main foraging areas. The digestion state of each prey item in the diet was assessed and classified; and compared to digestion states from known prey items fed to captive birds. In a novel approach, we combined tracking data with information on the prey digestion duration and data on the transit times from foraging grounds to the colony to estimate the location of prey capture. We found a consistent heterogeneity in prey distribution across four different marine domains: Selvagens, deep-sea, seamounts, and continental shelf. In oceanic areas, the chub mackerel Scomber colias, the main prey of Cory's shearwaters, was strongly associated with seamounts and insular shelves, whereas oceanic species like pilot-fish, flying-squid, flying-fish were clearly associated with deep-sea waters. Sardines Sardina pilchardus, anchovies Engraulis encrasicolus and other coastal species were associated with the African shelf. Prey origin assignment was robust across three different sets of assumptions, and was also supported by information on the digestion state of prey collected over a large independent sampling period (671 samples, collected in 2008-2010). The integration of fine-scale dietary and foraging trip data from marine predators provides a new framework to gain insights into the distribution and abundance of prey species in poorly known oceanic areas.

DNA minor groove electrostatic potential: influence of sequence-specific transitions of the torsion angle gamma and deoxyribose conformations.

PubMed

Zhitnikova, M Y; Shestopalova, A V

2017-11-01

The structural adjustments of the sugar-phosphate DNA backbone (switching of the γ angle (O5'-C5'-C4'-C3') from canonical to alternative conformations and/or C2'-endo → C3'-endo transition of deoxyribose) lead to the sequence-specific changes in accessible surface area of both polar and non-polar atoms of the grooves and the polar/hydrophobic profile of the latter ones. The distribution of the minor groove electrostatic potential is likely to be changing as a result of such conformational rearrangements in sugar-phosphate DNA backbone. Our analysis of the crystal structures of the short free DNA fragments and calculation of their electrostatic potentials allowed us to determine: (1) the number of classical and alternative γ angle conformations in the free B-DNA; (2) changes in the minor groove electrostatic potential, depending on the conformation of the sugar-phosphate DNA backbone; (3) the effect of the DNA sequence on the minor groove electrostatic potential. We have demonstrated that the structural adjustments of the DNA double helix (the conformations of the sugar-phosphate backbone and the minor groove dimensions) induce changes in the distribution of the minor groove electrostatic potential and are sequence-specific. Therefore, these features of the minor groove sizes and distribution of minor groove electrostatic potential can be used as a signal for recognition of the target DNA sequence by protein in the implementation of the indirect readout mechanism.

Analytical study of the performance of a geomembrane leak detection system.

PubMed

Lugli, Francesco; Mahler, Claudio Fernando

2016-05-01

The electrical detection of leaks in geomembranes is a method that allows identifying leakage of contaminants in lined facilities (e.g. sanitary landfills, pollutant ponds, etc.). The procedure in the field involves placing electrodes above and below the geomembrane, to generate an electrical current, which in turn engenders an electric potential distribution in the protective layer (generally a clayey soil). The electric potential will be greater in areas with higher current density, i.e. near leaks. In this study, we combined models from the literature to carry out a parametric analysis to identify the variables that most influence the amplitude of the electrical signals produced by leaks. The basic hypothesis is that the electrical conduction phenomena in a liner system could be depicted by a direct current circuit. After determining the value of the current at the leak, we calculated the electric potential distribution according to the model of Darilek and Laine. This enabled analysing the sensitivity of the parameters, which can be useful in the design of landfills and facilitate the location of leaks. This study showed that geomembranes with low electrical resistance (owing to low thickness, low resistivity, or extensive area) can hinder the leak detection process. In contrast, low thickness and high resistivity of the protection layer magnify the leak signal. © The Author(s) 2016.

Modeling potential habitats for alien species Dreissena polymorpha in continental USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mingyang, Li; Yunwei, Ju; Kumar, Sunil; Stohlgren, Thomas J.

2008-01-01

The effective measure to minimize the damage of invasive species is to block the potential invasive species to enter into suitable areas. 1864 occurrence points with GPS coordinates and 34 environmental variables from Daymet datasets were gathered, and 4 modeling methods, i.e., Logistic Regression (LR), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Prediction (GARP), and maximum entropy method (Maxent), were introduced to generate potential geographic distributions for invasive species Dreissena polymorpha in Continental USA. Then 3 statistical criteria of the area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (AUC), Pearson correlation (COR) and Kappa value were calculated to evaluate the performance of the models, followed by analyses on major contribution variables. Results showed that in terms of the 3 statistical criteria, the prediction results of the 4 ecological niche models were either excellent or outstanding, in which Maxent outperformed the others in 3 aspects of predicting current distribution habitats, selecting major contribution factors, and quantifying the influence of environmental variables on habitats. Distance to water, elevation, frequency of precipitation and solar radiation were 4 environmental forcing factors. The method suggested in the paper can have some reference meaning for modeling habitats of alien species in China and provide a direction to prevent Mytilopsis sallei on the Chinese coast line.

The Use of Ecological Niche Modeling to Infer Potential Risk Areas of Snakebite in the Mexican State of Veracruz

PubMed Central

Yañez-Arenas, Carlos; Peterson, A. Townsend; Mokondoko, Pierre; Rojas-Soto, Octavio; Martínez-Meyer, Enrique

2014-01-01

Background Many authors have claimed that snakebite risk is associated with human population density, human activities, and snake behavior. Here we analyzed whether environmental suitability of vipers can be used as an indicator of snakebite risk. We tested several hypotheses to explain snakebite incidence, through the construction of models incorporating both environmental suitability and socioeconomic variables in Veracruz, Mexico. Methodology/Principal Findings Ecological niche modeling (ENM) was used to estimate potential geographic and ecological distributions of nine viper species' in Veracruz. We calculated the distance to the species' niche centroid (DNC); this distance may be associated with a prediction of abundance. We found significant inverse relationships between snakebites and DNCs of common vipers (Crotalus simus and Bothrops asper), explaining respectively 15% and almost 35% of variation in snakebite incidence. Additionally, DNCs for these two vipers, in combination with marginalization of human populations, accounted for 76% of variation in incidence. Conclusions/Significance Our results suggest that niche modeling and niche-centroid distance approaches can be used to mapping distributions of environmental suitability for venomous snakes; combining this ecological information with socioeconomic factors may help with inferring potential risk areas for snakebites, since hospital data are often biased (especially when incidences are low). PMID:24963989

Cuvier's Beaked Whale, Ziphius cavirostris, Distribution and Occurrence in the Mediterranean Sea: High-Use Areas and Conservation Threats.

PubMed

Podestà, M; Azzellino, A; Cañadas, A; Frantzis, A; Moulins, A; Rosso, M; Tepsich, P; Lanfredi, C

Cuvier's beaked whale (Ziphius cavirostris G. Cuvier, 1823) is the only beaked whale species commonly found in the Mediterranean Sea. Until recently, species presence in this area was only inferred from stranding events. Dedicated cetacean surveys have increased our knowledge of the distribution of Cuvier's beaked whales, even though many areas still remain unexplored. Here, we present an updated analysis of available sighting and stranding data, focusing on the atypical mass strandings that have occurred in the Mediterranean Sea since 1963. We describe in detail the five more recent events (2006-14), highlighting their relationship with naval exercises that used mid-frequency active sonar. The distribution of the species is apparently characterized by areas of high density where animals seem to be relatively abundant, including the Alborán Sea, Ligurian Sea, Central Tyrrhenian Sea, southern Adriatic Sea and the Hellenic Trench, but other such areas may exist where little or no survey work has been conducted. Population size has been estimated for the Alborán and Ligurian seas. Habitat modelling studies for those areas, confirmed the species preference for the continental slope and its particular association with submarine canyons, as has also been found to be the case in other areas of the world. The application of results from habitat modelling to areas different from their calibration sites is proposed as a management tool for minimizing the potential impacts of human activities at sea. Military sonar is known worldwide as a threat for this species and is suggested to be a major threat for Cuvier's beaked whale in the Mediterranean Sea. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Substrate Variations and its Relationship and Impact on the Distribution of Eelgrass Beds in Griffin Bay, Washington

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sopha, A.; Greene, H.; Wyllie-Echeverria, S.; Harmsen, F. J.

2010-12-01

Eelgrass is considered an important indicator species for the health of the oceans; it provides nearshore habitat to many marine organisms and also acts as a source of protection for migrating populations of juvenile salmon and other fish species including forage fish. Since the late 1980s, there has been a drastic decline in eelgrass beds within the surrounding marine areas of Washington State; specifically in the species Zostera marina. Previous studies have focused on potential impacts such as bacterial infections and loss of sunlight from docks, shoreline tree canopy overgrowth and permanently anchored boats. In specific locations, sawmill waste has prevented the regeneration of eelgrass. In this study, sediment samples, along with video transects, were collected from Griffin Bay, Washington, located within the San Juan Archipelago to determine if substrate conditions have any impact on the distribution, appearance, disappearance, and health of the eelgrass beds. Initial findings indicate that in fact, eelgrass is increasing with growth beyond the area in which their distribution was previously documented. This is in contrast to other areas where eelgrass is in decline. Final results have yet to be analyzed.

Biosocial correlates and spatial distribution of consanguinity in South America.

PubMed

Bronberg, Ruben; Gili, Juan; Gimenez, Lucas; Dipierri, Jose; Lopez Camelo, Jorge

2016-05-01

To analyze potential biosocial factors in consanguineous unions according to the level of consanguinity and its spatial distribution in South America. The data used came from the Latin American Collaborative Study of Congenital Malformations. Information on 126,213 nonmalformed newborns out of 6,014,749 births was used. This information was collected between 1967 and 2011 at 204 hospitals in 116 cities in 10 South American countries. The spatial scan statistic was performed under a model of nonhierarchical k-means segmentation, based on statistically significant clusters, areas with levels of high, medium, and low consanguinity were determined. Consanguinity in South America is heterogeneously distributed, with two groups of high consanguinity, in northwestern Venezuela and southeast of Brazil, and two clusters of low consanguinity located in the south of the continent, mainly Argentina. The socio-demographic factors associated with consanguinity influence the population structure in areas of high consanguinity. This study demonstrates that consanguinity in the South American continent is strongly associated with a greater magnitude of poverty in the area of high consanguinity. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 28:405-411, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Spatial analysis techniques applied to uranium prospecting in Chihuahua State, Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hinojosa de la Garza, Octavio R.; Montero Cabrera, María Elena; Sanín, Luz H.; Reyes Cortés, Manuel; Martínez Meyer, Enrique

2014-07-01

To estimate the distribution of uranium minerals in Chihuahua, the advanced statistical model "Maximun Entropy Method" (MaxEnt) was applied. A distinguishing feature of this method is that it can fit more complex models in case of small datasets (x and y data), as is the location of uranium ores in the State of Chihuahua. For georeferencing uranium ores, a database from the United States Geological Survey and workgroup of experts in Mexico was used. The main contribution of this paper is the proposal of maximum entropy techniques to obtain the mineral's potential distribution. For this model were used 24 environmental layers like topography, gravimetry, climate (worldclim), soil properties and others that were useful to project the uranium's distribution across the study area. For the validation of the places predicted by the model, comparisons were done with other research of the Mexican Service of Geological Survey, with direct exploration of specific areas and by talks with former exploration workers of the enterprise "Uranio de Mexico". Results. New uranium areas predicted by the model were validated, finding some relationship between the model predictions and geological faults. Conclusions. Modeling by spatial analysis provides additional information to the energy and mineral resources sectors.

Faunistic Inventory of Spheciformes Wasps at Three Protected Areas in Portugal

PubMed Central

Vieira, L. C.; Oliveira, N. G.; Brewster, C. C.; Gayubo, S. F.

2013-01-01

The importance of considering insects in the protection of biodiversity has been recently recognized. However, despite the importance of Spheciformes wasps (Hymenoptera: Ampulicidae, Sphecidae and Crabronidae) in natural ecosystems and their potential as bioindicators, the Spheciformes communities in Portugal (part of the European biodiversity hotspot) have rarely been studied, and data for Portuguese protected areas are scarce. The Spheciformes wasp communities at 3 protected areas in Portugal, Douro International Natural Park, Serras de Aire e Candeeiros Natural Park, and Paúl do Boquilobo Nature Reserve, were studied in 2000 and 2001. During the study, 134 species of Spheciformes belonging to 3 families, Ampulicidae, Sphecidae, and Crabronidae, were identified. The species collected constituted nearly 1/3 of the species known in the Iberian Peninsula, 42 were new records for Portugal. Additionally, several specimens of 6 potentially new species were collected. Douro International Natural Park had the highest species richness, followed by Serras de Aire e Candeeiros Natural Park and Paúl do Boquilobo Nature Reserve. All the protected areas studied had species that were found exclusively at an individual protected area and species that were found to be new records for Portugal. Based on the literature review of the geographic distribution, nidification types, and prey orders, it was found that most species collected had a Euroasiatic or Mediterranean distribution, species with fossorial habits predominated, and the orders/suborders of insects preyed upon by most species were Diptera, Orthoptera, Sternorrhyncha, and Auchenorrhyncha. This study underscores the importance of including the protected areas studied in the conservation of Spheciformes diversity and also suggests that insect diversity should be studied separately, as it does not necessarily follow the same patterns as other, more studied, groups. PMID:24738990

Spatial patterns of carbon, biodiversity, deforestation threat, and REDD+ projects in Indonesia.

PubMed

Murray, Josil P; Grenyer, Richard; Wunder, Sven; Raes, Niels; Jones, Julia P G

2015-10-01

There are concerns that Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) may fail to deliver potential biodiversity cobenefits if it is focused on high carbon areas. We explored the spatial overlaps between carbon stocks, biodiversity, projected deforestation threats, and the location of REDD+ projects in Indonesia, a tropical country at the forefront of REDD+ development. For biodiversity, we assembled data on the distribution of terrestrial vertebrates (ranges of amphibians, mammals, birds, reptiles) and plants (species distribution models for 8 families). We then investigated congruence between different measures of biodiversity richness and carbon stocks at the national and subnational scales. Finally, we mapped active REDD+ projects and investigated the carbon density and potential biodiversity richness and modeled deforestation pressures within these forests relative to protected areas and unprotected forests. There was little internal overlap among the different hotspots (richest 10% of cells) of species richness. There was also no consistent spatial congruence between carbon stocks and the biodiversity measures: a weak negative correlation at the national scale masked highly variable and nonlinear relationships island by island. Current REDD+ projects were preferentially located in areas with higher total species richness and threatened species richness but lower carbon densities than protected areas and unprotected forests. Although a quarter of the total area of these REDD+ projects is under relatively high deforestation pressure, the majority of the REDD+ area is not. In Indonesia at least, first-generation REDD+ projects are located where they are likely to deliver biodiversity benefits. However, if REDD+ is to deliver additional gains for climate and biodiversity, projects will need to focus on forests with the highest threat to deforestation, which will have cost implications for future REDD+ implementation. © 2015 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of Society for Conservation Biology.

Are fish outside their usual ranges early indicators of climate-driven range shifts?

PubMed

Fogarty, Hannah E; Burrows, Michael T; Pecl, Gretta T; Robinson, Lucy M; Poloczanska, Elvira S

2017-05-01

Shifts in species ranges are a global phenomenon, well known to occur in response to a changing climate. New species arriving in an area may become pest species, modify ecosystem structure, or represent challenges or opportunities for fisheries and recreation. Early detection of range shifts and prompt implementation of any appropriate management strategies is therefore crucial. This study investigates whether 'first sightings' of marine species outside their normal ranges could provide an early warning of impending climate-driven range shifts. We examine the relationships between first sightings and marine regions defined by patterns of local climate velocities (calculated on a 50-year timescale), while also considering the distribution of observational effort (i.e. number of sampling days recorded with biological observations in global databases). The marine trajectory regions include climate 'source' regions (areas lacking connections to warmer areas), 'corridor' regions (areas where moving isotherms converge), and 'sink' regions (areas where isotherms locally disappear). Additionally, we investigate the latitudinal band in which first sightings were recorded, and species' thermal affiliations. We found that first sightings are more likely to occur in climate sink and 'divergent' regions (areas where many rapid and diverging climate trajectories pass through) indicating a role of temperature in driving changes in marine species distributions. The majority of our fish first sightings appear to be tropical and subtropical species moving towards high latitudes, as would be expected in climate warming. Our results indicate that first sightings are likely related to longer-term climatic processes, and therefore have potential use to indicate likely climate-driven range shifts. The development of an approach to detect impending range shifts at an early stage will allow resource managers and researchers to better manage opportunities resulting from range-shifting species before they potentially colonize. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Using sequential indicator simulation method to define risk areas of soil heavy metals in farmland.

PubMed

Yang, Hao; Song, Ying Qiang; Hu, Yue Ming; Chen, Fei Xiang; Zhang, Rui

2018-05-01

The heavy metals in soil have serious impacts on safety, ecological environment and human health due to their toxicity and accumulation. It is necessary to efficiently identify the risk area of heavy metals in farmland soil, which is of important significance for environment protection, pollution warning and farmland risk control. We collected 204 samples and analyzed the contents of seven kinds of heavy metals (Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Cr, As, Hg) in Zengcheng District of Guangzhou, China. In order to overcame the problems of the data, including the limitation of abnormal values and skewness distribution and the smooth effect with the traditional kriging methods, we used sequential indicator simulation method (SISIM) to define the spatial distribution of heavy metals, and combined Hakanson index method to identify potential ecological risk area of heavy metals in farmland. The results showed that: (1) Based on the similar accuracy of spatial prediction of soil heavy metals, the SISIM had a better expression of detail rebuild than ordinary kriging in small scale area. Compared to indicator kriging, the SISIM had less error rate (4.9%-17.1%) in uncertainty evaluation of heavy-metal risk identification. The SISIM had less smooth effect and was more applicable to simulate the spatial uncertainty assessment of soil heavy metals and risk identification. (2) There was no pollution in Zengcheng's farmland. Moderate potential ecological risk was found in the southern part of study area due to enterprise production, human activities, and river sediments. This study combined the sequential indicator simulation with Hakanson risk index method, and effectively overcame the outlier information loss and smooth effect of traditional kriging method. It provided a new way to identify the soil heavy metal risk area of farmland in uneven sampling.

Mitigating Interconnection Challenges of the High Penetration Utility-Interconnected Photovoltaic (PV) in the Electrical Distribution Systems: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-14-563

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chakraborty, Sudipta

Various interconnection challenges exist when connecting distributed PV into the electrical distribution grid in terms of safety, reliability, and stability of the electric power systems. Some of the urgent areas for research, as identified by inverter manufacturers, installers and utilities, are potential for transient overvoltage from PV inverters, multi-inverter anti-islanding, impact of smart inverters on volt-VAR support, impact of bidirectional power flow, and potential for distributed generation curtailment solutions to mitigate grid stability challenges. Under this project, NREL worked with SolarCity to address these challenges through research, testing and analysis at the Energy System Integration Facility (ESIF). Inverters from differentmore » manufacturers were tested at ESIF and NREL's unique power hardware-in-the-loop (PHIL) capability was utilized to evaluate various system-level impacts. Through the modeling, simulation, and testing, this project eliminated critical barriers on high PV penetration and directly supported the Department of Energy's SunShot goal of increasing the solar PV on the electrical grid.« less

Reduction of spatial distribution of risk factors for transportation of contaminants released by coal mining activities.

PubMed

Karan, Shivesh Kishore; Samadder, Sukha Ranjan

2016-09-15

It is reported that water-energy nexus composes two of the biggest development and human health challenges. In the present study we presented a Risk Potential Index (RPI) model which encapsulates Source, Vector (Transport), and Target risks for forecasting surface water contamination. The main aim of the model is to identify critical surface water risk zones for an open cast mining environment, taking Jharia Coalfield, India as the study area. The model also helps in feasible sampling design. Based on spatial analysis various risk zones were successfully delineated. Monthly RPI distribution revealed that the risk of surface water contamination was highest during the monsoon months. Surface water samples were analysed to validate the model. A GIS based alternative management option was proposed to reduce surface water contamination risk and observed 96% and 86% decrease in the spatial distribution of very high risk areas for the months June and July respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GIS-based environmental analysis of fox and canine lungworm distribution: an epidemiological study of Angiostrongylus vasorum and Crenosoma vulpis in red foxes from Slovakia.

PubMed

Čabanová, Viktória; Miterpáková, Martina; Druga, Michal; Hurníková, Zuzana; Valentová, Daniela

2018-02-01

Over a period of intervening years, the distribution of two canine cardiopulmonary metastrongylid nematodes, Angiostrongylus vasorum and Crenosoma vulpis, has been recognised in Central Europe. Here, we report the first epidemiological research conducted in red foxes from Slovakia and the potential influence of selected environmental variables on the parasites' occurrence, quantified by logistic regression. The environmental models revealed that distribution of C. vulpis is not significantly influenced by any environmental variables, and the parasite is present in the whole area under study. Models for A. vasorum revealed some weak influence of environmental variables, as it tends to occur in drier areas with lower proportion of forest. Moreover, A. vasorum shows a typical spatial clustering and occurs in endemic foci identified mainly in the eastern part of Slovakia. A cluster of A. vasorum infection foci was also found in the north-eastern region, where the average winter air temperature regularly falls below - 10 °C.

Geologic Mapping of the Lunar South Pole Quadrangle (LQ-30)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mest, S. C.; Berman, D. C.; Petro, N. E.

2010-01-01

In this study we use recent image, spectral and topographic data to map the geology of the lunar South Pole quadrangle (LQ-30) at 1:2.5M scale [1-7]. The overall objective of this research is to constrain the geologic evolution of LQ-30 (60 -90 S, 0 - 180 ) with specific emphasis on evaluation of a) the regional effects of impact basin formation, and b) the spatial distribution of ejecta, in particular resulting from formation of the South Pole-Aitken (SPA) basin and other large basins. Key scientific objectives include: 1) Determining the geologic history of LQ-30 and examining the spatial and temporal variability of geologic processes within the map area. 2) Constraining the distribution of impact-generated materials, and determining the timing and effects of major basin-forming impacts on crustal structure and stratigraphy in the map area. And 3) assessing the distribution of potential resources (e.g., H, Fe, Th) and their relationships with surface materials.

Development of a distributed air pollutant dry deposition modeling framework.

PubMed

Hirabayashi, Satoshi; Kroll, Charles N; Nowak, David J

2012-12-01

A distributed air pollutant dry deposition modeling system was developed with a geographic information system (GIS) to enhance the functionality of i-Tree Eco (i-Tree, 2011). With the developed system, temperature, leaf area index (LAI) and air pollutant concentration in a spatially distributed form can be estimated, and based on these and other input variables, dry deposition of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO(2)), sulfur dioxide (SO(2)), and particulate matter less than 10 microns (PM10) to trees can be spatially quantified. Employing nationally available road network, traffic volume, air pollutant emission/measurement and meteorological data, the developed system provides a framework for the U.S. city managers to identify spatial patterns of urban forest and locate potential areas for future urban forest planting and protection to improve air quality. To exhibit the usability of the framework, a case study was performed for July and August of 2005 in Baltimore, MD. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.